Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 A weak north-south warm front has been inching eastward most of the night but has stalled west of I-35. Another thing to watch is whether freezing drizzle can develop in the warm sector (western and southern MN) as ice is lost aloft with the dry slot and/or temps aloft warm above freezing.
A variable breeze around the western dial through the period as high pressure nestles in across the region. Late day western cirrus may ride in along the (exiting) backside of the eastern CONUS upper trough axis. /ISSUED 328 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ Southeast Texas will see some high clouds stream across the area from the southwest and west over the next couple of days as a mid/ upper level low lingers around the Baja Peninsula. After another cool start to the day (3 AM temperatures range from the low to mid 30s inland to around 50 along the coast), look for warming daytime high temperatures today and Monday as surface winds come back around to the west and southwest.
429 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 A weak north-south warm front has been inching eastward most of the night but has stalled west of I-35. Another thing to watch is whether freezing drizzle can develop in the warm sector (western and southern MN) as ice is lost aloft with the dry slot and/or temps aloft warm above freezing.
High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend and into the mid- week period.
957 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 A strong upper level trough and accompanying surface cold front will cross the Carolinas early this morning. High pressure will build into the area and extend across the region through Monday.
1028 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 A long wave trough axis extends south down the Appalachians and reaches deep into the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front which blasted through the Florida Keys yesterday has stalled over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Current temperatures are only a degree or two above the lows this morning which were 55 to 60 degrees.
These mid clouds may clear fast enough by late in the day to allow for some sunshine before another s/wv and sfc trof axis bring another round of clouds to the area late this afternoon into this evening. Southwest winds, gusty between 20 and 25 mph, will boost temperatures into the lower to mid 30s for highs. High pressure will briefly build in to begin the day on Monday. Next in the series of short waves moving through the mean trough will pass across the region early in the period.
Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure nosing back into the region for the southwest.
Stagnant high pressure will continue to bring stable conditions today through much of the coming week. Low clouds and areas of freezing fog will be common across many valleys with minimal diurnal temperature change.
A subtle eastward displacement in the strong blocking ridge pattern over the western CONUS will lead to a reduction in the northwesterly flow aloft and thus result in lighter sfc winds today. However, models indicate an increase in northwesterly wind speeds across the northeast corner of the CWA late this afternoon through this evening in response to falling pressure in advance of a weak pressure surge and slightly cooler, moist air racing south through ern Wyoming. High temps on the plains today as much as 21 deg F above average, and anywhere from 8 to 15 deg F above average in the high country. The high mtn valleys will again be the slowest to warm beneath a shallow layer of very cold, nearly saturated air. Strong ridge of high pressure will remain parked over the Western U.
Expect an upper synoptic pattern characterized by a mean trough over the ERN CONUS and ridge over the WRN CONUS (GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs.
625 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region today through Monday night with temperatures well below normal.
Mild afternoons, cool mornings, and dry weather will prevail as high pressure continues to hold its regime over the west coast. The challenges continue to be overnight lows as interior valley temperatures are subjected to cold air drainage while ridge tops over 1000 feet experience warmer temperatures. Models continue to show the ridge holding strong with a couple of disturbances trying to break it down.
upper level high pressure is centered over California with weak upper level low pressure over the eastern Pacific to the west of Baja. This low pressure system will spread some high clouds into southwest California into Monday.
Tonight another inland freeze is expected, with the lowest temperatures in the upper 20s across the Suwannee River Valley under the low level ridge axis. Farther north and east, an more elevated pressure gradient is expected which will result in slightly more turbulent mixing and thus warmer temperatures as a lee side trough axis down the Appalachians this morning pivots SSE over the local area.
727 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region today through Monday night with temperatures well below normal.
500 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Clear and frosty, but jsut a bit warmer than yesterday's big chill. Winds are calm now and will be Southwesterly for today with high pressure rotating winds clockwise around it's center down over the Texas coastal bend.
406 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, while a trough persists over the east. Strong upper ridging will result in another warm and dry day today, with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.
/issued 314 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ Today and Monday will be much warmer than the last several with afternoon temperatures ranging 12 to 20 degrees above mid-December normals.
Tonight, good radiational cooling conditions will be present over southern sections, where light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall near or slightly above the freezing mark. Lows in the upper 30s to 40 degrees are expected farther north in the Big Country where mixing southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will keep temperatures warmer.
Fairly quiet and dry weather is expected through this week as high pressure remains parked across the Western United States. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle 70s across the lower deserts.
/Issued 334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ Synoptic setup over the CONUS this morning showed a continued ridge of high pressure west of the Rocky Mountains to the West Coast and a longwave trof axis over the East Coast. These conditions will aid in afternoon temperatures climbing into the low/mid 60s for much of Eastern Oklahoma with upper 50s/low 60s possible for Northwest Arkansas. Winds should subside Monday night as the trof axis pushes southeast through the region.
524 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Warmer weather will spread into the region today and Monday as highs top out in the 50s both afternoons. An upper level trough will dive south through the region Monday sending a front south through the area.
921 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today and tonight.
618 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today and tonight.
638 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 The cold front is passing through west central Illinois and central Missouri at this time. Model consensus has the cold front exiting our southeastern counties by 12Z and the last of the precipitation behind the front exiting by 15Z. There's a wide area of stratocu extending north into Iowa and Minnesota behind the cold front. Gusty northwest flow will bring much cooler air to the region and highs are only expected to hit the low 60s in most locations.
601 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 /12Z TAFS/ A strong cold front is quickly moving south across the forecast area and is approaching the Interstate 10 corridor. /issued 340 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is quickly moving south through the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than we we have seen the last couple days, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s. Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 40s, although a few low lying areas and river valleys may drop into the upper 30s.
Looking at soundings for tonight, appears like there will be an inverted-v sounding in the low levels at IWD and CMX.
Temperatures across the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington, and the Northern Blue Mountain Foothills of Oregon have mostly risen above 32 degrees. The Pacific Northwest will be under a flat upper level ridge today and tonight.
Thin high clouds were moving from west to east, which should not do much to inhibit temperatures from dropping outside the low clouds are fog area. Temperatures tonight are still expected to drop to near freezing or freezing across most of the area with the exception of the coast and Umpqua Basin so a Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory continue until 9AM.
1042 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 High pressure will remain over the area today. A cold front will move through the region Monday evening.
1020 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 High pressure across the region will bring dry weather today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and Monday, bringing a chance of rain.
1030 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Aviation section updated A cold front will cross Indiana by evening. A high pressure system developing behind it should extend from Texas to the Ohio Valley by Monday, then show little change for several days.
As of 15/11Z, the cold front had pushed through all terminals with gusty north winds persisting at all sites this morning. /issued 259 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ As of this writing a fast moving cold front has moved very near the I-20 Corridor with a solid 25-35 mph sustained post-frontal wind. Tstms that initiated in SE NM/NW PB earlier have mostly expanded/moved e in wake of the cold front. Into the weekend the mid level flow changes as a mid/upper low seemingly is cutoff and holds up across NM or AZ.
Expect drier air to begin filtering into northwest Georgia by tomorrow morning with cooler temperatures and clearing skies from northwest to south and east.
Gusty NW winds behind the fnt wl bring much cooler and drier air into the state.
Small area of high pressure near Grand Forks at 08z. Calm wind and clear sky over the NE ND into far NW MN has allowed temps to drop into the lower 20s. Upper level northwesterly flow aloft through the first half of the week will allow for a short wave trough to pass through the region Monday. This will likely have weak associated surface features, so the passage of a dry, weak cold front/trough is possible.
Cold front beginning to make it's way into se Tx and this time. A cold front currently extending from NE Texas to the Big Bend region will continue to progress south and east throughout the day and move through the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail despite the frontal passage as shower and thunderstorm activity should remain scattered in coverage along the cold front.
However, should see winds pick up again on the mtn ridges and higher east slopes of the Front Range overnight as the 600-500 mb northwest flow increases with mid-level warm air advection strengthening the mtn top stable layer. Temperatures aloft would support even warmer temperatures, but we're into the season where the surface cold pool will take a while to heat up and we're no longer realizing full mixing even on a sunny day. Dropped lows tonight expecting similar conditions, with lows 5-10 degrees warmer than they are this morning.
1128 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Skies are mostly cloudy late this morning ahead of cold front now moving into the lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 52 69 46 / 70 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 51 65 42 / 60 80 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 49 66 42 / 70 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 62 37 / 40 80 10 0.
Temporary chill down behind this system for today into Monday under digging mid CONUS upper trof, then the mean steering flow looks to flatten again for a temp moderation back above normal as the week progresses. Robust cool advection ongoing from the northern plains today to keep highs in the 50s, thus most sites will have been warmer overnight than they will be during the day after frontal passage. The brisk winds will also relax as the afternoon progresses with progressive low pressure migration into the northeastern GRT LKS. Looking at what upstream sfc temps are doing under clear skies in the central plains, lends credence to H85 MB cool ridge rule supporting widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s tonight. Highs Monday will be in the low 60s, with northwest flow aloft.
900 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 High pressure across the region will bring dry weather today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and Monday, bringing a chance of rain.
1002 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 High pressure over the area will weaken rapidly through today. A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic tonight followed by a return to high pressure early in the week and hold through the end of the week. On the bright side, literally, satellite pictures do indicate mostly clear skies west of the Blue Ridge, aside from a patch of clouds acrpss the Potomac Highlands. Cloudier will mean cooler as well. Much cooler Mon and Mon night. Winds diminish Mon night under building high pressure. While its center will wobble some, high pressure will remain squarely over the area through the end of the week. A weak/decaying cold front will pass through New England late in the week, which will turn winds to the north, but otherwise have little moisture or thermal contrast.
High pressure will build into the region for the first part of the week, bringing a warming trend.
The models quickly develop a thermal ridge on the cntl and nrn High plains. This warming aloft will cause h850mb temperatures to rise into the high single digits by late afternoon. Warm and dry conditions associated with a building flat upper level Central Rockies ridge will prevail for much of the upcoming work week.
A cold front currently extending from NE Texas to the Big Bend region will continue to progress south and east throughout the day and move through the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail despite the frontal passage as shower and thunderstorm activity should remain scattered in coverage along the cold front.
No more severe storms are expected early this morning as the air has become more stable near the cold front. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue just north of the surface cold front. Rest of today, clearing skies with decreasing surface winds will make for a much cooler and drier day. Model guidance highs mainly in the 60s seemed reasonable, about 10F below average and 20-25F cooler than yesterday. A steep low level inversion will allow for considerable temperature differences around 10F between valleys and ridgetops.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with trough dipping down into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest into British Columbia, with trough over the midwest into the central plains. Upper ridge over the western United States meanders towards the east bringing dry conditions and a warming trend to start the week with above average temperatures.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day and this evening as a cold front approaches the area. The upper ridge over the region will weaken and shift southward today as an upper trough moves from the northern plains into the Ohio Valley tonight. An associated cold front will move southeast into the southeastern states by this afternoon and across the area tonight. Increasing deep layer moisture ahead of the front combined with increased forcing as the upper trough and front approach will create scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and early evening. A drier and cooler airmass will begin to move into extreme northern zones early Monday morning in the wake of the cold front.
Low pressure continues to track northeast across Lake Michigan and Northern Michigan early this morning. Light rain and areas of drizzle will continue for areas mainly along and north of Interstate 90 early this morning thanks to moisture wrapping around the back side of the low. We will have an increase in cloud cover this evening in the 6-12 kft layer as a weak upper trough moves through. We are not expecting any precipitation with this feature with drier air near the surface and high pressure edging in from the west. Thinking we will cool into the 30s and possibly upper 20s in cold favored spots, but we won't see these cooler temperatures until later in the night thanks to the batch of clouds moving through.
717 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Aviation A deepening low pressure system will track through Lower Michigan today.
A cold front will move through the terminals this morning, swinging winds around from the north and increasing in the afternoon. Cigs will improve later in the period as drier and cooler air reaches the terminals. Minor coastal flooding continues this morning as we near the peak of the high tide cycle. Main short term focus is on a cold front moving through Texas this morning. Drier air moves in overnight, clearing our skies and ushering in cooler air with lows tonight and highs Monday below normals for mid-October.
There have been a few reports of waterspouts already this morning due to cloud lines south of the Lower Keys and light to gentle winds. The Key West radar is showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly south of the Lower Keys at this hour. The long wave pattern over the United States is becoming more pronounced with a vigorous upper low trekking eastward out of Canada, and across the Great Lakes Region today. This low will usher a front across the Central Plains and into the Deep South through Monday night.
A Pacific trough will bring increasing clouds and winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for precipitation to parts of the area later in the week. Given the impacts wind gusts this high may may have on the lakes, will hang on to the Wind Advisory until expiration time at 2 PM.
High pressure is building into the region. BMickelson A little cloudiness along the Montana/North Dakota border will slide east early this morning giving way to mostly sunny skies although near to slightly below normal temperatures as the back side of a departing upper level trough still remains close enough to eastern Montana to provide some influence. Upper level ridging is expected to build across the west starting on Monday which will maintain dry weather conditions and begin a warming trend in temperatures with the associated height rises.
The focus for today will be the low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region. While one system exits, another moves in, as a trough moves across Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Arrowhead to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Trough axis at 00Z was from Manitoba Canada southward into eastern CO. Those clouds will clear and northwest winds should decrease as the surface pressure gradient decreases and high pressure builds over KS. During the day Monday, high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds increase. That will bring in noticeably warmer air, with highs mainly upper 60s and lower 70s.
Dry weather will continue through Monday as high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level ridge will provide for warm and dry conditions. Expect south-southeasterly winds around 10-15 mph to help push temperatures into the low 60s in the valleys.
955 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Forecast updates are with light convection moving through AR as the cold front and upper lift moves east. Also, temperatures will not warm much over northern AR, while tempered in central areas, as the cold front brings good cold air advection to AR on the northwest elevated winds. Hence, upper 50s to lower 60s north, 60s to lower 70s central, while daily highs over the south will be before the cold front cools temperatures down. Gusty NW winds behind the fnt wl bring much cooler and drier air into the state.
Temperatures will trend 10 to 15 degrees cooler today behind a cold front that moved through New Mexico overnight.
/Today through Tonight/ Main 500mb trough axis is moving over central Iowa at this time with the 250mb jet departing the area and placing Iowa under an area of subsidence. Behind this front, much cooler and drier air is being ushered in on strong, gusty winds from the northwest. The sky will be clear with subsidence continuing on the backside of the departed trough and ridging starting to move in overhead.
A cold front will be approaching today, and showers ahead of it will move into the TAF sites between 23Z and 01Z, with MVFR vis/cigs likely.
Strong cold front had recently passed southeast of Lawrence county and currently extended from 998 mb low pressure along the Quebec and Ontario province line, to the southeast side of Indianapolis and approaching Evansville and Paducah. Strong WNW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph was ushering in much cooler air today. For all of the week, high pressure will keep conditions dry.
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 A breezy cold front was moving southeast across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX and southwest AR this morning, generating isolated to scattered showers /and perhaps a few thunderstorms/ as well as producing post-frontal BKN-OVC VFR-MVFR CIGS. /issued 239 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ Approaching cold front draped across sern OK making quick sewd progress this morning. This general trend is fcst to continue, as the associated trof continues to dampen and the system encounters the relatively dry airmass in place across our area. Any ongoing convection associated with the cold front will come to an end before midnight tonight, and this will virtually be the end of our chances for rain for quite a while.
1115 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 A cold front over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states approaches today and passes through late tonight.
After some chilly early morning temperatures the highs today are expected to climb only into the 60s based on the 850mb temperatures at 00z Monday. Given the good agreement on where the lighter winds will be early Monday morning along with clear skies, and dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s will favor undercutting the cooler guidance for low tonight east and south of Dodge City. Temperatures may even be a couple of degrees cooler in a few isolated locations which may lead to isolated pockets of frost.
Northwest winds continue at a fairly good clip, 15-20 mph in some spots, but the trend has been downward with high pressure nudging into western Nebraska. Downslope WNW winds today should allow for temperatures to rebound to the lower 60s by late afternoon.
Temperatures are cooler and winds much lighter compared to 24 hours ago. Temperatures will trend up a few degrees thru mid-week with valley highs in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure will continue to sink south from the Atlantic waters into the Bahamas today allowing for easterly flow to relax across South Florida. Most of the higher POPs will be concentrated over the interior and west coast this afternoon. The high pressure will slowly weaken over the Bahamas into Monday as a cold front makes its way into the Florida Panhandle.
1051 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Cold front beginning to make it's way into se Tx and this time. A cold front currently extending from NE Texas to the Big Bend region will continue to progress south and east throughout the day and move through the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail despite the frontal passage as shower and thunderstorm activity should remain scattered in coverage along the cold front.
Weak circulation embedded within an inverted trough has pushed onshore the Treasure Coast this morning. Rain chances will lower along the coast into the late afternoon as sea breeze and inverted trough shift westward. High pressure ridge axis will remain north of the area as an inverted trough containing a small vortex along the Treasure Coast shifts westward across the area.
Temps are falling through the 30s, with some 20s across north central SD under the ridge axis.