Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak trough of low pressure will move through the area at the surface shifting winds to the northeast this evening before coming light and variable overnight. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the low 50s across northern zones to upper 50s along the KS/OK border.
139 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Drier conditions and cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday.
451 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
This evening and tomorrow Our County Warning Area is in for a beautiful weekend as a high pressure ridge builds, bringing clear skies and mild temperatures. Tonight in the San Luis Valley, temperatures will be near the freezing mark with wet bulb difference being just a degree or two. In certain spots in the valley, the temperature may briefly touch the freezing mark in places near river banks and other places, but not enough to warrant issuance of freeze or frost warnings.
A single above normal temperature day arrives on Saturday as a W-E thermal axis sets up across the region along/ahead of a cold front.
This warm advection and warmer air will be shortlived and will mainly affect tomorrow before another cold front is ushered through the area. Cloudy conditions tonight with warmer temperatures tomorrow. Tonight, the warm front will move into the area the main trof slowly moves east through time.
427 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains which will affect the upper Great Lakes tonight.
High pressure builds over the region for the weekend.
Sunny and warm today, with breezy southeast winds this afternoon in the Lower Snake River Plain.
(Through Saturday) The passage of a cold front this morning will cause temperatures for the near term to be more seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, even as surface and upper level ridging begins to move in.
1239 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today through Saturday) Subtropical Ridge remains overhead today with weak ridging at the surface. A strong thermal ridge also lingers. An inverted trough moving onshore the lower Texas coast tonight will move farther west over central/southern Texas and northeastern Mexico on Saturday splitting the Subtropical Ridge. The moisture and weakening of the thermal ridge leads to "cooler" high temperatures well shy of any records on Saturday, though still above normal.
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) A weak upper wave to the north has provided some increase in cloud cover across far northeast Oklahoma with marginally cooler temperatures this afternoon in that area. Elsewhere across eastern Oklahoma, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s.
Saturday brings us temperatures a few degrees warmer than we have seen today, but still generally in the mid-upper 70s in most places.
1154 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures will remain warm with widespread 80s and 90s over the next few days thanks to persistent ridging overhead and above- normal boundary layer temps. Drier low-levels will aid in radiational cooling patterns for the overnight time frames leading to "cooler" mornings with more lows in the 60s with 50s across the northern tier of Lea and the high terrain above 4000ft. We'll see a slow expansion of the ridge to the east with the center displaced over N TX instead of the Rio Concho by Sat, but this will have little effect on the ambient weather pattern.
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 An upper ridge continues to be centered over Texas this morning and northwest flow is over the Great Lakes. Also, an upper low is located in the northern Plains. The upper low will track along the Canadian border today and tonight and through the Great Lakes Saturday. The upper ridge will shift westward Saturday and Saturday night toward the Four Corners region. Drier air is over the region with dew points mainly in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure will be over the area today but a cold front will move from the Plains toward Arkansas tonight. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to around 70 degrees and in the lower 60s to lower 70s Saturday night.
We do expect to warm up into the 80's the next 2 afternoons, but low rain chances will start to work their way in during the weekend ahead of the next cold frontal passage.
Water vapor analysis indicates the mature extratropical cyclone continuing to spin over SW Manitoba. Additional development of showers are possible along a cold front aloft tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours, although confidence is low in this materializing as dry air continues to move into the area.
1110 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Rest of Today) Northeast flow is advecting cool and drier air into the the region this morning thanks to a high pressure cell over northwest Indiana. Temperatures will climb into the lower 70s by midday and into the mid to upper 70s for afternoon highs.
225 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Issued 225 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Clouds starting to thicken up ahead of approaching trough.
449 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Cool high pressure will persist through the weekend.
343 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Discussion/Marine --Unsettled Pattern-- Warm advection regime ahead of approaching upper trough which takes on a negative tilt sends a band of rain showers into the region very late tonight/early Saturday, mainly after 09Z/5AM.
Moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere remains quite limited. Clouds will help keep temperatures warmer than last night, with lows in the 50s expected. The resulting powerful cyclone will then slow down and buckle the flow a bit, allowing troughing to amplify significantly over the eastern US in tandem with ridging out west. A weak surface reflection of the approaching upper-level wave will also deepen as the trough amplifies.
Tomorrow, although forecast soundings suggest some subtle moistening of the lower troposphere, cloud streamers that will likely form along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys as well as any convection propagating off the Florida Mainland in the afternoon hours will battle dry air.
142 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
Model RH fields and HREF probabilities would indicate the low clouds slowly decreasing from west to east into this evening. Otherwise, a cold front lies along the western edge of our CWA, and this feature is expected to move only slowly eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight, not entirely clearing the area until sometime around 12Z on Saturday. It looks to be mainly dry, though cannot rule out a stray sprinkle in the afternoon as an upper level vort lobe swings around an upper level low located over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Even with weak cold air advection, the enhanced mixing will allow for highs into the upper 70s west of Interstate 29, trending downward to the lower 70s east of there.
248 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low situated over northern ND/southwest Manitoba with upper ridging spanning across central/southern TX. At the surface, ridging is centered over the Ohio Valley with some return flow across the Plains. A warm front extends from far southwest KS into western OK. One final piece of energy is forecast to dive down the backside of the trough Sat night and will allow the upper trough to finally start to push east. In addition, this will bring another shot of cooler/drier air for Sun. Deep upper trough will encompass the eastern CONUS to start the work week with strong northwest flow across the Plains.
1250 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 An upper level trough currently located over the Northern Great Plains will push eastward today bringing a chance for showers across our area today. Highs will vary across Kansas with portions of south-central and central Kansas seeing highs in the 70s and 80s while highs may reach the low 90s in far southern Kansas. Temperatures should rebound with highs in the mid 80s in central Kansas and highs in the low into the low 90s.
Currently across the region, a strong upper trough was spinning over the Dakotas with an embedded compact short wave trough diving southeast across South Dakota and another poised to dive southeast out of western North Dakota. A little closer to home, a shorter wavelength trough passed through the local area and provided scattered showers and a few storms this morning but the lift has since shifted east and we are left with widespread low cloud cover gradually decaying from west to east. And even if they do, the low level moisture will be held in place as the boundary layer decouples. Current dewpoints are in the low 50s, and in places where clearing occurs right around or after sunset would expect temperatures to fall and close that dewpoint depression rather quickly.
1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today through Saturday) Cool start to the morning so far with a few areas already in the upper 40s, and most of the mid state in the low to mid 50s. Westerly winds around 10 mph will mix the low levels a bit, and dewpoints should get down to the low 40s and even upper 30s.
358 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains which will affect the upper Great Lakes tonight.
The lighter winds overnight combined with a fairly dry airmass will allow for strong radiational cooling, with lows mostly in the 40s expected over the plains and upper 20s and 30s in the high country. High temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer than today, with another day of sun-filled skies.
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today and Tonight) Above normal temperatures will persist across the area again today, as upper level high pressure resides over the area.
While mid-level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes down to the Deep South will begin to flatten later this evening, high pressure off to the west will help continue this dry stretch wev've seen over the past week. Dew points will begin to rise increasing moisture/humidity within the atmosphere Saturday thanks to an approaching trough. Highs will range from the low 80s across the north east to the upper 90s across the west.
1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Today through Saturday) With the front now to our south, a pleasantly cool and dry airmass is filtering south through Central AL with dewpoints in the lower 50s across our north. This orientation will result in beautiful conditions today beginning with morning temps in the 50s north to mid 60s south warming up into the lower/mid 80s by the afternoon with mostly clear skies, but the best part will be the low humidity. Efficient radiational cooling tonight will lead to area- wide lows in the 50s and perhaps and few readings in the upper 40s in the cooler valley locations. Slightly warmer on Saturday once boundary layer winds become southeasterly, but without any moisture return another sunny, dry day is forecast.
Upper level ridging centered over Texas will slide east towards the northern Gulf through Saturday keeping subsidence in place across the region. Deep northerly flow between the ridge and upper trough over the mid-Atlantic will also usher in re-enforcing drier air into the area. The near term remains really a temperature forecast with values being slightly "cooler" than the past few days. Due to the warm Gulf temps, the beaches and barrier islands should only drop into the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures Saturday are expected to be a degree or two warmer compared to today, rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s as the upper ridge slides further east.
Upper level low pressure will track eastward across the Northern Plains today. A cold front will move southeast across the area this morning on the backside of the system. Temperatures will actually be warmer today behind the front. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with another day of deep mixing. By mid to late week, the flow will decrease as upper level ridging builds eastward from the Rockies ahead of a long wave trough progressing eastward into the Pacific northwest and western Canada.
The highest rain chances with this system will be tonight and Sat morning. As the low level flow veers into the south tonight, there should be enough moisture return to initiate some scattered precip, even over southern sections of west Kentucky and se Missouri. Highs Sat will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Rest of tonight) Quiet/seasonably mild conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Fri evening, as high pressure gradually settles eastward into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Sfc winds for the most part have decoupled this Fri evening as well, but drier in place at the lower levels will likely offset the development of any for heading into the early morning hrs.
955 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure builds in from the northwest overnight, then becomes centered off the Carolina coast by Saturday night.
Currently across the region, a strong upper trough was spinning over the Dakotas with an embedded compact short wave trough diving southeast across South Dakota and another poised to dive southeast out of western North Dakota. A little closer to home, a shorter wavelength trough passed through the local area and provided scattered showers and a few storms this morning, but the lift has since shifted east and we are left with widespread low cloud cover gradually decaying from west to east. And even if they do, the low level moisture will be held in place as the boundary layer decouples. Current dewpoints are in the lower 50s, and in places where clearing occurs right around or after sunset would expect temperatures to fall and close that dewpoint depression rather quickly.
747 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Much cooler and drier air will continue to move into the region today, as high pressure slides over the Mid Atlantic States.
559 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Through the weekend, broad upper ridging will retrograde to the west and become highly amplified as a significant upper trough digs across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes area.
745 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Aviation --Unsettled Pattern-- Warm advection regime ahead of approaching upper trough which takes on a negative tilt sends a band of rain showers into the region very late tonight/early Saturday, mainly after 09Z/5AM.
908 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Drier conditions and cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday.
Current satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly sunny skies across the CWA with light and variable winds with a weak cold front moving through northeastern CO and western NE. Models show this high pressure moving eastward while a large upper air ridge develops over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. For Saturday, forecast guidance shows the western ridge starting to move eastward with the front part of the ridge making it over the CWA by the evening turning the flow aloft northwesterly. Daytime highs for Saturday look to be in the lower to upper 80s range followed by overnight lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
KED Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low situated over northern ND/southwest Manitoba with upper ridging spanning across central/southern TX. At the surface, ridging is centered over the Ohio Valley with some return flow across the Plains. A warm front extends from far southwest KS into western OK. One final piece of energy is forecast to dive down the backside of the trough Sat night and will allow the upper trough to finally start to push east. In addition, this will bring another shot of cooler/drier air for Sun. Deep upper trough will encompass the eastern CONUS to start the work week with strong northwest flow across the Plains. Some altocu/accas near the Oklahoma border this evening along a warm front which will become nearly stationary. A weak cold front will move across central Kansas on Saturday.
605 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) A weak upper wave to the north has provided some increase in cloud cover across far northeast Oklahoma with marginally cooler temperatures this afternoon in that area. Elsewhere across eastern Oklahoma, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s.
Most areas will be substantially warmer than last night.
(This afternoon through Saturday) The normal to slightly-below-normal temperatures and dry conditions today are courtesy of the cold front passage yesterday and continued advection of low- and mid-level dry air out of the northeast/east. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s across much of the CWA, which will be a tad warmer than today. The upper-level flow over the OH and TN River Valleys will transition from weak ridging today to quasi-zonal flow tomorrow.
As the upper level ridge continues to build over the region, combining with a deepening thermal trough along the southern coast, the low level moisture will begin to scour off from the ridge levels downward.
646 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
532 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The mid-level trough to the north was moving to the upper Midwest this afternoon while high pressure began to build over the eastern Pacific.
We continue to see a signal for stronger winds tomorrow afternoon, with decent vertical mixing in the lower levels. Water vapor analysis indicates the mature extratropical cyclone continuing to spin over SW Manitoba. Additional development of showers are possible along a cold front aloft tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours, although confidence is low in this materializing as dry air continues to move into the area.
This will help saturate the low to mid levels with PWs increasing to slightly over an inch. Gehring (Issued 225 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Clouds starting to thicken up ahead of approaching trough.
854 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
1014 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Cool high pressure will persist through the weekend.
611 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Drier conditions and cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday.
727 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Through Saturday) The passage of a cold front this morning will cause temperatures for the near term to be more seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, even as surface and upper level ridging begins to move in.
Activity to diminish into tonight with N/NE winds across most of the area and notably cooler/drier conditions across the Nature Coast with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Elsewhere, expect lows in the low/mid 70s. Weak high pressure building into the Deep South with lower dew point airmass filtering into N FL then C FL Saturday for more comfortable feels like temps. High pressure building into the region will keep northeast winds across the waters with evening surges possible through the weekend.
220 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Aviation --Unsettled Pattern-- Warm advection regime ahead of approaching upper trough which takes on a negative tilt sends a band of rain showers into the region very late tonight/early Saturday, mainly after 09Z/5AM. Cyclonic flow/cold advection pattern becomes better established by Sunday afternoon, so breezy/cooler conditions will augment the ongoing rain shower activity.
As the mid level trough associated with the previous day's precipitation moves east expect the weather to remain fair for the forseeable future. After a warm day on Saturday, with temperatures back into the 80s a cold front will cool things back down for Sunday and a good portion of the upcoming work week. Mid level flow aloft will become predominantly northwesterly, as the base of a broad mid level trough remains just east of the forecast area. At the surface a broad ridge will dominate the majority of the central CONUS, which will act to keep temperatures seasonally comfortable and conditions dry.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Sunday and generally in the 60s. The upcoming week is then dominated by a building ridge.
A cold front will cross the region on Sunday. This will bring a return to cooler conditions for much of the work week. Still fairly dry in the low levels, but some light measurable precipitation will occur. Southerly flow and warm air advection on the back side of a high pressure system will allow temperatures to rise back into the lower to mid 70s. This will push a cold front across the region. A broad longwave trough over the eastern half of the U.
A large anticyclone remains over the southern CONUS. A broad ridge over the Pacific extends east into the western CONUS. The upper pattern continues to support northwest flow over the region as the western ridge builds slowing the eastward progression of the longer wave features.
(Today through Sunday Night) An upper ridge continues over the southern U. this morning with an upper trough over the Midwest. The high will shift to the western U. tonight and the upper trough will dip into the central and eastern states and this will continue on Sunday. A warm front will move into the state this morning. This will bring moisture and warmer temperatures to the area today ahead of the next cold front in the Plains. The cold front will move into north Arkansas late tonight and clear the southern border by Sunday evening.
And while humidity to as low as the lower 20s, it's not low enough for red flag conditions. The clouds continue to move through the region this evening, and then low temperatures drop mostly into the lower 50s. Slight cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, but still a pretty nice day with sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s, with continued northwest breezes 15 to 25 mph.
A break in the heat! Late Sunday, an amplifying longwave trof over the eastern seaboard will drive southward a dry cold front into the southeast US.
After a chilly but seasonal start today, high pressure rebuilds. Then mid-week, a feature that currently is only depicting mid- level clouds will transit the ridge returning temperatures closer to seasonal norms. High and mid level clouds will stream across the region today under northwest flow transitioning to ridging on Sunday.
Dry conditions are expected this afternoon into early this evening, then a cold front will move through the PAH forecast area late this evening and overnight. Ahead of the cold front today, much warmer air will return along with dew points climbing back into the lower 60s. High today will reach the lower 80s north and east, to the upper 80s south and west. Cooler air will lag well behind the cold front, so highs Sunday will still be near to a few degrees above normal in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Northwest winds will help bring cooler air into the region.
Today the upper level winds will transition to a more highly amplified pattern with a ridge in the Rockies and a trough around the Great Lakes. Tonight an upper level short wave will be accompanied with stronger cold front which will move through western Kansas. Lows will be in the lower 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the southeast.
Unfortunately, warmer conditions return tomorrow and Sunday. A strong cold front will move across the Midsouth on Sunday.
(Through Saturday) The passage of a cold front this morning will cause temperatures for the near term to be more seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, even as surface and upper level ridging begins to move in. A weak cold front will approach the area on late Sunday, but moisture return ahead of it looks minimal currently with mainly dry conditions expected. Highs are expected to be mainly in the lower 90s on Sunday with overnights lows ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.