Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds are light from the south, and temperatures are in the lower 70s. The remnants of a cold front nearby will dissipate completely this morning. The light and variable winds will pick up a northeast to east component by late this afternoon, and accelerate modestly tonight from the east thanks to high pressure advancing toward the mid-Atlantic coast. Otherwise, the energy which has supported the line of showers to our north will continue to move to the northeast, and the stronger shower activity to the west should lose intensity as it separates from the warmer waters in the southeast Gulf.
Regional sfc map shows the anticipated cold front currently lies over N FL and will approach Lake/Volusia counties before daybreak and cross through the remainder of the forecast area this morning. For the overnight, high pressure centered over the US mid-Atlantic seaboard will produce light to modest onshore flow at the immediate coast with light drainage conditions in the form of backed winds inland.
Cold air continues to surge southward into the Mid-State, with freezing temperatures now observed over about the northwest half of our area.
330 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 The majority of the pre-frontal convection has diminished over South Florida this morning as the cold front continues it progress southward over the peninsula of Florida.
Another wave within this flow is expected to increase precip chances along the Cascade east slopes, and over the higher terrain of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington between midnight and late Monday morning.
Skies were clearing quickly from northwest to southeast as high pressure/subsidence builds into the area. Tonight: Subsidence with high pressure settling into the area.
High pressure moving south resulting in westerly flow across the area this afternoon. The models continue to show a cold northwest flow aloft through the entire period bringing one surface Arctic high pressure area after another along with one clipper system after another.
This will be due to the combination of increased wind speeds along with temperatures expected to drop into the low teens below zero along the WI border and the single digits below zero elsewhere. The combination of stronger winds over the lake and colder air working down from Canada will make periods of heavy freezing spray possible today through Monday.
/issued 245 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Stout cold front continued to slice southwest across the southern TX Panhandle early this afternoon complete with a ~30 degree temp drop over 30 miles. Expectation is for the remainder of these clouds to dissipate before sunset at which point breezy NE winds will veer easterly and slacken through the night ahead of high pressure. As this high departs east of the region toward sunrise, moistening southerly winds should enable some low cloud development in the Permian Basin and extending north through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Any low clouds leftover Monday morning should be scoured east in response to much stronger and deeper westerly flow all ahead of a trough dropping SE across the central Rockies.
Colder and drier air is advecting in behind a departing cold front this morning. Temperatures in the valley as of 3 am are in the low to mid 30s.
1007 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 /06Z TAFS/ A cold front has pushed through most of the area late this evening. /issued 508 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ /00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move through the area this evening, resulting in gusty northeast winds of 12 to 16 knots. /issued 254 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ (Tonight and Monday) Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with cooler temperatures for Monday. A backdoor cold front currently situated along the Red River to our north will drop south across the area this evening, before washing out early Monday.
Cirrus was streaming into the Northland early this morning downstream from a developing area of low pressure in eastern Wyoming.
1133 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 A quick hitting upper level system with an upper level trough axis now over eastern KS and northwest MO will move through the region over the next few hours. High res models weaken forcing somewhat as it moves in, but could see a quick 1-2 inches with the higher amounts over the nw quarter of our forecast area. It will clear out quickly tonight as strong high pressure moves in.
Tonight and Monday Snow, and most of the clouds, exited the forecast area today as a low pressure system to our east continued to move away from the state and a passing mid level trough axis reached Lake Michigan. Another mid level trough, and isentropic lift due to warm advection, will bring a chance for light snow to the southern part of the forecast area Monday, mainly during the afternoon. Despite the cold temperatures, winds will be lighter than tonight, meaning wind chill values will be a bit warmer.
/issued 237 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the low and mid 50s with mostly sunny skies this hour. A cold front had just moved into Randolph and Clay counties with some increased cloud cover. the combination of the passing cold front with a descending jet streak across the Lower Missouri and Ohio Valley will bring light sprinkles and snow showers to the northern half of the CWA starting in a couple hours and into the evening as winds veer northerly and increase to 15 to 25 mph. High pressure crossing the Midwest tomorrow will bring a brief period of dry weather with light northeast winds becoming southerly by sunset.
103 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Low pressure will be moving farther away from the forecast area tonight. The pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend trough the area Monday night.
The persistent pattern of high pressure will continue much of this week with unseasonable warmth, dry conditions, and generally light winds expected. Our dry and mild weather continues this week as upper level ridging remains locked in just off the West Coast. Afternoon wind gusts will generally be in the 20-25 mph range with Sierra ridgetops seeing gusts reaching 40-50 mph.
Most obs are reporting snow, but GCC reported freezing rain a couple hours ago. Still expecting minimal ice accumulations, and any freezing rain should be short-lived as cold air pushes in.
Most of the hi-res models show the low level cloud deck diminishing as drier air moves into the area from the north over the Brush Country. With less cloud cover, temperatures could fall into the lower to mid 30s over the northern Brush Country.
Will go ahead and leave the freezing fog in the forecast.
245 AM MST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will continue to hold in place the remainder of the week resulting in above normal daytime high temperatures. The hemispheric flow pattern remains in a high amplitude blocking regime with anomalously high heights extending along the entire east Pacific basin. Some operational models suggest a secondary wave finally cutting through the ridge axis and intensifying somewhere near the SW Conus. Heights/thicknesses aloft will be maximized the next 48 hours over the forecast area in NW flow downstream from the core of the east Pacific blocking ridge.
High pressure will continue sliding to our south and east, with a subtle wave bringing a slight chance for very light snow overnight across far southern Minnesota. The upper air pattern continues to have a long wave trough over the center of the continent, with the baroclinic zone focused from eastern Montana, through South Dakota, Iowa, and into Illinois.
Cold front is well to our southeast this morning, with northerly winds advecting cooler air southward. Skies will gradually clear this morning, with highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Low level winds swing back to the south tonight, with overnight lows in the low 30s to low 40s.
Skies are beginning to clear across middle and parts of southeast Tennessee as high pressure was building in from the northwest early this morning. Temperatures should rise to a little below normal readings in the lower 40s to near 50 as cold air advection behind the front offsets the warmth from the sun.
Cool surface ridging that was in place over the region yesterday will move southeast today as surface lee troughing strengthens in New Mexico.
/issued 947 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ Areas of light rain that were slow to diminish across our srn areas this evening have finally dissipated/moved swd in the wake of a slow-moving cold front. High pressure will continue to build into our region overnight, gradually clearing the skies by sunrise.
1238 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 A cold front will move offshore early this morning.
Upper flow will transition from northwesterly behind the exiting trough to zonal by tonight. With the warm front moving back northward today, temperatures will climb back to near or just above normal for highs.
Main focus here will be with expected strong winds in the wind prone areas of southeast Wy overnight through Thursday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across Thursday night. Otherwise just some snow showers overnight into Thursday over the higher mtns.
1225 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure only sticks around for a brief stay Thursday.
1230 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 As low pressure moves away to the east, an area of high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Sunshine today will help warm temperatures to just a tick below normal with highs expected to range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
/issued 419 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018/ WPC surface analysis this afternoon shows a stationary front draped southward from the Ohio valley, along with a 1024 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda.
449 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure traveling across Kentucky will provide dry weather today.
220 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 A cold front will move offshore early this morning.
Heading into the day, skies will finally clear out as the low levels dry out ahead of approaching high pressure. With clearing skies by the afternoon, surface temps will rebound into the lower 40s for highs. By tonight, clear skies in place will make for a ridge to valley temperature difference setting up. So will still expect a significant ridge valley split.
High pressure Thursday. A warmer system will cross this weekend with unsettled weather. Trimmed the POPs back off the lowlands, but despite the lack of echoes and obs in snow, did not remove them from the mountains just yet. Colder air will move in behind the cold front this afternoon and evening, with any remaining precipitation transitioning to snow. Many areas will see a burst of snow on the back side of the precipitation band, but due to temperatures and a wet ground, don't expect any accumulations outside of the higher elevations. A high pressure system then builds in for Thursday. High pressure slides to the east Thursday night allowing surface winds to turn southerly bringing in warmer air through the end of the period.
Upper level analysis shows ridge off the west coast, with strong northwest flow from the Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains.
Earlier freezing precipitation has departed, but temps remain near freezing. Main challenge tonight is where clearing will occur and whether freezing fog can create new impacts to travel. With wet ground, some of the typical cold and fog-prone areas could develop patchy freezing fog toward daybreak. Expect dry and continued seasonably cold conditions on Thursday with the low-level thermal trof overhead.
We will see southerly winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph later today and milder temperatures returning with highs back into the lower to middle 50s.
1225 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 A cold front will move offshore this morning, followed by brief high pressure.
402 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 A cold front will move offshore early this morning.
1256 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 The cold front will continue pushing east through the area early this morning with high pressure ridging into the area from the north in its wake.
A trough was moving through the area this morning and was producing clouds and flurries as it moved through. The Northland will be sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure to the north and an area of low pressure to the south. Clouds will increase again tonight as the low passes through but the chance for snow should remain south.
Southwesterly 850 hPa flow will also return by Thursday afternoon, which will lift a surface warm front to the MO/IA border.
Highs today look to range from the upper 30s along the Nebraska and Kansas border to the lower 50s south of Interstate 70. Tonight a cold front will move southeast into north central and northeast Kansas as a result of mid level troughing from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Tonight's lows will vary from the teens to lower 20s north of the cold front to the mid 30s across east central Kansas.
343 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 (Today and Tonight) A very impressive amplified upper level ridge over Alaska and a Hudson Bay upper level low continue to result in a broad cyclonic upper level trough across West Central Texas.
Recent water vapor imagery showing upper trough axis to the east, rotating around the Hudson Bay upper low. Will have lows in the teens for most locations, with some rises late in the night as the warmer air surges in. 925 mb temps rise some 12-14 C across the area from this afternoon to Thursday afternoon for a much warmer day. Will still have some cirrus and a snowfield to contend with in the north, but still expect surface temps to be around 20 F warmer than today in general.
High pressure Thursday. A warmer system will cross this weekend with unsettled weather. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries Will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure to our east will provide weak pressure gradient and calm to weak sfc southerly flow through tonight. Winds at H850 will increase from the southwest to 30 knots bringing relatively warmer air.
400 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Upper level analysis shows a broad longwave trough encompassing the eastern half of the country. Breezy NW winds will make it feel cooler than that however.
Cloudiness will begin to increase from the south tonight as the the previously mentioned high pressure center moves off the eastern seaboard, resulting in return flow from the Gulf for the SE.
1010 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A northwest flow of colder and drier air is occurring in the wake of last night's storm system, but the low level moisture is proving to be more stubborn than the models predicted. The back edge of the low clouds stalled over the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri at midday. Surface winds will become light as high pressure passes nearly overhead late tonight. The forecast will mention patchy freezing fog in the Pennyrile region of west KY, where the low level moisture is greatest today.
Southwest winds will increase on Thursday around the backside of that high pressure. Highs should range from the upper 40s across central Missouri to the lower and even middle 50s over far southwestern Missouri.
High pressure Thursday. A warmer system will cross this weekend with unsettled weather. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries Will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure slides to the east Thursday night allowing surface winds to turn southerly bringing in warmer air through the end of the period.
Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a continuation of the deep/stationary Hudson Bay low with an upper ridge off the coast of California reaching into western Alaska and eastern Russia. Across the north and most of the James River Valley, expect very cold conditions with high pressure and dry air.
Removed any chances of fog tonight due to the expectation of southwesterly winds bringing in dryer and warmer air to the area, inhibiting development of fog.
The final uncertainty in the forecast is the Highway 20 corridor and Sioux City with the NAM continuing to suggest a secondary band focused on the 850mb front could form late Thursday night. Our far southern zones along Highway 20 could receive a bit of freezing rain before the column moistens to a deep enough level for complete ice introduction.
344 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 The cold front will continue pushing east through the area early this morning with high pressure ridging into the area from the north in its wake.
Where the low clouds lingered this morning (most of El Paso county) is also cooler with readings in the 30s.
1137 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure centered over southeast Nebraska will continue to move southeast tonight and Thursday. Cold air over the Plains associated with this high will continue filtering into the mid Mississippi Valley region into the evening. Mid clouds over the Plains should overspread much of the area tonight as the ridge axis moves into central Illinois. The clouds combined with increasing southerly flow should keep temperatures from bottoming out too low, and MOS guidance is a few degrees warmer than what was previously forecast. This should allow temperatures to warm back to near or even above normal in the low to mid 40s across most of the area south of the snow field.
Latest water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over roughly the eastern half of the CONUS with a high amplitude ridge over the Pacific. The downslope winds should help temperatures rise into the high 60s Thursday afternoon.
Winds turn around to the south and southwest today as the cold high pressure slides east and lee troughing develops over the central High Plains due to increasing downslope flow over the Rockpile.
A cold front has pushed to just north of Montgomery. Most of the remaining showers were along and south of the cold front, but an upper level short wave trof over Texas could bring some light rain back northward early this evening. The short wave trof axis will reach west Alabama later this evening, and the remaining rain will exit the southeast counties shortly after midnight.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the middle of the country with south-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front stretched from the Gulf across Deep South Texas into Mexico and then up to the Big Bend region. Behind the front winds were from the north across our CWA bringing cooler, drier air. The upper level trough axis will move past our CWA this evening and dry weather will return. Low temperatures tonight will drop below freezing across most of the northern third of the area with middle to upper 30s elsewhere. Thursday night the low level flow will become south to southeasterly bringing moisture back to the region.
There is some thermodynamic support in this layer, generally north and east of the surface warm front noted across the SE third of IA per the 08z surface analysis, but it's fairly weak so visibilities have stayed 3+SM. The aforementioned warm front will mature through the day well ahead of lee side cyclogenesis as a jet segment and associated mid level forcing cross the High Plains into IA.
Mixed precipitation possible this evening southwest of PIR, in the form of snow or light freezing rain for an hour or so.
Temperatures have warmed a bit even with the cold ridge on top of us thanks to the clear skies.
415 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will move across the Upper Ohio Valley today, then move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will slide slowly east today and will be centered over Ohio by this evening. All snow will come to an end this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
1248 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
333 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Warm air aloft is spreading across wrn and ncntl Neb this morning and should continue throughout the day before a strong arctic cold front arrives this evening. The light radar returns represent the warm front and the model consensus suggests the potential for some light snow or rain across nrn Neb today. It was the coolest model and this solution is consistent with strong arctic cold fronts which tend to out-race the models at night. The GFS one hour data was the basis for freezing rain and sleet along and just behind the arctic front.
323 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Satellite shows some mid decks rounding the base of the mean upper trof, and producing a little flurry activity into central IL.
Much warmer. Flow becomes more zonal aloft, encouraging weak lee troughing along the KS/CO border.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
232 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure today. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries Will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure to our east will provide weak pressure gradient and calm to weak sfc southerly flow through tonight. Winds at H850 will increase from the southwest to 30 knots bringing relatively warmer air.
322 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Wx map shows cold front well south of the coastal waters this morning, with high pressure building southeast across the midwest.
South southwesterly winds will remain slightly enhanced tonight as convergence increases along an approaching cold front, combining with increasing cloud cover to keep temperatures (relatively) warm during the overnight hours.
The offshore flow and building high pressure aloft will bring fair and warmer weather through Thursday.
Snow amounts will be on the low side (1 to 4 inches tops) with only the highest elevations seeing much in the way of any accumulation.
The axis of an upper level trough will slide across and then east of the local area today.
South winds will continue across western Kansas today at around 10-15 mph, with warmer lower tropospheric temperatures thanks to improved cross-mountain flow ahead of the next system. The leeside low will continue to push south down the High Plains as mid level heights lower, and strong cold frontogenesis at the surface will ensue.
As a result, temperatures are mainly in or approaching the low teens this morning, as the overnight lows were hit earlier in the overnight hours, with the exception of the far eastern portions of the state. Temperatures today will increase with increasingly southerly winds pushing warmer air into the region. Regions to the south will get into the low to mid 30s.
This will allow easterly wind flow and warmer than normal temperatures to continue across the region. This weekend the mid to upper level ridge will shift eastward allowing a cold front to work its was across the southeast US into northern and central Florida. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend with breezy winds east to southeasterly.
Cold front continues to push southeast across central ND. A cold front currently stretching from Sherwood south to Glen Ullin and into central South Dakota will continue moving east this afternoon, clearing the James River valley shortly after 06z Monday. Quite a density gradient as dewpoints are in the lower 60s ahead of the front, with mid and upper 40s coming in behind the front. Although there could be a brief, isolated shower, the high resolution models are scarce in terms of any significant reflectivity's associated with the front through this evening. With plenty of dry air in the lower levels, will go along with that idea and keep the forecast dry. Behind the cold front, smoke/haze evident across the west per surface observations.
1128 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Patchy showers over southeast parts of the forecast area at 19Z are expected to continue to diminish through the afternoon as upper trough over southwest Minnesota lifts northeast.
727 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 As all eyes are on southwest Florida with the landfall of Hurricane Irma, high pressure remains in control of weather over the Great Lakes. High pressure center continues to shift east to the lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday. Result will be increasing south to southwest gradient winds leading to warmer temps tonight than have been seen last couple nights.
645 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes region and stretching to the southwest across Illinois and Missouri will move little the next 24 to 30 hours. A clear sky will allow for good cooling tonight so have trended low temperatures to the low side of guidance.