Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1053 AM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Skies have cleared in the wake of the trough that passed over the forecast area yesterday. The high pressure centered over the West Coast has been gradually nosing eastward into the region. Highs will also be on the rise over the next couple of days under the influence of the ridge.
104 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Aviation -- Light wintry precip today -- We will be monitoring freezing drizzle changing to snow set to arrive in time to be a nuisance for the morning drive. Models have been more bullish with precip production on our side of the lake, perhaps due to moisture contribution from Lake Michigan but also slight strengthening of the low. There has already been freezing drizzle developing between Traverse City and Ludington, and it is expected to spread toward southwest Michigan prior to daybreak. Behind the cold front which is currently passing through, progressively colder air at 850 mb and higher inversion heights will support an increasing likelihood of cloud glaciation and therefore a change to lake-effect snow showers by mid morning.
937 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 An upper level trof overhead will continue to provide support for light showers across the coastal waters as well as parts of St. Bumped afternoon highs up a bit for the I-10 corridor as temps were already running slightly warmer than anticipated. Mid and high clouds associated with a quickly passing upper level trof will persist across the region through late afternoon before clearing during the evening. Light to moderate northerly winds will prevail through the day becoming nearly calm overnight as high pressure settles over the region.
high pressure begins to set up over the south with clouds clearing through the morning and dry weather through the day.
High pressure will remain in place over the Northwest U.
In the wake of this front, a ridge of high pressure will build into the area and bring light west winds overnight. With some clearing as well, expect temperatures to fall into the lower teens (to single digits in some cases) as colder air filters into the area.
Temperatures have warmed into the 40s across most of the Midsouth with expected highs in the low 40s to mid 50s. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. The only thing we will see in regards to these waves will be a few clouds and cooler temperatures behind them.
This is in response to an approaching upper level trough from the west that has managed to pull adequate moisture aloft northward into the area. Expect this trough to shift east of the area by Tuesday. At the surface, transient, weak high pressure shifts into the ArkLaTex region helping to keep surface northerly winds over the area. Temperatures struggle to climb this afternoon only reaching the lower 50's for most locations. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer, rising into the upper 50's for most areas.
154 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Upper level ridging in control over the region today, with lee troughing bringing a tight surface pressure gradient along the foothills.
1111 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure brings dry weather today. A weak cold front tonight with light snow possible in the mountains tonight into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure. A few areas of patchy fog/freezing fog could form tonight along portions of southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia through this morning. Otherwise, dry weather will persist into the day today as high pressure exits to the northeast and a cold front approaches the area from the west, associated with a weak clipper system along the Great Lakes. Mid to upper 40s are expected for much of the lowlands and 30s to 40s along the higher elevations. Additionally, there will be a chance for some upslope snow showers and/or flurries along the higher elevations tonight.
A warming trend will continue through mid to late week as high pressure strengthens over the region with periods of dry offshore winds. Despite building high pressure overhead and developing offshore flow patchy fog and low clouds have developed early this morning. Another quiet morning across the region with slightly warmer and more humid conditions, especially across the North Bay. The expected region-wide warming trend remains on track for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
As a result temperatures are in the low 40s, but still well above freezing. Dry conditions and mostly above freezing temperatures are expected for the remainder of this week into the weekend.
1018 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 An area of low pressure will pass to our southeast today into tonight. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday. An area of high pressure will build into the region for midweek. 10:15 AM UPDATE: Above freezing temperatures being observed generally along/east of the I-95 corridor, with 20s to low 30s being observed for areas to the west. Towards the evening hours, could start to see the back edge of precip start to mix or change over to snow briefly as cooler air pushes in. Cold front swinging thru on Tuesday will bring a breezy day, but Pacific air mass behind it won't really be significantly cooler, and sunshine will predominate east of the mountains.
A positive-tilt trough axis sits over South TX today with meridional flow aloft over the Southern Plains bringing another brief round of cold and dry air advection for this evening. The low level CAA winds for tonight should ease up by 09Z, which should allow for some good radiational cooling in valleys, especially for the eastern Hill Country and parts of Central TX. After daybreak, when the winds become W/SW across all of the forecast area, the warming trend should accelerate, with maxes a good 5 degrees or more warmer than those for today.
300 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds today, but no expected precipitation.
High temperatures will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Extremely dry conditions will continue today into tonight as a northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while west-northwesterly downsloping only enhances a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels across the region. With the influence of westerly downsloping continuing through tonight, expect lows only down into the mid/upper 20s(F) to possibly the lower 30s(F). Look for highs well up into the 50s(F) Tuesday afternoon with the lower 60s(F) expected in south central Kansas. Winds will generally be from the west northwest shifting to the north tomorrow behind a cold front.
(This evening through Tuesday) As expected, cold front has limited afternoon temperatures a little with readings mainly in the mid 50s. Lows will drop into the 20s for most areas, Returning southerly winds by sunrise will keep some of the higher elevations across the Big Country up a few degrees higher than other locations.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 52 32 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 31 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 50 31 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 46 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Meanwhile, a warm front is well defined from portions of the Northern Plains into the Missouri River Valley, where with aid of downslope temps have climbed well into the 50s to even near 60 in some areas. This warm front will be tracking through our area Tuesday, and while it won't be quite this warm due to airmass modification and lingering snow cover in some areas it will be well above normal. Tuesday, any fog and stratus should dissipate/depart by PM as the downslope augmented warm front moves through.
/EC/ A seasonably cool and dry day is underway as rain along the Gulf coast shifts east and high pressure rebuilds over the forecast area. The upper level trough will shift east through tonight and its axis is expected to be oriented nearly along the Natchez Trace by sunrise. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper trough moved into the region overnight and is passing SE out of the area today. While this is happening a ridge sits over the West Coast. The ridge will begin to build into the area Tuesday but another trough swinging down across the Northern Plains will limit the high pressure. should end up a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
246 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 Afternoon temperatures have reached the lower 50s across much of the area, as winds have shifted to the north and cloud cover has decreased. Given how efficient the radiational cooling has been in recent nights, could see several locations drop to the lower 20s by the morning hours. With limited moisture, did not include any freezing fog in the forecast tonight. Be sure to bundle up and defrost your windshields for the morning commute! Near seasonable highs will come on Tuesday, as high pressure continues to nudge east. Overnight lows look to be near the freezing mark, with the greatest chances for sub-freezing temperatures over northeast AL.
110 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure anchored across the West will give Southern Arizona and Southeast California an extended stretch of sunny and mild weather. Meanwhile, a dome of mid-level high pressure extends along the California coastline. Over the next several days, the axis of this ridging will move little. This means that our area will sit on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
1114 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Light snow is possible overnight and Tuesday morning along the I 80 corridor, and in the ridges.
A mainly dry backdoor cold front will result in a wind shift at KTCC late Tuesday morning.
1027 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds today, but no expected precipitation.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Winds are out of the north this morning in the wake of a weak cold front that passed last night. Clear skies will allow for radiational cooling again tonight, but the light southwesterly winds will keep overnight lows a touch warmer than they were last night. The mild and dry weather will continue into Tuesday with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 60s as southwest flow increases ahead of an approaching (weak) cold front. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s under sunny skies.
As a result of the timing of the front and some snow cover, areas in our NW only reached around 30 degrees, while areas in our east were able to briefly warm to the low and mid 40s. A few spots around 50 are expected in the typical warmer locations.
A seasonably cool and dry day is underway as rain along the Gulf coast shifts east and high pressure rebuilds over the forecast area. The upper level trough will shift east through tonight and its axis is expected to be oriented nearly along the Natchez Trace by sunrise. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight.
Low pressure developing off the northeast Florida coast will lift northward, keeping conditions mainly dry today but skies cloudy through the late morning to early afternoon. A few showers may be possible along the Treasure Coast this evening along the tail of the trough axis. Visibilities will improve by late morning, but low clouds will take longer to clear, with only a short period of partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening before another weak cold front brings cloudy skies back. Another cold front will stall over central Florida tonight and tomorrow, bringing long duration stratus and showers. Low pressure off the northeast Florida coast will lift northward ahead of a cold front approaching Florida tonight.
A pleasant afternoon is ongoing across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with temperatures approaching the low 50s and relatively light winds are out of the west. North to northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern High Plains on Tuesday and will aid in ushering down a cold front on Tuesday morning. This is quite a weak cold front so little to no CAA is expected.
/issued 937 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ An upper level trof overhead will continue to provide support for light showers across the coastal waters as well as parts of St. Bumped afternoon highs up a bit for the I-10 corridor as temps were already running slightly warmer than anticipated. Mid and high clouds associated with a quickly passing upper level trof will persist across the region through late afternoon before clearing during the evening. Light to moderate northerly winds will prevail through the day becoming nearly calm overnight as high pressure settles over the region.
A little more in the way of wind is expected Tuesday with periodically breezy west-southwest winds developing ahead of a cold front.
205 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak area of low pressure has developed northeast of Florida off the Carolina coastline and will traverse northward along the Gulf Stream through Tuesday. Rain-free conditions expected today, but extensive low clouds on the backside of this low will stick around through the day. The big change in weather will be on Tuesday as deep troughing pushes eastward and a more significant frontal boundary moves across Florida.
Upper level trough swings across the area tonight into tomorrow morning. At the surface, cool/dry high pressure remains in place centered atop the Appalachians while a cold front shifts east into the MS Valley along the primary upper trough axis extending from the Great Lakes cyclone, all as warmer ridging is anchored over the northwest GOM.
1115 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 (The rest of today ) Scattered cloud cover associated with an upper level trof axis were currently pushing southeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this morning. mostly clear to a few passing high clouds are expected behind the exiting upper level trof axis. Far Northwest Arkansas looks to be slightly cooler.
1244 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front tonight with a chance of light snow in the mountains tonight into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure. A weak cold front will swing through the region late this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure system will build in on Tuesday.
A high amplitude blocking pattern will steer the storm track well to north across northern British Columbia and southeast Alaska. The Northern Rockies will remain on the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge centered off the Pacific Northwest coast through this weekend.
A cold front will begin to enter the Panhandles tomorrow morning and will switch winds to out of the north. A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles on Tuesday, but unlike the last one, there won't be much cold air with it.
High pressure at surface with a large upper level ridge off the Pacific coast with cool northwest flow aloft continues in the short term. Higher elevations may be warmer than low elevations Tuesday afternoon as inversion conditions develop.
1141 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 A positively tilted longwave trough stretches from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. An amplifying ridge aloft will slide over the region on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to around 0 to 6C over the forecast area. An upper level trough will dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night with a vertically stacked low pressure system stalling over Lake Superior.
1254 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front tonight with a chance of light snow in the mountains tonight into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure. A weak cold front will swing through the region late this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure system will build in on Tuesday.
This is the time frame that we will warm in the lowest 5,000ft to a sufficient level to stop the generation of lake induced stratocumulus. A ridge of high pressure will move through aloft on Tuesday which should mean a partly cloudy day. An upper trough will begin to nose in from the northwest Tuesday night but we expect to remain dry at this point. We will actually be above freezing on Tuesday in many areas and above normal at least Tuesday night with lows in the 20s in many areas.
The Four-States region remains under NW flow aloft behind a reinforcing trough. While temperatures will remain below freezing tonight area-wide, by tomorrow night some locations will be push 40 degrees.
106 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds today, but no expected precipitation.
Byrd No major changes to the extended as upper level ridge holds firm over the western CONUS with deep upper level trough over the east. So active northwest flow will remain over the region with a series of cold fronts sliding through.
(Tuesday through Monday) S-SW winds tomorrow ahead of the next weak cold front will support a notable warm up with high temps well above seasonal normals.
Ridge of high pressure anchored over the West Coast will keep conditions dry and mild, with periodic northerly breezes. Broad ridge across the eastern Pacific will slowly shift inland over the Great Basin by this weekend. Minor disturbances moving south down the frontside of the ridge will maintain a persistent north wind within the lower Colorado River Valley, specifically between Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu City.
Breezy northeast winds will persist today, especially for the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains.
Afternoon temperatures have reached the lower 50s across much of the area, as winds have shifted to the north and cloud cover has decreased. Given how efficient the radiational cooling has been in recent nights, could see several locations drop to the lower 20s by the morning hours. With limited moisture, did not include any freezing fog in the forecast tonight. Be sure to bundle up and defrost your windshields for the morning commute! Near seasonable highs will come on Tuesday, as high pressure continues to nudge east. Overnight lows look to be near the freezing mark, with the greatest chances for sub-freezing temperatures over northeast AL.
High pressure remains over eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho through the forecast period. Morning valley fog included in the forecast, especially across the Magic Valley and the Lower Treasure Valley. Light wind will remain for much of the area, though slight increases in wind will be present over the higher terrain as the weak disturbances move through.
A dry cold front will move through the area late tonight and downsloping winds will help boost highs tomorrow into the 50s and be near 60 degrees across south central Nebraska.
729 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front crosses overnight with a chance of light snow in the mountains late tonight into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure. A weak cold front will swing through the region late this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure system will build in on Tuesday.
A warming trend will continue through mid to late week as high pressure strengthens over the region with periods of dry offshore winds.
840 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Low pressure moves along our coast today and tonight. High pressure builds back over the area from the west late Tuesday through late week. Despite high pressure attempting to build in from the NW over Appalachia, guidance suggesting offshore frontal boundary will keep mid and upper level clouds in place through most of the aftn Tue. As a result, while dry weather prevails, sunshine will struggle to break through the cloud deck, keeping high temps in the low 50s.
It does look like a trough will finally push into the Valley by early Tuesday morning, pushing through the rest of the FA by late morning. There is not a strong push of cold advection with this, so most locations may not see their actually highs until behind this trough passage in the mid to late morning. The windiest area should be the higher elevations to the west of the Valley. Did stick in some higher chances for precipitation throughout this time frame, into the high chance to likely range. Models are showing the potential for road temperatures above freezing during the afternoon and early evening, before dropping again overnight. Northwest flow aloft will start the period and thickness values support warmer temperatures as the upper ridge begins to build over the region.
Patchy freezing fog is possible tonight and Tuesday night in northern and western valleys.
A mid-level trough will move over Montana this evening and continue southeastward over the High Plains states tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer tomorrow with highs in the low 60s in most locations.
This evening's low clouds have spread across the Lower Keys which is depicted by the GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery. The low clouds over the last several hours have dissipated but, there is a chance that more clouds could filter into the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. If low level clouds drift over the region tonight they should began to scatter by mid morning as the boundary layer becomes more mixed due to the sun and a slight uptick in winds ahead of an approaching cold front to our north.
As it stands, current forecast in the lower 20s for many is below the 25th percentile of guidance and didn't feel comfortable going much lower than that, so elected to hold off on any headlines. In addition, a cold front will be pushing through the area which may limit temperatures from really climbing (currently forecasting highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s).
The main forecast challenge for the short term revolves around timing of the fropa and the upper trough dropping in. GFS has been consistently slower with a deeper trough than the consensus models but has started to speed up on the 12z run. However, there are a few other solutions that are on the cooler/slower side as well. While the winds will be strong, temperatures will be a bit cooler, topping out around 50 in central SD, so RH will not be as low as today. If the trough drops down with the caa in the afternoon, highs will be reached in the morning and hold steady or fall during the afternoon.
Westerly winds across the Plains usher this warm air towards Kansas City lifting temperatures into the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Blustery conditions are anticipated across the area tomorrow as diurnal mixing and a weak cold front accelerate wind gusts to around 20-25 MPH. Flow turns northwesterly behind a weak cold front Tuesday evening which slowly resets temperatures back toward seasonal norms.
247 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Ridging along the Pacific Coast is deflecting the storm track well to the north and east. The northwest flow aloft will continue as ridging across the western US keeps most of the systems to our east.
845 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of the week. Given the warmer than expected trend, a slight increase seems justified. A mid-level trough will swing through the eastern CONUS Tuesday while high pressure builds in from the west at the surface.
526 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) As expected, cold front has limited afternoon temperatures a little with readings mainly in the mid 50s. Lows will drop into the 20s for most areas, Returning southerly winds by sunrise will keep some of the higher elevations across the Big Country up a few degrees higher than other locations.
841 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Light snow is possible overnight and Tuesday morning along the I 80 corridor and in the ridges.
530 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 For the 08/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail through the period under high pressure entering from the west. The Four-States region remains under NW flow aloft behind a reinforcing trough. While temperatures will remain below freezing tonight area-wide, by tomorrow night some locations will be push 40 degrees.
530 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate with widespread VFR conditions expected.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The 500mb trough axis works offshore tonight into Tuesday morning, with weak mid level high pressure building into Tuesday night. As high pressure builds, expect winds to diminish and radiational cooling to help lows dip back into the 30s across the ranchlands both tonight and Tuesday night, with lows in the low 40s across the RGV.