Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As this low continues to pull away to the east, expect clearing skies through the early morning hours. Expecting winds to decrease slowly through the day as the high builds into the area, but gusts of 20 to 30mph will be possible through the afternoon. With cooler temps aloft sticking around into Tuesday, overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 40s outside of the Twin Cities metro. We will rebound quickly Tuesday afternoon as warmer air returns to the region with highs nearing 80. The sharp upper trough currently over the center of the continent will be shoves north/east by midweek as ridging over the southwest CONUS pushes northeast into the southern and central Plains.
1208 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Big weathermaker aviationwise will be the cold front moving through the state.
Guidance in good agreement indicating Hudson Bay upper low will remain entrenched for the next couple days, placing the region in steep northerly flow aloft (as west coast ridge builds). Toward later Tuesday the west coast upper ridging will weaken as a system propagates across Canada, causing the overall pattern to become less amplified. Surface ridging will build into the region, although water vapor imagery indicates several weak upper level waves within the northerly flow aloft that will track near northwest Minnesota.
(Today and tonight) Earlier this morning, anafrontal convection rapidly expanded and intensified across southern Kansas, in response to forcing from amplifying northern/central Plains upper trough.
A cold front was located over eastern Nebraska into western KS. Main focus in the short term will be with shower and thunderstorm chances later tonight into Monday and with cooler temperatures moving in. South central MO will have the highest readings around 80 before the front moves through. The rain should exit the area by Monday evening and with the cooler and drier air mass continuing to move into the region, temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to low 50s for lows. Upper ridging will begin to move into the area by the middle of the week with a return of low level warm advection.
The cold front is moving through the cwa early this morning and winds will shift to the northwest through daybreak. High pressure will settle across the region tonight with light winds and clear skies expected.
Current VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms along with lower ceilings expand in coverage along and north of a passing cold front. This activity was ahead of a the main cold front. and along the western periphery of the low level jet that extended eastward across Missouri. though the greater potential should remain north of the CWA within the axis of the low level jet. the cold front is still expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas mainly after 08-09z. These storms may develop along/near a pre- frontal wind shift ahead of the true cold front with gusty northerly winds behind the boundary. Behind the cold front.
/issued 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/ South winds around 10 mph to persist across much of the region overnight ahead of a cold front that will move across the region on Monday.
Then, as the front and larger amplitude trough approaches from the northwest, pre-frontal convection shows up in a few of the CAMS, with coverage expanding during the late afternoon into the early evening hours. Northwest flow will bring a nice dose of drier and slightly cooler air in the midweek period.
A strong cold front will push southeast through the area during the day on Monday. Cooler, post frontal temperature is thus expected to quickly moderate through the week. The next rain chance will come with the progged approach of a late week long wave trough. Otherwise, a cold front will push southeast through the area by the early afternoon. Restrictions are likely into early Tuesday with the passage and in the immediate wake of the cold front.
408 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Severe storms were moving east and will move out of the area early this morning as a cold front moves southeast. Much cooler weather is ahead tonight and Tuesday.
In addition, with the cooler and drier airmass, afternoon heat indices should be 10 to 20 degrees below today's values.
This morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by troughing centered across the Great Lakes region and extending across much of the central and eastern CONUS, leading to sharp northwest flow across the Northern Plains. Quiet weather continues tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s, warmer than this morning.
High pressure will build over the Mississippi Valley area and into the Southern Plains tonight with light southerly winds returning to the area. There is some concern that we'll see nocturnal storms late Tue night into early Wed as the LLJ noses into central KS but elevated parcels are progged to remain capped due to the H7 thermal ridge expanding eastward into the Central Plains. Some lingering post- frontal pops were maintained into Fri-Sat with another surge of cooler air and near or below normal temperatures for the weekend. Precipitation has expanded rapidly in the past hour as a result of synoptic scale lift from approaching upper trough.
Winds have have shifted to W in the areas behind the low, but a tropical airmass will remain in place through the remainder of the period. On Monday night, an upper level longwave trough and an associated surface front cold front will approach the area from the northwest. Next main influencing feature will be with upper trough and translated elongating sfc front progged to push SEWD across the area Monday night thru Tuesday. The boundary and enhanced moisture axis looks to stall near central GA for Wed/Thu with weak ridging across the north so have maintained some pops accordingly.
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The BYX 88D is devoid of precipitation echoes as temperatures reamin steayd in the lower to mid 80s, and dewpoints hover uncomfortably high around 77-78. As southeast winds deepen as well as moisture along with erosion of the lower tropospheric inversion, rain and thunder chances gradually increase.
1229 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 High pressure will remain across the region tonight. A cold front will approach later Monday and Monday night, then cross the region Tuesday.
1140 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The cold front has advanced across nearly our entire forecast area at this time, excepting a few counties in the southeast, and storms have cleared out for the time being.
A strong cold front will push southeast through the area during the day on Monday. Cooler, post frontal temperature is thus expected to quickly moderate through the week. The next rain chance will come with the progged approach of a late week long wave trough. The main aviation concern early on Monday will be southwest wind and wind gusts which may be preceded by pre-dawn llvl wind shear as per the tightening pres gradient in advance of a cold front. Restrictions are likely into early Tuesday with the passage and in the immediate wake of the cold front.
It's June in the High Plains. Heights continue to climb as the ridge meanders toward Iowa. Continued southerly winds and 850 WAA will help sfc temps manage upper 80s to mid-90s or even warmer on northwestern periphery of CWA.
235 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Upper ridging will build over the Northern Rockies and high plains through Tuesday and bring warmer and drier conditions.
Upper ridge over much of the Gulf of Mexico to our south, and a longwave trough over Ontario Canada extends southward into the upper and middle Mississippi River Valley. Weak troughing along the Gulf coast, with scattered convection offshore.
1112 PM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows one cold front well south of the region, with a secondary cold front moving into northern portions of the area now. Upper level analysis shows trough moving through the Northern Plains, with upper level jet from the Northern Rockies into portions of SD and NE. Much cooler air has settled across the area, with temps in the 60s and lower 70s. Cooler conditions will prevail through Monday as Canadian high pressure slides southeast over the area. Lows will drop into the 40s in many areas, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
305 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Scattered showers lingering into this morning - Cold with scattered frost Tonight - Storms/heavy rain possible by the end of the week - Scattered showers lingering into this morning Large area of convection is moving east and out of the forecast area early this morning with scattered to isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the sfc cold front persisting through the morning. Drier air arrives for the afternoon with sharply cooler temperatures. - Cold with scattered frost Tonight Sharp upper trough will bring a shot of Canadian air with the MAV guidance forecasting a low of 34 at CAD for Tuesday morning.
307 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Big changes are on the way today as cold front provides relief from the heat. The cold front should reach Lubbock around daybreak and exit the southeast corner of the CWA around midday. The combination of the cold air advection and more limited insolation will result in highs 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday, except across the southern Rolling Plains, where they may make a run toward 90 degrees before the front passes. Upper ridging will move back over the region by late tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Highs today are forecast to be warmer in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows today will be 70-75F once again.
1115 PM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Current surface observations across the region show the stationary cold front near the Snowy Range and Sierra Madre Range across southeast Wyoming, with the boundary extending southward along the Front Range foothills across Colorado. This feature will continue digging southeast into southern and eastern Wyoming over the next several hours, which will eventually force the cold front south into Colorado tonight. Monday will be pleasant as a drier and cooler airmass moves into the region. Highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s across most areas with locations along I-80 likely remaining in the low 70s. Dry weather for Tuesday as an upper level ridge axis quickly translates eastward into the Front Range. Very low chance for any thunderstorms due to subsidence aloft associated with the upper level ridge, so kept POP near zero.
Expect very high coverage of storms over the interior by mid-afternoon (earlier if we get more breaks in the clouds), then the low-level ridge begins to build back in resulting in a shift to a southeasterly wind flow.
721 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Aviation - Scattered showers lingering into this morning - Cold with scattered frost Tonight - Storms/heavy rain possible by the end of the week - Scattered showers lingering into this morning Large area of convection is moving east and out of the forecast area early this morning with scattered to isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the sfc cold front persisting through the morning. Drier air arrives for the afternoon with sharply cooler temperatures. - Cold with scattered frost Tonight Sharp upper trough will bring a shot of Canadian air with the MAV guidance forecasting a low of 34 at CAD for Tuesday morning.
655 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Scatted showers today will end this afternoon as a cold front moves southeast. Much cooler weather is ahead tonight and Tuesday.
High pressure strengthens bringing a return of very hot weather by the weekend. Some mid and high clouds are developing across interior NorCal early this morning ahead of the closed low to the southwest of the Bay Area.
Forecast on track with highs struggling into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Guidance in good agreement indicating Hudson Bay upper low will remain entrenched for the next couple days, placing the region in steep northerly flow aloft (as west coast ridge builds). Toward later Tuesday the west coast upper ridging will weaken as a system propagates across Canada, causing the overall pattern to become less amplified. Surface ridging will build into the region, although water vapor imagery indicates several weak upper level waves within the northerly flow aloft that will track near northwest Minnesota.
Cool high pressure continues to slide into our area through the morning. Our cool down to start the week will be short lived, as our cool high pressure exits the region and ridging begins to take hold to our west. Southerly flow, WAA, and much warmer (compared to Monday) 925 mb and 850 mb temps allow high to warm into the 80s, with some locations west of the James River approaching the 90 degree mark.
Cold front immediately south of the Interstate 44 corridor will continue steadily southward through the day. /Issued 246 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Cold front has begun to enter northeast Oklahoma early this morning and is expected to move steadily southeastward through the morning hours. Lows in the low 50s and upper 40s will be common by Tuesday morning. Southerly winds quickly return on Tuesday though as mid level ridging begins to build back into the region.
The signal is fairly borderline, but the low is still expected to be rotating offshore of northern California.
The main focus of the short term will be shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing early this morning into Monday with cooler temperatures moving in. Early this morning, a cold front was pushing into the Interstate 44 corridor. Much cooler temperatures are in store today in the wake of the cold front, with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s in areas where rain and cloud cover linger the longest. Far south central Missouri will see the highest temperatures today, generally in the mid to upper 70s during the mid morning prior to the front moving through. The cooler air will continue to overspread the region tonight, with mainly clear skies and lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper level ridging will gradually slide into the region for the mid week timeframe with southerly winds at the surface.
424 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 An active day is in store thanks to an approaching cold front.
437 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A longwave trough is centered across the upper Midwest, with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Upper ridging across the western CONUS will build through the day. Highs will be in the 70s, then warming over the next couple of days as a thermal ridge crosses the region.
520 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The cold front will have moved south of the area by sunrise and all showers should come to an end by sunrise. With high pressure building in, all-in-all today looks like a really nice first day of astronomical summer. We will go back into the heat Tuesday as flow turns more westerly and ridging begins to build back into the Rockies. Temperatures will rise into the 90s once again across many of the lower elevations.
Did have some lows drop into the mid to upper 30s, with the lowest observation of 34 degrees at an NDAWN station in McIntosh County. This morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by troughing centered across the Great Lakes region and extending across much of the central and eastern CONUS, leading to sharp northwest flow across the Northern Plains. Quiet weather continues tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s, warmer than this morning.
- Scattered showers lingering into this morning Large area of convection is moving east and out of the forecast area early this morning with scattered to isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the sfc cold front persisting through the morning. Drier air arrives for the afternoon with sharply cooler temperatures. - Cold with scattered frost Tonight Sharp upper trough will bring a shot of Canadian air with the MAV guidance forecasting a low of 34 at CAD for Tuesday morning.
915 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Satellite imagery shows the low cloud deck is experiencing several breaks. With dew points in the lower to middle 70s, expect stronger heating to produce MLCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/Kg this afternoon. A strong cold front was located near the OH River in KY and IL and extending into northern AR. The risk for strong to severe storms and flash flooding will continue through the overnight hours, as the cold front enters northwest Alabama this evening. Expect this activity to clear the forecast area by noon on Tuesday, and dry weather but well below normal temperatures will follow as an upper level trough axis centers over the region.
will see breezy northwest flow spread down from the higher elevations once again. and even some 30s across the high mountain valleys out west. Warmer and Drier through Mid Week. Cooler and more Unsettled Late Week into the Weekend.
Morning soundings show lingering dry air aloft, and cooler temps at 500mb (-10C) at XMR. Should see enough heating for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s again today, before showers and storms increase in coverage, especially with the prevailing offshore flow. (Previous Discussion) The Atlantic ridge axis remains over south FL, maintaining SSW/SW winds around 10-15 knots for our local waters.
Kuroski (Issued 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021) Today through Tuesday: Much cooler air arrives will arrive today behind the cold front. With cooler temperatures aloft and linger cloud cover, high temperatures are expected to only climb into the mid to upper 60s today and overnight lows tonight are expected to fall into the 40s. Gusty northwesterly winds will linger through this afternoon before high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will rebound quickly on the back side of the high, so this cooler weather will be short lived.
616 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 GOES East water vapor at 2am showing a deep level long wave trough digging out across the Northern Plain/Upper Mississippi/Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a deep low pressure system (995mb) was centered just north of Green Bay WI. Gusty northwest winds were in place across our area on the backside of this low with peak gusts within the last hour generally in the 25 to 30 mph range. High pressure builds in tonight with mostly clear skies.
Temperatures only bottomed out in the lower 80s this morning at most island communities. In fact, the low temperature of 83 degrees at EYW would tie the warm minimum temperature for the date, provided the temperature does not drop below 83 through midnight standard time.
901 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, are expected this afternoon and early evening with a crossing cold front. Cooler and dry conditions expected Tuesday followed by a warming trend through the week. Latest guidance suggests the front will begin to cross eastern OH zones around 3PM and be east of the ridges by 8PM.
An active day is in store thanks to an approaching cold front.
As the ridge builds to the west, winds aloft relax a bit leading to less breeziness this afternoon.
A cooling trend is expected early to mid week as an upper level low approaches the area. This low will also bring a slight chance of dry thunderstorms Monday evening to the far northeastern mountains of Trinity County.
Showers over the offshore marine zones and the lower Atchafalaya Basin this morning. This activity is in response to a weak trough over the gulf and showers will continue through the rest of the day in that area. The main feature of the short term is another upper level trough that will approach the region out of the northwest. PWATS are over two inches thanks to the stream of gulf moisture into the lower levels. Tomorrow a few degrees cooler in the mid to upper 80s.
A cold front will be south of the Texas Panhandle by sunrise. A much cooler air mass will be found across the Panhandles today with highs generally in the 70's. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger across the eastern Panhandles this morning in association with a short wave trough moving through.
High pressure will build over the Mississippi Valley area and into the Southern Plains tonight with light southerly winds returning to the area. There is some concern that we'll see nocturnal storms late Tue night into early Wed as the LLJ noses into central KS but elevated parcels are progged to remain capped due to the H7 thermal ridge expanding eastward into the Central Plains. Some lingering post- frontal pops were maintained into Fri-Sat with another surge of cooler air and near or below normal temperatures for the weekend.
An upper ridge will bring dry and very warm weather today.
Have decreased high temperature forecast by a degree or two, mainly in areas where the low cloud deck travels. A cold front will be south of the Texas Panhandle by sunrise. A much cooler air mass will be found across the Panhandles today with highs generally in the 70's. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger across the eastern Panhandles this morning in association with a short wave trough moving through.
314 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The cold front will have moved south of the area by sunrise and all showers should come to an end by sunrise. With high pressure building in, all-in-all today looks like a really nice first day of astronomical summer. We will go back into the heat Tuesday as flow turns more westerly and ridging begins to build back into the Rockies. Temperatures will rise into the 90s once again across many of the lower elevations.
2" and MUCAPE will range from 2000-2500 J/kg, and these ingredients coupled with broad ascent from an approaching upper trough will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The upper trough will drive a cold front across northwestern GA overnight into Tuesday morning with periods of moderate to heavy rain in tow. The cold front will continue to progress across north GA and portions of central GA on Tuesday, continuing to pose a threat for a few strong to severe storms. Martin The aforementioned short term front and enhanced moisture axis looks to stall near central GA for Wed/Thu with weak ridging across the north so have maintained some pops primarily across central GA.
642 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Initial northeasterly wind shift associated with a cold front has passed through KPVW and KCDS, and it is about to reach KLBB. /issued 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Big changes are on the way today as cold front provides relief from the heat. The cold front should reach Lubbock around daybreak and exit the southeast corner of the CWA around midday. The combination of the cold air advection and more limited insolation will result in highs 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday, except across the southern Rolling Plains, where they may make a run toward 90 degrees before the front passes. Upper ridging will move back over the region by late tomorrow afternoon/evening.
514 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 (Today and tonight) Earlier this morning, anafrontal convection rapidly expanded and intensified across southern Kansas, in response to forcing from amplifying northern/central Plains upper trough.
709 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, are expected this afternoon and early evening with a crossing cold front. Showers will linger into Tuesday morning, with cooler and drier conditions expected thereafter. Dry, but warmer weather will continue through the work week. Latest CAM runs suggest the cold front will bisect the forecast area around 00z this evening.
There is a weak trough over the gulf triggering morning showers in the vicinity of some of the southern terminals. Showers over the offshore marine zones and the lower Atchafalaya Basin this morning. This activity is in response to a weak trough over the gulf and showers will continue through the rest of the day in that area. The main feature of the short term is another upper level trough that will approach the region out of the northwest. PWATS are over two inches thanks to the stream of gulf moisture into the lower levels. Tomorrow a few degrees cooler in the mid to upper 80s.
333 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A longwave trough is centered across the upper Midwest, with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Upper ridging across the western CONUS will build through the day. Highs will be in the 70s, then warming over the next couple of days as a thermal ridge crosses the region.