Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This low pressure is anchored on a stationary sfc boundary draped across the eastern Dakotas. This low will continue tracking north northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon into northeast sections of SD. A tight pressure gradient will begin to set up across our western zones as the low tracks northeast. A much cooler air mass will move in tonight and persist through Tuesday. Much below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected. Parts of the area will see more instability type showers through the day in the cooler air mass regime. Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Low pressure will continue to churn across the region tonight.
Therefore, we are going to leave the higher precipitation chances for now. The rest of the work week looks warmer and mostly dry as a weak upper level ridge builds over the area.
Continued surface ridging will keep winds, outside of convection, less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 68 92 69 / 0 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 61 88 62 / 10 10 0 10 20.
Continued surface ridging will keep winds, outside of convection, less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 68 92 69 / 30 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 61 88 62 / 10 10 0 10 20.
An upper level low over Oregon will continue to move southeast tonight.
719 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
Evening Update A little warmer tonight across the Mid-South with readings in the 70s.
Recent large upper level ridge of high pressure that has brought each dry, breezy and warm day over the holiday weekend is expected to remain in place tonight and Tuesday. With the ridge in place we expect another rainfree day, with plenty of sunshine.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 68 92 69 / 0 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 67 90 68 / 0 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 66 90 67 / 0 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 61 88 62 / 0 10 0 10 20.
This low pressure is anchored on a stationary sfc boundary draped across the eastern Dakotas. This low will continue tracking north northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon into northeast sections of SD. A tight pressure gradient will begin to set up across our western zones as the low tracks northeast. A much cooler air mass will move in tonight and persist through Tuesday. Much below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected. Parts of the area will see more instability type showers through the day in the cooler air mass regime. Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Strong low pressure system will continue moving through the area this afternoon and evening.
A cool surface airmass over the Northern Plains will drive a cold front across central Kansas late Today and This Evening, impinging on much higher theta-e air over the lower plains of central Kansas. Severe convection is expected develop along the front from Iowa southwest into the lower Missouri valley and then into central Kansas. The cold front will likely be just to the immediate southeast of the DDC forecast area by late Tuesday afternoon and evening, limiting the area for potential severe weather.
Otherwise, we will see northwest winds continue today in the cooler, drier post-frontal airmass. Wouldnât even be surprised to see our typical cooler spots (Valley and Dawson counties) briefly dip into the upper 30s.
Dewpoints have also been rather tricky with the drier airmass behind the cold front but there is still some lingering moisture from storms and right in the vicinity of the cold front. Aloft the main low continues to work its way northeast as a secondary lobe of energy off to the west works its way east and the overall large trof begins to lift. Expect cooler temps tomorrow with highs in the 70s and continued southwest flow aloft. Flow aloft becomes more zonal on Wednesday as what is left of the western trof lifts and moves through the area. Highs will be cooler still and only in the 60s! It will be a rather cool and cloudy day with scattered showers across the area.
Less wind on Tuesday into the mid week period as a ridge of high pressure builds in should leave critical fire weather more localized. As this ridge breaks down late in the week these conditions may return. The forecast area remained under a broad mid-level low pressure trough today. Steep lapse rates, early sunshine and a weak disturbance moving through the base of the trough were responsible for moist convection over the mountains and the northwest Colorado Plateau.
The current forecast has the morning shower and storm chances diminishing towards late morning and early afternoon and then thunderstorm chances increase again as storms develop along the cold front generally along a line from Fairfield Iowa to Freeport Illinois. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but could be cooler if more in the way of lingering precip/clouds is realized. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s in the NW quarter of the CWA to upper 50s and low 60s elsewhere. Key Messages: 1) More comfortable and cooler mid-week with a chance for showers, mainly south. less humid and comfortable conditions are forecast with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s, as high pressure begins nudging into the area.
High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight with only isolated chances of showers/thunderstorms across the high terrain. Discussion: An upper level ridge currently sits across the Southern Appalachians this morning resulting in tranquil weather conditions. The SW/NE oriented upper level ridge will remain situated across the region today into tonight. Differential heating along the high terrain could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Daytime highs will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with upper 80s common across most locations. Temperatures will be mild with lows ranging from the low to upper 60s.
Current upper level analysis shows a ridge centered near the Appalachian Mountains and a trough encompassing nearly half of the western US. A slither of that ridge will try to expand southwestward across northern LA and into Texas over the next couple days. At the same time, tropical moisture will be pass across the Bahamas to the western Gulf of Mexico on the south side of the ridge.
319 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week.
Of course, much uncertainty remains for the end of the week into the weekend as the timing and location of possible low pressure development remains to be seen.
430 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level pressure ridge stretches east southeastward from the southeastern United States and out into the Atlantic. A nearly zonal subtropical jet is overhead and runs along the southern periphery of an upper level trough near the Georgia and South Carolina coast. Satellite and radar imagery indicates the best associated zone of lift is now situated east of our area and is correlated with a weak lower level trough over the Bahamas. Forecast - Over the next couple days the lower level ridge will remain fairly stationary as it weakens slightly. The upper level trough will settle a bit further to the southeast and the overhead jet will remain in place and continue to fan out over the Bahamas.
Surface analysis early this morning depicts a low located over the eastern Dakotas/northwest Minnesota with a cold front stretched southward from there into the central Plains states. The low will continue to lift north into Ontario today as the cold front works east, approaching the middle Mississippi River Valley by this evening. Mid-level ridging is in place over the eastern CONUS, with southwest flow positioned aloft. The severe weather timing looks to be from early evening through just after midnight with the higher threat being along and west of the I-55 corridor. The cold front looks to wash out some going into Wednesday.
355 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep dry and warm weather in our region today. A Wednesday cold front will likely bring showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Eastern CONUS ridging remains in place today, resulting in continued dry weather.
307 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Dry and very warm conditions will continue today as high pressure moves east.
The low from our stormy weekend will begin to fill today, but as it does so winds will increase quite a bit across the Northland in response to the large pressure gradient. In addition to wind, there will be a little bit of residual weak instability left as secondary and much weaker fronts rotating around the low cross today. This will spark shower activity across the Arrowhead during the day, but these shouldnât bring much precipitation though will help mix down some of the higher winds aloft giving gusty showers. After this low departs and the winds lull, the remainder of the week looks very, very quiet.
Cooler weather is then expected during the second half of the week. In Trinity county temperatures in the valleys were running only a few degrees warmer than last night and with lighter winds it looks like frost is possible in some of the colder spots. Northwest flow aloft was occurring across the EKA CWA this afternoon in response to a large trough over the Intermountain West/Great Plains, and an upstream ridge over the NERN PAC. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge is forecast to advance eastward across the West Coast during the next 24-48 hours.
152 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
Broad H500 trough, with multiple closed lows (one over the Northern and Central Plains, and the second over the Pacific Northwest), was in place across much of the Western CONUS/Canada this afternoon. Over Southwest through North Central Montana beneath this large H500 trough, winds throughout the column were predominately out of the north to northeast, which continued to support orographically enhanced precipitation along east and north facing slopes. 75" over the higher terrain of Southwest Montana.
This ridging will likely stifle shower and thunderstorm development somewhat this afternoon, with the most likely PoPs across Florida with the afternoon seabreeze. High temperatures today are forecast mostly in the low 90s, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few locations further inland reach the mid 90s.
(Today) As a trough lifts out of the Northern Plains, it will run into the southern Appalachian ridge that is amplified up through the Great Lakes. This interaction will make the ridge retrograde and extend back into the Southern Plains. Despite the ridge in place, won't rule out a few showers or thunderstorms mainly northeast AL with the strong sfc heating and moisture in place, but kept POPs silent at this time.
These storms should be once again mostly shallow with minimal accumulation since we will still have dry air and high pressure aloft and will move through pretty quickly. Highs will once again be generally in the low 90s areawide Tuesday afternoon and lows will remain in the 70s Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
1248 AM MST Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will result in continued dry conditions along with a warming trend through the rest of the week.
Deep layer ridging will prevail across the region today and tonight. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 92 69 88 / 10 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 67 90 68 86 / 10 10 10 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 90 67 86 / 10 10 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 88 62 82 / 10 0 10 20 60.
An upper ridge will expand north of the area on Tuesday with a weak upper trough remaining over the area. The combination of the trough, increasing deep layer moisture and daytime heating will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Rain chances decrease on Wednesday as the upper ridge expands over the area.
Slightly warmer temperatures and locally breezy conditions are expected for the day today as a result.
Moisture continues to build across the area with high pressure to our east. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 90s.
331 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Less active weather is expected across the area for the next several days and high temperatures should be cooler. Water vapor satellite loop early this morning showed a strong closed low over northwest MN and another weaker system back over NV and UT.
1232 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The hot and fair weather pattern with breezy south to southeasterly winds will continue into midweek as 500 mb ridging slides westward and strengthens across central Texas into and through Tuesday.
The mid to upper level subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over Texas. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South Central Texas. There could be enough lift in the low level flow to generate some light rain over the Coastal Plains before noon today, but any rain will be spotty and light.
316 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 An upper ridge remains over the Mid-South this morning. The ridge is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. On Wednesday, the ridge will weaken enough that most of the CAMS are showing shower and thunderstorm development occurring during the afternoon and evening hours across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee. Overnight Wednesday night, the ridge will continue to be shunted to the Gulf Coast allowing a cold front to approach the area.
Lows tngt wl range fm the 60s to the lower 70s, with highs on Tue climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
/issued 946 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022/ A little warmer tonight across the Mid-South with readings in the 70s. While another warm and dry day is expected on Tuesday, rain chances will return to the forecast on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Currently, an upper level ridge remains in place over much of the eastern U. The ridge will remain in place through Wednesday morning. A cold front will approach the Mid-South from the northwest on Wednesday.
Stacked low remains near Lake Winnipeg through the week into the weekend, with zonal flow/flat ridge across the forecast area.
Isolated showers and storms will remain possible through the morning hours as the main center of the low pressure system shifts off to the east gradually.
A cold front will be the focus of storms today with very heavy rainfall expected just north of the front and areas south and eastward.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge over the eastern third of the country this morning will move slowly east today as an upper low remains over the northwest part of the country. The upper low will be over the Plains and upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night. The cold front in the Plains will move into northwest Arkansas Wednesday.
114 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Aviation - Severe storms possible Tuesday Evening - An upper high centered over the central Appalachians this evening will maintain dry and warm conditions across the central Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday, but troughing advances east with an upper low moving into southern central Canada, flattening the upper high and driving a cold front through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
311 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week.
A deep surface cyclone over northwest MN will move to northwest ON this evening. By 8 PM, the associated cold front will likely be positioned west of the forecast area--roughly extending from the central U. --Rain chances Wed and Thu-- The cold front should largely clear the CWA by 12z Wed. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest late in the period, likely accompanied by a broken line of SHRA/TSRA. Thunderstorms are expected this evening with the arrival of a cold front.
An upper-level ridge persists over the area, keeping skies mostly clear. A cold front will progress through the area on Tuesday. A low chance of isolated pre-frontal convection exists Tuesday afternoon, but the main convective initiation appears likely Tuesday evening in closer proximity to the cold front. Storm chances on Wednesday also share some uncertainty due to the placement of the cold front after Tuesday night.
A complex and stubborn trough that has been parked over the Great Basin for the last several days begins to move away from the region on Tuesday. One final s/wv will rotate through the trough position tomorrow, brushing the Utah border in the afternoon.
Looking to Wednesday, decrease in PoP chances under mostly sunny skies and general NNE/NE-ly winds as mid-lvl high begins to break down under a broad ridge while a weak mid lvl low deepens off the eastern Florida Coast.
334 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
305 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 An upper-level ridge to the east and broad trough to the west places southwesterly flow aloft just west of the CWA. High pressure will continue to keep skies mostly clear today with dry weather continuing. Low pressure is moving northeastward into Canada from Minnesota, and will stall out in northern Ontario as it occludes. The cold front associated with this system will break off and slowly weaken as it drifts eastward midweek. Fueled by Gulf moisture streaming northward through Texas, the cold front will produce showers and storms from northwestern Texas to Michigan today.
As a result, temps thus far have barely reached into the lower 80s across the western interior of the U. Temps over the east half have also stayed cool thanks to the mid-high level clouds and cooler moderating southerly flow downwind of Lake Mi. Expect lower to mid 70s highs over the eastern interior the rest of the afternoon with cooler 60s readings along the Lake Mi shore. Adjusted high temps slightly cooler accordingly.
NE Montana will continue to have gusty north to NW winds with the circulation from this low today along with varying levels of clouds. High pressure will bring light winds to the area tonight.
346 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure remains over the region today, but can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm around peak heating this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Wednesday, as a cold front pushes through the region and a few storms could be severe. Ridge of high pressure will remain over the NE U. Forecast sounding are showing very dry air aloft and a strong cap at H700, as an EML plume slides around the ridge and into New England by this evening. However, with strong diurnal heating and with the ridge starting to flatten some by late in the day, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm popping up.
1215 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Deep high pressure will extend across North Carolina through mid week.
Strong high pressure ridging is positioned over much of the eastern CONUS, with the axis of the ridge to the immediate east of Georgia. At the surface, broad high pressure is currently positioned just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across the north and central Georgia.
Warming trend through mid-week, then cooler with a chance of rain over the weekend. Warming trend is still forecast to peak on Wednesday as the ridge moves overhead.
309 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
929 PM PDT Mon May 30 2022 Warmer weather is on tap through midweek as a weak ridge moves over the Southwest, weakening the onshore flow and shrinking the marine layer. Another upper level trough develops toward the end of the week, with cooler weather and more marine clouds into the weekend. The upper level trough that brought us the cool and cloudy conditions will continue push east, with an ridge building in behind it.
Tonight into Tuesday, mid and upper level ridging strengthens slightly as the center of the 500 mb ridge drifts westward.
1255 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep dry and warm weather in our region today. A Wednesday cold front will likely bring showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Quiet weather continues through tonight with high pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft. Eastern CONUS ridging remains in place through Tuesday, resulting in continued dry weather. Will maintain sub-15 PoPs for now, with the exception of the higher terrain of eastern Tucker County, where a stray storm cannot be ruled out. A cold front will then settle in from the north during the afternoon and evening, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
241 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances this afternoon/evening shifted further south and east - Cooler and mostly dry conditions for next few days Latest satellite water vapor imagery has a low pressure system rotating over eastern North Dakota. A surface cold front stretches from central Minnesota curving back into eastern Nebraska as depicted by surface observations. MUCAPE values could exceed 3000 J/kg for these areas ahead of the cold front by this afternoon. In wake of the cold frontal passage, cooler temperatures are likely to prevail through the week. Winds will then continue to become more westerly heading into the afternoon hours then even northwesterly this evening as a cold front exits the region.
This low pressure is anchored on a stationary sfc boundary draped across the eastern Dakotas. This low will continue tracking north northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon into northeast sections of SD. A tight pressure gradient will begin to set up across our western zones as the low tracks northeast. A much cooler air mass will move in tonight and persist through Tuesday. Much below normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected. Parts of the area will see more instability type showers through the day in the cooler air mass regime.
125 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Deep high pressure will extend across North Carolina through mid week.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to circulate to our east as both temperatures and dew points slowly increase.
153 AM PDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will build through mid-week which will allow a warming trend to develop across the region. A trough will approach the west coast later this weekend which could result in another round of increased winds, some cooling, and a chance for scattered showers.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday with a slow moving cold front.
314 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Key Messages: - Flood threat continues today and tonight - Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening Discussion: Showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and taper off this morning as the low-level jet weakens diurnally, although the rain chance never really diminishes completely as several outflow boundaries and a synoptic boundary drape across the region. Storm mode will quickly become messy due to the number of updrafts and lack of steering off the boundary, and especially as the low-level jet increases again tonight.
1257 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A broad longwave trough will continue to keep west Texas under southwest flow aloft. A surface cold front will drop into the Panhandle late tonight, while a low-level jet will ramp up as well.
A weak upper level ridge is building into the region today, bringing drier and warmer conditions to the area. This ridge will remain in place on Wednesday resulting in warmer temperatures over inland areas.