Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 158 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ A large and persistent upper level high pressure system centered across the desert southwest will be a main weather feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days.
Otherwise, a somewhat cooler day is in store for areas east of the Laramie Range with gusty southeast winds especially in the afternoon.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Messaging Highlights: 1) Chance of thunderstorms tonight through Monday along and near a southward advancing cold front. 2) Autumn like lows on Monday night in the low to mid 50s north.
524 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
652 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
/EC/ An expansive 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of the country this afternoon will continue to keep the weather relatively quiet over Central MS and the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has slowly moved to the southeastern portion of the country. However, south/southwesterly winds will start up as that ridge axis shifts to the east, pushing more moisture into the region. Heat indices will surge into the low to mid 100s again from mid day into the afternoon. Upper-level ridging stretched across the CONUS from the west to east will keep conditions pretty much the same each day throughout the forecast period for our area. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s each day following the weekend trend of warm weather.
505 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Quick update to cancel the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 as the cold frontal zone has cleared LaMoure and Dickey Counties as of 22 UTC, ending the risk of convection in our area. Current surface analysis places cold front pushing through eastern North Dakota, currently orientated from near Hillsboro to east of Ellendale. a quiet night is expected across the area in the wake of the cold front. modest ridging develops over the area keeping conditions dry. Some fire weather concerns develop given the low dewpoint expected over the west and south central, but stronger winds remain to the north and east where tighter pressure gradient is expected as low passes through northern Manitoba.
Could be a relative minimum in the convective threat for a period during the afternoon hours, before increasing again towards Monday evening and on into Monday night as a cold front approches. Differences exist among the operational and ensemble data as to how far south the cold front will get.
After a cool-for-August day today and cool- for-August night tonight, upper level ridging begins to build back in tomorrow which will help lead to warmer temperatures.
1016 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern states will continue over the eastern states. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week supporting the typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and near normal temperatures. Expecting lows to fall into the low and mid 70s under mostly clear skies again. A weak 500 mb trough to our west Monday morning will slowly move east, crossing the Midlands and CSRA through Monday night. Weak lee- side troughing will provide some surface convergence to support afternoon thunderstorms.
Quick update to cancel the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 as the cold frontal zone has cleared LaMoure and Dickey Counties as of 22 UTC, ending the risk of convection in our area. Current surface analysis places cold front pushing through eastern North Dakota, currently orientated from near Hillsboro to east of Ellendale. a quiet night is expected across the area in the wake of the cold front. modest ridging develops over the area keeping conditions dry. Some fire weather concerns develop given the low dewpoint expected over the west and south central, but stronger winds remain to the north and east where tighter pressure gradient is expected as low passes through northern Manitoba.
Lows in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s in the Orlando metro.
/issued 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ The upper level ridge has re-centered this afternoon from northern Chihuahua Mexico into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. A weak convectively enhanced impulse was riding over the northern part of this ridge near Ruidoso, New Mexico and should continue gradually east into the eastern plains of New Mexico to the Texas border during the evening. Monday we expect the upper ridge to amplify through the southern Rockies and place our region in northwest flow aloft.
A front was progressing southwest across the high plains early this evening. Otherwise, a somewhat cooler day is in store for areas east of the Laramie Range with gusty southeast winds especially in the afternoon.
732 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Have raised POPs some but not to the high/likely values hinted at in the more aggressive guidance.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb ridging will continue to dominate across the state through the short term period while an inverted trough/tropical wave to the south across the western Bay of Campeche advances westward into inland Mexico.
Expect another mild night, with temperatures gradually falling into the low to mid 70s by early Monday morning. Upper ridge axis over much of the region may begin to weaken just a little bit on Mon, thereby allowing more iso/sct showers/tstms over parts of the mid TN Valley heading into the afternoon hrs. Outside of the rainfall, unseasonably hot/humid conditions will again develop, with afternoon highs climbing into the lower/midi 90s and max heat indices climbing into the 99-104F range for some areas. Gen weaknesses in the ridge pattern aloft may again allow for sct showers/tstms in the afternoon, but may not be enough to offset the hot/humid wx conditions across much of the area. Overnight lows thru Tue night gen look to remain in the lower 70s/near 70F for most locations.
This combined with a forecast weakness in the upper ridge over the Southeast US and an uptick in shower and storm coverage in the CAM guidance mean POPs have been increased tomorrow to high chance (40- 50%) in the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain, which will be closest to the track of the MCV that looks to pass south of the region.
Cooler post frontal air mass will support overnight lows in the 50s, and considering how dry the air mass is we could have locations drop to the 40s with good radiational conditions. I made a conservative adjustment temp forecast to reflect cooler spots being a bit lower. Favorable mid level lapse rates are quickly transitioning south and east of our CWA as the cold front moves over the RRV. Cold frontal system now moving across northwest MN and southeastern ND with stronger deep layer shear across northwest MN and deeper instabilities in far southeast ND into west central MN.
315 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Convection has been developing over the far eastern plains this afternoon as a lee trough axis has formed over Baca and Prowers counties. A cold front is expected to pass over the region during the morning tomorrow, bringing lower clouds and gusty (around 25 knots) winds over the eastern plains. Tomorrow will be cooler than what the plains have been experiencing as of late, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and the rest of the region will primarily be unaffected by the front, so temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s over the upper Rio Grande, San Luis, and Wet Mountain Valleys, and the upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Cold frontal system now moving across northwest MN and southeastern ND with stronger deep layer shear across northwest MN and deeper instabilities in far southeast ND into west central MN.
937 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Weak high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain over the area through Monday. A weak trough of low pressure aloft will drift from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region by midweek and linger into the weekend. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday, increasing through the later half of the week as the upper trough drifts into the region. Little change in temperatures, although the northwestern areas and mountains may be a tad cooler tonight than in recent days where the dewpoints are a notch lower, but that will be short lived as humidity will return in earnest through the remainder of the week.
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 (This evening through Monday) Hot and humid conditions will persist underneath the upper high pressure ridge. Weak westerly flow around the northern side of the upper high is expected to assist some of these storms to move into northwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon.
802 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
On Monday will be monitoring a cold front crossing southwest Kansas which currently appears to be located late day near or just south of a Johnson City to Dodge City to Larned line. North of this boundary the highs Monday afternoon are expected to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s while south of this boundary the highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s. An upper level trough, associated with the left exit region of a +50knot 250 jet will approach southwest Kansas Monday morning which may give rise to some widely scattered thunderstorms early Monday. The better chance for convection will be during the afternoon and evening across southwest and south central Kansas based on the improving instability and moisture near a surface boundary as the upper level trough across southwest Kansas.
/issued 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas, and our area will have very little change in conditions tonight and Monday. The large upper level ridge remains parked pretty much on top of Texas through the first half of the week. At any rate, along with the hot temperatures, no rain is expected due to the upper level ridge suppressing convection.
If showers/weak convective elements are above the freezing level, cant rule out isolated gusty winds.
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The region will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland area of broad low pressure. A mid level trough will remain over the region as ridging builds to the west. Very little change in the large scale pattern is shown by global models through the period as a broad trough persists inland and higher pressure well offshore over the Atlantic. However, the higher blended PoPs collaborate well with surrounding offices.
342 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Warmer and increasingly humid air will spread across the area through the first half of this work week with dangerous heat indices possible at some locations.
However, the shower and thunderstorm chances will increase throughout the day as a cold front enters central Indiana with a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Thus bumped up PoPs late tonight to the high end of the chance category.
During the forecast period the low levels will be dominated by southerly flow as a weak ridge will be located across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A flat mid/upper level ridge will be located across the region through mid week. This will keep diurnal seabreeze activity on the more isolated to widely scattered scale, with the best coverage to be over lower Acadiana due to better low level convergence provided by the interaction of the lower Atchafalaya Basin and the Vermilion Bay. Toward the end of the week rain chances and how active the sea breeze will be will depend on the strength of the upper level ridge. As it stands now, the center of the upper level ridge will shift to the southwest US and northwest old Mexico.
125 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The region will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland area of broad low pressure. A mid level trough will remain over the region as ridging builds to the west. Very little change in the large scale pattern is shown by global models through the period as a broad trough persists inland and higher pressure well offshore over the Atlantic. However, the higher blended PoPs collaborate well with surrounding offices.
An area of convection along the cold front in northeast Nebraska, and within the post- frontal regime in SD, may be the first signs of an eventual complex of storms that may expand in coverage during the remainder of the morning hours. A downturn in convection is expected on Tuesday as high pressure influences the area for much of the day before sliding off to the east.
/issued 357 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ An upper-level ridge continues to dominate the region. The ridge has squandered any rain chances through today and has kept us dry across the Mid-South. Heat index values have reached into the low 100s but have remained below the 105 degree threshold needed for an advisory. On Tuesday, the ridge that has been influencing the area will break down. Additionally, an upper-level trough will develop over eastern KS and slowly push east into northern AR as well as northern TN.
Once this activity pushes into Indiana, a lull in precip chances will be noted from mid-morning through early afternoon, before attention turns to the development of strong to severe convection in advance of a cold front later in the day. 00z Aug 10 models have continued the recent trend of pushing the cold front slightly further southward before it stalls.
258 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Morning lows in the low and mid 70s. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore and weak sfc-700mb low over the area through the period. Mid level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures will also warm through Monday with a dry cold front expected on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will return by mid week.
The high resolution CAMs failed to signify a heavy rain threat earlier this morning from Sheboygan, WI across the lake through Pentwater and eastern Oceana County.
As high pressure drifts across the region tonight, look for clear skies, light winds, and cooler temperatures. It will remain dry during the day with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Shear does not look overly impressive at this point, so thinking that severe chances are on the lower end.
442 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Morning lows in the low and mid 70s. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore and weak sfc-700mb low over the area through the period. Mid level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Otherwise skies will be mostly clear tonight after midnight weak weak high pressure just south of the region. An increase in moisture is expected tomorrow as a trough develops north of the region with southwest low level flow in place over the area. Lows tonight will be warm and muggy in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast.
Looking ahead to the rest of today, winds have shifted to out of the north near the surface, bringing us a drier and slightly cooler Monday, with highs expected around 80 and dewpoints only in the mid and upper 40s.
An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to progress towards the east coast through tomorrow night. The trough will also build southeast over the Appalachians and Carolinas during this time. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will persist over the southern Plains, but also build over the ARKLATEX region and into Alabama. Therefore, the local area will be roughly on the east side of the upper ridge (with the upper trough building to the northeast). At the surface, high pressure will build over the southeastern CONUS through Monday night, during which time PWATs will range from 1. This, combined with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, will result in heat indices area-wide ranging from 100-107 degrees (just under Heat Advisory criteria).
Capping inversion appears to be fairly strong through 00Z, but maybe weakened this evening as a cold front moves through. Storms are expected to move out of the area on Monday morning, and with Canadian high pressure building into the Northern Plains, tranquil conditions are expected the remainder of Monday into Tuesday.
A surface cold front is currently draped across the area starting from northeast Colorado extending northeastward to to just east of Minneapolis, Minnesota. A nocturnal 850mb jet is oriented parallel to the cold front and becomes westerly as it reaches far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. The orientation of the low-level jet is providing some convergence along the front, but since it is oriented parallel to it, that convergence is not overly strong. As the today continues, the cold front is expected to march southeast and is expected to make its way to northwest Missouri by 00z Tuesday, and will bring cooler temperatures ranging from the upper 70's in the northwestern CWA to the mid to upper 80's in the far southeastern corner.
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Weak high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain over the area through Monday. A weak trough of low pressure aloft will drift from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region by midweek and linger into the weekend. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday, increasing through the later half of the week as the upper trough drifts into the region. Little change in temperatures, although the northwestern areas and mountains may be a tad cooler tonight than in recent days where the dewpoints are a notch lower, but that will be short lived as humidity will return in earnest through the remainder of the week.
Assuming a period of sunshine across the western CWA behind the MCS, highs should reach the lower 90s with heat index potentially around 105 degrees from about Havana and Springfield west. Highest PoP's will be near and south of I-70, while high pressure over the Great Lakes tries to get some drier air in here for a time.
246 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the area, with high pressure over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure west of Hudson Bay, with ridging along the west coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the plains, 70s over the Black Hills. Winds will turn south to southeast during the day as high pressure gradually slides east of the region.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered generally over far western Texas. Subsidence under the Ridge keeps rain out of most areas. With the thermal ridge lingering across our area, persistence will be followed on temperatures. Near seasonal humidity levels are expected as dewpoints mix out each afternoon resulting in heat index values only slightly warmer than actual temperatures.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 94 72 94 / 60 40 60 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 92 71 93 / 60 30 60 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 92 71 93 / 60 30 60 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 88 67 91 / 40 30 60 30 60.
1153 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Have raised POPs some but not to the high/likely values hinted at in the more aggressive guidance.
Very dry conditions will continue for most of this period, with a dry cold front moving in on Tuesday to bring a breezy to windy aftermath that continues into the medium range forecast.
133 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Have raised POPs some but not to the high/likely values hinted at in the more aggressive guidance.
/NF/ An expansive 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of the country this afternoon will continue to keep the weather relatively quiet over Central MS and the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has slowly moved to the southeastern portion of the country. However, south/southwesterly winds will start up as that ridge axis shifts to the east, pushing more moisture into the region. Heat indices will surge into the low to mid 100s again from mid day into the afternoon. Upper-level ridging stretched across the CONUS from the west to east will keep conditions pretty much the same each day throughout the forecast period for our area. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s each day following the weekend trend of warm weather.
Quick update to cancel the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 as the cold frontal zone has cleared LaMoure and Dickey Counties as of 22 UTC, ending the risk of convection in our area. Current surface analysis places cold front pushing through eastern North Dakota, currently orientated from near Hillsboro to east of Ellendale. a quiet night is expected across the area in the wake of the cold front. modest ridging develops over the area keeping conditions dry. Some fire weather concerns develop given the low dewpoint expected over the west and south central, but stronger winds remain to the north and east where tighter pressure gradient is expected as low passes through northern Manitoba. Mainly quiet conditions continue into Tuesday as upper ridge passes over.
318 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The subtropical ridge just does not want to budge, It has been lodged over Central Florida for days and will continue to through this week. The TUTT combined with an upper low in the Northern Gulf is producing light but mostly divergent flow over Florida.
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 (This evening through Monday) Hot and humid conditions will persist underneath the upper high pressure ridge. Weak westerly flow around the northern side of the upper high is expected to assist some of these storms to move into northwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Today through Tuesday night Latest surface analysis places a warm front just to the northeast of the state while upper level high pressure is centered right along the Arkansas/Louisiana border, Generally light southwest wind is keeping plenty of moisture in place with dew point temperatures holding steady in the lower to mid 70s. Precipitation chances will increase in response staring over the northwest late Monday night and early Tuesday as the system effectively knocks down the upper high. Associated cold front will provide a focusing point for convection with showers and thunderstorms moving in a general east to southeast direction Tuesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances and no heat related headlines are anticipated.
200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Today the primary instability axis will extend from SE NM newd into TX Panhandle along and just e of the lee trof. The center of the subtropical anticyclone will be just w of ELP resulting in a nw mid-level steering component across the aforementioned instability axis. More of the same for Tue, except SB instability axis and lee trof will not be as sharp and coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be less. The subtropical anticyclone will be far enough removed to the w-nw Sun-Mon that temps will be able to cool of a few degrees, but still above normal.
221 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Early morning radar imagery showed a cluster of severe storms moving through the Twin Cities area, just ahead of a southwest to northeast oriented surface cold front. Any precip should exit by late afternoon/early evening with high pressure building in behind the front.
With high pressure ridging dominating the pattern at all scales today, temperatures should warm up to the mid or upper 90s (several degrees above normal for this time of year).