Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tuesday will not be much different than today, however- simply a degree or two cooler than today.
Deep-layer quasi-zonal flow will be in place Wed as the region remains on the nrn side of sern-CONUS high pressure and to the south of the nrn-stream mid-level jet. With increased cloud cover and the prior day's widespread showers and storms, temperature on Thu will be considerably cooler than prior days. Troughing is expected to persist across the Great Lakes late in the week. High pressure will then build across the region Fri/Sat downstream of a mid-level ridge.
Active troughiness with deep moisture around the periphery of the persistent mid level ridge over the MidSouth will continue to weaken the ridge through tomorrow.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the evening through early Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across deep South Texas. /issued 219 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The latest 500 mb pattern shows a general weakness in the ridge pattern over the state as a weak disturbance concentrates along the upper Texas coastline. The NHC is tracking this disturbance, and has given a low chance for tropical cyclone formation. At the surface, sub-tropical high pressure centered near Bermuda continues to stretch from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
1041 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days.
The upper level ridge will weaken and flatten over the region on Tuesday for slightly cooler conditions.
1055 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. By daybreak expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern during the middle of this week. Subsidence underneath this feature will limit thunderstorm activity to the afternoon and evening hours with initiation in the favored areas of the higher terrain of SC/NC and along the sea breeze front.
1018 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A stationary front south of the Ohio River will pivot back north as a warm front on Tuesday.
JKL A cold front moved through the forecast area this morning, with northwest winds and below seasonal temperatures today. Heights build for Tuesday and warmer temperatures will take over. Model clusters were in decent agreement with a SW flow over the area ahead of a western split trough until Monday, when solutions were all over the place.
936 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern this evening, leading to dry weather and calm winds. MUCAPE values are getting closer to 2000 J/kg, but this is assuming that the stratus associated with the low is able to clear out in the afternoon to coincide with peak daytime heating.
412 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A warming trend will take place early this week as an upper level ridge pushes through the area.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): A relatively flat mid-level height field will lie over the area in the short term, with broad high pressure at the surface. High temperatures will remain in the 90s east to the low 100s out west the next couple of days under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Tropical cyclone formation probability in the next 48 hours is rated as low.
Variable cloudiness expected early this morning with low temps from near 60F in the normally colder spots across the northern tier to the low 70s in the lower Susq Valley metro areas.
Late this afternoon, the upper high is shifting to the southeast and as a result, more convection is ongoing across southern KY and into northern portions of the mid state.
102 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 A stationary front south of the Ohio River will pivot back north as a warm front on Tuesday.
Our region will lie between a western Atlantic ridge axis lying across the Gulf coast region and lower pressure in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a fairly deep easterly flow through the period.
411 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will move across the state today keeping the area dry through early night. Highs today will be seasonable in the lower 80s except upper 70s near the Huron shoreline as surface winds will be easterly. Showers and a few thunderstorms will lift through the area with the warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue until cold frontal passage which will be during the early and mid afternoon time frame. Skies will begin clearing quickly behind the cold front from a good surge dry low and mid level air.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with highs in the low 90 and lows in the low 70s.
346 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will build over the area today and tonight.
An elongated mid level ridge remains in place from the Four Corners region back into central Nevada. A weak upper trough which has been developing over the lower Colorado River Valley during the past couple of days is expected to slowly lift northeastward through midweek.
Broad ridging and associated anticyclonic flow remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS with a wobbly inverted trough stretching from coastal TX north to the Red River area and another trough noted across the Plains. The stronger trough to our north will be more supportive of higher convective coverage, so included scattered mention over northern AR through evening. Wednesday will be pretty close to a copy/paste kind of forecast with active troughing N/NE and S/W. The only notable difference: a stronger trough appears to ride up the western side of upper ridging and traverse the Sabine River Valley into the ArkLaTex, so did increase PoP accordingly over W/SW AR, but still thinking we will only see scattered coverage at best.
As we are still under high pressure and we have plenty of low-level moisture, expect fog to develop again, especially in valleys in NE Alabama near bodies of water. Highs today will generally be in the lower 90s. High pressure over the region will continue to gradually weaken as activity to the north tries to break down the ridge. With weakening high pressure over the Tennessee Valley, expect more and more afternoon thunderstorm activity over the next couple days. Broad-view look at the CONUS shows an amplifying ridge over the central CONUS which will play a role in our weather going into the weekend. As the ridge builds up, it shoves the amplifying upper-level trough east into the New England states.
242 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. Another typical Summer day is expected today under the influence of the persistent upper ridge anchored over the southeast and Carolinas. Temperatures today may be slightly cooler than yesterday but not by much as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s again. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern during the middle of this week. Subsidence underneath this feature will limit thunderstorm activity to the afternoon and evening hours with initiation in the favored areas of the higher terrain of SC/NC and along the sea breeze front.
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern this evening, leading to dry weather and calm winds. MUCAPE values are getting closer to 2000 J/kg, but this is assuming that the stratus associated with the low is able to clear out in the afternoon to coincide with peak daytime heating. Wednesday should start to clear up as the trough moves out of the area and a ridge dominates over the Northland.
334 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Much of the same will occur today as the region will be on the western side of an upper ridge that is centered across the Atlantic. Temperatures today will once again rise into the lower and mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s.
Overnight tonight mean 500h trough currently to our west moves over the area which should enhance convection toward morning, especially over the northern sections.
Variable cloudiness expected early this morning with low temps from near 60F in the normally colder spots across the northern tier to the low 70s in the lower Susq Valley metro areas. Max temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still above average for late July. Highs is the low 90s for Harrisburg and surrounding areas will be the 14th day of 90+ this month. Max heat index should peak in the upper 90s across the lower Susq Valley. It will also remain very warm and humid with above average temperatures and peak heat indices in the 90-100F range from the south-central ridge and valley region into the middle and lower Susq Valley.
Mid and upper level ridging will persist, the strength of which is not sufficient to result in either abnormally hot temperatures or a strong capping inversion. Low to mid level instability axis is progged to extend from Lubbock and Plainview northeastward toward Childress this afternoon with decent theta-e convergence just upstream from (north of) the ridge axis. Broadening of the mid- and upper-level ridge is expected to continue through the latter portion of the week, with return flow persisting across the forecast area. The weakening of the ridge will keep high temperatures in the lower 90s on the Caprock, and in the middle and upper 90s in the low Rolling Plains. The highest temperatures progged for Lubbock and Childress this week is 93 and 98 deg F, respectively. Enjoy the "cooler" theta-e air this week! Sincavage.
Mostly VFR through the period, however with some MVFR (possibly IFR) fog tonight at TYS and TRI given rainfall last evening, with the high confidence at TRI. Another day of convection is expected, perhaps with better coverage as the ridge migrates east, thus all sites feature VCTS mention with PROB30s for TSRA, timing based on CAM consensus. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 74 93 74 92 / 50 20 70 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 93 73 92 / 40 30 70 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 94 73 93 72 92 / 40 20 70 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 70 91 69 88 / 50 30 70 30 70.
With the low rain chance and low confidence in placement, not carrying a mention in the TAFs at this point. Lows overnight will again be in the lower 70s, with highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday.
332 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will move across the state today keeping the area dry through early night. Highs today will be seasonable in the lower 80s except upper 70s near the Huron shoreline as surface winds will be easterly. Showers and a few thunderstorms will lift through the area with the warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue until cold frontal passage which will be during the early and mid afternoon time frame. Skies will begin clearing quickly behind the cold front from a good surge of low and mid level air.
Otherwise, diurnally driven convection expected again on Wednesday with only widely scattered coverage areawide as upper- ridge begins to become better established areawide. Temperatures to again climb into the lower 90s. Upper-level ridging, highs temperatures in the mid-90s, and afternoon thunderstorms all walk into the Four-States region. Different day, same forecast as upper-level ridging stands firm.
159 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather through Tuesday then the high will move east and the chances for rain increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
A deep-layer ridge remains across the Deep South, centered generally over the western Atlantic with light, east-southeasterly low-level.
144 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will build into the region today and provide the North Country with a good deal of sunshine, no precipitation, and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
The Southeast United States and subsequently our region is still enveloped in a deep upper level ridge. A strong upper level ridge will remain centered north of the area with easterly flow prevailing at the surface and aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day with the highest chances across the southern half of the area where slightly greater deep moisture exists. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
This feature will maintain dry weather into Tuesday evening with very comfortable temperatures in the lower 80s (upper 70s Thumb) and not particularly humid conditions. Southwesterly flow in advance of this wave will push a warm front northeast into the area overnight Tuesday night with shower/thunderstorm chances increasing with time as lift from this front increases during the course of the night. Warmer and much more humid conditions are ushered into the area on Wednesday with the warm frontal passage with mid 80s common for high temperatures and surface dew points in excess of 70F over at least southern portions of the forecast area. This air mass will yield SBCAPE values near 1500 J/kg assuming convection along the warm front progresses to the northeast during the morning hours.
Clear skies and generally light winds to prevail through the evening and much of tomorrow under E-W elongated ridge centered off the coast. Tuesday likely to be our warmest day under the ridge, with a good swath of the lower Columbia Basin in the triple digits and mountains in the mid to upper 80s. From broader view, weak disturbance passes to our N tomorrow before a more potent trough phases somewhat with California low Wed and sweeps over the region by late Thu. Upper ridge with dry northwest flow aloft tonight. Approaching upper level trough Tuesday. The trough will move into the Pacific northwest on Wednesday. Partly cloudy skies and cooler with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. There is some support from the jet and upper trough.
High temperatures today will likely be a bit cooler than the past couple days due to increased cloud cover.
High pressure will dominate today's weather with seasonable temperatures. No strong surface features appear to be available to trigger a specific time of day but in general the lowering upper heights will combine with diurnal heating to increase coverage through the day. Cloud cover Wednesday may limit how warm it can get in the afternoon but even with clouds most locations should get into the low and mid 80's.
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 East/southeast flow continues over the peninsula south of deep- layer ridging across the western Atlantic and southeast CONUS and broad upper troughing extending north out of the Caribbean along with a tropical wave traversing the Straits. Wave moves away from the peninsula Wednesday with Atlantic high pressure returning, although moisture remains in place with winds slowly decreasing as the gradient in the wake of the wave gradually relaxes. Afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s can be expected with immediate coastal locations topping out around 90. Wave departs Wednesday although showers and thunderstorms will remain possible daily with easterly flow persisting into the weekend as high pressure returns over the waters. Passing tropical wave enhancing showers and storms today into Wednesday, followed by high pressure and easterly flow into the weekend with showers and thunderstorms possible daily.
This convection will initiate prior to dry mid-level air mixing to the surface and eroding the lower tropospheric Gulf moisture.
As the high pressure over SE MT builds, the boundary along the divide will push southwestward into Sweetwater County to bring an end to the west wind by 9-10 pm. Ridging looks to build in across the region for Wednesday, however, the transition to southwest flow will bring the first chance for widespread precipitaion in awhile.
242 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2020 08z surface analysis had low over west central MN with trailing cold front into northeast CO. Wednesday, upper level ridge builds into the northern plains in response to upper through over the west coast. 850-700mb thermal ridge builds into the CWA with warmer temperatures.
Upper ridging will continue to slowly shift east with weak westerlies prevailing across the Mid-South through at least mid- week. Temperatures during this time will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the low to mid 90s. By late week into the weekend, ridging to to our west, across the Southern Plains and Mississippi River Valley, will gradually start to amplify. If upper ridging does amplify enough heat indices may go beyond 105 in more than a few localized areas across the Mid-South.
1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 An upper trough in the northern stream will push a disturbance through the area tonight. A weak cold front, and likely outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will also move through. Slightly warmer in the mid 80s, with upper 80s far southwest.
On the synoptic- scale, a mid-level weakness/subtle trough across the area will gradually move to the east. Convection should slowly shift southward through the day with perhaps some decrease in coverage as the mid-level trough moves eastward. Given the the decrease of insolation due to increased cloud cover, also trended toward the cooler end of guidance for high temperatures.
236 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Upper heights begin to build across the region today for a mostly dry and warmer day. Upper ridge at it's peak over us on Wednesday for what could be our warmest day of the summer so far with highs around 100.
1224 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will persist this week. Beach communities will be hard pressed to drop below 80 degrees with heat indices holding in the lower 90s.
334 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Weak upper ridging continues through the period. As has been the case over the past several days, this upper ridging not strong enough to suppress diurnal convection given the strong surface heating again today and Wednesday. As mid and upper level ridge gets shunted west, a NW flow regime develops across the area which will aid in the progression of backdoor front through the northern sections.
Tonight into Wednesday, cooler temperatures prevail with overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 50s with northwest flow aloft and easterly winds at the surface.
A weak low pressure area of 1012 mb has formed in the NW Gulf. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the evening through early Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across deep South Texas. /issued 219 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The latest 500 mb pattern shows a general weakness in the ridge pattern over the state as a weak disturbance concentrates along the upper Texas coastline. The NHC is tracking this disturbance, and has given a low chance for tropical cyclone formation. At the surface, sub-tropical high pressure centered near Bermuda continues to stretch from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level trough is expected to track across the northern Great Lakes Region and Canada border today. High pressure will begin to build back into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. Temperatures will remain pleasant with highs climbing into the lower 80s for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
This low pressure area will move into the Victoria Crossroads before daybreak and then drift northwest of this area during the morning hours.
High pressure will dominate today's weather with seasonable temperatures. During this period a broad upper level trough moves through.
High pressure settles across the region for the day Tuesday, and dry conditions are expected as a result. Below average temperatures (highs in the mid-70s to low 80s) are forecast as well, under lower heights aloft from the passing trough. By Wednesday, a low amplitude upper level ridge begins to shift east and amplify as it does so across the Northern Plains.
As the trough moves across the area on Tuesday we expect showers and thunderstorms to continue. We remain in a marginal risk for severe storms on Tuesday, which seems appropriate given the high shear/low CAPE scenario conditional on diurnal destabilization. Fairly extensive stratus cloud cover will be the limiting factor to instability, however, but models do indicate some scattering of the low clouds during the afternoon hours which could instigate stronger storms. However this will not last, as southwest flow aloft becomes prevalent atop a building central CONUS ridge.
1147 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days.
This will allow for temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s. We will see the low level jet increase some again as we head through the late evening and overnight hours resulting in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the night.
339 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. Another typical Summer day is expected today under the influence of the persistent upper ridge anchored over the southeast and Carolinas. Temperatures today may be slightly cooler than yesterday but not by much as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s again. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Ridging at the surface and aloft will persist over the western Atlantic, resulting in strong subsidence and a southerly low-level return flow.
By Tuesday, the disturbance is expected to continue moving inland across Texas, with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms across all of SE TX and W/SW LA, still healthy chances for the remainder of the area. As the mid to upper level ridge prevails across the Southern and Eastern U.
No real changes from the previous couple of forecast packages as models have been pretty consistent showing a weak boundary off to our north, coupled with a weakened ridge aloft, providing hot, muggy temperatures but a better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening this week. Temperatures are running a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday morning, but it does look like we'll be able to get some patchy fog development prior to sunrise again.
/Issued 418 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020/ For today and tonight, the broad upper level ridge of high pressure which covers the southern half of the United States will persist through tonight. This will result in one more day of just enough favorable west to west northwest favorable steering flow aloft across the OK and TX Panhandles to bring showers and tstms into our region from the higher terrain of southeast CO and eastern NM.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are critical fire weather days due to the low RH, strong gusty outflows, and scattered thunderstorms. Wednesday should see some cooling due to the greater cloud cover but highs will still be in the upper 80s to the low to mid 90s.
A low pressure system just off the California coast will turn flow more easterly today. That being said, the lower atmosphere's pump will already be primed from earlier precipiation.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 60s to mid 50s in southwest Minnesota, making it a pleasant night for opening the window and giving the air-conditioning a break. Further west, over central South Dakota, the pattern will begin changing as a strong warm front moves eastward.
Max temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still above average for late July. Highs is the low 90s for Harrisburg and surrounding areas will be the 14th day of 90+ this month. Max heat index should peak in the upper 90s across the lower Susq Valley. It will also remain very warm and humid with above average temperatures and peak heat indices in the 90-100F range from the south-central ridge and valley region into the middle and lower Susq Valley.