Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1130 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Mainly clear skies tonight as a weak upper ridge over the Northern and Central Plains. An upper trough will advance toward the high plains Friday afternoon with height falls and steepening lapse rates.
Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side, in the lower 70s.
With a light, albeit steady east to southeast wind, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. With the western Atlantic ridge lying across the Florida peninsula broadening and sagging southward, gentle to occasional moderate east to southeast winds with the highest winds on the Straits of Florida can be expected overnight.
A weak upper level trough will push east across northern Utah overnight. High pressure aloft will return behind the exiting trough for Friday through the upcoming weekend.
This afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop north of a warm front, with precipitation focused primarily over portions of northeast and east central KS. A brief period of dry conditions is expected tonight through Friday as a mid-level ridge builds into the central U. Despite clearing skies overnight, persistent light southerly flow will keep low temperatures in the low/mid 60s. Upper jet is displaced north across the northern tier/southern Canadian area with mean upper ridge over the central portions of the CONUS retrograding west into the end of the forecast.
842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Update/Aviation High pressure will continue to bring fair and seasonably mild weather through Friday. A low pressure system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend.
Slight warming is forecast for Friday as high pressure strengthens over California and onshore flow weakens. An approaching low pressure trough will bring slightly cooler weather to the area over the weekend. Low clouds have mostly cleared this evening due to brisk northerly winds mixing drier air into the low levels. Weak upper level ridging and weaker onshore flow on Friday will mean warmer temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with the greatest increases expected inland.
Warm advection continues with thermal ridge axis over the western fa by evening. With dewpoints expected to climb into the lower 60s and precipitable h20 values in excess of an inch sufficient instability and moisture available. Models are in pretty good agreement with timing the arrival of a cold front (and the best storm chances) into the western forecast area around 00z.
735 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today. The high will remain across the region tonight into Friday.
1256 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure will remain across the area today yielding fair weather with seasonable temperatures.
638 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak warm front remains stalled over MO, extending from northwestern MO southeastward to southeastern MO this afternoon. Otherwise, lows in the low to mid 60s. With increasing low level moisture, will be a bit more summer like with humid conditions and highs in the low to mid 80s.
Slightly cooler and drier. Also, a bit cooler than Thursday night with less cloud cover.
Lowered overnight low temperatures a degree or two as we are trending slightly cooler than previously forecast.
1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak warm front remains stalled over MO, extending from northwestern MO southeastward to southeastern MO this afternoon. Otherwise, lows in the low to mid 60s. With increasing low level moisture, will be a bit more summer like with humid conditions and highs in the low to mid 80s.
An upper trough will approach the region with moisture increasing out of the south. /Issued 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ Weak trough axis noted across southern Oklahoma has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma. Larger scale upper trough in conjunction with an uncapped environment will keep the area unsettled through the weekend.
1148 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Warm front continues to lift northeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, while a weak upper wave tracking out of northeast KS is interacting with a weakly unstable environment to the southwest of the front. The highest instability is mainly north of the Missouri River where an agitated cumulus field is developing, and this will remain the favored location for scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon as the wave passes through. There's a small chance that precipitation could redevelop late tonight in the vicinity of a lingering weak upper level boundary over northern and central Missouri, but most areas should stay dry into Friday as upper level ridging builds in overhead.
251 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 High pressure off the coast will continue moving east tonight. A cold front will move through Thursday night.
Moisture will begin to increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With the colder air moving in, this will allow for some snow across the higher elevations first, and likely ending as snow even in valley areas.
221 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2018 Dirty northwesterly flow is well established over eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon as a weak cold front passes over the northern half of the forecast area. Still, given the increased clouds, daytime highs further north are trending slightly cooler today. As the previous forecaster anticipated, areas along and south of the I-70 corridor have been trending warmer with the most impressive 24 hour jump occurring at Gunnison, Colorado - who, as of 1 PM, was sitting at 50 degrees. 18 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Overnight lows tonight will be several degrees warmer given the lack of radiational cooling. The overall intensity of showers should remain on the light side with no hints of any sort of banding yet on the high resolution models.
247 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 A cold front stretched from southeast KS into southwest OK this afternoon, with breezy and very mild conditions ahead of the front across our forecast area.
154 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Low pressure passing through Ontario Canada pulling an Arctic cold front southward into the region, currently extending from western Lake Superior through central MN/SD. Our area still in the warm sector of the low under mostly sunny skies. High pressure/Arctic air mass builds in on Thursday for mostly sunny but bitter cold conditions.
336 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Zonal flow prevailing over the Nation's midsection this afternoon as a low amplitude upper low continues to slowly move through eastern Manitoba and western Ontario. As we head into the overnight, dry conditions will prevail despite the passage of a secondary cold front early Thursday morning, as another spoke of energy dives south east across the upper Midwest. Following its passage, cold air will finally settle south over our region which will result in a noticeably cooler day tomorrow as highs only climb into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Following the aforementioned frontal passage, fcst models are in excellent agreement that arctic high pressure will settle south of our region, ensuring below normal temperatures continue right into the upcoming weekend.
The high pressure ridge stays centered over the Carolinas today, then pushes offshore tonight.
Amounts will be light with snow totals generally an inch or less (up to 2 inches across the highest terrain). A passing short wave trough increases the chance for light precipitation across the rest of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Thursday.
A warm front will bring steady light to moderate rain along the coast Wednesday night, then over the interior on Thursday. A more identifiable warm front will arrive on Thursday, causing rain to become even more widespread on Thu PM, plus the development of breezy E-SE wind along the coast. A flat upper ridge will develop around 130W-135W by Fri AM, with Western Washington lying on the dirty periphery of this feature.
242 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2018 A strong cold front has delivered much colder temperatures across the northern and central Montana today, along with areas of spotty snow showers.
Some progged low level moisture indicates a return of thickening stratocu from the west by tomorrow morning, then on the increase as an elongated cold front and attendant broad longwave trough approach from the NW.
316 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 A cold front will move through the Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday. With high pressure setting up to the southeast and an upper low in Canada, a warm advection pattern sets up across the region ahead of an approaching cold front for Thursday before midday. Today's mixing heights are relatively low and so as the low level jet leaves the region expect winds to die down. As the aforementioned cold front pushes into the region Thursday morning, there won't be much of a diurnal curve to this event, but rather more of a slowly falling temperature trend Thursday.
Clouds to increase in coverage on Thursday ahead of a surface cold front that will swing south across the region during the afternoon. Showers will also form along the front as instability increases due to deepening long- wave mid-level trough.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy overnight then clearing towards morning with lows ranging from the single digits far nw to the lower 20s far se. Thursday Night Arctic high pressure will bring light winds and cold overnight temperatures into the single digits above and below zero.
Scattered to broken cirrus will prevail through the period, courtesy of spillover from nearly stationary eastern Pacific tropical upper tropospheric trough parked west of southern Mexico.
Light northeast to east winds early this morning will gradually become southeast to south at 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure moves east of the region. The northwest flow pattern aloft gradually transitions zonal later this afternoon into tonight, while surface flow gradually becomes southeasterly to southerly later today as the ridge of high pressure continues to progress eastward. Temperatures will be a little warmer across the region today, with highs mostly around 60 to the lower 60s. Increased low level moisture will also lead to warmer overnight lows tonight in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
This feature will create a wind shift to the north, and bring in a cooler airmass.
/Issued 518 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018/ A weak cold front will push through all of the TAF sites by late this morning, turning the winds around to the north and northeast. High temperatures today should exceed normals by 10 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit, north to south respectively, prior to the arrival of a weak cold front.
Cold front is drug across the FA tonight-early tmrw, as the broad upper trof rounds/digs its energy across the mid Mississippi river valley.
A trough is well off to our west this morning, but plenty of mid and high cloud is streaming in over us on a weak to moderate zonal jet just north of us. Satellite shows these clouds increasing just offshore as a weak warm front begins to lift north across the area, so we should expect cloud and some sun breaks today (like we're getting right now in Medford). We don't expect any precipitation with this warm front this morning, but we may squeeze out some light rain or sprinkles over the north coast and into the western Umpqua Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Expect the low and cold front to be south of all but Lyman County by 00Z Thursday. With strong high pressure building in, breezy conditions will be the rule through much of the evening hours, lingering over our eastern counties through tonight.
1136 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Taking a look at the 17Z sfc weather map, the nearing low was over Campbell and McPherson Counties, with west to northwest winds and cooler air not too far behind. Main issue for today will be the area of low pressure and associated cold front that drop south/southeast across the region. Cold front will also be dropping south through the area this afternoon, with breezy/gusty northerly winds behind it, and strong cold air advection ramping up.
239 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 A cold front is currently beginning to sweep across central and southeast Illinois from the northwest. However, another front/trof (and driving short wave) will quickly follow on the heels of the first late tonight/early Thursday. Forecast soundings suggest the low-level moisture profile will remain quite dry as the secondary boundary passes through, but the moisture depth above the dry low-level layer is a bit more impressive with the upper-level short wave.
/issued 347 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018/ TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: High pressure will slide east across the southeastern US today, emerging out into the western Atlantic later tonight and Thursday. After a chilly start this morning, it will be another cooler day with temps in the low 70s and the pressure gradient supporting another day of breezy conditions. Similar conditions hold as we head into Thursday, though expect temps to be a little warmer in the mid to upper 70s. Easterly flow component will lead to milder temps tonight, holding in the low 50s across the NW interior, mid 50s over the remainder of the interior and Gulf coast, and low 60s along the east coast.
Near record highs today will be tempered somewhat by a cold front moving through tomorrow. Cooler air will be slow to move in, but quick to move out.
110 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2018 Strong high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the eastern Pacific for the foreseeable future.
Upper ridging still holds over southern Florida while troughing digs into the eastern half of the U. As this trough moves eastward, the ridge will be suppressed over Cuba and into the Caribbean Sea.
1154 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Update for midday includes adding pops as forcing with cold front and elevated baroclinic zone producing a narrow band of snow fall which has caused visibilities down to a half mile, albeit for brief periods, late this morning. The initial cold front is now through the region. A secondary cold front will propagate through the region from north to south this afternoon. Also expect increased cloud cover and possibly flurries with the passage of this secondary cold front.
A ridge of high pressure is building off the west coast. There is some moisture riding over the ridge and into the pacific Northwest that will bring some light precipitation to the forecast area.
Tonight will be warmer. Through the period a cut-off upper level low will remain off shore of the Baja Peninsula while an upper trough moves across the northern Central Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A cold front will move south Thursday, pushing through South Texas on Thursday night. With high dewpoints over the cooler coastal waters tomorrow night anticipate areas of sea fog to develop, especially across the northern area bays and nearshore waters. As the cold front pushes closer to the coast though, anticipate fog to clear.
323 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Large upper low sits over Ontario with surface cold front just now starting to nudge into our far northwestern coverage area with a sharp temperature gradient noted behind it. Wind chill values approach advisory criteria near the Buffalo Ridge but after coordination with neighboring offices, will hold off on any headlines. High pressure will provide for dry conditions and sunshine.
A cold front will move into the area Thursday morning, reaching the Abilene terminal right around sunrise. /issued 424 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Ahead of the next cold front, temperatures will continue above seasonal normals.
Snow showers will continue through the evening as the cold front pushes south and west, gradually decreasing late tonight. Snowfall totals of generally an inch or less can be expected over the lower elevations with a few inches possible over the mountains.
through Wednesday Strong ridge over the eastern Pacific steering jet stream well north into western Canada during the period. Jet stream dips back south across the northern Rockies as mean trough stays positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS.
327 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 Low pressure will move from Ontario into Quebec late tonight and Thursday. The first of two cold front associated with the low will move across the region late tonight and early Thursday. A stronger cold front will move through Thursday afternoon dragging much colder air into the area.
Models are in good overall agreement with 500 hpa troughing across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with flow across the Upper Midwest varying between zonal and northwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, weak low pressure was in place across eastern Colorado with a tight pressure gradient in place across the central Plains and Ozarks. As we head into early this morning, the brisk and gusty winds will continue along with the high cloudiness. Winds will then start to decrease around mid-morning as an approaching cold front begins to relax pressure gradients. Despite the high cloudiness today, temperatures should get rather mild with highs warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
1038 AM MST Wed Jan 31 2018 Current surface analysis shows initial cold front well south and east of the area, from MN to southern NE. Secondary cold front is located across southern ND into northeast MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over eastern Manitoba, with large scale trough extending southward into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. Secondary cold front to the north will push slowly south through the area today. Highs will range from the lower 30s across far northwest SD and the higher Black Hills to the low to mid 40s across southern SD. Thursday will be cold, but mainly dry, as high pressure passes to the north of the area.
Latest water vapor imagery does reveal a broad trough centered north of the Great Lakes region, with persistent high pressure over the Pacific Ocean. An associated jet streak is rounding the backside of the trough over the central and northern Rockies. A deck of altostratus has formed off the higher elevations on the south side of this jet streak and over the Oklahoma Panhandle. At the surface, a cold front has stalled across the southern Texas Panhandle, and is helping to keep both temperatures and winds below previous forecast. This front should advance further south overnight as the central Rockies trough axis finally pushes east into the plains. Northwest flow will become more dominant as the broad trough becomes established over the eastern CONUS.
An upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains is pushing a cold front into western Kansas early this morning. In the wake of an aforementioned cold front, temperatures should only reach into the 40s on Thursday. The large scale pattern for at least the next 10 days, and possibly through mid February, will continue to feature mean upper-level ridging over the West Coast and troughing over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Disturbances embedded in the jet stream will result in frequent cold frontal passages, with only small chances of post-frontal light snow with the stronger fronts. There is a tendency for the cold surges to be short-lived, with the brunt of the cold air shunted to the east of the high plains.
After a windy and mild day today, a cold front will bring chances for precipitation tonight and Thursday, along with much colder air. With central Indiana in between high pressure to the southeast and an approaching cold front to the northwest, the pressure gradient will tighten up across the area.
Believe winds will increase again by late morning, so we decided to extend the High Wind Warning through 00z. The cold front will inch slowly southward today, possibly stalling in the vicinity of the WYCO border by this evening.
1240 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 Cold high pressure will move offshore by Thursday.
132 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2018 Little change with this forecast update as the light snow continues in association with the Arctic cold front propagating across southern North Dakota as of 1930 UTC. A tight baroclinic zone will set up today as a second cold front swings through.
Attention tonight turns to the north with a southward surging cold front and strong cold air advection ensuing behind it.
Wind gusts could will likely be in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially over the high terrain of the west and along much of Lake Superior. Overall snowfall totals are not expected to be overly impressive as the DGZ is expected to drop down to the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Upper pattern consists of a 500 mb trough remaining over the eastern half of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over most of N. This trough remains through the forecast period and the cold air persists across the area as well. Gale warnings and heavy freezing spray warnings are up across Lk Superior.
Temperatures should reach near 70F for most of the area today and warmer tomorrow.
Benign weather pattern expected for the next 24 hours as the center of high pressure pushes offshore the Carolinas and its axis settles closer to the area.
Otherwise, a closed mid-level low is centered over central Manitoba with the associated surface cyclone moving east across Ontario. A trailing surface cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning.
Longwave troughing across the northern U. will send down a cold front late tomorrow aftn/early evening which will set up a temp gradient during the afternoon hours, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across southeast OK, southwest AR and extreme northeast TX, to upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. 90 inch range by tomorrow morning, and progged soundings indicate this low level moistening with the development of low clouds. Cold air invading the region will lift the underlying warmer air, and adequate frontogenetical forcing will aid in the development of isolated to scattered light rain showers commencing tomorrow morning.
Snow will taper off Thursday morning but some snow showers still continuing over the higher mtns through Thursday aided by orographics. Cold front slipping slowly westward late this afternoon and just passed Cheyenne with a temp drop from the upper 40s to near 30.
The theta-e lapse rates are not very good, rather stable, through the event and the lower layers start out dry. Temperatures will be highly variable, cooling down behind the troughs, but warming up between them.
Southwest to west winds will shift from the northeast 12-15Z tomorrow as a cold front moves through the area. Unfortunately, a trough moving thru Manitoba is pushing a cold front this way, w/models bringing it into the NE zones by 12Z Thu, and KMAF ~ 13Z.
As high pressure moves off the Carolina Coast, low level winds will veer to the southeast and bring gradually increasing moisture to the region. Look for afternoon highs in the lower 60s for the most part.
Winds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts of 20 knots or higher. A cold front currently arcing across the Central Plains continues pushing south and will be the primary weather maker late in the period. QPF will remain on the lower end as well with maximum values under a quarter of an inch. Cold air will lag the surface frontal boundary, so winter weather concerns are nil and sub-freezing air should not arrive in northern AR until late Thursday evening, after moisture and precipitation have pushed south and east of the area. By the end of the period, most areas will be near or below freezing with low 20s north and low 30s south.
220 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 As a cold front slowly approaches, occasional light rain and snow can be anticipated, through Thursday evening.
This is a result of building high pressure over the eastern Pacific, generally weak onshore flow near the coast and weak offshore flow over inland areas. The ridge of high pressure offshore is forecast to build inland over California through the upcoming weekend.
339 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 An area of high pressure moving into the western portion of the Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida for tonight and tomorrow. The region will remain on the southern side of the high pressure which will allow for the easterly flow to continue. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s across the the northwestern interior to the lower 60s across the east coast metro areas.