Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front to usher in much colder temperatures Saturday. and freezing rain with up to an inch of snow and a glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulations. A cold front at 18z extended along I-70 across Kansas arching into northern MO. the more significant aspect will be subfreezing temperatures which will surge into west central MO around daybreak. freezing rain. models continue to show good agreement in maintaining a "warm nose" of above freezing temperatures aloft causing frozen crystals to change over to rain for a bulk of the morning into the afternoon over the forecast area. Lingering flurries will occur until the upper trough passes on Sunday.
Low pressure will develop over the Southeastern United States this weekend.
This band is expected to move to the east ahead of the upper trough.
Arctic high pressure will continue to shift east today with flurries ending and skies clearing. WAA will then ensue tonight as upper ridging spreads east. Much warmer conds can be expected both Sun and Mon as Pac downslope airmass spreads east.
1035 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extends from the Atlantic, across Florida, and across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient has tight a bit from 24 hours ago due to the ridge axis being slightly further north and winds are now gentle to moderate out of the east. Deep layered ridging is in firm control of the broader region. Conditions remain well above normal with temperatures still in the upper 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Robust ridging will remain aligned across Central Florida through the overnight period. Ridging across Central Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters overnight.
The main axis of an upper trough will pass through the area tonight, which may bring some light snow or sleet to far northern parts of the Big Country.
The winds may cause blowing and drifting of snow through Sunday as temperatures remain below freezing.
Temps will remain above freezing over the eastern half of the region tonight, while northwest portions/higher elevations drop to the mid 20s, even as that moisture source dries/lifts out.
This has prevented temps from free- falling and many locations are still several degrees warmer than previously forecast lows. Temps look to steady out or slowly rise after midnight as weak return flow sets up with warm air advection beginning in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A light northwest wind today gives favorable direction over the relatively warmer water.
Snow on runways is likely this morning, with KGUP, KSAF and KLVS having the highest probability for 1"+. Otherwise, strong winds will develop behind a cold front today, with frequent gusts to between 35-40kts.
650 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 For the 01/12Z TAF update, MVFR cigs and low cloud decks precede a significant cold front ushering in the coldest air of the season so far. There is a very slight chance for wintry precipitation across our far northeastern zones, however, it will not produce hazardous conditions as surfaces remain well above freezing mark and as the atmosphere dries out.
High pressure continues to dominate the short term weather, with mostly clear skies across the region bringing down temperatures quickly. Hubbard, Wadena, Lake of the Woods, and Beltrami will see slightly warmer temperatures, but wind chill values are still expected within the range of -35 to -45 at times. Morning lows bottom out in the -20s to lower -30s Sunday before winds turn southerly bringing slightly warmer temperatures to the region. Its not drastically warmer, but its an improvement as highs reach the single digits out east and the lower teens toward the Devils Lake Basin. A ridge continues to build in to close out the weekend, with continued slightly warmer temperatures into the new work week.
Moisture will wrap around on the back side with some further enhancement from the upper level trough. With freezing levels continuing to drop, the showers should turn over to snow late Sunday afternoon and into the evening.
Average temperatures for both December and the year were much warmer than normal and ranked within the top 10 warmest at most sites, except at Fort Pierce, for both periods.
This temperature forecast is 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the guidance blend.
Will show winds shifting to the west and eventually the northwest in the wake of the cold front.
Temperatures are below freezing for much of the region with widespread 30s in the Valley.
Showers and low clouds continue to diminish early this morning and should end by daybreak as the last trough exits as high pressure system tries to build in from the west.
308 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the short term weather, with mostly clear skies across the region bringing down temperatures quickly. Hubbard, Wadena, Lake of the Woods, and Beltrami will see slightly warmer temperatures, but wind chill values are still expected within the range of -35 to -45 at times. Morning lows bottom out in the -20s to lower -30s Sunday before winds turn southerly bringing slightly warmer temperatures to the region. Its not drastically warmer, but its an improvement as highs reach the single digits out east and the lower teens toward the Devils Lake Basin. A ridge continues to build in to close out the weekend, with continued slightly warmer temperatures into the new work week.
The upper low that was off the northern Baja coast 24 hours ago has filled and was moving through eastern NM this morning. Water vapor imagery showed upper level trof extending across Utah into NW AZ.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A cold front is on track to pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Saturday night after midnight. Cooler, more near normal lows will occur tonight courtesy of the frontal passage, with highs rebounding to near normal levels on Sunday with abundant sunshine in place.
The rest of the weekend there will be some breezy conditions on the Sierra ridges with gusts 40-50 mph until midday today. This will help to limit how cold it feels out there, at least in the lower valleys. Ensemble cluster analysis is holding steady with keeping the upper level jet and trough across the Pac NW, with just a bit of leftovers down here in CA and NV. * WINDS: This could be a significant wind event for areas north of Interstate 80, particularly for areas along the Highway 395/Interstate 580 corridor. For Sierra ridges, wind gusts 60-100 mph are likely (pretty typical for a Sierra winter storm).
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and extending westward across the Bahamas and South Florida. Aloft, deep ridging extends from the western Atlantic to the southern Gulf of Mexico and continues to dominate our region. Expect plenty of sunshine once again, with high temps climbing into the lower 80s.
Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area on Sunday which will be the start of a short period of less cold conditions.
The coldest conditions will begin to retreat for the weekend as upper level ridging from the western U. Chinook warming may allow temperatures for NE Montana to climb into the 20s above zero A few higher terrain locations and places southwest of Fort Peck Lake may push the freezing mark.
Surface winds are expected to gradually diminish today as a weak pre-frontal trough moves into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The passage of a cold front through the region around sunrise Sunday morning will bring an increase in winds from nearly the north. /issued 353 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A cold front is on track to pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Saturday night after midnight. Cooler, more near normal lows will occur tonight courtesy of the frontal passage, with highs rebounding to near normal levels on Sunday with abundant sunshine in place.
Although synoptic lift begins to wane toward 00Z, the trough axis will pass late enough to need some POPs in for this evening.
520 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the short term weather, with mostly clear skies across the region bringing down temperatures quickly. Hubbard, Wadena, Lake of the Woods, and Beltrami will see slightly warmer temperatures, but wind chill values are still expected within the range of -35 to -45 at times. Morning lows bottom out in the -20s to lower -30s Sunday before winds turn southerly bringing slightly warmer temperatures to the region. Its not drastically warmer, but its an improvement as highs reach the single digits out east and the lower teens toward the Devils Lake Basin. A ridge continues to build in to close out the weekend, with continued slightly warmer temperatures into the new work week.
(Tonight) Cold airmass continues to overspread the forecast area with light freezing drizzle and snow flurries being reported well northward into the arctic airmass. As of yet, no notable travel impacts have been reported but any persistent zone of freezing drizzle could yield slick spots on elevated surfaces.
A longwave positive tilt trough will continue to move from Colorado into Kansas this evening and into the early overnight. Subsidence behind the trough should clear out the skies after midnight and with the arctic air, snow on the ground, and the dry air in general. the low temperature forecast has lower values than guidance.
Brisk northern winds originating from Arctic high pressure that is situated over the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, has funneled dry and very cold air into northern Iowa with temperatures currently in the single digits below zero and dew points in the 5 below to 15 below range. Sky conditions will clear overnight and it is possible that parts of northwest Iowa have the winds decouple and diminish as high pressure approaches from the west, so temperatures could fall there though certainly the lack of snow won't help temperatures plummet.
As the frontal system develops and moves closer to our region, we'll remain under a similar pattern of deep-layer ridging with dry air dominating much of the column. Any moisture will remain in the lowest few hundred mb of the troposphere and will likely be unable to produce more than a sprinkle or two where convergent flow is maximized.
This, the result of the upper low across KS moving rapidly east. This temperature forecast is 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the guidance blend.
1242 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the driver of mainly quiet weather across western and central Wyoming this weekend.
1002 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 Mean layer ridging remains in control across the Florida Keys. The forecast calls for near nil rain chances with highs in the lower 80s. Moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes will prevail across the Keys coastal waters today through early Sunday morning as high pressure retreats eastward over the Atlantic and a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Breezes will veer to the southwest and slacken Sunday afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches through the eastern Gulf.
The upper level trough responsible for this winter weather will drag over the Great Plains, creating a favorable environment for ongoing light snowfall into the evening. Snow pack will also play into temps, keeping highs in the lower teens near the Missouri/Iowa border, and topping off near 20 degrees closer into central Missouri and eastern Kansas. However, given the snow pack and past history with cold fronts like this in the region, we're leaning towards clouds breaking by the afternoon hours rather than AM.
(This evening through Sunday) A strong Arctic cold front will continue to track through the region this evening and into tonight, with temperatures currently plummeting a solid 20 to 25 degrees in the wake of the front over the Big Country.
A longwave positive tilt trough will continue to move from Colorado into Kansas this evening and into the early overnight. Subsidence behind the trough should clear out the skies after midnight and with the arctic air, snow on the ground, and the dry air in general. the low temperature forecast has lower values than guidance. Tranquil conditions return Sunday and continue into the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains, then breaking down as it moves farther east into the Central Plains.
Tonight, the main upper level trough and surface front drag a line of showers/thunderstorms through the region. However, this low is not traditional in that the upper trough is displaced well to the west. and more of a narrow trough though this region than a classic mature cyclonic low.
Otherwise, main upper trough will swing east through the area this evening.
Expect wind shift behind cold front towards daybreak, with MVFR stratus filling in at all terminals for the remainder of the period. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 62 30 44 28 / 100 70 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 62 29 41 25 / 100 70 70 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 60 28 42 25 / 100 70 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 60 27 38 21 / 90 70 70 20 0 NC.
The 12z Omaha sounding sampled a relatively dry air mass in the lowest 4-5 kft, and given observed ceiling heights of 6-9 kft, considerable top-down saturation is having to occur to get snow to the ground. It'll feel even cooler.
1107 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 (The rest of today ) The cold front currently is near a KSGF-KMKO-KDUA line this morning. May continue to see some light precipitation in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon as well.
We are strongly sheared both in the deep layer and helicity rich low levels and while the main feature looks to be a more organized QLCS coming into the NW after about 10pm/midnight with a sfc cold front then tracking SEWD in the early morning hours, some more discrete strong to isolated severe cells are possible this afternoon and evening ahead. The rest of the area should see continued scattered shower coverage as the upper trough amplifies from the west and really ramps up PVA.
Even so, 'warmer' air is approaching from the southwest. The coldest conditions will begin to retreat for the weekend as upper level ridging from the western U. Chinook warming may allow temperatures for NE Montana to climb into the 20s above zero A few higher terrain locations and places southwest of Fort Peck Lake may push the freezing mark.
330 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 It is an unseasonably warm and humid afternoon across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints near 70. The western extent of the subtropical ridge reaches west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a cold front nearing the Arklatex continues to make slow progress to the southeast. The short wave over western Texas will slide east tonight through Sunday night, effectively eroding the entrenched ridging over the Gulf of Mexico.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 57 62 30 44 / 50 100 70 40 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 57 62 29 41 / 40 100 70 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 60 28 42 / 50 100 70 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 56 60 27 38 / 50 90 70 70 20 NC.
While warmer air will invade the region later tonight, a record 925 mb airmass per the 12Z KABR sounding, temperatures this evening should plummet very quickly with lows of 10 below to 25 degrees below zero expected.
255 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 Exiting high pressure has brought a light west southwest wind, bringing some slight warming of temperatures and improved wind chills across the CWA today. As this high continues to exit the region tonight, a warm front of sorts will set up across the state. The result will be a slight increased in southwest flow bringing warming temperatures along and behind of the resultant warm front. Right now the front appears to make it to about the Highway 83 corridor. Limited moisture with this low will also make for a mainly dry forecast for Sunday.
Changes on the way as lee trough from central MT into central CO becomes a warm front that heads eastward over the next couple of days. Tonight, low level warm air advection begins in earnest in response to upper ridge building into the Rockies.
Upper trough has shifted to the east with ridging building into the area.
(The rest of today ) The cold front currently is near a KSGF-KMKO-KDUA line this morning. May continue to see some light precipitation in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle this afternoon as well.
200 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 Cold air continues to moderate across the area tonight as warmer air moves in aloft along with increasing southwest winds.
However, surface warming will lag considerably, so that Sunday evening and overnight temperatures will likley be warmer than Sunday afternoon temperatures. Confidence on impacts is on the lower end, but some impacts are possible from accumulating snowfall.
Behind this front, much colder air will spread in and on Sunday, a fairly deep upper trough will swing by.
The trough has now moved into New Mexico leaving gusty winds in its wake. Freezing temperatures will be likely across the whole CWA.
Cold air continues to moderate across the area tonight as warmer air moves in aloft along with increasing southwest winds.
The mean trough axis will remain west of the WFO PAH forecast area at daybreak Sunday, taking most of the day to move into the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. With temperatures still expected to be at or above freezing, no residual accumulation is expected on road/ground surfaces.
Starting tonight, a ridge of high pressure will begin building behind the exiting storm system. Given the synoptic subsidence and drier air with this ridge, precipitation will dissipate quickly across southern Colorado, with nearly all precipitation gone by midnight. Clouds will also start to clear overnight as the high pressure starts to expand over southern Colorado.
Despite cloud cover, overnight lows will drop below freezing in most of the CWA, except maybe our far eastern and southeastern zones. The forecast gets a little interesting by tomorrow morning as models hint at some developing precip as the main trough axis swings through. As of now, decided to confine slight precip chances to our eastern zones and kept precip very light and all liquid for now, as temps at the surface should be above freezing, along with a bit of a warm nose aloft.
The high pressure will continue to push the snow and then the clouds out.
The strongest winds continue only in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, where the High Wind Warning will remain in effect until midnight CST. While parts of the Davis Mountains above 6000ft may continue to see strong gusts for a few hours, the High Wind Warning there and across eastern Culberson County and the Eddy County Plains has been allowed to expire.
/issued 346 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/ A cold front has pushed into north Mississippi. Tomorrow, the upper trough associated with todays cold front will approach the Mississippi River. A disturbance still on the east side of the trough will track across the Midsouth.
447 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 For tonight, the trough axis will shift to the east this evening with dry and subsidence in the mid and upper levels. An upper level ridge over the West will build into CO late tonight into Sunday. Very cold temperatures in the high mountain valleys as well, also around minus 25F below, but it could get even colder.
The effects of an approaching 'warmer' ridge of higher pressure from the southwest are being felt beginning today as temperatures have climbed above 0 degrees for the first time in a week for many of our western and southern CWA locations.
Exiting high pressure has brought a light west southwest wind, bringing some slight warming of temperatures and improved wind chills across the CWA today. As this high continues to exit the region tonight, a warm front of sorts will set up across the state. The result will be a slight increased in southwest flow bringing warming temperatures along and behind of the resultant warm front. Right now the front appears to make it to about the Highway 83 corridor. Limited moisture with this low will also make for a mainly dry forecast for Sunday.
Expect to see a few hours of IFR/LIFR conds behind the FROPA, with areas of mainly light rain/snow in the higher elevations.
637 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Weather will be mostly driven by the passage of a strong cold front with lowering ceilings to IFR/MVFR categories later tonight through much of Sunday. Tonight, the main upper level trough and surface front drag a line of showers/thunderstorms through the region. However, this low is not traditional in that the upper trough is displaced well to the west. and more of a narrow trough though this region than a classic mature cyclonic low.
Mostly clear skies are being observed across Northern California today under weak high pressure. Northerly winds continue across the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills today but are forecast to become more diurnal tonight as the trough digging to our east finally moves into the Desert SW. The north winds limited this morning's minimum temperatures in the Valley from falling much below freezing as originally forecast and also limited stratus and fog formation. The diurnal, light winds and clear skies under high pressure tonight into tomorrow morning. will allow for patchy to locally dense fog to form and temperatures to fall below freezing across the Valley.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Sunday Night/ The much advertised arctic cold front is blasting through Central Texas this evening sending temperatures plummeting into the 30s with strong north winds. The front will clear all of our area in the next hour or so with temperatures already well below freezing northwest of the Metroplex. All areas will be below freezing after midnight. The upper trough responsible for this front will actually swing through North Texas tonight with strong mid level forcing for ascent expected to overspread the region.
Light freezing precipitation is occurring over southeast Kansas into west central and central MO early this afternoon with only minor impacts so far. Some continued freezing drizzle, very light snow will be possible, mostly along and north of I-44.
High pressure continues to bring dry conditions to South Florida this evening. Winds will shift to a southerly direction as a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas to the upper 80s across interior sections. As the frontal system develops and moves closer to our region, we'll remain under a similar pattern of deep-layer ridging with dry air dominating much of the column. Any moisture will remain in the lowest few hundred mb of the troposphere and will likely be unable to produce more than a sprinkle or two where convergent flow is maximized.
A prefrontal trough has a line of convection just past KELD and nearing KRSN. Despite cloud cover, overnight lows will drop below freezing in most of the CWA, except maybe our far eastern and southeastern zones. The forecast gets a little interesting by tomorrow morning as models hint at some developing precip as the main trough axis swings through. As of now, decided to confine slight precip chances to our eastern zones and kept precip very light and all liquid for now, as temps at the surface should be above freezing, along with a bit of a warm nose aloft.
521 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A strong Arctic cold front will continue to track through the region this evening and into tonight, with temperatures currently plummeting a solid 20 to 25 degrees in the wake of the front over the Big Country.
355 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the driver of mainly quiet weather across western and central Wyoming this weekend.
512 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 (Tonight) Cold airmass continues to overspread the forecast area with light freezing drizzle and snow flurries being reported well northward into the arctic airmass. As of yet, no notable travel impacts have been reported but any persistent zone of freezing drizzle could yield slick spots on elevated surfaces.