Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UP TO 15 DEGREES WARMER. AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U. A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE VARYING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TO STAY DRY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
341 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR CLEAR SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. A PIECE OF THE LOW WILL EXPAND NORTH TO BRING VERY WET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO FRIDAY.
WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE IN VERY WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE LATE TNGT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE CONV TO MUCH OF CENTRAL TX YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE WARMER HIGHS TODAY DUE TO A LITTLE LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI WITH BETTER CONV POTENTIAL.
324 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES DRY TODAY. HOWEVER THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW SET IN THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINLY IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT FRIDAY. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT ALONG AND CLOSE TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST STATES STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
454 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THEN WIND DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WEAKENING AFTER 18Z AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ELONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S.
A QUICKLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE EJECTED FROM A TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
311 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THURSDAY AFTN WITH FCST AREA IN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROUGH. INCREASING THICKNESSES AND THE SW BREEZES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH BAY.
) MUCH COOLER TEMPS TNGT OWING IN PART TO CAA. EVEN COOLER MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT OWING TO GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING (LESS CLOUD COVER/SFC WIND) WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE CWA. ONLY SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING TO COOLER SST VALUES PER LATEST SPORT SST COMPOSITE.
COOLER AIR MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BUT WINDS DO SWITCH TO A MORE FAVORABLE WEST OR SW DIRECTION.
634 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
It appears the GFS is/has been modeling the low layer cloud field/embedded pcpn pertaining to the wrap around spiral bands rotating south of the Low track today.
935 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 WX MAP SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE OVER THE REGION.
354 PM MST WED DEC 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
COOLER WX ON THE WAY. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-8 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTH FL ZONES UNDER CLOUD SKIES.
Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across northern Illinois. High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below normal.
THERE WAS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MINS THIS MORNING WITH MINS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE WHERE THE SNOW IS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WHERE THERE IS NOTHING ON THE GROUND. SO POSSIBLE MINS MAY BE WARMER IN THE WEST IF THESE CLOUDS COME IN FASTER. WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR AFTERNOON MAXES.
719 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
NW flow aloft prevails on the southwestern fringe of an upper low over the Great Lakes region. ridging will continue to build into the region. conditions are favorable for radiational cooling and several sites will drop below freezing tonight. Other than some minor tweaks to the lows and hourly temp trends. Most of the area will experience freezing temperatures tomorrow morning, with a little warming each morning for the remainder of the week.
516 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 MUCH QUIETER WEATHER SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS SLIPPING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW MOIST THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
925 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND THURSDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALONG A HARTSVILLE SC- BARNWELL SC-VIDAILIA GA-HAZELHURST GA-TIFTON GA LINE AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS NEXT 1-3 HRS SOUTH OF I-16 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTN WILL RISE ABV THE FREEZING MARK.
DRIZZLE AND SNOW TONIGHT NEAR LK SUPERIOR THEN MORE SUNSHINE ON UPPER LOW OVER WI MOVES TO LOWER MI THIS EVENING AND TO QUEBEC ON THU. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND ALLOWS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER WEST AND NCNTRL CWA AND THIS LEADS TO UPSLOPE LIFTING.
220 PM PST WED DEC 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIRMASS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPS SHOULD DIP BELOW FREEZING IN VALLEY AREAS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA BUT NO MENTION OF FROST ATTM.
710 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF COOLER. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING MOST OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER/ TONIGHT-THURSDAY. BUT WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS OF HARNEY COUNTY. AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
932 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 49 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 47 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 47 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 44 27 52 / 10 0 0 0.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE FEW SPOTS COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR FEW HOURS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH A CLOUD-FREE SKY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
653 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 RAIN WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES UP THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
919 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U. HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
558 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
CAA WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
/ISSUED 710 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THE STRATUS WILL DECREASE FROM 11Z TO 15Z AS WARMER AND DRIER AIR AT 925-850 MB MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An upper low was located over IA/IL this afternoon. Isolated flurries and sprinkles may persist into the early evening but should taper off tonight once the upper low has moved farther away from the area. Extensive cloudiness behind the departing upper low will start to diminish overnight, especially across central MO after the upper low has moved eastward. An upper ridge axis will build across the central CONUS and shift eastward on Fri/Sat.
946 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY.
The combination of mostly clear skies with light winds should support enough radiational cooling to keep overnight low temperatures in the low/mid 20s. A weak upper trough will move across the Central Plains Thursday night as the upper flow transitions from a nearly zonal to a southwesterly flow. Light southerly winds continue through the night as high pressure slides off to the east and a low pressure trough deepens along the lee of the Rockies.
A GRADUAL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK NEAR DAYBREAK.
311 PM MST WED DEC 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
NEEDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN SOUTH AND WEST TO LINTON. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW FIELD AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/ISSUED 310 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015/ DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES.
635 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
UPDATE: Light precipitation has ended this evening as the upper level low moves eastward into the OH Valley region. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An upper low was located over IA/IL this afternoon. Isolated flurries and sprinkles may persist into the early evening but should taper off tonight once the upper low has moved farther away from the area. Extensive cloudiness behind the departing upper low will start to diminish overnight, especially across central MO after the upper low has moved eastward. An upper ridge axis will build across the central CONUS and shift eastward on Fri/Sat.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER MISSOURI. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
With the clouds, and weaker winds/less mixing on Thursday, shaved a few degrees off high temperatures expected, with highs mainly in the lower 50s. For Thursday night, south winds increase to 10 to 20 mph late ahead of an approaching upper level trough with mostly clear skies.
A GRADUAL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK NEAR DAYBREAK. 56/GDG DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE CASCADES.
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE.
LOOP OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CENTER OF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. LINGERING DEFORMATION CLOUD COVER HANGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. MODELS AND SYNTHETIC LOW CLOUD/FOG IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER //BASICALLY UP TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE// AS THE LOW PULLS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S. SREF SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG GIVEN THE DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE FOUR TO SEVEN DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ARE A BIT WARMER THAN TO THE NORTH. OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE HELPED BUMP UP THE TEMPERATURES UNDER A WEAK RIDGE. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO THE LOW 30S SO THERE IS NOT A BIG WARM UP BECAUSE OF IT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
553 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and north of I-74. Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday, as ridging builds into the Midwest.
924 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
Most of the area will experience freezing temperatures tomorrow morning, with a little warming each morning for the remainder of the week.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE COOLER THURS NIGHT THAN TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THURSDAY.
1031 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD CONFLUENT ZONE HAS SET UP THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS BEING FED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ROUNDING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND ALIGNED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL THROUGH THE MID 70S DUE TO THE HIGH DEW POINTS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THE 850 MB TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. AS THE 850 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHLAND YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A LAYER OF COLD AIR TRAILING THE SYSTEM AND POURING SWD ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DOME OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST QUICKLY TOMORROW AS A WEAK S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND INCREASES CLOUD COVER.
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK COULD BRING SOME FOG BUT I THINK IT WILL HAPPEN TOO LATE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY AT BEST FOG TO OCCUR. SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO FINALLY PUSH EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
/ISSUED 240 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015/ REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS OUR EXTREME SERN PORTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE SERN CONUS.
542 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 We decided to include a mention of freezing fog into the forecast tonight. Clear skies, light winds, and sufficient moisture in the atmosphere will be ideal for some freezing fog after midnight tonight. Dew point temperatures were in the low to mid 30s this evening, and will be pushed into the middle to upper 20s toward the early morning hours of Thursday. A negative hydrolapse structure will develop within the lower trop, potentially creating some dense fog in some areas. Winds will become nearly calm by Thursday morning as high pressure moves nearly overhead.
A weak cold front moved through the area this morning, resulting in slightly below normal high temperatures this afternoon in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. Light winds and clear skies overnight will once again allow for ample radiational cooling, with lows ranging from the middle 20s across southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of southwest Texas to the mid 30s through the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley, with some lows in the upper teens possible across the Marfa Plateau.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HAVE MINOR ACCUMS (HALF- INCH OR LESS) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER. BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, THE 1000- 850 MB LAYER RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND THE TEMPERATURES JUMP TO +3C TO +4C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RELATIVELY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO BRING OUR REGION TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and north of I-74. Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday, as ridging builds into the Midwest.
The cold front has cleared most of the area this evening with rain ending. A stream of high clouds will continue across the area overnight with the main upper trough axis still west of the area.
THE FIRST SUBTLE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT MORE VIGOROUS MIXING HOLDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
DO NOT SEE TEMPS BEING MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW. 925MB TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER BUT MIXING IS NOT THAT GREAT ONCE AGAIN.
Should see clear skies and light winds overnight, leading to some development of frost, with temperatures at or below freezing for many areas. Expect most of the fog to develop in areas that should remain above freezing, and fog should not linger very long, so do not anticipate any significant ice accumulation from freezing fog. a bit warmer than we saw today.
537 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND THURSDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. THE PRE-FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE WIND SHIFT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY MID-EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE COLD FRONT AND SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE WET CONDITIONS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO HELPING. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF COOLER. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US. TODAY WAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FCST FOR SOME OF THE CWA.