Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These clouds look to linger through the morning, with the short-term model consensus being that the increasing subsidence results in the complete erosion of the low-level saturated layer by midday. With upper level ridging in full control overnight and weak WAA commencing, expecting clear skies and lows to stabilizing in the middle 20s.
237 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Broad upper ridging over the western CONUS is placing the Northern Plains beneath west to northwest flow. At the surface, high pressure is located across eastern SD with a lee trof across eastern WY. This will bring warmer and drier air into the area, with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny skies. Upper ridge axis will cross the Northern Plains on Saturday.
High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend.
354 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Weak cold front crossing the region late this afternoon will bring a few snow showers mainly across the north and maybe a sprinkle to the southern tier.
Mid clouds will increase as a trough moves across the area this evening.
108 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Light rain showers and drizzle will be possible today ahead of an advancing cold front. High pressure is expected to bring dry and quiet weather this weekend. Dry air near the sfc will initially limit areas that see precip reaching the ground, but continued top-down moistening and additional lift with the arrival of the sfc cold front will allow for more developed rain showers. Timing of the sfc cold front plus upslope flow means light accumulating precip will favor areas south of I-70 and along the eastern ridges.
118 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Northwesterly flow continues across much of the Northern Plains with ridging upstream over the Pacific NW. Warm air advection returns in earnest today as ridge translates eastward over the region later tonight.
Expect periods of light to moderate showers today as temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s underneath overcast skies. Any ongoing rainfall coverage should rapidly dissipate after sunset behind the cold front. Luckily cloud cover will hold in place overnight, keeping lows in the lower 40s primarily despite some cold air advection. Continued cloudy conditions will allow for a very warm night with lows only dropping into the lower to mid 40s.
254 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Weak cold front crossing the region late this afternoon will bring a few snow showers mainly across the north and maybe a sprinkle to the southern tier.
1034 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Light rain showers and drizzle will be possible today ahead of an advancing cold front. High pressure is expected to bring dry and quiet weather this weekend. Dry air near the sfc will initially limit areas that see precip reaching the ground, but continued top-down moistening and additional lift with the arrival of the sfc cold front will allow for more developed rain showers. Timing of the sfc cold front plus upslope flow means light accumulating precip will favor areas south of I-70 and along the eastern ridges.
A ridge will sit over the region today leading to dry and near normal conditions under dissipating cloud cover. Thus, expect cooler temperatures tonight as we lose that cloud cover in many locations today. On Saturday night the midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest makes landfall.
Forecast soundings indicate a shallow but persistent moist layer co-located with low-level lift associated with a warm front. Currently, high pressure has been clearing clouds through the James River Valley in weak cold and dry advection. Meanwhile return flow across southwest into western North Dakota is already bringing warm advection back into the region ahead of a warm front that will move into the region today. So clouds will be a short term issue, and we are generally going decreasing clouds by afternoon west as the warm front moves east, with mostly cloudy skies north and east. Highs today will be in the lower 40s southwest and west central where the sunshine and best warm advection takes place. But only in the upper 20s and lower 30s central and north where clouds should hold down temperatures ahead of the warm front.
The region will be between an inverted trough off the Atlantic coast, and a low approaching from the central Gulf coast Tonight, with a weak frontal boundary stretched across area between these systems. An upper trough will move across region this afternoon and evening. Additional cloud cover will accompany this trough, with a few sprinkles or light showers possible. During the day Saturday, the trough to the east will move further east, as low over gulf moves slowly to the southwest of the region. High pressure will ridge south across the region, pushing weak frontal boundary to the south.
A surface lee trough is still expected to form tomorrow morning allowing for another breezy but otherwise pleasant day as highs stay in the low 60s.
157 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Clearing skies and warmer temperatures were the story for this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure has strengthened over the mountains. Little change is expected over the next 12 hours as the main ridge axis moves overhead by early Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be located over central to western Wyoming. Concurrently, a jet streak aloft from an approaching low amplitude west coast trough is expected to reach eastern Wyoming by 18z Saturday.
244 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, a 1030mb High was located across the central Plains, while the remnants of a surface cold front were located along the Texas coast. As a result, many locations should see low temps in the low to mid 30s, with low-lying spots possibly dropping below freezing.
A cool and dry air mass will cover south Texas tonight as a weak high pressure ridge settles into the region. Weak onshore flow will develop by late afternoon as the high pressure ridge moves to the east.
Clear skies and breezy northerly winds are prevailing across South- Central Texas behind the overnight cold front. With the south winds increasing by Saturday night, lows will be 3-5 degrees warmer than tonight.
1025 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Pretty quiet weather expected today as a flattened upper level ridge axis moves across Wyoming later in the day and into tonight. Main forecast concern this weekend will be the potential for strong winds as two Pacific troughs merge across the Front Range as they push eastward this weekend. Kept the High Wind Watch out for now, mainly due to low confidence in timing since models have backed off quite a bit for late tonight and early Saturday morning.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 58 42 54 46 / 30 10 10 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 36 55 45 / 20 0 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 39 55 37 54 44 / 20 0 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 52 32 52 41 / 20 0 0 20 50.
1028 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Broad upper ridging over the western CONUS is placing the Northern Plains beneath west to northwest flow. At the surface, high pressure is located across eastern SD with a lee trof across eastern WY. This will bring warmer and drier air into the area, with morning fog giving way to mostly sunny skies. Upper ridge axis will cross the Northern Plains on Saturday.
220 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Quiet weather conditions are expected into this weekend as high pressure dominates.
High pressure over the area will allow temperatures to moderate over the weekend as warm air advection takes place with southerly winds.
Tonight the area of high pressure located in eastern Nebraska will continue to move eastward and light winds should gradually turn back to the south.
1044 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 A cold front has pushed through the area early this morning with cold advection and low clouds moving in behind it. The low clouds look very shallow in nature and models seem to have a decent handle on them. Between the cold advection and clouds, temperatures should struggle to warm up today and we should only see highs in the lower 40s and upper 30s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 42 55 42 54 / 50 40 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 39 54 36 55 / 40 20 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 52 39 54 37 54 / 40 20 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 35 52 32 52 / 40 20 0 0 20.
125 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 As high pressure translates slowly eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley area tonight, light southerly winds will return from west to east across Kansas. Areas along the Flint Hills and eastward will see abundant radiational cooling and perhaps some patchy shallow ground fog in low-lying areas, but fog and low stratus will not be nearly as widespread as it was the previous night across the high plains region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): The front is currently working through the RGV and off the lower Texas coast, with much drier air and light northerly winds to follow through Saturday morning. Expect decreasing clouds into tonight northwest to southeast, with highs still reaching into the low 80s for most locations and lows into the 50s. A few typically cooler locations across the northern ranchlands and western brush country may dip into the upper 40s tonight under clear skies with light winds. High pressure settles in, weakening the pressure gradient, and light southeasterly flow returns by Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday rebound to the low to mid 70s.
226 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 A high pressure ridge is located across the Permian Basin this afternoon and will move southeast overnight allowing winds to shift back from the southeast tomorrow.
1109 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Currently - Water vapor imagery this morning shows a broad upper level ridge that extends from the eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean has moved into our area. A weak upper level low is diving southeastward across the Red River Valley.
259 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The stratus behind last night's cold front, now along the Ohio River Valley, dissipated over the forecast area this morning. High pressure, centered over northwest Iowa this afternoon, will advance eastward across the region tonight under a dry northwest flow aloft, providing clear and cool conditions. Quiet weather will be the rule in the near term with moderating temperatures as southerly winds follow the high retreating to the east. Saturday will be breezy and warmer as highs return to the widespread 40s and possibly near 50 in the far south.
/issued 917 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019/ Dry stable conditions (via 12Z raob data) courtesy of high pressure moving off the mid Atlantic coast this morning will support another very pleasant dry day across the entire forecast area with ample sunshine expected. After a cool start temperatures will rebound back to near normal during the afternoon with high topping out in the lower 70s north, and mid 70s central and south. High pressure northeast of the area will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with southeast to south winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
254 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Light rain showers will end tonight as a cold front passes through the region. High pressure is expected to bring dry and quiet weather this weekend. The arrival of colder air with the front may briefly cause precipitation to change over to snow over the southeast ridges, but little to no accumulation is expected due to minimal dendritic growth and the lack of stronger support aloft. Cooler air behind the sfc front will remain in the region under NW Saturday, resulting in slightly below normal temperature.
/issued 500 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front has moved across Texas, and it's producing gusty winds, from the north, early this morning. This front will result in much cooler temperatures today. Although winds will diminish later this afternoon, cool air will remain in place tonight, as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s.
1003 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 A weak southerly flow will develop into the afternoon between high pressure off the Carolina coast and low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will allow temperatures to be a little warmer than yesterday, closer to normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid 70s. (Previous Discussion) High pressure exiting the Carolinas this morning, will shift east towards the Atlantic later today, which will veer local winds from the east this morning to south by early afternoon and southwest in the late afternoon.
High pressure aloft will shift overhead today. Height trends continue to build this morning as short wave ridging shifts east across the great basin region. Primary forecast challenges this shift will focus on fog/stratus formation (or redevelopment) tonight across these same valleys/basins under strengthening inversion conditions, and the weekend trough.
340 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Light rain showers will end tonight as a cold front passes through the region. High pressure is expected to bring dry and quiet weather this weekend. The arrival of colder air with the front may briefly cause precipitation to change over to snow over the southeast ridges, but little to no accumulation is expected due to minimal dendritic growth and the lack of stronger support aloft. Cooler air behind the sfc front will remain in the region under NW Saturday, resulting in slightly below normal temperature.
The stratus behind last night's cold front, now along the Ohio River Valley, dissipated over the forecast area this morning. High pressure, centered over northwest Iowa this afternoon, will advance eastward across the region tonight under a dry northwest flow aloft, providing clear and cool conditions. Quiet weather will be the rule in the near term with moderating temperatures as southerly winds follow the high retreating to the east. Saturday will be breezy and warmer as highs return to the widespread 40s and possibly near 50 in the far south.
627 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Moisture associated with an upper level disturbance ahead of an approaching cold front will hold a chance for light showers through this evening.
/issued 308 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ Cooler, more seasonable temperatures should last for all of about a day, as the winds become southerly and warm air advection returns tonight and into Saturday.
515 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The low post frontal stratus is forecast to move south of the area by early evening, leaving a mostly clear sky for the remainder of the night. Southerly winds on the west side of the high will advect warm air into the CWA Saturday afternoon, helping boost temperatures into the upper 40s and low 50s.
620 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Weak cold front crossing the region late this afternoon will bring a few snow showers mainly across the north and maybe a sprinkle to the southern tier.
610 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Quiet weather conditions are expected into this weekend as high pressure dominates.
/issued 244 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, a 1030mb High was located across the central Plains, while the remnants of a surface cold front were located along the Texas coast. As a result, many locations should see low temps in the low to mid 30s, with low-lying spots possibly dropping below freezing.
A weak cold front has now completely moved through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. /issued 256 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): The front is currently working through the RGV and off the lower Texas coast, with much drier air and light northerly winds to follow through Saturday morning. Expect decreasing clouds into tonight northwest to southeast, with highs still reaching into the low 80s for most locations and lows into the 50s. A few typically cooler locations across the northern ranchlands and western brush country may dip into the upper 40s tonight under clear skies with light winds. High pressure settles in, weakening the pressure gradient, and light southeasterly flow returns by Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday rebound to the low to mid 70s.
509 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 After a chilly night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s across central Illinois, abundant sunshine will warm temperatures well into the 40s on Saturday.
308 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 Cooler, more seasonable temperatures should last for all of about a day, as the winds become southerly and warm air advection returns tonight and into Saturday.
/issued 357 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ A weak cold front is currently moving across the Midsouth this afternoon.
A weak disturbance embedded within a low amplitude trough has moved east of the area with much drier air and NVA moving into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 59 44 55 / 30 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 56 37 57 / 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 56 37 55 / 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 53 33 51 / 20 0 0 0.
328 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 After a chilly night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s across central Illinois, abundant sunshine will warm temperatures well into the 40s on Saturday.
946 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Moisture associated with an upper level disturbance ahead of an approaching cold front will hold a chance for light showers through this evening.
823 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 A cold front has moved across the region.
320 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 Will place the cold front advancing into Acadiana at this time. A very pleasant weekend appears ahead with low level high pressure in place and flow trending more zonal aloft.
The low will move east of the area Saturday night.
548 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 As high pressure translates slowly eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley area tonight, light southerly winds will return from west to east across Kansas. Areas along the Flint Hills and eastward will see abundant radiational cooling and perhaps some patchy shallow ground fog in low-lying areas, but fog and low stratus will not be nearly as widespread as it was the previous night across the high plains region.
The ridge of high pressure that is over the Northern Rockies will begin to shift to the east, putting the region into southwesterly flow by Saturday morning. Snow levels will be relatively high for this time of year, so snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain. The valleys will encounter a wintry mix Saturday morning, with a few locations experiencing some light freezing rain.
/issued 226 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ A high pressure ridge is located across the Permian Basin this afternoon and will move southeast overnight allowing winds to shift back from the southeast tomorrow.
The low comes ashore Saturday afternoon with the bulk of the precipitation shifting east as well.
Model visibility forecasts do not show any fog/freezing fog at this time. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Models, however, are rather stingy in terms of relinquishing this low level moisture overnight.
545 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 High pressure will dominate through the TAF period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
306 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Mostly cloudy skies will persist through Saturday as a low pressure system approaches the region.
755 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 After a chilly night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s across central Illinois, abundant sunshine will warm temperatures well into the 40s on Saturday.
A weak area of low pressure will move into the Gulf on Saturday bringing with it a chance of some showers, especially across the northern waters.
Skies have cleared across the area, although northerly winds and CAA will keep high temperatures 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Increasing southerly winds, WAA, and clear skies through the day on Saturday will allow for above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s.
459 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Clearing skies and warmer temperatures were the story for this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure has strengthened over the mountains. Little change is expected over the next 12 hours as the main ridge axis moves overhead by early Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be located over central to western Wyoming. Concurrently, a jet streak aloft from an approaching low amplitude west coast trough is expected to reach eastern Wyoming by 18z Saturday.
357 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 A weak cold front is currently moving across the Midsouth this afternoon.
As the ridge of warm, high pressure breaks down Saturday over the region, the responsible cold air disturbance and low pressure trough from the Canadian Rockies will descend through western and central Montana by Saturday afternoon. Detailed model data is indicating the possibility of freezing rain mixing in on Saturday night. The coverage and extent of freezing rain seems to be isolated and splotchy, but is worth mentioning.
/issued 320 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ Will place the cold front advancing into Acadiana at this time. A very pleasant weekend appears ahead with low level high pressure in place and flow trending more zonal aloft.
Even under the influence of good CAA, the deck of clouds will help to keep temperatures in the low 40s in the north to low 50s in the south. A gloomy start to Saturday is expected as the low cloud deck remains in place across the region.
Immediate concern for aviation is the low cigs and expected fog. Have made an update with the lower visibilities in the southern terminals where dwpts are anticipated to stay in the lower 50s, and considerably less cloud cover already. Winds are generally N/NE and light, though will increase a bit in the overnight hours as the pressure gradient increases between the low over the Gulf and sfc ridging to the N/NW. Even under the influence of good CAA, the deck of clouds will help to keep temperatures in the low 40s in the north to low 50s in the south. A gloomy start to Saturday is expected as the low cloud deck remains in place across the region.
The 18Z NAM and NAMnest want to bring some light freezing rain across far north central North Dakota tomorrow morning associated with strong low level warm air advection.
711 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Weak cold front crossing the region late this afternoon will bring a few snow showers mainly across the north and maybe a sprinkle to the southern tier.
532 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 For the 00Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure is forecast to develop over ern CO and ern NM by late Saturday morning.
343 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The low post frontal stratus is forecast to move south of the area by early evening, leaving a mostly clear sky for the remainder of the night. Southerly winds on the west side of the high will advect warm air into the CWA Saturday afternoon, helping boost temperatures into the upper 40s and low 50s.
345 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 As high pressure translates slowly eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley area tonight, light southerly winds will return from west to east across Kansas. Areas along the Flint Hills and eastward will see abundant radiational cooling and perhaps some patchy shallow ground fog in low-lying areas, but fog and low stratus will not be nearly as widespread as it was the previous night across the high plains region.
440 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019 Northwesterly flow continues across much of the Northern Plains with ridging upstream over the Pacific NW. Warm air advection returns in earnest today as ridge translates eastward over the region later tonight.
Light to moderate snow accumulations are expected in the mountains with rain in the valleys and locally very light freezing rain.
1253 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 Northwesterly flow and building high pressure will make for a cold start to the weekend. High pressure begins to exit the region Sunday, allowing warmth to infiltrate the area.
A weak area of low pressure just offshore of the Florida panhandle will contribute to mostly cloudy skies across the area today with scattered showers across the southern half of the area.
/issued 357 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ A weak cold front is currently moving across the Midsouth this afternoon. The high will move to the east by Sunday, allowing for increased southerly winds and slightly warmer temperatures.