Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
331 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK HOWEVER TIMING/LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FORECAST GETTING A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BEYOND THIS POINT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ROTATED NORTHWARD BUT TO VARYING DEGREES.
QUASI- STATIONARY SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMING TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
342 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
1131 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A FEW MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT INCREASING JUST A BIT IN COVERAGE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 6-10KFT N OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE SE TX COAST. SCT -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE LOW CENTER.
331 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH SPREAD A CLOUDS INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA TODAY. AND HIGHS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SHOULD BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR. SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING CREATING NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to aforementioned low level warm advection.
132 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD, AND OFF THE COAST, WITH DRY WEATHER GIVING WAY TO A FEW SHOWERS, BY LATER MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY NUDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE, ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS NY/PA, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COME EASTWARD, LIKELY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
424 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD HAS BEEN FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 5-15F COOLER THAN MONDAY.
402 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED TO NOT HAVE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE PLAY SUCH A DOMINANT ROLE THIS WEEK IN OKLAHOMA'S WEATHER. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY STILL RANGE ACROSS OKLAHOMA, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE FARTHER WEST.
300 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN. RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF AUTUMN.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS PASSING COLD FRONT. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER AND CLEARING SKIES.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND WEAK RIDGING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH. SAME GENERALLY FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DRY/COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL 25H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 25H RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO MAINTAIN WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE THE LOW LEVEL AIDE TO GET TODAY'S CONVECTION UNDERWAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOW ONLY SLIGHTLY WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND INFLOW OF SOUTHERLY TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BRIEF INTRUSIONS INTO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES NEARBY. AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, PROVIDING LIFT TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST. UPPER RIDGING FURTHER DEVELOPS SUNDAY BUT A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN, RESULTING IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS MORNING THEN SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WITH MAINLY SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE RATON RIDGE. ON SATURDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR THE DESERT SW. AND IN THE 80S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. BEFORE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEEK'S END. THOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY 3-5F COOLER THAN TOO HOT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP DEVELOPS TUE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER BRIEFLY SHIFTS EAST. AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED-FRI. SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS A STRONGER SHOVE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER A BOUT OF STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. A LEE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH JUST W OF TX IS PROGD TO SHIFT NE TODAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WARRANT KEEPING A CHC ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA.
8" THIS AFTERNOON WE EXPECT SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION (40%) OVER OUR FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SO STRATUS IS POSSIBLE. THE 0-2KM THETA-E/WIND AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PROJECTION SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SW COAST AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR SERN MISSOURI. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS FINALLY STARTED BURNING OFF. A TROUGH SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HELPED TO TURN WINDS TO THE S/SE. CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY THOSE SRN LOCATIONS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS COULD BE WARMER. CURRENT DPT/TEMP COMBO FORECAST CALLS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S. WARMER HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WOBBLES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE CWA POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTN NORTH ESPECIALLY IF THE LOWER CLOUDS DO NOT MAKE IT THERE.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HEIGHTS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LOS ANGELES THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CRUISING THROUGH NEVADA IN THE PERSISTENT DRY SW FLOW. ATMOSPHERE WARMS SLIGHTLY TODAY, AS THE HOT UPPER HIGH MIGRATES EAFTER 11 AM, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
434 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CHEYENNE CURRENTLY. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE TO THE SOUTH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST TO SRN INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE REGION.
231 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the next work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION.
EITHER VIA CONVECTION OR A STRONG WAKE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR FAITH SD.
ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS STILL RESIDES ALONG WITH INVERTED UPPER LVL TROUGH.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WILL ADD SOME AREAS OF FOG TO THE NORTH AND EXTEND UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST.
425 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE TODAY IS LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND SWRN AZ.
WE ARE NEAR THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WITH THE RIDGE MAXIMUM SHIFTING EAST OF US SUNDAY.
252 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES WERE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LOS ANGELES THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CRUISING THROUGH NEVADA IN THE PERSISTENT DRY SW FLOW. ATMOSPHERE WARMS SLIGHTLY TODAY, AS THE HOT UPPER HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
227 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ARRIVE IN FAR WRN PORTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (LOCALLY MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST.
253 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 WHATS LEFT OF TS BILL IS NOW AN UPPER WAVE OVER SERN INDIANA WITH THE TROF AXIS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. MAINLY SCT SHRA WERE AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSRA AS WELL. SO TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
BILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST STATES. THERE REMAINS SOME DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN ANY LINGERING BANDS OF TROPICAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BUT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI WITH N-NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXITING THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS QUICKLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST SD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WAA. AND ARE NOT WARMER DUE TO THE COOL AIR OUTFLOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH END NATURE OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THUS ENHANCED LIFT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST POPS/LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL.
142 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THEN A LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STALL THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES UNTIL MID MORNING. THE AREA APPEARS TO MOSTLY BE BETWEEN THE EASTWARD SHIFTING TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT HEADED EAST ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CROSSES THE ARE SUN NIGHT WITH THE MODELS SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE FAST APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PEASANT IN THE LOWER 60S.
Lapse rates increase as a pocket of cooler air moves through the aforementioned region.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH ARE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS CAN BEEN SEEN AS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER INCREASES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS AND BULK OF THE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES TO DECREASE AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS AND DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WILL BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT NOW APPEARS ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST.
850mb Temps will warm to around +4 to +6C which supports surface temperatures in the lower to perhaps mid 50s for highs in areas of no snow cover. VFR flight category is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.
Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend.
416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH.
452 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS. AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A dry and tranquil weather pattern will prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016 A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY TODAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A 130 KT JET DROPPING ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS JET WILL PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS LACK OF MTN WAVE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. ON MON NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US.
1238 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
402 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST.
322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.
THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT.
SATURDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS RISING ABV FREEZING AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABV 40 DEGREES. BUT STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL KEEP IT COOLER. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING LOOKS REASONABLE.
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OZARKS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT SANDHILLS. WESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE A NOTICEABLE WARMUP. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE DEEP SNOWPACK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTING TO 45 OR 50 MPH WHICH IS BELOW THE HIGH WIND THRESHOLD.
1252 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AS CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NM/W TX S/W LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK OR JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SHOULD ADD MORE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 08Z AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHRA TO DEVELOP NEAR CLL AND FILL IN TO THE SW AS TROUGH SWINGS EAST. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES LATE TONIGHT AND ON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND ON INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
1239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT- MODERATE PRECIP FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
353 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON THE COOLER SIDE. HAVE KEPT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE DEEP SNOW COVER IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT ABOVE FREEZING ON MOST DAYS ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF STEADY SNOW MELT.
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK. QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE U. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN.
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
1002 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the lowlands and snow to the mountains.