Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1119 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Southwest flow around high pressure over the Atlantic gradually increases humidity and warmth through the end of the week along with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The latest surface analysis had a somewhat washed out surface boundary with a weak north wind and a dewpoint in the mid 60s at Eppley and a south wind with a dewpoint in the lower 70s at Plattsmouth. With the low dewpoint spreads tonight and the front in the area.
(Issued 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016) Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated an area of high pressure to our east and west this afternoon; one located over W TX/Nrn Mexico and the other over the Bahamas. At the sfc, high pressure was parked over Ern AL/Wrn GA to our SE, with a cluster of thunderstorms on the western periphery of the ridge surging northward, encompassing much of Srn AL.
At most think a few sprinkles being seen at the surface seeing Cheyenne NexRad not showing much in the low levels (that and the boundary layer airmass is very dry).
1021 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Update We'll have a few opportunities for rain during the next 36 hours as several waves of low pressure move across Lower Michigan. Cooler and drier air will move over Lower Michigan late in the week and the weekend. Radar is beginning to light up as a trough moves across the cwa.
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Upper level high pressure to our south will continue to ridge in to the Southeast through mid-week. Late this week, the upper ridge will weaken and shift to our east as a broad upper trough moves over the eastern US. Further convective activity is not expected overnight due to the lack of forcing mechanisms and synoptic scale subsidence beneath an upper level ridge.
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Windy conditions across the region this afternoon as pressure gradient is tight with the low pressure across southern Canada.
Showers and tstms have sustained themselves across southern IL this afternoon a bit more than expected, as a mid/upper low in the vicinity damps out.
730 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure sliding to the east and an upper level ridge overhead will cause very warm and muggy weather for the middle of the week.
Thus, kept the higher PoPs south while only slowly bleeding 15+ values northward.
/Tonight/ High pressure in place at the surface with a baroclinic zone aloft stretching across the central/southern portion of the state.
On Wednesday, a cold front will move across the region Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Severe tstm potential will continue over east central Wisconsin into the early evening, as a cold front, s/w trof and RRQ of an upper jet sustain convection in an atmosphere with strong instability (CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg) and strong shear (50+ kts).
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure sliding to the east and an upper level ridge overhead will cause very warm and muggy weather for the middle of the week.
Will keep mainly slight chance PoPs, with slightly higher values along the southeast ridges.
940 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with westerly zonal flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was located across central Manitoba, with weak surface trof extending south into central South Dakota. Closed low over southern Canada will continue to slowly move east, with mainly zonal flow remaining over the Northern Plains. Upper closed low lifts through the Hudson Bay area with weak ridging over the western CONUS. West to northwest upper flow remains across the area, with slightly cooler temperatures expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
If things come together and the low level moisture is able to return to the area before the boundary and lift moves through there between 12-18Z, the potential for a few stronger storms with large hail and strong winds is there for Wednesday morning. Wednesday night will see drier and cooler air settle in the lower levels which will stabilize things and keep dew points in the 50s. Will have a small chance for thunderstorms in mainly southwest Minnesota during the afternoon where just enough mixing coupled with cooler mid level temperatures could allow a few storms to develop.
The upper trough axis still resides to our west, however. This trough axis will take its time moving eastward and could still combine with just enough moisture over our PLateau to produce a shower or tstm later tonight.
there is an apparent weak upper trough seen on water vapor imagery that is moving through central wyoming and northwest colorado. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer under the persistent warm ridging over the region.
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Update/Aviation We'll have a few opportunities for rain during the next 36 hours as several waves of low pressure move across Lower Michigan. Cooler and drier air will move over Lower Michigan late in the week and the weekend. Radar is beginning to light up as a trough moves across the cwa.
A dissipating upper trough extends over eastern sections of the Mid-South. An upper ridge poking into western sections of the Mid-South with very warm mid level temps should help put a damper on rain chances across Northeast Arkansas this afternoon. Otherwise plenty of sunshine and temps in the lower 90s over most of the area. The Mid-South will be under the influence of an upper ridge poking into the region from the Southwest U. Lows will be in the 70s each night with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 90s on Tuesday.
An area of low pressure will slide westward along the KS/OK border this evening reaching far southwestern Kansas by sunrise tomorrow. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will shift from central Kansas tonight into western Kansas by sunrise tomorrow.
A low amplitude short wave trof is crossing the nrn Rockies this eve with a dry westerly flow over our CWA. An upper trof forms along the PacNW coast this weekend with a series of short waves rotating thru it. There is a 40 percent chance that winds will briefly become light and variable or even and light northwest after 07z with a dry cold front, but speeds are expected to remain below 7 knots.
High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds. An onshore flow is still hanging on across central California this afternoon and will likely continue through this evening between an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and a ridge of high pressure aloft over the Desert Southwest. A significant warm up will occur over the central California interior during the next few days as the high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest builds northwestward.
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure sliding to the east and an upper level ridge overhead will cause very warm and muggy weather for the middle of the week.
Well defined upper trough, as seen in water vapor satellite pics, is lifting into central ID this evening.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a strong trough across southern Canada and the northern CONUS, with a downstream ridge over the eastern seaboard. Mainly isentropically-induced convection has considerably waned over the past few hours, likely owing to mixing out of the low-level inflow through the late morning/early afternoon hours. Lows will be muggy with readings in the low to mid 70s. On Wednesday, heights will build slightly over the region ahead of the trough diving into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be warm and muggy, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices pushing towards 100 degrees.
706 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure sliding to the east and an upper level ridge overhead will cause very warm and muggy weather for the middle of the week.
The upper low will continue over the region which will keep the weather in a similar pattern for the next couple of days.
Montana remains under the influence of wrap-around moisture from the strong upper low over south central Canada.
819 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Southwest flow around high pressure over the Atlantic gradually increases humidity and warmth through the end of the week along with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will persist through the end of the week. However persistence is working well lately so expecting some good sunshine to break free by late morning with coastal temperatures still reaching the low to mid 60s.
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area tonight through Wednesday night.
521 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with westerly zonal flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was located across central Manitoba, with weak surface trof extending south into central South Dakota. Closed low over southern Canada will continue to slowly move east, with mainly zonal flow remaining over the Northern Plains. Upper closed low lifts through the Hudson Bay area with weak ridging over the western CONUS. West to northwest upper flow remains across the area, with slightly cooler temperatures expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
844 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area tonight through Wednesday night.
Lingering showers this evening will taper off overnight as an upper level trough moves east of the region.
Temperatures are generally running slightly warmer over the interior this evening.
The broad subtropical ridge centered over the Southern Rockies will nose into the region from the west, limiting the potential for diurnal convection on Wednesday. A few stray showers can't be ruled out, but most of the area will remain dry with temperatures warming into the low/mid 90s. A dissipating upper trough extends over eastern sections of the Mid-South. An upper ridge poking into western sections of the Mid-South with very warm mid level temps should help put a damper on rain chances across Northeast Arkansas this afternoon. Otherwise plenty of sunshine and temps in the lower 90s over most of the area. The Mid-South will be under the influence of an upper ridge poking into the region from the Southwest U. Lows will be in the 70s each night with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 90s on Tuesday.
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Bermuda high pressure will keep warm and moist southerly flow over the region through the week.
The upper trough axis still resides to our west, however. This trough axis will take its time moving eastward and could still combine with just enough moisture over our PLateau to produce a shower or tstm later tonight. Weak mid level trough axis extends down interstate 65 at midday but is ill defined.
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Bermuda high pressure will keep warm and moist southerly flow over the region through the week.
A trough axis and band of deep moisture will continue to work very slowly eastward across Mid TN today. With clouds and showers, temperatures will hold mostly in the 70s, but during the breaks in the rainfall, highs could still privily jump up to the lower to mid 80s.
A low pressure trof is moving over the West Coast and very strong winds aloft ahead of this system are spreading across the Rockies.
1058 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front currently stretches from Malden, Missouri to Pine Bluff, Arkansas. A cold front stretches from just West of Paris, Tennessee.
1039 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Dry conditions this morning will see increasing clouds ahead of an upper level trough moving out the Great Lakes region.
1046 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A moist airmass will remain in place ahead of a cold front, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
Given the low odds, will not insert in the forecast at this point but continue to monitor and see if the model trend continues.
A strong U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula will gradually retrograde to the southern Plains over the weekend, but will continue to extend over the forecast area. A L/W trough over the northern and central plains will gradually push east and will extend from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through with light boundary layer flow.
947 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A moist airmass will remain in place ahead of a cold front, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
Strong winds aloft will support breezy conditions, especially over the higher terrain and ridgetops from this afternoon all the way through Sunday.
812 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
1235 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
749 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Dry conditions this morning will see increasing clouds ahead of an upper level trough moving out the Great Lakes region.
1047 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front back to the west near the Mississippi River has lead to a few showers/storms across West and Middle TN. The highest values are across the Plateau counties and expect this is where the best PoPs will be later this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 87 69 / 40 40 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 69 84 66 / 10 30 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 84 66 / 10 30 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 64 82 63 / 10 20 60 40.
Upper air analysis last evening showed nearly zonal flow over Texas with a strongly tilted trough over the southwestern US. The subtropical ridge was centered over Florida. The weak mid to upper level flow will continue during this period as the trough over the west coast cuts off into a low and the subtropical ridge builds slowly across the Gulf.
1050 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Carolinas through tonight.
/Today/ Upper low to shift East today dragging the upper trough associated with the low across the state today. No precip is expected with this but temps will be a few degrees cooler than previously forecast.
High pressure over the region will once again keep the flow weak today, allowing both an Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze to develop by afternoon. A very similar pattern is expected on Sunday as high pressure continues to dominate.
1207 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A warm front will lift north of the region early today. slow moving cold front will follow on Sunday.
Britt Showers over southwestern Illinois are tapering off as of 08z, with some isolated showers associated with trof which extends from northern Illinois through STL metro area to south central Missouri. So some isolated/scattered showers not out of the question with this trof.
A mid level ridge will build over South Texas while the deeper moisture remains over the Gulf waters.
High pressure will then build to the north later in the week.
Minor adjustments made to sky cover as the back edge of overcast area associated with departing upper low gradually advects eastward. Primary challenge for the rest of tonight and today will be departure of some light rain showers over northwest Minnesota associated with an upper low/trough over wrn Ontario/northern MN. An upstream short wave ridge will move move over the Dakotas today and bring dry weather to the eastern Dakotas and RRV, with some lingering showers through the morning in the far northeast. This will bring much warmer overnight lows to western zones tonight, generally in the mid 50s. about 10 deg warmer than last night.
The general theme Sunday through late week will be breezy, mostly dry and seasonably warm weather, as western CONUS upper ridging attempts to build east. Medium range consensus supports a rather deep/amplified western CONUS longwave trough developing by late week, which will continue to support near to above normal temperatures and breezy south winds.
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the Piedmont, and a weak trough (oriented north to south) centered near Apalachicola. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a weak trough, an MCV from a large cluster of earlier thunderstorms, centered along the LA coast.
Today will be quiet overall with high pressure ridging over the region and moist zonal flow working into the Northern Rockies increasing middle and high level clouds from the west. High pressure ridging will be over the area today bringing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. The ridging begins to break down this afternoon as a fast zonal flow aloft moves in from the Pacific northwest.
A cold front will move through the area today, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Models prog a mid level high pressure system to shift east across S TX today leading to an increasingly dry/subsident airmass across the area. A better chance will remain across the coastal waters due to deeper moisture and better proximity to upper trough axis that is located across the NW Gulf. A mid level ridge will build over South Texas while the deeper moisture remains over the Gulf waters.
Given that the higher res mesoscale models have performed the best recently, they will be weighted more heavily in the forecast. The terrain induced convection has the potential to push eastward into the FA possibly merging with convection along the lee trof to form a QLCS.
836 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a cold front on Sunday night.
High pressure currently situated over central ND will move into Minnesota today as low pressure deepens over the Canadian and northern Rockies in response to a strong upper level jet nosing into the northwest U. Quiet still tonight but we will see increasing clouds along a cold front that pushes into the northwest by early Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will be about 5-7 degrees cooler than today in the northwest and 5-7 degrees warmer over the James River Valley. An area of showers is expected to develop along the left exit region of the strong jet ushering in the cold front on Sunday.
724 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Showers over southwestern Illinois are tapering off as of 08z, with some isolated showers associated with trof which extends from northern Illinois through STL metro area to south central Missouri. So some isolated/scattered showers not out of the question with this trof.
Current observations indicate that Napa airport has the lowest visibility with 1/2 mile. Highs today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with 60s to lower 70s at the coast, and 80s and 90s inland. High pressure aloft will continue to build in over the area this weekend and Sunday is expected to be the warmest day.
50s and 60s will prevail for the higher terrain out west.
However, slightly increased high temperatures across the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain Foothills given current temperatures in the lower 70s. Rain developing across the Lower Columbia Basin this morning will move over Southeast Washington and Northeast Oregon by this afternoon. The East Slopes of the Cascades and the Basin will then become rainshadowed, and the highest precipitation chances will focus over the Northern Blue Mountains this evening.
The main cold front ran from eastern Minnesota into southeast Nebraska. Ahead of the cold front, dew points were in the 60s with 70s near the Gulf Coast. Behind the cold front dew points were in the 40s and 50s. The cold front will move through the area today and tonight.
613 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Early this morning, the upper low was sliding slowly eastward along the MN/Canada border with the associated vorticity max progressing through northern MN, sparking additional showery activity there. A ridge axis will push in this afternoon and will be followed by low level warm air advection in southwesterly flow tonight.
A cold front with some tropical moisture will bring wet weather to much of the region today.
Expect storms to move off to the east after 06Z along with the upper trough.
MORNING UPDATE: A trough with a stream of Pacific moisture behind it has formed a strato-shield off the southern Alberta and northern Montana. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Flow aloft over Northeast Montana today backs around to the west as a broad upper trough moves into Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This westerly upper flow, a southwesterly surface breeze, and the departing ridge, with generally sunny skies, will lead to a warm day with highs running around 10F degrees above average. Tonight a weak, dry cold front out ahead of the western trough will move through the local area.
High temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s today. Additionally, an approaching cold front from the northwest to allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Interstate 30 corridor late this afternoon.
915 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Trough of low pressure across southeast Montana will move east today. High pressure currently situated over central ND will move into Minnesota today as low pressure deepens over the Canadian and northern Rockies in response to a strong upper level jet nosing into the northwest U. Quiet still tonight but we will see increasing clouds along a cold front that pushes into the northwest by early Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will be about 5-7 degrees cooler than today in the northwest and 5-7 degrees warmer over the James River Valley. An area of showers is expected to develop along the left exit region of the strong jet ushering in the cold front on Sunday.
Interaction between old surface inverted trough and mid level low has allowed a bit more activity from East Central Louisiana down through Southwest Louisiana. Rua The low level inverted trough and mid level weakness will meander slowly east across the forecast area today as it begins to feel the developing westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough. However, lift from northern stream upper level trough combined with residual moisture and daytime heating should be enough for at least scattered showers and storms.
941 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
A cold front stretches from just West of Paris, Tennessee.
1031 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Cold front currently lingering over eastern Iowa should push into the region this afternoon bringing drier conditions. Lingering clouds should keep temps cooler than previously expected. An upper-level low and associated troffing will still lie to our west for much of the day, along with a surface cold front. Notably cooler and less humid air will filter into the region tonight behind the cold front, with low temperatures tonight expected to fall into the 50s over most of the forecast area.
1115 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today.
An upper-level low and associated troffing will still lie to our west for much of the day, along with a surface cold front. Notably cooler and less humid air will filter into the region tonight behind the cold front, with low temperatures tonight expected to fall into the 50s over most of the forecast area.
635 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Minor adjustments made to sky cover as the back edge of overcast area associated with departing upper low gradually advects eastward. Primary challenge for the rest of tonight and today will be departure of some light rain showers over northwest Minnesota associated with an upper low/trough over wrn Ontario/northern MN. An upstream short wave ridge will move move over the Dakotas today and bring dry weather to the eastern Dakotas and RRV, with some lingering showers through the morning in the far northeast. This will bring much warmer overnight lows to western zones tonight, generally in the mid 50s. about 10 deg warmer than last night.