Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
804 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US AND MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD NEAR THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
755 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTING LOWER DEW POINT AIR TO PUSH EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL PRESS IN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING.
COOLER WITH INCREASING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US AND MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD NEAR THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WITH A THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT BRINGING THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES. LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING BELOW 10 KFT AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD DIVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRIES ALL AREAS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY MUCH OF THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS INTENSIFYING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN TIER AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING TEMPS DOWN THROUGH MID DAY. BUT WITH WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL BLENDS SMOOTH OUT THE HIGHER WINDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE WINDIER SOLUTION AND WILL INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE GET SOME BRIEF RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HAVE HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS DUE IN THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE BOUNCING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HELPING TO BRING MIN TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY CONTINUES INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND AS IT DOES SO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. LCLS WILL BE VERY LOW AND THE WARM FRONT/TRIPLE-POINT NEARING GIVE RISE TO CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAXES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
633 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
529 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE SWINGING THROUGH MINNESOTA WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARMER GROUND AND RELATIVELY WARM NEAR SURFACE LAYER STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING ON GRASSY AREAS. SINCE WE REMAIN MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN CWA LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. AND ALTHOUGH BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
Clear skies and a ridge overhead have lead to patchy valley fog in the northern Rockies this morning. By late morning or the early afternoon, the sun will help mix the lower atmosphere enough to end the foggy conditions. A low pressure system will begin entering the region by early morning Thursday.
420 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 A cold front is currently moving southward across the Permian Basin with gusty winds behind it. This front is a result of an upper trough over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. High temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to this frontal passage. An upper trough currently just off the northwest coast is expected to deepen and move southeastward over the Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday with highs mostly in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
338 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WERE NOTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS NOT CLEARED THE AREA AND THEREFORE ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TONIGHT.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. WITH SELY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR. AN UPR LVL TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SW CONUS ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SWLY AND USHERING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN ZONES LATE FRI AS LIFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPR TROF.
454 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move rapidly into West Central Texas this morning, shifting the winds to the north at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph especially across the Big Country. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the cold front with highs ranging from the lower 70s north of I20 to the mid to upper 70s south.
441 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LARGE-SCALE ANALYSIS -- GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MOISTURE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF BASIN AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION PROCEEDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. A DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO RIDGES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE WHICH WAS OVER LOUISIANA LAST NIGHT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER DEVELOPING WAVE CYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVAILING WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC/DIFLUENT FLOW TRAJECTORIES. A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE APPROACHES.
FOR 06Z TAFS A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL. ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF. BY WEDNESDAY THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ARND 16Z AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH TOP-END GUSTS JUST MAKING IT TO NEAR 50MPH ON ONLY THE HIGHEST HILLS. AS MAIN PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FINAL PUSH OF DRIEST AIR SHOULD COME BY MID-DAY THURS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WIND DIRECTION IS SLOWLY TURNING TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING AS LONG AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS IN THE VICINITY. WE WILL SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY.
246 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 The 00Z guidance is in reasonable agreement in pivoting a mid/upper-level trough northeast through the region through 18Z today, and effectively pushing the tangible rain/TS northeast and east of our region mostly by 12Z. As this trough reaches Wisconsin it will carve out a very intense and compact upper low. Energy rotating around the low may touch off a few showers or even thunderstorms very late this afternoon or this evening over the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
A broad upper level trough continues to dominate much of central and eastern North America this morning. One short wave trough is lifting across the Tennessee Valley while another is diving across the Southern Plains in the base of the long wave. Surface analysis shows remnant stationary front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, left over from an occluded low that merged a larger area of low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Area radars continue to show a few bands of light rain showers rotating around the low across the forecast area. Max temps will be in the upper 70s west to the lower 80s east.
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL COME AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AS SE OREGON BEGINS TO DRY OUT AND CLEAR. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS SW IDAHO. RIDGING ALOFT AND DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT.
A deep mid level cyclone will be maturing today across the Midwest with a fairly pronounced cold airmass spreading south and east across the Northern Plains. This airmass will be cold enough for freezing temperatures across portions of west-central KS.
The prominent features to note this period include an upper level trough extending into central Kansas moving east through the area tonight. With more breaks in the cloud cover this morning, high temperatures were adjusted slightly warmer in western half of the CWA than in the east, ranging from the low 60s to mid 50s. With the final push of the trough early tomorrow morning, skies will begin to clear and rain chances are expected to end. As for temperatures, should see temperatures make their way into the low 60s as mostly sunny skies will allow for strong diurnal heating. Reinforcing cold front passes Wednesday night with decent low level lift but limited moisture. Have lowered temps a bit but, bringing lows to near freezing. Have lowered temps here as well and we could again approach freezing in lighter winds.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY FOR RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
1131 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE NW MT TOP WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45KT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFT 28/09Z AS SHORT WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER NM. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A broad upper level trough continues to dominate much of central and eastern North America this morning. One short wave trough is pushing across the Lower Mississippi Valley while another is diving across the Southern High Plains toward the base of the long wave. Surface analysis shows an occluded low continuing to fill as it lifts northward into the mid Mississippi Valley where it is being absorbed by another area of low pressure over Missouri. Astationary front bisects the forecast area with a warm front extending from a triple point near Lake Seminole. Area radars continue to show a few bands of light rain showers rotating around the low across the western half of the forecast area. Max temps will be in the upper 70s west to the lower 80s east.
344 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE SWINGING THROUGH MINNESOTA WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARMER GROUND AND RELATIVELY WARM NEAR SURFACE LAYER STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING ON GRASSY AREAS. SINCE WE REMAIN MIXED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN CWA LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. AND ALTHOUGH BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD.
321 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT STILL POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. 20 REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A deep mid level cyclone will be maturing today across the Midwest with a fairly pronounced cold airmass spreading south and east across the Northern Plains. This airmass will be cold enough for freezing temperatures across portions of west-central KS. Cold high pressure at the surface will push into western Kansas by morning with light and variable winds becoming light north. Models showing some cold temps around freezing by early Thursday morning, but may not be as cold as the NAM model with increasing clouds. Superblend model output also gave lows just above freezing.
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS THE HIGHEST. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY WET GROUND.
314 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GUSTY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MANITOBA THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER COULD SKIM OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE GROWERS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS. DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 50S.
353 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALBERTA POISED TO PLUNGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTING RECYCLED COLD AIR AROUND THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
CLOUDS AND LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONTANA ON THURSDAY.
THE MOST UNSURE ASPECT OF THE CURRENT TAFS WILL BE THE EFFECT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOMORROW. IF THIS WEAK COLD FRONT PENETRATES FARTHER INTO THE BRO CWFA THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND WEDNESDAY AND WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE VALLEY AERODROMES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG THE REMAINING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. IN THE LOWER 70S.
419 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move rapidly into West Central Texas this morning, shifting the winds to the north at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph especially across the Big Country. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the cold front with highs ranging from the lower 70s north of I20 to the mid to upper 70s south.
409 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE TROP UNDULATION WITH 220-250 METER HEIGHT FALL TRACK INTO CENTRAL LAKES WILL DRIVE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN TO START THIS PERIOD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK SO ONLY POP MENTION CONFINED TO FAR NORTH WITH COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER LIFT/CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO UPPER LOW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
310 AM PDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT.
Winds will become gusty at 15 to 30 mph with an associated cold front. For Wednesday, expect clearing skies behind the upper wave and highs in the low to mid 60s. Cold high pressure at the surface will push into western Kansas by morning with light and variable winds becoming light north. Models showing some cold temps around freezing by early Thursday morning, but may not be as cold as the NAM model with increasing clouds. Superblend model output also gave lows just above freezing.
SHALLOW TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CONTINUE TO WATCH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRATUS DECK ON ITS HEELS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW TEMP FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
338 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE. SOME OF THIS MAY MIX DOWN WITH DOWNSLOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT AS THE FLOW WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGES. EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME OF FROPA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PASSAGE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGHING AND SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD KEEP LOW PRECIP CHANCES N OF I 80 THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT ANY RATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE LOWER AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND.
Fog will likely not clear until late morning or early afternoon after the sun has a chance to mix the lower atmosphere. High pressure has begun to build into western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon, largely bringing an end to shower activity. Areas of fog could cause some slick spots on bridges/overpasses for the morning commute, especially in valleys of western Montana where morning temperature could dip into the mid 20s, and even colder along the Continental Divide.
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CORE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMES MORE PATCHY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI AFTER 06Z TNGT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER LAKE HURON AROUND 12Z THU AND SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE WE SEE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO N TX. SHOULD SEE VEERING WINDS AT THE SFC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FROPA EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING AND ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTN. VERTICAL ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS ACROSS SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH.
Wave will quickly move east with associated cold front sweeping through by this afternoon. Drier air will then move in tonight with low temps noticeably cooler. The dry air will be in place as upper low approaches from the west late Thursday.
AS AN ADDITIONAL WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A TRANSITION TO MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT IS EXPECTED THU THRU AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI. ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES PER CLOUD COVERAGE DEPTH. RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU PER REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE POTENTIAL TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. BUT AS CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WITH HIGHS ON FRI ONLY IN THE LOW 60S.
Cold front moving thru Panhandle has a good push with 3hr pressure rises of 7mb/hr, solid winds of 20-30kt observed in the isallobaric gradient.