Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the area this morning, and these features will remain in place through Friday. This weekend low pressure will move across the plains which will push a cold front into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. The southerly flow ahead of the front and around the ridge parked over the southeast states will draw in moisture from the gulf.
356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A broad upper trough is over the Upper Midwest with a cutoff low over southern California and Arizona. The upper low will begin to become connected with the upper trough to the north later today. The upper low becomes a part of the upper trough to the north on Friday. Surface winds will become south to southwest pushing the higher dewpoints to the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through Friday.
NW winds will become gusty behind the cold front this afternoon and a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Fort Peck Lake. Another cold front moves south across the region during the day on Friday morning with limited moisture. However, moisture on SW flow aloft to the east of an upper low over the Pacific NW will begin to overrun the front which will be near the MT/WY border by Friday evening.
The cold front that brought storms last night has moved into southern MO, which has allowed lower dew points to filter in making it a very nice day today. The beautiful weather will stick around tomorrow with high pressure moving east through the region. Friday, southerly flow will return ahead of a developing low pressure system.
349 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Not much to speak of weather wise across the area as high pressure continues to remain place. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high National Weather Service New Orleans LA 349 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Not much to speak of weather wise across the area as high pressure continues to remain place.
909 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A stalled low pressure system south of the Border will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight through Thursday with the best chance of rain over the mountains and deserts. The trough will move out Thursday night ahead of larger trough developing over the West this weekend. Upper low will dominate the West Coast this weekend with all ensemble models in agreement with occurrence but some disagreement in timing of the trough axis passage.
Temperatures Thursday will top out in the lower 90s, which will make for the 'coolest' day of the forecast period/week ahead. Temps will climb a couple of degrees for Friday, topping out in the lower/middle 90s. Sunshine will abound as high pressure aloft builds into the area from the Nrn GOMEX. The story of hot and dry will be a broken record for much of the extended, with the upper ridge dominating the weather pattern for the area for the weekend and much of the week ahead.
210 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Weak cold front crosses today. High pressure tonight. Warm front crosses Friday night. Cold front to the east of the area Thursday with bulk of moisture and precipitation associated with it as well. High pressure will then build into the area for Friday, with a southerly flow taking hold, and temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands.
356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Today through tonight: A subtropical ridge will maintain the status quo of hot, dry weather conditions through the forecast. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected again tonight with readings struggling to fall below 70 F.
Winds will turn out of a more southerly direction on its backside as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an incoming overnight cold front. First half of the weekend still looks primarily dry as a pronounced upper level low digs into the intermountain west with all sorts of winter.
Things will become much more active tomorrow as a trough begins to dig south into the high plains. A pattern change is forecast for late Thursday and Friday as an upper level low drops into the Pacific Northwest, ushering in a moist southwesterly flow aloft and a surface cold front for increasing chances for precipitation under an increasingly unstable airmass. Daily chances for precipitation continue as the low sits anchored over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds have remained breezy from the northwest associated with a surface cold front to the southeast. For Thursday, expect to see increasing cloud cover ahead of a low pressure system approaching from southern Saskatchewan/Alberta. Winds will become more southerly due to the associated warm front, which will help to keep highs in the 60s for most locations. The warm front will provide enough forcing for widespread shower activity, especially north of I-94. The center of low pressure will follow close to the international border into the night. Winds will become more westerly behind the passage of the cold front, but widespread cloud cover and winds will keep low temperatures more mild in the 40s to lower 50s. Cooler temps with northerly winds and lingering showers will be in place. cool Canadian high pressure settles over the area.
Lows tonight will continue to be very mild, ranging from the lower 70s in the northern ranchlands to upper 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. This trough of low pressure will increase PoPs, especially across the Gulf waters tonight and on Friday. As a result of rain chances and increased cloud cover, temperatures will be a degree or two cooler on Friday, especially for the eastern parts of the CWA. The surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten and increase winds slightly by Friday afternoon as deepening low pressure over the Rockies interacts with high pressure across the eastern Gulf.
High pressure is fcst to begin building back into the region heading into Fri. The lingering sfc front wl work back to the N as a warm front. S/SW winds on Fri wl result in drier and warmer conds. However, the bndry wl encounter the building ridge ovr the Mid-South.
Meanwhile, a cold front (mixed with outflow from the MCS) will tame the heat today across our northwest.
South of the front instability is increasing but the higher values are currently just south of the area where scattered storms are currently developing. As the low level jet increases, bands of showers and storms are expected to develop and track south along the front. Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. An upper level trough will move into and across the Plains Friday into Friday night.
420 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 The morning surface analysis reveals a cold front has almost made it to the Kentucky border in southern IL and IN. This will keep the afternoon highs in some question given the quick clearing we could see warmer highs. Given this went toward the warmer national blend of models. Tonight we will see mostly clear skies as high pressure quickly advances across the commonwealth, SRUS56 KSGX 260820 RR2SGX.
255 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 High pressure centered across Nebraska will keep pleasant fall weather in place across northeast Kansas today. Some concern for elevated convection continues into Friday morning, but the main attention will be on afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential as modest cold-air advection behind a northern Plains wave brings a cold front southeast into Kansas.
High pressure will build in and result in dry weather and lower humidity this afternoon through tonight.
Rain chances will persist into Fri evening (clearing from northwest to southeast) with high pressure then building in for Sat. The EC and GFS are in pretty good agreement with building broad upper level ridging across the region this weekend, holding into the start of the new work week. Bits of upper level energy are progged to periodically eject out of a trough over the west coast, spinning across the ridge, with suggestions of a sfc warm front lifting northward through the region Sun night. Where that cold front lays up then plays a pivotal role with where the higher pcpn chances/heavy rain threat would lie. Could get a bit cooler after that. before potential ridge building returns for the later half of the week.
Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible at the eastern edge of the forecast area from near Ponca City down toward Stillwater and Chandler and this will also be the area of the highest chances of rain. And the warmer temperatures will spread back north for Friday. The closed low over the southwest U.
High pressure keeps pleasant conditions in the forecast on Thursday with sunshine and highs near 70. High pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley overnight into Thursday providing for a pleasant fall day with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. In response to upper ridging building into the Ohio Valley during the weekend. temps will rise above normal once again on Mon/Tue with the upper ridge impacting the area. As the upper ridge is suppressed by midweek. This feature is also dragging a secondary cold front through with west to west-northwest winds increasing late morning and afternoon (gusts to 20 knots).
Due to the persistent cloud cover across northern Nebraska I have lowered the afternoon high temperatures a few degrees into the lower 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s across north central Nebraska to the lower 80s across portions of southwest Nebraska. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s across portions of southwest Nebraska.
246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Lingering low clouds over the area will keep temps cooler today before some breaks occur over the region this afternoon. Meanwhile much warmer air will spread across the area on Friday before a cold front surges southward into Kansas. Numerous storms look to develop along the cold front in the afternoon/evening with severe storms likely given very unstable airmass and strong wind shear aloft. Shear orientation is more parallel to the cold front therefore convective mode should quickly become linear on Friday.
354 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low northwest of Hudson Bay Canada with a trough of low pressure extending south into the upper midwest. West of this trough, high pressure was anchored off the coast of northern California. Low pressure was located over northern Baja California. At the surface, high pressure was located over northwestern Nebraska. A cold front extended from the eastern Great Lakes southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle. West of this trough, high pressure was anchored off the coast of northern California. Low pressure was located over northern Baja California. At the surface, high pressure was located over northwestern Nebraska. A cold front extended from the eastern Great Lakes southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure will build into the Central Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley region tonight for mostly clear and cool conditions. Core of the High pressure continues to drift across IA/IL through Thursday, providing mostly sunny skies for our area. Low pressure moves into ND/southwestern Ontario Canada Thursday night with a cold front trailing through MN into western IA. Cold front pushes through the area Friday for the likelihood of showers/scattered storms.
An active weather pattern continues into Friday as a strong upper level trough will begin to translate across the High Plains.
/issued 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Another hot day is in store for West Central Texas as we remain under the influence of the subtropical ridge, which extends westward into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Rain and thunderstorm chances are possible through the weekend Upper level troughing across the western CONUS will keep a southwesterly flow aloft across much of Texas. This strong trough will kick the subtropical high to the east and we should see temperatures begin to slowly drop throughout the week. At the surface, onshore flow will keep the moisture profile moist with dewpoints still remaining in the low to mid 60s.
Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows increasing moisture coming out of West Texas and southeast New Mexico pushing into the South Plains ahead of a short wave out ahead of the cutoff upper low in southern California. the cutoff upper low in the SW is expected to open and lift northeast with a pretty good vort max approaching Friday night. Our latest model runs including the NAM and GFS are much more aggressive at quickly bringing the moisture back into the South Plains and southern Panhandle Friday night where it interacts with the ejecting upper low to form thunderstorm activity.
Expect exceedingly low preicp chances and only partly cloudy skies through the day as high pressure currently centered around SE LA holds, and as a dry air mass (as evidenced by a PWAT of 1. High pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the area this morning, and these features will remain in place through Friday. This weekend low pressure will move across the plains which will push a cold front into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. The southerly flow ahead of the front and around the ridge parked over the southeast states will draw in moisture from the gulf.
Little change to the TAF forecast as a cold front approaches from the northwest later this afternoon.
414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 (Today and Tonight) Another hot day is in store for West Central Texas as we remain under the influence of the subtropical ridge, which extends westward into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Rain and thunderstorm chances are possible through the weekend Upper level troughing across the western CONUS will keep a southwesterly flow aloft across much of Texas. This strong trough will kick the subtropical high to the east and we should see temperatures begin to slowly drop throughout the week. At the surface, onshore flow will keep the moisture profile moist with dewpoints still remaining in the low to mid 60s.
453 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge over the Northern Rockies in advance of a strong wave over southern BC. At the surface, lee trof is deepening along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Dry west/southwest flow (downslope) will increase today in advance of aformentioned short wave and associated cold front, with temps pushing well into the 70s, with some 80s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front will enter our northwest 1/3rd of zones late this afternoon and quickly cross the rest of the CWFA this evening as short wave races eastward along the Canadian border.
Showers will exit this afternoon with a crossing cold front.
1059 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Water vapor imagery combined with analysis continues to show a rather large mid and upper level ridge situated over the entire Gulf of Mexico. Upstream of this feature an upper level trough remains pinned over southern California and northern Baja California. Downstream, an inverted trough associated with an upper level low sits over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Since sunrise, temperatures have rebounded into the lower 80s with dew points near 70.
However, our best chance of rain is still yet to come with the arrival of the cold front. Cold front is still back to our west and will move onto the Plateau around 18Z. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 93 71 / 30 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 65 91 70 / 30 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 65 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 59 86 65 / 30 10 10 0.
331 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 An upper level low over far Southeastern California will move east and away from the area tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to focus over the mountains and deserts near this low. The low will move east tonight with dry weather tonight through Friday. An upper level trough will dig down the U.
This activity is occurring along and ahead of a weak cold front that is just about to enter northwest Stewart County. A cold front will move in from the northwest today.
/issued 356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ A broad upper trough is over the Upper Midwest with a cutoff low over southern California and Arizona. The upper low will begin to become connected with the upper trough to the north later today. The upper low becomes a part of the upper trough to the north on Friday. Surface winds will become south to southwest pushing the higher dewpoints to the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.
Rain chances will persist into Fri evening (clearing from northwest to southeast) with high pressure then building in for Sat. The EC and GFS are in pretty good agreement with building broad upper level ridging across the region this weekend, holding into the start of the new work week. Bits of upper level energy are progged to periodically eject out of a trough over the west coast, spinning across the ridge, with suggestions of a sfc warm front lifting northward through the region Sun night. Where that cold front lays up then plays a pivotal role with where the higher pcpn chances/heavy rain threat would lie. Could get a bit cooler after that. before potential ridge building returns for the later half of the week. High clouds will gradually increase today as a shortwvae trough approaches the area from the Northern Plains.
The low pressure system responsible for the active shower and thunderstorm pattern will track north and east of our area by late Friday. The low pressure system responsible with active weather pattern the past several days will lift northward and east of the state by late Friday. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly from KTUS westward into this evening with isolated SHRA/TSRA possible overnight as the upper low opens up and slowly shifts eastward. An active weather pattern will continue into Friday as an upper level low produces showers and thunderstorms across the area. Less activity is expected Friday, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly across the higher terrain to the north and east of Tucson.
903 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 High pressure remains over the area producing pleasant weather once again this morning. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are reporting clear skies in most areas with temperatures in the low to mid 70's. Similar to yesterday, temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 90's with slightly cooler temps along the coastline. High pressure centered along the northern gulf coast will keep light winds and minimal seas over the gulf coast waters for the next several days.
A weak upper trough/weakness in the 500-mb height field expected over the WRN Gulf of Mexico/CWA today/tonight. Further, an upper ridge begins to build over the region from the east.
A passing shower or sprinkles is possible this morning with a crossing cold front.
A cold front will move through the region today. No major changes this update except for a few more winter storm watches hoisted (Bitterroot and Sapphire mountains and also the higher elevations of western Lemhi County). The area will continue to be influenced by general troughing aloft for the remainder of the week. Expect an increase in clouds this evening as a cold front approaches.
High pressure centered across Nebraska will keep pleasant fall weather in place across northeast Kansas today. Some concern for elevated convection continues into Friday morning, but the main attention will be on afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential as modest cold-air advection behind a northern Plains wave brings a cold front southeast into Kansas.
/EC/ Today through tonight: A subtropical ridge will maintain the status quo of hot, dry weather conditions through the forecast. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected again tonight with readings struggling to fall below 70 F.
As we transition into this afternoon, upper ridging dominant across SE LA into Coastal Texas will begin to edge slowly northward. The ridge will continue to strengthen to our south and east during the day Friday as an upper level system pivots across the Four Corners Region of the country. This should result in breezy southerly winds on Friday but continued above normal temperatures with afternoon highs ranging in the lower to middle 90s.
923 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A weak cold front will stall over or near the area today.
Weak ridge of high pressure across the local Atlc waters today will produce a light SW wind flow across the northern waters and a light East wind flow across the southern waters.
627 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Lingering low clouds over the area will keep temps cooler today before some breaks occur over the region this afternoon. Meanwhile much warmer air will spread across the area on Friday before a cold front surges southward into Kansas. Numerous storms look to develop along the cold front in the afternoon/evening with severe storms likely given very unstable airmass and strong wind shear aloft. Shear orientation is more parallel to the cold front therefore convective mode should quickly become linear on Friday.
249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 An upper low over southern California is drawing mid level moisture up from Mexico helping initiate showers and storms this afternoon in the Big Bend. This low will move northeast tomorrow increasing instability and spreading widely scattered storms northeast into the Permian Basin. Unfortunately the lack of cold fronts means temperatures will remain above normal and we will have to wait a bit longer for fall to feel like fall.
The low stratus will continue to erode off to the northeast. For tomorrow, a cold front will approach from the north and eventually bisect the state by the afternoon.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A subtropical ridge will maintain the status quo of hot, dry weather conditions through the forecast. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected again tonight with readings struggling to fall below 70 F.
A cold front will move through the forecast area today producing showers across the West Central and Boise Mountains in Idaho, and across Baker County in Oregon.
241 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A cold front will approach central Illinois late this week.
For Friday, zonal flow aloft will become more southwesterly as high pressure builds over the southeast US and trough out west begins to fill and eject northeastward. At the surface, high pressure along the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift east which will bring more of a southerly fetch of moisture and some clouds back into the area, mainly Deep East Texas. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s tomorrow with the warmest temperatures in our eastern zones.
The low pressure system responsible for the active shower and thunderstorm pattern will track north and east of our area by late Friday. Water vapor imagery depicts the current position of the upper low just northwest of Yuma. Models show a very gradual shift eastward later today as the low begins to fill in, finally vacating our area tomorrow evening as an open wave. However, the heat doesn't return as yet another deep trough digs down the western U.
The front won't bring in any dry or cool air due to the ridge sitting just to our south. The front actually looks like it will stall just along the TN/AL/GA line later this evening before lifting back northward tomorrow as the ridge pushes north. As the front lifts north tomorrow there may be enough forcing to set off a few showers and storms across the higher terrain of our eastern mountains but all other areas are expected to remain dry. High temps will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s as the upper heights rise with the building ridge. Models continue to be in general agreement in depicting the upper ridge building over our area and remaining for much of the period.