Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and hot will be the words for the day, as high pressure will build over the region.
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure over Kentucky keeping the weather quiet and skies mostly clear. They all depict fairly fast flow through the Ohio Valley on the southern fringes of a very broad trough.
The upper level ridge is forecast to expand slightly over the region through the weekend, and rain chances look too low to mention on Saturday.
1059 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
Greatest threat overnight will lie north/west of I-4 closer to deeper moisture and trough over the northeast Gulf. Also, as stated in previous AFD, upper trough will retreat northward.
A few isolated showers have developed along a pre-frontal trough across western North Dakota. Tonight, a cold front will swing through western and central North Dakota. The main area of forcing for widespread precipitation will follow behind the cold front and arrive early Saturday morning west and mid morning central.
/Issued 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ The mid level ridge will build in over South Texas through Saturday with subsidence keep us mostly dry. With mid level ridging in place, temperatures will be a degree or two higher on Saturday, with heat indices 105-114.
Because of the higher than normal confidence and the approaching weekend, collaborated with PSR to issue an Excessive Heat Warning for Tue and Wed.
529 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 West northwest flow is continuing across the region today, becoming more zonal as an upper low slides through Alberta. A strong upper wave will cross Montana late tonight into Saturday morning, with a cold front pushing through the northern High Plains.
High pressure at the surface remains in control of the weather across the Southeastern U.
739 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. Evening satellite and radar loops showing scattered convection from the central mountains into northeast Pa in advance of mid level trough. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A few isolated showers have developed along a pre-frontal trough across western North Dakota. Tonight, a cold front will swing through western and central North Dakota. The main area of forcing for widespread precipitation will follow behind the cold front and arrive early Saturday morning west and mid morning central.
A satellite- depicted trough axis is sliding acrs the region without much effect other than popping some cumulus and isolated showers.
Synoptically speaking, the lower level ridge will lift a bit further north through the overnight period, maintaining a light, predominantly southeasterly flow. A ridge axis near the Keys is maintaining generally light southeasterly flow. At the same time, the ridge axis will lift a bit further northward and will eventually reassert a light southeasterly flow across all Keys waters.
An additional update was issued to remove previous isolated shra as the trough axis has about completed passage without much effect.
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. This lines up nicely in an area of weak low level convergence under a thermal trough in the mid levels. The location of the enhanced forcing and ill- defined warm front will favor the potential for scattered strong to severe storms over the Northern Mountains. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
853 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 The cold front passage still looks to occur starting near Judith Gap around midnight, and cross over SE Montana from the northwest and reach Ekalaka by 5 am, bringing gusts up to 25 mph. The associated cold front is expected to come in from the N/NW late this evening (frontal passage at Billings around Midnight). So the highest PoP's are from the Treasure County eastward, with PoP's trending lower to the south and west. Much of this exits to the E/SE by afternoon, but some isolated to scattered instability showers remain a possibility in the afternoon, especially over the high country in the west. Look for much cooler highs on Saturday.
921 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 High pressure is responsible for the drier and slightly more pleasant air in place over the TN Valley region. Overall, previous forecast looks to be on track as dew points have dropped into the 60s and temps are in the low to mid 70s.
In addition, the low-level inversion is expected to strength.
Thickness increases tomorrow will allow temps to be slightly warmer than today with the same story continuing through Sunday.
The cold front has entered far northwest North Dakota. A few isolated showers have developed along a pre-frontal trough across western North Dakota. Tonight, a cold front will swing through western and central North Dakota. The main area of forcing for widespread precipitation will follow behind the cold front and arrive early Saturday morning west and mid morning central. A cold front will move across western and central ND late tonight through Saturday afternoon.
Additional convection will develop along/ahead of an advancing cold front across Iowa toward midnight.
148 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 An upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan, and upper flow is nearly zonal over the northern plains. At the surface, the cold front is approaching from the northwest. The cold front will cross the CWA today. Besides cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds, showers and thunderstorms will follow the front. Highs today will range from the 60s across the northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD.
The upper-level ridge and high pressure has a hold back on South Texas. Heat indices will be slightly higher, ranging from 105 to near 115 degrees, across South Texas today with the highest heat index values across the southern Coastal Bend and Plains.
A strong cold front is working through the area early this morning, with showers and isolated thunderstorms building in behind it. The upper level ridge will continue through the early week before we transition to a zonal flow late in the week with the passing of a low to our north.
High pressure is responsible for the drier and slightly more pleasant air in place over the TN Valley region. Overall, previous forecast looks to be on track as dew points have dropped into the 60s and temps are in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler (relatively speaking), topping out in the middle 90s. Moisture will begin increasing on Sunday, making for Heat Index Values actually higher on Sunday, despite the 'cooler' temps. Morning lows will fall into the lower 70s Sunday morning as moisture increases.
Storms developed about as expected around midnight, as parcels saturated with isentropic upglide and a boost from the low level.
A low amplitude upper level trough extends from the upper Gulf coast and Apalachee Bay north to the Tennessee River Valley. The air mass over southeast Georgia starts to dry out a bit with the highest PWATs of 2. The flattened upper trough pattern continues through the day with some drying over Georgia with PWATs of 1.
Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible south of the Arkansas river while temperatures will be a little cooler further north (low to mid 90s).
The main story is that an upper-level ridge located over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will build into west Texas through the weekend. Tomorrow, temperatures at 850mb will be right around 26 degrees C, with abundant sunshine under the building ridge.
A mostly dry cold front stalled over central Utah will dissipate this evening. High pressure will build over the area beginning Sunday, resulting in warmer temperatures to start the week. Infrared satellite imagery this evening shows a persistent band of clouds stretching across central NV and central UT associated with a weak surface boundary and modest 700MB boundary at the southern edge of a baggy Western US trough.
1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Skies tonight are mostly clear across South Central Texas, and VFR conditions should continue through the period at all terminals thanks to high pressure overhead. The upper level ridge is forecast to expand slightly over the region through the weekend, and rain chances look too low to mention on Saturday.
1128 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
329 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
Slightly more convection than yesterday developing over the higher terrain this afternoon as upper forcing is stronger with wave moving by to the north. Deep instability lies along and east of a line from just east of Colorado Springs to east of Pueblo to near Clayton NM as of 21z, with CAPE in the 1000-3000 J/KG range as dewpoints have held in the lower 60s near the KS border.
The heat will continue to be a concern into the early part of the upcoming week before possible pattern shift that could bring cooler temperatures and rain chances back to the area.
437 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, with high pressure sitting over the region, VFR conditions will prevail through the day. /Issued 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ The mid level ridge will build in over South Texas through Saturday with subsidence keep us mostly dry. With mid level ridging in place, temperatures will be a degree or two higher on Saturday, with heat indices 105-114.
A protective ridge and relatively dry air mass should continue to keep dry conditions in place across most of the forecast area. Meager cape and some orographic lift may be just enough to allow an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop over the higher terrain along the Tennessee and North Carolina border this afternoon. Mid August insolation and dewpoint temperatures in the 60s will result in another very warm afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s north to the lower and middle 90s south.
Low level ridging could help suppress thunderstorm development S of I 80, with more isolated than scattered coverage expected. A trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track from the Upper Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes regions by mid week, when the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Surface to 700mb ridging will be in place just to the east of the area and temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s again today. Coverage will likely be fairly limited as Arkansas continues to find itself near surface ridging just to the east and upper level ridging to the southwest.
where the low level jet should help flare up the convection further as it exits the local area during the very early morning hours Saturday. There then should be a notable break in thunderstorm chances during the daytime hours Saturday with partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures there will be some adiabatic compression ahead of the next front which will bring another chance for severe weather to the local area Saturday night. Expect a cold front to cross northern Nebraska Saturday night. expect cooler temperatures along with a transition in the upper level flow. which will result in a ridge building back over the plains to start the new work week.
The fact that the convection has held on this long will limit the lower atmosphere from recovering sufficiently to set up the possibility for severe weather later tonight. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the High Plains later tonight as well as along and near the surface frontal boundary but severe potential. the upper level flat ridge will begin to build into the area once again and push the mid-latitude storm track northward once again.
high pressure throughout the column will dominate the region with warming temperatures and increasing humidly. Temperatures will warm into the low and mid 90s both days and coupled with afternoon dewpoints of 72-75F heat advisories may be needed in the Delta.
Scattered thunderstorms are still expected the middle of the week as a the next cold front sags due south across most of KS.
237 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A persistent storm system will bring warmer temperatures and scattered storms to the region this weekend. Heat and humidity will also be on the rise with moist return flow in the low levels.
/NF/ Today through Tonight: The subtropical ridge will maintain relatively dry deep layer air over much of the ArkLaMiss today with precipitable water values less than 1.
418 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 An upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan, and upper flow is nearly zonal over the northern plains. At the surface, the cold front is approaching from the northwest. The cold front will cross the CWA today. Besides cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds, showers and thunderstorms will follow the front. Highs today will range from the 60s across the northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD.
A cold front is expected to move into the area during the evening. The cold front will move through the forecast area by Sunday morning.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s. Additional convection will develop along/ahead of an advancing cold front across Iowa toward midnight.
A cold front passage will break down the ridge around mid week resulting in a period of dry and breezy conditions.
The drier conditions within the realm of high pressure across the Great Valley should keep vfr flight operations going today and tonight.
Weak upper low over northeast Gulf of Mexico helping to trigger large area of rain and t-storms across eastern Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the quasi-stationary cold front across the central Georgia area winds over the coastal waters will increase to Small Craft exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria and may approach Small Craft Advisories (SCA) over the offshore waters by Sunday.
403 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Today through Tonight: The subtropical ridge will maintain relatively dry deep layer air over much of the ArkLaMiss today with precipitable water values less than 1.
A ridge of high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain a light and occasional moderate onshore flow through the weekend and well into the new week.
The erosion of the Four Corners ridge has allowed mid-level heights to lower over northern California. Valley highs will range from the mid/upper 80s Sacramento southward to the low 90s over the northern Sacramento Valley.
309 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Main forecast challenge revolves around the current and ongoing rain showers accompanying the recent cold front which moved through the region last night. By early Sunday morning, the pronounced upper-level trough responsible for the cold front this weekend, will have moved east of our region, and will be replaced by a warm westerly to north- westerly flow aloft, along with persistently drier conditions for most of the remainder of the forecast. As the broad high pressure ridge builds northward over those next several days, it seems that models are showing some days will be noticeably hotter here in northeast Montana than others.
However farther south across much of the rest of east central Florida, enough sunshine is expected to allow temperatures to reach the low 90s leading to greater daytime instability. 7 inches, but models indicate there should be some additional moistening in the low level southwest flow through the afternoon. A gentle to moderate S-SW breeze today weakens and backs slightly tonight as the ridge axis begins to lift north into the local waters south of Sebastian Inlet.
These conditions will be shortlived however, as warm and dry high pressure develops over the region on Sunday. Modest afternoon instability acting on mid- level moisture may support a few high based thunderstorms in Lemhi County and Southwest Montana, thus slight chance Pops were added to the higher terrain.
144 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The weather system that brought much cooler temperatures to the region today and precipitation to northern portions of central and north-central Montana will exit the region for clearing skies this evening. Much warmer and drier conditions develop Sunday and persists through much of the upcoming week as a high pressure ridge gets re-established across the western United States. Upper level ridging builds into the Northern Rockies and MT Sunday for a quick rebound in temperatures with most locations returning to seasonally warm conditions by Sunday afternoon.
By mid-week, the passage of a cold frontal boundary across eastern Washington will break down the ridge and result in a period of dry and breezy conditions.
1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Upper ridging to the east of the state will keep dry and warm conditions in place. Surface to 700mb ridging will be in place just to the east of the area and temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s again today. Coverage will likely be fairly limited as Arkansas continues to find itself near surface ridging just to the east and upper level ridging to the southwest.
/ISSUED 332 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015/ OPEN TROUGH POISED JUST WEST OF THE LOWER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK TO REACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON COMPLETE WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 700 MB. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY LOOK TO LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE OVERALL BRUNT OF GRADIENT WINDS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GARNER DEEPER MIXING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE FAR SW PANHANDLE ON PAR WITH THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS. THESE WAVES WILL HELP TO DISLODGE A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTH PAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
259 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WHILE LOCALES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 30S.
WIDESPREAD RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR SUN THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE COOLER MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR NEXT SAT. SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS ~03Z & SC KS THIS EVE BUT LOWEST ~5,000FT OF AIRMASS QUITE DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN 800HPA TROUGH SITUATED IN CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO A VERY SHALLOW NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT DRAMATICALLY COLDER BUT TEMPERATURES DO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A PATTERN RECENTLY OF THE MODELS OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE/SINKING MOTION AND NEARLY CALM WIND AT THE SURFACE AFTER HAVING BEEN NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED A BIT COOLER WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG THE LONGEST. A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND, WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND IN RESPONSE IT WILL BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE.
306 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER MINS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY NT. GIVEN JUST THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE WILL SEE 60 DEGREES OR WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A weather system is off the coast with warm front moving through today. The warm front may produce some light showers from Tehama County northward today. The cold front will move inland late tonight and Sunday morning. The higher totals are expected from around Plumas County northward.
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND LGT E-SE WINDS. A FEW INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FOG/FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN NRN LA AND SW/SRN AR.
1245 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
1017 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BY LATE MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY. THE UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE STATE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
314 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND.
15Z OBS SHOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ALTHOUGH THIS IS IN LINE WITH INHERITED GRIDS. AREA IS UNDER A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TROFFING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN UPPER TROF/LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY.
A weak cold front will move through the area Sunday morning, with light north winds behind it. A cold front will start to turn southerly winds to the west and northwest by the end of the TAF period. A few locations, have fallen into the 30s, including KJCT, which is sitting at freezing as of 3 AM. Tonight, with the increased moisture, lows will be warmer than normal again, falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
/ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015/ CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND LGT E-SE WINDS.
High pressure at the surface and a weak ridge aloft should keep the region dry through at least midday Sunday. Precipitation chances make their way into our CWA Sunday afternoon as a short wave pushes/pulls a cold front across the region. Beyond that high pressure will keep the region dry through the remainder of the short term period. The overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a deepening trough over the western states and an amplifying ridge over the east.
THE FORECAST HOURLY TEMPERATURE WAS TRENDING BELOW CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE HAS CLEARED THOSE AREAS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND BIT CLOUDIER GFS SOLUTION (AND WITH THE ECMWF NUMBER COMING IN. THE COOLER ECMWF).
CONTINUED SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
ALLOWING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO MIX TO THE GROUND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS WELL AS LIFT OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FRONTOGENESIS PEAKS BY MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FOLLOWING THE BASE OF THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY THE EARLY EVENING FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT WEAKENS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT ENE THRU THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE CWA.
PERHAPS A REFLECTION OF SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.