Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
711 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Several disturbances aloft from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic Region will help to amplify an upper level trough over the Appalachian Mountains later today through Monday, maintaining dry conditions across much of Pennsylvania. An upper low is likely to consolidate and break off from the main trough and jet stream this upcoming work week and drift into the Carolinas. Mins should bottom out in the lower to middle 40s north ranging to the lower to middle 50s south. Max temps Monday will vary from the mid 60s across the highest terrain of the Laurels, to the upper 70s throughout the Susq Valley.
356 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 An upper ridge will remain over the area for the next several days, resulting in a continuation of hot afternoon temperatures.
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 After a few mild afternoons the next few days we could see chances for rain begin to increase finally! Mid level ridging remains in place to start the week and will continue to suppress convection and even clouds across the area.
The Evening Update: Mostly thin BKN cirrus spreading SEwd over Norcal this evening ahead of a trof and surface front extending from the Pac NW back to the west across the NErn Pacific. This front should sag SEwd into Norcal with the upper trof to about a KSVE- Chester-Alder Springs line by 18z Mon and then into the I-80 corridor by 00z Tue. JHM Quiet pattern prevails across the region this afternoon under weak ridging. Afternoon temperatures are generally 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday's readings. Ensembles are in good agreement indicating a trough surging into the PacNW early this week. A warming trend is anticipated by mid-week as the trough pushes into the Great Basin and mid-level heights increase.
329 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure building into the North Country this morning will dominate the regions weather through the work week with no precipitation and moderating temperatures expected.
The cold front has moved through and significantly diminished any instability. These storms will continue to push eastward northeast as a cold front swings through. Scattered showers have moved through the west half of the state so far today, and these appear associated with warm advection ahead of the low. CAM models agree in developing a line of storms along the cold front that will move east into central North Dakota by mid evening. After this evening, the overnight will see the front move through with cooler and drier air expected. Overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s west to around 70 east. Tuesday will be warm, with highs in the low to mid 90s, cooling to the 70s and mid 80s the rest of the week.
Wind is light, although we are starting to see some northeast wind in West TN as the backdoor cold front we have been talking about for the past few days makes some progress into the area. High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler today, especially across Eastern portions of the Midsouth. Expect highs to range from the low 80s near the Tennessee River to the upper 80s near the Mississippi River in Northwest Mississippi and East Central Arkansas. Lower dew points, will move into the Midsouth today making temperatures feel even cooler. As the week progresses, a ridge over the Plains will shift East as a cutoff low over the Appalachians moves toward the Atlantic Coast. The Ridge will become the dominant feature dictating the weather across the Midsouth.
127 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected this evening, south of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure advances across West Virginia. As the upper low churns across the middle Ohio Valley, the best upper support for lift will continue to sink southward with time. By early tomorrow morning, the low pressure system will drift south, crossing the Tennessee Valley. High pressure is expect to build to our west Monday afternoon; dry, quiet weather will prevail. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather Tuesday, with temperatures warming back to seasonable levels.
H500 ridging will remain in place over and west of the state with an area of low pressure meandering its way south, east of the area.
00z NAM places a 1000 mb surface lee cyclone near Denver at 7 pm, forcing again about a 10 mb mslp gradient across SW KS by 4 pm.
1105 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected this evening, south of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure advances across West Virginia. As the upper low churns across the middle Ohio Valley, the best upper support for lift will continue to sink southward with time. By early tomorrow morning, the low pressure system will drift south, crossing the Tennessee Valley. High pressure is expect to build to our west Monday afternoon; dry, quiet weather will prevail. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather Tuesday, with temperatures warming back to seasonable levels.
126 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Clouds will gradually clear overnight into Monday morning as prevailing mid-level trough departs to the north and east.
Cloud cover will increase slightly Tuesday in the KY Pennyrile as high clouds from a cut-off low over the Mid- Atlantic try to push to the west. High temperatures today will reach into the lower 80s. Dew point temperatures will be in the lower 60s in SEMO prior to the frontal passage, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s east of the Mississippi River. Slightly warmer Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Lows Tuesday night will be slightly warmer, generally in the lower 60s. Nearly stationary mid/upper level low pressure system will begin the extended over the Carolinas, with ridging from the Plains northeast into the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is expected to stretch from New England southwestward through the Ohio Valley.
213 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Clear and calm weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with 07z temperatures in the lower 60s. An upper low currently centered across eastern Kentucky will drop south into Georgia today, bringing a secondary dry cold front through the area. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air into the region and help to keep temperatures about 8-10 degrees lower than yesterday (with most locations peaking in the lower 80s). The main story will be how pleasant it feels given the cooler temperatures and mainly dry weather expected.
Quiet conditions will continue this morning with the ridge building across the Upper Midwest. However, may see a few showers across our western counties (Sauk, Iowa, and Lafayette) this morning mainly between 12z-18z as a few weak mid-level impulses overrun the the top of the ridge and the associated dCVA aligns with lift from 700-850 WAA along the strong theta E gradient. Otherwise, quiet and warm conditions are expected as the narrow but high amplitude upper-level ridge holds firm over the region through the start of this week. Overnight temps will be warmer as well with lows in the 50s. Can expect even warmer temps on Tuesday as the high pushes into the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast and more southerly flow sets up across WI helping afternoon temps climb into the 80s.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the region through at least Monday night. That being said, high pressure at the surface will continue to build while a lee trough develops across the central High Plains. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will climb into the lower 90s across the area.
Clouds and showers are expected to increase again tomorrow morning as the closed upper low drifts southward. As the low continues to slowly move across the region another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expect this afternoon/evening. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 82 61 84 / 30 10 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 58 78 58 81 / 40 10 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 78 58 79 58 82 / 40 10 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 54 70 55 75 / 50 30 20 20 40.
Upper-level water vapor imagery and height fields indicate deep ridging is building into the Great Lakes as a mid-level low pressure system stagnates over the Mid-Atlantic and troughing develops across the west.
Mid-level ridging will continue over the course of the week with seasonal temperatures each afternoon as thermal ridge remains parked to the west over El Paso/NM. The biggest difference compared to the last several days will be warmer lows as return of the nocturnal jet will induce higher dew points, thus keeping temps on the warmer side at night. Hotter temperatures will begin poking back into the forecast area come Wed, moving forward as a slight breakdown on the western extension of the ridge will push the thermal trough back into our area.
The cold front has completely passed through Middle Tennessee, all earlier showers have dissipated, and we are now operating in VCP 32.
207 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The hot and dry weather pattern will continue for Kansas this period, as stout upper level ridging remains intact over the region. Models trends are in good agreement with a pattern change breaking down the upper level ridge axis, and a transition to west to east zonal flow regime setting up across central/northern plains.
Winds will keep temperatures up tonight to near 70 from Dodge City east, with slightly cooler readings to the west on more elevated terrain.
123 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Very persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will become established across the eastern US in the near term, with a closed low drifting across the southeast states and a strong ridge building to the west and north of this closed low. High pressure surface and aloft will support more dry weather for the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. After the cool start this morning, highs will reach the lower 70s in most areas.
Aloft, a well-defined upper level low, as seen on water vapor imagery, is currently rotating across far northeastern Kentucky. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level low shifting south into the Tennessee Valley through this morning, before gradually moving towards South Carolina through Tuesday. Freezing levels will also be notably higher, generally around 10k. Expect another diurnal drop off in the PoPs into this evening, as we lose heating and forcing relaxes, as the upper level low pulls further away. The main player weather wise through late this week will be a mid level closed low meandering to our east.
Upper level high pressure should suppress convection this afternoon and evening. Progged thicknesses suggest high temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday with the possible exception of the southeastern corner of the forecast area where thicknesses nudge just a bit higher.
A persistent upper level ridge will remain anchored across the central CONUS through at least mid/late in the work week. By late in the work week, a pattern change looks to evolve as a flattening of the Great Plains upper ridge occurs with the approach of stronger trough, allowing for an associated surface cold front to slide near/into the forecast area.
An upper level ridge will remain situated over the southern and central plains today with an upper trough across the northwestern United States.
Tonight and Monday Canadian high pressure will continue to edge east, with developing return flow bringing increased moisture into north central and central WI on Monday. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than the past couple nights, generally in the 40s, so frost should not be an issue. Highs on Monday are expected to reach the lower to middle 70s, except 60s along the Lake Michigan shoreline, due to southeast winds.
Compact upper level closed low centered over northeast Kentucky this evening will slowly drift south/southwest overnight. As this occurs, a low level inverted trough will rotate westward from Pennsylvania. Low level moisture is expected to increase with the low level trough, and with weak lift, clouds will thicken and lower. For the overnight period, there will be a lingering slight chance across the eastern half in association with the inverted trough. Weak surface trof and associated isentropic lift will lead to a slight chance of a shower on Monday. An upper-level cutoff low will be located southeast of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning as high pressure over the Northeast influences sensible weather.
And, for lack of a better way to phrase things, I'll continue to sound At any rate, longwave upper ridging will remain anchored from west Texas to the Great Lakes Region through the short term, with weak surface ridging in place. Similar to the last several days, a weak disturbance moving around the periphery of the upper ridge will allow for isolated, diurnally-driven convection, primarily over the northern half of the state.
In between, an amplified ridge extended into the Great Lakes with moisture transport/warm advection upstream across the plains resulting in more cloud cover and scattered convection to the west. With the ridge holding steadfast across the western Great Lakes, the stronger moisture transport will remain focused west of the region. Mainly dry weather is expected tonight under the influence of the ridge. Quiet and increasingly warmer weather will continue through mid-week as the blocking upper low to the east prevents the upper ridge over the Great Lakes from progressing quickly.
High pressure to the northeast has become established across most of the central and southern US this morning. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s and the heat indices mainly in the mid with some upper 90s at times. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
354 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure building into the North Country this morning will dominate the regions weather through the work week with no precipitation and moderating temperatures expected.
Otherwise, a low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area this weekend. Expect mostly dry conditions today with an upper level ridge building into the area and high pressure at the surface. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80F inland, and from the low to mid 70s near Lake Michigan.
High pressure will be the primary influence on central Indiana through the work week. An upper low was spinning near West Virginia. The upper low will meander to the southeast of the area today, and moisture will rotate west around it, eventually reaching parts of central Indiana this afternoon.
1123 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Conditions have improved over the High Wind Warning area, so have opted to cancel. The front range may see a few storms lift across the high plains Tuesday afternoon and evening as another short wave trough aloft lifts out to the northeast, but the these storms should not move far enough east to affect the forecast area.
(Today through Tuesday) Transient mid-high level cloud cover will increase by late in the day as mid/upper tropical moisture slowly spreads north between the longwave trough to our west and southeast U. Along with the modest moisture increase, slightly cooler mid (H7) temps will also spread north over the region.
Skies were mostly clear with only a few cirrus seen on satellite imagery across the west, which were topping an upper level ridge axis that reached from TX to western WI. Otherwise, most of the area will have comfortable humidity levels with high temperatures from the mid 70s northeast to lower 80s in the far southwest, which will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, following a continued day to day gradual moderating trend. Thus have lows from the lower 50s east to around 60 west under mostly clear skies with light southeast winds.
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Overall little change is expected during the period as upper ridge remains over the forecast area.
This has led to a bit warmer temperatures this morning and a status cloud deck is expected to develop around sunrise across much of the region. With the increased moisture and a weakness in the mid to upper level ridge, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late morning and continue into the afternoon hours for the the Coastal Plains and even extending further north and west into the San Antonio metro area. High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s in the Hill Country to the low 90s elsewhere. For Tuesday, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift further west toward the Rio Grande, with high temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor (low to mid 90s).
Brownsville radar currently indicates some activity across the lower Texas Gulf waters.
The far southern end of an upper trough is in place over the region and is helping to keep some lingering breeziness going - but not as much as yesterday. Ridging over the central CONUS will expand westward slightly on Monday. Another strong trough passes to the north on Tuesday for an uptick in breeziness.
253 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Outside of a few lingering isolated showers today, mostly dry weather is expected into midweek as high pressure takes control. An upper low, currently near Huntington WV, will continue to drift southward today and cross the Tennessee Valley. The rest of the shower activity remains tied to the circulation around the upper low. Any such activity will end by sunset in the face of developing high pressure.
354 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The main player weather wise through late this week will be a mid level closed low meandering to our east.
/issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the Southern and Central Plains through Monday.
259 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Continued quiet with a blocking pattern remaining in place and a sharp upper level ridge axis extending from the western Great Lakes to west TX. Some cooler/drier air will backdoor it's way into the area from the east, especially later today tonight and temperatures look to be cooler over the eastern cwfa.
This is associated with an upper-level trough centered over the SE CONUS. The circulation around the low will continue filtering in dry mid-level air, and this will work to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity through mid-week. Rain chances will begin recovering late in the work week as the upper-level trough is pushed out of the area by westerly flow and a weak upper-level ridge builds back in.
210 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 An upper level low drifts southward into the southern Appalachians today, before wandering about the middle Atlantic states much of the week. A cut off upper level low pressure system will drift slowly southward today, pushing into South Carolina tonight.
Negligible temp advection occurs at H85 as temps remain in the lower 20s C overnight. The main upper ridge that was responsible for summery conditions flattens and gets held to the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a closed low meanders across the northern Rockies and southern Prairie Provinces.
Monday will be warmer and have opted to keep highs mostly the same as the previous shift with western MN likely to reach the low-90s. West-central WI will be slightly cooler in the low-60s.
249 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Very persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will become established across the eastern US in the near term, with a closed low drifting across the southeast states and a strong ridge building to the west and north of this closed low. High pressure surface and aloft will support more dry weather for the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. After the cool start this morning, highs will reach the lower 70s in most areas.
Cooler and drier high pressure continues to work its way into western North Dakota and will spread into central ND during the day. Cooler and drier air will move into western and most of central ND today. Another upper level low will move onto the Pacific Northwest coast by early Tuesday. Upper level ridging today and tonight will produce dry conditions. The cold front that moves into easter ND today, stalls tonight and lifts back north through the forecast area as a warm front on Tuesday, in response to the digging upper trough and surface cyclogenesis that takes shape over the Mondak region Tuesday.
Tranquil boating conditions are expected to continue across the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control, with northeast to north winds around 10 knots with slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
The Desert SW is just downstream of a weak trough, which is at the very southern end of a much broader trough pattern across the northwest CONUS. Also of note is a very high amplitude ridge through the center of the U. This will keep weak troughing just to the west of our region with dry southwest flow.
524 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper trough is crossing Montana and Alberta, with southwest flow continuing across the northern Plains. With the cold front having passed through late last night, cooler temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Return flow quickly returns tonight as the high pressure moves off to the east.
313 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Today will be a little warmer and the marine layer a little shallower with coastal clouds only extending inland to the western valleys early this morning.
Temperatures today should be just a bit cooler than yesterday due to showers and an increase in clouds.
311 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a upper ridge over the Central CONUS, flanked by upper troughs to the east and west. The overall large scale pattern undergoes slight changes as a upper low over the Eastern OH valley settles southeast, and upper low off the Southeast AK coast moves ashore over WA/OR. The upper ridge will become more elongated and stretch from New England through the Midwest into the Southern Plains.
It appears that most of the typical diurnal afternoon convection will occur west of the forecast area along the weakening backdoor type cold front where low level moisture and instability will be maximized.
Southeast Arizona is caught between a trough of low pressure through much of the rest of the region to our northwest, and high pressure from northern Mexico through the central plains. Drying the rest of the week from an increasing westerly flow as the trough shifts north of our area and the high center reconsolidates south of us.
531 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a upper ridge over the Central CONUS, flanked by upper troughs to the east and west. The overall large scale pattern undergoes slight changes as a upper low over the Eastern OH valley settles southeast, and upper low off the Southeast AK coast moves ashore over WA/OR. The upper ridge will become more elongated and stretch from New England through the Midwest into the Southern Plains.
Today will be a few degrees warmer as heights and thicknesses increase behind the departing system. Cooler air with the passing system will drop temps back to several degrees below climo for Tuesday. Weak high pressure will then slowly build over the region and temperatures will trend gradually upward through the end of this week.
835 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Dry conditions and near normal temperatures can be expected into midweek with high pressure in control. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures expected today as an upper low drifts south across the Tennessee Valley. The upper low will start to drift back northward during the midweek period.
The main site that this could impact would be KLFK, but so far the lowest they have dropped is 8 miles. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the region through at least Monday night. That being said, high pressure at the surface will continue to build while a lee trough develops across the central High Plains. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will climb into the lower 90s across the area.
Forecast models maintain projections that a closed low pressure system will move through the region and target southwest and west- central Montana with moderate to heavy rain and snow.