Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly clear skies and light winds over the land will allow for temperatures to fall more tonight and Sunday night, with lows in the low to mid 60s across most inland locations.
Northeast winds could increase some Sunday afternoon, especially at MEI/HBG as the pressure gradient between high pressure and Hurricane Irma increases. /EC/ High pressure and a dry airmass with precipitable water well below an inch continue to maintain quiet weather over the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, high pressure centered over the OH will remain wedged into the lower MS valley with a continuation of the dry northeasterly wind flow. Expect high in the low 80's and lows Sunday night falling into the upper 50's near 60.
239 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Cool and dry weather is expected this weekend under high pressure. Broad high pressure will maintain dry and calm conditions tonight. Current dewpoint values and radiational cooling support lows slightly cooler than last night, with values in the mid 30's in spots north of I-80 and in the higher terrain overnight.
Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and several degrees above average for this time of year.
Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with the higher values mainly over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama.
159 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Upper level ridging remains firmly in place over Texas extending northward into the central Plains. To the west over California sits a closed low, and to the east lies a trough over New England and the mid Atlantic and Hurricane Irma off the tip of Florida. This in turn pushes the upper ridge over Texas westward to the Four Corners southward into northern Mexico.
453 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Cool and dry weather is expected this weekend under high pressure. With high pressure settling in overhead, and diurnal cumulus fading rapidly with sunset, a clear/calm night seems almost assured. With dewpoints falling into the lower 40s to mid 30s overnight, this will allow for a spot or two of frost being possible in the deepest valleys in Forest and Garrett County by morning. That said, the entire area will be a few degrees cooler than last night, which means we are set for our coldest night of the season to this point.
High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes, maintaining a northeasterly feed of cool, dry air.
Initially we have retreating high pressure to the east with some return flow developing. We will continue to mention some chance PoPs for this feature as LLJ increases overnight as the trough moves in. The ECMWF is most vigorous with this trough but it too weakens it as it progresses further east into the Great Lakes upper ridge. Away from tropical cyclone Irma, much of the northern and western CONUS will be dominated by upper level ridge centers.
The drying trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night with mid level ridging aloft and high pressure in control over Texas and the northwest Gulf, even as Hurricane Irma to the east begins to subtly tighten the surface pressure gradient.
359 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Weak ridging axis centered over the spine of the Rockies has maintained and will maintain this dry northwest upper flow pattern across the state. keeping this dry and cooler northeasterly lower level wind in place.
300 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley will remain in place through the weekend.
225 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will dominate through the weekend.
301 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Closed mid level low pressure was located over the northern plains today and is forecasted to slowly drift northeastward overnight. Forecast soundings indicate a deep layer of dry air in the lower levels which should inhibit precipitation from reaching the ground. Have kept the forecast dry for now given the low confidence any development. Not much change in the pattern so lows tonight will be in the lower 60s and highs tomorrow in the 80s. Little change in the sensible weather pattern is expected for much of the the upcoming week with the region remaining under the influence of a gradually eroding upper tropospheric longwave ridge over the Rockies.
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure is mainly in control over the region through Sunday afternoon. A high pressure system which is currently located the Great Lakes region will slowly drift southeast tonight into Sunday. The western periphery of the high pressure will be over the Mid Mississippi valley and produce light east to southeast winds and drier air across the area on Sunday. These easterly winds will keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday.
A quiet night expected otherwise across the CWA under upper ridging over the central and southern Rocky mtns.
Through the short term period, the upper level trough will continue to move east out of the region and ridging will build in. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes. This will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.
Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend.
/issued 1055 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Sfc ridging will remain in place today from the OH Valley SW into Cntrl TX, maintaining dry NE winds across the area. The short term progs continue to suggest that this low level moisture will continue to gradually advect W today as well, possibly reaching NE LA this afternoon.
the large upper level ridge (590 mb) will continue to build over the region. A little warmer Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Pattern Forecast: Broad ridging encompasses the nation's midsection and northeastward into northern Ontario. though a bit "dirty" with a couple of short wave troughs within and dropping down the front side of the ridge over the Dakotas and lower Mississippi Valley. Long wave trough over the eastern Pacific with a couple of embedded short wave troughs along the west coast of North America. nice pocket of dry air associated with this low over the upper Great Lakes (12z precipitable water values at APX/DTX below 50 percent of normal).
1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 138 AM CDT A pleasant fall weekend is in store as an expansive upper ridge across the upper Midwest will spread east, while only slowly progressing through the Great Lakes region. KMD 138 AM CDT A weak upper disturbance across the northern/central plains will attempt to push into the upper ridge, but attempts appear pretty futile such that little more than a few clouds will slowly spread into the area from this feature to start the week. The upper ridge looks to also keep the remnants of Hurricane Irma from making headway northwest to the region, but there is some guidance that brings some higher clouds into northwest Indiana.
A dry northerly flow in the low and mid levels will maintain clear skies. High pressure remains over the lower Mississippi Valley while Hurricane Irma slides closer to the Florida Keys this morning. Aloft a trough is over the eastern portions of the country and this continues to drag in a cool and dry air mass to the north central gulf coast.
Once these clouds clear and daytime mixing ceases, clear skies and light easterly winds will prevail into Sunday as strong high pressure expands across the Great Lakes region. The upper trough that brought some unsettled cooler weather will continue is progression off to the east and out to sea through today as a strong high pressure system begins to move over the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Some cooler air is lingering over the region as a more northerly flow aloft remains through tonight. Forecast overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer than this mornings lows where Flint set a record low temperature of 36 degrees.
309 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will stay in control of the weather into Sunday. With the clear skies and lingering lighter winds as high deptarts, interior areas of central and east may see lows in the low 30s tonight but readings in the 20s/30s will not be as widespread as occurred last night. Warming trend continues on Sunday as south winds increase with the high center moving to the lower Great Lakes.
Subsidence associated with this high has resulted in mostly sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. 12z models are in good agreement that the upper level ridge will move east tonight. As this occurs, a weakening short wave trough, currently over the Dakotas, will move east.
A persistent upper ridge remains anchored over the Intermountain West. That should maintain somewhat of a persistence forecast for most elements, (weak to moderate southelry surface winds, climatological to slightly warmer than climate temperatures).
102 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Please see Aviation Update for 18Z TAFS An upper level ridge was over the Northland this morning with a trough just off to the west over the Northern Plains. The upper trough will move east tonight into the Red River Valley. As the upper trough moves over Minnesota Sunday clouds will increase, especially over the western half of the Northland. Highs will be warmer than today and be in the seventies for most areas.
238 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Latest upper analysis showed troughs over the east and west coasts with a ridge over the central CONUS. At the surface a trough was becoming better defined over MT/WY and the western Dakotas with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating and the low level moisture have combined to push the MLCAPE to 500-1000J/KG over parts of western and central South Dakota this afternoon, however is appears that the CIN is strong enough to keep convection from developing over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the upper ridge will rebuild over the region. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than average.
106 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure firmly in control over the Upper Great Lakes should result in a pleasant day today with plenty of sunshine. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies with a closed low off the CA coast and a closed low associated with Irma over the sern U. There is also a trough in eastern Canada as well at that time. The ridge builds into the plains on Wed and into the upper Great Lakes on Thu and Fri. Under high pressure and continue dry air mass, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through this forecast period.
High Pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide dry.
518 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 An upper level low will slowly exit across the maritimes tonight through Sunday.
206 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates remainder of the weekend. With heating, stratocu clouds have formed in this low level moisture being lifted, but these are expected to decrease somewhat this afternoon as drier air aloft mixes down, leaving more sunshine than cloud. Per model guidance and current trends, have fog lifting into stratus across much of the area, especially the lowlands, beneath a shallow post frontal inversion.
137 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will help provide dry and quiet weather conditions for the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
139 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will gradually build southeast across our region during the course of the weekend. This will allow for notably improved weather, and eventually warmer temperatures.
/issued 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Latest surface analysis showed a 1024mb high over Ohio valley with an associated ridge axis to northeast Texas. Upper air analysis revealed a trough axis from just east Hudson to northeast CONUS. Upper level trough is expected to push to the Eastern Seaboard today and lift northeast Sunday.
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will dominate through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep a cool and dry east flow through tonight. Pleasant weather can be expected through basically all of this upcoming week with mainly dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through Sunday under high pressure. Lighter winds and lower waves are then expected into the upcoming week under high pressure.
Upper trof will push through the area aloft tonight, with a weak Pacific front accompanying it at the surface. Temperatures will top out about 10 degrees cooler than today.
With warmer air moving in and southeast to south winds, we should see overnight lows that are warmer than last night.
312 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Sprawling high pressure if found over the Great Lakes, with dry air continually being fueled into our CWA from the east. In any case, being on the back side of the high, we will keep a pressure gradient going through the night, and that should result in a 8 to 10 mph wind tonight, and again tomorrow. Overnight lows will be just a touch warmer than last night, with upper 40s northeast to mid 50s southwest.
142 PM PDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Low pressure will develop off the Southern California Coast through Sunday, then lift slowly north through midweek. The low will increase moisture and the chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region through Sunday.
With the winds elevated, near to slightly warmer lows are expected tonight compared to yesterday.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper- level ridging over the central US, with troughing over New England to the mid-Atlantic and also along the West Coast, and with Irma's circulation looming on the north side of Cuba. Slow-moving weak upper low will continue to provide impetus for scattered showers, with just enough instability (MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) to support isolated thunderstorms embedded among the showers.
215 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Unseasonably strong high pressure will extend into North Carolina from the north through Sunday night.
/Issued 422 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ A mostly dry forecast in store as high pressure will dominate the southern plains for the majority of the forecast period. This is what will help draw up warmer temperatures toward the end of the week.
With strong high pressure to our north and Hurricane Irma to our south, a tight pressure gradient will remain over the CWA through Sunday night and this will bring gusty winds to much of the region through the short term.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Moist southerly flow continues over northern Arizona this morning as an upper low is located off the central California coast.
416 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will continue to build southeast across our region during the course of the weekend. This will allow for notably improved weather, and eventually warmer temperatures.
257 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates remainder of the weekend. Strong Canadian high pressure will continue to feed cool and dry air on northeast breezes through Sunday. High pressure will relinquish its grip on the region in response to the north northwestward push of Irma towards the Tennessee Valley. With the track of Irma forecast a bit further to the west, then curling southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley, wind and rain effects here are getting slightly downplayed from previous days for our area.
This weekend, Nevada will remain stuck between low pressure off the California coast and high pressure to the east.
Ridging aloft continues today and warm temperatures aloft will limit areal coverage of thunderstorms. Slightly cooler at most locations due to an increase in cloud cover.
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Tranquil weather will continue today and tonight under the influence of high pressure. The high, which is currently over the Great Lakes Region, will drift southeast through tonight. The Mid Mississippi Valley will be on the western periphery of the high and this will produce a light east-southeast flow across Missouri and Illinois today.
As a result, min temps tonight should moderate slightly from what was observed this morning, with max temps Sunday similar if not a tad warmer than what has been observed thus far this afternoon.
The high resolution models have shown the potential for some of these showers to move up into far southeast ND and west central MN tonight. Sunday highs should be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
238 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will continue to build southeast across our region during the course of the weekend. This will allow for notably improved weather, and eventually warmer temperatures.
250 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Unseasonably strong high pressure will extend into North Carolina from the north through Sunday night.
313 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Most showers/tstms this evening are expected to be over and near the higher terrain. Then more showers/tstms will develop in the afternoon hours over and near the higher terrain.
355 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 An upper level low across South Dakota is clearly visibly in water vapor imagery this afternoon. Forcing from this low has helped to sustain a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the local area this afternoon despite the limited instability to work with. expect clearing skies and a rebound in temperatures across the local area as cloudy skies and showers have kept most locations cooler than previously forecast this afternoon. High pressure will remain over the center of the country to start the extended periods as an upper level low spins off the coast of California and the remnants of hurricane Irma track into the southeastern US.
402 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 The remnants of Harvey have taken on the appearance of a hybrid mid-latitude cyclone with a comma head appearance, dry slot, and preceding band of convection.
402 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Upper ridge remains in place across Colorado today, though increasing energy will begin to flatten it somewhat by late afternoon and overnight as wave ejects from the Great Basin. Instability increases slightly as mid level moisture crests the ridge and drops south in the region, and with weak upward motion spreading across the state, suspect we'll see an upturn in tsra along and west of I-25 in the afternoon.
225 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Weak high pressure today.
Leaned toward the cooler metmos tonight and Friday night due to subsidence and drying with decreasing wind speeds.
With models still showing 40-50 kts just off the surface, we'll have to monitor closely as the Low nears/deepens.
a rain band from Harvey will lift north and into the MRX CWA as a warm front. the remnants of the low will lift north and east over middle TN into central KY on Friday into Friday night. A 50KT 850MB jet will accompany the low and increase low level wind shear across the area.
249 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A broad area of high pressure over northwest Ontario will gradually move towards eastern Ontario and lower Great Lakes as the work week comes to an end. Southerly flow develops at low/mid levels Friday as a warm front moves in from the west bringing a chance for rain showers late in the day. On the synoptic scale a broad mid-level ridge will track from the Rockies across the Great Plains today resulting in an area of high pressure over northwest Ontario to deepen. By Friday morning this warm front will stretch from the central Great Plains as far north as northern Ontario, moving east through the weekend towards the Upper Great Lakes. As the warm front approaches clouds will increase across the Northland during the day Friday with breezy southerly winds developing.
301 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A frontal boundary will drop south through the area this morning into the early afternoon bringing clouds and cooler temperatures. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s. Brisk easterly winds will develop between high pressure building into the Great lakes and low pressure tracking into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday.
Tropical Storm Harvey will slowly lift northeastward from southern Louisiana into the lower Mississippi Valley. An upper ridge will be centered east of the Florida peninsula today. The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey will lift from the lower Mississippi River Valley toward the Tennessee River Valley bringing increased moisture and a warm front into the forecast area. The warm front is expected to move into the central Midlands by midday providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Mid-level short wave energy moving over the ridge will move into the western/northern Midlands and Piedmont regions this afternoon. Models show the highest QPF in the Upstate. The main threat appears to be along the warm front although convective lines possible along approaching cold front which may move through Friday night. Slightly warmer temperatures expected Friday.
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Cool high pressure was over western Ontario with broad low pressure in the lee of the Rockies, extending from Alberta to Wyoming. Ridging aloft begins breaking down tonight, leading to weak upper level troughing and an associated surface front moving across the Northern Plains through Thursday. The current ensemble and deterministic models are projecting a broad upper level trough encompassing the Northern Plains during the latter half of the extended. Though ND is on the dry side of the trough; chances for rain overall are slim.
316 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Pretty quiet weather is expected across North and Central Texas during the next couple of days as high pressure centered to our northwest dominates the region in the wake of exiting Tropical Depression Harvey.
338 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 An upper high over the Four Corners region today and tonight will allow for a dry northerly upper flow across the Panhandles. As an upper trough approaches the Panhandles from the northern and central Rockies by late Friday and Friday night, the upper high will shift south over the southern Rockies and allow for a northwesterly upper flow to prevail. Convection should develop over the higher terrain and mountains of the central and southern Rockies which would propagate southeastward into the far northwest portions of the forecast area by late Friday and then across much of the Panhandles, especially the northern, central and eastern portions, Friday night.
149 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area early Thursday, but little if any rain is expected. Cooler weather is ahead for Friday to start September with highs mostly in the 60s.
450 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A weak cold front will drop south across the region today and stall south of the Ohio River.
Weak Pacific cold front is emerging from the mountains early this morning and will make a slow trek across the forecast area today.
This is indicative of the last moisture push ahead of a dry cold front, now draped across southeast Oregon (as of 3 AM MDT). Warm and dry conditions are expected Friday as an upper level ridge moves into the region from the west. Haze will return to much of the region Friday due to smoke from area wildfires trapped under the building ridge aloft.
108 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis show the ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. Rotating south around the ridge was a short wave trough over Northwestern Nebraska. This short wave trough has lead to some rain activity. For the rest of the afternoon and into the evening this short wave trough will continue to move south toward the Tri-State Area, but will fill before moving into the forecast area. During the day another upper level short wave trough will flatten the ridge to the west some as the trough moves southeast. Isolated storms may accompany this trough as it nears the forecast area by early evening. Large scale ridge continues to dominate the pattern across the western US.