Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the four corners region through the end of the week with an occasional wobble to the east.
quiet conditions exist across much of the CWA with temperatures running on the warmer side across the plains. A lee side cyclone will develop during the afternoon promoting strong mixing across the plains. An upper level disturbance and moisture embedded within the upper level high will allow for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms mainly over and near the higher terrain. Low temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with mid to upper-60s across the plains and low to mid-50s in high valley areas.
Isolated convection has developed on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Ridge is currently centered over the 4 corners and continues to lead to very hot conditions over the desert sw. The ridge will quickly be on the move east tonight as the next PAC nw trough moves towards the coast. By Wednesday afternoon and evening the ridge will dominate the southern Plains with the ridge axis extending east-southeast over the entire southeastern CONUS.
322 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Ridging, both at the sfc and aloft, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the state. The large, sprawling upper ridge still centered near the Four Corners region, has extended a bit eastward allowing flow aloft to become more northwesterly. Throughout the week, several disturbances will ride eastward along the northern fringes of the upper ridge, but the main storm track will remain north of our forecast area.
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 The warm front has taken its time getting back north today.
Confident that much of the southern and eastern zones will achieve triple digits Wednesday, with highs of 100-104 in the lower elevations where downslope compression will be enhanced. Weak cold frontal boundary will arrive in the northern CWA around midday. Moisture and instability increase markedly Wednesday, with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg forecasted by both NAM/GFS, with GFS forecasting a corridor of strong instability and moisture convergence along the advancing cold front across the northern zones 4-7 pm Wed.
Weak ridging tonight will give way to a cold front approaching the coast early Wednesday morning.
Subtropical ridge builds over Texas today with a slight decrease in moisture and a slight increase in capping and subsidence. The ridge elongates across the southern states tonight into Wednesday with continued decreasing moisture levels and increasing capping and subsidence. However, low level jet may generate some showers along the highway 77 corridor on Wednesday due to deep enough moisture underneath the cap.
108 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure remains in control across the Concho Valley, Big Country, Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country. /issued 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Benign weather expected today across West Central Texas as high pressure aloft dominates. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Very warm and dry conditions will persist inland through much of the work week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Mainly clear skies prevail over the region this morning as mid/upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest builds westward. As a result, this afternoon will be as warm if not a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday. While temperatures inland warm into the upper 80s and 90s, coastal areas will once again remain significantly cooler due to the persistent onshore flow. Similar to the past few days, very warm readings can be expected for inland locations as a strong ridge of high pressure (598 DM at 500 MB) centered over the Four Corners Region keeps the storm track well to our north.
With the high PW values, storms could produce localized flooding.
Models indicate enough moisture will pool along the trough just in time for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening.
402 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 At 3 PM, a strong warm front was located from central Nebraska southeast into northwest and east-central Missouri. There was a narrow ribbon of surface dew points near 70 along the warm front. This was resulting in surface-based CAPES south of the warm front in the 3 to 4 K/kg range. As a short wave trough moves out of the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday morning, the surface warm front will move north toward the Interstate 80 corridor. As far as a potential round of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon, there are a lot of questions on where the surface warm front will be located. At this time, it looks like the warm front may struggle to get any further north of Interstate 80.
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 At 3 PM, a strong warm front was located from central Nebraska southeast into northwest and east-central Missouri. There was a narrow ribbon of surface dew points near 70 along the warm front. This was resulting in surface-based CAPES south of the warm front in the 3 to 4 K/kg range. As a short wave trough moves out of the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday morning, the surface warm front will move north toward the Interstate 80 corridor. As far as a potential round of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon, there are a lot of questions on where the surface warm front will be located. At this time, it looks like the warm front may struggle to get any further north of Interstate 80.
Heading into tonight, as the convection from earlier today begins to dissipate as it slides southeast, a new low pressure system and associated cluster of storms develops and begins to track southeast. As this occurs, a developing warm front lifts northeast as southwesterly warm and moist air increases. The NAM and GFS hint at early convection will be concentrated over the south and southwest Wednesday morning before transitioning to the northeast through the day as the warm front develops. At the start of the period, the southern ridge will hold steady just south of Kentucky as the northern stream begins to amplify.
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will exit south of the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening.
Upper level ridging builds back over the area on Wednesday and will provide for dry.
159 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the north country today with mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River.
high pressure will settle across the region. Rain chances will be limited due to the high pressure system and dry weather will prevail.
/issued 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Southwest U. Over the next couple of days, heights decrease in the ridge.
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Convection continues to develop across parts of eastern Nebraska, southwest IA and northwest MO in a zone of 850 mb moisture convergence on the nose of a southwesterly low level jet, and also along the western extent of a cold front that has become stationary and along an outflow boundary from earlier convection. Should have slightly cooler high temperatures behind the front across northeast MO and west central IL, but also further south as well due to cloud cover and precipitation.
The subsidence is quite apparent in water vapor imagery and model soundings above 600mb as is the low level moisture surge of 2" PW.
/Issued 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ High pressure aloft will begin to erode on the eastern side.
/issued 1023 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ A pleasant morning this morning with some drier air in place under high pressure. High pressure will be in place through the end of the week keeping generally easterly flow in place.
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 An upper ridge will maintain hot and humid weather across our area at least through the upcoming weekend.
1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the CONUS with ridge axis across the Northern Great Plains. At the surface, low/lee trof is located across central Montana with high pressure across the eastern Dakotas. Highs will rise back into the 90s across much of the plains as southerly winds bring warmer and moister air into the area. Strong cold front passage later tonight will bring brisk northwesterly winds with gusts to 40 mph for a period, especially across the plains in the lee of the Black Hills. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only expected to be in the 80s.
High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will remain over the region this period. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again tonight, then warm into the 90s Wednesday. Upper level ridging will remain over the region through the short term, suppressing convection.
204 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will drop south of the Ohio River today. The front is forecast to lift back north on Wednesday as a warm front ahead of low pressure developing to the west. Severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night when the low will be tracking across northern Illinois and Indiana to Lake Erie.
A cooler/drier airmass has settled into central Illinois behind the boundary, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Low pressure currently over eastern Montana will track eastward tonight, gradually pulling the front back northward. A 40-50kt 850mb jet streak will develop in advance of the low, focusing maximum thermal/moisture advection across South Dakota into northern/central Iowa. The higher pops for Wed through Wed evening will be in the northeast, mainly along and north of I-74. High pressure will build in and dominate the weather through this period. This ridging will slowly get pushed east as another mid level trough moves into the plains from the northwest US.
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest this week resulting in hot and dry conditions with afternoon and evening breezes.
232 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front along the Maryland border will continue to move southward this evening.
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 The w/v satellite was showing the strong upper level low pressure area spinning along the Montana/Canadian border this afternoon moving east. The surface pattern had low pressure troughing all along the east slopes of the rockies. Warmer and more moist air was being drawn north this afternoon on good low level winds resulting in increasing instability. The one to the south will track across far southern sd/northern nebraska while the other low pressure area will track into North Dakota and then southeast across our far northeast cwa into Wednesday evening. Although, believe our best shot will come later tonight with the push of a cold front the northwest. Otherwise, it should be breezy/windy northwest winds through the day and cooler.
Center of the upper ridge is expected to drift ewd over n TX over the next 12-24 hours, which will aid our temps upward a bit for the second half of the work week. Model guidance showing some POPs for these days, but doubting this possibility due to the proximity of the upper ridge to our region. Upper ridge is expected to weaken and shift further ewd for the weekend, which will allow for diurnal convection to return as a possibility, especially late in the fcst pd as a weak back-door front drops s into the region.
Today and Wednesday could actually be the hottest of the lot as 700 mb and 850 mb ridging are centered overhead which will keep low level winds light and limit the intrusion of "cooler" air off of the Gulf. Because of this, have forecast the high temps warmer than guidance and what the low level thickness values would otherwise suggest. With ridging in place, subsidence will dominate and limit rain potential.
404 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure continues to persist over the southern half of the contigious US. As the axis of the high pressure shifts eastward on Wednesday, precipitable water will increase slightly to near 0.
Dewpoints will stay up in the low 70s over far southeast KS, with lower dewpoints further west. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest, reaching portions of central/north-central KS by Wednesday afternoon/evening.
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weak high pressure will build east over the area through Wednesday.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the Pacific northwest. Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south. However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a touch.
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
mid level ridging over the Plains Region providing the area with yet another day of hot conditions. Models keep remnants of the lee-side trough will remain over the region. the transition from a more amplified upper ridge to more zonal conditions takes shape over the region. H5 ridge does flatten thru the period giving downslope conditions off the Rockies and as a result another day reaching into the 90+F region for daytime highs.
257 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows broad upper level ridging across much of the western CONUS, while an upper level trough was located over the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, high pressure continues to hold across the SE, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The weakening upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days, with no real changes to the local area forecast.
208 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure aloft will gradually weaken tonight and Wednesday. As the onshore flow increases, the marine layer will slowly deepen during the remainder of the workweek, and that will mean cooler weather for locations west of the mountains. The weakening high and an increase in mid to high clouds will also bring cooler weather to the deserts through Wednesday.
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will briefly build in from Canada on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region Wednesday night.
The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from Cleveland to St Louis and on into central MO using winds and pressure to determine location. The Pennyrile region will have the highest risk of severe with that area in slight risk of severe.
Frontal boundary across the forecast area is expected to lift to the northeast this morning as a warm front and by 00Z should extend from low pressure in northwest Nebraska southeast across northwest Missouri. By Wednesday, a broad mid-level ridge will be stretched across the central and southern CONUS.
Will follow the guidance of HRRR model runs and have the highest pops over the foothills and Palmer Divide through the evening. Later tonight a weak and dry cold front will move over the northeast plains, bringing some cooling for Wednesday. The cooler temperatures will also help to keep the airmass on the plains capped through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will continue over the high terrain and Palmer Divide area Wednesday evening with upslope flow, then likely drift east over the east-central plains as a theta-e ridge pushes into the area.
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016 A surface and upper trough of low pressure will move southeast from Canada overnight. This upper trough will bring a chance of rain showers to northern New York after midnight tonight.
A warm front will return northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the area. Potent ridge runner cresting rockies ridge acrs MT attm of which will rapidly eject into the wrn Grtlks wed night. Otrws btr wmfntl push ewd of sfc cyclone shifting out the plains looks delayed til wed evening sw and northeast of there overnight. Aft that rockies ridge expands/shifts east in response to deep nrn stream sw trough that wraps up ewd through srn Canada by lt weekend. A warm front will shift northward on Wednesday resulting in an increased chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through midday, particularly at KSBN, where have added VCSH mention after 15Z.
An upper ridge stretching east over the Lower Mississippi river Valley and Southeast shifts east a bit. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s expected, with highs for Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will press slowly to the Maryland border through the afternoon.
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant weather factor across south central Texas through the short term portion of the forecast. For tomorrow, the subtropical ridge strengthens and this should reduce coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
237 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A thermal trough continues today and will diminish into Wednesday.
Slight veering in the low levels could allow for isolated late night coastal shower moving onshore the far SE Treasure coast (Martin/St Lucie cos. Persistent ridge aloft with its subsiding air mass will limit best moisture to 5000 feet/850mb and less per model time height cross sections. Overnight lows in the middle 70s except the low 70s and upper 60s in the usually cooler spots west of Interstate 4 in North Lake and Inland Volusia counties and west of Interstate 95 Southwest Brevard to Saint Lucie county west to the Kissimmee River.
Strengthening H5 ridging is prog to occur through the short term period which will suppress much in the way of convective development each day.
Low pressure now over northeast Indiana and continuing to move away to the northeast of the region. Little mixing of the lower levels is anticipated as weak ridging aloft develops over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday.
max and subtle sfc-850mb west-to-east oriented trough axis progged to work northward through the region late this afternoon into tonight. The next wave of low pressure is progged to pass through the area Tue night into Wed, and chances for rain, and then a low confidence transition to a rain/snow mix is mentioned for late night into early morning.
A warm front drifting northward across the Ohio Valley will be north of the region by the beginning of the forecast period. An upper trof, largely responsible for the overnight rainfall, will pivot to our northeast by 18Z. 10 to 15 degrees warmer than our normal high temperatures for the date. Saturday an upper low will cross the Midwest while an upper ridge sits off Florida's east coast. Severe convection over the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast may rob us of some of our potential RH, and available instability this far north is rather weak.
If clouds are slower to clear, it may end up being cooler.
/issued 401 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/ A deep mid-latitude cyclone is lifting north across the Upper Midwest early this morning.
Transitory upper level ridging will pass over the area tonight, while a large longwave trough is positioned over the east Pacific and western 2/3 of the CONUS.
1220 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Unseasonably warm temperatures overnight with lows only falling into the lower and middle 40s. Another week and our average highs start climbing back into the lower 40s! CVKING Widespread dense fog blankets the region this morning and much of the short term model guidance along with climatology suggest that visibility will not improve until 16Z, so have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 a.
Water vapor imagery showing mid and upper level moisture beginning to advance into the region along and ahead of incoming associated southern trof. Impressive wind fields noted ahead of trof with 100-120 kt southwest upper jet, southwest 50-60 kt at 500 mb and a 30-40 kt low level southerly jet. Next trof will advance across the southwest conus Saturday with rapid and deep cyclogenesis occurring as feature advances into the Texas panhandle. Continuing deepening and vigorous low will maintain an eastward trek advancing into the lower Mississippi valley Saturday night. An associated cold front will sweep across the area during this time-frame.
Starting to see some showers develop across the coastal areas affecting KALI/KCRP as coastal trough develops this afternoon. Winds try to shift more northwesterly for a period later this afternoon as the coastal trough moves slightly eastward bringing in some drier surface air allowing us to climb to MVFR.
Temperatures rose quickly into the low-mid 60s with good mixing and gusty south winds where it has cleared.
Early morning water vapor imagery showed an upper level low across the region. Low clouds or fog will remain in place for the foreseeable future as an upper level low slowly rotates overhead. Light drizzle is likely across the region given the low level saturation.
Upper low to continue to drift north through ND tonight. The column does cool some overnight so minimum temperatures expected to range a few degrees either side of freezing. With cooler temperatures potential for difficult travel for fzdz will have to be monitored. Temperatures expected to range a few degrees above freezing. Cloudy skies are expected to continue as the low levels remain moist due to above freezing temperatures and snow melt. A weak upper level trof may trigger light precipitation accumulations. With the warmer surface and boundary layer temperatures. Cooler temperatures forecast in the Devils Lake Basin may result in some light freezing precipitation in that area.
The low level flow looks quite weak but from a moist southerly direction so stratus to remain and fog, possibly dense, to persist for at least the morning hours. Lowest vsbys likely to be early ahead of the low level boundary. No sunshine expected though low level thermal ridge pokes into se WI through early afternoon so some temps may still take a run at 50 in the far south or southeast.
Feature to continue to lift northward as upper low over the dakotas lifts north. Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over eastern SD. Upper low will move north then northwest today and tonight. Another upper level trough on the water vapor loop was indicated over the TX panhandle. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and more or less park over area. Upper low will produce light precipitation over the forecast area Sat through late Sun night.
310 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 The region remains under a somewhat neutral and stagnant pattern, with southerly flow keeping temperatures hovering on either side of freezing across much of the area. With this moisture being basically trapped in the low levels, expect to see fog form across much of the area once again tonight and linger into Saturday morning. Due to the shallow nature of the cloud deck, will stick with mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle across the eastern CWA tonight through the day Saturday, with the potential for a switch over to light snow Saturday night as cooler air moves in.