Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
540 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Little change in today's or tonight's forecast as Minnesota and western Wisconsin will remain between an area of high pressure that was north of the Canadian border, and a storm system in the Ohio Valley. The strongest winds will occur closer to the area of low pressure in southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
437 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level ridge axis over eastern Colorado early this morning will shift slowly eastward through tonight. Not sure if anything will even make it into the foothills given the high amplitude ridge and southerly flow, while the plains should stay dry with a drier and slightly more stable airmass in place.
Upper ridge currently over Eastern Montana will move into Dakotas today. This will turn flow aloft to the southwest for the remainder of the week as upper trough in the Eastern Pacific digs towards the west coast.
1241 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The drier and cooler air will continue to move south into the state behind the cold front that moved through on Wed. (ISSUED 557 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 ) A new cold front is pushing south through the state early this Wed evening. Tonight through Friday Latest surface analysis places a cold front across the central part of Arkansas with the boundary slowly moving to the south. In its wake, upper level high pressure will build into the nations mid section. Meanwhile, a strong upper low pressure system will cut off from the prevailing flow over the Ohio valley and basically remain quasi-stationary through the remainder of the period.
329 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The next few days the region will be sandwiched between a low pressure system over Ohio and a west coast trough. With the region under upper level ridging, we should see dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures. Breezy southerly winds will continue on Friday, along with warmer temperatures.
327 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure ridge will remain across the region through the end of the week.
The Midwest Upper low will slide slowly southeast toward the Southern Appalachian region with little impact on the Great Valley.
334 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 A closed low pressure system remained located over/near the Ohio River Valley early this morning. while a ridge of high pressure resided over the western third of the CONUS. light northerly winds transporting cooler and drier air along with mostly clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The synoptic features and conditions mentioned above are expected to remain nearly unchanged over the next couple of days as the closed low continues to hold near the Ohio River Valley.
A drier airmass, driven by surface ridging surging southward through the Plains, arrives in the Lower RGV this evening, effectively ending rain chances. Comfortable afternoon dewpoint temperatures ranging from the lower 50's NW to the mid-60's SE will also be place.
212 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will slowly push through the forecast area today, stalling near the eastern FA. Behind these features, drier and cooler air will filter into the region. Fair weather expected over the weekend, with weak high pressure and dry air over the region. Some convection continuing over our E/NE forecast area (FA) along a prefrontal trough. Upper level low over the Ohio Valley. The main front is expected to merge with the prefrontal trough and shift towards the E FA today, where a few showers and thunderstorms expected. Closed upper level low will remain nearly stationary over the Ohio valley.
634 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will slowly push through the forecast area today, stalling near the eastern FA. Behind these features, drier and cooler air will filter into the region. Fair weather expected over the weekend, with weak high pressure and dry air over the region. Some convection continuing over our E/NE forecast area (FA) along a prefrontal trough. Upper level low over the Ohio Valley. The main front is expected to merge with the prefrontal trough and shift towards the E FA today, where a few showers and thunderstorms expected. Closed upper level low will remain nearly stationary over the Ohio valley.
Mid level flow has backed to the southwest with an amplified ridge shifting into the central plains. High temperatures today should be warmer than yesterday, but increasing clouds could play a role in keeping readings a touch cooler than forecast.
435 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Models in good agreement in dropping upper low into western Kentucky today and stalling it there through tonight. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two across the south given the high levels of deep shear, and even some small hail is possible. Still concerned about potential QPF levels along and just west of the eastern ridges as the Atlantic moisture tap continues through tonight. Final issue to consider is potential wind gust issues tonight along western slopes of the ridges. With potential stable layer above ridgetops and winds oriented favorably with ridgelines, there is the potential for strong downsloping winds.
323 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Little change in today's or tonight's forecast as Minnesota and western Wisconsin will remain between an area of high pressure that was north of the Canadian border, and a storm system in the Ohio Valley. The strongest winds will occur closer to the area of low pressure in southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
350 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 An upper level high pressure ridge will maintain across the southern high plains today and tonight. Plenteous high clouds just west of the upper ridge axis will continue to spill over at times and may lead to opaque periods especially across western counties. Today and tonight will be cooler, courtesy of a weak cold front that was now edging slowly into the southwestern south plains.
313 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Calm and mild conditions have settled in across Southeast Texas early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
332 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region from the north through Friday. Low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east through the weekend.
445 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016 The forecast area was sandwiched between a high pressure ridge over the High Plains and a trough of low pressure off the West Coast.
329 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 It still appears that the closed upper low sinking south through central IN will be the main influence over the short term. While scattered showers will be possible again today over our n/e counties, esp in portions of sw IN, the highest pops will come on Friday as the low retrogrades back toward the forecast area.
1216 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 A well amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing areas of low pressure spinning over the Midwest region and over southern CA. In between, ridging extends north from high pressure near the TX/Mexico border into central Canada, with north-northwesterly flow over the Central Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary sits south of the CWA, while high pressure sits over the Northern Plains.
Tomorrow, will begin to see deeper moisture move nwd as the monsoon picks up some steam thanks to subtropical convection and the short wave trough moving into the inter-mtn region.
244 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 A typical August afternoon is underway today across the region, with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Tonight is looking rather similar to last night/this morning, with widely scattered elevated convection expected by morning as the low level jet increase over the region. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with a bit of patchy ground fog possible by morning. Wednesday looks quite similar to today, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures around the area this morning were mild with readings in the low to mid 70s.
Expansive area of high pressure centered just to our east continues to dominate our weather this afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies and another day of above normal temperatures. Some changes taking shape to our west, with deep layer moisture advection kicking in across the Upper Mississippi Valley along and ahead of slow moving cold front. Very low probability for any showers definitely supports keeping areas south of the big bridge dry overnight.
A cold front will then bring better chances for rain during the weekend, as well as bringing cooler air to the area. Some models hinting at some convection developing overnight across the area with the inverted trough. With the humid airmass a model blend of lows in the lower 70s looks good.
28 inch PW value off the 12Z KJAN sounding, combines with temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s and the influence of an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf. As the low pressure system tracks west across the northern Gulf through the week, rain will increase across the area.
In the upper levels, a trough is located over eastern Texas, while the mid-level subtropical ridge axis continues over northern Mexico into far west Texas.
At the surface, the pattern is weak, with the CWA sitting between high pressure over the Great Lakes/northeastern CONUS and low pressure over the Rockies.
A trough of low pressure will develop tonight and Wednesday across eastern Colorado as an upper level trough slowly approaches the Central Rockies. Embedded in the southwest flow just east of this approaching upper level trough will be several embedded upper level disturbances. As this first upper level disturbance crosses into eastern Colorado late day there will be a very slight chance for thunderstorms along the developing surface lee trough.
Below the ridge. 850mb thermal/moisture axis extended across the High Plains and will continue to slide east through the week. Main forecast concern this morning is fog/clouds with focus turning to warmer temps and heat indices by mid week.
Upper trough across the Pacific NW is the primary weather influence in the short term period. Meso scale models suggest we are capped until late afternoon, and have also trended the highest risk of severe weather a little further north than earlier, but I still think we could see some decent cell development in our east, and possibly even over the central zones around Hardin and Billings if moisture advection responds soon. Latest short range ensemble guidance suggests a few rounds of convection firing as series of weak impluses eject through our area ahead of the main upper trough. So adjusted PoPs closer to the higher terrain. We should be in a cooler air mass for Wednesday.
Cloud layers have helped keep temperatures a bit cooler than expected to this point, and energy levels as a result were also suppressed. Thunder was developing just to the south where temperatures have been able to climb into the lower to middle 90s. Generally cooler and wetter conditions can be expected which will be a welcome change. Upper troughing in the west will shunt the upper ridge to the east by late this week which will begin the change.
A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity tonight, with storms expected to develop west of the CWA by early evening, then spread eastward through the overnight hours.
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level trough axis across the southeast U. North to northwest flow aloft is occurring over the forecast area due to flow around the upper level trough to the east. However, with convective temperatures in the low 90s being met or exceeded, late in the day showers and thunderstorms are developing. Consensus of guidance shows upper level subtropical ridge off the southeast U. This will push the upper level trough axis and deep tropical moisture also to the west, with the trough axis moving from the Gulf South to the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday.
144 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Early afternoon forecast update will focus on timing/placement for initiation of convection this evening as HIRES models indicate cluster of convection developing mid-afternoon over southeast MT and moving east along developing warm frontal boundary, entering southwest zones in the evening. Otherwise current boundary will push through most of the fa with high pressure nosing in from the north. As upper low begins to cross the northern rockies tonight low pressure becomes better organized over the northern high plains. Associated E-W oriented warm frontal boundary through central SD during the evening lifts northward to the SD/ND border region by morning.
Temperatures early this morning were mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Area of low pressure will continue to drift slowly to the West this period. Moisture will pivot around this low and provide scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and evening. Wednesday will be a transition day, as the low is far enough West to have less direct impact on area weather but still provide enhanced moisture, while high pressure builds to the Northeast. Highs on Wednesday, will range from the upper 80s West to the lower 90s East.
Above normal temperatures are expected across West Central Texas on Wednesday as an upper level ridge remains centered across Texas.
Heavy rain will be the main concern in the high moisture, low shear environment. Surface analysis shows high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Warm cloud processes will also come into play with cells exhibiting low tops but high freezing levels.
A warm front continues to push northward toward the ND/SD border. As the low level jet kicks in and edges the front northward thunderstorm activity is expected to develop and expand over the watch area. Latest water vapor imagery details a slow moving closed upper low across western Idaho. A warm front was draped across northern South Dakota and is forecast to remain. The highest threat for severe weather will be along and north of the warm front which includes southwest and south central including the James River Valley. Believe the main trend of the highest threat for severe weather remains in the southwest through portions of south central. The 700mb trough will slide into southwest and south central ND this evening, with increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms.
Surface analysis showing a weak cold front laying roughly from Rapid City to Casper to Salt Lake City this morning. Expanded the Red Flag Warning today based on the stronger winds and warmer temperatures. Upper low tracks into western Montana Wednesday and we should see an increase in winds.
High pressure building off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring warmer temperatures and more typical late day and evening showers and thunderstorms possible through the remainder of the week. Overnight low temps will be in the low/mid 70s. Conditions become more summer-like Wed/Thu with Bermuda sfc hi pres and building western Atlantic ridging aloft. Lee trof along with lcl seabreeze bndrys should be the trigger for sct diurnal convection.
Upper level high pressure seems slightly weaker with a little better boundary layer moisture.
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 An upper level low, to the northwest, will continue to bring unsettled weather to the region. Weak low pressure over the southeastern United States will continue to slowly retrograde to the west into the Mississippi Valley through tonight.
High pressure building over the Pacific Northwest will bring a warming trend and drier weather Wednesday through the rest of the week.
High pressure builds in over northern and central Nevada later this week resulting in warm and dry conditions though the weekend. Trough energy moves through the Great Basin today bringing westerly winds to most of Northern Nevada and gusty southwesterly winds to much of central Nevada. The tail end of the exiting trough drags over much of northern and portions of central Nevada on Wednesday.
High Southern Wisconsin will remain under the western periphery of high pressure through Wednesday. Will be cooler near the lake once the winds shift onshore.
There are a couple streamer showers drifting northward into the lower valley currently, and may briefly bring a very TEMPO MVFR cig to KBRO in the next couple hours. /issued 414 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The dominant H5 ridge remains in place through the next 36 hours, continuing the dead of summer heat.
Expect highs mainly in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms may linger tonight in the moist southerly flow but should diminish with the loss of heating and h5 ridging building into the area from the east. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus late tonight. Surface and upper level ridge off the North Carolina coast extending west into east South Carolina. Upper level low over the gulf coast and Florida retrograding to the west.
601 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 An area of low pressure near the FL panhandle will drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger tonight in the moist southerly flow but coverage should diminish with the loss of heating and h5 ridging building into the area from the east. Clouds and boundary layer mixing should hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface and upper level ridge off the North Carolina coast extending west into east South Carolina. Upper level low over the gulf coast and Florida retrograding to the west.
Latest water vapor imagery details a slow moving closed upper low across western Idaho. A warm front was draped across northern South Dakota and is forecast to remain. The highest threat for severe weather will be along and north of the warm front which includes southwest and south central including the James River Valley. Believe the main trend of the highest threat for severe weather remains in the southwest through portions of south central. The 700mb trough will slide into southwest and south central ND this evening, with increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms.
Have a slight chance for thunderstorms in far north central during the evening, then dry overnight as a cold front approaches the area, but the ECMWF kept the entire area dry overnight and the Canadian was dry after 06Z Wednesday. A weaker surface gradient tonight, combined with the higher dew points, will result in areas of fog tonight. Temperatures should warm up today and it will be a little warmer on Wednesday.
Conditions will improve after sunset but isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain will be possible overnight.
A weak cold front will move south into northern and eastern wyoming tonight and Wednesday with a wind shift to the northeast. Low level moisture will increase and temperatures will become cooler behind the cold front.
1038 AM PDT Tue Aug 9 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move across the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures were in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with the higher readings underneath the cloud deck to the N and W of STL metro. Otherwise, warmer air that thus far has been held at bay will begin to advance into our region today but not to the extent yet where heat/humidity reach dangerous levels.
Early Tuesday morning, the weather pattern across the region featured weak flow aloft with a pair of weak short wave troughs, one over southwest KS and another over western MO. These were weak and somewhat convectively driven from earlier storms, but given the high moisture content of the atmosphere, not much lift is needed to develop a few thunderstorms. The warming trend will also begin in earnest today with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be warmer, in the low to middle 70s. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern US into the central plains on Wednesday, while a deep trough moves over the northwest CONUS.
Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a trough in the western US, with a low centered in WA, and weak ridging in the central Plains. A cold front also was noted from a low in northwestern ON ND/SD and southwestward. Surface pressure gradient was increasing, with a low centered in northern WY and ridging from northeastern SD/eastern ND northward.
While the axis of the low level jet overnight will also be centered across the local area. With this mostly sunny start and high pressure aloft, a hot summer day appears to be in store for the region, with heat index values exceeding 100 by mid afternoon.
The Southern CONUS upper high is progged to be shunted east by the weekend as an upper trough advances out of the West.
1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Winds this morning are becoming increasingly southerly as the high pressure ridge axis slips further eastward. Latest surface analysis not showing a great deal of change over our area as high pressure holds to our northeast early this morning. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s Wed elevate into the mid 70s Thu with upper 70s possible in spots.
Mid level ridge lingers in the short term. The highest heat indices will be near the Coastal Plains Wednesday afternoon when a heat advisory may be needed.
Further east, low-level ridging over southwest IL and eastern MO is keeping instability quite a bit lower than in is further west, so most areas near and south/east of the St. Hawblitzel Heat and humidity will build in to much of the forecast area Wednesday as upper-level heights rise and the low-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley pushes to the east.
This should keep high temperatures a bit cooler east of I-65 and in the mid to upper 80s.
The warm core, mid-level cyclone over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will meander in a general northwesterly direction over the next several days, eventually settling over the Mid-South.
with the low retrograding. The culprit? Broad low pressure impacting the region has slid west and settled over the southern Mississippi Valley, with abnormally moist tropical airmass situated over the southeast US.
VFR conditions will be predominant thru the forecast period with large scale ridging aloft. Latest water vapor imagery shows approaching upper low pressure system over WA/ID.
Low amplitude trough will move slowly east northeast from southern Texas Panhandle and provide just enough lift for scattered shower and storm development this morning.
Skies should be mostly clear with light winds and the 24hr temp and dewpoint changes suggest low level moisture has increased more than temperatures with widespread dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Additionally, dominant 500 mb high pressure over Texas will provide dry weather throughout the forecast period, with the exception of isolated streamer showers over the adjacent coastal waters tonight.
Have issued a heat advisory in Boyd county where the highest heat index readings are expected.
Will go with another heat advisory for far southeast KS Wed afternoon/evening with high temps expected to be a degree or two warmer than today. Focus will then turn to a more pronounced cold front to move through the area Thu night through Fri night. By Sat afternoon the cold front is expected to be just south of the forecast area, extending from far southern MO into central OK.
Temperatures today will warm over the past few days as thermal ridging builds towards Iowa with mid to upper 80s common and heat index values well into the 90s by afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms this evening between Stanley and Salmon as the spoke of energy rotating around the Washington/Oregon low pressure disturbance begins to lift quickly northeast.