Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered showers over portions of South Florida this afternoon as a cold front pushes south and washes out across the area. Due to the slower progression of the frontal system today, we bumped up high temperatures for today over the southernmost parts of the state, which could now see max temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The possibility for showers remain in our forecast for tomorrow as a developing inverted trough interacts with the remnants of the stalled frontal system, with the best chances for showers over the Atlantic waters and east coast during the morning and early afternoon.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1034 mb ridge of high pressure over the Mid-South. High pressure will continue to settle over the Lower Mississippi Valley into Sunday with precipitation free weather and continued moderation of temperatures. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night with temperatures in the teens near the MO/KY border and lower to middle 20s elsewhere. Short term models indicate a weak cold front will drop into the Mid-South Sunday night. The next chance for precipitation may come back next Sunday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
Dry cold front is expected to move through the region on Sunday, though models are hinting at the potential of stratus behind the front.
Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will prevail today ahead of a cold front expected late tonight. /Issued 321 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ An upper level short wave trough was moving southeast through northern Montana this morning. An upper level jet will move down the back side of this trough and it will help to sharpen this positively tilted wave as it swings through the Plains. The short wave trough will then move across the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight into Sunday morning.
Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast, then highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s.
12Z GFS/Euro/GEM all have some very light QPF with a cold front sweeping through the region Wed. Expect to see skycover improve by this evening as the low level moisture dissipates.
Winds will trend northwest and increase to 10-15 mph after midnight, as a weak dry cold front makes progress across SW KS. An associated positively tilted trough will swing across the plains through the day, accompanied by modest cold air advection. A progressive and positively tilted upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains through Sunday night.
245 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure brings drier air into the area this weekend and temperatures warm for Sunday.
255 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Southwesterly flow will increase tonight as a warm front lifts north through the area within increased pressure gradient between exiting high pressure to the east and an approaching clipper low pressure system which will reach Lake Superior tonight.
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. while the next cold front takes shape over the Plains. The Plains cold front will slowly approach from the west on Sunday, resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient and decreasing winds. Thanks to southwesterly flow and ample sunshine early on, high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 30s. As WAA continues ahead of the cold front and the boundary layer moistens from snow melt, low clouds will develop across the area Sunday evening. Time-height cross sections indicate sufficient lift within the moist layer to support a period of freezing drizzle along/near the boundary. Once the front passes and winds veer to the northwest, the threat for freezing drizzle will end from west to east overnight.
A weakening cold front is slowly marching towards our area and is currently situated roughly south of Lake Okeechobee and extends southwest into the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Once this front pushes through, model soundings indicate that the lowest levels will remain quite saturated and could see either a low stratus deck develop over the waters north of the island chain or even some patchy fog.
1215 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough will move east of the region late today. High pressure will build into the state for tonight and Sunday with mainly clear skies and light wind. A sharp/compact mid and upper level trough axis was located across the Delaware River Valley at midday and 925-850 mb temps right in the favorable thermal ribbon for dendritic snow growth of -12 to -18C was leading to occasional flurries from the thin, but cold bkn-ovc strato cu cloud deck occupying most of the CWA to the northwest of the I-81 corridor. Sunday is dry and a warmer day, too. Much of the area will get close to, or over freezing.
323 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough was moving off the Mid Atlantic and Southern new England Coast late this afternoon. High pressure will build into the state for tonight and Sunday with mainly clear skies and light wind. Surface-850 MB ridge over Eastern Ohio will build east across PA tonight, bringing diminishing wind and clear, very cold conditions. The larger metro areas in the Lower Susq Valley should see lows right around 10F. 8H temps rebound back to around -5C Sunday afternoon and surface temps across much of the area will get close to, or a few deg F over freezing. A 5-8KT southerly breeze on the back side of the ridge Sunday afternoon will put a slight nip in the air that will be 3-5 deg F below normal high temps in most places.
1017 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 As of around 10AM, the weak cold front is just passing through the Treasure Coast as it makes its way into southern Florida. However, will see a reduction in high temperatures this afternoon due to increased cloud cover and breezy northerly flow, with temperatures generally in the low to mid-60s, with low 70s possible along the Treasure Coast. Increasing low level moisture convergence, especially near the north end of the trough axis (NEFL between JAX-XMR) will support increasing coverage of showers from the Atlantic shoreward. Overnight temps will be cooler, but not overly so, ranging from L50s inland north to L60s SE coast.
Skies overnight will be clear, but winds are forecast to be slightly stronger than what we saw this morning, so low temperatures Sunday morning should be a few degrees warmer. An upper level trough is forecast to track across the Great Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front into the Big Country by early afternoon, and through most of the rest of the area by late afternoon/early evening. The cold front will serve to reinforce the cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 across the Big Country, to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
850 temps per area 12z raobs are some 10-15 degrees warmer than those of 24 hours ago, which has helped in a pretty quick warmup despite lingering snow cover. A little warmer overnight lows are expected as snow cover impacts continue to diminish along with slight southerly winds in place. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Quiet and warmer weather will prevail this upcoming week. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Quiet and warmer weather will prevail this upcoming week.
High pressure will build across the region for drier conditions through Sunday.
625 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
409 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern ND, with warm front well east of the region and nearly stationary arctic boundary lying to the north of the area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern half of the US, with a ridge along the west coast. Wind direction and froude values generally support the most snowfall potential over the higher elevations of the northwestern Black Hills, O'Neill Pass to Cheyenne Crossing to near Terry Peak, where a few inches of snowfall is looking likely.
324 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Rather quiet across the area today with mainly zonal flow aloft as we sit between an approaching trof from the northwest and a departed trof to our east. Tomorrow the next trof aloft comes through the area during the day. At the sfc we can expect breezy, northwest winds at around 15-20 mph with higher gusts, as well as cooler temps in the 40s and increased cloud cover. While this trof looks to be a dry one for us, a couple models do hint at some QPF around the region, which could result in a few flurries, though none are in the forecast at this time. Behind this trof we briefly enter northerly flow aloft with slight ridging passing over which then turns us to more northwesterly flow.
/NEW/ /Now through Sunday Night/ High pressure is sliding eastward this evening and southerly winds have returned.
High pressure keeps us dry and clear tonight. High pressure will keep VFR conditions and light winds prevailing through the period. High pressure will be over the region tonight and tomorrow. Elsewhere, lows will be mainly in the lower 20s. With WAA starting tomorrow, temps will be warmer with highs mainly in the upper 40s and near 50.
Under mostly sunny skies, the temperatures have had the chance to rise above freezing today with most locations in the mid to upper 40s across South Texas. Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight which will drop temperatures to near freezing; the inland Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country will fall below freezing tonight, prompting a Freeze Warning. This and the mostly sunny skies will allow us to warm even further Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Those along the coast will be in the upper 50s as cooler water temperatures will make warming up take just a bit longer. Temperatures will stay above freezing Sunday night.
900 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
600 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure brings drier air into the area this weekend and temperatures warm for Sunday.
A cold front will approach from the north during the pre-dawn hours, with LLWS developing at all terminals during the early morning as northerly winds increase just off the surface. A cold front will enter the northwestern zones a bit before dawn Sunday and then move quickly southward with north winds becoming breezy by late morning. However, the air mass behind the front is really no cooler than the pre-frontal air mass, and the result will be high temperatures Sunday very near those of this afternoon, or 5-10 degrees cooler than average for the date. A persistent northwesterly flow regime aloft will encompass the region for most of the upcoming week, as the CWA remains between stout ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean and broadly cyclonic flow across the eastern two-thirds of the U.
327 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 The short term period begins with an upper level trough that has swung winds across the northern portion of the area to the NW made them quite breezy as a few sites have gusted to 30 knots. Those outside the remaining snowpack have warmed into the 50s (Red Willow and Norton counties may make a run at the lower 60s). Sunday, a back door cold front associated with a low over the northern Great Lakes moves through the area early Sunday. This will result in cooler temperatures again returning to the area as high temperatures are expected to be about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
357 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Second clipper system to bring another round of snow tonight, followed by cooler and breezy conditions Sunday. This could bring for some freezing drizzle potential, although sinking air behind the cold front limits confidence in this potential. Cooler temperatures will be found behind the mentioned cold front with highs only in the single digits in the northeast to the still mild upper 30s southwest.
A dry cold front will move in late in the period, shifting winds to the N/NNW at DRT by about 21Z.
A cold front will surge southward into the area as the second disturbance moves into the Dakotas. There is thin layer of higher moisture in the low levels behind the cold front however, and expect a layer of lower ceilings/stratus clouds to develop/move into the Sandhills and northern Nebraska overnight tonight and linger through the first half of Sunday. Upper level ridging will persist along the west coast through the coming week. Downstream of the ridging across our area expect persistent dry northwest flow aloft to continue. Temperatures will average above normal all week, even behind a couple of week cold fronts.
Clear skies and light and variable winds are ongoing this afternoon as Arctic high pressure slides eastward across the region.
IR imagery showing a weak cold front dropping southward through central CA at this time spreading increased high clouds southward into out area. As the frontal boundary pushes southward, an offshore gradient will develop and result in some gusty easterly winds over the mountain ridge tops through Sunday evening.
00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions and light to calm winds are expected through the TAF period at all sites as high pressure settles over the region. Meanwhile, a period of westerly flow aloft will become re-established across the Lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a positively tilted longwave trough dropping through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Temperatures will quickly fall this evening as the boundary layer decouples with low temperatures bottoming out in the low 20s to upper teens by daybreak Sunday morning. This will yield a rather large diurnal temperature curve as cold morning temperatures rebound into the low to upper 50s during the day.
Second clipper system to bring another round of snow tonight, followed by cooler and breezy conditions Sunday. This could bring for some freezing drizzle potential, although sinking air behind the cold front limits confidence in this potential. Cooler temperatures will be found behind the mentioned cold front with highs only in the single digits in the northeast to the still mild upper 30s southwest.
223 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 For tonight, northwesterly winds aloft will transition to more of a northerly flow by Sunday morning ahead of a building ridge over the western U. The models show weak mid/upper level QG subsidence over the region through the day on Sunday behind a weak trough axis that will slide south across Colorado this evening. In the mountains, the best orographic component will be late this afternoon and evening with decent northwest winds at ridgetop. Across the plains, a weak cold front will push into Denver around midnight, then a secondary front moves in Denver by 10 am Sunday morning. Temperatures will be 8-10 degrees cooler than today's highs.
808 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build into the state tonight and Sunday. Early evening satellite loop shows lingering cu/stratocu rapidly dissipating across the Laurel Highlands, as high pressure builds into the state and boundary layer cools/stabilizes. Further south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles.
12Z GFS/Euro/GEM all have some very light QPF with a cold front sweeping through the region Wed.
529 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Rather quiet across the area today with mainly zonal flow aloft as we sit between an approaching trof from the northwest and a departed trof to our east. Tomorrow the next trof aloft comes through the area during the day. At the sfc we can expect breezy, northwest winds at around 15-20 mph with higher gusts, as well as cooler temps in the 40s and increased cloud cover. While this trof looks to be a dry one for us, a couple models do hint at some QPF around the region, which could result in a few flurries, though none are in the forecast at this time. Behind this trof we briefly enter northerly flow aloft with slight ridging passing over which then turns us to more northwesterly flow.
548 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites tonight with north winds in its wake. An upper closed low off the coast of Baja Cali will make it's way east later tonight with the progression of an upper trough digging across the Rockies today. Breezy winds will diminish tomorrow afternoon as the upper level positively tilted trough continues to swing east, absorbing the closed low coming across northwest Mexico.
700 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A broad upper trough resides over the eastern half of the nation tonight as an embedded closed low above the Deep South moves to the Carolina coast by daybreak. opening into a short wave trough. A low or trough forms on the potion of the front off the FL east coast Sun morning.
510 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Sunday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday night.
S/SW winds will gradually veer to the NW after 06Z as a weak cold front moves into the region, then continue veering to the N/NE by 15-18Z. (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper levels have zonal flow over TX and NM today with a trough coming down over the Northern Rockies. This trough will move down across CO tonight and through NM Sunday as a ridge spins over the West Coast. A weak front will blow into the area early Sunday but temperatures are expected to end up a few degrees warmer than today so should be more of just a wind shift to the north.
Our region will remain in dry westerly flow aloft ahead of this trough thru tonight. At the surface, the center of the cold anticyclone was over the Northeast, with a ridge axis extending southwest clear down to the TX Gulf Coast. Low pressure was centered over the Dakotas ahead of the digging trough. Short term guidance has trended warmer for overnight lows and have followed suit. Lacy (Tomorrow through Saturday) Quiet and warmer weather will prevail this upcoming week.
Low pressure of 1013 mb currently over central MN will move across the nrn Great Lakes during this time. As the low shifts east of Lake Superior tighter pressure gradient relaxes later in the night with more of a trough axis evolving across the area. Should see some lower level thermal ridging into the early afternoon hours before a trailing cold front starts to move through in the later afternoon and evening hours. Cold advection and low level thermal troughing sets up later Sunday night.
559 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build into the state tonight and Sunday. Early evening satellite loop shows lingering cu/stratocu rapidly dissipating across the Laurel Highlands, as high pressure builds into the state and boundary layer cools/stabilizes. Further south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles.
High pressure has kept cool, dry air in place across the region today. Northerly winds will slacken some overnight and temperatures will fall into the lower 20s. With the change to more southerly flow, temperatures will make the climb back into the low 50s on Sunday as mostly sunny skies continue.
A negatively tilted trough, currently diving over the Northern Rockies, will continue to progress southeasterly tonight. The best punch of dynamic forcing will drop into the forecast area around midnight tonight, along the left exit region of the trough's trailing jet. However, mountains may be slightly cooler tomorrow, as these elevated towns will be settled within the cold airmass left in the wake of the passing trough. High pressure beginning to build back over the Great Basin will lead to mostly clear skies Sunday night.
These low clouds are north of a subtle warm frontal feature that will lift northward across Se Mi this evening. Southwesterly flow will increase tonight as a warm front lifts north through the area within increased pressure gradient between exiting high pressure to the east and an approaching clipper low pressure system which will reach Lake Superior tonight.
303 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure has kept cool, dry air in place across the region today. Northerly winds will slacken some overnight and temperatures will fall into the lower 20s. With the change to more southerly flow, temperatures will make the climb back into the low 50s on Sunday as mostly sunny skies continue.
235 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern ND, with warm front well east of the region and nearly stationary arctic boundary lying to the north of the area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern half of the US, with a ridge along the west coast. Wind direction and froude values generally support the most snowfall potential over the higher elevations of the northwestern Black Hills, O'Neill Pass to Cheyenne Crossing to near Terry Peak, where a few inches of snowfall is looking likely.
This will help generate an inverted trough over northeast Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters. The increased cloud cover over the Big Bend will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 40s while clear skies may allow lows in SE AL to drop to near freezing.
700 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend, with a milder afternoon on Sunday.
With a temperature inversion in place across the snow-covered ground, there is a bit of concern for brief, light freezing rain. Better chances for light snow across the area arrive after midnight, on the backside of the low as the whole profile cools. A cold front will move through tonight after highs today soared into the 30s to 50s. The rest of Sunday looks dry, breezy and cooler, though still right around climo norms in the east and well above across central SD.
Cant rule out some patchy fog/ freezing fog ovr parts of central and SE AR. Still expecting a chilly night with lows in the teens and 20s, so patchy ice will remain a concern with moisture refreezing during the late evening and overnight hours.
/issued 252 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1034 mb ridge of high pressure over the Mid-South. High pressure will continue to settle over the Lower Mississippi Valley into Sunday with precipitation free weather and continued moderation of temperatures. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night with temperatures in the teens near the MO/KY border and lower to middle 20s elsewhere. Short term models indicate a weak cold front will drop into the Mid-South Sunday night. The next chance for precipitation may come back next Sunday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
221 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Fairly quiet conditions are expected through this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving low-level trough currently stretching from western Lake Superior into the central Great Plains. Otherwise, persistent SW winds gusting up to 25 mph will bring in milder conditions as temps rise to near freezing. Thermal profiles show that ice nucleation will be hard to come by within any low-level cloud deck, supporting freezing drizzle mixed with light snow.
115 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
Ongoing tranquil conditions will continue throughout the period despite an upper level trough of low pressure pushing southeast across the Western High Plains today, ushering a weak attendant front through western Kansas. Slightly cooler air will filter southward into western Kansas today in wake of the weak frontal passage this morning, dropping H85 temperatures a little below 0C across central and much of southwest Kansas.
/Tonight/ Sfc ridging remains anchored from the Mid-MS Valley SW into E TX this evening, with the short term progs in agreement with this ridging lingering over the area tonight, before easing E of the region after daybreak Sunday. Light winds and a clear sky will result in good radiational cooling overnight, with temps expected to continue to fall well below freezing, although a bit "milder" than what was observed this morning (in the lower to mid 20s).