Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest flow continues to increase in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere in advance of an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central Plains and another across the Desert Southwest/Baja region. An unseasonably warm and moist southerly to southwesterly low level flow pattern also continues to spread over our region between a ridge of high pressure nosing westward from the western Atlantic into the FL peninsula and a cold front now moving across the ArkLaTex/Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Another round of showers and storms is expected to move west to east across our area this evening ahead of the advancing cold front, but instability should gradually be waning through the evening hours. A cold front will push through the area late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday along with a brief period of near to critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon.
221 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 (Issued 221 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure is gradually building in behind the the exiting low pressure system this afternoon. Cold Air Advection will bring in some cooler temperatures this evening into the overnight hours as the high pressure moves overhead. As high pressure continues to shift east Sunday, winds will shift to southerly and bring in some warmer air.
For tonight and Sunday the Atlantic ridge of high pressure will weaken and move east while a weakening frontal boundary settles into northern Florida.
1128 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Cold front just NW of VCT will continue sweeping S this afternoon ahead of gusty N winds and low CIGs.
/issued 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021/ As of 10:50 AM CST, the cold front is currently proceeding just east of the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area with showers and thunderstorms.
334 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 Discussion/Marine - Rather benign weather expected the next 7 days - We will see skies become partly cloudy tonight in northerly flow behind low pressure which is passing off to the east.
249 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Scattered showers will remain possible through the early overnight hours as a cold front moves east through the area. A shift to northerly flow behind the front will usher in cooler, more seasonable air into the area overnight. Will be under the influence of high pressure on Sunday, as the weak upper wave tied to the aforementioned cold front continues to move over the north Atlantic region.
134 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 * Clearing tonight * Dry and cool weather Sunday and Sunday Night Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure stretching across Ohio. with an associated cold front extending SW across western KY and Western TN. Large and broad high pressure was found across the plains. Radar shows the rain showers associated with the departing front and low pressure system exiting Indiana to the east. GOES16 still shows abundant cloud cover across the state in the wake of the low. Models suggest the upper flow begins to flatten out as the weak trough aloft exits Indiana on Sunday. Within the lower levels strong high pressure is expected to push across Indiana through Sunday night.
A deep layer ridge is centered east of the Bahamas and is providing the area with an east-souteast wind and enhanced moisture. The aforementioned ridge will remain in place today and will continue to pivot moisture into the region. This is because as we go into this afternoon the winds in the lower levels will become increasing south to southwest.
This will be most realized over the eastern portions of our CWA and downslope of the Buffalo Ridge, with winds gusting 35 to near 40 mph. Warmest readings will occur over south central SD into the mid MO River Valley with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Low pressure will slide across southern Canada on Sunday night, pulling a cold front through our area during the night.
This system is going to result in building low pressure/increasing gradient and WAA within building southerly flow later. Initially temperatures should drop rapidly at sunset and we will likely see our lows shortly after before a combination of increasing clouds, WAA, and increasing winds recover temperatures above freezing. As temperatures increase with the winds and highs approach freezing Sunday probabilities may be lower for blowing snow impacts.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Cool/breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front that moved through overnight. Low clouds have begun to spread south into northeast Oklahoma with mid level trough axis still located just northwest of the area. (Tonight through Saturday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Sunday and we will likely see some increasing high clouds from upper low moving over Texas Sunday into Sunday night, especially south of I-40.
1100 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 As of 10:50 AM CST, the cold front is currently proceeding just east of the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area with showers and thunderstorms. /issued 557 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021/ A strong cold front will be passing through the region and bringing inclement weather in the form of gusty northwesterly surface winds from 15 to 25 mph, numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms, and a combination of IFR to MVFR visibility and/or ceiling restrictions. Rainfall will very gradually taper off 3 to 5 hours after the initial heavy rain starts, but the low ceilings may take several more hours to clear between later this afternoon and well into the evening.
An upper trough stretching from the northern plains into the desert southwest was moving east per the 08Z water vapor imagery while another upper wave approached the AK panhandle and British Columbia. Surface observations showed a cold front from the Ozarks into central TX with high pressure centered over eastern MT and pressure rises through the central plains. We will prolong the MVFR CIGS until closer to sunset with some clearing expected as the ridge axis shifts east after 00Z. Meanwhile southerly winds and sunshine are expected to cause warmer temperatures with lower RH values.
959 AM MST Sat Dec 18 2021 Upper air analysis shows weak ridging building into much of the western CONUS, including the Northern Plains. Surface Canadian high pressure is pushing into the Dakotas, with mostly clear skies and winds becoming light. Surface ridging will push eastward this afternoon. A cold front will push through Sunday night, as a low pressure system moves eastward just north of the US/Canadian border.
The maximum in cold advection was found across the eastern Half of the DDC forecast area, as yesterday's cold front had made it's way south into the lower Mississippi valley already. Full insolation today will allow shallow mixing despite the high pressure, however the cold nature of the layer will limit afternoon highs to the 30s over the entire area. Clear sky and dry air will promote the rapid fall off in temperatures this evening - falling back into the low 20s and upper teens by as early as 9 pm. Low single digit lows are possible overnight in the west central counties especially in the lower lying areas of the Ark river valley. The result will be a warmer day over all with more breezy, marginally windy day the farther west one goes.
Clouds continue to decrease from NW to SE as high pressure builds in across the area.
The cold front has cleared south and east of the CWA. Farther west into Edwards and central/northern Val Verde counties, the sub-cloud dry layer is shallower, but initial overall column cooler. However most of the high resolution models and GFS are not showing this. The upper level trough is forecast to eject east Sunday night, with the base of the trough and stronger ascent moving west to east across the CWA late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Some light snow showers or flurries may linger until the deeper moisture and lift associated with the trough, shifts far enough east. At the surface, a ridge is expected to build across northeast Wisconsin overnight, before gradually shifting east through Sunday afternoon, allowing for fairly quiet conditions to end the weekend.
Our coldest night yet is expected overnight tonight into Sunday morning as the upper level trough remains over the area before shifting east on Sunday. Sunday's highs are already expected to be slightly above normal, with each day getting slightly warmer under the building high pressure. As we move later into the week and approach the holiday weekend the high will slowly shift east.
155 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Surface cold front has cleared the forecast area. As chilly high pressure settles over the region from the north, the rest of the short term forecast period will be quiet and chilly.
Pacific moisture and relatively warmer air will be advected in due to the southwest flow aloft. Given the fact that there have been several warm days and nights recently, the roads will likely not be cold enough in most places for accumulation, except for some bridges and locations where colder air gathers the most.
The clouds have kept temperatures a bit warmer in the valleys this morning and will likely keep temperatures a degree or two cooler from yesterdays high temperatures. A weak warm frontal passage this morning brought light snow showers to our northern zones. As the low pressure system shifts southward, moist west- southwesterly flow increases on Sunday.
A shallow upper level trough brought light snow to the region this morning, but has since shifted east of the forecast area. Surface ridging over the eastern Dakotas meanders eastward for tonight and departs by sunrise. The biggest question in the forecast revolves around low-level cloud cover, especially on the backside of the ridge axis. RAP forecast profiles are quite robust on keeping the low clouds around while over solutions are not as bullish. Modest WAA during the day should nudge highs on Sunday back into the low to mid 30s area-wide. -Weak weather systems move through during the week with the impactful snow threat on the low side.
Showers advancing ahead of the approaching cold front will reach the westernmost portions of the forecast area by early Sunday morning along with possible patchy fog forming along the coast and potentially reaching inland during the early AM hours. High temperatures for today will reach up into the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in upper 70s along the coastline.
311 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 A cold front has nearly pushed through the region this afternoon and has resulted in much chillier temperatures compared to reading this morning. The biggest factor for clouds/stratus hanging around through tomorrow will be how much we can mix out the lower boundary layer. Model soundings show a thin layer of moisture trapped near the top of the boundary layer, and it may not be until several hours after sunrise that we see enough mixing to scour out the low clouds and allow for some sunshine. High temperatures will be on the cool side of climatology normals, as temperatures struggle to rise into the low 40s.
1136 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was working its way south across the area. Latest guidance shows a slightly warmer temperature profile, which would support just some light rain through the mid morning hours. Temperatures will be much colder tonight and will range from the upper 20s across the Big Country where less cloud cover will exist, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
Temperatures will remain chilly with highs only warming into the low to mid 40s.
Main concern is with potential for light precipiation, mainly in the north and possibly in form of light freezing rain. Under strong warm advection with the approaching system placing much of western and central ND in the warm sector, any precip that does fall could transition to light freezing rain as temps aloft warm to above freezing. 01" of freezing rain north of the border. Based on soundings and low bias with NBM winds behind a cold front, used a 75% NBM90 and 25% NBM mix for wind and gusts.
High pressure will continue to build at the the surface this evening, as an upper level ridge moves into the Rockies. Temperatures will drop into the lower teens and single digits tonight, as gradually clearing skies aide radiational cooling. A midlevel trough traveling along the southern Canadian border will draw southwesterly flow back into the region, Sunday.
Mild temperatures in the lower to mid 60s will rise a few more degrees and approach 70 in a few spots. A cold front moves through this evening with showers continuing behind the front into tonight.
Low clouds sit to the east of the center of the high across Minnesota and into western Iowa. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s with dew points in the lower to mid 20s.
A period of light snow, sleet, or freezing rain is expected this morning over the northern tier, before temperatures moderate later today.
Tomorrow, highs in the low 50 to mid 50s are anticipated.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night):The cold front is currently working into South Texas and expected to arrive into the northern ranchlands in a few hours, reaching the border early this evening. As the coastal trough sets up, expect continued rain chances through the day on Sunday, especially along the eastern counties. The mid-level trough works east across the state, boosting rain chances Sunday night with moderate to heavy rainfall possible. With thick cloud cover, persistent northerly winds, and precipitation, expect temperatures on Sunday remain generally steady or gradually slip a degree or two cooler during the day.
A strong cold front is pushing through Middle Tennessee at this moment, with temperatures turning sharply cooler behind the boundary. Obviously, tomorrow will be considerably colder than today, and this will help usher in a largely rain-free week across Middle Tennessee as temperatures moderate close to seasonal normals before trending warmer as we get close to Christmas.
730 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 Tha cold front passing through now should dry up the showers, but the colder air coming in behind the departing storm may cause a brief changeover to snow showers and flurries in some areas with little to no accumulation expected.
Upper level low pressure system will continue southward along the Washington coast tonight through Sunday.
This should support highs in the mid 50s or warmer and the temperature forecast leans on the warmer RAP model for highs. This is near the 50th percentile of the NBM but a few degrees cooler than the very warm guidance blend. A back door cold front will begin moving through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday night. Thus, neither tonight nor Sunday night appear to be strong radiational cooling events, especially given the SREF indicates stratus will form along the cold front Sunday night.
Models have had a hard time with these clouds and respective trends, but the expectation is that they will move out this evening/early tonight as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure overhead with light winds and minimal cloud cover will allow temperatures to drop to between 10 to 20 degrees overnight with wind chills down to the single digits in north central and south central Kansas.
A cold front has nearly pushed through the region this afternoon and has resulted in much chillier temperatures compared to reading this morning. The biggest factor for clouds/stratus hanging around through tomorrow will be how much we can mix out the lower boundary layer. Model soundings show a thin layer of moisture trapped near the top of the boundary layer, and it may not be until several hours after sunrise that we see enough mixing to scour out the low clouds and allow for some sunshine. High temperatures will be on the cool side of climatology normals, as temperatures struggle to rise into the low 40s.
The clouds across the north were largely dissipating on the downstream side of the ridge axis extending from southern California to the northern Rockies. Dry zonal flow continues Sunday with a modest ridge building to the west Sunday night.
701 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 Aviation - Rather benign weather expected the next 7 days - We will see skies become partly cloudy tonight in northerly flow behind low pressure which is passing off to the east.
Cold front has moved through the entire area this evening with temperatures now ranging from the mid 50s in the southeast down into the upper 30s in the northwest. An increase in coverage is expected after midnight over our eastern counties as the main upper trough axis moves overhead, with higher pops in that area. Post cold front moisture will keep cigs low this evening with scattered light showers.
849 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 Building high pressure will end residual showers and provide a dry start for the new week. Forecast trend remains on track as the cold front has completed passage across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy and more seasonable day is expected in cold NW flow, with low convective temperature thresholds and a crossing upper trough maintaining a stratocu layer.
A cold front has entered southern middle TN and northwest AL, shifting winds to the northwest with gusts of around 15-17kt at times. Will be under the influence of high pressure on Sunday, as the weak upper wave tied to the aforementioned cold front continues to move over the north Atlantic region.
This will allow for rapidly falling temperatures, bringing the lowest temperatures of the season so far this Fall. Clouds should very slowly erode from the west late tonight as the mid level trough axis slides east of the region. Bowlan (Sunday through Saturday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Sunday and we will likely see some increasing high clouds from upper low moving over Texas Sunday into Sunday night, especially south of I-40.
700 mb temperatures will increase between 6-8 C above today's values meaning high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees F warmer than today. The only weather hazard to mention will be elevated fire danger along and just south of the Cheyenne Ridge tomorrow afternoon. Ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region early to mid week, with generally moderate west/northwest flow prevailing aloft.
* Clearing tonight * Dry and cool weather Sunday and Sunday Night Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure stretching across Ohio. with an associated cold front extending SW across western KY and Western TN. Large and broad high pressure was found across the plains. Radar shows the rain showers associated with the departing front and low pressure system exiting Indiana to the east. GOES16 still shows abundant cloud cover across the state in the wake of the low. Models suggest the upper flow begins to flatten out as the weak trough aloft exits Indiana on Sunday. Within the lower levels strong high pressure is expected to push across Indiana through Sunday night.
540 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 High pressure will continue to filter into the area this evening, so expect CAVOK with moderate to strong and gusty north winds at all sites through 09Z. An approaching trough will bring BKN-OVC skies from west to east across the area and lowering CIGS after 09Z.
The only exception to this will be freezing fog that can form in the valleys during the morning hours. Also, issued a freezing fog advisory for Humboldt county. Current web cameras via NDOT show freezing fog along southern Humboldt along the I-80 corridor. Satellite loop also shows lows clouds and possible freezing fog for the valleys in other locations of the county. Fair weather continues across the silver state for today and Sunday as a ridge slowly drift across the region. The exception to this will be in the formation of freezing fog in the valleys during the morning hours. Freezing fog can cause slick spots on the roads where it does form so use caution if it is encountered. Highs looks to be near to a little above freezing.
410 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 Crossing low pressure will drag a cold front across the region and end precipitation for the start of the new week. Crossing low pressure will pull a cold front acrs the Upr OH later this eve and end the rain. Residual snow showers behind the front will be limited by lack of mixing/cold air depth and dry weather will return with building high pressure on Sunday. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy and more seasonable day is expected in cold NW flow, with low convective temperature thresholds and a crossing upper trough maintaining a stratocu layer.
306 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Late afternoon through Sunday: the strong capping inversion noted previously has helped to erode the convective system as it approaches, and as a result, it is deflecting the most significant convection to a more coastal route - this in spite of the highly anomalous boundary layer warmth/humidity over the forecast area. /EC/ By tomorrow night, the cold frontal boundary will have completely pushed through the region, leaving noticeably cooler temperatures in its wake.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s behind a cold front, with the exception of northeast Mississippi, where temperatures are still in the upper 60s. The latest surface analysis places a 1009mb low pressure system near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with a cold front extending southwest into Parkersburg, West Virginia and back through Jackson, Kentucky and into Tupelo, Mississippi. Expect temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region to begin the workweek.
A warm front--currently (as of 230 pm MST) located from roughly Zortman to Jordan to Cow Creek--will continue to lift its way northward through the area tonight. Temperatures on Sunday should peak around sunrise or so before a cold front moves through the region, exiting the area by noon.
Scattered showers will remain possible through the early overnight hours as a cold front moves east through the area. A shift to northerly flow behind the front will usher in cooler, more seasonable air into the area overnight. Will be under the influence of high pressure on Sunday, as the weak upper wave tied to the aforementioned cold front continues to move over the north Atlantic region.
535 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Tonight into Sunday, an upper-level trough will advance east of the Midwest, promoting large-scale subsidence as mid-level heights rise in its wake. This evolution will cause a surface pressure ridge to shift into the CWA Sunday morning with winds becoming light as the attendant pressure gradient relaxes. Although some areas of stratus may linger overnight/Sunday morning and limit fog development below, confidence was high enough near the ridge axis to include mention of fog across northeastern MO and west-central/south-central IL Sunday morning.
537 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 (The rest of this afternoon ) Cool/breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front that moved through overnight. Low clouds have begun to spread south into northeast Oklahoma with mid level trough axis still located just northwest of the area. (Tonight through Saturday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Sunday and we will likely see some increasing high clouds from upper low moving over Texas Sunday into Sunday night, especially south of I-40.
Surface cold front has cleared the forecast area. As chilly high pressure settles over the region from the north, the rest of the short term forecast period will be quiet and chilly.
513 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Tonight into Sunday, an upper-level trough will advance east of the Midwest, promoting large-scale subsidence as mid-level heights rise in its wake. This evolution will cause a surface pressure ridge to shift into the CWA Sunday morning with winds becoming light as the attendant pressure gradient relaxes. Although some areas of stratus may linger overnight/Sunday morning and limit fog development below, confidence was high enough near the ridge axis to include mention of fog across northeastern MO and west-central/south-central IL Sunday morning.