Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The first rounds of scattered convection are beginning to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and move toward the lower Texas coast as an inverted trough and mid- level low develop over northern Mexico. The northern Mexico trough will begin to lift northward on Wednesday which will favor another round of scattered convection, with better chances setting up for the northern ranchlands as opposed to the lower RGV tomorrow. Similar temperature trends can be expected for Wednesdayâs highs as well, ranging generally from the lower to middle 90s across Deep South Texas.
With the return of southerly flow, low-level temperatures will warm again and warmer high temperatures are expected today.
243 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 U/L ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will build over the Florida peninsula today and will hold over the region through the week and over the weekend.
123 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Typical summer time pattern will continue through the week with the Bermuda High ridging into the forecast area. High pressure aloft builds westward during the middle of this week. High pressure aloft will be over the Southeast U. Model ensembles develop lower H5 heights and a possible weak upper trough over the Northeast U. Disturbances rotating around this possible trough may lead to enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. But overall the low level moisture and low level jet setup are favorable and just as ideal as the last few mornings that saw stratus.
The remains of the upper low will bring some pops into the south and eastern cwa.
Upper level analysis high pressure over the desert southwest with an upper level trough digging into the eastern Dakotas. Temperatures will be back to near or below average levels briefly midweek before rising again late week into the weekend as ridging rebuilds over the Rockies and eventually slides into the Plains.
This will lift the warm frontal boundary even farther north, edging deeper moisture out of the forecast area. Rain chances will diminish Weds night and Thurs as weak mid-lvl ridging briefly builds across the region.
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The upper level trough that caused the rain and cooler temperatures over the past couple days will continue pushing off to the east of the area today. Morning lows in the low to mid 60s are also expected. Height rises and clearing skies will move in throughout today behind the departing trough. The warmest values will be in the upper 80s over the Osage Plains and far western Missouri areas that are farther removed from the departing trough.
The clouds linger over areas east of I-35 today thanks to the low pressure system over eastern MO being stopped in its tracks by high pressure building in off the East Coast. The low pressure system will finally move off to the northeast tonight, allowing for some ridging in the region.
Recent upper-level water vapor imagery showing the upper low making eastward progress out of the Missouri Valley with dry air across much of Kansas. Weak to moderate warm air advection around 850 mb tonight into early Tuesday for a warmer afternoon. Gusty south-southwest winds Wednesday will support an even warmer day with air temps in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100.
Due to this southerly wind shift, dewpoints tomorrow afternoon will fall into the mid 50s and cause temperatures to increase about 5 degrees warmer than previous days. A strengthening LLJ tomorrow evening into tomorrow night will result in slightly warmer low temps on Wednesday morning.
355 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A small upper level ridge settles over our area today bringing sunny skies and warming temperatures. Atmospheric flow has shifted to out of the southwest funneling in warmer and more moist air into the region.
With steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient instability present, thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of the trough axis late this afternoon, then drift eastward, potentially into west central and extreme southwest Kansas late in the evening/overnight hours. For tonight, look for lows down into the lower/mid 70s(F) for the most part. Will have to watch out for the slight chance of storms developing during the afternoon along a pre-frontal trof axis.
1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A persistent upper low with cold air aloft continues to produce scattered small showers, especially over the southeast half of the cwfa. The slow moving upper low and trough axis over MO will finally kick east late tonight and Tuesday with rising heights and warmer air moving in from the west. After a cool start in the low/mid 60s highs should reach into the 80s.
Northwest flow aloft will dominate the area as a large area of high pressure remains over the southwest United States with low pressure anchored in Hudson Bay.
226 AM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Upper-level trough is swinging through central Idaho this morning. The aforementioned trough will skirt to the north of the region but it does look like it will produce enough lift to promote a few isolated storms mainly around Island Park and Driggs. As this feature departs to the east, weak ridging builds back over the area allowing for lighter winds Wednesday with continued dry conditions.
For temperatures, I did not go too crazy about cooling off our northern CWA, although I did generally keep temps below 90s north of I-80 due to increased sky cover and cooler temps aloft. I expect t-storms to erupt along a lee side trough and migrate east tonight. Most models show ongoing activity Wednesday morning along a stalled or slowly moving cold front, although this activity may be on the decrease somewhat by mid-late morning, before refiring in a band in our southeast again late Wednesday afternoon and into the night, heading southeast. Needless to say that confidence is not the highest for Wednesday.
403 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Weak surface ridging now encompasses the area early this morning as the upper ridge moves into the Central Plains. For today and Wednesday, WAA will be on the increase allowing for warmer temperatures and an increase in low-level moisture. South to southwesterly surface winds increase the next couple days and turn breezy on Wednesday in particular as lee troughing deepens, aiding in the warm air and moisture advecting northward.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week, as the high weakens. Ridging aloft and at the sfc will extend and affect the Eastern Carolinas throughout this period. The ridging will be at it's peak strength through tonight, limiting the amount and strength of the diurnally induced convection across the ILM CWA. The westerlies sort of breakdown and/or elongate the upper ridge axis during Wed, with it becoming oriented NE thru SW, from offshore HAT to the NE Gulf of Mexico by the end of this period. Max temps both days will run in the lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s at the coast. Mid level ridge will become situated more to the south during the mid and late week period with heights dropping ever so slightly.
822 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A more typical summertime day expected as upper level ridging builds in from the northeast and the low level ridge remains north of the region today. /issued 243 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ U/L ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will build over the Florida peninsula today and will hold over the region through the week and over the weekend.
Weak surface ridging now encompasses the area early this morning as the upper ridge moves into the Central Plains. For today and Wednesday, WAA will be on the increase allowing for warmer temperatures and an increase in low-level moisture. South to southwesterly surface winds increase the next couple days and turn breezy on Wednesday in particular as lee troughing deepens, aiding in the warm air and moisture advecting northward.
2) Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region but an increase in the northerly gradient late today into Wednesday should focus the highest concentrations further south and west than recent days, thus modest relief for some in northwest Montana.
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A small upper level ridge settles over our area today bringing sunny skies and warming temperatures. Atmospheric flow has shifted to out of the southwest funneling in warmer and more moist air into the region.
Steering flow this morning remains out of the NE with the upper high center near Vegas. However that will be changing as the day progresses as the steering flow will weakens and becomes more easterly with the high moving toward the 4-corners.
An upper-level trough is positioned over the Quad State early this morning. Low pressure is moving northeastward towards Michigan, finally beginning to make its way out of the Midwest. With high pressure set up near the Carolina coast, southwesterly winds and tropical moisture will continue to move into the Quad State.
The upper level trough that caused the rain and cooler temperatures over the past couple days will continue pushing off to the east of the area today. Morning lows in the low to mid 60s are also expected. Height rises and clearing skies will move in throughout today behind the departing trough. The warmest values will be in the upper 80s over the Osage Plains and far western Missouri areas that are farther removed from the departing trough.
/issued 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The first rounds of scattered convection are beginning to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and move toward the lower Texas coast as an inverted trough and mid- level low develop over northern Mexico. The northern Mexico trough will begin to lift northward on Wednesday which will favor another round of scattered convection, with better chances setting up for the northern ranchlands as opposed to the lower RGV tomorrow. Similar temperature trends can be expected for Wednesdayâs highs as well, ranging generally from the lower to middle 90s across Deep South Texas.
High pressure ridging remains situated north of ECFL and will provide for a deep, but light onshore flow. Mid-levels a bit warmer (-7C to -8C at 500 mb), closer to seasonal, today following yesterday's upper air disturbance. High pressure ridging continues northward.
Satellite imagery shows a few mid and high clouds moving up from the southwest as a very weak trough develops along the West Coast. The Delta Breeze continues to spread cooling inland across the lower elevations, and current temperatures are running around 2-6 degrees cooler across the Central Valley compared to 24 hours ago and range from the mid 50s near the Delta to around 80 up at Redding.
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level trough that has brought multiple rounds of heavy rain the past couple of days is finally moving off to the east. Behind it, an upper-level ridge located over the Desert Southwest will attempt to nose back into west Texas today. Between stronger winds, a warmer airmass, and plentiful sunshine, high temperatures should reach into the low 90s this afternoon.
The associated ridge of high pressure makes a move from from the desert southwest to the central and northern Rockies and the adjacent high plains regions by the weekend.
At 200 AM, high pressure was located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a light onshore wind and temperatures generally in the lower 70's. 5 C so MaxT values should top out in the lower and mid 90's. Will trend MaxT a little cooler and PoPs a bit higher for Wednesday.
The synoptic setup features a fairly well-defined 850-700mb easterly wave which only in recent days has become convectively active, having amplified owing to acceleration of the flow along the southern periphery of the intensifying deep layer mean anticyclone centered between Bermuda and the Carolinas.
Nevertheless, PoPs were mainly updated for the next few hours to encompass weak echoes in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with continued focus on the higher terrain and southern areas. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 70 91 72 / 50 40 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 69 91 70 / 30 40 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 68 90 69 / 30 40 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 66 89 67 / 30 50 10 20 10.
South to south-southwesterly winds will kick in for Wednesday, helping to boost temps into the lower/mid 90s areawide.
Warmer, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon under mostly clear skies.
219 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 This afternoon we have the base of an upper-level trough moving across the area, triggering lines of showers and thunderstorms associated with small-scale vorticity maxima around the base of the trough. Cloud cover today is helping to keep temperatures a bit cooler, with temperatures now (2 PM) only in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will be close to this afternoon's highs, with highs only expected to top out into the low-to-mid 80s. As the upper-level trough moves off to the northeast, it leaves behind a stationary boundary that appears to drape right across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee.
Upper level analysis has shows high pressure over the southwest US, with weak ridging extending into the Rockies. The heavier rainfall will move east of the area late tonight, with lingering chances for showers and storms across most of the area late tonight and Wednesday as the trough moves across the northern Plains. Wednesday will be cooler with lingering showers/storms in the morning. After the trough moves well east of the region Wednesday night, warmer air will return for the rest of the week, and especially by the weekend, as ridging builds over the Rockies and eventually into the Plains.
High pressure builds back over the region on Wednesday, bringing drier and warmer conditions.
Winds will stay a bit elevated with the low level jet tonight, but gusts should end. High pressure centered near southern Nevada will attempt to build east over the next several days, however broad troughing over the North Plains and Great Lakes regions will only allow 500mb heights to increase from around 590dam to 592dam.
Warm and humid conditions will persist through the period with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, and highs tomorrow ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s.
1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A small upper level ridge settles over our area today bringing sunny skies and warming temperatures. Atmospheric flow has shifted to out of the southwest funneling in warmer and more moist air into the region.
With less cloud/precip coverage, temps will have a greater opportunity to reach the lower 90s tomorrow.
High pressure remains over California today, though it will begin to break down slightly and move east due to an upper trough forming in the Eastern Pacific. Temperatures are slightly cooler today than yesterday across the area, with the Delta Breeze keeping the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley near daily normal. Temperatures for more inland areas, including the mountains and northern Sacramento Valley, although cooler than yesterday, are still pretty hot at 5 to 15 degrees above normal. As weak troughing continues to form over northern California tomorrow, temperatures will continue to moderate, falling to near normal across the entire forecast forecast area.
10 inches along the ND/SD border into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, with the highest probabilities further south. Large ridge setting up to the west of the northern plains will drift very slowly to the east during last half of the extended fcst period and should keep the remarkably dry stretch going.
Texas is under a col in the upper pattern with ridging to the east and west and a trough to the north.
High pressure centered to the west will gradually expand eastward. After a couple of drier and warmer days through Wednesday, the pattern should revert to the slightly cooler and wetter one that has persisted throughout much of July.
1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The upper level trough that caused the rain and cooler temperatures over the past couple days will continue pushing off to the east of the area today. Morning lows in the low to mid 60s are also expected. Height rises and clearing skies will move in throughout today behind the departing trough. The warmest values will be in the upper 80s over the Osage Plains and far western Missouri areas that are farther removed from the departing trough.
The mid/upper-level trough will not be completely east of the region until around 06Z, so a few showers may linger well into the evening in the east. As the upper ridge builds over the region Wednesday, the warming column should keep the four state region dry.
(This evening through Wednesday) The upper high ridge across the Southwestern U. Tonight, should start to see the upper ridge break down, with a weak short wave trough starting to dig across the Rockies.
Upper trough out west incoming for the afternoon, and deeper moisture continues to stream up ahead. Upper level trough with moisture will work through middle TN this afternoon and evening.
232 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Early this afternoon, a low amplitude mid level ridge axis was located near the Montana/North Dakota border. A subtle wave will ride down the ridge in cyclonic flow aloft, which could spark off some more isolated showers and thunderstorms across pretty much all of western and central North Dakota in the late afternoon and into evening. Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to today, but maybe a touch cooler with more clouds present (highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s). The upper level ridge to our west amplifies slightly as it nudges closer.
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Deep moisture will remain across the region through Wednesday with the low level ridge axis to our north keeping an east to southeast flow (Regime 7 today becoming 2 on Wednesday) across the area.
Weak upper ridging will continue to dominate our region of the country through the short term and that will continue to mean very isolated diurnally driven convection Wed Aftn as well and very warm temperatures. Concerning temperatures, persistence is the best forecast tool under this weak ridging regime and with lower to middle 90s forecast later this afternoon, expect similar conditions once again Wed Aftn.
Winds will stay a bit elevated with the low level jet tonight, but gusts should end. Broad troughing over the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest, along with a weak trough rounding the northern periphery of the ridge will tighten the pressure gradient across the region increasing wind speeds and gusts.
2pm readings were mostly in the low-mid 80s with comfortable dewpoints/humidity. Otherwise, Wednesday will see some increased winds as the pressure gradient tightens up with an approaching cold front into the Midwest and central Plains.
The Upr OH rmns under deep southwest flow resulting fm a Midwest trough and Wrn Atlantic ridge. Rain chances will diminish Weds night and Thurs as weak mid-lvl ridging briefly builds across the region.
With the stronger winds, do expect warmer minimums heading into the morning hours.
Nevertheless, PoPs were mainly updated for the next few hours to encompass weak echoes in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with continued focus on the higher terrain and southern areas. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 71 89 70 91 / 60 50 40 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 89 69 91 / 40 40 40 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 87 68 90 / 50 40 40 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 87 66 89 / 30 30 50 10 20.
Despite a weaker upper trough presence across the CWA on Wednesday, the residual tropospheric moisture level will remain around 1. With continuing wet soils and rain chances, temperatures especially the highs will remain several degrees below climatology.
214 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Strong/Severe storms expected Wednesday, coming in 2 waves, with the second harboring the higher severe threat. Associated cold front looks to bisect the forecast area from northeast-southwest around 00z with other outflows from the early day storms likely wavering across the area (another potential storm focus).
Here at NWS Memphis we were among the lucky ones to see a brief shower that knocked our temperature down to 71 degrees, cooler than our morning low. Temperatures range from the low to mid 70s across the region at 3AM.
Slightly cooler today as a weak upper trough passes to our north.
Upper level troughing across the Tennessee Valley could aid in the coverage of convection this afternoon, but the effects should begin to diminish Wednesday as the trough lifts northward. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
An upper level ridge will be centered near the Four Corners region, with another ridge located over the southeastern U.
The region will once again be under the influence of an upper level trough that is across the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys today, that will aid in the formation of thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Although placement of the trough axis in conjunction with the region is not as favorable as it was yesterday, the region can still expect to see numerous storms today move from south to north across the area. Overall expect high temperatures to be slightly warmer today, with low 90s likely across much of the region. Overnight, expect lows to drop into the low 70s.
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Upper flow over the central Plains has taken a modest northwest character with an upper high to the southwest and stronger westerlies across the northern states. Decent lee cyclogenesis leading to mainly southerly winds and a warmer day for most locations with mid 90s reached in central Kansas. Continued cyclogenesis tonight leads to an increasing low-level jet and a warmer night under increasing cirrus. Temps should reach the lower 90s to near 100 though deep mixing allows RH values to drop into the middle 20s to middle 40s and heat indices near to not far above these values.
255 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Upper ridging will break down tonight as an upper trough moves into the Dakotas by morning. Temperatures will be suppressed under the upper trough and the rain and clouds with highs only in the 70s on Wednesday. In addition to the low pressure system, elevated smoke from fires in the western U. Mid-level ridging is progged to build into the region throughout this forecast term. However, models do continue to show a couple of mid-level s/w impulses working through the upper ridge and across portions of our region toward the end of the week.
1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level trough that has brought multiple rounds of heavy rain the past couple of days is finally moving off to the east. Behind it, an upper-level ridge located over the Desert Southwest will attempt to nose back into west Texas today. Between stronger winds, a warmer airmass, and plentiful sunshine, high temperatures should reach into the low 90s this afternoon.
303 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Upper trough was slowly progressing east across Indiana this afternoon and will finally move east of the state overnight. Satellite shows embedded MCV within CU field over central IL, likely remnant circulation of upper low. This feature along with trough and weak instability was helping generate scattered to numerous showers and a few isold tsra. Have finally removed all pops overnight with trough east and no good forcing. Also expect partial clearing with subsidence behind trough overnight and as diurnal cu dissipate. Will depend on proximity to backside of trough and any weak waves.
This warmer surge of air is expected pull in another bout of moisture and will nudge afternoon temps into the 90s with heat indices touching the upper 90s.
An upper-level low pressure trough will quickly slide across our area through the evening and nighttime hours. The associated ridge of high pressure makes a move from from the desert southwest to the central and northern Rockies and the adjacent high plains regions by the weekend.
The aforementioned front will sag further to the south this evening and become more diffuse as the parent trough shifts into the northeastern United States and a subtropical ridge of high pressure builds west into the Deep South.