Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm and dry conditions will persist for a couple of days, before an approaching upper trough cools temperatures for the middle of the week. An approaching weak cold front may increase cloud cover across Del Norte County tonight as a weak frontal approaches the region. Overnight lows were also lowered for tonight and Monday night, as the observational trend this past weekend has been for many of the valley locations to drop into the lower to mid 40s, which has been running about 5 degrees below the coolest model guidance. Heading into the middle to end of the week, an upper- level trough dropping south across the state will cool the interior high temperatures, as they drop back into the 80s.
301 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will provide generally quiet weather into midweek with above normal temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 50s and highs on Monday will reach into the lower 80s.
/Issued 351 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/ Upper level analysis shows a cutoff low slowly pushing southwest off the coast of southern Cal while the main upper trough swings east through the midwest states.
Believe we'll still see some more warmth push east as the trough progresses eastward and clouds start to diminish late this afternoon. Clouds will diminish and a weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. lows should only dip to the low 50s across the area. Upper level zonal flow will continue with broad high pressure in place across the upper Midwest.
341 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A wave of low pressure will move along a stalled front along the coast later tonight and Monday.
Today will be much quieter than the previous days as high pressure settles in overhead. Dewpoints will be a bit drier as winds, under the influence of an elongated surface trof/front over the midwest and central Canada, will be out of the southwest.
626 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight. Trough and weak boundary will push east diminishing showers Monday afternoon.
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A deep plume of moisture will provide for clouds and showers this afternoon into Monday until the weak upper trough moves to our east Monday. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. The higher probability of rain/showers shifts eastward fast this forecast period and rain should end in the eastern areas.
High pressure continues to strengthen over South Central TX today into Monday, leading to a threat of record highs. SAT has the best chance of reaching a record with slightly cooler records to reach than our other 3 climate sites. The upper ridge appears to be doing a fine job of deflecting much of the moisture over the unstable Eastern Pacific/TS Paine well to the west of South Central TX, but it will be interesting to see if a small amount of this moisture wrapping around the periphery of the mid/upper level Ridge is sufficient to destabilize the mid levels as a weak mid level shear axis sags south into Central TX late Monday.
Charlotte Ridge has reached 0. Tonight through Monday morning should be a bit cooler than this morning with some areas of cloudiness and fog mainly west of the Cascades. It should be a few degrees cooler on Monday for highs, but not much cooler.
Once trough axis passes, expect improving radiational cooling conditions as winds slacken and upper clouds move on. Monday will feature mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s.
A low pressure center off the Baja coast and a high pressure center over Texas bring moisture from Tropical Storm Paine over Arizona this week.
Minimum temperatures Monday night will be warmer as warm advection continues to push into the area under the upper ridge.
An upper trough, currently diving east-southeastward over AR, and accompanying poorly-defined surface "cold" front, will approach our forecast area from the northwest overnight.
340 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the forecast area in the short term with mainly clear skies through the short term period. Heights will rise slightly through Monday as the ridge of high pressure slowly builds to our east.
Southerly flow ahead of the trough axis across IA with WAA and increasing sfc dewpoints. As for temperatures bumped overnight lows a nudge warmer given the push of moisture with dewpoints expected to push into the 60s across much of the CWA overnight.
today is shaping up to be a beautiful late September day with well above normal temperatures as highs climb into the lower to middle 80s. 850 temps this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday by 00z as southerly flow returns following the passage of a weak warm front this afternoon. This will mark the beginnings of a fairly decent warming trend as highs on Monday flirt with the 90s degree mark out ahead of a weak cold front that will be sagging south through Iowa throughout the day. latest model runs have backed off on precip chances for the lower Missouri Vly Monday afternoon as convergence into the aforementioned front remains weak at best.
334 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to build over the next several days resulting in a typical late summertime and early fall weather pattern. With very little change in the synoptic pattern today as compared to recent days - featuring even warmer 500 hPa temps above -5 C and significant amounts of dry air in the mid and upper levels, have gone with a persistence trend in composing the forecast for the near term period, with near term model guidance likely overdoing convection for the rest of today.
Already starting to see development of light showers in NW Atlanta and expect precipitation coverage to increase through the day as upper trough and associated surface front approach NW Georgia. Have generally gone with a blend of the cooler models for highs today to capture the CAD.
These temps are likely to mix down towards the sfc, raising highs well above normal into the lower 90s. Given that dewpoints peak in the lower 70s, there may be a few hours of heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range. Mid-level ridging will continue to maintain is presence across the central plains through midweek.
That will be the end of POPs until late week when impacts from developing longwave trough begin to influence the region.
A warming trend will take place across the area through Monday as high pressure prevails.
These height rises will continue again on Monday as upper ridging builds overhead.
124 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A weak cold front will move slowly southeast into the region today.
Used a blend for model guidance lows with a slight preference towards the cooler side.
06Z surface data indicates high pressure running from the western Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk issued for portions of the area next 24 hours but at best this event would be isolated and strengths of severe phenomena of gusty winds and possibly small hail to be on the lower end. Lows by morning should be in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.
247 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Tropical Depression Julia will drift slowly north toward the region through mid week and interact with a slow moving cold front producing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the north late week. On Monday better forcing ahead of approaching upr trf and cold front will lead to numerous shra all areas with a few tsra poss. Increased pops a bit thru Wed with upper low to the SW and plenty of moisture across the area.
The cold front will move through after 00z but low-level moisture remains plentiful behind the front with MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected at all of the terminals late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Therefore, rain chances were kept in the low side of the spectrum, and if any develop or stream into our area, these will remain mainly over the open waters of the Straits of Florida and the extreme southeast Gulf. Regardless, temperatures will remain in a steady cycle, reaching near 90 during the afternoons and the lower 80s during the early morning hours.
/issued 1117 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/ An upper level trof will swing through the Mid-South this afternoon. An area of showers and thunderstorms that has developed across Arkansas in association with the trof will push into the southern portions of the Mid-South. a slightly drier and cooler airmass will filter into the region. but a few degrees cooler than last week. in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, so at least it should feel a bit cooler.
Tonight through Monday Night Focus for showers and thunderstorms today was over the lower Acadiana.
Any remaining rain showers overnight should taper off by dawn tomorrow, as the upper level trough swings through the area. The trough is expected to be east of the area by tomorrow afternoon, with skies quickly clearing from west to east behind it. With the ground now saturated, and cooler temperatures this afternoon, it won't take much for dense fog to set up. Upper ridging across the southeast U. into the central Appalachians, as well as cyclonic flow anchored by an upper low across Hudson Bay into Quebec.
The main question throughout the day has been how much of this inversion will be eroded by the upper trough sliding through the region and radar observations have shown an isolated cell near Monroe at press time. This while the upper trough continues to drift over lower Michigan and as surface dewpoint holds up to boundary layer mixing through peak heating near the Ohio border. Departure of the upper trough by mid evening will then leave weak high pressure in control through tonight, at least at the surface. Upper level height falls associated with the next low pressure system will progress rapidly eastward and promote backing flow aloft over lower Michigan.
Dry weather expected through Monday as upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region and broad ridging approaches from the west in quasi-zonal flow aloft.
Forcing is rather weak and the lower atmosphere relatively dry. with temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today behind the cdfnt. Upper ridging across the region will bring warm and dry weather to the area Tue. Cooler air will push into the area Tue night into Wed with more seasonable highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. A Pacific Northwest upper low will slowly approach the region towards the end of the week.
246 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 An upper level ridge will build over the panhandles early this week, keep temperatures above normal.
High pressure ridging into the area from the north will weaken today. An approaching cold front will move into the area Monday. The development of a weak upper level low will keep the chance for convection across the area through much of week. The upper level ridge over the area will give way to an approaching upper trough and associated cold front which will enter the area Monday. Weak convergence into the ridge and daytime heating have produced a cumulus field over the area. With increasing cloudiness limiting radiational cooling, expect lows around 70 degrees into the low 70s tonight. An upper level trough and its associated weak cold front will cross the area Monday.
Upper trough still back to our west with axis down through southwest Missouri into eastern Oklahoma. Trough will swing across Tennessee tonight and I may need a small evening pop but will wait closer to press time to include if needed.
The subtropical ridge axis is centered along the Rio Grande into Southern Texas.
After that, dry weather is forecast with weak high pressure in control. A strong 500 mb ridge over the Southeast and Lower Ohio Valley will bring dry conditions through the rest of the workweek. Over the weekend, there is a wide range of model variability regarding how quickly the ridge breaks down. Overall, the models have slowed the eastward progression of troughing from the western states. Therefore, pops are a bit lower and temps a bit warmer for the weekend than previous guidance.
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A minor upper level trough was moving east across the central portions of the state early this morning. The upper trough axis will shift eastward across the CWA through 12Z. I suppose as the H5 trough moves east across the CWA there could be a few sprinkles or light showers across the eastern counties as well. Today, the upper trough will move east-southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley. Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 60s. By Monday morning, a mid level ridge will be located over the southern CONUS while a trough axis is located along the east coast.
Medium Quiet weather is expected through most of the night as high pressure continues to pull away ahead of an approaching trough.
There are some isolated thunderstorms to the west across the higher terrain of West Texas. But, steering flow will is from the west/northwest, and once these storms move off of the higher terrain, they will likely dissipate. Have kept the dry forecast going for tomorrow as the upper level ridge strengthens over our area.
317 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A dissipating cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build over the region from the southwest later tonight. This high will linger over the region through Monday night.
603 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A deep plume of moisture will provide for clouds and showers this afternoon into Monday until the weak upper trough moves to our east Monday. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. The higher probability of rain/showers shifts eastward fast this forecast period and rain should end in the eastern areas.
239 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A weakening cold front will approach from the northwest through the remainder of today before stalling and dissipating over the region tonight through Monday night. High pressure will build into the region for mid to late week.
A couple of frontal systems, rotating around an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska that is moving toward the area, will move though Western Washington tonight and Monday.
For the majority of the upcoming week the forecast problem will be temperatures as convective potential will be all but eliminated with the drier air in place and broad scale subsidence associated with mid level ridging.
98 inch PWAT, however much of the moisture is in the lowest levels with much drier mid/upper levels. High pressure aloft will continue to suppress convective development today, although a few shra/tsra will remain possible due to low level convergence along the sea breeze and over the waters where stronger instability is located. The mid level ridge will hold over the region today and then shift to the west into northern Mexico into southwest Texas on Monday.
For now, though, VFR CIGS are expected with SHRA activity mainly confined to the higher terrain, especially the west slopes where upslope flow should help in the development of SHRA.
The chance for isolated showers will not completely end until a mid level trough crosses the area and ushers in drier air late tonight. Temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
245 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Dry with above average temperatures, then cooler heading into mid-week with a slight chance of Sierra showers. The marine layer is absent and temperatures are running around 2-5 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Strong high pressure continues warm and dry weather through Monday.
Height rises will occur over western and north central NE through the period as the 500 hPa pattern transitions and becomes more zonal with mid level ridging occurring over the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a surface leeside trough will develop near the Front Range and extend from southeast WY-NE Panhandle through eastern CO by this afternoon. High pressure continues to build over the southern plains through the beginning of the week with abnormally hot temperatures lingering underneath.
Skies currently clear across the area under high pressure. But later in the day we will see some upper support added to the picture as the leading edge of a short wave trough moves into MN. This also drives a cold front into the region which should help to focus the meager moisture.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A NICE DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID 60S INLAND.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THOUGH SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING.
245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 A deep upper level low will move from the Ohio Valley into the southeastern U. Deep cyclonic northerly flow will result in cooler than normal temperatures today. This will result in a rather large temperature gradient this afternoon, as high temperatures range from the lower 60s in southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile to the lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks. In the wake of the departing low, a large ridge of high pressure will migrate eastward from the Plains through late week.
148 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PIVOT MORE TO THE SW.
Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across southern Indiana. Have followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance in our eastern counties. Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING MIXING.
THEN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW EAST OF OUR AREA.
THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 47 73 50 / 30 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 46 69 49 / 60 50 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 46 70 49 / 60 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 43 63 46 / 80 70 40 20.
However, northwest winds will be gusty today behind a cold front. A deep upper trough will be in place across the eastern states today. We are on the west side of this trough with dry northwest flow and the surface cold front through the area. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 70s to near 80 across the area.
High pressure will shift off to the east and light and variable winds will eventually become light southerly. Minimums heading into Friday will be in the lower 50s. Tranquil weather will continue for Friday as lee troughing prevails.
625 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
310 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CLOSED LOWS FLANKING A STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S DEPARTING LOW WILL SPELL STEADY HEIGHT RISES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE A DEEP MIXED LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE EVENTUAL DECOUPLING UNDER CLEARING SKY IS LIKELY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE CHOICE DAY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORCED OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNS SW.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT THROUGH KAPF/KMKY WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.
224 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Area will be under nly flow within the highly amplified flow today. The upper low will continue to sink swd today with a vort max spreading clouds across the ern portions of the CWA today. However, have generally trended slightly warmer as less cloud cover is expected today.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING.
340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Benign weather to continue through the remainder of the work week as large-scale ridging seen over the Rockies this morning shifts east with time. high pressure expected to drift over the area today with winds largely remaining light and variable through the day. The combination of building heights along with increasing 850-mb temps should allow highs to reach into the lower to middle 70s across much of the area. Even warmer temps likely Friday as southerly flow returns as high pressure settles well to our southeast.
300 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH STRONG WARMING INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide will move east into the high plains Tonight. Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves into the high plains Tonight.
1130 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CO HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. AND HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST APPROACHES CENTRAL CA COAST LINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CI SPILLING INTO THE CWA. UPPER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CWA. WHICH IS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CA/NV. FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE PAINTED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES.
A LARGE AND ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST IS PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS A NORTHEAST WRAP AROUND FLOW PULLS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE CWA AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER BUT THEN WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.