Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1118 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Wx map shows high pressure settling over E TX/LA this evening with calm winds across most areas along and north of I-10. /issued 401 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ Partial clearing this afternoon has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower/mid 50s over most of the area, though upper 40s are holding firm amid clouds and light rain over South Central LA.
Fortunately temperatures were mainly in the middle and upper 30s where rain was falling so do not anticipate problems with freezing rain. The highest radar returns were found across the northwest, down through the Missouri River region. The eastward shift occurs as a weak secondary cold front from Saskatchewan slides south through western and central ND. BUFKIT soundings indicate a fairly saturated column, particularly in the lower levels though overall chances for snow look underwhelming. Along with a few flakes, freezing drizzle may be possible in the far southwest. Though guidance hints at the possibility of freezing drizzle, due to lack of nuclei, opted not to include freezing drizzle in the forecast due to overall confidence in precipitation being low. Cooler Canadian air will filter into state with the surface front, bringing cooler temperatures for Saturday.
High pressure will begin to nose in from the south midday Saturday, pushing lingering downlake snow showers further north and leading to some level of clearing. Locations south of I-76 should warm up much warmer than areas further north, which will likely stay in the clouds. With high pressure continuing its northern push, dry weather will carry through Saturday night.
The second concern is the freezing drizzle potential in NW MN later this morning. but will monitor this area as well, as freezing rain could be possible.
1205 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 A weak upper level trough will approach tonight and cross the area Saturday morning.
In response, low pressure will strengthen over the lee of the Rockies allowing for gusty south winds to be in place. Latest guidance has sped up the timing of the cold front with it expected to move through by early Thu afternoon and possibly as early as Thu morning.
354 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Upper low over AZ/Mex border closing off, providing a temporary reduction of clouds streaming into area.
Nighttime lows will be mild for mid-December standards, dropping into the lower to mid 20s.
Weak northerly flow will allow slightly cooler air to filter into the region from the north, so expect thermal gradient from north to south throughout the day.
Luckily temperatures have risen with the approaching rain freezing precipitation has not been a problem. 06 at the Bismarck Airport through 3 AM and fortunately temperatures are not significantly cooler behind the trough. With that said, there does appear to be some clearing in the northwest, and any areas that would happen to drop to around freezing this morning would have the potential for some slippery sidewalks and untreated roadways.
The surface and upper troughs move off to the east taking the RA/SHRA with them late evening into Saturday night. A low latitude upper level low will track east across TX Saturday into Saturday night. A cluster of thunderstorms may become embedded in the broader areas of rain over far east counties Saturday evening as models develop a coastal trough east of VCT.
1033 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, southwest to south-southwest winds will increase and become gusty by mid to late Saturday morning as a surface trof of low pressure deepens over far southeastern CO and extends southward into eastern NM, leading to a corresponding tight surface pressure gradient and attendant gusty winds. A cold front will affect the region just beyond this fcst cycle.
Tonight, look for weak high pressure aloft to follow on the heels of the low pressure system that ended the dry spell. A weakening warm front will approach from the west during the day Saturday.
312 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 An upper low over northern Mexico will move northeast today bringing a small chance for showers to the Big Bend and eastern Permian Basin. The increase in clouds from this low will keep highs from increasing much, though the MET seems to be overdoing the cooling a bit.
As the precipitation ends this morning, a very brief period of freezing drizzle is possible, at least in pockets across the Fond du Lac and Sheboygan areas as cloud ice begins to dissipate. Right now, it doesn't look like any freezing drizzle would be widespread enough to cause significant impacts, but it'll be something to keep an eye on this morning. Temperatures will reflect the range in sunshine, with readings near 40 along the state line, to just the low to mid 30s across the Highway 23 corridor.
346 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 A strengthening warm front stretched from a developing low over the eastern Dakotas southeast across southern MN into southern WI early this morning. Temperatures at 3 am were mostly in the lower to mid 30s over eastern IA and northwest IL with southwest winds of 10 to near 15 mph and high clouds in the upper level northwest flow affecting mainly areas north of I-80. Further north, the earlier arrival of the wind shift and greater potential for high level clouds will limit highs to a range from the lower 40s along highway 20 to lower 50s along highway 34.
Aloft, a split flow pattern is in place, with a trough axis shifting off the New England Coast within the northern stream, while an upper level low spirals across northern Mexico within the southern stream. Return flow out of the south southwest has ensued, with cooler valleys in the east reporting in the lower 20s, while upper 20s are noted on the ridges. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level low across northern Mexico ejecting out and dampening as it moves northeast.
Areas of -SHRA will develop Saturday afternoon over Cntrl TX ahead of a closed low over the Gulf of CA, which will eject NE while opening up across the Big Bend region of SW TX.
108 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states.
This could keep overnight min temps above the freezing mark in the Boulder/Broomfield/Arvada/Golden area. In the high country, HiRes models indicate a gradual increase in wind speeds through the night up around timberline and east slope of the Front Range Could see sustained westerly winds of 25-35 mph and peak gusts to around 55 mph after midnight. A dry cold front is expected to move into northeast Colorado Saturday morning.
323 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure over the northern Gulf states will bring plenty of sunshine and breezy southwest winds to the region today. Temperatures will respond by jumping into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon.
430 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky tonight, Friday, and most of Friday night. Highs on Friday may be even warmer than today, with max readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected across eastern Kentucky. It should be even warmer Friday night, with lows that night forecast to only bottom out in the upper 50s.
154 PM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 A low pressure trough passing over the SW will continue to produce strong winds through early this evening. The trough will move into AZ and NM tonight with much lighter winds. Cooler tonight as drier air invades the region under mostly clear skies, then warmer into the weekend under weak high pressure and offshore flow.
Upper trough moving through Idaho this afternoon. Models agree the upper low will track east into southern Montana tonight before shifting southeast into the central plains on Friday.
Large storm system will produce strong to damaging winds and A large upper trough taking shape over the Rockies today will quickly deepen over the Plains Friday. A mid level jet will round the base of the upper trough and shove a Pacific front through the area early Friday. While this front will bring cooler air, the main story will be the wind. Will upgrade much of the High Wind Watch to a Warning for tomorrow.
Main forecast change for this cycle, in collaboration with our neighboring offices, was to remove all mention of freezing rain. Point forecast soundings indicate a transition over to sleet before turning over to snow with little in the way of any freezing rain.
Stratus will return into the coastal areas by early this evening with ceilings mainly in the low MVFR range through the night. The low level jet of 40-45 knots will be along the coast late tonight. Onshore will steadily increase along the coast south of Port Aransas today as low pressure continues to deepen over the central high plains.
310 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Gusty south winds continue this afternoon as the Lee surface cyclone continues to deepen.
/issued 342 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ Southerly flow has prevailed throughout the region today and wind speeds are expected to increase through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure along the Mid Atlc seaboard will migrate further over the Wrn Atlc basin. Brisk onshore winds veering to the Southeast and South will bring warmer conds along with an increase in moisture late this week. Development of southerly winds on Sat will bring increasing moisture and possibility of a few diurnal showers as high pressure moves well out to sea. Watching next deep trough nearing area on Sun. High pressure ridging continues north of the area with 10-15 kt winds near the coast and 15 kt winds over the open Atlc. SE winds around periphery of marine high pressure will produce seas around 4-5 feet over the waters during Fri and into Sat.
Large scale troughing across the western CONUS will amplify over the Great Plains tomorrow. The low level baroclinic zone will extend across southern Wisconsin starting tonight, while the surface warm/stationary boundary remains to our south across Illinois.
628 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 As low pressure exits the Great Lakes region this evening, a trailing boundary will stretch across the southern Great Lakes tonight and Friday.
High pressure will be Northeast of the region through Friday, with a moist onshore flow expected.
/issued 1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ Flat upper ridging over the lower MS River Valley, strong WAA, and abundant sunshine will result in temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s today, several degrees above seasonal normals.
High pressure dominates the weather across the region for the next few days with mostly clear skies expected. A dominant ridging pattern will exist across the region through the remainder of the week, promoting unseasonably warm and dry conditions. As we head into the weekend, a significant upper trough will move across the eastern U. A multi-day severe weather event appears likely, as a strong cold front surges southeastward from the Southern Plains to the Florida Gulf Coast.
This warm advection precip was occurring as a flat upper level ridge was shifting east into the Northern Plains. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over Hudson Bay with short waves moving through the flow. A band of light snow/rain will spread east thru far southern ND into west central MN Friday due to a lead short wave moving up around the 500 mb trough over Utah.
Overall, not going with a whole lot of changes with the upcoming forecast as models remain on track with the passage of the upper trof and its associated cold front tomorrow (through early Sat). The main upper trof is progged to begin moving east (from around the Four Corners area) Friday. Diurnal destabilization/increased forcing through the day will be fighting the strong cap over the region as the upper trof axis approaches from the west.
1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Temperatures already have reached into the low-mid 60s across the forecast area, with full sunshine and southwest winds gusting 25-30 mph. Latest high-res models continue to set up the warm front near or just south of I-80 this afternoon, perhaps scraping the far northern CWA. with warm front extending eastward along the I-80 corridor. As the low tracks into the Great Lakes later this morning, the boundary will get pushed slightly further southward. As a result, have lowered high temperatures there into the lower 70s.
154 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 All eyes are focused on the approaching western CONUS trough. Ahead of the trough, ample low level moisture is already being drawn north out of TX and that will continue overnight tonight aided by a developing low-level jet. At this time, most of the high-res models develop a broken line of thunderstorms west of the forecast area by 19/20Z and then move the activity east-northeast.
Winds have come back around to out of the south in the low levels with southerly winds from the surface through h85. Freezing level continues to rise and is now around 14800 ft. /issued 409 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ One last day of quiet weather is expected as weak ridge passes overhead today. An upper level trough will enter the Pacific northwest today.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, perhaps reaching upper 80s in far western portions of the forecast area. Strong cap in place through much of the night should be eroded enough to allow for scattered elevated convection toward Friday morning especially across eastern OK in closer proximity to mid level height falls associated with approaching upper level low. Should see an increase in elevated convection Friday morning as the upper low and cooler mid level temperatures spread east, with some indication of this becoming more surface based through the afternoon.
405 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Low pressure will track eastward from the Great Lakes region tonight. A cold front from northern Canada will approach Friday and cross the region Friday night. Low pressure will track out of Quebec into northern Maine tonight. This track will be conducive to snow north of the low. In general, most of the lower elevations under 1000ft will see one to two inches and a lot of that will come within a couple of hours when snowfall rates could hit an inch an hour. In general, the air behind the low will be milder and moister with highs tomorrow another couple of degrees warmer than today.
1111 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 A low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow across the the Inland Northwest into this morning.
Following the passage of a cold front overnight the upper level trough behind it will be passing over the region today.
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 As low pressure exits the Great Lakes region this evening, a trailing boundary will stretch across the southern Great Lakes tonight and Friday.
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 18Z surface data has the cold front from Chicago back across northern Missouri. fair or average with marginal confidence on timing and confidence of cold front and associated impacts with the front.
Looks like there will be a potential for freezing rain/drizzle across the south central, east of the Missouri River Valley late tonight and Friday as there appears to be a lack of ice crystals in the soundings across this area.
229 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 All eyes are focused on the approaching western CONUS trough. Ahead of the trough, ample low level moisture is already being drawn north out of TX and that will continue overnight tonight aided by a developing low-level jet. At this time, most of the high-res models develop a broken line of thunderstorms west of the forecast area by 2-3 pm and then move the activity east-northeast.
Strong negatively tilted upper level low continues to move on shore across Pacific northwest this morning. Winds will only increase over the next 24 to 48 hours as the upper level low moves through the Desert Southwest and then the Plains. Tomorrow the upper low will be placed in just the right place during the morning/afternoon to crease very windy conditions for much of the day.
A strong upper low will move southeast across the central Rockies tonight and then move east into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Low stratus will develop early this evening along the coast and move inland as the low level jet strengthens to 40-45 knots. Models continue to indicate rain chances will be minimal during the evening hours as the lower levels dry out some. But moisture associated with the cold front will move into the region by late evening across the northern counties. A short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico will also lead to increasing lift. Southerly low level flow will increase to 40-45 knots over the coastal plains into the coastal waters as the low pressure area over the central plains deepens.
By Sat, an upper level ridge will be in, with very little cloud, strong warming, and an end to northwest flow, so temperatures spike up.
339 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure, warming, and drying trend into the weekend.
452 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 For tonight, we remain north of the warm front for much of the CWA, save for north central Kansas, and therefore most of the wind tonight will be east and changing to north behind the low as it tracks east. Some showers may occur in our north in the post-cold front regime.
353 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore into the weekend with a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
A warm front lifts northward through the area tonight and Friday.
High pressure is expanding across the region in the wake of a FROPA yesterday, with only a few brief isolated afternoon showers possible. /issued 327 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ The remnant boundary from the cold front is sitting south and east of the region this morning. With high pressure building back in at the surface from the Atlantic, easterly flow will dominate today. On Friday, the mostly dry pattern continues as the next cold front emerges over the central United States.
347 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure, warming, and drying trend into the weekend.
404 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure over the southeast US continues to push away from the area this afternoon and evening. At the surface, our region is in the warm sector with a quasi stationary SW-NE oriented warm front northwest Missouri and southeast Iowa.
Weak high pressure will return Friday with mostly dry conditions and temperatures slowly warming.
An area of low pressure was developing over the high plains and we should see a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the low today across the area. Temperatures should warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s again today with rather warm lows in the low to mid 60s tonight.
A cold front will start to enter the Panhandles tomorrow.
342 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Southerly flow has prevailed throughout the region today and wind speeds are expected to increase through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Otherwise current forecast trending ok with temperatures rising above freezing southwest where initial surge of precipitation should fall as rain.
250 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Quite varied weather expected over the next 36 hours as an upper low deepens over Colorado overnight then moves out into the central plains Friday. A cold front is currently moving east across the CWA and nearing Laramie. Some indication of dry slotting over the plains overnight but then should see rain and snow build south later tonight as the surface and upper lows edge into the plains, continuing through Friday, all snow on Friday.
A storm system moving north of the area today and Friday will bring strong gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
Very strong southwest winds will persist into the early evening hours as a cold front moves across the northland. This will usher in cooler temperatures and winds will be gusty at times.
Cold front will push rapidly across the CWFA from our west counties around 17z, reaching central sections by 20z, then departing our east counties by 22/23z.
242 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 Low pressure over central Kansas early this morning will deepen rapidly as it streaks northeast into northern Ohio by evening. 00Z RAOBS indicating strong kinematics associated with upper trough extending through the CONUS. High pressure building into the TN valley will have winds backing around to a more westerly direction and bring an end to any remaining lake effect Sunday morning.
1231 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 CLouds will be increasing at the TAF sites overnight, but will remain VFR until the afternoon/evening hours when moisture depth and lift will become adequate for precipitation ahead of a cold front.
The remainder of the short term forecast appears on track with a ridge building for a couple of days.
Temperatures trend warmer with increasing winds Sunday. Upper level ridge of high pressure building east into the Northern Rockies and MT tonight will spread drier and more stable air into the region with any lingering snow showers along the continental divide diminishing by Saturday morning. Model analyses and water vapor satellite reveal a synoptic trough axis is now moving east of our forecast area. The mid-level westerly flow increases on Saturday for windy conditions across the north-central MT plains, then increases further by late Sunday as the upper level ridge de- amplifies. The lee-side trough of low pressure deepens further Sunday as well, for increasing potential of strong winds, initially along the Rocky Mtn Front, and possibly extending east into adjacent western portions of north-central MT by late Sunday.
Near record max temps are expected again today across central and southern areas with west/southwest surface winds ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area this afternoon. Model guidance is in good agreement bringing the strong cold front near CLL around 18Z, and then into the Houston area 20-21Z, and off the coast 23-00Z.
1021 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 A Pacific low pressure trough over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin will pass to the east of the western mountains of Wyoming through the evening bringing a significant decrease in Pacific moisture as the upper level flow shifts to the northwest and colder air moves in. Strong winds aloft behind the Pacific low pressure trough may surface along the east slopes of the mountains with the highest winds in the Cody foothills and the Upper Wind River Basin bringing a threat of high winds around Clark and Dubois.
254 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017 A passing cold front will result in continued dry but cooler weather today and Sunday across southern New Mexico and west Texas.
1030 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Evening water vapor loop showed the mid/upper level trough axis from western WY through central UT. Cold front that moved through the CWA earlier this afternoon extended from southeast UT across central CO and KS, with an extensive band of post-frontal precipitation. Further east, most areas across the High Plains have been in the warm sector of the frontal system, which has been stationary across the area, so even as the rain changes to snow this evening, accumulations should be less than two inches on grassy surfaces. A decent warming trend begins as the flow aloft backs to almost straight westerly with a surface lee trough forming.
A cold front will sweep east across the area tonight.
155 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Cold front had pushed through the northern part of Kansas City and through Wichita as of 07z this morning. Temperatures should drop down into the low 30s tonight.
Ahead of the low gusty southerly winds are occurring across the area. An upper level trough will sweep east across the Plains tonight and then across the area on Saturday. As the upper level trough moves across the area late tonight into Saturday morning, showers and may be a few rumbles of thunder will be develop and occur behind the front. The better potential for these showers will be across central Missouri closer to the trough axis. A cooler air mass will remain over the area on Sunday as lows drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30 with highs warming into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
251 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Strong cold front, currently moving into western Osage county, will sweep through the area today with scattered showers across NE OK/NW AR.
357 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Northwest flow in the wake of the cold front will yield a relatively cold day with below normal temperatures and brisk winds.