Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front will move in from the west on Wednesday and be followed by a second cold front on Thursday. Cooler and drier air is expected for the end of the week under high pressure. Upper trough slowly plodding through the Great Lakes region will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Pennsylvania today as we will remain on the east side of the trough. The unsettled pattern will continue into Thursday as another cold front comes through, accompanied by another round of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. As front moves away and northwest flow takes over under the trough, cooler and drier air will move in.
Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday with low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms late tonight and Thursday.
A sfc cold front will precede the trough into the region, with current timing sliding it across the local area between roughly 20-04z. Weak high pressure still slated to build in post the Wed system with drier and cooler air accompanying it. High pressure is departing overnight, with a cold front to follow later Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, there is a chance for additional storms to develop as the cold front arrives later Wednesday. Outside of any storms, solidly VFR conditions will prevail, with lighter south to southwest winds increasing a bit Wednesday before shifting northwest as the cold front passes by late evening.
312 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Thunderstorms exiting this morning, a chance for redevelopment later today and tonight, and somewhat cooler temperatures to end the week, are the primary highlights of the forecast.
High pressure will build in and bring dry conditions today, but an upper disturbance and surface cold front will bring rain chances to the area tonight through Thursday night. Early this morning, isolated thunderstorms continued just south of the forecast area, ahead of a cold front. The cold front will continue to sink south, so can't rule out an isolated shower across the far southern forecast area before sunrise. Temperatures will be near or a little cooler than yesterday with some cooler air aloft moving in. The evening will be dry, but some convection may sneak into the far northern forecast area overnight ahead of a cold front.
Otherwise, additional convection is expected along a weak cold front as is drops into the area later this morning into the afternoon, thus all sites feature vcts and/or prob30s for tsra amidst low VFR clouds.
1018 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Strong upper ridging is persisting across the southwestern CONUS, with the main axis across the Great Basin. Temps will be slightly cooler near seasonal averages. Daily chances for storms will continue this weekend as the ridge axis transitions eastward. Cooler and drier weather may be on tap for early in the next work week, with dewpoints finally dropping below the 60s across western SD.
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Current surface analysis shows slow moving and weak cold front moving south across the area. Upper level analysis shows high pressure now centered over southern NM, with ridge extending north-northwest through the eastern Great Basin into the Pacific NW. Behind the front, highs will be a little cooler than yesterday, upper 70s to mid 80s most areas. As upper high shifts into west TX on Thursday, ridge is forecast to shift east and weaken some late in the week.
313 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Just as we have seen the past several days, broad troughing extends over the eastern half of the U. , which will keep the Atlantic ridge suppressed southward over southern Florida. The trough axis extends from the Great Lakes southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
903 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Just some light showers or sprinkles over the higher terrain west and south. Drier and hotter afternoon but no convection expected in the lower elevations. Tonight should be a bit cooler as a weakening front moves into northeast Montana bringing winds to north and then northeasterly directions. The upslope winds weaken allowing for better mixing and temperatures will push into the lower 90s for most areas. An upper ridge will be over the Northern Rockies on Thursday and will provide dry weather in the morning. The ridge axis will slide eastward during the day and allow for better large-scale lift and disturbances embedded within southwesterly flow to move over the region during the afternoon. This pattern evolution will introduce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and scattered showers and thunderstorms over the lower elevations.
and Thursday A cold front and attendant PV anomaly will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as it sinks south. High temperatures today ahead of the cold front will rise into the lower to middle 80s across central and east-central Wisconsin, with highs in the upper 70s across north-central Wisconsin given an earlier fropa. Once the storms end later tonight a cooler airmass will settle in across the western Great Lakes with quieter weather as well. Overnight lows will sink to around 50 across north-central Wisconsin with lows in the lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin. Thursday will be noticeably cooler with much lower dew points behind the front as daytime highs range from around 70 across the north, with middle to upper 70s across central and east- central Wisconsin.
156 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Aviation - Seasonably warm and rather humid through Wednesday - Isolated showers possible late this afternoon and evening - Patchy fog early Wednesday morning - Scattered showers and storms Wednesday night - Cooler and less humid late this week Tranquil and seasonably warm and rather humid weather is forecast through Wednesday afternoon. The cold front is through our fcst area and the threat for widespread rain and convection has shifted southeast of our area along and out ahead of that front. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring scattered showers and storms Wednesday night. Winds will ramp up a bit out of the northwest Thursday after the passage of a cold front.
High pressure in place today has led to a nice summer day. High pressure will build in from the northwest tomorrow night, and temperatures should fall into the 50s easily, potentially a few places in central MN could reach the upper 40s by early Thursday morning.
317 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area through the short term period. Precipitation on the north side of a low pressure system over the Western High Plains may reach the far southwestern part of the CWA tonight, so will keep small POPs in there for now. Will start under northwest flow with an upstream ridge, but also a western CONUS trough which is helping draw a monsoon type wave up across the intermountain west.
A trough remains across the Southeast today, with the axis of synoptic forcing for ascent shifting east of the Tri-State region. Dry air aloft associated with the trough will continue to overspread the region through the day. Storms should come to an end around sunset, with lows dipping into the lower 70s across inland locations. Axis of upper trough will slide to the east over the next two days, with drier northwesterly flow setting up.
However, elevated convection may also develop downstream from existing convection as the low level jet veers later tonight into the daylight hours. With our forecast area sitting on the periphery of an upper level ridge to our west, we will see impulses moving through the upper flow with convection again developing tonight over KS and moving into our western counties late tonight (Wed night) into Thursday.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies overnight, with clouds and shower chances slowly increasing Wednesday as cold front approaches. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper low near Hudson Bay with baggy upper level troughiness into the Great Lakes. At the surface, cold front moving across the upper midwest (our weather issue for tomorrow), with elongated ridge axis over the western lakes. Another cold front will approach the area late Wednesday and move through the region early Thursday.
Areas from around the James Valley west will see the higher instability and the better chance for large hail. Time will tell but at this time the highest threat for severe weather should be from about 9 pm to 2 am CDT. Skies will be partly cloudy as high pressure builds south and winds turn to the north and northeast. Highs will be seasonally warm in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the 60s, so a touch humid. There will be a small chance for thunderstorms near the Missouri River Wednesday night which is near the low and mid level thermal gradient and location of a weak upper level wave. Temperatures will cool overnight with high pressure building. Upper level ridging will build across the area and should keep conditions dry.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas with anticyclonic flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The center of the ridge will move slowly to the east into West Texas.
A Heat Advisory has been issued, although the Heat Index will not be much more than the actual temperature (if at all in some spots) due to the low relative humidity in areas where it does reach 105+. This is due to the summer subtropical ridge weakening some and shifting east/southeast from its typical New Mexico/Four Corners position.
1031 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Wyoming remains on the fringe of the ridge centered on the four corners region. The forecast area will be under ridging through most of the work week, which will help keep the temperatures on the warm side. The ridge will shift slowly eastward late Thursday into the weekend, as a Pacific low starts to move into Washington.
Ensembles suggest northwesterly upper flow will become more zonal during this period, as upper ridging over the southern Plains elongates across the southern states.
An approaching cold front and mid level short wave trough will bring a chance for showers and storms to the area on Wednesday. The presence of the cold front, mid level short wave, increasing CAPE and shear will lead thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail.
Tonight Through Thursday The upper ridge will remain over the southwest U. However this eastward shift will lead to slightly warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday with heat indices reaching 105 to 107 degrees in the south and west.
High pressure expands across the northern Plains today while the upper level ridge rebounds slightly over the western Plains. A comfortable night is expected, as the drier airmass drops dewpoints into the 50s, with cooler temperatures expected. A thermal gradient between the cooler and drier airmass in the northern Plains is expected to set up near the Missouri Valley this evening and tonight.
1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Immediate attention remains focused on the strong storms that have developed along the cold front currently draped across the area. NW flow aloft will continue through the period, ushering high pressure in behind the front. The high will limit instability across the mid-Mississippi Valley, resulting in fairly quiet through tomorrow afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will move across the northern Great Lakes with a cold front trailing to the SW.
The upper ridge will move very little through the weekend as it basically parks over Texas. Any kind of precipitation chances will remain on the fringe of the upper ridge where monsoonal moisture resides.
/issued 313 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019/ Just as we have seen the past several days, broad troughing extends over the eastern half of the U. , which will keep the Atlantic ridge suppressed southward over southern Florida. The trough axis extends from the Great Lakes southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Early morning surface analysis shows that a southward advancing cold front has mostly pushed south of North Dakota. Forcing is likely being aided by a couple impulses rounding the base of a closed upper low near Hudson Bay. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs mainly in the 70s. High pressure will build over the Northern Plains tonight, allowing for clearing skies, light winds, and very cool overnight temperatures for early August. High pressure will slowly drift eastward across the Northern Plains on Thursday. Flow aloft will be northwest with an upper ridge axis over the Rockies and a closed upper low still near Hudson Bay. Small mid level height rises will lead to slightly warmer highs on Thursday, especially over western North Dakota where southerly return flow will begin to set up.
There are some remnant boundaries still lurking over the waters, especially over the waters south of the Lower and Middle Keys. Water vapor imagery shows what's left of an elongated, weak trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Tonight, upper level ridge will slowly begin to work its way into the western Gulf.
The high currently near the four corners will be forced south and east resting over Texas by Thursday. Being in the sweet spot on the western side of the high's influence, plenty of moisture will move into the CWA with the impending monsoonal surge. So today looks more favorable for heavier rainfall and storms will likely be slower-moving given the closer proximity of the high.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A 594dam ridge over western Texas/southeastern New Mexico will continue drifting eastward over the next 36 hours, positioning itself over north-central Texas by Thursday evening. This ridge is expected to be the dominate weather feature for Deep South Texas through short term.
Otherwise, this could to be our last best chances for rain as the upper ridge settles more firm- ly over the region by Thur.
By 00Z Thursday, a cold front will move through central and southeast South Dakota and into western Nebraska tonight. Highs cooler from 79 to 83. Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain to our west where upslope flow and higher instability exists. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night as the upper ridge axis migrates onto the Plains Region.
This will help to keep the area a little cooler, with highs only rising into the 80s. Going into the day on Thursday, the area will see the ridge axis start to migrate back eastward as a low builds over the Pacific Northeast.
The low level jet should increase late tonight especially after midnight and we could see additional thunderstorms, some severe and with heavy rain.
High pressure will build in and bring dry conditions today, but an upper disturbance and surface cold front will bring rain chances to the area tonight through Thursday night. Surface analysis shows weak high pressure in place across the southeastern United States. A weak area of Low pressure was found over Ontario. Aloft ridging was in place across the Western United States and NW flow on the lee side of the ridge continued to spill into the Ohio Valley. Thus have trended toward another sunny day as subsidence and weak high pressure looks to continue across the area. The evening will be dry, but some convection may sneak into the far northern forecast area overnight ahead of a cold front.
403 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Gradual cooling trend into weekend as high pressure weakens.
Otherwise, expect showers and thundestorms to develop over the high terrain near or shortly after 18Z.
Who's ready for some much cooler and wetter weather? We are, but first we've got to navigate past what are likely to be two more of the hottest days of 2019 (today and Thursday). In fact, over the past several days, the models have brought into much clearer focus the progression of a secondary low pressure feature out over the Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west of Los Angeles.
As the upper-level ridge pattern remains in place, will see a typical summertime diurnal wind pattern across the area over the next several days. Otherwise, this could to be our last best chances for rain as the upper ridge settles more firm- ly over the region by Thur.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am, depicts a seemingly semi-prominent narrow full latitudinal trough axis presently extending from Lake Superior south southeastward to near Southern Florida. To the east, one TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) cell was centered near the Windward Passage and migrating westward. Upstream of that feature, a well defined middle and upper trough was located over the Tropical Atlantic near 24N 64w. A weak ridge has emerged just across the extreme Southern Florida Peninsula this morning, but deeper moisture and boundaries continue to linger across the waters surrounding the islands.
515 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Current surface analysis shows slow moving and weak cold front moving south across the area. Upper level analysis shows high pressure now centered over southern NM, with ridge extending north-northwest through the eastern Great Basin into the Pacific NW. Behind the front, highs will be a little cooler than yesterday, upper 70s to mid 80s most areas. As upper high shifts into west TX on Thursday, ridge is forecast to shift east and weaken some late in the week.
This trough axis is contributing to weak ascent enhancement and the westerly wind flow from the air riding counterclockwise around the low.
415 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Early morning surface analysis shows that a southward advancing cold front has mostly pushed south of North Dakota. Forcing is likely being aided by a couple impulses rounding the base of a closed upper low near Hudson Bay. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs mainly in the 70s. High pressure will build over the Northern Plains tonight, allowing for clearing skies, light winds, and very cool overnight temperatures for early August. High pressure will slowly drift eastward across the Northern Plains on Thursday. Flow aloft will be northwest with an upper ridge axis over the Rockies and a closed upper low still near Hudson Bay. Small mid level height rises will lead to slightly warmer highs on Thursday, especially over western North Dakota where southerly return flow will begin to set up.
914 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Deep westerly flow will prevail again today as an upper trough remains over the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, with heat indices 100-105F.
/issued 443 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A 594dam ridge over western Texas/southeastern New Mexico will continue drifting eastward over the next 36 hours, positioning itself over north-central Texas by Thursday evening. This ridge is expected to be the dominate weather feature for Deep South Texas through short term.
622 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Thunderstorms exiting this morning, a chance for redevelopment later today and tonight, and somewhat cooler temperatures to end the week, are the primary highlights of the forecast.
- Showers and storms work through tonight ahead of cold front. - Slightly cooler and drier air mass settles in behind the front.
/Issued 428 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/ Ridge of high pressure continued to be the dominate factor across the Four Corners region this morning. with upper level north northwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge across the Central/Southern Plains. Southerly low level flow helping to keep dewpoints in the low/mid 70s combined with afternoon heating will allow for a few locations in Eastern Oklahoma to flirt with possibly reaching 100 degrees this afternoon.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 70s areawide. Mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s around the noon hour. MLCAPE values will climb into the 2500-3000 J/kg range by early afternoon as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s.
/Issued 414 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/ Upper level ridging will slowly shift east today and tonight centering over Texas. High pressure will increase temperatures this afternoon and heat indices will reach 110-114 degrees. Tonight into Thursday, PWATS will decrease below seasonal averages as high pressure settles in with no mentionable PoPs.
Convection is expected along/ahead of a weak cold front as is drops into the area this morning into the afternoon, thus all sites feature vcts amidst low VFR clouds.
High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area through the short term period. Precipitation on the north side of a low pressure system over the Western High Plains may reach the far southwestern part of the CWA tonight, so will keep small POPs in there for now. Will start under northwest flow with an upstream ridge, but also a western CONUS trough which is helping draw a monsoon type wave up across the intermountain west.
The H5 ridge remains to the south, centered on the Four Corners. Daytime heating will continue to spark showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations of western WY, starting around noon, before drifting to the east. The upper ridge will start to break down on Thursday as the low off the NW CONUS finally begins its trek east.
414 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Upper level ridging will slowly shift east today and tonight centering over Texas. High pressure will increase temperatures this afternoon and heat indices will reach 110-114 degrees. Tonight into Thursday, PWATS will decrease below seasonal averages as high pressure settles in with no mentionable PoPs.
The GFS maintains the northwest flow aloft (which I blame for the lower forecast confidence) and continues to bring several waves into the region through the weekend.
1028 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Aviation section updated High pressure will build in and bring dry conditions today, but an upper disturbance and surface cold front will bring rain chances to the area tonight through Thursday night. Surface analysis shows weak high pressure in place across the southeastern United States. A weak area of Low pressure was found over Ontario. Aloft ridging was in place across the Western United States and NW flow on the lee side of the ridge continued to spill into the Ohio Valley. Thus have trended toward another sunny day as subsidence and weak high pressure looks to continue across the area. The evening will be dry, but some convection may sneak into the far northern forecast area overnight ahead of a cold front.
A sfc cold front will precede the trough into the region, with current timing sliding it across the local area between roughly 20-04z. Weak high pressure still slated to build in post the Wed system with drier and cooler air accompanying it. A cold front is expected to move into central Wisconsin this afternoon and evening.
1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Convection is popping up in the heat of the day under a dirty ridge. Convection has begun to pop up in the heat of the day across the central South Plains under a dirty ridge, and models are indicating this activity will continue to spread.
The next feature to bring an increase in shower/storm chances will be another weak cold front easing south Thursday within the ever- persistent nw flow aloft regime.
Skies clear out tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks like another great summer day with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid to upper 70s along with drier dewpoints in the low 50s.
Expect low-end precipitation totals with these showers before they gradually diminish by midday as high pressure builds into the state.
Tonight expect mostly clear skies and light winds as brief high pressure moves through the area.
A persistent high pressure system over TX will continue to keep S TX hot and humid with most locations remaining rain free. Given the low probability, will not mention convection in the zones.
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, as a cold front pushes south into Illinois.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 91 73 / 20 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 88 70 / 40 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 88 70 / 30 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 85 66 / 40 30 10 30.