Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convection has been very isolated this afternoon as dewpoints have mixed out into the 60s and an upper-level ridge axis located east of the area exerts its influence. Slight rain chances will remain in the forecast after midnight in the west given the high PW values and divergence ahead of an upper-level jet streak that will approach the area as it rotates around the base of the upper low.
The upper level low is currently centered near our northern CWA and continues to slowly move. There will be a threat for thunderstorms to develop closer to the center of the low late this afternoon and overnight. Will have the highest PoPs in this location tonight and this area is most likely to see the heavier rain totals. Moisture is expected to increase under the low with PW values rising above 1. In addition, models are progging Q-Vector convergence on the backside of the upper low which will allow for rising motions in the atmosphere to allow for convective development. By tomorrow night, the upper low should begin to break down as it moves slowly to the southeast and will show our higher PoPs in the south, but these will only be 40-50 percent.
A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level trough over the northern plains will pass across Kansas this evening.
218 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A northwest to northerly flow aloft will be over Colorado tonight with an upper level ridge to the west. Moisture is suspect however with primarily weak mid level subsidence behind an upper trough the as moved into the upper midwest. Another weak cold front is progged to push through Denver Saturday morning in the 12-15z window. Could see slightly cooler temperatures vs tda but thats about it. so will keep some pops in the high country. A strong upper level ridge over the great basin combined with a trough over the northern portions of the US will bring continued NW flow over the region.
Also, upper low over E Cntrl Sask will drop into valley tonight. then slow down becoming a stacked upper low by 00z across the southern valley. Given the developing upper low over near this region. and isolated severe hail given the relatively low freezing levels). Upper low slowly propagates east. Temperatures should be a bit warmer compared to Friday.
136 PM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 The coastal marine layer will persist with high pressure overhead into Saturday for fair skies inland and hot conditions.
Tonight Through Saturday Widespread dry conditions will continue as high pressure remains anchored to the desert southwest. High pressure will remain the influencing weather feature through Saturday, with mostly dry conditions persisting.
Expect less coverage of showers and storms this afternoon thanks to an upper level ridge over the area.
Tonight and Saturday, as the area of upper level low pressure over North Dakota and Minnesota continues to work east toward the Great Lakes region, upper level flow over this CWA becomes increasingly northerly with plenty of cold air aloft.
1057 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure builds over the Inland Northwest during the next several days.
Highs today are around 5-10 degrees cooler across the plains behind the morning fropa.
An upper low over Texas continues to feed Gulf moisture into the Southeast. Development is expected to increase this afternoon as we approach the low 80s.
A cold front looks to move into the region Saturday with northerly winds and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. an upper low remained across Central/Eastern Texas while a second upper low with an associated frontal boundary dropped east southeast into the Northern High Plains. Southerly upper level flow on the eastern side of the Texas upper low continued to stream moisture into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low in Texas is expected to begin to sag southward as it gets a push from the upper low over the Northern High Plains.
The highest coverage of showers/storms has been over southwestern portions of the forecast area where storms appear to have initiated along a differential heating boundary. In addition, PW values are the highest across the southwestern counties. This has leas to SBCAPE values of around 1000-2000 J/Kg but with the lack of a lifting mechanism and the ridge overhead shower coverage should remain around 20-50 %. The closed low across Eastern Texas will move southward into Mexico as a more robust upper level trough moves across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
A mid/upper level low over east TX is helping to maintain a generally southerly flow over the CWA. Additionally, we're keeping an eye on the potential for some vort maxes advecting out from this low, which could support some showers or thunderstorms tomorrow morning.
High pressure remains overhead resulting in light and variable winds at the surface, and abundant sunshine. Temperatures have been steadily warming into the 70s this morning, and expect highs to reach the lower 80s away from Lake Michigan. Beachler 325 AM CDT Weak high pressure over the region this morning will move slowly east today with light gradient expected to allow a healthy lake breeze to develop this afternoon. Cold front will move across the area Saturday night bringing an end to precip chances and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.
Already seeing showers and iso'd thunderstorms developing across north central South Dakota within the clear/dry slot of this current upper level low pressure system churning through the region. Low pressure will cross the E Dakotas today /currently stretching from SW SD through N Central SD and Central ND/ will slowly slide E and consolidate over N MN this evening. Most fcst solutions concur on the idea of a sizable break to the wet weather from around 16-19Z, before daytime heating and influence of the 500MB trough over E ND allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorms to develop once again over the E half of the forecast area. Kept the mention of a few stronger showers and thunderstorms in the HWO along near the exiting cold front.
118 PM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through Saturday with temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees above average.
Upper low continues to spin over central Texas with feature progged to settle into south Texas for the weekend as upper plains low digs south.
A cold front will move in from north to south and shift winds out of the north at 10 to 15kts late tonight and early Saturday morning.
A low level jet and northward moving warm front should produce thunderstorms tonight that will move eastward across the forecast area. A somewhat greater chance of severe storms may be Saturday, with the upper trough moving into northern WIsconsin and southerly winds bringing higher dewpoints.
A deep upper level trough will remain across the south central states today with a cutoff upper low in the base of the trough across Texas. Meanwhile, a southerly low level flow will continue as high pressure remains across the western Atlantic. Increasing deep layer layer moisture combined with disturbances rotating around the upper low will, along with the seabreeze will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.
Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures only forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s on Saturday.
MRMS data suggests little if any ice in these showers, as activity struggles to climb into the freezing level which is above 13 KFT based of LAPS data. Saturday airmass remains warm and muggy ahead of approaching upper level trough and surface cold front. However given the high freezing levels severe hail seems like a longer shot, but with strong low level lapse rates and increased shear a isolated severe wind gust is possible. Saturday night did keep the higher pops across the west given the cold front will be right on our doorstep.
An upper level ridge wl remain centered ovr the desert SW on Sat with northerly flow aloft ovr the forecast area, and some breezy northerly sfc winds ovr the far sern plains. Temps on Sat should be a little cooler.
A strong upper ridge will build into the area this weekend and provide warmer and dry weather.
622 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A weakening cold front will move slowly across the region today.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low near the Austin area. Models indicate an area of low pressure southeast of the upper low will be between San Antonio and Victoria overnight. Combined with modest upper level difluence to the east of the upper low sinking to the south. The upper low will be over the Coastal Bend Saturday afternoon and went with categorical POPs near the low.
NW flow aloft behind a departing trough has lead to strong nw winds today, with some places gusting over 40 mph. An upper ridge building into the Pacific NW today will build into Montana Saturday and provide sunny and warm conditions with lighter winds.
Cold front has moved through most of the area and is not low located over the southeast portion of our area. Temperatures will be cooler, and in close agreement. The nose of the low level jet will follow this plume of elevated instability east across the area.
130 PM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure will bring record warm temperatures to the region today and Saturday.
The first is across northwest Iowa in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow boundary from this mornings MCS. directional shear in the low levels is lacking a bit with surface winds from the southwest. A fairly strong cold pool aloft was settling into northeast South Dakota this afternoon with thunderstorms firing in the vicinity of the cold air advection aloft and the surface cold front/dry line. Cold air aloft west of eastern MN upper low, with ample low level moisture and some mid level moisture will support generally light showers Saturday, mainly east if the James River. Wind fields in the cool advection pattern will not support great coverage or much rain, so will bump up pops a little for the fairly shallow instability but leave them at chance, while going with the low qpf.
One trof digging in over the northern tier of the country. Models inconsistent with the onset of precip in the far SE with the energy shearing out of the low to the SE and along a developing frontal boundary.
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Scattered showers and any storms diminish this evening with the passage of a cold front. Saturday looks rain-free, and seasonably warm, with high pressure in control.
1122 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 The cold front is steadily moving south across Wyoming early this morning. Temps will certainly be cooler today in the post frontal environment, perhaps as much as 10F cooler across portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Saturday will be dry and continued cooler as high pressure builds into the forecast area both at the sfc and aloft.
With enhancement from an upper trough approaching the area, we should see likely to categorical rain chances.
Models indicate the center of the upper low, which is currently over the Texas Hill Country, will slowly shift south, during the next 24 hours. Given the slow movement of the upper low to the south, those PoPs look reasonable for tonight.
1049 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 The coastal marine layer will persist with high pressure overhead into Saturday for fair skies inland and hot conditions.
Some weak surface frontal passages may also occur, with the pesky upper level low across the srn plains of TX providing the moisture associated with the upper level pattern.
Warm dry high pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend.
As the upper low over Texas continues to spin, it has been sending bits of upper level energy over our region. I would expect that tomorrow's coverage will be more than today's as the upper low slowly migrates south and opens into a trough. I think the west will again be "cooler" in the lower to mid 80s whereas the east should reach the mid to upper 80s/possibly around 90.
Cold front has moved through most of the area and is not low located over the southeast portion of our area. Temperatures will be cooler, and in close agreement.
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over east TX while a belt of mid level westerlies for remaining off to the north of the time being. This will support a cold frontal passage Sat with additional chances for thunderstorms. A large upper level ridge over the western CONUS will shift east into the Plains with a warming trend late in the week with some areas possibly reaching 90 deg F by Thu. Convection will likely wane this evening, with another increase late tonight ahead of a cold front, which will push through Saturday morning.
/Saturday through Friday/ The large scale pattern can be split into two regimes through the period, initial effects from current Upper Mississippi Valley/Ontario trough and then the transition into fairly dry northwest flow and Rockies ridging. Models have changed little over the past few days suggesting unfocused weak convection in broad cyclone low level flow into Saturday afternoon with uncapped sub 1k j/kg MLCapes.
With more cloud cover, temperatures will a bit lower today, in the low to mid 70s far south to the upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Otherwise, will see precipitation chances increase with best chances during the day on Saturday as cold front moves through.
But low level convergence is expected to increase over the coastal plains overnight as the upper low sags south toward south Texas. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low near Austin with vorticity lobe rotating south-southeast through the Hill Country. The vertically stacked low is expected to drift south tonight and be south of San Antonio by 12z Saturday maintain the threat for locally heavy rainfall near and to the east of the low.
556 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms mainly south and east of Pittsburgh this evening.
Afternoon temperatures over the last few days have managed to climb into the low to mid 80s, and the area should see similar temperatures this afternoon despite a bit more cloud cover. Upper level clouds have already moved northward into the CWA due to a trough of low pressure spinning over Texas. Later this evening a front will approach the northeast corner of the CWA in response to a quick moving trough dropping down out Canada and into the Northern Plains.
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A cold front was moving into northeast NE at 19z, and will sweep across the area this evening. The upper low helping push the cold front is across the northern plains. Areas along and east of the Missouri River will be in the cool trough associated with that on Saturday afternoon, which could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late morning through mid afternoon Saturday.
A cold front will result in a wind shift from the north around 10-11Z at GAG/WWR, and then spread south through the other terminals during the day tomorrow. The lowest visbys tomorrow morning appear likely near SPS.
/issued 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016/ Upper low has meandered its way ewd into central TX over the last 24 hours and continues to have several areas of convection associated therewith.
A weak frontal boundary will move through the area stemming from a northern stream trough near the western Great Lakes. Rising heights from an amplifying upper ridge to the west will create large scale subsidence. Any coverage is expected to be isolated at best and favor the Rolling Plains farthest from the upper ridge. Models continue to strengthen the ridge to the west of the forecast area keeping northerly flow in place through the weekend.
Beyond midnight, should begin seeing some clearing as an upper ridge begins amplifying over the northern and Canadian rockies and the upper low pulls off into the Upper Great Lakes.
A ridge of high pressure will maintain very warm and dry conditions across inland areas through Saturday.
407 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure overhead will build to New England by Saturday.
These will continue to pivot around the low center, but should wane with nocturnal losses in instability.
An upper level trough will then develop over the region this weekend, bringing a period of wet and cooler weather. Weak high pressure ridge will bring slightly drier air into the region today, especially acrs the north. Temperatures a little cooler today with highs generally in the the lower 80s.
(ISSUED 649 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 ) Widely scattered SHRA continues to rotate north up into the state due to the upper level low across central TX. Ascent associated with the upper level low has kept widespread showers over the state during the overnight. the cutoff upper level low should retreat back to the south along the Texas coastline as another storm system moves across the northern Plains. This second system will help drive a a stronger cold front through the state late on Saturday.
Deep layer ridging over the central peninsula continues to put the kibosh on cumulus/convective development this afternoon. Drier air and slightly warmer temps aloft also keeping updrafts weak along the inland-moving east coast sea breeze. Atlantic ridge axis across central Florida will gradually shift southward through the weekend as trough aloft drives a weak cold front into the southeast United States.
Mostly clear skies continue across Northern California with an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Western US. Temperatures are running considerably warmer than yesterday, as the marine layer has nearly vanished along the coast.
Strong high pressure will bring very warm temperatures through the weekend with highs in the mid 80s to the mid 90s.
335 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Apart from a few passing mid and high level clouds, sunny and dry conditions will persist through the short term as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the western CONUS.
The drier air mass and the weak high pressure ridge over the area appears to be keeping things from developing across the state compared to the last two days. Water Vapor satellite loop shows upper level low spinning over central/eastern Texas. This upper low does not move very much over the next 24-36 hours but the main upper low over the Dakotas and Minnesota does. Northern stream energy moving east across the northern plains and western great lake states will be our next weather maker as upper trough digs across almost the entire eastern U. The developing trough begins to merge with weakening upper level low over TX Sat morning resulting in warm moist Southwesterly flow across GA. As this upper trough develops. Temps Sat be a bit cooler than today due to increased cloud cover and expected precipitation.
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms, continue around the upper low this afternoon. The wind shift associated with the cold front will impact the northwest zones around 12Z and shift into the I44 corridor around 18Z.
High pressure over the region will maintain very warm and dry weather conditions into Saturday.
1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Spring wakes up from its week-long hibernation today with increasing southerly flow bringing temperatures up into the lower 60s for most areas.
139 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High pressure builds in today.
348 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Light lake effect snow showers will slowly dissipate this afternoon and evening across the area as high pressure builds across the region. Friday will be quiet as high pressure briefly stays around.
327 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 An upper level short wave trough will continue east-southeast across Saskatchewan tonight and Manitoba early Friday before moving into the Minnesota Arrowhead late Friday. But an emanating cold front will drag southward across our area near or just shortly after daybreak Friday. RMcQueen Friday evening begins with a cold front stalling near I-20 as cool surface ridging slowly wanes through the night.
A cold front will slide southward near and just after daybreak Friday with moderately gusty northerly breezes expected, and drier air as well. /issued 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/ WNWRLY flow continues today across the region as an upper level ridge crosses the CWFA. A cold front is expected to approach the area Friday around sunrise. Cold front pushes south through our area early Friday. Reenforcement for the marginally cooler air mass doesn't arrive until later in the day as surface pressure falls deepen to our west and weak instability aloft works around the ridge shifting east.
High pressure will depart Central Indiana tonight. allowing a warm front to surge into the area. The warm front. High pressure is then expected to build across the western Great Lakes and midwest through the weekend.
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High pressure will continue moving east this afternoon with slightly warmer southwest winds this afternoon. Another low pressure system will approach late tonight and move across the region on Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is looking likely Friday morning before precipitation changes to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing.
330 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High pressure exits tonight.
654 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Quiet conditions across the region through tonight as high pressure dominates. Clouds will thicken and lower through the late overnight as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. A warm front will lift north toward the Michigan border Friday morning bringing precipitation back to southern MI. Dry air in the low levels will keep clouds elevated overnight and will hold off precipitation til Friday morning.
152 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Aviation High pressure will slide through the region today bringing fair weather and sunny skies. The quiet weather will continue into tonight as the high slips away to the southeast. The light snow will mix with a bit of freezing rain Friday morning as warmer air aloft rides over some residual cold air at the surface.
With the center of the high near the area, winds will likely go calm tonight under mostly clear skies. The official forecast went close to the cooler MOS guidance given the expected radiational cooling conditions.
There is a lot of dry air in the lower levels to overcome. Then the main precip associated with the lower level warm air advection and upper trough will arrive in southern WI shortly after that initial band. Top-down methodology would describe the precip type to be rain due to the increasing warm layer, but the surface temperature and boundary layer temperature would suggest a chance for freezing rain or maybe sleet. Clear skies should allow for cooling temperatures in southeast WI this evening, then a slight warming as the clouds and precip move in with the warm front.
Winds will remain light through the period, generally becoming southeast to south in direction as high pressure slowly shifts to the east of the region.
1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 The H85 thermal ridge is progged to expand eastward as a mid/upper ridge over the Rockies dampens and emerges over the Plains. rising heights/increasing thickness are progged as another mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the Rockies and over the Plains.
514 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Brisk and cold northwest flow pattern, with diminishing lake effect and orographic snow showers will be replaced by high pressure tonight into early Friday.
Surface wise, an extensive area of high pressure over the eastern United states, with a ridge reaching into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. A large area of high pressure over the eastern United States, Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula will settle southward and spread across the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will sag down the Florida peninsula before dissipating near south Florida as another area of high pressure bridges the aforementioned boundary.