Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridging will set up over the region for the next several days, leading to a continuation of the largely overall dry weather pattern.
As the upper low moves eastward expect the heavier precipitation to move into these areas, with hi-res guidance keying in on a potentially heavier band across southern Ellis/northern Roger Mills northeastward into Major and Alfalfa counties. The snow is expected to diminish as the upper low moves eastward this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue early this morning ahead of the low, while cooler air begins to flow into northwest Oklahoma behind the low. With temperatures generally near or above freezing, the accumulation rates will be very low (high water content). Most of the northwest half or so of Oklahoma will have the high temperature for today this morning, and central/southwest Oklahoma will see an abrupt downturn in temperatures this afternoon.
Today starts with the upper level ridge over the region shifting east into the great basin ahead of a system that brings precipitation to the coast late tonight. As this system moves in it will also draw in a weak to moderate atmospheric river at mid levels to augment the low level moisture feed from the Sacramento River valley.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread east of the Illinois River by Noon with good moisture return/theta-e surging north of the warm front. Temperatures today will surge into the low 60s across our south, while locations across our north only warm into the low-to-mid 50s. As mentioned previously, a strong TROWAL signature should contribute to moderate-to-heavy precip rates, but models are now showing a trend toward cooler temperatures by Thursday afternoon. As precip shifts east of the region Thursday evening, a monster upper-level ridge and expansive high pressure will begin to build into the region from the Plains.
Upper-level ridge builds over the region today keeping mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures in place.
(Today and tonight) This morning, a strong upper-level low pressure system was located over the Panhandle. Cooler temperatures can also be expected today, mainly in the 60s, but it may feel quite a bit cooler with the strong winds. Tonight, winds should diminish with a cooler and drier airmass moving in, allowing temperatures to fall to the upper 30s.
With sfc temps in the near or below freezing, will continue to periodically assess the area for heavier precipitation that may be leading to impacts. The remains of the potent closed upper low from early this week still meanders over MN into eastern Dakotas while continuing to weaken and open as it crawls eastward today. As the low exits, clouds are expected to lessen from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Upper ridging currently seen in WV imagery over the Northern Rockies into Canadian High Plains will build into the Dakotas advecting a very dry air mass comprised of PW less than 0. Ensemble guidance continues to paint a warm and breezy to windy end of the week as upper ridging and tightening pressure gradient develop across the northern plains.
Discussion: Two closed lows - one across the upper mid-west and a more powerful one across TX/OK continue to shift east of the region. Slight mid-level troughing for weak vertical motion and some upslope orographics for the north Laramie Range will support light snow showers this morning to mid-afternoon.
Wind speeds will begin to decrease as sunset approaches, but will not become light until Thursday afternoon after the low pressure system has moved well out of the region and high pressure spreads across the high plains. There is a chance of light snow across the far southern and southeastern portion of the forecast area south of a line from Cheyenne Wells, Colorado to Norton, Kansas that mixes with and changes over to light rain by mid day Wednesday as temperatures come above freezing.
623 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest radar imagery shows quiet conditions returning to the region as precipitation exits to the northwest, with temperatures hovering at or just below freezing. Much like yesterday, expect patchy to dense fog to be possible through mid-morning, with mostly cloudy skies forecast to prevail throughout the day as remnants of yesterdays upper level low continue to wobble eastward. Aside from this, models also show a robust upper level low over the central CONUS progged to move eastward throughout the day, causing severe storms to be possible across the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs today will be a touch warmer than yesterday, with values forecast to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Today will be dry with increasing high clouds and slightly warmer temperatures.
308 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The upper low continues to rapidly shift eastward into the Texas Panhandle early this morning and will continue to track eastward today. Upper ridging upstream of Colorado expected to build into the region with a gradual subsident and drying trend this afternoon and tonight. An upper level ridge will be over the area, Thu and Fri, with a dry pattern and gradual warming trend.
1041 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 High pressure continues across the area today, with continued warm and dry conditions this afternoon. A cold front will move through the area later tomorrow and tomorrow night, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, greatest chances north, and a few strong to severe storms possible. A cold front will then move through the waters with scattered to numerous showers and storms, some strong to severe and winds and seas increasing in the vicinity of the storms. Winds turn to the NW behind the front as high pressure builds.
426 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Updated forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning. Winds at Guadalupe Pass are below high wind criteria and are expected to remain below criteria so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. /issued 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ An upper trough currently centered over eastern New Mexico will move east today over the Texas panhandle and into Oklahoma. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are at the base of the trough with strong west winds across the area. Winds across the area are expected to become northwesterly to northerly today as the upper trough moves to the east. High temperatures today will be cooler ranging from the 50s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin to the mid 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande.
528 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A weak ridge of high pressure drifting south into the region will create a southeasterly low-level flow of moist air and some patchy drizzle and light fog on the ridges this morning. A large storm system centered near Oklahoma City this morning will move northeast to the Lower Ohio Valley by Thursday morning and spread a large shield of steady, moderate rain across the Commonwealth during the day Thursday.
/Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ Upper level low was spinning over east central New Mexico. This low looks like it is going to go further south than earlier model runs depicted. The low should track just south of the Texas Panhandle this morning and should move into southwest Oklahoma by afternoon. The cold pool aloft will be along the northwest edge of the upper level low and this is the area where the most snow is expected to fall. We are also going to add Armstrong and Hemphill counties to the Blizzard Warning given the further south track of the upper low. Winds will slowly decrease late this afternoon and tonight as the upper low continues to pull east of the area.
740 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight through Thursday night with crossing low pressure. The rain could taper off somewhat across portions of the area Thursday as a brief dry slot wraps around the ern side of the low. The low is expected to phase with a northern stream trough across the Eastern CONUS late Thursday night.
Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread through the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front.
543 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Water vapor shows upper low shifting from eastern SD into MN, with trof extending southwest through southeastern WY. Upper ridge is building into the western CONUS. Secondary circulation within trof overhead will track across northern NEB today, and will likely result in an uptick in light snow across central SD this morning. Upper ridge will build eastward into the central CONUS by the end of the week.
624 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 (Today and tonight) This morning, a strong upper-level low pressure system was located over the Panhandle. Cooler temperatures can also be expected today, mainly in the 60s, but it may feel quite a bit cooler with the strong winds. Tonight, winds should diminish with a cooler and drier airmass moving in, allowing temperatures to fall to the upper 30s.
Owing in part to extremely dry conditions, much cooler tonight with lows in the 40s.
628 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Upper low currently over eastern South Dakota will continue to shear to the east and away from the forecast area. For tnt and Thursday it should be mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the Northern Plains. A warmer airmass will slowly advect into the region through Thursday, with daytime highs gradually inching up each day.
329 AM MST Wed Mar 17 2021 A warming trend will occur over the next few days with a return to above normal temperatures by Thursday as high pressure builds across the region.
A warming trend will occur over the next few days with a return to above normal temperatures by Thursday as high pressure builds across the region.
530 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight through Thursday night with crossing low pressure. The rain could taper off somewhat across portions of the area Thursday as a brief dry slot wraps around the ern side of the low. The low is expected to phase with a northern stream trough across the Eastern CONUS late Thursday night.
1049 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic stretches west across Florida. The forecast calls for highs in the lower to mid 80s, mostly sunny skies by later this afternoon, and nil rain chances. From synopsis, a strong, broad area of high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through tonight. As the high slowly pushes eastward into the central North Atlantic on Thursday, breezes will slacken gradually.
More shower and thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon across northeast OK and northwest AR sites as the center of the upper low passes overhead. A cold front will also push through later this afternoon bringing breezy conditions that will continue through the night. Supercell currently across southern Sebastian county in western AR appears to be very near the warm front, and all modes of severe weather will continue with this storm for the next hour or 2. Cold core upper cyclone will track across northeast OK this afternoon and eventually into southern MO overnight. And finally, gusty surface winds will develop late tonight and continue overnight as the surface cyclone moves east of the region. Breezy and cool weather expected for Thursday, with a warming trend for late week and into the weekend as upper ridging builds across the central states.
High pressure over Arizona will deliver fair and warmer weather to northern Arizona for the remainder of this week.
The low-level ridge axis will be nudged south of Lake Okeechobee today as a powerful storm system moves east into the Deep South. Remaining dry tonight as overnight lows settle into the low to mid 60s.
1142 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Precipitation has largely tapered off early this morning as the strong mid-level closed low continues to exit to our south and east. In its wake, infrared satellite imagery reveals low clouds and patchy fog remain across the higher elevations with perhaps a leftover flurry or two. On Thursday, a large ridge of high pressure will build into the Intermountain West with the ridge axis located directly over the CWA by the afternoon. In response, southwest flow will boost high temperatures several degrees warmer than today and highs will end up a few degrees above normal. On Thursday night low pressure system will begin to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest while the ridge axis pushes out over the plains.
/24/ For the 17/12z TAFs, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a strong Pacific cold front/dryline is just entering the area. Behind the cold front, winds will become westerly and increase in speed to between 15 and 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
A trough was working it's way southeast through the area with scattered mix of snow/rain/sleet while a deep closed low was churning across the Southern Plains. The trough will continue drifting southeast, clearing the area this evening while that closed low makes it way through MO and south of the Ohio River Valley tonight into Thursday (keeping precipitation out of our area for overnight into Thursday). Some residual precipitation from that trough will still be possible across far northeast IA/southwest WI this evening but then dry out completely by midnight. Thursday looks to be a dry/breezy/slightly warmer day. Pressure gradient between that low to the south and high pressure build out of Canada will produce gusty northeast winds of 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph.
317 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Warm and dry high pressure continues through tonight. A cold front will then move through the area later Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
A cold front has moved well east of the area with dry air pushing into the area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler tonight and tomorrow with lows in the mid 40s to the 50s. Highs for Thursday will still range from the low 70s to near 80.
By mid-morning into the early afternoon, an intensifying deformation axis will swing northward roughly through Clark to Stafford counties, and if sub-freezing temperatures are able to push far enough east, there could be a window of opportunity for a narrow band of heavy, wet snow. And lastly, the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, as well as expanded westward. Behind this trough, ridging will build out west, and this feature will dominate the weather across southwest Kansas through the weekend.
Warm front to our south has been rather slow in terms of making northward progress.
But as cold front approaches and warm front continues to work its way northward and put most of the area in the more unstable warm sector, severe potential will increase. The high shear/helicity environment can generate a rotating updraft quickly, with thunderstorms having potential to go tornadic pretty quickly. An upper low will move across mid state region as Thursday progresses, with lingering scattered to numerous showers possible across especially northern locations.
VFR will prevail once the cold front and associated convection push through this afternoon into early evening. First of all did go ahead and issue a wind advisory across South Central Louisiana into portions of Central Louisiana where the low level jet will be most pronounced with good mixing.
Satellite imagery shows the upper level low over east central Oklahoma with some lingering wrap around moisture across the eastern half of the Panhandles. Tomorrow the Panhandles will be under northwest flow aloft with surface winds remaining from the north northwest as the closed low continues to move further northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Lingering breezy winds tomorrow in the eastern Panhandles with some mixing of the lower boundary layer winds. Temperatures today should rise in the upper 30s and even the lower 40s for areas that can break out of the cloud cover today and see some sunshine.
The weekend will be highlighted by fair and warmer weather, but rain chances will increase once again into the next work week as a broad long wave trough develops across the western CONUS. The precipitation should exit during the afternoon leading to Rockies upper level ridging nudging into the Upper MS Valley warming our temperatures and keeping much of the weekend dry.
This on northern periphery of the low passing to our south in combo with lingering frontogenetical forcing.
Near highway 14 with snow on the ground and lighter winds lows will be a bit cooler. Not impossible for a few snowflakes but roughly 1500 feet of air above freezing so a good chance to melt. All models indicating fairly significant drying from the northeast, especially Thursday afternoon, so a better chance for some sunshine and warmer temperatures. A ridge of high pressure at the surface oriented from northeast to southwest will slowly move through the area. This will keep morning lows on the cooler side, but still far from cold for this time of year. Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 20s, mildest in central SD where southerly flow begins to become established. And southerly flow will be the main story through the weekend as a trough digs over the Rockies.
Upper level analysis places low over Oklahoma, with ridge stretching from the Great Basin towards the Canadian plains.
Temperatures have held steady or slowly fallen across much of the area behind the cold front. Cooler and drier air mass settles in for tonight with lows in the upper 30s to near 40. Highs only in the low to mid 60s.
Convection was developing over eastern OK, just ahead of the low pressure system which will move northeastward into our forecast area this evening.
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 (Today and tonight) This morning, a strong upper-level low pressure system was located over the Panhandle. Cooler temperatures can also be expected today, mainly in the 60s, but it may feel quite a bit cooler with the strong winds. Tonight, winds should diminish with a cooler and drier airmass moving in, allowing temperatures to fall to the upper 30s.
An closed, upper level system of low pressure is spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest today.
An upper-level ridge will begin to build over the area tomorrow bringing calmer and warmer weather.
121 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Rain returns tonight and Thursday with crossing low pressure. A few snow showers will mix in as colder air arrives behind the low Thursday night.
The period opens with dry and above normal conditions ongoing in the CWA, while upper level ridging is over the region.
This may try to pull the stationary boundary northward ahead of the associated cold front which will move eastward through the entire area this evening. More severe thunderstorms could develop ahead of the cold front this evening with the best chance for tornadoes over north Mississippi. Some clearing will occur behind the cold front late tonight but more clouds and some showers are possible again on Thursday over parts of the area, especially northern areas, as a strong upper low moves across the area.
Lightning has been decreasing in NE AL per latest scans, but this convection is being driven by WAA and isentropic lift on the nose of a 30+ kt low-level jet which is advecting elevated instability northward along the low/mid level warm front. Believe that this elevated instability will spread into our area as the low-level jet further intensifies and the low/mid level warm front continues to lift N, so kept thunder in the grids with heavy downpours. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 66 46 58 40 / 100 40 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 70 46 54 36 / 90 80 60 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 69 44 55 36 / 90 80 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 72 43 53 30 / 90 90 80 30 10 TN.
Upper low currently over eastern South Dakota will continue to shear to the east and away from the forecast area. For tnt and Thursday it should be mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the Northern Plains. A warmer airmass will slowly advect into the region through Thursday, with daytime highs gradually inching up each day.
This will limit the high wind threat. By Thursday evening, the upper low will be over the central KY/TN border as it eventually fills and moves east over the Appalachians.
456 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Rain returns tonight and Thursday with crossing low pressure. A few snow showers will mix in as colder air arrives behind the low Thursday night.
/issued 426 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ Updated forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning. Winds at Guadalupe Pass are below high wind criteria and are expected to remain below criteria so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. /issued 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ An upper trough currently centered over eastern New Mexico will move east today over the Texas panhandle and into Oklahoma. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are at the base of the trough with strong west winds across the area. Winds across the area are expected to become northwesterly to northerly today as the upper trough moves to the east. High temperatures today will be cooler ranging from the 50s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin to the mid 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 259 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing a quite a bit of ridging building over the Rockies which is a big relief from our recent snowstorm that took place a few days ago. Even though the upper level ridge will bring quite a bit of sunshine along with higher sun angle, temperatures will be slow to recover, due to strong albedo effects.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge will be building over the area through Thu, with dry weather expected.
411 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic stretches west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. Deep cyclonic flow will spread east across the Appalachians tonight through Thursday night, eroding the western Atlantic ridge axis and driving a weak cold front southeast through the Gulf of Mexico.
1139 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Upper ridge is building over the Rockies with northerly flow over the forecast area. Back edge of upper trof over the southern Plains is producing some light precipitation over south central SD, which will diminish during the afternoon.
1050 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The upper low to our south continues its track into the Texas Panhandle today. Scattered light showers should persist in the in the high country through the afternoon, without significant accumulation. The upper low continues to rapidly shift eastward into the Texas Panhandle early this morning and will continue to track eastward today. Upper ridging upstream of Colorado expected to build into the region with a gradual subsident and drying trend this afternoon and tonight. An upper level ridge will be over the area, Thu and Fri, with a dry pattern and gradual warming trend.
-- Blustery Thursday, precip lingering south -- A fair amount of disagreement among mesoscale models and global ensembles remains regarding the amount of precipitation in southern Michigan tonight from the Ohio Valley low pressure system. Winds that are currently fairly light will increase Thursday morning, gusting up to 25 to 30 knots or higher with the highest gusts expected for the southern third of third of the state. Winds from the northeast 20 to 30 knots with stronger gusts are looking increasingly likely, as we will be sandwiched between well- developed low pressure over the Ohio Valley and high pressure north of Lake Superior.
339 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Tonight: Fairly quiet weather over our CWA today as compared to places to our south and southeast with ongoing convection ahead of a potent eastward moving upper low.