Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although more favorable upper level dynamics will remain off to our north in the form of a +70kt jet streaming eastward across Nebraska, enough may exist across northern portions of Kansas to support a southward component to possible thunderstorm development, particularly in the vicinity of a warm front that is projected to lift slowly north across western Kansas today, reaching near the Nebraska border by late this afternoon.
309 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2015 QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB/REMAIN HIGH OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY SO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AT H5 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE IS BEING KNOCKED DOWN BY CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ALONG MEXICAN COAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WRAPPING INTO LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AND SHIFT EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
137 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
Although more favorable upper level dynamics will remain off to our north in the form of a +70kt jet streaming eastward across Nebraska, enough may exist across northern portions of Kansas to support a southward component to possible thunderstorm development, particularly in the vicinity of a warm front that is projected to lift slowly north across western Kansas today, reaching near the Nebraska border by late this afternoon. There is a small chance of thunderstorms again Saturday afternoon as the next weak upper level impulse passes and a weak cold front approaches. By this time, the warm front should be well to the north, with warmer and slightly drier air over western Kansas in advance of the front.
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN MANITOBA AND MOVG E. A SFC TROF IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MIDWEEK. ECMWF MAINTAINS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS TRACKS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS AROUND THE STANLEY/CHALLIS AREAS BECAUSE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN WILL MOVE NE INTO SRN IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WEAK TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLEARING AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CREATING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
528 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
A NOD TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION VERSION OF THE NAM-WRF MODEL WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING. THANKS IN PART TO THE OFF SHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE HOTTER TEMPS AND HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER.
203 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR A BIT MORE AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AVIATION A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A BIT.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY DEVELOPING SCT CU ABOVE KBRO AND KHRL. HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD SUBSIDENCE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. AS ADVERTISED THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYERED EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND SIT TIGHT ON SATURDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT TO HEAT AND MODELS CONCUR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES AS THE RIDGE DEEPENS IT GRIP ON THE CWA SATURDAY. DIURNAL WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE BREEZY RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE COMBINING WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER GULF WATERS.
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE ARKLATEX CONTINUES TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE. WITH THE RIDGE PROGGED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE YOLLA BOLLYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY.
THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. SQUEEZING BETWEEN THE SUMMERTIME NORTHERN GULF RIDGE AND THE HEAT LOW TO THE WEST.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE RADAR GIVES NO INDICATION OF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE RIDGES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND DRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.
WE WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES THIS WAY. CLOUD COVER AND WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IT WILL INDUCE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEAR THE MT/WY LINE WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 VFR THE REST OF THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
These clouds will be spinning off an upper low presently centered over northern Nevada as it passes through southern Idaho tonight and over Yellowstone NP tomorrow afternoon.
138 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGELY CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CENTER OF DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A WEAKER ATTENDANT RIDGE EXTENDING TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AND A WEAK SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE NOW IN PLACE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST SOME. WITH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE E CONUS.
A WET AND ACTIVE START TO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND THE GREAT LAKES SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO UTAH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A RETURN TO CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH SOME RAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH COULD LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
258 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
The PoP coverage for tonight will range from 20 to 40% with the highest chances in the western part of our area.
WE SHOULD END UP WITH A WARMER DAY THAN TODAY. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER. SO THE WARMER START TO THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT, MORE PATCHY IN NATURE.
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON.
408 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF CO & NM THROUGH NORTHERN OK TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE SLOWLY NE FROM EASTERN CO & WESTERN NEBRASKA ATOP A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U. AND WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT UNDERGOING WARM FRONTOGENESIS (THE WARM FRONT WOULD REACH I-70 LATE TONIGHT. THIS WOULD ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS ON SAT. PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION RESULTS & WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S CONTINUING TO SPREAD N ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS HEAT INDICES FROM 105-109 ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS SAT AFTERNOON & EARLY SAT EVENING.
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 Upper ridge axis over the Southern/Central Plains will begin tracking east overnight as a longwave trough over California settles into the Northern Rockies. concerns begin to rise for increasing temperatures on Saturday as well-developed thermal ridge axis in advance of an 850-hPa low settles over the lower Missouri Vly. high temps look to warm well into the lower to middle 90s across much of the area Saturday afternoon. the highest degree of uncertainty remains focused on the degree of capping. from organized supercells initially to an eventual multicell mode as the low-level jet begins to strengthen during the overnight hrs.
STILL WATCHING WAVE MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SFC TROF ACROSS ND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
131 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 Persistent upper ridge centered over East TX early today will wobble back to the west over the next several days but remain over the region. An upper low coming off CA will have little effect on the ridge and just roll over the top of it. Will continue the low pops for storms over the higher elevations this afternoon and evening.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER IN THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
112 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE RIDGES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND MOSTLY DRY. SAVE FOR A DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
A FEW WAVES ARE RIDING OVER HEAD INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEASR THE HIGHEST THREAT AT ANY TERMINAL IS TCL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
301 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH HAS BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH.
120 PM PDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
254 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT.
302 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO KDHT AND KGUY AS THEY HAVE AT KAMA. /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. HEAT CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THOSE LOCALES.
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UNDERNEATH AN UPPER JET. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN FORCING ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE UPPER JET. BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
402 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
NORTHEAST UT WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUING LONGER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BEND THE MONSOON PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
302 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOONS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE RIDGES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE RIDGES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND DRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.
122 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
258 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
358 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY. AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DIGGING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN-CANADIAN TROUGH.
1007 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO WE ARE STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL BE WITHIN SPLIT FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH MODELS SHOWING A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NW IN TO WRN CANADA. SET UP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PAC NW AND BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS. AND THE RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS BY AS MANY AS 11 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED TO BEGIN LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST.
/issued 418 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/ In the upper levels a cut off low over CA will weaken and retrograde into the Pacific as brief ridging develops over the area.
THE REGION LAY BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN NORTHWEST NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHWARD SATURDAY TAKING THE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. SAT NGT THROUGH SUN NGT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN CA MOVES NORTH AND FILLS.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH A BUILDING DRY UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW PATTERN TO SUPPORT VFR/SKC CONDITIONS BY NO LATER THAN 02/06Z ENTIRE AREA.
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S.
916 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMS TO START 2016 WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROF PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN U.
THIS IS COURTESY OF THE 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER IDAHO THIS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN AND STRONG RIDGE WON'T LAST VERY LONG PER THE LATEST MODELS.
915 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A MAINLY DRY BUT COLD LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEVADA.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT FROM OFF THE SE U. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCD MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LIFT AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
608 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SPLIT FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WHILE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT OCCUR IN TIME TO RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping into IFR range. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was included in the weather type.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER.
539 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 STATUS DECK ADVECTING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK FLOW. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL ENHANCE MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH READINGS TOWARDS THE FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTH WITH 20S REMAINING IN THE FAR NORTH. COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLIP NRN IOWA TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
633 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PRODUCED RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS PREPARES TO CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL US REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR.
418 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 In the upper levels a cut off low over CA will weaken and retrograde into the Pacific as brief ridging develops over the area.
WE WILL BE IN THE COL BETWEEN THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
BESIDES THE LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
644 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEPS SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE REGION. A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. ADVECTING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL TO THE AIR EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF RAIN CHANCES THERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR EVEN THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AMPLE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS TODAY DOWN IN THE 50S. WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE 50S.