Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An MCS has quickly pushed through the state early this morning ahead of a surface cold front, and CAMs have generally been slow with the progression of these storms as the main line is already in southeastern KS and northern OK as of 08Z this morning. This will bring a returning chance for developing showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances just southwest of the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday morning. The resulting cloud cover Friday and Saturday will likely keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1114 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as a weak cold front crosses and high pressure builds in behind it.
202 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure will slide off the coast this evening. A weak cold front drops south through the local area Saturday.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large area of Canadian originated high pressure steadily building into the area this afternoon as northwest flow aloft continues. Given fast flow aloft, large scale features expected to remain progressive, allowing center of high pressure to settle directly overhead tonight. Expect widespread readings in the lower and middle 40s by sunrise Saturday, with our typical colder locations in the Au Sable River Valley up into interior northeast lower likely dropping into the upper 30s (perhaps even a few degrees colder).
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind a dry cold front.
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A cold front across southeast Illinois, south of I-70, will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated storms through tonight. Additional chances for showers and isolated storms will come Saturday and Saturday night, with the overnight period having the higher chances of rain. A swirl of energy moving across southern Illinois along the cold front will be the focus for periodic showers across areas south of I-72 tonight. If that occurs, lows near Galesburg could dip into the mid 50s, while areas south of I-70 see low temps in the low to mid 60s.
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure aloft will bring hot weather to inland areas, especially the deserts, through Saturday.
1121 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Drier and warmer conditions can be expected into the Holiday weekend.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A mid to upper level ridge extending over the region from southern California/Arizona into Northwest Mexico will continue to drift west.
257 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners.
1116 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the area, but the severe weather concerns have subsided for the night as the low level environment stabilizes within the large expanse of moderate to heavy rain. As the low level jet weakens through the morning expect the rain to gradually subside the northwest to the southeast.
Northwest Montana has the highest threat for thunderstorms into this evening, which will likely impact Glacier National Park and Flathead Lake with brief heavy rain and erratic wind gusts.
A weakening cold frontal boundary extending across central IL/IN/OH will stall over central KY becoming more of a quasi-stationary boundary. Saturday morning min temps will range from the low to mid 60s with urban areas in the upper 60s.
1203 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A dying, moisture-starved cold front will sag southeast across Pennsylvania today, accompanied by the chance of a brief light shower in a few locations. High pressure building southeast from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather tonight and Saturday.
Isolated showers along the Coastal Plains this afternoon, with hot and dry conditions for the rest of the area as we stay under the influence of an upper ridge.
1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure will remain across the area into the weekend. A tad warmer today but still another bonus wx day for late Aug. Center of sfc hi pres will slowly slide off the coast late today w/ a weak lee trough developing just E of the mountains. a weak cold front (w/ minimal moisture) will slide S across the FA.
Lower elevation easterly winds, and persistent cloud cover have kept temps significantly cooler across much of the region today. High pressure ridging will begin to build over the state late tonight.
Highs are expected from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge builds in across the Four Corners/Southern Plains, leading relatively quiet conditions and near to above normal temperatures across the region through Labor day.
131 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours as high pressure remains across the region.
Dew points below 70 degrees across about northeast half of the area making for a relatively comfortable afternoon for late August, even though temperatures are mainly in the lower 90s.
It will remain seasonably cool overnight but a bit warmer than last night as southeasterly winds in the boundary layer lead to some warm air advection and plenty of cloud cover thanks to increasing moisture given the modest return flow.
1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with a frontal boundary nearly stationary to the south and west of the region. Upper level analysis shows a large trough over the eastern US, with near zonal flow from the Pacific NW into the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 50s, with some 40s across the higher Black Hills. Unsettled and slightly cooler weather is expected for today as the disturbance moves through the area. Weak ridging will build over the Rockies during the holiday weekend, bringing a warming trend for Saturday through Labor Day.
Main exception come with a pesky trof that has developed over the MS River Valley region, between two mid/upper level high pressure systems off to the east and west of the trof. This feature could bring a few thunderstorms to areas of southeast MO and southern Illinois north of Crowley's Ridge early this evening, but thinking the overall severe risk is low to marginal at this time due weak shear and marginal SBCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/KG. The trof will work slowly eastward on Saturday, allowing weak ridging to take place.
This moisture is at the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Otherwise, a slightly warmer night versus the past few nights is on tap with lows mainly in the low to mid 60s.
637 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A cold front across southeast Illinois, south of I-70, will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated storms through tonight. Additional chances for showers and isolated storms will come Saturday and Saturday night, with the overnight period having the higher chances of rain. A swirl of energy moving across southern Illinois along the cold front will be the focus for periodic showers across areas south of I-72 tonight. If that occurs, lows near Galesburg could dip into the mid 50s, while areas south of I-70 see low temps in the low to mid 60s.
703 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions through tonight.
406 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Tonight through Saturday: With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, conditions will be quiet over the next 24 hours due to the dry airmass in place. Dewpoint temperatures this afternoon range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south part of the CWA. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day and highs will rise into the low 90s again.
Little change in overall thinking over the next several days as high pressure remains situated over the region through Saturday.
228 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Temperatures will trend upward above through Labor Day as high pressure continues to dominate the region along with dry conditions.
The weak wave moving across Wyoming will be racing east tonight, with the H5 ridge centered on the Four Corners expanding northward.
1037 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather overnight and Saturday.
Overnight lows will actually be warmer than some of the temperatures this afternoon with lower and middle 70s in most locations. The only exception will be the northeast zones where outflow boundaries associated with morning convection in Oklahoma will bring high clouds and slightly cooler air. The outflows may also serve as a focus for scattered convection, mainly east of the I-35 corridor where large scale subsidence associated with an upper ridge to the west will be the weakest.
807 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Last round of thunderstorms working their way south and east and out of the High Plains this evening. Convection was quickly forming in the vicinity of the trough and front, and moving east to southeast. Short range models concur that a drier and warmer airmass will return Saturday as the flow aloft becomes zonal.
Further southwest, thunderstorms have formed off the higher terrain of MT/WY and were moving eastward towards the southwestern counties of North Dakota. It will remain seasonably cool overnight but a bit warmer than last night as southeasterly winds in the boundary layer lead to some warm air advection and plenty of cloud cover thanks to increasing moisture given the modest return flow.
748 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A dying, moisture-starved cold front will sag across Pennsylvania early tonight. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather tonight and Saturday.
Going forecast looks good, with lows falling into the low to mid 60s. Will add some patchy fog to western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma counties which were the last areas to lose the low clouds today.
606 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
Lower PWATs and lack of any forcing will mean little to no shower activity on Saturday, even in the highest terrain of the San Juans. With less cloud cover and drier weather than Friday, Saturday will end up a few degrees warmer.
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The mid tropospheric pattern in the short term has a prevailing ridge of high pressure over the southwest U. /Rockies/parts of the Plains with a trough in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast.
Forecast mostly on track as high pressure controls our weather. Warmer overnight temps should mean less fog compared to the past two nights. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 67 89 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 91 65 88 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 91 66 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 61 87 / 0 10 10 10.
High pressure slides off to the east later tonight allowing return flow into western Iowa.
720 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A dying, moisture-starved cold front will sag across Pennsylvania early tonight. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather tonight and Saturday.
On Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin to amplify.
955 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region late this evening. with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 40s along the shoreline areas to the upper 30s across the higher elevations of Northern Lower Michigan. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large area of Canadian originated high pressure steadily building into the area this afternoon as northwest flow aloft continues. Given fast flow aloft, large scale features expected to remain progressive, allowing center of high pressure to settle directly overhead tonight. Expect widespread readings in the lower and middle 40s by sunrise Saturday, with our typical colder locations in the Au Sable River Valley up into interior northeast lower likely dropping into the upper 30s (perhaps even a few degrees colder).
A weak upper ridge tonight followed by southwest flow aloft will keep the area dry through Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer, with highs around 10 degrees above normal.
419 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The mid tropospheric pattern in the short term has a prevailing ridge of high pressure over the southwest U. /Rockies/parts of the Plains with a trough in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast.
upper ridge has continued to ensure warm, dry conditions over the region. The usual large day/night temperature spreads are expected across the region with lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s in the Valley and 40s across the higher elevations. An amplified trough will pass to the north through the Pacific Northwest while a mainstay upper ridge remains over the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region.
Weak disturbances embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft ahead of a weak ridge cause showers to move through the area, with some thunderstorms passing through the southwest counties of The Treasure State, as well as along The Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will trend upward above through Labor Day as high pressure continues to dominate the region along with dry conditions.
/TW/ Tonight through Saturday: With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, conditions will be quiet over the next 24 hours due to the dry airmass in place. Dewpoint temperatures this afternoon range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south part of the CWA. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day and highs will rise into the low 90s again.
542 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A dying, moisture-starved cold front will sag across Pennsylvania this evening. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather tonight and Saturday.
656 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Currently a surface front is situated roughly along the Highway 54 corridor. a flat ridge was located across the southern CONUS while the main storm track was located from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes.
655 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind a dry cold front.
Towards the end of the weekend models are suggesting this low will split with half of it moving through the state of Washington and the other half moving south and relocating off the coast of California.
930 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 At the mid and upper levels, a trough axis extended from the mid Mississippi Valley to central Texas. Otherwise, broad high pressure over the Great Lakes extended its influence southward to the Tennessee Valley and Deep South, with no weather of consequence occurring nor expected. Low temperatures towards daybreak Saturday should range in the low/mid 60s, with light winds. High pressure will build into the region this weekend increasing temps back into the lower 90s. Won't have to worry about heat index values this weekend with the dry air in place! A trough will swing through the Great Lakes on Saturday and pull a front into the region but it will hang up to our north.
610 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners.
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather overnight and Saturday.
1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 For the 31/06z TAFs, convection is redeveloping along a cold front over Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas. Short-range model guidance continues to show good agreement regarding the development of another MCS along a cold front over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas after midnight tonight. Our region remains at the outlet of the upper ridge to our w and a trof over the Mid and Upper MS River Valley, and this has set up a sort of quasi-nw flow scenario that would be more common to us during early June.
Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s with rain moving out of the Ozarks and only some very light rainfall for portions of central Missouri expected as this occurs. With mostly sunny skies expected temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s for the most part.
At the mid and upper levels, a trough axis extended from the mid Mississippi Valley to central Texas. Otherwise, broad high pressure over the Great Lakes extended its influence southward to the Tennessee Valley and Deep South, with no weather of consequence occurring nor expected. Low temperatures towards daybreak Saturday should range in the low/mid 60s, with light winds. High pressure will build into the region this weekend increasing temps back into the lower 90s. Won't have to worry about heat index values this weekend with the dry air in place! A trough will swing through the Great Lakes on Saturday and pull a front into the region but it will hang up to our north. Warming trend to start the work week as afternoon highs climb into the lower 90s.
1104 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners.
With overnight lows will also be slightly warmer then previous nights.
Otherwise, high pressure over the 4- Corners will result in a warming trend into the Labor Day Holiday Weekend. upper ridge has continued to ensure warm, dry conditions over the region. The usual large day/night temperature spreads are expected across the region with lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s in the Valley and 40s across the higher elevations. An amplified trough will pass to the north through the Pacific Northwest while a mainstay upper ridge remains over the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region.
For Saturday night into Sunday morning, most models show dry weather in the forecast area as high pressure builds into the region. With the high pressure ridge nosing into the area, winds should be light. With the ample ground moisture and cooler temperatures overnight, it seems like a good setup for fog. We should also warmer temperatures with lower cloud coverage and winds turning to the south.
Closer home, a large high pressure system continues to shift east across the region. This high will maintain a rather dry low level profile across the region into the first half of the weekend.
1122 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Currently a surface front is situated roughly along the Highway 54 corridor. a flat ridge was located across the southern CONUS while the main storm track was located from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. the upper ridge out west begins to amplify which should push the surface front through the area during the day on Sunday. KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue to circulate southward on the western side of a upper level low.
This is occurring as the upper trough is gradually pulling out of the region while leaving a remnant vorticity max in its wake, almost appearing as a small-scale MCV slowly spinning across NE Texas with heavy rainfall occurring in our NW counties along and south of the Red River. Overnight temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s by Sunday morning. Rain chances will be trending downward areawide for Sunday as the upper level ridge out to our west becomes more influential across our region.
320 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Scattered showers and storms possible along a slow moving cold front through Labor Day with temperatures slightly above normal. A cold front with a mid level disturbance will slowly move through the area today and this evening.
337 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected today under building high pressure. Rain chances return Sunday with a trough of low pressure. Dry weather is expected today for most of the area under building high pressure. The exception is the WV and MD ridges, where enough instability is expected to result in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms as convective thresholds are met.
High clouds will lower and thicken Saturday as weak short wave trough moves in with a chance of showers Saturday night as moisture column deepens. Dry air in the lowest 5kft will have to be overcome and showers should remain fairly light.
444 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend as easterly flow begins increasing moisture across the area. Upper ridging offshore appears to be shifting east in response to upper trough over the Mississippi Valley early in the day. Continue chance pops mainly east and slightly cooler temperatures with east flow and expected clouds.
While this is happening, a broad area of low pressure will begin moving west from the Straits of Florida into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Highs this afternoon will remain toasty as they climb into the lower and middle 90s, while under mostly sunny skies.
The boundary should lift north as a warm front tonight through Sunday, and start to wash out.
330 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Cooler temperatures have settled over the area this morning, along with patchy low clouds resulting from light winds and a moist boundary layer.
An upper ridge builds into the region this afternoon and remain over the area through Sunday. There will be a quasi-stationary front along the Canadian Border on Sunday which will keep the northern zones cooler.
Will see little change in the overall weather pattern this TAF period as high pressure continues to be the dominate weather feature.
An inverted trough and it's associated deep layer moisture will continue to move westward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the local Tri-state region. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Very comfortable temps today with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s. Sunday should be dry and warmer with southerly flow returning to the area. This should help boost temps into the lower 80s.
1133 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair weather overnight and Saturday.
402 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will lead to quiet weather today.
This may be the last nocturnal rain event for a while as the upper ridge to the west of Oklahoma is expected to build eastward and the influence of the weak westerlies remain to the north of Oklahoma into mid-week.
251 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 The pattern aloft features weak low pressure over Cuba and high pressure over the Atlantic extending southwestward. The ridge aloft mentioned above will push Dorian westward toward the Florida peninsula before steering currents weaken and Dorian slows.
154 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along slow moving cold front into the Labor Day weekend with temperatures slightly above normal. A cold front with a mid level disturbance will slowly move through the area today and this evening.
An inverted trough centered across the FL Peninsula will propagate westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Associated with the trough, a plume of deep layer moisture will move from east to west across the tri-state region bringing an end to the dry weather pattern we've been seeing the last few days. The inverted trough will steadily move westward this weekend into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Highs will be around 90 degrees with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Short-range model guidance continues to show good agreement regarding the development of another MCS along a cold front over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas after midnight tonight. Our region remains at the outlet of the upper ridge to our w and a trof over the Mid and Upper MS River Valley, and this has set up a sort of quasi-nw flow scenario that would be more common to us during early June.
1124 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind a dry cold front. Rain chances return Sunday with a trough of low pressure. Generally dry weather is expected overnight as high pressure builds in behind an exiting cold front. Otherwise, high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep conditions dry Saturday. This wave will help lift the stalled front northward as a warm front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms with its approach and passage.