Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Late today into tonight, the higher mountains are forecast to reach 45 kts, especially across the northern mountains and Wyoming border. Highs Saturday will remain cooler, only expected to reach 50-60 on the plains and 30-40 across the higher terrain. Strong northwest flow overnight and a surface lee trough will result in strong downsloping winds over the foothills. While the rest of the plains will likely hit freezing or below, areas in and along the foothills will remain warmer.
High pressure at the surface and aloft over the region will be shifting slowly east during the period. By Saturday evening the upper ridge moves off the southeast U. Meanwhile, a deep long wave trough and associated cold front will move across the Midwest.
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
By Sat night, moisture is forecast to pool ahead of a cold front that is progged to be pushing across the Hill Country through the night, bringing increasing rain chances to the northern tier of the CWA late Sat night.
Have included PROB30 wording to reflect this low chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning.
306 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 20Z/3 pm surface analysis shows 1025 mb high pressure along the OH/WV border and ridging from the eastern Great Lakes to AL/GA. Dry weather to continue through Saturday as mid/high clouds continue to increase from the SSW ahead of a short wave trof in Texas and nw Gulf of Mexico. Milder lows tonight in the lower 50s in eastern IL and upper 50s from Peoria and Springfield west.
Expect lows to be a little cooler than previous nights in the U60s to L70s.
333 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
Deep layer ridging will maintain rain-free conditions over the area through tonight.
612 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
550 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
A cold front is expected to drop across the terminals during the last few hours of this TAF cycle.
As we approach daybreak Saturday, low level winds will begin to veer to a more southerly direction with the approaching trough, and increasing moisture transport/convergence should support shower development, especially over western/southern portions of the forecast area, but rainfall amounts should be light.
124 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
As we move later into the evening, our focus quickly turns to the strong cold front bearing down on our region from the northwest as the longwave trough spills out of the Rockies across the Plains. Expect a strong line of convection to develop along the cold front as it advances east of the I-35 corridor into eastern Oklahoma and north central Texas Saturday evening.
234 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected.
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
113 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Strong high pressure will continue over the area, then shift offshore this weekend.
A much larger longwave mid/upper level trough moving eastward over the Western U.
123 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure will remain over the area today, keeping a dry and mostly clear forecast. The upper-level ridge will build through this evening, allowing our daytime highs to creep up from yesterday's readings. High pressure will remain anchored through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry.
For Saturday afternoon, a cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma by early to mid afternoon a as mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Thunderstorms along the cold front are expected to quickly grow upscale into a quasi-linear convective system as it shifts southeastward into central Oklahoma due to strong, linear forcing and shear vectors becoming parallel to the front. Nearly all convective-allowing models (HRRRX/NSSL WRF/HRW WRF- ARW/HRW NMMB) do initiate convection along this trough axis, ahead of the cold front. Any cells that develop along the trough across southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas have the potential to remain discrete/supercellar longer before becoming undercut by the cold front.
130 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Upper trough extending from NW US down to Mexico today with a ridge over the SE. This trough will swing across the Rockies overnight and move onto the plains Saturday.
The cold front that brought us wind, rain, and snow above 4500 feet yesterday and this morning will transition and make its return as a warm front tonight into Saturday. First, the strongest winds are expected along the coats and across the higher terrain, although all areas will see at least a good stiff breeze. This means those areas that have and will receive snow, especially along the Cascades, will see a good deal of rain and warmer temperatures on top of that snow.
347 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will shift offshore on Saturday.
Canadian high pressure will take control of the region tonight into Sunday, and bring dry weather for the remainder of the weekend.
Some convection has been focused this morning in portions of north GA where low level convergence near a quasi-stationary/warm front has aided lift. though could see scattered showers or thunderstorms form almost anywhere in the CWA with increased PVA ahead of the trough axis. Upper wave axis gets east of the CWA by this evening, allowing for scattering/clearing and transition to NW flow aloft and upper ridge building in. Pleasant Sunday on tap accordingly with mostly sunny and afternoon dewpoints in the low 50s for many locations. Resultant daytime highs should stay close to slightly above climo norms in the low to mid 80s for most of the CWA.
With winds from the southeast today, afternoon highs will be slightly warmer, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. For tonight, light winds from the south will continue to bring warmer air into West Central Texas.
A weak wave traversing the region this evening will result in a weak surge of north/northeast winds tonight and Saturday morning, but winds will rapidly become easterly during the day in response to the building thermal ridge and surface pressure trof to our west. A weak warm front extended from southern North Dakota through the Fargo/Moorhead area to near Hibbing. Temperatures tonight will be quite chilly again across northern Minnesota with lows around 30 degrees (and a few upper 20s in normally cooler locations).
However in the past hour winds aloft have come down some and so have sfc winds with the formation of a weak Denver cyclone which as cause sfc winds to turn nly along the base of the fthls and acrs the nrn I-25 corridor. with the upper ridge axis now east of the state, moderate flow aloft has gone swly. Later this afternoon with strong heating, could see another round of showers/t-storms pop up over the high country and move out over the plains with the pretty much the same weather. As for temperatures, highs will run 10-15 deg f above average with low/mid 80s on the plains and mostly 70s in the high country.
A deep upper low swinging through the Pacific Northwest will bring another round of showers to southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today. The focus of shower activity will be associated with an upper level wave circulating around the low center. In lower valleys a frost is possible Sunday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
304 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Amplified upper level ridge remains the dominant feature over the next few days as it slowly traverses eastward across the center of the country.
08z surface analysis indicates a ridge axis centered from Topeka, to near Wichita Falls. Near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon, with temperatures on Sunday expected to average 4-8 degrees warmer than those of today.
Conditions will begin to improve after sunrise due to heating and drier air moving into the lower levels. Update: Instability has been on the decrease with sunset, and this has led to diminished storm intensity, but with plenty of lift associated with the upper low interacting with the moist airmass, storms have managed to multiply and organize over much of North Central MS. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Saturday: The upper low centered over central/southern Arkansas will track east across the area through tonight. There is some concern for slow-moving convective elements to produce locally heavy rainfall closer to the upper low center where lift is strongest, so will need to monitor for localized flooding threat as well. Otherwise, expect convective activity to diminish after sunset with cooler and more stable air advecting in behind the upper low later tonight.
Bubbly cu over northeast South Dakota could lead to an eventual sprinkle of light shower of rain, especially along a slowly southward sagging cold frontal boundary trying to work its way into far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic which predict the upper pattern to shift EWD during the period with a N-S upper ridge axis to move east of the CWA/MSA while a high amplitude upper trough builds over the WRN CONUS.
Gusty wind expected to develop mid morning and persist ahead of approaching cold front with broken line of shra/tsra pushing northwest to southeast across the area this afternoon and evening.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 50s.
Trough axis will slowly shift eastward today, reaching Central Pennsylvania by this evening. Clouds will slowly decrease from west to east, but it will be a slow process due to the aforementioned trough. Morning clouds will greet the area on Sunday, as mid and upper level moisture moves southward on the back-edge of the exiting trough.
657 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region allowing for a warming trend in temperatures through mid week and mostly dry conditions. Expect temperatures to drop off during the evening hours, however as warmer air advects into the area temperature drops will be less through the night and some areas may see slight rises in temperatures late in the overnight. Temperatures will be warmest across southwest portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover and cooler across northeastern portions of the region where there will be more cloud cover. A back door front will sag into the southern part of the forecast area at the beginning of the period as high pressure noses into eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania.
635 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure continues moving across the region and will move through the Midlands late this morning and offshore this evening. This will keep showers and thunderstorms over the area today with high pressure and drier air overtaking the region tonight.
At the surface, high pressure has settled across the High Plains. Aloft, the upper low that brought storms earlier this week is now located near the Arklatex. Another expansive upper low was spiraling just off the Pacific Northwest coast. A lee trough begins to develop tonight along the Colorado Front Range. In addition, the lee trough axis should advance east into northeastern Colorado. Ahead of the trough, an unstable environment will develop, characterized by SBCAPE up to 1500 j/kg and 850-500 mb lapse rates of 7.
/issued 254 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): The cold front is slowly meandering southward across the CWA, and can be delineated by cloud cover or the lack thereof. Temperatures north of the boundary will fall into the lower 60s in the drier regime, while areas near and south of the front will still reach around 70 degrees. Temperatures will stay similar to today's highs, reaching the low to mid 90s.
416 AM MDT Sat May 13 2017 One more warm to hot day is in store for the forecast area today as a ridge of high pressure currently in place over the Rocky Mountains gets displaced by an approaching trough of low pressure. Southerly flow will increase ahead of this trough of low pressure resulting in breezy conditions beginning this afternoon persisting into the early evening hours. However, model soundings are suggesting that the lower atmosphere will be much to dry to support any measurable precipitation. On Sunday 500mb heights will fall some as slightly cooler air moves into the area. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the Rocky Mountains sliding to the east into the Great Plains. A low pressure system centered over the coast of Washington and Oregon is also evident.
A strong inversion lowers from east to west from the center of the low to areas west of the low. The base of a stacked trough axis is also rotating through the area today.
As the high moves off to the east tonight and tomorrow, the north to northeast winds will swing back around to the southeast.
352 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region allowing for a warming trend in temperatures through mid week and mostly dry conditions. Expect temperatures to drop off during the evening hours, however as warmer air advects into the area temperature drops will be less through the night and some areas may see slight rises in temperatures late in the overnight. Temperatures will be warmest across southwest portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover and cooler across northeastern portions of the region where there will be more cloud cover. A back door front will sag into the southern part of the forecast area at the beginning of the period as high pressure noses into eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania.
As one upper level trough moves away, another moves onto the west coast with an upper level ridge in between moving into Texas. Surface ridging builds into South Central Texas tonight and then drifts off to the east by Sunday. A drier airmass will result in cooler, below normal nighttime temperatures as daytime temperatures remain within a degree or two of normal.
/Issued 344 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Mid-level ridge in the wake of departing system will translate eastward across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles tonight through Saturday morning.
309 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Mid level ridge axis to shift over the forecast area today. On the surface, warm frontal boundary currently along the ND/SD border into west central Mn expected to lift north to near the highway 2 corridor by evening. North of the boundary cooler but still seeing highs in the 70s. Thermal ridge axis ahead of surface boundary reaches the western fa by tomorrow morning. Region shifts into mid level sw flow Sunday as upper ridge shifts east.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Low-level flow gradually becomes westerly on Sunday, advecting in warmer air.
Upper low over the Pacific Northwest will drift eastward.
Gusty winds this morning will be followed by cooler and somewhat calmer conditions this afternoon. A low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest will result in below normal temperatures and fairly widespread gusty southwest winds across the area on Sunday.
An eastward moving upper low is situated over NW Alabama. Cooler air is filtering into the region behind this upper low.
The upper trough over the region will pull out as the ridge to our west edges east.
An upper trof over the southeast states (phased with an upper trof over the interior eastern states) moves off to the extreme northeast Gulf and western Atlantic through tonight.
With the cold front having now moved through most of the area, west, post-frontal winds are coming in stronger than forecast models showed. High pressure and clearing will arrive by Sunday morning as the upper low center will be cut into by a short wave ridge embedded within the otherwise SW flow aloft.
300 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A cold front will pass through from the west today. A weak and dry cold front will move through from the north Sunday night.
/issued 325 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ West Texas and southeast New Mexico will be under upper ridging today between an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and an upper trough over the east coast. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the higher terrain today with possible disturbances moving over the area under westerly flow aloft. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the CWA with the most likely area being the higher terrain.
Clouds remain over much of the area along with some patches of fog, but the clouds and fog will clear out quickly this morning as dry high pressure pushes into the area.
331 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure centered over Mississippi with associated cold front stretching from the low south into the northern Gulf coast. This low pressure will gradually make its way into the Florida Panhandle shifting the low level flow more southerly overnight. Dewpoints in the upper 60s combined with max temperatures near 90 degrees will lead to heat indexes from the low to mid 90s. Mother's Day, both the GFS and ECMWF prog the cold front to press over southern Florida continuing the trend of higher pops over South Florida for most of the day.
Weak high pressure will move across the area through the weekend. Mid level heights will slowly rise as a ridge builds north and east across the MS Valley region toward the Great Lakes.
Troughing over the Rockies will increase southerly flow across the Plains states through the day, with a breezy south wind developing late this morning into the afternoon.
Low Pressure across the Nrn high plains drops south Saturday to near the Black Hills. The NAM and SREF are generating scattered convection Saturday night ahead of a cold front progged to move through Sunday. H700mb temperatures barely budge Sunday suggesting the warmer model solns will work versus the cooler NAM soln. Another wave eminates from the Upper level low across the Western U.
However, Mother's Day won't be too shabby either with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s, albeit a bit breezy with winds picking up out of the south as return flow begins to establish once again. Quiet weather will continue into the start of the work week as ridge moves over the region.
Some breaks of drier weather will occur as well, so all in all, expect an unsettled and cooler than normal Saturday (certainly not an all-day deluge of rain). As we head into tonight, those with sensitive vegetation may want to protect their plants, as temperatures could drop very close to freezing by Sunday morning if skies clear overnight.
With an upper level ridge of high pressure nudging in from the west. expect even warmer temperatures across the local area tomorrow. expect a much tighter pressure gradient to develop across the local area tomorrow as low pressure strengthens on the lee side of the Rockies. Above normal temperatures are expected through the extended periods as a trough of low pressure is expected to develop and persist across the intermountain west for several days.
An upper level ridge will build into the area tonight into Saturday. Drier air, light winds, and clear skies will result in cooler temperatures tonight. Lows will fall into the lower 60s across most of the inland locations with mid 60s along the Rio Grande.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning ahead of a cold front that will sweep from west to east across the Tri-State area today. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
407 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure over the southern Appalachians will deepen as it reaches the mid Atlantic Coast this evening and then move up the East Coast on Sunday. A weak cold front will drop across the lower Great Lakes tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the central United States today will move eastward tonight into Sunday.
544 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Nice weather expected today across central and southeast IL with a fair amount of sunshine and warmer highs in the upper 70s to around 80F and low humidities. Models have trended a few degrees warmer today from 76-81F with westerly winds 7-14 mph, ample sunshine and dry airmass.
GFS shows some weak Theta-E advection riding the ridge across western Iowa past 09z Sunday.
359 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure continues moving across the region and will move through the Midlands late this morning and offshore this evening. This will keep showers and thunderstorms over the area today with high pressure and drier air overtaking the region tonight.
300 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017 After some isolated morning fog in a few areas, the sun will again dominate the region with high pressure in firm control. As the high moves off to the East, the pressure gradient will tighten up some allowing the winds to kick around to the South as the next short wave approaches the region.
528 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017 The low cloud deck extends over much of Louisiana and deep east Texas still this early morning, all moving S/SW in the low level flow around 20 mph. All in all it will be a nice day with high pressure of 1015mb over N Arkansas sinking southward into the Mississippi valley. The cooler NE winds will end soon with a warm up as Southerly winds return during Mother's Day from West to East.
A broad upper level trough remains over the Pac NW today with a pool of cold air aloft that will provide for enough instability for mainly afternoon and evening showers. On Sunday the trough remains but weakens a bit.
A weak wave of low pressure will track across central WI into Lower MI today. A surge of warm advection on the nose of a 35-40 kt wnwly LLJ will accompany the low this morning into the early afternoon. A cold front will likely come off Lake MI in the wake of the low for late today into the evening but should be relatively modest for this time of year. A mid level ridge will move over the region. High pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes will create an enhancement of the northeast winds. It will surge inland creating a surface boundary against southwest winds from approaching low pressure.
The mid-level ridge axis will shift east of the forecast area this evening and will be replaced by a long fetch of SWly flow aloft moving in from the subtropical Pacific. Slightly warmer than normal temps are expected under abundant sunshineand light to moderate southerly winds Sunday.
323 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure and its associated rainfall will track off the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast this evening, then deepen as it shifts north off the New England coast Sunday. Some stratocu and cooler air aloft with upper energy over Northern VA may clip the Lynchburg to Buckingham area this afternoon with a few showers, but all in all anticipate increasing sunshine.
A quiet weather pattern will settle in over central Indiana for the next several days under the influence of high pressure.
The upper level trough axis will continue to shift to the east through the overnight, with showers gradually diminishing across the area. This may keep low temperatures a bit warmer than currently forecast, but will take a harder look at the numbers in a few hours. An upper level low continues to shift into the southern Mississippi river valley this afternoon, with a frontal boundary draped across the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. However, low clouds may linger through most of the night and may actually build down onto the ridges tonight. Thus, will confine the fog to mainly the higher ridges. Fog/stratus will give way to clearing on Saturday as mid level ridging slides southeast over the region. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a cool Saturday night with temperatures into the 40s in most locations (outside of ridges).