Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tranquil conditions are likely today through tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure exits the region across the Central Plains giving way to a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains for much of the period. A northwest downslope flow developing behind an advancing lee side trough will draw warmer/drier air through the high plains, in turn raising H85 temperatures well above 0C.
Latest infrared satellite images show scattered cirrus streaming overhead with surface observing sites reporting temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmer underneath clouds. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with the snow covered area reaching into the low to mid 30s and the snow free areas in the mid 30s to low 40s.
1034 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights deep, mean layer ridging centered over Central America which reaches northeast to near Florida. A ridge of high pressure will remain across Florida tonight and Saturday.
945 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Trailing pv anomaly under the mid/upper level trof will pivot eastward across northern Oklahoma near the Kansas border of south central/southeast Kansas overnight. Northern light precipitation is result of upper low axis approaching, with rapid precipitation exit later this evening as axis moves through. Lack of cold air advection and clouds would suggest leaning warmer, while fresh snow would trend cooler. Hedged a couple of degrees cooler in areas with more snow, but for rest of the area with overcast skies hedged to the warmer side of the spread.
1028 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Approaching low pressure will bring rain by Saturday afternoon and evening, with snowflakes mixing in during the night. Warm, moist advection in advance of approaching low pressure will generate clouds, and eventual rain as Saturday afternoon progresses. With the deeper moisture departing later Saturday night, the presence of ice crystals in the clouds will become a bit more questionable, which could lead to some patches of drizzle, some of which may freeze on elevated surfaces in the ridges and I 80 corridor.
Cold front has pushed through the offshore waters this evening. The cold front has moved offshore late this afternoon with MVFR ceilings from 1500-2000 feet prevalent in the post frontal regime across south Texas.
943 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 20z surface analysis had trough from south central Canada into central MT. Water vapour had upper low over KS with weak ridging over the northern Rockies into the northern plains.
Drier and warmer weather will develop through the weekend.
1136 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Scattered to numerous showers in advance of a cold front will impact the terminals overnight and during the morning hours Saturday. The showers will end from northwest to southeast during the morning as the cold front pushes across the area.
845 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
842 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 00Z NAM12 is in good agreement with the previous 12/18Z GFS/ECM/NAM models showing an upper ridge building into the Oregon Coastline through Saturday. This should keep light winds and sunny skies across all zones tomorrow afternoon after pockets of morning freezing fog.
Cold front currently lies right along the TN/GA state line. Don't anticipate conditions improving anytime soon since we are in a slightly cooler airmass behind the front along with a strengthening inversion. Warm front will begin to lift north through the area later tonight and into tomorrow morning which should help to improve visibilites as southerly winds begin to increase temperatures by late morning. Precip headed this way, with west-to-east warm front near TN/GA stateline, forecast to slowly lift northward.
This was thanks to an upper level low moving across the region. The low is expected to be east of the area, dragging the drizzle and cloud cover with it through this morning. This may allow for a very brief period of freezing drizzle across areas of Southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas and potentially some flurries or light snow for central Missouri. With clear skies tonight, along with light winds, temperatures will call to around the the freezing mark.
Water vapor shows KS upper low slowly shifting southeast away from the area with remnant cloud cover also slowing eroding from northwest to southeast this morning.
Clouds are expected to clear out from west to east this afternoon as the upper level trough that brought this precipitation moves east of the area. Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures on the cool side in the mid 40s but that'll still be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
The latest surface analysis places a cold front from northeast Mississippi southwest into the ArkLaMiss. To the south, temperatures were slightly warmer with readings in the lower 50s. Latest GOES low level water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper level low currently rotating over northern Missouri. This low is expected to swing eastward today. Clouds are expected to clear overnight with lows falling to near freezing across the majority of the area Sunday morning.
600 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Clouds should eventually clear as the last of the stratus moves out of the area as the mid-level trough axis continues to move east. Light return southwest flow and remaining clouds have helped keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast. Moderating temperatures are still expected today with highs near 50 to the mid 50s, with the cooler temperatures more likely in our south where snow is still on the ground. Sunday still looks like our warmest day of the forecast with highs in the upper 50s to near 60, before a cold front comes through and cools things off.
/issued 348 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The cold front has clear through the RGV early this morning with all surface obs from around the region indicating solid northerly winds with decent CAA and drier air pushing into the region. The surface ridging after the front will continue spreading southwards today and tonight with light to moderate northerly low level flow continuing. The surface ridging will then shift steadily eastwards on Sun allowing for a return to a more southerly low level flow later this weekend resulting in increasing WAA.
Increased temperatures slightly both today and tomorrow as 850 temperatures have increased and trended toward the warmer guidance for surface temperatures. However the GFS and ECMWF have kept a similar track of the Low, but still about 100 miles difference between the exact placement. That being said forecaster confidence has increased slightly as to the general location of the Low.
449 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 (Today and Tonight) Enhanced radiational cooling (due to mostly clear skies and light winds) early this morning is resulting in 4 am temperatures across West Central Texas having dipped into the low to mid 30s in many locations. Highs today should be warmer than yesterday with the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthening a little, so expect highs in the low 60s in the Big Country and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
507 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Clouds should eventually clear as the last of the stratus moves out of the area as the mid-level trough axis continues to move east. Light return southwest flow and remaining clouds have helped keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast. Moderating temperatures are still expected today with highs near 50 to the mid 50s, with the cooler temperatures more likely in our south where snow is still on the ground. Sunday still looks like our warmest day of the forecast with highs in the upper 50s to near 60, before a cold front comes through and cools things off.
The first such wave is noted over North Dakota early this morning, expected to cross the region by midday with maybe just a little jet-helped cirrus, though that feature will also drag a warm front through the area - a bonus for Sunday's temperatures. Temperatures look warmer for sure today, with Sunday likely the warmest day (well into the 40s) given a deeper layer west to southwesterly wind flow, though will have to watch some thicker mid/high clouds rolling east through the day.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The cold front has clear through the RGV early this morning with all surface obs from around the region indicating solid northerly winds with decent CAA and drier air pushing into the region. The surface ridging after the front will continue spreading southwards today and tonight with light to moderate northerly low level flow continuing. The surface ridging will then shift steadily eastwards on Sun allowing for a return to a more southerly low level flow later this weekend resulting in increasing WAA.
424 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2019 Mild NW split flow will persist through Sunday before a pattern change ensues and colder air settles into the region, as Gulf of Alaska ridging will develop, supporting downstream western/central NOAM troughing. Deeper/stronger wave will push into the northern Rockies Sunday night and split with the main upper trough digging into the SW CONUS, while the northern counterpart tracks across ND.
/issued 449 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Enhanced radiational cooling (due to mostly clear skies and light winds) early this morning is resulting in 4 am temperatures across West Central Texas having dipped into the low to mid 30s in many locations. Highs today should be warmer than yesterday with the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthening a little, so expect highs in the low 60s in the Big Country and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
The high clouds that are dirtying up the short wave ridge this weekend are associated with a closed upper low that this morning was located around 800 miles WSW of San Diego.
436 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Current surface analysis places low over northern Ontario with a trough dropping southwestward into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places weak trough pushing through Ontario into the upper midwest, while a compact low scoots from the southern/central plains into the lower midwest.
The upper level flow pattern is similar to today's, but with slightly cooler low level thermal profile. High temperature today should reach the low 40s, in western MN, to the mid 50s, west of the Missouri River. An area of low pressure will pass well north and east of the region tonight. Low level thermal profiles are slightly warmer on Sunday with highs likely reaching the 50s for most locations. When the period opens, got a cold frontal passage is occurring.
This is a deep closed low, and the guidance has not been very consistent these last two days on its evolution as it progresses eastward into Idaho. The southerly wind ahead of this low will bring the warmest temperatures on Sun, despite the increase in cloudiness. Temperatures come crashing down Mon/Mon night with the trough passage, temperatures in the Snake River plain likely not making it to 40 deg F. Wind will also accompany this cold front and associated upper level trough, and could approach Wind Advisory levels. The closed low itself moves onshore and brings precipitation, but it coudl arrive anywhere from Wed through Fri. Closed lows are notorious slow-movers, and usually computer guidance is too fast in moving a closed low, so would think it is more likely Thanksgiving Day through Fri, but cannot rule out a Wed arrival.
The strong low and mid level height gradients continue, thus the high wind warning continues for our wind prone locations, with breezy to windy conditions elsewhere. The flow aloft backs to west northwest, with the low level gradients relaxing, thus ending the high wind threat.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Ontario with a trough dropping southwestward into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places weak trough pushing through Ontario into the upper midwest, while a compact low scoots from the southern/central plains into the lower midwest.
Highs will generally be in the lower 70s today and in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. Tonight will be on the cooler side with lows dipping into the mid 40s to lower 50s under a light northerly flow.
A lee trough to our west will form a weak depression and move southeast during the morning hours resulting in westerly winds. Sunday's highs will be a few degrees warmer with highs around 20C.
It may take a bit longer to see clouds decrease across the CWA until the main upper trough axis to the west moves east across the state by sometime this afternoon. High pressure will then settle across the region by tonight.
This low pressure system will move northeast, lifting the main swath of rain up across the Cumberland Plateau through mid morning. But, lots of low level moisture will remain in place as a mid/upper level trough moves overhead later today and tonight. Chilly air will accompany the trough with many areas not climbing out of the 40s to lower 50s today. The departing trough will allow skies to become partly sunny from west to east. It will still be cooler than normal with highs in the low to mid 50s.
322 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 A weak trough and associated frontal boundary will continue to move eastward into the region today. Highs will climb into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday continues to be dry, and even warmer with zonal flow, bringing mild conditions.
318 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
347 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Water vapor shows KS upper low slowly shifting southeast away from the area with remnant cloud cover also slowing eroding from northwest to southeast this morning.
Overnight lows for Sunday are forecast within the range of the lower 40s over the Hill Country to upper 40s across the Rio Grande Plains.
IFR ceilings continue at all sites this morning behind the cold front, with northwest winds around 10-12 kts.
With the exit of the upper level cyclone, a calmer weather pattern will set in place for the next couple days.
516 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 A weak trough and associated frontal boundary will continue to move eastward into the region today. Highs will climb into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday continues to be dry, and even warmer with zonal flow, bringing mild conditions.
Warm Again Today, But Turning Cooler Sunday. Cold front that will move through the area overnight tonight and into Sunday is currently analyzed near Huntsville, Alabama extending down through New Orleans and into the Gulf of Mexico. Well out ahead of this front, a warm S/SSW flow will allow temperatures to climb into the low 80s. Low level SW flow increases further ahead of the rapidly approaching cold front.
Temperatures will be dropping this evening however, as the colder air moves in behind the cold front. Winds will be shifting to the west, behind the cold front that will be moving west to east through the area this afternoon and this evening. Will have just a slight chance PoP from 12-16Z in the higher elevations.
/issued 921 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019/ Clouds dissipating across the region as ridging aloft becomes established. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday which saw mid 70s to near 80. IFR ceilings continue at all sites this morning behind the cold front, with northwest winds around 10-12 kts.
An upper level low continues to move slowly across the region. As the upper low moves east of the region tonight, skies will start to clear. Temperatures will be on the chilly side tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s.
1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 Increasing chances for rainfall through this evening as a cold front moves through the region. Cold front moving into western Ga at 18z. Upper level low over the mid Mississippi Valley moving east. Temps in the Low 50s near the NC border north of the front. Deep lift associated with upper level divergence will increase across the region early this evening as upper level low over the mid Mississippi Valley moves into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Strong 850mb jet streak 40 to possibly 60 kts in advance of the cold front this evening should transport deeper moisture into the area. Sunday will be cooler behind the front, with readings in the mid to upper 50s.
Visible satellite is making it challenging to observe the stratus and fog with the higher clouds above. Although trends are suggesting an improving trend for lifting the low level cloud deck.
A trough over the Great Lakes region supports a cold front that will move across the northern Gulf Coast tonight and will affect the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower to middle 80s with dew points in the mid 60s. GOES-East visible imagery indicates partly cloudy skies across the Lower and Middle Keys and Gulf waters, with isolated fair weather cumulus along the Upper Keys. Key West radar is tracking isolated light showers along and just north of this convergence line, with areas of isolated showers across the Lower Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas. Model guidance suggests a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers Sunday morning ahead of the cold front.
A quiet short term is expected as the winds aloft continue out of the northwest and high pressure continues to build in eastern Colorado. For tonight with the high pressure moving in from Colorado, light winds, and clear skies. overnight lows should range from the lower 20s in the west to the upper 20s in the east. Sunday as the high moves east winds will switch to the west/southwest and temperatures in the 850 mb levels will warm to 10-11 (C).
Surface temperatures should remain just warm enough given cloud cover to avoid a freezing rain threat with any rain that can reach the ground. For Sunday, a cold front will enter western North Dakota during the late morning and early afternoon, and propagate east through the day. Strong west-northwest winds behind the cold front are favored, especially west of the Missouri River. As expected uncertainty is rather high as pre-existing upper level troughing is forecast across the southwest CONUS ahead of the arrival of the upper level wave which could signal a favoring of a more southerly track within the envelope of solutions across the plains.
The clouds will begin to clear tomorrow but highs will still only be in the lower to middle 50s.
Models hinting at some sprinkle activity, but model soundings still looking too dry in the lowest levels of the atmosphere to allow the rain to make it to the ground. Above normal temps are expected for the entire area, with highs mainly in the lower and middle 40s.
Forecast confidence is high: Broad troughing will be in place for tonight through Sunday. Best chance for a quick sprinkle would be Sunday afternoon into evening if the low levels end up more saturated than expected.
The big question is how far south the wave will dig as it arrives onto the Pacific coast with pre-existing troughing in place ahead of its arrival, and how the track evolves from there (i. Current surface analysis places low over northern Ontario with a trough dropping southwestward into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places weak trough pushing through Ontario into the upper midwest, while a compact low scoots from the southern/central plains into the lower midwest.
942 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
1021 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 A trough over the Great Lakes region supports a cold front that will move across the northern Gulf Coast today and will affect the Keys Sunday and Sunday night. GOES-East visible imagery indicates partly cloudy skies across the Lower and Middle Keys and Gulf waters, with isolated fair weather cumulus along the Upper Keys. Key West radar is tracking isolated light showers within ahead of this convergence line, with areas of isolated showers across the Lower Keys. Model guidance suggests a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers Sunday morning ahead of the cold front.
1041 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2019 Mild NW split flow will persist through Sunday before a pattern change ensues and colder air settles into the region, as Gulf of Alaska ridging will develop, supporting downstream western/central NOAM troughing. Deeper/stronger wave will push into the northern Rockies Sunday night and split with the main upper trough digging into the SW CONUS, while the northern counterpart tracks across ND.
/issued 1124 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019/ Upper level low continues to pivot east over the mid MS Valley with wrap-around low cloud cover slowly shifting east along and north of the Red River Valley of NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas.
Upper level trough across the midwest will track eastward across the Ohio Valley tonight. As this occurs, a cold front will continue to push through the southeast. Lows will be much cooler tonight for most of the area with lows in the 40s, except for the lower 50s across Dixie County.
Southeasterly winds across the region will continue to veer becoming southerly and southwesterly ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Temperatures today will be able to rise into the low to mid 80s across the area. Sunday, a weak cold front will be moving down the Florida Peninsula and current timing has the front moving through South Florida sometime in the afternoon/evening timeframe. There will be a slight chance of showers ahead of and along the cold front. Drier and cooler air will begin to filter behind the front Sunday night.
Axis of H5 trough of low pressure will pass overhead this evening, then NW flow will keep light precip chances in over the area, but especially the upslope portions of higher elevations. as cold air moves in, we may see the dwindling rain switch to light freeznig rain or snow at the highest elevations but not expecting consequential accumulations.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 39 55 36 / 100 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 38 52 35 / 100 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 38 53 35 / 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 36 48 31 / 100 50 10 0.
143 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2019 20z surface analysis had lee trough in place from southern AB into eastern WY. Water vapour had northwest flow over the northern plains as ridge shrinks off the west coast. Tonight, low level downslope flow continues which will keep temperatures on the north through east foothills of the Black Hills a bit warmer than guidance overnight.
Web cams and surface observations across the region indicated visibilities dropping after sunrise with many areas of dense fog and freezing fog.
1041 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 A weak trough and associated frontal boundary will continue to move eastward into the region today. Highs will climb into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday continues to be dry, and even warmer with zonal flow, bringing mild conditions.
Fair weather continues through this weekend with light northerly winds, relatively lower dew points, and mostly clear skies, as we sit comfortably under high pressure. As this high shifts east, our winds respond by shifting back out of the south, slowing increasing moisture.
Light rain and snow showers will spread over northern areas mid-day Sunday as a cold front passes through from NW to SE. Windy and cooler in all areas Sunday afternoon behind the front.
Upper level low continued to exit off to the east late this morning with the remaining light drizzle/snow flurries having moved out of far Northwest Arkansas. Cloud cover associated with the backside of the low still resided over much of the CWA with the rear edge just west of Highway 75/Indian Nations Turnpike in Eastern Oklahoma. cloud cover should continue to push off to the east and southeast as the upper low makes its way toward the Ohio River Valley.
The upper level low responsible for our last cold front and rain is currently lifting across the Midwest, leaving zonal flow beginning to flow across much of the far southern CONUS. Split flow is apparent across the west and and upper level low is deepening well off the SOCAL coast. This low will begin to impact the split flow across the west, slowly closing it off.
214 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 Low pressure is situated across central KY. The trailing cold front is currently across far NW GA. Another night of above normal temps tonight, but it will still be cooler than previous nights.