Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, ridging aloft will drive a stalled out frontal boundary to our south quickly northward today. Ridging aloft will help cap much of any activity across our area. At present thinking is that ridging will keep most of the activity across our area limited to the far north, generally along and north of I-64 and west of I-75. Strong shear in the lowest 1-3 km of the column allow for the potential of a few tornadoes as well. In general there seems to be a disconnect in the strength of ridging developing across the region and the amount of convection being offered up by the CAMs.
In addition, high pressure located offshore over the Pacific will aid in breezy northerly winds along the coast. The ridge is producing generally clear skies over interior locations, with valley temperatures subsequently flirting with frost advisory criteria. An enhanced pressure gradient will also be present on the east side of the high, resulting in breezy northerly winds gusting to 30 mph along the coast.
May see a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in that area, although latest runs of the high-resolution models suggest the line of storms may form a little closer to the Ohio River early this evening. The seeds of a strong upper low are starting to take shape over Colorado early this morning, and will strengthen over the 4-corners region tonight.
442 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will build into the region this morning providing partly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Surface cold front was moving through the western Mohawk Valley and western Catskills with a few primarily light showers along this feature. High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build eastward into the region this morning and provide partly sunny skies along with mild temperatures. Highs temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s in the central New York and the middle to upper 70s in northeast Pennsylvania. The highest chance for showers will be across northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier. A deep upper level trof in the mid west along with a strong southeast upper level ridge will keep a southwest upper level flow pattern across the region through the weekend.
506 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will build into the region this morning providing partly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Surface cold front was moving through the western Mohawk Valley and western Catskills with a few primarily light showers along this feature. High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build eastward into the region this morning and provide partly sunny skies along with mild temperatures. Highs temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s in the central New York and the middle to upper 70s in northeast Pennsylvania. The highest chance for showers will be across northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier. A deep upper level trof in the mid west along with a strong southeast upper level ridge will keep a southwest upper level flow pattern across the region through the weekend.
/issued 851 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017/ 00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows the beginning stages of upper ridge building over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and FL peninsula have commenced. This upper ridge will be the dominant player in our weather through the upcoming weekend, as it protects the forecast area from any real inclement weather attempting to move eastward from upstream. A renegade similar type storm is possible again late Friday, however, it will be fighting even greater thermodynamic hostility aloft as the upper ridge continues to strengthen. Even the beaches will get pretty toasty by early afternoon, and then settle back down through the 80s as the sea-breeze kicks in and turns winds off the relatively cooler shelf waters.
The low pressure system responsible for the past two days of wintry precipitation is finally, slowly making its exit over eastern Lake Superior today into central Ontario tonight towards Hudson Bay on Friday. As the low matures and lifts north, the upper Midwest will be within the colder northwest flow resulting in occasional snow showers impacting parts of northeast Minnesota through Friday, though little additional snowfall accumulation is expected. Some sunshine Friday as the low exits with temperatures a bit warmer than today, breaking the freezing mark for most locations in the low to mid 40s outside of the Minnesota Arrowhead region. Behind the exiting system, a low amplitude ridge will build from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
A cold front will move into the area tonight, but will likely not affect any terminals until after 29/06Z.
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Upper level low was over NW Ontario early this morning. This wave will move east this morning as well as the upper low. High pressure will continue to build into central ND today and move over the Red River valley tonight. Tonight will see lows a bit below freezing with light winds and clear skies.
355 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Accompanying the precipitation, the most pronounced aviation hazard will be the lower cigs between 3. /Issued 423 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/ A cold front will push across the Panhandles tonight before stalling south of the forecast area. The frontal boundary is then forecast to lift northward Friday and Friday night as a warm front before a secondary surge of even much colder air drives the front south again. Vigorous closed upper low will develop over the Great Basin region Friday and then digs south and east near the Four Corners region by late Friday and then into central and southeast New Mexico Friday night and Saturday.
Upper ridge building in Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies. The ridge remains over the region Saturday with another partly to mostly sunny day. Mid and high level clouds will be increasing later in the day as a weak warm front approaches.
624 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Warm front lifts through late today into tonight.
241 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will build off the Atlantic coast and begin a trend for warmer and more humid conditions, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, through the weekend.
339 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A weak surface cold front was pushing east across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley early today. An anomalously strong mid and upper level subtropical ridge will build westward from the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend. We will be on the warm and moist western periphery of the ridge most of the weekend with a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms anticipated.
Dry northwest flow over the area will become northerly during the day as the area is located between an upper low dropping southward over the Rocky Mountains into the 4 Corners area.
158 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will briefly build in tonight. High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the 40s. High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of guidance.
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A break in the activity today under high pressure. Dry weather returns today under high pressure. Models are having a difficult time determining the position and timing of a warm front on Saturday and also the extent and strength of Eastern CONUS ridge. Zonal flow this evening will be replace by the building eastern ridge overnight. One thing the models do somewhat agree on, most of the precipitation tonight and Saturday will be over the northern half of the region, north of the surface warm front.
A high pressure over the Atlantic will stretch across northern Florida today and lift north and shift westward. As a consequence of this repositioned of the high and an increase of the pressure gradient between the high and the Keys, winds will be from the east to southeast and increase tonight. Another thing that we can adjudge to the high, is the lack of chances of precipitation and summer-like conditions for this weekend. Dew points today will remain in the upper 70s and coming down to the lower 70s on Saturday.
426 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Upper level analysis has weak cutoff low remaining over eastern Wyoming, with strong jet rounding the base of the main trof into the central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 30s, with some upper 20s over the higher Black Hills. Storm system will continue to spin over eastern WY today, then track southeast into northeast CO late this afternoon before getting swallowed up by stronger trof and low developing across the Great Basin and Four Corners area. With the sharp gradient in precip, temperatures will range widely from the mid 30s across parts of Northeast Wyoming, to the lower 50s across northwest South Dakota.
High pressure will support dry weather Today and Saturday with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
During the afternoon, there is a secondary upper level low that develops in the four corners region. The upper level low in the four corners region will continue to move into the southern plains Friday night and Saturday. With the low to the south, colder air will be pulled into the forecast area and there is a chance for some snow to mix with the rain or even change over to all snow.
345 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Warm front lifts through late today into tonight.
Sunshine will favor warmer temperatures, but the north flow and lingering cold air advection are less favorable.
125 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A break in the activity today under high pressure. Dry weather returns today under high pressure. Any cooler air behind the front will quickly eject to the north as strong warm air advection takes over. Models are having a difficult time determining the position and timing of a warm front on Saturday and also the extent and strength of Eastern CONUS ridge. Zonal flow this evening will be replace by the building eastern ridge overnight. One thing the models do somewhat agree on, most of the precipitation tonight and Saturday will be over the northern half of the region, north of the surface warm front.
Chance of snow showers again in the central Idaho Mountains and along the Idaho/Nevada border today as an upper low takes shape in Wyoming and moves south toward the Four Corners area. Mostly sunny, warmer, and less windy Saturday as Pacific upper ridge moves inland.
Trended toward cooler guidance for this region overnight. Starting at 00Z Saturday, the 500mb low will be over the 4-corners area, with an elongated area of low pressure across western TX.
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will build into the region this morning providing partly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Surface cold front was moving through the western Mohawk Valley and western Catskills with a few primarily light showers along this feature. High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build eastward into the region this morning and provide partly sunny skies along with mild temperatures. Highs temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s in the central New York and the middle to upper 70s in northeast Pennsylvania. The highest chance for showers will be across northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier. A deep upper level trof in the mid west along with a strong southeast upper level ridge will keep a southwest upper level flow pattern across the region through the weekend.
356 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 (Today and Tonight) Upper level trough over the Rockies will continue to drop south and deepen, eventually closing off over Northern New Mexico by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a weak cold front across the Panhandle this morning will drop south into the Big Country. GFS the most aggressive with temperatures, with a slightly stronger downslope west and southwest wind leading to warmer highs. (Saturday through Saturday Night) The combination of a strong upper level low pressure system and a cold front/dryline moving across the Southern Plains will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
The feature responsible for all this activity is an upper low, currently located to our west. This low will generally meander to out west through the end of the week, and bring us all this rain and snow.
A cold front stretching from western Saskatchewan into eastern Montana will gradually move east today. Looking broader, the latest water vapor imagery loop shows a large elongated positive tilted upper trough stretching from central Manitoba, southwest to the tip of the Oregon/California coastline. Several circulations were embedded within/around this large trough. Through Friday, an additional jet streak and cold pocket on the western side of the trough will help form a closed Low in southern Idaho.
WET WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER High pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico and extend east into the Florida Peninsula today. The high will then weaken over the gulf of Mexico this weekend, as a trough of low pressure moves east through the southeastern United States.
Morning satellite and radar imagery continue to show a line of showers and isolated storms developing along a lingering weak frontal trough extending from near Stuart northeastward into the Atlantic. This will allow highs to reach the lower 90s over the north interior (Orlando/Lake county) with upper 80s along the coast. Greatest chance for tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be from KFPR-KSUA through early afternoon with onshore moving showers/isolated storms along weak frontal trough.
737 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Aviation A weakening cold front will drop down into the region this morning and dissipate by the afternoon.
1113 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and the weekend, as high pressure will remain in place across the region.
A cool, upper level trough will dominate the western portion of the country through the workweek maintaining cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions.
1103 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA. Warm high pressure will yield a continuation of mostly clear skies and mild temperatures. A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass.
Cool and unsettled conditions will continue under the influence of the trough.
Warm and humid conditions will continue across the forecast area today as high pressure at the surface strengthens a bit from the northeast into the region. Aloft, the forecast area will be fixed between high pressure wedging southwest from the Mid- Mississippi River Valley through the Mid-South region, and increased troughing from the East Coast, southwest into the Deep South. With dew points remaining in the low and middle 70s, afternoon heat indices will hover around the century mark across much of the area.
Thus, did start the chances for rain a bit earlier than previously forecast, but held back on increasing rain chances farther west for now since the upper trough which is helping to trigger the convection this morning could be east of the western portions of the area and slightly curtail the lift for aforementioned areas. For now, did keep the high temperatures as-is, as I am expecting the lower cloud cover this morning to taper off and enough daytime heating to ensue so any lower temperatures would be a degree or two at best anyway.
Aloft, an upper level ridge is expanding across the Mississippi valley, with some troughiness lingering across the Eastern Seaboard. The models are in good agreement with the ridge gradually strengthening across the Ohio Valley through the short term, bringing above normal temperatures and drier weather. Some short wave energy passing south on the leeward side of the ridge axis will allow for a threat of mainly isolated convection across our area today. Convection will die off quickly into this evening, with dry weather to follow as the ridge builds in stronger through Friday. High temperatures will average in the mid 80s each day, with Friday a degree or so warmer than today. Lows tonight will average in the low to mid 60s, with areas of dense valley fog setting up.
The Pacific Northwest remains under an elongated upper level trough that stretches all the way from Hudson Bay to the central California coast. Cold but drier air is streaming into the area in a northeasterly flow from Canada and this will keep temperatures cool again today with upper 50s to mid 60s in the lower elevations and in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. Temperatures are still warm enough that most of the snow will melt except in the higher mountains.
Cold front will bring heavier rain and snow to White Pine this afternoon. Snow will bring hazardous travel conditions to the to the passes along I-80 and US-50, and possibly the highest passes on US-6. The surface cold front appears to have passed through the bulk of the CWA early this morning. The band of clouds is showing signs of pivoting that would indicate a baroclinic leaf-like structure developing that may be signaling a slowing of the over upper level trough of low pressure. This means the main impact will be to the higher passes this morning with accumulations down to as low as 6000 feet at times. The heaviest snows will be in the higher elevations.
1024 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. This feature coupled with steep low-level lapse rates associated with strong insolation will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Triangle within the upper trough Dpva axis. H8 temps and low-level thickness are forecast to drop off ever so slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range.
1029 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build overhead through the weekend. High pressure ridge extends along the Appalachians with its influence over the eastern U. A weak trough of low pressure which brought showers and thunderstorms to western Virginia yesterday is moving south.
The building upper level ridge overhead will strengthen a mid level cap, thereby greatly limiting the potential for any afternoon convective development. Despite the high level clouds, the southeasterly wind component off Lake Erie has allowed some shallow fog development.
1214 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars) extending down the spine of the Appalachian mountains. a narrow ridge extends from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley, while a trough extends southwestward from Tropical Storm Jose into the coastal Carolina region. A weak coastal trough was generating a few showers over the near shore waters adjacent to Fernandina Beach, with a cumulus field building over the coastal counties as a light onshore wind regime is in the process of developing.
Surface wise, our area on the southern periphery of a large continental ridge aligned over the eastern United States. Thereafter, some cells will likely form over the south Florida peninsula and may push into the Upper and perhaps the Lower Keys this evening and tonight.
TRANSISTION PERIOD WITH WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA GIVING WAY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY INCREASING ACROSS S GA INTO EXTREME N FL BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE SE U. LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DIG ACROSS THE SE U. AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SE TOWARDS THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ACROSS SE GA.
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE L80S.
338 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015 (Today and tonight) A strong synoptic ridge remains in place over the Great Basin, with northwest flow aloft from the northeast Rockies, southeast through the southern Plains. An extension of the upper-level ridge remains in place across central TX, surrounded by several interesting weather systems. Ahead of this cold front, compressional heating will help warm temperatures a few degrees above yesterday's highs. The aforementioned cold front is expected to move into the northern Big Country around midnight, crossing I-20 sometime near or just before sunrise. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along this cold front, with the greatest rain chances remaining over the Big Country. Johnson (Saturday through Friday) Cold front will continue its push southward across the forecast area through the day Saturday.
220 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MADE TO THE HIGHER POPS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE 88D VADS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
MEAN RH VALUES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED.
1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. WITH A BASICALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000+ J/KG MLCAPE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE DESPITE THE BROAD /BUT NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG/ AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
218 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH AMPLIFIES TODAY. FORECAST MODELS INITIALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE HIGH END AT 00Z YESTERDAY EVENING SO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEFINITELY BE QUITE DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN JUANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
436 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
BUT THAT ACTIVITY WILL FADE TOWARD AS THE MORNING CONTINUES AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. WITH A CYCLONIC NATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AND THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR OUR REGION. WE'LL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SW UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A E-NE FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING THE LLJ AND PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN TO MIDDLE TN. TOMORROW MORNING STARTS WITH THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AS ENERGY WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE ON FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER 80'S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR MOST PLACES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW MOVING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OPEN TO SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW. KSUN AND KSNT BARELY GET TO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST NAM RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVER THE RGV AS A BROAD 500 MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS LOCATED OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TOMORROW ALONG WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER.