Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The strong upper level ridge that has been anchored over the eastern CONUS for the last week or so does begin to break down today with a weak frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley and a tropical system in the Caribbean Sea. But, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across our area again today and tonight.
Friday will be warmer and breezier ahead of a cold front that should push into the region Friday night.
The upper low centered north of Utah today will turn back to the southeast and cross northern Utah Thursday night through early Friday.
The ridge that has been in control of our weather has flattened with the axis shifting to the southeast. Meanwhile, a weak baroclinic zone, currently draped across the lower Lakes, will sag southeast into central Ohio this afternoon. While an isolated shower is possible across the remainder of southeast Ohio this morning and northern West Virginia this afternoon, the bulk of the activity should focus along the axis of mid level lift, where the highest pops were coded up. Temperatures were kept close to higher side of guidance across southern zones and cooler across northern zones. A frontal boundary across our northern counties will continue to lift northward as a warm front through the period in response to warm air advection associated with an upstream frontal system lifting through the Great Lakes.
350 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will push south across the forecast area today. then lift north as a warm front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak cold front near a FDY to ERI line. Models continue to lift front back north as a warm front, but models a little slower with the front. Showers are expected to lift northward with the warm front Friday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Inverted trough continues to drift westward, allowing drier air to begin to develop into the region later this afternoon.
307 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A cold front is advancing south across central New York early this morning. A weak cold front is pushing southeast through the area early this morning. Temperatures remain on the warm side with lows tonight in the 50s and highs Friday from the mid 60s to the low 70s. A weak frontal boundary to our south Thursday evening, will come back slowly northward as a warm front Friday-Friday night, providing at least scattered showers.
653 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A relatively weak cold front over northern Pennsylvania early today will drift slowly to the south and stall out across the southern part of the state tonight into Friday. the front will lift slowly to the north as a warm front heading into the upcoming weekend.
A double upper jet structure moves across Wisconsin today and tonight ahead of a trough moving into the northern Rockies. looks like any precipitation today would be sprinkles due to the low level dry air.
7" and dewpoints about 8-10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago--coupled with subsidence associated with high pressure overhead, will result in tranquil weather as we close out the week.
237 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
420 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Partly sunny and warmer than average temperatures are expected today with weak high pressure building into the region.
A low pressure system currently over Lemhi county will slowly move off to the east throughout the day and tonight. Upper level winds will be increasing on ahead of an approaching cold front. The winds continue to increase throughout the night, but the strongest winds will be mainly confined to the higher terrain.
643 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The pattern in the short term will be dominated by roughly zonal flow across the central and northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with an elongated ridge axis from the southern Plains to TN Valley and Carolinas. With average high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, today's highs again will be several degrees above normal. Afternoon highs in the lower and mid 80s will be about 10 degrees warmer than normal.
Synopsis: short term begins with a trough running from the central Idaho through southern Montana and into the Great lakes. Right above this a ridge sits running from Oregon through southern British Columbia and then spilling out on the High Plains of Alberta into a chinook. Yet another larger trough is exiting the Gulf of Alaska for northern British Columbia. Today through Tonight: trough lifting into the region this morning is expected to lose steam and then reverse to the south as the ridge to the north presses down on it. Friday: Ridge should be in full swing across the area with some extra downslope from a weak chinook.
/issued 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ The forecast area remains dominated by an upper ridge through the period. although the ridge slides westward a bit by Thursday. Friday will bring warm temperatures and continued dry weather as high pressure maintains a grip on the area.
The ArkLaMiss will remain under the influence of broad ridging with the ridge initially centered over central Texas at the start of the period. Despite the center of the ridge being well to our west, anomalously high mid-level heights and temps will keep warm daytime high temps in the upper 80s across much of the region. The overnight period will be primed for radiational cooling with light to calm winds under a relaxed surface pressure gradient and clear skies with low temps dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s.
347 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 An upper level trough will extend fm the nrn Rockies into the Great Basin with Sw flow aloft over nrn CO. Highs this aftn will range will mainly be in the 60s over nern CO except over srn Lincoln county where temps may reach the lower to mid 70s. For tonight the upper level trough will begin to move east with an increase in mid lvl ascent overnight. The main batch of energy is expected to push east through the afternoon, as will the highest PoPs.
532 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will move across the area today into Friday.
Prior discussion below: Tonight and Thursday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to bring quiet weather to the forecast area over the next 24 hours.
High pressure will slowly build over the region for the next several days bringing a warming trend. On Friday, an increased offshore flow will develop with gusty winds over the Kern County Mountain ridges. Satellite images show a disturbance over N CA merging into a trough across the Great Basin area. Although a bit warmer than yesterday. Models prog for the basin trough to start moving east tonight while an upper ridge build behind across the pacific NW.
A warmer and drier short term is expected as the high PWAT moisture plume that moved over the region the last couple days will continue to push westward and the center of an H5 high settles over the area. The result will likely be similar isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms like our previous couple days but along the periphery of the high, which at this point should be west of the Rio Grande and south of our CWA. Thus, highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected today, with highs increasing 2-3 degrees each day into the weekend.
Latest short range model guidance and observation trends indicate dense fog is likely especially in the favored upslope locations along the Cheyenne Ridge through midnight. Fog should begin to lift from the west later tonight as a cold front pushes in from the west. This trough should clear out the low clouds overnight as winds behind it turn downslope. Warmer and mainly dry weather expected Thursday with clouds increasing again in the afternoon as an impulse moves into the central Rockys. Showers continuing for much of the day Friday as the aforementioned upper low opens into a trough and subsequently swings across the area late Friday.
422 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to influence the weather across the CWFA through Friday. Currently, there is a weakness in the upper ridge across the far southern CWFA, but stronger ridging from the west will build in overnight and Friday. At the surface, the wedging high pressure will remain in place, but will weaken through the period. ECMWF/GFS are in better agreement that ridging in the Atlantic will keep the cyclone closer to the western portion of the current NHC cone of uncertainty through this weekend.
Cutoff upper level low that brought precipitation to many areas from Billings west overnight, will remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through mid-day Friday.
As for temps today, with the front lifting north as a warm front, breaks in clouds are expected today across the srn half or so of the CWA. Have trended twd the warmer guidance tonight again with sly flow across the area. Southerly surface winds will lead to warmer high temperatures on Friday, plus more solar insolation is expected due to less cloud cover at least across southeast MO and southwest IL.
450 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A relatively dry southwest flow continued over the region early this morning as the area remained between low pressure over the northwestern U. and a broad expanse of high pressure over south-central and southeastern U. A stalled cold front remained in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor which will make forecast highs a bit of challenge today. Despite being a fairly deep trough, the relative dryness of the airmass of the area will limit showers and thunderstorms with Colorado's northern and central mountains favored. Chances elsewhere and in the lower elevations will be limited to non-existent. Numerical guidance was warmer but favored colder blended bias corrected forecast.
126 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A cold front is draped nearby the region overnight with plenty of moisture, but only a few scattered weak showers that will be able to push through. Areas north of US 30 will remain mainly dry/cooler as high pressure nudges in post-frontal. An upper low over Utah will finally get a kick east in response to a digging jet over the Northeast Pacific.
With high pressure to the north and the aforementioned low pressure system, winds are northeast to east at 20 to 25 knots with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 knots. A small area of low pressure over the Straits of Florida beyond 30 nm south of the Lower Keys will continue to westward into the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico by this afternoon and further westward tonight. Meanwhile, a formidable and large region of high pressure will remain in place over the mid Atlantic coast, southward down the Sunshine State. Thereafter, a western Atlantic ridge will nose into our county warning area.
The exception is from the Peoria area northward, where a weak bubble of high pressure has allowed slightly drier air to filter in from the N/NE. with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Meanwhile, south of the boundary where light southerly flow will persist, highs will reach the lower 80s around Flora and Lawrenceville.
452 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will be parked over West Central Texas during the next 24 hours, bringing dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures.
653 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
As trough moves into the western Plains on Friday, surface cyclogenesis will take place over Colorado.
As high pressure over TX retrogrades west and low pressure slides east to our north, a cold front will be pushed into the region on Friday. The low level jet will develop during the early evening hours and have strong northerly winds behind the front bumping into strong southwesterly winds ahead of it. As the move into the weekend, the closed low opens up as it crosses the Plains and allows us to have dry northwest flow aloft.
417 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 An upper level high centered over central Texas will shift westward today and into northern Mexico by tonight. Clockwise circulation around the high should keep the greater deep layer moisture and instability in our western CWA where isolated to widely scattered storms are possible today.
639 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through most of this week.
Upper low will gradually weaken in central Idaho today but will continue to generate scattered light rain and snow showers in eastern Valley County, ID. The low will shift into WY and MT tonight, bringing clearing skies and cold temps to our area under northerly flow aloft. Rapid warming with sunny skies is expected Friday as a short wave upper ridge comes in from the northwest.
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Main concerns will be possible fog development tonight, especially in our southwest as a warm front approaches. Also, as the warm front approaches, chances for rain will increase. We will also likely begin the first waves of potentially heavy rain as we have good moisture transport by tomorrow, and hence issued a Flood Watch for our southeastern CWA as a cold front works its way slowly southeast.
615 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will push south across the forecast area today. then lift north as a warm front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak cold front near a FDY to ERI line. Models continue to lift front back north as a warm front, but models a little slower with the front. Showers are expected to lift northward with the warm front Friday night.
341 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will move across the area today into Friday.
High pressure remains in control and a return to prevailing VFR anticipated after 05/13-14Z with BKN clouds north and BKN to SCT clouds south through the day and into evening. As drier air filters in through the low levels of the atmosphere, clouds across southeastern AR should begin to erode more, with FEW possible at KLLQ/KPBF by late this evening. with high pressure building over the area.
As a result, full or nearly full insolation will support overachieving high temps ranging from the low 70s in the Saginaw Valley to approaching 80 in portions of the Metro Area.
342 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak frontal system will wash out just to our north today, leaving most of the region under the influence of weak high pressure this afternoon through Friday night.
1201 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Cold front has moved south to near a Springfield, Illinois to Columbia, Missouri line this afternoon. Highs tomorrow will still be able rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s and the front moves back north as a warm front late in the day. Britt A weak warm front along the Iowa and Missouri state line will continue to slowly lift north on Thursday night. A low with attendant cold front will begin moving toward the region from the Great Plains on Friday.
Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sandwiched between a strong upper level low over the northern Great Basin and a flat ridge of high pressure over West Texas. The upper level low over the northern Great Basin will be filling and lifting on Friday with a sfc front driving south across the region.
518 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A relatively weak cold front over northern Pennsylvania early today will drift slowly to the south and stall out across the southern part of the state tonight into Friday. the front will lift slowly to the north as a warm front heading into the upcoming weekend.
227 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A synoptic scale ridge that has been in place across the Southeast over the past several days will continue to supress convective updrafts today with a strong capping inversion in place in the low levels. After some patchy morning fog underneath high cirrus clouds dissipates, the TN Valley should warm nicely into the low 80s with light easterly winds keeping dewpoints generally below 60 degrees. The trough moving across the Intermountain West will be moving across the central/southern Plains bringing the potential for severe weather over TX/OK/KS region on Friday. Meanwhile, further east, the ridge will be moving towards the east becoming centered north of the Bahamas.
612 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
This pattern will continue throughout the evening as low and mid level Gulf moisture wraps around the upper level high pressure centered over Texas. Friday begins a drying trend as the upper level high begins to elongate and stretch west to east across the southern portion of the US. Subsidence under the high will create clear skies, warmer high temps and drier conditions. Friday, as the area dries out, a quick moving upper level trough (currently positioned near the Pacific NW) will begin to move west to east across the northern portions of the CONUS. The deepest part of the low will dig just north of the area. Northwesterly flow sets up behind the trough making for nice weekend.
1035 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Upper ridge centered right up the midsection of the CONUS, which leaves our region on the ern periphery, under nw flow aloft. High pressure at the sfc remains firmly planted just to our e, and so our benign weather continues. The influence of the upper ridge, abundant sunshine, and relatively dry air/soils in place will allow for our temps to climb into the mid and upper 80s today. The central ridge axis of the block is located over the Great Plains and will allow warm and dry conditions to persist.
/issued 331 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ This morning's surface analysis shows 1012 hPa high pressure extending all the way from the Gulf of Mexico northward into portions of Canada. Above the surface, 500 hPa height analysis depicts a cutoff low over southern California helping to build the downstream ridge centered over the Continental Divide. Additionally, an elongated, neutral tilt trough was centered over the East Coast.
722 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Temperatures as of 7 am east of the Mississippi River were all above the freezing mark. The large area of high pressure at the surface remains centered over western Ontario this morning with its ridge axis extending well south into the middle Mississippi River Valley. The dry north flow around this high has dropped the dew points into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the entire area. Dew points expected to drop some more through the day as the high continues to push drier air into the area and with some decent mixing, drier air from aloft will also be brought down. Looks like these should be in the lower to middle 20s for much of the day along and northeast of Interstate 94.
Upper ridge positioned over the central US will allow for another quiet weather day with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. /Issued 319 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ High amplitude ridge continues to slowly translate across the Plains with several more days of warm and dry weather ahead. Upper low currently moving ashore southern California will make slow eastward progress and begin to influence the Southern Plains by mid week.
651 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Mid/upper level ridging remains in place over the forecast area, wedged between two rather potent troughs; one over the Appalachian region in the northeast CONUS and another trough just coming on shore over southern California.
Low pressure will lift northward across the region tonight into Monday.
603 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure will continue to dominate with widespread VFR conditions expected. Pattern is characterized by deep troughing over Hudson Bay, a sprawling upper ridge over the central plains and a cut off upper low over southern California. The pattern does deamplify slightly through the period but the area will continue to be dominated by upper ridging. Surface front will begin to lift to the northeast today in the form of a warm front but it will wash out with time.
A deep upper level long wave trough that moved into the west coast last night has now sheared. A long wave ridge is nosing into the area between the residual trough and the cutoff low.
Much cooler temperatures along with showers, thundershowers, and mountain snow snow to end the weekend before a warming and drying trend through midweek.
A cold front will bring another chance for active weather by the end of the week. Short wave which brought rain to the area last night has moved well offshore with low pressure over the New England states also moving northward. Complex blocking pattern will begin to break down around the middle of the week. Pattern consist of an upper ridge over the central part of the country and upper trough over both the eastern states and the Desert Southwest. The trough over the eastern conus will slowly lift northeast through mid-week allowing the upper ridge to slide eastward. Dry weather will persist tonight trough Monday night.
954 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 A large closed upper-level low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes region this morning, with troughing extending across much of the eastern part of the country, including Florida. Just to our west, a large ridge extends across the central U. with another closed low over California and the southwest. High pressure is in place across the region at the surface. The weather should be quiet today, with sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure over the area will keep winds and seas below headlines for the next several days.
1228 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Drying out and remaining cool under increasing high pressure influences through Monday. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Clouds and remaining rain showers/mountain snow showers will exit this morning as upper level low pulls eastward. With a dry airmass in place, insolation will help the max temps along today wile 850mb temps reside in the low single digits. The temperatures tonight are easily there in the low to mid 30s. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
High pressure ridge extends eastward from the central GOMEX into the Florida peninsula with its axis south of Lake Okeechobee. The high pressure ridge axis will remain in place as temps continue their fairly quick rise under fill sun toward afternoon highs in the M80s inland and L80s along the coast as an afternoon sea breeze drops back readings there. Will cap offshore seas at 3FT which is more in line with the lower WNA wave model guidance. High pressure from the southeast states into the central Gulf of Mexico will keep a light pressure gradient across east central FL allowing for inland movement of the east coast sea breeze into the interior in the evening and then light westerly flow overnight.
602 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 The large area of high pressure at the surface remains centered over western Ontario this morning with its ridge axis extending well south into the middle Mississippi River Valley. The dry north flow around this high has dropped the dew points into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the entire area. Dew points expected to drop some more through the day as the high continues to push drier air into the area and with some decent mixing, drier air from aloft will also be brought down. Looks like these should be in the lower to middle 20s for much of the day along and northeast of Interstate 94.
950 AM PDT Sun May 7 2017 Cooler with a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms today with gusty north winds.
Winds were NW to N 5 to 15 kt in the lower levels to 14kft, then NW 20-66 kt thereafter. /issued 255 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ At the surface, high pressure extends from the Ontario-Manitoba border to the central Gulf of Mexico, with an upper ridge over the Plains states.
Dry high pressure in place across the region. Temps today will be pretty similar to yesterday, maybe a degree to two cooler. So the lingering anticyclonic influence of this high will dominate. Low pressure will be shifting eastward through Nebraska towards Iowa and the warm frontal precip is proggd to stay to our southwest.
1130 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain precipitation chances early this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week.
At the same time, though, a Canadian cold front continues to sag south through AB and will drop south through the area today (central Montana) and tonight (SW MT). The above- mentioned cold front will be followed up by much drier air tonight/Monday.