Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
125 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 A short wave trough was moving across South Dakota early this afternoon and will continue to zip east and past the area this evening only to be quickly followed by another short wave trough overnight. Forecast soundings across northeast Iowa show a pretty large area of dry air in the low levels such that if any precipitation would reach the ground it should not amount to much more than sprinkles/flurries. A much strong short wave trough will move across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday morning.
A cold front and upper trough will move through, bringing light rain and perhaps some thunder to mainly areas along and south of I-44 late tonight into Sunday.
However, a cold front will move through the region just before day break Sunday morning. A cold front is still expected to push into the FA ahead of the upper trough before sunrise tomorrow morning with breezy northerly winds expected behind the front.
Southwest surface flow will prevail until a gusty cold front arrives, w/fropa at KHOB ~ 12Z Sunday, and KFST/KPEQ ~ 15Z. Up north, a cold front is stretched across the Central Plains.
Breezy/windy conditions continue this morning and is expected to continue through this afternoon as a strong high pressure ridge sets up over the eastern U. Additional shower are expected this afternoon as the cool front continues to move southward and the inverted trough off the east central Florida coast moves eastward.
Lee side low pressure was situated over the TX Panhandle, while the next cold front was sliding southeast over the Dakotas.
High pressure is moving to the east and the Gulf of Mexico is opening up in advance of the next front tonight and tomorrow.
400 PM EST Sat Nov 20 2021 Cold high pressure will move offshore through Sunday.
231 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Clearing skies tonight behind the upper level trough passage. A reinforcing cold front on Sunday, although the colder air will remain to our north and east. Incorporated the warmer MET and MAV guidance to warm highs to 50-55 across swrn areas. A dry cold front will then move thorugh Nebraska on Sunday but it looks like a glancing blow with most of the cold air be shunted off to the east.
Early Week Warm Up: Ensembles (EPS, GEFS & CMCE) all have anomalous upper level ridging building out of the West and into the Plains early in the week.
Upper flow will quickly become more southwesterly as the next trough and trailing cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
In addition to the low clouds, patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop across the southern areas once again. A trough axis will pass through the Central Plains tonight and tomorrow morning and will send the next cold front into South- Central Texas tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 70s in the Hill Country where the front is expected to move through in the early afternoon to the lower 80s with the later FROPA in the southern CWA.
351 PM EST Sat Nov 20 2021 Cold high pressure will move offshore through Sunday.
A cold front moves through Sunday, bringing a swath of rain starting tomorrow morning and lasting most of the day.
Discussion: High pressure just to our east puts our region within southerly flow in the lower levels. This southerly flow, along with high clouds, will lead to slightly warmer temperatures tonight compared to last night. Overnight lows will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer. Southwest flow increases tomorrow ahead of an upper level trough moving in from the northwest. This results in warmer highs tomorrow with temps in the upper 50s to near 60, which is actually normal for this time of year.
Light drizzle or freezing drizzle is also expected to fall out of the low clouds at times today.
With dry conditions in the lower levels, expect sprinkles or virga at best. An area of low pressure currently in Alberta, will strengthen some as it pushes across southern Canada tonight into the morning hours on Sunday. High pressure will slide southward into the region on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures with highs in the 30s.
(This evening through Sunday) The cold front over northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will push southward overnight and will have moved through the forecast area before noon on Sunday. This will bring in cooler temperatures, albeit closer to average for mid-late November.
Cooler weather is expected Sunday with many areas struggling to get out of the 30s as cold air advection persists on the heels of a departing wave, although the coldest air will settle across the eastern portion of SD into central ND.
Highs in the mid to upper 40s today and a couple of degrees warmer on Sunday. Lows will be in the 30s for the lowlands. Isolated rain showers this morning, mostly dry weather through Sunday with high pressure building into the area.
1043 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Current forecast is on track for highs today that generally will be in the lower 70s under plenty of sunshine. High pressure to our east will shift the winds to the southeast today, and temperatures will be warmer than yesterday. A cold front approaches our region on Sunday, so rain chances go up during the afternoon in east Texas.
1110 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Variable high level cloud cover expected today with an overall increase late in the day and tonight ahead of positive tilted longwave trough and associated eastern Pacific connection. Associated and ahead of this trough, relatively weak cold front will progress slowly across the region late today and tonight. While is should be noticeably warmer today than the temperatures seen yesterday, mentioned high level cloud cover and weaker/developing northerly winds should keep highs in the 60s across the northern half of Oklahoma, while southern Oklahoma and northern Texas could see highs well up in the 70s.
259 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 The strong cold front moving through late tonight into Sunday morning will be the main forecast challenge and it will bring at least some impacts to the area.
For Sunday, high pressure will sink southward across the Great Plains. A brief surge of northerly winds of 10-20 kt is expected through the day as the high moves south and temporarily adjusts the MSLP gradient. This supports mix down temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Zonal flow aloft will persist, with a digging trough axis mainly situated across the Four Corners- Intermountain W. Lows will be above climo areawide, while closer to climo in the low-mid 40s NE while 5-10+ above climo in SW. Sunday-Sunday night: Split flow aloft will lead to a slower E progression of zonal jet over Intermountain W to central Plains, while more prominent upper jet will help more forced trough axis dig through the Great Lakes. Lows will be closer to climo in the mid 40s N to above climo in S in the low-mid 50s.
A surface cold front moves through the area Sunday morning. This will lead to a cooler day and a burst of gusty northwest winds.
(This evening through Sunday) Main concerns in the short term include elevated fire weather danger across the northwest, low cloud development late tonight over the southeast, and a cold front tomorrow. Winds will decrease by sunset, and cooler temperatures will allow humidity levels to rise. A cold front will make its way southward in the morning, reaching Abilene by sunrise, San Angelo by mid morning, and the I-10 corridor by early afternoon. Expect gusty north winds and cooler highs in the 60s for tomorrow.
High pressure moves east today in advance of the next front coming in tonight/tomorrow. Clouds will lower with time as a cold front will start to knock on the door toward the end of the taf period.
As the surface cold front approaches from the west, deeper moisture and dynamics will combine for development of widespread rain across most of the region, with the highest PoPs over easternmost MO, western KY, and southwestern IN during the day Sun as the front continues to move eastward. After a mild night tonight in the lower half of the 40s, and highs in the 50s Sun, lows Sun night will be at or below freezing.
High pressure moves east today in advance of the next front coming in tonight/tomorrow.
237 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Rapid temperature changes will continue for West Texas as another cold front moves through on Sunday. A short wave aloft will move across the High Plains overnight tonight with strong upper ridging moving onshore on the west coast. A weak surface front/surface pressure trough has advanced into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
(Through Tonight) Low level moisture will continue to increase for the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight, resulting from strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight lows will be above normal and in some cases, well above normal, given the low level winds and moisture. Forecast lows have been trended toward the NBM 50th percentile, which features slightly cooler temperatures in northeast Oklahoma following the frontal passage.
1126 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Large scale ascent with a well positioned jet streak sliding by to our south and some frontogenetical forcing will move across the High Plains today into tonight. A dry cold front will then move thorugh Nebraska on Sunday but it looks like a glancing blow with most of the cold air be shunted off to the east.
251 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 A cold front will move south across the Panhandles tonight.
High pressure in place along with some high clouds across the forecast area. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 60 44 51 28 / 0 20 80 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 58 42 48 24 / 0 30 80 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 56 41 48 24 / 0 50 80 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 56 41 46 20 / 0 20 80 30 0.
Southerly to southwesterly flow near the surface has pushed temperatures into the upper 50s for most locations this afternoon, with a few spots seeing values in the low 60s. This feature will provide lift coincident with a cold front moving through the CWA, producing spotty light rain mainly along and east of the Mississippi River around midnight through Sunday morning. However, a second and much stronger front will pass through the CWA late on Sunday as an upper-level trough digs into the Midwest.
From synopsis, moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes will continue across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon and tonight, as high pressure slides eastward into the western Atlantic.
Owed to the northeasterly flow, the highest rain chances will continue to be in the Upper Keys, although low-end chance PoPs seem appropriate for even the Lower Keys.
1250 PM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 Weak upper trough was sliding out of the area this afternoon with decreasing clouds in its wake. Upper ridging builds in tonight and Sunday for a dry short term forecast.
A cold front approaches the northwest this evening, crossing the state overnight. Actual temperatures will range from the single digits above zero north to the lower 20s south. Sunday will be chilly and breezy with some clouds floating around, giving way to another chilly night (but with much less wind) with lows ranging from around 5 above zero northeast to the lower 20s southwest. The work week begins with a warm up as upper level ridging tries to build back in. Highs will rebound nicely, ranging from the lower 30s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
Scattered -SHRA wl develop along and ahead of a cold front that will approach the nw Sunday aftn. Zonal flow aloft will persist, with a digging trough axis mainly situated across the Four Corners- Intermountain W. Lows will be above climo areawide, while closer to climo in the low-mid 40s NE while 5-10+ above climo in SW. Sunday-Sunday night: Split flow aloft will lead to a slower E progression of zonal jet over Intermountain W to central Plains, while more prominent upper jet will help more forced trough axis dig through the Great Lakes. Lows will be closer to climo in the mid 40s N to above climo in S in the low-mid 50s.
538 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Clearing skies tonight behind the upper level trough passage. A reinforcing cold front on Sunday, although the colder air will remain to our north and east. Incorporated the warmer MET and MAV guidance to warm highs to 50-55 across swrn areas. A dry cold front will then move thorugh Nebraska on Sunday but it looks like a glancing blow with most of the cold air be shunted off to the east.
Tomorrow's cold front will come in conjunction with hefty northwesterly winds, with gusts potentially reaching 40mph.
Analysis of ensembles and clusters continue to show a roller-coaster ride of ridge-trough-ridge across Montana through the coming week. Underneath the ridges, temperatures above normal are expected, and then once the troughs move through, near to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures will be likely.
515 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front over northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will push southward overnight and will have moved through the forecast area before noon on Sunday. This will bring in cooler temperatures, albeit closer to average for mid-late November.
435 PM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 The midlevel trough and associated cold front currently bisect the forecast area from west to east. Lift focused along the front is supporting a band of showers, which may produce a quick burst of snow in the higher elevations. The highest snowfall totals still look to be the northern and central mountains. With the new air mass and less clouds lows tonight should run 5-10 degrees cooler than this morning. Northerly flow behind the trough will usher in drier air tomorrow putting an end to any lingering snow/clouds. Highs will run roughly 5 degrees cooler than today, although expect mostly sunny skies.
Low pressure intensifying between Lake Superior and James Bay will push a cold front toward the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with a well focused moisture feed along the front.
524 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 A short wave trough was moving across South Dakota early this afternoon and will continue to zip east and past the area this evening only to be quickly followed by another short wave trough overnight. Forecast soundings across northeast Iowa show a pretty large area of dry air in the low levels such that if any precipitation would reach the ground it should not amount to much more than sprinkles/flurries. A much strong short wave trough will move across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday morning.
A cold front will enter the SE NM terminals around 21/12Z followed by the W TX terminals between 21/14Z-15Z. Up north, a cold front is stretched across the Central Plains.
502 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Main concerns in the short term include elevated fire weather danger across the northwest, low cloud development late tonight over the southeast, and a cold front tomorrow. Winds will decrease by sunset, and cooler temperatures will allow humidity levels to rise. A cold front will make its way southward in the morning, reaching Abilene by sunrise, San Angelo by mid morning, and the I-10 corridor by early afternoon. Expect gusty north winds and cooler highs in the 60s for tomorrow.
555 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (Through Tonight) Low level moisture will continue to increase for the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight, resulting from strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight lows will be above normal and in some cases, well above normal, given the low level winds and moisture. Forecast lows have been trended toward the NBM 50th percentile, which features slightly cooler temperatures in northeast Oklahoma following the frontal passage.
/Issued 251 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021/ A cold front will move south across the Panhandles tonight.
624 PM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 Satellite imagery shows a clipper in southern Saskatchewan, and latest surface analysis depicts a cold front near the Canada/ Montana border as of 01z. This front will bring a shot of cooler air and a wind shift to NW-N-NE later tonight, mainly east of Billings, but there is some uncertainty how far west a wind shift will be felt (it could reach KBIL briefly). JKL Weak upper trough was sliding out of the area this afternoon with decreasing clouds in its wake. Upper ridging builds in tonight and Sunday for a dry short term forecast.
High pressure will dominate the period with dry conditions.
215 PM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 The midlevel trough and associated cold front currently bisect the forecast area from west to east. Lift focused along the front is supporting a band of showers, which may produce a quick burst of snow in the higher elevations. The highest snowfall totals still look to be the northern and central mountains. With the new air mass and less clouds lows tonight should run 5-10 degrees cooler than this morning. Northerly flow behind the trough will usher in drier air tomorrow putting an end to any lingering snow/clouds. Highs will run roughly 5 degrees cooler than today, although expect mostly sunny skies.
There is a small chance that patchy fog and freezing fog will develop for area valleys late tonight through Sunday morning.
910 PM EST Sat Nov 20 2021 A cold front south of the Treasure Coast will linger in place tonight.
A low pressure system will produce cloudy and cool conditions for the middle of the week, otherwise temperatures will continue to run right around normal. A weak mid level trough is scouring out the low stratus and fog from north to south this afternoon. Where we see more sun this afternoon, is where the slightly warmer temps will be.
This evening through Sunday night As the previous trough moves out of the area today, a drier northwest flow will set up in its place. Northwest flow continues on Sunday, with mainly clear skies and seasonable highs as a ridge begins to push in from the west.
Dry conditions continue through Sunday night with a ridge developing over the forecast area. Temperatures will mostly warm on Sunday, though an inversion over the Treasure Valley will keep temperatures on the cooler side for Sunday.
A cold front will move through the area early Sunday morning, bringing a wind shift to the north, followed by increasing wind speeds, becoming sustained in the 15 to 25 kt range through Sunday afternoon. /issued 237 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021/ Rapid temperature changes will continue for West Texas as another cold front moves through on Sunday. A short wave aloft will move across the High Plains overnight tonight with strong upper ridging moving onshore on the west coast. A weak surface front/surface pressure trough has advanced into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
945 PM EST Sat Nov 20 2021 Cold high pressure will move offshore through Sunday.
1044 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Main concerns in the short term include elevated fire weather danger across the northwest, low cloud development late tonight over the southeast, and a cold front tomorrow. Winds will decrease by sunset, and cooler temperatures will allow humidity levels to rise. A cold front will make its way southward in the morning, reaching Abilene by sunrise, San Angelo by mid morning, and the I-10 corridor by early afternoon. Expect gusty north winds and cooler highs in the 60s for tomorrow.
A cold front will enter the SE NM terminals around 12Z followed by the W TX terminals between 14Z-15Z. Up north, a cold front is stretched across the Central Plains.
For the daytime, an approaching cold front will bring widespread showers.
157 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021 The cold front has pushed through the northern half of the FA and is currently stationary across the central South Plains. Highs today will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, upper 750s to low 60s. This morning's focus remains on an upper level short wave trough progged to move across the intermountain West during the middle of the week. The trend of the models continues to be toward an open trough moving across the southern Plains with any closing of the trough occurring well to our south/southwest.
1054 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The cold front over northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will push southward overnight and will have moved through the forecast area before noon on Sunday. This will bring in cooler temperatures, albeit closer to average for mid-late November.
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain over Western Washington through Sunday night.
Cold front will begin to push south overnight with scattered showers developing ahead of boundary across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
237 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021 Rain has developed across the southern half of the forecast area as isentropic lift ramps up across the area in advance of an upper trough. Upper forcing will shift off to the east this afternoon, and a weak surface front/trough will move through as well. As the true colder air doesn't arrive until the main cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will warm some during the afternoon, especially west where rain will end first.
Readings are mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, or about 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The aforementioned cold front will move into the region late tomorrow afternoon with better chances for widespread rainfall. A cold front moves through Sunday, bringing a swath of rain starting tomorrow morning and lasting most of the day.
321 AM EST Sun Nov 21 2021 Cloudy and mild conditions are expected today ahead of a cold front moving in from the west.
Aloft, a 250 mb postive tilt trough was pushing eastward through the eastern Gulf with the entrance into an upper jet across Florida. As rainfall amounts ranged from the locally generous totals in the sounds near the upper Keys, very little if anything was measurable in the Lower Keys. High pressure sitting over the Mid- Atlantic will continue to slide eastward over the western Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes through tonight.
A cold front will pass through the area early Sunday morning bringing a northerly wind shift. /issued 237 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021/ Rapid temperature changes will continue for West Texas as another cold front moves through on Sunday. A short wave aloft will move across the High Plains overnight tonight with strong upper ridging moving onshore on the west coast. A weak surface front/surface pressure trough has advanced into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
Looking at the EPS, you don't really start seeing signs of a more significant shift in the pattern until December 3rd and beyond, so we're about 2 weeks out from seeing something other than our generally dry weather with above normal temperatures that is broken up by brief cool downs behind dry cold fronts. The first of those dry cold fronts is screaming southeast across NoDak early this morning and is still expected to make a quick passage across our area, clearing Eau Claire around 10am.
A trough will dig into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and pull a cold front into the TN Valley by the afternoon/early evening hours. We will see cloud cover become bkn to ovc, but despite the lack of sunshine, southerly winds will get daytime highs to reach the lower 60s. Showers return to the forecast after lunchtime and spread from west to east through the day as the cold front slides across before tapering off during the overnight hours. However, in the wake of the front, strong high pressure will build in, creating a gradient of breezy northwesterly winds, and pull dry air in to clear out cloud cover.
254 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021 A cold front will push southward through Nebraska today. Expect this to yield a fairly large range in temperatures today with highs ranging from the lower 40s up near the Niobrara valley to the lower 50s across southwestern Nebraska near Imperial. The increasing mid/high clouds will be associated with a warm front that will bring a quick turn around to temperatures well above normal.
1109 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021 Clearing skies tonight behind the upper level trough passage. A reinforcing cold front on Sunday, although the colder air will remain to our north and east. Incorporated the warmer MET and MAV guidance to warm highs to 50-55 across swrn areas. A dry cold front will then move thorugh Nebraska on Sunday but it looks like a glancing blow with most of the cold air be shunted off to the east.