Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 312 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020/ The upper level high pressure ridge centered north of the Bahamas will continue to move east today keeping warm conditions in place across the peninsula. The southerly flow around the high will continue to bring moist air into the area with dewpoints near 70 degrees, which will make for a muggy and warm start of your Thursday. A low pressure trough and associated cold front will slide down and move across the state by later today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler as skies will be mostly cloudy for most of the day. Behind the front, an area of high pressure will build from the south and a cooler airmass moves into the area.
High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 20s east of a line from Trenton to Colby and Oakley east to the low and middle 30s along and west of the CO/KS border. Dry weather returns tonight with low temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero in the east to the low and middle teens elsewhere. Upper level ridging moves in ahead of an approaching upper level trough to our northwest. High temperatures are expected to range from the low and middle 40s across the east to the low and middle 50s along and west of the CO/KS border. A cold front moves through during the night as the upper level trough moves through.
Cold front continues to push south and hard to find this hour as most areas have decent northerly winds now. However, there is a cold front pushing through the area which has just reached a Katy to Houston IAH line this past hour. Skies should clear later this morning as the main upper level trough axis stretches/shears out. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley will keep bringing dry air into our region Friday night giving us another night of clear skies.
This trough is forcing northwesterly flow over the central Rockies and the existing moisture is precipitating out over some of the higher valleys and mountains. This evening a ridge aloft moves over the region as the next trough comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest. Despite this ridge the models show a relatively small decrease in the midlevel wind speeds, and also show an increase in moisture advecting in from the west. Tomorrow the Pacific Northwest trough will track over the northern Rockies and clip portion of northern Colorado.
Moderate rain training across the south/east parts of the mid- state will finally moving a bit faster east this morning, and is expected to continue, as a secondary cold front moves across the region this morning. An upper trough will follow on Friday.
Forecast soundings/time-height sections indicate that some low level moisture will linger through this morning so we could see a return of the occasional low ceilings before the low clouds completely end. The cold front that pushed through the area yesterday is stretched from Southeast Louisiana into low pressure in the Ohio Valley. A secondary front is dropping south across the central plains with a Canadian ridge crossing the border into the Dakotas.
430 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving south across the area early this morning. The front will usher in a dry and cooler airmass across the region, resulting in below normal temperatures today. Other than some morning low clouds expected over eastern sections this morning, skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 40s across the Big Country, to the lower 50s along the Interstate 10 corridor.
343 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Increased this mornings low temperatures on the Caprock as cloud cover associated with a broad trough axis extending from southern New Mexico north into Nebraska, has begun to spread over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains, limiting radiational cooling.
The low level jet will quickly bring warmer temps into the region allowing highs for Friday to reach into the teens and twenties above zero, although gusty winds will make it feel colder. This strong WAA also brings the chance for light snow, especially near the thermal ridge ahead of a cold front and mid level wave progged to pass through Friday night.
Arctic airmass continues to spread southward across the region this morning behind a cold front currently just south and east of the CWA.
This air mass has developed due to a very strong mid- upper level ridge stretching from the Bahamas out to Bermuda, along with a long fetch of southeast winds reaching deep into the Caribbean to source our air. The upper ridge is in the process of retreating southward a bit. This will allow the weakening tail end of the cold front over the north-central Gulf to pass the Keys on Friday evening, though a shift to light northerly winds will likely occur on Friday afternoon. The tail end of the front will be quite weak, with the heart of the cooler post-frontal air mass bypassing us well to the north.
A warm front will push across western and central North Dakota tonight as warm air advection strengthens via low level southerly flow. For Friday, increasing 700mb-500mb moisture across northwest and north central North Dakota will lead to increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. The cold front over the southern Canadian Prairies will push from northwest to southeast late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Highs Friday will range from the upper 20s east central to the lower 40s west.
MVFR cigs have continued this morning behind the departing cold front, reaching as far south as IAH. However, there is a cold front pushing through the area which has just reached a Katy to Houston IAH line this past hour. Skies should clear later this morning as the main upper level trough axis stretches/shears out. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley will keep bringing dry air into our region Friday night giving us another night of clear skies.
1008 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 High pressure continues to ridge in from the east, while a cold front located over the western panhandle of Florida moves eastward toward Florida. Showers associated with the cold front will move through the area later this evening into Friday. Daytime high temps are expected to reach the low mid 80's which is very close to record highs for some locations.
High pressure was centered over extreme southeast South Dakota at this time. The high will continue to move southeast tonight reaching the Mid Mississippi valley by Friday morning. This high will help clear skies across the entire Mid-South tonight. The high will start to move in a easterly direction on Friday reaching central Indiana by Friday evening.
Strong warm air advection will develop Friday as warmer air is drawn northward into the region. A mild Pacific airmass will filter in behind the trough with lows in the 20s.
1228 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Mild and breezy conditions today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thursday and Friday will see a cooling trend continue with onshore flow bringing cooler marine air.
1238 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Precipitation will diminish but not end completely today as a low pressure system moves off to our east. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon, bringing a chance for some additional rain and snow showers into early evening. Bands of snow, sleet and rain that produced some light accumulations this morning are moving east behind departing low pressure. A secondary trough axis/cold front will push southeast into our area through late afternoon. High pressure will shift east of the region Friday night.
The Arctic high will slide through eastern MO into OH and WV Friday as an upper trough pushes southeast through the region. The high will slide further east Friday night allowing for weak warm advection to develop.
Generally south winds today will become light southwest tonight into tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area. A cold front currently pushing through the Florida Panhandle will slowly push through South Florida tomorrow afternoon, with showers possible along and ahead of it. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front with low temperatures Friday night ranging from the upper 50s west of the Lake to the mid/upper 60s along the East Coast. With high pressure to the north, will bring an easterly flow, along with some showers to the east coast of South Florida, along with the Atlantic coastal waters.
229 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 A weak cold front that moved through the area this morning will keep temperatures below normal into tomorrow. Light winds and clear skies could allow for some patchy freezing fog to develop tonight in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin but it should get too dense or widespread to affect travelers.
Lake and terrain enhanced snow showers will accompany the brief cold snap with minor accumulations expected in the favored snowbelts and ridgetops. 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected across the favored Laurel ridges and NW PA snowbelt.
Cold front is currently located across the forecast area slowly moving eastward. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 28 46 25 51 / 80 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 28 42 25 50 / 100 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 27 43 23 50 / 80 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 28 39 22 47 / 100 10 0 0 0.
Heart of modifies Arctic airmass passes overhead tonight as ridge of high pressure settles in. "Warm" air advection takes over Friday with the departure of the High and heart of Arctic air. Fairly stiff southerly winds in the 10-20 mph range will keep going through Friday night with cloud cover increasing in advance of a mid- level trough/surface cold front progressing through the Northern Plains.
A cold day in store as an arctic high pressure center pushes across to the north pumping in much colder air into the high plains. Temperatures this afternoon will not be much colder than it is this morning if any at all seeing upper teens to near freezing northeast to southwest across the CWA. This will allow for a leeside trough to develop overnight and deepens during Friday morning due to diurnal trends and sinking surface pressure.
Dewpoints should be a bit higher than previously thought and lows tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous forecast.
1033 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Wintry precipitation is expected today with crossing low pressure. A brief period of freezing rain/drizzle remains possible in some locations, as model soundings show an hour or two where ice crystals may be lacking aloft, but expect any impact from this to be minor. PoPs will increase again tonight with the approach and passage of a more significant cold front. The upper trough and a more potent cold front will drop south out of the Great Lakes tonight, providing increased chances for snow showers. After FROPA, lake effect showers will continue within cold NW flow into the day Friday, favoring the I-80 corridor and the eastern ridge tops.
Cold front has pushed east of the area and is aligned over the southeast US. The ridge slides east across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday night. Colder tonight with lows dipping down into the lower to mid 30s over the interior northwest with lower to mid 40s east of I-65, southward to the coast. Clear skies and light to calm winds Friday night favor excellent radiational cooling processes with lows sinking into the lower to mid 30s for most areas north of I-10 with patchy frost also being possible.
Went on the lower end (25th percentile) of our suite of guidance for low temperatures tonight which has temperatures ranging from near zero over central MO to ten degrees F/lower teens along the OK and AR state lines.
Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over ND, with frontal boundary south and west of the region. Warmer air will arrive in earnest tonight and Friday, with lows bottoming out in most areas during the evening and temps rising overnight as south to southwest winds increase.
A weak vorticity max within the trough as seen on the latest NAM run could produce some light snow flurries across portions of northwest Oklahoma late tonight.
A weak upper ridge moving across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today will be accompanied by dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
Will also hold VCSH at all terminals after 15Z with an approaching cold front. /issued 1008 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020/ High pressure continues to ridge in from the east, while a cold front located over the western panhandle of Florida moves eastward toward Florida. Showers associated with the cold front will move through the area later this evening into Friday. Daytime high temps are expected to reach the low mid 80's which is very close to record highs for some locations.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ The long wave trough overhead will continue to shift east through mid-day on Friday while high pressure builds in at the surface. Temperatures tonight will get below freezing with much of the area in the mid to upper 20s. The high temperatures on Friday will struggle to 50 degrees for many parts of the region. Then, low temperatures for Friday night will once again get to or just below freezing.
Will maintain this low level cloudiness into or through the afternoon before finally eroding. Forecast soundings/time-height sections indicate that some low level moisture will linger through this morning so we could see a return of the occasional low ceilings before the low clouds completely end. The cold front that pushed through the area yesterday is stretched from Southeast Louisiana into low pressure in the Ohio Valley. A secondary front is dropping south across the central plains with a Canadian ridge crossing the border into the Dakotas.
Surface pressures will be rising as high pressure of Arctic origins builds into the region tonight. With NW orographic lift along the mountains and shallow moisture, may have some light snow shower, flurries, and rime ice across the higher elevations of the mountains above about 5000 feet this afternoon and evening. Only around a half-inch or less of snow is expected across the highest elevations of the mountains.
343 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 A chilly westerly flow behind departing low pressure may bring a few snow showers tonight. High pressure and a cold, dry airmass will arrive on Friday.
While some moderation is expected in the brisk southerly flow on Friday, the snow covered areas will temper the warm-up, though most areas should climb just above freezing in the afternoon.
1128 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Have pushed back the breaking out of the low cloud/MVFR ceilings to the late afternoon hours. /issued 1014 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020/ Forecast concern of the day looks to be when the low level clouds will erode.
236 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Upper ridging extending from Cuba northeastward over the Bahamas shifts southeast over the next couple of days. An upper trough extends from the western Great lakes southwest through the central plains. This trough approaches the east coast on Friday lending support to the next weather system to move through Florida.
The development of patchy freezing fog (FZFG) will be possible during the overnight hours on the Caprock, potentially affecting the KLBB and KPVW terminals with visibility reductions into the IFR category. /issued 343 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020/ Increased this mornings low temperatures on the Caprock as cloud cover associated with a broad trough axis extending from southern New Mexico north into Nebraska, has begun to spread over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains, limiting radiational cooling.
Cold front is currently located across the forecast area slowly moving eastward. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 46 25 51 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 42 25 50 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 27 43 23 50 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 39 22 47 32 / 10 0 0 0 10.
Another frigid day is expected Friday despite the return of sunshine and lighter winds as arctic high pressure settles over the state. Temps will also drop as a cold arctic high pressure area settles over the state.
244 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 (Tonight and Friday) This afternoon, a cold front was located across south central Texas. Tonight, high pressure over the Central Plains will move eastward, allowing winds to turn out of the east and southeast.
1232 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Wintry precipitation is expected today with crossing low pressure. A brief period of freezing rain/drizzle remains possible in some locations, as model soundings show an hour or two where ice crystals may be lacking aloft, but expect any impact from this to be minor. PoPs will increase again tonight with the approach and passage of a more significant cold front. The upper trough and a more potent cold front will drop south out of the Great Lakes tonight, providing increased chances for snow showers. After FROPA, lake effect showers will continue within cold NW flow into the day Friday, favoring the I-80 corridor and the eastern ridge tops.
223 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Low clouds have been holding on across the northwestern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains behind the cold front that has pushed across the region. Surface flow will remain out of the east to southeast across the area through tonight into tomorrow morning and model soundings show this, combined with weak isentropic lift, will likely help produce patchy freezing fog or low clouds across the Caprock for Friday morning. Will continue mention of this possibility through the overnight hours but it may need to be adjusted to start earlier and end later if some of the higher-resolution model soundings are correct. Areas that have been under the clouds today have struggled to climb above freezing, especially where snow remains across the northwestern South Plains.
231 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 A cold front is making its way through Western Kentucky at this time. Northerly winds on the east side of a Northern Plains high pressure system in an upper-level trough are bringing cold temperatures from Canada. Friday will be a transition period as the high pressure system and upper-level trough slowly move eastward.
1130 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Arctic high pressure will continue to settle southward into the area today, with the core of the coldest air being situated over the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley region. Temperatures will respond accordingly under the increasing southerly flow, with afternoon highs into the lower 40s over south central SD - then trending downward to the east to mostly 20s through our MN/IA zones. It will become windy during the day - this due to a tightening surface gradient as a trough approaches from the west and winds at the top of the mixed layer running around 40 kts.
1014 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Forecast concern of the day looks to be when the low level clouds will erode.
At the same time, though, moistening will occur in the low-mid levels through this evening ahead of a PV anomaly that is currently digging south along the Front Range of the Rockies.
Clearing in the afternoon expected to allow the northwest half of the forecast area to warm into the lower- to mid-50s, with eastern sections mainly remaining in the 40s.
1123 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Mild and breezy conditions today ahead of an approaching cold front.
1150 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Arctic cold front has moved through the area this morning with gusty north winds and very cold wind chills (single digits north; teens central).
1046 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery loop revealed a upper trough axis from southeast Canada through the Great Plains, with upper ridges offshore both coasts. The exception will be over the higher terrain along and south of the CO border where orographic flow will produce some snow showers.
254 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 Cold high pressure will quickly shift east tonight and be replaced by a strong southerly pressure gradient at the surface. The wind will remain fairly strong Friday evening as a cool front/trough axis moves into the area.
1255 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 A cold front will move through today. Dry and cooler high pressure builds into the area tonight into the weekend. Light to moderate showers will then persist behind the main convective line and ahead of the cold front for several hours.
238 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 A cold front will move across the area from the west this evening. Dry and cooler high pressure builds into the area tonight into the weekend. A deep positively tilted trough is positioned across the central U. At the surface, a cold front remains west of the area this afternoon, but should move through during the evening hours, shifting to the east overnight. A cooler airmass will advect into the area tonight as surface winds continue to veer.
With strong NW flow and very cold airmass filtering in from the NW the left over moisture in the lowest levels still squeezing out some precipitation. Local radar and observations in the past hour showing patchy Light rain/drizzle still occurring across parts of NE TN early this evening from the cold air advection behind cold front and approximate 030 foot ceiling. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 46 26 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 42 23 52 35 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 27 43 22 51 35 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 39 16 48 30 / 20 0 0 0 10.
Warmer air begins to get pulled into the region on Friday, and will see a fairly quick warm up, with highs in the 20s and 30s Friday afternoon. The warmer air will remain in place Friday night, with temperatures only falling into the lower to mid 20s.
322 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2020 High pressure will remain in control of our weather heading into the weekend with dry and mild weather.
/Updated at 1143 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020/ Cold air advection continues across much of Central Alabama as of midday following passage of the cold front.
These will move off to the east this afternoon but with surface temps above freezing no impacts are expected. Overnight, snow flurries will move off to the east and high pressure will build into the region. High pressure will continue to build into the region for Friday with mostly sunny skies.
The one positive with the light wind speeds will be the lower wind chill values, as minimum apparent temperatures shouldn't fall much lower than the actual temperatures. The high shifts to the east on Friday, with southerly winds returning.
344 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2020 Strong upper level ridging will build over the state tonight, drying out the airmass and bringing an end to the precipitation across the forecast area. Some web cameras are showing lingering snow showers over peaks and ridges this afternoon as the northwesterly flow aloft is lifting moisture that has been trapped in the mountain valleys. Showers and wind should decrease tonight as the high pressure ridge builds over the state. The main impact from the building ridge will be strong warming, with highs on the plains reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s, despite the recent snow that remains on the ground. There will be a weak upper trough to move across the CWA Friday night mainly producing strong downsloping winds.
Tonight and Friday Lake-enhanced clouds and perhaps a few flurries should dissipate during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level winds back to the west and the arctic ridge of high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes.
Nwly sfc winds will become light by early evening, while polar high pressure over the nrn Great Plains will move to the MS River Valley by 12Z Fri. Swly winds and warm advection will begin Fri afternoon and increase Fri nt as the polar high moves east and strong low pressure tracks across srn Canada.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect starting at 5pm MST (4pm PST) and continue through late tomorrow afternoon as an energetic, but quick moving weather system brings several inches of fresh snow to mainly the higher terrain.
A cold front is making its way through Western Kentucky at this time. Northerly winds on the east side of a Northern Plains high pressure system in an upper-level trough are bringing cold temperatures from Canada. Friday will be a transition period as the high pressure system and upper-level trough slowly move eastward.