Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
835 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 Temperatures have risen to near/above freezing across Central Oregon. Upper level low pressure continues to pinwheel across ID/western MT this morning. with some clouds across mainly Wallowa County closest to the low. With the low departing. expect high temperatures today 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. with mid 70s to around 80 for the lower elevations and 60s to around 70 for the mtns.
624 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 The short term begins with high pressure sitting over the forecast area building from the north. However, severe weather looks very limited at best due to lack of forcing, poor midlevel lapse rates, and a capping inversion in the lower levels. Currently, forecast highs are only going to reach the lower to mid 60s across the local area.
1202 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A cold front will cross the area today then move east tonight.
1115 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper ridging across the region will keep us hot and mostly dry once again today with only minimal rain chances expected.
1106 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A cold front will cross the region today, bringing the chance of rain back into the forecast. This portion of the forecast should be dry with high pressure across the region.
08Z water vapor shows a closed upper low over the inter-mountain west. At the surface, the cold front has not made much progress even though winds have a northerly component across the forecast area. So the expectation is for the frontal boundary to kind of wash out over the forecast area as low level return flow develops this evening in response to the upper closed low moving into the northern Rockies. So the forecast has this morning's convection falling apart later this morning as the low level jet diminishes. The higher probs will be near the NEB state line closer to where models prog the weak PVA. Models suggest the low clouds are liekly to hold fast through much of the day. A cold front will extend from the Dakotas into northwestern Kansas Thursday afternoon and push eastward through the afternoon and evening.
1132 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge off the east coast and some troughing lingering near the southeast coast.
A dryline bulge is forecast to push into southern Hayes and Frontier County by early evening with a warm front just to the north. Storms should become more numerous as a low level jet develops across our southeastern and eastern zones, and a cold front across the northwest pushes southeast overnight. The higher chances for showers and storms overnight will be east of a line from Broken Bow, Thedford and Ainsworth. Highs Saturday will be cooler behind the Pacific cold front from the mid 60s northwest to around 70 southeast.
744 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Quiet weather tonight into the first half of Saturday when high pressure will shift east of New England allowing a frontal system to approach from the southwest.
727 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will push north into the Great Lakes tonight.
709 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure off of the eastern seaboard will maintain fair and dry conditions into Friday.
As mid level ridge axis slips more eastward over the southeast US, the axis of an upper level trof from east TX in the western Gulf becomes positioned from the Lower MS River Valley to the central Gulf by Saturday. For tonight, the ridge aloft looks to remain intact enough to keep the weather pattern quiet. As the eastern flank of the high level trof axis approaches the western zones Saturday, combined with a better recovery in deep layer moisture there, could very well see some isolated showers and storms popping up during the afternoon when slightly better instability is realized. Highs on Saturday in the lower to mid 80s interior to upper half of the 70s beaches.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/ Wv imagery shows weak disturbance over the lower MS River Valley somewhat cut-off from the main jet, which has displaced itself nwd over the OH River Valley due to upper ridge over the SE CONUS.
A cold front will be moving through the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. However a weak cold front/surface boundary is progged to sag into the northern or central zones before stalling out and this along with the attendant dryline south of the front and perhaps weak upper support within modest west-southwest flow aloft should spur scattered storm development during the afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated strong to severe storms may develop along the lee trough axis over the High Plains by early this evening, if sufficient low-level convergence occurs, interacting with a strongly unstable environment. Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon- night, as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the northwest.
During the day on Saturday this dry line will surge east across western Kansas as a cold front drops south and begins to overtake this surface boundary. Models still differing some on the location of these surface boundaries late Saturday but all in generally in good agreement in placing the cold front in south central Kansas and the cold front/dry line intersection near of just south of the Oklahoma border.
743 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure off of the eastern seaboard will maintain fair and dry conditions into Friday.
Increased surface winds will continue overnight as leeside low pressure develops ahead of the next storm system. This strengthening southwesterly low level flow will advect additional moisture into the region out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing dew point values into the low 60s by Saturday afternoon.
Mid- and upper- level ridging will continue their presence across our region, in tandem with surface ridging extending from the eastern seaboard. The upper level ridge and high pressure shifts off to our east on Saturday. 1000-850mb thickness values will still support highs in the low 80s. NAEFs is continuing to show anomalously high geopotential heights, so will edge the forecast on the warmer side of guidance once again, but don't think it will be quite as warm Saturday as yesterday or today.
Strong southerly winds will slowly diminish late this afternoon and early this evening, out ahead of the nearing cold front. Continue to monitor the slow moving cold front that is still showing up well on the BIS and FSD radars. Will look westward for additional development after 22Z out ahead and and near the cold front. Expect the cold front to shift just east of a line from ABR to 9V9 by 06Z, with the threat of spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering east overnight. Will keep temps a couple of degrees warmer over our southeastern zones because of the slow cold front passage. We will start the period with a low to the north and a 100kt jet max aloft, while at the surface we will be in a post frontal environment with high pressure extending out of the Rockies.
The cooler mid levels should help diminish the cap, but it should still remain in sufficient tact over eastern sections to limit convective potential there.
507 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Upper level analysis has ridging shifting to the east with large trof over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is located across southern Canada, with a cold front currently across central SD. Large occluding low pressure system will spin across south central Canada as upper low develops within the trough over that same area. Cold front will shift east of the forecast area this evening.
a cold front is located and shown on satellite from nr Bottineau to east of Minot to just west of Bismarck. Temps in the low 70s and dew pts in the low-mid 50s is creating sfc based CAPE of just over 1000 j/kg. All short range models and CAM models indicate a line of showers and t-storms forming likely with the first boundary and just ahead of actual cold front as it moves into DVL-JMS region by 00z. Rain chances remain for portions of the forecast area through Saturday night as an upper level disturbance swings through ahead of the main upper low. Cooler air rushes in Saturday night, as low level winds swing back to the north and cold air advection kicks in.
737 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather tonight. The next chance for showers arrives Saturday afternoon and evening with a warm frontal boundary.
Tomorrow is expected to be drier as PWs lower a bit and the upper-level weakness helping convection develop today shifts off to the east and weak upper-level ridging moves in.
High pressure providing a tranquil weather pattern will remain positioned over the Southern Appalachian Region through the next 24 hours.
750 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Chances of showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east this evening and into tonight along a warm frontal boundary lifting northeast through the area.
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Precip temporarily winding down as upper trough pulls away from the region and warm front lifting into northern NE through central IA. Will maintain small chances of a shower or storm across the forecast area Saturday, but the better chance comes along the cold front during the late afternoon, which by then extends from central KS through central IA.
Stratus has been slowly dissipating this afternoon as the upper trough associated with this mornings rain has moved northeast of the area. With continued southerly flow overnight, low temperatures stay warm in the lower 60s. If some can develop, will need to watch for wind gusts possibly mixing to the surface if they can break through the low level inversion.
The exception to this will be the slight possibility of some light shwrs/tstms developing across the Cumberland Plateau Region Sat afternoon as ridging influences sfc/aloft begin to shift EWD of mid state region, allowing available atm moisture to interact with marginal instability and the orographic lifting mechanisms effects of the Cumberland Plateau Region. This sfc front will eventually push NEWD at a warm front placing the mid state in the very broad warm sector, making the weather pattern somewhat summer-like, with isolated to scattered mainly light shwrs/tstms thru at least Thu. Increasing atm moisture along with increasing chances of rainfall will result in lows Sat and Sun nights a few degrees warmer, generally in the lower 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region, with highs on Sun upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows a couple degrees warmer than this morning with more cloud cover and some turbulent mixing expected. Mid-level ridging moves in by tomorrow and we see better capping in place which will limit the areal coverage of showers even greater than what we have today. Lows continue to be warmer than average.
Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the Desert Southwest with southwesterly flow between a closed low off the Baja Peninsula and an anticyclone across Sonora. Despite the presence of ample low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s), morning sounding from Phoenix shows warm and drier air aloft associated with the building ridge.
This is likely due to mid level moisture advecting from upper low over the Gulf.
CAMs show isolated/scattered storms developing late this afternoon in western portions of the fa near a pre-frontal trough and with sfc heating. Models continue to show the cold front moving into NW OK early/mid evening then continue to move across the area tonight. Showers/storms will remain possible with the front and is expected to eventually overtake any activity on the pre-frontal trough. After one more day where the heat index reaches toward 100, a cold front is expected to sweep through Oklahoma tonight. A fast-moving mid-level trough will move to the north of Oklahoma associated with the front which is expected to enter northern Oklahoma a bit before sunset.
However, some small changes are a brewing as a surface frontal boundary extends out of an East Canada low pressure system into the Great Lakes, then to the Central Plains and then to the Rockies. In the upper levels, we continue to have an upper ridge present across the Southeast U.
951 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
Temperatures will be very warm again today, with highs on track to hit the lower to mid 90s.
640 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 12Z TAF Cycle Light and variable winds this morning will become north to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots after 14Z to 16Z today at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites as a cold front moves through. The cold front will move through the Amarillo TAF site around 01Z to 03Z Saturday with winds becoming north and northeasterly. /Issued 433 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ Early wind shift expected across northwest half of forecast area this morning, followed by true cold front arriving in far northwest part of combined Panhandles late this afternoon. Cold front then expected to sweep through remaining sections by midnight. Much cooler on Saturday with highs mostly in the 70s as a clear sky prevails.
833 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue until a strong cold front cross the area Saturday night. An upper trough and associated surface cold front is expected to approach the region Saturday, with passage Saturday night.
A gradual increase in moisture/precip is expected through the short term as a mid level inverted trough currently over the north central gulf moves west toward the TX coast. By Sat, models prog a sfc coastal trough to develop ahd of a weak cold front. This trough will provide low level moisture convergence across the eastern CWA and waters Sat morning then shifting inland Sat afternoon with the sea breeze. In addition, the models show a weak upper jet streak movg south to southwest across the area as a mid level trough moves in from the northwest and merges with the westward movg wave. The increase in clouds/precip on Sat will lead to slightly cooler mx temps.
1041 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Late morning surface analysis depicts weak high pressure (1018 millibars) centered over the southern Appalachians. deep-layered ridging remains centered over our region. Plenty of sunshine and relatively low humidity mixing down to the surface this afternoon will boost highs into the low to mid 90s inland, which is 3-5 degrees above climo for Sept. A light onshore breeze will keep coastal lows in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure was slowly edging east early this morning, as a cold front approached from the eastern Dakotas. Expect showers and tstms to gradually increase across the area from northwest to southeast during the day, as WAA develops, the cold front approaches and PWATs increase to around 1. A deepening low pressure system will develop along the cold tonight, and move toward central Lake Michigan by daybreak Saturday. Low temperatures should range from the middle 50s northwest to the lower to middle 60s southeast. Showers and a few tstms will continue into Saturday as the upper trof swings through the state, but a decreasing trend is expected in the afternoon. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will only reach the 60s in most areas.
855 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Update A weak area of high pressure will track eastward through the region today. A stronger cold front will push through the region Saturday morning. A cooler airmass will spread into the region Saturday afternoon and evening. A low level jet and warm front pushes in from the south tonight after midnight. followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday morning.
1051 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Upper trough and sfc front will create isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the area today. Dry and slightly warmer weather is expected on Saturday.
728 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today and will crest over the region tonight. High pressure will shift offshore on Saturday as a warm front lifts northeast into southern New England.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected tonight as a cold front nears then moves through the region. with cooler/drier air in store for the remainder of the weekend.
Will see increasing mid/high clouds through the afternoon with temperatures reaching the middle 70s north to the lower 80s south. Progressive flow regime continues within broad trough axis that extends from the Pacific Northwest to southern Ontario. Those earlier mentioned subtle height rises and attendant surface ridging will bring a nice start to the weather, with just some increasing high and mid level clouds as we head through today. Moisture advection continues to ramp up tonight as h8-h7 theta-e ridge pokes overhead. Much less certain about overnight shower coverage south of the bridge, with said limited dynamics and a less favorable deep layer moisture profile. Models are in good agreement that low pressure tracks across far northern lower/eastern upper Michigan Saturday.
At the surface, a warm front was noted along the KS/OK state line and profiler data showed the low level jet veering to the southwest with the greatest moisture flux and isentropic upglide over southeast KS, likely the reason for the continued precip in that region. For this morning, precip across east central KS is expected to eventually fall apart as the low level jet and isentropic lift weaken. Weaker mixing and an earlier onset of some cold air advection across the northern CO is expected to keep highs in the lower and mid 80s. With good dry air advection behind the front and skies likely to clear out, lows should fall into the lower and mid 50s for most areas.
A cold front will move into the KABI area near the end of the forecast period, turning southerly winds to the north, and bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms as well. Upper level ridging sits in between these features over west central Texas. Tonight, a cold front will move into our northern counties after midnight, making it to the Interstate 20 corridor by around 7 AM Saturday morning. Along and behind this cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight, and north of Interstate 20.
The Florida Peninsula currently sits under weak ridging aloft in between two upper level troughs over the western Gulf of Mexico and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Through today and Saturday, the Mid- Atlantic trough will retrograde southwest towards the east coast of Florida, breaking down the weak ridging over Florida. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will hold in place generally across the Florida Panhandle, with easterly low level flow persisting.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1019 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southeast United States. Broad upper level ridge of high pressure covers the southern U. Meanwhile higher dewpoints, in the lower to mid 70s, stretch from along the Mississippi River west into Arkansas. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s. A potent upper trof will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday driving a cold front south.
1203 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
This solid line of convection has kept the low-level jet focused a bit further south than earlier anticipated and will make it difficult for it to expand much further north this morning. Precipitation should gradually scatter out later this morning as the low-level jet weakens and the weak upper impulse overhead pushes east of the area. Depending on how quickly precipitation can clear out this morning, and if any sun can peek out this afternoon, the atmosphere may have enough time to become weakly to moderately unstable this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest. By Saturday an expansive area of high pressure will be quick to build in behind the cold front bringing a rather spectacular early autumn weekend to the region.
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Aviation A weak area of high pressure will track eastward through the region today. A stronger cold front will push through the region Saturday morning. A cooler airmass will spread into the region Saturday afternoon and evening. A low level jet and warm front pushes in from the south tonight after midnight. followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday morning.
(Issued 1033 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016) As the past few days have trended, this morning is no different, temps currently range from the low to mid 80s with plentiful sunshine this morning. The upper-level ridge will hang around for one more day across the southeast providing dry and warm conditions across the TN Valley. High temps will reach the low/mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon and increase tonight as low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler through the weekend with less humid conditions. With weak high pressure over the area and calm winds along with moist boundary layer. Main precipitation event expected tonight into Saturday as nose of 30-40 kt low level jet moves into the area coincident with mid level short wave and 2" PWAT axis within Theta-E ridge.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a trough over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. A ridge runs up through California in response. To the northwest a second ridge is developing off the coast of British Columbia. Saturday through Saturday Night: A second trough will develop over the Gulf of Alaska as the coastal ridge moves inland. Flow will become northwest and conditions should remain stable as the ridge pass over the area fairly quickly. As the this ridge will pass through rapidly, it will not have the time to pull in much hot Desert Southwest air with it.
639 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016 No changes required with this update other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC as the surface cold front will soon be passing through the US Highway 2 corridor. Cooler temperatures with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast for today. As of 08 UTC, a cold front near the international border will continue to propagate southeast across western and central North Dakota this morning. Temperatures in the lower to mid 60s are expected area today. Scattered rain showers focused behind the front this morning will increase in coverage with daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft with the upper level low.
A strong cold front is forecast to arrive Saturday night with breezy, dry northerly winds, as well as unsettled and cooler weather. A flat ridge will move over the Inland NW today and tonight resulting in dry conditions. For Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening an upper trough over Central British Columbia drops southeast with an approaching cold front. Overnight Saturday night the dry cold front tracks south through the Okanogan Valley with windy conditions expected with the front passage.
The upper level ridge responsible for this pattern will finally back off as a trough sweeps across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the next 48 hours. The trough will drive a cold front through Mid Tennessee Saturday evening.
1144 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
528 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Upper trough and sfc front will create isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the area today. Dry and slightly warmer weather is expected on Saturday.