Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 408 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ The cold front that pushed through the CWA yesterday is now stalled across central/southern GA. Behind the front, drier, cooler air has settled in, bringing a respite from the soupy summer air that has plagued north and central GA lately.
RMS A strong upper ridge will result in another quite warm and mainly dry afternoon today. A weak impulse moving over the ridge will send a weak cold front down across our area late today. CAMS (convective allowing models) have been focusing convection from the Beartooths to the Pryors and Big Horns late in the day, so we have the highest PoPs in these areas. For Thursday, short wave energy out of Canada will track into the high plains late in the day. Enjoy the cooler, but still above normal temperature, this weekend.
VFR flight categories expected through the period, with only high clouds and light winds as high pressure builds into the region. The air mass is pretty dry so despite the trough passing through, expect dry conditions to prevail. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s but humidity will be low so it will feel great for late June.
Hot and humid conditions will be the result as high pressure strengthens overhead and temperatures climb into the 90s the next few afternoons. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ Water vapor imagery indicates an upper low approaching the California Coast and an upper trough planted across the Northeast. Between these 2 features, large scale anticyclonic flow reveals the presence of a mid/upper ridge covering the Rockies and Southern Plains.
710 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will dominate the region's weather over the next few days, leading to dry conditions with a gradual warming trend through the end of the week.
18z surface map placed high pressure over the mid Atlantic and a low pressure trof along the High Plains. Lingering effects of the departing ridge have kept dewpoints seasonably low in the 50s this afternoon but these will be on the increase tonight and Thursday as flow up from the Gulf gets firmly established over the Midwest.
The risk for severe thunderstorms remains in the forecast as a cold front pushes through the area this evening. Through the day, moisture will advect northward, with most upstream dew point values right now in the low 50s. Modification of the boundary layer moisture, and pooling along the cold front would provide the opportunity for dew point values into the mid-upper 50s within some areas of the warm sector, ahead of the cold fropa. Slight cooler temperatures on Thursday with weak ridging leading to mainly quiet weather. Shower and storm chances rapidly decrease midway through the period as a rather strong signal for ridging puts us in perpetual northerly to northwesterly flow within a dry airmass.
Thus, rain chances should start to trend down in the short term with a weak inverted mid level trough moving west and being absorbed as mid level ridging builds over the area on Thursday and Thursday night.
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper level ridging remains squarely in place overhead through this evening which will help temperatures warm to near the century mark. Upper level ridging will begin to flatten tomorrow as a trough moves out of British Columbia and sinks into the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, this won't change sensible weather much across our region as ridging will remain in place and hence temperatures will still warm back up to near the century mark.
229 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Fair weather will continue through Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the north.
1032 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure of continental origin is located to the NE of the region this morning and will continue to bring dry conditions to our area today with continued low dew points/RH. Winds aloft will begin to diminish on Thursday/Thursday night, as a subtropical ridge centered across the Red River Valley of OK/TX begins to expand eastward into the region. Related moisture advection in the lower troposphere will allow precipitable water values to increase into the 1.
Above average temperatures are expected by late week under building ridge.
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure builds across the local area through tonight. An area of low pressure moves north along the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday. A trough of low pressure lingers across the region through the upcoming weekend. The strong cold front that moved through the area yesterday has stalled southeast of the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient will tighten between the high pressure to the north and the developing low pressure as it moves north.
Second, there is an inverted mid-level trough that is making its way westward through the Bahamas, to the south of the Bermuda high.
245 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Although it is windy across to the area thanks to a cold front moving through, winds gusts were not handled very well in the models for this afternoon. Fire weather concerns continue into Thursday ahead of the front as relative humidity decreases early into the lower 20s for the southern zones, but stronger winds are expected once the front passes. A very slow moving ridge to the west will make its way eastward over the weekend. Temperatures will return to the 90s and continue to trend warmer.
1155 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front drops south of the area this morning. Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north this afternoon into Thursday with below normal temperatures.
134 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will push south of the area today, allowing a little drier air to overspread the area through Thursday.
Under sunny skies with warm south winds, temperatures have already warmed into the upper 70s to the lower 80s late this morning.
Upper ridging is crossing the Rockies from NM to MT, as an upper low just offshore the CA remain stationary. A cold front will push south across the CWA tonight.
A break in the action during the day on Thursday with continued warm conditions before a northern stream upper trof pulls away from the cutoff along the west coast and brings a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday evening into Thursday night.
The first along a cold front over north central Iowa. The other area of focus will be on an advancing warm front that should still be over northern Missouri after the morning convection cold pool erodes.
A few showers are occuring mainly along the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon and expect this activity to continue into the evening hours. High temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday, with highs in the low 90s over much of the area.
251 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 The area remains on the northern edge of an upper level ridge with another wave expected to move across tonight.
High pressure in the mid-levels builds east to cover all of TX for Thursday, and no mentionable chance of rain will be considered.
The upper level pattern is characterized by broad troughing across the Eastern CONUS with a ridge extending from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, there is an E-W front located along the northern Gulf Coast with high pressure centered across the Mid- Atlantic. Easterly to southeasterly flow around this high is helping to advect in drier air into the region. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low 50s to low 60s. However, moisture does increase slightly as the high shifts further to the east and southerly winds develop at 850 mb. Overnight lows will be on the cool side for late June in the low to mid 60s for most locations. There is a weak northwesterly flow trough that will move through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday.
259 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week. The near term period will continue to be dry and quiet with high pressure over the region. Overnight, the center of the high pressure moves east and out to sea. With the center of the high pressure to the east, a ridge moves into the region during the morning hours. As a result, the flow becomes more southerly, bringing warmer air into the region.
Gusty southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon, with gust up into the lower 30 mph range, with occasional upper 30 mph possible due to a tightening surface gradient plus mixing into a 35-40 kt low-level jet (LLJ).
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather.
118 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm.
A fairly stationary upper level low pressure system over the CA coast is causing southwesterly flow to pull moisture from the south into the region. The northern part of the trof separates from the south low and ejects east over the northern Rockies starting on Thursday. In addition a jet max rounding the southern part of the low will push into the Four Corners. Temperatures will also be modified and about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the past few days which is a much welcome change indeed. Storms will continue into Thursday night with the jet nudging farther over our forecast area and the southern part of the trof axis over the northern mountains of western Colorado.
Light steering flows aloft will generally limit thunderstorm development over the higher terrain.
355 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue to shift south of the area tonight.
With these enhances dew points and temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s, heat indices are expected to reach into the lower to upper 90s with a few locations possibly reaching 100. Additionally, mid level heights will build as upper ridge expands from southwest TX and thermal profiles will warm accordingly.
High pressure of continental origin is located to the NE of the region this morning and will continue to bring dry conditions to our area today with continued low dew points/RH. Winds aloft will begin to diminish on Thursday/Thursday night, as a subtropical ridge centered across the Red River Valley of OK/TX begins to expand eastward into the region. Related moisture advection in the lower troposphere will allow precipitable water values to increase into the 1.
Otherwise, the biggest concern for this period is the low level shear tonight at all three terminals as a 50-55 knot jet sets up around 1000 ft. Temperatures are currently 10-15 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday morning, with lows this morning in the mid 60s to low 70s. The upper level ridge with associated H500 high pressure system continues to build and move east across the Southern Plains today. The ridge will aid in warming up the Panhandles today under mostly clear skies and high temperatures today are forecast to be at or near records for this day.
231 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper ridge was centered east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range with a trough approaching the Great Basin. The showers will diminish this evening, however showers may begin to develop over the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany counties toward morning.
325 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Region remains under weak northwest upper flow between the exiting east coast upper trough and upper ridging over the southern plains. Best chances for any precipitation will be across the far southern and western reaches of the forecast area around the periphery of the ridge where moisture will be at least marginally more favorable. increased southerly flow ahead of the upper trough so likely pops still look reasonable.
1107 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Under sunny skies with warm south winds, temperatures have already warmed into the upper 70s to the lower 80s late this morning.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 87 67 87 68 / 0 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 87 64 89 66 / 0 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 64 88 66 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 85 59 87 62 / 0 10 0 0 0.
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build overhead through tonight.
135 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
Overall, not much rain has fallen from these showers, but they have helped to keep temps cooler than they could be without the cloud cover.
So heat index values will jump tomorrow with values ranging from 95F to possibly as high as 110F in a small area in northeast Oklahoma where the dew points should be the highest.
234 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A bit warmer today over the area with temperatures from the low to mid 80s early this afternoon, with the higher readings over the western CWA. Further east, lows in the low to mid 60s are expected. Higher dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are also expected which will bring heat index values of upper 90s to around 105 to the area. In addition, with the high moisture content, some excessive rainfall will also be possible there.
254 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Heat and humidity will return tomorrow as a warm front lifts north from the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning.
406 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper ridge over the area today will begin to give way to a trough moving down out of Canada Thursday. Not expecting much from these as they have to overcome subsidence from the ridge but airmass is fairly moist with dewpts in the mid 50s to 60s so brief moderate rain is possible.
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week. The near term period will continue to be dry and quiet with high pressure over the region. Overnight, the center of the high pressure moves east and out to sea. With the center of the high pressure to the east, a ridge moves into the region during the morning hours. As a result, the flow becomes more southerly, bringing warmer air into the region. An area of low pressure developing in the central US helps increase the SW flow over the Northeast with increasing heat and humidity through the short term.
An inverted H5 trough that has taken shape along the coast today will nudge to the west-southwest this evening as upper level ridging shifts into the region. Onshore flow will strengthen tomorrow as low pressure across the Southern Plains deepens and tightens our pressure gradient. Most will remain dry tomorrow but still can't completely rule out a stray shower or storm as the low levels remain saturated. We look to warm up a couple more degrees tomorrow as upper ridging takes control. These warmer temps combined with increased low level moisture, thanks to the onshore flow, will allow for heat indices to climb into the 110-112 degree range across the Brush Country.
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north through Thursday with below normal temperatures.
238 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper level ridging remains squarely in place overhead through this evening which will help temperatures warm to near the century mark. Upper level ridging will begin to flatten tomorrow as a trough moves out of British Columbia and sinks into the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, this won't change sensible weather much across our region as ridging will remain in place and hence temperatures will still warm back up to near the century mark.
Nonetheless, it'll still be quite hot this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and maximum heat index values between 100 and 104 degrees. Mostly sunny skies are expected by late Thursday morning, making for a slightly warmer day with high temperatures in the 90s.
1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
Meanwhile the Florida Mainland is lighting up like a Christmas tree, as a nearly- stationary upper level trough remains draped across the region, providing ample forcing for ascent. Thereafter, the trough will lift out as a well-defined ridge builds across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
Broad upper level troughing over the eastern U. S> gradually gets replaced by upper level ridging building into the southeastern U. Mid to upper level dry air is present across the area given proximity to upper level ridging and some advection of drier air aloft on the backside of the upper level trough.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over Texas will dominate the weather across Southeast Texas through the short term. Otherwise, coverage and intensity of thunderstorms today is much less in comparison to the past couple of days thanks to that building high pressure helping to suppress storms.
256 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Current models show the upper ridge stretching from NM up through ID/MT today. By Thursday, upper flow over the region starts to become more zonal as a strong upper low over the Pacific coast helps to flattens the ridge.
333 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm.
Clouds will decrease overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Showers and storms will develop along this cold front after midnight tonight and move into north-central Wisconsin after 4 AM. As the cold front moves southeast through the area, there may be a threat of heavy rain, large hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest storms. The cold front continues to sag south through the day on Thursday and is expected to lay up across portions of Iowa into northern Illinois.
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 The short term portion of the forecast will remain quiet as high pressure to our east continues to control the area. The upper flow pattern becomes more active late this week and into the weekend as a upper trough drops from southern Canada and into the Northern Plains.
Gusty southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon, with gust up into the lower 30 mph range, with occasional upper 30 mph possible due to a tightening surface gradient plus mixing into a 35-40 kt low-level jet (LLJ). The active pattern looks to continue with the sharp upper ridge over the west coast, a broad ridge over the southeast and Mid- Atlantic and a trough over the central U. It does not look to be overly warm, nor overly humid with highs around 80 and dew points in the low to mid 60s for the most part.
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure has settled in today, currently sitting over northeast West Virginia and southwestern PA. In the upper levels, the eastern CONUS is still under the influence of a trough, but heights through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys having flattened out since yesterday. An upper level ridge continues to stay planted in the Southern Plains, locking in continued warmth and dry conditions for the Southwest. In the short-term, high pressure will keep things dry and mostly to partly sunny. Because of where the anticyclone is located, winds will shift to be out of the south overnight tonight. Thus, we can anticipate warmer air for both daytime highs and overnight lows through the period. With that said, expect some ridge valley splits, specifically in the deeper eastern valleys closer to the high.
1108 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will push east to the coast of New England tonight and Thursday. Weak low pressure drifting across the Lower Great lakes will then favor unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend with the likelihood of showers. High pressure moving from Pennsylvania to the New England coast will provide us with fair dry weather through tonight. High pressure will dominate the northeast Thursday, providing dry conditions across Western New York and the North Country. Mostly sunny skies expected for Thursday, with increasing temperatures, as a warm front passes well to the north of the region, and southerly flow develops. Temperatures on Thursday will warm to the upper 70s and low 80s, with some mid 70s expected for the higher terrain.
A bit warmer today over the area with temperatures from the low to mid 80s early this afternoon, with the higher readings over the western CWA. Further east, lows in the low to mid 60s are expected. Higher dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are also expected which will bring heat index values of upper 90s to around 105 to the area. In addition, with the high moisture content, some excessive rainfall will also be possible there.
This cloud cover does look to cap high temperatures to the low 80s as it should take several hours to dissipate. With drier air moving in behind the wedge front, dewpoints will drop to the lower 60s for most of north Georgia, and rain chances will be more limited to chances between 25-45 percent south of a line from LaGrange to Macon to Vidalia. /Issued 325 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Region remains under weak northwest upper flow between the exiting east coast upper trough and upper ridging over the southern plains. Best chances for any precipitation will be across the far southern and western reaches of the forecast area around the periphery of the ridge where moisture will be at least marginally more favorable. increased southerly flow ahead of the upper trough so likely pops still look reasonable.
753 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure gradually retreats offshore through Thursday.
950 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure builds across the local area overnight. An area of low pressure moves north along the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday. A trough of low pressure lingers across the region through the upcoming weekend. Guidance is still split regarding the strength and placement of a coastal trough/closed low pressure off the southern NC coast. The NAM continues to show the strongest low pressure and resultant stronger winds and higher seas while the GFS/ECMWF show a weaker low that lifts northward farther offshore. The weak (~1020mb) depiction of the low across the various guidance gives low confidence in meeting SCA wind criteria for the Ches Bay, Currituck Sound, or coastal waters. Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the remainder of the week as Bermuda high pressure sets up offshore with SE flow over the local waters.
531 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper ridge was centered east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range with a trough approaching the Great Basin. The showers will diminish this evening, however showers may begin to develop over the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany counties toward morning.
Latest NAM guidance has a period of warm advection and more widespread low clouds around daybreak while ensemble guidance and latest HRRR is more limited in development holding low ceilings to the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR. Decided to back off on ceilings across northeast OK terminals given signal for high clouds to spread over the top of the building ridge and limit cooling and cloud development as indicated by the majority of guidance. So heat index values will jump tomorrow with values ranging from 95F to possibly as high as 110F in a small area in northeast Oklahoma where the dew points should be the highest.
827 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Although it is windy across to the area thanks to a cold front moving through, winds gusts were not handled very well in the models for this afternoon. Fire weather concerns continue into Thursday ahead of the front as relative humidity decreases early into the lower 20s for the southern zones, but stronger winds are expected once the front passes. A very slow moving ridge to the west will make its way eastward over the weekend. Temperatures will return to the 90s and continue to trend warmer. S-SE 5 to 15kts Thursday morning, shifting N-NW 15-20kts, gusts 20-25kts by afternoon, N-NE 10-15kts by evening SYNOPSIS: Another cold front moves through Montana Thursday bringing with it partly to mostly cloudy skies with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
749 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Fair weather will continue through Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the north.