Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
110 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND PULL THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCH UP IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP MINS SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR 70 DEGREES. INLAND NE OHIO WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s and might max out in the lower 80s, whereas areas farther north, where skies cleared out much earlier are running in the lower to middle 80s, and might be able to make a run at the upper 80s or lower 90s before the day is out. Given the PWAT values approaching 2+ inches a heavy rain threat is present for the overnight period tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 70 where the low level jet will nose into the area. Once again, with area soils and streams being saturated the flooding concerns will persist through at least Wednesday afternoon, by which time the mid level wave and associated cold front will be through the area, making way for a drier and cooler air mass through the late part of the week.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
125 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROF IS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL SD BY MIDDAY. TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THEN A BIT WARMER WED.
/ISSUED 915 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. WITH NE FLOW ALOFT AS OUR AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN TX. AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA COAST. TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS DEW POINTS ARE HOVERING AROUND THOSE TEMPERATURES. WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF PENSACOLA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME LOOKING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH TEXAS/ARKANSAS AREA.
323 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 An upper level trough of low pressure will move east across the northern and central Plains from today into tonight. This trough will drive a cold front southeast into central Missouri and southeastern Kansas this afternoon. Many of the high resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate this. Temperatures will be cooler behind that front and given the precipitation and clouds.
355 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND PULL THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UPR TROF IS OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WITH RIDGES OVER THE ERN PAC AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PLAINS TROF WL ADVANCE EWD AND SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES RGN AND THEN DEEPEN AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STARTS TO GAIN AMPLITUDE LATER THIS WEEK. JET ENERGY PROGRESSING ACRS CANADA WL PROBABLY BREAK THROUGH N OF THE TROF. THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER TODAY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Enough clouds will help temps peak in the lower 90s, vs the mid 90s of the Holiday weekend.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MIGRATING COLD FRONT.
631 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
207 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A LARGE CENTRAL CONUS TROF WITH A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA PROVINCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OFF TO THE E. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MRNG. ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MRNG.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS WASHINGTON MAY SPREAD SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SW WASHINGTON TODAY.
The persistent upper ridge will start to slide west and an approaching cold front associated with an upper trough sweeping across the northern ConUS will move through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. For today, a prefrontal trough will develop as the cold front will push its way across the northern Texas Panhandle. Heating across the higher terrain should cause some thunderstorms to form similar to the last couple days as good theta-e air will be present.
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE GULF THIS MORNING AND ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS. THE LOW WILL BE SHIFTING WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN MID STATE.
151 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND BRING COOLER WEATHER. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NE TO THE MID/UPR 60S SW.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST.
Convection will continue to develop today, particularly across northeast and central MO and west central IL as upper level divergence increases with the approach of the broad upper level trough over the northern Plains, and the approach of the cold front. Heavy rainfall is possible with the storms due to high values of precipitable water ahead of the cold front.
418 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
The upper level high which has been centered over our area will be suppressed into northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. This will occur as an upper trough moves from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest. Trailing portion of associated cold front will push south into the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma this afternoon, with convection developing along it. Carrying the highest (40-50 percent) PoPs across the northern and eastern Big Country, where more coverage is expected.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE COOLER LOWS TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN COLD SPOTS BELOW FREEZING AND SOME 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS ON THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.
SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. KEPT IN SOME POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOWEST IN THE NORTH AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER MOVING IN LATE. WED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE W. RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN SITS DOWNSTATE UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN IT SHIFTS TO THE NE. BUT OVERALL IT DOES LOOK COOLER FRI INTO SAT. THEN SUN AND MON LOOK TO BE WARMER.
Will trend towards the smaller chances as the cold front will be moving out of the area and with the atmosphere worked over by current early morning convection. Mostly cloudy skies will become partly cloudy to clear from northwest to southeast sections by late afternoon and evening as the upper trough exits. Highs today will be cooler and in the mid 80s except near 90 at Medicine Lodge. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies.
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING AT BAY.
CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 5-7 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK AND BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE IS CONTINUING TO ADVERSELY IMPACT VISIBILITIES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION.
SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 80 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
326 AM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEK, LEADING TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
243 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PRIMARILY DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
643 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY.
141 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
344 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER BC COAST/ONTARIO RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MAN WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SASK TO SOUTHERN MT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL KS WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY/COOL FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE BLACK HILLS PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. 5KJ/KG MLCAPE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF IT WITH TD/S IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN.
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A TAD (AND NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY) WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING TROUGH EAST OF AREA WITH WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWING. THINK DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GULF AND WEAK RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH DID GO A TAD WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS. WEAK IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION CONTINUES TO FILL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SPLIT CONSOLIDATES NORTHWARD.
A MUCH QUIETER AND CALMER 36 HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS THE H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN US FINALLY FILLS AND EJECTS TO THE NE. H5 RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 90S.
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015 AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT. FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY. WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.
ALTHOUGH RIDGE/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST ALABAMA WILL GREATLY HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA TONIGHT AND LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
A MODERATE SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HORN AND YOLLA BOLLYS. AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WILL START TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HORN AND YOLLA BOLLYS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THU THROUGH SAT AS A BROAD FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SO I WONT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A NEW UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST SUN INTO MON.
WITH FETCH CONTINUING TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. A MUCH QUIETER AND CALMER 36 HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS THE H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN US FINALLY FILLS AND EJECTS TO THE NE. H5 RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 90S.
BUT THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO FOCUS THE RAIN, WITH A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND OUT OF THE 80S FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER ALL SITES UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL. THIS HIGH MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MEAN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR AND SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
755 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH UTAH TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF ARIZONA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 66 82 66 / 80 80 70 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 65 81 64 / 70 70 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 65 81 65 / 70 70 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 64 79 62 / 60 70 70 50.
LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
612 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Today - Wednesday: Vorticity max which lifted out of West TX yesterday and helped generate the MCC that roared through east TX has attempted to merge with the NE/KS upper trough. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity max currently over east central KS while allowing a separate h7 vorticity max to rotate east through the NE/KS upper trough and across northern MO this afternoon. A weak cold front/convergent zone is expected to drift south through the CWA tonight and will provide additional lift for scattered convection. Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum coverage during the early evening.
STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1. ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE KEY WEST RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST. AND EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
730 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO ALLOW UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK. A STRONG 592-593 DECAMETER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHICH SHOULD YIELD MOST AREAS A GOOD CATEGORY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A BIT WHILE DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST.
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
1116 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND SCALED BACK FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE MORE SOUTHERN WITH A LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE LATEST UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WEST PART OF RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE RAP DOES FORECAST AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO 500J/KG OR LESS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A BIT WHILE DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER ERN WA THIS MORNING WITH A W-SW FLOW OVER OUR CWA. ABUNDANT AIRMASS MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ARE WORKING ON THIS BRINGING AREAS OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THU WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE LOW KICKING OFF CONVECTION. THE SRN CWA DRIES A LITTLE TONIGHT AND WED BUT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AGAIN ON THU AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS CLOSER AND THE MAIN TROF AXIS CROSSES THE CWA.
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
1208 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
/ISSUED 511 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED IN FROM YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SUNRISE. WITH CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THAT AREA.
SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED A PRONOUNCED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CAUSE HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
951 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015 WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH OUR AREA WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG IT. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS IN THE LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE UNDER RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.