Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm advection and upper-level ridging takes over tonight and Thursday.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 65 35 53 34 / 10 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 66 32 51 31 / 10 90 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 62 30 50 30 / 10 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 65 30 47 27 / 0 80 30 0 0.
(This afternoon through Tonight) Cold front pushing through NE OK this morning, with gusty north winds ushering much cooler air into that area behind the boundary. Winds will begin to relax this evening, with temperatures falling to the lower 30s across NE OK and NW AR under clearing skies.
1005 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Winds continue to gust across the FA, although the stronger gusts are still found across the higher elevations over central North Dakota. So far the period of reduction is fairly short as the snow showers are not very extensive, and have mainly been along and north of the highway 2 corridor. Stacked low pressure system will track across southern Manitoba today with its tight pressure gradient bringing strong winds to the region and some wrap around snow showers especially across NW MN this afternoon. Wind speeds this morning are gusting the highest across the Devils Lake basin with speeds generally from 40 to 50mph.
411 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Looking across the region temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s over much of the area.
505 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 (This afternoon through Thursday) A transient trough within progressive amplified upper flow pattern has sent a cold front into the area, ending the period of above normal temperatures. Lows tomorrow morning will be below freezing across roughly the northwest half of the area, and a hard freeze is expected in far northwest Oklahoma, including Arnett, Buffalo and possibly Woodward.
19z surface analysis and regional radar mosaics depicted cold front well east of the local area from near Gary,IN to just east of Decatur,IL, and then towards St. While some clearing of clouds will take place this evening and overnight, Thursday morning low temperatures should only drop a few degrees below freezing.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest for the weekend.
A cold front will work its way into and thru the region during this cycle, prompting showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. /issued 411 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021/ Looking across the region temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s over much of the area.
HRRR model suggests this thin cloud layer advects south this evening, becoming scattered out with time, as the overall surface pressure gradient relaxes and a surface anticyclone becomes established over the western half of Kansas by around 12Z Thursday. It's likely the entire forecast area is well below the freezing mark , including the red hills area, with. the western ark valley approaching the low teens. A fairly homogeneous airmass will likely have little overall spread in highs across the forecast area with strong model consensus in the low 50s. Thursday night will bring slightly more breezy southwest surface winds overnight and not as cold lows given that southwest flow trajectory, and even the NBM 5th percentile is indicating mid to upper 20s, so alot of the areas especially east of Dodge city could be above the freezing mark.
This brief, weak ridging taking place will eventually develop into zonal flow by Thursday and persist into the weekend.
419 PM MST Wed Nov 17 2021 Drier air moved in fairly quickly late this morning into the afternoon behind the departing trough and cold front, giving way to clear skies. Models do show high clouds increasing Thursday as another Pacific trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, but thinking the cloud cover will hold off until late Thursday morning and afternoon, allowing low temperatures to bottom out well below freezing. The flow will turn more westerly as the Pacific Northwest trough moves inland and flattens the ridge.
323 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Tonight through Thursday: Most weather concerns in the near term will be associated with a cold front pushing southeast across the area. Otherwise, the cold front should move into northwest portions of the forecast area after midnight, accompanied by showers and perhaps a few lightning strikes initially. Temperatures will be notably cooler behind the front with gusty northwest wind combining to make for rather uncomfortable conditions. High pressure at the surface will move in behind the front, but only briefly.
541 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 A potent closed upper low within a deep long wave trough is located across western Ontario late this afternoon. Portions of north central Nebraska could stay a few degrees warmer in the lower 20s where winds will stay up somewhat. The airmass remains dry Thursday as the Canadian airmass is recycled back northward as the high shifts east and southerly low-level flow develops by Thursday afternoon.
The upper level low spinning across Ontario will keep a trough extending across our eastern counties through this evening, with clouds exiting to the northeast.
515 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 A strong cold front extending from MI southwest through southeastern MO and northwestern AR will continue moving southeastward.
612 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, winds will continue to rapidly diminish this evening, then become south to southwest by mid to late Thursday morning as a surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern CO and eastern NM. Brisk northerly winds will subside into the evening and overnight hours, setting the stage for a chilly night in the wake of today's cold front. Tomorrow, the longwave trough responsible for the front ejects eastward across the Great Plains and flow aloft begins to slacken. While overnight lows tomorrow night will trend warmer by a few to as many as 15 degrees, frigid wind chills may exist.
An unseasonably warmer day Thu, in spite of the clouds and precip, as temperatures max out in the U70s to L80s areawide. On Thu, the pressure gradient slackens and supports 10-15 knots as high pressure to the north pushes farther seaward.
616 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Winds expected to stay somewhat elevated throughout the night before a cold front blows through tomorrow morning. A cold front will be racing southward entering our northern zones near or just after daybreak Tuesday with windy northerly flow while surface pressure rises around 10 millibars per three hours press southward into the Panhandle.
851 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A ridge will extend from a high over the Western Atlantic Tonight.
Onshore sea breeze component along the coast will weaken and collapse in the next or so with a light east-southeast wind flow expected overnight as high pressure from the western Atlantic west across the north-central peninsula remains in control.
802 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 An approaching warm front will bring rain back into the region for Tuesday.
Mainly IFR/LIFR ceilings for the remainder of the overnight hours across NE OK with a few breaks in cloud cover further south across SE OK/NW AR as warmer airmass continues to surge north ahead of next cold front. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid morning Tuesday, pushing to near a MLC/XNA line around the 17-19Z time frame. /Issued 918 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ Warmer air continues to surge north this evening as reflected by rising temperatures at just about all locations as of mid evening. Boundary to move through as a cold front tomorrow, with pops to increase some from west to east along the boundary during the morning and afternoon hours.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather on Tuesday allowing for easterly flow to continue. /issued 400 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region tonight. This area of high pressure will remain in place on Tuesday bringing dry conditions to many locations. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the upper 80s across interior sections.
Currently temperatures have warmed up into the lower to middle 80s except near the coast where temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to increase across the region through tomorrow as pressures continue to lower in the central plains with approaching upper trough. These southerly winds will continue to increase the low level moisture ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the area tomorrow night.
As the cold front rolls through tonight, showers will increase across portions of northwest Colorado and the mountains of west central and southwest Colorado. Very dry air will advect into the region behind the cold front tonight, shutting off any chance of precipitation by the early morning hours on Tuesday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday as the cooler airmass remains over the region in northwesterly flow.
A fast moving cold front will move out of southern Utah after midnight. A ridge of high pressure will build in for the remainder of the work week. The associated cold front is currently surging through southern Utah. Subsidence in the wake of this trough axis is allowing for a downward trend in precip across the north, with an increase in radar returns in the wake of the frontal boundary across southwest Utah. Much colder air coupled with clearing skies should result in a cold night with most locations excluding the far south falling below freezing tonight.
A strong cold front will move through the KABI around 17z, KSJT around 19z, and the southern 3 sites between 20z and 21z. /issued 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Cold front is draped just south of our CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will remain steady or even rise after midnight as the warm front surges north across the area. The next strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the CWA by the late morning and early afternoon.
431 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Low pressure will continue up the Ohio river valley this morning and is progged to be north of the forecast area by mid/late afternoon. Widespread rain ahead of the low will continue up until mid/late morning when the associated dry slot pivots over the region. Not much change is expected over the weekend as the sharp meridional pattern remains in place and maintains the large upper trough over the forecast area through the period.
Expect additional cooling on Friday and Saturday as an upper level trough develops over our region.
150 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 A big change in the weather will take place starting tonight as a large upper level trough of low pressure takes shape over the eastern third of the country. This large trough of low pressure will move into the Northeast and stall over the area this weekend.
357 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level flow will be from the north as a highly amplified ridge approaches. With the approach of the ridge, our 850 mb temperatures will have increased to around 11C to 14C by the time we reach peak heating, as we should get easily into the mid 70s under full sunshine. Tonight, lows will generally be in the 40s as a backdoor cold front tries to move toward the area from the northeast, but does not quite make it here by the end of Friday night.
245 AM MDT Fri May 5 2017 A large scale ridge dominated the Rockies and high plains overnight. Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail during the next 24 to 36 hours as the ridge slides east across the region. A deepening trough and Pacific cold front will move onshore by Saturday morning, with southerly low level flow gradually tapping into moisture late Saturday west of the Laramie Range. Warmer temperatures are forecast Saturday afternoon as 700mb temperatures peak between 10 and 13C. Could be flirting with a couple of records along the lower North Platte Valley and northern NE panhandle with highs in the mid and upper 80s.
At the surface, ridging extends through the Plains. Additional upper energy will dive down the backside of the trough today/tonight.
An upper level ridge over the region is in the process of breaking down and allowing an upper level trough to move into the region. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will slowly move east overnight and then shift to the eastern portion of the forecast area on Friday as a cold front pushes across the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday and there will be some breezy westerly winds developing.
242 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Broad upper low across the region this hour, with a smaller swirl travelling around that low and crossing the Deep South. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s for most locations.
403 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 The relatively quiet pattern will continue for the next several days across the forecast area as both surface and mid/upper level ridging dominate for the next several days. With troughing over the Great Lakes region and northwest flow aloft over the eastern half of Missouri, expect slightly cooler temperatures across central and eastern Missouri than areas further west toward eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
The expectation is that convection will hold off at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS until the cold front pushes east of the Cascades Friday afternoon. Cold front passage will also result in gusty winds up to between 25-30 kts at the TAF sites as well.
336 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Wx map shows intense low pressure at the surface and aloft spiraling across the Eastern U.
346 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Northwest flow aloft will continue today as a sharp upper ridge builds over the spine of the Rockies. Surface ridging this morning will be gradually replaced from west to east by a developing lee trough with winds turning southerly on the Caprock while light winds persist in the Rolling Plains. Temperatures will warm another increment today with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Heading into the weekend, a blocky trough-ridge-trough pattern across the lower 48 will keep synoptic features moving relatively slowly.
349 AM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Dry air over Colorado as the upper ridge axis is over the state. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today, with a few shallow Cumulus clouds over the mountains in the afternoon. An upper ridge axis is over the CWA on Saturday.
1259 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Quiet conditions in place across the area this afternoon, with upper air and satellite data showing well amplified northern flow in place, set up between ridging extending through the Rockies and low pressure moving into western Kentucky/Tennessee. At the surface, high pressure is centered just west of the CWA, keeping winds northerly. Well amplified northerly flow remains in place in the upper levels, though the ridge axis is gradually shifting further east, moving onto the High Plains Friday night. At the surface, that high pressure just off to the west will continue to drift east into the area tonight into tomorrow morning, and takes quite a while for the axis to push east of the CWA.
A highly amplified upper level ridge presently across the western CONUS will gradually shift east over the next couple of days. Any convective activity that develops upstream of the CWA should remain mostly to the west on Saturday afternoon with the ridge axis still extending into eastern Montana at that time. Upper ridge over the intermountain west will slide into the plains over the weekend with west coast trof splitting as it moves onshore.
159 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will slowly move through tonight into Friday, then continue to near Lake Ontario on Saturday. Another upper level trough will slide southeast out of Canada and merge with this system over the Upper Great Lakes over the weekend. Low pressure continues to meander around in the Ohio Valley at this time.
Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will continue as Deep South Texas remains between deep troughing over the Eastern CONUS with amplified mid level ridging building over the Rockies. This ridge will shift eastward through the period with flow aloft becoming more zonal in nature. Between the high pressure and dearth of any available moisture, rain-free weather and plenty of sunshine can be be expected. although it will be cooler near the coast.
The activity is associated with an unstable air mass ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through SE Oregon this evening and SW Idaho late tonight. Showers will continue in the cooler post-frontal regime through Saturday. The post-frontal air mass will be much cooler and enhance the winds on Saturday, with breezy northwest winds arriving by afternoon. Temperatures will be 15-25 degrees cooler on Saturday with highs only in the 50s to mid 60s.
High pressure over the region will keep winds light and variable tonight with winds slowly veering through the period. /issued 249 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):500mb low/trough across the southeast United States and 500mb ridge across the western U. high pressure across the state will provide clear skies across the CWA tonight into Friday.
341 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 The occluded upper-level cyclone continues to move slowly east across the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts will remain on the low side across most of the CWA, but some areas in northwest TN could pick up another quarter inch. However, a weak cold front is progged to move south into northwest TN by Saturday afternoon, continuing south during the evening hours.
402 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 A strong upper trough over the Southeastern CONUS will continue to move away from the area and towards the Mid-Atlantic states. In its place, an amplified upper ridge axis will gradually become centered over the Plains as the central portions of a developing omega block. This blocking pattern will become well entrenched by Saturday morning and will dominate our weather for the next several days.
1238 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 A weak trough axis lies across the forecast area this afternoon, which has produced showers over portions of the MN Arrowhead this afternoon. Expect temperatures to be warmer than last night with warm air advection going on aloft, so have gone with some low to mid 30s up the north shore and inland Arrowhead, but then mid and upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere. This should also mix down some dry air and have concerns for fire weather conditions for areas north of the Iron Range with RH values dipping into the low 20s.
419 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 For the short term, a weak cold front extends across the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. Looking aloft a nearly full latitude narrow h500 ridge extends across the central US diverting any precipitation away from the northern plains in the short term. Beneath the ridge a rather modest surface pressure pattern will maintain light winds across the region. High temperatures will be impacted by the backdoor cold front late this afternoon northeast.
1105 PM MDT Thu May 4 2017 Strong upper ridging building over the northern Rockies through Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the low 70 to around 80 warming to the upper 70s to upper 80s on Saturday.
320 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level ridge over the Western U.
427 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 A cold front will cross the this morning. Associated strong low pressure moving into the Ohio River Valley will reach the Mid- Atlantic States today.
241 AM MDT Fri May 5 2017 A strong ridge will glide over the area today and Saturday. Conditions will remain about 10 degrees warmer than normal and dry. As the ridgeline passes east of the area Saturday morning, the flow aloft will shift to the south and southwest and gradually increase in speed.
317 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the Southeast CONUS continuing to lift northeast and away from the forecast area. Highs should climb into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon, and then rise back to more normal readings near 80 degrees tomorrow afternoon.
456 AM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level analysis has a long wave ridge over the Rockies creating northwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over CWA, with light winds and clear skies. Upper ridge will continue to build and slide eastward, becoming centered over the forecast area by Saturday. This will bring warmer conditions with temperatures 15-20F above normal this weekend.
543 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a short wave trough north of Lake Winnipeg. This will wave will move almost straight south through tonight as it drops into the back side of the upper level low spinning over the Ohio River Valley. This system does not look like it will bring much moisture into the region with it and the trajectories around the upper level low to the south are not favorable for moisture return into the area. For now, will keep the rain chances in the 20 to 50 percent range, with the highest values across the far eastern portions of Adams County this evening. Behind this system, Canadian high pressure will build in across the Upper Midwest.
127 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Coverage in rain will increase overnight as low pressure tracks northeast from Kentucky.
209 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Coverage in rain will increase overnight as low pressure tracks northeast from Kentucky.
FXUS66 KSGX 051036 AFDSGX 336 AM PDT Fri May 5 2017 A cold low pressure system will develop over Southern California during the weekend.
Mid afternoon surface map shows 1001 mb low pressure over western KY and giving brisk ne winds over central and southeast IL. Lows tonight in the low to mid 40s. On Saturday the strong cutoff upper level low around 540 dm over the eastern Great Lakes, with a short wave pivoting se across the western great lakes and into the ohio river valley.
313 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 At 07Z WV and IR imagery shows a deep upper trough and associated cyclones off over the eastern CONUS and a digging trough entering the western CONUS. With this highly amplified pattern, a very pronounced upper ridge is in place over the Rocky mountain region from south to north into Canada. At the surface for northeastern KS is the influence of a broad area of high pressure blanketing the Central Plains through the Southern Plains. The high temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s over the region with mixing heights around the 800mb level.
255 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a short wave trough north of Lake Winnipeg. This will wave will move almost straight south through tonight as it drops into the back side of the upper level low spinning over the Ohio River Valley. This system does not look like it will bring much moisture into the region with it and the trajectories around the upper level low to the south are not favorable for moisture return into the area. For now, will keep the rain chances in the 20 to 50 percent range, with the highest values across the far eastern portions of Adams County this evening. Behind this system, Canadian high pressure will build in across the Upper Midwest.
403 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level ridge axis was located over the North American Rockies will shift over the eastern Dakotas by 12Z Mon. Warm today ahead of cold front/wind shift. Then cooler for the next 84 hours.
238 AM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Imagery shows ridge/trof pattern from west to east across the CONUS with upper high centered over nrn Mexico and the low in the trof centered over MS/AL. Upper level amplified ridging continues across the FA with weak mid lvl moisture moving through the flow with some minor mainly terrain induced cloud at times. Strong capping and moisture in this ridging case not really 'dirty' enough either for for afternoon convective POPs >= 15 percent this afternoon. with lows ranging from around 30 to the lower 40s. Otherwise, the upper ridge axis passes east of the FA by Saturday morning with a developing deep closing trof entering the wrn CONUS and increasing, but modest, mid lvl moisture beginning to stream into wrn WY Saturday afternoon/evening. SFC P will be lowering with weak trofs/boundaries around the region.