Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Based on current observations, CHA appears to be in the warm sector as a warm front lifts north. Winds increase from 230-260 deg on Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front moves into the area Sunday night, showers become more likely late in the period. While there will be a low chance of VCTS along the cold front late in the period, probs are too low to include in the TAF at this time. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 52 58 38 56 / 20 100 60 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 51 55 34 53 / 20 100 70 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 73 49 55 33 53 / 20 100 50 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 49 54 29 52 / 10 100 70 0 20 TN.
1257 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A brief round of light rain will move in early this morning, followed by a push of warmer air that should bring highs into the 50s for many areas.
Warming trend will begin Sunday as a Pacific upper ridge builds inland. A weak warm front will spread clouds over northern areas Sunday with a slight chance of light snow ib the northern mountains.
Our region remains in dry northerly flow this evening as an upper trough deepens to our east over the Great Basin. This will result in increasing north to northeast winds in the hills overnight, with the end result being a moderate offshore wind event, with gusty winds primarily confined to the highest ridges and peaks where gusts up to 50 mph are likely late tonight into Sunday morning. Offshore flow will continue to bring dry air into our region, which will help maintain cool overnight temperatures, especially in wind-sheltered valleys where overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s, with some of the coldest locations likely to cool into the lower 30s by sunrise Sunday. Daytime temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be at least a few degrees warmer than today as an upper ridge offshore edges closer to the coast.
259 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The cold front has finally pushed through the forecast area. Behind the cold front, low clouds continue to push south into the forecast area this morning. Temperatures behind the cold front are expected to be cooler today and the cloud cover will inhibit warming a little. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight.
Many locations north and west received a half to two inches of rain last evening with a lifting warm front. This warm front will continue tracking northeast today/tonight as a tight SFC/LL low crosses the Great Lakes region. Movement of these lows will drag its associated cold front across the mid-state this evening, into the late night. ML/UL flow not especially good and along with cold front it will take some time for deep moisture/widespread rain to move out as well. Another weak front and upper trough will move through Thu night into Fri night but not more than a few showers at best are expected with these features at this point. Warm front continues to lift on off to the north.
The closed low which was over the northern panhandle/far southwest SD has opened up and will remain strongly positively tilted this morning. Much of the south should range in the lower 40s. With a west to southwest downsloping wind 5 to 15 mph, raised lows a few degrees to the lows 20s east and upper teens around 20 west.
Rain showers are expected this morning before tapering off this afternoon across Central Indiana as a cold front crosses Central Indiana.
(Today and tonight) Widespread dense fog early this morning is expected to dissipate as a cold front currently across northwest Oklahoma slides southeast bringing cooler/drier air into the area. There will be a small window for some of this activity around sunrise near the I-44 corridor, including central Oklahoma as the cold front swings through. However, higher chances will remain across southeast Oklahoma during the day as the front continues to move southeast and a weak upper trough translates northeast across the this area. Breezy north wind and cooler conditions tonight as drier air overspreads the area in the wake of the cold front.
Broad warm-air advection ahead of the low is leading to widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from eastern Missouri to Virginia, and steady snow is developing along the backside of the low across southern Minnesota and South Dakota. Regardless of how warm it gets, it won't be a good day for a stroll in the park with mist, drizzle, fog, and light rain showers pretty much continuing until a surface cold front swings through this evening.
A cold front is progressing southward across the Texas Panhandle, and will arrive at KCDS near 07Z tonight, followed by KPVW and KLBB at around 08Z and 09Z, respectively. By Sunday morning, the developing system, initially a positively tilted trough, will mature over the Mogollon Rim before starting to edge eastward. Winds will trend more westerly this evening followed by a cold front bringing winds around to the north in the period midnight through sunrise (N to S). This will also allow surface temperatures Sunday night to drop to near or below freezing for locations west of the Caprock escarpment. While locations to the east of the escarpment may drop to near freezing.
1009 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 70s. A warm front is beginning to push into Tennessee providing shower development south of I-40. The Plains low pressure system will move towards the Mid- South and its trailing cold front will move through the region and move south by Sunday night.
ridging is supporting a subsidence inversion based around 780 mb with quite dry air above. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the area through the overnight period. A ridge across Florida will maintain fresh east to east southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Ongoing low MVFR to IFR ceilings will also be the rule and the area of VFR conditions across SE OK is expected to deteriorate as sfc warm front continues to lift northward. Also expect the corridor of lower visibilities to persist overnight north of the advancing warm front. Cold front currently into NW OK will pass NE OK terminals by mid morning with improving flight levels. Most of this activity will remain light tonight, with additional scattered showers expected to develop across southeast Oklahoma later tonight as a warm front advances northward. A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma overnight tonight and advance southeastward throughout the day tomorrow.
Most of this activity will remain light tonight, with additional scattered showers expected to develop across southeast Oklahoma later tonight as a warm front advances northward. A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma overnight tonight and advance southeastward throughout the day tomorrow.
This first area of showers and thunderstorms will move to the northeast early this morning, but additional rain is expected to develop later this morning into this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area under the right entrance of an upper jet streak moving into the Great Lakes. The chance of rain will move south of the CWA by late this evening as the forcing exits the region and high pressure moves into the Midwest on Monday.
330 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The primary forecast concern is potential for light snow and some patchy freezing drizzle in our far northern counties into mid morning. Some of the higher resolution models continue to suggest potential for some light snow or patchy freezing drizzle in Knox and Cedar counties. Look for lows in the lower and mid 20s. Winds turn to the north or northwest Monday and that may bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air at least into our eastern and northern zones.
This was in response to a cold front that was beginning to make its way across Missouri early this morning. This cold front is expected to make slow but persistent progress to the southeast across the Ozarks through today. Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 50s to middle 60s with areas currently behind the front limited to the lower to middle 50s for todays highs. The upper level trough however, will make only limited progress, remaining across the plains into the start of the work week.
However, these conditions will not last long as a cold front, currently over the Panhandle and western Oklahoma will drop southward today. In fact, many locations across the Big Country are already around their forecast high temperature and will start to drop into the low to mid 50s after the front passes through around 9AM. But the fly in the ointment is that short-term models show the dryline mixing eastward ahead of the cold front as far east as Junction. Not only would this dry out the low- levels and squash out precip chances this afternoon west of Junction, but high temperatures may even top out several degrees warmer than forecast, especially along the I-10 corridor. Some weak impulses rotating around the base of this upper low may support showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight.
Dewpoints over northeast AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm front north of the area. Coverage of storms should remain limited until a cold front begins to make its move south during the afternoon, in response to midlevel height falls across the central plains. HRRR and other convection-allowing models (CAMs) depict a QLCS oriented southwest-northeast, moving southeast with the cold front during the late afternoon and evening. Peak flooding potential is expected during this period, aided by convective intensity and training potential of storms along and just behind the advancing cold front. 8 inches will prevail in advance of the cold front - exceeding the 99th percentile of late February precipitable water climatology. Regarding severe potential, several CAMs depict discrete storms forming in advance of the cold front, east of the MS River late afternoon and evening.
A sharp 500mb trough aloft will continue to drift south and eastward today over the Four Corners region. Some moisture remains trapped in this trough axis/post-frontal regime over the western slope, evident in satellite imagery as pockets of low and mid-level cloud cover. In the San Juan mountains and farther south, weak southerly upslope flow may result in a brief increase in cloud cover and perhaps an isolated snow shower or two as the tail end of the trough cuts off and drifts south. By Monday, ridging will develop over much of the southwestern CONUS.
A cold front will progress through the area today, sparking some new shower and storm development along and east of I-55 this afternoon. High temperatures look to range from the low 50s to middle 60s, with the warmest temperatures across east and southeast Illinois. Gusty northwest winds develop from west to east by early afternoon as the pressure quickly rises behind the cold front, resulting in a tightened pressure gradient. A quiet and cooler, yet seasonable, start to the new week is expected as Canadian high pressure slides southward.
Cooler air will also accompany this system along with a few snow showers in the White Mountains.
The other concern is, with the overall northward shift, drier air aloft will allow for some light freezing drizzle on the leading edge of the snow band as it shifts east early this morning. Will monitor extent of the freezing drizzle, though, as this may drive a need to extend additional areas on the southeast fringe of the advisory. Elsewhere, warming commences beneath a building upper ridge, so areas west of I-90 could climb into the mid 30s-lower 40s.
Precipitation will likely rapidly decrease in coverage & intensity over the next hour or two as the mid-level trough axis shifts eastward, so not really looking at much in the way of additional accumulations. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a Warning based on this thinking.
The closed low which was over the northern panhandle/far southwest SD has opened up and will remain strongly positively tilted this morning. Much of the south should range in the lower 40s. With a west to southwest downsloping wind 5 to 15 mph, raised lows a few degrees to the lows 20s east and upper teens around 20 west. Weak upper height rises across western NE on Monday as an upper ridge axis extends over the central and southern Rockies.
532 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The cold front has finally pushed through the forecast area. Behind the cold front, low clouds continue to push south into the forecast area this morning. Temperatures behind the cold front are expected to be cooler today and the cloud cover will inhibit warming a little. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight.
301 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The primary forecast concern is potential for light snow and some patchy freezing drizzle in our far northern counties into mid morning. Some of the higher resolution models continue to suggest potential for some light snow or patchy freezing drizzle in Knox and Cedar counties. Look for lows in the lower and mid 20s. Winds turn to the north or northwest Monday and that may bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air at least into our eastern and northern zones.
High pressure builds in today under the upper trough.
An area of low pressure, currently located over central Iowa, will track northeastward. The rest of the week will likely remain dry, thanks to large upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West states. High pressure will build in for Monday, resulting in abundant sunshine. Southerly return flow will build into the region as the aforementioned high pressure system departs, resulting in increased warm air advection. The general pattern for the rest of the week will continue to see either zonal flow aloft, or a ridging pattern to the west.
Tonight A cold front will be approaching the region and allowing for an increasing chance of showers and eventually a few thunderstorms.
539 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 As this morning's cold front exits stage right, a much drier regime will follow, likely continuing through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. However, with mostly sunny skies and dry soils, especially upstream of our area, I opted to hold on the higher side of guidance for highs (similar to the previous forecast). A weakening upper level low will cross the Southern Plains MON/TUE, spreading a swath of precipitation from WRN TX east across OK. We'll continue to monitor trends, though, as any northward trend in the track of the low could bring parts of our area in play for some light precip.
Sunday night offers some changes as a low pressure begins to move parallel to the coast. Models, ensemble members, and the national blend have been trending to have this low stay far enough off shore that it won't offer rain chances. The low will be close enough to provide more southerly winds. This will cause slightly cooler conditions along south-facing coasts for Monday afternoon, but the more interior areas will be unaffected.
As for the remainder of today deep layered ridging over the Gulf and Florida will maintain stable dry conditions with near record warmth and humid conditions continuing under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s early this morning will again quickly rise into the mid to upper 80s over interior locations during the afternoon with even a few areas approaching 90, with slightly cooler readings expected along the immediate coast with the afternoon sea breeze. High pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the central peninsula will maintain southeast to south winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Early this morning a cold front was moving through the CWA and extended from near Hiawatha to near Council Grove at 08Z. Aloft the mid level trough was moving across Nebraska and South Dakota and was lifting northeast.
Sfc ridging in the wake of departing cyclone is shunted ewd later this morning into the aftn as another clipper approaches the Dakotas. With relatively mild conditions across nwrn SD given a lack of snow cover, could see minimum RH values fall into the low 20s this aftn. As deep ridging builds over the Rockies and High Plains, steady warmup remains on tap for this week. From Tue thru Sat, have opted to rise temps well above the deterministic NBM, which appears to be an outlier--or at least on the low end of potential solutions--compared to the distribution.
Locally breezy north winds will occur across exposed ridges and coastal areas this morning, followed by weakening winds this afternoon, and then the development of gusty south winds tonight through much of Monday.
Highs today will be from the mid 40s to lower 50s from northwest to southeast, with the warmer readings on the lower terrain from Ashland to Medicine Lodge.
315 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Early this morning a cold front was moving through the CWA and extended from near Hiawatha to near Council Grove at 08Z. Aloft the mid level trough was moving across Nebraska and South Dakota and was lifting northeast.
This is largely indicative of the area of high pressure exerting its influence in our area. This area of high pressure will be the main focus today as temperatures will be several degrees warmer today, much closer to normal. The exception to this will be at the coast which will also be somewhat warmer than yesterday--and yet still near normal. Meanwhile, the southern portion of the disturbance will develop into a stronger low pressure system and will dive southeastward, before entering south central California.
Temperatures will level out in the low to mid 20s for the remainder of the day, with many locales having already achieved their high temperatures for the day. Aloft, the axis of a 700mb trough is over Sioux Falls, where another heavier band of precip appears to be taking shape. Amounts will generally be an inch or less, with western Wisconsin once again seeing the highest totals. Skies clear again for Monday afternoon, but temperatures will remain cool in the low 20s. Ridging will gradually work its way in through the week, allowing for highs to climb into the 40s and 50s through the week.
The primary forecast concern is potential for light snow and some patchy freezing drizzle in our far northern counties into mid morning. Some of the higher resolution models continue to suggest potential for some light snow or patchy freezing drizzle in Knox and Cedar counties. Look for lows in the lower and mid 20s. Winds turn to the north or northwest Monday and that may bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air at least into our eastern and northern zones.
Highs will be largely similar to yesterday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s over the plains, and in the 10s to 20s for the high country. Cool temperatures are also expected for much of the plains, with lows in the single digits to the low teens. The only place that will be on the "warmer" side will be the Foothills, where some light downslope winds will keep temperatures a little bit more mild. An upper level ridge will build over the area on Mon and then flatten out by Tue. This system will not have much cold air with it, so snow will be confined to the higher terrain, with rain at lower elevations.
This feature will drive a cold front south through the Northern Plains, and will bring a shot of some light snow to the region through this evening. High pressure quickly moves south over the region after 06Z, decreasing clouds and bringing lows ranging from 10-15 below to the northeast.
433 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging along the west coast shifts inland today and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week.
Still could be a little drizzle or a few showers as the low moves through later this morning into early afternoon. Temps continue to gradually warm most places, so becoming less and less concerned for any freezing rain/drizzle today. Temps will warm into the 40s today ahead of an approaching cold front.
529 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Widespread dense fog early this morning is expected to dissipate as a cold front currently across northwest Oklahoma slides southeast bringing cooler/drier air into the area. There will be a small window for some of this activity around sunrise near the I-44 corridor, including central Oklahoma as the cold front swings through. However, higher chances will remain across southeast Oklahoma during the day as the front continues to move southeast and a weak upper trough translates northeast across the this area. Breezy north wind and cooler conditions tonight as drier air overspreads the area in the wake of the cold front.
329 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 As the low clouds and isolated flurries continue to move southeast through the region, a very quiet and dry weather pattern approaches from the west. Today through Monday, a weak to moderate ridge of warmer high pressure will push away the colder Canadian low pressure trough that has recently dominated the region.
As of early this morning, a cold front was located from the northwestern tip of Missouri to slightly west of Topeka.
Although not as chilly as yesterday, today will remain on the cool side with highs mainly in the 40s to near 50, as high pressure off the CA coast keeps a light east flow and inversion conditions overhead.
Down along the gulf coast the usual pattern that we have been experiencing continues with morning temperatures in the lower 70s inland to upper 60s at the beaches. Interesting climate side note: At the lowest, temperatures this morning at all our climate sites ranged from 69 to 72. So far this morning, the lowest temp for KAEX was 72.
Otherwise, upper ridging will begin to build over the west coast today and bring a little warming to most areas. An upper low forms offshore of northern California on Monday. Models have been struggling with the evolution of this low and while there is better consensus now, upper lows are notoriously very difficult to predict.
324 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging along the west coast shifts inland today and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week.
502 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A warm front is lifting northward across east Kentucky early this morning, with the rain shield now pushed northward into northern and northeast Kentucky. Temperatures will surge into the 60s today with some places likely reaching the lower 70s. As the period starts, strong high pressure will be moving southeast toward us with a reinforcing push of colder and drier air.
327 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 As this morning's cold front exits stage right, a much drier regime will follow, likely continuing through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. However, with mostly sunny skies and dry soils, especially upstream of our area, I opted to hold on the higher side of guidance for highs (similar to the previous forecast). A weakening upper level low will cross the Southern Plains MON/TUE, spreading a swath of precipitation from WRN TX east across OK. We'll continue to monitor trends, though, as any northward trend in the track of the low could bring parts of our area in play for some light precip.
222 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. expect daytime highs noticeably cooler than yesterday. With an upper level ridge building eastward across the central Rockies, expect clear skies and a warming trend via gradual airmass modification.
There is a decent 700mb wave as well, with the main snow band expected to be just to the north of the low track, or somewhere along a Devils Lake to Park Rapids line. GEFS plumes for Grand Forks and Fargo are trending more to the lower side, or 0. Some of the high resolution run total precipitation amounts from the HRRR, NAM3, and WRF/ARW show the potential for 0.
538 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Monday before a cold front brings rain followed by cooler weather into midweek.