Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a cold front is progged to bisect the forecast area on Monday resulting in a wide range of temperatures. Often times, the cold front will surge further south than progged, which would result in much cooler air across southern KS on Mon afternoon. As temperatures fall below freezing, light rain may mix with snow with a light dusting possible. This ridge will be replaced by a general broad cyclonic flow across the central CONUS Thu-Fri generally supporting seasonably cool temperatures and mostly dry weather conditions. As we move into the weekend we'll see rising heights/increasing thickness and much warmer air returning to the Central Plains. Areas of 2-4SM BR are likely across SC & SE KS early this morning as a weak sfc trof traverses KS.
230 AM PST Sun Jan 26 2020 A weak trough will move across the State today, bringing cooler weather, a deeper marine layer, and gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts. It will be warmer on Monday as winds turn offshore and the marine layer thins.
318 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Areas of dense freezing fog have developed across northern Missouri as of early Sunday and additional development is expected as the morning progresses. Further south, patchy freezing fog is possible through mid-morning, as well. A thin glaze of ice may develop on roadways as a result, primarily across northern Missouri, but also where patchy freezing fog develops elsewhere through much of the forecast area.
Satellite shows this wave has passed by, but again, we're still dealing with a little mid level moisture trapped in the high country. For tonight, moisture and lift ahead of the next upper level trough will spread across the forecast area. Scattered snow showers will also continue after the upper trough passes, as the flow aloft becomes northwesterly which will favor some orographic snow shower development. As the upper trough moves out over northeast Colorado Monday afternoon and evening, light precipitation is expected to spread out onto the plains. With Monday afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, precipitation will probably begin as rain and then change over the light snow.
417 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 High pressure will build in very slowly from the north through the next few days. The high pressure will keep it mainly dry for most of the upcoming work week. Some clouds, a breeze, and temperatures above freezing across much of the area. This has resulted in patchy dense fog, and with temperatures near freezing, have a SPS out until to just after Midnight. The upper low spins overhead or just to our north through the night. The upper low lifts away on Sun, but the westerly flow will last through the period. Mins tonight could be very homogeneous with at least partial clearing and lighter wind in the east overnight, they could be cooler than the cloudier, slightly more windy west.
950 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 High pressure still in control for today and looks to be a beautiful day to wrap up the weekend. A weak low pressure will move across the state on Monday but rain chances will remain low.
Accumulations less than a half an inch are possible mainly for areas in the south due to those locations being closer to the low pressure system thats tracking across the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures should stay warm enough in the precip area to keep any freezing wording from the forecast.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Weak/shallow cold front associated with a weak impulse in nwly flow aloft making its way into our region this aftn.
933 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 MORNING UPDATE: Updated wind grids to reflect the higher winds in the central and eastern zones along with the observed wind gusts across the area. Rux PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Radar and observations show a little lingering light snow in the east, which may mix with a little light freezing rain before ending this morning. After a weak cold front clears the area today, precipitation focus will end and attention will turn more toward low clouds and fog and potential impacts to travel and to aviation. For today, light snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, will be a concern for KSDY to KGDV. Tonight, low stratus and freezing fog will be a concern across taf sites.
High-res guidance is hinting at patchy freezing drizzle and flurries potential heading into the early morning hours tomorrow associated with a subtle disturbance dropping south across the area. Highs Monday top out in the 30s again with cloudy conditions continuing with another round of patchy light freezing drizzle possible again late Monday night.
A small low pressure center is currently taking shape off the Upper Texas coast. Once it reaches the northeast Gulf later tonight, it will make a right turn and sink southward just off the West Coast of Florida, thanks partly to high pressure building in to its north. By the time it reaches far Southwest Florida, the closed low will devolve into an open trough and a weak cold front.
As the evening progress, low level moisture looks to become deep enough (more than 1km) at times, along with a weak mid-level trough providing weak lift, to produce some patchy freezing drizzle. , but prefer to have at least a slight chance for the freezing drizzle, so added it to the forecast. The freezing drizzle and refreezing of wet pavement could lead to some slippery roads and surfaces. For Monday, any lingering freezing drizzle will end early in the day as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west. Monday Night Through Sunday Surface-based high pressure will move slowly toward the east through the Great Lakes region during the upcoming work week. Temperatures will generally be a little warmer than normal for this time of year in northeast Wisconsin, with highs generally in the 30s and lows in the 20s.
Thinking the low stratus will prevent temperatures from cooling much so this should mainly equate to wet roads.
a cold front is progged to bisect the forecast area on Monday resulting in a wide range of temperatures. Often times, the cold front will surge further south than progged, which would result in much cooler air across southern KS on Mon afternoon. As temperatures fall below freezing, light rain may mix with snow with a light dusting possible. This ridge will be replaced by a general broad cyclonic flow across the central CONUS Thu-Fri generally supporting seasonably cool temperatures and mostly dry weather conditions. As we move into the weekend we'll see rising heights/increasing thickness and much warmer air returning to the Central Plains.
The system does not look all to impressive with rotation only seen on the surface with a trough aloft and PWs only reaching around 1.
258 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Fairly quiet weather pattern this week with just occasional chances for light snow showers or freezing drizzle.
Rain has been moderate at times in the lower elevations, with Burns having reported over a third of an inch so far, Ontario nearing 0.
138 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Mean western CONUS ridge will persist through the week supporting mild westerly flow most of the period. Cold front is settling south across the region with low clouds and some light drizzle affecting portions of NW SD. Warmer conds on track for Tues and Wed with perhaps a few diurnal showers over the higher terrain per mixing and weak impulses. A cold front draped across far SW ND/NW SD will slowly push southward this afternoon and evening. The low ceilings will persist through Monday morning as light snow and rain showers arrive by late Monday morning.
239 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 The main concern in the short term will be for fog including dense freezing fog tonight into tomorrow morning. This setup with persistent light winds as high pressure is in control at the surface will lead to widespread dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning and as such a dense fog advisory has been issued for visibilities being reduced less than 1/4 mile. Fog will again be persistent tomorrow morning and that will again act to hold temperatures down to the lower 30s across the north to the lower 40s south where fog will be less persistent and under partly sunny skies.
a pretty nice day ongoing with temperatures mainly in the low 40s east of the Laramie Range and low to mid 30s west. Looking at snow amounts in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Range approaching a foot with 2-4 inches in the lower elevations of Carbon County. Another area of concern Monday is the Pine Ridge in the northern Panhandle into Niobrara County.
Before the cooler air arrives though, we'll see another day of temperatures well above normal across the region. The cold front associated with the first of two disturbances will begin moving through our area Monday evening.
1031 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Cyclonic flow, in the wake of low pressure centered over New England and the Canadian Maritimes, will continue through Monday. High pressure will build toward midweek. Mountain snow showers may be a little more prolific in the wake of this trough, but still not more than an inch or so of additional snow.
Weak high pressure ridge shifts east of area Monday night.
For tonight, light east winds will veer to the south overnight, as a weak surface pressure ridge axis shifts east across parts of eastern Oklahoma and Texas. With mostly sunny skies, 850mb thermal ridging and some downsloping with the winds, temperatures on Monday will be warm and well-above normal for late January.
With warm advection continuing through tonight, and the cold front passage holding off until morning, temperatures will remain nearly steady tonight in the 40s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 53 34 53 37 / 70 30 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 50 35 49 35 / 80 60 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 49 33 49 34 / 80 60 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 46 33 44 31 / 80 80 30 10 10.
235 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 A broad upper level trough extends from the central part of the country to the east coast with another trough moving over the west coast. The trough from the west coast will move over New Mexico on Monday with winds strengthening out of the west across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Strong winds from the base of the trough will mix down and may result in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. There is a slight chance for rain across portions of the area Monday night as the upper trough moves overhead and proceeds eastward.
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible, especially Monday morning.
827 AM PST Sun Jan 26 2020 A weak trough will move across the State today, bringing cooler weather, a deeper marine layer, patchy drizzle this morning and gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts. It will be warmer on Monday as winds turn offshore and the marine layer thins.
Where temperatures are below freezing, patchy freezing drizzle was occurring. Some patchy slick spots are possible but with pcpn ending, temperatures warming above freezing and marginal road temperatures -- expect improving conditions. Highs today will range from the mid 30s in West Central Ohio to the lower 40s in nrn KY. Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing, so some freezing drizzle is also possible. Important to note that nighttime low temperatures below freezing and stubborn low level moisture could lead slick spots during the morning commutes over the first few days of the period.
This feature will aid in bringing the cold front currently over Upper MI slowly swd across srn WI and Lake MI late tnt. A potential for patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle may be added to the forecast with this frontal passage. Modest wnwly winds over Lake MI will shift nly from north to south across the lake from late this afternoon through tnt due to the passage of a cold front. The modest nly winds will become light for Mon nt toward the middle of the week as large high pressure slowly moves ewd across Ontario. We'll need to watch for additional light precipitation this evening as a weak upper level trough axis and low level boundary move through. Monday will be dry as a brief upper level ridge moves over the area.
1134 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Areas of dense freezing fog have developed across northern Missouri as of early Sunday and additional development is expected as the morning progresses. Further south, patchy freezing fog is possible through mid-morning, as well. A thin glaze of ice may develop on roadways as a result, primarily across northern Missouri, but also where patchy freezing fog develops elsewhere through much of the forecast area.
High-res guidance are hinting at patchy freezing drizzle and flurries potential heading into the early morning hours tomorrow associated with a subtle disturbance dropping south across the area.
251 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 A short wave moving through the lower MS Valley.
1054 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 MORNING UPDATE: Updated wind grids to reflect the higher winds in the central and eastern zones along with the observed wind gusts across the area. Rux PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Radar and observations show a little lingering light snow in the east, which may mix with a little light freezing rain before ending this morning. After a weak cold front clears the area today, precipitation focus will end and attention will turn more toward low clouds and fog and potential impacts to travel and to aviation. For today, light snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, will be a concern for KSDY to KGDV. Tonight, low stratus and freezing fog will be a concern across taf sites.
With a lack of ice in the clouds expect supercooled water to produce freezing drizzle with sfc temperatures below freezing. Have a mention of freezing drizzle in HWO overnight into Monday morning. Expect lows from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south of the Ohio River. A period of freezing drizzle is possible from late tonight into Monday morning. Can not rule out the re-development of freezing drizzle Monday night but at this time confidence is not high enough to mention in the forecast.
High pressure across the north Florida/Georgia has allowed for light northerly winds across the area today. A drier airmass across South Florida, leading to mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s today across the region. The weakened low pressure system and the front associated with it will exit the area Monday night, with clearing and brief northerly winds behind the system.
Despite lingering low-level moisture, the lack of upper-level lift has diminished the chances of snow showers this afternoon for areas <1,500ft; higher POP chances will stay focused in the ridges due upsloping. Areas north of I-80 and the ridges have the best shot of snow accumulation; 1-2 inches is likely. If ground temperatures fall just below 32F, isolated freezing drizzle may prevail. With building high pressure in eastern Ohio, drier air may advance into the DGZ, especially south of Pittsburgh. With shallow low-level lift, freezing drizzle may continue to impact isolated areas during tomorrow's morning commute. Snow accumulation potential will continue to be best along the ridges and the far northern CWA due to lake enhancement, with another 1 to 2 inches expected.
Expect ground temperatures to be above freezing so any precipitation should be liquid.
155 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Latest upper air and satellite analysis show areas of clouds in the northwest flow over the Plains, with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A closed low was present over North Dakota. Tonight a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast ahead of the closed low that will move southward into the Central Plains. As a result temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night.
Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted upper lows over the eastern Great Lakes and ND, and a upper ridge across the Intermountain West. Will continue the High Wind Warning through its 8 AM expiration. Above normal temperatures in the 40s to around 50 are forecast east of the Laramie Range this afternoon as the ridge passes overhead. Snow showers will redevelop west of the Laramie Range this evening ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Rain may mix with snow over the high plains Monday afternoon before changing to snow before tapering off Monday evening as the trough exits into the Great Plains.
Skies are beginning to clear Sunday afternoon now that the cold front has moved east.
Expect them to drop to IFR once again with a round of possible freezing drizzle overnight. A brief period of very light snow or freezing drizzle could clip Lafayette and Green County late this afternoon and early evening. This feature will aid in bringing the cold front currently over Upper MI slowly swd across srn WI and Lake MI late tnt. A low potential for patchy freezing drizzle and very light snow has been be added to the forecast with this frontal passage.
544 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Tonight-Monday: Main concern this period will be location/timing of backdoor cold front.
The latest data show no warm nose wetbulb above 0*C to melt snow before refreezing in both the RAP and NAM. Therefore, freezing rain and sleet were mostly stripped out of the forecast this evening into tomorrow. Areas of patchy fog along with the low stratus clouds are possible tonight around the Opheim Plateau.
While a bit of a near surface dry layer precludes a 'classic' freezing drizzle sounding appearance, overall looks to be freezing drizzle with perhaps some light snow mixing in at times (which matches what has been observed upstream). By daybreak Monday, PV anomaly should be to the south of our area and thus ending any lift and freezing drizzle. With the inability to reload any significant troughing or moisture return, not expecting any significant precipitation over the next several days.
Look for highs to range from the lower 40s in central Missouri to the lower 50s in far southwest Missouri.
138 PM PST Sun Jan 26 2020 A weak trough will move across the State today, bringing cooler weather and gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts. Warmer weather will develop on Monday as winds turn offshore and the marine layer thins.
Cloud cover will help keep temperatures in the low to mid 40s tonight under light southerly winds.
A weak weather system and associated cold front will continue to move through central Idaho and western Montana this evening into the overnight hours. Widespread precipitation has developed, causing light snow in the higher terrain and over mountain passes and a mix of rain and snow for lower elevations. A mix of very light snow and freezing rain is possible for a short period. With temperatures hovering right around or just below freezing in many valleys, locally slick roads are possible due to black ice.
/Issued 251 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020/ A short wave moving through the lower MS Valley.
306 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Tonight-Monday: Main concern this period will be location/timing of backdoor cold front.
Ridging aloft will continue tonight maintaining drier mid and upper levels. Strengthening onshore winds on Monday will bring slightly warmer temps and increasing moisture/clouds back across S TX.
The weak isentropic lift ahead of the trough will keep these light rain showers or drizzle over the region overnight.
431 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 The upper ridge over the Intermountain region moves over the Rockies tonight and across the central High Plains region as it flattens ahead of the approaching broad latitude upper trough on Monday.
\/Hodanish Upper trough approaches the area overnight, leading to thickening mid/high level cloudiness after sunset. On Monday, trough swings through the state, with weak upper level low closing off over ern NM by evening. Should be enough lift for fairly widespread snow showers over the mountains through the day, and some light accumulations (generally 1-3 inches) will be possible, especially over the high peaks back toward the Divide. Max temps at many lower elevation locations will get well above freezing in the morning/early afternoon, before precip arrives and temps begin to fall late in the day.
The clear skies combined with very light winds and relatively low dewpoints in the 50s have allowed for excellent radiational cooling during the evening, with the RAWS site at North Big Pine dropping all the way down to 51 degrees already, and a few other interior sites in the Lower Keys such as Sugarloaf Shores and the NWS office here in midtown Key West dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula, with a weak low pressure area and associated cold front over the western Gulf.
High pressure at the surface will then build in from the north. Upstream, UVM ahead of 5h trof axis is touching off numerous SHSN over Lake Erie which will reach into the WC and NW Mountains overnight. The snow showers will gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the day on Monday as the trough axis left behind from the upper low will be overhead in the afternoon.
An upper level ridge will move out over the High Plains later tonight and Monday. This will push a backdoor cold front south through western Kansas early Monday morning. The southern part of this trough will dig into the Panhandles and northwest Texas Monday night. Precipitation with this system will start out as light rain by mid evening Monday and then change over to light snow as a combination of low level cold advection and evaporative cooling of the lower layers takes place.
244 PM PST Sun Jan 26 2020 Low pressure moves east of the forecast area this evening with a few rain and snow showers lingering into central Nevada early this evening and around Surprise Valley tonight.
Surface analysis late this evening shows weak high pressure in place across Missouri. An isolated flurry or freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. The aforementioned upper level wave passing through the region early Monday should be south of the area by midday with any flurries and patchy freezing drizzle ending by late morning.
this could be slightly too cool, if stratus moves in as expected it could keep temps a bit warmer.
216 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 A Pacific cold front will bring scattered rain and snow showers to the region later this afternoon through tonight.
443 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Mean western CONUS ridge will persist through the week supporting mild westerly flow most of the period. Cold front is settling south across the region with low clouds and some light drizzle affecting portions of NW SD. Warmer conds on track for Tues and Wed with perhaps a few diurnal showers over the higher terrain per mixing and weak impulses. A cold front will push through Monday afternoon, bringing gusty northwest winds and IFR conditions as light rain and snow showers cross northeast Wyoming and far western South Dakota.
315 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 The upper ridge over the Intermountain region moves over the Rockies tonight and across the central High Plains region as it flattens ahead of the approaching broad latitude upper trough on Monday.
258 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 An upper low over the central Dakotas was slowly advancing southeast today. Wrap around low level moisture was laying over northeast Montana into parts of southeast Montana (basically from around Miles City to Ridgeway). Models produce a healthy shot (3 to 6 inches) of snowfall for the mountains, with less over the lower elevations. 10 inches of qpf over most of the lower elevations tonight and early Monday. This should translate to less than an inch of snow for most locations, with possibly an inch or two for the higher hills over southern Big Horn county and Sheridan county.
447 PM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion A Pacific cold front will bring scattered rain and snow showers to much of the region tonight with and area of more widespread snow over southwest Montana.
With this in mind, guidance is not overly excited about developing widespread dense fog either, probably due to the low cloud ceiling still in place. Weak high pressure ridge shifts east of area Monday night.