Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SLOWLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. WAA/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE ON SATURDAY AS WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH WELL TO THE EAST RAISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA.
340 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN WYOMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE TROUGH REALLY GETS MESSY SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT ENTERS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY BEYOND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN COLORADO.
Short range models indicate an amplified upper level ridge of high pressure breaking down as it moves eastward across the Western High Plains tonight, and further east into the Central Plains Saturday. Considering a weak flow aloft and a lack of low/mid level moisture across the high plains, dry conditions can be expected through late Saturday afternoon. This will draw warmer air northward into western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures well above 5C across the region. Depending on how long low level stratus persists across central Kansas, highs may struggle to reach the lower 40s(F) near the I-70 corridor.
1115 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. GENERAL WK LL THERMAL TROUGH ACRS WRN LK ERIE WITHIN MARGINAL INVERSION HGTS ARGUE AGAINST FLURRIES DVLPG ACRS NW OH/NE THIS PD AND WILL HOLD W/PREDECESSORS OPINION. ROBUST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MIGHT NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 15Z. FLURRIES WERE STILL AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL THANKS TO AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI. THE TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ENDING THE FLURRIES. A TROUGH WILL PASS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE BORDERLAND ZONES SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITH SFC/850HPA REFLECTION CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO NW MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
120 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 UPPER LOW WAS VISIBLE ON RADAR LIFTING NE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN TN WITH AN ATTENDANT DRY SLOT WHICH HAS SHIFTED HEAVY RAIN EAST OF OUR AREA.
354 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR DOWNTREND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE VALLEY OVERCOMES THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
305 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
1132 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO ARKANSAS HAS MOVED INTO GEORGIA AT THIS TIME.
137 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR. THIS MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL SATURATE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE. TONIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
315 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 STRATUS ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR IS SLOWLY INCHING WESTWARD IN DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST. BUT WITH 925 HPA TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GIVE A DRY NIGHT.
Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 20s across much of west central Texas, with the colder readings in the river valleys and low-lying areas. Highs are expected to range from the mid to upper 50s in our far eastern counties, to the lower 60s across the Concho Valley.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN WYOMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MO8TNAINS AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE TROUGH REALLY GETS MESSY SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT ENTERS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY BEYOND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN COLORADO.
OTHERWISE HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY. THE EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATOCU FIELD OVER OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX IS BEING MAINTAINED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE BACK EDGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE ITS TIME RECEDING EASTWARD AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. OUR WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING INTENSIFIES AND SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS, WITH JUST A COATING, TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO, IN THE VALLEY CITIES THEMSELVES. IN THE MEANTIME, UP OVER CENTRAL NY, NO SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC, KEEPING THINGS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE STATES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.
Have therefore leaned on some of the cooler guidance numbers keeping highs in the low to mid 30s.
253 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AIRMASS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS MAY TOP 60 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH STEADY WARMING ALOFT. BUT WILL STILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PLAINS AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER. AND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MORE STAGNANT AREAS. WARMER AREAS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THEN START TO BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DESPITE THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS.
1024 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE AREA AND TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT TODAY BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTING THE CLOUD COVER TO HOLD STEADY.
In the wake of this system, high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft should keep the region and cold through the period.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD.
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
deep upper closed low now working through the Tennessee Valley with conditions rapidly deteriorating across the Mid-Atlantic. longwave ridging beginning to work east of the Rockies this afternoon.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD IN ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY.
1235 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
211 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAYBE ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH WITH THIS LAST WAVE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65 (THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO).
1044 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH STEADY WARMING ALOFT. BUT WILL STILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PLAINS AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER. AND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MORE STAGNANT AREAS. WARMER AREAS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AM EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE FA.
Warm air advection with 925mb winds increasing from the southwest to around 25mph should still bring highs into the lower and middle 30s. Some of the models are hinting at another night of low stratus and or freezing fog. This may inhibit the cooling during the late evening, but since highs are only in the lower to mid 30s tomorrow most locations should reach at or below freezing overnight.
321 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING WHERE THE SNOW MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT. THE HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE WIND GUSTS.
THIS SHOULD HOLD WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT NOON EVEN IN NW ALABAMA.
235 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE IS MANIFESTED LOCALLY AS DRY EASTERLY FLOW SO FAR TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHEAST FETCH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR REVEALS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
1229 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA INTO TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. GENERAL WK LL THERMAL TROUGH ACRS WRN LK ERIE WITHIN MARGINAL INVERSION HGTS ARGUE AGAINST FLURRIES DVLPG ACRS NW OH/NE THIS PD AND WILL HOLD W/PREDECESSORS OPINION. ROBUST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
311 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 Main forecast challenge for tonight will be the low cloud deck lurking to the northwest of the Tulsa area and potential impact on low temps. A warming trend will take place over the weekend as upper ridging shifts east across the southern plains and winds pick up out of the south.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ENVELOP THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ON FRIDAY A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS AND ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
812 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE. TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SKEW NORTHWARD WHICH WOULD PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH. AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
904 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING ALONG THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL TODAY ESPECIALLY IN MONO COUNTY CLOSER TO UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 259 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/ SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER OVER THE REGION WILL SEE A RELAXING OF THE PERSISTENT WIND WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST BENIGN AND PERSISTENT.
HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A PASSING. THE 00 UTC SET OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DIDN/T SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 700 J/KG AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO 1500 J/KG OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE LOW RISK OF TRUE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE ITS ROOTS IN VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR CHARACTERIZED BY 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT.
747 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN CANADA BY 84 HOURS. ALSO PIECES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM WRN KY TO SRN OH IS SE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 66 86 67 / 10 20 40 30.
MEANWHILE THE EVENING UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH TAILS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER. MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AZ WHICH COULD INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING A BIT.
WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW WITH SERIES OF MID AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CONUS. MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE SMOKEY MOUNTAINS. A MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMBLE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. MID AND UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA ITS IS NOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD LOWER PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH. MOST OF THIS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND WELL BELOW THE MEDIAN 1.
Mid-level ridge is centered directly over the region this morning, as evidenced by very light winds at 500mb on the 12Z KTAE sounding. Ridge and slight drying should limit afternoon coverage a bit.
CENTRL AND SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.
646 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO CA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW. WEAK RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SERN AZ INTO SERN UT. WHILE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF THE SERN COAST OF THE US WITH A BROAD WSW TO ENE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30+ KTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IF NOT LONGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH EXPANDS WEST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
811 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE. TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SKEW NORTHWARD WHICH WOULD PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH. AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
WITH 30 PERCENT CONFINED TO THE LOWER ACADIANA AREA. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LVL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF MOVES INTO MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW/TUTT LOW MOVES INTO MEXICO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LOCALLY.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/ UPPER HIGH OVER THE EAST PAC NEAR THE BAHA AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND CENTER ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. SINCE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WITH BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE NORTH GULF AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ALOFT.
1011 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT IS DRIFTING EAST. CELLS WERE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND 10 MPH DUE TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. LATE TONIGHT THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT TO OVER NV THEN BY FRIDAY EVENING BE NEAR THE N NV BORDER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WIDESPREAD ASCENT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. TOMORROW THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS NV.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETROGRADING AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TRANSITION WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ITS LEAD WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SUBSTANTIAL ONES PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION.
945 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 DRIER WARMER CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH ISOLATED POPS WITH THE TUTT OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE ATLANTIC YESTERDAY HAS MOVED FURTHER WEST AND IS NOW OVER THE SC/GA COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA LEAVING US WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER ALABAMA FRI/SAT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 97 DEGREES FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS.
922 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TODAY. AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NW CAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOW SLIPPING TO THE ENE, THERE WILL BE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY DUE TO NE STEERING FLOW. AS THIS LOW FILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE DYNAMICS NEEDED TO GENERATE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE SE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD WITH WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL IN THE LOW 90S. JMS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HAVE EVEN LOWERED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD DRIER. COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LOW MOVING ON SHORE NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL HELP ENHANCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO COUNTY TODAY. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG WITH HAIL SINCE THE 0/-20 DEG C LEVELS ARE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE SE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD WITH WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL IN THE LOW 90S. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH A DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. A SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE BATTLE WILL BE ON BETWEEN DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE MONSOON HIGH.