Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Plume of monsoonal moisture continues to rotate around an upper high over north central Texas. Cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures should decrease the chance for storms tomorrow, but not by much. Sunday night, a weak north to northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region with the upper ridge over the western U.
1121 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Convection over the high plains, hasn't really gotten going too well, considering the weak moisture transport in wrn KS. Confidence remains high that below normal temps will remain in place through Tue with highs in the low to mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s. The main story through these extended periods will be another cold front set to come through toward the end of the work week. This will allow an unseasonably strong cold front to push- in from the northeast. convection over the high plains isnt all that impressive and given week moisture transport into this convection, think chances of this convection actually making it into Cen Ks is slim to none.
High pressure will continue to limit cloud cover and suppress any rain chances through early Sunday with exception to some overspreading upper-level cirrus. Low- and mid-level cloud cover should increase late in the day Sunday as moisture increases ahead of a weakening cold front. /issued 226 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Little change in forecast in the short term as the 500 mb ridge over the southwestern US and Texas remains in control. Combination of the ridge and subsidence will lead to the continuation of triple digit heat for most of the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, with the exception of the immediate coast to areas just east of Highway 77.
High pressure was over the region leading to partly to mostly sunny skies for most areas this afternoon. Cooler temperatures aloft have allowed for enough instability to cause showers in far northern Minnesota.
Another perfect late July day on tap tomorrow, with slightly warmer highs in the lower 80s under sunny skies. As the high sinks further southward, the pressure gradient will loosen and winds will be quite light on Sunday. With abundant sunshine working on the dry airmass, afternoon highs will rebound into the lower 80s. as a western CONUS upper ridge/eastern CONUS upper trough pattern dominates.
Another overnight MCS is expected across the high plains to our W/NW. Relatively dry and slightly cooler northeasterly flow should limit instability through the rest of the afternoon and preclude further convective development into the evening.
657 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure will stay in control over the region through Sunday afternoon.
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 H5 pattern across the CONUS today has an elongated area of high pressure extending from Texas west to California. A low amplitude ridge of high pressure was located across the western CONUS with a closed low over New Brunswick and a trough of low pressure extending south into the Carolinas. Within the low amplitude ridge, numerous weak disturbances were noted and have led to convective development across the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. By late afternoon and evening, thoughts here are to shift the highest threat for thunderstorms to the northwestern forecast area.
942 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Very little to adjust in the near term grids this evening, with a large surface anticyclone centered across the upper MS valley providing a refreshing break from the hot/humid conditions we experienced last week. as a 500-mb trough over the mid- Atlantic region brushes the region and strengthens large scale ascent. and slightly warmer near large bodies of water. Several of the models deepen this low into a tropical like feature, so it will need to be monitored closely.
Currently, semi-permanent anticyclone remains anchored over the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains region. Ridging is evident over the spine of the Rockies with northwest flow into the Great Lakes region along with main PFJ well north into Canada. Low level dry air continues to work into northeastern KS along with an area of modified Canadian high pressure off to the northeast of the area. This is resulting in pleasant temperatures into the 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s and even some upper 50s here and there. With slight easterly breeze and mainly dry air advection in place in the low levels, temps remain in the lower 80s for today and Sunday as well.
A deep L/W trough will extend down the eastern seaboard and over the Florida peninsula for the next couple of days.
High pressure centered over Wisconsin was pushing dry and cooler air into Middle Tennessee with north northeast breezes. The same high pressure will keep lovely wx across the area through the rest of the weekend. Under clear skies, lows tonight will drop to the lower 60s, except some upper 50s valleys and Plateau. Sunday will bring sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s, or around 4 degrees warmer than today.
704 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Dry with pleasant temperatures on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through the start of the work week. Dry conditions expected through Sunday under building high pressure. overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s with lighter winds and clearing skies. High pressure will remain in place through the start of the week.
744 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure will build across the midwest and Ohio Valley the early in the week, then slide off the southeast coast mid week.
1136 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a ridge axis to our west, centered over the high Plains of the west, with the attendant downstream trough inducing a northwest flow across the northern and central Plains of the CONUS. And, this nice weather trend will persist through the rest of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week as the ridge axis remains to our west, allowing seasonally cool and dry air to prevail.
926 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The low pressure system that affected the area over the past two days will continue to push move offshore tonight.
While coastal areas will remain cooler due to the influence of the ocean, a prolonged period of very warm to hot conditions will increase heat related risks across most interior locations through at least the first half of the upcoming workweek. Most of our region cooled slightly for the second consecutive day as a weak upper level trough settled over northern California. That trough maintained a marine layer depth of about 1500 feet which was enough to bring cooling marine air into most valleys. A warming trend will commence on Sunday as a broad upper ridge, currently dominating the southwestern United States including southern California, begins to build to the north and west. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with the most robust warming forecast to occur across inland areas.
The cold front still lies a little to our north, across central GA and AL, but will continue to slowly push southeastward through the early morning hours. Lows will dip to around 70 in our northern zones as the cold front moves through, but stay in the mid 70s across most of the area, upper 70s along the immediate coastline.
This pattern has brought cooler and much drier air into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0.
1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Dry with pleasant temperatures on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Templer Previous discussion -Disturbance moving across the CWA this afternoon has flattened the upper ridge across the area and provided some relief from the searing heat. Sunday will be sunny with generally light winds under the ridge.
A deep trough extending from the mid Atlantic into the southeast states will drop SE toward north FL into Sunday. A deep trough and frontal boundary dropping toward the area on Sunday will spell high chance for SHRA and SCT TSRA into Sunday, first starting across nrn terminals in the morning hours (north of KISM-TIX) then advancing toward the KMLB- KSUA corridor from mid day into the afternoon.
720 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 An upper level trough will cross central NC this evening, and exit the region overnight.
While coastal areas will remain cooler due to the influences of the Pacific, a prolonged period of very warm to hot conditions will increase heat related risks for interior locations through at least the first half of the upcoming workweek. This has temperatures slightly cooler compared to 24 hours ago with low clouds retreating to the coast at this hour. Should see inland warming to continue with maximum temperatures similar to or slightly cooler than yesterday overall. A warming trend will then get underway on Sunday as the mid/upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest builds westward.
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Cold front is located to the south of the state and High pressure will be in control of our weather through the TAF period.
1151 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Dry with pleasant temperatures on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
As the high sinks further southward, the pressure gradient will loosen and winds will be quite light on Sunday. With abundant sunshine working on the dry airmass, afternoon highs will rebound into the lower 80s. as a western CONUS upper ridge/eastern CONUS upper trough pattern dominates.
Some cooling will occur today behind a departing low pressure system.
So far the large stratus area associated with a cold front across Manitoba is trending to the east of the CWA. Wednesday: a quick moving surface front and proceeding warm front will push east across the state.
Forecast confidence is high: Clouds will exit this evening into tonight, giving way to mostly clear skies through Wednesday as high pressure moves in. Cooler temps are expected behind the departing cold front, but will still likely be a couple degrees above seasonal values.
350 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 /Through Tonight/ Recent satellite imagery and surface observations are showing the cold front near Wichita Falls at this time. High-resolution models continue to show dry air in the low levels, which may prevent the atmosphere to saturate, and/or the precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground. In terms of timing, this will depend as the cold front approaches the area, but for DFW Metroplex it looks like the best time for isolated showers will be between 10PM-3AM. Low temperatures for tomorrow morning will be in the 40s for the western part of the region (around 10 degrees cooler than this morning) thanks to the northwesterly winds. The front will be near East Texas early Wednesday morning, therefore temperatures will stay mainly in the low 50s east of I-35.
315 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 18Z surface data has the cold front from east of KGRB to KMCI. Breezy but dry conditions will be seen through sunset as the cold front crosses the Mississippi and moves across northern Illinois. Tonight and Wednesday, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Wednesday night, warm air advection will sustain temperatures well above freezing.
What this also shows are the developing inversions for the lower valleys.
1204 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail through much of the day ahead of a cold front set to sweep through tonight. A low chance of rain showers will also accompany the cold front as it passes Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong southwesterly flow helping keep temperatures quite balmy for late November with readings from the lower 40s NE to lower 50s NW. Cold front still well NW of the area, located from the arrowhead of Minnesota to NW Iowa. Another northern stream trough will move through the Great Lakes late in the weekend. Stronger trough will begin to dig into the central Plains with any possible impacts remaining outside the current forecast period. Breezy southwest winds are expected in advance of a cold front this afternoon.
After 16z, conditions should gradually improve as daytime heating and increased boundary layer mixing gradually lifts the low stratus deck to around 1000 feet.
1137 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
1215 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Moisture starved cold front tonight.
1113 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 Upper level flow will remain amplified, but progressive in the period, bringing mild weather with periodic ridge topping/flattening impulses in the flow. However, the main wind event will be with the cold front late Wed morning and afternoon across NW SD. Any snow will likely be confined to the higher elevations of the Black Hills. PAC westerly downslope flow will return Thur into the weekend with forecast models still supporting an amplifying ridge by the end of the weekend as a deep trough drops into the western CONUS.
356 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Compact upper low over the Texas panhandle will move east across northeast Oklahoma late tonight and northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in association with this system, with the greatest coverage of rain near and north of the upper low track. Considerable low cloudiness behind this system will keep temperatures Wednesday significantly cooler than those seen today.
1207 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 The upper level trough that brought last night's cold front will continue pushing east.
A cold front will drop through the area overnight. A mid and upper level low moving out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains this afternoon through tonight will send a cold front south into Texas. The weak cold front will move into the Hill Country and Rio Grande after midnight and through the remainder of the CWA by daybreak Wednesday. Slightly cooler on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
1033 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 The day started a touch cooler than expected as dewpoints have been a bit sluggish to respond to now-southeasterly winds. High pressure will then bring another period of dry and slightly above normal temperatures through the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend.
Surface cold front extended from northwest Iowa through southeast Nebraska and north central Kansas at 200 AM. High pressure builds into the area behind the front today and tonight. By tonight, models develop a closed upper low over the southern plains which tracks east toward the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This northern system will drag another cold front through the area by Wednesday evening.
Am going to go a bit warmer than the morning lows experienced this morning, given the greater moisture and likely cloud cover developing late especially over the western areas.
1257 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 19z surface analysis had weak departing high pressure over the northern Plains with a developing lee trough/warm front from central MT into eastern WY. Water vapor showed split upper trough moving into the Great Lakes with next trough of interest coming onshore via BC/WA/OR. Tonight, upper trough races into the northern Rockies as warm front sharpens with 4-5mb/3hr pressure falls across the western Dakotas. Previous studies have shown this is a good setup for a downslope wind storm so have hoisted a high wind warning to account; just a wind advisory for Rapid City area with best wind on far west side of town into the higher hills. Wednesday, upper trough continues to race east pushing a cold front through the CWA.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s edging in along this line and lower dewpoints lower to mid 50s west of the line. Winds relax tonight as cold front near SPS at 18z today marches southward. /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ The day started a touch cooler than expected as dewpoints have been a bit sluggish to respond to now-southeasterly winds. High pressure will then bring another period of dry and slightly above normal temperatures through the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend.
301 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Surface cold front has pushed well south of the forecast area, but remnants may meander northward again, as compact upper system moves from northeast New Mexico into southeast Kansas overnight. As high pressure moves east on Wednesday, allowing winds to return to a more southerly direction. With H8 thermal trough remaining across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, do not expect big bounce in temperatures and trended toward more conservative max temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
307 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure remains near the coast through tonight.
Southerly wind flow to pick up today, as well as an eastward advancement of thermal ridging.
a few of these could move ashore starting this evening once the lower-level airmass moistens but coverage looks slim enough to remove VCSH mention for the evening hours. Expect conditions to improve by late morning although showers may begin to increase in coverage with the approach of the cold front.
105 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
251 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure remains near the coast through tonight.
414 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
Scattered showers may begin to affect Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Southwest Arkansas late in the period as a cold front approaches the area.
245 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Gusty southerly winds continue this afternoon resulting in current temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across the region. For late tonight into tomorrow, the trailing end of a cold front will sink into southern IN and north central KY. Highs should top out in the low 60s in this region.
/issued 310 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017/ Remnant of the cold front currently lifting north from the Florida Straits will continue to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorm across southern Miami-Dade County and the Atlantic waters through the morning hours. Due to the increase in cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the low 80s across the region and overnight lows remain around mid 60 to low 70. By the end of the week, next cold front arrives and pushes through the area.
246 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 As of early this afternoon, a cold front was cutting through the forecast area - passing through the KC Metro just before 2pm. The back edge of these clouds have cleared far NW MO, including STJ, allowing for temperatures to warm even behind the cold front. The cold front will make slow progress southward during the remainder of the afternoon before becoming quasi-stationary just to the south of the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Low clouds will hold across the area on Wednesday, with cooler high temperatures in 50s.
325 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Upper level trough over Ontario into northern MN will continue moving east tonight. Winds will switch to the south later tonight and gust out of the south/southwest for Wed with the approach of the next trough. Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will move into the Northern Plains Wed night. A little cooler air will move into the region for Thu.
Fog development is not anticipated west of I-35 due to a cold front set to move through the region.
119 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 At 1 PM, a cold front extended from the Straights of Mackinac to Kansas City Missouri. Temperatures ahead of this front were in the lower and mid-60s. On Wednesday night, a short wave trough will move quickly southeast through the region. By the time enough saturation occurs along and ahead of the cold front to produce precipitation, this front will be already exiting the area.
Tonight high pressure settles into the region but slides quickly east of the area by 12z.
A cold front has pushed through the forecast area overnight and will result in gusty northerly winds today and high temperatures that will be around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday's record setting warmth. However, it will still be a good 10 degrees above our normal high temperatures which are now only in the lower 40s. A cut off upper area of low pressure will slide across Oklahoma and southern Kansas, but will be far enough south that any precipitation should be south of our forecast area.
\/Hodanish A cold front moved thru the southeast plains this morning and will continue bringing some gusty northerly winds thru much of the morning. An upper level low will move east- southeast over northern NM today and into the TX panhandle by late afternoon or early evening. There is also a chance that some light freezing pcpn could occur over portions of Teller and northern El Paso counties this morning, however with generally warm ground temps, it doesn't seem that it would affect the roads, but caution should be used if freezing pcpn does develop. Temps today will be much cooler than yesterday, and it generally looks like the southeast plains will see highs in the 40s, but some lower 50s are possible over the far east plains.
A warm and breezy day is in store for central Indiana today, with a dry cold front arriving and moving through tonight.
Meanwhile, skies have already cleared across the northeast corner of the state and have also begun to clear in the high country. The cold front that slipped through the area overnight has already raced south through the Texas Panhandle. The poorly organized upper low presently spinning over north central New Mexico will also continue its east-southeastward trek. Temperatures in the high country will certainly be cooler today, but not to the extreme as that on the plains. A shallow layer of moisture was all that developed in the wake of last evening's cold frontal passage over northeast Colorado. Temperatures are expected to remain much cooler than yesterday's record setting numbers, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 40s across the plains. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue tonight, allowing temperatures to drop back down to around the freezing mark.
238 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure remains near the coast through tonight.
350 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 The latest surface map features retreating high pressure off of the Eastern Seaboard. A weak cold front extends from the Great Lakes down across the southern Plains, with another area of high pressure building in from the Rockies. Aloft, broad ridging is found in the East, with a pair of short wave troughs rotating through more the middle of the CONUS. Skies will remain clear initially tonight, before a weak cold front approaches from the northwest towards dawn, allowing for an increase in cloud cover. Expect the eastern sites to dip into the lower 30s, with mid to upper 30s in the broader valleys. Lows along the ridges will generally be in the mid 40s. The cold front will essentially dissolve as it drops down across our region on Wednesday.
1144 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 A ridge axis aloft extends from the southern plains northeastward into the OH valley with a trough from the Rockies into the northern plains. At the surface, a fairly tight pressure gradient was located across the area ahead of a cold front which extended from southwest KS up towards the U. The cold front will move into the area today and we should have some better dewpoints along and ahead of the front (as evidenced by observations over eastern KS). Eastern Ozarks will have the lowest humidity levels during the afternoon (in the 20s), but surface winds will likely keep fire weather conditions in the elevated category.
/Issued 319 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2017/ High pressure center is currently located across the Carolina's. The high will move offshore today, but continue to dominate the weather through the short term period of the forecast.
Lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer with the downslope flow and modest warming aloft. On Wednesday, models show the tail end of the upper trough passing over the nrn Colorado mtns. Could see a stray snow shower or two over the higher peaks with its passage. Otherwise a dry and warmer day with high temperatures 12-15 deg f above highs today.