Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
208 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Lingering low and mid-level cloud cover continues to steadily clear out this afternoon in the wake of our departing low pressure system. Warm-air advection aloft and sunny skies will result in a much warmer day. with afternoon highs 8-10 degrees warmer on Saturday than on Friday.
A closed low moving over western SD will eventually merge with main northern stream flow and shift east across the upper midwest. The low level moisture has also eroded as stratus has dissipated across the area. The southern extension of the main 700mb - 500mb trough axis associated with departing closed low will cross the Panhandles tonight with a trailing surface inflection.
The highest rain chances will generally be across the southern half of the area (~60%) with slightly lower chances across the north.
313 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 An upper level closed low will march across MN/WI Saturday.
318 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to NY and PA through Saturday.
CLL/UTS/CXO are the only real threats tomorrow morning as some ridging moves into the area and drier air along with it.
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low centered across far southwest SD and the northern NE Panhandle early this afternoon. The low is slowly drifting to the east. The center of the upper low will drift east along the NE/SD border overnight and be centered near Yankton in southeast SD by sunrise Saturday morning. The lift and moisture will be located east of the area by then with Saturday expected to be a dry and warmer day. Winds will increase some from the northwest, with a warmer Pacific airmass and downslope wind component bringing highs back into the 70s. Upper level ridging builds east and northeast across the central and southern plains for the first half of the coming week.
1038 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low will meander over western Nebraska today before finally pulling away from the area on Saturday.
1139 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A pesky upper low currently over southeast Wyoming is expected to push into the Nebraska Pinedale or southwest S.
With the mid- level low over the western Dakotas being held at bay by ridging over the Great Lakes, high pressure at the surface has kept the region dry and mostly cloud free. By 2pm, most stations across Upper Michigan had temps in the low 60s. As the low lifts into the region during the day, expect the rain showers to continue progressing toward the east/northeast through the day.
This really appears to be an outstanding day setting up for us as the upper low slides off to the east of our area and we see a good deal of afternoon sunshine. We will see a return of a western United States upper level ridge that will track into the plains and flatten out, but the jet stream will remain well north of our forecast area.
The upper level low that has been affecting our area for the last several days is finally beginning to move to the northeast out of our area. More scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the far eastern portion of the forecast area in northwest Arkansas along what is left of the stalled cold front.
222 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Mid-level clouds and maybe a few sprinkles are sneaking into our far SE CWA as the large upper level low pressure system slides from Wyoming northeastward over South and North Dakota, glancing us as it goes.
342 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A cold front will edge southward into the Carolinas tonight into Saturday.
934 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low crossing eastern Wyoming was bringing bands of light showers into southeastern areas this morning. STP Upper low over eastern Wyoming will advect showers into our southeast zones today along with cloud cover. This will mean cooler temperatures in these areas today. As the upper low tracks east any shower activity in our east/southeast will end by this evening. High pressure will slowly build over the Rockies for the weekend.
334 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Challenges/impacts in the short term will be clouds and precip coverage as upper low pressure system moves across SD into southern MN. As the low slides to the east the wrap around/def zone precip shield is expected to bring some shower redevelopment tomorrow morning to the southern valley and all but extreme NW MN. Rainfall totals are expected to be in the half inch or less range with the highest amounts in the Park Rapids area.
This afternoon's water vapor satellite imagery shows a tightly wrapped upper level trough positioned over the tri-state region of CO/WY/NE. By tomorrow the trough will be lifting into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region as the closed low begins to open. Behind this system, we will gradually climb back to near normal temperatures in the lower 80s by midweek. The cold front is expected to start moving into far NW Missouri by late in the period.
Fairly tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning, with an area of high pressure across Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley still being the more dominant weather feature. This has resulted in a sunny sky this morning and subsequently good heating as temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s as of 1530Z. However, a weak inverted trough will slowly begin to creep north from the Gulf Coast today. The end result will be a subtle increase in moisture as dewpoints return to the lower 70s. The main impact may be the return to the summer-like heat and humidity as highs peak in the lower 90s, with heat index values close to 100 degrees by mid/late afternoon.
952 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Current forecast remains on track for the morning update as a ridge of high pressure noses in aloft, maintaining a dry northerly flow which will allow for mainly clear skies through the day. High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a dry northwesterly flow across the Great Basin today. This high will move east during the upcoming weekend bringing a warming trend.
944 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Sent an update this morning to include the mention of sprinkles in our far SE Wibaux County as the low pressure system slowly moves from Wyoming into South Dakota today.
238 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Pronounced closed upper level low currently centered near the NE/WY/SD border has resulted in a band of showers lifting east/northeastward thru our area this afternoon.
As warm, dry conditions persist under strengthening high pressure, wildfire smoke has begun to increase across north central Idaho and western Montana.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as high pressure to the north noses southward across the region. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 84 71 / 20 60 40 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 88 71 84 70 / 20 60 30 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 84 69 / 20 60 40 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 68 83 67 / 20 50 30 70 50.
Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the 60s and 70s with tomorrow night about 3-5 degrees warmer than tonight.
High pressure to our north continues to keep the front locked over the region through the night tonight, but will be slowly moving east during the night allowing the front to slowly dissipate and shift north early Saturday. This allows for slightly warmer temps tonight staying in the mid to upper 50s and warmer high temps on Saturday rising to around 80 degrees. The large scale pattern is setup in a weak trough over the east and weak ridge over the west allowing a pattern with seasonable temperatures and high pressure systems passing through the flow keeping us on the drier side during at least the first half of the next work week.
300 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 The upper level closed low will continue to weaken as it lifts through the central and northern Plains tonight into the upper Mississippi River Valley by Saturday afternoon. A trough associated with this feature will traverse the region tonight. Enough instability and lift looks to exists for some showers/storms to continue ahead of this trough. The upper level system continues to push into the Great Lakes region Saturday night as high pressure at the surface begins to build southeastward into the area from Nebraska and Kansas. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
An upper level ridge will lead to diminished chances for rain tonight through Saturday. High temperatures for Saturday will warm back into the low to mid 90s as the clouds clear out.
314 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Persistent stratus shield extends as far south as the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways as of 19Z, but is gradually eroding from the southern edge, while south-central Kentucky has a respectable diurnal Cu field and temps about 10 degrees warmer. A once closed upper low over the Northern Plains continues to open up and gets absorbed by the main upper-level flow and becomes a trough.
The weekend will see the return of more seasonable temperatures across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas despite a weak cold front moving the region Saturday night. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue into mid week as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late week with an influx of tropical moisture in advance of an approaching cold front.
222 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 The closed low that is spinning across the Nebraska Panhandle will slowly drift northeast overnight tonight. We'll see much warmer temperatures than today as an 850 mb warm nose moves in and mixes down with modestly steep lapse rates. A cold front approaches Saturday night.
Weak low pressure/trough near the se coast of Florida will move west across south Florida through Saturday. Temperatures near average will continue with increased easterly winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south.
417 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A weak low pressure center is currently moving west between the northwest Bahamas and South Florida. NHC has increased the 48-hour probability of tropical cyclone formation to 70 percent, and this is most likely after the system emerges over the Gulf tomorrow. Even if the system forms into a tropical cyclone sooner, the Keys will be on the left or south side, thereby limiting wind.
Water vapor imagery as of early afternoon shows a deep closed upper low across the central high plains with a plume of moisture advecting north ahead of the trough into the Upper MS Valley. A few additional showers through the afternoon are possible as the upper low approaches.
Otherwise, expect mild temperatures with lows in the low 70s. The persistent ridging/high pressure system aloft will slowly be ushered toward the Atlantic Coast as an upper low tracks east over the Northern Plains. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place as a result of a northward moving warm front extending into the Ohio Valley.
/Tonight through Saturday night/ The aforementioned cold front moved slightly to the east over the past 24 hours and is now located generally along a line from De Queen Arkansas to Texarkana to Lufkin Texas. Across East Texas and SE Oklahoma, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, with upper 80s to low 90s across the remainder of the region. Still expecting high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, although temperatures could be a bit cooler if rain and cloud cover moves in faster than anticipated.
However, the closed low off to the west will open up and strengthen as it move towards the Upper Midwest later today. A closed upper low that was over the southwest U. The closed upper low will weaken and become an open upper wave when it reaches the Upper Midwest Saturday night.
Any drier time will be brief though, because the stationary front, currently sitting over southern MO, will lift north this afternoon at the same time the closed upper level low is approaching the region. A record was set again yesterday (9/10), with the high temperature at MCI only reaching 57 degrees. However, there will be one last chance for a quick shower or storm Saturday afternoon, mainly along and west of I-35, as a weak cold front moves through the area. High pressure will move in at the surface with the upper level ridge over the western U. The cold front is expected to start moving into far NW Missouri by late in the period.
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to NY and PA through Saturday.
The first broad trough of low pressure is located over the north central Gulf of Mex. This system will likely ride along the south side of the elongated 500 mb ridge resulting in a general westward or southwestward motion. gov A general weakness in the 500 mb ridging over the Gulf Coast region will also combine with the daytime heating to help maintain the conv chcs throughout next Fri. The ECMWF temps are slightly warmer versus the GFS numbers but not by much. Broad surface troffing will initially prevail over the Mid Gulf Coast and southwards while broad surface ridging will prevail northward over the eastern States.
129 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with approaching low pressure. Quiet weather will prevail as high pressure to our north continues to drive cooler air across the region. Increasing subsidence and dry advection will suppress the low level cloudiness as the afternoon progresses so no change was needed for the seasonable high temperature prognosis. Low pressure digging toward the Upper Mississippi Valley will develop return flow over the Uppper Ohio on Saturday.
The closed low that is spinning across the Nebraska Panhandle will slowly drift northeast overnight tonight. We'll see much warmer temperatures than today as an 850 mb warm nose moves in and mixes down with modestly steep lapse rates. A cold front approaches Saturday night.
However, after sunset the progress slowed down a bit and actually we're seeing a bit of redevelopment of the low deck. Still think we'll see this low deck mix out later tonight. Persistent stratus shield extends as far south as the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways as of 19Z, but is gradually eroding from the southern edge, while south-central Kentucky has a respectable diurnal Cu field and temps about 10 degrees warmer. A once closed upper low over the Northern Plains continues to open up and gets absorbed by the main upper-level flow and becomes a trough.
Upper level short wave trough rotating around the closed low over Northern Nebraska has managed to develop a line of showers over Hitchcock County. Am somewhat surprised that the trough has managed to turn around the declining trend of the weakening showers.
304 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 An upper level low will continue moving away from the area tonight and Sat, while an upper ridge moves into the Great Basin. This will lead to dry weather over the area, and even warmer temps on Sat. Tonight's low temps are expected to mostly be in the 40s across the southeast plains, with upper 20s and lower 30s in the high valleys, with is below average. On Saturday, highs should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the I-25 corridor, in the lower to mid 80s over the far southeast plains and mostly in the 60s in the high valleys. These highs are around average for the plains, and slightly below average for the high valleys.
This afternoon's water vapor satellite imagery shows a tightly wrapped upper level trough positioned over the tri-state region of CO/WY/NE. By tomorrow the trough will be lifting into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region as the closed low begins to open. Behind this system, we will gradually climb back to near normal temperatures in the lower 80s by midweek.
330 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 The last vintages of the rainfall from the wrap around moisture of the exiting low pressure center (which is now centered over the western South Dakota/Nebraska border) continues to stream south across Johnson and Natrona counties this afternoon. A chilly night tonight is expected with temperatures freezing or below in the west tonight, and 30s and 40s expected east. The warming trend will continue Saturday with highs mainly 75 to 80 as the flat ridge builds in from the west.
532 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with approaching low pressure. Wind will begin to shift from the south overnight with approaching low pressure and warm advection will offer increasing cloud cover by Saturday morning.
637 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 An upper level closed low will march across MN/WI Saturday.
941 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 An upper level closed low will march across MN/WI Saturday.
730 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A cold front will edge southward into the Carolinas tonight into Saturday.
1018 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A cold front will edge southward into the Carolinas tonight into Saturday.
High pressure transitioning eastward across the area this weekend will result in light winds and warmer temperatures. Enhanced fire danger is possible late in the week as troughing increases winds over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest.
906 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Mostly clear skies continue tonight underneath an upper level ridge over the Southeast. Later tonight, dew points continue to surge into the low to mid 70s, keeping overnight low temperatures in a similar range. The persistent ridging/high pressure system aloft will slowly be ushered toward the Atlantic Coast as an upper low tracks east over the Northern Plains. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place as a result of a northward moving warm front extending into the Ohio Valley.
320 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Wrap around moisture on the south and southwest side of the upper level low will produce isolated shower activity over the northern mountains and northern plains for a few more hours this afternoon. As daytime heating comes to an end and the upper low moves further to the northeast this evening, showers will dissipate. The moderate westerly flow pattern that is replacing the upper level low will produce some gusty winds over the high mountains and eastern slopes through this evening.
Northern coastal areas will also see showers and isolated storms continuing overnight, with PoPs 30-40%, while the lowest chances will be over interior portions of central Floria, with 20-30% PoPs. Gusty squalls will continue through the overnight, with the highest chances along the offshore from the Treasure Coast.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer into the weekend.
Light showers around Ekalaka will continue to decrease through midnight as the low continues to move east. Reimer Showers and clouds over far eastern areas will decrease into the evening as an upper low over eastern Wyoming continues to shift east. High pressure will slowly build over the region this weekend allowing for temperatures to warm into the 70s and 80s. Along with the warmer temperatures, westerly flow aloft will advect smoke from western wildfires into the area.
615 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 The upper level closed low will continue to weaken as it lifts through the central and northern Plains tonight into the upper Mississippi River Valley by Saturday afternoon. A trough associated with this feature will traverse the region tonight. Enough instability and lift looks to exists for some showers/storms to continue ahead of this trough. The upper level system continues to push into the Great Lakes region Saturday night as high pressure at the surface begins to build southeastward into the area from Nebraska and Kansas. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Persistent stratus shield extends as far south as the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways as of 19Z, but is gradually eroding from the southern edge, while south-central Kentucky has a respectable diurnal Cu field and temps about 10 degrees warmer. A once closed upper low over the Northern Plains continues to open up and gets absorbed by the main upper-level flow and becomes a trough.
Previous Discussion: Mid-level clouds and maybe a few sprinkles are sneaking into our far SE CWA as the large upper level low pressure system slides from Wyoming northeastward over South and North Dakota, glancing us as it goes.
918 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with approaching low pressure. Wind will begin to shift from the south overnight with approaching low pressure and warm advection will offer increasing cloud cover by Saturday morning.
500 mb low in central SD and moisture flow east of the low is slowly moving east then wrapping back northwest to the north side of the low into E ND. Challenges/impacts in the short term will be clouds and precip coverage as upper low pressure system moves across SD into southern MN. As the low slides to the east the wrap around/def zone precip shield is expected to bring some shower redevelopment tomorrow morning to the southern valley and all but extreme NW MN. Rainfall totals are expected to be in the half inch or less range with the highest amounts in the Park Rapids area.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 72 85 71 / 20 60 40 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 70 85 70 / 20 60 30 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 70 84 70 / 20 60 30 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 66 83 67 / 20 40 30 60 50.
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Pronounced closed upper level low currently centered near the NE/WY/SD border has resulted in a band of showers lifting east/northeastward thru our area this afternoon.
925 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide eastward tonight and off of the New England coast on Saturday.
730 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide eastward tonighit and off of the New England coast on Saturday.
1053 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this evening shows a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the eastern United States, with deep easterlies covering most of the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. A fledgling tropical cyclone was centered over the Straits of Florida, between the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Peninsula, moving west-northwestward. Geostationary satellite and Doppler radar animations reveal an active mesoscale convective system over Santaren Channel, south of the low-level cyclone center. Mean sea level pressure has fallen 5-6 millibars during the last 24 hours at both KEYW and KMTH, an observation consistent with an approaching tropical wave/cyclone.
Stratus appears to be a certainty with upper level low moving through the region Saturday morning. With the upper low, have expanded shower potential a bit through the day Saturday. Pronounced closed upper level low currently centered near the NE/WY/SD border has resulted in a band of showers lifting east/northeastward thru our area this afternoon.
714 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures remain well-below normal this afternoon, but are 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday and climbing through the 60s. As the upper low (over the Wyoming/Nebraska border this afternoon) moves east- northeast across parts of far southern South Dakota tonight, the flow aloft over our area will weaken and veer to the west. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are in store for Saturday afternoon, with highs expected to be in the mid 80s.
Once the cold front moves through, dry weather will return, along with the continuation of seasonal temperatures. Not expecting fog to develop, but with the low stratus and widespread rainfall, expect visby's to drop overnight into the morning. The persistent upper low has made it to the northwest Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, and is projected to be centered near Minneapolis by Saturday evening.
620 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper level short wave trough rotating around the closed low over Northern Nebraska has managed to develop a line of showers over Hitchcock County. Am somewhat surprised that the trough has managed to turn around the declining trend of the weakening showers.
736 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to NY and PA through Saturday.