Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result, temperatures have surged 5-8 degrees in the last couple of hours into the low to mid 70s -- and subsequently we should be able to reach our originally forecasted highs in the 75-80 degree range over most of the area by 22-23z. With an upper-ridge axis in place overnight and the warm front shifting north, the forecast will remain dry. The upper-ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across our area on Sunday, resulting in another warm/mild and dry weather day.
641 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 Dry and stable low level conditions held firm within prevailing high pressure ensure clear skies continues across the lowest 10k ft this taf period. The resulting height falls will drive an associated cold front across Lake Huron and into Se Mi. Northerly flow across Lake Huron into Se Mi associated with this high will sustain dry and cold air advection through the day Sunday. Despite full mid March sun, the cold air will keep highs across metro Detroit and points south in the low to mid 40s with low 30s expected over the northern Thumb.
The ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic is currently located over north central FL, and is forecast to move southward over central FL later tonight. Winds will continue to be light and variable overnight, becoming calm once the ridge axis is over the local area. Lucie and Martin counties where lows will reach in the low 60s. High pressure near the local waters is creating light winds from the E/SE with speeds under 10 KT across the waters.
Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low moving slowly eastward across the AZ/UT border, with southwest flow aloft over West Texas. As the day goes on, the dry-line will mix east into the Permian Basin, while a Pacific cold front coming in from the west approaches from behind. All hi-res models indicate that the storms will form in a line along the cold front as it moves through, with some weaker storms or light showers lingering behind the main squall line. Meanwhile, with continued day-time heating and dewpoints in the low 60s, ML CAPE values look to increase to around 1000-2000 J/KG. Warm, downsloping westerly flow could result in warmer temperatures than many models are showing, with official forecast highs in the low 70s.
A cold front will push through the region Sunday afternoon. I do not expect another round tonight thanks to the stronger wind field and a little upward motion in the atmosphere thanks to an approaching cold front. The cold front is coming into west Texas right now, and several watches are in place out there for severe weather.
Weak upper level ridging currently over the area will remain in place tonight, then gets pushed eastward as a strong upper low moves into the Central Plains on Sunday before swinging northeastward Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area tonight, with just some cloud cover lingering across the southwestern CWA. To start the extended, weakening low pressure will still be producing either light snow or a wintry mix over the area. BUFKIT soundings indicate a potential loss of ice at times during the period which could lead to freezing rain or drizzle in some areas at times. First, temperatures in areas most likely to get freezing rain do not drop much below 30 degrees Sunday night.
224 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 The strong upper low is now centered across the Four Corners region, and is slowly making it way eastward. high pressure is extending from the Midwest into MN/ND. The northern end of warning criteria totals could suffer if temperatures tomorrow are warmer than expected and dry air within the high pressure to the north hinders the moisture. From the highest elevations to the leeward SW Black Hills, models are suggesting very strong downsloping combined with 60kt winds down to about 1000 feet, which would support gusts to 60 mph at the surface. The strongest winds would be limited to west of Hill City in Pennington, in Custer County, from the higher foothills into the southern Black Hills, and down into Fall River County.
259 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 A deep low pressure system continue to drift slowing east across the central Rockies. The highest amounts are still expected in the higher terrain around Story and the Bighorn Mountains, where 5 to 10 inches is still expected. The lower elevations are still around 2 to 4 inches. The higher end solutions that the ECMWF ensemble had been presenting have come down some. With increased cloud cover over the area tomorrow, expecting temperatures to be a little cooler than today, with highs in the 40s to maybe lower 50s.
All of this has been driven by a strong upper level low that was centered near the AZ/UT border this afternoon. A vort max on the back side of this upper low was over NW AZ this afternoon and will move over the area later tonight into Sunday morning, bringing another round of scattered showers to mainly the northern parts of the forecast areas with Tucson on the southern edge of this chance of showers. Sunday: Lingering showers ending by noon east of Tucson, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy with highs 7-10 degrees warmer than today.
505 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Latest 18z surface analysis shows high pressure extending from southern Michigan into northern Iowa/southern Minnesota.
We are monitoring the clearing over southwest parts of Oklahoma where sufficient warming into the lower 70s is eroding the cap. Overall convergence in the warm sector and near warm front is weak at the moment, but convergence appears to be increasing some from near Erick, eastward toward Anadarko. Even if this occurs, they could quickly cross the front into the cooler air mass.
Whiteout conditions are possible across Natrona, Johnson and Fremont counties with the strong northeast winds wrapping around the low.
251 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 As models had predicted, the mid-level low pressure system has closed on the Four Corners region early this afternoon and RAP analyses had the system's center over Page, Arizona as of 20Z. Later this afternoon and tonight the low tracks eastward along the southeast Utah/southwest Colorado borders moving over the southern San Luis Valley, then to the southeast Plains of Colorado by morning. Consequently, precipitation will become widespread with areas of rain or mixed precipitation in the lower elevations largely changing over to snow. Daytime warming, however, will cause another shift in precipitation state for the lower elevations.
111 PM PST Sat Mar 13 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer for most locations through Sunday under dry conditions.
303 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 The upper low will be over southwestern Colorado at 00z is expected to move slowly eastward across southern Colorado tonight and Sunday. Later tonight, a deep easterly flow in the mid and upper levels will develop on the north side of the closed upper low. Overall the highlights we have look to be in pretty good shape. Farther east, we may have to later expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include the northeast corner of the state, depending on how the upper level low eventually fills and weakens.
South of the front, temperatures are very mild with readings in the low to upper 70s. Downstream of this feature, weak ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s under mostly clouds skies. A cold front will begin to move into the area from the west tomorrow night.
Highs will be cooler Sunday but remain above normal through the period. Overnight lows are expected to dip below freezing each night. An upper low center will drift over the Four Corners region this evening then it will gradually move to the east/northeast through the weekend. As it does, a narrow upper ridge will build over the Northland. At the surface, high pressure will move southeast across Ontario causing surface winds to veer to northeast tonight and to east/northeast Sunday. Sunday will be cooler than today with highs from the lower thirties to lower forties.
Expect continued warm, rain-free conditions as high pressure ridging remains over the area.
348 PM PST Sat Mar 13 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer for most locations through Sunday under dry conditions.
Dry weather and warmer temperatures return Sunday with gusty west to northwest winds.
These clouds are associated with the northern extent of a strong low pressure system that is starting to become organized across the southwestern US into the southern Plains. Currently, weak northwest flow aloft remains with an upper level ridge axis extending into western Montana and a large area of low pressure moving east out of the Desert Southwest and into the southern Rockies. Large upper level low will slowly push east into the Central Plains tonight into Sunday, spreading clouds northward into our region along with cooler temperatures aloft. Cooler highs for Sunday, but still mild with forecast highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
I would expect the high/mid level moisture to decrease as it heads north this evening. A weak cold front brings a wind shift later this evening, with northerly, then northeasterly winds bringing in drier and slightly cooler air for tonight into Sunday. A rather potent upper low continues pushing across the High Plains into the Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
JKL A deep low pressure system continue to drift slowing east across the central Rockies. The highest amounts are still expected in the higher terrain around Story and the Bighorn Mountains, where 5 to 10 inches is still expected. The lower elevations are still around 2 to 4 inches. The higher end solutions that the ECMWF ensemble had been presenting have come down some. With increased cloud cover over the area tomorrow, expecting temperatures to be a little cooler than today, with highs in the 40s to maybe lower 50s.
812 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather through Sunday.
Mid level ridging will build into the region tonight into Sunday. It will likely be a fairly dirty ridge with a good deal of cloud cover, but should keep things fairly quiet except for a stray shower here and there with near seasonal temps in the mid 50s to near 60. Yet another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across the region later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as a mid level short wave and associated sfc warm front approach.
450 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 As models had predicted, the mid-level low pressure system has closed on the Four Corners region early this afternoon and RAP analyses had the system's center over Page, Arizona as of 20Z. Later this afternoon and tonight the low tracks eastward along the southeast Utah/southwest Colorado borders moving over the southern San Luis Valley, then to the southeast Plains of Colorado by morning. Consequently, precipitation will become widespread with areas of rain or mixed precipitation in the lower elevations largely changing over to snow. Daytime warming, however, will cause another shift in precipitation state for the lower elevations.
I do not expect another round tonight thanks to the stronger wind field and a little upward motion in the atmosphere thanks to an approaching cold front. The cold front is coming into west Texas right now, and several watches are in place out there for severe weather.
The area will remain under clear skies tonight, sandwiched between a deep upper low along the front range of the Rockies and elongated trough off the Pacific NW coast. The warmth will peak tomorrow with increasing clouds late in the day as the Pacific trough pushes to the coast.
We will see quite the gradient over our area today as those to our north will experience cooler and cloudy conditions while those to the south will experience much warmer (almost 20 degrees) conditions and maybe even some sunny skies.
945 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Mid level ridging will build northward through the overnight hours as an amplified trough moves through the Southern Plains. Moisture filtering around the northern periphery of this ridge will keep mid to high level cloud cover through much of the overnight hours and limit the cooling across the area. Temps currently in the lower 60s will only fall a few more degrees, with lows in the mid 50s. The upper-ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across our area on Sunday, resulting in another warm/mild and dry weather day.
345 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The large upper level low that brought the severe weather yesterday will finally move into the Great Plains today bringing strong winds to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as well as the adjacent plains.
1049 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 We are monitoring the clearing over southwest parts of Oklahoma where sufficient warming into the lower 70s is eroding the cap. Overall convergence in the warm sector and near warm front is weak at the moment, but convergence appears to be increasing some from near Erick, eastward toward Anadarko. Even if this occurs, they could quickly cross the front into the cooler air mass.
Mid level ridging will build northward through the overnight hours as an amplified trough moves through the Southern Plains. Moisture filtering around the northern periphery of this ridge will keep mid to high level cloud cover through much of the overnight hours and limit the cooling across the area. Temps currently in the lower 60s will only fall a few more degrees, with lows in the mid 50s. The upper-ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across our area on Sunday, resulting in another warm/mild and dry weather day.
156 AM EST Sun Mar 14 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Two Low pressure centers bring chances for precip this week There are two low pressure areas to watch this week.
As weak energy ripples through the upper flow ahead of the tightly wound low pressure system, may see some scattered showers develop over the area. However, with a relatively dry airmass in place in the lower levels, precipitation may struggle to reach the ground.
At mid evening attention continues to be with the broken lines of convection moving into Western Oklahoma ahead of a cold front making its way eastward through the Texas Panhandle/West Texas.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an approaching upper trough extending due south across southeast AK to well offshore the PacNW with a sharp moisture regime present with the jet and system. This upper trough will be moving onshore late tomorrow with precip chances increasing in the afternoon across the crest of the Cascades then spreading across the forecast area late afternoon/evening. Impacts continue to look low/marginal with the best chances for snow exceeding an inch existing across the higher elevations of central OR and the areas above 4,000 ft as snow levels fall tomorrow night. Otherwise, there will be potential for rain showers at KDLS, KBDN, and KRDM as well with the highest confidence in the former location presently.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 52 65 51 69 / 10 10 80 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 47 64 48 67 / 20 20 80 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 47 64 48 68 / 20 20 80 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 42 58 41 65 / 20 30 60 60 30.
Meanwhile, deep layer ridging remains solidly over the Gulf of Mexico. Quiet weather expected for the overnight as deep layer ridging dominates the weather pattern. Expect above normal temperatures to persist with daytime highs in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
A cold front will begin pushing through the region this afternoon.
/issued 840 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021/ Skies are cloudy over much of the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to around 70 degrees. South of the front, temperatures are very mild with readings in the low to upper 70s. Downstream of this feature, weak ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s under mostly clouds skies. A cold front will begin to move into the area from the west tomorrow night.
1045 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Latest 18z surface analysis shows high pressure extending from southern Michigan into northern Iowa/southern Minnesota.
Today will continue the warm and dry trend with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
320 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Mid level ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico will slowly shift east across Florida through the first half of the week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge will slide east into the Atlantic today and continue to ridge across northern Florida through the first half of the week.
It was still a little warmer across the Delta Region, where temps were in the lower 70s.
400 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Currently - A high pressure system that is centered north of the Bahamas and extends across Florida is being reinforced by another high spreading off the southeast Atlantic coast. This high is producing gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys. A sharp upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to flatten out, but a fairly robust lower to mid level ridge remains across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast - The high off the Florida Atlantic coast will continue to be reinforced over the next couple of days and eventually be absorbed into the stronger high spilling off the coast.
Large dynamic upper level low that produced severe weather yesterday continues to deepen and track over SE Colorado today. Minimal chance that precipitation will reach the northern Panhandles on the back side of this low as it will continue to lift east northeast away front the Panhandles.
953 PM PST Sat Mar 13 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer for most locations through Sunday under dry conditions.
1028 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 As models had predicted, the mid-level low pressure system has closed on the Four Corners region early this afternoon and RAP analyses had the system's center over Page, Arizona as of 20Z. Later this afternoon and tonight the low tracks eastward along the southeast Utah/southwest Colorado borders moving over the southern San Luis Valley, then to the southeast Plains of Colorado by morning. Consequently, precipitation will become widespread with areas of rain or mixed precipitation in the lower elevations largely changing over to snow. Daytime warming, however, will cause another shift in precipitation state for the lower elevations.
1224 AM EST Sun Mar 14 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather through Sunday.
Temps in line, though a few sites are locally running a bit cooler where winds are near calm in the northern valley. I would expect the high/mid level moisture to decrease as it heads north this evening. A weak cold front brings a wind shift later this evening, with northerly, then northeasterly winds bringing in drier and slightly cooler air for tonight into Sunday. A rather potent upper low continues pushing across the High Plains into the Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
We continue to have drier air filtering in from the north in the lower levels, and upper level forcing is lacking, thus precip chances will remain on the low side for the short term period.
Cold northeast flow will continue to funnel into the area tonight around a large arctic high pressure system that settles through Ontario and the northern Great Lakes in the wake of the passing cold front.
953 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 High pressure will continue to control the weather over central Indiana through the overnight. Mid and upper level moisture flowing around an upper ridge will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy. On Sunday, the area will be under an upper ridge, and high pressure will remain in control at the surface. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored off to the northeast, keeping a dry east to northeast flow across the area. Temperatures aloft will be warm, but the evaporative cooling in the lower levels will allow the possibility for some sleet to mix in with the rain across the northeast fringe of the precipitation area late Sunday night.
840 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Skies are cloudy over much of the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to around 70 degrees. South of the front, temperatures are very mild with readings in the low to upper 70s. Downstream of this feature, weak ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s under mostly clouds skies. A cold front will begin to move into the area from the west tomorrow night.
High pressure is building over the region tonight and Sunday with temperatures briefly returning to seasonal averages on Sunday.
1155 PM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 Dry and stable low level conditions held firm within prevailing high pressure ensure clear skies continues across the lowest 10k ft this taf period. The resulting height falls will drive an associated cold front across Lake Huron and into Se Mi. Northerly flow across Lake Huron into Se Mi associated with this high will sustain dry and cold air advection through the day Sunday. Despite full mid March sun, the cold air will keep highs across metro Detroit and points south in the low to mid 40s with low 30s expected over the northern Thumb.
Water vapour had upper low in far south central CO. Snow falling in the higher elevations with rain on the plains. Effect of upper low main concern.
335 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Upper level low that brought several rounds of severe weather the past few days will finally move northeast of the forecast area today. Even with the downsloping winds, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the front that moved through the region and continuation of cooler air aloft.
The low-level ridge axis of a weak high pressure in the western Atlantic is parked across Central FL today.
355 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The closed upper low has finally moved into the central Rockies per the 08Z water vapor imagery. As the upper low propagates east into western KS, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to push west to east across the forecast area with most areas picking up around an inch or rain with isolated higher amounts. Temps the last couple days have ended up being cooler than the forecast thanks to clouds and precip.
434 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A frontal boundary will remain south of the CSRA as high pressure continues to ridge in from the north.
1024 PM MST Sat Mar 13 2021 The strong upper low is now centered across the Four Corners region, and is slowly making it way eastward. high pressure is extending from the Midwest into MN/ND. The northern end of warning criteria totals could suffer if temperatures tomorrow are warmer than expected and dry air within the high pressure to the north hinders the moisture. From the highest elevations to the leeward SW Black Hills, models are suggesting very strong downsloping combined with 60kt winds down to about 1000 feet, which would support gusts to 60 mph at the surface. The strongest winds would be limited to west of Hill City in Pennington, in Custer County, from the higher foothills into the southern Black Hills, and down into Fall River County.
423 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 There is just a small chance of rain today driven by weak mid level support within a persistent mid level ridge. A large upper low to our west will broaden and eject energy northeast across MO and IL later tonight into Monday.
A warm southwesterly flow will aide in afternoon highs being a touch warmer then what we experienced yesterday across the region. There will be a slight increase in cloud cover, as a broad trough of low pressure begins to approach at the end of the day. This approaching trough of low pressure will bring cooler temperatures, along with a light northerly flow to the region.
Temperatures this morning dropped to the 50s but will quickly warm to the lower 80s along the coastal counties and mid 80s across the interior.