Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front has pushed through the area as of 9 PM, and all shower activity has ended save for a rogue remnant in the upslope areas. Fries Sunshine be common across the region on Friday, but with much cooler temperatures and highs only reaching the 40s. High pressure will settle into the region for the weekend, with near seasonal temperatures expected and dry conditions.
Key West Doppler radar scans have shown persistent development of isolated, southwestward-moving rain showers, mainly over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A broad, deep ridge covers the North American subtropics. Local, near-surface winds are neither cyclonic nor anticyclonic, as seasonably low mean sea level pressures persist across the Caribbean basin while a continental high pressure cell centered over the southern Plains migrates eastward, poised to replace one that is ejecting quickly east-northeastward over the North Atlantic. Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated only weak conditional instability, but also weak convective inhibition energy, and the lower troposphere was just moist enough to support shallow, moist convection, especially over the Gulf Stream.
Fortunately, temperatures should not be as warm tomorrow with temperatures a few degrees cooler and plentiful sunshine. Elsewhere, a cold front currently located over the Tennessee Valley will slowly meander east before stalling across the Florida Panhandle this weekend and will not have any meaningful impact on our weather in West Central Florida. Broad area of high pressure to our north continues to dominate our weather pattern across West Central Florida.
627 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Cold front with light showers exits the eastern mountains tonight. High pressure for the weekend.
658 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A passing cold front, will bring a few rain showers this evening, and then perhaps a few flurries, later tonight into early Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with a gradual moderation in temperatures, and mainly dry weather. Narrow cold frontal rain band continues to push through CNY/NEPA early this evening. At first, enough low-level moisture should reside underneath the lowering subsidence inversion for a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds across CNY, along with a few flurries or light snow showers. Shallow moisture (as just mentioned), only nominally chilly air, and a rapid approach of surface ridging will keep the Lake Ontario response minimal. Friday night, as surface ridging builds directly overhead, we should see mainly clear skies.
A quick return to southwesterly flow will occur tomorrow as weak surface lee troughing becomes reestablished.
/issued 256 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/ A weak cold front has cleared most of the Midsouth with temperatures ranging from near 60 in Paris, TN to the low 70s in north MS.
A slightly cooler airmass over the area today, combined with the light winds and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop to around the freezing mark by morning, which is around normal for this time of year. Surface winds will gradually swing around to the south later Friday as the high slides eastward. Mild and dry conditions are expected for the weekend with weak upper ridging building into the area.
The lowest flight restrictions will once again be mainly southeast of a line from the Golden Triangle area through the Jackson area through Brookhaven. Once any lingering clouds diminish, Friday should be mostly sunny with slightly cooler (though still quite seasonable) conditions.
507 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 High pressure is building into the center of the country this afternoon, with an upper trough moving through the Great Lakes and ridging along the northern Atlantic coast. A cold front associated with the upper level trough has moved through IL last night and this morning. In the wake of the boundary, cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds dominate. The clear skies behind the front will continue through the overnight hours as the high pressure ridge axis drifts eastward.
With the center of the high shifting over southern Illinois by early friday, winds look to shift more southerly past 09z. Thus leaned closer to the cooler MET MOS from Mason City to Waterloo to Ottumwa areas. The north to northeast look to see some cloud cover and a cooler start Friday morning and thus likely to stay in the lower 50s. This is where the lowest RH values dip to 35-40 percent and winds look to gust to as high as 25 to 30 mph at times past 18z. /Friday night through Thursday/ Weak front will progress through the state on Friday night with only minor push of cooler air into the state.
Mostly sunny, lower humidity and slightly cooler by a couple of degrees is forecasted for Fri.
640 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Cold front with light showers exits the eastern mountains tonight. High pressure for the weekend.
A cold front will produce light rain showers and Cascade snow through this evening.
Mid-to-upper level moisture is streaming into Arizona with weak low pressure set up off of northern Baja California. Then, low pressure across the Pacific Northwest is expected to shift eastward with most energy and moisture remaining to our north.
Similar to past mornings, it may take into the mid/late morning hours to see the low stratus/fog eventually erode. This coverage may blossom Friday night as high pressure wedges southwest and we may have weak isentropic lift.
20Z water vapor imagery shows a weak confluent flow aloft with an upper low off the Baja of California and the stronger westerlies moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure with dry air was centered over central KS.
533 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 00Z TAFS High pressure is building over the region this evening resulting in clear skies and light winds.
558 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 An area of high pressure is moving across the Central Plains today allowing for mostly sunny skies across the area that will persist throughout the next few days. The high will continue to move through the area tonight and exit to the east on Friday morning.
Light southerly winds AOB 10 kts will occur through midday Friday, increasing to BTWN 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts as a surface trof intensifies to the west of the terminals. Some clouds are moving ahead of a weak trough over the SW CONUS which may bring slightly warmer overnight lows compared to yesterday, but not by much. With southwesterly flow returning on Friday, temperatures will warm up to some areas in the western TX Panhandle reaching the lower 70s, well above average. Another weak cold front will make its way into northern areas bringing slightly cooler temperatures back into the lower and mid 60s.
817 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 The cold front that brought the light rain this afternoon/evening looks to be right over Huntsville as of the 8PM observations. The overall pattern is xpcted to be rather quiet going into the weekend period, as high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains builds ewd into much of the SE region. Temp trends thru the weekend look to be near/slightly above normal for this time of the yr, with highs predom in the mid 60s and lows in the lower/mid 40s. As a trough amplifies across the western half of the U. , it will push the ridge over the U.
Temps are running anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than last evening, with dew points running even lower than that. /issued 533 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/ 00Z TAFS High pressure is building over the region this evening resulting in clear skies and light winds.
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow over Texas with a weak ridge over the southwestern part of the country. At the surface, a weak cold front was stretched across Central Texas just north of our CWA. The low amplitude upper level ridge will move across from the west and the cold front will drop south and dissipate. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer the next couple of nights.
Although the morning will start out mostly clear, some mid and high clouds will increase across the area today from southwest to northeast as a warm front approaches. The lower atmosphere remains dry, so some of the initial showers may be just some sprinkles.
218 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A broad area of low pressure will continue to spin over the Northeast and eastern Canada into the first half of the week.
412 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the plains and troughs in the western and ern U.
Temperatures will be a bit below normal for the latter half of the week, but still in the lower to middle 60s for afternoon highs and lows at night in the 40s. Today will be similar to yesterday, just a few degrees warmer and less wind as low level ridge axis becomes better established.
655 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Low pressure in Quebec will slowly move northward today while a trough extending southward from the low remains stationary over the area. Unsettled and cool conditions will remain over the area until late week due to an upper level low over the region. The persistent upper low is currently over upstate New York.
355 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017 A large upper level low was located over the northern Baja this morning. A cold front is surging southeastward this morning but will stall out over northeastern Colorado or perhaps extreme northwestern Kansas tonight. By Tuesday the aforementioned upper level low will be situated over southern Arizona, with meridional mid level flow over the southern high plains into Colorado. Highs will be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s due to perhaps the increasing low and high level moisture.
Large area of strong surface ridging and dry air thru the column remain locked over the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. Strong surface ridging and dry air will remain locked over the Western Great Lakes region today and tonight. Cold Canadian airmass still in place combined with clear skies and light winds will allow temps to once again drop well below freezing tonight. Frost Tuesday night is possible as the low temperatures fall to between 32 and 35.
322 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Main focus remains on increasing thunderstorm chances, including the risk of severe storms, with the approach and passage of an upper low through mid-week. The upper low in question is currently digging southward just off the coast of far southern California/northern Baja.
The ridge will push off quickly to the east as low pressure centered over South Dakota early this morning, drops southeast to eastern Iowa by sunrise on Tuesday. The models are coming into better agreement with the focused deep UVV expected ahead of the low in the strong warm, moist advection pattern and frontogenesis ahead of the low across southwest Wisconsin. Once the low level jet kicks in over eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening, the moisture advection will be impressive. The highest values staying across our southwest forecast area. The wave shifts to the southeast for the afternoon and the lower level forcing decreases as well. Low level thermal trough with 925 temps 6-8c will keep temps in the 50s with many areas lakeside remaining in the 40s.
Rain and Storm Chances by Upper level ridging will move over the region today through Tuesday which means quiet and warm weather for the Missouri Ozarks. Fair skies will be expected today and tomorrow with highs in the lower to middle 80s. A large slow moving upper level low will start to move out of the southwestern U.
137 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure over the MS River Valley will build southward across the Gulf Coast states through mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week. Weak high pressure and drier air continue building into the forecast area and will result in clear skies overnight. Ridging extending along the northern Gulf Coast will direct a dry west flow into the forecast area, but there will be increased moisture near the north part of the area Monday night and Tuesday associated with a stalled front extending through North Carolina. The models indicate rising 500 mb heights over the forecast area as the Great Plains ridge and Northeast States low shift eastward slightly.
449 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017 Current surface map shows cold front from near KMBG-KPHP-KCUT. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue across the northwest with thunderstorms expanding in coverage along cold front from southern Black Hills into south central South Dakota. Upper low currently over the southwestern CONUS slowly drifts into the central/southern plains over the next few days. Northern stream ridge builds across the northern plains for the end of the week as upper low remains cutoff across the southern/central plains. This will result in dry conditions with warmer temperatures. Thunderstorm chances will increase over the weekend as next upper trof digs into the western CONUS.
For the first half of this week, temperatures will gradually warm each day as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
330 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017 Cooler and more moist conditions expected across much of the CWA today through Weds as weak impulses lift north across the area and interact with some instability and surface upslope flow. All this in association with a cut-off upper low currently just off the coast of far southern California. and Weds as the main upper low makes its closest approach.
208 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure over the MS River Valley will build southward across the Gulf Coast states through mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week. Blocking pattern will hold today with upper lows over both the St. and upper ridging over the central CONUS. in the mid 70s to lower 80s Ridging extending along the northern Gulf Coast will direct a dry west flow into the forecast area this evening, but there will be increased moisture near the north part of the area overnight and Tuesday associated with a warm front.
630 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A broad area of low pressure will continue to spin over the Northeast through the first half of the week.
326 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017 This morning W TX and SE NM are in between a departing upper ridge and an approaching strong cut off low.
Cold front has moved into central North Dakota with high pressure filling into eastern Montana behind it. Cooler weather today with clearing skies as the upper trof moves over the state. Closed low will be sliding across the southwest states over the next few days, and could push some showers as far north as southern Montana. Synoptic Setup: The long range begins with a ridge axis running up from northern california through western Montana then turning north into Alberta. Undercutting the ridge, a closed low sets over the Desert Southwest. To the west a large trough sets over the northeastern Pacific.
240 AM PDT Mon May 8 2017 Residual showers and a few thunderstorms are possible for Mono and Mineral Counties through this evening as upper low exits the region.
332 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017 A subtle quasi-stationary boundary situated from central AR through central MS will lift north today as a warm front. By peak heating, this warm front is progged to be north and east of the CWA, keeping rain chances very low in the short-term. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s across much of the Mid-South with the coolest temperatures found in the Tennessee River Valley. The upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will be the predominant weather feature through midweek.
High pressure will build from the Northwest through Tonight.
Ridging centered just west of the area will keep dry northerly flow in place today with sunny skies.
Otherwise, a few showers are possible over the high country today thanks to weak atmospheric stretching aloft between the northern and southern streams of the upper flow, where some moisture from the south will meander across the Wyoming/Montana border. So we will continue to carry some low PoP's over the higher terrain and nearby areas. High Pressure at the surface will slide into the high plains turning surface flow easterly to help keep us on the cool side of normal. We continue to carry a wide areal coverage of low PoP's over the CWA, though the best chance is still over the higher terrain and southeast zones.
553 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A broad area of low pressure will continue to spin over the Northeast through the first half of the week.
329 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure will remain in full control of the weather once again across west-central and SW Florida. H5 heights continue to rise as mid-level ridge builds over the state.
High pressure dominates the weather conditions across the region. Warm front sets up over the CWA with increasing frontogenesis as it moves into the Tug Fork Valley on the West Virginia/Kentucky border. Warm front/deformation zone persists through the front end of the extended until the central area of low pressure/trough aloft passes through the middle Ohio Valley. May not dry out over these areas until the beginning of the weekend in the wake of the low pressure system. High pressure will dominate. A warm front will approach from the southwest with mid to high clouds increasing over southwest portions of the area, affecting HTS by around 06Z Tuesday.
Turning cooler and unsettled for the latter half of the week. A few high clouds are spilling through the building ridge across NorCal, and some clouds continue across the far southeast corner of the forecast area wrapping around the low now located near northern Baja California.
High pressure will build east toward the FL panhandle with onshore winds in the evening becoming light.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The blocking mid to upper level ridge axis is over the eastern portions of Texas extending north through the Central Plains with a 500 mb low over Southern California.
Satellite also shows some cumulus clouds across the higher terrain of S Colorado. Have retained the low 15 pops across the far western zones in case this activity does drift over the state line. The lower atmosphere across the western zones is mixed, so the main threat would be 50-60 mph outflows, if a storm does drift over the area of concern. Again, there could be afternoon and evening storms along the sfc trof. On Tuesday, 500-hPa flow starts to increase ahead of a large trof out to the SW. Attention will have to be given to the warm front.
351 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017 An anomalously deep upper level low over southern California will continue moving over the area today, providing a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. GOES 16 WV imagery shows an enhanced area of convection in west central New Mexico likely associated with a subtle vort max, embedded in the deep meridional flow, around the periphery of the upper low.
A cold front will push through Thursday. Strong gradient winds will remain through much of the day today with lighter winds expected by late Thursday into Friday as high pressure develops.
Precipitation associated with the exiting upper trough has recently moved east out of the local area with cloud cover steadily diminishing. Expect lingering low cloud and fog to dissipate this morning though low-level wind fields continue to be modest between weak ridging to the east and developing low pressure to the west associated with the next wave. A weak mid- level trough moves in late in the day into this evening as a stronger wave digs into the central Plains overnight into Friday. Resultant isentropic upglide around 800 mb may give rise to isolated to scattered convection late today into tonight with an uptick in coverage expected Friday as the trough deepens.
Steep lapse rates in the lower- mid troposphere will support development of isolated to widely scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two, especially across central and south central Kansas where residual low level moisture will be greater. Any insolation whatsoever will help push temperatures into the lower to mid 60s before more showers and isolated thunderstorms pop by late morning/midday given the low static stability of the lower-mid troposphere.
High pressure will gradually build into the area this weekend.
It's certainly possible this temperature gradient will be tighter with possibly cooler readings in our northeast cwa, and warmer readings in our sw cwa. Tonight: A chance of showers continue as an upper level trough advances into the area from the west.
Really Sun-late Tue will be dry for most and while eastern US upper trough remains, sprawling SFC/LL high will take control. A few afternoon showers will sneak down across our north Tue afternoon but the big surge will come Tue night as trough axis and cold front pass. Late week looking dry behind this boundary, but again the theme stays the same, as big trough stays put across the Eastern US.
Some lingering rain/snow showers into the overnight hours are expected, especially across NE WY and the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
A cold front pushing across the area will be clearing out the MVFR CIGs that have been over the region for the past few days. South to southwesterly flow returns tomorrow ahead of another cold front that will move through the area tomorrow night. Lingering moisture behind yesterday's disturbance has left some patchy fog and low ceilings across the area overnight, but a weak cold front pushing southward will clear these conditions up through the mid morning. A return to southerly flow tomorrow will lead to temperatures climbing into the upper 80s across the area, with the possibility of getting into the low 90s possibly east of I- 45. Another cold front is expected to move through the area Friday evening and overnight Friday coming from the NW.
A weak ridge of high pres wl build briefly into the Mid-South tngt and early Fri.
Temperatures today will be on average about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday's highs.
Temperatures yesterday topped out mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s but it was a bit cooler along the KS border where there was more widespread precipitation. Water vapor imagery shows northwest mid level flow in place across the local area, with several fairly weak disturbances embedded in stronger flow from off the Pacific Northwest coast into the High Plains. Fog and low clouds should break up this morning as the low level flow tends to become more westerly.
The cooler air behind the front early Friday will cause highs to be closer to the late April norms in the mid 60s.
A stacked low pressure system is expected to be near the Missouri/Arkansas border by 12z this morning. Rain showers are driven today by isentropic lift over the warm front that runs west to east across central Kentucky. During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front extending south of the center of the system will pass west to east through central Kentucky. A broad upper level trof over the eastern U.
Dew points are warmer today than previous days, with values in the upper 30s through the 40s. With the weak wave and low pressure moving through, expect winds to be light and somewhat variable through the day, with some breezier winds possible with showers and isolated storms.
A cold front will be passing through the region Friday with breezy northwest winds gradually turning north then northeast during the afternoon and evening. Cooler air will spill in behind the front, with highs expected to range from low 70s north to low 80s south.
It is unclear whether the low clouds to the east will lift and scatter out this afternoon, but odds are they won't. This will keep highs down several degrees in the 50s while areas to the west where at a minimum some breaks are expected will reach the low to mid 60s. The best chance for rain will come tonight and Friday as low pressure tracks eastward into southwestern MN or northwestern IA. A relatively small area of widespread rain will occur to the north of the low.