Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW AFTER 03Z SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CURRENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE HIGH TEENS (KTS) WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.
350 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCALES THIS MORNING AFFECTING SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS. COLD AIR IS ALSO MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA THANKS TO THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WE'RE STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING FIRST OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE VALLEYS.
AND MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. AS IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH JET STREAK LIFTING NWD THROUGH FAR ERN CO. BETTER CHANCES FOR WDSPRD PCPN IN OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN WY/WRN SD. UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH PCPN CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
Better both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest, but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will keep chance PoPs going.
553 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S BEACHES TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WELL INLAND. STACKED HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST EAST OF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A PREVAILING MEAN LAYER ESE STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I- 75 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INLAND TOWARD I-75 WITH MILD LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN/ATLANTIC COAST. A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND RISING TEMPERATURES AS STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS LINGERING OVER SOUTH GA. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO 70S COAST.
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM TODAY.
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015 (Today and tonight) One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL WI AT 19Z. THERE IS A SFC TROF IN NW MN AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORCING DRIVING THE LIGHT RAIN WEAKENS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE CHARGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK.
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015 The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Brief break in the convection at around 15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL, WHICH TENDS TO BE RATHER STABLE, INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. WAA ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW IN UTAH WILL MOVE TO WYOMING TODAY.
QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT. BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT WARMER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST.
WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDERS. WITH PERHAPS SOME GREATER QPF POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
The best area for thunderstorm development will be over in Idaho county, Lemhi county and the higher elevations of southwest Montana.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED.
WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MESSY PATTERN TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING TO THE WEST AND SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES IT VERY SLOW TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ON ACCOUNT OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. THE NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDING WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER.
MODELS SHOWING THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR UPPER TROUGH FINALLY OPENS UP. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
525 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHRT WV ENERGY FROM W-SW WEAKENING RIDGE LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWING WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW OVER ATLC. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CLOSE OFF THROUGH H5 AND H3.
With the low level jet focusing to our north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north with time. That said, the low level jet is strong and a rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far southwestern portions of the outlook area. Expect activity to train from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper low in the Great Basin. The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.
SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
AN UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXITING SOUTH FROM KERN COUNTY INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THE HIGH RES ARW. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA LATER THIS MORNING WITH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY OVER 600 J/KG AND LI VALUES NEAR ZERO.
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION WILL MAINTAIN STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 PLEASANT WEATHER LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE ENDING TODAY AS IMPACT FROM BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND BASE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO OPEN WAVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY ON MEMORIAL DAY.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES TO PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WHILE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A SE WIND AT CHA THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD WEST ACRS SOUTH TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN THE PAST CPL WEEKS ALTHOUGH IT STILL WILL BE HOT. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES RECENT TREND OF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CUT-OFF LOW AND A SEASONALLY STRONG TROUGH THAT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS ON WED.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH TUES.
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
1250 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
Short range models indicate the upper level ridge across the Northern Plains breaking down today as the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest turns more eastward across the Northern Rockies of Montana. This will set up the ridge axis and a subsequent weak northerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Seasonal temperatures are likely again today as a prevailing southerly flow continues to reinforce the warmer air mass across western Kansas. Look for highs up into the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon.
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO.
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST CROSSING THE CWA. 500MB TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND LAPSE RATES WERE NOT TOO BAD. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. VALUES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO.
WV Imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a broad scale upper level ridge of high pressure stretching from the Four Corners Region northeastward into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is lifting northeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure remains locked in across the Central Plains eastward into the Ohio River Valley. A weak inverted trough will lend to light and variable surface winds from highway 83 to the colorado line.
THESE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE YIELDING ~1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPS TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO, WITH SAT NIGHT RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT AROUND 1. NAMELY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AND A RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE. AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST. OUR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT.
THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
In the upper levels, weak troughing will continue. Most of the low-level moisture will be confined to the Florida counties today. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER SOLNS AND STILL USES THE LESS DEEPLY MIXED MODELS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY.
1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SCT STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS.
Looking at the big picture, water vapor imagery this morning shows a broad ridge dominating much of the CONUS with a weak trough over the East Coast. This "dry spell" will persist into the weekend as the ridge expands east and flattens out under the influence of a trough zipping east along the Canadian border. On the far side of the weekend, the ridge that gave us the locally nice weather will have disappeared as some energetic troughs swing in across the Pacific Northwest and Plains States.
WARMER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A much cooler day is in store today in the wake of a potent cold front passage last night. Temperatures will run around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with many locations only reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s today. With a cooler airmass in place tonight and clearing skies, some valley locations will likely get quite chilly by Sunday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL FALL TEMPS WILL START THE DAY ABOUT THAT MUCH WARMER. STARTING WARMER BUT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY. COLD FRONTAL TIMING STILL DIFFERS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLOWEST AND GFS FASTEST. MARKEDLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THUS WILL KEEP THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND GO WITH HIGHS JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
1115 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO RECIRCULATE MOISTURE TODAY WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND PW VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH AT GRAND JUNCTION ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GJT RAOB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. CAUSING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO LAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
229 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 High pressure at the surface will be shifting east this weekend. At the same time, an inverted low pressure trof aloft develops and extends across the lower to mid MS and TN valleys.
THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB RIDGE NOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START SHIFTING WEST AS A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE GULF OF MEX LATER THIS WEEKEND.
153 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED S/WV ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
203 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A STRONG CANADIAN STORM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TRAILING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST U. THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. POPS AND COVERAGE WILL BE KEPT LOW GIVEN THE OVERALL RIDGING AND LACK OF DEEP SUPPORT. WE/LL BE DEEP UNDER THE RIDGE FOR TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE MKX AREA SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT HAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAY BE A FACTOR FOR STORM FOCUS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TODAY WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LATEST NCEP/WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS OF 85F TO 89F. HOT AND MUGGY SUNDAY /MAX HI MID 90S/ AMID STOIC CAP WITH 7-5H LR NR 4C/KM AS EXTRUSION OF DESERT SW TO NRN PLAINS RIDGE SETTLES ACRS SOUTHERN GRTLKS.
614 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A RESULT OF A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TX COAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
435 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER AS UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS JET STREAM AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS TROF PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS.
356 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH FROM NRN FL TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.