Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) The main features affecting west central Texas today are a broad upper-level ridge over the western US and an area of high pressure at the surface over the Midwest. Cooler and drier air has settled in across much of west Texas behind a cold front. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 90s with sunny to partly cloudy skies.
We will see highs continue to trend up into the mid to upper 90s today as compressional heating out ahead of the cold front occurs.
1251 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 This afternoon through Thursday: a cold front will continue pushing south through the forecast area with scattered showers/storms ahead of it, mainly for locations along/south of I-20 going into the early evening. /EC/ By Thursday evening, a deepening upper trough axis will extend towards the Mississippi Gulf Coast and possibly develop a closed low pressure near the coast.
1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate the pattern across much of the western US. Dry air in place and subsidence from the ridge will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide for today through tomorrow evening.
322 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 500 mb trough over western Canada into Montana moving east. A surface cold front is located on edge of 500 mb trough/height falls and will progress eastward/southeast across the area today. Temperatures today highly dependent on frontal timing and arrival of cooler air. From HRRR analysis and observations the initial wind shift and the cooler surface temperatures are about 1-2 hours apart, with cooler air lagging. Considerable mid and high level moisture with the 500 mb trough/front with soundings showing moisture in the 700-500 mb layer and a very dry airmass below it.
Large upper level high pressure dome centered over the four corners region continues to be in control across the western CONUS. But now appearing is a broad trough over B.
1153 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 VFR clear conditions remain in place late tonight and through the upcoming day as weak high pressure settles over SE MI from the northern Great Lakes.
253 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 The Ohio Valley will remain between a weakening NE to SW oriented ridge axis to the north and a positively tilted trough that stretches along the East Coast of the US to the south and east. A few of our urban locations could see low/mid 80s and with more sunshine and increased heights it will be a few ticks warmer than yesterday.
The upper level pattern continues to show a trough slowly progressing southwards towards central Gulf states with upper ridge building over the Upper Midwest today. The trough and subsequent surface pattern will aid in closing Gulf moisture off ahead of the incoming weekend system.
1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The mid level trough that has been over the region for the past few days has shifted south.
440 AM Update Water vapor satellite imagery shows our persistent trough is extending across New England and into NJ, as ridging attempts to build into the Great Lakes region.
(Today and tonight) Early morning mid-level water vapor imagery shows our upper high still over the Desert Southwest, with Hurricane Kay moving north northwest near the Baja peninsula, a trough digging into the PNW, and a trough remaining fairly stationary over the eastern CONUS. As Hurricane Kay moves towards the north and the trough entering the PNW continues to dig into the CONUS, it will begin to deamplify the upper ridge to our west. This will help to decrease thicknesses some, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday. Even with the deamplification of the upper ridge, we will still see northeast flow aloft, which will continue to allow drier air to advect into the area. Tonight will be mostly clear with light winds, resulting in lows in the low to mid-60s.
(Today and tonight) Although the longwave trough axis that we have been dealing with for the last few days continues to move away, we will actually see height falls across the area as mid-level ridge from the southwestern United States up toward the central Plains begins to weaken today and consolidate more in the western U.
251 AM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Deep northern flow trough will support a strong cold front into the region and the breakdown the western CONUS ridge. Warm downslope flow ongoing across the region ahead of the primary cold front, with some places in the low 90s early this morning per terrain effects.
1111 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will be in place through the remainder of the work week resulting in fair weather across central Illinois.
(Today) A drier trend should continue today, thanks to high pressure to our north ridging southward. An area of low pressure over the NE Gulf region will continue producing showers to our south. Cooler air despite plenty of sun in most spots should keep high temperatures across the area a tad cooler than seasonable norms. Highs this afternoon should warm into the low/mid 80s, with NE winds at 5-15 mph.
230 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 After some morning fog across parts of central IL early this morning, expect sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the low to mid 80s today.
Active subsidence and low-level flow backing to the southwest will bring sunny skies and will push temperatures into the lower 80s for a high.
The cold front will move through overnight, accompanied by gusty winds and cooler temperatures on Thursday.
Temperatures will also depend on the timing of the cold front moving over the region this afternoon. Deterministic models show the cold front southeast of the CWA by early evening.
628 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today) A drier trend should continue today, thanks to high pressure to our north ridging southward. An area of low pressure over the NE Gulf region will continue producing showers to our south. Cooler air despite plenty of sun in most spots should keep high temperatures across the area a tad cooler than seasonable norms. Highs this afternoon should warm into the low/mid 80s, with NE winds at 5-15 mph.
Active subsidence and low-level flow backing to the southwest will bring sunny skies and will push temperatures into the lower 80s for a high. The Great Lakes will still fall under the western periphery of the ridge and will produce another round of mostly sunny skies. The better Gulf moisture stays south of the Tennessee Valley tomorrow as a closed low over the Gulf blocks the access of moisture typically observed with low-level southwest flow.
(Today through Friday) Mid-level low pressure over LA/MS will swing a vort lobe south across Texas early this morning with a north-south flow remaining throughout the rest of the day. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are expected, with heat index values up to 100-103 degrees. Another mild and muggy night is expected tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland, to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs will again range in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values generally in the mid to upper 90s, with spotty locations near 100 degrees.
933 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Widespread clearing and a few thunderstorms in the ridges are expected today under high pressure. The next rain chance will arrive by late weekend with another low pressure system.
(Today through Friday) Cold front that moved through the midstate yesterday has brought us some cooler and drier air this morning, with current temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s. By tomorrow morning, low level winds switch to southeasterly as an upper low develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strengthening WAA on the east side of the low will allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to pop up by late morning and especially afternoon, with highest coverage in our southern counties.
Temperatures will also depend on the timing of the cold front moving over the region this afternoon. Deterministic models show the cold front southeast of the CWA by early evening. This cooler air mass is also very moist which will bring a chance for some precipitation Friday. The combination of gusty southerly winds (up to 30 mph), temperatures upwards of 100, relative humidity values down into the low 20s and high teen, as well as dry fuels will create an environment conducive of fast fire spread ahead of the front.
Cooler temperatures are expected as northwest flow ushers in a cooler air. The one to the north will bring elevated fire conditions to northern Elko county today and cooler temperatures to all locations.
Moisture will increase across east central Florida today as the deep S/SW flow pulls in the higher moisture from the Gulf, which will support higher coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local area this afternoon. The best chance for the higher rainfall amounts, and resulting Flood Advisories, will be across Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and northern Brevard counties.
722 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east of the area by Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the region on Friday, resulting in a dry day.
We will see highs continue to trend up into the mid to upper 90s today as compressional heating out ahead of the cold front occurs. Friday we will see the peak of the heat as the cold front approaches our doorsteps.
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today and tonight) The main features affecting west central Texas today are a broad upper-level ridge over the western US and an area of high pressure at the surface over the Midwest. Cooler and drier air has settled in across much of west Texas behind a cold front. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 90s with sunny to partly cloudy skies.
1020 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east of the area by Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the region on Friday, resulting in a dry day.
1031 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Widespread clearing and a few thunderstorms in the ridges are expected today under high pressure. The next rain chance will arrive by late weekend with another low pressure system. Dry weather will persist under the building ridge of high pressure.
511 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east of the area by Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the region on Friday, resulting in a dry day.
541 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 After some morning fog across parts of central IL early this morning, expect sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the low to mid 80s today.
622 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning mid-level water vapor imagery shows our upper high still over the Desert Southwest, with Hurricane Kay moving north northwest near the Baja peninsula, a trough digging into the PNW, and a trough remaining fairly stationary over the eastern CONUS. As Hurricane Kay moves towards the north and the trough entering the PNW continues to dig into the CONUS, it will begin to deamplify the upper ridge to our west. This will help to decrease thicknesses some, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday. Even with the deamplification of the upper ridge, we will still see northeast flow aloft, which will continue to allow drier air to advect into the area. Tonight will be mostly clear with light winds, resulting in lows in the low to mid-60s.
600 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper level high pressure remains over the western United States this morning leaving West Texas and southeastern New Mexico under its subsident southeastern edge. Some upper high clouds have moved over the area from Mexico but otherwise not much cloud cover is expected other than perhaps some afternoon cumulus, certainly there will not be enough moisture or lift for showers to develop so the dry forecast continues in the short term. Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above normal to end the week with highs reaching the 90s everywhere except the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
644 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday) Mid-level low pressure over LA/MS will swing a vort lobe south across Texas early this morning with a north-south flow remaining throughout the rest of the day. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are expected, with heat index values up to 100-103 degrees. Another mild and muggy night is expected tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland, to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs will again range in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values generally in the mid to upper 90s, with spotty locations near 100 degrees.
555 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 High pressure arrives today to decrease rain chances for today and Friday. Despite the high, wedge like conditions will keep ample clouds and cooler temperatures for today. Quick adjustment to POPs this AM with wedge conditions helping drive isolated showers still along the Blue Ridge primarily. Low pressure situated off the Atlantic coast is helping provide wedge like conditions early this morning with ample low clouds and drizzle. While high pressure builds in today, lingering clouds through a decent portion of the day will result in cooler afternoon temperatures as many will remain in the 70s for highs.
Broad ridging at the surface and aloft are combining with weak northerly flow at the surface to continue to erode the residual moisture from precipitation earlier in the week. Wouldn't be shocked to see temperatures slightly overperform this afternoon but the CAA aloft and near the surface should limit highs to the low 80s. Surface temperatures will also warm into the mid 80s with the loss of CAA and expect that diurnally driven cu will be more widespread compared to today with the combination of warmer temperatures and increase surface humidity.
620 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners strengthens through the short term as a mid-level trough drops into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak disturbance dropping south along the west side of the trough, may kick up another couple of showers or thunderstorms tonight across the ranchlands, otherwise, drier and warmer conditions are expected through the rest of the week.
407 AM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Much cooler air will start to move into Montana today, with Friday likely being the coolest day we have had in several weeks.
345 AM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 An upper trough will be digging into the northern plains over the next few days. As an extension of a Hudson Bay low, much cooler air will be streaming south today.
640 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday) Cold front that moved through the midstate yesterday has brought us some cooler and drier air this morning, with current temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s. By tomorrow morning, low level winds switch to southeasterly as an upper low develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strengthening WAA on the east side of the low will allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to pop up by late morning and especially afternoon, with highest coverage in our southern counties.
- Near normal temps persist through Friday before a strong cold front increases rain chances and fall-like temps the latter half of the weekend. Widespread fog is not anticipated given the higher temp/dewpoint depressions, however cannot rule out patchy dense fog in low lying areas through sunrise. Southerly winds increase from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon towards central Kansas as lee troughing builds into western Kansas. Without the stronger warmer advection in the lower levels however, high temps are generally similar than yesterday from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Slight changes were made to highs on Friday over north central Kansas as latest guidance is trending faster with the cold front crossing into north central Kansas by late Friday afternoon.
A quasi continental polar air mass and regional high pressure will continue to descend over the Ohio Valley. Broad ridging at the surface and aloft are combining with weak northerly flow at the surface to continue to erode the residual moisture from precipitation earlier in the week. Wouldn't be shocked to see temperatures slightly overperform this afternoon but the CAA aloft and near the surface should limit highs to the low 80s. Surface temperatures will also warm into the mid 80s with the loss of CAA and expect that diurnally driven cu will be more widespread compared to today with the combination of warmer temperatures and increase surface humidity.
Aloft, a stout 597 dam upper ridge exists across the southwestern states with troughing across the east. Through the remainder of the week, the western CONUS upper ridge will effectively collapse as deeper upper troughing traverses the northern states.
403 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Lingering clouds will gradually give way to improved weather this afternoon as high pressure arrives.
(This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern continues to evolve into more of a progressive setup today, with a very broad area of deep upper level troughing descending through the Intermountain West acting to squash what remains of the upper ridge over the Great Basin. Despite these changes, at least some degree of weak upper ridging will remain over West Texas through the next 24 hours as our region becomes sandwiched between the hurricane to the west, the trough to the north, and a separate upper low to our east. Otherwise, another fairly warm and dry day is in store for Friday with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s.
As we head through the evening and overnight hours tonight, mid-level height falls associated with a cutoff upper low over the western and central Gulf states will combine with the development of weak ridging across the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic to cause low- and mid-level flow to veer from ENE to SE by tomorrow morning. This wind shift will promote the advection of warmer and more moist air back into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow, which should lead to an increase in both temperatures and humidity for Friday. Tonight, with high pressure still nearby, expect winds to relax after sunset as the boundary layer decouples under mostly clear skies.
1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday) Mid-level low pressure over LA/MS will swing a vort lobe south across Texas early this morning with a north-south flow remaining throughout the rest of the day. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are expected, with heat index values up to 100-103 degrees. Another mild and muggy night is expected tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland, to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs will again range in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values generally in the mid to upper 90s, with spotty locations near 100 degrees.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A rather amplified pattern is in place across the CONUS early this afternoon with upper-level ridging extending from the southern/central plains into the Great Lakes, broad troughing across western Canada draped south into the northwestern tier of the lower 48. The strong upper level ridge which has led to phenomenal late summer weather over the last few days will begrudgingly push off to the east over the next couple of days (slowed by tropical systems in the Atlantic). This setup will eventually allow for moisture to move up from the south as well as for a trough/surface front to move into the region from the west this weekend.
218 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Cold front associated with the large upper trough over the northern plains will enter Yuma County by O6z tonight and continue to move south overnight, reaching a McCook to Goodland line by 12z. Low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s behind the front, but remain in the low to mid 60s ahead of it. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in northeast Colorado to the middle 80s in Graham and Gove counties of northwest Kansas.
Temperatures the remainder of the afternoon will continue to rise for areas across the southern Sandhills, central and southwest Nebraska as the Katabatic cold front pushes through there will be compresional heating which will result in a brief sharp temperature rise where highs could exceed over 100 degrees, which has already been seen across the northern Sandhills this afternoon. For Friday, precipitation chances increase in the evening hours as an increase in low level moisture will move into the region ahead of an upper level trof. Highs on Friday will be 30 to 40 degrees cooler than today with temperatures only in the mid 60s to low 70s.
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper level high pressure remains over the western United States this morning leaving West Texas and southeastern New Mexico under its subsident southeastern edge. Some upper high clouds have moved over the area from Mexico but otherwise not much cloud cover is expected other than perhaps some afternoon cumulus, certainly there will not be enough moisture or lift for showers to develop so the dry forecast continues in the short term. Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above normal to end the week with highs reaching the 90s everywhere except the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
258 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Hot and breezy conditions are being observed across the local area this afternoon as southerly winds have increased with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front currently across South Dakota. As the aforementioned cold front approaches from the northwest overnight. the leading edge of the cold front should reach the tri- cities during the morning hours.
A broad trough has settled in over the region today bringing much cooler weather, however, the cool down has only brought us back to near average temperatures and not significantly below average for most of the region. But the trough will stay with us through Friday, which will be about 5 degrees below average for this time of year. There is one area that is getting some cooler than average weather in the region, and that is Glacier National Park. The entire park is experiencing much cooler conditions today and through tonight with some precipitation and cold easterly breezes, so those in the higher elevations and back country of Glacier Park and the northern portions of the Flathead National Forest should be prepared for classic conditions that can lead to hypothermia.
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Lingering clouds will gradually give way to improved weather this afternoon as high pressure arrives.
As for rain chances, they look best tnt and Friday morning as some upper energy transitions through the upper trof, helping to breakout post frontal showers. However, the highest deep layer shear remains displaced north of the effective frontal boundary thus suggesting little to no organization of storms. With cooler air overspreading the region this evening, expect the red flag warning will be allowed to expire on time. This will be the result of a departing closed low and associated lower heights this weekend, and a subsequent building of an upper level ridge into the Northern Plains. By the middle of the week, the upper-level ridge axis may shift east of the forecast area, resulting in southwest flow aloft.
Cooler temperatures today in response to yesterday's frontal passage.
As the ridge axis shifts to the east, and low pressure drifts northward from the Gulf, we'll see veering winds start to reverse that trend later tonight-esp tmrw. The combo of the northward drifting Low, or its higher sourced moisture, with the approaching northern stream Low pressure trof/front, will spike pcpn chances heading into this weekend.
Lee troughing will begin to deepen overnight, bringing light southerly winds across the area and moisture return to the southern counties by morning.
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Satellite imagery shows a few areas of scattered clouds favoring the high terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah. Additionally, a quasi-linear band of clouds is oriented from central Utah through northwest Colorado and continues to move southeastward as a trough sags in from the north. Radar returns indicate isolated showers again favoring the high terrain. This will dampen the high pressure, pushing it to the south/west and allowing cooler temperatures associated with the trough to spill into the region starting this evening and tomorrow. While cooler, anticipated another day of above normal (by around 10 degrees) temperatures.