Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs again will reach the mid to upper 80s with the lake breeze keeping conditions slightly cooler lakeside. A cold front across the Canadian/U. An upper level disturbance across the Northern Rockies looks to trigger showers and thunderstorms across the plains, and also across Wisconsin closer to the cold front where a weak to modestly unstable atmosphere will exist. The cold front, aided by the frictionless lake, will move into the area Wednesday night.
1121 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will track from the Central Great Lakes to the Eastern Great Lakes today, bringing abundant sunshine, and summer's heat in the 80s.
As for temperatures, due to the expected increased cloud coverage, rain, and more easterly flow, maintained "cooler" temperatures today in the lower 90s to upper 80s across the east and along the coast, while farther west, temperatures should range in the upper 90s to near 100.
High pressure over the central Great Lakes will drift to the east.
A slow moving impulse will force a lee side trough east today across the region. Hot conds expected most places today with highs in the 90s, with cooler conds wed given easterly flow.
1010 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Models indicate shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections of the area beginning in the afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
915 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today through tonight.
Winds will become southeast and increase into the 10 to 15 mph range by late day as a trough of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies today. With dewpoints forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s and the clear skies and light winds expected the lows across western Kansas should range from 65 to near 70. A northwesterly flow will establish itself across the central Plains mid week as an upper level ridge axis begins to amplify over the western United States. The first of the more significant upper waves is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF to cross the central plains on Wednesday night as a warm front lifts northeast across western Kansas.
Have generally south to north POP gradient, with the highest POPs across southern CWA gradually decreasing to the north.
An upper level high pressure ridge is forecast to develop to the NW of Arizona later today and into Wednesday. This shifts the subtropical high pressure ridge into and unfavorable position for sustaining a northward push of deep subtropical moisture.
TFJ Synoptic setup: a large high pressure heat dome continue to be stationed over the western half of the conus with its center positioned over Nevada.
High temps today will be generally 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday, though high temps will be 4-6 degrees cooler in the Kittitas valley and the Gorge.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 74 93 74 / 40 30 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 74 93 74 / 40 30 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 92 70 / 50 40 40 40.
With West Texas remaining on the east side of an upper level ridge, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through much of this week. Mid level moisture has finally made it back to the region and will hang around with the center of the upper ridge well west of the area. A few short waves look to rotate around the upper ridge boosting convection chances this week although it is still uncertain if any day in particular will see better chances. Storms will generally shut down sometime early this weekend with the upper ridge repositioning itself to the east.
High pressure centered over IA was providing mostly clear skies and light winds across the region early this morning with temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. Persistence will be the rule as high pressure slowly migrates east over the region today and tonight under a subsident W-NW flow aloft.
The upper low pressure trough is now over the region with upper high pressure ridging to the west and east. Moisture levels remain high with surface dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, an a 00z KLzk sounding having a precip water value over 2 inches.
Luckily, humidity should mix out again today as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon.
With high pressure in place and no obvious upper disturbances headed our way, the weather will remain dry through at least tonight. Humidity increases by Wednesday as surface dewpoints creep back into the lower 70s.
Central Alabama remains between two upper ridges, one centered near the 4 corners region and the other just off the Atlantic seaboard. The relative weakness between the ridges will allow for scattered convection during the afternoon/evening although we are close enough to the eastern ridge to limit convection in some of the eastern counties today and tomorrow. The Atlantic ridge slowly breaks down late week with the upper level trough shifting eastward and closer to the forecast area. This will give at least scattered convection with the highest POPs across the N/NW portions of Central Alabama, which will be closer to the approaching upper trough.
Rain chances are greatest at SAT/SSF which is in closer proximity to outflow boundaries left behind by yesterday's convection and the ongoing complex of storms along the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast associated with the broad inverted trough. The broad mid and upper level low centered across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will elongate westward today, with another spoke of energy wrapping into portions of South Texas. Tonight and Wednesday the low opens with the main energy pivoting into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
The additional cloud cover and possible showers and thunderstorms will result in slightly cooler temperatures than what we have seen over the last several days. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
711 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today: Strong and persistent deep layered ridging will continue across the forecast area. Tonight: Quiet weather will persist as mid level ridging and the surface synoptic pattern remain stagnant. Strong mid/upper level ridging directly over the area will continue into the second half of the workweek. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure dominates locally with troughing well inland.
Additional showers and storms will develop across North Dakota during the day ahead of a short wave trough which is currently located over western North Dakota. This short wave trough will move through northwest Wisconsin this evening and northeast Wisconsin during the overnight.
High pressure will move across the area today with light winds throughout the day. Temperatures at H850 will warm by late afternoon with the warmer readings west and northwest.
720 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Aviation Warm and sunny weather is expected for Southwest Michigan today thanks to a large high pressure system that will cross the area during the daytime hours. A Canadian cold front will move south through Lower Michigan Wednesday bringing the chance for thunderstorms.
Northwest Montana has above normal moisture, which will add to the thunderstorm potential, so northwest Montana will have the highest chances for thunderstorms.
A warming trend remains on track for the inland areas beginning today and persisting through late week as high pressure builds in from the Desert Southwest. A cooling trend is anticipated for the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Building high pressure is compressing the marine layer this morning as indicated by the Fort Ord profiler which is showing a marine layer depth of just under 1000 feet.
High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures.
This subsident air was occurring in confluent zone between TUTT axis passing into the Gulf and mid/upper level anticyclone centered to our north. 5C warmer than yesterday. The HRRR model has been showing little coverage for the coastal counties and the highest coverage vicinity Lake county where the east/west boundary collision occurs towards evening. Bermuda Ridge axis between the I-4 Corridor and Lake-Okeechobee was producing light southwest winds in the north and light southeast winds in the south.
The chance of showers and storms will continue today, mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL, south of STL near a weakening cold front and where low-mid level moisture and instability will be maximized.
An upper level ridge with warm temperatures and weak winds aloft will be over the state through today, bringing another hot day to the plains and a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure area over Wyoming will keep a moist southerly flow across the northeast Colorado plains. The low level instability axis is forecast to be in place along the eastern Colorado border through the afternoon, making it prudent to mention up to scattered pops on the plains through the late afternoon and evening. The upper level ridge will move over the SE Great Basin on Wednesday bringing increased NW flow over the region through the remainder of the week. Some frontal boundaries could make it into the foothills and help spread storms westward but overall coverage over the higher terrain will be limited.
721 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today through tonight.
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
A very weak low pressure system over the area will move into eastern Washington late today or early this evening.
(Issued 450 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016) Water vapor satellite data confirms that a weak 500-mb inverted trough currently across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to shift slowly westward this morning. A weak vorticity max pivoting nwwd across the Gulf coast is likely providing the mid-level ascent necessary for the generation of isolated shower activity around the region this morning -- as the northern extent of this feature continues to graze our region -- but the impact of this vort max is expected to diminish later this morning, as it advances into the lower Miss valley and anticyclonic flow strengthens aloft. At the surface, a weak/diffuse cold front remains nearly stationary this morning near the Ohio river, and this boundary is expected to move little -- if at all -- today and tonight.
The silver lining in all of this is that temps will be relatively cooler and some areas will pick up rainfall, some locally heavy.
The threat for locally heavy downpours could reach most of the area by this evening before waning later tonight, although lift associated with the trough should help to maintain at least isolated showers through the night. 5 inches by Wednesday over much of the forecast area and the coverage of mostly diurnal shower/thunderstorm age should be rather high given lift and moisture convergence associated with the trough.
641 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 It will be another warm and humid day across the Northland, with highs in the lower 80s, despite a subtle cold front which will slowly move through the Northland today and tonight as high pressure in Canada noses into the Northern Plains and northern Minnesota. Wednesday looks a little cooler and cloudier, with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Cool easterly flow will develop from Lake Superior, and the diffuse cold front will likely shift south of the forecast area, or near the far southern forecast area. Northwest flow aloft will help push the frontal boundary further south Wednesday night as high pressure over Manitoba/northwest Ontario pushes further south.
High pressure is then expected to build across the area in the wake of the trough late this afternoon into tonight.
Some drier air was located over southern Nebraska into northern Kansas with readings in the lower 60s to mid 60s. The low level jet will be weak with speeds of 20 to 30 kts across western Kansas and western Nebraska. , with a mid-level trough developing over the Great Lakes region by Wednesday night.
With an attendant trough hanging across northern Iowa by morning. temperatures are likely to remain up and should hold above freezing. With the evolution of the low and areas of better sfc convergence moving across the region overnight.
With the somewhat drier air in place, lows Tuesday night will be a bit cooler, in the 50s.
True warm front with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s is lifting through southern Missouri at this time and is expected to continue to move north to the I-70 corridor this evening.
For Tuesday winds remain from the west and southwest around 10 mph through the morning then shift to the begin to veer to the northwest by noon then variable (north/northeast across the east with south and southwest across the west and south) as a cold front starts to back into the area.
MVFR and VFR conditions prevail for terminals across Arkansas as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
630 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A southerly flow will continue through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. The cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Warm front now appears to be north of the mid state. Despite the low dew point spreads, not expecting any fog as the llj cranks up.
631 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A southerly flow will continue through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. The cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
612 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2017 Updated this evening forecast to all the High Wind Warning to expire across northern Carbon and Albany counties. so will leave the High Wind Warning as is for Converse county southward to the central and southern Laramie Range. Expect this snow to become more widespread in the mountains and the lower valleys after midnight.
Sfc analysis shows high pressure over the northern Gulf and low pressure over the western high plains. The warm dew points moving over slightly cooler shelf waters will also be somewhat favorable for sea fog but warming Gulf waters coupled with a S-SW sfc wind making sea fog less of a threat. Warm 850 temps and dry air will translate into very warm sfc temperatures with highs warming into the lower and possibly mid 80s on Tuesday.
/issued 410 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/ Temperatures have begun to moderate over the area as an upper ridge passed over the area. Models show a weaker upper trough racing east across the mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday.
The cloud cover has prevented temperatures from reaching the lower to middle 70s. The surface warm front bisected the CWA from northwest to southeast across central and south central MO, extending westward back to the area of low pressure over western KS. A dry line extended south out of the low into western OK and into west TX. Canadian high pressure will drop southeast into the forecast area and we should see temperatures still above normal for Wednesdays highs, but about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today/Tuesday. night we should see lows dipping back into the low to mid 20s.
/BB/ Abnormally warm temperatures have once again materialized over the area and spread further north where the warm front moved through this morning.
Short term models had a good handle on the low clouds/vsbys and conditions improved as expected by noon. The remainder of the night is looking quiet weatherwise with mild overnight lows around the freezing mark. Another wave translating across the upper midwest region will bring a cold front into our area on Tuesday. Tuesday will see quite the temp gradient across our region with 30s in our northern zones where cold air advection and clouds will hold down temps, to much warmer 50s to low 60s in north central Kansas.
So, will introduce the mention of patchy freezing fog into the forecast, which would cover the prospects of very light freezing drizzle if formed. Highs in the upper 20s are likely across our northern border, but as the air encounters the higher terrain of sw Neb the baroclinic zone may hang up for a bit. The near term solutions are struggling with temperatures south and southwest of I80, some cooler and some warmer. The Arctic high pressure will provide for an area of weak upslope Tuesday afternoon, which at the very least will allow for a greater cloud coverage, if not some light qpf.
Meanwhile, low pressure will move from the north central US to the northern Great Lakes Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the Mississippi Valley.
Min temps across the Brush Country may be warmer than forecast if cirrus fails to thin later tonight.
525 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Low stratus has been slowly sinking south across northern SD today on the north side of a west-east warm front stretching across southern SD. For much of the night, it looks like there will be enough dry air between 800-650mb to inhibit any ice introduction from aloft as the lower cloud temps stay in the -8 to -10C range. In most locations, there should be too much of an issue with the freezing drizzle, but areas along the eastern upslope of the Coteau (where high resolution models are indicating the enhanced low level omega from the upslope flow) will likely see a few hundredths of ice accumulation. Finally for tonight, there is the potential for some fog/freezing fog to the west of the Missouri tonight.
did bring them down a bit lower at KARA where some sea fog is progged to spread inland in some of the high res models. However, the higher winds may inhibit the fog getting too dense.
Satellite and observation trends show the warm front centered west to southeast just south of the I 70 corridor. Further north of the warm front towards north central Kansas, the fog thickness has remained with dewpoint and temp depressions near 0. This has kept highs cooler in the upper 40s, while middle to upper 50s are observed elsewhere. As the upper trough lifts eastward overnight, residual low level moisture on the backside of the departing low may linger the low stratus and patchy fog through sunrise Tuesday. RH values at peak mixing down to the lower 30 percentile.
325 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2017 Weak upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with a low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest. Further south, low level moisture combined with a lack of mid level cloudiness may result in areas of low stratus and some freezing fog across the South Dakota plains. Cold air will continue to push into the region, as arctic high pressure slides into southern Alberta.
711 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warm front tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
628 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A warm front is located across N GA and N AL, which is expected to move northward through the evening.
410 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Temperatures have begun to moderate over the area as an upper ridge passed over the area. Models show a weaker upper trough racing east across the mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday.
Warm front progged to move north into the Southern Valley later tonight, but it's taking its time. Current belief is that warm front will eventually make its way northward into the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 65 55 68 / 10 70 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 65 54 66 / 20 70 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 49 64 54 64 / 20 70 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 67 49 62 / 30 60 70 50.
The low-level inversion is forecast to hold tough in most areas, which should keep surface gusts mainly under 35 mph overnight. A surface cold front is then forecast to move east across the Lower Ohio Valley in the afternoon. Any lingering convection in western Kentucky early Tuesday evening will end as the cold front passes to our east.
with the global models suggesting isolated development after 03z while some of the higher-res solutions show the strongest development to the east of our forecast area.
Models indicated some dry air at mid levels and it looks as if ice crystals will not be present to seed the low levels at most locations. This will result in a layer of moist, subfreezing air, where freezing drizzle/rain is expected to develop. It is possible that temperatures this afternoon will not cool fast enough for freezing precipitation, and it could take longer to develop. Warmer air moving into eastern and parts of central Wisconsin should change any freezing precipitation to liquid by midday on Tuesday. Tuesday Night Through Monday The early week system will be exiting the region early Tuesday evening, with any lingering light snow or freezing rain tapering off by 03z/Wed. Of possible greater concern will be the potential for a flash freeze in some areas, with any wet roads freezing as temperatures drop below freezing.
pushing east of the Lower MS Valley by late aftn. Mid lvl thermal profile increasingly unstable upstream with an H70 thermal trof over the NE GOMex dropping temps as low as 2C. Hi pres ridge over N FL will push into the Atlc overnight and merge with the Bermuda Ridge axis east of the Bahama Bank by daybreak.
Any sct convection should be E of the area terminals after 15Z Tuesday, with dry air entraining E beneath the trough quickly eroding any MVFR cigs by midday. This system will help nudge a dry line followed by a weak cold front into the area. this boundary will dissipate and await another in a series of disturbances moving through the base of a broad trough of low pressure across the central and eastern sections of the country.
514 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Surface meso low pressure centered just to the south of Sioux Falls associated with a synoptic low across western Kansas. Northwesterly flow behind this low will gradually spread across the area tonight. May see stratus become deep enough that there may be a little freezing drizzle across southwest Minnesota, but not much in the way of lift in the saturated layer. In addition, winds increase out of the northwest attempting to dry out the layer, so only left slight chance of freezing drizzle in Southwest Minnesota mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge.
930 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A southerly flow will continue through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. The cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Just a few showers expected over northwest zones this evening, but increasing lift with approaching 500 mb trough will promote development of numerous showers and thunderstorms across western zones in the 08z-12z timeframe. This activity will increase in coverage along and west of I-65 Tuesday morning then shift eastward across the forecast area into the afternoon as upper trough axis pushes eastward, with near 100 pops warranted. However, cold front will be located well to our north and west until late Tuesday night, and low level cloud cover will likely inhibit surface heating in the wake of the morning thunderstorms, so there is no apparent focus near us for renewed storm development.
This is ahead of an upper trough currently over Central Montana. Most of the snow will move to the east late tonight as the trough moves through Eastern Montana.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest IR imagery overlaid with available model streamline analysis as of 800 pm, depicts a zonal/broadly cyclonic middle and upper flow pattern across the southern CONUS with generalized troughing more evident across the Southern Plains and Western Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the 00Z sounding illustrated mostly fresh east winds from off the surface up to only about 900 mb, and moisture was limited in the lower to mid troposphere with total columnar PWAT at 1. Therefore an update was already performed around 700 pm to remove higher rain chances over the lower keys, which were 50%, down to isolated or 20% for all of the Keys and surrounding waters overnight. As the ridge begins to break down towards morning on Tuesday, local winds will begin to come down.