Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm front is currently draped across the area from Yuma to Hill City. This afternoon, above normal temperatures are expected across the region as the warm front lifts north. Normal highs are in the low 60s. Above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday as a ridge sits over the Central Plains with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area.
This will result in slightly warmer conditions as highs this afternoon range from the upper 70s to middle 80s and lows tonight fall into the low and middle 60s. The region remains under mostly ridging aloft or a quasi-zonal flow.
Latest CAM guidance suggests a northward expansion of the low afternoon PoPs currently down in SE OK might be needed for this afternoon. /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Warmer temperatures are expected today even with the abundant cloud cover that is anticipated.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will also build back into the Florida Peninsula for Monday night into Tuesday. Highs today and again on Tuesday will mostly be in the lower to mid 80s over South Florida except around 80 east coast metro areas.
/issued 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ A very mild morning across the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes region ridges down and into Texas.
Along with southwest surface winds, and a low level thermal ridge building across the area, temperatures will warm well into the 80s across the region.
An upper low off the northern California coast will move slowly southward today and tonight.
Current water imagery continues to show an deep upper level low pushing on to the coast of central California. This low will continue to bring moist southwest flow into southeast Idaho today. However our southern and eastern areas look close enough to the upper level low to still get continued showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon into the early evening on Tuesday.
638 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Warm front tonight followed by storms with a cold front Tuesday night.
The low pressure system moving south along the California coast will bring windy and mild conditions to much of the area today. Somewhat cooler and wet conditions will develop across southern Utah as the low pressure system moves east across the desert southwest midweek.
An area of low pressure and associated dry line will slide eastward across western Kansas today into tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows tonight ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s across south central Kansas. Warm and dry conditions continue on Tuesday with an upper level ridge aloft and lee troughing at the surface.
608 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected today, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL as a southwesterly low level jet brings low level temperature and moisture advection into this area, and as a weak warm front lifts northward through the region. Warmer high temperatures can also be expected today as the surface wind becomes southerly. Even warmer temperatures can be expected Tuesday with southwest winds south of the warm front. GKS Scattered convection is possible Tuesday evening, mainly across southwest IL along a weak cold front which will be moving southeastward through the region.
This has moved back to around Sterling (a little farther west), but that should be about as far as it makes it as lee troughing will be kicking in early this morning. Not much change expected over the high country, with upper 50s and 60s foothills, and 45 to 55 mountains. Cross mountain flow increases to around 40 knots, and there should be a few puffs of very warm wind down the Front Range Foothills with strengthening lee trough overnight. The early Spring warm spell will continue through Tuesday with an upper ridge aloft over the state being fed by warm southwesterly flow downstream from an upper low over southern California. The afternoon on the plains will see humidity levels dropping to the lower teens and some west winds gusting to 20-25 MPH along the northern border.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge will be over the middle of the country with an upper low just off the California coast. The ridge will remain nearly stationary through the period as the upper low dives to the south. By late Tuesday, the ridge will flatten somewhat over Arkansas. Rain chances will remain low today with high pressure sliding off to the east.
Additionally, dewpoint temperatures are a few degrees higher today as the lower level atmosphere gradually moistens on developing return flow around the ever so slow southeastward drift of the low level ridge.
With the low position near the northeast edge of the forecast domain, will be looking at northwest winds this afternoon.
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Currently, low pressure is centered over western SD and high pressure over the Great Lakes. The low is expected to move ESE towards northern WI/Lake Superior through tomorrow morning. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night, ushering in cooler temps for the rest of the week.
Warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s over the area tomorrow. And even behind the front, there is a downslope component to the winds and 850 mb temperatures are still quite warm, so it will not be significantly cooler north of the boundary.
1201 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A closed mid-level low pressure system will move slowly southward along the West Coast early this week reaching the waters off southern California late Tuesday. Dry weather is expected over all but the eastern Uinta Mountains which will fall just under the eastern edge of a plume of subtropical moisture carried northeastward ahead of the eastern Pacific low pressure system. A deep layer of southwest flow will remain over the region as the closed low spins off the southern California coast.
As a warm front develops along I-74 tonight, a few thunderstorms will be possible north ofthe front. A better chance of storms is expected Tuesday evening and overnight as a strong cold front pushes into the Midwest. Early morning surface map indicated 1023 mb high pressure over central lower Michigan which was still providing tranquil weather to the local area. A warm front developing east of western KS low pressure, extended into southwest MO. For Tuesday the warm front lays out north of the area with southwest flow putting us firmly in the warm sector. A cold front will move in from the northwest Tuesday evening, and if forcing is strong enough to overcome the strong cap, isolated to scattered convection will develop.
1122 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over western SD, with frontal boundary stretching across far northern WY to northeast SD. Mild conditions will continue early this week, with low pressure and frontal boundary slowly shifting east-northeast today as a warm front. As low pressure move east of the region, it will drag a weak cold front slowly south across the area on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Northern Plains Tuesday night, dropping temps to near or slightly below seasonal values for mid to late week.
Weak ridging over South TX will keep convection chances more in the isolated category in the short term. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night should be about 5 degrees warmer than the lows from this morning. Still, the high dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 and light moderate winds will make the air feel plenty warm.
A large area of low pressure off the West Coast will bring gusty south to southwest winds today. The low will move east and bring a slight chance for showers Tuesday in western Yavapai and Coconino counties.
It will be warmer Tuesday, with highs in the lower 70s for northeast NE and lower 80s near the NE/KS border region. This also brings fire danger back to the region, with most areas in the high category, but areas west and south of Lincoln reaching the very high category.
Upper level riding building across the northeastern Pacific will yield sunny conditions with temperatures in the 50s across the majority of the lowlands. The upper level trough will continue its eastward slide into the early morning hours. The upper level ridge offshore will continue to build on Monday, providing for mostly sunny skies through the week. Rain possible by the weekend as a system slides over the ridge and into the area.
Expect the overall warming trend to continue as an upper ridge builds over the central CONUS.
228 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Upper level low sliding down the west coast this afternoon with a broad downstream ridge over south central states. Continued low level warm advection resulting in warmer temps today despite considerable clouds, and the warming trend will continue the next couple of days as low level thermal ridge expands east.
Further to the east, could see some patchy fog across northwest Iowa ahead of the weak trough working through the region.
Can't completely rule out an isolated storm in the lower Ark River valley of west central AR where the cap will be weaker, but for the most part the area will remain capped for deep moist convection. Latest CAM guidance suggests a northward expansion of the low afternoon PoPs currently down in SE OK might be needed for this afternoon. /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Warmer temperatures are expected today even with the abundant cloud cover that is anticipated.
As a warm front develops along I-74 tonight, a few thunderstorms will be possible north of the front. A better chance of storms is expected Tuesday evening and overnight as a strong cold front pushes into the Midwest.
258 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A leeward trough will move eastward across the area tonight with winds shifting to the west. This will flush the higher moisture east of the area with lower dew points spreading into the area from the west. Highs Tuesday topping out in the mid 70s combining with the lower dew points will result in low humidity values. A cold front will move south into the area late Tuesday night as a potent upper level low moves into southern Canada, this should put an end to the fire weather concerns for a few days. An upper level low pressure system moving slowly southeast just off the California coast will result in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest the middle of this week.
A few of the high-resolution/CAM are generating isolated storms across the western South Plains or northwestern Permian Basin and try to push them east through the late afternoon.
A low pressure system passing north of the state will place Iowa firmly in the warm sector of the low under upper level ridging.
We will not get the same break tomorrow as southwesterly flow pushes the clouds east and we warm up into the 80s for all but the higher elevations.
Still looking at a better chance for showers and a few thunderstorms tomorrow through tomorrow night as a weak short wave moves over the weak ridge to the west and sweeps through the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians.
216 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Latest upper level analysis has a broad ridge across the central CONUS with positively tilted trof across the west. Upper low is located across California in the base of this trof. At the surface, warm frontal boundary continues to shift north with breezy to windy southwest boundary layer flow in place across the forecast area. As low pressure moves east of the region, it will drag a weak cold front slowly south across the area on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Northern Plains Tuesday night, dropping temps to near or slightly below seasonal values for mid to late week.
Mostly clear skies this morning have allowed for temperatures to warm into the low 70s.
319 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon indicates an upper level low centered along the California coast with a broad region of southwesterly flow aloft extending from downstream of the low into the Central US.
With temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s today and dewpoints in in the single digits to lower 20s, minimum relative humidity values are dropping to less than 15% across the SW 1/3 of the forecast area this afternoon, with the lowest RH values across far east central Colorado falling into the single digits.
Weak low pressure and associated front will move through the area to help initiate any storms, but no major drop in temperatures is expected. Temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 60s, and RH's will get down to the low 20s. A more potent cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday night, bringing about a quick, drastic drop in temperatures and northerly winds.
Additionally, dewpoint temperatures are a few degrees higher today as the lower level atmosphere gradually moistens on developing return flow around the ever so slow southeastward drift of the low level ridge. Kept ceilings around three to four thousand feet as the lower levels moisten at cha and tys.
338 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 The stationary front currently draped across central Missouri will lift northward over the evening as warm front as flow in the low levels and near surface layer becomes southwesterly. Storm initialization will be a struggle during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday as strong WAA advection in the low to mid levels will create a stout cap of 150-200 J/kg of CIN. A weak cold front will move southeast through the CWA Tuesday night and will be the best focus for surface convergence and storm development.
911 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Widespread cloud over this morning may persist into the afternoon and inhibit temperatures from reaching previously expected highs in the low to mid 60's, hence lowered highs for today. Vertz An upper low and trough will be situated along the California coast today through Tuesday.
239 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Mid/upper-level ridging continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with high pressure in place at the surface along with a trough over south Florida.
355 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Water vapor imagery at 20Z shows a closed low pressure circulation along the central coast of California, and subtle ridging over the southern US. At the surface, a ridge resides over the southeastern US and a lee side trough is located west of the region. A southerly breeze should allow for another mild night with temperatures only cooling into the low 50s in north-central KS to near 60 degrees in east-central KS. Highs are forecast to reach the low 80s in most locations. The upper level flow becomes northwesterly over the region by midweek when a large scale amplified trough moves into the northern CONUS.
An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms still looks to work into the western portion of the area later this evening as the instability axis ahead of the cold front works in from the Plains. The overall theme for the latter portion of the forecast period hasn't changed, with the model guidance still in good agreement on a change to the large scale pattern that favors much cooler weather for our area. The modest ridging currently in place will give way to northwest upper flow by midweek, then troughing across the eastern half of the continent by the weekend.
Tuesday, warm air advection ahead of a cold front will continue. Similarly, the warm front location varies greatly, but a far northern push is unlikely with our current setup. Thus, kept the warmest temperatures in the lower Fox Valley and kept dewpoints a little lower. Highs will range from the upper 40s near the lake to the lower to middle 60s across central Wisconsin.
235 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Deep mixing occurring today under a robust southwest flow as a result of a deep and closed mid-level low pressure system dropping southward along the California coast.
313 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Main challenge is trend in low clouds tonight/Tuesday and timing of the mid-week cold front/cooling behind it. This should result in the warmest day of the year so far across much of the forecast area as a surface trof/quasi-dryline front moves across the area.
A weak cold front slides into North Central MT Tuesday night, producing a few light snow showers.
Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the lower 60s. Southwesterly surface winds, combined with afternoon sun and a stronger low level thermal ridge tomorrow, will result in above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Radar is showing a few light showers in south-central Idaho, with more showers situated south into Nevada (closer to the upper low).
An upper low moving slowly south near the California coast will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region today.
1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected today, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL as a southwesterly low level jet brings low level temperature and moisture advection into this area, and as a weak warm front lifts northward through the region. Warmer high temperatures can also be expected today as the surface wind becomes southerly. Even warmer temperatures can be expected Tuesday with southwest winds south of the warm front. GKS Scattered convection is possible Tuesday evening, mainly across southwest IL along a weak cold front which will be moving southeastward through the region.
201 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Despite the continued cloud cover today, a warm front has pushed through the area and temperatures have responded into the mid 60s to low 70s so far this afternoon. Pretty good low level warm advection occurring underneath an upper level ridge across the region that extends all the way through the Mississippi valley. A closed low was just off the California coast with southwest diffluent flow ahead of the low in the southwest U.
A slow moving upper level low will continue to bring showers and clouds to the area through about mid-week.
Water vapor imagery at 20Z shows a closed low pressure circulation along the central coast of California, and subtle ridging over the southern US. At the surface, a ridge resides over the southeastern US and a lee side trough is located west of the region. A southerly breeze should allow for another mild night with temperatures only cooling into the low 50s in north-central KS to near 60 degrees in east-central KS. Highs are forecast to reach the low 80s in most locations. The upper level flow becomes northwesterly over the region by midweek when a large scale amplified trough moves into the northern CONUS.
Weather looks particularly interesting Tuesday night as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River. At the same time, remnants of a negatively tilted trough will be dropping through the Great Lakes.
510 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Latest upper level analysis has a broad ridge across the central CONUS with positively tilted trof across the west. Upper low is located across California in the base of this trof. At the surface, warm frontal boundary continues to shift north with breezy to windy southwest boundary layer flow in place across the forecast area. As low pressure moves east of the region, it will drag a weak cold front slowly south across the area on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Northern Plains Tuesday night, dropping temps to near or slightly below seasonal values for mid to late week.
705 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2020 A weak front will move south into northern NC tonight,then retreat northward across the middle Atlantic as a warm front Tuesday morning.
706 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A leeward trough will move eastward across the area tonight with winds shifting to the west. This will flush the higher moisture east of the area with lower dew points spreading into the area from the west. Highs Tuesday topping out in the mid 70s combining with the lower dew points will result in low humidity values. A cold front will move south into the area late Tuesday night as a potent upper level low moves into southern Canada, this should put an end to the fire weather concerns for a few days. An upper level low pressure system moving slowly southeast just off the California coast will result in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest the middle of this week.
The high pressure ridge axis continues to settle southward this evening and will align east-west with central FL on Tue. Highs wil range from the low 80s along the coast to mid-upper 80s over the interior Tuesday afternoon.
A large area of low pressure off the West Coast will bring gusty south to southwest winds into this evening. The low will bring a slight chance for showers Tuesday night in western Yavapai and Coconino counties.
Oakes dewpoint is in the lower 50s and good agreement with instability elements and low/mid level frontogenetical forcing maximized between 03z and 06z Tuesday. Stratus has at least temporarily eroded at Jamestown, but should return this evening until a cold front sweeps through around 09z-12z. High pressure will fill in behind the trough after midnight across western North dakota. Afternoon relative humidity there will fall into the lower 20s by afternoon, resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns across the southwest.
High pressure will fill in behind the trough after midnight across western North dakota. Afternoon relative humidity there will fall into the lower 20s by afternoon, resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns across the southwest.
Broad mid-level ridging becomes established Tue across the MS Valley, with the Pittsburgh region beneath wnwly flow aloft. As the EML spreads ewd, a warm-frontal zone will develop across the region as relatively warm, moist sly flow surges poleward between sern CONUS high pressure and a low developing across the High Plains. Downstream of a mid- level ridge, and lacking a clear forcing mechanism, it is unclear that storms will form in the mid-late afternoon. The primary hazards with the higher-confidence morning convection are hail and flooding, as flow and storm motion will be near- parallel to the initiating boundary. By mid-afternoon, model guidance is in agreement that an influx of moisture-rich air in the low-levels will spread across at least the srn/wrn half of the forecast area.
02z/9pm surface analysis shows warm front along I-80 with widely scattered showers occurring along/north of the boundary. Further south into the warm sector, dry conditions are noted across central Illinois with current temperatures still in the lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge over the midwest is expected to begin to flatten as northern stream energy begins to impact the region. A boundary between the warm air anchored within the ridge and the incoming cooler northern stream is expected to develop just northeast of the forecast area this evening. Counties generally north of I-74 will see a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight after the low-level jet intensifies and begins to interact with the boundary. The ridge should continue to flatten on Tuesday allowing some colder air aloft to steepen lapse rates across the area.
Weak cold front stretching from just west of Minot to Hazen to near Lemmon South Dakota will continue east tonight. Low level warm air advection ensues across the southwest around 12z Tuesday and expands north during the day ahead of the next stronger cold front. Oakes dewpoint is in the lower 50s and good agreement with instability elements and low/mid level frontogenetical forcing maximized between 03z and 06z Tuesday. Stratus has at least temporarily eroded at Jamestown, but should return this evening until a cold front sweeps through around 09z-12z. High pressure will fill in behind the trough after midnight across western North dakota. Afternoon relative humidity there will fall into the lower 20s by afternoon, resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns across the southwest.
/issued 319 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon indicates an upper level low centered along the California coast with a broad region of southwesterly flow aloft extending from downstream of the low into the Central US.