Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
an upper level trough and nearly saturated 850- 500mb relative humidity axis extended from North Dakota to Hastings to the Texas panhandle early this morning with some light precipitation noted within it. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s. Under the low clouds could be some fog and later shifts will need to possibly add to the forecast. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits to mid teens across the west with low 20s across the east (under the low clouds). High temperatures should reach the low to mid 40s, maybe a few degrees higher. This should push the low clouds out of the area but could be replaced with some mid and high clouds.
This system, the associated cold front, and above normal moisture content (NAM deterministic PWAT values), will contribute to isolated/scattered convection today.
Recent high-resolution model runs have suggested that the air being brought northward by this system is warmer and more moist than previously expected. Widespread light freezing rain is no longer expected given warmer near-surface temperatures, but locations in southwest Minnesota northeast of the Buffalo Ridge (such as Marshall, Tracy, and Windom) could still see a light glaze during the day. Winter Weather Advisories highlight the areas most likely to be affected, many of which could see some light snow mix in during the morning commute, especially if temperatures trend a couple degrees cooler than consensus guidance. Patchy drizzle can't be ruled out either given the deep layer of saturation in the lowest few thousand feet. Given surface temperatures eventually fall below freezing across portions of the area overnight, this makes freezing drizzle a possibility.
As the upper level system responsible for the stronger winds and mid-level cigs over northeastern NM exits eastward into TX, a ridge moves in from the west bringing skc and mostly calm conditions at ground level. The current trough will exit eastern NM early this morning. A back door cold front has pressed south to Roswell with gusty winds behind it. Much cooler temperatures will be the rule in the east today, while western areas will experience around 5 degree cooler temperatures.
415 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Dry high pressure will build in from the west today into Thursday.
844 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Current temps are running 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning, providing a chilly start to the morning with temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s. High pressure will be the predominant weather feature today, keeping conditions dry and cool. As the ridge slides eastward today, SW flow aloft will return and start to increase cloud cover throughout the day. Otherwise, look for daytime highs to reach the lower 50s. A secondary surface/upper low still forms in most guidance as this system pushes from southeastern Alabama into Georgia Thursday into Thursday night.
302 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 A mid level trough is currently moving over the TX panhandle and an associated cold front is sweeping through our region this morning.
808 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Clear skies expected into the afternoon with weak upper ridge passing over the area. High pressure will build from the northwest this morning, to the north late Today through Tonight. An inverted trough is expected to develop along the coast overnight into early Thursday. An area of low pressure will move east across the area Thursday night, with the associated cold front moving through.
Clouds off to the northeast creeping their way southwestward towards the mid state this morning, but the clear skies and cold temps allowing for some freezing fog to develop especially near bodies of water. Satellite/obs showing some freezing fog along the Cumberland River east of Nashville and around other lakes/river east of I-65. Conditions will be dry today and tonight before the Plains trough moves east towards the area overnight. Models continue to track the upper low slightly further north, but still along the TN/AL border by this evening. After 00Z, the upper low looks to be near the TN/AL/GA border right as temps fall behind surface northerly flow and diurnal effects. Best omega values are along the southern half of the Plateau closer to the upper low.
558 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Precipitation expectations remain optimistic as satellite imagery depicts an elongated low pressure along a negatively tilted axis through OK, KS, and NE. Southerly midlevel flow has kept temperatures above freezing diminishing concerns for winter precipitation. Models show a few waves passing through our area, but the lack of moisture and surface ridging means minimal impacts outside of some chilly windy days.
Occluded low pressure south of Yarmouth, NS is nearly in the same spot it was this time yesterday morning and expect this feature to only creep slolwy east into Thursday. While I can't rule out a stray flurry or a brief bout of very light freezing drizzle about anywhere at any time, scant coverage warrants no mention in the zone-averaged forecast for tonight into Thursday.
A warm front will lift through the Northland this morning and then stall out just east of the Minnesota Arrowhead over Lake Superior as it runs into strong high pressure centered over James Bay. Low pressure in the Missouri Valley will spread precipitation over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, but the high pressure to the northeast will keep the Northland dry. Confidence is this system is further reduced by the blocking pattern in place as well. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to impact the terminals through much of the period as high pressure and a low level inversion remains in place. High pressure will prevail through the forecast period resulting in winds of 5 to 10 knots and waves of two feet or less.
401 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 A weak upper low has basically stalled over the James valley. Meanwhile, an inverted sfc trof lies just to the west of the James River in NE SD. The surface trof has shown little movement in the last couple hours, and will probably just gradually fall apart today as the upper low gradually fills. Roads have already been reported slick over parts of the region due to fzdz, but mainly over the Coteau where sfc temperatures have been right around freezing.
652 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Threat of any freezing rain has ended with snow winding down as dry air continues to erode the northern and eastern extent of coverage. Impacts and concerns in the short term involve this mornings inverted trough and weakening system affecting portions of southeastern ND. Thursday is expected to see high pressure build into the area from the east with better changes for clearing skies on the MN side of the FA.
Mid level ridging from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper Great Lakes shifts southeastward by Thu. Sprawling high pressure beneath this ridging slides to the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a mid level trough from the Upper Midwest to the southern high plains cuts-off and ejects into the central Gulf coastal states. The increase in moisture along with the approaching cold front will support some scattered showers Thu afternoon for parts of the Nature Coast and the northeast Gulf waters.
Upper ridge will build across the region today, keeping the weather dry with just an increase in high cloud streaming overhead.
1059 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure southeast of the region, with inverted trough stretching north through eastern portions of NE and SD. Upper level analysis shows the trough very slowly shifting east of the region. Forecast soundings support some potential for light freezing drizzle as well over south central SD late tonight. Clouds will increase from the west across the rest of the area on Thursday as the next upper trough approaches.
256 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Dirty high pressure was over the local area early this afternoon with plenty of low clouds and visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s with a few upper 20s south. Winds will be light out of the northeast, with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s.
Mid level cyclogenesis is about to be underway to our southwest, as a PV max over the TX South Plains rounds the basal portion of an elongated longwave trough over the central part of the CONUS. Additional rounds of precipitation are expected thru the night and into Thursday in association with the approaching upper low and wrap-around bands. The thermal profile aloft will cool from north to south tonight and Thursday as colder air is brought in toward the upper low, supporting a change over to snow. This is a situation where elevation will play a key role where temps will be a few degrees cooler and will support snow all the way to the ground. Outside of the highest terrain but over the Ozark Plateau, lighter amounts are expected but still could cause some travel impact.
1110 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Cancelled the winter weather advisory a little early this morning given that temperatures are above freezing in most locations. A weak upper low has basically stalled over the James valley. Meanwhile, an inverted sfc trof lies just to the west of the James River in NE SD. The surface trof has shown little movement in the last couple hours, and will probably just gradually fall apart today as the upper low gradually fills. Roads have already been reported slick over parts of the region due to fzdz, but mainly over the Coteau where sfc temperatures have been right around freezing.
241 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Quiet afternoon expected as our upper-level ridge overhead will continue to drift eastward.
A warm front will lift through the Northland this morning and then stall out just east of the Minnesota Arrowhead over Lake Superior as it runs into strong high pressure centered over James Bay. Low pressure in the Missouri Valley will spread precipitation over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, but the high pressure to the northeast will keep the Northland dry. Confidence is this system is further reduced by the blocking pattern in place as well.
300 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 The ridge in place will slide eastward overnight a deepening trough digs into the Lower MS Valley. Ahead of the trough, we will see an increase in SW flow aloft and moisture starting to return. We will hold onto easterly winds at the sfc and drier air in the low-mid levels which will help delay the onset of any precip. Skies will be overcast and combined with the WAA, overnight lows will not be as cold, reaching the the low to mid 30s.
1013 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Cancelled the winter weather advisory a little early this morning given that temperatures are above freezing in most locations. A weak upper low has basically stalled over the James valley. Meanwhile, an inverted sfc trof lies just to the west of the James River in NE SD. The surface trof has shown little movement in the last couple hours, and will probably just gradually fall apart today as the upper low gradually fills. Roads have already been reported slick over parts of the region due to fzdz, but mainly over the Coteau where sfc temperatures have been right around freezing.
Some patchy fog has also shown up on webcams with the low cloud deck and fresh snow cover so added that to the forecast for the next few hours, but might have to be extended if it persists. Unfortunately, this area will likely be under thick cloud cover all day and temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing, so icy roads may remain icy through the day. Only a few small areas north of I-94 and east of the MO River are likely experiencing a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation should slowly wane by the morning hours as the trough slides southeast. Western ND should warm up nicely again today under clear skies, while locations east of the MO River will likely struggle to rise above freezing.
854 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 High pressure building into the region today will bring drier conditions, above normal temperatures, and another round of gusty southwesterly winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
1043 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 An upper level low pressure system continues to dig into the Southern Plains this morning. Rain associated with the upper level low is occurring across Western Arkansas at this time. Otherwise, rain should hold off until after midnight when rain begins to spread into Northwest Mississippi and Phillips County, Arkansas as the upper level low tracks near the AR/ LA border. /issued 340 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ Ridge over us continues to move east which brings in the next system. A trough will dig in over the southern plains. The low pressure will track south of our area bringing in rain for the area. A deep layer of dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere will make it difficult for showers to reach the ground before 12z.
High pressure over the Ohio River Valley will move eastward toward the Atlantic over the next couple of days.
1147 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 An upper level wave is working its way across the Central Plains today with the associated cold front expected to already be off to our east by day break. Accumulation amounts have continued to trend down, especially given the slightly warmer temperatures delaying the transition to snow. We'll be in weak northerly flow aloft tomorrow as the trof to the east deepens into a closed low over the Ozarks. Highs are expected to be slightly cooler tomorrow, in the mid 30s across south central NE, and near 40 across north central KS.
1217 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Dry high pressure will build in from the west through Thursday.
An upper level trough will develop into a closed upper level low as it moves across the lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Thursday. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s inland to low 50s along the coast.
349 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. This will result in some drizzle and freezing drizzle (depending on surface temperature) occurring, especially in the weaker showers where cloud top temperatures are warmer. Temperatures at night will be in the upper 20s, increasing to the low to mid 30s during the daytime hours. Ridging will persist across the region through the forecast period, with dry conditions expected.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper level low is currently dropping southeastward across the TX panhandle into western north Texas. Ahead of this feature a cold front at the surface has pushed eastward into central Oklahoma with gusty north winds and a drop in temperature seen behind it. As ascent ahead of the upper low increases this afternoon expect showers to continue to develop within a nearly stationary band, roughly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will stay well above freezing tonight in areas with precipitation, so no winter weather concerns are expected. With the widespread clouds and cold air advection, high tomorrow will only reach into the low to mid 40s.
Plenty of cirrus continues to spill over that ridge axis across the forecast area. Areas south of roughly a Hardinsburg to Jamestown line have seen more partial/filtered sunshine and are now in the lower 40s. Tomorrow, an upper low rotates out of the southern Plains and moves east-northeast into the TN Valley. This moisture in a deformation zone to the north of the low pressure center moves east over western KY Thu afternoon and into central KY Thu evening. Any precip would be very light though and mainly liquid due to near-sfc temps above freezing.
1008 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Upper trough will shift to the east today, but will be slow to completely exit the region. Have noted some light returns on radar over the eastern plains but with drier air quickly moving in and with cloud bases mainly on the higher side, don't think any precip is making it to the ground.
The slow moving long wave trough remains in place through the central CONUS this afternoon with the main short waves near the Siouxland area and digging through the base of the trough into Texas. The kinematic forcing will spread east across the state somewhat, but be undercut by 1-2km dry air feeding SE-NW from the Upper MS Valley anti-cyclone keeping much of the area dry. As the short wave in the base of the trough matures tonight well to our south, it will somewhat strengthen our easterly low level flow and allow for the current IL and eastern IA stratus and fog to advect west for yet another cloudy, foggy night.
121 PM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 High pressure over the area today and gusty winds in the foothills. Cold front will arrive after 6 AM in western zones tomorrow. A better and deeper push of cooler air will kick in during the afternoon with a notable switch to brisk north winds.
An approaching low pressure system will bring increasing clouds this evening and rain showers overnight.
212 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Broad mid-upper level troughing has shifted east into the Atlantic, while weak ridging briefly sets up over the southeast U. A closed upper low and trough currently located over the central U. On the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast U. Models are spinning up the next area of low pressure and cold front currently located over eastern Texas and is expected to move through the southeast U.
Temps through this afternoon will hold above freezing. MVFR stratus will persist across the area during this forecast period with light northwest flow veering to the north as high pressure centered well to the north slowly builds south into the Great Lakes. Orphaned mid-level low will continue its southward track through the central Great Lakes today, eventually merging with a broad North Atlantic trough. While a PV anomaly spins northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday guiding a stacked low toward the Atlantic, the strongest jet dynamics reside well to the south (over the southeastern states).
Current temps are running 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning, providing a chilly start to the morning with temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s. High pressure will be the predominant weather feature today, keeping conditions dry and cool. As the ridge slides eastward today, SW flow aloft will return and start to increase cloud cover throughout the day. Otherwise, look for daytime highs to reach the lower 50s. A secondary surface/upper low still forms in most guidance as this system pushes from southeastern Alabama into Georgia Thursday into Thursday night.
1045 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure building into the region today will bring drier conditions, above normal temperatures, and another round of gusty southwesterly winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
1108 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough swinging across the Texas Panhandle. As of 3 AM the associated cold front is dropping southward across the South Plains and Permian Basin, with gusty northerly winds occurring behind the front. Otherwise, expect much cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon behind the front.
Temperatures continue to remain quite mild, with many locations already in the low to mid 30s. Not expecting much sun today, but with filtered sun and highs in the lower 30s, would expect improving conditions throughout the day. Threat of any freezing rain has ended with snow winding down as dry air continues to erode the northern and eastern extent of coverage. Impacts and concerns in the short term involve this mornings inverted trough and weakening system affecting portions of southeastern ND. Thursday is expected to see high pressure build into the area from the east with better changes for clearing skies on the MN side of the FA.
Meanwhile, mid level ridging will strengthen as it expands from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. The associated region of low to mid level anticyclonic flow will affect Se Mi into at least the middle of the weekend as a quasi blocked flow becomes established with a slow moving Upper low traversing the southeastern US.
Could see some enhanced snowfall amounts roughly along the Highway 60 corridor from Fordland east if this verifies. A dusting of snow is possible across portions of the area tonight into Thursday, with greatest potential for measurable snowfall of up to 1-2 inches generally along and south of the highway 60 corridor. Surface temperatures will be a big player in amounts and impacts, with most areas staying at or above freezing tonight. Rest of the forecast period is cooler and quiet. A low pressure system will bring cooling temperatures tonight, which will lead to a switch to wintry precipitation tonight into Thursday morning.
(This evening through Thursday) Cold front had pushed across Wet Central Texas and brought gusty north winds in its wake. The upper trough swinging across the area today will shift east tonight and bring dry northwest flow for Thursday.
The quiet weather period with warmer than normal temperatures looks likely to continue for much of this period. In addition to providing a chance for precipitation it could also bring in some warmer air as suggested by on the NBM temperature percentiles.
Additional moisture will begin to move in late tonight ahead of tomorrow's trough axis moving through the region.
A cool dome of high pressure at the surface will remain in place across the Central Plains tonight and Thursday as a developing upper low over eastern Oklahoma slowly moves east. Moisture/cloud cover rapping around this upper low will spread westward into portions of southwest Kansas late tonight and Thursday. Near the Colorado border where more sun than clouds are expected the highs will rebound back into the mid 40s. Later shifts will need to monitor some possible enhanced lift northwest of the eastern Oklahoma upper low.
Weak upper level ridging over the region will slide east tonight as a developing storm system over the Southern plains moves into the lower MS Valley. An inverted trough developing along the coast into early Thursday will cause isolated light showers to develop over the coastal waters and spread in cloud cover from the southeast.
Large area of high pressure remains centered from James Bay thru the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley into the SE US. Some breaks in the low OVC have developed over Eastern Upper MIchigan likely due to downslope flow out of Ontario into that area. Expect overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 20s across Northern Lower Michigan.
151 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through tonight supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle are possible as well. One last trough and spoke of vorticity rotating around the remnant mid level low is crossing the North Country early this afternoon, supporting a band of light snow showers. The remnant of the closed low will continue to drift south and open up into a trough, reaching the northern Mid Atlantic later tonight. Forecast soundings suggest the cloud layer may become warm enough to eliminate most of the ice nuclei, bringing the chance of a little patchy light drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight through Thursday morning.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper level low is currently dropping southeastward across the TX panhandle into western north Texas. Ahead of this feature a cold front at the surface has pushed eastward into central Oklahoma with gusty north winds and a drop in temperature seen behind it. As ascent ahead of the upper low increases this afternoon expect showers to continue to develop within a nearly stationary band, roughly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will stay well above freezing tonight in areas with precipitation, so no winter weather concerns are expected. With the widespread clouds and cold air advection, highs tomorrow will only reach into the low to mid 40s.