Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FURTHER SOUTH. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC WINDS LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS CAUSED SEVERAL DRY DAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLIDE BACK TO THE WEST INTO MEXICO WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR FROM THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AZ-NM TOMORROW NIGHT. DRY AIR AND SOME RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY ISOLATED TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SW FLOW ALF AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH AND WEST AFT 11/15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS.
807 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE SUPPLIED BY A 70 KT JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES MADE STEEPER BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM POINTS TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER 7H TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 00Z ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 925MB OVER THIS AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK 700MB TROUGH DRIFTING SEWD FROM SOUTHERN VA. WHILE THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHORTLY. THE VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH NC AS HEIGHTS STEADILY RISE WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OFF THE SE COAST. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. -GIH GRADUAL RETROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN EACH DAY.
1023 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.
WITH THE EVENING STARTING WARMER AND AT LEASE A LITTLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 830 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MAINTAINING HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING. AS WEAK TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
719 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHER PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY IN THE LOW 70S. EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A SECOND FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO LIFT NWD ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE FROM TUE/WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE LCL AIRMASS WHILE BLOCKING OUT ANY MID LVL VORTICITY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE TONIGHT.
948 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA CIRCULATING OVER EASTERN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS STILL WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND LAS VEGAS. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BEHIND THE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT IN THE TRANSITION SEASON WHEN A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
921 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
834 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROF'S PASSAGE AND A GENERAL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
A dryline/prefrontal trough was positioned across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma with a mid level speed max spreading east toward the area. The storms may accelerate eastward later this evening as the upper trough swings eastward and the surface front pushes east. A slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area on Friday behind the cold front currently pushing across the region. Highs Friday will warm into the lower to middle 60s which are right at normal for early November.
The second vort max was located near the OK/TX panhandles at 19z and will continue lifting northeastward tonight, providing upper level support for convective development near the aforementioned cold front. The cold front should have cleared all but the extreme southeastern CWA by 12z Friday.
THIS SHRTWV AND MAINWAVE WITH COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT THE SAME TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MARGINAL RISK AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE EVENT OCCURRING.
LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
1256 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOSING GRIP TODAY.
This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear the CWA line in the southwest. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight, winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures.
1250 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
1029 AM PST THU NOV 5 2015 A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area Thursday resulting in the possibility of light snow accumulations mainly over the higher terrain of the Panhandle. A weak low pressure reflection is showing up in east central Washington, and subtle warm advection ahead of this reflection is enhancing the precipitation band.
323 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION IS COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THRU OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE REPLACED WITH POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE. WE REMAIN IN A TROUGHY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING THRU THE FLOW BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN. SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE/SW THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA.
RAISED THE HIGHS WHERE WE HAD THE MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUN. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO PHASE WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEPS SOME SHOWERS AT KPDT AND KALW THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE OREGON SITES ON FRIDAY.
251 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR GUSTY WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO RELAX. AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COMMON FOR THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE LUBBOCK MAY JUST BARELY ESCAPE THE FREEZING MARK THIS TIME. THE DAY WILL BE MUCH CALMER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WE PREPARE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. COOL DAYS AND MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE BY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
307 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
1119 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD. MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR BEHIND. THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO RAPIDLY CUT OFF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM OUR MOISTURE FETCH. THEREFORE THE HIGHS ARE FOLLOWING SUIT WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IS ALL.
1118 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 /18Z TAFS/ Line of showers and storms may clip the Abilene (KABI) terminal early in the period, with more storms developing along the cold front farther south across the southern and eastern terminals during the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances quickly shift into our southeastern counties, as the upper trough axis moves farther east.
THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BEING REPLACED BY A BKN LAYER THAT SHOULD HOVER AROUND 030/035 FEET. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AND GRADUALLY STALL OUT IN THE VICILITY OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 10Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAKENING FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR.
This area will move out of the area by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening. SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon hours.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A COOLER. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL NEWD FROM MN TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD TO NEAR AN ALPENA MI TO INDIANAPOLIS IN LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
Broad trough with embedded vortmaxes now crossing the Plains states. These features will shift east northeastward in the short term, with the cold front forecast to cross our region Friday morning, perhaps lingering a little in our southeast into early Friday afternoon. Expect weakening of the line as the low-level jet shifts east of the region during the morning.
339 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTN WITH A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG IT.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPARENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM SHEARS AWAY FROM THE LOWER LEVEL PORTIONS OF IT. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS.
Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE STATE BRINGING DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND SNOWY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AZ IS QUICKLY HEADING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH LITTLE OTHER IMPACT. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 3000-5500 FOOT RANGE THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS THAT SAW A LOT OF MELTING SNOW TODAY.
1122 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 914 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE IS IN PLACE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL THAT THE LOW CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
There is a small chance of showers streaming east northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a larger-scale trough approaches the area.
1255 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOSING GRIP TODAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY. COOLER. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
226 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
311 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus today is on the storms that are bubbling up along and just ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from southeast Nebraska southwest into central Kansas this afternoon, near Manhattan Kansas. The trough across the Western CONUS has begun to move out into the Plains as bits of the trough begin to lift northeast. This has helped push the cold front onto the doorstep of our forecast area by early afternoon. temperatures will be a bit cooler.
At the surface, weak cold front extends from near an Abilene to San Angelo line at 21Z (3 PM). Warmer temperatures aloft than expected helped cap the area and keep the rain chances down this afternoon. Cold front is barely moving southeast at this point, and this had created very little convergence as well. Still relatively warm again tomorrow afternoon, although a colder air mass will settle across the area during the day and keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees colder than they ended up today, with highs in the low to mid 70s. (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper trough axis will extend from the four corners area northeast into the central Plains late Friday as a cold front pushes south ahead of the upper trough through the forecast area Friday night.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES IS MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY AREAS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROFFING LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA. INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CRP CWA. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD KICK FARTHER SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A H5 TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STARTS TO WRAP UP.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
MOUNTAINS COMING INTO A LITTLE BREAK BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION TO HELP BRING BACK A SECOND. HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MENTIONED ANOTHER 1-4 INCHES ON TOP OF LATE TONIGHTS SNOWFALL. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A COOLER. SUNSHINE SELF SABOTAGE WITH TALL CU OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS NOW. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG/DZ ESP ON THE HIGHER ELEVS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK.
BUT AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
210 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING TO THE WEST. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.
1032 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT HIGHS AND WILL FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE.
1133 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. 130KT JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION LIFTING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CUSTER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS FINALLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AS COOLER AIR FILTERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US. BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
250 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
Additional showers and thunderstorms developing over central and southwest Oklahoma will continue to track toward the northeast, initially affecting northeast Oklahoma, and as the day progresses shift southward as the upper level trough shifts eastward into the area. Cooler air behind pacific front moves in for Friday.
/ISSUED 1118 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ /18Z TAFS/ Line of showers and storms may clip the Abilene (KABI) terminal early in the period, with more storms developing along the cold front farther south across the southern and eastern terminals during the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances quickly shift into our southeastern counties, as the upper trough axis moves farther east.
213 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Upper trough over AZ/NM this morning lifting quickly NE today. A secondary trough swings down across the 4 Corners region Friday. After that high pressure builds in from the west bringing mild wx to the region. The upper trough has pushed a Pacific front through the region today with a brisk west wind in its wake. By this afternoon the wind was pushing the low level moisture from the region. will leave the High Wind Warning in effect until 00Z.
THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW.
326 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART THE REGION.
TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KSPS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING CONDITIONS NOW OVER W OK WILL SPREAD E BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN NW OVERNIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP A BIT MORE TO IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY.
SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP A BIT MORE TO IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY.
207 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN AREAS AT 1 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO KTYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE LOW LEVEL LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE AT KCHA/KTYS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.