Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds have switched westerly behind the passing cold front here in Billings. Much cooler air mass expected today. Temperatures should be in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Saturday looks breezy and dry with the low pressure system sliding eastward over central Canada. Ridging in place over the northern Rockies should keep things dry through the weekend with near normal temperatures.
Upper level ridge is amplifying across the central CONUS this morning. At the surface, high pressure centered along the Carolina Coast and remain nearly stationary today. As the high strengthens, onshore flow will keep increased clouds and a chance for isolated showers along and near the coast.
Strong waa and deep layer forcing exits e Sat morning and gives way to ridging and mid level drying, there will likely be a lull in shower activity Sat morning. The higher pops on Sat evening ahead of the passing sfc front wl diminish during the night as the w flow in the wake of the cold fropa advects cooler and drier into the area. Given the better agreement of the ECMWF and GFS have opted to go the WPC preferred quicker solution bringing best chc of pcpn through the area Tue into evening with a drying trend Wed into Thu as ridging moves across the area.
Also this morning, upper low was noted over British Columbia with potent wave sweeping through the Pacific Northwest on its way to Saskatchewan where it will deepen overnight. That wave will push a cold front into the Plains tonight, reaching northeast Nebraska by midnight or so. Placement of cold front Saturday afternoon is still in question as Canadian and ECMWF are a little farther southeast and agree more with SPC slight severe risk only clipping our far southeast CWA.
358 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
Low-level dry air will be maintained by low-level east-southeasterly flow off the Atlantic rather than the Gulf due to low-level ridging along the East Coast, as well as deep mixing of drier air aloft. This will allow dewpoints to mix down into the low 40s to upper 50s by afternoon. Could also see some scattered lower clouds with 850 mb moisture increasing as 850 mb flow becomes more southeasterly as the low-level ridge drifts eastward. The upper level ridge and high pressure shifts off to our east on Saturday. 1000-850mb thickness values will still support highs in the low 80s. NAEFs is continuing to show anomalously high geopotential heights, so will edge the forecast on the warmer side of guidance once again, but don't think it will be quite as warm Saturday as yesterday or today.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge is over the eastern U. this morning with an upper low pressure system near the Pacific Northwest and over the Plains. The upper ridge will remain over the southeast U. as the upper low pressure systems move to the northeast and remain north of the ridge. A warm front in the Midwest this morning will slowly move north into the Great Lakes tonight. A cold front will slowly move through the Plains today and Saturday but should remain northwest of Arkansas through Saturday night. with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
404 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Dry conditions will continue until rain chances return with weekend low pressure.
A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft will remain across the southern Appalachians. Otherwise, summer-like ridging will produce unseasonably warm temperatures.
High pressure is beginning to build into the region behind the departing trough. With cold air still residing in the area and clearer skies through tonight, temperatures could drop to below freezing in the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois Valleys, as well as in portions of the Umpqua and Camas valleys.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes/southeast Ontario at mid afternoon. Short wave ridging has been building east across the northern Plains/Midwest through the day. Primary Forecast Concerns: Broad upper level troughing moving into the western U. Decent surge of moisture will accompany the push of warmer air. but by then warm front currently across the Midwest will have made some northward progress and may push into western Upper. with a stretched out cold front extending back southwest into the southeast MN/western IA.
Moisture axis in the lower levels will remain over the Brush Country overnight while drier air just above the surface will be in place across the coastal plains.
A dry day and night will follow, with the upper low in the Central Plains pulling away from the region.
Current H500 closed low over the Oklahoma panhandle will gradually lift NNE under anti-cyclonic flow, reaching NE Nebraska by 12Z Friday. At the surface, a shallow quasi-stationary inverted trough bisected Kansas from SW to NE. This boundary should weaken overnight as the upper low pulls north and WAA overruns the boundary. Low-level moisture/stratus will likely linger into the morning, but given the increasing pressure gradient/southerly winds tomorrow, expect the low clouds to mix out by early afternoon. A cold front frontal boundary will move through eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and bring the best chances for heavy rain and the potential for severe convection.
An upper level trough will maintain showers over the region through this evening. Showers will end tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
This seems to be where the best instability is forecast and the west side of far n GA is closer to the upper ridge. The upper ridge drifts e across the area for Saturday and looks to continue quiet weather as a warm southerly low level flow continues.
Main front blew through eastern Idaho last night, and now strong and moist westerly flow continues the precipitation today and into tonight before a dry air mass and high pressure move in to replace this feature.
and Saturday Warm advection and a weak upper jet may produce a few light showers and sprinkles today, but significant rain should wait until late in the day when showers and elevated thunderstorms will arrive ahead of a surface warm front. Not too much in the way of forcing for precipitation until later in the day when surface cold front and right entrance region of a strong upper jet approaches.
651 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A frontal boundary just south of I-72 is expected to lift back north as a warm front today, and should get north of CWA during early afternoon. Convection chances to diminish from sw to ne during this evening as warm front pulls further north away from area and mid level level short wave moves into western Great lakes. Upper level ridge over IL today continues to influence IL's weather on Saturday bringing a breezy and even warmer day in the lower 80s across the area. Should stay dry on Saturday with a cap in place, though GFS model is showing some qpf in southeast IL on Sat, but discounted that for now with upper level ridge nearby.
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will crest over our region later today and then move offshore tonight.
Warmer temps can be expected across the southwestern TX panhandle where sunshine is expected to be more abundant. This will limit initiation to the low levels.
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will maintain cool and dry conditions through tonight.
/BB/ Surface ridging remains wedged into the forecast area from the east with a broad ridge aloft over the southeastern states. Lowered min temps a degree or two based on latest obs and a blend with the lower end of MOS guidance matching almost a persistence forecast compared to last night's observed lows. Aloft, ridging centered just east of us, will also maintain its presence across the region.
Temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 60s. The Memphis metro may be slightly warmer. but high pressure and a ridge aloft should keep any development to a minimum.
520 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Dry conditions will continue until rain chances return with weekend low pressure.
337 AM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017 IF Satellite channels show nearly cloudless skies over the forecast area and clearly shows the cooling line associated with the cold front advancing to the southeast across WY and NW and central CO. The cooler temps behind this front will help keep humidities higher, longer into the day, along with less of a pressure gradient and less wind, eliminating fire weather concerns in the north.
149 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
634 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Under high pressure, a weak warm front remains nearly stationary across southeast Ohio Friday into Saturday.
344 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will crest over our region later today and then move offshore tonight.
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will maintain cool and dry conditions through tonight.
147 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will linger across the region tonight into Friday before lifting north Friday night.
Upper level ridging, perfectly placed along the Gulf coast states, will keep the primary storm track far enough to our north in the short term to keep central Alabama dry.
147 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will bring dry and cooler conditions that will last through Friday. Variably cloudy skies will continue overnight while we stay dry as high pressure slips off to the east. Low temps tonight will range from around freezing over the NE zones to the lower 40s along the MD border. It appears the strength of the upper ridge over the South Central/Southeast U.
646 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will linger across the northern portions of the region today before lifting north tonight.
126 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front currently over the midwest will lift north across the area by Saturday morning in advance of low pressure tracking across the upper midwest.
629 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure moving off of the eastern seaboard will maintain cool and dry conditions through tonight.
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 The period will begin with the Southeast upper level ridge breaking down and quasi zonal flow developing aloft.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows a weak short wave trough from north central Texas to the Mid-Coast moving slowly to the northeast. Short wave ridge over northern Mexico will move into south Texas tonight and remain over the region on Saturday.
220 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Warm frontal type showers are ongoing over northern IN/OH this hour, well north of our region.
With the drier airmass moving over combined with subsidence from the upper ridge affecting the area, have bumped temps up a bit from guidance today. Tonight, the upper ridge meanders a bit more east, with guidance advertising a maintenance of the drier airmass over the forecast area. The better radiational cooling from the drier airmass is balanced by warming onshore flow off the Gulf and subsidence from the upper ridge.
A warm front across the northern portions of central Indiana will move slowly north into the great lakes as low pressure over the central plains moves into the great lakes Saturday. A trailing cold front will bring thunderstorms our way.
124 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will bring dry and cooler conditions that will last through Friday. High pressure at the surface is keeping us dry while convective debris from old upstream activity has resulted in a shield of mid/high clouds streaming overhead. Variably cloudy skies will continue into the overnight but we will stay dry as high pressure slips off to the east. Low temps tonight will range from around freezing over the NE zones to the lower 40s along the MD border. It appears the strength of the upper ridge over the South Central/Southeast U.
336 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Under high pressure, a weak warm front remains nearly stationary across southeast Ohio Friday into Saturday.
Showers have ended across our region and we can expect dry weather through Saturday, with cool nights and warmer days.
103 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build in from the north tonight through Friday. The high will extend over the area from offshore for the weekend.
Tomorrows extended southerly flow will help to push that frontal boundary to the north as a warm front. but plenty of warm air moving in with brisk SWrly winds and sunshine should push temps into the lower 80s for the region. Low and cold front progged to move through the region later Saturday night.
Wind shear is so weak that it is unlikely that any of these will be strong, but later on we could have future development on the NE side as the low-level jet increases. An upper low pressure system in southwest Kansas will lift north across Kansas and Nebraska overnight and early Friday morning. A late afternoon/early evening storm cannot be ruled out but the better chances for precipitation return Friday night as convection which develops along the high plains rolls eastward with an advancing cold frontal boundary. The cold front scours moisture to the east early Saturday and conditions dry out behind the boundary. Guidance is suggesting low temperatures near freezing along and west of a line from Ord to Lexington with mid 30s generally west of a line from St.
At the surface, a warm front extends from southwest SD to near Omaha, NE and then eastward along the IA/MO border. This warm front will lift northward through today, moving into the southern forecast area by 00Z tonight.
301 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Under high pressure, a weak warm front remains nearly stationary across southeast Ohio Friday into Saturday.
Ample moisture will be found in the lower levels of the atmosphere this morning leading to a thick deck of stratus. Lee troughing will deepen by this afternoon over eastern Colorado with dry air being pushed over the Rockies into far western Kansas. A cold front will overtake the aforementioned dry line Saturday as it slides across southwest Kansas. This cold front will bisect the CWA by mid afternoon. Moisture at the surface as well as instability aloft will be high enough for storms to develop along this cold front.
Tonight, a upper level trough currently across the southern Plains will drift northeastward into the local area. These storms will progress (with the upper trough) slowly through the area from the overnight hours through Friday morning and into Friday afternoon before they finally push east of the area. Saturday, a low amplitude trough will shift from the eastern Rockies into the central and northern Plains forcing a cold front towards the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this front across northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas in an areas of modest instability of 1000-1500J/kg, and a moisture tongue with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
345 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
215 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
256 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather into tonight. The next chance for showers arrives Saturday with a warm frontal boundary.
131 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure slowly builds across the region through early Saturday.
These clouds were at the edge of warm air advection in the lower levels beginning to affect the region. This was closest to the departing ridge axis from the high pressure that affected the region yesterday. Upper level ridging will be over the area this morning which keeps the region rain free. The upper ridge moves over the Arrowhead and north central Wisconisn in the afternoon. Elsewhere, an upper trof lifts northeastward into Minnesota late in the afternoon. Used a blended approach to pops as the upper trof lifts northeastward through the rest of the region.
Warm frontal type showers are ongoing over northern IN/OH this hour, well north of our region.
Generally above normal temperatures are expected in this regime with a lee trough/dry line a persistent surface feature. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening mainly across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend where heating of the topography will enhance lift.
419 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will linger across the northern portions of the region today before lifting north tonight.
At the surface a warm front has lifted towards the Nebraska state line. Regarding severe weather Friday: NAM/ARW/NMM/GEM all show better potential for thunderstorm initiation with better moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere (east of the dry line). A cold front will push through the CWA late Friday night and early Saturday morning.
This higher deck may delay slightly the MVFR and eventually IFR stratus developing, but should eventually see it overnight along I-35 west to the Rio Grande.
425 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A southeasterly fetch off the Gulf is remarkably dry at 850mb as it swings around the periphery of an anticyclone over the southeastern states. Weak troughing will remain above North and Central Texas today, and even with some sunshine, afternoon temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal.
VFR conditions should generally prevail through the period, although a short window for MVFR ceilings will exist after midnight tonight at the NW AR terminals before a cold front pushes through. Temperatures will be much closer to normal on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region Tonight.
638 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Strong low pressure over the central plains states with widespread across much of South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. Expect this to diminish through the evening an inverted trough into this area weakens an moves east. A weak upper level low currently over southern Saskatchewan will drift southeast the next couple of days, keeping a chance of light snow or flurries across the forecast area. Current surface analysis places low pushing through Kansas with ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Cooler air pulls in behind the system bringing temperatures slightly below average.
614 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Strong low pressure continues to move northward in New England with high pressure building into the local area through early Wednesday.
505 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 Updated to end winter weather highlights across the higher terrain. Quick burst of snow possible along the I-25 corridor Broad upper trough over the Rockies today, with numerous spokes of energy rotating eastward across the area. At the surface, cold front has pushed south through the plains, with shallow upslope flow developing along and east of the mountains. On Wednesday, best forcing for precip will shift east of the region, though with secondary upper trough overhead and rather steep lapse rates, suspect most mountains will regenerate some flurries and snow showers by afternoon, though any accums will be spotty and light.
Did keep idea of low pops for spotty light snow/flurries spreading in overnight into wednesday as 500 mb trough moves over the area. As the low moves off towards New England and beyond, the area will be under north/northwest flow aloft for the majority of the period.
High pressure will continue. /Issued 245 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ A welcomed relatively benign and low impact forecast on tap as a mid/upper ridge of high pressure will dominate into Wednesday.
A few prefrontal showers will occur Wednesday, ahead of midlevel trof and associated surface cold frontal passage.
333 PM PST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will continue to provide us with dry weather through most of the day on Wednesday. Ridging will return later in the week, bringing dry weather through the weekend. Light winds and evapotranspiration should allow widespread frost and patchy fog to develop near the coast (roughly along and west of highway 101), with patchy freezing fog possible across the interior valleys. With this in mind we went below model guidance for the lows tonight, and went near guidance for tomorrow, with a possible increase with the highs tomorrow after the midnight shift has had a second look at this potential.
Will remove any mention of pcpn through midnight, but will leave the low pcpn chances after midnight, which mainly affect areas along and west of the Red River Valley. Did keep idea of low pops for spotty light snow/flurries spreading in overnight into wednesday as 500 mb trough moves over the area. As the low moves off towards New England and beyond, the area will be under north/northwest flow aloft for the majority of the period.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will transition to a southwest flow as an upper trough over the western conus moves east over the Great Plains. An associated cold front extending from the midwest states to the southwest states will approach the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon.
Scattered showers expected ahead and along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Windshift with cold front expected between 20-22z Wednesday afternoon. Cooler and drier air, closer to seasonal normals anyway, will prevail in the wake of this front as a broad upper trof becomes established over much of the CONUS. Until then, we are expected to remain cool and dry through the weekend with persistent NW flow at the SFC and in the low levels underneath a fast westerly flow aloft.
A cold front has moved through the Texas Panhandle, and will continue tracking further south overnight. After a well above normally warm day, temperatures tonight will only fall into the low to mid 60s across most locations. Temperatures tomorrow will stay in the the 70s in wake of the cold front. Elevated fire danger conditions will be possible as minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to lower 20s across inland areas, and in the low to mid 30s along the immediate coast. North winds will relax overnight, and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s across most areas Wednesday night.
630 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move across the area Wednesday morning.
739 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A band of light rain or sprinkles is possible this evening, but rain chances will increase late tonight into Wednesday morning across far northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan as a low pressure system and warm front approach.
1001 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Clouds linger under weak high pressure. Warm Wednesday before turning progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. areas of drizzle /freezing drizzle or snow flurries high elevations/ will continue this evening along with low ceilings. Shower activity should subside as high pressure builds and waa occurs.
910 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight and Wednesday.
West winds will precede the frontal boundary, but the gusty conditions currently across Oklahoma will remain closer to the associated cyclone. A dense cirrus plume within a powerful jet will gradually shift east with the departing cyclone. The unseasonably warm temperatures will come to an end as a cold front quietly sweeps through North and Central Texas late tonight. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, but the coldest air will take some time to filter into the region. The high clouds over North Texas this evening will gradually shift southward during the overnight and morning hours, and finally clear the region by sunset Wednesday.