Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main warm front is set up well to our south in the southern plains through lower Mississippi Valley. In the end, most of the day should be dry, followed by clouds, somewhat cooler temperatures with showers toward late afternoon. Details: Wednesday night through the weekend: A stormy pattern with a deep trough in the southern Rockies, sw flow aloft and a nearly stationary frontal boundary across the area.
Tonight & Wednesday: Tonight: Expect a quiet overnight as any residual rain showers linger along a northward lifting warm front across the Mid-South. The area will remain on the western edge of any departing zonal flow aloft & southerly flow from low-mid level ridge over the southeast & Florida Peninsula. With thermal profiles increasing into the low-teens @ 925mb, near normal highs are expected in the low-mid 80s.
528 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 The zonal flow pattern will remain in place across the lower 48 during this short term period. Temperatures will be just a bit cooler up north due to the increase in clouds.
541 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Current surface obs and Visible Satellite loop across the region shows some low stratus clouds hanging on across portions of western Nebraska with cooler temperatures observed compared to areas further west.
Temperatures have been cooler than recent days, remaining in the 60s in the high country including Flagstaff which is the first time this month that we didn't hit 70 there. On Wednesday, increase southwest winds will continue with highs a degree or two cooler than today.
Impacts will vary greatly from south to north across area terminals as a warm front is slated to lift north through 13/18z. Winds will become srly, areawide, through Wednesday afternoon as the warm front moves north.
841 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week. With high pressure passing just south of the CWA overnight, a clear sky and diminishing wind are expected.
945 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 The gusty southeast winds across western North Dakota should temper a bit late this evening as the lower levels moisten and momentum transfer becomes less of a factor. Currently, broad ridge across the Northern Plains with an embedded S/WV impulse pushing east into the Dakotas above a baroclinic zone. Some light snow was reported earlier far southwest where sfc temperatures were only in the low/mid 30s.
1016 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure extending across the region will slide east by Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s there. Temperatures will warm into the lower 60s for most of the area. In the evening, a warm front will lift northward and the threat of showers will translate west.
Skies will average mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the interior to the lower 70s along the Brevard coast and Treasure Coast.
The next trough seen approaching the coast on water vapor imagery will move inland tonight and bring another round of showers to the area on Wednesday morning.
528 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge building into the northern plains with disturbed zonal flow extending westward into the eastern Pacific. Surface analysis shows large pressure gradient across the western Dakotas with lee trof advancing eastward. Edge of low clouds aligns well with warm front beginning to lift into southwest Campbell county. Wednesday, frontal boundary lifts through the cwfa with breezy northwest winds and much warmer temps (60s to lower 70s).
1028 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Currently - A strong high pressure system centered near the mid Atlantic coast is producing fresh northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Meanwhile, lower level ridging extends across Florida, resulting in substantial warm and dry air above 850 mb. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Strong high pressure across the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic will be responsible for fresh and gusty northeast to east breezes through the night on Keys waters.
Warm front will continue to focus the chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for Johnson and Natrona Counties.
Prior discussion below: Tonight & Wednesday: Tonight: Expect a quiet overnight as any residual rain showers linger along a northward lifting warm front across the Mid-South. The area will remain on the western edge of any departing zonal flow aloft & southerly flow from low-mid level ridge over the southeast & Florida Peninsula. With thermal profiles increasing into the low-teens @ 925mb, near normal highs are expected in the low-mid 80s.
Highs today will range from the lower 50s east, where showers/ cloud cover will linger the longest, to the lower 60s southwest, where conditions will clear earlier. A compact closed low will drop down from Canada late tonight, bringing another shot of scattered showers mainly in the northern half of the forecast area.
Temps will be held back some in the east underneath thicker cloud cover/precip chances while warmer aftn readings will be possible west.
As we've talked about the last few days, a warm front draped over central MS will start to pull northward today and as it does, so will the rain. Temperatures should also respond, especially south of I-40, which will spend more time south of the warm front today.
The zonal flow pattern will remain in place across the lower 48 during this short term period. Temperatures will be just a bit cooler up north due to the increase in clouds.
114 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer and more humid weather will gradually return through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
204 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front lifts northward today and tonight. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region today and tonight, providing some showers. This front represents a major shift in the pattern, with the cooler upper level trough being replaced by much warmer ridging.
135 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will extend over the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Wednesday, then move offshore to near Bermuda through the end of the week. Heights increase aloft on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds to our east. Highs will range from the mid-60s over the northern Piedmont to the low 70s in the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. The overall pattern late this week will feature high pressure centered offshore NW of Bermuda.
334 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 As of 08Z Wednesday morning broad southwesterly midlevel flow was overspreading the Plains ahead of a longwave trough. North of the warm front, an expansive stratus deck remains stationary across much of OK, KS and adjacent portions of MO, NE, and CO. This low stratus deck combined with isentropic ascent provided by a 25-40 LLJ should allow for patchy drizzle through the remainder of the night. By tonight, the aforementioned warm front will surge northward into portions of northern KS with an attendant 850 mb front across southern NE.
204 AM MDT Wed May 13 2020 07z surface analysis had low over southeast WY with warm front into eastern MT and trough from eastern MT into IA. Trough will be the focus for afternoon convection as it intersects the higher terrain and interacts with 250-750J/kg MLCAPE. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer.
1147 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 A warm front accompanied by dry air is currently across Colorado this afternoon. The RAP model shows this fog affecting the highlands with lower visibility than the valleys. Continued warm air advection, increasing cloudiness and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night would suggest the short term model blend would be the preferred forecast tool vs the cooler guidance blend.
219 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania Wednesday.
The upper level low will remain off the coast with a west to southwest flow across the forecast area.
Beyond that, cigs will gradually recover from south/north behind the intruding warm front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 81 62 84 / 10 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 54 81 61 83 / 20 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 53 81 60 83 / 30 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 51 78 56 81 / 40 20 20 0 20.
Expect improving conditions by Wed afternoon as SRLY flow increases with a warm front lifting north of the state.
FGC Previous discussion: Areas of rain will continue to spread northeast across the region through tomorrow with low clouds and cooler conditions.
Low pressure moving to the north of the state will bring light shower activity to northern Nevada each day this week.
A warm front looks to move northward becoming positioned from northern KS into IA tonight. Temperatures look to be quite a bit warmer tonight (Wed night) versus previous nights (and even days!).
Temperatures will again be at or a little warmer than yesterday with daytime highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s in the north to the mid 80s in the south. With clouds and moisture in place, overnight lows will be rather muggy with readings in the mid 60s west to the lower 60s east.
441 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer weather will return over the next several days, but the chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase.
1234 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week. With high pressure passing just south of the area overnight, a clear sky and diminishing wind are expected.
/Issued 927 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020/ Warm front, currently located just south of the Red River this evening, will begin to lift north overnight.
1111 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania Wednesday.
140 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will bring dry and sunny conditions for today.
1149 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure and clear skies will sustain ideal radiational cooling tonight. The high pressure and dry air will sustain light winds and clear skies through Wed morning. Deep layer anticyclonic flow will translate over the Lower Peninsula for the balance of the overnight hours supporting strong high pressure approaching 1030mb in the Detroit area by 12z; the all-time record for May being 1036mb.
147 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania Wednesday.
1029 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge building into the northern plains with disturbed zonal flow extending westward into the eastern Pacific. Surface analysis shows large pressure gradient across the western Dakotas with lee trof advancing eastward. Edge of low clouds aligns well with warm front beginning to lift into southwest Campbell county. Wednesday, frontal boundary lifts through the cwfa with breezy northwest winds and much warmer temps (60s to lower 70s).
1242 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front lifts northward today and tonight. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region today and tonight, providing some showers. This front represents a major shift in the pattern, with the cooler upper level trough being replaced by much warmer ridging.
324 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Temperature today will further moderate with building high pressure, resultant insolation, and weak warm advection.
141 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure extending across the region will slide east by Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift northward across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s there. Temperatures will warm into the lower 60s for most of the area. In the evening, a warm front will lift northward and the threat of showers will translate west.
Winds will be light and mainly out of the east until the warm front slowly lifts northward.
The high pressure ridge centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast. This ridge has put GA in Warm moist easterly flow and will see temps increase significantly over the next few days.
325 AM PDT Wed May 13 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures continue through Thursday.
Increasing high pressure into the weekend will lead to warmer temperatures and highs once again reaching near 100 degrees.
A warm front will pass through the forecast area bringing much warmer temperatures to the area.
Most of the CAMs favor this solution, with the highest rain chances across the northern half of the area.
This activity is associated with a weak H5 trof wobbling across the ArkLaMiss. Rainfall amounts should be rather light through daybreak, and then precipitation should slowly shift Nwrd along the warm front through the day.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500 mb short wave trough that generated showers and thunderstorms north of our CWA last night, has moved northeast of the area. A weak mid-level ridge will build over the region today and should provide some quiet weather. Brownsville radar shows a few streamer showers developing off the lower Texas coast early this morning. The next 500 mb short wave trough approaches from the west tonight.
These potentially severe storms would develop as the low-level jet ramps up in the vicinity of a warm front draped across the center of the forecast area.
620 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer weather will return over the next several days, but the chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase.
932 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front lifts northward today and tonight. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region today and tonight, providing some showers. This front represents a major shift in the pattern, with the cooler upper level trough being replaced by much warmer ridging. Warm front will lift north across the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow, along with building upper heights, will create a nice warm up, with high temperatures on Thursday possibly reaching the lower 80s in some locations.
As we've talked about the last few days, a warm front draped over central MS will start to pull northward today and as it does, so will the rain. Temperatures should also respond, especially south of I-40, which will spend more time south of the warm front today. Fully south of the warm front by Thursday, we will likely see the start of a stretch of 80+ degree days we haven't seen in 7 months as weak ridging begins to develop across the south. This ridge will be the key to our rain potential starting Thursday, too.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue today into tonight as high pressure remains in control. /issued 427 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500 mb short wave trough that generated showers and thunderstorms north of our CWA last night, has moved northeast of the area. A weak mid-level ridge will build over the region today and should provide some quiet weather. Brownsville radar shows a few streamer showers developing off the lower Texas coast early this morning. The next 500 mb short wave trough approaches from the west tonight.
Temps will be held back some in the east underneath thicker cloud cover/precip chances while warmer aftn readings will be possible west. Can't rule out an instability shower or two Thursday afternoon given the proximity of the mid lvl wave to our north, but most areas should be drier and a bit warmer.
This low will continue to bring upper level disturbances through Oregon for the majority of today, so we'll have another day of widespread showers. Showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday as the trough axis swings through Oregon. Potential instability should increase as cooler air moves in aloft.
As of 08Z Wednesday morning broad southwesterly midlevel flow was overspreading the Plains ahead of a longwave trough. North of the warm front, an expansive stratus deck remains stationary across much of OK, KS and adjacent portions of MO, NE, and CO. This low stratus deck combined with isentropic ascent provided by a 25-40 LLJ should allow for patchy drizzle through the remainder of the night. By tonight, the aforementioned warm front will surge northward into portions of northern KS with an attendant 850 mb front across southern NE.
541 AM MDT Wed May 13 2020 07z surface analysis had low over southeast WY with warm front into eastern MT and trough from eastern MT into IA. Trough will be the focus for afternoon convection as it intersects the higher terrain and interacts with 250-750J/kg MLCAPE. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer. Trough will be the focus for diurnally driven showers/TS Thursday afternoon/early evening, especially near the Black Hills given terrain influence and enhanced low level moisture convergence.
High pressure for Thursday will deliver drier and warmer temperatures as large scale subsidence takes hold across the region.
A warm front, currently draped across far north Mississippi, will continue to slowly drift to the north through the morning hours. Weak ridging will be in place tonight through the first half of Thursday resulting in a brief dry period. As broad ridging across the southeast states shifts east on Thursday, moist southwest flow aloft will gradually return.
Behind this feature near the NM/AZ border is a secondary, much more pronounced shrtwv trof which is forecast reach the W CWFA between 18Z-21Z. After the excitement ends, we are expecting a quiet night and a much warmer day tomorrow. The low-level thermal ridge will expand into the far E zones tomorrow afternoon where 850 hpa temps are expected to reach 27C-28C resulting in highs in the M/U 90s for most locations. A couple of storms will be possible mainly over the higher terrain where weak upslope flow will be present. Models continue to indicate a deepening 500 hpa trof west of the CWFA transitioning to a closed low as it moves into C TX by this weekend.
710 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
Showers end overnight, with fair and warmer weather for Thursday.
504 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
1030 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 An expansive high pressure system centered west of Bermuda reaches well to the southwest across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
The front will lift back north as a warm front early Thursday, with a ridge of high pressure building over the region through the weekend.
Behind this feature near the NM/AZ border is a secondary, much more pronounced shrtwv trof which is forecast reach the W CFWA between 18Z-21Z. After the excitement ends, we are expecting a quiet night and a much warmer day tomorrow. The low-level thermal ridge will expand into the far E zones tomorrow afternoon where 850 hpa temps are expected to reach 27C-28C resulting in highs in the M/U 90s for most locations. A couple of storms will be possible mainly over the higher terrain where weak upslope flow will be present. Models continue to indicate a deepening 500 hpa trof west of the CFWA transitioning to a closed low as it moves into C TX by this weekend.
809 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Temperature today will further moderate with building high pressure, resultant insolation, and weak warm advection. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
Weak high pressure will build into the region during this evening with a decreasing shower trend.
1021 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s areawide today.
Breezy to windy conditions today, as the pressure gradient tightens between strengthening high pressure off of the Carolina coast and a stalled front across the Florida Straights. Mariners need to start monitoring the forecast as we expect for a low pressure system to develop to our east this weekend and based on its strength and track, the local forecast will need to be adjusted as new model guidance is analyzed.
557 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front lifts northward today and tonight. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region today and tonight, providing some showers. This front represents a major shift in the pattern, with the cooler upper level trough being replaced by much warmer ridging. Warm front will lift north across the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow, along with building upper heights, will create a nice warm up, with high temperatures on Thursday possibly reaching the lower 80s in some locations.
333 AM PDT Wed May 13 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures continue through Thursday.
These cigs will hold in the 5-10kft range through much of the morning before gradually recovering from south/north behind the intruding warm front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 59 81 62 83 / 40 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 53 80 60 83 / 30 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 53 80 60 83 / 30 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 51 77 55 80 / 50 20 10 10 10.
The high pressure ridge centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast. This ridge has put GA in Warm moist easterly flow and will see temps increase significantly over the next few days. 01 Temperatures will begin to climb this weekend into the 80s and low 90s across the area as high pressure builds off the Atlantic coast. Winds out of the ESE will gradually become more southerly as the ridge builds and deepens. Models indicate that a tropical system will move into the Atlantic this weekend and will aid in breaking down the ridge. As the system moves out over the Atlantic, a new ridge moves toward the coast as a strong low pressure moves into the gulf.
Highs in the lower to mid 70s are still expected near and south of the TN river.
/Issued 419 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ A warm front just south of the Red River at this time will begin to lift more rapidly to the north this morning. A few showers and thunderstorms may still develop this morning north of the advancing warm front, but most places will remain dry. By this afternoon, the warm front should move north of the entire area, with a few peeks of sun allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
419 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A warm front just south of the Red River at this time will begin to lift more rapidly to the north this morning. A few showers and thunderstorms may still develop this morning north of the advancing warm front, but most places will remain dry. By this afternoon, the warm front should move north of the entire area, with a few peeks of sun allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Breezy to windy conditions by midday, as the pressure gradient tightens between strengthening high pressure off of the Carolina coast and a stalled front across the Florida Straights.
Highs today will range from the lower 50s east, where showers/ cloud cover will linger the longest, to the lower 60s southwest, where conditions will clear earlier. A compact closed low will drop down from Canada late tonight, bringing another shot of scattered showers mainly in the northern half of the forecast area. The upper low should move through quickly, with a low chance of precipitation lingering in the James River Valley through Thursday afternoon. Otherwise it should be a nice day, with clearing skies and widespread highs in the low to mid 60s.