Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect drier conditions today and slightly warmer with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area, warmest across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Gusts around 50 mph are expected along and east of the Interstate 25 corridor, mainly along the Cheyenne Ridge and south of the North Platte River Valley. Pretty quiet weather expected for the rest of the work-week as an upper level ridge quickly moves eastward over Wyoming late Wednesday and Thursday. Models show a backdoor cold front clipping east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle late Thursday night, which may bring some slightly cooler temperatures to western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming.
1106 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Highly amplified pattern remains in place today with deep trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and an upstream ridge slowly building in from the EPac. Precipitation reaching the ground however remains limited mainly to the higher terrain though some trace amounts not out of the question in some of the adjacent valleys through sunset. The stronger core of winds shift East of the divide tomorrow and we will see a let up of the winds in the lower elevations.
Ridge aloft moves over Idaho today with continued warming conditions with low elevations in the 50s and 60s for high temperatures both today and Thursday.
early this morning, while the Florida peninsula remains situated between high pressure to the east and an approaching cold front to the west. This same region still also has a risk for excessive rainfall, which makes sense given the slow-moving nature of this system as well as the high precipitable water values.
Deep trough and low pressure aloft will keep the dvn cwa in widespread low stratus, along with scattered off and on light rain or showers. Bifurcating upper low within a slow progressing longwave trough will shift east on Thursday, with light rain and/or snow tapering off by/during the afternoon.
There will be some wrap around that will work into the area this afternoon as the upper low moves into the region. Sunny on Thursday as high pressure slides in.
(Today and tonight) Currently, a mid and upper level low/trough is located over the central section of the country with ridging to our west and east.
Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over northeast Kansas and far southwestern Iowa this afternoon. A warm front extends eastward from the low across northern Missouri into central Illinois. Temperatures at 2 PM were generally in the lower to mid 50s. Cooler air will spread into the area for Wednesday. This will result in multiple pieces of vorticity rotating around the low to interact with low level moisture across the region to produce periods of scattered showers today transitioning to light rain and drizzle tonight and continuing into Wednesday. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday from west in the morning to along the Mississippi River exiting the eastern counties by 00 UTC Thursday. 2) Shower chances will linger through Thursday with the low pressure overhead.
1126 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild conditions are expected for through tonight as low pressure heads north-northeast from the Mid Miss Valley to the Chicago area.
117 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild conditions are expected for through tonight as low pressure heads north-northeast from the Mid Miss Valley to the Chicago area.
On the heels of the departing upper lvl trough, a trailing 850-700 hpa jet will keep winds elevated and gusty through the afternoon and early evening and continued CAA behind a sfc cold front will only allow highs to peak in the 50s for most locations across the CWA. Clear skies and lighter winds are expected Wednesday night which will lead to another cold morning on Thursday with temps bottoming out in the low to mid 30s.
(Today) Our area still remains beneath a broad central CONUS upper trough.
Wet snow could mix in Wednesday and Thursday mornings as temperatures cool towards freezing, but no accumulation or impacts are expected.
/issued 633 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ Line of storms are well to the east as drier and cooler air continues to filter in this evening. Water vapor imagery shows upper level trough is pivoting out of Texas and helping dry slot the region that will cut off the very moist Gulf airmass and end shower activity. The trough is also helping to push a surface cold front eastward and is now across the Sabine River Basin into southwest Louisiana. These drier and cooler conditions will overtake the forecast area through the evening hours. Only issue may be some breezy conditions during the daytime as solar heating and mixing brings some of the higher winds aloft to the surface.
An upper level trough slowly moves over our area today into tonight. A mid level impulse rotating through the base of the trough today into this evening will bring areas of mid level clouds. The trough and impulse move off to the east later tonight into Thursday. A downsloping vector should allow for warmer near normal high temperatures.
1139 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper level low is moving south through NM early this morning. Freezing fog is possible at central and eastern TAF sites between 09Z and 15Z. The unseasonably deep and cold low pressure system that moved across New Mexico yesterday is making its way into the lower Midwest. However, cooler than normal temperatures and scattered showers are still lingering behind in New Mexico. A couple inches of additional snow accumulation will be possible in the higher terrain of central New Mexico overnight. Winds will decrease slightly in some areas on Wednesday, but breezy to windy conditions will still be widespread with the highest gusts persisting in the northeastern and northwestern corners of New Mexico.
Most of the area will see fairly calm winds today as high pressure slowly works eastward over the state. This is a result of a tighter pressure gradient remaining between high pressure over western North Dakota and deep low pressure over northern Illinois that will ever so slowly continue to churn northeast into the Great Lakes Region tonight. Meanwhile, a west CONUS ridge will slide over the state tonight. As a result of the aforementioned ridge in the short term discussion, well above average temperatures are expected across the entire forecast area Thursday. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s everywhere, except the Turtle mountains area where things will remain slightly cooler.
Regarding headlines, the high wind warning still looks to be in good shape. Combine those two bits of info and I am confident that at least the higher elevations are seeing warning criteria winds.
905 PM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Building high pressure aloft and offshore flow at the surface will bring Santa Ana conditions to Southern California this week with above average temperatures and areas of gusty easterly winds.
A blocking pattern aloft will keep the upper low from progressing much to the east the next 48 hrs. An increase in low clouds (stratus) is expected Wednesday as the upper low fully occludes and the low-level cold conveyor wraps back to the west.
227 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A strong upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the region today. This should dry us out and allow for warmer temperatures as an upper ridge builds in towards the west.
with just some light rain or DZ noted as moisture wraps around the upper low to the NW of AR. Temps are much cooler as well behind a frontal boundary that moved through Tue evening. This will be the primary story through this afternoon/evening as moisture continues to wrap around the upper low to the NW as it meanders over the central CONUS. There could be a light wintry mix in the higher terrain of the Ozarks late tonight into Thu morning. but impacts should remain limited if none as temps will remain above freezing. The upper low will begin to exit the central CONUS by late Thu.
403 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Cold front is currently still west of the Mississippi River. A warm front is situated across SW portions of GA and should continue to push northward through the morning. The cold front should move through the CWA later this afternoon and into the evening hours. along and/or ahead of the cold front. Whether storms develop along a differential heating boundary or along a pre-frontal trough, do think additional storms are likely this afternoon, mainly along and south of the Interstate-85 corridor. Have blended in some warmer temps south of the I-85 corridor for today.
High pressure builds throughout the remainder of the week, leading to a significant warm up. High res deterministic models and ensembles continue to show winds quickly abating between sunrise and mid-morning while a broad positive tilt ridge expands over the western states today.
318 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today and tonight with crossing low pressure. If enough instability develops with daytime heating later today, severe storms will be possible, with the highest chances of occurrence for areas where SPC has a Slight Risk/sct covg outlooked across OH. Isolated severe storms are possible further ewd where the Marginal Risk is placed, though the instability is progged to be even more limited resulting in the lower potential.
High pressure building into the region will maintain mild and dry weather through Wednesday. A Pacific weather system moves quickly across the area Thursday morning, accompanied by windy conditions and some showers along with cooler temperatures before warmer conditions redevelop again by the weekend. /ISSUED 545 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ Skies are clear over the region today, as an upper level ridge axis tilts across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures continue to trend warmer into Wednesday, with highs into the mid- to upper 60s. The ridge axis slips away to the east later on Wednesday, resulting in a stronger westerly wind component.
The dry slot associated with the progression of the upper low is making headway to the northeast.
The front exits the region overnight allowing the ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Temperatures today will be warmer than normal and then a little cooler Thursday and closer to normal.
634 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Large cut-off low nearly vertically stacked through the troposphere continues to ever so slowly move eastward while several well defined vorticity maximums rotate around within the larger atmospheric gyre.
824 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 An elongated upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, maintaining mild and dry conditions through the rest of today. A ridge of high pressure aloft will bring the warmest temperatures of the season so far before a passing trough brings a few showers, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions for Thursday. /ISSUED 310 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ The elongated upper-level ridge extending well into Canada continues to propagate eastward across the state.
915 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Radar, obs and satellite imagery indicate the cold front was nearing the GA state line. The upper level closed low will amplify and shift further southeastward on Thursday. All of these factors will lead to cooler highs in the low 60s for most locations.
433 AM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will continue the warming trend today.
As mixing increases ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures will warm well above normal. Breezy winds will increase through the afternoon as the cold front approaches, though wind speeds are not expected to be overly strong. The cold front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning. Snow levels will remain relatively high until early Thursday, and by that point showers will be largely decreasing, leaving an inch or two of snow in only the highest terrain. High pressure will build back over the region Thursday and continue into the weekend.
630 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today and tonight with crossing low pressure. If enough instability develops with daytime heating later today, severe storms will be possible, with the highest chances of occurrence for areas where SPC has a Slight Risk/sct covg outlooked across OH. Isolated severe storms are possible further ewd where the Marginal Risk is placed, though the instability is progged to be even more limited resulting in the lower potential.
412 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Upper-level troughing will remain over the forecast area today allowing several pieces of energy to dive south into the forecast area. Around sunset the low level inversion will develop leading to an abrupt decrease in wind speeds for tonight. These light wind speeds will allow overnight temperatures to fall near to below freezing for most locations on the Caprock with temperature near freezing to the mid 30's off the Caprock. An upper ridge will begin to approach late Thursday, resulting in winds becoming light through the night. As the ridge approaches, thicknesses will increase.
This area of very light rain/light drizzle will end by sunrise and cooler than normal temperatures along with dry weather is expected through the period. Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large closed low spinning over the central Plains. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s at most locations but a few sites in the north will dip into the upper 30s. By Thursday night, a steep trough axis centered over the ArkLaMiss region will eject to the east of MS. As the trough pushes to the east, a ridge will begin to amplify over the western CONUS.
611 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently, a mid and upper level low/trough is located over the central section of the country with ridging to our west and east.
322 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Ridging will build in today with dry conditions continuing into tomorrow. Thursday will bring all 60s to the lower elevations. Otherwise, building ridge will bring quiet wx and decreasing winds.
336 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Ridging will build in today with dry conditions continuing into tomorrow. Thursday will bring all 60s to the lower elevations. Otherwise, building ridge will bring quiet wx and decreasing winds.
310 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 An elongated upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, maintaining mild and dry conditions through the rest of today. The elongated upper-level ridge extending well into Canada continues to propagate eastward across the state.
/Issued 403 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ Cold front is currently still west of the Mississippi River. A warm front is situated across SW portions of GA and should continue to push northward through the morning. The cold front should move through the CWA later this afternoon and into the evening hours. along and/or ahead of the cold front. Whether storms develop along a differential heating boundary or along a pre-frontal trough, do think additional storms are likely this afternoon, mainly along and south of the Interstate-85 corridor. Have blended in some warmer temps south of the I-85 corridor for today.
High pressure will strengthen across the region through the remainder of the week, bringing dry conditions along with a significant warming trend.
Expect these to be based around 5000 feet at the lowest, conditions should stay VFR. Upper low continues to churn over the eastern Plains as it slowly departs to the east. Thursday, northwesterly flow aloft will be predominant as the main upper trough finally completes its departure.
The upper level trough will gradually push east through the day today, allowing high pressure and dry air to continue pushing into the area.
Temperatures will trend higher on Thursday as high pressure builds again over the region.
655 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A strong upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the region today. This should dry us out and allow for warmer temperatures as an upper ridge builds in towards the west.
The cold front extends from eastern AL, western FL panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning with deep convection ahead of the front.
437 AM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Wednesday will be warmer with a chance for showers across the Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington during the afternoon and evening.
614 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 (Today) Our area still remains beneath a broad central CONUS upper trough.
315 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 As the deep trough over the center of the country continues to shift eastward, the amplifying ridge over the West Coast will finally start to build in over the Four Corners region today. Lingering clouds over the higher terrain this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees over yesterday. The strong northerly jet that has been situated over eastern Utah and western Colorado the last two days will also finally shift east, although not before bringing gusty winds to the higher terrain for one more day, with the southern mountains most favored to see gusts in the 25- 35 mph range. Expect winds to finally diminish tonight as the ridge takes control.
515 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today and tonight with crossing low pressure. If enough instability develops with daytime heating later today, severe storms will be possible, with the highest chances of occurrence for areas where SPC has a Slight Risk/sct covg outlooked across OH. Isolated severe storms are possible further ewd where the Marginal Risk is placed, though the instability is progged to be even more limited resulting in the lower potential.
/issued 412 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ Upper-level troughing will remain over the forecast area today allowing several pieces of energy to dive south into the forecast area. Around sunset the low level inversion will develop leading to an abrupt decrease in wind speeds for tonight. These light wind speeds will allow overnight temperatures to fall near to below freezing for most locations on the Caprock with temperature near freezing to the mid 30's off the Caprock. An upper ridge will begin to approach late Thursday, resulting in winds becoming light through the night. As the ridge approaches, thicknesses will increase.
An elongated upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, maintaining mild and dry conditions through the rest of today. The elongated upper-level ridge extending well into Canada continues to propagate eastward across the state.
Updated the grids and expanded the High Wind Warning to encompass the entire SLV, with gusts up to about 50 knots expected this afternoon.
538 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper level low is moving south through NM early this morning.
524 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 As the deep trough over the center of the country continues to shift eastward, the amplifying ridge over the West Coast will finally start to build in over the Four Corners region today. Lingering clouds over the higher terrain this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees over yesterday. The strong northerly jet that has been situated over eastern Utah and western Colorado the last two days will also finally shift east, although not before bringing gusty winds to the higher terrain for one more day, with the southern mountains most favored to see gusts in the 25- 35 mph range. Expect winds to finally diminish tonight as the ridge takes control.
These breezes are being driven by a high pressure system located well northeast of the Bahamas. Rain chances will trend upwards over the next couple of days as the high moves further away from our area and the Keys falls within a zone of increasingly moist and confluent flow ahead of an approaching messy prefrontal trough. However, this break should end quickly as the prefrontal trough moves across Florida later that day and a col pushes eastward through the Keys. The highest rain chances will fall on Thursday night as the trough moves out into the Atlantic and winds surge modestly out of the northwest.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ The aforementioned closed low/upper trough, that brought us our recent severe weather, has finally moved northeastward into the Midwest. Cloud cover has departed the region with the trough, leaving behind mostly sunny skies areawide. However, a tight pressure gradient has developed beneath the closed low. Another closed trough will move across the region tonight, dragging another cold front across the region. Low to mid 30s are expected north of Interstate 30, with an isolated freezing temp reading possible. But, if cloud cover is greater than anticipated, overnight temps could be a tad bit warmer.
An upper ridge will be moving in from northwest today. There is still a pretty strong pressure gradient between high pressure building over the Rockies and low pressure out on the central plains. It will be mostly clear, dry and warming today as the ridge moves over. Temperatures should be back to near normal by afternoon, with highs in the 50s across the plains, 40s in the foothills, and 20s and 30s in the higher country. Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the plains and single digits and teens in the high country. The mountain valleys will be the coldest under mostly clear skies and the lower foothills and adjacent plains will be warmest due to light downsloping drainage. Thursday will see warmer temperatures and less winds as weak high pressure builds with decreasing northwest flow aloft.
A ridge aloft will continue to warm temperatures over the next several days.
1138 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 As the deep trough over the center of the country continues to shift eastward, the amplifying ridge over the West Coast will finally start to build in over the Four Corners region today. Lingering clouds over the higher terrain this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees over yesterday. The strong northerly jet that has been situated over eastern Utah and western Colorado the last two days will also finally shift east, although not before bringing gusty winds to the higher terrain for one more day, with the southern mountains most favored to see gusts in the 25- 35 mph range. Expect winds to finally diminish tonight as the ridge takes control.
404 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Showers and thunderstorms, some being severe, will plague the region through tonight with crossing low pressure.
Freezing fog may redevelop overnight in northern and central valleys as well. 12Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper level low is moving south through NM early this morning.
347 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Severe weather threat continues this afternoon as potent low pressure tracks to the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler air circulating around the low will bring an end to showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Tomorrow, a northeast orientated ridge is going to settle over west central portions of North Dakota. A short wave trough over Saskatchewan will dig into the northern plains by the evening hours Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to warm up into the 50s to 60s due to compressional warming from an advancing cold front.
1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently, a mid and upper level low/trough is located over the central section of the country with ridging to our west and east.
Southwest flow aloft continues over the local area through the period as the longwave trough remains to our west. The dry air aloft will mix down during the day Thursday, resulting in surface dewpoints to drop into the lower/middle 30s by early afternoon with minimum relative humidity values ranging from 24 to 31 percent. Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 40s northwest of I-65, and the mid to upper 40s southeast.
108 PM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Upper ridge over the area today will be flattened by a disturbance that sends a cold front east through the area early tomorrow (Thursday). The cold front will kick up northwest winds by the afternoon with gusts of 45 to possibly 50 mph.
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A strong upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the region today. This should dry us out and allow for warmer temperatures as an upper ridge builds in towards the west.
1052 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A large upper trough covers the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Arklatex. There will be a few light showers or patchy drizzle with highs mainly in the lower 50s.