Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 300 MB EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN EASTERN NEVADA AND ANOTHER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOLIDLY EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY THE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FLOW TO ORGANIZE JUST ENOUGH FOR BETTER STORM STRUCTURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE. MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA. STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW WHICH WILL MAKE IT A SLOW PROCESS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COULD ALSO LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 751 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
848 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING AROUND NW MN AT 19Z WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MORE PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVELS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
815 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST OF THE RIDGES. WIND SHIFT HAS REACHED THE RIDGES AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF NICELY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. SETTING UP A BROAD TROF OVER THE AREA THAT WILL INCLUDE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES CYCLING THROUGH. WITH THE BROAD TROF OVERHEAD. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO FULL TRANSITION INTO TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR REGION SITS IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS LAYER TEMPERATURES FALL PROGRESSIVELY AS TROUGHING BECOMES MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. BOTH LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND THE FREEZING LEVEL START TO FALL.
753 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER S CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO NW ND. WEAK ENERGY SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO W CANADA. GOING FORECAST HAD POPS RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. THE SHORT TERM IS DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST. TOMORROW WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS CREATING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
High pressure extended from Montana southeast into Oklahoma at 20Z. The low level jet veers later tonight into Tuesday morning across southern Kansas into southern Missouri with moisture axis extending east-west.
615 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 128 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ DEEP CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT TO OUR SE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN NWRN GA WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING A BIT ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CU/SC BENEATH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL MEANDER INLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE MICHIGAN THUMB. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE QUITE COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE STILL RELATIVELY STRONG WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COOLER.
FOR TUESDAY LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS /18Z-00Z/ STILL SHOWING AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN.
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 71 48 74 / 20 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 67 45 72 / 20 0 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 45 67 47 72 / 20 0 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 64 41 69 / 30 10 20 30.
COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. WE DID HAVE SOME STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY WHERE THE PREFRONTAL TROF WAS LOCATED. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS PREVIOUS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MUCH NEEDED AND DESERVED DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF SE GA MAY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A WIDER RANGE OF POSSIBLE TEMPS THAN USUAL WITH THE LATEST 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. WHILE THE OLDER 12Z NAM/ECMWF WILL SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN HAVE COOLED NEAR TO BELOW THE FREEZING PINT NOW. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WED AND THU.
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON TUESDAY.
827 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
930 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST OF THE RIDGES. WIND SHIFT HAS REACHED THE RIDGES AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF NICELY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. SETTING UP A BROAD TROF OVER THE AREA THAT WILL INCLUDE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES CYCLING THROUGH. WITH THE BROAD TROF OVERHEAD. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO FULL TRANSITION INTO TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR REGION SITS IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS LAYER TEMPERATURES FALL PROGRESSIVELY AS TROUGHING BECOMES MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. BOTH LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND THE FREEZING LEVEL START TO FALL.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT AREA TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THEN TURN MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
LARGE SPIRALING SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MOISTURE BLOWING COLD AIR THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING LEVEL HAVE STEADILY BEEN LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF TO OCCASIONAL SPITS INTO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. FCST UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AS THE GFS/GEFS/GEM MAINTAIN TROUGHING INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A RIDGE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. AS THIS TROUGH DRIFTS BY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CAUSING ALL THIS TROUBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWFA.
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 702 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG WILL BE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE THETA E RIDGE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES.
1000 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT EXITING EAST. AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE MICHIGAN THUMB. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE QUITE COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE STILL RELATIVELY STRONG WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COOLER.
1247 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST OF THE RIDGES. WIND SHIFT HAS REACHED THE RIDGES AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF NICELY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. SETTING UP A BROAD TROF OVER THE AREA THAT WILL INCLUDE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES CYCLING THROUGH. WITH THE BROAD TROF OVERHEAD. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO FULL TRANSITION INTO TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR REGION SITS IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS LAYER TEMPERATURES FALL PROGRESSIVELY AS TROUGHING BECOMES MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. BOTH LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND THE FREEZING LEVEL START TO FALL.
733 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES BY THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
1227 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON TUESDAY.
1037 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
1140 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT-TUE. DIFFERENCES CROP UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF/GEM POINT TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH - EVEN DEEPENING IT/CARVING IT OUT MORE. THE GFS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WHILE THE EC POINTS TO A RETURN TO NORMAL - AROUND 60. BUT STILL NOT SOLD ON THE RIDGING.
THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. 07 /ISSUED 128 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ DEEP CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT TO OUR SE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN NWRN GA WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING A BIT ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CU/SC BENEATH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
811 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STEADY FEED OF COOLER/DRIER AIR UNDER A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MEANDER INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
618 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT-TUE. DIFFERENCES CROP UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF/GEM POINT TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH - EVEN DEEPENING IT/CARVING IT OUT MORE. THE GFS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WHILE THE EC POINTS TO A RETURN TO NORMAL - AROUND 60. BUT STILL NOT SOLD ON THE RIDGING. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL ARE COOLING TOWARDS THE FREEZING PINT NOW AND COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH PATCHY ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS AS FREEZING CONDITIONS CHILL THOSE AREAS DOWN. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WED AND THU.
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 143 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO FORM NEAR THE RED RIVER.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
544 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015 DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH SOME AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN.
1109 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
As the lower atmosphere moistens up some low clouds may form around the Sacramento area in the morning. High pressure circulation to the north helped to push some of the earlier activity westward today. The area will drift east slightly for Tuesday while a weak low pressure circulation moves over Southern California. A trough will also deepen along the coast. The trough axis moves along the coast Tuesday night and may be able to keep some showers activity going all night in the mountains.
936 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
JUST DON'T LET YOUR GAURD DOWN FOR AREAS STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. THE COLD FRONT CAUSING ALL THIS TROUBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWFA.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. LATEST MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON TOP OF IR ANALYSIS DETAIL AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COMPOUNDING THE FEELING OF THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE LATEST AVAILABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE. 75 INCHES TROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 80 DEGREES.
1045 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED EAST OF ILN/S FA TODAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS FILTERING IN ON WEST WINDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THOUGH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE DENSE UPPER LOW ITSELF. TO ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. AND CONTINUED GRADIENT WIND AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. , AS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U. , AND A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
333 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SO THE FREEZE WATCH WILL JUST BE CONTINUED.
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ A deep upper trough is in place over the eastern CONUS. a back door cold front was sliding down over the Plains during the overnight and will push into NW AR/far NE OK this morning. before retreating later today as the deep eastern CONUS trough lifts out. A lead impulse emanating from the upper low off of the SoCal coast in the southern stream will induce some mid lvl warm adv/isentropic lift later today.
544 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 6 INCHES OR MORE ABOVE THIS LEVEL BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE HIGH PASSES IN THE SAN JUANS SO HAVE NO PLANS TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING TODAY EVOLVES INTO A HIGH OVER LOW CONFIGURATION TOMORROW. THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
349 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTS TO DIG TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROUGH THIS MRNG WITH GFS AND NAM DEPICTING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE MID LVL LOW CENTER. FOR THE RIDGES. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL END BY EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SERVING AS THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 11-14Z WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.