Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
116 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Isolated to scattered showers later this afternoon will be followed by a return to dry weather as cool high pressure regains control.
Winds will shift to the southwest tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures behind the front will be pretty much right at seasonal norms today and much cooler than we saw yesterday afternoon. No change in the unrelenting ridge pattern over the western half of CONUS.
138 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Isolated to scattered showers later this afternoon will be followed by a return to dry weather as cool high pressure regains control.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Cold front has moved through all but our extreme southern zones late this afternoon with a cooler/drier airmass funneling into the region from the north. This airmass will allow for cool conditions once again tonight with lows ranging from the middle 40s north to near 50 to the lower 50s south. Deep longwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes southward through the Ohio and Tenn Valleys into the Lower Miss Valley will change very little through the short term portion of the forecast.
Highs today will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s with 50s in the higher elevations. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 67 45 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 64 44 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 65 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 62 40 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0.
along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. Warm advection on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone will result in a warming trend on Friday, with highs ~10F warmer than today.
A cold front will drop into the region during the day Friday bringing gusty northerly winds. STP Overall theme during this period is warm and dry conditions look to persist due to continued dominance of an upper ridge over the western US.
238 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A chance of light rain and slightly warmer temperatures Friday highlight the short term period. With warmer air pushing from the west, highs up to the mid 60s are forecast in the far west. Highs in the low 50s in the James River and Turtle Mountains.
241 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The high amplitude ridge continues to be over the western portion of the CONUS with northwest upper level flow over the region. Temperatures were slightly cooler today behind a cooler flow of easterly winds on the surface in the post-frontal airmass. Current wind patterns and HRRR smoke models show another day of extensive smoke cover over the northern and central foothills as well as the lower elevations of I-76 and south. On the synoptic scale, a ridge of high pressure will remain over the west coast, with a northwesterly flow over CO.
Latest sfc analysis showing a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air in the form of a cold front just now entering our northern zones attm with this frontal boundary expected to move through all but our extreme southern zones by 4 pm this afternoon. 13 Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: An amplified synoptic pattern will remain in place with stout ridging across the Great Basin and a downstream mean longwave trough. The CWA will be just west of the trough axis with northwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A dry cold front dropping out of the Great Plains will move through the area today with dew points dropping into the low 40s by tomorrow morning. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s north of I- 20 to the low 80s along and south of I-20.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Tonight and Friday: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front just south of the CWA with a 1025mb high centered over the central Plains. Normal highs run in the low to mid 80s.
231 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Cold front is officially parked in South Florida and that is where it will stay for the rest of the week. This means high pressure to our north will influence the area which will keep our slightly cooler and less humid air in place. Ridging in the Atlantic will start to push back in during the weekend.
along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. Warm advection on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone will result in a warming trend on Friday, with highs ~10F warmer than today. To start off the period, upper ridging dominates the western half of the country, with an upper trough extending from the Plains to the east coast.
354 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A plume of high clouds riding around the western side of an upper trof over much of the eastern U. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, but with dewpoints still in the upper 40s to lower 50s conditions continue to be quite pleasant. The aforementioned trof will push a dry front through the region later this evening.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions through Friday, with varying amounts of smoke aloft. A weak disturbance will move across the Pac NW this weekend, strengthening onshore flow and bringing cooler temperatures. Filtered sun should start poking through the low clouds between 11AM and noon. Coastal low clouds will struggle to break apart for any significant amount of time today as the thermal low is well established inland and will keep drawing the cooler, denser air onshore.
313 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Re-enforcing Canadian cold front currently entering the northern portions of the forecast area and will continue to push through the remainder of the land areas this evening and south of the coastal waters by late evening. Low level cold air advection overnight to likely not allow the boundary layer to decouple fully, to maintain slightly warmer overnight temperatures tonight despite frontal passage. Full raditional cooling is expected Friday night with some drainage enhancement in and near river valleys for lows returning to the lower 50s, possibly 49 in a couple of low lying places in interior portions of the forecast area.
Morning update: Strong upper ridge will continue today with mid and high clouds topping the ridge into Eastern Washington and north Idaho.
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A very chilly air mass is over the Upper Midwest today, with surface temperatures in the 40s over much of MN/WI and the lower to mid 50s over Iowa and Illinois.
321 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The eastern trough and western ridge upper flow pattern will largely dominate the weather pattern for nearly the entire forecast period with only a few waves moving through the flow over the next 7 days. As the high pressure shifts off to the east and lee troughing occurs to the west throughout the day tomorrow, expect quite breezy southerly flow by tomorrow afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 338 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Cold front has moved through all but our extreme southern zones late this afternoon with a cooler/drier airmass funneling into the region from the north. This airmass will allow for cool conditions once again tonight with lows ranging from the middle 40s north to near 50 to the lower 50s south. Deep longwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes southward through the Ohio and Tenn Valleys into the Lower Miss Valley will change very little through the short term portion of the forecast.
Broad high pressure will be the dominant feature the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning with high pressure in control. Tranquil weather conditions will persist through the next 36 hours as mid level ridging overhead provides subsidence across the region. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure moving south into the Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf arrives late tonight into Friday.
We nudged the blend slightly toward the cooler high res guidance which may capture radiative effects better tonight.
Late tonight/early Friday, a dry cold front will move through, bringing cooler temperatures for the area tomorrow.
930 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over OR/CA/NV with dry NW flow aloft around it across the Northern Rockies and MT. Some high level cloud-cover is spilling over the ridge into the area as well as some haze from distant wildfire activity along the west coast. Continued ridging over the area will lead to warm and dry conditions today, followed by cooler overnight lows with nearly clear skies.
Lows tonight look to bottom out in the low to mid 40s, but some low lying areas and locations on the Plateau may see some upper 30s.
Sincavage We expect this pattern of very dry weather to continue for at least another week as the upper ridge in the western U.
115 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through tonight as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore Friday morning followed by cool and dry high pressure for the weekend. Weak area of high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear and dry today and tonight ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs today will be very near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while highs Friday will range below average for early October in the low to mid 70s. Broad mid level troughing will give way to a southwest flow. At the surface, high pressure will move across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through the period. Cold front moves through the area early Friday morning.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure (around 1020 mb) is in control across the CWA. Coupled with mid level ridging aloft, tranquil and dry weather will persist through the next 36 hours. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure will move south into the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf tonight into Friday. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night will generally fall into the 60s, with Friday night edging a degree or two warmer, with lower 70s near the coast.
231 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure remained entrenched to the west and will persist through the short term period.
Cooler conditions are expected today across eastern New Mexico in the wake of a cold front last night.
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Chilly Canadian high pressure will settle southeast from the upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions tonight/Friday/Friday night time frame.
/NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ A cold front moved through the region earlier this morning which has helped drop temperatures over North Texas about 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. A breezy northeast wind today will subside around sunset, allowing for efficient radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low 50s across much of the area with the mid-upper 40s expected along the Red River and Western North Texas.
High pressure will continue to build in, but cloud cover could be stubborn to clear. High pressure builds from the west through the day, which should clear most of this lower cloud cover.
An upper level trough remains anchored over the eastern conus of the U. today into Friday while a surface cold front comes in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. This front will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air with no precipitation. Thursday night will feature lows in the lower to middle 50's with northwesterly winds becoming northerly at 5 to 10mph. Friday winds will relax some to generally 5mph, and with the reinforced cool airmass highs will generally stay in the lower to maybe middle 70's with clear skies. VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region, with the only noteworthy feature being the surface cold front passing this afternoon and evening.
The mid clouds will keep temps up in the low to mid 30s overnight from the Red River Valley westward. Temps on Friday will be a tad warmer than today thanks to some slightly warmer 925 and 850mb temps moving in, but only by a few degrees and still well below average.
Upper level trof diving over the Great Lakes Region is wide enough that a weak backdoor cold front is currently over the Panhandles. Temperatures much cooler than yesterday, yet just a couple degrees below normal. Winds will shift out of the south again this evening and warmer air will return tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
/Issued 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ /Today and Tomorrow/ A cold front moved through the region earlier this morning which has helped drop temperatures over North Texas about 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. A breezy northeast wind today will subside around sunset, allowing for efficient radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low 50s across much of the area with the mid-upper 40s expected along the Red River and Western North Texas.
A cooler airmass was in place today following the latest cold front passage late yesterday. Another jet streak will be rounding the larger scale trough late Friday, from the western Dakotas down into the Nebraska Panhandle.
Thus, temperatures across the area will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday and around 5 degrees below normal for early October. The post-frontal air mass behind yesterday's cold front will result in high temperatures ~15 deg F cooler, which is around 5 deg F below average for early October.
Overall, lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s which should bring areas to widespread frost. On Friday, the models now agree that a decent short wave trough will be dropping in from the northwest with good lift with it along with not much moisture. With the cloud cover and showers along with south winds, Friday may only be a few degrees warmer than today, ranging from the lower 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s southwest in the cwa.
Strong cold front was making its way through with mainly scattered showers/isolated storms noted on radar.
A highly amplified upper level pattern remains in place today as troughing encompasses much of the eastern United States and into the central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a cold front is currently moving into the region denoted by a strong dewpoint gradient with low/mid 50's dewpoints across the valley and upper 30's/low 40's dewpoints across southeast Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau. surface pressure will continue to rise behind the front as high pressure settles into the central plains. Drier and cooler weather conditions are expected tonight and on Friday. Lows tonight will range from the low to upper 40's across most locations with a few higher elevations in the upper 30's. Even some of the highest elevations may struggle to reach 50 degrees.
1132 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 With high pressure firmly in control across the entire western U. Below normal lows will be seen in some of the higher valleys of northwest Colorado, areas that have already seen their season ending hard freeze. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday due to this passing disturbance, but still remaining about 5 degrees above normal. High pressure builds right back into the region this weekend with dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and above normal daytime temperatures.
Light and variable winds will prevail tonight, becoming slightly stronger out of the northeast in the morning as a weak surge of reinforcing high pressure builds across the region. This is in response to the long wave trough over the eastern U.
/Updated at 1148 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020/ Re-enforcing cold front working through Alabama this afternoon is hardly noticable outside of a mild wind shift.
Locally the low levels were quite dry though with RH in the low 30s and clouds atop a 5-6k foot mixed layer along with gusty winds. The main weather story for tonight is the potential for frost or even some brief sub-freezing temperatures. However, despite a quick drop this evening from the 50s back into the lower 40s, the upper level moisture streaming over the Rockies is likely to bring a layer of mid level clouds across the region for much of the night.
While a ridge of high pressure continues its dominance across the western United States, weak atmospheric waves/disturbances passing over it have tilted the axis of stability back towards the west over coastal Washington. A more pronounced disturbance that is currently depicted on satellite over the Pacific Ocean west of northern California is forecast to move into the west coast ridge over the weekend.
329 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 As of 20Z Thursday afternoon the highly amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing in the east and ridging across the west. As a result, confidence has increased for scattered clouds overnight and slightly warmer temperatures.
Thus, it could be a scenario of some areas may not drop below freezing and the lack of strong radiational cooling developing after midnight, could mean some areas only dropping into the upper 30s.
High pressure nudges in for Friday should result in the potential for more in the way of sunshine. However, low level thermal trough and broadly cyclonic mid level flow still support potential for scattered-broken cumulus.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Mid morning surface analysis had a dry cold front mid way through the CWA. This cold front will push south of the CWA this afternoon and only serve to reinforce the cool dry airmass across the region. Despite the cold front, under full insolation today temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure rebuilding behind a cold front will bring northeast winds up to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming northwest at 5 knots after 02/00Z. /Today through Friday/ A cold front stretching from near Clarksville, Texas, to Hope, Arkansas, will continue to move southeast across the region today.
230 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A reinforcing cold front moves through tonight. Chilly high pressure to end the week.
240 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the Great Plains. This wave will bring a cold front to the area, with gusty NW winds behind it.
Look for this mid-level wave and surface cold front to push southeast of the area by this evening but clouds could be stubborn to clear as high pressure builds in. As such, will keep Frost Advisory going as is (1 am to 8 am Friday) with lows expected to fall into the upper 20s (central WI), to the lower/mid 30s elsewhere. High pressure drifts across the area Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected.
302 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A moisture starved cold front moves across the area tonight and offshore Friday morning followed. Cool and dry high pressure develops for the weekend.
1138 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion Upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over OR/CA/NV with dry NW flow aloft around it across the Northern Rockies and MT. Some high level cloud-cover is spilling over the ridge into the area as well as some haze from distant wildfire activity along the west coast. Continued ridging over the area will lead to warm and dry conditions today, followed by cooler overnight lows with nearly clear skies.
1020 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this evening shows a deep layer mean anticyclone centered east of the Bahamas over the subtropical western North Atlantic Ocean, while a deep trough extends from the Great Lakes southward to the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the remnant diffuse baroclinic zone associated with a cold front that had penetrated the Gulf basin a few days ago lay stationary from the South Atlantic Bight across central Florida and over central Gulf of Mexico. Modest large- scale ascent induced by geopotential height falls associated with the large-scale trough likely has steepened mid- level lapse rates locally. Lower-tropospheric flow is rather weak, averaging about 6 knots through the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 67 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 64 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 65 44 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 63 39 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 10.
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A reinforcing cold front moves through tonight. Chilly high pressure to end the week.
545 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Amplified pattern continues aloft with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. Short wave lobes will continue to round the base of the mean trough during the course of the short term.
VFR conditions will continue to prevail due to persistent high pressure. /issued 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure (around 1020 mb) is in control across the CWA. Coupled with mid level ridging aloft, tranquil and dry weather will persist through the next 36 hours. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure will move south into the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf tonight into Friday. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night will generally fall into the 60s, with Friday night edging a degree or two warmer, with lower 70s near the coast.
Forecast lows are in the low to mid 40s across the CWA, with a few areas in west TN possibly dipping into the upper 30s by sunrise. The main story this week will be below normal temperatures through the weekend as northwest flow aloft and the potential for cold frontal passages persists. As for tonight, temperatures will be a bit colder than they have been, lows will be in the lower 40s with light winds and clear skies.
as isolated to scattered showers continue under the encroachment of cold upper low pressure.
Coulston High pressure situated along the west coast will maintain dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend.
A very chilly air mass is over the Upper Midwest today, with surface temperatures in the 40s over much of MN/WI and the lower to mid 50s over Iowa and Illinois.
Baroclinic zone across Montana will move east with the trough and will support widely scattered showers across North Dakota Friday. A chance of light rain and slightly warmer temperatures Friday highlight the short term period. With warmer air pushing from the west, highs up to the mid 60s are forecast in the far west. Highs in the low 50s in the James River and Turtle Mountains.
An upper level trough remains parked over the Great Lakes. This NW flow ushers in cooler and drier air from Canada bringing our morning lows for the next few days down to near and below 40F. This combined with cold air advection and dew points in the low to mid 30s creates a favorable environment for frost for areas north of US36.
/Issued 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ A deep trough is continuing over the eastern half of the CONUS and is expected to continue to persist through the weekend with out CWA on the backside enjoying northwesterly flow. This will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions as well as mostly clear skies. Frost is not currently expected, but a couple of degrees cooler could trigger isolated patches of frost across NW AR by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will likely be the best day overall with light winds expected thanks to high pressure being over head.
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Cooler and drier air filtering into the region will keep VFR conditions and light northerly winds in place through the pd. Cold front has moved through all but our extreme southern zones late this afternoon with a cooler/drier airmass funneling into the region from the north. This airmass will allow for cool conditions once again tonight with lows ranging from the middle 40s north to near 50 to the lower 50s south. Deep longwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes southward through the Ohio and Tenn Valleys into the Lower Miss Valley will change very little through the short term portion of the forecast.