Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight and Tuesday The main forecast focus remains on precipitation trends for late this afternoon/early evening for diurnally-driven showers/storms and Tuesday afternoon associated with an approaching cold front. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed weak high pressure over eastern and southern sections of the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure was situated near Lake Winnipeg with a cold front extended south-southwest through central sections of the Dakotas.
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Starting to see convection fire up along the cold front as it advances southward across ND and into extreme northwest SD. Then, there should be some degree of filling in along the cold front as it moves south. Have a feeling some of the low end POPs Tuesday morning may be overdone a bit, with many locations staying dry.
303 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure through Tuesday.
443 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region early tonight.
300 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mainly dry over the next few days. The majority of the region will remain under the influence of a fair weather high pressure system. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that heights aloft will begin to fall this period, as a large-scale upper trough digs into the northern Lakes region. Although the associated surface cold front will still be well upstream at this time across the Midwest, and slow moving at that, there appears to be enough instability and moisture advection into CNY/NEPA by afternoon for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The upper-level trough over the eastern part of the country today will de-amplify through Tuesday, with a near zonal flow aloft returning to the region. At the surface, the remnants of Emily will continue to push northeastward through Tuesday with high pressure suppressed well to the south.
An upper trough crossing Quebec will push a weak cold front southward into upstate NY. Latest guidance suggests isolated convection will develop in vicinity the Lower Lakes which may drift over the northern tier of central PA during the afternoon/ early evening. Humidity will slowly increase today and Tuesday, and will become noticeable as sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 60s for most by this evening. and to the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday. Lead impulses rotating through the base of the trough combined with diurnal instability will maintain chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wed-Thu.
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure prevails through mid week.
343 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A broad ridge at 500 hPa is currently centered over south central Texas this afternoon.
337 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Current observations are showing some showers and low topped thunderstorms developing downstream of a 700-500 hPa positive tilted trough with its axis over the northwestern Panhandles. Upstream of the trough axis, some mid level dry air intrusion in- conjunction with a region of mid level convergence is inhibiting some thunderstorm activity across the far northern TX and OK Panhandles.
303 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure to the north will keep the weather dry and seasonable.
430 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will end by midnight as a weak cold front swings through the region.
301 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A weak cold front will sag south across the area tonight with high pressure moving in behind it for Tuesday.
Low CIG and MVFR VIS will possibly develop AFT 01/06Z as a weak cold front approaches the region and interacts with moist environment. Convection developing over the higher terrain and mountains of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado will propagate southeastward into the Panhandles during the afternoon and nighttime hours.
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) The upper level high pressure system will move off to the west today as the upper level trough located across the Midwest continues to move southeast. Low temperatures will likely fall into the lower 70s in most areas tonight. (Tuesday night through Monday) Stronger northwest flow aloft develops midweek as upper ridging weakens and moves west.
At the beginning of this period, the upper trough is still in place over the eastern U. and at the surface our area is still under the ridge although it is weakening.
406 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure at the surface over the southern Great Lakes this afternoon with the remnants of the weekend cold front over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Easterly winds around the Great Basin upper high pressure has aided in the development of a few showers across the area this afternoon, but most of the area has remained dry.
308 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Dry weather will continue into tonight as high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area. However, this ridge will slowly shift east into tomorrow which will allow warmer temps and higher dewpoints into the area. This return of warmer temps and moisture will also increase the instability across the CWA. Warmer temps will return with the ridge shifting east and return flow coming back to the area. Still unsure if there will be a boundary, but with the ridge further east and more return flow of moisture will have chance pops for Wed and then reduce it to slight chance over most of the area for Wed night.
Cold front just east of Winnipeg to Langdon to Leeds ND to west of Bismarck at 330 pm will move east thru the rest of the aftn/eve and with 3000-4000 j/kg sfc based cape see no reason for storms not to continue to form along the front. Tuesday will see north wind at drier and a bit cooler air. Brief high pressure nosing but some 850 mb moisture around so probably some daytime cumulus.
304 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure through Tuesday.
A quiet morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface helping to promote a mostly clear sky and dry conditions across the region today. The upper ridge starts to break down tonight with any afternoon cumulus dissipating with sunset. High level clouds should remain which will keep lows a bit warmer than previous nights, in the mid to upper 60s. This won't have too much of an impact on highs, maybe a deg cooler than what is forecast for today (Monday).
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The period will start with ridging over the southwestern CONUS and northwest flow over the CWA. Dry air in place across the region following the cold frontal passage this past weekend will keep conditions quiet through the overnight and again on Tuesday. /TW/ Northwest flow around an upper ridge over the western US aloft combined with the influence of high pressure will help to keep dry conditions for Tuesday night.
259 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Forecast concerns this period focus on the thunderstorms and severe weather threat associated with a cold front moving through central North Dakota late this afternoon.
323 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected. Upper ridge axis across NRN California will keep us in a SE flow across the region with continued warm temperatures. A developing low pressure center off the SOCAL coast will work in conjunction with the ridge to pump up moisture into the region.
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure prevails through mid week.
305 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build south and east into the Mid Atlantic region through mid week. The surface-based stable dome extending through the Piedmont will bring very light NE or near calm air through tonight, and with current low dewpoints likely to recover minimally, good nocturnal cooling should allow for lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the typically cooler areas of the western Piedmont and northwest Sandhills. High clouds just ahead of this approaching trough will spread into the area, thickest over the western CWA, where skies will be fair with milky sunshine, while eastern sections will see greater insolation. Lows in the low-mid 60s.
251 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Another mild night in store for north and central Georgia as dry high pressure continues to be the main influence over the region.
Area radars show diurnally-driven convection over the higher terrain, but this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating. In the low levels the NAM12 is consistent too, depicting that the MCS will feed into the mstr flux maxima/theta-e ridge which favors core of MCS slowly propagating from Lea-Gaines into Winkler Co. Supportive of this is difluent 85h-3h thickness indicating some back-building potential? A lesser 2nd round of storms will be possible late Tue PM when the main mid level trof axis within nw flow aloft moves thru. Deeper mid level drying in wake of theta-e ridge continues to favor Wed PM-Thur PM as down days.
213 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Upper level analysis shows a wave moving out of the northern plains, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a trough/cold front stretches across ND into southeastern MT.
At the surface, an expansive high pressure system was centered over the upper Midwest with a ridge axis stretching back west through northeast KS. Think this may help keep temps a degree or two warmer and have lows forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. Mid week through the weekend, the upper pattern will exhibit the general western ridge and eastern trough pattern with mainly northwest flow through the central CONUS. There isn't a significant chance of rain or storms making their way into the area on Tuesday night, but if an overnight complex from the high plains can maintain itself there could be some showers make their way into western and northern counties around the KS/NE border area.
We are seeing partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies around the area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Cloud bases underneath some of the heavier radar echoes were up to 10k feet and quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels.
239 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A developing northwest flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures to Montana over the next few days.
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week.
245 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Aviation An area of high pressure will remain over the region today through Tuesday providing most regions with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures.
127 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mainly dry over the next few days. The majority of the region will remain under the influence of a fair weather high pressure system.
136 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Fair weather with below normal temperatures and humidity will prevail the next few days as Canadian high pressure works into the region.
142 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
High pressure in the wake of yesterday's winter storm has kept most of Minnesota sunny to partly cloudy today. A nearly stationary front extended south from the trough through the Red River Valley. However, with limited moisture across the board, the highest snow totals will likely be around 2 inches. The initial period continues on the light snow showers across the Arrowhead and portions of the north shore of Lake Superior as drier conditions take hold due to the arrival of the upper level ridge.
554 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as upper level ridging dominates the region.
935 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to move northeast of the region, but cold air behind the system will keep cloudy skies in the forecast through tomorrow.
541 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. It has brought dry and a bit cooler air. The lower stratus clouds over parts of far northern AR earlier has thinned and moved northeast.
GFS sounding progs over the Plateau bring freezing levels down to support snow(as the active precip type if it occurs) just aft 00z.
A warm front with widespread mid-level clouds has produced only light precipitation, mainly confined to Baker County Oregon and the west central Idaho mountains. A cold upper level trough centered off the northwest coast will gradually deepen tonight and Wednesday as the associated cold front remains nearly stationary along the Washington/ Oregon/northern California coast.
640 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 A trough of low pressure will move east across the area tonight as a low pressure system moves from the central Great Lakes to Maine.
621 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Went ahead and added the mention of flurries and patchy freezing drizzle across the northern valley into northwest Minnesota for the rest of the evening. Enough lift ahead of weak warm front to cause this light precipitation.
Dense CI to persist as upper level jet remains overhead, but lack of moisture in the lower levels will preclude any CIG issues. Very quiet conditions continue as high pressure is settled over the state. By Wednesday afternoon/evening, high pressure ridge will start to slide east of the state allowing for a more easterly flow into the area. Low temperatures tonight should be slightly warmer than last night, but much of the west/north could dip into the upper 30s. Highs tomorrow just a bit cooler, in the mid 60s.
850 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 A few reports of light freezing drizzle have been noted in the northeastern part of the central IL forecast area in Vermilion and Champaign counties this evening. Have included a few hours of freezing drizzle mention in the evening update in this area. A weak mid level trough and associated vort max will move through the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Some models are dry with this trough and some produce very little qpf. However, in this kind of environment in the winter, weak troughs with a mid level vort max, and some lower level cloud cover can easily wring out some scattered flurries.
350 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 Offshore flow and a building upper level ridge will bring a few days of substantial warming to the region.
307 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 Flat upper level ridge will build across the forecast area through Wednesday. Cross sections show flow increasing to around 35 knots so the wind prone areas will likely see peak gusts reach 45-55 mph, mainly over the higher peaks and higher wind prone ridges in the foothills. A progressive upper air pattern is forecast to continue across the United States through the upcoming week with a series of open troughs and upper level ridges passing over Colorado. Wednesday night will start out with the upper level ridge axis over eastern Colorado, on the move eastward.
658 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Aviation Cooler air will rest over the region through mid week.
GOES-16 water vapor shows high level clouds moving in over the ridge with increasing moisture from the next disturbance currently over the Pacific. Also added a slight increase of winds over the higher terrain with gusting through the afternoon up to 60 mpg over the higher mountain passes. Flat upper level ridge will build across the forecast area through Wednesday. Cross sections show flow increasing to around 35 knots so the wind prone areas will likely see peak gusts reach 45-55 mph, mainly over the higher peaks and higher wind prone ridges in the foothills. A progressive upper air pattern is forecast to continue across the United States through the upcoming week with a series of open troughs and upper level ridges passing over Colorado. Wednesday night will start out with the upper level ridge axis over eastern Colorado, on the move eastward.
By 15z Wednesday, lee trof begins to take shape over eastern New Mexico, with southwest surface winds commencing to gust into the 25 to 30 kt range, with such winds continuing through the day. /Issued 132 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ An upper level ridge will translate across the southern high plains Wednesday and Wednesday night.
slightly more along the ridges. Cold northwesterly flow is expected to maintain snow chances in lee of the Lakes and in the higher terrain through Wednesday, but conditions thereafter will be of improvement as building high pressure drys and warms the weather in advance of another Wrn CONUS trough. The advance and passage of the aforementioned trough is timed to degrade conditions via rain for the weekend, and cool temperature back toward the average for the start of the new week. Restrictions are possible until high pressure builds Wed night. Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front.
850 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 A cold front continues to make slow progress across the southern Florida peninsula. Cooler drier air will advect in behind the front, with areas along the Nature Coast falling to around 40 degrees by sunrise Wednesday. A cold front continues to move south across the region, allowing winds to become northerly. Breezy north/northeast winds will fill in behind a cold front as the pressure gradient tightens. As strong high pressure builds in north of the waters through the week, expect periods of cautionary to borderlined advisory conditions, especially overnight with nocturnal easterly wind surges.
547 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 A broad low pressure system continues to push east northeast out of the region. A look at recent satellite trends show the low clouds slowly eroding from the southwest in central and southeast Missouri. An upstream short wave trough will rotate around the base of the broad trough and will provide a chance for snow flurries early Wednesday morning over parts of northeast Missouri and western Illinois. It will be warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s with southwesterly winds.
859 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 High pressure will build from the West Tonight, with cooler and drier air filtering into the region.
802 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 The trough centered over the Great Lakes continues to lift northeast this evening, resulting in strong quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Mid-South. Temperatures range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s across parts of North Mississippi.
Cold front oriented NNE-SSW from SGJ-PGD this eve will continue pushing east reaching the NW Bahamas and FL Straits by daybreak. A cooler NW flow will overspread the area behind the front with lows in the upper 40s across Lake and Volusia counties, mid 50s metro Orlando warming to the lower 60s Treasure coast. Wind shift out of the NW will overspread the terminals tonight behind a cold front but wind speeds will remain less than 10 knots with VFR conds. Winds will increase out of the north behind a cold front, reaching 15 knots late tonight over the open Atlc.
201 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 Offshore flow and a building upper level ridge will bring a few days of substantial warming to the region.
554 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Temperatures will remain the primary concern in this forecast period along with potential for fog as warmer air returns to the region. A higher layer of clouds over central and eastern Nebraska was overtaking the low cloud layer. This higher layer was in association with a mid level trough moving across the central plains this afternoon. Warmer readings in the mid to upper 30s were just upstream of the area along with less cloud cover.
528 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 A weak mid level trough and associated vort max will move through the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Some models are dry with this trough and some produce very little qpf. However, in this kind of environment in the winter, weak troughs with a mid level vort max, and some lower level cloud cover can easily wring out some scattered flurries.
An upper low will be tracking through to our north over the next 24 hours.
417 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 00Z TAF CYCLE Generally northwest flow aloft next 18-24 hrs with a weak upper low circulation southwest of the NM bootheel. Surface lee trough to develop by 24/15Z.
GFS sounding progs over the Plateau bring freezing levels down to support snow(as the active precip type if it occurs) just aft 00z. Clouds associated with an upper level low will continue to impact all terminals during the taf period.
622 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Cold front will move offshore this afternoon with breezy conditions into this evening.
843 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 Just completed to make some adjustments to the low temperatures. Looks like temperatures will be a little warmer than expected in the eastern portion of the area.
604 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Cold front will move offshore this afternoon with breezy conditions into this evening.
Updated to add patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the forecast through 06Z or so, as model soundings show most of the moisture will reside below the -10C level for several more hours. slightly more along the ridges. Cold northwesterly flow is expected to maintain snow chances in lee of the Lakes and in the higher terrain through Wednesday, but conditions thereafter will be of improvement as building high pressure drys and warms the weather in advance of another Wrn CONUS trough. The advance and passage of the aforementioned trough is timed to degrade conditions via rain for the weekend, and cool temperature back toward the average for the start of the new week. Restrictions are possible until high pressure builds Wed night. Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front.
937 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Weak warm front passing slowly across the area and has entered the Minnesota side of the RRV. Ahead of the boundary within the WAA enough lift is causing freezing drizzle and flurries along with fog reducing visibilities down to 3 to 4 miles this evening.
947 AM PDT Thu May 18 2017 An Eastern Pacific high pressure will begin to build in today through this weekend.
The overall weather pattern has an upper ridge exiting the area with a weak frontal boundary moving in for today.
Currently, temperatures falling well into the lower to middle 30s across much of western and central North Dakota as colder air settles in across the region. Cold mid level temperatures associated with the high pressure will moderate today though not expecting much temperature recovery at the surface with highs once again mainly in the 50s.
633 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Closed low that affected western Nebraska yesterday moving into the Great Lakes this morning. Large Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will bring our next round of precipitation today. Models seem to have a good handle on the upper low spinning over the Great Basin early this morning. Diffluence aloft over western Nebraska today with slow moving upper low moving east. Temperatures this evening and over night should remain high enough to keep and snow away from the Pine Ridge.
Still some question of where warm front will be located this period, with NAM a bit south of others, but that is probably due to its more agressive precipitation on front during the day. Also a question when storms would initiate on warm front.
Low level moisture will be in place but higher level moisture will be lacking in the Southwest flow aloft between ridging aloft across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and up the Eastern Seaboard and a closed upper low over Utah, that covered much of the Southwest and the Rockies. Not expecting much in the way of showers and thunderstorms today for our area until the afternoon when heating may combine with weak disturbances riding through the flow aloft that eject around the base of the upper trough to our west and move over our region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 68 89 67 / 30 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 85 66 / 20 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 86 67 86 66 / 20 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 85 62 / 20 20 50 20.