Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
323 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Temperatures have slowly warmed into the 70s making this afternoon about 20 degrees cooler then yesterday. Cooler overnight lows are expected to drop down into the upper 40s across central and eastern North Dakota and 50s out west. A strong upper level ridge is going to continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies tomorrow. A strong low-level thermal ridge will intern build over the High Plains with some bleed over into western North Dakota. This will shift the low level thermal ridge over to the western Dakotas.
418 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight, then begin to move slowly east Saturday.
244 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 18Z surface data has the main cold front running from the arrowhead of Minnesota southwest into Nebraska. Dew points were in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front with 40s and 50s behind the cold front.
Otherwise the cold front over MN will slowly move from north to south across srn WI from sunrise Sat into the early afternoon. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with the warmer temperatures across the west, where clearing is expected earlier in the afternoon. Clouds will push back into the area from the northwest this evening into tonight, as a cold front approaches. Widespread clouds and the showers/storms on Saturday, along with late day cool advection will keep temperatures a little cooler, with highs in the 70s.
249 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Broad upper troughing is centered SW to NE across Missouri this afternoon. The lowest 200-300 mb or so of the column is still quite dry over the quad state and that seems to be partially responsible for those showers losing intensity/dissipating as they move east. Saturday the surface reflection/MCV from the upper low is progged to be centered over the area. 8 inch range and the weak wind vectors aloft close to the upper low suggest slow storm motions - so have been concerned with locally heavy rainfall/flooding potential.
Ridging across the Eastern Seaboard and Mid Atlc region will allow for continuation of onshore flow locally, with some morning showers and perhaps a few early storms at the coast shifting inland by midday.
1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Summary: A few showers and thunderstorms, some possible severe, will be possible today with a cold front.
The high amplitude ridge of high pressure is hanging strong over the Northern Rockies this afternoon, and will linger in the region through the first half of the day tomorrow. The combination of very hot and dry conditions, along with gusty winds from the cold front, will be a recipe for critical fire weather conditions, allowing for existing or new fires to spread quickly.
1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 (Today and tonight) The mid-level trough axis over the area will slowly push east and with it, and the primary chances for precipitation will be east of the trough axis across southeast and south central Oklahoma. Will keep some low POPs in northern and central Oklahoma tonight, but again the best chances of precipitation will be farther south closer to and ahead of the longwave trough axis.
With the high moisture content, any storms will be efficient rainfall producers, so locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding will be possible.
East to northeast flow aloft continues today across our region on the southern side of mid/upper level high that is currently located across the Great Basin.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) The upper trough to our northwest over the mid MS River Valley is working to develop showers and storms over the area, but so far has struggled with the drier air aloft. Models do disagree a bit on the strength of the instability/shear, but it remains on the lower end, so widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
High temperatures in the low 90s with light winds across the Panhandles. An amplified ridge of high pressure continues over the western CONUS. Just to the east of the Panhandles, a trough continues to bring precipitation chances to the Ark-La-Tex region and is keeping the CWA under northerly flow aloft. Temperatures for most will rise into the low 90s by late afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today.
The upper ridge currently over the intermountain west will shift eastward into the Plains during the period, with no precip chances expected. The high will begin to move eastward during the day tomorrow, allowing winds to start to shift back to the southeast. Highs will still be on the slightly cooler side into tomorrow in the upper 60s and 70s.
The low-level mean layer ridge is centered over the extreme western North Atlantic, driving deep easterlies through South Florida and the Keys. The wind profile supports convective streamers, and no wonder a thundery cloud line persists in the lee of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front extended southward from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south and southwestward bisecting Nebraska. With some lingering influence from the mid/upper ridge situated over the Central Great Basin, we think coverage of storms will remain somewhat limited. The mid/upper trough over the Mississippi Valley area is progged to retrograde later in the week possibly bringing some diurnally driven showers and storms to eastern Kansas and some low pops were maintained during the afternoon/evening hours. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through the period with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Precip chances will spread further west and north as mid level vorticity associated with the nearly stationary trough works into western KY overnight. Though given the high PWATs, heavy downpours are possible.
105 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 A stalled front will linger across Georgia while high pressure builds off the New England coastline and extends across the area. Highs later today will be around 90 once again with Saturday's lows just a touch warmer more in the upper 60s to lower 70s range. Mid-level ridge will be situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast through the period.
144 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure overhead will slide to the east tonight and Saturday. Dewpoints surging into the lower 60s along the spine of the Appalachians are well demarcated by fair weather cumulus in current GOES imagery, so the pristine air mass's hours are numbered.
The models show the better focus, a sfc/850mb cold front, across scntl Neb and nrn KS. The strong Canadian-Pacific high pressure building through the upper Midwest and srn Canada should drop dew points into the 40s tonight and Saturday, and then 30s in some areas Saturday night. The cooler guidance blend is in place Saturday night. The forecast lows in place are cooler than the NBM 50th percentile while the high temperature forecast is warmer than the 50th.
Ridging continues to sit overhead resulting in calm winds and a neutral flow. As we get into the weekend we will see the ridge move north of the area. Ridging will start to move north overnight which will result in an increase of winds out of the east and southeast.
1201 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Dry weather through early Saturday as high pressure remains in control. Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue today as a high pressure, at the surface and aloft, remains over the region through the period. Today's high temperatures will reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging to the lower 70s over the highest elevations.
Broad upper troughing is centered SW to NE across Missouri this afternoon. The lowest 200-300 mb or so of the column is still quite dry over the quad state and that seems to be partially responsible for those showers losing intensity/dissipating as they move east. Saturday the surface reflection/MCV from the upper low is progged to be centered over the area. 8 inch range and the weak wind vectors aloft close to the upper low suggest slow storm motions - so have been concerned with locally heavy rainfall/flooding potential.
Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure tracks across the forecast area. Temperatures have slowly warmed into the 70s making this afternoon about 20 degrees cooler then yesterday. Cooler overnight lows are expected to drop down into the upper 40s across central and eastern North Dakota and 50s out west. A strong upper level ridge is going to continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies tomorrow. A strong low-level thermal ridge will intern build over the High Plains with some bleed over into western North Dakota. This will shift the low level thermal ridge over to the western Dakotas.
715 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 (This evening through Saturday Night) The moist pattern continues over the region with a general upper level trough centered just to our north through the short term period and minor disturbances rotating through the base of the trough. This basically means the high precipitable water environment will support slow moving thunderstorms capable of delivering a quick 1 to 3 in very isolated locations.
Significant, perhaps record-breaking upper-level ridging is expected to take shape with all models in excellent agreement with 590+ dam heights across the majority of the western US.
620 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper ridge is over the western half of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of an upper trough. High temperatures today will mostly be in the 70s and 80s but will likely be warmer than yesterday across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico. High temperatures Saturday will be similar to today or a degree or two warmer.
626 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Today has been our day of transition from a relatively dry and warm period to a wetter and slightly cooler several days. However, they are moving into a weak ridge so they have tended to weaken as they approach. Over the past few hours, temperatures over portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi that are under more influence from the ridge have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s. Tomorrow a weak longwave trough will approach the Mississippi River the the Ridge over the Southeast will shift closer to the East coast.
(The rest of tonight) The low pressure system that brought locally heavy rainfall early this morning to NE OK is now southeast of SGF and moving slowly east away from the region. A lot of the short-term guidance suggests that the clearing skies on the back side of the low, combined with light winds and wet grounds from rains earlier in the day will set the stage for locally dense fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning across the Ozarks and far NE OK. Lacy (Tomorrow through Friday) General trend over the next several days will be for warm and humid conditions with more or less daily, mainly diurnally drive showers and thunderstorms with the presence of weak upper trough over the south central U.
Ridging will start to move north overnight which will result in an increase of winds out of the east and southeast.
931 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 An upper trough continues to spin over southern Missouri this evening. The trough will drift slowly east bringing small chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid- South overnight. SJM Today has been our day of transition from a relatively dry and warm period to a wetter and slightly cooler several days. However, they are moving into a weak ridge so they have tended to weaken as they approach. Over the past few hours, temperatures over portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi that are under more influence from the ridge have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s. Tomorrow a weak longwave trough will approach the Mississippi River the the Ridge over the Southeast will shift closer to the East coast.
18Z surface data has the main cold front running from the arrowhead of Minnesota southwest into Nebraska. Dew points were in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front with 40s and 50s behind the cold front.
Upper ridge over the interior western US was at maximum amplitude today resulting in more record high temperatures. A short wave trough off the west coast will come inland Saturday morning and move northeastward through Oregon Saturday afternoon and eastern Washington Saturday night. The trough will maintain itself even as it passes through the northwest flank of the ridge.
/28/ This Evening through Tomorrow: Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a low pressure system along the MO/AR border lofting moisture northward from the Gulf Coast toward the Midwest. Activity will most likely be focused on the nose of returning Gulf moisture around the Highway 84 corridor and then wherever the passing upper-level trough can spur development farther north.
943 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 (Issued 943 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022) There is still a decent line of thunderstorms along the cold front that is currently stretching from Eagle River to Rochester. The low level shear is better in the northern part, but bulk shear is low everywhere.
654 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure slides across New England today and Saturday bringing fair weather and a warming trend into the Holiday weekend.
The MCV/trough interaction that has dominated our weather pattern for days has shifted eastward for the time being. This pattern will push a cold front southward into northern Oklahoma. The rub is that they all depict that convection in slightly different locations - the HRRR and ARW depict convection along the cold front in northern Oklahoma, while the NAM 3km, NSSL, and FV3 all depict convection near and south of the Red River at the same time. Have opted to introduce 25-35 PoPs area-wide with the highest values covering the northern Oklahoma cold front region and the the western north Texas counties.
An upper ridge over the area will move out into Saturday with an upper low moving across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Increasing onshore flow into the weekend for cooler temperatures.
557 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight, then begin to move slowly east Saturday.
(Rest of tonight) Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, as a positively-sheared mid-level trough drifts slowly southeastward across eastern MO/western IL. This, along with light southeasterly flow in the low-levels, will maintain a very deep layer of moist air across the region, with precipitable water values expected to remain in the 1. Regarding temperatures, we expect a warmer night, with lows on Saturday morning only falling a few more degrees into the lower 70s.
939 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight, then begin to move slowly east Saturday.
Increasing cloud coverage is expected overnight in association with moist advection ahead of the next low pressure system. Warm, moist advection will foster above average temperature and increasing cloud cover through Saturday as low pressure propagates nely from the plains. Thunderstorms will return Saturday with aforementioned low pressure and warm advection.
GOES-18 Water Vapor Imagery showcases an impressive high amplitude ridge axis directly overhead the Northern Rockies this morning. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening as hot, dry, and windy conditions will develop as a dry cold front passes through the region.
Upper level ridging across the western CONUS is expected to prevail and build eastward throughout the forecast period. As for today, very little fluctuation in temperatures are anticipated as the upper ridge begins to transition eastward. Some patchy ground fog may be possible this morning as well, especially across the northern FA (north of the highway 2 corridor) where lowest temperatures are forecast to occur. Moving into Sunday, latest DESI cluster analysis indicates that a lobe of the upper ridge will begin to build into the northern Plains.
Southwesterly flow aloft becomes established during the near term period as an upper-level ridge builds over the Western Atlantic and an upper-level trough over the central US slowly approaches the Mississippi River Valley. For Sunday, deep-layer southwesterly flow becomes firmly established as the eastern periphery of the upper trough pushes overhead. Additionally, the upper trough is expected to deepen and stretch southwestward into Texas on Sunday. As it deepens, the pressure gradient between this trough and the upper ridge off to the east strengthens, allowing for the southwesterly winds aloft to also increase. Lows will generally be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Across the country a ridge of high pressure will remain across the western half of the United States with a trough across eastern portions of the state.
253 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A nearly stationary mid-level trough over the Mid-MS Valley will provide persistent synoptic-scale lift through the Short Term. Weak upper trof axis will remain draped roughly from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward into Texas for much of the upcoming week as it is trapped between flat ridging along the Carolina coast and a more amplified ridge over the Intermountain West.
However, winds have already responded back to the south in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas ahead of a cold front which is expected to drop down into our area this afternoon. This cold front may be the focus for more shower and thunderstorm development as it reaches about the southeast half of the Texas Panhandle. The southeast Texas Panhandle is also expected to have the weakest cap in place as it is further removed from the center of the upper level high over Utah.
(Today) Today will mark the beginning of a wet, active pattern as a slow- moving area of low pressure moves into the Deep South and Tennessee Valley region.
Daytime Saturday, short range guidance continues to indicate a ~598-dm upper level cut- off ridge will remain fixed over the Great Basin, with longwave troughing east of the Rockies.
Warm, moist advection will foster above average temperature and increasing cloud cover today as low pressure propagates nely from the plains. The risk for scattered showers and a popup storm will return today with aforementioned low pressure and warm advection. Difficult forecast on Sunday, as eastern CONUS ridge is holding strong and is keeping the deepest moisture and best lift over the NW quadrant of the region. Should be a good deal of clouds around, although, if the ridge does amplify a bit during the afternoon could see some breaks in clouds over the south.
Upper level low continues over southern Georgia this evening. This is in line with the high resolution CAMS. High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will remain nearly stationary through Sunday with an upper level trough over the MS River Valley. Although the upper trough will remain west of the region and keep upper level divergence out of the area there will be enough instability to trigger afternoon and evening convection. This will keep the moist onshore flow in place with pwat values remaining around 2 inches and the upper trough remaining west of the region. With the chances of rain and expected cloud cover afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s which will be slightly to several degrees below normal.
/28/ Prior discussion below: This Evening through Tomorrow: Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a low pressure system along the MO/AR border lofting moisture northward from the Gulf Coast toward the Midwest. Activity will most likely be focused on the nose of returning Gulf moisture around the Highway 84 corridor and then wherever the passing upper-level trough can spur development farther north.
1146 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 An upper trough continues to spin over southern Missouri this evening. The trough will drift slowly east bringing small chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid- South overnight. SJM Today has been our day of transition from a relatively dry and warm period to a wetter and slightly cooler several days. However, they are moving into a weak ridge so they have tended to weaken as they approach. Over the past few hours, temperatures over portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi that are under more influence from the ridge have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s. Tomorrow a weak longwave trough will approach the Mississippi River the the Ridge over the Southeast will shift closer to the East coast.
Through the day and into tonight, the low will remain very slow moving. As areas east of the current convection destabilize today, additional convection will increase, with any of the activity capable of locally heavy rain, given the high PW's and modest but persistent 925-850mb moisture transport from the south.
1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper ridge is over the western half of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of an upper trough. High temperatures today will mostly be in the 70s and 80s but will likely be warmer than yesterday across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico. High temperatures Saturday will be similar to today or a degree or two warmer.
A weak upper trough will move over the area this weekend with stronger onshore flow for cooler temperatures.
146 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Labor Day weekend looks to be pleasant with slightly cooler than last week temperatures and dry conditions. The Tri-State area is expected to be under northerly to northeasterly flow aloft as it sits between the positively-tilted upper trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and the upper ridge over the Great Basin. The ridge is expected to remain dominant over the area through the period with an upper low moving east along the Canadian border from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s today for highs and the low to mid 50s overnight. Sunday looks to be slightly warmer with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 50s.
1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (The rest of tonight) The low pressure system that brought locally heavy rainfall early this morning to NE OK is now southeast of SGF and moving slowly east away from the region. A lot of the short-term guidance suggests that the clearing skies on the back side of the low, combined with light winds and wet grounds from rains earlier in the day will set the stage for locally dense fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning across the Ozarks and far NE OK.
1019 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) The upper trough to our northwest over the mid MS River Valley is working to develop showers and storms over the area, but so far has struggled with the drier air aloft. Models do disagree a bit on the strength of the instability/shear, but it remains on the lower end, so widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
Northeast surface winds behind a weak frontal push have increased on the plains bringing isolated convection to the higher terrain. Overnight conditions will be mostly clear with lows in the 50s on the plains and mainly 40s in the high country with mountain valleys dipping into the 30s. For Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin its shift westward and over Colorado bringing mostly dry conditions and another above average day for high temperatures. There may be some lingering moisture that could support isolated storms over the higher terrain mainly south of I-70 by the afternoon.
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonally cool temperatures this holiday weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows dipping to the 40s.
316 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the upper Great Lakes and a ridge over the Rockies. The trough axis moves to the east today. An upper level ridge over the western U. The ridge will flatten late in the week as multiple disturbances move over the top of the ridge.
The increased cloud cover tonight will help hold temperatures several degrees warmer than normal and mainly in the lower 70s again.