Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Conditions will be predominantly dry except a the slight chance of thunderstorms over the high Sierra each afternoon. A fast south flow aloft will prevail across the district in between an offshore low and ridge over the interior west. Think a few storms will be possible in the afternoon mainly near the higher ridges but should be pretty isolated with some lower level moisture in place.
A high pressure system is sinking south closer to the region, which is allowing us to stay in weaker NE flow throughout today. East-west oriented ridging at the sfc and aloft over Illinois and Indiana will give us a hot and vaguely humid day with virtually no rain in sight.
508 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. Models suggest the pattern will amplify as the mid/upper level ridge builds through western Canada and a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS.
640 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 East-west oriented ridging at the sfc and aloft over Illinois and Indiana will give us a hot and vaguely humid day with virtually no rain in sight.
605 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A cold front will cross Lake Ontario this afternoon and push thunderstorms across NY and PA through the early evening hours.
The overall pattern continues with a large high pressure centered over Nebraska allowing for a northwest flow regime through the CWA.
934 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A cold front will cross Lake Ontario this afternoon and push thunderstorms across NY and PA through the early evening hours.
Upper level ridge of high pressure will shift eastward today bringing abundant warm air across the region. The result will be another hot day with many areas seeing max temperatures in the low 100s. Ridging will cap the atmosphere for the afternoon bringing dry conditions. This combined with a weak warm front could tap into some elevated instability and bring some isolated thunderstorms. Slightly cooler, yet still warm, temperatures can be expected through the weekend along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times. Wednesday sees a weak and mainly dry cold front move across the state. Behind this front will see northwest flow aloft and surface ridging moving in from Canada.
539 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure building into the High Plains today looks to bring some capping to the thunderstorm activity over the northeast CWA. The center of the high will drift farther East into the Central Plains and this looks to pull moisture back into our northeast CWA.
There will also be a Canadian cold front that will drop down through eastern Montana tonight. Wednesday will see temperatures only in the low to mid 90s for highs, and the humidity should be higher as well.
High pressure was over the region early this morning with mostly clear skies and calm or light southerly winds. Dew points were mostly in the lower and middle 60s. Today, a light southwesterly breeze will bring warmer and slightly more humid air into the region today, with mostly sunny skies. Have slight chance pops for the highway 20 corridor after midnight tonight.
The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis remains suppressed across south Florida providing for early morning, light, SWRLY winds across ECFL.
326 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure aloft dominated the majority of the Rockies and Plains. Considerable dry air aloft and subsidence will promote very warm to hot temperatures today and Wednesday as the ridge remains nearly stationary. 700 mb temperatures between 18 and 20 degrees Celsius will yield afternoon temperatures between 90 and 105 degrees, with 70s and 80s for the higher terrain.
On Wednesday, a surface/850 mb warm front will lift back toward the region, as low pressure moves into MN. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s north, and middle to upper 80s south, with slightly cooler readings along the lakeshore.
The upper level high pressure area will make its move today and build over the central U. The main issue today and Wednesday will be the high temperatures, humidity, and subsequent heat index values. As the boundary moves north today, so will the higher dewpoints. We also have to consider the smoke aloft and its affect on the high temperatures for both today and Wednesday.
/issued 255 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021/ A strong U/L ridge over the central plains extends to the southeast U. bridging with another area of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The southern extent of the associated U/L trough will cause a break/weakness in the ridge along the southeast coast and north Florida.
1033 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains to the north, with generally easterly flow aloft across the area for today and tonight.
By 4am the mixing from above finally began to clear out the low clouds and fog locally around the coast. Attention will continue for additional lightning activity today but cloud cover and cooler temperatures may temper increased activity.
524 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure aloft dominated the majority of the Rockies and Plains. Considerable dry air aloft and subsidence will promote very warm to hot temperatures today and Wednesday as the ridge remains nearly stationary. 700 mb temperatures between 18 and 20 degrees Celsius will yield afternoon temperatures between 90 and 105 degrees, with 70s and 80s for the higher terrain.
/issued 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): An inverted trough has developed over the western Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move across Deep South Texas today as it rotates around the base of the mid level ridge.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected today and Wednesday with the focus for thunderstorms expected across northern Inyo and Esmeralda counties. From water vapor satellite imagery this morning, drier mid level air has pushed into southeast California and southern Nevada while high pressure has shifted east to the central Rockies and plains. Although the location of the high maintains a favorable east to west flow across the southwest, there is no discernible wave or feature to assist storm maintenance today other than orographic lift and daytime heating. Ridging on Wednesday is centered over the central plains maintaining a favorable position for steering an easterly wave across Texas.
warm morning in progress across central Indiana with high pressure remaining over the region. Mostly sunny conditions are anticipated with the Ohio Valley residing on the edge of the broad ridge over the central Plains.
At the surface, ridging is starting to build westward after a low pressure near the FL/GA coast moved inland overnight last night. From synopsis, A ridge axis will straddle Florida over the next several days.
1125 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure building into the High Plains today looks to bring some capping to the thunderstorm activity over the northeast CWA. The center of the high will drift farther East into the Central Plains and this looks to pull moisture back into our northeast CWA.
In the vicinity of a weak surface boundary dewpoints have already made it to the low 80s. The high pressure system that has been a dominant feature over the Rockies, slides eastward over us.
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
1137 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Hot upper ridge remains in place today with low level thermal profiles peaking today/Wednesday. Ridge begins its westward shift Wednesday, allowing cold front to slip into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota Wednesday morning. Ridge amplifies over the Rockies going into the weekend, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
The southern plains and our region will remain on the southern periphery of the high. Today and tonight temperatures will remain near to above normal as the highest heights remain to the north of the region.
Rain chances go away starting tomorrow as the upper high over the central plains expands eastward into our area.
A decaying convective complex, and a following cold front, will bring a better chance for widespread showers and storms. High pressure crossing into the Central Appalachians is providing a dry air mass and a mostly sunny sky to the CWA this afternoon.
The upper high continues to remain over the southern and central Plains while the westerlies were north of the border then dipping down into the Great Lakes and northeast states. Dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 70s with temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 99 to 105 degree range at 19Z.
Kept precip chances on the low end for now though given not great confidence in when/where exactly storms will fire. Kept temps warmest southwest tomorrow away from the better precip chances and cooler temps off of Lake Michigan.
250 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Current surface analysis shows a warm front across northern portions of the area, with high pressure well to the northeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the central high plains. The hot conditions will continue for one more day before a back door cold front finally brings some relief for the rest of the week. The cold front will slowly move south across the area during the daytime hours, with good potential for breezy conditions to develop behind the front, especially across northern areas.
High pressure aloft and low level onshore flow will maintain a dry pattern across the region this week. The upper ridge will build closer to the Pacific Northwest around midweek, allowing for notably warmer conditions during the second half of the week.
High clouds are filtering in over the CWA early this afternoon as a weak disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge to our north and west. Our chance for rain goes up a bit more on Wednesday as an inverted trough/mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico moves inland over northern Mexico. On the backside of this low, increased lift and enhanced southeasterly surface flow will result in isolated to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The center of an upper level high was moving into central Nebraska today. The Panhandles are under an easterly flow to the south of this high. The upper level high builds southward into Kansas on Wednesday.
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. Models suggest the pattern will amplify as the mid/upper level ridge builds through western Canada and a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS.
232 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper high centered over the Western High Plains will continue to build over the forecast area through Wednesday.
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A stretch of sultry July weather continues across the Ozarks, with highs expected to climb into the low to mid-90s and high humidity.
Wednesday will see the high's center settle over the Southern and Central Plains.
1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure is in place over the forecast area keeping winds light and conditions predominantly VFR. Very warm and humid conds have been noted overnight, with predawn temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Expect highs the next 2 days to warm into the lower and mid 90s at most locations.
225 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Warm and humid conditions will continue tonight into Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds to the northwest and a jet max drops southeast through northern MN into the Great Lakes. A wave moves through ND into northern MN tonight and increases westerly warm air advection in the low to mid levels. There is some instability and decent DCAPE so hail to the size of quarters, freezing level about 14,000 feet AGl, and wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible. Overall there may be an isolated severe storm but high freezing levels, a lack of shear and minor instability do not promote very strong updrafts and threats for hail and wind.
1118 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure aloft dominated the majority of the Rockies and Plains. Considerable dry air aloft and subsidence will promote very warm to hot temperatures today and Wednesday as the ridge remains nearly stationary. 700 mb temperatures between 18 and 20 degrees Celsius will yield afternoon temperatures between 90 and 105 degrees, with 70s and 80s for the higher terrain.
High pressure over Colorado continues to spread monsoonal moisture across the western U.
310 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday. This will drive a cold front southward into central South Dakota. A slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night after midnight across north central NE, as the cold front drops into the area.
An impulse rounding the upper ridge over the western and central CONUS has pushed a band of showers across the forecast area this morning, with some areas reporting anywhere from a trace to.
This wedge of high pressure will slide east tonight allowing return low level south-southwesterly flow into the region this evening. This will help push a stationary front northward into the southern CWA as a warm front. South of the warm front is a pool of elevated, unstable air. With elevated weak to moderate instability and forcing from LLJ/warm front combo, thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight tonight.
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. At the moment, the highest potential for stronger storms looks to be south of the region, or at least close to the MI/WI stateline, where CAMS guidance organizes the cluster of storms into an MCS and sends it southeastward over the upper level ridge.
Winds will still be light, but the highest storm chances (30-40%) will be across Central TX.
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis along with mid level water vapor continue to show a large dome of high pressure over much of the western portion of the country, and a trough east. Latest models continue to show the upper ridge to shift over the Plains region during the short term period. Over the next 72 hours, surface conditions will keep a southerly fetch over the area, as lee-side troughing over the eastern Rockies and high pressure east sets up the expected gradient, and subsequent WAA.
Cloud cover last night kept temperatures on the mild side, but that same cloud cover provided the area with a little protection from the sun this morning keeping the morning temperatures a bit cooler than yesterday. This will help support some pop up showers and thunderstorms mainly where the highest PWATs are located. The higher PWATs will stick around through the day on Wednesday keeping the chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
With temperatures in the low to mid-90s and dewpoints in the mid-70s, heat index values have reached well into the triple digits today. Wednesday Ridging and ample low level moisture will continue into Wednesday, propelling temperatures into the upper 90s.
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 At the start of the forecast period, a large upper-level high is positioned in the Front Range, with ridging across the western two-thirds of the country. Some troughing in New England is directing northwesterly flow aloft to our north, with the active storm track tomorrow from Minnesota to northern Indiana.
It will remain warm though the overnight with lows dropping only into the lower 70s.
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Broad upper level ridging over the central US is beginning to shift east over this short term period. At the surface, a high pressure system to the north will continue to sink south into the region. Due to this upper level and surface ridging, the short term period will remain dry and skies mostly clear until the end of the period, where some higher clouds may begin to stream into the region. The ridging will also bring higher temps, dew points, and subsequently, heat indices into the region tomorrow. Models agree that temps will be in the low-mid 90s tomorrow with heat indices approaching 100F, some areas reaching slightly higher than 100F. The highest temps and heat indices will generally be west of I-65.
1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains to the north, with generally easterly flow aloft across the area for today and tonight.
A mid/upper level inverted trough draped along the TX and Mexico coast will move west across the region tonight. By Wednesday afternoon the trough axis is progged to be just west of S TX. 7 to 2 inches which shifts west with the trough.
254 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A cold front will cross the region this evening with a round of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front conditions will clear with drier air and high pressure moving in for Wednesday.
Then cooler and drier for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. The main westerlies across North America will amplify during the period, with a longwave ridge position in the west, with a trough in the east.
509 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The main concerns in the short term period are the hot temperatures and associated Maximum Heat Index values in the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the late afternoon and early evening as ambient air temperatures and heat index values in a couple of locations across southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are currently in the lower 100s.
With the inverted trough across South Texas allowing more moisture to filter into South Central Texas, think that this scenario will play out once more. High clouds are filtering in over the CWA early this afternoon as a weak disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge to our north and west. Our chance for rain goes up a bit more on Wednesday as an inverted trough/mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico moves inland over northern Mexico. On the backside of this low, increased lift and enhanced southeasterly surface flow will result in isolated to scattered showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Warm and humid conditions will continue tonight into Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds to the northwest and a jet max drops southeast through northern MN into the Great Lakes. A wave moves through ND into northern MN tonight and increases westerly warm air advection in the low to mid levels. There is some instability and decent DCAPE so hail to the size of quarters, freezing level about 14,000 feet AGl, and wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible. Overall there may be an isolated severe storm but high freezing levels, a lack of shear and minor instability do not promote very strong updrafts and threats for hail and wind.
344 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The main concerns in the short term period are the hot temperatures and associated Maximum Heat Index values in the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the late afternoon and early evening as ambient air temperatures and heat index values in a couple of locations across southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are currently in the lower 100s.
At the start of the forecast period, a large upper-level high is positioned in the Front Range, with ridging across the western two-thirds of the country. Some troughing in New England is directing northwesterly flow aloft to our north, with the active storm track tomorrow from Minnesota to northern Indiana.
The main concerns in the short term period are the hot temperatures and associated Maximum Heat Index values in the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the late afternoon and early evening as ambient air temperatures and heat index values in a couple of locations across southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are currently in the lower 100s.
Broad upper level ridging over the central US is beginning to shift east over this short term period. At the surface, a high pressure system to the north will continue to sink south into the region. Due to this upper level and surface ridging, the short term period will remain dry and skies mostly clear until the end of the period, where some higher clouds may begin to stream into the region. The ridging will also bring higher temps, dew points, and subsequently, heat indices into the region tomorrow. Models agree that temps will be in the low-mid 90s tomorrow with heat indices approaching 100F, some areas reaching slightly higher than 100F. The highest temps and heat indices will generally be west of I-65.
Upper high centered over the Western High Plains will continue to build over the forecast area through Wednesday.
640 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A stretch of sultry July weather continues across the Ozarks, with highs expected to climb into the low to mid-90s and high humidity.
A large-scale composite analysis revealed a huge, deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the middle of North America, with a smaller circulation north of the Greater Antilles. A ridge axis will straddle Florida over the next several days.
The inverted trough that brought deep monsoon moisture, cloud cover and showers is pushing into the far northern part of our area. Unfortunately the showers have not added up to much given the dry low levels but some areas mainly in the higher elevations did pick up a few hundredths to around 0. This Sharpe cut off will continue to push north during the afternoon and evening as the inverted trough pushes north and we will also see any shower activity diminish. Overall quieter weather is expected for the rest of the week as the Desert southwest ridge pushes back east.
533 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Current surface analysis shows a warm front across northern portions of the area, with high pressure well to the northeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the central high plains. The hot conditions will continue for one more day before a back door cold front finally brings some relief for the rest of the week. The cold front will slowly move south across the area during the daytime hours, with good potential for breezy conditions to develop behind the front, especially across northern areas.
A cool front tonight will dampen down high temperatures and set them in the low to mid 90s for the rest of this week and this weekend.
With slightly lower dew points due to the frontal boundary sagging south, temperatures may drop a couple degrees cooler than last night and we may not have quite as much fog coverage.
A mid level trough down the eastern seaboard eases into the northeast Gulf of Mexico and north FL tonight as ridging extends over the central Gulf coast from the central plains and ridging is centered east of the Bahamas. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches westward. A high pressure ridge axis resides near the Florida Keys going into the weekend with southwest to west winds.
Another hot day in store tomorrow with less chances of rain as mid level ridge builds over the Southern Plains, and deeper moisture continues to be pushed southward.
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday. This will drive a cold front southward into central South Dakota. A slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night after midnight across north central NE, as the cold front drops into the area.
Drier and warmer conditions expected today and Wednesday as more stable air moves into the region, though isolated thunderstorms in the higher terrain and across the southern Great Basin possible each afternoon.
249 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Today will be cooler, at least compared to yesterday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s for most locations. This is mostly due to the main core of the high being east of the area, and a push of monsoonal moisture. As a weak move moves around the ridge tonight, that chance will spread across the area. Winds will continue to be a little gusty today out of the east today, behind a cold front that moved in last evening.
154 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Models show upper level ridge center remaining parked over Kansas this period. The combination of hot temperatures and the high humidity levels will create dangerous afternoon heat indices once again for today.