Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1047 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Summary: Very cold tonight and tomorrow with wind chills approaching dangerous levels late tonight, then struggling to get above freezing tomorrow afternoon. Persistent cloud cover along with northerly surface flow should keep temperatures below freezing for most of the region tomorrow afternoon (with southern Oklahoma / north Texas being the exception as temperatures warm into the mid 30s).
Gusty north winds combined with temps in the lower 20s are producing wind chills in the single digits across parts of NE AR and the MO Bootheel. Expect below normal temperatures to continue through the forecast period as the mean upper trough continues across the eastern US which will result in cold air being replenished across the region from time to time.
This will result in highs hovering in the low to mid 20s today for our area.
There is less fog tonight than last night at this time, but there is still a chance for the low clouds to descend and become fog through the night. Freezing rain is possible, especially in southeast Oregon, as the precipitation begins, and the latest model guidance suggests that the chance is increasing. Upper level trough will come in from the Gulf of Alaska Thursday and Thursday evening and begin to break down the low-level inversion.
1233 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure continues to maintain VFR conditions across the area and light SSW winds during the day.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the ern U. With the wind, freezing spray will continue to be a problem for this forecast period. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243>251-264>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162-240>242-263.
218 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Much colder weather persists through the end of the week as strong Canadian high pressure settles over the Midwest.
1246 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Cold dry weather will occur into the weekend as a high pressure system slowly translates from the Great Plains to Upper Midwest to southeast Ontario. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows with generally clear skies and light northerly winds will see temperatures drop to the lower teens.
Large scale trough continues to swing through the area during the day today with leading area of vorticity. Lake induced troughing shifts better low level moisture and lake-induced CAPE down towards the tear drop of the lake by 12z this morning. A reduction of shear and a better convergence of low level winds as the aforementioned trough moves through is noticeable allowing for the single band setup across the southwestern portion of Berrien county into a portion of LaPorte county during the morning hours as denoted by the omega banding and low level moisture.
Temperatures today will top out in the upper teens to mid 20s, but with breezy north winds the maximum wind chills are forecast to be in the low to mid teens.
For the Winter Weather Advisory, there are a lot of indications that there will be a decent chance at freezing rain across the area, beginning in the evening through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings strongly suggest the predominant precipitation type being freezing rain, however can't rule out sleet being an issue as well. Local Winter Weather Advisory guidance gives room for sleet as a precipitation type (which it should be at times tomorrow evening in many locations) as well as minor to moderate impacts to commerce and travel, which should also happen just based on the freezing rain and sleet portions of the precip.
1149 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Weak low pressure will pass to our north late tonight as it brings an Arctic cold front through Thursday morning.
357 AM MST Thu Jan 20 2022 Key Message: - Dense fog this morning El Paso County Upper trough axis will continue to translate southeastward with light snow showers ending across southern CO early this morning. Should see some increasing high cloudiness with lee troughing across the I-25 corridor. This should keep MinTs warmer for the lower eastern slopes tonight as cold air recedes to the east.
411 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the area through Friday and then push off to the south over the weekend. With a subtle ridging pattern replacing this trough, subsidence aloft will be promoted.
The upper trough has cleared the Four Corners, and will dig through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico through tonight.
High pressure will finally shift east of the area on Friday allowing weak WAA to get underway.
713 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure was centered near Sisseston as a light south- southwest wind has developed over E ND and NW MN. High pressure will be over eastern ND at 12z with light winds.
Next, as a warm front lifts through the area, look for a wintry mix of precipitation to track from west to east this evening into the overnight hours. Some of the precipitation will fall as freezing rain per forecast soundings showing an elevated warm nose, supported by multiple ensemble members.
Temps are not forecast to go above freezing anywhere until Sat, though the wind chills are expected to slowly improve during that time. As a result, lows should rebound into the lower 20s (upper teens north). The Quad State region will remain in a cyclonic mainly northwest flow aloft through the period, as an upper ridge remains along/near the west Coast and troughing continues east of the Rockies.
Today Through Friday Night Early this morning, clouds continued to be prevalent over much of the area, though the lower deck thinned out over northern and central Arkansas. Pressure gradient remains tight between departing frontal boundary which is approaching the central gulf coast and Arctic high pressure edging into Arkansas from the plains, and as a result, winds remain elevated. Strong cold advection has brought temperatures down into the teens north to near 30 central and close to freezing south. In fact, there's a good chance portions of the Little Rock metro will stay below freezing this afternoon. High pressure will settle into the region tonight. Cold temperatures will continue Friday and Friday night, with the high remaining over Arkansas for the time being.
High pressure will be over eastern ND at 12z with light winds.
720 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Building high pressure should support very cold and mostly dry conditions through this weekend. Morning radar imagery suggests precipitation across northern WV waning as a cold front advances farther away from the region. In cold nwly flow and upper troughing, lake enhanced snow showers are impacting nrn portions of the forecast area, including the PGH metro. Despite generally light wind; apparent temperature values in the single digits to below zero are anticipated, especially tonight, with lowest values in the higher terrain. The focus for this portion of the forecast will be the continued very cold conditions as broad high pressure maintains a period of dry weather.
By early Friday morning the high will be centered over the Upper Midwest with the ridge axis extending into Oklahoma and northern Texas. A larger scale trough will move across the southern Plains late this afternoon/evening which will help remove the cloud cover.
Look for strengthening offshore winds in the higher terrain of the Bay Area heading into late week with warming daytime temperatures. Otherwise, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to build toward the coastline through late week. Given the dominate high pressure aloft, dry weather conditions will prevail through the foreseeable future.
Large scale trough continues to swing through the area during the day today with leading area of vorticity. Lake induced troughing shifts better low level moisture and lake-induced CAPE down towards the tear drop of the lake by 12z this morning. A reduction of shear and a better convergence of low level winds as the aforementioned trough moves through is noticeable allowing for the single band setup across the southwestern portion of Berrien county into a portion of LaPorte county during the morning hours as denoted by the omega banding and low level moisture. Either way, high pressure moves in for this afternoon ushering in drier air and lowering inversion heights helping lake effect snow to slowly taper off by as late as Friday morning.
Temperatures early this morning range from the lower 20s north of the I-20 corridor to the upper 20s and lower 30s along the I-10 corridor. Have highs in the 32-35 degree range but we may struggle to even reach the freezing mark for most of the day. Radar mosaic does show some increasing returns across the lower Trans Pecos and Edwards Plateau.
As the high moves south into Iowa, winds will become southerly this afternoon, though generally less than 10 mph. Forecast highs for today will range from the teens into the low 20s, although there is still some concern over cloud cover over the more western counties preventing temperatures from getting quite that warm. Tonight and into Friday, although temperatures will be warmer, winds will also be a little stronger, so wind chills of -5 to -15 degrees are quite possible once again. The first will be a low moving east across southern Canada, with a trough that extends all the way south into central Nebraska. The second involves an area of low pressure that will dig south through Utah and into the desert Southwest Friday.
642 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the area through Friday and then push off to the south over the weekend. With a subtle ridging pattern replacing this trough, subsidence aloft will be promoted.
349 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure will be over eastern ND at 12z with light winds.
510 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 (12Z TAFS) MVFR cigs will prevail most of the day all terminals until the upper ridge passes. The upper trough has cleared the Four Corners, and will dig through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico through tonight.
Also previously issued a special weather statement emphasizing patchy black ice formation across mainly elevated surfaces, bridges, overpasses, and secondary shaded roadways through morning hours today. Temperatures should remain below freezing across entire mid state through at least morning hours today.
and Friday Arctic high pressure was centered along the eastern Dakotas/MN border early this morning. Highs should reach the single digits above zero west to the lower teens east.
Therefore have kept sunny/clear skies in the forecast through the morning hours on Friday, at which point the high pressure cell shifts to the east and high clouds start spilling over an upstream upper level ridge. Have made minimal changes to the going temperature forecast with little variability to the lower tropospheric airmass expected until early Friday morning once the high centroid passes to the east and weak southerly WAA ensues for the day.
By tonight the ridge will be overhead with gusty north winds becoming light and variable. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s, 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today's highs. Byrd Latest deterministic, as well as ensemble, model runs are indicating that the upper level ridge over the western U. This trough will deepen and slide south into the Desert S.
Patchy freezing fog may occur early this morning. Today through Friday night Some Patchy freezing fog may occur during the early morning hours. Areas across eastern White Pine County will see a trace to half an inch in valleys, with 1-2 inches in the higher mountains. With current confidence on the lower side, day shift will re-evaluate later.
Trofiness remained over the area this morning per the water vapor channels. Northerly flow today as this trofiness pushes east.
As a result, should see highs rise a touch warmer than yesterday in areas west of I-29, with values currently forecast to climb into the upper teens to lower 20s. Sfc pressure gradient tightens heading into the overnight period as a fast moving low pressure system dives southeastward across central Canada into the Northern Plains. However, can't rule out the possibility of seeing locally higher amounts occur, especially in areas of higher elevations - so have totals around an inch possible across the Buffalo Ridge.
The cold front associated with this system looks to reach the I-70 corridor by late Friday morning into the early afternoon with the central mountains being favored through the afternoon, dropping to the southern areas by Friday evening before this system fizzles out.
904 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the area through Friday and then push off to the south over the weekend. This lower stratus will erode and some fair wx cu will likely form around the edges of what leftover stratus is found this afternoon. With a subtle ridging pattern replacing this trough, subsidence aloft will be promoted.
213 AM PST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure will result in generally light winds through today, outside of breezy conditions along the Sierra crest this morning.
Ridge axis from high pressure in the northwestern Atlantic extends back to Florida, and will drift southward through the day. (Previous Discussion) The Atlantic ridge axis will extend westward across the southern (Treasure coast) waters as a cold front pushes southeast into the FL panhandle.
234 AM PST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure will continue until Friday and allow continued chances of morning Tule Fog.
Snow is expected to move from west to east, with the best snow chances targeted for the higher terrains.
Yesterday's warm front has lifted well to the north of the area early this morning with a weak upper ridge axis near or just east of the Cascades. The ridge will shift to the east, allowing an upper trough and cold front to swing through the area today.
511 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Much colder weather persists through the end of the week as strong Canadian high pressure settles over the Midwest.
Discussion: As of 3PM this afternoon cloudy and cold weather conditions are being observed with many locations near or below freezing. High pressure to our northwest will continue to sink south tonight and on Friday bringing tranquil weather conditions to the area. While the cold front has pushed much of the deep layer moisture to our east, low level moisture should continue to promote mostly cloudy skies for tonight and a good portion of Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the teens to lower 20's north of I-40, and into the low to mid 20's generally south of I-40. Temperatures on Friday will likely be similar to today or maybe only a degree or two warmer.
1110 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Much colder weather persists through the end of the week as strong Canadian high pressure settles over the Midwest.
Otherwise it will be a cold day as northerly winds keep temperatures fairly steady through the day in the lower to mid 30's. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 36 22 43 / 30 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 22 33 19 40 / 70 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 20 34 17 40 / 30 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 18 31 12 37 / 70 10 10 10 0.
1047 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Building high pressure should support very cold and mostly dry conditions through this weekend. In cold nwly flow and upper troughing, lake enhanced snow showers continue to impact portions of the forecast area, including the PGH metro. Despite generally light wind; apparent temperature values in the single digits to below zero are anticipated, especially tonight, with lowest values in the higher terrain. The focus for this portion of the forecast will be the continued very cold conditions as broad high pressure maintains a period of dry weather.
1101 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Much colder weather persists through the end of the week as strong Canadian high pressure settles over the Midwest.
244 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Sunny and cold conditions were found across the area this afternoon as an arctic high pressure was centered just west of the area.
Trough from the northwest will bring snow to our mountains and snow mixing with and changing to rain in the valleys as warmer air mixes out the inversion. Colder wind-sheltered valleys in eastern Oregon will have a chance of light freezing rain before changing to all rain. Winter weather advisory for several inches new snow, and/or light freezing rain, will be continued through the daylight hours in northern mountain areas. Steady precipitation will exit to the southeast this evening but a weak trailing trough will bring scattered showers, mainly of snow, tonight as colder air comes in.
High clouds will begin to shift southeast of the area this evening and with light winds/very dry air-mass in place, temperatures will likely fall into the lower teens over most of E OK/NW AR tonight. (Friday through Thursday) Slightly warmer weather is expected during the day Friday with high temperatures back into the 30s. But with high pressure at the surface remaining over the area Thursday night temperatures will again plummet into the teens, especially if thicker clouds hold off from the north.
(This evening through Friday) Dry and very cold tonight, a little warmer on Friday. Mid/upper trough axis will move across the area this evening, with cloud cover gradually decreasing overnight.
High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee following yesterday's fropa.
1115 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Much colder with some nuisance lake effect snow showers south and southeast of the lower Great Lakes through Friday, with below normal temperatures lasting right through the weekend.
900 AM MST Thu Jan 20 2022 Latest models are pointing toward more ice pellets than freezing rain from Glasgow east along Highway 2 to the Poplar area. This makes sense since sub-freezing air will be thicker and thus a better chance of refreezing. Next, as a warm front lifts through the area, look for a wintry mix of precipitation to track from west to east this evening into the overnight hours. Some of the precipitation will fall as freezing rain per forecast soundings showing an elevated warm nose, supported by multiple ensemble members.
239 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 Colder weather will persist through the end of the week as strong Canadian high pressure remains settled over the Midwest. Overnight lows will be below zero northwest of the Illinois river to the lower teens in the southeast.
Therefore, low temperatures are forecast to drop down to the teens tonight with wind chills in the low teens to single digits. Tomorrow, lee troughing east of the Rockies will enhance the pressure gradient resulting in southerly flow across the Permian Basin. Therefore, temperatures will warm above freezing across the region as high temperatures will hoover around 40 to 50 degrees.
1117 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 The Middle and Upper Keys have remained mostly dry, while the Lower Keys have received a few rounds of rainfall this morning. There is a warm front lingering to our south, which has helped induce this type of environment. There is still decent veering in place, so a thunderstorm or two across the warmer waters in the Straits of Florida is still not out of the question. Have increased rain chances in the Lower Keys, since most of the rain will be concentrated in that area.
235 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 (Issued 235 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022) Tonight and Friday: Clear skies will continue tonight into Friday, as high pressure moves through the region.
151 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Arctic high pressure will gradually build into the area through Friday and then push off to the south over the weekend. With a subtle ridging pattern replacing this trough, subsidence aloft will be promoted.
cold air streaming over the relatively warmer waters of the Great lakes will continue to result in lake effect snow showers tonight.
919 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 A strong cold front continues to move southeast into southeastern Alabama and eastern Georgia at this time. This will produce very cold wind chill values through the day, dropping these values to the lower teens to lower 20s during the late morning and afternoon hours, especially west of the I-65 corridor and in southern middle Tennessee. The amplifying longwave trough to our west will shift eastward into the MS Valley overnight and across the TN Valley on Friday, with modest lift ahead of this feature maintaining a presence of mid/high- level clouds across the region.
1250 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Building high pressure should support very cold and mostly dry conditions through this weekend. In cold nwly flow and upper troughing, lake enhanced snow showers continue to impact portions of the forecast area, including the PGH metro. Despite generally light wind; apparent temperature values in the single digits to below zero are anticipated, especially tonight, with lowest values in the higher terrain. The focus for this portion of the forecast will be the continued very cold conditions as broad high pressure maintains a period of dry weather.
A strong cold front continues to move southeast into southeastern Alabama and eastern Georgia at this time. This will produce very cold wind chill values through the day, dropping these values to the lower teens to lower 20s during the late morning and afternoon hours, especially west of the I-65 corridor and in southern middle Tennessee. The amplifying longwave trough to our west will shift eastward into the MS Valley overnight and across the TN Valley on Friday, with modest lift ahead of this feature maintaining a presence of mid/high- level clouds across the region.
Therefore, opted to issue a Wind Chill Advisory across northwest Oklahoma (where the probability is the highest). Either way--it'll be a cold night area wide! Warmer weather is expected tomorrow afternoon with rising mid- level heights, abundant insolation, and a return to southerly winds.
1214 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 Building high pressure should support very cold and mostly dry conditions through this weekend. In cold nwly flow and upper troughing, lake enhanced snow showers continue to impact portions of the forecast area, including the PGH metro. Despite generally light wind; apparent temperature values in the single digits to below zero are anticipated, especially tonight, with lowest values in the higher terrain. The focus for this portion of the forecast will be the continued very cold conditions as broad high pressure maintains a period of dry weather.
Overnight, the ridge axis passes off to the east with southerly winds kicking in across southeast MN and northeast IA. While temperatures are expected to be about 7-10F warmer Friday, gusty winds from the south at 15-25 mph will keep wind chills near or below zero. A very strong wave is also located further south in British Columbia and that digs hard south and becomes a closed low over the desert southwest. There is a very small chance of 1-2 hours of freezing drizzle at the end of the system south and west of KLSE, but this impact and likelihood is small and will not message it at this time.
Otherwise it will be a cold day as northerly winds keep temperatures fairly steady through the day in the lower to mid 30's. Cold front will be east of the area by 12z. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 36 22 43 / 30 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 22 33 19 40 / 70 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 20 34 17 40 / 30 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 18 31 12 37 / 70 10 10 10 0.
Therefore, warmer temperatures will occur. While still 10+ degrees below normal for the date, they will be about 10 degrees warmer than we are experiencing this afternoon.
Any residual snow showers or flurries will quickly exit the SE TX Panhandle as the main H500 trough further south moves north into Mexico. In this progressive sinusoidal NW to SE flow, following the aforementioned trough, a H500 ridge will build into the Panhandles for tomorrow bringing mostly clear skies and temperatures much warmer than today. On the heels of the UL ridge, a second trough moves SE across the Rockies. High temperatures tomorrow will get well above freezing for all with values ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
225 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 High pressure with some bitterly cold air will then settle in for a few days.