Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Even some of the model runs from last evening were insisting there should be a convective complex over the lower Arkansas River Valley around 03z when, in actuality, the placement was north and south of the lower Arkansas Valley but not anywhere near the valley itself. This area will be near the nose of the low level jet, close to the axis of best moisture convergence and shear.
354 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 MSAS Analysis this afternoon centers the sprawling Canadian surface anticyclone over portions of Ontario and Lake Huron.
320 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeastward along the east coast tonight through late week. as high pressure builds over the region from the west. Remainder of eastern NC: Gradually improving conditions are expected across most of eastern NC overnight as Post Tropical Storm Hermine continues slowly offshore and high pressure begins to build into the area from the northwest. Most of eastern NC will be under the influence of building high pressure with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and mid 70s coast. The remainder of eastern NC will experience dry weather with increasing warmth and humidity especially late week as high pressure surface and aloft prevails over the area.
High pressure will begin building into the southeast Sunday afternoon, with drier air moving into southeast Georgia by the evening. Upper ridge will be centered over Gulf Coast states with troughing along southeast coast.
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Another warm and sunny day for Central Illinois, and the pleasant weather will continue into tomorrow as high pressure remains in control of the region. Tomorrow will be similar, with afternoon cumulus and winds becoming a little more southerly as the ridge axis slips to the east.
With an upper level trof being ovr the western U. High temps on Sun are expected to be a little above average acrs the southeast plains, and around average in the high valleys.
/issued 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016/ Will start the day with the sub tropical ridge extending westward across TX and NM with an upper trough over the west coast.
127 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the Labor Day weekend. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place today. Hermine will remain just off the mid atlantic coast through the Labor Weekend as high pressure and subsidence remain in place across the Ohio Valley region.
(Issued 1023 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move northeast along the eastern seaboard. Very dry air aloft is in place over the area, courtesy of a strong upper level ridge extending south from the Great Lakes region into northern Alabama. Barron (Issued 1023 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move northeast along the eastern seaboard. Very dry air aloft is in place over the area, courtesy of a strong upper level ridge extending south from the Great Lakes region into northern Alabama.
This drier air will remain in place overnight and will allow for another night of "cooler" temperatures.
Model guidance indicates cirrus will be the main cloud type today, and that there could be some thinning of the high clouds as they move eastward. Low pressure and a frontal boundary will gradually move eastward across the Red River Valley tonight and Sunday. An area of low pressure and a frontal boundary will move into western Minnesota Sunday night into rich moisture with PWAT values around 1.
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Upper level high pressure continues to be found over the western Great Lakes. This position has allowed cirrus and more widespread cumulus over the CWA than previous days when the high was farther west.
Conditionally unstable trof of low pressure continues to linger over the area.
Seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s have made for a beautiful day for any outdoor activities. However, warmer temperatures and increased dewpoints will return over the next several days. High pressure will gradually shift eastward, allowing decent return flow back into the region. Upper ridge gradually begins to break down by mid-week as Hermine finally begins to move up the eastern coast and trough translates across the Northern Plains.
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Aloft: SW flow is over the Cntrl Plains with a longwave trof along the W coast and a ridge over Ern N America. This trof will cont E and cross the fcst area this eve. The highest we've seen is over 1. The Wrn trof will deamplify and height falls will spread E across the Nrn USA with a broad trof developing (almost zonal at times). What's left over the Wrn trof lifts thru the Nrn Plains Wed followed by a strong trof Fri. Temps will average warmer than normal until the second front plows thru Thu night. Then temps will turn a little cooler than normal. Model consensus indicates MVFR or IFR stratus will redevelop after 06Z with the lowest CIGs are EAR.
The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest with a general troughy pattern across the western states. Southwesterly flow will continue into Sunday as the previously mentioned trough of low pressure currently digging into the Pacific Northwest passes through Great Basin towards the Northern Rockies. As this low continues towards the Northern Rockies it will drag a surface boundary across Utah and Western Colorado. With the exception of a few isolated storms over the higher terrain early Sunday morning, drier weather is expected.
A trough remains over the Pacific Northwest this morning. There is not much moisture with this wave so have limited a slight chance of showers to the higher terrain of the mountains this afternoon and tonight.
1140 AM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the pac nw with sw flow aloft through the nrn plains. Temps should be about 10 degrees cooler behind the front from nern WY into nwrn SD. Upper trough will remain across the western US early in the week then slowly move east across the plains midweek.
An upper level ridge will continue to develop across the ARKLATEX into Florida on Sunday.
119 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure centered over Southern Ontario will gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
With mostly clear skies and dewpoints hanging in the low/mid 60s for one more night, looking forward to another pleasant night of temps in the mid/upper 60s. The ridge will then begin to return moisture into the area while post tropical storm Hermine lingers along the east coast. As an upper-level trough pushes in from the northwest late in the week, our ridge will break down and Hermine will finally venture away from the coast. The GFS is flattening the ridge faster and pushing out the drier air faster than the ECMWF, so that could play a role on precip/cloud cover/temps near the end of the forecast package.
high pressure is dominating the weather and the forecast is humming along nicely. Temps will mix out about 20 degrees or so from morning lows in the upper 50s and climb into the low 80s with 1000-850 llvl thicknesses of 1400 m. An early morning surface analysis showed the center of Tropical Storm Hermine located near Cape Lookout, North Carolina while high pressure was located over Lake Superior. Northeasterly flow in between across the lower Ohio Valley continues to bring dry and pleasant weather. For today, plan on a repeat of yesterday with mostly to partly sunny skies, highs in the low 80s and comfortable humidity levels. By Sunday, Hermine becomes post-tropical and stalls off the mid- Atlantic coast while high pressure holds to the north across the Great Lakes.
321 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Thunderstorms continue over the high country. the question is whether we flush the low level moisture to the border per the nam. or does some of the low level moisture linger? The nam is frequently too agressive with low level drying.
High pressure ridges southwest from New England across the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley through Sunday. The tropical circulation slowly exits the Eastern Seaboard but won't be much of a factor in the Southern Appalachian's weather as a protective ridge builds across the Eastern United States. The ridge eventually flattens out later in the week across the northern tier as a weak short wave approaches with limited moisture advection and weak instability.
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Very quiet weather pattern persisting over the Heartland this afternoon as large-scale ridging continues to develop/build over the north-central Great Lakes region.
353 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the Labor Day weekend. High pressure ridge will be over the region through this time as tropical system spins in place off of the Delmarva peninsula.
In addition, strong warm air advection has begun in the return flow behind the high pressure moving off to the east. This low level warm air advection and approaching weak short wave may be enough to set off some scattered storms late tonight in the far western section of the forecast area where some instability will exist, although greatest instability will be mainly to the west of the forecast area in the short term period.
316 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will remain over Maine for the next several days. It will be slightly cooler along the coast with a light onshore flow.
313 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Hermine to our east and deep trough over the PAC NW. continues to strengthen a mid level ridge over the Great Lakes region. High Impact Weather: wind gusts on the Mackinac Bridge during the Bridge walk on Labor Day. High pressure continues to provide a clear sky overnight.
High pressure on the surface and aloft will hold over the Four State Region.
Thereafter, focus shifts back to the west ahead of an advancing trough across the intermountain west.
658 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will bring light winds, less than 5 knots, and mainly clear skies throughout the forecast. MSAS Analysis this afternoon centers the sprawling Canadian surface anticyclone over portions of Ontario and Lake Huron.
242 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will continue to build out of the northern Great Lakes and into northern New England tonight. The high will shift offshore early Sunday and remain anchored over the maritimes through mid week.
218 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 206 PM CDT Quiet weather continuing today and through the period as high pressure remains in place. Another cool night expected with lows once again falling to the 50s for most locations, with slightly warmer temps around 80 on Sunday.
The warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s are also providing ample instability, and fully expect the convection to linger through around 8 to 9 PM before dissipating. Temperatures will be near normal in the lower to middle 70s inland and the upper 70s and lower 80s near the coast. Heading into tomorrow, the synoptic pattern will change with a fairly strong mid to upper level ridge parked over Mississippi and Alabama and a trough of low pressure extending across the Gulf Coast.
Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge extends across the southern half of the Florida peninsula, resulting in southeast to south winds of around 10 knots in our marine district.
The disturbance moves east starting Labor day as an upper level high pressure system brings a return of near to slightly above normal temperatures for the coming work week. Temperatures are running around 3-6 degrees cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago as the upper trough settles in and onshore flow picks up. The trough over the West slowly shifts east through the remainder of the weekend.
The upper ridge to the north shifts a little to the east and higher moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico will move northward into the region Sunday.
1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 The central CONUS was situated along the inflection point between longwave troughing across the western CONUS and ridging across the the Great Lakes Region.
356 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Upper ridge overhead has produced strong subsidence with mostly clear skies today and only limited CU across parts of the region. The other noticeable change will be temperatures warming back into the lower 90s as the upper ridge continues to dominate through the Labor Day weekend.
Currently the best areas to see any convection develop will be across our northwestern counties near the surface trof and across our southeastern counties where surface convergence is present. A slight chance exists to see some convection across our extreme northwestern zones during the afternoon along the surface trof, but confidence is not great.
146 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, centered over Ontario, will keep our weather mainly dry, through the rest of the holiday weekend.
Back home Inverted trough extending northward from gulf region triggered isolated showers southern areas of the Mid State this morning will undergo frontolysis during the day and this evening so not expecting much from this feature.
A warming trend will begin on Sunday as surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of the region. The Summer-like temperatures and humidities will continue after the Holiday Weekend as a mid-upper level ridge tries to build into southeast MO and southern IL.
A long wave upper trough along the west coast will shift slowly eastward as the ridge over us shifts to our south and east putting us in a a weak sw flow pattern aloft Sunday-Wed. The close proximity of the upper level ridge will also limit rain chances early in the week.
Lots of high clouds will advect wwd tomorrow with a high dense overcast expected east of the Blue Ridge.
In-conjunction, a 500 hPa region of PV will advect from the high terrain of New Mexico downstream enhancing some precipitation chances as we go into the afternoon hours based off diurnal convection with a good established S-SW 850-700 hPa flow.
231 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 As expected, we have seen much fewer showers today than in the past several days with afternoon convection mainly holding to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
555 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, covering the Great Lakes and much of the Northeastern U.
A long wave trough remains over the Pacific Northwest with a short wave shown on the models off the central Oregon coast.
This was in the somewhat confluent mid level flow ahead the trough that extended from Alberta down to off the central California coast. 12 hour 500 mb height falls were generally 20 to 60 meters east of the trough. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from New Mexico up into Manitoba and western Ontario. along and behind a cold front.
401 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 The tight pressure gradient overhead is keeping southerly winds gusting 20 to near 30kts this afternoon, as we remain stuck between exiting high pressure across the Great Lakes, and nearing low pressure over western-central SD. Precip associated with the low level jet is not a given over the eastern half of the, and have limited it to mainly southeast of ATY.
Winds will pick up through the afternoon with departing high pressure and tightening surface pressure gradient, resulting in sustained winds ranging from around 15 to 20 mph in the northwest to 5 to 10 mph in the southeast.
A low pressure system moving into the western states will bring dry southwesterly flow into Arizona, with storm chances confined to areas north of Interstate 40 today. Increased wind shear associated with an approaching trough has aided in the formation of some strong storms this morning along the Kaibab Plateau to the Utah border. PoP values were increased a bit over the northern third of the state, and slight chances continue through sunrise Sunday in northwest Coconino Co due to trough approaching. A trough across the western US will result in a dry southwesterly flow aloft this holiday weekend.
925 temps show a smidge of a rise so slightly warmer temps expected Sunday along with a nudge upward in dew points as well.
A deep and well developed west coast trough will continue to slowly move east over the next several days. Late this afternoon and evening a cold front, currently bisecting North Dakota, will be the focus for thunderstorm development. Models are forecasting stronger wind shear and CAPE Sunday focused along the cold front along the James river valley. With the moderate to strong wind shear aligned with the cold front the thunderstorms are forecast to quickly form into lines and possibly bowing line segments bringing the initial threat large hail transitioning to damaging winds.
Temps were in the low to mid 50s and winds were light.
1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes this morning is keeping the weather quiet and mostly sunny. Ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. An upper-level blocking pattern will be present across the eastern CONUS for the next several days. Further west, pronounced upper ridging will remain in place over the Midwest, leading to a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
A Pacific cold front will exit the state tonight and leave much cooler air in its wake, especially over northern Nevada. The cold air will drop snow levels to the top ridges of higher mountains in Humboldt and Elko Counties.
Afternoon surface analysis had a ridge of high pressure just to our west nosing southwest from the mid Mississippi river valley while an inverted trough was noted along the Mississippi/Alabama state line. The ridge was helping to maintain a much drier airmass over the northwest half of our CWA with dew points mixing out into the lower 60s this afternoon. The inverted trough was helping maintain a moist airmass with dew points still in the lower 70s along the Interstate 59 corridor. Sunday a 592dam high will develop over our CWA strengthening surface ridging along the Gulf coast states. This will shift the inverted trough west of our area and allow deeper moisture to spread back across most of our cwa by afternoon. Temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer than normal.
700 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Hermine to our east and deep trough over the PAC NW. continues to strengthen a mid level ridge over the Great Lakes region. High Impact Weather: wind gusts on the Mackinac Bridge during the Bridge walk on Labor Day. High pressure continues to provide a clear sky overnight.
Much cooler and wetter weather still on tap to close out the holiday weekend. Models are in good agreement in bringing much cooler temperatures along with precip to the forecast area but do differ in placement of the highest qpf amounts. Water vapor imagery showing a large trough and associated upper wave moving onto the Pacific northwest coast this afternoon. Models have come in wetter as well, although they differ in the locations of the highest qpf placement. In addition, 850mb temperatures cool to 6-7C across our central and western areas Sunday so temperatures were lowered even more with most locations struggling in the lower to middle 50s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED UNDER SE WIND FLOW.
upper low pressure center currently located in north central Nevada remains on track to lift northeast into north central Wyoming at the end of the day then into eastern Montana overnight. Any storms are expected to move east through midnight ahead of advancing cold front. High temperatures should reach the low 80s to near 90. upper low spinning over northeast corner of Montana during the day then jogs slowly into southern Canada overnight. Cooler air moves in with north to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s for far eastern Colorado, mid 30s to low 40s east of the CO/KS border.
High pressure over the Mid South will provide continued dry and warm weather today. Upper level ridging will spread from the plains into the MS River valley today. Concurrently, the Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of upper level ridging, with dry conditions and temps around 10 degrees above normal.
138 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 An upper level low pressure system will finish slowly moving through the region today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
This in response to a strong upr low currently over Wyoming and a cold front now progressing across the Panhandle. have opted to cancel the high wind warning over western Carbon county as winds have not really come up there and 7H winds fcst to stay in the 35-40kt range through this evening. With some downward motion around the mtns will maintain the high wind warning there. The upper low will move to eastern Montana Tuesday and into far southern Canada Weds. Cooler temperatures across the CWA over the next couple days with chilly nights.
551 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the week. High pressure will build for Tuesday and return a mostly sunny sky.
This cloud cover should not have a big impact on temperatures, but could keep them from climbing above the lower 80s to mid 80s range. It does look a tad warmer than initially though. Thus, we have trended toward the lower side of MOS guidance for low temperatures tonight.
After a couple of cooler than normal days, a warming trend can be expected as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds toward our region.
330 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast while a storm system was organizing in the Rockies. Dew points were in the 50s from the Great Lakes and Plain with 60s in the lower Mississippi Valley. However, it does appear that Tuesday will be warmer.
314 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Upper low lifting into WY this afternoon with band of strong low/mid level winds rotating eastward across CO. Winds die out overnight, with a shift to N-NW flow along and east of the mountains as weak cold front drops south through the plains. Cooler conditions with less wind expected on Tue under wly flow aloft, though winds will likely become gusty in spots after 18z, as rather deep dry air mass promotes efficient mixing.
139 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Have an upper trough over the Great Basin this morning with a weak upper ridge over NM and TX. As this trough lifts NE it will displace the upper ridge and bring a chance of storms to the region tonight.
316 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Weak upper level ridging will remain over the Mid South into mid week.
444 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will gradually build atop the region this week.
406 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) A large upper trough over the western CONUS this afternoon will deepen as it expands eastward over the Plains states through tomorrow. As the forecast area comes under the influence of the upper trough, our flow aloft will transition into a southwest flow aloft. As the upper trough moves eastward it will push a cold front/dryline out of southeastern New Mexico early tomorrow to a position along the western CWA by tomorrow evening. Concomitantly, low to mid-layer moisture will increase over the CWA ahead of the cold front/dryline.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 344 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 A relatively uneventful start to the week as high pressure builds in across the region. While today's temps have been close to normal for this time of year, the influence of the returning high pressure will be felt as highs climb back into the mid 80s (5 to 10 degrees above normal) through the end of the week.
Tuesday Night Through Monday Clouds will increase Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, keeping overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s. This cold front will weaken as it heads east, with the main mid level low remaining over southern Canada as the front sweeps through the western Great Lakes.