Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heights will continue to rise through the day, with upper ridging from the west extending further across the central and southeast. Temperatures through the period will again be on the warm side with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Locations across Okeechobee and St Lucie Counties southward will have the highest chances this afternoon, at 40-60%, due to higher moisture lingering across the Lake Okeechobee region. 500mb temperatures will also be warmer, at around -7C, but small hail cannot be ruled out. Afternoon high temperatures this afternoon will continue to be hot, forecast in the lower 90s across the interior and upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. The highest chances for seeing TS will be at Treasure Coast terminals, which will need to be watched for TEMPOs for MVFR/brief IFR CIGs/VIS.
Seasonal temperatures in the lower 70s will occur today.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week leading to much warmer weather. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store late this week and Heat Watches/Warnings are in effect for the lower elevations. A high pressure system continues to amplify over the region this week.
This feature, aided by sufficient moisture, low level upslope flow, daytime heating, and attendant atmospheric instability should result in the development of another round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeastern CO and eastern NM. Low level upslope flow, plenty of moisture, and an unstable atmosphere will help promote a new round of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain of eastern NM and southeast CO Wednesday afternoon, which will track east southeast and southeast into the OK and TX Panhandles late Wednesday afternoon and night.
621 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 We're starting out this morning with zonal to slight ridging at 500mb, with the main low over Ontario set up with a trough extending west along the MT/Canada line. At the surface, a weak ridge will extend from central Canada down through ND and northeastern SD/western MN. An elongated area of low pressure stretching from southern Alberta through eastern MT will be extend to another low set up between southwestern NE through TX. For today, the 500mb will slowly sink south across ND and MT, and into SD/MT, with the main trough sliding over eastern SD and into southern MN/IA by or shortly after 12Z Wednesday. High pressure will slowly build in from the west overnight through the day Wednesday.
A weak cold front will attempt to enter the area today, but will not make much progress. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a ridge extending from the Pacific to the Texas Gulf Coast, resulting in zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the north, a cold front was moving through the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, the front will resume its southward progress after sundown, but a 45+kt LLJ will slow its progression, confining cooler temperatures/convection to the extreme north.
There is also a weak cold front this morning arcing from Georgian Bay through the eastern Corn Belt to the Ozarks that will settle southward today, providing another source of lift. We should be able to achieve convective temperatures in the lower 80s, though probably not much more than that. Similar to yesterday, high freezing heights suggest that most hail will likely remain generally below severe limits. Additionally, a weak cold front will come sliding in from the north this afternoon and eventually stall across central Kentucky, and some models indicate showers/storms could develop in response to surface lift from the front. An upper level trough will swing through the region during the day, and upper level lift/forcing associated with the trough as well as surface convergence from the frontal boundary will result in showers/storms during the day and evening hours.
As a result, clouds will be fewer across the region with sunny to mostly sunny skies for most locations yielding warmer than normal temperatures. A low amplitude ridge builds to the west tonight and its axis shifts over the forecast area on Wednesday. The warming trend will continue through the end of the week as a shallow ridge becomes the dominant feature over the West. As a result, highs are forecast to climb into the upper 90s with some locations in the lower valleys reaching 100 degrees by the end of the week for the first time this year. Precipitation will be limited during the period, though most day's models suggest the potential for isolated storms over the higher terrain on the periphery of the forecast area each afternoon/evening.
530 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary south of the region, across southern NE, with a weakening cold front/trough across SD. One more day of unsettled and cooler weather as the next stronger disturbance over western WY moves east over our area later this morning and afternoon. Highs today will be in the 60s and lower 70s, with some 50s across the higher Black Hills. Wednesday will be the start of a somewhat drier and warmer stretch of weather as a ridge slowly builds over the western US. Warming trend continues late week into the weekend as ridge continues to build to the west and gradually shifts eastward. Even with the building ridge, a couple of disturbances are likely to pass over at least parts of the area during the period.
Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 70s.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast CO and northeast NM late this afternoon, then move east and southeast into the area this evening and tonight. This feature, aided by sufficient moisture, low level upslope flow, daytime heating, and attendant atmospheric instability should result in the development of another round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeastern CO and eastern NM. Low level upslope flow, plenty of moisture, and an unstable atmosphere will help promote a new round of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain of eastern NM and southeast CO Wednesday afternoon, which will track east southeast and southeast into the OK and TX Panhandles late Wednesday afternoon and night.
Mid-level ridge builds over the region today with plenty of subsidence leading to more hot temperatures and dry conditions.
A weak cold front will attempt to enter the area today, but will not make much progress other than a wind shift. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a ridge extending from the Pacific to the Texas Gulf Coast, resulting in zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the north, a cold front was moving through the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, the front will resume its southward progress after sundown, but a 45+kt LLJ will slow its progression, confining cooler temperatures/convection to the extreme north.
A trough of low pressure will develop inland on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Today: High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will extend across the Southeast United States, while a weak stationary front across southern zones shifts north, but dissipates by late day. High temperatures will be above normal, generally in the lower to perhaps mid 90s away from the cooler coastline. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s.
With mid level ridging in place, persistent low level onshore winds and mostly sunny skies in the afternoons, expect to see steadily warmer temperatures over the next two days (an isolated shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, but chances are too close to zero to mention in the forecast). High temperatures both days will be close to a mid to upper 90 range inland (maybe right around 100 at a spot or two) and closer to the lower 90s across much of the coastal counties and near the beaches. Low temperatures will likely not fall below the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s along the beaches.
Weak surface ridging over Florida today will setup light and somewhat variable winds, with the west coast sea breeze producing westerly winds in the afternoon.
528 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers will continue across the north this morning, then shift southward as a low pressure system drifts into the Dakotas. The rain will gradually dissipate in the late afternoon and evening with high pressure moving into eastern Montana. An upper ridge building into the northern Rockies will shift eastward on Wednesday bringing warmer and drier conditions.
High pressure will strengthen across the region beginning Wednesday, with the resultant warming trend bringing hot and dry conditions for the end of the week.
High pressure over the area will setup light and variable winds this morning, focusing onshore this afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge of high pressure will then setup south of the waters by Wednesday, with generally westerly flow holding through the rest of the week.
A trough of low pressure will develop inland on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. For today: High pressure off the Mid Atlantic region will stretch into the Southeast states, while a stationary front that lies initially east-west near our southern zones, will lift north and eventually dissipate by days end. Meanwhile a short wave trough in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley this morning will dampen as it moves through this afternoon. High temperatures will be above normal, generally in the lower to perhaps mid 90s away from the cooler coastline. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s.
This moisture has been pushed into the Florida Keys by ridging in the western Atlantic.
611 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Outside of a few showers into this morning, drier and cooler conditions will dominate into early Wednesday. While the lingering area of precip will shift east and weaken with time main cold front is still set to slowly drop in this morning. Chances for showers/storms will quickly increase by Wed afternoon with the next trough dropping in from the north. Definitely leaning towards the lower end at this point with lack of deeper moisture. More significant trough will be carved out as piece of Pacific energy ejects out of the NW states and another trough drops out of Canada from the Hudson Bay closed low. Cutoff upper low will only make slow progress east across Ontario over the weekend keeping the area on the "cooler" side with highs in the 70s.
Upper level high pressure centered over the Southern Plains builds east over portions of the Southeast. Tonight,low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected well inland, upper 70s along the coast.
Weak high pressure and sea breeze initiated convection expected through Wednesday.
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A weak cold front will help focus low level convergence for the soupy and warming air mass to initiate showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening peak heating hours. While a lull may occur, there is still a chance of showers with a returning warm front in association with the next vigorous wave of energy poised to be incoming early tmrw.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s tonight will limit low temperatures tonight from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast. Wednesday's highs will be just a couple degrees cooler across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains as WAA at 850mb gets replaced by weak CAA. Mid-level high pressure ridge axis will shift southeastward, causing winds aloft to shift from NE to more E/SE, resulting in just a slight increase in moisture. Lows will remain consistent, in the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast.
The low ceilings are starting to mix out and become scattered, but expect scattered mid level clouds to stream across the area through most of the afternoon. Lingering moisture and low level thermal trough should result in an evolving CU field. Otherwise high pressure settles in for a dry day today. Onshore flow will keep things cooler near the lake.
348 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 High pressure will linger through tonight. A trough of low pressure will develop inland tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight, weak high pressure should prevail across the region under a zonal flow aloft.
Mostly sunny skies persist through the afternoon and evening as any residual moisture is scoured out by uniform northwest flow, allowing temperatures to rebound into the low 70s this afternoon and evening. Clear skies and light winds create favorable conditions for patchy fog development overnight as temperatures drop into the lower 50s, mainly atop wet areas from recent rainfall. Otherwise, dry weather persists through early half of tomorrow as the high pressure center translates overhead.
Generally light flow is in place across Iowa with high pressure ridged just to the north and east of the area. High pressure arrives Wednesday night with pleasant temperatures expected for the overnight.
323 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A stubborn upper level low over northern Ontario continued to influence our weather today.
We're starting out this morning with zonal to slight ridging at 500mb, with the main low over Ontario set up with a trough extending west along the MT/Canada line. At the surface, a weak ridge will extend from central Canada down through ND and northeastern SD/western MN. An elongated area of low pressure stretching from southern Alberta through eastern MT will be extend to another low set up between southwestern NE through TX. For today, the 500mb will slowly sink south across ND and MT, and into SD/MT, with the main trough sliding over eastern SD and into southern MN/IA by or shortly after 12Z Wednesday. High pressure will slowly build in from the west overnight through the day Wednesday.
A weak cold front has moved farther south than originally expected bringing MAF/HOB easterly winds. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a ridge extending from the Pacific to the Texas Gulf Coast, resulting in zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the north, a cold front was moving through the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, the front will resume its southward progress after sundown, but a 45+kt LLJ will slow its progression, confining cooler temperatures/convection to the extreme north.
As the upper low moves east, a broad upper ridge moves into the area tonight and Wednesday, beginning a warming trend that'll last into the weekend.
A few higher gusts have been recorded across the Lower Keys recently that likely occurred as an outflow boundary moved across a few observation stations. A ridge axis will set up near our area, causing winds to be light from the south, becoming variable at times.
With dew points in the lower 50s, and with better instability further south, not expected much severe storms in this CWA, with maybe a few stronger storms in Jones, Lyman, and Stanly county area. mid level ridging in the west, and troffing in the east. The overall pattern looks to favor some progression, with the western ridge moving into the Northern Plains this weekend. By early next the ridge will get shoved to the Great Lakes region as energy moves into the western CONUS. Lastly, temperatures should average out near normal until this weekend when they'll likely head to above average as the upper ridge builds in.
Wednesday, only a few leftover rain showers are expected near the ND/MT border, as generally sunny/partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures will prevail.
An active weather pattern will remain across the Central Plains due to the area of high pressure currently atop Texas. This area of high pressure should keep most of the rain chances well north of our area, but a few showers/storms may attempt to push in from the north tomorrow morning and afternoon.
An area of low stratus has also been rotating around the low's northwestern quadrant into the Keweenaw and parts of western Upper Michigan. High pressure building in should keep the region dry today.
While a few showers and storms could sneak into far northern portions of the CWA today, high pressure wedged into the region will keep the majority of the convection shunted north of the CWA. Still hot conditions will exist across the entire forecast area with highs warming into the low and middle 90s, with afternoon heat index values over many locations along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor getting up to near the century mark. Heights will continue to rise through the day, with upper ridging from the west extending further across the central and southeast. Temperatures through the period will again be on the warm side with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
315 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Area remains sandwiched between a large upper low over Hudson Bay and weak upper ridging to the west with a weak wave dropping down through the region today into Wednesday. It will also keep temperatures similar to the past few days with the coolest overnight lows tonight into the northeast, and warmer conditions south/west beneath the cloud cover.
This will support quiet weather, with temperatures still cooler than normal.
1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and afternoon thunderstorms return today with a crossing cold front. As a result, instability will develop this afternoon in tandem with cooler air aloft. Thunderstorm activity will wane with sunset and a mild, cooler night will commence. Wednesday will begin quiet, with high pressure attempting to clear the clouds before another low supported by the jet stream and frontogenesis will approach overnight. An elevated dry slot will provide brief dry conditions and a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs before showers and isolated thunderstorms advance southeast ahead of the surface cold front. The uncertainty lies in the degree of boundary layer moistening with the second round of convection, and the degree of stratus clearing with dry mid- level air in the wake of the exiting trough.
A few showers are still expected for the western mountains this afternoon, but their strength will be limited behind the trough. Behind this trough, a brief building ridge across eastern ID/western MT will deflect the next system farther north, limiting shower activity during the day Wednesday. The ridge will bring an increase in temperatures Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees higher than today in the 70s for lower elevations and upper 50s and lower 60s at higher elevations.
(Rest of Today) Moisture transport maxima and convergence continues to maintain small MCS clusters across north AL and southern TN eastward into the lower Smoky Mtns. Weak QG forcing could limit the extent of the activity with weak ridging shifting into the area, so have modified PoPs somewhat for areal extent based on new suggested blends. This is likely with dew points in the lower 70s with highs forecast in the middle to upper 80s.
Buoyancy is plenty sufficient (SBCAPES of 3000-3500 j/kg) given dew points in the lower 70s.
1014 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A weak cold front moves southeast across the plains today, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms possible over north- central and central Montana as a result. Another cold front moves across the area Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to southwest and central Montana.
Temperatures through the short term are slightly above seasonal, with lows in the 60s and low 70s and highs in the low 80s north to low 90s south.
Will likely see an uptick in coverage over the next several hours, but highest PoPs will remain south of the Orlando metro, with the highest moisture persisting across south Florida. Overnight lows will remain near average, in the lower 70s.
An upper high will continue to dominate the region tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Models are in general agreement that convection should wane/dissipate as it move into the far southern Texas Panhandle by tomorrow morning thanks to the upper high. Late day convection Raton Mesa southward onto the plains of eastern New Mexico will have a shot of moving eastward into the forecast area as a generally flat sub-tropical upper level high will remain over much of the southern tier of the CONUS.
A trough of low pressure will develop inland on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will be above normal, generally in the lower to perhaps mid 90s away from the cooler coastline. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s.
A mid-level ridge moves across the Rockies and Bighorns into the region.
Shallow ridge transitions across forecast area overnight, with mid level moisture spilling over top of ridge across central mountains overnight. NAM and GFS along with NBM keep conditions dry, but weak returns present across some of the high-res solutions. Remainder of the forecast area sees shallow ridge with warming temps.
(This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop over eastern Wyoming, and dynamic lift associated with and upslope flow is forecast to generate thunderstorms over the high plains later this afternoon/evening. The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
A slight weakening of the thermal ridge will allow for ever so slightly cooler conditions tomorrow.
(This evening through Wednesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
The primary synoptic frontal boundary is draped generally along the Nebraska/Kansas border with a lee trof well off to our west. Expect Short wave energy evident in water vapor imagery will spill down from the northern Rockies and initiate convection along the lee trof upstream as is happening currently across northeast Wyoming. 0-3km bulk shear vectors around 30kt largely orthogonal to the lee trof and long curved hodographs shown in Bufkit will support discrete supercells with steep lapse rates and ample CAPE supporting a severe wind/hail threat. Wednesday looks quiet and dry with high pressure moving across the High Plains, followed by a chance of showers/possibly some thunder Wednesday night as the high pushes off to our east and return flow brings a warm front up into the region.
416 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and afternoon thunderstorms return today with a crossing cold front. An encroaching cold front will continue to generate numerous showers and storms this aftn and eve. Thunderstorm activity will wane with sunset and a mild, cooler night will commence. Wednesday will begin quiet, with high pressure attempting to clear the clouds before another low supported by the jet stream and frontogenesis will approach overnight. Restrictions including lcl IFR are expected this eve as showers and storms cross the region with a cold front.
1119 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary south of the region, across southern NE, with a weakening cold front/trough across SD. One more day of unsettled and cooler weather as the next stronger disturbance over western WY moves east over our area later this morning and afternoon. Highs today will be in the 60s and lower 70s, with some 50s across the higher Black Hills. Wednesday will be the start of a somewhat drier and warmer stretch of weather as a ridge slowly builds over the western US. Warming trend continues late week into the weekend as ridge continues to build to the west and gradually shifts eastward. Even with the building ridge, a couple of disturbances are likely to pass over at least parts of the area during the period.
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will push across Central PA from NW to SE this evening and early tonight. Showers will move across all of central PA this afternoon and evening, with perhaps a few thunderstorms across the northwest as well associated with the cold front.