Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure pushes east overnight. Modest instability on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE does support thunder chances with the highest probability during the afternoon hours and decreasing gradually after sunset. There no doubt that the area will be in the warm sector of an approaching cold front. A low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will have a cold front extending southwest into the OH Valley Friday. The cold front slows down and becomes stationary over southeast OH for the weekend.
however, satellite data depicts increasing moisture downstream, associated with the upper trough near the Bahamas. the high pressure system that has dominated the region during the past several days will weaken through tonight as an upper level trough approaches the state from the Bahamas. Model guidance show the aforementioned trough moving away from the area and into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, allowing for the high pressure to return across South Florida.
Persistent upper low off of the northern California coast hanging around one more day before it opens up on Thursday night and begins to lift its energy to the northeast. Transition ridging briefly builds in on Friday afternoon and storms should be confined to Northern Elko County.
The main impacts from Franklin will be along the lower Texas coast as swells from the storm move towards the coast today. Abundant cloud cover and increase rain chances should keep high temperatures generally down into the low to mid 90s area wide.
A mid to upper level trough of low pressure extending from the Bahamas southwest into the Florida Keys will continue to move to the west northwest through South Florida today into tonight. 2 inches by this afternoon over all of South Florida, as the mid to upper level trough moves through the area. High pressure will then build back into South Florida for Friday into this weekend.
Even with clouds in place, it will feel quite warm due to increased moisture as a warm front lifts north through the state.
The main feature throughout the short-term forecast will be the cold front to the west. Due to this, have reduced PoPs some with the highest PoPs over the Northern Plateau.
Expect a few snow showers across the high country tonight. A dry and windy day will develop Thursday, as another cold front approaches.
With sfc temps hovering close to freezing, cannot rule out some light freezing rain this evening over part of N-Central AR.
Will be interesting to see how temperatures respond today with a fresh coat of snow on the ground and the area still being under the influence of a cold dome of high pressure at the surface. High pressure centered over the state will gradually drift east today with low level flow remaining westerly. High pressure continues east overnight and flow becomes southerly ahead of the next system. Energy aloft will continue to dive south along the west coast, thus keeping a western conus trof pretty much in place. Pcpn type should favor snow, but patchy freezing drizzle also looks possible mainly before and after the main event has occurred.
For 18Z Aviation discussion below Very benign short-term portion of the forecast with arctic high pressure moving across the region and upper level flow transitions from zonal to slightly southwesterly with a much drier atmosphere. Surface analysis shows the center of high pressure over the Dakotas and this high pressure airmass is expected to shift easterly over southern Minnesota and into the Great Lakes through Thursday morning. While the high pressure area shifts off to the east tonight, a weak cold front will drop in from the northwest.
Latest rap and satellite imagery showed the forecast area under the influence of a strong midlevel ridge off the Atlantic Coast with southwest flow aloft. /17/ The NAM/SREF and even the GFS all pivot the cold front back northwest a bit on Thursday morning, and thus the convergence needed to support widespread precipitation.
before transitioning to light freezing drizzle from south to north by daybreak. While only a glaze to a few hundredths of freezing drizzle is anticipated through the morning hours. expect many areas to transition from light freezing drizzle to light snow for at least a few hours. before a transition back to light freezing drizzle is expected again during the late afternoon hours. despite there likely being several hours in between when freezing drizzle will temporarily come to an end. the expiration time of the advisory may eventually need to be extended a few hours if we do transition back to freezing drizzle late tomorrow afternoon.
327 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Skies remain cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from around 40 degrees to the lower 60s. The cold front has cleared all but the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area. The cold front should stall out tonight so rain should continue across the forecast area.
Better mixing will keep lows warmer tonight and no wind chill issues are anticipated.
Relative high amplitude upper air pattern with trough on the southwest US and upper level ridge in the eastern US.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was draped from Middle Tennessee up into eastern Kentucky.
Upper level pattern remains unchanged this afternoon, with a large trough across the western conus and ridge centered off the Atlantic coast. The front will stall across the northwest part of the forecast area this evening, unable to progress further eastward due to the ridge, and lift back to the north later tonight. The highest rain chances overnight will shift to the northwest, closer to the front. The stationary front over North MS and into West TN will slowly begin to lift northward as a warm front on Thursday.
Cold front continues to move southeast at 10 to 15 mph toward the coast, along a line from Magnolia Beach to Sinton to Alice to Hebbronville. Will continue to use a blend of NAM/ARW/SREF for the movement of the cold front through the forecast period. But another short wave trough will be moving northeast toward the region Thursday night with isentropic lift strengthening especially over the Brush Country.
A cold front extends across middle Tennessee through northeast Mississippi and into southeast Texas. Behind the front, temperatures are in the 40s and 50s while ahead of the front readings are in the low to mid 70s. /issued 321 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ Currently cold front and leading edge of heavier convection is snaking it's way from northwest Tennessee back into the northern Memphis metro and east central Arkansas. to the low 70s in the south and east.
Thursday night snow will be ongoing, with freezing drizzle possible from south central MN into west central WI.
A cold front will slowly drop southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee today. The front will stall and return north over central Indiana Thursday night and then another cold front will sweep through late in the weekend.
A brief break tonight and Thu morning for most locations from the snow, but another weak trough with some fair moisture is expected to arrive mid-day to the forecast area. The Thu storm is slightly warmer with its track coming more from the west than storms have lately, so temperatures for most will feature a warming trend. Eastern Magic Valley expected to warm to slightly above freezing.
124 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 Rain returns today with the passage of a cold front. Quick update to adjust hourly temperatures and bump up wind gusts along the cold front as it begins to cross late this morning and through the afternoon. Cold front will cross most of the area this morning, clearing the southeastern ridge by late this afternoon. The cold front will stall just to the south of the area tonight, allowing additional moisture to get pumped into the region in the southwest flow aloft. Models are still showing some disagreement in the temperature structure, and have continued mention of snow and freezing rain, which is dependent on whether the low-level cold air manages to drive far enough to the south.
This will need to be watched for the introduction of mixed precip if later model runs trend warmer.
220 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 After another mild night, a cold front crosses the Middle Ohio Valley today. A mild morning expected today, with southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through from west to east this afternoon and evening. Showers, heavy at times, will continue on Thursday as wave of low pressure moves northeast through the area along stalled frontal boundary.
The TTU WRF, the HRRR, and the NAM all show a similar setup tonight, with isentropic lift at least making for the possibility of some freezing drizzle developing later this evening, and then scattered showers with freezing rain develop towards sunrise and spreading northward across West Central Texas late tonight and into Thursday morning. Initially, temperatures will be below freezing and patchy freezing rain is possible. However, by mid morning temperatures should be rising to the freezing point and precipitation should turn to all rain.
335 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 The large upper level ridge centered off to our northeast will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida. This ridge is continuing to strengthen which will lead to similar weather conditions for tonight into Thursday. With the area of high pressure strengthening, the pressure gradient will continue to increase as well which will lead to breezy easterly flow for Thursday. A weak disturbance will rotate around this area of high pressure, which will provide an increase in low level moisture later tonight into Thursday. The eastern side will remain closer to normal with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s on Thursday.
A trough of low pressure will likely persist over the West Coast through the next seven days, supporting below normal temperatures with showers possible at times. Weak trough over the area this morning has spawned some showers over the coastal waters north of Pt Conception and off the OC coast.
A strong high pressure at the surface was centered over Nebraska early this morning, with a ridge extending northeast to over northern Minnesota. Aloft, there is a trough axis out over the Rockies with ridging east, and a strong upper level jet extending from Texas to the western Great Lakes. Temperatures to remain below normal today and tonight with the ridge overhead and fresh snow cover, with the airmass offsetting the late February sunshine. Tonight the ridge and clear skies is going to make for good radiational cooling conditions.
This should keep the area below freezing through the onset of precipitation later this evening. Overall, it looks like much of western MO and eastern KS will see another tenth to two tenths of an inch of freezing rain and northwestern MO and northeastern KS will see half an inch to as much as two inches of a combination of snow and sleet. The higher amounts, which will be more snow accumulation, will be farther to the northwest. But this transition may stall along the highway 36 corridor before temperatures start to cool again around sunset.
Another round of light snowfall is expected Thursday morning that will bring some light snow to the lower Treasure Valley. The next short wave trough, currently in BC, is of greater concern to our CWA as it moves in from the NNW late tonight and Thursday. That trough will bring light snow to most of our zones, and with the ground already cold, the snow will stick to the roads. Light snow will continue Thursday, mainly on the Idaho side, as the trough closes off a low in eastern Oregon. Winds will be light southeast today, increasing to light to moderate southeast tonight and Thursday morning, then shifting to northwest behind a cold front later Thursday.
Morning water vapor and H5 analysis place the eastern Pacific ridge along 150W, with a long wave trough downstream encompassing the western CONUS attm. Several short waves are either currently embedded within the western flank of this trough, or lined up to crest the ridge and become so moving forward through the forecast period. Due to the amplitude and orientation of the western CONUS trough, an unseasonably cold airmass will remain in place coincident. The attendant mid level trough axis will likely spark light snow showers over the central/southern mtn spines beginning this afternoon, but as a whole minimal forcing/anemic moisture will inhibit precip potential significantly over the next 24 hours.
Temperatures will remain mostly below normal as a series of dry cold fronts will continue to pass over the area. Trough moving through the area today causing nothing more than a few stratocu clouds and possibly a few sprinkles over the eastern San Gabriel Valley, otherwise a quiet weather day with temps a couple degrees warmer than yesterday on average. Overnight lows tonight expected to be a few degrees warmer overall but still some areas of frost and near freezing temps along the Central Coast tonight.
It will be much cooler today with falling temperatures early this morning and high temperatures ranging from the middle 30s northwest to middle 40s southeast. Latent heat release from rain and abundant water on the ground seems to be keeping surfaces from freezing so far as KMCY has been reporting just rain with 32F for a couple hours. Model soundings indicate brief period of sleet and freezing rain possible as cold wedge deepens near ground level while warm wedge is slow to erode aloft. Critical thermal differences exist among the models and for now have stayed close to the consensus blends which gives chances for mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain.
Quiet conditions will continue tonight, however temperatures to remain below freezing resulting in icy spots of lingering water and puddles on roadways. Protective high pressure ridges shifts northeast into southern Canada, away from the western Great Lakes on Thursday. Deeper moisture from the Gulf will be pushing northward on Thursday as southerly winds increase ahead of strengthening low pressure in the central Plains. The low level warm air advection and elevated warm front will advance northward across southern WI Thursday night as a weak mid- level wave grazes the area. Forecast soundings are not showing much ice crystal initiation falling into the low level cloud layer overnight as temperatures hover in the low 30s. Hence expecting a period of light freezing rain most areas with the potential for light snow and sleet in the northern and western CWA.
Strong mid level ridge will remain off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight with low level east southeast flow around the low level Atlantic ridge.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the western half of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front stretched from Victoria to Cotulla to Guerrero, Mexico. The upper pattern will change very little during this period and the cold front will make slow progress to the south. Cold air will continue to filter in this evening and temperatures will fall to freezing across our northern area after about 4 AM. With precipitation chances continuing and the cold air confined to the shallow boundary layer, there will be a chance for light freezing rain or a mix with rain. There will only be a few hours with temperatures below freezing and only low chances for any precipitation. There could be some patches of ice on bridges and overpasses from Burnet to Kerrville.
341 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday and crest over the area Thursday night.
Water vapor showing a deep upper trough over the West with broad SW flow over the eastern half of the country. That would be in the low 30s and lower teens for Glasgow.
1024 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Will be interesting to see how temperatures respond today with a fresh coat of snow on the ground and the area still being under the influence of a cold dome of high pressure at the surface. High pressure centered over the state will gradually drift east today with low level flow remaining westerly. High pressure continues east overnight and flow becomes southerly ahead of the next system. Energy aloft will continue to dive south along the west coast, thus keeping a western conus trof pretty much in place. Pcpn type should favor snow, but patchy freezing drizzle also looks possible mainly before and after the main event has occurred.
104 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Lowered the high temperatures a few degrees across the southern Red River Valley, as the recent snowfalls have inhibited warming across that region. Sunny skies will continue for the rest of the afternoon with highs in the single digits in the Devils Lake Basin, the low teens across the Red River Valley, and near 20 in the forested areas of Minnesota around Bemidji. Tonight temperatures should be a bit higher than the previous night and thus wind chills remain in the 10 to 20 below range, just warmer than the 25 below criteria for advisory conditions.
Models do suggest that some fog and drizzle (or freezing drizzle) will remain possible once again overnight and into the morning hours on Thursday. In addition, freezing rain will be possible this morning and into early this afternoon, at KSJT and KABI. The potential for freezing rain will return overnight, with precipitation chances continuing and temperatures falling below freezing.
Convection is along and ahead of an approaching cold front in the process of stalling. An approaching cold front will stall later today from northeast Louisiana to along the Texas coast.
222 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 The disturbance that brought the freezing rain to the Permian Basin this morning had moved east into central Texas. Low level moisture trapped in the lower layers in the inversion could generate some patchy freezing drizzle, patchy freezing fog tonight and Thursday morning but ice accumulations are not expected with little forcing.
1053 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 The cold front continues to gradually shift SE across N LA this morning, and extends from just SE of a CXO, to JAS, to N of a IER, to just E of RSN and BQP line as of 1630Z. Ahead of this front, MUCapes have increased to 500-1000 J/KG over the SE sections of Ncntrl LA, with 0-1km helicities having increased to 150-200 m2/s2, which has been enhanced by the backing of the low level winds ahead of the front allowing for some persistent mini supercells across the warm sector over Cntrl LA.
Models show the upper trough moving east and decreasing overnight as it nears Colorado from the west. In the lower levels southeasterly winds will dominate out on the eastern two-thirds of the plains tonight into Thursday. For temperatures, Thursday's highs are 2-4 C warmer than this afternoon's. The weather pattern for the upcoming can be characterized by upper level troughs moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast and the digging southeast into the Great Basin. Subsidence will move over the area Thursday night as an upper level trough lifts northeast of the Colorado.
230 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018 Not as cold tonight as the cold arctic high over the plains moves east and return flow allows for warmer air to spread over the area. This should bring some snow showers to the higher mtns overnight but only light accumulations expected. Flurries and snow showers should spread into mainly the southeast part of the Panhandle Thursday as the impulse ejects into the high plains. Cold again Thursday night as another push of colder air settles down the high plains but not as cold as the last surge.
1049 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018 Temperatures have warmed allowing wind chill readings to also be warmer and above the needed criteria. This first one will trigger light precip to start after 06z Thursday and taper off from SW to NE as the H5/H7 trough swings across the area. Up to a half inch of light snow is possible with even a trace of freezing rain based on latest models.
A cold front will inch its way across Middle Tennessee today, bringing low clouds, showers, and generally worsening conditions.
349 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 The cold front that was over our northwest counties early this morning moved slowly eastward throughout the day and had cleared most of Middle TN by 21Z. Expect showers to increase in coverage tonight through Thursday morning as the low approaches.
1227 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 High pressure will continue to dominate, producing mainly dry conditions and east wind averaging 15 KT. Forecast is on track with generally rain-free conditions and temperatures currently approaching 80 degrees topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /issued 345 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/ TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: South Florida weather will continue to be driven by the large upper level ridge now centered to our northeast off the coast of the Carolinas. The ridge is forecast to strengthen over the next 24 hours as it becomes more east west oriented across Florida. The eastern side of the region will hold a little closer to normal in the low to mid 80s.
For tonight, the high pressure system will drift northeast into the upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, the snow will likely change over light freezing rain.
Cold front was from near Bloomington to Choke Canyon Reservoir to just north of Cotulla with western portion of front surging southeast along the Rio Grande into northwest Webb County. Cold front continues to push southward into the area. Cold front was located from Victoria to south of Pleasanton to north of Uvalde then down to Eagle Pass. ARW/NAM shows this portion of the cold front will surge southeast through the Brush Country this afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service NORTH PLATTE NE 1042 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northern NE, with arctic airmass in place across the region. Clouds will increase tonight as southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of digging western US trough.
The northern trend to low pressure and associated pcpn continues with the 12z deterministic forecast cycle. The frontogenesis featured with the NAM would be associated with the potential banding to produce the higher amounts.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through tonight with low-level southerly flow continuing to transport abundant moisture into the region. Expect lows to bottom out in the lower 60s.
307 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 After another mild night, a cold front crosses the Middle Ohio Valley today. A cold front currently over central portions of the CWA will stall as the 1st of several low pressure waves ride up along with it.
Warm front now over lower Mississippi river valley will lift northward, with clouds lowering/pcpn starting by mid evening in our south, where a likely-categorical event is anticipated overnight. Pops taper to low chances north/west, as warm front becomes quasi stationary across west Tn. Time/height cross sections reveal a wedge of dry air aloft works down overtop the high lower trop moisture, suggesting potential for low clouds/drizzle later tonight and possibly lingering into tmrw. This sets the stage for warm front's lift north, and a warmer/more (elevated) unstable environ for Thu-Thur night.
A broad upper trof pattern will exist over most of the CONUS. A weak, stalled frontal boundary currently located from about central Mississippi to northern Alabama shifts southward a little today to across central Mississippi and central Alabama, then returns northward tonight as a warm front. Highs today will be in the mid 70s and lows tonight range from the lower 50s inland to the mid 50s closer to the coast.
Expect a slight chance of light showers through this afternoon for areas north of I 40 as a weak cold front moves through the 4 Corners.
Additionally, a warm front will lift through on Wednesday afternoon with winds veering southerly in its wake. Rain wl gradually overspread much of AR tngt into Wed as the atmosphere becomes saturated and the aforementioned front begins to lift back NWD as a warm front. Rain wl decrease later Wed/Wed night as upper support shifts EWD and the warm front lifts well N of AR.