Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
241 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights the departing long wave trough to the east of Florida. A ridge axis working east through the Plains supports sinking motion across Florida. The mid-upper level ridging over the Plains will march steadily east over the next several days.
Given slight southeasterly SFC flow overnight and an increase in high clouds before sunrise will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s, approximately 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night.
233 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 A weak area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across the Northern Plains tonight. The cold front will pass through this CWA dry with only a shift in wind direction to the northwest expected. The high pressure, along with light winds, should allow for temperatures to drop into the teens and low 20s Sunday night.
High clouds should gradually increase later this afternoon and into this evening and continue to thicken through Sunday, but no precipitation is expected with continued dry air in the lower levels. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the lower to mid 30s inland (a few of the typically colder spots in the CWA may drop to 30-32 again tonight) and in the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast. Highs on Sunday are expected to range in the lower to mid 60s. An upper level low pressure system located near the TX/OK panhandles Sunday evening will move eastward across the vicinity of KS/OK through late Sunday night.
1036 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure centered over Kentucky will continue to slowly move away from the area. As it does so southwest winds will pick up and bring warmer air and moisture to the region. As high pressure to our southeast moves away the surface pressure gradient will gradually increase and winds will become gusty as it advects warmer temps into the forecast area. A broad high pressure ridge across the south central U. will keep skies mostly clear through tonight, while breezy southwest winds continue to bring warmer air into central IL. The upper level trough currently moving onto the southern CA coast will progress across the southern U.
333 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Relatively benign ridge dominated regime on tap tonight into Sunday with the unfortunate return of showers looking to start in parts of the north Sunday afternoon with an initial isentropically induced wave.
652 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Sunday, as temperatures continue to warm.
Looking ahead, fire weather concerns will be low tomorrow after a cold front advances tonight. Cooler conditions in place tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s, 10-15 degrees cooler than today, and light northerly breezes. Increasing clouds overnight in advance of a developing upper level low over the southwest US is expected. the upper level low will continue to track across Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
814 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure centered over Kentucky will continue to slowly move away from the area. As it does so, southwest winds will pick up and bring warmer air and moisture to the region. With sunshine, mixing, and continued warm advection at 700-850 mb, highs Sunday should be several degrees warmer than today. Upper low now moving into the southern California coast tonight will continue eastward through the weekend interacting with a significant IVT anomaly out ahead of it.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow before rain moves in with a low pressure system for the first half of the week. Upper ridging will propagate eastward but remain strong enough over the area to keep dry and clear conditions. As a low pressure system approaches, clouds will start to move in from the south starting late tonight.
Winds have been gusting to near 50 mph over the western foothills today but should decrease tonight as winds aloft decrease and the surface pressure gradient weakens in response to a weak cold front moving through the area.
243 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 Warm high pressure and an increasingly high sun angle will continue to erode away valley temperature inversions today and Sunday. , Missoula Valley) have been slow to warm above freezing this afternoon. Most valley temperature inversions will break by midday Sunday, as clouds increase and strong cold front approaches the Northern Rockies. Anticipate the surface cold front to pass through the region between early Sunday afternoon (northwest Montana) through Sunday evening (southwest Montana). Model guidances suggest that there will be a significant blast of snow along the cold front, with up to 2 inches snow accumulation within a few hours of frontal passage.
* None Ongoing low level warm air advection within the southwest return flow associated with the large high anchored over the TN Valley has allowed temps to rise into the low to mid 40s. While the airmass will remain very dry tonight with sfc dewpoints around 20F, the strength of the low level wind fields will limit the degree of decoupling in the nocturnal boundary layer. The result will be a little warmer nighttime mins (around 30) in comparison to the last several nights. A warmer Sunday temp forecast (highs around 50) seems more reasonable, which in turn will support somewhat gusty winds (25-30 MPH).
A relatively enjoyable day out there today with plenty of sunshine and just about everybody climbing into the low 50s. Skies should remain mostly clear tonight, allowing for temperatures to drop back towards the freezing mark, but not near as cold as last night.
538 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure has move east of the region and light onshore winds will begin to bring back low level moisture. Cirrus will continue to stream overhead through the TAF period as Pacific moisture slides across a deamplifying upper level ridge.
A southwest low level flow is keeping middle elevation locations along the mountains and parts of the plateau warmer in the lower to mid 40s but lower elevations of northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest North Carolina where winds have dropped off are in the lower 30s. VFR conditions and light winds will continue tonight and Sunday as high pressure slides slowly east.
515 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure centered over Kentucky will continue to slowly move away from the area. As it does so, southwest winds will pick up and bring warmer air and moisture to the region. With sunshine, mixing, and continued warm advection at 700-850 mb, highs Sunday should be several degrees warmer than today. Upper low now moving into the southern California coast tonight will continue eastward through the weekend interacting with a significant IVT anomaly out ahead of it.
With this in mine temps may be slightly cooler than the previous days but highs around freezing are still in play for many locations.
The latest forecast track of the 500 and 700mb lows along/just south of the Oklahoma-Kansas border is a classic path for heavy precipitation, to go along with deepening of the low as it is moving across our area. This is a significant deepening of the low which will result in intense upward vertical motion along/just north of the 700mb low and high precipitation rates. If the other models continue a trend toward the colder like the NAM12, then winter headlines will almost definitely be needed, especially considering that strong north winds would accompany any snow on the backside of the low.
Low pressure area over Southern California brought some showers to parts of the region earlier. Cooler air behind the low pressure area will filter into the region for Sunday for a brief cooldown back to near normal temperatures.
/GG/ The ArkLaMiss is currently being influenced by an upper level ridge and a strong high pressure that is now over over the Louisiana coastal line. This upper level ridge and high pressure will continue to shift east allowing the region to be dry the rest of the day, tonight and for part of the day Sunday. The previous mentioned upper-level ridge will get replaced with an upper-level long-wave trough which will help increased moisture bring the return of rainy weather late Sunday night.
237 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 Progressive pattern continues through the next 36 hours, as a pair of troughs approach the region. The second trough is diving into the Pacific Northwest, and should start impacting far NW WY just after sunset Sunday evening.
705 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 A cold front across northeast Montana/southeast Saskatchewan will move through North Dakota tonight. The front will bring a wind shift to the northwest, some slightly cooler air with some gusts to 25 mph. Overnight, another wave with move through the state along with a surface cold front. Highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler, mainly in the 30s.
A weak area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across the Northern Plains tonight. The cold front will pass through this CWA dry with only a shift in wind direction to the northwest expected. The high pressure, along with light winds, should allow for temperatures to drop into the teens and low 20s Sunday night.
Temperatures are not likely to get quite as warm as on Saturday, as 925 hPa temperatures will slowly begin to fall with the arrival of a diffuse cold front.
For tonight, extensive mid and high level clouds will continue to stream northeast into the OK and TX Panhandles from the subtropics ahead of a closed upper level low pressure system currently moving into southern California. The closed upper level low is progged to track eastward across the four corners region tonight and Sunday morning, and then into the northern Texas Panhandle by late Sunday afternoon. Short range models are in reasonable agreement with the above path of the upper level low and were accepted. Finally, the northern stream cold front will begin affecting northwest and far northern sections of the fcst area later Sunday. This is the primary reason for the high temperature gradient for Sunday from northwest to southeast.
High pressure continues to drift off to the southeast this afternoon as upper level ridging nudges in from the west. Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset given the dry air and clear skies in place, but light winds will keep overnight lows a little warmer compared to this morning.
/issued 333 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020/ Relatively benign ridge dominated regime on tap tonight into Sunday with the unfortunate return of showers looking to start in parts of the north Sunday afternoon with an initial isentropically induced wave.
Rain will end from west to east into Sunday morning with much cooler weather. Surface cold front still west of the area while the upper low was near San Diego. Light to moderate rains this evening out ahead of front then tapering off later tonight behind front as upper low continues to lift NE across the state.
Ridge of high pressure builds over the Southeast U. Expecting dry conditions, lighter winds, and afternoon temps in the low to mid 70s.
Afternoon highs topped out in the 50s over most of the region today, though a few readings in the lower 60s were reported across southwest and central Nebraska (including Norfolk). As the upper level trough inches out of the Deserts southwest Sunday, it will spread rain/snow east into Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas as the day progresses.
A midlevel ridge axis was traversing the Central Plains ahead of a deep midlevel low across Southern CA. The cloud cover was in response to a long fetch of Pacific moisture rounding the ridge and overspreading the Plains as a cirrus shield. Furthermore, a tightening surface pressure gradient, in response to the deepening lee trough, has resulted in southerly winds of 10-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH. Overnight lows look to reach the lower 30s in northern KS to near 40 southeast of I-35.
Fortunately the air mass is fairly dry, so the boundary layer moisture should be fairly shallow and mix out as the westerly winds increase Sunday morning with the approaching cold front.
616 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Cold and dry Canadian high pressure will dominate this weekend.
412 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 Upper level analysis shows nearly zonal/weakly ridged flow over the central states, with a low pressure system moving over CA, and an upper wave pushing into Alberta. The Canadian wave will sweep eastward along the US/Canadian border tonight, dragging a weak, dry cold front through the northern plains. The only noticeable changes will be a wind shift to the northwest and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday; however, models are showing warmer temps than previously, with highs still generally in the 40s. Aforementioned CA upper low will slide well to the south of the Dakotas Sunday/Sunday night.
A storm system will impact central and southern Utah overnight into Sunday morning, before high pressure briefly builds into the region Sunday afternoon. Another storm system will push a cold front through northern Utah Sunday night, with high pressure following for the majority of the upcoming week.
A quick update this evening to adjust overnight lows down in the Mud Lake and Bear Lake areas where colder temperatures persist albeit a little warmer than previous nights.
temps were holding up in the lower 50s and upper 40s. surface RH was still only in the 40-55 percent range with drier air holding on through the low/mid levels. have lowered pops to slight chances across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as model soundings indicate a moistening of the low levels late tonight.
1002 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 Progressive pattern continues through the next 36 hours, as a pair of troughs approach the region. The second trough is diving into the Pacific Northwest, and should start impacting far NW WY just after sunset Sunday evening.
Surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure centered over South Carolina and sprawling from the western Atlantic to South Texas. The Keys lie within a rather tight pressure gradient to the south of this high.
The Evening Update: As upper low moves into the Desert SW tonite, onshore gradients will be increasing in its wake. The winds are not forecast to strengthen overnite as gradients should weaken as the low moves farther away happen. JHM Low pressure area over Southern California brought some showers to parts of the region earlier. Cooler air behind the low pressure area will filter into the region for Sunday for a brief cooldown back to near normal temperatures.
The low clouds look to be arriving around daybreak. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low 40s tonight with highs around 60 on Sunday and low temperatures Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.
208 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Fairly tranquil across the area in the warm sector of low pressure pushing eastward along the US/Canadian border. The aforementioned low will continue pushing east through Ontario today, pushing a weak cold front southward through the area. Will also see an increase in higher level cloudiness spread in in advance southern Plains low pressure.
958 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High clouds continue to spill into the cntrl TN Valley from the NW this late Sat evening, as a weak upper ridge axis remains in place over the wrn Gulf region. At the sfc, high pressure remains in place over the srn Atlantic states, thereby allowing a light E/SE flow into much of the region. All of this points to another relatively quiet night across the area, with overnight temps trending a few degrees warmer given the increased cloud cover/low level flow. Early morning temps Sun look to fall mainly into the lower 30s for most locations, with mostly cloudy skies continuing and moisture gradually spreading back into the mid TN Valley.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow before rain moves in with a low pressure system for the first half of the week. Previous Upper ridging will propagate eastward but remain strong enough over the area to keep dry and clear conditions. As a low pressure system approaches, clouds will start to move in from the south starting late tonight.
1200 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Sunday, as temperatures continue to warm.
1111 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure centered over Kentucky will continue to slowly move away from the area. As it does so, southwest winds will pick up and bring warmer air and moisture to the region. With sunshine, mixing, and continued warm advection at 700-850 mb, highs Sunday should be several degrees warmer than today. Upper low now moving into the southern California coast tonight will continue eastward through the weekend interacting with a significant IVT anomaly out ahead of it.
A southwest low level flow is keeping middle elevation locations along the mountains and parts of the plateau warmer in the lower to mid 40s but lower elevations of northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest North Carolina where winds have dropped off are in the lower 30s. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 42 53 50 64 / 20 90 100 100 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 40 52 48 64 / 10 80 100 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 55 40 51 47 64 / 10 90 100 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 38 50 44 63 / 0 50 90 100 20.
959 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2020 Upper level analysis shows nearly zonal/weakly ridged flow over the central states, with a low pressure system moving over CA, and an upper wave pushing into Alberta. The Canadian wave will sweep eastward along the US/Canadian border tonight, dragging a weak, dry cold front through the northern plains. The only noticeable changes will be a wind shift to the northwest and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday; however, models are showing warmer temps than previously, with highs still generally in the 40s. Aforementioned CA upper low will slide well to the south of the Dakotas Sunday/Sunday night.
1038 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Sunday, as temperatures continue to warm.
Though the moisture will increase and clouds lower, the lower levels look to remain dry enough for no precipitation to make it to the ground overnight. /GG/ Prior discussion below: The ArkLaMiss is currently being influenced by an upper level ridge and a strong high pressure that is now over over the Louisiana coastal line. This upper level ridge and high pressure will continue to shift east allowing the region to be dry the rest of the day, tonight and for part of the day Sunday. The previous mentioned upper-level ridge will get replaced with an upper-level long-wave trough which will help increased moisture bring the return of rainy weather late Sunday night.
Elsewhere, an upper level low pressure area developing over the Four Corners Sunday morning will move east into Oklahoma by late Sunday night.
313 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure centered over the SE coast will continue to slide east today. Overall, leaned toward the higher side of guidance given the steady warm advection component, and what at least some partial sunshine. This will put us in the low to mid 50s in most spots.
Sunday will be mild until the storm's cold front passes through.
307 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, with a continued warming trend.
A weak cold front currently located in northeastern Montana will slowly move south and pass through the area later this morning, but as winds swiftly switch to the south, they will pull in some warm air and keep Sundays highs reaching the 40s.
907 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 Quite night across Middle Tennessee and a bit warmer than yesterday at this time, although quite a range in readings with some upper 20s and lower 30s in the south and east counties but mid 30s to low 40s from the Nashville metro into the northwest counties.
High clouds continue to spill into the cntrl TN Valley from the NW this late Sat evening, as a weak upper ridge axis remains in place over the wrn Gulf region. At the sfc, high pressure remains in place over the srn Atlantic states, thereby allowing a light E/SE flow into much of the region. All of this points to another relatively quiet night across the area, with overnight temps trending a few degrees warmer given the increased cloud cover/low level flow. Early morning temps Sun look to fall mainly into the lower 30s for most locations, with mostly cloudy skies continuing and moisture gradually spreading back into the mid TN Valley.
Quite night across Middle Tennessee and a bit warmer than yesterday at this time, although quite a range in readings with some upper 20s and lower 30s in the south and east counties but mid 30s to low 40s from the Nashville metro into the northwest counties.
They shift east Mon as a low aloft the Four Corners region tracks toward the Great Lakes and dampens out - with broad troughing aloft moving into the Gulf coastal region. High pressure builds into the western Gulf region Fri then moves east Sat. High pressure moving east will ridge back across the east Gulf through Mon with winds gradually veering to south then southwest with speeds occasionally in the caution range. High pressure in the wake of the front shifts winds to northwest and north at caution to advisory speeds toward the end of the week. An approaching cold front will provide adequate moisture for high rain chances during midweek and will preclude low RH concerns until Fri when some drier to cool-cold air moves in.
This low will be getting a nudge eastward by the arrival of the next upstream system digging into the PacNW. The ascent from the low overhead and conditional instability will keep a threat of moderate to heavy snow showers at times today with the best focus over the central mountains. The northern San Juans will also be favored at times this afternoon and early evening as the flow turns northerly on the back side of the low. Cold northerly flow on the backside of the trough will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the area.
Dry and warmer conditions will return throughout most of the week as high pressure builds over the state. The low clouds are expected to dissipate during the day as the wind flow becomes more northerly. A warming trend will begin on Monday and continue through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the state and weak northerly to offshore flow develops. Medium range models continue to hint at rain chances a week from today when an upper low drops south from the Gulf of Alaska and then onshore over Southern California.
/issued 307 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture returns today, ahead of an upper low that will move east across the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon/overnight. It will be slightly warmer today with highs in the mid and upper 60s, with lows tonight in the 40s.
Clouds will continue to increase today as the ridge continues weakening and a boundary develops across the Northern Gulf Coast. Southerly winds will develop today around the backside of the retreating ridge. High temperatures today will be similar to maybe a few degrees milder with the warmer flow working against the increased cloud cover. The boundary over the Gulf Coast will move northward tonight into Monday as a warm front into Mississippi and Alabama. This will occur as the low pressure moves out of the TX/OK Panhandle and into Missouri, dragging a front across Texas into Louisiana.
Although I don't think everyone will hear thunder given the low levels of instability.
416 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Current sfc analysis shows a cold front progressing sewd across the wrn SD plains, with nwly flow over nwrn SD and W/SW flow elsewhere. Temps are not appreciably cooler behind the front, with 30s still observed across ern MT/wrn ND. Some cirrus is streaming across our srn tier as an upper low begins to impinge upon the srn stream ridging that has been in place the last couple of days. The srn stream upper low should remain to our south today.
244 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Current sfc analysis shows a cold front progressing sewd across the wrn SD plains, with nwly flow over nwrn SD and W/SW flow elsewhere. Temps are not appreciably cooler behind the front, with 30s still observed across ern MT/wrn ND. Some cirrus is streaming across our srn tier as an upper low begins to impinge upon the srn stream ridging that has been in place the last couple of days. The srn stream upper low should remain to our south today.