Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures were quite mild from the mid 50s to low 60s and will likely not change much for the rest of the night with the low clouds and southerly wind. The main focus in the short term will be with the cloud cover and fog dissipation during the day today and resultant temperatures, and the upper level wave moving into the high Plains tonight. The clouds will hinder some of the high temperature potential, but still looking at mid 60s to mid 70s for highs, with the higher readings where the most sun can occur. Attention will then turn to the system out west tonight, which should begin to move into the high Plains.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND WIND WILL DIVE SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
148 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
340 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
905 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
1159 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.
The 00z upper air analysis showed a deep 500 millibar trough extending from western Alberta south across the western states to just offshore of Baja California. A fairly substantial 100+ knot upper level jet extended from Arizona into south central Canada ahead of the main trough axis. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure was centered over the Nebraska Panhandle into Colorado. East of this low, a tight surface pressure gradient continues extends from the upper Midwest into west Texas. The low cloud/fog channel sat imagery shows the stratus developing as far west as Highway 281 with a few fragments starting to develop farther west into western Oklahoma. While chances are pretty slim, an isolated tornado could also occur given some veering of the low level wind profile.
344 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN U. WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
350 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z.
LOW POPS RETAINED FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AS PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
/ISSUED 154 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. WILL NOT BE LONG AFTER THE SUN SETS THAT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS EXPAND RAPIDLY ONCE AGAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER TONIGHT. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SOME TERMINAL AIRPORTS.
/ISSUED 909 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT SFC. WITH OTHER PLACES IN THE LOWER 70S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT FROM THE PACIFIC THAT IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT PRESENT WV IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA TO THE SRN CA COASTAL REGION. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN CONUS TROF WILL BE SLOW MAKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 500MB AXIS NOT REACHING THE WRN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG MOISTURE POOLING LONG A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW PCPN DEVELOPMENT JUST NW OF THE CWA WITHIN AXIS OF INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH WITH TIME-SECTIONS INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE CWA WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTN.
256 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Low clouds have overspread the area this morning as moisture streams north and continues to deepen ahead of the next trough.
For Thursday, out ahead of a deep upper trough and attendant cold front, moisture will pool into the region, allowing dewpoints to flirt with the lower 60s and overall PWATs to rise as well, potentially reaching above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
THURSDAY COULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP.
AND INCLUDED SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS.
1202 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WERE VERY CLOSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE LOWS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL RESTRICT VIS IN SOME AREAS AS WELL.
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest on Wednesday bringing mainly clear skies, light winds, and chilly temperatures. The low level moisture and westerly flow should help keep this area mostly cloudy through the night.
147 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL PRODUCE SOME TURBULENCE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT OR SO. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL BRING US A BRIEF SHOT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE PUMPED UP ON THE ORDER OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. DEEP MIXING FORECAST BY THE MODELS IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PULLED ANOTHER 180 ON ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND.
Low pressure area is over Southern California. Another low pressure area will drop southward overnight through Nevada. Cold air advection will continue to flow into the region to keep temperatures a little cooler than normal.
401 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BREAK THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
Strong southerly flow has commenced as an upper trough digs to our west over CA and NV. Tomorrow doesn't look quite as warm as today given the increase in moisture and height falls occurring ahead of the trough. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night as the trough begins to lift into the Plains. There is a potential for the Guadalupe Mountains to see a few hours of high winds during the day Thursday so will continue to monitor the forecast position of the upper trough.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
BUT OF COURSE IF CLOUDS MOVE IN WE WILL BE WARMER. MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE. AN INTENSE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE.
/issued / A deep upper trough lies over the western CONUS. with broad ridging downstream over the remainder of the nation. lee troughing to our west and broad ridging to our east will maintain southerly flow across our region. Fog has developed the past couple of nights due to the higher dewpoint air in place. Expect a slightly warmer day on Wednesday. after the low clouds/fog burn off that is. when the western CONUS trough lifts out into the Plains.
THIS INVERSION IS THE RESULT OF CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW BELOW 850MB ADVECTING IN SOME COOLER AIR. AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT.
338 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WERE VERY CLOSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS LOW STRATUS DECK IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE ATTM. SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WILL ALSO OCCUR WHERE CIGS ARE THE LOWEST.
245 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO OH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WANE FRI EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING AWAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND TO PROVIDE NICE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA.
1236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SUN AND SUN EVENING WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND LESS CAPPING WILL BE SITUATED. STILL FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MON NIGHT AS CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS SHOW AN AREA OF 850MB CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF WYOMING AND WILL PUSH ON SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO BY 06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING AND WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH 06Z. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALONG AND WITHIN 60 MILES NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE WESTERN VALLEYS.
AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS TROFFING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK TELECONNECTED RIDGING TO OUR WEST. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE WEST. AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST. A LINE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD EASTWARDS.
259 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUING TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN NO STRONG PUNCH OF DRY AIR OR RIDGING. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE AREA WILL STAY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW.
349 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 A COLD FRONT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A SMALL CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND THIS. WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S.
TODAY WAS A BIT WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REACHING 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN GUID IS OFFERING AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY. THE TEMP TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
A PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS WORKING WELL SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LATE SEASON AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MID MS VALLEY WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AND BRING A NICE DAY LOCALLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
422 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH COOLER MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AIDED IN BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS REINFORCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
235 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES BEHIND THE WEAKENING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN EC/SC MN AND WC WI. WC/SW MN WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE AFTN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS PIVOTING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
1239 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY.
346 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015 SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW BUT CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER END. SO AGAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY IN THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE OR THE GRADIENT. NEXT TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUN. TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
357 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT EAST WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. ALL FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWEST 1 KM FAIRLY DRY EAST OF I-35.
1143 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING.
1242 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THIS WEEKEND REVOLVING AROUND PAC NW TROF MOVING ALONG THE U. /CAN BORDER AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD IN. JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SHOOT UP INTO THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF ELEVATED RH IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTNUE A DRY BUT COOLER FORECAST.
245 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 DRIER AIR ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA ON GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT TIMES, AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEEKEND, IN GREAT CONTRAST TO THE RECORD HEAT WHICH WAS OBSERVED LAST WEEKEND.
417 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUING TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WE MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN NO STRONG PUNCH OF DRY AIR OR RIDGING. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY ERODE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE AREA WILL STAY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD STARTS.
COLD CORE DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO SMALL HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER OFF THE CAROLINAS. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION IS PROGGED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT IN THE HIGHLANDS.
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SLIGHTLY WARMS.
342 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TOGETHER WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME AT THE LOW LEVELS. THOUGH SOME PLACES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE MAY DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AIR.
OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO BLD QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY W/SUBSTANTIAL LL THERMAL MODERATION XPCD OUTSIDE LAKE SHADOW. MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN WAKE OF TODAY'S UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP MID AND UPPER COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EXISTS AN OMEGA RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES AND A DEVELOPING CUTOFF FEATURE OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS BEING INITIATED BY TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASK WITH A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN MT. PRECIP WAS ORIENTATED ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE SHOWERS.
WITH ALL OF THIS SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MASS THOUGH WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY.
DEW POINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE LOW 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS SLOWLY PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS WEEKEND WITH RISING TEMPS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SO A FEW FAVORED COLD SPOTS LIKE ALTONA COULD GET A BIT COLDER. AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
330 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 WATCHING SEVERAL WEAK SHOWERS WEST RIVER ALONG THE TROF AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY.
CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH AS IT HEADS EAST INTO THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
620 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.