Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most of the precipitation should fall as snow with the exception of south central Kansas where a mix of freezing rain and snow will be possible. Temperatures slightly above the surface are expected to increase as the night progresses leading to snow changing over to freezing rain or sleet as we head towards sunrise. As for temperatures, highs today look to top off slightly above freezing.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 62 70 66 76 / 10 30 60 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 58 70 64 74 / 10 20 50 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 73 57 70 64 73 / 10 10 50 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 54 71 61 71 / 10 10 30 70 70.
Cold front off to the northwest may bring some light rain to northwest zones this morning, but as the weaker Midwest trough moves eastward as well as the strong closed low over the SW US moves eastward, weak ridging will be overhead later this afternoon and should limit precip potential across the area. As we get into the overnight hours tonight, precip chances will increase from south to north as the warm front works its way into the area.
It will settle farther south today as low pressure over Alberta drags a chunk of warmer, downsloped airmass eastward with it. Temperatures will only be slightly milder than yesterday since the source region of the airmass is from the high pressure ridge. A nice rebound can be expected Wednesday with highs in the 40s head of the trailing cold front.
VFR conditions expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals as high pressure and drier air establish across the region. /issued 239 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020/ An upper ridge of high pressure is centered over the Northern Florida Atlantic waters, with South Florida generally located under the southern periphery of this ridge. Given the orientation of the 500 hPa ridge, near-surface easterly flow will preside over the region through the short-term period. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than seasonable, with most areas experiencing highs in the mid/upper 80s over the eastern counties and interior respectively. The western counties and Gulf coast could see maximum temperatures in the lower 90s.
Areas of rain/drizzle to continue across SE OK and NW AR, while rain/freezing rain/drizzle will prevail across the NE OK sites this morning, but transition to rain by afternoon. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020/ Freezing line has remained quasi-stationary overnight, and currently extends along a Miami to Tulsa to Okemah line. Wintry precipitation has remained rather light, mainly in the form of freezing drizzle, although expect another shot of light freezing rain this morning as precipitation developing across western TX races northeast. That said, the freezing line will gradually shift northwest this morning, with any freezing rain potential shifting to mainly Osage and Pawnee counties this afternoon. A powerful upper level low will move into the TX panhandle by Wednesday morning, with broadly diffluent flow developing across the region.
The ridge will continue to dominate the region for a slow warming trend.
652 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, deep layer ridging is establishing itself just off the Space Coast of Florida, which is leading to a continuation of our east to southeast winds. As allude to above, it's quite the muggy morning with current temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. High pressure will provide large scale subsidence and dry air for the next couple of days.
519 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The cut off low pressure is currently tracking over southern Arizona, which means most of the midlevel clouds have exited the area. This stratus is expected to remain over these locations through the morning with little to no expansion, and it will keep temperatures slightly warmer. This is likely due to the cold temperatures yesterday coupled with winds associated with the low pressure. As the low tracks over New Mexico and eventually the Southern Plains temps will modify.
Rain chances wl once again incrs acrs AR fm the S late tngt and over the rest of the area Wed ahead of the aforementioned upper low.
514 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Currently - Moderate to fresh east southeast breezes across the Keys this morning are being driven by high pressure over the eastern United States and Hurricane Zeta over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Lower level ridging extends from the Atlantic into the Southeastern United States and broad upper level ridging is pin place across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the high over the eastern United States will move out into the Atlantic with a ridge axis extending west southwestward across the lower Florida Peninsula.
may not have gone up quite enough as some guidance is in the lower 40s for later today. which could see some cloud cover from the upper low. With the EC now a bit further south with the trajectory of this low.
The responsible upper level trough is pushing east though, taking the heart of the colder air with it and allowing for some moderation to the recent cold. Current solutions keep the bulk of the forcing/saturation and thus qpf to the north, although also drag a cold front across the region. The front will bring a quick shot of cooler air, but should rebound already by Mon.
Another cold front was located over portions of Northwest Tennessee then back into Eastern Arkansas. Stratiform rain occurring behind the aforementioned cold front is expected to gradually diminish later this morning. A period of rain free conditions is expected today until moisture increases once again as the quasi-stationary boundary over Southern Mississippi begins to move north as a warm front. The warm front is anticipated to move north across the Mid-South during the day on Wednesday.
As this dry air continues to push southeast, temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low single digits area wide, with below zero readings expected across the Platte River Valley where weak westerly flow should supplement the efficient radiational cooling. This would normally be a setup with the downslope component to shade warmer than guidance with high temps, but with antecedent snow cover, will stay near to just below guidance with highs today. Guidance has come in better agreement with regards to the track of this low across the southern Plains. Will keep very low end POPs across our far southern tier, though confidence is increasing that even these may be on the high side.
Temperatures are already in the low 80's and will continue to heat up into the low 90's this afternoon, with near record heat expected. Interaction between Tropical Storm Zeta near the Yucatan Peninsula and broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty east-southeast winds around 15-20 knots over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
955 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Mid-level ridging will deepen onshore flow today, as Hurricane Zeta pushes off of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central GOMEX. The low ceilings noted this morning at KISM should finish lifting by around 14Z.
Mainly dry conditions across the region this week with high pressure.
Air temperatures were hovering right around freezing, and will likely warm a couple of degrees through the morning hours.
540 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Areas of light rain and snow this morning, will transition to rain as temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build over the area later today and remain into Wednesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain mostly sunny across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low that brought snowfall over the weekend, now closed off south of the four corners region, continues to push south and east. Still decided to go with the low end of guidance for temperatures as the fresh snowpack will continue to keep us cooler the next few days as we slowly warm back up. All models show the jet stream retreating northward into Canada due to a pretty intense upper level high centered east of the four corners region by late this weekend.
Winds along the western foothills and up to Harlowton have been gusty overnight, but generally only into the lower 40s. Highs today will be in mid 30s to lower 40s and as the warming trend continues for Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 40s.
855 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
A weak cold front moving across the area Wednesday could produce sprinkles or flurries near the Michigan border, and perhaps some virga further south.
A very untropical air mass is west of the boundary with snow and freezing rain across central and northwest Texas. As Zeta moves inland the strong cold front will quickly sweep east.
A deep and cold upper level low heading toward the southeastern corner of Arizona this morning will meander into New Mexico late this afternoon and then away from the region overnight. Moisture wrapping around the low will affect southern Apache county and parts of southern Navajo county through the day, tapering off this evening. Expect slightly warmer temperatures today, much warmer Wednesday, with light winds.
Not much has changed regarding the overall track forecast reasoning as we sit between a mid-level ridge moving eastward across Florida and a developing cut off low and vigorous upper level trough over the southwest. The trough will push through Texas on Wednesday as Zeta approaches and the combination of these two systems will force Zeta towards our general area. While increasing wind shear and cooler water temperatures near our coastline should taper off any strengthening, there is certainly the possibility that Zeta could overachieve.
Some thunder is possible as the warm front pulls northward, but still not expecting severe weather.
Warmer Wednesday on through the weekend with continued dry conditions. Northerly flow over NV today as the recent low pressure system exits through AZ, while at the same time high pressure begins to move in along the west coast. Weakening northerly flow aloft across NV tonight, with slightly warmer though still below normal low temperatures early Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny and warmer Wednesday afternoon as the high pressure from along the west coast gradually builds in over NV.
A low pressure system will glide across the Canadian Prairies today with a branch of the warm front draped through the Northern Plains. The exiting low pressure across Canada will have it's cold front sweep across the Borderlands early Wednesday. Ample moisture on the backside of the low combined with a strong vort max will incite a wintry mix. Loss of ice crystals within the dendritic growth zone could lead to freezing rain in the morning.
317 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The cut off low pressure is currently tracking over southern Arizona, which means most of the midlevel clouds have exited the area. This stratus is expected to remain over these locations through the morning with little to no expansion, and it will keep temperatures slightly warmer. This is likely due to the cold temperatures yesterday coupled with winds associated with the low pressure. As the low tracks over New Mexico and eventually the Southern Plains temps will modify.
Patchy fog is also noted, mainly on the ridges. At the same time, southerly flow in the low-levels will advect moisture into the region. Zeta will be racing to the northeast at this point as the closed low moves across TX.
High pressure has moved into the area so expect sunny skies and light winds today. This should allow temperatures to reach the high 30s and possibly 40 degrees in some areas. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move in from the Dakotas. The cold front combined with that low pressure system should lead to increased cloud cover over the area.
Most of the precipitation should fall as snow with the exception of south central Kansas where a mix of freezing rain and snow will be possible. Temperatures slightly above the surface are expected to increase as the night progresses leading to snow changing over to freezing rain or sleet as we head towards sunrise. As for temperatures, highs today look to top off slightly above freezing. As mentioned in the short term, snow will change over to freezing rain or sleet across a majority of the forecast area Tuesday night.
Ritzman (Issued 356 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020) Early Morning hours: Persistent mid-level clouds are keeping areas of far southern Wisconsin a bit warmer during the pre-dawn hours. Today through Wednesday: High pressure will continue to provide dry weather today and skies should clear during the mid-morning hours from west to east. Temperatures today will only be marginally warmer than yesterday, as west winds will be advecting cold air toward us from Iowa and Minnesota. A low pressure system will then pass to the north of Lake Superior Tuesday night into Wednesday and turn winds to a southerly direction, allowing for warm air advection to return. Highs will reach the low 50s on Wednesday as a result, but we will have to contend with some moderately gusty winds as well.
245 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Area radars show a lull in place between last night's convection and the arrival of the upper trough tonight. WV imagery shows the trough over the srn border of AZ/NM at 18Z, and this feature is forecast to traverse east to SE NM by 12Z Wed. After that, most models eject the trough into the South Plains, w/the GFS hanging a bit farther south in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains. That said, cooler air aloft will arrive w/the approach of the trough tonight, starting out w/all snow west of the NM/Texas border, a wintry mix farther east, and FZRA in the ern zones. Most areas under this mornings freeze warning verified, and freezing temps even made it as far south as K6R6 and Persimmon Gap.
has ramped up over the last 24 hours and as this system pushes east over the next 24 hours, a warm front will lift northward bringing a very tropical airmass to our region. Widespread showers, as well as several rumbles of thunder will accompany the lifting of the warm front through Middle TN.
Light surface winds and light to modest upper level winds present as ridge builds offshore and remains for next few days. A ridge of high pressure off the west coast will continue to nudge inland and over the region providing mostly clear skies.
1226 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
228 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 With an upper trough to our east, a NW flow is over the area and can allow for subtle but impacting systems to move SE across the area.
227 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper flow continues generally north to south across WY today, with the cutoff low gradually shifting east across AZ/NM, with the broad west coast ridge extending eastward across he Four Corners into tomorrow. Have opted for a slightly cooler forecast, due to leftover snowfall at the surface only gradually melting out late today and tomorrow.
12Z KOTX sounding coming in a little warmer than 24 hours ago but still showing the substantial subsidence inversion capping mixing heights over the Columbia basin and associated nearby lowlands to somewhere on the order of 1600-1900 feet AGL and significantly lower over remaining mountain zone locations. Some low clouds and fog more or less on the wane this morning along with some mid and higher level clouds streaming through along the outer edges of the ridge but shouldn't overly complicated the dry and cold day today.
Rain chances will be limited as subsidence, drier air and warmer will prevail. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than normals, with most areas experiencing highs in the mid/upper 80s over the eastern counties and interior respectively. The western counties and Gulf coast could see maximum temperatures in the lower 90s.
1127 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The cut off low pressure is currently tracking over southern Arizona, which means most of the midlevel clouds have exited the area. This stratus is expected to remain over these locations through the morning with little to no expansion, and it will keep temperatures slightly warmer. This is likely due to the cold temperatures yesterday coupled with winds associated with the low pressure. As the low tracks over New Mexico and eventually the Southern Plains temps will modify.
High pressure aloft centered near the west coast will leave Utah under a dry and stable north to northwest flow aloft through midweek. A closed low is centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border with high pressure off the Pacific coast building in behind it. As the low tracks east today and the high continues to build in, these winds will continue to diminish. The high will also bring a steady warming trend through much of the week. Maxes today will be up to 10F warmer than values observed yesterday for most locations, but will still be up to 15F below seasonal normals. North to northeast winds will again be gusty at times over southern Utah, with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
This rain has been associated with the upper low located across the Southern Plains. This should keep temps a little cooler thus have adjusted highs down a tad. Another cold front was located over portions of Northwest Tennessee then back into Eastern Arkansas. Stratiform rain occurring behind the aforementioned cold front is expected to gradually diminish later this morning. A period of rain free conditions is expected today until moisture increases once again as the quasi-stationary boundary over Southern Mississippi begins to move north as a warm front. The warm front is anticipated to move north across the Mid-South during the day on Wednesday.
Rain chances will be on the increase as tropical system Zeta advances toward southeast Louisiana while a cold front approaches from the plains. A very untropical air mass is west of the boundary with snow and freezing rain across central and northwest Texas. As Zeta moves inland the strong cold front will quickly sweep east.
Lows late tonight will dip to the low to mid 30s. Look for warmer temperatures Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
358 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure resides just off Florida's Space Coast to our north and northeast while Zeta moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The proximity of these showers to the Lower Keys has resulted in partly cloudy skies at times.
Highs will struggle to reach into the lower to middle 40s. Look for warmer temperatures Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
High pressure will continue drifting southward of the area tonight while low pressure moves east through southern Canada. Otherwise, mostly clear skies elsewhere with overnight lows bottoming out in the low-mid 20s. That area of low pressure will drag a cold front through the area later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
The cold upper level low over southeast Arizona will eject into New Mexico today. A deep and cold upper level low heading toward the southeastern corner of Arizona this morning will meander into New Mexico late this afternoon and then away from the region overnight. Moisture wrapping around the low will affect southern Apache county and parts of southern Navajo county through the day, tapering off this evening. Expect warmer temperatures today and Wednesday with northerly breezes Wednesday.
A warmer air mass has allowed some moderation of our extreme and record cold temperatures.
This precipitation has been falling as a wintry mix of light rain, light snow, light sleet, and light freezing rain. Breezy conditions have also developed as expected along and west of the eastward moving warm front and will begin to diminish towards sunset. Clouds will once again be on the increase overnight, but we will be a bit warmer than previous nights with lows in the mid 20s southwest to the lower 30s northeast. Another weak impulse will ride down the upper ridge to our west overnight and into Wednesday morning, bringing chances of light rain or snow to the far north, mainly north of Highway 2. Wednesday will be another warmer day (comparatively speaking) with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
During this intermediate period, we may see intermittent light rain and/or light drizzle (freezing northwest of the freezing line--see below). The next round of precipitation will enter from the west around midnight under the influence of the cut-off low and spread eastward through the night and into the morning. QPF amounts could result in significant additional icing where temperatures remain below freezing. The key forecast challenge with this precipitation will be the surface freezing line. This line will mark the division between freezing rain and rain. Some lingering sleet may remain possible in the northwest into the evening, but by midnight most precipitation is expected to transition to freezing rain or rain (as the near surface cold layer narrows). Current forecast keeps near freezing temperatures in central Oklahoma till about 06Z tonight, and in northwest Oklahoma through 15 to 18Z tomorrow.
Temperatures are still expected to be below freezing when the rain starts so that ice accumulations of. Since temperatures will not be very far below freezing, there will be some runoff that will limit ice accumulations.
A ridge of high pressure off the west coast will continue to nudge inland and over the region providing mostly clear skies.
Temperatures are 3-6 degrees warmer as of early afternoon in the snow free strips vs. It will be warmer Wednesday though still solidly well below normal. In the longer term, dry and more seasonal (even warmer than normal) weather is expected.
220 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Main concern will be the upper low moving across the southern plains and whether or not the associated precipitation makes it into the forecast area. Well lean towards the cooler guidance in those areas, and blend towards the model mean in the southern areas.
At the surface, a weak boundary associated with low pressure over south central Canada will slide across the area tonight, but will do nothing more than shift the winds around to the northwest. High pressure settles in over the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with lows Wednesday night in the lower to mid 20s.
Today Through Wednesday Night A low pressure system near the four corners region provided support for a wintry mix of freezing precip and rain just to our south, over Kansas and Missouri today. Luckily for us, high pressure over the forecast area has kept skies sunny as temperatures climbed into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to drop in from the north Wednesday afternoon, giving light winds a northerly turn.
Conditions to improve from the southwest on Wednesday evening as Zeta shifts northeast and upper-level ridging begins to build from the west. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 50s to lower 60s with much cooler temperatures in the 40s on Wednesday night.
Tropical Storm Zeta, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula will be steered by this ridging as it moves northward through the central Gulf of Mexico toward SE Louisiana over the next 36 hours.
Lows tonight will not fall much, with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70's, perhaps upper 60's across our northwestern counties.
Fully expect improving conditions thru the remainder of the day as the gradient slowly relaxes and warmer temps reduce the risk of blowing/drifting. Winds along the western foothills and up to Harlowton have been gusty overnight, but generally only into the lower 40s. Highs today will be in mid 30s to lower 40s and as the warming trend continues for Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 40s.