Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
521 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place across the Nation with small amplitude troughs noted moving east through it. This trend looks to continue this coming work week as no large scale blocking is noted or forecast to develop any time soon. This will keep temperatures wandering across a seasonally normal range over the coming week with a couple of chances for precipitation based on the timing of specific troughs move across the Plains States. As the trough moves farther east today it will allow a bit drier air to move in, but with the cloud cover and north winds lingering well into the day expect temperatures to remain a bit cool.
However, cancelled the freezing fog advisory for Hill and Blaine Counties since widespread freezing fog is no longer present. Also reduced the coverage of freezing fog to reflect latest observations. The West Yellowstone and Raynolds Pass areas have the best probability of experiencing lingering, patchy freezing fog through about 9 AM this morning. Jaszka Areas of fog and freezing fog will affect the Hi-Line and some of the valleys of Southwest Montana this morning. However, building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to much of the forecast area today with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages. Areas of freezing fog will continue to impact the Hi-Line, including the KHVR terminal, and portions of Southwest Montana through at least mid-morning with LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditons. Areas of fog/freezing fog could develop again after 03Z Monday.
Ceilings will eventually become MVFR in the wake of a southward moving cold front later today and especially this evening into the overnight hours. There could be some drizzle with this lowering cloud cover late tonight. Upper ridging expanding nwd into se TX, inducing a warming trend with highs back into the 70s by mid week. Short waves around the topside of this ridge will interact with increasing instability with a few tstms possible to brush northern portions of area late Wed into early Thu as upper trough moves east across midwest. A stronger cold front movg across area early this wknd will bring cooler and drier conditions for the remainder of the upcoming wknd.
320 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 With dry conditions and warming temperatures through the short term period, the primary concern in the near term is timing the dissipation of fog across the eastern sections of the forecast area this morning as high pressure moves into the region.
There have been a few light returns across the northeast part of the CWA across southwest Georgia and thus those areas could see patchy drizzle over the next hour or two before the lower clouds erode. In the upper levels a weak trough will be over the Southeast today. Low level flow will remain easterly as high pressure moves into the Atlantic (from the Northeast U. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s in the Florida counties.
533 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 As of 11Z cold front has moved through all sites with winds out of the north-northeast. A cold front is working its way through the forecast area this morning with very low stratus and some fog trailing it by a narrow distance.
338 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas. Warm and dry conditions expected early this week with flat upper ridge overhead.
454 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 With dry conditions and warming temperatures through the short term period, the primary concern in the near term is timing the dissipation of fog across the eastern sections of the forecast area this morning as high pressure moves into the region.
Dense fog is confined to areas ahead of a cold front that has currently moved through HOB and will be moving through the remaining TAF sites shortly, therefore expect visibilities to improve shortly though CIGs will remain near airport mins of OVC002-004. In the near term, a cold front will cross the area today, but most of the cold air will stay well away from us. This front will also not clear out the low level moisture as is usually the case with fronts this time of year. High temperatures will be cooler the next couple of days, but that will mostly be due to low clouds sticking around. Upper ridging builds in midweek as low level moisture begins to mix out.
Areas of fog and freezing fog will affect the Hi-Line and some of the valleys of Southwest Montana this morning. However, building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to much of the forecast area today with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages.
1030 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Latest RAP40 analysis shows a deep H100-H70 anticyclone centered over the Carolinas with its axis extending SW into the FL Big Bend area, a stalled frontal boundary draped over the south FL Peninsula extending from just south of Tampa Bay to Stuart, and high mean RH values thru the H100-H70 lyr over much of the central peninsula. Lcl JAX/MIA pgrad has slackened slightly to btwn 6-7MB, and will continue to do so thru the day as the ridge axis over the SE CONUS steadily weakens. Hi pres ridge over the Mid Atlc/Deep South has become elongated over the past 24hrs, weakening in the process.
With weak forcing from the trough. Only slight adjustments made to the highs based on latest RAP forecasts and extended the time for isolated showers across the srn zones in the 18z-00z time frame.
/Issued 308 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017/ The wedge will hold strong today as the parent Canadian high pressure migrates across New England. Clouds will finally break Monday morning as a weak cold front traverses the area.
740 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail through this afternoon as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east. As a result, ridges in the north will keep below 40F, and even the SE will be about 10F below normal for mid-Nov. *Light wintry mix likely Sunday Night-AM Monday *Slick spots and travel delays possible early Monday morning Forecast remains consistent tonight through Monday afternoon as persistent zonal flow aloft and return flow around retreating high pressure offshore deliver sufficient moisture for some light precipitation late tonight through Monday afternoon. The Lower Susq Valley appears likely to escape most of the wintry wx with surface temps remaining well above freezing.
616 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure to the north will gradually weaken and slide offshore today. A weak coastal trough and low pressure area will develop Sunday Night through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area Monday.
908 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure along the east coast will weaken today allowing a cold front to cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
The weak trough axis will continue to be the focus for shower development through the morning into the early afternoon. Drier air in the lower levels will move into the region from the northeast tonight. Derived image of precipitable water shows deeper moisture along the Lower to Middle Texas coast with PWAT values around 1. Short wave trough swings through the Ohio Valley tonight.
High level clouds continue to stream over the Northern Rockies as a weak ridge of high pressure remains over the region. The cold front is still forecasted to move into the region sometime on Monday. The increased timing of the front will keep temperatures slightly cooler than previously forecast for Monday. Snow levels will quickly drop behind the front, but the main impact from snow will be over the higher terrain, especially the mountain passes along the Montana/Idaho border.
Showers and storms are ongoing in a band stretching from the Missouri Bootheel southward into central Louisiana along a cold front.
/Issued 334 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ A cold front pushed through the Panhandles yesterday evening, and northwest winds will prevail today behind that front. Winds will also make the temperatures feel cooler today. Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar, but will feel warmer as winds will likely be light and variable with mostly sunny skies.
There is very low probability of patchy freezing fog developing this morning over areas of snow pack.
424 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water Vapor shows upper low over north central Kansas. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains through the middle of the week, with dry weather and warm temperatures.
Upper ridge then rebounds through mid week with dry conditions.
High pressure aloft will return midweek with a second stronger and colder storm expected late in the week.
555 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm today, cold front later this evening/tonight. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Cold front will be east of the forecast area to start the period, with cold air surging in behind the front. Have a non- diurnal temperature trend in at higher elevations Tuesday, with a transition to from rain to snow as an upper level low crosses the Great Lakes. Across the lowlands, we should see mostly rain showers Tuesday before changing over to snow through the late afternoon and evening.
Aviation conditions are improving across South Texas as cold front moves through the region, clearing fog and lifting cigs. A cold front is currently tracking across South Texas towards the coast early this morning. Today will be cooler, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cooler and drier conditions develop tonight under mostly clear skies and weak winds.
/issued 309 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ The upper level low over Kansas will slowly move off to the east today and upper level ridging will build in on Tuesday. Winds will drop off quickly after sunset as the upper low moves off to the east and will generally be light through Tuesday night.
and Tuesday Low pressure over southern Iowa will move slowly to the east northeast today as the closed upper low moves east from the central Plains. Precipitation type is not usually a concern when a storm moves along this track, but there is not an arctic high over southern Canada to deliver cold air in the low level this time, so precipitation type will be an issue. From Wisconsin Rapids to Shawano to Oconto there should be a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain with some accumulation.
Bowling ball upper low making its way across Kansas will catch up to its sfc reflection later today, and the system will become vertically stacked over NW Missouri this evening before heading ENE into the Great Lakes tonight. Not much temp recovery is expected on Tuesday under lingering upper trofiness behind the departing cyclone. Most of the wraparound moisture will stay to our north, but held on to slight chance POPs over the Bluegrass region late in the day as the low-level flow turns more northwesterly.
H100-H70 anticyclone over the W Atlc will maintain a mild and steady SE breeze thru 5KFT this aftn as it drifts slowly seaward ahead of a cold front advancing acrs the Lwr MS Valley. These winds will tap the higher moisture values over the Keys/FL Straits, while moisture pooling with the advancing frontal trof advects in from the west.
Upper level low pressure system was over KS and will affect areas south of us. KS upper level low will produce north or northeast winds today and tonight across much of the Red River Valley. Short wavelength upper ridge from MT to SASK will move into the the area this afternoon and tonight. Low level moist layer was relatively shallow and so will leave flurries/light freezing drizzle out of the forecast for today and tonight. 500 mb short wave trough will move east-southeast into eastern ND and northwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Light snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches have been observed in the higher elevations north of the Treasure Valley with ITD reporting slick roads. Also, latest model runs continue to support light snow accumulations in the valleys mainly east of Mountain Home and in the higher elevations of southwest Idaho. All activity will decrease by the afternoon with lingering light snow showers expected over the higher terrain. Drier conditions will accompany an upper ridge as it moves into the region tonight through Tuesday morning.
Felt cutting a few degrees off the high today was warranted. Currently, deformation zone col centered over central ND with strong areas of low pressure northwest and south-southeast, and high pressure centers northeast and southwest. Eventually tonight winds will transition to westerly from west to east along with increasing mid to upper level clouds as a mid level S/WV trough moves east into the region.
A cold front will move through the area this morning, resulting in northwest winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts. /issued 331 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move through West Central Texas this morning, resulting in northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast today, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon, resulting in northwest 20 foot winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts.
A cold front is currently tracking across South Texas towards the coast early this morning. Today will be cooler, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cooler and drier conditions develop tonight under mostly clear skies and weak winds.
/issued 528 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ Early this morning a dry-line/cold front continued to spread East across the Four State Region and shortly before 5 AM had moved to near a Camden to Magnolia Arkansas, and Minden to Logansport Louisiana, and Center and Lufkin Texas line. A second cold front will be moving across the area later during the morning and through the day with the winds increasing. Aloft a closed low continued to spin across Kansas and Oklahoma which will be lifting to the Northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Vallies and as an open wave over the Great Lakes Region by mid day Tuesday. High pressure on the surface and aloft will provide near normal temperatures and dry conditions for much of the rest of the work week.
522 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 The cold front has moved off to the east and drier air is moving into the region. The cold front has moved east of the I-35 corridor and will continue through the remainder of the southeast CWA before sunrise. Highs in the low to mid 60s across the Hill Country and upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Highs rebound back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday under mostly sunny skies.
This band is occurring along a pre-frontal trough that extends from central LA southwest to near Galveston. Cooler temperatures follow behind the front along with a sharp drop in dewpoints. Convection was being aided by good divergence aloft southeast of a large upper level low pres system over KS. A strong 130 KT jet streak transiting the base of the trough is helping accelerate the system eastward early this morning.
A weak cold front will move through the area later this morning, but light winds and a shallow layer of moisture are allowing areas of fog to develop early this morning. IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through around 15Z before the cold front moves through and the fog lifts. /issued 441 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A weak cold front is slowly moving southward into South Texas this morning and will move through Deep South Texas by mid-morning. Ahead of it, however, shallow moisture and calming winds prior to the passage is allowing for areas of fog to develop across the lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal areas.
624 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Extremely dynamic upper low spinning just east of Hays. The upper low has been meandering overnight as it intensified, but is forecast to get the boot and become much more progressive this afternoon. Primary impact has been, and will be today, the intense NWly gradient winds on the back side of the cyclone.
945 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm today, cold front later this evening/tonight. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Cold front will be east of the forecast area to start the period, with cold air surging in behind the front. Have a non- diurnal temperature trend in at higher elevations Tuesday, with a transition to from rain to snow as an upper level low crosses the Great Lakes. Across the lowlands, we should see mostly rain showers Tuesday before changing over to snow through the late afternoon and evening.
The high resolution models, and too a lesser extend the global models, the majority of the precip will be over the mountains with the plains being dry. Have kept the low PoPs in for these areas. Going into Tuesday things will be dry outside a chance in the high mountains. Some weak ridging will work back in.
The rest of the day will be warmer and dry. A southeast low-level flow is forecast to turn onshore as a sea breeze circulation develops, and this will keep coastal areas a bit cooler while the rest of the area warms into the lower 80s. Expect the low clouds and fog at KPGD and KTPA to scatter out over the next hour or two. Southeast low-level flow will shift southward tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
With plenty of residual moisture in the lower atmosphere thanks to the precip yesterday, this patchy fog will likely continue for the overnight periods for the next days.
This activity was occurring in northwest quadrant of low pressure system that was centered in north central Kansas as of 3 AM. Snow has already fallen in parts of northeast Nebraska where temperatures have dropped below 33F and spiral bands of seeder clouds have rotated around low pressure system. By noon today, areas from near Missouri Valley to Omaha and into southeast Nebraska will be the battle ground between warmer air wrapping around low from the southeast and colder air plunging south on the back side.
753 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a cold front tonight. The Plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the Upper Ohio. Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via the crossing mid level trough.
Models have cinched up on a track for the low. Important to note that latest trends have been to push the track of the low, and thus the warm air sector ever so slightly further to the WNW.
528 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Early this morning a dry-line/cold front continued to spread East across the Four State Region and shortly before 5 AM had moved to near a Camden to Magnolia Arkansas, and Minden to Logansport Louisiana, and Center and Lufkin Texas line. A second cold front will be moving across the area later during the morning and through the day with the winds increasing. Aloft a closed low continued to spin across Kansas and Oklahoma which will be lifting to the Northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Vallies and as an open wave over the Great Lakes Region by mid day Tuesday. High pressure on the surface and aloft will provide near normal temperatures and dry conditions for much of the rest of the work week.
Meanwhile, the lower elevations will remain dry. Appears orographics and CAA will be the primary producers of snow with this system, and the snowfall that manages to form will probably be scattered over the higher terrain where an inch or so of snow is possible. Elsewhere, downslope flow off the Front Range mtns will keep the plains dry on Tuesday, although cannot rule out a stray snow shower or two across the far northeast corner of the state before noon on Tuesday as the trough passes overhead.
Because no precipitation is involved today, opted to change the highlight to a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow at Arlington, over the I80 Summit, as well as in the Bordeaux area. Highs will climb back to near freezing east of the mountains, and hold in the 20s west. Otherwise, Tuesday will be dry, with high temperatures again reaching the low-mid 30s at most locations.
Given the breezy conditions and cool temps, it will feel much cooler than the ambient temperature readings. Winds across the highest terrain will keep up tonight, but winds will be light across the remainder of the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A weak cold front is slowly moving southward into South Texas this morning and will move through Deep South Texas by mid-morning. Ahead of it, however, shallow moisture and calming winds prior to the passage is allowing for areas of fog to develop across the lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal areas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 40 48 31 / 80 70 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 41 46 29 / 50 80 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 40 46 30 / 70 70 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 41 46 27 / 10 80 30 20 TN.
with warm front extending E/NE to southern Lake Michigan. A band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms has developed within the warm sector of the system well ahead of an approaching cold front. After that, the big question will be if any additional convection will develop along the advancing cold front late this afternoon. Despite this high shear/moderate instability environment, the main mitigating factor for convection later today will be a lack of deep-layer moisture. At this point, will focus highest PoPs during the morning hours as the main band of precip passes, then will include low chance late this afternoon as the cold front approaches. The cold front will sweep through central Illinois this evening, followed by a return to colder conditions overnight. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.
/Issued 356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the region today behind a cold front.
633 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through today. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night.
Moisture levels and rain chances will increase going on into the weekend as onshore winds resume as the high moves off to the east.
In the upper levels a deep trough over Texas opens up to broad ridging over the southeast.
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will push an weak frontal boundary toward northern Indiana this afternoon. High pressure will then settle across Indiana from the upper midwest to start the work week. Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure in place across the east coast with weak and poorly organized low pressure over Manitoba stretching southeast toward the western Great Lakes.
237 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night. Upper low with cooler conditions and showers midweek. High pressure by end of week. Low pressure wave will move east across southern zones at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times as it does so.
The dry air will settle south today and be in the vicinity of the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor by noon and south of Interstate 80 by 4 pm. The storm threat will settle south of Iowa tonight with clearing skies and cooler temperatures arriving.
Currently, there are upper level troughs over the Southern Plains, and over southern Manitoba and northern Quebec provinces of Canada. The two Canadian troughs will drop south and merge into one larger trough over the Great Lakes on Monday. The southern Plains trough will gradually phase with this new larger trough and drop southeast to the upper Texas Coast/lower Sabine River Valley by late Monday.
The high res HRRR model does show a weak lake Breeze trying to move into portions of the shore areas this afternoon. The approach of the rather strong mid level 500 mb trough from the north this evening, may bring more clouds. A push of colder air occurs late tonight as winds become northeast behind the trough.