Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The afternoon water vapor continues to show the low pressure system diving southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region embedded in a larger trough across the Eastern U. A cutoff low pressure off of Baja California will be the culprit that provides the high clouds later today. A weak ridge can be seen in the synoptic pattern with the next weather system approaching the West Coast. Behind the front winds will switch around to the north and temperatures tomorrow and for the rest of the week will be about 10 degrees cooler, right around seasonal normals. Northwest flow will continue today through Tuesday as the large trough continues across the Eastern U.
An upper level trough is currently over the Northern Plains early this morning. The colder air mass will be over the area on Tuesday resulting in highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s even with plenty of sunshine.
The winds will stay light and variable into and through the night before turning more northwesterly Tuesday morning in the advance of a weak cold front. The cold front advances through the region near 18Z featuring a wind shift out of the northeast with no rain. Weak 500 mb ridging over central Mexico will ease closer to the BRO CWFA during the period. However, deep mid-level troughiness over the eastern half of the United States will help a cold front come through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. Even with the cold front passage, dry weather is anticipated with cloudiness limited to mainly high cirrus streaming overhead from the west.
More westerly 700mb winds will begin to warm up 700mb temperatures for Tuesday with GFS 700mb temperatures back above freezing across the CWFA.
A chilly pattern will continue through this work week with a strong ridge along the west coast and a trough over the east. At least a couple of disturbances will dig into the eastern trough with reinforcing shots of cold air, along with brief chances for light precipitation. Tonight into Tuesday, a fairly strong disturbance will dive into the longwave trough, bringing another shot of cold air along with some light precipitation.
Stratus/fog in the lower valleys causing MVFR/IFR conditions.
North-northeast winds finally are diminishing as the land areas heat up and the synoptic-scale ridge settles southward closer to the service area. A weak cold front will approach the service area on Tuesday, before any kind of significant air mass modification occurs. We will warm briefly to the lower 70s by midday, before a slowly falling temperature regime establishes once again.
124 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will likely keep the weather warm and dry through at least this weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Afternoon visible satellite shows scattered high clouds (associated with an upper low over Baja) continuing to stream into the region. The 12Z sounding from Miramar continues to show a very dry profile up through 500 mb and then the high level moisture shows up above that level. The sounding also shows weaker easterly winds in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, at only around 5-10 kt. Water vapor satellite shows an upper level ridge over the Great Basin and the aforementioned upper level low over Baja.
Currently, air temperatures in Keys island communities range from the upper 50s in the upper Keys to the lower 60s in the lower Keys. An area of high pressure will settle southward over the Florida Keys today and tonight. A weak cold front will approach and pass across Florida Keys coastal waters late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Tonight-Wed Night: All of the Great Plains will remain under a very strong NW regime throughout these periods with a deepening upper-deck trough situated over the eastern U. while a strong mid-upper ridge remains parked out west. trough undergoing pronounced cyclogenesis the ridge may get forced slightly west to the Pacific coast.
High pressure will lead to above normal daytime temperatures, relatively light winds and very dry conditions through much of this week. Current upper-air analysis reveals a high amplitude ridge positioned over the western United States with a cutoff low situated near Baja California.
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 /18Z TAFS/ Southwest winds of 6 to 12 knots will become north at 5 to 10 knots this evening, as a weak cold front moves through the area.
325 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 An alberta clipper will track just north of Pennsylvania tonight, with a trailing arctic cold front sweeping through the area Tuesday.
/Issued 307 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ Dormant weather pattern will continue for the seven day forecast period as a blocking ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS remains. As cold modified arctic air masses continue to barrel down the central and eastern CONUS, occassional cold fronts will clip the Panhandles. As is stands current model guidance suggest these will be weak cold fronts and therefore highs will fluctuate between mid to upper 50s on the cooler days and mid 60s to lower 70s on the warmer days.
1155 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today.
8am temps are slow to warm and still in the lower to upper 30s but should warm quickly in the next few hours. An Alberta clipper/short wave will dive down towards the area this afternoon bringing a reinforcing cold front through by midnight. Current forecast lows are in the middle 30s but will be tricky depending on the timing of the cold front and the overall cloud coverage. Temperatures should rise modestly from overnight lows in the low to mid 30s to the low 40s due to the strong cold air advection and mostly cloudy sky conditions. Clouds should clear on Tuesday night yielding a very cold night in the low to mid 20s (possibly teens over southern middle TN).
Highs will range from the lower 70's in the west to mid 60's in the east.
A cold front will move through Central Alabama late tonight with cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday. This AM, surface ridging across the Gulf Coast States will weaken as a low pressure system digs southward out of Manitoba toward the Upper Midwest and around toward Ohio and into New York by early Tuesday. today and tonight as the upper trough digs with a good northwest flow to help the front along. What we will notice today will be milder temperatures with another day of sunshine and more melting of remaining snowfall with a milder west to southwest wind in store for today and highs from the 50s to the lower 60s.
344 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Cold front moves across the area tonight. Strong upper trough brings cold air and snow showers Tuesday. A warm front lifted north across the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. A trailing cold front will begin to slide east overnight tonight. Areas where these streamers set up could pick up a small amount of accumulating snows across the lowlands. Upslope snow in the higher elevations will add to any snowfall accumulations. Overnight lows will in the lower to mid 30s. This is due to the arctic air filtering in behind the cold front. As the upper trough moves away, northwest flow again returns with models starting to agree on narrow corridors of higher RH stemming from Lake Michigan and reaching into the region.
Fortunately, this will be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.
226 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 An alberta clipper will track just north of Pennsylvania tonight, with a trailing arctic cold front sweeping through the area Tuesday.
A dry cold front was making its way southeast across Missouri this afternoon. The front will cross the lower Ohio Valley this evening, followed by increasing northwest winds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds. Winds will diminish as high pressure builds closer.
252 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with trof to the east and ridge to the west. At the surface, weak high pressure is located across central Montana, nosing into the western Dakotas. Eastern edge of upper ridge will shift into the area on Tuesday.
337 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Tonight through Tuesday: A surface cold front will begin to approach the ArkLaMiss tonight from the NW. Colder air will advect into region behind the front, resulting in much cooler temperatures for tomorrow. After experiencing highs today which were 10-12 degrees above average, highs tomorrow will be about 5 degrees below where they should be with a moderate north winds making it feel a bit cooler.
Of note, is a patch of freezing rain that will brush Cass and Crow Wing and maybe Aitkin counties this morning on the tongue of an elevated warm nose. An area of high pressure will move through the Northland Tuesday afternoon and evening. Warmer lows in the teens are forecast for central and north-central Minnesota because of expected increasing cloud cover from the west overnight.
Slightly cooler conditions still look on track this afternoon with temperatures generally in the upper 40s. The highest winds aloft will occur through 12Z. The flattening ridge results in the surface pressure gradient becoming more favorable for stronger winds in the KLVM and Big Timber areas on Tuesday.
An upper ridge remained over the intermountain west and a broad upper trough remained over the easter third of the country. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving southeast into MN and stronger winds were noted on the back side of this low across the northern plains. However winds are expected to shift to the northwest and begin gusting to near 40 MPH by the early afternoon as the low pressure system moves into IL and deepens. Think highs will range from the lower 50s near the NEB state line to near 60 over east central KS. Highs on Tuesday will be about 10 degrees cooler as the arctic air mass clips northeast KS.
High pressure will lead to above normal daytime temperatures, relatively light winds and very dry conditions through much of this week. The high pressure ridge/blocking pattern will continue to dominate northern Arizona weather for the foreseeable future. Numerical models don't handle blocking patterns well and tend to break the pattern down too early with little consistency between model runs.
318 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A ridge of high pressure is building into the area with winds taking a slow downward trend and we can also see some clearing across the James valley into eastern North Dakota. Guidance has this cloud cover moving back east as a low to mid level deck tonight into Tuesday as the high pressure continues to our south and we get back into westerly flow.
Strong but dry cold frontal passage tonight will provide a period of low level wind shear for a few hours overnight worthy of carrying WS conditions at KMCB, KBTR and KHDC prior to 10Z. There is a 120 kt jet max overhead from the base of the broad eastern trough. /issued 410 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ Deep longwave trough encompasses over half of the entire country, including the local forecast area. The base of this trough will lift slightly today which will allow for a brief day of warming. A strong cold front will accompany this feature, likely pushing through the area Tuesday morning.
1256 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the work week. However, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region will push another surge of very cold air into the region on Tuesday with blustery conditions and snow showers in the mountains. Looking at strong cold air advection behind front Tuesday with temperatures starting out steady or slightly warming in the west in the lower to mid 30s, with mid 40s east, then temperatures should crash into the 20s by late afternoon. There will be a burst of winds behind this front with gusts to advisory levels likely in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys, but coverage at the moment is borderline in terms of issuing headlines.
High pressure through mid week with a dry and warmer period.
This will usher a fairly weak and dry cold front through the region resulting in a bit of a drop in temps and dewpoints Tues afternoon and Tues Night. Significant CAA is pretty weak with this fropa and freezing/near freezing temps do not appear to be much of a threat throughout the short term. The NAM and GFS have a bit of a cooler bias versus the ECMWF numbers. The high based cld cover that is moving over the RGV from the closed 500 mb Baja Low to our west may be enough to hold down the daytime highs a bit and to limit the radiational cooling some at night. I'm going to opt towards the warmer side of guidance for highs and close to a model blend for lows.
357 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Deep trough over the eastern United States will lift out of the area tonight into tomorrow and high pressure will build into the area. A cold front will move through the area with no precipitation. highs dipping into the 50s and overnight lows back down around freezing.
935 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 With an upper level ridge of high pressure to our west, expect mostly sunny skies over the region for the next few days. strong ridge over the West Coast with north-northwest flow aloft over Montana. Valley inversions keep temperatures cooler in Southwest Montana with areas of morning fog. The exception will be the valleys of Southwest MT, mainly around Helena/West Yellowstone where some patchy freezing fog is possible before 17z. A ridge of high pressure will be over the region, resulting in dry conditions prevailing.
/issued 925 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017/ Temperatures have climbed above freezing across the area now, with the patchy to areas of frost melted. Updated the zones to remove the headlines, but rest of forecast is on track with highs expected to reach in to the lower to mid 60s, maybe a few upper 60s south.
Light westerly winds through today then a cold front will shift winds to the north late tonight/early Tuesday. WV imagery shows the west coast ridge remains highly-amplified, and is undercut by the cut-off low just off the coast of Baja. Long-range models bring a trough thru the central CONUS over the weekend, and hint at a weak front cooling things slightly for Sun, but are not in very good agreement on timing/strength attm. What they do agree on is rain chances remaining slim-to-none, as cold fronts prevent return flow from replenishing the very dry AMS in place.
High pressure will remain over our region most of the week. Daytime highs will be warmer than normal and nights will be seasonably cool. However, the majority of the smoke should remain in the higher levels of the atmospheric and not mix down to the surface. Interesting mix of temperatures this morning with locations that are calm seeing much cooler readings, while other spots have just enough wind to keep temperatures much higher. Synoptically the ridge of high pressure overhead will remain the dominate feature for the next several days with highs much warmer than normal while overnights will generally be cool due to light winds and mostly clear conditions. High temperatures will gradually cool through the week as the offshore flow weakens and the ridge axis shifts to our west.
258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area.
1009 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 Imagery shows large scale continuing stagnant pattern in place with amplified blocking ridge west of the Mississippi (axis centered roughly along the west coast), a deep trof east, and WY west of the inflection point but still under nwrly flow aloft. The SFC has strong high pressure still guarding most of the entire wrn CONUS and nearly centered under the the ridge aloft. A persistent ridge/trof pattern (west/east) will continue across the CONUS with a record high or two possible Tuesday (locations that can mix effectively with little or no snow on the ground).
We remain under northwest flow aloft between persistent ridging over the western US and persistent troughing over the eastern US.
For tonight, this will result in weak warm advection with low temperatures warmer than last night.
312 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area.
The orographic northwest flow will produce snow showers across much of the higher elevations with the west to northwest facing slopes of the far eastern Tennessee Mountains picking up up to 2 inches. For Tuesday night, breezy conditions and cold temperatures in the high elevations will produce dangerous wind chills.
1004 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure in the Plains associated with a pretty strong short wave trough seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Temperatures should reach the low 70s this afternoon making for a very nice day across the area. Cold front associated with the low pressure in the Plains should push through the area tonight into Tuesday morning with just a wind shift. The colder airmass will allow for high temperatures Tuesday in the low 60s. Overpeck Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected again today under west to southwest surface winds. This warmup will not last long as the next cold front moves through the area tonight/early tomorrow.
A dry cold front will move through on Tuesday morning with gusty northwest winds behind it. At the surface, winds will shift to the southwest by this afternoon which will bring warmer temperatures to the Tri-state region.
306 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A cold front currently analyzed across Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma and North Central Texas will continue moving south and east into the Four State Region this evening into the overnight hours. Still, undercut MOS temperatures a few degrees in a few locations to account for the dry airmass in place as guidance has been running too warm with overnight low temperatures lately Stayed near to slightly warmer than MOS temperatures concerning daytime highs on Tuesday as well.
403 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over southeast Canada moves east and offshore tonight. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will pass north of the area on Tuesday and drag a cold front through the region by Tuesday evening.
With an upper level ridge of high pressure to our west, expect mostly sunny skies over the region for the next few days. strong ridge over the West Coast with north-northwest flow aloft over Montana. Valley inversions keep temperatures cooler in Southwest Montana with areas of morning fog. The exception will be the valleys of Southwest MT, mainly around Helena/West Yellowstone where some patchy freezing fog is possible during the early morning hours. A ridge of high pressure will be over the region, resulting in dry conditions prevailing.
High pressure ridge axis extending into central Florida from the GOMEX will sag south across south Florida late tonight. As mentioned in the AM update, This is expected to produce cooler temperatures and patchy frost across the southern CWA with light westerly return flow north of the ridge slowing the nocturnal temp fall there. MOS guidance actually came in cooler with some L30s NE of the Lake. After another chilly start to the day, temperatures will moderate more quickly than today as WSW-W boundary later flow kicks in ahead of an approaching cold front, and becomes breezy by around noon.
Surface winds will trend generally westerly through the day, transitioning to northerly Tuesday morning in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage. An upper trough remains in place across the eastern 2/3 of the country this morning. A short wave is pushing southeast across the northern plains as a clipper systems moves around the back side of the trough.
The latest visible image and surface observations show low stratus with areas of freezing fog in portions of the Umpqua Basin, Illinois Valley and north end of the Rogue Valley including Grants Pass and Medford. The freezing fog and dense fog advisories remain in effect. High pressure will continue to produce relatively calm conditions through much of the week. A dissipating cold front will brush the outer portions of the coastal waters area late today, resulting in a slight increase in west swell through Tuesday afternoon.
302 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A strong cold front is currently making its way across the forecast area. The cold advection will help push tomorrow's high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.
Strong upper level high pressure over the Great Basin will extend southeastward across NM today, bringing another day of above normal temperatures to the state. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the northeastern plains late this afternoon and into central NM tonight. Slightly cooler air is expected behind the front Tuesday, but temperatures will still be well above normal.
915 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather this week. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle and upper 70s across the lower deserts.
209 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 A rather strong cold front and upper level trough are forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday.
252 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Cool morning across the Four State Region with surface ridging located just west of our region. As we go through the day, this ridge axis will move across our region which should result in a descent warmup.
Onshore flow will return by this weekend as the high pressure behind the front slides off to the east.
We can still expect temperatures to fall to the lower 40s overnight. Expect clear skies to be the rule in the near term as cool high pressure builds over the ArkLaMiss through Friday.
Cooler air retreats to our east, helping to produce a more mild day with some help from downslope warming. Moderating trend continues with low temperatures a few degrees warmer than tonight at most locations.
/issued 942 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/ 9 PM CST surface analysis showed a 1036mb pressure ridge centered over northern MN. /issued 228 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/ Tranquil weather will continue across the Mid-South through the early part of the weekend as high pressure will dominate the weather pattern. However first, a reinforcing cold front will move through the area tonight. In fact, there will be little, if any cloud cover with it, but it will keep temperatures cooler through Friday Night. The high will quickly shift east on Saturday, allowing winds to turn around to the south. As a result, expect highs to be a tad warmer with readings in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Highs have generally trended towards the lower spectrum of guidance.
Arctic high pressure over MN moves east into the ern Great Lakes and this should draft moisture northward. The SREF, NAM and guidance suggest fog potential on the wrn flank of the low level return moisture plume. The NAM shows dry air 800-700mb above the low level moisture and this should support the radiational cooling necessary for fog development. The temperature forecast today uses a blend of the RAP and HRRR models plus bias correction for highs in the lower 30s east to lower 50s west where partial clearing is expected.
Low temperatures in these areas will be in the lower to mid 50s, whereas calm or light northerly winds elsewhere will allow lows to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. KDRT is currently overcast VFR and with drier air in place in the low levels, should hold off on going IFR until around sunrise tomorrow morning.
Drier/cooler air will continue to filter into our area today.
1238 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 A strong cold front will cross tonight and bring scattered snow showers to the region. No major changes were needed for the early eve update as the strong cold front is poised to sweep the region through the evening. Dry weather is expected during this period with the passage of high pressure.