Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak high pressure over the Central Plains will give way to falling surface pressures and a developing area of low pressure over western NE. This latter feature will be in response to elongated energy diving down the backside of an upper trough which will be deepening/sharpening east of the Mississippi River. Clearing skies from north to south should allow for sub-freezing temperatures by Friday morning. With air temperatures likely to fall below freezing under the precipitation bearing clouds will mention a rain/snow mix for a large part of the CWA and outright snow over the north central and northeastern counties.
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015 The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area this morning.
WINTRY MIX IS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
652 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
341 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE KTYR. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH DAYTIME HTG. ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH ALL AREA TERMINALS. /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THE SPRING SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
ALLOWED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN TX. FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1006 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
332 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
LOOKING AT THE BROADER SATELLITE VIEW WE FIND A TROUGH FROM MAINE TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE AXIS OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT CLARKSVILLE WITH RAIN AT NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT CLARKSIVLLE BY 02Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIGINIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT OUTLAW FIELD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING AT NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ABOUT AN HOUR. BY 06Z WARM LAYER IS STILL DEEP WITH +8 ON THE NOSE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES AND GETTING COLDER WITH A MINIMUM COLD LAYER AT -4 CELSIUS SO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 03Z TO 09Z THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW 09Z-12Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN DURATION AT ANY OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS.
Still getting some light- moderate sleet/snow across the lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin but this will continue to shift east over the next couple hours. May finally see temps rise above freezing by early-mid afternoon Thursday. The much-advertised cold front looks to have cleared KPEQ and KFST; however, the colder surface air has lagged a bit. North of the freezing line we're seeing a transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, with at times moderate snow reported from KHOB and KCNM.
THE HEART OF ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1040 MB WILL ALSO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 10 KT AND MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.
621 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
01 UTC surface analysis shows a sharp cold front across the Mid South and into the Southern Appalachians. Still moderate southerly flow across our region with a very moist airmass ahead of the cold front.
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS RESULT IN IMPACTS WITH MANY ROAD SURFACES BECOMING SLICK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD CLEARING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUR HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.
604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 /00Z TAFS/ A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVING OVER KSAT AT THIS MOMENT (O0Z THURS). NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE 10Z/14Z WINDOW ACROSS KAUS AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP SHOWING -FZRA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH. AND WE EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING THURSDAY. AND TEMPERATURES SIMULTANEOUSLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. THUS LIMITING THE IMPACT TO MAINLY BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS.
739 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER SUBSIDENT AIR INTO ARIZONA RESULTING IN SEASONABLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW MORE PREVALENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IMPINGING FROM NW. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND IT WILL BE A VERY STICKY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.
A strong ridge of high pressure persists over the eastern Pacific today, with dry northerly flow aloft over California.
SOUTHERN WELD WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND COMBINED WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY COOLER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO POOL IN LOW LYING AREAS BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BRINGING A DRIER AND WARMER FLOW TO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
630 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWS MAY BE A BIT WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER FROM NORTH OF NORFOLK TO EAST OF OMAHA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
709 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
230 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
HAVE LIQUID RAIN AT CROSSVILLE THROUGH 08Z THEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UNTIL 14Z. THAT IS 6 HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN (GLAZE ON SURFACES). MODELS ARE MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE FREEZING RAIN SCNARIO AT CROSSVILLE SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS INDICATED.
A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN NASHVILLE. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED UPPER RIDGING IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEIGHTS RISE ON THURSDAY AND THE AIRMASS MODERATES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD AIRMASS TODAY AND EVEN WARMER AIRM WHICH MOVES IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 21 42 / 90 100 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 12 34 / 90 100 10 10 TN.
MEANWHILE LEE TROFFING WILL ENSUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPING FLOW SO MINS OVER FAR SE WY SHOULD BE ATTAINED LATER THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS THEN EITHER STEADY OR RISING SLOWLY LATER.
742 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
The much-advertised cold front looks to have cleared KPEQ and KFST; however, the colder surface air has lagged a bit. North of the freezing line we're seeing a transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, with at times moderate snow reported from KHOB and KCNM.
709 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH AN 850MB FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MINNESOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD OF 20 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN.
948 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE IN THE CAROLINAS MOVES ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH.
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE LOW END OF THE VFR SPECTRUM. LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER SRN AZ TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO HELP EASE TRAVEL CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING.
BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT.
THE REMNANT UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NW WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MANY ROADS HAVE ICED UP DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING AND THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UNTREATED ROADS HAZARDOUS.
515 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
By Thursday afternoon the high will be to our east and southerly return flow commences.
505 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015 Issued at 252 CST WED MAR 4 2015 An upper level trough continues to dive southeast across the plains and towards the area this afternoon. To the east of the trough a strong upper level jet streak has developed from northeastern Missouri into the Great Lakes region. The upper level trough and jet is producing strong lift across the area and snow is occurring across much of the area this afternoon. Amounts north of this line to along the I-44 corridor will range from 1 to 3 inches with amounts tapper off to around a dusting near the Highway 54 corridor. A very cold air mass will continue to spread south and lows will bottom out in the lower to middle teens tonight with wind chill values in the zero to five above range.
911 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.
DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. COOLER AIR WILL BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.
BUT STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 21 42 / 90 100 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 12 34 / 90 100 10 10 TN.
643 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
/ISSUED 323 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH AXIS/MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT SE OF US BY THEN. THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.
945 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
40 THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS AT 2330Z. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING AT KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z AND 15Z. /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS AT OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.
1057 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. OBS AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. STUMPF /ISSUED 524 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AS OF 23Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING N/NW AND GUSTING 20-25KTS. THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 9-11Z. MAINLY DUE TO HOW QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING AIR ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FORCED EAST IN ADDITION TO A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. WARMER WEATHER IS BASICALLY ASSURED.
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FORCED EAST IN ADDITION TO A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. WARMER WEATHER IS BASICALLY ASSURED.
Otherwise, sky cover will start mostly cloudy and then gradually clear from northwest to southeast as the 500mb trough moves through the area, scattering things out some. Arctic high pressure will approach central IL from the northwest Thursday bringing a continued flow of cold and dry air from the northwest.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH LIFT SOME/MOST OF THE THIS TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE HEDGED A BIT WARMER THAN INTIALIZATION BUT BELOW MODELS AT FACE VALUE BASED ON INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW SOUTHWEST US ENERGY WILL EJECT.
WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME. THE NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN NASHVILLE. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
901 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A QUIET EVENING SO FAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
540 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. UPPER TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SOCAL BAJA. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AS MENTIONED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD EAST THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SOUTH AND EAST PROGRESSION AND BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLDEST CORE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING OVERHEAD//925MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -22C//. NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD DECOUPLE PRETTY GOOD LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. EXPECTING INCREASING MID-CLOUD THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR AND THE RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT EVEN AREAS ABOVE FREEZING IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SLEET AND SNOW. EFFECTIVELY SKIPPING THE FREEZING RAIN PHASE TO THIS POINT. ONE OF THE RELATIVELY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO SPEED THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR AND THE FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TRANSITION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS US.
A VERY STRONG AND RAPID SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP DROPPING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH FREEZING PRECIP FOR LCTNS IN THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX AND IN CNTRL LA FROM SUNRISE TO AROUND 10AM WITH FREEZING TEMPS XPCD FOR AEX AND LAKES REGION IN SE TX.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the main northern wave trough approaches the region from the northwest. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent any fog or haze from developing. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern KS stays in the mid 30s.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.
FOLKS WHO ARE ENJOYING TODAY'S WARMTH ARE IN FOR A RUDE AWAKENING TOMORROW WITH 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS MUCH AS 50 DEGREES BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS RARE LATE-SEASON BLAST WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING AN IMPULSE THAT AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A SPREAD OF 3-6 DEGREES BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM/GEM AND COLDER GFS/ECMWF. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. 88 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB.