Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low pressure spinning near Hudson Bay will drag a trailing cold front northwest to southeast across northern Michigan late this afternoon and early evening. High pressure settles in behind the front for the overnight hours with clearing skies and lighter winds setting up for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Skies begin to clear this evening into the overnight hours behind the frontal passage as much drier air associated with incoming high pressure oozes into the region. especially across the typically cooler/interior locales.
A strong cold front made a run on southwest Kansas this morning. The head of this High Plains density current nosed all the way south to West Texas, leading to a north-south orientation of the front across southwest Kansas. The surface front will weaken and eventually dissolve overnight tonight as a new leeside trough quickly redevelops across Colorado and eastern Wyoming. The low level airmass will recover quickly across the High Plains in particular, thanks to increased southwest flow aloft and the aforementioned deep leeside trough development.
Isolated showers or a tstm will remain possible through late afternoon as convective temperatures are maintained, though sfc ridging and a lack of upper support should maintain dry weather for most areas. Ascent associated with this trough may support the development of a few showers or isolated storm Saturday afternoon, but overall moisture supply should be largely limited with better forcing for ascent remaining north of the forecast area.
South gradient winds will start to increase behind the departing high, making for a bit warmer temperature readings west of the Interstate 29 corridor (50s) than further east (40s). Overnight, the low level jet really ramps up warm air advection across the Dakotas, leading to significantly higher heat and humidity for Saturday. Coupled with building upper ridging and strong southerly return flow, Saturday will be 10 to 20 degrees warmer than Friday and much breezier.
The trough is already beginning to lift out and heights will continue to rise for the rest of the short term period. Temperatures today were able to reach the lower 70s so it shouldn't be difficult to reach at least the mid 70s Saturday.
1115 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 08z surface analysis had high over MT pushing cold front well south of the CWA, currently located from northern CO into southern MN.
An upper trof moving along the north central conus/Canadian border this morning will move to Ontario and the northern Great Lakes by early evening. The associated surface cold front will sag southward across central Kansas this afternoon with temperatures falling from midday highs in the 80s into the 70s. Much warmer air will reside further south across southern Kansas with highs near 90F. Upper ridging will develop over the area once again on Saturday with highs close to 90F across most of the area.
Clouds continue to thin across SE TX and tonight should feature mostly clear skies to start the evening with some increase in cloud cover late tonight as an upper level low over AR drifts south. Went a bit cooler than today due to cloud cover and precipitation. Will maintain rain chances for Saturday night as the upper level low remains over SE TX. It'll be a bit warmer Saturday night as expected cloud cover will help insulate.
/ISSUED 1034 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ We have updated the forecast to remove the mention of morning fog along the Highway 77 corridor and coastal plains. An upper low remains to our north and should not have much of an impact on our weather today. The upper low is expected to move south into southeast Texas tomorrow with South-Central Texas on the backside of the feature.
207 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
/Tonight through Friday/ Take Home Points: *Showers diminished this afternoon, but some re-firing possible *Warmer through the weekend, early week *Showers/storms Mon PM into early Tue *Seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures Tue onward Discussion: Mostly scattered showers and storms moved across the state this morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, cold air advection behind the surface cold front kept temperatures in seasonably cool territory with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s. Ahead of the front temperatures into the low to mid 80s were common.
143 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Warm and humid conditions will return for today and Saturday ahead of a weak cold front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A 500mb trough moves into eastern Texas through the period helping to sustain the low- level moisture over Deep South Texas.
Surface winds: southeast to southwest 5-15 kts, with gusts 20-25 kts across southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho this afternoon. Windy on Saturday ahead of and along a cold front.
/issued 305 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A 500mb trough moves into eastern Texas through the period helping to sustain the low- level moisture over Deep South Texas.
536 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Latest analysis shows a low amplitude upper ridge building over the region. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the southeast of the forecast area and a strengthening lee side trough over Montana is producing gusty southerly winds across northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. With high temperatures 10-20F warmer than average on Saturday, gusty west to southwest winds are expected due to very deep boundary layer mixing, especially over northeastern Wyoming on Saturday afternoon.
627 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
1010 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Cold front has exited off to our east, ending the shower threat in the process. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low pressure spinning near Hudson Bay will drag a trailing cold front northwest to southeast across northern Michigan late this afternoon and early evening. High pressure settles in behind the front for the overnight hours with clearing skies and lighter winds setting up for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Skies begin to clear this evening into the overnight hours behind the frontal passage as much drier air associated with incoming high pressure oozes into the region. especially across the typically cooler/interior locales.
A fairly quiet night is on tap for the overnight hours thanks to a broad area of high pressure with northerly, dry flow aloft. An upper low was evident on WV imagery south of the area in EC TX.
731 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
The center of a high pressure system will continue to slide eastward and away from our forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. Despite the high shifting east and southerly low-level flow returning, a dry air mass will remain in place, especially across our eastern zones. Low-level moisture return looks to commence a bit better across our western zones, so lows will only bottom out in the low to mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient and good WAA advection pattern underneath a building upper ridge will be the set up for the start of the weekend.
/issued 151 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ A cold front with a pronounced north-south orientation continues to move slowly southward and as of 1 PM was generally along a Hobbs to Tulia line. On Saturday, low level flow backs from north/northeast to east/southeast during the day while upper ridge remains overhead. The aforementioned cold front is expected to remain stalled over the CWA Saturday evening.
627 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually push southward early this afternoon as drier air slowly advects in behind the cold front that passed through the area last night into this morning. Southerly winds and clear skies return quickly on Saturday as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
625 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Today: A cold front has been slowly drifting into our area today and brought shower activity to far northwest Missouri this morning. The Weekend: Unfortunately Friday's cold front won't have much of an impact on temperatures heading into the weekend. On Saturday, a ridge over the four corners region will start to push into our area.
Overall, the upper level ridge will slowly build back across the area tonight into Saturday. There is a weak upper level disturbance under the ridge that will reside across Arkansas and Louisiana. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly cloudy through the period with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s and highs Saturday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
1052 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Cold front has exited off to our east, ending the shower threat in the process. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low pressure spinning near Hudson Bay will drag a trailing cold front northwest to southeast across northern Michigan late this afternoon and early evening. High pressure settles in behind the front for the overnight hours with clearing skies and lighter winds setting up for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Skies begin to clear this evening into the overnight hours behind the frontal passage as much drier air associated with incoming high pressure oozes into the region. especially across the typically cooler/interior locales.
721 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Cold front approaching from the west has progressed eastward across the region today. As the front exits and high pressure builds in, expect this dry air to build eastward and clear skies to follow from west to east this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere in the interior lows should bottom out in the low 40s. As the high shifts eastward through the region tomorrow, expect mostly clear skies, light winds and highs topping out in the 60s. The early part of the extended will start with upper ridging over the eastern U.
700 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 (This evening through Saturday) As an upper-level trough pushes southeast this evening, an upper ridge will attempt to build in from the west. But not before a weak cold front drops into northwest Texas this evening. Highs tomorrow will be back to the low to mid 90s.
926 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A weak boundary will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure and warm, dry weather through the weekend.
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The center of a high pressure system will continue to slide eastward and away from our forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. Despite the high shifting east and southerly low-level flow returning, a dry air mass will remain in place, especially across our eastern zones. Low-level moisture return looks to commence a bit better across our western zones, so lows will only bottom out in the low to mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient and good WAA advection pattern underneath a building upper ridge will be the set up for the start of the weekend.
A weak upper low moving through the region today through Saturday will allow for temperatures to continue their downward trend to seasonal readings.
725 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A weak boundary will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure and warm, dry weather through the weekend.
Upper level low positioned over eastern TX this afternoon.
707 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A mostly clear and light wind evening setting up across the northern plains as high pressure drifts off to the southeast overnight. Will keep the inherited lows within a couple degrees of 40 in the east and warmer in the valley and eastern ND where better mixing will exist.
Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly dry tonight, as temps settle in the low to mid 70s.
401 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The center of a high pressure system will continue to slide eastward and away from our forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. Despite the high shifting east and southerly low-level flow returning, a dry air mass will remain in place, especially across our eastern zones. Low-level moisture return looks to commence a bit better across our western zones, so lows will only bottom out in the low to mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient and good WAA advection pattern underneath a building upper ridge will be the set up for the start of the weekend.
357 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Other than an isolated shower today, dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Further flattening of ridging overhead will ensue today as yet another trough crosses the Great Lakes. Ascent associated with this trough may support the development of a few showers this afternoon, but overall moisture supply should be largely limited with better forcing for ascent remaining north of the forecast area.
Temperatures under the stratus are a good 5- 10 degrees warmer than locations without the stratus, so have bumped up temperatures to account for that.
248 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Fall is in the air this morning with high pressure sitting over the Duluth area, providing calm winds and mostly clear skies. Quiet conditions in store for today and tonight as the high slowly drifts east. High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
A dry cold front bisected the CWA from southwest to northeast early this morning. Expect this front to completely wash out as high pressure overspreads the region from the north this morning. Can't rule out a very isolated afternoon shower south of I-70, where a mid level moisture plume works north ahead of a slowly advancing upper low currently over eastern TX. Dry and mild weather overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s. Sunday, the upper low slowly advancing northeast and undercutting the ridge, increases deep layer moisture from south to north and will probably result in a few showers and storms, most concentrated over the southern CWA where chance pops reside.
An open wave trough over the California coast is drawing moisture northward across western Arizona. Drier and cooler conditions are then expected Sunday.
1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 (This evening through Saturday) As an upper-level trough pushes southeast this evening, an upper ridge will attempt to build in from the west. But not before a weak cold front drops into northwest Texas this evening. Highs tomorrow will be back to the low to mid 90s.
130 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 While upper ridging prevailed aloft, a slow moving cold front dictated today's weather. On Saturday, the upper ridge strengthens over the central and southern Plains, resulting in a warm up (highs in the mid/upper 80s). Flow aloft becomes southwesterly Saturday night as an upper trough pushes further into the western CONUS.
A fairly quiet night is on tap for the overnight hours thanks to a broad area of high pressure with northerly, dry flow aloft. An upper low was evident on WV imagery south of the area in EC TX. The mid/upper level low pressure along with remnants of Nicholas will meander south the local area tomorrow before lifting northward across the region Sunday.
Focus will be on timing and precip chances with eastward moving cold front, currently located from southern WI into eastern IA. Brief drop in 850 mb temps and cloud cover will allow highs to be several degrees cooler (but still above normal).
Meanwhile, an upper-level low over eastern Texas and a weak upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula will continue to funnel in deep tropical moisture across our area (PWATs in excess of 2 inches). The forecast remains on track as the weak upper low over western LA slowly gets absorbed by a western conus trough moving further inland. However, high pressure and the lingering trough should warrant enough energy and moisture to kick up some shower and thunderstorm activity. Daytime highs for Sunday look to be in the low to mid 80s while overnight lows Sunday night fall into the low 70s.
An upper low over east Texas will hang tight over the weekend and keep Alabama in a very moist and active weather pattern. The showers were moving north around 10 mph on the east side of the upper low and this motion will continue today. Expect more cloud cover today along with a better coverage of rain than yesterday, so temperatures should be a few degrees cooler, and result in less instability/fewer thunderstorms. The higher rainfall amounts today and tonight might stay farther north closer to the AL/TN state line. Models indicate an inverted low level trof developing in this area this afternoon, along with a weakening mid level flow. Sunday seems to be setting up for a widespread rainfall event, with models showing cooler daytime temperatures due to cloud cover and persistent showers.
/Tonight/ The evening sfc analysis continues to indicate the low level circulation of what is left of Nicholas located between RSN and MLU, with the more concentrated deeper convection having diminished shortly after sunset. However, radar and sfc obs still indicate areas of wrap-around -RA over Lincoln and Union Parishes, with this expected to persist overnight near and NW of this circulation and attendant H925-850 trough extending from the SE AR/NE LA SW into the Lower Toledo Bend Country. Have bumped up pops to low/mid chance near the low level circulation center over the Ern sections of NCntrl LA, with this feature progged to drift slowly W overnight. Did maintain slight chance pops farther W across much of SW AR/Wrn LA but dropped mention over E TX well W of the slowly retrograding inverted low level trough.
210 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with upper trof along the Pac NW coast. At the surface, strong lee trof is slowly advancing eastward into central MT and WY. Mostly clear skies very early this morning with some breezy southerly in advance of trof. Thermal ridge peaks overhead today with lee trof advancing to near the WY/SD line by late afternoon. South/southwest winds will remain gusty through the night with lee trof continuing its slow eastward movement. Another hot, dry, and breezy day expected on Sunday ahead of cold front associated with with upper trof pushing into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD by late afternoon, then sweep through much of western SD in the evening.
South gradient winds will start to increase behind the departing high, making for a bit warmer temperature readings west of the Interstate 29 corridor (50s) than further east (40s). Overnight, the low level jet really ramps up warm air advection across the Dakotas, leading to significantly higher heat and humidity for Saturday.
1225 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Cold front approaching from the west has progressed eastward across the region today. As the front exits and high pressure builds in, expect this dry air to build eastward and clear skies to follow from west to east this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere in the interior lows should bottom out in the low 40s. As the high shifts eastward through the region tomorrow, expect mostly clear skies, light winds and highs topping out in the 60s. The early part of the extended will start with upper ridging over the eastern U.
307 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Cold front has pushed south of the forecast area with cirrus in our southern counties, while clear skies were in our north. Guidance has come in warmer for the short term which makes sense considering the dry ground and drought conditions. Basically clear skies through tonight as high pressure resides across the Great Lakes region. Highs today generally in the lower to mid 80s with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s.
1132 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Today: A cold front has been slowly drifting into our area today and brought shower activity to far northwest Missouri this morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 70 79 69 79 / 50 40 80 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 68 82 68 79 / 40 30 50 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 83 68 82 68 77 / 40 30 50 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 85 65 78 / 20 30 30 40 50.
230 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern plains into the sern U. The ridge amplifies into the upper Great Lakes tonight as an amplifying trough moves into the western U. The early part of the extended will start with upper ridging over the eastern U.
255 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Weak ridging aloft will develop over most of the area today with temperatures remaining well above mid-September climo. Similar scenario on Sunday though a bit warmer with stronger south winds across central Kansas as lee side trof deepens over the high Plains.
and Sunday After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will rebound to around normal levels as high pressure drifts off to the east; allowing surface winds to turn southerly across central and north- central Wisconsin and southeasterly across east-central and northeast Wisconsin. The high will continue drifting east tonight and Sunday, as surface winds become southerly across the entire area. Upper level ridging and subsidence will keep the weather dry through the weekend. Lows tonight are expected to be a bit warmer, ranging from around 50 across north-central Wisconsin, with lower to middle 50s across central and east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday are expected to soar into the lower to middle 80s away from Lake Michigan, where highs will be limited to the 70s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 70 79 69 / 30 60 40 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 68 82 68 / 20 50 20 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 83 68 82 68 / 20 50 20 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 84 64 85 65 / 20 30 10 30 40.
After the potential for some low clouds and fog this morning mainly for areas from Garden City to Hays we should see the return of southerly flow through the day and better warm air advection in the afternoon as winds pick up out of the south due to a deepening low pressure center near Denver. Sunday should be warm and breezy through the day as winds will pick up to 20-30 mph with higher gusts and highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
/issued 151 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/ A cold front with a pronounced north-south orientation continues to move slowly southward and as of 1 PM was generally along a Hobbs to Tulia line. On Saturday, low level flow backs from north/northeast to east/southeast during the day while upper ridge remains overhead. The aforementioned cold front is expected to remain stalled over the CWA Saturday evening. An upper trough will move across the PNW Sunday, and a lee cyclone will form east of the Rockies, resulting in southeasterly winds on Sunday and high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually push southward early this afternoon as drier air slowly advects in behind the cold front that passed through the area last night into this morning. Southerly winds and clear skies return quickly on Saturday as the upper level ridge moves overhead. Sunday will be even warmer with even gustier south winds.
With a very moist airmass still in place characterized by PWATs near or over 2 inches, and the aid of convergence along the inverted trough, numerous additional showers and storms are expected to form this morning and continue into the afternoon while propagating slowly southward in the weak southerly flow aloft. After a notable break in the rain this evening into the early morning hours on Sunday, widespread showers and storms are anticipated to break out again before sunrise Sunday morning as the upper level low over Texas shifts northeastward and southerly flow strengthens across our region.
Profiles begin to moisten as the trough deepens to the west, which may very slightly limit the heat, but at this point not very confident that we will see any high based showers generate actual moisture.
345 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 (Issued 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021) Today through Sunday: A pleasant weekend is in store as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs today will be in the low 70s along Lake Michigan to the low 80s in south central Wisconsin. Soundings show a bit more mixing so winds will be a little gustier than today and temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer in the 80s.