Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Monday/ Key Messages: -Showers Linger Through Evening Then Storms Along Southern Border Tonight -Another Chance for Sub-Severe Storms Tuesday Night -Mostly Quiet Through End Of Week and Weekend Our location along the southern edge of the upper level trough to our north continues to bring the state cooler temperatures and periodic shower and storm chances. The associated cloud cover and cold air advection have kept temperatures cool, currently sitting in the low to mid 70s across the state. Convection is expected to increase in intensity later tonight as the surface boundary continues to creep north and the low- level jet begins to crank up, increasing the forcing along the boundary.
(This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as an upper level ridge continues to dominates our weather.
306 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region into Tuesday.
Early tonight the stalled frontal boundary just south of the Missouri/Arkansas border will begin to slowly lift northward as a warm front. With PWATS in excess of 2 inches and increasing WAA as well as isentropic ascent due to the low level jet, expect very efficient rainfall rates with showers and storms that develop on the nose of the LLJ over northwestern Missouri and slide eastward north of the front. Also, the highest axis of qpf extends from Monroe County MO southeastward to Fayette County IL with between one and three inches in this area, though locally higher amounts are possible. Temperatures through the short term will remain near normal with lows in the low 60s to low 70s tonight and in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday night.
High pressure will push southeast overnight, with southerly winds ushering in a slightly warmer and more humid airmass for Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will develop to our northwest tomorrow afternoon along a cold front, and then move east-southeast toward the region tomorrow evening.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) While upper-level ridging remains steadfast, the pattern overhead should resemble more of a zonal flow.
With a high pressure approaching from the west, these cu fields will not amount to any precip, but should help keep highs from getting out of the low to mid 70s today. As the high passes south of the UP, west-southwesterly to southerly flow will set up for tomorrow morning.
249 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cold front is moving through the area and will be east of us by tonight.
High pressure will move out this evening with generally dry conditions except for some showers possible in parts of southwest Minnesota. This is more tied to the previously mentioned upper low. There is also a cold front moving across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest that will provide some additional forcing for some heavier showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms.
Highs should range from the lower 80s across northern Missouri to the middle 90s over EC Kansas and WC Missouri.
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Discussion/Marine - Mostly Cool and Dry Weather This Week - Most of this week's weather will be the result an usually deep eastern North American trough. In fact the M-Climate return interval for having an upper trough this deep is one day in 2 years. The short term ridge between the two of them bring us a cool and clear night tonight.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
203 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 The local weather tonight and tomorrow will continue to be driven by the upper level ridging spanning across the southern CONUS. Otherwise, little variation in the position and strength of the upper level high will keep us dry and hot in the short term. The western perimeter of flat elongated subtropical ridging will begin weakening by midweek, with the core of upper level high pressure over AL/GA gradually being pushed southeastward in response to amplifying flow over the north-central CONUS. A separate upper ridge axis over the Great Basin will also strengthen during this period, with monsoonal moisture over the desert southwest being reinforced through the rest of the week by a continuing series of easterly waves transiting through northern Mexico.
358 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A broad area of high pressure is building from the Midwest into Lower MI this afternoon and tonight. The inbound air mass is cooler and less humid but still able to support a bloom of shallow cumulus with boundary layer mixing also resulting in NW wind gusting around 20mph. High pressure remains in control of conditions Tuesday with about a category of upward temperature modification expected despite some reinforcement of high clouds in the afternoon. These clouds precede greater amounts of moisture return Tuesday night as the next low pressure system arrives in northern Ontario. This system has a cold front extending into the northern/central Plains.
Forecast highs were nudged down a bit for this afternoon as cloud cover and rain is expected off and on all day as a cold front dips southward. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 90 74 90 / 40 30 50 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 72 87 72 88 / 60 40 60 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 72 86 72 87 / 70 40 60 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 70 84 70 85 / 70 50 70 30 60.
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A very typical summertime tropical pattern will prevail over the coming week, as the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge will be the primary driving mechanism of sensible weather over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. What is realized day to day will be dependent on perturbations moving along the base of the ridge.
122 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today through early Tuesday.
Inland temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but onshore winds will result in slightly cooler readings along the lakeshore. This disturbance is expected to invigorate a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet tonight across the Lower Missouri Valley. We thus continue to advertise the highest POPs in this area, with generally little to not rain expected along and north of I-80.
The majority of the high clouds were along and north of the boundary. Temps at mid morning ranged from the upper 80 north of the boundary to the low/mid 90s south of the boundary.
The upper ridge associated with the extreme heat will be suppressed to our south by a broad trough across the north-central and northeast states. Various waves will move through the trough and interact with the frontal zone.
453 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler, albeit seasonable weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with wetter weather returning by mid-week. Precipitation continues to shift out of the Upper Ohio Valley in wake of a weak cold front that pushed through earlier.
1156 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler, albeit seasonable weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with daily rain chance. The aftn update featured further POP, wind, and sky adjustments as the cold front has shunted showers and isolated storms south and east of MGW. Lingering showers and storms will continue until the frontal passage across the ridges and deeper in WV later this aftn. Otherwise, building high pressure with cold, and dry advection will support more seasonable temperature behind the front, and cumulate in a quiet overnight period.
Once the showers/storms attached to this upper circulation run their course through late this evening, a cold front over northeast Montana will work down across the CWA late tonight through about mid- day Tuesday.
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will continue to push through southern Vermont this evening bringing continued showers and isolated thunderstorms; some may be strong.
125 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cold front drops through the area late this afternoon into the evening hours with moderate jet support aloft. Precipitation amounts are likewise to be on the lower side with a tenth to a quarter of an inch at the upper bounds for locations that get right under a storm or two. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are on tap for Tuesday with cyclonic flow aloft over the area behind the cold front.
126 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions will continue to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
209 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A Canadian cold front is expected to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North Central and Central Montana this evening.
253 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with a cold front bringing in showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. Widespread rain will occur Tuesday as a cold front moves through, but there definitely could be areas that don't see much while others wallow in amounts up to an inch.
Forecast highs were nudged down a bit for this afternoon as cloud cover and rain is expected off and on all day as a cold front dips southward. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 74 90 73 / 30 50 10 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 87 72 88 73 / 40 60 20 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 86 72 87 72 / 40 60 20 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 70 85 69 / 50 70 30 60 40.
An upper level low over eastern MX is evident on GOES-16 Water Vapor imagery this afternoon and is moving further west. This will allow for high pressure to build in over TX this evening.
On Tuesday a large upper level low begins to deepen over central Canada while drifting slowly to the south and east. The surface reflection in the form of a cold front will track through the Northern Plains during the day, with the frontal boundary pushing into our CWA sometime after 15Z.
318 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A broad upper ridge continues across the southern states.
Clouds will increase throughout the late morning and afternoon, both from some daytime cu development and an approaching cold front from the west. Better chance of showers and a few storms heading into Tuesday night with a slight increase in instability and arrival of the cold front and better upper dynamics. Meanwhile, temps will be warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The blocking high pattern over the West Coast shows no sign of breaking down as surface pressure gradients from KSFO to KLAS at around 2mb as surface winds remain very light. Rex blocking pattern over the Eastern Pacific will help maintain the triple digit temperatures observed over the Central California Interior over the next seven days (ending at the start of August).
728 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Aviation - Mostly Cool and Dry Weather This Week - Most of this week's weather will be the result an usually deep eastern North American trough. In fact the M-Climate return interval for having an upper trough this deep is one day in 2 years. The short term ridge between the two of them bring us a cool and clear night tonight.
8" tomorrow, and mid level ridging becoming more meridional.
Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of this stretch with sfc boundary remaining to the north and a bit of a southwest component to the low level wind fields.
626 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler, albeit seasonable weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with wetter weather returning by mid-week. Precipitation continues to shift out of the Upper Ohio Valley in wake of a weak cold front that pushed through earlier.
High pressure will continue to build into the Pacific Northwest, bringing us a stretch of hot weather inland this week. The coast will be cooler thanks to onshore marine flow. Troughing will be in place for the weekend for cooler temperatures and stronger onshore flow.
This will continue to keep temperatures right around 100 degrees today and tomorrow in the low valleys, and in the upper 80s in the Sierra.
745 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure will prevail into the weekend. High pressure will prevail aloft and at the surface. A cold front will approach the region late week and into the weekend but is expected to stall just north of the area. This evening and tonight: The sub-tropical ridge will be the main feature, as it continues to build over the western Atlantic. The Waterspout Index for early in the morning looks to be in the low category, so no mention in the Hazard Weather Outlook at this time.
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with a cold front bringing in showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. Widespread rain will occur Tuesday as a cold front moves through, but there definitely could be areas that don't see much while others wallow in amounts up to an inch.
857 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will over southern PA will slip south of the Mason/Dixon Line tonight, followed by much drier and cooler air. High pressure will build into the region from the midwest for Tuesday.
1036 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will continue to push through southern Vermont this evening bringing continued showers and isolated thunderstorms; some may be strong.
817 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will push southeast out of the area this evening, brining much drier air. High pressure will build in from the midwest for Tuesday.
1047 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Currently - A robust Atlantic pressure ridge extending westward through northern Florida and along the gulf coast is producing mostly moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Healthy ridging will continue across northern Florida through the overnight period. Overnight lows not convectively disturbed will be in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A ridge across northern Florida will maintain moderate mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
The main driver of this increase in monsoonal flow and moisture taking place this week over the southwest is the presence of a high pressure system centered towards the east. Being on the western fringe of this high allows for sufficient flow of moisture from the south.
At this point, most of southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona is pretty heavily worked over with a cooler and more stable surface airmass in place, though some lingering light showers persist. Further south, a few stronger cores persist as the last remaining bits of surface based instability are used up along the lower Colorado River.
/issued 318 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ A broad upper ridge continues across the southern states.
/issued 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): As an inverted trough continues to move westward into Northeast Mexico today, the mid level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Southeast will take over and dominate the local weather through the rest of the short term. PoPs are even less on Tuesday as subsidence from the mid level ridge will make it even harder for convective initiation to get going.
This will keep low temperatures a just a few degrees warm: in the 60s across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high country. Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler behind the front. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s across the plains and mostly 60s and 70s in the high country. There will be good instability over the high terrain but it will be more stable across the plains behind the front.
A Canadian cold front is expected to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North Central and Central Montana this evening.
1032 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure will prevail into the weekend. High pressure will prevail aloft and at the surface. A cold front will approach the region late week and into the weekend but is expected to stall just north of the area. This evening and tonight: The sub-tropical ridge will be the main feature, as it continues to build over the western Atlantic. The Waterspout Index for early in the morning looks to be in the low category, so no mention in the Hazard Weather Outlook at this time.
* None A broad area of high pressure is building from the Midwest into Lower MI this afternoon and tonight. The inbound air mass is cooler and less humid but still able to support a bloom of shallow cumulus with boundary layer mixing also resulting in NW wind gusting around 20mph. High pressure remains in control of conditions Tuesday with about a category of upward temperature modification expected despite some reinforcement of high clouds in the afternoon. These clouds precede greater amounts of moisture return Tuesday night as the next low pressure system arrives in northern Ontario. This system has a cold front extending into the northern/central Plains.
733 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will continue to push through southern Vermont this evening bringing continued showers and isolated thunderstorms; some may be strong.
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler, albeit seasonable weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with wetter weather returning by mid-week. Temperatures will be near climo, ranging from the mid 50s in the typically-cooler spots towards the Allegheny NF to the mid 60s across the Mon Valley.
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will continue to push through southern Vermont this evening bringing continued showers and isolated thunderstorms; some may be strong.
705 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region into Tuesday.
842 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A Canadian cold front is expected to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North Central and Central Montana this evening.
Given the upper levelridge that exists just north of the GA border, it is likely to continue to fall apart before ultimately being pulled off to the east. The surface and upper level ridges have moved a bit further south so they will allow a bit more moisture to move into N GA through the short term than earlier expected. Temps Tonight and Tuesday night will dip down into the lower 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the NE GA mountains.
/issued 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ The local weather tonight and tomorrow will continue to be driven by the upper level ridging spanning across the southern CONUS. Otherwise, little variation in the position and strength of the upper level high will keep us dry and hot in the short term. The western perimeter of flat elongated subtropical ridging will begin weakening by midweek, with the core of upper level high pressure over AL/GA gradually being pushed southeastward in response to amplifying flow over the north-central CONUS. A separate upper ridge axis over the Great Basin will also strengthen during this period, with monsoonal moisture over the desert southwest being reinforced through the rest of the week by a continuing series of easterly waves transiting through northern Mexico.
We do not expect smoke to mix into the lower layers at all. An area of low pressure in the mid-levels off the California coast and high pressure over the desert Southwest is creating a funnel to push mid-level moisture from Southern California toward Northern California. The area of low pressure that is creating the funnel will also be the arbiter of lift. By midweek high pressure will dominate the area bringing a slight warming trend with temperatures popping to a few degrees over average. KSFO Bridge Approach.
No change in placement for the ridge axis, so east, southeast flow continues.
The ridge starts to expand a little Wed/Thu warming things up slightly but still a little below normal for coast/valleys as onshore flow remains fairly strong. Ensembles in good agreement on the upper level pattern going into the weekend showing the high building over northern California into the Pac NW with slightly lower heights over southern California.
1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region into Tuesday.
High pressure to the west will nose into the Upper Great Lakes, and take control of the weather for the next 24 hours. Looked through for radiation fog chances, but it seems that with current dewpoint near 50, and the low temperatures expected in the lower 50s, that there will be little chance for it.
Weak upper trough pushing across the peninsula westward with some cooler temps aloft (-9C at 500mb). Highs reaching the lower to mid 90s.
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as an upper level ridge continues to dominates our weather.
445 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) While upper-level ridging remains steadfast, the pattern overhead should resemble more of a zonal flow.
641 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A trough is positioned from Hudson Bay to the Mid Atlantic while a wave is passing through the Plains. There is a cold front hovering near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Cloud cover across much of the state combined with the cooler air contrasting to locations south of the front is resulting in a wide range of temperatures from the upper 60s in north central to around 100 degrees in south central and southeast portions of the state.
243 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front into northeast Wyoming through northwest South Dakota. Scattered/isolated thunderstorms continue in vicinity of cold front. Cold front continues to drop southward today and will be through the forecast area by early afternoon. High pressure settles in over the Northern Plains tonight with seasonably cool temperatures. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as upper low stalls out north of the Great Lakes. As eastern trough weakens, western CONUS ridge breaks down allowing the hot airmass to spread back into the plains.
There is a possibility for better chances of rain on Wednesday as the upper level high retreats eastward into Southeast CONUS as a result of an upper trough propagating east from the Northern Great Plains into the Western Great Lakes region and an upper trough moving from the eastern Gulf waters into the central Gulf of Mexico. Models do show some pockets of drier air passing through the area during the day and depending on where the Gulf trough "sits" during the day, rainfall amounts for some areas could be limited. Warm and calm conditions expected Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and the low 80s along the coasts.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was located near the Oklahoma and Kansas border with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing well north of it. With the low level thermal ridge positioned more across northern Oklahoma, the hottest temperatures should occur across north central Oklahoma during the afternoon.
(Today through Wednesday) Tuesday looks to be another hot and dry day, followed by a "cooler" day Wednesday with better chances for showers and storms, mainly across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Sub-tropical high pressure aloft continues to dominate our weather pattern, and in combination with dry soils, above normal temperatures will result. Even so, highs will climb into the upper 90s across the Hill County to the lower 100s elsewhere, with peak heat index values in the 105 to 108 F range along the I-35 corridor and areas south and east.
417 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will ridge across the area from the Atlantic through the week and the weekend, keeping east to southeast flow in place with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each day.
1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) While upper-level ridging remains steadfast, the pattern overhead should resemble more of a zonal flow.
318 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A lower amplitude mid level westerly flow will continue to mark conditions through the midweek period, as the large scale pattern remains governed by extensive ridging from the western conus into the deep south and mid level troughing featured over south-central Canada. The influx of slightly higher dewpoint air will supplement daytime heating to offer a weakly unstable profile for a trailing cold front to engage during the afternoon and early evening period. Larger scale height falls arrive for the late week period, as a closed low ejecting across Ontario undergoes steady amplification with time.
After the fog burns off it will fair and cooler today.