Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some clearing has occurred along and ahead of an approaching cold front as of 2:30 pm, which has led to destabilization across portions of north-central Wisconsin. Tonight: The cold front, stretching across northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon, is expected to drift southeastward this evening. Along and ahead of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as forcing is concentrated along the front. Friday: High pressure will build across the area throughout the day, leading to mostly clear skies.
237 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Warm and dry conditions are set to continue through tomorrow as upper level ridging remains parked overhead. Similar temperatures to this afternoon are expected tomorrow areawide with highs about 5 degrees warmer than seasonal averages.
Diurnal heating will help build surface-based instability out ahead of a cold front that will pass through from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening, and the timing of peak daytime heating with the passage of the cold front will likely trigger thunderstorms starting somewhere in the vicinity of east central Minnesota and up along the North Shore into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. After the cold front passes through, high pressure will build in to the south on Friday, resulting in a quiet and sunny day.
The remnants from last night's cold front will remain in place along the Divide today. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer Friday afternoon, with along eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin approaching 90 degrees.
To the south, two distinct branches of the subtropical ridge are apparent, with the western branch centered across northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of the southwestern CONUS and the eastern branch centered off the southeastern Atlantic coast. Forecast soundings depict weak and erratic flow throughout the lower troposphere, which will support unorganized, sub-severe convection.
A weak cold front moving through Friday afternoon will bring scattered rain showers and storms to the area. High pressure continues to dominate the region, keeping skies clear and temperatures hot. A weak cold front will move through Friday afternoon, bringing scattered rain showers and storms to the area. Over night a weak cold front will be dropping southeastwards with time and allow for some mid-cloud development.
Temps overnight should fall to cooler readings than last night, down into the upper 40s and 50s.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the low 70s. /JNE/ By Friday, lingering Gulf moisture will allow for another increased chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as the remnants of a weak low pressure off of the coast of Texas diminishes near the Southern Plains region. Over the weekend into the beginning of the week, high pressure ridging will begin to build over the southeastern region once again.
Most of the deep convection is east of the low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico northward to the upper Texas coast.
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure draped across the Southeast, with an old frontal boundary just offshore, soon to deteriorate this afternoon. Light winds out of the southeast tonight continue the muggy trend, with lows in the lower 70s.
A similar setup is in store for Friday, with upper ridging suppressing almost all shower and thunderstorm development. Southeast to south winds of 5 to 12 mph will otherwise prevail, with highs 95 to 100 Friday and lows in the lower 70s tonight.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A warmer day is expected across much of the area today, with temperatures generally climbing into the mid to upper 90s.
(This evening through Friday) A weak cold front, currently across northwest Kansas/east central Colorado, will continue to move southward this evening and overnight. This will naturally result in warmer overnight low temperatures tonight.
Given these trends, did slow down the introduction of the higher pops later this morning, but did maintain pops mostly as is for the afternoon, with the higher chance pops along/S of the shear axis. This convection may affect primarily the LFK/MLU/SHV/ELD terminals through early evening, and thus have inserted VCSH/VCTS mention for these terminals, tempoing TSRA into the MLU TAF given the higher confidence of convection here. Have held off on tempo mention elsewhere given the lower confidence, but will continue to monitor and amend as necessary. Can't rule out patchy FG/LIFR cigs developing by daybreak across portions of N LA where rain falls later today (particularly at MLU), with additional MVFR cigs developing between 12-15Z across portions of Deep E TX/N LA as the weak upper low begins to drift inland from the coast.
The remnants from last night's cold front will remain in place along the Divide today. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer Friday afternoon, with areas along eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin approaching 90 degrees.
316 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Warm days with balmy nights will be the story for the next several days due to a warm front slowly lifting north from the MS/TN border.
133 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some mid-level cu may develop this afternoon as the low and mid-levels saturate. Westerly mid level flow around the periphery of the mid level ridge with a weak impulse moving thru the area overnight. Broad mid level trof settles south into the Great Lakes Friday. This will allow an associated surface cold front to slip into northern Ohio Friday afternoon.
Broad ridging aloft extends across much of the southern and southeastern U. and adjacent western Atlantic early this afternoon, while an area of low pressure (associated with a tropical disturbance) was located over the western Gulf of Mexico off the southeast TX coast. Temperatures have struggled to get our of the 70s today in those locations where the rain has been persistent, but for areas where rain has ended or has not occurred, we have reached the lower 80s and overall across the area our expected low to mid 80s highs for today still seem reasonable as it won't take long to rebound in those areas where rains end.
Regarding temperatures, lows will continue to be in the low to mid 70s north and the mid to upper 70s south except along immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana where it may not drop below 80. Same story as yesterday, upper ridging will build into the area, but won't be strong enough to substantially suppress convection. The slight reduction in convection and clouds should also allow afternoon temperatures to rise a few degrees warmer than what we're seeing in the short term, so expect highs in the lower 90s (possibly mid 90s by mid-week). Outside of convection, expect light to moderate south or southeasterly flow resulting from high pressure to the east and developing low pressure to the west.
A ridge of high pressure has developed across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return for Friday before a cold front brings better chances for showers and storms for Friday afternoon. The upper level pattern starts out with a large trough over eastern Canada which will support an area of low pressure near the Hudson bay and will drag a cold front through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return for Friday before a cold front brings better chances for showers and storms for Friday afternoon. On a synoptic scale, a mid level trough over the Midwest and Northeast sits under a prominent upper low centered over the southern Hudson Bay. Modest, but persistent lower/mid level ridging extends from the southern Rockies to the southwestern Atlantic, with a westerly jet streaming across the northern Rockies and Plains. This wide-based mid-level ridge is supported downstream by a deepening trough pushing towards the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold frontal boundary stretching across most of the lower Midwest and Ohio Valley slowly pushes through the region throughout the weekend from the northwest.
Increasing moisture will aid in keeping overnight lows warmer than previous mornings and closer to seasonal normals.
Could see lows drop into the lower to middle 50s north of I-90 given very dry dew points moving southward this afternoon. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: It's looking like a great Friday in the area thanks in part to high pressure moving into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Winds will stay light through the day, with temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be along and south of I-40 and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachian Mountains. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 70 89 72 / 40 60 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 89 71 / 30 60 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 70 89 71 / 30 50 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 67 86 68 / 20 60 30 60 30.
It is constricting the instability axis to immediately along the cold front, which is now passing through northwest WI and is approaching the northern Twin Cities metro. If the airmass in the cooler areas of WI can recover and destabilize as the front passes through, thunderstorms may develop in an environment marginally favorable for severe thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will arrive Friday and Friday night with an axis of high pressure stretching southeast across the Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures were between 2 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across the forecast area with readings generally in the mid to upper 60s. Dew points were generally still in the low to mid 50s over the area. Otherwise HI values will be around the high temperature which will be from the upper 80s to low 90s. Not really enough moisture today even for pulse thunderstorm activity with the higher PW values not really arriving until Friday, so today should be mostly sunny again. Lows tonight will be warmer than we will experience during the remainder of the current overnight period as dew points will be on the increase over the area today/tonight.
Discussion: The upper level ridge will move over the Lower Great Lakes and New England regions by this evening with trough dropping into Manitoba and Ontario before pivoting off to the NE.
Coverage will increase for Friday into the weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest. 500 MB heights lower slightly on Friday as upper ridge shifts east into the western Atlantic. Favored location of thunderstorms development will be along the Blue Ridge and foothills from North Carolina into Virginia. With surface dew points staying in the 60s tonight, went with warmer guidance for overnight lows. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today.
This afternoon, a closed low was placed over northern Ontario, leading to cyclonic flow aloft over the forecast area. Cluster analysis shows that guidance favors primarily quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains continuing through the holiday weekend, with troughing deepening over the western CONUS and a downstream closed low over eastern Canada.
/JNE/KP/JB/ Today high temperatures across the north could reach up to 90 degrees however, most places will be on the cooler side with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will be cooler due to the more widespread coverage today along with seabreeze activity expected during peak heating. This has placed our whole CWA back in a rather moist airmass with surface dew points in the lower 70s and PWATS back above two inches. These clouds in addition to the clouds associated with today's round of convection are expected to hold temperatures cooler than normal in the mid to upper 80s. Though precip activity will primarily be diurnal in nature, the moisture rich airmass and lingering forcing from the low will allow isolated activity to fester into the night at times.
219 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Aviation -- Warm But Not Overly Humid Today -- The surface front which has been wavering over southern Michigan since yesterday will move north as a warm front as southwesterly low-level flow increases ahead of a cold front associated with northern Ontario low pressure. A surface cold front in the area, upper level troughing and the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak (suggesting upper level divergence) combined with 850 moisture advection underneath modest to moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield enough elevated instability, lift, and effective shear for some convection.
Troughing will bring gusty south-southwest winds this holiday weekend, resulting in increased fire danger for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Despite numerous days of isolated-to-scattered convection in the area this week, the low levels of Mohave County remain dry, as shown by forecast inverted-V HRRR soundings. The primary focus of the forecast period becomes an incoming dry trough that will enhance fire danger across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona through Independence Day weekend. However, due to the incoming trough, ECMWF EFI shows seasonally abnormal winds picking up across the southern Great Basin this weekend.
So, mixed in a little cooler MOS for overnight lows. The Northern Plains through this time will be positioned at or near the top of the upper-ridge, initially under northwest flow aloft and ending with more of a westerly flow.
Think we'll mainly see showers this evening into the overnight as the cold front moving down from northern WI finally passes through the area. The front ends up stalling over northern IL Friday morning and locations closer to the WI/IL border could see some lingering showers Friday morning but those shouldn't last too long as high pressure starts to work into the area. Clearing skies and temps in the lower 80s are expected for Friday.
303 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Current surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic which is driving the clear skies and warm weather so far today. Lows are expected to be unpleasant in the low/mid-70s with dewpoints in the low-70s. Tomorrow, a deep upper-level trough will send a surface cold front surging southward. Tomorrow will be hot and humid, with highs in the low-90s.
1008 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A weak cold front has pushed across much of the area with stable conditions and no precipitation expected over the northern third of the area today. On Friday, there will be sufficient instability for isolated to locally scattered afternoon convection forming over the higher terrain and moving into the adjacent basins and valleys.
354 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model soundings show the lowest few km saturating overnight, leading to increased cloud coverage. As we progress through the day, a broad upper level trough beings to sink towards the Great Lakes region and push a surface cold frontal boundary with it. The surface cold front will act to provide a more robust lifting mechanism for thunderstorms as it moves into our eastern IN and west-central OH counties Friday evening. Broad mid level trough will predominate through the weekend. This has trended slightly stronger to the point of being able to drive the surface cold front south of the forecast area, potentially well south.
The Highs today are in the upper 80s and low 90s in the SE Big Bend. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler in the mid/upper 80s area wide.
1200 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Warm and dry conditions are expected again today with high pressure continuing to build over the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
As the upper-level ridge slides east of the mountains, a deeper layer of moisture will build back into the area. The activity is forecast to be mostly isolated to scattered, but coverage may become fairly widespread in the higher terrain in the later afternoon, and also in SE Ohio heading towards evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The short term period begins with the aforementioned cold front situated across the upper Ohio Valley.
Current satellite and radar imagery is showing storms developing across the higher terrain primarily east of Tucson.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Tropical low pressure over the Texas coastal waters to the northeast of the lower Valley looks unimpressive and will drift north and inland over the next 24 hours. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. After today though, high pressure will reassert control and mentionable rain chances will pretty much disappear from the short term. High temps on Friday will range from the lower 90s east to a few degrees above the century mark out west, and heat index values out west in Starr and Zapata Counties will reach 105 to 110 degrees Friday afternoon.
Over the holiday weekend, there will be an increasing chance of shower activity as an upper trough develops.
153 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper level ridge will build over Pennsylvania today into early Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances along the mountains and southern TN Valley. In the upper levels, weak ridging will be over the Southeast and a broad trough or nearly zonal flow will be over the Ohio Valley.
As the warm front responsible for this increasing moisture lifts north. though the warm front will be well north of AR. Lows will also remain warmer than in recent days.
348 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 It took much of the afternoon, but thunderstorms finally formed in the lee of the Lower Keys after 200 PM. The tallest updrafts were ripped apart by strong northerly shear along the western flank of the upper low to our east. An anticyclone will broaden and strengthen across the western North Atlantic over the next several days.
Expect highs in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, resulting in heat index values of 95-100F.
Today high temperatures across the north could reach up to 90 degrees however, most places will be on the cooler side with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will be cooler due to the more widespread coverage today along with seabreeze activity expected during peak heating. This has placed our whole CWA back in a rather moist airmass with surface dew points in the lower 70s and PWATS back above two inches. These clouds in addition to the clouds associated with today's round of convection are expected to hold temperatures cooler than normal in the mid to upper 80s. Though precip activity will primarily be diurnal in nature, the moisture rich airmass and lingering forcing from the low will allow isolated activity to fester into the night at times.
1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper trough will traverse into the northern plains today, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains later this afternoon. More widespread storm coverage is likelier later tonight as storms from upslope flow across the high plains progress eastward along with additional thunderstorm development along and north of I-70.
/Updated at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ High pressure will remain over the northern Gulf with southerly low and mid level flow bringing plenty of moisture to the state. the heat indices will make the temperatures feel like they are in the lower 90s. the low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
(The rest of today ) Mostly clear to scattered mid level clouds are expected across the CWA today while temperatures continue a warming trend into the low/mid 90s.
At the sfc, cold front pushing thru the area this AM is now well to our south, with weak sfc ridging nosing into the region in its wake. As low-level ridging shifts ewd tonight, should begin to see return flow and associated theta-E advection overspread the area from SW-NE after around 03z. Low-level theta-E advection continues into tomorrow aftn as modestly cooler temps arrive aloft, particularly along a corridor from sern MT thru nern WY into swrn/s cntrl SD.
Zonal flow is in place over the forecast area today with a closed upper low over northern Canada. A cold front is expected to swing in from the northwest later today. Zonal flow persists over the Central Plains Friday with a ridge beginning to form to the west. The effects of cold front will be felt today with regard to high temperatures, which will reach the 80s. Through the rest of the forecast period, an upper ridge builds and moves over the forecast area with high pressure to the southeast.
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (The rest of today ) Mostly clear to scattered mid level clouds are expected across the CWA today while temperatures continue a warming trend into the low/mid 90s.
The first chance comes tonight as a cold front settles through the region tonight. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe storms, with a storm or two having the potential for large hail and damaging winds, mainly across eastern NE, with the highest 50-70% expected over southeast NE. After a few hot days, cooler 80s will prevail behind the front on Friday.
As the upper-level ridge slides east of the mountains, a deeper layer of moisture will build back into the area. The activity is forecast to be mostly isolated to scattered, but coverage may become fairly widespread in the higher terrain in the later afternoon, and also in SE Ohio heading towards evening as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. As an approaching cold front gets closer, moisture advection under southwest flow and afternoon heating will destabilize the local atmosphere to produce SB CAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg.
At the surface, observations show a low pressure center in the northwest Panhandles this afternoon and a cold front up in central KS/CO.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper lvl pattern is not expected to change over the next couple of days with a broad ridge in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. However, the favored areas for storm development will still be along and west of the Pecos River valley and across the higher Terrain of West TX.
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Dry weather will continue tonight under high pressure.
The coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity has thus far been most concentrated to our south/west, where a small convectively-induced vort max embedded within a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge has likely enhanced synoptic scale ascent.
241 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Low amplitude ridging and CAA in low levels will make for a quiet evening over the forecast area with clear to partly cloudy skies.
Currently, a cold front has progressed through the area this morning, and is now positioned southwest-northeast from far northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. This should promote widely scattered thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/Colorado through late afternoon. The cold front will lift northward through tomorrow morning, reaching near the SD/NE border by late afternoon. High-res guidance remains in good agreement with respect to initiation location (across the high terrain in far eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska) though confidence wanes with respect to storm mode and evolution. An increasing southerly LLJ into the warm frontal boundary would suggest convection should persist through much of the late evening into the early overnight hours.
Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are forecast early this afternoon at all terminals, storms most numerous over the higher terrain. The coverage of showers and storms will be lower on Friday, with the highest rain chances across eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
1203 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper level ridge will build over Pennsylvania today into early Friday.
Today will be much cooler than the past couple of days as cloudy skies and a cold air mass settles in, and a weak front spreads light rain across the area. An upper level trough will allow some showers to linger into Saturday, with a trend towards drier conditions late in the afternoon.