Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front stretching from southwest and central MO into central IL will push into the forecast area this afternoon into the early evening. PoPs will decrease after 03z Friday as the cold front stalls along the AR/TN border. On Friday evening, the stalled front will begin to lift north again as a warm front, kicking off scattered to numerous showers and storms as it moves north through the forecast area. High temperatures Friday will range from the lower 90s in southeast MO to the middle 80s in the EVV Tri-State. Energy over the northern Plains at the beginning of the period will dig southeast, forming a trof from near Lake Michigan back across Illinois into Missouri.
A system will begin to approach from the PacNW causing the thermal ridge to set up directly overhead. Lows will be warmer than normal. The thermal ridge looks to be maximized ahead of the approaching system so it will be the hottest day over the next 7 days hopefully. Afternoon showers and storms will develop in the higher terrain and be capable of producing gusty outflow winds and dry lightning once again.
342 AM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 An upper low will track eastward along the MT/Canadian border and bring a weak surface cold front/moisture boundary eastward across southeast MT today. West of the boundary, over much of south central MT, there will be elevated fire weather conditions as low-level northwesterly winds will downslope the higher terrain and produce still another hot day, with relative humidity dropping to near 10 percent, and breezy winds of 10 to 15 mph gusting to 25-30 mph. Another cold front will move southwestward over the region this evening, and northeasterly winds behind the front will bring in cooler air for Friday. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday as an upper trough moves southeastward over Montana. As the upper trough moves farther eastward, showers/storms will diminish from west to east Friday night.
Latest models suggest weak instability through the afternoon with relatively deep moisture in the wake of the cyclone. in the low to mid 80s and overnight temps in the low 70s. A broad upper trough will cross the eastern conus Friday and Friday night. Weak short waves moving through the trough combined with daytime heating and pwats 1.
There is a bit of a thermal ridge in place across that area, along with southerly winds, that will help to aid warming in the southwest. The strongest winds remain just east of the lowest RH, which is centered over fire weather zone 204. A cold front will push into the area providing a focus for storm development Friday afternoon and evening. 0 to 6 km shear values will range from 35 to 50kts, with sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and CAPE values around 3500 J/kg or greater.
Scattered storms will again be possible on Friday before upper ridging leads to drier and notably hotter weather conditions by the weekend.
This morning, an upper level low pressure circulation is traversing the Canadian border with Montana. This circulation will bring some relatively cooler air to the Northern Rockies from the north, resulting in a slight decrease in daytime high temperatures for today and Friday. Winds pick up region-wide behind the cold front passage this afternoon. The good news is that flow aloft will shift to the northwest behind this fast- moving trough, pushing smoke to the south of the Northern Rockies later on Friday.
Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate weak low pressure spinning across deep south Texas. Radar continues to show some ongoing convection across the CWA with the heavier activity across the lower Texas Gulf waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and rotate around the low pressure system today into tonight. Brownsville radar currently shows ongoing convection rotating across Starr and Brooks Counties, across northern Tamaulipas State, and along the lower Texas coast into the offshore Gulf waters. The 500 mb closed low and surface features will eventually shift slowly westward through the period.
Weak cold front has moved through the Panhandles with dry and stable conditions behind. Upper level ridge continues to strengthen over the Four Corners area. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s expected today. Not much changes for the area on Friday as the high pressure still remains in place and limited moisture will be available. The north will be the warmer area, with the south in the low 90s.
Elsa will be long gone from the region by morning, but a weak upper level trough will hang back over the region this afternoon helping to generate a scattered/widespread showers and storms.
There should be a lull in the precip tonight, but chances will begin to increase again on Friday ahead of a cold front.
523 AM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 08z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. 2KJ/kg MLCAPE pools along trough with 50kts 0-6km bulk shear.
617 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 A cold front will move into north Arkansas today and stall. Today Through Friday Night Upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The upper trough will move east today and Friday. By Friday night, the upper ridge will remain in place, and the trough will be over the east coast. A cold front will move into north Arkansas today and stall. Near normal temperaturs are expected in the short term with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
As Elsa continues up through the Carolinas today and tonight she'll drag the upper trough axis to the our east and spur a few showers and storms this morning and again this evening.
Then a cold front associated with an upper trough will swing through Friday evening/Friday night and set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms.
This will serve to help flatten a strong ridge situated over the desert southwest with a ridget extending into Arkansas.
Thunderstorms have been ongoing tonight across Southern Alberta associated with a nearly stationary upper level low. There is a low chance that a couple showers or thunderstorms could skirt along the international border today as the low begins to move away to the east. A weak surface front will trail behind the passing system, providing a slightly cooler and more humid airmass into North-central Montana. Even as temperatures start to trend cooler along the Hi-Line, it will remain seasonally warm across Central into Southwest Montana. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin. Drier weather can be expected for Thursday, with westerly surface breezes picking up after 08/16Z as a closed upper level low moves eastward along the Canadian border.
/Today through Friday/ Persistent broad upper-level trough extending from the Texas coast into Louisiana to allow for increased rain chances again today along a northward progressing sea-breeze boundary.
If a storm can develop, 1500 J/kg and strong directional shear in the low levels and stronger/balanced speed shear aloft should support supercellular development with ping pong ball sized hail and 75 mph winds possible. The low level jet looks to focus closer to the 750 mb layer as 850 mb and lower layer appears to really struggle with moisture.
Brownsville radar currently shows ongoing convection rotating across Starr and Brooks Counties, across northern Tamaulipas State, and along the lower Texas coast into the offshore Gulf waters. The 500 mb closed low and surface features will eventually shift slowly westward through the period.
An upper-level anticyclone was centered over NRN AZ early this morning, while offshore over the ERN PAC, a ridge was beginning to amplify downstream from an upper trough. The ridge will further amplify as it moves east across the west coast during Friday, and then become anomalously warm as it expands over the entire WRN CONUS this weekend.
(Today through Friday afternoon) W TX/SE NM remain on ewd periphery of the strong subtropical ridge anchored just w of the 4-Corners area and on the wwd side of the mid/upper low INVOF of S TX. Fri PM there is a slightly better chance for precip across the Lower Trans Pecos in assocn with aforementioned mid/upper low's farther w position. Friday will be a little warmer, especially across wrn CWFA including wrn PB and SE NM, as the mid-level heights increase with expansion of mid- level ridge.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 72 86 71 88 / 40 40 70 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 86 71 87 / 50 30 50 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 69 86 69 85 / 50 40 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 68 84 66 85 / 60 40 50 20 60.
912 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Mid level ridge was centered over the Four Corners this morning. With very little in the way of forcing evident to force convection (WV imagery actually indicates subsidence over the region attm), we look to the terrain of SE OK into W AR where the combination of elevated heating and the higher dewpoints in place to generate isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms.
Thunderstorms have been ongoing tonight across Southern Alberta associated with a nearly stationary upper level low. There is a low chance that a couple showers or thunderstorms could skirt along the international border today as the low begins to move away to the east. A weak surface front will trail behind the passing system, providing a slightly cooler and more humid airmass into North-central Montana. Even as temperatures start to trend cooler along the Hi-Line, it will remain seasonally warm across Central into Southwest Montana. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin. Westerly surface breezes pick up later this morning as a closed upper level low moves eastward along the Canadian border.
Today Through Friday Night Upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The upper trough will move east today and Friday. By Friday night, the upper ridge will remain in place, and the trough will be over the east coast. A cold front will move into north Arkansas today and stall. Near normal temperatures are expected in the short term with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The main issue with the cloud cover will be the low level stability influence and high temperature forecast.
1254 PM PDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Dangerous heat returns to the forecast area over the next several days due to a strong ridge of high pressure building overhead.
The activity should gradually diminish as we lose the low level instability during the evening hours, as the surface front stalls out most likely somewhere over western KY. However, higher chances of convection will come Friday night as some mid level energy within northwest flow aloft interacts with the low lvl boundary.
354 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 A cold front will pass through the area this evening providing showers and storms. High pressure will bring dry and cooler weather on Friday before another frontal system returns stormy weather to the forecast this weekend. Surface cold front draped from northwest Ohio back through southern Illinois will continue to slowly sag southeast this evening into tonight just ahead of a digging mid- level trough. Temperatures will start to drop tonight behind the front, with low temperatures reaching the low 60s northwest to upper 60s southeast. Meanwhile the cold front, which will stall over the Tennessee Valley Friday, will return northeast as a warm front late in the short term period. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s northwest to low 80s southeast on Friday, with lows dipping into the low 60s Friday night.
(This afternoon through Friday night) An upper lvl subtropical ridge has settled over the four corners. A tropical system over South Texas will move northeast into MX increasing moisture and instablilty for the Lower Trans Pecos. The aforementioned ridge will continue eastward with heights increasing Fri increasing temps a few degrees across the region.
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Through Friday High pressure beginning to build back over the area with southerly winds across the area.
Upper level troughing will remain over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, the western extension of the Bermuda ridge will extend across the gulf coast states. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mod 70s with highs Friday in the upper 80s.
The upper level wave looks to weaken as it heads eastward overnight, which stalls the weak boundary associated with the trough over the area.
Generally building ridge aloft over our forecast area (southern AL/MS and western FL panhandle) and adjacent Gulf waters through Friday with a flattening upper trough to the north of the region.
08z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. 2KJ/kg MLCAPE pools along trough with 50kts 0-6km bulk shear.
207 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a couple of short wave troughs upstream of the area.
Upper level low off the Pacific Coast moving to the Idaho Panhandle tonight generates a bit more wind today, especially across southeast Oregon. Temperatures near 100 in the lower valleys again today, but there is quite a bit of smoke coming across the area from a fire in south central Oregon, which should help to hold things down a degree or two. Temperatures slightly lower tomorrow in the northwest flow behind the upper level low which moves off to Montana.
Other isolated/widely scattered activity was in the higher terrain across far southeast Oklahoma. Upper ridging to nose into the area from the west, which will result in a dry, but warmer Friday.
Cooler and dry for Friday. An upper-level trough axis will continue to push east of our area for the remainder of the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will continue to track east as well.
Taking a look at the lower levels for the overnight period, there appears to be the possibility of a stronger boundary layer pressure gradient tonight, strong enough for the development of at least MVFR ceilings across much of NE TX after midnight.
Decent low/mid level south-southeasterly flow across the Dakotas is helping to ramp up boundary layer moisture across western and central ND, where dewpoint temps have risen steadily up into the low to mid 60s as of 19Z. Friday will be another active day across the Northern Plains (and cooler), as another mid level trough moves through the region.
All the short term, high- resolution models show a pronounced thermal ridge nosing northeast across west central Kansas, which is where the best potential exists for highs in the 102-104F range.
With the upper ridge poking into the region, Friday is expected to remain dry across the fa.
High pressure will continue to influence our weather for the next few days, bringing plenty of quiet weather. Couldn't rule out a few upper 30s in the low-lying areas, but frost is not likely.
Will continue to monitor and amend if necessary, with the highest probability at KMLC and KFSM thru early evening. /Issued 912 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ Mid level ridge was centered over the Four Corners this morning. With very little in the way of forcing evident to force convection (WV imagery actually indicates subsidence over the region attm), we look to the terrain of SE OK into W AR where the combination of elevated heating and the higher dewpoints in place to generate isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms.
The ops models and hi-res models all show a couple upper level low pressure troughs dropping across our region through Friday night. The first upper low pressure area spinning in southern Canada this afternoon will be heading southeast tonight and across eastern sd into Friday morning. Otherwise, the main area of storms was with the Canadian short wave trough this afternoon. Otherwise, this round of showers and storms will move southeast on Friday while another upper level low pressure trough moves towards our region for Friday night.
A trough will be over the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow, the wet pattern will continue as a cold front approaches the region tomorrow. With increased rain and cloud cover temps will be warm with highs in the low to mid 80s. McD -Warm and humid through the period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day We start the period under the broad eastern US trough aloft.
The main upper low is still out over north central MT, and will move towards the ND border this evening. Conditions over our CWA will remain more stable, and the main upper support will be to our south and west as the MT upper low dives southeastward towards SD overnight. Some lingering cloud cover will be possible into Friday, but overall we should see a bit more sun and warmer temps with some locations getting into the lower 80s. As troughing pushes southeast of us, upstream ridging will transition us to northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Unfortunately, this also means a return of the heat, as maximum temperatures climb into the lower 90s.
Cooler air backs into the area tomorrow from the northeast. Thunderstorms are not expected to be strong Friday afternoon, and the cloud cover and precipitation will enhance the cooler airmass over the area for temperatures much closer to seasonal averages in the 80s. Friday evening precipitation will shift eastward and out of the area as warmer air pushes back in from the southwest.
Low temperatures still relatively mild tonight in the low 70s with a lingering low level jet and clouds hanging on for much of the night. A broad upper trough will cross the eastern conus Friday and Friday night. Weak short waves moving through the trough combined with daytime heating and pwats 1.
Tropical Storm Elsa situated in the Carolinas will continue to move to the northeast as a longwave trough over the Ohio Valley presses eastward. A deep- layer ridge axis has become established over the south- central Florida Peninsula, while there is a TUTT cell quasi- stationary northeast of Hispaniola.
These models suggest storm development across the Black Hills, Pine Ridge and Cheyenne divide late this afternoon which would carry east this evening and overnight. The better focus will be across SD where a warm front will be positioned. The warm front will drop south through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and the models are in very good agreement dropping the front through swrn Nebraska by Friday morning. Thunderstorm activity, not necessarily severe, should continue overnight as heights aloft fall with the approach of a developing upper level low.
139 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 After slightly cooler and breezy conditions today, scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, mainly during the late morning through afternoon period. Temperatures climb back into the 90s for the weekend under strong high pressure. Transitory upper-level ridging moves across the area from west to east the remainder of this afternoon and evening as an upper low over northeastern Montana exits east and brings the chance of severe weather this afternoon to those areas. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin. Some Westerly surface breezes continue though early this afternoon as a closed upper level low continues to move eastward along the Canadian border.
Subtle ridging aloft should keep a lid on most convective development, though like the last few days, a few stray showers/thunderstorms may be possible during the heat of the afternoon.
Friday is set up to be the warmest day this week as temperatures increase into the low 90s for most locations.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 71 88 71 / 40 70 20 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 71 87 70 / 30 50 20 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 69 86 69 85 68 / 40 50 30 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 66 85 67 / 40 50 20 60 50.
High pressure rebuilds this weekend, bringing a bump in temperatures back to well above normal. Locations that end up with heavy smoke may see temperatures stay cooler than expected during the day, which makes for a complicated forecast.
All this comes courtesy of overhead trough axis, allowing cool Canadian air to spill into the region.
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 A pleasant summer afternoon is shaping up across the area today thanks to the expanding influence of the upper level high center to our west. The synoptic setup today is quite similar to yesterday, with the upper anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest flattening and expanding slowly eastward over West Texas. Friday will be very similar to today, with slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures as the upper anticyclone continues to slowly expand eastward. Otherwise, with ridging overhead, the atmosphere will remain dry and mostly sunny skies will prevail.
Surface analysis shows a dome of high pressure centered just west of the Azores continues to build over the Atlantic. As the ridge builds throughout the afternoon and evening across the south- central Florida Peninsula, gradient flow should gradually increase, resulting in freshening southeasterly flow.
A ridge will continue to amplify through the weekend with a strengthening upper-level anticyclone building westward over the WRN CONUS.
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Cooler and dry for Friday with highs in the 70s. An upper-level trough axis will continue to push east of our area for the remainder of the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will continue to track east as well.
The upper level trough to the northwest over the Ohio Valley will direct scattered showers and thunderstorms southeastward overnight from western KY and middle Tennessee into the forecast area later tonight.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Friday Night/ North Texas remains between strong ridging over the western U. and troughing over the eastern CONUS with a pronounced mid level trough over Deep South Texas.
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 A cold front will pass through the area this evening providing showers and storms. High pressure will bring dry and cooler weather on Friday before another frontal system returns stormy weather to the forecast this weekend. Surface cold front draped from northwest Ohio back through southern Illinois will continue to slowly sag southeast this evening into tonight just ahead of a digging mid- level trough. Temperatures will start to drop tonight behind the front, with low temperatures reaching the low 60s northwest to upper 60s southeast. Meanwhile the cold front, which will stall over the Tennessee Valley Friday, will return northeast as a warm front late in the short term period. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s northwest to low 80s southeast on Friday, with lows dipping into the low 60s Friday night.
316 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper low approaching northwest. May have to wait for the enhanced lift associated with the approaching upper low to initiate sustained convection. Another upper ridge crossing the area may lead to mostly dry weather during the day on Friday, with some storms possibly initiating over the Black Hills in the afternoon.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to track west to east across central Indiana late today before ending from north to south this evening as the associated cold front slowly crosses the region. This afternoon the cold front was stretched from just north of Terre Haute, northeastward to just east of Kokomo. especially as the cold front crosses into the south central and southeastern counties late today.