Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016/ EARLY THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING A QUICK PASSAGE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND AS OF 440 THIS MORNING WAS NEAR A HOPE ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY LOUISIANA. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRED OUT IN FRONT OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A QUICK TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HELPING NUDGE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES AN OPEN INTO A WAVE WITH OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPLITTING FROM A LEAD SHORT WAVE RETURNING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
156 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ASSURE ONE MORE MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK WEEK. MESO ANAL SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH JUST THE HINT OF SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING OVER NERN AREAS. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN TODAY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
338 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY MILD, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AS THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES STEADILY EASTWARD FRIDAY, WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AS A LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES, WE'RE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE NRN STREAM DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES. WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
A deepening upper low will continue to push eastward of the CWA today, which will send a surge of cold air over the local area.
THIS PACIFIC WAVE WILL CARVE OUT CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLIP DOWN FROM THE NORTH RIGHT BEHIND IT. THE PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO HUG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVERNIGHT. AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. AND COOLER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.
427 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO WESTERN AL. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS HAS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN AL.
330 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RELAX. TO THE WEST OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS.
613 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE HAS SURGED INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD LINGER IN THE RIDGES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT IS WHEN SKIES WILL TRULY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW BEYOND 60NM OFFSHORE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL MS AND NORTHWEST AL. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA BUT BROADEN AND CALM WINDS DOWN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS HAS INTRODUCED A GOOD DOSE OF VEERING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NEAR THE MS RIVER ATTM. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP A BIT MORE AND KEEP STRONG WINDS GOING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
06 REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH DEEP ERN TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WILL WE GET PRIOR TO ONSET OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CLOSED LOW ALOFT. BEFORE DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EWD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE OLD FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NWD OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAPID COLD FRONTAL SWEEP THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN QUARTER CWA BY 00 UTC WITH LEADING ISOLD-SCT TSRA EXITING CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD.
SLIGHT RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
IF IT IS IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC OBS. AS A SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE EVENING REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. BUFKIT AND OTHER THERMAL PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN IS LOW WITH MORE OF A RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EVENT AS THE COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THUS TOOK OUT MUCH OF THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND REMOVED FROM THE HWO.
302 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ASSURE ONE MORE MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK WEEK. MESO ANAL SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH JUST THE HINT OF SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING OVER NERN AREAS. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN TODAY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FORECAST FOCUS ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST RETURNING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
MEDIUM WATER VAPOR/RAP COMBO SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD AND OPENING UP. AT 500 MILLIBARS THERE WILL BE INCREASING DAVA AFTER 06Z WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING. SOME COOLER READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
EXPECT THE STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER REMAINS.
CAVEATS TO WATCH OUT FOR INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WELL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. /61/ BY FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE TWO NORTHERN ROWS OF COUNTIES.
The HRRR continues to show strengthening of the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening hours. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s.
GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE USHERING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGING FM THE LOWER 60S ACRS THE LAKES REGION TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL THIS EVENING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MEXICO WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS LA AND POINTS NORTH AND SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SE AND AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION IN THE PERIOD. MOIST LL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH PROFILES WARMER THAN -10C MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.
250 PM PDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS OBSERVED BY THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
307 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING WORKING IN FROM MN/NORTHWEST WI AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ADDING A BITE TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTH OF I-90 WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY BE SEEN AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW BEHIND THE CORE OF 20 TO 30KT 925MB WINDS OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A POCKET OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SPRINKLES. READINGS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 40S AND 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS THANKS TO STRONG MIXING THAT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO RIDGING ALOFT AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS/GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE LOWERING CIGS.
FROPA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
306 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR GARY INDIANA TO MONROE LOUISIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST THAN THE EAST. THE FAR NORTH WILL SEE SOME PCPN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA. WITH COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BLO AVERAGE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS BAND EXPECT TO GET A TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BUT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED EWD ACROSS OUR IDAHO ZONES FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND NOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE IDAHO SIDE FRIDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS.
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. FRIDAY OPENS WITH BREEZY SWLY GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND TODAY/S COOL HIGH PRESSURE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MEANWHILE WILL SHARPEN AHEAD OF A SPLITTING TROUGH EXITING THE NRN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY SAT NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN COUNTERPART DELIVERS A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT.
Warmer on Friday, with gusty south winds returning by afternoon. With full sunshine, will stay on the warm side of guidance and have afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
Low clouds will be slow to clear from west to east tonight and will likely not clear west of the low level ridge of axis which will be just west of the Mississippi River at 12Z.
COLD FRONT SURGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 40S OUT WEST TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. SO IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE RGV AND RANCHLANDS. SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO SE IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. DEWPOINTS RISE BACK TO THE LOW 60S.
Pre-frontal trof now moving into central MO will be the main focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms today. Once the front passes east of the region later today, high pressure will be quick to build in tonight and Friday.
This will bring concerns for agricultural interests across the area with respect to plants being susceptible to the freezing conditions overnight.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS ACTUALLY A 7 C H850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME COOLING WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT BUT A THERMAL REBOUND OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT NEAR THE LOW.
HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BACK FURTHER TO OUR WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA.
125 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST. COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS OUR FA AND SLOW DOWN.
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016/ THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO HILLSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED EWD OUR IDAHO ZONES FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND NOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE IDAHO SIDE FRIDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS.
DID HAVE A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD TURNING ANY DRIZZLE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. DID KEEP TEMPS COOLER WHERE HEAVY SNOW BAND HAD SET UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE WATER UNDERNEATH WAS FREEZING TO THE SURFACE MAKING ROADWAYS QUITE SLICK.
238 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 Much cooler and less windy today following a cold front that moved through last night. Enjoy it while it lasts as winds quickly turn back to the south tonight as another upper trough drops into the northern Rockies. Downsloping winds along with a mid level thermal ridge will lead to temperatures back to near 80 degrees.
HIGHEST DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND WERE OBSERVED AT TUSCALOOSA SOUTH TO DEMOPOLIS AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR CLANTON AND NEAR MONTGOMERY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CONTINUES PUSHING TO THE EAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS BAND EXPECT TO GET A TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BUT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
Recent shower development along the actual cold front near the Wabash River should struggle to survive as it moves into a worked over airmass. The combination of clouds and winds should keep temperatures from dropping down to the freezing mark and frost from forming in the morning.
258 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS.
COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BACK SIDE TROUGH ENERGY HANGING OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONGER LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE WAS ENOUGH REASONS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN). WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN GABRIELS. A SECONDARY WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL SEND NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT, AM EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE NORTH AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER IN THE SOUTH.
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. ISSUED 329 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER AND MOISTURE SPREADING N INTO MT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS MORE ABUNDANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER NEVADA WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST GFS PLACES THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 12Z. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF THE LOW AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS TRACK. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT ALIGN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WILL DELAY THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY A FEW HOURS AND WILL ALSO REDUCE THE EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS BY AN INCH OR TWO AT MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER.
Early this morning a deep upper low was located over NV and will slowly dig east-southeast into the four corners area Tonight. A downstream upper level ridge over the plains will move east to the mid and lower MS river valley Tonight. The western counties will only reach the lower to mid 60s with more cloud cover.
GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUSTIFICATION FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST HIGHS. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA.
358 PM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016 THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER A SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
609 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
522 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CO TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN PROVIDING. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.
311 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 High pressure over the eastern United States kept southeast winds over central IL today. Main moisture and cloud advection late tonight, with the low clouds reaching into the area late.
SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PSEUDO DRYLINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NWRN ZONES VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS WED EVENING.
Surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure centered over Lake Michigan with a light north/northeast wind across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Otherwise, for today, look for benign weather with seasonable temperatures as high pressure is the dominant weather maker. Plan on lows in the low 40s, a few sheltered spots may dip into the 38-40 range.
LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAIN AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/ BEAUTIFUL DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
247 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
300 PM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 An upper low over Eastern Nevada will continue to bring a few showers tonight and Wednesday. The low moves east by the end of the week with high pressure building in and lasting into the weekend.
Trended slightly cooler further E where less clouds will be seen.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER END OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. OTHER AREAS HAVE GONE TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AS WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE LOW 50S FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST WILL WANE AS IT FILLS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE INCREASE.
426 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR 135 W AND AN UPPER LOW IN UTAH. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EXTENDED THEM SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TOWARD DAYBREAK.