Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area today and Tuesday. Another round of windy and cooler weather is likely later this week and into the weekend. The upper low circulation is over far southeast Coconino County this morning and is slowly moving east. This will change the storm direction through the day as the storms circulate around the center of the low. The main weather maker over the next 36-48 hours will be an upper level low slowly drifting over northern Arizona. Cooler air aloft will create enough instability for scattered shower and thunderstorm development the next couple afternoons. Convection will be most favored over the high terrain with lightning and gusty winds as the primary hazard.
The spatial coverage of showers/thunderstorms should diminish by late Tuesday afternoon, as the low-level jet weakens and an amplifying mid-level ridge builds northward into the southeastern CONUS.
A robust cold front arrives early Tuesday, bringing much cooler temperatures for the middle to end of the week.
127 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Large area of high pressure remains centered along the Eastern US. with pronounce ridging extending westward thru the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. At the sfc, high pressure continued to dominate the eastern states, with a ridge axis continuing to extend back through the Great Lakes. The action in the nrn stream gets pushed further north into Canada, as upper ridging strengthens in srn Canada/Great Lakes region. High temperatures today will largely be in the mid and upper 70s, cooler near the lakeshores. Folded over omega type ridge moves across the region through the day Tuesday.
Large area of high pressure remains centered along the Eastern US. with pronounce ridging extending westward thru the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Weak moisture-starved cold front is clipping Upper Michigan attm.
Elongated surface ridging extending in from the mid-Atlantic states and influence from the midlevel ridge to our west has kept conditions dry and quiet locally. Highs this afternoon peak in the mid 70s away from the lakes where a southeast breeze keeps conditions a bit cooler. Lower clouds dissipate tonight with lows dipping to the lower 50s amidst the relatively dry air mass. This again leads to cooler temps downwind of the big lakes, otherwise temps look to climb a few degrees higher than today's max readings - to the upper 70s to around 80 - as 850mb temps moderate slightly.
240 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue for the remainder of the short term period of the forecast. Isold shra/tsra possible across the higher terrain of north Georgia tomorrow afternoon, otherwise dry conditions. NListemaa In short, the upcoming week will be dry with temperatures becoming gradually warmer each day. Upper ridging remains the dominating factor through the forecast period, building overhead through late week with the axis gradually shifting westward into the Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
However, with strong high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft wedged into eastern portions of the CWA, much of this activity will steadily erode the further east it treks of the Interstate 55 corridor.
1237 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
238 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will gradually build in from the north over the next several days.
255 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 After a few more showers today, high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Weak high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast today will keep the overall pattern quiet. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s this afternoon as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds in from the west tonight and tomorrow. The upper ridge axis moves overhead on Tuesday which will allow for large scale subsidence across the entire area.
1226 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Low pressure remains in place across western Kansas with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri and into Illinois. Low level flow will continue to increase this evening as the low level jet ramps up, with the core of the jet centered east of the Mississippi. This will keep at least scattered showers in the forecast through the night, with the highest chances across Illinois. BSH The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the week, with the upper ridge across the eastern US expanding and retrograding. Moisture moving northward ahead of a low pressure system along the Kansas-Missouri border has been brining waves of showers and low ceilings across all terminals this morning, and will continue to do so through the forecast period.
Warm air advection ahead of the low is aiding in maintaining cloud cover CWA-wide and scattered showers north of the boundary.
Tuesday night should be mostly dry, but the chances for rain will increase from the south late at night as low pressure drifts north. Went on the warmer side of guidance Tuesday night with a southerly wind and a decent amount of clouds.
Big bubble no trouble might be an understatement as high pressure centered over the southwestern Atlantic will remain fully in control through the next 24 hours and even into the short term. The western periphery of this ridge will continue to be west of I-65 leading to the continued slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm with highs mixing out into the low 80s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s near the coast.
Models earlier this afternoon were in good agreement with an upper level disturbance, evident from the 400 mb PVU, lifting northeast across southwest Kansas late tonight as a weakening 500mb upper low slowly moves east across New Mexico. A surface cold front/stationary front is forecast to extend from southeast Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas with a moist upslope flow/instability axis being present just north of this boundary.
350 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Tonight and Tuesday: As the forecast area remains fixed between troughing to our west and a building ridge to our east, weak disturbances will continue to lift northeast across the region.
None-the-less, slightly cooler and moist low level conditions likely to blanket the area again early Tuesday after this next impulse departs to the east.
119 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Water vapor shows cut off low over the Four Corners with weak ridge over the northern tier of states. Next upper low is offshore the Pac NW coast. Southwest flow aloft will develop Tuesday and will continue through the weekend as upper low currently offshore the Pac NW slowly digs southeast through the western CONUS. The result will be near to above average temps most days this week (but a little cooler over the weekend), and daily chances for precip.
/ISSUED 453 AM MDT Mon May 17 2021/ Unseasonably warm weather will continue across the Great Falls CWA today as deep southwesterly flow continues to advect warmer air into the area today. The weather begins to turn unsettled tomorrow as an upper level low begins to move into the PacNW. As this upper level low moves in, a weak low pressure system will move across Southern British Columbia and Alberta, which will cause a cold front to swing through our area, sweeping away the recent warm air mass that we've had the past few days and replacing it with noticeably cooler air.
305 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 An upper height ridge over the Appalachians today will retrograde to the lower Ohio River valley by this weekend, amplifying to 594dm at 500mb directly over the Midsouth.
The upper low over western NM is forecast to move very slow to northeastern NM by Tuesday evening.
327 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep ridge extending northward from the western Caribbean to the Ohio Valley. The associated air mass is of continental origin, and incoming air trajectories in the Florida Keys, rooted in this highly modified continental polar air, are transporting rather "pleasant" air by mid/late May standards in the Florida Keys. The atmosphere exhibits merely weak conditional instability with a rather shallow moist layer owing to the large-scale, ridge-induced subsidence.
Looking ahead, a favorable pattern for a return to active weather is expected late this week and into the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS with a deepening trough across the western CONUS.
Mostly clear skies this morning except for a cloud band over southwest Idaho marking the northwest edge of the closed low now approaching the Four Corners. Dry Pacific cold front crossing the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Could see some fog again tonight, with temperatures a bit warmer tomorrow than today.
Ridge remains over our area, while a deepening trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Ridge slides east as aforementioned Pacific trough continues to work westerly. Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Pacific trough pushing onshore and deepening will be the main highlight as flow over our area shifts south-southwesterly and becomes active.
The main H850 moisture channel will have shifted slightly east of our area by tonight, so the higher rainfall amounts will be focused more into eastern Missouri north toward the Quad Cities. With a strong area of Great Lakes/Hudson Bay high pressure nearly anchored over the region, the north will see lesser to no precipitation once again from tonight through Tuesday night.
316 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Isolated showers dissipate this evening, then high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Skies clear tonight and high pressure/ridging settles over the region tomorrow. Forecast soundings are much more stable tomorrow afternoon, with all the instability in the low levels and a strong at around 700mb. High temperatures tomorrow will increase by a few degrees with ridging overhead and more sunshine expected.
Main upper low was located over the Four Corners area. Tuesday the upper low will progress out into the southern Rockies with broad ascent across the southern into parts of the central Plains. Highs Tuesday look to warm into the lower to middle 70s.
120 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 After a few more showers today, high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Weak high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast today will keep the overall pattern quiet. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s this afternoon as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds in from the west tonight and tomorrow. The upper ridge axis moves overhead on Tuesday which will allow for large scale subsidence across the entire area.
The region remain underneath low amplitude H70-H50 ridging aloft, while a weak boundary remains draped from KY through parts of southwest Virginia. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 82 62 85 63 / 0 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 79 60 84 60 / 10 20 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 79 59 84 60 / 10 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 77 57 81 57 / 20 40 20 20 0.
Easterly flow will persist with high pressure situated to the north.
Mid and high clouds will continue streaming across the northern Ohio Valley and will mainly impact the Detroit area terminals through the bulk of the period, with diurnally-driven cu field this afternoon above 5 kft waning this evening yielding SKC in the lowest 12 kft. This configuration ensures dry weather for SE MI between a front in northern Ontario and a low pressure center and warm front from MO into the Ohio valley. The cloud pattern combines with slightly more SE surface wind to cap temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, just a few degrees above normal for mid May.
129 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. High pressure will prevail today. High clouds could approach from the west later this afternoon/evening, however they pose no influence on the high temperatures today. The combination of greater cloud cover and warmer llvl thicknesses should result in low temperatures in the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast. At the surface, dry high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will prevail through the period. Aloft, a ridge will shift over the region from the west, which is then expected to drastically intensify Tuesday night. POPs are capped at 15% for a short duration Tuesday afternoon considering both the influence of high pressure and absence of forcing will likely override elevated shower development. Deep ridging maintains its hold over the Eastern Seaboard through the period.
204 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Weak upper ridge over the area this morning giving way to cut off low approaching from the west. The low was over AZ at 12z and will be moving into NM this evening and lift to the CO/NM border by Tuesday morning.
401 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 A ridge will continue to build over the eastern United States through the end of the week, although a warm front may move north across the far western portion of the forecast area Tuesday night. The near term period will generally be quiet with warming temps as high pressure builds over the eastern US. The warm front will lift north into Indiana and possibly northwestern Ohio Tuesday evening, but most guidance has the energy and moisture associated with the front dissipating before clipping the far western counties of our CWA. Ridging will begin to build west into the Midwest by Tuesday evening, which may keep showers outside of the CWA boundaries. Warm air advection will provide warmer overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
140 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Aviation - Dry today into Tuesday morning - Chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon through much of week - Warming trend is still on track - Dry today into Tuesday morning A warm front will remain situated off to the south of the state of Michigan both today and tonight with weak ridging extending into the area from the southeast. Lows tonight dip back into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Much warmer air begins to build into the Ohio Valley Tuesday, with increasing warmth by midweek and beyond. Temperatures will be considerably warmer Tuesday as a midlevel ridge axis begins to retrograde west into the eastern Ohio Valley. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night as the ridge axis builds further into the area.
353 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week with minimal rain chances.
The closed low effecting the region and bringing this rain will pass to the east by tomorrow morning with a much drier airmass moving in.
Dry conditions expected the remainder of the day and overnight with high pressure in control.
However, continued poor lapse rates and increasing ridging aloft will work against rain chances. At the start of the period, the synoptic pattern will feature a mid/upper ridge generally centered just to our east with a closed low located over the south-central Rockies. The aforementioned low will become absorbed into the prevailing westerlies as the pattern becomes increasingly blocky by the end of the week, with cut off lows developing over CA/NV border and over the western Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build over much of the east-central CONUS.
Currently, flow in Nebraska is being affected by the previous low that trekked through the area, and a closed upper level low over the 4 Corners area. More generally, winds will continue to be southeasterly until tomorrow evening when they will shift to southwesterly as the closed low approaches. In with collaboration with neighbors, trended a bit warmer, towards the 75th pct. As for daytime highs tomorrow, these persistent clouds will prevent any significant heat up, even with warmer 850 Temps (12-17 degrees).
Current temps are in the upper 70s to lower 80s at this hour, with dewpoints lagging in the lower 50s. Tuesday looks to house the best shot at the low-end chances for rain for the area for the next 7-10 days. Otherwise, the upper ridge to the south begins building N, essentially shutting off any changes for rain while it dominates the weather pattern for the rest of the week/weekend. The H5 ridge S of the CWFA begins to build Nwrd and strengthen for the remainder of the week/weekend ahead. With little in the way of rainfall expected thanks to subsidence in place across the area, temperatures will rise into the lower to perhaps middle 90s by this weekend. Morning lows will be mild, only falling into the lower/middle 60s each day.
High temperatures through Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 80s with cooler temps along the immediate coast.
Further north where sunshine is being seen (some high clouds sneaking in) highs should reach into the lower 70s. The ECMWF and GFS have come into good agreement with a very prominent upper ridge developing and building north of the Ohio River during the second half of this week. Ridging sfc and aloft will deepen over time across the wrn OH valley.
At 500 mb there was a closed low centered over northern AZ, and there were 12 hour height falls of up to around 60 meters southeast of the circulation. There was a cool pocket at 850 mb over the Great Lakes with slightly warmer air back over the Rockies. Look for highs Tuesday mostly from about 70 or the lower 70s - possibly 75 at a few spots. By Tuesday evening, the closed low at 500 mb over AZ should have tracked into northeast NM.
Temps will remain quite mild along the coast, holding in the low 70s.
The mid/upper level low pressure will continue to track eastward over NM the remainder of today. Convection has fired over the higher terrain mainly in the central mountains. These storms have stayed some what anchored to the higher elevations as they tend to weaken once moving over the valleys. The high-res still show the possibility of storms through about 03z. As the low slowly migrates over the Southern Divide late tonight much of the focus will be over our far eastern and southern mountains and high valleys. Ascent increases as another energy rotates around the low wrapping back West toward the central Divide. As noted earlier this ascent and temperatures favor snow falling over the high country and likely down to several of the passes. The PWATs increase as moisture continues to wrap cyclonically around the low pressure.
TSRA development is possible for HOB, MAF, and FST this afternoon with the highest confidence at HOB. A second and likely more severe round of storms will form after 06Z/Tue as a strong low-level jet increases convergence/mstr across the PB ahead of an mid/upper level low in NM. However, there will likely be another active period of severe wx Fri-Mon or so as backed sw aloft ahead a mid-level trough across the Great Basin favors warm and moisture conditions with the dryline in a far wwd location, and occasional shrtwv trofs.
941 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will gradually build in from the north over the next several days.
/issued 204 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/ Weak upper ridge over the area this morning giving way to cut off low approaching from the west. The low was over AZ at 12z and will be moving into NM this evening and lift to the CO/NM border by Tuesday morning.
A low pressure system will make its way across the Desert Southwest through Tuesday, resulting in continued unsettled conditions, at least for eastern Utah.
251 PM PDT Mon May 17 2021 Other than a few late day showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe, dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures is expected early this week. Unsettled weather along with cooler temperatures returns after mid-week. Enough moisture and instability will linger in the area today as the back side of the closed low clips Central California for a chance of Sierra showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ensembles are in good agreement of a longwave trough impacting California beginning midweek.
A storm system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds today, along with a chance of thunderstorms with most favorable locations in the mountains northeast of Tucson.
Building high pressure will ensure dry weather through the period.
Speaking of sunrise, it'll be noticeably warmer tomorrow morning when you venture out as morning lows are expected to be in the lows 60s for most. This will mark the beginning of warming trend we'll see throughout the week, so get ready for summer because it may be here by week's end and the ridge responsible for the hotter temperatures will also suppress rainfall.
/issued 305 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/ An upper height ridge over the Appalachians today will retrograde to the lower Ohio River valley by this weekend, amplifying to 594dm at 500mb directly over the Midsouth.
837 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Wet weather continues across the region tonight as the warm frontal boundary lifts through. The Low pressure core will slide northeast through Missouri overnight, into the Illinois River Valley for Tuesday.
313 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Going to start with another warm day on Tuesday before a cold front moves through the area Tuesday afternoon.
Clear skies will continue overnight as mid level ridge axis centers itself right overhead. Large area of high pressure remains centered along the Eastern US. with pronounce ridging extending westward thru the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Weak moisture-starved cold front is clipping Upper Michigan attm.
For the forecast, lowered the chances of precipitation behind the exiting line to 20% for this evening and overnight, but left the higher pops across the coastal waters and coastal parishes for the ongoing convection.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): An initially zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight will gradually shift to out of the southwest for Tuesday and Tuesday night as closed mid-level low pressure eases east from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle.
938 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week with minimal rain chances.
324 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Overview: A deamplifying upper level low, presently situated over the Desert Southwest, will slowly progress eastward across the southern Rockies tonight through Tuesday night.
519 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Water vapor shows cut off low over the Four Corners with weak ridge over the northern tier of states. Next upper low is offshore the Pac NW coast. Southwest flow aloft will develop Tuesday and will continue through the weekend as upper low currently offshore the Pac NW slowly digs southeast through the western CONUS. The result will be near to above average temps most days this week (but a little cooler over the weekend), and daily chances for precip.
/issued 401 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): An initially zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight will gradually shift to out of the southwest for Tuesday and Tuesday night as closed mid-level low pressure eases east from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle.
1049 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Much warmer air begins to build into the Ohio Valley Tuesday, with increasing warmth by midweek and beyond. Temperatures will be considerably warmer Tuesday as a midlevel ridge axis begins to retrograde west into the eastern Ohio Valley. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night as the ridge axis builds further into the area.