Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Due to this strong northerly flow across Eastern Ohio and southerly flow across Central WV, a secondary low may form in the ridges and keep isolated showers and storms lingering into late Monday morning. Fog is forecasted to develop early Monday morning for areas south of I-70 and into the ridges, where weak surface winds and high relative humidity is promising. Building high pressure over the Great Lakes Monday afternoon is expected to cease any lingering rain showers across our region.
Another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are expected in southwest Idaho on Monday - once again mainly in the Western Magic Valley and in the higher elevations - as a slow-moving upper trough moves through the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Monday, mainly over the higher terrain of central and southwest Idaho and east of KMUO.
Temperatures have dropped down into the low to mid 70s across a large part of the forecast area thanks to the widespread showers/storms earlier this afternoon/evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 72 93 / 60 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 90 69 90 / 20 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 90 69 90 / 20 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 67 85 / 20 40 10 20.
Otherwise, a cooler night is in store with lows ranging from 62 in Galesburg to 69 in Lawrenceville, and light northeast winds. An easterly low level flow on Monday will result in drier air with dew points in the lower to middle 60s across the forecast area. Once again, would expect shallow, diurnal clouds to develop as forecast soundings point to convective temps in the lower-mid 80s.
Elsewhere most other land observing sites are still in the low 80s. In particular the western extent of the ridge axis is manifesting in south to southwest winds across the eastern Straits and in the vicinity of the Middle Keys, with HRRR guidance suggesting increased convergence along this zone overnight as it gradually overtakes the Middle and Upper Keys. From the synopsis: A western Atlantic ridge axis will settle south into the Straits of Florida and the north coast of Cuba tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Have added a TEMPO group for MVFR conds in TSRA at all terminals generally between 18-21Z given the high rain chances.
445 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern today and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to the past few days, with thunderstorm probs/coverage primarily modulated by mesoscale features associated with /emerging from/ upstream convection and/or small amplitude waves in SW flow aloft -- on the N/NW periphery of the ridge situated over the Southern Plains.
Upper level trough axis is moving across the region with a quick downturn in convection from Tucson west. Flow aloft becomes southeasterly by mid to late week with the upper high becoming established over northern New Mexico.
Main upper trough remains off to the west over the Tennessee valley region, and it will slowly drift southward tonight. Lows expect to once again fall into the low to mid 70s. A frontal boundary over the Carolinas and a weak upper low in the Southeast U.
Generally, winds will veer to SW-W over the next 24 hours as leeside troughing commences on the Front Range. Primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis was across the wrn areas and will move e during the diurnal heating cycle. Chance PoPs still look ok, HRRR and to a lesser degree RAP13 and 00Z ECMWF have shown storms developing across the ern 1/3 of CWFA before 21Z, presumably in warmer and more moist environment, and recent radar/satellite trends confirm models. Similar to last night we see the possibility for SHRA/TSRA to continue through the night as the mid-level theta-e ridge tracks e across the CWFA though the night. Models are still in good agreement that the subtropical ridge will build nw and expand Thur-Sunday.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
949 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An upper trof continues to slowly move through the region. Showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening in association with the trof are beginning to diminish. Will keep 20 POPS in overnight for locations near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi due to the proximity of the trof. /issued 328 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ An upper trof which produced showers and thunderstorms earlier today has now moved east of the region. As the upper trof continues to march SE away from the region, upper high pressure will build into the region on Monday.
647 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Due to this strong northerly flow across Eastern Ohio and southerly flow across Central WV, a secondary low may form in the ridges and keep isolated showers and storms lingering into late Monday morning. Fog is forecasted to develop early Monday morning for areas south of I-70 and into the ridges, where weak surface winds and high relative humidity is promising. Building high pressure over the Great Lakes Monday afternoon is expected to cease any lingering rain showers across our region.
556 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An upper level trough will move east across the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin tonight and Monday. 75 inches will keep showers and thunderstorms initiating off the higher terrain and moving north-northeast over the downwind valleys.
With the large amount of convection across the region and upper level trough will maintain convective debris in the mid and upper levels tonight. Some light fog is possible from Trail Ridge westward toward sunrise but should be very brief where ever it forms.
/issued 328 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ An upper trof which produced showers and thunderstorms earlier today has now moved east of the region. As the upper trof continues to march SE away from the region, upper high pressure will build into the region on Monday.
Current temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, which had near normal highs.
934 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Lingering showers will continue in our ridges, however heavy rainfall that would prompt flash flooding is not anticipated. Due to this strong northerly flow across Eastern Ohio and southerly flow across Central WV, a secondary low may form in the ridges and keep isolated showers and storms lingering into late Monday morning. Fog is forecasted to develop early Monday morning for areas south of I-70 and into the ridges, where weak surface winds and high relative humidity is promising. Building high pressure over the Great Lakes Monday afternoon is expected to cease any lingering rain showers across our region.
An upper level low over southern British Columbia will slide southeast through Monday morning with scattered showers around.
As we approach the top of the hour, heat indices are still in the low to mid 90's areawide.
345 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Upper level high currently over the CWA will begin to move south today in response to an upper trough moving through the Great Basin region.
440 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Current surface analysis as of 08Z across the region features a weak cold front currently stalled from Huntington, WV southwest to Bowling Green, KY. However, much of this development is elevated a bit with some of the fog on the ridges and low cigs. Heading into tonight, the mentioned less cloud cover will factor in with some with drying mid levels and subsidence setting up with large scale ridging setting up.
Short wave ridging will slide over Norcal on Mon/Mon evening with the flow aloft transitioning to SWly as the ridge shifts inland ahead of the Pacific trof. Current temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, which had near normal highs.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected tonight although a weak upper level trough/circulation will linger across portions of SW AR/N LA before weakening during the day Monday. Although the 00Z NAM depicts dry conditions overnight, the latest runs of the HRRR as well as the earlier runs of the HREF still suggest that isolated convection may redevelop late tonight near this feature along an area of H850-700 theta-e ridging near the residual cold pool which is still pronounced in the sfc theta-e analysis extending from the Red River Valley of extreme NE TX/SE OK SE into extreme Srn AR/N LA.
An upper level trough will move east across the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin tonight and Monday. 75 inches will keep showers and thunderstorms initiating off the higher terrain and moving north-northeast over the downwind valleys.
The upper high over South Texas will remain in place today, but is not that strong at this time.
314 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east of the region today, as a trough over the Pacific Northwest advances over the northern Rockies. A few isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through mid morning in south central SD on the nose of the low level jet. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday, with highs in the 80s, but with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s to lower 70s, it will feel muggier.
Temperatures will remain seasonally hot with highs in the lower 90s.
235 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 The upper level ridge over the Midwest this morning will shift slowly east to be over the Great Lakes by late tonight. This will allow a southwest flow pattern to begin setting up and start sending short wave troughs toward the region. At the surface, the area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to remain nearly stationary through tonight. This combined with the short wave trough staying to the west, will keep the area dry.
1045 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern today and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to the past few days, with thunderstorm probs/coverage primarily modulated by mesoscale features associated with /emerging from/ upstream convection and/or small amplitude waves in SW flow aloft -- on the N/NW periphery of the ridge situated over the Southern Plains.
Weak surface and upper level troughing will be over the area today with a weak frontal boundary dropping southward into the forecast area late this evening into early tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the mid 70s. A frontal boundary over the Carolinas and a weak upper low in the Southeast U.
356 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early Monday morning.
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a broad 500 mb ridge across the plains into the sern U. with troughing in the lower Great Lakes and into New England. The trough on the west coast heads into the Rockies Mon night with the ridge becoming more amplified over the upper Great Lakes. Models suggest that a progressive pattern will become zonal late this week before transitioning to wnw flow as a ridge builds over the sw CONUS.
The first area to monitor thunderstorms will be associated with a warm front lifting into central Kansas by late this morning through the noon hour. Most areas behind the warm front should see a mix of clouds and sun.
Sitting along the north side of the low sits a very weak cold front that is running through southern Kentucky.
233 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Disturbed SW flow pushing into the region ahead of the advancing upper trough. SFC reflected trough beginning to settle into SE MT and will slowly progress into the FA this morning. As the upper trough pushes east into the region, capping will weaken and allow a few showers and storms to develop over the central and northern Black Hills. However, deep bulk shear will be lacking until the upper trough pushes closer to the region Monday night.
410 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 The weak upper low over GA should drift to the south today.
Otherwise, after the fairly active last few days, a much quieter and drier weather regime will take hold this week as an upper ridge over the southern Plains expands eastward into the Tennessee Valley.
116 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 A lingering shower will be possible as a cold front crosses the region tonight. Somewhat cooler and notably drier air will work in from the north as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes on Monday.
258 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Drier air will move into the UT and western CO from the west behind a broad trough that will continue traveling through the area this morning. After cloud cover from the passing trough moves through eastern UT, drier air and stronger southwest winds aloft and at the surface will spread across the area from west to east.
For the rest of today, expect a much quieter day and will leave a dry forecast as an upper ridge axis shifts from the Ozarks into the lower TN valley.
248 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019 With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern today and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to the past few days, with thunderstorm probs/coverage primarily modulated by mesoscale features associated with /emerging from/ upstream convection and/or small amplitude waves in SW flow aloft -- on the N/NW periphery of the ridge situated over the Southern Plains. A ridge sits over the central U.
/issued 949 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ An upper trof continues to slowly move through the region. Showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening in association with the trof are beginning to diminish. Will keep 20 POPS in overnight for locations near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi due to the proximity of the trof. /issued 328 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ An upper trof which produced showers and thunderstorms earlier today has now moved east of the region. As the upper trof continues to march SE away from the region, upper high pressure will build into the region on Monday.
329 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Large scale pattern has amplified over the last 24hrs going from near zonal over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest to a ridge extending into Canada. Upstream closed circulation was centered along the BC/WA border with a deep trough extending down the western U. Meanwhile, the Central Plains was under the influence of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes.
ENE winds to bring in a bit less humid air today, with this flow around weak high pressure over the great lakes. Fair weather expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s, coolest over ne CWA. Upper level ridge building into IL tonight and Tue with weak high pressure ridge shifts further east and se flow bringing warmer and more humid air back into the area with mostly sunny skies. A mid/upper level trof/low over the Pacific states will move east into the Midwest/upper MS river valley on Wed. This will bring a cold front se into nw IL late Wed afternoon and thru rest of CWA during Wed evening.
The western extent of the front over the Plains, where it is slowly buckling northward as a warm front, had areas of showers and thunderstorms in its vicinity. The surface front to our south is expected to slowly begin edging northward as a warm front today and ultimately could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms edging into far southern portions of the forecast area in southeast MO.
A low pressure center moves through the Intermountain west and Rockies of the northwestern U. A short wave trough lifting out ahead of this main upper system will move out of the Rockies and across the central and northern high plains regions this evening. A deepening lee trough associated with the upper trough moves off the front range late this afternoon and moves across the forecast area late this evening and during the early overnight hours. Southeast surface flow ahead of the trough keeps moist air in place across much of the forecast area with dewpoints between 65-70 degrees east of the Colorado border area.
Southeast surface winds ahead of the cold front will bring in as high as 75 degree dew point air into the James River Valley this afternoon. MUCAPE of 2-3K J/KG and steep low level lapse rates will support severe weather associated with the cold front and rigorous short waves at H5 in the long wave trof moving through Montana.
/issued 428 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ Current WV loop shows a 500 hpa high situated over south TX while a 500 hpa low is moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest with an upper trough axis positioned over the western U. This is where the highest PoPs reside. A few showers and storms may linger past 00Z tonight, otherwise a quiet night is in store with low temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA a bit warmer as moisture retreats westward.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep dry weather over central Indiana through Tuesday night.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Large scale pattern has amplified over the last 24hrs going from near zonal over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest to a ridge extending into Canada. Upstream closed circulation was centered along the BC/WA border with a deep trough extending down the western U. Meanwhile, the Central Plains was under the influence of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes.
A low pressure system currently positioned over central Washington State, is still on track to pass over the Northern Rockies today and this evening. Compared to the past couple days, little has changed in the track and timing of the low as it passes overhead today. These areas will also have the highest probability of experiencing brief heavy rain and small hail with the stronger thunderstorms. These locations will be on the eastern and southern periphery of the low center, where the higher precipitable waters and highest instability will be located. Considerable drying will occur on Tuesday as a brief ridge of high pressure brings subsiding air to the region.
638 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early Monday morning.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days.
/Today through Tuesday Night/ Intense tstm activity quickly developed around periphery of upper ridge around midday and spread se into portions of nrn LA. However, upper ridge is beginning to expand nwd, so do not anticipate as much penetration of stg convection into heart of cwa today. However, this subject may need to be revisited for possibly Tuesday and beyond as additional sunshine with expanding upper ridge along with still elevated dewpoints well into the 70s, may begin pushing heat indices upward of 105 degrees for much of this week.
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Current WV loop shows a 500 hpa high situated over south TX while a 500 hpa low is moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest with an upper trough axis positioned over the western U. This is where the highest PoPs reside. A few showers and storms may linger past 00Z tonight, otherwise a quiet night is in store with low temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA a bit warmer as moisture retreats westward.
Dry and warmer weather is expected for all of northern Arizona through Tuesday.
High pressure remains over the western Atlc, but weakness in the ridging allowing for primarily S/SW flow over the area.
But there is also a signal of showers and storm developing on a wind shift/lee trough (perhaps somewhat of a dryline) and moving into western sections late this afternoon or this evening.
/issued 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ Upper level high currently over the CWA will begin to move south today in response to an upper trough moving through the Great Basin region.
This is in response to a subtle short wave trough on the upslope side of the ridge axis.
Temperatures will remain seasonally hot with highs in the lower 90s. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Tuesday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be a little warmer Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
545 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 The upper level ridge over the Midwest this morning will shift slowly east to be over the Great Lakes by late tonight. This will allow a southwest flow pattern to begin setting up and start sending short wave troughs toward the region. At the surface, the area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to remain nearly stationary through tonight. This combined with the short wave trough staying to the west, will keep the area dry.
1011 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Aviation section updated High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep dry weather over central Indiana through Tuesday night.
A weak cold front will cross northern Utah today. High pressure will build into the region through the remainder of the week.
A cold front remains on track to pass through Southeast Idaho today, allowing for a cooler, cloudy day. Tuesday will be a transition day between low pressure exiting to the northeast and high pressure building in from the south. Gradual increases to temperatures are forecast Tuesday with much warmer temperatures expected in the middle portion of the week. It will be much cooler today with minimum humidities expected to remain well above 20 percent in all zones.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 91 71 / 20 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 91 71 / 20 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 88 67 / 20 10 20 10.
This alignment and the light speeds are favorable for cloud line development, especially over the Lower Keys. A broad trough will extend from Georgia down the west coast of Florida today.
730 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 The weak upper low over GA should drift to the south today. The upper ridge builds to the east over our area through Tuesday. The surface boundary and upper low may provide some focus.
604 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east of the region today, as a trough over the Pacific Northwest advances over the northern Rockies. A few isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through mid morning in south central SD on the nose of the low level jet. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday, with highs in the 80s, but with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s to lower 70s, it will feel muggier.
A continuation of the hot and humid airmass, along with a weakness in the ridge will again result in more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, possibly a little more widespread than the previous days.
Sitting along the north side of the low sits a very weak cold front that is running through southern Kentucky. Updated at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Tuesday still looks like dry and typically warm summer day, as high pressure aloft is centered over the Tennessee Valley.
1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 The upper level ridge over the Midwest this morning will shift slowly east to be over the Great Lakes by late tonight. This will allow a southwest flow pattern to begin setting up and start sending short wave troughs toward the region. At the surface, the area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to remain nearly stationary through tonight. This combined with the short wave trough staying to the west, will keep the area dry.
We should see showers and thunderstorms develop across the Midsouth over the next couple of hours as temperatures rise into the lower 90s. Temperatures will remain seasonally hot with highs in the lower 90s. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Tuesday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be a little warmer Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Diurnal High Plains convection initiating near the lee trough and aided by subtle perburbation aloft may move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas by evening and could persist further east later in the night.