Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We are already starting to see an increase in clouds in NW Alabama ahead of a frontal system over the Midwest and an upper low that is spinning in the Gulf, just south of LA. Deep mixing was in progress again with temps heating into the lower 90s at this hour with a few locations experiencing wind gusts over 20mph.
955 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Upper level low was located over northwest MN. Upper low forecast to open up. Water vapor loop indicated one short wave was rotating around the upper low and was located over north central MN. Precipitation was decreasing in area and intensity with loss of heating and upper low moving out. Water vapor imagery shows another wave moving toward southeast ND, rotating around the parent upper low over east central ND. On the negative side, 0-6km shear is weak, with the higher values moving into eastern MN.
1048 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure will build down into the Carolinas over the weekend as Tropical Storm Julia continues to meander off the Carolina coast.
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Satellite and observations show that the low clouds from this morning have moved to the southeast. Surface analysis has the cold front to the east of the forecast area and winds are from the northwest this afternoon.
Elsewhere, just high cirrus attm but low clouds should expand and affect all sites by daybreak as Gulf moisture increases ahead of a cold front that will approach our region on Saturday. Cu field will set up once this low level moisture lifts during late morning through the afternoon hours with isolated convection developing once again. Given the weakening forcing S of the trough. Have also adjusted sky conditions to account for the extensive AC/cirrus associated with a weak upper low/trough along the S LA coast. The H850 trough is progged to linger over the Ern zones Saturday and will focus widely sct convection by afternoon over these areas.
Ridge is building in from the west now with clearing skies across the cwa. A mixed westerly wind will spread across the lower elevations on Saturday. The upper level low in the Dakotas is keeping gusty northwest winds in place in eastern Montana. The low is slowly shifting eastward. as upper level high pressure builds over the region. Eastward movement of the low will allow winds in the east to taper off. the exiting low and building ridge will will allow for improved mixing in the west. Gusty westerly winds will spread across the region Saturday as the low continues to shift east. and ridging takes control of the region.
749 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely at times over the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Ridging is expected to move east of the area this evening as an upper trough and associated surface cold front advances out of the Midwest.
525 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY, with lee trof stretching from central MT to southwest WY. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the plains with southwest flow across the Rockies, ahead of upper low remaining nearly stationary along the pacific nw coast. Chances for thunderstorms will gradually increase from west to east across the area over the next couple of days as upper low begins to move east across the pacific nw. Southwesterly flow aloft will spread east across the area behind exiting ridge, with embedded disturbances crossing the northern Rockies and northern high plains. More sun and some warmer air aloft will result in highs in the 80s across the plains, warmest over northeast WY, with 70s over the higher Black Hills.
Region is set to remain between weakening/shrinking ridge to the west and upper trof to the east, which should continue to result in isolated to scattered convection with the best rain chances residing over parts of East and South Central LA. Divergence in model solutions increases late week as this trof is progged to retrograde WWD with the expansion of a SE CONUS ridge and the approach of a mid-latitude trof, with the ECMWF depicting a more coherent trof reaching all the way into TX versus the GFS shearing it apart over the Central Gulf Coast.
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a confluent NW flow aloft into the upr Great Lks btwn deep upr trof centered over Quebec and an upr rdg axis stretching fm the Plains into Alberta. Expect the lowest min temps falling into the 40s over the interior E, where winds wl be lightest closer to the core of the driest air/pwat near 0.
1249 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will extend across the region for the early part of the week. High pressure centered over the upper Mississippi Valley will continue to extend southeast across the region. High pressure will persist through Monday keeping relatively lower dew points across the region.
Most locations will remain dry, aside from some spotty drizzle along the coast and perhaps a brief light shower or two in the high mountains of Trinity County. In general, the upper level flow pattern across the West Coast will be characterized by a persistent trough that will linger across the area through the middle of the week. This trough/cutoff low is currently located near Vancouver island and is very slowly creeping towards the southeast.
Highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday with airmass modification slowly warming the atmosphere. Lows to also be slightly warmer than this morning. An active weather pattern mid-week with a series of chances for showers and storms, then generally cooler late week into the weekend.
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A pressure trough will remain near the forecast area through much of the week. Main surface cold front will be moving into the central Appalachians to start off the day. Combine this with the surface convergence along a lee-trough ahead of the cold front, and expect scattered to numerous showers to develop during the afternoon hours. Moderate instability and possible short wave troughs lifting northwest across the area through the day supports likely pops by the afternoon. Upper level trough will remain situated across the Southeastern States for much of the period.
This due in part to less and less influence of the upper level ridging across our region. Latest progs and watervapor imagery showing that the upper ridge has shifted further south and west and now was centered across S TX. A weak back door cold front and remnant outflow boundaries should provide a focus scattered convection after 07/15z.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016/ The upper level ridge will continue to largely control the weather this week but a front looks probable by the weekend. Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days across much of North and Central Texas with highs from 98-104 degrees and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in most places, but in the low 80s in the urban areas of the DFW Metroplex.
a weak area of low pressure continues along the gulf coast and into Northern Florida. CAPE values look to be maximized in roughly this same area from CSG to to ATL and Blue ridge and points northward. Deese The broad low pressure system centered just west of the CWA should stagnate through the vast majority of the fcst period allowing for an abnormally moist and tropical airmass with PWATs in 2.
937 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes Region this morning. Broad troughing is in place across the Great Lakes and through new England, with ridging through the central U.
Slightly drier air, associated with high pressure over the Great Lakes, will seep into Mid Tn, resulting in lower rain chances and more tolerable humidity levels, mainly for the northwest half of our area.
Upper level ridge remains evident on water vapor across most of Texas. For high temperatures today, went with the recent trend of cooler temperatures across the Oklahoma Panhandle where more cloud cover is expected.
Highs will be coolest in the south with highs in the lower 70s, while highs may reach 80 in the far north. After highs in the 70s for Sunday, overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. The upper level ridge axis expands up the Miss rvr valley Monday with southwest flow across the high plains. With the warmer temps and a weak disturbance riding the sw flow, some late day instability develops and could see some isolated storms across the NW zones.
Not much dry air above the lower level cloudiness to help mix it out.
Have highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. South winds picking up tonight as a trough of low pressure develops along the ND/MT border will keep the boundary layer mixed.
As we move into the work week, all things hinge on the evolution of the weak area of low pressure of the coast of Florida in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
1222 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A pressure trough will remain near the forecast area through much of the week. The pressure trough and heating should help support showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. We forecasted chance pops with the highest values during the late afternoon into the evening because of heating. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance based on the recent bias. Moderate instability and possible short wave troughs lifting northwest across the area through the day supports likely pops by the afternoon. Upper level trough will remain situated across the Southeastern States for much of the period. A pressure trough will help support showers and thunderstorms especially near the time of maximum heating. A pressure trough will remain near the area with high moisture during much of the outlook period.
A large area of high pressure over the upper midwest will slide across the Great Lakes early this week and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.
A weak high pressure ridge apparently is nearly atop or just north of the Florida Keys, and positioned a little farther southward than what we were predicting yesterday; hence, the lighter winds.
1216 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather until humidity and rain chances return by mid week.
Have updated the forecast for more clouds today and cooler temperatures by about 3F south of I-90. Quiet northwest flow continues over region with fairly stagnant pattern - closed low off Washington coast and mean upper trough across far northeastern U. Continued idea of far cooler in bogs of central Wisconsin compared to most areas.
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Quiet northwest flow continues over region with fairly stagnant pattern - closed low off Washington coast and mean upper trough across far northeastern U. Continued idea of far cooler in bogs of central Wisconsin compared to most areas.
Winds should follow diurnal direction trends with the higher speeds over 12 knots confined mainly between 17z and 06z. Synoptic pattern over the US CONUS features a broad mid to upper level ridge centered over Texas with a cut-off low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge over Texas will continue to suppress much of the rain activity minus only a few isolated showers across the coastal plains today and tomorrow. The vertical compression and slightly warmer 925mb temperatures will allow for higher surface temperatures today than yesterday.
though most areas will be a bit warmer than yesterday. Track of remnant outflow boundary and interaction with northward moving warm front on Monday to keep POPs possible despite subsidence behind wave triggering the MCS.
Hot and humid conditions will persist on Wed-Thu as a mid/upper trough develops across the west coast and mid/upper ridging maintains it's influence across the central Conus. The trough will help break down the ridge as we move into the latter portion of the week.
The high cloudiness from neighboring Mexico is waning and lower cloudiness will take precedent after sunrise this morning. Overall, mid-level high pressure will ensure VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, 500 mb high pressure will dominate over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the forecast period.
Expect the upper level high pressure system to remain quasi- stationary over the Region (GFS deterministic) and moisture metric PWAT to remain generally above normal (NAM deterministic) during the period.
936 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2016 High pressure will build into the region today and for the first part of the new week. High pressure builds over the region today, bringing drier conditions with dew points staying in the 60s. Those lower dewpoints from the high pressure will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 60s across much of the area - low 70s in the cities and along the Bay. Low pressure gaining strength over the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to see some of its moisture stream north during the early part of the week. This may have trouble progressing into the region because of the high pressure to the north - any precipitation chances will be contained to the central Shenandoah Valley. Lows again the mid 60s except for the warmer usual locations.
A main closed upper low exists across the western coast of Washington state this morning as evident on water vapor imagery and 500mb height analysis. trough carves out around this low and sends southwest flow aloft over the state of Montana. Maliawco The overall synoptic weather pattern which will dominate the region over the next several days has taken shape with a stalled upper-level low pressure center over the Puget Sound area, and downstream southwest flow aloft pushing moisture through the northern Rockies and adjacent northern high plains regions.
A bubble of higher moisture to slowly work in from the west by this evening is still expected, but thru the end of this period (Monday Night), the models have favored much of this to now be shunted to our southwest, and if realized, will keep the higher rain chances there as well. Kept PoPs in the chance category, with the highest in central MO, with many areas in IL remaining dry.
Surface analysis this morning places a weak cold front bisecting the Mid-South generally along the I-40 corridor in Arkansas and Tennessee. Broad upper ridge covers the Southern U. Clouds and storms will result in cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s north to around 90 south.
High pressure in place will maintain very light winds through tomorrow, With northerly component becoming a bit more easterly by tomorrow morning.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley into the southern Plains. In the large scale beginning on Monday, an upper level trough will move onto the west coast Monday, which will be the factor in building the ridge back in over the plains and midwest through mid-week.
447 AM PDT Sun Aug 7 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level high over Texas will remain in place today and tonight. With the low-level thermal ridge building into our area a bit from the west and northwest, highs today should be slightly hotter than yesterday and close to what the GFS MOS is indicating.
Activity will fade again this evening with loss of heating, but closer to weak low/trof over the Suwannee River Valley the flow off the NE GOMEX will keep potential for scattered to numerous showers and storms to continue in that region. Small craft exercise caution conditions expected for several days over the coastal waters with elevated SSW flow on the east side of an area of low pressure meandering over the NE Gulf Coast region.
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes Region this morning. Broad troughing is in place across the Great Lakes and through new England, with ridging through the central U.
East to northeast winds will then prevail tonight and Monday as a large high pressure area moves east across the northern Great Lakes.
Another slow-moving upper level low near Vancouver Island will begin to move into Washington tonight and Monday. Models showing that any precipitation with this low will remain to the north of the forecast area, but will see a cooling trend with high temperatures on Monday around 5 degrees below normal.
Seeing a nice gradient from north to south with dew points in the lower 60s across southern IN, and still in the lower 70s across southern KY. Expecting a dry day in most spots as high pressure takes hold behind the frontal boundary. Monday should again by dry in most spots as high pressure at the surface and aloft hold on.
and Monday Canadian high pressure continued to build into the western Great Lakes early this morning.
Similar conditions are expected Monday, though with slightly warmer surface temps as heights rise in response to upper ridge over the Plains spreading east across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. Based on model thermal fields, continue to prefer a blend toward the similar but slightly warmer NAM MET mos guidance for highs both days. The upper ridge axis begins to move east of the area Monday night, with indications of a low-amplitude mid-level short wave approaching from the west overnight.
Highs will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, particularly in the urban heat island where super adiabatic lapse rates will be especially pronounced. Patchy fog may redevelop tonight, but warmer temperatures may preclude it altogether.
904 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A pressure trough will remain near the forecast area through much of the week. The pressure trough and heating should help support showers and thunderstorms today and tonight with coverage greatest near the time of maximum heating. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance based on the recent bias. Moderate instability and possible short wave troughs lifting northwest across the area through the day supports likely pops by the afternoon. Upper level trough will remain situated across the Southeastern States for much of the period. A pressure trough will help support showers and thunderstorms especially near the time of maximum heating. A pressure trough will remain near the area with high moisture during much of the outlook period.
741 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather until warmth, humidity and rain chances return by mid week. A weak trough has resulted in a few showers over areas in lee of Lake Erie this morning. Building high pressure should rapidly dissipate these and any residual cloudiness.
1241 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the early part of this week.
Broad upper ridge covers the Southern U. Clouds and storms will result in cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s north to around 90 south.
A bubble of higher moisture to slowly work in the from the west by this evening is still expected, but thru the end of this period (Monday Night), the models have favored much of this to now be shunted to our southwest, and if realized, will keep the higher rain chances there as well. Kept PoPs in the chance category, with the highest in central MO, with many areas in IL remaining dry.
Otherwise, temperatures should cool to lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, slightly cooler than this morning in some currently cloud covered areas.
1041 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
Satellite imagery and surface obs indicated a large and deep area of high pressure across the southeast U. There was a coastal trough offshore the Fl east coast producing a few showers which were coming ashore the coast of southern St. The exception will be across the far southeast zones where moisture will be just deep enough for scattered showers and isolated storms in association with scattered activity moving inland from the coastal trough.
Expect mainly cool and dry conditions today with showers entering in from the west later tonight as the main trough axis passes right over eastern Montana. Maliawco Repeated upper-level troughs that emerge from the northern and Canadian Rockies will keep the relatively cooler air mass in place over northeast Montana over the next few days. The next most prominent trough passage expected to bring some precipitation to the area will be on Friday.
620 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Terminals slow to deteriorate this morning, likely due to the high level cloudiness streaming across the Four-State region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon-into early evening, courtesy an upper level high pressure streaming in low level moisture thus making way for sea-breeze convection. We look ready set go to see some decent coverage of rain again today with a tropical plume of moisture overhead rotating in under the Bermuda ridge. The GFS and Euro are similar on any path with Euro still much deeper and stronger on the low.
A warming trend will continue across the region as high pressure aloft builds over the region. A thermal trough of low pressure will move over the Willamette Valley today and Friday, which will bring easterly flow across the Cascades.
1009 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Warm and humid conditions will persist today, with mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern states. The cold front moving into the area will be ushering in a slightly drier air mass, but the front is expected to be severely lacking in forcing and convergence.
the low ceilings and ground fog will linger through 14-15Z before a gradual improvement occurs through mid to late morning with VFR prevailing thereafter. Upper air analysis last evening showed south to southwesterly flow over Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Water vapor satellite imagery showed mid-level moisture moving into Texas around the back side of the ridge over the southeast. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term the upper level ridge over the southeast will shift to the northeast, but heights over Texas will stay about the same.
1036 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 While moisture remains about average for this time of year, an upper level trough will continue to slowly move over the area. This trough will bring some cooling aloft which will cause some destabilization this afternoon and evening so expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough doesn't move much and will remain the focus of our weather into Friday with more of the same expected.
An upper level low/trough will lift east-northeast from southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains to northern Lake Superior and Ontario today. Expects gusts to around 20 mph, and highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern central Minnesota to the lower 70s across northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will move into the Northland, providing and clearer and cooler night. Southwest flow will develop Friday, bringing warmer air back into the region.
A warming and drying trend is expected for the weekend, with high pressure building over the Intermountain West.
Axis of a weak upper level trough is over the forecast area today and will continue to sink to the south through this evening.
The leading short wave trough has nearly cleared the eastern flank of the area with abundant low level moisture remaining in its wake.
Low clouds which had already developed behind a slow moving cold front in southwest Kansas will be slow to erode early today, even with the passage of the upper level trough based on the low level moisture profiles from the NAM and GFS model soundings. Some breaks in the clouds however are not out of the question, especially given the quicker movement of the upper level trough early this morning. However if the clouds hold on the highs may struggle to climb much more than the lower 70s. The chance for precipitation will continue from Thursday night through the weekend period as more upper level troughs cross the Central Plains and the stationary front, located in the Panhandle of Texas today lifts north across western Kansas.