Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-WEEK.
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE AT H850 AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEPARATES COLD H850 TEMPS FROM DEEPER ARCTIC AIR NOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.
1123 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHER OVERNIGHT COURTESY OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA.
314 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. LIKELY DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NW FLOW MOVES IN BY THE AFTERNOON USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LINGER WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WINDS WILL NOT BE DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT (HELPING THE LOWS TO NOT COMPLETELY BOTTOM OUT) AND EVEN GUST TO AROUND 15 MPH.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AS LOW 50S DEWPOINTS TRY TO PUSH NORTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE REGION AS IT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA AND E TX. /ISSUED 928 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI STNRY OVER SOUTHERN CWA.
253 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A large area of high pressure extending from here into the Canadian High Plains will be responsible for a return to cold air over the weekend, and this could bring the coldest air this area has seen since mid-January.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 20S.
429 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
An upper ridge axis stretched from the desert southwest into the northern Rockies. At the surface, area observations showed a cold front pushing south through the northern plains and into the forecast area. Highs today are expected to be cooler due to the persistent cold air advection. Lows tonight should range from around 5 above over northeast KS to the mid teens in central KS as the center of high pressure passes to the northeast of the forecast area across IA.
CSV HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BUT WET-BULBING AND BELOW FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION FROZEN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AND TURN FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
234 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS TONIGHT FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MIGHT SEE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPEST.
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND WILL GIVE WAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER THAT WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT.
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016 A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight. Snow will generally fall only in the higher mountains. A cold front passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and slightly lower snow levels.
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
945 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN U. THE TRAILING EDGE OF A WEAK WAVE RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OVER UTAH FLATTENS AS A WAVE WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70.
320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front will move through the area this morning. Temperatures will still warm into the low to mid 40s across extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri by midday. Highs across central Missouri will only warm into the lower 30s today as temperatures fall into the 20s this afternoon.
1119 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TO HELP STEER A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS /DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA/ AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NRN SASK WILL DVDLP SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL GENERALLY SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TMPS WITH THE LOW- LEVEL CAA ON FRI. BUT JUST HOW FAR E THE MID-LVL RIDGE FLATTENS IS STILL IN DOUBT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WARMING WILL TREND WILL TREND A BIT COOLER WITH TMPS. WEAK WINDS ALONG THIS TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IFR CIGS AND SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG AT KOFK.
ALTHOUGH 00Z GUIDANCE VISIBILITIES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IFR INLAND LIKELY OWING TO THE SHALLOW/LIMITED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIXING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE PER KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER.
1212 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION KEEPS OVERALL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO NNE WINDS AT KAPF AND NNW WINDS ALONG EAST COAST. BOTH GLOBAL MODEL AND MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS MAINLY NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S.
353 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OVER IOWA AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH CHADRON NEBRASKA AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AROUND FREEZING BY THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT.
327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
THE WEAK BACKDOOR SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAT CAUSED SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLIER THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW. WE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE. SO SOME COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
DUNN A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. ALLOWING FOR COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
1019 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016 A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight. Snow will generally fall only in the higher mountains. A cold front passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and slightly lower snow levels.
439 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER.
Since conditions in the lower levels of the troposphere are dry and stable. the only indication of this wave is the high clouds moving across the region currently. A cold front will surge south tonight into Friday in the wake of the system. Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow. /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will struggle into the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST HOURLY RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER WESTERN TN. EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
1236 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COOLER RIDGE OF DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING THE DRY MID LEVELS (KMWN) OR THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY WITH A COUPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THRU THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A COUPLE COLD FRONTS THAT TRY AND CROSS THE WATERS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MORE OR LESS THE STATUS QUO OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT. A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW EVENING. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. 925 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN +15 CELSIUS OBSERVED TODAY AT ILX/DVN AND ABOVE FACTORS SUPPORTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. RC 234 PM CDT DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES AT MID-WEEK THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF +14/15C AND 925MB TEMPS OF +18/20C BENEATH THE RIDGE SUPPORT DAILY MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS A MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR EARLY FALL WEATHER. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL FOR THE MOST PART. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE STAYING PARKED JUST OFF TO OUR W/SW. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST WILL START TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AND MAY HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLD CONVECTION NEAR OUR FAR SRN ZONES BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE W/SW.
A MODERATE TO STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AL AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
658 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 High pressure for Central Illinois will remain the main story for the entire forecast, and the short term is no exception. Ridge axis stretched from Maine and the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri/Arkansas. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SW OF ENSENADA LIFTS OUT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SITTING UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ATOP A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN MEXICO. AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITS FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTH INTO WRN NEB. FURTHER WEST TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S. CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN THAT. THE REMAINING UPPER LOW WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE EASTERLY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MORE EASTERLY TRACK WILL VERY SLOWLY TAKE THE UPPER LOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST MODELS STALL IT OUT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY FILLS/DIES OUT. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST UPPER LOW TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE U. WITH RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. THE NAM-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW TOWARD OUR AREA BY MID-WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM SE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUDS/MOISTURE.
DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND COOLER PROFILE THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND MAINLY LOCATED ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN AS A LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME A WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS SPREADING SOUTHWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE NW IN A CLASSICAL/HYBRID DAMMING SCENARIO. WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. -BLAES THE CLUSTER OF VORT CENTERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
800 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 WEAK BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY ON WEEKEND FORECAST AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH CLOUDS HITTING THE HIGH GROUND. MOSTLY ON RIDGES ABOVE 3500 FEET. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CUT OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY DRIFT IT BACK TO THE WEST. HIGHER RIDGES IN CENTRAL WV WILL STILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH 12Z.
729 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED THOUGH AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. AND THE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO TX UP THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY. 25IN OVER THE FAR SE CWA /MAINLY MENOMINEE COUNTY/ AND COLD FRONT STILL NEARBY WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE STATE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW MAINLY AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUSION WILL BE TO SEND DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge in from the north through the short term period. Meanwhile the upper level trough currently over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward and deepen while ridging tries to build in from the west by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Temperatures tonight will be similar to last night, though they may be a degree or two warmer. Morning lows on Wednesday should be a few degrees warmer still in the mid to upper 50s.
703 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ THE 20Z RADAR AND VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LAST BIT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING WEAK UPPER LOW WERE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE LEAD UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING UPPER TROF WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING BKN-TO-OVC CIGS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE, WITH MAINLY JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY RETROGRADES LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF COAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA.
941 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
746 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR TUESDAY, ANY SHOWERS OVER THE S/E END BY SUNRISE WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
738 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM WLY TO SWLY. A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH BREEZY POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE E-SE TOMORROW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS PER DEEPENING SFC TROF IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF. AND IN THIS AREA CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AS SOME WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES OVER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
/ISSUED 424 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. BY LATE THIS WEEK, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING OUT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING BUILDING IN LOCALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL AREA WEATHER OF COURSE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS LOW INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
Upper ridge shifting east into Texas should deflect this system far enough to our west and north to keep our rain chances minimal tonight and Tuesday. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, with highs tomorrow in the lower to mid 90s.