Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The recently-arrived 00 UTC NAM remains consistent for Sunday with its stout thermal ridge characterized by 850 mb temperatures of 25 to 30 C along and west of Highway 83, supporting highs around 100 F. Slightly cooler temperatures will continue through the evening as an upper level ridge amplifies to the west. As the ridge axis pushes east tomorrow, western and central North Dakota will transition to southwest flow aloft. A few of the high resolution models show the potential for some precipitation approaching the west by Sunday mornings. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours over the northwest associated with an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous along the cold front by the evening hours on Sunday.
/Issued 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ The lee side low in the midst of all the high pressure continues to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
I expect this activity to come to an end, but with the front hanging around and dew points still in the low 70s for many, there is enough instability to spark showers throughout the overnight period.
545 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Antecedent moisture over the region remains trapped under high pressure as seen in the 12z sounding with 0. 500 mb pattern will shift over the next 24 hours and bring the center of high pressure over the Great Basin eastward to center over southern Utah on Sunday night.
655 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure was centered just north of Bloomington early this afternoon, and will be shifting into the Ohio Valley this evening. Latest model guidance suggests a few showers/storms with it will be possible as soon as late Sunday morning across the northern CWA, but main threat remains with scattered afternoon and early evening storms as the cold front moves southward across the forecast area. Have continued the trend of raising the high temperatures from the model blends, solidly in the low-mid 90s most areas.
1040 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will dissipate across the area tonight. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
It was a very active evening for Yavapai County as storms rolled off the higher terrain and into deeper moisture and higher instability. With a strong ridge centered to our northwest, daytime temperatures were actually well above normal in areas that didn't see much storm activity including the Grand Canyon and Page areas. High pressure in the mid to upper levels will remain centered over the Nevada/Arizona/Utah border area.
748 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will dissipate across the area this evening. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
This boundary dissipates early in the week as an upper level trough approaches from the NW.
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Mid level upper low continues to linger over eastern Colorado, with deep plume of moisture overriding our CWA.
816 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight chance pops.
909 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure will affect our region through the remainder of the weekend.
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight.
A weak upper level low will remain over the ern plains overnight. Moisture associated with a weak upper low over central Colorado, stuck under a broad upper ridge across the intermountain west, continues to allow scattered thunderstorms to form, mainly south of I76. The upper low will slowly shift east over Lincoln County overnight, keeping a chance of showers and storms continuing over there. The upper low will continue moving east Sunday, with warmer midlevel temperatures moving in from the west. Overall however, high temperatures will be slightly warmer. Most of the plains will remain dry except the far eastern plains still under the influence of the upper low.
Otherwise, it should remain dry across east central Florida, with skies mostly clear and temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s most locations. Axis of high pressure ridge is forecast to drop in to the northern waters.
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ Mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights will continue across Southeast Texas for at least a couple more days with high pressure in control. Temperatures the last several days have been unseasonably cool, and this morning's readings (as of 3 AM) range from the low to mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast (normal low temperatures for September 10th range from the low to mid 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast).
The weak cold front that crossed the area overnight is lingering over south central and southeast Idaho, with scattered mid level clouds south and east of Mountain Home.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible today and Monday afternoon mainly along the higher terrain.
/issued 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ Thru Tue the mid level ridge will remain to NW-W of the CWFA thereby maintaining NE-N mid level flow. Models hint that mid level moisture may finally wrap around the wrn periphery of ridge Sat-Sun and that temps will cool off on Sun.
An upper ridge will move over Western Washington through tonight. An upper trough will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers midweek. Skies will clear today and upper heights will rise as a ridge moves over the area. The ridge is keeping a rather wet frontal system with heavy rain directed into British Columbia.
Expect a repeat today with plenty of sunshine and high temps in the lower and mid 80s. High temps Mon wl be a few degrees cooler due to the incrs in clouds fm the E.
Quiet, seasonable weather will continue today as a mid-level ridge remains in place across the Southern Plains.
The downward trend in shower/thunderstorm activity will continue today with chances becoming limited to mainly southeast California and the high terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona.
1024 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes will keep dry conditions over the Ohio Valley today. As mid-level ridging moves to the east on Monday, the remnants of Hurricane Irma will move north into the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure was located over west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Ridging extended north into the central Rockies. West of the ridge: A closed low was located off the coast of southern California. North of the low, a deepening trough of low pressure extended along the coast of British Columbia south into Washington state. At the surface: A trough low pressure extended across the panhandle into eastern Colorado.
Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with trough dipping southward through eastern Montana and frontal boundary stretching through central into southwestern Montana. Upper level analysis places ridge over the southern plains into the central Rockies while compact low is now moving near far northeast South Dakota into western Montana. Otherwise, mainly quiet weather prevails with southerly winds ahead of the trough.
1143 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the start of the week before rain chances return with approaching low pressure. Departure of trough over New England and building high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will maintain dry conditions with a slight moderation in temperature. Expect highs to be warmer than yesterday but still a touch below seasonal averages. High pressure should maintain dry weather through Monday.
By Sunday afternoon and evening, a noticeable inverted trough begins to develop into western Kentucky in advance of the main circulation of Hurricane Irma in Florida.
The clouds and showers are associated with an area of warm advection tied to an upper low lift through eastern South Dakota.
In the upper levels, there hasn't been a lot of change, high pressure/ridge axis remains centered over the central/southern High Plains, with areas of low pressure just off the southern coast of CA and the far northeastern CONUS, along with Hurricane Irma affecting southern Florida. At the surface, southerly winds remain gusty at times, with the CWA set up between high pressure over the Great Lakes region and a trough of low pressure along the High Plains.
1150 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure centered over northern Michigan and southeast Canada will continue drifting east-southeast today. The ridge axis will remain nearly stationary stretching across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri today. Think the combination of easterly flow and the overall cooler atmosphere should translate in to cooler highs today. Wind will likely become light and variable or go calm late tonight as the ridge axis drifts to the west.
1114 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 An upper level low will exit across the maritimes today and tonight.
Ridging from the surface to 250 mb will remain over Texas.
Farther north, models indicate a swath of 850 mb winds of 65-80 kts during the late afternoon and evening over East Central and Northeast Alabama, and this could be particularly problematic in the higher elevation areas.
The low level jet is still in place however, and mixing a few hours after sunrise will allow for that gustiness to reach the surface. The next aspect is the cold front upstream, or more importantly the source region of the airmass that follows. High pressure will be directed out of Montana later today, a source region that has very dry air as well as smoke thanks to the areas wildfires.
Warm and dry conditions continue as high pressure remains stretched across the area. Overnight lows, however, will remain noticeably cooler with lows dipping into the mid 60s to lower 60s in low-lying areas.
1032 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area today and strengthen through the upcoming work week.
High pressure at the surface is centered over the Great Lake Region and Hurricane Irma is moving into the Florida Keys this morning. Through the mid lvls a north flow remains in place over the local region between Irma and a ridge over the SW states. Today and Monday Irma will move north along the west coast of Florida while a breezy north to northeast flow remains in place locally between the cyclone and a ridge to the north. The cool ridge of high pressure to the north will continue to provide slightly below normal temperatures while the deep north flow keeps the area dry.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Latest analysis shows upper ridge remaining anchored over west Texas early this morning, with Hurricane Irma heading northwest toward the Florida Keys, and an upper low off the southern California coast. At the surface, a ridge extends southwestward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley down into central Texas.
Upper ridge was in the process of being flattened and pushed into the Dakotas this morning. This will allow a relatively flat trough to move across southern Canada today. A cold front has already pushed through in response to this process, so high temperatures today will be 5-10 degrees cooler with north to northeast winds. The upper ridge builds back up for Monday, allowing for warmer and drier conditions. The first part of the week is still dominated by a ridge over much of the Rockies.
1024 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into eastern CO.
Have raised winds and forecasted lows in exposed areas, especially along the Buffalo Ridge. Quiet weather pattern will continue into the mid range forecast, as upper level ridging dominates much of the central and western US.
Dry and warmer today for areas along and west of the Red River Valley, where skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day. Behind this boundary, winds will shift to north- Northwest and will decrease, with cooler and noticeably drier air moving in. As the remnants of Hurricane Irma meander through the Southeast, a strong ridge builds over the Rockies and Northern Plains for the first half of the week.
706 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area today and strengthen through the upcoming work week.
Some gusts in the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau could exceed 55 mph based on forecast soundings and 925mb winds.
1039 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure, with cool, dry air, dominates through tonight.
650 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The quiet weather continues as mid-level ridging and limited low and mid level moisture will result in another dry forecast for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will be similar, perhaps a couple degrees cooler in some areas, as H85 temperatures run about 1C cooler than yesterday. The next notable shift in the pattern arrives late in the week as the Intermountain West ridge breaks down and gives way to a healthy trough projected to eject into the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas. While the best dynamics and attendant best chance for precipitation will remain well to the north/west, our forecast area may see just enough upper support, warm air advection, and forcing along a cold front to see a few periodic chances for scattered precipitation.
1258 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the start of the week before rain chances return with approaching low pressure. Departure of trough over New England and building high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will maintain dry conditions with a slight moderation in temperature. Expect highs to be warmer than yesterday but still a touch below seasonal averages. High pressure should maintain dry weather through Monday.
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Dry weather is expected through Monday under high pressure.
The sunshine is attributed to high pressure centered in the Great Lakes, with the ridge axis extending to the SW across Illinois. Still, sunshine will prevail, helping to counteract the cooler easterly flow that will continue today and tonight. Weather across the Midwest remains mild and dominated by a 1032mb high pressure centered over lower Michigan this morning. Moisture streaming into the region as the remnants of Irma break into the ridging in the northeastern US turns into precip chances in the models for the last few runs up and down the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures are a little modulated in that time frame as well under shower chances, narrowing the diurnal swing with slightly cooler days/warmer nights.
657 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Little change from persistence/going forecast with highs edging slightly warmer each day.
1055 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Another beautiful morning across the region this morning, with sfc ridging again remaining in place from the OH Valley SW into Cntrl TX. Meanwhile, 15-16Z temps are running nearly the same if not a degree warmer areawide that what was observed 24 hours ago, which should result in similar if not slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to control the weather across the Ozarks region and will remain in control for the end of the weekend.
East to northeast winds will be 5 to 15 mph, with the highest over eastern areas with a bit more pressure gradient field.
There is a possibility for some morning frost across extreme northeast Wisconsin, however current temperature readings are still solidly in the lower 40s across that area. Otherwise, high pressure will stay in control of the weather across the western Great Lakes through early in the work week, bringing a period of dry, quiet weather to the region as temperatures slowly warm with winds turning southerly today, then southwesterly by Monday. By Monday highs are expected to be in the lower to middle 70s, with highs around 70 near Lake Michigan.
High pressure will build back over New Mexico from west Texas today.
607 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into eastern CO.
Dry air and high pressure over the region is leading to sunny skies most all areas of nrn Michigan. No real changes through Monday as the high pressure roams the Great Lakes. Highs slightly warmer Monday in the lower half of the 70s most areas. Large area of strong high pressure providing clear skies. clear skies will continue today and tonight as that area of high pressure holds overhead. with temps just a bit warmer. with overnight lows cooling into the low to mid 40s tonight.
A cold front was located well off to the west but will move into northwest Minnesota late Sunday night then convergence along the front will weaken as it continues through the area on Monday. There will also be a chance for showers over northwest to north central Minnesota later tonight as the cold front approaches. Highs today will be in the seventies for most areas but be cooler along the North Shore. There will be a chance for showers on Monday over portions of the Northland as the cold front continues to move through.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A cold front is moving through Eastern Montana early this morning. The cold front has brought smoke from Western Montana wildfires to the east overnight and with northwest winds some this smoke will linger over Northeast Montana for most of today. Upper trough will move across the Canadian Prairies today and flatten the ridge into a zonal flow aloft over Montana. Surface Temperatures will be somewhat cooler but still above normal with highs in the 80s. High pressure will be over Eastern Montana tonight with clear skies. Dry weather with continue with somewhat warmer temperatures.
915 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east early this week and become nearly stationary over New England.
As of 08z Sunday morning, the cutoff upper low across the northern Plains continues to rotate about its axis. At the sfc, high pressure continues to reside across the Great Lakes region.
748 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Based on observed temperature trends yesterday across western and central North Dakota and eastern Montana, and expected mixing with the passage of the cold front, did increase highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most of western and central North Dakota. This is closer to the warmer edge of the 00-06 UTC global suites and the rapidly updating suite through its 11 UTC iteration. Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with trough dipping southward through eastern Montana and frontal boundary stretching through central into southwestern Montana. Upper level analysis places ridge over the southern plains into the central Rockies while compact low is now moving near far northeast South Dakota into western Montana. Otherwise, mainly quiet weather prevails with southerly winds ahead of the trough.
712 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east early this week and become nearly stationary over New England.
Weak upper low remains in the area early this morning, with an overall warm air advection pattern in place. Otherwise, once we get past the rain, it will be a fairly decent day, with temps in the lower to mid 80s, and breezy southerly winds 10 to 25 mph.
A big high pressure system has settled over the central Great Lakes and there it will stay for the next few days. Today's highs will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with lows tonight similar to what we saw this morning.
/issued 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ Broad UA ridging extending from the Southern Rockies to across the Southern Plains early this morning, has resulted in northerly flow aloft dominating across the Four-State Region. Concurrently, sfc ridging draped from the northeastern CONUS to across east TX will aid in maintaining northerly-northeasterly sfc winds, whilst a slightly tightened pressure gradient this aftn /and again tomorrow aftn/ may result in wind speeds of 10-15 mph. Given the aforementioned synoptic and mesoscale features, a continued cool airmass will remain in place, with daytime temps only warming into the lower to middle 80s today and tomorrow /some 5-8 degrees shy of seasonal norms/.
Dry and quiet weather is expected through Monday night under the influence of high pressure.
That feature has produced periods of showers and storms just to our west for the past 24+ hours, but in an area of much better instability that simply doesn't exist over in our direction, courtesy of entrenched drier air with low level ridging sliding toward the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise, very quiet into Monday night as broad low level ridging dominates the area as upper ridging becomes more entrenched along the northern tier of states, north of the remnants of Hurricane Irma. Simply put, our local weather stays quite marvelous! Still not much to discuss for the later periods as broad upper ridging dominates our area while Irma's remnants lift toward the Ohio Valley, all while a renewed surge of low level ridging slides down in our direction.
Upper level trough in the eastern Dakotas was producing an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms across nw IA/sw MN. 3 am temperatures ranged from the upper 40s east to the lower 60s in our sw cwa. Upper level trough shifts eastward while dampening out as it runs into ridging to north of Cat4 hurricane Irma located about 70 miles sse of Key West, FL.
1025 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will build north of the area through Monday.
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure centered over northern Michigan and southeast Canada will continue drifting east-southeast today. The ridge axis will remain nearly stationary stretching across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri today. Think the combination of easterly flow and the overall cooler atmosphere should translate in to cooler highs today. Wind will likely become light and variable or go calm late tonight as the ridge axis drifts to the west.
916 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 An upper level low will exit across the maritimes today and tonight.
1250 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east early this week and become nearly stationary over New England.
214 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper trough Saturday possibly brings a shower to northern areas.
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will move slowly east across the area late tonight, then stall just east of Long Island on Saturday.
401 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A sharp upper level trough will push through the region today bringing isld showers to the area and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Upper level ridging looks to be in place for Eclipse Day leaving our region dry.
Temperature-wise am expecting maybe a degree or two cooler today most areas away from the coast as per model 2 meter and 850mb temperatures.
458 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
430 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The weather pattern featured low pressure over southern California and a broad area of high pressure extending from the southern Plains west-northwestward across New Mexico to the western Great Basin. The low over southern California erodes the high over the region to some degree on Sunday. A slow moving old closed low will settle over southern California and high pressure will consolidate over Texas.
As a sharp mid level wave exits to the east early this morning, high pressure will take charge, providing a quiet day with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will hold sway in the lower levels, but its position to our east will allow for return flow with low-level thermal and moisture advection later in the day. The high's residual influence combined with low-level capping and the lack of a clear trigger support maintaining a dry forecast despite the arriving wave aloft.
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 (Today and Tonight) Rain chances continue to gradually diminish across West Central Texas as an upper level high across Southeast Texas strengthens. Overnight lows tonight dropping into the low to mid 70s.