Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By Wednesday night, a deepening trough over the Great Basin is forecast to close off and move northeast into the Rockies.
Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains tonight with warm front pushing through western South Dakota. Forecast soundings support a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow.
Pieces of energy or weak weather disturbances will spin off of a large area of low pressure sitting over the eastern Pacific.
In addition, ridge axis was located Southern Plains to Montana and deep wave off the west coast.
138 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 Cold front had moved south into far northern Arkansas and Kentucky early this morning. The cold front will move farther south of the area tonight and high pressure will move into the area from the north. Britt High amplitude pattern will set up Wednesday with a longwave trof over the eastern U. and a ridge building over the Great Plains. The high will drift east-southeast through the day.
238 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 High pressure to the northwest continues to nudge in with dry weather expected into tonight. Temperatures will feel cooler tonight as they drop towards 20 degrees.
259 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure will continue to control our weather pattern through the middle of the week.
554 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain across our region through the middle of the week. Sfc pattern acrs the area looks similar to last night with ridge axis present acrs most of the CWA. Showers are beginning to creep twd the waters but they wl lkly weaken and eventually dissipate as they run into drier airmass fm ridge. Tonight will be mostly clear across the north and clear to partly cloudy Downeast as a strong upper ridge remains across the area. Otherwise, Tuesday will be warm and dry with ridging remaining across the area.
If a shower develops on the higher terrain features late this afternoon into the early evening it will be isolated and short-lived. It should remain dry all the way through Tuesday afternoon as the strong ridge axis expands farther east into the Mid South.
252 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. The center of the high will push further southward towards the southeastern states through tonight. Large upper level ridge to our west will slowly move eastward through mid/late week.
355 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a ridge across the sern U. Upper air pattern changes little for this forecast period with upper flow from sw-ne and area on periphery of the ridge. There could be some showers/TS by late this evng ahead of a cold front, and have some vcty shra and tstorms to cover this.
330 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis showed a broad height ridge over the lower MS River valley. A tropical maritime airmass prevailed under this ridge, with precipitable water values around 2 inches. A persistence forecast will hold for the next several days, with the possible exception of less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps.
253 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses.
320 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. The center of the high will push further southward towards the southeastern states through tonight. Large upper level ridge to our west will slowly move eastward through mid/late week.
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure centered over Maine is pushing down into the Mid Atlantic. Low pressure is located well east of Ocean City.
605 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
(Issued 957 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to churn over the Atlantic producing dangerous rip currents and gusty winds along the northeastern seaboard. Closer to home, surface and upper level ridging is firmly in place across much of northern and central Alabama this morning. Based on current temperatures in the lower 80s in most locations, lower 90s look like the general rule again today.
Persistent return flow maintains a warm and humid air mass across the region tonight, and overnight lows will be several degrees warmer tonight compared to last night for most locations.
Upper level analysis shows broad trough over Great Basin with high pressure over the Mississippi Valley region.
255 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain across our region through the middle of the week. Tonight will be mostly clear across the north and clear to partly cloudy Downeast as a strong upper ridge remains across the area. Otherwise, Tuesday will be warm and dry with ridging remaining across the area.
For tonight will maintain some showers/storms over mainly the eastern cwa as a weak trof moves northeast in the strong southwest flow aloft.
Deep layer ridging remains firmly in place across much of the southern US helping to keep relatively benign but warm conditions in place.
Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s common across the region. However, coverage will be rather limited with 500mb ridge still sitting over us. Upper ridge axis still remains in generally the same position, extending from the eastern Great Lakes down through Texas.
1131 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 Updated to increase morning wind speeds over the higher terrain. Northern stream upper trough across ID/Wrn MT will eject to the northeast today while more energy drops into the mean trof across the western U. however as the upper trof edges eastward tonight. approaching trof out west may spread isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms into the southwest mountains overnight. Temperatures should be mild again for most areas with lee troffing supporting enhanced south/southwesterly downslope winds for the southeast plains.
A trough over the western states will bring another day of dry southwesterly flow to Arizona on Tuesday.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a ridge across the sern U. Upper air pattern changes little for this forecast period with upper flow from sw-ne and area on periphery of the ridge. There could be some showers/TS by late this evng ahead of a cold front, and have some vcty shra and tstorms to cover this.
However, isolated convection lines up all the way southwest into northern Arkansas, along the periphery of the upper high that is centered over Mississippi this afternoon. The higher-resolution NMM/ARW also show some popcorn type convection over our area by afternoon, although in an area where the mid-level cap will be strengthening a bit, so will keep the forecast dry for now. Temperatures on Tuesday expected to be a tad warmer than today, mainly in the lower 90s.
Upper level ridging strengthens over the southern U.
A upper level trough extending from the northern Rockies south through the Great Basin will move slowly east across the region during the first half of the week. Cooler and generally dry conditions will exist through at least mid-week.
The forecast area resides under northerly flow aloft this afternoon between mid and upper-level ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley and mid and upper-level troughing off the East Coast. Low- level flow is mainly southeasterly around low-level ridging centered along the Appalachians.
Highs likely will only top out in the lower to mid 70s, where mostly sunny skies highs around 90 expected. Next wave rounding trough seen in IR over wyoming. The overall synoptic pattern will undergo little change on Tuesday as an upper level trough over the intermountain west feeds a steady stream of enhanced southwesterly flow across the Rockies and onto the central/northern Plains. elongated low pressure extends from SE Colorado northeast into central Nebraska with a inverted trough extending northward into southern Minnesota. The models are keying on a disturbance from the southwest sparking off the convection as heights begin to slow fall across northern Colorado with the approach of the parent trough.
Prevailing surface dew points in the lower 70s, and ambient air pm highs in the lower 90s, will be the rule thru the mid week, as broad H5 High pressure aloft ridges/anchors across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. This may end up capping convection, but there's enough intermittent windows of slightly cooler temps aloft to suggest periods of daytime for development, or at least its isolated to widely scattered mention as a possibility.
Farther west sct shra in central ND associated with wave lifting through western trough might clip parts of the DVL basin so kept pops there.
As a cool low pressure system moves through the Great Basin, temperatures will fall to around freezing again tonight.
154 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. The center of the high will push further southward towards the southeastern states through tonight.
Lower 60 dewpoints and steady SE winds have held sfc temps into the lower to middle 60s. Sfc convergence and initially the best 850mb WV transport highlight Minnesota and Wisconsin for the higher likelihood of thunderstorms.
1156 AM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 A warming trend is expected through the middle of the week as a deep trough of low pressure weakens and moves east. A trough will bottom out across southern California today before shifting east tonight and Tuesday.
Numerous showers and isolated storms will transition southward south of a Kissimmee to Melbourne line into this evening as the low level frontal trough moves towards Lake Okeechobee this evening. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Onshore flow will persist through the extended as West Atlantic high pressure builds back in, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. NE winds to around 15 knots behind the frontal trough dropping south across the waters and building NE swells through late Tonight should allow combined seas to peak from 5-7 ft in the offshore Gulf Stream waters late tonight. High pressure will build back in north of the area with a persistent onshore flow through the week.
The driest air remains over NWRN sections of the CWA where dewpts are in the low 60s. An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the region through the short term period.
143 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east allowing a southerly flow of warm and humid air.
A lee trough will remain with strong south winds of 25 to 38 mph until evening, then slack off at 10 to 20 tonight. For Tuesday, an upper level trough will continue to push towards the High Plains region with a similar upper air pattern.
Tonight, the 80kt jet associated with the Great Basin trough will shift from NE Utah into NW Colorado. Tuesday night, the upper trough works overhead shifting the winds to west.
On Tuesday, mid and upper level ridging will strengthen over the region and this should result in a little less coverage of showers and storms.
428 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses.
The leeside trough will remain in its usual location from southeast Colorado into western Nebraska with a pretty good southwest flow aloft continuing. The boundary layer convergence along the lee trough will promote surface-based convection once again, anytime after 20Z. The lee trough along the Colorado border will be the focus again for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Have a fantastic Labor Day! High pressure will remain anchored to the north of the waters, with persistent east to northeast winds.
In the upper levels, 12Z 500mb analysis shows upper level high placed across the Southern Mississippi River Valley and ridging extending NE into NY state.
12z upper air analysis showed an 850mb thermal ridge extending from the southwestern CONUS all the way into southern MN with dewpoints around +16 to 17C aided by a 50kt southwesterly low level jet. a cold front extended northeast from lee side low pressure over western Colorado across central Nebraska and into northeast South Dakota.
Even though tonight's low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than night in most locations, there will be one more cold night that could impact agriculture east of the Cascades and in portions of Northern California. We have issued a Frost Advisory at NPWMFR for expected temperatures in the low to mid 30s for areas like Alturas and Lakeview.
130 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 18Z Water Vapor Imagery/Rap analysis indicated troughing across the western CONUS with PV fields indicating several small amplitude disturbances moving around base of large scale system. could see a 20+ degree range of temps from north to south with temps in the lower 90s expected in warm sector.
124 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days.
452 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. The center of the high will push further southward towards the southeastern states through tonight. Large upper level ridge to our west will slowly move eastward through mid/late week.
258 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the forecast area, thanks to another mid/upper level disturbance rotating around a stacked high pressure system to our east.
The forecast area resides under northerly flow aloft this morning between mid and upper-level ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley and mid and upper-level troughing off the East Coast. Low- level flow is southeasterly to easterly around low-level ridging centered along the Appalachians. Dew points are expected to mix down into the low to mid 60s for most areas by afternoon, but considerable sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the low 90s in most areas. 92 A ridge of high pressure aloft will help to suppress shower and thunderstorm development through most of the upcoming week.
1125 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the wrn conus with main low over swrn MT. Additional shra/tsra development expected this aftn as atmos destabilizes and more energy aloft rotates around the main upper low over MT.
Most of the models were moving the trough axis into our southeastern counties by late this afternoon, but the 06Z NAM that has started coming in and some of the short range models push the trough axis further southeast out of our CWA.
240 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure will remain anchored across the maritimes through mid week.
Pacific upper ridge will gradually build over NorCal through the week.
High pressure blankets the Eastern United States, part of a broad and discontinuous subtropical ridge across the Western Atlantic. It appears the vorticity spoke, in combination with the position of the high, has driven some continental air southward into the Florida peninsula. The western-most node of the subtropical ridge is centered near the Mississippi River valley.
Temperatures tonight should be slightly warmer than yesterday with most locations reaching the lower 90s, particularly since we are (for once) not starting the day off with stratus. Well mixed low levels due to prevailing winds 10-15kt and warmer air mass aloft will tend to keep overnight lows tonight above normal, with locations east in the low 70s.
/issued 335 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016/ An upper ridge centered over the SE US stretches westward into NM while an upper trough extends from the Canadian border down across the Intermountain West to Mexico. The trough will slowly move east and eventually flatten out the ridge by late in the week.
401 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses.
Otherwise ll ridging will support a cool day as northerly flow is reinforced behind the impulse.
145 PM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California will keep a deep marine layer in place through Tuesday.
In the upper levels, 12Z 500mb analysis shows upper level high placed across the Southern Mississippi River Valley and ridging extending NE into NY state. They all depict the southeast ridge breaking down as the faster mid level flow presses in from the north.
146 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
Early this morning a broad mid-level ridge remained anchored across the eastern U. with a deep mid-level trough centered just west of the Rockies. Short-range models had been trying to suggest that some isolated precipitation may develop across far northern KS early this morning with the low-level jet and some weak isentropic lift present, however the latest runs have been trending away from this solution, likely due to the amount of dry air that would need to be overcome. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for the Labor Day holiday as the region remains wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Tuesday continues to look precip-free and warm with highs mainly in the low 90s given 850 hPa temps 20-24 degrees with plenty of sun and gusty south winds.
127 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Upper level ridge continues overhead and keeps the area mostly dry for the next few days.
Upper level analysis places trough through the northern Rockies into the Great Basin with various short waves lifting ahead of it. Chances for showers/thunderstorms start to increase late Tuesday night as the main trough axis shifts towards the area.
156 PM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 A warming trend is expected through the middle of the week as a deep trough of low pressure weakens and moves east.
335 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain across our region through the middle of the week. Tonight will be mostly clear across the north and clear to partly cloudy Downeast as a strong upper ridge remains across the area. Otherwise, Tuesday will be warm and dry with ridging remaining across the area.
A slight warming trend will begin over the region today as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific.
An upper level high, centered over the Mississippi Valley south of Memphis, will essentially remain in place through Tuesday with our area on its western periphery. Warm and fairly humid conditions will continue, with lows tonight in the lower 70s and highs Tuesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
We will need to look at the timing and strength of the cold front in the morning to see if we need to add more stratus/fog and resultant impact on temperatures. Deep southwest flow, the dry airmass, and warm advection aloft should result in temps a couple degrees warmer than those observed yesterday. A weak northerly surge will aid further development early this morning before daytime heating aids mixing and erosion of the low clouds/fog.
311 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure will continue to support mainly dry and increasingly humid conditions through midweek.
Upper trough will remain over the West, keeping things unsettled over Montana this period. Remnants of the opening upper low will keep clouds hanging around the area tonight.
Big upper level ridge still expected to keep us high and dry as we head into mid-week and, for many areas, into late-week as well.
304 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow associated with a low pressure system moving into the western states will bring dry weather and breezy winds through Tuesday.
/issued 637 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016/ A complex pattern exists over the eastern CONUS this morning with a cut-0ff cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic states merging with Post- Tropical Cyclone Hermine. A sharp mid/upper-level ridge has build on the western flank of this storm, extending north across the eastern Great Lakes. As Hermine moves slowly east, we'll see the subtropical ridge expand over the Mid-South. Coverage should remain limited, and like yesterday, shouldn't prevent temperatures from warming into the lower 90s. The combination of the dry air to the east and the large-scale subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge should limit rain chances a bit as we move into the mid-week period.
329 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over the central U. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. Tuesday will be very similar to today as the upper level high remains over the region. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and heat index values in the middle to upper 90s can be expected.
This area should be near the juxtaposition, with perhaps moderately unstable airmass ahead of the surface cold front.
Aloft, an upper level ridge is building across the lower Mississippi Valley, with its axis nosed sharply into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. This upper level ridge will continue to build in across eastern Kentucky through the short term, with heights and consequently temperatures increasing across the area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys, to the mid 60s on the ridges.
South to southwest surface winds will persist, and rather strong at times as lee trough remains in place. Low level jet returns in similar strength and orientation tonight but only slightly warmer parcels coming in for lesser isentropic upglide along the jet axis as and expect only some cirrus. Another warm and breezy day then for Tuesday with weak cold front remaining to the north and any afternoon convection along it moving northeast. Have highs a touch warmer than today based on 850mb trends.
Ridge of high pressure that provided cool/dry weather to central Illinois over the past couple of days has shifted eastward into the Appalachians. This will help bring warmer and more humid conditions back into the area today. to the lower 70s west of I-55. Blocking pattern will remain in place across the central/eastern CONUS through mid-week, as remains of Hurricane Hermine meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
104 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and a warming trend through midweek. High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies through tonight. As the 500 mb ridge axis continues its slow march south, Tuesday will again feature plenty of sunshine and even warmer temperatures as 850 mb temps nudge upward. A few high clouds may spill over the ridge starting during the afternoon and continuing during the night.
KABI should be near the northern edge of the low cloud field, where a temporary MVFR ceiling is included. /issued 346 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016/ (labor Day and Tonight) The forecast area will be on the western periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS through tonight. The bulk of the low to mid-level gulf moisture flowing into southeast and East Texas around the upper high should not dramatically affect our forecast area today but may increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms over our southeastern counties this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the CWA should see highs in the lower 90s. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 70s.
Gusty south winds set up this afternoon and usher in warmer temps and higher dewpoints. Despite afternoon cumulus clouds, high temps will get into the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016/ Although short-term models indicate a nearly saturated layer moving into western Oklahoma very soon, the low clouds over the Texas panhandle have dissipated much more quickly than was the case the last several days.
A frontal system will bring a good chance for light rain to the lowlands starting as late as overnight tonight and continuing on through Tuesday night.
Will keep isolated pops for our west-central parts Tuesday night but much better potential for pcpn will be east of sfc trof, i.