Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRY NW LOW LVL WINDS ON SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND JOAQUIN FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LOWER PWATS SUBSTANTIAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP GENERATED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES IN BOTH STREAMS IN CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FORECAST TO BUILD TODAY. RIDGES SHIFT EAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST BC/YUKON WILL MOVE INTO ND AT 84 HOURS AND INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MAN. WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND WAS MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST.
235 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AS TROF APPROACHES. THERE IS GOOD QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF AND THE THINKING SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABILITY ISSUE. MEANWHILE DENVER CYCLONE INTENSIFYING WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ODDLY STRETCHED FROM HIGHLANDS RANCH AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST DENVER AND DIA. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING TOWARDS MORNING.
341 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL GIVE MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTH WILL MOVE MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL GIVE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ESPECIALLY THE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE BLOCKING PATTERN UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST.
1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 VERY LITTLE CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING TYPE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHG IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DOES DRIFT EAST. RIDGE POKING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES LITTLE. THEREFORE THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON NORTHWEST MN. OR MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN LOCALES WHERE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT AND A LITTLE STRONGER WIND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure is pushing east across the Great Basin. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure remains situated across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Isentropic lift was beginning to result in the development of a few showers across the western high plains early this morning ahead of the aforementioned western trough.
220 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN. BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY DUE TO THE DRYING OUT OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SE.
307 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER.
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT THIS COULD LESSEN UPSLOPE INFLUENCES AND TAPER PRECIPITATION OFF.
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COOL/STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS WRN QUEBEC.
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD COURTESY OF CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO.
AND A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH ALOFT HELPS TO GENERATE A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND JOAQUIN AND INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA TRANSITS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
The upper low will continue to spin over the Gulf Coast through the short term, sending surges of deep moisture westward across our CWA. A good fetch of Atlantic moisture moves in from the east on Saturday, combining with mid level deformation north of the parent upper low. Highs Saturday are expected to be cooler than today, with a continued steady NE wind. Look for highs only topping out in the low and mid 50s.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
This rain is associated with a plume of deeper moisture working NW across our area around the parent upper low centered over southern Alabama. The cutoff upper level low is currently centered over northern Alabama. At the surface we will be in between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the region. A couple of disturbances rotating around the upper low from east to west will potentially bring multiple rounds of showers. The highest pops today will be east of I-65. Temperatures today will be on the cool side topping out in the upper 50s to the east and the low 60s to the west where rain will hold off the longest.
122 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS STAYED PRIMARILY ACROSS MIDDLE TN ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW SITTING OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR STREAMING S THRU THE MS VALLEY AND WRAPPING BACK NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN GA AND NORTHERN AL. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS MORE LATITUDINALLY ACROSS SRN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE OWING TO TEMPORARY NVA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE CURRENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT/INVERTED SFC- 8H TROF AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ALSO PIVOTS WEST INTO GA AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN AL LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
443 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015 THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THE SECOND AND STRONGER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IS MORE OR LESS CENTERED ACROSS WEST TEXAS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS SSW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 70S TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING GRADUALLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY.
212 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 The very nice weather across the region will continue through tonight and for the beginning of the weekend as cool Canadian high pressure and short wave ridging controls the regions weather. Light breezes from the northeast will also continue with the high to our northeast. Temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 40s across the are tonight with afternoon highs on Saturday expected to be similar to today with highs in the 60s.
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS.
warmer under the clouds in the SE. Upper level low will continue to spread pcpn across the TN/KY valley Sat and Sat night, but should only affect eastern and southeastern parts of the CWA, mainly east of I-57.
256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A vort extension north of an upper low over the gulf coast states supported showers to our east most of the 1st half of the day. With the upper low continuing to spin over the Gulf Coast states this weekend, we will continue to see impulses rotate around the low, westward across our area.
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING FAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BENIGN PATTERN. HOWEVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING COULD BLOCK THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE AREA AS FAR AS RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE GOES. AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AROUND A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE UPPER LOW HELPING TO CAUSE THE RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN WY TO EASTERN MT. PROGRESSIVELY COOLING TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTY ZONES.
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA IS ROTATING INTO ARKANSAS.
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND 925MB TEMPS RISING A DEGREE OR 2 CELSIUS TONIGHT WILL OFFER LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH LIKELY LITTLE TO NO FROST OR FOG. THOUGH MEAN LOWS WILL BE IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE, THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT THERE BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.
/ISSUED 1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. HERE IN THE MIDSOUTH A FINGER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY AND MILD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS AND FLATTENS OUT. BUT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATES AS GUIDANCE GETS A BETTER HANDEL ON THE LOW. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
413 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ESPECIALLY THE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE BLOCKING PATTERN UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS WILL PERSIST IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALMOST GUARANTEE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS DRYING OUT. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK FROM EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN ND. COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH KCTB AROUND 07Z SAT.
AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WPC HAS NOW ANALYZED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 High pressure the dominant feature for the Midwest, with some mid and low level moisture moving in from the east. A blocky upper level flow pattern persists across North America, keeping area in a tight surface pressure gradient between high pressure centered over eastern Canada and the low pressure associated with Hurricane Joaquin. Strong upper level trof digging southward into the TN river valley and and central/eastern Gulf coast states with a 569 dm 500 mb low over AL. This deep trof to steer hurricane on northward journey and likely keep it off shore.
359 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIURNALLY DRIVEN LGT RN SHWRS OVR THE N SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET AS A S/WV-UPPER LOW OVR ERN QB MOVES ESE INTO THE MARITIME PROVS OF CAN. THIS BAND OF RN WILL THEN CONT TO MOVE FURTHER S AS THE STALLED FRONT JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME BEGINS MOVG SWRD AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. RESULTING IN A FCST OF ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEG WARMER OVR THE COLD NW VLYS TO ABOUT 3 DEG COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. A MORE DEFINED PATTERN OF RIDGE/VLY RADITIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS SHOULD EMERGE BY ERLY SUN MORN.
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AS A RIDGE MOVES IN OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR DOWN. SAT NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
343 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 DRY PATTERN CONTINUES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 50S FAR WEST TO LOWER FAR EAST 60S. FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND TROUGH TRYING TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND BRINGS WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TAF SITES KPSC AND KYKM AND KDLS AFTER 06Z. A WEAK TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Also, sw mid level flow will tap into moist Pacific air, evident in the form of a 5h theta-e ridge axis. Furthermore there will be the opportunity for minor shrtwv trofs to move thru the sw flow aloft. Although convective trends will tend to decrease into late Sat night there is some indication that convection may renew (Trans Pecos/SE NM) toward 12Z with another shrtwv trof.
ONE BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BC THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TO HELP REDEVELOP SHOWERS.
High temperatures today will be a tad cooler than yesterday, and about 5 degrees below normal for early October.
HIGHS TO DAY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WELL INLAND AND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
Short range models indicate a southwest flow aloft developing across the Western High Plains tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure edges eastward across the Central and Southern Rockies. Additionally, a +70kt upper level jet climbing northeast out of the trough axis will shift east out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of Colorado and western Kansas late tonight while a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas and a near stationary frontal boundary extending from extreme eastern Colorado southward into the South Plains will provides increased lift/forcing. According to NAM/GFS model soundings, vertical profiles look to be fairly saturated in the lower levels with very little CAPE available in the mid/upper level. Along with the presence of a cooler air mass, increased cloud cover and areas of precip will help keep high temperatures down again Saturday.
BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE, AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US.
348 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 Our beautiful run of fall conditions will persist through the weekend with some warmer temperatures expected next work week. This has left a bit of a ridge languishing across the middle of the Nation which has allowed some cool fall conditions to filter south across the Central Plains over the later potion of the past work week. In general, conditions wont change much through the weekend, with most notable changes waiting till well into next work week as the trough over the western CONUS shifts slowly east into the Plains States.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DRIVE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL STILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES IN PLACE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THUS PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDS IN. LOWS WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATTER MORE LIKELY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER AS WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE CWA.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the central plains predominantly underneath dry northwest flow aloft while two upper lows rotate over the east and west CONUS. For tonight, the upper trough axis is expected to be shunted northward towards the western high plains, breaking down the upper ridge.
355 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015 THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THE SECOND AND STRONGER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
633 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS(4500 FT) ACROSS THE REGION W/UPPER LOW MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING N. RESULTING IN A FCST OF ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEG WARMER OVR THE COLD NW VLYS TO ABOUT 3 DEG COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. A MORE DEFINED PATTERN OF RIDGE/VLY RADITIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS SHOULD EMERGE BY ERLY SUN MORN.
SOME STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSE VALLEY.
253 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EDGES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
135 PM MST FRI OCT 2 2015 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE DRY AND LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
239 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
249 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/ 14Z PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ATTM.
Aloft, vapor imagery depicted the upper low nearing the Western Florida Panhandle. Extensive low cloudiness prevails across the region and with the pattern beginning to stagnate with the upper low in place, expect little change in the weather overnight. Weak cool advection in NE flow will help drop overnight lows into the upper 50s in a few spots in the northern zones, but generally in the low to mid 60s in North Florida.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF LARGE SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY.