Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early morning surface and satellite observations show a cold frontal zone pushing southward through the region out of southern Manitoba. The leading edge of this front is delineated by a stronger push of cooler air, increasing surface winds with gusts into the 15-20 knot range, and developing scattered low/mid level stratus.
807 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. An upper trough across the Central CONUS/Plains region is expected to deepen today. Showers should overspread the region again with the approach and passage of the trough.
Current temperatures are considerably milder across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago and range from the lower to mid 20s in the mountain valleys to the mid 40s to mid 50s (mid 60s locally along the western edge of the valley) across the Central Valley. High pressure will continue dry and mild weather this week.
An upper level ridge builds in from the west towards the end of the week and will begin to see temperatures on a warming trend heading into the weekend.
The biggest rain threat today will come from showers/storms developing out ahead of the main cold front. By tonight as the cold front approaches expect a lower cloud deck to move into our northern terminals overnight, producing MVFR conditions.
Should lead to a pretty chilly overnight as center of high pressure advects across the area. Wednesday is likely to be a bit cooler east, but milder west. Have a feeling inherited guidance is underdoing the magnitude of the warmth once again, so blended in a bit of the higher end guidance to bring readings up a couple degrees. An upper level low pressure trough will slowly drop south and out of the region tonight into Tuesday morning taking the light snow with it.
A north wind will gradually increase in speed through the morning ahead of strong cold front. /issued 338 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ The cold front from yesterday evening has cleared the entire region which has allowed some colder air to filter into the area. An upper level system will dive south across the forecast area this afternoon which will help to bring another cold front through the area.
229 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020 Snow is exiting the forecast area this morning as high pressure moves into eastern Montana. The high moves to the east tonight. A warm front moves across the region on Wednesday which could bring a chance of light rain or light snow.
The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and a cold front to the northwest. The area will be on the east side of a broad upper trough. Waves of energy will pivot through this upper trough Today, which will help initiate rounds of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Southwest flow aloft and at the surface ahead of the next trough currently over the Plains will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s today with mostly cloudy skies. Unfortunately, this dry weather won't last as rain chances increase this evening as the aforementioned upper level trough and an associated cold front pushes through the region. In addition to the precipitation chances Wednesday, winds will be quite gusty due to strong high pressure approaching from the northwest tightening the pressure gradient. With cold advection in full effect, highs Wednesday will generally be in the lower 40s.
This wave is associated with a trough deepening into the mid MS Valley. Period starts out with another short wave bottoming out over the region in the large upper trough over the eastern U.
The deep upper trough that has been approaching the central Plains from the north was closing off as it moves into far northwest Kansas early this morning. As the upper low tracks into central Kansas today, a trough rotating around the west side of the low will sweep south over western Kansas. The broad upper trough over the central and eastern part of the country will slide farther east with the upper level ridge building east out of the Rockies later this week.
Should lead to a pretty chilly overnight as center of high pressure advects across the area. Wednesday is likely to be a bit cooler east, but milder west. Have a feeling inherited guidance is underdoing the magnitude of the warmth once again, so blended in a bit of the higher end guidance to bring readings up a couple degrees.
Cloud cover and rainfall will keep afternoon temps in the 70s to around 80 degrees in affected areas with highs mostly in the low/mid 80s elsewhere along with continued southerly winds, breezy at times during the afternoon.
There could be a couple of tenths of snow for the higher elevation starting tomorrow afternoon.
Building upper level ridge will then bring partly cloudy skies this afternoon along with some afternoon westerly breezes.
Light snow possible in portions of far southern Iowa this evening into tonight as a low pressure system skirts the area. Discussion At 20z GOES water vapor imagery depicts a strong pv anomaly digging south through the central High Plains, part of broader synoptic scale troughing encompassing the central tier of the conus. Trough pushes east on Wednesday and northwesterly flow aloft becomes established for the next several days.
Fair and warm weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
/issued 525 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ A cold front moving through the area this morning with a brief gusty north wind behind it and some patchy stratus with MVFR cigs. /issued 402 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ An upper-low, which is now located over the Central Plains, has sent a cold front surging southward. High temperatures are expected to be much cooler today only reaching the 40s and 50s w/a few 60s further south. Strong CAA will continue into Wed morning where temperatures will plunge into the low to mid 20s.
For now, central Laramie county could see another 1 to 3 inches of snowfall by the end of the day with the highest amounts still expected in the northern portions of the county. Current GOES-East nighttime microphysics imagery shows a picturesque comma shaped low pressure system. The trough has been progressive and with its latest movement trends conditions are expected to improve by this evening. As the upper level trough continues to move to the east, upper level flow orients straight north to south over the high plains.
1220 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Main concern is the impact from a combination of snow and wind today into early evening as an upper trof/low digs southward into Kansas. Darmofal A moderating trend still looks reasonable into the upcoming weekend as the eastern CONUS longwave weakens/moves eastward allowing a more progressive westerly flow over the Plains and troughing across the West. Upper low is moving across the area at this time, with narrow band of heavy snow along northern periphery of circulation.
However, it may feel a bit cooler due to the cirrus shield blocking much of the sun's warmth. A low pressure system is still situated to our north across the Ohio Valley with a surface cold front stretching south-southwestward through GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
A frost advisory remains in effect until 9 am pst and most of the highlighted locations of the frost advisory are near freezing this morning. A thermal trough will develop today, then strengthen Wednesday.
Where clouds have prevailed this morning, temperatures have been in the middle to upper 50s, while temps have climbed into the lower 60s where skies have cleared. /issued 350 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ This morning's GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery indicates a long wave trough extends from the West Coast into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will progress rapidly southeastward and is expected to move through the CWA overnight tonight. The remainder of the week looks relatively quiet with northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure centered over the region at the surface.
Light showers are beginning to approach the coast at this hour and this activity is expected to spread eastward through the day as the warm front associated with the system moves northward. The warm front will bring snow levels up to around 4000-5000 feet in the Olympics and Cascades. Winds will then remain relatively light through midweek, with weak high pressure over the region.
205 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 A strong mid-level jet extended from swrn NM-far W TX with an assocd shrtwv trof across srn NM. The attendant cold front will follow in wake of shrtwv trof arriving in the far nw CWFA later this afternoon, it will then sail on thru the Trans Pecos before 12Z/Wed, courtesy a 4-7mb/3hr isallobaric high. A glancing blow from a front is possible across parts of the n-e PB Fri, with warmer conditions elsewhere. Even warmer Sat 70-75, Sun 75-80 (windy), except warmer along Rio Grande and cooler most areas Mon. Windy conditions are possible Sat-Mon (especially Sun) and at least elevated fire wx concerns are in the offing with potential for a return of wetter and cooler wx into Tue.
Clear skies over the area as an upper ridge axis transits the Pacific NW. High temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with lighter winds across the region.
239 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 An upper level low is positioned over the central CONUS this afternoon with a trailing trough axis extending into the desert southwest.
Breezy northeast winds and briefly cooler temperatures are expected today, before temperatures warm up later in the week. A dry cold front will push down across the Northland today with cooler daytime temperatures and gusty north-to-northeast winds, especially along and just south of higher terrain features.
High pressure allowing for generally clear skies across our region this evening.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicated a mid-level circulation centered across KS with an additional trough sliding southeast from the Canadian prairies.
1109 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. An upper trough across the Central CONUS/Plains region is expected to deepen today. Showers should overspread the region again with the approach and passage of the trough.
The lowest clouds have been trying to break out a bit over the past hour or two as gradually drier air works into the region behind the occuluded front that is slowly making its way east. MVFR will return between 09 and 13Z as a cold front approaches, first at CHA then working towards TYS and TRI. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 53 30 45 29 / 0 40 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 53 29 42 29 / 10 70 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 51 29 42 28 / 20 70 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 54 29 39 24 / 10 80 60 0 0.
1012 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Another cold front is moving through the Mid-South this morning and will shift winds from the northwest for the remainder of the day. Southwest flow aloft and at the surface ahead of the next trough currently over the Plains will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s today with mostly cloudy skies. Unfortunately, this dry weather won't last as rain chances increase this evening as the aforementioned upper level trough and an associated cold front pushes through the region. In addition to the precipitation chances Wednesday, winds will be quite gusty due to strong high pressure approaching from the northwest tightening the pressure gradient. With cold advection in full effect, highs Wednesday will generally be in the lower 40s.
North winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue, ahead of a secondary cold front overnight. However, another cold front coming down tonight will increase N winds back into the 12-17 KTs with gusts of 20-25 KTs. /issued 224 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ (Today and Tonight) As of 1 am, a cold front is moving south across the northern Concho Valley/northern Heartland, with gusty northerly winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 30 mph behind it. Another, stronger cold front will come down this evening, bringing an additional push of cold air, with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s/low 30s.
154 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 An upper level low pressure system was located over south central Kansas. Temperatures over extreme southeast Kansas into western MO were in the low 40s, with mid to upper 30s across the remainder of the CWA. 2) Cooler temperatures through the end of the week.
/issued 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ Another cold front is moving through the Mid-South this morning and will shift winds from the northwest for the remainder of the day. Southwest flow aloft and at the surface ahead of the next trough currently over the Plains will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s today with mostly cloudy skies. Unfortunately, this dry weather won't last as rain chances increase this evening as the aforementioned upper level trough and an associated cold front pushes through the region. In addition to the precipitation chances Wednesday, winds will be quite gusty due to strong high pressure approaching from the northwest tightening the pressure gradient. With cold advection in full effect, highs Wednesday will generally be in the lower 40s.
929 AM PST Tue Feb 25 2020 Fair and warm weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
240 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 (Tonight and Wednesday) Secondary cold front will make its way across West Central Texas tonight.
Today through Wednesday A low pressure system skirted the forecast area, just off to our west and south today. High pressure will filter in behind the departing upper level disturbance, keeping us dry through midweek. Highs on Wednesday should remain in the low to mid 30s under mostly sunny skies.
Dry conditions expected today with high temps in the low to mid 60s. West to northwest winds will increase in strength behind the cold front for most of the E TX and SW AR sites at the end period. Then, around sunset, a cold front will enter in our northwest zones and sweep quickly southeast across the region.
Wednesday looks quiet with slightly warmer temperatures than Tuesday with warm air advection and weak southwesterly flow continuing. A trough develops across eastern Montana Wednesday.
There is a trough over the eastern half of the US and a ridge over the western half.
913 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week.
It will be dry today with perhaps some sun peeking through the low pesky clouds. Unfortunately the low clouds will hang around for the day.
237 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 A strong, positively-tilted trough is located over the central CONUS with a closed low spinning over KS/OK. The associated direct thermal circulation will enhance the large scale forcing for ascent tied to the differential vorticity advection downstream of the approaching trough. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing and will preclude any accumulation potential.
/TW/ A longwave trough axis will remain across the Great Plains today with a surface frontal boundary draped from coastal Mississippi into southeast Alabama. 850mb temperatures remain warm in the 8-12 C range as the bulk of the cold air remains confined to the Great Plains, so expect decent warming this afternoon with highs climbing into the low to upper 60s. The main upper trough axis will approach the area tonight and this combined with PWATS of around. Lows will fall into the low/mid 40s for most of the area. The deep trough aloft moves over the region tomorrow and temperatures continue to drop behind todays front/low pressure system.
FXUS66 KSGX 251722 AFDSGX AM PST Tue Feb 25 2020 Fair and warm weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
It will be dry today with perhaps some sun peeking through the low pesky clouds. Unfortunately the low clouds will hang around for the day. Transition to IFR/LIFR ceilings CSV 26/07Z-26/16Z west to east as weak surface cold frontal system moves through/pushes well east and upper level troughing influences approach TN River Valley Region.
TFJ Snow is exiting the forecast area this morning as high pressure moves into eastern Montana. The high moves to the east tonight. A warm front moves across the region on Wednesday which could bring a chance of light rain or light snow.
Models are in fairly good agreement, tracking the upper low across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys tonight and tomorrow.
Low clouds will limit solar heating today, but here at FGF, current temps are only a few deg cooler than forecast highs. Early morning surface and satellite observations show a cold frontal zone pushing southward through the region out of southern Manitoba. The leading edge of this front is delineated by a stronger push of cooler air, increasing surface winds with gusts into the 15-20 knot range, and developing scattered low/mid level stratus.
The broad upper trough over the central and eastern part of the country will slide farther east with the upper level ridge building east out of the Rockies later this week.
/issued 338 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ The cold front from yesterday evening has cleared the entire region which has allowed some colder air to filter into the area. An upper level system will dive south across the forecast area this afternoon which will help to bring another cold front through the area.
High pressure moves into the area tonight and winds will become light and variable, allowing temperatures to range from five above to five below zero.
Current NW winds will increase in strength towards the end of the period in wake of a cold front, that will push through area during the late evening/overnight period. Dry conditions expected today with high temps in the low to mid 60s. Then, around sunset, a cold front will enter in our northwest zones and sweep quickly southeast across the region.
An upper level trough will dig across the southern Plains into the southeast CONUS by tomorrow. This trough will push the cold front, currently just west of our area, southeastward through the area tomorrow. Deep layer southwesterly flow will be in place across the area tomorrow morning, keeping a steady flow of Gulf moisture advecting in ahead of the surface cold front. Temperatures will be above average with lows tonight int the low 60s and highs tomorrow in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
524 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 An upper level low pressure system was located over south central Kansas. Temperatures over extreme southeast Kansas into western MO were in the low 40s, with mid to upper 30s across the remainder of the CWA. 2) Cooler temperatures through the end of the week.
The back edge of these clouds continues to slowly migrate east as a vortmax digs into the longwave trough acrs the cntl CONUS. Sunny skies prevail acrs the remainder of the area, and this has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower 70s. Meanwhile, the more prolonged cloud cover has held temperatures acrs southern LA in the lower 60s. The latest sfc analysis depicts another cold front upstream acrs TX, from Texarkana to Temple. Temperatures will begin to fall behind the front, with lows in the lower 40s acrs the Lakes Region to the upper 40s acrs Acadiana. Despite skies bcmg mostly sunny on Wednesday, cold air advection will limit daytime heating, with highs only climbing into the lower to middle 50s.
Expect gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures on Wednesday.
221 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2020 Broad trough covers the CONUS, with the upper low over western KS. As the trough shifts east, an upper ridge will build over the western CONUS, bringing drier and slightly warmer conditions for Wednesday. Kept highs for Wednesday towards the lower end of guidance, taking into account fresh snowfall and increasing clouds.
An upper low shows up well on WV imagery this afternoon over central KS. From around midnight on, the warm layer near the ground will cool enough to allow a mix of rain and snow and/or a complete changeover to snow from north to south, mainly in the wrap-around band in the deformation zone behind the upper low. The higher terrain areas of SE OK and NW AR will change over quicker, and will likely have higher accums than elsewhere, with accums between a half inch and an inch possible. With surface temps expected to be near or above freezing thru the event and overall low snow intensity, roadway impacts are not expected and thus will not issue headlines at this time.
Sharp upper trough currently incoming, and is set to pass on Wed. A cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours, although there are very few echoes on radar now and the HRRR shows scant echoes during the evening and overnight period. A strong upper trough will enter the mid state by tomorrow afternoon, with light showers developing across the region throughout the day.
650 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 A warm front will continue to lift northward through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will be in the area Wednesday.
Expect dry conditions for most in the short term, with the possible exception tonight along the Buffalo Ridge and into northwestern IA, where flurries possible. High-res models have been inconsistent today in potential; however, there is enough shallow moisture that flurries in the higher elevations can't be ruled out. On Wednesday, temperatures will remain cooler than average. Recent trends have kept the temperatures slightly warmer, with CAA pushing out of the area in the morning and WAA beginning to move in.
A longwave trough axis extending through the Central Plains will slide east through the Mississippi River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states by tomorrow night. A piece of energy diving through the Great Basin and into the base of the trough was noted on latest water vapor imagery.
long-wave trough is exiting the area this afternoon producing a relative lull in precipitation.
335 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2020 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week.
A few flurries remain possible south of I-70 through midnight as the trough axis moves through, but little to no accumulation is expected. Overnight into tomorrow, the upper low currently overhead will continue to move eastward, with northerly winds in its wake. Despite the CAA behind the low, the winds and clouds tonight will keep temperatures in the mid 20s.
After our gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures today, temperatures warm up through remainder of the week under continued dry conditions. Cooler daytime temperatures and gusty north-to- northeast winds developed today, especially along and just south of higher terrain features.
Then the upper level ridge builds back in the area, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures.
before showers and a few t-storms develop ahead of cold front.
A stout upper ridge centered just offshore of the California coast has bolstered temperatures into the 70s with nearly cloud- free skies.
/issued 205 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ A strong mid-level jet extended from swrn NM-far W TX with an assocd shrtwv trof across srn NM. The attendant cold front will follow in wake of shrtwv trof arriving in the far nw CWFA later this afternoon, it will then sail on thru the Trans Pecos before 12Z/Wed, courtesy a 4-7mb/3hr isallobaric high. A glancing blow from a front is possible across parts of the n-e PB Fri, with warmer conditions elsewhere. Even warmer Sat 70-75, Sun 75-80 (windy), except warmer along Rio Grande and cooler most areas Mon. Windy conditions are possible Sat-Mon (especially Sun) and at least elevated fire wx concerns are in the offing with potential for a return of wetter and cooler wx into Tue.
201 PM PST Tue Feb 25 2020 Mostly clear and warm weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
/issued 237 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ A strong, positively-tilted trough is located over the central CONUS with a closed low spinning over KS/OK. The associated direct thermal circulation will enhance the large scale forcing for ascent tied to the differential vorticity advection downstream of the approaching trough. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing and will preclude any accumulation potential.
/issued 240 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Secondary cold front will make its way across West Central Texas tonight.