Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridge should be building again over the region so this should limit convection again.
Radar and 00z NAM support this as convection has sputtered along the cold front from south central NE into central KS despite the presence of a 40-45kt h8 jet as noted in the latest VWPs. airmass is capped east of the cold front. A cold front was moving through central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, and this feature will begin to slow this evening as it approaches southeast Nebraska into central Iowa as the upper support lifts northward and the flow becomes parallel with the boundary.
912 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will slowly move offshore through Tuesday. A diffuse warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
Stacked surface and upper low is currently over Southern Saskatchewan this evening. Most of the precipitation overnight will be near the Canadian border close to the low. Forrester A well developed vertically stacked low pressure system is currently overhead, and continues to drive widespread precipitation and gusty northwest winds. Tuesday and Tuesday night cyclonic flow on the backside of the low now over southern Manitoba will keep a few showers going, mainly across far northeast Montana.
The low level jet and resulting moisture transport increases later tonight along the MS valley. This may increase thunderstorms and showers again along the upper trough axis, and could enter the TN valley very late tonight or early Tuesday morning. Thus, have kept rather mild low temperatures going in the lower 70s.
857 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region, will slide east and off the coast Tuesday morning.
Tonight THROUGH Tuesday A cold air mass over western Wyoming is expected to produce some freezing temperatures in Jackson Hole in Teton county and the upper Green River Basin in Sublette county where Freeze Warnings have been issued. The western valleys should see some freezing temperatures and areas of valley fog are expected.
(Issued 350 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016) Analysis this afternoon shows a rather vigorous trough along the U. /Canadian border near the Montana/ND border with downstream ridging over the Great Lakes. A broad but relatively flat ridge spanned much of the Southern CONUS, while a weak, closed upper low was present over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
747 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas through the week as high pressure remains southeast over the Atlantic. Tonight: Fairly quiet conditions are expected as the area remains situated between Atlantic high pressure centered off the Southeast coast and a trough of low pressure inland.
Dewpoints currently in the low to mid 70s, light southerly winds, and increasing cloud cover should help keep temperatures up higher than previously thought tonight.
Meanwhile an elongated subtropical ridge axis centered from the southern plains westward along the US/Mexico border region keeps monsoonal moisture suppressed well south of the region. However, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to keep moisture suppressed well south of the region through at least the upcoming weekend. Southwest winds will increase tomorrow as a weak trough grazes northern Utah, and this may produce brief periods of critical fire weather conditions in some isolated spots.
905 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 The upper-level cyclone continues to spin over southern AR this afternoon, drifting slowly east. Weak upper low across the area.
718 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 06Z TAF Cycle A weak cold front should slide across the Panhandles tonight and Tuesday morning before dissipating by Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 207 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Strong high pressure centered aloft near southeast AZ/southwest NM will continue to exert a dry, subsident influence on deep south TX through the period.
/issued 905 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ The upper-level cyclone continues to spin over southern AR this afternoon, drifting slowly east. Weak upper low across the area.
/Issued 358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ This afternoon an upper level closed low was positioned near the Montana/North Dakota/Canada borders or fairly close to Williston North Dakota. Underneath high pressure.
923 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Biggest problem for Tues is whether there will be any shra and, if so, how much of an area will they cover? Have decided to add about 10pct to the higher elevations. 590 dam upper-level ridge in place over the region Monday will gradually slide eastward through midweek, allowing moisture to slowly work in from the SW and making above normal temperatures feel more uncomfortable.
The lower ceilings should mix out by late Tuesday morning with VFR conditions prevailing in the afternoon.
649 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An approaching cold front will provide a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening across central KS. Convergence within the trough axis should be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition during the afternoon/early evening hours across south central KS and pops were increased across portions of central/south central KS.
825 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak surface boundary across the central Midlands will continue moving northward tonight and further northward into NC Tuesday, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north some into our region. The upper ridge will weaken some late this week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. The upper ridge will continue to build slightly over our region, while the surface boundary continues to shift slightly farther to the N and NE and set up mainly just to the N/NE of our area Tuesday.
Once debris cloud cover over the interior dissipates, mostly clear skies expected for the rest of the overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas.
702 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. A warm front extended eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of this area of the region rain free this afternoon.
1024 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Dry weather will continue tonight under departing high pressure.
1235 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will slowly move offshore through Tuesday. A diffuse warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
The 19Z sfc analysis shows the SD low centered from Faulk through Beadle to Hutchinson Counties, with a trough extending east near the Cheyenne River and Cherry Creek. Finally starting to get some better clearing across central SD this afternoon, which will result in better mixing and increasing westerly winds behind the cold front.
719 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Southeastern Michigan placement within the main mid to upper level ridge axis will keep quiet aviation weather in place. Temperatures throughout the lower portion of the column will increase a couple more degrees, supporting a push to 90F for highs.
Temperatures are generally running a little warmer over the interior this evening but cooler air in the Bay Area should eventually help to cool temperatures off into the upper 50s to lower 60s for most valley areas. A trough deepening over the west coast tonight into Tuesday morning will help to keep a delta influence into the Sacramento region Tuesday morning. The trough begins to move east during the day with zonal flow aloft across the region and 850 mb temperatures eventually warm slightly over today's values.
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Cold frontal boundary located across across North Central KS at this time. Increased convergence from the low level jet will probably lead to convection along the boundary becoming more numerous after midnight. Ketcham An approaching cold front will provide a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening across central KS. Convergence within the trough axis should be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition during the afternoon/early evening hours across south central KS and pops were increased across portions of central/south central KS.
Weak mid and upper trough insitu over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Mid and upper trough lifts northeastward tonight so will keep pops going with overnight lows down in the lower 70s with mid and upper 60s on the plateau. Upper trough axis will remain just west of the mid state through the taf period. At that time, amplification of the aforementioned upper trough is expected.
1050 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Upper level low over southern Saskatchewan will continue to move slowly northeastward and away from the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. Isolated/scattered showers on the backside of the low are moving from northwest to southeast across portions of north central Montana and are expected to continue through the night.
This will translate to another windy day in our east again Tuesday, though not to the magnitude of today as the low continues to slowly pull away. Potent upper low over northeast Montana this afternoon with strong gusty winds across the region but rainfall is on the wane across southern Montana and northern Wyoming. This low is moving northeastward and will be in southern Manitoba by Tuesday afternoon leaving below normal heights in its wake but overall trend is for a quieter weather pattern the next few days. It will be warmer with much more sunshine but temperatures will still be below normal by a few more degrees.
933 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region, will slide east and off the coast Tuesday morning.
Thereafter could see another round of convection tomorrow afternoon KLFT/KARA where lift/moisture are progged to be a little better in vicinity of weak trof/shear axis aloft. Aloft, a SW to NE oriented mid/upper level trof off the TX coast extending across E TX/W LA. Radar showing only ISO SHRA across the coastal waters/SW LA, with SCT SHRA/TSRA over Lower Acadiana and the lower Atchafalaya Basin where the best moisture/lift east of the trof has predominated this afternoon.
Upper trough remains over the MS river valley tonight and actually amplifies slightly overnight. Upper trough axis will remain just west of the mid state through the taf period. At that time, amplification of the aforementioned upper trough is expected.
917 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Upper trough remains over the MS river valley tonight and actually amplifies slightly overnight. Upper trough axis will remain just west of the mid state through the taf period. At that time, amplification of the aforementioned upper trough is expected.
1035 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. High pressure over the area this evening. Biggest problem for Tues is whether there will be any shra and, if so, how much of an area will they cover? Have decided to add about 10pct to the higher elevations. 590 dam upper-level ridge in place over the region Monday will gradually slide eastward through midweek, allowing moisture to slowly work in from the SW and making above normal temperatures feel more uncomfortable.
900 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 new marine discussion Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal away from the coast by the middle of the week as high pressure aloft builds into the region. Low pressure aloft may build back into the West Coast this upcoming weekend, supporting cooler conditions. Forecast worked out well today everywhere except the Central Coast where max temps were quite a bit cooler than fcst as the sea breeze was a little quicker to arrive than anticipated.
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Expect IFR to MVFR ceilings to develop overnight into early Tuesday behind a cold front. Otherwise, could see some patchy fog overnight, mainly near and just ahead of the cold front. However, IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are expected to develop behind a cold front late this. A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing an end to the warm weather for a while.
A cold front will move across the area Tuesday afternoon. and maintains in overnight through mid-morning Tuesday ahead of the cold front over Cntrl OK that will continue to drift SE overnight.
There may be occasional light mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower elevation communities will remain primarily dry.
As the Low pressure wave continues its out of the lower Mississippi river valley today into tonight, it will fill and lose some of its northward extent of instability that makes the inclusion of thunder a possibility. After a rainy/drizzly/foggy night tonight, the Low lifts on out/across the Commonwealth late tonight-early tmrw. A trailing cold front then makes its dive southeastward out of the northern stream, and continues to act upon the lingering/residual moisture here for a chance of showers through the day tmrw.
320 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 The change to a colder pattern is literally at the doorstep this morning as the initial cold front is moving southward through the Panhandle, oriented WNW-ESE along a south of Dalhart to near Childress line at 08Z. The high temperature forecast will be tricky with uncertainty regarding frontal progression and duration of stratus. The best push of cooler air will be southward through the Rolling Plains, although there will be some push into the South Plains. For now have trended toward a consensus of short term guidance which is generally toward the lower end of the range in the objective guidance.
Thus slightly cooler conditions are expected further north (highs around 60), while lower to mid 60s should still be attainable further south.
311 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 The cold front has moved through the forecast area ushering in plenty of cold air advection. The snow could very well be glazed over with all of the freezing drizzle on top of it lately.
This should become more extensive or continue for much of the night with little change atmospheric-wise until a cold front moves thru later tonight. Parts of the 12z expiration area may need to be extended deeper into Tuesday morning depending on how far the cold front gets and how successful it is at advecting drier air in. Tonight we will be stuck between the system to the south and the cold front to our north. Cold front will push through tomorrow morning with temperatures falling through the day. Chance of rain remains in the forecast for tomorrow as models continue to show potential of some light rain or showers near or just behind the cold front tomorrow.
332 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Approaching low pressure will provide a period of rain today.
1146 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Widespread rain is expected through the overnight as a warm front advances slowly north through the area.
Across the Plains, a cold front is forecast to back westward tonight bringing increased moisture and colder air to the region. In addition, sounding profiles indicate patchy light freezing drizzle may be possible by morning.
A persistent westerly flow aloft will lead to periods of considerable cloudiness over the region through much of the week while significant snowfall will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra. Strong winds have been somewhat spotty and intermittent today but every now and then we see observations verifying the advisory and we also got a report from near Bishop, California of a gust to 65 mph this afternoon, verifying the high wind warning there. I opted to keep the high wind warning and wind advisories going although they are a bit marginal as mentioned in previous discussions.
This would support the potential for a few thunderstorms as the trough axis shifts eastward. As the cold front passes this evening, cold advection will kick into full gear with temperatures taking a dive through the night.
1249 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Approaching low pressure will provide a period of rain today.
A strong cold front will be pushing through the area today, followed by much cooler and drier air.
weak high pressure had settle across the region this morning. patchy dense ground fog had developed due to the warm moist saturated grounds coming in contact with the cooler air.
The inverted trough axis over the southeast early this morning will quickly push east. High pressure extending back across the northern plains will nose in bringing increasing northwest winds early beginning this morning out west and in the east by late morning. Temperatures north Madison are hovering close to the freezing mark, so some slick roads are possible there.
light shower activity may ramp up once again between 00z and 06z as a cold front sweeps through the area.
The main story this evening will be an arctic cold front currently located over Central KS dropping south, leading to falling temps and gusty north winds overnight into Tue. Say goodbye to the warm temps for a few days, as the arctic high pressure drops temps initially into the lower 30s to upper 20s on Tue with max temps struggling to reach the lower 20s by Wed/Thu. At best, think light amounts (less than an inch) or a dusting of snow accumulation, given the high snow to liquid ratios expected (ie, fluffy snow). Ketcham Cold front continues to moving roughly on schedule, but clouds have been a bit lower/persistent in wake of front than previous thought.
With the high pressure building in, winds will continue to light. While the high pressure will building over much of the area, down into Wyoming, westerly flow will continue to bring in moisture and energy.
A cold upper level trough extending from the eastern Pacific through the northern Rockies will bring areas of snow across northern Utah tonight.
Some fog also remains behind the precipitation within the baggy pressure gradient associated with the inverted trough. 09Z surface obs indicate improving conditions farther west into MN/IA and do expect improving visibilities through sunrise as the inverted trough moves east. The upper trough currently over the northern plains will rotate through the region tonight with low-level cold air continuing to funnel southward into the region. Could see a few flurries with the passage of the upper trough, but the main story tonight will be the cold temps.
Over the next several hours, the warm front should seemingly reset further south thanks to all of the convective contamination. Brief improvement may be possible late afternoon/evening at the northern TAF sites but this will be short-lived as a cold front and associated post-frontal stratus move in.
Higher rainfall totals are expected closer to the low track, but in general most sites should see between a half inch and in inch. Models are still pointing toward a second round of rain as the reinforcing cold front crosses the region later in the day Tuesday and into the overnight hours.
Patchy light drizzle will also be possible after midnight across northeast Oklahoma behind arctic cold front.
430 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 High pressure will move east of the area today.
However, due to a warm and moist airmass left behind and lacking any mid level cloud cover am expecting areas of drizzle/patchy light rain and fog to form this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
1035 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 For the 06Z TAFs: Main change from the 00Z TAFs was to bring in the lower ceilings sooner. SW winds will slowly shift to the northwest during the overnight period ahead of our next cold front. Going into the day on Tuesday, a cold front will work south across the Panhandles. The cold air will be quite shallow below 700 hPa in-conjunction with 700-250 hPa zonal mean flow, there is no synoptic driving force in the wake of the cold front for good CAA.
The actual cold front is still about 24 hours away and as it pushes through the mid-state, we should see some more light rain.
This disturbance will contribute to a cold front entering the CWA/MSA Tuesday night.
Ahead of the high pressure a cold front located in east central KS will continue southeastward allowing the cold dry air to filter south. Model guidance is suggesting that the afternoon high temperatures will not warm much higher than the lows this morning especially in east central KS.
Warmer temperatures continue to nose toward the forecast area this afternoon, with the 2pm observations ranging from 49 at Topeka to 63 at Salina, with lower 50s reported from Emporia to Garnett. Meanwhile the northern counties have stayed socked into the clouds and drizzle for much of the day with temperatures in the low to middle 40s.
Responsible for the snowfall, a mid/upper level low has progressed northeastward and strengthened through the day.
Breezy northwest winds and morning cloud cover will make the temperature difference from yesterday feel even sharper, and cold air will only continue to build in over the next several days as chilly high pressure settles over the region.
1046 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 H500 hand analysis is showing an anomalously strong blocking ridge over the Eastern Pacific extending Eastern Alaska and the Yukon.
This low will continue to track to the northeast today, moving into Ohio by mid day and well into the northeastern U. However, more showers will develop ahead of a strong cold front that will move through this afternoon and early evening.
Current visibilities are ranging from 1-3 miles over eastern portions of central ND to 3-7 miles along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
Temperatures will also remain cooler than normal on Tuesday across the region. A weak, passing trough will work with residual moisture to produce some light showers along and west of the mountains into tonight.
and maintains in overnight through mid-morning Tuesday ahead of the cold front over Cntrl OK that will continue to drift SE overnight. A cold front will begin moving through the area after 03/18z.
The winds will be light tonight and become north to northwest at around 10 knots Tuesday as a cold front moves south across the area. The winds will be light tonight and become north to northwest at around 10 knots Tuesday as a cold front moves south across the area. /issued 351 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The main weather item in the short term will be the cold front that arrives on Tuesday. For tonight, clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area, with light winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s. The cold front will enter the Big Country Tuesday morning and will move south across the area during the day, clearing far southern counties around sunset.
The upper-level cyclone is moving east across the Mid-South at this time and we'll see this trend continue overnight. Winds will gradually come around from the west as a weak cold front moves across the CWA. /issued 333 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a compact, nearly closed upper low over west central AR, lifting northeast. Surface analysis showed a 1005mb low pressure over west central AR. Looking beyond tonight, an Arctic cold frontal passage appears on track Tuesday evening.
1027 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Updated forecast to include a mention of patchy freezing drizzle, primarily east of Highway 25. Upstream observations have indicated some very light freezing drizzle across western Nebraska and think there could be a brief period of this along and immediately behind the passing cold front. A Special Weather Statement may be needed if freezing drizzle is observed and reports of icing are received. Cold front will move through the area this evening with winds becoming northwest and increasing a bit. Might see some lingering fog and freezing fog near the front, but should be more patchy in nature with increased winds and associated mixing. Wind chills bottom out at around 10 below, slightly warmer than advisory criteria.