Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
907 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Animation of water vapor imagery indicates the short wave trough that contributed to today's snowfall is moving rapidly to our east away from the area. High pressure continues to settle into the Southern Plains this evening. Much of the area should see temperatures rise above freezing on Saturday.
High pressure was still building into the region today and will move over the area tonight. High pressure will move across the region tonight with a light wind and clearing sky, along with a bit of snow, temperatures will drop back into the single digits and may flirt with zero or slightly below zero across parts of central Missouri.
534 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad, impressive trough across much of the CONUS. In our neck of the woods, Arctic high pressure will keep the region cold and dry through the period. Given the ridge sliding through bringing light winds, mainly clear skies, and snow cover still present (especially over north-central MO), think temperatures will get very cold tonight. The one mitigating factor will be the ridge sliding to the southeast by 12Z Saturday morning, which could lead to some weak WSW return flow across north-central MO. The ridge will slide to the east-southeast on Saturday.
536 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 A weak high pressure center will slowly move out of the region late this evening allowing winds to turn back to the South.
Very hazardous marine conditions developing behind cold front on.
Few-sct stratocumulus may then occur Sat afternoon as another cold frontal passage occurs. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Sat afternoon and night due to brisk nwly winds with the passage of a cold front. High Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
524 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 The light snow/flurries will end through the afternoon/early evening along with the clouds moving out as the responsible short wave trough slides southeast. A surface Arctic high pressure area will build southeast into the region tonight into Saturday.
Some moderation of the cold airmass has occurred with temps reaching above zero in for portions of the northern valley as westerly SFC winds added a few degrees to the highs today. Nonetheless will have another January night with wind chill advisory needed stronger winds will offset a bit warmer minimums and still combine for feels like temperatures ranging from 25 to 35 below zero this evening and through the overnight into the morning.
Forecast soundings are indicating dry air filtering into the upper levels of the atmosphere and eroding down into the lower layers this evening. Model guidance also supports an area of high pressure moving in behind the moisture this evening. Expecting lows to get into the low-mid 20s in counties north of I- 10, excluding Harris county. Most places along the immediate coast will see freezing conditions for the first time this season. Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties will begin to see freezing temperatures between 8 and 10 pm. For places not along the immediate coast, a freeze warning has been reissued for some of these counties that have already seen freezing conditions earlier this season.
--IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA-- *WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS: Hazardous road conditions are expected tonight for a large chunk of central Alabama as sleet and freezing rain become more prevalent. Just above 850mb, a relatively warmer layer of air (probably in the neighborhood of 3C) is still in place, supported by mixed-precipitation reports across the region; however, the warm nose will steadily erode from northwest to southeast this evening/tonight, along with surface temperatures gradually sneaking into the 20s (F). Wintry precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) will affect all TAF sites excluding MGM-TOI this afternoon (rain is expected for those two terminals). The highest liquid totals will be across the southeast counties, but sleet and snow accumulations of 2 or more inches will occur across portions of the area.
At the surface, strong high pressure will slowly move off to the east. For the lower elevations east of the mountains, including the Denver area. On Saturday, airmass will warm with highs climbing above freezing in the Denver area, while 20s prevail to the north and across the plains. General consensus indicates a wide swath of moist pacific air rounding the top of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. warmer downslope flow sets up with falling pressure on the plains.
Most areas will be rain free with above normal temperatures in the lower 80s, a little shy of record highs.
Low temperatures will be around zero to a few degrees below zero, except a bit warmer underneath lake effect clouds, along and north of U.
and Thursday Upper height falls continue from today into this evening as short wave trough axis slides over the northeast half of the state. Plenty of clouds and flurries associated with this short wave trough this morning. Flurries and clouds were also associated with the 850 MB cold front sliding over the state this morning.
646 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 Low pressure will move away from the coast this morning. A cold front will move offshore early today, followed by a stronger front Thursday.
Cold Canadian high pressure was building over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning, forcing a cold front through the region. Cloud cover south of the front was also helping the cause for warmer temps.
A bit cooler today in the wake of the weak cool front that moved across the area last night. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower 60s across the northern part of the Hill Country and mid 60s elsewhere. A second round of cooler airmass is forecast for tonight as a dry and stronger cooler frontal passage moves over the northern portion of South-Central Texas.
Caa at the 850 mb level will pick up tonight as another reinforcing cold front moves through our area.
Winds are diminishing with high pressure nudging eastward, but still strong enough to push wind chills down to near 30 below. High pressure slides across eastern Montana today keeping temperatures cold for most of the region through tonight. Upper ridging along the west coast with moisture streaming toward the northern Rockies will slide east over the next few days. Moisture stream will be pushed southeast by the end of the week as an upper low in the east Pacific phases with another arctic wave dropping through the Canadian prairies.
The exception will be at CRP where slightly higher winds will occur late in the period as secondary surge of high pressure moves into the area. A cold front has moved through South Texas during the overnight hours. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will arrive tonight into early Thursday morning. Cloudy and slightly cooler conditions will be common across the region on Thursday with highs only in the lower 60s.
A second cold front will pass through the area tonight bring more widespread snow showers, and develop a band of lake effect snow that will impact the Tug Hill of New York into Thursday.
will slowly diminish during the afternoon then generally dissipate tonight as high pressure across the area retreats in advance of a cold front moving south tonight and Thursday. High pressure builds into the eastern U.
957 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 High pressure and a very cold airmass will move in today.
332 AM MST Wed Dec 14 2016 Cold high pressure will build in from the northern high plains today. A very weak disturbance moving down the ridge to the west will move across northern portions of the area tonight and bring a chance of flurries or a light dusting along the Colorado-Kansas-Nebraska border region. Expecting highs only in the low to mid 30s around Hill City, but mid to upper 40s in eastern Colorado.
These temps do increase wind chills in the Cass/Clay county region to warmer than criteria for a brief period of time this afternoon.
Surface cold front now near the Altamaha river in se Ga with scattered showers occurring along boundary. A cold front will push across the GA waters this afternoon and across the ne Fl waters tonight.
/Issued 402 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/ A cold front will push through the Panhandles today and bring breezy north winds, but temperatures should be similar to yesterday. As an upper level high approaches from the west, lee side troughing will help temps through the end of the week warm up considerably.
Temps today will be a little cooler, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s ovr the sern plains and mostly in the 40s in the upper Arkansas River valley and the San Luis valley. Breezy westerlies nr the mtns areas should keeps temps a little warmer.
The cloud layer will initially be rather shallow and rather dry below cloud base, so the chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle will be rather low. By sunrise Thursday into Thursday morning, there may be a better opportunity for drizzle/freezing drizzle.
/issued 308 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/ An arctic cold front has pushed through the Mid-South and is now located across Central Mississippi. Expect highs ranging from the upper 30s near the MO/AR and KY/TN border to the lower 50s in Monroe County, Mississippi. Lingering clouds will clear during the evening hours as arctic high pressure builds into the area.
A cold front will cross the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. Moisture will return over the weekend ahead of another cold front. A cold front will move into the forecast area from the northwest this morning and push east of the area this afternoon. Cold front will be east of the area this evening, allowing cooler and drier air to be pushing into the region.
A trough will come ashore over the west coast and it's northeast to southwest orientation will allow the system to tap into some decent moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
551 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 The main issue today will be the passage of another Arctic cold front, which will bring a reinforcing shot of very cold air. Sunshine today and southwest winds ahead of the cold front should help high temps today reach the low 20s N of I-74, with upper 20s south of I-70.
1004 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 Cold and dry arctic high pressure will begin to move in from the northwest later today. A warm front will bring increasingly wet and mild weather this weekend.
High pressure was located across the lower and mid Missouri Valley early this morning with cold temperatures still in place over the region. The next surge of arctic air will spread across the region today as a reinforcing segment of high pressure reaches the lower Missouri Valley by this evening. The cold air will begin to moderate in western parts of the region on Thursday as downslope flow develops over the high plains and warmer air moves east.
402 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 A cold front will push through the Panhandles today and bring breezy north winds, but temperatures should be similar to yesterday. As an upper level high approaches from the west, lee side troughing will help temps through the end of the week warm up considerably.
May see some VFR materialize after 06Z tonight and all locations by 12Z Thursday as high pressure and drier air continues to settle across the area. Quiet weather this early morning as a cold front continues to work its way off the coast. Right now based on the cloud cover, we will see afternoon temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday. As high pressure builds over the region today and tomorrow, we will see more seasonable temperatures and dry weather.
With these gusty winds, temperatures are expected to rise to help convert activity to rainfall, with periods of freezing rain possible. Warming temperatures will then be found beginning this evening, with the warmer air moving northeast through the overnight hours. As the warmer air advances, snowfall will convert to rain, with brief periods of freezing rain possible during the changeover. The presence of freezing rain is not anticipated to be as significant as the last event, though still could accumulate briefly.
422 AM MST Wed Dec 14 2016 Cold high pressure will build in from the northern high plains today. A very weak disturbance moving down the ridge to the west will move across northern portions of the area tonight and bring a chance of flurries or a light dusting along the Colorado-Kansas-Nebraska border region. Expecting highs only in the low to mid 30s around Hill City, but mid to upper 40s in eastern Colorado.
This cloud deck is sitting on the ground in a few areas creating freezing fog with the potential of ice formation on roadways this morning. A warm front will steadily be moving northward this afternoon and over night tonight causing widespread snow with rising snow levels. This warm front will have a couple of different impacts: 1. Pockets of freezing rain in Lemhi county later tonight into Thursday morning. Even though this warm front will bring a fairly hefty amount of precipitation to the area, snow ratios will be decreasing. Then an upper level low pressure system begins to move into the Oregon coast Thursday night. This low pressure system will help pull arctic air over the Divide.
The overall synoptic pattern will be very similar to yesterday with negatively tilted surface ridging building to the NW of the CWA and at 140-160 kt jet just north of the state. This ridge and associated 1036 mb high will build eastward today and tonight and be positioned over the southern Missouri River Valley by 12Z Thursday. Trended highs for today a couple of degrees cooler than the previous forecast (and lower than most guidance solutions) given this influx of cold air and factoring in how highs yesterday only reached to between 23 and 28 degrees.
645 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 High pressure and a very cold airmass will move in today.
A cold front will pass through the terminals today bringing a wind shift to the north-northeast. /issued 351 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/ A cold front, located across northeast Colo and the KS/NE state line at 3 am, will make steady progress south today and be on the doorstep of the forecast area around noon. Cold, dry surface ridging will build into the area tonight with diminishing winds. Any saturation of the air mass looks like it will be confined to a narrow layer around 850 mb and with the very dry air present below this layer, we've delayed the onset of any patchy freezing drizzle mention until 09 UTC/3 AM, and we don't expect any accumulations.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a feeble Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across south Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will be located over the Florida Straits today.
243 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will drift off of the eastern seaboard tonight, allowing a warm front to lift into the region Friday. Patchy sleet and freezing rain is expected over central and northern areas from the early to late morning Friday before precipitation changes to all rain. separating milder air to the south from cooler air and showers north.
This was developing along an elevated warm front. From tonight into Friday, a cold front will slowly sink southward through the forecast area. The highest CAPES and the best 0-6 km shear will be this evening and this could result in the potential for some hail up to 1 inch in diameter.
CHA will see the lowest CIGs as moisture increases from out of the southeast, but only expecting near MVFR conditions at this point.
The main challenge in the short term period will be convective chances late this evening and overnight as lift from an upper trough interacts with an eastward moving dryline/Pacific front. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday but still above normal, with afternoon highs around 80 degrees.
A mid/upper ridge builds into the area Friday bringing decreasing clouds and slightly drier conditions. Upper ridge centered along southeast U.
This is supported by the hi-res guidance and the latest nam/sref, and the fact that much of the shower activity that is out in Illinois and Indiana now is diminishing as the warm front lifts northeastward. However, even with some wet-bulbing, the threat for freezing rain appears low, with warm air surging aloft.
A pacific cold front will approach the region Friday morning, moving through LRD between 15Z-18Z and through CRP/VCT around 21Z.
330 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
/issued 1030 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/ Weak warm front mainly along Interstate 20 to continue shifting north today.
Have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning in that area for tomorrow and will leave the watch farther east intact for now.
As an area of low pressure builds in eastern Colorado, gradient will remain tight across Texas. Current water vapor imagery shows a 500mb trough over the Great Basin with mid level ridging overhead. The axis of a mid level trough will move over the Four corners region this evening as 500mb ridging drifts over the Gulf of Mexico. Friday will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s across the west.
An upper level ridge is currently spreading east into the area early this morning. Warm air advection and isentropic lift are spreading across the area ahead of the upper level ridge. Warmer conditions will occur today as the ridge spreads over the area and clouds clear from west to east this afternoon. An upper level trough currently across the southwestern U. will spread east and close into an upper level low across the central Plains tonight into Friday morning.
127 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west.
Cold front continues to push south across central FL with a mixture of VCTS/VCSH at all terminals TIL 00Z-01Z. A weakening front in north-central FL will push across the area with modest amounts of moisture and cooler temperatures aloft. Winds begin to increase in the wake of the front and reach exercise caution to advisory speeds tonight as high pressure builds in.
Synoptic Setup: Short term with a trough running from Arizona to southwest Wyoming. Behind the trough a weak meso-ridge is developing in the flow from southern California through central Idaho. A much larger synoptic trough lies farther west from off the coast of California up into Gulf of Alaska. This afternoon through Tonight: a cold front has barreled through the northeastern sections of the CWA clipping Sheridan Roosevelt and Daniels county with a colder airmass. Friday though Friday night: Meso-ridge will rapidly amplify across Montana as the trough to the west steps onshore. With the Ridge moving across montana Conditions should turn dry and clear during this time.
201 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Aviation/Hydro High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then rain will move in tonight as the high moves east and low pressure slowly moves towards Lower Michigan. Given the low dew points this evening, kept mention of freezing rain across the NE zones where temps are most likely to wet bulb down below freezing at the outset of the precip.
Sandwiched between a developing warm front boundary to our north and a decaying cold front boundary to our south, widespread cloud coverage will remain in place through the period. Surface cold front, analyzed just off the Florida coast, will continue to slowly push southward and dissipate later today.
326 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 18Z surface data has a warm front from eastern Nebraska into far western Kentucky. Dew points were in the teens and 20s across the Great Lakes with 30s from the northern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley.
207 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof invof of the Rockies, with jet streak rounding the base of the trof helping close off a low near the Four Corners. At the surface, low continues to deepen over nern CO with inverted trof extending through swrn into ncntrl SD. Best chance for isold -tsra will extend from the srn Blkhls ewd across srn SD closer to the Neb border near and east of the inverted sfc trof where some minimal cape exists. Pcpn should end from northwest to southeast overnight, but will continue through at least Friday morning over scntrl SD as upper low shifts into the cntrl plains. Transitory ridge will cross the nrn plains with dry and mild conditions and breezy NW winds (pcpn in scntrl SD will gradually end by afternoon).
Short range high res models then spread precip southward across our area through the afternoon ahead of the approaching frontal trough.
311 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight and will lift into southern New England on Friday.
312 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Both fire weather and severe thunderstorm concerns will exist tomorrow in response to a strong upper level low pressure system and associated dryline that will move through the region tomorrow.
High pressure is building into north central Idaho and western Montana today which will result in decreasing cloud cover this afternoon and evening.
330 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Very challenging forecast with regard to the closed low which evolves across the central Plains during Friday. The NAM is a bit further north than the GFS/ECMWF, taking the low across far southern Kansas, instead of northern Oklahoma.
As of Thursday afternoon a mid-level trough was located across the lee of the Rockies. Have trended PoPs down during the morning hours as the main trough will remain to the west along with substantial mid-level dry air. Most guidance continues to suggest dew points in the lower 40s although the 12Z GFS suggests much drier air with dews in the lower 30s. For now, the forecast is status quo with minimum RH values in the lower 30s Friday afternoon.
Main impact areas will be over Southern Front Range foothills and out over the Palmer Divide where the higher elevations will be more snow than rain. Surface cold front over Wyoming will drop into Eastern Colorado this evening with increasing northerly winds.
A fairly calm night in store but with increasing clouds as the lower levels of the atmosphere begins to moisten up. Increased cloud cover will allow lows to be around 5 degrees above normal with lows in the lower to upper 40s.
A warm front will push over the Casades and midnight with increasing chances of rain to the TAF sites from west to east by early morning.
244 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017 A strong low pressure system will continue to move through the region today, exiting Arizona later tonight.
326 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west.
Post frontal drying will be efficient with downsloping westerly winds, but the mid-level low pressure being well to the north may not mix the gusty winds from aloft to the surface as much as they are expected to the WFO counties to the north.
A mid level warm front is working eastward across central Kentucky. Regardless of the cloud cover, should still see a modest ridge/valley split tonight given the dry air over the area. Ridges and locations farther west will stay in the 40s tonight. By tomorrow, warm front will be off to the north with southerly winds continuing to pump in mild air. Cloud cover is still a bit in question as we will be solidly in the warm sector behind the warm front, so we may see a bit more sunshine in the blended model solution would otherwise indicate. Will still see a bit of a ridge/valley split Friday night, but may be more in the extreme valleys as the gradient will continue to increase.
Did begin the mention of precipitation tomorrow morning with re- gard to the activity developing on the cold front. /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/ Morning surface analysis shows dewpoints back in the low/mid 60s and temperatures in the low/mid 70s. Water vapor imagery shows upper low over the 4 Corners region which will be the main system supporting the severe weather potential for tomorrow.