Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
450 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 CURRENTLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY.
418 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 ALOFT: THE COMPACT UPR LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS AND WINTRY WX WAS OVER ERN NEB/KS. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF AND EMERGE OVER NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
405 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH DEEP ERN TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WILL WE GET PRIOR TO ONSET OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CLOSED LOW ALOFT. BEFORE DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EWD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE OLD FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NWD OVER THE AREA.
INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THE PASSING STORM WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MN. BUT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND ALONG WITH RISING DIURNAL TEMPS.
309 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 Cold front currently surging toward northern Mexico with high pressure building southward into the forecast area behind it.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY TEMPS WILL POP INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST.
426 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT, ACROSS THE REGION, WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES STILL JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT RAIN. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
ALOFT: THE COMPACT UPR LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS AND WINTRY WX WAS OVER ERN NEB/KS. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF AND EMERGE OVER NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
Cloudiness will gradually increase and lower to MVFR levels overnight as a cold front approaches. MVFR vsbys will also be possible with storms ahead of the cold front which will begin to spread from west to east across the forecast area around 23Z. Our forecast area will remain under the "protection" of a deep layer ridge overnight, with fair skies and low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. A closed upper low moving across the Plains tonight will become an open wave across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region tomorrow. A cold front associated with this will push across the South tomorrow into Friday.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. REGARDING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH TO SEE THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT BENEATH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS. BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA BUT BROADEN AND CALM WINDS DOWN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
Main focus will be with remnant convection for remainder of overnight and then freezing temperatures possible on Thursday night. Dry line and cold front will continue to surge eastward during the remainder of tonight and into today as the main upper level wave opens up and lifts northeastward. Temperatures will begin to drop into the 30s this evening and at or below freezing after midnight tonight. The northwest flow today and tonight will gradually become more westerly to southwesterly on Friday as an upper level jet dives southeast into the Rockies and begins to carve out a trough.
342 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WANES LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR RUSHES IN. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. CL COLD FRONT WILL BE A QUICK MOVER. DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. COLD FRONT PASSES SWIFTLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS DUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT SEE MUCH RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
412 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR TO END THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEAKER SE FLOW OVER THE LOWER SUSQ WILL ALSO CEDE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. AND THEN SWINGS EASTWARD TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PA. BUT EASTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LUNCHTIME BEFORE FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
The upper level low driving all the sensible weather last night will continue to move away from the forecast region. In the wake, high pressure will build in. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this afternoon as relative humidities will be higher given the cooler temperatures. For tonight, weak High Plains lee troughing will developing with a light southerly wind continuing through the overnight. Mins in the lower 30s are expected.
505 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING A QUICK PASSAGE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND AS OF 440 THIS MORNING WAS NEAR A HOPE ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY LOUISIANA. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRED OUT IN FRONT OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A QUICK TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HELPING NUDGE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES AN OPEN INTO A WAVE WITH OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPLITTING FROM A LEAD SHORT WAVE RETURNING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALBEIT STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MIGRATE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO ABOUT NOON.
445 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN THE MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
249 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN THE MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG PACIFIC WAVE DRIVES THROUGH. ONCE THAT WAVE PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR AND ENHANCE UPSLOPE WINDS FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW BEHIND THE CORE OF 20 TO 30KT 925MB WINDS OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A POCKET OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SPRINKLES. READINGS WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 40S AND 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS THANKS TO STRONG MIXING THAT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO RIDGING ALOFT AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS/GREAT BASIN.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING.
422 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 MONITORING THE RADAR AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. OVERALL BROAD CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
154 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MINS BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER VALUES. THE MODELS DEPICT RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WEAKENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT.
316 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 Pre-frontal trof now moving into central MO will be the main focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms today. Once the front passes east of the region later today, high pressure will be quick to build in tonight and Friday.
STRONG FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH AROUND MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FURTHER ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THAT EVENING WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
Guidance also wraps around enuf warm air around the low at low levels that suggests any precip will remain liquid rather than snow. Mdls depict a couple of rounds of SHRA until chances increase Sat night thru Sun as the upper trof approaches the area and the fnt sags swd into the area.
248 AM PDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. WITH MOST LOCATIONS RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
641 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 21Z THUR-03Z FRI. SFC WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING SPREADING SCT MVFR/IFR SHSN SE.
WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL STRONGLY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE TODAY. THAT SHOULD OFFSET ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SLICKNESS ON ROADS. WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS IN THE HWO TODAY AND PUBLIC GRAPHICS TO COVER THE LOWER THREAT OF SLICKNESS. AND LIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FAR NORTH WILL SEE SOME PCPN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA. WITH COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BLO AVERAGE.
WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF THIS WET AND WARMER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMEMBER THAT WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! WITH MANY SOUTH FLORIDA AREA SCHOOLS IN THEIR SPRING BREAK AT THE MOMENT, REPEATING THIS MESSAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE SUMMER COULD HELP SAVE A LIFE! GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL CREATE SCEC CONDITIONS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
340 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
349 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO HILLSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE.
THE QLCS PROGRESSING SLOWLY THRU WRN AR WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE A BIT AND ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AFT 17-18Z IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
154 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND. COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO SE GA/NE FL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND STALLS FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE AS ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES WITH YET ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST WITH ENERGY EJECTING TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EASTER WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
1055 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A PERSISTENT/LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DURATION. AS THE LOW NEARS. AS THE LOW CENTER ITSELF LIKEWISE TRACKS SELY INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER AWAY WITH TIME.
811 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WE MUST CONSIDER POSSIBLE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEAR AND NE OF DFW AREA AIRPORTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. AS THIS BOUNDARY WASHES OUT TOMORROW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ALL OF UTAH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP COLD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NRN MINN.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THIS SEEMS TO BE DELINEATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REACH SAINT LOUIS AROUND 15Z SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL BY 21Z SUNDAY WITH A LINE OF STORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT FORCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE CWA NOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE KATY AREA. WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAVE VERIFIED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS WELL /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S/.
/FOR THE 06Z TAFS/ AT 04Z THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH KGUY. /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NW KS AND CEN CO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT ARE WELL REMOVED TO THE NE. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT PROMISES TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHCS IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME AS THE UPR RIDGE BACKS AWAY TO THE WEST AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/WV ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THE FROPA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
READINGS ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE EARLY DAY MAXES WE SAW TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER COLORADO EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY.
STILL SEEING THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH LINGERING OVER NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING. AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER SE BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SCT CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD S OVERNIGHT INTO NRN AND ERN OK/NRN AR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST HOUR MUCH AS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING.
AFTER 06Z ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1223 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT 19Z THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO 70S.
726 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 SYNOPTICALLY WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NE NEAR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER THEY ARE LOSING STEAM AS THEY MOVE NE WITH GENERALLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL ALSO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A WARMER START AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY ON AVERAGE.
Meanwhile, strong upper level energy moving east across the Dakotas will drive a cold front southeast into northern Missouri and along the I-35 corridor in Kansas by late evening. The actual cold front will then pass southeast through the Ozarks from the predawn hours through the day on Sunday. Most areas are then expected to dry out Sunday night as high pressure and a drier/cooler air mass builds into the region.
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AT 19Z THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO 70S.
SOME STORMS WITH THE LOW STILL BUT WEAKENING. AND STORMS THAT WERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DIED OUT. NEW STORMS FORMED NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BRAINERD SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP TIL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE C AND E U. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER 90S.
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Upper level trof continues to slowly move east across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River valleys this afternoon. Cold front still expected to approach the region late tonight/early Sunday.
Upper level trof continues to slowly move east across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River valleys this afternoon. Cold front still expected to approach the region late tonight/early Sunday.
1012 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY AND WARM.
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A BIT THRU SUNDAY.
THESE RAINS MAY BE THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BE- GINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION - ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE MON/TUES AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SOME DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SE TX BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS POPS FALL ONCE AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COLD FRONT IS SCREAMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
934 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAPID SCAN VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
701 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WAS PROVIDING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH COOL AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR MID AUGUST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN INCREASING 300 MB JET AND THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 25 TO 35 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE HIGHEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PLAN ON A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MUGGIER DAY WITH HIGHS NEARING SEASONAL NORMALS /MID TO UPPER 80S/. USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.