Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low pressure system will bring an increase in cloud cover on Saturday, with a few showers possible across the southern terminals Saturday afternoon. Temperatures near freezing again in many locations, perhaps slightly warmer across the I-10 corridor where high clouds should begin to spread back into the area by morning. Upper low across Mexico will begin to move northeast towards Texas. Increasing cloud cover will also keep temperatures down, ranging from the lower 50s along I-10 to the near 60 degrees across the northern Big Country.
920 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 A cold front pushing through the FL Big Bend/nrn peninsula this evng is doing so with little fanfare and no precip. A weak cold front will push acrs the lcl Atlc overnight.
636 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move into the forecast area from the west tonight.
/issued 356 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ High pressure will gradually move east tonight. Southerly winds and warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday as the high shifts over the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
Otherwise, expect a cloudy night with low temperatures in the 30s north of a line from De Funiak Springs, FL to Fitzgerald, GA and lows in the low to mid 40s south of that line.
430 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front north and east of the area, with low pressure over central Alberta. Upper level analysis shows weakening ridge over the Rockies, with northwest flow persisting over the Northern Plains. Some higher amounts are likely across southern Campbell County, especially the higher elevations, so have issued a winter wx advisory for there.
Impacts will all depend on hourly rates especially over the passes in the highlands and a developing band across the Snake Plain.
Widespread -dz continues to sweep northeastward across the region this evening, as good overrunning continues behind the cold front. /issued 252 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): In the wake of the cold front last night, temperatures have cooled since midnight into the low 50s and upper 40s and remained steady the last couple of hours. Overcast skies and precipitation will keep highs down on Saturday into the low to mid 50s (normal highs are in the low 70s).
These southerly winds will help usher a warmer air mass into the area as highs top out in the lower 60s Saturday.
/issued 240 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017/ REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with sunny skies, light and variable winds. Overnight tonight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmer than the past few nights. SHORT TERM / THIS WEEKEND/: Upper level ridging over the Bahamas will begin to extend westward over the region this weekend. With this pattern in place we we will see a gradual rise in temperatures this weekend with highs in the low 80s.
Mid afternoon temperatures were around 30 degrees from Dubuque eastward and warmed into the low 40s west of a line from Independence to Burlington, where some sun broke through the cloud cover. Have favored the warmer end of guidance, and still may not be warm enough in the far south.
The first of these short waves, currently a closed low over the Gulf of California, will eject out over the Sierra Madre Mountains and eventually weaken during the day on Saturday. Additionally, surface lee troughing will strengthen on Saturday in response to this approaching upper level short wave.
600 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move across the southeastern US through the weekend. A trailing cold front extends from the Albemarle Sound southwest toward upstate SC. The boundary will continue shifting south as high pressure (that's currently centered over the southern Plains) begins to build in from the west. The high clouds should also finally exit to our east later this evening and overnight as the upper short wave trough axis (currently located over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys) crosses our area and moves east. The combination of mainly clear skies after midnight, diminishing winds (given the high that's building in), and a cooler airmass behind the aforementioned front. Tranquil weather expected during this time with NW flow and mid/upr short wave ridging, and high pressure over the area. Lows Saturday night around freezing.
534 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, southwest to south-southwest winds will increase and become gusty by mid to late Saturday morning as a surface trof of low pressure deepens over far southeastern CO and extends southward into eastern NM, leading to a corresponding tight surface pressure gradient and attendant gusty winds. /Issued 358 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ After the rather cool day across the Panhandles, Saturday will be rather pleasant with highs reaching into the lower to mid 60s. These warmer temperatures will be the result of south winds switching around out of a southwesterly direction.
644 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states.
/issued 241 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ An upper trough is over the Great Lakes region and extends southwest towards West Texas and Mexico. Expect temperatures today across the area to be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s. The extension of the upper trough over Mexico gets separated from the rest of the upper trough tonight and gets entrenched in the upper flow of another upper trough digging south over the west CONUS on Saturday. This upper trough will move over West Texas on Saturday and will increase upper lift over the area.
916 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states.
1043 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 A weak upper level trough will approach tonight and cross the area Saturday morning.
401 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Partial clearing this afternoon has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower/mid 50s over most of the area, though upper 40s are holding firm amid clouds and light rain over South Central LA.
Showers will wind down tonight as a trough exits and onshore flow eases. A weak warm front will clip the coast on Saturday with a chance of rain in the interior.
The surface and upper troughs move off to the east taking the RA/SHRA with them. A low latitude upper level low will track east across TX Saturday into Saturday night. A cluster of thunderstorms may become embedded in the broader areas of rain over far east counties Saturday evening as models develop a coastal trough east of VCT.
This will be where the highest accumulations will reside, though 24 hour values are still expected to be under advisory level thresholds. High pressure will begin to build eastward for the latter half of the day, ending any snow showers as the wind shifts more wsw and drying takes place through the column.
914 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move into the forecast area from the west tonight.
The main driver for the snow that is expected to move across the region is the isentropic lift associated with the low level Theta_E advection.
627 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 A dry cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure this weekend.
A dry cold front will move southward through the central California interior late tonight and be followed by blustery, cooler weather Saturday.
Risk of freezing drizzle while not zero appears rather low as saturated layer is a bit deeper than preferred with this system and while dry layer aloft moves in behind this system Saturday morning unsure if enough lift to create any light precip in the fzdz variety.
It should be a quiet night with high pressure building in. Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 52 35 48 / 0 0 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 52 33 48 / 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 26 52 32 47 / 0 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 50 28 49 / 0 0 0 40.
Due to this on-shore flow along the North Shore, the concern then shifts to along the Highway 61 corridor for heavier snow amounts. The enhanced lift over the higher terrain of the North Shore, along with favorable 850 mb/lake temperature delta-Ts between 18 to 20 degrees below zero should support some lake effect snow. By late Saturday afternoon, drier and slightly warmer air will move into the Arrowhead region, which should bring the lake effect to an end as the soundings indicate a loss of ice crystals aloft. Upstream over the Brainerd Lakes region late Saturday morning and early afternoon, there may be a period of light freezing drizzle. Soundings indicate that aforementioned loss of ice crystals, but there's still shallow saturation below the ice-producing layer, indicating this period of freezing drizzle.
545 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southeast U. The southwest breeze will bring warmer air into the region tonight and Saturday. It's likely that temperatures will fall quickly this evening but steady off around midnight and hold in the low to mid 30s through daybreak. Carney The high amplitude pattern we've been stuck over the past several days is beginning to break down.
528 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 A fractured cloud deck is present over the region with this morning's flurry activity shut off by drying of the lower levels. In fact, if any precipitation does occur, a potential lack of saturation in the ice growth zone could just lead to some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle.
831 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper trough has brought snow showers to the region for tonight and early Saturday. No changes were needed for the eve update as snow shower coverage is in decline as expected with passage of the mid level trough axis. This will be where the highest accumulations will reside, though 24 hour values are still expected to be under advisory level thresholds. High pressure will begin to build eastward for the latter half of the day, ending any snow showers as the wind shifts more wsw and drying takes place through the column.
Northern branch upper jet remains to the north of the central Plains, with southern branch from southern Texas into the southeast states with an upper low over southern Baja. As the upper wave to the northwest splits to the north and southwest Saturday afternoon, a weak front pushes southeast into the area during the day, but south to southwest winds ahead of it and continued clear skies should allow for a noticeably warmer day.
Overnight lows for portions of Lake and Volusia counties will be slightly cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s, with highest values in the upper 60s for the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the L80s along the coast and M80s inland. ESE/SE winds will average 9-13 kts as high pressure pushes seaward from the mid Atlc coast.
5km winds pick up from the west-northwest (a better boundary layer mixing wind) with a subtle surface trofpa/pseudo weak warm front which should help nudge temperatures back up into, at least, the 20s and 30s cwa-wide.
617 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure continues dry and fair weather through this evening.
One inch averages are noted along the lower Ohio river, tapering to lesser amounts in our north and west.
645 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will continue to shift offshore tonight as a warm front begins to push north over the CWFA. While all models agree that a warm front will move north across the CWA Wednesday/Wednesday night, the issue is where the front will stall. NAM pushes the warm front into TN/NC keeping the heaviest rainfall north of the CWA.
There is some increase in mid level cloudiness over western Colorado with some weak lift starting in advance of the upper low off southern California Coast. Surface cold front still expected in northeast Colorado mid morning on Wednesday with increasing clouds later tonight and during the morning hours. GOES-16 water vapor shows the low center over southern California with the dry conveyor belt digging to the south. Moisture ahead of the upper level trough will help to bring snow to the mountains starting tomorrow afternoon. With the moisture and modest lift, light snow accumulations are expected over the higher terrain from tomorrow morning through the evening hours. With the highs in the 30s and 40s combined with gusty winds up to 20 mph, wind chill readings will be much cooler.
GOES-16 water vapor shows the low center over southern California with the dry conveyor belt digging to the south. Moisture ahead of the upper level trough will help to bring snow to the mountains starting tomorrow afternoon. With the moisture and modest lift, light snow accumulations are expected over the higher terrain from tomorrow morning through the evening hours. With the highs in the 30s and 40s combined with gusty winds up to 20 mph, wind chill readings will be much cooler.
75" south of I-72 closer to the better forcing from the low level jet and 850 mb theta-e advection/moisture transport.
402 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 As of this afternoon the radar is quiet as it appears the warm front currently working its way into our northwestern zones is not providing the lift needed for the generation of precipitation. The highest probabilities for any significant rainfall will be removed to northeastern Texas/Piney Woods region or north of this warm front as it travels northeastward across eastern Texas tonight.
A area of low pressure will gradually move eastward across the Desert Southwest today.
A nearly stationary front out over the Gulf just to the south of the forecast area this evening is expected to begin lifting back north as a warm front tonight. The warm front is expected to reach the coast late tonight or early Wednesday, then continue north through the day.
Wednesday looks like a nice day with widespread highs in the lower to mid 30s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light as another area of high pressure at the surface slides into the region from the west.
939 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure continues dry and fair weather through this evening.
Upper ridge continues to shift east through the Ohio Valley resulting in good WAA with gusty southerly winds through the evening. This will result in mostly showers focused south of warm front draped over north central and north eastern MO.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure near the Carolina coastline will progress eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an anticyclone will be centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the western Gulf of Mexico overnight.
The wedge of high pressure remains in place this afternoon along the Appalachian mountains, keeping a deck of low clouds across our southwest GA counties and north FL counties.
39 Scattered showers will persist over mainly the northern half of the CWA this evening as a warm front moves through the area. The warm front will be well north of the CWA on Wednesday and slightly drier air will work into the area with PW values falling to around 1. Water temps have warmed in the mid/upper 60's and surface dew points are in the lower 70s so conditions are still marginally favorable for patchy sea fog until the next cold front crosses the area. Upper level ridging over the Gulf expands northward a bit on Wednesday so lift will be somewhat limited and expect conditions to be mainly dry. High temperatures will warm a bit above normal and probably warm into the lower 80's away from the coast.
Sfc flow will veer to the west and increase over the next 24 hours as an upper-lvl trough approaches West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Our main concern for Wed in the potential for windy-very windy conditions as the strong trough moves very near the area and an assocd Pacific cold front surges hard east.
The axis of heavier rain will shift eastward through the afternoon and into the evening as a cold front pushes through.
Scattered mid and high clouds tonight may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning.
Wind speeds are generally below 30 mph over the Rockies and Eastern Glacier County, thus the highlights have been cancelled in this region.
Where the albedo is much higher due to the terrain/lack of vegetation in west central Minnesota, temperatures have only managed to rise into the low to mid 30s. Wednesday afternoon temperatures will be cooler than today, but still above normal for late February. Some residual sprinkles, flurries or freezing drizzle is possible along and east of this short wave, but most areas will remain dry. This is mainly due to an upper ridge building across the Plains, and Upper Midwest. Plus, a strong and blocking ridge will remain centered across southern Greenland. Over the past several runs of both the EC/GFS, and their ensembles, indicated that the upper ridge will hold longer across the Upper Midwest for the first half of the weekend.
The low level jet will strengthen across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend tonight to 40-50 knots which will help us stay rather warm tonight with low temps in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level clouds redevelop tonight.
Mozley Upper trough beginning to swing eastward through California this afternoon, with deep sw flow across all of srn CO. Models suggest winds diminish fairly quickly this evening as cold front and associated wind shift drops south through the plains, and will let Red Flag Warning expire on schedule at 5 pm. Upper trough pushes east through AZ overnight, with weak upward motion gradually spreading eastward toward the Continental Divide after 06z. Expect snow showers to break out after midnight initially over the ern San Juans, then spread northward to most of the high terrain along the Divide by sunrise Wed. Precip amounts look light, with just an inch or two of snowfall forecast for the higher terrain around Wolf Creek Pass. Remainder of the area will be seasonably cold overnight as clouds gradually increase ahead of the trough.
Can't rule out brief east coast MVFR SHRA this eve, but have kept out of forecast given the low coverage/impacts at the moment. The movement of the high will also help to move away the moisture associated with the weakening frontal boundary. The mid-level ridge will still be in place and will continue to have a similar influence on our weather.
A more vigorous upper level trough will track across the Plains toward the Ozarks later Wednesday. Progged surface features remain somewhat complex with a front draped across the lower Mississippi River Valley with another cold front and associated low pressure system coming into the area from the west.
935 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the region will move off the coast Wednesday morning. A weak warm front moving north through the region Wednesday will provide a chance of light rain.
503 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the region will move off the coast Wednesday morning. A weak warm front moving north through the region Wednesday will provide a chance of light rain.
A warm front will lift north overnight as low pressure tracks into Kansas with showers developing quickly across the Delta this evening spreading northeast overnight.
We will see a cold front move into the area beginning late tomorrow afternoon, with a wind shift to the north at Abilene possible before the end of the TAF period. Upper low over Arizona early Wednesday morning will move east across the Southern Rockies as an open wave during the day. A Pacific cold front will surge east across the area late Wednesday morning and afternoon.
a slow southward moving cold front has provided the region with sunny and dry conditions. Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 20s. cooler day for the CWA than the previous 2 as region lies on the north side of cold front.
Where rain is expected, surface temps should be above freezing. 50 inches, but that seems overdone and definitely on the high side of guidance.
802 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ A cold front draped from south central Nebraska through southeastern Minnesota will continue to slowly make its way through the region today. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60s across southern Iowa this afternoon. Northern Iowa was significantly cooler with temperatures struggling to reach the 40s in some locations. Some freezing drizzle will be possible as cooler air mixes in across west-central and northwest Iowa late Wednesday morning,and early afternoon.
1020 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
A warm front is now analyzed over southwest Arkansas with this boundary expected to move to the northeast through the night.
Upper level ridging will take hold across the central Plains late week, this will translate to warmer than average temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
At the surface a colder area of high pressure is building in which will lead to cooler temperatures tonight despite the clouds. There is a chance for light rain/snow in parts of northwest Wisconsin this evening, mainly across Price county due to weak broad- scale lift across the lingering cold frontal boundary, but due to limited layer moisture this may just end up being virga with no precipitation reaching the ground.
All guidance continues to depict a near-stationary west to east oriented warm front becoming established over our southern counties Wednesday night, with low level southerly flow and a 50 kt southwest LLJ oriented nearly perpendicular to the boundary.
Wed night through Sat) Zonal flow to start will translate to short wave ridging later Thu into Fri. Dry and relatively mild weather will be the result during this time, with high temperatures near freezing Thu and a little better than that on Fri. We'll observe a transition to more southwest flow aloft during Fri into Sat as longwave trough crashes the west coast of the United States. Major guidance suggests a Colorado low with associated inverted trough structure developing over the heart of the Red River Valley.
Continued moist, southerly flow will result in mild overnight lows and values were trended upward ranging from the mid 30s across central KS to the lower 50s in southeast KS. Some fog may also develop on the western periphery of the moist tongue and it looks like lows across central KS will remain just above freezing at this time. The cold front will usher in more seasonable air across much of the area on Wed, however locations across southern and southeast KS should see temperatures rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s prior to fropa in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Periods of light drizzle and patchy fog still expected to develop and spread north after 06Z with main question being extent of the drizzle or freezing drizzle as temperatures fall below freezing behind the front tonight. Sub-freezing temperatures will likely spread into southeast NE and southwest IA between 06Z and 12Z with light drizzle or freezing drizzle developing by 12Z in the far south then spreading north through the morning as surface temperatures also start their diurnal climb. Some periods of drizzle or freezing drizzle will continue Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening until the upper trough moves east of the area after 06Z/01.
It will remain mild otherwise with lows in the 40s tonight and highs in the low to mid 50s tomorrow.
534 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
These clouds are expected to keep overnight low temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than lows experienced early this morning. It should be noted that with each day of melting the snowpack, additional surface moisture becomes available and could contribute to the formation of freezing fog or hoar frost.
Southerly winds tonight with dewpoints in the upper 60s should keep temperatures rather steady in the low 70s. Rain chances look to be on the low side tonight with the bulk of any precipitation occurring NW of the area over central and north Texas.