Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms to overspread the entire region tonight with temperatures holding nearly steady in the lower to middle 50s. /Tonight through Sunday night/ Cloudy and cool today as the temperature inversion a few thousand feet up just would not budge and has locked in the low clouds and the chilly air. This is an upper disturbance that will lift this cold front back to our North by this time on Sunday.
413 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 A cool spring day with temperatures generally in the low and mid 40s across the forecast area after a rather frosty morning with temperatures starting out in the 20s. Low-level moisture will be slower to work north, but models have trended towards the lower levels saturating much more quickly then previous guidance was suggesting. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for all but far northern Missouri where temperatures will be near freezing to a few degrees above.
749 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020 High pressure ridge will cross the region tonight, breaking up the clouds.
Its a mostly sunny but cool day outside across the Ozarks this afternoon with high pressure to the northeast of the area and light northeast winds.
CIGS will be on a down trend with LIFR/VLIFR becoming common through 15z then improve as warm front slowly moves into the area stalling through early afternoon.
In the wake of the front, dry weather will occur tonight through Monday as weak 500 mb high pressure builds over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the southwest.
1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Updated aviation section for 06z tafs A strong high pressure system will move east toward New England and Quebec by Sunday morning. Went slightly cooler than NBM for temps Sunday given clouds and the chance of showers, then stayed close to consensus guidance the rest of the near term.
Increasing moisture and warmer temperatures will be noted Monday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, more mid and high level clouds will be spreading in from the west with the next short wave trough. The lift with this short wave trough will have a hard time producing anything more than light rain as there will be a good dry layer to overcome underneath the cloud deck. It will also be a little warmer on Monday with south winds and more sunshine with highs expected to be in the upper 40s to the mid 50s.
This will be a warmer day with temperatures over the fresher snow pack just above freezing and temperatures over the older snowpack in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure and sunnier skies on Monday will lead to slightly warmer day on Monday which could be a good melt day across the Red River Basin.
Temperatures will warm into the 30s and 40s for highs today, then climb into the 40s and 50s for most locations Monday ahead of a cold front Monday night that will bring cooler temperatures and unsettled weather especially to the mountains much of the rest of the week. Clouds increase again somewhat overnight with flat ridging overhead.
We could get a little bit of snow or even sleet/freezing drizzle, but any amounts looks like they would be so light that it would preclude a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. General consensus remains that we will continue to moderate temperatures into mid-week, and then a fairly strong cold front comes through with potentially strong upper jet support will bring a good chance for precip and cooler temps.
227 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 High pressure ridge will cross the region tonight, breaking up the clouds. Temperature should be warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s into the lower 50s. A cold front will move through during the day on Monday.
Warm air advection has spread downstream of the developing cyclone, and a east-west oriented wing of precip will spread into central MO around 10z before pushing into NE MO and west central IL. Thermal profiles will initially support a mix of rain and snow this morning, with perhaps a little sleet as warm air moves in atop sub freezing surface air. Mostly cloudy skies with NE winds will set us up for another day of below normal temps, albeit somewhat warmer than what we're seeing this weekend.
Therefore, the high temp forecast today may be a bit tricky depending on how much clearing occurs.
Low temperatures will run in the lower to mid 30s.
117 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Aviation - Travel impacts possible Sunday night into Monday AM - Moderating temperatures for mid week - Possible storm for the end of the week - Travel impacts possible Sunday night into Monday AM A weak wave of low pressure tracks up the OH Valley Sunday Night into Monday Morning.
1130 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Eastern Canadian high pressure will shift eastward through Sunday, but keep our weather dry. The higher elevations could see several inches of snow accumulation.
A warm front will lift north of the area today continuing rain chances through this evening across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. High pressure will build in from the south behind the front, ending the chances for rain. Onshore flow will bring in a bit more moisture and warmer temperatures, with temperatures reaching into the mid 80s across the Coastal Plains this afternoon and into the 90s for Monday.
Overnight lows will dip into the low 60s region-wide. With afternoon heating, showers and a few thunderstorms should develop with the highest rain chances just north of the front, in SE AL and SW GA.
1103 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Dry and cooler weather will remain in place through Sunday under high pressure. Precipitation returns for Sunday night and Monday with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the majority of Sunday, with a gradual warm up in temperature to near calculated normals expected given rising heights in swly flow aloft. Wintry precipitation is expected for the far northeastern portion of the forecast area as well as some of the ridge zones. Due to the initially warm ground and marginal temperatures around freezing, any snow accumulation should remain limited to around an inch or less. Depending on the strength of warm advection aloft, concern exists for potential pockets of freezing rain in a few of the deeper valleys where cold air may become trapped.
Conditions will begin to clear from west to east as winds shift to a more southwesterly direction by late morning in response to a lee trough.
340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 This morning's 06Z surface analysis indicates a warm front currently extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. KLCH and KPOE reflectivity over the past several hours have shown rain showers developing in the region of ongoing isentropic ascent along and north of the surface warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease during the late afternoon and early evening hours as the warm front moves further north of the CWA. Today's warm front is expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of north-central Louisiana tonight and remain there during the day tomorrow. Otherwise, warm air advection and occasional breaks of sunshine will warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
Fog will taper off Sunday morning across northeastern Nevada making way for a dry and warmer day across the state.
Warmer than the past couple of days, but by far, the coolest we will see the rest of the week, unfortunately. With ridging taking dominance, Monday will kick off the warmer and drier days ahead with highs is the 80s.
Axis of the flat mid level ridge over central FL will sag across SOFL as a weak, fast-moving short wave trough pushes ENE across the SE CONUS this afternoon and offshore the Carolinas tonight.
On the heels of this system is a northern stream trough. A weak cold front will move through overnight with low from 25 to 30. A weak disturbance ahead of an upper trough across Nevada into southern California 12Z Monday will approach western Nebraska Monday afternoon. Rain chances increase Monday night as the main upper trough moves across Nebraska and Kansas. The highest POPS around 50 percent will be across southwest into central Nebraska.
1049 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Low pressure passing south of the area will bring a chance of showers to areas mainly to the south of Interstate 80 on Sunday.
A weather system will bring showers and cooler temperatures on Monday.
309 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Split upper-level flow remained over the CONUS with the northern low over Minnesota and the main trough located off the California coast.
Behind this weak trough, high pressure will govern our sensible elements with nickle to dime pops with temperatures averaging in the mid 80s, and overnight lows generally in the mid 70s. Little change in the overall large scale pattern with a deep anticyclone meandering from the Gulf of Mexico to across the Florida Peninsula for this forecast cycle.
1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 A cool spring day with temperatures generally in the low and mid 40s across the forecast area after a rather frosty morning with temperatures starting out in the 20s. Low-level moisture will be slower to work north, but models have trended towards the lower levels saturating much more quickly then previous guidance was suggesting. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for all but far northern Missouri where temperatures will be near freezing to a few degrees above.
We will then see rain taper off this evening into tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Also the water vapor loop indicated another upper level trough from western MT to northern SASK. An associated cold front was located over central MT and will move across the forecast area later this morning through the evening hours. A relatively cool night is expected Sun night with high pressure parking over the area. South winds are expected Mon with high pressure moving east of the area.
238 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Eastern Canadian high pressure will shift eastward through Sunday, but keep our weather dry. The higher elevations could see several inches of snow accumulation.
A strong upper tropospheric jet will accompany this trough, enhancing divergence aloft over the Mid-South. A weak cold front will move into the northern portion of the CWA after 00z, slowly ending precip from north to south tonight into Monday morning.
However, expect low-clouds where high pressure wedges down the Eastern Seaboard, and fog in the moist airmass south of the frontal boundary.
1122 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2020 19z surface analysis had low over north central WY with warm front arcing into western SD and then eastern CO. Most impact will be felt near the higher terrain where cooler temperatures present.
Despite cloudiness, it should be warmer today with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
402 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 A cold front had drifted southward through the forecast area this morning. In addition another cold front will be pushing into the TN Valley by late tonight into Monday morning. The wedge will be weakening during the day as the high pressure moves east of the New England states.
The next storm system coming in late Monday/Monday evening will be more intense, leading to greater upward vertical motion to support more organized strong to severe thunderstorms along an advancing warm front. Much of the week will be fairly quiet as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and moves out across the Great Plains.
A weather system will bring showers to the western zones and cooler temperatures on Monday.
A couple of inches is possible though locally for the favored foothill locations and some of the higher hills across east central and southeast Montana. By mid- afternoon this system will exit the area and partly cloudy skies should allow temperatures to push back into the lower 40s for afternoon highs. Monday, there may be a few rain showers over the high country due to some Pacific moisture riding the westerly mid-level flow. Otherwise, it still looks like the mildest day of the week thanks to some ridging and downslope flow with partly cloudy skies. A Pacific front will push into the region from the west late Monday night spreading rain and snow showers into the high country.
Temperatures across the Keys are slightly warmer than this time yesterday with lower 80s already being reported at both Key West and Marathon airports. 88 inches over the Lower Keys.
1047 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Surface and upper ridging will keep the area dry through the day. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 53 66 53 71 / 20 90 90 20 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 51 63 50 68 / 10 90 90 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 62 52 63 49 67 / 10 90 90 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 45 59 46 64 / 10 80 90 10 80.
Upper ridging will drive milder and continued dry conditions into Monday as much of NE Montana sees highs into the 50s. Places right along the Canadian border will see afternoon high temperatures a little bit cooler, though still well into the mid 40s.
803 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Lows in most places have once again bottomed out in the low-to-mid 60s across West Central and Southwest Florida. Temperatures will once again be flirting with records as high pressure continues to stay in control. The 12Z sounding is still underway as of this writing, however, the flow is very light through 20kft with the ridge axis shifting further east. High pressure has shifted farther to the east, leading to a light and variable flow.
We're still expecting snow at mountain passes, especially at Lost Trail and along the Divide Monday night with the passage of the cold front.
745 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 A cold front had drifted southward through the forecast area this morning. In addition another cold front will be pushing into the TN Valley by late tonight into Monday morning. The wedge will be weakening during the day as the high pressure moves east of the New England states.
The sea breeze will keep coastal communities several degrees lower with highs in the lower 80s at the beaches. Low level ridge axis extends E-W across the local Atlc waters and central FL is producing a light South flow 5-10 knots this morning.
Light rain will be the predominate precipitation type, possibly mixing with wet snow at times -- if rates are sufficient to temporarily melt-out the above freezing layer in the lowest ~3 KFT. Monday-Monday night: An upper level low will move ashore the Southern California coast tonight -- de-amplifying and lifting ENE through the 4-Corners (Mon aft/eve) into the Central Plains (Mon night). An associated lee cyclone will develop in southeast Colorado Monday afternoon, progressing eastward across Southern Kansas Monday eve/night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northwest KS and Southwest NE (mainly along/north of I-70) Monday evening -- on the N-NE periphery of the lee cyclone as the de-amplifying upper wave emerges from the Rockies onto the High Plains.
A wave of low pressure has developed and will move east along the boundary this afternoon, bringing widespread precip to the CWA. /Issued 745 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ A cold front had drifted southward through the forecast area this morning. In addition another cold front will be pushing into the TN Valley by late tonight into Monday morning. The wedge will be weakening during the day as the high pressure moves east of the New England states.
Upper level low moving down the British Columbia coast today and tonight.
This week is shaping up to be an active one with opportunities for more moisture as a progressive and amplified large scale pattern dominates the Lower 48.
Best rain chances at SSI this afternoon along with MVFR CIGS developing in the NE flow as high pressure builds north of the region. This lower deck of clouds will become IFR at SSI tonight while MVFR CIGS may push into JAX/CRG/VQQ during the overnight hours as well. In addition, a surface frontal boundary moving southward across southeast Georgia will move briefly towards I-10 this morning before lifting back as a warm front. Northeast winds will develop north of the boundary, leading to cooler temperatures from roughly the I-10 corridor northward. Overnight lows will be near 60 to the lower 60s across the interior and the mid 60s towards the coast.
531 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 High pressure will approach the region today, crest tonight, then move east Monday.
Temperatures will start out a little below normal with temperatures well below freezing east of the Cascades, and frost and patchy fog in the west side valleys. There will however be a slight chance of showers from mostly western Siskiyou county into southern Jackson and Josephine county as weak fringe dynamics from the deep closed upper low in southern California combines with the remaining moisture that brought showers the past couple of days. As we head into the "work" week the pattern changes quickly as a deep upper trough moves towards the coast, bringing a cold front through with much colder temperatures Monday morning.
Split upper-level flow remained over the CONUS with the northern low over Minnesota and the main trough located off the California coast.
Fog will taper off this morning across northern Nevada making way for a dry and warmer day across the state.
Mesoanalysis reveals plentiful moisture in the lower troposphere, particularly around 700 mb. This tongue of enhanced moisture will pivot across the area this morning as a modest surface cyclone wobbles invof southwest KS and the Panhandles region. Precipitation will persist over southern portions of the state through Monday as moisture streams into a developing cyclone over the Mid- Atlantic region.
716 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 High pressure will approach the region today, crest tonight, then move east Monday.
The low clouds will return to West Central Texas late tonight. Despite cloudiness, it should be warmer today with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
657 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Upper level trough over central MT. Upper trough continues to move toward the forecast area. Also the water vapor loop indicated another upper level trough from western MT to northern SASK. An associated cold front was located over central MT and will move across the forecast area later this morning through the evening hours. A relatively cool night is expected Sun night with high pressure parking over the area. South winds are expected Mon with high pressure moving east of the area.
Temperatures will warm into the 30s and 40s for highs today, then climb into the 40s and 50s for most locations Monday ahead of a cold front Monday night that will bring cooler temperatures and unsettled weather especially to the mountains much of the rest of the week. Snow showers, fog, and low clouds are slowly dissipating/eroding with the approach of the noon hour as transient ridging moves overhead. While yesterday's temperatures overachieved significantly in some areas, expect today's reading to be 'cooler' over most locations across Southwest and Central Montana, especially in areas where snow fell during the overnight hours. Clouds increase again somewhat overnight with flat ridging overhead.
High pressure will take over Monday resulting in a dry and warmer day.
319 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Cool temperatures this morning have given way to upper 70s to near 80 in southeast Texas and southerly Louisiana as a warm front currently north of the I-10 corridor continues to a push northward this evening.
At the surface, a warm front is slowly moving north and is laying from about Panama City Fl to Valdosta GA.
A weak disturbance ahead of an upper trough across Nevada into southern California 12Z Monday will approach western Nebraska late Monday afternoon. By evening, chances will increase across southwest NE into the cntrl Sandhills as the main upper trough moves in. The highest POPS around 50 percent will be across southwest into central Nebraska.
overnight lows should settle into the teens across north and west portions of the area, and into the lower 20s along and south of line from Bemidji, through Detroit Lakes, and into the Lisbon area.
By Monday morning, upper level flow will begin to back to the southwest as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
Within the extended there will be periods of quiet weather when high pressure is overhead, with periodic chances for system precipitation.
An upper low offshore will spread rain across the Central Coast and South Bay today into tonight.
Showers look a little slower to move into the area today ahead of a broad Plains trough, so backed off pops slightly during the afternoon to slow things down. The higher rain totals look to be closer to the AL border and southern Plateau after midnight, which may result in some minor flooding in the usual spots Monday morning.
Should see another round of sctd rain and snow showers over mainly southern parts of the CWA Monday afternoon into the evening with the snow confined to the higher mtns, where a few inches may fall.
Meanwhile in the Lower Keys, skies are practically clear of any clouds with full sunshine. Current observations show temperatures in the lower 80s and easterly winds near 10 mph.
This would limit afternoon high temperatures, so went a bit cooler than guidance with highs only in the mid 40s.
Per soundings a pretty deep warm layer aloft moves into the region, and surface temperatures generally stay at or above freezing where pcpn is expected to fall Monday night, although that said, patchy freezing rain/drizzle can't be ruled entirely out. The northeast part of the CWA would appear to have the highest chances for measurable pcpn.
Temperatures marginal for snow accumulations, but some grassy surfaces may be covered over the higher elevations.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): As of 19Z today, a warm front bisected the CWA in a north-south fashion. A return to very warm temperatures and continued above normal conditions will prevail as the persistent mid/upper ridge axis builds further north across Deep South TX.
An upper low moved overhead at daybreak, but did not pick up the stationary front to our south. The air is sinking overhead in the wake of the upper low and locking in the inversion for us once again with the thickest fog still in E TX where rain ended first. The warm front is drifting Northward and will get across I-20 during Monday.
At this time, the warm layer aloft should not cause a problem as the cloud cover will keep temperatures mild, and freezing rain is not forseen to be a problem. This will affect some of the high elevation passes, but the vast majority of the area will see 0.
137 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 High pressure will approach the region today, crest tonight, then move east Monday.
This front will become increasingly frontolytic through tonight as the low level flow becomes increasingly south/southeasterly with time.
A weak cold front will begin to move into the area this evening slowly ending the rainfall potential from north to south.
This will keep the highest rain chances across northern areas closer to the front with only isolated rain chances near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Monday in the upper 70s and low 80s.
A weather system will bring showers to the western zones and cooler temperatures with gusty winds on Monday. On Monday, an area of low pressure will move across the southwest bringing showers to our western zones. This system will bring primarily rain, expect for in the highest elevations of the Kaibab Plateau. Monday morning, snow will briefly be possible from Flagstaff northwestward to the Grand Canyon as morning lows dip down below freezing. 1-2 inches will be possible in the highest elevations of the Kaibab Plateau through the day Monday. The highest winds will be across the eastern zones in Apache and Navajo counties where gusts up to 35 mph will be likely.
At the surface, an inverted trough will develop in response to the upper jet.
With southerly flow in place and clouds scattering in the afternoon, high temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70s across the Hill Country to the lower and mid 80s elsewhere. Cloudy skies return Monday night as a shallow low level layer remains in place resulting in overnight lows in the lower 60s over most areas.