Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Still expecting storm to increase in coverage along the cold front that is just now beginning to move into our far northwest zones but an increase in coverage does not necessarily mean an increase in intensity. /issued 443 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022/ VFR conditions prevailing attm across all our terminal locations but that will change much later this evening into the overnight hours as convection should be organized along a strong cold front. Look for a rapid return to VFR conditions with the passage of the cold front but post frontal CU and AC should hang around through much of the day Monday with clearing late across our northwest airspace. S winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts will preceed the cold front this evening and tonight with post frontal winds from the northwest with similar speeds.
Broad area of precipitation continues to spread northeast across eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of a large trough axis currently over the Colorado/New Mexico border. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for Monday with highs in the 30s to near 40.
936 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface remains in place over the region. Upper-level ridging remains in place over the region, while at the surface, high pressure centered to our east near Bermuda will continue to produce southerly winds generally in the 3-8mph range. High pressure aloft will remain in place on Monday for near record high temperatures.
The mix will most likely feature snow, rain and drizzle as the column will be near or slightly above 0C in the lowest 8,000ft. We are not thinking that we have a big freezing rain issue with this system as the warm nose is not significant for melting, and surface temperatures are very marginal around or even slightly above 32F at the surface. Also, the temperatures will be near to above freezing, so we believe road conditions will be more on the wet side vs the icy side.
353 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Broad area of precipitation continues to spread northeast across eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of a large trough axis currently over the Colorado/New Mexico border. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for Monday with highs in the 30s to near 40.
Surface maps indicate the low pressure system that brought some wintry weather to our area yesterday is out of here with the center of the low over Quebec. A high pressure system continues to move in from the northwest and will become centered over the Rockies/High Plains through Monday before moving southeast Monday evening.
Forecast remains on track, with high pressure ridging remaining in place. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s across the north and along the interior, with mid to upper 60s from Melbourne southward.
357 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across Montana. Dry weather continues on Monday with subsidence behind upper trof.
A cool and breezy weather pattern will remain in place today, then offshore flow beneath high pressure aloft will build in across the region for the early portion of work week.
145 PM PST Sun Mar 6 2022 Dry and warmer conditions will prevail this week.
18z data has the cold front running from the eastern Great Lakes into northern Arkansas. With warm air still aloft across the southeast third of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix is expected to develop into a mix of freezing rain and snow while snow continues across the northwest two thirds of the area. If this occurs, then precipitation amounts 'may' be on the low side across the southeast third of the area. Any lingering freezing rain will quickly turn over to all snow around sunrise Monday with snow ending from southwest to northeast during the morning hours.
1244 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 VFR prevails through the morning hours with high pressure in still in control.
Afternoon temperatures will struggle into the lower 40s at most locales, which is 10-15 degrees below normal for early March.
Heavy rain will remain a threat with the high moisture levels, especially south where training of heavier storms may occur.
1011 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across Montana. Dry weather continues on Monday with subsidence behind upper trof.
Snow showers associated with an upper trough were winding down as the trough moves southward and out of the area this evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer and winds will be lighter.
Earlier showers that skirted the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee have all moved to our north and this should leave us rain-free until the next round of activity enters the mid state after midnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Surface winds are starting to increase ahead of an approaching cold front, and we're also experiencing some LLWS as the low-level jet is also increasing with this system moving in. Toward morning, a cold front will enter Middle Tennessee and the HRRR has consistently shown an organized line of convection with the front that will reach CKV around 12Z and be gone from CSV by 18Z.
919 PM PST Sun Mar 6 2022 Dry and warmer conditions will prevail this week.
1051 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed through the remainder of far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas counties this evening with the tornado threat quickly diminishing. A few severe storms will remain possible along/north of cold front for the remainder of the evening hours as elevated CAPE remains in the 500-750 J/kg range. Also added low snow chances across far northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border this evening as temperatures fall to near freezing.
114 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Well above normal temperatures will continue Monday as offshore high pressure maintains southerly winds.
A slight warming trend will occur through early in the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The synoptic scale pattern features a high amplitude 582dm ridge just offshore and the 552dm low pressure system over the intermountain west that recently exited California. Temperatures were up roughly 3 to 7 degrees versus yesterday as a consequence of the expanding influence of the ridge, while humidities were down due in part to the dry northerly flow aloft. Tomorrow is expected to run another 3 to 7 degrees warmer than today with lower humidity values and light to locally breezy northerly flow bookending the day. This feature and the broader trough over the Rockies and northern Plains will result in cooling aloft, brining temperatures back to near seasonal averages.
With some additional forcing from a trailing upper low, some isolated snow showers could make their way into the east/southeast portions of the forecast area. A mostly quiet week is expected with low-amplitude troughing covering much of the CONUS.
The low levels have finally moistened enough as snow has been falling aloft for several hours now around KOMA and KLNK, with just flurries reaching the ground before that. Broad area of precipitation continues to spread northeast across eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of a large trough axis currently over the Colorado/New Mexico border. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for Monday with highs in the 30s to near 40.
138 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected with the passage of a low pressure system.
238 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Cold front and upper trough continue to approach from the west, with showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the front.
Fairly high confidence on the timing of the initial line of storms, but less confident on when the rain will end on the backside of the system, and how long the lower ceilings will last. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 41 60 46 62 / 90 40 20 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 41 59 44 58 / 90 50 10 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 72 39 59 44 60 / 90 40 10 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 39 58 43 56 / 90 60 10 90 70 TN.
Dry weather through Monday with an upper ridge offshore. The ridge will weaken on Monday. The upper ridge will weaken on Monday.
Expect clearing skies today, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure moves along the front range of the Rockies into the plains. The GFS is the fastest solution in bringing a chance of rain and rain changing to a wintry mix of accumulating snow/freezing rain/drizzle for portions of central KS for late Wed night through Thu morning.
A cold front will swing through the region Monday, bringing the chance for showers.
1015 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Cold front continues to make very slow progress south and east into our airspace from the northwest. The boundary is just west of our western most terminals attm and convection is very spotty but still think we will see an uptick in overall storm coverage as the cold front encounters slightly more favorable moisture across our region overnight. S winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts will preceed the cold front this evening and tonight with post frontal winds from the northwest with similar speeds. Still expecting storm to increase in coverage along the cold front that is just now beginning to move into our far northwest zones but an increase in coverage does not necessarily mean an increase in intensity.
839 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 The storm system which has impacted much of our area today is now centered over Western Kansas while weak ridging aloft and subsidence moving into Colorado. The next upper trof will spread into Colorado Monday afternoon with light snow redeveloping in the mountains and trying to push across the plains (mainly south of Denver) late afternoon. The main area of snow is shifting southeast as the trough axis nears Denver. Another little trough will move from Idaho towards the Four Corners tomorrow, providing more cold air aloft and creating a little lift over central Colorado.
These clouds and flurries will continue to move south and east across the forecast area this morning as a small area of upper level ridging moves into the region from the northwest. This upper level high pressure will allow skies to clear again and temperatures to warm to near normal values this afternoon with a breezy southwesterly wind. As this system approaches ND later this afternoon and into the evening, cloud cover will increase again with another chance for light snow showers or flurries across western and central ND as the clipper's warm front moves through.
109 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface remains in place over the region. Upper-level ridging remains in place over the region, while at the surface, high pressure centered to our east near Bermuda will continue to produce southerly winds generally in the 3-8mph range. High pressure aloft will remain in place on Monday for near record high temperatures.
1050 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda stretches west across northern Florida and the Southeast US. Locations north of the island chain have slightly cooler SSTs, which has resulted in decoupling of the winds. From synopsis, high pressure centered near Bermuda continues to slide eastward into the central Atlantic.
1033 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Mid level S/W moving across the central plains will send a cold front southward across the state tonight. Expect MVFR Ceilings to develop over most areas except far west overnight as moisture pools ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will move through a LRD-VCT line around 11z and CRP by 14z.
Cold front slowly pushing through the area was located between HOB and INK at 04z.
Most of this activity is in the vicinity of a cold front which is currently just west of the river. As the cold front moves across the remainder of the Mid-South this morning, more showers and thunderstorms will develop and move through the area. Temperatures will vary quite a bit depending on what side of the front you are at with highs ranging from the lower 50s to lower 70s. High pressure will build into the region tonight bringing much cooler air into the region.
306 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area today, with winds gradually shifting from northwest to southwest through the day. This will aid in bring some slightly warmer air into the region. The high gets pushed southward tonight ahead of a frontal boundary that looks to slide across the area late tonight/Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday may be reached around midday or so before slowly falling during the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the northwest behind the exiting front.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny and milder as winds become south ahead of a cold front.
High pressure is centered just offshore and the weather will stay dry through today. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night for a return of rain and mountain snow.
Current surface analysis shows cold front located from north of the Memphis metro area to near Pine Bluff to east of Camden and El Dorado. Once the front clears the area in the next few hours, High pressure will move in, with colder temperatures noted. Low pressure will form along the boundary and move northeastward as a mid-level trough kicks out of Mexico and toward the southeast conus.
212 AM PST Mon Mar 7 2022 Temperatures warm early this week with gusty winds over Sierra ridges into early Tuesday.
Most of this activity is in the vicinity of a cold front which is currently just west of the river. As the cold front moves across the remainder of the Mid-South this morning, more showers and thunderstorms will develop and move through the area. Temperatures will vary quite a bit depending on what side of the front you are at with highs ranging from the lower 50s to lower 70s. High pressure will build into the region tonight bringing much cooler air into the region. On Tuesday, as the front stalls out along the Gulf Coast, low pressure is expected to develop along the front and drag the front back north.
While high cloudiness may affect overnight lows and keep them warmer, with winds becoming lighter toward sunrise and dew points in the lower 20s, most areas should still fall near or slightly below the freezing mark.
Winds will be lighter today as high pressure settles in at the sfc, and then will turn more westerly this evening. Aloft flow will become more zonal as the upper trof from this past system continues to push east.
Heavy rain will remain a threat with the high moisture levels, especially south where training of heavier storms may occur. Broad upper troughing will continue early in the extended.
401 AM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 High pressure will give way to a cold front that moves through the region tonight, leading to an increase in winds later today as well as an increased chance of precip.
High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area today, with winds gradually shifting from northwest to southwest through the day. This will aid in bring some slightly warmer air into the region. The high gets pushed southward tonight ahead of a frontal boundary that looks to slide across the area late tonight/Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday may be reached around midday or so before slowly falling during the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the northwest behind the exiting front.
A cold front currently draped across the I-70 corridor from east- central Utah and west-central Colorado drove snow levels down to valley floors early this morning. By noon, the mid-level low is on track to dive into northeast Utah, with the positively tilted trough axis draped toward south-central Utah. Instability will maximize out ahead of the trough's axis this afternoon, generally focused over the central and southern mountains of western Colorado. However, the northern San Juans are favored for a few "bonus inches" this evening once the cold front drives across the southern CWA. The low drives southeast of the CWA tonight, giving the West Slope a break from this weekend's sporadic winter weather.
434 AM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Subsidence behind the departing upper trough will lead to mostly sunny and breezy weather today. Temperatures will be a little warmer, with afternoon highs mainly in the 30s. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move southward across the forecast area later tonight into early Tuesday. Enhanced lift and marginal moisture may result in a period of light snow with the passage of the cold front.
Arctic cold front to bring snow, gusty winds, and colder.
As the low pressure system moves across the region pressure gradients increase, mixing through the lower layers increase, and cold air advection is strong. This happens as the cold front from the system sweeps through during late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Chances for snow accompany the cold front passage.
A robust high pressure stretching from northern Florida to the central Atlantic waters is inducing strong easterly winds that is advecting moisture into the lower boundary layer and creating enough lift to produce isolated showers. The island chains, near-shore, and offshore waters remain in a tight pressure gradient due to the intense high pressure, with observed winds near the Straits of Florida ranging from 20 to 22 knots and 10 to 15 knots over land areas. Winds will slowly diminish today as the high slides southward ahead of a cold front that will move into the Ohio River Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley. THe low level moisture and scant instability might produce isolated thunderstorms tonight and early Tuesday morning. Pops, the remainder of the week is near 20% due to mid level ridging and light veering winds.
956 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will produce mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and unseasonably warm temperatures once again today. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mostly sunny skies and temperatures already in the low to mid 70s. Overall benign boating conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure ridges across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Generally quiet weather expected today, followed by a chance for light precipitation on Tuesday with a cold front. Ahead of the associated cold front, highs should get into the mid 20s to mid 30s, with fairly strong warm air advection ahead of it.
Below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night as well, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows in the lower 20s.
High temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the upper 30s in eastern areas.
Key Points: - Dry few days ahead with temperatures creeping back into the low 50s.
Cold front and upper trough continue to approach from the west, with showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the front. Lows tonight will hit freezing or just below, and highs Tuesday will be in the mid 50s.
A strong cold front arriving from Canada late this afternoon will produce a burst of snow across North-central Montana.
240 AM PST Mon Mar 7 2022 After experiencing near freezing temperatures for a day or two, dry and mild conditions will prevail this week. While freezing temperatures will be felt early on, the air-mass will modify and slowly warm during the week. The lack of cloud cover will support the cooling of temperatures down toward the freezing mark. By the end of the week and into the weekend, ensemble cluster analysis show a ridge attempting the shift onto the West Coast. Therefore, confidence in growing that a ridge may dominate the West Coast as we approach the weekend.
Much of interior NWRN CA saw another round of freezing temperatures overnight with frost conditions for the coast. High pressure remains stationary off the West Coast for the next few days, which should bring a similar pattern of warmer afternoon highs and breezy north winds in the afternoons.
730 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with the passage of a low pressure system today. Cooler temperatures and snow showers return late tonight into Tuesday behind a cold front. This is in response to crossing low pressure, which will drag a cold front across the Upr OH later today. The threat for severe weather will diminish late tonight as the cold front advances into central PA. Snow shower activity should wrap up late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds and winds shift from the west. As high pressure skirts to the east, warm air is expected to advance into the region as winds shift from the southwest Tuesday night; temps will linger a few degrees above the climatological average.
A cold front tied to an upper trough will push through the area from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Winds turn to out of the northwest behind the front and elevate into the teens with gusts into the low 20s to finish out the afternoon hours.
For highs, trended toward the cooler solutions, MET and EC, given the amount of deep snow pack across a majority of the area.
A strong cold front has moved through the area, dropping temperatures by 20 to 30 degrees. Tonight remains chilly with most locations expected to fall to near or below freezing with high clouds lingering across the area.
221 AM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Subsidence behind the departing upper trough will lead to mostly sunny and breezy weather today. Temperatures will be a little warmer, with afternoon highs mainly in the 30s. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move southward across the forecast area later tonight into early Tuesday. Enhanced lift and marginal moisture may result in a period of light snow with the passage of the cold front.
(The rest of today ) Cold front has pushed well off to the east this morning.
Light freezing drizzle or snow possible through sunrise this morning, particularly north of the Highway 54 corridor.
331 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Key Points: - Dry few days ahead with temperatures creeping back into the low 50s.
Cold front that is bringing a line of strong to severe thunderstorm to portions of western KY early today will continue to sweep east/southeast out of the forecast area in the next hour or so. Much cooler and drier air into the region from northwest to southeast this morning.
406 AM PST Mon Mar 7 2022 Dry and warmer for early this week with gusty Santa Ana winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains.
325 AM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 A strong cold front arriving from Canada late this afternoon will produce a burst of snow across North-central Montana.
Hersey has the high total so far with a report of 6 inches of storm total snow. With some lift in the cloud layer and an unsaturated DGZ overnight the bigger concern may be a bit of freezing drizzle in the lakeshore counties tonight.
Temperatures are also expected to be a few degrees warmer (highs in the 40s and low 50s) than today but still below normal for this time of year.
1039 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Low pressure will track across northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, with the trailing cold front passing through the central and eastern part of the state late today.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Temps are considerably cooler today for most of the forecast area as overnight's cold front has advected in some pretty chilly air for the time of year. Said trough will kick east starting tonight with positioning past our general longitude by tomorrow evening.
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front has pushed well off to the east this morning.
232 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Cold front just moved through the Plateau over the past hour. Colder with lows near freezing tonight.
230 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 A strong cold front has pushed through leaving colder temperatures in place across central Illinois. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s tonight then warm into the lower to mid 40s Tuesday.
225 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 The high pressure system over the area earlier today is shifting off towards the southeast.