Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result of this system and high pressure well to our east, deep southerly flow is over the area and is seen in JAX sounding this morning. some of which may be intense cells due to the high moisture and forecast instability of about 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. However, winds should pick up in the mid to late aftn as gradient between the high and Hurricane Nate was brings southeast winds closer to 15-20 kt range over the local waters and combined seas 3-5 ft with small craft exercise caution conditions headlined today and potentially again tonight for both the near and offshore waters.
1039 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Surface ridging and a much drier airmass continue to build into Michigan late this morning in the wake of strong low pressure that pushed thru our area yesterday. save for some lingering low clouds within the higher elevations of Northern Lower Michigan. Initial cold front is pushing across Huron, taking widespread precip with it. Secondary cold front will exit ne lower MI by 12Z. The Nam is of course sometimes (often?) overly moist in the low levels, and that is certainly the case with the ongoing event.
942 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Rain showers expected with cold front stalling over our area today. This area should gradually lift north today, and expecting it to strengthen some as it runs into the cold front currently across southeast Ohio.
The upper trough is in two pieces with one main wave situated across south central Canada and the other digging into the intermountain west. No precip is expected with the frontal passage due to very limited moisture and any forcing situated closer to parent trough in Canada. Warmer air in place prior to the front, and southwesterly flow at the surface and in the lower levels will allow temps to warm up nicely today.
/issued 413 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ Hot temperatures return today before a strong cold front brings the coldest conditions of the season so far. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air will gather behind a strong cold front expected to enter the TX Panhandle late tonight. High temperatures will likely be reached around noon before cooler air filters in later in the day.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the forecast area today.
The quiet pattern continues as high pressure builds aloft over South Texas.
518 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Sharp upper trough will dig into the southern Rockies today then kick out across the central Plains on Monday. Cold front will initially move through today, but push of coldest air will come tonight, with a brief period of gusty north winds possible.
Look for the Tropical Storm Force winds to be sustained up to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, especially along the higher elevations across the northern half of the metro. As the core of the system approaches Gadsden and Anniston around Noon, winds will be near Tropical Storm Force, with the highest winds in the higher elevations through the afternoon.
The latest surface map features a stalling surface cold front draped across northern Kentucky, with Hurricane Nate making its way across southeastern Mississippi. Aloft, an upper level ridge is parked across the western Atlantic, with a short wave trough accelerating northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, while broader troughing takes shape across the Continental Divide. The highest rainfall amounts still look to be along the I-64 corridor, where around three and a half inches could be seen when all is said and done. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s, likely testing some maximum low temperature records. The low pressure associated with the remnants of Nate will have progressed well northeast of the region to begin the period.
The day should start out sunny but clouds will increase during the afternoon in the north as a weak trough approaches. The trough will exit overnight with skies clearing. Monday should be partly sunny and a bit cooler, though still milder than usual.
A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front will traverse the high plains region Sunday night into Monday night.
By the end of the period, the aforementioned cold front should begin pushing into far western AR.
622 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A much drier airmass has overspread the area behind the departing low pressure system, setting the stage for very nice weather to finish up the weekend. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with 925 mb temps climbing up into the 17-20C range by this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Highs will be well above average in the 70s over most of the area, with 80 degrees possibly within reach in some of the typically warmer valley locations. Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of Sunday's cold frontal passage with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate late today as a frontal boundary/upper low approach the region. Sharp upper trough will dig into the southern Rockies today then kick out across the central Plains on Monday. Cold front will initially move through today, but push of coldest air will come tonight, with a brief period of gusty north winds possible.
Skies will be mostly clear today, with some increase in mid/high level clouds from the northwest by later tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. A weakening low pressure system will approach from the west today. Southerly winds ahead of this low will bring mild temperatures to the area once again, with high temps well above average values for the second week of October. The low will drag a cold front into the forecast area tonight. Medium Southwest flow will dominate in the upper levels over Wisconsin as a sharp trough over the intermountain west moves into the Great Plains and deepens.
Thus, will keep the higher chances for thunderstorms over interior and western areas of South Florida as the generally SSE flow combines with afternoon onshore flow.
945 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Tide levels remained quite a bit higher than normal this morning over portions of the Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas shorelines from the lower Amite River tidal basin area of Livingston Parish to the western and northern shorelines of Lake Pontchartrain. This will lead into the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms that return tomorrow (Monday).
The better return may be off the surface, suggesting the possibility of inverted-v soundings by Monday afternoon in advance the cold front associated with the upper system.
A strong cold front will sweep south across Utah today. Much cooler temperatures will follow the front for this afternoon through Monday.
Pressure falls on the high Plains ahead of the next upper trough over the western CONUS will turn winds back around to the south. High temps will be warmer than yesterday as the airmass modifies and the front starts to retreat, and the forecast has this handled well. Low level moisture return will begin tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front, leading to some potential for storms Monday afternoon over eastern Oklahoma. The better return may be off the surface, suggesting the possibility of inverted-v soundings by Monday afternoon in advance the cold front associated with the upper system.
A trough north of the area will bring several degrees of cooling and gusty winds at times early in the work week. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine today with high temperatures a degree or two cooler than what was observed yesterday.
/issued 411 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The Western Gulf and South Texas will be under a broad cyclonic flow in wake of recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nate and an upper ridge near Baja California.
1227 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Hydro Despite the passage of a cold front last evening, warm weather will continue the next couple days with highs well into the 70 and mostly sunny skies.
A rich plume of subtropical moisture pooled along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region this morning will produce a several hour period of light to moderate showers. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
Southerly return flow will increase today which will provide high temps a few degrees warmer than Sat with all sites expected to be in the 80s. Precip will come to an end quickly during the day Tue as the upper low lifts into northern MO by early Tue evening. In addition to increased rainfall chances, much colder air will spill into the area behind the strong cold front.
A period of strong FGEN/WAA will also occur over parts of the Northland today as the low moves through. Cooler air will continue to move across the region tonight in northwest flow through at least 850mb. The area of high pressure will continue to build into the region clearing the skies and pushing in colder air and will keep the forecast area mainly dry until the weekend.
/issued 128 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ A large upper level trough centered across the Ohio Valley will continue to translate toward the east coast by Tuesday. Temperatures will soar to much above normal values both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon as a surface lee low/trough develops and intensifies in this flow.
238 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Clouds will continue their exodus early this morning as a chilly high pressure system builds south into the mid MS River Valley. Most locations will top out in the lower to mid 50s. The next weather system in the form of a cold front will push slowly southeast toward the OH River later Wednesday night.
Ridge of high pressure extends from western Minnesota into central Oklahoma at 20Z providing light winds and mainly clear skies this afternoon. As the ridge axis shifts east tonight and Tuesday winds will become southerly and increase through the morning. Warmer air will return to the region on Tuesday in advance of low pressure tracking east across south central Canada. The gusty winds and warmer temperatures will increase the fire danger potential in parts of southeast Nebraska on Tuesday. The Canadian low will drag a cold front through the region Tuesday night but any cooling will be limited as the main pool of cold air remains over the northern plains into the upper Midwest on Wednesday.
Light and variable winds gradually become southerly this morning as an expansive area of high pressure drifts eastward. Some of our northern zones may approach wind advisory criteria at times during the afternoon and early evening, but quickly veering winds through the lowest 5000ft and inferred warm air advection should keep the mixed layer rather shallow and prevent the strongest winds in the 850mb-800mb layer from efficiently reaching the surface. Highs were lowered another degree or two as MOS guidance trends cooler in the presence of expansive mid to upper level cloud cover.
Opted to go with the RAP/HRRR with positioning of the trough farther east given the ongoing drought conditions. This also results in warmer temperatures and deeper mixing, which leads to drier air. A cold front will pass across western Kansas toward Wednesday morning as the aforementioned upper level trough moves into the northern plains.
Upper troughing digs into the upper Great Lakes on Wed and amplifies into the ern U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over the ern U. Heavy freezing spray is possible Wed night into Thu night.
With high pressure continuing to build across the region today, visibility should remain nearly ideal for moon gazers. Wednesday is also shaping up to be a rather pleasant day although with the high shifting off to the east and winds turning back out of the southeast, low level moisture will be a bit higher likely leading to a bit more in the way of cloud cover.
Northerly winds will continue to bring in CAA and despite the mostly sunny skies, daytime temps will only reach the lower 40s.
216 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure at the surface was providing mostly clear skies and light winds, leading to seasonably cold conditions early this morning. As the high moves east, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen ahead of a low pressure system moving across southern Canada and its trailing cold front reaching south into the central plains. Tonight, high level clouds will likely continue to stream over the area while the low level south to southwest flow is maintained and even strengthened ahead of the approaching dry cold front, which models have reaching into eastern Iowa toward 12z.
Snow showers across northern portions of the area will be tapering off through the morning as the upper trough axis and its associated steep lapse rates will be pulling away to the east. In this pattern, the models tend to end snow showers and reduce cloud cover too quickly, and we will have a N-NW fetch off the Great Lakes into SW VA continuing until around 18Z, at which time a building ridge turns the flow more westerly across IN/OH.
Impacts include: strong south winds, snowfall, possibly blowing snow, and possible sleet/freezing rain. The core of the low level jet will be located along the Red River Valley late morning into the afternoon hours. Lastly, an upper jet and vort max rotating around the upper low to the north may bring showery precip to the region this afternoon. The occurrence and coverage of this precip is uncertain, but the p-type would be sleet/freezing rain. A strong cold front will be gradually pushing southward across the region during the day on Wednesday. The main impact associated with this cold frontal passage will be blustery conditions through Wednesday evening.
/issued 943 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ The evening sfc analysis depicts sfc ridging extending from MO SW across Cntrl and Ern OK into N TX. The analysis also indicates a bit of a pressure gradient persisting across the region ahead of the ridge, but winds should gradually diminish after 06Z as the ridging begins to settle in. However, where the winds will stay up a bit (over portions of Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA), have bumped min temps up a tad to account for the mixing that will persist, as these areas remain a bit warmer than locales farther N.
Tonight through Wednesday night Latest surface analysis places what left of the decaying cold front somewhere over the southern part of the state. Water vapor imagery reveals troughing centered over the Ohio Valley with broad ridging once again over the western conus. Upper flow does flatten out Wednesday and with the high pressure shifting to the east, southerly surface flow will get reestablished and temperatures will rebound accordingly. Moisture levels will start to slowly increase as the new cold front drops into the northwest part of the state by the end of the period.
The downslope flow will lead to max temps rebounding nicely for Tue, with max temps climbing back into middle 50s for most locations, and with the low 60s possible across central KS. With the increasing winds, and warmer temps, there will be some elevated grassland fire weather concerns for Tue afternoon. The first in a rapid succession of cold fronts, will drop south across the plains on Tue night or early Wed. Not alot of moisture as this front pushes south, with cooler air pushing south across the area on Wed. The next chance for any measurable precipitation looks to arrive late Sat night as the next, and much stronger, cold front surges S/SE across KS late Sat afternoon/evening. As high pressure continues to translate away from the area, breezy southerly winds will return on Tuesday.
Dense fog is not expected to redevelop tonight as it has the past couple nights due to the clouds and approaching cold front. Pacific cold front currently along the northwest coast will lose its moisture tap as it continues east, so southern areas will get little or no pcpn as the front moves through overnight and Tuesday morning.
Made only minor changes to total snowfall amounts with 2-4+" over the higher terrain north and west of I-99/I-80.
332 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 A breezy to windy day is in store across the region, as a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough and front. With still quite a bit of snowpack across the forecast area, especially in far southeast SD, northwest Iowa, and parts of southwest Minnesota, temperatures will peak near or just above freezing. Further west, mid 30s to lower 40s are expected, however south central SD could soar as warm as the lower 50s. Winds will turn west northwest behind the front, however the mixy environment will help keep temperatures seasonally quite mild overnight in the mid 20s to lower 30s - which is warmer than the typical high temps this time of year.
Surface ridging stretching from Michigan into Texas early this morning will slide east through the day, allowing light northerly winds during the day to gradually become southerly by tonight. Moisture return associated with this flow will help keep lows tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning with most locations falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
The mid level trough will remain anchored over the area into the early afternoon hours. This will keep most places at or below freezing. The eastern valleys will likely fall into the lower teens, with a few single digit readings possible. We could reach the low to mid 50s by the afternoon, after starting off in the teens that morning. Confidence is high that the low clouds will stay around through at least dawn, with confidence decreasing into midday as some uncertainty remains on how long the clouds will stay with us.
RAP and HRRR surface temp/dewpoint spreads which are typically high on fire weather days are actually on the lower side of model guidance, which adds another sliver of uncertainty to the fire danger.
Upper ridge breaks down more and area will be under a weak flow regime (mainly zonal but some southwest component today bringing some mid and high clouds to the region). Cooler today with cold high pressure moving east out of the area late, bringing a slow return to low level moisture tonight and Wednesday, along with warmer temperatures.
214 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2018 Unseasonably warm and dry weather will persist through the entire week with high temperatures hovering around 80 degrees each day across the lower deserts. High pressure will remain dominant over the region into the weekend keeping skies mostly clear and temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. and the eastern Pacific under high amplitude ridging. Heights aloft will dampen slightly through the middle of the week as a weak trough passes through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
356 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A weak low pressure system in eastern Pennsylvania will bring the area a period of light snow through early afternoon. In general, snowfall will range from 1 to 3 inches with the highest amounts in the central southern tier and Finger Lakes region. A weak area of low pressure resides over eastern Pennsylvania with an inverted trough back through central New York. Elsewhere highs will range in the lower to middle 20s under brisk flow this afternoon. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will end by midnight due to surface ridging. A slow moving storm system will pull a cold front across NY and PA during the short term period.
High pressure aloft over the Great Basin will weaken ahead of a series of weather disturbance racing east across the northern Rockies midweek. A dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen along the west coast beginning late in the week. The weakening upper ridge across the Great Basin has allowed an extensive surge of mid/high level moisture to cross the forecast area this evening.
1259 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A dry pressure ridge will approach from the west through Tuesday and extend through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Warmer weather will return Wednesday with chances for rain. High temperatures will reach into the low 40s.
312 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as we remain between ridging over the Rockies and troughing across the eastern states. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis continues to move east of the forecast area allowing southerly return flow.
Today: Intense surface cyclone that has been wound up over the Alberta & Saskatchewan border during the night is forcing elongated high pressure extending from Ontario all the way to the TX/LA Gulf Coast east across the MS Valley. The intense surface cyclone will scoot east across extreme Southern Canada and should reach Lake Winnipeg early this evening. It'll be much warmer with highs from ~55 to the lower 60s likely in areas along, and west, of I-135 with areas east of I-135 rebounding to 50-55. Tonight-Thu Night: As the afore-mentioned surface cyclone moves east into Ontario it will drag a weak cold front into KS that'll likely reach the I-35 corridor Wed morning.
Across western zones, SW winds will be lighter, in proximity of the lee trough. The first weak cold front arrives Wednesday, with a north wind of 10-20 mph, reducing afternoon temperatures to the more seasonable 50s.
Tonight, warm air advection aloft commences and will result in warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. These factors should keep overnight lows a tad warmer than we would usually expect with the current snow cover in place. Cold front approaches the region by Tuesday evening and could bring some light precipitation north of I-90.
We should be well within the warm sector by 12Z Tuesday as a warm front passes to the northeast of the CWA overnight, while a surface in the lee side of the Rocky Mountains develops. Most of our CWA would probably see snow, considering the lower dewpoints expected, and we could even pick up a few inches of snow from this, especially northeast the way it looks now.
Glass The low level WAA regime will improve Tuesday night as southerly surface winds increase. This pattern will persist on Wednesday ahead of an encroaching cold front and should translate into well above average temperatures on Wednesday. There are some placement/speed differences with the advancing cold front and a consensus would have the front into the northern CWA during the later afternoon.
Thankfully no issues are expected today, as CAA continues in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area yesterday.
Chilly, fair weather expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure builds east across the region. Lows Tuesday night will likely end up in the low to mid 20s. High pressure and zonal flow aloft will result in dry weather ton Wednesday.
Winds continue to diminish toward sunrise with overnight lows in the lower 30s. On Wednesday an upper-level jet streak spreads over the northern US resulting in divergence ahead of closed mid-level cyclone over southern Canada. This closed low will assist in carving out another deep longwave trough over the eastern CONUS by the end of the week. The large scale ascent keeps the surface cyclone track in Canada, but a trailing cold front will extend to the southwest and pass through the area on Wednesday morning. The lack of a strong anticyclone behind the cold front means cold air advection will be limited.
Forecast Confidence is High High pressure will shift ewd for the afternoon with brisk sly winds and warm advection beginning. Strong WAA on a swly 65 kt LLJ will occur tnt as strong low pressure moves ewd across srn Canada.
NW winds will be gusty to 18KT at times overnight, settling to less than 10KT by 15Z, then becmg light and vrbl under high pressure by 21Z. NW winds will have a few gusts to 16KT at times overnight, settling to less than 10KT by 15Z, then light and vrbl by 21Z under high pressure.
CAA in northerly flow between the ridge and the low will force temperatures down into the mid 30s from Dothan to Albany, increasing to the southeast to around 40 degrees in the southeast Big Bend. In the upper levels a trough over the Eastern U.