Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An occluded, cutoff low pressure system sits along the Gulf of Mexico coastline, and will slowly meander westward through the short term period. Near the ground, a high pressure system around New England will provide persistent upslope flow out of the east, which when reinforced with light, steady precipitation, will continue to build in wedge conditions throughout the area through the short term forecast. Under a near-tropical/moist adiabatic thermo profile, with cooler air near the ground, instability will be very limited over the next couple of days, even when accounting for MUCAPE from warm, moist air gliding over the wedge front.
611 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will be situated east of the region tonight. There is some decent upper support pushing up into the area on Saturday, so current precipitation chances might be a little low, however several models are trying to keep rain chances lower so did not go on the higher end at this time.
A second cold front will come through late this evening and will bring an overall gloomy and drizzly period from tonight through tomorrow due to upslope winds. Tomorrow morning and afternoon Increased cloud cover with light rain or drizzle and cooler temperatures are expected throughout Saturday. The cooler temperatures and higher dew points will bring low ceilings and visibility of 3 miles or less in El Paso County, particularly in Colorado Springs.
618 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Now through Saturday night) The main nearby feature will be an upper low over the North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast. Weak ridging will build into West Texas and will intervene with the upper low associated with Hurricane Kay farther to the west, but a few high clouds will still make it over the area. Unsettled weather will be associated with the upper feature over Louisiana, but drier, more stable conditions will prevail to the west of the low and over the South Texas region. The NHC does not expect tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf in the short term.
653 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Dry and warm tonight and Saturday with high pressure aloft. Highs will be slightly less hot in the lower and mid 90s Saturday.
Have lowered overnight lows a few degrees in the normally cooler locations, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time. Afternoon convection on the western periphery of the upper low may spread into portions of northwest AR tomorrow, although any coverage continues to appear low. Additionally, the cold front associated with the passing trough will enter NE OK Saturday mid afternoon and sweep southward across the forecast area Saturday night.
It still appears a weak prefrontal trough feature will shift winds more northeasterly during the day tomorrow, but speeds will remain light at 5-10 mph. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ Mid-level ridging will continue to keep quiet and warm weather in place across North and Central Texas through Saturday.
Northwest winds will bring cooler temperatures, haze and areas of smoke today to northern and portions of central Nevada. As an exiting trough to the north is replaced by a brief ridge, northwest flow and slightly warmer weekend temperatures can be expected. Some cooler valleys will drop into the 30s. Saturday will see moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Kay, make its way into the lower and mid levels in central Nevada. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s across areas of central Nevada, while some warmer highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected across areas of northern Nevada. Lows will be a bit warmer Saturday evening in the 50s for most, with cooler temperatures in the 40s across NE Nevada.
Expect this to continue to occur through the overnight period and possibly becoming just a bit heavier, as an upper low continues to spin over Louisiana and Mississippi. Decent convergence/lift should continue on the eastern side of this upper low based on isentropic upglide seen in model forecasts.
819 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A large area of high pressure at the surface and aloft over the northeast U.
703 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A mid/upper trough was evident on water vapor imagery stretching from Manitoba/Saskatchewan south and southwestward into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. A cold front also extended southward across the Northern and Central Plains bisecting northwest Kansas this afternoon. This cold front is progged to move south across the region tonight bringing increasing chances for showers and storms late tonight through early Saturday evening before a drier more stable post- frontal regime becomes entrenched across the area.
1227 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Tonight through Saturday Night) The upper low continues to fill and expand bringing back on last good chance for rainfall along and east of I-49 during our Saturday afternoon. We lowered several lows where clear skies will allow us to radiate down to Tds which are still in the low to mid 60s. The clouds east will keep air slightly warmer and wetter.
1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Now through Saturday night) The main nearby feature will be an upper low over the North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast. Weak ridging will build into West Texas and will intervene with the upper low associated with Hurricane Kay farther to the west, but a few high clouds will still make it over the area. Unsettled weather will be associated with the upper feature over Louisiana, but drier, more stable conditions will prevail to the west of the low and over the South Texas region. The NHC does not expect tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf in the short term.
Temperatures yesterday were about as expected, with daytime highs in the lower and mid 60s up near the SD border ranging to around 90 near the KS and MO borders. Today will be much cooler for southeast NE and southwest IA.
(Saturday through Sunday) Unfortunately, it still looks like today may be the last shot at organized rain across the region for some time as low pressure continues to pull NW. This low will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours, aided by peak daytime heating. Given the placement and progression of this low pressure, the best rain chances into the afternoon should be found along and east of I-49, with lesser chances west. This low-pressure should quickly get the boot into the Sunday, as a deep trough begins digging through the Midwest. The rain chances Sunday will be tied to the cold front tagging along with this trough, with isolated rain chances possible along and south if I-30 Sunday afternoon.
The further west you go, the warmer the temperatures, yet many valleys of western Montana and higher valleys of central Idaho are hovering very close to freezing. Saturday night will prove to be another near-freezing or at- freezing night for locations closest to the Divide. Elsewhere, low temperatures Saturday morning should be a bit warmer. A trend in warmer temperatures will begin Sunday and last through roughly the middle of this coming week.
220 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced upper trough axis over the Dakotas extending southward into western Nebraska. A decent line of showers/storms was moving eastward out ahead of this upper trough. This upper trough will move slowly eastward and dig a little more south with an embedded PV wave moving across northern Kansas this afternoon, and pivoting eastward into northern Missouri by late tonight. Daytime temperatures will be much cooler especially across central/south central Kansas under the clouds and precipitation.
Upper trough axis continues to work its way through the region. At the surface, post cold frontal air mass is well entrenched over the region as expansive high pressure continues to slide into the northern High Plains. Sunday should be slightly warmer than today with coldest temps aloft now pushing to the east. Key Messages ------------ *Dry into mid-week with showers possible mid to late week *Slightly above normal temperatures *Impacts minimal Period begins quiet with an upper low southeast of the region. As this feature slowly propagates eastward through the period, upper ridging builds into the northern plains through mid-week. Cluster analysis indicates that uncertainty still remains with speed and strength of the upper ridging and timing/strength of upper waves within zonal/southwest flow aloft.
The FA is in for a roller coaster ride of wx condns through the short-term, as low-lvl moisture and humidity wl be on the rise, and quickly at that as the aforementioned upper-lvl tropical influence stalls out near the state invof a digging longwave trof from the Nrn US/Canada. Sun morning and through the remainder of the PD, a strong and progressive H500 trof is fcst to quickly dig S/wrd into the Cntrl US, and eject over the Midwest/Great Lakes.
Regardless, additional showers continue to develop across the area in response to lift from the upper trough. This will be an effective setup for efficient radiative cooling, therefore tonightâs temperatures were nudged towards the lower end of guidance.
Forecast continues to be on track as high pressure remains in control across the area. Expecting a mix of clouds and light winds overnight, with temperatures forecast to be mainly in the low to mid 40s. Current forecast on track as high pressure continues to settle over the region. Winds will continue to be light and the cooler and drier air will see temps in the low 40s, with a few isolated pockets of upper 30s in the overnight hours. Saturday night will most likely be cooler than tonight with lows falling more efficiently with clear skies and the dry airmass.
(Today and tonight) A complex upper-level pattern remains in place over the US with post- TC Kay off the SW coast of California, a low hanging out on the Gulf coast, and an upper trough over the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is positioned over the Texas Panhandle from north of Bootleg to Amarillo to near Canadian as of 3 am. This cold front is expected to continue south and will be through much of the area by around noon. The upper trough to our north and Post TC Kay to our west are expected to continue pushing mid-level moisture towards the area throughout today. Thunderstorms should become showers by late in the evening as the cold front pushes through, and much of the CAPE is depleted.
A cold front pushed across south central Nebraska this morning as is currently moving across north central Kansas. the upper level low that develops behind our system will slowly progress east. with ridging across the plains in its wake.
Plentiful insolation today will allow highs to climb into the low-mid 90s this afternoon. A weak pre-frontal trough will emerge over Central Texas by mid morning once the boundary layer mixes out that is effectively a separation between the dry airmass over North Texas and the moist airmass over South/Southwest Texas. A quick moving upper trough will swing across the Central Plains late this afternoon and tonight and drive the trailing end of a cold front south. No precip is expected along the front due to the prefrontal trough keeping the moisture ahead of the front pretty scoured. Unfortunately, there should be enough sunshine across Central Texas before peak heating to allow highs to climb into the low 90s once again.
A mid/upper trough was evident on water vapor imagery stretching from Manitoba/Saskatchewan south and southwestward into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. A cold front also extended southward across the Northern and Central Plains bisecting northwest Kansas this afternoon. This cold front is progged to move south across the region tonight bringing increasing chances for showers and storms late tonight through early Saturday evening before a drier more stable post- frontal regime becomes entrenched across the area.
Have lowered overnight lows a few degrees in the normally cooler locations, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time.
An upper level ridge will rebuild over the region over the short term. With slightly warmer temperatures possible, smoke may keep temperatures a few degrees lower than forecast. Today's cool surface air mass and supporting upper trough will move off to the east tonight as an upper ridge approaches from the Pacific. This will lead to a warming trend that will peak on Sunday when the ridge passes overhead.
1227 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Dry and warm tonight and Saturday with high pressure aloft. Highs will be slightly less hot in the lower and mid 90s Saturday.
An upper trough axis at H5 extended through central and southwest WY. An area of upslope flow was generating drizzle along the front range of CO, while downstream of the upper trough, an area of showers and thunderstorms were currently focused from south central into east central NE and northwest IA. On Sunday, the upper trough and closed low will move into the Great Lakes and Midwest as upper ridging as weak warm air advection kicks in.
404 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure will continue to drift east of the area today as low pressure organizes to the west.
344 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Pattern change has begun across the region early this morning with low level moisture surging northward due to a closed upper level low along the Gulf Coast region. However, this upper level low has begun to weaken and will eventually be absorbed by a northern stream system. By tonight an approaching cold front associated with a strong area of low pressure anchored over Hudson Bay and a deepening upper level trough over the northern/central Plains, will begin to slide to the southeast into the forecast area.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late in the day Sunday into Sunday night with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Weak surface ridging and the cool/dry air mass will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s tonight.
1234 AM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Atmospheric moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will be responsible for elevated rain chances this weekend. Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. High temperatures this afternoon will be twelve to fourteen degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon.
(Today through Sunday) A large upper low is centered over eastern Louisiana tonight with moisture streaming northward on the eastern side of the low. The upper low will weaken through the day and become an open wave overnight. At the same time, a deep trough will be moving east out of the central plains. The southern energy will be absorbed into the larger scale trough on Sunday. The large trough will be dragging a cold front through our area late Sunday.
The increased moisture coupled with slightly cooler mid-level temps may yield enough modest instability to support a few diurnal showers mainly near the I-69 corridor.
Cold front will bring a brief chance for showers/thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday.
250 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 06Z surface data has the strong cold front running from northeast Wisconsin, to Lamoni, IA and then southwest into the Oklahoma panhandle. The cold front should reach the Mississippi river around mid-morning and clear the area by late afternoon. It will be much cooler with overnight lows mainly in the 50s. An elongated low to mid level Fgen band of rain, moderate to heavy at times with possibly embedded thunder, will continue to shift eastward through the area on Sunday as the elevated warm, moist conveyor belt is shunted eastward ahead of an approaching closed upper low. Sunday afternoon and evening should transition to spotty showers and possibly intermittent light rain/drizzle with any low clouds as the low move into the region.
(Today through Sunday) Mid-level trough axis extends from a low over Louisiana to the southwest Gulf of Mexico with 500mb ridging noted over western Texas. As for Sunday, the atmosphere dries out even more as the mid-level trough lifts northeast and high pressure builds a bit eastward.
1052 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) As another day of benign and warm weather wraps up our work week today, attention is turning to this weekend's cold front. Surface observations show that northerly winds predominate across the western Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon on the western edge of an inverted lee trough at the surface. Strong pressure rises shortly after sunset will destroy the lee trough and allow northerly winds to filter in from the north. The wind shift will continue to rush southward across Oklahoma before reaching western north Texas tomorrow night, aided by another strong round of pressure rises as an anticyclone develops across Kansas.
Stills expect patchy to areas of frost in low lying areas across western ND this morning, as temperatures continue to drop with sfc dewpoints across the west in the lower 30s.
The upper low centered over the High Plains will continue to move/dig toward the Mississippi valley overnight. Clusters are in a good agreement with a mid-level trough, and closed low, continuing to push east of our area on Sunday with a building ridge to our west.
340 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 The persistent upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to start to weaken today as a longwave trough swings through the northern plains and into the Midwest. At the surface, the low over the Gulf of Mexico has broadened out to an open inverted trough, with southerly flow continuing over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The flood watch remains in effect through this evening for coastal counties from Sarasota County north through the Nature Coast, although the highest flooding threat will be for areas that are already saturated from heavy rains in the last couple of days.
Saturday will begin dry in the wake of the high with upper level SW flow. At the same time, an upper level jet will develop over Ohio, on the western side of a NE ridge. There may be a brief reprieve from widespread rain by late Sunday morning or early afternoon as the synoptic low exits, and the prefrontal trough draws closer.
Although potential rainfall chances will be widespread, unfortunately qpf will be quite negligible, especially across the northern Sandhills into portions north central Nebraska where a lot of dry air in the lowest levels will prevent moisture reaching the sfc, resulting in a lot of areas of virga. The ridge begins to build back in across the southwest CONUS late Sunday, bringing a return to warmer temperatures.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Northern and Central Plains. An upper low is over Louisiana and Mississippi, and post tropical cyclone Kay is south of California. The upper trough to the north will dig southward today sending a cold front through the Texas Panhandle. Chances of convection will become more widespread tonight as the cold front moves into the area. High winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass tonight into Sunday morning with the passage of the cold front so a High Wind Watch remains in effect. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 50s across portions of the mountains and Southeast New Mexico to the 70s across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.
630 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Pattern change has begun across the region early this morning with low level moisture surging northward due to a closed upper level low along the Gulf Coast region. However, this upper level low has begun to weaken and will eventually be absorbed by a northern stream system. By tonight an approaching cold front associated with a strong area of low pressure anchored over Hudson Bay and a deepening upper level trough over the northern/central Plains, will begin to slide to the southeast into the forecast area.
618 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Saturday through Sunday) Unfortunately, it still looks like today may be the last shot at organized rain across the region for some time as low pressure continues to pull NW. This low will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours, aided by peak daytime heating. Given the placement and progression of this low pressure, the best rain chances into the afternoon should be found along and east of I-49, with lesser chances west. This low-pressure should quickly get the boot into the Sunday, as a deep trough begins digging through the Midwest. The rain chances Sunday will be tied to the cold front tagging along with this trough, with isolated rain chances possible along and south if I-30 Sunday afternoon.
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Key Points: * Cold front moving through the region today is expected to create significant temperature spread from north to south today. Surface cold front has worked south towards the I-70 corridor this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight across the region. As upper level trough shifts east tonight second short wave is expected to drop south out of Canada into the eastern Dakotas resulting in a cut off low developing over the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Dry north to northwest winds should allow for significant mixing on Sunday, but cooler temperatures aloft should keep high temperatures 5-7 degrees below normal. The below normal temperatures are not expected to last however, as upper level ridge across the west builds into the central US by mid- week.
650 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today through Sunday) A large upper low is centered over eastern Louisiana tonight with moisture streaming northward on the eastern side of the low. The upper low will weaken through the day and become an open wave overnight. At the same time, a deep trough will be moving east out of the central plains. The southern energy will be absorbed into the larger scale trough on Sunday. The large trough will be dragging a cold front through our area late Sunday.
An upper-lvl trough over the High Plains will push eastward, dragging a cold front southward into the region on Sunday.
(Today and tonight) A cold front, currently located across northwestern Oklahoma, will continue to move southeast through the region Saturday. The cold front extends through the central Plains and is associated with an upper level trough/cyclone that will continue moving east and intensify. Quickly clearing skies behind the shower development will rapidly increasing the overnight surface cooling, with lows dropping well into the low 50s and possibly some upper 40s in northern Oklahoma.
A weak ridge will build throughout the day but temperatures will remain close to seasonal values. Beginning Saturday, a trough will slowly approach the California coast. This will result in a slow pushing of the weak ridge in our area to the east.
405 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Key Points: - Showers with isolated thunderstorms move across the area today, with much cooler air moving in.
Due to all the cloud cover overnight and this morning, temperatures stayed rather warm last night, allowing for temperatures to already be in the low to mid 80s across east central Florida this morning. Warm and humid conditions expected today, with max temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
635 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced upper trough axis over the Dakotas extending southward into western Nebraska. A decent line of showers/storms was moving eastward out ahead of this upper trough. This upper trough will move slowly eastward and dig a little more south with an embedded PV wave moving across northern Kansas this afternoon, and pivoting eastward into northern Missouri by late tonight. Daytime temperatures will be much cooler especially across central/south central Kansas under the clouds and precipitation.