Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low off of the Mid Atlantic coast will drift southward down the east coast this week, as a ridge of high pressure pivots over Pennsylvania. Increasing cloudiness and unsettled weather will return for the weekend as the remnants of the upper low lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Dewpoints are already into the low to mid 20s and could dip a few more degrees this afternoon as very dry air above the inversion mixes down to the surface. Large scale subsidence and dry air east of a building upper ridge over the Great Lakes will supply nearly cloudless skies today over central Pa.
It's been a mainly quiet day with settled conditions across South Texas as we're under the influence of a mid-level ridge. Not much change to the synoptic pattern with east of the mid-Atlantic Coast and another low developing just off the northern CA coast and ridging in the middle. Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler mostly across inland locales. Tonight's lows will dip into the upper 70s to near 80 and tomorrow night will be a tad cooler as well.
A quick update this morning to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for the Island Park region into the early evening as snowfall is expected to ramp up through the afternoon hours as the low cycles through SRN Idaho. Huston Several waves from an opening up and weakening upper low will move through southeast Idaho today bringing snow, rain and afternoon isolated thunderstorms. Will see warming Tuesday with about a 10 degree rise but still well below normal with highs in the 40s and 50s, overnight lows will likely be below freezing again overnight Tuesday. Expect only a slight chance of snow in the high elevations on Tuesday with dry conditions most locations.
208 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures.
215 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 The longwave trough across the Intermountain West will begin to oscillate this evening, with southwest flow drawing back northward across WY as the main trough axis deepens along the Pacific Coast. With the slightly warmer temperatures, most precipitation will fall as rain, with snow confined to the highest elevations. A jet max in the southwest flow will bring another day of gusty winds to the state, with widespread gusts above 25, and frequent gusts above 40 for the higher elevations and the wind corridor from RKS to CPR.
344 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will sit off the NC coast through mid-week, with cool high pressure ridging into central NC from the northeast. Water vapor satellite continued to display an upper-level low spinning just off the NC coast, and an elongated ridge stretching north from the Deep south into the Great Lakes Region. Surface observations showed low pressure off the NC coast, stacked below the upper-low, and ridging stretching across New England south across the East Coast. With ridging remaining in place across central NC, this will create a tighter pressure gradient and develop slightly stronger northerly wind gusts to 25 mph across more of the region Tuesday morning and afternoon.
In the upper levels, a large cut-off upper level low is is expected to drop south over the western Atlantic while an upper level ridge amplifies across the Mississippi River Valley.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas this afternoon with cyclonic flow over the state. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass over our CWA.
1239 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies with an impulse tracking over ND/SD. A more amplified trough is expected to start digging over central/southern CA on Wed and will track into the Central Great Basin by Wed night. Upper trough is expected to go negative tilt and approach the Northern Plains by Thu afternoon. Gusty south to southwest winds will ease and shift to north behind a weak cold front later this evening/overnight across western portions of central Kansas.
Another very warm night is in store with lows only in the low to mid 70s once again. hot and humid weather will continue through the week as a strong upper ridge builds over and just east of the region.
402 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
421 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Calm quiescent weather today will last throughout much of this week as a building ridge of high pressure resides across the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A building ridge of high pressure aloft will place its axis overhead of the region today and Tuesday.
338 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Dry weather and a continued warming trend can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
This cooler and showery pattern continues into Tuesday with well below normal temperatures and a chance of rain showers, especially over the interior hills.
442 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures.
145 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Sunny days, clear nights, and a warming trend in temperature can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS. Increasingly drier conditions and clear skies will allow for warmer temperatures each day.
256 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Pleasant, dry weather continues across the Florida peninsula as a ridge builds in the from the west, and an area of low pressure develops off the mid-atlantic states.
High pressure will be east of the region Tonight, with an area of low pressure moving slowly south across the western Atlantic will be east of the SC coast by Tuesday morning.
342 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
121 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Southern Michigan is positioned between high pressure to the east and low pressure lifting north through the northern Plains. Influence of the high still dominating keeping skies clear. Temperatures will continue to warm this week as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region. Temperatures will edge into the lower 70s in most locations (away from the cooling influence of the Great Lakes) as this gusty winds ushers in slightly a slight warmer airmass than yesterday.
1139 AM MDT Mon May 9 2022 08z surface analysis had low near KTIF with warm front to KICR and then to northeast SD. Tuesday, upper low drops into upper trough over CWA with upper ridge from TX to the Great Lakes.
257 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 The latest upper analysis shows the low pressure system that brought precipitation to the area over the last 24 hours is currently located over southern Manitoba with the last of the precipitation ending over northwestern South Dakota. A weakly defined upper ridge will lead to dry weather on Tuesday, with highs mainly in the mid-60s to lower 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will range from the lower to middle 80s with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 70s.
210 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warming temperatures are ahead this week for the North Country as high pressure strengthens over the region.
An elongated upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf northeastward into the Great Lakes will remain in control on the local weather through the near- term. Current satellite imagery reveals the development of a sea-breeze with a decent cumulus field along the coast which will keep temperatures a little cooler at the beaches today where highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s. By Tuesday, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen slightly which will increase the subsidence aloft and cause temperatures to be even warmer.
Upper ridging in the process of building in at this time. Some low level moisture has undercut the ridge with BKN 3-5 kft cigs presently.
High pressure remains to our east through the forecast period.
413 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
An area of snow, mixed with rain in the lower valleys, continues across an area that extends from east-central Oregon into west-central Idaho. The area of precip is associated with an upper low that is centered over eastern Idaho. The large-scale upper trough will reside over the region and support another round of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
236 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Key Points: - Unseasonable warmth continues; record highs in jeopardy - Thunderstorms becoming more likely later in the week Detailed Discussion: It's a hot afternoon as temperatures continue to climb through the lower and toward the mid 90s across the region. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the inverted trough axis later this evening, especially as the LLJ strengthens -- but should this occur in our forecast area, it would be in far northeast KS and then move off to the northeast and out of the area. Areas near and northwest of Concordia may sit close enough to the front not to climb into the 90s Tuesday, but other locations will see a repeat of today with breezy southerly winds and near- to-possibly-exceeding record high temps in the lower to mid 90s.
Cooler east and milder west temperature trends should continue tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 50s over NE AL to lower 60s NW AL. This will continue Tuesday with even warmer temperatures, with highs from the lower 80s east to upper 80s west.
If upper 70s and low 80s aren't your cup of tea and you want it warmer, you're going to get it over the next couple of days.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The mid level ridge continues to dominate the pattern through the short term period.
349 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 The low pressure system that brought rain and thunderstorms to the area last night into this morning has now pushed northward to eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota. High pressure settles in over the region tonight and Tuesday, then gets pushed eastward Tuesday night as low pressure tracks from Colorado to western Nebraska.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday Night): The mid level ridge continues to dominate the pattern through the short term period.
1213 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. High pressure dominates as an omega blocking pattern sets in. Temperatures will even reach near freezing in the highest elevations in the northeast mountains with the potential for some very patchy frost although should be fairly isolated and will also be in areas where the growing season has not yet started.
After sunset temperatures will begin to drop which will lead to a decoupling of the lower atmosphere and a dropoff of the stronger winds that are ongoing. With this advection of moisture, RH values in the lower atmosphere will reach saturation with at least scattered clouds expected by the morning hours. The aforementioned lower clouds will begin to dissipate during the morning hours tomorrow but will likely both slow the expected warming and lead to cooler afternoon highs compared to what was expected in previous days. Much like the last few days, the warming of the lower atmosphere will lead to stronger winds with gusts to 20 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
308 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Today and tonight: Upper ridging will amplify as it translates from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the period. This will occur as strong Pacific jet energy diving into the Pacific Northwest carves out a deep trough across the Great Basin. Warming low-level temperatures will result in noticeably warmer high temperatures today in the mid to upper 90s. Deep boundary layer moisture evident on last night's 00z JAN sounding will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s despite efficient mixing.
But upper trough remains in E Gulf with dynamics moving overhead again late tonight into Sunday morning.
Crockett, Sutton, and Schleicher counties will stay as a heat advisory, however, being a couple degrees cooler due to higher elevation.
The result will be cooler onshore flow for communities along and immediately inland from Lake Superior.
Otherwise, an upper ridge axis over the Plains states will begin to expand eastward later today, thereby allowing for some weakening in the NW flow regime across much of the region. In addition, a subtropical ridge pattern at the sfc is stretching westward into much of the Gulf region. All of this will translate into a warming trend beginning today, as afternoon highs climb into the lower 90s for most spots, under partly cloudy skies.
The upper ridge is in full control across the Southern Plains with the stronger northwesterly flow now displaced from North Texas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect area-wide, and while some locations may briefly touch the Excessive Heat Warning ambient temperature criterion, these will likely be fairly isolated and will also feature some of the lowest heat index readings since they will coincide with the most aggressive mixing of surface dewpoints. The strong upper ridge responsible for this intense heat will slowly shift eastward over the next several days before it drifts back westward by the end of the week.
237 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Upper ridging centered over the southern high plains. troughing south to over and offshore FL. By late Mon the ridge center is over the Deep South while the trough has exited to Atlantic waters. At the surface a moisture boundary across the northern portion of the state and an axis of high pressure along the Florida Keys lift northward through Mon. with the ridge axis reaching central FL late in the day. however the approaching upper ridging and the slightly drier air moving in will result in lower rain chances. Tue through Sat: The upper ridging dominates the southeast quarter of the nation until near the end of the week when is begins to shift to the northwest and north. The upper ridge will provide a stable.
Temperature wise, most of the area will fall into the low-mid 60s tonight. On Monday, a warm front is expected to lift northward through the day across the region. A moist airmass, steep mid-level lapse rates, and extreme instability will be in place, but a strong cap associated with the incoming ridge may hinder convection.
850 PM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 High pressure aloft will weaken through Monday as a trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. Gusty westerly winds will develop over the mountains and deserts Sunday and Monday, then weaken as the trough swings farther east. The high of 114 was also their hottest day of the year (so far).
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. Upper trough along the East Coast Sunday will gradually shift eastward as a large upper ridge of high pressure builds west of the area. Above normal temperatures are expected with highs in the lower 90s Sunday, low-to-mid 90s Monday with afternoon heat index values rising to 100 Sunday and 100-105 by Monday.
Today, an upper trough will move ashore over the Pacific NW, amplifying the upper ridge. Upper trough will deepen as it digs into the Rockies, placing us in southwest flow. Substantial 850-700 mb frontogenesis along the cold front will develop beneath strong potential vorticity advection late Monday afternoon, passing over the CWA during the evening. Expecting any initial supercells to merge into more of a line structure along the cold front during the evening, potentially becoming more of a wind threat later.
320 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 An upper level trough will move across the area through the weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the west early to mid-week.
1119 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Upper level analysis depicts a broad upper ridge over the western half of the US. As mixing continues through the afternoon, dewpoints will hover in the low to mid 50s across the area. Despite the meager thermodynamic environment, strong westerly winds along with northern periphery of the western ridge will result in effective bulk shear magnitudes 55-70 knots this afternoon and evening. A quick moving trough will move onshore near the OR/CA coast early Sunday morning. As this trough matures and digs across the southwestern US, upper level flow will shift out of the southwest.
Near-record heat is anticipated mid-week under an amplified ridge. Despite the loss of sfc base heating, from the advancing cold front mentioned above, strong convection could carry into the early morning hours of Monday; Hi-RES model soundings suggest MUCAPE could still range between 900-1200 J/kg ahead of the frontal boundary under lingering low-level moisture. While the NBM suggest some lingering showers and storms early Monday afternoon, ridging may suppress such activity; reduced PoPs slightly from guidance.
(Today through Monday) The center of a 500 mb ridge remains situated over West Texas early this morning. The ridge axis will shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley by Monday, with temperatures "cooling off" just a few degrees across the board.
A broad upper ridge is centered over the southwest of the United Sates today. Trough/cold front will sag southeast and will be in our eastern southern CWA by mid to late afternoon. The ridge will be centered over the central and southern United States plains and will provide another shot at some potentially severe thunderstorms for Sunday night with increased low- level moisture return forecast. MUCAPEs should be substantial enough to support some large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts, especially in the western CWA where the 850 mb theta-e ridge is forecast to be. Oppressive heat will be the rule for Monday as the subtropical ridge builds back, with highs in the 100s anticipated and no chance of precip as 700 mb temps in the 15-17C range will all be ensure a dry forecast.
1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (Rest of tonight) Surface analysis this evening shows ridging in control of the pattern through much of the SE US.
Storms are expected to form over high terrain in CO/WY early this afternoon, with additional DCI possible across the High Plains where an approaching trough will add upper support to an unstable afternoon environment. The transition to southwesterly flow across the High/Northern Plains will steer the majority of thunderstorm activity north of the forecast area, but cold pool dynamics could allow storms to briefly enter the northwest forecast area before pushing off into south central Nebraska.
500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA, resulting in dry weather.
Warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 80s lower elevations with lower 90s in the southern Tennessee Valley.
Today an upper trough will move onshore of the West Coast, bringing a west southwest flow aloft from the Desert Southwest into western NE. The upper trough will move across the Great Basin shunting the upper ridge axis toward the Mississippi Valley. Very strong heating will occur across the region ahead of a cold front moving across MT and most of WY. The upper trough will cross the Rockies Monday night and move into the Northern and Central Plains. This will drive a Pacific cold front through the area.
A cold front will switch winds to the west on Monday as cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and unsettled weather conditions prevail at times into the midweek. The upper trough will begin shifting downstream of the region late in the week as a new upper level ridge begins to become established over the area.
The pattern favors the highest PoPs from the I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend. Deep layer ridging will continue through the work week, but may break down enough to allow a cold front to move closer to the tri- state region this weekend.
A dry cold front will quickly pass through Northern California dropping afternoon high temperatures into the 70s with a slight chance of light showers in the North Bay.
Today Through Monday Night A ridge of high pressure will build over Arkansas today, and will give us our first real taste of summer. The ridge will drift toward the Tennessee Valley on Monday. A Heat Advisory may be required in eastern sections of the state closest to the ridge, but will likely not be needed farther west.
This AM in the upper levels, an upper ridge over NRN Mexico, NM, and TX will expand EWD across more the the SRN US with the center from W TX to the ARKLATEX. Only a lucky few will see an isolated storm or two with some weak perturbations around the ridge this afternoon. That is where we will see the higher max heat indices this afternoon of 100-104. The upper ridge shifts further for Monday to over MS/TN/AL with high temperatures inching up in response. We will have some afternoon isolated to scattered heat induced storms possible with weak disturbances around the ridge, but nothing organized.
324 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 The upper high that centered over west Texas yesterday is expected to remain in place today, resulting in not much change in thicknesses than what we saw yesterday. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday and a good potential for the 105F daily record high at both Lubbock and Childress to be broken by 4 to 6 degrees. The subtropical ridge will be centered over the southeastern CONUS by Monday morning.
and Monday Showers exited the forecast area with the passage of a cold front early this morning, but areas of low stratus and patchy fog lingered over the region. The low clouds are expected to shift south and west of the area this morning as drier Canadian air arrives. High temperatures will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, cooler near the lakeshore.
Temperatures will be cooler along I-70 today; but given the high dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s, heat indices will still be up to 105 or higher. But the warmer it is at 700mb, the hotter it needs to be at the ground to get storms.
241 AM PDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Cooler with shower and thunderstorm chances today. Cooler air will build in though as the cold front approaches and moves through NorCal. That will bring a much cooler day with highs 10 to 20 cooler than yesterday. Light showers are showing up on radar ahead of this approaching trough but much of it is falling as virga as we have dry air at the surface. Profiles will continue to saturate and shower coverage will increase towards daybreak as the cold front approaches the area. In southern areas showers will mainly be limited to the higher elevations but a shower or two will be possible in the Sacramento area. This is where forcing will be strongest along with the highest CAPE values. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish shortly after sunset as the trough pushes east.
ridging aloft today will help to keep us hot again with highs similar to yesterday and dew points similar to yesterday as well. Aloft we will be in southwest flow between the main ridge which is now to the east, and a large trof to the west.
On Monday, temperatures will be a little cooler and winds will become even stronger with dangerous fire weather conditions developing across all of northern Arizona.
The morning clouds and the possibility of some SHRAs/TSRAs complicates the forecast today with regards to heat across eastern sections of the Mid-South Meanwhile strong upper ridging will be building in from the SW with very humid air advecting in on SSW surface winds. This looks like the hottest, most uncomfortable day, as a 595dm upper ridge is centered over the area along with a very humid airmass.
Cooler temperatures regionwide today as a frontal boundary moves into Northern California bringing a slight chance of rain showers to the North Bay and down to around San Francisco.
617 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be another very hot one as upper ridging builds further overhead. As we saw yesterday, areas to the east will likely hold on to a bit higher dewpoints given lingering ground moisture and less mixing, and have once again gone towards the higher end of guidance with surface moisture for these areas.