Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low near Duluth this afternoon will dive southeast into Ohio tomorrow, dragging its attendant trailing trof through the Ohio Valley Thursday evening. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 90s but with afternoon dew points mixing down into the 60s heat index values won't be too far off from the temperature.
Cooler air will work in later tonight into Thursday behind a cold front which may generate a few showers.
The upper low was drifting over northwest Wisconsin with showers still dotting the landscape. Widespread showers will continue across much of the Northland while the affects of the upper low linger. High pressure ridging will build behind the departing low for Thursday resulting in increased sunshine and drier conditions for the Northland. Northeast winds over western Lake Superior may work to keep clouds and cooler temperatures in place for inland locations along the shore for much of the day.
Dew points in the lower and middle 60s have finally nudged into the southwest part of the CWA while the rest of the area has dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low pressure in Minnesota will move into the Great Lakes Region overnight pushing a weak cool front southeast through the area tonight. High pressure will build into the area from the north behind it. Some low level clouds may filter into the northeast part of the CWA during the middle of the night as the low skirts by to the northeast.
946 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Cold front has exited the far southeast ending the thunderstorm chances. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes. Approaching high pressure will then bring mainly dry weather overnight and Thursday, though a shower or two in northeast is not out of the question into the morning. Northerly winds will gusts to around 20 knots Thursday behind a departing low pressure system.
639 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The weak cold front backings southwest through central Nebraska and seen on the radar mosaic at this time could be a focus for isolated thunderstorms in the southwest this evening.
Surface analysis at 20Z had a lee trough over the high plains of Texas with weak high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. That said, surface dewpoints are still in the low/mid 70s with upper 70s along the coast. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge positioned over much of S Texas. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with this ridge slowly retrograding and expanding over the southern Rockies for the end of the week and weekend.
811 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Strengthening high pressure across western New York and Ontario will build eastward bringing a prolonged stretch of dry weather to the North Country through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and relatively low humidity levels are expected.
8 inches as the upper trof evolves over the eastern states, but remains sufficiently high to support a continued potential for locally heavy rainfall. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 90s except for upper 80s near the coast.
Still dealing with the large scale ridging that is keeping a tight lid on the region with massive amounts of subsidence aloft. Highs will once again be in the low-90s east to low triple digits over the Rio Grande Plains allowing heat index values to once again run in the 105 to 109 range.
/issued 403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas.
Expecting strongest convection to remain farther west into Kansas where the low level jet will be at play. However, most locations should remain dry with overnight lows falling into the low 70s.
Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over the region with clear to mostly clear skies prevailing. Dry high pressure now well established over the area. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
This will drag a cold front into the northwest ND mid to late Thursday afternoon, then into central ND Thursday evening. There is increasing potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front late afternoon through Thursday evening especially in central ND. With the surface cold front/wind shift in close proximity to the theta-e axis, would expect this to be the initiating point for thunderstorms.
Thursday Through Wednesday Heading into the weekend, an upper level high pressure ridge will expand northeast over the Northern Midwest and bring a short respite from shower/thunderstorm activity.
Dry high pressure now well established over the area. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
700 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The upper low was drifting over northwest Wisconsin with showers still dotting the landscape. Widespread showers will continue across much of the Northland while the affects of the upper low linger. High pressure ridging will build behind the departing low for Thursday resulting in increased sunshine and drier conditions for the Northland. Northeast winds over western Lake Superior may work to keep clouds and cooler temperatures in place for inland locations along the shore for much of the day.
Thunderstorms are possible today across much of the area since low level moisture has moved westward toward southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Temperatures this afternoon are again expected to be hot but may be a degree or two cooler than yesterday due to an increase in moisture. This strengthening of the ridge will limit thunderstorm development to the Davis Mountains and higher terrain for Thursday afternoon.
1203 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Better chances for precip are expected this afternoon and evening as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected tonight. Limitations included a weakening wind field and relatively warm mid levels, but these are expected to be offset as lift improves with the low advancing toward a very moist, and diurnally-destabilizing airmass. Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
On Thursday, thermal troughing will lean more toward ridging as +23c 850 mb temps spread across the area.
An upper trough will swing across the central/southern southern Appalachians Thursday keeping chances of convection going, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.
So for a good portion of south central Alabama it has been a cooler day, while northern Alabama has been cooler than the past few days but still muggy.
Widespread showers will continue across much of the Northland while the affects of the upper low linger. High pressure ridging will build behind the departing low for Thursday resulting in increased sunshine and drier conditions for the Northland. Northeast winds over western Lake Superior may work to keep clouds and cooler temperatures in place for inland locations along the shore for much of the day.
952 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Weak high pressure will remain in the area through Thursday.
724 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will bring humid conditions along with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. Low pressure is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon. Fries Better chances for precip are expected as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected Thursday night.
749 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Weak high pressure will remain in the area through Thursday.
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will lift north and through the region tonight. An area of low pressure will move in from the northwest and cross the area on Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Low pressure system/weak cold front moves through Thursday afternoon and evening.
738 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 WEAK FRONT VICINITY OF NORTH GA TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT TO THE NE.
1232 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR AND LESS HAZE. GIVEN THE SWLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.
A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin but is becoming stationary near MAF. /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning.
Hi-res models are consistent with pegging the highest PoPs across the far eastern portion of the area, thus the only change to the PoP forecast was to bring the slight chance a little further westward. The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast.
WITH LOWER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE DAY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DUE NORTH WITH VFR.
857 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. FRIES DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL.
HOWEVER, DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EXTREME E PACIFIC TODAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LOWS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS WEEKEND. BANDS OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
924 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 NEAR A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO MIDLAND. BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS. THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH. FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL.
low level ceilings were rotating through the region around the main upper low. the cold front will continue to make progress through far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the drier air trying to wrap into the upper low looks to move into and through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon/tonight.
1212 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
533 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ Convection has shifted east of the forecast area this morning with the advancing cold front currently located across eastern OK. The front is pushed further southeastward tonight allowing for lower dewpoints and cooler overnight low temps.
1239 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. FRIES DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL.
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
828 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
935 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
915 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO AFTER 00Z. AT THAT TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT ZONAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NOW CROSSING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER N GA AND N AL. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 63 80 63 / 60 70 60 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 63 81 63 / 60 70 60 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 63 81 62 / 60 80 60 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 60 79 58 / 60 70 70 60.
632 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this morning. prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and main southern stream speed max remains well south. Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted trough/upper low combine remain over the area.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE AREA. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER PATTERN.
1044 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 CURRENTLY - WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70. MAINLY DUE TO PATCHES OF CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS REINFORCED. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY.
1219 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
933 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OFF TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND DRIVEN AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST AND BRINGS INCREASED NORTH WINDS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
1128 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
BACKING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE INTRUSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
1156 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO TODAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES JUST TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM FURTHER, REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WEAKENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE. WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER PATTERN.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE GULF WATERS BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT UNTIL AFTERNOON THEN ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
928 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
924 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. TWO UPPER LOWS ARE ROTATING WITH EACH WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IN A FUJIWARA FASHION. WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS HOLDING IN STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOME ENERGY AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS IS BATTLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE GA/SC COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN COOLER UNDER SSE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TOWARD THE INTRACOASTAL. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES OF UP TO 20% EDGE TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP FADES BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER, DECREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MEANDER TOWARD BERMUDA AS A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDES OVER ITS NRN FLANK. TRAILING RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BACK TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR. REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA GENERATES A LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC.