Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some patchy fog and cooler temperatures again possible tonight in areas where skies clear out - mainly across the north shore and parts of inland northwest Wisconsin (around Price county). An area of high pressure to the east and a low developing to the west will result in a another afternoon of breezy southerly winds Saturday, with gusts approaching 20-25 mph. Highs Saturday in the mid 70s, cooler along the north shore.
High pressure ridge extending southwest from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains will gradually shift east over New England with ridge axis SW across the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Another strong upper level ridge will develop across the Eastern half of the nation and the pressure pattern will be very efficient at limiting moisture advection into the forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 66 90 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 85 62 87 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 86 62 88 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0.
Warmer on Saturday with highs in the 80s for the valley and west as the winds efficiently mix once again from near 800mb.
Tonight the question will be how much decoupling do we see given the placement of the high pressure, but fairly confident the deeper valleys will take advantage.
Models have come more in agreement, digging the trough south and tracking this disturbance to northern Nevada Saturday night , then lifting it northeastward.
Building upper ridge axis now anchored across the Mississippi River Valley will arc northeast and into Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. The resulting 588-590 DM upper high will effectively remain centered across the region through the weekend, as the extensive north-south elongated ridge pinches into the tropical system Hermine circulating off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and the elongated 500mb trough across the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across most of south Texas. High pressure to the west will maintain a light northerly flow and VFR conditions today. /issued 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge axis across Northcentral Mexico extending north into New Mexico becomes elongated southwest to Northeast across Texas Saturday. Best rain chances today and this evening will be across the Northern and western zones west as weak perturbations rotate around the high.
121 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will slowly push east to Maine by Saturday evening.
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Dry conditions will prevail through midweek, but with much warmer temperature as a high amplitude ridge builds in the wake of the tropical activity, and in advance of a Western CONUS trough. Rain chances were maintained for the latter half of the week as per progs of the western trough sliding eastward. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under building high pressure. No restrictions expected under high pressure.
Upper air analysis this morning showed northwesterly flow over Texas with a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. At the surface, a ridge extended down from the northeast and winds were light from the northeast through east. The upper level trough to the east will move farther east, but heights over Texas will stay about the same.
The upper level high will begin to move off late in the day, but little change is expected to sensible weather.
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.
Scattered convection has developed over the region in advance of the short wave trough moving south-southeast out of south-central Texas. The short wave trough will move through the area by Saturday morning. But models indicate another vorticity maximum that moves to the upper Texas coast tonight will drift to the southwest into the area as the upper ridge builds over north Texas. The short wave trough moves into northern Mexico Saturday night.
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 For the start of the holiday weekend, high pressure will remain in control over the region through tomorrow, with NE winds throughout the overnight. Tomorrow will be more of the same, with high pressure ridge keeping the winds more northeasterly and mostly sunny with some cumulus across Central Illinois and max temps in the upper 70s/low 80s.
1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2016 Morning IR and visible satellite imagery depicts a large swath of cirrus and cirrostratus cresting the H500 ridge axis along the Missouri River and streaming south towards Iowa.
633 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. Orgnl Disc: Showers in Washington County will taper off in the next couple of hours as an upper level trough shifts east. Light winds and clearing skies will lead to a cool night with lows in the low to mid 40s north and upper 40s to lower 50s for Bangor and the Down East region. Raised the low temp forecast as the air mass is not as dry as previously expected and some stratocu fields may slow cooling. The high builds tomorrow with low humidity and slightly warmer temperatures reaching the low 70s in most locations.
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Latest 19z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northern Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Surface/upper level ridge over the Great Lakes Region will continue to dominate the forecast area. With surface/upper level ridge ridge in control Saturday.
425 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. Showers in Washington County will taper off in the next couple of hours as an upper level trough shifts east. Light winds and clearing skies will lead to a cool night with lows in the low to mid 40s north and upper 40s to lower 50s for Bangor and the Down East region. Raised the low temp forecast as the air mass is not as dry as previously expected and some stratocu fields may slow cooling. The high builds tomorrow with low humidity and slightly warmer temperatures reaching the low 70s in most locations.
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.
Water vapor imagery currently showing a large upper low and trough situated over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front ahead of this system is across north central Montana this afternoon and this front will sweep across our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening. Saturday will be a much cooler day with temperatures in the lower 70s west to lower 80s far east.
Surface analysis this afternoon places Tropical Storm Hermine near Charleston, South Carolina while a 1027 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. This area of high pressure has brought rain free weather and pleasant temperatures to the Mid-South today. High pressure is expected to result in rain free conditions this weekend.
With a cloudy sky by morning, and SE winds remaining elevated, temperatures tonight will be much warmer than last night, with lows in the 60s. Windy and warmer. Lee side surface cyclone in SE Wyoming near 998 mb will yield a surface pressure gradient of about 10 mb across SW KS during the afternoon.
212 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build across our region from Canada this weekend.
We will spend the short term sitting between high pressure over the Great Lakes and Hermine's circulation progressing from Georgia to just off the mid-Atlantic coast. Gusts to around 20 mph can be expected this afternoon, and dew points may mix down into the lower 50s. Highs today will be in the lower and middle 80s, and then a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
Highs maybe a degree or two warmer than today. The upper ridge over us now will shift just a bit to the east and flatten out while troughing over the western CONUS shifts slowly east. This will leave us in weak sw flow aloft with south sfc winds brining warmer temperatures and higher dew points/humidity Mon-Tue.
258 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016 The water vapor pictures are still showing the weak upper level trough moving eastward over the western CWA right now. Southeasterly winds are progged over the plains on Saturday with a likely Denver cyclone.
the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the area even as weak perturbations move southward along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge to the west. A weak inverted 500mb trough is expected to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight into Saturday.
327 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes then remain across the region through the Labor Day weekend. Lows will range from the lower 50s in the normally sheltered low-lying locations to the upper 50s at higher terrain/ridge top locations. Meanwhile, upper ridging will build into the region from the west, while Hermine slowly moves northeast to a position off the mid Atlantic region.
Ridging was found aloft over the region as well, yielding fairly benign conditions for the Northland today and tonight. An elongated area of low pressure and associated cold front will gradually move toward northern Minnesota on Saturday. Expect we'll see a few of the commonly cooler COOP sites report middle or low 30s this morning. Nudged pre-dawn temps a bit cooler to capture current trend. Temps today will rebound into the low 70s over northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota to the upper 70s in north-central Minnesota. With the southerly flow today through this evening, should see slightly warmer low temps overnight. Cool front and area of low pressure will slide a little closer to northwest Minnesota on Saturday. Temperatures will reach the low to upper 30s.
At the surface, high pressure remains over the Great Lakes with an expansive reach to the west across our region. The upper level ridge axis looks to translate slowly eastward through the period, resulting in the upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by Saturday night, which will set the stage for at least opportunities for precipitation from that point on.
The driest weather continues to be across the highway 82 corridor, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and even the upper 50s at Greenville. Further south, dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Models show PW values increasing back to the north through the day tomorrow with the driest air remaining generally along and north of the highway 82 corridor. This, along with increasing temperatures back into the lower to mid 90s, will help generate mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
(ISSUED 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 ) High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. The actual cold front itself that moved through yesterday is now very difficult to find. In the wake of the front, high pressure continues to build into the Great Lakes States keeping northeast surface flow in place through the period. Upper level high ridging will also be locked in through the period with dry and basically splendid weather expected.
Upper level ridging will be the dominant weather feature across our area for much of the remainder of the seven day forecast. With the upper ridge, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages as well.
The storm will interact with an upper level trough and become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone that dances off the mid atlantic coast through at least the middle of the week. A cold front is forecast to push to near the Florida/Georgia border or possibly into northern northeast Florida tonight behind Hermine, and cooler temperature in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 degrees are expected across southeast Georgia. Lows are forecast to be generally in the low to mid 70s across northeast Florida, but could fall into the upper 60s across inland areas near I-10.
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Aviation The entire holiday weekend will be dry and pleasant with sunny and warm days but cool nights, thanks to persistent high pressure and a dry air mass.
While the pressure gradient remains weaker across northwest Iowa into southwest Minnesota, the low level let increases across the entire area tonight. If the low level jet increases moisture enough in the 700-800 mb level, could see some isolated thunderstorms develop after 9z.
Otherwise, another hot day expected for the region with highs in the low to mid 90s.
315 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.
150 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Deep pac nw upper trough will remain in place in the period, supporting sw flow aloft.
Highs maybe a degree or two warmer than today. The upper ridge over us now will shift just a bit to the east and flatten out while troughing over the western CONUS shifts slowly east. This will leave us in weak sw flow aloft with south sfc winds brining warmer temperatures and higher dew points/humidity Mon-Tue. High pressure in control of the weather across the area and should bring a clear sky and light wind to the region.
The broad upper high will remain over Oklahoma through the weekend with the deep- layer moisture axis persisting over the panhandles.
With a cloudy sky by morning, and SE winds remaining elevated, temperatures tonight will be much warmer than last night, with lows in the 60s. Windy and warmer. Lee side surface cyclone in SE Wyoming near 998 mb will yield a surface pressure gradient of about 10 mb across SW KS during the afternoon. Winds will continue to be from a southerly direction as an area of low pressure intensifies across eastern Colorado.
155 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Not much change in the weather will occur this weekend as a blocking pattern sets up over the nation. Hermine will stall just off the East Coast, which will keep a sharp mid-level ridge over the Lower Ohio Valley for much of the weekend. There will be a gradual increase in warmth and humidity as the low-level flow veers from northeast to southeast over the weekend.
MOS min temps look reasonable, with a slight preference towards the lower MET MOS numbers, yielding mainly mid 50s for most areas to around 60 in STL city. Prefer the higher MET MOS values again, which shows around 80 for most locations, with lower 80s for STL metro.
624 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Dry conditions will prevail through midweek, but with much warmer temperature as a high amplitude ridge builds in the wake of the tropical activity, and in advance of a Western CONUS trough. Rain chances were maintained for the latter half of the week as per progs of the western trough sliding eastward. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under building high pressure. No restrictions expected under high pressure.
1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Manual upper-air analysis at 00z revealed a prominent ridge from central Canada into the central Plains with bracketing troughs along the Pacific Northwest Coast and over eastern Canada into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The ridge will begin to break down as it shifts east over the next 24 to 48 hours in response to the amplification and inland movement of a mid-level trough over the western CONUS. trough, the first of which will traverse portions of the northern and central Plains later today into tonight.
1208 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across our area.
Highs for today in the low to mid 80s may be a bit on the high side in some places but will leave as is per latest guidance.
256 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will continue to build across our region from eastern Canada into the weekend.
312 PM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Low pressure will remain over much of the region through the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures and occasional daytime breezes.
A cold front continues to move through southwest Montana this afternoon, producing breezy conditions across western Montana and central Idaho. Morning temperatures could be quite chilly, especially for the higher valley locations that clear out nicely overnight.
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Popcorn showers have been very slow moving this afternoon as the overhead ridge axis has resulted in very weak steering currents. The upper ridge will be well to our northeast by tomorrow afternoon and southwesterly flow will set up overhead and will help dry the mid to upper levels. Surface moisture will still be bountiful and may allow for some shower development near/along a developing lee trof. Some degree of southwest flow aloft is expected to skirt over the Panhandle with a series of disturbances ejecting out of the western trough from the northern Rockies into the northern high plains.
Not much change in the weather will occur this weekend as a blocking pattern sets up over the nation. Hermine will stall just off the East Coast, which will keep a sharp mid-level ridge over the Lower Ohio Valley for much of the weekend. There will be a gradual increase in warmth and humidity as the low-level flow veers from northeast to southeast over the weekend.
Model guidance, especially the high resolution and convective allowing, has come into good agreement with some kind of cluster of storms to move across the west and especially the southwest portion of the area later this afternoon into the evening. Dewpoints in the lower 60s extend across southwest Kansas into east central Colorado. Higher pressure remains over eastern Kansas tonight and into Saturday as the lee trough deepens along the front range as the upper ridge moves further east and a short wave trough aloft sweeps across the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft remains over the forecast area through the weekend as the upper trough deepens over the western U. As a result, several short wave troughs will lift out across the forecast area with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon through the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s across the northeast to the lower 70s across the central and southern zones.
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Longwave troughing continues to dig southward across the western CONUS this morning, while upper-level ridging extended northward from the central Plains up into the Great Lakes Region and central Canada. This weekend as persistent troughing over the western CONUS brings southwest flow across the central Rockies, lee troughing will develop across the High Plains.
1118 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the nrn plains/upper midwest with strong upper trof pushing into the pac nw. trof extends through ern MT/ern WY/ern CO. With mlcape values of 1000-2000J/KG along/east of the sfc trof and ample deep layer shear. Slightly cooler air will filter into our wrn zones as sfc trof works through the wrn Dakotas.
Mid level ridging will continue across the area tonight and the center of the 850mb ridge slides sightly eastward.
THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 333 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY.
125 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 A PESKY UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 18z/1pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending from West Virginia southwestward to an area of low pressure over the Texas panhandle. As a vigorous upper low noted on the latest water vapor imagery over northern New Mexico pivots northeastward, the front will get a push northward tonight. While the upper low appears rather progressive, a dry E/NE low-level flow north of the front will likely impede the initial northward progress of precip. Still looks like a rather wet weekend in central and eastern IL as a potent upper level low and cyclonic surface system works its way into the Midwest from the southern Plains.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PUSHING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DID NOT GET SUPPRESSED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH BY THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH THE OLD ATLANTIC RIDGE. AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE BLANKETING THE DEEP SOUTH/ERN GOMEX WILL DRIFT INTO W ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN H30-H20 ZONAL FLOW PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER. A REASONABLE ASSESSMENT GIVEN THE ERLY FLOW AND THE LOW LYR MEAN RH VALUES ASSOCD WITH RIDGE AIRMASS. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONSOLIDATE FARTHER NORTH ON SAT AND INDUCE A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MT SNOW TO THE AREA WILL RIDE ALONG THE CO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. BECOMING DOMINATED BY FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS THROWN IN. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE U. THIS LOW TURNS BRIEFLY EAST AND MOVES INTO AZ SAT.
As an upper level low pressure system circulates directly over western Montana, it will continue to deliver streams of precipitation across north central Idaho, as well as the Bitterroot and Missoula valleys.
114 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW.
250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. RUNNING ONLY NEAR A TENTH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE WINDS UP TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RAIN POTENTIAL IS LESS.
327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE HIGHS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.