Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BMickelson 6PM UPDATE: Upper level ridging is keeping most of Northeast Montana in the clear this evening. Proton Previous Discussion: Water vapor showing an upper ridge moving over the northern Rockies and drifting east, while a large cut-off low over the Gulf of alaska is pushing onshore near the Queen Charlotte Islands. These low pressure systems are having a little more strength as we are heading toward Fall and more moisture is flowing through the upper ridges as they are weakening a bit too. The clear skies this afternoon will remain mostly clear through Wednesday as the upper ridge drifts in our direction.
1010 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will sweep through the area tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms affecting portions of the region through this evening.
The high temperature today at Redmond Airport was 92 degrees - the normal high is 84.
Thus, despite the 50s dewpoints hanging on along the I-25 corridor, cooler temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft have led to stable conditions and we do not expect any convection to survive very far east of the foothills. A Denver Cyclone has set up near DIA with an attendant convergence zone across the eastern side of metro Denver. On Wednesday the West Coast trough axis is located along the California Coast with an upper-level ridge axis right across Colorado.
538 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Aviation Section Updated With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, it will be dry with mostly clear skies tonight through Wednesday morning.
This loss of onshore flow will let temperatures near the coast to settle in to the mid and upper 70s, instead of the lower 80s.
/ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Cold front continues to slowly move south this afternoon, and the afternoon convection has already developed along the front in southwest Oklahoma and the southeast Texas panhandle.
A cold front has made its way through Kansas and inhibited the chances of any thunderstorm activity. In the mid and upper levels, a trough is positioned over the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay while a ridge is over the western half of the CONUS. The above mentioned trough over the Great Lakes brings a secondary wave which will likely stay east of the area for Wednesday.
An inland warming trend is likely late in the week and into the upcoming weekend due to strengthening high pressure. A nearly stationary, dry and closed mid-upper level low pressure circulation is located west of the Central Coast, nearly 200 miles west of Santa Maria.
751 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A strong cold front will move through the region overnight. Much cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week into the weekend. The actual cold front is still just entering central Ohio so there will be a chance of a shower or thunderstorm until the boundary ultimately passes later this evening. But a cooler and drier AM Wednesday. It will also be significantly cooler.
1006 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Scattered convection continues to shift south ahead of a slow moving cold front draped across central AR/OK. /issued 619 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA noted south of kmlu and well north of ktxk, the former likely being driven by daytime heating thus will diminish shortly after sunset, but the latter is caused by a cold frontal boundary. /issued 342 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Cold front draped across nrn AR/OK, associated with the upper trof over SE Canada, continues to make its way swd this aftn. Line of storms has developed along a swd-moving outflow boundary, ahead of the cold front.
The chance for a thunderstorm could continue until around 13z when the cold front finally moves away to the Appalachian crest.
19Z water vapor imagery shows the mean westerlies across the northern tier of the country with an upper trough over the great lakes and another off the British Columbian coast. There were also a couple areas of low pressure noted off the TX/LA gulf coast and off the CA coast. At the surface, obs show high pressure over the northern plains building south with the cold front stretching from southern MO into northern OK. Surface ridging should continue to build south with much drier air moving into the region. Highs Wednesday should rebound into the lower and middle 80s with good insolation and the boundary layer mixing to 850. By Wednesday night, a mid-level trough will be stretched across the northeastern U. with a mid-level ridge over the Northern Rockies, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft across the central U.
With the radiational cooling set up tonight into Wednesday morning, certainly cannot rule out some fog development prior to sunrise tomorrow within the low lying areas and/or locations that received some rainfall over the past few days.
Cooler and drier air will continue to filter southeast into our area tonight bringing some very pleasant weather to the region through the remainder of the work week. The combination of a clear sky and light wind should allow temperatures to drop into the low 50s north to the upper 50s south of I-70. High pressure will be centered to our west on Wednesday bringing plenty of sunshine to the area along with afternoon temperatures close to the 80 degree mark.
Drier and cooler weather for the next couple of days. Wall to wall sunshine today with northwest winds behind the cold front.
1201 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Low pressure will track to our north overnight into Wednesday as it brings a cold front across the area.
A cold front will slowly move through the area tomorrow, bringing a better chance for showers and storms to the region.
1139 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms well northwest of ktxk have been maintained by a nearby cold frontal boundary for the majority of the evening, but has since showed signs of oozing southeast to across northern McCurtain county. /issued 1006 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Scattered convection continues to shift south ahead of a slow moving cold front draped across central AR/OK. /issued 342 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Cold front draped across nrn AR/OK, associated with the upper trof over SE Canada, continues to make its way swd this aftn. Line of storms has developed along a swd-moving outflow boundary, ahead of the cold front.
633 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 137 PM CDT Drier air continues to spread southeastward into the forecast area on breezy northwest winds as a cold front continues southeast. MDB 206 PM CDT A seasonably strong upper trough currently setting up over Ontario and much of the Great Lakes will allow a strong northwest flow pattern aloft to persist across much of the area through the end of the week.
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A closed upper low over northeast Ontario is forecast to move eastward into Quebec during the next 36 hours. Overnight lows will dip into the low 40s north to the upper 40s south. A few of the climatologically cooler locales could see temperatures in the middle 30s. Height falls ahead of that trough, and diurnal heating, should be more than sufficient for showers to redevelop during the late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler, however, with highs in the low 60s northeast and over Iron County, WI and near 70 in central Minnesota.
1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A longwave TROF existed over eastern North America this afternoon with a longwave RIDGE over western North America, resulting in NW flow aloft for our region. A surface cold front has nearly cleared the forecast area, now over southern IL and southeastern MO and continues to chug southeastward.
As this northern boundary advances southward this evening, winds should turn abruptly to the northwest and convective potential should diminish despite the synoptic cold front hanging back further to the north. /issued 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ A cold front will continue to push south through the Mid-South tonight. As a result, northeasterly surface winds will keep the drier air in place making conditions feel very pleasant with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
1034 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will bring a few lingering showers overnight and a westerly wind shift. Quieter, cooler and drier weather conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Trailing cold front east of Lake Ontario will potentially bring isold/sct -SHRA overnight, with a few rumbles of thunder possible through 06-07Z. Isold additional showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, much closer to seasonal normals (mid- upr 70s).
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will move across the area tonight. The cold front has just entered the northwest counties with a few showers along it. Clouds will clear and high pressure will start to build in later in the night. Lows on Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 50s area-wide.
1006 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will move across the area tonight. Cold front stretching just north of I-70 late this evening will continue to progress southeast through the night. Lows on Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 50s area-wide.
744 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Aviation An unseasonably strong cold front has moved through Southwest Michigan early this afternoon.
An inland warming trend is likely late in the week and into the upcoming weekend due to strengthening high pressure. When all is set and done this afternoon, high temperatures should generally top out in the 60s and low 70s along the coast and upper 70s to perhaps the low 90s for interior locations. Synoptically an upper level low remains centered around 150 miles offshore from Big Sur around 35N 124W. Models advertise this low to push onshore by midweek as a broader longwave trough approaches coastal British Columbia.
Low pressure disturbance off the central coast continues to draw moisture towards the west into the forecast area this evening. Upper level low continues to spin off the central California coast this afternoon and will linger through Wednesday.
Cold front will continue to slowly push south through the area tonight, resulting in continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Short- duration MVFR or even IFR visibility may occur with some storms, and some guidance suggests a period of MVFR ceilings may develop across northwest AR and southeast OK tonight in wake of cold front/precipitation. /Issued 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ The chances of showers and thunderstorms will ramp up late this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border moves into the region. The cold front is expected to be near the Red River by early Wednesday morning with the chances of showers and diminishing.
A weak storm system approaching the region on Wednesday will bring cooler conditions and a chance of showers.
1248 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Aviation An unseasonably strong cold front has moved through Southwest Michigan early this afternoon.
1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front trailing the showers and storms that went through the Ozarks earlier today, will make its way through the region this evening and into the early overnight hours. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will make its way into the area overnight. The overall pattern will transition from northwesterly flow over a ridge over the western U.
However, lingering moisture in place and some modest destabilization will continue to induce convection, with the bulk of this tied to the higher terrain.
954 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will move across the area this evening bringing in a cooler airmass that will stick around for several days.
A ridge will remain over the area tonight through Wed. A band of mid and high clouds with a bit of instability will accompany the trough. afternoon flow aloft will be sandwiched between an old open wave over CA/NV and the ridge that will have moved to SE NM and west TX.
Expect cooler temperatures beginning tomorrow as post-frontal air filters into the mid state, and below normal temperatures will persist right through the end of the forecast period.
* Low for cig aob 5000 feet this afternoon The surface cold front now sliding across Se Mi will exit east of the forecast area between 21 and 23Z. This upper low will track into nrn Quebec on Wednesday, leaving a broad region of low level cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes region.
758 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will move across the area this evening bringing in a cooler airmass that will stick around for several days.
High pressure will slowly build eastward this evening, leading to some light to calm winds tonight.
858 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight into Wednesday morning.
Euro and Canadian progs remain a bit cooler than GFS/NAM. For now feel the NCEP models are probably handing the situation a bit better and will stick to the higher end guidance since favoring warmer than office blend or most model guidance has worked well this summer so far. This high pressure, along with northwesterly flow aloft will bring dry conditions to the area.
With thermal gradient, minimum temperatures should range from the lower 40s in the ne to around 50 in the west. Coolest temperatures in the mid/upper 60s over the ne to mid 70s in the west with warmer column and less cloud cover. By Fri the high migrates to the east, covering a tract from northern Ontario south through the Upper Midwest.
701 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A longwave TROF existed over eastern North America this afternoon with a longwave RIDGE over western North America, resulting in NW flow aloft for our region. A surface cold front has nearly cleared the forecast area, now over southern IL and southeastern MO and continues to chug southeastward.
619 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA noted south of kmlu and well north of ktxk, the former likely being driven by daytime heating thus will diminish shortly after sunset, but the latter is caused by a cold frontal boundary. /issued 342 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Cold front draped across nrn AR/OK, associated with the upper trof over SE Canada, continues to make its way swd this aftn. Line of storms has developed along a swd-moving outflow boundary, ahead of the cold front.
744 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Widespread thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Quieter, cooler and drier weather conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Cold front moves ewd across the area overnight and should start clearing trend and westerly wind shift areawide by 04Z or so. Isold additional showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tue, much closer to seasonal normals (mid-upr 70s).
Temps have slowly warmed into the middle and upper 60s, with dry air trying to mix out dewpoints into the lower 50s in spots. Temps will radiate into the 40s tonight, with warmer temps closest to Lake Superior/Michigan and possibly falling into the upper 30s across the west-central U. High pressure will be building into the region from the west Wednesday with winds turning northerly later in the day. Temps will warm into the lower to middle 60s Wed with skies partly cloudy throughout the afternoon.
517 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Upper level ridge will keep the weather mild and mostly dry through Wednesday night.
Initial broken line of showers and thunderstorms has basically faded away in the relatively stable air well ahead of the main pre-frontal trough making progress through Middle Tennessee.
844 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Upper ridge over western Montana was keeping the area dry tonight with a clear sky. Warm and dry conditions continue across the region as high pressure remains firmly entrenched. Temperatures will be the warmest they have been in a while with temperatures in the low to mid 90s possible.
Overnight lows will be in the lower-mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
A large area of high pressure has settled over the Midwest, so dry conditions can be expected all weekend for central Indiana.
441 PM PST Fri Mar 2 2018 A low pressure system will continue to bring rain and mountain snow along with breezy to locally windy conditions to the region through Saturday.
High pressure building into Middle Tennessee will keep VFR in place through the next 24 hours.
High pressure over central Canada will slow build eastward into the area this weekend.
More snow is on the way across the region as a big broad trough along the Pacific coast shifts over Nevada on Saturday.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: High pressure will continue to bring rather pleasant, although somewhat cool, conditions to the "Arklamiss" region through the next 24 hours. High pressure at the surface still building south through the Lower MS Valley currently will only slowly transition east of the region through tomorrow, at long last bringing all areas two days in a row of fine weather.
628 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure and dry conditions will be present through the weekend. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Saturday and Saturday night.
High pressure was centered over northern Illinois this afternoon which is responsible for the clear skies and near normal temperatures. Temperatures will cool off some tonight with some locations over eastern sections of the forecast area having lows at or slightly below freezing.
625 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Mostly clear skies will be seen through the short term, as an upper level ridge of high pressure gradually shifts from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Given the drier air in place and mostly clear skies, have favored a wider diurnal range, staying on the cooler side of guidance for the lows, while going warmer for the highs. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the 20s, with highs on Saturday in the low 50s for most locations.
Aloft a broad upper ridge over the lower plains states and Texas will amplify through Sat afternoon mostly in response to the strong cyclonic bomb moving eastward over the open Atlantic waters off the northeast and mid Atlantic coasts. Near seasonal temps are also expected tonight and on Sat with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s for most areas generally north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to middle 40s further south to the immediate coast. Highs Sat will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most of the northern half of the forecast area and the lower 70s further south to the immediate coast.
With continental northeast flow in the low level to persist through the night, so will the dry conditions that will bring clear skies and cool temperatures. /issued 530 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ 00Z TAFS VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with high pressure centered north of the area. /issued 342 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows low amplitude ridging over the southern plains building eastward over the area. At the sfc, a ridge of high pres extends south from the upper MS valley to the northwest Gulf.
946 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure and dry conditions will be present through the weekend.
With continuing warm air advection across the region, temperatures will be even warmer on Saturday, but with increasing low level moisture models are suggesting stratus developing over much of the area during the day. Did add some drizzle to portions of our east later in the day with the warm air advection above the low level moisture, and both the GFS and NAM are outputting some very light QPF in the afternoon.
This will result in a tighter pressure gradient and more moisture and WAA to build into the area with highs reaching into the lower 60s Saturday afternoon.
Winter storm has ended but the storm's cold front has stalled across southern Twin Falls County and another 1-2 inches of snow may fall there overnight. Upper low, still off the Oregon coast, will rotate a short wave trough into the area bringing scattered snow showers from the southwest Saturday, exiting our Idaho zones Saturday evening.
524 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure over the region today under an upper level ridge, will allow for mild temperatures and light winds through this afternoon and tonight. The south winds will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 60s.
The sheltered valleys may go calm, while the higher elevations may remain at or above 5kt.
850 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure remains in control of the weather across central and southeast Illinois tonight, producing mostly clear skies aside from a weak upper level disturbance that will produce a few hours of mid-level clouds north of I-74 late this evening. Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario southward to the Gulf Coast will shift slowly eastward over the next 24 hours. As a result, am expecting afternoon highs just a few degrees warmer than today. generally topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
419 PM MST Fri Mar 2 2018 21z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into eastern NE. Water vapour showed upper low heading into the western WA/OR coast with ridge shifting east of the CWA. Upper low the main concern this forecast.
Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal. Moisture remains with light south to southwesterly flow at the lower levels which will provide some upslope flow.
1012 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Gradient winds between high pressure over Great Lakes, and intense offshore low, only gradually slacken through the weekend.
Southwesterly flow aloft with deepening low pressure to our southeast sets the stage for more moisture pouring into the Northern Plains. Have a mix of mainly some light snow/flurries in the north and drizzle/freezing drizzle elsewhere.
Rain chances will increase overnight into early Saturday morning as a coastal trough swings by. The coastal trough is forecast to develop overnight and that should be the impetus for generating some light rain and/or drizzle, mainly starting out as drizzle but becoming more like rain toward morning as the nice mid level theta-e ridge moves into the area from the southeast. This ridge, with PWATs around 1.
A warm front is analyzed to the south of the international border and off the coast, which will move back northward late tonight and Saturday.
Either - an Omega type block was setup over North America (with its anchor lows off over the Pacific NW and east of New England), or a Rex type block (upper high north of an upper low) from south of Greenland to east of New England. The three GOES-16 water vapor channels (especially the lower/middle "views") showed little upper level moisture over and near this region. Fortunately, the coldest air associated with this high should stay well to the north of this region, heading more towards the NW Atlantic area of low pressure. Also cannot rule out some spots falling to or below freezing - a first in a good three weeks since it was that cold.
Went ahead and cancelled the high wind warning for Arlington early as winds should continue to stay down. Weak low-level gradients suggest mixing-driven winds, so will keep the High Wind Warning going through sunset when we should see a significant decline in speeds. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Saturday with upper-level ridging in place. Widespread 60s are likely across the high plains of southeast Wyoming and the western NE Panhandle.
On Saturday, the main upper low moves overhead with continuing light snow showers.
1029 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight will move farther offshore through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley tonight will move eastward.