Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
They are moving very fast and if any more sprinkles fall, they shouldn't be much of an issue, as the further south they get, temperatures are above freezing. The warm frontal boundary will push through the CWA today, leaving mild temperatures in its wake. Daytime highs should range from around freezing in the northern valley to the upper 40s in southeastern North Dakota. Less overnight sky cover tonight as well as weak NW winds will bring overnight lows into the teens and twenties, about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning. High pressure moves over the area Tuesday, with lighter winds and cooler afternoon highs, mostly in the 30s with far northwestern MN staying below the freezing mark.
Northwest flow aloft persists in the wake of upper level troughing exiting the eastern U. Lows tonight bottom out in the lower to middle 30's for most locations, with middle to upper 30's across coastal areas. The light winds and surface wetbulb at or below freezing should allow for the development of frost, patchy along the coast and areas of frost anticipated inland.
A cold front will weaken as it moves through today with southerly winds gradually transitioning to mostly northerly late today into early Tuesday.
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Today will feature a fairly significant warmup compared to yesterday as westerly winds at 850 mb advect in much warmer air, with 850 mb temperatures increasing by nearly 10C compared to yesterday.
205 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Early this afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by broad northwest flow across a majority of the CONUS, with troughing centered over the northeast. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northeastern Wyoming, with a weak cold front moving through the southern half of the forecast area. Breezy west- northwest winds will continue through the afternoon, with mild afternoon highs ranging from the lower 40s in the Turtle Mountains area to the upper 50s in the southwest. We'll have another relatively mild day on Tuesday for the last day of November, with a warm front drifting east through the day.
310 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with temps ranging from the low 40s across our NE to the upper 40s across our SW. Given the high bases and a very dry low level airmass in place (Tds in the teens), think we'll continue to leave any sprinkle mention out of the forecast.
After sunset through tonight, temperatures will remain mild again, above freezing at most locales, in the 30s. Associated dry cold front will swing through SW KS Tuesday morning, followed by an uptick in breezy northeast winds. Models only project weak cool advection behind this front, enough to trim afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon, still well above normal.
A few spots over southeast North Dakota have risen into the lower 50s, while Flag Island on Lake of the Woods is at 28 degrees. Most of the period will be dominated by northwesterly flow aloft thanks to upstream ridging.
146 PM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the next 36 hours around the high amplitude pattern, with ridging to the west and troughing across the eastern third of the US. The passing of the wave will knock a couple degrees off the record-setting warmth the past several days, but highs will still be in the 50s east of the divide, and the low to mid 40s for western valleys.
As a cool, dry airmass builds into the area tonight with high pressure, the main concern will be the potential for another round of frost and freeze conditions. Reality usually verifies on the cold side of guidance in these situations for low temperatures, particularly across the Florida big bend, so the official forecast is in the low end of the guidance suite for tonight. For Tuesday, high pressure will continue across the area with sunny skies.
For Tonight, the center of high pressure will settle just to the northwest. This will allow temperatures to fall off overnight, with lows from the lower 30s inland, to the middle 40s at the beaches. While just a few sites may briefly touch freezing before sunrise, the potential for freezing inland is significant. Broad ridge of high pressure will be across region Tuesday, with sunny skies anticipated. For Tuesday night, the high pressure ridge will start to build more toward the east. This will bring a light west southwest return flow, which will bring in a few more clouds, and provide a little warmer night.
Low level CAA will be gradual on Tuesday with surface ridging drawing closer to the area towards evening.
Lows will be in the low to mid-40s in Lake and Volusia counties, around the mid-40s across the interior, and in the mid to upper-40s along the Space and Treasure Coasts. High pressure builds into the southeast U. Highs will be in the low 70s. High pressure over northern FL will remain in the area through Thu night. Then it will be a few degrees warmer the following morning.
With the Clipper still sitting north of the region, surface WAA is keeping temperatures from falling too quickly during the overnight period, with temperatures by sunrise likely sitting above freezing for most, while locations in central South Dakota will likely already be in the mid 40s. Temperatures aloft begin to cool slightly during the afternoon which begins to put a damper on the WAA, but regardless peak afternoon temperatures will see vast majority of locations in the low to mid 60s, with only a handful of locations stuck in the upper 50s north of I-90. As our Clipper moves eastwards by the afternoon hours, a cold front will be moving down from the north.
Temperatures should easily reach the low 70s across most of the area below 7,000 ft, with 50s in the mountain valleys. Tuesday, there will be a breezy northerly flow over the plains and slightly cooler temperatures behind a weak disturbance passing through the west-northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will still remain well above normal, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the plains and upper 30s to lower 50s in the high country.
Weak onshore flow will return tonight as high pressure shift east, increasing moisture across South Texas. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures will continue overnight Tuesday, with lows generally in 50s across the area.
253 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 Large trough over eastern CONUS continues to slide east and take on a more negative tilt. Cold front associated with the system has cleared the area, bringing in seasonable temperatures. Aloft, a layer of very dry, relatively warmer air is in place just above the cold air mass that slid in with the cold front. Afternoon heating has allowed for mixing of very dry air and stronger winds, bringing Tds into the teens and lower 20s across the area, sending RHs well into the lower 20s in many areas. At the surface, flow should become more westerly to WSWerly as high pressure center sinks to the south.
We should be done with freezing or subfreezing temperatures for a while. Temperatures will trend warmer through the work week.
1125 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 18Z TAFS High pressure overhead will maintain clear skies and light, variable winds through the day and overnight. /issued 911 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021/ High pressure nearly overhead today will maintain light winds and mostly clear skies.
Overnight low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. A weak frontal boundary across the Red River Valley of north Texas into Oklahoma will provide enough shallow instability to generate partly cloudy skies across the region on Tuesday with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Quiet weather pattern with upper level ridging in the western states pushing the storm track to the CAN-US border. After this passes, the ridge returns, bringing clear skies everywhere and afternoon highs as much as 10 to 20 degrees F above normal for the time of year. The upper level ridge has also produced stagnant air conditions, which means little to no wind reaching the surface.
An upper level trough will move through west central SD tonight and may bring a few light sprinkles/showers to central SD, especially south of Pierre. Best chances for more than a trace will be east of the James Valley Tuesday evening, but it does look like any precip will remain all rain except, perhaps, for the highest points of the Coteau.
Weak mid-upper level high pressure will be situated over west Texas through the next several days.
We will see a couple weak troughs over the next two afternoons but they will be moisture starved and no pops will be included.
NW flow continues to persist aloft as upper level troughing is in place to the NE with a ridge axis over the SW CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to dominate with light winds. Dewpoints have fallen to the upper teens across much of the area which has lead to RHs generally in the low to mid 30s. In general, expect high temperatures roughly 10 degrees warmer than that of today.
1016 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS upper ridge continuing to dominate our weather, with next short wave nearing the Pac NW. At the surface, trof has pushed into the eastern Dakotas. Another very mild day in store for today with upper ridge overhead and breezy downslope flow. Aforementioned short wave will quickly ride atop the ridge tonight and push a cool front through the area. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 40s/50s. Warm advection will quickly ensue Tuesday night as upper ridge rebounds in wake of departing short wave.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) This afternoon, an upper low is churning over Baja beneath persistent ridging over the western CONUS, with a deep trough extending southward along the East Coast. Tuesday will be similar to today as downsloping southwesterly surface flow continues, with highs expected to reach into the lower to middle 70s most locations, with upper 60s in the mountains, and lower 80s possible through portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
Meteorological Analysis: Unseasonably warm weather will continue through tomorrow (highs in the upper 60s and 70s) as westerly 850mb flow brings much warmer air.
Sufficient radiational cooling and a weak push of cooler air will lower temps close to (or just above) seasonal lows by Tuesday morning. Areas along Hwy 40 can expect a subtle drop in daily highs Tuesday afternoon, in response to the weak clipper and closer proximity to the cooler air mass. In fact, some lower valleys in southwest Colorado and southeast Utah may see a slight uptick in daily highs, due to cooler air aloft relaxing the broad inversions overhead. High pressure will remain centered over the Great Basin at the midweek point with weak northwesterly flow persisting aloft across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
This has also increased or fire danger level today into the high to very high category but still short of critical values.
Broad upper ridge over the western US will flatten today and tonight as a weak Pacific trough passes through the northern part. The trough will bring a chance of light rain and snow to Baker and Valley Counties this afternoon, then exit east this evening. The broad ridge will rebuild off the coast Tuesday. The weak upper trough, Tuesday's WNW flow aloft, and morning valley fog, should lower high temps slightly today and again on Tuesday. But the main issue continues to be air stagnation under the broad upper ridge.
(Through Tonight) Mild and dry overnight with sustained southerly winds ahead of a weak cold front which will move into NE OK Tuesday morning.
It will be sunny and warmer, in the lower to mid 70s, with a dry atmosphere in place. Weak mid-upper level high pressure will be situated over west Texas through the next several days.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A beautiful end to November is upon us with high pressure and light onshore flow turning southeasterly, keeping high temperatures near normal today and a degree or two warmer tomorrow. A warmer night is expected Tuesday night under a few more clouds with lows into the 60s and patchy fog once again forming across portions of the ranchlands.
229 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Tonight a weak cold front will pass through our area.
911 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure nearly overhead today will maintain light winds and mostly clear skies.
257 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 -Cloudy and cooler for Tuesday.
High pressure residing across the region where a cool dry airmass currently exists, will yield sunny skies and highs in the low and middle 60s. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. With southerly flow, overnight lows will be a little warmer than previous night ranging from the mid to upper 30s. The result will be challenges on where and how far a cold front will push over the weekend.
1002 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 Cool high pressure will settle over the region today. Expect a gradual warming trend to above normal daytime temperatures beginning Tuesday along with occasional afternoon breeziness as the high pressure shifts offshore. Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies but some higher clouds are expected to cross the region later this morning as the upper trough axis approaches.
A surface cold front stretching from central Minnesota west/northwestward through the Dakotas and into Montana and 2. Otherwise, the cold front will also bring in some cooler air, with temperatures on Tuesday topping out in the 50s.
Mid level WAA AC clouds are now beginning to push east of the CWA, with the advance of the surface and mid level warm front. Dry conditions are expected tonight as the cold front passes through the CWA. While this will shift winds to the northwest, the surface moisture will actually be higher behind the front, as dewpoints rise to the lower to mid 30s. Given the higher dewpoints, there will be a pretty good frost in protected locations north of I-80 tonight. This is likely due to more saturation being analyzed in the low-levels. Some snow may mix in for areas north of Hwy 30 where wet bulb temps in the low-levels will be closer to zero, but any accumulation will remain around or below a tenth of an inch.
1256 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure will dominate on Monday with tranquil weather over the Ohio Valley. As we get on the back side of the high, the flow will begin to back around to the west with some mid and high level clouds spreading in through the day. We will remain cool with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s in parts of the north to mainly the lower 40s elsewhere.
218 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Another day of well above normal temperatures with some mid/high clouds overhead across the High Plains. However that will be changing by tonight with short wave energy from the PacNW rounding the top of the western ridge as high pressure at the surface moves into the upper midwest and pushes a weak cold front into Nebraska. Temperature profiles and overnight surface temps in the low/mid 30s will favor rain and although a wet flake or two may be possible up around the Pine Ridge the probability of wintry precipitation is not high enough to mention. Any scattered showers end later Tuesday morning with a brief cool down behind the front, though readings will still remain above normal with highs Tuesday generally in the low/mid 50s.
A continued period of quiet weather is expected through the week with high pressure remaining in control. Dry conditions and light winds are expected as a result, along with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal.
210 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Another day of well above normal temperatures with some mid/high clouds overhead across the High Plains. However that will be changing by tonight with short wave energy from the PacNW rounding the top of the western ridge as high pressure at the surface moves into the upper midwest and pushes a weak cold front into Nebraska. Temperature profiles and overnight surface temps in the low/mid 30s will favor rain and although a wet flake or two may be possible up around the Pine Ridge the probability of wintry precipitation is not high enough to mention. Any scattered showers end later Tuesday morning with a brief cool down behind the front, though readings will still remain above normal with highs Tuesday generally in the low/mid 50s.
A few high clouds may work their way into North and Central Texas as an upper low churns off the coast of Baja California. High pressure centered over the southeastern US will allow for gradual warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture as southerly to southwesterly winds prevail over the next few days. Highs in the low 80s are likely in some locations, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor, which is roughly 15-20 degrees above-normal for early December.
Precip will likely be snow in the high elevations of the northern Black Hills where up to an inch will be possible. Mild but semi- breezy conds will continue Tue with slightly cooler temps than today. Mean upper trough in the NE PAC will shift east and force the downstream ridge east Wed-Thur. This will allow even warmer Pac downslope air into the region, with widespread 60s expected on the plains for highs both days, with 70s expected on much of the SD plains Thur when the thermal ridge will time over the region.
Latest runs of the models along with GEFS and EC ensemble members currently suggest the higher chances for pcpn will be across the north - locally I-90 northward. TEMPS: looking at a bump in the flow/broad upper level ridging for the middle part of the week, with highs expected to reach/exceed 50 for some locations. That said, a smaller subset still points to stronger ridging off to the west, and thus a stronger trough dropping across the Great Lakes. As for temps, cooler weekend still favored, but mostly just back to the seasonable normals. Winds will become W/NW behind a cold front this afternoon/early evening with a few gusts up to 20 kts, especially at KRST.
322 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 The frontal boundary moved through the Keys this morning and ushered in a dry and cooler air mass.
1251 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 Cool high pressure will settle into the region today. Expect a gradual warming trend to above normal daytime temperatures beginning Tuesday along with occasional afternoon breeziness as the high pressure shifts offshore. Thin, high clouds orographically forced off the Appalachians will be the only clouds present and may keeps temps a degree or two cooler than would otherwise be.
A dry cold front is still forecast to move through this evening, weakening overnight, mainly during the late overnight hours.
1012 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Continued warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow on the leading side of the ridge aloft flattens across the forecast area today with the approach of a short wave trough embedded in the flow that moves across the forecast area early Tuesday. Another couple of short wave troughs move over the forecast area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with another weaker ridge over the western U.
A few high clouds may work their way into North and Central Texas as an upper low churns off the coast of Baja California.
224 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Modest upper level ridging overhead this afternoon will give way tomorrow to a weak upper level trough moving in from the northwest. This change will have only minor implications on tomorrow's weather compared to today, mainly the introduction of a weak cold front into the northwestern half of the forecast area. This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the northern half of the forecast area, generally 2-5 degrees cooler than today's highs, while south of the front pretty close to status-quo conditions are expected with mild temperatures and relatively light southwest winds persisting. An upper low remains in a blocking pattern over Baja while the FA remains mostly under ridging aloft through late week.
A ridge of high pressure now over the lower OH and MS valleys will settle into the area through the day. Although temperatures are starting off quite chilly in the upper 20s to middle 30s, they will quickly rise into the lower 50s by early afternoon for highs. With the low wind speeds and nearly full sunshine (just a few high thin clouds), today will be nearly a repeat of yesterday, just not quite as warm. As the center of the high shifts to the ESE, our winds will veer to a southerly direction by this evening and overnight hours. This will make for a milder night across the area as lows will run about 8-10 degrees warmer than last night.
high pressure at the surface will slide east of the region overnight into Tuesday as flow aloft begins to subtly flatten. Therefore, under mostly clear skies tonight, lows will be chilly and range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
After lows in the low to mid 30s tonight, highs will be around 50 degrees on Tuesday.
Temperatures have already dropped down into the low to mid 30s as of the most recent obs. Low level westerly winds are expected to continue during the day on Tuesday, as high pressure remains over the area.
A low pressure system bringing light snow to northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will make a swift exit overnight tonight. Tuesday is quiet and a little cooler under the northwest flow, with highs a little closer to normal in the low 30s.
A strong area of high pressure remains parked over the eastern Great Basin this afternoon with little to no change expected going through the next 48 hours.
850 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure remains over the Tennessee River Valley this evening. Temperatures will trend warmer each day with only slightly cooler conditions returning over the weekend. No freezing or sub freezing temperatures are expected.
Overall, this is indicative of the area of high pressure with the lingering inversion and strong marine push that came through last night.
235 PM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Continued warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow on the leading side of the ridge aloft flattens across the forecast area today with the approach of a short wave trough embedded in the flow that moves across the forecast area early Tuesday. Another couple of short wave troughs move over the forecast area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with another weaker ridge over the western U.
Look for overnight lows Tue night to be 4-7 degrees warmer than what we observe tonight.
This should advect some slightly warmer and more moist air into the Tennessee Valley in the low levels of the atmosphere. Low level westerly winds are expected to continue during the day on Tuesday, as high pressure remains over the area.
/Issued 253 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021/ Large trough over eastern CONUS continues to slide east and take on a more negative tilt. Cold front associated with the system has cleared the area, bringing in seasonable temperatures. Aloft, a layer of very dry, relatively warmer air is in place just above the cold air mass that slid in with the cold front. Afternoon heating has allowed for mixing of very dry air and stronger winds, bringing Tds into the teens and lower 20s across the area, sending RHs well into the lower 20s in many areas. At the surface, flow should become more westerly to WSWerly as high pressure center sinks to the south.
709 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure has built in over the southeast U.
Latest runs of the models along with GEFS and EC ensemble members currently suggest the higher chances for pcpn will be across the north - locally I-90 northward. TEMPS: looking at a bump in the flow/broad upper level ridging for the middle part of the week, with highs expected to reach/exceed 50 for some locations. That said, a smaller subset still points to stronger ridging off to the west, and thus a stronger trough dropping across the Great Lakes. As for temps, cooler weekend still favored, but mostly just back to the seasonable normals.
A weak cold front continues to push southward across KS with this front expected to move into NE OK by sunrise.