Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front, from about CBM to TVR will become stationary after 22/06Z. The stalled front will move back to the northwest Thursday as surface and mid level ridging strengthen back over the area from the east. Otherwise a warmer than normal and moister than normal airmass will remain much of east Mississippi spreading west again Thursday.
Coverage will gradually increase across the high country tonight and continue in Thursday. Models show the upper trough moving east and decreasing overnight as it nears Colorado from the west. In the lower levels southeasterly winds will dominate out on the eastern two-thirds of the plains tonight into Thursday. For temperatures, Thursday's highs are 2-4 C warmer than this afternoon's. The weather pattern for the upcoming can be characterized by upper level troughs moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast and the digging southeast into the Great Basin. Subsidence will move over the area Thursday night as an upper level trough lifts northeast of the Colorado.
Cold front still holding steady just off to our west, which is helping to keep us relatively dry, other than a few isolates showers from time-to- time. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 77 60 77 / 40 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 76 57 75 / 40 40 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 74 58 75 / 40 50 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 74 55 72 / 30 40 30 10.
Frontal zone then retreats north as warm front and softens the air mass compression over the area for perhaps only isolated showers on weaker convergent streaks Thursday.
This could provide some additional accumulating freezing rain, especially to parts of Pawnee, Osage, and Washington counties. Inbetween the two areas of measurable precipitation, drizzle or freezing drizzle potential will exist through much of the night and into tomorrow morning as well. As a result, parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma and western Arkansas that saw freezing rain/sleet earlier this afternoon will be unlikely to see any further freezing precipitation.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across South Florida tonight. /issued 335 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/ The large upper level ridge centered off to our northeast will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida. This ridge is continuing to strengthen which will lead to similar weather conditions for tonight into Thursday. With the area of high pressure strengthening, the pressure gradient will continue to increase as well which will lead to breezy easterly flow for Thursday. A weak disturbance will rotate around this area of high pressure, which will provide an increase in low level moisture later tonight into Thursday. The eastern side will remain closer to normal with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s on Thursday.
Chose to leave the counties bordering North Dakota out of the advisory for now, as temperatures are warmer and winds are very light. Water vapor showing a deep upper trough over the West with broad SW flow over the eastern half of the country. That would be in the low 30s and lower teens for Glasgow.
921 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 A cold front will pass through this evening before stalling out to our south Thursday.
Ridge is holding stronger than forecast by models and is resulting in less clouds over our region.
1045 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 A slow moving cold front will stall to the south overnight into Thursday.
The cold front that was over our northwest counties early this morning moved slowly eastward throughout the day and had cleared most of Middle TN by 21Z. Expect showers to increase in coverage tonight through Thursday morning as the low approaches.
Over northern Taf sites, patchy freezing light rain or drizzle will also be possible due to around freezing temperatures. With sfc temps hovering close to freezing, cannot rule out some light freezing rain this evening over part of N-Central AR.
Expansion of the low level thermal ridge will occur across northern OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary. Max temps will be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday at several locals.
The area will remain under the western edge of a low level ridge of high pressure, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary hanging to our north. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-105 range.
412 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
This potential convection and associated cloud cover should keep temps a few degrees cooler than are seen today.
Cold front now extends from the Quebec/ Ontario border thru Eastern Upper Michigan and Wisconsin into Central Iowa early this morning. but will come to an end by around sunset with loss of diurnal instability as well as the exit of the cold front. Temps will be noticeably not as warm today thanks to CAA in the wake of the cold front. High temps will range from the lower 70s across Eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt to the upper 70s near Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s.
357 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Low pressure crosses the area this morning. A cold front will cross through the region Saturday morning.
Cold front will slowly sag south and west across the area, and by Friday afternoon be located near a Limon to Scott City line. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, but still expecting lower to middle 90s, with upper 90s to lower 100s in far southwestern areas south of the front. An upper ridge of high pressure broadens from the Rockies across the Plains during the work week as an upper trough pushes into the northwestern CONUS. Weak disturbances rotating around the periphery of the high generate slight chances for showers and thunderstorms for at least a small portion of the region each day.
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Short term models have initialized well and are in good agreement as far as handling of the elongated trough slowly sagging southward through the forecast area. Proximity of the trough and weak impulses moving through the upper level flow, as well as weak surface boundary will continue chances for shower and thunderstorm development through the short term periods. Models push upper trough/surface wave further south tomorrow with the main focus south of an Atlanta to Athens line.
Upper level troughing will persist over the region. A weak front/trough will slowly sag south into our area over the weekend. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 90s with maximum heat indicies around 100.
448 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Little change in store for today as high pressure continues to sit over the Four Corners. The center of high pressure is still on track to shift slightly west today.
318 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Early this morning a frontal boundary extended from northeast Iowa into west central Kansas at 07Z with high pressure building in behind the front. Highs today will be cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front. The medium to extended range forecast will be dominated by a stout summertime ridge over the southwestern U. The effects of this ridge will be felt over northeast Kansas in the form of hot and humid weather interspersed with low chances for showers and storms.
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will result in another day of record or near record high temperatures today. The extreme heat also prompted an Excessive Heat Warning for today in the lower deserts from Tucson to Ajo where temperatures of 109 to 114 can be expected.
316 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 The upper ridge currently over the western U.
408 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms today into tonight.
341 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Should get a break in the precip chances for awhile today before a cold front approaches late in the day and during the evening. Once the front passes to our south later tonight, high pressure dropping southeast out of Canada should bring a dry and less humid weekend to the region. Surface dew points should fall back into the lower to mid 60s by Saturday afternoon, making it feel a bit more comfortable compared to what we have been experiencing lately. Under clear skies and calm winds, lows Saturday night could fall into the lower half of the 60s in many locations.
656 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms today into tonight.
659 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
329 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northern Michigan southwestward to central Iowa. Given dewpoints pooling in the lower 70s along the front, corresponding CAPE values will likely exceed 3000J/kg across the E/SE later today. to the lower 90s south of I-70.
323 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Weak low pressure will pass out to sea south of the region today. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the area on Saturday. High pressure will build south of the region Saturday night as a secondary cold front moves in from the northwest.
411 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A near persistent upper low that has brought showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth over the past several days had weakened into an open wave and dropped south into north MS early this morning. Rain chances to the north of this upper trof axis will remain limited today. A few isolated storms can't be ruled out nearer to the midlevel trof axis over north MS this afternoon. The overall pattern of a ridge in the western U.
A cold front across the Great Lakes this morning will push toward the area and be located near the Ohio River tonight.
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 The upper level pattern will remain fairly persistent through the weekend, with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough draped across the Eastern CONUS. The southern portion of the upper trough lags back to the southwest across the Lower MS Valley and into Texas, and continues to drop very slowly south while weakening. Energy from this disturbance will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the Central Plains in the vicinity of a weak cold front.
258 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Low pressure moving through Virginia tonight will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over northeast Pennsylvania. On Friday, a cold front moving into the northeast will trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area into Friday night.
533 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
Early morning surface analysis still had 1020mb ridge across the Gulf coast that will provide a light southwest to west wind that will maintain a warm moist airmass across our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis still had a weak upper level trough across our region which remain squeezed between a large 598dam high centered over the Four Corners region and a 593dam centered off the Georgia/Florida coast. The orientation of the axis of the upper level trough will lead to a focus of mainly afternoon and early convection across the southeast half of our CWA today. Afternoon Highs today will be mostly in the lower 90s, which is near seasonal norms.
Through the weekend, the upper ridge will remain parked in the Rockies and we will remain in NW flow aloft. A weak cold front will also try to backdoor its way through the region on Saturday, providing a focus area for showers and thunderstorms.
Strong high pressure aloft will remain the dominant feature across the western states through the upcoming weekend. Increasing moisture around the periphery of this high will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the next several days.
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from northern Michigan southwestward to central Iowa. Given dewpoints pooling in the lower 70s along the front, corresponding CAPE values will likely exceed 3000J/kg across the E/SE later today. to the lower 90s south of I-70.
High pressure just west of the 4-corners area of the country will shift a bit today through Saturday and the monsoon flow into the Great Basin will increase. Once the trough axis passes, the high center will slide west towards the UT/NV border providing a more suitable moisture track to get some wetting storms into the LKN CWFA. Through Saturday, it appears the main monsoon stream of moisture will still be shunted east over UT however eastern Nevada will benefit from a secondary stream splitting to the west of the ridge axis.
Models remain consistent showing little variation in the overall strength and positioning of the upper level high pressure ridge that remains near the Four Corners Region of the Desert Southwest today. Saturday may actually warm another 1 to 2 degrees as the high pressure center shifting NW towards the Nevada/Utah border. And while morning low temperatures are likely to start out a little warmer due to persistent overnight cloud cover, the afternoon heating potential may be offset by increasing monsoonal moisture and the development of afternoon thunderstorms.
Where the trough has slid through, winds have increased out of the N-NW and have occasionally become gusty as drier air is trying to move into the area. For Friday, high pressure will build over the region and will likely lead to a dry and generally mostly sunny day. With the northwesterly flow aloft pulling cooler air into the area tonight (850mb temps falling from 20-23C to 15-18C), highs tomorrow should be near normal east of the James River Valley (lower 80s) and a little above normal to the west (upper 80s to around 90).
213 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front late today and tonight.
Outside relief provided by rain and/or a thick deck of clouds, temperatures will be in the warmer side. Early morning echoes on KBYX indicate that showers well south of the Lower Keys may pose a concern for sub-VFR at KEYW early this morning.
450 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Weak low pressure will pass out to sea south of the region today. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the area on Saturday. High pressure will build south of the region Saturday night as a secondary cold front moves in from the northwest.
325 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Four Corners region for the next few days.
Seeing another round of showers and storms this afternoon ahead of the approaching upper level trough. This activity will diminish with sunset this evening, but as the trough axis moves into the Tennessee Valley overnight, isolated to scattered activity will be possible across the north, especially after midnight.
305 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Temperatures will heat up through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure strengthens. Heat will be the main story for the weekend as high pressure slowly builds westward.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive marine layer push into the coast, but the low clouds are having a tough time making it much further inland than the coastal ranges. The forecast area will remain under southwest flow aloft, with a very strong ridge centered over the southwest United States and a deep low in the Gulf of Alaska.
Low to mid level high pressure ridge axis will be a little further south today than 24 hours ago with moisture levels near to below average combined with ridge aloft, which will both limit convective coverage today. With slightly stronger flow in the low levels, main forcing boundaries will be the west coast and east coast sea breezes, with the west coast more dominant given the prevailing west- southwest 0-3km flow at 5-10 kt. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The next two days will be the hottest days of this current stretch as the upper ridge over the region strengthens. This has prompted the heat advisory for the lower Snake Plain as high temperatures push to around 103 each day and low temperatures Saturday morning struggle to cool to 70. As with the past few days, the exception will be the higher terrain south of the Snake Plain and mountains east of McCall where isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will form each afternoon. The west-central mountains will also see a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in response to an approaching upper trough.
624 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Aviation A cold front will push through the region this morning resulting in thunderstorms. An area of high pressure then moves in for Saturday resulting in lower temperatures.
150 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Friday.
Strong high pressure centered over the 4-Corners through the weekend will give Norcal a 4 day heat wave in the Sac area and about a 6 day heat wave in the Nrn Sac Vly with triple digit max temps. Slight cooling is forecast each day in the Delta influenced areas as 5H heights lower in advance of an approaching Pacific trof. The trof should rejuvenate the Delta Breeze Mon morning possibly bringing some stratus into the inland areas along with cooler temps.
233 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A bit of a break from the Summer heat today, thanks to a weak cold front which moved through last night. Otherwise, today should feature slightly cooler temperatures with a considerably drier feel to the air by the afternoon thanks to falling dewpoints in the 50s. We should still see slight redevelopment of afternoon CU, especially over the Buffalo Ridge. Another sneaky area to monitor for a few showers would be the Buffalo Ridge areas of MN/IA after midnight. Mostly dry and very warm weather conditions continue as the large upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners slowly moves northeastward into the Central/High Plains. With the ridge in place, northwest flow aloft,temperatures will again be above normal through the period.
1126 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Current surface map shows weak cold front backing into eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska. Secondary trof/dry line dropping into northwest South Dakota.
1123 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The strong ridge over the western U. Convective development should originate over the higher elevations will most storms remaining dry, or with only very narrow rain shafts.
127 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. Will show this decrease in PoPs, with the southeastern ridges holding on the low PoPs through dawn. With ample moisture in the lower levels, light surface winds and decreasing cloud cover, its a good bet that some of the fog could become locally dense. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
Hot daytime temperatures and dry conditions will continue under the control of high pressure. The lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley will once again near or exceed the 100 degree F mark with relative humidity values below 15 percent.
Evening analysis shows an ill-defined surface pattern, but a longwave trough positioned just to the NW over west Tennessee and Kentucky. Ahead of the trough axis, another round of convection is ongoing, although most of these storms are markedly weaker than what has been occurring the last few days. Rain from the approaching longwave trough is not a complete slam- dunk forecast, but high PoPs remain warranted given the available forcing and persistently-moist atmosphere. Otherwise, fog may be a factor ahead of the rain given the low-level moisture and light (though not completely decoupled) winds. Again, this activity will be tied to heating and any mesoscale boundaries, so have favored the higher PoPs to be for NE Alabama and locations south of the Tennessee River.
500 MB ridge sitting over Utah continues to be the dominant player in our weather, keeping temperatures warmer than normal, while rotating areas of increased mid-level moisture northward in monsoonal flow over the Rockies. We trend about 5 degrees warmer on Saturday as the axis of high pressure shifts eastward and temperatures aloft warm which means triple digits or close to it from Billings eastward into the Plains. Strong upper level ridge will continue to dominate the western CONUS, bringing us persistently hot temperatures for the foreseeable future. Moisture rotating around the ridge, from the monsoon which is arriving in the southwest, will bring us daily opportunities for high-based diurnal thunderstorms, at least for the high terrain.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Brownsville radar indicates a few coastal showers developing and moving northwest along the lower Texas coast this morning. Deep tropical moisture, in combination with an 500mb inverted trough, and light to moderate southeasterly winds will enhance convection along the seabreeze today and again Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 70s across the ranchlands to upper 70s near the coast under partly cloudy skies.
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. Will show this decrease in PoPs, with the southeastern ridges holding on the low PoPs through dawn. With ample moisture in the lower levels, light surface winds and decreasing cloud cover, its a good bet that some of the fog could become locally dense. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
A cold front will pass this morning with cold advection increasing into the afternoon. High temps near 80F expected but becoming cooler near Lake MI.
131 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 High pressure will keep the area dry, but cool through the weekend.
309 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A weak cold front passing through Oklahoma this morning will bring a bit milder and drier air mass, at least for a day. During Sunday the upper pattern changes such that Oklahoma is open to several waves from the southwest originating from a large scale trough over the southwestern U.
A cold front will spread rain from north to south across much of the region tonight and Saturday morning.
344 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 No issues of significance in the short term as high pressure over the eastern Gulf remains in place. The high is expected to begin to shift to the east, over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend, which will allow for a slight increase in moisture by Sunday, albeit not enough to allow for any mentionable rain chances at this point.
411 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 After two consecutive days of record-breaking temperatures, we should finally see a bit of relief as a weak cold front pushes in from the northeast through the day.
Much warmer conditions than previous nights with many areas remaining in the 50s at this hour.
/22/ Another night of above normal temps expected tonight as southerly flow out ahead of a low pressure system centered over the Great Plains slowly makes its way east. This will continue to feed warmer and more moist air (PWs ~1 inch) into the region, which will help low-mid level clouds to increase from the west overnight. This will help lows be considerably warmer (~10-15 degrees above normal) in the mid-upper 50s in the east to low 60s in the west. Winds could gust as high as 20-25mph or so, with some of the higher gusts in the Delta. As better moisture moves in, expect there to be enough lift and surface convergence, especially in the Highway 82 corridor, for some showers to develop.
340 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 High pressure extended from Ontario and Quebec down into the eastern states early this morning. The high will build slowly to the south and east over the weekend, as low pressure passes across the southeastern states and off the Carolina coast. The high is expected to remain over the eastern states during the early and middle parts of the new week as the strong low meanders over the western North Atlantic.