Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
VFR conditions prevail through tonight with high pressure settled in overhead. Tranquility prevails across the forecast area today into tonight with much lighter winds and sunny skies as high pressure sits overhead. This area of high pressure shifts east off the southeast U. Temperatures are bitterly cold this morning starting off in the lower to middle 20's inland and upper 20's to lower 30's along the coast and a freeze warning continues until 9am CDT for all locations. We warm into the upper 50's to near 60 today which is considerably warmer than yesterdays middle to upper 40's. Tonight temperatures are relatively warmer, with lows in the lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to near 40 along the coast.
Dew points increasing today as the high shifts off to the east and southerly flow becomes establish.
Precipitation will taper off by early Monday morning as high pressure moves back into the area.
Increasing westerly flow will get gusty this afternoon and early evening as an upper level trough approaches from over the Pacific NW. This storm will result in cooler temperatures Monday along with a few snow showers over northern and eastern areas.
431 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Summary: Mainly quiet and warmer weather is expected today.
Cooler with gusty westerly winds today as a system passes through the region.
Tranquility prevails across the forecast area today into tonight with much lighter winds and sunny skies as high pressure sits overhead. This area of high pressure shifts east off the southeast U. Temperatures are bitterly cold this morning starting off in the lower to middle 20's inland and upper 20's to lower 30's along the coast and a freeze warning continues until 9am CDT for all locations. We warm into the upper 50's to near 60 today which is considerably warmer than yesterdays middle to upper 40's. Tonight temperatures are relatively warmer, with lows in the lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to near 40 along the coast.
1040 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 No freezing temperatures occurred last night/early this morning across ECFL though Leesburg did tie their record low of 36F from 1983. N/NW winds this morning will veer NE as high pressure to the north pushes east to the Carolina coast and becomes stretched/ elongated E-W. High pressure over the Southeast US will produce northeast winds 15- 20 knots.
During the day today, a lee of the Rockies surface trof will continue to develop over Montana and gradually extend southeastward becoming a warm front over portions of the northern and central high plains, including western South Dakota and Nebraska. In this case, should see p-type diminish to just a freezing drizzle type of precipitation. By event's end, the GFS/NAM and RAP models all depict a 3 to 6 hour window of remnant deep super-cooled stratus from which additional light freezing drizzle may occur.
Temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday with highs in the 40s to near 50. No other changes at this time as clearing should allow temperatures to warm (more rapidly this afternoon) due to better mixing and continued influx of warmer air. Moisture will also increase in the lower atmosphere as warm air advection continues. Temperatures tonight will be much warmer than last night with lows close to freezing.
- A chance for snow arrives in mainly central MN as a warm front lifts northwards beginning this evening through Monday evening.
752 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Flat upper level ridging slides across the area today as high pressure centered in the Deep South shift to the southeast US coast this evening. allowing the high surf and high risk of rip currents to end at 2 PM.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky and this has kept the skies clear and winds light - perfect conditions for radiational cooling. As a result, combined with the fresh snowfall, the valleys have really dropped off to the single digits and near zero in some extreme cases while the light southwest winds on the ridges have kept them warmer - in the mid and upper teens.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Quite the chilly morning across the forecast area, as lows currently reside in the low and middle 20s areawide. The combination of weak ridging aloft building east through the region today, along with high pressure at the surface building through, quiet conditions will exist across the CWA today into tonight.
538 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Much warmer conditions are on tap the next several days, with highs this week frequently in the 50s and 60s. Lingering snow cover may hold down high temperatures a bit, but it should erode quickly, and highs in the lower to mid 50s are on tap today. Trailing end of a cold front just to our north will get hung up tonight, keeping us in milder overnight lows in the 30s. Upper low currently just off the Washington/Oregon coast will open up as it drops southeast early this week, with the flow becoming more split over the central U.
820 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow possible this afternoon mainly north of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Monday. With a snow pack in place and temps at or just above freezing, accumulations of an inch or less are possible. High temperatures will rebound as warm advection returns, with values in the low 30s to low 40s.
903 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow possible this afternoon mainly north of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Monday. With a snow pack in place and temps at or just above freezing, accumulations of an inch or less are possible. High temperatures will rebound as warm advection returns, with values in the low 30s to low 40s.
635 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A trough of low pressure aloft will bring a mid level wave into the area today, which will mainly affect temperatures and winds. The incoming wave will cause winds to turn to a more easterly and southeasterly direction this afternoon with a warm front expected to develop. South of the warm front temperatures will likely climb into the lower and middle 60s while near the warmer front close to I-90 highs will be closer to 50 to 55, likely a little lower where the higher snow cover still exists. Near highway 14 highs will likely get stuck in the lower to mid 40s.
254 AM MST Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and a continuation of the dry conditions.
An upper trough offshore will slide inland today with a weather system moving south of the area.
403 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Warmer weather over the last 24 hours has melted a lot of the snow over the northern counties, and the NAM model is probably overcompensating the leftover snow resulting in too cool of highs for This afternoon. The synoptic setup has an upper wave approaching late Sunday evening with a cold front driving though the westernmost counties by around midnight - and clearing the southeastern counties by around the post sunrise hours.
High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and a continuation of the dry conditions.
Forecast Highlights: -Warmer weather has arrived, and with that, elevated fire danger is possible in spots. At 09Z (which is now 4 AM CDT), surface maps showed a ridge of high pressure located along the Gulf Coast, and low pressure centered just north of the Minnesota and Canadian border. Lee side troughing was also evident in eastern Colorado. Aloft, H5 maps show a ridge over the Rockies and a trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Efficient WAA in the low levels should allow temperatures to soar into the mid and upper 60s for most locations, especially along and south of I-70. Further north where snow cover is more substantial early today, temperatures will be a touch cooler, but will likely still reach 60 degrees this afternoon. By tomorrow, the H5 trough mentioned previously will quickly advance into the central US.
333 AM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A chance for light rain or snow is expected across the area as a cold front pushes through. Upper ridging will become established across the western U.
GOES Water Vapor imagery early this morning shows a closed upper low moving onshore along the northern Oregon coast. Pockets of freezing rain will lead to slick spots across Lincoln and Flathead Counties and in the Seeley Lake and Potomac region, where temperatures are hovering in the upper 20s to low 30s. Snow levels will fall area- wide to around 3,500 feet this afternoon and evening as the upper level trough axis passes. Once again, isolated pockets of freezing rain are a concern across Flathead and Lincoln Counties. Southerly breezes will develop Monday afternoon as the next Pacific trough arrives onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
Dewpoints were generally in the lower 50s. Northeast winds near 25 knots were observed along the Gulf side of the Lower Keys.
639 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Summary: Mainly quiet and warmer weather is expected today.
418 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A much warmer day is expected across the Mid South as temperatures should warm well into the 50s.
607 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow is likely near and north of the Michigan border early today as a low pressure system tracks well to the north of the area.
Temperatures managed to climb into the lower 70s per guidance, with dewpoints already passing their minimums from early this morning, now already into the upper 50s. Over the next 24 hours, the lower tropospheric ridge quickly moves into the western north Atlantic, all the while maintaining an 8-9 mb gradient from Havana to Jacksonville.
This front will settle into portions of the area tonight before lifting back north as a warm front on Monday ushering in a day of even warmer temperatures. Warmer highs are expected Monday in the warm sector, and the extent of the warming will be tied to the degree of solar insolation. Monday night the High Plains low will shift east and usher in a cold front. Will have to watch for possibly some overlap of the drizzle with temperatures dropping below freezing later Monday night into portions of northwest Illinois and east central Iowa. The low level flow looks to quickly turn around to the south with semi-zonal flow aloft adding a downslope component off the High Plains.
911 AM PDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Strong westerly wind gusts are expected in the Kern County mountains and desert and over the higher terrain of Southeastern Tulare County this afternoon and tonight.
One last freezing/near freezing night expected tonight before the warming trend kicks in full force for the rest of the forecast period.
An upper trough will move eastward across the CWA tonight. Upper ridging is right behind it. The best synoptic scale energy with the trough will be over the CWA this evening, with strongest upward vertical velocity progged just south of the CWA. A cold front should move across this evening. Monday's highs look to be 5-7 C cooler than this afternoon's eventual highs.
1101 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow possible this afternoon mainly north of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Monday.
Did maintain flurries or freezing drizzle for areas near and north of the Hwy 14 corridor overnight where low level saturation looks most likely, but drier easterly winds will likely minimize any accumulations. Given the increasing cloud cover overnight, trended low temperatures slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Combined with breezy north winds, this will make for an initially gloomy, cooler day but still with temperatures near normal values. This yielded highs ranging from near 40 to the lower 50s, warmest in northwest IA.
312 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure moves off the southeast coast Monday.
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure moves off the southeast coast Monday.
On the other hand, still some differences in the higher resolution models where this snow band will set up, which is not surprising given the mesoscale/narrow nature of the band. The freezing rain/drizzle threat also appears to have lowered as well.
1231 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow possible this afternoon mainly north of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Monday. Low temperature will drop to near freezing or just below with warm advection continuing overnight. High pressure will dominate and put the area in a favorable position for plenty of warm advection to continue, though as a result mid- high level clouds will be prevalent. Long range model ensembles indicate temperatures will continue to trend up the remainder of the week with a swrn- CONUS trough and attendant downstream height amplification.
331 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 The surface pressure gradient will temporarily relax overnight as ridging aloft builds into the PAH forecast area, allowing southwesterly winds to subside to less than 10 mph and come out of the south after midnight. Winds are forecast to increase again in the well-mixed lower trop on Mon, ahead of a low pressure system the models forecast will split into northern and southern components as it moves eastward out of the central Plains.
Morning update Temperatures are still in the 30s across most of the Midsouth, but above freezing. No freezing temperatures are in the forecast for the next 7 days. /issued 630 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022/ A much warmer day is expected across the Mid South as temperatures should warm well into the 50s.
(Today and tonight) Today will be sunny and warmer for our area with gusty south or south-southwest winds, especially this afternoon. An upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will move southeast across the central Rockies early tonight. With this and wind speeds staying up (15-25 mph in the Big Country, 10-20 mph central and 10-15 mph south), temperatures will also be warmer tonight.
But, current radar mosaic continues to show some lingering snow showers (mainly east) as a secondary trough moves through the UP.
Monday, a cooldown compared to today as the associated cold front drops south and west. North to northwest winds increase to 15 to 25 mph that will usher in cooler air. The cold front will then back west to the foothills of the Rockies with the upper ridge strengthening and subsidence for clearing Monday night and lows mainly in the 20s.
207 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Mild today with warmer temperatures on tap.
With this and wind speeds staying up (15-25 mph in the Big Country, 10-20 mph central and 10-15 mph south), temperatures will also be warmer tonight.
1027 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Much warmer conditions are on tap the next several days, with highs this week frequently in the 50s and 60s. Lingering snow cover may hold down high temperatures a bit, but it should erode quickly, and highs in the lower to mid 50s are on tap today. Trailing end of a cold front just to our north will get hung up tonight, keeping us in milder overnight lows in the 30s. Upper low currently just off the Washington/Oregon coast will open up as it drops southeast early this week, with the flow becoming more split over the central U.
This has trended a bit southward compared to prior forecasts with the highest snow totals now expected between Watford City and Dickinson, east to between Garrison and Bismarck, and then along either side of I94 towards the Jamestown area.
/issued 752 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022/ Flat upper level ridging slides across the area today as high pressure centered in the Deep South shift to the southeast US coast this evening. allowing the high surf and high risk of rip currents to end at 2 PM.
At the surface, high pressure system over the Tennessee Valley will progressively move towards the western North Atlantic allowing persistent WAA. Under an enhanced radiational cooling scenario, minimum temperatures on Monday morning will be able to drop to the freezing point (still 10-15 degrees warmer than Sunday morning).
Upper trough will swing out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during the day on Monday. Associated surface cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma early Monday morning and then move south/southeast across the area during the day.
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A low pressure system is slated to move into south central SD this evening. There's still some uncertainty regarding whether or not the cloud layer will then be deep enough to support freezing drizzle or if precip will simply come to an end. Best guess is that areas from the James Valley east to the Sisseton Hills could see an hour or two of freezing drizzle or freezing drizzle mixing with light snow. Warm air will advect in from the west again on Monday, so while highs may only top out in the lower 30s in the northeastern forecast area, areas west river will see highs around 50 degrees. High pressure over the northeast will hold off any good mixing through the day.
1118 AM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough approaching from the Great Basin combined with a sfc lee trough will produce gusty sw-wly winds to around 35kt through 14/01Z from the central mt chain ewd, before briefly diminishing. Winds to increase again by 14/06Z especially over the higher terrain along/south of I-40 where gusts to around 40-45kt are possible while over nw and north central NM isold to sct light showers develop with occasional mt obscurations in mainly MVFR cigs. Potential for showers propagate into ne and east central NM with the upper trough aft 14/12Z where nly winds associated with a swd moving cold front gust to around 40-45kt. This storm will result in cooler temperatures Monday along with a few snow showers over northern and eastern areas.
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Much warmer conditions are on tap the next several days, with highs this week frequently in the 50s and 60s. Lingering snow cover may hold down high temperatures a bit, but it should erode quickly, and highs in the lower to mid 50s are on tap today. Trailing end of a cold front just to our north will get hung up tonight, keeping us in milder overnight lows in the 30s. Upper low currently just off the Washington/Oregon coast will open up as it drops southeast early this week, with the flow becoming more split over the central U.
100 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be sunny and warmer for our area with gusty south or south-southwest winds, especially this afternoon. An upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will move southeast across the central Rockies early tonight. With this and wind speeds staying up (15-25 mph in the Big Country, 10-20 mph central and 10-15 mph south), temperatures will also be warmer tonight.
250 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Another night of subfreezing temperatures is expected with a Freeze Warning in effect for Monday morning. After another chilly start to the day, warmer temperatures are expected on Monday with continued dry conditions.
The dry air will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid 30s tonight but the southerly flow will help keep conditions much warmer than previous nights. A low level low pressure system will be closing off across western Texas during the daytime hours with high pressure to the east leading to a strong southerly flux of moisture and warm air to central Indiana. Highs should reach into the low 60s across the board before a mild night Monday night as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 40s.
Latest hi-res models don't offer much pcpn in the Snake Basin the rest of today, and gradually decrease pcpn in the mountains, even as the main upper trough passes through. Cooler today under the upper trough. Clearing tonight as the trough moves away, then warmer under an upper ridge Monday, but increasing clouds from the west as the next Pacific storm approaches.
219 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will lead to relatively dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. Gusty southwesterly winds of 30-40 mph across the area at the moment should begin to decrease through late afternoon as the low level jet moves out of our area. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 30s. Weak mid level ridging will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Monday, leading to mostly sunny conditions.
No freezing or subfreezing temperatures are in the forecast for the next 7 days. Tomorrow should be even warmer and dry with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs in the low to middle 60s.
As a trough axis slowly exits the Northern Rockies scattered rain, snow, and graupel showers will continue into this evening, especially across north-central Idaho.
Monday will be calmer, with temperatures hovering just above average for this time of year as ridging builds back over the region.
Upper level trough continues to quickly move through the region bring areas of valley rain/high elevation snow. PoPs will quickly taper off as we move towards sunset as the trough departs and weak ridging builds back in.
1211 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow possible this afternoon mainly north of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Monday.
One thing that may keep the higher end localized amounts on the lower side is the dry northeast flow during the event.
1046 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley today, but should gradually subside this afternoon as a longwave trough pivots northeastward across northern New England and into the Canadian maritime provinces. The end result will be a much milder night (By 15+ degrees) and an even warmer day on Monday as highs return to the 60s. Meanwhile, an upper-trough will eject from the Four Corners region onto the Southern Plains and eventually the lower Mississippi Valley by Monday evening.
Have trended overnight low temps warmer with the expectation of the somewhat elevated wind speeds through the nighttime hours. This trough will deepen as it moves across the Colorado Rockies, likely closing off as it moves onto the central and southern High Plains. Meanwhile the upper trough, accompanied by a mid to upper level speed max, will bring sufficient mid level moisture and modest elevated instability to potentially produce some isolated to scattered rain showers spreading from the northwestern zones southeastward toward the southern Rolling Plains from late morning through the afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be substantially cooler, with temperatures maxing out in the mid 50s to low 60s.
1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Summary: Mainly quiet and warmer weather is expected today.
1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A trough of low pressure aloft will bring a mid level wave into the area today, which will mainly affect temperatures and winds. The incoming wave will cause winds to turn to a more easterly and southeasterly direction this afternoon with a warm front expected to develop. South of the warm front temperatures will likely climb into the lower and middle 60s while near the warmer front close to I-90 highs will be closer to 50 to 55, likely a little lower where the higher snow cover still exists. Near highway 14 highs will likely get stuck in the lower to mid 40s.
149 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 19z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into eastern NE and cold front into central MT. Water vapour matinee had trough over the Rockies, weakening as it moves eastward. Monday, slightly above normal temperatures expected as upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
Fairly extensive high cloudiness expected, especially northern CWA, so kept temps a few degrees cooler than what would normally be expected with 925mb temps so mild. Weak cold front will move south into the CWA Monday night, likely enhanced by Lake Michigan.
Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley today, but should gradually subside this afternoon as a longwave trough pivots northeastward across northern New England and into the Canadian maritime provinces. The end result will be a much milder night (By 15+ degrees) and an even warmer day on Monday as highs return to the 60s. Meanwhile, an upper-trough will eject from the Four Corners region onto the Southern Plains and eventually the lower Mississippi Valley by Monday evening.
The weather will be dry and mild under high pressure. Low temperatures tomorrow night will stay in the lower 30s.