Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Subsidence in the wake of this trough along with drier air spread across southwest Utah and remains in place, while within the moisture axis which has pushed eastward scattered convection persists across southern and east central Utah. An upper low spinning near the San Francisco Bay area is forecast to translate east tonight through Thursday.
Up stream is a midlevel ridge over the Rocky Mountains and an area of high pressure expanding across the area. Temperatures will be near normal today and tomorrow under the not so robust high pressure. For this afternoon, have some 10 PoPs in the lower Texas Panhandle as there is plenty of moisture at the H7. There seems to be an inverted trough or boundary in the lower levels that may passably aide in lift tomorrow.
Conditions may support a few lingering showers/thunderstorms across the ridges overnight, but most of the area will remain dry. Afternoon coverage is likely to remain sparse and tethered to the ridges. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected with building high pressure and gradually decreasing cloud cover through the day. Despite previous frontal passage, high temperatures are likely to run a couple degrees warmer than today. Dry, warm conditions will carry into the weekend with lingering high pressure.
Lows overnight warmer than this morning with SE winds keeping some mixing ongoing with lows in the mid 50s east and low 60s west. High pressure currently over northern MN will move further eastward, allowing southeasterly winds to pick up overnight. PWATS in the 99th percentile to MAX (near 2 inches east of RRV) are indicated by NAEFS/GEFS; quite reasonable owing to the upper ridge prancing to the east as more hot and humid SW flow heads over our region once again.
Have maintained some low pops later tonight across far southern Missouri then a bit farther north to the Highway 60 corridor on Thursday as the frontal boundary meanders north. The upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward on Friday then build across the Central Plains over the weekend. with more isolated diurnal activity under the ridge over the weekend. Daily high temperatures over the weekend are advertised to be rather steady in the lower 90s which is a few degrees above normal.
Dry, warm conditions will carry into the weekend with lingering high pressure.
Nevertheless, the ridge persists and will maintain warm and muggy conditions today especially for areas along and north of I-20.
334 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Bermuda High pressure will dominate across the region today. A trough over the Coastal Carolinas will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to start the weekend off.
Winds aloft begin to strengthen tomorrow, as a cold front stalls out over eastern OR. An upper trough and cold front will approach from the west on Thursday. The cold front and upper trough will continue to push drier stable air into most of the region on Friday.
A dry and fairly weak cold front has moved into the forecast area and is slowly moving its way eastward. It will be cooler and still a bit breezy on Thursday, especially along the Cascades, but skies will be mostly clear. Upper low moving into California with moisture and instability rotating into southern and eastern Oregon. Upper level trough moves across southern BC and the Pacific northwest Thursday. Partly cloudy and cooler with breezy west winds. Weak upper level trough remains over the region Friday with dry westerly flow aloft. Mostly clear skies and cooler.
1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening as a cold front pushes south through the area.
Some off and on cirrus possible through period as trough passes over region. A dry and fairly weak cold front has moved into the forecast area and is slowly moving its way eastward. It will be cooler and still a bit breezy on Thursday, especially along the Cascades, but skies will be mostly clear. Upper low moving into California with moisture and instability rotating into southern and eastern Oregon. Upper level trough moves across southern BC and the Pacific northwest Thursday. Partly cloudy and cooler with breezy west winds. Weak upper level trough remains over the region Friday with dry westerly flow aloft. Mostly clear skies and cooler.
The HRRR and RAP have been very adamant that no convection will develop behind the remnant MCV, but the NAMnest and NSSL WRF show a few scattered storms developing near warm front in southwestern portions of the area. Thursday is expected to be a dry and warmer day as we see rising heights aloft and increasing southerly flow near the surface. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with southerly wind gusts of 25-30 MPH. Slight chances for thunderstorms creep into northwestern portions of the area overnight along with the next approaching trough and surface front.
1114 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Scattered thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon as mid level moisture continues to flow into the region around the periphery of srn plains upper ridge. Overall, expect convection to persist into the evening over the higher terrain, then gradually fade after sunset, although enough upper level forcing may remain in place over the swrn mountains to keep at least a few showers going through much of the night.
Temperatures should moderate a few degrees higher however, as we see the first glimpse of the upper ridge working into the north central CONUS. On Friday the mid/upper ridge will be comin' in hot. These elevated temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will drive heat indices into the 95-100 degree range.
233 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020 08z surface analysis had low just north of KSHR with stationary front into eastern NE and trough into southwest WY. By afternoon, 3KJ/kg MLCAPE develops ahead of trough from K2WX to KICR, but with 25-75J/kg MLCIN. Td/s soaring through the 60s to the lower 70s combined with highs in the mid-upper 90s will push heat indices to 100-105F across parts of central SD. Friday, aforementioned trough slices CWA in half from northeast to southwest under southwest flow aloft.
/Issued 1206 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020/ /Through Thursday Night/ A mid/upper ridge will strengthen across the Southern Plains over the next 24 hours, allowing temperatures to climb to near normal values starting Thursday. Models do indicate that a weakness in the ridge will linger across North Texas for another day, which should allow for isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
Upper heights fall on Friday as an upper level trough begins dropping south out of Canada. Instability with the trough will result in scattered storm potential again late Friday, developing into the higher terrain and drift into the plains west of Billings into the evening.
/issued 819 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020/ A broad subtropical ridge remains in place across the southern CONUS this evening. Highs remain in the upper 80s but dewpoint temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s. We have just a bit of relief while clouds pool in from the southwest, but areas untouched by cloud cover continue to rise to the lower 90s. The Mid-South remains between two upper level ridges, one ridge centered over the Carolinas while the other is over the southern Plains. By the end of the week, the Southern Plains ridge will move eastward. As the ridge moves eastward our rain chances have the potential to ramp up just a bit. Highs through the end of the week will remain in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
251 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 An upper level trof will remain over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today into Friday.
However, despite low-level instability, an upper-level ridge will suppress widespread deep convection across the region. Temperatures today to climb into the low to mid 90s areawide across much of the region. Could see slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s across southeast Oklahoma north of the boundary. One good thing this weather pattern has to offer will be the "cooler" temperatures.
Upper level ridge building will be underway across the central plains late Thursday into Friday, with our area tucked in the southwest quadrant of the ridge and continued modest moist deep southeast flow.
With the low Flash Flood Guidance with recent heavy rainfall, WPC added a marginal risk of excessive rainfall basically across the southern metro areas (both Atlantic and Gulf). Zonally elongated subtropical ridging will prevail along 30 degrees North as a tropical wave advances through the Caribbean Sea. Stout mid to upper tropospheric ridging will remain centered to our northeast as Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo enters the eastern Caribbean Sea early in the week.
1126 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 500 mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed an upper ridge building across the Rockies early this afternoon, with weak northwest flow over the region. The upper ridge moves onto the Plains on Thursday with an upper trough to its west, placing the region under southwest flow aloft. Models are still showing the local area under the influence of a strong upper-level high and ridge over the Plains that is producing weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Central High Plains region. For the start of next work week, the high will move more southwestward, towards the desert southwest, allowing for a low pressure system, and its associated front to transit south over the Great Lakes and northern High Plains regions.
215 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Aviation High pressure will bring generally fair weather through the end of the week.
and Friday Some spotty showers are possible across east-central Wisconsin this morning as a weak trough tracks through the region. Otherwise a dry period is expected later today through Friday as high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Highs today will generally be in the lower to middle 70s. Highs on Friday will be a bit higher on the backside of the high, generally in the lower to middle 80s as dew points also increase into the lower to middle 60s.
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The mid/upper ridge axis across the Southern Plains is progged to amplify and rotate into the Central Plains region as we move through the day today.
The weather will remain rather quiet across southwest Kansas today and tonight as an upper level ridge continues to build slowly over the central and southern plains. By mid afternoon, temperatures are expected to have reached the lower 90s, with both NAM and GFS MOS guidance in good agreement. GFS MOS is the slightly cooler solution, and therefore is the favored solution given how much precipitation southwest Kansas has received recently.
The other story will continue to be the heat/humidity, with highs peaking in the lower 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees. The center of the high may actually shift a little bit closer to our area on Friday, but don't expect much of a change to our forecast other than it being a degree or so warmer. Showers and thunderstorms should be more scattered in nature on Friday, potentially being more numerous along the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau region.
245 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The Missouri Ozarks will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level high which is centered over the central and southern Plains. Highs today will be similar or perhaps a degree or two cooler than the last few days. Seasonably hot temperatures will then continue into the weekend as that upper level high remains camped over the central and southern Plains.
1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 226 PM CDT Spotty showers ahead of the cold front dropping through the area this afternoon have been the primary item of interest so far today. Dewpoints have already dropped into the lower 60s in northwest portions of the area farther behind the front, and 50s dewpoints are not too far away. Tomorrow should be quite pleasant with less moisture and afternoon highs a couple degrees below seasonal norms, and even cooler by the lake with an onshore breeze developing around mid day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday in the mid 80s as light southerly flow returns later in the day allowing for warm air and moisture to lift into the area for the weekend.
247 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge, extending from the southeastern CONUS west to the Ark-La-Tex, will continue a westward expansion into Texas and begin to build over the southern Plains.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ A mid/upper ridge will strengthen across the Southern Plains over the next 24 hours, allowing temperatures to climb to near normal values starting Thursday. Models do indicate that a weakness in the ridge will linger across North Texas for another day, which should allow for isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
An onshore flow and slightly cooler than normal temperatures can be expected over much of the district today.
412 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A weak cold front will cross the region today sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, with storms ending inland this evening.
318 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A Weak cold front is currently along the Michigan Ohio border where some shower activity is moving through. High pressure centered over Wisconsin will slowly move east across Michigan through Friday.
414 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Low pressure moving southeast into New York will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area today.
232 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020 500 mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed an upper ridge building across the Rockies early this afternoon, with weak northwest flow over the region. The upper ridge moves onto the Plains on Thursday with an upper trough to its west, placing the region under southwest flow aloft. The upper ridge will be in place over the Central and Eastern CONUS at the start of the forecast period with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be situated over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, tracking east through the day.
Tonight & Tomorrow: A warm front lifting northward should bring a scattered showers and thunderstorms to our area after midnight tonight, with the best storm chances expected between 3 AM and 9 AM tomorrow. Friday & The Weekend: Weather this weekend will be dictated by an upper level ridge and frontal boundary sagging southward.
152 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A cold front will move into the area later overnight and early Thursday morning, providing continued chances for showers, even a few thunderstorms. High pressure will move in behind the front Thursday night and bring drier and slightly less humid air through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility, but the highest threat of thunder resides in the southeast earlier in the day. Highs will be in the lower 80s for most locations, and overnight lows will finally drop into the mid and upper 60s with slightly cooler dewpoints being brought in behind the front. The cold front will wash out along and south of the Ohio River on Friday and this could lead to a few lingering showers or thunderstorms across our south through the day.
The weather will remain rather quiet across southwest Kansas today and tonight as an upper level ridge continues to build slowly over the central and southern plains. By mid afternoon, temperatures are expected to have reached the lower 90s, with both NAM and GFS MOS guidance in good agreement. GFS MOS is the slightly cooler solution, and therefore is the favored solution given how much precipitation southwest Kansas has received recently. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the central and southern plains, and an upper level trough will skim the northern CONUS as it progresses eastward across southern Canada through the weekend. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s, and winds will remain out of the S/SE with daily afternoon maxima owing mainly to boundary layer mixing.
707 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A weak cold front will cross the region today sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, with storms ending inland this evening.
554 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Early this morning a weak cold front was laid out from the lower Great Lakes southwestward through MO. It was supported by a broad, flat upper level trough moving eastward across the northeast CONUS, of which we were on its southern fringe, with the base approaching. However, models show a significant uptick in activity starting this morning as the trough and the front approach, as well as a very subtle ripple in the upper level flow. The high water content could also lead to some locally heavy rainfall. At the same time the upper level trough axis will shift to our east, and our flow aloft will become more from the west and northwest, with drier air aloft arriving.
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over South Central Texas. The low level flow is from the southeast across our CWA keeping a warm, moist airmass in place.
603 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The Missouri Ozarks will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level high which is centered over the central and southern Plains. Highs today will be similar or perhaps a degree or two cooler than the last few days. Seasonably hot temperatures will then continue into the weekend as that upper level high remains camped over the central and southern Plains.
We expect an upper level ridge will begin to build across the central plains today and along with increasing southerly winds it will make for a hotter day. Highs this afternoon should be around 90 or in the lower 90s for most areas. Tonight will also be on the warm side with lows only falling into the lower 70s.
522 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020 08z surface analysis had low just north of KSHR with stationary front into eastern NE and trough into southwest WY. By afternoon, 3KJ/kg MLCAPE develops ahead of trough from K2WX to KICR, but with 25-75J/kg MLCIN. Td/s soaring through the 60s to the lower 70s combined with highs in the mid-upper 90s will push heat indices to 100-105F across parts of central SD. Friday, aforementioned trough slices CWA in half from northeast to southwest under southwest flow aloft.
With a mix of clouds and sun, expect temperatures to top out in the lower to perhaps mid 90s.
Surface dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s and precipitable water (PW) values around 2 inches will again support scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will otherwise average near normal through the weekend, with locally cooler temps associated with thunderstorm outflow.
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A weak cold front extended from southeastern MI southwest through central MO. Highs on Friday will be slightly warmer as upper level ridging builds into our area from the Plains.
721 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Bermuda High pressure will dominate across the region today. A trough over the Coastal Carolinas will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to start the weekend off.
A Weak cold front is currently along the Michigan Ohio border where some shower activity is moving through. High pressure centered over Wisconsin will slowly move east across Michigan through Friday.
A trough moving through this afternoon ahead of a approaching cold front from the northwest may be enough to provide some clearing but in the end, it all depends on some LL mixing and lifting of the lower layers with the days heating. Conditions may support a few lingering showers/thunderstorms across the ridges overnight, but most of the area will remain dry. Afternoon coverage is likely to remain sparse and tethered to the ridges. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected with building high pressure and gradually decreasing cloud cover through the day. Despite previous frontal passage, high temperatures are likely to run a couple degrees warmer than today. Dry, warm conditions will carry into the weekend with lingering high pressure.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. the forecast area is caught in between an upper level high pressure area over southeast Kansas and a trough of low pressure centered north of Washington state putting us in southwest flow aloft. Low temperatures are expected to remain above normal in the low 60s to mid 70s.
Easterly flow pattern continues between high pressure situated over the central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Eight in the GOMEX, moving WNW into the western Gulf. The highest coverage expected later this morning through early afternoon, with showers and storms pushing towards the western peninsula for the late afternoon. Easterly flow continuing between high pressure over the central Atlantic and Tropical Depression 8 in the GOMEX.
1052 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A weak cold front will cross the region today sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, with storms ending this evening.
307 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Low pressure will linger over California through the weekend.
An isolated severe storm may still occur to the south and west, but this is where the best combination of deep moisture with the southeast low level flow, 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear, available CAPE, will coincide with the approaching low pressure system. Another cold front will push through the area Friday night with the next round of thunderstorms.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are a possibility across much of the area during the afternoon & evening hours with some weak disturbances traversing the edge of the ridge aloft. Thunderstorms are likely to increase slightly in coverage in the evening/overnight with the upper ridge axis shifting east, allowing for a more persistent mid & upper level moisture feed along with stronger PVA at H5 and some dynamic forcing associated with an 80 knot H25 jet over central WY tonight.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A strengthening ridge aloft will bring a return to near-normal temperatures and minimal rain chances as we round out the work week. A lingering weakness in the ridge will allow for a slight chance of storms this afternoon, mainly for areas west of I-35 and north of I-20, but most locations should remain free of precipitation.
The mid-level pattern hasn't changed much since 24 hours ago with ridging over the majority of the country - the only exceptions being a low-amplitude trough over the Great Lakes and another trough sitting over the west coast. For today, the aforementioned ridge will slowly build over the central US allowing for southerly winds to continue, which will result in daytime temperatures fairly similar to yesterday if not a few degrees warmer. After reaching the low 90s today, another quiet night is expected with lows in the low 70s. A gradual warming trend is expected into the weekend as the ridge continues to build.
Trough over CA will continue to migrate eastward into NV today and then linger over the silver state on Friday. The trough will create gusty afternoon winds in central and eastern NV.
834 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Atlantic high pressure ridging north of FL and Tropical Depression Number Eight in the central Gulf of Mexico will stream deep tropical moisture across the area today. High pressure north of the state and Tropical Depression 8 moving west through the Gulf will maintain east and southeast winds for the next few days.
Today Through Friday High pressure continues across much of the country with an upper trough over the west coast. The upper ridge will remain parked over the center part of the country through the short term period.
613 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The mid/upper ridge axis across the Southern Plains is progged to amplify and rotate into the Central Plains region as we move through the day today.
Early this morning a weak cold front was laid out from the lower Great Lakes southwestward through MO. It was supported by a broad, flat upper level trough moving eastward across the northeast CONUS, of which we were on its southern fringe, with the base approaching. However, models show a significant uptick in activity starting this morning as the trough and the front approach, as well as a very subtle ripple in the upper level flow. The high water content could also lead to some locally heavy rainfall. At the same time the upper level trough axis will shift to our east, and our flow aloft will become more from the west and northwest, with drier air aloft arriving.
west coast low remains anchored off the California coast and high pressure cycling over the Southern Plains.