Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
305 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST VALLEYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST VALLEYS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER IOWA ENSUES. WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE SE.
317 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 The sfc pressure gradient, which tightened in the evening, will tighten even more after sunrise as a large scale low pressure system begins its curve northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Temps this morning and afternoon will remain far above average for this time of year ahead of an approaching cold front, in fact, temps should remain in the 60s in the ern half of the region through midnight.
732 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET DURING MONDAY AS OFFSHORE STORM REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN.
These southwest winds will bring warmer air into the region as highs warm mostly into the 70s.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE ONGOING FORECAST BUT HIGHS FOR THE AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT TO MENTION BOTH MOS GUIDANCES TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY MIN TEMPS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY BUT FALL SHY OF NORMALS FOR MAR 21.
WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE.
1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THIS LOW TRACKS ALONG TO THE NE TODAY. MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH MVG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BRING FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY.
1057 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET DURING MONDAY AS OFFSHORE STORM REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN.
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM PRODUCE SOME SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED HAIL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH COULD DAMAGE SENSITIVE VEGETATION. A FREEZING WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CHATSWORTH TO DAHLONEGA TO CLEVELAND LINE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VIGOROUS UPPER TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING TWD THE SE CONUS. A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD SE INTO THE NW GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF DEPARTING TO THE EAST.
1013 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD, ANOTHER DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THIS FIRST DAY OF SPRING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS SUCH, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. UPPER LOW WILL DIP INTO WEST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND PUSHES QUICKLY EAST AS SURFACE RIDING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE WARNING AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED NORTHERN ALABAMA YESTERDAY HAS ONLY MOVED AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER LOW WHICH FORMED ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH WE MAY HAVE VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
An mid/upper low continued to head down the MS River valley early this morning, as an inverted surface trof lurked over southwestern IN, keeping steady rain shower activity in place there. As the low moves southeastward across the PAH forecast area today, the surface trof will move generally southward in response, continuing to create a focusing mechanism for showers. Critical thicknesses associated with the low appeared to support some ice nucleation and therefore generation of light snowfall early this morning, as soon as temperatures near the surface get cold enough. Adding to the excitement will be steep mid level lapse rates associated with the mid/upper low over the region, which may produce some afternoon convective activity, including lightning strikes, over southwestern IN, southeastern IL and the Pennyrile region of KY.
/issued 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS extending up into the northern Rockies, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft. Monday, an upper-lvl storm system will start making landfall on the PacNW, flattening the ridge and nudging it east.
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS INTO THE AREA.
1021 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS REMAINED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AS NORTH TEXAS RESIDES BETWEEN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK.
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT WITH STRONG MIGRATORY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BEFORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AS A COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE APEX OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ALL OF THE WAY INTO WESTERN CANADA. DEPICTING THE RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD YIELDING A CONTINUATION OF THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE LOWER DESERTS. MIGRATE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST.
AND MONDAY THE IMPACTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FAR NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. THIS RESULTED IN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST.
NOT TO MENTION BOTH MOS GUIDANCES TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY MIN TEMPS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY BUT FALL SHY OF NORMALS FOR MAR 21.
WHILE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AROUND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NEAR CALM WITH LOWS DIPPING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHILE OTHERS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
SFC OBS DO INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. MODEL TEMP TIME HEIGHT GRAPHICS INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY FALL TO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY. A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. THUS EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE EAST TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST.
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BRINGS A WARM FRONT NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIGHT WITH NOT VERY MANY CLOUDS IN THE WARMING PATTERN. HEATING OF THE LOWER LEVELS WILL COMPENSATE A BIT FOR THE OTHERWISE SLOWER LOW LEVEL WARMING.
1148 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN RETURNING. LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE. WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU AND MID/UPPER CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMPENING LONGWAVE RIDGE BUT LATE DAY SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT UPPER 40S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC EVENTUALLY MIGRATES EAST. EASTWARD PUSH OF STRONG PACIFIC JET AND SOUTHERN DROP OF HUDSON BAY LOW WILL QUICKLY ERASE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SET UP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN IOWA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDED WELL NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SECOND LOW LOCATED OVER SWRN ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
806 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. LGT PCPN CHCS SHOULD INCREASE AS AN UPR TROF APPROACHES THE RGN LATER TODAY. THOUGH THE COLDER TEMPS IN RIDGES SE OF PIT SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY LGT SNOW. THE CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHCS FOR LGT RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVE. THOUGH ONLY LGT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT WHERE COLDER TEMPS AND PREDOMINANTLY LGT SNOW IS EXPD. ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY MON MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS.
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WL MOVE EWD ACRS THE CWA/MSA. COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA TO THE LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ) WARMER MONDAY AFTN OWING TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south this morning. The first day of spring is a little cooler than the past week. 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AROUND THE TROF WITH 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
1231 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH THE COLDER TEMPS IN RIDGES SE OF PIT SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY LGT SNOW. THE CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHCS FOR LGT RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVE. THOUGH ONLY LGT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT WHERE COLDER TEMPS AND PREDOMINANTLY LGT SNOW IS EXPD. ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY MON MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS.
THEN BREEZY AND COOLER FOR MID WEEK. RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 DEGREES OF WARMING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE EAST.
ONE LAST GASP OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5500 FEET MONDAY AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALES AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A LONG-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER COME MID-WEEK. MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE CWA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CLOSED LOW PASSES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO FALL NEAR FREEZING.
711 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low currently over the region will continue to slowly drop swd. For portions of central MO where more breaks are possible, have trended slightly warmer, tho still below guidance. Tilly First forecast concern is threat for widespread sub-freezing temps in our region for early Monday morning. Timing of the RIDGE turning light winds from the southwest should be late enough to allow the vast majority of the Watch area to achieve a freeze, with central MO being the least confident area but still high enough to convert the entire Watch to a Warning.
Satellite imagery/surface obs show considerable stratus and stratocu will circulate cyclonically through the CWA as a closed upper low exits eastern MO today. Due to the light winds, clear skies and dewpoints in the 20s expect to see subfreezing temperatures over the region. Blooming plants and budding trees in area south of the MO River will be susceptible to these freezing temperatures so will go ahead and issue a freeze warning for late tonight into early Monday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD AND ENERGETIC PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REPLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY POSITIONED ACROSS UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING. WARMER AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT AS IT ADVANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. BIG CHANGES WILL REACH UTAH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
Southerly winds may begin to develop in parts of eastern OK late Sunday night, but likely not soon enough to keep temps above freezing. South winds will increase Monday with much warmer temperatures and dew points remaining very low.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15Z MONDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS.
ALTHOUGH 12Z MFL SOUNDING SAMPLED STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER. /ISSUED 811 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ADVANCING ON EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHEREAS WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL HAVE MELTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DEEPER INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ EARLY THIS MORNING THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AROUND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NEAR CALM WITH LOWS DIPPING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHILE OTHERS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
Tranquil weather will prevail across the central High Plains through tonight as an upper level ridge of high pressure currently extending from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin moves east toward the High Plains. Temperatures will be warmer today in the face of weak low level warm advection and increasing thickness values over the area. This should help keep temperatures from bottoming out too low with lows in the low/mid 30s expected. On Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten out, leaving the central Plains under west northwesterly flow aloft.
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR TODAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
1053 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IN THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE WILL REACH TAMPA BAY AROUND 15Z AND FORT MYERS AROUND 18Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST.
835 AM MST SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BEFORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AS A COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE LONGITUDINAL AXIS SUBJECTIVELY ALIGNING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 60 INLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING A BIT COOLER. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AM HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAKENING OVERNIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS IN OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
/ISSUED 912 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ Except for a couple of stragglers beneath the low clouds in far northwest Arkansas that are sitting right at 32 degrees this hour, observation sites across the region have warmed above freezing this morning so the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire on time. Southerly winds may begin to develop in parts of eastern OK late Sunday night, but likely not soon enough to keep temps above freezing. South winds will increase Monday with much warmer temperatures and dew points remaining very low.
1148 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF PRECIP TO THE AREA HAS FINALLY SUNK SOUTH TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.