Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
132 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Low pressure will move across New York tonight and Monday bringing cloudy skies and a chance of light rain showers and even a slight chance of thunder to northern New York overnight. A gradual clearing trend will take place Monday into Tuesday followed by mainly sunny skies through the rest of the week as high pressure moves south from Canada.
A long advertised upper low is moving into southern Oregon and northern Nevada this morning, with attendant 100 kt subtropical jet developing in the four corners region. This weather system will push a cold front across the intermountain west through the day, and also aid in the development of a dryline along the Texas/New Mexico border. Diffluent flow aloft will increase, especially this evening and early Tuesday, as the upper low continues to push across the Great Basin. All model guidance, including the Texas Tech WRF and HRRR, have come into agreement that fast westerly flow aloft will push the low pressure system with attendant cold front through the combined Panhandles around midday Tuesday.
An upper low over Michigan will work its way to the east and allow Indiana to get back into a southwesterly flow over the next couple of days.
Medium The Mid/Upper level ridge moves across Wisconsin this morning and is over the great Lakes tonight. Overall weak flow with surface ridging dominant. The low level thermal trough is is still situated across the area, so this is a setup conducive to more clouds than sun, and the NAM and GFS MOS are keeping mainly broken cloud cover this afternoon.
More unsettled, showery and cooler weather is forecast by Tuesday and into the end of the workweek. By the weekend, we could see a much wetter and slightly warmer weather pattern develop as an atmospheric river has its sights set on the Pacific Northwest. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Saddle point remains in the vicinity of the aviation area with a low pressure area tracking eastward along its southern edge.
420 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 (Today and Tonight) The area remains under upper level ridging early this morning, but that will change over the next 24 hours. A large and powerful trough currently moving through the Great Basin will move into the northern Rockies by tonight, increasing southwest flow and lift aloft in our area. Ahead of the trough during the day, low level southerly flow will increase, becoming somewhat gusty and increasing moisture across the area. This will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing tonight to our west and northwest over the higher terrain.
Upper trough is shifting east through the Great Basin into the Rockies and remaining showers have ended in the northern Sierra. Northwest flow on the backside of the trough covers NorCal, and satellite imagery shows plenty of cloudiness upstream moving our way.
moist conditions replaced by drier and much cooler conditions. Southerly flow is increasing aloft as our area is squeezed between an amplifying ridge over the central conus and the next storm system just now moving onto the left coast of Oregon. Expect mild temps with cloud cover and increasing surface winds with low pressure deepening to our west. The cold front appears to move into eastern Utah not long after sunrise and swing to the northern divide by early afternoon.
435 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build over the eastern United States through tonight. High pressure to the north of the area will expand east today, allowing a slightly more onshore flow to develop along coastal areas. The combination of the higher dewpoints across coastal GA and a weak coastal trough may allow for isolated showers or tstms later this afternoon. Tonight, as the high over New England begins to shift east, the weak offshore coastal trough will drift toward the coast. High pressure will remain north of the area while tropical cyclone Matthew moves north from near Cuba to the Bahamas.
the persistent H500 ridge continue to dominate the weather through the sort term period.
The trough axis has been slowly sliding south early this morning. Deep layer cyclonic flow persists over the area this morning as the closed low, now centered over western Upstate New York, only slowly migrates east. A few showers have been noted on radar within a corridor of weak troughing in the Thumb. Forecast soundings maintain ample moisture in the lowest 5kft capable of supporting clouds through most or all of the day. With the thermal trough lingering over the area, highs will likely reach the mid 60s at best. Heights will steadily rise this afternoon through Tuesday as North Pacific energy continues to pour into the evolving longwave trough over the western United States, culminating in a closed low that will lift into Manitoba midweek. In the meantime, the ridge over Lower MI will undergo any appreciable amplification until Tuesday.
We are currently sitting in the base of a broad trough with some shallow moisture still sitting in the low levels. As the trough lifts out of the area ridging will replace it.
251 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Weak low pressure will dissipate today as it moves into New England.
134 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure moves in tonight and stays through mid week. Therefore, will go on the lower side of MOS guidance for lows tonight in the northwestern counties were skies should clear, but will go with the warmer NAM MOS in areas where clouds should remain late in the night. High pressure then builds in and provides dry weather for Monday.
Thanksgiving will be dry and mild with most locations going above freezing for highs.
704 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Upper level short wave trough crosses tonight, outrunning a weak cold front that crosses Thanksgiving day.
The trough which produced shower activity across the area through the day has moved into SE Idaho, with little lingering influence over the area. The main issue in the immediate term is potential fog development across the low-lying areas.
That said -- the synoptic cold front remains well to the west of the CWFA as of this writing, and a few additional light showers may occur until the front arrives in nw AL just before sunrise. The cold front will cross the area tonight with only mild cold advection for tonight and Thursday since this is a strongly modified and mixed airmass of continental/maritime origin.
An upper level trough will move east across our area tonight, and at the surface a cold front will approach our western areas overnight. Lows should drop to the low-mid 50s inland, with upper 50s and lower 60s near the Gulf Coast.
Widespread stratus remains intact as of mid afternoon over much of the Dakotas and lower elevations of the central Plains owing a cyclonic low-level flow regime attendant to a synoptic cyclone over the upper Midwest.
A cold front will push through midday tomorrow, affecting winds only at all TAF sites. /issued 310 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Weak ridging across the SRN CONUS will give way to an approaching trough axis across the Great Basin. The bulk of the energy associated with this trough will pass to our north though, with the lack of moisture SFC-UNLTD, we won't see just a lot of effects other than a dry frontal boundary Thanksgiving afternoon.
Thanksgiving looks to be dry and generally seasonable, though the dry airmass moving in behind the front may result in slightly cooler lows and slightly warmer highs.
Another pleasant fall day continues across South Florida, with temperatures generally around 80 and high pressure to the north. The high pressure at the surface will gradually shift eastward into the western Atlantic during the short term period, with continued mainly dry conditions expected, outside of a few sprinkles/light showers across eastern areas. Moisture will slowly increase in the low-levels during the period, and with onshore easterly flow expected, scattered to occasionally broken stratocumulus will be possible across the region especially along the east coast.
Focus will be on Thanksgiving day as an upper trough passes overhead. Despite temperatures above freezing, this all points to rather big dendrites and a localized area of higher snow accumulations.
907 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Crossing low pressure is expected to bring rain to the area tonight through part of Thanksgiving.
At the surface, weak low pressure is located across northeast WY, with a weak surface boundary stretching from central MT into the NE Panhandle. By midday, a cold front will move through the area.
/issued 345 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ The upper low is seen well on the visible imagery over NE AR and is now moving quickly away to the NE as fresh high pressure off the plains builds Southeastward and deepens the NW flow upwards in the atmosphere clearing skies.
A mid-afternoon surface analysis showed an area of low pressure near St Louis with a warm front across Indiana and Ohio, and a cold front back across Missouri and Arkansas. Thursday night lows will range the lower 30s across southwest Indiana to near 40 across the Lake Cumberland region.
Cape Canaveral profilers show 15 knot east/southeast winds in the lower levels and the models show this moist flow continuing, so don't think the stratocumulus will completely go away. The clouds and slightly higher dew points should keep min temps in the lower-mid 60s along the coast and upper 50s to around 60 inland.
Valley freezing fog is possible after 24/1000Z, however none is anticipated at any of the major terminals.
Still have some patchy light rain in western Middle Tennessee as upper trough axis down through eastern Middle Tennessee this evening. Trough will work east next few hours with rain chances dwindling after midnight and mainly eastern areas and plateau.
857 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Satellite interrogation shows an upper level low moving northeastward across the Great Lakes and a cold front extending from Ohio to the northern Gulf Coast. As expected the front has lost most of its punch as the upper low lifts northeast, and the airmass is modified by the warmer Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front is going to push past Indiana from the west overnight and Thanksgiving Day. High pressure behind it will take charge of our weather into the weekend.
/issued 346 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ (Tonight and Thanksgiving Day) As high pressure builds over the region, look for beautiful Fall weather, across West Central Texas, for the next 24 hours. For Thanksgiving Day, winds from the south will return, and highs will range from the lower 70s to the mid 70s.
/issued 223 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Much cooler conditions across the area this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through last evening. Once the trough passes to our north a cold front will move south across the region tomorrow night.
852 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Scattered light rain showers continue to move through the region ahead of a cold front draped across west Tennessee as of 02z this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 67 46 69 / 40 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 65 46 64 / 50 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 66 48 65 / 50 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 61 41 62 / 50 30 10 20.
858 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure was centered over SE TX this evening. Thanksgiving looks to be dry and generally seasonable, though the dry airmass moving in behind the front may result in slightly cooler lows and slightly warmer highs.
As for snow, will keep chances over the south as weak trough near the Bighorn Mountains continues its approach. A short wave ridge is currently moving east across the Dakotas and providing some WAA over my west and is trying to erode clouds. Embedded mid level trough over the Intermountain West will propagate east tonight into the Rockies. Low pressure develops in response over the high plain of Wyoming and moves east into western SD by 12Z, then morphs into an elongated trough during the morning/early afternoon as it moves across central into eastern SD. Placement of the trough puts the favorable low level forcing right along the ND/SD border, which has been fairly consistent with the last several model runs.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to northwest/west-central Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will gradually filter into AR and break the clouds up, while temperatures and dew point temperatures are forecast to become close and fog formation will be possible.
There is some small potential for drizzle north of the low late on Thursday, but low level moisture currently looks a bit on the dry side so have not included in the forecast at this point.
The low clouds have held temps in the 30s and 40s this afternoon while to the west in good insolation, temperatures have reached the 50s. Have concerns for the potential for fog development on the edge of the low clouds and a couple of short term models suggest the fog may be dense. During the day on Thanksgiving, another band of low clouds are again expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. The cold front moves through during the afternoon with winds increasing from the northwest behind the boundary. Daytime temperatures for Thanksgiving are looking fairly seasonal in the 40 to 50 degree range for much of Nebraska and this will be dependent upon cloud cover again, with some warmer temps in the low/mid 50s forecast for north central Kansas.
Along the valley and the lakes and tree country of MN lighter winds have allowed visibilities to remain restricted, ranging from 1 to 5 miles generally as a fog, mist, drizzle, flurry mix, which has occurred under the saturated layer on the backside of the inverted trough pushing now into the Great Lakes. Temperatures continue to range in the low to mid 30s with clouds hanging in through the day Thursday.
00Z upper air sounding does still have a slight warm nose off the surface to keep the very slight chance of freezing rain, however the dryness of the layer and wet blub would lean towards solid precipitation overnight. Proton Previous Discussion Still expecting a slight possibility of freezing rain tonight, but elevated surfaces are the only threats for freezing. Remnants of it will move across the CWA tonight, bringing the chance of snow north, freezing rain in the central and rain SW.
The greatest concentration of the lower MVFR ceilings appears to be across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as moisture pools against the higher terrain.
643 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over Illinois will weaken as it moves toward the Central Great Lakes tonight.
949 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 CDFNT has now pushed east of SC LA, with drier and cooler air continuing to slowly filter in behind the boundary. By the afternoon on light northeast winds temps with be in the lower 70s most locations.
A dry cold front will bring gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures to the area on Thanksgiving Day.
905 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over Illinois will weaken as it moves toward the Central Great Lakes tonight.
Upper level trof with embedded s/wv energy making rapid progress ENE, with widespread rain showers along I-55 in SEMO, east across the rest of the CWFA.
High pressure influences will build across the mid state region Thu afternoon thru the weekend providing dry conditions and moclr to ptcldy skies. A dry frontal passage on Fri afternoon will eventually allow cooler air to work into the mid state, with temperatures closer to seasonal normal values over the weekend.
Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery is highlighting a shallow mid level trough over the northern Plains and weak ridging extending from the Bahamas into the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic is stretching across northern Florida, while a weak front is pushing into the western Gulf of Mexico. Through tonight and Thursday, as the mid level trough progresses east, it will remain far enough north to allow the low level ridge to hold in place over Florida.
Northwesterly winds of around 6-10 kts will continue this evening, but will relax overnight as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds will become south to southeasterly Thursday morning as high pressure moves to the east. Another cold front will approach the region Thursday night, but the accompanying north wind shift will hold off until just after the extended DFW TAF period. /ISSUED 329 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Cooler and much drier air has filtered into North and Central TX in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage.
This is climatologically favored and also depicted by several of the high-resolution models such as the HRRR and RAP. May initially be a cold rain in many locations but should quickly transition to snow as sounding falls to freezing or below in the low levels.
Cold front arrives arrives around 15z, 16z and 17z Thursday at DHT, GUY, and AMA respectively: shifting surface winds to northwest with afternoon gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. /Issued 357 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Dry west flow today ahead of an approaching trough on Thursday.
Winds have been rather breezy and gusty today, enhanced by a strong pressure gradient between a mid-Atlantic Ridge and an advancing trough, combined with deep mixing. Weakening dynamic forcing in addition to an abundance of dry air at the lower levels is causing a rapid reduction in rainfall along/ahead of the front. The cold front will cross the area tonight with only mild cold advection for tonight and Thursday since this is a strongly modified and mixed airmass of continental/maritime origin.
By the afternoon on light northeast winds temps with be in the lower 70s most locations.
A ridge of high pressure will slide across western Kansas late this afternoon into the evening shifting winds to more of a southerly direction. These southerly winds shift to the northwest tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through the area. Highs tomorrow are expected to range from the lower 50s across northern Kansas to around 60 degrees along the KS/OK border.
An progressive modest mid level trough was noted over Nevada early this afternoon. Expect lows in the U20s to M30s across the plains, with teens across the higher elevations.
546 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Latest 20z surface analysis indicates low pressure over western Illinois with trough extending north into western Wisconsin. Low pressure/trough and associated lift/forcing moves east into Michigan tonight.
The trough which brought widespread precipitation through the area overnight has shifted eastward into Nevada. Upper level ridging will bring a return to dry weather tonight and into Thanksgiving.
Weak high pressure will lead to dry conditions and locally breezy north winds through Thanksgiving Day.
Upper system and associated cold front has pushed well to the east and south of the region this afternoon. A large area of stratus has persisted over much of the lower Plains in its wake, and has been very stubborn to clear. Low temperatures may cool to near or just below freezing at the typical cold spots, however I'm not expecting any travel troubles from any potential freezing fog given very warm ground temperatures.
Cold front moved through the area early today and cleared out mid level moisture.
644 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Crossing low pressure is expected to bring rain to the area tonight through part of Thanksgiving.
914 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move offshore overnight as a cold front approaches from the west.
604 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Crossing low pressure is expected to bring rain to the area tonight through part of Thanksgiving.
537 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Cold front is just west of STL metro area as of 19z and continues to track east across forecast area. Most of the dynamics and moisture will stay north of the area while the attendant cold front moves through, so have kept the forecast dry.
632 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over southeast Wisconsin will move northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Thanksgiving Day. Persistent cyclonic low level flow/trapped moisture well into Thu as system occludes/anchors in northern Lower Michigan as trof axis takes on strong negative tilt.
601 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over Illinois will weaken as it moves toward the Central Great Lakes tonight.
531 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Weak southeasterly winds in advance of a cold front will allow stratus to back across north central Nebraska overnight and may provide for some patchy fog around dawn. Thursday night the northern plains trough continues to track towards the Great Lakes with ridge building across the Rockies.
717 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry high pressure will be off the coast tonight ahead of a weak front approaching from the west by morning.
Models showed the low moving into southern Wisconsin by 00Z and then continuing to northern Lower Michigan by midday Thursday. A mid level trough that was moving into western Wisconsin was forecast to pass east of the state by 12Z Thursday. Easterly flow over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan was keeping boundary layer temperatures in eastern Wisconsin warm enough for rain. Snow, or a mix of rain and snow, was falling in central and north central Wisconsin where temperatures were in the lower half of the 30s at 19Z. The western edge of the low clouds was from northeast Montana to eastern Oklahoma at 1930Z.
As for the main cold front, it is currently located near Little Rock and sliding this way.
Less confident with the low clouds in the return flow across the western Dakotas. Upper level ridge over MT will move over the area this afternoon. Upper level trough off the CA coast will move into the Northern Plains Mon with better than 100m height falls.
851 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning, clearing the area by this afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the cold front and settle over the Great Lakes for Monday.
1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front continued to make progress to the southeast across southern Missouri this morning. The Ozarks will see a dry cold front move through the region today.
945 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will push south through the area today and tonight, bringing a chance of showers. As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, the old frontal boundary will move back northeast as a warm front. Given sufficient heating along and ahead of the cold front, there could be a rumble of thunder over the southern two thirds of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. The cold front will push south of the Ohio region tonight. It will be much colder by Monday morning with lows ranging from the lower 40s north to near 50 far south.
1039 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front currently stretches from south-central Oklahoma into the southern portions of the Tulsa metro to near the far northwest corner of Arkansas. Low clouds are infiltrating behind the cold front this morning. Temperatures across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas will once again soar into the 80s as the cold front loses steam as it move south.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ A broad and not overly amplified UA ridge persisted across the southern U. In fact, temperatures may near/equate record warmth for a few locations this today and tomorrow which is indicative of the presence of the aforementioned UA ridge.
/issued 309 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will shift over the Mid South through the first part of this week.
Much of the CONUS will be under broad upper level ridging today, with the ridge axis extending northward through the Plains. A trough along the Pacific Coast will push eastward, while weaker troughing from the Great Lakes southward into Tennessee Valley crosses the Appalachians. Other than a very slight increase in high clouds across the far north, do not expect any effect on conditions from the Great Lakes trough. It will very quickly pull to the east tonight, as ridging builds across the southeastern CONUS. The ridge will strengthen and amplify up the East Coast through midweek.
1006 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Weak low pressure will move well to the south of the state tonight.