Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
711 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Mild and unsettled weather continues before dry conditions return tonight and Thursday under high pressure. Patchy fog, drizzle, and light rain will continue initially this morning in weak isentropic lift/southwest flow until a cold frontal passage this afternoon cuts off precipitation. Still, clouds will linger all day as the low levels remain saturated. High pressure will support a brief bout of dry weather tonight and through the daylight hours on Thursday. Precipitation chances will return to the region once again late Thursday as stronger low pressure lifts out of the central Plains towards the Great Lakes.
(Today through Thursday) An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quasi-stationary during the period, while an upper level disturbance approaches the Four Corners region today, then approaches the Central Plains Thursday (deterministic output. ) As evident by the proximity of the foregoing upper level ridge, above normal temperatures will persist over the CWA during the period.
Temperatures will be cooler where there is snow on the ground of course, ranging from around 5 to 23 degrees. Tonight will be warmer with lows around zero, and wind chills just below zero through Thursday morning. Quasi-zonal flow Thursday will produce slightly warmer temperatures.
436 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Today) Shallow cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area with exception of the higher terrain of far southeast OK. The moist plume is expected to gradually shift north today as upper trough axis moves into the southwest CONUS and a southern stream wave lifts northeast.
Mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. At the surface, a trough across central Mexico extending into west Texas will interact with a high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico.
Light winds are certain all day with no gusts courtesy the high pressure ridging.
A storm system moving through northern Arizona today will bring cooler temperatures, along with rain and mountain snow showers mainly north of I-40.
530 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 [Through 12Z Thursday] Dense fog and lowered ceilings is expected to lift from affected sites by midmorning with high pressure bringing VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Initially foggy conditions are expected to lift by midmorning today with the high pressure axis settling across the region today resulting in dry weather, mild winds, and partly cloudy skies. High temperatures for today will reach up into the lower 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coastline.
These are temperatures typical of October, and in fact the low temperature for the City of Houston was higher than what normal high temperature is for the day. This near record heat will persist through the short term as high pressure over the central Gulf brings a warm, moist southerly flow into the region.
420 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2022 Most areas staying clear this morning with high pressure in the region. Models have been slowly nudging the track of the low further north each run, but have kept the system weak as it races past tonight. Thursday will be similar to today as the trough sweeps to the east. Upper level flow will be from the southwest with a trough along the west coast.
A 5900 meter upper high over the northern Gulf of Mexico will be the primary player for producing much above normal temperatures and suppressing rain chances. A cold front currently over northwest Tennessee will manage to push southeast today and reach northwest Alabama later today before stalling. The activity will stay mainly north of I-20, due to the presence of the upper high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The stalled out cold front will push back northward tonight as a short wave trof develops over the Midwest states. This will advance the upper high northward Thursday and push deeper moisture north of Alabama, with minimal rain chances across the far northern counties.
255 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2022 The main synoptic feature which we will be monitoring is the closed low now over Central California. For much of the daylight hours, Colorado will be under weak ridging ahead of the low with a moderate southwest flow pattern. Moisture will increase again in the mountains ahead of the low this afternoon under an increasing moist southwest flow. By later tonight with trof passage, subsidence will kick in before daybreak with increasing westerly flow aloft and gusty winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes. A weak negative tilted trough arrives which will bring a bit of lingering moisture in the mountains and a chance of snow showers for parts of the plains near the Cheyenne Ridge early Thursday morning. This makes sense given the ridge pattern positioning itself after the trough exits.
608 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. A weak low pressure system is slowly progressing east across the area early this morning. With the low overhead, weak flow and low level saturation has supported low stratus and some mist/fog across the area. Drier air moves in with the northerly flow helping to slowly improve visibilities and lift the low stratus through the day. High pressure briefly nudges in from the north overnight, but pesky low level moisture still persists.
212 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2022 Lingering light snow and flurries over parts of NE Montana early this morning will continue to diminish as upper trough moves to the east. Arctic high pressure has brought bitter cold temperatures and wind chills to most of the region this morning. The high will move to the east today and NW flow aloft will turn zonal. This will bring warmer air into the forecast area although low level inversions and fresh snow cover will limit the warming especially in valleys.
A closed low over southern NV and the jet stream to the north leaves the forecast area under or very close to a col area, where conditions are fairly stagnant. This low level moisture could potentially drop some snow, but it would very light accumulation, certainly less than half an inch, and likely a quarter inch or less. The southern closed low is slow to move, finally getting kicked out by the next incoming wave late tonight or during the day Thu. Snowfall amounts from this storm are not heavy, despite the temperatures mainly staying below to around freezing even on Fri afternoon. The Fri trough and associated cold front is the first in a series that continues into the medium range.
As a result, no significant rain is expected while high pressure continues to dominates the pattern today, but patchy fog and low clouds will be possible again tonight. Daytime highs are forecast to reach the lower 80s areawide. Minimal fire weather concerns through the forecast period as light flow continues with high pressure dominating the pattern.
445 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2022 The main synoptic feature which we will be monitoring is the closed low now over Central California. For much of the daylight hours, Colorado will be under weak ridging ahead of the low with a moderate southwest flow pattern. Moisture will increase again in the mountains ahead of the low this afternoon under an increasing moist southwest flow. By later tonight with trof passage, subsidence will kick in before daybreak with increasing westerly flow aloft and gusty winds over the higher mountains and exposed east slopes. A weak negative tilted trough arrives which will bring a bit of lingering moisture in the mountains and a chance of snow showers for parts of the plains near the Cheyenne Ridge early Thursday morning. This makes sense given the ridge pattern positioning itself after the trough exits.
606 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper low over the CA/NV border this morning will wobble into UT by this evening then lift into WY by Thursday morning. On Thursday this low will cross the Rockies and move onto the plains as the next upper low takes up position along the West Coast. While all this is happening a ridge over the Gulf extends into S TX. With the approach of the upper trough have SW flow aloft across the region. Early this morning have had showers across the Lower Trans Pecos and Srn Permian Basin with more expected today.
Highs will be in the mid 70s for coastal communities, due to the proximity to the relatively cooler waters.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper low over the CA/NV border this morning will wobble into UT by this evening then lift into WY by Thursday morning. On Thursday this low will cross the Rockies and move onto the plains as the next upper low takes up position along the West Coast. While all this is happening a ridge over the Gulf extends into S TX. With the approach of the upper trough have SW flow aloft across the region. Early this morning have had showers across the Lower Trans Pecos and Srn Permian Basin with more expected today.
431 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. A weak low pressure system is slowly progressing east across the area early this morning. With the low overhead, weak flow and low level saturation has supported low stratus and some mist/fog across the area. Drier air moves in with the northerly flow helping to slowly improve visibilities and lift the low stratus through the day. High pressure briefly nudges in from the north overnight, but pesky low level moisture still persists.
(Today) Shallow cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area with exception of the higher terrain of far southeast OK. The moist plume is expected to gradually shift north today as upper trough axis moves into the southwest CONUS and a southern stream wave lifts northeast.
Skies have cleared out across most of interior NorCal as the low has moved southeast of the area. Clouds will already be increasing tonight and this should help to keep things a bit warmer but still chilly, but will also limit fog potential.
Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery showed the upper low centered over southern Nevada. This low is expected to open into a trough and start moving east quicker. As the trough moves east, upper-level support is expected to increase. The low will start to lift northeast this evening, resulting in decreased upper support and precipitation to start to decrease from west to east. As of now the area that has the highest chance of fog will be east of the Caprock escarpment; however, some fog may develop on the Caprock prior to sunrise. Skies will clear through the morning as the upper high pushes to the northeast into the Plains. Additionally, a lee cyclone will move across the central Plains, resulting in downslope winds over the region.
The mean-layer ridge centered to the west of Cuba remains in control of the weather across the Florida Keys. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising heights at all SGLs, with the 700-mb ridge reflection centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The lowest scans from KAMX detects isolated sprinkles within the stratocumulus cells sliding southwest into the Upper Keys. The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and near nil rain chances. A ridge over the western Atlantic will build westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, bringing freshening northeast to east breezes to the Keys coastal waters. The high will weaken gradually across the northern Gulf late this week, with northeast breezes slackening into the weekend.
Low pressure will develop later today in the lee of the Rockies as an upper level disturbance in fast west/southwesterly flow aloft crosses the mountains, and this low will ride east/northeasterly along a fairly well sloped thermal gradient that stretches into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys at this time. The highest chances for rain will be in the south, but most areas should see at least a very light rainfall tomorrow morning into early afternoon.
1018 AM PST Wed Dec 7 2022 Fog and low clouds with areas of freezing drizzle and flurries will impact the Inland Northwest valleys through this morning.
Cooler temperatures on Thursday will warm slowly through the weekend.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be overhead through Tonight, as a southeastward moving cold front moves into the Carolinas.
1019 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. The clouds will keep temperatures from rising too much with afternoon temperatures generally ranging from upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the far southeast. High pressure briefly nudges in from the north overnight, but pesky low level moisture still persists.
234 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 Warmer temperatures return to the region, while wind chills depart. However, high pressure to the northeast will move out of the region tonight and the pressure gradient behind it will increase our winds out of the south, bringing in some warm air advection. No wind chill is expected with the higher temps and lighter winds.
Temperatures will gradually rise into the low 50s for the northern half of the CWA to low 60s for the southern half.
Dry conditions prevail today as a weak upper ridge builds in from the west.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon with southwest surface flow continuing through much of the day, however, impacts of cloud cover (expected to clear west to east, but how fast?) will be a challenge. A front will enter northwest Oklahoma during the day tomorrow (models still show decent variations in timing) with cooler air lagging behind.
129 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 High pressure brings dry conditions tonight and Thursday, with temperatures cooling closer to normal.
As a result, we should reach at least the lower 80s across the far south with a chance to reach into the mid 80s. Rain chances should gradually decrease with time as the front lifts northward as a warm front during the evening and overnight tonight.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper trough is centered over Nevada and will move over the Central Plains on Thursday.
An upper low over the Sierra Nevada will open up this afternoon and then lift northeastward across the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau overnight. Downstream from the upper low is the jet stream extending from off the Baja California coast to the Great Lakes. The bulk of the energy in the jet stream is associated with a streak located across the Midwest, but a secondary streak will lift northeastward later today ahead of the opening upper low. Lift is likely to be persistent for a good 6-9 hours before some weakening early evening, but that should be followed by another increase, albeit weaker, ahead of the upper trough itself. Persistent cloud cover and periodic rainfall today will limit diurnal range of temperatures and have generally favored the lower end of MOS values for today's highs.
216 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 High pressure exits tonight setting the stage for the main forecast challenge of the short term. An upper level low will move through NE Thursday afternoon and evening providing additional energy. With the fresh snow across the north and clear skies, leaned toward the lower side of guidance for temperatures tonight.
400 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 An area of light to occasionally moderate snow continues to sweep eastward through the area, now generally east of M95, with a passing cold front.
1257 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. The clouds will keep temperatures from rising too much with afternoon temperatures generally ranging from upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the far southeast. High pressure briefly nudges in from the north overnight, but pesky low level moisture still persists.
A compact cut off low is over Nevada, drifting ENE just south of weak upper ridging. This low will phase back into the main flow tonight into Thursday, crossing Nebraska. The upper low will open up and cross Nebraska tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Aloft, upper level ridge is expected to remain in place through the next few days. During the weekend, dry conditions should prevail, but the ridging aloft begins to break down, as a trough moves through the Northeast. As a result, probably by mid week, we could have a change in the dry pattern allowing a chance for showers as the possible stronger cold front make its way south.
Low- level high pressure is draped across the Atlantic seaboard with the ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula and into the GOMEX. High pressure aloft continues to remain stationary off the west coast of Florida. Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with high temperatures expected to be in the lower 80s. Slightly cooler temperatures along the Volusia coast this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s. High pressure will persist across the Florida peninsula, with mostly dry conditions expected today. Mostly sunny skies across the area today, allowing temperatures to reach the low 80s once again. Lows along the coast south of the Cape will be a little warmer overnight in the mid 60s, as some partly cloudy skies could slightly limit cooling.
High pressure has settled in across the area, keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 80's for most locations.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday allowing for an moderate northeast wind flow over South Florida keeping the weather dry over most areas. However, there is a low level trough that is moving through South Florida this afternoon and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This trough will allow for a few showers to develop over the Atlantic waters and move southwest into the east coast metro areas before dissipating this afternoon. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 80s, except around 80 east coast metro areas.
Clouds will begin to increases tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough. This will keep things a bit warmer tonight and should limit fog potential overall but some patchy fog will still be possible mainly in southern areas where clouds will be slower to build in. The upper level trough and cold front push into the region later Thursday with the trough axis pushing over NorCal Thursday night. Models have the trough a bit further south today but better forcing will still be over northern areas and that is where we can expected the highest QPF with this system. Generally looking at 6-12" from about I-80 north with some locally higher amounts on the higher peaks. Did extended the Winter Weather Advisory south to just south of I-80 to account for the southern shift in the low track.
646 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Drier air is moving in with high pressure.
NAEFS 500mb mean geopotential heights across SE Texas remain above the 99th percentile for this time of year with the strength of the midlevel ridge expected to peak around 592 dam.
Timing: Freezing rain/drizzle will begin between 4-7 AM for areas along and south of a line from Lexington to Kearney to Hebron, NE. Have fairly decent confidence (approximately 70-90%) that temps along and north of I-80 will not reach above freezing. Honestly feel this evolution is possible and thus while my actual forecast has warmer temps further north, I am more pessimistic about that actually occurring thus more of the area will see ice and travel impacts.
701 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 An area of light to occasionally moderate snow continues to sweep eastward through the area, now generally east of M95, with a passing cold front.
643 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Drier air is moving in with high pressure.
Isolated showers continue over the waters and along the Treasure Coast this evening, associated with a weak inverted trough. Otherwise, it will remain dry overnight, with skies partly cloudy to mostly clear, and lows in the low-mid 60s. Weak inverted trough across the waters will produce N/NE winds toward nearshore Brevard and the coastal waters of Volusia County, and winds out of the E/NE offshore of Brevard County and across the Treasure Coast waters. (00Z TAFS) Isolated showers and greater cloud cover associated with a weak inverted trough along the Treasure Coast, will continue the potential for tempo MVFR conditions into tonight through Thursday morning from KVRB-KSUA.
Patches of freezing fog remain across northeast Nevada with fog redevelopment possible tonight.
A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to be over the Northern Rockies tonight into Thursday causing fairly dry conditions. This ridge will keep stratus and/or fog over northwest Montana while the remainder of the region should have mostly clear conditions.
High pressure exits tonight setting the stage for the main forecast challenge of the short term. An upper level low will move through NE Thursday afternoon and evening providing additional energy. With the fresh snow across the north and clear skies, leaned toward the lower side of guidance for temperatures tonight.
432 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Drier air is moving in with high pressure.
Precipitation will spread across Northwest California tonight, with beneficial rainfall occurring across the lower elevations, and snow accumulating over the mountains.
Warmer temperatures return to the region, while wind chills depart. However, high pressure to the northeast will move out of the region tonight and the pressure gradient behind it will increase our winds out of the south, bringing in some warm air advection. No wind chill is expected with the higher temps and lighter winds.
629 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be overhead through Tonight, as a southeastward moving cold front moves into the Carolinas.
614 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday allowing for an moderate northeast wind flow over South Florida keeping the weather dry over most areas. However, there is a low level trough that is moving through South Florida this afternoon and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This trough will allow for a few showers to develop over the Atlantic waters and move southwest into the east coast metro areas before dissipating this afternoon. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 80s, except around 80 east coast metro areas.
522 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper trough is centered over Nevada and will move over the Central Plains on Thursday.
526 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 Warmer temperatures return to the region, while wind chills depart. However, high pressure to the northeast will move out of the region tonight and the pressure gradient behind it will increase our winds out of the south, bringing in some warm air advection. No wind chill is expected with the higher temps and lighter winds.
1020 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Drier air is moving in with high pressure.
(Through Thursday) A warm, moist airmass remains entrenched across our area as a stout upper-level ridge holds over the southeast US. Clouds and fog will slowly erode during the morning, but once the sun breaks out, temperatures will warm quickly with highs in the lower 80s.
1033 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 High pressure will nose southeast from the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday.
Another unseasonably warm day is expected this afternoon with another record high forecast at Tallahassee in the lower 80s.
1147 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper trough is centered over Nevada and will move over the Central Plains on Thursday.
High pressure will build over the region tonight allowing decent radiational cooling with lows falling into the low 20s over central KS while far southeast KS holds onto some 30s.