Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 High pressure across the southeastern states will maintain above- normal temperatures today. A cold front will reach the area Monday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures.
Meanwhile, the mid and upper level ridge axis lies just to the southeast of this forecast area. We've gone ahead and made some tweaks to the forecast today to lower PoPs primarily in the Tucson metro as the latest HRRR and 12Z UofA WRF-NAM and 6Z WRF-GFS depict convection developing in the higher terrain from the Catalina/Rincons/Santa Ritas then shifting eastward. As an upper level low now across Central California open up and pushes to the east across a great basin, increased southwesterly flow will help to draw up additional moisture from the Gulf of California and Sonora.
625 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 323 AM CDT Relatively quiet conditions across the area this morning as high pressure pushes east over the region. Clear skies and dry conditions allowing for some cool temps in the low 50s to upper 40s this morning. Similar conditions expected tonight but with slightly warmer temps, as high pressure begins to slide to the east and a more WAA pattern sets up.
/ISSUED / Per water vapor satellite imagery, a drying air mass is filtering into Southeast Texas from the north behind yesterday's cold front. Mid/upper level low partly responsible for area rains the last couple of days is moving from right over our area to just off to our east, and this feature along with daytime heating could generate some daytime storms mainly across parts of our far southeast counties and adjacent coastal waters.
703 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Leftover showers behind a cold front will linger over the Western Catskills and parts of the Mohawk Valley this morning. High pressure will build into the area through the day today bringing drier air and fair weather.
735 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Upper ridge weakening and getting suppressed to the south this morning as an upper trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the Atlantic coast. Max temperatures should be a few degrees cooler mainly north today.
733 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Aviation High pressure centered over Missouri will track up the Ohio Valley today and into Monday.
With deep Westerly downslope flow today and surface dewpoints in the low 20s across much of the Eastern Plains, precipitation chances will be very low there and in the Mountains today, though can't rule out an isolated T-storm in the high country with some mid-level moisture advection from Utah and Arizona.
Starting off the morning with considerable cloudiness with a few sprinkles falling from the high based cigs. A cold front has entered the northwest zones and will provide a focus for increased coverages of convection thru the day. Weather maps this morning show a high level trof pivoting quickly eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, having pushed a surface front deep into the south. With the bulk of the energy associated with the high level trof axis lifting quickly up across the New England states today, the frontal zone is left behind and begins to slow its southeastward movement, becoming quasi-stationary over the interior of the forecast area. Highs forecast in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
944 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 12z sounding data indicates slightly more unstable air mass over South Florida compared to the past couple of mornings, likely caused by a pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures associated with a small mid-level low over the area. Watching closely area of showers and thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida between Andros Island and SE Florida associated with a low-level trough over the western Bahamas. /issued 748 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016/ High pressure north of the Bahamas through the forecast period producing SE wind, gradually becoming E this afternoon at around 10 knots or less except a Gulf sea breeze at Naples/KAPF after 17z.
951 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 The Florida peninsula resides on the northeastern edge of an area of high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico in the mid and upper levels, with a northwest flow aloft. At the surface, an east to southeast wind flow continues between a trough to our southwest and high pressure to our north. Temperatures this afternoon will again run on the warm side, generally reaching the lower 90s, with a few mid-90 readings. East to southeast winds will remain in place across the waters through Monday with the area residing between high pressure to the north and a trough to our southeast.
The western Atlantic ridge axis extends west across northern Florida, brushing the base of cold front working east towards the Atlantic coastline. Across the nation's heartland, a continental high pressure system has brought cooler, drier weather to the many states from the Great Lakes to Texas. The upper levels are complicated by a trough, ridge, trough complex, all at varying depths in the upper troposphere. Along the southwestern fringe of the subtropical ridge, the lower levels are rippled by weak amplitude tropical waves, one nearly stalled in the south central Gulf of Mexico, the other pushing into the southeastern Bahamas.
748 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure north of the Bahamas through the forecast period producing SE wind, gradually becoming E this afternoon at around 10 knots or less except a Gulf sea breeze at Naples/KAPF after 17z.
1039 AM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Splitting long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest will be playing a big part in our weather over the next few days. As the trough drops south, moisture will be drawn northward across the Four Corners. Trough over the western states will dig into the Great Basin by Monday night.
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over srn MO with return, southerly low level flow already ongoing across most of the CWA. Mid level zonal flow inducing lee cyclogenesis in the high plains.
1126 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A weak cold front will move into the forecast area today and stall.
A weak cold front was moving through southwest Washington and northwest Oregon this morning with areas of low clouds over the area and some patchy morning drizzle.
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRODUCING SE WIND, GRADUALLY BECOMING E THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE AT NAPLES/KAPF AFTER 17Z.
1116 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Weak high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures for one more day. A cold front will reach the area late tonight and early Monday morning.
Kept daytime highs today about the same, as they are a tad cooler which should be the case given the tad cooler boundary which is moving through. A weak cold front that has moved across S TX this morning has resulted in sct shra's and isol tsra's across mainly the southern portions of the CWA. Temps are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler today and tonight, then warmer once again Mon.
633 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Some pretty spectacular sleeping weather underway early this morning, with temps diving down through the 40s and lower 50s with broad low level ridging working through the majority of the Mississippi River valley. That setup won't change a whole lot today with the ridge axis sliding slightly east but still very much exerting its influence locally, with highs just a shade above those noted yesterday expected. Further eastward push of that ridge will help tighten the gradient and return flow across the area later tonight into Monday, with the onset of modest warm advection ascent through the day but into a quite dry airmass initially.
949 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Update High pressure centered over Missouri will track up the Ohio Valley today and into Monday.
The low level jet strengthens and broadens overnight into with models suggesting 45 knots at 925mb. Daytime heating Wednesday will allow for thermal mixing of these higher winds which will produce another windy day across much of the Lower and Mid RGV. Also, overnight lows will be slightly lower with guidance catching on the lower numbers.
A cold front will approach the northern border of Oklahoma Wednesday evening, but is unlikely to produce any significant effects at KGAG/KWWR before 00Z.
Some scattered showers have formed along the Highway 82 corridor and will continue throughout the night into tomorrow as the cold front continues to drape itself through the Mid-South. /10/ Prior discussion below: Through Wednesday Afternoon: A rapidly deepening low pressure system moving through the Midwest today has tightened pressure/height gradients enough to cause gusty winds across the ArkLaMiss. Increased humidity, cloudiness, and continuing south winds around 10 mph will keep tonight much warmer than normal. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today as mid-level ridging builds over the Southeast U.
At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern Plains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 62 53 65 / 80 60 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 57 50 64 / 80 60 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 47 58 51 64 / 80 60 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 53 44 63 / 80 70 20 20 TN.
The cold front was approaching Western Tennessee and extending into Eastern Texas. Across the Gulf of Mexico, with the high pressure area now well to the east across the Western Atlantic, surface flow has turned to southerly and moisture is continuing to return to our region, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s along the Florida Panhandle. With the approaching trough expected to stay well to the north, not expecting much increase in moisture over the next few days.
1019 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Low pressure will track northward through the Great Lakes tonight, pushing a dying cold front/occluded front through Pennsylvania overnight. An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the southeast United States later this week and this weekend. Precip is ongoing with the far northern counties seeing a mix of sleet and freezing rain. As they grudgingly top freezing, the threat for icing will diminish accordingly. The strong low level inversion is pretty much shielding us from the worst, with the possible exception of some of the highest ridgetops. A Wind Advisory remains up for the Northwest Mountains for wind gusts around or slightly in excess of 45 mph, mainly on these ridgetops. Much milder air will flow into the region behind occluded front, as a mid level negatively tilted ridge will allow for drier air.
The surface cold front is expected to remain northwest of the area during the day on Wednesday and then start moving into the area on Wednesday night.
Thankfully for those of us who don't want a crippling ice storm, a majority of fcst models continue to trend warmer for this event.
642 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A coastal trough will brush the region tonight into Wednesday.
1018 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Arctic high pressure has shifted off the East Coast. The southerly flow on the backside of the offshore high plus air mass modification will result in warmer weather which will continue through the rest of the week. High pressure has shifted off the coast. Temperatures will remain above freezing. Warm advection continues on southerly winds, so warmer nights and temperatures above normal Wednesday afternoon, with readings in the low to mid 60s north and central, and possibly around 70 in the south Midlands/CSRA.
Strong warm air advection will keep temps nearly steady most of the night with lows in the lower to middle 50s. The trailing front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will slowly approach the region tonight.
549 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 The cold front that pushed through the area this morning was already entering the Ohio Valley at 20Z. Rapid changes in the weather will continue tonight into Wednesday with another brief warming period tonight followed by another arctic cold front moving through on Wednesday. Winds will become light southerly by early this evening then increase by midnight as a warm front lifts toward the South Dakota border. Steady to slowly rising temperatures are expected tonight across the area as the warm front becomes stationary along the northern Nebraska border and low pressure develops over southwest Nebraska. The next surge of arctic air will then move rapidly south across the state Wednesday morning with the cold front extending from northwest Illinois to southwest Kansas by late Wednesday afternoon.
711 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A low pressure system moving into southern Canada, is bringing a light wintry mix this evening that will change to rain tonight.
Expect light snow to spread east and sink south through the night as frigid arctic high pressure builds from the north. Arctic high pressure will continue to build across western and central North Dakota tonight into Wednesday.
Warm, moist air moving over the cooler bays and nearshore waters is expected to bring more sea fog tonight through the rest of the period.
437 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017 After yesterday's nasty weather day partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures were observed in Grand Junction. Elsewhere around the forecast area temperatures are running between 3 and 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The higher elevation valleys will also pick up a quick 3 to 6 inches of new snow overnight as well. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure pushing into the West Coast with another storm system centered approximately 950 miles off of the Oregon coast.
A cold front extends from the Great Lakes down to the Arklatex this evening.
418 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017 After yesterday's nasty weather day partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures were observed in Grand Junction. Elsewhere around the forecast area temperatures are running between 3 and 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The higher elevation valleys will also pick up a quick 3 to 6 inches of new snow overnight as well. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure pushing into the West Coast with another storm system centered approximately 950 miles off of the Oregon coast.
Still see some streets of snow in the strong winds behind the departing area of low pressure and upper trough over western Minnesota. This generated the poor visibility and drifting snow across the wets and south as the low departed over Wisconsin.
Will keep the High Wind Warnings going through 12Z as the models show 700 mb winds coming up to 60 kts over the southern Laramie Range by late evening. With fcsted snow amounts of 2-5 inches through Wednesday aftn along with gusty west to southwest winds, went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the lower elevations of Carbon county, along with the Arlington area.
Along with upgrade of the highlight, associated forecast grids were updated to reflect current conditions, and expected continuation of conditions, in and around Judith Gap. May be some localized blowing snow as the high builds in tonight so current advisory looks good with the warning in the mountains continuing with westerly aspects more likely to see the heaviest snow tonight.
900 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Low pressure was lifting out of Upper Michigan this evening with a trailing cold front on approach to PAH and LIT.
No sea fog noted over the bays/coastal areas so far this afternoon (per the various cams), but also no significant change(s) with the forecast (of warmer air moving over the cooler shelf waters) these next few days. Will need a significant increase in water temperatures and/or a cold front to end this fog threat. At this time, extended models are not pushing a cold front into the area until maybe Mon or Tues. The progressive pattern will amplify over the next 24 hours or so as an upper level trough digs southward over the CA coast and an upper level high builds across FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
652 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Arctic high pressure has shifted off the East Coast. The southerly flow on the backside of the offshore high plus air mass modification will result in warmer weather which will continue through the rest of the week. High pressure has shifted off the coast. There is some moisture along the coast associated with a coastal trough. Temperatures expected to remain above freezing. Warm advection continues on southerly winds, so warmer nights and temperatures above normal Wednesday afternoon, with readings in the low to mid 60s north and central, and possibly around 70 in the south Midlands/CSRA.
Blizzard conditions will continue in the Sierra with periods of rain and snow across the lower elevations.
Light showers are also dropping south and should affect the Highway 82 corridor TAF sites this evening. /28/ Through Wednesday Afternoon: A rapidly deepening low pressure system moving through the Midwest today has tightened pressure/height gradients enough to cause gusty winds across the ArkLaMiss. Increased humidity, cloudiness, and continuing south winds around 10 mph will keep tonight much warmer than normal. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today as mid-level ridging builds over the Southeast U.
1003 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Breezy and wet conditions are expected this evening as a cold front moves through. Cold front with scattered storms moving through ILN/s CWA. Cooler air will move in with the passage of the frontal boundary.
Light SSW winds expected tonight veering to WSW and increasing to around 15 kts by late morning as a lee trough is established across eastern New Mexico. Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night with lows ranging from the upper 30s northwest to middle 40s southeast. Near-record temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s, with some low 80s out in the Low Rolling Plains. This change is tied to a southward oscillation of a Polar Vortex trough across the Canadian Prairies tomorrow.
/Issued 236 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017/ Surface ridging over the region will give way to a large frontal system. Rain chances will diminish during the day as the front rotates northward as a warm front pulling the deeper moisture north and east with it.
643 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Breezy and wet conditions are expected this evening as a cold front moves through. Cooler air will move in with the passage of the frontal boundary.
The trailing front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will slowly approach the region tonight.
Evening KTBW RAOB showed a gradually moistening atmosphere, specifically at the lower levels. Atlantic high pressure will maintain a general easterly to northeasterly flow through the rest of the week.
1041 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Low pressure will track northward through the Great Lakes tonight, pushing a dying cold front/occluded front through Pennsylvania overnight. An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the southeast United States later this week and this weekend. Precip is ongoing with the far northern counties seeing a mix of sleet and freezing rain. As they grudgingly top freezing, the threat for icing will diminish accordingly. The strong low level inversion is pretty much shielding us from the worst, with the possible exception of some of the highest ridgetops. A Wind Advisory remains up for the Northwest Mountains for wind gusts around or slightly in excess of 45 mph, mainly on these ridgetops. Much milder air will flow into the region behind occluded front, as a mid level negatively tilted ridge will allow for drier air.
Powerhouse 150 kt plus upper jet now nosing into the Northern Rockies will translate ese carving out an amplifying mid-upper level trough through the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Post-frontal cold advection will result in an increasingly windy and cooler Thursday. Will continue to highlight in Weather Story/HWO for now, with brief/intense snow showers possible well inland late afternoon/evening as lapse rates steepen under upper trough axis.
An associated cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast through Nebraska with pressure rises around 2 mb behind the front. The upper trough deepens to our east and in a tight surface pressure gradient, northwest winds will remain steady/gusty through the overnight hours. The strongest winds look to subside by late afternoon when the lowest relative humidity values will be realized. a clipper system translating through the upper midwest Friday night will drag a strong cold front south through our region.
244 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Low amplitude upper ridging will drift eastward toward the forecast area today while an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes with the jet streak supporting it carves the trough as far south as the mid-South. As a result will see cool air behind the cold front that moved through the South Plains region last evening supported with additional northeasterly surface flow through much of today. Abundant cirrus again today should keep temperatures on the cooler end of objective guidance while the flip side is expected for overnight lows.
A few showers will accompany a cold front that will move through the forecast area late tonight and Thursday morning. Windy conditions will be observed in the wake of the cold front, especially at KNEW and KMSY.
Dense fog in the Lower Treasure Valley and Weiser River Basin will continue through the night as an upper level ridge allows a strengthening inversion over the lower valleys. Next chance for precipitation still on track for Friday as a weak upper trough quickly passes through the region. Building upper ridge will strengthen the low-level inversion over the Intermountain NW through Thursday. The result will be warming in the mountains, with a cooling trend in the lower valleys. Coverage of fog and low stratus expands from the lower valleys near the OR/ID border today, into the Snake Plain tonight.
/issued 255 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/ The cold front has pushed into SW OK this afternoon, with dewpoints behind it dropping into the low 20s. Then, thru the day Sat, another cold front will move into the region thanks to a mid to upper trough passing over the upper midwest. For now, the highest rain chances appear along and east of I35 within the better moisture axis.
/issued 531 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ The cold front is moving south across the Red River at 2330Z. /issued 325 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Record warm day in San Angelo this afternoon, with the high of 84 degrees breaking the old record of 81 degrees. A cold front still set to move across the area tonight and drop temperatures significantly for tomorrow.
Medium The upper level trough will move across the great Lakes with southern Wisconsin in the northwest flow, while the jet max moves across southern illinois.
A cold front has pushed through the region. Winds have turned to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front made its way through the area. While long range models are agreeing on the cold, they are still having difficulties with the next long wave trough passage in both time and space for determining precip.
/issued 923 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/ Scattered to numerous showers continued along and south of the I-40 corridor at midevening, ahead of a surface cold front. The area of showers will translate southeast along and ahead of the cold front into the early overnight. Patchy drizzle and fog will be will continue in the vicinity of the cold front, before giving way to clearing skies later this evening and early overnight. Down at the surface, a warm front is lifting across north across the Tennessee and Mississippi border. Currently the aforementioned warm front is lifting north. The best forcing will be along the cold front as the wind shear becomes nearly parallel to the mean flow, and any breaks in the line could result in bowing segments with embedded instances of damaging winds.