Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad, shallow trough extended from the Northern Plains to the St. During the middle to latter part of the upcoming work week, energy from the Pacific will begin to strengthen the westerlies across the CONUS and carve out a trough over the Intermountain West. In response, ridging will increase across the Mississippi Valley late in the period. Amounts will be modest for most of the period, but the potential for more widespread/heavier amounts will increase late in the period as energy from the amplifying trough out west begins to reach the area. Trof moves off/weakens this evening.
127 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area through much of the week. A few isolated showers today, highs in the low 90s. High temperatures will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure ridging will still be over the area Monday, but the air mass is expected to be moderately unstable during the afternoon with precipitable water in excess of 1. Triggers for convection remain limited and will mainly associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms will be possible though with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be slightly above normal in the low 70s.
Overnight lows will generally range from the low to mid 70s across the area.
202 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Southern stream upper low remains positioned across Oklahoma and southern Kansas this afternoon via water vapor imagery. Highs tomorrow are a bit cooler with the denser cloud cover with readings in the lower 80s. Southern stream upper trough translates towards southern Missouri Monday evening.
1134 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 MCV from early morning convective complex seems to have been absorbed into main mid level trough over the Southern Plains and has shifted slightly northward over the past few hours into sern KS.
A majority of the high res model guidance brings this storm complex southeastward into the northeast Coastal Bend around midnight and off the coast around 09z.
The surface map shows a trough over the northern plains, with a cold front draped over northern SD.
High pressure ridging will still be over the area Monday, but the air mass is expected to be moderately unstable during the afternoon with precipitable water in excess of 1. Triggers for convection remain limited and will mainly associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms will be possible though with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be slightly above normal in the low 70s.
/Issued 225 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ High pressure ridge axis has shifted to the south of the CWFA. Not expecting much of a pattern change for Monday, other than the ridge axis shifting a little further south. Models have backed off once again from the high chance/likely pops for Monday to low end sct.
1000 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Warmer and more humid weather conditions will return to the Carolinas this week as high pressure shifts well offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist this week until the next cold front moves through late in the week. Southwesterly flow around the high will support above normal temperatures each period along with increasing humidity. The low-level cap, not expected to be as pronounced tomorrow, will continue and moisture remains limited through the column.
345 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Showers and thunderstorms continue over the higher elevations and will begin to develop over the Plains during the beginning of the forecast period (Sunday at 6PM MDT). Low temperatures are expected to be right around average, with temperatures over the Plains in the low-to-mid 50s, the SLV and upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the mid-40s, and the mountains will range from the upper 20s to 30s. With both values being on the low-end, the severe risk will remain to winds up to 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. High temperatures will be below average once again, with temperatures ranging the low 80s over the Plains, the mid 70s over the SLV and Upper Arkansas River Valley, and 40s to 50s over the mountains.
to underneath the upper low to a line from near Bristow to Jay in Northeast Oklahoma and finally extended into Western Missouri. will also remain possible overnight across Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas as the upper level low moves over the CWA. and begin to taper off Monday evening/night from west to east with the exiting upper level low.
Confidence remains on the low side w/regards to stratus development overnight, as models offer different solutions. /issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ An upper ridge extends up from Mexico across NM and CO today. A weak trough over CA will make little eastward progress as the subtropical ridge builds over Mexico. Late in the week a stronger trough will develop over the western US but the ridge will be hard to dislodge. This front will lift north tomorrow as SE wind returns but should result in a cooler day Monday for the Permian Basin. Latest guidance much cooler than previous forecast.
614 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped along the I-72 corridor this afternoon is separating a slightly cooler/less humid airmass to the north from a very warm/humid airmass across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the middle to upper 70s, but will reach the lower 80s across the SE CWA.
Though there will be some synoptic support for development, it is most likely that coverage will still be mostly diurnally driven, with the highest rain chances during the afternoon hours.
The bulk of this activity should wane by mid evening, although some potential for redevelopment will exist after midnight, mainly at MLC and the northwest AR terminals, as the upper low moves through the area. to underneath the upper low to a line from near Bristow to Jay in Northeast Oklahoma and finally extended into Western Missouri. will also remain possible overnight across Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas as the upper level low moves over the CWA. and begin to taper off Monday evening/night from west to east with the exiting upper level low.
An area of decent shear/helicity in the low levels along with the slow moving boundary supported a period of rotating cells, prompting the tornado warnings earlier. Expect the cloud cover and precipitation to support lows a tad warmer than last night.
Upper low located west of Tulsa per radar animation, and this feature will track slowly east through the night. Based on radar trends and recent CAMs output, have lowered PoPs the remainder of the night across southeast OK, with the highest numbers generally across northeast OK into northwest AR ahead of the track of the upper system.
Southern stream upper low remains positioned across Oklahoma and southern Kansas this afternoon via water vapor imagery. Highs tomorrow are a bit cooler with the denser cloud cover with readings in the lower 80s. Southern stream upper trough translates towards southern Missouri Monday evening.
707 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a closed low over southern Saskatchewan. This low moves east to the upper Great Lakes on Mon.
655 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Warmer and more humid weather conditions will return to the Carolinas this week as high pressure shifts well offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist this week until the next cold front moves through late in the week. Southwesterly flow around the high will support above normal temperatures each period along with increasing humidity. The low-level cap, not expected to be as pronounced tomorrow, will continue and moisture remains limited through the column.
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped along the I-72 corridor this afternoon is separating a slightly cooler/less humid airmass to the north from a very warm/humid airmass across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the middle to upper 70s, but will reach the lower 80s across the SE CWA.
Rain chances will ramp up moving through Monday as an upper trof approaches and gradually moves across the area. Ahead of the outflow and MCS south winds around the Atlantic ridge continues to drag in gulf moisture and temps remain in the upper 80s to low 90s.
SFC cold front is the focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening from the Ohio Valley across north central PA. Dewpoints will drop a bit overnight across northern PA thanks to building high pressure, but it will remain rather muggy across the south. Visibilities dropping to MVFR and as low as LIFR at KBFD is in store overnight with the low level moisture present and a waggling frontal boundary in the vicinity.
623 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A weak trough over California will slowly move east through Monday. Models are showing an uptick in shower activity on Monday as the trough over the southwestern US approaches the forecast area.
Weak surface front is draped across SD with high pressure moving into ND.
A short wave trough will move into east Tennessee late tonight into Monday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast again for tomorrow afternoon and evening in the higher terrain of Baker County, and in the West-Central and Boise mountains.
/issued 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ The cold front that pushed south though our area overnight continues slowly moving toward the I20 corridor this afternoon. A beautiful late Spring day is unfolding behind the cold front under a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees cooler than normal today. Temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow and begin a gradual warm up through midweek as ridging builds over the region. Northwest flow aloft will keep us in the cooler airmass until the ridge axis pivots east and opens up West Texas to southwest flow aloft and warmer temperatures amid drier air. Dewpoints will mostly remain in the 50s on the Caprock and 60s in the Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours through midweek, before the drier air and warmer temperatures build in.
Typical mid June heat for the most part with strong high pressure off the west coast as well as over central Mexico. Just as we try to make a run toward hotter temperatures the second half of the week, yet another trough through western states will moderate things back down to about average.
/issued 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into tonight as upper low continues to move across the area, with the highest chances in S/SE portions of the fa. Funnels and weak landspout tornado will also be possible with showers and storms under the low, mainly over portions of central OK. The rain is expected to shift east of the fa early Monday as the low moves out of the area. Off and on rain chances will continue through the week into the weekend as disturbances move through the flow and/or development occurs in the high plains eventually moving into the fa.
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Aviation - Stormy pattern continues but most of the rain is south of Lower Michigan - Temperatures still running cooler than normal this week Large scale synoptic pattern features a quasi-zonal flow across the northern CONUS the first half of the week which becomes more amplified, with less forecast confidence in the details, late in the week.
Mid to upper-level high pressure is forecast to build into the region starting tomorrow and persist through late in the work week.
/issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ An upper ridge extends up from Mexico across NM and CO today. A weak trough over CA will make little eastward progress as the subtropical ridge builds over Mexico. Late in the week a stronger trough will develop over the western US but the ridge will be hard to dislodge. This front will lift north tomorrow as SE wind returns but should result in a cooler day Monday for the Permian Basin. Latest guidance much cooler than previous forecast.
Otherwise, highs today will range from the upper 80s to middle 90s and lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s.
The current shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing across far NE OK and NW AR is largely moving away from the terminals, but additional, more scattered activity should develop early Monday morning as the upper low moves through the area. Upper low located west of Tulsa per radar animation, and this feature will track slowly east through the night. Based on radar trends and recent CAMs output, have lowered PoPs the remainder of the night across southeast OK, with the highest numbers generally across northeast OK into northwest AR ahead of the track of the upper system.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Lower Mississippi Valley today. A ridge is over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak pressure gradient is over the region today with southerly flow in the lower levels.
415 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Under mostly cloudy skies and steady gentle to moderate southeast winds, temperatures range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
353 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 The upper-level cyclone over the Southern Plains will continue to track to the east today, crossing the Mid-South this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms developed in the warm advection regime downstream of this trough during the evening hours with additional development expected to our west early this morning.
333 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 High pressure resides across south central Canada at the surface, with a ridge extending across north central and northeastern South Dakota/west central MN this morning.
ridging does build but GFS amplitude not quite as tall as EURO.
1132 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Showers and thunderstorms continue over the higher elevations and will begin to develop over the Plains during the beginning of the forecast period (Sunday at 6PM MDT). Low temperatures are expected to be right around average, with temperatures over the Plains in the low-to-mid 50s, the SLV and upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the mid-40s, and the mountains will range from the upper 20s to 30s. With both values being on the low-end, the severe risk will remain to winds up to 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. High temperatures will be below average once again, with temperatures ranging the low 80s over the Plains, the mid 70s over the SLV and Upper Arkansas River Valley, and 40s to 50s over the mountains.
Otherwise, the morning hours should be fairly quiet weather-wise as a surface trof becomes better organized over eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado.
GAH PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Upper low moving east into SW Manitoba today is the main driver of things today. Expect temperatures to remain cooler than normal with highs in the 60s NE to 70s elsewhere.
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a closed low over southern Saskatchewan. This low moves east to the upper Great Lakes on Mon.
Some BR is also expected along the western edge of the low clouds. /issued 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into tonight as upper low continues to move across the area, with the highest chances in S/SE portions of the fa. Funnels and weak landspout tornado will also be possible with showers and storms under the low, mainly over portions of central OK. The rain is expected to shift east of the fa early Monday as the low moves out of the area. Off and on rain chances will continue through the week into the weekend as disturbances move through the flow and/or development occurs in the high plains eventually moving into the fa.
Weak pressure ridge will remain over the area today with low pressure and an upper level trough over the western Gulf Coast. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low 90s with overnight lows tonight in the low 70s.
132 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Warmer and more humid weather conditions will return to the Carolinas this week as high pressure shifts well offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist this week until the next cold front moves through late in the week. Southwesterly flow around the high will support above normal temperatures each period along with increasing humidity. The low-level cap, not expected to be as pronounced tomorrow, will continue and moisture remains limited through the column.
244 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A slow moving upper level low pressure will continue to generate showers/storms over far southeast Kansas today. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level trough over the western states with embedded short wave approaching southern California.
1057 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A weak trough over California will slowly move east through Monday. Models are showing an uptick in shower activity on Monday as the trough over the southwestern US approaches the forecast area.
301 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Showers and a few thunderstorms under the lingering upper low will be the main issue for the period. Upper low is seen on water vapor loop and radar rotating over the far northern Red River Valley currently. The south should see some sunshine and will see the low 70s. Think that the low will be far enough east to keep the threat of funnels out of our area, but will keep an eye out for any surprises.
458 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level lows over northern Quebec and over far southern Manitoba resulting in westerly flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure was located over nw MN with a weak trough southward into nw IA while ridging extended from nw Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. some light showers from ne MN into nw WI supported by 300k-305k isentropic ascent ahead of the trough were making limited progress toward Upper Michigan as it moves away from the stronger forcing and into a drier airmass.
322 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Warmer and more humid weather conditions will return to the Carolinas this week as high pressure shifts well offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist this week until the next cold front moves through late in the week.
1207 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Aviation - Stormy pattern continues but most of the rain is south of Lower Michigan - Temperatures still running cooler than normal this week Large scale synoptic pattern features a quasi-zonal flow across the northern CONUS the first half of the week which becomes more amplified, with less forecast confidence in the details, late in the week.
124 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a closed low over southern Saskatchewan. This low moves east to the upper Great Lakes on Mon.
356 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A trough of Low pressure is situated across the southern Plains early this morning. As today progresses, the Low core associated with this boundary will slide ENE through southern Illinois into southern Indiana.
On Tuesday into Tuesday night, a low-amplitude impulse is forecast to track along the NE-KS border into the lower MO Valley. In the low levels, a surface cyclone will deepen over northern KS while an associated warm front develops poleward into southeast NE. Forcing for ascent attendant to the mid-level wave coupled with low-level convergence/ascent and moisture flux along and to the north of the warm front will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day. Some severe-weather threat may materialize in the vicinity of the warm front over southeast NE during the afternoon and evening hours. There, it appears that the northern extent of modest surface-based instability will coincide with a wind profile exhibiting pronounced veering with height (especially in the lowest 1-2 km AGL).
Moist low level SSE flow and a subtle mid level trough over the state will allow initial development of showers/storms across the Treasure coast which will transition toward the interior into the afternoon.
409 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A few showers continue to rotate around an upper low over eastern OK early this morning, and could sneak back into our extreme eastern zones this afternoon. Then, later in the afternoon and evening Tue, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the high plains along a dry line, likely east of the TX caprock, and then near a cold front near the OK panhandle. The cold front will be near our south of the Red River by Wed afternoon but some chances will linger there through early Thu morning.
High pressure resides across south central Canada at the surface, with a ridge extending across north central and northeastern South Dakota/west central MN this morning. This flow will slowly become southwest as a large upper level low pressure area in western Canada drops/develops over the western U. Therefore, the pattern will be active through the entire period for our region as one short wave trough after another comes across the region from the western trough.
As this trough continues to work its way across the state today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from southern Missouri southward toward the Gulf Coast. By Tuesday morning, as the trough shifts to the east of the state and H500 ridging briefly builds in, western parts of the state will dry out with precip confined to mainly eastern areas.
Mid level ridge still over southeast GA this morning. Best chances will be over inland northeast FL closer to the forcing of the mid level trough and better moisture where we will retain the likely POPs (about 60 percent) and then around the 30-50 percent range over southeast GA where main forcing will be from east coast sea breeze and outflow boundaries. We expected isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, with rest of the tonight seeing some weak convection over the coastal waters as best forcing from the mid level trough and moisture stay just offshore, lifting north-northeast.
/issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ A few showers continue to rotate around an upper low over eastern OK early this morning, and could sneak back into our extreme eastern zones this afternoon. Then, later in the afternoon and evening Tue, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the high plains along a dry line, likely east of the TX caprock, and then near a cold front near the OK panhandle. The cold front will be near our south of the Red River by Wed afternoon but some chances will linger there through early Thu morning.
The low will move slowly east Tuesday and is the basis for heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches this afternoon, tonight and Tuesday morning.
/issued 401 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ Ridging will be building in from the west today, as seen on this morning's RAP analysis. It'll be a dirty ridge, though, as a weakness develops in the flow this afternoon thanks to west- northwest flow aloft. Tomorrow afternoon, a larger area of severe weather is possible as the dryline moves a bit further east into the central South Plains and a cold front moves out of Kansas into the OK and TX Panhandles.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day with the highest coverage likely across far E OK / NW AR.
/issued 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ The upper-level cyclone over the Southern Plains will continue to track to the east today, crossing the Mid-South this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms developed in the warm advection regime downstream of this trough during the evening hours with additional development expected to our west early this morning.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A mid-level trough moving over north Texas is generating some convection well north of the CWA early this morning. Brownsville radar indicates a few streamer showers over the lower Texas coastal waters. Some of these showers may move inland across the lower Rio Grande Valley through mid morning, rainfall amounts will remain light. Rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail tonight and Tuesday as 500mb ridging builds over the region.