Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
905 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Primary focus for the rest of the overnight hours will be on the potential for fog/freezing fog Thursday morning. Low level thermal progs suggest temps over the next 36 hours should be trending a bit cooler, and NBM appears to be handling this well.
316 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 H5 ridge continues to build across the region today, pushing most of the storm track well to the north and east.
Weak ascent evident as height falls engage the existing trough/convergence axis could prove a catalyst within the background of steeper diurnal lapse rates. Lake aggregate trough fixated over lake Huron will translate southward Thursday night as flow veers northeasterly in response.
640 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will push offshore tonight.
401 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail into Thursday -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West/Rockies. as weak high pressure progresses across the Tri-State area. Fri-Fri night: A broad, complex mid-latitude cyclone -- perhaps comprised of several distinct low centers -- will develop in the lee of the Central/Northern Rockies late Thu night, progressing ESE-SE toward the Central/Southern MS River Valley on Fri. multiple waves (both of which have yet to move ashore the Pacific coast) interacting over the complex terrain of the W/NW CONUS -- considerable uncertainty exists with regard to the evolution of the emerging/resultant wave (and associated surface cyclone) over the central CONUS. Maximum winds will highly depend upon the precise evolution of the complex upper wave and associated sf cyclone.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken tonight, and the upper level ridge axis will shift east across Colorado on Thursday. We will be warming further as the ridge shifts this way, with about 3C warmup advertised in the 800-700 mb layer.
432 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Mild northwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon as the upper ridge slowly builds toward the region from the west.
Clouds will build in tonight as a cold front approaches shore. Ridges are particularly dry with RHs around 10. Satellite shows mid and high level clouds lurking offshore along a weak cold front. High resolution ensembles like the HREF have continued to delay the cold front today.
A second, more amplified trough digs into the Upper Ohio Valley towards the afternoon. Above average afternoon temperatures ahead of southerly flow will mean the bulk of this precip will fall as rain showers in the lower elevations but more of a snow and rain mix in the higher elevations and north of I-80. Clouds and weak cold, to neutral temperature advection under the upper troughing will keep temperature about 5 degrees above average tonight. Cold advection will strengthen on the strength of deep northerly flow following passage of the aforementioned trough axis. The low level flow shifts around to a northeast component by Friday night in advance of high pressure shifting east over the Upper Great Lakes.
High pressure to our north will weaken and shift northeastward into the Atlantic weakening the pressure gradient and decreasing winds tonight. Coastal troughing will linger over our coastal waters tonight. Lows overnight will be around normal to just above normal ranging from the upper 30s north to the low 50s along the NE FL coast. An upper trough deepens and digs southward from the Great Lakes on Thursday as a strong upper jet rounds the base of the trough moving into the area Thursday night. High pressure briefly builds over the area on Friday leading to sunny skies with highs in the 60s.
Upper trough axis will cross the area on Thursday, so suspect a few light snow showers/flurries will dot the area, but confidence in timing/areal coverage remain low. Weak ascent evident as height falls engage the existing trough/convergence axis could prove a catalyst within the background of steeper diurnal lapse rates. Lake aggregate trough fixated over lake Huron will translate southward Thursday night as flow veers northeasterly in response. This period will otherwise be defined by noteworthy cold air advection - low level thermal trough defined by 850 mb temperatures below -11c Friday afternoon. Weekend period characterized by dry conditions and continued below average temperatures as influential high pressure only slowly exits to the east.
Chances for light snow return Thursday night, as a cold front nudges temperatures lower for Friday. Looking ahead, the main weather concern over the next few days will be a cold front moving from west to east across the region on Thursday evening. /ISSUED 505 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022/ Gusty west-southwest winds across North-central Montana are decreasing as an upper level ridge moves closer to the region. The upper level ridge axis moves east of the Continental Divide Thursday morning. This Alberta Clipper system trails a cold front through North-central Montana Thursday night, producing a period of gusty northwest winds and light snow into early Friday morning. Temperatures turn cooler behind the front on Friday, with highs dropping back into the 30s for most areas.
Conditions will remain dry and mild tonight and Thursday under the influence of high pressure. High cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, and with the already warmer start to the day, will see above normal temperatures again on Thursday, though not as warm as the past couple of days. There is more of a concern for some mixed precipitation over western portions of the CWA where a warm layer aloft will set up along the main area of low pressure that will extend from south to north over the central part of South Dakota after midnight. Since this system is a couple of days out, the track of the low could wobble a bit, which would change the higher snowfall accumulations east or west.
Light and variable winds tonight will become westerly around 10 knots Thursday as a cold front moves south over eastern portions of the Southeast. The forecast area remains under northerly flow into Thursday, with a shift to westerly ahead of a cold front moving southeast from the Midwest to the eastern portion of the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid 60s are expected Thursday, with the cold front remaining east of the forecast area. Temperatures friday are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s.
347 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 The week ahead will be cooler as the longwave trough finally gains some holding power over the region.
Temperatures have responded well where there was sunshine, warming the region into the upper 30s and even into the low 40s for a few locations. But if some moisture happens to deposit on the surface, be aware of potentially slippery conditions to develop with surface temperatures decreasing below freezing. From there, it is expected to drop south/southeast across the Plains as an upper level low forms over South Dakota or Nebraska Friday.
The forecast area remains under northerly flow into Thursday, with a shift to westerly ahead of a cold front moving southeast from the Midwest to the eastern portion of the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid 60s are expected Thursday, with the cold front remaining east of the forecast area. Temperatures friday are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s.
Patchy fog is possible this morning with weak flow ahead of a cold front that will shift winds to the north through the day. The RAP suggests enough low-level saturation/lift for patchy freezing drizzle across central WI late today/this evening, but have not added any mention at this point. Colder, drier air will filter into the area tonight with low-level easterly flow on the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure. Meanwhile, with the upper low and weak surface reflection diving south across the northern plains, the strongest synoptic lift, thermal advection, and seasonably rich moisture (+1 to 2+ NAEFS standard anomalies) look to remain mostly to the west, possibly brushing far southwestern counties.
Some lingering high clouds are preventing unrestricted radiational cooling, and temps are trending on track for lows in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south. An upper-level trough will be moving through the area today, which will gradually shift surface winds to the northwest. Lows tonight will range from the low to upper-30s, where lows tomorrow will range from the upper-30s to low-40s.
1002 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Update to increase wind gusts a bit to match up more with the RAP, near 20 mph or so behind a trough passing through tonight.
It will be a bit warmer tonight. The entire midsouth is expected to stay above freezing.
High pressure at the sfc otherwise remains centered over the srn Plains/lower MS Valley and will move little into the day Thu. This should translate into another night of quiet wx conditions, although with the increase in cloud cover, lows may trend more in the low/mid 30s early Thu morning. A weak area of low pressure moving to the SE from south central Canada will bring a trough/weak front across the area Thursday evening. Before then with more variable clouds, a similarly cool day is forecast for tomorrow, with highs warming into the low/mid 50s. Lows should be a tad cooler Thu night, falling into the lower 30s, and only into the upper 40s to around 50 for highs on Friday.
929 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail into Thursday -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West/Rockies. as weak high pressure progresses across the Tri-State area. Fri-Fri night: A broad, complex mid-latitude cyclone -- perhaps comprised of several distinct low centers -- will develop in the lee of the Central/Northern Rockies late Thu night, progressing ESE-SE toward the Central/Southern MS River Valley on Fri. multiple waves (both of which have yet to move ashore the Pacific coast) interacting over the complex terrain of the W/NW CONUS -- considerable uncertainty exists with regard to the evolution of the emerging/resultant wave (and associated surface cyclone) over the central CONUS. Maximum winds will highly depend upon the precise evolution of the complex upper wave and associated sf cyclone.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb high pressure centered just south of the Baja Peninsula will produce a dry flow for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
High-impact weather is possible this weekend across the Ohio Valley as strong low pressure will develop over the Deep South and then lift NE up the East Coast.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 33 49 35 50 / 10 10 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 33 44 32 46 / 10 10 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 32 44 31 46 / 10 10 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 32 41 28 42 / 20 30 0 0 20.
Primary focus for the rest of the overnight hours will be on the potential for fog/freezing fog Thursday morning. Low level thermal progs suggest temps over the next 36 hours should be trending a bit cooler, and NBM appears to be handling this well.
313 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 There is a low chance of drizzle and flurries today, perhaps a brief period of freezing drizzle until midday with temperatures hovering near freezing.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds behind pushing cool and dry air into the Sunshine State.
155 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the Northern Rockies with a notable wave over BC and upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge is located over eastern MT with northwest/west winds across our area. For today, mild and dry conditions are expected with thermal ridge just off to our west. Mid/high clouds moving atop the ridge will be on the increase across the region. This will send a sharp cold front through very late tonight and early Friday.
940 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 H5 ridge continues to build across the region today, pushing most of the storm track well to the north and east. Areas downwind from the Absarokas and Big Horns will still jump into the low 50s Friday afternoon. Timing of the next clipper still remains on track for Thursday night, with a return of some cooler temperatures areawide.
An upper- level trough will swing eastward late tonight and Thursday and push a weak frontal boundary over the Keys by Thursday evening into Friday morning; the front is expected to be to the southeast of the Keys by Friday afternoon. Breezes are expected to turn to the northeast late tonight ahead of a cold front that will approach the area from the north. When the cold front pushes through the Keys winds will freshen out of the northwest.
Winds at the surface continue out of the northwest thanks to a weak cold front which came through and a high pressure centered in north central Colorado. Warmer air will start to filter in from the west and we should see highs range from the upper 50s in the northeast zones to the mid 60s near the Oklahoma border. For Friday a strong cold front will move through western Kansas during the day as an Alberta clipper approaches from the northwest. At the surface a strengthening low pressure center in the Texas panhandle will progress south and east during the day.
This shifting of the ridge axis eastward will allow for large scale subsidence to take over tonight into most of Thursday. There will still be some mid and high level moisture on the downwind side of the ridge axis leading to at least some cloud cover tonight and early Thursday. All of this will eventually carve out a potent long wave trough across the lower MS Valley.
Some lingering high clouds are preventing unrestricted radiational cooling, and temps are trending on track for lows in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south.
Update to increase wind gusts a bit to match up more with the RAP, near 20 mph or so behind a trough passing through tonight.
Light freezing rain is also possible for parts of central WA during the morning hours. Light precipitation will spread east of the Cascades in the 15-18z timeframe leading to the potential for freezing rain at Wenatchee and Moses Lake.
Light variable winds tonight with clear skies will allow for radiational cooling across SE Texas and lows will range in the upper 30s along our northern counties, in the 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and in the low 50s along the coastal areas. Winds will turn west on Thursday but remain fairly light as high pressure builds over the lower to mid TX coasts. As high pressure pushes into the Gulf, winds will turn southwest Thursday night into Friday morning and lows will be slightly higher but thanks to another night of mostly clear skies with light winds, lows should remain generally in the 40s inland and in the mid to upper 50s along the coastline.
Maintained flurries but sfc temperatures hovering around near or below freezing mark could mean potential for a few slick spots if anything reaches the sfc. Thursday will be the last in this string of milder days as strong ridging upstream edges closer to the region. Look for highs to be slightly cooler than the past few days, reaching the 30s to upper 40s. For late Thursday night through Friday night, the main impact is widespread snow accumulations as a strong clipper tracks from the Canadian Rockies southward through the High Plains.
1052 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Mild northwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon as the upper ridge slowly builds toward the region from the west. The relatively mild and quiet weather will continue through Thursday afternoon, but then a fast moving upper trough and associated surface cold front will bring significant changes starting Thursday night and continuing through Friday. The upper trough will drop southeastward into the northern plains on Thursday night. Areas included in the High Wind Watch could also see periods of light snow and BLSN, so have highlighted that possibility in the statements.
A weak sfc boundary will work south through the area today, although am hesitant to call it a cold front as temps today will actually be warmer than what we saw yesterday.
An upper level short wave trough over the northwest U. The short wave trough moving southeast across the Rockies will phase with a short wave trough moving south through the northern Plains on Friday. As these two phase it will help to send a powerful cold front through the Panhandles.
924 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 A weak low pressure system will move southeast across the region today, resulting in the possibility for a few showers.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of the ridge continues. An upper low moving into the PacNW will weaken the ridge over NorCal today which means our daytime highs today will cool a bit, expect mainly the upper 50s to upper 60s. Expect breezy to locally gusty offshore winds to impact our higher terrain in North Bay, East Bay, and into the San Francisco Peninsula as that trough tracks southeastward and grazes the Great Basin. Meanwhile, there's an upper level cut-off low over the Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.
Overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a fairly amplified longwave pattern with mean ridge axis centered across the Great Basin and trough axis centered across the Great Lakes region down to the southeast CONUS. Farther upstream, an upper low was entering the Pacific Northwest region. The two systems will likely phase into a deeper cyclone by Friday, as the newly formed low moves south-southeast across the central CONUS during the day Friday and Friday Night. Initially in the morning, the weather will be fairly pleasant by mid-January standards with daybreak temperatures in the lower to mid 30s most locations, and a south wind 10 mph or so. By mid to late morning, a strong cold front will begin its trek across western Kansas.
A beautiful day is in store for South Texas today with warmer and drier conditions expected as ridging continues to take control over the region providing subsidence. By tomorrow, ridging aloft will begin to weaken as the next mid/upper level disturbance transitions across the Plains. At the surface, winds will be shifting around to the south and southeast as the high pressure begins to move out to the east and a low deepens over the Texas Panhandle. The return flow in conjunction with mostly sunny skies will lead to even warmer daytime temperatures on Friday, with highs forecast to rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s over most of the area.
314 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Backdoor cold front situated in North Dakota continues on a trajectory to the south southwest and during the day today will draw in a layer of low clouds in addition to temperatures falling into the 20s. Some issues confidence-wise on how quickly it will ensconce the CWA, with central South Dakota seeing another day well above freezing. HRRR mixed down gives us around 45kt which is in line with the higher order of NBM.
405 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 A weak low pressure system will move southeast across the region today, resulting in the possibility for a few showers.
An upper level ridge to our west will keep dry northwest flow aloft intact across the region today. Skies will be sunny, with light west to southwest winds and afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
304 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 The upper level ridge axis will slowly move towards the forecast area today keeping our weather quiet. An upper trough will enter the Pacific Northwest today and dig into the Intermountain West Tonight. As this trough nears the Rockies, a Lee cyclone will form over southeastern Colorado and move south into the Texas Panhandle, bringing strong downslope winds to the area. The aforementioned trough will push a cold front through the area near sunset, helping to extend elevated winds into the nighttime hours.
Can't rule out patchy freezing rain/drizzle since full saturation in the snow growth area is uncertain. Highs today will be a little cooler than yesterday, but still above normal. A mid level trough will dive south from the Northern Plains on Friday.
Dry and cooler wx will be in place tonight and Friday with lows around 30 and highs in the 40s.
High pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions across the region through tonight. The next trough will cross the area Thursday night into Friday and will be accompanied by a mainly dry cold frontal passage Friday morning.
403 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Quiet, but slightly warmer conditions, will exist across the forecast area during the forecast period.
This system has the potential to bring snow, light freezing drizzle, and strong winds to portions of north central Nebraska. The majority of any snow will fall north and east of Highway 2 with the highest totals of up to 2 inches across Boyd and Holt counties. In addition to snow, analysis of model soundings indicate there's a chance of some mixed precipitation (sleet and freezing drizzle) early in the event before colder air pushes in and changes all precipitation to snow.
Winds will turn out of the northwest today which will introduce some cold air advection, but with the warm start and afternoon sun, most of the area should still see highs climbing into the low 50s.
The system moving through the PacNW today will drop a dry cold front southward into the Great Basin which will lead to an increase in north to east surface pressure gradient across NorCal in its wake later tonight into Friday. Gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible along the western edge of the Sacramento Valley, and some local gusts over 40 mph will be possible across the northern Sierra ridges.
Before that, one more quiet day in store as upper level ridging nudges eastward into the region. While most of our snowfall will occur on Friday into early Friday night, most deterministic models runs and ensembles have shifted the highest snowfall axis slightly to the east - closer to the optimal midlevel frontogenesis oriented from southwestern MN into north central IA. This is where the highest snowfall rates will occur, with HREF ensembles indicating a half to an inch hourly rates over that area. The highest confidence in snow amounts resides from our eastern most MN/IA zones - with GEFS/SREF/WPC Super Ensemble plumes showing less of a spread over those areas - clustering on either side of the ensemble mean. Snowfall will end from north to south after midnight as the upper level trough shifts southward.
A weak weather system moving into the Ohio Valley will swing a cold front across the state this morning. Lows tonight will fall back down to below freezing.
253 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Upper ridge will move through eastern Montana today with very warm air aloft for mid January. Alberta Clipper system will bring a cold front through the forecast area tonight. While there will only be a chance for precipitation tonight and Friday morning, forecasting precipitation type will be very tricky as warm air aloft this evening with cold surface could result in freezing rain in the northeast this evening and either a lack of ice crystal or warm enough air aloft could yield a mix of sleet and freezing rain instead of light snow if any precipitation occurs late tonight. Gusty north to NW winds will develop behind the cold front late tonight and continue into Friday morning before diminishing in the afternoon.
Winds will be less gusty today and will start out from the south before veering to the west then northwest with the approach and passage of a weakening cold front this evening. The low will be dragging a cold front behind it and will weaken as it approaches and eventually passes through eastern Kentucky Thursday evening. Heights aloft will rebound as subsidence increases behind the trough, though low level clouds will persist through Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30s. Friday highs will be around 10 degrees cooler than the previous day as northwest flow initiates CAA into the area.
639 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 A weak low pressure system will move southeast across the region today, resulting in the possibility for a few showers.
418 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Tranquil marine conditions are expected into Friday, however a moderate onshore flow will develop Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Quiet weather is anticipated as high pressure moves across the area. And, it will be cooler with highs Friday from the upper 30s to mid 40s.