Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Now that inversions and low cloud cover/fog are firmly in place in portions of north-central Idaho and west- central/northwest Montana the temperature forecast has been refined to show minimal diurnal change in the valleys and a warming tend in the high terrain. The general weather pattern, dominated by high pressure, remains forecast to stay in place for the majority of this week.
Temperatures look on track with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Concur with the deterministic NWP models that the upper synoptic pattern will be characterized by a mean trough over the ERN CONUS and a ridge over the WRN CONUS during the period. Warmer today owing to drier atmosphere/air mass modification. Readings may approach freezing over potions of the CWA early Sunday morning.
1137 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A cold front has swept through the Florida Keys, and currently is moving steadily southeastward across the Straits of Florida. A powerful cold front will sweep southeastward across the Straits of Florida this afternoon.
Still a few snow shower bands showing up on radar, but overall a decrease in shower activity as weak high pressure builds today. High pressure builds again on Sunday for another break between short waves.
However, the valley stratus will keep overnight lows warmer Sunday morning.
An upper ridge remained over the western U. stretching well into western Canada, while an upper trough remained over the Great Lakes and southeast U. Therefore think there should be more insolation today with temps generally trending warmer. Northwest flow continues on Sunday, but increasing heights allow warmer air to move in from the west. As a result the fire danger will be very high across central KS where the RH is forecasted to be the lowest.
1036 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR all areas the next 24 hrs with light winds beneath a strong ridge of high pressure centered over CA. The warming will continue into early week as a large and dominant ridge of high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West.
117 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure, located just east of Cape Hatteras early this morning, will track northward today, paralleling the coastline.
/issued 345 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough that brought wintry wx to Texas exiting the MS Valley, while to the west, a highly-amplified ridge has moved a little further inland over the wrn CONUS.
124 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Ample sunshine was competing with 850mb cold air advection and leading to afternoon temps in the low 40s across the west to the upper 30s in the east, closer to the upper level low. Sunday will be warmer as 850mb temps increase over today's readings. Generally looking at highs in the low to mid 50s.
A 523 dm 500 mb low over southern Lake MI was embedded in a deep upper level trof along the IL/IN border late this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures today as the winds shift around to more northwesterly behind a prefrontal trough. Much cooler temperatures expected overnight tonight as dense Arctic air drops into the Midwest. Winds coming around to more southerly in a weak ridging on Sunday. enough to keep the high temps up into the mid to upper 30s, and Sun night warmer as well.
Area lows mostly in the 15 to 20 degree range with favored low lying areas north possibly into the lower teens. However, it appears that much of the area will be on the relatively warmer side of the storm.
115 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A frontal boundary and associated weak low pressure will move away from the South Carolina coast this afternoon.
Forecast confidence is medium to high: A weak trough of low pressure will move through late tonight into Sunday morning. There isn't much lift with this system and there will be a fair amount of dry air in the lower levels.
Clear skies that prevailed across the region earlier this morning were being replaced by an area of clouds - preceding another approaching cold front. Before the clouds become more prevalent this afternoon, highs should warm more than yesterday, rising to the lower 40s (which will help melt snows that occurred yesterday). Cold front will quickly exit the region by late evening, bringing in a surge of cold, arctic air. Lows across Southern Middle Tennessee and Northeast Alabama may dip into the upper Teens, while other areas will fall into the lower 20s.
101 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. Light snow will spread east this afternoon, along with a cold front which will push in from the west. Once the cold front goes by, precipitation will change over to snow showers as low level instability increases along with dynamic lift from upper level energy (in the form of a PV anomaly/perturbation). Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 30s. Winds will increase from the west and will become gusty behind the cold front. Winds will remain gusty this evening in the wake of the cold front.
Mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures, not a bad start to the weekend at all. Like this morning, there may be some patchy frost here or there in the cooler, more sheltered locations.
Strong upper level ridge will keep the region dry and warm through the weekend. However, some high clouds have moved over the top of the ridge axis so have updated sky condition to increase coverage for this morning. An upper level ridge over the Western US will provide generally quiet conditions across the forecast area.
322 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 At mid afternoon an upper trough axis extended from the Great Lakes to just east of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A dry cold front was approaching the Forecast area from the north.
315 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers.
129 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2017 High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions along with valley inversions, cold nights, and light winds for the next several days. Valley inversions persist under a coastal-Pacific high pressure.
309 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Currently, a highly amplified Pacific western ridge / eastern trough pattern remain in firm place over the CONUS. At the surface a weak backdoor cold front has meandered into the area as evidenced by drier dewpoints from northeast to southwest.
Cooler air will feed in behind the system resulting in highs a couple of degrees lower in parts of southwestern MN and northwestern IA for this afternoon, with readings topping out in the mid 20s, while back to the west highs will approach 40 over south central SD. Tonight will continue to be fairly quiet, but low pressure over south central Canada will track into the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight, turning our winds to westerly as a warm front pulls through the area.
203 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Digging upper trough/cold front pushes through tonight.
while increasing SW winds have kept portions of WRN and NRN AR warmer with temps remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs will be warmer this afternoon compared to Fri. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than seen early this morning. This will allow for a bit warmer conditions on Sun.
1155 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Fairly quiet and dry weather is expected the next several days as high pressure remains parked across the western United States. Across the Southwest, an upper level low is beginning to undercut the West Coast ridge. Ensemble means are suggesting a short wave trough will flow down the front/east side of the ridge in the Thu-Sat time frame.
Snow continues to fall this morning just ahead of an upper-level trough that has pivoted from a very positive to a nearly neutral tilt.
328 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Persistent ridging across the western CONUS will continue through Sunday, with dry northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge across the central and northern plains. Winds will actually increase a little tonight as a Pacific cold front crosses the area. Where winds decouple in lower spots like river valleys, it will be a bit colder in the lower 20s. Full sunshine Sunday, plus a surge of warmer air aloft, with 850mb temperatures rising to between 8C and 10C, will boost highs into the lower 60s across portions of the area.
248 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A frontal boundary and associated weak low pressure will move away from the South Carolina coast this afternoon.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday's highs, especially in parts of eastern Oklahoma. A limited fire spread threat will exist this afternoon, but somewhat fortunately, the highest wind speeds this afternoon are expected to coincide in area with the highest minimum relative humidities, which should keep things under control. Also behind the trof axis. afternoon temperatures in the lower 40s are forecast for these locations.
A dome of dry and cold high pressure continues to build into the region tonight and will bring the coldest temperatures to the area so far this season.
1013 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong north-northwest flow continues over the northern plains between a ridge to the west and a trough to the east. Even warmer air moves into the region for Sunday, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Temps range from the upper teens in the colder spots to upper 20s across parts of the Delta where southwest winds are developing in response to the next approaching cold front.
118 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure, located just east of Cape Hatteras early this morning, will track northward today, paralleling the coastline.
308 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 A 524 dm 500 mb low over northeast IN was within a strong upper level trof over the central Ohio river valley. As upper level low/trof pulls further away from IL by early evening, expect clouds and brisk NW winds of 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph to diminish. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 20s as winds diminish light and clouds increase from the NNW overnight Sunday night.
A stationary front between US Highway 83 and ND Highway 3 across central North Dakota will propagate east as a warm front today. However, the thinking is with gradient west- northwest winds of 10-20kts and a very shallow and depleting snowpack, that mixing will be greater allowing warmer temperatures to be achieved. Widespread 40s are forecast west of ND Highway 3, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s east where mixing will be less.
A deep trough to our west will be crossing the area this evening. Radar shows light precip ahead of the trough is beginning to move into the TN Valley, but some dry low level air seems to be evaporating most of it before it reaches the ground. Moisture depth will increase as the midlevel thermal trough moves over the area, producing steep lapse rates that will generate scattered snow showers and flurries. 1-2 inches will be possible through midnight above that level, with a half inch or less in the lower elevations of SW VA and NE TN and northern Plateau. Decreasing moisture depth and midlevel warming will occur in the 03-06Z time frame as the trough pushes east.
1157 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 No major changes needed for the 18Z TAFS as high pressure prevails over the region.
232 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting the low 60s. Warmer air moving in will bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow under mostly sunny skies.
1215 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A frontal boundary and associated weak low pressure will move northeast away from the South Carolina coast this afternoon. An upper level low pressure system will move through the area this afternoon. Model soundings suggest some cooling in the low to mid levels and increasing lift as weak low pressure moves away from the South Carolina coast and the mid level short wave crosses the region. Precipitation still expected to diminish during the afternoon as the upper trough crosses the region. Highs temperatures will struggle to rise and will be well below normal in the low to mid 40s. A strong short wave trough will move through the area tonight. Broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
Behind the trough, moderate LES in NNW wind snowbelts will result. The continued northwest flow will persist through much of the extended periods, as the 500mb trough carved over the Great Lakes region will slowly begin to weaken. Upstream amplified ridging will begin to weaken; however, the ridging remains and will continue to send weak lobes of vorticity southeast towards the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Weak surface ridging is progged to push into the upper midwest Tue; however, it does not arrive over the Upper Peninsula. Temps Mon/Tue will be well below normal, with highs likely struggling to warm beyond the low/mid-teens. Northeasterly winds will gust to 20 to 30 knots tonight and into early Sunday with light freezing spray possible, especially across the eastern half of Lake Superior.
348 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers.
A very dry and subsident air mass on the back side of an upper level trough will affect the forecast area through the period. Temperatures have warmed above freezing on their way to the mid 50's by this afternoon beneath clear skies. The east coast trough remains in place this morning with high pressure at the surface stretching from the Rockies to the gulf. Canadian high pressure will remain in place and the northwest flow aloft will keep the dry airmass over the region, so after the past few dreary days expect to see plenty of sun.
Weak return flow within residual low level theta-e ridge through ern IN/wrn OH aggravating cu field across far se and still expect isolated convective development this aftn. This will yield warmer temps tomorrow aftn as low level thermal trough continues to modify in place. Decidedly warmer this period as substantial upper ridge builds across the plains. Ewd shift/expansion of upper ridge should keep active frontal zone in proximity to local CWA of which favors a protracted period of pops.
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible today as a weak cold front pushes through the region.
335 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper ridge will strengthen over the area this week bringing hot and humid weather, with little to no chance of rain. The ridge will begin to shift east and weaken this weekend, which may allow a weak front to move into the area by the end of the forecast period.
An upper trof axis was located across south Alabama. A little more convective development has occurred on the back side of the trof than expected. More thunderstorm activity was concentrated south of I-85, just south of the upper trof axis. On Tuesday, the upper low and trough begin to shift eastward as upper-level ridging builds in across the Great Plains. A high pressure system remains in place through the upcoming week and only slides eastward slightly by the upcoming weekend.
316 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 High pressure will build east through the central and southern Great Lakes through Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): Shower activity continues to bubble up around the region due to midlevel inverted trough bringing instability and deeper moisture.
404 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a broad 1017mb high over Georgia and Florida with ridge axis west across north central Gulf. Upper level analysis continue to show a positively tilted trough from New York to east Tennessee to Southeast Louisiana and high over the Central Plains. 18 Upper level trough axis along the east coast to Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly push east to the east coast. The trough axis will maintain precipitable water in the 1. 25 inch (south) for Tuesday and moderate instability will result in convective temperature in the low 80s Tuesday morning and mid 80s Tuesday afternoon.
246 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 One more afternoon/evening of isolated convection looks possible today before an upper level ridge shuts down the convection chances. An upper ridge will intensify over the Central and South Plains through late week aiding in keeping convection chances minimal. This upper ridge will shift into the Mississippi River valley by late week beginning to place West Texas in a height weakness aloft.
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will finally pick up speed this morning and head southward as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. With a split flow within the trough, the northern wave moving quickly toward Southern Canada and the southern diving through Kentucky, there will be only meager large scale ascent available over the region as the upper level system passes through. It looks like the best location to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the higher elevations and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but another front will move down from the north and stall over the region for the latter half of the week. An upper level trough should be moving east of the area very early in the long range period. The upper flow is characterized by a persistent WNW flow due to weak troughing over ern Canada and a flat, broad ridge over the Srn/SErn states through almost the entire period.
Isolated convection will occur on the higher terrain this afternoon and will fade away with the loss of heating this evening.
412 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Cold front laying along a line from Rapid City to Wright to Cody this afternoon. Southeast surface winds out across western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas this afternoon with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s.
437 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 High pressure aloft brings increasingly hot and humid pattern with scattered mountain showers/storms through mid week.
233 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today.
High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but another front will move down from the north and stall over the region for the latter half of the week.
Temperatures are generally running a few degrees cooler than at this time yesterday.
This cold front will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Some of the high resolution models suggest this activity could strengthen overnight and sustain itself as it moves across the southern part of the state through the early morning hours. Tuesday may see some lingering showers and storms early, with relatively cooler temperatures during the afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the low 80s, which should be a nice relief from the recent hot weather.
As a result, the potential for vigorous convection may be reduced and delayed across the lower deserts around the Phoenix area until later this afternoon or evening. Deep and moderately strong easterly flow was also observed through 6 km AGL, which will support perhaps some lapse rate recovery off the higher terrain, and a westward storm movement later this evening. Meanwhile, hi-resolution models are bullish on convection developing across the higher terrain later this afternoon, but appear to be too aggressive developing storms over southeast Arizona and moving them northwestward. Afternoon tstms are once again forecast to develop over the higher terrain north through east of Phoenix this afternoon, then move toward the Phoenix area by evening.
KOMA and KMLE have been running a bit warmer than some of the other nearby sites but they seem correct. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level ridge dominating the central US, with troughing over the eastern Great Lakes/mid-Atlantic and also in western Canada. Airmass will remain capped through most of the day, with convection likely limited to area very near the trough, and thus have slowed its timing into the CWA until after 00Z.
The H3 jet remains quasi zonal along or just south of the Canadian border through the week while the H5 ridge builds slowly over the Plains.
1143 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Updated aviation section The upper ridge continues to be quashed by the stronger westerlies intruding form the north. forced southward by strong troughing across the high latitudes of NOAM. Utah which will weaken as it plows into the ridge center over our CWA.
1259 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Breezy south-southwesterly flow is expected across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front that will stall across central portions of the state. Can't rule out that a storm would be able to produce hail, but with freezing levels near 15K feet, it may be difficult for any hail to reach the surface. An unsettled pattern returns to the area Tuesday through the middle portion of the week, as upper ridge flattens and strong westerlies set up across North Dakota/northern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on precipitation/cloud coverage, but will generally lean toward cooler highs in the lower 80s across southwest Minnesota, to lower-mid 90s through the Missouri River Valley.
High pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes region tonight with low pressure strengthening over the northern Plains states.
342 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the area into this evening, then dryer weather will return late tonight with areas of low clouds and fog developing overnight.
143 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper level low pressure area that has been over the area the past few days is forecast to lift northeast toward McCook by 18z then across the far northeast and east by days end and finally out of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. Plenty of moisture exists in the vicinity of the low which will help promote shower and thunderstorm activity, some of which will produce locally heavy rainfall. For Tuesday and Tuesday night weather disturbances will graze the far northern zones around periphery of upper ridge continuing a low chance for thunderstorms.
1147 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Afternoon convection is once again firing up over the higher terrain of western and central NM before generally moving S/SW into valley locations later this afternoon and evening.
335 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Weak high pressure at the surface and several upper level impulses on the periphery of the forecast area will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across southern and eastern portions of forecast area. The models all show some drying as the upper ridge builds eastward tomorrow, and PWATs drop under 1. High pressure builds over the forecast area through the end of the week and low chance or slight chance pops look okay. Upper level low developing over the northeast Gulf may affect pops for the weekend but for now will leave pops alone.
Upper high will build in over the taf period leading to favorable flight conditions.
It is more uncertain if storms will survive in tact into the lower deserts later this evening, as the morning sounding from Phoenix reflected a less unstable air mass. Otherwise, the large-scale pattern will remain fairly stagnant, with the midlevel anticyclone centered near the Southern Plains, and a weak upper low over northwest Mexico. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Current thinking is that, with the lower atmosphere being worked over from yesterday's convective activity, is that storm development will be delayed somewhat today. Some of the high-res computer models even dissipate these storms just as they move into the valley, as they encounter a more stable airmass over the lower deserts. At this point, just going with VCTS and a wind shift to northeasterly in the tafs in the 05- 06Z timeframe, given the low-confidence forecast.
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Weak upper level trof over western KS will pull away from two high pressure systems this evening. Strong high pressure will build over the southern plains through the rest of the week.
534 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with temperatures still expected to top out in the low to mid 90s.