Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The moisture influx is expected to fuel showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain from late morning through the afternoon. The Pacific trough mentioned previously will be sweeping into western Utah late this afternoon and will move overhead tonight as a shallow disturbance. Drying follows the trough passage on Saturday, mainly across the north with high pressure building to the west. Meanwhile, a push of cooler air is expected to bring about 3 to 5 degrees of cooling across the forecast area.
421 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 We had a cool front move through late last evening that will result in lower dewpoints/humidity today as well as high temperatures that will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
An area of low pressure with an associated warm front emerges from the Rockies while the upper ridge centered over the central Plains breaks down. In addition, a modest low level jet develops along the High Plains. Moisture convergence near the low, modest instability, and strong deep layer shear support the threat of some strong or severe storms. At the surface, a new warm front stalls across Nebraska and is followed by a strong cool front toward the end of the week. The Western US upper trough digs in, and guidance suggests a closed low developing over the northern Rockies.
544 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A steady increase in mid level moisture will commence this morning immediately downstream of advancing low pressure. The lowest levels will struggle to saturate during the daylight period, suggesting conditions will hold at VFR until closer to sunset. MVFR restrictions will become increasingly likely tonight, particularly from PTK northward as boundary layer conditions moisten in the wake of the low. 5 C/km progged to reside north of I-69 (per Rap), where the highest scattered pops will be carried. Could be overdone with the low level moisture/low clouds, but that would then set us up for some fog, and will add patchy fog to the forecast, as low stratus could also just build down through the night, before the northwest flow begins to pick up Saturday morning to usher in the drier air.
917 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A weak cold front will push through the area today bringing a slight chance of precipitation. High pressure will reestablish itself across the region for the weekend, yielding slightly below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. This is associated with some mid level energy pushing across the southern Great Lakes and a weak cold front that will drop down into our area this afternoon. Highs today will range from the mid/upper 70s in the north to the low/mid 80s across the south. Northwest flow aloft will establish itself over the region tonight, which will allow high pressure at the surface to begin to build in.
An upper ridge and a drier airmass will provide dry and hot weather for the weekend. Model guidance temperatures were similar with highs in the lower to middle 90s, which is above climatological norms for early September. The downslope flow pattern should lead to mostly clear skies, along with warmer than normal temperatures during the day. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s for Saturday.
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 An upper level ridge remains to the west of the area early this morning leaving the region in a northwest upper level flow pattern. Highs today will range from the middle 80s across central Missouri to the lower 90s across southern Missouri. Highs Saturday will remain from the lower 80s across central Missouri to around 90 across far southwestern Missouri, as a slightly cooler air mass slides south.
Mid level trough ascd with departing Dorian remains across the SE US coast to N FL. Adjusted coastal values upward to 96 degrees at peak heating, which will be the highest across the area. Slight chance of light showers will continue over the Treasure Cst and Atlantic waters south of Sebastian tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s, with highest values again along the coast.
644 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 At 2 AM, a cold front extended from Medford WI to Oelwein IA. This will result in the low clouds remaining across the area. Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s north of Interstate 94 and in the lower and mid-50s across the remainder of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A little bit of frontogenesis aloft should be enough to get some showers going, but Canadian high pressure will be sinking southward with northerly flow providing plenty of dry air to contend with.
/Issued 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019/ Another hot day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today as the upper level ridge continues to reign supreme across the Southern Plains.
The closed upper low that pulled moist unstable air into the region is opening into an upper trough and moving out of the region this morning, with an upper level ridge moving in quickly behind it. With the ridge building in today, humidities above the surface will drop quickly from the higher elevations downward. By the afternoon humidities will drop into the teens at ridge top elevations east of the Cascades, in spite of the recent rain, and on the far east side min humidities will be in the low teens by late afternoon.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast again this afternoon as strong high pressure lingers over the region. By Saturday, the first in a series of troughs moving in from the west will bring some slight cooling in the mid levels and result in better instability.
The upper ridge will break down quickly by tonight into early Saturday as a 500mb wave works from the Pac NW/Northern Rockies into the western Dakotas.
We will be monitoring dew point trends through the day as a warm front now over southeast MO into eastern AR pushes east into middle TN and northwest AL this afternoon. A much warmer night is expected tonight, as the frontal just pushes into northern Alabama in most guidance and stalls. Northwest flow becomes more zonal on Saturday, as upper level ridging builds back towards the southeastern CONUS.
Winds at GUY should remain light and variable as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Today through Tonight 596dam 500mb ridge currently centered over SE CO will begin to break down through the short term period as a longwave trough, currently located over the west coast, translates eastward. Only exception to this will be the OK Panhandle, where winds may become light and variable by midday with a bit of an easterly component as a weak cold front stalls near the KS/OK border.
654 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A weak cold front will push through the area today bringing a slight chance of precipitation. High pressure will reestablish itself across the region for the weekend, yielding slightly below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. At the same time a cold front is forecast to work southeast into Ohio. Northwest flow aloft will establish itself over the region tonight, which will allow high pressure at the surface to begin to build in.
Today will be another warmer than normal day with just a few lingering high Sierra showers.
255 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The upper level ridge continues to break down as an upper level low works its way through the region tonight and through the day Saturday. The exception being the far southwest CWA which may see the low 70s if the sun comes out.
As the main ridge starts to deamplify through the weekend, a slow return of moisture comes back into the region, starting with the far northern and northwestern Panhandles for this weekend. Going into the weekend, latest 06/12Z model and probabilistic guidance is showing a H500 trough moving into northern California and parts of the intermountain west. Downstream, this will deamplify our ridge centered over the southern Plains. A perturbation over the high terrain in NM by Saturday evening may even bring a chance of an shower or storm across the far northwestern Panhandles.
At the surface, a cold front was moving south across KS and MO. The cold front will push into NE OK/NW AR this evening and will likely stall near or just north of I-40 tonight. Kept lows slightly cooler across the north than blended guidance.
401 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The latest surface analysis and satellite data shows a cold front to our north and northwest across portions of Ohio and southern Illinois and Indiana. The temperatures and fog potential for Saturday night will also depend on the mixing out of the lower deck of clouds, but for now will keep some slight temperature splits and will keep fog out for now. A cold front will sweep into the area late today into tonight and this could bring a small chance of rain shower later this afternoon.
A dry cold front over the Mid-Mississippi valley will move across the Midsouth tonight resulting in slightly cooler and drier conditions Saturday.
Model guidance temperatures were similar with highs in the lower to middle 90s, which is above climatological norms for early September.
A mid-upper level trough axis will develop out west early in the coming week, which will reload again sometime mid-week.
231 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The main concern through this evening is a cold front that was near the I-64 corridor at 19z. Abundant sun has allowed temps to reach the lower 90s in some areas. Dew points have risen into the lower 70s as far east as a kmdh to kpah line. Cooler north winds will bring temps down to around 60 by daybreak. The models indicate the low levels will be slow to dry out, and some of the raw model cigs and vsbys indicate fog and low clouds by 12z.
131 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 An upper level ridge remains to the west of the area early this morning leaving the region in a northwest upper level flow pattern. Highs today will range from the middle 80s across central Missouri to the lower 90s across southern Missouri. Highs Saturday will remain from the lower 80s across central Missouri to around 90 across far southwestern Missouri, as a slightly cooler air mass slides south.
142 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A weak cold front will push through the area today bringing a slight chance of precipitation. High pressure will reestablish itself across the region for the weekend, yielding slightly below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. This is associated with some mid level energy pushing across the southern Great Lakes and a weak cold front that will drop down into our area this afternoon. Highs today will range from the mid/upper 70s in the north to the low/mid 80s across the south. Northwest flow aloft will establish itself over the region tonight, which will allow high pressure at the surface to begin to build in.
Light winds and dry conditions overnight with low temps in the upper 70s to around 80 along coastal areas THIS WEEKEND: High pressure will continue to build aloft with southwesterly winds becoming souther with limited rain chances mainly concentrated to the interior. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices soaring into the mid 100s across much of the region.
212 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Mean troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm track. Expect cooler weather with passing impulses emanating form the NE Pac upper trough. The best chance of precip still looks to be over NW SD closer to the upper trough and associated LSA, with more sct activity over the southern 2/3. Main upper trough will slowly progress east across the region Sat, with the FA mainly being under the dry slot, where connective instability will be favored over the SW 2/3. Further NE over NW SD, it will be much cooler with occasional showers expected. Drier air will advect into the region Sun, with mainly dry wx expected ahead of the next deep upper trough.
Mostly clear skies and light winds underneath a ridge of high pressure continued at mid morning across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the weak surface boundary is expected to continue to sag southward underneath the ridge of high pressure. Overall this boundary should have minimal impacts to afternoon temperatures with forecast highs in the lower 90s in far Northwest Arkansas to the upper 90s south of Interstate 40.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central U. A trough is over the East Coast.
/issued 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the n-cntl Gulf which has ushered in a light nrly low-level flow over the forecast area. Meanwhile the flow around Hurricane Dorian has helped push a backdoor cold front swwd to a position from the Mid-South to the FL Panhandle overnight. Water vapor imagery continues to show mid/upper-level ridging in place from the Rockies through the srn Plains to the wrn Gulf Coast region. The ridging aloft is progged to linger into the weekend, limiting moisture through the column and keeping convective development at bay.
437 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The latest surface analysis and satellite data shows a cold front to our north and northwest across portions of Ohio and southern Illinois and Indiana. The temperatures and fog potential for Saturday night will also depend on the mixing out of the lower deck of clouds, but for now will keep some slight temperature splits and will keep fog out for now. A weak cold front will be dropping to the Ohio Valley from the north, but stalling and losing definition as it approaches KY.
Readings in central Missouri may only reach the lower 80s.
As the hurricane moves off to our east, the weak low level trough tow our west will get absorbed in the circulation allowing a low level flow to develop from the NW.
144 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 311 AM CDT Cold front will sweep across the area this morning.
258 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Updated at 253 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A well defined cold front is showing up on surface observations this afternoon in central Illinois and Indiana. This cold front will slide into southern Indiana over the next few hours, and eventually central Kentucky this evening through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be on the cooler side tomorrow behind the front, and may take a while to climb in areas that see extended cloud cover.
Made some tweaks to raise the high temperatures over portions of the coastal areas.
Temps will even climb into the mid 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region by mid portion of next work week, and at least staying in the low 90s for the remainder of next work week. This continuance of the summertime wx pattern provided by building ridging influences aloft as the weekend into the first half of the work week progresses. This wx pattern will be supported by sfc ridging influences across the southeast U.
After the trough clears the CWA (by sunset), cooler and drier air will filter back into the area. Models have signaled light precipitation along a weak low/mid level trough axis that will rotate through in the late morning and afternoon portion of Saturday.
138 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Weak cold front tonight may yield a few very light rain showers overnight into midday Saturday.
As the ridge aloft and to our west weakens and flattens due to a trough pushing through, we will see an increase in pops.
For tonight, cooler and drier high pressure is filtering into the area. While the air mass will be drier, with calm winds near the high, this will allow temperatures to cool off into the upper 50s.
352 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 This afternoon, morning stratus had broken into scattered cumulus clouds as high pressure built into the area. This high pressure will drive the weather through the short term.
1003 AM MST Fri Sep 6 2019 Expecting another hot day across Southern Arizona, with the mercury reaching into the low triple digits at many low elevation locations.
Tonight, high pressure will move off to the east as an approaching upper trough leads to falling heights aloft. On Saturday, the aforementioned trough will continue to push into the area, and we expect to see thunderstorms redevelop in the afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a warm front that creeps back into the area in the afternoon. A few storms are possible in the afternoon, but the main timeframe for storms may end up being in the late evening as the low-level jet enhances low-level convergence. I expect the highest coverage of storms to occur roughly from Phillipsburg to Red Cloud to Geneva and then gradually move southeast through the overnight.
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A few showers will be possible into this evening as a weak cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
248 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 311 AM CDT Cold front will sweep across the area this morning.
Partial clearing and rain free conditions return for Saturday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ A 595 upper lvl ridge will remain generally centered over the TX panhandle early this wknd. With dewpoints either side of 70 degrees, expect most overnight lows in or near the lower 70s, and daytime highs will rise to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
As the ridge remains over the region, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow and dry weather will continue.
The focus will shift to heavy rain overnight, as the low level jet veers to the west/southwest, causing storms to train.
However, most locations will cap off in the low/mid 60's due to increaing high level clouds from north to south tonight. These clouds are associated with a mid level short wave and weak surface cold front that will dive into the region in the NW flow aloft. Skies will become mostly sunny again, and highs Saturday behind this front will actually be slightly warmer than today with generally mid/upper 80's in southwest VA and northeast TN and upper 80's/low 90's from the middle valley and points south.
159 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Thunderstorms are developing in association with a vigorous trough moving through the region. The highest threat for heavy rain, that may lead to flash flooding, will be in southern Idaho County and through Lemhi County until early evening; as such, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. Once fog lifts and dissipates, high temperatures will rise to above average Saturday afternoon with a short-lived ridge of high pressure over the Idaho and western Montana.
Moisture values are the highest in the western CWA and some isolated showers have developed in this area. Otherwise, the high pressure system remains in play for the remainder of the area and temperatures are responding accordingly. Dewpoints are in the lower to middle 60s which should keep heat index values below advisory criteria. Low temperatures should drop into the lower to middle 70s. For tomorrow, dry weather is expected across the area as the ridging remains. However, a weak upper level low pressure system is expected to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature should help weaken the ridge as it slowly moves west. Another dry night is expected tomorrow night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Continued with a cooler solution of lows across the northern zones in association with the lower dewpoint air. The warm front looks to stall out across northern Kansas, but there is some wiggle room still with the frontal positioning. A weak cold front pushed south across the DDC, GCK, HYS terminals before stalling out near the LBL terminal early this afternoon.
GOES image of total precipitable water continues to show moisture depth decreasing over south Texas as the mid level ridge builds to the south.
1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 We had a cool front move through late last evening that will result in lower dewpoints/humidity today as well as high temperatures that will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
259 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 With the distinct trough of low pressure emerging through the northern Rockies region, the stage is set for the first of multiple storm systems expected to move through northeast Montana over the next several days. Later Saturday night, a short- wave ridge builds into the region from the west and provides the first break between weather systems.
944 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A weak cold front is moving east of the area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop over the Cascades on Saturday as a trough moves inland.
This first front will also mark the beginning of a cooling trend that will continue into the beginning of the week as upper level troughing establishes itself over the PacNW.
Weak cold front will bring a wind shift overnight however wind speeds remain light. At the surface, a cold front was moving south across KS and MO. The cold front will push into NE OK/NW AR this evening and will likely stall near or just north of I-40 tonight. Kept lows slightly cooler across the north than blended guidance.
Skies have cleared in the wake of Dorian and weak high pressure remains in place over the region. A cold front was noted over central KY and southern MO and will push southward into the Appalachians by late tonight.
521 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Mean troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm track. Expect cooler weather with passing impulses emanating form the NE Pac upper trough. The best chance of precip still looks to be over NW SD closer to the upper trough and associated LSA, with more sct activity over the southern 2/3. Main upper trough will slowly progress east across the region Sat, with the FA mainly being under the dry slot, where connective instability will be favored over the SW 2/3. Further NE over NW SD, it will be much cooler with occasional showers expected. Drier air will advect into the region Sun, with mainly dry wx expected ahead of the next deep upper trough.
406 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show that the cold front has moved into southern Missouri. This front will move south of MO/IL this evening and high pressure currently over the Dakotas will build down into the area tonight into early Saturday.
This afternoon, morning stratus had broken into scattered cumulus clouds as high pressure built into the area. This high pressure will drive the weather through the short term.
701 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show that the cold front has moved into southern Missouri. This front will move south of MO/IL this evening and high pressure currently over the Dakotas will build down into the area tonight into early Saturday.
Generally westerly to northwesterly winds will continue into the weekend as weak ridging builds in across southern Florida.
A dry cold front will pass through Northern California on Saturday bringing a cooling trend and gusty west winds during the afternoon and evening.
01Z surface analysis places a weak cold front from along the Ohio river back through Southern Missouri, Southern Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Short term Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions suggest a potential for a few rain showers overnight, especially north of I-40 associated with the cold front. A dry cold front over the Mid-Mississippi valley will move across the Midsouth tonight resulting in slightly cooler and drier conditions Saturday.
A mid level trough aloft extending into central FL will sag southeast overnight with isolated showers/storms possible continuing across the Treasure coast gulf stream and Atlantic waters. Nudged lows a few degrees warmer than MOS min temps with highs in the mid 90s today and previous morning lows from 79 to 82 as ASOS sites well above guidance.
921 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Upper level and water vapor analysis this evening places northwest flow across much of the Ohio valley extending into the Southern Appalachians, with ridging centered over the southern plains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 88 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 61 88 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 83 58 84 / 20 0 0 0.
954 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Lower tropospheric troughing remains along the southeast U. However, weak ridging adjusting northward near and east of the Bahamas positions a col point near the Keys, with some of the earlier-seen shallow boundaries perhaps firing a shower or two.
As the hurricane moves even further offshore overnight, the weak low level trough to our west will get absorbed in the circulation allowing a low level flow to develop from the NW.