Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Have been trying, and will continue to try, to keep up with the high POP areas and expected development. 00" ahead of the cold front again today. The low confidence comes from the uncertainty in where the best upscale growth of storms will occur. By Wednesday afternoon, we should have cooler and drier weather across the entire area. Cooler and drier weather persists through the second half of the week and into the weekend as the troughing over the Great Lakes remains stationary and keeps us under northerly flow.
unseasonably far south and strong mid/upper level trough axis has shifted south and east of the region. Min temps should generally be in the lower 70s tonight with slightly cooler conditions expected Wed Night across the Coastal Plains as weak offshore flow briefly develops overnight.
621 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Quiet weather into Wed as high pressure remains in control. All areas should end up cooler than last night, so favored cold spots in the interior may drop into low to mid 30s. High pressure settles to the central Great Lakes on Wed while low pressure trough slides over northern Ontario. Warmer aloft with h85 temps into the lower teens and once again sunny skies, so max temps away from lake modification will be into the mid or upper 70s.
334 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the back side of the upper trough gracing eastern counties of SETX to the coast and into the nearshore waters. Skies should clear out this evening with dry and cooler weather to follow.
Tonight and Wednesday The only forecast challenge remains on temperatures as high pressure to dominate northeast WI weather for at least another 24 hours. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure centered over northern Lake Superior with a ridge axis extended northeast into Ontario and southwest into the Midwest. This area/ridge of high pressure is not expected to move much tonight. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather dry for the middle part of the work week. However the pattern begins to change during the late part of the week as a weak as a trough emerges from the northern plains and tracks through the western Great Lakes region.
High pressure aloft across the interior west will maintain very warm and generally dry conditions through the end of the week.
/issued 1149 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Latest runs of the HRRR show the cluster of convection over nern LA shifting swwd today around the nwrn periphery of the upper low.
Showers should be diurnally driven, so expect a dry Wednesday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. Closed low will still be sitting over western Pennsylvania, with enough available moisture to warrant increased sky cover and low rain shower chances across our east through the day.
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure continues to build into East KY from the Great Lakes and western Ontario. To the north, observations have indicated the cooler drier airmass moving in behind the front with a northerly wind. High pressure will edge into the area today from the northwest keeping a dry forecast in place. Clear skies in place tonight with high pressure overhead and light surface winds will lead to fog development tonight. Otherwise, high pressure, morning fog, and pleasant conditions will be the main story for the next 36 hours.
243 PM MST Tue Jun 6 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system keeps temperatures above normal.
Wednesday will be back to a warming trend after a cooler day today.
240 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through central South Dakota with high pressure beginning to build over Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures today will be cooler, but near average, behind the cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the eastern portions of the forecast area as the cold front continues to progress eastward and the upper level wave moves into the eastern Dakotas. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
Upper level low along the Gulf coast will pivot southeastward tonight and tomorrow, eventually taking the best rain chances with it. Another, larger, upper level low along the east coast will help drive a surface cold front southward through the state, allowing some lower dewpoint air to work its way in from the north. Cooler and drier weather persists through the second half of the week and into the weekend as the troughing over the Great Lakes remains stationary and keeps us under northerly flow.
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The synoptic pattern early this morning features a strong upper- level trough diving into the eastern Great Lakes region, which will keep northerly flow over the Midwest through the period. The surface cold front has pushed into far southern MO, allowing for much drier air to work into the region in its wake. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the area, about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The zone of high pressure over the western Great Lakes that has been providing the recent stretch of nice, but dry weather will begin to slide eastward.
248 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the northern and central mountains of New Mexico associated with very steep mid level lapse rates with an upper level disturbance within an upper level ridge.
601 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region will remain moist a cold front pushes through the southern Midlands and CSRA.
Clouds are showing a little more vertical development across the Highway 77 corridor and with continued daytime heating, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop through the afternoon and early evening hours. A dry forecast is in store on Wednesday as continued northerly flow in the low-levels helps to reduce the amount of low-level moisture across the region.
312 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis has a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through eastern South Dakota with high pressure building over Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas. Upper ridge persists over the area with Canadian upper low shifting into eastern ND. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
High pressure pushing into northern Montana with clear skies and dry conditions. Exiting upper trof has depressed temperatures and resulted in some gusty winds today, but expect winds to diminish with sunset. Upper ridge begins building into the state as the trof exits. This should bring some warmer temperatures for Wednesday.
258 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Scattered to numerous shwrs/tstms continue to pivot around the back side of the upper low centered over ern LA/wrn MS. Latest HRRR, as well as the mainstream model output show convection dying out shortly after sunset, as the upper low continues to drift ewd and we lose daytime heating. Region to see some drier weather for the next several days, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc dominates the pattern. Have held close to blended guidance for temps during this timeframe, but we could be warmer if the soils dry out quickly.
An upper low is currently over the area and widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the region. With the slow moving nature of this low showers and storms will train over the same areas for a short period of time. Will start to see slightly cooler temperatures in the northwest tonight, which will be more noticeable Wednesday night across the area.
This minor threat for thunderstorms will continue overnight into Wednesday as a trough of low pressure moves through ND and should bring some nice warming along the same boundary which becomes oriented more towards northeast SD. Will bring a slight increased threat for thunderstorms into east central SD late Wednesday afternoon as this trough allows heights aloft to drop during peak heating.
255 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level low pressure will develop over the upper Ohio Valley region over the next few days, with only slight chances of showers at times through the rest of the week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Quite weather is expected through the short term period as the mid level low trough progresses east across the Gulf. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will continue over the Western Conus. Otherwise, temps are still running warmer than normal and have kept the trend going of keeping values near or higher than guidance. High pressure dominating the region will keep subsidence and generally rain-free weather in place.
328 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Tonight through Wednesday: The upper-level low pressure system which has brought several days of rainfall to our region is now moving southeast of our forecast area.
With clouds lingering around the area, expect the temperatures to remain on the cooler side.
May see a slight uptic in activity through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening as several weak eddies drop southward along backside of longwave trough. Cooler H5/H7 temperatures may allow for another round of diurnal convection, but with weak dynamic forcing and weak convergence along boundary, feel only low PoPs warranted.
244 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low through much of the week. High pressure and warming conditions for this weekend. Upper level low/trough continues to sag south this afternoon. Overnight will be quite cool with weak northerly flow and temperatures dropping into the low 50s and cooler in the mountains. Upper level low pushes overhead by tomorrow afternoon.
1148 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cooler conditions today behind a front that is presently sinking south across the plains with a few showers noted behind it.
This will be followed by an active, showery and much cooler spring-like pattern starting as early as Wednesday evening that will linger on through the end of the week and through the weekend.
Light winds and clear skies are expected tonight as high pressure sags south from northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be similar to today, maybe a tad warmer and more humid.
223 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A weak mid level trough will be moving through along and west of I-135 this afternoon.
A low pressure system over the Louisiana coast, is forecast to slowly slide to the east, and even southeast, towards Central florida.
150 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A cold front will sag south through the area through Wednesday night. A series of weak low pressure systems will move across the area from southwest, which will bring a high chance for showers and thunderstorms through mid week.
Cold front will continue crossing through the area today. For tomorrow, it will be cooler and dry, with highs mainly in the 70s.
An upper level trough will approach tonight and Wednesday for slightly cooler temperatures and an increase of clouds.
A few high clouds were streaming ahead of the Dakotas trough into the upper ridge over the state. Expect this to continue into Wednesday as the trough is forecast to move into the region during the afternoon. Various models suggesting surface dewpoints ranging into the lower 60s along the surface boundary.
1139 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A hot dry airmass remains in place across the forecast area this morning as a strong ridge of high pressure is in position over the Intermountain West and the Rocky Mountains. Mid and upper level moisture continues to sneak in beneath the ridge. This moisture will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the high terrain. Not much movement is forecast with the ridge of high pressure through at least Wednesday.
High pressure over the far western Great Lakes will continue to slowly build southward with time, with drier air advecting into the region from the north. Subsidence associated with the high will keep skies mainly clear through the period.
A reinforcing cold front will result in a winds remaining more northeasterly across central Oklahoma.
Ahead of the boundary temps have risen into the low 80s with low 50s for dewpoints. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from northern SASK into western MT. Upper trough forecast to move across the area Wed and Wed night. 700 theta-e ridge will track across the area today through Wed with some wrap around. Northwest flow aloft will be across the area for Thu and Thu night as a flattened upper level ridge moves across the area.
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region will remain moist and unstable as a cold front slowly moves through the area resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms.
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Dry/pleasant conditions will continue today and Wednesday as high pressure continues to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the middle 40s across the sand country of central Wisconsin to the lower 50s elsewhere.
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Scattered convection continues to develop in southwestern and south central Nebraska and adjacent areas of Kansas ahead of a weak cold front and in an area of modest and shallow mid-level isentropic ascent. In the eastern counties, dry air advection is the rule behind an upper low in the Great Lakes and northeast low level wind off modified high pressure. Advection of lower theta air will continue to stabilize conditions and allow for cooler temps tonight and Wednesday. Have sided on the slightly warmer side of temps based on persistence.
126 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure will move slowly south across the Great Lakes the next couple of days providing generally dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures.
341 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper trough axis has finally moved east of the area, now affecting the lower MS valley. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forming this afternoon across south central KS on the periphery of the ridge axis. Northeast winds will continue to bring cooler and drier air into the region tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 50s across NW Arkansas to lower 60s across eastern Oklahoma.
However, it will feel a bit cooler since wind speeds will increase once vigorous boundary layer mixing commences. A warming trend will begin tonight and increase on Thursday as upper level high pressure builds over the state and low level warm air advection becomes established. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be considerably warmer than today and much more typical of late May with mainly upper 80s and lower 90s.
1048 PM PDT Tue May 23 2017 A strong cold front will plow through the region this evening bringing gusty winds especially to Central Washington. Blustery conditions will persist into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures a solid twenty degrees cooler than today. Sunny and warmer weather will return for the Memorial Day Weekend with high temperatures warming back into the 80s. Cold front is almost to the crest of the Cascades. Some isolated strong winds are already occurring on the higher benches/elevations around Chelan and Entiat. /Nisbet 06Z TAFs: A dry cold front is moving across central WA and through eastern WA overnight.
The upper level low is moving into southern IA early this morning and will migrate across northeastern MO into central IL and into the lower Ohio river valley by the afternoon. As the low is moving into northeastern MO this morning, the light rain that is showing up in central IA may may make it into northern and northeastern MO. Temperatures will be similar and possibly a few degrees cooler than yesterday as well. If there are areas that see more of the Sun, temperatures will be a bit warmer than forecast.
This is all part of an expansive longwave trough covering the eastern half of the U. A second is progged to develop over the next couple of hours in the Lower Mississippi Valley and drag northward this morning. It's the track of this low we are going have to watch very closely. To summarize, we're looking at a isolated wind threat this afternoon east of I-65 with the potential for some hail as the upper low crosses overhead late this afternoon and evening.
1237 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Light, to occasionally moderate, showers will continue to shift east across the area, ahead of a cold front, through the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. After the shower activity associate with the front shifts our of the area by mid-morning, scattered light showers will redevelop over sites north of the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon as the upper level low itself bushes the northern half of the area later today. Both the scattered light showers associated with the closed low and the winds will dissipate/subside heading into the early evening hours. /19/ Showers are making their way into the western part of our CWA associated with a weak low pressure system.
1113 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017 Latest upper analysis shows the closed low moving northeast with a ridge approaching from the west. At the surface winds continue to increase as the low level jet over the forecast area begins to mix down to the ground. In fact the low level temperature field was cooler last night over Eastern Colorado and lows only fell into the mid 30s. A warm front will move through the forecast area from the west. A closed low will, at the same time, stall in southern Saskatchewan all the while extending a trough southward into the Plains.
350 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers today through Thursday. Upper low will be overhead on Thursday with scattered showers expected.
A strong cold front is moving through western Montana and central Idaho early this morning, causing breezy winds to occur.
418 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 An upper low centered over south central IA will move sse through MO today.
A much cooler air mass over Western Washington today will result in cooler conditions and a slight chance of showers today. An upper ridge will bring warmer and drier weather over the weekend. current obs are 10 degrees cooler. with a cooler air mass in place on the back side of an upper level trough. temperatures today will actually end up falling pretty close to normal or just a little shy of normal even though temps this afternoon will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than observed highs for yesterday. As the upper level trough pulls away and upper level ridging starts to build over the Pacific.
136 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure will linger through the coming day, keeping the weather dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
400 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017 A low pressure system will bring strong winds across much of north central Montana today. with a cold front cooling temperatures to below normal readings for later today through Thursday.
Upper low beginning to move from British Columbia into southern Alberta early this morning. As the low pushes toward Saskatchewan today, a cold front will march across the state. Timing of front keeps the strongest winds over the northwest zones so area of the High Wind Warning still on track. Winds decouple some tonight but expected to increase again on Thursday as the low moves toward Manitoba. An upper low situated over southern Saskatchewan Thursday night will shift southeast toward the Upper Midwest over the weekend. As the closed low tracks by the area expect isolated to widely scattered chances for showers for portions of the CWA over the weekend. Low pressure will push further downstream of the region in the upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes established over Montana.
North winds will continue overnight and this morning due to the passage of a weak cold front. Main aviation concerns tonight will be the potential for strong storms developing along a southward-moving cold front. Slight risk of severe weather across the Rio Grande valley and Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night): The combination of a 500mb trough across the central United States and a weak cold front moving through the CWA tonight will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Wed afternoon compared to the previous couple of days but will still be very warm across the CWA.
412 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Cold front slowly making its way through the area this morning. Strong short wave moving out of the base of the upper trough as well. But strong dry air intrusion from 850mb up is coming in ahead of the actual cold front.
Temperatures will peak well above normal today before a trough moving down from western Canada produces a modest cooling trend and ushers in gusty southwest winds.
323 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 (Today and Tonight) Quieter, dry, and warmer weather over the next 24 hours. Dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the area through the next 24 hours, but will start to transition into upper level ridging by Thursday morning. Not only will we be dry, very few clouds Temperatures today will warm back into the 80s, and lows tonight will be much warmer than upper 50s to lower 60s.
356 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper low continues to sink swd early this morning. As for temps, have trended twd cooler guidance for today expecting most breaks in clouds to fill in. Also trended cooler for tonight as well with the clouds breaking up as the ridge builds into the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
The upper level ridge over the central Plains on Wednesday will move east of the region Wednesday night with westerly flow aloft developing through the remainder of the week.
353 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 An upper low over southern Iowa early this morning will move south into northeast Arkansas by this evening.
537 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Periods of wet weather with cooler-than-average temperatures will dampen the area for the second half of the week.
There is an unusually large amount of clear sky and dry air associated with this low. Intervals of sunshine are likely there, which may initiate a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms due to the cold core with the upper low (minus 20 at 500 mb). The upper low will move east tonight, reaching central Kentucky by morning.
This wave will drag a cold front across the Northern PLains this evening. This will bring gusty winds around 30 mph and warmer temperatures to the region. Across western North Dakota where compressional warming will be maximized ahead of the cold front temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s seem likely. By Thursday the showers will be departing to the east and cooler temperatures into the 60s to around 70 seam reasonable.
346 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure over the region will shift east today.
339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to build in from the west. This will result in warmer and drier conditions through the end of the week.
Wet weather will occur today through midday Thursday as low pressure deepens over the Ohio valley and drifts north across Indiana.
Low pressure passing to the north will bring a period of gusty winds on Wednesday with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.
Strong high pressure aloft will maintain well above average temperatures Wednesday.
As a deep upper low slowly migrates toward the western Great Lakes today, a couple of weak short waves troughs embedded in southwesterly flow aloft are set to transit the area. More coherent shower activity will start to encroach on the area late in the day as the upper low over the western Great Lakes starts to migrate eastward. Fries The upper low will gradually first dig into the mid-Mississippi Valley before slowly ejecting toward our area.