Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS. AMPLIFIED S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRI NIGHT. EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS BY TUE. A MID LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF FL WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE NW TO WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW AFT BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 30 PERCENT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS.
320 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.
VERY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE LIGHT FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA.
257 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WAS ELONGATED SOUTH AND WEST INTO WESTERN IA. THIS HIGH WAS SURGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE EASTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL SYSTEM.
Clouds should clear out this evening with net result being mostly clear and cooler night. It does appear that the ridge will eventually break down and allow some energy from the west to break through and bring a chance of precip mid week.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ROTATES INLAND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY QUIET VFR FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST.
141 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO THE WEEKEND.
225 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR.
431 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MAKINGS ITS WAY ENE. A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE SEWD AND DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS KY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S BUT THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The RAP has done a good job with the infiltration of lower level dry air from the NNE, and a better job with short term temps, slightly warmer NW and cooler toward the TN border with KY. with a h5 closed low forecast to develop close to the TN valley next 24 hours. The low will then drop SSE.
506 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
235 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The cold front moved through the Ozarks last night and Canadian air was filtering into the region with temperatures this afternoon in the 60s under the cloud cover to lower 70s where the sun was shining.
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS (RATON MESA/PALMER DVD) IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE LESS OVER THE REGIONS AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PREVIOUS THINKING OF MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TRACK WITH PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES.
A PASSING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
302 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE STRETCHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COMPACT UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCING LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW RETRACTS TOWARDS THE WEST. AN UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN EJECTS NORTHEAST.
335 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) With high pressure continuing to dominate West Central Texas for the next 24 hours, persistence looks to be the best approach for the tonight and Thursday forecast periods.
With slightly drier air moving in at the lower levels. Clouds should clear out this evening with net result being mostly clear and cooler night. It does appear that the ridge will eventually break down and allow some energy from the west to break through and bring a chance of precip mid week.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE LOCATED OVER NRN SONORA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS IS PROGGED FOR TODAY WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS. A BETTER CHANCE COMES LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A LONGER LIFE. BUT NOT UNTIL UPPER RIDGING SHARPENS ACROSS WEST TX ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING THE GREAT BASIN.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE MID-SOUTH FROM JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT COLD FRONT MARKED BY THE APPROACHING STRATOCU DECK AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
200 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.
THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TONIGHT. MIXING AND WARMER COLUMN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP WITH FROST NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY SO LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN.
559 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The cold front moved through the Ozarks last night and Canadian air was filtering into the region with temperatures this afternoon in the 60s under the cloud cover to lower 70s where the sun was shining.
PER EXPECTED DEEPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS MID STATE. UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE MID STATE.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND AREAS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOCALLY THE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOW PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD HAS NOW ENTERED THE FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD GUSTING OVER 15 KNOTS AT TIMES AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 56/GDG SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL ATMS STABILITY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. AS THE 500 MB RIDGING AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASES EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS IN THE RGV TO WARM GRADUALLY.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT LOWER HEIGHTS DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER IS PRETTY MUCH LODGED IN PLACE. DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM NE LOWER WILL BE MOST PROTECTED FROM THE WIND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SEEM LESS LIKELY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL A BIT TIGHT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. WHICH WILL SEEM EVEN COOLER WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS FROM THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINING UP FROM WISCONSIN TO KANSAS. UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURES NORTHEAST FLOW. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AREA WIDE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA RESULTING IN A DRY N/NE SFC FLOW LOCALLY.
320 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF RESPECTABLE RIDGING THENCE AN UPPER LEVEL WHICH SHOULD COME INSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING. / A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG WSWRD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH AN AREA OF UPPER 50 DPTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BREAK DOWN.
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE MID STATE.
310 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 MAIN IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE HUDSON BAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION (BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW).
120 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE ARKLAMISS BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. /27/ CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT UPPER LOW INTERACTION WITH "JOAQUIN" OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED BACK A LITTLE WEST WITH THE PIVOTING UPPER LOW CENTER.
322 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THE AMOUNT OF FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A DRY SLOT WORKING UP FROM UTAH.
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDIER AND GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.
Only feature that will help keep temps warmer will be the wind. Still, have trended to the cooler guidance.
A low pressure system that will slide by to our south will spread mid/high clouds over the area on Thursday which will end our sunny weather. The lowest and thickest clouds will be over southeast Washington and the southern Panhandle.
THURSDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH.
215 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.
Details are not clear with weekend storm, but will be unsettled, breezy, and cooler with snow possible higher elevations. Regardless of any precip, cloud cover and onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs Thursday in the 70s in the Valley and 50s/60s across higher elevations.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a prevailing northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains while upper level ridging remains situated across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across the Great Lakes. Low level ridging continued across Kansas with the fresh, cool airmass in place. Outside of that corridor, where some direct insolation will finally occur, temperatures are expected to reach the lower to perhaps mid 70s. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much, including the low level pressure, wind, moisture fields, so another round of expanding nocturnal stratus is expected later on tonight across nearly the same areas. The lower tropospheric temperatures will undergo a slow decline through much of the period with 850mb temps falling into the upper single digits by the weekend.
315 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF ITS LOCATION DURING THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALOFT AND COOLER HIGHS TODAY.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM HIGH PRESSURE.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS.
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHICH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA TODAY.
MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH THEN IS TIMING COLD FRONT/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST WITH PCPN ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY.
Thunderstorms could affect most terminals tonight behind a cold front. As a cold front makes its way southward into the area Friday evening into Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front, providing the potential for flash flooding across these same areas. As the day progresses, the low level circulation over the western Permian Basin is expected to move westward, allowing for increased low level moisture into the area.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA. /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/ THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
649 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BROAD TROUGH IS LITTERED WITH SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND BOUNDARIES. AND SEEMINGLY ENTRANCED ON QUICKLY SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. SO AS FORCING FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK TO FAVOR AREAS NEARER THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
921 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST.
A REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND THE LOW NEAR 40N 150W. LOWS WILL BEGIN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE SATURDAY. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
701 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
1051 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY.
1139 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
934 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1000 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE PWATS OF OVER AN INCH IN THE STRONG FGEN AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MEAN THAT MORE RAIN AND STORMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. TOWARDS EVENING ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING AND INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
1254 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
803 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED SOME AND MOISTURE IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TOMORROW. /ISSUED 446 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST.
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
943 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CENTRAL MONTANA AS THEY WERE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO TO LOWER THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP.
930 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
710 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY.
Can see low clouds beginning to move northeast toward KSOA behind the high cloud shield, which lends some confidence to the low cloud trend expected. At the surface, a cold front stretching roughly from northern Minnesota southwest into northeastern CO. Ahead of the cold front, lee troughing will allow south/southeast winds to develop at surface in our area. This will help the low levels quickly recover from last night's convective overturning. Models show ML CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg by late afternoon in our area, and remaining greater than 1500 J/kg during the overnight hours ahead of the cold front as it moves southward.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
1125 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE WAVE/WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.