Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the first half of the week.
Even as the dry slot works into central Wisconsin, freezing rain may turn to freezing drizzle to continue support of headlines this morning. Quiet weather for tonight into Wednesday with a high pressure ridge drifting over.
410 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front moved across the area overnight and will remain well south of the area the next 24 hours. A closed upper low currently over northern Mexico will lift northeast into New Mexico by early Wednesday.
/Issued 348 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Water vapor analysis reveals a broad trough across the SW US and into Mexico with several notable perturbations rotating within. with center of ridge across the Yucatan and quasi- zonal to SW flow across the SE. Will see wedge front retreat while the cold front pushes south and east during the short term. Rain chances will be confined to mainly north Georgia today and will increase as the day wears on with aforementioned cold front moving towards the state. Overnight Tuesday the cold front will push through north Georgia. kept highs a touch cooler in the low-mid 60s. Areas near and south of the front will see highs in the lower-upper 70s.
628 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Rain showers with areas of fog and possibly a rumble of thunder will continue early this morning as low pressure tracks into the lower Great Lakes.
621 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Warm front lifts through early this morning. Cold front this evening into tonight. Several areas of precipitation expected through the near term as a warm front moves through early this morning, followed by a cold front late afternoon into tonight. transitioning across the western and then southern CWA out ahead of the cold front. In the wake of the warm front today, temperatures will be unseasonably warm with 60s for most locations across the lowlands. As the cold front crosses to the east late this evening and tonight, temperatures will begin to fall.
Ridge tops, like the Prairie Coteau and Leola Hills, should warm into the upper 20s or warmer today. Warmer air will filter into the region on Wednesday with temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s for most locations. Have ignored the warmer GFS solution and kept temperatures cool.
601 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 08z/2am surface analysis shows 1008mb low near Chicago, with cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. to the lower 50s near the Indiana border. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 30s. A weak area of high pressure will build into the Midwest on Wednesday, leading to a gradual clearing trend. Think the NAM may be suffering from its usual low-level moisture bias, so have decided to go with skies becoming mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 40s.
The highs for the day have already occurred, and temperatures the rest of the day should fluctuate only slightly. Updates to the hourly temperature trends primarily impacted the southeast CWA, lowering them several degrees from the lower 50s into the mid- upper 40s. 08z/2am surface analysis shows 1008mb low near Chicago, with cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. to the lower 50s near the Indiana border. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 30s. A weak area of high pressure will build into the Midwest on Wednesday, leading to a gradual clearing trend. Think the NAM may be suffering from its usual low-level moisture bias, so have decided to go with skies becoming mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 40s.
313 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Low and mid-level clouds remain over the southeast corner of the CWA at this hour, aligned with a southwest-northeast tilted upper trough axis over the area. Otherwise a dry and warmer day with light winds. Lows tonight about 5 deg f warmer with the warmest readings along the base of the foothills. Benign weather pattern for the next 60 hours with dry conditions and warmer temperatures for much of the region.
747 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Update/Marine A storm system moving through the Great Lakes will bring rain and freezing rain to the area into mid morning. High pressure will bring dry conditions with slow clearing Wednesday into Wednesday night.
/12Z TAF/ Surface analysis at 11Z has cold front ever so slowly from KELA/KTME to north of KIAH. Needless to say but cold front combined with convection both surface based and elevated may for challenging TAFs for the next 24 to 48 hours.
/ISSUED 313 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016/ BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE DEEP PLAINS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST.
844 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MEAN LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. LOW TEMPS ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH COASTAL AREAS AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
1019 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO. WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY DRY WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE WITH RIDGES OVER THE ERN USA AND ALONG THE W COAST. A STALLED CUT-OFF LOW WAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER. THESE TWO VORT MAXIMA WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW WITH THE UT VORT MAX ORBITING THE S SIDE OF THE LOW THRU SRN CO TONIGHT. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED N-S THRU THE PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS ALONG THE ERN BORDERS OF NEB/KS DOWN INTO TX. A PIECE OF THE HIGH WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
APPEARS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY HANG OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TIMING THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAIN ISSUE IS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW MOVING ONTO SOUTHWEST US COAST.
We can not rule out some fog tonight as well, but it should not get overly dense and widespread in nature given the lower trop staying somewhat mixed.
COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE COOLER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU AND EXITS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEAK AND MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY BEGINS IT'S PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE ECMWF HAS DRIER LOW- LEVEL AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ON SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
846 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
1056 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
/issued 300 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough hasn't moved in the past 24 hours, and may have regressed a little, remaining over western CO. Closer to home, area radars show earlier convection over the Lower Trans Pecos has largely dwindled, w/a few -SHRA in the Permian Basin, w/even 0. Mesoanalysis shows the Lower Trans Pecos to be capped, so better chances for convection this afternoon should be a bit further north.
Carrying the higher PoPs across these areas, with lower PoPs farther west and north.
WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE A MORNING SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW TRUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER WOBBLES ACROSS NEBRASKA.
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
736 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
LOWERED LOWS FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES AS WELL IN SOME LOCATIONS WHERE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING BROUGHT COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
Meanwhile the cut off upper low remains over northwest CO. Surface obs indicate the trough axis is just to the east of the forecast area with some drier and cooler air advecting in from the northwest. Have not made many changes to the low temp forecast as models continue to support readings from the mid 40s across north central KS to the lower 50s in east central KS as a result of some weak cold air advection.
CIRCULATION FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO PUSH A MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
THE GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TODAY/S 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. LIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND EXPOSING OUR REGION TO INCREASING DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
845 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND BRING MORE VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH BLOCKING RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. ONLY PLACE THAT WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT WOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW STARTS A SLOW MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.
531 PM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE LOW. TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ON THE PLAINS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL RAKE NW COLORADO PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM ASPEN-VAIL NORTHWARD.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS AS NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT KDHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER WESTERN COLORADO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THOUGH WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW.
1244 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 THE LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING, AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS BEING FUELED BY A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND THE STATE STILL INFLUENCED BY THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
918 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
1052 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
846 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 WARM AND DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A BREAK IN MENTION OF SHOWERS TONIGHT DESPITE UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM COLORADO INTO SCTRL WY. LOWS REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM THE LOWER 30S WEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH SERN CO/SWRN KS LATE TONIGHT.
1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down into the Texas panhandle. Cold front looks to stall across the region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm development by early afternoon.
937 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, OUR NEARLY-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CHANNELING A STREAM OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX AREA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA.
640 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down into the Texas panhandle. Cold front looks to stall across the region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm development by early afternoon.
along weak front/inverted surface trof where modest dewpoint pooling was occurring.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS AFFECT ON CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT HELPING TO CLEAR CLOUDS FROM MY NORTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NORTH. TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH MAXES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WITH BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS. SFC RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND WILL NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
734 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY.
916 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to NorCal tonight through tomorrow. A series of upper level disturbances will bring cooler temperatures and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms towards the end of the week. High pressure will continue for one more day to dominate the weather pattern with above normal temperatures. The pattern will start to shift late in the day as a weak low pressure area approaches the interior.
THESE SHOULD MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THRU MIDNIGHT. UPPER LOW TO PERSIST IN WYO REGION OVERNIGHT. GULF GETS CUTOFF AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
758 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
For Tuesday, the upper low and associated vort lobe moves east across the Central Plains with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading west to east. For Tuesday night, the upper low and vort lobe will be moving east of the area with any lingering light showers ending west to east with the last area up around I-70 closer to the upper low.
1215 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR I-94 TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH STEADY FLOW FROM THE NE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 12Z DTX RAOB INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. ALLOWING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. DELIVERING A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMPARED TO THE 80+ DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 C AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WANES DURING THE DAY.
620 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOWER SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY 18Z TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPS TO AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRYING THAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
932 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO BRING QUIET CONDITIONS LATE TODAY. THIS IS CURRENTLY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SIZABLE RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT NIGHT AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL FINALLY BE MAKING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HAS THE PROFILE STABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
The upper level ridge will finally start to break down across the central portion of the country as the broad upper low over the Rockies starts to make its way east towards the Mississippi Valley later tonight. The leading band of showers well out ahead of the upper low will track east and into parts of west central Illinois late tonight and crawl its way east into parts of central and east central Illinois on Tuesday. With the increase in cloud cover tonight and a light southerly flow, temperatures will not be as cool as the past few mornings with early morning lows expected to range from the lower 50s far north to the upper 50s over the southwest.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND MOST OF THIS WEEK.
A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TODAY/S 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. LIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND EXPOSING OUR REGION TO INCREASING DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
High amplitude Ridge overtop FA will hold another day, then begin to break down in response to the Low's approach. We see showers out ahead of the Low, as close as western portions of MO/AR. As the ridge breaks down Tue/Tue night, and dew points amp upwards, we'll see pcpn chances increase and begin to expand eastward across the rest of the FA. Pops spike Wed-Wed night, as the Low begins to barrel its way across the upper Mississippi river valley.
1100 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS WAS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
1246 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH MIDWEEK AND RISING TO LEVELS 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
725 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NW CO THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE SERN U. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO NE CO BY 00Z WED. NAM SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
706 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
610 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AND EVOLVE INTO STG/NEAR FULL-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING AS OF MID AFTERNOON. AND SCT- NMRS SHOWERS WL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXIT LATE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO SEND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
723 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO UPSTATE NY TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
1057 PM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE LOW. TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ON THE PLAINS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL RAKE NW COLORADO PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM ASPEN-VAIL NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MEANS VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF RAIN.
638 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 The upper low currently over the Rockies will move ewd very slowly tonight. Tilly A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru the upcoming weekend. However, look for a cooler day Tuesday than today due to the increased clouds, with the warmest values over in IL away from the rain, where upper 70s may still be attained, but areas towards northeast-central MO struggling to get much over 70F.
947 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS ONCE AGAIN MEANT DELAYING THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAINFALL AND HENCE A REDUCTION IN OVERALL POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SUCH THAT THEY MAXIMIZE ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT AT MINOT TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH BLOCKING RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. ONLY PLACE THAT WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVERNIGHT WOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW STARTS A SLOW MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.
1053 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AND EVOLVE INTO STG/NEAR FULL-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING AS OF MID AFTERNOON. AND SCT- NMRS SHOWERS WL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO SEND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL WI AFTER 11Z.
1008 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY.
1249 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON THE REGION. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THEREFORE THROUGH SUNRISE THINK MOST OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. UPPER LOW TO PERSIST IN WYO REGION OVERNIGHT. GULF GETS CUTOFF AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
Outside of when showers are occurring, the lowest conditions will likely be reserved for FYV/XNA/ROG, where IFR visibilities should occur for much of the time between 06 and 18Z.