Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 500mb ridge sitting over central Mexico will continue to nose its way over Deep South Texas tonight and through Memorial Day. With a plethora of low-level moisture in place, there could be some isolated morning streamer showers, but subsidence from the ridge will be maximized tomorrow afternoon and evening, keeping things mainly dry and warm. But even with the presence of the ridge, afternoon high temperatures will be fairly seasonal, reaching the low-mid 90s across the district.
Though patchy high level cirrus will pass across the area tonight, minimums should have no problems reaching the low to mid 50s.
The late clearing of clouds will also help keep us cooler with mostly 80s expected today. While the severe storm threat has decreased slightly for this afternoon across the east, multiple rounds of storms are still expected as the closed low off of Baja CA moves eastward today. Hi- res models are all over the place with location and timing of development, however, storms look to develop over the higher terrain and trek eastward through the afternoon and evening. An upper level trough over the region this week will help keep us cool with thunderstorms possible each afternoon.
Skies are clearing early this afternoon as mid-level ridging and subsidence continue to produce stable conditions across the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s north to lower 80s south, generally a few degrees warmer than yesterday in most spots due to rising heights with the building ridge. There will be more of a southerly component to lower-level winds tomorrow as the ridge axis shifts eastward which will bring temperatures more in line with seasonal averages with mostly sunny skies.
358 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week. The backdoor cold front is becoming diffuse across Georgia, with a baroclinic zone extending across the area. The deep closed low aloft near the Mason-Dixon line this evening will lift into eastern Pennsylvania tonight, with the associated trough across our area to pull offshore and gives way to a slight rise in heights late. At the surface, strong high pressure will build out of the Ohio Valley. Conditions tonight will be dry and cool, and as the high to the north builds in, winds far inland look to become decoupled.
The ridge will move east of us, creating continued light winds but from a more southerly direction. Light southerly flow and cloud cover will give warmer low temperatures tonight, with lows in the lower 50s expected. Winds will turn more southwesterly Monday due to a trough to our northwest. Winds in the lower atmosphere will pick up a bit, so anticipate a bit gustier Monday, especially in northern counties, but limited to around 15 to 18 mph. The southerly flow will increase our temperatures a bit Monday, with highs in the lower 70s expected. The above mentioned upper level trough will mostly remain north of our region, but will destabilize the atmosphere a bit Monday afternoon into evening, with lower clouds expected to move into the area.
Additional storms will develop over the high plains later today and move east tonight, with decaying remnants potentially reaching northeast OK Monday morning. Memorial Day will likely be the first day of more widespread rainfall with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible for much of the area thanks to a subtle short wave pushing across the southern plains around the base of the main trough located along the Rockies bringing multiple waves of precipitation.
Have included the mention of MVFR CIGS for most sites early tomorrow morning (10-15Z) as the low-level moisture deepens via the light onshore flow. Upper ridging continues to build over the Southern Plains, though deepening pressures over western/central TX as a longwave trough digs into Baja California will work to increase onshore flow today. Otherwise, should be a reasonably pleasant day today with highs in the lower to mid 80s, overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s, and partly cloudy skies. Slightly warmer and more humid conditions arrive on Monday as the elevated onshore flow increases both moisture transport and WAA with highs approaching the mid to upper 80s.
High pressure has begun to fold over western Montana and central Idaho, leading to sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures. Temperatures will continue to warm through mid week as the high pressure ridge strengthens.
311 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will build from the northwest tonight and become centered across the area on Monday.
1136 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 Upper trof has moved east of the forecast area this morning, with clear skies behind it.
A low pressure system brings an end to the dry conditions in the second half of the work week. Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a mid-level closed low trekking northeast across southern PA, streaming a plume of moisture northward into NY across the Finger Lakes region. With the trough axis well to our south, limited synoptic forcing will yield just extra cloud cover for areas east of Rochester, with spotty showers nudging into the eastern periphery of the North Country and southern Allegany County. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
Across the NW Mtns, clearing skies and drying sfc dewpoints (from the low 40s) along with a decreasing north to northwest breeze will lead to near optimal conditions for the formation of frost, especially in the high rural valleys. Building high pressure will bring sunshine and much milder temperatures, with high rising into the mid 60s to low 70s areawide.
247 PM PDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through mid-week, building heat as high temperatures rise several degrees each day.
1015 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will build from the northwest tonight and become centered across the area on Monday.
739 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region will gain even more control of our weather to end the long holiday weekend. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s for most areas.
With high pressure dominating the atmospheric column, northeasterlies were drawing in a nice cool/dry airmass with dew points in the 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. As high pressure moves east with time, the low level anticyclonic flow around the high will veer winds a little more for the PAH FA, and a dew point recovery closer to 50F will be realized by tmrw at this time. Memorial Day temperatures will move closer to seasonal norms in the lower 80s, but likely still fall just shy, in the upper 70s, despite another day of good sunshine.
* A frosty start to Memorial Day across the Northwest Mountains of PA Precip associated with the upper low center spinning over south-central PA is fizzling out late this evening with the last appreciable short wave lifting north through the Poconos at 02Z. The clearing skies and drying sfc dewpoints (falling from the from the low 40s into the low to mid 30s) across the NW Mtns, along with a decreasing north to northwest breeze will lead to near optimal conditions for the formation of frost, especially in the high rural valleys. Lows across the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Lower Susq valley will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Building high pressure will bring sunshine and much milder temperatures, with high rising into the mid 60s to low 70s areawide.
807 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A large lake aggregate high pressure system is centered over Lake Huron this evening. This shows how unseasonably cold the airmass has been as lows this morning in the 30s most locations with a few below freezing. 12z DTX sounding show an incredible surface inversion with temperatures about 30 degrees warmer 400 ft above the ground. High pressure and upper level ridge overhead will slide east tonight. Mid level trough over the upper Midwest will weaken as it sweep across the northern Great Lakes Memorial Day.
Cloud cover is expected to hold on throughout the night and will provide a blanket across the area, keeping overnight temperatures in the low/mid 50s for the most part.
958 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region, then slide offshore mid to late week. High pressure takes control for the first half of the week.
934 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 An upper level trough will slowly exit off to the east tonight. High pressure will return for Memorial Day before moving offshore during the middle and latter portions of the week. A warm front should lift northward across the area by mid-week while a cold front approaches from the west. An upper-level trough axis will become negatively tilted overnight to the northeast of the region. The northerly flow around the low pressure system will become more northwesterly tonight as well with winds diminishing overnight. Cooler than average temperatures still linger. High pressure will build into the region Monday and Monday night. Plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures are expected during the day and milder temperatures Monday night with a few clouds around.
532 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region will gain even more control of our weather to end the long holiday weekend. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s for most areas.
/Issued 301 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021/ Wedge front that pushed through the area today has mostly modified this afternoon in the sun and is blending together with the airmass that was already in place behind the cold front. High pressure at the sfc will continue to shift east, bringing winds from the east and a slow return to the moisture for later in the week. /Issued 312 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021/ Extended models show a trough moving through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week. Discrepancies noted between models by mid week, however models agree on increasing Gulf moisture across the area ahead of the amplifying trough to our west.
1048 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region will gain even more control of our weather to end the long holiday weekend. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s for most areas.
Pretty quiet weather in the short term as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the area. Memorial Day brings more dry conditions with warmer temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Another cool night is expected with high pressure to our NE over the Great Lakes still dominating the weather over much of the eastern U. Thus, good radiational cooling will allow for lows tonight in the lower 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. For the Memorial Day holiday, winds will begin to veer around more to the SE and aid in a nice warm-up with afternoon highs generally in the lower to mid 80s. Our next weather maker will be advancing across the Southern Plains through the day on Monday in the form of an upper level trough and associated cold front. Rain chances will increase further through Monday night, mainly along and north of Interstate 30 as the trough and cold front slowly advance farther east toward our region.
High pressure will be over eastern KY/W VA, which will make winds drop to calm. Afternoon dewpoints have been in the upper 40s, and forecast lows are in the lower 40s. Tonight should be notably cooler as a result, with only a few high clouds possibly late. For Memorial Day, expect dry weather with only a few clouds as high pressure builds in, and temperatures much warmer than today. Precipitation chances increase mid/late week as slow moving upper trough intrudes. Dry air in place Monday night with high pressure to our southeast. Mostly clear with lows in the low to upper 50s.
1037 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week. As the low level ridge builds, the pressure gradient is expected to strengthen, which should in turn keep surface NNE winds of 5 to 10 mph through the night. However, expect temperature falls will slow once the low level winds increase again later this evening and overnight. Some wind protected areas inland could drop into the lower 50s.
* A frosty start to Memorial Day across the Northwest Mountains of PA Upper low center nicely displayed on Water Vapor and Radar imagery this evening - Just south of KUNV. Across the NW Mtns, clearing skies and drying sfc dewpoints (falling from the from the low 40s) along with a decreasing north to northwest breeze will lead to near optimal conditions for the formation of frost, especially in the high rural valleys. Building high pressure will bring sunshine and much milder temperatures, with high rising into the mid 60s to low 70s areawide.
This trough is pushing mid-level moisture southward, encouraging cloud development and allowing for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Utah/Arizona border. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected to begin developing late Monday morning, first over the higher terrain and later in the day over the valleys.
839 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 EVENING UPDATE: Rather quiet weather will continue as a ridge builds over the area. Many areas had RHs in the low to mid teens. Rux PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Strong upper level ridge has built over the West and will slowly migrate eastward through the upcoming week.
Warmer temperatures and increasing for rain will develop midweek and beyond. Mid level trough continues to be pushed east by a ridge this evening. Expect lows from the lower 40s northeast to the middle and upper 40s west. Temperatures will warm with Monday's highs in the lower and mid 70s.
I would not be surprised though if the extent of the heavier rain expands as the lift moves over the low level easterlies on the plains. By Monday night the upper level trough will have moved southeast of the area with the 700 mb closed low dropping into northern NM.
Increasing high clouds from the northwest tonight as the upper ridge continues to build into the region.
716 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region, then slide offshore mid to late week. Latest visible and infrared satellite showing the back side of the low cloud deck starting to thin from west to east at early evening. High pressure takes control for the first half of the week.
High pressure to the north will bridge the old front draped across central FL which will produce a more onshore (E/NE) flow. Weak upper low over the area will keep temps cold aloft (-10C to -11C at 500mb) which will produce a risk of a few strong and even isolated severe storms with gusty winds and hail.
Model time-heights and soundings suggest the low clouds will clear over the next few hours, leaving just some passing high clouds overnight. Pretty quiet weather in the short term as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the area. Memorial Day brings more dry conditions with warmer temps in the mid to upper 70s.
742 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Look for abundant sunshine with high temperatures into the lower to middle 70s for Memorial Day.
High pressure will be over the area with much lighter winds. Anomalous upper ridging currently building in the West and its building dome of heat is expected to advect into the Northern Plains as the ridge builds eastward across the region.
750 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will build from the northwest tonight and become centered across the area on Monday.
High pressure will be over the area with much lighter winds. Anomalous upper ridging currently buildingin the West and its building dome of heat is expected to advect into the Northern Plains as the ridge builds eastward across the region.
736 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week. As the upper trough axis shifts east of the area later this evening, stronger high pressure at the surface will build from the north, keeping NNE winds up at 5-10 mph all night, even a little stronger closer to the coast. Low level cool air advection will work in with the increasing high pressure, helping to drop low temperatures down into the mid to upper 50s most areas, except upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast.
607 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 (This evening through Monday) Convection forming on the High Plains this afternoon and evening will make a run east toward the forecast area this evening and affect the area overnight into tomorrow.
604 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 (This evening through Monday) At this hour, an upper-level ridge was breaking down across much of west Texas while an upper trough was digging in over Baja California. An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies overnight and push southeastward toward Wichita Falls. While a marginal wind threat is possible in the morning with any bowing segments, the bigger threat will be heavy rain as it moves slowly southeastward through the morning with the cold front.
606 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 Building high pressure will bring quiet weather tonight. JKL The short term continues to be dominated by a building ridge.
624 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Main focus on the short term is the chance for afternoon thunderstorms, with the low possibility of seeing a funnel cloud or even a weak landspout. While that is not a lot of CAPE, vast majority of it is in the lowest 3 km, which could lead to enhanced stretching potential as thunderstorms start to initiate.
929 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Low pressure moves away to the NNE tonight. High pressure returns Monday and continues near the local area through mid week. The FA will be in close proximity to a developing warm front just to the WNW. A broad trough aloft settles over the ern CONUS states Thu-Fri resulting in increased chcs once again for widespread pcpn (SHRAs/tstms). the timing of that trough to off the E coast remains uncertain attm. SCA's have been cancelled for the lower James River and Currituck Sound as of late this evening. High pressure returns for Monday and will gradually shift offshore through midweek. NW winds aob 15 kts for Mon become SSE through mid week as high pressure builds across the waters.
Mostly clear skies cover Middle Tennessee this evening as a ridge of high pressure sits to our west. High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee this evening.
Low level focus for additional convective development this evening to overnight should begin to shift further south as reinforced outflow shifts southward and cooler air mass across the forecast area gets a bit deeper. The base of the upper trough to our west is progged to cut off over Baja California by midweek with the remainder of the upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge over the West Coast will begin to expand eastward toward the Great Plains late in the week.
Winds will turn southwesterly today in advance of a frontal trough of low pressure shifting over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, in spite of a good deal of mid and high level cloudiness today, we should see temperatures top out in the lower 70s area-wide today. Lighter winds over the area Tuesday should support an inland moving lake breeze, thus cooler afternoon temperatures are likely near Lake Michigan.
Temperatures will be warmer than the past few, peaking in the low to mid 60s in the Catskills and the mid and upper 60s across the rest of the area. Some spots in the typically warmer valleys and Syracuse metro could near the 70F mark. Expect more sunshine Tuesday with otherwise dry and quiet weather as warmer temperatures peak in the 70s.
317 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure sits over the Northern Plains this morning, which has allowed temperatures to fall near freezing in low lying areas across western and north central North Dakota. The high will slowly drift off to the south and east today as a transient upper ridge passes through. Aside from this potential, Tuesday will mark the beginning of a warming trend with dry weather through the end of the work week as upper level ridging builds over the western CONUS and then shifts into the Northern Plains.
A few showers are possible this afternoon across the higher terrain, as well as Natrona and far southern Sweetwater counties where the most favorable upper level lift will be realized. Northwest flow continues on Monday as ridging begins to build across the western CONUS.
108 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Look for abundant sunshine with high temperatures into the lower to middle 70s for Memorial Day. Moderating low level thermal fields to provide warmer temperatures overnight than prior day and lower 70s for Memorial Day.
214 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Upper level ridging moving towards the area from the Pacific Northwest. Tuesday sees strong ridging moving into the western part of the state but low level flow is a bit more easterly so do not expect much of a temperature change.
A pleasant end to the Memorial Day weekend and the start of a shortened work week as ridging across the Southeast CONUS begins to amplify. The Tennessee Valley sits along the edge of the aformentioned ridge.
320 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021 (Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021) Today through Tuesday: Temperatures are starting out much more mild today, with early morning readings in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A 500mb ridge over central Mexico will continue to nose into deep south Texas through much of the short term. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the lower 80s at the beaches, upper 80s to lower 90s inland and the mid 90s across the west. A robust 500mb low will develop over Baja California by Tuesday with broad troughing over the Plains and modest ridging over the CWA. A cluster of weakening convection from the higher terrain of Mexico may drift across the deep south Texas late tonight into Tuesday.
Some mid and high level clouds will linger through the overnight hours and may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than we saw this morning. This trough is pushing mid-level moisture southward, encouraging cloud development and allowing for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Utah/Arizona border. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected to begin developing late Monday morning, first over the higher terrain and later in the day over the valleys.
and Tuesday Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning across northcentral Wisconsin along a weak warm front around 850 mb. More significant convection is expected during the afternoon and early evening hours as a vigorous upper trough and weak cold front move across the forecast area. Lows will be near or a little cooler then normal. Weak high pressure moves across Wisconsin Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon along a lake breeze.
206 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Low pressure lifts NE away from the region overnight. High pressure rebuilds into the region on Monday and continues near the local area through midweek. Aloft, neutral to slightly neg tilted upper level trough axis oriented from ON/QC into the Mid- Atlantic. Scattered cloud cover will remain overnight, gradually decreasing in coverage as high pressure slides east out of the OH Valley. The FA will be in close proximity to a developing warm front just to the WNW. A broad trough aloft settles over the ern CONUS states Thu-Fri resulting in increased chcs once again for widespread pcpn (SHRAs/tstms). the timing of that trough to off the E coast remains uncertain attm.
356 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Surface ridging emanating north of a 1028 mb anticyclone anchored over the lower Ohio valley will continue to govern conditions throughout the Memorial holiday. A dry and seasonable environment will mark conditions Tuesday as low- mid level ridging briefly takes hold.
Temperatures range from the upper 50s in central Louisiana to the lower 70s near the coast.
There is a fairly strong trough affecting the northern Plains and southern Canada. Then there is a closed low off the coast of northern Baja, with "dirty" southwest flow in place from the Four Corners region into our area. Mid level heights decrease a little in this period as a trough approaches from the northwest.