Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong warm air advection will bring warmer air into the area but much of that will go into melting the snow/ice pack around the area. Overall suspect that most locations will top out in the 30s to near 40 but along the Missouri River and especially in central SD temperatures will have a better chance to rise through a combination of less or a lack of snow cover and warmer low level temperatures advecting in.
A fairly well amplified ridge is positioned just off the west coast. The pressure gradient will loosen, resulting in decreasing winds, through the day as low pressure moves east and the high works southeast into the state. However, the west CONUS ridge will somewhat deamplify and approach from the west with the eastern periphery beginning to affect the area this evening into tonight. As a result, fairly strong WAA will be present aloft, while an encroaching warm frontal boundary at the surface will turn the temperature tide. There are some hints that light snow could briefly accompany this warm frontal passage.
405 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Warmer temperatures will move into the region today, along with an increase in westerly winds.
Key Messages: - Light snow possible with cold frontal passage today. - Cold Saturday morning, but warmer weather is just around the corner. An area of low pressure was located over southwest Ontario early this morning with a cold front extending south across Minnesota. The low will progress pretty quickly to the east today allowing the cold front to push across the local area this morning. Compared to climatology, the NAEFS would peg these 850 mb temperatures in the lower 0.
850-700 mb temps will be warmer today so that will allow highs to moderate back to the upper 30s to mid 30s over nern CO. Winds over the higher terrain will increase today into tonight. Finally, lows tonight over the valleys should be warmer due to anticipated cloud cover overnight.
Morning frost and freezing temperatures will make a sharp rebound today as a mostly sunny and warm day develops.
Pops will quickly be at zero percent for much of the day as cool high pressure prevails across the greater region. The main exception is went with cooler highs over the higher snowpack across the northern counties. Again, went cooler across the northern counties over the snowpack. It snowed quite a bit up north, so still feel cooler is better.
624 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 Cold air will continue to settle over the area as a low pressure area moves along a front and brings accumulating snow to the forecast area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s today and only around 25 Saturday.
Strongest north winds today will remain in the lower Colorado River Valley. North winds will remain elevated within the lower CRV today, especially within Laughlin/Bullhead City. A ridge axis will be moving inland across California/western Nevada late this afternoon. Ridge axis will progress east on Saturday as next upstream trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
a cold front will drop SE through the state through this afternoon/evening. Today Through Saturday Night A cold front has dropped SE into the far NWRN CWA early this Fri morning. This activity will gradually spread SE over time throughout this Fri and Fri The aforementioned cold front will drop SE through the state by this afternoon. The first wave will be associated with a weak upper disturbance passing overhead behind the cold front across NWRN and NRN AR this morning into the early afternoon hrs. Looks like the higher snowfall amounts will be across the WRN AR Ouachita Mtn areas were 2-3 inches are expected.
Cold front that pushed through the area yesterday was moving even faster south as a reinforcing shot of cold air moved into the upper Mississippi River valley. High pressure will build into the area, leading a well below normal low temperatures today and tonight. These winds and cooler temps will add a bite to the air for the middle of March across the area.
/issued 422 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ A cold front will bring a late season accumulating snow event this evening into Saturday morning. We will struggle to get much above freezing, but the good news is the sun should be out melting the snow.
The trough that has largely sat over the western U. The cold front associated with the trough has moved into central Indiana from the NW earlier tonight and will continue to push precip across the area into tonight. High temperatures today will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s but lows tonight will plummet into the low teens.
as a deep/pronounced upper level trough progresses eastward across the MS River Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
134 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Warming trend into the weekend as northwest flow settles in aloft with a weak upper ridge moving in Saturday. Have kept some scattered PoPs in the forecast for the Absarokas and areas east of Billings this afternoon and overnight tonight as a weak trough moves through. This combined with some instability in the lower levels may result in some scattered showers (snow in the Absarokas) overnight tonight.
18Z TAF CYCLE Improving conditions as clouds and snow continue to move sewd over southeast NM with the upper trough exiting the state around 21Z.
In it's wake well below normal temperatures in the 20s, and brisk NW winds 20-35 mph making it feel more like the single digits and teens! Bitterly cold air will be the main story, as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the departing Arctic front over the next 12-18+ hrs. But, a developing south/southwest wind by mid-late PM on the heels of the retreating ridge could provide a boost into the 30s for some locations west of the Mississippi River.
Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s, which is about 20F below normal. 850-700 mb temps will be warmer today so that will allow highs to moderate back to the upper 30s to mid 30s over nern CO. Winds over the higher terrain will increase today into tonight. Finally, lows tonight over the valleys should be warmer due to anticipated cloud cover overnight.
Western CONUS ridge will shift east this weekend, allowing for much milder air to push back into the region. Cold front and associated upper trough has pushed through the region. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds. There are some indications that enough WAA upglide may develop late tonight into Sat morning ahead of the warm front to support some flurries or light snow across NE WY into NW SD.
Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the speed and magnitude of diurnal trend modifications and precipitation variations as cooler air continues to seep further southward.
The mid-level trough responsible for this morning's clouds and precipitation pivots eastward this afternoon, bringing northerly flow aloft and advecting in much drier air. Saturday night will be warmer than Friday night, though still quite chilly in the middle 20s.
Low temperatures were near or at freezing for some locations along and at the coast this morning and a frost advisory will end at 10 am pst.
Snow reports continuing to come in but general average of 2-4" across the NW quarter to third of the area with the higher amounts occurring where some of these banded areas set up. A second cold front was moving across the area today and should move southeast as accumulating snow diminishes.
A strong cold front is expected to pass through the Florida Keys and its coastal waters late Saturday afternoon or early The earlier confluent zone has mixed sufficiently, yielding mostly clear skies with gentle southeast to south breezes. The main weather story is the strong cold front set to pass through the Keys during the late afternoon or very early evening hours, preceded perhaps by a couple hours by a narrow or deteriorating squall. The mid/upper ridge position across Cuba is likely to keep southwest flow of dry air at mid altitudes for the next 18-21 hours, and precipitable waters may struggle to top 1.
Temps this morning are significantly warmer than yesterday morning. Latest models decrease clouds this afternoon, and temps should reach forecast highs about ten degrees warmer than occurred yesterday. More middle and high warm-frontal clouds will come in tonight, then decrease from west to east during the day Saturday, with high temps another 10 degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures were climbing into the lower 80s with dewpoints a bit higher than yesterday, now in the 73-75F range. Upper ridging stretching but holding over Cuba will likely maintain the warm cap aloft, thus over time some of the remaining marine showers are apt to temporarily dissipate this afternoon.
Temperatures should begin to trend cooler West of the Mississippi River over the next couple of hours. /issued 553 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ A cold front will bring a late season accumulating snow event this evening into Saturday morning. We will struggle to get much above freezing, but the good news is the sun should be out melting the snow.
An upper level trough continues to move across the High Plains from west to east this afternoon. Due to melting/settling of snow particularly north of the interstate and cloud cover which typically results in warmer temperatures, lows were brought up slightly in that area. An upper level ridge moves over the High Plains this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions and warmer temperatures. South winds usher in some warmer temperatures with afternoon highs reaching the 40s. The warmer temperatures will help continue to erode existing snowpack across the area.
250 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Northwesterly flow continues with a cold high pressure progged to slide through the Northern Plains through the rest of today and overnight. Thus, high pressure along with mostly clear skies and snow cover, keep temperatures well below normal overnight. Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly (starting across south central SD) overnight as the high tracks through portions of MN. Southerly surface winds, and 850 mb ridging pulling in warm air advection (WAA) bring warmer temperatures, about 10 degrees either side of normal. Still some question as to how warm we get tomorrow, given the high pressure lingering over the eastern portions of the area and remaining snow cover.
An upper level trough and the corresponding cold front will create a frontogenetic line which will move through the region this evening. - Lake effect snow tonight into Saturday - Behind this cold front a deepening upper level trough will shift the winds from northwest flow to more northerly.
It will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s across far northern portions of east central FL that sees more cloud cover, with mid to upper 80s across much of east central FL. Updated to expand Gale Watch across all of the waters from Saturday late morning through Saturday night, as winds 25-30 knots and frequent gusts to gale force will be possible as strong cold front moves through the area.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a strong cold front had pushed just south of the Interstate-10 corridor, bringing temperatures down to the low to mid 30s and wind chills in the teens and 20s. To the west, an upper-level trough was over the Desert Southwest and moving eastward. Minor disturbances in the upper level flow ahead of the main trough will help to generate wintry precipitation chances across most of the area this morning. The main trough axis will push through the area this afternoon, bringing precip chances to an end, with a few breaks in the clouds possible. Regardless of precipitation, the overcast skies, stout inversion, and northerly surface winds of 20 MPH will cause temperatures to generally maintain a flat-line trend today, holding in the low 30s.
Trending warmer this weekend with above-normal temperatures forecast through the upcoming work week.
1034 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Improving conditions as clouds and snow continue to move sewd over southeast NM with the upper trough exiting the state around 21Z.
Warmer temperatures will move into the region today, along with an increase in westerly winds.
Approaching cold front w/SQ LN punches through the terminals Sat. Possible Freezing Temperatures Over The Weekend. A stronger cold front will approach and move south through the waters on Saturday with additional showers and storms along and ahead of it, some that could be severe.
Ceilings should gradually erode from west to east across the area late tonight into Saturday morning following the passage of an upper level trough and strong cold front.
137 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 20z surface analysis had high over the Dakotas with trough from central MT into southeast WY. Baroclinic zone along trough less productive than this morning, but still showing signs of of leftover -shsn per radar. Water vapour had upper ridge building into the northwest CONUS. Tonight, upper ridge builds eastward with robust low level warm air advection. Saturday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as warm front moves into the eastern Dakotas courtesy of low pressure over central Canada.
Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the speed and magnitude of diurnal trend modifications and precipitation variations as cooler air continues to seep further southward. /issued 535 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ Clouds will continue to move into the region and expand through the morning ahead of a cold front.
Saturday, an upper level ridge begins to build over the Intermountain West placing the western portions of the state under the eastern periphery of the ridge. A warm front is set to trek through the state Saturday afternoon bringing possible precipitation Saturday evening across the northeastern North Dakota.
135 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Warming trend into the weekend as northwest flow settles in aloft with a weak upper ridge moving in Saturday. Have kept some scattered PoPs in the forecast for the Absarokas and areas east of Billings this afternoon and overnight tonight as a weak trough moves through. This combined with some instability in the lower levels may result in some scattered showers (snow in the Absarokas) overnight tonight.
2) A cool day is expected, but the cooler temperatures will be where the heaviest snow fell. Light snow lingers over the southern mountains and plains, but the majority of the region has snow free in response to the trough axis being just to the east of Colorado (as of 2:30am). Behind the trough axis is very dry air, as indicated by PWAT fields, which will cause temperatures to plummet quickly where there is no cloud cover. Dry conditions and a lingering cool airmass are expected over southern Colorado today, though some places with recent snowfall will be cooler than places that didn't receive much snowfall.
Low temperatures were near or at freezing for some locations along and at the coast this morning and a frost advisory will end at 10 am pst. VFR conditions will prevail through Friday night, except for patchy IFR cigs/vsbys in fog/freezing fog in the Umpqua and Coquille valleys through mid-morning Friday.
Possible Freezing Temperatures Over The Weekend. A stronger cold front will approach and move south through the waters on Saturday with additional showers and storms along and ahead of it, some that could be severe.
808 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Warmer temperatures will move into the region today, along with an increase in westerly winds.
Overnight as a weak wave begins the breakdown of the high pressure ridge, a few sprinkles or mixed precipitation may be produced in valleys of northwest or west- central Montana.
248 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 A quiet night is ahead as the upper level short wave trough that has brought today's light snow will have shifted to the east of West Texas by sunset. North-northwest upper flow behind the trough will back slightly to northwest by the end of the day Saturday.
Flow aloft weakens through the day as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. Temperatures will be warmer tonight after last night's very cold night.
310 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the mid 30s in portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to the low 70s in far northeast Mississippi. A cold front front has moved through Memphis and is approaching Oxford, MS and Savannah, TN.
An upper level ridge builds over the western United States, leading to northwesterly flow aloft. High pressure will continue to slide south through the Plains behind a backdoor cold front. The snowpack also remains intact for most of the area too, which should help maintain cooler temperatures. Keeping this in mind, went with slightly warmer overnight temperatures compared to the previous forecast package, but lows still remain in the single digits and possibly slightly below zero in north central Nebraska.
The upcoming weekend will see an increased warming trend as models shift the 500 mb ridge to the west, through the Plains region.
429 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 20z surface analysis had high over the Dakotas with trough from central MT into southeast WY. Baroclinic zone along trough less productive than this morning, but still showing signs of of leftover -shsn per radar. Water vapour had upper ridge building into the northwest CONUS. Tonight, upper ridge builds eastward with robust low level warm air advection. Saturday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as warm front moves into the eastern Dakotas courtesy of low pressure over central Canada.
718 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 Accumulating snowfall expected through Friday night as a cold front moves through.
350 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Mostly clear skies over basins tonight allow for another night of efficient radiational cooling; however, overnight lows remain quite a bit warmer than the past two nights given a much milder near-surface air mass.
Morning frost and freezing temperatures will be probable across interior valleys Saturday morning, while fog develops near the coast.
435 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant weather headline across eastern Utah and western Colorado for most of the next 36 hours. Those clouds are coming in over the top of the ridge along with a mild perturbation in the mean northwest flow that will initiate a few terrain driven snow showers in the northern mountains.
Secondary cold front just entering Missouri with much cooler and drier air working into the region. Dew points in the single digits above and below zero along with cooler temperatures and fresh snow cover will yield lows in the single digits overnight. Have continued the trend of erring towards the lower side of guidance with low temperatures tonight.
355 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant weather headline across eastern Utah and western Colorado for most of the next 36 hours. Those clouds are coming in over the top of the ridge along with a mild perturbation in the mean northwest flow that will initiate a few terrain driven snow showers in the northern mountains.
301 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Afternoon update (3pm): Main change to the forecast was to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning for southwest Phillips county. A warm front will move through the region tonight, keeping temperatures from falling much (if at all) overnight, and in some spots rising. It'll definitely feel a lot warmer across Northeast Montana on Saturday. However, the winds will crank up across the area ahead of a relatively weak cold front that moves through in the afternoon and evening. The higher elevations of the Little Rockies and the Big Sheeps should see the strongest winds.
523 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Northwesterly flow continues with a cold high pressure progged to slide through the Northern Plains through the rest of today and overnight. Thus, high pressure along with mostly clear skies and snow cover, keep temperatures well below normal overnight. Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly (starting across south central SD) overnight as the high tracks through portions of MN. Southerly surface winds, and 850 mb ridging pulling in warm air advection (WAA) bring warmer temperatures, about 10 degrees either side of normal. Still some question as to how warm we get tomorrow, given the high pressure lingering over the eastern portions of the area and remaining snow cover.
A warming trend will continue through Saturday as an area of high pressure moves over the region.
Winds have dropped off with only some lingering gusts along and just south of the higher terrain. Ridging will push eastwards into Arizona through the weekend, keeping conditions dry.
(This evening through Saturday) By Saturday, our flow aloft will shift out of the northwest as an upper ridge builds across the western half of the country, while down at the surface southerly winds make a return across the Southern Plains. Saturday afternoons temperatures will start to return to more seasonably average for mid-March, but did go slightly warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS.
/issued 310 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the mid 30s in portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to the low 70s in far northeast Mississippi. A cold front front has moved through Memphis and is approaching Oxford, MS and Savannah, TN.
A ridge of high pressure continues to amplify over the area this afternoon. South to southwest low-level flow is allowing for warmer air to push into the area helping bring temps above freezing for the first time in a few days across the Magic Valley and lower Snake.
306 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Mostly clear skies over basins tonight allow for another night of efficient radiational cooling; however, overnight lows remain quite a bit warmer than the past two nights given a much milder near-surface air mass.
The only exception to this is expected to take place in a few localized and sheltered northern mountain locations such as the Moreno valley, including KAXX where patchy freezing fog may develop.
Today's cold front will set us up for chilly start to the weekend. Sub-freezing low temperatures can be expected across the region, excluding the metro and coastal areas. However, breezy winds from today's front will make it feel much cooler, with wind chill temperatures in 20s throughout our area. Lows will be in the lower 30s inland and 40s along the coast.
However, minimal impacts until the SFC temps drop below freezing, which will not be for another 1-2 hours across NW AL and closer to midnight farther to the east. 1-3 inches of snow is expected tonight with the highest amounts across NE AL and southern middle TN. With temperatures in the mid to lower 20s early and only climbing into the upper 20s to around freezing, the strong winds will continue to produce very cold wind chill values in the teens much of the day. Winds will continue to drop off Saturday evening and with an arctic area of high pressure building over the southeast, lows should drop into the lower teens to around 20 degrees.
352 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Key Message: Cold temperatures expected tonight, with warmer conditions expected on Saturday. Midlevel height rises associated with the eastward progression of a ridge over the western states will favor the onset of warmer conditions on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions expected.
The period opens with an approaching low pressure system and upper trough.
Skies will continue to clear from the west as the mid level trough axis continues to shift eastward.
151 PM PST Fri Mar 11 2022 Santa Ana winds will continue to subside while a ridge builds over the regoin from the west.
Surface temperatures early this afternoon are 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Valley/lower desert highs this afternoon are forecast to remain mostly in the low to mid 60s, which is below normal for the date. Objective analysis shows a high amplitude upstream ridge along much of the West Coast. Ensemble guidance has the ridge axis quickly moving eastward across the region through Saturday.
/issued 248 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ A quiet night is ahead as the upper level short wave trough that has brought today's light snow will have shifted to the east of West Texas by sunset. North-northwest upper flow behind the trough will back slightly to northwest by the end of the day Saturday.
Dry with temperatures continuing to trend warmer through Saturday.