Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We might also have too much cloud debris to help destabilize for a potential second round of convection along the main sfc-850mb cold front. So if the storms move through early and we can clear out in time, then another round of storms could fire along any outflow boundaries or a slow- moving sfc-850mb cold front during the late evening and overnight hours.
Upper trough out west incoming for the afternoon, and deeper moisture continues to stream up ahead. Otherwise, big upper trough axis will be on approach this afternoon across the taf areas.
The upper level low is now an open longwave trough oriented with its axis from lake Superior to near the Missouri Bootheel into Northeast Louisiana. Tonight, the trough will quickly break down while shifting east becoming replaced by a weak transient ridge tomorrow. As a result, temperatures will trend warmer.
Upper flow over the central Plains has taken a modest northwest character with an upper high to the southwest and stronger westerlies across the northern states. Decent lee cyclogenesis leading to mainly southerly winds and a warmer day for most locations with mid 90s reached in central Kansas. Continued cyclogenesis tonight leads to an increasing low-level jet and a warmer night under increasing cirrus. Temps should reach the lower 90s to near 100 though deep mixing allows RH values to drop into the middle 20s to middle 40s and heat indices near to not far above these values.
530 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Remnant of a low over the Midwest (to our west) has opened up into a trough and continues to fill while lifting slowly northeast.
10 inches along the ND/SD border into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, with the highest probabilities further south. Large ridge setting up to the west of the northern plains will drift very slowly to the east during last half of the extended fcst period and should keep the remarkably dry stretch going. A low pressure system moves through South Dakota into Minnesota Wednesday bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms with it.
Since the trough across the Mississippi Valley has lifted with ridging building across the Southern Appalachians, PoPs for Wednesday are less than the past few days with limited diurnal convection across the higher elevations. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 88 70 89 71 / 30 30 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 70 90 71 / 20 20 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 86 68 89 69 / 20 20 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 66 88 66 / 20 30 20 20 10.
Upper ridging will break down tonight as an upper trough moves into the Dakotas by morning. Temperatures will be suppressed under the upper trough and the rain and clouds with highs only in the 70s on Wednesday. In addition to the low pressure system, elevated smoke from fires in the western U. Mid-level ridging is progged to build into the region throughout this forecast term. However, models do continue to show a couple of mid-level s/w impulses working through the upper ridge and across portions of our region toward the end of the week.
852 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 An upper trough continues to move through the Mid-South this evening. The upper level low is now an open longwave trough oriented with its axis from lake Superior to near the Missouri Bootheel into Northeast Louisiana. Tonight, the trough will quickly break down while shifting east becoming replaced by a weak transient ridge tomorrow. As a result, temperatures will trend warmer.
1015 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across northern Florida and along the Gulf Coast. A ridge extending across northern Florida and along the Gulf Coast will maintain moderate breezes with a subtle downward trend through the overnight hours.
Outflow winds moving out of Lincoln County/Southwest Utah with ignite storms across Clark County with additional rounds of outflow boundaries driving nocturnal convection all the way south through the lower Colorado River and Mohave County overnight.
Warmer temperatures for the weekend. Radar this afternoon shows showers and thunderstorms developing along a cold front from the Minnesota Arrowhead southwestward along I-35 to Hinckley. Next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday evening as an upper level trough moves into the region bringing substantial PVA to support widespread rain over the southern third of the CWA from Burnett County eastward Price County with amounts of around a half inch.
950 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A disturbance will cross east through the Great Lakes region later today, pushing low pressure out of the region tonight and cutting off the moist southwest flow over the Ohio Valley.
This afternoon we have the base of an upper-level trough moving across the area, triggering lines of showers and thunderstorms associated with small-scale vorticity maxima around the base of the trough. Cloud cover today is helping to keep temperatures a bit cooler, with temperatures now (2 PM) only in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will be close to this afternoon's highs, with highs only expected to top out into the low-to-mid 80s. As the upper-level trough moves off to the northeast, it leaves behind a stationary boundary that appears to drape right across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee.
Strong/Severe storms expected Wednesday, coming in 2 waves, with the second harboring the higher severe threat. Associated cold front looks to bisect the forecast area from northeast-southwest around 00z with other outflows from the early day storms likely wavering across the area (another potential storm focus).
734 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A disturbance will cross east through the Great Lakes region later today, pushing low pressure out of the region tonight and cutting off the moist southwest flow over the Ohio Valley.
Upper trough was slowly progressing east across Indiana this afternoon and will finally move east of the state overnight. Satellite shows embedded MCV within CU field over central IL, likely remnant circulation of upper low. This feature along with trough and weak instability was helping generate scattered to numerous showers and a few isold tsra. Have finally removed all pops overnight with trough east and no good forcing. Also expect partial clearing with subsidence behind trough overnight and as diurnal cu dissipate. Will depend on proximity to backside of trough and any weak waves.
This event should be later in the day, and don't expect thunderstorms to really get going in this area until the upper level trough/disturbance progresses eastward into the eastern portion of Wyoming by this evening. Current Watervapor loop shows the upper level trough/disturbance moving into western Wyoming at this hour. For Wednesday, cooler and more stable day with any thunderstorm activity confined to areas near and in the mountains.
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The upper high ridge across the Southwestern U. Tonight, should start to see the upper ridge break down, with a weak short wave trough starting to dig across the Rockies.
512 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Remnant of a low over the Midwest (to our west) has opened up into a trough and continues to fill while lifting slowly northeast. Ridging will start out near the Eastern Seaboard, with another ridge centered across Southern California. In between these two features, a positively tilted trough will be aligned from the Upper Midwest down through the central Rockies.
623 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Strong/Severe storms expected Wednesday, coming in 2 waves, with the second harboring the higher severe threat. Associated cold front looks to bisect the forecast area from northeast-southwest around 00z with other outflows from the early day storms likely wavering across the area (another potential storm focus).
Broad troughing over the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest, along with a weak trough rounding the northern periphery of the ridge will tighten the pressure gradient across the region increasing wind speeds and gusts.
As this occurs a cold front will surge southward, and current indications from latest 14/06Z NAM and recent runs of the HRRR have the front through all of western and north central NE by 4pm CDT this afternoon. Otherwise the drier air is lagging behind the cold front by several hours, and with moist low-levels expect a low stratocumulus deck to linger most of the day across northern NE. This will keep high temperatures well below normal in the lower to mid 70s. Winds gradually swing around to the east and southeast Thursday as high pressure settles toward the Mississippi River Valley. Cooler air will be recycled west with highs remaining several degrees below normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The trough is currently producing showers and thunderstorms across portions of southern Nevada and Utah, with a line of storms just beginning to move into far northern Mojave and Coconino Counties. Ensemble guidance is pointing towards increasing confidence in high pressure strengthening and building north of Arizona by this weekend. At this point continued moisture and slowly warming temperatures this weekend are expected to re-initiate storms over the high terrain each afternoon.
313 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Upper level trough axis is over the eastern Great Lakes and back through our area early this morning. The trough will lift into the northeast today, but there will still be enough low level moisture and instability to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Some widely scattered showers have developed early this morning with the trough axis crossing the area. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Thursday will be a brief break from the overall wet pattern the region has seen out ahead of the next trough that will be approaching from the NW.
358 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Upper level trough axis is over the eastern Great Lakes and back through our area early this morning. The trough will lift into the northeast today, but there will still be enough low level moisture and instability to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Some widely scattered showers have developed early this morning with the trough axis crossing the area. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Thursday will be a brief break from the overall wet pattern the region has seen out ahead of the next trough that will be approaching from the NW.
Prevailing southerlies will continue to draw moisture up into central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints climbing as high as the lower/mid 60s(F) by this evening. Hotter temperatures continue today as prevailing south-southwesterlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across southwest and central Kansas. Expect lows well down into the 60s(F) in west central Kansas behind an advancing cold front tonight with the lower 70s(F) still possible ahead of the boundary in south central Kansas.
Upper trough has deamplified and pulled east of middle TN this morning.
Latest short term model consensus suggests that a weakening mid- level trough will progress slowly eastward across the TN Valley overnight. As the upper-level trough moves off to the northeast, it leaves behind a stationary boundary that appears to drape right across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee.
Currently, mid level S/WV trough moving slowly east across the Northern High Plains region, bringing showers and thunderstorms mainly across eastern Montana and western and central South Dakota.
South to south-southwesterly winds will kick in for Wednesday, helping to boost temps into the lower/mid 90s areawide. A developing cold front across the central Plains will shift southeast, likely stalling across southern KS/northern OK by late Thursday afternoon.
Cooler temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. With the stronger winds, do expect warmer minimums heading into the morning hours.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge continues it's firm hold over the Desert Southwest with the eastern edge still over west Texas.
A weak inverted upper level trough is located over South Texas and this feature will extend into SE TX. 5 degrees cooler than yesterday so MaxT values should be similar or a degree or so cooler than yesterday. MaxT values should again warm into the lower 90's but will will dependent on when storms develop.
Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the lower 70s with light SSW or light and variable winds. Weak upper ridging will continue to dominate our region of the country through the short term and that will continue to mean very isolated diurnally driven convection Wed Aftn as well and very warm temperatures. Concerning temperatures, persistence is the best forecast tool under this weak ridging regime and with lower to middle 90s forecast later this afternoon, expect similar conditions once again Wed Aftn.
The mid/upper-level trough will not be completely east of the region until around 06Z, so a few showers may linger well into the evening in the east. As the upper ridge builds over the region Wednesday, the warming column should keep the four state region dry. An upper-level trough and associated cold front will approach from the northwest late Thursday, but the ridge should still keep us dry through the afternoon. The upper trough will continue to push toward our region Thursday night and some convection may eventually reach southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. There will be some decent mid-level flow ahead of the trough, so if storms can form into clusters, a few strong wind gusts would be possible.
Upper level troughing across the Tennessee Valley could aid in the coverage of convection this afternoon, but the effects should begin to diminish Wednesday as the trough lifts northward. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. As the aforementioned trough gets pulled away to the north, upper level high pressure begins to build in from the east. With the upper ridging to the east, the greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon are expected over the western half of the area. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the low 90 with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Isolated small showers have also developed recently around and southwest of the Lower Keys. This wave is tracking westward along the southern periphery of a sprawling subtropical ridge which extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and the central Gulf of Mexico. The recent activity that swept northward just to the east of the Upper Keys did not really disturb the environment around the remainder of the Keys, and the recent development of a few showers near the Lower Keys may be the beginning of the next round of convection.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. Lows generally in the lower 70s.
Still, a few showers will be possible through the day thanks to the midlevel trough sliding east across our area through the early afternoon hours, and the 500mb trough sliding in from the west- northwest this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will settle back into the region this evening, with dry weather taking hold. At the same time the 500mb trough extending from Hudson Bay through MN and the Dakotas will slowly shift east.
246 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Cold front lays along a line from southern Nebraska to Cheyenne to Rawlins and finally to Evanston this morning. Upper air pattern shows us with a trough of low pressure over Montana and northern Wyoming with upper area of high pressure over Arizona and southern California. Upper ridge builds back over western Wyoming Thursday as surface boundary begins to shifts northeast again.
305 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. Lows generally in the lower 70s.
This feature is progged to weaken today as mid level ridging begins to strengthen over our region from the east. Early morning surface analysis had a >1022mb ridge axis from the east nearly along I-20. Provided this early convection across our northeast becomes more isolated this morning and allows decent insolation, more of our CWA will see afternoon highs top out in the lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. Morning lows will be in the lower 70s at most locations which is also normal for this time of the year.
Went close to guidance for high temperatures today with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Upper level trough axis is over the eastern Great Lakes and back through our area early this morning. The trough will lift into the northeast today, but there will still be enough low level moisture and instability to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Some widely scattered showers have developed early this morning with the trough axis crossing the area. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Thursday will be a brief break from the overall wet pattern the region has seen out ahead of the next trough that will be approaching from the NW.
331 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis is positioned just north of Florida, and is forecast to hold through the rest of the week, with generally easterly flow continuing. This pattern will favor numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with convection starting to develop over the interior during the early afternoon and building towards the west coast through the late afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances generally along and west of Interstate 75 with the sea breeze collision.
215 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 A disturbance will cross east through the Great Lakes region later today, pushing low pressure out of the region tonight and cutting off the moist southwest flow over the Ohio Valley.
An upper trough was working across eastern Montana early this morning. Showers were lingering with the trough over parts of the north and east. This activity will lingering over eastern zones today as cyclonic flow around the trough induces lift. Upper ridging starts to build back in tonight. Prominent upper ridging will be in place the entire time, allowing for very above normal temperatures.
Temperatures reach into the low 90s across much of the region. Detailed Discussion Northwest upper level flow and ridging across the Midwest yield another day of relatively quiet weather. Guidance originally had a fairly well organized system tracking along the NE/KS border with the main cyclone bypassing our region to the north. The cold front associated with the synoptic level upper wave slowly advances across KS.
A subtropical ridge remains in place off the East Coast. With this in mind, a slightly warmer, drier day is forecast with highs in the uppers 80s to lower 90s.
The first chance for showers and thunderstorms develops during the mid to late afternoon hours on Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The lull in the active pattern has finally arrived with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. The high pressure is centered over the southeast U. , so strong southwesterly flow on the backside will advect much warmer air into central Indiana. In addition, the high dew points are not going anywhere, so heat index values will reach the 90s both today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, overnight lows tonight will hold steady in the low 70s with clear skies. However, that benign pattern will be short-lived as the next upper trough quickly enters the region on Thursday afternoon. as a slow-moving upper level short wave and accompanying cold front cross the Mid-West from west to east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure remains parked off the southeastern US coast with low pressure coming off the front range of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak mid-level weakness in the ridge sits along the lower Texas coast today before the ridge strengthens slightly on Thursday.
This warmer surge of air is expected pull in another bout of moisture and will nudge afternoon temps into the 90s with heat indices touching the upper 90s. The aforementioned cold front is expected to slowly move SE into central MO and eastern KS Thursday, eventually stalling out over southern KS/MO/IL.
Without the upper-level support of the trough, this activity will also be more diurnally driven -- and think things will taper off pretty quickly by sunset.
Weak high pressure will build over the area Thursday. A cold front will drop into the area this weekend, potentially stalling nearby. While hi-res models show robust convective development this afternoon, this is likely to be somewhat overdone due to models overdoing the low-level moisture. Slightly better thunderstorm chances Fri to weak troughing. A large upper level trough with an associated cold front will makes it way into the region during this time period.
Weaker high pressure will remain over the region this week.
Appears to be a weak short wave in the area moving ESE around main upper low in far NW Ontario.
Weak high pressure will build over the area Thursday. A cold front will drop into the area this weekend, potentially stalling nearby. While hi-res models show robust convective development this afternoon, this is likely to be somewhat overdone due to models overdoing the low-level moisture. Slightly better thunderstorm chances Fri to weak troughing. A large upper level trough with an associated cold front will make its way into the region during this time period.
Upper level trough that brought us the active weather the past week has lifted into the northeast US, with weak southwest flow aloft in place across Middle Tennessee. A stout H5 ridge over the western Atlantic will begin building westward into the southeast states today, and help suppress our shower and thunderstorm activity considerably versus the past few days. With less convection and cloud cover around today, highs should have no problem reaching the low 80s on the Plateau and the mid 80s to low 90s elsewhere.
/issued 852 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ An upper trough continues to move through the Mid-South this evening. The upper level low is now an open longwave trough oriented with its axis from lake Superior to near the Missouri Bootheel into Northeast Louisiana. Tonight, the trough will quickly break down while shifting east becoming replaced by a weak transient ridge tomorrow. As a result, temperatures will trend warmer.
The complete set includes persistent light to moderate onshore flow, plenty of humidity to keep overnight lows warm and hair frizzy, temperatures around the lower 90s, and scattered showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and early evening. Humidity from onshore will get us off to a warm start, and daytime heating will build up fuel for an afternoon with another shot of showers and thunderstorms as we reach to highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees - probably a bit cooler if a storm cuts off your temps a bit early, a bit warmer if you stay dry.
We gradually warm again thereafter as high pressure ridging works in the region. Expect storm redevelopment along a cold front by later afternoon/early evening, though confidence is somewhat low on exactly where the front will be when storms develop, along with how far south the front will make it.