Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, areas under clear skies should see another round of freezing temperatures tonight with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Given the very dry low- levels and above-freezing temperatures, any precipitation should be very light and in the form of rain. It's worth noting that no impacts are expected with any sleet that may occur, as temperatures will remain above freezing at the surface.
VFR should return to the terminals between 09-14Z from north to south as drier air advects into the area on a breezy north to northeast wind flow in the wake of the cold front. Currently we have a cold front sitting just north of I-4.
Broad high pressure will drift across the Ohio Valley overnight. Look for an increase in high clouds Tuesday night as an upper trough approaches from Alberta.
A quite active weather day occurred today across east central FL, as a rather potent cold front sunk across the area. Increasing northerly winds will usher in drier and cooler air tonight, with temperatures north of I-4 falling to the upper 40s, but still remaining in the low 60s for the Treasure Coast due to persistent clouds. Cold front that brought strong to severe thunderstorms through the area this afternoon has now reached south FL, positioned between KSUA and KPBI.
Similar to last night, some hires guidance like the HRRR have trended warmer with overnight lows. High pressure will build in after 06z or so and as soon as the winds go light or calm, temperatures will drop sharply. High pressure builds into southwest Virginia and northeast TN towards daybreak tomorrow so expect light and variable winds at KTRI, while NNE winds develop at KTYS and KCHA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 45 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 42 25 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 22 42 25 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 37 20 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 10.
This should help us warm up tomorrow more than we saw today, but the lingering ice/snow pack will likely limit us from attaining some of the warmer model guidance.
Freezing fog and low clouds showed up in many locations, thinning out by late morning or early afternoon. A large area of low stratus and freezing fog over Flathead Lake crept northward and is impacting much of the Flathead Valley this afternoon with visibility reduction down to one quarter mile in places.
Rising temps through the overnight with temps peaking in the afternoon with breezy westerly winds helping boost values into the low 30s along and west of the valley and a bit cooler to the east.
337 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Two short wave troughs will affect the cwa for tonight through Tuesday night. On Tuesday, the tightening surface pressure gradient along with a deepening mixing layer with stronger winds off the surface will bring much warmer air down to the surface. For Tuesday night, the second short wave trough will drop in from the northwest bringing lift into the region. The thermal profile may result in some light freezing rain for a time with the chances right now to be on the light snow side.
354 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Summary: Bitterly cold temps will come to an end tomorrow as a warm front brings warmer temps to the area.
532 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Summary: Bitterly cold temps will come to an end tomorrow as a warm front brings warmer temps to the area.
145 PM PST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure will remain over the area for the next several days keeping the weather dry and temperatures at or near seasonal normals. Weak and dissipating upper trough is now moving slowly to the east over Central California with lots of cirrus clouds. With the weakening trough moving to the east, the area will have less cloud cover this evening and overnight and this will set the stage for another night of radiational cooling and fog development in the San Joaquin Valley. Deterministic and ensemble models keep a ridge of high pressure over the area for the next several days and of course this will keep the storm track away from Central California. Dry condtions will prevail everywhere and under the ridge, the inversion and fog/status scenario will continue on a nightly basis.
Our morning cloud cover associated with a trough passing to our north and what made for a nice sunrise this morning has pushed off to the east as upper level ridging builds in.
403 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Strong ridging surface and aloft was promoting mostly clear skies and milder temperatures this afternoon. Surface gradient between a trough over the high plains and ridge west of the Front Range was tight enough to generate gusty westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range. Arlington (ARL), closer to the ridge, was much lighter (5-15 mph).
/issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): Weak mid-level ridging occurs this evening over the CWA as showers from yesterday's cold front begin to taper off. As for Tuesday, a weak mid-level trough moves west-east across central Texas. However, this trough doesn't seem to phase our weather pattern. Tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer with a little bit more sunshine expected than today with highs in the mid 60s. With elevated winds and seas still occurring due to the passage of the cold front yesterday, a Rip Current Statement is still in effect through Tuesday evening.
424 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Surface analysis indicates a warm front extending from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this afternoon.
14 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1047 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ High pressure over the Ohio Valley will linger through the short term with northerly flow across the state. This will bring plenty of cooler and drier air advecting.
Breezy, westerly winds, and temperatures now in the 20s over most of central North Dakota will help the seasonally warm temperatures spread east today, with portions of eastern North Dakota potentially breaking the freezing mark. With temperatures possibly in the low 30s, these highs are still significantly cooler than record temperatures in the mid 40s. SREF/NAM also show max wetbulbs aloft below freezing during the 06Z to 18Z timeframe and, while the GFS is warmer aloft, as mentioned above, it is also dry. So leaning towards SREF/NAM p-types, expecting mostly snow with the possibility of some very patch freezing drizzle that should have minimal impacts.
340 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure centered over the region this morning will quickly move east today.
1020 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The 1040mb high pressure center that is sitting over the southern Plains this afternoon will shift southeastward tonight through tomorrow. Until the high moves eastward, winds will remain light and variable for much of the night. Cloud cover will increase from the south overnight, but not before low temperatures fall to around freezing. Despite the cloud cover, the overall depth of the moisture is shallow and the low levels look too dry for substantial rain chances at this time. Still, the amount of lift in this trough may be enough to overcome the dry air for a few isolated showers or brief sprinkles in the afternoon, mainly east of an Abilene to Sonora line.
Previous forecast idea of cooler overnight lows compared to guidance appears on track and update will continue the trend and lower min temps a few degrees most locations.
With CAA tapering and good insolation today, conditions will be slightly warmer and still seasonable. This will result in an increase in cloudiness over much of LA and southwest MS overnight, which will help hold overnight temps above freezing in those areas. While some of these clouds may try to precipitate overnight into early Wed morning, upper 20s/lower 30s dewpoint air in the low levels will prevent any measurable precipitation. Subfreezing conditions will still be attainable over the NE half of the area, where less cloud cover is anticipated.
These clouds are not expected to impact forecast morning lows in the upper 20s northeast to the lower 30s south. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday High pressure will remain in control through the short term period with northwest flow aloft. Lows will fall to near freezing for much of the area with mid and upper 20s likely north of I-20.
Valleys of Southwest and Central Montana will remain cooler than the surrounding plains due to strong temperature inversions over the valleys. Have expanded the High Wind Warning to include Toole and Eastern Pondera Counties where gusts exceeding 60 mph have been reported.
Warmest temps will be north and west of Tulsa closer to the low level thermal ridge axis across KS. Gusty winds and the lowest afternoon humidity values will also be located there, raising fire weather concerns.
234 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Key Takeaways: A stout ridge has developed over the Rockies and northwest flow aloft has taken shape over the Central Plains.
Slight downsloping direction will lead to warmer temps, especially across the north where highs will climb into the 60s. Farther south, a mid-level trough will move east across Texas today producing some cloud cover across the south, but any precip is expected to remain south of the area. These clouds could keep temps in the Red River valley a few degrees cooler than they would be otherwise.
Seasonably strong north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a longwave trough encompassing much of eastern North America.
144 AM MST Tue Jan 11 2022 08z surface analysis had warm front from southern SK to eastern KS.
Similar to last night, some hires guidance like the HRRR have trended warmer with overnight lows. High pressure will build in after 06z or so and as soon as the winds go light or calm, temperatures will drop sharply. High pressure will result in clear conditions, light winds, and VFR conditions at all sites. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 27 52 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 25 50 32 48 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 25 50 30 48 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 20 47 29 44 / 0 0 0 10 20.
Valleys of Southwest and Central Montana will remain cooler than the surrounding plains due to strong temperature inversions over the valleys. Have expanded the High Wind Warning to include Toole and Eastern Pondera Counties where gusts exceeding 60 mph have been reported. 432 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 (11/00Z TAF period) Montana will remain under a ridge of high pressure with variable mid- and high-level clouds moving over the region for widespread VFR conditions through Tuesday evening.
Currently, high pressure remains over the Mid-South. The high will begin shifting east tonight. Expect highs to be maybe just a tad warmer today than yesterday with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
1146 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure is located over northeast Texas and clear skies are across the region.
High pressure with clear sky and cool temperatures.
355 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 A cold front over the southern part of the Florida peninsula will continue to shift southward as high pressure ushers in a cooler and drier air mass.
248 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the Northern Plains today, bringing much above average temperatures, along with breezy westerly winds.
The afternoon started with a remnant cloud line over the lower Keys which drifted over the Hawk Channel and produced at least two waterspouts. This precipitation is actually still well ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly gentle north to northeast breezes are occurring this evening over the waters along and east of the Seven Mile Bridge. This is ahead of a cold front that is slowly trekking south across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.
107 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 Dry and cold high pressure building into the region will persist through the middle of the week.
1253 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight and move off to the east on Tuesday.
1101 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Northwest flow/lake enhanced snow showers will continue tonight with some accumulation expected north of I-80 and on the higher ridges. The near term period will be dominated by northwest flow/cold advection, with a 850mb thermal trough crossing the region tonight. Upslope flow will also provide likely more modest accumulation along the ridges east of Pittsburgh. Accumulation expectations from here are generally around an inch in the ridges, perhaps up to 2 on the higher peaks. The last of the lake-effect snow showers will end Tuesday morning as RH levels in the low levels drop with the departure of the coldest 850mb temperatures.
Temperatures expected down into the 30s with freezing temps around Alexandria.
Winds will become light/variable to calm during the overnight period with high pressure over the region. But the high will start to shift eastward on Tuesday, and easterly and eventually southerly surface winds will return by late morning Tuesday.
1030 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Sunny skies and near normal temperatures were the rule across the region this afternoon beneath a ridge of high pressure over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A ridge reforms to the West Tuesday night with scattered mid and high clouds spreading over the forecast area during the night. Low temperatures tonight will be near or a little warmer than those experienced last night thanks in large part to partial cloud cover.
1026 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Seasonably strong north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a longwave trough encompassing much of eastern North America.
1022 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Surface analysis indicates a warm front extending from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this afternoon.
934 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Strong ridging surface and aloft was promoting mostly clear skies and milder temperatures this afternoon. Surface gradient between a trough over the high plains and ridge west of the Front Range was tight enough to generate gusty westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range. Arlington (ARL), closer to the ridge, was much lighter (5-15 mph).
1026 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Relatively quiet in the short term as high pressure remains across the western US.
High temperatures will likely remain in the upper 40s across the northern counties and in the low 50s elsewhere.
East-northeasterly winds behind a weak closed low that passed over southern Arizona earlier today will persist into Tuesday.
1031 PM PST Mon Jan 10 2022 Bands of light snow and freezing rain will develop over the Inland Northwest Tuesday.
High pressure building across the region with clear skies across Colorado. We don't see much change in temperatures through this period, with the strong inversions holding firm in the lower elevations of Grand County/Upper Colorado River Basin.
High pressure is all over the four state area with a 1035mb contour running all along I-20 and a few 1036mb readings for the highest in the Natural State. Otherwise, our skies tonight will be slowly clearing toward daybreak south of I-20 and overnight lows will be warmer in the upper 30s. Elsewhere to the north and east, skies will be clear to fair with more patchy frost likely with air temps down in the lower to middle 30s. We can expect partly cloudy skies and southerly winds picking up on Wednesday that will boost temps back above average in the lower 60s.
Aloft, upper troughing along the east coast, with ridging along the west coast. High pressure will shift eastward today and Wednesday. NBM numbers may be a bit on the high side for lows tonight, but if mid and high level clouds increase before sunrise, that may be the proper trend.
At the surface, elongated high pressure will remain stretched across the East Coast and into the Southeast, helping to maintain a light to moderate northerly flow across Deep South Texas through the short term period. With this northerly flow and increased cloud cover, models have been trending slightly cooler through the period and as such, temperatures have been adjusted down slightly for this forecast package. Highs will reach the lower to mid 60s today, lows dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight, then highs will reach the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday.
High pressure has built into the region and things will stay dry through the short term.
Temps at 3 AM over the plains varied from the 30s to around 40F along the immediate mtns/plains interface, and then cooled into the U10s across the lower Ark Rvr Valley. Although this boundary will move across, not much in the way of cooler air associated with it and temps will actually warm as compared to yesterdays max temps. Min temps tonight will be similar to this mornings lows, or maybe a degree or two warmer.
520 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area through the period. Today Through Wednesday Night The pattern with an upper ridge over the west and an upper trough over the east will continue to bring a northwest flow over Arkansas through Wednesday. Lows tonight Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 30s.
With weak mixing today beneath a steep inversion, surface temps won't match the extent of warming aloft, but high temps will be much warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from near 20 in north-central WI to the 30s for south and western areas.
They will briefly flatten the ridge before moving over the eastern CONUS. Tomorrow the ridge will amplify over the West Coast causing weak warm advection across our region therefore highs increase by a few degrees.
High pressure will provide a benign weather pattern with light winds and dry conditions to the area through midweek.
High temperatures will likely remain in the upper 40s across the northern counties and in the low 50s elsewhere. There will be a shift from the drier easterly flow to more of a southwesterly flow as the trough moves through, which will help moderate our temperatures slightly warmer for Wednesday compared to today, but highs tomorrow will still likely remain in the mid 50s across Central AL.
Despite the potential for some sleet, impacts will be nil as surface temperature remain above freezing. Extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side today, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 50s. Decreasing clouds, coupled with a dry airmass and light winds, will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
412 AM MST Tue Jan 11 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper low centered near KHMN at 11Z will continue to track eastward, exiting NM by 18Z with diminishing clouds and isold light showers.
A surface trof of low pressure is forecast to slide southeastward across KGUY and KDHT late this evening with winds becoming light northwest.
An area of low pressure will cross the Northern Plains today, bringing much above average temperatures, along with breezy westerly winds. Slightly cooler air moves into the area on Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 20s, in western MN, to the upper 40s, in central South Dakota.
Flow backs toward northerly later this morning as high pressure shifts east across the lower Great Lakes.
High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday keeping the weather dry and temperatures at or near seasonal normals.
High pressure will shift into the Ohio Valley setting off southerly flow and a surge of warm air advection. By Wednesday afternoon we will see temperatures peak closer to normal in the low to mid 30s.
With high pressure to the north and a coastal trough beginning to set up just offshore, light to moderate northerly winds will persist through the period. At the surface, elongated high pressure will remain stretched across the East Coast and into the Southeast, helping to maintain a light to moderate northerly flow across Deep South Texas through the short term period. With this northerly flow and increased cloud cover, models have been trending slightly cooler through the period and as such, temperatures have been adjusted down slightly for this forecast package. Highs will reach the lower to mid 60s today, lows dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight, then highs will reach the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday.
313 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Light rain showers were attempting to develop across the southern South Plains early this morning as a compact upper low was crossing the Pecos. Very dry air in the lowest 5000 feet of the atmosphere was significantly decreasing the efficiency of these showers. This upper low will cross the southern South Plains midday then pull east with dry northwest flow aloft to follow. Today will see near normal or slightly warmer than normal temperatures. RMcQueen An upper-level ridge will begin to push east across the Desert Southwest Wednesday, as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS slowly moves east. Upper heights over our region will start to increase, as the ridge to our west moves closer to the area, resulting in temperatures increasing going into the middle and latter part of the week.
Warmer air spreads east as warm front slides across the region this morning, bringing a wind shift from southerly to westerly this morning.
930 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 Arctic high pressure builds into the region today before pushing offshore on Wednesday.
At 2 am, many locations are in the 30s with some ridge tops in the lower 40s, meanwhile, some valley locations are still in the teens mainly in the Missouri River Valley east of Fort Peck Lake.
Early Morning into the rest of Today: Nighttime satellite shows a bit of anti-cyclonic movement over NorCal with moderate high pressure ridging aloft. Current temperatures as of 3 am were running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and overnight lows right before sunrise should range upper 30s to mid 40s for much of the region. That will translate to peak heat this afternoon warming into the low 60s to low 70s for much of our CWA.
529 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 H5 pattern tonight has a broad trough of low pressure extending from Quebec south southwest into the Mid Atlantic states. West of this trough, broad northwesterly flow extended west toward the central and northern Rockies. A ridge was present from Wyoming north into western Saskatchewan. At the surface, weak low pressure was present over northwestern South Dakota. With good agreement noted between the MET and MAV guidance today, went ahead and utilized a blend for the high temp forecast. Highs today will generally be in the lower to middle 50s with readings around 50 in SW Nebraska and the SE Nebraska Panhandle. This will allow temps to reach well into the lower to middle 50s for Wednesday for all locations as snow cover is expected to be gone by Wednesday.
Satellite imagery shows extensive high clouds continuing to spill into NorCal through the ridge along the West Coast.
Owed to the overall troughiness, and with forecast soundings indicative of plenty of low-level moisture, near-to or slightly above normal rain chances seems appropriate for the next several days. However, with the lack of any large-scale forcing for ascent (rather, mere lack of ridging) and given the season, have continued to hedge the forecast slightly below all available MOS guidance.
303 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 H5 pattern tonight has a broad trough of low pressure extending from Quebec south southwest into the Mid Atlantic states. West of this trough, broad northwesterly flow extended west toward the central and northern Rockies. A ridge was present from Wyoming north into western Saskatchewan. At the surface, weak low pressure was present over northwestern South Dakota. With good agreement noted between the MET and MAV guidance today, went ahead and utilized a blend for the high temp forecast. Highs today will generally be in the lower to middle 50s with readings around 50 in SW Nebraska and the SE Nebraska Panhandle. This will allow temps to reach well into the lower to middle 50s for Wednesday for all locations as snow cover is expected to be gone by Wednesday.
916 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure centered over the region this morning will quickly move east today.
A warm front will move through the area today, however, most of not the bulk of the precipitation will stay north of our area. There's good agreement a weak front will push into the area Wednesday evening with an upper trough to follow Wednesday night.