Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps ranges from teh mid 40s to mid 50s across the plains with 30s and 40s in the higher terrain. early evening showers will be possible over the higher elevations of the southern tier with a few showers possibly getting onto the lower elevations around the Trinidad region. Warmer conditions in combination with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times are still anticipated during the longer term. Varying degrees of upper ridging in combination with adequate atmospheric moisture/precipitable water values, the diurnal heating cycle and passing upper disturbances will allow isolated to scattered primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms(generally favoring higher terrain locations) during the balance of the longer term.
Much cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 70s across the north and lower 80s south.
317 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cool weather with periodic shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Changes for the predawn update included further precip probability adjustments for areas east and south of Pittsburgh based on the latest radar trends of showers streaming up the flank of the deep, Great Lakes-to-Lower Mississippi Valley trough. Near term temperature is projected about 10 degrees under the averages given the flanking position on the parent trough and persistent boundary layer moisture/dewpoints.
340 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The weather will be quiet and cool today across our region in a highly amplified weather pattern in between an upper ridge axis along the western CONUS and an upper trough to the east from Quebec south toward the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was oriented along the high plains. A cool airmass remained in place, and pre dawn temperatures averaged in the low 40s in the low/mid 40s, with a few hours of cooling left this morning. Overall pattern will be an upper level ridge over the rockies and plains.
107 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the south- central Gulf of Mexico. A large-scale trough covered much of the central United States, while a weak tropical wave was migrating in the trade-wind belt across the western Caribbean Sea. Weak easterlies prevailed in the lower troposphere, with weak southerlies in the mid troposphere.
405 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Canadian high pressure has settled over the Mid South as an anomalously deep upper level trough continues to dig across the eastern third of the United States. The upper trough should quickly begin to lift out to the northeast by Thursday with upper heights rising over the region. There still remains a rather persistent spread in model tracks over the weekend as Irma nears the western periphery of the western Atlantic ridge and turns poleward in a weakness left behind by the departing upper trough and an approaching weak upper level low over the Mississippi Valley. Considering the upper trough is departing, it introduces higher uncertainty in the eventual track and when Irma makes the northward turn.
230 AM MST Wed Sep 6 2017 Modest moisture levels will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of eastern and central Arizona through the middle of this week.
640 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Expect showers and thunderstorms today and this evening along and ahead of a cold front.
259 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Relatively quiet weather is expected for the next several days as the Southern Plains is forecast to generally remain in northwest to northerly flow aloft with a ridge across the western contiguous United States and a trough across the east.
315 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A strong cold front is in the process of moving through the southern Tennessee Valley early this morning. With time, a mostly clear sky should develop across most of the region by daybreak (12z) as this cooler, drier air mass filters in. Thus, despite a mostly clear sky and plenty of sunshine, highs in the low to mid 70s are expected for most locations later today. This will allow temperatures to plummet in the lower 50s across much of the Valley.
A chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms remains in the Sierra Nevada, especially in the high country for today, as plenty of moisture and instability lingers.
331 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front slowly crosses the local area through this evening. High pressure returns for Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is poised to enter the FA this morning. as trough aloft sharpens through the OH-TN Valleys. Trough aloft is slow to push E through the NE CONUS and mid-Atlantic region Thu night- Fri. Models showing a secondary cold front approaching from the NW by late Fri (which will reinforce the dry/comfortable conditions for the weekend). A secondary cold front crosses the FA Fri night (w/ limited moisture). High temperatures will primarily be in the low/mid 70s with lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s the coast.
240 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows laminar northerly flow over the Plains with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Winds will be very light today due to a ridge overhead at 850mb. Tonight a warmer air mass will be in place, causing lows to be a few degrees warmer than last night.
555 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A strong 553 dm 500 mb low near Sault Ste Marie Canada with a deep upper level trof extending SSW over IL and mid MS river valley will continue influencing IL's weather next couple of days. Strong upper level trof axis shifts east to the IN/OH border early this evening and into the eastern Ohio river valley by daybreak Thu. Lows Thu night mostly in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s near the IN border.
1214 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A quiet weather pattern will prevail over the next several days as the CWA remains in dry northwest flow aloft, on the eastern fringe of upper-level ridging over the western US.
250 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Early this morning, an upper trough was carved out across the eastern half of the country with an upper high/ridge over the west. This upper trough will tend to deepen a bit as another lobe of energy drops south southeast out of northern IL into the Ohio Valley today.
517 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cold front moves east of the Appalachians today. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind the front for the remainder of the week. Cold front is still hung up on the mountains this morning, but should push off well to the east by late morning to early afternoon and showers will come to an end. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier air today, but lots of clouds still today with large field of cold air stratocu developing behind the front with upper trough overhead. Tonight will feel like a cool Fall night with upper 40s for lows in most areas and upper 30s in the higher elevation valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph Counties.
It will also be cool with highs in the low 60s. Forecast largely on track for today as impressive cold pool and sharply curved mid/upper level trough swing through our area. Still only looking at a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE but this is plenty to support numerous showers in passing trough as well as good hail/lightning potential given cold temps aloft. Trough axis pulls eastward by tonight but cool/moist NNW cyclonic flow continues across very warm lakes and this will support lake effect rain showers through the overnight. (Core of thermal trough does depart but 700mb temps remain around -5C for an extended time. High temps should also be a few degrees warmer.
/issued 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017/ Relatively quiet weather is expected for the next several days as the Southern Plains is forecast to generally remain in northwest to northerly flow aloft with a ridge across the western contiguous United States and a trough across the east.
Surface cold front will move into southern AL and FL Big Bend later today with showers and isold storms developing by midday. This evening's surface analysis showed a cold front across central GA and AL, though it was difficult to distinguish between the composite of convective outflow bounaries from the synoptic cold front. However, the thermodynamics still appear supportive of deep moist convection, and Q-G forcing is likely to increase overnight as a strong upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS.
104 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A series of troughs will drop southeast through the region tonight through Thursday.
An area of light rain continues to slide northeastward into CNY/NEPA early this morning, as a deep upper-level trough acts on the diffuse frontal boundary, stalled just east of the forecast area. Highs this afternoon (upper 50s-mid 60s) will be noticeably cooler than recent days, especially over our eastern zones, where rainfall will be the most persistent. Generally cool and unsettled pattern persists under the influence of an upper level trough. To begin the period Thursday morning, low pressure over eastern New England will be moving away however expect a cool, breezy day under mostly cloudy skies with showers redeveloping by midday into the afternoon due to the cool upper trough combined with weak surface heating.
1211 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Aloft: 12Z upr-air data/WV imagery/aircraft winds showed a highly amplified Wrn ridge with an embedded subtropical high. and a trof over the Cntrl/Ern USA. The only minor change thru tomorrow will be further deepening of the Ern trof. Heights will then build around it as the Wrn ridge shifts E. This will isolated the trof from the flow and rotation will bundle. Depending on how this low evolves. So this low will not have much moisture to work with.
Drier and cooler air will be moving in today as the cold front to our east and southeast pulls away.
218 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cold front that was responsible for showers and storms yesterday afternoon into the evening hours continues to push south across the ArkLaMiss region this morning. With the large upper trough still in place over the eastern half of the country, tonight should be very pleasant and a night to open the windows and enjoy the cooler air. Clear skies, light northerly wind, dewpoints in the upper 40s/around 50 all spell overnight lows in the lower 50s north of I-20 and mid 50s south of I-20. /28/ For the beginning of the period a strong fall like amplified trough will begin lifting to the east.
221 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 High pressure will slide farther out to sea this evening, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure returns for Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. Will maintain chc to likely PoPs across the area tonight due to activity along/ahead of a cold front moving into the region. From very later tonight thru Thu, upper level trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and nrn OH valley into PA. This will result in the cold front slowly pushing acrs the local area and offshore very late tonight into Thu morning. The slow movement of the front will allow weak areas of low pressure tracking along the boundary, to pull additional moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build over the region for late Thu thru Fri.
349 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The upper trough will continue its progression eastward across the region today. The trough axis will be centered over the western Great Lakes by mid afternoon as northwesterly flow will continue to push the cold air into Michigan. The higher rain chances in the overnight hours will reside over the Thumb and Lake Huron. Forecast low temperatures to start Thursday morning will be in the mid to upper 40s and high temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
This puts the ridge axis over the western CWA. Tonight with ridge axis in place. expecting temps to drop to the lower to mid 40s by Wednesday morning.
1126 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cool stable post frontal airmass has settled in across the plains where highs have slowly climbed into the lower 70s which is around 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
angling cold fronts our way all summer. We sure are in for an early fall for the next several days with fresh cool high pressure drawn South early by a lingering Harvey. /issued 927 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Cold front, characterized by a line of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind speeds up to 30 MPH continues to race south across the region. /issued 416 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Scattered convection is quickly developing along a cold front that is located from near Mount Vernon, to De Queen, and east-northeast into Central Arkansas.
436 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Much heralded cold front has pushed south of our southern most zones early this morning but there were still a few showers noted across portions of Deep East Texas into west central Louisiana along the elevated 850mb boundary which lags the surface based cold front some 50 miles or so. IR satellite imagery early this morning showing that much of the mid cloud cover in the wake of the cold front across the I-20 Corridor and points north continues to thin as drier air funnels into the region from the north. Northwesterly flow across the Southern Plains into the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley will keep the Gulf of Mexico shut down concerning any kind of moisture return into our region, thus the reasoning behind the very slow moderation in temperatures in the extended periods.
237 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Sharp upper trough extends from southern Ontario into the Ohio Valley with strong northwest flow over the Plains. Meanwhile, lee troughing will strengthen which will allow for temps warming to near seasonal normals by the end of the week. There is still some model agreement in tracking some upper energy out of the northern/central Rockies Thu night into Fri and out across the high Plains. It'll be clear flying across KS thru tomorrow night & likely beyond as high pressure continues to cover all of the Great Plains.
High pressure and warm, dry conditions continue today and tomorrow.
549 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The weather will be quiet and cool today across our region in a highly amplified weather pattern in between an upper ridge axis along the western CONUS and an upper trough to the east from Quebec south toward the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was oriented along the high plains. A cool airmass remained in place, and pre dawn temperatures averaged in the low 40s in the low/mid 40s, with a few hours of cooling left this morning. Overall pattern will be an upper level ridge over the rockies and plains.
An upper trof will slowly move across the Great Lakes area extending southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trof supports a surface cold front, initially across northern AL/GA, moving south into southern AL/GA western FL panhandle later this afternoon.
351 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 High pressure will remain in place over North Central and Southwest Montana today and Thursday, which will lead to warming temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and continued very dry conditions. Overnight low temperatures in valleys and cold prone areas could fall below freezing, with warmer temperatures expected across the plains.
Surface map this evening shows a low centered near Shreveport with a warm front extending northeastward from the low right up through the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee.
A few afternoon cumulus clouds have managed to sustain themselves over the higher terrain as a small bit of moisture lingers in the lower mid-levels behind our departing trough. A large ridge of high pressure will shift eastward over the Four Corners on Thursday. Near full-sun and rising heights aloft will allow for high temperatures around 10 degrees warmer on Thursday, with a few 80 degree readings likely in valley locations in eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
Forecast on track for tonight with high pressure controlling area weather. Generally quiet conditions expected through Thursday night with the next area of low pressure advancing towards the Pacific Northwest.
817 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the lower Missouri and upper Mississippi River valleys. The trough moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight and Thu morning. The resulting pattern would place Upper Mi in a nnw flow between an amplified ridge drifting slowly e into the western Plains and a trough and associated cut-off low developing over the ne CONUS.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes back into the Plains with a storm system over the lower Mississippi Valley.
The 00Z sounding indicated a stable layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere. /issued 354 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ Low pressure currently centered near Texarkana with one warm front along the southern border of Tennessee and a second warm front just south of the Louisiana coast, where it has been anchored all day. Mesoscale models have struggled with convection today, as warm front still has not moved inland.
Cold front making its way esewd should be completely through the region within the next few hours. /issued 701 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, the cold front is nearing KLFK/KSHV and an arc of heavy Thunderstorms from KJAS to KNAT and KMLU. Most sites Texas will be returning to VFR overnight with the low clouds remaining until the cooler air deepens well behind the sfc shift.
A lower- tropospheric layer mean analysis shows the Florida Keys beneath a weak ridge, between a developing large-scale cyclone over the Deep South and a weakening smaller-scale trough over the Bahamas. The dry/stable air associated with the ridge is inhibiting most cumulus convection across the service area this evening. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet in the extreme Gulf of Mexico beyond five fathoms and Hawk Channel, and 3 to 5 feet in the Straits of Florida, with the highest and steepest waves in the Gulf Stream.
/issued 316 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) A fairly strong cold front has moved through the area this afternoon, and resulted in much cooler temperatures across the area, especially the Big Country where readings have been in the 60s for much of the day. Gusty north winds have followed the cold front. The cooler, drier air mass and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the lows experienced across the area Wednesday morning. Skies will be mostly clear, and highs will be cooler for areas generally south of Interstate 20, ranging from the lower 70s north, to near 80 along and south of Interstate 10.
958 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Cold front has moved south of our area. There is still some potential for severe storms over this area where the higher CAPE, stronger shear, deeper moisture, and weaker cap are located. Have removed POPs behind the cold front, currently along a Taylor to Austin to Bandera to Del Rio line, as drier and stable airmass filters into our area. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the northern plains to southern New Mexico. The upper level trough will swing across Texas and the flow will become northwesterly. The cold front will have passed through our area by the beginning of the period.
May start needing to clear out svr tstm watch 192 in the next hour or two as this trend progresses and the cold front moves across the area. Warm front convection has just skirted southern tier of cwa, with most of it south of area. However, broken line of storms associated with stg cold front movg across ne TX. Dry conditions thru remainder of fcst beginning late tonight as stg upper ridging over western conus. At this time, a warm front has aided in the development of a complex of scattered -SHRA/-TSRA across central LA, and another complex of storms near an old outflow boundary were noted near ktxk and keld just north of kshv. Computer models hint at a more prominent line of storms developing along a strong cold front, later this afternoon through early-mid evening, that will affect all TAF sites.
701 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 For the ArkLaTex, the cold front is nearing KLFK/KSHV and an arc of heavy Thunderstorms from KJAS to KNAT and KMLU. Most sites Texas will be returning to VFR overnight with the low clouds remaining until the cooler air deepens well behind the sfc shift.
High pressure will remain in control early in the TAF period with winds less than 10 KTs. the high will be shifting east with a cold front approaching from the west.
VFR to persist through Thursday as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region. Fair weather will persist as a strong high pressure ridge aloft continues building-in from the west.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the pacnw and will continue to provide a mostly clear night with dry conditions.
The upper- level ridge of high pressure is moving over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies regions, bringing a northerly to north- westerly flow aloft to our area. Our cloudiness is from the Pacific moisture being directed up and around the ridge top. As the ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen as it moves more toward the east over us, expect skies to remain mostly clear with daily fair-weather cumulus possible, but not with very much extent.
Stronger northeast winds associated with a cold front will move into the area around 06z. /issued 107 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures behind it.
Storms have weakened considerably as the main surface boundary has already moved out to the east, and cooler, drier air is moving in from the north. Combination of trough exiting the fa and loss of heating should result in dry conditions by or close to sunset. Slight cooling with boundary passage so temperatures a few degrees cooler than last night. Quiet period ahead as high pressure builds into the fa tomorrow. Column warms, especially in the afternoon so areas along and west of the valley could see highs around 70 with a bit cooler to the east. The period begins with the upper level ridge over the High Plains and continuing to shift east over the Dakotas.
Upper level ridge of high pressure will drift east across the Northern Rockies and MT through Thursday evening for mainly clear skies and VFR conditions. Fair weather will persist as a strong high pressure ridge aloft continues building-in from the west.
The weather pattern will begin transitioning as a deepening trough and attendant surface front approach the central Gulf, acting to chip away at the mid/upper level ridging that has helped keep the local atmosphere suppressed over the past 24 hours. Low temperatures will be a degree or two higher than last night, upper 60s to around 70 most locales save for the immediate coast where it will be slightly warmer due to the weak onshore flow. Presence of lingering high pressure will allow for favorable open water boating into Thursday morning.
Sub-freezing overnight lows are forecast across the southwest. Upper level ridging really begins to build over the forecast area Thursday.
702 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Storms have weakened considerably as the main surface boundary has already moved out to the east, and cooler, drier air is moving in from the north. Combination of trough exiting the fa and loss of heating should result in dry conditions by or close to sunset. Slight cooling with boundary passage so temperatures a few degrees cooler than last night. Quiet period ahead as high pressure builds into the fa tomorrow. Column warms, especially in the afternoon so areas along and west of the valley could see highs around 70 with a bit cooler to the east. The period begins with the upper level ridge over the High Plains and continuing to shift east over the Dakotas.