Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As of 3pm, the cold front continues to push southeastward through the region, and is currently located between Manhattan and Topeka. These winds should lessen throughout the evening as high pressure quickly overspreads the area, with clear skies along with the light winds allowing temperatures to drop into the low 20s overnight.
The low level stratus deck on the backside of the front that moved through yesterday continues to slowly erode from west to east. Overnight lows in the low to mid 40s are expected. Despite the cold front passage, afternoon high temperatures remain near climatological norms in the upper 60s to near 70.
Frontal passage this morn/aftn helped bump east-southeast winds across the plains up to around 20 mph at times, while the higher elevations were gusty out of the west at 25-30 mph. West winds will start to increase again towards sunrise, and will become evident across the higher elevations initially. As for temps, look for highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains.
747 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
Increased cloud cover along with rain chances tomorrow will temper the max temperatures with highs generally in the mid 80s or cooler.
Cold front has pushed into the Gulf and drier air continues to filter into the local area this afternoon. Clear skies and lower dewpoints should allow for fairly efficient radiative cooling tonight and tomorrow night with lows dropping into the low to mid 50s north and the upper 50s and lower 60s south, which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year.
A ridge of high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes through LA and SETX and into the NW gulf. High pressure over the central sections of the country will quickly exit east through the next 12-24 hours while the next system moves in. The ridge of high pressure dropping into the plains behind the frontal boundary will move into the mid Mississippi Valley by Friday afternoon.
308 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 As of 3pm, the cold front continues to push southeastward through the region, and is currently located between Manhattan and Topeka. These winds should lessen throughout the evening as high pressure quickly overspreads the area, with clear skies along with the light winds allowing temperatures to drop into the low 20s overnight.
Cold front in the Texas Panhandle will ooze south overnight into west Texas and be located near the Pecos River by sunrise Friday and then in the Big Bend by Friday afternoon. /issued 210 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ Much warmer temperatures today as southerly flow helps drive our highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A weak trof to the west will help promote isentropic ascent, cultivating overcast skies north of the boundary. Scattered rain showers are expected on Friday across our eastern areas, mainly along the Lower Trans Pecos and northeastern Permian Basin.
137 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 Onshore flow will strengthen as a weak upper low moves across Southern California and northern Baja tonight and another moves across Northern California Friday night.
Should be another benign forecast period aviation-wise with high pressure remaining in control. A ridge of high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes through LA and SETX and into the NW gulf. High pressure over the central sections of the country will quickly exit east through the next 12-24 hours while the next system moves in. The ridge of high pressure dropping into the plains behind the frontal boundary will move into the mid Mississippi Valley by Friday afternoon.
Have updated the sky grids to reflect this, but otherwise the forecast is on track with lows falling into the mid to upper 60s north to the lower 70s central and south. A boundary behind Eta will move through the waters tomorrow, with high pressure building into the area for the weekend.
At the surface, winds will remain northerly as high pressure slides eastward from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Friday sees winds shift to the south, with weak ridging overhead. The afternoon and evening will be breezy, with a tightening surface pressure gradient and increasing flow at the lower and mid levels. All that to say, expect slightly warmer temps on Friday than previous days, but locations with snowpack remain a few degrees cooler. An upper trough looks to swing over the area through the weekend, with a surface boundary working across the area Saturday night.
Frontal passage this morn/aftn helped bump east-southeast winds across the plains up to around 20 mph at times, while the higher elevations were gusty out of the west at 25-30 mph. West winds will start to increase again towards sunrise, and will become evident across the higher elevations initially. As for temps, look for highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore Upper-level trough begins to pass through Friday night into Saturday, with the core of the upper jet passing over Colorado during the day. Upper-level wave moving through will likely bring some snow to the higher mountains near the Continental Divide Friday night into Saturday.
356 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 A dry cold front will slip through the area today offering only an increase in clouds. Strong high pressure will build across the area tonight, providing dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures.
1242 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Cold front moving through shifting the rain threat east of the area and allowing drier conditions into the region.
This ridge axis is starting to nose into our region leading to a col with light and variable winds. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a altostratus deck beginning to fill in across the Lower Keys and our western waters. Given the drier air moving in plus the ridge axis beginning to nose in, have lower pops for the overnight. Winds are slackening to light and variable across all of our waters as a ridge axis is nosing in from the northwest.
Very strong quasi-zonal flow exists over the SW Conus early this afternoon as the region remains parked between a low amplitude, positively tilted East Pacific trough and expansive subtropical ridging stationed over the western Gulf of Mexico. This flow pattern was tapping some thicker, subtropical high cirrus; and while thermal profiles were a few degrees warmer today, the reduced insolation resulting from the cloud cover seems to be keeping surface temperatures somewhat closer to those experienced yesterday (i. Heights aloft will slowly build over the weekend as more pronounced ridging amplifies through the Southwest.
The exception may be in northwest portions of the area where mid/high level cloudiness could increase late tonight with the passage of a weak trough. Otherwise, expect any clouds to clear out by late Friday morning as high pressure rebuilds over the ArkLaMiss.
(Today and tonight) Much cooler day on tap today behind cold front that moved across the area late yesterday. Rain chances increase tonight with the approach of the main upper trough.
Minimum temperatures around Malta and the higher terrain along the Canadian border were adjusted to hover within a few degrees of the current temperatures.
Regional skies were clear under a ridge of high pressure. Expect these elevated winds to continue until around sunset and therefore the High Wind Warning was extended until 4 PM MST. As a modest upper level trough continues to exit the region today, zonal flow with weak ripples in the flow pass through ahead of the next system Saturday. For now, left the High Wind Watches as is from the overnight shift due to the ongoing High Wind Warning this afternoon for the Arlington area. 5" QPF over the higher terrain with 6-8" of snowfall.
As a result, temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees warmer outside of the cloud cover. A weak cold front is set to move in tomorrow morning, working to keep high temperatures several degrees cooler than what we have experienced today. The cooler air will be short-lived, however, as winds turn back out of the south on Saturday. Afternoon highs on Saturday were bumped up a degree or two and may even trend warmer in later forecasts.
Otherwise expect clear conditions and some chillier temperatures than what we've seen in recent days, with lows dropping back into the low to mid 40s. Despite the cold front passage, afternoon high temperatures remain near climatological norms in the upper 60s to near 70.
1136 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Other than a weak crossing cold front Friday, high pressure and dry weather should persist across the region through Saturday.
Satellite shows clear conditions across much of the area this evening with the exception of a band of think high clouds over the southern portions of San Bernardino and Mohave counties associated with a trough off the SoCal coast.
A cool and dry airmass will move in tonight with lows falling into the 20s across the northern half of the area and the lower 30s closer to the Arkansas border. There will be a narrow corridor/tongue of increasing moisture and instability through the day ahead of the approaching cold front with dewpoints in the 55 to perhaps 60 degree range. It does appear that areas south of I-44, and especially closer to the MO/AR state line, will be closer to the higher instability and perhaps a strong to severe storm may occur with the second round Saturday evening.
This high will shift off to the east tomorrow. Tomorrow, the cool high pressure center will still influence our eastern zones. Along with the warmer temperatures comes the higher fire danger.
Positive tilted upper level trough approaching from the northwest was beginning to develop a few showers in our sw cwa while a band of snow was located in southern/eastern MN. Cold front extended from northern WI to central IA and then to nw OK. Tonight: Scattered showers into this evening as a cold front moves across the cwa. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Friday: Canadian high pressure brings wall-to-wall sunshine but a chilly day with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Friday night and Saturday: Deep trough will be digging into the Plains with a strengthening low level jet and increasing moisture into the dvn cwa. The main surge of rain and possible thunderstorms arrives Saturday into the evening as a strong cold front arrives.
As of 3pm, the cold front continues to push southeastward through the region, and is currently located between Manhattan and Topeka. These winds should lessen throughout the evening as high pressure quickly overspreads the area, with clear skies along with the light winds allowing temperatures to drop into the low 20s overnight. After the front moves through Saturday evening, northwest flow and weak CAA will move in on the back side of the strong upper trough.
829 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Strong SW flow ahead of the next cold front will support windy conds over portions of NE WY and the northern Black Hills.
244 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Early this morning mid level flow was becoming nearly zonal across Kansas while a trough was moving off of the eastern Pacific at 08Z. Warm advection is expected on the back side of the high as lee side trough deepens. Showers move out early Saturday morning, while warm advection continues ahead of a cold front as the mid level wave moves across the region.
146 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Dry and much cooler weather is on tap today, as high pressure drifts east across the Midwest. Rain is expected to move into central Illinois Saturday morning, becoming widespread in the evening ahead of a cold front.
Warmer with a chance for showers and a few storms Saturday. Cool high pressure will track across the area today keeping temperatures in the 40s with dry conditions expected. Upper-level ridging will spread across the CONUS through the week, pushing the jet stream north of the region and allowing for the near normal to above normal temperatures and dry condition to persist through the end of the week.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 42 68 54 68 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 39 66 50 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 39 65 50 65 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 35 64 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 30.
1029 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Strong SW flow ahead of the next cold front will support windy conds over portions of NE WY and the northern Black Hills.
305 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 An early morning cold front will bring a breezy morning and cooler conditions to the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Thanks to an early morning cold front, a few linger showers may be possible through the morning commute mainly for locations north of the I-80 corridor.
945 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 Onshore flow will strengthen as a weak upper low moves across Southern California and northern Baja tonight and another moves across Northern California Friday night.
Models picking up on the wetter offshore IVT plume with the higher probability of IVT >500 kg/ms between 38N and 47N shown in the GFS/ECMWF Ensemble guidance.
Aloft the deep layer ridge is entrenched across Florida. Early in the week, the deep layer ridge breaks down allowing a cold front to pass through the area. The low clouds mentioned above are producing MVFR conditions which will lift after sunrise.
Clouds will begin to develop, becoming more bkn to ovc as we go past sunrise tomorrow morning, especially in the wake of the north to south moving cold front. Going into the day tomorrow, bkn to ovc skies expected as good H700-500 moisture transport advects into the region downstream of a positive H500 trough with its axis near Baja California by tomorrow morning. The vort max further displaces from the apex of the trough axis is pretty tame which will limit vertical growth downstream. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 50s across the Panhandles. Meccariello An upper level short wave trough will move quickly across Colorado and Kansas on Saturday.
Cold front has moved through all terminals at this time, with remaining scattered shower activity well south of these sites. High pressure will quickly build southward into the region behind the cold front with north wind weakening by daybreak, and then gradually veering east and southeast Friday. /Issued 819 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ A cold front continues to sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and is currently located near a KROG to KMLC line.
At the surface, high pressure builds east across the Mississippi River Valley, eventually settling into the Appalachians and mid- Atlantic coast this weekend.
637 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 An early morning cold front will bring a breezy morning and cooler conditions to the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Thanks to an early morning cold front, a few linger showers may be possible through the morning commute mainly for locations north of the I-80 corridor.
/issued 344 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ This morning will start with an upper ridge centered over the Gulf and an upper trough off Baja. This trough will move east today and tonight with the trough axis merging Saturday with another trough moving out of the Great Basin as it crosses the mountains.
Aloft the deep layer ridge is entrenched across Florida. Early in the week, the deep layer ridge breaks down allowing a cold front to pass through the area.
Strong upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains Saturday, driving a strong cold front through the region during the day.
The low level jet may produce patchy drizzle from the southeastern Hill Country across the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains early to mid morning. A cold front currently dropping south over Western and Northern Texas will stall across parts of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Central Texas by late morning. Regardless of the frontal stall placement, high temperatures will be at least a little cooler due to the overcast skies lasting longer into the day, with minor additional cooling in the wake of the front due to weak cold advection. An upper level short wave trough will move across the Central Rockies tonight and the Central Plains on Saturday. Only patchy late night into early morning fog is expected as the lower level flow will be stronger.
a strong low pressure system beginning to move onshore over Washington and Oregon. Upper low continues to approach through the morning and afternoon.
A relatively deep, open upper level trof will pass through the upper and middle MS River valley Saturday night. An associated surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth Saturday night, intercepting modest elevated instability and shear above 925mb.
Temperatures were running a few degrees above expected in the cloudy areas of the east in the lower to mid 50s but colder west and southwest with temperatures there in the upper 30s to lower 40s. High pressure was building south from the Great Lakes and upper Midwest early this morning with Tropical Storm Eta now off the North Carolina coast.
322 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into far western South Dakota. Strong upper level trof currently moving into the Pacific Northwest track across the Rockies/Plains tonight into Saturday. While cold advection/pressure rises are on the low side for a high wind event, low level lapse rates combined with strong subsidence are favorable to tap into increasing 2000-4000ft agl winds. An inch or two of snow possible in the higher elevations.
A strong cold front has moved through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, leaving a 20 to 25 degree north to south difference in temperatures early this morning. Temperatures have just fallen to freezing near the Kansas border, and no changes will be made at this time to the existing Frost/Freeze headlines. The front will begin moving northward across the area as a warm front this evening and continue into the overnight. Parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely see the highest coverage, with thunderstorm chances also increasing, especially after midnight. Much of this activity will continue past sunrise, although decreasing coverage is expected toward midday as the low level jet wanes. As a result, the high temperature forecast reflects west to east gradient and lower afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances than reflected in the national blended guidance.
957 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 A dry cold front will slip through the area today offering only an increase in clouds. Strong high pressure will build across the area tonight, providing dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures.
635 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 A dry cold front will slip through the area today offering only an increase in clouds. Strong high pressure will build across the area tonight, providing dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures.
With some stations still reporting fog and temperatures still hovering around to just below freezing, will continue to monitor for any freezing fog potential. Tonight, a chance for lake effect showers will persist while temperatures come in several degrees warmer than the previous night. Expect lows generally in the low to mid 30s.
This feature will send a reinforcing cold front through the area today. This trend will persist into Saturday as strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the north, albeit more east of due north as its steadily shifting east.
Temperatures were warmer across western Wisconsin where there was lingering cloud cover, and also warmer across western Minnesota where there was increasing southerly winds. By Saturday afternoon an upper level trough will advance eastward, and isentropic ascent ahead of this wave will lead to saturation, cloud cover, and could produce some light precipitation by Saturday evening across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Surface temperatures should be above freezing, so mainly expecting a rain/snow mix or all light rain with little to no travel impacts.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will promote ridging aloft and therefore limit precipitation chances through Saturday. Expect Saturday to be mostly cloudy and even warmer, with highs in the low 90s over the Brush Country to the mid 80s near the coast as an upper-level trough over the southwest CONUS shifts east-northeastward.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over northeast KS/southeast NE with a cold front stretching from central TX into southeast MO. Below normal temperatures will be in place area wide today with highs topping out in the low to mid 50s. Cold front is expected to move through the forecast area Sat, likely moving through the ICT area in the 21-00z time frame. To start the work week upper ridging will be strengthening over the Great Basin/Northern Intermountain and eventually into the Rockies, keeping northwest flow aloft over the northern/central Plains. Cold front will pass across the area on Sat.
(Today and tonight) Cold front was sagging across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning, with north to northeast winds across the Big Country.
509 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Dry and much cooler weather is on tap today, as high pressure drifts east across the Midwest. Rain is expected to move into central Illinois Saturday morning, becoming widespread in the evening ahead of a cold front.
319 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2020 A weak weather system will move through the area today with breezy winds and light snow possible over the high Sierra. Most of the moisture will remain to the north leaving only low chances for snow across the higher elevations of the southern Sierra and the far reaches of northern Lincoln County. With a strong mid-level jet sinking southward, winds will increase over the higher elevations of the Sierra this evening with gusts around 60 mph possible.
Quickly-passing high pressure will provide a chilly but bright Friday.
We continue to have low confidence that freezing rain will occur, especially tonight when the upper levels will have cooled down behind the cold front and it will be unstable, supporting more snow showers with gusty winds more than anything else.
Early this morning mid level flow was becoming nearly zonal across Kansas while a trough was moving off of the eastern Pacific at 08Z. Warm advection is expected on the back side of the high as lee side trough deepens. Showers move out early Saturday morning, while warm advection continues ahead of a cold front as the mid level wave moves across the region.
344 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 This morning will start with an upper ridge centered over the Gulf and an upper trough off Baja. This trough will move east today and tonight with the trough axis merging Saturday with another trough moving out of the Great Basin as it crosses the mountains.
On Saturday, an upper trough moves in with a sfc fropa.
A cold front currently extending across southwest Illinois into southeast Missouri will push east of the PAH forecast area this morning. Northwest winds will increase to around 10 kts just behind the front this morning, then high pressure moving over the middle Mississippi valley late today into this evening will decrease winds to less than 5 kts as they gradually turn northeast. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday and several degrees below normal, with highs generally in the 50s. By late tonight, models lift a warm front toward the PAH forecast area. Showers will spread across the rest of the PAH fa through the day Saturday as the warm front lifts across our region. As a cold front moves toward us from the west late today into tonight, showers will become likely across our entire region.
400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Near zonal flow aloft across the area today with warmer air aloft quickly spreading east over the area. The pressure gradient tightens east of this trough with gusty south to southwest winds.
306 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Today and Tonight: High pressure is building into the region, continuing the drier weather and mild temperatures.
Ahead of this system, southwesterly upper level winds will advect in some warmer air.
This will also bring warmer air into the region, although the lower valleys will be harder to warm.