Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cloud cover is slowly advancing eastward into the CWA early this evening in advance of a system and associated cold front well off to our west. However, a trough digging over the upper Mississippi Valley, with an occluding low over the western Great Lakes, pushes a cold front towards us tonight. Given the clouds and continued mixing, low temperatures will be warmer than during recent mornings, with readings up to 10 degrees above normal. This will help to enhance precipitation totals in areas east of Pittsburgh, especially along the ridges.
Expect the coldest overnight lows (lower/mid teens) east of the Highway 83 corridor in KS where skies are most likely to remain clear. However, if mid/upper ceilings are sufficiently opaque and persist through sunrise, lows in eastern CO may level off in the lower/mid 20s. Large scale mid/upper level trough extends across the central US, with amplified mid/upper level ridging in place across the far Western US. Tonight-Saturday: The upper level trough shifts eastward and the western US ridge begins to transition eastward. High temps on Saturday will be warmer in the 50s, and if we have more clearing it is possible we may reach seasonal normals (lower 60s).
All locations are expected to fall below freezing by dawn.
1258 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
859 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A chilly night is on tap across central and southeast Illinois as cold air continues to spill across the region in the wake of last night's cold front. Persistent cloud cover and breezes should keep the bottom from falling out on temperatures, but a few locations will likely see near freezing temperatures by morning.
906 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Several mesonet sites across mainly western Oklahoma are at or below freezing early this evening. Even with a gentle northwest wind, temperatures will fall well below freezing tonight with at least 10 more hours of no insolation. All locations are expected to fall below freezing by dawn.
1148 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A chilly night is on tap across central and southeast Illinois as cold air continues to spill across the region in the wake of last night's cold front. Persistent cloud cover and breezes should keep the bottom from falling out on temperatures, but a few locations will likely see near freezing temperatures by morning.
1211 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will crest over the area overnight then move east of the region on Saturday.
Cold front and associated shower activity moving slightly faster through the region, with heavier showers moving out of the KCKV area.
Precipitation has been forming just behind a cold front that is currently moving slowly across the area. Cloud cover will continue to slowly overspread the area this evening, as a cold front approaches from the west. A strong cold front was over central Kentucky at mid afternoon, moving southeast. Temperatures ahead of the front were mostly in the 70s in the JKL forecast area, but were only in the lower 40s over western Kentucky at the same time. The elevation factor becomes more important on Saturday night, as temperatures at higher elevations in the southeast part of the state fall below freezing. That being the case, the higher elevations may see not just snow, but also light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
/Issued 339 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ An upper trough will push east across the Panhandles tonight and a second upper trough will track east across the forecast area Sunday.
Will see showers decrease this evening, but should see isolated to scattered snow showers linger at times over the higher terrain through the night.
A large upper low and trough will move onto the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight and into the southwest U.
Very difficult TAF forecast tonight with a cold front anticipated to move into the region, but stall somewhere in the vicinity of both ALI and VCT site through Sunday morning and into the afternoon.
/00Z TAFS/ Moist and humid conditions continue in the boundary layer; will reflect some concerns that patchy fog could form in the overnight hours as model winds turning northerly this evening do not look convincing enough to clear out the low moisture. A Pacific cold front is pushing across the southern Edwards Plateau and then over the Hill Country next hour.
Currently still expected snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches possible in most valleys across northeast and central Nevada with the highest amounts expected in passes and summits.
718 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 A strong U/L ridge persists over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula creating large scale subsidence over the region. with around 80 to the lower 80s near the coast.
The highest total was at Wahpeton, of about 8. West winds and a bit warmer Sunday. With increased sunshine for at least the first half of the week and temperatures peaking near freezing, will likely see increased snow melt.
/issued 302 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ After the short wave trough currently affecting the region moves east tonight, another will be hot on its heels for Sunday afternoon. A low level thermal ridge will intersect the strongest 500mb winds north of the FA in the central Panhandle.
The convection was ahead of a cold front which will also gradually move east across AR this evening through tonight. Winds will be south at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph ahead of the cold front, while behind it, west to northwest 5 to 15 mph.
545 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Progressive clearing is expected this evening from central into eastern Kansas in the subsidence region behind the departing upper trof. Another upper trof diving southeast from the Pacific Northwest will move across the Rockies tonight and turn eastward over the Plains during Sunday.
The freezing line has been slow to move northwest this afternoon with parts of north central Kansas seeing wintery precipitation through the afternoon. As this main mid-level trough continues to move north and east of Kansas, all precipitation should be northeast of the area by early evening leaving dry conditions through mid-week. Lows tonight drop into the low to mid 20s.
The local evening sounding shows winds remain east to southeast through the low and mid levels, but speeds have diminished through much of that depth from twelve hours ago. That downward trend is even more evident on the sounding from our neighbors in the southern mainland, so we expect that to continue nearby overnight and moreso through Sunday morning as high pressure settles southward.
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue through this afternoon into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
521 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad trough of low pressure extended from eastern Montana south into western New Mexico. Downstream of the central CONUS trough, high pressure was anchored over southern Florida with a ridge extending from the southeastern states into the upper Mississippi valley. Across the Central and High Plains, a trough of low pressure extended from the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. Guidance came in some 10 degrees warmer than what we we're previously forecasting, so will follow the lead of the guidance and push those high temperatures up. AS soon as the sun broke out today, temperatures rapidly rose into the mid 30s, which was ~5 degrees warmer than anticipated.
As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is lifting northward across the region. Breezy westerly winds could cause patchy blowing and drifting snow, mainly in the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills on Sunday.
532 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 /0Z TAFS/ Cold front has pushed through all TAF locations early this evening. Areas that see the clear skies and light winds will see overnight temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Areas to the east will see overnight temperatures in the low 40s.
Otherwise, dry and modestly warmer the next couple of days.
903 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 As the cold front continues to push south and east this evening taking the heavy rainfall threat with it, have removed all of Northeast Texas and extreme Northwest Louisiana from the Flash Flood Watch which includes Marshall and Carthage, Texas as well as the Shreveport and Bossier City metro area of Louisiana. /issued 611 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ For the ArkLaTex, cold front stretches from KPSN to KSHV to KTXK and still some showers right behind the sfc boundary for KGGG, but most of the stronger convection is near KELD and moving E at 40KT.
Strong upper ridge over the area supporting warm surface conditions.
Light snow returns to the Continental Divide later tonight and Dry and windy this afternoon across most of the region in the wake of exiting upper trough, with some areas of blowing snow over the higher terrain of the Central Mountains. Expecting mainly light snow with this system, with perhaps some accums in the 3-6 inch range over the highest peaks in the Sawatch Range and eastern San Juans. Trough will keep winds breezy in spots overnight and through the day Sunday at many locations, though speeds should be slightly less than Saturday.
441 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 The next fast-moving trough is spreading high clouds across northeast UT and northwest CO late this afternoon. This trough was strengthening over the Great Basin with a strong jet rounding the bottom of the trough and providing good uplift over NE UT. Most of the area will be under the moist and unstable area between the 700 mb and 500 mb trough between midnight and 6 AM.
554 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 An upper level trough is spreading across the Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the trough large scale lift resulted in yet another round of widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall developing across the region this morning into this afternoon. This risk will still be on the low side in south central Missouri as the better instability remains to the south.
657 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Update to cancel the rest of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Therefore, have cancelled the rest of the High Wind Warning. /issued 220 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ An upper trough is over the lee of the Rockies with the base of the trough over the CWA. Strong winds at the base of the trough are mixing downward towards the surface resulting in high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains. The upper trough will lift northeastward and another trough from the Pacific Northwest will move over the region on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be as warm or warmer than today with downslope warming taking place.
/issued 220 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ An upper trough is over the lee of the Rockies with the base of the trough over the CWA. Strong winds at the base of the trough are mixing downward towards the surface resulting in high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains. The upper trough will lift northeastward and another trough from the Pacific Northwest will move over the region on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be as warm or warmer than today with downslope warming taking place.
318 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 The next fast-moving trough is spreading high clouds across northeast UT and northwest CO late this afternoon. This trough was strengthening over the Great Basin with a strong jet rounding the bottom of the trough and providing good uplift over NE UT. Most of the area will be under the moist and unstable area between the 700 mb and 500 mb trough between midnight and 6 AM.
611 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 For the ArkLaTex, cold front stretches from KPSN to KSHV to KTXK and still some showers right behind the sfc boundary for KGGG, but most of the stronger convection is near KELD and moving E at 40KT.
652 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Update to cancel the rest of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Therefore, have cancelled the rest of the High Wind Warning. /issued 220 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ An upper trough is over the lee of the Rockies with the base of the trough over the CWA. Strong winds at the base of the trough are mixing downward towards the surface resulting in high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains. The upper trough will lift northeastward and another trough from the Pacific Northwest will move over the region on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be as warm or warmer than today with downslope warming taking place.
A passing trough will bring increasing clouds, breezy westerly winds and a slight chance for snow showers along Arizona's northern border overnight tonight.
Flight weather should remain good with vfr conditions continuing through approximately the first half of the forecast period while the terminals await the arrival of a cold front. Kept mvfr conditions in place through mid to late morning behind the frontal boundary but drier westerly low level flow behind the front should help to mix out the lower ceilings with a return to vfr conditions by early afternoon.
Fog could become dense in a few locations and with low temperatures expected to be below freezing, a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses could become a concern.
A passing trough will bring increasing clouds, breezy westerly winds and a chance for snow showers along Arizona's northern border overnight tonight.
709 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 High pressure sets up over the tri-state area today, following this morning's system.
The rain showers will linger into the night, but as the system pushes farther east on Monday, high pressure will briefly prevail over central Indiana.
940 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A deep trough has invaded the northern Rockies and will provide a cooler day today. Snow has been mixing in along some of our foothill locations like Red Lodge overnight with falling precipitation and weak upslope flow allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 30s. Shower chances will continue today across much of the area as cyclonic flow remains over the region and weak upslope flow persists in the lower levels. Showers will be on the decrease this evening as an upper ridge moves inland over the Pac NW causing heights to rise and advecting drier air over the region.
Cold tonight with temperatures around freezing central and below freezing west.
Light northerly winds this morning will slowly become southerly by around 00z in advance of an upper level trough. Light northerly winds today will slowly turn back out of the south by tonight in advance of an approaching upper level trough (the same one that will absorb Nate in about 24 hours). Plenty of atmospheric moisture will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on Monday with the greatest chance of rain being across acadiana due to even more moisture wrapping around an upper level ridge off the eastern US. Guidance has been back and forth as to the evolution of the frontal system associated with the aforementioned trough and this morning's guidance remains just as inconsistent.
1058 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Weak high pressure moving into the Northeastern U.
Should be a temporary break in precip chances later tonight and Monday as weak high pressure moves in behind the remnants of Nate.
In the low levels, high pressure is centered over Montana, with cool/dry air advection. The gradient and clouds will remain overnight which will kept temperatures from getting too cold, however as the high moves to the south, and any jet level cloud cover migrates southwards as well, we will face ideal radiational conditions.
Upper flow will transition into more of a storm track from the southwest early in the week, as the trough currently over eastern Washington digs southeast and sharpens.
Slightly warmer high temperatures are expected than yesterday. This allows a cold front to surge southeastward toward Central Texas by late afternoon as a prefrontal trough drifts east into Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau areas late morning into afternoon. High temperatures will be even warmer Monday as these features approach our area.
741 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Aviation Despite the passage of a cold front last evening, warm weather will continue the next couple days with highs well into the 70 and mostly sunny skies.
Broad upper trough was noted across the northern CONUS and Canada this morning, with a 140kt upper jet knifing southeast from the Gulf of Alaska onto the Washington coast. Jet will dive toward the southern Rockies overnight, deepening upper trough in the central Rockies.
1009 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Morning water vapor loop showed the mid/upper level trough digging south into the Great Basin, with the main vorticity maximum located over western MT/northern ID. Upper trough will amplify into Utah by this afternoon with large scale ascent increasing over the CWA between 21-06Z. However, with the trough quickly moving southeastward through the night, the best forcing will move into Colorado by 09Z with precip beginning to let up. Since 2-4 inches are expected over the higher terrain ridges (5000-5500 feet) outside of the Valley, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for all plains zones across southeast Wyoming, in addition to Banner/Kimball counties in the Panhandle. Will keep the Pine Ridge out of a highlight for now with generally 2-3 inches possible.
521 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Upper level analysis has a large trof digging through the northern Rockies. At the surface, the cold front has moved through the entire CWA, with winds out of the west to northwest. Upper trough will continue to dig south along the spine of the Rockies, with the main energy of this system remaining just to the west and south of the area. The upper trof will continue to shift east on Monday, with very light precipitation ending during the morning across far south central SD. Clear and cold conditions are expected Monday night, with freezing temperatures across the entire area. Upper ridging takes over for mid week with mostly sunny skies expected and temperatures rebounding into the 60s by midweek. Another strong trof will develop across the Pacific Northwest later in the week.
Upper trough will amplify into Utah by this afternoon with large scale ascent increasing over the CWA between 21-06Z. However, with the trough quickly moving southeastward through the night, the best forcing will move into Colorado by 09Z with precip beginning to let up. Since 2-4 inches are expected over the higher terrain ridges (5000-5500 feet) outside of the Valley, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for all plains zones across southeast Wyoming, in addition to Banner/Kimball counties in the Panhandle. Will keep the Pine Ridge out of a highlight for now with generally 2-3 inches possible.
Temperatures will trend several degrees cooler for the second half of the week. A developing trough is dropping southward toward the Great Basin area, with a dry frontal boundary to pass through central California today. Breezy conditions will increase today and temperatures will run a few degrees cooler than yesterday as the trough continues to move south.
612 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area early today. Tonight, northern stream short wave trough moves into central and western ND by late at night, with a southern stream trough near the four corners area. For lows, liked the way some of the bias corrected values as well as the GEM picked up on warmer readings than previous forecasts along and west of I 29 due to thick cloud cover.
Temperatures will be below normal thanks to an upper trough over the western states. TFJ Latest 00z models show a deepening upper trough over the western U. Radiative cooling will lead to cold temperatures with overnight lows falling below freezing for most of northeast Montana. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s on Monday with a developing light south wind, though remain below average with the upper trough remaining an influence across the region.
Southeast to south winds will increase to between 10 and 15 knots with some higher gusts by midday and continue into late afternoon Breezy southerly winds will gradually diminish today as TS Nate moves further away from the region and high pressure begins to build back in from the east.
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Another nice fall day is expected across the region today as temperatures climb into the lower 70s with generally light northeasterly winds. Expect a weak cold front to stall across our northwestern counties by late afternoon.
Next surge of low level clouds evident over southern Canada, associated with colder air behind a cold front which is nearing the US/Canadian border. Cold tonight with temperatures around freezing central and below freezing west.
Showers will still linger behind the low through the day, before mostly ending Monday night.
Though mid and high level clouds were spreading northward across southeast IL from remnants of tropical storm Nate which is a 999 mb low pressure over west central AL. Upper flow will transition into more of a storm track from the southwest early in the week, as the trough currently over eastern Washington digs southeast and sharpens.
Observations across Alabama show wind gusts in the 25 to 40 knot range at times east of the low level center of Nate, so wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range still appear possible in the wind advisory area later this afternoon and evening as Nate races by. As far as temperatures and precip chances, latest surface observations show an inverted trough in place across the western part of the forecast area, with winds in northwest counties out of the northeast ushering in much cooler air and lower dewpoints than any guidance shows.
generally from Buchanan to Blue Ridge and north. 41 Despite being in the wake of TS Nate, several rounds of showers and storms can be expected through midweek given broad upper trough to the west allowing the CWA susceptible to weak impulses traversing the flow and a lingering moist environment.
Nate has finally made landfall along the Gulf Coast this morning and while we have experienced a fairly drastic change in airmass (dew points in the low 70s), rainfall totals so far have been relatively low.
/issued 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ A return to southerly flow will allow for steady warm-up and moistening ahead of upper trough and stronger cold front, currently progd for Monday afternoon through Monday night. This will be associated with thermal trough Monday night as it sweeps eastward over Kansas and northern portions of Oklahoma.
An upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest early this morning will dig southeast into the four corners region by 12Z Mon. A downstream upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern conus through the period. Tonight, as the upper trough approaches the four corners region, high clouds will gradually spread east across the state late Tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s across the northern counties with mid 50s across the central and southern counties.
Some recent models (RAP, GFS, HRRR, SREF) are indicating light showers will develop in the southeast forecast area along the cold front later this afternoon and this evening. A period of strong FGEN/WAA will also occur over parts of the Northland today as the low moves through. Cooler air will continue to move across the region tonight in northwest flow through at least 850mb. The area of high pressure will continue to build into the region clearing the skies and pushing in colder air and will keep the forecast area mainly dry until the weekend.
An upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will dive southeast today and tonight, and will be over the central Rockies by early Monday morning.
Maximum storm surge between 5 to 8 feet across southwest Alabama peaked overnight with the high tide, and water levels will continue to decrease through tonight as Nate moving quickly away from the area.