Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Medium Low pressure continues to lift northeast towards James Bay. Southern extent of of cloud shield associated with the low has nearly cleared the northern portion of the cwa. Winds will become northwest overnight as the low passes to our southeast.
Winds will subside by early evening as our stacked low pressure lifts north of Lake Superior. models are the most generous with precip this far north, as they feature more of a broad trough over the central U. , while the international models close off an upper low over the Texas panhandle and focus the rain with that feature. This closed low remains the primary troublemaker with the weekend forecast.
301 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A cold front will move into Kansas today and then across the region tonight. Looks for overnight lows in the lower to middle 40s.
This trough will strengthen and take on a negative tilt as it move over Minnesota and Wisconsin later today. Thermal profiles show sub- freezing temperatures everywhere except the boundary layer, so thinking is that this heaver precipitation should cool the lowest levels of the atmosphere enough that a few snowflakes will mix in along I-90.
111 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. While colder air behind the front will serve to keep the high temperature near average today, warm advection with increasing southwesterly flow aloft will support further temperature moderation on Thursday. There remains significant model variance on the progression and strength of the next trough set to pass through the region this weekend.
345 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure through Thursday night yielding mostly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. High pressure will solidify over the Tennessee Valley today, giving way to a mostly sunny day with seasonable temperatures across Central Appalachia. Otherwise, low temperatures across the lowlands will bottom out in the low 40s. Dry weather with pleasant temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday night as a high pressure remains in control.
The front is expected to stall out across central Florida today, allowing cooler and drier air to filter into the area, although the difference will be minimal over southwest Florida.
The cold front will move thru NE OK sites btwn 22Z and 01Z and a wind shift is noted in the TAFs.
224 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday.
Quiet weather is expected over the next couple of day as high pressure slides across the southeast U.
Tonight will see the upper low in Ontario move east as ridging aloft builds eastward. Sunshine expected many areas Thursday as temps warm into the lower to middle 40s. Thu night - Fri Night Upper low pressure system over Southern Plains becomes cut off from the flow as upper jet across southern Canada shifts east Fri. Next trough over the Aleutians will move east and roll over the upper ridge and into MT by 12Z Sat. Warmer air moves into area Fri into early Sat. Sat - Tue Long wave ridge off the west coast of North America amplifies and creates a high amplitude trough over the central North America this period. Cold front is expected to move through Sat with a slight chance for light rain/snow showers and another round for possibly Mon.
This will bring warmer temperatures back into the area Wednesday, topping off in the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon. This will be short- lived, however, as the first of a series of cold fronts will cross through the area early Thursday. Light rain is expected to develop ahead of the front along a southwest to northeast axis, coincident with the placement of a developing low-level jet and weak mid-level ascent ahead of mid to upper-level trough axis.
A cold front will move into northwestern OK Wednesday afternoon, shifting winds to north.
As the strong upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes slides northeast through Wednesday, It will drag a cold front across the plains and into the region late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the 60s to near 70 in some locations thanks in part to the southerly winds. As the cold front moves through the Ozarks region Wednesday night and Thursday morning, rain will begin to spread northeast out of Oklahoma generally behind the front.
Further south, temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s. Will see a modest increase in moisture on Thursday as low pressure organizes over the western Gulf.
Expect highs to rise into the low 60s to the north to the upper 60s south. The aforementioned cold front will drop through the are late this afternoon through tonight. The frontal passage will remain dry however, tonight a LLJ will develop south of the area overriding the aforementioned cold front now south of the CWA. This light precipitation will continue across the southern CWA into Thursday night as a upper level trough moves into the region providing the lift for showers along a 850mb boundary which will be across the southern CWA.
Tonight will see the upper low in Ontario move east as ridging aloft builds eastward. Thu night - Fri Night Upper low pressure system over Southern Plains becomes cut off from the flow as upper jet across southern Canada shifts east Fri. Next trough over the Aleutians will move east and roll over the upper ridge and into MT by 12Z Sat. Warmer air moves into area Fri into early Sat. Sat - Tue Long wave ridge off the west coast of North America amplifies and creates a high amplitude trough over the central North America this period. Cold front is expected to move through Sat with a slight chance for light rain/snow showers and another round for possibly Mon.
Overall, little change to CAMS and BUFKIT depictions of how this system pans out, with warm advection precipitation falling along the axis of travel from western North Dakota to Mobridge area and southeast to near Huron. Omega values in the dendritic growth zone top out at 10 to 20 microbars for at most an hour or two, though at the same time the low levels will need to saturate.
434 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure over the southeast CONUS will push northeast into the Mid Atlantic region today and Thursday.
/issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ Clear and dry conditions will persist across the Midsouth for another couple of days as the result of transient high pressure shifting from East Texas today, over North Louisiana tonight, then over central Mississippi/Alabama by tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, most of the Midsouth should dip into the low to middle 40s tonight and Thursday morning.
Cold front will continue to move east across the remainder of southwest Ga and the eastern Fl Big Bend during the next few hours. Much cooler and drier air will usher in behind the front tonight. Afternoon high temperatures will run in the low 70s.
Things will begin to change a bit during the day tomorrow, as the high slides to the east, and a southerly flow returns to the area. Yet another cold front will begin pushing down into the area late Wednesday into Thursday, as another trof starts to drop down across the Great Plains.
High pressure will build into the area through this afternoon and evening, shifting east of the area by the end of the period. The upper level flow will become southwest tomorrow as a long wave trough begins to deepen as it moves off the Rocky Mountains into the southern Plains.
As the strong upper level low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes slides northeast over through Wednesday, It will drag a cold front across the plains and into the region late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the 60s to near 70 in some locations thanks in part to the southerly winds. As the cold front moves through the Ozarks region Wednesday night and Thursday morning, rain will begin to spread northeast out of Oklahoma generally behind the front.
926 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A mainly dry weather system will move across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight into early Wednesday bringing a reinforcing push of cooler air.
High pressure to the north bridging the front so anticipate low level winds quickly veering to NELY this afternoon. Ridge north of the area into late week will generate a moderate to fresh onshore breeze across the waters, with speeds increasing up to 15-20 knots.
Cloud cover to increase tonight as the trof digs sewd down the lee of the Rockies, and a cold front develops across Central OK/N TX. Shwrs and tstms will be possible along the front across our extreme nwrn areas as the trof deepens and moves into TX Thursday. The trof will finally begin to make some ewd progress as it becomes cut off from the main upper flow Thursday night, and rain chances will continue to increase from w to e.
Surface analysis early this morning places a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure in place across the region will bring rain free weather to the Mid-South today into Thursday. This ridge of high pressure will shift east over the next 24-36 hours with temperatures moderating into the the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon and again on Thursday.
649 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure over the southeast CONUS will push northeast into the Mid Atlantic region today and Thursday.
547 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 The H500 hand analysis map is showing a highly amplified pattern over NOAM with ridging off each coasts reaching into the high latitudes. In the middle is a deep trough with the Rockies under NW flow. Dry weather will return through at least the start of the weekend as transitory ridging takes shape over the central Rockies.
starting off warmer than expected today will help. temperatures will be notable cooler to start the day on Thursday with most locations dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s to start the day. which is 10 to 20 degrees cooler than what we are observing so far this morning.
955 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday.
336 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A mainly dry weather system will move across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today bringing a reinforcing push of cooler air.
435 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 The H500 hand analysis map is showing a highly amplified pattern over NOAM with ridging off each coasts reaching into the high latitudes. In the middle is a deep trough with the Rockies under NW flow. Dry weather will return through at least the start of the weekend as transitory ridging takes shape over the central Rockies.
ABM Clear and nearly calm conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period as high pressure builds over the area. Dry advection in the low levels and the exit of the trough axis should result in the cloud clearing this morning, with sunny skies for most of the day. Highs will range from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south. Tonight, as high pressure settles over the area, clear and calm conditions will allow temps to drop into the mid/upper 30s in most locations.
600 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday.
Strongest forcing is now over, however, light snow on the northern side of the low/trough will wane over the next few hours. Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact 700mb-500mb low pressure circulating through McKenzie county, Golden Valley, and Billings counties. The mid to upper level low circulation will reach the southern border around 12z, bringing an end to the strongest forcing and instability. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s.
A cold front will move into Kansas today and then across the region tonight. Looks for overnight lows in the lower to middle 40s.
422 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A cold front passes through the area today bringing colder air and increasing chances for rain.
230 AM PDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A backdoor cold front will bring increasing east winds today through Thursday, especially for Sierra ridges, and choppy conditions to Lake Tahoe as temperatures cool to near average.
737 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. Dry weather, limited cloud coverage, and temperatures right around normal are expected today as high pressure builds in south of the forecast area.
536 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. Dry weather, limited cloud coverage, and temperatures right around normal are expected today as high pressure builds in south of the forecast area.
1011 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure over the southeast CONUS will push northeast into the Mid Atlantic region today and Thursday.
/issued 437 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/ Surface analysis early this morning places a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure in place across the region will bring rain free weather to the Mid-South today into Thursday. This ridge of high pressure will shift east over the next 24-36 hours with temperatures moderating into the the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon and again on Thursday.
Upper ridge then builds east with drier weather into the end of the week.
A dry cold front will cool temperatures Thursday, with increased northeast winds starting early Thursday.
Gusty south winds will develop by late morning and continue through the afternoon hours ahead of cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma this evening. However, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest as we move into the Evening hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to blossom across across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and especially overnight as the cold front spreads to the southeast across the region. The bulk of the precipitation is expected behind the cold front in a zone of strong isentropic lift.
A cold front will move through the area, moving through KWWR late this morning and through KSPS late this evening. /issued 422 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/ A cold front passes through the area today bringing colder air and increasing chances for rain.
High pressure will move from the Gulf Coast today to over the Virginias tonight. We will see increasing south to southwest flow today, resulting in warmer temperatures with seasonal readings. With the high moving well east of our region, models bring a cold front into our region tonight.
413 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Amplifying upper trough will move across the Rockies today and then east towards to FA. The surface winds will start out SWRLY then turn north-easterly during the afternoon as a Canadian cold front moves through the region. The colder air associated with the front will lag behind FROPA about nine hours therefore the day will be warmer and dry. Strong overnight east to northeast winds behind the boundary will advect cooler air into the region resulting in much cooler high temperatures Thursday. As the day progresses and the upper trough begins to approach the Southern Plains favorable PVA will help create more widespread showers.
A low pressure system clipping the region will start increasing northerly winds today and peak on Thursday, especially down the Colorado River Valley. Another dry system and cold front may pass over the weekend, proving another round of gusty north winds.
953 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Pleasant weather across the region this morning as noticeably drier has worked into the northern two-thirds of the forecast area in the wake of a cold front currently across the southern peninsula. Lingering mostly cloudy to overcast skies at southernmost locations where more moisture remains present will improve later this morning as some of the low clouds burn off with daytime heating. Temps for most southern areas have remained in the low/mid 70s due in part to cloud cover and weaker cool/dry air advection. The front is expected to stall out across central Florida today, allowing cooler and drier air to filter into the area, although the difference will be minimal over southwest Florida.
A cold front was moving through the area this afternoon shifting winds to the north but generally remaining below 12kt. /issued 413 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/ Amplifying upper trough will move across the Rockies today and then east towards to FA. The surface winds will start out SWRLY then turn north-easterly during the afternoon as a Canadian cold front moves through the region. The colder air associated with the front will lag behind FROPA about nine hours therefore the day will be warmer and dry. Strong overnight east to northeast winds behind the boundary will advect cooler air into the region resulting in much cooler high temperatures Thursday. As the day progresses and the upper trough begins to approach the Southern Plains favorable PVA will help create more widespread showers.
The latter feature will continue southeast through the mid MO Valley this evening in tandem with a surface cold front.
Considerably cooler day on Thursday, with most of the area only approaching 50 for highs.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to lower 50s.
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure will build northeastward across the region tonight and Thursday.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 72 50 61 55 / 0 0 10 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 70 47 62 54 / 0 0 0 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 39 70 46 61 52 / 0 0 0 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 69 41 64 50 / 0 0 0 30 40.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Southerly flow will is continuing today out ahead of an approaching upper level trough that is digging south over the Southwest US. This area will not shift east much, barely entering our western and northwestern zones, but will develop more to the southwest over Central Texas as the upper level trough builds into West Texas on Thursday.
A cold front will approach the area overnight, but with weak forcing and limited moisture, only expecting an increase in cloud cover.
247 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Gusty winds up to 35 to 35 mph remain possible through the mid to late afternoon ahead of a cold front, currently crossing into southeast Nebraska as of the early afternoon. Afternoon highs Thursday will be limited to the lower 50s throughout the area, followed by freezing temps across northern Missouri Thursday night and overnight lows in the upper 30s further south.
1119 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure over the southeast CONUS will push northeast into the Mid Atlantic region today and Thursday.
144 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure through Thursday night yielding dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Note that due to previous freezing temperatures, the growing season has ended already in much of the West Virginia mountains, so no frost advisory in those areas. A high pressure system will slide eastward as a weak and dry cold front approaches from the northwest. Dry weather with pleasant temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday night as a high pressure remains in control.
106 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure through Thursday night yielding dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Clouds overnight mitigated temperatures from dropping at the time of this update, but with clearing skies and daylight still a couple of hours away, still anticipate lows to dip down into the low to mid 40s outside of the mountains. High pressure will solidify over the Tennessee Valley today, giving way to a mostly sunny day with seasonable temperatures across Central Appalachia. Otherwise, low temperatures across the lowlands will bottom out in the low 40s. Dry weather with pleasant temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday night as a high pressure remains in control.
Cooler today and Thursday as flow aloft changes from northwesterly to northerly.
Some of the MOS products are indicating colder temps, especially in the west, with lows falling to the upper teens in areas west of highway 83 - but even in the east, everywhere show be freezing or colder. A cold frontal boundary now moving through the area will put in place the cool post frontal airmass - setting up for a cloudy and periodically rainy/rain mixed with snow regime during the overnight and early morning Thursday. As far as cloud impacts to aviation, really most of area of concern to terminals looks to remain VFR, and LBL could see the lowers ceilings approaching MVFR early Thursday.
At this time, a cold front is rapidly approaching the area from the northwest. This front will be the focus of heavy rain and much cooler temperatures by tomorrow. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the cold front as it passes through the area starting this evening and overnight.
Some flurries and melting flakes may mix in along the Coteau des Prairies and in the higher elevation hills in south central South Dakota where surface temperatures are slightly cooler; however, no accumulation is expected.
Any light rain should abate by late evening, then a cold front will drop southward over the area overnight. Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than todays readings. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 50s south, and upper 40s to around 50 north.
217 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 We expect more clearing skies across the region for the remainder of the afternoon and tonight in a region of subsidence behind a trough/low passage earlier today. On Thursday, an h500 ridge begins to build into the Northern Plains. with dry weather expected, but the warmer air still remains in Montana.
1147 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 The H500 hand analysis map is showing a highly amplified pattern over NOAM with ridging off each coasts reaching into the high latitudes. In the middle is a deep trough with the Rockies under NW flow. Dry weather will return through at least the start of the weekend as transitory ridging takes shape over the central Rockies.
918 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A mainly dry weather system will move across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today bringing a reinforcing push of cooler air.
Cool temperatures can be expected with highs in the 30s and 40s, 20s in parts of the high Black Hills. A very deep Aleutian low will then support massive ridging into Alaska and NW Canada, shifting a mean deep trough east and dislodging a large portion of modified arctic air SE into the CONUS.
Rainfall amounts will be up to 2 tenths of inch with the highest amounts located over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower and mid 30s. Much of Thursday looks to be mainly cloudy until the 950-850 mb ridge axis moves east through the area.
239 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday.
An upper trough axis will nudge eastward as ridging builds across the Rockies.
Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will gradually spread from the Rockies east into the Plains through week's end.
104 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 A cold front, which has already produced a wind shift at WWR, will continue to move southward today. A cold front will move through the area, moving through KWWR late this morning and through KSPS late this evening. /issued 422 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/ A cold front passes through the area today bringing colder air and increasing chances for rain.
The Global solution is now much more in line with the Euro as both models feature a closed low which will track to the northwest of middle TN over the weekend.
1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 18Z TAF issuance VFR will prevail into the overnight period before a cold front arrives by early Thursday morning.
Significant changes will take place by tomorrow as a strong cold front moves through the area. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Rain chances continue into Thursday night as the upper low/trough moves across the Panhandle.
Currently, an elongated trof exists across the CONUS. This trof will quickly transition to a highly amplified wave as an upper high moves onto the California coast and 500 mb heights begin to fall east of the Rocky Mountains later tonight. At the surface, a cold front will begin to accelerate southward and should reach the I-20 corridor around 12Z tomorrow morning. Therefore, we will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning.