Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WED MORNING. THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS A PRETTY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON WED. AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS EAST IT WILL PULL A WEAK AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS PRETTY LIMITED AND IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMS. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE WARMER SHORT TERM MODEL SETS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BLEND WILL FAVOR THE WARMER MET AND ECMWF NUMBERS.
A TRANSITION TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A RAPIDLY MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
934 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH LAGGING BACK OVER FL THIS EVENING. COOL AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT ON BREEZY NE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE NE-E AND BRIEFLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT WHILE INLAND AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS TOWARDS MORNING. FAST MOVING BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE E GULF THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ADVISORY CRITERIA MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED HIGH END MVFR DECKS FORMING ALONG AN EARLY DAY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME ACROSS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/ WAS THINKING WE MIGHT BEEN TO ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS FOR SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. /ISSUED 735 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. WITH LOWERING PANHANDLE PRESSURES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT MANY TAF HUBS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ENOUGH OF A SOUTH WIND TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED OUT. AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
637 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GATHERING STRENGTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN ELEVATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SOME -FZRA DUE TO LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLIER TODAY. SFC MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETURN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUS FAR WITH SFC DEW POINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM KS SOUTH TO OK THIS AFTERNOON. BY MIDNIGHT THE LOW WILL BE NEARING KDSM WITH SHIELD OF RAIN/SCT THUNDER EXTENDING ENE. TOWARD 12Z A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
1047 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW WILL MORPH INTO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.
835 PM MDT TUE APR 5 2016 MAINLY LOCATION ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING SPEED SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN WILL REEVALUATE. CLOUD SHIELD IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. INITIAL TROF HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 842 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/ TEMPS AS OF 01Z ARE DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S AND FELL 5-9 DEGREES JUST IN THE LAST HOUR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES SO THEY WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL UNTIL REACHING THEIR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HAVE TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS BACK SLIGHTLY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOWS BEING A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID TN.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 10Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
BUT UPSTREAM OF THAT THE NOSE OF THE NEXT COLD CORE TROUGH IS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. 1032 MB LATE WINTER LIKE COLD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED THIS EVENING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO WEST VIRGINIA. WEAKER 1020-1025 RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A 1030 MB CENTER OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD. WITH A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
A LINE OF CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MOBRIDGE. WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM.
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY.
NAM PROGS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS TO SETUP FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO NEAR CHADRON WITH A LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALSO SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
GUSTY SW FLOW WILL SET UP BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY WEAK. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE, WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS.
WITH MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NM. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND ACRS CO. THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID. TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON WED. FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO.
344 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE EAST OF THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD. THAT INVERSION MIXES OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY AM FOR A RAPID JUMP IN TEMPERATURES JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE DAY. WITH 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.
WE SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH COLD FRONT ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AT PEAK HEATING.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RAIN.
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. WITH THE GFS BEING WARMER. BUT DEFINITELY LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE AVERAGE.
THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.
It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest flow.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. THE APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT WEST. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOW RH VALUES ON SUNDAY.
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AND SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE 0-2KM AGL HELICITIES ARE STRONGEST INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY WEAK FORCING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING BOTH ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WHILE RH VALUES MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH. / ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY.
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 THE CENTER OF AN ENLONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TX RESULTING IN NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
FOR TODAY, WILL SEE HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DRYING VEGETATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS, NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK, MAY MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT IN THIS REGION TOO. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE VIRGA THAN ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT HEAT WAVE. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL HIGHEST NEAR WARM FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AND ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY-ADVANCING TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTS WARM FRONT. WITH FOCUS GEARED TOWARD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT.
The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a trough moving to the West Coast.
1115 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO CENTRAL SD. WITH A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE BEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR SUMMER.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT MONTGOMERY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST AND WEAKENED JUST A BIT, ALLOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SEND A TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH IS STILL DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ANY INFLUENCE IN KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP NICELY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S IN MANY SPOTS. A FEW SHELTERED NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE THE UPPER 50S GIVEN THAT WE'VE MIXED OUT INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY AS TEMPS RISE MOSTLY TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 80S NE TO THE LOW 90S SW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH DAYTIME MIXING. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SIMILAR (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER)TO TODAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH AND MID 90S NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW- MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL. AND IN FACT WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS TO BUILD THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PATTERN AND RECENT VERIFICATION. WE EVEN REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. AND ULTIMATELY MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SOME PLACES /EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S F/.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. SUNDAY THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE ONE NEGATING FACTOR WILL BE THAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH MAY BEGIN ADVANCING INTO THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED INSOLATION FROM TODAY /AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
/ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED PAST THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE TO KEEP FROM ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OFF THE SERN LA COAST TO THE NERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED NERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR JUST AT THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST EVENING. NOT MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION RIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND IT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING SPREADING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
341 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RIDGE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PENN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
Seasonably warm weather to continue through the coming week with upper ridge to retrogrades to an axis from the northern Rockies into the southern plains.
HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER (EVEN MIDDLE?) 90S WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND MIXING SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLES 90S.
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.