Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CULMINATING IN A COLD FRONT KISSING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LAST EVENING'S SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND SAMPLED SEVERAL DRY LAYERS WITHIN THE WELL STACKED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Line of convection has solidified along a pre-frontal trof over western Kentucky, and will be pushing into central Kentucky during the afternoon commute. Actual cold front is back across Illinois, just this side of Interstate 55, with a decent line of convection along it. Precip tapers off after midnight, leaving us a transitional day on Friday with dry surface ridging oriented west to east, but the upper trof axis still to our north and west. Temps will actually run just on the high side of climo, with breezy west winds especially north of the Parkways.
WARM SECTOR FEATURES AN ABUNDANCE OF 70S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH ADVECTIVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS INDICATIVE OF SOME RELATIVE STABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE COOLER AIR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF STRETCHING AND DECOUPLING FROM UPPER LATITUDE TROUGH BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT.
200 AM PDT FRI APR 1 2016 High pressure will provide dry conditions and above average temperatures this weekend.
THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THAT CONVERGENCE ZONE. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR SKIES TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN IT. THE AIR CONTINUES TO BE WARM ENOUGH UNDER THE LOW TO KEEP LIMITED SNOWFALL.
411 AM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S AROUND LAREDO. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO CAA AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS EXPECTED BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE REALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS.
202 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES BY MID-MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
An upper low across central Ontario Canada will amplify through the next 24 hours. An upper level trough will dig southeast on the west side of the upper low across the central plains Thursday and Thursday Night. Strong ascent ahead of the upper trough combined with surface convergence along the surface front will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop during the mid afternoon hours across the northern counties of the CWA. Southwest flow in the 850-700mb layer will persist atop the low level cold front Thursday night which may allow for backbuilding elevated storms to occur across parts of the CWA overnight. This could allow for locally heavy rains behind the actual cold front Thurs night so will keep high pops all night especially across the south.
1032 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 7 PM. SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED OVER ERN PA, AND THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IS SLIDES UP THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 427 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
COLD FRONT IN NW MN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHERN MN AND THE EAU CLAIRE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT HAD SUN TODAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TOMORROW. COOLER AIR DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN.
THE ENVIORNMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT LIED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PROUDCING BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS IN THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z SPC WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH NEAR KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S.
COLD FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. A COOL THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
Have seen the lower clouds begin to break up slightly during the afternoon so far and this trend is expected to continue through the remainder of the day.
OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 79 67 84 / 70 80 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 78 66 82 / 60 80 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 78 66 82 / 60 80 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 78 63 81 / 80 80 50 20.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS ABOVE 16. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO I-30 AND WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SEWD. CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/850MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH FROM THE SWRN U.
WITH WEAK FORCING OVERSPREADING OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS REGION.
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the Concho Valley, as a very weak cold front slowly sags southward. Tomorrow with the very weakly defined cold frontal boundary farther south around the Interstate 10 corridor, have kept slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow mainly south of a San Saba to Mertzon line.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR AT CKV AND BNA BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS.
831 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZZV TO PIT TO DUJ. A PASSING SHOWER COULD REMAIN IN THE WV/MD RIDGES THURSDAY EVENING.
THU DOES LOOK LIKE A COOLER DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT AND PREFER TO GO WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE (MID 60S N-CNTRL WI/ AROUND 70 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).
1123 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE BUT MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER DAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HEDGING TOWARDS THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS BUT ADJUSTING FOR CAD AND LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YIELDING UPPER 60S FOR MAXES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST READINGS LOWER SUSQ). AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
737 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
SMALL TWEAKS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MADE AS MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB TROF RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTH TEXAS. A MESO HIGH WAS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHILE A STRONG 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONTANA. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH. THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST SEEM A GOOD FIT.
Area dew points largely in the lower 70s, and with light winds and mostly clear conditions areawide, some fog development is likely.
given a moist atmosphere (dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s) along with northwest flow aloft and a dissipating cold front. /ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the Concho Valley, as a very weak cold front slowly sags southward. Tomorrow with the very weakly defined cold frontal boundary farther south around the Interstate 10 corridor, have kept slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow mainly south of a San Saba to Mertzon line.
ALL OF THIS RAIN IS FALLING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOW 70S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW EVENING.
PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS/DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO NEVADA AND ARIZONA INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOL. RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB TROF RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTH TEXAS. A MESO HIGH WAS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHILE A STRONG 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONTANA. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH. THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST SEEM A GOOD FIT.
Although Cumulus should dissipate quickly prior to sunset it does point out the high boundary layer moisture. Forecast soundings suggest the highest low-level moisture and thus the best potential for patchy dense fog will remain along/south of the I-70 corridor. Meanwhile, an approaching cold front will spread clouds across north-central Illinois during the afternoon.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE STALLED FRONT AND WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST. FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT.
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION PUSHING A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
706 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 BIG PICTURE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHER/CENTRAL CONUS. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI ONLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE AND LOW-MID 70S SOUTH OF I-90. WITH DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RATHER COLD 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 1-5C RANGE.
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SOUTHERN CO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS AS SKIES CLEAR. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN TO GIVE WAY. WITH STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECASTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SO PREFER THE ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME PRECIP WITH LEADING CVA AND SURFACE/850 TROUGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR WITH IT. UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
1224 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
Towards the surface, lee troughing will continue tonight into tomorrow bringing southerly winds to the area. Storms then look to unzip southeastward along the cold front around sunset. As for temperatures, lows look to dip into the lower 60s tonight with highs around 90 degrees tomorrow.
1030 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWING BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE CONUS. W/ CENTER OF TROF NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH RELATIVELY LOW P E OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROF JUST POKING INTO FAR ECNTRL WY. THE FA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE MOSTLY DRY RIDGE UNDER FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM WNW TO NW.
WV Imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while upper level ridging persists across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of low pressure resides across extreme southeast Colorado. Towards the surface, lee troughing will continue tonight into tomorrow bringing southerly winds to the area. Storms then look to unzip southeastward along the cold front around sunset. As for temperatures, lows look to dip into the lower 60s tonight with highs around 90 degrees tomorrow.
SHOULD WE HAPPEN TO MIX HIGHER EITHER DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OR LESS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
UPSTREAM TROF AXIS ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF OVER CENTRAL LA/EAST TEXAS AND RELATIVELY DEEP MSTR POOL IN PLACE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. ALOFT AN UPPER TROF IS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND NO MID OR UPPER RIDGE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE MID MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PAST SUNSET, HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH DRIFTS IN, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WITH NEAR 2" PWAT AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF LINGERING OVER THE REGION THU RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST. FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT.
739 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY.
/issued 220 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ The cold front has pushed through most of the CWA and is currently just south of the Pecos River. The highest POPS for this afternoon and evening will be along the Lower Trans Pecos and the higher terrain. The upper trough that is centered over southern Canada will begin to deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Precipitation will once again be possible Thursday mainly across the higher terrain and Big Bend region.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Although surface cold front has pressed well south of the area (into western KY and western TN), a very weak convergence boundary is lingering over the area from near KAIZ through the STL metro at 20z. Highs will be near normal in the low to mid 80s.
734 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 7 PM. SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED OVER ERN PA, AND THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IS SLIDES UP THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
The PVA regions within the upper trof (h7/h5) continue east.
SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO LIGHT BUT STEADY BREEZE. RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR AT CKV AND BNA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DROPPED HIGHS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY AND WENT COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE WON'T HAVE AS FAR TO FALL WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INDUCES SOME RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.
928 PM PDT WED SEP 9 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
643 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 Forecast concerns begin with possible dense fog tonight and then Light winds overnight with cooler surface conditions and moisture trapped near the surface could mean some areas of fog. An upper level trough in the northwest flow will move down into the central plains tomorrow. ushering in a surface cold front and providing good isentropic lift to set the stage for some heavy rain in the CWA.
BY SUNRISE THE VIGOROUS WESTERN SD TROUGH ARRIVES AND HAVE BUMPED RAIN CHANCES UP ACROSS SERN MN AND NERN IA MAINLY. BIG PICTURE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHER/CENTRAL CONUS. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI ONLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE AND LOW-MID 70S SOUTH OF I-90. WITH DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RATHER COLD 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 1-5C RANGE.
751 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AVIATION HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR IN SAN FRANCISCO WAS 86. SOME WARMER. SOME COOLER. SALINAS AND MONTEREY AIRPORTS ARE BOTH COOLER THAN YESTERADY AT THIS TIME BY 10 AND 18 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
1136 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SE SD WITH SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO BE COOLER DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO IA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BOOSTING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LEAD INTO A DECIDED AIRMASS CHANGE WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET TO OUR NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN AND BUCKLE LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF WRN CONUS TROUGHING.
MOST OF THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION REFOCUS GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
628 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SE SD WITH SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO BE COOLER DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO IA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BOOSTING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LEAD INTO A DECIDED AIRMASS CHANGE WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET TO OUR NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN AND BUCKLE LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF WRN CONUS TROUGHING.
ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST.
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE BUT MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER DAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HEDGING TOWARDS THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS BUT ADJUSTING FOR CAD AND LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YIELDING UPPER 60S FOR MAXES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST READINGS LOWER SUSQ). AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
823 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE REGION HELPED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE BEING OBSERVED. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
1002 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE IS PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH A STRONG H5 S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER H25 DYNAMICS.
THE MID LVL RIDGE CENTER JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF -5.
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS.
633 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 COLD FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. A COOL THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
916 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION AND EVENTUALLY BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
AT 5H A RIDGE WAS OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE SERN COAST. WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF LA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS AS SKIES CLEAR. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN TO GIVE WAY. WITH STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECASTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND.