Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 FROM HAYS TO PRATT.
606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/ (Today and tonight) A cold front has pushed through all of West Central Texas early this morning. Much cooler temperatures are forecast today, with highs generally in the mid 60s. The one exception will be across the Big Country where winds may stay in the 8 to 12 mph range overnight, which would result in slightly warmer temperatures.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
13Z SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT THROUGH NW TN AND THE WRN 1/3RD OF KY. SO SHOULD SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (MAINLY ERN AREAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).
EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS SNOW. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY.
1252 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON.
757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/ THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WHICH IS ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL NE. EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE LL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. SAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH AND PERHAPS NW SD WHERE COOLER BL CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE. MUCH WARMER CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
725 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY.
Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the remaining spot in the warm sector. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next upstream wave. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the west than the forecast was showing. As the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front through central Kentucky this morning. Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front. Much cooler temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s. For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. WITH MUCH OF THE WASATCH FRONT REACHING THE LOWER 60S.
1015 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
1008 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/ A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s most places. Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface.
1026 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NW FLOW ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO TODAY. MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL RIDE THIS NW FLOW INTO CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME CLOUDINESS FOR NW CO AND DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. EARLY LOOK AT MET/MAV TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE FRUIT GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY AND NORTH FORK VALLEY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED MOISTENING AND STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
Friday through the weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and even some lower 70s down in the Columbia Basin. Precipitation chances will be tied to two cold front passages.
642 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACRS THE WEST AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME VIRGA AND AT MOST.
1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR.
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO JUST SOUTH OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL ROLL INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TROF WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE FRIDAY EVENING BUT EXPECT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF THE CWA. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OVER AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
We'll do a quick update to remove the High Wind Warning from the grids, and freshen up other parameters as necessary. /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/ A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s most places. Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface.
1043 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF TAF SITES. /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/ A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
703 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area this morning.
High pressure will remain in control today with ridge axis overhead.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY PUTTING US ON THE WARMER. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIDE OF RIDGE. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND. WHILE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRONT SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
1255 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
708 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COOLER. NEAR CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD A WESTERN RIDGE PERSISTING.
MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO NW TN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE LOW 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 1 PM. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF I-65 AND THE UPPER 60S IN NW AL AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KMSL TERMINAL BY 23Z. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF TAF SITES. /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/ A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
940 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR DRY WEATHER. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL STEER WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
BROAD 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY DENSE FOG FORMATION.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015 High pressure ridge axis off to the east this morning, with gusty southerly flow dominating the region. Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s, located near the large fair weather system.
316 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR MOST AREAS DUE TO HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
COASTAL TROUGH FLATTENING AS IT SHIFTS WEST ACROSS MAINLAND FLORIDA. BEEN BREEZY AT THE COAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH AND THE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OF VA AND NC RESPONDS BY ELONGATING AS THE CENTER SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA INTO THU BEFORE IT IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AS TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ESE/SE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL KEEP PRODUCING STRONG.
High pressure moving off the Carolina coast today will provide us with plenty of sunshine, southerly breezes, and afternoon temperatures a few degrees above normal. A pool of moisture over Texas this morning will advect northeastward tonight ahead of low pressure in the Plains.
ALSO THINK PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
139 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MADE IT ALMOST TO THE LAKE BEFORE STALLING, IS NOW DISSIPATING. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S METRO AREAS AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EVERGLADES AND WEST.
WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.
426 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER LOW SPINS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE/EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER.
The snow that is currently impacting southwestern Montana, will spread north into a developing mid-level low pressure over eastern Oregon and Washington. An enhanced area of precipitation is expected to develop just to the east of the low pressure overnight tonight. As the low tracks to the north overnight into mid morning, orographic enhancement could produce periods of heavy snow over Lookout Pass in the morning.
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MORNING HOWEVER COULD BRING SOME SLIGHT COOLING THERE. THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN U.
TO OUR SOUTH, YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS REGRESSED NORTHWARD A BIT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN (20%) THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ERN BIG BEND WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.
5 INCH PW INTO EASTERN TX WHICH IS FEEDING ABOVE DOME OF COOLER AIR. WHILE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
250 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015 High pressure ridge off to the east. The front will be pushed north and south by the passage of two low pressure systems, with additional nudging likely by associated rounds of convection. Unfortunately, model disagreement and run-to-run variability persists in the exact timing/strength of the lows and also how far north/south they will push the front. The initial energy ejecting out of a Pacific coast upper trof/low will develop weak low pressure over the Plains during the day.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AND LOWER THICKNESSES SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDING DATA. DEEP TROUGHING HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS STAY FAIRLY MILD.
GOING INTO TOMORROW EXPECT A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.
204 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY.
631 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST.
IN ADDITION THE WARM FRONT IS PROGD TO LIFT N WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST MONDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) CONSISTENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. DISSIPATING WARM FRONT/MSTR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TODAY.
400 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. RIDGING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV WILL PUT A LID ON ANY SGFNT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA MONDAY AFTN DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW/WAA CAUSING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER LAYER SATURATION AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND WARM.
348 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST.
UPPER LOW OFF THE S OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO N CALIF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW IS RATHER SLOW AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. AND WITH THAT DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW. TO VARYING EXTENT MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND TO THE N OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INLAND TUE.
252 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN UPPER LOW CHURNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THOUGH AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES OVER NRN MS/NW AL, THIS IS MAINLY FALLING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS (WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOTED FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER). WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SOUTHERLY FLOW/VIRGA PROCESSES WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD/ SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM- MIDNIGHT IN NW AL, AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.
320 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015 TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY. SFC ANALYSIS AT 20Z HAS WARM FRONT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO HOUSTON HOBBY OVER THROUGH KATY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN RATHER STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOME DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.
400 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
THE AIR MASS ALOFT WAS WARMER AND AS A RESULT. 06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. THUS CONFINED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILER IN.
Only minor changes to temps for tonight as sfc winds and clouds shud help keep temps on the warmer side.
CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL JET CENTERED OVER E TX TO DEPART E TONIGHT AND MONDAY INTO MS AND AL. WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
147 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT HAS BEGUN TO LESSEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY WHICH MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. ELSW TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST SPREAD MORE SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT THROUGH.