Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strengthening upper level ridging will extend well north to the Canadian border for the forecast period. Trough will move into the western states for the start of the work week with a series of waves trying to break down the ridge. For most of the week this will likely be a futile attempt, but eventually as the weekend approaches ridge may give enough for some chances for showers and storms to enter the area.
A large area of high pressure at the surface was centered over the region today, making for a rather nice day out there as dew points have dropped into the 50s, which was a welcome relief from the humidity. On Sunday, we will remain under the influence of high pressure, so dry conditions will continue.
Westerly flow behind the trough early this evening becoming light southerly tonight. Surface flow will remain southerly on Sunday with upper level ridging building over the forecast area. Tonight and Sunday, a broad upper ridge is forecast to build over the eastern Rockies and western Plains ahead of an upper low/trough moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
1045 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight. High pressure will build in and usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.
No changes were needed for the late eve update as cold front has completed passage across the area. Dry advection with building high pressure will result in a clearing sky with light wind and areas of valley fog.
950 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the region. Temperatures are in the low 70s to mid 80s. The forecast is on track for dry weather continuing as the ridge over the area remains in place. Lows will drop down into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s. The cold front which moved through the region last night and this morning is now moving into central Mississippi. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight and will remain over the Mid-South for the next several days.
622 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over southern Illinois will drift to the east overnight, as a weak front moves in toward the area. High pressure drifting east over southern IL to IN.
Strong Northeast flow conditions on track as NE FL/SE GA remains in the tight pressure gradient between High pressure over the Carolinas and TS Humberto well east of the FL coastline. Mild overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the coast in the onshore flow.
336 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A flat ridge embedded in the westerly flow aloft over the Central Rockies will shift east of the area by Sunday. The warming trend will continue with warmer lows for tonight. Highs on Sunday should be another 2-6F warmer resulting in highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wet weather will return to Northwest California tomorrow as a low pressure system impacts the West Coast. Cooler inland temperatures and periods of rain will linger through the middle of the upcoming week. A pattern change will commence tomorrow across the area as an upper-level trough and associated cold front bring cooler and wetter weather to Northwest California.
The approaching trough still looks to tighten the pressure gradient across much of the forecast area on Sunday, with gusty to breezy wind possible.
and seaboard along with upper level ridging, will keep significant convection to a minimum. Forecast high temperatures are running about 5 to 12 degrees above normal across the area today and a degree or two warmer on Monday. Upper level ridging will dominate, keeping a dry forecast.
Closer to home, upper ridge development is ongoing across the lower and mid ms valleys. In the lower levels, higher pressure is expected to dominate over the next several days.
/issued 341 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) The next 24 hours will be very similar to the last 24 hours - dry, with temperatures slightly warmer than usual for mid September.
139 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The latest surface analysis has a lee trough/weak warm front over eastern WY. Water vapor images and the RAP analysis showed a dirty, low-amplitude ridge over the northern Rockies. Today through Monday night, upper ridge builds over the MO River Valley in response to deepening upper trough over the West Coast. Strong thermal ridge builds over the CWA bringing high temperatures around 10F above average.
237 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Arklatex region will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. Expect highs this afternoon in the low to mid 90s.
155 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight. High pressure will build in and usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal. A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing little more than low chance PoPs. After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of the week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week. A cold front with meager moisture will cross the area on Monday, and will make additional iso/sct SHRA, but mostly over the nrn terminals.
It's hard to pinpoint the location of the cold front because it is so weak.
1257 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A cold front over the area this evening will continue to the southeast to be on the East coast Sunday morning. Main concerns in the short term are focused on the chance for rain showers dropping north to south across the region on Monday along a weak cold front. Upper level short wave and associated surface cold front will move S/SE from the eastern Great Lakes into the nrn Mid Atlantic region on Monday. Large area of high pressure at the surface and heights rising aloft across the Great Lakes will bring in mostly sunny skies, quiet weather and gradually warming temperatures.
The low level jet responsible for the precipitation does pull east of the CWA this morning. At the same time the surface wave and 850/700 mb trough tracks through.
The only interruption will come on Monday as a weak cold front will bring the risk for a shower.
A weakening cold front dropping down across the Great Lakes could lead to a few light showers later Sunday night into Monday morning. Meanwhile, a moderating airmass on Sunday will help highs push into the low to mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s. Expect mainly dry weather and very warm temperatures through the period as the upper ridge remains nearly stationary in this slow to evolve pattern. For Monday, a few thunderstorms may result from a small packet of short wave energy rounding the upper ridge.
/SVH 00Z TAFS: A low pressure trough will dig off of western Washington. There is a good tap of moisture in the warm sector with the cold front just making its way into Vancouver Island. The moisture tap will become more meridional with time as the trough digs.
1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over southern Illinois will drift to the east overnight, as a weak front moves in toward the area. Models have not been handling this cluster well, however there is some suggesting this cluster will weaken while additional storms form behind it ahead of an approaching cold front and upper wave. High pressure drifting east over southern IL to IN. By Monday, ridge aloft to be building in and a warm and dry forecast will be the main theme through the week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Sunday morning, with the highest chances at KPIA and KBMI from 10Z-16Z, and lower chances for showers at KSPI, KDEC, and KCMI.
Despite the low signal from short term models, IR satellite imagery is depicting cooling cloud tops from Jackson through Morris counties. Isolated showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop through sunrise before dissipating as the low level jet weakens. Storms are not expected to be severe with much of the speed shear associated with the LLJ in the lower levels.
The big difference is the wave has effectively sneaked in ahead of the impending ridge amplification. The low level theta e plume will then remain in place tonight. Strong upper level ridging and persistent stability over the region will support dry and increasingly summerlike weather right through the middle to end of the week. Light to moderate flow out of the easterly quandrant will back to northeasterly late tonight into Monday as low pressure shifts to the east.
Aloft, a mid to upper level low over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico is providing enhanced showers and thunderstorms along the northern Gulf extending to the 20-60 nautical mile marine zones as noted by coastal radar. With the westward trajectory of the mid to upper low, and the mid to upper level high to our north, expecting the best chances of showers and thunderstorms to remain over the coastal waters today, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms surging a bit northward to the coast and lower Acadiana this afternoon. As the mid to upper low moves further west Monday, precipitation chances will increase across SE TX/S LA as the low level flow becomes more southeasterly and brings increased moisture and lift.
235 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A weak cold front will stall over central North Carolina this afternoon, then dissipate tonight.
Patchy river valley fog may develop, but very dry air in the low levels should prevent widespread fog from developing despite the clear skies and light winds. Tomorrow, the summer-like temperatures return as upper level ridging nudges in from the south and surface winds veer to the south and southwest. Updated at 228 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A weak cold front will begin approaching the region from the north Monday afternoon.
With dewpoints presently falling into the low to mid 50s across the area, fog will be fairly limited tonight, mainly to the more sheltered valley locations. Lows Sunday night will again fall into the 50s in the valleys with ridge locations holding near 60. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to around 90 each day, with lows in the low 60s (and possibly some upper 50s in the deepest NE valleys). High pressure moving across the Ohio Valley and to the mid Atlantic states during the period will dominate.
338 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Plains Today with southerly winds combined with warm and humid conditions common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A non-zero potential of a diurnal isolated shower/storm could also be possible again this afternoon within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma.
Predominant weather feature continues (and will continue) to be the upper ridge centered over the southern united States.
/issued 950 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ High pressure continues to dominate the region. Temperatures are in the low 70s to mid 80s. The forecast is on track for dry weather continuing as the ridge over the area remains in place. Lows will drop down into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s. The cold front which moved through the region last night and this morning is now moving into central Mississippi. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight and will remain over the Mid-South for the next several days.
254 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A few storms were able to bubble up overnight across residual boundaries, as the low level jet promoted lift across the region. High pressure will build in at the surface behind the departing showers and storms today, as a ridge begins to build over the region aloft. The ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through the majority of the day, Monday, maintaining dry conditions, before shifting off to our east Monday evening and overnight. A weak disturbance will ripple through the southwesterly upper level flow Monday night, brining a small chance for a few showers and storms to the region as the low level jet intensifies Monday night.
Ridge aloft builds over the central Plains as an upper-level wave moves into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will result in another quiet but warmer and humid day. The workweek starts off with well-above normal temperatures as the upper level ridge axis/southwest flow aloft dominates the region. This will result in even warmer weather compared to Sunday.
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ High pressure has settled over the region and VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports for this TAF period. Weak ridging will be the main influence for this weekend with warm temperatures and dry weather expected through Sunday night.
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Upper level ridging aloft will nudge north across the area from the Southern Plains tonight into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen Sunday along the lee of the Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient across the area. This is in response to a series of upper troughs that will be moving onto the west coast and then move northeast across the northern Rockies into the far Northern Plains.
A cold front will move across Nevada on Monday bringing stronger winds to most of the Great Basin. Cooler after the cold front with some valley rains and mountain snows developing Monday and Monday night.
Afternoon high temperatures will swell once again into the low to mid 90s for much of the CWA due to the stronger downsloping winds out of the south to southwest.
/Today through Monday/ Upper ridge remains centered over nrn portions of cwa and expect another carbon copy to exist today with aftn highs in upper 90's to around 100 degrees and heat index readings 100 to 105 degrees.
128 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The 05Z surface chart shows high pressure centered over southwest OH. For today, the elongated west-east ridge at 5h from OK through the lower Appalachians will begin to amplify through the lower MO and AR river valleys. Expect even hotter temps on Monday afternoon given the lower dew points.
WV imagery shows the upper- lvl ridge that has covered the srn CONUS the past couple of days has shifted east, courtesy of a trough over AZ/NM, which has resulted in widespread convection there. This was an inverted trough 24 hrs ago, but is forecast to get absorbed in SW flow aloft later today and eject NE. Farther north, a closed upper trough off the coast of B. A stronger, secondary trough will follow the first, making landfall in WA/OR by 18Z Wed.
With Tropical Storm Humberto several hundred miles to our southeast and a ridge centered near Memphis, another hot and largely rain-free day is expected.
1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s across the area this afternoon. An upper level ridge will build over the region by Sunday afternoon and remain across the area through the middle of the week.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching upper low is bringing mid and high level clouds to Washington and northern Oregon. The cold front will become a little more north south oriented on Sunday as it slowly moves into the Pacific northwest. The upper low will result in much cooler temperatures Monday. Cold front will move slowly across the region Sunday afternoon and evening with lowering ceilings and rain. An upper low off the British Columbia Coast will gradually move southward and cause the deepening of an upper trough off the coast. This trough will then slowly move through the Pacific northwest through Monday night bringing a cold front with it. There could even be a chance of a thunderstorm on Monday, especially south and east on Monday as the low passes through, with instability aloft.
The flow is being dictated by upper ridging northwest of the area, an upper trough over the gulf, and the flow around Tropical Storm Humberto well to the east of the area. There is a low end chance of an isolated shower or storm along the coast and across portions of the southeast big bend where moisture is slightly higher, but otherwise it will remain dry with above average high temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Water vapour matinee showed ridge building over the Rockies. Tonight through Monday night, upper ridge builds over the MO River valley in response to deepening upper trough over the west coast. Perky thermal ridge builds into the CWA bringing summer high temperatures as readings peak at 10F above normal.
Overall pattern at 500 mb has a rather large ridge over the southern Rockies with weak troughs off the west coast and over the Great Lakes.
250 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A weak cold front will stall over central North Carolina this afternoon, then dissipate tonight.
At the surface, a ridge axis will continue to slide south across southeastern Missouri and northern Arkansas. We are looking for a dry and mostly sunny day across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with southwest surface winds prevailing to the north of that ridge axis. We may still see some middle 60s in the cooler valleys across the eastern Ozarks. Upper level high pressure will remain in control of the weather through midweek.
Tonight/Sunday, things change as winds aloft switch to the southwest ahead of an approaching large-scale trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. Additionally, a weaker low pressure system, currently over eastern Arizona, moves north dragging moisture along as it gets absorbed and carried northeast by the jet stream. The best chances for afternoon showers and storms on Sunday exists over the high terrain near the San Juans. The west coast trough enters the Great Basin Monday night and this is where model solutions begin to differ a bit. The GFS progresses the trough axis ahead of the ECMWF by about 12 hours.
220 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 High pressure for today.
257 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The heat will be back on across the region the next two days before a cold front slams the door on the warmth by midweek.
The short term progs remain in good agreement with this cu exiting the Wrn sections of E TX by or shortly after 06Z, with a mostly clear sky expected overnight as the upper level ridge remains firmly anchored from the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX E across AR into the TN valley. Meanwhile, sfc ridging will also remain anchored from the OH valley SW into N TX overnight through Sunday, with the ridging aloft expected to amplify N across the Plains and MS Valley Sunday.
High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee this evening. The atmosphere across the mid state is unusually dry, with dew points having dropped and cooler temperatures tonight as a result.
1131 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Tonight: A few of the high resolution models generate a couple of storms in central KS this evening.
Strengthening upper level ridging will extend well north to the Canadian border for the forecast period. Trough will move into the western states for the start of the work week with a series of waves trying to break down the ridge. For most of the week this will likely be a futile attempt, but eventually as the weekend approaches ridge may give enough for some chances for showers and storms to enter the area. Low level jet in association with sw disturbance shifting through the nrn lakes aiding and abetting convection from cntrl/ne IA ewd through ne IL along and within robust low level theta-e ridge. Otherwise clearing/destabilization in wake of this activity will likely yield renewed convection this evening invof KFWA where theta- e ridge overlaps tail end of advancing low level jet.
135 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A weak cold front will stall over central North Carolina this afternoon, then dissipate tonight.
Otherwise, sunny skies will be prevalent on Sunday as well with even warmer temperatures. The lower elevations of far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska will see afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s under southwest flow aloft.
This results from a developing ridge aloft which will help keep conditions dry today through tonight. Ridging aloft continues through Monday.
Satellite imagery shows upper low deepening off PacNW coast with upper flow turning more southerly across Idaho. First pulls north through Utah, the second closer to the low mainly over the western portions of the state. Jet dynamics/frontal boundary associated with the low favor increasing precipitation coverage overnight.
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 A weak cold front will stall over central North Carolina this afternoon, then dissipate tonight.
703 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 High pressure in control today.
High pressure will move east of the Divide today, placing central Idaho and western Montana under warm southwesterly flow. Monday will also be a warm and dry day, but temperatures will run a few degrees cooler across the region. A well defined cold front will slowly work its way across the Northern Rockies late Monday night.
/issued 433 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/ Mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the central United States for the next few days, and with that, the warmer than average temperatures will persist. Somewhat of a wild card is the area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico that may bring some precipitation chances into Texas early this week, but current indications are that these showers will likely remain south of our forecast area. Later this week as the large-scale trough in the west weakens and lifts into the northern Plains, a cold front will start to slowly move south through the Plains. There is also some signal that the some southwesterly flow aloft may nudge closer to the area as the ridge axis shifts slightly eastward.
630 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 High pressure will build into the region and usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal. A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing little more than low chance PoPs. After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of the week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week. A cold front with meager moisture will cross the area on Monday, and will make additional iso/sct SHRA, but mostly over the nrn terminals.
While high pressure continues to prevail across the southeastern states, an UL low across southern AZ and the effects of a storm system coming ashore the PacNW will help to initiate changes to our weather. This system will eject northeastward into an open trough across Colorado on Monday while the high pressure center remains centered around AR and surrounding states.
The upper ridge currently located over the ArkLaTex region will continue amplifying throughout the day, advecting lower dew points into southern Tennessee and northern Alabama. Expect even hotter temps on Monday afternoon given the lower dew points.
In addition, dewpoints in the lower 70s will allow heat indices to climb into the mid 90s both days.
433 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the central United States for the next few days, and with that, the warmer than average temperatures will persist. Somewhat of a wild card is the area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico that may bring some precipitation chances into Texas early this week, but current indications are that these showers will likely remain south of our forecast area. Later this week as the large-scale trough in the west weakens and lifts into the northern Plains, a cold front will start to slowly move south through the Plains. There is also some signal that the some southwesterly flow aloft may nudge closer to the area as the ridge axis shifts slightly eastward.
Today will be the last hot day as upper flow backs to southwesterly ahead of an incoming Pacific trough. Strong cold front will pass through eastern Oregon Monday morning, reach the OR/ID border midday, and move across western Idaho Monday afternoon.
Currently, skies are clear, and temperatures range from the mid 50s to the low 60s across the CWA on light and variable winds. Temperature guidance is in the right ballpark for today/Monday, supporting high temperatures in the 80s, and for some areas across the Missouri River valley into the low 90s on Monday.