Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system moves through region today bringing snow to northern Nevada. Temperatures rebound nicely into the 60s across the state as drier conditions associated with high pressure builds over the region.
There continues to be a wide range in the high temperature forecasts for today between the NAM and GFS with the NAM being considerably cooler. With an early spring sun working on the stratus layer, will continue to lean toward the warmer GFS forecast across the remainder of the forecast area. Upper level flow increases and becomes more southwesterly overnight as a large upper trough digs into the western states. Freezing precipitation will not be a problem as lows bottom out in the low/mid 40s. The medium range models show a large trough extending from the northern Rockies into southern California at the beginning of this period. As the northern part of this trough moves east, it will force a cold front southward through western Kansas on Monday.
Could see a few late afternoon showers over the higher terrain although we are expecting mostly dry day today. The Pacific trough responsible for our windy conditions today will be nosing into our far northern zones tonight and Monday. Models continue to advertise the southern end of this trough splitting off and drifting southward to Arizona through the day on Monday. This incoming trough will also act to knock temps back a few degrees as we start off the new work week, with afternoon highs slipping back to more "normal" values for this time of year. The trough moving into the Four Corners region on Monday night is accompanied by pretty dry air - only 0. 20 inch precipitable water at most, which supports forecast cross-sections that any developing showers will remain over the higher terrain.
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A back door front has shifted into the southern portion of the area early this morning bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps lingering through the day.
443 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Southwest mid level flow becomes prevalent today ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. Bufkit sounding analysis still indicates a potential for freezing rain given a warm nose aloft. There is still uncertainty however, given progged surface temps will be right around freezing. the northwestern part of the forecast area (generally along and north of a Morris to Lake Mille Lacs line) looks to have the potential to pick up 1-3 inches of snow, while freezing rain could still be a threat east and south of that line during the morning.
Several models, including the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian suggest some light showers may accompany this upper level trof, mainly across the srn zones.
Surface temps will be supportive of rain and/or freezing rain. Plan for slick roads due to rain freezing on impact with road/bridge/sidewalk surfaces. P-type could come down to surface temps, which should hover within a few degrees of freezing. Precipitation type will be a mix of freezing rain and sleet, along with an outside possibility for rain in the southern part of the CWA and snow along the ND/SD border. This system looks to once again produce a mix of precipitation types late Sunday night/early Monday morning, then again Monday evening when temperatures hover around the freezing mark.
The upper level ridge axis will continue to shift east of the region as a mid/upper level trough begins to dig in west of the Rockies. The pattern aloft remains the same though the weaker and slower trend of the mid-level trough is noticeable.
Drier weather is then in store for the remainder of the short term period as weak ridging builds in aloft. Ridging aloft will continue to build over the area on Monday. The axis of this ridge will then shift slowly eastward through midweek. At the surface, a warm front will approach on Monday and will move north across the region through Monday night. Monday will start out dry, but showers associated with the aforementioned warm front will start to move in from the southwest in the afternoon.
Showers will diminish today as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure continues to build into the area through the week bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions. The upper level trough has started to move out of the area this morning, however there are still quite a few showers across the area as of 3AM. The valleys will likely see fog and low clouds form from the recent rain and this may keep some valleys a bit warmer. Still it looks like near freezing to freezing temperatures are likely across much of the area. Interior Humboldt and Trinity counties will also see freezing temperatures but the growing season has not started there yet. Monday night will be significantly warmer than Sunday night, but frost is still possible.
436 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A backdoor cold front pushes to the south today.
As this occurs precipitation chances will increase along an ahead of a warm front associated with the attendant lee cyclone. A few areas of freezing drizzle will be possible late Monday night across far eastern ND and northeastern MN, but confidence in this is low due to model disagreements. Potential impacts from this round of winter weather will likely be confined to the Monday morning commute as afternoon temperatures climb above freezing.
357 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A backdoor cold front pushes to the south today.
Temperatures are slightly cooler behind the front with upper clouds also providing some slight cooling this afternoon.
415 AM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trof will remain to the west of the area today and tonight, resulting in southwest flow aloft over southern CO. South to southwest winds will pick up over the lower elevations later today, and will be gusty in most areas this afternoon and early in the evening. The NAM shows the potential for a lot of low cloud cover tonight across a good portion of the southeast plains, while the GFS is not as moist in the low levels.
141 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A back door front will move through the region early this morning bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps developing over our forecast area and lingering through the day.
502 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Today and tonight: early morning surface analysis had an 1011mb low over central Tennessee with a trailing cold front draped across our northwest most zones. Low chances of light showers will be carried in proximity of the cold front. The cooler air in the wake of the front will hold our northwest zones in the upper 60s but across our southern zones, warmer than normal temperatures are expected with sites reaching the lower 80s again. The low chances of rain along the front will shift north tonight as the boundary lifts north and be limited to north of Highway 82 by morning. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than normal again, remaining in the lower 60s across the southern half of our CWA.
Better chances of showers/thunderstorms arrive later today and especially overnight as the low-level jet strengthens to around 40-50kts. The better coverage should be across northeast OK into southern KS, north of the retreating warm front.
Monday afternoon through Monday night the main, large-scale upper-level trough axis finally moves eastward through eastern Montana. This will produce widespread clear skies on the backside of that trough axis, as NW flow aloft sets up from the west.
Surface wise, a formidable Western Atlantic ridge axis extends across central Florida and well into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Northern Rockies is under the influence of a large amplified trough which will park itself over much of the western U.
Better chance for storms will be after 04/00z when storms blossom behind the cold front. /Issued 419 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ Temperatures will warm to just below the seasonal normals today ahead of a cold front that will enter northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon or early this evening.
Cooler air will also be pushing into the region over the next few days with max temps nudging downward into the near normal to slightly below normal. Peak heating will also coincide with the strongest storms with enough instability lingering through the overnight hours to keep slight chance pops rolling with focus on the higher elevations. Western ridge will slide off the west coast this weekend with broad northwest flow aloft in place over our area. Expect unsettled and cooler weather to prevail through this entire period. Overall, temperatures will be tracking to the cooler side of normal with cloud cover and higher sfc moisture helping to knock temps back a bit. CPC conts the cooler and wetter odds right on through the 8 to 14 day period with the exception being over the Four Corners where some drying is anticipated.
The 8 am subjective surface analysis showed a weak trough across the northern Gulf of Mexico and north FL, and there were numerous showers and thunderstorms in its vicinity, including the coastal portions of our forecast area. There was a mid-upper trough across portions of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast, with multiple short wave troughs rotating around the base of this broader trough.
1108 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Upper trough axis has moved well south of the area and most of the convection is well off the coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. /issued 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ WV imagery shows our region under nw flow aloft, as the upper ridge remains anchored over the nwrn CONUS and large- scale troughing continues over the Great Lakes region. Despite overall disturbed upper low, dry pocket seen on WV imagery will likely keep our convective coverage scattered at best today.
Today through Friday night Latest water vapor imagery continues to show ridging over the western United States and subsequent downstream troughing over the nations mid section. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday behind the boundary and will continue to average below normal across the entire CWA.
Pretty active pattern moving into the region during this forecast period with a series of upper troughs passing through the area. Today there will be chances for some showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper trough and some diurnal support by the afternoon hours. Overnight into early Friday morning will be similar to previous overnight hours being dry, but better chances for showers and thunderstorms will move in Friday thanks to the stronger upper closed low over the Great Lakes that will drag a cold front through the region.
At the surface, an inverted trough extended from a low over Iowa northwestward to between Bismarck/Jamestown and between Minot/Rugby. A cool high pressure system was pushing into North Dakota on the west side of this inverted trough. Surface winds were northeasterly on the east side of the trough, and were northwesterly on the west side of the trough. and the surface convergence near the surface inverted trough. Look for a cool day with highs reaching the lower 70s over much of western and central ND, with only upper 60s in the James Valley, which should be the last area to clear out. Northwest flow aloft dominates the forecast period contributing to generally cooler than average temperatures across the area. High temperatures through the weekend should be in the 70s with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s.
Southerly steering flow will allow for storms to develop off the higher terrain such as the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, and Bradshaw Mountains before moving North-Northeastward. By Friday morning dry air associated with a low pressure system off the California coast will begin to move into the Yavapai county and should limit some storm development over the lower terrain Friday.
High pressure ridging across the state will keep fairly light winds in place and shifting to southwest and west in an afternoon sea breeze. Atlantic high pressure ridging over most of the Gulf of Mexico will maintain modest southeast to southwest winds today.
831 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Rain chances will gradually increase into Friday as a cold front approaches the region. Thus, the highest PoPs remain constrained to the northern CWA, but by late afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about everywhere.
Only adjustments were to bump up PoPs closer to the I-20 corridor while taking out chances in the Highway 82 corridor & into the Delta. PWs in the Delta will only be around an inch and a half or less, which will limit convection while better towards I-20 and the Highway 84 corridor, near 1. Removed mention of storms in the Highway 82 corridor & Delta as increasing subsidence/drying will limit chances of convection.
931 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley on Friday with showers and thunderstorms found along it. High pressure will build in for the weekend and bring drier air and cooler temperatures. Later overnight, a cold front will be approaching from the west, with thunderstorm activity found along it. The cold front will be east of the CWA at the beginning of the period with rapidly drying and cooling air found behind it for the overnight and rest of the weekend.
Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the front early this morning, mainly in northeast Colorado.
1230 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
Low pressure over southern Minnesota will track across the great lakes and pull a trailing cold front across Indiana late tonight and very early Friday. A humid and unstable air mass will occur prior to the cold front resulting in scattered thunderstorms by this afternoon and more thunderstorms tonight with the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will end quickly Friday as the front moves east and high Pressure over the middle and upper Mississippi valley build towards Indiana. An upper trough over the great lakes will produce cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend.
The cold front had exited the forecast area. Cooler today, with highs near 73 north central, to 75 to 78 across the south.
Early morning analysis of water vapor imagery indicates some continued ridge influence over the Western states. with broad cyclonic flow/longwave troughing extending from the northern Rockies to the Gulf Coast and across the Northeast.
An upper ridge to the west and trough to the east will keep the NW flow aloft over the area into the weekend.
An upper level low moving through the Northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area today. A few storms may develop along this cold front late this afternoon into this evening with the best chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
Southerly steering flow will allow for storms to develop off the higher terrain such as the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, and Bradshaw Mountains before moving North- Northeastward. By Friday morning dry air associated with a low pressure system off the California coast will begin to move into the Yavapai county and should limit some storm development over the lower terrain Friday.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
Southwesterly winds will give way to northerly winds starting after 17Z in the north and 22Z in the south as a cold front pushes through. The overall pattern will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure across the western states with an upper level trof over the eastern part of the country. For today and tonight, a weak cold front will slowly move southward across the area.
1031 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of the week.
A weak cold front continues to edge southward into the northern Texas Panhandle late this morning. However there is greater confidence that additional thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of northeast Colorado this afternoon will organize into a MCS that will propagate southeastward into our northwestern zones this evening. Some showers and thunderstorms may begin to move into our northwestern zones by the late afternoon as the cold front approaches the region. The cold front is currently draped from southcentral CO across southern NE to southwestern MN. Given the lack of meridional flow aloft and relatively low pressure rises there is reason to believe that the front will be slow to push through the FA and struggle to do so.
1038 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Aviation section updated Low pressure over southern Minnesota will track across the great lakes and pull a trailing cold front across Indiana late tonight and very early Friday. A humid and unstable air mass will occur prior to the cold front resulting in scattered thunderstorms by this afternoon and more thunderstorms tonight with the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will end quickly Friday as the front moves east and high Pressure over the middle and upper Mississippi valley build towards Indiana. An upper trough over the great lakes will produce cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend.
1006 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Weak high pressure will remain centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon before sliding farther offshore Friday.
Models show the wave of low pressure along the Carolina coast shifting toward the northeast on Friday. Continued with high end chance pops with the highest pops east. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night in the lower 70s. Broad troughing over the central and eastern U.
Near the surface, a cold front extends from extreme northeast New Mexico to northeast Kansas. An upper level low moving through the Northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area today. A few storms may develop along this cold front late this afternoon into this evening with the best chance of precipitation along the KS/OK border.
For today, cold front currently oriented southwest to northeast over southern NE, will track southeast through the region. Used a blend of guidance for lows with some uncertainty in how quickly the high clouds clear areas south of Interstate 70. Clear skies near the Nebraska border will easily drop areas into the lower 50s, with middle to upper 50s expected elsewhere.
1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Rain chances will gradually increase into Friday as a cold front approaches the region. Thus, the highest PoPs remain constrained to the northern CWA, but by late afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about everywhere.
Cooler and drier conditions are likely by this weekend with a return of night through morning low clouds near the coast. Conditions still look reasonably favorable for convective development today with the best chances over the mtns and Antelope Valley where a flash flood watch remains in effect due to the high pw's and weak winds aloft. Another warm and muggy day today but drier and cooler days are ahead. ***From previous discussion*** A 587 DM upper low will approach the bay area on Friday and will turn the flow to the SW. Skies will be clearer but the lower hgts and better onshore flow will result in a few degrees of cooling.
Cooler/drier air lags the front a bit, but drier air will work it's way in overnight with north sfc winds. This period looks unseasonably cool with global med range guidance showing an unusually deep upper level trough from the Plains to the northeast U.
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cool and breezy day will feel more early fall-like, under the influence of strengthening low pressure. Upper level trough currently digging into northeast South Dakota early this morning will continue to dive southeast through southwest Minnesota around midday, then exit the area this evening. Ongoing showers mainly focused near the stronger dynamics along the highway 14 corridor will also continue to rotate around the upper low this morning. Activity will taper off from west to east this afternoon as the low exits the region. With the cool airmass and clearing skies, lows tonight will also be quite a bit cooler than recently, with lows in the mid 40s to near 50.
651 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 We will remain within northwest flow as a cold front has cleared our area today. This will place lows well down into the lower to mid 50s, and even some 40s up by Ord and in our northern and northeastern CWA. This is a cool and wetter than normal pattern for us with an upper trough over central Canada down into the northern plains.
Scattered showers are currently over the Devils Lake basin area and mid Red River Valley and will move through the southern valley and west central MN and eventually out of the area today, due to the associated upper closed low moving east from the southern valley to western shores of Lake Superior. Expect a dry period for tonight as high pressure builds into the Dakotas from the northwest.
1027 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 12z soundings support high temps between 88-90 degrees this afternoon with convective temps also between 88-90 over the north to the lower 80's over the south.
1011 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Weak high pressure will remain centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon before sliding farther offshore Friday.
Still have an abundance of cloud cover across the region and have increased sky cover a bit through the morning, with some gradual clearing taking place through the afternoon as high pressure continues to build in. This seems possible given the placement of the upper level trough, cold air aloft, and steepen low level rates. It will be much cooler today, especially in the eastern CWA where cloudy skies are expected. Clearing skies in the west will allow temps to warm into the low 70s. This high will bring chilly temps tonight with low in the 40s.
Cooler and drier conditions are likely by this weekend with a return of night through morning low clouds near the coast. A 587 DM upper low will approach the bay area on Friday and will turn the flow to the SW. Skies will be clearer but the lower hgts and better onshore flow will result in a few degrees of cooling.
This seems possible given the placement of the upper level trough, cold air aloft, and steepen low level rates. It will be much cooler today, especially in the eastern CWA where cloudy skies are expected. Clearing skies in the west will allow temps to warm into the low 70s. This high will bring chilly temps tonight with low in the 40s.
705 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm advection and moisture convergence along and ahead of a pre- frontal trof at 850mb continues to produce isolated convection across parts of west central Illinois this morning. This wave will dig southeast today and tonight, amplifying the longwave trof over the eastern CONUS as it progresses. The low will move east-northeast this afternoon and tonight, driving a cold front through Missouri and Illinois. Carney Cold front and precipitation associated with it to exit region by daybreak on Friday.
A few showers are persisting across the southern valley and into west central Minnesota in association with the main upper low. This activity is expected to gradually diminish throughout the afternoon as the low begins to pull off to the east. Scattered showers are currently over the Devils Lake basin area and mid Red River Valley and will move through the southern valley and west central MN and eventually out of the area today, due to the associated upper closed low moving east from the southern valley to western shores of Lake Superior. Expect a dry period for tonight as high pressure builds into the Dakotas from the northwest.