Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Weak ridging has moved in from the west overnight, but an embedded weak perturbation currently over northern Utah/southeastern Idaho will move through today with mostly mid to high clouds. With a ridge building in tonight, drying out the air aloft, strong radiation cooling will give us a cool start to Saturday, especially in the colder mountain valleys with some snow cover. Look for temperatures to warm rapidly after sunrise Saturday as the ridge builds in over the region. Southwest breezes will pick up late in the day with the approaching trough from the west and the ridge sliding eastward.
Ridge rebounds on Saturday ahead of a deeper trof pushing through the western states.
330 AM PDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers return Saturday with snow over the higher elevations. Precipitation will return late tonight and Saturday morning as the next trough moves in. Snow levels will lower to around 5000-6000 ft Saturday, and 3-6 inches of snow accumulation can be expected over the higher elevations with locally higher amounts.
117 PM PDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers return Saturday with snow over the higher elevations. Valley highs will warm to the low/mid-70s, or about 4 to 8 deg F above normal. Upper-level trough -- associated with a parent low located in the Gulf of Alaska -- will approach the West Coast overnight and into Saturday.
By afternoon, only PoP chances remaining should be over Nrn sections of the state as moisture wraps around the backside of the departing low pressure system. Heading into Saturday, upper level ridging and associated large scale subsidence will begin to build in from the W as Fridays unsettled weather exits the region. High pressure at the surface will move into the area and abundant sunshine will return.
1217 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The mid-level cyclone is moving across north central Oklahoma/ south central Kansas and will move northeast into Missouri this morning. There will be the potential of snow mixing with the rain in northern Oklahoma this morning, mainly underneath the cold mid-level temperatures of the mid-level cyclone or potentially with some heavier precipitation that can cool the column enough to support snow, but low-level temperatures only marginally support snow and the precipitation intensity is decreasing in western areas where it is a little cooler.
A dry northwesterly flow aloft is expected as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Otherwise warmer today with high temperatures running just a few degrees below normal. Upper level ridge will usher in warmer air for Saturday with highs in the 50s for northeast Colorado.
This ridge pattern will favor dry conditions through the short term forecast period. Areas across the urban corridor, foothills, and plains will drop to the lower 20s.
/Issued 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ High pressure will gradually build in across the region through tonight which will allow for gusty northwest winds to subside. Gusty winds today and low humidity will support continued fire spread despite the cooler temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 A low pressure system sliding from MO toward the Great Lakes today and tonight is bringing a cold front through the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s as the front works eastward, and then tomorrow will be cooler with MaxT's in the mid to upper 60s.
Upper low currently in the Mid Mississippi River Valley to quickly become absorbed in the general longwave trough from the Great lakes into the W Gulf tonight with Deep South convective complex moving away from N FL while cold front moves through the NW-C Gulf tonight. Upper trough to push cold front through the area late Saturday through Saturday Night with a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf and Nature Coast where SPC continues the marginal risk of strong to severe storms in the region of stronger dynamics.
157 PM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Water vapor shows a weak northern stream trof moving out of the Northern Rockies, with large scale ridge building into the western CONUS. At the surface, trof is tracking across the western Dakotas. Temps will continue to warm through the weekend as western CONUS ridge nudge eastward and trof digs into the far western states.
Later tonight through Saturday, an upper trough axis will drift slowly eastward. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, and clouds will limit heating on Saturday with highs mostly in the lower 50s.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures this morning are expected to be around freezing for most with continued north winds behind yesterday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday night rebound and almost all locations should remain above freezing overnight Friday. Mid-level ridging returns by Saturday and afternoon temperatures respond accordingly. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are anticipated and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande should climb into the 80s.
The cold front is still well behind this rain near MO/AR. The main threat will be a few strong wind gusts mixing down or possibly even a rotating storm or two due to the high wind shear. GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 49 59 39 65 / 80 50 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 52 60 41 62 / 60 40 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 50 58 39 64 / 50 50 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 53 63 39 59 / 40 30 10 20 10 TN.
An upper ridge will move into the area today for dry conditions and light winds. High and mid level clouds increasing from the west this afternoon and tonight ahead of an upper level trough. A cold front will spread precipitation into eastern Oregon Saturday morning and central and southwest Idaho Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temps a tricky as western sections could see some breaks in the low cloud cover later this afternoon, but overall a rather raw/breezy mid-March day.
After the exit of tonight's wave, ridging builds again which will continue the warm temperatures for Saturday. However, lower level wind speeds shown on forecast vertical wind profiles are a bit on the high side and subsequently the thermo profiles aren't quite saturating at the surface on forecast soundings. Similar high temperatures to today are expected on Saturday, though the progression of the next warm front may not reach the central-east until the evening, which may temper the highs east o the front.
309 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 High pressure bringing quiet weather to the area will give wave to a weak and dry cold front overnight. Lows in the low to mid 20s with highs tomorrow similar to today across MN with temps a bit higher with better mixing in eastern ND tomorrow afternoon and less clouds than today.
Winds are expected to relax this evening and early tonight as high pressure begins to move in from the northwest.
Saturday is setting up to be a mild day, under warm southwesterly flow, ahead of an approaching cold front. Model guidance agree that the cold front will be vigorous with rapidly dropping temperatures and gusty winds.
317 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Low pressure will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois tonight. As the system departs, breezy and much cooler weather will be on tap for Saturday. with a warm front arcing eastward across central Illinois. As the low tracks northeastward, NAM CAPEs increase to around 500J/kg along/south of I-70 late this afternoon/evening, setting the stage for a few stronger cells potentially capable of gusty winds and small hail. As the low tracks into Indiana, winds will veer to the northwest and temperatures will crash. to the lower 40s east of I-57.
Southerly to southwesterly winds ranging between 10-20kts with gusts up to 25kts will decrease throughout the afternoon, shifting northwesterly as a cold front moves through the region.
Little if any snow accumulation is expected as this trough passes overhead. There are patchy high clouds ahead of the wave, but for the most part it is mostly sunny allowing for highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Those clouds will clear the area tonight as a ridge builds back in from the west. The ridge continues to build in tomorrow therefore high temperatures will increase by 5 to 10 degrees.
This will keep the low level gradients elevated enough for windy conditions for the wind-prone areas like Arlington and Bordeaux.
(Through tonight ) Satellite depicts the upper low over northeast Missouri with a lobe of vorticity still hanging back across western Kansas. Shower activity associated with the Missouri cyclone has moved well east of the area with a few echoes showing up on radar with the approaching wave. Lighter winds and clearing skies will aid radiational cooling with parts of northeast Oklahoma dropping below freezing with mid 30s common elsewhere.
1216 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front has crossed across West Central Texas early this morning, with strong pressure gradient keeping the gusty winds in place. Cooler today behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
Temps will remain near or slightly above the freezing mark where the snow does fall, limiting the potential for amounts to add up.
147 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Early this afternoon an upper low was over SW Missouri with energy and associated convection moving northeast across our area.
1105 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. Large scale ridge builds over the Rockies/Northern Plains Friday into Saturday as trof digs into the western CONUS.
(Saturday night through next Friday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
Tomorrow will be fairly pleasant as we see plenty of sunshine and rising heights, leading to high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s across the area.
1130 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Weak ridging has moved in from the west overnight, but an embedded weak perturbation currently over northern Utah/southeastern Idaho will move through today with mostly mid to high clouds. With a ridge building in tonight, drying out the air aloft, strong radiation cooling will give us a cool start to Saturday, especially in the colder mountain valleys with some snow cover. Look for temperatures to warm rapidly after sunrise Saturday as the ridge builds in over the region. Southwest breezes will pick up late in the day with the approaching trough from the west and the ridge sliding eastward.
Upper flow tonight will remain out of the northwest as upper ridging builds over the Rockies. Upper ridging will eventually move overhead by tomorrow afternoon/evening and, along with light southwesterly winds, will help warm temps into low/upper 70s area wide. Overnight lows will likely be a few degrees cooler than what we saw this morning thanks to clear skies and light surface winds.
As the system moves northeast to Quebec during the short term period, the upper level low will devolve toward being an open wave in the broader flow. A ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to being the extended.
1128 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Not a whole lot to discuss in the near term forecast, as ridging has developed across the region. Saturday will be warmer and dry during the day.
A cold front will move into western counties toward dawn, with chance for showers and storms increasing along it.
The cold front is still well behind this rain near MO/AR. The main threat will be a few strong wind gusts mixing down or possibly even a rotating storm or two due to the high wind shear. Showers will continue off and on overnight as a cold front approaches. Northwesterly winds will increase early tomorrow morning behind the cold front. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 59 39 65 39 / 50 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 60 41 62 37 / 40 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 58 39 64 37 / 50 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 63 39 59 35 / 30 10 20 10 0 TN.
Low level ridging has moved in from the east and has brought with it drier air. However, current temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year, running about 4 to 6 degrees warmer. An associated surface feature will move into the eastern Great Lakes region with a trailing, decaying cold front.
301 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 High pressure and drier air will build back into the region behind the low pressure pulling away to the northeast. The northern edge of the forecast area will be on the edge of the lingering cloud cover with cyclonic flow around the low. Early morning low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s. Saturday night a weak trough associated this morning's (Friday) severe storms will lift out of the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous couple of nights, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
918 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Midlands Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
A warming trend Saturday as upper ridging build over the region.
Satellite and regional radar presentations show activity to our west has struggled this afternoon, likely in response to warmer air aloft, and weaker lapse rates. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 56 38 67 39 / 40 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 56 38 64 38 / 30 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 56 38 65 38 / 40 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 60 37 61 34 / 20 10 20 10 0 TN.
Temps have not fallen off as fast this evening as winds from the southwest have also not dies off as a cold front approaches from the west. As the system moves northeast to Quebec during the short term period, the upper level low will devolve toward being an open wave in the broader flow. A ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to being the extended.
expect CIGs to lift overnight and especially for Sat as high pressure moves into the region.
High pressure was in control across the Northland this afternoon. A large area of low pressure in eastern Missouri was spreading some fringe higher clouds over the southern reaches of the area as well. High pressure will remain in control for the weekend bringing dry conditions.
Outflow boundary with gusty winds and cooler air has spread across much of forecast area, pushing temperatures below forecast lows for Tonight.
High pressure bringing quiet weather to the area will give wave to a weak and dry cold front overnight. Lows in the low to mid 20s with highs tomorrow similar to today across MN with temps a bit higher with better mixing in eastern ND tomorrow afternoon and less clouds than today.
702 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Low pressure will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois tonight. As the system departs, breezy and much cooler weather will be on tap for Saturday. with a warm front arcing eastward across central Illinois. As the low tracks northeastward, NAM CAPEs increase to around 500J/kg along/south of I-70 late this afternoon/evening, setting the stage for a few stronger cells potentially capable of gusty winds and small hail. As the low tracks into Indiana, winds will veer to the northwest and temperatures will crash. to the lower 40s east of I-57.
A low pressure system sliding from MO toward the Great Lakes today and tonight is bringing a cold front through the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s as the front works eastward, and then tomorrow will be cooler with MaxT's in the mid to upper 60s.
Warmer with Fire Weather Concerns this weekend: A rapid warm up is anticipated this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the Plains.
/22/ Prior discussion below: High pressure and drier air will build back into the region behind the low pressure pulling away to the northeast. The northern edge of the forecast area will be on the edge of the lingering cloud cover with cyclonic flow around the low. Early morning low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s. Saturday night a weak trough associated this morning's (Friday) severe storms will lift out of the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous couple of nights, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Early this afternoon an upper low was over SW Missouri with energy and associated convection moving northeast across our area.
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period underneath high pressure.
Some pva within the approaching trough could lead to some light shower activity late tonight.
900 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 A cold front is currently pushing through the area and based on SFC/Satellite observations it is near the I-65 corridor and moving eastward as of 02z. A low pressure system sliding from MO toward the Great Lakes today and tonight is bringing a cold front through the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s as the front works eastward, and then tomorrow will be cooler with MaxT's in the mid to upper 60s.
512 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Rain chance returns tonight, and will linger through the weekend with the encroachment of low pressure.
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 (Through tonight ) Satellite depicts the upper low over northeast Missouri with a lobe of vorticity still hanging back across western Kansas. Shower activity associated with the Missouri cyclone has moved well east of the area with a few echoes showing up on radar with the approaching wave. Lighter winds and clearing skies will aid radiational cooling with parts of northeast Oklahoma dropping below freezing with mid 30s common elsewhere.
The water vapor pictures show it to be associated with weak upper troughing. This ridge pattern will favor dry conditions through the short term forecast period. Areas across the urban corridor, foothills, and plains will drop to the lower 20s.
953 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Strong post-frontal winds will continue to wane below 10 mph overnight as the closed low over northern Missouri gradually shifts to the northeast. Drier air will wrap around the periphery of the closed low, allowing minimum temperatures to fall below normal. High cloud cover will also vary in coverage as some dry air wraps back around an area of low pressure that is shifting northeast towards the Midwest Region.
753 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will shift northeast through the region tonight as low pressure approaches the area. This low will track through the Great Lakes Saturday offering lingering showers.
An approaching storm system will bring increasing winds ahead of a cold front along with a needed mix of rain and snow to much of the state Saturday.
850 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 The Atlantic ridge is continuing to build into the Florida Keys and coastal waters through the depth boundary layer. This should is beginning to advect over our region along the base of the ridge as the ridge builds in, and should stay in residence through the weekend, thus greatly reducing rain chances through the weekend (no pops will be included in forecast). While high temperatures have been a few degrees above normal, the low temperatures have been running 6-8 degrees higher than normal for the past several days. With no cold front or drier surface layer expected, the trend of higher minimum temperatures will continue at least through the weekend.
/22/ High pressure and drier air will build back into the region behind the low pressure pulling away to the northeast. The northern edge of the forecast area will be on the edge of the lingering cloud cover with cyclonic flow around the low. Early morning low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s. Saturday night a weak trough associated this morning's (Friday) severe storms will lift out of the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous couple of nights, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Nonetheless, the highest chance looks to be west of I-4 (KLEE), with patchy fog and/or stratus elsewhere.
1021 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will shift northeast through the region tonight as low pressure approaches the area. This low will track through the Great Lakes Saturday offering lingering showers.
As the winds turn more from the north, slightly cooler air will settle in and the showers will be pushed further toward the southeast as they diminish.
231 PM MST Fri Mar 18 2022 High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.
550 PM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Dry northwest flow aloft tonight gives way to a ridge of high pressure Saturday.
211 PM PDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Precipitation associated with a low pressure system will overspread Central California from late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle as high pressure settles ver the region. Winds are expected to relax this evening and early tonight as high pressure begins to move in from the northwest.
Saturday is setting up to be a mild day, under warm southwesterly flow, ahead of an approaching cold front. Instability is forecast to be sufficient enough for a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of and with the cold front, which pose the threat of gusty winds. Model guidance agree that the cold front will be vigorous with rapidly dropping temperatures and gusty winds.
511 PM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Water vapor shows a weak northern stream trof moving out of the Northern Rockies, with large scale ridge building into the western CONUS. At the surface, trof is tracking across the western Dakotas. Temps will continue to warm through the weekend as western CONUS ridge nudge eastward and trof digs into the far western states.
315 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Mild, dry weather returns for the weekend, with Sunday the warmer weekend day.
Some wet snow flakes will likely mix in over our northern fcst area this aftn due to nw flow caa and cooler thermal profiles overall up there. Pcpn will gradually end this evening as the low moves further away from our region. - Rain and possibly some mixed precipitation midweek - A strengthening low pressure system will move ne from the Plains states toward our area for midweek.
As the next trough of interest moves into the Great basin region on Sunday, lee troughing will tighten up the sfc pressure gradient over the region resulting in stout SSW winds.
As mid level heights build on Sun, generally high surface pressure, centered over the Deep South, will get established over us, providing sunny/clear and noticeably warmer conditions with light winds into Sun night.
Across our west temperatures are near or just above freezing, but cloud cover is increasing and we may see them level off before dropping again later tonight on the back side of the weak short wave moving over the Dakotas. High pressure bringing quiet weather to the area will give wave to a weak and dry cold front overnight. Lows in the low to mid 20s with highs tomorrow similar to today across MN with temps a bit higher with better mixing in eastern ND tomorrow afternoon and less clouds than today.
As of early this morning, a cold front is moving inland from the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The front will make its way into the Northern Rockies later today along with a trough of low pressure.
We won't stop there - temperatures on Sunday could flirt with 80 degrees in some spots as ridging builds overhead and another storm system digs near the Great Basin.
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period underneath high pressure. The cold front has brought significantly drier air to the area with RH values in the 30's and 40's throughout the area currently. However, this cold front did not have a significant amount of cold air advection with temperatures near average today. Near average temperatures will be expected through to the end of the period with high pressure building into the area over the weekend.
458 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers will persist today into tonight as upper level low pressure tracks through the area.