Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 An upper level low crossing the Great Lakes today will aid in the development of scattered snow showers on a brisk northwest flow.
High temps will be warmer in the 40s. JEE 213 PM CDT Amplified upper ridge will translate from the Great Plains midweek to the upper Mississippi Valley through the latter half of the week. Baroclinic zone settles just to our south through the latter half of the week with the local area under the influence of high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies with ridging extending into the midwest.
333 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Scattered snow showers have formed across the area today thanks to a potent upper level low.
A low pressure system may affect parts of the area over the weekend.
347 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Ridging continues across TX centered over NCTX and will be slowly shifting eastward tomorrow.
Although the cloud cover will increase by dawn Wednesday morning, the high pressure should bring a period of mostly clear skies, which should set up some good radiational cooling coupled with fairly weak winds overnight. Overnight lows should drop into the lower to middle teens, with the warmest temperatures near the Brainerd Lakes eastward over the South Shore of Lake Superior. For Wednesday morning, expected partly to mostly cloudy skies to linger along Lake Superior where higher relative humidity air will become situated as the cold front passes through. High temperatures will range from the lower 30s over the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead, into the upper 30s and lower 40s further inland.
Meanwhile, the next cold front is progged into the northern CWA early Wednesday morning and exiting the south in the afternoon. The blocking upper ridging remains in place over the northern plains/western Great Lakes through this time with the the east and west CONUS troughs as well.
An upper level trough will dive southeastward out of the Great Lakes Region into the Tennessee River Valley tonight into the overnight hours. Cold air will advect into the Southern Appalachians as the trough dives southeastward. Model soundings indicate that the atmosphere will saturate below 700 mb with northwesterly flow in the low levels. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible in the favored upslope regions with amounts up to 3 inches possible for the highest peaks of the Smokies. In the lower elevations of Northeast Tennessee expect there could be a dusting of up to a a inch of snowfall and the same for locations to the west of the higher elevations of the Smokies. Snow will come to an end late Wednesday morning as the upper level low moves out over the Eastern Seaboard.
322 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Tonight through Wednesday night: Latest RAP and satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, which was providing cold air advection in northerly flow to the region. This is the area that has the best chance of dipping below freezing for at least several hours. Highs will range from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s south. Minimum humidities will dip in the lower to middle 20s, but light winds and recent rainfall will limit fire danger issues. There will be some potential for freezing temperatures in our eastern counties for Wednesday night. Lows for Wednesday night will range from mainly the lower 30s east to the upper 30s west.
1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Dry and warmer is the main weather story the next few days. As the high slides off to the east later tonight and Wednesday, a return to south then southwest low level flow will signal a significant warmup for the middle of the week. Lots of sunshine this afternoon should help to offset limited mixing regime under surface ridging, but highs will remain below normal for the middle part of March. Thus highs approaching 20 degrees warmer than this afternoon are not out of the question. Meanwhile an upper low currently in the Eastern Pacific will swing a trough into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon.
105 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Upper level low pressure corse associated with Noreastern currrently headed through New Englnd will bring nwly flow to much of the region this afternoon through tonight.
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 A large upper level trough continues to amplify across the eastern half of the United States today. This will help to push another dry cold front across the Mid South this afternoon. High pressure will quickly build behind the front with a reinforcement of colder air. Areas of frost will also accompany the below freezing temperatures. The high pressure will move east by Wednesday night with a quick turn around to southerly and eventually southwesterly low level flow. This should hold temperatures above freezing in most locations on Wednesday night.
With an area of high pressure over the region, along with clear skies and light winds, patchy to areas of fog seems likely. High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday. However, south central SD should be warmer due to southerly winds this afternoon, along with limited snow cover.
/issued 1033 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ Continued cool today but afternoon highs forecast to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in many locations. Elevated fire weather develops in the west tomorrow afternoon with increasing south winds and warmer temperatures.
306 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Intense low pressure east of Cape Cod will move northeastward in to the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build southward into the central U.
Max temps should rise to the lower to mid 60s. High pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night.
Upper level low pressure core associated with Noreaster currently headed through New England will bring nwly flow to much of the region this afternoon through tonight.
VFR conditions expected through the period, as high pressure continues to push into SE TX. Winds should become more easterly through Wednesday morning, as this area of high pressure begins to slide east. High pressure over OK/NCTX maintaining the dry north to northeasterly flow across SETX today.
Expect at least a 25 degree diurnal swing with aftn highs in the lower to middle 60s with mostly sunny skies and fairly lgt winds. Thin cirrus across southern portions of area and a very weak cold front movg across nrn portions of the area may be enough to allow temps to warm further than this swing mentioned.
1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure over the Northern Plains will be the main influence over the region and will move southeast through Tuesday evening. A broad trough over the eastern one third of the country will continue to very slowly move to the east through Tuesday evening.
Scattered flurries/snow showers are dropping southward toward the northern CWA this hour, with the high-res models focusing on some more development in northeast Illinois early afternoon. Scattered flurries to diminish near the Indiana border during early evening, then stratocumulus clouds and nw winds to decrease from the west during tonight as 1036 mb Canadian high pressure over ND settles southward into the Ozarks by dawn Wed. Colder lows in the lower 20s expected overnight. Strong upper level low moves over the Canadian Maritimes on Wed while Canadian high pressure moves over the southern MS river valley. Highs Wed range from mid 40s over eastern IL, to the lower 50s in west central IL.
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Upper level analysis shows an amplified ridge over the Rockies, northerly flow over the Northern Plains, and broad low pressure centered over the Great Lakes region to the east.
/issued 409 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ An upper trough is over the eastern conus and another one is beginning to move over the west coast. Upper ridging will develop over the central part of the country on Wednesday with the 2 upper troughs in place over the western and eastern U.
Northwest flow aloft will transition to near-zonal Wednesday night as a mid-level ridge translates east across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
330 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Quiet weather continues in the short term with a high amplitude ridge building across the Central Rockies through Wednesday. Lows tonight will modify a few degrees with onset of warm advection, and then highs on Wednesday will be close to 15 degrees warmer as 700 mb temps rise to +4C. Winds will remain light with the high pressure ridge and light winds aloft. The upper ridge starting out over eastern Colorado tomorrow evening is forecast to be moved out of the state by a vigorous digging trough over the western U.
Issued by National Weather Service SHREVEPORT LA 315 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Water vapor imagery continues to show a couple of weak disturbances moving down the back side of the trough this afternoon, with one currently over Oklahoma and the other moving into Kansas. Temperatures are also trending a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday afternoon, with most locations expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s today. Dry conditions will continue to prevail the next several days, as high pressure builds back across the region.
555 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Northerly flow aloft has allowed cooler air to settle south today, with the cool high pressure shifting southeast through the night. This will allow for some cooler readings, but with southwest flow developing at the surface around midnight or shortly after temperatures will become steady or rise a touch towards sunrise. Winds might get a touch breezy along the Buffalo Ridge late tonight and early on Wednesday morning but looking at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts right now. This westerly component will remain in place on Wednesday ahead of another shot of cooler air. This will bring warmer conditions to all locations. In fact, some enhanced mixing could lead towards highs around 60 along the Missouri River into parts of northwest IA before the cooler high pressure works south.
Tomorrow an initial wave energy moving through during the afternoon bringing some snow showers to the mountains, and some rain to the lower elevations.
200 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Upper ridge axis will migrate from the Rockies today to the central Plains on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will reach at least the lower 70s.
Anomalously deep troughs are affecting both the Left and Right Coasts with significant precipitation while anomalous strong ridging extends from the Rockies to the Arctic Circle. Derived satellite imagery is showing a tap of subtropical moisture wrapping ahead of the western trough into California where PWAT is running over 200 percent of normal at many locations. Southerly winds will continue to increase through the afternoon and evening as height falls occur upstream ahead of the approaching trough.
Still looks good for fog development along the river valleys tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds under a ridge of high pressure.
SPC upper air analysis from this morning showed a large upper level low across the Great Lakes region with another upper trough approaching the Pacific NW. 500 mb west northwesterly flow was in place over south central Texas with surface pressure ridging continuing to build over our area and light surface winds out of the east northeast. Wednesday will be mostly sunny and mild with Wednesday night much warmer than tonight.
Sunshine on Wednesday, with south winds allowing for a little warmer temperatures. Highs expected in the lower 70s for most locations.
403 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon a large amplified pattern is in place across the country, with a ridge axis poking north across the Rockies, inducing a downstream meridional flow across the northern and central Plains. The northerly flow across the Plains has brought sufficient dry air south to raise fire weather concerns across the region today, which will increase tomorrow as the dry air mass remains in place with warmer temperatures and possibly stronger winds expected Wednesday.
331 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Scattered snow showers have formed across the area today thanks to a potent upper level low.
247 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Upper level low pressure core associated with Noreaster currently headed through New England will bring nwly flow to much of the region this afternoon through tonight.
Hedged up a bit in the west as 1000-850 millibar thickness supported a bit warmer than going forecast, with temperatures close to 80 expected in Barton and Russell counties. Also hedged slightly warmer Wednesday night as increasing moisture and south winds keep temperatures up overnight.
302 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Northerly flow aloft has allowed cooler air to settle south today, with the cool high pressure shifting southeast through the night. This will allow for some cooler readings, but with southwest flow developing at the surface around midnight or shortly after temperatures will steady or rise a touch towards sunrise. Temperatures might get a touch breezy along the Buffalo Ridge tonight but looking at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts right now. This westerly component will remain in place on Wednesday ahead of another shot of cooler air. This will bring warmer conditions to all locations. In fact, some enhanced mixing could lead towards highs around 60 along the Missouri River into parts of northwest IA before the cooler high pressure works south.
Although snow showers will be common for most, chose to focus the highest PoPs along the southern periphery of this axis along and south of I-70. Upper low shifts east of the area Wednesday, allowing the mid- levels to continue to cool.
229 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Latest upper analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge over the Rockies and the high plains. At the surface, most of the great plains are under the influence of high pressure, creating southeasterly winds over the forecast are tonight. The upper ridge will be located over the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
Certainly with the high looking to center itself over the state this evening, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. Plus with the west to southwest nature of the winds, downslope effect will help put maximum temperatures well into the lower 60s over the southern two-thirds of the CWA. Also with the warmer temperatures and slightly stronger winds, dew points remain dry through the day Wednesday and there is a fire weather concern for Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure will be in control so that means clear conditions and no rainfall expected. Expect a little bit cooler night Wednesday night especially along the Mississippi Gulf Coast counties. These areas could possibly touch freezing for a brief time.
upper level trough will help drive a dry reinforcing cold front southward through the region late tonight and Wednesday.
Temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer today than those of yesterday, will once again see north winds increase across the region later today.
The higher cloudiness approaching from the west-northwest has tapered off and has been replaced with a 7k to 8k deck moving north out of Mexico. /issued 359 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be dominated at the surface by high pressure and by a west-northwest to east-southeast flow at the 500 mb level.
Tonight's low temperatures are expected as the ridge axis and associated clear skies/light winds move through the area this evening and into the early overnight hours, with a modest rebound occurring late tonight due to WAA and increasing mid clouds. A cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on Wednesday, but it should come through dry.
Light to occasionally moderate rainfall continues this afternoon as a cold front pushes inland across the region.
A weak cold front is expected to push across the region during the afternoon causing winds to become northwesterly.
Southwest winds ramp up Wednesday morning ahead of a low pressure system passing to our north. A weak cold front is expected to push across the region during the afternoon causing winds to become northwesterly.
Lows will range from the lower 40s in the northeast to lower 50s along the Rio Grande and mid 50s along the immediate coast. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than today, but generally can expected highs in the the lower 70s.
/Issued 1030 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ Reinforcing high pressure continues to slide south southeast into the southern plains today.
Showers continue over Interior NorCal Wednesday as upper level trough moves through. Models showing significant amount of CAPE at the lower elevations tomorrow afternoon to include thunderstorms in the forecast.
1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft still set up across U. and Canada early this morning with low #1 just off the west coast, a high amplitude ridge over the Rockies and low #2 currently centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a Canadian high pressure system was building into the area from the north-northwest.
1207 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Quiet conditions are expected through the next several days as troughing over the Great Lakes gradually transitions eastward, keeping any disturbances east of the Plains through the end of the work week.
Snow showers beginning to blossom on radar near midday as the pockets of sun begin to churn the lower levels. The upper-level low situated over the Great Lakes will sink south through the day, dropping a trough axis through Ohio. Although snow showers will be common for most, chose to focus the highest PoPs along the southern periphery of this axis along and south of I-70. Upper low shifts east of the area Wednesday, allowing the mid- levels to continue to cool.
The associated cold front will swing through on Wednesday.
Upper level troughing will be reinforced later today which will send a dry cold front through the Mid South this afternoon. /issued 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South over the next 24 hours and will settle over the area on Wednesday. The high will quickly shift southeast by Wednesday Night allowing winds to turn around to the south.
Tonight a warm front will develop across the Tennessee Valley, as low pressure moves out of the Central Plains ahead of an upper level low. Also we will to watch for any stronger storms along that warm frontal boundary, but the stronger shear is expected to best more along the Wabash.
Because levels below about 750mb are dry and capped off development has not shifted south and as colder and drier air aloft has entrained into the back edge of the rainfall band, we have wet bulbed the freezing level down to about 1-2 kft AGL.
Main issue tonight will be the freezing temperatures, some lows will be in the lower 20s across central sections of the area, which should nearly end the growing season for west and central North Dakota. While the h850 flow regime will bring in a warm front aloft tonight, the clear skies, late afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, and winds becoming light will allow a strong inversion to form. The lower dry atmosphere, and the wind decoupling should allow a more robust temperature fall. So agree with the NAM/GFS guidance on lows in the lower to middle 20s south central and upper 20s to around 30 north. Tuesday will be much warmer as the surface inversion will mix out and highs will be in the lower 60s for the most part.
Temperatures will likely fall before freezing for several hours in western and central Minnesota where a freeze warning has been issued earlier today.
Proton Previous Discussion: A broad upper ridge will continue building into Montana tonight while a trough carves out off the Pacific NW coast. But with the flow at all levels being westerly, it will work to bring in warmer air into NE Montana as moisture and dynamics stay well to our north. With enough sunshine, temperatures across the CWA should warm into the low to mid 60s.
Cold front will continue to move southward across the state this evening, and will move through the area early Tuesday morning. A cold front will be moving southward across the state tonight with low clouds and patchy fog possible ahead of the front. The corresponding cold front is expected to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday.
With the mid level ridge of high pressure positioned north of the area, drier air is expected to wrap into the area on the south side of this ridge through Tuesday, limiting the rain chances to 20-30 percent. Otherwise, the low level ridge to the north will allow easterly surface flow to persist. High pressure is expected to hold north of the waters through the week, with easterly flow dominating.
A weather system passing north of the area will bring gusty winds along with cooler daytime temperatures again Tuesday. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. The high temperature dipped below 90 at the Tucson International Airport for the first time since September 27. Looking aloft, an upper level low is currently situated over northern New Mexico and will move into the central plains over the next day leaving Arizona in dry southwesterly flow.
1052 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northwest, with clearing skies. Upper level analysis shows low pressure sinking south-southeast across the southern Rockies with general trough covering the Rockies and high plains regions. As high pressure settles over the region tonight, clear skies, light winds, and dry air in place will produce chilly temperatures overnight into early Tuesday.
Strong mid to upper ridge will extend from the western Atlantic across north Florida into the northern GOMEX, as a strong mid to upper level low continues to retrograde westward north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile dewpoints are in the lower 70s and it feels more like August than October.
Warm front approaching from south/west will lead to an increase in clouds and rain chances overnight. With approach of cold front during heat of day Tuesday, storm chances peak, with SPC still outlooking us in marginal risk as negatively tilted trof energy advances the cold front's passage.
A return to southerly flow on Tuesday will bring a warmer air mass into the region with temperatures near normal for the remainder of the week.
830 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 High pressure will ridge southeast into the region from the Upper Great Lake tonight and Tuesday.
The central Gulf coast remains on the western edge of the Bermuda Ridge. Lows tonight remain well above normal, in the low to mid 70s. An upper trough ejecting out of the southern Rockies will send a weak cold front eastward toward the area late in the period. The combination of the deep tropical moisture and approaching trough along with daytime heating will lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Temperatures remain below normal on Tuesday, but will generally be warmer than today and should continue to warm through the rest of the week.
/00Z TAF/ Surface analysis and GOES 16 imagery show pre-frontal trough located through north Texas/DFW down towards the NW Hill Country with a line of convection. The actual cold front was located back from western Oklahoma into west Texas near Lubbock. Cold front will catch the pre- frontal trough tonight and push into the area during the morning hours. An approaching cold front will be making its way through the northwestern CWA shortly after midnight tomorrow. A mostly overcast morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the lower level front as it encounters the higher pooling of downstream moisture over the southern half of the forecast area.
1103 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 High pressure builds tonight. Tuesday should be mostly dry with high pressure in place but clouds will start to spread northward ahead of the next low pressure system, ejecting out of the midwest. This aforementioned low will track across northern Ohio, with the warm front providing for increased rain chances overnight Tuesday. It appears both downsloping southeasterly wind and a dry slot may be limiting factors for QPF outside of the initial warm front surge, but will still maintain likely PoPs, even with low QPF forecast.