Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper longwave trough axis was currently rotating over western Texas, progged to shift east later today. As this trough tracks over the Great Lakes region this afternoon, it will surge a weak cold front southward into northeast Kansas during the late afternoon. Despite the strong mixing of the boundary layer to 900 MB, the cooler temps aloft and increasing mid level clouds result in highs in the lower 50s. This will also keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 20s.
A WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS AND HAVE ONLY SPRINKLES MENTIONED WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. DECENT WAA AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH TODAY AND WENT WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NWRN MN INTO CO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE STATE TODAY.
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESSING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A STRENGTHENING 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUT NOT INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF SMITH SHOAL. A DEFORMED CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY SLICES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER KEYS.
252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE NEW GUIDANCE IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
1134 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 BASE OF UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO SE TX.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT. SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U. THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015 Have updated the forecast to slow the clearing trends and lower the highs as a result. High temperatures will range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will prevail this afternoon. Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 40s.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO THE WEST OF THEM. THIS WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
1221 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE. STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BREAK DOWN.
PATCHY RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF I-35 AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RAINS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS THE TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH INTO TEXAS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE SATURDAY.
TEMP STRUCTURE SUCH THAT PCPN TYPE LARGELY LIQUID ALTHOUGH A MIX STILL VERY MUCH IN PLAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE HIGHLAND RIM AS H85 CLOSED LOW OPENS AS MOVES JUST TO OUR SE LATE TODAY. RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND REACHES EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY 03Z. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MID STATE, WITH THE CHANGE-OVER LIKELY TO OCCUR AT CKV AROUND 02Z, AND AROUND 06Z AT BNA AND CSV.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S. BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER.
AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS TX. AS THE TROF CONTINUES EWD AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY BECOMES CUT OFF. /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO AND SFC TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES F. ANY SNOW THAT MAY BE FALLING WILL MOST LIKELY MELT IN THIS LOWEST LAYER PRIOR TO REACHING THE SFC. BUT WITH SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING NO ACCUMULATIONS AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORM WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP. COLDER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
142 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ THE GUSTY FRONT MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY IS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR BEHIND IT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE IT HASN'T DONE MUCH UPSTREAM. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -18 OR -19 DEGREES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MAY HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THANK FOR A WARM AND SUNNY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE TODAY AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
JD/02 /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
Weak surface ridging and clear skies tonight look to set up some decent conditions for radiational cooling. Because of this have tended to go with the coolest MOS guidance or a degree cooler. This weak ridge moves east of the area during the day Monday allowing south and southwesterly winds to pick up and advect some warmer air into the region. There looks to be good mixing of the boundary layer again so highs in the lower to mid 70s appear on target and have not made any major changes to the going forecast.
THE MODERATION TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID.
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY EASTWARD. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER MON NIGHT. FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING MIXING/SURFACE GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. KRSL AND KSLN WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS AS WIND SPEEDS AROUND 850 MB WILL PROVIDE HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
/ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND TSRA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06-10Z. THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. YET AGAIN BRINGING WARMER.
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 3 FEET TO START THE WEEK.
HAVE ELEVATION SHADOW IN THE LOWS OVERNIGHT. SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN THE GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE.
1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO WI THIS AFTN. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW- MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY EASTWARD. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS.
1042 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST.
908 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
1031 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - NEAR BREEZY NORTH TO EAST WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH SPREADS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON MON.
OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON MON.
1137 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH MONDAY.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
1237 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH DRIER MIDLVL AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WERE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TODAYS TEMPERATURE TODAY WERE COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS TYPICAL OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. LEADING BAND OF PCPN IN ISENT LIFT ZONE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE MAY STAY N OF THE FCST AREA ENTIRELY. BUT A BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED NGT/EARLY THU AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER CO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.
WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM. NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
1132 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES OF SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
852 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH MONDAY.
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT.
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015 A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo. Winds were also tweaked slightly to match the current position of the cold front. /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south across the area this evening. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
CURRENTLY COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING RANDOLPH COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE MODERATION TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
759 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST.
Sfc analysis shows the cold front has barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging back in the South Plains. WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the moment. Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to normal Monday.
/ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
910 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.
704 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER MON NIGHT. FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING MIXING/SURFACE GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ THE GUSTY FRONT MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY IS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR BEHIND IT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015 /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south across the area this evening. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 POTENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS FROM MN INTO WI THIS AFTN. ANY LINGERING PRECIP HAS SHIFTED E OF THE CWFA INTO ERN WI AND REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE HIGH PRES RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A MODERATING TREND TNGT INTO MON DUE A WARM AIR RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THOUGH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TNGT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW- MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
/ISSUED 735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo. Winds were also tweaked slightly to match the current position of the cold front. /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south across the area this evening. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT.
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
806 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY MIDDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
855 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LAGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE STRONGEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF AREA. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER REFREEZING AFTER THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE EXPECTED. BUT WAS RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE LATE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. SURE BUT STEADY FLW ALOFT TRANSITION XPC THIS PD AS HGT RISES ACRS THE ERN US BUILD AFT MON AND IN CONCERT W/ROCKIES MEAN TROUGH DVPMNT. HWVR DETAILS ASSOCD/W PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ALG THE US/CANADA BORDER REMAIN FICKLE AS SERIES OF SW TROUGHS GENERALLY AMPLIFY EWD EVERY FEW DAYS. ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z OR 04Z AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015 CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT.
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES.