Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The compact upper low that was responsible for the ongoing thunderstorms will continue to weaken and move eastward this morning, allowing thunderstorms to gradually exit the area by around 15Z. This afternoon, high temperatures will range from the low 90s to around 100 degrees. the latest guidance is actually a couple degrees cooler than previous forecast, which does create some uncertainty on whether we actually will reach heat advisory criteria today. That said, evaporation from last night's rain may push dewpoints a few degrees higher, which would still result in heat index values in the low 100s.
Elsewhere, quasi-zonal mid-level flow is present across the Pacific Northwest to Northern Plains with high pressure stretching across the Four Corners- Southern Plains. A weak cold front will advance southward later today, however, there is some questions with respect to its timing and far it will advance. Otherwise, thinking storms may also develop and move off the higher terrain in northeast CO and the southern Panhandle eastward over parts of southwest NEB late this afternoon-evening.
1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure surface and aloft remains over west central and southwest Florida.
Surface analysis was showing a trough just offshore the Carolina coast while there was a weak pressure pattern over the area. There was a mid/upper low closing off over southern Virginia with a trough extending southwest to across southern Miss. Mid level impulses were traversing around the upper low which were helping to produce early convection along the gulf coast which was moving east.
Little change needed to the forecast, outside of minor tweaks through the evening as mid-level ridging builds eastward. A warm ridge is expected to otherwise suppress rainfall for the start of the short term period.
An upper level trough along the east coast will continue to influence the area today while a closed upper low develops across the Carolinas later today. With the upper level trough and PW values still in excess of 2 inches, this would help to enhance convective coverage today, compared to a typical summertime day.
A low pressure system offshore will keep the flow aloft from the southwest through Wednesday.
Light wind will be generally from the south as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow will try to amplify with ridge continuing to build across the southern states, but strong waves in the energetic jet stream across the north will continue to flatten the ridge until the end of the week. In the mean time, a strong trough rotating around the northern Canada low will phase with the already enhanced jet over Ontario eventually sending a cold front through lower MI Wednesday and Wednesday night. Persistent westerly flow will continue to pump warm and moist air in from the Midwest and the strong ridge nosing up into that region.
Upper level ridge building into IL during today as 500 mb heights rise to between 592-594 dm by sunset. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s this afternoon, warmest in western CWA. High pressure is dominant in the region this morning as the next warming trend kicks in. Aloft, the deep warm air over the SW starts to shift into the Midwest as the upper ridge starts to dominate the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. With any activity moving into a ridge axis and the days warming in the midlevels all but neutralizing any lapse rate. The ECMWF is far warmer than the blended forecasts. Dewpoints remain in the mid 70s through the end of the week, resulting in 100F+ heat indices, and limiting the overnight lows to the low to mid 70s as well.
Upper level ridge over the central US will begin to drift closer to our region tomorrow, and result in temperatures being a few degrees warmer than today. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, the heat index will be in the mid to upper 90s, with the highest values along and west of I-65.
Drier conditions can be expected for the rest of Wednesday as ridging continues to build over the region.
Brusda An upper level ridge will be over the region for the next few days.
In the upper levels, our trough is weakening as well. However, a bit of energy extending from the Atlantic States trough stretches back across the southern half of Alabama. Overall, upper ridging will be building into the state from the main ridge feature centered over Oklahoma. With somewhat lower rain chances and a building ridge, we will see a warming trend with temperatures beginning today. Low-level ridging will persist through the second half of this week as the jet stream is well to our north. The GFS and ECMWF both have an upper level low being cut-off Wednesday over the Coastal Mid-Atlantic states before retrograding over the next few days.
1223 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
The 3Z Phoenix sounding indicated nearly 1000 j/kg of CAPE, and since most of the activity overnight dissipated further east, there may be enough untapped energy for storms over the lower desert Tuesday. Otherwise, the large-scale pattern will remain fairly stagnant, with the midlevel anticyclone centered near the Southern Plains, and a weak upper low over northwest Mexico.
However, a drier airmass aloft (evident on GOES 16 derived imagery) is slowly spreading northward from Deep S TX and the Lower TX Coast. Max temps today should be a few degrees warmer than Mon as H85 temps are prog to be warmer along with fewer clouds/precip.
High pressure building into the region will continue to slide precip chances to the southeast (although expect showers/thunder across the southern FA into much of the morning). Otherwise, high pressure builds into the region with thunderstorm chances sagging south of the forecast area by this afternoon.
While models have some timing and location differences concerning the actual placement of this event all operation models are leaning towards this solution; with the higher resolution models concurring that a mesoscale convective system is anticipated to develop and move across the high country in the overnight hours. As this system exits northwestern Arizona on wednesday another round of convection will fire off of the higher terrain with local storms in a favorable position to overwhelm drainages stressed from the previously days' events.
938 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
At the same time, stronger mid/upper flow will allow some moonsonal moisture and energy to spill into the high Plains for the weekend. A persistent lee trough will maintain a southerly wind component, with diurnal gusts around 25 knots at times for most terminals.
This closed low will slowly make a shift eastward toward the Atlantic coast through the short term period as heights continue to rise across Kentucky. High pressure will then be found across the remainder of the state. Temperatures are expected to continue their above-normal trend in response to this building ridge. These clear conditions will once again prompt some good ridge/valley temp differences overnight. Deeper southerly flow across central the Appalachians and points eastward interacts with the upper level energy in place, with convection potentially expanding across the high terrain and into portions of eastern KY.
The ridge to our west begins to amplify, but flow aloft locally will be zonal, and therefore, temperatures will be near normal. Winds will become more southeasterly in the afternoon as the high moves east. This flow will continue to today, then change as the ridge moves farther east.
A warm ridge is expected to otherwise suppress rainfall for the start of the short term period.
/Today through Tonight/ Thunderstorms developed along a cold front in central MN then back built into Sioux Falls area in a corridor of theta-e advection and a strengthening low level jet. The main show however will be along that cold front that will slowly sag south into Northern IA later today likely to make it as far south as the highway 20 corridor by 12Z Wednesday.
528 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Current surface map shows cold front across south central/southwest South Dakota, with high pressure building into the northern plains. High pressure shifts into the eastern Dakotas. With cooler northeast to east low level flow, highs will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday. Warm front lifts back into western South Dakota Wednesday with weak low across southwest South Dakota. Area will remain under flat upper ridge through the end of the week with above average temperatures.
729 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period due to building high pressure across the region. showers and thunderstorms possible again along the higher elevations of east Tennessee.
536 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 In general, less coverage of showers/thunderstorms can be expected today as the surface cold front pushes south into northern CO. Southern plains ridging is expected to shift east on Wednesday, likely promoting a good surge of monsoon moisture across southeast WY and western NE.
3 micron imagery currently shows significant and abnormally dry air in place over Arkansas as the region currently sits in North/Northeast flow underneath a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
An upper level ridge located to our west will build and expand eastward.
1010 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Latest RAP40 analysis shows the axis of the H100-H70 Atlc ridge axis positioned a little south of the I-4 corridor this mrng. Analysis also shows an H100-H70 short wave trof over the Big Bend/Nature Coast that has been supporting convection over the NE GOMex since daybreak. Light S/SW flow thru the H85-H30 steering lvl will not change appreciably as a deep lyr short wave trof over Deep South keeps the ridge axis in positioned south of I-4. Atlantic ridge axis positioned just south of the I-4 Corridor will maintain a light to gentle srly breeze over the lcl Atlc.
1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Upper ridge firmly in place over the central and southern plains. Slightly drier air in place and a little less cloud cover should result in afternoon max temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday across much of the region.
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Another seasonably hot and humid day is in store as high pressure at the surface and aloft become entrenched across the region. A prolonged hot spell will impact the region from mid week into the weekend as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather factor. Generally expect heat index values to range from the upper 90s to around 105 on a daily basis with the highest readings across central Missouri.
Isolated convection was occurring at 08Z within the low level jet across central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to top out in the 98 to 106 range with the higher readings across north central and northeast Kansas.
Upper air analysis last evening showed weak cyclonic flow over Texas with a trough extending from the Ohio Valley to northeastern Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf, but the pressure gradient was weak. The weak upper level trough will continue to give us low chances for showers and thunderstorms today. This trough will move away to the east Wednesday leaving rain chances only across the east.
1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Another seasonably hot and humid day is in store as high pressure at the surface and aloft become entrenched across the region. A prolonged hot spell will impact the region from mid week into the weekend as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather factor. Generally expect heat index values to range from the upper 90s to around 105 on a daily basis with the highest readings across central Missouri.
548 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure is sliding east of Arkansas and southerly winds are returning.
Low pressure over south central Canada will track east tonight and pull a cold front through the lower Missouri Valley.
Plentiful cirrus was spreading east- southeast across the central and northern Plains with strong south surface flow in response to the deep central Canadian cyclone. 12Z TOP and OUN soundings showing increasing moisture into the lower levels, so despite decent warm air advection and mixing, humidity levels have not dropped rapidly. A modified cold front pushes south through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning, and with at least some cirrus persisting aloft, lows should stay in the lower to middle 30s. Cold air advection deepens late Wednesday night behind a stronger cold front as a secondary wave rotates southeast into the Great Lakes.
528 PM MST Tue Jan 30 2018 Update: Satellite and radar imagery are showing an area of increased clouds and isolated precipitation from overrunning moisture along the cold front that stretches along the Yellowstone River Valley area. Templer Previous Discussion: Tonight the region will be on the backside of the departing low pressure system that has pushed east into the Dakotas. The cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary overnight across southern Phillips, northern Garfield, down into Prairie and Dawson counties.
835 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Low pressure will track east of Nova Scotia to Newfoundland overnight. High pressure will cross the region Wednesday.
the cold front had pushed through most of the area based on a wind shift to the NNW and cooling temperatures. A backdoor cold front will approach the area late tonight bringing a slight chance of snow to NE sections of the area.
Highs will top out in the low 40s across most of the region.
Winds will continue to subside tonight as the cold front that moved through earlier moves further to our east. Temps will be cooler (still around 5 degrees above normal) on Wednesday.
Once again, some slightly breezy conditions tonight in locations near the eastern mtns, will help to keep temps mild in these areas and the low temp forecast will be a challenge. Have decided to still lean toward the front being closer to the farther west position in the GFS, and will go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the same area (Fremont,Huerfano, western Las Animas, and the lower elevations of the Wet and Sangre de Cristo mtns), because these areas should see the gusty winds along with the low humidities.
Variable winds 3 kts or less expected this evening and overnight as high pressure settles over the region. Looking for temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight. Less further south with slightly warmer temperatures.
846 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure will build across the region through tonight, before moving to the East Coast Wednesday.
Temperatures in the 60s to low 70s on the Caprock and low to mid 70s off the Caprock this afternoon will warm further into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday as compressional warming/downslope increase via westerly breezes to the south of a cold front approaching the forecast area from the north. This front should reach our northeast counties by mid to late afternoon, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to those areas.
A cold front will then move southward across the TAF sites on Wednesday with north winds in its wake. Today, a trough advancing over the northern Rockies, helping to deamplify a weak ridge over the southwest states. At the surface, a fairly strong lee trough has developed over the Raton Mesa, and this has lead to breezy to windy conditions over the Texas and eastern Oklahoma Panhandles. Even though there is cirrus over the area, the downsloping winds are helping to increase temperatures into the low 70s for most of the area. There are even some low 80s near the lee trough axis in the higher elevations of the western Oklahoma Panhandle. A cold front will begin to advance towards the northern zones by early Wednesday morning.
The mid to upper level ridge axis from the western Gulf of Mexico through South Texas into northern Mexico will remain in place through the forecast period. Some mid and high level moisture will move through the ridge axis into South Texas especially Wednesday into Wednesday night.
High pressure over the Great Basin will weaken today. A dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will strengthen along the West Coast late in the week.
Cold front has move through the northwest portion of the state and will see some breezy conditions this evening southwest and south central, with the frontal passage, but expect this to be below advisory criteria and will not extend.
A cold front moved through the forecast area and moisture has pooled along the western slopes of the Cascades and north slopes of the Siskiyous.
900 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A broad area of high pressure at the surface will continue to build eastward across our area tonight through Wednesday morning. As a result, temperatures will drop into the lower-mid 30s inland, with patchy frost possible during the early morning hours. Light northeasterly flow will result in slightly warmer Atlantic air near the coast, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s in these areas. High pressure is expected to weaken and move offshore during the mid to late week with no headlines expected.
Looking for daytime highs to reach into the mid 40s north up to the lower 50s south. Upper pattern this period will feature a ridge along the west coast and a trough near the Great Lakes. There will also be fairly large swings in temperatures as each upper trough will have an accompanying surface cold front that allows the colder air mass to the north to move into the local area.
The high will move off the Southeast Coast Wednesday afternoon.
942 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A ridge of high pressure will pass through the area tonight and Wednesday morning.
The surface pressure gradient will be tightening up over night, as high pressure departs to the southeast of IL and a low pressure system approaches from the Plains. Evening lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with temperatures by 6 am in the low to mid 30s and climbing. A warm front is expected to lift to the northeast across Illinois Wed morning, to aid in the warm-up. South wind gusts will begin to subside from west to east Wed afternoon, as the cold front progresses to near I-72 by 6 pm, and the surface pressure gradient weakens. The cold front is expected to stall out just south of our southeast counties Wed eve, and a 500 mb vort max is expect to progress east along the front.
Slightly warmer tomorrow and tomorrow night with weak warm air and moisture advection.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Extension of large and moderating high pressure area over the southeastern United States maintaining dry and near normal conditions across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A warmer day expected Wednesday as winds turn more southerly.
A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma around or just before sunrise and continue moving southeast approaching a KOKC-KLAW line by around the end of the forecast period. Temperatures have rebounded, but still cooler than previously expected, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
931 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pres ridges from the southeast TX coast acrs southern LA into central AL. Temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 40s, although a few spots are already into the middle 30s. Decent radiational conditions should allow low temps to fall into the lower to middle 30s acrs all but lower southeast TX where temperatures are expected to bottom out around 40. Variable winds 3 kts or less expected this evening and overnight as high pressure settles over the region. Looking for temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight. Less further south with slightly warmer temperatures.
938 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Cold front and gusty NW Winds nr Roseau-Thief River Falls-Fargo line.
706 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure keeps breezy northerly winds across the area tonight, gradually becoming east-northeast on Wednesday.
611 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Gusty winds have been observed this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough over the Dakotas. The warm front attendant to the system with weak isentropic lift is generating light snow from east central MN across west central WI. We could see some light freezing drizzle with the overnight round as we lose saturation in the dendritic layer.
High pressure building across our area at the surface along with generally clear skies will result in a favorable radiational cooling setup. The upper-level pattern will be transitioning to a more zonal regime overnight, with high pressure settling in overhead at the surface.
Looking at satellite imagery, a trough, that brought some chilly weather in the previous few days, has moved off to the east, leaving the Plains with a flatter prevailing flow. Though, by the weekend, the prevailing pattern will have carved out another large trough across the CONUS, which will likely bring some precipitation through the weekend, and even colder temperatures.
627 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 VFR conditions currently at the TAF sites with high pressure across the region.
/Issued 242 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018/ A longwave trough was moving off the east coast this afternoon as high pressure was building across the southeast.
522 PM MST Tue Jan 30 2018 Decided to extend the High Wind Warning for northern Carbon and northern Albany Counties through midnight tonight. Have trimmed the High Wind warning out from much of Converse county into eastern Platte county where the strong wind threat appears to have pretty much ended. A cold front will sag south across the CWA this evening and will end the remaining high winds. A few snow showers possible mainly up north overnight into Weds as well as over the higher mtns but not much pcpn expected. Cooler across the CWA Weds will lighter winds over the plains but still gusty around the mtns.
A strong warm front was noted in the extreme eastern Plains with temperatures in the teens and 20s, with readings in the 60s to around 70 from western KS into TX. Forecast focus is on warmer temperatures and windy conditions. Tonight: Strong clipper system will push eastward to north of Lake Superior with the warm front advancing across the cwa. Wednesday: Warmer temperatures ahead of a cold front that will be pushing across the cwa.
Everything showing up on radar is virga due to dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere and will likely stay that way. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning and MVFR ceilings and some light wintry mix, mainly north of the TAF sites, is possible. forecast confidence is medium The main focus initially is on snow chances this afternoon into the early evening hours as a north to south oriented warm front pushes through Wisconsin. Trends then show this band picking up in intensity as the warm front moves into the eastern half of WI into the early evening hours. After briefly being in the warm sector on Wednesday, an initial cold front will drag through in the morning and could provide some light snow showers in central Wisconsin though converage will be more widespread further north.
1017 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight and Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a warm front will pass north of the area and may trigger some light snow over some parts of the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill. Could see a couple inches along the higher terrain in Onondaga, Cayuga, and Cortland counties. A slow moving upper-level trough approaching from the west, along with an associated surface clipper and trailing cold front, will be our main weather systems this period.
326 PM MST Tue Jan 30 2018 Tonight the region will be on the backside of the departing low pressure system that has pushed east into the Dakotas. The cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary overnight across southern Phillips, northern Garfield, down into Prairie and Dawson counties.