Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, the influences of the deep upper trough centered over Mississippi will continue to be felt with increased deep layer moisture over our area. This will be most likely north of I-10 and especially along the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. If we are able to achieve some instability, a chance for a strong to severe storm will be possible given the drier/cooler air aloft enhancing DCAPE. Friday might be a little warmer with the encroaching dry air bringing potentially a little more sun to the area but highs will probably range in the upper 80s across the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Since the RGV is on the east side of the large 500 mb ridge axis over the Desert SW, expect the relatively dry and stable northerly flow aloft to continue across the region. Heat index readings will likely be a bit higher tomorrow afternoon as the low level winds start to turn around back from the SE resulting in some increasing surface dewpoints.
This is thanks to a large scale upper trough being located over the Mid-South. However, expect at least isolated convection to continue through the overnight hours as an upper low pressure develops within the trough.
327 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Latest sfc analysis was indicating lingering ridge axis acrs the southern GRT LKS to the mid MS RVR Valley, with higher DPT fields flowing up around the western and northwest flank of it up acrs the plains back over acrs MN/WI. Warm core upper ridge dome still centered over the southwestern CONUS and up the Rockies, spilling northwesterlies down acrs the northern plains and upper MS RVR Valley.
259 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Latest WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the Four Corners, a vigorous trough over the Mississippi River Delta, with resulting northerly flow aloft in place over the Panhandles. For this evening and tonight, main forecast question is whether or not another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur as the upper ridge retreats to the west just a bit and a disturbance in the north-northwesterly flow aloft translates across the CWA. Given this, will need thunderstorms to generate on the higher terrain to our west and move into the forecast area, with any convection likely fizzling out before it reaches Amarillo/Borger and points eastward.
230 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Another mostly quiet late summer is underway thanks to high pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Isolated showers are trying to push northwest into the far southeast Pennyrile as a trof axis moves towards Middle TN from the Gulf Coast.
Further to the west, a cold front, still located over western Montana, will eventually reach us by this evening, possibly bringing a second round of storms capable of gusty winds to the area through early Friday morning. Heights rebuild on Friday as brief upper ridging returns. However, cool temperatures behind the cold front will persist throughout the day, so cooler temperatures 'only' reaching the lower 90s can be expected. As winds shift behind the cold front, much of the smoke should move out of the area as well, though current wildfires around Washington may supply some smoke to the area instead.
139 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Late this afternoon, an upper level disturbance will move from Wyoming into Nebraska along a ridging pattern that is centered over the Four Corners. At the surface, a trough extends from North Dakota into Western Nebraska and the Front Range. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and surface winds will be between 5 and 10 miles per hour. The upper level ridge currently over the Southwest U.
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will continue to provide pleasant summer days the rest of this week.
Temperatures will continue to slowly march back into the low to mid 90s for highs, but oppressive dew points should remain at bay.
MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg due to high temps reaching the low 80s for most and dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.
1138 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The general weather pattern over the next 24-48 hours is likely to remain characterized by broad upper-level ridging over much of the western CONUS. Today should feature the best chance for widespread precipitation as a substantial mid- level short wave is progged to traverse the edge of the ridge this afternoon. MRGL risk remains in place from SPC with a dry boundary layer likely to promote strong outflow wind gusts, especially with LCLs well above the freezing level.
At the surface southerly flow should remain in tact through the night as a trough of low pressure develops to the west.
Surface analysis reveals broad high pressure sprawled out across much of the Northeast CONUS and Ohio Valley. A few showers and storms have managed to pop up in some of the higher terrain in Tennessee and Kentucky. A broad upper level low over the Gulf Coast states will slowly lift north- northeastward toward our region tomorrow. While individual convective activity will be short-lived and pulse-like given the low environmental shear, there will be some potential for storms to reform along boundaries and result in some training.
127 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Pittsburgh Friday, and for the rest of the area over the weekend, with a crossing trough of low pressure. High pressure, a relaxed, uniform flow, and dry air will maintain mostly clear skies today.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 07Z water vapor imagery continues to show a blocking pattern with high pressure centered over the four corners region. Meanwhile upper troughs over the lower MS river valley and the Gulf of Alaska have not moved much. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continued to ridge into eastern KS. Highs today should be about the same or a degree or two warmer than yesterday's. The blocking pattern is progged to persist through the weekend.
Upper trough over the MS valley is in place but amplification expected to hold off until tomorrow.
High pressure aloft is firmly entrenched over the US Southwest with a trough in Hudson Bay leaving us in between under northwest flow.
326 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Storms have developed quickly across the forecast area this afternoon as daytime heating combined with the presence of the anomalous upper trough positioned over the MS River Valley. Not much change is expected for tomorrow given the upper trough will remain over the region. /28/ The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with an amplified ridge/trough pattern in place across the CONUS. Stout upper ridging will be centered over the Four Corners with an anomalous trough extending through the the Mississippi Valley. As we head through the weekend, the upper low is progged to lift north into the Great Lakes region and become absorbed into northern stream flow. This will allow for subtropical ridging across the Atlantic to build west across the Deep South with the Lower Mississippi Valley on the western edge of the ridge.
1109 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Surface ridging remains in place through the forecast area today, though the axis has shifted to the east slightly from the previous couple of days. A strong mid level anticyclone remains anchored across the Southwestern US with strong mid level northerly flow over the Plains. /Issued 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Quiet/seasonally mild weather will continue, with the forecast area remaining in northerly flow aloft between the western states ridge and MS valley trof.
241 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. Tonight, the high will begin to retreat to the east. Meanwhile additional upper level moisture will lift north as the upper trof develops a closed low down over Louisiana. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in nrn KY. This will provide some weak upper support as the low level instability increases. High temperatures will continue their warming trend, pushing into the lower to mid 80s.
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper level ridging continues to ridge through the Florida Straits while upper level troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The troughing digs further south by early Friday morning as a closed low develops in the base of the trough over MS on Friday.
Few of the high resolution models have accurately depicted this trend, though some of the short term ensembles have had the closest forecast thus far.
1156 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Pittsburgh Friday, and for the rest of the area over the weekend, with a crossing trough of low pressure. High pressure, a relaxed, uniform flow, and dry air will maintain mostly clear skies today.
316 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Temperatures once again have topped out in the low to mid 80s today, with dew points in the 50s. Friday will continue the dry spell but will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today.
636 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania will continue to move slowly east and then off the New England Coast overnight. However a ridge of high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
Aloft, a blocky long wave pattern is in place, with high pressure centered near the Desert Southwest, with ridging extending northward along the Rockies. Troughing is aligned from the eastern Great Lakes down to the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level low churning across the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures currently range from the upper 60s and lower 70s in rain-cooled air, to the low and mid 80s where less clouds reside. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the lower Mississippi Valley low pressure system nudging northeast with time. This will bring an influx of moisture, along with bouts of forcing, as short wave energy ejects out from the low center. Locally heavy rainers will be possible, given the higher freezing levels and more sluggish storm movement.
Smoke will remain the main challenge over the next few days under the persistent area of high pressure, and will be monitored for any needed products other than current air quality products.
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Late this afternoon, an upper level disturbance will move from Wyoming into Nebraska along a ridging pattern that is centered over the Four Corners. At the surface, a trough extends from North Dakota into Western Nebraska and the Front Range. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and surface winds will be between 5 and 10 miles per hour. The upper level ridge currently over the Southwest U.
645 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend. Low pressure over the southeast U.
649 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure ridge and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania will provide the region with fair weather overnight. Latest SREF and NAMNest both indicate late night patchy fog is also possible across the Lower Susq Valley, where dewpoints are progged to rise into the 60s. Variable clouds with increasing low level moisture Friday night will support warmer min temps in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the southeast.
759 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 System relative flow on isobaric surfaces highlight a 950-700mb anticyclone centered in vicinity of southwest Lower Michigan, southern basin of Lake Michigan and northern Illinois. This midlevel high pressure system is forecasted to remain in place through Friday.
As it begins to shift, more moisture will rotate further eastward over MLU and ELD, prompting our forecast temps to be slightly warmer overnight there and keeping chances of afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast at the 30-40 percent range, especially in SE LA parishes by 18Z.
Upper trough situated over the MS valley this afternoon. Low level 850 mb trough axis extends northeast across the mid state with a decent cyclonic flow but weak directional convergence. The upper trough will feature more of a closed low on Friday as it works slowly northward.
Inverted trough extends from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia early this evening.
Some convection is expected to top the ridge later tonight into Friday and potentially impact the north/east portion of the area tomorrow afternoon/evening. A better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will come later Friday night (particularly the overnight time frame) as the low level jet strengthens across the region and we get much better moisture transport and deep layer moisture convergence.
For southern Arizona, enough moisture will be around for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms under easterly flow aloft with upper high near the 4 corners.
Smoke will remain the main challenge over the next few days under the persistent area of high pressure, and will be monitored for any needed products.
Convection currently over the higher terrain of northeastern NM will edge toward the TX/NM state line later this evening, but should remain well west of the terminals. /issued 236 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Upper level high pressure remains to the west of the forecast area which will maintain northerly flow across the region today.
Temperatures today will be a little cooler in most locations, though still well above normal.
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania will continue to move slowly east and then off the New England Coast overnight. However a ridge of high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
705 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure ridge and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania will provide the region with fair weather overnight. Latest SREF and NAMNest both indicate late night patchy fog is also possible across the Lower Susq Valley, where dewpoints are progged to rise into the 60s. Variable clouds with increasing low level moisture Friday night will support warmer min temps in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the southeast.
/Issued 259 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Latest WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the Four Corners, a vigorous trough over the Mississippi River Delta, with resulting northerly flow aloft in place over the Panhandles. For this evening and tonight, main forecast question is whether or not another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur as the upper ridge retreats to the west just a bit and a disturbance in the north-northwesterly flow aloft translates across the CWA. Given this, will need thunderstorms to generate on the higher terrain to our west and move into the forecast area, with any convection likely fizzling out before it reaches Amarillo/Borger and points eastward.
725 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania will continue to move slowly east and then off the New England Coast overnight. However a ridge of high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
815 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a potent upper level trough over the northern Gulf coast, with deep moisture streaming across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida Peninsula.
935 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend. Low pressure over the southeast U.
More storms are expected to fire over the higher terrain before drifting to the I-25 corridor. The highest potential for strong to severe storms will be over this area and slightly east, where current analysis shows slightly better environments for storms to intensify. CAPE is currently between 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear is sitting around 25-35 knots, with dewpoints over the east plains in the low-mid 50s. High temperatures are expected to be hot again, comparable to today but perhaps a couple degrees warmer.
These storms were being aided by 2-3h upper divergence within a somewhat coupled upper jet structure of a departing LRQ and incoming RFQ east of the lower MS valley upper low. The weak trough/shear zone/low pressure area will remain parked over the area heading into the weekend.
A strong mid-level trough across the northern Gulf has provided sufficient lift for storm development, and deep SW flow continues to feed deep tropical moisture across the central FL peninsula. (Previous Discussion)The Atlantic ridge axis will move back north to across the local waters during the day on Fri- Fri evening.
However, showers quickly dissipated, but the high clouds will continue for a few more hours before scattering out. Otherwise, fair weather will continue through tomorrow as high pressure gradually pushes further east. Wagner (Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020) Tonight through Friday night: Quiet weather will continue through Friday as high pressure centered to the southeast slowly pulls away.
Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Friday are expected to range from the lower 80s across the north, with middle to upper 80s across central and east-central Wisconsin away from the lake.
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Pittsburgh Friday, and for the rest of the area over the weekend, with a crossing trough of low pressure.
1052 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure ridge and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania will provide the region with fair weather overnight. Latest SREF and NAMNest both indicate late night patchy fog is also possible across the Lower Susq Valley, where dewpoints are progged to rise into the 60s. Variable clouds with increasing low level moisture Friday night will support warmer min temps in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the southeast.
Latest sfc analysis was indicating lingering ridge axis acrs the southern GRT LKS to the mid MS RVR Valley, with higher DPT fields flowing up around the western and northwest flank of it up acrs the plains back over acrs MN/WI. Warm core upper ridge dome still centered over the southwestern CONUS and up the Rockies, spilling northwesterlies down acrs the northern plains and upper MS RVR Valley.
Otherwise conditions are pretty quiet and temps seem on track to bottom out in the low to mid 60s. The hot and muggy conditions remain in place, but there may be a slightly better trigger moving in, in the form of a cold front. However this cold front looks pretty weak, reflected by a poor surface wind field and weak 850mb cold advection. The southwest ridge looks to stay in place over the weekend and should begin to drift eastward, which will introduce zonal flow in the upper levels, moving in to the work week.
Temperatures once again have topped out in the low to mid 80s today, with dew points in the 50s. Friday will continue the dry spell but will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today. VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as a mid- level ridge remains anchored over the Ozarks. Surface winds will be light and variable with high pressure in place.
Another mostly quiet late summer is underway thanks to high pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Isolated showers are trying to push northwest into the far southeast Pennyrile as a trof axis moves towards Middle TN from the Gulf Coast.
A secondary trough remains over SD, near the Missouri River. Expect the entire system to shift east, with afternoon heating and the nearing cold front resulting in rapidly developing showers and a few thunderstorms around 21Z near the Missouri River.
(Today through Saturday) Moderate to strong northerly flow will continue for a few more days, with gradient of upper high over intermountain region and upper trough/upper low across the lower and mid-MS valley region. Before the mentioned upper low gets kicked northeast over the weekend, the northerly flow will allow a weak s/wv trough to progress out of the central plains and over Oklahoma/northern Texas late today through early Saturday.
Upper ridge nudges into the area on Friday with rising heights. At the start of the period, upper ridging dominates the pattern from the west coast to the Plains. With the High Plains on the eastern side of the upper high, the region looks to be under northerly flow. To the east, another area of high pressure prevails across the southeastern CONUS.
The high degree of insolation potential within an underlying moderating mean thickness layer offers a noted uptick in projected highs today. Outer expanse of the higher upper heights tied to the strong upper high featured over the southwest conus will continue to make gradual inroads locally over the weekend period.
With the slight rise in 850/925mb temps and a more southeast surface fetch, highs should be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight, quiet again under the lingering ridge axis with mild lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s, and possibly more patchy fog. The large and slow moving upper low currently over the lower Mississippi River Valley, will migrate northeast towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
321 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Weak cyclonic flow at the surface and a highly amplified mid level trough centered just East of the Mississippi River Valley is helping to maintain an area of showers and thunderstorms on the East side of the trough over North Mississippi. As storms approach the Mississippi River/trough axis they should move into a less supportive environment and weaken. Over the next 24 hours or so the Trough will remain nearly stationary then broaden and shift slightly farther East tonight into Early Saturday. More cloud cover today may keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday.
Good elevated instability is in place, but with very dry mid levels and subsidence dominating we should remain dry until upstream trough moves east later this morning. Warm front moves northeast and initial cold front eventually washes out leaving less focused/uncertain areas of low level convergence. Saturday: There could still be lingering convection from the overnight/morning period, but a drying trend as a stronger cold front pushes higher instability axis south and east of our CWA.
1133 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure ridge and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania will provide the region with fair weather overnight. Latest SREF and NAMNest both indicate late night patchy fog is also possible across the Lower Susq Valley, where dewpoints are progged to rise into the 60s. Variable clouds with increasing low level moisture Friday night will support warmer min temps in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the southeast. There remains decent agreement among medium range guidance that the remnants of upper-level low pres over the Lower Miss Valley will drift northeastward and over the Ohio Valley by this weekend.
240 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Cold front was marching across the forecast area, clearing all but the far southeast. Winds have turned to the northwest and northeast behind the front and this will allow for a cooler day. Despite the frontal passage, ridge to the south was still strong and thus highs will remain warmer than seasonal norms, with late afternoon readings in the lower 90s for most places today. Saturday will be warmer with the upper ridge building back in earnest. Some monsoon moisture does push up toward the higher terrain, but energy with it was very weak.