Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lingering moisture in the lowest few thousand feet will result in a few upslope cumulus fields persisting through the evening. Temperatures have been adjusted downward overnight, following the lowest 10th percentile of guidance. Still, any extremely tender vegetation is worth protecting in the higher mountain valleys of Colorado tonight. Afternoon highs will rebound nicely from today, running around 10 degrees higher as warmer air moves in aloft and mixing heights increase.
/18Z TAFS/ A cold front moved through the area this morning resulting in gusty west-northwesterly winds of 15-25 knots. /issued 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will move through the area this morning, resulting in gusty northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots. /issued 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will help produce afternoon highs today not as hot as yesterday's highs. At 850mb, winds also from the northwest will bring much cooler temperatures over West Central Texas; this too will help produce afternoon highs cooler than yesterday.
Centroid of Cristobal near KEOK at 19 UTC with embedded trough wrapping northeast out of southern portion of cyclone.
An area of showers is forming along a weak warm front as it crosses e-central Oregon and SW Idaho this morning. Light rain or virga accompanying a warm front through morning.
Skies are partly cloudy northeast with very warm temperatures in the lower 90s and mostly cloudy south and west with temperatures in the mid 80s. Lows will be mild in the lower 70s overnight. Wednesday the remnant low which was Cristobal shifts north toward southern Ontario, a compact low/and vorticiy maximum within larger-scale upper troughing is forecast to become increasingly negatively tilted as it moves northeast across the Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes region. Farther south in the Tennessee Valley, storms are forecast to develop during the afternoon along an approaching cold front, as the airmass destabilizes from heating. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler in the mid to upper 80s areawide.
Expect another cold morning on Wednesday, with pockets of freezing temperatures over the higher terrain.
A wave of moisture ahead of a building ridge of high pressure will bring a period of showers across much of western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon through tonight. High pressure begins to build over the region Wednesday, leading to a gradual warming trend.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come overnight tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Drier air will filter into the area with the high pressure. The 12Z ECMWF brings a back door cold front into the Mid-South which will stall out as an upper low retrogrades westward over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the GFS begins to build an upper ridge over the area. KRM /18z TAFs/ South to southwest winds will remain strong through tonight, eventually veering more westerly on Wednesday morning as a cold front moves across the Mid-South.
Mid/upper level ridging with hold steady across the southern CONUS through mid week as a deepening trough digs across the Midwest to the MS/OH Valleys. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will extend across the FL peninsula, backing winds onshore by early Wednesday.
A dry line was observed extending from the low to the southeast along a line from Salina to just south of Emporia extending south from there. Lows fall into the 50s tonight behind the surface cold front. 50-60kt 925mb winds and 850mb winds approaching 70kt will move across the CWA, allowing for sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph in the western half of the CWA where the High Wind Warning is in place tonight through early Wednesday morning. Winds begin to relax during the afternoon Wednesday with highs much cooler than they have been for the past week, only reaching into the upper 70s. For the rest of the week and into the weekend, ridging builds into the Plains keeping conditions dry with temperatures climbing back to near 90 degrees by the weekend.
205 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Winds are finally subsiding in wake of a very dry Pacific cold front and by 10 PM this evening speeds will fall below 10 mph in all areas. Thereafter the mid-level ridge will bogart its way nwd and expand to virtually dominate the pattern thru the next 10 days. Overnight RH recovery will be poor to fair, and RHs will remain below 15% on Wednesday, however, cooler temperatures and calmer 20FT winds will reduce fire weather concerns.
(This evening through Wednesday) Strong winds will continue through the afternoon and linger into the evening, with the highest winds occuring over northwest Oklahoma. For this possibility, the high wind warning for northern Oklahoma will remain in effect through 1am. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tomorrow behind the cold front, along with cooler temperatures generally in the 80s.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. Dewpoint values in the lower to middle 70s combined with a broad upper- level trough will bring sufficient instability to support strong thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with temperatures on Wednesday forecast to climb only into the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s across the I-30 corridor and lower 60s elsewhere.
Deformation area associated with remnants of Cristobal and mid-level northern stream trough will act to focus heavier rainfall across portions of northeast IA/southeast MN into western WI. For Wednesday, we will be watching a fairly strong PV-anomaly/closed low pushing northeast into the area. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy, cooler and breezy day expected.
A warming trend along with dry weather will follow for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
With dense cloud cover redeveloping late tonight into early Wednesday morning, temperatures will stay quite mild and muggy for one more night, with lows in the low to mid 70s. The aforementioned cold front will move into the region late Wednesday morning, serving as a focus for showers and thunderstorms as it passes across the Tennessee Valley.
The region will then be between the exiting system to the east and high pressure to the west Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s west to the lower 50s east, with high temperatures on Wednesday in the lower to mid 70s.
The cold front is along the eastern border of the forecast area and this will be the focus for storms that may have a tornado with them. This low is expected to move to the east and there will be thunderstorms along the front. Winds are still fairly strong behind the cold front and the strongest winds are expected to be late this afternoon into the evening hours. The high wind warning will continue through tonight. Lows will be in the lower 50s. The upper low will move into Missouri by morning and expect that the precipitation gradually end from west to east through the night.
925 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2020 High pressure aloft with strong offshore flow will bring us warm conditions and gusty winds for much of the region. Winds will die down for tomorrow as weak onshore flow starts to make its presence known with cooler weather at the coast, though remaining quite warm inland.
A ridge of high pressure will bring clear skies and more seasonal temperatures by Wednesday with above average temperatures to finish off the work week.
Water vapor shows an upper level disturbance over the Central Plains, about ready to absorb Tropical Depression Cristobal, with an upper level trough extending down from it into central Texas. A surface "cold" front/dryline feature associated with the upper level trough was noted from central Oklahoma down into central Texas. The upper level trough and associated surface front will push eastward tonight entering the northwest portion of the forecast area shortly before midnight, then through the forecast area shortly after daybreak. Showers and a few storms should develop right along and behind the front, as frontal lift and ascent from the approaching trough lifts the abundant low level Gulf moisture. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build out of northern Mexico and across the region through the week into the weekend.
At the surface, low pressure was over central KS with a southward extending dryline now surging into eastern OK. While some blowing dust and gusty winds will accompany the dryline this afternoon, the latest data from the HRRR suggests that the strongest potential wind gusts will be tonight behind the cold front and as the low pressure passes by to our north. The dryline and cold front should slide thru our area dry for the most part, as the latest CAM data continues to suggest storms won't fire until the focusing boundary is east of the forecast area. The wrap-around showers on the back side of the upper low should stay just to the north of the KS/MO border as well. Once this system departs, ridging will build aloft over the Plains and will maintain quiet weather.
High pressure builds today through Wednesday with a warming trend inland.
153 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing through the central CONUS, with low pressure over western KS. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS, a warming trend and dry weather are expected through the end of the week.
There will be a slight chance of showers tonight as a cold front moves through the state.
A potent upper level low is still forecast to cross the central Plains tonight, before lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Great Lakes by Wednesday night. An associated cold front is forecast to push across our forecast area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Highs Wednesday range in the mid to upper 80s, though heat indices top out in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees given the high humidity.
202 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The early afternoon satellite imagery showed the remnants of TS Cristobal over the middle MS Valley, with a trailing upper low over central KS. Confidence of meeting high wind criteria across the southern NE Panhandle is waning as cloud cover is slow to exit, and the High Wind Warning may be cancelled prior to 3 PM. Winds will gradually subside this evening as the low pressure system over KS moves further east. Drier air aloft in advance of a upper level ridge to the west will spread into the CWA tonight and Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with 60s and 70s forecast.
Western sections are in the lower 80s with low level and high level moisture increasing over the western half. Clouds may increase by afternoon northeast but still expect highs to reach the lower 90s northeast and upper 80s west and southwest.
Temperatures will remain warm tonight, but be much cooler Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Scattered to broken mid clouds will remain common this afternoon across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas ahead of a strong cold front pushing into the region. Secondly is the strong cold front. Ahead of the cold front. while the strong cold front pushes into/through the region. Behind the cold front.
Northwest flow behind the departing low pressure system will keep the highs in the 70s across the area.
320 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The high wind warning can be cancelled west of Lincoln county. Pacific high pressure across the Cntl Rockies will build east overnight and skies should clear from west to east by Wednesday morning. The high pressure will present clear skies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday and will move to central GA overnight.
In the long range, high pressure will be the main feature for the region.
226 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Upper trough over eastern Montana slowly shifting to the Dakotas this evening.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon/evening in western North Dakota as cold air aloft accompanies the mid-level trough. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow will remain on the relatively cooler side with lows in the 40s tonight and highs in the low 70s on Wednesday.
Mid-level high pressure, which is dominating the pattern, will weaken somewhat as a deep trough pushes through the Central United States. Models are indicating the possibility of a few strong storms early Wednesday morning ahead of an associated cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the lower 90s with much lower dew points behind the front.
Secondly is the strong cold front. Ahead of the cold front. while the strong cold front pushes into/through the region. Behind the cold front.
Will leave the High Wind Warning in effect only for the eastern border counties until 6 PM. With upper ridging over the area tonight into Wed, warmer air will move over the area and winds will be lighter on Wed.
637 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The high wind warning can be cancelled west of Lincoln county. Pacific high pressure across the Cntl Rockies will build east overnight and skies should clear from west to east by Wednesday morning. The high pressure will present clear skies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Over the next 24 hours, a 500 mb ridge spanning the southern Gulf will re-develop over the northern Gulf, with modest height falls expected over the Keys.
934 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 A Pacific cold front/dryline had moved into western AR at midevening. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come overnight tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Drier air will filter into the area with the high pressure. The 12Z ECMWF brings a back door cold front into the Mid-South which will stall out as an upper low retrogrades westward over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the GFS begins to build an upper ridge over the area. KRM 00 TAF Early Wednesday morning a cold front will traverse the area.
Wednesday, will be a bit warmer with a few showers along The Divide and parts of central Montana. The trough that has been impacting our area, moves eastward out of the region, and ridging builds into the area from the west.
404 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Deep upper level trough will dig through the upper midwest on Wednesday. This will bring a cold front through the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning ending by Wednesday afternoon. Much drier weather will filter into the area Wednesday evening behind the cold front. Upper level trough will set up over the eastern conus meanwhile an upper level ridge will take hold over the Rockies and Plain states trough the upcoming weekend.
511 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The early afternoon satellite imagery showed the remnants of TS Cristobal over the middle MS Valley, with a trailing upper low over central KS. Confidence of meeting high wind criteria across the southern NE Panhandle is waning as cloud cover is slow to exit, and the High Wind Warning may be cancelled prior to 3 PM. Winds will gradually subside this evening as the low pressure system over KS moves further east. Drier air aloft in advance of a upper level ridge to the west will spread into the CWA tonight and Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with 60s and 70s forecast.
All eyes now on an incoming cold front, expected to be near the TN river by mid-morning Wed. A cold front however will approach from the west early Wed, then cross the mid-state during the late morning/afternoon.
556 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Strong winds will continue through the afternoon and linger into the evening, with the highest winds occuring over northwest Oklahoma. For this possibility, the high wind warning for northern Oklahoma will remain in effect through 1am. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tomorrow behind the cold front, along with cooler temperatures generally in the 80s.
Since the threat of damaging winds appears to be over, the High wind Warning will be cancelled with the issuance of the afternoon forecast package. High pressure building over the state will be subsident and the airmass will be drier, so no precipitation is expected. Temperatures should be some 10 degrees warmer than today, based on the forecast rise in temperatures aloft.
656 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 An anomalously strong low pressure system continues to move east across Kansas today, which has started to bring strong and damaging winds to portions of the region. The upper low is spinning over western KS, and making a slow trek east. Temps behind the cold front are cooling quite fast, with temps now in the 40s across portions of western KS. Winds behind the strong surface cold front accompanying the system have reached 60-70 mph so far across portions of western Kansas. Sustained winds of 30-45 mph and gusts from 45-60 mph continue to warrant the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory. Tomorrow a good breeze will continue across the area through early afternoon and also feel much cooler with highs only reaching the mid 70s to 80 degrees.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come overnight tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Drier air will filter into the area with the high pressure. The 12Z ECMWF brings a back door cold front into the Mid-South which will stall out as an upper low retrogrades westward over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the GFS begins to build an upper ridge over the area. KRM 00 TAF Early Wednesday morning a cold front will traverse the area.
Centroid of Cristobal near KEOK at 19 UTC with embedded trough wrapping northeast out of southern portion of cyclone. The activity should stay more isolated overnight; for now, have kept storms out until Wednesday when the trof moves into the area.
Precip activity will linger through the early morning hours ahead of brief ridging aloft on Wednesday. Incoming moisture advected from a closed low along the Canadian coast will stir up showers and thunderstorms over the Blue Mountains Wednesday afternoon near Baker City. Temperatures on Wednesday will transition from below normal to above, with most valley locations seeing highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Expecting MVFR ceilings to develop this evening as moisture pools in advance of a weak cold front over Southcentral Texas. The lower ceilings persist into Wednesday morning and as the front pushes south in the region overnight isolated to scattered convection may develop. Mid-level high pressure, which is dominating the pattern, will weaken somewhat as a deep trough pushes through the Central United States. Models are indicating the possibility of a few strong storms early Wednesday morning ahead of an associated cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the lower 90s with much lower dew points behind the front.
1024 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 A weak trough will linger over the area through Wednesday.
This is effectively blocking the progression of our northern stream trough, which has resulted in very little movement of the focus for rain from our western CWA throughout today. As remnants of Cristobal continue to lift northeast into the Great Lakes and weaken tonight, western trough should be able to slowly push across our forecast area. Deep warm layer with freezing levels over 13kft, so also may be difficult to get large hail. By tomorrow, could still see some light showers lingering in our far east in the morning, but otherwise just looks like a breezy but cooler day with highs largely in the lower 70s. Our slow-moving upper trough swings into the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening, leaving us in northwest flow through the end of the work week.
523 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing through the central CONUS, with low pressure over western KS. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS, a warming trend and dry weather are expected through the end of the week.
Warmer high temperatures, though still below normal, can be expected today along with lingering breeziness.
A cold front is expected to move through the state this evening and tonight, brining east northeasterly winds and chances for rain, primarily across the central and eastern portions of the state.
614 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Have cancelled a portion of the High Wind Warning since wind speeds have already decreased across the western sections of the forecast area. The eastern sections of the High Wind Warning are still in effect for another couple of hours.
Have cancelled a portion of the High Wind Warning since wind speeds have already decreased across the western sections of the forecast area. The eastern sections of the High Wind Warning are still in effect for another couple of hours.
There is a chance for thunderstorms associated with a cold front late this evening across VCT, COT and LRD, and later overnight for ALI and CRP. Temperatures will remain warm tonight, but be much cooler Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
254 PM MST Tue Jun 9 2020 Warmer high temperatures, though still below normal, can be expected today along with lingering breeziness.
Expect a cold front to move through overnight and early Wednesday. In the long range, high pressure will be the main feature for the region.
Northwesterly flow becomes more established over the area Wednesday, overall we'll be trending drier and a little warmer, but a few cumulus clouds will pop up with daytime heating and an isolated sprinkle or shower can't be entirely ruled out.
A cold front will bring scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
/issued 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ Winds are finally subsiding in wake of a very dry Pacific cold front and by 10 PM this evening speeds will fall below 10 mph in all areas. Thereafter the mid-level ridge will bogart its way nwd and expand to virtually dominate the pattern thru the next 10 days. Overnight RH recovery will be poor to fair, and RHs will remain below 15% on Wednesday, however, cooler temperatures and calmer 20FT winds will reduce fire weather concerns.
STP Upper trough over eastern Montana slowly shifting to the Dakotas this evening.
The upper low over southeastern KS this morning will move quickly to the Great Lakes this afternoon.
Another upper level low was over eastern Kansas with yet another system near Lake Winnipeg. This will bring the mean long wave trough connecting the two systems across the area during the day. Short wave troughs associated with these two systems will produce a couple rounds of weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with the southern system will track east/northeast, passing to the south of the area during the afternoon. The northern system still looks like it will be over western Ontario Thursday as another short wave trough swings around the back side of the upper level low and across the region. Once this system moves past the region, a large upper level ridge will form over the Rockies and shift slowly east over the Midwest.
A cold front, currently crossing over the MS River into MS as of 2z this morning will continue to push eastward during the day. Based on the timing of the cold front, expect thunderstorms to develop primarily east of I-65. Cooler and drier air moves into the area post frontal system.
High pressure builds today through Wednesday with a warming trend inland. The next trough approaches by Thursday with the ridge breaking down as onshore winds increase.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week and into the weekend as a cold front moves into the area Thursday and stalls along the I-95 corridor. An upper ridge axis moving off the coast overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s. A moist onshore flow will persist on Wednesday ahead of a cold front with precipitable water values around 2.
An unusually strong cold front pushed through last night and below normal temperatures will continue in its wake through Wednesday. High pressure will strengthen over the region beginning Thursday and temperatures will rise back above normal most areas.