Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WARM DRY WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. FAVORED THEM TOWARD THE COOLER CONSENSUS RAW MODEL NUMBERS. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN IF THAT SRN FGEN BAND CAN SETUP AND BECOME DOMINATE.
WITH THE RIDGE RETURNING TO THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE REBOUNDING.
123 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING A SPEEDING UP THE ONSET AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LOW.
211 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.
Today a few showers will linger over the mountains, but a brief ridge of high pressure starts building over the area causing fewer showers.
358 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY TEMPS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE HILLS.
125 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
326 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN STRONGER WESTERLIES COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE TAXAS PANHANDLE. TODAY UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY SUNNY AND RAIN FREE.
A relatively flat high pressure ridge over the west coast is bringing fair skies to the forecast area this morning. A warmer airmass has brought a little warmer temperatures some areas this morning while clearer skies have allowed some locations to run a bit cooler.
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
330 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST FROM TEXAS DOMINATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
305 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS STATES. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ROTATING JUST OFF THE GA COASTLINE BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA/GA/FL COASTLINES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SFC COLD FRONT, THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND, IS LOCATED. BY SATURDAY, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SIGNALED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIODS. UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO NWRN MO AND SERN IA. LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT NEAR LIBERAL KS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT FROM EASTERN MT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND CONDS AND STRONG COOLING IN ASSOC WITH THE HIGH. WITH THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. STILL RECYCLING COOL AIR AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MIGRATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED SW-NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE INHIBITOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE AROUND THIS MORNING. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW BEST COVERAGE INITIALLY OVER GULF AND ALONG ADJACENT COAST THIS MORNING ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
310 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A FEW AFTERNOON CU ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER AREA.
537 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS. /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX WITH THE AXIS TO THIS RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
IN SPITE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TOWN OF CRAIG MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPS BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FREEZE WATCH OR WARNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS ON TAP. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SAN JUANS SATURDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST.
213 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
306 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX WITH THE AXIS TO THIS RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
328 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 (Today and Tonight) Look for another hot and dry day across West Central Texas today, before another cold front brings cooler air and rain chances tonight.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO- JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WITH SOME COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND FREEZING.
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
330 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH POPS FORECAST FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NE MN AND COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR HAIL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FREEZING LEVELS DROP NEAR THE FRONT. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE A DRYING ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SRN MN. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 60S WITH A PERSISTENT LIGHT NWLY WIND MAKING IT FEEL JUST A BIT COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS,,, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF TAMPA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OFF THE GA COAST BY THIS TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEEPS MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. MAINLY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
325 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT IS POSSIBLE 2+ INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN AN ISOLATED AREA IF A STRONGER STORM CELL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE A QUICK TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAISE HEIGHTS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. BUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT CRAIG AND SURROUNDING COLD SPOTS DO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.
531 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
330 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK AND TSRA CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE.
414 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF SPEEDING UP THE ONSET AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OFF THE SERN LA COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM. LIKEWISE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES RIGHT ABOUT 12Z AS THE LOWS CONTINUE MAKING STEADY EWD/NEWD PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THEIR WAKE WITH MAXES TODAY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECTING A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLES TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR A DECENT RADIATING NIGHT.
1132 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND FLOW FROM UPPER LOW OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP WITH STRONG LLJ ALONG BACKSIDE OF IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX TONIGHT. /ISSUED 528 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER OVER SE TX.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL EXPAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST.
YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN TX. ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN STORE AS QUASI STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM N MS NEWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 25/06Z. BEST PROXIMITY OF SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MID STATE LOOK TO BE IN THE 24/06Z-24/09Z TIME FRAME.
Surface dewpoints in the low to mid teens, even a few single digits. As such, radiational cooling has allowed many locales to fall well below freezing as of midnight. Full sunshine, no clouds, and about 3-7 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
234 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1059 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AND A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH NE INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT.
We suspect this is also the case farther south into the higher terrain of Barry County. We expanded the Winter Weather Advisory earlier this evening to cover that changeover across the higher terrain along the plateau. Slushy accumulations up to an inch are still expected in this area, bu amounts up to two inches are not out of the question in the highest terrain. A strong upper level low in Northeast Texas was moving east this afternoon. No snowfall is expected through the evening hours as temperatures remain above well freezing. Also, colder temperatures along the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau could come into play.
251 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
ADDED FREEZING FOG TO SOME NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO.
156 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING AND BELOW.
1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST FROM ROLLA SOUTH TOWARD THE JAMESTOWN AREA WHERE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT. FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND WATERSPOUTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE LOW FINALLY CROSSES CLEARS OUT TOWARD SUNRISE.
338 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING CYCLONIC FLOW TO IOWA THROUGH TODAY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35-40 MPH. WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR EAST WILL BE USED TO ADJUST MAX GUSTS TODAY.
322 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS.
314 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS IN THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW. WHERE WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS. WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND ONE OF THE COOLER NIGHTS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN RECENT DAYS. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EAST TOWARDS MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THE LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS AROUND 50-60 KTS AND HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
404 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM.
932 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure will deliver dry and mild conditions through the rest of the work week. A weak weather disturbance is moving through the upper level ridge tonight. This will flatten the ridge a bit and result in high to mid level clouds but no precipitation. The increasing cloud shield and a little bit of wind tonight will keep temperatures slightly warmer than last night but still at or below freezing for much of the Inland Northwest. /Kelch 06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain entrenched over the Inland NW through this period leading to VFR conditions at all sites.
300 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 The upper low has passed well to the east as an upper ridge centered over the West Coast begins to build in.
338 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED IN NW MINNESOTA. THE WAVE THEN ELONGATES AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE GRADIENT WINDS AROUND AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. PACIFIC MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
300 AM MST WED FEB 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST.
STRONG S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER ADVANCING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING THERE THIS EVENING.
DOWNGLIDE WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
400 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Band of snow on the nw side of an upper level low over ne AR extends from the St. The band is associated with a trowal and deformation zone feature wrapping around the upper low. Accumulation has been more efficient in the higher elevation terrain where sfc temps have been just a bit colder.
248 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN WINDS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION TOMORROW.
REMAINS GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE QUICK PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE GRADIENT WINDS AROUND AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY.
1016 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY QUIET SHORT TERM CONTINUES WITH RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U. WE STILL HAVE ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE WRN EDGE OF THIS HITS THE NRN PORTIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW HYR MTN FLURRIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCOUR THE CLOUDS FM W TO E EARLY TO MIDDAY.
1245 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
345 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CELLS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE MOVING A FAIRLY GOOD PACE. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
342 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CELLS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE MOVING A FAIRLY GOOD PACE. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
406 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO OHIO TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SITTING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS THIS EVENING. AND THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DISCOURAGE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND CONFLUENT.
315 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 PATTERN TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST.
422 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.
147 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
318 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD.
401 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHUD DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. EVEN THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR. JUST SOME UPSLOPE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT COULD LINGER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT IN THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. ON MONDAY A LARGE BUT WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX WILL EXTEND NE OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
159 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREA HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BECOME MORE BROAD AS IT DOES SO. LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST RAISE A CONCERN FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THEREFOR HEAVY RAIN. LARGE UPR LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE. A SLOWLY DEEPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CU WILL STRUGGLE UNDER SUBSIDENCE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BUT WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALL LEAVE SE MI UNDER INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND AND LL WAA DUE TO SWERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONT.
A mid-upper level low, currently evident on water vapor satellite loops over South Carolina, will retrograde to near Tallahassee by 00Z this evening. As a result, model forecasts generally show an area of weak QG convergence in advance of the low - mostly across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. We placed the highest PoPs (40-50%) in the southeast part of our forecast area, with lower PoPs (25-30%) across the northwest. Highs should be near or slightly above normal in the lower 90s.
RH progs suggest this higher level moisture will diminish by this evening.
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.