Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WET SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND WINDY EARLY THANKSGIVING WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MIDNIGHT. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT ON STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
LOOK FOR SKIES TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONLY VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING, AND ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DECENT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SEEN OVER THE AREA AS WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS.
214 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 The coldest night of the season so far is underway early this morning, with 2 AM temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Breezy southwest winds will continue through mid week, along with a corresponding increase in daytime highs as high pressure pushes into the Mid Atlantic.
322 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING MIDDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS PAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
1141 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1/2KM WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO APPROACH 40KTS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE OBSERVATION AT LONESOME PINE, VA BRIEFLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A POTENTIAL DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
125 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
1013 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LEE TROFFING ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING A NICE WARM UP TO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THESE AREAS.
318 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 EXPECT A COLD START TO THE DAY AS EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. AND THUS WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WRN ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS INTO CENTRAL KS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI.
-HOWERTON UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO ABOUND THIS PERIOD DESPITE RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
STILL LOOKING WARMER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. COLORADO IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALOFT AS A JET DIGS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. BUT EXPECTING THESE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE RIGHT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MORE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL ADVECT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ALSO DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. THE REMAINING SNOWFIELD MAY KEEP SOME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER AT LEAST ON THE PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO TODAY.
1246 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
400 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL BUILD BUILD EAST TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NOT SEEING ANY SHOW REPORTS FM OBS AT THE HIGHER ELEVS. ANY ACCUMS IN THE HIGHLANDS WOULD BE LGT. CAA TDA WL BOTH CREATE BRZY CONDS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ABT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN YDA. MU TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
Scattered mid/high clouds are possible until an upper trough axis exits the region. A strong vort max is forecast to move onshore by 12z Tue and develop into a large low pressure system over the western CONUS. Wind will continue to diminish tonight, and then back to the south-southwest by morning as high pressure drifts south of the area. Wind will continue to diminish tonight, and then back to the south-southwest by mid to late Sunday morning as high pressure drifts south of the area.
334 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA WILL COME TO AN END.
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAINLY NUISANCE ITEMS DURING THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED EAST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED 344 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR NEW IBERIA/MORGAN CITY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME WARMING AT 700 MB WHICH COULD HELP MODIFY LOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
301 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
1231 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TOMORROW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
Embedded in this northwesterly flow an upper level trough was evident over South Dakota. At the surface an area of high pressure was located from Oklahoma to Missouri. we've loaded in the MOS consensus forecast for tonight, which ruins a few degrees cooler than the models. Anything from a dry slot with mainly dry conditions here, to widespread drizzle or rain/convection ahead of the cold frontal boundary is possible as well as accumulating snow on a properly positioned deformation zone. In the meantime, the relatively warming highs will continue onto about early to mid week as Pacific high pressure continues to overspread the central plains.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE AS COLD AIR IS INVADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE ADVANCING MID LVL TROUGH. AND RIDGE ZONES AS WLY FLOW DEEPENS. THAT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING. SCT MRNG SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES.
252 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING MIDDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS PAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
Beyond that high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the region dry through the period. By the end of the short term period southerly flow on the back side of the high and winds aloft becoming southwest will begin to advect moisture back across the area but not enough to produce precipitation anywhere in our area.
Conditions will improve Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
612 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 338 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/ ATTM TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH MAINLY LOW 40S DEWPOINTS. AS THE UPPER LOW/CDFNT EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE HIGHER ON RIDGE TOPS. AFTER 15Z SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALONG WITH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND NIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER WINDS INTO THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG AND STRATUS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
240 AM PST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL RECEDE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.
ALL OF THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK/FLAT UPPER RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPS REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WHILE WE ARE STILL SEEING A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS (RETURNING STARTING SAT NIGHT ON INTO SUN). GFS KEEPING WITH A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROF THAN THE ECMWF WITH THESE RUNS. WINDS THEN DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SETX LIKELY REACHING THE COAST AROUND 1-3 AM THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SETX THU-SAT MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15-22 KNOTS.
802 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR VETERANS DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE LOW AND CONTINUED DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.
801 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT TODAY.
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHWRS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS E TX AND EXPAND FARTHER EAST DURING THE DAY WITH A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT RACES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE ENE OVER MUCH OF CO. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CATCH UP TO THE DRY PUSH AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THE LINE OF WEAKENING WEATHER ACROSS AND ON OUT OF OUR AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MB) IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 020 AND 025 ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.
904 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
650 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE ENE OVER MUCH OF CO. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CATCH UP TO THE DRY PUSH AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THE LINE OF WEAKENING WEATHER ACROSS AND ON OUT OF OUR AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO IOWA TO HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST.
WHICH WILL BECOME MORE COMMON LATER THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EVERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP T 55 MPH POSSIBLE. SFC CYCLONE OVR ERN CO WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THIS AFTN AS IT HEADS INTO CNTRL IA AND A BIT FURTHER AS IT TRACKS INTO ERN WI BY DAYBREAK THU. SECONDARY BUT PERHAPS MORE SIG WIND CONCERNS ARISE THU AFTN/EVE IN ASSOCN/W SECONDARY SW DIGGING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH CNTRD ACRS THE LAKES AND TERTIARY LL WIND MAX ROTATING THROUGH IN THE AFTN.
556 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado. This low is expected to deepen significantly today as it ejects to Iowa by 00Z Thursday (6 pm this evening). This continues to be a little slower than previously anticipated, meaning the bulk of the rainfall with this system (and severe weather risk) should hold off until tonight as the trailing cold front swings through the area. While gradient winds will be increasing today with the approach of the system, do not expect a significant severe storm risk until right along/ahead of the cold front tonight. But the upper low is deepening as well, with gradients increasing aloft.
843 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
616 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT TODAY.
BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT NIGHT. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DIGGING LEE SIDE TROF WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS. COOLER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S.
604 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR VETERANS DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
923 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT THIS MORNING AS BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS MIX OUT THE LOWER LAYERS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE AROUND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH PATCHY FOG ABLE TO FORM OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO FILTER IN. MAINLY A MANIFESTATION OF COOLER AIR.
653 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
1100 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY 16Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
930 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA BY SUNRISE THU MORNING. COOLER LOWS TONIGHT WITH U50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NORTH OF I-4 AND L60S SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COLD FRONT/RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING TIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
500 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS THE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE U. COOLER AIR WILL BE KEEPING OUR TEMPS MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
624 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
953 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
300 AM PST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
/ISSUED 350 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/ MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD TO DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS STRONG AUTUMN STORM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING ELONGATED OVER THE GULF STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.
627 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 57 68 42 / 0 70 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 53 67 39 / 0 60 60 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 53 66 40 / 0 70 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 48 66 37 / 0 40 70 10.
1003 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL RECEDE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.
351 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RIDGES STAYING FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. AND THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
930 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
251 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
321 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
1130 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 The warm front was splitting the forecast area, and right through the KC Metro. This will result in a large range of temperatures across the forecast area, with far northwestern Missouri hovering in the lower 50s, and parts of west central to central Missouri warming to near 70 degrees. Little variation in the temperature is expected Saturday night as the warm front will remain draped over northwestern Missouri and strong warm and moist advection persists.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
842 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A storm this weekend will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of central Washington. Widespread precip from the low pressure system spinning off the southern BC coast is expected to reach the Cascade crest in the next hour or two, then spread east across the Inland Northwest later this afternoon. /Kelch 12Z TAFS: A decaying low pressure system near KGEG at 12Z today will pass east and out of the region by 18Z. A stronger storm system will arrive this afternoon with a warm frontal precipitation shield developing over the western TAFs between 22Z and 00Z and spread across the entire region between 00Z and 03Z with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions in -RA and -RASN at all TAF site except KLWS which will remain VFR or briefly MVFR.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND A SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES WELL WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA. /ISSUED 1110 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE REST WILL COME TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM /WHICH IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH NOW ON MODEL RUNS/ AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
1204 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1037 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF IT. WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO SE AND INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
SATELLITE SHOWS WARM FRONT IS ENHANCING. A SECOND WAVE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS DESCHUTES COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH A LOW DIGGING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 50S. MODELS SHOWED THIS LOW LEVEL SATURATION BEST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND INCLUDED A SHORT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST NEAR SUNRISE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY TOMORROW AFTER EVERYWHERE BUT COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
242 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT VERY WARM AIR INTO THE STATE.
244 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.