Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A pattern change late week will bring stronger winds to the region, enhanced fire weather, and slightly cooler temperatures.
Skies should clear by late evening and with winds nearly calm overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50s. West northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the exiting trough will hang around through tomorrow, but highs will still reach slightly above climatological normals as most locations will top out in the upper 70s.
All Cams and short res modeling in some form or fashion bring the cold front in this evening, and initiate showers/storms along/ahead of it. Residual showers may continue a few hours w/lower clouds until the drier/cooler air can work in later tonight and esp tmrw.
Temperatures range from the low/mid-60s over north central Nebraska to the middle 70s in southwest Nebraska. For tonight, expect quiet weather conditions to prevail as surface ridging continues to spill into the area. That said, weak surface winds should promote boundary layer decoupling, and agree with previous shifts assessment in keeping temperatures a touch cooler overnight.
A weak cold front tonight will bring another round of drizzle and fog, mostly restricted to the far north coast.
546 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Summer-like temperatures are developing under the amplified ridge running along the Rockies from the southern border to the northern one. Low level moisture remains severely absent allowing afternoon humidity levels to plummet into the single digits and lower teens over the lower elevations. An arriving trough on Monday will promote deep mixing in this warm atmosphere along with building afternoon convection. The good news is the cooler Spring has allowed much of the snow to come off in an orderly fashion.
Current temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the low 70s.
A cold front will bring cooler and drier air into the region tonight into Monday. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) High pressure is set to prevail across the region on Monday as the cold front eventually stalls across north Texas.
Westerly surface winds will increase and become breezy Monday morning, as high pressure continues to build in. Tonight through the day Monday expect weak high pressure to push in from the west bringing mostly clear skies throughout the day and overnight.
/Issued 350 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022/ A weak, stagnant, upper-level trough axis remains anchored over the forecast area, keeping weak flow throughout the troposphere. Tomorrow morning, an aggressive mid-level trough will be sweeping eastward, digging into the Midwest and lifting through the Mid- Atlantic region, gaining a more negative tilt over time.
616 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Satellite imagery shows ridge axis over central MT with scattered high clouds spilling over the ridge into our area. JKL Upper ridge providing a dry and seasonal day across the area. High temperatures on Monday will be warmer with readings moving into the mid 70s for most of the area.
A cold front will sweep through Middle Tennessee toward morning, with a few hours of MVFR ceilings and some vicinity showers to show for it.
957 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 A cold front crosses late tonight into Monday morning.
Redevelopment of additional convection ahead of the true synoptic cold front is not likely in this scenario, but would be possible if nocturnal convection does not materialize as currently expected.
The actual cold front remains well to our north but will eventually sag south across the area early Monday. The highest instability remains across Southeast Arkansas where CAPE values are around 5000 J/KG. Additional storms have developed along the Mississippi River on the edge of the humid airmass(dewpoints in the lower 70s) and the drier air(mid to upper 60s). A few showers may develop behind the storms along the trailing cold front when it moves into the area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the front. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s but should feel nice with lower humidity.
735 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 Isolated showers/storms possible through this evening, mainly in and near the higher terrain. A cold front crosses late tonight into Monday.
716 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 Showers and scattered storms are ahead tonight as an upper level system in tandem with a strong cold front move through.
-Glinskas PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging is expected to bring dry weather and warmer temperatures to NE Montana for today. An upper level Pacific NW trough will deepen and slide east toward the middle of the week. As that trough pushes downstream of the region late in the week, look for gusty northwest winds to develop across the area with temperatures near or a few degrees below normal.
638 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 A cold front is near the northwest corner of Arkansas and will move into the state tonight, exiting the south part of the state on Monday. Current observations show northern AR in the low to mid 60s behind that main line with southern AR in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Temperatures trend warmer this week, with mid to upper 80s today and low 80s on Monday.
A mid-level trough will push across the peninsula of Florida today supporting the continuation of the unsettled pattern seen in the last few days. Eventually convection will diminish Monday night into Tuesday morning in the wake of the trough.
928 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Skies are clearing out for the night as the ridge axis approaches western Colorado. The ridge will move over Colorado tonight and tomorrow. A weak westerly flow aloft will be over the region with the ridge axis sitting over central CO through 18z Monday, it then shifts to the eastern border by 00z Tuesday evening. The airmass will be warmer with the temperatures climbing back into the low-mid 80s Monday afternoon. The storms will initiate over the higher terrain by early in the afternoon, then shift eastward.
420 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be moving across eastern Kentucky this morning, as a cold front pushes through the region. Widespread clouds, precip, and the passage of the front, will lead to much cooler temperatures today around the area, with highs expected to be a couple of degrees below normal. The timing of frontal passage later today will mean that temperatures will likely begin to drop off before dark, or a non-diurnal pattern, as cooler air filters into the region behind the departing front.
A weak ridge of high pressure east of the Bahamas continues to retreat to the east, and a deep trough in the Gulf of Mexico is swinging northeast. A weak mid-level trough will transverse the Florida Peninsula late this morning, simultaneously, a sharp jet maximum with winds ranging from 80 to 100 knots will pass over the Keys. As the trough slides east of Florida late this afternoon through the evening, the shower activity will move east of the Keys but still lingering in the Straits of Florida.
120 AM MST Mon May 16 2022 Temperatures will cool slightly over the next several days as high pressure relaxes over the region, however afternoon highs will still remain above the seasonal normal throughout the week. Early morning WV imagery and objective analysis indicates strong H5 ridging being supplanted by a series of East Pacific subtropical waves.
1128 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Summer-like temperatures are developing under the amplified ridge running along the Rockies from the southern border to the northern one. Low level moisture remains severely absent allowing afternoon humidity levels to plummet into the single digits and lower teens over the lower elevations. An arriving trough on Monday will promote deep mixing in this warm atmosphere along with building afternoon convection. The good news is the cooler Spring has allowed much of the snow to come off in an orderly fashion.
Temperatures range from the low/mid-60s over north central Nebraska to the middle 70s in southwest Nebraska. For tonight, expect quiet weather conditions to prevail as surface ridging continues to spill into the area. That said, weak surface winds should promote boundary layer decoupling, and agree with previous shifts assessment in keeping temperatures a touch cooler overnight. Zonal flow aloft will keep the potential for thunderstorm development off the higher terrain possible into late week.
All Cams and short res modeling in some form or fashion bring the cold front in this evening, and initiate showers/storms along/ahead of it. Residual showers may continue a few hours w/lower clouds until the drier/cooler air can work in later tonight and esp tmrw. Despite some indication of western-fringe peripheral pops potential Tuesday, we think the day is nice for the bulk of, if not the entirety of the FA, as the high pressure ridge axis shifts eastward across the area. ridging and Eastern U. troffing long waves are realized via a pattern shift. with the Bermuda High driving the Eastern ridging offering an increasing influence upon our forecast.
233 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022 The main axis of a western US trough is now centered over the area. This wave will move off, but more energy will work in from the west, under the ridge. With the heights dropping some as the ridge flattens, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for Tuesday, in the upper 60s to lowe 70s.
137 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure and dry weather tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area this morning with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will move in behind the front Monday night, as a high pressure system builds over the area and provides dry weather. Showers and storms will taper off across the region Monday evening, with high pressure nudging in for Tuesday, with cool and drier weather expected.
More breezy conditions arrive along with cooler temperatures for the second half of the week as a system passes by to the north. The warm weather streak continues through midweek with high temperatures across western Nevada in the low to mid-80s and near 70 for Sierra valleys.
Drier weather conditions today with a potential for isolated showers and possible thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon and evening with convection entering into inland southeast Georgia overnight in conjunction with the trailing edge of a trough ahead of a cold front approaching towards the eastern US from out of the NW. High temperatures will reach into the 90s today with cooler highs in the upper to mid 80s remaining very close to the coastline due to the diurnal sea breeze remaining pinned along the shore throughout the afternoon.
300 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather returns tonight and Tuesday under high pressure. Storms should intensify by late morning/early afternoon as diurnal instability builds, though the highest chances of severe storms should be just to the east of the PBZ forecast area where a later FROPA is progged.
Redevelopment of additional convection ahead of the true synoptic cold front is not likely in this scenario, but would be possible if nocturnal convection does not materialize as currently expected. The cold front will shift southward through the region late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening, with light north-northeasterly flow advecting a cooler/drier airmass into the TN Valley early Tuesday morning.
1208 AM PDT Mon May 16 2022 Appreciable onshore gradient will keep the wind prone areas of the region breezy through the day today and bring cooler temperatures.
353 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 (Issued 353 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022) Today and tonight: An upper trough swinging across Lake Superior, steep lapse rates in a dry atmosphere, and deep mixing will bring gusty west- northwest winds to southern WI today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. A wind shift at the lakeshore is expected this evening as a cold front makes its way down the lake.
The convection to our west has dissipated quickly, but we should see increasing activity over KY over the next few hours as the upper jet streak noses into the OH Valley on the back side of a negatively-tilted trough, which will increase upper divergence and vort advection over our eastern KY and our northern sections. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 59 85 60 90 / 20 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 56 82 57 87 / 40 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 79 55 83 57 87 / 50 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 51 79 51 82 / 70 0 0 0 30.
A weak ridge had developed over the Rockies as expected, with troughing off the west coast. High pressure at the surface will build over eastern NE tonight, and will mention some patchy fog possible.
930 PM PDT Sun May 15 2022 A cooling trend will occur through the middle of this week as low pressure aloft builds over the region.
However, precipitation returns to the picture Monday night into Tuesday, as an upper-level disturbance tracks across the region and flattens the upper-ridge leading to more of a zonal flow aloft. Nose-of-the-LLJ showers and storms out ahead of an area of low pressure could develop, and then move east with the mean wind over generally the same areas for a time, perhaps leading to an enhanced band of rainfall totals.
Temps could still reach the lower 60s south central.
312 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Today and tomorrow will see no impactful weather as an upper ridge dominates the pattern. The work week begins with an upper ridge stretching from WY/MT through southwestern Saskatchewan and into northeastern Alberta. Monday morning should begin clear, but some cirrus and mid level moisture spilling over the upper ridge will move into eastern ND by mid-afternoon, but certainly dry in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
The cold front which initially helped ignite these storms yesterday afternoon will settle somewhere across Central Texas today. /NEW/ /Tuesday night and Beyond/ A dominant ridge will continue to provide hot weather to the region for a good part of this week.
A pattern change late week will bring stronger winds to the region, elevated fire weather threat, and slightly cooler temperatures.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
(Today) A cold front was seen pushing through western TN early this morning followed by drier and slightly cooler air. A benign weather day in store for the Tennessee Valley, as high pressure pushes southeast toward the area. Northerly flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side today, topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
1233 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A weak cold front will push offshore late Monday night. High pressure will gradually build into the region through the end of the week. Monday: Weak troughing will remain situated across the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Overnight, the cold front should shift offshore. Tuesday: The aforementioned cold front will likely hang offshore or just in the vicinity of the area for the majority of the day. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s to low 70s closer to the coast.
355 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be moving across eastern Kentucky this morning, as a cold front pushes through the region. Widespread clouds, precip, and the passage of the front, will lead to much cooler temperatures today around the area, with highs expected to be a couple of degrees below normal. The timing of frontal passage later today will mean that temperatures will likely begin to drop off before dark, or a non-diurnal pattern, as cooler air filters into the region behind the departing front.
305 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Slightly cooler today with upslope easterly flow.
1237 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022 Skies are clearing out for the night as the ridge axis approaches western Colorado. The ridge will move over Colorado tonight and tomorrow. A weak westerly flow aloft will be over the region with the ridge axis sitting over central CO through 18z Monday, it then shifts to the eastern border by 00z Tuesday evening. The airmass will be warmer with the temperatures climbing back into the low-mid 80s Monday afternoon. The storms will initiate over the higher terrain by early in the afternoon, then shift eastward.
147 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop tonight in association with a cold front before drier air filters in during the day on Monday and persists through Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs from 70 to 75. Mainly clear skies with cooler temperatures in the dry airmass. Broad mid-level troughing will be moving off to the east, with pseudo-zonal mid-level flow settling into the Ohio Valley through the middle of the week.
A cold front is near the northwest corner of Arkansas and will move into the state tonight, exiting the south part of the state on Monday. Current observations show northern AR in the low to mid 60s behind that main line with southern AR in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
In association with the ever-so-slight instability boost that this low is providing and coupled with the warmer and slightly more unstable conditions closer to the loop current, a couple isolated showers have developed offshore. This lack of moisture and slightly warmer temperatures at 500mb should also keep any risk for stronger storms low today. The low should continue to ingest this drier air today, keeping forecast PW values between 1 to 1. This, along with the exit of the parent trough centered over the Great Lakes, should substantially limit the influence of the low on our weather.
328 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front will move southeast across the area later today, followed by high pressure tonight into Tuesday.
Breezy to windy northwest winds will also start to relax in the evening as the atmosphere decouples and ridging to our west begins to nudge in. The ridge axis will approach western North Dakota on Monday, deamplifying as a weak wave/warm air advection brings a chance of some showers. Highs will be a touch warmer on Monday with more ridging influence, ranging from the lower 60s across the Turtle Mountains to the mid to upper 70s over the southwest. The ridge will continue to flatten Monday night as the next weak wave approaches in nearly zonal flow aloft. Clouds will keep highs a bit cooler in the central and east on Tuesday but they should still be around normal for most across the west and portions of the central.
A cold front aloft will pass over the area tonight maintaining a general 25% chance of rain and accumulating drizzle along the coast, while having very little impact other than that. Its only other effect will be bring in a new airmass that should hold temperatures tomorrow afternoon about 5 degrees cooler than today.
Troughiness extending from the NE Conus hangs into the NE Gulf with an weak upper level low with ridging from the SW Conus trying to nudge into the region from the west. likely with less than 30 percent coverage of the area and mainly east of I-55 where it will be a bit more away from the influence of the nudging ridge. Ridhing nudges further east into the area and the upper level low moves into FL by afternoon Monday. Ridge moves into the area by early Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level ridging anchored over the southern tip of Baja California will maintain hot days, warm and humid nights, and rain-free conditions through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will support moderate to breezy southeast winds. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits along and west of the I-69C/U. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the upper 60s across the northern Ranchlands and the Brush Country to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande River and near the coast.
Upper level ridging over the region today will flatten to become a more zonal flow late tonight and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will get pushed eastward this afternoon and tonight as low pressure tracks from the Rockies to the western High Plains. Expect to see some precipitation development tonight as the low noses up over the area and in conjunction with a 35-45 knot low level jet. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s across west central Minnesota, to the lower 80s across south central South Dakota. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with highs on Tuesday ranging from the lower 60s across west central Minnesota, to the mid 70s across south central South Dakota.
347 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Lead mid level trough axis featured within a broadening area of height falls anchored overhead early this morning. A slightly cooler resident thermal profile relative to the weekend countered by a respectable degree of insolation under thinning cloud and deeper mixing. Potential for a slightly greater recovery and will nudge projected highs up into the lower to mid 70s most locations. This process will draw the attendant cold front through Southeast Michigan, offering a reinforcing shot of cooler air heading into Tuesday.
The actual cold front remains well to our north but will eventually sag south across the area early Monday. The highest instability remains across Southeast Arkansas where CAPE values are around 5000 J/KG. Additional storms have developed along the Mississippi River on the edge of the humid airmass(dewpoints in the lower 70s) and the drier air(mid to upper 60s). A few showers may develop behind the storms along the trailing cold front when it moves into the area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the front. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s but should feel nice with lower humidity. The upper ridge will begin to build back on Tuesday.
Cooler and drier weather arrives for the start of the new week with temperatures expected to top out in the 70s. Surface analysis depicts a cold front stretched from western Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri, with a secondary weaker front/boundary situated from roughly just south of Danville back to near Shelbyville. The cold front pushes through the area tonight as high pressure settles into the central Plains states. Overnight lows will be cooler with values in the 50s expected. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler than recent days, but right around normal.
(Today and tonight) With the passage of last night's cold front, cooler air has begun filtering into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in north central and central Oklahoma to the lower 90s in western north Texas (a good 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday for most locations). Most models (both synoptic and CAMs) have storms developing off the high plains by late afternoon / early evening, then making their way eastward through the evening and into the night. The possibility of upscale growth combined with modest instability (with the higher instabilities farther south) could present a brief conditional severe risk.
A cold front will bring cooler and drier air into the region tonight into Monday.
300 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the central Plains, with a cold front hanging to the north of the region, from northern ND to northern MN. Upper level analysis shows ridge over the Rockies, slowly moving toward the Plains. Today will be warm, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, cooler across the higher Black Hills. Ahead of the front, south-southeast winds will bring increasing moisture into the area, along with the warmer air. Tuesday will be a little cooler behind the front, but still near to slightly above average levels.
A 500 mb ridge will advance into the Central Plains today, with high pressure prevailing at the surface. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, allowing highs to reach the lower 80s.
334 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Cooler and drier conditions take over for today and Tuesday with increased wind gusts expected today.