Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1057 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 An approaching upper trough will induce lee-side cyclogenesis over CO/WY/NEB tonight, which in turn will cause an existing baroclinic zone near the MO/AR border to lift northward as a warm front. Between the stratus deck and the approaching warm front, temperatures won't fall very far tonight, and temperatures for many locations should remain nearly steady and/or rise after midnight. Once the warm front has lifted northeastward, temperatures will surge into the upper 50s to low 60s despite the cloud cover, and southeasterly winds will also increase with gusts reaching up to 25- 30 mph during the afternoon. There will likely be a dry period during the late afternoon before precipitation chances increase again ahead of an approaching cold front.
Any concerns would be the slightly westward track of the low which would lead to more potential for freezing rain which could limit snow totals on the eastern edge of the snow shield from the central valley into NW Mn. Prior to the main area of pcpn moving in this afternoon freezing drizzle will likely cause travel impacts so no plans on changing start time of warning. There then could be a break in the wind during part of the overnight as the low lifts ne through the area then strong northerly winds developing towards morning bringing a return to blizzard conditions.
226 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early this Christmas morning, a warm front was stretched west to east, just south of Interstate 40. By mid morning, the warm front will be lifting north of TN. South winds and breaks in the clouds will bring warm, possibly record setting, temperatures in the lower 70s for most locations.
Lowest visibilities will be along and north of Interstate 40 as a warm front sits across the forecast area but will slowly move north. Foggy conditions through the overnight will keep poor flying conditions with lifr ceilings and visibilities ongoing well into late morning Christmas Day before a warm front lifts up through Middle Tennessee and into Kentucky around 18z quickly improving to vfr at all terminals by early afternoon.
a strong low level jet will also accompany the passage of this low. The passage of the low to the north of the CWA will open up southern zones to potential strong drying on downslope conditions. Large scale trough shifts east and north of our region Sunday night with large scale subsidence overspreading our CWA.
Best potential for fog to persist along with the lowest clouds will be in the tidal lakes and sounds along with the south facing shores of the tidal lakes and Mississippi Sound. High pressure will continue to have its say over our region through the middle of the week. Because of this the cold front associated with todays major storm system expected in the northern plains and Upper MS Valley will stall well north of the region.
Water Vapor imagery through 6 PM reveals an impressive cyclone moving across the Baja Peninsula into the desert southwest. As warm front lifts north through the state overnight, we currently expect dense fog to erode from south to north, hence the segmented dense fog advisory for tonight. As Pacific Cold Front/dryline progresses eastward tomorrow afternoon over western parts of Oklahoma, we could flirt briefly with high wind warning conditions. Overall severe storm potential appears to be on the low side given very meager instability.
200 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front lifts across the area this afternoon and tonight.
As a vigorous mid/upper trough moves over the Rockies and begins to take on a negative tilt, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase downstream across the Central Plains. Locations along and west of Highway 14 will have the highest probabilities for seeing a few strong or perhaps a rogue severe updraft or two.
133 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and Christmas Day.
A warm front extends across the middle of the forecast area at this time. The warm front will lift north today with much warmer air moving in the region. Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. An isolated shower may pop up across extreme northern sections of the forecast area as the warm front moves through. By tonight, a cold front will be moving through the southern plains and into western Arkansas overnight.
Surface ridging over the northern Gulf continues to result in E/ESE winds across the eastern waters tonight, which is allowing for dew points in the 68-72 degree range to move across the cooler shelf waters (58-61 degrees) and form sea fog. Expect these to lesson somewhat, but the higher winds should help to keep fog formation chances low over the inland areas.
332 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A very dynamic system is beginning to take shape as 09Z water vapor imagery shows the base of an upper trough beginning to lift out from the four corners region with a negative tilt. The falling low pressure is causing strong low level warm air advection into the central plains with surface OBs showing moisture surging north through TX and OK with the warm front across northern OK. While the warm front remains to the south of the forecast area, patchy dense fog should linger as moisture advects into the relatively cooler airmass. Highs today are expected to make it into the lower and middle 60s just based on warm air advection.
1257 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Weak high pressure will prevail tonight.
High pressure will strengthen this Christmas Day into tonight over the western Atlantic waters.
Plenty of concerns overnight with fog redevelopment over the west and eventual saturation with FZDZ and freezing rain into the morning hours tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will warm to the lower to mid 40s northeast and in the lower to mid 50s over the south and all dependent upon strong low level warm air advection.
1218 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast continues moving further into the Atlantic Basin with a weak front stalled just north of the area. The front will weaken tonight allowing a ridge of high pressure to spread across the region from the north on Christmas Day.
327 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 08z/2am surface analysis shows 995mb low over Colorado with warm front extending southeastward into Oklahoma/Arkansas. The low is progged to deepen to around 982mb as it tracks into South Dakota by early this evening, gradually pulling the warm front northward into central Illinois.
/issued 322 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016/ (Tonight and Christmas Day) An unsettled pattern will continue during the next 24 hours as a well developed upper level trough over the western U.
Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the 30s today but will surge warmer overnight after a warm front lifts through the region.
This feature will gradually move north as a warm front tonight, with dense fog becoming an issue across the northern third of the FA, prompting the earlier issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. Current temperatures across north Mississippi are still in the low 60s, and have such bumped up lows tonight by a couple of degrees.
1207 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure over Michigan will shift east tonight.
Deep layer ridging and anomalously warm temperatures aloft will prevail once again today. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s inland, and the middle 70s near the coast. As low-layer flow veers a bit today, a warmer, more moist airmass from the Peninsula will move over a slightly less warm airmass across south Georgia where low clouds and fog are slow to scatter today.
336 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and Christmas Day.
As we head into tonight, a warm front will begin to lift north towards the Ozarks as low pressure strengthens across the central High Plains. Areas of fog and drizzle will continue into the morning as that warm front lifts north through the area.
431 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure centered over Lake Huron will move off to the east today. This will allow a warm front to lift north across the region tonight.
Current temperatures are running about 15-25F warmer than 24 hours ago.
Strong ridging in place today over the Southeast while a deep trough digs into the Western US.
Expect morning lows to linger the mid to upper 60s over interior and northern areas, and in the low 70s along coastal locations and the main metro areas. An upper level ridge is well established across the Florida peninsula. While most of the moisture will be mainly trapped in the lower levels, PWAT's through this period will be around 1 to about 1.
322 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Today: Early this morning scattered light showers developed just north of a warm front that is draped across Northern OK. A deep negatively-tilted upper-deck trof that has been discussed for about a week is still expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it surges northeast from AZ & NM to the Nebraska/SD border. With an equally intense surface cyclone situated over Eastern CO, the lower-deck southwest flow will increase considerably to not only scour the fog but enable richer moisture to continue surging further into the Central Plains. As the vicious cyclone crosses the Nebraska/SD border this afternoon, a Pacific cold front will surge east/southeast into KS.
350 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure building southeastward from central Canada will provide the eastern seaboard with pleasant weather today and tonight.
319 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 It is an unseasonably warm and muggy start to the day across all of Southeast Texas with 3 AM temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s (normal December 25th low temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the upper 40s at the coast).
355 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Visibility is increasing south of the warm front with dense fog left only in northern Oklahoma.
Latest surface analysis shows a warm front just south of the PAH forecast area. Models show the warm front will lift across the region today and be just north of our region by 00z.
there were winds of around 130 knots on both the front and back sides of the trough over the southwestern states. There was a modest thermal gradient out ahead of the trough across the Plains at 700 mb and 850 mb. There had been some lightning in the diffluent flow east of the trough. Precipitation early on may just be light rain or drizzle in the northern half of the area (possibly freezing drizzle in our far northern counties for a few hours before 9 am) but showers and isolated thunderstorms increase in coverage across the south and then spread north/northeast.
Late in the period southeasterly flow will increase across the state as a warm front approaches from the south.
High pressure is moving east across the Mid Atlantic and a cold front is stalled across the gulf from Central Florida to the Central Texas Coast. Through tonight and Sunday the ridge will continue east while low pressure moves across the plains.
Low temperatures generally in the low 20s to around 30, coldest in the valleys. with some ridging during the upcoming week.
As skies clear, temperatures will increase into the low to mid 70s for most locations this afternoon. Low temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 50s.
Scattered light rain showers, mixed with light snow, sleet and spotty freezing rain, especially across southwest Virginia and the higher elevations. Very light precipitation will continue until around daybreak with light icing anticipated over the higher elevations.
A very weak cold frontal boundary will bring light NE winds by sunrise. With the easterly surface wind compoment, moisture will increase today, with dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 30s, to near 40 across the SE zones (near Barber county) by 6 pm. With the loss of yesterday's downslope, afternoon temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than Saturday, but still way above early February normals. Unseasonably mild, with most locations remaining well above freezing (normal is lower 20s).
422 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A cold front will push through the region dry today, as low pressure travels through southern Canada.
1234 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure short lived as a more progressive pattern develops. Cold front mid week. High pressure to end work week. High pressure giving high cirrus with the sun poking through most of the day today. Tonight should be much warmer than last night as waa brings a warmer and moister air mass into the region. Moisture may be to limited by this time to produce anything, thus only the low POPs.
Dense fog continues to develop along and west of the warm frontal boundary that has stalled from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi to Goliad. Warm front/coastal trough, as of writing, had just shifted to the west of KCRP and extends northward to west of KVCT. Warm front/coastal trough has moved little from earlier this evening. This low level moisture pooling across the region is resulting in areas of fog beginning to develop across the eastern half of the CWA.
140 AM MST Sun Feb 5 2017 A weak upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. With high pressure stretching over the Dakotas, winds are generally light and easterly across western SD. Upper ridge will slowly shift eastward today, and warm air will advect into the region.
244 AM MST Sun Feb 5 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a broad short wave ridge over the West CONUS. At the surface a backdoor cold front was moving over the east 1/3 of the Tri-State Area, with west winds turning to the north behind the front. This morning the cold front will be pushed east as the broad ridge builds onto the Plains. WAA will not be as strong as yesterday so highs will be a few degrees cooler, but still well above normal. Winds will also be lighter due to an inversion preventing the breezy winds from the low level jet from mixing down to the ground. Tonight lows will be slightly warmer than last night due to the slightly stronger winds and increasing cloud cover.
115 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure will move off East Coast tonight.
The cold air gets kicked out Sunday as low level southerly flow takes over and abundant sunshine by afternoon, brings much warmer temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
309 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Despite a weak frontal boundary sagging south across the region today, upper level ridging and mostly clear skies will still allow temperatures to rise into the 50s near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon with 40s to the north.
Weak weather disturbances crossing northern Utah tonight will be followed by high pressure aloft across the region Sunday.
That gradient is expect to relax this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front tonight will shift the winds to the north as a weak high pressure moves into the area tomorrow. Therefore temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but the wind will remain generally below 10 mph, which will cause only an elevated fire danger. Starting off on Sunday night, models remain fairly consistent with isentropic lift increasing within the lowest 850 mb, as moisture advects northward towards eastern Kansas.
a stronger trof moves into the Pac NW. This stronger trof will arrive here Tue. The flow will be progressive with a broadening ridge moving over the Plns Fri. as a trof moves onshr in the W and presses deeper inland Sat. This high will depart into the Mid MS Vly Thu with a warm front developing from MT- TX. Tue: Cold frontal passage. Cooler. but still a little warmer than normal. Dramatically warmer with widespread 50s/60s looking likely.
but then push south as ML trough axis swings by. The high will reside over the deep south by late Sunday afternoon.
Although, portions of North Mississippi may continue to see small chances for light showers throughout the day as a secondary warm front moves into Central Mississippi. The secondary warm front will move northward Sunday Night through most of the Mid-South.
There could be a period of freezing drizzle as the DGZ becomes unsaturated later this morning or afternoon, but that should not amount to much either as it will be fairly brief if it does develop.
Surface analysis shows a low pressure system in eastern South Dakota with a front draped to the southwest. This is a warm front, but there is a cold front to the west of the low, that will over-take the warm front before it gets into the area. Behind the front there will be northwest winds and as high pressure moves into the area, winds will become light and a little variable. Winds will remain fairly light but will turn to the south as the high moves east. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the cold front.
Warm temperatures aloft are causing heavy wet snow (with low snow-to-water ratios) at the higher elevations, generally above 5000-5500 feet this evening.
Overnight lows will return to subfreezing, courtesy of a weak cold front expected to push through northwest Missouri tonight. Afternoon highs Sunday will be slightly warmer than today, generally reaching into the low to mid 50s for areas south of the Missouri River, and mid to upper 40s for areas north.
The inverted trough will push east/northeast today and high pressure behind it will nose into the area. Expect considerable early morning stratus and patchy fog with the lowest visibility over southern sections. High pressure over the southeast states will continue to nose into the area. Little change in min temps is indicated, with a range from the lower 50s in the far north to near 60 in Martin county.
121 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure continuing to keep the weather quiet across South Florida. Northward of the front high pressure dominates across much of the eastern CONUS and extends into central Florida. Tonight into Sunday the high pressure across the eastern CONUS will shift to the southeast into the Atlantic waters off of the Carolinas as a developing low and frontal system moves eastward into the Great Lakes region.
An unsettled pattern will continue this week with temperatures all over the place due to the passage of a couple of cold fronts.
303 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Maintained patchy fog through the morning hours across Southeast KS ahead of a slow moving cold front but confidence remains fairly low at this time.
Weak lee troughing will develop to our west on Sunday afternoon.
A cold front brings unsettled conditions mid week. Cooler and drier high to end the work week. Warm air advection with weak over running as warm front approaches from the west-southwest. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday.
This wave will send a weak cold front through northern Illinois Sunday morning which may bring a flurry or two far north. High pressure will build in right behind the front Sunday afternoon. Warmer than normal conditions accompany the rain, but a strong cold front will bring colder air and windy conditions back mid week. Warmer air shifts northeast ahead of the next system Sunday night.
A surface cold front as of 05. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with highs from the mid 20s to the lower 30s.
329 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 A weak 850mb trough axis found along the Appalachian chain into northern Mississippi/Louisiana will stall today as winds parallel this boundary in the vertical. Very weak lift coupling with weak lift from the upper level jet is providing enough focus to keep showers developing mainly over and either side of the trough axis.
Sunday looks dry and mild across the area under an upper level ridge of high pressure crossing over the region.
Temps have struggled to reach expected highs as northwesterly winds have taken over with cooler air filtering in from the north. Southerly flow will increase on the backside of the high while southwesterly flow increase aloft. Given how bad the NAM has been performing recently with low clouds/fog and the extent of southwest winds in much of the low levels.
126 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure will move east of the region overnight.
Cancelled the High Wind Warning a few hours early this evening as winds should continue to subside.
Downslope flow west of the trough was helping warm temperatures well up into the 60s and even lower 70s over parts of southwest Kansas. A weak cold front over the northern Plains will push south into central Kansas later tonight.
1128 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2017 Southwest flow ahead of a weak cold front will bring a warmer night to the area. Cloud cover during the evening will also help to keep temperatures warmer than last night. Should see clouds slowly clear from the west late this evening and overnight, but the southerly flow should keep the low temperatures to near or just a couple of degrees below freezing. The cold front barely makes it through the area Sunday. This combined with the warmer start to the day will likely lead to warmer temperatures than today, even though the "cold front" will be south of the majority of the area across the Ozarks.
Southwest flow off the high plains by mid-day will advect warm h925 temperatures of 7 to 14C back across much of the Sandhills region and points south and west.
High pressure was off the southeast U. coast while low pressure was just north of the great lakes. A ridge of high pressure to the west will move east across Indiana tonight.
300 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure briefly builds in from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest today resulting a break in precipitation before another round of light snow tonight.
The main forecast dilemma will be the potential for light freezing rain or patchy freezing drizzle in the far northeast CWFA overnight. especially the valleys are expected to dip to well below freezing. with a mention of patchy freezing drizzle.
320 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 The primary forecast concern in the immediate short term period has been the potential for any patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in parts of northeast Georgia this morning. Some observations in this area do indicate temperatures at or below freezing as a weak disturbance pushing across the area has generated very light radar returns. Given these forecast trends, have opted to stick with a Special Weather Statement this morning to address the potential for any isolated slick spots on roadways from light freezing rain in northeast Georgia. This light precipitation axis will shift southward and gradually diminish, with temperatures warming well above freezing areawide by mid-morning.
Otherwise partly cloudy over the area with High pressure centered over the Devils Lake Basin.
Some locations have reported freezing rain and even some sleet as model soundings do support a 1 degree Celsius warm layer. Temps have been nearly steady or slowly increasing due to the developing southwesterly flow bringing in the warmer air.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Currently have an area of low pressure stretching from NE MN southwestward through ERN SD into NRN NE. Southerly winds kicked up ahead of that area of low pressure today, and will begin to diminish into the evening hours as the area of low pressure pushes ESE through the area with the sfc pressure gradient loosening. CAA therefore in place for Sunday with low stratus expected to build southward on the backside of the low pressure system. Temps expected to be cooler into Sunday, but still fairly warm with the extent of CAA not really kicking until beyond the current forecast period.
Much warmer temperatures are expected with lows only dropping into the 40s.
1036 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2017 Cold front located just west of the I-29 corridor will continue to track east through southwest MN and northwest IA through the early evening hours. With subtle ridging nosing into south central SD late tonight, think there is good potential of clearing out in this area, while southwest MN and the Highway 14 corridor have the best potential for extended cloud cover. Cooler air will quickly filter across the region tonight, leading to colder low temperatures in the teens. With warming temperatures aloft and decreased snowpack in the Missouri Valley, there is good potential for this area to reach near or just above freezing on Sunday.