Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
106 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Showers associated with a warm front continue to push into central Kentucky. Given the veering winds to the south through the day, and height rises as upper level ridge shifts east it will lead to warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the lower 60s. Morning surface analysis also revealed a warm front resides southwest of the region in the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
125 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Continental polar high pressure will continue to modify over the srn Middle Atlantic states through tonight. A warm front will retreat north across the region on Fri, as the high drifts east toward Bermuda. An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain relatively cool and dry conditions across central NC through tonight. After a chilly start to the day, with early morning temperatures in the upper 20s-lower 30s, temperatures this afternoon should recover into the low-mid 50s north and upper 50s south. will allow a warm front to retreat north through central NC during the day Fri. The increasing low level moisture values, and broad WAA regime, will favor a scattering of flat/fair weather cumulus trapped beneath a subsidence inversion that will have become established courtesy of mid-upper level ridging aloft.
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will drift off of the eastern seaboard tonight, allowing a warm front to lift into the region Friday. Patchy sleet and freezing rain is expected over central and northern areas from the early to late morning Friday before precipitation changes to all rain. separating milder air to the south from cooler air and showers north.
As low pressure continues to move through the Great Basin today, showers will taper off west to east.
1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 The warm front is now lifting north across central portions of the state early this afternoon.
1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Low pressure will develop over the Great Plains today as a strong high over the Great Lakes moves off the East Coast. The developing trof is producing increasing low level southwest flow, and this is brining moisture up into the area. Expect this activity will continue to develop, become more widespread, and refocus further north after sunrise where the low level jet and moisture convergence is strongest. There could be a few showers over the eastern Ozarks before 12Z as the low level jet increases to around 50kts. Carney Active period expected over the next 7 days with a pair of closed lows moving across the Mississippi Valley.
Tomorrow's cold front is still expected to push into the region by mid/late morning but lose steam as it does. Mid-level troughing may have enough of a push by late Friday night to nudge the front closer to the coast but then it loses all its upper level support and just stalls out.
Surface dewpoint readings were in the mid to upper 50s northeast of the boundary except Mississippi coast with values in the lower 60s off the sound. Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes Region and developing closed low over the Four Corners Region. This will tightened the moisture axis along the disturbance ahead of the closed low.
146 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Friday.
An interesting pattern has developed thanks to the strong anti- cyclonic (clockwise) low level flow circling around the ridge over the mid-Atlantic coastline. Southeasterly low level flow to our north is allowing warmer dew points to surge northward and the beginning of the development of a warm front in the Tennessee valley. As easterly flow has increased moisture across the eastern CONUS, the dewpoint gradient behind yesterday's cold front has weakened and with a not easily distinguished area of wind change, the frontal boundary to our south has become much less defined, if not for the convection near Lake Okeechobee and the cloud shield extending northeastward over the Atlantic, it could even be considered dissipated.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Greater amplified midlevel pattern continues, but remains progressive with waves and ridges quickly sweeping through. Strong H5 ridge currently overhead will get pushed eastward during the next 24 hours by the deepening trough moving into the Four Corners region. Models in agreement on the trough moving into Oklahoma on Friday, pushing a weak cold front into South Texas. Prefrontal trough will also push across most of the region during the afternoon, which is also a capping feature for the western counties.
251 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure overhead this afternoon will shift offshore tonight. A warm front will cross the region Friday.
Cold front dropping southward across southern Kentucky, and should enter our extreme northern areas over the next several hours. Otherwise, expect a cold front to slip down across the area tonight and early Friday, turning surface winds from westerly to northerly. At this point, expect ceilings to remain VFR with the passage of the cold front, with perhaps a band of broken cumulus near 4k ft.
upper ridging is expected to increase over the region. Actual high temperatures on Friday are expected to range from the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and reach the mid to upper 90s over most of the interior counties.
An upper trof will dig southward along the Atlantic coast on Friday. This system will push a cold front into north Alabama Friday afternoon. Low level convergence will be weak along the front due to northwest winds ahead of the front, but instability will be high in the afternoon due to very warm temperatures and dew points in the lower to middle 70s. Surface temperatures will likely run a little warmer on Friday than today due to warm air advection ahead of the front.
Friday: Guidance yesterday and early this morning continued to indicate the chance for activity Friday across the area with a relatively potent wave (for being under the ridge). It remains hot, but the ridge begins to flatten out through the weekend.
1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 High pressure will build east through the upcoming weekend with dry and increasingly warmer weather expected. The upper level low that has plagued the region for the past several days will continue to move east of Newfoundland tonight and Friday. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine along with even warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s across much of the region. Relatively quiet weather expected through the weekend with a nose of the massive 500mb ridge dominating the country nosing into New England.
512 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 Upper ridge axis is now across the upper midwest south deep southwesterly flow over the wrn CONUS. Surface analysis shows low pressure across the the northern plains. mainly depending on how much the low level cap weakens. Frontal boundary will stall across central SD Friday morning as small scale high pressure crosses eastern MT into western ND. Return flow will set up bringing warmer air back into the CWA through Fri afternoon.
637 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 225 PM CDT Fairly deep low pressure for mid-June of 1003 mb across eastern Ohio will continue departing eastward tonight with a weak high pressure ridge building in from the northwest.
/issued 348 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure from the Florida Straits to northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the low to mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Georgia to northeast Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to Minnesota. 18 With the upper level ridge axis expanding west and short wave well east of the forecast area, surface temperatures rise unabated by any significant coverage of rain and significant cloud cover tomorrow.
Water vapor loop shows the upper ridge axis just east of the Red River. Tonight, the upper ridge will shift slightly east, and the high-res models break out some convection in central ND by mid evening. The upper ridge will be pulling off to the east so with cooler mid level temps the cap will be not nearly as strong. Highs tomorrow will be fairly dependent on cloud cover, but for now kept readings in the low 80s in the south with slightly cooler temps in the upper 70s further north.
Otherwise, expect a cold front to slip down across the area tonight and early Friday, turning surface winds from westerly to northerly. At this point, expect ceilings to remain VFR with the passage of the cold front, with perhaps a band of broken cumulus near 4k ft.
with the upper low center now over SE Lower Michigan. and remaining low clouds continue to gradually dissipate from north to south as high pressure and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes region. with mainly clear skies expected thru the night as high pressure and dry air thru the column build into Northern Michigan. Overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 50s. High pressure continues to build into the region with the 500 mb ridge axis in the Upper Midwest, west of the Upper Great Lakes at 12z, expect things to be dry and warm.
816 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Ample moisture combined with a short wave dropping southeast across the peninsula and eastern Gulf waters within a mid level trough located across the southeastern states and north Florida helped to generate a good deal of showers and storms across the region during the afternoon compared to yesterday afternoon with many fast moving showers and isolated storms being observed. This upper support combined with an increasing westerly flow (between high pressure to the south and an approaching front to the north) helping to increase speed convergence along the coast should renew shower and storm development over the eastern Gulf waters after midnight with this convection then moving onshore along coast during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.
Once you see a few breaks in the clouds, temperatures warmed into the lower to middle 70s. Sunny and warm conditions are expected on Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s away from Lake Michigan. Humidity readings will still be on the low side with dewpoints in the 50s. Friday Night Through Thursday Sharp upper-level ridge will dominate the western Great Lakes for the upcoming weekend bringing dry and warm temperatures to the forecast area.
842 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure will build east through the upcoming weekend with dry and increasingly warmer weather expected. Update 615 pm - North winds continue to blow this evening as a very pesky upper low slowly retreats into the open Atlantic Ocean. The upper level low that has plagued the region for the past several days will continue to move east of Newfoundland tonight and Friday. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine along with even warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s across much of the region. Relatively quiet weather expected through the weekend with a nose of the massive 500mb ridge dominating the country nosing into New England.
As high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Friday, skies will clear.
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 For the 10 PM update made a few minor changes to the sky cover given current moisture wrapping around the Northeast periphery of the middle level ridge of high pressure. VFR conditions will dominate the period as upper ridge remains anchored over the South Central CONUS.
However, if the trend continues, dewpoints will slowly decrease over the next few days which should lower humidities and gradually reduce how high the heat indices climb each afternoon but with drier air actual temps could be a few degrees warmer so overall it may not feel like much of a change.
VFR conditions will dominate the period as upper ridge remains anchored over the South Central CONUS.
Area temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s with a few locations hitting and/or exceeding the 108 mark for HI.
836 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front analyzed over extreme southern Illinois early this evening will continue to slowy push south of our area overnight. High pressure to our north will slowly build south into the region during the next 24 hours bringing quiet weather to central Illinois. With the cold front moving through the region and the upper low slowly moving out of the Great Lakes to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft over much of the Midwest will keep fair weather across central IL for the next several days. As the ridge aloft amplifies and extends from the southwestern U.
935 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure builds down from Southeastern Canada through Friday, then remains over the area through the weekend.
1204 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Rain will continue to diminish overnight as low pressure traverses the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Showers, and a few thunderstorms will continue to focus south of the Pittsburgh, and diminish as the supporting upper low digs southeastward overnight. Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
Current satellite indicates the upper level low centered just off the northern California, southern Oregon coast will continue to spin up moisture and cool air will remain in place.
907 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 South to southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring warmer and drier air to the region. Tomorrow will be dry with partly cloudy skies as a weak cold front will move into the northern rockies. This push will bring a slight chance of storms to the higher terrain and northeast plains. Due to the surface cold front moving into the foothills from the ENE high temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s further east.
1050 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure near Pittsburgh will move southeast off the Carolina coast by morning. This will allow high pressure to build over the region for the weekend. The showers have ended in the Toledo area and the remaining showers will move south during the early morning hours as the upper trough moves southeast. Not much to write about in the short term as high pressure will dominate Friday through the weekend.
1037 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 Upper ridge axis is now across the upper midwest south deep southwesterly flow over the wrn CONUS. Surface analysis shows low pressure across the the northern plains. mainly depending on how much the low level cap weakens. Frontal boundary will stall across central SD Friday morning as small scale high pressure crosses eastern MT into western ND. Return flow will set up bringing warmer air back into the CWA through Fri afternoon.
the heat will continue this period ahead of a descending cold front and the aforementioned MCV.
Friday Night THROUGH Thursday Drying and general warming will continue as high pressure builds north and east from the Great Basin over western and central Wyoming. as the high pressure ridge builds in the stronger southwest flow will shift west and north of the area with a gradual decrease in winds.
1050 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front analyzed over extreme southern Illinois early this evening will continue to slowy push south of our area overnight. High pressure to our north will slowly build south into the region during the next 24 hours bringing quiet weather to central Illinois. With the cold front moving through the region and the upper low slowly moving out of the Great Lakes to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft over much of the Midwest will keep fair weather across central IL for the next several days. As the ridge aloft amplifies and extends from the southwestern U.
Will therefore drop the advisory for parts of northern Missouri for the rest of the afternoon, and keep it going further south where temperatures have been a bit warmer. Combined with temperatures in the lower/middle 90s, this should yield heat index values between 100 and 105, possibly a bit higher south of KC.
Upper level ridging continues to strengthen and expand over the central and southwestern U. The upper level ridge will cause rain chances to be low through the next 24 hours as warm temperatures aloft suppress convective development, and also result in continued hot temperatures across the forecast area. Will go with a general persistence forecast as far as lows tonight with lows from the lower to mid 70s for the most part with a few locations likely only dropping into the upper 70s.
Western Wisconsin will have cooler and dry air with clear skies and light winds, while western MN will have southerly return flow with warmer temperatures, more humidity, and instability. Forecast soundings off both the GFS and NAM show veering winds in the lowest km, so will need to watch for some weak tornadoes during initiation.
Due the increasing winds aloft with upper trough and plenty of mid-level dry air. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 69 89 / 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 65 86 / 50 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 66 87 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 79 60 85 / 50 30 20 0.
/issued 333 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) Upper level ridging continues to strengthen and expand over the central and southwestern U. The upper level ridge will cause rain chances to be low through the next 24 hours as warm temperatures aloft suppress convective development, and also result in continued hot temperatures across the forecast area. Will go with a general persistence forecast as far as lows tonight with lows from the lower to mid 70s for the most part with a few locations likely only dropping into the upper 70s.
907 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region overnight. Also, given mesoanalysis trends suggesting the instability ridge continues to ride into western Pennsylvania while model shear profiles weaken drastically as the upper low transitions southeastward, it would seem the movement of additional storm cells will become progressively slower through the evening. Fries Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
805 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure near Pittsburgh will move southeast off the Carolina coast by morning. This will allow high pressure to build over the region for the weekend. The showers are now all drifting south as the trough aloft slides across the area. Adjusted the hourly temperatures based on current trends but did not change the low temperature forecast. Not much to write about in the short term as high pressure will dominate Friday through the weekend.
The cold front is bisecting the CWA from northwest to southeast, essentially through the St.
935 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Local radars are detecting only a few showers on the nearshore gulf waters north of the Lower Keys and Florida Bay. Under mostly cloudy skies and southwest winds averaging around 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. With a deep layered anticyclone aligned across the island of Cuba lifting slowly northward, large scale subsidence will result in some drier air to filter into our area. Given a ridge over the outer straits and the archipelago of Cuba, mostly southwest winds of 10 knots or less will predominate on our entire marine district.
Mid-level jet along a cold front over Southeast Montana has generated some rain showers and general thunderstorms that will move into our area this evening.
/ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify just west of the region through the weekend and result in a continuation of the early season heat wave.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 69 89 / 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 65 86 / 50 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 66 87 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 79 60 85 / 50 30 20 0.
Cluster of strong thunderstorms has developed just south of a cold front pushing southward through the region. Mid-afternoon readings were in the low/mid 90s, and will likely top out in the mid 90s in some spots, making for one of the hottest days so far this year and in this recent hot stretch. For tonight into Friday night, high pressure builds into the region from the lower Great Lakes.
/Tonight/ Upper ridge continues to build across the central US, with boundary set up to the west where moisture push is located in return flow around the area of high pressure.
834 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Lower clouds and showers are rapidly exiting southward this evening as low pressure pulls southeast of the area. Canadian high pressure settling into the Western Great Lakes will keep a dry northeast flow over the area tonight, with dewpoints over northern Lower Michigan already falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds will break up as dry air and Canadian high pressure settle into the area, leaving clear skies for the overnight hours. High pressure will remain overhead tomorrow and Friday night, with high confidence in VFR conditions. The center of our upper level low has already reached Western Lake Erie and will continue to exit southeast late this afternoon, allowing for rush of drier air to come in from the northeast from eastern Canada, allowing skies to clear out tonight.
Over on the west coast of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this afternoon's showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota. This cap should remain strong through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level temperatures slightly. If storms can realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low level jet kicks in around sunset.
1016 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure system and cold front will pass through the region overnight. High pressure from southern Canada will then build across the area through the weekend.
612 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 With the cold front moving through the region and the upper low slowly moving out of the Great Lakes to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft over much of the Midwest will keep fair weather across central IL for the next several days. As the ridge aloft amplifies and extends from the southwestern U.
929 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front will push south of the region this evening. High pressure will build in from the northwest overnight and Friday and will gradually settle south of New England over the weekend.
1154 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front will push south of the region this evening. High pressure will build in from the northwest overnight and Friday and will gradually settle south of New England over the weekend.
Meanwhile a cold front is situated from about St. Given the high dewpoints and lack of convection so far decided to bump low temps up a couple of degrees. the heat will continue this period ahead of a descending cold front and the aforementioned MCV.
Quiet weather continues through the short term period as high pressure ridge remains anchored overhead.
VFR conditions will prevail across the Rio Grande valley tonight into Friday as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 220 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The next 36 hours remains persistent with recent trends as H5 ridge slowly begins to shift westward toward the Four Corners region. Tomorrow will see another hot and humid day, though one or two ticks lower than today as the center of the ridge will be moving away from the valley.
819 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure system and cold front will slide southeast across the region over the remainder of the day and tonight. High pressure from southern Canada will then build across the area through the weekend.