Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear night skies combined with light to calm winds will result in widespread radiational cooling after sundown with another night of subfreezing temperatures. Our upper levels will remain in a trough through Sunday, with afternoon temperatures only rising to the lower 50s but still unseasonably cooler for late November.
220 PM PST Sat Nov 19 2022 Temperatures will remain much below average today, while gusty ridge winds diminish today. A gradual warming trend will begin tomorrow as high pressure builds over the western US. Easterly ridge winds peaked overnight, but are gradually diminishing this afternoon. A stable atmosphere will promote the development of freezing fog yet again in the Mono Basin and around Crowley Lake overnight tonight.
758 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The longwave trough situated over the Midwest continues to move eastward, further enforcing the arctic air over the region. By Thanksgiving Day, a cold front will move over the region, increasing rain chances for the end of the week.
516 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Unseasonably cold weather will persist across central Illinois through Sunday before much warmer conditions arrive for Thanksgiving Week. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy, but will become clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Despite the breeze, the very dry airmass will still cool quite efficiently, allowing low temperatures to bottom out in the lower teens. The ridge axis will quickly shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday, resulting in southwesterly return flow developing by afternoon.
Have lowered overnight temperatures for the high valleys to keep these areas below zero tonight. Weak ridging will provide for continued warming Sunday with highs that are likely to approach or possibly reach 50 degrees across the urban corridor.
Residual northerly breezes down the lower Colorado River Valley are likely, but gusts will be lower than today in the 20 to 25 MPH range. Sunny skies through the afternoon along with height rises means temperatures will be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon compared to today, though they will still be below normal for this time of the year.
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend, with persistent inversions across the northern and western valleys.
344 PM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Very dry northerly flow will remain in place until late Sunday when a transitory ridge begins to back the upper flow to the West. This is the lowest number recorded in the upper air climatology.
235 PM PST Sat Nov 19 2022 Cold overnight lows through the weekend with near-freezing temperatures possible for rural Valley areas. Dry conditions, seasonal daytime temperatures, and cold nights will prevail across interior NorCal this weekend under upper level ridging. Daytime temperatures this weekend will peak in the low to mid 60s in the Valley, mid 50s to mid 60s in the foothills, and 40s to low 60s over the mountains.
518 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a long wave trough of low pressure over the CONUS. Within this trough, the main features of note were a strong trough, which extended from the Hudson Bay in Canada, south into the upper midwest and western Great Lakes. West of this feature, ridging extended up the Pacific NW coast, into the Yukon and Alaska. Winds were northwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH across the area and 2 PM temperatures ranged from the middle 20s over northern Nebraska, to the lower 40s over far southwestern Nebraska.
733 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Unseasonably cold weather will persist across central Illinois through Sunday before much warmer conditions arrive for Thanksgiving Week. 00z surface map indicated a cold front along the Ohio River with a broad area of 1030 mb high pressure over the central and southern Plains. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy, but will become clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Despite the breeze, the very dry airmass will still cool quite efficiently, allowing low temperatures to bottom out in the lower teens. The ridge axis will quickly shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday, resulting in southwesterly return flow developing by afternoon.
652 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Looking at the big picture, there is a deep upper level trough over the Eastern U. with a broad trough axis in place north of the Florida Peninsula.
Highs Sunday will range from the lower 20s northeast to lower 30s southwest.
Highlights: * Near zero wind chill values Sunday morning The Midwest and Ohio Valley are witnessing the brunt of a negative AO pattern, as lobes of vorticity within a larger parent trough continue to push Arctic air over the region. Scattered flurries are likely to develop, especially over northern central Indiana this afternoon/evening within the trough axis. The incoming air mass will be dry, with dew points in the low single digits. More of the same weather will occur tomorrow with high pressure delaying southerly return flow until Sunday night. Expect highs in the low 30s with sustained winds between 10- 15MPH and gusts up to 20MPH.
335 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a long wave trough of low pressure over the CONUS. Within this trough, the main features of note were a strong trough, which extended from the Hudson Bay in Canada, south into the upper midwest and western Great Lakes. West of this feature, ridging extended up the Pacific NW coast, into the Yukon and Alaska. Winds were northwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH across the area and 2 PM temperatures ranged from the middle 20s over northern Nebraska, to the lower 40s over far southwestern Nebraska.
631 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Below normal temperatures, brisk winds and a slight chance of snow showers will accompany the passage of a cold front tonight. Cold and dry weather is forecast for Sunday as high pressure tracks to Kentucky.
214 PM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Very dry northerly flow will remain in place until late Sunday when a transitory ridge begins to back the upper flow to the West. This is the lowest number recorded in the upper air climatology.
Upper level ridge will start to weaken tonight into Sunday.
251 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 A large mid/upper trough continues to reside over the Great Lakes region keeping a northwesterly flow regime over the central plains.
234 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 * Sunshine but Cold Today * Not as Cold Tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure northeast of the Great Lakes. A strong area of cold high pressure was found across OK. This high was expanding its influence through the plains states and eastward into the Ohio Valley. Thus highs in the lower 30s look like the way to go. This will allow for warmer low temps tonight, near 20F. From Thanksgiving onward, model differences again grow, as most guidance depicts a rapid amplification of the upper level flow on the strength of a digging northern stream jet, but there is significant disagreement as to whether this phases with and strengthens a closed low over the Desert Southwest/Rio Grande Valley or results in a broader closed low moving through the Great Lakes.
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 (Tonight) General large scale troughing continued across the greater North American domain. A cold area of high pressure over the east/central CONUS will continuing building eastward, keeping a chilly trend going. As such with clear skies, light winds, and longer nights, low temps will chill into the low/mid 20s.
19Z water vapor imagery shows a high amplitude trough stretching from the Hudson Bay south into the Great Lakes and ridging extended along the west coast into British Columbia. Surface obs showed high pressure over the southern plains with a decent offshore wind along the gulf coast leaving a dry airmass over the region. If there is light precip, the ECMWF keeps temps near the surface in the lower to middle 40s. The main impact may be increasing northwest winds making it feel cooler than the 40s would suggest.
Continued dry and warmer weather is expected through midweek under high pressure. In addition, gusty wind should continue with mixing and a tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure to our NE, and high pressure to our SW.
Discussion: High pressure over the area overnight will slide southeast today with warn air advection getting underway in its wake. Monday, a upper level trough will move through the northern Great Lakes sending a associated cold front towards the area.
Values near and north of Orlando are falling into the low 60s while temps south of Orlando and the Space Coast are still in the 60s to low 70s.
(Tonight) General large scale troughing continued across the greater North American domain. A cold area of high pressure over the east/central CONUS will continuing building eastward, keeping a chilly trend going. As such with clear skies, light winds, and longer nights, low temps will chill into the low/mid 20s.
Surface-based inversion will intensify Sunday as an upper ridge shifts inland over our CWA. The ridge will flatten Monday and a weak Pacific upper trough will pass through Monday night, but neither will remove the inversion.
146 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis has a north-northwesterly upper air flow over the CWA being underneath the rear portion of an upper air trough with a ridge over the Pacific coast. Forecast models show the ridge moving eastward a bit as the trough departs towards the east coast keeping the same flow through the remainder of the day.
Surface ridging will spread from MO-TX into much of E Conus today. It will remain across the SE US through Monday while a low pressure system moves across the E half of Canada dragging a front across the Great Lakes TWD the NE US. So, we should see temperatures allowed to go a little lower tonight with clearing skies behind the front and surface ridging.
(Today through Monday Night ) Broad high pressure will be noted much of the near term from east Texas through Arkansas toward the mid-Atlantic states. Under the high, there will be plenty of sunshine today, but clouds will increase in central/southern sections of the state on Monday. As the flow aloft changes, temperatures will respond by moving a few degrees warmer on Monday than today.
The deep upper trough over the northeast CONUS will be lifting out, and the pattern will begin de-amplifying. A return to westerly flow in the lower levels will allow for eastward expansion of low level thermal ridge. Highs should top out in the upper 40s NW AR into the low 50s across E OK.
We start with a weak upper trough passage, with a shift from southerly to westerly low level flow, which will enhanced mixing across the CWA.
1111 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Unseasonably cold weather will persist across central Illinois through Sunday before much warmer conditions arrive for Thanksgiving Week. 00z surface map indicated a cold front along the Ohio River with a broad area of 1030 mb high pressure over the central and southern Plains. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy, but will become clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Despite the breeze, the very dry airmass will still cool quite efficiently, allowing low temperatures to bottom out in the lower teens. The ridge axis will quickly shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday, resulting in southwesterly return flow developing by afternoon.
These winds with warmer temperatures and dry airmass in place will create a small area of elevated fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma.
Low-level WAA will help keep some areas in the lower 20s, but sheltered areas will likely dip into the teens.
141 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 More winds and a warming trend will continue the next couple days as prominent ridging and high pressure continues to sit over southwest MT. Downslope warming will be very prevalent today and allow temperature to climb into the low 40s in south-central Montana. High pressure will shift and become more localized over SE Idaho and Yellowstone, weakening the west to east pressure gradient that's been in place this entire weekend.
Clear, or clearing skies tonight, as high pressure aloft begins to build in from the west-northwest. Dry conditions, modestly warmer temperatures and light and variable, or light northeast to east winds, are then expected for Sunday and Monday.
A broad long wave trough persists across the CONUS, although the 00Z RAOBs sampled rising mid-level heights across the Plains and the Southeast US. The polar cyclone over the Great Lakes is losing its grip. As the mean layer ridge takes back some real estate, the low-level ridging is lifting north across Florida. Nestled into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is an occluded mid- latitude cyclone with potent convection along its northeastern flank. An expanding area of high pressure over the southeastern United States will lead to strengthening northeast to east breezes over the weekend, with strong breezes increasingly likely by Sunday.
This waa pattern will result in much warmer highs across the FA with widespread 50s. A lee trough will continue across the greater region as well. For tonight, the lee trough will continue across the greater region.
130 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Current surface map places trof across western South Dakota. Western CONUS ridge continues to flatten today with broad area of low level warm advection across the Northern Plains. Weak impulse crosses the Dakotas Monday, allowing weak cold front to slip into northwest South Dakota.
Highs Sunday will range from the lower 20s northeast to lower 30s southwest. Thus Monday will be a little cooler than Sunday, but dry.
1111 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a long wave trough of low pressure over the CONUS. Within this trough, the main features of note were a strong trough, which extended from the Hudson Bay in Canada, south into the upper midwest and western Great Lakes. West of this feature, ridging extended up the Pacific NW coast, into the Yukon and Alaska. Winds were northwesterly at 15 to 25 MPH across the area and 2 PM temperatures ranged from the middle 20s over northern Nebraska, to the lower 40s over far southwestern Nebraska.
A reinforcing cold front is making its way through our area early this morning, which will lead to even cooler temps today compared to yesterday. Luckily for those waiting for warmer weather, this does appear to be the last day of these frigid temps for at least a few days. (Monday Night through next Sunday) With some warmer air returning to the area, do expect for a very pleasant couple of days through at least mid-week.
This should erode the light rain which has been falling near southern Mississippi and Alabama today, and allow for some clearing skies and cooler temps to settle in once again.
1111 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The longwave trough situated over the Midwest continues to move eastward, further enforcing the arctic air over the region. By Thanksgiving Day, a cold front will move over the region, increasing rain chances for the end of the week.
Have lowered overnight temperatures for the high valleys to keep these areas below zero tonight. Weak ridging will provide for continued warming Sunday with highs that are likely to approach or possibly reach 50 degrees across the urban corridor. Upper ridging is over the CWA Sunday night and Monday with weak flow aloft.
Another chance for snow will arrive around the Thanksgiving holiday and temperatures remain below normal, but trending slightly warmer. Low pressure was located over Hudson Bay this afternoon with a cold front extending to eastern Lake Superior into central Wisconsin and then back into the eastern Dakotas. Monday will be mainly dry despite a cold front moving through.
This as the upper trof axis continues to move further east and away from our region and h8 temps moderate rapidly this morning and afternoon.
1021 PM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Very dry northerly flow will remain in place until late Sunday when a transitory ridge begins to back the upper flow to the West. This is the lowest number recorded in the upper air climatology. A transitory ridge will be overhead on Monday, with clear skies and light winds prevailing, although temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below normal.
415 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Weak ridging aloft will keep the clear and tranquil weather going through the early portion of this week. Southwest winds will begin to increase today, especially the higher elevations and the usual prone areas across central WY and off the Cody foothills.
527 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today through Monday night) For today through Monday night, rather typical late November weather is anticipated as the upper level flow is progged to flatten and become more zonal and eventually semi-zonal while a surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern CO and eastern NM.
412 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Current surface map places trof across western South Dakota. Western CONUS ridge continues to flatten today with broad area of low level warm advection across the Northern Plains. Weak impulse crosses the Dakotas Monday, allowing weak cold front to slip into northwest South Dakota.
But overall, mostly quiet weather as an upper level ridge continues to weaken.
Areas of freezing fog have developed across Lincoln County and in the Flathead and Mission valleys.
The high pressure today will be fairly short- lived with another low pressure system sliding east across southern Canada. The trailing front that will slide through tonight, however, will be dry with a lack of moisture in the low to mid levels.
(Today through Monday night) For today through Monday night, rather typical late November weather is anticipated as the upper level flow is progged to flatten and become more zonal and eventually semi-zonal while a surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern CO and eastern NM.
320 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Our mini cold snap is behind us, with high temperatures near 30 today and tomorrow, and getting above freezing later in the week.
325 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma will drift east into the Tennessee Valley today, and then into the Mid Atlantic Region tonight. Light and variable wind early this morning will turn to the southwest and strengthen today as the high drifts east.
Regional surface observations locate the high pressure center over the Ozark Plateau with an eastward shift towards the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight. Low-level WAA will help keep some areas in the lower 20s, but sheltered areas will likely dip into the teens.
KEY MESSAGES: - Our mini cold snap is behind us, with high temperatures near 30 today and tomorrow, and getting above freezing later in the week.
537 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma will drift east into the Tennessee Valley today, and then into the Mid Atlantic Region tonight. Light and variable wind early this morning will turn to the southwest and strengthen today as the high drifts east.
Ridging over southern CONUS has maintained a tight gradient over the Keys and Gulf waters, resulting in fresh to strong northeasterly flow.
A band of lake enhanced snow is expected to drop south across the I-80 area as boundary layer flow shift more to the WNW in the wake of an exiting trough. In addition, gusty wind should continue with mixing and a tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure to our NE, and high pressure to our SW.
Lows tonight will range from the single digits above zero north to the low teens south.
(Today and tonight) The WV imagery is showing a short wave trough(positive tilt) over AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold airmass remains over Texas with strong high pressure centered over the Concho Valley/Permian Basin.
High pressure will keep a lid on the weather over the forecast area, though a slow warmup can be expected later in the week. Some breezy winds are possible mid-week as a weak trough pushes just north of the area, along with some light snow showers or snow flurries in northeast Nevada. High pressure will continue over the region through the short term.
542 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery is showing a short wave trough(positive tilt) over AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold airmass remains over Texas with strong high pressure centered over the Concho Valley/Permian Basin.
256 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Quiet weather will prevail through the short term period as the forecast area sees high pressure rebuild overhead. The ridge will build over the Great Basin early to mid this afternoon allowing for more mild air to advect into the region.
* Sunshine but Cold Today * Not as Cold Tonight Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure northeast of the Great Lakes. A strong area of cold high pressure was found across OK. This high was expanding its influence through the plains states and eastward into the Ohio Valley. Thus highs in the lower 30s look like the way to go. This will allow for warmer low temps tonight, near 20F. From Thanksgiving onward, model differences again grow, as most guidance depicts a rapid amplification of the upper level flow on the strength of a digging northern stream jet, but there is significant disagreement as to whether this phases with and strengthens a closed low over the Desert Southwest/Rio Grande Valley or results in a broader closed low moving through the Great Lakes.
512 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 A large mid/upper trough continues to reside over the Great Lakes region keeping a northwesterly flow regime over the central plains.
Temperatures have already proved warmer than originally forecast given the continued wind.
For Monday, there should be more clouds along and north of the highway 200 corridor.
(Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a weak, positively tilted trough over NM/AZ, slowly moving east toward the area. Ahead of this trough, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with generally light winds around 10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form near the leading edge of this trough as it moves over the area; however, it appears the greatest lift will be to our south.
140 AM PST Sun Nov 20 2022 Cold overnight lows through Monday with near-freezing temperatures possible for rural Valley areas. Valley lows will fall into the 30s with some rural communities falling to the freezing mark. The areal coverage of potential sub-32 deg F readings won't be widespread, and will mainly be confined to rural portions of Sacramento, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yuba, and Solano Counties with a 20 to 50 percent chance of freezing temperatures.
912 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 Cold and dry weather is forecast today as high pressure builds across the area. The warming trend will continue through the week with the next chance for rain will arrive on Thanksgiving ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Low level southwesterly flow develops with lows from the upper teens northeast to the lower 20s southwest. High temperatures to begin to warming up with topping out in the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. High pressure settles in for the overnight Monday with temperatures below normal once again.
347 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Key messages: 1) Warmer and dry for your Sunday. Northerly flow will remain place across Colorado as high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will begin to warm up with highs topping out in the lower to mid 50s across the Plains, and upper 30s to lower 40s across the San Luis Valley.
Temperatures will remain cooler today as cloud cover and rainfall limit warming this afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from around 60 along the Nature Coast to the lower 70s further south.
222 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Weak ridging aloft will keep the clear and tranquil weather going through the early portion of this week. Southwest winds will begin to increase today, especially the higher elevations and the usual prone areas across central WY and off the Cody foothills.
Although colder temperatures and chilly below freezing temperatures have now settled in across the region, a gradual warming trend starting today should boost temperatures into more seasonal averages for most areas as high pressure builds region-wide across CA/NV.