Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mild temperatures are otherwise in store today, with highs in the mid 80s and lows tonight in the lower 60s.
NO HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
Better rain chances will develop tonight as the low-level jet interacts with the approaching warm front.
849 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016 A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE LOW CENTER IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK.
Dry and warmer weather continues with temperatures warming into 80s by mid-week.
931 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN IS EXPECTED.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM SRN UT INTO WRN NEB. -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD BUT ARE BATTLING UPR RIDGE ACRS MT AND MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SRN ZONES WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY. TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OVER NCNTRL NEB AND DRIFT NWD THROUGH CNTRL SD DURING THE DAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL SD.
Dry and warmer weather continues with temperatures warming into 80s by mid-week. The HRRR is indicating that showers will quickly diminish in our CWA between 8-10 am making way for a fairly dry and warmer Mother's Day. Warming trend continues into mid-week as high pressure ridging continues to influence the west coast with dry and warm weather.
Have lowered PoPs accordingly, although still have high chance to likely for an hour or two over central Missouri this afternoon as the ridge moves east of the Mississippi river.
Much of the severe threat should be over by around midnight north and east of Dodge City as the upper trough moves northeastward. For Monday, the base of an upper level low and cold pool rotates into western Kansas with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and early evening.
754 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH H85 NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN MS BY LATE IN THE DAY. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
The boundary will lift back north as a warm front.
1047 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW REPOSITIONING ITSELF THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECTED TO EJECT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH NORTHERN ACTIVITY INCREASING AS WELL AS WE SEE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND GENERALLY AT THE TOP OF OUR PASSES. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORCING BECOMING PRIMARILY OROGRAPHIC WITH SHOWERS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG THE DIVIDE.
756 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL CLEAR THE REST OF IT IN THE MORNING. A TROUGH ALOFT OVER JAMES BAY WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A STRONG VORT MAX/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DELMARVA SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD RIDE OVER THE WEAK RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HELPED PUSH THE MARINE LAYER INLAND OVERNIGHT HAS PASSED TO THE EAST, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE AFTN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE LOWER BASIN NEAR FALLOW FIELDS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BY 5-10 DEGREES.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTED FROM THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL DEEPENING. KRSL/KGBD WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE.
827 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016 RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. BRINGING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON WITH A LITTLE DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY DUE TO THE TYPICAL HIGH/LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION. THE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DAMPENING OF A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH A MORE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MORE OF THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AREA/CAP IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
649 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LOW NUDGES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
/ISSUED 131 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E.
MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE LOWER BASIN NEAR FALLOW FIELDS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BY 5-10 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DICTATED WEATHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OBSERVED IN COOS COUNTY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE TODAY. THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE INDICATED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING A PIECE OF ENERGY AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE DOWN ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 521 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ PATTERN TRANSITION IS WELL UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS HELD SERVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST. ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PIVOTING UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS INCREASING SW FLOW PULLS IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. EXPECT GULF MOISTURE INFLUX TO REALLY RAMP UP IN RESPONSE JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO SWING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IN THE MEANTIME. THE TROUGH WILL REALLY BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ON MONDAY WHILE TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST ACROSS KANSAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. IT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY A BIT BETTER AS A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE SRN IA/NRN MO BORDER BY 00Z AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. KEPT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS GRIDS GIVEN THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT ACROSS THE NORTH.
1209 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY. BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH NWD PROGRESS THROUGH TUE. WHILE N OF THE WARM FRONT THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MON IN THE MID 60S. MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. THE DAILY POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN SUFFICIENT MORNING HEATING TO PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION AND THE TRAVERSAL OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEW GUIDANCE THIS MORNING CONFINES AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE WHICH IS ALREADY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS STILL IMPACTING OUR WEATHER. THROUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OF OREGON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
949 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A H5 TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO GA. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.
A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PASSED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT. AND WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHICH HAVE GENERALLY BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DELIVER MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
PLEASANT MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMP TREND THIS MORNING IS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLIES AND ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE HIGHS FOR TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES STARTED FROM VERY MILD UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXCEPT COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NE FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS TN THIS FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BC/ALBERTA. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ALBERTA LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES MORE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NE TODAY AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN. ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.
1026 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH H85 NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH H85 NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
A SECOND 5H LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WHICH WILL PUSH A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STILL THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS THE SUN RISES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.
Kinematics remain favorable as southwestern upper low advects into Central Plains leading to 40-50 knots of bulk shear.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE REGION, WITH A FEW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PEAKS AND SNOW FIELDS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES.
1204 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY CANADA WITH A POWERFUL 140KT JET AT 300 MB SWINGING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WILL BRING BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DELMARVA SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD RIDE OVER THE WEAK RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF AS THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
Warm front has diffused a bit over north central Kansas, where showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued in these overnight hours, but boundary is generally north of I70. Given the high instability though localized hail and damaging wind will be possible in the afternoon and evening.
726 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FROM TN TO NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN AN EASTWARD MARCH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOCAL BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TIGHTENING PRESSURE FIELD ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
1004 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 The forecast is on track this morning with dry and clear conditions as high pressure continues to dominate. As low level ridging shifts eastward today, winds will become southerly this afternoon, beginning a return flow of moisture from the northern Gulf waters. Upper level ridging will keep skies clear once again and afternoon temperatures will climb even higher than yesterday-peaking in the upper 80s across inland portions of the area.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
936 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A high pressure ridge in the forecast area will weaken today ahead of an approaching warm front.
This low will continue to move NE across middle TN tonight with preceding warm front lifting north across the area tonight. Significant slug of moisture currently east of the low over Southern Mississippi will be pulled NE across our area overnight allowing for rainfall totals of 1-2 inches possible over the southern third of our area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 55 69 54 / 80 100 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 53 67 54 / 50 90 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 52 67 54 / 60 90 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 46 64 47 / 20 90 50 10.
The light westerly wind will bring drier and warmer conditions to S TX Today.
Areas that hold the fog/stratus longer will stay cooler today. Models continue to show the potential for some light drizzle or freezing drizzle, so did keep that mention too.
An upper level trough along the West Coast will weaken and move inland today and fall apart by tonight as another trough in the eastern Pacific arrives offshore to take its place. The arriving trough will spread more precipitation across the region Friday and Friday night. This will mainly be a rain and snow event but will need to watch closely as the cold air pool along the east slopes of the Cascades and over the Lower Columbia Basin will complicate the forecast. There could be a slight potential for some freezing rain along the Foothills of the Blue Mountains and the eastern portion of the Lower Columbia Basin by Friday night.
Expect MVFR to near IFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands this morning before drier air filters into the CWA this afternoon as a 500mb low/trough moves through Texas today. /issued 354 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb low/trough across the south central United States and west Texas this morning will move eastward bringing an end to elevated convection across the CWA this morning except across the coastal sections. This will allow temperatures to be warmer today compared to yesterday especially across the western portions of the Rio Grande valley and northwest ranchlands as the lack of cloud cover this afternoon will not inhibit diurnal heating.
/12z TAF/ Radar shows shower activity and a few isolated thunderstorms moving into the Houston area from the SW as an upper level trough axis begins to move through the region. Lift from the trough is acting to enhance the convection so added VCTS/TSRA to TAFs to start. However, the area will again come under the influence of an upper trough moving overhead and the right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet maximum which in turn will help generate showers and thunderstorms once again mainly this morning.
There may be some improvement to mvfr later today, as drier air moves in behind low pressure traversing eastern Arkansas. Low pressure forming along the front is located in the vicinity of west central Louisiana. The low will give the frontal boundary a push out of the region later today, but not before additional showers affect central and eastern Arkansas. Upper trough moving out of the big bend area of Texas should send any deep layer moisture out of the region tonight and Friday. Friday should be dry and warm, with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s across the area.