Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ West- southwesterly upper level flow associated with an upper low over the Baja of California was streaming mid and high level clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. This cloud cover is expected to decrease from north to south during the day today as the upper level flow becomes more northwesterly in response to a closed low currently located over the northern part of the Great Lakes Region dropping southward toward the Ohio River Valley. These conditions should help afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday for most locations.
High pressure will continue the warming trend under light wind. This may be summer's last hurrah with some afternoon highs in the low 80s in the Snake River plain. The upper level ridge gets broken down by a trough approaching from the south on Wed night. The trough crosses through from south to north, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area, during the day on Thu. Another trough arrives Mon afternoon/Tue night, continuing precipitation and the colder than normal temperatures, with highs mainly in the 50s.
The season's are changing and we are seeing the typical response to cold frontal passages in the cool season which results in some post frontal low level moisture being condensed into low clouds and some fog.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a weak, transitory upper ridge today, between yesterday's system and the next system expected Tuesday. With plenty of sunshine and warmer air aloft, should see warmer high temps this afternoon. Some locations will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer. Instability will increase over our eastern zones in the afternoon due to the approach of the main trough axis.
These waves are originating from a weak upper level low parked over the lower MS Valley. This will allow for increasing moisture and the stalled boundary across SC today to lift back north/northeastward as a warm front. A few showers may develop along the warm front as it slowly lifts north/northeastward into/through the area. While the low level atmosphere will be characterized as slight to moderately unstable, bulk shear relatively weak. If skies become/remain overcast, max temps 3-4 degrees cooler may be realized. The subtropical ridge and Bermuda will maintain a presence over the Southeast through late week.
252 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds. The low pressure system that brought gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the area over the weekend has moved east into Montana. As the low continues to shift east across the northern plains, a second low will move to near Vancouver by Tuesday. This low will be weaker and will remain farther north, thus will no impact on central California. The main weather feature that will affect our weather is the ridge of high pressure that extends from Texas and across Mexico.
The low pressure system is causing wrap around precipitation across west central Montana this morning. Snow levels have fallen to around 6500-7000 feet this morning allowing the higher peaks to receive several inches of new snow last night. The low pressure system will continue to move off to the east today causing the wrap around moisture to shift towards central Montana later this morning into the afternoon.
349 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. High pressure in control.
524 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Periodic thicker mid cloud will continue to funnel through today as a warm frontal boundary works toward the region. Convectively enhanced disturbance embedded within the northern periphery of the building ridge will traverse the state today. Depending on extent of cloud debris, deeper mixing could yield a few warmer readings in the upper 80s. Southerly gradient will persist into midweek as the closed low over the Intermountain West this morning lifts north and east.
303 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Convectively enhanced disturbance embedded within the northern periphery of the building ridge will traverse the state today. Depending on extent of cloud debris, deeper mixing could yield a few warmer readings in the upper 80s. Southerly gradient will persist into midweek as the closed low over the Intermountain West this morning lifts north and east.
337 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will be centered over far West Texas, resulting in mainly hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Upper level ridge to remain in control, centered near El Paso and southern New Mexico.
Only a few isolated showers were continuing across portions of middle Tennessee with temps remaining nearly steady in the lower 70s. With the trough/boundary remaining near the area through the afternoon, will continue with higher chance pops.
700 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas by midweek and persist through the end of the work week. Mid-level heights rise today as subtropical high pressure strengthens. The overall risk for severe weather looks a bit less than previous days with warmer mid-level temperatures and a bit less available DCAPE.
Normal max temps are in the high 90s to around 100 in the Valley for mid July. The warming will be the result of high pressure over the Srn portion of the USA expanding Nwd and deflecting the storm track well to the N of Norcal for the next several days. Low pressure developing off the BC coast and moving Swd along the Pac NW coast is forecast to give Norcal cooler temps this coming weekend.
High pressure centered over the eastern Great lakes and eastern Ohio will continue to bring dry weather through tonight as it drifts to the east. It will become hotter and more humid as a southerly flow increases on the back side of this high.
One exception may be northern Kansas where we can not rule out an elevated thunderstorm during the late evening/overnight hours north of the front as the low level jet ramps up. with trofs over the NW and NE. A few very isolated tstms should develop over the High Plains. some models suggest that activity could linger thru the night and head E and/or new activity fires at the nose of the low- lvl jet. Once the developing low amplitude trof moves E Thu night. WNW flow will prevail until the mean ridge moves over the Plains Sat.
in the low to middle 70s under partly cloudy skies. a weak ridge is in place across the Eastern half of the Nation. with a shallow trough over the Northern Rockies. Beneath the weak ridge over the East. High temperatures should be slightly warmer tomorrow as heights rise and we expect less cloud cover. Temperatures should be near normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to middle 70s.
428 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak warm front was positioned just to our southwest in TN early this morning. The highest pop is on Tuesday, once the humid low level air mass is fully in place and the upper level system arrives. The upper ridge will move east by midweek with moisture/humidity returning for the rest of the week.
119 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. High pressure in control.
328 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows 996mb low over South Dakota with warm front extending southeastward into the Lower Ohio River Valley. Further south, quiet weather is expected across central Illinois despite the advancing warm front. Will be a warmer and more humid day, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s. As the South Dakota low tracks northeastward into Canada, it will gradually pull a cold front toward Illinois.
Tranquil boating conditions with light winds and slight seas will continue over the Gulf waters the rest of tonight as high pressure remains in control.
608 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Tranquil conditions prevail early this morning across the forecast area as high pressure remains the main player in our local weather today. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region.
1202 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Warm front over western Illinois looks to be nearly stationary at this time. Dewpoints have jumped up into the low to mid 70s along and west of the Mississippi this afternoon and temperatures are a little warmer than previously forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s.
128 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 60s.
A cooler but dry airmass will settle into the area today.
An upper level shear axis currently draped across East and Southeast TX, is progged to shift east today while the southern extent of the axis shifts west as an inverted trough wave.
As a weak H5 trough crosses the region today the front is forecast to lift back to the northeast as a warm front.
The Atlantic ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather features the past few days has begun its trek northward. This has allowed winds to gain a more southeasterly component and surge a bit this morning, thanks to an increasing pressure gradient along the southwestern flank of the aforementioned ridge. Model guidance has hinted at a drier atmosphere during the day on Tuesday with the close proximity to the deep layered ridging building across South Florida, so have elected to drop precipitation chances to slight for that period. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the lower 90's and overnight lows in the lower 80's.
High pressure begins to reassert itself over the region tomorrow to cause high temperatures tomorrow to be 1-2 degrees warmer than they were today. High pressure is strengthening over the area, and the weak mid-level shear axis can be seen on satellite loops to be shifting SE to the TX coast. The dry Nly flow will probably drop dewpoints and min temps a few degrees tonight over western and northern counties, Monday will see the south winds begin to increase again as the upper ridge flattens back over the Srn Plains. Meanwhile cooler temps and humidity may not be felt at all over areas along and east of I-35. Some fire weather impacts may be felt in the next two days beneath the shifting upper ridge.
615 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the area will move slowly east through Tuesday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
strongest convection is expected to continue to push on an easterly path, though further west a variety of upper waves lifting ahead of approaching upper low continue to produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms. Cold front pushes through with windy conditions developing mainly over southwestern North Dakota. Upper low lifts along the international border overnight with chances for precipitation continuing, mainly over northern locations. Upper low continues to meander along the southern prairie provinces on Tuesday bringing continued precipitation chances to the area, with the greatest chances over northern locations.
346 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Upper level low across the southeast states will continue to provide unsettled weather for central Alabama over the next day or so. No reason to expect otherwise today, although the area most likely to be affected should shift a bit north with the drifting motion of the upper low. The arrival of the big upper level ridge that the models were predicting has been pushed back a bit, and is now forecast to establish next Monday/Tuesday. I'm beginning to wonder if this monster ridge is this summer's analog to the "GFS day 10 snowstorm" we frequently see in the winter. Some fog and low clouds are a possibility through the morning with amount of moisture in place across the lower levels.
Trailing cold front just pushing into northern Colorado at this time. This will bring cooler conditions today with highs in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. Even though it will be cooler today, expect relative humidities to fall into the teens this afternoon. The cold air advection behind the cold front will allow for good mixing, which should result in gust west winds this afternoon. Plan on upgrading the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning due to the low relative humidity and gusty winds.
There will be a zonal flow pattern across the northern United States will several short wave trofs passing to the north of Alabama. Alabama will be in a relative weakness in the upper height pattern thanks to upper highs centered off the Florida coast and another one over the Southern Plains States. The models do indicate the upper high over Texas expanding eastward by the weekend, so rain chances could lessen with highs climbing into the middle 90s. Some fog and low clouds are a possibility through the morning with amount of moisture in place across the lower levels.
In fact, locally heavy rainfall be possible as wrap around moisture pushes across the area tracking with the low pressure system.
225 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 After a cool morning, high pressure will result in dry conditions and warmer temperatures today and Tuesday.
351 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 A low pressure system moving inland through the Pacific Northwest will maintain high temperatures slightly below average through Tuesday.
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2016 High pressure will move across the region today before moving off the coast Tuesday.
Short-term pattern will feature an upper ridge axis making its way from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, while upper trofiness lingers across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Main challenge will be the northward extent of precip chances as the weak trof to our south and west opens up and interacts with moisture pooled along a decaying surface boundary over the Tennessee Valley. As ridging continues to weaken, expect precip coverage to increase and spread farther north on Tuesday, putting the entire CWA into the chance range, but with the highest POPs in south-central and east- central Kentucky. Temps through the period will run on the high side of normal, and more typical summertime humidity will gradually return.
Slight increase in llvl moisture expected during the second half of the week into the weekend, but there will also some additional subsidence to overcome for precip development as upper ridge builds back in and to the north.
An upper low will remain well to the north off the British Columbia coast today. This pattern is expected to bring warmer and mainly dry weather to inland areas today with mild conditions and areas of low clouds along the coast.
413 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 The latest surface analysis across the southeast states shows high pressure ridge axis suppressed well to the south over the Florida peninsula allowing a continued SW flow regime over the local area.
Midlevel trough stretched overhead along the Texas coast is kicking off elevated convection. Despite the trough aloft, with heights at H5 remaining around 588-590 Dm, warm temperatures will remain during the short term. As the trough weakens and pushes farther south, shifted silent 10% POPs south as well.
Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will move back over the forecast area late tonight. The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with a few more clouds expected. The surface boundary shifts further to the north into NC/VA on Tuesday with upper ridging dominant over the southeastern states.
Mountain showers return Tuesday with the next weak cold front passage.
On the synoptic scale the mature low over southern Manitoba Tuesday night will lift northeast towards Hudson Bay and weaken, partially due to a mid-level ridge over the lower Great Lakes into New England.
Weak troughing aloft over the region. While afternoon convection will provide some relief from the heat, highs are still progged to top out in the low and middle 90s each day. Lows both tonight and Tuesday night will fall into the low and middle 70s.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FLOW AROUND THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO PULL A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST AS WELL.
534 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak trough continues to be in place across the region. On Tuesday, it looks like the majority of the region should stay dry, as the upper trough begins to lift out.
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Severe threat continues over portions of the area, with the new focus starting to lean towards the south with the low level jet increasing. Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern Montana and southwest North Dakota.
333 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 06Z surface data has a warm front running from the Tennessee Valley northwest through Iowa and into eastern South Dakota.
310 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Current surface map places cold front from central South Dakota in the Nebraska panhandle. Water vapor imagery shows upper low over Montana. For today, upper low lifts into southern Saskatchewan.
As of early this morning, water vapor imagery showed impressive upper low centered over Harlowton. Pops increase across western areas this morning, gradually spreading east through the day as the trowal associated with the upper low wraps precipitation back into the area. The upper low will gradually lift north and east through the day, along with the better forcing. Precip chances decrease this evening as the low lifts out of the area. Westerly winds will gradually increase through the day as the upper low stacks over northeast Montana tightening the pressure gradient across the area.
Brief ridging will cross the region today with some light drizzle being wrung out at times from the low clouds. Another upper trough will swing across the area Tuesday and bring a period of rain mainly during the afternoon and evening from Albany northward. Then expect a couple days of fine weather before another upper low brushes across the area over the weekend.
424 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Subtropical ridge will dominate through the week. Dominating deep-layer subtropical ridge has changed little overnight and will change little through the short term. Expansive high pressure that has dominated the regions weather this July will continue, though expand northward into much of the southeastern United States. High pressure will continue to be the main weather influencer into the weekend, keeping prevailing winds out of the east-southeast at generally 15 knots or less and seas below 3 feet.
343 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 After a cool morning, high pressure will result in dry conditions and warmer temperatures today and Tuesday.
416 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure continues today. Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week. with the high pressure shifting east today and some increase in low level moisture.
A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will move across the area today while low level flow will remain onshore. A trough of low pressure aloft and an associated front will move across the region on Tuesday giving an increasing threat of showers.
104 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
a weakness in the ridge/shear axis will remain across the cwfa for much of the period. At the surface, a low pressure trough should remain situated across northern/northeast GA through the period. With the combination of the shear axis in the mid level and the trough at the surface, convection should tend to focus along these features for much of the week.
527 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature for this 7 day fcst period with above normal to well above normal temperatures expected.
300 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the area will move slowly east through Tuesday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
407 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An upper ridge will remain the dominant feature over our area for most of the forecast period.
639 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure continues today. Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week. with the high pressure shifting east today and some increase in low level moisture.
with much of the region having been stabilized in wake of earlier convection/numerous resultant outflow bndrys beneath the mid/upper level trough axis extending from Cntrl AR SW into E TX. Still seeing extensive convective debris though over Scntrl AR/much of N LA/extreme Ern TX closer to the H500 trough axis. which may be slow to thin out overnight as this trough lingers through Monday morning before slowly drifting E for the afternoon. Can/t quite rule out isolated convection redeveloping late near/E of the trough itself late.
111 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 60s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water-vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough/shear axis moving off the lower Texas coast with mid-level dry air over much of Texas this morning.
These waves are originating from a weak upper level low parked over the lower MS Valley. This will allow for increasing moisture and the stalled boundary across SC today to lift back north/northeastward as a warm front. A few showers may develop along the warm front as it slowly lifts north/northeastward into/through the area. While the low level atmosphere will be characterized as slight to moderately unstable, bulk shear relatively weak. If skies become/remain overcast, max temps 3-4 degrees cooler may be realized.
221 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Strong upper system moving through the northern High Plains will break down the ridge with surface cold front moving through early Monday morning. Surface cold front will be located along the southeast fringe of the forecast area at peak heating Monday afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s behind the front and upper 90s ahead of it. Active weather is anticipated at the end of the work week with west/northwest flow aloft, followed by heights rising during the weekend bringing drier and warmer conditions.
Short-term period will feature an upper ridge axis making its way from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, while upper trofiness lingers across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Main challenge will be the northward extent of precip chances as the weak trof to our south and west opens up and interacts with moisture pooled along a decaying surface boundary over the Tennessee Valley. As ridging continues to weaken, expect precip coverage to increase and spread farther north on Tuesday, putting the entire CWA into the chance range, but with the highest POPs in south-central and east- central Kentucky. Temps through the period will run on the high side of normal, and more typical summertime humidity will gradually return.