Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with warmest readings from Springfield southwest and dewpoints peaking in the low to mid 70s. MCS activity over the upper MS river valley and into far northern IL/IN should stay north of CWA today with strong CAP in place due to 592 dm 500 mb subtropical ridge over the mid MS river valley. A cold front will advance se toward northern IL late tonight and will see increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over central IL, while southeast IL likely stays dry tonight. The cold front will push southeast into central IL Thu afternoon and thru southeast IL Thu night. Highs Thu range from mid 80s north of Peoria to the lower 90s from I-72 south.
243 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures are on track and will generally be in the lower 70s. High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to ridge into the forecast area today. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are expected today, in the lower 90s. Upper ridge attempts to slowly build in from the Atlantic. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
A warming trend is then expected late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as upper level high pressure rebuilds in from the Desert SW.
After morning showers and storms, today will feature enhanced warmth and continued humidity with warm advection under flat ridging. Models, hires and operational, are in good agreement that any late day convection will be confined to the far north as another wave rides over top of the ridge. A west-southwest flow in the lower and mid-levels will promote the further enhancement of warmth and humidity beneath the intruding waves.
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to extend across the region through the next several days, with winds and seas expected to remain below headlines.
After morning showers and storms over the north, today will feature enhanced warmth and continued humidity with warm advection under flat ridging. Models, hires and operational, are in good agreement that any late day convection will be confined to the far north as another wave rides over top of the ridge. A west-southwest flow in the lower and mid-levels will promote the further enhancement of warmth and humidity beneath the intruding waves.
Western Atlantic ridge will continue to strengthen and build westward deepening the easterly flow.
246 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge centered just to our north over OK with an upper low spiraling across southern TX.
Weak warm frontal boundary across northern IL with warm and humid air mass across central IL. Cooler temperatures as low as the upper 70s lingering after the morning thunderstorm complex along I-74 corridor as of 2 p. Heat will then build to the highest levels of the week with highs in the low to mid 90s, highest around the Springfield/Jacksonville area, and dewpoints continuing in the 70s.
Surface cold associated with this low will be southeast of the MPX cwa by this afternoon. Though the wind shift will be southeast of our area, the higher dewpoint and warmer air will not be as quick to pass off to the southeast and from the New Ulm, up to the Twin Cities and over to Chippewa Falls, we'll see dewpoints drop out of the 70s this morning, but hang up in the upper 60s through the day, with highs still climbing into the mid/upper 80s.
/Issued 504 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ An upper level ridge of high pressure over much of the southern states will be the dominant force in our weather for the next 7 days.
642 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A very warm day is in store for the region as a warm frontal boundary lifts north today and precipitation chances diminish.
204 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A very warm day is in store for the region as a warm frontal boundary lifts north today and precipitation chances diminish.
Once the warm front lifts north of the area this afternoon the storms will be more scattered until the evening hours. Overnight tonight into Thursday morning an area of thunderstorms head of the cold front will cross the area and bring most areas is Southwest Michigan thunderstorms.
A cold front will then settle into northwest Kansas this afternoon, with post frontal upslope winds over most of the area by late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmest along southern fringes ahead of the front, in the upper 90s, with the rest of the area in the low to mid 90s. Southeasterly surface flow will continue to advect low level moisture into the area, but with cloud cover and cooler temperatures instability will be limited in the afternoon. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Our forecast area will be under the the influence of a developing deep- layer ridge tonight. Thursday may see less coverage of convection as upper level ridging and slightly air drier temporarily move into the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s for Wednesday, but then warming into the mid 90s for Thursday with less coverage of convection and cloud cover. Lows are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s.
Water vapor imagery is showing ridging along the southern tier of states. A cyclonic circulation associated with an inverted trough is located southeast of Big Bend in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila. This inverted trough will inch slowly west under the ridge through the end of the week. This will increase the chances of thunderstorms along the higher terrain.
For late this afternoon and evening, the highest CAPE values (2000 J/kg +) will mostly be acrs Kiowa county. Temps will be cooler today, and slightly below average.
Slightly cooler air has settled over the area and will remain for the next couple of days, though temps will still be slightly above average. Highs today will be in the 80s and lower 90s, and then slightly warmer on Thursday.
325 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will slowly push offshore today as high pressure builds down from the northwest. The front will stall off the coast on Thursday as a small wave of low pressure tracks to our south.
223 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Wx map shows climatological surface Bermuda high ridging westward across the Gulf, providing a light south to southeast flow across the region. High pressure aloft covers most of the Midwest into the Gulf states region. With ridging aloft, precip chances would normally be suppressed. So far, not happening this summer, as we continue into a fairly wet period with ample moisture in the ground, and most of the lower and mid layers of the atmosphere.
Have gone above guidance, considerably in some cases as moisture and instability should be able to overcome building upper ridge, especially across west central portions of the area. Things will be changing for Thu as upper ridge really begins to exert its influence with a 595dm high over the Carolinas and ridge extending into the southern half of our area. Temps will be on the increase with ridge axis and some mid 90s enter the picture for far southern sections of the forecast area.
Today Through Thursday Night The short term period will be characterized by summer time ridging aloft in place over the SRN/SERN CONUS.
This activity could be enhanced by an upper level inverted trough between the Rio Grande Plains and northeast Mexico.
For today, a strong low-level thermal ridge and gusty south- southwesterly winds should yield high temperatures similar to what was observed yesterday- but likely adding a degree or two on for southeastern Kansas. Storms may develop along and just north of a cold front across far southern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas late this afternoon/evening, with most of that convection likely remaining north of I-70 in central Kansas.
Northerly winds and cooler temperatures are in store for Wednesday behind the departing cool front. By 00Z Thursday, the 500mb pattern will show the 500mb low along the Manitoba/Ontario border, with zonal flow giving way to ridging from the west across our area.
Deep layer ridging will prevail across the region through today. High temperatures will peak in the lower 90s, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s.
As the feature over wrn CO moves across there will be some showers over the higher terrain this morning and across portions of the plains especially north of a Denver to Akron line into the early aftn hours with a few tstms possible. By mid to late aftn there should be redevelopment of showers and tstms over the higher terrain. Thus will keep the highest pops in this general area for this aftn into the early evening hours. For tonight showers and a few storms will linger over the higher terrain thru early evening before diminishing. Across the plains will keep the highest pops thru the evening hours south of a denver to Akron line. The upper ridge axis is still a bit west of the CWA on Thursday.
Lingering moisture and easterly surface winds should also allow diurnal weak convection to form over the mountains and foothills, but expect a mid level cap to form as heights slowly rise through the day, so do not feel that thunderstorms will impact the lower elevations outside of those areas already mentioned. Upper ridge will continue to strengthen Thursday as heights return to the lower 590s, w/ a 700mb thermal plume to near +15C.
The highest pops will be across the far southeastern zones.
However, as has been the case yesterday and again today, the higher elevations will be favored for the more wetting rains. Heights will rise over the forecast area for the latter half of the week under a building upper level ridge late Thursday. Even so, residual moisture under the ridge will keep diurnal mountain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. By the beginning of the new week, extended models have the axis of the ridge shifting to the Midwest. As the ridge progresses east this should open the gate for another surge of moisture to be pulled in from down south, bringing an increased chance for precipitation to much of the region as well as knock temperatures back down several degrees.
At the surface, low pressure was located across southwest Manitoba, with a cold front running south through central ND and western SD. Wednesday will be a little cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The heat will return as the ridge and high pressure rebuild over the intermountain west and the Rockies.
VFR conditions will continue thru the TAF period, beneath a ridge of high pressure aloft. Temperatures will be similar on Thursday with a slightly better chance of the showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as deeper moisture moves into the region and some weakness develops in the upper level ridge aloft.
340 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 One more day of dangerous heat is expected today before we get a respite thanks to a weak cold front. Today, will be the warmest day of the week thanks to continued upper level ridging over much of the southern CONUS as well as modest southwest flow at the surface. Factoring in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and, heat index values will rise into the 102 to 107 range. This will enhance thunderstorm development along the cold front as in pushes south through Iowa. The low level jet will weaken Thursday morning allowing thunderstorms to diminish with the cold front still near the Iowa/Missouri border.
Thursday will still be active with surface heating triggering more storms that will again be slow moving as heights rebound with new ridge building overhead.
Will issue a Heat Advisory for most of the DVN CWA for heat index readings of 100-105+ degrees from noon through 8 PM, with expected high temps in the low to mid 90s, and pooled/evapo- transpiration juiced sfc DPTs in the mid to upper 70s along outflow boundaries and lingering warm/quasi-stationary front.
The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. High pressure aloft continues to retreat to the Plains States this evening. A deepening marine layer depth and better marine intrusion will occur into Wednesday, then start to recede and thin as high pressure aloft reasserts itself and builds back into Four Corners Region on Thursday.
A broad upper ridge, centered over the heart of the nation, will continue to be the dominate weather feature for the next 24 hours.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Expect partly cloudy skies to prevail overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s. Highs will climb into the low 90s again across the area.
A cold front is expected to move into the area from the northwest this morning before stalling out near the Kansas/Nebraska border by late afternoon, possibly pushing even further south than currently forecast. The upper ridge axis over the Rockies rebuilds and expands east onto the Central Plains for the latter part of the workweek, with the little change in the ridge dominated pattern through the weekend.
328 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A pronounced warming trend begins across the area today as high pressure ridging builds across the region, with high temperatures Thursday through the weekend reaching the 90s to possibly 100+ over parts of the plains. A pronounced warming and drying trend will begin today as high pressure ridging aloft builds across the region. CC The unseasonably strong ridge over the western US early in the period will gradually be flattened with time over the weekend as an upper level low over the NE Pacific gradually works inland across WRN Canada.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures are on track and will generally be in the lower 70s. High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to ridge into the forecast area today. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are expected today, in the lower 90s. Upper ridge will be centered across the southeastern states through the period. Even with the ridging over the area, model soundings showing little in the way of capping over the area. With the high PW values and potential for slow moving/stationary storms, any showers/thunderstorms that do form could produce locally heavy rainfall.
Upper level ridge stretches across the southern Conus today, with the main synoptic storm track well to our north. The upper level ridge is messy, with several weaknesses noted across the Southeast, which will aid in daytime convection.
Low pressure over the NE Pacific and high pressure over the Rockies will keep a fairly static weather pattern in place over the region for the next several days.
Temperatures will be similar on Thursday with a slightly better chance of the showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as deeper moisture moves into the region and some weakness develops in the upper level ridge aloft.
/issued 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Dry and warm weather will continue through the end of the week as the ridge of high pressure remains elongated across the Panhandle into the central U. The good news is that the ridge will slowly break down through the week with lowering heights a few decameters every day so we may have seen/will see the warmest temperatures yesterday and today. Until then, temperatures will remain near to a degree or two warmer than normal for both highs or lows.
Much Wetter in the Higher Terrain Next 24 Hours With Burn Scar Water Vapor imagery tells the story today as the monsoon moisture plume is over the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rain, were noted across a good part of the higher terrain at 2 pm. Areas of the plains closer to the mtns were in the lower 90s, except for Pueblo which was 97F. Most numerous showers and storms rest of today and early evening will be across the higher terrain. Overall, anticipate lots of clouds over all of the region tonight with showers continuing most of the night across the higher terrain. Locally heavy rain will also be possible across the lower elevations of El Paso county tomorrow late afternoon. Max temps over the region will be 4 to 6F cooler than today.
307 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cold front remains well off to the northwest of the area at 07Z stretching from northwest Minnesota across eastern South Dakota and into northwest portions of Nebraska. Short range models bring the cold front into northeast Nebraska by 12Z with a continued chance of thunderstorms in advance of the front from south central Nebraska into southwest Iowa through the morning and early afternoon as front continues to work its way south to the Kansas border by late this afternoon. More significant convection with potential for heavy rain will be possible tonight as storms focus on the quasi-stationary boundary near the Kansas border and a mid level trough moves into the region helping to enhance vertical motion.
341 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A weak upper trough continued over Southeast Texas this morning. The models show the 500 mb ridge building overhead but there are some differences from the past few model runs.
Subsidence beneath ridge axis will greatly limit convective potential south of K-96.
351 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Upper ridging extends from the Bahamas westward across much of the southern tier of the United States. With temps reaching into the lower and mid 90s again, afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
An upper level inverted trough positioned across the western Gulf of Mexico and the Texas coast will provide marginal support for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development through the period.
Latest model NAM and GFS guidance shows deeper moisture in place across the region today, eliminating the wedge of drier air in the low to mid levels that had been present in prior runs.
A cold front approaching from the northwest will sag slowly southeast across our region this weekend. There has been little to no change in airmass, with high pressure dominating aloft and warm, moist southwesterly flow at the surface. As a result, expect another warm, humid night with lows in the low to mid 70s and RHs in the 90-100 percent range. Temperatures will continue to go up on Wednesday as the subtropical ridge builds over the Carolinas and thickness values approach 1440. Lows in the lower 70s. Another hot day expected Thursday with limited rain chances, thanks to persistent pattern with ridging aloft. The main weather story will be highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.
The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning.
With the CU field developing across eastern Colorado this afternoon as the convective inhibition decreases and a few storms already developing over the higher terrain along the front range with weak impulses expected to move east out of the Rockies in the westerly flow aloft, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may move out of eastern Colorado this afternoon and across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this evening. The atmosphere becomes more unstable as afternoon temperatures rise into the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints rise into the lower to mid 60s. Over the weekend, an upper ridge of high pressure retrogrades to the west over the Great Basin. Weak disturbances rotate around the eastern periphery of the ridge as some moisture filters north.
Plan on lows in the lower to middle 70s. For Wednesday, low pressure tracking across the lower Great Lakes will allow stronger southwesterly flow to setup across Kentucky and southern Indiana. It should be the warmest day of the week and one of the warmer days of the summer so far with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Very mild conditions are expected Wednesday night with readings slow to fall and only dipping down into the lower 70s.
These showers seem to extend south of the front, with cooler and more stable air behind it further to the north where showers are dissipating. Kept the highest POP between Laramie and Sidney along and south of I-80 today.
A cold front will start to leak into central SD by mid afternoon as mid and upper level frontal forcing also increases. This band has the potential to bring a little bit heavier precipitation and will focus the higher threat for greater than 3 to 5 inches in northwest IA. Throughout the late afternoon and evening there will be a threat for a brief period of sleet or freezing rain but without and warm air wrapping back over the cold low level air not concerned about any widespread icing problems at this time.
An upper level trough continues to move slowly across the area tonight. A cold front that moved through the area earlier has moved into Idaho and rain showers are winding down from the Blue Mountains eastward and should mostly end overnight.
An upper level low will move out of the Four Corners region and into the Southern Rockies today before ejecting northeastward across Kansas. A cold front moves through the area tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected throughout the night. Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging builds across the western United States with northwest flow above western Kansas.
Moist east winds in the lower troposphere were continuing to advect nearly saturated air into our region, and we expect plenty of clouds overnight and throughout the day. Vapor imagery and upper-air data showed a cutoff low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, but the Q-G forcing/ascending air was east of the low, and will not impact our local weather. However, slight rising motion in the lower troposphere across north FL remains possible today, which could lead to patchy light drizzle/rain. High temperatures today will be above average (climo highs are in the low 60s), but tempered somewhat by the expected cloud cover. The NWP consensus is in the lower 70s, which seems reasonable.
/Issued 751 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018/ The southeasterly winds over the cooler waters have advected a cool marine layer inland across the Coastal Bend a bit quicker than expected this evening. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s most locations. Increasing moisture overnight Wednesday night with the approaching upper trough and a cold front will bring isolated showers across the coastal waters, northern Coastal Bend, into the Victoria Crossroads late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
1138 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will cross the region overnight and move east of the area Wednesday.
Expect lingering showers tonight and Wednesday as moist air and a weak warm front approach from the west.
239 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Synoptic Setup: A large pacific trough runs north from the Four Corners into Idaho. At this point An arctic airmass has begun to pour into it from the high plains of Montana and Alberta. To the west a large ridge is developing of the north American Coast. Today through tonight: With the cold front through quickly this morning rain has rapidly transitioned to snow.
With the surface and road temperatures at or below freezing, the moisture from the fog could create icy spots on untreated surfaces. For tonight, the models continue to show that a negatively tilted short wave trough will eject out of the Central Plains. However, as cold air starts to spill into the area behind a cold front in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, this precipitation will change to a wintry mix and then over to all snow. On Thursday, the short wave trough will move quickly to the northeast through northern Wisconsin. This will allow the cold front to move quickly east through the remainder of the area. Soundings suggest that the ice aloft will be move in quicker than originally thought and this will limit the threat for freezing rain.