Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
GFS/RAP forecast soundings show some moistening at the 700mb level but struggle to saturate the lower levels along the front, while the NAM is far more aggressive. The degree of saturation within this layer will dictate the precipitation type (if any), as the max temperature aloft may stay several degrees warmer than the wet bulb temperature in that layer if precipitation develops without the column fully cooling and saturating. Thus we have chances for freezing drizzle in the forecast along the frontal passage, with an even more outside chance of sleet and then snow.
534 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Upper closed low early this afternoon was located near St. For tonight, the upper low will slowly lift away from the region.
252 PM MST Fri Jan 24 2020 Upper ridging is building across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains.
/GG/ Expect clearing skies tonight as the low moves away from the area, and high pressure builds in. Lows tonight should drop to near or just below freezing for the majority of the forecast area, so there may be the possibility of some freezing fog where fog becomes dense enough. Expect dry weather Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
541 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites Saturday morning with north winds behind this boundary.
520 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Upper level low over the far northeast zones was spinning and is forecast to slowly shift east as short wavelength upper ridge over the MT/ND border moves east. Water vapor loop indicated an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Upper low will move into central ND by 12Z Sun. Warm advection east of the low will produce some light precip mainly over eastern ND. Warm air aloft may produce the potential for freezing precip in the far western zones Sat afternoon and evening. Given the trend towards warmer temperatures and calm wind conditions, there is a risk for fog especially during overnight periods. Ridging will begin to build into the northern plains into the start of the workweek resulting in dry calm conditions.
656 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 A cold front will push offshore tonight followed by high pressure. This evening: Pre-frontal convective rains have become less focused and the risk for thunder appears to be on the wane ahead of the cold front. Rains will quickly end from southwest to northeast with the passage of the front with cooler and drier air moving in by daybreak, although some low clouds could linger much of the night, especially across SC.
355 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 The morning surface analysis shows low pressure continuing to push north into the Great Lakes and developing low pushing northeast into Virginia. In the upper levels we see a well defined upper low pushing across the Ohio Valley on water vapor imagery, as this system has becomes more vertically stacked overtime.
1031 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 GOES-16 is showing the weak trough moving even further south of our area, and taking the clouds with it. The high mountains still have some cloud cover and probably some light flurries, but a thorough check of webcams across the passes show the sun is at least partially out and no additional snow. Associated cold front is through all of northeast Colorado with northerly winds of 10-20kt. Main impact for this afternoon will be the cooler temperatures behind the front with readings only in the 30s today. Ridging aloft will be building over the Northern Rockies with a moderate northerly flow over Colorado for tonight. Temperatures will be on the rise Monday under weak ridging aloft, with highs climbing 5-10 degrees in the high country, and 10-15 degrees east of the mountains.
Upper level ridge axis is moving into the Pacific NW with some high clouds spilling over and southeast across MT. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday for most and around 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
At the upper levels, there is a positively tiled trough that stretches from the upper Great Lakes back through the middle of the country and into the SW US. Ahead of the trough, there is SW flow aloft locally. Cold front approaches the region from the NW tonight and overnight which will spill some SCT high clouds into the northern half of the area. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 20s.
Low pressure will continue trekking southeast along a sfc frontal boundary this morning. Some flurries/light snow have been observed in ND and some northern tier areas of our CWA as the cold air advection gets underway along with the passage of an upper trough axis. Temps will continue to cool through the morning across northeast SD/west central MN and remain around 10 above for a high while places farther west like Mobridge and Pierre see highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. This combined with some s/w trough energy working southeast out of Manitoba into eastern ND/northwest MN could be enough to kick up a few flurries or light snow for our northeast zones. The period opens Monday night with an upper level low approaching in northwest flow.
Cold front moving through the area with a N wind in its wake. A upper trough will swing down across New Mexico today with a weak cold front pushing through the region this morning.
A cold front will move through the region on Monday, bringing a slight chance for precipitation.
and Monday A mid level PV anomaly, shows on water vapor satellite imagery over the Red River Valley, will track through the western Great Lakes today along with a cold front. Some weak ridging will keep the weather dry later tonight into Monday. Highs today will be noticeably warmer; ranging from around 20 across north-central to the lower 30s across east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Monday are expected to range from around 20 across the north, to the lower to middle 20s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
Clear skies and ample sunshine, along with southerly winds, will help to drive high temperatures into the 30s most areas today, with temps getting above the freezing mark across the southern half or so. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow today, supporting warmer temperatures approaching early-February climo. It is the more pronounced dry layers atop saturated low-levels that are usually associated with light freezing drizzle. Given the uncertainty, we will retain light freezing drizzle but also include "or" wording for light snow/flurries.
841 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 Satellite imagery shows strong ridge over the western CONUS and NW flow over our region. Temperatures will increase even more the next couple days, with highs possibly reaching the low 60s Monday afternoon, but for sure the 50s across the entire area. Vertz Models are continuing to show the weather pattern dominated by a ridge centered west of the area, putting the area under northwest flow.
136 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 This morning's cold front has brought little in the way of cooler temperatures, being more of a wind shift with some gusty north winds behind it. Modest thicknesses increases Monday point to high temperatures a little warmer than those of this afternoon and in line with MOS numbers.
931 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Cold front will move into far NW AR / SE OK by late afternoon with downsloping NW winds and full sun offsetting any meaningful post frontal cooling. (Today) Positively tilted long wave trough will swing through the area today with a weak frontal boundary moving through during the afternoon. Boundary will have little impact on temperatures and we will likely see slightly warmer conditions compared to yesterday. Deeper snow cover, mainly across northwest Arkansas, will keep temps a few degrees cooler than otherwise.
/issued 345 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022/ Clear skies and nearly calm winds have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing areawide with the exception of the immediate coastline. High pressure ridging across much of the northern and western gulf coasts will maintain the tranquil weather conditions through the day. As this ridge begins to lift northeast, some mid and upper level moisture will lift back onshore resulting in increasing cloud cover late tonight into Monday. The cloud cover will keep Monday morning lows several degrees warmer although a light freeze will still be possible across central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas. An upper trof digging south across the central U.
Low Chance for Light Freezing Drizzle or Flurries early Monday. Continue to be at least slightly concerned about possibility for a brief window of flurries or freezing drizzle late tonight into daybreak Monday. Forecast soundings, however, are not as deeply saturated in the low levels as they were yesterday - with most capping moisture at around 900 mb as opposed to 850 or just above. With cold advection beginning within the morning period for most of the area tomorrow, will lean toward colder raw model blend numbers for highs on Monday in the low 20s to around 30. This may even be a bit warm in spots depending on how much the low cloud manages to erode tomorrow. Models continue to suggest strong ridging in place across the Western United States through the week.
Temperatures will remain above freezing through Monday morning where any precip may occur, at this time. However, an upr trough digging south will merge with some Gulf moisture and result in another shot of precip across parts of middle GA (mainly south of a Columbus to Macon line). This low will move up the coast of the Carolinas and then out into the Western Atlantic.
At the surface, weak cold front is moving through the area and currently stretches from northern MO into central OK. So highs Tue will be fairly similar to Mon, and may even be a couple degrees warmer in some spots. Upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley by Thu morning with northwest flow aloft remaining over the Plains. Winds are expected to flip around to the northwest behind a weak cold front Tue afternoon with speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts to around 30.
An upper level low opening east of Baja California will eject east across Mexico and South Texas tonight and Monday, absorbing into the base of a digging trough. The digging trough will also send a weak cold front through the area tonight, with northerly winds behind it increasing through the morning and midday hours Monday. Weak cold advection behind the cold front may result in high temperatures on Monday a couple of degrees cooler than today.
It will push a weak cold front through the region early Monday. A secondary impulse will ride down the backside of the main upper trough Monday night.
1128 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 We may only realize a narrow zone of decoupled near surface flow early this morning ahead of the surface trof/weak cold front, so freezing fog potential is a bit more conditional across south central and southeast Kansas. Otherwise, there may be a period of cloudiness this afternoon from north central into eastern Kansas associated with some moisture evident in the 850-700mb layer within the trof aloft as it moves southeastward across the area.
Following the cold front from last night, breezy north winds are expected today as the low level jet picks up late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Areas with continued snow pack will see slightly cooler temperatures in the lower 40s today. Winds will diminish later this afternoon and into the evening hours as the upper trough pushes the low level jet out of the forecast area. Light west winds tonight will turn back to the northwest tomorrow with the passing of the upper level trough. Wind speeds will generally be around 5 to 15 mph with clear skies and warming temperatures into the lower to mid 50s.
That combination of ridging and clear skies has resulted in chilly temps, with most areas already a few degrees below normal lows and likely to drop a few more degrees by daybreak.
Still, we should reach up into the low to mid 50s despite the cloud cover.
A weak surface cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected today behind the cold front with highs ranging in the upper 30s to the upper 40s however gusty northwest winds will create wind chills in the 20s throughout much of the day.
While most of the upper level support associated with this wave will pass north of the region, a weak trailing cold front will sag through the region on Monday and provide enough forcing to maintain a mention of scattered light snow showers in the forecast. Temperatures will climb into the lower 30s as this wave passes on Monday and then drop back into the lower teens (to single digits in some instances) as a ridge of high pressure brings light winds and at least some clearing skies.
Calm winds should allow early AM lows to drop below 20 for most of the Quad State with the lowest values tending to be in northwestern portions that have higher snow depth. A long-wave ridge is set up on the Pacific coast. The first trough is forecast to move through Sunday night into Monday morning.
This trough axis will traverse the forecast area by midday, shifting winds to the northwest at 10-20 MPH.
Overnight lows will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than observed this morning with the WAA today and increasing cloud coverage overnight.
Elsewhere, just increasing clouds so far, and temperatures were much warmer than the past few nights, save for a few wrn valleys, where readings were again below zero. Any accumulations at this point look minor (less than an inch), mainly over the higher terrain of the Wets/Sangres/Rampart Range. Max temps today will run substantially cooler than yesterday at many locations, with 10- 15 degf colder readings for the I-25 corridor and eastern plains.
214 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front is beginning to move into the forecast area as of 20z and it will slowly slide southeast across the region tonight. Byrd With a strong ridge over western CONUS and longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS, the forecast area remains in the active northwest flow.
1116 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 (Today) Positively tilted long wave trough will swing through the area today with a weak frontal boundary moving through during the afternoon. Boundary will have little impact on temperatures and we will likely see slightly warmer conditions compared to yesterday. Deeper snow cover, mainly across northwest Arkansas, will keep temps a few degrees cooler than otherwise.
A ridge of high pressure over New England and stretching back into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley is bringing sunny skies to the Mid-South this afternoon. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the forecast area are in the 40s across most locations as southerly winds on the back side of high pressure have helped to moderate temperatures across the region today. High pressure will bring another night of clear skies and precipitation free weather. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and slightly warmer than last night. Short term models indicate a weak cold front will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday but no precipitation is expected with this front.
Even in these areas, QPF through Monday morning will be light with the highest totals perhaps nearing two tenths of an inch. Ptype is still expected to be overwhelmingly just liquid rain with temperatures remaining above freezing. Light rain associated with the low will be exiting eastward and tapering off tomorrow morning. Cloudy conditions will persist through the balance of the day, though, as the approaching upper trough draws Gulf moisture northeastward.
We have just a couple of upper 30s left well north of I-30 with most locales in the lower 40s. The winds are light and now from the south in the wake of departing cold high pressure of 1029mb over N AL. High temperatures today are expected to reach the lower to mid 50s across the region with plentiful sunshine. It will somewhat keep temperatures at bay on Monday with very similar afternoon highs expected, ranging from the lower to upper 50s.
Across far northern Kentucky, where lesser amounts of snow/ice were found, temperatures were in the lower 40s north of the BG/WK Parkways. For tonight, a weak cold front will move toward the region. We'll be in a return flow pattern, but we'll probably decouple once again allowing temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 20s across the region.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level trough continues to become more negatively tilted and elongated, sending a corresponding cold front through the southern plains. With the close proximity of the upper level trough, we may see a few mid to high level clouds overnight but skies in most places should be clear to mostly clear.
This afternoon will be warmer as winds become southerly with sunny skies. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 52 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 49 25 46 29 / 0 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 50 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 48 25 42 26 / 0 10 10 0 0.
Opted to still trend temperatures a few degrees cooler than NBM, but no drastic alterations were made. However, the progression of a ridge of high pressure situated off the California coast inland tonight will allow those temperatures to moderate as 700mb temperatures climb. As a result, temperatures will warm by several degrees Monday afternoon, though inversions in the snow-covered valleys will hold strong with areas such as Craig and Gunnison not expected to climb above freezing.
257 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 The trough responsible for a few snow showers in the JeffCo foothills this morning, and a cooler day today, will be well south of Colorado by tonight. 700 mb temps warm 7-9 degC over the course of the day, warming all the way to 0 degC, and with full sun temperatures across the plains should reach the low 50s other than areas that have deeper snowpack like Weld County southeastward through Morgan, eastern Arapahoe/Adams, and Washington Counties. Upper ridging will be in control the weather over northeast and north central Colorado Monday night.
Breezy northeast winds will continue through late tonight, especially for the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains.
625 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle are possible late tonight and may lead to slick spots on roads and parking lots. The first of a long train of upper level troughs will be impacting the area this period. The result will be little/no ice production and a subsequent threat of freezing drizzle. NW flow off Lk MI will help overcome some of this with previous grids showing either light snow or freezing drizzle still working out well late tonight into Mon AM before the colder air (albeit it nothing like past surges) arrives and gives a slightly more favorable thermal profile for all snow. Atmospheric train tracks will remain active with several more troughs set to impact the area in some fashion, each becoming more amplified with time and potentially greater impacts.
Cold front sweeping through the area through the afternoon hours.
Main issue of note this evening: a few observations are reporting instances of freezing fog. Otherwise, no major changes are needed to the overnight forecast as high pressure remains in control. Cirrus will continue to spread into the region overnight on southwest flow aloft, ahead of a Great Lakes trough. Overnight low temperatures will end up around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than those on Sunday morning.
The bulk of the energy and what little moisture there is to work with will be confined to the PV max in the base of the trough over southern NM into west TX.
950 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will move off the New England coast tonight.
High pressure will briefly slide southeast through the eastern cwa this afternoon effectively cutting off any lingering flurries or snow showers.
309 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Tonight through Monday: High pressure ridging prevails over the area today and this will continue into the overnight hours. Lows will be a little warmer overnight in the upper 20s to low 30s. A short wave will push a weak cold front southeast across the area early on Monday, but will mainly just reinforce the cold air across the area. High pressure ridging will build back in on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s across the lower elevations, with 30s over the San Luis Valley. weak instability in the wake of the departing upper trough will continue to produce isolated snow showers over the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountain ranges through the rest of the afternoon. the upper disturbance will continue south and east while high pressure build over the Great Basin. It looks like it will be slightly warmer across the San Luis Valley with lower 30s.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Upper levels have a trough extending from Canada to the Rockies that swings down through NM today while a ridge remains centered along the CA coast. This trough will slowly move into W TX tonight and pass on to Central TX Monday. Overall expect similar to a bit cooler high temperatures tomorrow in the 40s and 50s. One model tries to skirt the edge of Presidio County tonight with showers as the trough comes through but the rest are dry so not expecting any precip through Monday night.
Light and variable winds will become northerly and increase slightly overnight as a weak cold front passes through. An upper level low opening east of Baja California will eject east across Mexico and South Texas tonight and Monday, absorbing into the base of a digging trough. The digging trough will also send a weak cold front through the area tonight, with northerly winds behind it increasing through the morning and midday hours Monday. Weak cold advection behind the cold front may result in high temperatures on Monday a couple of degrees cooler than today.
High pressure will then rebuild for mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the week.
An upper level trough shifts across the area Monday which will help to usher in increased low level clouds and perhaps a few rain showers southeast of the I-65 corridor. Temperatures warmed into the middle to upper 50's for most locations this afternoon, and will dip into the lower to middle 30's inland and middle to upper 30's southeast of the I-65 corridor tonight. Cloud cover over the area may limit forecast highs to a couple degrees cooler than today, expecting middle 50's for most locations Monday.
However, north winds will remain elevated much of the week within the lower Colorado River Valley.
Current observations across the area have light winds and temperatures ranging from the low 30s to upper 20s which appears to be in line with our current forecast. Across far northern Kentucky, where lesser amounts of snow/ice were found, temperatures were in the lower 40s north of the BG/WK Parkways. For tonight, a weak cold front will move toward the region. We'll be in a return flow pattern, but we'll probably decouple once again allowing temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 20s across the region.
405 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary arctic boundary just north and east of the forecast area, with high pressure over the Rockies.
/NF/ Tonight through Monday: High pressure ridging prevails over the area today and this will continue into the overnight hours. Lows will be a little warmer overnight in the upper 20s to low 30s. A short wave will push a weak cold front southeast across the area early on Monday, but will mainly just reinforce the cold air across the area. High pressure ridging will build back in on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
549 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 H5 analysis tonight had a low off the coast of Baja California with high pressure noted off the northern California coast. Ridging extended north of the high into northern British Columbia. A cold front extended northwest of the low with a warm front extending southeast into southwestern Minnesota. this feature will force a cold front through the forecast area this morning with the bulk of the arctic air off to the northeast of the forecast area.