Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low off the South Carolina coastline will attempt to rotate moisture into the forecast area through the day today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 62 83 62 85 / 0 0 20 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 81 60 83 / 0 0 50 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 81 60 83 / 0 0 40 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 78 56 80 / 10 10 60 20 70.
636 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store, with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with highs mainly in the upper 90s. It will be another breezy day, with a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line bringing gusty south winds.
329 AM PDT Thu May 12 2022 Slight shower chances today for the Coast Range, otherwise dry and warmer weather.
Concur with the deterministic ECMWF/GFS/NAM which predicts the Omega Block to break down as the western upper trough/low lifts NE/N across the Rockies and into the central/northern Plains during the period, with some upper forcing associated with this system moving across the CWA today/tonight.
From synopsis, as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic continues to slowly retrograde southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula this afternoon, breezes will slacken.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper trough over UT this morning will lift across WY today and the Dakotas tonight. A ridge over E TX will be squeezed between this trough and a deep low along the GA coast. The ridge will retreat into S TX Friday as a broad trough remains over the Central Plains. Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 90s with 100s along the Rio Grande.
Although heights aloft will fall today as a large upper level low along the east coast shifts westward, low and mid level temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. 14 inches, lower cloud cover, and sinking air noted on vertical omega fields all suggests it will be another hot day with highs reaching the low 80s on the Plateau and mid 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Afterwards, look for VFR as high pressure dominates the region.
Strong mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Mississippi River Valley. The ridge will weaken through tonight as stacked low pressure drifts westward over the Southeast coast. In the lower levels, high pressure is forecast to move east across New England. East/northeast flow through a deep layer is advecting slightly cooler and much drier air into the region this morning. In central KY and southern IN, sfc dewpoints will eventually settle into the low to mid 50s for much of the daytime, resulting in more comfortable humidity levels.
411 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Today and tonight: A short wave will rotate around the low today and kick off a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening hours. With highs climbing into the low 90s, steep low low level lapse rates, mid level lapse rates around 6. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s east to the low 70s in the west.
Otherwise, expected generally VFR conditions for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 431 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Elongated 500mb ridge axis extending from the Great Lakes into Mexico will continue to provide subsidence over the area through much of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain an onshore flow across the deep south Texas today into Friday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s with sightly drier air in place over the region.
Cooler than normal high temperatures today will be short lived as a significant warmup will occur this weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Elongated 500mb ridge axis extending from the Great Lakes into Mexico will continue to provide subsidence over the area through much of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain an onshore flow across the deep south Texas today into Friday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s with sightly drier air in place over the region.
Otherwise, a continued fcst of persistence with mid/upper ridging in control.
SCT-NMRS showers/ISOLD lightning storms over the local coastal waters/immediate coast pressing southward in association with low pressure off of the east FL coast. The upper low will continue to push east toward the peninsula and lie across northeast FL by sunrise Fri morning. ISOLD lightning will be in play today with cooler temps aloft. SCT-NMRS showers and ISOLD lightning storms around today/tonight with low pressure over the area.
High pressure nearly overhead will maintain light and variable winds through the morning becoming more predominantly southerly by this afternoon.
Showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms look to brush the I-75 corridor and eastern Big Bend this afternoon as the low edges closer.
The approaching upper trough lifts out across Wyoming today and across the Dakotas tonight.
527 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022 Pacific upper level low was located over southwest UT with a trough extending into AZ. Upper low and negatively tilted trough lift to the northeast across WY/CO this morning, and through the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will sweep east across the CWA today, with strong westerly low/mid level winds developing this morning west of the Laramie Range. Otherwise, it will be noticeably cooler with high temperatures from the mid 50s to mid 70s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure system and front today, tapering off from south to north later this afternoon.
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70's across the region. High pressure will build into the area from the north keeping mostly rain-free conditions over the eastern gulf waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Interaction between this high pressure and an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline is producing NNE winds around 15 knots through the day. The low pressure moves northeast away from the area late Friday as high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico.
/Issued 410 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022/ While much of today should be again precip free and mostly sunny to partly cloudy, moisture will be advecting in from the east accompanying a westward retrograding and slowly dampening upper cutoff low within the large scale blocking pattern aloft. Temps look to stay near climo norms today with highs generally in the low to mid 80s, then increased clouds/precip potential and influence of upper low will limit max temps Friday to below norms with much of the area in the upper 70s.
After one more day of slightly below normal temperatures, high pressure will build over the region Friday into the weekend leading to a quick warm up.
531 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather, though low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
1119 AM PDT Thu May 12 2022 The arrival of a cold front late this afternoon and tonight will produce widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the region.
(Tonight through Friday night) Early afternoon temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s and are on track to top out in the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass.
A warm front ran east from the low in South Dakota to the WI/MI border and then dropped due south along the western edge of Lake Michigan. Dew points were in the 60s and 70s south and west of the warm front with comfortable 40s and 50s north of the warm front. Cloud cover will increase after midnight which will keep temperatures much warmer than normal. VFR conditions are expected through 18z/13 ahead of an approaching cold front. After 18z/13 TSRA will quickly develop along the cold front in eastern Iowa and move into northern Illinois through 00z/14.
This becomes established as the low lifts north, a weak high approaches from the central plains and high pressure sits over the east coast.
1004 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 A large area of high pressure centered over eastern Canada continues to build slightly to the southwest today. This is pushing a wedge of cooler and drier air westward from north central Alabama towards northwestern Alabama this morning. Given the expected limited coverage of this thunderstorm threat and with temperatures already in the upper 70s to lower 80s, still expect highs to climb into the lower to upper 80s this afternoon. Further east, some cold air advection east of the boundary should keep highs in the lower to mid 80s.
909 AM PDT Thu May 12 2022 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring a strong warming trend into the weekend with high temperatures well above average.
4 inches, highest in the eastern area where moisture transport is strongest as the low pressure to our east finally starts to move towards the area. A bit more clearing today, especially in the central and western forecast areas than previously expected and as a result, temperatures are running a bit warmer with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon. Tonight as the low continues to approach the area, low clouds will increase in coverage with northeast winds remaining between 5 to 10mph. Lows will remain mild in the low to mid 60s. Upper area of low pressure that has been off the southeastern coast the past several days will be moving inland close to the Ga/SC state line on Friday. This low will then slow and move northwestward by the afternoon hours and into Friday night.
A warm front ran east from the low in South Dakota to the WI/MI border and then dropped due south along the western edge of Lake Michigan. Dew points were in the 60s and 70s south and west of the warm front with comfortable 40s and 50s north of the warm front. Cloud cover will increase after midnight which will keep temperatures much warmer than normal.
Several CAMs show some storms develop in west central OK around midnight or after then expanding/moving into portions of northern and central OK overnight into Friday morning as a cold front moves across portions of the area. The previously mentioned cold front is expected to move across portions of the area before slowing down/stalling and weakening Friday afternoon. Some cooler temperatures are expected behind the front tonight with lows dropping into the 50s in NW parts of the fa. Slightly cooler temperatures are also expected across portions of the fa Friday although temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid 80s to upper 90s.
Latest 18Z HRRR continues the trend of some of the other 12Z CAMs showing some scattered convection across the area for Friday afternoon, with a weak triple point between a weak cold front sliding into the area and a dryline.
348 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 A very pleasant afternoon across Eastern KY as high pressure nosing down from upper New England remains in control. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 50s in some of the deeper valleys, to mid and upper 50s elsewhere. The low pressure system that has been lingering off the SE coast will start to slowly move inland on Friday, and as a result will throw some additional moisture into the area. The highest chances will be over the SE, while areas to the north across the Bluegrass have the best chance of staying dry. Afternoon high temps will generally be in the lower 80s.
Largely a persistence forecast for Friday, although low level moisture will be on the increase as northward progression of a closed upper low pushes mid 50s dewpoints into the region by late morning. Pattern change commences overnight Friday as the closed upper low works its way into the mean flow.
The rest of the afternoon will be relatively quiet ahead of the next cold front tonight. An inch or two of snow is expected on the passes with brief slush at times, especially on the higher passes such as Lost Trail.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Overall, the short term will be fairly pleasant if you enjoy warm and mostly sunny weather! An elongated mid level ridge extending from northeast Mexico to the Midwest will help to maintain a steady weather pattern over Deep South Texas. Subsidence from this ridge combined with abundant dry air aloft will keep any mentionable rain chances out of the forecast and keep the daytime hours mostly sunny, so be sure to protect your skin and stay hydrated if you plan on spending time outside.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A short wave will rotate around the low today and kick off a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening hours. With highs climbing into the low 90s, steep low low level lapse rates, mid level lapse rates around 6. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s east to the low 70s in the west.
While mid level lapse rates are steep, the lack of deep shear this far east and the high freezing level may decrease the large hail threat to just low end severe limits or less.
244 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The center of the upper ridge that has been over the Mid-South the last several days will continue to retrograde to the west into the early part of weekend as it weakens. At the surface, a backdoor cold front that is mainly a division between the humid air and much drier air currently sits over Middle Tennessee. With the upper ridge weakening, chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region on Friday. If the backdoor cold front does edge westward into the CWA, this boundary may become the focus of shower and thunderstorm development as well.
As a result, low temperatures will be colder compared to last night ranging from the middle 30s to around 40 in far eastern Colorado to the lower to upper 40s east of the Colorado/Kansas border. High temperatures are forecast to reach the middle 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50.
154 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 The hot and dry weather will persist through Friday before cooler and somewhat wetter conditions arrive for the weekend. The upper level ridge firmly in place over the Great Lakes region will remain through Friday evening, leaving hot and dry conditions under (thankfully) light south-southeast winds. Despite lack of winds, the lower humidity values in combination with the heat today will support an increased fire risk across the area, so be cautious and perhaps rearrange any plans to burn. Friday night we finally phase our two upper level systems, the northwest low over the Canadian Prairie and the closed low over the SE CONUS.
301 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Current surface analysis places low lifting through south central South Dakota, with warm front stretching to the east. Upper level analysis places negatively tilted trough over the western CONUS, with the base attempting to close off over Colorado. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, low and warm front continue their northerly lift. As we go through the evening into the overnight, winds will be on the increase as the low gradually lifts north the area and deepens, starting to stack up with the upper features.
342 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 A area of low pressure will move southwestward just off the North and South Carolina coast, bringing breezy north winds and increasing rain chances.
358 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 High pressure aloft will continue to translate east into New England as a low tracks westward towards the SC/GA coast.
Large scale flow consisting of negative tilt trough with embedded circulation situated over WY. At the surface, area of low pressure was located over south-central SD with a warm front extending into southern MN and a cold front extending to northeast CO. At this point, the HRRR is advertising this initial surge of convection will weaken late this afternoon with more development along the cold front sweeping in from the west.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure trough ejecting NE through Wyoming while the next upstream disturbance was pinwheeling into the Oregon/Washington coast. In between these systems, modest convective showers were observed across the Upper Snake Plain and Highlands while breezy west winds pushed east through the Magic Valley into the Lower Snake River Plain. Given the fact that the guidance did not appear to handle todays system all that well, my preference here is to give the mid-shift a second look at the progs before pulling the trigger on the highlights for Friday.
A small break from the humid conditions tonight thanks to the cooler drier air that moves west to the AL/MS border.
A cold front will begin to slowly push through the area late tonight bringing cooler temperatures. There is some uncertainty on how far south the front will push through the region which will determine the dividing line between hot and cooler highs. Additionally, if the cold front does stall near the region it could result in some precipitation forming along and south of the boundary.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s at most island communities.
Meanwhile, a cold front over western Nebraska will push southeast towards central Kansas by early this evening.
(This afternoon through Friday night) A broad upper lvl trough remains situated over the Intermountain West as southwest flow aloft continues across W TX and SE NM.
The area remains on the western periphery of a large upper level low off southeast coast. A north to northeast flow around this system will bring some drier air into eastern portions of the area today into Friday as the upper low moves northwest. The higher rain chances today will be across southeast Mississippi where higher moisture levels reside. The upper low continues northwest on Friday with the highest rain chances remaining west of the area.
100 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. Low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
Otherwise, expect increasing clouds and a subsiding south to southeast wind and lows near or slightly warmer than last night.
At the surface a lee trough/dryline was located across the western High Plains.
Thereafter, high pressure will build over the region Friday and into the weekend, leading to a significant warmup.
A noticeable warm front is moving north through southern Minnesota with 70s ahead of the front and some lower 90s behind it. As a strong trough pushes north through the Dakotas, thunderstorms are expected to break out late this afternoon in eastern South Dakota and quickly merge into a line that will rapidly move across the forecast area through midnight or so.
The blocking pattern will begin to break down over the short term period.
343 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The current upper level pattern has a low to our east of the coast of FL/GA and a trough to our west giving us generally northwest flow. The low over the southeastern part of the US retrogrades and gets caught up into the upper level trough around the Great Lakes this weekend, while the ridge to our east builds into the area. This will bring more of the low 90s temperature days.
Although heights aloft will fall today as a large upper level low along the east coast shifts westward, low and mid level temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. 14 inches, lower cloud cover, and sinking air noted on vertical omega fields all suggests it will be another hot day with highs reaching the low 80s on the Plateau and mid 80s to low 90s elsewhere.
256 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 A very pleasant afternoon across Eastern KY as high pressure nosing down from upper New England remains in control. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 50s in some of the deeper valleys, to mid and upper 50s elsewhere. The low pressure system that has been lingering off the SE coast will start to slowly move inland on Friday, and as a result will throw some additional moisture into the area. The highest chances will be over the SE, while areas to the north across the Bluegrass have the best chance of staying dry. Afternoon high temps will generally be in the lower 80s.
Otherwise, no precip is expected the rest of today as dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and 50s east of the front, which has allowed temperatures to soar into the 80s to around 90. After the brief drying out today, moisture levels will begin increasing again on Friday as the persistant large upper level low along the southeast coast shifts further westward. As the upper low shifts north of our region and flow aloft becomes more northwesterly, precip chances will increase with scattered showers and storms possible throughout the day.
Given a similar weather pattern for Friday with the forecast area located between the upper low to our east upper ridge to our west, we'll likely see a repeat of storm development with daytime heating. /EC/ Friday night through Thursday: A large upper-level closed low will begin to lift north east and open up into an elongated trough over the southeast while simultaneously pushing a midlevel short wave across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1130 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Hot and humid conditions continue across the Mid-South this morning as an upper ridge remains located over the region. The ridge will begin to retrograde westward today. Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s at 3 AM with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. An upper level ridge dominates the area with north to northeast winds allowing for warmer temperatures. By tomorrow, the ridge over the area will weaken as it gets sandwiched between two systems. This weakening will allow temperatures to be a bit cooler with highs generally in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, the aforementioned low will be absorbed into the other upper level trough in Canada.
/issued 1130 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022/ Hot and humid conditions continue across the Mid-South this morning as an upper ridge remains located over the region. The ridge will begin to retrograde westward today. Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s at 3 AM with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. An upper level ridge dominates the area with north to northeast winds allowing for warmer temperatures. By tomorrow, the ridge over the area will weaken as it gets sandwiched between two systems. This weakening will allow temperatures to be a bit cooler with highs generally in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, the aforementioned low will be absorbed into the other upper level trough in Canada.
1202 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store, with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with highs mainly in the upper 90s. It will be another breezy day, with a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line bringing gusty south winds.
Upper low off the South Carolina coastline will attempt to rotate moisture into the forecast area through the day today. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 62 85 63 / 0 20 10 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 81 59 83 62 / 0 50 10 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 60 83 61 / 0 40 10 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 78 57 79 58 / 10 60 20 80 20.
Rain ongoing will continue to spread east as the low continues to wrap up and then eventually drift off to the east as a whole. This will place northeast Montana under the northwest quadrant of the low with a high chance for rain.
An upper trough lifts from UT into WY with upper ridging across TX with a cut off low off the FL/GA coast drifting slowly westward. The ridging over SETX will weaken slightly tonight and Friday. Temperatures again reach up into the lower to mid 90s during the afternoon.
239 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. On Friday, we lose the influence of the upper ridge. Weak convergence develops as we are sandwiched in between an upper low pressure system across the southeast U.