Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As one area of high pressure departs the region, the next one will arrive later tonight. This high pressure will be over southwest SD Wednesday afternoon with colder temps likely over this CWA.
243 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 The main issue today will be the passage of another Arctic cold front, which will bring a reinforcing shot of very cold air. Sunshine today and southwest winds ahead of the cold front should help high temps today reach the low 20s N of I-74, with upper 20s south of I-70.
1150 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 Cold front continues to push through the region and will clear the area later tonight. Behind it, it will bring very dry and cold air as high pressure continues to build into the region. but pure cold advection will likely dump temperatures in to the single digits across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois and the low and mid teens across the remainder of the area.
High pressure moves slightly eastward and is southeast of our area this evening, however a reinforcing shot of arctic air will then begin to infiltrate our region late tonight. Therefore high pressure to the northwest takes over, with a marked wind shift from the west to a northwesterly direction after midnight tonight. With the wind in place of 10 to 15 mph late tonight and early Wednesday, preferred the non bias corrected GEM Regional temperatures as the basis for lows, with some mix of the all blend solution which is only slightly warmer by about a category. This high RH may be an artifact of cold air. Will see clouds increase Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front approaches.
A dry, but still unseasonably muggy evening for December across South Florida with temperatures still in the 70s in most locations and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overnight lows remain mild, similar to last night ranging from the low-mid 70s for the interior and Gulf coast and upper 60s-low 70s for the east coast. As the trough moves eastward into the Atlantic waters, most of the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward keeping South Florida under very limited moisture content. 5 to 1 inch mainly in the lower layers through the week with abundant dry air in the mid levels.
1130 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 Most of the low clouds fm earlier this evening have moved S of the FA. /44/ Cold, warmer, thunderstorms, winter precip, 40-50 degree temperature drop, and a partridge in a pear tree.
Also have in mention of MVFR fog with abundant surface moisture underneath this low cloud deck. MVFR cigs may hold on to KCSV into the early afternoon, but high pressure building in should hopefully help lift cigs to get VFR at KCSV by 16Z-18Z.
A cold front was positioned along the Mississippi Coast to New Orleans to just north of Morgan City.
Just received notice as of this writing that a no travel advised has been posted for Oliver County, right where the highest reflectivitys are located. Given continued stronger winds associated with the reinforcing cold front tonight, expanded the Wind Chill Advisory to just about all of western and central North Dakota with this update through 18 UTC Wednesday. Temperatures have recovered nicely this afternoon, especially over the far southwest where readings were in the lower teens. Once again tonight we will see wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero across most of the forecast area as a cold front drops south through the night. Not a strong cold front but significant pressure rises will keep winds up through the night.
348 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 Low pressure will move away from the coast this morning. A cold front will move offshore early today, followed by a stronger front Thursday.
A weak cold front across southern Georgia will slowly slide south through the region through the day, bringing scattered showers. High pressure will begin building into the region tonight, bringing in drier and cooler conditions.
A cold front will cross the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. Moisture will return over the weekend ahead of another cold front. An area of low pressure along the boundary over the southern Midlands and CSRA will move east early this morning. Lows will range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south. A cold front currently located over the Appalachian region will move into the forecast area this morning and push east by this afternoon. Cold front will be east of the area this evening, allowing cooler and drier air to be pushing into the region.
331 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 The cold front that had moved into the area yesterday has resulted in fairly chilly temperatures this morning, particularly along and northeast of the Pecos River Valley. High temperatures will be very similar to yesterday except across the Permian Basin region where temps could be roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. The next cold front will move through the region tonight bringing another quick shot of cold air to much of the area. A short window for patchy freezing drizzle remains possible Thursday morning generally across the northern Permian Basin where below freezing temperatures are expected. Southerly winds look to return by mid day Thursday but with clouds persisting across the eastern half of the forecast area, highs will only warm into the low to mid 50s along and NE of the Pecos River.
High pressure builds in on Wednesday for improving conditions.
1157 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 Another cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the forecast area later tonight. The wind will begin to decrease by late Wednesday afternoon as a cold area of high pressure slides down into the region.
Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday as a low pressure system develops over Oregon.
These should move out in the wake of a low pressure trough sliding southeast through WI this morning.
(Modified Previous Discussion) Trough aloft will move across the southeast states on Sat and we will still have considerable moisture and instability for scattered showers/storms so have maintained 50 PoPs, except the model blend suggested near 60 percent in the south.
These are forming at the intersection of the cold front and the right entrance region of 70 to 80 kt jet around 300mb. Water Vapor imagery over the past few hours is showing drier air streaming in behind the MCS to our south ahead of the cold front. However, the low mentioned above over central MS is pulling some of the residual stratus behind the MCS to the north. As the cold front slowly shifts east, it will encounter these areas that have begun to destabilize and should see some regeneration of storms along the front. A cold front is slowly nearing NW Alabama and storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front.
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area.
349 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was located over northern Missouri. Finally, another short wave trough was located over central Minnesota.
Winds will pick up after 21/14z tomorrow, clearing out the low clouds/fog and as a dryline starts to set up along the NM/TX state line. /Issued 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ An upper ridge will build over the Panhandles today and tonight with the upper flow transitioning to southwesterly on Saturday as the upper ridge moves off to the east and an approaching closed upper low over the Great Basin region moves slowly east.
LONGER RANGE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND/OR VORTICITY CENTERS WILL MEANWHILE ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
354 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 An upper trough continues to lift northeast into the Midwest and away from the region. In the wake of this trough, a significant amount of mid and upper level dry air continues to advect into the CWA.
mainly VFR conds this evening as weak high pressure over east Texas moves east.
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region tonight for another dry night with clear skies.
1138 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
The upper trough will be moving through the OH and TN valley areas overnight. most rain should be east of the forecast area except for a lingering slight chance for the northeast mountains close to the upper trough. Temperatures have been cooler for much of north GA this afternoon due to easterly winds and clouds. Cold front is through the area by Saturday evening.
310 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Currently - A weak ridge extends across the Florida peninsula, resulting in light southeast winds across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Mid level ridging and near zonal flow aloft is keeping shower activity at a minimum this afternoon, despite a warm and quite humid surface layer. Short Term - The previously mentioned ridge will remain across the Florida peninsula tonight into tomorrow. Only a couple of degrees are expected to be shaved off highs and lows, but dew points should dip into the lower 70s. Surface winds will remain light out of the east to southeast across Florida Keys waters due to a ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula. Winds will slacken further beginning late Saturday as the ridge across Florida breaks down.
A greater push of low level moisture advection will be lacking, low level flow locked into an easterly component immediately south of prevalent surface ridging centered over northern lake Huron.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night):Upper level Ridge will build across the S TX region during the short term forecast with a weak warm front gradually lifting northward across Deep South Texas while it gets wash out. Sea breeze developing today is allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue along the sea breeze near the Lower Texas Coast this afternoon.
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Very little change in the forecast for the next 24-36 hours as weak high pressure begins to build across the western Great Lakes.
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A large, longwave upper level trough will continue to develop across the western United States this weekend. With mid level flow increasing across the Rockies, strengthening surface lee troughing will result in increasing south winds and low level moistening.
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Small-scale upper trough/low pressure center responsible for early morning shwr activity continuing to slowly translate east this afternoon. Low stratus that has kept afternoon highs largely in the lower 60s will begin to breakup this evening.
Scattered showers over Nashville's area will follow the track of low level winds around the low. rain is expected to weaken and move east of the appalachians as the low pressure continues across SW VA. Light scattered showers could move through the valley late morning and afternoon as another brief wave of energy moves around the low. especially in the higher elevations.
A few isolated showers will continue to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon in the lower valley near kbro terminal. Cigs will remain in the high end MVFR for portion of the day and continue into tonight. Later in the taf period will bring the forecast ceilings back down to mvfr/ifr levels as expect the low level dewpoints to rebound steadily. The stationary front will weaken later today and tonight as 500 mb ridging builds over the south central plains in response to closed lows moving over the Pacific NW and the Great Lakes states. The NAM and the ECWMF come in warmer versus the GFS numbers and will go closer to a blend of these two models.
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will exit to the east today as low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley tracks northeast towards southern Ohio tonight. The low will exit to the east on Saturday as energy shifts to the east coast.
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Low pressure across the mid Mississippi Valley will move up across the upper Ohio Valley tonight through Saturday morning.
426 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region tonight for another dry night with clear skies.
With the passage of the short wave trough axis, precipitation chances should go away after midnight. Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should keep the region dry with moderating temperatures through the end of the short term period.
During Saturday upper level trough will move across Florida and with plenty of moisture and instability expected we should see more scattered convection develop, especially over inland areas. with ridging extending across the central U. and deep troughing over the eastern half of the country. At that time, upper level ridging will build into the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida panhandle. On the surface, a low pressure center sits off the Virginia coast and extends a cold front southwest along the eastern seaboard and over northern Florida. High pressure over the central U.
Short wave trough still to our west will swing across our area this evening with bulk of the rain east of interstate 65 during the evening and overnight.
303 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Low pressure approaches this evening and moves through late tonight. A Low pressure system intensify as the first vorticity lobe crosses the area by this evening.
Expect cooler temperatures and another round of strong south to southwest winds on Saturday.
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Compact upper low continues to make slow progress across the ern half of the forecast area early this morning. With peaks of sunshine for the afternoon, expect warmer max temps for this afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the plains with max temps closer seasonal norms. As the ridge moves rapidly to the east of the forecast area this evening, low-mid level moisture begins to increase for late this evening, as flow becomes more southwesterly.
322 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Center of upper low was into north central Missouri early this afternoon with high clouds clearing. Lee trough under southwest upper flow keeping southerly low-level flow in place but gradient remains weak. Weak lower level flow remains in place into Saturday as mid/upper ridge axis builds east into the Central Plains. Both the lift and instability look rather meager through tonight, with somewhat better ingredients for precip developing in the midday hours of Saturday as the mid level ridge comes east.
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Windy conditions will continue through tonight as a strong area of low pressure moves into the region.
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A low pressure system will lift out the Tennessee Valley and into the Upper Ohio Valley through tonight. Scattered showers will linger into Saturday as the low pressure system moves off to the east.
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Weak upper low tracking across the Midwest bringing some light precip. just low chances for precip, and winds becoming increasingly northerly in the wake of the low. The upper low and any lingering rain chance in our southeast counties will finally push away from our area later Saturday morning, which should allow a decrease in cloud cover during the day as upper level heights slowly build over the region.
Expecting just a bit of patchy fog towards sunrise as skies will be mostly clear as ridging aloft develops. The ridging will keep clouds in check thereby allowing afternoon temps to climb back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
220 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 20z surface analysis had southerly flow over the CWA ahead of lee trough from central MT into central CO. TSRA have developed over the higher terrain as southeast boundary layer flow converges over the northern and central Black Hills. Convection should develop along lee trough in the afternoon over northeast WY with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear.
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low center along the Oregon coast this morning. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and extreme NW CO.
***Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds the main threats*** An upper trough continues to dig into the Pacific Northwest and translate east, all while helping to set up diffluent southwest flow aloft over the northern High Plains. For Saturday, that trough will continue to translate east and provide enhanced upper level diffluent southerly flow aloft.
1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Upper level trough spinning through the Central Plains early this morning triggering a few light showers/sprinkles well to our south with expansive mid level clouds spreading northward through eastern Nebraska and Iowa. This trough projected to track eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, while another trough begins to drop south into the Red River Valley. With the more extensive cloud cover and cooler low level air working into the area around the Central Plains trough, have cooled temperatures today a bit from previous forecast, but still looking at highs a couple of degrees either side of 70. Should be another mild night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Southerly flow is expected to increase throughout the weekend ahead of a trough approaching from the west.
652 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Clouds will thicken and lower overnight into Saturday morning, especially along I-94 corridor as low pressure tracks into the southern Ohio Valley and band(s) of light rain pivot into the far southern terminals. Still expect VFR conditions to hold as high pressure to the north maintains a dry northeast flow in the low levels. A greater push of low level moisture advection will be lacking, low level flow locked into an easterly component immediately south of prevalent surface ridging centered over northern lake Huron.
114 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will bring sunny, dry weather to NY and PA today, before a storm slides into the northeast and spreads rain showers across our region for the weekend. High pressure-induced sunny skies will combine with 13C-15C 925 MB temperatures to produce a mild afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s across most of our region.
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under weak upper-lvl ridging between two systems, one over the upper MS Valley and the other over northern CA. At the lwr lvls, stratus that has plagued the area over the past few days has burned off w/the exit of yesterday's trough, w/afternoon temps approaching normal once again. Upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit over the next few days as the west coast trough moves inland, w/a weak dryline developing over mid-CWA Saturday afternoon.
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will bring sunny, dry weather to NY and PA today, before a storm slides into the northeast and spreads rain showers across our region for the weekend. High pressure-induced sunny skies will combine with 13C-15C 925 MB temperatures to produce a mild afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s across most of our region.
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Weak split upper troughing affects eastern Canada to the lower Great Lakes into Sat. Meanwhile, strong ridge from Central Plains to south central Canada slowly will move toward Upper Great Lakes by late on Sat. At the sfc, high pressure ridge overhead much of this week will give way to weak trough crossing Lk Superior and Upper Michigan on Sat. On Sat, soundings look too dry for showers or tsra but could be sct-bkn mid clouds as the trough moves through. Passage of trough will result in nw winds and not as much of a lake breeze off Lk Michigan. Temps will be cooler east half near Lk Superior.
Increasing 925mb temps and the high clouds will keep min temps a little warmer than previous nights. Max temps will be warmer than today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland from the lake.
Pressure falls ahead of an approaching trough over CA will again turn winds on the plains more SE. Models are indicating a Denver cyclone setting up to the north of the city that will help to pull moisture more west. This low fog and increased moisture will lift into a lowered stratus that will delay initial warming.
1027 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Upper low continued to move slowly southward into CA this morning with showers continuing over parts of the northern Sierra and northwest NV. Temperatures across most road areas were rising above freezing and impacts from snow showers will be minimal the rest of the day. /Issued 308 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ A cold upper low will linger over the Sierra and western Nevada into Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today, with the highest chance north of I-80 in northeast California and far northwest Nevada. Fairly vigorous low pressure is dropping into northern California this morning, with good upper forcing and lower level frontogenesis near a 700 mb low forming over northeast California and extreme northwest Nevada. The cold upper low remains overhead on Saturday.
Storm system will continue pulling away tonight as mid level nw flow/ridging builds in from the west, clearing remaining cloud cover away. Maximum temperatures in the lower to middle 80s early in the period should have no trouble warming into the upper 80s to near 90 by the end of the period as ridging pattern keeps lower layers warm. Meanwhile over the east, dewpoints in the lower 60s will mean a larger diurnal range each day and a lesser probability of precipitation.
A low pressure system seems to have set up camp over the Great Basin.
A much warmer and more moist airmass is poised to surge back into the area tonight into Saturday as the front which pushed through last evening returns inland. Dewpoints just offshore and over the lower Valley are in the u70s-L80s. Hopefully you were able to get out and enjoy the lower humidity earlier today because tropical humidity is returning and once it does it will stick around indefinitely. Clouds should slowly clear a bit diurnally Saturday allowing temperatures to get much warmer than today.
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure building from the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic coast today will move out to sea tonight. Then low pressure tracking up the Eastern seaboard will pass south of the area on Saturday.
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 00z upper-air analysis revealed the continued presence of a split-flow pattern with an amplifying trough over the western U. Again, some lingering cloudiness could temper the potential for maximum diurnal heating with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The major trough evolving over the western U. The associated surface cold front will concurrently advance east through the northern and central High Plains with the greatest thunderstorm chances remaining to our west.
Meanwhile, upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS moves offshore over the western Atlantic, with ridging then building into the eastern CONUS in its wake. Large- scale subsidence beneath this ridge will keep skies mostly clear through the near term, with afternoon highs on Friday expected to reach a pleasant upper 60's areawide. Some patchy frost will be possible across the interior around sunrise Saturday morning as plentiful radiational cooling and low moisture levels help temps dip into the low to mid 30's inland and upper 30's near the coast.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER TODAY. Strong high pressure building into the area will provide cooler and much drier conditions to the area with breezy north winds. high temps will be held in the 60s across much of the area except near 70 across the far south which is still several degrees cooler than normal.
High pressure aloft will briefly build across the region through the end of the week.
High pressure and stable conditions will prevent showers from developing this afternoon. But as for every where else across the northern Rockies this afternoon will be pretty pleasant with some increase in sun and valley temperatures into the lower to mid 40s. Later this evening the ridge will begin to flatten as low pressure off the west coast begins to move inland.