Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our local work height product showing the 850 mb and 700 mb gradients remaining about the same through the early afternoon, so will leave the high wind warning intact as winds should remain near criteria. Relatively mild day on tap with west northwest flow aloft in the warm sector ahead of the next approaching cold front. Cooler temperatures behind the passing cold front with 700 mb temperatures near -4 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the upper 20s to near 40 degrees, along with less wind as the low and mid level gradients weaken considerably.
A weak front will swoop down from the north today and may bring spotty light snow showers to the higher elevations tonight.
1022 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure centered near the Arklatex region drove a cold frontal surge through the Florida Keys shortly before sunrise. The forecast is on track and describes a cooler, less humid, windy afternoon.
Strong winds are no longer expected and the High wind warning has been cancelled. A few light snow showers are possible through early this morning across north central MT following the cold front with little or no accumulation anticipated. A cold front stretches across Montana this morning and will move into southern Montana by 18Z. Elsewhere, areas of light snow associated with the cold front passage will cause local MVFR/IFR conditions.
the high temps appear in the ball park and the remainder of the short term forecast appears on track for now. A fast moving cold front is currently oriented W-E in a line from Ritzville to Tillamook and will travel south this morning across the forecast area and will exit the region by 4 PM this afternoon. and the upper level trough associated with the front will remain over WA/OR on New Years Day.
541 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build across the region late tonight through Sunday.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper low over Mexico with a short wave trough moving across the Northern and Central Plains this afternoon. Best deep layer forcing will occur ahead of the approaching trough this evening through 10Z Sunday. Lows tonight will only cool into the lower 30s in north central to the upper 30s east.
With the surface wetbulb temps running above freezing over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, not to mention dewpoints above freezing in south central Kentucky, confidence is fairly high that precip type will remain all rain. Freezing levels will drop a little tonight, but with the warming in the lower layers, expect any initial mix of rain/snow on the northern edge to become rain. Surface temperatures around daybreak will hover near freezing in our Bluegrass and southern Indiana counties, but any precip should be light enough not to cause any driving hazards, especially with relatively warm road temperatures. That precip will kick east of here Sunday night, with high pressure building in behind it.
548 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 At 2 PM, water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short wave trough over eastern South Dakota and another short wave trough moving into the Nebraska pan handle. The first short wave trough will move northeast through Minnesota tonight.
645 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Weak upper trough Sunday into Sunday night.
Looking at the forecast soundings across the higher terrain. expect a mixture of snow/sleet across the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 47 45 56 / 100 100 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 47 42 54 / 90 100 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 39 47 42 54 / 80 90 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 46 39 53 / 60 80 70 50 NC.
Weak upper ridging will cover the state tonight and Sunday with subsidence in place. Some mid level moisture trapped over the mountains will keep isolated light snow showers over the mountain ridges through this evening, but as the subsidence increases tomorrow, precipitation in the mountains will come to an end.
934 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Weak upper trough Sunday into Sunday night.
655 PM PST Sat Dec 3 2016 Deep low pressure will bring rain, wind, and heavy mountain snow to the Inland Northwest tonight into Sunday.
A little concern for possible light freezing drizzle over the far eastern James River Valley as lower atmosphere is saturated with no ice aloft. Therefore the threat of light freezing drizzle looks to be minimal, with a greater threat towards the Red River valley late this evening and into the early morning hours.
With the warm front reaching the coast early this morning and quickly pushing back offshore, persistent cloud coverage and northerly flow has kept temperatures cool in the 50s and 60s today.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available IR satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict a still sharpening full latitudinal trough oriented from Saskatchewan down to Southern Baja California. Well downstream and to the southeast of that feature the center of an expansive deep and warm middle and upper anticyclone was positioned over the Western Caribbean Sea. South Florida and the Florida Keys lie on the northern periphery of the deepest ridging with water vapor imagery delineating very dry air. Temperatures along the Reef are still in the humid mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. But the drier air associated with the middle level ridging is progged by the forecast soundings to seep down later across the Keys, keeping only a slight chance for showers overnight.
There have been some reports of light freezing rain back behind and to the south of the main precip band, and there have been some lowered visibilities in spots. Not getting too much ground truth, but a spotter reported refreezing melted snow had brought slick spots in west central MN. Will include a period of freezing drizzle between the first band of snow lifting through and the next one coming in from the west. Do not think at this point it will be long lived enough to warrant headlines, but have some short term products mentioning slick spots on roads from FZDZ/melted snow that is refreezing.
621 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday.
High pressure to the north remains in control of the weather with dry conditions expected overnight and again on Sunday.
As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over South Dakota with a WAA band of pcpn crossing the eastern CWA. With temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain, with pockets of snow.
534 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region tonight and Sunday, before moving offshore Sunday night.
842 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Dry conditions will persist through this evening with surface ridging across the region.
839 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Starting to have some returns on radar out west with the next short wave trough moving in. As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over South Dakota with a WAA band of pcpn crossing the eastern CWA. With temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain, with pockets of snow.
Update Upper trough continues to push through the region tonight minor very light flurries in the east remain possible for the next couple of hours. Upper ridging will be the dominant player on Sunday, again making for mild temperatures, with southwest winds at the surface. Sunday night the surface cold front will quickly push through, bringing increasing northwest winds, as well as better potential for a quick shot of snowfall.
Warm frontal boundary sitting off the coastline of Texas and Louisiana with rain. so watch out near the warm frontal boundary or avoid. The coastal trough/warm front has nudge a little further off the coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level low remains over the Baja region. Rua There is not expected to be much movement in the coastal trough/warm front.
Snow will start in the north, possibly by midnight across the higher elevations of Baker County and the Boise/West Central Mtns of SW Idaho. The snow levels will begin at around 3000 feet before rising ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon, so a rain/snow mix is possible in portions of the Treasure Valley in the morning.
709 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build in later today but slide quickly off to the east on Sunday. Low pressure over ME and Canadian Maritimes will move to the east and relax the NW flow - but not until late today and this evening. Still looking for an inch or less for accums on the higher ridges in the NW, and nil elsewhere. Temps will be cooler tonight without so much wind to keep us well-mixed. Just the highest hill tops of the SE may get a dusting. It is a nighttime event, and temps in the nrn tier are much more likely to be sub-freezing all night. The ridge moving to the east will be followed by a large mesocyclone emanating for a large upper level low moving into the northern Great Lakes region.
A dry pleasant evening is expected across South Florida with northeasterly flow keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than normal and bringing periodic clouds to the east coast. Overnight lows will range from the low-mid 60s along the Gulf coast and interior and low 70s for the East coast.
628 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Dry conditions will persist through this evening with surface ridging across the region.
Temperatures will remain steady in the lower to mid 40s. Temperatures will not fall much tonight due to the clouds and rain as lows Sunday morning will remain in the low to mid 40s. By Sunday, a warm front will be along the Gulf coast with a series of low pressure centers forming along the front. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Bu Sunday night, high pressure will briefly build into the region which will push the moisture south somewhat. Temperatures will be a little cooler in areas where the rain ends as clouds decrease somewhat.
This translates to warmer temperatures along the mid slopes while the valleys may struggle and kept the lower guidance forecast in place below 7000 feet.
412 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 The coastal trough/warm front has nudge a little further off the coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level low remains over the Baja region. Rua There is not expected to be much movement in the coastal trough/warm front.
939 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Dry conditions will persist through this evening with surface ridging across the region.
313 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 Weak upper ridging will cover the state tonight and Sunday with subsidence in place. Some mid level moisture trapped over the mountains will keep isolated light snow showers over the mountain ridges through this evening, but as the subsidence increases tomorrow, precipitation in the mountains will come to an end.
A high pressure ridge has produced dry weather across the region tonight with slightly warmer temperatures occurring. A weak cold front will move across the region Sunday producing a chance for rain across the area.
/issued 343 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/ (Tonight and Sunday) An unsettled pattern will continue during the next 24 hours as a well developed upper level low remains over northwest Mexico. The highest rainfall amounts(0. Temperatures will remain cold, with lows in the lower 40s and highs Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
/issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/ Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues ahead of a cutoff upper level low.
This as moisture streams north and the moisture begin to lower into the lower levels overnight.
With the cloud cover and rain, temps should stay about where they are now, in the low 40s.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Snow is now pushing into far southwest Minnesota from South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska as a trough lifts northeast from the central Plains. Most of the snow will fall late tonight and Sunday in those locations, when temperatures may be warming into the low to mid 30s.
524 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Rain will gradually develop and increase from the south into this evening as the lower atmospheric column moistens in advance of an approaching mid level trough and isentropic upglide develops. A few snow flakes mixed with the rain cannot be ruled out overnight across the eastern Ozarks given the lower wet bulb temperatures. However no accumulation or impacts are expected as temperatures remain above freezing. The rain will come to and end from the west Sunday as the mid level trough makes its way across the region and a weak front pushes across the area.
1028 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region tonight and Sunday, before moving offshore Sunday night.
WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN THE LOWER 30S. WHICH DRAGS A ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS MARGINALLY COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO HOLD NORTH OF NC. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WED MORNING (ECMWF) OR WED EVENING (GFS). THE OP GFS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GEFS MEAN REGARDING TROUGH/FRONT SPEED. SO EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THU. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
1248 PM MST FRI FEB 26 2016 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A FAIRLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TO THE WEST A LONG BAND OF CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ONSHORE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH HAD MOVED THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BREEZY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. FOR TONIGHT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS WARMER THAN ALMOST ALL MODEL DATA. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT.
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW SAT. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE DRY UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEK IS NOW BREAKING DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THE LOW HAS HELPED PULL UP SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS ONSHORE P-GRADS STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE RIDGE LINE IS A BIT SLOWER ARRIVING. AHEAD OF RIDGE THERE IS A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPING LOW STRATUS OVER THE CWA. THINK THAT THE HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS W. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM ROCKIES THROUGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING THE REGION.
1140 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
WARM AND DRY TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST TODAY. PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL COME THROUGH ERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND WRN IDAHO SATURDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. BREEZY AND A FEW DEGS COOLER SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING IN CENTRAL IDAHO.
404 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
1137 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 A PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE WEST. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BCCONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL ELEVATE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY.
Our weather pattern will become breezy at times over the weekend with chances for rain in the lowlands and accumulating snow in the mountains. The ridge of high pressure that brought dry and mild weather to the region is moving east as a Pacific trough approaches the PacNW coast. Our high pressure ridge will translate eastward today and tonight as a cold front moves east of the Cascades around 03z this evening.
SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
137 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016 WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT ALONG OUR I-20 CORRIDOR FROM KDFW TO KJAN. MANY SITES WILL GO CALM WITH A LIGHT S/SW TOMORROW AS THE HIGH CENTERS UP IN THE LOW ELEVATION DELTA REGION AND DRIFTS EASTWARD.
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINISHES PUSHING THROUGH. TT /ISSUED 303 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016/ THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY YESTERDAY EVENING IS FINALLY MOVING THROUGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SO FAR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CLEARED TEMPS QUICKLY DROP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM EACH DAY.
NEXT DISTURBANCE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF COLD FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE SAT AFTN. UNTIL THEN EXPECT INTERVALS OF BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH THICKENING MID CLOUDS ON SAT AFTN OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NAM SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THROUGH THE AREA SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE BROADUPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING MORE TO THE EAST.
THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY CONTRIBUTING TO SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BRINGING MORE COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FOR SATURDAY WITH WARMER HEIGHTS PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS.
WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
1236 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OREGON COAST AT 2 PM MST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OREGON TONIGHT AND REACH THE OR/ID BORDER AROUND 4 AM MST SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUDS AND MIXING WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
1028 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH TODAY.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S NATURE COAST. WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES SOUTH TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA.
419 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
316 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
235 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS.
320 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
131 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT-SAT: RAPID/LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
303 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY UP THE VALLEY. ALLOWING TEMPS TO EASE INTO THE LOWER 40S FROM MORRISOWN SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED IN MOST SPOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR QUIET.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK THANKS TO A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS WILL AWAKE TO A REFRESHINGLY COOL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT.
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 TROUGH W. RIDGE E. THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT TODAY. MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK. THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID 80S WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TENDS TO BE MINIMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TO THE WEST WHERE THERE IS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS RIDGING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS.
PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.