Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY INCREASING CIGS AOA 9KFT AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERTOP EXISTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. PERHAPS AS SOME FORM OF LAKE BREEZE/TROUGH INTERACTION. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW. ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN STRETCHED UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. 588DM RIDGE AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY. IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE THAN TODAY HOWEVER WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THAT COMBINED WITH COLD POOL OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES TO 8-8. MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND KEEPING SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
1116 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BLOCK THE LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA FROM ADVANCING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW WILL DISSOLVE INTO GENERAL TROUGHY FLOW BY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR A PRETTY MAJOR DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH.
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB.
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT COOLER TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE SAME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL GA WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST. 31 /ISSUED 317 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ CWFA STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
440 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD TAKE CONTROL SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERTOP EXISTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. PERHAPS AS SOME FORM OF LAKE BREEZE/TROUGH INTERACTION. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW. ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN STRETCHED UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. 588DM RIDGE AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY. IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS.
455 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WAS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
The upper level ridge begins to slide its way westward across the region after tonight and through the weekend.
345 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HELPS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
316 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY FOG AS TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CONVERGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S RANGE.
Hot/humid weather will develop over the weekend as a upper ridge amplifies a bit keeping better chances for tstms north of the area.
1145 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LYING NORTH OF PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD TODAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES.
There is a significant flood risk across portions of southern Missouri generally along the Highway 60 corridor where storms are expected to train through the early morning hours. A surface warm front will lift north across the area today as the upper level ridge begins to expand northward. The upper level ridge will become a more dominant factor this weekend as it expands northward a bit and retrogrades to the west.
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
159 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND AGAIN FAIRLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.
ITS UNUSUAL THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOMENTUM AND ENERGY IN THE WEST COAST TROF HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONTROL THE FLOW PATTERN OVER AZ IN MID JULY. THIS HAS PREVENTED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SEASONALLY BULGING TO AZ THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA PROVIDING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. MID TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER AREA OF TX/OK WHILE TROUGHING BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MINOR OUT AND LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. LEAVING OUR AREA IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
SO FAR TODAY, TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED THE 100-105F RANGE IN SOME AREAS.
353 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) Dry and warm conditions continue, as an upper ridge building in from the east, brings increasingly subsident conditions. Lee trough will be slightly weaker, with south winds in the 10 to 15 mph.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DISSIPATE.
CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AND THE NEXT WX SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER LOUISIANA SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
AND DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY.
Only isolated thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon as high pressure and dry mid-level air spreads over the region.
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST. NOCTURNAL STRATUS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY.
301 AM PDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE LOW HAS BEGUN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN NEVADA-CALIFORNIA BORDER BY 18Z /1100 PDT/ THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT WITH A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA TO MARSHALLTOWN IOWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
As the Low starts to spread east thunderstorms will likely develop and spread northeast well head of the upper level low Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger deep layer wind shear will be well west of the area Saturday afternoon and evening closer to the upper level low, which will limit a widespread severe risk, but given the increase instability a few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening with hail to the size of quarters the main risk.
An upper level ridge will over the eastern Ohio Valley will hold sway today as a deep trough will persist over the western US along with a closed upper low over the SW Atlantic. The upper ridge will not be as strong as we've seen in the past few days as upper level heights will start to fall a bit out to our west. For Saturday, the ridging will continue to break down as upper level heights will continue to fall out to our west.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE TN VALLEY TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ALL UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLR SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
WITH A RETURN OF THE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED AS WELL.
Highs today will be very dependent on how fast the precipitation develops and moves across the area but it should be somewhat cooler today generally speaking due to increased cloud cover and precipitation.
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE FA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. WINDS/CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND COOL AIRMASS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING. AND A S/W TROF AND JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN WI. AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO DEVELOPING WEST WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK AFFECTS THE REGION. ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. COOLER AIR AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CAUSE TONIGHT'S LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS.
IN TANDEM WITH THIS JET CORE LIES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/ENHANCED CYCLONIC CURVATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
228 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD OVER WRN WI. THREAT INCREASES DURING THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN CWA.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THE HIGHER SPOTS. DUE TO A NIGHT TIME INVERSION SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS A TOUCH WARMER THAN IN THE VALLEYS.
341 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE SHOWERS THAT FELL YESTERDAY ARE ALSO MOVING EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER AND DRIER - TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MN. THE CLEARING CLOUD TREND AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL SIT THE STAGE FOR A COOLER DAY AND A CHILLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND PASS OVER THE ROCKIES BEFORE SLOWLY MAKING ITS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUN-TUE.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE LOWER 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING TO LOSE THE HIGH CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING.
31 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING US DRY AND THAT HAS BEEN HOLDING TS ANA TO OUR EAST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUTS THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
/ISSUED 516 AM CDT Fri May 8 2015/ An upper level trough is centered over southern California with southwest flow aloft over the CWA. The previously mentioned upper trough will begin moving over the region on Saturday with thunderstorms possible across the very far eastern CWA. The upper trough will mainly move to the north of the area with the base passing over the CWA on Saturday. High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday afternoon as the higher winds from the base of the trough mix downward.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SOUTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 330 AM.
652 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO IDAHO.
THE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT ISN'T LOOK IDEAL EITHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT LESS CAPE. THE HIGHEST SIG TOR PARAMETER IS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH.
252 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA AS OF 3 AM MDT. OUR AREA IS IN THE TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING. BUT OUR UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO COLORADO BY THE END OF TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE N AND NW BOTH DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO OUR S AND SE ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW PROVIDES A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE 10 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ABOUT 170 MI SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH, SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AL. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (BUT FOR THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANA), WITH VERY DRY, SINKING AIR ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DOES NOT HAVE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES TIME TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE CLOUDS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO EVACUATE BY MID-MORNING.
AS WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXERTING INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROF. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO UNDERCUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIKELY WE WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AT THIS POINT BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE.
The closed low pressure system will continue to swing through the southern California into Colorado today through Saturday. The path of this low will cause some moisture to become wrapped up into portions of the Northern Rockies.
BOTH A FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF IN THE SW WILL SET UP A RATHER WET WEEKEND.
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SW OK NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONT (WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN). THE NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEAK WARM FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
SATURATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 10 AM MAINLY SOUTH OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY.
AREAS OF FGEN ARE VARIOUS LEVELS FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FLAG ISLAND TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER FIFTIES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO 60 TO 65 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WILL COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE SATURDAY TO ALLOW INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND TO REACH THE LOW 60S. BUT AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 50S.
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LOSING ITS EASTWARD MOMENTUM AND WASHING OUT TONIGHT. EXPECTING MINS TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
643 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND STALL OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCE FOR THE TERMINAL TO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT STRUGGLES TO PUSH EAST. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LOSING ITS EASTWARD MOMENTUM AND WASHING OUT TONIGHT. EXPECTING MINS TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE DIRECTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS CAUSE SUPRESSION AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF IS RIDGED ALONG A SE TO NW ORIENTATION. THIS NW RIDGED LOBE IS DIRECTLY OVER SE LA AND COASTAL MS. NORMALLY HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONGEST AND MOST SUPPRESSIVE ALONG ITS RIDGE AXIS AND IS WHERE THE STRONGER INVERSIONS ARE LOCATED ALONG WITH WARMEST TEMPS ETC. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR OUR AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SW PARISHES/COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE THE LARGEST POP NUMBERS WHERE THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRYING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER AND INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS WESTERN ARIZONA.
AN AFTERNOON ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES IN THE LOW 80S AND PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE EAST BEHIND THE SEABREEZE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
THEN MOVING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE. AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NE KS SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH TROUGHING INCREASING ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION AND SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA MEANDER ABOUT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE TWO WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.