Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the NW flow continuing in the lower atmosphere, smoke/haze with gradually increase as the night wears on. Temps tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today over the plains. \/Hodanish The upper-level high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the rest of this week. A trough may impact the area sometime around this weekend, which could cool off temperatures slightly and increase precipitation chances over the mountains.
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 For today, warmer and dry weather can be expected across the region with highs in the middle to upper 80s. For tonight, overnight lows will fall into the lower 60s, with a few locations across the eastern Ozark valleys dipping into the 50s.
929 AM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 mostly cooler west of the mountains and not as hot in the lower deserts through Tuesday.
However, most of the smoke seems to be in the mid to upper layers with the lowest surface visibility readings in the 5 to 7 mile range. Currently, strong mid level S/WV pushing east across south central Canada this afternoon, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the High Plains towards the western Dakotas. Cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 70s, with a breezy northwest wind through the day. Afternoon percent humidity will range from the low 30s east to low 20s west.
634 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Other than some ongoing scattered mid to upper level clouds across southern and central Oklahoma and far portions of northwestern Oklahoma, clear skies and warmer temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough will begin digging into the Great Lakes region, and begin pulling a cold front through Kansas and begin entering far northwestern Oklahoma, resulting in strong northerly winds behind the front.
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A cold front swings through on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some showers and gusty afternoon winds. Some model members try to saturate the lower BL and realize some upright convection, but this is an especially lower confidence scenario.
On that, hourly temps were about a degree warmer than previous trends, which was also reflected in the latest guidance. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 85 69 87 65 / 10 20 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 68 86 64 / 0 20 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 84 67 86 61 / 0 10 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 84 65 84 61 / 0 10 10 30 30.
803 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 During the next 24 hours: An upper level trough over the eastern US continues to sags down into the western Gulf of Mexico while weak ridging sprawls from the Bahamas to FL and the east Gulf. Atlantic high pressure extends west across FL to the Gulf. The upper level features and Atlantic high pressure are expected to meander through Tue. 8 to around 2 inches with the highest amounts Tue afternoon. Atlantic high pressure ridge continues across FL and part of the Gulf through mid to perhaps late week. Initially the ridge axis is between the Florida Keys and Cuba but lifts up across south FL around midweek.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night.
The cold front, currently slowly crossing the Canada-Montana border, will swing through this evening. However, outside of a minor wind shift from the northwest to north to northeast, won't likely bring any gustier winds with it, and only slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday (highs upper 70s to mid 80s from east to west, respectively). Vertz Western CONUS ridge will remain dominant initially, bringing us hot & dry days Wed/Thu. Some sort of ridge break down will occur Fri/Sat. Pacific trof is expected to split as it moves inland, and current operational models and ensembles display plenty of spread with its impacts in our region. so this suggests cooler temps once we get past Sun. Expect warmer than normal conditions until then.
1055 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure will lead to a repeat performance of sunshine and seasonable temps on Tuesday.
We've also lost the inverted trough, which helped drive the abundant vertical ascent seen yesterday.
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front will stall along the North Carolina-South Carolina border through Tuesday.
932 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure across the region will keep our weather quiet overnight, with the only wx to mention is some patchy fog mainly expected in the river valleys and our Lake Cumberland region. In areas west of I-65, temperatures were mainly in the lower 80s, though the urban heat islands were already in the middle 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the low-mid 50s in typical cooler/valley locations. With high pressure to our east, we'll get into a return flow pattern which should allow afternoon temperatures to be slightly warmer.
554 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An extremely quiet weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week as substantial upper-level ridging becomes established across the western CONUS w/ a 596-597 dam high centered across the Great Basin.
420 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 19z surface analysis had low over southeast MB with trailing trough into northwest WY and cool front into MT.
/issued 339 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ The latest surface analysis places a cold front south of our area allowing for clear skies.
A weak cold front will cause winds to shift direction in much of northern New Mexico on Tuesday while bringing in drier, more stable air that will limit storm development even more. Showers and storms will be scarce for much of this week due to a strong dome of high pressure over the region. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the region through Tuesday night. Drier air aloft will continue to rotate around the high and into NM limiting convection.
1044 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure will lead to a repeat performance of sunshine and seasonable temps on Tuesday.
Winds in the lower and middle troposphere were very weak, averaging 3 knots between the surface and 10,000 feet above ground. Weak high pressure will persist over the Florida Keys and South Florida for the next several days.
/Issued 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ After a cool start this morning, temperatures have warmed back into the lower 90 across northeast Oklahoma under mostly sunny skies. Hot conditions expected on Tuesday ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around or shortly after 00Z.
939 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front will stall along the North Carolina-South Carolina border through Tuesday.
Look for hot daytime temperatures and mostly dry conditions through mid week with just a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of east-central Arizona. The main story over the next few days is the strong area of high pressure currently centered over Nevada. Northeasterly flow aloft around this high over our region has really dried things out, with dewpoints in the 30s/40s for most of northern Arizona.
Highs will remain consistent as well with temperatures in the low 90s.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1015 mb ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. This ridge of high pressure combined with a very dry airmass in place as noted by GOES-16 Satellite trends is resulting in clear skies, nearly calm winds, and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT in the 60s to middle 70s across the forecast area. /issued 339 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ The latest surface analysis places a cold front south of our area allowing for clear skies.
729 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure will lead to a repeat performance of sunshine and seasonable temps on Tuesday.
556 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An extremely quiet weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week as substantial upper-level ridging becomes established across the western CONUS w/ a 596-597 dam high centered across the Great Basin.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s to near 70. High pressure and dry air is building in behind the boundary for most of remainder of the area.
VFR conditions will prevail for the period due to High Pressure over the area. Faintly cooler daytime temperatures are forecast tomorrow afternoon due to an increase of cloud cover and precipitation chances.
1015 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure will lead to a repeat performance of sunshine and seasonable temps on Tuesday.
530 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Great Basin, leaving the western slope under a northerly flow aloft. This means the lower valleys of west-central and southwest Colorado as well as southeast Utah will see highs back in the 90s.
958 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 With high pressure and dry air over the Tennessee Valley, clear skies will prevail overnight. Temperatures overnight will fall down into the low 60s. Low-level southwesterly flow will continue to become more established across the forecast area tomorrow, as the amplifying trough in the northern stream advances further southeastward across southern Ontario and the Great Lakes. Modest lift in the low-level warm/moist advection regime will support a slightly greater coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms across our region, which should be maximized in the vicinity of the remnant frontal boundary across the southeastern half of the region and during the afternoon hours, when temperatures will warm into the m-u 80s and precipitable water values will rise back into the 1-1.
514 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 19z surface analysis had low over southeast MB with trailing trough into northwest WY and cool front into MT.
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through Tuesday under high pressure.
Sun, a few clouds, a little breeze and highs in the lows 80s? What more could you ask for on Labor Day? Today starts a trend of really nice days -- even Wednesday, when we could see a few thunderstorms on the Plateau, should be relatively nice.
A cold front approaches tonight and crosses the area on Wednesday, followed by high pressure for the balance of the week. Thus, many areas across the lowlands should reach the mid 80s this afternoon and in the mountains, highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to 70s. By tonight, an upper level trough will swing across the Great Lakes region and as this occurs, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley.
In fact, we have seen more shower and occasional t-storm over the waters and With respect to this disturbance in the Gulf, it will eventually become sandwiched between the subtropical ridge over the Bahamas and a longwave trough over the Great Lakes. Regardless, we'll keep an eye on it but it's nothing to be very concerned with at this point as whether it's a weak closed low or a tropical depression likely won't make much difference as both will produce enhanced rainfall. Temperatures are going to be seasonable during this time with the caveat that timing of showers and cloud cover will affect the highs north of I-4 (may remain in the mid 80s vs upper 80s, etc.
Stalled front to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast will continue light southwest flow. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s at inland spots and in the mid 70s along the coast. Southwesterly flow continues as an upper trough begins to dig across the eastern US, a frontal boundary across the southeastern US slowly moves south and high pressure remains to the southeast.
1142 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Great Basin, leaving the western slope under a northerly flow aloft. This means the lower valleys of west-central and southwest Colorado as well as southeast Utah will see highs back in the 90s.
949 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 19z surface analysis had low over southeast MB with trailing trough into northwest WY and cool front into MT. Tuesday/Wednesday, upper ridge over the southwest CONUS brings dry northwest flow to the CWA.
Temperatures on Tuesday will once again be pretty warm, as the southerly surface flow persists for a good portion of the day, prior to the cold front arrival. Areas across far northern Missouri will be in better position for cooler/drier/more comfortable temperatures on Tuesday, with areas along and south of I-70 likely remaining more warm/muggy/uncomfortable through at least the evening hours. In the wake of the cold frontal boundary, relatively cooler and drier air will move into the area for Wed/Thu.
329 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Upper Troughing and Severe Threat today followed by deamplification to quasi-zonal flow regime Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening with strong, unidirectional shear profiles indicating storm type will be linear with blowing line segments bringing primarily downburst wind threat but also QLCS tornado possibility. Environmental winds are strong with 40 to 50 knots near 5 kft AGL and some of this could mix down in the cold air advection behind the cold front, but more likely in any solid line of convection along or ahead of the front. Scattered showers will persist on Wednesday under upper troughing with diurnal and lake enhancement in the cool air.
High pressure across the region will keep our weather quiet overnight, with the only wx to mention is some patchy fog mainly expected in the river valleys and our Lake Cumberland region. In areas west of I-65, temperatures were mainly in the lower 80s, though the urban heat islands were already in the middle 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the low-mid 50s in typical cooler/valley locations. With high pressure to our east, we'll get into a return flow pattern which should allow afternoon temperatures to be slightly warmer. On Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a stacked low pressure system will scoot eastward, just north of the Great Lakes, while its trailing cold front advances to the southeast towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Behind the front, high pressure fills in over the region.
The Tri-State area remains under northwest flow aloft today with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS and high pressure centered over the southwestern U. Winds will gradually shift to the north this morning as a cold front slips into the region from the north. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to the low to mid-20s across the region this afternoon.
High pressure over Virginia slipping eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast will pump warm air into the region on southwest breezes that will take temperatures into the lower and middle 80s this afternoon. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, reaching the Ohio River around daybreak Wednesday. Occluded low pressure system will lift northeast over eastern Ontario on Wednesday, with a trailing sfc cold front likely just northwest of the Ohio River around 12z. Temps will be limited somewhat by the clouds, and then cooler/drier NW flow behind the front.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s to near 70. High pressure and dry air is building in behind the boundary for most of remainder of the area. With cooler high pressure building in behind the boundary, overnight lows tonight will range from around 60 across the Delta to near 70 in the Pine Belt. /15/ The cold front that moved through the region over the holiday weekend will linger in the southern part of the forecast area through mid-week.
345 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A weak cold front stalls out across the Region through Wednesday, creating mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Weak trough to our south may bring some showers to the southeast this afternoon, but rest of the area looks to remain dry. A Midwest trough will move east tonight into the day tomorrow, and bring a cold front towards the region. Not too much instability in place with the cooler temps, so not expecting any strong or severe storms, but some light rain will be possible especially in the east in the afternoon.
143 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Upper ridge was over the Pacific NW early this morning per Water Vapor Imagery. Forecast area was downstream of the ridge under anticyclonic NW flow. NW flow will continue over the region today and the upper ridge will translate E over the area tonight through Wednesday. Temps today will be a little above normal for this time of year and cooler than yesterday's temps. Wednesday will be a little warmer, with RH's in the teens to lower 20s. night, dragging a weak cold front through much of the area.
1251 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Mean western CONUS ridging will support overall warm and dry weather through this week. Breezy NW winds can be expected across the NW through central SD plains today on the backside of the departing upper trough.
Scattered thunderstorms are also possible across central and east central Wisconsin, and an isolated severe storms is not out of the question in the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties during the early afternoon if surface based storms form ahead of the cold front.
The upper level pattern bringing this nice weather to the Mid- South is northwest flow aloft, between an upper low to the northeast and an upper high to the west. There a couple waves that will move around the upper low that is near the Great Lakes and this will bring the chance of rain on Wednesday. By the weekend an upper high moves into the area.
The main weather feature on the maps to be concerned with in the short term is an incoming cold front, that will be poised across the upper Great Lakes region and down into the central Plains by 12Z Tuesday. The cold front should be entering our northwestern counties by around 03Z Wednesday and make its way across the area late Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours, lingering across the southeast even into Wednesday morning. We will see some weak cold air advection taking place through the day on Wednesday behind the front, so highs should only reach the lower 80s.
347 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 An upper ridge over the Great Basin is not expected to move much today. The main story will be a cold front moving through the area late this evening and overnight stemming from a system moving into the northern Great Lakes. The evolving Omega Block over the Great Basin is expected to continue to intensify through the end of the week, with a ~594 dam mid/upper-level anticyclone centering over the Four Corners region.
Last evening's 00Z upper air plots revealed a SW-NE trough axis from 700-500 mb that is progged to shift south along the Middle TX Coast today. Accompanying this trough axis is a narrow band of improved PWATs up to 1. Behind the upper trough axis this evening, convection will dwindle and large scale subsidence resumes. Upper ridging expands SE through most/all of our Gulf waters on Wednesday, and dry surface ridging also expands through the region causing PWATs to tumble to unusually low values for this time of year (0.
On that, hourly temps were about a degree warmer than previous trends, which was also reflected in the latest guidance. Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 87 65 82 / 30 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 86 64 81 / 20 10 30 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 86 61 81 / 10 10 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 65 84 61 79 / 10 10 30 30 0.
The result of a deep upper level low across James Bay and a strong upper level ridge centered over Utah. A Canadian cold front will clear swrn Nebraska this morning and temperatures at h850 should fall into the teens to near 20C. The high pressure will drift overhead tonight and the guidance blend plus bias correction gives lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Given the risk of anything more than valley fog is near zero in the SREF and HREF models, cooler lows in the mid 40s could develop. A weak reinforcing cold front will move into ncntl Nebraska Wednesday.
235 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Short wave trough entering Ontario continues to amplify or strengthen this morning. Will be watching southern extent of convection as associated cold front pushes through the area. As this passing wave becomes closed upper low north of Great Lakes we transition into cooler Wednesday with autumn-like clouds and possibility of some diurnal showers in northwest flow. By Wednesday night, skies should clear off again and with cooler temperatures and light winds, will have to watch favored bog areas in central Wisconsin for any frost possibilities.
311 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Upper level ridging will persist over the western CONUS through the period.
Weak ridging will remain across the area with the axis tending to reach across the Florida peninsula. The lower level airmass arriving from over Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean sea appears to have slightly lower moisture, with a PWAT of around 1.
323 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 High pressure remains in control through tonight keeping conditions dry. Another cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cool and dry high pressure settles back into the region for the end of the week. Dry conditions continue into tonight as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Return to summer Wednesday ahead of a front with deepening trough axis to the west. Models still showing a bit of a two part rainfall footprint, with one band of showers/few storms across the mountains of WV/SW VA and another east of the Blue Ridge with lower pops across the I-81 corridor. Will lean toward high chance to low likely pops across SE WV and east of the Blue Ridge, with 30-40 in between.
A new cold front will drop SE into the state late this evening and overnight.
A cold front crosses Wednesday afternoon and evening, followed by high pressure for the balance of the week. Another fine day is expected Tuesday as high pressure remains in control with highs across the lower elevations in the mid 80s with upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. A cold front will approach the region Tuesday night from the northwest, progressing through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
227 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 An upper ridge over the Great Basin is not expected to move much today. The main story will be a cold front moving through the area late this evening and overnight stemming from a system moving into the northern Great Lakes. The evolving Omega block over the Great Basin is expected to continue to intensify through the end of the week, with a ~594 dam mid/upper-level anticyclone centering over the Four Corners region.
204 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Cold front working its way through the region early this morning although any meaningful moisture displaced to our northeast and thus main impact from its passage will be in the way of gustier winds. Outside of the breezier conditions, a quiet Tuesday expected with the frontal passage flushing out yesterday's upper level wildfire smoke as well as ushering in cooler temperatures. Likely enough of a pressure gradient on the backside of the Great Lakes troughing to keep breezier conditions into Wednesday afternoon, although not as strong as today's anticipated gusts. Upper level ridging continues to build to the west through the second half of the work week.
Low pressure lifting northeastward from the northern Great lakes to Hudson Bay will drag a cold front across the upper Ohio valley Wednesday.
Dew point temperatures will tick upward into the lower to middle 60s as moisture pools ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Tonight, the moisture-starved cold front will begin its passage from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. PoPs were limited to the slgt chc to chc range, with the highest values across southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY where the better dynamics will exist. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 60s for most areas. However, by the afternoon, the entire forecast area should be basking under plentiful sunshine, temperatures in the lower 80s, and comfortable humidity values.
This will be accompanied by warmer than normal conditions with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today. 06Z TAFS: As high pressure builds in.
Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gust 30 to 35 mph will be possible behind the front, along with temps about from 5 to 11 degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. After a clear and cool night with lows in the lower 50s, bright sunny skies will continue Wednesday with highs again in the upper 70s to lower 80s and northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph.