Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS COLD ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700MB WHERE TEMPS DIPPED TO AROUND -20C. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE MAIN AREA WILL BECOME DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DISPLACE THE REFORMING POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA KEEPING THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
Ridge of high pressure begins to build over the area today and will remain in control through the weekend.
THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ THE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ANCHORED OVER WCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. WITH NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE DRY ADVECTION SPILLING SE INTO THE AREA. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH BANDS OF AC NOTED OVER NW TX BENEATH THE APEX OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PRESENT BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BEING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HELPING TO REENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL USHER IN A CHILLY AIRMASS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL MS. THE DEPARTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT ON FRIDAY.
310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after sunset. Further east there is a lack of moisture in the low levels closer to the high pressure.
High pressure at the surface will bring VFR conditions thru the TAF period to all sites. /ISSUED 259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south and a weak upper wave passes to the north. winds will pick up some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
1152 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
202 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
South to southwest wind generally 10 KTS or less will become south with gusts up to 25 KTS at KSJT, KABI and KSOA mid morning Friday as a lee trough develops. Temperatures will start off cold today, with pre-sunrise readings in the lower and middle 20s across much of the area.
WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SHARPER NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. AND AHEAD OF BROAD RIDGING IN THE WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE N/NE. KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS. SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE GET STARTED ON A MODEST WARMING TREND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
406 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH.
A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night presenting a chance for a few sprinkles or flurries.
326 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
250 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL SEEING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROUGH TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. BEFORE THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TO MID CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN OUR WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE WAVE. WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WEST. WITH EASTERN AREAS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK AS BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WAS CAUSING SOME SLIPPERY SURFACES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICE AT 230 AM. GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY MIDATL/GOMEX RIDGE. HOWEVER TRANSITION TO SIG COLDER TEMPS DYS5-8 AS PRESENT STRONG EPAC SYSTEM OBLITERATES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND PHASES WITH POLAR VORTEX BY TUE. MVFR STRATOCU DECK AND SCT FLURRIES WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
1120 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 3OS TO LOWER 40S ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO! VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HOWEVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CAA TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER. BUT A LARGE SWATH OF SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. AND LIKELY THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
THE SEMI-BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT STILL PUSHES THE POTENT UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE 570+ RANGE. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FORCED LINE AND MAY APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO WEST-CENTRAL OREGON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
303 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015 INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP. NEXT SYSTEM WL NOT IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY SO WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING ANY POPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO UTAH DURING THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. FROM THE LOW IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE AIR LIFTING OVER THE WARM FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR AS FRONTIER.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AND DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA VERY EARLY MONDAY.
A GUSTY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER. BUT A LARGE SWATH OF SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. AND LIKELY THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
WE WILL ALSO SEE A WARM FRONT BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US-26 AND ID-24. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF AUSTIN TO LAREDO WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE PACIFIC NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT MEANS NOT MUCH COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRP TO BKS TO NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF AUSTIN TO LAREDO WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE PACIFIC NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT MEANS NOT MUCH COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WA TO AROUND MEDFORD EARLY THIS AM AND WILL SHIFT THROUGH SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MT.
930 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER LIFTS NORTH AND WEST. A MORE CONTINUOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRIMARY 500 HPA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT (AROUND 1. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES.
643 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AND DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA VERY EARLY MONDAY.
A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND PIVOT INLAND TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER OUR EASTERN FL ZONES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABOVE YESTERDAY IN THE MID 70S WHILE FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDED A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
412 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NM TO CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
634 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 333 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THIS LOW, AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL EFFECT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, FIRST BY CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA, CAUSING THE WIND TO INCREASE. IT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
Late tonight, a cold front will approach from the west with MVFR ceilings expected to overspread the area towards dawn on Monday. Southeasterly flow will increase some today in advance of an approaching cold front with breezy conditions at times this afternoon.
MANY QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OF COURSE HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON SNOW AMOUNTS NOT ONLY OVER THE CWA BUT ACROSS THE REGION. WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW SLOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM YESTERDAYS SYSTEM IS MOVING. EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING/SLOWING THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER COLORADO WHERE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRACK. SPEED AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE A CRUCIAL FACTOR.
STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING US ANOTHER UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER DAY. A COLD FRONT SPIRALING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. VALLEYS HAVE BEEN DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW AND COOLING DOWN MUCH MORE THAN RIDGES ON RECENT NIGHTS. UPPER LEVEL WISE ACROSS THE CONUS THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS BOTH THE GREAT LAKES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SQUEEZED IN THE MIDDLE.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW MEXICO. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CLOUDIER CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITHIN THE FOG. WINDS FROM SURFACE INTO THE DRY LAYER ARE VERY LIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT MUCH SHEAR TO WORK WITH FOR FORMING FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS TO GRIDS FOR NOW. WEST COAST TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NV/UT BY 18Z MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW.
THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES SOUTH OF A WESTERN-NORTH-ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE TRAVERSING THE SERVICE AREA RIGHT NOW. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO ALLOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL DISINTEGRATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 57 68 45 / 10 80 80 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 57 68 44 / 0 50 100 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 57 68 45 / 0 60 100 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 52 68 43 / 0 20 80 10 TN.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS DO CLEAR OUT THE LOW DECK BY AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL TURN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ABOVE 3500-4000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND WRN IDAHO WHERE HEAVY SNOW FELL DURING THE NIGHT WHEN THE STORM/S WARM FRONT WENT THROUGH. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 4500-5000 FEET TODAY BEFORE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN OREGON AND THIS EVENING IN IDAHO. PROBLEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WHICH MAY ACCUMULATE TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WA TO AROUND MEDFORD EARLY THIS AM AND WILL SHIFT THROUGH SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY DIMINISH. /ISSUED 412 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NM TO CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
Skies will become partly cloudy this afternoon with cooler temperatures in store.
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ Strong forcing associated with upper low near the TX Panhandle region this morning resulting in widespread showers over much of the area. Cold front is currently near or a little west of I-35 and is slowly moving east. As the upper low lifts northeast tonight the center will pass close to northeast OK. Some showers will linger through the evening as the low passes by, and a clap or two of thunder cannot be ruled out with steeper mid level lapse rates present.
815 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
951 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME AS A DEEP MOIST PLUME (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. SNOW LEVELS ROSE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS UP TO ABOUT 5500 FEET, BUT THESE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, HOWEVER, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS ALREADY ON THE LOW SIDE, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
526 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE LINGERING IN THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
105 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
Another potential impact overnight will be the refreezing of wet roads as temperatures drop off during the evening hours.
Surface cold front had made it completly through the CWA ending precipitation chances. With the cloud cover, temps will only fall into the low 30s.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY AN EQUALLY WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE ONLY THING WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS TROUGH IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD OF THIS LOW EXTENDED SSW ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA EAST OF LAKE CHARLES. A SHORT PERIOD OF SOLAR INSOLATION MOST OF THE AREA HAD EARLIER EXPERIENCED TODAY HAS HELPED WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHICH WILL FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED TODAY THUS FAR. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
In a nutshell, pre-frontal trof of low pressure will cross eastern portions of the forecast region early tonight. Bigger concern for severe/tornado threat may be from near the MS River east into the Purchase area of wrn KY and far southern IL between now and 7 PM along the pre-frontal trof where impressive instability for this time of year has developed, thermal cap has broken, and shear values continue off the charts. convection will end with the passage of the sfc trof, and dry slot will move into the region. Stronger cold front still slated to come through most areas on Wed.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR DAMMING-TYPE SETUP WILL DELAY THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS SLAMS INTO THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT.
1210 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO THE CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE DEVELOPING NWD ALONG THE MO RIVER INTO E-CNTRL NEB AND W-CNTRL IA. WINDS SHOULD THEN RE-INTENSIFY BY EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IN VICINITY OF KCNK AT 18Z WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO CATCH UP WITH DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS SE ARIZONA WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. STAYING CHILLY TOMORROW UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
A MINOR WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY BRING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED.
WITH THE HIGH FOR TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
228 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
Expect west to northwest winds this evening at less than 12 kts, shifting from the north during the late evening and early morning hours as a secondary cold front moves south. Expect a wind shift to the north tonight as a cold front moves through, with wind speeds generally 10 knots or less. /issued 425 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Another breezy day is in store for West Central Texas today, along with cooler temperatures.
WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTING OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.