Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Routine summer time weather across Northwest California will continue as high pressure aloft maintains clear skies and warm to locally hot temperatures across the interior. High pressure will continue to get shunted east and north away from the West Coast, though another ridge will build in from the southwest starting later in the week. Though, an overall downward trend is forecast through the end of the work week as a weak trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and promotes stronger onshore flow.
Otherwise, expect generally uneventful weather today into Thursday as weak high pressure builds across the area. GEFS IVT plots show the plume of deeper moisture extending into the area on the periphery of the subtropical ridge to the southeast will continue to get shunted east as an upper level trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes through late week with a drier, more comfortable airmass gradually filtering across the region. Seasonably warm temps in the 80s are likely today before slight cooling occurs for Thursday with the influence of the upper trough deepening to the east. The holiday weekend continues to look dry and increasingly warm as the upper low across the eastern Great Lakes slowly noses east and broad surface ridging occupies the Upper Midwest.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over Texarkana this morning will build west into the region today. The ridge will continue to drift west on Thursday. Best chance today looks to be out west over the higher elevations where day time heating and orographic lift combine. 0 inch is possible in the watch area today but that should be on the high side of estimates. Though it remains below normal temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today in the 80s and continue to warm into the 90s on Thursday.
Another record breaking hot day is in store for the Northern Rockies today as the ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature. The ridge of high pressure moves off to the east on Thursday, but warm area will remain over the region. Once the low levels moisten up, then these storms will be capable of moderate to heavy rainfall.
A stagnating trough continues to dominate the weather in the Midwest as scattered showers dot the CWA this morning. Overnight, dewpoints remained in the low 70s with overcast skies, resulting in another muggy start to the day. Cloud cover will persist through the day as more moisture builds ahead of a cold front that's expected to arrive Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as result but humid conditions will endure, making it feel quite sticky. Thursday will finally bring a change to the rainy pattern as a cold front sweeps through the region.
A trough moving into the PacNW will bring slightly lower heights along with increased onshore winds today. That will result in slightly cooler daytime highs. We will continue to see the cooling trend into Thursday with highs once again a few degrees cooler.
High pressure north of the marine area will maintain east to southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today, with a brief onshore sea breeze component possibly developing near shore during mid to late afternoon.
By the end of the week, a digging upper trough will push towards the region, driving a cold front into the area this weekend.
Expect thunderstorm activity this afternoon with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, lightning and gusty outflow winds across the high country. Short story up front, the current weather pattern is going to hang around for the foreseeable future with thunderstorms starting late morning, becoming more wide spread across the high country through the afternoon and tapering off in the evening. Within this weak flow regime, water vapor imagery shows a Rex block pattern with the low over Utah and the high over Alberta/Saskatchewan, and an omega block pattern with a high over east Texas and the associated lows just south of Big Bend TX and New Orleans.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper-level ridge will continue to remain over the area through tomorrow. As a stronger cold front moves in from KS overnight, rainfall will transition from north to south through the day tomorrow.
High pressure over the Atlantic continues to keep a fairly moist airmass flowing into the SE US with southeast sfc winds and PWAT values around 2" through the lower OH River and MS River Valleys. The above mentioned trough will continue amplifying as low pressure forms over the Ontario/Quebec border and heads towards the Great Lakes. Lower heights, more clouds and a cold front approaching from the north will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly Thursday afternoon, with widespread showers and storms in the night. High temperatures should be a tad cooler Thu, rising into the mid/upper 80s.
Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 70s. With the mid and upper level ridges continuing to deepen over the state (from the NE) and low-level moisture tapering off a little, rain chances should be slightly lower tomorrow and temperatures a bit warmer. Forecast high temperatures tomorrow will be mostly in the lower 90s. with lows tomorrow night in the lower to mid 70s (near 80 at the coast).
Overall the best chance of rain through the day starts to shift mainly to our far southwest counties as a backdoor cold front starts to move into eastern Kansas. This cooler and drier air will be what moves the rain eventually more into Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico through the night on Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 80s.
354 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Periodic showers and storms will continue until passage of a cold front on Thursday. All are in response to an upr trough/cold front sagging southward out of the Great Lakes Region. Aloft, ridging attempts to intrude into the area cutting off moisture to the area from the northwest. However, the pattern aloft yields a bit to a semi blocking off the Atlantic coast. This keeps the upper low meandering a bit longer.
252 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 A cold front is stalled roughly along the a line from KOTM to KMLI to KSQI early this afternoon. Temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area with a few locations in rain in the lower 70s. As the 500 mb trough sinks southward, the flow aloft will transition to northerly tonight into Thursday with some lift arriving during the morning and afternoon along with some cooling aloft leading to the risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Key Messages: 1) Dry weather returns to us as high pressure settles over the region.
The high will be more to the east on Thursday, with a cold front approaching from the northwest.
Weak low pressure will move north of the waters this morning and be replaced with offshore high pressure. A thermal trough will then develop along the south Oregon coast and strengthen over time resulting in moderate to strong north winds and steep wind driven seas mainly south of Cape Blanco later Wednesday through the weekend. Also with the thermal trough expected to remain strong and persist into the weekend, further adjustments were made to the small craft conditions.
/TW/ Flat upper ridging will begin to break down today as a longwave northern stream trough drops into the Great Lakes region. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Upper ridging remains in place over the southeastern CONUS as remnants of what was TS Danny slowly move west across the region. Hot temperatures will prevail on Thursday thanks to subtropical ridging sticking around. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s and highs will climb into the lower 90s for most areas within the CWA.
A cold front will enter the region sometime during the day on Thu, but the winds outside of tstms should remain rather light despite the eventual wind shift to the north. Highs will be in the lower 80s Thu and Fri as lows dip into the 60s (with a few northern upper 50s) Thu night, and middle 50s to lower 60s Fri night.
Since instability will be low today with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points around 60, the potential for strong or severe storm development is low. The warming is very modest, just 1 degree Celsius, and the guidance blend plus bias correction suggested highs in the low to mid to upper 80s.
Despite temps staying below 90F, dewpoints have remained in the low 70s, making for quite a muggy day across the region. Expect to see showers and storms continue this afternoon and evening, primarily across southern IN and north central KY as the sfc cold front currently stretching across northern IL/IN continues to sag southward tonight and interacts with our moist airmass. As we head into Thursday night, expect showers and storms to taper off from northwest to southeast as the surface cold front finally pushes through the area.
204 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Water vapory imagery this afternoon indicates the mid/upper-level anticyclone drifting westward over the southern Great Plains, with a weak impulse rotating around the western periphery/over the CWA this afternoon. At the surface, a diffuse trough, associated with a broad/weak cyclone detected in northwestern Oklahoma, was draped across the CWA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery and nearby webcam view(s) have shown that the majority of the cumulus field is flat, owing to subsidence/drier air from the presence of the mid/upper-level anticyclone moving overhead.
1128 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure continues over ID/MT and a low has formed over Utah, with Wyoming in between the two. A majority of the state will be in the drier, warmer pattern of the high, while the low will push into portions of southwestern Wyoming. Highs will be at least 5 degrees warmer on Wednesday and a few more on Thursday. Wednesday will be mainly dry and a little warmer.
Thereafter expect widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with high temperatures generally a few degrees cooler than average. Convective development ongoing early this afternoon as expected, initially across the higher terrain with gradual development in valley locations. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms have the potential to linger well into the evening hours aided by the inverted trough over far eastern sections of the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb high pressure will continue settling in over northern Texas this afternoon. The subsidence associated with this high will continue to help dissipate lingering shower and storm activity across Deep South Texas. The aforementioned 500mb high will also allow for drier air at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere to filter in, allowing for more sunshine on Thursday as well as slightly warmer temperatures.
Due to the copious amounts of cloud cover over the island chain from all of the shower activity, temperatures have remained in the lower to mid 80s. An upper-level low currently situated over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep ridging at bay through tomorrow. As this upper- level low drifts southwestward starting tomorrow afternoon, ridging will begin to build back into the area.
Strengthening mid/upper level ridge should be more of a factor in limiting TSRA development during the afternoon tomorrow. /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/ With the aid of some mid level ridging to our ne/n and slightly lower PW's, temps should be a bit higher and precip coverage a touch lower than we've seen the past couple days. With mid level ridging situated across cntl Tx and being on the subsident side of an inverted trof stretching across the cntl Gulf, this time period will likely be the driest part of the week for most locations (though still expect some sct seabreeze activity generally south of I-10/US59 on Thurs).
341 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through tonight.
205 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Upper ridge will shift quickly east with deep layer southerly flow becoming established over the front range.
The amplified upper level pattern continues with an anomalously strong ridge over the Northern Rockies and the western Canadian Prairies. The upper level ridge axis will slowly continue east tomorrow with high temperatures across western and central North Dakota into the upper 80s to mid 90s expected, along with mostly sunny skies and diurnally driven fair weather cumulus. Lows may be slightly warmer than previous nights due to more persistent southeast flow, down to the mid 50s to low 60s.
An upper level trough slowly slides southeast into the northeastern U. while upper level ridging remains rooted in place over the southwestern Atlantic and south-central U. This gradually shifts to southerly then westerly as the high shifts east. Temperatures stay pleasant for this time of year, with highs in the middle to upper 80's and lows in the lower 70's.
On Thursday, an upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across the region. High temperatures will be warmer, although still below seasonal normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Updates this morning mainly regard some adjustments to PoPs to target peaks and lulls in fairly disorganized weak convection due to clusters of activity along a weak trough/col area through central IL. A stagnating trough continues to dominate the weather in the Midwest as scattered showers dot the CWA this morning. Overnight, dewpoints remained in the low 70s with overcast skies, resulting in another muggy start to the day. Cloud cover will persist through the day as more moisture builds ahead of a cold front that's expected to arrive Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as result but humid conditions will endure, making it feel quite sticky. Thursday will finally bring a change to the rainy pattern as a cold front sweeps through the region.
With the thicker cloud cover highs were just a few degrees cooler in a few locations, but overall the low to mid 80s on track.
Values well above the 100 degree mark exist across the region, with the "cooler" temperatures ranging in the 90s. Little relief will occur tonight with overnight lows, as those are anticipated to remain abnormally warm for yet another night as the dominating ridge of high pressure remains locked over the Pacific Northwest.
132 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper high pressure will build westward into northern Texas through sunrise Thursday.
Skies will clear after sunset and calm winds will allow for temperatures to drop into the low 60s outside the Twin Cities metro and upper 50s across portions of western Wisconsin, where patchy fog or mist may develop again overnight in low-lying areas. Thursday's weather will be similar to today's, but a few degrees warmer as heights begin to rise aloft. Temperatures take on a warming trend over the holiday weekend as ridging over the western US begins to move east in the central and northern CONUS. The ridge will become less amplified as it center over the region, but upper level height and temperature anomalies still suggest this will be an unusually strong ridge for July.
Cooler weather is expected over the weekend. Occasional showers and storms will continue into Thursday as a cold front crosses and the aforementioned upper trough continues to deepen and pivots over the forecast area. Aloft, ridging attempts to intrude into the area cutting off moisture to the area from the northwest. However, the pattern aloft yields a bit to a semi blocking off the Atlantic coast. This keeps the upper low meandering a bit longer.
The high resolution HRRR, ARW and WRF all project isolated convection over these areas this afternoon.
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Wednesday: As upper level ridging shifts east today, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms activity to linger through the day.
Cumulus is developing over the higher terrain of the plateau and eastern Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia with temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s at most locations. Expect isolated showers and storms in the valleys and scattered convection across the higher elevations.
140 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop today and continue through Thursday as a cold front travels from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
Skies are expected to clear overnight, with drier air and light winds allowing temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 50s across the north, with lows around 60 across central and east-central Wisconsin. High pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as northerly winds bring cooler and drier air in from Canada. Otherwise temperatures will be cooler on Thursday, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 70s across north- central Wisconsin, with highs around 80 across central Wisconsin, and highs of 65 to 70 near the lakeshore.
Any showers that do initiate will dissipate around sunset with much cooler air advecting into the area going into the weekend as surface and upper level flow turns near northerly as a strong upper level moves into the Northeastern United States.
The convection and cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler across portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi.
With the trough axis shifting east some, southeast Iowa has not seen the widespread precipitation shield that was in place yesterday, however scattered convection has bubbled within the weak convergent zone across the south. Once again the lower level conditions exhibit 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE with decent surface vorticity, supporting funnel cloud development with any convective activity. By Thursday the trough retreats towards the great lakes region, removing much of the convective focus. High pressure builds into the area for the end of the week and into the holiday weekend. Initial northeast flow will allow for low dewpoints and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. The large thermal ridge translates east later in the weekend, increasing southerly flow and moisture transport back into the state.
Overall the best chance of rain through the day starts to shift mainly to our far southwest counties as a backdoor cold front starts to move into eastern Kansas. This cooler and drier air will be what moves the rain eventually more into Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico through the night on Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 80s. As we move toward the holiday weekend, the aforementioned upper trough over the Midwest continues to deepen over the country east of the Mississippi River. Farther west, a broad area of high pressure will cover much of the Rockies with increasing westerly flow along and north of the Canadian border.
Western Nebraska remains on the periphery of both the record setting upper ridge over Western US and an upper trough settled over the Great Lakes. A subtle wave embedded in the trough combined with an upslope component at H85 and some instability has led to the scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Expect most of the activity to dissipate after sunset with the loss of low- level instability, but another wave is possible overnight as some storms move off the higher terrain and into SW Neb.
304 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 (Issued 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: A back door cold front will drop through the area tonight, with isolated showers and a rumble or two of thunder possible behind the front, mainly in the east. Moisture will be on the decrease through the day behind the back door cold front, which is expected to have moved through by daybreak. Temps will be warmest west Thu, as onshore winds and cooler temps aloft will keep it cooler east.
Additional storms are beginning to organize and fire along outflow from previous storms, with this especially being the case in central Georgia, so will likely see coverage slowly increasing across the area from southeast to northeast as these outflows continue to be dominated by the low level flow from SE to SSE likely associated with a seabreeze type front that is being enhanced by TS cold pools. Even on the higher end of guidance, NBM 95th percentiles generally would paint a worse case scenario of 3" or so, likely driven by more convective allowing models, which would not overwhelm the area.
For today, the Tri-State area remains under southwest flow aloft with an upper low over western Utah, high pressure over Texas and an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Moisture is being pulled into area from the Pacific due to return flow around the high to the south.
316 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 The main focus for this forecast is showers/thunderstorms today/tomorrow and warmer temperatures this weekend. The massive west coast ridge is building northeast into the central CONUS and the Great Lakes trough is slowly sliding southeast while Gulf moisture continues to stream into the central Plains. By Thursday morning, the Great Lakes trough should continue to dive further southeast. Surface ridging will slowly build south as a result. Temperatures should be warmer tomorrow, especially north, as skies begin to clear and solar insolation increases.
The high resolution HRRR and WRF models show isolated convection tomorrow afternoon, but with less coverage than today.
As for Thursday, upper level trough and cold front will impact mid state as surface cold front will move into OH River Valley by afternoon hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move in ahead of cold front during morning and especially afternoon hours. A few strong to potentially a severe thunderstorm will be possible with instability still in place and shear picking up slightly being closer to the front and the upper trough dipping southward towards mid state region.
An upper level high sits over central Texas through the short term period while mid level moisture decreases based on forecast soundings and time series graphs. With more breaks in the overall cloud cover and less shower activity in place, expect high temperatures to climb a few degrees more than previous days with the Hill Country reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s with rest of the area in the lower to mid 90s.
119 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through today.
259 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Warm and humid conditions will give way to widespread showers and thunderstorms today with cooler weather making a return by the weekend. Cooler air aloft gradually infiltrates the region yielding a more unstable regime going into tonight and the early part of tomorrow. More organized showers will return by afternoon on Thursday as another wave associated with the upper low digs southeastward. Showers chances will diminish some, but linger well into Thursday night as the upper cutoff low continues its descent into the Lower Great Lakes.
Thursday may start a few degrees warmer, so highs also look to be a few degrees warmer. With minimal wind, hard to foresee much warmer highs than that. Starting July, a ridge is going to dive into the northern great plains with temperatures increasing underneath it into the mid to upper 90s throughout eastern ND and northwestern MN.
Later tonight, a wave centered over SW NE will slide southeast atop the upper ridge centered over Texas, and is expected to enhance precip development across northeast OK and northwest AR after midnight tonight. At the same time, a deepening trough in the Great Lakes region will eventually force a weak cold front into the area Thursday with an overall trend focusing storm chances farther to the south by afternoon and evening.
Chances for convection will continue especially across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee for the remainder of the night as convection that is occurring across Missouri near the vicinity of the approaching cold front begins to sink south into the Mid-South. The cold front will sink south into the Mid-South Thursday into Thursday Night.
First off for tonight, expecting mostly clear skies and light winds, so leaned a bit towards the cooler end guidance with the dry air in place. A sharp ridge will build over the Plains for the holiday weekend.