Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WARMER AIR IS COMING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA ARE STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS NOT YET TURNED TO THE SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARD THE REGION. WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THEM BACK UNDER AVERAGES TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO SHIFT EAST. COOLER AIR WILL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE TEMPERATURE REGIME AROUND THIS LOW WAS ATYPICAL. COOLER IN THE 40S AHEAD OF IT. WARMER IN THE 50S AND 60S BEHIND IT. SCT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW- LEVEL/SFC NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING. WHICH COULD RENEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS CARRY IN MUCH COOLER AIR. COLD FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS RETURNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST FROM SRN AZ. WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A WESTERN RIDGE AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE RIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT MAY INITIATE LIGHT SHOWERS AND A SURFACE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE. THE STATIONARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS EAST THIS EVENING AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS IN INFLUENCE LOCALLY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS NEAR 030 POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF WET UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AND ON THE LOWER CIGS.
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE INTERACTING WITH COASTAL TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAINLY OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES NE TONIGHT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COASTAL CLOUDS BUT TOO DRY AND CAPPED AT THE MID LEVELS FOR ANY PCP. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AND WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO SE AND DECREASE SOME BY LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES NE AND A COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS MOVES INLAND.
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA PULLING AWAY INTO NEW MEXICO. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY MIDNIGHT. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THERE IS REMAINING SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CIRCULATION OF THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH.
As a slow moving cold front moves toward our area overnight, a broad swath of pre-frontal showers and a few thunderstorms will make its way into our far northwest counties. Precipitation chances will end Monday night from northwest to southeast as the cold front passes through, and a cool, dry air mass settles in. Tuesday and Tuesday night should be precipitation free under a ridge axis of high surface pressure. After cloud cover remnant from the departing low pressure system moves out to our east, skies should remain sunny/clear.
THEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES/FREEZE HEADLINES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD H5 TROUGH CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AT H85 WE WERE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE WITH THE +15 DEG C WARM AIR EXTENDING FROM KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE H85 FRONT. WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE 40S. FAVORED WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL REMAIN PLENTY BREEZY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PACNW AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.
749 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AND DRY AIR ACROSS NW PA AT 23Z RAISES THE RED FLAG FOR A POSSIBLE INITIAL PERIOD OF ICING AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
816 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING THEN LIFT NORTH INTO PA AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AS WE REMAIN ON THE COOL/DRY SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N/NE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT TO OUR S/SE. N/NE FLOW WILL KEEP US COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE REST OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
This is in advance of the Cold front that is currently across northwest Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Additional storms are expected to move into the region from western Oklahoma later this evening and from the northwest along the cold front.
621 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS WARMER TODAY AND INTO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AM AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE LOWER VALLEY AERODROMES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR ALL EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING-IN UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS BY WED. NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST AS MODEL CONSENUSUS SHOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/-TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF HWY 77 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY WOBBLING NEAR THE CENTRAL SD/NE BORDER AND WILL GRADUALLY TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. THERE IS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF RAINFALL OCCURRING ALONG THE MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER WITH A BROADER AREA OF RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW CENTER STALLS NEAR THE SIOUX CITY AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
The remainder of today into tonight will see an upper wave wobble slowly east, then south across eastern sections of Nebraska into northeast Kansas as an upper ridge begins to amplify from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Great Plains. This will allow the weak cold front over the Nebraska Panhandle to slide southeast into western and central sections of Kansas by early evening.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLOWLY SLIDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
254 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU 08Z DUE TO DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD TONIGHT. SHWRS WILL ROTATE ARND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NE ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN CANADA, THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY, BUT THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT THE MIX DOWN OF THESE TEMPS. THUS TODAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT COULD BE WITH FULL MIX DOWN.
WEAK TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN CAMPED OUT TO OUR NW.
SUMMER LIKE RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BUT A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS AHEAD AS MIXING INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO WESTERN MONTANA WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WHICH BRINGS A DECREASE IN STABILITY AND PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY RECORD WARMTH FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON.
339 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
310 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST EXITING NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON ITS RETROGRADE PATH. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAKNESS/LOW/TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION-WISE THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY TOWARD OFK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF AN ONL THROUGH BBW LINE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GRI BY LATE THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOUTH AS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE BL WILL PROVIDE FOR OVC SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CONUS. WITH A FEW UPPER LOWS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NET EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AS THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES MAKING UP THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH.
1115 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND OVER THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES.
1020 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
228 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 The upper low continues its northwestward drift into the southern U.
1230 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. 05Z RAP SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY.
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL WITH UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. 925 AND 850MB TEMPS MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER TODAY BUT CONTINUED DRYING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NICE DIURNAL RISE WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEARING 80 FOR HIGHS. GRADUAL DECAY OF MID LVL BASED FORCING WITHIN NERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYS ALG W/NRN BOUND OF LL THETA-E RIDGE XPCD REMAINING SOUTH OF LOCAL CWA SUGGESTS A CONTD HOLD TWD A DRY FCST.
116 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DIVES SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES.
430 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY FLATTENED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC WILL BE SPLITTING. THIS KEEPS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED INTO OUR CWA AND THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
With a slow moving upper level trough persisting across the area tonight, cloudy skies with scattered mainly light showers are expected to continue.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS UT/AZ. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF TX. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE RED TIDE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND IMPACT BEACHES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AS WELL AS BOCA CHICA BEACH.
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS INCLEMENT CONDITIONS SHIFTS SWD. /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ENHANCED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW IN AREA OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. LIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
152 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
239 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DIVES SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES.
304 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Upper low along the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico state line is expected move slowly south today and tonight. West Central Texas, however, will be under the influence of an upper level ridge, keeping the region for the most part, dry. With more mid/upper level clouds, highs today should be in the lower 90s. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the lower and mid 60s, due to light winds and dry air.
555 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 The upper low continues its northwestward drift into the southern U.
348 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
143 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OFF THE GA COAST WILL BE DRIFTING NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT TO THE NORTHERN HALF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW NW MOVEMENT.
With some cooler weather on the way this weekend this might be the last 80 degree day of the year for much of western Montana. As a trough of cold air starts to establish off the Pacific Northwest coast, cooler air will move into the Northern Rockies for the weekend, with some more clouds.
321 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THIS SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
157 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
THIS MORNING'S UPDATE REVOLVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST AND ITS EFFECTS HERE IN MIDDLE TN. WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ON THE PLATEAU.
340 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME VERY LIMITED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AMPLE SUNSHINE DOMINATED EAST KENTUCKY TODAY HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH TIME.
249 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS HIGH CI WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WENT WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DRIVE COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS A VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS CANADA AND BRINGS WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE IS PROG TO BUILD IN QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT.
352 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MIGRATING SOUTH DUE TO THE FLOW OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND WILL SLIP SW IA.
108 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 THE 18Z IR/VISIBLE AND 500 MILLIBAR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
343 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME VERY LIMITED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AMPLE SUNSHINE DOMINATED EAST KENTUCKY TODAY HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH TIME.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DRAWS IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HEADING UPWARD. /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ VERY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND.
A small short wave trough over eastern New Mexico is forecast to flatten and become more or less absorbed by a larger area of low pressure over the southeast.
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 A few more clouds over Central Illinois this morning as the upper level disturbance to the west edges closer, but high pressure remains the dominant feature. With the high pressure, ILX will remain warm, with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny skies. with fairly dry dewpoints again in the low 50s.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ROTATED NORTHWARD BUT TO VARYING DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A RESPITE FROM THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADS NORTH.
WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND THEN ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE MIDLEVELS AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR MOVE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CAUSING LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY FRI SAT AND SUN.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LOW ONSHORE THE UPPER SE GA COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL NUDGE N/NW ONTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TNGT/EARLY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN.