Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of low pressure currently over southwest ND will slide eastward some tonight. This system will leave behind a trailing cold front which should be draped east, west across the region. With a developing low pressure system over western South Dakota on Monday, the cold front should lift northward as a warm front with temps climbing into the 40s for most of this CWA. The GFS shows the warm front along the ND/SD border with sharp temperature contrast. If the front stalls over this CWA then temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees cooler. H7 theta- e progs also show a nice theta-e ridge traversing the region, and even becoming somewhat of a trowal by later Tuesday as the system exits into MN.
105 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure will move in from the west today, then move offshore later tonight and Monday. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday, then move north of the region Tuesday. CAA will continue overnight with lows generally above freezing (mid 30s) NW, ranging into the 40s in the SE. Flow aloft will become quasi-zonal flow in the wake of upper trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic region.
410 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure off the coast will bring milder air up from the south through the middle of the week.
1008 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017 Weak upper ridging is shifting over the Rockies and into the northern plains, while an upper low spins off the Pacific Northwest. Upper flow will become zonal tonight as upper low moves inland.
Showers will diminish tonight as an upper level low dissipates over Oregon this evening. An upper trough will move across Washington Monday afternoon and evening.
Last vestiges of the trough axis from this system produced a few areas of light snow across portions of our CWA. but is now moving east out of our area with the trough axis. leaving all of Michigan high and dry for today and this evening as the ridge axis slides thru our state. Low level flow will shift to the south today on the backside of the ridge axis. High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 40s across our southern CWA. Chances of precip will begin to increase late tonight in advance of low pressure developing over the Central Plains and moving NE toward the Great Lakes region. which will quickly change over to plain rain on Tuesday as the above freezing surface based warm layer surges northward thru our CWA.
The lower levels slowly are saturating, and we will see some light rains by daybreak and continuing through the morning hours.
1252 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania tonight, then off the east coast Monday.
/issued 931 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ Warm front as of 03z was located near a Sulphur Springs. lowered temps a degree or two as fcst mins had either already been reached or were close to being reached compared to the warm sector south of the warm front across the southern two thirds of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana. This trough will open up in the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas towards sunrise. most of the rainfall has remained near and to the north of the I-30 corridor but as we go through the remainder of the night and as the trough from the northwest nears, we should begin to see this more scattered to numerous precip coverage move south and east towards the I-20 corridor of Northeast Texas into Northern Louisiana.
MVFR conditions will be developing later tonight as a warm front lifts north and low level moisture increases from the south.
148 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 The upper level flow in the atmosphere shifts to southwesterly tonight ahead of a developing trough of low pressure near the west coast of the country. On Monday the trough slowly moves east but remains well west of the rockies. Looking at readings in the low teens west to low 20s east.
The main forecast concerns are precipitation type and QPF amounts late Monday night, and into Tuesday which will have some impact on travel if freezing precipitation develops. Neither the GFS/EC doesn't support a lot of QPF Monday night/Tuesday morning when temperatures are close to the freezing mark. The forecast will continue to support a mixture of freezing precipitation/snow in areas where the depth of the moisture is greatest in central Minnesota.
A stalled out frontal boundary will keep cooler temperatures in place across central Kansas on Tuesday, and much warmer temperatures will build across southern Kansas.
High pressure over the area this morning will slide east by evening as low pressure approaches from the plains.
A strong upper low is located in western Oregon this evening, and it's moving southeast. Up to an inch of snow has fallen with the stronger showers in the lower elevations of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this evening. Confidence in seeing the higher number materialize is low at this time because of the showery nature of the precipitation, so will not change the forecast. The Alaskan trough producing the surrounding snowfall has weakened a bit since coming on shore, but may still bring low advisory amounts across the northern zones. Wind associated with the leading edge of the trough will weaken as the trough progresses eastward through the afternoon evening hours.
1250 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure will push off the East Coast through Monday. The high will remain over the Atlantic through the middle of the week with the forecast area under its western periphery.
233 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Chilly temperatures this morning will quickly rebound this week as a warm front lifts north, leading to near record high temperatures by mid-week.
352 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough now over the Pacific Northwest will swing southeastward over the Central Rockies through tonight with the nearly zonal flow aloft over the forecast area backing to the southwest. Skies will clear from west to east over the area this morning as the 850mb thermal ridge builds over the area from the southwest. As surface winds veer to the southwest and skies clear, afternoon temperatures will be boosted into the lower 80s, around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. For tonight, morning lows will be in the 50s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal.
1144 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 High pressure centered over West Virginia will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Monday.
Showers should develop Monday night due to a northeast moving warm front, and weak support aloft. So expect a lull in the activity even into the early to mid afternoon, with otherwise breezy and warmer weather.
243 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Showers and thunderstorms pushing east across northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and extreme north Louisiana at this time due to enhanced low-level warm advection in the vicinity of a warm front.
Min temps will be in the lower to mid 40s inland areas and mid to upper 50s along the panhandle coast. This will amplify the ridge over the southeast and should keep convection to our north, save for a slight chance (20%) in the morning in SE AL. As high pressure builds, we'll see clearing skies and highs rising into the 80s across the area.
with rainfall amounts likely to be less than a tenth of inch due to the low level dry air. This wave will quickly traverse into the lower Mississippi Valley by this evening. By Monday night, a warm front will begin to lift northward across the area. Concurrently, a broad longwave trof will swing across the central U. Deep layer shear and plenty of instability will continue to fuel strong and severe thunderstorms through the overnight hours as the trof takes on a positive tilt and swings into the Mississippi Valley.
Lows tonight should be in the lower to mid 40s over most interior areas within the driest airmass, and in the lower to mid 50s near the immediate coast and beaches.
High pressure ridge will be Northeast of the region this morning, with onshore flow providing an increase in moisture, and moderating temperatures. The combination of a warm front lifting North across the region this afternoon, and a short wave trough pivoting through, will lead to the development of showers with embedded thunderstorms This Afternoon into Tonight. well above normal temps expected with the area on west side of mean layer ridging pumping warm and increasingly moist conditions in the low levels.
1251 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure over the region will move to the coast overnight.
325 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Rain chances return today with a crossing warm front. A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. This wave and an approaching warm front should result in increasing light rain chances later this morning and afternoon. The region is progged to be in the warm sector in SW flow ahead of a trough advancing ewd from the Western CONUS.
Models continue to have the upper trough in the proximity for Tuesday with cold temperatures remaining in place with the lower heights along with some isolated snow showers continuing at times across the region.
1238 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Rain chances return today with a crossing warm front. A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. This wave and an approaching warm front should result in rain chances increasing today. The weak warm front that will have moved northward on Monday will continue its northward migration on Monday night. Whereas ridging was present almost all of last week, this week will be characterized by deep high speed southwesterly flow aloft.
437 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure offshore will result in onshore flow today.
The net result is High Plains lee troughing. Warmer temperatures are also expected across far southwest Kansas with the warm air advection pattern. On Tuesday, a cold front will move through.
356 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure centered south of Long Island will continue to drift out to sea today. A warm front will lift north of the area on Tuesday. VFR through the TAF period as high pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves east.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s and 30s, but we'll warm up into the 50s and 60s as a warm front lifts north into the area. Heading into Tuesday, winds will veer to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front and in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough. Forecast soundings continue to show deep mixing in a corridor along the trough and as a result dewpoints drop considerably during the afternoon. During the day, while instability develops in our southeast, winds are veered to the southwest and there is little convergence along the pre- frontal trough.
A frontal system will approach the area on Tuesday, but ahead of that front will be a strong 500H oriented southwest to northeast with an 850H thermal ridge over the eastern Panhandles and OK area. This deep boundary-layer mixing combined with deep cyclogenesis from the upper level trough approaching supports strong southwest winds that could be sustained 30-40 mph and gusts up to 65 mph. Tuesday night the front will move through and then winds will shift out of the north bringing in cooler air with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s for the OK Panhandle and upper 20s to near freezing for the TX Panhandle.
/issued 706 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/ A cold front has moved out of the area. /issued 336 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/ High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday night east coast A cold front over the Florida Straits, will continue to move slowly southeast, away from South Florida tonight through Tuesday. High pressure will also move slowly east from the the southeastern United States into the Western Atlantic Waters. The high will break down for the second half of this week, allowing for a cold front to work down into South Florida from the North. The front will wash out early this weekend over South Florida, as another strong high pressure system moves into the Southeastern United States from the west.
Moisture transport is decent but the low and mid level forcing is impressive for this time of year.
This will draw moisture north today and pull a cold front through tonight. Lows tonight fall into the teens and 20s with the approaching cold front.
For Monday night, a warm front will lift north across the region. With the warm front moving north across the area tomorrow night, it should be fairly mild, dropping into the mid 40s to around 50. Starting off on Tuesday, scattered showers will likely be ongoing from the overnight warm front passage.
With the wave focused to the north, have some low chance pops along the highway 14 corridor, but models are only hinting at the potential for saturation in the dendritic layer. Biggest concern is along the highway 14 corridor, where temperatures are expected to fall below freezing. At this time based upon on bufkit soundings & model temp profiles, I will play the odd of the atmosphere not becoming saturdated and freezing drizzle becomes a possibility into the late morning hours until surface temps warm above freezing.
The upper level low along the Oregon coast continues to slowly move inland and will be over central Oregon by morning. Upper low centered right along the Oregon coast this afternoon. Mixed rain and snow at the lower elevations with temperatures in the upper 30s. Temperatures will fall after sunset and the low will move inland across the forecast area tonight. Expect precipitation to change over to all snow even at the lower elevations. All models indicate the potential for a band of heavier snow to develop and move across the region overnight just to the north of the low center. The upper low moves off to the east Monday however the region remains in a cold northwest flow associated with a larger upper trough over the Pacific northwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with 30s to mid 40s likely.
This fog should burn off by mid to late morning, setting the stage for much warmer temperatures. If they do, then we can expect those storms to be quite severe in nature given the high shear and moderate instability that will be present. However, the NAM12 suggests that the warm sector will remain capped, until the actual cold front surges into southern Missouri to trigger storms.
Lingering moisture within the low level convergence did spark a few afternoon cu in far southeast Nebraska. and around 50 degrees or warmer south of I80. For now included fog and drizzle and in northeast Nebraska forecast sounding show there could be a mix of very light freezing drizzle/sleet or snow with the cooling once the precipitation starts.
1137 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 Leeward troughing will induce a wind shift to the south later tonight, then increasing to around 5 to 15 mph on Monday. Otherwise warmer air will advect into the area, with H850MB temperatures rising several degrees.
During the afternoon, a cold front will surge through the region from the northwest, and may trigger a few showers.
This activity is located roughly along a warm front characterized by dewpoints in the 60s to its south. As atmosphere destabilizes later this afternoon/evening and an upper trough over Texas approaches, expecting a more robust round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms in roughly the 23Z to 05Z timeframe per latest HRRR. Inverted trough remains situated across Middle Tennessee, with isolated showers showing up on radar and IFR conditions still plaguing the mid state. But look for more widespread showers to develop later this afternoon with storms moving through during the evening out ahead of a strong cold front that's expected to pass through later tonight.
632 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Warm front pushes northeast today across the region. A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
Across central Idaho, snow has re-developed over night and is bringing some light accumulations to the Camas Prairie, Whitebird Grade and along the Highway 12 corridor.
618 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Earlier drizzle and freezing drizzle had ended a few hours ago, and visibilities across the area are mostly 10 miles. Temperatures in northeast Nebraska remain below freezing, so Advisory is good there. Farther east into west central Iowa, temperatures have nudged above freezing, but dew points were still in the 20s for the most part. Thus wet bulb cooling suggests any precipitation that falls will force temperatures close to freezing. Wayne and Oakland indicate roads have become quite slick due to freezing drizzle across several counties with one or two accidents already reported. cannot discount some patchy icing over nern Neb for a couple hours this morning given pavement temps up there are currently hovering around the freezing mark.
Will need to see if any bowing segments manage to form, but getting damaging winds down through the low level inversion will be a tough tas5k. Areas up along the I-64 corridor could see temps down to the lower 20s or so by sunrise Wed.
Locally dense fog will remain possible due to low clouds on mountain and ridge tops. Better instability could advect northward behind the warm front this afternoon, but this remains quite uncertain. Our best potential for strong or severe storms may be early to mid evening as the negatively tilted upper trough pushes through. Only slightly cooler air, with a northwest wind, will filter in so highs Tuesday will still be warm under cloudy skies, in the middle 60s. A secondary front looks to move through Tuesday night after 00z associated with an upper low north of the Great lakes. The cooler and drier air will finally move in behind this system with lows Tue night dropping into the middle 40s, which is still about 15 degrees above normal.
646 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers to the area tonight. Weak disturbances following the low will allow shower chances to continue Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Steadier rain is forecast for Monday night and Tuesday with an approaching low pressure. Have elected to drop the remainder of the freezing rain advisory, as the warm push continues to win out over the area. Thanks to the warm push, high temperatures will end up roughly 15 degrees warmer than normal. Cold advection behind the low's associated cold front should result in any precip changing to snow showers Tuesday night.
The low clouds may break up in places as precipitation increases today, with MVFR conditions possible. During the afternoon, a cold front will surge through the region from the northwest, and may trigger a few showers.
A cold front will bring the leading edge of a strong cold front to the region on Tuesday as a positively tilted trough develops from Cen Canada to the Pac NW. Zonal flow will remain across the southern half of the country initially Tue, however the upper trough will deepen across the mid west through Wed.
444 AM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Week difluent westerly flow between a deep low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and a shallow trough over Texas continued to bring a modest influx of moisture to the area. Meanwhile, a 130 KT jet moving through the base of the Pacific Northwest low will drive the stationary front across northern UT and southwest WY southeastward as a cold front. Jet dynamics will play a role in bringing snow showers to the lower elevations, otherwise orographics provided by brisk west winds will be the main driver for snow over higher terrain. Except for areas across the north which will become cooler in response to frontal passage, temperatures will run near persistence today, tonight and Tuesday.
so there may continue to be some light freezing drizzle/ice accumulations. This is the lower end for blowing snow issues. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by a slow moving 1040mb high pressure system.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue through today across much of the region with a slight chance of precipitation over the higher terrain of Lincoln and Mohave counties and the Sierra early this week.
856 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers to the area tonight. Weak disturbances following the low will allow shower chances to continue Tuesday and Tuesday night.
635 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will produce light rain and fog later today and tonight. A surge of arctic air will flow in behind the low Tuesday and lake effect snow will develop.
Mostly light showery precip across NorCal today with the upper low across the PacNW and rather limited available moisture.
1052 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Hydro Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will produce light rain and fog later today and tonight. A surge of arctic air will flow in behind the low Tuesday and lake effect snow will develop.
The Key West radar is showing some showers underneath the diffluence aloft and in cloud streets rounding the base of the ridge. East to southeast winds will gradually decrease through today and overnight due to a developing trough to our north. The Atlantic ridge will slide out to sea with the ridge exiting to the east of the Florida Peninsula by Tuesday morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 56 67 44 / 80 90 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 55 67 45 / 60 90 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 61 54 66 43 / 50 90 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 50 64 42 / 40 90 70 50.
357 AM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Week difluent westerly flow between a deep low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and a shallow trough over Texas continued to bring a modest influx of moisture to the area. Meanwhile, a 130 KT jet moving through the base of the Pacific Northwest low will drive the stationary front across northern UT and southwest WY southeastward as a cold front. Jet dynamics will play a role in bringing snow showers to the lower elevations, otherwise orographics provided by brisk west winds will be the main driver for snow over higher terrain. Except for areas across the north which will become cooler in response to frontal passage, temperatures will run near persistence today, tonight and Tuesday.
Highs will be warm around 80 to the lower 80s along the coastal counties to 83-84 across the interior. Highs mainly in the lower 80s today and Tuesday will come close to record values at some climate sites.
/issued 241 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Rain has been on the downward trend as expected as the upper low pushes off to the east. Drier air is following behind the low and will play a part in the weather later today. Winds will stay in the 15-20 mph range overnight as a cold front currently in southern SD surges southward and approaches the FA. In general, the forecast remains on track with significant changes arriving Tuesday with the first of a pair of cold fronts.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows a large and distinct upper level low pressure system centered over Washington State keeping a stead SW flow aloft over NE Montana.
An upper level trough across west TX will lift northeast across TX into OK and the northern section of the upper trough axis will move across eastern KS this afternoon. Warm advection continues across the southern plains ahead of the upper trough. Temperatures will continue to slowly rise, thus no freezing drizzle is expected across the northern counties. This afternoon the upper trough axis should approach eastern KS. Ascent ahead of the trough will increase and scattered showers will develop across east central and northeast KS during the late morning and afternoon hours. This evening the H5 trough will lift northeast into AR and MO and the showers should come to an end by late afternoon. There could be some drizzle redeveloping ahead of surface cold front this evening.
844 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers to the area tonight. Weak disturbances following the low will allow shower chances to continue Tuesday and Tuesday night.