Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging breaking down as it moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight bringing about a more westerly flow aloft by early Thursday. A weak cold front is projected to push southward into western Kansas early Thursday morning before stalling out, allowing another shot of slightly cooler air to spread across the region. Because of this, should see highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central and central Kansas with the lower to mid 50s(F) likely south of the stalled boundary.
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 Surface ridging center over SE Nebraska and NW Missouri this morning allowing for temperatures to drop well into the 20s, perhaps upper teens in some low spots. The current ridge over the area will center just to the east of the area, and become a little more diffuse, which should get some light southerly winds going.
This clearing is expected to continue to spread to the south and east this evening and into the overnight hours as the mid-level trof axis that currently extends from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma shifts southeast. Below freezing temperatures will be possible across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas that have already have had a hard freeze this season.
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging breaking down as it moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight bringing about a more westerly flow aloft by early Thursday. A weak cold front is projected to push southward into western Kansas early Thursday morning before stalling out, allowing another shot of slightly cooler air to spread across the region. Because of this, should see highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central and central Kansas with the lower to mid 50s(F) likely south of the stalled boundary. The cold front should make it to along or south of the Oklahoma border before stalling out.
At the surface, a low pressure was located over eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. A cold front was also located over eastern Wyoming. A cold front will move through with a wind shift and falling temperatures as the only significant change in the weather. High temperatures tomorrow should only reach the low to mid 40s.
300 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure over the area will sag off to the southeast tonight then an arctic cold front will drop southeast through the region Thursday.
Rain trends in the model data are down with the higher qpf amounts mainly stuck over North Central TX this evening, and light qpf amounts all around after midnight.
With daytime sunshine and drier air, daily maximum temperatures will be warmer on Thursday, after a relatively cool start to the day.
Cold front moved through the CWA today without much snow. Winds: After light and variable winds tonight, winds will increase from the SE Thursday ahead of a warm front.
Rain will increase in coverage and intensity from north to south across the region late this afternoon and through the overnight as a cold front pushes inland.
The airmass moderates slowly as a ridge aloft moves overhead. Ridge aloft flattens out with zonal flow aloft. Another surge of cooler air moves into our eastern counties in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage, so coldest temperatures will lie north of a Douglas to Torrington line.
Still expect about an inch or so of snow for areas along and north of the highway 200 corridor. A surface cold front currently draped across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan will sag into and across North Dakota and northern Minnesota through the late forenoon and afternoon hours producing cloudy skies and widespread light snow. From one to two inches of snow is expected today mainly along and north of the Highway 200 corridor, with Trace to one inch snowfall amounts south of the Highway 200 corridor.
109 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 Surface cold front has nearly cleared the state as it currently extends from near Destin, Florida northeast to near Macon, Georgia. Most global models are in strong agreement with a positively- tilted trough axis swinging eastward across the area during the day tomorrow, this upper level support will continue to encourage rain showers with the highest precipitation coverage gradually trending to the southeast with time overnight. As the trough departs to the east beyond midday Thursday expect decreasing shower activity from the northwest to the southeast.
242 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 Low amplitude trof axis extends from n central Mexico to newd all the way into PA.
247 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Departing high pressure provides dry weather into Thursday.
Cold advection will then be pronounced for Thursday as front will be off to the east and northwest winds will usher in a chilly low level thermal trough.
202 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 Warmer, slightly more seasonable conditions this afternoon will be replaced by a fast-moving cold front Thursday morning, and while sunshine will allow for a few degrees of diurnal rise tomorrow afternoon, cold-air advection will hold highs in the lower to mid 40s.
1102 AM MST Wed Nov 8 2017 Current surface map shows trof across central Montana/eastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge building across the northern Rockies, with abundant high clouds spreading across the northern plains. For today, weak westerly low level flow will bring warmer temperatures today, though clouds will limit warming across the northern half of forecast area. Cold front backs into the area tonight as 1035mb high slips southward out of Canada. The high shifts into the eastern Dakotas Thursday.
1150 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure will extend across the region into Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build in for the end of the week. Ridge of high pressure will extend across the area until Thursday afternoon when it gets shunted off to the southeast as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A cold front will move through Thursday night. Although there will be no precipitation with this system, there will be a noticeable change in temperatures with much cooler air working into the region.
101 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Low pressure tracks across southern areas this morning. Cooler air moves in for the end of the work week.
214 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Mid-afternoon satellite imagery showed a mix of sun and clouds across southern Indiana and central Kentucky while regional observations had northeasterly winds and readings in the lower to middle 50s. Through tonight, high pressure will slowly nose into the lower Ohio Valley and skies should go mostly clear to clear overnight. This will setup a chilly night with overnight temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s. Look for mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. With a brisk and chilly wind, lows Thursday night will range from the middle 20s to around the freezing mark.
243 PM MST Wed Nov 8 2017 Late tonight, a backdoor cold front is expected to move in almost to the Denver metro area. This could lead to a chance of freezing fog on the northern plains due to higher RH and dropping temperatures tonight through mid morning Thursday.
318 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 The warmer weather we've experienced today will be replaced by much cooler weather tomorrow. The next strong cold front racing southward through the Dakotas will reach northeast NE this evening and just north of I80 through midnight, then into KS and the IA/MO border by Thursday morning. Still breezy in the morning, but winds gradually relax in the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north.
319 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 Arctic high pressure centered over the western Plains of Canada. Hudson Bay low at h5 with ridge between aforementioned low and Gulf of Alaska low. Cold front from southern plains follows coast northeastward along the east coast. Quiet conditions are expected for north central Nebraska as a strong upper level ridge builds across the western US resulting in high pressure across the central US. Expect highs to only reach into the mid 20s across the northeast forecast area (O'Neill area) to the low 40s south of I-80. low temperatures will hold in the low to mid 20s.
336 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will keep us dry through Thursday.
The high pressure ridge over the region will shift eastward tonight as a low-pressure trough approaches from the northwest. For the next seven days, the pattern over the east PAC and North America will be dominated by broad troughing with mostly zonal or near-zonal flow aloft over socal. A little cooler on Thu and Fri, a few degrees warmer again for Sat through Mon then a little cooler again Tue and Wed.
Little change in this overall pattern is xpcted into the first half of the weekend period, until an upper trough axis out of the mid/srn Plains translates ewd into the ARKLATEX and Mid South regions. Likewise, rainfall should begin to taper off from the W heading into daybreak Thu, as the upper trough pattern weakens and begins to lift into the mid Atlantic Basin. Even with the abundant cloud cover/rainfall, strong cold air advection out of the N looks to bring overnight temps down into the lower/mid 40s mark. What lingering rainfall remains Sat morning will continue to quickly exit to the E, as another large dome of high pressure settles into the Great Lakes states.
High pressure surface and aloft across the Gulf and Florida will sink south as a short wave trough moves across the southeastern states and an attendant cold front sinks south into the northern peninsula on Thursday. On Thursday the low clouds and fog will burn off with another unseasonably warm and dry day expected under partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures tonight and Thursday will remain well above normal with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s inland areas, and mid to upper 60s along the coast, with daytime highs on Thursday again climbing into the lower and middle 80s.
Surface analysis shows a cold front sliding southeast through northern WI into central MN. Meanwhile, GOES Water Vapor showing a vigorous mid-level trough pushing into southern Manitoba/northern ND. Surface cold front and mid-level wave will push across the area this evening/overnight. Cold Canadian high pressure slides overhead Thursday night for mostly clear skies and light winds.
1232 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 Issued 1254 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 High pressure will build across the region today providing mainly sunny skies and cooler than normal afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds will begin to increase later tonight into Thursday as a strong cold front approaches.
Expect some sunshine today with scattered high clouds and temps near seasonal averages as a dynamic high pressure ridge moves over the region from the west. By tonight, the ridge begins to shift east as a low-pressure trough approaches from the northwest. For the next seven days, the pattern over the east PAC and North America will be dominated by broad troughing with mostly zonal or near-zonal flow aloft over socal. A little cooler on Thu and Fri, a few degrees warmer again for Sat through Mon then a little cooler again Tue and Wed.
253 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure will extend across the region into Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build in for the end of the week.
A weak cold front will move through the area late Thursday morning with a wind shift from the north.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Forecast becoming more muddled with time with 12Z GFS/NAM models changing their tune on the outcome of the cooler air and rain chances (ECMWF is the most consistent). This keeps most of the CWA on the drier side while the ECMWF keeps the trough closer to the coast.
SEly return flow establishes quickly as high pressure ridge migrates eastward.
SEly return flow establishes quickly as high pressure ridge migrates eastward. Windy and warmer. Lee troughing establishes under fast zonal flow aloft.
1209 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will be across our region tonight as a weak upper low slides east into the Maritimes. The high will remain over the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. An occluded front will push across the area on Thursday as low pressure lifts to our northwest bringing rain and snow showers to the region. High pressure to our north will continue ridging across our area tonight as a weak upper low over the region slowly slides east into the Maritimes. All other guidance has the low further east with virtually no snow Thursday night.
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Anticipated cold front is making its way through the Texas Panhandle and should be well south of all three terminals by sunrise Wednesday morning. A brief cold front will pass late tonight, perhaps with a small window for low clouds mainly before daybreak over the Rolling Plains, but much drier and breezier afterwards.
A cold front currently over the Plains will be making its way toward the area. Temperatures tonight should be milder, with a little breeze keeping the lower levels mixed, warm- air advection ahead of the front, as well as a layer of stratocumulus for much of the night that limits radiational cooling.
Weak ridging aloft will slide east of the region today. This in turn, will result in high pressure at the surface weakening across the forecast area, allowing a cold front to drop into the CWA from the northwest late today into tonight. However, some isolated to scattered showers can't be ruled out, primarily in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor this afternoon and early evening. Again, with clouds gradually increasing across the forecast area, highs today will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
As of 09Z the cold front had reached the South Plains and should clear the CWA by late morning.
With northwesterly flow aloft and north-northeasterly flow at the lower levels, expect clear skies and near-normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area this afternoon and overnight lows will dip into the low-mid 40s. An upper level trough will quickly move across parts of the central and eastern CONUS during this period, but this feature will remain well north of our area as we remain under quasi-zonal upper flow. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will dominate our area on Wednesday. On Thursday, a strong area of low pressure will move eastward across the northern states under the aforementioned upper trough, with a trailing cold front quickly pushing southeastward toward our area.
Fog loop indicated breaks in the low clouds over parts of central and western ND and in southern MAN. An upper level ridge will be centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Thursday night, drifting east across the Great Lakes region. Models hint at warmer temps aloft with this feature, which may result in sleet or freezing rain across northeast ND. If it was snow it might be and inch or two but if it's freezing rain or sleet, it could be a big problem. As the upper level trough passes.
High pressure ridge extending south down the eastern seaboard and into the southeastern states will continue to dominate weather forecast. Lows tonight ranging from the lower 40s over most of the interior, to the mid and upper 40s close to and along the coast.
High pressure in place across the eastern United States will keep our wind flow breezy out the east northeast.
A cold front will bring widespread showers on Wednesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. This will followed by cooler and mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday.
High pressure will depart to the east overnight as a low pressure system moves into and through the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front through the area on Wednesday.
455 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Southerly wind will increase over the Ohio Valley as high pressure moves east and away from the region. An area of rain will spread into the region from the west this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross this evening. An axis of high pressure behind this front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night.
The high resolution models suggest the stratus will linger through 15z, then begin to retreat southwest to northeast, but not totally clearing the Turtle Mountains south into the northern James River Valley this afternoon. For tonight, a transitory mid level ridge will shift across western and central North Dakota, with low level warm air advection taking control. A surface warm front makes it through central ND during the day, with a cold front entering into northwest ND late in the afternoon. The cold front will then move across western and central ND Thursday night, with a narrow band of precipitation forecast to stretch mainly from western into north central ND.
in spite of a cold front pushing through, plenty of sunshine over the region should allow highs to top out in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A boundary will try and sink south towards the Highway 82 corridor late this afternoon, bringing some increased cloud cover along with a few showers. /10/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday: Slight northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region tonight, and sharpen a bit by tomorrow, courtesy of slight amplification of UA ridging across western CONUS. Will therefore see slightly warm temps across the western zones where cloud cover will commence to invade /middle to upper 40s/ versus slightly cooler conditions across the eastern zones before cloud cover moves in /lower 40s/. This increase in cloud cover is courtesy of an UA low translating eastward from the Northern Plains to across the Great Lakes Region by tomorrow aftn, and concurrently its trailing cold frontal boundary nearing southeast AR by the end of the short term period.
Breezy conditions look to be in store for the area on Wednesday as high pressure starts builds in during the AM hours. Slightly cooler conditions will be possible on Thursday following the passage of a weakening cold front during the early morning hours. Despite its passage however, much of the area will still see afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 50s.
337 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will remain over the area today into tonight. An occluded front will push across the area on Thursday as low pressure passes to our northwest bringing rain and snow showers to the region. Strong high pressure will build over the region today from the north. The high will move to the east early this evening. This will allow clouds to move back into the area as a low pressure system approaches from the west. H5 trof wl be deepening on Thu as it swings into the Great Lks region.
This induced fairly strong low level response on the High Plains, and was largely responsible for allowing low stratus to erode quicker and farther east than most morning mesoscale model solutions were suggesting. Dewpoints will fall to around 30F by daybreak, but there will not be much in the way of cold air behind this front, given the degree of downslope trajectory of the parcels in the low levels.
UPDATE Cold front continues to push south into the Northern Plains. The forecast concerns for the short term include the diminishing fog across the southeast, a brief period of gusty winds with a cold frontal passage this evening, and the cooler temperatures Wednesday. The fog area will be permanently (for the short term) swept away by a leading trough that will bring northwest mixing winds this afternoon. This will be followed by a more potent cold frontal passage this evening, bringing colder temperatures and some gusty northwest winds, and will, for the most part be a dry frontal passage with just some slight chances for light snow north central this evening. On Wednesday night a moderate to strong pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in Ontario and deepening low pressure in southwest Alberta.
1243 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will prevail through late week.
1245 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses Thursday night.
Timing wise models are in good agreement with this low stratus deck developing along and east of I-35 06Z-09Z and into the Hill Country 08Z-10Z.
Main cold front is still off to the west in central Iowa, and will be moving into the western CWA late this morning.
At the surface, cold front stretches from northern IA into southeast Nebraska and finally into the TX Panhandle. This activity should be pushing out of southeast KS by sunrise as the cold front continues to plunge south. Zonal upper pattern will quickly set back up over the Rockies/Plains for Thu which will allow lee troughing to deepen. A strong cold front is expected to move through Fri night with the front expected to mostly move through dry with the better precip chances staying east of the area. Will start a slow warmup by Sun as lee troughing sets up some downslope. IFR and LIFR will prevail in advance of a cold front with low ceilings and reduced visibilities through the overnight hours before VFR quickly returns in the wake of a cold front.
May see fog redevelop rather early this evening in those areas and persist until a cold front sweeps through overnight bringing lower dew points.
1120 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Ahead of upper level trough that moves through the CWA later this evening there remains a slight chance of precip in the western third of the CWA. As this trough approaches, large scale ascent increases accompanied by a strengthening LLJ. There are expected to be gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage late Wed.
Thursday and Thursday night: Longwave trough begins to swing eastward from the Pacific northwest across the northern Rockies. Currently expecting the highest gusts to be sub- advisory level in the 30 to 40 mph range.
115 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will weaken today, in response to the approach of an upper level trough that will cross our region tonight. The high will then linger over the southeastern US ahead of a cold front that will cross NC early Thu night. The air mass remains seasonably cool and with skies becoming partly- mostly cloudy, limited insolation will make it feel even cooler. The expected cloud cover Wednesday night will trap some of the terrestrial radiation, leading to slightly warmer overnight temperatures.
357 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Disturbance in the Central Plains as noted on wv imagery this morning will continue to spill ewd today around the upper ridge axis anchored over the Desert SW. Associated cold front will move into the nrn portions of the region today and stall along the I-20 corridor tonight.
This morning will be a cool start particularly in the valleys under mostly clear skies and weak upper level ridging. Then we see a cold front progress eastward later this afternoon into tonight. These winds will veer around to the south and southwest ahead of the cold front and could see gusts up to 15 knots by this afternoon.
345 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will weaken today, in response to the approach of an upper level trough that will cross our region tonight. The high will then linger over the southeastern US ahead of a cold front that will cross NC early Thu night. The air mass remains seasonably cool and with skies becoming partly- mostly cloudy, limited insolation will make it feel even cooler. The expected cloud cover Wednesday night will trap some of the terrestrial radiation, leading to slightly warmer overnight temperatures.
307 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Main player today is a progressive upper trof over the Upper Midwest, and a cold front currently trailing along the I-35 corridor from Minnesota to Kansas. Expect precip to blossom ahead of the cold front in the next few hrs, with numerous showers spreading eastward to reach the I-65 corridor by midday and the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland early to mid afternoon. Quiet weather and below normal temps will follow late Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds through the Great Lakes.