Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
North winds and much cooler air is moving in on the back side the of the low, with MBG and PIR gusting to around 20kts. Cooler air will continue to push in from the northwest, with highs both Friday and Saturday topping out around 70 degrees. The main 500MB trough extending from Hudson Bay through southern Alberta this afternoon will slide into western ND Friday afternoon and finally exit to our east after daybreak Saturday.
500 mb ridging will gradually build over the RGV through the next 24 hours which will tend to lower down the deeper layer moisture values. Breezy conditions forecast again tomorrow, with winds from 140-150 degrees at 15kts with some gusts in the lower 20s. /issued 234 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated 500mb ridge across the western north Atlantic extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas and northeast Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight into Friday even as low level moisture remains high across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands. Winds will be breezy Fri afternoon as the pressure gradient increases across the lower TX coast Friday.
Cooler temperatures can be expected today under mostly cloudy skies, but dew points will remain elevated compared to the coming weekend. For tonight, continued chances for showers under large upper level trough. Fall-like weather compared to what we've seen lately is in store for Saturday as dew points fall through the 50s through the day, and northwest winds of 10-15mph bring in cooler air as highs will be limited to the upper 60s across much of the area. Expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and much cooler air than we're used to.
/issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper trough over the northern/central U. A sheared Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the western fringe of the ua ridge. Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat. A cold front is progged to move south into the area Saturday in the wake of the eastbound central Plains ua trough.
3 inches and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s through at least Saturday.
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the forecast area Saturday night. High pressure will remain over the forecast area tonight through the early part of Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will likely increase on Saturday afternoon as a cold front begins to approach the area.
625 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure will crest over the region today.
Storms will again favor the higher terrain early on, before drifting over the valleys late in the day. Looking upstream across Idaho, Montana and northern Wyoming we see much cooler conditions behind a strong front that is expected to drive south across our area by late this afternoon and evening. This push will drive the deeper moisture south, promising a drier and slightly cooler day on Saturday.
Surface analysis shows a cold front across nrn Neb into scntrl SD with temps in the mid 90s ahead of it at KICR. A second cold front is stretching from nw SD into ne WY with 70s across the far wrn SD plains and upper 50s toward KGCC. but that threat will quickly end toward the mid evening as cooler air pushes in. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s across most areas. and mid to upper 30s across the higher BH.
The highest risk will reside along and north of a Lake Andes to Mitchell to Madison and Marshall line. Friday: A rather unsettled and much cooler day is anticipated for Friday. Temperatures on Friday may be nearly 20 degrees cooler than those of today. NAM again looks to be a slow outlier among the various models for timing of the surface boundary/upper trough Friday night, and thus have generally favored blend of GFS/GEM/ECMWF for timing/trends as precipitation exits the region. That said, with faster movement of low level boundary to the southeast, models now showing a little bit of separation between any lingering convection in northwest Iowa, and an area of mainly showers west of I-29 with a trailing wave sliding down the back side of the trough Friday evening.
207 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2016 A weak area of low pressure over southern California will produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms today, mainly south of Highway 50.
146 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough over much of the northern CONUS, with the next wave to affect the northern plains currently over MT. The next upper wave will pass over the region today, bringing another round of showers/storms, breezy northwest winds, and cooler air. Highs will be well below average, ranging from the lower 60s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the lower 70s across south central SD. High pressure will move into the region behind this system. Dry weather and a warming trend will begin on Saturday, with highs in the lower 70s. Deep layer ridging will ensue Sun with waa continuing into Mon.
Strong high pressure aloft combined with low level offshore flow will result in hot weather across the area today. The high will weaken on Saturday, allowing onshore flow to return in the afternoon.
339 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 The main upper level short wave trough is entering central and eastern Montana early this morning. Tonight will see this thicker cloud deck and cooler air spread south along with a more north wind.
Although, will be watching the progression of the potent upper level trough which is currently digging south-southeast across southwest Canada and into Montana. Synoptic scale lift ahead of this trough will eventually rotate into the western Dakotas later today, with a rather large area of rain/showers progressing into the western CWA. The James Valley region towards the northern Coteau area may actually stay dry through the day and will have to await the arrival of the main upper trough later this evening before showers move into the area. Now that yesterday's cold front has brought in lower dewpoints, the air mass this afternoon will be much more stable. For Saturday, the upper trough will continue to push east, but eastern portions of the forecast area will remain in a steep lapse rate environment with some daytime heating.
Weak upper level troughing moving into the Central Plains tomorrow will aid in this consistent southerly moisture pump. Atmosphere was primed with high moisture content again and little influence from weak upper level ridging. For the weekend it looks like the upper level ridge along the Gulf coast and Florida will be slow to strengthen.
Weak short wave troughs moving through southwest flow aloft will continue to coincide with ample moisture remaining in place across eastern Kentucky to allow for a continued threat of scattered convection through the short term. Another short wave trough will approach early Friday morning, allowing for an uptick in rain chances towards dawn from the southwest. There will be another downward trend Friday evening, similar to this evening, before rain chances increase once again towards dawn Saturday morning out ahead of a deeper trough approaching from the northwest.
422 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 An upper level trough dipping into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. and associated surface cold front. As the upper trough and surface front push southward over the weekend, that band should likewise move southward into our neck of the woods.
A cold front will be charging south during the day tomorrow. The high resolution models are actually showing that the main front with the colder air will not arrive until the overnight hours, however a pre- frontal trough axis with a wind shift to the north will be pushing through in the afternoon. The low level winds will be veered enough ahead of the front such that it will most likely be detrimental to supercell structures. After the cold front passage late Friday Night, the weekend weather will be tranquil and cooler.
Upper air ridging across the Southeast CONUS and an upper air trough swinging East across the Central/Northern Plains on Saturday leads to Southwest flow aloft dominating across the Four-State region. Furthermore, a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough nearing Southeast OK may also be a focus for rainfall Saturday aftn.
1156 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion Vigorous upper level trough continues to dig south from Alberta into N-central MT this evening. Gusty N winds will gradually diminish over northern portions of the forecast area after midnight as high pressure settles over the region but may continue through the overnight period for areas S of I90. This precipitation will continue a southeastward track tonight as a strong cold front moves across the region. Axis of an upper trof extending from northern Manitoba through southwest Montana will swing across the area overnight. Snow levels will drop to near 7000 feet overnight with light snow a possibility over the higher peaks of Glacier National Park and over King's Hill.
Upper level flow will flatten somewhat through the period as upper level ridging weakens.
248 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Cooler drier air will work into the region in the wake of a cold front that pushed through the area. Temps should be noticeably cooler today and Saturday.
336 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will bring Gulf moisture into the Ozarks through today as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move into the Ozarks overnight tonight into early Saturday morning with precipitation expected across the region in advance of the front. THe cold front will move through the region during the morning hours Saturday and will move south into Arkansas by early in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, a warm and muggy night is expected with low temps in the low to middle 70s, and lower 80s along the immediate coast. On Saturday, an upper level trough will move into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The associated cold front will move southward across the state, but will remain north of our area.
227 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Main concern will be if thunderstorms can continue to develop along advancing cold front across eastern Colorado. Since deeper lift and less moisture will accompany these features, the lower/less chance/coverage will occur. Temperatures will be problematic due to cold front/cold air advection, thick cloud cover, and ongoing precipitation.
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 (Today and Tonight) The wet pattern continues across west central Texas through the short term as a weak shear axis or trough remains over the central part of the state.
At the upper levels, an amplifying trough will dip across the Northern Plains and down into the mid-Mississippi Valley while generally zonal flow remains aloft of the northern Gulf coast. At the lower levels high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Gulf through the period with a weak front to our northwest across the Ohio Valley and ArkLaTex. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Short term models are quite aggressive with QPF over the southwest zones during the afternoon and taper off after 00Z, so expecting the highest precip amounts to be south of I-40 and west of I-65 today. Moving into the day Saturday the large upper trough will progress across the midwest with the main axis crossing the MS River Valley into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon on Saturday. Being in a favorable location for lift and moisture transport ahead of the cold front, expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday.
A typical summertime pattern of upper level ridging and a weak surface pressure pattern will dominate the southeast states today. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values mostly in the lower 100s.
Some of these showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours as low level moisture increases as well as the low level jet.
408 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Current surface analysis places high settling into central Montana, while cold front stretches through the midwest into the central plains. Upper level analysis places low over eastern Hudson Bay with deep trough stretching into the northern plains. Broad area of showers have developed along/ahead of the trough over eastern into south central Montana, and continue to slowly shift into western North Dakota. rain shower activity will be on the increase, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where greatest broad scale lift is noted with the advancing trough. Chances gradually lessen overnight over the south central as the base of the trough pushes east- southeast. Low precipitation chances linger over the James River Valley with cyclonic flow in place as base of trough attempts to cut off as it pushes east.
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure will build into the region bringing fair weather into Saturday. Trof advances ewrd on Sat and begins to lwr hgts and incrs moisture in the area.
A cold front stretched from far northwest Ontario to the eastern Dakotas and was approaching the Northland from the north and west. North-northwest flow on Friday will begin to usher in cooler air into the Northland in the wake of the passing cold front. The 12Z NAM12 is an outlier, showing much more robust pcpn than other models because it seems to stall the cold front across the southern forecast area. In the extended the focus will initially be on the positively tilted trough axis at 500 hPa digging and deepening from the eastern ND into MN.
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure will crest over the region today.
Upper trough will move out of the northern Rockies today shifting into the Central Plains this afternoon. In response, showers/thunderstorms will likely develop along approaching cold front this afternoon with storms pushing into northeast Oklahoma by early evening.
Highs will reach the lower to middle 80s. A generally quiet night is expected with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front sweeps across the area. Assuming cloud cover can clear out, highs in the lower to middle 80s should be in store with a warm and muggy night as we await the approach of the advertised trough which will be moving through the eastern plains tonight. Main story will be approach of strong trough digging into the western great lakes at the start of the period. Previous forecast generally kept intact with trough and associated cold front set to move into western areas late Saturday afternoon and progress east Saturday night. but given strong and progressive nature of the trough have kept with previous trends.
A deep subtropical ridge complex remains entrenched across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. An elongated upper level trough stretches from the ENE to WSW across the southern Florida Peninsula and is readily apparent on water vapor imagery. Temperatures have "fallen" into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s.
A cold front will be bringing winds around to the north starting at KDHT and then for KGUY and KAMA. A cold front is expected to move into the DHT and GUY TAF sites by late Friday afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms may form along the cold front. All short range models have held up the next cold frontal passage slightly. It appears that Friday evening and night will be the best opportunity for highest pops areawide as the cold front moves sewd across the area. Like the previous cold front which zipped thru the fcst area about one week ago, this next cold front will likely behave in the same manner in that the atmosphere will dry out and stabilize somewhat behind it, and this is reflected in numerical weather models.
206 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 A trough of low pressure over the middle of the state will move to the coast Friday morning, then off the coast on Saturday.
Low Level ridge axis will produce a light wind flow turning onshore in a sea breeze near the coast by afternoon. Since the sea breezes will propagate inland from both coasts rather slowly given the proximity of the ridge axis, expect isolated showers/storms that develop as a result of boundary collisions to linger into the early evening, and remain over the interior.
405 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Current radar Mosaic and surface obs show the next cold front and associated upper level trough moving southward into northern Wyoming early this morning. expect this cold front to start pushing into Converse county. Short range and high res models in disagreement with the extent and intensity of precipitation as deeper convection forms just along the cold front this afternoon. shows temperatures above freezing through early Saturday morning. Will brief the day shift on this hazard but decided against a Hard Freeze Watch since it looks like more of a threat of frost with temperatures hovering within a degree or two of freezing in most locations.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large trough moving east across Canada into the Hudson Bay. Lee side troughing across the northern Plains States, in response to the Canadian trough, has already helped establish a frontal boundary from eastern South Dakota back into western Kansas with a warm front pointed east along the Iowa-Minnesota border.
1154 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weakening upper trough will work across the north this evening. Its associated cold front will provide some forcing across the Yampa Basin into the Park Range this evening before the brunt of the frontal forcing works onto the Front Range. Elsewhere storms will favor the higher terrain and move slower to the ENE off the ridges into the evening. Showers and small hail will favor the highest terrain.
Much of the shear in lagging behind the front behind the highest MUCAPE values. Forecast models are edgeing into two camps, the NAM and GEM are rather strong with a heavy rainfall across much of the local area with the low tracking across western Wisconsin. The ECMWF and the GFS take the low further to the northeast and don't deepen it until is over eastern Lake Superior, which means less rain for the local area. Cooler air will also arrive with the low pressure system, making it feel more like autumn a times.
123 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal flow through most of the nrn CONUS between a trough over nrn Manitoba and a ridge through the southeast CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from nw Ontario through the nw MN into nrn South Dakota with srly flow ahead of the front over the upper MS valley and nrn Great Lakes. Friday, The cold front is expected to sag into Upper Michigan and provide the focus for additional shra/tsra development as daytime heating increases. The only outlier is the NAM which has a much more Fall-like look to it with a deepening low pressure system developing over WI and lifting across the U.
The high res models are showing widespread rainfall between 0. By Saturday morning, area should be on the back side of the upper trof, clearing skies from northwest to southeast and bringing a period of gusty winds through on Saturday morning as it passes.
The airmass will continue to dry from north to south through today and tomorrow, as a dry cold front moves through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
High pressure from the east will move in and remain in control. Temperatures will be very near the normals, in the lower 90s through the weekend with rain chances each afternoon.
435 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016 Upper ridging over the Gulf and troughing in the lee of the Rockies will keep the moist southerly flow in place today. Rain chances remain in the forecast and increase across the north as upper trough swings out through the Plains Saturday.
May include a pre- 1st period to account for the higher precip chances the remainder of the afternoon.
NE-SW oriented upper level trough will move south across Montana today. It will pass through Northeast Montana this morning and gradually push the main band of precipitation ahead of the trough to the south. High pressure moves into the area tonight and Saturday with dry weather. Highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees warmer than today.
142 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure builds down from southeastern Canada through Friday night, then moves offshore on Saturday.
Temperatures will be begin to warm once again across the Northern Rockies for Saturday, as high pressure develops.
448 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Summer will take a break for the next couple days as a cool airmass has moved in from the north and an upper level trough will be overhead through tonight. Mostly cloudy skies and winds out of the north will keep temperatures some 15 degrees cooler than normal this afternoon. Regardless, enough moisture is going to be present for the dynamic forcing from the upper level trough to produce shower activity through the day. This may produce a conditionally unstable airmass that is able to produce showers if the low level upslope remains strong enough.
1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Cold front has pushed into northwest Nebraska already. A prefrontal trough across western Nebraska has been the focus for some scattered showers. Also some showers have popped up behind the cold front. Main focus is the passage of the strong cold front tonight and to a lesser extent the prefrontal trough. Behind the front cooler air settles across the region however models continue to show some instability along with qpf. Highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler with forecast following close mos guidance in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Mean upper level troughing will persist over the northern plains over the next ten days. A southern stream upper level trough will move from the southern Rockies toward the southern high plains by mid this week. The first of these systems will pass across western Kansas today and tonight with a strong cold front.
This afternoon the coverage should dwindle across the south, as the low chances spread northward through the entire area. Given the mid and upper-level forcing with the trough, and the surface boundary in the vicinity, some thunderstorms are likely to develop, especially over the northern half of the area Saturday afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday):500 mb ridging will remain in place over Gulf of Mexico.
609 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes tonight dragging a strong cold front across the forecast area. A trough will swing across the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
641 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes tonight dragging a strong cold front across the forecast area, ushering in more seasonal conditions. A trough will swing across the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures at or below freezing for all areas appears likely. /issued 250 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ It has been a while since we have seen freezing temperatures in some of the forecast area, but we will see one tonight across most of the area.
The water vapor imagery did indicate the dry slot had worked into eastern WI where the precipitation had changed mainly to freezing drizzle or drizzle. Gradually cooler air associated with the trough should keep precipitation type as all snow over central WI, while the wintry mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow over eastern WI will eventually turn to all snow later this evening as the dry slot exits to the east. Min temperatures will range from 10 to 15 degrees north-central WI, to the lower 20s near Lake MI. Otherwise, slowly improving conditions are expected by Saturday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds toward the western Great Lakes region. Max temperatures will be below normal for a change with readings only in the lower to middle 20s north, middle to upper 20s south.