Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure at the surface centered over Central Alabama will keep conditions quiet and warm across the mojority of the forecast area today. It will remain mostly clear tonight as the high continues to shift eastward.
High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen across the Intermountain West through the first half of the week. This high pressure will generate very warm temperatures and dry conditions across most of the state.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak ridge extends over South Florida. At the surface there is a weak pressure gradient and a weak cold front has moved through the region into Central Florida.
associated with an upper trough. /issued 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, south of the Big country, as an upper trough over the Concho Valley moves south of I-10 tonight. Highs today will be mainly in the lower 90s, with lows tonight in the mid and upper 60s.
This week high pressure systems and cold fronts will take turns controlling Indiana weather. High pressure should be with us into Labor Day, with the first cold front passing Monday night.
656 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Complex of thunderstorms that moved across much of the area has pushed southeast of the CWA as the cold front continues to move to the southeast. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through midday over the southeast half of the CWA as there will still be some ascent ahead of mid-level trough that will move across Missouri and Illinois later in the day. Clouds will clear out slowly today and there will be some cold air advection which will allow for cooler temperatures than yesterday. Skies will turn mostly clear behind the mid level trough axis tonight.
Upper level analysis has broad trof continuing to shift east into the Great Lakes region, while western ridge shifts onto the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies. Western CONUS upper ridge will build into the Great Basin, and a warming trend will begin across the area. Upper ridge will continue to build tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. For the upcoming week, strong upper ridging will keep weather mainly warm and dry.
The first is our still present upper low feature stretching from the Alabama coast into Central Alabama that is still generating showers at this hour. The upper flow is expected to open up over Central Alabama today as the low elongates and shifts to the southwest over the open gulf waters. Outside of boundaries in the afternoon and evening from the northwest, convection will also be influenced by our lingering upper low feature already here that should continue to generate scattered convection during the day. Our main area of convection will likely shift to the north/northwest late today into this evening as the upper low shifts to the south and front gets closer to the state.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from Chicago through St. A cold front from the Great Lakes to the southern plains will slowly press south into the region with multiple rounds of convection possible. As the cold front presses south later this afternoon and the airmass recharges with additional development that will continue into the overnight hours. The long wave trough over the central states will provide some upper support with a belt of stronger mid level winds pressing south into the area.
1133 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front has moved through most of the area this morning with only slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Broad upper trough will prevail over the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley through mid week, as ridging builds west of the Rockies.
Current satellite imagery indicating quite a bit of cloud cover and with cooler column temperatures in the 60's seems reasonable.
Models are in good agreement for surface ridging to remain over the forecast area with northwest flow aloft.
524 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Current IR satellite loop shows some low clouds lingering across the high plains of southeast Wyoming and into the southern Nebraska panhandle early this morning. It should be dry across the area today, but can not rule out a few sprinkles along and north of the Pine Ridge, including Lusk and Chadron as some jet energy moves eastward. For Monday, The strong upper level ridge which is responsible for the heat wave across the desert southwest, will begin to build northward and nudge eastward through the day. The high plains will remain in northwesterly flow aloft, so temperatures will be slow to increase.
615 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 308 AM CDT A cold front is moving through northern IL this morning while convection continues south of I-80. The upper level trough currently over Minnesota and Iowa will slide east. Expecting isolated/scattered showers and storms to form north of I-80 this afternoon under the influence of the trough. Temperatures will be cooler today, and west winds will be gusting 25- 30 MPH this afternoon. The upper level trough slowly shifts east early this week then zonal flow sets up aloft.
West winds will gust 20-30 knots today with the highest gusts near Fond du Lac and Sheboygan, closer to the low. Still a small chance for a brief shower and maybe a thunderstorm, with the cyclonic flow and cooler air aloft. Cyclonic flow today and cooler air aloft will result in isolated showers and possibly a tstorm for the afternoon.
There is large agreement across MOS and model output for highs this afternoon for highs in the low 80s.
1215 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east across the local area later today and tonight.
Today will be another very warm and dry day across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Low rain chances enter the forecast very late tonight and on into the day tomorrow as a slow moving cold front sags southward toward our northern counties.
Cooler air and clouds behind the front will offer an atypically cool June afternoon across just about all of the forecast area.
As a cold front sags southward across Kentucky tonight, Middle Tennessee will be located in a band of deep pre-frontal moisture.
All in part of the stubborn ridge across northern Mexico. However, cooling aloft is expected today as a trough axis slides southwest along the southeastern periphery of the ridge. This should lead to temperatures being a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still remain hot across the region. For Monday, hot temperatures are expected to continue, however will trend cooler by a few degrees compared to today. This is due to the extended trough axis slowly bringing down a boundary across Texas. Even with the higher chances that something does indeed develop, the eventual strength and track of said system is greatly unknown.
932 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Latest CONSSHORT guidance is a bit cooler across srn valley than prev fcst and with expected cloud cover today, will go ahead and lower region (Wahpeton/Breckenridge) 2 to 3 deg. Current satellite imagery indicating quite a bit of cloud cover and with cooler column temperatures in the 60's seems reasonable.
A deepening semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northeast Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan will lifting and exiting to the east this morning. Rain showers associated with the passing upper trough/low will linger over northwest Wisconsin and parts of the Arrowhead through mid morning. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals, with highs in the low to middle 60s. The beginning of the extended periods on Monday night should see the western Great Lakes region underneath northwest flow aloft on the western periphery of the larger scale mid level trof over eastern Canada.
Temps were mainly in the low to mid 70s across Mid Tn. For today, the cold front driving the shower and thunderstorm activity will move southeastward, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms into Middle Tennessee.
By this evening this ridge will lift northward across North Florida. Prevailing SSE winds continue through midweek as high pressure noses northward from south Florida to over or just north of the local waters Mon-Wed. Low pressure near the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into the central Gulf of Mexico this week.
This has forced a cold front southward into Oklahoma. ) outflow/cold pool strengthening as storms track southeast along periphery of ridge and edge of stronger mid-level capping. Thunderstorms should reform near the slowing cold front across south- central and southeast Oklahoma later today.
Today the ridge starts to get serious for the desert southwest, with the ridge amplifying through the region, followed by the high center slowly consolidating over Arizona in the next 48 hours.
617 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cooler air has spread across the area with temperatures in the mid 50s early this morning. Weak mid level convergence, a small ridge of warmer temperatures near the mid level moist layer and the surface heating will allow for CAPE values around 500 J/kg. One reason for a threat for small hail with such minor instability is a freezing level around 8000-8500 feet AGL. With the cool dry air in place lows will fall into the lower to mid 50s in most locations by early Monday morning. The first half of the week will be characterized by a warm up as upper level ridge works east into the plains.
Surface ridging and a drier low-level airmass will prevail into the early part of the week. with warmer temperatures returning later in the week as southerly flow develops.
1037 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Moisture and instability are quite a bit higher in the 12Z OHX sounding compared to yesterday, thanks to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching trough. Severe threat looks low/marginal until greater shear and upper level diffluence develops tonight as the trough gets closer.
VFR conditions expected to continue for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in place. /issued 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A strong 500 mb ridge anchored over the southwest United States and northern Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to triple digits across the western areas, mainly along and west of US 281/I-69C corridor.
Nevertheless, coverage of shallow convective cells and fast-moving altostratus/nimbostratus has been increasing during the last few hours, as forcing for ascent associated with a complex trough over the northwestern Caribbean Sea increases locally. The complex trough and low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will move north-northwestward this afternoon and this evening, and this will bring increasing cloudiness and rain chances across the Keys. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Hawk Channel, the Straits of Florida, and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Seven Mile Bridge. A high pressure cell over the western North Atlantic will expand and intensify this afternoon through Monday. At the same time, an area of tropical low pressure will migrate northwestward, from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico.
Aloft - A broad ridge sprawled across the southwest corner of the nation. a trough stretched from the Deep South to the Bay of Campeche. and Atlantic ridging was off the eastern seaboard. Surface - Atlantic high pressure reached across FL/ with an axis through north-central FL/ and over the Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure was in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The western upper ridge slides over the southern plains as the Atlantic ridge builds in over GA/FL with the trough re-centering over the western or southwestern Gulf. At the surface the FL ridge axis lifts up to the AL/GA/FL border while the Caribbean low pressure tracks into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure is being monitored for possible tropical development. The lows will be normal to a bit above.
A weak warm front over the coastal waters will continue lifting north today. High pressure aloft will prevail tonight and Monday.
707 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east across the local area later today and tonight.
1202 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around.
It will be much cooler and turning blustery, with highs only reaching the middle 60s northwest to the lower to middle 70s southeast. Will carry the highest pops over the southeast half of the forecast area in the afternoon, as the best instability (CAPE around 500-1000 j/kg) will reside there. High temperatures will range from the middle 60s to the lower 70s.
Looking for another day of fresh southeast to south winds due to strong high pressure over the Gulf, including some gradient tightening interaction with inland lower pressure. VFR conditions expected to continue for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in place. /issued 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A strong 500 mb ridge anchored over the southwest United States and northern Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to triple digits across the western areas, mainly along and west of US 281/I-69C corridor.
Welcome relief from the heat will be felt across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today and Monday thanks to the cold front which passed overnight. Morning clouds will assist in holding temperatures into the lower- to mid-80s most sections. All good things come to an end with temperatures rising again as mid-level ridge over southwest CONUS broadens.
Today-tonight: Will linger rain showers/thunderstorm into the morning when combo of upper trough/diffluence and drier air finally shuts down precipitation.
Upstream ridge building quickly so expect flow to be turning a bit more anticyclonic this afternoon helping shut off the sprinkles but mountains will still intercept some of the moisture. The weather across the Northern Rockies will continue to be dominated by a building ridge. With the building heights temperatures will continue warm up, but this will be gradual as the main ridge axis stays west of the state.
The rain is due to a cold front making its way through the state. Sunday through Monday night At the 08Z hour, a cold front associated with broad cyclonic flow to our north was draped from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest and located just to our northwest near the Kansans, Missouri, and Oklahoma state lines. The cold front is expected to continue moving into Arkansas early Sunday morning and should slowly move southeast as the day progresses. Accompanying the cold front will be showers and thunderstorms some of which could have some strong wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall.
Winds and seas start to increase later tonight as a low pressure system enters the Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula nd spreads deep tropical moisture into the region. This low pressure is being monitored for possible tropical development.
1041 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 11 am temperatures from the West Texas Mesonet show that we are running about 20 to 30 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday across much of the Caprock, and about 10 to 20 in the Rolling Plains. /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to Clarendon line as of 345 am. Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the Desert Southwest.
Per verification, did trend towards the lower edge of guidance for forecast relative humidity southwest and towards the higher edge of guidance for winds for most areas with efficient mixing expected. Northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by the 00 UTC global suites is forecast to transition to zonal by mid week, before a continued transition to low amplitude troughing late in the week.
616 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A much needed, much quieter day is on tap in the wake of last evening's cold front. Sunshine should arrive in time to allow sufficient diurnal heating during the afternoon, but this surface heating will battle increasing northwest winds/CAA and only allow highs to reach the low 80s.
725 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
Models remain in good agreement that convection should continue to ramp up along and ahead of a cold front to our north later this afternoon with another Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely, but this time for our northern most zones that would go through the evening hours. /issued 757 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, MVFR stratus into most terminals with cirrus thickening from the N along cold front scattering TSTMS in E OK. Cold front KOUN and will arrive overnight with scattered convection.
/Today through Tonight/ Confidence: High Finally the significant trough has pushed the high thetae air south of the area for a couple of days. H850 subjective analysis shows approaching cold front/trough which will swing into the north later this morning and afternoon. With cloud cover highs will only reach the lower 70s north and the upper 70s over the central and south.
Northwest flow aloft will reside over SE Oregon and SW Idaho today as an upper ridge builds into Oregon. Ridging over the area will leave dry and warming conditions today. Moisture looks to ride along the ridge beginning Monday morning, which will increase clouds across eastern Oregon.
1116 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. A cold front to our west will make slow in roads to the east. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period.
High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday with dry weather and light winds. An upper ridge moves inland from the Pacific which will allow for somewhat warmer temperatures on Monday.
The outflow from this system should push through the entire area regardless of the strength of the convection, and the cold front is not very well defined as it moves through our region. It still looks like it may take most of tonight to get the front and the last of the convection out of the area, but the cooler weather is still on track for Monday.
A cold front from the Great Lakes to the southern plains will slowly press south into the region with multiple rounds of convection possible. As the cold front presses south later this afternoon and the airmass recharges with additional development that will continue into the overnight hours. The long wave trough over the central states will provide some upper support with a belt of stronger mid level winds pressing south into the area.
A cold front is forecast to push across central Texas into the Hill Country on Monday. Due to cloud coverage and the slight chance for rain across the Hill Country, maximum temperatures should be few degrees cooler than today's high temps.
/issued 411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to Clarendon line as of 345 am. Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the Desert Southwest.
Main focus for today will be the upper low that you can see rotating near Montgomery AL on the latest radar imagery. The Canadian model which was previously the quickest, strongest and most easterly tracked model is now pushing the low west of the Mississippi River delta. After that I will keep scattered POPs through the period as the region remains under weak upper troughing and no matter what the eventual resolution of the tropical system is, we should see ample moisture across the state.
This will be a brief break in the heat as high pressure strengthens over the southwest United States and sends the hottest temperatures so far this year over the area.
Surface analysis showing high pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and adjacent gulf waters. Aloft, area remains within a northerly flow between high pressure ridging east through Texas, and low pressure over the north central gulf. Rain chances expand area-wide for Monday as the upper low retrogrades west into the northwest gulf while the midwest front advances south into the area providing a low level focus for convective development. Winds will trend east to northeast moving through Monday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the northwest gulf from the north, in concert with an area of low pressure advancing from the western Caribbean into the south- central gulf.
A low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes Region today, and its associated cold front will impact central Indiana.
757 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period.
Satellite and upper air analysis tonight reveal a mid-upper level low in the northwestern Gulf, with dry air on its leeward side, over north FL and southern GA. With drier conditions in place, temperatures will be warmer today, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
515 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof continuing to shift east into the Great Lakes region, while western ridge shifts onto the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies. Western CONUS upper ridge will build into the Great Basin, and a warming trend will begin across the area. Upper ridge will continue to build tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. For the upcoming week, strong upper ridging will keep weather mainly warm and dry.
A deepening semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northeast Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan will continue lifting and exiting to the east this morning. Rain showers associated with the passing upper trough/low will linger over northwest Wisconsin and parts of the Arrowhead through mid morning. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals, with highs in the low to middle 60s. The beginning of the extended periods on Monday night should see the western Great Lakes region underneath northwest flow aloft on the western periphery of the larger scale mid level trof over eastern Canada.
1055 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Showers are developing along a weak cold front draped across NE South Dakota. With less instability and dry air in the lower levels, expect little QPF with these storms.
Cyclonic flow today and cooler air aloft will result in isolated showers and possibly a tstorm for the afternoon.
An upper level ridge will build northward over the region today into Monday.
There are a few showers upstream in Minnesota and Wisconsin on the back side of the upper low. KMD 308 AM CDT A cold front is moving through northern IL this morning while convection continues south of I-80. The upper level trough currently over Minnesota and Iowa will slide east. Expecting isolated/scattered showers and storms to form north of I-80 this afternoon under the influence of the trough. Temperatures will be cooler today, and west winds will be gusting 25- 30 MPH this afternoon. The upper level trough slowly shifts east early this week then zonal flow sets up aloft.
On Friday, a weak boundary associated with an upper trough pushing off the eastern seaboard will provide enough lift to the region to result in some scattered thunderstorm activity mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor.