Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
740 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Aviation - Rain begins tonight into Monday with another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Heavy rain event across southern Lower Michigan tonight into Monday. There is some elevated instability as well along and north of the surface warm front so embedded convection is possible across the far southern zones overnight, which would enhance rainfall rates/totals.
350 AM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Brief ridging will allow for a dry but gusty day over much of the area today.
Cyclogenesis is currently underway of a low pressure center near the OK/TX panhandles, associated with a compact upper level low developing within a trough axis swinging over the central-southern Rockies. The track of this system is ever- so-slightly again nudged south, owing in part to the remnants of upper level ridging helping keep the synoptic system from moving any further north. However, temperatures are still not expected to vary today through tomorrow due to the lack of any effective temperature advection with the low pressure system remaining to the south of the WFO MPX coverage area.
Precipitation type needed some updates as most areas are currently not seeing snow mixed in given the above freezing dewpoints and lack of a heavy cooling rain. Locations in central North Dakota are most likely to be on the higher end of total liquid equivalent amounts. At the upper levels, the period begins with low pressure over the eastern Pacific off the Canadian coast.
An upper level trough will progress through the rockies into the plains. Monday, an upper level trough will move into CA forcing ridging over the plains. A weak front will move into the northeastern Permian Basin in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Therefore, temperatures are forecasted to climb into the upper 80s in the mountains and the low 90s in the plains.
Temperatures may cool off enough with the heavier pcpn for a rain/snow mix, mainly for the Mobridge area and points north. With widespread cloud cover, along with limited CCA, current obs across the CWA are in the 40s, with a few spots warmer than the previous forecast high for Sunday. Lows tonight should remain on the warmer side with temps in the 30s.
Elsewhere, VFR will prevail through the period with an increasingly southerly wind direction today into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, but gusts will stay in the 4 to 8 kt range. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 75 49 66 / 0 20 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 57 71 48 63 / 0 10 80 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 71 48 62 / 0 10 80 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 52 69 47 58 / 0 0 90 50 10.
Considerable Cloudiness with Increasing Rain Chances Through High pressure along the mid Atlc coast will slide east and allow deep moisture to lift northward across the area this afternoon and tonight along with a remnant frontal trough. Onshore (east) flow today will veer SE to S tonight as high pressure moves away from the area and remnants of an old front lift north across the waters.
425 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A cold front will come through the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning bringing with it a round of thunderstorms to the Mid South.
802 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A short wave trough tracks along the northern Gulf coast today and across the GA/FL line overnight. Atlantic high pressure will stretch over the state to the Gulf of Mexico and provide prevailing east and southeast lower level flow. In addition the short wave trough will supply some large scale ascent.
Upper trough and low along the West Coast will gradually move onshore and induce southwest flow over the region bringing increasing chances for rain and snow to the southwest mountains tonight and Monday.
Outside of the higher terrain however, most locations have remained dry as expected with this system. Short-term guidance is in excellent agreement in eradicating any lingering low-level moisture early this morning as this system works eastward into the high plains. Surface winds will begin to increase in the higher terrain of south-central Wyoming by dawn as the influence of a potent western trough spreads into the central Rockies.
156 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A warm front has set up to our north that is attached to a 998 mb low situated over the northeast corner of Kansas. A cold front trailing southward from the low promises to be our next weather- producer. The aforementioned cold front will continue to march eastward, and it is expected that a line of convection will develop just ahead of the surface boundary and enter the northwest corner of the mid state around 09Z early tomorrow morning. The cold front is coming through at the perfect time so that our severe potential is really at a nadir.
Warm and breezy day ahead of the approaching cold front which will be moving into northeast OK over the next couple of hours. Any pre- frontal storms or storms which can outpace the advancing the front will have the highest potential of more significant severe weather.
240 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Zonal flow aloft is expected through much of the period before a 500 mb ridge begins to push into the Central and Southern Plains late Monday night. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s with humid conditions persisting. Monday will be hot with highs in the low 90s east to upper 90s west. Monday night will remain humid with lows in the low to mid 70s across the region.
102 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to low level southwest flow and a low level thermal ridge just behind the dryline.
(This evening through Monday) Weak upper-level ridging persists over the area, keeping warmer and drier conditions over the area, and reducing chances of precipitation over the area through Monday.
1154 AM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A transitory ridge with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are expected today. The exception will be over the far west where some precipitation could push into that area after 3 PM associated from some diffluent flow ahead a trough off the West Coast and the upper low off the Pacific Northwest.
Upper trough shifting east of the forecast area along with associated precipitation. Moist east/southeast upslope flow increases tonight as pressure falls across the Rockies/high plains in response to significant upper trough moving into the western CONUS. Breezy/windy conditions with tight pressure gradient across the high plains.
1148 AM PDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Today will be windy and rainy with wet, heavy snow for the high elevations of the north Washington Cascades.
This will loosely coincide with the cold frontal passage. Warm and breezy day ahead of the approaching cold front which will be moving into northeast OK over the next couple of hours. Any pre- frontal storms or storms which can outpace the advancing the front will have the highest potential of more significant severe weather.
However, temperatures are still not expected to vary today through Monday night due to the lack of any effective temperature advection with the low pressure system remaining to the south of the WFO MPX coverage area. Highs will continue in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the short term as an upper level ridge builds over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to the east with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 60s across north central Kansas to around 80 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
332 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Look for precipitation to continue to diminish from central to east this evening as a trough exits the region. Right now the highest confidence in this fog is in the southwest and some western portions. Otherwise look for dry and slightly warmer conditions for Monday.
Portions of the Coteau may still see some graupel mix in with the additional orographic lift and cooler sfc temperatures. However, this effect is only thought to be localized with most sites in the low to mid 40s. On Monday, an upper ridge will build in with increasing southeast winds ahead of a lee side Rocky Mountain low. Temperatures will climb back into the 50s, for the most part, under the ridge.
/issued 802 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ A short wave trough tracks along the northern Gulf coast today and across the GA/FL line overnight. Atlantic high pressure will stretch over the state to the Gulf of Mexico and provide prevailing east and southeast lower level flow. In addition the short wave trough will supply some large scale ascent.
1058 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Forecast is in pretty good shape this morning with another warm late October day on tap ahead of a cold front that will begin to move into our region from the northwest late this evening into the overnight hours. Kept slight chance/low end chance pops across our far southern and southeast zones for later this afternoon given the isentropic support that could fuel some precipitation later this afternoon but anything more significant located with the arriving cold front should hold off until later this evening into the overnight hours across mainly our northern most zones. Wind speeds will diminish after sunset, ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure currently centered across the Outer Banks of NC. The high center is expected to shift offshore this evening/overnight. A cold front stretches from a low pressure center near NW MO southward to central TX. This could be in large part because a mid level trough/low pressure system is progged to develop across the northern GOMEX. Regardless, good shear values persist across far northern Georgia ahead of the FROPA, with the highest values across the far northeast. Period begins with steep upper ridging building/ moving into the region ahead of the deep upper trough digging into the central U.
(This evening through Monday) Cold front, currently just south and east of the I-44 corridor will continue to move quickly southeast this afternoon and this evening. During the day on Monday, this high will shift eastward with winds coming back around to the south and southeast through the day. They may get a bit breezy out west as surface pressure gradient tightens as pressure falls occur across the high Plains in advance of our next storm system. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday most locales, however parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will once again see afternoon temps climb into the 80s.
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Showers will continue this afternoon and move north of the region tonight, along with a warm front. Showers will continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front with coverage expected mainly north of I-70 in the vicinity of the LLJ. Overnight lows will be much warmer as SSW flow behind the front helps keep low levels mixed. Shower chances increase again Monday afternoon as an upper trough and its associated sfc cold front approaches from the west.
It's been a wet and blustery day over much of the forecast area as a compact/vigorous upper low has produced a broad precip shield within a zone of strong synoptic ascent and low/mid level moist convergence. Much of our area can expect widespread showers and embedded storms to continue as we transition from broad isentropic ascent to a maturing deformation zone as the upper low pivots east. Temperatures Monday night drop into the low to mid 30s which raises frost concerns for parts of central and southern that have yet to record a first freeze. The next impactful upper low is quick to follow as the synoptic pattern aloft remains very progressive.
310 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Scattered showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms continue to drift across central Indiana at this time with the heaviest rainfall near the warm front over the northern counties. Nonetheless, activity continues to redevelop upstream with only the southern counties in a lull at this time and the bulk of the drier air over the Lower Missouri and Tennessee Valleys. So, when the closed upper low pushes the cold front into the forecast area this evening/early tonight, there will be a severe weather threat. Dry slot is progged to enter central Indiana around Mon 12Z with residual rain showers moving through late Monday morning/afternoon with trailing upper low. Stronger radiational cooling Monday night will necessitate an even larger dip into the low 40s.
A surface front will push across the area late tonight and Monday morning with cooler and showery conditions throughout the day.
301 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain and windy storm moving in this evening - Significant river rises expected along and south of I-96 corridor; no significant flooding expected - Rain and windy storm moving in this evening An impressive low has moved into Southwest Iowa, with an associated warm front stretching across north-central Indiana and Ohio. This front is slowly moving northward, and the Iowa low pressure center will move steadily eastward along this front tonight and tomorrow.
Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is advecting moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate the aforementioned cold front will begin to move east into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Mississippi Valleys tonight into Monday morning.
Tonight and Monday Increasing northeast winds will probably be the most noticeable part of the weather tonight and Monday as low pressure moves across northern Illinois and northern Indiana.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This is resulting in southerly return flow on the backside of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and advecting moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. /issued 425 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ A cold front will come through the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning bringing with it a round of thunderstorms to the Mid South.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 75 49 66 48 / 20 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 71 48 63 44 / 10 80 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 71 48 62 43 / 10 80 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 69 47 58 40 / 0 90 50 10 0.
Lows tonight will be mostly range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, then highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 80s. Isolated showers and storms may develop over the eastern half of the area Monday morning as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
124 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Today: Overnight, a warm front lifted north across mid Missouri. By early afternoon, expect a cold front to be moving into western Missouri. The workweek: Things will cool off behind the cold front and Monday morning lows may dip into the 30s again for those in northwest Missouri.
1140 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Update - Rain begins tonight into Monday with another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Fog has just about completely burned off across Lower Michigan as sunshine and warming temperatures have taken over. There is some elevated instability as well along and north of the surface warm front so embedded convection is possible across the far southern zones overnight, which would enhance rainfall rates/totals.
141 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A weak cold front is moving southward through the Texas Panhandle as a deepening upper low moves eastward out of eastern Nebraska. This front will move into the forecast area this evening as the upper low moves across southern Iowa and will likely stall across the southern/western part of the forecast area later tonight. That warmer-than-normal trend will continue on Monday as winds turn around to the southeast to south and increase during the afternoon with highs running well above normal once again.
20z/3pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northwest Missouri with a warm front extending eastward along a Kirksville. while the second is further west immediately along an advancing cold front across western Missouri. After a brief warm-up this evening when the warm front lifts north of I-72, temps will crash late tonight and will remain in the lower to middle 50s on Monday. High pressure will build into the region Monday night, resulting in clearing skies and diminishing winds. With the associated upper low cutting off from the main flow, this system will be slow to arrive and slow to depart.
Showers will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front with coverage expected mainly north of I-70 in the vicinity of the LLJ. Overnight lows will be much warmer as ssw flow behind the front helps keep low levels mixed. Shower chances increase again Monday afternoon as an upper trough and its associated sfc cold front approaches from the west.
Given that clearing skies will lag a bit behind the departing precipitation, only have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 30s. Expect quiet conditions to continue Monday as upper level ridging builds overhead. Meanwhile, at the sfc, models continue to hint that a developing low pressure will form over Montana, causing the SPG to tighten across central SD. Otherwise, look for temperatures to remain on the cooler side, with highs only forecast to climb into the upper 40s to low 50s under mostly sunny skies.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Aviation - Rain begins tonight into Monday with another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Fog has just about completely burned off across Lower Michigan as sunshine and warming temperatures have taken over. There is some elevated instability as well along and north of the surface warm front so embedded convection is possible across the far southern zones overnight, which would enhance rainfall rates/totals.
Winds will decouple this evening into the overnight hours as a strong cold front moves into our airspace from the northwest. /issued 1058 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ Forecast is in pretty good shape this morning with another warm late October day on tap ahead of a cold front that will begin to move into our region from the northwest late this evening into the overnight hours. Kept slight chance/low end chance pops across our far southern and southeast zones for later this afternoon given the isentropic support that could fuel some precipitation later this afternoon but anything more significant located with the arriving cold front should hold off until later this evening into the overnight hours across mainly our northern most zones.
235 PM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the area tonight into Monday with increasing southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a Denver Cyclone will develop on Monday and intensify. This feature combined with stg downslope southerly flow ,over the Palmer Divide, may allow for highs to reach the lower 80s from the Denver area east northeast into southern Morgan county. However, areas further to the east and on the backside of the circulation, may stay in the lower to mid 70s.
302 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley this afternoon brining a period of rain to the northern half of the area through the evening hours. Ohio valley low pressure will increase convection chances late in day and especially Monday night.
Brief ridging will allow for a dry but gusty day over much of the area today.
827 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Showers will move north of the region tonight, along with a warm front. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front.
The above noted system that will impact the area late tonight and on Monday is a deepening area of low pressure moving across the southern Missouri River Valley. The low itself should head to the ENE, reaching northern Illinois Monday, and over Lake Erie by the evening. A cold front trailing south of the low will also move to the east, reaching NW Alabama in the mid to late morning tomorrow, and rapidly sweep to the east, being east of the region in the middle afternoon. The showers should end as the cold front sweeps across the area in the afternoon.
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley this afternoon brining a period of rain to the northern half of the area through the evening hours. Ohio valley low pressure will increase convection chances late in day and especially Monday night.
744 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley this afternoon brining a period of rain to the northern half of the area through the evening hours. Ohio valley low pressure will increase convection chances late in day and especially Monday night.
622 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Weak upper-level ridging persists over the area, keeping warmer and drier conditions over the area, and reducing chances of precipitation over the area through Monday.
1037 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 A low pressure system will move east across the region through the day on Monday, leading to occasional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. A cooler and drier airmass will then settle into the area through mid week. Axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms have pushed north of our area into northern associated with warm front moving north through the Ohio Valley. A line of showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will then move into our western areas late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of the low/front, additional shower activity will shift east across our area from late morning into early/mid afternoon. Precipitation will taper off and high pressure will work into the region.
/issued 141 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ A weak cold front is moving southward through the Texas Panhandle as a deepening upper low moves eastward out of eastern Nebraska. This front will move into the forecast area this evening as the upper low moves across southern Iowa and will likely stall across the southern/western part of the forecast area later tonight. That warmer-than-normal trend will continue on Monday as winds turn around to the southeast to south and increase during the afternoon with highs running well above normal once again.
617 PM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the area tonight into Monday with increasing southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a Denver Cyclone will develop on Monday and intensify. This feature combined with stg downslope southerly flow ,over the Palmer Divide, may allow for highs to reach the lower 80s from the Denver area east northeast into southern Morgan county. However, areas further to the east and on the backside of the circulation, may stay in the lower to mid 70s.
619 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Cold front, currently just south and east of the I-44 corridor will continue to move quickly southeast this afternoon and this evening. During the day on Monday, this high will shift eastward with winds coming back around to the south and southeast through the day. They may get a bit breezy out west as surface pressure gradient tightens as pressure falls occur across the high Plains in advance of our next storm system. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday most locales, however parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will once again see afternoon temps climb into the 80s.
By overnight Monday night, the precip confined to the higher elevations of central and southern Montana will begin to extend northeast into our CWA.
A warm front has set up to our north that is attached to a 998 mb low situated over the northeast corner of Kansas. A cold front trailing southward from the low promises to be our next weather- producer. The aforementioned cold front will continue to march eastward, and it is expected that a line of convection will develop just ahead of the surface boundary and enter the northwest corner of the mid state around 09Z early tomorrow morning. The cold front is coming through at the perfect time so that our severe potential is really at a nadir.