Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will gradually warm and the winds will subside through Saturday as high pressure influences the region. The entire region will remain under a clear sky with light winds tonight through much of the day Saturday before the next trough, currently digging over western Canada, brings in another round of north winds Saturday night and Sunday.
242 AM MDT Sat Oct 26 2019 The Pacific Northwest trough is making its way into the northern plains; its associated cold front is quickly approaching the CWA from the northwest. As the cold front slides through the region today, northwesterly winds will become gusty, and precip will spread across the CWA. Tonight, the frontogenesis and snow band shift southeastward, stretching from southwestern to central SD; this is where the highest QPF/snow is expected. Three to five inches of snow will be possible across southwestern SD, with the higher amounts generally closer to the NE border.
313 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 As the upper low moves across N TX this morning the next upper trough is moving down out of the NW.
However, widespread subfreezing temperatures are not expected. The upper low that affected the region yesterday will move into the Mississippi River valley on Saturday. Long wave troughing will dominate over North America with strong ridging into the Gulf of Alaska. However, this will lead to lee surface cyclogenesis/troughing on Saturday afternoon. The aforementioned long wave trough will send a cold front through on Sunday with most model solutions moving the front through by the afternoon.
Cold front continues to push south through the forecast area.
345 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 A cold front continues to slide through North Dakota this morning and should exit the state by the early afternoon hours. Cold advection continues Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of the upper level trough moves through the Dakotas with a secondary cold front.
The next weather system will approach the area Sunday bringing cooler temperatures and gusty west to southwest winds.
328 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Early this morning the upper low was located over north Texas and was moving eastward. Tonight a cold front will move southeast and into north central Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper trough drops southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies. The cold front should move through northeast and east central Kansas during the afternoon hours. Highs Sunday will range from the 40s in north central Kansas to the lower 60s southeast of I- 35.
1051 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Another round of winds are expected Saturday with the arrival of another cold front over central Washington. Winds and precipitation chances will wane by Saturday night allowing much cooler temperatures to move into the region. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Winds associated with todays passing cold front are generally on the decrease along with the rainfall.
As temperatures are only expected to reach the freezing mark for only a brief time, a freeze warning is not being issued. Otherwise west winds 5 to 10 mph will shift the southwest mid to late afternoon Saturday as temperatures rise to highs in the lower to mid 70s. A weak cold front will move along/north of I-20 in the Big Country Sunday afternoon, shifting winds to the northwest and north generally 10 mph or less.
1156 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Cold advection has cutoff for the time being and clouds have cleared, permitting temps to rise into the lower to mid 50s across the area. Still expecting additional light rain to affect portions of central to east Missouri beginning Saturday morning through the late afternoon as an upper low lifts northeast through the region. The next in a series of cold fronts will makes its way through the area Sunday afternoon across northwest Missouri, progressing southeast through central Missouri through Sunday night.
1132 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Overnight and Saturday dry conditions will continue as high pressure and clear skies begin to give way to increasing west winds ahead of the next storm. Saturday afternoon the upper trough and surface cold front will move into southern Wyoming. Scattered snow showers are expected over the lower elevations of NW CO and NE UT. Sunday the front and broad 500 mb trough will continue moving south through central CO and UT and into SW CO and SE UT.
Shower activity continues tonight as the upper low slowly works its way eastward. As the upper low approaches, winds will be on the increase, and will help temps to rise overnight. Rain chances will decrease a bit overnight from west to east, but still will have some showers and light rain/drizzle before the cold front brings more heavy rain late morning through the afternoon and evening across the area.
Tonight through Sunday Night: The h5 pattern has a large trough through the central part of the country with closed h5 low pressure over Oklahoma and Texas. Upstream, we are watching the next trough develop over Canada and into Montana, deepening and expanding south and southwestward through the weekend. The trough to the north will push a surface cold front into the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There is some frontogenesis, thus the low pops for parts of northeast Nebraska with a rain snow mix.
Today will be warm, dry, and breezy as a low amplitude progressive upper ridge passes overhead. Temperatures expected near or slightly warmer than normal and will be our warmest day of the coming week. This disturbance will dig southeast into the plateau region Sunday and shove a cold front southward through the area also on Sunday.
930 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 At around 9 am CDT, the cold front was approaching the Grand Forks and Jamestown areas, and will continue pushing east through the morning. Some areas in the southern James Valley in North Dakota may see temperatures top out in the lower 50s. A cold front continues to slide through North Dakota this morning and should exit the state by the early afternoon hours. Cold advection continues Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of the upper level trough moves through the Dakotas with a secondary cold front.
/issued 313 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ As the upper low moves across N TX this morning the next upper trough is moving down out of the NW.
428 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 GOES water imagery showed an upper low over the Arklatex early this morning, as Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was coming ashore over southern LA. Few changes to the forecast through midweek, with today's 00Z GFS coming into line with yesterday's ECMWF/Canadian consensus of a deepening longwave trof over the western CONUS.
Although there will be a downsloping component to the flow and warmer temperatures are expected today than yesterday, highs will remain well below normal as thermal ridge is not established yet.
IFR cloudiness will start out at all terminals in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga now over eastern Louisiana, and a strong cold front that has merged with Olga. /issued 404 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ Tropical storm Olga has merged with the cold frontal boundary this morning.
702 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Today will be sunny and warm, but a cold front will pass through overnight and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for Sunday. A cold front was draped to the south/southwest across the western Dakotas, with clear skies and southerly winds ahead of it. This will set the stage for warmer than normal temperatures, so continued with the recent trend of having the high end of guidance for today's highs. Overall development and movement of the western CONUS trough energy remains forecast challenge.
747 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Rain is expected today through Sunday morning with crossing low pressure. Did some minor touch ups of PoP to increase chances along the warm front, though further modification/increases likely through the morning as radar will better indicate how far east precip is reaching the ground. This jet, and SE wind, will also result in wind gusts from 30-40 mph on the wrn side of the Laurel Highlands and the WV/MD ridges. The highest wind speeds stay above the inversion level, so advisory level gusts are not expected. Guidance has trended faster with the speed of the low, resulting in lower QPF amounts. The low will exit quickly Sunday, with high pressure beginning to build back in by afternoon, ending the rain chances.
A cold front continues to slide through North Dakota this morning and should exit the state by the early afternoon hours. Cold advection continues Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of the upper level trough moves through the Dakotas with a secondary cold front.
A cold front will pass through Central California Sunday, bringing with it much cooler weather and gusty winds.
Cold front has progressed through most of the Devils Lake Basin and will be entering the RRV shortly. Water vapor loop showed upper level trough was located from southern ALTA into the Pacific Northwest. Cold front was located over northwest ND and will enter the far northwest zones around 12Z Sat. A weak 500mb trough passes through the FA on Sunday night. Think this may be more of a lake effect snow potential, due to the combination of very cold air in the 925-700mb layer over the warmer lake waters.
This will allow high temperatures to reach into the upper 50s while central Missouri stays closer to the lower 50s. This cold front will be the catalyst that drives us from fall to winter as we enter the work week.
/issued 503 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The upper low is progged to move northeast towards Illinois today. These southwest winds may become 10 to 15 mph later this afternoon as lee side troughing develops and tightens the pressure gradient.
404 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical storm Olga has merged with the cold frontal boundary this morning.
Early this morning the upper low was located over north Texas and was moving eastward. Tonight a cold front will move southeast and into north central Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper trough drops southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies. The cold front should move through northeast and east central Kansas during the afternoon hours. Highs Sunday will range from the 40s in north central Kansas to the lower 60s southeast of I- 35.
725 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 A warm front will be lifting north across the area through the morning. A cold front passage late in the period will shift winds to the W-SW, but MVFR cigs will linger behind it.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 55 72 51 / 70 100 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 57 71 50 / 10 100 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 55 71 48 / 30 100 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 57 71 48 / 10 100 30 0 TN.
1013 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Rain is expected today through Sunday morning with crossing low pressure. Warm frontal rain is trying to lift into the area. This jet, and SE wind, will also result in wind gusts from 30-40 mph on the wrn side of the Laurel Highlands and the WV/MD ridges. The highest wind speeds stay above the inversion level, so advisory level gusts are not expected. Guidance has trended faster with the speed of the low, resulting in lower QPF amounts. The low will exit quickly Sunday, with high pressure beginning to build back in by afternoon, ending the rain chances.
503 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 (Today and Tonight) The upper low is progged to move northeast towards Illinois today. These southwest winds may become 10 to 15 mph later this afternoon as lee side troughing develops and tightens the pressure gradient.
(previous discussion) Winds will continue to relax today as these shift from east this morning to southeast throughout the day as a low pressure on the Gulf of Mexico lifts to the north.
/issued 428 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ GOES water imagery showed an upper low over the Arklatex early this morning, as Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was coming ashore over southern LA. Few changes to the forecast through midweek, with today's 00Z GFS coming into line with yesterday's ECMWF/Canadian consensus of a deepening longwave trof over the western CONUS.
Water vapor loop showed upper level trough was located from southern ALTA into the Pacific Northwest. Cold front was located over northwest ND and will enter the far northwest zones around 12Z Sat. A weak 500mb trough passes through the FA on Sunday night. Think this may be more of a lake effect snow potential, due to the combination of very cold air in the 925-700mb layer over the warmer lake waters.
The first cold front finished pushing through the Northern Rockies last night, now the second arctic cold front is beginning to impact western Montana.
516 AM MDT Sat Oct 26 2019 The Pacific Northwest trough is making its way into the northern plains; its associated cold front is quickly approaching the CWA from the northwest. As the cold front slides through the region today, northwesterly winds will become gusty, and precip will spread across the CWA. Tonight, the frontogenesis and snow band shift southeastward, stretching from southwestern to central SD; this is where the highest QPF/snow is expected. Three to five inches of snow will be possible across southwestern SD, with the higher amounts generally closer to the NE border.
/issued 1041 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ Satellite imagery shows a broad area of stratus across the Lower Mississippi River Valley in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Based on this and the latest temperature guidance for today, this update has lowered max temperatures by several degrees with highs in the low to mid 60s. IFR cloudiness will start out at all terminals in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga now over eastern Louisiana, and a strong cold front that has merged with Olga. /issued 404 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ Tropical storm Olga has merged with the cold frontal boundary this morning.
S-SE low-mid level flow will prevail through tonight, thanks partly to a cold front over the central Gulf that will soon stall out on a line from the Florida Panhandle to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Indeed, all mesoscale models bring showers northward across at least the Lower Keys and possibly the Middle Keys starting around 8 or 9 pm. A cold front will stall over the east-central Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Afternoon forecast is in good shape with precipitation tapering off as the upper lows lifts northeast.
Cold front has moved through most of the western CWA, with the boundary extending from near Lake of the Woods to southeastern ND. The cold pattern continues into tomorrow with the upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Desert Southwest. Some clearing in the west Sunday night could drop the lows down into the teens, with low 20s elsewhere.
This amplified pattern will be characterized by long wave troughing over North America with ridging extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska. The initial plunge is expected to occur on Sunday with a passage of a cold front in the morning to afternoon hours.
/This Afternoon/ The morning water vapor imagery indicates the upper low entering Wrn AR attm, with subsidence expected to increase on the backside of this system especially for the afternoon as it quickly lifts NE into Nrn AR/Srn MO. Thus, have dropped -DZ mention for the afternoon as the upper low quickly pulls NE away from the area, and the wrap-around moisture continues to thin. Given this, have lowered max temps 1-3 degrees areawide, with temps struggling to reach/surpass 60 degrees across SE OK/much of SW AR where the lower cigs may persist a bit longer closer to the departing upper low.
238 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 A cold front continues to traverse the region and will be through the CWA over the next few hours. One to two inches of snow is possible in central South Dakota with the highest amounts likely confined to along and south of the I90 corridor. Beyond tonight, an upper level longwave trough sets up over the southwest to central CONUS and doesn't really move much through the workweek. By the weekend, models indicate the longwave trough will finally kick off to the east and a change to northwest flow will ensue.
Showers with embedded thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, as a series of warm frontal boundaries lift through ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will reach western counties toward dawn, bringing a line of showers and storms.
Tonight and Sunday The main focus of the short term focus has been the timing and placement of the cyclone moving northwards from the lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation is expected to fall as rain as temperatures through the boundary layer remain fairly warm before the cyclone departs. Rain and cloud cover will then move off quickly overnight, as the cyclone heads eastwards by Sunday morning. Kept temperatures a touch warmer, especially in areas seeing more sun in the afternoon along the east.
Somewhat warmer conditions are expected tomorrow, at least across the southeast half of Oklahoma, and in north Texas.
Expect to see localized areas with 7 to 10 degree temperature spreads behind the higher and lower nearby elevations.
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Cold front across central South Dakota as of 20Z will shift east across the forecast area through the evening hours. Winds will decrease Sunday night but northwest flow will draw sub freezing temperatures at 925 hpa into the region, where they will remain throughout the week. Large upper level trough in upper level jet develops late in the weekend across the north western quadrant of the lower 48 keeping temperatures unseasonably cool throughout the week.
The associated trailing surface cold front that moved southeast across North Dakota was exiting the Red River Valley into Minnesota. The upper level low associated with this large system was over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba with the base of the large trough digging south across the US Rockies. Cold advection continues tonight and Sunday as the axis of the upper level trough moves eastward through the Dakotas with a secondary cold front.
249 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Southwesterly downslope winds have returned across the region today, allowing temperatures to rebound from freezing/near freezing morning lows into the 70s for most locations this afternoon. Given the southwesterly breeze, which will continue through tonight and into tomorrow, overnight lows tonight/early Sunday morning will also be warmer, in the 40s for most of the area, though the Marfa Plateau will still likely dip to near freezing. However, there is one big caveat - the next approaching cold front, progged to move through the region beginning late Sunday afternoon. The timing and position of the front will dictate Sunday afternoon's high temperatures, with cooler conditions expected to the north as cold advection overspreads the region behind the front, and unusually warm conditions to the south of the front due to compressional warming and continued downslope flow.
Temperatures tonight should drop this evening under any clear skies, but another wave will bring back clouds and isolated snow showers as this upper trough is in place over the Canadian Prairies.
1041 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Satellite imagery shows a broad area of stratus across the Lower Mississippi River Valley in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Based on this and the latest temperature guidance for today, this update has lowered max temperatures by several degrees with highs in the low to mid 60s. IFR cloudiness will start out at all terminals in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga now over eastern Louisiana, and a strong cold front that has merged with Olga. /issued 404 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ Tropical storm Olga has merged with the cold frontal boundary this morning.
138 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 A warm front will lift gradually north across the state today, followed by a period of rainy weather tonight through midday Sunday.
220 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon revealing a closed low spinning northeastward across southern MO this afternoon while a mid- level trough was dropping southeast through the Dakotas. Visible satellite showing cirrus shield from that closed low covering a good portion of our forecast area. With the departure of that low Sunday, a cold front will slip through the area with increasing cloudiness. High pressure builds in from the Plains Sunday night for partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
The low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Great Lakes Region tonight, dragging a cold front through our area. Expect these winds to intensify late this afternoon into the first part of tonight as the low level jet strengthens, then quickly diminish as the winds shift more to the southwest and weaken near and behind the front. Will keep the high wind warning as is for now.
These winds are behind a dry cold front that passed through the area early this morning, so temperatures will also be much cooler than yesterday.
1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 A cold front continues to slide across South Dakota. A cold front will sweep in from the west this morning. A deep upper trough will begin to dig into the Dakotas tonight. While daytime highs will remain above freezing, tonight they will fall into the 20s. While highs are expected to climb into the 50s today, highs will only top out in the 30s under the upper trough on Sunday. The upper pattern throughout the extended features a semi- permanent longwave trough parked over the central CONUS. A strong cold front will sweep across the area bringing gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph this afternoon and evening.
255 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Low pressure continues to track up the Mississippi River Valley and has resulted in widespread rain across much of the area today. The rain will continue into the evening along a deformation band on the NW side of the low before finally moving out of the region prior to midnight. Clouds will begin to move back into the area Sunday night as a weak cold front approaches the area from the NW.
At the start of the period, the region is under southwest flow aloft as a large trough strengthens across the northern Rockies and ridging prevails along the east coast.
Upper low pressure is lifting into Missouri and southern Illinois this afternoon with a broad deformation precipitation shield mostly east of Iowa though a few sprinkles/light showers have clipped into the southeast portion of the state. A weak high pressure ridge extends though Iowa, just northwest of the aforementioned system. Dry air associated with the high pressure has kept that state mostly precipitation free. A thermal ridge will pass across Iowa tonight into early Sunday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through the state during the day Sunday. This ridge will help keep temperatures above freezing most locations.
Areas of rain and IFR cigs will improve this afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the upper low pulls away. Afternoon forecast is in good shape with precipitation tapering off as the upper lows lifts northeast.
339 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Rainfall will end from west to east during the late afternoon as lift around the departing upper low weakens. Heights will rebound nicely on Sunday as a subtle ridge develops ahead of the deepening mean trough over the western US. Under these favorable conditions along with abundant sunshine look for a much warmer day on Sunday.
Gradient between high pressure along the eastern seaboard and a cold front over the central Gulf of Mexico maintains breezy southerly flow today before gradually decreasing overnight. Southerly flow in place between high pressure along the eastern seaboard and an approaching cold front over the Gulf of Mexico.
Sfc front should push thru mid state region this evening as sfc/upper level low pressure system moves quickly newd into the cntrl Great Lakes Region on Sun morning. Mid state region should remain dry Sun thru Tue due to transitioning sfc ridging influences and dry nwly flow aloft. Latest GFS/ECMWF solutions much more in agreement with mid next work week system on timing/shwr coverage across the area as deep upper level troughing develops across the cntrl plains and moves newd dragging a sfc front across the mid state region on Thu. Behind mentioned sfc frontal passage, lows around freezing will be possible Thu night, Fri night, and even Sat night.