Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATTER ON MONDAY WILL WEAKEN ONCE MODERATE DOWNSTREAM ONSHORE WINDS AND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR DECKS. THINK IT IS BEST TO KEEP 20% POPS IN TODAY'S FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL. AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. A STRONG WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SHOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND FLATTENS IT.
The next wave of showers have pushed into the Northern Rockies overnight with periods of snow being reported across the higher terrain as well as in some lower elevation locations. 2 to 6 inches) Regardless, there will still be periods of travel impacts over the higher terrain this morning, especially to those traveling over Lolo and Lookout Pass. Forecast models have deviated little from their depictions 1 to 2 inches total precipitation over the higher terrain of the Mission, Swan, Bitterroot and Clearwater Mountains.
Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range locally. The models are a few degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
955 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 401 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE SECOND TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA INCREASES. WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE GULF. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST TX TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT THREE TO SIX INCHES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
425 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016 ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
Some light freezing rain/drizzle could be possible this morning for FYV/ROG/XNA sites. with temperatures warming above freezing by early afternoon.
513 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 Precipitation has expanded across much of west central into central Missouri this morning, much of which consists of a sleet/freezing rain mix. While precipitation is quick-moving, freezing rain rates are high enough to get a quick coating of ice up to 1/8" thick in less than a half hour. The latter area should continue to expand into west central and into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as well. However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a winter weather advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of US 50.
652 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST TODAY WILL MAKE WAY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TODAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL DROP THE HIGH TEMPERATURE A FEW TO 13 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
Surface observations show a general trough of low pressure across the Great Plains from west TX to the Canadian boarder as the arctic high pressure system continues to move east. RAP forecast soundings hint at some weak elevated instability but the low level moisture has been slow to move into east central KS. Will increase chances for precip and mention freezing rain in the forecast. Meanwhile the NAM has surface temps around freezing but a lot more dry air to overcome. Think the NAM is probably handling the thermal profile within the boundary layer better than the GFS so have lows in the lower 30s for tonight.
/ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ A MILD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR. WHEN THIS FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN. BEYOND THIS, SEVERAL DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, AND BY MID-WEEK A STRONG WARMING, UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
535 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS. OMEGA WITHIN THIS LAYER DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (BROAD) GIVEN DAMPENING NATURE TO UPPER WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS LEFTOVER CONFLUENCE ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SFC AMBIENT TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE LOW-MID 20S. WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN LOSS OF ICE CONCERNS.
257 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S. (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT THEN BUILDING INTO MIDWEEK. BY THU A 5H WAVE TROF TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GTLKS REGION WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN GTLKS. AS A SECOND 5H WAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD THE GTLKS. PRIMARY FTR OF NOTE ALOFT IS SW TROUGH WRAPPING SOUTH ACRS WRN IL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. A SLOW CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL START ON SUNDAY.
133 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN BY DAY'S END, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WHILE MODELS VARY IN TIMING.
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN OUR SWRN ZONES ACROSS DEEP E TX. /ISSUED 811 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/ VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 12/06Z-12/09Z WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA RETURNING GULF MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 1025 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY BUT HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL STAY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN GO SOUTHERLY DUE TO A SECONDARY WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE BAJA OF CA COAST. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E-NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 78 59 71 / 0 10 40 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 74 56 74 / 0 0 30 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 75 56 73 / 0 0 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 72 50 74 / 0 0 10 50.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. WHERE LOWER STRATUS MAY RESULT IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INTO COASTAL CAROLINA BY SUNDAY.
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER MORE RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD NORTH TO KAEX AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SE. WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. 13 THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. MOISTURE LADEN AIR TRAVERSING COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG.
THIS DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FIND ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT WILL BE COOLER FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DIGGING IN FROM THE NW THAT WILL BRING INCREASING EVENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A DRY COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENT WINDS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND ALSO PRODUCE MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUT SOME DISTANCE BETWEEN US AND IT SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES OFF TO SEA. AND THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRAILS IT MOVING EAST/AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AS A TROF/COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DROPPING TO AROUND 4KFT SUNDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING IN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
Storm chances increase Sunday afternoon as an upper low over Baja California moves toward El Paso, bringing increasing divergence aloft.
BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
811 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 12/06Z-12/09Z WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA RETURNING GULF MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS.
ALOFT RIDGING REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN OVER NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND A RELAXED GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. REINFORCING THE RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EASING IT/S AXIS NORTHWARD.
Sunday, said upper low will be sw of KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS).
952 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
1243 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
How the morning convection plays out and how much the clouds clear out will determine the strength of the stronger convection tied to the cold front. The current forecast is constructed with the idea that pre-frontal convection will form late afternoon or early evening across northeast KS and northwest MO with the cold front generated convection eventually dropping southeast and merging.
906 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
809 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT WILL BE COOLER FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S.
650 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2015 A cold front has moved through the region leaving unsettled weather this afternoon. Widespread showers accompanied by breezy conditions will give way to a ridge of high pressure Sunday.
735 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVING INTO TX ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.
1204 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WILL A WARMER SUNDAY AS HIGHS LIKELY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
735 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
1008 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
955 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 259 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME MODELS. UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS PROGD TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT.
ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO OFF THE BAJA SPUR PUSHING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SONORA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND FORCING OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH TUCSON NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE. DUE TO THE HIGH BASES WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS.
945 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS SUNRISE APPROACHES AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INLAND AND LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER MORE RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD NORTH TO KAEX AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SE. WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. 13 THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. MOISTURE LADEN AIR TRAVERSING COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG.
730 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NE FL BY SUNDAY AM. MODELS INDICATE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NE FL WATERS.
AS THE AIRMASS WAS LIFTED ABOVE THIS LOW LCL. ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS THE LACK OF WIND THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE STORM DEPTH. THIS ALLOWED FOR THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL BANDS OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE RIVER PARISHES AND HOUMA AREA.
855 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST OF THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WORKING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
728 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SHALLOW INHIBITION EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVELS.
Still should be a pretty good radiational cooling night given generally light winds and clear skies, so lows will once again dip into the upper 30s and 40s, perhaps into the mid-30s in a few of the typically cooler locations.
BOTH THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH THE WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER.
742 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF LOW. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS DEPICTED BY MOST OF HIRES MODELS AND LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION AND POSITION THE BOUNDARY ALONG I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
639 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015 High pressure will drift eastward into the Appalachians tonight, allowing light S/SE return flow to continue across central Illinois. Given the very dry airmass initially in place beneath the high and a continued easterly component to the low-level flow tonight, think the GFS is too aggressive. Further west where clouds arrive sooner, lows will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s. 12Z models have trended slower with the cold front expected to move through the area Sun night/Mon.
948 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
616 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 VERY PLEASANT EARLY APRIL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS NOT AS STRONG BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES FROM SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THE NICE WEATHER COMES COMPLIMENTS OF LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND THUS HAVE MAINLY SIDED TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORING LOWER SIDE EAST AND WARMER SIDE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MODERATE FORCING/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
755 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT.
712 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
941 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY.
750 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
731 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A PLEASANTLY WARM DAY EXPECTED.
550 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2015 MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S UP TO THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RAP/HRRR MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEST SO HAVE RELIED ON THIS GUIDANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. A LEE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
1006 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
803 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 VERY PLEASANT EARLY APRIL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS NOT AS STRONG BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES FROM SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THE NICE WEATHER COMES COMPLIMENTS OF LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND THUS HAVE MAINLY SIDED TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORING LOWER SIDE EAST AND WARMER SIDE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MODERATE FORCING/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
729 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
918 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.