Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 ALOFT: WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW THAT DOES NOT WANT TO RELEASE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION OVER WI. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY BECOME MORE MOBILE TODAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. A RIDGE WAS OVER THE WRN USA AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES (150 M) WERE OCCURRING HERE OVER THE PLAINS. BASED ON THIS HIGHS WERE RAISED 3-6F. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND HELP KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH AS A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU FRI NIGHT. AND RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN. (SAT THRU TUE) A QUIET AND NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
330 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 Weak cold front has pushed through western AR with the associated cooling being offset somewhat by full sun and downslope northwesterly flow.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY. ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV TRACKS EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
A FEW AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRINGING A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A FILLING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FLORIDA TODAY. OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT AND CREATE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE COUNTRY.
236 AM MST WED DEC 2 2015 LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HEIGHT RISES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. INVERSIONS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. THE FIRST WAVE IN THIS PERIOD IS A STRONG MOIST TROUGH THAT BECOMES DIFFUSED WHEN IT REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
417 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH IA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LIKELY ONLY BACK TO THE LOWER END MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST INSTANCES.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LOW. WITH 150KT JET FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A MODERATING TREND AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT SHIFTING THE CIRRUS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE EXPECTED IN SOME HILL COUNTRY SPOTS.
An upper level low will track into the the Great Lakes region today while an attendant upper trough axis swings across the Ozarks region this morning. Low to mid level cold air advection with the aid of cloud cover will result in a chilly day with highs only reaching the lower and middle 40s. The upper pattern will become more zonal and progressive the remainder of the week into the weekend in the wake of the exiting upper low.
255 AM MST WED DEC 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS BECOMING SNOW OR WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SW VA.
Far Southeast Oklahoma counties have been added to the freeze warning with temperatures falling just below freezing by Sunday morning.
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS/BOUNDARY LAYER. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND 30. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY IN. NO AVIATION WX CONCERNS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. BUT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH TEND NOT TO BE THE MOST EFFICIENT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
An upper level closed low over Iowa will slowly rotate southeastward through the night into southeast MO. However, another band of showers will then develop along the northeastern side of the closed upper low. The latest model guidance has come in warmer in the area under the band of precipitation. The lowest temps will likely be across south central KY where the rain is.
315 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 While similar processes are at play with respect to above freezing temperatures yet snow mixing in (steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, moisture available in the dendritic growth zone, etc. Mosaic radar imagery is showing very widely scattered showers (rain and snow) across the northern half of the forecast area, rotating south and eastward around an associated low pressure system. The question is whether or not some of it is reaching the ground, thanks to a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere. The wrench in the forecast lows for tonight will be the cloud cover: the more cover, the less likely of too much of a dip below freezing, which is the scenario that appears to be setting up with the aforementioned low.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST LA THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF AL. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MVFR/LVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT/DISSIPATE FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT. /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR RECENT COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 1002 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLOW THEN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE PORTION OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA REGIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS. WITH A COLD FRONT THEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL DRAG SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
301 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 Upper low and a quick ripple moving through the upper trof will result in a bit of vertical ascent across the region. Have lowered the pops into the low chance category and kept the shower wording.
236 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND SWING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS ACROSS AND BEFORE THE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE WILL SEE COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. 08 WE WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
340 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN STATE.
1118 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN, A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON THIS LAST OFFICIAL DAY OF WINTER. IN ADDITION, A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID- 50S IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
THIS IS CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. COUPLED WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHUTTLING IN MP AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AND ADVANCING STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
FEW CLOUDS WILL START THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO THE SOUTH. BANDS OF CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MARK THE LOCATION OF A COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING LEVEL TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT. A CLOSED LOW WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL DROP INTO WEST TN AND MOVE EAST WHILE TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE. LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY STEEP. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB TOMORROW NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO UTAH SUNDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA TODAY WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
340 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) AND MOVE THIS LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
Thus, the current Freezing Warning will be left intact.
207 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS BENEATH THE TROUGH.
319 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ORDINARILY EQUATE TO AN AIRMASS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL BUT FREEZING LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
250 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND A WARM-UP SUNDAY ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE TRENDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BOTH SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND WHERE LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SOME SNOWMELT TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ITS FORMATION. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM 35 IN THE ROLLA AREA TO THE 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND.
GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE NW CWA HIGHLIGHTING THE NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED.
Dry conditions will prevail across western Kansas tonight and Sunday as short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period. A weak flow aloft and extremely dry air in the lower/mid levels will void any precip chances across the region through late Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear skies and surface dewpoints down into the low to mid teens(F) will allow temperatures to fall well under the freezing mark. Look for lows down into the mid teens(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas. This will begin to scour out the colder air in the lower levels with H85 temperatures climbing to around 0C across central Kansas to near 5C closer to the Colorado border.
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 SATELLITE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE NE/IA BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN PRECIP ACROSS MAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ARE BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER NERN IA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLIDE S/SE WITH TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S.
419 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ~ 10 TO 15 DEG F BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. AND HAVE FOLLOWED A SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS. HAVE HELD OFF ON FOLLOWING COOLER NIGHTTIME GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR NOW.
323 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
243 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
317 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 Main forecast issues in the short term period lie with upper low passage later tonight/sunday.
243 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
248 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD. SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES WHERE COLDER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE UPR LOW IS PROGGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROF SUN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPR OH VLY RGN LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. A CROSSING WARM FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS TUE.
251 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND A WARM-UP SUNDAY ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE TRENDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BOTH SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND WHERE LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SOME SNOWMELT TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ITS FORMATION. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM 35 IN THE ROLLA AREA TO THE 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND.
THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKENS FOR LATE SUNDAY. A FEW PROTECTED VALLEYS WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CALL FOR TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR COOLEST POCKETS.
TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECTING GRADIENT WINDS TO SLACKEN AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SWITCHING US TO A SSW REGIME.
359 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MINNESOTA AND ARE NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO IOWA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. OUR HIGHS TOMORROW MIGHT END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST /WHICH IS MAINLY LOWER 40S RIGHT NOW/.
1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMING LOWERING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE NIGHT.
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER IOWA. AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER HUDSON BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TOMORROW.
131 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
437 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LEAVING ABOUT ONE HALF INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO END BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.
143 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD. SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES WHERE COLDER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE UPR LOW IS PROGGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROF SUN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPR OH VLY RGN LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. A CROSSING WARM FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS TUE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALOFT LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER ERN WY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 401 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE NOTICEABLY PICKED UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
WARM ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NE AND N CNTL FL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TIGHTENING THE LOCAL GRADIENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK IN.
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING TOWARD SUNRISE. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING SINCE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE EAST AND WARMER WEST.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE COLD FRONT CORRESPONDING TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA EARLY TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
Dry air continues to advect into the area from the north, with dewpoints in the lower 20s north of I-20. This dry air mass will settle over the region tonight as the surface anticyclone builds over West TX.
109 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER INLAND.
551 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY AFTN. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER LAV GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND ADDED GUSTS FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK IN.
345 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE WEAKER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN OHIO. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK (NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITH REGARDS TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR THE WIND FLOW).
MOST OF THE CWA WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE POWERED BY A DECENT CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.