Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The mid-level ridge will build east across the southern Plains during this time, with 500 mb heights rising a few dekameters over the next 24 hours. (Wed-Fri) Sunny and dry weather to continue Wed-Fri as the tenacious upper level high pressure centered over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest extends into West Central Texas.
LATE MORNING AIR TEMPS ARE NOW CLIMBING INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER 80S WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S TDS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY SE OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
955 PM PDT Sun May 17 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Water vapor imagery indicates a weak impulse just SE of our CWA rotating Nwd around the upper low off the CA coast.
WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT/MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF I-57. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
COLD FRONT TIMING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS DRY. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDY AND COOLER WITH MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION PRODUCING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH.
PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. READINGS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH. TOMORROW: A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND FAIRLY COOL 850-HPA TEMPERATURES, HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION WITH MID 60S FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS BETTER GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS MCV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND TRIGGER OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ADK A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO EACH TERMINAL BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z MONDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
826 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MAY DRIFT WEST OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.
1055 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
933 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
1010 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL WEATHER IS TRACKING ACROSS NE SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON HEADING FOR MINNESOTA BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR GETTING PULLED DOWN AND WILL HAVE SOME AREAS PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK BY MONDAY MORNING.
920 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY.
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA.
1202 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/ISSUED 414 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 995MB LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO BIG BEND OF TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO MISSOURI TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS EAST APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
916 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
Water vapor imagery at 20Z shows the closed upper low lifting northeast over the northern plains, while very weak embedded pv anomalies rotate southward over western and southern Nebraska. Otherwise the cold front currently over northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska is expected to shift southeast through the area tonight. Skies remain mostly sunny with temperatures much cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR N/NW COUNTIES AND NORTH OF I-20 THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH A THE UPPER RIDGE BEING MORE STOUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EEVNING.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S AND MLCAPE HAS EXCEEDED 1500 J/KG. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TUE NGT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. TROF DIGGING TOWARD THE CA COAST THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WED AND ACROSS OUR AREA WED NIGHT. TSRA CHCS AGAIN INCREASE ACRS NERN IN INADVOF SFC COLD FRONT MID/LATE MON AFTN AND COVER POTNL FOR NOW WITH VCTS. A MUCH MORE STABLE/DRIER VEERED FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR KSBN MON AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS AND ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS RIDGE AXIS VICINITY CAROLINA COAST NUDGES SOUTH TO NEAR 30N LATITUDE AND WEAKENS.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR-TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS COOLER AIR RUSHES SOUTH.
636 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON AND A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. THE SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE INTO WRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 ALONG AND JUST NORTH/NW OF THE LOW TRACK WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE W/SW AROUND THE LOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER N-CENTRAL CA. ON MONDAY BY 18Z SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENTIRELY END AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMES INLAND VIA CALIFORNIA AND CIRCULATES MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH NEVADA MONDAY. WETTEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE UP IN THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE LOCATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLOWLY MOVED ACROSS NW AL TODAY DUE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT. PRE FROTNAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WHEN MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BUT CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK.
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
940 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
The low clouds will break up by late Monday morning and VFR conditions will prevail during the afternoon. However, the potential for severe weather is diminished by the low confidence in thunderstorms developing. The thunderstorms will be enhanced by diffluent flow aloft, and good instability in the low levels, so severe weather will again be a possibility with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, most of this activity should remain west of our area, as storms will likely weaken after moving east off the higher terrain.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
722 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
750 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID WEEK. THEN DROP OFF THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
540 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 IN SPITE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED. AN 110 KT JET ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING IT A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. NUDGED MONDAY/S HIGHS TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGH PASSES PROBABLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH MOST SNOW MELTING ON CONTACT SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING HILITES.
1011 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ STRONG HEIGHT RISES HAVE TAKEN OVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN SO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BE THE BEST AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONALLY ACTIVE AND WET MONTH OF MAY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PROMISES TO DELIVER A SLEW OF TROUGHS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.
1053 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY MID WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE A BIT AND THERE IS SOME ENHANCED THETA-E AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS STRONGER FARTHER EAST AND THE AIR SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE EARLY MORNING/PREDAWN HOURS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
WINDS WILL ALSO SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NICE WARM UP TODAY WITH HIGHS 6 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER IN THE VALLEYS AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER SE AZ WHILE OVER CALIFORNIA THERE LIES AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 2 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD AS MOTHER NATURE CONTINUES TO KEEP LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
The low clouds will break up by late Monday morning and VFR conditions will prevail during the afternoon and evening. The low clouds will break up by late Monday morning and VFR conditions will prevail during the afternoon. However, the potential for severe weather is diminished by the low confidence in thunderstorms developing. The thunderstorms will be enhanced by diffluent flow aloft, and good instability in the low levels, so severe weather will again be a possibility with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, most of this activity should remain west of our area, as storms will likely weaken after moving east off the higher terrain.
Multiple rounds of convection are expected through tomorrow night ahead of a cold front as disturbances move through the upper level flow. Rain will diminish Monday night as the cold front finally moves through.
PATCHY FOG STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. THERE IS A LITTLE RESISTANCE TO BUOYANCY IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS WELL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
The surface cold front associated with the system will finally push through the region on Monday, veering winds to the north northwest and ushering cooler, drier air into the forecast area.
944 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING A COUPLE OF HOURS. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM MONDAY NIGHT.
744 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN IOWA. 19Z LAPS SHOWING 200-800 J/KG OVER FORECAST AREA AND AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SPC MESOSCALE 0-1KM SHEAR INDICATES ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 83 66 85 / 50 70 50 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 65 84 / 30 70 50 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 82 66 84 / 40 70 50 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 81 64 83 / 30 70 50 40.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEST RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL BE BROKEN DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A BROAD OPEN TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA ON MON AND ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE. EXPECT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF KBIL OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING SAT DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH PCPN AS SHOULD END BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS HOUR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA IS SET TO FOLLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE DESERT SW MON WITH CYCLOGENESIS RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL HEAD NE INTO OK/KS MON NIGHT. SURFACE: A PAC COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THRU THE WRN USA SAT AND WILL ARRIVE HERE SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES EMERGES INTO TX MON AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OK MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SE KS BY 12Z/TUE. SAT NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN SAT. MON-TUE: PREFER NOT TO ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE DETAILS AS THE FCST HEAVILY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS AREAS S AND E OF HASTINGS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST IMPACTS.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR MORE CLD COVER TO DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ALSO AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE. THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS ARE COMING IN A BIT COOLER VERSUS THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT THE SHORT TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS UNDER ESTIMATING THE WARMUP EXPECTED OVER THE SHORT TERM SO WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW.
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUING CIRRUS BAND STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
410 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH UTAH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO A MIX RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SAT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FREEZING RAIN INTO THE EVENING AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THE TROUGH ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST(SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY).
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT EVEN THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO CLEAR FOR A WHILE LATE THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A WARM FRONT OVR THE GRK LKS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING TRAPPED EAST OF THE MTNS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH EAST ALABAMA LAST NIGHT. BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
Impacts to valley roadways should be minimal as surface temperatures are above freezing, but refreeze is a possibility for later tonight. Gusty westerly winds are also going to impact the higher terrain creating blowing and drifting snow this evening. Temperatures remain below freezing, with roads slowly drying out during the day.
High pressure will move east of the PAH forecast area late today.
1202 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR THE IDAHO-WYOMING-UTAH TRIPLE POINT WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL START MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MIX WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE.
For tonight, high pressure will move southeast through western Kansas behind the front. Northerly winds this evening will become light and variable overnight before increasing from the south on Saturday in response to deepening low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. After this wave passes, we should see partly cloudy skies along with cooler temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s.
Upper level ridging allowed for mostly sunny skies and temperatures warmed into the 60s across much of the area. This low pressure is then forecast to move across northern portions of Oklahoma/southern Kansas and track north and east from there.
1126 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THESE ARE ENHANCING ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSNOW REPORTS AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ZERO REPORTED AT THE GARRETT COUNTY AIRPORT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOWER UNSTABLE LAYER TO GRADUALLY SHRINK TO A DEPTH THAT FAILS TO INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
1125 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 AVIATION DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST.
257 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS. KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA COOL AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND.
CIRCULATION CENTER OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROF NOW CLEARING THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTH NJ THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BEING ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED A COOLER MOS BLEND FOR LOWS. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ~ 15 DEG F ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE WARMER WEATHER.