Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Main synoptic setup remains the same with broad high pressure over the Western US with ridge axis just off the West Coast.
1012 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
405 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Generally quiet weather is anticipated through the short term, thanks to northwest flow aloft and high pressure in the area at the surface. An upper ridge will be building over the region through the upcoming weekend.
20-25 knots of flow is near the lower threshold for storm organization, with little margin for error if 500mb winds end up weaker than currently progged. For now, the corridor of greatest concern for the strongest convection will likely be in the higher terrain along the Laramie range, where the overlap region between a corridor favorable dews above 50F and mid-level winds over 25 knots is present.
The increase in larger scale convergence will then help sharpen or augment a low level cold frontal boundary that is already slipping southward across the Great Lakes. A cold front over northern lower MI will drop trough southern MI early this afternoon presenting a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly between 12-18Z before northwesterly winds usher in a drier and more stable airmass heading into the weekend. The rest of the day should be dry and quiet which will carry through the weekend as large area of high pressure drops into the Great Lakes from Canada. The cold front today will finally force out the hot and humid airmass with a thermal trough bringing 850mb temps in the upper single digits by Saturday.
440 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Latest surface analysis continues to show high pressure settling through the region resulting in light winds and cool temperatures. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast, with cyclonic flow over the upper midwest. For today, quiet weather is expected as upper ridge gradually builds eastward. Upper ridge building into the area will be the dominating feature through the weekend.
255 AM PDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and hot weather through Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected with a cold front passage late this weekend which allows for a cooler and potentially unstable and showery start to the following workweek.
Strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin and Mojave Desert will lead to above normal temperatures this weekend. Weak disturbance moving along the southern periphery of the high will interact with monsoon moisture leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Have kept some PoPs across the southwest through this evening and overnight to account for some activity that may develop to our west on the High Plains later today and could drift into our area. Temperatures will finally be cooler today in the post frontal airmass, as well as for the remainder of the forecast period. Highs today are expected to be in the low to mid 80s across the area along with easterly winds generally around 5-10 mph. Aloft we will generally remain in northwest flow the next few days as we stay wedged between the main ridging over the western CONUS and troffing over the Great Lakes region for a few more days.
/Issued 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021/ A complex of storms across SE KS associated with a cold front will continue to push southward this morning toward NE OK. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler with cloud cover and showers/storms around.
An upper-level dome of high pressure will gradually build west of the region keeping weak flow over the area with little activity with the exception of isolated showers in the afternoon. A pattern change is in store for the start of the work week as trough slowly digs into the region, amplifying the northwesterly flow.
Some locations may already be cooler as a result of afternoon rain.
/issued 415 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): An inverted 500mb trough looks to develop over the northwestern Gulf later today.
Predawn temperatures were already in the 70s at most reporting locations, indicating values are a touch cooler than the same time yesterday. While somewhat cooler than yesterday, it will not be by a whole lot. PoPs will remain over the Nrn half of the state overnight as the cold front enters the state. Overall, QPF amounts should remain on the lower side, generally half an inch to around a inch, with isolated higher amounts possible. Temperatures will be cooler with precipitation/cloud coverage more prevalent. The cold front should push across the state on Saturday.
Generally quiet weather is anticipated through the short term, thanks to northwest flow aloft and high pressure in the area at the surface. An upper ridge will be building over the region through the upcoming weekend.
A subtropical ridge currently extending across the southeastern U.
Confidence is not high for much weather due to vicinity of temporary high pressure aloft. Convection should end by middle to late afternoon with high pressure settling back in tonight.
617 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge that has kept Texas in the searing heat will start to break down today as a trough over the Great Lakes starts to dig further south. A cold front located over the Central Plains will dip into the Southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of it, a weak area of low pressure will develop over the Panhandle and drift slowly eastward. Despite the higher chances for rain and more clouds, the airmass is still quite warm, so high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today. Otherwise, the airmass will continue to be warm and humid overnight, allowing for low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Weak upper trough is expected to drop down Sat, and that looks to push a weak frontal boundary down across the mid-state late in the day as well. On Thu however, the system will be weak and well east, but another upper trough will already be moving into the picture.
1247 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warm temperatures expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure continues to control the weather across eastern Idaho.
Afternoon highs will be seasonal for this time of year, with highs in the low 90s under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Issued a Flood Watch starting later tonight for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties as Tropical Cyclone Fred brings heavy rainfall to the local area through the weekend. Increased moisture to the area tonight and into tomorrow as Tropical Cyclone Fred nears the Florida peninsula.
Look for afternoon highs only up into the 80s(F) in central Kansas with the lower 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorm chances linger into Saturday as medium range models indicate ridging aloft shifting east through the Intermountain West, setting up a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will set the stage for possible thunderstorm development as H5 vort maxima associated with a weak jet core track southeast out of the Northern High Plains into the high plains of western Nebraska and western Kansas. 5 west of the highway 283 corridor is in place - meaning any heating and destabilization may allow an otherwise unsuspected area of thunderstorms to develop.
456 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight. Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are forming at this time as the wrn OH MCV approaches, with increasing coverage as a cold front impinges on the area. Broken record forecast continues with scattered storms expected to develop again this afternoon and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Convection has largely been contained by warmer air aloft but eventually will begin to fire as convective temperatures are met and an upstream MCV apparent in latest satellite imagery begins to have an impact later this afternoon. The trough axis will pass through late tonight and drag the surface cold front southeastward. Until the trough and surface boundary pass, the risk for showers and storms continues.
Still this afternoon, the reflectivity returns across the south indicate sprinkles while the visible satellite red band imagery supports the thicker mid level stratus associated with the upper deformation zone - which all still supports the cooler solution trend.
141 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Satellite imagery shows a dry northwest flow over our region, with a ridge centered over the great basin, and some monsoon moisture extending from the southwest CONUS to the Sierras/Cascades (i. Location of ridge axis will keep our region dry over the next 36 hours, but there could be a few high-based weak thunderstorms over our southern mountains Saturday afternoon and evening. We will see heights build slowly as the ridge broadens to the east. As the ridge builds eastward, we will likely see an increase in wildfire smoke from the numerous western fires.
124 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight. Broken record forecast continues with scattered storms expected to develop again this afternoon and continue tonight with the passage of a cold front. Convection has largely been contained by warmer air aloft but eventually should begin to fire as convective temperatures are met and an upstream MCV apparent in latest satellite imagery make it to the region later this afternoon. The trough axis will pass through late tonight and drag the surface cold front southeastward. Until the trough and surface boundary pass, the risk for showers and storms continue.
Through the next 24 hours the monsoonal plume is progged to shift southward as upper level high pressure over the Rockies is able to build to the southeast behind a short wave trough exiting the central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Think valley rain chances will be highest in the evening and largely contingent on outflow boundary interaction from decaying storms in the higher terrain earlier in the day. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 72 89 71 / 30 60 40 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 71 89 70 / 40 70 40 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 70 88 69 / 40 60 40 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 67 85 67 / 40 70 40 80 40.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over our region through the weekend.
1048 AM PDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and hot weather through Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected with a cold front passage late this weekend which allows for a cooler and potentially unstable and showery start to the following workweek. Dense smoke and haze from area wildfires has kept us running several degrees cooler than this time yesterday. with not much improvement expected under a stable ridge.
Weakening cold front has about reached I-70 with another boundary across northwest AR into SE Missouri led to more potent band of early morning storms that produced locally heavy rain over Oregon County. Less confidence exists with redevelop of convection to the west though an MCV/upper low south of EMP this morning is progged to move eastward into central MO this afternoon while another spoke of energy moves eastward along the KS/OK this evening. The true cold front was analyzed north of Interstate 70 across northern Kansas into northern Missouri. Widespread cloud cover will likely keep temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highest readings along the Missouri/Arkansas state line.
Mid afternoon surface pattern depicts the cold front along I-70 has moved little today and a new feature in an inverted trough extending from a low over central Oklahoma into the Joplin area. the inverted trough will provide the best focus for thunderstorm development across far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri this afternoon but isolated convection will be possible elsewhere. Coverage will then likely increase over southern Missouri this evening as the inverted trough eases more eastward in orientation as the cold front finally reaches the area. Better storm chances will then be over southern Missouri into Arkansas tonight in association with the slow moving cold front.
Temperatures this afternoon are in in the lower 80's across the whole area, with dewpoint temperatures falling to as low as 48 at KOFK.
The high PW airmass that remains in place will make for efficient rainfall with any storms that can develop. Still looking like we have a couple of weak waves that traverse the area to start the work week while a more pronounced trough moves into the Central Great Basin by mid week. These will bring periodic chances for showers and storms to the area throughout the week, though the best of these chances coming mid to late week as the deeper trough approaches the region.
Ridging over the area will bring temperatures into the 90s this weekend.
1221 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Upper level disturbances and a cold front bring isolated/scattered showers and storms through Saturday, with heat and humidity again today. A cold front arrives Saturday. Showers and storms will ramp up again today, with the approach of a surface cold front, which will move across the area tonight, and upper disturbances moving across the area.
(This evening through Saturday) The weak upper level ridge that has resulted in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas through the last several days, is beginning to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across the western CONUS through the next 24 hours, placing West Central Texas in north flow aloft. This afternoon and evening, an outflow boundary/weak cold front will move into the Big Country. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 90s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon hours, with the highest concentration of activity in the vicinity of the boundary. Highs on Saturday will be below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
317 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Cooler with relatively dry air through the weekend - Warmer temperatures with an increased risk of showers midweek - Next more significant precipitation event late in the week - Cooler with relatively dry air through the weekend As well signaled by the MJO going into phase 2, and our models continue have been forecasting for over a week, the cooler air has arrived and will remain in place through the week. Actually the first few days of August will turn out be cooler than this push of cold air this weekend since the polar jet does not get south of us.
Meanwhile, high pressure to our north will remain in place through at least early Saturday, and with it the easterly flow.
A weak 500mb low/inverted trough is expected to develop across the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight with a 500mb high anchored across central Texas.
MinT values look similar to the last couple of nights with low temperatures in the lower/mid 70's inland and mid/upper 70's south and toward the coast. 75 inches as weak upper level ridging impinges on the area. MaxT value should again be similar or maybe a touch warmer than today with a few less clouds and slightly less precipitation.
Temperatures and dew points are noticeably cooler this afternoon and it feels much different outside. If there is any convection on the high plains could move into the area overnight and into Saturday morning. There continues to be a little chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but by evening the instability is a little better and convection from the high plains could be affecting the western part of the forecast area.
234 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 As the upper trough exits tonight, upper ridging will build back in. Northwest flow aloft continues to weaken and upper flow comes to be dominated by the upper high over the intermountain west. A subtle mid level trough may exist over the area early in the period, with some available mid level instability. Second, BUFKIT profiles hint that the boundary layer will remain just moist enough for surface based convection in the vicinity of this weak upper trough (through the lack of a surface boundary could be an issue with identifying a placement of any storm activity).
219 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Upper level ridge returns to the area this weekend resulting in dry conditions and well above normal temperatures.
211 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Through Saturday: Broad mid/upper troughing over the eastern US will build slightly southward as we head into the weekend, with an associated cold front seeping slowly through the Mid MS Valley and into the Mid South.
Highs tomorrow will range in the low to upper-90s, with overnight lows both tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-70s.
347 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend, bringing cooler and less humid conditions. Cold frontal boundary in the Great Lakes will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s northwest behind the front to around 70 southeast. On Saturday, the cold front will exit south into Kentucky. There may be a lingering shower early in the southeast; otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. It will be drier and cooler as our low level flow will be from the north to northeast around 10 to 15 mph. To start the period, broad high pressure extends over much of the Great Lakes region.
The mid/upper level ridging along/off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather through Tonight and into Saturday. Overnight temperatures will continue to be on the muggy side with lows in the lower/middle 70s across the Midlands and CSRA. Saturday, mid/upper level high pressure along the Carolina coast will gradually begin weaken and slide a little farther eastward through the day. Time sections show some mid/high level clouds on Saturday which should prevent temperatures from being any warmer than Friday's highs. Expect similar temperatures with most areas in the low/mid 90s.
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Upper level disturbances and a cold front bring isolated/scattered showers and storms through Saturday, with heat and humidity again today. A cold front arrives Saturday. Showers and storms will ramp up again today, with the approach of a surface cold front, which will move across the area tonight, and upper disturbances moving across the area.
Behind all of this is a weak cold front that will slide in late tonight into early tomorrow morning and bring additional showers and a few storms. We will start the weekend off with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms front a weak cold front. Temps will be a tad cooler with the increased cloud cover and persistent rain chances with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Given the higher levels of moisture and cloud coverage, temperatures will be cooler this week. /issued 308 AM MST Fri Aug 13 2021/ Weak pop-up cells were occurring this early this morning across parts of southeast Arizona probably aided by a very weak upper low that was over SW AZ.
The cold front has brought back west to northwest flow and has ushered in some cooler and less humid conditions with highs today and Saturday expected to just be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. The large scale upper level trough will push east of area into Saturday likely bring back large scale weak ridging across the region bringing a more stable environment overall.
141 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight. Broken record forecast continues with scattered storms expected to develop again this afternoon and continue tonight with the passage of a cold front. Convection has largely been contained by warmer air aloft but eventually will begin to fire as convective temperatures are met and an upstream MCV apparent in latest satellite imagery begin to have an impact later this afternoon. The trough axis will pass through late tonight and drag the surface cold front southeastward. Until the trough and surface boundary pass, the risk for showers and storms continue.
318 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
Closer to home, a secondary post-frontal sfc trof was noted from acrs northeast WI, sagging southwestward into the far northwestern CWA and acrs southwest IA. Large anti-cyclone complex loomed acrs the northern plains, with eyes on sliding southeastward and engulfing he mid MO RVR and Upper MS RVR Valley regions by Sat morning.
239 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 The cold front is slowly dropping across SE MI this afternoon, currently residing in between I-69 and M-59. Much drier air follows the front with upstream dewpoints over northern lower already down in the low 50s/upper 40s helping to clear skies out for tonight.
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front is moving through northern Arkansas at this time. Convective activity may see a lull near sunset before more precip moves in from the N overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Predawn temperatures were already in the 70s at most reporting locations, indicating values are a touch cooler than the same time yesterday. While somewhat cooler than yesterday, it will not be by a whole lot. PoPs will remain over the Nrn half of the state overnight as the cold front enters the state. Overall, QPF amounts should remain on the lower side, generally half an inch to around a inch, with isolated higher amounts possible. Temperatures will be cooler with precipitation/cloud coverage more prevalent. The cold front should push across the state on Saturday.
In addition, warmer and drier air aloft is having an influence on convective development based on the 12z KBMX sounding launched this morning.
151 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Latest satellite picking up on a growing cumulus field mainly over the higher terrain across the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges in addition to portions of the Rocky Mountains in CO as a few have begun to be tall enough to return echoes on the KCYS radar. Lingering broken cloud deck across the high plains have limited early diurnal heating with KIBM, KCYS, and KSNY reaching only in the middle 70s as of latest obs. Expect highs today to be on a touch cooler with upper 80s near Chadron but low to middle 80s across the rest of the high plains in WY and NE as well as west of the Laramie Range. Lows tonight from the low 50s into the upper 50s for most.
129 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Broad upper ridging covers the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Dakotas, and winds are light and variable. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, as the upper ridge persists and the low-level thermal ridge gradually strengthens and spreads eastward. Highs Saturday will be in the lower 90s on the plains, 70s/80s in the Black Hills.
Strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin and Mojave Desert will lead to above normal temperatures this weekend. Weak disturbance moving along the southern periphery of the high will interact with monsoon moisture leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Considerable cloud cover could be seen on recent satellite loops over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona which also clearly reveals the circulation of an inverted trough moving slowly to the west. Fairly deep moisture lingers over much of Clark, eastern San Bernardino and Mohave counties with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and precipitable water values of 1. The leading edge of the inverted trough is moving into much drier conditions below 700 mb over Inyo and San Bernardino counties so we should not see much initiation associated with this feature.