Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. TODAY & TONIGHT: QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS KS. THIS CHARACTER WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE- TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
208 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
137 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER LAKE WINNIPEG INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN MONTANA WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RIDGE WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW PASSES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFFILIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE CONTINUE THE APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BREAK THIS AM.
/ISSUED 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA PUSHES SOUTH AND WASHES OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. /ISSUED 247 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC MAP THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A STRONGER PUSH BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED SAT MORNING LOOKS TO FORCE THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO BRIDGE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT CAUSING CAPPING TO DECREASE SH/TS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
A NARROW REGION OF CONFLUENCE (PER 850 MB STREAMLINES) TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW, AIDED BY BROADER SCALE LIFT FROM UPR VORT ADVECTION HAS GIVEN RISE TO A LINE OF LGT/MDT SHRA IN FAR NORTHERN AL THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING EAST EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
929 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NATURE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW LEVELS WERE FINALLY BECOMING SATURATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR ECHOES WERE TURNING INTO LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
/ISSUED 251 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN. WEAK FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING EAST WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN MOST OF OUR CWA. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS EWD ACROSS OREGON ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN OVERNIGHT. EXITING EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER AIR. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWERS INTO OREGON ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF CLEARING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
1006 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
939 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ITS ACCOMPANYING LOW WAS OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH TOWARDS I-94 BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. AND INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE LOW WAS GRADUALLY RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BLANKETING THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INCLUDING SE GA/NE FL.
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SFC RIDGING EXITS OUR REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING.
1054 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. THE FAR SE IS QUITE WARM NOW (77-80) BUT THEY TO WILL TRANSITION COOLER AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AS HIGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND BE LOCATED WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. SOME CLEARING FROM THE W/NW IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS TOMORROW AND HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER RAW BLENDS AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE THE SITUATION BEST. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND FOR TUE INTO WED AS THE AREA WILL BE IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED OVER SRN MS. WHILE WEAK RIDGING TO A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
BUT WE WILL LIMIT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE RADAR JUST WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA BRIEFLY.
MID CLOUD WILL THICKEN ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
654 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A COOL AND VERY DRY EAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BEEN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHLAND AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES SUNNY. A BAND OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
1132 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THEN INCREASE MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
833 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
759 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1100 AND 2000 THROUGH SUNRISE.
/ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO.
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
By the end of the week strong ridging will build over the region bringing a gradual warming and drying trend. Negatively tilted trof passage with cold pool aloft producing instability to utilize is still the scenario show by the short term models for Monday afternoon and evening so the mention of showers and thunderstorms in that interval remains the same with little to no modification. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: A mesoscale low pressure system will bring rain to most aviation areas tonight into tomorrow morning.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DAMPENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND SPILLING THICKER CIRRUS COVER THROUGHOUT THE SWRN CONUS. MODELS INDICATE ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING UNTIL A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AZ. THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH THIS TROUGH AS THE GFS AGGRESSIVELY CUTS OFF A LOW OFF THE SW CA COAST WHEREAS THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A PASSING TROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-65 FOR THE NIGHT. BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNS OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO. THE AREA OF LOCALIZED HIGH PRESSURE.
917 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
532 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR SLOT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH INCREASED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 60S. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT AND REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A SOLID MOIST LAYER IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
1051 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ REGION WILL SETTLE INTO WARM AND DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN WAKE OF MID/UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RESPITE WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX ON THU BRINING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
800 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
738 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND IN A COLDER PATTERN. AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS A BIT BETTER LATE MONDAY.
942 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND IN A COLDER PATTERN. AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS A BIT BETTER LATE MONDAY.
633 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 THE LOW LEVELS WERE FINALLY BECOMING SATURATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR ECHOES WERE TURNING INTO LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
850 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PLOWED THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH RESULTANT EAST AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. LEFT THE LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A MDT TO STG WLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGETOP WINDS IN THE EVENING WLY AROUND 30 KTS. STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
948 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 68 46 70 / 90 30 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 67 45 68 / 70 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 68 45 68 / 70 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 65 41 64 / 30 10 10 10.
758 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
THE FLATTENED VERSION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS RETREATED SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS THE REMAINING HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONCENTRATED WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. AND DEWPOINTS HAVE SNUCK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS PRODUCE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. THIS WILL SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUT THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLUSHY RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE SUNRISE BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF I-70.
1116 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH LEADING MID/UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS N/NERN TX TODAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON THURS WITH GOOD CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TRANSITIONAL SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48. HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTS AND SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF TROUGH PASSAGES.
HI-RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS ALSO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND GET ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE REMNANT TROUGH WILL GET CARRIED EASTWARD. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WNW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
Main area of rain is steadily advancing across Missouri, ahead of an upper low that is opening up over northwest Texas. Deep trof over the desert SW keeping split flow over the CONUS through the weekend.
12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE LIFTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO IOWA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS MOISTENING QUICKLY AFTER 08Z OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTH.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME. COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST THIS EVENING. WILL SEE MAX TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S. LAPSE RATES LOOK A LITTLE STEEPER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE RICHER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
631 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE THREE TAF SITES BY 12Z THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES AROUND 11Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
822 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
833 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET/EC MOS.
924 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FARTHER NORTH. ASIDE FROM COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
/ISSUED 304 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015/ QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ALL BUT STALLED. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LAKE REGION TOMORROW.
1055 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Latest satellite/radar imagery show upper-level trof that brought widespread clouds and areas of light rain/snow today is now in east-central MT and moving steadily eastward.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WAS MOVING INTO NRN BAJA/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. 300 MB DEFORMATION/TROUGH AXIS DOESN'T REACH THE NW CO UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
1059 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. A COASTAL TROUGH HAS TAKEN SHAPE LOCALLY. A WEAKENING CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARLATEX REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALOFT. COASTAL TROUGHING AND THE STRENGTHENING LIFT HAVE DEVELOPED A BLANKET OF LOWERING STRATUS OVER OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
831 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
1047 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
1038 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT.
Water vapor imagery loop shows complex, slow-moving upper low over the Southern Plains with rather complex precipitation areas in its vicinity. Northern stream upper trough then moves southeastward into the Central Plains Thursday afternoon, which should keep precip chances mainly in east central Kansas during that time.
MID/UPPER LOW THAT DROVE LAST NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION NOW. NEXT MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND CLOUD DECK ANTICIPATED TO STICK AROUND. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH MORE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES REGION AND MOISTURE BEGINS POOLING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOT OF THE PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
924 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
716 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS WELL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
701 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS EMBEDDED IN LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES THROUGH AS WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE TROF SHIFTS EAST WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SO FAR ROADS APPEAR JUST WET FOR NOW WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT PER AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SFC TROF WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ON THU INTO NORTHEAST NEB. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. AND A FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILE WE SHOULD SEE STRONG WARMING DURING THE AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. AS A SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER.