Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
423 AM MST Wed Nov 17 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains today, with gusty northeast winds behind it. A backdoor cold front will move southwest across the area today through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures going into Thursday.
Today Through Thursday Night Upper low pressure is over the northern Plains while weak high pressure is over the eastern U. The upper low will traverse southern Canada and the Great Lakes region tonight and Thursday. An upper ridge will move into the Plains by Thursday night. A cold front will move through the state this afternoon through tonight.
Current SW wind will give way to N/NE later today as cold front blows through the area. (Today through Thursday afternoon) A strong upper low over Manitoba this morning will have a broad trough extending southward down along the Rockies. This trough will drag across the plains today with high pressure building in from the west this evening and Thursday. A cold front will blow into northern counties before noon and pass to the Pecos River by evening. Tonight will see freezing temps across the northern counties but in areas that have already had a freeze. Thursday will be much cooler with highs in the 50s.
515 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Cold front currently pushing south through central Kansas will move into northeastern Oklahoma early this morning and progress southeast during the day. Clearing skies across NE OK/NW AR tonight will allow for near freezing temps by Thursday morning for those areas, though these areas have already had a hard freeze and thus will not need a freeze warning.
547 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 As of 09z Wednesday, the cold front extended from southwestern Wisconsin into northwestern Missouri, just south of KMCI. The rain will come to an end a bit sooner than previously forecast, before sunrise on Thursday, so the lower levels will dry out before the colder air moves thus do not expect any snow to mix in before ending. So high temperatures will only be in the low 40s to low 50s, around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
322 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 As of 09z Wednesday, the cold front extended from southwestern Wisconsin into northwestern Missouri, just south of KMCI. The rain will come to an end a bit sooner than previously forecast, before sunrise on Thursday, so the lower levels will dry out before the colder air moves thus do not expect any snow to mix in before ending. So high temperatures will only be in the low 40s to low 50s, around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
High pressure will move east allowing a return flow of moisture by 12Z Thursday with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into far South Florida. High pressure moving out into the Atlantic Ocean will remain in control today with pleasant dry weather continuing. The highest rain chances will be from around the Interstate 4 corridor southward during Thursday afternoon and evening as the upper level energy moves across the area.
Rain chances are expected to increase later tonight along (and maybe just ahead of) the next cold front. Highs for today will range from the lower/mid 80s (depending on cloud cover). Still thinking that rain chances with this line will be somewhat limited given the lower PWs (1. Cooler/drier air behind the front will begin filtering into the CWA tomorrow/tomorrow night.
Strong high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will promote offshore winds across mountain ridges this morning, followed by passing high clouds and dry weather until Thursday afternoon as the next low pressure system approaches.
We start off with cold temperatures this morning in wake of yesterday's cold front. WV imagery shows a low amplitude ridge along the Pacific Coast. Models show the ridge axis shifting to the east by Thursday morning. We should see temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
328 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Upper trough in the Plains is still developing and strengthening this morning as it moves east towards the Midwest. Cold front will move in early Thursday morning and should be through the mid state by noon or so.
311 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 The main focus in the short term is the approach and passage of a cold front late this afternoon and tonight, and its accompanying impacts on wind, rain, and temperatures. A strong cold front draped across northwestern parts of Illinois and Missouri early this morning is still on track to reach western portions of the forecast area late this afternoon, with frontal passage still anticipated tonight.
To the northwest of that line, temperatures were mainly in the mid and upper 40s with either light winds near the low or gusty northwest winds further to the west behind the cold front. Today, the cold front will move through the area bringing a chance for some light rain showers to areas southeast of a line from Fairfield to Sterling. Tonight, skies will clear out from the northwest as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will subside at night as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead, allowing temps to drop into the 20s for lows.
605 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Aviation - Low Pressure Brings Rain Today then Snow Showers Thursday Upper trough amplifying across the Great Lakes region with surface cyclone tracking across the northern Lakes will bring rain along a surface cold front today, with heavier QPF, around a quarter to half inch, across the southern zones. Surface ridging and rising heights should end the snow showers Thursday night.
Chances for precip increasing tonight with approach of a cold front. A high pressure ridge dominates the eastern seaboard of the CONUS this morning. with the highest winds this afternoon in southeastern AR and west central/northwestern MS. A cold front is on approach from the low moving into the mid Miss Valley today, and rain chances creep into the forecast overnight.
728 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Above normal temperatures are expected today with a passing warm front. A cold front will return rain to the region tomorrow. A warm front continues to lift across southwest PA/eastern OH presently. The upper trough/sfc cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday, resulting in rain and slowly falling temperature.
The tranquil weather pattern persists through the weekend with cooler temperatures, periods of breezy winds, and no precipitation.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 51 65 35 53 / 0 10 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 52 66 32 51 / 0 10 90 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 62 30 50 / 0 10 100 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 44 65 30 47 / 0 0 80 30 0.
Discussion: The main focus for the short term period will be a strong cold front arriving tomorrow morning. This will push a cold front east through TN and into the forecast area by shortly after daybreak tomorrow morning. It will be breezy on the ridges and mountaintops, but H85 winds will be southwesterly so mountain waves aren't on the table. Temperatures will be a bit tricky as the cold front will be fairly strong and looks to arrive during the morning hours.
1020 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Above normal temperatures are expected today with a passing warm front. A cold front will return rain to the region tomorrow. Late morning updates included adjustments to sky cover, mainly downward, as clouds break in the warm sector behind the warm front. The upper trough/sfc cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday, resulting in rain and slowly falling temperature.
The departing low pressure system over the Canadian prairie continues to allow wind speeds to diminish across our CWA, but gusts up to 60 mph are still hanging on for just a few more hours along the eastern edge of the state where the High Wind Warning is still in effect for now. The surface gradient will gradually loosen this afternoon as high pressure moves into the area. High pressure tonight will bring clear skies and colder temperatures.
An upper level ridge remains situated just east of the area, centered over the southeastern Bahamas.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A transient trough within progressive amplified upper flow pattern has sent a cold front into the area, ending the period of above normal temperatures. Lows tomorrow morning will be below freezing across roughly the northwest half of the area, and a hard freeze is expected in far northwest Oklahoma, including Arnett, Buffalo and possibly Woodward.
229 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 A potent closed upper low within a deep long wave trough is located across western Ontario late this afternoon. Portions of north central Nebraska could stay a few degrees warmer in the lower 20s where winds will stay up somewhat. The airmass remains dry Thursday as the Canadian airmass is recycled back northward as the high shifts east and southerly low-level flow develops by Thursday afternoon.
1143 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 (Today and tonight) As of this writing, a mild airmass was in place across Texas and southern Oklahoma, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The well-advertised cold front had just reached the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, with temperatures in the low 50s behind it. The front should reach the Big Country, including Abilene and Sweetwater, by about noontime, which should cap off high temperatures there around 1 or 2pm in the low to mid 70s.
Current surface analysis and water vapor composite analysis highlights a sprawling ridge over the western Atlantic extending through the Southeast United States and the Gulf Coast, with the ridge axis penetrating the CWA. An amplified longwave trough continues to dig across the Great Plains as it slowly treks eastward. As the trough and associated frontal continues to pivot eastward, scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage, especially by tomorrow afternoon. /BT The trough and associated frontal boundary is progged to push through the CWA Thursday evening. Much drier, cooler continental air will push into the region. A tight pressure gradient across the area as high pressure building across the Midwest interacts with the departing frontal boundary will result in a period of breezy north to northeast conditions for Thursday night.
This evening: After a few hours of mostly sunny skies behind yesterday's cold front, overcast conditions have returned from the northwest. Thursday: Strong CAA will keep highs tomorrow near the freezing mark with another round of gusty northwesterly winds.
Wind gusts have been fairly variable, with Jamestown and Devils Lake still showing gusts in the low to mid 40 knots, and even some near advisory criteria speeds moving into portions of west central Minnesota.
(Thru Tonight) Strong cold front is sliding southeast across the region early this afternoon, stretching from far NW AR down into S central OK. Clearing skies by morning across far NE OK will likely result in freezing temps, but this area has already had a hard freeze so no headlines are planned.
(This evening through Thursday) Warm and breezy southerly flow earlier today has rapidly been transitioning to cool and gusty northerly flow this afternoon, as a cold front tracks through the region through tonight. Cooler overnight low temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s are expected, with Thursday's high temperatures only climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) A strong upper low over Manitoba this morning will have a broad trough extending southward down along the Rockies. This trough will drag across the plains today with high pressure building in from the west this evening and Thursday. A cold front will blow into northern counties before noon and pass to the Pecos River by evening. Tonight will see freezing temps across the northern counties but in areas that have already had a freeze. Thursday will be much cooler with highs in the 50s.
1125 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 (This afternoon through Tonight) Cold front pushing through NE OK this morning, with gusty north winds ushering much cooler air into that area behind the boundary. Winds will begin to relax this evening, with temperatures falling to the lower 30s across NE OK and NW AR under clearing skies.
344 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 An approaching cold front will provide rain tonight along with much colder temperatures Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Key Messages: 1) Gusty south winds followed by gusty northwest winds today as a cold front moves through. Winds: A cold front will move through the area from NW to SE today. Precipitation: Light rain will develop along and behind the front before it moves into the area as an upper trough and jet move into the region.
338 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 A cold front will return rain to the region for Thursday, with some scattered snow showers following the front.
The one exception being locations in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel where stratus is occurring ahead of an approaching cold front. However, wind gusts this afternoon may briefly approach 30mph in advance of a cold front, particularly across extreme NE Arkansas and the Bootheel. An upper low and surface cold front will advance east today bringing rain back to the forecast. The cold front is forecast to move through tonight with the bulk of precipitation occurring as post- frontal rain. A brief period of drier and cooler conditions are expected behind the front as high pressure builds in from the west.
After that, conditions are expected to remain VFR until showers associated with a cold front impact the terminals.
South winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front, wind shift, and a band of showers with MVFR cigs will reach CKV around 08Z and BNA around 10Z.
1030 AM MST Wed Nov 17 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Gusty winds will persist in the eastern plains of NM this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. A backdoor cold front will move southwest across the area today through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures going into Thursday.
204 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 A low pressure system spinning over southern Manitoba will slowly migrate into Ontario on towards Hudson Bay through tomorrow. Surface winds out of the northwest over the local region have ushered in cooler conditions.
202 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 A cold front will bring rain from west to east this afternoon and overnight tonight before clearing the area early Thursday morning.
BRB (Today and tonight) A cold front moving through northwestern Oklahoma will arrive to central sections just after sunrise and move through southeastern Oklahoma by late afternoon. By sunrise Thursday north winds will be light with the center of the cooler air mass over the Texas panhandle.
These mild conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours as southerly winds will continue to maintain this warmer, moist air mass in place -- just ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will sweep into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, bringing widespread rain showers during the morning through the early/mid afternoon and a much cooler air mass in its wake. However, Thursday will be one of those days where the high is likely to occur during the morning hours. Cold air advection will begin to take place in wake of the frontal passage and expect temperatures to drop off very quickly into the lower 50s by the late morning/early afternoon and into the 40s by the end of the day.
The forecast is on track with weak ridging over the area this morning leading to mostly sunny skies and generally light north-northeasterly winds across northern Arizona today.
Axis of ridge will move across the PacNW today, making for quiet weather through the next 24 hours. Moisture pushing in over the top of the ridge will allow high clouds to continue building heading into the evening, but will remain otherwise dry through at least Thursday night.
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 253 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 A strong cold front extending from MI southwest through southeastern MO and northwestern AR will continue moving southeastward.
1115 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Winds continue to gust across the FA, although the stronger gusts are still found across the higher elevations over central North Dakota. So far the period of reduction is fairly short as the snow showers are not very extensive, and have mainly been along and north of the highway 2 corridor. Stacked low pressure system will track across southern Manitoba today with its tight pressure gradient bringing strong winds to the region and some wrap around snow showers especially across NW MN this afternoon. Wind speeds this morning are gusting the highest across the Devils Lake basin with speeds generally from 40 to 50mph.
233 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 19z surface analysis and regional radar mosaics depicted cold front well east of the local area from near Gary,IN to just east of Decatur,IL, and then towards St. While some clearing of clouds will take place this evening and overnight, Thursday morning low temperatures should only drop a few degrees below freezing.
227 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 The surface pressure gradient will continue to relax this afternoon as the cold front that moved through the region this morning moves farther to the south. Surface flow will remain mostly northerly through tomorrow morning, resulting in reinforcement of cold air and highs only increasing into the low 50s on the Caprock and upper 50s to near 60s off the Caprock. GKendrick A low amplitude progressive upper level ridge will shift ESE tomorrow, followed by zonal flow through through the weekend. Upper level ridging across old Mexico will enhance the southern jet to our west and southwest.
245 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 The upper low continues to move across southern Canada, now into Ontario as of 20Z. This leaves a broad trough into much of the nation's midsection with low-amplitude ridging moving onto the Pacific coast. At the surface in the wake of the cold front, high pressure has been building in and north winds have been persistent with gusts still in the 25-35mph range for most of the area.
Brisk northerly winds will subside into the evening and overnight hours, setting the stage for a chilly night in the wake of today's cold front. Tomorrow, the longwave trough responsible for the front ejects eastward across the Great Plains and flow aloft begins to slacken. While overnight lows tomorrow night will trend warmer by a few to as many as 15 degrees, frigid wind chills may exist.
145 PM MST Wed Nov 17 2021 Drier air moved in fairly quickly late this morning into the afternoon behind the departing trough and cold front, giving way to clear skies. Models do show high clouds increasing Thursday as another Pacific trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, but thinking the cloud cover will hold off until late Thursday morning and afternoon, allowing low temperatures to bottom out well below freezing. The flow will turn more westerly as the Pacific Northwest trough moves inland and flattens the ridge.
1040 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Sfc analysis shows high pressure offshore the Carolinas producing an Easterly wind flow across the area. Cape (XMR) sounding this morning shows some increase in moisture in the low levels with a strong subsidence inversion just above 900 mb. This low level moisture layer is quite thin, so do not expect any measurable rainfall. Max temps look on track for the lower 80s, with a few mid 80s over the north interior where a little more heating should occur.
We are now behind the cold front that pushed across the area yesterday evening. Cold air advection from the north will keep temperatures much cooler than the past couple of days as well, with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 40s in most places.
Satellite imagery shows shallow ridge transitioning through the PacNW this afternoon. A few high clouds trying to spill over the top of the ridge into East Idaho, otherwise generally clear skies remain for most areas through tonight.
307 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 A cold front will move southeast across central Indiana late today and tonight. Trailing well behind the front will be a sharp upper trough.
Upper level ridging provides the dominant influence on the weather across the region, today. A northwesterly flow along the leading edge of the ridge favors continued cold temperatures.
High pressure tonight will bring clear skies and colder temperatures.
1245 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Aviation - Low Pressure Brings Rain Today then Snow Showers Thursday Upper trough amplifying across the Great Lakes region with surface cyclone tracking across the northern Lakes will bring rain along a surface cold front today, with heavier QPF, around a quarter to half inch, across the southern zones. Surface ridging and rising heights should end the snow showers Thursday night.
250 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Surface cold front was along a line from just east of KSTL to just east of KSGF. The cold front will push across most of the area from NW to SE this evening. Mid level forcing associated with embedded energy within the mean trof will catch up to and align more with the front by mid evening.
218 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 The upper level low spinning across Ontario will keep a trough extending across our eastern counties through this evening, with clouds exiting to the northeast.
225 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Strong northwest winds will continue through the night but the higher gusts that are mixing down with diurnal heating will abate around sunset. The low level thermal field is a touch cooler than today so highs appear as though they will be about 3 to 6 degrees cooler. A ridge of high pressure will move in from the west so winds will diminish through the afternoon, especially west of I-29.
200 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Scattered showers will end from the west this evening, as a cold front pushes through the region. At 19z a strong cold front stretched from Taylorville to west of Rantoul. Where skies clear earlier, lows at or below freezing are expected west of I-55, while where clouds hang on longer south of I-70 upper 30s are forecast. Cold advection continues Thursday as a 1030 mb ridge slides down the Plains. This yields highs several degrees below normal in the low/mid 40s.
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 As of 09z Wednesday, the cold front extended from southwestern Wisconsin into northwestern Missouri, just south of KMCI. The rain will come to an end a bit sooner than previously forecast, before sunrise on Thursday, so the lower levels will dry out before the colder air moves thus do not expect any snow to mix in before ending. So high temperatures will only be in the low 40s to low 50s, around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
High pressure across Western Washington will bring drier conditions to the region today.
Greetings from WFO MOB! Temperatures are sitting in the lower to middle 70's this morning with isolated to scattered showers remaining offshore to the southeast for the time being. An upper level ridge remains situated just east of the area, centered over the southeastern Bahamas.
1138 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Water vapor imagery has the upper-level closed low spinning across Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. The associated surface cold front will continue its passage this morning, bringing west-northwest winds and a drier, cooler air mass with it. The upper-level trough axis works its way across the Upper Mississippi River Valley tomorrow, with a slight ridge building into Thursday night. Flurries are again possible especially in our northern counties with the low temperatures.
1210 PM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Above normal temperatures are expected today with a passing warm front. A cold front will return rain to the region tomorrow. Late morning updates included adjustments to sky cover, mainly downward, as clouds break in the warm sector behind the warm front. The upper trough/sfc cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday, resulting in rain and slowly falling temperature.
A very mild, dry, and breezy day will continue ahead of an approaching cold front. /EC/ Prior discussion below: A high pressure ridge dominates the eastern seaboard of the CONUS this morning. with the highest winds this afternoon in southeastern AR and west central/northwestern MS. A cold front is on approach from the low moving into the mid Miss Valley today, and rain chances creep into the forecast overnight.