Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1000 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A trough a day is keeping Santa away. Some concern for drizzle/freezing drizzle with the low level thermodynamics, but saturation will be an issue. Some high cloud is expected to ride over the lower cloud, but too deep of a dry layer between low and high layers for seeder-feeder processes. Temps would lean toward mostly snow where the higher pcpn threat would lie and early signs point to some accumulations for these areas.
A shift in temperatures toward the warmer side will be underway during the short term period. Along with this, a warm front will start to push into the southwest portion of the state tomorrow morning, and will continue northward thru the day. As a case in point, lows tonight will be generally in the 30's statewide, but will be nearly 20 degrees warmer tomorrow night. Aloft, a flat ridge will start to build across the area thru Friday, until the flow begins to shift to a more southwesterly direction. Cloud cover will start to increase tomorrow morning, notably along and ahead of the warm front, but precipitation is not expected.
Tonight a lee side trough should keep the winds fairly breezy through the night out of the southwest. A plume of warmer 850 mb air will move through western Kansas during the night and this should keep overnight temperatures warmer with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
For the most part, freezing temperatures tonight will be north of the FL/AL Border, with the exception of sheltered low lying areas further south but well away from the immediate coast.
The warm front will lift into southern MI by the evening with temperatures pushing into the 30s.
250 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Chilly high pressure will settle across central NC today and tonight.
113 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Conditions remain quiet tonight as high pressure dominates. High pressure will settle over the area tonight and then shift to our east on Thursday. With the high shifting to our east over the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, the low level flow will become southerly and thus expecting a much warmer day. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 50s. A warm front will lift north from Texas into the lower MS valley Thursday night into Friday morning. The extended looks to be much warmer than normal and quite active. We will also see repeated bouts of rainfall, as a series of low pressure systems and surface fronts moves through the region.
Otherwise, wind speeds have decreased as expected and tomorrow will be another sunny day with slightly warmer temperatures than today. A weak cold front/moisture gradient trails behind the Appalachians as the parent low advects across the Ohio River Valley. The southeast is situated in a weakness between a nascent low over the Mountain West and a mature surface cyclone off the coast of New England to round off the weekend.
1117 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance After seasonable temperatures today and tonight, a warm front will lift up across our area tonight, bringing a quick return of south winds. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees, and Friday in the lower to middle 60s. Lows Thursday night will be what our normal highs should be in the lower to middle 40s, and even warmer readings are expected Friday night in the 50s. With high pressure to our southeast and the approach of a cold front Thursday and Friday, a tightening pressure gradient across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys will result in increasing winds across our region. That said, there is considerable uncertainty in the details of weak cold frontal intrusions and rain chances.
At the surface, generally southwesterly winds are in place with some gusts over 20 mph in southeastern Nebraska as highs climb to the lower 50's for much of the area. Thursday will see similar to slightly warmer highs compared to today, and Friday warmer still as the low-level thermal ridge becomes more and more centered on eastern Nebraska.
1157 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A warming trend with increasing cloud cover can be expected Thursday into Friday as breezy southerly winds bring warmer air into the region. Highs Thursday should be in the low to mid 50s.
1238 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region on Thursday. As of 1235 AM EST Thursday: Winds becoming light for all but the highest elevations early this morning. Otherwise, heights will gradually rebound thru the period as broad upper trofing lifts farther to the NE and away from our region and flat upper ridging slowly builds in its wake. At the sfc, robust high pressure will continue to spread eastward late tonight and tomorrow and is expected to be centered just to our north by the early aftn. The higher elevations will likely see some more low-end gusts later tomorrow night and early Fri, however they should be confined to elevations above roughly 4000ft.
Warm front with light rain and snow passed eastward through our CWA this morning, and skies have partially cleared this afternoon with temperatures rising into the 40s at lower elevations. Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to deepen and consolidate in the Pacific along 135W. Mild air will continue in our CWA until the Pacific trough comes inland Friday. Moisture ahead of the trough will increase in the mountains beginning tonight and over the entire CWA Thursday, with rain below 5000 feet in the lower valleys but increasingly heavy snow in the Idaho mountains. Snow and rain will continue Thursday night as a surface cold front comes in. Snowfall through Friday night will add up to 10 to 16 inches in the west-central Idaho Mountains, with up to two feet on the higher peaks.
The upper air pattern features nearly zonal flow across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with a deep trough of low pressure poised to plow into the West Coast today. At the surface, high pressure has moved east into the Ohio River Valley and southerly flow has taken hold across the Midwest. The latest suite of model guidance has a slightly faster arrival of this storm system and tracks the area of low pressure across northern Missouri and into west central Illinois early Christmas morning with the attendant cold front clearing the CWA by noon.
Temperatures above the surface sit even warmer than yesterday's values but mixing continues to look strongly suppressed by a stout inversion. The first pair arrives Christmas morning with two foci of dPVA, one closer to the I-80 corridor near the low level baroclinic zone and the other from Hwy 14 north.
It is another quiet and chilly night across Middle Tennessee with temperatures already in the low 30s to mid 20s.
The southerly low level flow is expected to continue overnight tonight as a flattening upper level ridge pushes into the Southern Plains. These conditions will aid in warmer temperatures tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s forecast.
High pressure will settle over the area tonight and then shift to our east on Thursday. With the high shifting to our east over the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, the low level flow will become southerly and thus expecting a much warmer day. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 50s. A warm front will lift north from Texas into the lower MS valley Thursday night into Friday morning. The extended looks to be much warmer than normal and quite active. We will also see repeated bouts of rainfall, as a series of low pressure systems and surface fronts moves through the region.
Clear skies and a dry cold airmass over the forecast area this evening as high pressure shifts southeast to become overhead by early Thursday morning. The low level jet will increase enough to be borderline for LLWS late in the period, so this will need to be monitored going forward. Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 56 37 62 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 55 37 61 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 25 53 36 58 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 52 32 57 44 / 0 0 0 0 20.
Mid-level ridging will continue to build across the region through tonight, helping to develop an even milder airmass over the Northern Plains for today.
623 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Much warmer weather is ahead through this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s each day.
319 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Areas of cirrus were passing east across the central Plains early this morning downstream of a modest upper ridge over the Rockies. Periods of cirrus look to continue through Friday evening as the upstream ridge weakens and quick nearly-zonal flow forms. Slightly warmer 850 mb temps today bring highs into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with a stronger round of WAA tonight resulting in putting record high temperatures in jeopardy of being broken.
514 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Considerably warmer Today into Friday as southerly winds become breezy ahead of the next frontal system.
At the surface, high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to slide eastward through period. High temperatures today will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Southeasterly winds will pick up slightly, especially along the coast, due to an increasing pressure gradient as low pressure develops across the Plains. Friday will be warmer with highs well into the 80s, except for the upper 70s at the beaches.
Surface analysis early this morning places a 1024 mb ridge of high pressure from the Appalachians back into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate some high clouds beginning to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley embedded within northwest flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region today. Lows tonight will not be as cold with temperatures in the lower/middle 40s near the Tennessee River and lower 50s along the Mississippi River as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure moves east and southerly winds return on the backside of high pressure. Short term models indicate an area of low pressure in the Rockies and move into the Central Plains by Christmas Eve night. A very warm Christmas Day is expected across the Mid-South as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 70s.
331 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 The warming trend will begin today, and by the looks of the latest model guidance, warmer temps will be here to stay through the end of December. Winds will be strong Friday, with southerly winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible as the Plains trough approaches.
The high pressure is off to the east of us now and will continue to trek in that direction.
WV imagery this morning was showing large scale flow has transitioned since yesterday to a low amplitude ridge pretty much across the CONUS. In particular, the high-minimum record at Norfolk (32/1901) Friday morning followed by record highs in Lincoln (62/1889) and Norfolk (57/1922) Friday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and move through the region on Christmas Day. Much of western KY and se MO could see readings into the lower half of the 70s after morning lows hold in the 60s. Upper-level flow begins nearly zonal with ridging over the Midwest.
Areas of cirrus were passing east across the central Plains early this morning downstream of a modest upper ridge over the Rockies. Periods of cirrus look to continue through Friday evening as the upstream ridge weakens and quick nearly-zonal flow forms. Slightly warmer 850 mb temps today bring highs into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with a stronger round of WAA tonight resulting in putting record high temperatures in jeopardy of being broken.
Under clear skies, 3 AM temperatures across the area were all below freezing, ranging from 25-30 and calm wind. Otherwise, the area of high pressure should shift further east of the region today, allowing a southerly flow to return. Highs on Christmas Eve should warm into the low and mid 60s. Otherwise temperatures could be warmer than what we have now. Unseasonably warm wx conditions will continue heading into the second half of the Christmas weekend, as a weak upper ridge axis lingers across the Gulf region. A second area of low pressure may then develop along the wrn edge of the frontal boundary Tue, before lifting NE into the OH Valley/mid Atlantic regions Wed. Showers are expected to increase Tue into Wed invof of the lingering cold front, as an active SW flow regime develops over much of the SE region.
Temperatures were at or below freezing across much of Central Alabama early this morning, with middle to upper 20s across the northern counties. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 60s. Increasing low level warm air advection overnight will result in much warmer temperatures with lows in the lower 40s west to middle 30s east. Strong low level southwest flow on Friday will bring balmy temperatures to Alabama Christmas Eve, with highs on Friday in the lower 70s southwest to middle 60s northeast.
High pressure extending along the eastern U. Despite plenty of sunshine, temps will be near to slightly cooler than normal, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Highs are expected to reach the lower 20s near the International Border to near 30 degrees in the southern Red River Valley. Soundings indicate weak forcing in the low levels with dry air aloft, reducing the chance for measurable precipitation across a large portion of the area. Impacts are expected to be minimal, but could still cause travel difficulties where sleet or freezing drizzle occur, especially given the expectation of increased travel during this time.
The warming trend will begin today, and by the looks of the latest model guidance, warmer temps will be here to stay through the end of December. Winds will be strong Friday, with southerly winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible as the Plains trough approaches.
427 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Considerably warmer Today into Friday as southerly winds become breezy ahead of the next frontal system.
/Issued 403 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021/ Benign ridge dominated regime persists thru the short term. Continued strong radiational cooling will again allow for below normal overnight lows, though most areas should be mid to low 30s (generally warmer than this morning though). Period still looks to start out warm and dry through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds across the Gulf of Mexico and pushes east.
High pressure will break down with favorable jet ascent overnight, and light rain/snow will be possible north of Pittsburgh and in the Laurel Highlands.
While satellite images show an upper trough off the NCal coast with a long fetch of subtropical moist flow moving into CA. The low approaches the Channel Islands tonight and onshore over SCal Friday morning.
This trough will swing across AZ and NM later in the day. Friday will be even warmer with highs into the mid to upper 80s as record highs expected for Christmas Eve.
558 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Chilly high pressure will settle across central NC today and tonight.
435 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Much warmer weather is ahead through this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s each day.
632 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week along with a warming trend. Christmas Day will be breezy as a low pressure system passes to our north.
Expect cooler temperatures and gusty winds on rain and snow showers increase across northern Arizona. Expect moisture to increase through the day today as a longwave trough approaches the area bringing with it a subtropical moisture tap.
Upper ridge centered near Baja will begin a slow trek eastward in the coming days - increasing heights & warmth locally. In the low levels, the pressure gradient will tighten and allow for some breezy southerly winds.
Dry, quiet weather is expected today under lingering high pressure. Mid and upper-level clouds will build gradually throughout the day as a trough approaches the Ohio River Valley. The trough, and its associated sfc warm front, will cross into the region Friday. Forest/Venango/Clarion/Jefferson County may see a rain/snow mix early Friday morning, precip type will depend on how far north the warm front advances. Ridging Friday afternoon will reduce precip chances, some areas may see light drizzle.
942 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Chilly high pressure will settle across central NC today and tonight.
Temperatures have remained nearly stationary in the lower to middle teens this morning. Highs are expected to reach the lower 20s near the International Border to near 30 degrees in the southern Red River Valley. Soundings indicate weak forcing in the low levels with dry air aloft, reducing the chance for measurable precipitation across a large portion of the area. Impacts are expected to be minimal, but could still cause travel difficulties where sleet or freezing drizzle occur, especially given the expectation of increased travel during this time.
403 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Benign ridge dominated regime persists thru the short term. Continued strong radiational cooling will again allow for below normal overnight lows, though most areas should be mid to low 30s (generally warmer than this morning though). Period still looks to start out warm and dry through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds across the Gulf of Mexico and pushes east.
There have been reports of freezing rain this morning to our west in WI, and this possibility will need monitored, but fcst soundings in cntl Lwr MI this afternoon are supportive of all snow due to evaporative cooling/wet bulbing. The warm front will lift into southern MI by the evening with temperatures pushing into the 30s.
1030 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week along with a warming trend. Christmas Day will be breezy as a low pressure system passes to our north.
1229 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Much warmer weather is ahead through this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s each day.
Skies will remain partly cloudy tonight as an upper-level trough approaches the region. As the upper trough approaches the area, heights will fall, resulting in the formation of a low-level jet max with up to 70 kt at 700 mb and 60 kt at 850 and a Lee cyclone forming over eastern Colorado. Therefore, we will wait until later shifts to determine what to do with the High Wind Watch.
For Tonight, surface ridging will slide east of the southern Appalachians with southerly flow increasing just off the surface with the 850mb jet increasing to 35-40kts. The warmer advection will produce a wide temperature range from the ridge tops and valley. However, the increasing breezy conditions on the ridge tops will keep these areas mixed and milder overnight.
Highs on Christmas Eve should warm into the low and mid 60s. Otherwise temperatures could be warmer than what we have now. Unseasonably warm wx conditions will continue heading into the second half of the Christmas weekend, as a weak upper ridge axis lingers across the Gulf region. A second area of low pressure may then develop along the wrn edge of the frontal boundary Tue, before lifting NE into the OH Valley/mid Atlantic regions Wed. Showers are expected to increase Tue into Wed invof of the lingering cold front, as an active SW flow regime develops over much of the SE region.
Surface ridging across the area will produce a sunny day with slight above normal temperatures (generally about 5 degrees above normal). The low level jet will increase enough cause some LLWS late in the period. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 37 63 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 36 62 52 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 54 36 59 52 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 29 57 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 20.
312 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Low pressure will lift into the northern Canadian Maritimes through Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will remain over the area on Christmas Day.
Surface ridging across the area will produce a sunny day with slight above normal temperatures (generally about 5 degrees above normal).
This will shift surface winds to the west-northwest and help to mix warmer air just off the surface to ground level. Should see high approach 60 or even the lower 60s across southwest Nebraska with most everyone else in the 50s. The low-levels remain dry and may see more virga than anything. Deep upper level troughing will remain in place across the western CONUS through Christmas weekend.
Leeside troughing will develop off the Rockies over eastern Colorado overnight ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through late Friday evening increasing the gradient through southwest Kansas.
300 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 High pressure centered over the Carolinas stretches southwest across northern Florida. High pressure will settle across Florida over the next several days. As the high nears, breezes will diminish and high temperatures will return to near normal.
Daytime wind speeds will increase Friday as the pressure gradient tightens across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys ahead of an approaching cold front.
Looking ahead to overnight to tomorrow morning, the potential remains for freezing rain shifting over to snow with 850mb temperatures being rather warm. Temperatures have remained nearly stationary in the lower to middle teens this morning. Highs are expected to reach the lower 20s near the International Border to near 30 degrees in the southern Red River Valley. Soundings indicate weak forcing in the low levels with dry air aloft, reducing the chance for measurable precipitation across a large portion of the area. Impacts are expected to be minimal, but could still cause travel difficulties where sleet or freezing drizzle occur, especially given the expectation of increased travel during this time.
Some patchy frost is possible in the cooler, sheltered locations along with some patchy fog across the southeast big bend and portions of south central Georgia late tonight.
The fog may become locally dense, which could also lead to some black ice forming where temperatures are below freezing. Main threat would be north of I-96 where subfreezing temperatures are expected overnight. --Rain Likely South Christmas Morning-- A cold front leans in from the west on Christmas Eve then stalls as a wave moves along the front.
Initial cold front and showers passed through southwest Idaho early this morning on their way to south-central Idaho today. A second stronger cold front, now along the coast, will pass through tonight with rain changing to snow down to valley floors before sunrise Friday.
1037 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Considerably warmer conditions can be expected today into Friday as southerly winds become breezy ahead of the next frontal system.
1149 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Considerably warmer conditions can be expected today into Friday as southerly winds become breezy ahead of the next frontal system.
For Friday, temperatures look to be fairly similar to or slightly warmer than today. 925mb temps look a touch warmer, and mixing should be more proficient.
An additional LLJ is expected overnight and should aid in spreading the low clouds northeast. A deepening lee trough will progress into the area during the afternoon hours.
148 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 High pressure will be in place across the southeastern United States tonight before sliding off the southeastern US coast late Friday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): A stout mid/upper-level subtropical ridge will begin to slide eastward over central Mexico tonight into Christmas Eve (Friday) morning and eventually over eastern Mexico by Friday night. Low temperatures will drop into the low-mid 60s tonight, about 5 degrees warmer than last night. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will be a degree or two warmer than today, generally low-mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
As a low pressure system moves east over southern Canada, the Midwest will be sandwiched between high pressure to our southeast and the aforementioned low.