Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low remains to our north and should not have much of an impact on our weather today. The upper low is expected to move south into southeast Texas tomorrow with South-Central Texas on the backside of the feature.
The weak cold front continues to be expected to sag on south into Kansas through the day today and lose its identity tonight into Saturday as low pressure deepens in south-central Canada ahead of the next wave.
302 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the northern Plains and will continue to move off to the east today. The trough will send a weak front south into portions of Kansas and Missouri but should overall remain north of the area with the better upper level support.
Low to mid level moisture will remain high across portions of northeast Mexico today so isolated convection is possible across the lower portions of the Rio Grande Valley. As the upper level low across east Texas moves across southeast Texas Saturday. lapse rates will steepen enough across the lower Texas coast to warrant another round of seabreeze convection across southeast portions of the CWA Sat afternoon.
We still expect the lower CIGs/VSBYs to be confined to areas of downpours and not as widespread in the absence of rainfall as with the past two nights. The High Risk of Rip Currents remain and a new Coastal waters Forecast and Zone forecast was just recently sent.
Unsure of how much of this will spill off the higher terrain and into the TN valley but the low levels remain fairly saturated so expect low cloud development to some degree later tonight. A round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, but chances are too low to mention a prevailing TS, so went with a PROB30 during the highest chances for storms. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 69 84 69 80 / 40 40 60 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 68 85 67 83 / 20 30 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 81 67 83 67 83 / 20 30 50 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 64 84 64 85 / 20 20 40 20 30.
410 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A seasonably cool day for today across southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle w/ the passage of the cold front early this morning. Daytime highs are expected to range from 65-75 degrees with little to no chance for precipitation given strong subsidence in the wake of the mid-level short wave & associated cold front. Unfortunately the cooler weather will be short lived as upper-level ridging will quickly build back into the region for Saturday w/ H7 temperatures rising back into the +14 to +16 deg C range.
/Issued 254 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ Upper low, currently located near the Red River over far south- central Oklahoma, will continue to drift southeast towards the upper southeast Texas coast over the next couple of days.
501 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low over the Bahamas, with the dry slot along its western fringes nearing the Florida Keys. A fractured low level ridge axis stretches west across the Bahamas and Florida. Radar loops from last evening revealed a weak cyclonic twist to the storm motion across the Florida Keys, and CIMSS low level vorticity analyses place a weak trough north of Havana, which explains the twist we saw on radar. The Lower Keys just missed a couple hours of thundery storms. Low level ridging will build back across Florida on Saturday as 96L pulls further away from the Carolinas.
411 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an area of high pressure over the southern third of the CONUS. Low pressure was located over northwestern Manitoba with a trough extending southwest into central Montana. West of the trough, a ridge of high pressure extended from Washington state north ito northern British Columbia. East of the trough, ridging was present across Quebec. A surface cold front had passed through the area as of 2 AM CDT and was located from Tekamah to McCook. The expected cloud cover will lead to much cooler highs today, particularly over the southern half of the forecast area. The strong southerly winds will also usher in much warmer air into the region Saturday.
409 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper level low will continue to move toward the forecast area setting up a wet pattern for the next several days across the Mid South.
(Previous Discussion) Boating conditions will remain favorable outside of convection with the Atlantic high pressure system building westward into east-central Florida.
529 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 08z surface analysis had high over MT pushing cold front well south of the CWA, currently located from northern CO into southern MN.
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an area of high pressure over the southern third of the CONUS. Low pressure was located over northwestern Manitoba with a trough extending southwest into central Montana. West of the trough, a ridge of high pressure extended from Washington state north ito northern British Columbia. East of the trough, ridging was present across Quebec. A surface cold front had passed through the area as of 2 AM CDT and was located from Tekamah to McCook. The expected cloud cover will lead to much cooler highs today, particularly over the southern half of the forecast area. The strong southerly winds will also usher in much warmer air into the region Saturday.
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region on Saturday. Behind the cold front, rain is still expected to become widespread with the trough. The recent trend that north-central Idaho will have the focus for the highest precipitation amounts remains.
Cold front extended from the MN Arrowhead region to nw IA and then to northern CO. Key messages: 1) Chance of showers and storms with a cold front today. 2) Cooler and less humid tonight with northwest winds. Details: Today: Main challenge is the coverage of any showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, as the weakening cold front pushes across the forecast area. Tonight: A slight chance of showers or storms in our se cwa early this evening but then high pressure builds into the area. Northwest winds will usher cooler and less humid airmass with lows ranging from around 50 along Hwy 20 to the lower 60s far se.
Add in the encroaching mid level trough from the west, and we will have enough to support increasing coverage of showers with some embedded thunderstorms through this evening. Mostly cloudy skies will remain in place throughout the day, limiting temps this afternoon to the low 80s.
Slightly cooler on Saturday behind the front, but highs will remain above seasonal normals (low to mid 80s).
The expansive upper low near and just east of the Bahamas is beginning to stretch northward, although its attended dry slot along the western flank has drifted slightly westward.
Regarding temperatures, less sky cover today and tomorrow will allow daytime highs to reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will reach the lower 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
/issued 409 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ An upper level low will continue to move toward the forecast area setting up a wet pattern for the next several days across the Mid South.
Upper level analysis places low over northern Manitoba, with ridge over the northern Rockies. Over the west is also where they driest air remains, thus the lowest humidity. A toasty day is on tap for Saturday as upper ridge passes over.
Potent cold front producing a fair wide swath of damaging winds continues to shift east through the WFO MPX coverage area early this morning. Despite clearing skies for late morning through the rest of the day, modified western Canadian air moving into the area behind the front will hold temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70, which is in stark contrast to the low 80s to low 90s experienced yesterday. A very comfortable Saturday is expected as high pressure slides across the Upper Midwest and settles over the Great Lakes. Winds will become more southerly later in the day but not really be able to tap into much warmer air over the central-southern Plains. Plenty of sunshine and waning cold air advection will allow highs to reach the low-mid 70s area-wide.
A cold front is expected to move through the region late this afternoon and evening which may lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. /issued 356 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ An upper level low is moving across Manitoba this morning which is ushering a cold front south across the Central Plains. Warm air near 350 mb will keep convective instability on the low side (only around 500 J/Kg) hence no severe weather is expected. /WCI Upper level low across north Texas should reside along the upper Texas coast by Saturday morning in an otherwise large area of high pressure across the central CONUS. A respectable trough is progged, at this time, to come ashore the BC maritimes.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 70 80 69 78 / 40 40 60 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 68 85 67 81 / 20 30 50 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 67 83 67 81 / 20 30 40 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 65 84 64 85 / 20 20 20 20 20.
515 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A seasonably cool day for today across southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle w/ the passage of the cold front early this morning. Daytime highs are expected to range from 65-75 degrees with little to no chance for precipitation given strong subsidence in the wake of the mid-level short wave & associated cold front. Unfortunately the cooler weather will be short lived as upper-level ridging will quickly build back into the region for Saturday w/ H7 temperatures rising back into the +14 to +16 deg C range.
430 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Potent cold front producing a fair wide swath of damaging winds continues to shift east through the WFO MPX coverage area early this morning. Despite clearing skies for late morning through the rest of the day, modified western Canadian air moving into the area behind the front will hold temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70, which is in stark contrast to the low 80s to low 90s experienced yesterday. A very comfortable Saturday is expected as high pressure slides across the Upper Midwest and settles over the Great Lakes. Winds will become more southerly later in the day but not really be able to tap into much warmer air over the central-southern Plains. Plenty of sunshine and waning cold air advection will allow highs to reach the low-mid 70s area-wide.
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper trof moving along the north central conus/Canadian border this morning will move to Ontario and the northern Great Lakes by early evening. The associated surface cold front will sag southward across central Kansas this afternoon with temperatures falling from midday highs in the 80s into the 70s. Much warmer air will reside further south across southern Kansas with highs near 90F. Upper ridging will develop over the area once again on Saturday with highs close to 90F across most of the area.
While this feature moves southward, the upper level troughing will gradually move eastward as a upper level ridge attempts to build into the area from the west. Due to the low confidence at this time, did not include fog into the grids at this time. With limited cloud cover expected today, temperatures are expected to warm up with highs ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to near 102 degrees across the Brush Country. With a slight increase in cloud cover expected tomorrow, highs tomorrow afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than today. Low temperatures are expected to remain comfortable with lows ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
With that warming aloft; potential convection today should be rather limited, confined to the southeastern ridge line this afternoon and then across northern portions of the forecast area (I-80 corridor) late this afternoon and evening. A surface front will be shoved north of the region this afternoon as an impressive upper level ridge builds in.
422 AM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A weak upper low moving through the region today through Saturday will allow for temperatures to continue their downward trend to seasonal readings.
Behind this front we can expect a much cooler day today, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the area. Even so, stayed on the slightly warmer side of guidance, since with the last few frontal passages we have warmed up slightly more than expected. Therefore confidence in today's temperatures isn't the highest. Aloft, we will remain in fairly zonal flow today as ridging begins to build to the west. As this ridge axis passes over us on Saturday we can expect to see temperatures rebound back up into the 80s.
We begin to transition into a wetter pattern today as an upper trough over Texas ejects eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy and humid day with high temperatures peaking just below seasonable norms in the lower 80s.
945 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Warm and humid conditions will return for today and Saturday ahead of a weak cold front.
Lee-side trough over central Montana will shift east by Saturday and allow winds to swing a bit more to the SW. A cold front will be approaching the area allowing for subsidence and thus a warming that will boost temps into 90s most places.
The broad upper ridge centered west of our area will build a bit during the short term, and the tropical remnants just inland west of the Mississippi River will continue to meander slowly.
Another warm day is expected across the area this afternoon, with highs once again topping out in the low to mid 90s for most locations. Isolated afternoon convection will also be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas closer to an upper low currently situated just south of the Red River and where deeper moisture resides.
216 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Latest analysis shows a low amplitude upper ridge building over the region. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the southeast of the forecast area and a strengthening lee side trough over Montana is producing gusty southerly winds across northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. With high temperatures 10-20F warmer than average on Saturday, gusty west to southwest winds are expected due to very deep boundary layer mixing, especially over northeastern Wyoming on Saturday afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) As an upper-level trough pushes southeast this evening, an upper ridge will attempt to build in from the west. But not before a weak cold front drops into northwest Texas this evening. Highs tomorrow will be back to the low to mid 90s.
The ridge axis will pass off to the east on Saturday with winds gradually becoming southerly.
1143 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A seasonably cool day for today across southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle w/ the passage of the cold front early this morning. Daytime highs are expected to range from 65-75 degrees with little to no chance for precipitation given strong subsidence in the wake of the mid-level short wave & associated cold front. Unfortunately the cooler weather will be short lived as upper-level ridging will quickly build back into the region for Saturday w/ H7 temperatures rising back into the +14 to +16 deg C range.
350 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A weak boundary will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure and warm, dry weather through the weekend.
A cumulus field existed near the Lower Keys. , rich moisture and insolation versus the gentle southerly flow neither promoting rainfall over the islands themselves nor strong enough to push an evening outflow boundary or set up a lee trough north of Cuba). This weekend, the persistent upper low to our east elongates but doesn't really depart our region, with low-to-mid level ridging extending into the Gulf of Mexico, then possibly fracturing before gaining latitude.
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Potent cold front producing a fair wide swath of damaging winds continues to shift east through the WFO MPX coverage area early this morning. Despite clearing skies for late morning through the rest of the day, modified western Canadian air moving into the area behind the front will hold temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70, which is in stark contrast to the low 80s to low 90s experienced yesterday. A very comfortable Saturday is expected as high pressure slides across the Upper Midwest and settles over the Great Lakes. Winds will become more southerly later in the day but not really be able to tap into much warmer air over the central-southern Plains. Plenty of sunshine and waning cold air advection will allow highs to reach the low-mid 70s area-wide.
In other news, the High Risk of Rip Currents remains through the tonight, becoming moderate on Saturday. For temps low to mid 80s for highs are expected, with lows tonight ranging from the low 70s inland to mid 70s down to the coast.
An upper level trough is currently moving east across the northern Plains and will continue to move off to the east today. The trough will send a weak front south into portions of Kansas and Missouri but should overall remain north of the area with the better upper level support.
249 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually push southward early this afternoon as drier air slowly advects in behind the cold front that passed through the area last night into this morning. Southerly winds and clear skies return quickly on Saturday as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
151 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A cold front with a pronounced north-south orientation continues to move slowly southward and as of 1 PM was generally along a Hobbs to Tulia line. On Saturday, low level flow backs from north/northeast to east/southeast during the day while upper ridge remains overhead. The aforementioned cold front is expected to remain stalled over the CWA Saturday evening.
An upper low will drift over the area tomorrow with a series of weak short waves rotating around the low bringing periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Regarding temperatures, less sky cover today and tomorrow will allow daytime highs to reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will reach the lower 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
A cold front will move south to near a Brownfield to Silverton line before stalling this afternoon. /issued 356 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ An upper level low is moving across Manitoba this morning which is ushering a cold front south across the Central Plains. Warm air near 350 mb will keep convective instability on the low side (only around 500 J/Kg) hence no severe weather is expected. /WCI Upper level low across north Texas should reside along the upper Texas coast by Saturday morning in an otherwise large area of high pressure across the central CONUS. A respectable trough is progged, at this time, to come ashore the BC maritimes.
In its wake, a surface cold front is expected to move into parts of NW OK later this evening.
100 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Strong thunderstorms will continue for another couple of hours over northern Wisconsin as a cold front moves east.
240 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Upper level low positioned over eastern TX this afternoon.
Afternoon highs should be in the low to middle 80s. /issued 649 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ An upper level low will continue to move toward the forecast area setting up a wet pattern for the next several days across the Mid South.
240 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Overall, the upper level ridge will slowly build back across the area tonight into Saturday. There is a weak upper level disturbance under the ridge that will reside across Arkansas and Louisiana. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly cloudy through the period with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s and highs Saturday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
The mid/upper level trough to our west is now approaching the ArkLaTex region and helping to propagate some vort maxes east of the MS River. As the mid/upper low to our west encroaches further upon the region it will interact moreso with the deep tropical air mass in place.
221 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Today: A cold front has been slowly drifting into our area today and brought shower activity to far northwest Missouri this morning. The Weekend: Unfortunately Friday's cold front won't have much of an impact on temperatures heading into the weekend. On Saturday, a ridge over the four corners region will start to push into our area.
154 PM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A weak upper low moving through the region today through Saturday will allow for temperatures to continue their downward trend to seasonal readings.
1102 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
Cold front will continue to slowly sag south but is also expected to lose its baroclinicity as it pushes south. Upper ridging will be over the Northern/Central Plains for Sat which will promote dry conditions and above normal temperatures across the forecast area. This will bring increased return flow and even warmer temps for Sun with most locations around the 90 degree mark. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 80s. This will allow a strong cold front to surge through the area Mon afternoon through Mon evening, finally providing our first taste of fall like temperatures for Tue and Wed.
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an area of high pressure over the southern third of the CONUS. Low pressure was located over northwestern Manitoba with a trough extending southwest into central Montana. West of the trough, a ridge of high pressure extended from Washington state north ito northern British Columbia. East of the trough, ridging was present across Quebec. A surface cold front had passed through the area as of 2 AM CDT and was located from Tekamah to McCook. The expected cloud cover will lead to much cooler highs today, particularly over the southern half of the forecast area. The strong southerly winds will also usher in much warmer air into the region Saturday.
Cold front that moved through the area last night and this morning has begun to shift east early this afternoon. Big fire being observed south of Crawford nebraska this afternoon in the Pine Ridge.
250 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mid/upper level low pressure over eastern TX will move little or drift ever so slowly northward during the short term period.
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
Gusty winds will decrease for most areas around sunset, but some winds will continue through the night, particularly in the higher terrain. A big change in the weather pattern is still anticipated beginning tomorrow as a trough of low pressure digs along the west coast. A strong cold front will move through the region during the day Saturday, bringing strong gusty wind followed by precipitation.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 80 69 78 69 / 30 70 40 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 85 67 81 69 / 20 60 30 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 67 83 67 81 68 / 20 50 20 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 64 85 66 / 20 40 20 20 20.
1034 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 We have updated the forecast to remove the mention of morning fog along the Highway 77 corridor and coastal plains. An upper low remains to our north and should not have much of an impact on our weather today. The upper low is expected to move south into southeast Texas tomorrow with South-Central Texas on the backside of the feature.
Winds were northerly, rain was done for the day and a cooler air mass was filtering in. Get out and enjoy it! For the Weekend: Weak upper level ridging will build north this weekend, resulting in a return to the 80s. Sunshine should also be quite prevalent thanks to the ridge aloft.