Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
430 AM MDT Fri May 28 2021 Clouds decreased over the forecast area beneath a transitory mid- level ridge of high pressure overnight. However, expect clouds to increase again later in the day as rising temperatures generate cumulus over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies is expected to bring increased mid and high clouds to the northernmost zones later in the afternoon and into the evening.
959 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises and cloud cover moves to the south. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected again tonight. Freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as cloud cover reduces. Highs today are expected to be in the high 50s and lower 60s as an upper level ridge settles over the Northland. However, these clear conditions along with subsidence overnight could cause temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Chances for precipitation return over the weekend as the ridge moves off and a trough moves east through Canada to replace it.
Rain chances will increase Friday evening through Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
554 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 The final remnants of the system which brought soaking rain to much of the area yesterday will push eastwards this morning, with dry conditions for the remainder of the short term period as high pressure swings south behind the departing trough.
639 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises and cloud cover moves to the south. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected again tonight. Freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as cloud cover reduces. Highs today are expected to be in the high 50s and lower 60s as an upper level ridge settles over the Northland. However, these clear conditions along with subsidence overnight could cause temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Chances for precipitation return over the weekend as the ridge moves off and a trough moves east through Canada to replace it.
/Issued 358 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021/ The first return of more appreciable rain chances in some time arrives today ahead of a cold front. This front will progress into the region as an upper trough drops from the Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes area today. Scattered coverage will increase and spread southeastward into the evening ahead of the surface cold front. Convection will push southeastward toward Middle Georgia into tonight as the cold front pushes through north Georgia. Cooler temperatures make a return tonight and Saturday behind the cold front.
616 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Today-tonight: North-northeast low level flow will advect cooler temperatures into the area today. Weak flow tonight as ridge moves across. Temperatures should be a bit warmer.
With dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heating into the lower 80s should be sufficient for deep convection to redevelop. Quite the shock to the system expected tonight into Saturday as a cool, dry air mass will move in behind the cold front.
739 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021 Rain returns today and overnight with crossing low pressure. Given the warm front will poke into southwestern PA, this is the only region where a concern albeit low for a damaging wind threat exists. A sharp contrast in max temperatures as usual when a warm front bisects your region. A trailing trough tonight and into the day on Saturday will lead to much cooler temps and intermittent shower activity through the day on Saturday.
From synopsis, High pressure stretching west across Florida will recede to the east into the western North Atlantic this afternoon and tonight.
The holiday weekend will be cooler than normal with highs generally near 70.
A new weather watch may be needed for western counties shortly (per MCD #786), and this will be over an area where >2 inch hail threats are higher, with cooler and drier air aloft west of a line from Burnet to Boerne to Crystal City. Colliding cells and the high pwat levels near 2 inches will congeal the storms into an MCS with a solid line expected by the time San Antonio is impacted. However, the coarser scale models do less with outflows and show more late night activity through the I-35 corridor rooted toward an amplifying mid level trough.
126 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley, across northern Arkansas and down into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. The front will continue south as high pressure builds across the central part of the country.
242 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 (Issued 232 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: Clouds continue to scatter out across our northern counties as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and this diminishing cloud trend will continue southward through the evening as the upper-level trough pushes east. it will be unseasonable cold for the start of Memorial Day Weekend thanks in part to the clearing skies and incoming high pressure. Areas east will either be a bit warmer thanks in part to northeasterly flow off the lake or winds will be a tad bit higher limiting frost development. The good news is warmer weather and sunshine will follow the unseasonable cold night tonight.
Strong instability is in place from south Texas northwest into the lower Trans-Pecos region to the Hill Country with MLCAPE values from 3000-4000 J/kg. Air mass is capped over south Texas, while convection has developed over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico and Big Bend, and along a frontal boundary over the Concho Valley. Expect storms over the higher terrain will move southeast toward the Rio Grande later this evening. Quiet weather conditions/dry forecast will be in store for Saturday night as an upper level ridge moves into south Texas.
Cooler air will be following the frontal passage. On Saturday, thermal troughing will dig across our area. 850 mb temps will be down to around 3C to 5C so highs should hold in the lower to mid 60s for most areas.
A short wave trough will scoot across the state tonight, triggering strong to severe weather farther upstream. High temps on Saturday will run from the upper 80s along the coast (cooler at the beaches), to near the century mark far west.
A cold front is just beginning to push into Northeast Arkansas at this time. /issued 334 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/ A cold front stretches from northeastern Missouri into central Oklahoma.
Upper ridge axis over the northern Plains slowly shifts east tonight into Saturday keeping cool conditions in place though more insolation and modification of the airmass should push temps into the mid to upper 60s.
WV satellite imagery depicts closed low center in southwest WI, with main piece of energy responsible for spotty shower activity on radar, pushing east across southeast IA.
Deep, cold upper level low pressure is moving overhead this afternoon, and we are seeing a corresponding increase in showers. Light rain/drizzle will also continue to fall out of the lower cloud deck, making for a chilly and locally damp afternoon. Skies will clear in the subsident regime behind the upper low was it pulls away overnight.
Better upper level forcing will continue to move into the area as the front moves in and the pre-frontal trough should provide a nice lifting mechanism for storms as can already be noted by the more vigorous convection ongoing across Alabama. Only concerns overnight appear to be the low cloud deck for aviation.
105 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Deep convection has redeveloped along a pre-frontal trough/wind shift line from middle TN into northwest AL. The cold front in southern IL and southea. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s at most areas, and possibly upper 40s in far northwest AL if low clouds do not preclude that later tonight. The clouds and cold advection through the day will keep temperatures quite chilly, with highs only in the 60s, with upper 50s to lower 60s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau in southern TN and northeast AL.
Saturday looks to be a little less active, w/the primary focus being orographic lifting on easterly flow to the higher terrain out west near the dryline.
250 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Primary concern in the short term will be temperatures getting down near freezing across portions of the area tonight, mainly in a horseshoe wrapping from north of the Twin Cities through west central Wisconsin then back into south central Minnesota. Otherwise, we'll see high pressure drift east through the period with return flow leading to an increase in cloud cover and shower chances from west to east Saturday night.
207 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021 Scattered heavy rain showers/thunderstorms have developed across most of north Georgia this afternoon in response to diurnal heating of the warm, moist airmass ahead of cold front moving toward the CWA. /Issued 358 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021/ The first return of more appreciable rain chances in some time arrives today ahead of a cold front. This front will progress into the region as an upper trough drops from the Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes area today. Scattered coverage will increase and spread southeastward into the evening ahead of the surface cold front. Convection will push southeastward toward Middle Georgia into tonight as the cold front pushes through north Georgia. Cooler temperatures make a return tonight and Saturday behind the cold front.
At the surface, high pressure will nose south through the western Great Lakes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Once we get to Saturday afternoon, we should see decreasing cloudiness as a 850 mb thermal trough slides off to our southeast. Highs on Saturday should range from the lower 60s across central Missouri to the upper 60s around Joplin and Pineville.
At the surface, high pressure was in control over the central Plains.
Pre frontal trough is currently bisecting the mid state but other than general convection, we are not seeing any strong storms on radar as of yet, Instabilities are increasing a touch across the central and southern Plateau. Winds will pick up throughout the morning as a cold front sweeps through the mid-state.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, primarily over the higher terrain south of US-50. Upper level zonal flow with westerly surface winds today gives way to a developing open 500mb trough centered over south-central California by Saturday. Best chances remain over the higher terrain of Mono County where surface convergence and upsloping will be greatest. With the position of the trough south of the region, winds will switch tonight becoming easterly for the remainder of the weekend. Some slightly enhanced easterly ridge winds will be possible Saturday night, but Sierra ridge-top gusts will generally remain less than 35 mph.
1134 AM MDT Fri May 28 2021 Clouds decreased over the forecast area beneath a transitory mid- level ridge of high pressure overnight. However, expect clouds to increase again later in the day as rising temperatures generate cumulus over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies is expected to bring increased mid and high clouds to the northernmost zones later in the afternoon and into the evening.
As for now, south to southeast winds have become breezy to windy across the higher elevations to the west of the Red River Valley.
This should make for some rather nice conditions tomorrow as high pressure at the surface and aloft move in behind today's frontal boundary. Highs tomorrow will be very nice, ranging from the lower 70s in the north to the lower 80s in the south.
Upper troughing and a large weather system is located near the western Great Lakes.
358 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front will continue to push through the region this evening.
Cooler air will also move in from the northwest and help winds east of the divide become more northerly this evening. With the broad trough moving from ID/MT over eastern MT and WY on Saturday and a weak vorticity max following, cooler 700mb air will also remain over northern WY. Looks like a couple of cool nights with some locations still getting close to freezing where we might hope for above freezing temps.
The combination of an overcast sky and low-level, upslope flow will greatly inhibit the degree of diabatic heating, with temperatures peaking in the lower-middle 70s area-wide today. Later this afternoon, a mid/upper-level ridge axis, now centered over the Four Corners and Intermountain West regions and decreasing in amplitude with southward extent, will progress over the CWA while deep-layer flow remains westerly. Sincavage An active pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, albeit with a brief respite on Saturday as upper level short wave ridging moves overhead.
Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to plummet during the overnight hours as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes region tonight. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the middle to upper 20s across north- central and much of central Wisconsin along with lows in the lower to middle 30s across much of northeast, central and east-central Wisconsin. High pressure will remain across the northern Great Lakes region on Saturday, as temperatures recover from the cool morning lows. Northeasterly winds will mean temperatures across east-central Wisconsin will actually be lower than further inland, with warmer temperatures across north-central Wisconsin without the feed of air off Lake Michigan.
242 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front will move into the region tonight and into Saturday.
310 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near the Wabash River into far west Kentucky.
Even if your forecast low says 34 degrees, the temperatures at ground level could be at freezing.
18 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front has moved into the Southeast and satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus across East Central Mississippi which is likely the initial signs of storm development ahead of this boundary. The airmass out ahead of this boundary across our region is warm - but not especially moist as drier air aloft has mixed to the surface, with most areas away from the coast having dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. The cold front is expected to either move through the region or dissipate on Saturday.
The southerly flow will keep temperatures from dropping as far tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 40s for most. The area of low pressure will slowly shift east, and we'll be stuck in between the main low crossing south central SD and low pressure to our southwest. The trough will still be over the western half of South Dakota by the end of the daytime hours Saturday.
It will be a chilly night tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s as clouds mostly clear out. The sun will make an appearance tomorrow as the mid level trough shifts off to the east.
Just off to the west is an area of low pressure over Montana, with a corresponding warm front. As the warm front nears the Panhandle late tonight, some light FGEN at 850mb will kick off precipitation in the Panhandle.
1241 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Early this morning a cold front was pushing its way through the area and should be east of the area during the early morning hours. Meanwhile, an upper level low will rotate across southern Wisconsin today, carving out a trough all the way into Missouri. This low will then shift eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs ranging from the just the lower 60s in central Missouri, to the lower 70s in south central Missouri and lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s.
109 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Today-tonight: North-northeast low level flow will advect cooler temperatures into the area today. Weak flow tonight as ridge moves across. Temperatures should be a bit warmer.
Upper level trough digs further south and east Saturday allowing an elongated tongue of ridging to fold into the upper Great Lakes. This ridging brings height rises locally as well as feeds in drier air with PWATs falling to below 0. The exception to this looks to be from Detroit south the Ohio border where some mid cloud continues to hold through the day, before clearing Saturday night as low pressure drifts further east. The overall 850mb airmass doesn't change much from Friday to Saturday with 850mb temps still holding a couple degrees above freezing. However, ample insolation will help to begin moderating temps allowing for highs to reach the low 60s (upper 50's for areas immediately downstream of Lake Huron).
Latest HRR model data shows the convection to continue across northwest and northern sections of the east Tennessee region and southwest Virginia associated with a pre-frontal trough but gradually become more numerous after 18Z and develop farther south. Flight conditions will improve early tonight as the activity moves out behind the cold front with winds shifting to westerly at 5-10 kts.
The final remnants of the system which brought soaking rain to much of the area yesterday will push eastwards this morning, with dry conditions for the remainder of the short term period as high pressure swings south behind the departing trough.
Should be a nice quiet evening as weak ridging takes place aloft, though areas out east in central MN and IA could see areas of frost as temperatures drop down into the mid-30s. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue tracking eastwards throughout the day, which will keep temperatures on the cooler side again, though should be a bit warmer with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Overnight, the strong upper level low in southern Canada continues to move eastwards, with the southern extent of the vorticity lobes extending into our area as well as a weak surface front.
with multiple boundaries left over and a weak cold front sagging southwestward into the area.
Pre frontal trough is currently bisecting the mid state but other than general convection, we are not seeing any strong storms on radar as of yet, Instabilities are increasing a touch across the central and southern Plateau.
346 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Tonight, an upper level trough and attendant front will bring a line of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms through the region. The surface pressure trough and convergence field is expected to arrive to the western border around 00Z-02Z. Behind the front on Saturday, cyclonic flow sets up aloft as the low rotates through with isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two again. Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer than Friday's with lows in the 40s and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
1156 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front will move into the region tonight and into Saturday.
These breezy conditions will push east tonight as the low does. Temperatures will remain cooler than average through the short term with highs on Saturday moderated by clouds and rain.
These storms will move east towards extreme western Kansas Saturday night and weaken as an upper level trough exits the Central Rockies and begins to cross the West Central High Plains. At the same time a surface boundary/next cold front will move into northern Kansas late Saturday which will provide additional forcing to enhance the probability of these storms continuing through the overnight hours as the upper wave crosses western Kansas.
A weak cold front is then forecast to slowly move across the Big Country later this morning and into the afternoon hours, reaching our central counties by mid to late afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 80s across the Big Country to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. (Saturday night through next Friday) By Saturday night, a weak 500mb ridge will try to build into west Texas, which should allow for a brief reprieve from the rain.
Cold front has passed and today will be mostly sunny and 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday along with breezy northwest winds.
333 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Although dry and less windy today, cloud cover associated with an upper trough has held temps in the 50s for much of the day but could still see a late day rise in temps with breaks in clouds and clearing moving in from the west.
Latest mesoanalysis shows MLCAPES have increased to 1000-1500 J/kg over SE MS and coastal AL, with MLCAPES of less than 500 J/kg over south central AL where dewpoints have mixed out into the lower 60s. Also, the convection will be aided by mid level height falls as an upper level trough begins to move into the TN Valley. Conditions will trend drier through the day as the cold front pushes offshore in response to the upper trough becoming more amplified and moving into the interior southeast and Mid Atlantic.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Summary: A large system brushes the southern portion of the forecast area today followed by widespread freezing conditions tonight. With such a cold day in store, it won't take much for temperatures to drop below freezing tonight as high pressure builds. There is some chance that a few lingering clouds will be around, but overall feel quite confident that the area will see widespread freezing temperatures. There will be a sharp cutoff with the precipitation gradient on the northern edge of the low pressure that passes today with only a sliver of QPF ending up in our forecast area.
Marine observations are showing gentle to light breezes, which will stick around through the weekend, providing boaters with near-perfect conditions on the water after this long stretch of elevated winds! High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to influence our weather through Saturday night.
This should drop mins solidly into the mid 30s north and east tonight (above records), with dewpoints either side of the freezing mark producing conditions favorable for frost.
106 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Deep convection has redeveloped along a pre-frontal trough/wind shift line from middle TN into northwest AL. The cold front in southern IL and southeast MO will arrive this evening, shifting winds to the northwest with a good dose of cold/dry advection. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s at most areas, and possibly upper 40s in far northwest AL if low clouds do not preclude that later tonight. The clouds and cold advection through the day will keep temperatures quite chilly, with highs only in the 60s, with upper 50s to lower 60s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau in southern TN and northeast AL.
At the surface, ridge extends from the western Great Lakes into eastern Nebraska/northeast KS. There is also good agreement between the GFS and NAM is tracking an upper impulse out of the Central Rockies and into the High Plains Sat night. Sun night into Mon morning will basically be a repeat of Sat night into Sun with another impulse moving out of the Rockies with another area of isentropic lift/moisture transport moving from the High Plains into our forecast area. With the loss of heat, we should see the low level cu dissipate and only have some sct high level ac or cs flow across the area.
302 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front continues to move across the Mid-South this afternoon. The clouds are associated with an upper trough that will be moving through the region. A few of the CAMS are showing even some light shower activity near the KY/TN state border shortly after sunrise as the upper trof moves into the area. Otherwise, high pressure will begin build over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. The high will remain over the Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend.