Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sunday through Monday night At the 08Z hour, a cold front associated with broad cyclonic flow to our north was draped from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest and located just to our northwest near the Kansans, Missouri, and Oklahoma state lines. The cold front is expected to continue moving into Arkansas early Sunday morning and should slowly move southeast as the day progresses. Accompanying the cold front will be showers and thunderstorms some of which could have some strong wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall.
As far as the synoptic setup over the region, water vapor and upper air data shows Florida in between a low over the northern Gulf coast region and high pressure well to our northeast. At the surface, the high pressure axis remains over the southern part of the state with a relatively light low-level flow. Winds will then become southeasterly and increase Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure aloft will be strengthening over the desert southwest thru Monday and will remain over the area through the week.
Broad upper trough will prevail over the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley through mid week, as ridging builds west of the Rockies.
359 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Current radar presentation shows maritime showers moving into Jackson Co MS in response to upper level low pressure area situated over southern Alabama. Then models are in agreement in developing a low pressure system in the lower Gulf north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
/Issued 700 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ Weak upper trough lingers over the northern Gulf area this afternoon. A weak cold front approaches Sunday night and sags into the forecast area Monday. Broad upper- level trough dominates the eastern U.
The potential for brief funnels/landspouts remains the main concern given the strength of the low level instability and surface vorticity, in combination with weak effective shear mentioned above. Overall a northwest flow dominates under a persistent upper low/trough continuing to reside over Ontario, Canada.
A weak warm front will cross the area this morning for a chance of rain. A ridge will bring drier and warmer weather on Monday.
312 AM PDT Sun Jun 18 2017 High pressure aloft over the southwest states will bring well above average high temperatures through mid week.
A closed upper low over northwest Ontario this afternoon will loosen its grip on the forecast area by Sunday as the main low center moves to southeast Ontario. Max temps will be cooler as well with plenty of clouds and showers around. Monday will be similar, though with a little less convective activity due to the moderating cold air aloft and warmer surface temperatures.
A cold front will move through the area this morning with gusty northerly winds. WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough approaching the Great Lakes/MS Valley, and trailing a cold front into the Srn Plains. Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front in the Texas Panhandle, and hi-res models bring fropa to KMAF at around 14Z or so. Given temps over the past couple of days, and the fact that it is 85F at KMAF at 09Z, the cooler solutions seem unlikely.
A cooler air mass will spread into the area today and Monday behind the front. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s both today and Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s occur each night.
1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Widespread severe weather is still on track today along a strong cold front expected to push through the CWA this afternoon and well into the evening hours. Also, expecting to see dangerous heat levels across eastern Kansas and western Missouri today with continued increasing dew point values, combined with air temperatures rising into the low to perhaps mid 90s.
High pressure from the great basin will build north on Sunday with decreasing northwest flow. Monday will be warmer again as high pressure dominates the weather pattern.
For Sun, expect a cooler day with nwly winds at the sfc behind the cdfnt.
Heights will begin falling as an upper trough approaches, and a cold front will be nearing our western border by the end of the short term period.
144 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Aviation A cold front will move across Lower Michigan Sunday paving the way for a few days of much cooler and drier air across the state. Low pressure moves northeast toward the cwa and drags a cold front with it. Additionally, shear values near 40kts could result in strong to perhaps severe storms, especially over the southeast cwa ahead of the low. These showers and storms will linger into Sunday until the cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will flow over the cwa Monday and monday night with dewpoints falling back into the lower 50s.
This convection will be driven by strong forcing of a cold front coming through from the north along with some very good moisture transport. Northwest flow will take over Sunday morning and cooler and drier air will push into the region.
Inland temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, while locations along the coast experience cooler seasonal values. Warm temperatures aloft accompanying a building upper-level ridge are yielding a capping inversion above a humid marine layer over the Pacific. The building ridge and warm air aloft will also favor hot surface temperatures for many inland valley locations this afternoon.
618 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
611 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around.
Ridging over the area will leave dry and warming conditions today. Moisture looks to ride along the ridge beginning Monday morning, which will increase clouds across eastern Oregon.
411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to Clarendon line as of 345 am. Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the Desert Southwest.
Then, the system cold front sweeps across the region, drawing in cooler air. Lows tonight in a less humid air mass will be in the low to mid 50s most areas. Showery and cooler. The upper level trough will continue to be centered across east central Canada southward into the western Great Lakes region. Upper level disturbances rotating through this trough in combination with daytime heating derived instability will continue to result in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms (especially during the afternoons when can generate a few hundred J/KG of cape). Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. The trough slowly fills while lifting northeast away from the region.
134 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold front. Strong convection is expected to wane overnight, but the cold front will not pass through the region until Monday. As such, the delay in the passage of the cold front will prolong the exit of precipitation, and may lead to several rounds of convection, albeit not as intense. Although the deep moisture is vacated, a mean upper trough will be maintained in the Great Lakes region. This trough will create a progressive flow across the Ohio Valley, leading to daily chances for showers and storms through much of the week.
Also introduced slight chance pops across our extreme southeast zones for this evening due to the remnants of another MCV across the Lower Miss Valley and the presence of an upper level trough axis. Beyond tonight, we await the presence an upper level trough across the Northern and Central Plains, digging into the Ohio and Tenn Valley during the day Sunday, bringing with it a strong cold front into the Southern Plains.
407 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold front. Strong convection is expected to wane overnight, but the cold front will not pass through the region until Monday. As such, the delay in the passage of the cold front will prolong the exit of precipitation, and may lead to several rounds of convection, albeit not as intense. Although the deep moisture is vacated, a mean upper trough will be maintained in the Great Lakes region. This trough will create a progressive flow across the Ohio Valley, leading to daily chances for showers and storms through much of the week.
High pressure will drop over the western half of the state on Sunday, but the east will still be under the influence of the exiting low pressure system, so may see some additional shower or weak thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Low pressure over southern Iowa and the central plains will move across the great lakes Sunday pulling a trailing cold front southeast across Indiana. Numerous thunderstorms will occur in a moist unstable air mass ahead of the cold front late tonight into Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A strong 500 mb ridge anchored over the southwest United States and northern Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to triple digits across the western areas, mainly along and west of US 281/I-69C corridor.
356 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge extending across northern Mexico into Texas with the flow from the north. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the south to southwest. The upper level ridge will remain in place keeping the weather dry during this period.
1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Satellite data showing an upper level disturbance continuing to sink southeast through the Dakotas this afternoon, associated with a low pressure system over Ontario. The main cold front has pushed just south of the CWA this afternoon, currently draped from central KS northeast into southern IA. Good agreement among models showing northwesterly flow building in the upper levels across the region, thanks to ridging building north over the western CONUS. Monday morning, models are in good agreement showing amplified northwesterly flow aloft set up across the Central Plains, sitting between high pressure over the desert SW and low pressure over Ontario. High pressure at the surface across the region is expected to bring lighter westerly winds to start the day, turning more northwesterly for much of the area in the afternoon.
309 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 308 AM CDT A cold front is moving through northern IL this morning while convection continues south of I-80. The upper level trough currently over Minnesota and Iowa will slide east. Expecting isolated/scattered showers and storms to form north of I-80 this afternoon under the influence of the trough. Temperatures will be cooler today, and west winds will be gusting 25- 30 MPH this afternoon. The upper level trough slowly shifts east early this week then zonal flow sets up aloft.
254 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Trough axis at mid/upper levels will remain across AL/MS, while upper low retrogrades southwest into the central Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical ridge axis south of the region will lift northward today, and deep tropical moisture from the northwest Caribbean gyre will surge northward across the Florida peninsula. 5C by this evening, with the freezing level over 15. Temperatures will range from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s across inland southeast Georgia. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place through Monday until a cold front clears the area Monday night. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the middle of the week. A stratus layer has developed east of the Blue Ridge mountains early this morning as seen on nighttime microphysics RGB with some patchy fog over some of the valleys in eastern WV.
310 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Current IR satellite loop shows some low clouds lingering across the high plains of southeast Wyoming and into the southern Nebraska panhandle early this morning. It should be dry across the area today, but can not rule out a few sprinkles along and north of the Pine Ridge, including Lusk and Chadron as some jet energy moves eastward. For Monday, The strong upper level ridge which is responsible for the heat wave across the desert southwest, will begin to build northward and nudge eastward through the day. The high plains will remain in northwesterly flow aloft, so temperatures will be slow to increase.
Cold front lingering to the NW this afternoon moving closer to the region and will be driving tonights weather and into tomorrow. Air behind the front is not that much cooler and tomorrows highs are still expected in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
318 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east across the local area later today and tonight.
850 mb thermal troughing is especially pronounced over eastern TN. Weak sfc ridging will drop southward so our winds will be lighter.
An upper trough remains over the east half of the US. High pressure is centered over South Texas and is stretched across the central sections of the country, however a weak secondary front is drifting south through the local area. Cold high pressure remains in place this morning with hard freeze conditions underway at most locations away from the coast. In some locations temps have climbed 5-10 degrees over the past hours, but even with the climb the whole area is at or below freezing. Today with clear skies and light winds, temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, and slightly warmer conditions are expected across the forecast area tonight.
A ridge will persist across the region through Friday.
/Issued 305 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ Benign weather overall for the next few days as we transition from the highly meridional flow that brought the recent cold snap, to a more progressive and less amplified pattern. A weak front passed yesterday which will hold daytime temps at bay this afternoon before a much warmer day Friday.
At the same time, snow showers will quickly develop over the higher elevations. Lake temperatures are close to freezing and ice has begun to cover portions of Lake Erie. Still expecting wind shear in the lowest levels, which will work to limit the extent of any snow bands that develop. Mid level low pressure will drop swd across the Great Lakes region and reinforce the ERN CONUS trough, and resultant cold into the weekend. Considering both the temperature and the fact that even marginal wind will bring wind chill values below headline thresholds, have upgraded the Wind Chill Watch to a warning for the higher terrain, and issued a wind chill advisory for the rest of the area.
The warmer air is trapped under the ridge to the west, over the Rockies and the west coast.
Models continue to struggle with snowpack and temps, as they want to bring in warmer temps to velley locations, where they often are colder.
QPF looks to be rather light, with most models showing a few hundredths at best, but there is consistency in area/timing, so have added a stripe of likely pops to areas from the Buffalo Ridge into the Spencer/Storm Lake area this afternoon. One more cool day Friday, as the upper trough axis begins to shift slightly eastward and upper ridging works a bit farther east into the Northern Plains.
The cold arctic air mass that engulfed the Panhandles over the holiday weekend has since pushed east over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge of high pressure building over the west.
Winds will be around 15 knots for periods for the next couple of days as high pressure will be reinforced on Friday.
Precipitation will most likely begin as snow for most areas with a change over to very light freezing drizzle/ rain by early Friday morning for some lower elevations of north-central Idaho into western Montana. The mostly likely area for freezing rain appears to the valleys of northwest Montana but once again amounts look to remain on the light side.
Elsewhere, widespread temperatures at or below freezing are expected, outside of the barrier islands of the Space and Treasure Coasts.
647 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Another re-enforcing cold front will move through the area today. Arctic high pressure will build into the region and remain in control through the weekend.
Ridging aloft will become more zonal today ahead of a short wave. Due to the increase in moisture/WAA, temps will remain above freezing tonight with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
Temperatures were on track to rise above freezing between 9-11 am, with ice melting under full sun during this time frame. A unique 12Z sounding this morning from JAX with temperatures all below freezing, nearly isothermal up to 8500 ft agl under mean layer WNW flow with the region between strong Arctic high pressure across the central CONUS and departing low pressure offshore of New England. Most moisture will evaporate today, but sheltered areas where moisture lingers tonight will freeze once again as low temperatures fall into the low/mid 20s to upper teens for most of SE GA and parts of the Suwannee River Valley. Winds and waves will decrease tonight into Friday as high pressure settles west-northwest of the region.
Despite ample sunshine, temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing for areas along and north of I-22 and north of I-20 east of Birmingham. Lows will range from the lower teens across the north to upper teens to around 20 in the south.
Northwest flow aloft persists with mid and high cloud over western and central portions of Kansas, helping keep temps a bit warmer in western and southern local areas.
Winds will remain light/nrly as high pressure works past the area. An upper trough remains over the east half of the US. High pressure is centered over South Texas and is stretched across the central sections of the country, however a weak secondary front is drifting south through the local area. Cold high pressure remains in place this morning with hard freeze conditions underway at most locations away from the coast. In some locations temps have climbed 5-10 degrees over the past hours, but even with the climb the whole area is at or below freezing. Today with clear skies and light winds, temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, and slightly warmer conditions are expected across the forecast area tonight.
The upper ridge over the Pacific NW will begin to give way as a series of short wave troughs push into the West. With the current temperature inversion in place, a chance of light freezing rain exists across the lower elevations (generally below 4k feet) of northern Harney/Malheur and Baker counties and the lower Treasure Valley. Areas that could see freezing rain will see less then 0. The next round of precipitation develops early Friday morning along a weak warm front. Snow levels are 5-7k feet, so lower valleys/basins will again see a chance for light freezing rain.
On the large scale, water vapor satellite and RAP analysis continued to show a western ridge/eastern trough configuration, although the western ridge was "dirty" in that several minor disturbances were moving across California and the Desert Southwest underneath the larger scale ridge.
Otherwise look for similar to warmer temperatures compared to today with help of a lee side trough keeping a downslope pattern around.
1032 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 While enticing breaks and raised ceilings in the closed-cell stratocumulus have occurred across the middle and upper Keys, the bias has been toward overcast conditions over the lowest 15 to 20 miles of the Florida Keys. The Keys are currently near the base of the deep upper trough, with subsident northwest flow beneath. A secondary trough in the 850 to almost 700 mb later is approaching from the northwest. While the subsidence inversion lowers, the secondary trough may serve to back boundary layer winds to north-northwest keeping portions of the Lower Keys socked in with stratocumulus into tonight.
457 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 The sharpest pressure gradient and cold air advection for the short term period will occur from daybreak through early afternoon, before the high pressure ridge axis settles into the area by late afternoon and overnight.
/17/ Tonight through Thursday: Latest RAP and satellite imagery showed a cold broad flat trough pattern over the conus with west northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. On the surface a cold arctic airmass was spreading south across the region with readings from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures should remain just above freezing in our southern counties. Model soundings shows a nice warm nose with surface temps staying just above freezing level, so it should stay all rain with very light qpf amounts. The disturbance will exit the region on Thursday as the low end rain chances will be confined to our southeast counties during the afternoon. As far as temperatures are concern it will be a cold night with lows from the lower 20s north to the middle 30s south.
Arctic high pressure will nose in from the north tonight and Friday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A small, weak disturbance dropping down into the mean upper trof late tonight will bring an increase in clouds to the Bowling Green region, and possibly a few flurries Friday morning to that area.
431 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Tonight through Thursday: Latest RAP and satellite imagery showed a cold broad flat trough pattern over the conus with west northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. On the surface a cold arctic airmass was spreading south across the region with readings from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures should remain just above freezing in our southern counties. Model soundings shows a nice warm nose with surface temps staying just above freezing level, so it should stay all rain with very light qpf amounts. The disturbance will exit the region on Thursday as the low end rain chances will be confined to our southeast counties during the afternoon. As far as temperatures are concern it will be a cold night with lows from the lower 20s north to the middle 30s south.
404 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 The morning sfc analysis indicates that our weak reinforcing cold front has settled S to the SE TX/Srn LA coast this morning, with post-frontal mixing weakening early this morning allowing 09Z temps to fall into the upper teens to near 20 degrees N of I-20, to the lower 20s farther S.
Colder air is gradually filtering into the area early this morning in the wake of last evening's cold front. Temperatures will easily eclipse 5 degrees across the southern half of the CWA, though a brisk northwest gradient, augmented by overlake troughing, will keep wind chills flirting with advisory criteria at times. Southern counties unlikely to reach criteria given lagging cold air and high temps of 10 degrees or warmer, but will let the headline go as there will nonetheless be a chill in the air near the Ohio border.
This should mitigate radiational cooling (along with an intermittent light S/SSE) and generally preclude a potential for freezing fog early Thu morning. With the above in mind, have opted to remove mention of freezing fog previously indicated in northeast portions of the area late tonight. H5 ridging to the west combined with west-northwest surface flow will bring the area above normal high temps ranging from around 40F east up to the upper 40s to near 50F west.