Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
133 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 It's going to be a great weekend to enjoy being outdoors! Pleasant weather will continue through the weekend with low humidity and comfortable temperatures expected as an upper level ridge moves in and builds over the central US. This ridge will likely bring a steady increase in temperatures and humidity through the week as well as dry weather. With that said, there are some weak signals that try to break down the ridge some allowing for storm chances to increase, but this seems unlikely at this time.
The old cutoff low has almost been completely absorbed into the developing L/W trough but there is still a spin moving through the TN Valley at 8z. As the low continues to merge with the northern stream system a trough axis will be left over the area today and tomorrow until it finally moves east of the area Saturday. This trough axis should still provide some lift allowing shra and tsra to develop again today. A few showers and thunderstorms will still be possible early tomorrow and remain possible until the trough axis finally moves east of the area.
337 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Early this afternoon an upper level trough was located across the eastern US with an upper low off the CA coast. A upper level ridge extended from northern Mexico northward across the central Rocky Mountains. The far northeast counties will probably see more cloud cover and highs will only reach the lower to mid 70s.
Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s today, and perhaps a couple degrees warmer on Saturday as the ridge strengthens slightly. An upper level ridge currently across the Desert Southwest will expand eastward as a trough digs into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The expanding trough will lead to subsident air throughout much of the week.
256 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Scattered to numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a cold front currently pushing through southern IN and western KY at this hour. Skies will gradually clear late this afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
1153 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE Cu are starting to develop over the high terrain, and another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the high terrain this afternoon. Outflow dominant storms are likely given very light steering flow and slightly warmer temperatures. Look for more of the same Saturday with the upper high sitting directly over NM. A few strong storms are likely Saturday afternoon/evening across the northeast quarter as convection moves off of the higher terrain and encounters 15-20kts of southerly inflow and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 40s.
The axis of high pressure aloft will move eastward across Arizona today. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM Friday for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and southern Yavapai county.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ The vacating upper level trough will be slowly replaced by an upper level ridge out west during the period.
Lows on Saturday night will be in the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s west.
Skies will gradually fill back in this afternoon as cu builds and convection initiates across the plateau/mtns due to heating and steepened mid lvl lapse rates thanks to the advancing trough axis. Otherwise, a cold front continues to approach from the west and will sweep through overnight. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 82 59 80 57 / 30 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 81 57 77 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 81 56 77 53 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 77 52 74 48 / 40 10 0 0 0.
302 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A warm and breezy weekend is on tap, as unseasonably strong upper level high pressure builds east over Mid-America, and lee troughing strengthens across the High Plains.
320 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 At the time of this discussion, the cold front was moving past the Wabash and Ohio Rivers into parts of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
Thus, we expect a few showers/storms to be able to work off the higher terrain and onto the adjacent plains through early evening. A weak cool front will back across the plains in the morning, but overall there does not appear to be much change in the low level moisture field. The cooler air will add more stability, so it will likely take most of the afternoon before convection is able to sustain itself on the plains. We'll keep the higher PoPs in/near the Front Range mountains and foothills for the afternoon hours, although we should see better coverage than today. Upper ridge of high pressure over Colorado Saturday night with an embedded wave cutting through the ridge.
Upper level pattern to start the period begins with northwest flow aloft as a strong ridge is in place in the intermountain west. and a trof over Hudson Bay.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows our weather dominated by a progressive, amplified pattern, with a trough axis to our east shifting into the Ohio River Valley making room for a northwest flow over the Central Plains today. In general, this pattern will prevail through the weekend, with the only real change being that the ridge, currently to our west, will expand across the Plains States; resulting in hot and humid conditions next work week.
Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s today, and perhaps a couple degrees warmer on Saturday as the ridge strengthens slightly. Subtropical ridging will push daytime temperatures above normal, and steady surface winds off the Gulf will assure seasonal humidity. The only potential disruption to an otherwise uniform week would be the upper low currently over the Sierra Madre. It is heading equatorward on the eastern/southeastern fringe of the upper ridge that will drift eastward toward our longitude this weekend.
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A weak warm front should lift into ncntl Nebraska today. An upper level disturbance across Oregon this morning should run the ridge across the Rockies and move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska late tonight and early Saturday.
Instability varies more than bulk shear, but values of most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) are still favorable at 1200 j/kg to 2000 j/kg; the RAP seems to be showing the higher end possibility with values of MUCAPE approaching 3000 j/kg at Crater Lake, which is quite a lot for this time of year. We'll see VFR conditions prevail for most of the day after the low clouds clear up along the coast.
101 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Northerly winds will be a little gusty today as high pressure moves in but will relax towards sunset.
1220 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 The weather pattern aloft reflected a couple of closed lows in the Pacific. Upper ridging extended from the desert southwest north over the Rockies, with northwest flow across the plains states, with a trough to the east from Ontario thru the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure was building southeast from the Dakotas across the plains states. Today we will see the western upper ridge build north and east toward the plains with warmer air beginning to advect east of the Rockies/High Plains. For temperatures Saturday, we should see quite the range in highs with upper 60s forecast in our northeast zones where clouds/precip will be a factor, with much warmer low 80s forecast for our sw counties in north central Kansas where dry weather and a warmer airmass resides.
208 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected tonight into this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a cold front currently pushing through southern IN and western KY at this hour. Skies will gradually clear late this afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were developing off the Laramie range in WY and An upper level ridge extended across the Rockies with a disturbance currently indicated just east of the ridge axis in southwest Montana. The latest MET and MAV guidance was much cooler that the previous forecast. With an increase in cloud cover (mostly cloudy across the northeastern half of the area) and a backed easterly wind highs were lowered to the lower 60s northeast, mid 60s central, to the upper 70s far southwest. So still a large temperature difference across the forecast area, so a further westward shift of the cooler temperatures. A warm front is indicated to be from near Akron, CO through Phillipsburg, KS.
724 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected tonight into this weekend.
844 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 This evening has been a much welcome respite from active weather! High pressure centered over south central Canada responsible for the tranquil weather tonight, and the forecast looks on track with a clear sky, and temperatures falling through the 60s into the mid and upper 50s by midnight-1AM. More cloud cover Saturday night will result in slightly warmer low temperatures, albeit still slightly below normal for the end of May.
725 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Passage of this evenings front will herald much cooler weather for the weekend. The cold front is expected to complete passage by midnight with and residual showers winding down as the associated mid level trough shunts forcing-for-ascent areas eastward.
Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ The vacating upper level trough will be slowly replaced by an upper level ridge out west during the period.
The clearing skies and drier air will allow temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 60s by morning. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight: The back edge of the cumulus field in AR/nw LA appears to be delineating the cold front as dewpoints in those locations have dropped into the 50s and lower 60s.
724 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Lingering shower activity along cold front will be sparse and largely bypass terminals now that thunderstorm has passes east of KFNT. Northwest winds will be prominent as main cold front passes this evening. Mid level trough axis anchored over Lake Michigan mid afternoon will sweep across the local area through the evening hours. Brief increase in mid level ascent tied to this feature will then maintain the chance for a linear axis of low topped showers/isolated thunder to emerge along the attendant secondary cold front.
Early this afternoon an upper level trough was located across the eastern US with an upper low off the CA coast. A upper level ridge extended from northern Mexico northward across the central Rocky Mountains. The far northeast counties will probably see more cloud cover and highs will only reach the lower to mid 70s.
Surface obs this afternoon show a cold front is currently passing through PAH, with radar imagery indicating widely scattered showers ahead of the boundary eastward into our area.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday/ A building ridge aloft and relatively dry air through a deep layer of the atmosphere will yield quiet weather through the weekend. Dewpoints in the 50s and a mostly clear sky tonight will result in a cool night for late May with lows from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Subtropical ridging will push daytime temperatures above normal, and steady surface winds off the Gulf will assure seasonal humidity. The only potential disruption to an otherwise uniform week would be the upper low currently over the Sierra Madre. It is heading equatorward on the eastern/southeastern fringe of the upper ridge that will drift eastward toward our longitude this weekend.
Late afternoon convection moved through the lower valley, but has died off this evening. /issued 249 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Cold front moved through this morning and has become stationary south of the river with an upper level trough/low situated across NE Mexico. Both the GFS/EC show spokes of energy rotating around the upper low with occasional clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms rolling through the CWA, especially the RGV, over the next 36 hours. Temperatures will remain below normal for the last days of May with plenty of clouds and the bouts of rain cooled air to keep the region somewhat cooler (but humid) before calender Summer begins.
At the time of this discussion, the cold front was moving past the Wabash and Ohio Rivers into parts of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
/Issued 133 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ It's going to be a great weekend to enjoy being outdoors! Pleasant weather will continue through the weekend with low humidity and comfortable temperatures expected as an upper level ridge moves in and builds over the central US. This ridge will likely bring a steady increase in temperatures and humidity through the week as well as dry weather. With that said, there are some weak signals that try to break down the ridge some allowing for storm chances to increase, but this seems unlikely at this time.
411 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Tonight: The back edge of the cumulus field in AR/nw LA appears to be delineating the cold front as dewpoints in those locations have dropped into the 50s and lower 60s.
658 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A warm and breezy weekend is on tap, as unseasonably strong upper level high pressure builds east over Mid-America, and lee troughing strengthens across the High Plains.
Will watch for continued clearing during the late evening and early overnight hours to assess the low temperature potential, but overall, temperatures appear to remain on track for now. Upper level pattern to start the period begins with northwest flow aloft as a strong ridge is in place in the intermountain west. and a trof over Hudson Bay.
A fairly nice afternoon is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon, as breezy prefrontal WSW winds have allowed most areas to warm into the lower 80s as of 19z. A broad upper-trough continues to shift across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today, with its associated cold front now nosing into West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Otherwise a quiet and dry night with lows in the lower 60s. Expect highs in the upper 70s in the high elevations to around 80 degrees in the valleys for Saturday.
High pressure over the Pacific NW gives way to an approaching low pressure system from the southwest tonight.
830 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
A weakening pressure gradient ahead of approaching high pressure will result in a lake breeze developing later Saturday morning and afternoon. We should see some clearing overnight as high pressure builds in from the east. Skies will then clear for all going into Saturday night as high pressure will be firmly in place overhead.
Southerly flow will strengthen on Saturday ahead of a closed upper low moving north from California into Oregon. This will advect an even warmer airmass into the area and push highs to record levels for May. A cold front will push into the area from the southwest tomorrow and reach southeast Oregon during the mid to late afternoon and southwest Idaho late afternoon into the evening. The front will be marked by winds shifting from south to west and cooler temperatures.
530 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020 20z surface analysis had ridge from central Canada into the southern plains. Warm front/lee trough located from central MT to western KS. Saturday, east/southeast low level flow continues as warm/front lee trough moves little. Thermal ridge building aloft will increase cap strength, but convergence along boundary and the Black Hills terrain could pop off an active storm or two late in the day/early evening.
/22/ Tonight: The back edge of the cumulus field in AR/nw LA appears to be delineating the cold front as dewpoints in those locations have dropped into the 50s and lower 60s.
Nighttime lows will dip to the low to mid 70s, with a few locations cooled by evening showers already approaching their minimums.
613 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Quiet weather tonight into Saturday as upper ridge continues to build into the region. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow compared to today.
921 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A cold front will continue moving eastward and across the TN Valley during the overnight hours, with drier air filtering into the region behind it. Temps will drop into the lower 60s by daybreak on Saturday. Expect highs in the upper 70s in the high elevations to around 80 degrees in the valleys for Saturday.
Closer to home, a western Atlantic ridge axis reaches west to near South Florida. Lower pressure over the Western Caribbean and the Yucatan has enhanced the SFC gradient along the southern flank of the high, with fresh easterly breezes pushing through the Bahamas. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
939 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Weak high pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region tonight with light winds/clear skies.
/issued 236 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ Dry and mild weather will dominate through Saturday as an upper level ridge axis across the southern and central Rockies bends a bit east into the Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Otherwise, tonight will see modest low level southerly flow and seasonable temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s. RMcQueen An upper ridge currently over the southwestern CONUS will move overhead this weekend.
A cold front is moving through middle TN. Last evening's cold front is entirely past Middle Tennessee. High pressure is now building in from the northwest, which means drier air and lower dew points.
Early this afternoon an upper level trough was located across the eastern US with an upper low off the CA coast. A upper level ridge extended from northern Mexico northward across the central Rocky Mountains. The far northeast counties will probably see more cloud cover and highs will only reach the lower to mid 70s. Southerly winds will allow highs to be a bit warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
1233 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020 Any lingering showers associated with a passing cold front will end by daybreak this morning. Then cooler and drier weather will be in store today behind a departing cold front, although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon in Central New York.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s across the north to the mid to upper 80s in the south under plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows drop into the lower 60s and some upper 50s will also be possible.
With the associated cloud cover overnight expected, minimum overnight temps should stay in the low to mid 50s in the lower terrain. Axis of highest instability is expected to setup along the higher terrain with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in spots with 35 kts of effective shear. The Wyoming High Plains will be fighting a cap so biggest question is whether or not convection can sustain itself off of the high terrain. Farther west towards Laramie with the drier boundary layer, impressive inverted-v soundings are forecast with LCL heights near the freezing level and weak boundary level winds supporting dry microburst potential. Similar setup expected Sunday with a dryline along the Laramie Range, but less capping is expected over the High Plains and steeper mid- level lapse rates are in place.
Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Rockies. with a low pressure center off the coast of central California.
327 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020 The low level jet is a bit stronger than the models suggest. The low level jet will redevelop tonight producing at least some additional shower and thunderstorm activity across ncntl Nebraska.
Low temperatures are expected to be above normal in the low 50s to around 60. On Saturday a warm front lifts toward a Yuma to St. the warm front lifts northeast into central Nebraska by the end of the day with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Temperatures respond by moderating 5-8 degrees, with highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated. The main concerns and uncertainties are related to timing/extent of the precipitation by midweek, and how strong will the ridge become or weaken as a series of disturbances move along the northern edge of this ridge.
AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 81 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 58 78 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 57 78 53 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 74 47 77 / 10 0 0 0 0.
The hand drawn analysis at H500 shows a strong downstream blocking trough over eastern NOAM. an amplified ridge along the spine of the Rockies to N. and busy troughing all along the E. The southern closed low is just now moving across the Central Cali coast on it's way to the PacNW where it gets absorbed into the longwave trough through the weekend. The biggest impact to our region from this storm will be to push the ridge axis onto the High Plains and advect a drier and windy pattern into our western CWA for Sunday. We are increasing the mid level flow ever so slightly today as the ridge slides east.
219 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020 Another cooler than normal day on tap as Canadian high pressure settles into the area. High pressure settles over the area tonight with clear skies. The high begins to slide east into the Great Lakes region Sunday, setting up warm air advection over our area. Should also see some increase in high clouds going into the afternoon ahead of a warm front moving northeastward out of the Plains.
259 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon.
Despite the showers, a couple record highs were reached today in the warmer locations of Yavapai County.
A broad upper level trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern CONUS this evening, and the southern extent of this feature is moving over south central/southeast AL and northern FL. Weak upper level ridging meanwhile continues to nose westward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The broad upper level trough will slowly move eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard and adjacent western Atlantic through late Saturday night. Winds aloft become very light over our region on Saturday between the departing upper trough axis and a building upper level ridge over the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains/ArkLaTex. Lows Saturday night will be cooler in the lower to mid 60s over these interior areas, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s over central and southern portions of our forecast area.
We are finally going to say goodbye to this stubborn low pressure system this afternoon. Dry weather will be in place tonight with plenty of sun on Sunday as high pressure builds over the entire eastern CONUS.
331 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020 Early this morning, a broad anticyclone was centered over the southern Canadian Plains downstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward over the next several days, dominating the weather across the middle Mississippi Valley. As the high continue to push eastward, surface winds will gradually transition to the east while the lobe of warm air advection to the west of the high builds into western MO. BSH The anomalously strong upper ridge will build into the central portion of the CONUS as we move into the work week.
A 591 dam anticyclone will move along the spine of the Rockies today. This high will not be going anywhere anytime soon per the models. Do expect your typical diurnal convection to pop off the higher terrain of Colorado. Since the ridge will be nearly overhead, do not expect this activity to progress across the Kansas state line tonight. The above mentioned ridge will sit firmly over the Sunflower state for the next several days and not move. Long range models are still showing the potential for the ridge to flatten out mid week. Lee troughing will continue with SE/S winds increasing via mixing 15-30 kt during the daytime.