Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO THE LOWER 50S. THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLDER NIGHT THAN LAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR COLDER. STATUS QUO WRT ENERGY /PRESENTLY OVER NERN NM/ IN BASE OF STRONGLY POSITIVE TILTED NOAM TROF AS IT SLOWLY STRAGGLES INTO MID MS VLY MONDAY NIGHT MINORING INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES ERLY TUE. HIEST NRN/NERN CWA AS DEEP CYCLONE GRADUALLY FILLS ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS AS PROGRESS HALTED AMID STRONG DOWNSTREAM ERN CANADIAN MARITIMES/NEW ENGLAND UPR LVL RIDGING. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST AS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW THAT IS SPINNING TO OUR SOUR SOUTH AND HAS PROVIDED SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING TO SET UP. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHWARD AND WILL BRING WITH IT MORE RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK MVFR/IFR SHOULD RETURN ACTUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH. PRIOR TO THE STORM SYSTEM THE AREA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECT WARMER AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH.
435 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND NOW A STRONG WEDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CWA. MOST PLACES ACROSS NORTH GA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY 00Z AND THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE STRONG WEDGE STAYS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH TEMPS NO GETTING MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WILL BE ENHANCED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GA TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTH. AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE COPIOUS SUNSHINE. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE WILL BE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. RAINS SHOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
235 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALSO BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SE CWA AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE RIDES OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL AND DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS START OVER THE NE UTAH MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE LOW EXITS IT IS DRAGGING THE RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
246 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
117 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
359 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 AT H5 UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE LOWER 48 EXTENDING WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO GULF MOISTURE BLOCKED. COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE MID-RANGE AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW DEVELOPSAND ADVANCES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRALPLAINS. ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENTAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS TO HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE.
/ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ INDICATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS DEEPENING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY INTO THE WRN GULF AND SRN LA COAST. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CNTRL NM. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRAVERSING ESE INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLIES TONIGHT. LEAVING BEHIND A RESIDUAL W-E TROUGH/VORTICITY AXIS ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. WHILE EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
309 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
1117 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-WEST WITH MODELS SHOWING INCREASING UPPER JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF BREAKS AT TIMES IN THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FORM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
926 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015 ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO SHOULD AT LEAST SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP. EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE NEXT POTENT TROUGH ALOFT PULLS INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH.
444 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 High pressure will drift directly over Illinois tonight. Lowered the lows in that area to include upper 20s, otherwise the forecast appears on track. The pesky cirrus that has been periodically affecting areas south of I-70 the last day or so should get shunted southward with time, as the upper trough currently overhead shifts east and spreads drier air into the area. Overnight, skies will be mainly clear as high pressure drifts eastward through the area.
1049 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015 ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO SHOULD AT LEAST SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP. EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE NEXT POTENT TROUGH ALOFT PULLS INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH.
434 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
258 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 High pressure is building into the region slowly, but the stalled front south of the Ohio River Valley is keeping the cloud cover in place over the forecast area this afternoon. The southern half of the state will remain above freezing. Problem with that is that temperatures in this area are forecast to be close to freezing, but feel it will have a tough time getting to the ground, so will continue with just slight chances in the morning hours over far west central thru southeast IL and keep the precip type as rain with temperatures a degree or two above freezing.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GA AND RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING. DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TODAY WILL EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NC.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
1200 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM THE LAKES AREA OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF THE BEAUMONT AREA. /ISSUED 355 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS VERY SLOW ERLY PUSH AS IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. ALLOWING RAINS AND COOLER AIR TO SETTLE IN IN ITS WAKE OVER THESE AREAS.
113 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS.
324 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 321 PM CST A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THIS HIGH AND THE CORRESPONDING RIDGING IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
412 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TURN WINDS NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY.
230 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO REGION. POPS WILL THUS BE ON THE DECLINE FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND RETURN THE TEMPERATURE BACK TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. RESIDUAL RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
COLD AND WINTRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY AS THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SHOVED EASTWARD BY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER UTAH AS ITS STRETCHED NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE THE PLAINS MAY START TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING BACK IN WITH THE SNOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXTEND FM WYOMING INTO UTAH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SRN PORTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
LIGHTEST WINDS NEAR ANB/ASN CLOSER TO RIDGE. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED MGM/TOI AND MORE SOUTHERLY TCL/EET/BHM AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF RIDGE.
304 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
156 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN TO A CRAWL AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OWENSBORO KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH MEMPHIS AREA TO JUST WEST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
405 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
1144 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Will allow the winter weather advisory to expire at noon, and will follow with updates to grids and products to remove freezing rain. Temperatures have warmed to right at to just above freezing across the northern big country this morning. Freezing rain has ended for the KABI airport as temperatures have warmed above 32 degrees. Freezing rain will continue at the Abilene terminal until the air temperature warms above the freezing mark around noon today. With temperatures this morning continuing around the freezing mark, across some of our northern counties, a wintry mix of precipitation remains possible. Beyond noon and for tonight, temperatures should remain above the freezing mark across all of West Central Texas.
307 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A SUNNIER SKY WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
333 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHER HILLS EVEN WARMER THAN THAT. ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PUSHING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW NORTHWARD THROUGH WYOMING. UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH AN AREA OF Q VECTOR FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ON CROSS SECTIONS AND VERTICAL COLUMN NEVER BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG HORNS WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
Our forecast area will continue to be influenced by a deep layer ridge over the Southeast. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s under mostly clear skies.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF IS STILL IN PLACE BUT CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN AND VAST CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SKIM THE HUN FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ELSEWHERE. BEING ON THE OUTSKIRT OF THE RIDGE.
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN DELTA AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THAT AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER MID TO UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. THE MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT.
1257 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
1203 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 The cold front that moved through the region has stalled out south of the Ohio River Valley. 08z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front draped along the Ohio River, with 1037mb high pressure centered over southwest Minnesota. Due to overcast conditions and a brisk northerly breeze, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a few degrees, resulting in high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday, keeping the primary baroclinic zone suppressed well to the south.
200 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Latest observations show temperatures have been warming ever-so- slowly today, w/most locations right at or abv freezing. As a result, we've allowed the WSW to expire, as best chances for precip overnight will be over the warmer SE zones. Icy roads have not been a problem, but re-freezing overnight may create a slick spot or two of black ice, and elevated surfaces will be a concern as well. As is their wont, models are too wide on diurnalspreads, and have forecast afternoon highs that will not be realized, and overnight lows that are warmer than what's occurring now.
THE AIRMASS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVED IN YESTERDAY REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWEST 3500 FEET.
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AVIATION WE/LL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
254 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
345 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
238 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY TODAY AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST RELOADS THANKS TO ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD CAUSING LIFT WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WHAT WAS ESSENTIALLY TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME ONE. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW ELONGATES ACROSS WYOMING.
COLD NIGHTS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST AR TO FAR WEST TN TO NEAR KSDF. VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR A KMEM TO KSDF LINE AT 18Z SHOULD CONTINUE CREEPING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
1051 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 The cold front that moved through the region has stalled out south of the Ohio River Valley. 08z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front draped along the Ohio River, with 1037mb high pressure centered over southwest Minnesota. Due to overcast conditions and a brisk northerly breeze, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a few degrees, resulting in high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday, keeping the primary baroclinic zone suppressed well to the south.
1040 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THUS, WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY'S UPDATE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S. EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE HELENA VALLEY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY END BY LATE MORNING. MT WILL BE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21Z OR SO TODAY. THE DENSE FREEZING FOG IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z ONCE AGAIN IN THE HELENA VALLEY.
200 PM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AND WITH WEAK LIFT PRESENT AND THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE IS ABOUT A 105NM SWATH OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE STORM WITH SOME WRAPAROUND WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700MB LOW. BUT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
308 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A SUNNIER SKY WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
1042 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Freezing rain advisory cancelled for Osage / Pawnee counties with temp just above freezing. The heaviest rain will remain across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas nearest the low level jet and consequent maximum in low level moisture transport. With this trend expected to continue, the freezing rain area to the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma is at its maximum extent. Western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties could see an additional tenth of an inch or so of ice accumulation before surface temperatures warm above freezing late this morning. The only change to the existing Freezing Rain Advisory will be to push back the expiration time to noon.
GIVEN THE RATHER LIGHT WIND TONIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LODGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1230 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 HYDRO WE/LL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
228 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
A LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E-NE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EROSION OF THE LOW STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ RAIN-COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT FARTHER SE INTO THE CWA. THE MORE SOUTHWARD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.
118 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES RETROGRADING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDING INTO FL AND THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SE AND A TROUGH UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. AS THE RIDGE CENTER DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE TROUGH WASHES OUT, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX, BUT CONTINUING BREEZY NE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
ESPECIALLY THE LOWER LEVEL OVER THE EAST AND FOOTHILLS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE RATHER SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW THEY ALL HAVE DECENT QG ASCENT OVER OUR AREA AT THAT TIME AND OVERNIGHT. THIS JUSTIFIES THE HIGH POPS THAT WE HAVE IN THE GOING FORECAST.
232 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE GALVESTON ISLAND AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. THE AREA'S COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE SPREAD ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY.