Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We'll observe the heaviest precipitation across the region for the next 6 hours as a cold front moves onshore later this morning. The biggest impact with this cold front will be snowfall in the Cascades with 4 to 6 inches above 4500 feet with lower totals around 3500 feet. Finally by Tuesday, high pressure will begin to build with a thermal trough developing along the coast.
640 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Early this morning a frontal boundary remains draped across Kansas and the main trough/upper low continues to dwell over the desert southwest. The low will then move northeast of KS by late tomorrow. The upper trough/developing low remains on the slow train, thus pops continued to be slightly delayed overnight.
High pressure over the eastern CONUS is keeping skies clear tonight. With temperatures already down around 50 degrees, we are right on track for lows this morning in the low-to-mid 40s. An unsettled pattern sets up starting Tuesday with an approaching upper-level trough that will sit over the region for several days. This will lead to increasing clouds tonight ahead of the cold front associated with the developing low. While the dynamics with this system stay well to our north as the low tracks up towards the Great Lakes, the trailing cold front will help to force showers on Tuesday, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening. This low pressure system develops around southern Texas and will be a significant player in the chance for heavy rainfall and flooding through the next several days.
A trough moving through the Great Basin will increase the chance of light precipitation across the mountains Monday night into Tuesday.
The expected axis of heaviest rainfall has moved a bit further west and will likely be centered along the Highway 281 corridor. However, some of our higher resolution models like the NAM, NAM NEST, and HRRR indicate enough dynamic cooling as the upper low strengthens that we could see rain mix with or change over to snow at times across our western zones (from around Kearney west). In addition, the GFS and ECMWF are a bit warmer and would keep things as pretty much all rain. The upper low responsible for all of our rain the next few days will have departed to our northeast. However, a secondary upper low will open up as it tracks out of the desert southwest and through Kansas.
A benign pattern sits over the Northern Plains early this morning, with weak quasi-zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. This may provide enough forcing for light precipitation to develop along parts the trough/deformation zone axes tonight. The presence of a theta-e ridge and near zero EPV along the deformation zone provides further support for this potential. The high temperature forecast for Tuesday could be a bit tricky as a narrow corridor of sunshine may set up from south central to northeast North Dakota.
This morning a trough of low pressure amplifies southward from British Columbia, bringing snow to much of the Northern Rockies above about 3,000 feet in elevation. The higher peaks in the Clearwater, Mission, Swan, and Flathead Ranges will see considerably more snow, in the neighborhood of 6 to 12 inches. This afternoon, warming in the lower levels of the atmosphere will contribute to widespread convective instability, creating the potential for banded snow showers. Clouds and mountain snow will linger on Tuesday as the trough axis moves east.
A few clouds across the west this morning, otherwise another quiet one with temperatures noticeably warmer than the last few mornings. Look for afternoon highs to also be a few degrees warmer than yesterday even with high clouds increasing throughout the day.
530 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
715 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 (Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows upper level low spinning over New Mexico with southwest flow aloft across west Texas. Otherwise, it will be cooler today due to the extensive cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 40s.
938 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The upper level ridge axis has shifted just to the east of the forecast area with southwesterly flow aloft. Most locations should climb into the low 70s this afternoon. An unsettled pattern sets up starting Tuesday with an approaching upper-level trough that will sit over the region for several days. This will lead to increasing clouds tonight ahead of the cold front associated with the developing low. While the dynamics with this system stay well to our north as the low tracks up towards the Great Lakes, the trailing cold front will help to force showers on Tuesday, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening. This low pressure system develops around southern Texas and will be a significant player in the chance for heavy rainfall and flooding through the next several days.
413 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The next weather system moves through the area, today trough tomorrow. The associated ridge extends northward along the 140W longitude line. A series of upper level trofs slide along the front edge of this ridge and across The Treasure State.
330 AM MST Mon Mar 22 2021 A series of weather disturbances will affect the region this week bringing cooler temperatures and frequently breezy conditions.
516 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail through the week with the main storm track remaining to the west and south of the forecast area. Today will be mostly sunny with slightly warmer than average temperatures and breezy southerly winds. A split upper trough will bring a little rain and snow to northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low pressure system ejecting northeastward across the central plains is expected to swing some precipitation into our south central South Dakota zones with a good chance of rain over esp Tripp County on Tuesday, with a little rain or snow possible there on Tuesday night, little or no snow accumulations are expected there.
811 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The next weather system moves through the area, today trough tomorrow. Light snow is falling this morning over the higher elevations of Southwest MT and the Rocky Mountain Front.
A trough axis currently runs through Utah with a mid-level cutoff low now just west of the four corners. with only another inch or two of snowfall in the high country. Another trough will push southeast into the Great Basin tonight. Tomorrow night, this energy continues southeastward into a brief closed low over eastern Arizona.
1057 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
(Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows upper level low spinning over New Mexico with southwest flow aloft across west Texas. Otherwise, it will be cooler today due to the extensive cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 40s.
1016 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. Several waves of low pressure will track to our west during the middle to latter portions of the week, bringing a return to more active weather.
From synopsis: A broad area of low pressure offshore of the northeast Florida coast will slowly move northeastward and further into the Western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, a large continental area of high pressure will build southeastward over the couple of days.
Weak high pressure will keep conditions dry and mild across the area today, and will bring a break in the windy conditions as well. Attention then turns to a low pressure system set to track from the Southern Plains to Kansas tonight, then to eastern Nebraska/western Iowa on Tuesday.
643 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Strong low pressure near the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea. This will lead to diminishing winds and eventually warmer temperatures across the Carolinas by the middle of the week.
637 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Strong low pressure near the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea. This will lead to diminishing winds and eventually warmer temperatures across the Carolinas by the middle of the week.
That flow regime gradually changes through the day to become more SW as a digging trough moves west of the area. As the trough digs south, it'll drag a cold front across the area bringing widespread PoP east of the divide. Widespread snow showers taper off and winds diminish late Tuesday night as brief high pressure sets in behind the departing cold front.
352 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for benign and mild weather to continue through Tuesday.
141 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Gradual waning of strong high pressure becoming further displaced off the eastern seaboard will give way to modest mid/upper level moisture transport which will primarily be seen in increasing high cloud coverage through the bulk of the period. This process within increasingly difluent flow simply translates into a thickening high cloud field Tuesday locally, with little evidence to suggest sufficient saturation will commence across the lowest 10-15k ft to support rain potential. The advent of cloud to restrict heating potential combined with a slightly backed southeast wind points to slightly cooler afternoon readings relative to today, particularly for locations immediately downstream of the cold lake waters.
Closed upper low over New Mexico will lift north and east later today across the Panhandles and then across Oklahoma by 06Z Tuesday. Gusty northwest to north surface winds expected through tonight behind the cold front.
1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
The lower atmosphere will still be very dry, thus its hard to imagine much precipitation reaching the ground but some areas may see a few hundredths of liquid. For temperatures on Tuesday, the highs should be slightly cooler than today with more abundant cloud cover but still above normal.
1157 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The broad-scale trough remains in place across the US, with smaller scale troughs continuing to rotate through. The next trough begins to impact the state starting this afternoon, with snowfall increasing across the western mountains due to better upsloping. As this trough drop southward across ID and UT tonight, it will bring a cold front southward across the state.
126 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
GOES-East water vapor imagery and CIMSS Layer Mean Wind Analysis depict deep layer, synoptic scale ridging across the eastern CONUS and western North Atlantic basin, extending poleward well into eastern Canada. Florida itself is in a precarious position relative to the deep layer ridging, as a cut-off low is present just off the North Carolina coast. Concerning the forecast, changes were minimal this cycle with warmer, but still dry, weather on the way for the rest of this week. Tonight may end up being one of the cooler nights of this entire month, thanks to the surface wind field collapsing and decoupling from the boundary layer. The Keys will realize temps in the (upper) 60s one more time tomorrow night before the warmer pattern fully takes hold.
146 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Broad upper trough covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the low centered over the Four Corners region. Upper low will swing through the central states tonight into Tuesday, while the Pac NW wave will strengthen into a closed low as it dives into the Four Corners region. A few showers will be possible Fri/Sat with energy from the Pac NW trough.
The rain will continue tonight into Tuesday as the closed low moving into the TX panhandle northern Missouri.
Clouds have increased somewhat across the region this afternoon, but overall forecast is on track with no adjustments needed as temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s across the area. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will be nearly stationary just to the west of the Mississippi River through the period. As far as temps are concerned, lows tonight will mainly be in the mid to upper 50s across the entire region and highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 70s.
Models are fairly similar in location and timing of the upper level low moving through southern Kansas and into Missouri Tuesday afternoon. The west has the lowest dew points and they could get cool enough to have a few snowflakes. The upper low moves into northern Missouri by late in the day. During the night Tuesday night, the temperatures have a chance to get a little cooler.
225 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Latest shows upper closed low over New Mexico and western Texas with southwesterly flow aloft extending into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Latest 18z surface analysis indicates weak cold front from southern Ontario Canada into eastern Iowa. Latest visible satellite imagery shows clouds overspreading northward in advance of the upper level closed low. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air advecting into the area along with weak isentropic lift at the 290k surface.
VFR through the period as high pressure continues to dominate.
Potentially drier and warmer weather possible by the end of the week.
GOES-16 Satellite trends/METAR observations depict cloudy skies over the Lower Mississippi Valley with temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s at most locations as of 10 AM CDT. This trough does take on a negative tilt with fairly strong QG forcing across the Mid- South.
Scattered rain showers along with MVFR conditions are expected to spread across Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into Northwest Arkansas this evening as a low pressure system approaches from the west. there may be a period of VFR conditions before IFR/MVFR ceilings spread back in as the upper low moves into the CWA. The one exception could be BVO underneath the upper low where additional light rain showers will be possible into the morning hours Tuesday. the cold front and dryline are expected to push east and southeast into Western Oklahoma and Central Texas by this evening. The movement of these features combined with an upper level low moving eastward into the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles will help to shift the deeper moisture into Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into Northwest Arkansas this evening.
The upper level ridge axis has shifted just to the east of the forecast area with southwesterly flow aloft. Most locations should climb into the low 70s this afternoon. An unsettled pattern sets up starting Tuesday with an approaching upper-level trough that will sit over the region for several days. This will lead to increasing clouds tonight ahead of the cold front associated with the developing low. While the dynamics with this system stay well to our north as the low tracks up towards the Great Lakes, the trailing cold front will help to force showers on Tuesday, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening. This low pressure system develops around southern Texas and will be a significant player in the chance for heavy rainfall and flooding through the next several days.
331 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
By 12Z Tuesday, this area of precipitation becomes identified as deformation zone-forced precipitation, continuing to work slowly north and west into portions of the far swrn forecast zones and the James River valley region, while the center of low pressure further south continues to deepen; undergoing cyclogenesis. North-northeasterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will help to hold temperatures down some on Tuesday, only expected to top out in the low to mid 40s. While under a general broad upper trough, upper lows will be headed away from the CWA, towards the upper Great Lakes and into the Central/Southern Plains. There is another disorganized upper trough upstream, which moves into the plains near the end of the work week and into the weekend.
205 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 (Issued 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021) Tonight: Low pressure in the central Plains will start heading northeast.
24 (Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows upper level low spinning over New Mexico with southwest flow aloft across west Texas. Otherwise, it will be cooler today due to the extensive cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 40s.
Gusty southwest winds will develop ahead of this trough across the western Mojave Desert this evening with winds gusts of 40 to 45 mph expected where is wind advisory is currently in place. Additionally, there will be a chance of showers across southern Nevada tonight, particularly over the higher terrain, but precipitation amounts are expected to be quite light. As the upper low moves into northern Arizona by Tuesday morning winds will be shifting to the north across the area during the day.
Winds will become increasingly southerly/southeasterly throughout the day tomorow, which will lead to a much warmer day across the region, with much of the much of the area climbing into the mid to upper 70s for highs. Much of the region will remain dry tomorrow; however, a cold front is expected to approach the region by the end of the period, and portions of SE Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle could see a few light showers and thunderstorms associated with this next system. As far as low temperatures are concerned for tonight, much of the area will drop into the low to mid 50s.
A slow moving 500 mb closed low is making its way through New Mexico and should move into Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning. Depending on where the deformation band on the backside of the low develops will determine where the highest QPF totals are and models are in pretty good agreement of a 6 hour timeframe for areas east of Dodge City to see this constant moisture stream going through. Tuesday the upper low slowly moves into central Kansas keeping clouds and rain in the picture for most of the day along and north of a Ness City to Pratt line and thus I kept high temperatures more in the mid 40s. Overall winds should be gusting 20-30 mph through the day as the low exits and will keep the cold air advection in place all day.
333 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The latest closed low was over eastern NM moving into west TX per the 20Z water vapor and profiler data. At the surface, an inverted trough extended north and northeast from west TX into the mid MO river valley. The higher dewpoint temps were located across southern OK and central TX. Thunderstorm chances look to be slightly better on Tuesday as the center of the low pressure system lifts northeast across the area. Nevertheless have some decent POPs through the day Tuesday and then slowly decreasing through the evening as the upper low continues moving north.
There doesn't appear to be an obvious mesoscale feature responsible for this enhancement other than increasing low and mid level moisture, but the current radar analysis and the near universal model agreement lend credence to the higher PoPs.
Don't expect to see full sunshine anytime soon, because the next low pressure system is now approaching from the west, and this will bring the next round of active weather tomorrow and tomorrow night.
The low will continue to track northeastward Tuesday with wrap around moisture bringing a continued chance for precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures during the day Tuesday will fall mostly as rain as high temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s. Rain is expected to change over to snow Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the low 30s.
Highs tomorrow will be in the low 60s. After several pleasant days, multiple low pressure systems will move across the Midwest this week. 500-mb observations from this morning's 12z soundings reveal a trough ejecting into the southern Plains. The second round of precip will come as the cold front moves into the area Tuesday evening. A conditional threat for severe storms will exist, dependent on both the timing of the cold front and the extent to which clearing develops behind the initial round of precip. These wind profiles will be favorable for a severe threat, but the timing of the cold front into central IL likely will not be. Still, the potential exists for a few hundred J/kg of surface- based CAPE along and ahead of the cold front.
1232 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Early this morning a frontal boundary remains draped across Kansas and the main trough/upper low continues to dwell over the desert southwest. The low will then move northeast of KS by late tomorrow. The upper trough/developing low remains on the slow train, thus pops continued to be slightly delayed overnight.
Thankfully, this storm will miss us completely with maybe a few flurries across the far southern Nebraska Panhandle and maybe the higher mountains this afternoon and into this evening.
222 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. Upper ridge axis shifts east tonight, giving way to a passing ribbon of high and mid level moisture in increasing southwesterly flow aloft. It may be a bit cooler on the eastern slopes in the mountains as easterly flow results in low level moisture advection ahead of low pressure along the NC coast.
A dryline extended from near the the low down across western Texas with the cold front extending back to the southwest into central New Mexico. As the trough becomes more negatively tilted and pivots up into eastern Kansas Tuesday morning, rain showers should be pushing north into Iowa. Current model runs have instability building through the morning hours with convection breaking out across central and portions of northern Missouri by 18Z; however, if the upper low slows a bit convective chances would be pulled back to the west. The other area to keep an eye on will be in the vicinity of the low.
Ridging aloft will start to move over the area through the rest of today and tonight and continue to build through mid-week. The surface features through tomorrow are a bit murky still, with models still showing a trough hanging around off the northeast Florida coast before high pressure finally builds back in. For the rest of the week, high pressure will be in place, with warming temperatures and increasing humidity each day.
Amplification of the aforementioned upper wave and deepening of the associated surface cyclone will occur over the TX Panhandle this afternoon. The ensuing mature /vertically stacked/ cyclone will track ENE into OK tonight, lifting NNE through eastern KS, northern MO, and Iowa Tue-Tue night. assoc/w strong H85-H7 warm advection/ frontogenesis on the N-NNW periphery of the amplifying upper wave and deepening sfc cyclone. With a homogeneous saturated/above-freezing airmass in place over *and* upstream (N-NE) of the area this morning (per regional surface observations at 10Z). as the low pressure system tracks NNE from Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. as the vertically stacked cyclone lifts NNE into northern MO and Iowa. Active pattern will continue as a series of short wave troughs rotate around large scale trough over the High Plains.
239 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Clouds will continue over the area tonight and into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Expecting temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler over the area Tuesday behind the front, right around our seasonal norms.
A dry morning as high pressure settles in over the region. As a mid level trough along with a surface area of low pressure continues to move farther away from the region, a ridge of high pressure will build over the area as today progresses. West northwesterly flow will prevail across most of the area today, however, winds may back to more of a south southwesterly direction this afternoon across the east coast as the area of low pressure in the Atlantic continues to pull away to the northeast. The ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the region and strengthen on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be warmer due to the southerly flow and they will rise into the upper 70s along the west coast to the lower 80s across the interior and east coast metro areas.
215 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough centered over the OK/TX Panhandle region, with a shield of clouds/moisture streaming northward into the Upper Midwest. That break will be brief, however, as the mid-upper low rotates into Iowa, and precipitation becomes widespread again to its north.