Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE JUST HOW LONG STRATUS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. AND IT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO FOCUS ITSELF VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AND A DEEP TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA.
A WEAK BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A NE SURFACE FLOW WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE E-NE FLOW AROUND 925-850 MB IN THE VALLEY. HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER N FL AND TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY. THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA COMBINED WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO DESPITE A S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND DAMPENING THE RIDGE AND A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SE CONUS. RED TIDE CONDITIONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL BEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND IMPACT BEACHES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AS WELL AS BOCA CHICA BEACH.
UPPER LOW BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE IN EXTENT AND DENSITY AS IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LACK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. AND MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE LOWLANDS. WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR GIVING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WHERE IFR FOG IS PROBABLE IN THE 09Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN GULF PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Thurs looks to be slightly warmer than today with highs ranging from 80-86.
216 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
Showers and a few thunderstorms have develop across the higher terrain of southeastern New Mexico this afternoon, with showers also extending northeast into the southern Panhandle and western Oklahoma. This activity has developed in association with a weak mid level trough over the southern Rockies and upslope flow across the higher terrain. Cannot discount the WRF entirely, as the ridge begins weakening and aforementioned mid level trough sinks south across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH. PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
325 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A FEW CIRRUS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BUT THEY SHOULD BE THIN. A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE LIGHT EAST BREEZE. THERMAL PROFILES GET A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ON MOST OF THE MODELS ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OH. NOT SURE WHY IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW IS OFF THE WATER.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVER AL SO COULD HAVE SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY KIND OF DRY SLOT THAT WRAPS AROUND FROM THE SOUTH.
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THEY REBOUND FROM THE PRE DAWN LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR 60 ON THE RIDGES TO MORE UNIFORM MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS CURRENTLY.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES CENTERED PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO VENTURE FAR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND IT AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER WITH LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. BUT SHOULD STILL RUN IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
322 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRINGING IN HIGHER PW AIR. 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHER END APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WEAK LIFT UNDER THIS LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
352 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES HOLDING LOWER CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY WELL TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH IF ANY DELTA LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH MORE CLEARING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
304 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER REGION MAY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. REMAINING PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO SEEMS TO TAKE MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN SPLIT MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. SO WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER EURO SOLUTION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GENERATING CONVECTION UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
143 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
236 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER MAY BE COMING TO AN END BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOWS A LITTLE MORE CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
Expect this isolated precipitation to remain south of the CWA, but the mid-level cloud cover may keep low temperatures a degree or two warmer in some locations with readings in the low/mid 50s.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SC/GA. HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY/PA BEGINS TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
1232 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CLEAR/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BELOW 20000 FEET AND LIGHT WINDS (NORTHEAST-EAST) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM WORTH NOTING IS THE LOW RISK OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WORKS TOWARDS THE AREA.
1049 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 High pressure dominating Central Illinois this morning, and will keep the fair weather in place over much of the Midwest. Winds should be relatively light, and mainly out of the east, although some variability should be expected under the ridge. Fairly weak pressure gradients associated with the high will bring light winds ranging from northeasterly to southeasterly. primarily I-72 northward where the lightest winds are occurring in close proximity to the high center. soundings indicate fog will be fairly shallow and patchy unless temperatures cool into the low 40s. cooler than expected at this time.
622 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 130 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/ THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SE THRU NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER TROF THAT DROPS THRU THE REGION ON MONDAY IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH HAD MORE OF A MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE SPANNING THE EASTERN U. A LOW CLOUD DECK IS MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY.
1247 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S/WEST TO 80S/EAST WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A PERSISTENT SW-NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA IN THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS/BROAD RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING NORTH TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING CONTROL. WARMER. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT WILL JUST NUDGE INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WITH ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND LATER IN THE DAY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
1229 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION INTO CWA TO AID IN MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF WITH EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SIMILARLY COOL AS THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL BOUNCE OFF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO WEAR IT DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TERMINALS WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ACROSS RIDGES ALREADY UPDATED. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY ADDS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. THIS FEATURE IS TOO WEAK TO PUSH THROUGH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS NE OREGON AND N-CENTRAL ID MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN /MTN RIDGELINES/ WHERE SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
MODELS PUSH THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK AND PRESSURE TROUGH BROAD.
In fact, by the end of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off the coast of British Columbia.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +7C.
608 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN FILTERING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
745 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES SO READINGS OVER NERN CO WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HEART OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
A DIGGING GREAT LAKE-TO-OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO PULL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH.
624 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WHICH BRINGS KEEPS A COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
Based on the sfc wind field the cold front is along a Presidio/ Dryden/Del Rio Line. The cooler sfc airmass is being overrun by a moist tropical plume coming off the disturbance southwest of Baja California Sur. 00Z KMAF sounding showed the freezing level around 12. Isentropic lift from the tropical plume overrunning the cooler sfc airmass will bring periods of showers/thunderstorms. It appears that the best potential for significant rainfall today will be across the Permian Basin and the Low Rolling Plains. The subtropical ridge will build back into the Southern Plains starting tonight with ridging continuing thru the upcoming week.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER HAS BEGUN TO SUPPRESS SOUTH WHILE A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX/LA/MS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE WESTWARD OF THE 2 TROUGHS BUILD SOUTH. POST FRONTAL COOLER AIR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMING MONDAY AND THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS.
929 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY. THOUGH PROBABLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER ONSHORE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST PLACES THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TODAY.
1142 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EASTERN NC AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT WHERE CAA WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SC/GA. HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
OTHERWISE HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 IN NORTHWEST IOWA TO THE LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HESITANT TO TAKE TEMPS EVEN UP TO THE FULL 925 HPA MIXING OFF COOLER NAM/ECMWF VALUES. WESTERN CWA WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION TO WARMER TEMPS AND POTENTIAL DEEPER MIXING.
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
Fog and/or light showers may develop late tonight as the warm front lifts northward. skies are forecast to begin to clear out as a ridge of high pressure builds from the Southwest U.
High temperatures expected to be in the upper 90s in the valley, low 90s in the foothills, and 80s in the higher elevations. NOO High pressure will remain in the control as heights continue to build today.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 70S. KTW /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/ A LOW CLOUD DECK IS MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
1021 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION: WEAK/BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT OVERALL RIDGING UP INTO ONTARIO MONDAY.
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND RIDGE RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A DIGGING GREAT LAKE-TO-OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO PULL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH.
1116 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
This will work to shift the high east of the region and bring the potential for some of the showers to linger into this afternoon and possibly affecting portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. A broad upper level ridge will move over the area Monday and build through mid week. The upper ridge is expected to keep the region generally dry for the work week with very limited potential for any rain development.
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE LOW-MID 70S TO THE WEST/SOUTH WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WITH ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND LATER IN THE DAY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly developing across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing across extreme eastern Colorado. In fact, by the end of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off the coast of British Columbia.
1006 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +7C.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AND NWRN GULF. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH MODEST EAST WINDS. RIDGING REMAINS IN THE REGION ALOFT FOR MONDAY.
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION: WEAK/BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT OVERALL RIDGING UP INTO ONTARIO MONDAY.
THE RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
THE OFFSHORE LOW CIRCULATION STILL EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS TRAIL RIDGE LATER THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARMER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO INSURE A DRY NIGHT.