Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Monday afternoon) A weak cold front is progressing southward toward the region early this morning, and will move will move through the area with little fanfare aside from a northerly to northeasterly wind shift. Temperatures will remain near or just above normal despite the front, with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s for most, with 80s focused toward the Rio Grande and portions of the Stockton Plateau. Monday will see a fairly significant warm up as ridging continues building west of the region, and rising heights as well as downsloping southwesterly winds during the afternoon allow temperatures to climb to around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid November.
/Tonight/ Our region remains under nwly flow aloft this evening, with high pressure firmly in control at the sfc. Light/vrbl to near-calm winds will become swly at 5-10 kts after sunrise, finally bcmg nwly towards the end of the pd with the passage of another cold front. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the Rockies to maintain northwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex through Sunday night supporting mostly clear skies and stable conditions. Overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the warmer temperatures across mainly deep east Texas. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
GOES IR imagery showed broken thin cirrus and scattered midlevel alto cumulus clouds approaching the northwest, ahead of weak cold front. As these clouds pass into the Midsouth overnight, the low level pressure gradient will tighten a bit, in advance of the approaching cold front. Most of the area should be as cold or slightly cooler than last night, especially in North Mississippi. Slightly higher dew points along with slightly cooler temperatures should result in more favorable conditions for frost across much of north Mississippi tonight, especially northeast Mississippi.
1059 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Mostly clear skies this evening and overnight will foster sufficient radiational cooling which will bring the low temperatures down to the lower 40s across the area. A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Midwest this evening and into tomorrow. An attendant surface cold front will move into the area overnight and into the morning. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s with mostly sunny skies behind the aforementioned cold front.
At the surface, a frontal boundary had moved through much of the forecast area with high pressure building south through the central high plains.
118 AM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Strong high pressure centered near the southern California coast will keep temperatures well above normal through Monday with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
Dewpoints are falling into the low 30s, with potential to remain near or fall into the upper 20s in the NE.
Latest obs from across the region are starting to cool off amidst good radiational cooling conditions, however around a degree or so warmer than previous fcst trends.
Warmer temperatures today but still several degrees below normal for this time of year. Amounts will be very light but with temperatures dropping below freezing a quick one half inch of snow could fall across higher elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee.
Warmer air will begin to advect eastward off the Rockies as this occurs, with H85 temps rising into the lower teens by tonight. Some concern for elevated fire weather conditions developing Monday afternoon, but as of now it appears the lowest humidity values (southwest Nebraska) will not coincide with the stronger westerly winds which will be across the Sandhills.
/issued 318 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure will nose east over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of a deep mid-level trough slowly moving off the Eastern Seaboard.
High pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some return flow has started up across the Delta keeping temps well above freezing while areas across North MS remain calm and around the freezing mark. An upper trough driving through the Great Lakes will push a dry cold front through the Mid-South today. Quick moving high pressure will transit the area overnight with cool temps in the 30s.
Gusty winds possible for the Little Rockies tonight, more A mix of rain and snow will lift northeast today with a warm front.
High pressure extending from Oklahoma to the NW Gulf of Mexico was the main feature controlling the area's weather. SW winds will become westerly in the early evening, then NW Sunday in the later evening and overnight, as high pressure west of the front builds over the region. Another chilly, frosty night is expected, with lows in the low/mid 30s (colder over NE Alabama and adjacent southern middle Tennessee) and warmer over NW Alabama and locations near large bodies of water. Under sunny skies, a tad cooler on Monday with highs in the mid/upper 50s.
959 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight. High pressure will build over the region through mid-week with temperatures gradually warming. Another cold front late in the week will bring cooler conditions for the weekend. Still think highs will end up a few degrees short of climo, but looking like it will be a bit warmer despite the chilly start. Weak dry high pressure then over the area today with slightly below normal temps under a sunny sky. highs only in the low/mid 60s. A cold front crosses the area tonight, and with 5-10 kt wind through the night not expecting any frost. Even cooler then for Monday due to CAA behind the front. High pressure maintains clear and cool weather Monday night.
A fast-moving short wave trough will dive southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. Periods of light rain or sprinkles will be possible over the Quad State this morning, culminating with a band of light rain near a cold front that will move through the entire region by 18Z.
At the surface, cold front pushed through KICT around midnight and will be south of the forecast area by 4 am. Precip associated with the upper wave and cold front is expected to stay just northeast of the forecast area early this morning. Lee troughing will be in place for both Mon and Tue setting up good low level warming conditions along with some decent downslope. Strong cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on Tue night into Wed morning and by 12z Wed is forecast to extend generally along or just south of the Kansas Turnpike. So by Wed afternoon the front will be south of the forecast area providing highs Wed around 25 degrees cooler than they will be on Tue. Cold front is still expected to come through dry Tue night into Wed.
A fast moving cold front moved south through central and southwest Kansas through the late evening hours and had moved into northwest Oklahoma and the far northern Texas Panhandle as of 2 AM CST. High pressure behind the front will move out of eastern Colorado into the OK/TX panhandle region this morning.
418 AM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Remnant AR moisture is riding down the backside of the Western States ridge toward the Central Rockies early this morning. This more stable pattern will bring an end to any flurry threat and set up some warmer conditions ahead of the next approaching trough due after the short term period.
Gusty winds continue to subside across our eastern zones early this morning in response to sfc ridging slowly nudging into the area. Surface ridging will remain in control of overall conditions across the forecast area today. Warmer temperatures across our western zones will be supportive of just rain showers. Can't completely rule out some pockets of light freezing rain in our east which could lead to some slick conditions going into the Monday morning commute. An upper ridge will gradually build into the region during the day helping to kick off a warming trend.
Mixed precipitation looks minimal in our area, though some sleet could occur on the tail end of the precipitation as warmer air aloft starts to move in.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure will nose east over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of a deep mid-level trough slowly moving off the Eastern Seaboard.
A cold front will move through the region this morning, resulting in a N/NE wind shift, with elevated/intermittently gusty winds possible from mid morning until early afternoon, particularly at MAF. (Today through Monday afternoon) A weak cold front is progressing southward toward the region early this morning, and will move will move through the area with little fanfare aside from a northerly to northeasterly wind shift. Temperatures will remain near or just above normal despite the front, with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s for most, with 80s focused toward the Rio Grande and portions of the Stockton Plateau. Monday will see a fairly significant warm up as ridging continues building west of the region, and rising heights as well as downsloping southwesterly winds during the afternoon allow temperatures to climb to around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid November.
Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 30s. A warm front will push east tonight and through the area Monday.
Cross-sections show moisture will drop to around 700 mb by aftn, so can't completely rule out a few light snow showers, over the higher mtn peaks. As far as winds go, there appear to be two windows for higher winds across portions of the higher terrain. We'll start the work week off with well above normal temperatures this week as a broad ridge axis sits over the Rockies on Monday. It should be mild across most of the high country as well, with highs in the 50s to 60s for the mountain valleys. Breezy conditions are also likely across most of the high country with a few gusts up to about 40 mph.
Warm dry weather will occur across the region today in response to a broad upper level ridge positioned over the west coast.
- Warmer temperatures on the way for the first half of the week.
Weak and dry backdoor cold front will result in a shift this morning, including KTCC, KLVS and later on at KROW.
Light WNW/NW flow with high pressure building into the Deep South and northern Gulf of Mexico will continue the feed of cooler and drier air into central FL, keeping high temperatures today in the lower 70s for most, except some mid 70s toward the Treasure Coast. Monday morning temps will fall to the coldest so far this season for many locations, reaching the mid 40s over the typically cooler spots of the interior, and generally low to mid 50s elsewhere. High pressure building across the Gulf of Mexico will lead to northwest winds around 10 knots over the local Atlantic waters today.
Overnight tonight will see this warm front push across the state from west to east. Precipitation type again looks to be tricky with the warming air aloft associated with the cold front. As precipitation winds down later in the night, the warming temperatures and lack of ice withing a deep moisture profile could provide for some wintry mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet generally across eastern areas. Overnight lows in the 20s and 30s will also play a big role in precipitation type tonight, with the freezing line generally along the Missouri river.
A long wave trough stretches from the Great Lakes to the Eastern Pacific, with ridging over the Pacific Northwest and phasing of the jets over the western North Atlantic. Since this high formed more-or-less in-situ, dewpoints drop linearly across Florida, with no real sharp demarcation along a frontal boundary.
549 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front will move through the Big Country this morning, along a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line by early this afternoon, and approach the I-10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be a cooler in the Big Country behind the front- generally in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s across most of the area.
937 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure is in place across the area from the NW, with generally northerly winds currently in place expected to go WNW this afternoon, and then light NE again after sunset. High pressure is in place across the coastal waters with northerly winds generally 10-15 knots.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will move through the Big Country this morning, along a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line by early this afternoon, and approach the I-10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be a cooler in the Big Country behind the front- generally in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s across most of the area.
Most locations that dropped to freezing were in eastern Mississippi, with one of the coldest spots being in the Columbus area. With plenty of sunshine this morning, temperatures are rising into the lower to mid 40s already. High pressure at the surface is centered across the Gulf Coast and the region remains under broad troughing aloft.
514 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 (Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to move across the area this morning causing winds towards the north.
While much of the Northern Rockies experiences near record high temperatures on Monday, an upper level low pressure system tracks southeast down the coast of British Columbia. This system will push a strong cold front across the Northern Rockies on Monday night.
245 AM PST Sun Nov 14 2021 Areas of night and morning dense fog will continue across the San Joaquin Valley during the next couple of days as high pressure strengthens overhead.
Strong high pressure centered near the southern California coast will keep temperatures well above normal through Monday with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
249 AM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region through Monday.
949 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights an amplified pattern across the CONUS this morning, with a potent longwave trough pivoting eastward from the Ohio Valley, and a formidable ridge building just downstream. As the low- levels mix due to diurnally-driven warming, expecting partly cloudy skies to emerge by late morning or early afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure over the Gulf Coast will slowly build eastward into the Southeast United States this afternoon through Monday. As the high pressure strengthens over the Southeast, breezes will freshen.
High pressure holding over the desert southwest will keep unseasonably warm and dry conditions with temperatures near daily records through Monday.
518 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 (Today and tonight) A Pacific cold front is currently moving into far northern OK and will pass through the forecast area by early afternoon.
WAA and associated height rises ongoing across the region this morning in response to a digging eastern Pac upper trough. An upper level disturbance and warm front moving into the area today will bring a chance of rain showers and morning snow showers to mainly far northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest SD.
927 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 No significant changes to the previous forecast seem necessary as high pressure will dominate the region today. Expect temperatures to recover into the low to mid 60s through the day across the region today; however, low temperatures will remain slightly warmer overnight, with lows expected in the low 40s across the region. Winds will remain from the northwest as our area is situated east of the high center. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s under clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s as high pressure weakens and moves further northward.
309 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 A fast-moving short wave trough will dive southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. Periods of light rain or sprinkles will be possible over the Quad State this morning, culminating with a band of light rain near a cold front that will move through the entire region by 18Z.
Otherwise most places will remain dry and much warmer than normal. Flow turns more zonal on Monday as the ridge axis is pushed east.
308 AM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Remnant AR moisture is riding down the backside of the Western States ridge toward the Central Rockies early this morning. This more stable pattern will bring an end to any flurry threat and set up some warmer conditions ahead of the next approaching trough due after the short term period.
Onshore flow today will allow for a steady moistening of the lower levels which will set the stage for a round of fog across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country tonight. Monday looks to be a bit warmer than today as the eastern periphery of a upper level ridge nudges into the region.
Warm front was pushing E through the forecast area, producing mainly rain, with snow in the NE Bighorns per webcams. High Wind Warning and Advisories were in good shape, with lee troughing over the area that remains fairly strong into Monday Night.
242 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 An upper-level trough is moving through the Quad State today. The arrival of cold air from the northwest will drive lows down to near or below freezing, with the coldest temperatures in the mid- 20s for the Evansville Tri-State. However, precipitation is expected to pass by north of the Quad State as the lifting trough shifts the upper-level storm track northward.
(Today and tonight) Winds become light northeast this evening, then variable, as a weak cold front dissipates along the I-10 corridor. This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 80s across much of the region.
/Tonight through Monday night/ A very weak and dry cold front will continue to push through the region this afternoon into the evening clouds. Despite the post-frontal airmass, temps will be slightly milder compared to last night, but should fall to near normal, with overnight lows ranging from the low 40s north of Interstate 30 to mid to upper 40s across the remainder of the region. Expect partly cloudy skies and above normal temps, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s north of the I-30 corridor to the mid and upper 70s across the remainder of the region.
This wave will push out of Middle TN by mid-afternoon and leave us with drier, but slightly cooler temperatures once again tonight.
212 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 A cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area as of 2PM.
Weak high pressure will then pass south of the area on Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region this evening. Lows will range from the mid 20 west to the lower 30s east. Highs will range from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 30s.
212 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 Short term (This Afternoon Through Monday): High pressure will continue to move eastward from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic waters.
Things begin to change late in the evening and overnight as a very strong cold front pushes across the region from the west- northwest.
A weak trough passed across the northern part of the main broad-scale upper ridge during the night and brought a few light rain showers to the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin. Monday will also be warm ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front.
This seems somewhat plausible given a drier airmass building into the area with increasing subsidence behind the departing trough. If clouds largely hold on as currently expected, temperatures in that area may only drop into the lower 20s.
At the surface, a cold front is currently pushing through the northern half of the forecast area. High pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some return flow has started up across the Delta keeping temps well above freezing while areas across North MS remain calm and around the freezing mark. An upper trough driving through the Great Lakes will push a dry cold front through the Mid-South today. Quick moving high pressure will transit the area overnight with cool temps in the 30s.
Highs Monday will warm into the 80s, with 70s expected across the higher terrain. Winds will stay elevated Monday night as surface lee troughing increases in advance of yet another short wave trough topping the western CONUS ridge, and as a result lows Monday night will be in the 40s to lower 50s. If the ECMWF and the CFS are to be believed, teleconnections support the persistent pattern of a west coast ridge/east coast trough through the end of the month and as such will modulate the weather over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico through early December, in line with an increasingly cold ENSO episode. While the occasional cold air mass will bring cooler than normal temperatures to the southern High Plains, on the whole temperatures should be at or above normal with precipitation chances remaining low (i.
This will lead to another couple cooler nights in the low to mid 40s across the region for tonight and Monday night.
High pressure will build in from the west tonight allowing winds to subside this evening and overnight.
Both RAP and HRRR soundings indicate dry air in the low levels, so precipitation will be hard to come by, but cannot rule out some reaching the ground. Models indicate surface temperatures steadying out or rising slightly with the warm air advection, which will bring some locations above freezing. So at this point anything that reaches the ground will be mainly in the form of rain or snow, though cannot rule out some freezing rain/sleet dependent on how much wet bulb affects come into play. On Monday an upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to nudge eastward. With continuing warm air advection, we will see quite an increase in temperatures, as highs get into the lower to mid 60s through the MO River corridor.
237 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. A warming trend will begin Monday due to upper level height rises, relatively strong low-mid level warm air advection, and as the wind shifts to a south-southwest direction after passage of a warm front as well as strengthens. Precipitation associated with the warm air advection and warm front should remain northeast of our forecast area on Monday, although could not rule out sprinkles from mid level cloudiness in west central and southwest IL late Monday morning and early Monday afternoon.
Today - Morning rain chances NE and gusty: A cold front over the NW CWA will continue to move through the area this morning.
Snow diminishing, warmer by mid week. As the upper trough lifts out Monday, warm air will begin to surge into the Great Lakes ahead of a ridge.
1244 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight. High pressure will build over the region through mid-week with temperatures gradually warming. Another cold front late in the week will bring cooler conditions for the weekend. Still think highs will end up a few degrees short of climo, but looking like it will be a bit warmer despite the chilly start. Weak dry high pressure then over the area today with slightly below normal temps under a sunny sky. highs only in the low/mid 60s. A cold front crosses the area tonight, and with 5-10 kt wind through the night not expecting any frost. Even cooler then for Monday due to CAA behind the front. High pressure maintains clear and cool weather Monday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): An H5 ridge and very dry air aloft continues to mosey in from the west.
Afternoon high temperatures look on track to range in the lower to mid 60s across the area.
120 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Scattered showers along the front, with -ra/-sn mix in the higher elevation of the Black Hills. Flat ridge builds across the Northern Plains Monday with robust low level warm advection.
Clear skies and a southwest wind are allowing for warmer temperatures today, with highs expected to top out this afternoon in the mid 70s to low 80s. A weak cold front is located just to the north of the area. Warmer, with highs ranging from the upper 70s across the Hill Country to low to mid 80s elsewhere.