Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. 'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper ridge puts a foot-print across the region. A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting across Louisiana.
Warmer and a little more humid than the last several nights. Isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Tuesday as today's ridge weakens and moves off to the east.
1009 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather today. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. High pressure will begin to retreat east during the day Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front towards the CWA.
Throughout the short term period, the highest chances for significant rainfall accumulation will be along and south of the I-20 corridor.
/Updated at 0130 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ A weak ridge of high pressure is currently centered over far eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
Afternoon temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 80s, with a few spots into the upper 80s. High pressure then starts to break down tomorrow as surface cold front gradually drops southeast towards the area.
This low pressure will bring increased cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms to the CWA during the late afternoon to evening hours. A few residual showers will be possible into the afternoon tomorrow for the Arrowhead as well as areas east of WI state highway 27 as cold front sweeps across the CWA.
A cold front in the wake of this disturbance will continue to push south this evening, reaching southwest Kansas during the overnight hours.
The ECMWF seems to have trended a bit closer to the GFS regarding the eventual eastward trek of Nicholas, which creates a bit more uncertainty regarding how far south the cold front associated with a weak upper trough will make it.
Ridging aloft stretches east/west across the southern CONUS, while the prevailing westerlies are just to our north. There is a weakness in the ridge over the south central CONUS, which Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is heading north into. As the wave moves east, it will deepen southward into the weakness in the ridge on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Nicholas will move slowly inland and weaken/degrade, with deep tropical moisture getting picked up ahead of the trough.
A gradual increase in moisture to the area begins tonight as Tropical Storm Nicholas makes landfall in Texas and an inverted trough moves into the Bahamas.
1149 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. 'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper ridge puts a foot-print across the region. A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting across Louisiana.
1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 (Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery showed upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest. Another ridge was centered over the southeast U. With increasing dewpoints and more afternoon clouds (especially across our southeastern counties) we will see slightly cooler daytime temperatures.
High pressure was located over the Carolinas and Georgia with return flow bringing humidity up into Middle Tn.
226 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Thunderstorms become likely late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a cold front approaches.
106 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather today. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. High pressure will begin to retreat east during the day Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front towards the CWA.
This flow will help to bring a couple of upper level short wave troughs across the area which will bring a cold front into the Panhandles. The cold front will move into the northwest CWA on Tuesday and this along with an upper level short wave will help to spark showers and thunderstorms across this area late in the afternoon or evening.
315 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warm and mostly quiet weather persists for one more day, as the area remains along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered across the southern Appalachian Valley.
With a secondary push of cooler air forecast to cross the local area overnight tonight. the entire forecast should be noticably cooler. highs tomorrow afternoon should range from the lower 70s across our far north. This cooler weather will not last long.
A broad upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS and the eastern Gulf steadily weakens through the period as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves north over the eastern Gulf north/northeastward into Texas. Highs Tuesday are then expected to be slightly cooler (due to higher chances of showers/storms), with temperatures in the low to mid 80s area-wide, with the cooler temps more confined to the western half of our forecast area.
SETUP: Warm front currently lays out west to east across central IA and northern IL with a band of low clouds just north of it. With good turning and strong shear in the 0-1km layer, cannot rule out an isolated tornado around the warm front.
A cold front will approach the Kansas-Oklahoma border late tomorrow afternoon.
Dry conditions will prevail across much of the region today, with cooler temps than reported yesterday.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move over through the Northern Rockies on Tuesday causing a period of warming and drying.
Weak ridging will move over the area tonight into tomorrow with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today and less cloud cover through the afternoon hours.
334 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week.
1253 PM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof pushing through the Northern Plains, with next upper trof already moving from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has pushed through all but south central SD. However, next trof quickly moves in this evening and overnight, with additional showers/storms especially over our southwestern 2/3rd of zones.
A trough passing to the north will weaken the ridge and result in 2-4Â°F of cooling Tuesday. Some afternoon breezes are again possible, mainly along the lower Colorado River Valley and into Imperial Valley. The overall pattern changes little through the week, with the upper level ridge to our southwest and lowering heights to our northwest.
High pressure shifts to the east allowing a front to approach from the the Ohio River Valley with renewed precipitation chances for the middle part of the work week. Tomorrow sees the high continue to shift ever slightly, especially with a front on the way from the northwest. With this displacement of the high, we should finally receive enough SW flow combined with heating that storms can develop in the mountains.
This will pull the surface warm front northward later tonight into Tuesday morning. However will still carry a chance with the trailing cold front as it moves through late tonight through by midday.
A moist airmass is expected to remain over the area on Tuesday while another cold front moves south from the Northern Plains. As the front moves down, the lee trough will push off the rockies during the afternoon aiding with the development of storms during the afternoon hours. Despite being cooler, the environment seems more favorable for storms tomorrow afternoon.
At 333 PM, A trough moving through the Dakotas was producing widespread rain over eastern South Dakota, along with a few embedded thunderstorms. This should set us up for mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s).
Deep layer ridging will supress thunderstorms from developing today. The ridge of High pressure will weaken a little overnight and lift to the north, allowing moisture from the Gulf to move further inland, increasing PoPs chances a little to about 30-40 percent Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures tonight will cool down to the low 70s and then warm to the mid to upper 80s for the High on Tuesday.
High pressure continues to slowly dry out and cap the airmass over Arizona.
High pressure over the region that has been responsible for the hot weather will gradually weaken during the week.
239 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Visible satellite imagery revealing chaotic sky conditions across the CWA, as showers and scattered thunderstorms for much of the day have left residual stratocumulus clouds in the low levels as well as cirrostratus clouds in the upper levels. An upper level low currently located north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico is forecast to push northwestward and result in tropical cyclogenesis north of the Bahamas by midweek. This will weaken the formidable ridge across the Atlantic, with slackened southeast to south flow.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Tropical Storm Nicholas is off the Texas coast and will move north making landfall along the lower coast tonight.
This activity will continue pushing eastward through the rest of the morning into the afternoon and early evening hours as low pressure and associated frontal boundaries move across the state. Warm air advection has developed this morning ahead of a low pressure system, broad upper level trough. Surface dew points are slowly increasing west of the Missouri River with readings in the low to mid 50s. An area of high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into the CWA later tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday. This may help set the stage for low clouds, or fog over a good portion of the CWA, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The high begins to get pushed east late Tuesday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
254 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue into the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
The elongated upper level ridge spread across the southern CONUS will be split by TS Nicholas.
331 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure continues to control the area today, but expect to see a pattern shift over the next few days. Upper level ridge aloft will shift eastward Tuesday, loosening its grip over the southeast CONUS as the remnants of Nicholas approach. 31 Main focus for the fcst period will be with a pattern shift as the airmass transitions to what becomes the remnants of TS Nicholas phasing with a fairly weak upper trough.
At the surface, troughing has deepened over western KS and allowed for gusty southerly winds to usher in warmer air with some locations already in the low 90s.
VFR will generally prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the S Appalachians. Garuckas/KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 68 84 68 / 0 20 10 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 88 68 84 67 / 0 20 10 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 65 87 66 83 66 / 0 20 10 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 63 85 63 / 0 10 10 40 30.
Moisture has been on the increase with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s and the CU field pushing well north today. The main story continues to be TS Nicholas which will make landfall along the TX coast tonight and then track NE into the Lower MS Valley over the next few days. Models are still trying to sort out the interaction, or lack thereof, between Nicholas and the upper trough pushing through the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This trough will push a weak front south toward the northern parts of the Mid- South toward the middle of the week. Clouds and increased rain chances will keep temps cooler across north MS.
253 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A weak cold front has moved through most of the forecast area this afternoon. The upper flow is nearly zonal behind the advancing cold front. The atmosphere will be fairly saturated, with model consensus giving the highest POPS from 40-50 percent to areas west of Cody through Broken Bow mid morning. With a cooler airmass in place, kept highs mostly in the lower 70s. Skies become clear Tuesday night with weak high pressure over the region.
A trailing cold front, currently between Minot and Williston extending into the southwest, will continue to slowly progress southeastward. The drier air behind the front and high pressure building in should make for a pleasant day Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
929 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week.
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will push a warm front back through our forecast area tonight and early Tuesday.
730 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week.
654 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Weak instability along and behind a cold front has brought about a few isolated thunderstorms early this evening. A trailing cold front, currently between Minot and Williston extending into the southwest, will continue to slowly progress southeastward. The drier air behind the front and high pressure building in should make for a pleasant day Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue into the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
653 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A weak cold front has moved through most of the forecast area this afternoon. The upper flow is nearly zonal behind the advancing cold front. The atmosphere will be fairly saturated, with model consensus giving the highest POPS from 40-50 percent to areas west of Cody through Broken Bow mid morning. With a cooler airmass in place, kept highs mostly in the lower 70s. Skies become clear Tuesday night with weak high pressure over the region.
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warm and mostly quiet weather persists for one more day, as the area remains along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered across the southern Appalachian Valley.
913 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue into the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
535 PM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof pushing through the Northern Plains, with next upper trof already moving from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has pushed through all but south central SD. However, next trof quickly moves in this evening and overnight, with additional showers/storms especially over our southwestern 2/3rd of zones.
653 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Thunderstorms become likely late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a cold front approaches.
A cold front will begin to enter the northwest zones Tuesday, and have brought the boundary through KDHT late Tuesday morning. This flow will help to bring a couple of upper level short wave troughs across the area which will bring a cold front into the Panhandles. The cold front will move into the northwest CWA on Tuesday and this along with an upper level short wave will help to spark showers and thunderstorms across this area late in the afternoon or evening.
High pressure continues to control the area today, but expect to see a pattern shift over the next few days. Upper level ridge aloft will shift eastward Tuesday, loosening its grip over the southeast CONUS as the remnants of Nicholas approach. 31 Main focus for the fcst period will be with a pattern shift as the airmass transitions to what becomes the remnants of TS Nicholas phasing with a fairly weak upper trough.
545 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will push a warm front back through our forecast area tonight and early Tuesday.
Winds will be light from the south behind high pressure over the southern Appalachians. Afternoon temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 80s, with a few spots into the upper 80s. High pressure then starts to break down tomorrow as surface cold front gradually drops southeast towards the area.
This batch of showers is more anafrontal type now as the lower level boundary continues to sag into the area. Clouds and slightly cooler temps behind the frontal boundary help to keep a gradient from north to south across the forecast area today. Not much relief from the higher dewpoints as the weak front stalls and drier air associated with the high pressure remains focused to the northeast of the forecast area. Profiler data is showing the low level jet has increased as the models progged. Latest CAMs and HREF continue to trend further south with the frontal zone and much of the guidance has the higher coverage of SHRA just to the south of the terminals.
311 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place over the forecast area today, although some weakening of the ridge, mainly across the northeastern part of the forecast area, will occur as an upper level short wave trough moves over the Rockies and onto the central High Plains. This breaking down of the ridge will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the eastern part of the forecast area while on the Caprock neutral thickness values relative to yesterday should result in highs nearly identical to Monday's. Upslope northeast to east low flow onto the high terrain from southern Colorado to the Raton Mesa is likely to initiate scattered thunderstorms which the models show some consistency in bringing southeastward across northeastern New Mexico and into the western Texas Panhandle this evening.
Temperatures were exhibiting a bit of a ridge/valley split. Ridges were generally in the upper 60s to around 70, but the valleys and spots that have good radiational cooling were down in the middle 60s. For Today, high pressure cell will move off to the east and we'll get into a deeper southwesterly flow. Diurnally driven Cu field will develop by late morning, and some higher cloud cover associated with tropical cyclone Nicholas will start to move into southern KY. For tonight, well advertised cold front off to the north will drop southward into Indiana.
153 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather today.
The cyclone and its associated showers and thunderstorms will continue moving north- northeastward across extreme southeast Texas today. Meanwhile, our area will see weak upper level ridging build in from the west as Nicholas pushes off to the east.
439 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 The Florida Keys are currently on the southwestern periphery of a ridge that extends over the southeast, which is supporting gentle to moderate breezes.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 83 67 81 / 20 20 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 82 66 82 / 10 10 40 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 81 66 81 / 10 10 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 83 64 82 / 10 10 40 30 40.
Surface analysis early this morning places a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast United States while Hurricane Nicholas is just southwest of Houston.
127 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Thunderstorms become likely late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a cold front approaches.
This will push a cold front towards central Missouri late this afternoon.
1005 PM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof pushing through the Northern Plains, with next upper trof already moving from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has pushed through all but south central SD. However, next trof quickly moves in this evening and overnight, with additional showers/storms especially over our southwestern 2/3rd of zones.
This is indicative of less than favorable fire weather conditions brought on by a flat upper ridge build into into the area through Tuesday, and a surface thermal trough strengthening in NorCal and extend into SW Oregon.
405 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Persistent upper level ridging that has kept the area dry the last few days has broken down and shifted eastward allowing moisture to return to the area.
The clouds and precipitation should keep highs in the lower to middle 80s, with warmest temperatures in southern TN and northeast AL, and cooler readings further south and west.
Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with weak high pressure over the region.
A cold front will begin to enter the northwest this morning and will switch the winds to out of the north. A cold front will begin to enter the northwest zones Tuesday, and have brought the boundary through KDHT late Tuesday morning. This flow will help to bring a couple of upper level short wave troughs across the area which will bring a cold front into the Panhandles. The cold front will move into the northwest CWA on Tuesday and this along with an upper level short wave will help to spark showers and thunderstorms across this area late in the afternoon or evening.
Isolated showers are possible overnight for much of the area, then scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected on Tuesday with the higher coverage expected over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf of Mexico waters along the Lower Texas Coast from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.
1244 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A weak cold front has moved through most of the forecast area this afternoon. The upper flow is nearly zonal behind the advancing cold front. The atmosphere will be fairly saturated, with model consensus giving the highest POPS from 40-50 percent to areas west of Cody through Broken Bow mid morning. With a cooler airmass in place, kept highs mostly in the lower 70s. Skies become clear Tuesday night with weak high pressure over the region.
1105 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warm and mostly quiet weather persists for one more day, as the area remains along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered across the southern Appalachian Valley.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance near the Eastern Bahamas will traverse the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the next 3-4 days and make its approach towards the Carolinas. Unfortunately, for Texas and portions of the Central Gulf Coast states, the aforementioned disturbance in the Atlantic along with the lack of any meaningful trough over the CONUS will prevent Nicholas and his remnants from moving much over the next 5 days.
1257 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week.
320 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather today.
Some valley locations are also running similar to last night on their temperature traces, so will allow for slightly cooler lows at those sites. Ridging aloft stretches east/west across the southern CONUS, while the prevailing westerlies are just to our north. There is a weakness in the ridge over the south central CONUS, which Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is heading north into. As the wave moves east, it will deepen southward into the weakness in the ridge on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Nicholas will move slowly inland and weaken/degrade, with deep tropical moisture getting picked up ahead of the trough.
The highest instability will be just north of the front from Dodge City south and east. Additional storms are expected to form on the high plains with the upslope flow north of the front and move southeastward into western Kansas this evening. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, with mainly 80s north to near 90 south.
Went on the cooler side of guidance again given favorable conditions for nocturnal radiational cooling.
331 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Eau Claire WI to Oelwein IA. The cold front will likely move out of the area between 6 AM and 7 AM. For tonight, high pressure will build in across the area.
/Issued 720 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ High pressure continues to control the area today, but expect to see a pattern shift over the next few days. Upper level ridge aloft will shift eastward Tuesday, loosening its grip over the southeast CONUS as the remnants of Nicholas approach. 31 Main focus for the fcst period will be with a pattern shift as the airmass transitions to what becomes the remnants of TS Nicholas phasing with a fairly weak upper trough.