Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A handful of high resolution models are hinting that storms train along this trough and therefore pose a flash flood threat. Some areas received 2 to 4 inches last night and this morning, with the highest amounts in north central KS. The lowest rainfall that occurred was portions of east central KS so these locations can take a decent round of rain. Upper trough axis is expected to move through northeast Kansas Friday night.
1151 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
The benign weather pattern is expected to continue all week as high pressure, centered about 300 nautical miles offshore, continues to dominate weather conditions across the forecast area. Otherwise, northwest flow continues aloft due to the fringe effects of an upper level trough centered over the northern Rockies.
Highs this afternoon will range in the low to mid 80s with increasing humidity. Frontal wave located over the central plains this afternoon will lift E/NE through the period and eventually bring cold front into the area by Friday afternoon.
906 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
An upper level ridge and mostly dry air mass will bring a sunny and warm day on Friday.
westward moving outflow from the thunderstorms out east will combine with a cold front dropping south from the north will move across the Plains. Cooler air behind the cold front will bring much more stable conditions to the Plains along with cooler afternoon highs. Latest PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings suggest that the northwesterly to zonal upper flow from Friday evening into the weekend will transition to a upper ridging pattern from later in the weekend into next Thursday. In addition, varying degrees of southeastern Colorado surface lee-side troughing is anticipated from Friday evening into Thursday. A cold front will drop south into KCOS by this evening with a northeasterly wind shift. A cold front will arrive this evening with northeasterly winds likely gusting in excess of 25 kts.
1129 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A narrow pressure gradient between a lee cyclone near the Texas/New Mexico border and a strong Bermuda high will keep North and Central Texas in a region of strong southerly to southeasterly low level flow. With ridging aloft on Friday, temperatures will rise into the 90s across the region with a few spots across the northwest counties reaching the century mark. The pressure gradient resulting from a low over southwestern Oklahoma and high pressure over the eastern United States will result in southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph along and west of the I-35 corridor.
705 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain over central North Carolina through late week. Low level thickness and current dwpts suggest lows tonight in the lower 50s, perhaps mid 50s in our s/se zones. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
However latest RAP analysis indicates lingering elevated instability over 1000 J/kg and increasing low level jet of 45-55kt impinging on cold frontal zone running from Columbus to Sioux City, yielding effective shear near 50kt. WV imagery this afternoon showing a large upper level low pretty much encompassing the western half of the CONUS with the circulation centered over the northern Plains. The western trof splits into 2 distinct circulations on Tuesday, one centered over the Dakotas and the other centered over the Great Basin.
Temperatures have been steadily decreasing with Judith Gap already into the 20s and other locations across central and western areas closing in on the freezing mark. Cutoff low over northeast Montana this afternoon elongating with a trough axis extending toward southwest Montana as another upper level low forms over southern Oregon. As the trough axis is stretched overnight it generates shower activity across the area and some of this will become a rain snow mix and some areas could be mostly snow by morning but precipitation amounts look fairly light.
719 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Upper level ridge aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions through the first half of the week.
Eventually, a weak surge of moisture will bring some showers to the southeast and some light rain will move into the west with the cold air behind the trough/cold front in eastern Montana. Ahead of this low, light rain is possible across the southeast. As the low pushes into northwest North Dakota wrap around moisture will enter the west. The low will quickly shift off to the east and a dry slot will keep most of central North Dakota dry through the day Tuesday.
737 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
The majority of the shower activity over the Houston metro this evening has mostly dissipated, but light rain bands associated with this low are developing near the Sabine Pass and lifting towards the northwest. Have lowered rain chances for this evening based on radar trends as well as both the THOU and KHGX wind profiles showing veering 925 and 850 MB winds (reflecting the presence of the low and some very weak dry air advection). As the upper ridge builds in from the E/NE on Wed, this moisture will be shifting off to the W/SW portions of the CWA. The ridging aloft should make for quieter/warmer weather for the rest of the week. 41 A non-tropical area of low pressure can be see in GOES 16 visible satellite imagery about 40 miles SE of Galveston and is moving NW around 15 knots.
738 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through into the weekend. A highly amplified western trough/eastern ridge pattern will remain in place through Tuesday, with 500 mb heights rising to around 594 dm across the southeast through the period.
On Tuesday, cold front slowly moves east into the area. The latest guidance has come in somewhat cooler on highs for Tuesday, did lower them a degree or two, but not as cold as the latest numerical guidance. Progs in good agreement Tuesday night with the timing and coverage of the associated convection as a cold front tracks over the area.
We did adjust the higher rainfall totals this evening toward the east some but we still expect a shift back to the northwest overnight. Tuesday night the cold front sweeps east quickly, leaving only some chance pops over northwest Wisconsin during the evening, then dry conditions after midnight.
/issued 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ The upper-level ridge will be the primary weather feature this week, maintaining generally dry and above normal temperatures across the Mid-South through late week. Currently, we're watching a weak mid-level inverted trough move slowly to the west along the central Gulf coast. In addition to weak forcing for ascent, an uptick in column moisture will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The western CONUS trough retrogrades slightly to the west on Tuesday, allowing the ridge to expand and 500mb heights to climb. This expanding ridge is forecast to shove the aforementioned mid- level inverted trough farther south, limiting its impact on our weather. The presence of the building ridge will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees heading into midweek.
Adjusted lows based on the current position of cloud cover to reflect cooler temps in the eastern half of the area and about a degree warmer than previous forecast in the western half.
827 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A pool of moisture mainly in the 850-700mb layer is slowly working northward around high pressure centered to our east. A fairly stout upper ridge is centered over the eastern third of the country this afternoon. At the surface, winds were relatively light out of the southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid 50s east of I-65, with mid 50s to around 60 along and west of I-65. Tonight through Tuesday, the high amplitude upper ridge is forecast to strengthen. As the ridge builds on Tuesday, low-mid level moisture will get forced to the northwest of the forecast area. Highs Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the low 80s.
857 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Quiet weather with high pressure firmly in control again tonight. Southwesterly flow will continue to stream warmer air into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will begin to erode through the period with modest height falls aloft. A cold front associated with a pivoting short mid-level wave over the upper Great Lakes region will approach the area from the North, however the better dynamics and moisture availability is currently forecast to exist north of this region through the period keeping us dry.
50 on the higher end in the far southeast). One last upper level wave ejecting from the mean west coast trough will bring forcing (and associated showers) tonight into Tuesday morning across much of the area.
951 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through most of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend. With clear skies and winds likely to become near calm to calm later tonight, low temperatures tonight may be as cool if not cooler than this morning with around 50 inland to mid/upper 50s and lower 60s Outer Banks. High pressure remains in control of our weather again Tuesday.
Minor upward adjustment made to overnight temps due to slightly warmer initial temps, and lingering cloudiness overnight. The combination of an inverted low-level trough, and a cold front retrograding through the forecast area overnight into Tuesday morning, will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Skies will gradually clear from east to west across the CWA through the course of the day Tuesday, as high pressure to the northeast builds into the region.
925 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure centered over Southern New England will bring cool nights and mild afternoons tonight through Tuesday night.
However clouds still expected to increase over night but min temperatures will likely fall into the lower 30s southwest. Eventually, a weak surge of moisture will bring some showers to the southeast and some light rain will move into the west with the cold air behind the trough/cold front in eastern Montana. Ahead of this low, light rain is possible across the southeast. As the low pushes into northwest North Dakota wrap around moisture will enter the west. The low will quickly shift off to the east and a dry slot will keep most of central North Dakota dry through the day Tuesday.
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain over central North Carolina through late week. Strong deep layer ridging over the Mid Atlantic Region will continue to dominate. Slow gradual moderation of antecedent cool dry airmass in place will result in slightly warmer temps than the previous two nights. Compared to this same time yesterday, sfc dewpoints are a good 2 to 4 degrees F higher, and should see similar trend in morning lows ranging from mid to upper 40s in the typically cooler spots to lower/mid 50s elsewhere. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
837 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A large and strong area of high pressure is centered over the New Jersey coast, and stretches from the Canadian Maritimes to northern Cuba. The gradient around this high pressure is the catalyst for the breezes to windy conditions across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. The ridge will be the main element creating weather in the short term at least.
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Southwest flow aloft continues across the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon in between ridging across the southeast US and troughing over the northern Rockies.
1009 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Upper level ridge aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions through the first half of the week.
/issued 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ Current satellite is showing some cumulus developing over the higher elevations southwest of the Pecos River this afternoon.
1250 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through most of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend. Low level mixing along the immediate coast will moderate the temp falls with lows in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure remains in control of our weather again Tuesday.
950 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Surface ridging extending into the forecast area from the north along with upper ridging will dominate through tonight. An upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
A fairly stout upper ridge is centered over the eastern third of the country this afternoon. At the surface, winds were relatively light out of the southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid 50s east of I-65, with mid 50s to around 60 along and west of I-65. Tonight through Tuesday, the high amplitude upper ridge is forecast to strengthen. As the ridge builds on Tuesday, low-mid level moisture will get forced to the northwest of the forecast area. Highs Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the low 80s.
817 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Amplified pattern remains in place with large scale upper trough over the western US, and southwest flow over the Central High Plains.
Winds will remain out of the south through the period, breezy, with a shift to the west late in the period for locations in northwestern Oklahoma with the approach of a cold front tomorrow evening. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the northwest.
Southerly flow is bringing moisture back into Arkanas tonight with high pressure off to the east. Satellite images show the low clouds spreading to the northwest.
Temperatures tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s coast.
723 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Peak heating this afternoon has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 70s around the region. Dewpoint temperatures have inched up from the last few days, giving us a higher floor to the lows than we've seen, but readings should still crater after sunset under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions.
1021 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Ohio Valley.
1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Potent upper level trough centered across the central Rockies will once again influence the weather across the central plains tonight. After midnight the low level jet begins to veer southwest with the heavier rain potential shifting east and most of the precipitation ending by 2:00 or 3:00 AM CDT. A cold front will cross the area late tonight, which will shunt much of the low level moisture east of the area.
959 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure remains offshore through late week as a series of cold fronts move from northwest to southeast across the region. The offshore high pressure briefly builds northwestward by early weekend, before shifting back eastward again in advance of separate low pressure areas approaching from the west and south. The lows should be close to what was forecast, but often the trends in the evening can be difficult to forecast in a dry, cool airmass.
1110 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Southwest flow aloft continues across the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon in between ridging across the southeast US and troughing over the northern Rockies.
Amplified pattern remains in place with large scale upper trough over the western US, and southwest flow over the Central High Plains.
1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0.
Slightly cooler temperatures were felt across the region today as a trough of low pressure remained in place aloft. An upper level low is forecast to slide south over Northern California tonight bringing breezy conditions to the North and East Bay hills. The low is then progged to exit to the northeast Tuesday night making room for a ridge of high pressure to build in behind it. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected once again Tuesday and Tuesday night as the cool/dry airmass settles into the region.
651 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cold frontal boundary has stalled just to the northwest of the forecast area, currently near KHYS, southwest to just north KDDC. Think storm chances across SW KS will be more isolated in nature closer to the dryline/cold front triple point. Ketcham A little more uncertainty on how Thu and Fri will play out, as both the GFS and ECMWF show the frontal boundary lifting back north across the forecast area as a warm front, late Wed night or early Thu. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward into central Kansas for late tonight and reach south central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon.
1044 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through into the weekend. Dry Synoptic pattern will continue as 500mb ridge strengthens slightly on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue a warming trend with Tuesday morning lows and afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer than Monday, very close to seasonal normal.
1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cold frontal boundary has stalled just to the northwest of the forecast area, currently near KHYS, southwest to just north KDDC. Think storm chances across SW KS will be more isolated in nature closer to the dryline/cold front triple point. Ketcham A little more uncertainty on how Thu and Fri will play out, as both the GFS and ECMWF show the frontal boundary lifting back north across the forecast area as a warm front, late Wed night or early Thu. Ketcham A cold front will sink slowly southward into central Kansas this morning with winds veering out to the northwest then north. The cold front will continue to push slowly southward into south central Kansas, with some developing rain showers behind the front.
Thankfully, it appears based on webcams that snow has had a hard time sticking to road surfaces due to temperatures hovering around freezing and warm ground temps. The most intense frontogenetical forcing is forecast to shift east late this afternoon and this evening as a secondary jet max rounds the base of the trough over CO and impinges on the WY and NE plains.
Mid and high level clouds slowly overspreading the region from the northeast associated with an upper low well to the east of Oregon.
1148 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
So will be updating forecast tonight for warmer temps and will tweak clouds and winds a little. with the eastern ridge dominating the weather over central and southeast IL will hold tonight into Tuesday before a strong wave tracks through the upper Midwest toward the James Bay area of Canada.
A cool upper trough will remain across the northern and western Great Basin through mid week. The broad upper trough across the region will elongate into a southwest to northeast orientation tonight, the shear apart with a new low center over the western/northern Great Basin Tuesday. The position of the upper low to the west of Utah will produce a fairly deep layer and significantly warmer southerly flow across most the forecast area by midweek. Northwest Utah will likely be left out of this warming trend as the upper low drifts northeast close to and then across northwest Utah midweek. Precip associated with this feature will likely stay close to the low center where the best dynamic lift and cold air aloft will create the necessary lift to support precip.
802 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Ohio Valley.
As the upper ridge builds in from the E/NE on Wed, this moisture will be shifting off to the W/SW portions of the CWA. The ridging aloft should make for quieter/warmer weather for the rest of the week. 41 A non-tropical area of low pressure can be see in GOES 16 visible satellite imagery about 40 miles SE of Galveston and is moving NW around 15 knots.
With lighter winds, expect slightly cooler conditions than last night. This will include the lower Snake Plain where low temperatures will drop to freezing across most of the Western Magic Valley where a Freeze Warning is in effect. Though not as widespread, also expect to see freezing temperatures in the typically colder spots of the Treasure Valley.
646 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Southerly flow is bringing moisture back into Arkanas tonight with high pressure off to the east. Satellite images show the low clouds spreading to the northwest.
ridge strengthens a little during the forecast period. Relatively dry air and the strengthening ridge should keep vfr weather conditions in place for flight operations through the period.
A broad upper trough continues to influence the western United States, resulting in dry westerly flow across our area. This was due to a tightening gradient between a building ridge to our east and a trough axis just west of the state.
652 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Wind gusts will diminish after sunset, however the sustained winds will likely remain near 10kts overnight due to the tight pressure gradient ahead of a low pressure system. Low-level moisture streaming into the region around the edge of a sprawling high pressure center will bring increased cloudiness to the area tonight and tomorrow. Although the high temperature forecast for tomorrow was decreased by a few degrees based on the expected cloud cover and scattered precipitation, expected highs in the low 80s will still be 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky The upper level pattern will flatten by the middle of the week, causing the cold front to become quasi-stationary over the region.
Have maintained lows in the lower to mid 30s west, and lower to mid 40s east. However clouds still expected to increase over night but min temperatures will likely fall into the lower 30s southwest. Eventually, a weak surge of moisture will bring some showers to the southeast and some light rain will move into the west with the cold air behind the trough/cold front in eastern Montana. Ahead of this low, light rain is possible across the southeast. As the low pushes into northwest North Dakota wrap around moisture will enter the west. The low will quickly shift off to the east and a dry slot will keep most of central North Dakota dry through the day Tuesday.
652 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Upper level low pressure will keep temperatures below normal across the region through Tuesday.
722 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. High pressure centered over Quebec Canadian will lead to clear sky overnight. With the axis of the high being over the area as well, this should lead to light to calm winds. Have leaned toward the cooler Met guidance while also using last nights values as a guide going a couple degrees warmer, especially in the protected locations west of Interstate 95.
This is in response to a strong jet streak right over our region along with a short wave trough to our southwest kicking out northeast towards our region. The higher amounts of rain are expected to be closer to the front, across the southeastern CWA, where another three quarters to one and a half inches are possible. The front finally begins to move east on Tuesday, with weak high pressure bringing dry conditions by mid morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 degrees across north central South Dakota, to the lower 50s across west central Minnesota.