Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, an amplified ridge through the mid and upper levels will be building from the west. A northerly 850 mb flow will continue to provide cold advection, but much weatker than the past few days, which will allow full sun heating to bring high temps into the lower 60s south to mid 50s north. tonight, high clouds will start to increase from the west as the upper ridge axis moves overhead.
1244 AM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place through the weekend.
1156 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Aviation High pressure will move east Sunday and a vigorous low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes.
Adjusted minimum temperatures in the valleys to be a couple degrees warmer since they do not seem to be decoupling as quickly, even with the calm winds and clear skies. Fairly benign weather through the short term portion of the forecast as a large high pressure system has control over much of the eastern U. Strong ridging is in place aloft to, with northwest flow pulling dry but cool air into the region.
In addition, theta-e ridging will only deepen with time overnight as it expands ENE into E TX/SE OK/SW AR/much of N LA late, resulting in isolated to widely sct -SHRA development over these areas. Already seeing some weak evidence of this occurring as the mosaic radar imagery continues to depict some weak elevated returns over the DFW Metroplex tailing SW into Wcntrl TX (with some Trace amounts recorded recently at MWL and FTW/AFW based on the most recent sfc obs), which should continue to expand E atop the H700-500 ridging in place to help initiate development late. These cloud decks to gradually begin to lower to low vfr and chances of rain and a few tstms with good elevated instability and strong veering wind flow in the low lvls.
344 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Temperatures have actually warmed overnight into the low to mid 60s across southeast Texas where low clouds had developed as warmer air aloft overran the cooler air at the surface. The cloud cover was acting much like a blanket to keep things a bit warmer there.
As the deep layer ridge axis moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight, an initial surge of warm advection and moisture will bring a chance of isolated to scattered rain showers to the west after midnight. Lows will be noticeably warmer, with temperatures generally in the 40s.
303 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Mid level ridging that has kept the dry weather over the area will slide to the east today as a rather vigorous mid level trough rotates out into the Plains.
In ne TX, these cloud decks to gradually begin to lower to low vfr and chances of rain and a few tstms with good elevated instability and strong veering wind flow in the low lvls. In addition, theta-e ridging will only deepen with time overnight as it expands ENE into E TX/SE OK/SW AR/much of N LA late, resulting in isolated to widely sct -SHRA development over these areas. Already seeing some weak evidence of this occurring as the mosaic radar imagery continues to depict some weak elevated returns over the DFW Metroplex tailing SW into Wcntrl TX (with some Trace amounts recorded recently at MWL and FTW/AFW based on the most recent sfc obs), which should continue to expand E atop the H700-500 ridging in place to help initiate development late.
21z sfc map showed low pressure across eastern colorado with a thin ribbon of 40s dewpoints extending into central KS. Larger viewpoint shows Gulf moisture remains confined to central/south TX due to continued E fetch in wake of large upper low across the East.
Deep layer ridging and a very dry airmass remain in place. Highs will range from the upper 60s northernmost zones to the lower and mid 70s elsewhere.
Regional radar showing reflectivities within these clouds across Wisconsin, but the air mass in the lower levels was pretty dry, and not much was reaching ground. Temperatures across nrn Michigan ranged from the teens in low lying areas that were clear, to the lower 30s under the mid level cloud (Frankfort). Upper level low pressure dominates the nrn Atlantic, as well as the pacific NW. Low pressure deepens in the central plains, with increasing Gulf moisture streaming northward and resulting in the expansion of rain and nrn conus snow.
Isolated showers will end by late tonight as a cold upper trough over northern California moves off to the east. Tonight and Sunday night will be chilly with low temperatures near freezing in the inland valleys.
High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley resulting in another night of clear skies and light winds occurring across the area. High pressure covers most of the eastern U. Some areas of west Tennessee will see temperatures reach near or slightly below freezing early Sunday morning. High pressure will slide off to the east on Sunday while a storm system moves out of the Rockies and into the central Plains.
An upper trough will swing through the Rockies today with fairly strong winds (perhaps 40-50kt at 700mb) moving overhead as a result. Will maintain the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and opted to issue a Wind Advisory for the Eddy County Plains and south to include the Delaware and Davis Mountains.
1144 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Upper level ridging will shift east of the area tonight into Sunday as a deep long wave trough approaches from the west. Sharp ridge through the central plains into central Canada today. Closed low off the Oregon coast with leading edge of precipitation shield from south central Montana too Northern California. High temps this afternoon two categories off with southeast to east fetch of cooler moist air. Best forcing just to the east of the forecast area Sunday night as the upper low deepens and drives into northwest Nebraska. Strong northwest winds develop over the west Sunday night and increase through the morning as upper low deepens and moves east into northeast Nebraska.
238 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure at the surface, and aloft, will begin to shift east today.
Mid level ridge and subsequent downward vertical motions leading to sun filled skies today. Some mid clouds are streaming/developing northward from MO through central IA within strengthening warm air advection on backside of ridge. Given this along with the low level dry air I have stayed near to below cold side of guidance, and more towards persistence lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
306 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 The upper level ridging over the Mid South today will begin to break down as a large upper level low pressure system over the west coast pushes east into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley.
As the afore-mentioned cyclone continues to strengthen as it lifts E/NE across Nebraska & the Dakotas, the attendant cold front, that will surge across most of KS late tonight, would cross the KS/MO border Mon morning. With the vicious surface cyclone occluding as it lifts almost due north, the NW winds that'll spread across KS will be strong enough for winds to easily reach advisory criteria. On Tue, the intense upper-deck cyclone will be driven SE across the Mid-MS Valley Tue afternoon. This would likewise drive the surface cyclone SE across MO. Wed-Fri: The remainder of the work-week will be quiet as broad ridging spreads across the Plains.
/Today through Tonight/ The weather will change quite a bit this period as the effects of the approaching western CONUS long wave trough increase and quickly blossom precip into tonight. 1-3km thermodynamic lift will increase sharply as well with a maturing cold front aloft and coincident frontogenetic axis reaching the NE/IA border toward 12z.
252 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 One last dry day will finish off the weekend today, and will be a great day to get outside and enjoy the low to mid 60s west of the Plateau. Upper ridge will slowly slide east during the day as the Plains/Midwest trough helps weaken the upper ridge. Still looking at a half inch of rain or less across the area, with the highest amounts west of I-65.
21z surface analysis had low near KSPF with warm front into eastern NE, trough into central WY and into central MT. Bigger picture showed upper trough over southwest Canada into western OR with an upper low over central AB and one just west of OR. Effects of frontal boundaries main concern early on, and then the upper trough. Tonight/Sunday morning, upper trough moves onshore as downstream ridge continues to move east.
/issued 855 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Strong Canadian high pressure will continue to ridge south into Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a very dry airmass persisting through Sunday. Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 30s north to around 50 near the coast from around Tampa Bay southward and then only climb into the lower to middle 70s again on Sunday. Northeast to north winds will remain elevated into Sunday then shift to southeast to south and diminish early in the work week as the pressure gradient relaxes and the high to the north moves out into the Atlantic Ocean. Winds and seas will increase to exercise caution, possibly advisory levels, during midweek as a cold front moves across the waters.
329 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Progressive upper trof moving across the Rockies this morning will force the upper ridge axis ewd, leaving our region under swly flow aloft. Weak impulse ahead of the trof already bringing a few light shwrs to portions of our region early this morning. Sct to perhaps numerous shwrs/isold tstms will develop across the region today as the trof moves closer sending a series of weak impulses ovhd.
253 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over central IL through most of the day Sunday bringing clear skies.
We have trended high temperatures toward the warmer side of guidance, including mid 70s inland and low 70s along the coast.
Expect cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds especially east of Tucson Sunday as a system moves north of the area.
Strong 1039mb Canadian high just north of northern Michigan currently influencing the weather across the lower Ohio Valley. Light northerly to northeasterly winds have kept temperatures cool this afternoon, but completely sunny skies make it "feel" a bit warmer out there. Still expecting another sunny, near cloudless day tomorrow, but with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than where they are today. Clouds will begin increasing Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario southward to the Gulf Coast will continue to dominate the weather across central Illinois through Sunday. while highs on Sunday climb into the lower to middle 50s.
* None A quiet day ahead for southeast Michigan as high pressure ridge begins to build across the Great Plains. A few clouds could be seen earlier this morning streaming around the ridge axis under northwesterly flow aloft, but quickly dissipated with good subsidence and dry air advection moving into the area. High temperatures at most locations will be topping out in the low 40s, which is right around normal for early March. Amplification of the ridge will continue tomorrow as the axis slides into the western Great Lakes. West of the ridge will be a low pressure system originating from the Pacific and it will begin to pivot through the Rocky Mountains. It will remain a cool early March day with temperatures in the lower 40s.
1058 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, a strong ridge is noted spreading across the middle of the Nation with large troughs bookending the ridge across the east and west coasts; though the feature of importance for our weather this coming week is the West Coast trough. The ridge across the Plains States today has brought some warm windy conditions to the Lower Missouri River Valley thanks to abundant sunshine, a tightening pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing.
350 AM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 Prototypical early spring day with stable high pressure in control of the region. Numerical weather output exhibiting a signal that shows center of the ridge axis jumping from Lake Michigan over to the Lake Huron basin today.
/issued 130 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ Upper trough extending from NW US down to Mexico today with a ridge over the SE. This trough will swing across the Rockies overnight and move onto the plains Saturday.
Vigorous upper level short wave trough over the northwest U. A cold front will push through the region Saturday afternoon and early evening bringing north winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts.
Low level mixing and increasing high clouds will keep overnight temperatures a little milder, with readings falling mostly into the low to mid 50s. Broadscale ridging slipping off to the east toward the east coast will result in increasing south winds.
Expect strong southwesterly winds into this evening as a cold front starts to move across the state.
High pressure will provide warm and dry weather through Saturday.
Strong cold front blasts eastward across our counties this evening with strong cold air advection all night. Winds aloft increase to near 45 knots and with downward vertical motion and cold air advection, some locations may approach high wind criteria after cold frontal passage, though we feel the strong winds will be rather isolated, thus have held off on a high wind warning for the overnight. Quite windy and much cooler day in the wake of the cold front and with 700 mb temperatures progged near -6 Celsius, high temperatures will be in the mid 40s at lower elevations west of Interstate 25, with 50s east of I-25.
344 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
The cold front that has brought valley rain and mountain snow has pushed through much of western Montana, and currently making its way across the Continental Divide this afternoon. Locations above 5000 feet east of the Highway 93 corridor will continue to experience light to moderate snowfall reducing visibility for the next couple hours. Valleys will be on the lower end of this range. So several inches of snow can be expected for the higher terrain, above area passes.
An upper ridge over the central Gulf Coast region has held at bay deeper moisture west of the Mississippi River. A strong inversion aloft and increasing southeast flow overnight will result in warmer temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the lower to middle 50s.
When the sun goes down around 635 pm, we should lose the high end of the wind gustiness, but sustained southerly winds overnight still remain high at 20 to 28 mph. Next concern overnight will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the first southern-latitude trough, now exiting the TX panhandle, moves into the region. Moisture will be increasing tonight, along with a slight increase in the low level jet. At the same time, the cold front will begin moving in from the northwest, which will help trigger additional showers/rumbles of thunder from northwest to southeast through the day. Cold front crosses the MO river by 19-20z, and should begin to clear the forecast area to the east by 22-01z.
346 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Models in general agreement with the pattern as a upper level high pushes to the east as a large amplitude trough pushes towards the Mid-South. Late on Saturday the upper level trough splits and closes off a low that is generally south of the area and this stalls precipitation across the Mid-South providing even more than just with the frontal passage assoicated with the upper low trough. However, this closed upper low gets absorbed into the large upper trough and allows even a colder air mass into the area midweek.
226 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend.
System out west (mid level trof) will continue to dig before ejecting northeast across the region on Saturday. A head of the trof there'll be a strong LLJ that will keep winds healthy overnight, thus mild lows. Meanwhile, pressure rises west of the cold front will likely bring some gusty winds to the western cwa late tnt and Saturday, but for now they are forecast to remain below wind advisory criteria.
Mostly a persistence forecast again with high pressure in control.
325 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will extend across the eastern United States through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry and seasonable conditions across central NC tonight. Min temps lower 40s cooler locations to the upper 40s-lower 50s elsewhere. The high pressure system will remain in control of our weather Saturday into Saturday night.
328 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 The main weather story over the next day or so is the upper ridge exiting the Plains and the associated surface cold front sweeping across the region. However, the overall moisture profile is lacking with bouts of dry air either in the low or mid levels. Max temps split MAV/MET, but temps could be underdone depending on sky cover, downsloping winds, and a hint of a weak thermal ridge riding off the Rockies late in the day.
645 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
Surface moisture remains ample with dewpoints in the low 70s, and being limited generally to the lowest 1000 feet or so. Kept temperatures near consensus for highs in the low to mid 90s, but not reaching near any daily records.
350 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected.
Winds will be on the increase as low pressure forms over the Rockies. Last evening soundings still showed a dry airmass from our gulf source region as high pressure over the southeast was keeping the low level flow out of the northeast down there. 5C/Km and lowering freezing levels (11-12KFT), cant rule out a few hail instances.
Strong upper ridge center to hold over the region through Saturday. Stacked ridging to keep temps warm and humid running 3 to 5+ degrees above seasonal averages.
306 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will shift off to the east through the weekend.
Overnight surface and upper air charts reveal a respectable ridge axis through the midwest with 500 MB heights pushing 580+ DM into lower Michigan. High pressure will largely remain in control of northern Michigans weather through tonight.
317 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading into and through the weekend.
This sufficient mixing has also resulted in much warmer afternoon temps so bumped up temperatures a bit above guidance. A strong cold front will march across the area with a noticeable wind shift from southwest to northwest this evening and overnight as it passes through. The northern and central mountains look to pick up about 2 to 4 inches of snow as much colder air moves in behind this cold front and trough passage. The rest of Saturday looks dry and noticeably cooler as northwest flow sets up behind this system.
There will be a slight amplification to the mid level ridge axis extending from the Se US into the ern Great Lakes today as a progressive mid level trough axis moves into the nrn Rockies. The influence of the low level anti cyclone across the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic will sustain very dry air across Se Mi today, while southerly return flow advects a little warmer air mass into Lower Mi. Despite the relatively cold early morning temps, the low level warm air advection under full sun today should boost highs into the low to mid 70s. The southerly gradient will increase tonight as the low level anticylone shifts toward the east coast.
/issued 1030 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ Quick update to remove measurable rain chances today as a decaying upper low exits the Rolling Plains.
Tonight, an upper level trough begins an eastward progression across the Northern Plains. A strong associated cold front will move east ahead of the upper trough into western North Dakota tonight, then into central ND by 06Z Saturday. A series of upper level troughs are forecast to move across the Northern Plains through the extended.
A passing system will bring breezy conditions today and cooler temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.
Scattered activity possible tomorrow as well, but the lack of a specific focus (like today's warm front) does lower confidence levels a bit.
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows lee trough over the Black Hills area, with trailing cold front from eastern MT through central WY. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow over the area, ahead of large trough over the west coast and the Great Basin. Cold front will track across the area during the evening and into the overnight hours, exiting east of the CWA late tonight. Cooler air filtering in will drop lows into the upper 30s and 40s. Much cooler air will be in place across the area for Saturday, with highs only in the 50s and lower 60s.
551 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will shift offshore on Saturday.
As of 19Z Friday afternoon, a broad upper level trough was positioned across the western CONUS. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis continues across eastern CO coupled with a broad surface anticyclone across the southern CONUS has yielded a tight pressure gradient across the CWA. By midday Saturday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the low to middle 60s ahead of the cold front. Good agreement amongst synoptic and hi-res guidance with the position and movement of the cold front through the CWA. 5 C/km associated with the EML surmounting boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will yield MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg. As the front continues its east-southeastward progression, trough-preceding ascent and a strengthening LLJ should encourage an increase in thunderstorm coverage into late afternoon and evening, with convective modes transitioning to quasi-linear segments.
This will result in afternoon heat index values in the lower 90s.
333 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend.
107 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 18Z TAFS Showers and thunderstorms continue to roll in off the gulf around the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the northeastern gulf of Mexico. /issued 405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the area into the early portion of the weekend. Low pressure still forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies Saturday as a potent trough moves across the western US.
An upper-level trough and cold front sweep across the Northern High Plains this evening. Wind continues, veering more to the northwest, through Saturday, as the main trough axis and energy moves over NE Montana, another similar round of light rain showers is expected, mainly near and north of Hwy 2. With the push of much cooler air, highs Saturday should become very close to seasonal norms.
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A weak and dry cold front will continue to traverse the North Country through the overnight hours. Behind the front temperatures will be slightly cooler but high pressure quickly builds back in.
1046 AM PDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Showers and gusty winds can be expected today and tonight as a low pressure system swings through the area.
327 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Mid-level subsidence was firmly in control of the region this afternoon following a compact upper low currently crossing the Wichita Mountains. This trough should assume a weak dryline structure by peak heating just east of the Caprock. Although surface convergence is shown to be rather lackluster, modest height falls with the approaching upper trough could breed a few storms by early afternoon off the Caprock. This ascent will only improve once a cold front dives south from the Panhandle by late afternoon and bolsters convergence within the moist sector. Following Saturday's trough, a protracted period of uneventful NW flow will dominate much of the Great Plains through the upcoming week.