Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
A Light Wintry Mix A cold front is currently moving through the area this afternoon with a quick hitting cold snap for the weekend. Clouds will increase on Saturday and temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing over southwestern Missouri and will be in the middle 20s across central Missouri.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER TODAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER DRIER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. /ISSUED 1051 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TX.
358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FLATTENED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GETS BRIDGED BY ANOTHER VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE MS VALLEY.
1025 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED AS OF 16Z, A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO ROUGHLY STRETCH FROM GTF TO BIL. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT AND POINT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS ANALYSIS OF RADAR/DUAL POL DATA AND SFC OBS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIP IS SNOW ALONG THE HI- LINE WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. HOWEVER, WITH SFC TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING IN A FEW SPOTS, SOME FREEZING RAIN STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST REACHES OF THE AREA WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THOSE LOCALES TODAY. WHILE SUN IN AREAS SOUTH AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THERE. /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OVER IOWA AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
116 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM SUNNY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS TONIGHT FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MIGHT SEE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY AS CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE IT WILL BE WARMER. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETREATS EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF COVERING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. LOOKING FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE LEMMON AREA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CAMPBELL AND WESTON CO IN WY. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS. BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS NW/CNTRL SD MIGHT SEE LIGHT FZRA IN THE AFTN HOURS IF 800MB WARMER LAYER DOESNT COOL QUICKLY ENOUGH.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS. OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT.
305 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AND MOST AREAS ARE SEEING A NICE WARM UP DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.
426 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS.
347 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN HOWEVER THE SATURATION PROCESS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WITH RESIDUAL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
130 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
1119 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front will move through the area this morning. Temperatures will still warm into the low to mid 40s across extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri by midday. Highs across central Missouri will only warm into the lower 30s today as temperatures fall into the 20s this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the region tonight and Saturday.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT.
302 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 Cold high pressure is streaming down the Plains currently with the center of the high passing to our east.
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A large area of high pressure extending from here into the Canadian High Plains will be responsible for a return to cold air over the weekend, and this could bring the coldest air this area has seen since mid-January.
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
COLD AIRMASS QUITE SHALLOW BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE ERODING OUT LATER TONIGHT. WARMER AIR RETURNS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS A BIT TRICKY OVER THE PANHANDLE. SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT.
12Z CANADIAN SLOWER THAN PREV RUN NOW MATCHING OTHER MODEL TIMING BUT CAME IN A TOUCH WARMER THAN 00Z RUN.
BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISINTEGRATE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND POOL SOME COOLER AIR IN ALOFT OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH MID 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE WILL CAUSE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE TO EVOLVE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center). Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest far sections after midnight.
330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AND CAUSING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NW WI. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SW WI.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY THIS AFTN. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND 700 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 14C.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND THE FORECAST ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING IN CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
421 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE WIND FIELDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THOUGH TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER VORTICITY SURGE UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS FURTHER BACK AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE HAVE JET MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL. SO COOLER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT NOT ANY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND ISSUES. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF IS LESS NORTHERNLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH. REIMER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
402 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS LOOK DRIER AND MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TODAY.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TODAY/TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST.
127 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPANS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER TO NRN MICHIGAN. RETURN FLOW AND WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE PLAINS UP INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A QUIET AND RELATIVELY COOLER NIGHT AHEAD. WARMER AND MORE HUMID.
304 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW NOTED OVER THE CWA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NATION'S MID SECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT AS FAVORABLE MIXING OCCURS UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT. TODAY: COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS UPSTATE SC/SOUTHERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. TONIGHT: ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT UPPER TROF AXIS ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BREAK IN THE RIDGE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL.
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES (AROUND 80 METERS) IN SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOSTLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AREA.
334 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS EVIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AND MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE AREA. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WERE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCERS. LOW LEVEL CU WILL DISSIPATE AND THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO MIX OUT. WINDS ARE VEERED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL IS BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE.
315 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH ALSO HELPED TO BREAK UP AND LIFT THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH A SSE FETCH AS REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
MEOSANALYSIS SHOWING SOME WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER INTO NORTHWEST MN. BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTH/NORTHEAST MN. AND A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURING PREDOMINANT SEMI- ZONAL FLOW LOCALLY ATOP MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
While the low clouds will erode by mid-morning, scattered high clouds will likely persist across much of the area throughout the day. This should keep temperatures at or just slightly cooler than what we saw yesterday. Skies will gradually clear overnight as the subtropical ridge regains command over the southern plains.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BUT AS THE TROUGH GIVES A BIT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MONSOON PLUME IN THE HIGH WILL BULGE WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
344 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHERMORE A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AT 700MB JUST UNDERNEATH THE CREST OF THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD LOCATION FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE PERSISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL INCREASE OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN OUR FAR EAST. TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WAVES MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NYE. STRONGER WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY THANKS TO A TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELYS SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY ON THU WITH A WEAKENED MOISTURE PLUME LEANING OVER TO OUR EAST. WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET STREAK (~25 KTS) AT 850 MB ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TN WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE HIGHEST THREAT WITH STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LOOKS GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GA. COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE ON THURSDAY DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
244 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IMPROVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AS 850MB TO 700MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
/ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015/ TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL CONTINUE A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL.
324 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN KICT COUNTRY EAST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN & CENTRAL KS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE 65-70 IN MOST AREAS. TODAY & TONIGHT: *CORRECTED* ONE CHARACTER THAT CONTINUES TO DRAW CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IS THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THIS WEEK. UNDERGOING WARM FRONTOGENESIS. THU-FRI: WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER-DECK RIDGE PUSHING E ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY THE FURNACE WILL BE TURNED UP. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT & SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO VENTURE SE TOWARD CENTRAL KS.
150 PM MST WED JUL 22 2015 A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEK.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MAXIMIZED ACROSS EASTERN NC EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT DAYTIME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITHIN THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AFTER MID-NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. UPPER TROF AXIS ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAP CONVECTION.
As we head into Thursday, ridging to the south will begin to advect north and continue through the latter half of the week.
THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS A DRY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BRINGING THE COOLEST WEATHER.
231 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS AIDING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
333 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THUS MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH WARMER THU THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
THE LOW 90S FOR ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAN BE SPOTTED ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FLOW TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH WESTWARD MOVING RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN DRYING AND SYNOPTICALLY WARM.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S TODAY. TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.
202 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO CONTROL THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT. BROAD UPPR LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
258 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRYING TO ROUND AND UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAVE LED TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. A WEAK WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE BREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINES (LOWER 70S). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
351 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY TO NORTHERN MAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THU.