Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED WHICH ALLOWED THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA HAVE EVEN HIT RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AND A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE.
Otherwise, a steady southerly flow tonight will keep temps from falling too much, with the vast majority of the region expected to stay above freezing all night. The best chance for reaching the freezing mark will be in the far north where the remnant snowpack is.
516 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
450 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2015 Broad upper level trough will remain over Montana with periods of Pacific moisture moving over the forecast area through the weekend. The warm temperatures will keep snow levels relatively high so little to no impacts are expected from precipitation except in the highest terrain.
605 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PULL WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. DEEPER MIXING ON SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER. AND A BIT WARMER FOR LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE.
628 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
MORE EFFICIENT WAA HAVE SUPPORTED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NWRN OK. WITH THE NAM RUNNING COOLER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY IN ALL AREAS. WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD. WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25% AGAIN.
742 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
933 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
However, latest model data suggests that the low clouds and MVFR cigs that eroded south of the area this afternoon will expand much more aggressively into the are after midnight tonight. Warming trend has begun today and will continue through Saturday, with a broad upper ridge over Mexico and the adjacent southwest U. Given the low-level pattern with dry air and 850mb temperatures 17-18 deg C, going with highs above MOS guidance on Saturday.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA REACHED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z. CLOUD COVER WAS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN PROVIDING SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS. THE LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD SUPPORT THE COLDER VALLEYS INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGES STAYING IN THE 30S. CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPREADS DEVELOPING ONCE MORE. WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
HOWEVER RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE OK AND OBSERVED TEMPS ACROSS NW OK INDICATE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.
Low-level return flow will bring warmer air into the Ohio Valley, but without deep moisture as the trajectory is off the Southern Plains.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S/70S AND COULD BE EVEN A BIT COOLER IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
930 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
915 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTING NE TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAY SEE A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS RIDGE.
819 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PULL WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND.
Latest water vapor imagery showing upper trough along the west coast helping to push high plains ridging eastward. Therefore expect the warmest temps again (in the low/mid 70s) to occur along and south of I 70 with cooler readings to the north in the 60s.
524 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 AT H5 UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHS OFF OF BOTH COASTS. H85 T/S IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER SNOW FIELDS.
445 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ A VERY DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREA.
605 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO THE AREA.
THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE PREVALENT FROM A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WITH THE SETTING SUN. AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT IN THE EAST. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THE EAST. WITH THIS AND THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE.
1000 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. HOWEVER RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE OK AND OBSERVED TEMPS ACROSS NW OK INDICATE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND RESULT IN A WARMING SOUTHWEST WIND THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BLOWING TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THE STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL THEN FORM SOMETIME SAT NT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER RH VALUES WILL STAY ANCHORED NEAR THE SFC AS DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE H9 LEVEL.
714 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL/THETA-E RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLD EASTWARD WITH 850MB TEMPS PUSHING 10C BY TOMORROW. ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WHEN ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED OVER DEEP SNOWPACK BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS CASE REMAINS LOW. DEWPOINTS DON'T CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE BOTH HERE AND UPSTREAM TODAY. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO IF FREEZING FOG DOES DEVELOP IT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.
FREEZING LEVELS WERE HIGH - 10500 FT MSL - ON THE EVENING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDING. WARM RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE 50 KNOT RIDGE TOP WINDS ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS COUNTIES HAVE LOST THE LOWER CLOUDS BUT THEY RESIDE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS WILL DISPERSE THIS AFTN WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL QG CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 285K SURFACE SHOULD BE.
A steady southerly wind will persist tonight which will overnight lows above freezing at most locations. Even warmer temperatures are in store for Saturday with support from additional thickness rises and a 850 MB thermal ridge that will transition across the Ozarks region.
828 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER THE LOWS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BLOWING TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
1034 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
547 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
640 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
WARMER ALONG THE COAST. THE WARMUP WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SELY AND MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A NEARLY ZONAL MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP A WEAK NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KS ON SATURDAY.
707 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PREFERRED THE WARMER/HOTTER GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES AND MAV GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER.
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD ERODE GIVING WAY TO PCLDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO BE AROUND 60 OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH SST ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SLY WIND WILL LEAD TO WARMER MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT. DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
330 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY BEFORE PASSING EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
300 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.
131 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK.
625 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY BEFORE PASSING EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
633 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA IF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE KILOMETERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RAP/HRRR MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEST SO HAVE RELIED ON THIS GUIDANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. A LEE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.
442 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AND LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LA/NORTHERN GULF AND RADAR DEPICTS AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. UPPER AIR PATTERN STILL DEPICTS A STRONG SOUTHERN JET WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND A POTENT TROUGH LOCATED OVER BAJA. STILL IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS TODAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES AND THE FRNTL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER RAINS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A FRNTL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT.
BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THIS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WHETHER THAT WILL DAMPEN FUELS ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
315 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH THIS CONCERN, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE WEAKEST WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, WITH POPS TAPERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY THEN CURL NORTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT.
322 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
359 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCENTRATIONS ARE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING.
422 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS. IN THIS AREA THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXIT REGION COMBINED WITH COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD EASILY FOCUS A PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN ABSENCE OF LARGE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POLAR JET INFLUENCE THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY RAISE THE THREAT LEVEL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS.
A STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RETURN NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WEST CONUS. AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF THIS MORNING OVER PUERTO PENASCO, MEX. ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS ON THERE IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW CLOSED OFF PER THE GFS AROUND HOBBS NM AT 18Z MONDAY. WV IMAGERY WILL BE A GOOD TOOL THIS WEEK TO PICK OUT AND TIME THOSE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES MID WEEK CLOSING OFF A LOW AROUND CHINLE AZ AROUND 12Z THU.
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH MAY BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE AND FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WILL START POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND RAISE THEM TO CATEGORICAL IN THE WEST BY 06Z THEN TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS IDENTIFIED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. WITH WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOSED OFF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE MULTITUDE OF WAVES RIDING NEAR THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDERS CAN ONLY MANAGE TO DRAG MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS THROUGH MN/WI.
137 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SO DID NOT PUT IN ANY THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD AND INTO WEST TX TONIGHT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY UPPER LOW HEADS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND SHEARS OUT. PACIFIC NW TROF DIGS SWD INTO THE DESERT SW LATER IN THE WEEK THEN KICKS OFF THE THE EAST ACROSS N TX/OK THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE THESE NEXT SEVER- AL DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY FCST FOR LATE MON IS NOW NOT EXP- ECTED TO EVEN REACH THE COASTLINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND INCREASING POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
120 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
347 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ENSURE A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
340 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
315 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 FXUS63 KLOT 120755 AFDLOT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 255 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 259 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME MODELS. UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY BUT DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
357 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY UNDER FULL SUN TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED. EVEN BETTER FRONTAL TIMING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY.
Sunday, said upper low will be sw of KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). An assocd cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB.
309 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LIGHT WIND AND LOW MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES - MANY LOCATIONS WILL NEAR FREEZING. SO DID NOT PUT IN ANY THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.
107 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 259 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME MODELS. UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY BUT DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
1049 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2015 A cold front has moved through the region leaving unsettled weather this afternoon. Widespread showers accompanied by breezy conditions will give way to a ridge of high pressure Sunday. Chances for precip were also increased a little bit in the lower portion of the Upper Columbia Basin and into the Palouse where a weak convergence zone is located. /SVH 06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. Southwest boundary layer winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE, but confidence is not as high as at KPUW.
612 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH JUST SOME MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL MONDAY MORNING FOR THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TODAY'S AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE SOLIDLY WARMER. AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ATTEMPTING TO BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/ST CLAIR. BUT STILL SOLIDLY WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (5+ DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS).
106 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND INCREASING POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.