Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG. /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/ THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A COLD FRONT REACHING AROUND I-55 BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT WEAKER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST VIA RIDGE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RA/TSRA CHANCES CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WERE RAIN REMAINS ONGOING AND HAS STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 SCATTERED STORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SW MINNESOTA. TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE MID TO LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STABLE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
However, given the cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough moving overhead, could see a few storms produce small hail.
340 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 66 86 66 / 50 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 65 86 65 / 40 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 65 85 65 / 40 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 83 62 / 40 20 20 20.
However, cold front approaching northwest Missouri should spark scattered showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening.
235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY.
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING DISPLACED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
Trend has been to hold back western troughing a bit with upper level ridging remaining over the central CONUS. The storm system in place over the Ozarks will move slowly if at all east into tonight as at combination of ample moisture, instability and an area of low pressure combines to bring additional rounds of rainfall to the region.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BACK INTO COLORADO. TROUGH AT 700 MB WAS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAN AND WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN COAST BY SUN. REINFORCING TROUGH OVER SASK/MAN SAT WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SUN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BROAD TROUGH IS LITTERED WITH SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND BOUNDARIES. AND SEEMINGLY ENTRANCED ON QUICKLY SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. SO AS FORCING FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK TO FAVOR AREAS NEARER THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. END RESULT WILL BE MUCH SMALLER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
517 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY.
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CENTRAL MONTANA AS THEY WERE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO TO LOWER THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approaching the area from the northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to our northern CWA.
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
247 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible A cold front is currently located across the Texas Panhandle and is forecast to slowly make progress south this afternoon and tonight.
THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING AROUND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHICH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER 50S.
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE PWATS OF OVER AN INCH IN THE STRONG FGEN AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MEAN THAT MORE RAIN AND STORMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
TWO UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS AND A POTENT COLD FRONT. RECENT SHORT TERM AND HI-RES MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS THE COMPLEX INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. BUT AS COOLER DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
644 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TOWARDS THE STATE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
619 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND IT.
GIVEN THE LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS SHIFT EAST. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING KS WILL MOVE INTO NE OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS BIT HIGHER GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS MAIN TROF AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED TO OUR EAST.
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 AVIATION A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH STEADY NLY WINDS. BUT OUR CONCERN LIES IN A SEVERE MCS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BASE OF A POTENT TROUGH GLIDES THROUGH IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW. PERSISTENT THETA-E RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA FITS THE BILL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING PARTICULARLY AS A COLD FRONT /NOW IN EASTERN CO AS NOTED BY STEADY PRESSURE RISES/ DROPS SOUTH AND PROVIDES SHARP LINEAR FORCING TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN TODAY.
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
RATHER STOUT COLD FRONT DIVING TOWARD I-70 IN COLORADO AT 3PM IS DUE TO ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER MOST MODELS FAVOR ENOUGH POST-FRONTAL SATURATION ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT/INVERSION LAYER WHICH SHOULD GARNER ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES PARTICULARLY AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH GLIDES SE FROM COLORADO. PRECIP SHOULD BE FADING STEADILY FROM N-S BY SUNRISE AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES GRASP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
349 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT STEADILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CLEARING WILL BEGIN FROM THE NORTH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION.
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME VERY COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM CANADA WITH 8 TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING. CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS.
1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/ THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LATEST 4KM NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE OVER MOST MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY ONE MORE DAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE 70S FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEYS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST. MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
134 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
We may see some showers develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of I-65. The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough swings overhead. This low could provide some more organization to storms during the night, and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of instability available for the night.
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE REGION.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, COULD AGAIN SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH A TROF OVER C TX. SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.
EASTERN AREAS HAVE HAD LESS COVERAGE DUE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A BOARD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 CLOSER TO INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERLYING THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT.
THE WESTERN WAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY/THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTH THRU OUR REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 20Z AND CLEAR OUR CWA BY 03Z. WITH READINGS THEN STEADYING OR EVENING FALLING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. ALOFT: THE TROF WILL DEPART THE REGION SAT LEAVING WNW FLOW THRU SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BE EVOLVING AND PROGRESSING THRU THE WRN USA. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU HERE MON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. SUNNY AND COOL UNDER THE THERMAL TROF. SUN: THERMAL TROF SHIFTS E AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO THE NW.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z ALONG WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER WAVE HAS PROGRESSED OVER THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NW IOWA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH OUR CWA AS IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN KS. DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG/JUST BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN OUR CWA. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER BY SUNSET DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
AS NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THURSDAYS TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE DIVIDE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE.
319 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
654 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY.
EXCEPT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DIMINUATION OF GULF MOISTURE INFLUX. WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES/GLANCING GULF FLOW MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE.
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY.
THIS LOW IS STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT THIS TIME. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. WE CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE PEAKING NOW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
422 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AND BREEZY AFTERNOON.
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SITUATES OVER THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. CHILLY EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S WILL WARM UP TO COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NE FL AND SE GA WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S AND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THIS IS ENABLING SFC TROFFING TO GRADUALLY ASSERT ITSELF FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE TX PANHANDLE/NE NM. TODAY: WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED SFC TROF MOVING SLOWLY SE TOWARD CENTRAL KS SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW & INCREASE. ALL OF CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ~80F WHERE NO DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS TO THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER. MON & MON NIGHT: IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN UPPER-DECK RIDGE. COLD FRONT SE THAT MAY EXTEND FROM THE NEBRASKA/IA BORDER.
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
106 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A MORE NW DIRECTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.
615 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AROUND 22Z TODAY TO 00Z MONDAY. WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DUE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN.
THANKS TO RIDGING OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS A TROUGH AXIS /ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ND/ HAS SET UP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THE MAIN IMPACT FELT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THOUGH EVEN THE PRECEDING TROUGH AXIS WILL AFFECT THINGS TODAY. AND WITH MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS. AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL/GUIDANCE OUTPUT. WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BEST WIND SPEED POTENTIAL NOT TOTALLY MESHING WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES.
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AROUND SUNRISE WHERE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BOOST IN WINDS AS THE INVERSION DROPS TO JUST ABOVE RIDGETOP AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY. ACCELERATING THE ALREADY STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BUMP UP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON AVERAGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND BRING A RETURN TO COLD ADVECTION. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES AT MOST WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
Warm/dry NW flow aloft today/Mon will tend to preclude the development of a lee trof and thus wind. Tue mid level flow will increase and back to the w allowing for surface pressure falls to organize into a lee trof and for the 85h thermal ridge to be farther e with breezy/windy conditions. Meanwhile a mid level trof across the nrn High/Central Plains states will drive a cold front s thru the area Wed AM with highs falling back into the 70s Wed. Warmer but still dry Thur with upper ridging on the increase, but a glancing cold front will be possible. Deepening se low level flow Fri along with falling heights ahead of a shrtwv trof ejecting out in advance of a deeper low along the Calif coast will keep temperatures close to seasonal.
Temps behind the front on Monday will be much cooler as compared to today, topping out closer toward normal for early April.
Temperatures have already fallen into below freezing at several observation sites in Illinois this morning. Temperatures though ought to climb quickly above freezing this morning as winds have already begun to pick up out of the south across central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
WITH HIGHS OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND HIGHS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BREAKING INTO THE 50S.
AND KRSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. WILL MONITOR WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THERE IN THE MORNING.