Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These warmer temperatures in combination with the area's high precipitable water air mass will help to keep this upward trend going probably into the afternoon hours. Trof situated across west Texas and favorable jet positioning will aid in large scale lift across NW & N parts of SE Tx. Ridge tries to edge in closer from the E/SE going into the weekend but still looks like higher end chc pops might still be in order. Not really expecting too much change with this pattern the next couple of days as this upper low lingers over the region. However as the week goes on we should begin to see a weaker gradient as the low weakens/moves to the NE. Pattern to remain rather messy through the duration of the 12Z TAFS as the upper low lingers over the region.
highs again today should top off at near 80 north to the lower 80s south.
Look for highs pushing into the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon while lows tonight drop back down into the 60s(F).
An upper level low south of the AL/FL line continues today with some mid and high cloudiness. Deep layer ridging over the atlantic between 30 and 40 Latitude dominates the area with a moist east and southeast flow. focusing the highest rain chances.
Shower activity will favor the higher terrain. The latest RAP analysis indicates the highest PWAT values slowly nosing northward into southern Yavapai county. This is in response to a weak area of low pressure moving into southern Nevada by this afternoon.
High pressure will remain over the Pacific Northwest through the week.
An upper level low moving ESE through NV today will help continue isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly in southern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties through the afternoon. Otherwise, we will see another upper low moving into this same basic area tomorrow.
622 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. As of 340 PM Thursday, a cold front will sink into the northern portions of the CWA early Friday before retreating slowly north during the day. Temperatures looks to be a degree or two cooler tomorrow with a bit more cloud cover and have opted to hold off on any Heat Advisories tomorrow as conditions will be a bit more marginal.
450 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Upper ridge offshore will be weakening as long wave upper level trough over the Great Lakes region amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
Upper level analysis across CONUS reveals a closed low moving into the Pac NW while mostly zonal flow continues across the Plains. Model sfc dew points will be in the low to mid 60s across most of the area.
CAPE should be sufficient to support convective development, especially from PIT on south, but the trigger for lift will come from the slowly advancing midlevel trough.
538 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Rather widespread cumulus and stratocumulus field this afternoon as upper troughing swings through the Great Lakes.
the broad 500mb trough which began to drop into the Great Lakes early this morning. Current progs suggest the base of the 500mb trough will exit east of Lake Huron around 12z Friday. while 500/300mb qvectors showing best forcing with upper trough influencing northern Michigan between 00z Fri and 06z Friday. while sfc dew pts around 60 this afternoon drop into the lower 50s overnight).
Fairly strong and deep layer ridging will remain situated across the north and central FL peninsula through this period. Very strong mid/upper level high pressure builds over the central CONUS through the period. The Bermuda ridge axis remains northward of central FL through the extended. Generally favorable boating conditions with the low- level ridge axis initially near the central peninsula lifting northward through the period allowing onshore flow to deepen.
Other convection continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado.
245 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Upper ridge offshore will be weakening as long wave upper level trough over the Great Lakes region amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
Cooler Friday night with significantly drier air over much of the area.
353 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 At 3 PM, a cold front was located across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower to mid-70s which is about 10F below normal.
A cold front will move southeast from Canada on Friday with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
Lows overnight to range from the lower 60s nw of IL river to the upper 60s in southeast IL.
A slow moving cold front over Central Indiana will push south of the state tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front is expected to build across central Indiana on Friday and keep dry weather across the state for the weekend. The next best chance for rain will be early next work week as a cold front sags into the ohio valley from the upper midwest. Cyclonic flow amid broad low pressure was in place across the Great Lakes. while HIgh pressure was found over Florida and low pressure was found across New Mexico. particularly across Southern Central Indiana will be attained in the lower 80s. Forecast soundings and time heights then go dry for the afternoon and evening hours as subsidence builds along with the arrival of high pressure.
The broad upper level trough continues to swing through the area this morning. A small disturbance embedded in the NW flow on the back side of the main trough will provide an increased chance for showers today. As an upper ridge begins to approach from the west tonight and Friday. A warm front looks to develop along the ND/SD border Friday night as an upper wave pushes east through the weak upper ridge centered in MT. A weak lead wave will push east along the warm front Friday night.
A third potential area is storms developing on the high plains of New Mexico/Texas/Colorado that may move toward the western portions of the forecast area this evening. But as we progress farther into the week, the upper ridge builds more strongly over the southern plains with the associated expectation of decreasing rain chances and increasing temperatures.
122 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front will move southeast across our area today, possibly causing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair weather is expected behind the front tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s. Another cold front will move through the area friday, possibly causing a few showers over southern michigan, northeast indiana, and northwest ohio. Highs friday will be below normal, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Frontal boundary rather broad/ill defined attm and will prbly become more diffuse today as wswly flow mixes down today with main upr level shrtwv movg through base of longwave trof bypassing our area to the north. Temps should be considerably cooler with more cloudiness and highs ranging from the m70s nw to the l80s se.
311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Broad troughing over the eastern states should push a surface front/boundary southward into the TN/OH valleys during the short term. weak low pressure remains in the vicinity of the northern Gulf. the line of thunderstorms moving through TN and AL should eventually affect northwest GA and have given that area the highest pops for tonight. have kept the highest pops over the north.
1226 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 With an upper level trough digging across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region, the northern Plains will see flow turn northwesterly. With cooler air aloft continuing to advect into the region, sunny skies this morning will become partly cloudy as cumulus clouds begin streaming into the area from the north. Increased instability in this area will also allow for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon near the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
309 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A few exiting light showers and lingering clouds are in the area, with cooler and drier conditions. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a strengthening upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, with 500mb height falls up to 70m over WI/MI. Moisture fields were messy in wake of the morning convection, but 8-15C dewpoints were noted in many areas east of the trough axes associated with the lows.
/Today/ Iowa will be on backside of upper trof today with drier air across the state. cooler airmass from Canada will graze the state with readings at or below normal across central Iowa.
High pressure aloft positioned to the south of Utah will maintain warm and very dry conditions through the balance of the week. An upper level trough will settle into the Pacific Northwest on Friday.
A cold front will move through the area today bringing more chances for rain.
Meanwhile the cold front is just now entering northwest MO and am concerned that there will be better coverage of thunderstorms with the front than is currently forecast. The cold front is still up over southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri. Northwest flow aloft looks like it should finally push the cold front southeast through the area by 18-21Z. Think this scenario looks reasonable if the low level jet develops as forecast.
A cold front will move through the area on Friday and may produce additional rain showers over the area. High pressure will then build over New York and Pennsylvania through the weekend. The cold front will move over the area and may produce additional spotty rain showers. Temps during the day on Fri are expected to range in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will build over the region through the weekend keeping most of the area dry.
Friday will be warmer as an upper level ridge transitions through the region with southwest flow aloft developing late in the day over western Montana.
Temperatures across the forecast area vary quite a bit due to the thunderstorms with readings ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. Model soundings depict a very unstable atmosphere throughout the Mid-South this evening with MUCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg, 0-3km lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid-90's, these highs coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70's could lead to heat index values near 105 degrees in some locations not impacted by convective thunderstorms.
Embedded in the zonal flow was an upper level short wave trough over Eastern Colorado. Ahead of the short wave trough a line of strong to severe thunderstorms had developed along a cold front that was moving south across the Tri-State Area. Models indicate the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the line of storms early this morning. During the late afternoon another upper level short wave trough will develop over the far western part of the area. The storm chances will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area this evening before the short wave trough fills later in the evening. Overnight another upper level short wave trough will approach the Tri-State Area from the north.
The next upper level low to impact the area will move from near Vancouver Island this evening, to northeast Washington by Friday afternoon. The low will then slowly weaken without moving much through the weekend, with cooler weather resulting and few, mainly light showers.
Upper level high pressure will remain in place across the area through this weekend. With the dry trend continuing, the main concern is the development and strengthening of an upper low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. As this intensifies and pushes against the upper high pressure over our area it creates a tighter pressure gradient aloft.
1117 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 08z surface analysis had weak trough across northern MN into southern ND. Upper low to the northwest of the region will continue to push a series of disturbances across the area through the weekend.
/issued 252 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging over Texas will keep the forecast area hot, dry and sunny today.
High pressure aloft positioned to the south of Utah will maintain warm and very dry conditions through the balance of the week. An upper level trough will settle into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. The strong west-to-east oriented upper ridge to the south of Utah will maintain dry and warm conditions heading to the weekend.
A second area of more scattered showers and thunderstorms exists across the south and west central portions of the state being enhanced by a broad upper low pressure system across the gulf coast.
Latest analysis shows fair skies with light westerly winds as drier and cooler air moves in.
Surface wise, a steady state Western Atlantic ridge is draped across Central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Weak high pressure building in overnight will allow winds to become light and variable. Lows should drop down into the low to mid 50s with drier air moving in from the north.
A cold front may push the warm, moist air to the south on Friday. Upper trough will be settling over the region by Friday evening.
1056 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected today.
However, subtle changes in position of upper ridge has allowed for a nw flow aloft pattern to infringe upon northern portions of the area. NW flow to continue Friday, and gradually weakening over the wknd as the upper ridge expands once again as it begins to move into the central plains.
657 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. The upper level trough to our west has supported convection from central AL into TN. Upper ridge offshore will be weakening as long wave upper level trough over the Great Lakes region amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance The air mass across the region will remain unstable across the region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Also, a short wave trough dropping in from the northwest may bring some showers/storms mainly to the western cwa later this afternoon and evening. Northwest flow responsible for cooler than average temperatures and low humidity today. Canadian high pressure begins to retreat east Friday, with 850mb temperatures increasing west river in return flow.
with the ridge axis shifting slightly south into the eastern/central Gulf by late Friday. This results in a weak but noticeable surface trof becoming slightly more pronounced across interior sections of Alabama and Mississippi on Friday. Aloft a weak area of low pressure noted in satellite imagery just to the southwest of the forecast area late this afternoon will open up tonight through Friday. but a weak trof aloft will persist just to the west of the region. Although the weak upper low will be opening into a trof on Friday. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 70s over most of the interior to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.
Will keep temperatures on the lower side of guidance for Friday as clouds and rain will inhibit significant temperature rises.
329 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Forecast area remains between an upper level ridge over west Texas and a weakness over the Gulf South/Lower Mississippi Valley. mainly over eastern portions with less influence of the ridge. the upper level ridge will shift slightly to the west and northwest.
Cooler Friday night with significantly drier air over much of the area. The model and ensemble guidance is in good agreement in transitioning the large scale flow pattern from quasi-zonal toward weak troughing downstream of an impressive upper ridge and heat dome building over the Rockies/Great Plains region.
Updated the afternoon pops with the latest HRRR guidance which delays the arrival of the higher pops until mid afternoon west. to the east scattered showers around the upper trough across eastern north dakota will continue but with only very modest rain amounts.
The first is currently over WY and this trof will cross SD and Nrn Neb today. This trof is a little stronger and will move into the Dakota's tonight.
A cold front will drop southeast across the region on Friday with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm confined to the mountains and foothills.
246 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the U. Today marks day 12 of KMAF's 38-day climatological peak, but a little relief may be on the way over the next few days as the ridge dislodges from its current position.
412 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A disturbance traveling along a westerly flow aloft will interact with an unstable airmass ahead of a cold front, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday when the cold front will be crossing the forecast area.
/issued 258 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ Upper level high over the SW CONUS/NW Mexico will remain in place although some westward translation is expected as a weak disturbance moves out of the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. This disturbance will help to drive a cold front into the Texas Panhandle. Indications are that storms may fire again this afternoon along the western edge of the Theta-E ridge which should be some 60-90 miles west of where it was yesterday. This trend has been seen for several days and given the added assistance of compressional heating ahead of the cold front, see no reason to cool things off. Finally, some slightly cooler temperatures are in sight for Friday thanks to a weak front, though they'll still be several degrees above climatological norms.
302 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Skies have become mostly sunny across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 90s. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the region.
The gfs/nam seems to latch on to this feature across central and eastern North Dakota Friday resulting in another round of convection friday in the warmer hours of the day.
Leaned toward the warmer guidance for highs due to the expected during the afternoon. Friday Night Through Thursday A temporary deamplification of the eastern NOAM upper trough will allow a more zonal regime to develop by the start of the weekend.
another complex of storms may develop across the high plains of NE tonight and propagate southward aided by low lvl moisture transport arriving across central KS during the day on Friday. Temperatures are expected to rebound nicely with highs climbing into the lower 90s across central/south central KS.
Diurnal heating leading to steep low level lapse rates, coupled with surface cold front/convergence will assure clouds (3-6 kft) developing over southern taf sites late morning/early afternoon. Westerly winds will then pick up above 10 knots again tomorrow, before weakening and shifting to the northwest- north late behind the cold front. The second in the series of weak and diffuse cold fronts was moving through Lower Michigan this afternoon. the GFS seems to be the outlier with the southward push of both the 850 and 500 mb cooler temps. Will lean toward the warmer solution, but still significantly lower than most of this past week.
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front across West Texas. /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ For the next few days, the upper level pattern will be defined by a ridge over the desert southwest and a broad trough across the Great Lakes. Thus far, the ridge has been too dominant to allow any convection across our CWA.
The upper flow pattern across CONUS and Canada consists of a broad trough across the north anchored by the Hudson Bay closed low and a smaller closed low over southern BC and the Pac-NW. The boundary between the hot air mass and the cooler trough to the north will push up to our forecast area, but not much into it. Friday night, the Pac-NW trough moves near the Divide without crossing it, backing local flow aloft to the southwest.
307 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A weak cold front will exit our area this evening but a small chance for thunderstorms still exists through early evening before cooler and drier air begin to work in. Fair weather is expected behind the front tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s. Another cold front will move through the area friday, possibly causing a few showers over southern michigan, northeast indiana, and northwest ohio. Highs friday will be below normal, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
/39 Broad troughing over the eastern states should push a surface front/boundary southward into the TN/OH valleys during the short term. weak low pressure remains in the vicinity of the northern Gulf. the line of thunderstorms moving through TN and AL should eventually affect northwest GA and have given that area the highest pops for tonight. have kept the highest pops over the north.
600 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front located across the Upper Great Lakes will move across the area late tonight into Friday. A ridge will build in behind the trough and slowly move east over the weekend.
301 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Rather widespread cumulus and stratocumulus field this afternoon as upper troughing swings through the Great Lakes.
337 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A surface cold front will continue to push well south of the CWA through the evening hours as a complex of thunderstorms ahead of the boundary enters southern Missouri. Storm chances along this boundary will decrease through the evening hours as high pressure settles further south.
with the weak open upper-trough swinging through. a cooler day with highs in the 80s are expected areawide.
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken tonight the complex of storms may move more to the southeast and toward our northwest zones. Cooler afternoon temperatures are expected areawide. The warmest temperatures will be in our west where the lowest pops will be carried.
411 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure becomes nearly stationary off the Southeast Coast through Friday.
Persistent heat and high pressure aloft will continue breezy afternoons and heat index concerns along/east of I-35 through at least Friday.
Upper trof persists across southern Alberta and across northeast Montana.
430 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front located across the Upper Great Lakes will move across the area late tonight into Friday. A ridge will build in behind the trough and slowly move east over the weekend.
An upper level low is located over northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the southern tip of the island by this afternoon and then east along the British Columbia/Washington border tonight. The main impact of the low will be tightened pressure gradients and breezy to windy conditions in the Kittitas Valley and Eastern Columbia Gorge this afternoon and tonight. In general, temperatures will be 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
A ridge of high pressure will stretch across the Western Atlantic and into central Florida, with Southerly flow bringing an increase in moisture over the area this period.
Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through the end of the work week as a 596 DM H5 ridge remains centered over west Texas that continues it's influence over the region.