Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
728 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA AREA PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERN KY WILL BE MEET WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST OVERALL KEEPING DEW POINTS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SE OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
732 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 155 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/SC BORDER, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PIVOTING S/SE AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER/AN UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO COME ASHORE IN THE PACNW. GRADUAL CLEARING IS THE EXPECTED TREND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVECTING SEWRD, USHERING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ARE PLEASANT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS ARE CONTINUING TO DROP WITH NRLY FLOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S ATTM.
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Mostly clear and dry conditions expected to continue tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Cooler temperatures of late with northwesterly flow aloft will be countered by more southerly winds on the western side of the ridge axis. The wind shift should keep overnight lows warmer than last night. Above normal temperatures will close out the weekend, as high pressure slides east of Illinois and southwest flow brings a surge of warm air into the region.
920 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 75 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 74 50 75 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 74 51 75 / 10 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 71 47 72 / 10 0 0 10.
701 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP WITH TIME TONIGHT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS A LACK OF MOISTURE CONTENT PREVENTS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS FROM DOING MUCH OUTSIDE OF PRODUCING CLOUDS AND DROPPING TEMPS.
BUT WITH H5 RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BOOSTING THICKNESS ADVECTION. AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH. AS A WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT. STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EASTERN ND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT.
806 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Windy conditions will be common tonight, and may be accompanied by rain showers, with the passage of a fast moving cold front.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS MOVES E. TWEAKED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER. ESPECIALLY IN THE NE AND E WHERE IT LOOKED MORE POSSIBLE FOR COOLER TEMPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
1020 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
655 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING TO JUST A MIX OF FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S COAST TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTION LEVELS LATE TNGT/SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND CROSSING OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
This trough forced a weak cold front southeast across Missouri overnight.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL HEAD AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. TAKEN WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE RESULT OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES VERIFYING ON THE HIGHEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN IS THE CASE THIS MORNING.
THIS IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE WEST SIDE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ANY POWER LINES THAT CROSS OVER RIDGES MAY SEE DOWNED TREES OR LINES. WITH THIS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS VARY FROM COMING ASHORE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO TO CAPE BLANCO. OF COURSE THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW(S) WILL MAKE VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS DROP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES AND THE HIGHER I-5 PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
However, this will all come to an abrupt end on Sunday as an approaching cold front moves across the Northern Rockies. While bearing some similarities to recent cold fronts, this one is a bit slower, has a little less wind aloft to work with and despite a fairly impressive surface pressure pattern and temperature gradient, should translate to less potential for damaging wind gusts (i. However, gusts to around 40 mph are still expected on Sunday from mid morning through the afternoon as the cold front passes through the region. However, there's little evidence to support much more than a few inches of accumulating snow over the highest pass, Lost Trail, due to poor timing of heavier precipitation and falling snow levels.
535 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF NOT ALL THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING. AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW NORTH OF I-80. ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF COAST STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
905 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 35 63 41 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 35 56 37 / 20 30 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 35 56 37 / 30 30 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 33 53 33 / 60 60 0 0.
Afternoon highs today will generally be in the upper 70s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Increasing cloud cover tonight will limit radiational cooling resulting in morning lows mostly in the mid 50s, around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. A stout EML will advect east over the low level moisture.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND THEN OUT BY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE RATHER THAN A REALISTIC RESULT.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
1006 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 Forecast remains on track this morning with high pressure in place over the area. High pressure is in place across the area this morning, but will weaken some as a wave tracks across the the TN valley and into the Carolinas late this afternoon into tonight. Given that, leaned toward the warmer side of guidance for high temperatures this afternoon with forecast highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
530 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND THEN OUT BY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE RATHER THAN A REALISTIC RESULT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO STAY AT BAY AT KTYS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Very mild temperatures were observed early this morning across the region, with 2 AM readings in the mid to upper 40s, with a few spots still in the low 50s. Readings should fall a few more degrees before sunrise, settling into the low to mid 40s. Despite the passage of a very weak cold front this morning, temperatures will again be quite pleasant today, with highs in the 60s with light northerly winds. Winds will become easterly and then southeasterly overnight tonight, as high pressure pushes east of the area. Southerly flow and rising heights will help push temperatures into the low 70s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas, despite an increase in mid and high level cloud cover.
633 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING IN QUITE THE CHILLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE AROUND 00Z SUN OVER NEPA. EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. MODEL SHOW THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS. A VERY TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATE.
557 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT COMES IN SUNDAY MORNING SUPPORTED BY A COLDER AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE INLAND.
WITH CLOUDS A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT AND SHORT RANGE MODELS TRENDING COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BUT THE SNOWY NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 30S AND THE SOUTHWEST IN THE UPPER 40S.
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO NW ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN MS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO INDIANA. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER THERE. REGARDLESS HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING WITH A DRY COLD FRONT.
949 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPS IN SPOTS.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAIL A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO MIDLAND TEXAS. THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STRONGER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATE TOMORROW RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SPELLS OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ZONE SHIFT SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA.
737 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
WARMER. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
1043 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING TO JUST A MIX OF FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY.
602 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS FINALLY BEING REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY COMING ON SHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TODAY, AND PEAK ON SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY CAUSING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANGES ON THE WAY WITH COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
544 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHRTWV TROF MOVG INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL SEE H5 HEIGHT RISES OF 100-110 M TODAY AS THE SHRTWV RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DEVELOPS EWD. THE 08Z SFC ANALYSIS INDCD A RIDGE AXIS FM SW NEB INTO ERN SD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 50 EAST TO THE LOWER 60S FAR WEST.
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET CIRRUS PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS.
AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA AROUND DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW NORMAL MID-JUNE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS GEORGIA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SLOW RETURN TO MORE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST. HIGHS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGHER PWATS AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEST OF I-65 ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE LIFT SOURCE AS TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW.
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A lee trough will allow southeast winds to keep good moisture in place. The Lower Trans Pecos and northern Permian Basin will be the focus into the evening hours as storms will potentially grow upscale as they move east.
1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the east coast as an upper level trough remains over the western U.
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THEY NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT/S VERSION.
202 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
201 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS RATHER FLAT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. 0 TO 3 KM MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES UP TO 500 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KTS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
This feature will shear out with time as it runs into the western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern U.
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST - THE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP A CONFLUENT AND FAIRLY FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL BE IN CONTROL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE, THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE CONTROLLED BY DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 MAIN SWATH OF ONSHORE FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST TODAY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE YUCATAN NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS OF TRACK/STRENGTH.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE WEST BEGINNING WED WHICH WILL HELP PUT A KIBOSH ON AT LEAST ORGANIZED AND/OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WEAKNESSES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY HAVE A SHOT AT PUSHING INTO WEST TX WITH THE AID OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CERTAINTY IS LOW HOWEVER AND DEPENDS ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE REACHES.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX. A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID- LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING. SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
228 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CRUSHING THE MARINE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEPING A JUNE GLOOM PATTERN AT THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY. A STRONG MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
WITH BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. DEEP, RICH MOISTURE RIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SW GA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PERHAPS LOOKS MORE LIMITED TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BULGE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING LOWER PW VALUES AND GREATER STABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NHC IS NOW INDICATING A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.