Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Based on these trends will certainly continue PoPs throughout the area during the afternoon, with max PoPs (in the high chance category) in a narrow corridor from central IL to approximately KVIH.
645 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID WEEK. THEN DROP OFF THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
1248 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY.
A BROAD BUT POORLY DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE E PAC THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARMER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MON. A LARGE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE WEAK CA UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTS E INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MARINE AIR TO SPREAD BACK INLAND WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. BUT LIMIT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO THE CASCADES DUE TO COOLER SURFACE TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
PALMER DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. THERE WILL A RIDGING ALOFT TNT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO BECOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A VIGOUS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SO WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
414 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 995MB LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO BIG BEND OF TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO MISSOURI TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS EAST APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
ON EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
We should see winds gradually picking up from the south to southwest later tonight as the trough strengthens. This should hold low temperatures up a few degrees over the cooler MET MOS guidance.
SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) Strong cold air advection will continue across the CWFA for the rest of the afternoon and tonight as high pressure drops southeast from the northern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. There will be some modification of the airmass as it blows south, so guidance numbers in the low to mid 20s look reasonable. Wind will turn back to the south late Wednesday morning or early afternoon as the ridge axis slides east of our area.
640 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
634 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN EARLIER PROGGED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
NOTHING TO GET VERY EXCITED ABOUT FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
A couple of strikes have occurred near Grand Coulee and more are possible with the cold front for the next few hours. RJ 00Z TAFs: A cold front running from KOMK to KMWH at 00Z will track east to the ID/MT border by 03Z-05Z.
MILD CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SOME TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT 9 PM. COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NC SW TO NRN GA TO SRN LA.
315 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 THE RELATIVELY FLAT AND DIRTY WESTERN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS WED NIGHT. MODELS THEN PROMISE A BIG CHANGE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON SUN. UNTIL THE LARGER TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON MON. AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES.
Cold front is moving through the area at this hour. As the cold air moves in behind the cold front tonight, snow levels will be dropping rapidly. While in most situations the cold frontal passage signals the end of precipitation, this case will be different. The low that is currently offshore will also traverseacross our area, renewing the threat of precipitation later tonight. Even the Basin and northern valleys will see some snow late tonight before the low exits. Will continue to monitor this for potential travel impacts but right now it appears that temperatures will remain above freezing tonight. RJ 00Z TAFs: A cold front running from KOMK to KMWH at 00Z will track east to the ID/MT border by 03Z-05Z.
AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WL THEN SEE THE WINDS DIE DOWN. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ON THU AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER CO. FRI THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY A SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
Gusty south winds expected Wednesday, however, as high pressure moves east and a lee trough develops. /issued 324 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has pushed across all of West Central Texas, leaving slightly cooler conditions and gusty winds in its wake.
PASSAGE OF NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT CAUSES SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGHS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES OVER RIDGETOPS. A SECONDARY LINE OF RAIN HAS FORMED BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BEFORE THE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOCATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE THE RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY DAWN. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO A GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SAVE FOR THE TYPICAL "CHASE THE TEMPERATURE" OBSERVATIONS ALWAYS OBSERVED WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS FRESH SNOW COVER. ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE TRIP UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AXIS POKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW.
/ISSUED 202 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN COOL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT.
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM WASHINGTON TO NORTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING LEESIDE TROUGHING WHICH WILL BE INCREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BRING A WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FA ON WED WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION SLOWING AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. SOME STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ABOVE FL035 WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS INDICATED TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
THIS MOISTURE IS UNDER THE RIDGE THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 140 KT JET WILL HELP TO BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOKING AT 1-4 INCHES WITH RATES POSSIBLY GETTING UP TO 0. WITH INCREASED GUSTING ON THE PLAINS MIXED WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES AND DRIED FUELS WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SLOWLY MOVG SOUTH OF I-20 ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH. COLD FRONT ONLY LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND TROF.
1025 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT STILL PUSHES INLAND WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AFTER COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH. COLD FRONT POSITIONED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN CWA BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH. TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
LAPSE RATE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS HAVE STEEPENED AND OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE BASED /SB/ AND MOST UNSTABLE /MU/ CAPE AROUND 1100 J/KG AND SB AND MU LIFTED INDEX AT -5. /ISSUED 332 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE EXTENDED FROM MERIDIAN TO MCCOMB MS AND ADVANCING EASTWARD UNDER WARM LAYER ALOFT. SOME WAKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR A FAIR WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE WINDS STEADILY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY AND ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
435 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 THE RELATIVELY FLAT AND DIRTY WESTERN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS WED NIGHT. MODELS THEN PROMISE A BIG CHANGE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON SUN. UNTIL THE LARGER TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON MON. AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT SUSTAINED THE CONVECTION EARLIER IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES BUT THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 47 35 54 / 90 10 0 70 KKNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 43 31 50 / 100 10 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 43 31 50 / 100 10 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 39 28 50 / 100 20 10 50 TN.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH CNTRL NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO N-CNTRL MO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE MOBILE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A GRADUALLY MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. WHILE THE HIGHEST MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ON THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA.
643 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION.
959 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
A SECONDARY LINE OF RAIN HAS FORMED BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BEFORE THE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOCATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE THE RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY DAWN. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO A GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
COOLER AIR WAS MOVING IN WITH BRISK NW WINDS. BUT WE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT. AT 23Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO TO NEAR CSV AND HSV. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATTER HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CSV AREA LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E/SE OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S, THE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND WIDEN THE DEW POINT SPREAD, KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR, INCREASING WIND, AND THE DIURNAL DECREASING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE NOTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS TROUGH WED MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS EVENING. THE LOW HAS BEEN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
The cold front as of the writing of this discussion is right on the doorstep of the forecast area. This front will quickly move through the region this evening bringing with it a wind shift to the northwest and much cooler temperatures. High pressure will briefly build in and move across the region tomorrow.
SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND THERE ARE WIND ADVISORIES UP FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
954 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACRS THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
This cloud cover should not have an affect on the low temperatures since they should occur during the late evening and early morning. This low level wind maximum should coincide with peak heating therefore allowing gusty winds to mix down to the surface. Dew points drop into the low 30 which will cause minimum RH values to approach low 30 to upper 20 percent. With low temperatures almost 8-10 degrees above freezing, any precip that can make it through the dry layer near the surface will fall in the form of rain.
546 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH THE HIGH AND IS EVIDENCED BY THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE.
945 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
837 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
A DRY NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR INTERIOR ZONES TO UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
Expect decent mixing and momentum transfer of the higher winds to the surface, especially in areas along and west of Interstate 49.
547 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN EARLIER PROGGED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
639 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
AN ERODING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
426 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 Much cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds made for a rather chilly day across the region today. However, a clipper system approaching the region and associated pressure falls across the High Plains will have winds veering around to more southwesterly by Wednesday morning.
600 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 Much cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds made for a rather chilly day across the region today. However, a clipper system approaching the region and associated pressure falls across the High Plains will have winds veering around to more southwesterly by Wednesday morning.
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE /THATS ON THE HIGH SIDE/. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED. RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST RHS ARE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.
A line of convection currently stretches from northern Georgia southwestward into Mississippi ahead of a cold front.
1001 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.
/ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. NOT A LOT OF ISSUES GOING FORWARD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A REINFORC- ING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THUR. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF AOA THE BAJA SHOULD HELP DRAW DIST- URBANCES (VIA THE SRN STREAM JET) ACROSS THE REGION BY MON AS POPS RETURN. PCPN PROGGED TO INCREASE TUES/WEDS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEP- ENS (INTO POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW) AND BEGINS MOVING EAST. 41 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
Underneath high pressure. high pressure will slide east southeast through the region with some high clouds continuing to move overhead.
642 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 AVIATION A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW.
Cold front moving from eastern WA into ID panhandle at 8pm. Brief downpours and isolated wind gusts up to 63 mph have been observed with the cold front. We still will have the low to contend with as it tracks over the area tonight. With the falling snow levels behind the cold front, much of the precipitation will fall as wet non-accumulating snow. RJ 00Z TAFs: A cold front running from KOMK to KMWH at 00Z will track east to the ID/MT border by 03Z-05Z.
838 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN EARLIER PROGGED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MAKES IT WAY EAST. RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REGION FOR THU/FRI. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU AS SOME COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
452 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED NEAR A BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO EAGLE PASS LINE. TEMPS HAVE SPIKED INTO THE MID 80S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. COOLER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.