Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon was showing a well defined ridge situated over the west coast with a deep positive tilt trof extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains. high pressure was in control over the western half of the CONUS. Models in good agreement that large scale flow will not be too progressive into and through this weekend with a mean ridge west/trof east with a series of vort maxes dropping into the upper/mid MS region.
115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure overnight and Friday.
359 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 /Today and Tonight/ High clouds that were southeast of a Comanche to Bonham line at 3 AM will move out of the forecast area by mid morning as the base of an upper level trough moves eastward.
Clouds and light winds to keep temps up overnight across the area with lows expected to be in the teens, warmest in the west and south and cooler in the north and east. Ahead of the system westerly SFC winds will again allow a quick temp rise into the upper 20s and even lower 30s along the valley and to the west before the cold front pushes through and winds shift to the north. Flurries and light snow is expected along and or in the wake of the cold front with some strong gusts from the NW.
223 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A trough axis will move across the area early in the period shifting winds to the northwest with rising heights/increasing thickness in it's wake. Abundant mid clouds/virga will be present early in the period, but the lower half of the column appears to dry for any flurries to reach the ground.
The lowest so far has been at the Buffalo mesonet site (10 degrees). Trended toward the colder end of guidance based on the low dew points, light winds, and mostly clear skies (for most locations). Slightly warmer temperatures are expected across northwest Oklahoma, where clouds and winds may increase toward morning.
Aloft, water vapor channel imagery shows a closed mid-upper low moving eastward across the Texas Panhandle. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected behind a cold front this evening and overnight with a northerly wind. A better chance for additional thunderstorms will begin by early to mid afternoon, as a cold front begins to move across northern and western Oklahoma. Rain and storm chances will diminish this evening into the overnight hours, as a mid and upper level trough moves east of Oklahoma.
Moisture and energy, ahead of a cold front, continue to flow in across the Interior Northwest from the south this morning. The cold front will move across the region this afternoon, reaching Wallowa county by 5 PM.
905 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain south of the region today.
1010 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a tightly wound low pressure system over the Oklahoma with a strong ridge of upper level high pressure dominating southern Florida. Maximum temperatures are on track to reach the mid to upper 80s along the coasts and up to the low to mid 90s inland. /issued 413 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Broad and deep high pressure remains in place across the region, keeping generally warm and dry conditions over South Florida through the rest of the week. With prevailing light to moderate winds today, expect max temps to reach the lower to mid 90s over portions of the interior peninsula, along with max temps over the metro areas near 90.
1036 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
The cold front will sweep moisture out early tomorrow with sky slower to clear. Severe threat is the result of an upper-trough across the Four Corners region ejecting east into the Ozarks by this evening. Upper-trough will aid in destabilizing the ArkLaTex during a time of peak heating. Temperatures on Friday to climb into the mid to upper 70s as Canadian high pressure shifts south and east.
The approaching area of low pressure and associated cold front are expected to reach into the area later today. Slight chance of some afternoon thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the Boise and West Central Mountains.
At the surface, high pressure will start to edge further south and east ahead of the next storm system associated with the aforementioned trough. Based on cloud cover and precipitation across the region Friday, temperatures will be running a bit cooler as compared to today.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: Upper level ridge will build into Montana today. This will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures. Upper ridge continues to move east tonight and will be over Eastern Montana on Friday. Tightening surface gradient ahead of the low will bring stronger southeast winds on Friday which may require a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. The ridge moves into the Dakotas Friday Night and flow aloft turns to the southwest.
VFR to MVFR cigs to lower to MVFR during the TAF period at all sites as TSRA coverage increase as a cold front and upper system approach. Ultimately by early afternoon sufficient instability and deep layer shear is expected to reside across much of the forecast area with storms becoming most numerous ahead of the upper low and along the advancing cold front. Large hail, possibly damaging size, is the most likely hazard with the initial storms with an increasing potential for locally damaging winds as the storms become more numerous and the cold front continues southeastward. Lingering showers persist into Friday along with cooler temps.
At the surface, a cold front stretched from western OK to the northeast corner of Val Verde county. The cold front will move slowly across our CWA as the upper low ejects and opens as it moves across the southern plains.
1002 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper level ridge will remain over the region today with a frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic States. The upper ridge will begin breaking down tonight as low pressure crosses the Lower MS River Valley and into the Carolinas Friday night.
1045 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Morning shwrs continue across E TX/SE OK ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system. Later, the developing cold front will merge with the dryline, and the storms will move through the remainder of our region during the overnight hours. The cold front will sweep moisture out early tomorrow with sky slower to clear. Severe threat is the result of an upper-trough across the Four Corners region ejecting east into the Ozarks by this evening. Upper-trough will aid in destabilizing the ArkLaTex during a time of peak heating. Temperatures on Friday to climb into the mid to upper 70s as Canadian high pressure shifts south and east.
The high resolution Convection Allowing Models (CAM), as well as the Canadian (CMCnh) and European (ECMWF) have a reasonable bead on this convection and were combined in the regional model blended guidance for this precipitation event.
/issued 254 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with more clouds over the region as highs mainly in the lower 80s. By tonight, the cold front will move into the forecast area with more thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 60s. On Friday, the cold front will move through the remainder of the forecast area with more thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs in the low to mid 70s. The cold front should be east of the forecast area by Friday night with rain ending by Friday evening.
Highs still in the lower to middle 80s (a bit cooler atop the Cumberland Plateau). An additional opportunity for strong storms will accompany the cold front later on Friday afternoon into the evening. The primary impact with both of these episodes would be small hail though there could be some isolated instances of large hail with pulse-like storms in this low shear environment.
For today, expect dry weather and significantly warmer temperatures than yesterday as a fast moving ridge crosses northern Arizona. Beginning Friday, near normal temperatures and gusty southwest winds are forecast as a broad trough sets up over the western United States.
1219 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain south of the region today.
This low pressure system will move slowly eastward into north central Oklahoma by late this afternoon.
1052 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Low pressure will move across south-central Ohio today bringing rain showers to much of the state through the morning hours.
/issued 413 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Broad and deep high pressure remains in place across the region, keeping generally warm and dry conditions over South Florida through the rest of the week. With prevailing light to moderate winds today, expect max temps to reach the lower to mid 90s over portions of the interior peninsula, along with max temps over the metro areas near 90.
A rapid warmup will occur through Friday as the cool upper low moves off to the east.
Drier/cooler air will funnel in today into tonight in wake of MCV with more moderate/widespread rain across far ne IN/sc Lower MI/nw OH ending by 10z.
638 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017 A cold front will move across the TAF sites later today and satellite loops shows a MVFR cloud deck developing behind the leading edge of the front. The upper low that has brought the active weather to the region the past few days was seen spinning from northeast New Mexico into the western Panhandles early this morning. Instead this lift will shift east today with a cold front plunging through the FA this afternoon in the wake of the departing upper low. In addition, there may be just enough heating and moisture near the cold core of the upper low, that when combined with the frontal forcing, isolated showers and storms wrapping around the departing system could clip the far northeast zones.
950 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Cold front extends roughly along I-70 back into southwest Missouri. Also made some minor downward adjustments to the high temperatures today, as clouds remain extensive. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they have been in recent days. Upper troughing will dig into the Great Lakes on Friday, giving the persistent front a solid push southward out of the region. The trough will shift eastward over the weekend, allowing upper ridging to build into the Midwest.
By Friday, the boundary starts to settle into the Tennessee Valley with much cooler northerly flow over central Kentucky. Another impulse ejecting out of the low over the southern Plains will support likely POPs across south-central KY, but should be more of a heavy rain threat.
/issued 638 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ A cold front will move across the TAF sites later today and satellite loops shows a MVFR cloud deck developing behind the leading edge of the front. The upper low that has brought the active weather to the region the past few days was seen spinning from northeast New Mexico into the western Panhandles early this morning. Instead this lift will shift east today with a cold front plunging through the FA this afternoon in the wake of the departing upper low. In addition, there may be just enough heating and moisture near the cold core of the upper low, that when combined with the frontal forcing, isolated showers and storms wrapping around the departing system could clip the far northeast zones.
Temperatures remain warm enough tonight to layoff the mention of any frost, but some of the "cooler" locations where the radiational cooling is much more prevalent such as the Nish Valley and portions of northern Iowa, the forecast might be slightly too warm in these locations.
An upper ridge over the southeastern states weakens and shifts eastward as an upper trof over the central Plains advances to near the ArkLaTex. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast.
A speed max of 80-90 kts aloft, on the western side of the upper low to our north, dives southeast from Canada tomorrow.
Highs today will reach the lower 90s away from the coast.
Te rest of the area should see clearing skies as high pressure builds from MN. Friday is shaping up to be a nice end of the work week as a ridge of high pressure drifts southeast across the area. Under mostly sunny skies, plan on highs in the middle 60s to the lower 70s.
High pressure aloft will settle across the Great Basin today. Clear skies dominate the forecast area today as a ridge axis moves overhead. This ridging will maintain a light southerly mid-level flow through the day. 30" sets the stage for a chance of afternoon convection over the high terrain. Winds increase tonight ahead of a cold front expected to impact the forecast area tomorrow night.
A cold front will move south across the terminals this evening, with north winds around 10 knots following the frontal passage. For highs today, went with the warmer GFS MOS temperatures due to downslope west winds and sunny skies. It will be cooler tonight as cold front with north winds of 5 to 15 mph moves through.
The low ST deck should be fairly persistent through the morning especially for the northern sites but these clouds may become more broken to scattered in the afternoon. /Issued 532 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ The upper level low pressure system responsible for showers, tstms, and severe thunderstorms the past couple days is now entering the northwest Texas Panhandle as seen on latest water vapor imagery. In addition, a cold front which has moved through the OK Panhandle and parts of the northern Texas Panhandle will continue its southward journey through the remainder of the forecast area this morning, resulting in cooler temperatures for today. The upper level low pressure system should be far enough east and well into Oklahoma by sunset to allow clearing skies with no pops for tonight.
A wetter pattern will develop over the weekend as two troughs of low pressure move into the region.
Satellite imagery shows some high cirrus streaming in overtop the upper ridge which should result in a partly sunny day with temperatures again climbing into the mid 90s over inland locations, but slightly cooler (upper 80s to around 90) along the coast due to the sea breeze. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with west to northwest winds at 10 knots or less this morning increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops.
/issued 346 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ An upper trough is centered over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. As the upper trough moves eastward today, a weak cold front will begin moving into the area. Upper ridging will begin to develop over the region on Friday.
Lifted indices are already -8 deg C in areas southwest of Tulsa and the remainder of E OK/NW AR is expected to become very unstable by early to mid afternoon as upper low approaches from the west. Although low level winds will remain relatively light, the tornado threat is non-zero given the high CAPE/moderate shear environment, especially along any residual boundaries.
Latest HRRR/NAM and GFS renew convection fairly early this afternoon as the lift in the northeast quad of the upper low affects the area where the better instability and higher PWATS will reside. This low pressure system will move slowly eastward into north central Oklahoma by late this afternoon.
738 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Low pressure will move across south-central Ohio today bringing rain showers to much of the state through the morning hours.
Ridge will hold today but show signs of breaking down due to a storm system across the Plains. Highs in the lower 90s despite a slow increase in high clouds through the day today. Highs today will reach the lower 90s away from the coast.
511 AM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper low near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region this morning will move east today, with the precipitation gradually ending. Upper ridge axis will move over the area on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and dry conditions.
1030 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure is keeping skies clear with the exception of an area of persistent mid level clouds along and west of the Missouri River this morning. High pressure moving out of Canada down the Red River Valley will nose into our CWA today. As the high continues south and a lee low forms across Montana, winds will become more southerly and breezy.
Mid/upper level ridge axis was over the eastern Gulf of Mexico but there was some thin cirrus spilling over it into east central Florida. This was due to ridge axis extending across the northern Bahamas/south Florida and into the northeast Gulf.
Water vapour shows upper ridge over the Rockies shifting toward the Plains states.
710 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Low pressure moving slowly eastward through Ohio will bring an end to any lingering light rain or sprinkles during the early morning. The track of the low will also promote northeast flow of dry air in the low levels over the region which will keep MVFR ceiling confined to locations over SW Lower Michigan through the Ohio border area. There is some guidance that suggests MVFR ceiling will be able to leak westward from this trough into SE Michigan overnight through sunrise Friday. Large upper level low positioned over northern Manitoba/northwest Ontario early this morning, with multiple embedded circulations/disturbances rotating about.
A weak cold front had moved into north central WI. Used a blend of the better performing guidance sets for temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 60s today and middle to upper 60s on Friday. Lows tonight will range from the 30s north to the lower to middle 40s south.
1055 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A deep ridge complex is aligned from Central America, through the Gulf of Mexico, into the southern Appalachians. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The large-scale high pressure system which drives our winds is sufficiently weak to allow afternoon sea-breeze circulations to significantly modulate winds across the service area again this afternoon. Onset of the Cuban sea breeze will favor freshening of ENE breezes across the lower Straits of Florida this afternoon.
718 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
/issued 520 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows a deep closed low over northeast New Mexico into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. with a high pressure ridge still anchored over the western Gulf. At the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure extends from the north-central Gulf across Florida into the Bahamas. 14 Upper level blocking pattern continues to break down today as the upper low ejects to the east and the upper ridge continues to flatten and shift eastward in response. As the low progresses east through Friday, a sfc cold front will move across the area. The sfc front exits the region Friday night as passage of the upper trough brings in northwesterly winds aloft.
A quiet couple days are in store for the Northland, as high pressure builds into the region.
Dew points are into the 60s and with highs reaching into the low 80s, CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/Kg are fairly widespread. By tonight, an approaching low pressure system and front will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure moving out of Canada down the Red River Valley will nose into our CWA today. As the high continues south and a lee low forms across Montana, winds will become more southerly and breezy.
The northern most counties are lacking this cloud cover, which will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer than the rest of the CWA due to the additional sunshine. The showers that we have seen so far today, are mostly developing below this cap, and are struggling to strengthen due to this pocket of drier/warmer air in this 875-825mb layer. Also carrying VCSH at CLL and UTS overnight as a cold front moves into the area. A cold front will move off the coast on Friday with a light to moderate offshore flow developing in its wake.
Large upper level low positioned over northern Manitoba/northwest Ontario early this morning, with multiple embedded circulations/disturbances rotating about.
Again, the exception lies with LRD as a trough is expected to move through and keep winds rather light out west, and even turn winds more N-NE-ly briefly this afternoon. Upper level low situated across the Panhandle this morning prog to swing into eastern OK by tonight. In addition, there is also a weak prefrontal trough across the western Brush Country that is prog to shift slightly east today. Much drier conditions are expected behind the front although am not expecting cooler temperatures. In fact, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast, to low to mid 90s farther west under mostly sunny skies.
Large High Pressure Ridge stacked over the GOMEX will keep a Hot and Dry W/NW flow across NE FL/SE GA through Friday.
Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected through the forecast period.
Dry and warmer weather will return today and Friday with some minor cooling expected over the weekend.
Lows tonight will reach range from the upper single digits in our northeastern counties to the lower 20s in our western and southwestern counties. Friday anticipate the lower 30s to upper 50s with some areas in eastern Colorado possibly reaching around 60.
Lows tonight will reach range from the upper single digits in our northeastern counties to the lower 20s in our western and southwestern counties. Friday anticipate the lower 30s to upper 50s with some areas in eastern Colorado possibly reaching around 60. For the rest of the week anticipate a slight warming trend, yet slightly below normal, as the cold air retreats to the east as the ridge rebuilds across the Great Basin and Rockies.
The low clouds have eroded away from nern OK and nwrn AR sites this evening. Strong cold front approaches BVO at the very end of the forecast period and moves through remainder of the area 30/06-12z. On the average the low temperature forecast looks on track.
IFR/LIFR conditions in freezing fog are anticipated, with potential for VLIFR conditions, especially toward daybreak. High- res guidance continues to indicate that CNM/FST will not be affected by the low clouds, though PEQ is more of a toss-up, thus have maintained MVFR fog mention there after 09Z. /issued 138 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ Low clouds and freezing fog have mostly dissipated this afternoon and sunshine has returned across the area. Looking at another shot at fog and freezing fog Friday morning as moisture shoves back west across the area. Upper ridging to our west and consistent troughing over the eastern U.
237 AM MST Fri Dec 29 2017 A relatively dry northwest flow continued over the area as a ridge of high pressure remained over the West Coast early this morning.
These clouds should gradually give way as a cold front moves through by tonight. High pressure will build into the region Friday as temperatures moderate.
Temperatures across the winter weather advisory and warnings area remain at or below freezing. Warmer air should slowly drift north and into north central oregon prior to midnight and then into south central washington later tonight.
Most of the guidance suggests only few to scattered clouds across south central KY tonight, so have kept the highest cloud cover to the north. +1040mb Canadian high pressure near Lake Erie is slowly drifting off to the east. In its wake winds have veered from the north to the east in the lower Ohio Valley. Friday will probably be the "warmest" day of the next 7, as parts of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky stay at or just below the freezing mark, and areas in southern Kentucky reach the mid 30s.
Unusually strong high pressure for this time of year is centered over the southern California coast this morning. This area of high pressure will slowly shift toward Arizona through the weekend, bringing a continuation of the unseasonably warm and dry weather.
As a result, highs may reach the low 30s in northern Kansas, while central Nebraska stays stuck in the teens to mid 20s.