Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
330 AM PST THU FEB 19 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS RIDING OVER IT AND THROUGH IT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 413 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR CALM WINDS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES. SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG A WACO/HUNTSVILLE/LAKE CHARLES LA LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEX WHICH WILL REACH THE AREA BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING AND HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
633 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
413 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR CALM WINDS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES. SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG A WACO/HUNTSVILLE/LAKE CHARLES LA LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEX WHICH WILL REACH THE AREA BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING AND HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
412 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPS JUMP UP INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMPLETE WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY SAT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
625 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2015 The high wind warning has been cancelled for the Rocky Mountain Front as wind speeds have dropped well below criteria for a high wind warning.
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST AR MAY SEE SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS & LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER E AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING S-SE WINDS. MODELS PROG THE LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35-40KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
426 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES. A STG WARM FRONT OVER SE TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. AND ERASURE OF LOW LVL INVERSION AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO AREA.
720 AM MST THU FEB 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE WAVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC PORTENDS THE NEXT DOWNSTREAM TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN REGION AND CLOSE TO AZ.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAS LED TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH CRANE LAKE DOWN TO -35F AS OF 230 AM AND SEVERAL OTHER SITES AROUND -30F. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH TO AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
918 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
Lee trough will develop today, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient and a corresponding increase in surface winds.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS IT WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS.
SFC OBS INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS INDEED PASSED THE AREA WITH NERLY WINDS NOW PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TO 35-40KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO WIND SHEAR IF THE SFC WINDS DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY EARLY FRI MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER E AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING S-SE WINDS. MODELS PROG THE LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35-40KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM BACK TO THE WARM READINGS WE SAW LAST WEEK DUE TO COOLER AIR FILTERING ACROSS OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SHELTERED VALLEY SPOTS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVEN AS A 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY AS A RESULT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES FAR SE KS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRI. COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FAR SE KS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS.
240 AM PST THU FEB 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS FOR TEMPS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER NERN CO.
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. AND A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AT THE COAST.
LOOKS LIKE WINDS DECREASE TO BELOW ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS THE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY WHILE ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BEING TOPPED OFF BY PACIFIC ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE MORNING. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE IN THE AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP AND BRING SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THEN TOWARD THE ELKS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ASCENT SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE WAY TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH THE SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY LOW MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW IN ITS WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING IN THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. FRIDAY NIGHT ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING.
557 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA NOW SLIPPING EAST. AND HOLDING IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY CREEP BY LATE NIGHT. SO FOR NOW WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 DEGREES.
CHANGING OVER TO WARNING EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE RIDGES. THE ARCTIC AIR ALOFT EXITS FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGES MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN ERNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THANKS TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HEADING TOWARD THE NJ COAST.
/ISSUED 426 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015/ VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES. A STG WARM FRONT OVER SE TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. AND ERASURE OF LOW LVL INVERSION AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO AREA.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
1003 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
TOMORROW MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 20KT RANGE. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER TODAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
This will keep temperatures warmer overnight, with lows generally in the lower 40s.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS IMPROVING CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.
320 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AND NOW IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE LOTS OF WIND SHIFTS AND AT LEAST TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS.
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
1257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
828 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR LAS VEGAS WHERE A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS. AND THE FACT THAT A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FAR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER.
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S. CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. BUT VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
PICKING UP PACE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT.
251 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT. SO THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. ON THE HIGH END. WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER SOUTH. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
THE CLOSED LOW HAS HELPED BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR REGION TODAY BUT WL BECOME LESS OF AN IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. EXPECT MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS TRACK THE STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND IT. EXPECT PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
317 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
244 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS A SPLITTING TROUGH WITH WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE CWA SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DENVER IN THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
THE NEXT CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND SHOWERS /WITH POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE TERMINALS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GIVEN THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND THE PROMISE OF CLOUD COVER, DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO AM TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS.
218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.
Lower Pacific moisture was streaming into the nation's midsection this morning in advance of a large upper level low centered over the Desert Southwest. We think this will continue to saturate the lower trop, setting up additional rainfall later this afternoon. Areas along and north of Interstate 44 will experience the best chances for measurable rain today, with the lower chances in far south central Missouri. A cold front will shift across the region on Sunday, cooling temperatures sufficiently for a brief change over to snow.
PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE LOWER 40S. WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY.
For this afternoon and evening, precipitation type will be complex with surface temperatures hovering in the 30s and the observed freezing level varying between 500 and 1000 ft AGL near KEAX. Slightly cooler surface temperatures across far northwest MO have supported a mix with or transition to snow this afternoon, and do not expect profiles to change significantly during the remainder of the afternoon or the evening.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S AND LOWER. BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA. MASSIVE SW CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
1055 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015 Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana, with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the front. The big forecast problem is what will happen overnight as some guidance develops VFR conditions while other guidance lowers ceilings to IFR and also develops IFR visibilities in freezing fog. Like with the plains conditions Sunday morning could range anywhere from VFR to IFR in freezing fog.
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE-OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE SOUTH. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF.
However, improvement into MVFR to VFR range is expected Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front. /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Lows tomorrow morning will only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.
1230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY.
AND SUNDAY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA SECTOR OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FOCUS TODAY WILL BE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WARM START THIS MORNING WILL GET MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BOOST DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY RESIDES. THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTH.
131 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOSTLY END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. IN ADDITION TO A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FAR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RAIN MOVES IN TNITE AT BPT AND AEX WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
407 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
212 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
1249 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
I TOOK SNOW OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. OPTED TO STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY STRONG 850MB FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
233 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CO THIS EVENING AND A DEEPER CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NW MEXICO. WITH THE FLOW STRETCHED BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER WY AND THE UPPER PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING DUE SOUTH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGHS IN THESE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
FIRTS TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.