Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
646 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. H5 SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. H5 TROF AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WITH REGION UNDER A BREEZY NW FLOW AND T85 AROUND -7C. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
231 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND TODAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 50 UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES IN ON SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE SOME NOTICEABLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.
104 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ON TAP LATE THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GETTING KICKED EWD AS PAC NW TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL BRING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INITIALLY. THEN ULIMATELY BRING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
359 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Unseasonably chilly Canadian high pressure is poised to move in during the next 24-48 hours. High pressure will move closer the region by Saturday night.
113 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2015 A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN MANY AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA AS A TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS LOW DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. 50" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies. The ridge will linger over the region on into Saturday which should allow readings to approach or surpass records for the day.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AND ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CROSSES THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE THIS WEEKEND.
FRNT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SHWRS AS A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY DVLPMNT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
428 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. H5 SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. H5 TROF AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WITH REGION UNDER A BREEZY NW FLOW AND T85 AROUND -7C. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
COOLER AND DRY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL RIDGING DRAPED OVER SETX THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH DROPS SOUTH PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM SATURDAY.
304 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE LOW TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
254 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY. THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BUT THINKING THAT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TN COUNTIES AND MAYBE JUST SOME PATCHY FROST IN COOLER VALLEYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE COLD AIR WILL BE WELL IN PLACE AT THIS TIME AND HIGHS WILL BARELY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
1218 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 PRETTY ACTIVE DAY FOR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND DIMINISH BY 00Z AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. I AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE SOUTHWEST HAS YET TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE NISH VALLEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOUCHED FREEZING IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO I AM NOT CONSIDERING HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
A cold front will move south through the region today with gusty north to northeast winds in it's wake.
427 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY. BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
345 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.
THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700 MB RH ID DRY.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S WELL INLAND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ZONES EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
614 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO HANG ON ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO BE LOCATED IN THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF BAJA. COPIOUS CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE RIDGE CREST THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY WINDS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST FROM UT/AZ TO RE-POSITION OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
405 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUT GRAND JUNCTION IN THE LOW 90S ON MON. IN SPITE OF THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. LINGERING MOISTURE AND GOOD DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
COOL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. WEAK ENERGY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING.
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE LOWER- 48 SEPARATED A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND WEAKER RIDGING OFF OF THE SE COAST. A NUMBER OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE ROUNDING THE TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE ARLATEX. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUE. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE IN ND TUE NIGHT WITH THREAT OF PRECIP PRECEDING SYSTEM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U. MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT DRIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING EAST AS WELL LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR OVER N GA. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN THEY DIFFER IN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BOTH MODELS FILL THE LOW HOWEVER THE ECMWF PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS.
A cold front trailing from the Low will work its way southeast across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians during the same time frame. While the atmosphere dries out aloft in the wake of the cold front, the layer in the lowest 3-5 thousand feet will remain nearly saturated, so low-level clouds will prevail today, though a few breaks in the cloudcover are not out of the question. On Monday, deeper moisture returns to the area thanks to the development of an upper level Low to our south, which will push moisture in from the south.
212 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT WILL CRAWL EASTWARD TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT ON GFS/AND OVER TENNESSEE ON EURO. UPPER LOW CENTER WADDLES AROUND MISSISSIPPI. ACTUAL UPPER LOW POSITION MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BLEND OF BOTH GFS AND EURO. UPPER RIDGE KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD THIS WAY BUT EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE KEEPS GETTING CARVED OUT BY REPEATEDLY. FINALLY UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP AND RETREATS WITH UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING EASTERN U. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.
144 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WITH LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT NOW WELL INLAND EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE NEAR THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SO OPTED TO KEEP LAPORTE AND BERRIEN OUT OF WATCH AT THIS TIME. UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE BLOCKING IN NATURE AS SOUTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE MEAN UPPER RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
415 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. TODAY/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. PWB 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TODAY WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE MN AND NRN WI.
/ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER CONUS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US AND TWO RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE, ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A SECOND ONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
329 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
305 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015 A much quieter stretch of weather appears to finally be on tap for the region for the coming week, as ridging both at the surface and aloft look to remain in place over the area for the next few days. This will persist through at least mid morning, with fog and drizzle most prevalent along the spine of the Ozark Plateau, where stratus is more prone to build down toward the higher elevations. The slow clearing trend will continue Monday, though right now things are looking more cloudy than not as an upper low remains parked over southeastern Arkansas.
THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST, POINT TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SETTING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. BUT SOME CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE BY THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BRINGING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. TONIGHT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. AND WE MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YDAY.
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COLD FRONT STALLS IN OUR VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
246 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A SLOW MOVING CDFNT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TN WHILE A 5H TROF STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO AND INTO TX.
449 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS AS AN EFFECT OF THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 719 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH UPPER-TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.
508 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO HANG ON ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO BE LOCATED IN THAT AREA.
407 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST. UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
404 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO HANG ON ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO BE LOCATED IN THAT AREA.
358 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
345 AM CDT Sun May 31 2015 High pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into Kansas this morning at 08Z. Highs today should top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the warmer temps in north central Kansas. Tonight, moisture will increase across western and central Kansas as the low level jet develops. Northwest flow will continue aloft as the upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Dry air in the low levels will need to be overcome and storms may have a hard time progressing as far east as highway 81 as the moisture axis should remain focused mainly over western Kansas. Lows tonight will cool into the lower 50s. Though mid/high cloud from dissipating convection could last well through the morning, expect highs to modify a few more degrees into the lower to middle 70s.
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER.
LOWER STATUS IS DRAPED OVER E OK AND IS SWINGING DOWN TO THE SE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OF 50S INTO 60S. S AR AND MUCH OF LA AS THE COLD FRONT IS HALFWAY INTO OUR CWA. ALSO NOTABLE IS AN NICE BIG RIDGE OVER THE W U. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE DESPITE THE STILL WET SOIL FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
449 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH NOT TOO SHABBY FOR LAST-DAY-OF-MAY STANDARDS SET TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE FIGURING THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW FAR THIS INCOMING TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEFORE STARTING TO CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM LATE MONDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
212 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COLD FRONT STALLS IN OUR VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A VERY STRONG VORT BLOB MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION RAISES CONFIDENCE OF THIS AND AT LEAST INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
138 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP SO WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. APPEARS A FEW STORMS WILL DVLP OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS FOR HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO VALUES 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT WHICH WOULD YIELD LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE 10-15C RANGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A BIT OF A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD SHUNT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.