Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The High Wind Warning were allowed to expire outside of the wind prone areas in southeast Wyoming since gusts have lowered quite a bit over the past 2 or 3 hours. A surface cold front, which is still in Montana and northern South Dakota at this hour, is expected to move southward tonight. Expect stronger winds at lower elevations of the high wind warning, to slowly decrease overnight and especially as winds decouple in the low levels. Craig to Casper 850/700 mb height gradients remains sufficient tonight to warrant keeping the high wind warning for our wind prone locations such as Arlington, Vedauwoo and the I-80 summit. Cooler in the wake of the cold front that passes early in the day. Colder night in the wake of the cold front.
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ With this morning's cold front a distant memory as it crosses the central Gulf this evening.
High pressure will build over the region and remain in place through much of the week.
Weather models are showing a strong broad ridge of high pressure will set up shop along the West Coast. This will allow warmer air to move into the area from the south.
While a lull in the spotty rainfall is expected through the remainder of the evening, no change to the lower chance PoPs is planned at this time.
1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Tonight-Monday: Cold front will move through central KS before sunrise and across the entire forecast area by midday.
A shift to north winds will develop overnight as the next weak cold front moves through the High Plains, driven by a sharp upper trough moving through the Missouri Valley. Even the colder NAMmos guidance indicates above freezing temperatures in the Ark valley west of DDC to the CO line while most model output only drops lows into the mid 40s. Given the dry conditions, the raw models might be slightly too cool for highs on Monday afternoon, which the MOS consensus is warmer than by a few degrees especially west.
Some patchy fog is possible across the lower lying areas of the basin that includes the gorge.
Otherwise, high pressure will build into the region through Wednesday.
High pressure will gradually move from the nrn Great Lakes to the Lower Great Lakes today and tnt. Temps will be slightly warmer than yesterday. Both the ECMWF and NAM show 925 temps returning to the lower 20s celsius with the GFS a smidge cooler.
Latest radar trends and HIRES model consensus maintains the highest pcpn probs between I-80 and the PA Turnpike through mid morning. Max temps will range from the upper 70s in the Northern Alleghenies to mid 80s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure moving off the New England coast will pivot the (quasi-stationary-warm) frontal boundary to more of a NW-SE orientation on Wed.
Upper trough looks to slow its eastwards translation, so MCV could very well slow its progress today.
The next 36 hours will be dominated by the H5 ridge stretched W/E across south Texas. This will be more of a concern in the western valley due to lesser rainfall received in the past couple weeks than the lower valley.
915 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Will carry a gradient in pops with the highest values in the northern Midlands generally in the 21z-03z time frame and lower pops to the south where drier air will be in place. Temperatures will again push into the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows tonight remaining mild in the mid 70s. The upper ridge along the Gulf Coast states will try to build northward over the forecast area on Wednesday with 500mb height rises which should again limit convection despite forecast moderate instability.
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Progressive upper level trough continues to move across the area this morning with several embedded impulses producing very small areas of convection overnight across SD and KS. Upper heights will slowly build over the area Wednesday as a western upper level ridge begins to slide east.
Temperatures are starting out out warmer by 10 degrees compared to yesterday but high level clouds are going to move in from the west shortly after midday. GFS LAMP guidance shows the temperatures capping out in the low 90s as the winds turn easterly and airmass is slightly cooler behind the overnight wave. Weak short wave energy topping the ridge has capitalized on available instability and weak frontal passage across south central Montana with scattered thunderstorms across the mountains and foothills.
The upper high will build northward this week and into the Four Corners region.
An upper ridge is forecast to remain over the Rockies through the end of the week, so more MCS/MCVs will move across the area over the next several days. This could also lead to some challenges in the temperature forecast depending on the coverage of convection and cloud cover, but generally speaking, hot and humid conditions will remain across the region with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Regardless of outcome, with the exception of the higher elevations of northeast Georgia, confidence is medium to high that any showers/storms will dissipate after 8PM and hopefully not impact many outdoor (Independence Day) activities. This should help to limit convection while warming temps up into the lower to mid 90s across much of central GA.
High pressure building in from the north will keep locations north of the Pittsburgh metro dry today and tonight. This is due to the higher dew points south of the boundary, fueling very modest instability.
Little change to the overall pattern is expected for this Independence Day other than the mid level ridge axis building slightly northward across the forecast area by this afternoon. The deep layer dry airmass will remain in place across most of the area along with increased subsidence under the ridge, so will carry a dry forecast today. Expect plenty of heat and humidity today, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 90s inland, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s near the beaches and immediate coast. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is anticipated tonight with overnight lows ranging from the lower to mid 70s inland, and 75 to 80 near the immediate coast and beaches.
A strong upper high over the Southwest U. and an upper trough over the northeast Pacific will maintain southwest flow aloft over Western Washington and moderate low-level onshore flow.
1127 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front was located to the south of the region as high pressure builds across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania from the northern Great Lakes. This area of high pressure will move eastward through tonight reaching New England Wednesday.
904 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front was located to the south of the region as high pressure builds across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania from the northern Great Lakes. This area of high pressure will move eastward through tonight reaching New England Wednesday.
Highs and lows should likely be in the lower 80s NE to the upper 80s to near 90F in SW 1/3 of forecast area. Highs in the lower 80s NE to mid to upper 80s to near 90F over SW 2/3 of the forecast area. Area mins in the lower in far NE to near 70F far SW sections.
735 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure ridging into the region will keep a dry airmass across the region through Wednesday.
636 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over southern Ontario/Great Lake/Upper Mississippi River Valley regions was providing mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Models show a weak mid-level trough moving southeast across the area today. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a weak/trough/cold front works into the area.
1054 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will builds over the Northeast through tonight, then shift off the New England coast Wednesday into Wednesday night.
738 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide fair weather through Wednesday.
1243 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes will sustain light east to northeast winds and clear skies through the TAF period. 66 inch PW Value/25 C dew pt depression at 700 mb per 00z DTX Sounding) in place, as a large area of high pressure encompasses the entire Great Lakes Region.
938 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Low level ridge axis across the central peninsula this morning. High temps climbing into the low-mid 90s interior and near 90/lower 90s east coast with dew points in the mid 70s will make for a hot and humid holiday, with heat index readings up to ~106F some areas this afternoon. Ridge axis across the central peninsula will shift slight southward into late week and early weekend as a frontal boundary moves into the southeast U.
1235 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 An area of high pressure sliding by to our north will bring a predominantly warm and dry Independence Day and evening with a light northeast breeze. lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures will follow for this weekend. Max temps for the mid-late afternoon will range from the upper 70s in the Northern Alleghenies to mid 80s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure moving off the New England coast will pivot the (quasi-stationary-warm) frontal boundary to more of a NW-SE orientation on Wed.
538 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Heights aloft will rise significantly today as ridging builds over the four corners region. The ridge axis will remain just to our west through the period. Underneath the building ridge, subsidence and warming will occur which will make convective coverage hard to come by today and Wednesday. A few showers and high based storms may try to form today but mainly over the higher terrain with little if any measurable precipitation. Highs near 100 degrees expected over a few of the lower elevations of SE WY and western NE by Wednesday afternoon with temps well into the 90s elsewhere outside of the mountains.
A large area of high pressure continues to build across the intermountain west, with a corresponding trough located across the north Pacific. As high pressure continues to build to our east, thunderstorms associated with the North American Monsoon will steadily increase as well. The low cloud deck may briefly break up this afternoon, before dropping back to IFR or mvfr this evening.
High pressure aloft will strengthen across the western states through the balance of the week. High pressure firmly in place over the forecast area this morning with the ridge axis overhead, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Despite the dry airmass and lack of instability, it will be hot enough to see some convective buildups over the higher terrain, perhaps producing a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northern Utah. The ridge is expected to remain in place through the forecast period, but models indicate the axis of the ridge will shift just east of the area tomorrow. This convection will initially be focused over the higher terrain but will spread into some valleys, at least over southern Utah, by the weekend.
A high pressure ridge is still in place to our west, keeping us in northwest flow. After today, the ridge begins expanding eastward, which starts to turn the flow northerly and then eventually northeasterly.
Timing will have convection forming along the higher terrain first then moving onto the plains by the late afternoon. Strong upper level ridge will begin to build toward the state today, and as expected in this regime Q-G fields show weak subsidence. Isolated storms are likely to diminish a little faster this evening with the weakly subsident and warmer airmass aloft.
Highs generally 75 to 80 degrees, although a few degrees cooler near the coasts with lake breeze development. Large area of strong high pressure accompanied by dry air thru the entire column remain locked over the Great Lakes region early this morning. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today as the airmass overhead modifies. Enjoy your 4th of July! High pressure moves off to our east allowing for a progressively more moist flow.
WV imagery shows the upper trough that was over CO yesterday has dug SE to OK, spawning a MCS last night, the remains of which are drifting south into our nrn- tiered counties. The trough continues shifting the upper ridge west, where it currently lies along the U. All models are in good agreement in lifting the trough to the AR/MO border by 00Z Wed, leaving almost meridional flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Wednesday, w/the upper trough still nosing SW into Texas and keeping the upper ridge sufficiently west, the wrn mtns will once again serve as a focus for convection as upslope flow keeps moisture in place.
Theta-e ridge to our east supporting some showers in ND, but front will be dry for us. As high pressure builds south from Canada will see temperatures reading a little cooler today, especially across the northern zones. The western US upper ridge rebounds into Montana tonight. This will bring warmer air back into the region for Wednesday with high temperature expected to reach near 100 in some areas. Synoptic Setup: Wednesday night begins with a large area of hot high pressure covering the western half of the CONUS. Ridge spurs jut out from here over South Dakota and into the Upper Mississippi Valley and up into British Columbia and Yukon Territory through the Rockies. A large closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and into the Gulf of Alaska.
Convection will be mostly suppressed today based on the 12z KTAE sounding with a lot of mid-level dry air observed as well as the ridging that is in place. Deep layer ridging will dominate today with the axis stretched just south of the CWA, over the Gulf. With deep layer ridging and limited convection, temperatures this afternoon will soar into the mid to upper 90s, resulting in heat indices around 105 with these higher values mainly in the Florida Big Bend area and southwest Georgia.
1100 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Water vapor shows short wave trof tracking east of the nrn Rockies with ongoing isolated convection east of Billings. Associated sfc trof moving into ern MT/ern WY. Short wave trof will cross the nrn plains today, with MLCAPE values around 1000J/KG along the sfc trof as it tracks across the cwfa. Atmosphere should remain fairly capped, so most convective activity should be confined to higher elevations of the Blkhls and along the sfc trof. Upper ridge quickly reamplifies through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains on Wednesday with thermal profiles still showing temps around 100F, especially east of the Blkhls.
Water vapor imagery does show a weak upper trough just off the Deep South Texas coast which will move inland and weaken even more, but it could bring enough moisture with it on Wednesday to generate a few showers Wednesday morning and thunder maybe NE in the afternoon. A degree or so cooler on Wednesday with more clouds and cooler boundary layer temperatures.
741 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Will carry a gradient in pops with the highest values in the northern Midlands generally in the 21z-03z time frame and lower pops to the south where drier air will be in place. Temperatures will again push into the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows tonight remaining mild in the mid 70s. The upper ridge along the Gulf Coast states will try to build northward over the forecast area on Wednesday with 500mb height rises which should again limit convection despite forecast moderate instability.
This is when an area of low pressure will track across southern Canada with the trailing cold front over western ND and into northwest SD.
Latest guidance shows building 700mb ridge over the area.
1006 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure ridging into the region will keep a dry airmass across the region through Wednesday.
Deep layered ridging from the Atlantic extending west across the central Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico today will remain in control but will drift a bit to the north later tonight into Wednesday. Similar to previous days expect to see sea breeze driven showers and storms develop across the region, with the highest rain chances setting up over inland locations during the afternoon. Temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal norms with daytime highs climbing to around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland, with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.
938 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Recent mesoscale diagnosis efforts indicate a convectively enhanced/induced vorticity max, moving northeast near the OK/AR/MO border, with a small amplitude trough extending towards the ArkLaTex region. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont on Wed as a lingering upper trof conts working sloly acrs the region.
930 AM PDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Building high pressure will bring warmer weather through the upcoming weekend. The low clouds didn't cover much ground this morning and have already cleared for a mostly sunny fourth of July.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 72 90 72 / 50 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 70 87 70 / 80 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 82 71 86 70 / 80 40 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 84 66 / 80 60 40 40.
The axis of a large subtropical high pressure over the central Atlantic, extends across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are being driven by the subtropical ridge are out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots along the Island Chain, near 10 knots from the marine stations on the Gulfside and Bayside waters, and 10 to 15 knots at the C-MAN stations along the reef. The Atlantic ridge will remain the dominant player in the forecast with little change expected. Winds will be gentle to moderate through at least Wednesday night due to a trough moving off the Canadian Maritimes, intensifying the gradient around the ridge. Several small mid level lows will assail the eastern flank of the ridge and fracture the western extent of this feature.
There are some clouds and elevated convection over the Devils Lake area and northern Red River Valley, out ahead of the surface cold front. Looking at the wind field, the cold front or trough is somewhere still around a Minot to Dickinson line. Still expecting storms to fire along the cold front/trough in the late afternoon time frame over the Devils Lake region and northern valley. Upper ridging over MB shifts into wrn Ontario today as main wave moves across srn Canada. Will see some cooler temps Thu aftn as lows drop into the lower 80s after the hot mid- week period.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Four Corners region during the next several days and bring above normal temperatures to the central California interior. Satellite images show clear and dry conditions across central CA due to a large upper ridge over the SW. This condition will continue into tonight with temperatures warming a bit due to the ridge expanding further into Ca. Otherwise temperatures will remain above normal as the the ridge of high pressure remain anchored in the four corners region for the remainder of the forecast period.
Differential heating and convergence along the Laurel and Chestnut Ridges is leading to isolated early afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the higher dew points south of the boundary, fueling very modest instability.
The unsettled wx pattern wl cont on Wed as a lingering upper trof conts working sloly acrs the region.
Meanwhile, cool surface ridging should build over the region today on breezy north winds, but clouds should hold off until later today and tonight as the trough passes through. Barring some flurries or sprinkles mostly NW of our CWA today and tonight, saturated ascent with this trough looks to be overwhelmed by a deep and dry sub-cloud layer.
A potent upper trough digs south across the Great Plains through the near term, extending as far southwest as northern Mexico by late tonight. To the east of this trough, zonal flow continues over the Deep South and Southeast U. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure builds east from the southern high plains and Texas panhandle into the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge pushes a weak front south through our area late tonight. North winds behind the front then usher in a cooler airmass to start the short term.
Mid morning surface analysis had a cold front across our Delta region that will continue shifting south today. This will be a dry cold front that will reinforce the cool dry airmass over our area behind the wind shift to the north associated with it. On the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the northwest. For today a dry cold front will cross the region. Highs today will be from the lower 50s north and lower 60s south.
Windy, brisk and cold day in the wake of the cold frontal passage, with strongest winds east of I-25, and especially over the southern Nebraska panhandle.
920 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Weak high pressure builds across the region today while a weak disturbance moves by to our south.
High pressure building aloft will provide mostly sunny skies for the area today. A cold front arrives Friday night with chances for accumulating snow.
Behind this area of low pressure, a ridge of high pressure will slide across the region late today and tonight with cold, but mainly dry conditions.
For now left precipitation type as mainly snow but will take a closer look at things over the next few hours for the possibility of light freezing precipitation this evening. As the main forcing field exits southern ND this morning, used a blend of the high resolution models for capturing pops/precipitation trends for the remainder of the day. RAP BUFKIT sounding analysis shows the low level saturated layer reaching high enough into the ice crystal production zone, resulting in any threat for light freezing drizzle spotty/remote at best. A warm front will reside across northeast ND/Turtle Mountains Friday.
Another Cold Front. Another cold front will push across West Central Texas today and bring winds from the north, along with cool air.
A broad area of weak low pressure exists in central ND which weakens as tries to move southeast.
A fast moving trough will push through the Four Corners today, bringing an increase in clouds, some breeziness and a slight chance of showers to far southeast Arizona.
Surface winds will be light and variable early this morning then becoming Northerly 5-10 knots with the passage of a cold front moving to the South. /issued 437 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/ A weak cold front just north of the Red River Valley will move into the region, but with little effect on daytime conditions.
320 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017 The upper flow pattern over the next couple of days looks very similar to the past few days providing northwest flow over northeast Montana given an adjacent ridge to the west and trough to the east. Clear skies will be more likely further west closer to the influence of the upper ridge. The upper ridge axis will shift east and extend into northeast Montana on Friday.
Upper wave will slide through the northern plains this morning, bringing gusty winds, light snow, and cooler air. Upper ridge will shift over the central states on Friday, as a trough pushes into the western CONUS.
1016 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure that was in the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday has tracked east and is now located over southern Florida. In addition to increasing moisture with a southerly wind, the temperatures will be on the rise today as well reaching into the low 70's which is average for this time of year. High pressure has moved south of Florida which will be producing a southwest wind flow over the coastal waters for the next couple of days.
Upper ridge rebuilds for Friday with temperatures recovering to the middle and upper 50s.
A cold front moving through today will bring breezy and colder weather.
A strong upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will quickly flatten and break down through tonight, allowing a cold front to move onshore with some rain on Friday morning.