Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
232 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Current surface map places low across far northwest South Dakota with cold front/outflow boundary moving through northeast Wyoming. Initial cold front/outflow will move into western South Dakota early this morning with a period of gusty winds. Upper level ridge builds back across the area through mid week with a return to hot temperatures and potential for critical fire weather conditions. Slightly better chance of thunderstorms for the last half of the week as several ridge riding impulses move through the Northern Plains. A cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Sunday, bringing gusty northwesterly winds behind it, along with some MVFR cigs, especially from northeast WY to northwest SD.
202 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area tonight.
349 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Large-scale subsidence will dominate the region today as an upper- level ridge axis pivots overhead. At the surface/low levels, an attendant anticyclone is expected to continue slowly migrating southeastward across the CWA through the day and into the first half of tonight. Light winds associated with this anticyclone have also combined with mostly clear skies and widespread residual BL moisture to generate radiation fog, primarily in river valleys along and west of the Mississippi River. Nearly unmitigated insolation and strong mixing should allow temps to be around 5 to 10 F warmer than Saturday and in the mid-80s to near 90 F. Surface dewpoints could refreshingly fall into the low-60s F, possibly upper 50s F, in east-central/ southeastern MO and southwesterly IL from the mixing as well.
302 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Dry and less humid weather will continue again today with highs reaching the lower 80s.
Ridging has now settled south of the area in response to a cold front pushing through the southeast.
1129 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Favorable aviation conditions continue through the period as high pressure remains firmly in place over the region. This along with some modification of the airmass will boost afternoon highs into the low 80s, with cooler readings along the Great Lakes).
High pressure will move further to the southeast Today, as a cold front dips into SE GA.
1157 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge on the Rockies and plains and a trough in New England. The ridge builds toward the upper Great Lakes tonight. Mid-level ridging extending from central Plains high pressure continues to move southeastward of Upper Michigan by Sunday morning. While northwesterly flow continues aloft, the low-levels will see backing winds to south-southeasterly throughout Sunday mid-day. Expect cooler temperatures near southeastern U. locations along Lake Michigan from slightly cooler onshore winds. The warm front passes over the U. Southwesterly winds increase Sunday evening as the low level wind speeds are maximized. The trailing cold front creates a secondary round of potentially stronger thunderstorms from west to east over the U.
Additionally, high pressure moving in from the north will clear any clouds by tomorrow morning. The day tomorrow will feature sunny skies under high pressure.
The higher of these values look to be near the Red River.
235 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area tonight.
Highs are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s across the area.
Sunday evening moisture transport increases ahead of an approaching cold front. We will have to track the environment throughout the day, but the severe weather risk for tonight looks on the lower end for most.
Other than some orographic aided diurnal driven isolated shower and thunderstorm development in vicinity of and across Cumberland Plateau Region this afternoon, dry conditions should prevail due to ridging influences surface and aloft through Monday afternoon.
403 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Forecast Highlights: - A cold front swings through Monday, possibly bringing the only real chance of precipitation this week.
The showers in the western waters located in the area of cyclonic confluence may persist through the afternoon, so the Lower Keys will be the most likely to see any notable rainfall today if the slow eastward motion of the activity continues. From synopsis, a high pressure cell centered over the central Atlantic Ocean and extending west to Florida will weaken today, with slackening southerly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters.
Forecast Highlights: - A cold front swings through Monday, possibly bringing the only real chance of precipitation this week.
Although the positioning of the upper lvl ridge is not expected to change much, mid lvl hghts/thicknesses will increase further Monday afternoon w/850 hpa temps approaching 32C-33C.
A cold front will move across the area today, primarily bringing a notable decrease in dew points but also slightly cooler temperatures.
High pressure builds today bringing much warmer temperatures Monday. Cooler and less humid for the end of the week. A transition is underway as high pressure builds from the west. Patchy fog improves shortly after sunrise and low clouds will scatter and clear slowly from the northwest as northerly flow ahead of the ridge pulls a drier and cooler air mass across. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms southeast of Charleston diminishes during the evening as the ridge shifts further east. Temperatures today will be pleasant in the lower to mid 80s across the lowlands and in the 70s across the mountains. Patchy fog is possible again tonight, although it will be limited by subsidence drying around the building ridge. Foggy start to the morning Monday, but dry with high pressure in control.
540 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Current surface map places low across far northwest South Dakota with cold front/outflow boundary moving through northeast Wyoming. Initial cold front/outflow will move into western South Dakota early this morning with a period of gusty winds. Upper level ridge builds back across the area through mid week with a return to hot temperatures and potential for critical fire weather conditions. Slightly better chance of thunderstorms for the last half of the week as several ridge riding impulses move through the Northern Plains. A cold front is moving through the area this morning.
High pressure builds over the CWA beginning Monday, bringing warmer and drier conditions to North- central and Southwest Montana and the start of a warming trend. As a result, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than the previous days, with a breezy northwest flow at the surface beginning mid afternoon. Most other locations will remain cooler and dry. Instead, the return of building high pressure is in the horizon, leading to warmer and drier conditions beginning Monday.
331 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather, continuing seasonably hot conditions inland with mild conditions near the coast due to the marine layer.
Cooler temps, drier weather with breezy winds will occur today as a cool front passes through the region. A ridge of high pressure will build and strengthen across the Great Basin and Intermountain west this week. High temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s in valleys of western Montana and 100 degree weather across the lower valleys of west central Idaho. Mid level monsoonal moisture rotating around the 4 corners high pressure ridge is limited and will struggle to make it further north than Lemhi county and southwest Montana.
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Large-scale subsidence will dominate the region today as an upper- level ridge axis pivots overhead. At the surface/low levels, an attendant anticyclone is expected to continue slowly migrating southeastward across the CWA through the day and into the first half of tonight. Light winds associated with this anticyclone have also combined with mostly clear skies and widespread residual BL moisture to generate radiation fog, primarily in river valleys along and west of the Mississippi River.
Today, upper high, currently located to our northwest, becomes centered over the northern Panhandles. Monday, with the ridge still overhead, hot temperatures continue with values building to perhaps 110 in Palo Duro Canyon. As the evening arrives, a cold front should push south and, with the upper ridge becoming centered to our west, disturbance in the now northwesterly flow aloft may time well with the arrival of this front.
903 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure is pushing any remaining humid air toward the Maryland border and will give us a refreshingly pleasant Sunday.
For today into Monday, expect to see a warming trend ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.
High pressure brings dry weather and much warmer temperatures Monday. Cooler and less humid for the end of the week. A transition is underway as high pressure builds from the west. Patchy fog improves shortly after sunrise and low clouds will scatter and clear slowly from the northwest as northerly flow ahead of the ridge pulls a drier and cooler air mass across. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms southeast of Charleston diminishes during the evening as the ridge shifts further east. Temperatures today will be pleasant in the lower to mid 80s across the lowlands and in the 70s across the mountains. Patchy fog is possible again tonight, although it will be limited by subsidence drying around the building ridge. Foggy start to the morning Monday, but dry with high pressure in control.
Heat will be the main story for the next 2 days with near record highs possible from Tucson into the lower deserts Monday (with a wary eye on today). 25 inches, which is the low side of average for moisture depth deeper into the season, but not low for mid July. The strength of the ridge doesn't help either, with mid levels tending to be on the warm side not conducive for strong convection. Ensembles support a weakening ridge by mid week, with broader moisture support in a long but narrow fetch of deeper moisture from the south.
616 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Building upper ridging in concert with increasing southerly low- level flow will support seasonably hot temperatures today in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Another hot day is expected Monday ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. This cold frontal zone approaching from the north should be a focus for hit-or-miss isolated thunderstorm chances spreading south across the region late Monday afternoon through Monday night. Despite strong convergence, the cold frontal zone is fairly shallow with little upper support, so not entirely convinced lift will be deep enough to initiate surface-based storms.
High pressure is over the Great Lakes, providing clear skies early today, and with light winds and a shallow moisture profile, we've been lowering the dewpoint gradually through forming dew out there. ERVIN Today's highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but in general,the lower 80s over Illinois, and mid 80s over Iowa and Missouri will be forecast, with dewpoints holding in the mid 60s for the most part. Tonight, this southerly flow will keep our dewpoints from radiating out efficiently, and thus, our morning lows will be warmer, in the mid 60s to around 70. Maybe a few showers along a cold front but for now will keep pops low.
Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Heading into Monday, the backside of the high pressure system will be centered over the FA causing light winds to shift SW. High temps will be a bit warmer in the lower 90s.
718 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Aviation --Warmer today, but not humid-- High pressure is overhead early this morning, but will drift east later today. We're still seeing the drier air from Ontario flow into the cwa, but that will change later today as the high moves east and a south to southwest flow develops. Highs today will climb into the lower to mid 80s, but dewpoints will remain in the lower 50s. --Showers/storms possible Monday, but moisture is an issue-- A northern stream short wave will push a trough across Lake Superior and northern Lower tonight.
Otherwise, clear skies dominate much of the OH Valley thanks to building high pressure. a degree or two cooler than normal. Skies will clear tonight with surface dew point depressions by dawn around 2F and very light winds at the surface and in the low levels. The upper-level pattern to start the week features a slightly flattened ridge across the western two-thirds of the CONUS with a slightly zonal yet progressive pattern stretching across the US/Canadian border.
417 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 (Issued 417 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022) Today and Tonight: The high will start shifting to our southeast today, but is a little slower to exit than previously forecast. Increasing southerly winds will usher warmer air and slightly higher dewpoints back into southern WI by the afternoon.
600 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Dry and less humid weather will continue again today with highs reaching the lower 80s. Warmer temperatures will return Monday with highs well into the 80s. Highs will be in the lower 80s with dry weather during the middle of this upcoming week. Subsidence in the vicinity of the high will bring sunny skies today with light winds and highs reaching near 80 this afternoon.
/issued 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ The cold front continues to move south early this morning, extending currently from near Cleveland, MS, to Tupelo, MS, to Lawrenceburg, TN, as of 3 AM. Taking a look at the larger view, the 599+ dam subtropical ridge has retreated westward and is currently centered near the Four Corners. A trough has set up over the eastern CONUS with relatively deep northerly flow advecting slightly cooler and drier air into the Mid-South. As the trough axis swings across the Southeast today, part of it will break away, eventually organizing into a cut-off upper low near the mouth of the MS River. After 5 days of wretched heat, high temperatures in the lower 90s will seem bearable, especially when accompanied by heat indices below 100 degrees.
Upper level troughing will be over the eastern US through much of the week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening however with the trough rotating through the region expect a few lingering cells into the late evening and early overnight hours. Fog will also be possible toward daybreak as the cells exit the area and the low levels have a chance to stabilize.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure remains in control with no real change in the forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs generally in the 100s and slightly cooler temperatures along the coast.
247 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
150 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For this afternoon, an upper trough axis will approach the Northern Rockies from the west. This trough will bring weak large- scale ascent that will facilitate scattered showers and thunderstorms over south central Montana and north central Wyoming this afternoon then over much of south central-southeast Montana and north central Wyoming this evening. So, a few storms could be severe in the highlighted area with quarter-size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Tonight, the upper trough will move eastward out of Montana and an upper ridge will move in from the west.
Otherwise, majority of the area will see dry and warm conditions this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and storms may redevelop along a cold front during the afternoon and evening.
(Tomorrow through Sunday) Hotter weather will overspread the area Monday ahead of a weak cold front, with afternoon temperatures reaching near or above the century mark in many places.
We'll have more synoptic forcing with the 500mb trough as it approaches the area with a wave of positive vorticity advection ahead of it that moves in for Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures across the region are 5 to 12 degrees cooler than yesterday. On Monday, a warm upper ridge builds over us and high temperatures will soar into the 80s to low 90s.
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Latest surface analysis reveals 1021mb high pressure stretched across the Great Lakes while 10/12Z upper air analysis shows an expansive 598dm 5H area of high pressure over the SW and central CONUS with ridging extending over the OH Valley. GOES-16 satellite depicts mostly clear skies over southern Indiana and central KY while regional observations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s as of 10/18Z. High pressure will retreat eastward allowing for return flow. The medium range portion of the forecast begins with a broad subtropical mid-level high anchored over the Southwest US and anomalous ridge axis extending towards the Pacific Northwest into Canada. At the same time, a weak surface cold front will advance from the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley which will support afternoon showers and storms chances mainly in south-central Kentucky.
159 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Dry and less humid weather will continue again today with highs reaching the lower 80s. Warmer temperatures will return Monday with highs well into the 80s. Highs will be in the lower 80s with dry weather during the middle of this upcoming week. Subsidence in the vicinity of the high will bring sunny skies today with light winds and highs reaching near 80 this afternoon.
A low and mid level theta-e ridge axis extends from Interstate 25 eastward across the central and southern Nebraska Panhandle where surface based CAPE ranges from 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with effective bulk shear values from 25 to 35 knots. A cold front tonight will bring a cooler and more stable airmass across our forecast area, thus few if any showers or thunderstorms are anticipated in the afternoon and evening, mainly near the Colorado state line.
1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Building upper ridging in concert with increasing southerly low- level flow will support seasonably hot temperatures today in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Another hot day is expected Monday ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. This cold frontal zone approaching from the north should be a focus for hit-or-miss isolated thunderstorm chances spreading south across the region late Monday afternoon through Monday night. Despite strong convergence, the cold frontal zone is fairly shallow with little upper support, so not entirely convinced lift will be deep enough to initiate surface-based storms.
The lingering cloud cover has kept temps in the low 80s, although some clearing late this afternoon may allow temps in some spots to approach 90F. With slightly cooler/drier air spreading into the area in the wake of the frontal passage, temps overnight look to fall mainly into the upper 60s/near 70F.
Unsettled weather will return through the midweek period as a series of cold fronts enter the area.
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Large-scale subsidence will dominate the region today as an upper- level ridge axis pivots overhead. At the surface/low levels, an attendant anticyclone is expected to continue slowly migrating southeastward across the CWA through the day and into the first half of tonight. Light winds associated with this anticyclone have also combined with mostly clear skies and widespread residual BL moisture to generate radiation fog, primarily in river valleys along and west of the Mississippi River.
High pressure brings dry weather tonight and Monday. Another front mid week followed by high pressure. A high pressure system will build into the region and bring an end to any remaining showers later this afternoon. This high will then provide dry weather and light/calm winds overnight, allowing for cool temperatures. The high will continue to provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather on Monday, with high temperatures warming in comparison to this afternoon.
Visible satellite highlights the lack of cloud cover across a large portion of the forecast area, and also shows that the shallow cloud streamers are beginning to deepen north of the Lower and Marquesas Keys. A few showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm have developed within these streamers, and portions of the Lower Keys may see a shower or two over the next few hours. The Florida Keys are sitting on the western periphery of a ridge axis extending from the western North Atlantic, which will keep winds light and generally from the southeast to south for the next few days.
205 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Currently the combined OK/TX Panhandles are falling under weak flow aloft from a broad area of high pressure. An upper level trough will traverse the northern CONUS and southern Canada today and tonight, and is progged to be into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow night.
120 PM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather this coming week, continuing hot conditions inland with mild conditions near the coast due to the marine layer.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Quiet day so far across the mid state, with cloud cover still hanging around on the Plateau thanks to the upper trough still off to our southeast. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible in the far east/southeast this afternoon as the trough continues to progress to the south and east of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 60s across the mid state tonight and temps will hit the low to mid 90s Monday, but dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s, so it will be slightly cooler than what we felt last week.
214 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area into Monday.
Hennig (This afternoon through Monday night) Radar is showing isolated storms are starting in the Davis Mountains however the influence of the encroaching upper level high is being felt with less area coverage that should remain farther west. The moves even closer tomorrow, increasing subsidence enough that temperatures edge up into the lower portion of Heat Advisory criteria.
RAH (Issued 417 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022) Today and Tonight: The high will start shifting to our southeast today, but is a little slower to exit than previously forecast. Increasing southerly winds will usher warmer air and slightly higher dewpoints back into southern WI by the afternoon.
Much of this also appears elevated at the current time and is along the edge of the cap, but the western edge may be rooted in the boundary layer and is closer to the position of the surface cold front.
1116 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Current surface map places low across far northwest South Dakota with cold front/outflow boundary moving through northeast Wyoming. Initial cold front/outflow will move into western South Dakota early this morning with a period of gusty winds. Upper level ridge builds back across the area through mid week with a return to hot temperatures and potential for critical fire weather conditions. Slightly better chance of thunderstorms for the last half of the week as several ridge riding impulses move through the Northern Plains.
148 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure will remain control of our weather through Monday.
310 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Following last evening's cold frontal passage, the Midsouth experienced a break from the recent extended hot streak. Today's 1 PM temps were cooler than yesterday by up to 5 degrees over east AR and west TN.
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
Upper level trough axis has shifted southeast of the area with ridge building back into the area. Temperatures in the eastern Ozarks will dip into the lower to middle 60s tonight with upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
137 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Aviation --Warmer today, but not humid-- High pressure is overhead early this morning, but will drift east later today. We're still seeing the drier air from Ontario flow into the cwa, but that will change later today as the high moves east and a south to southwest flow develops. Highs today will climb into the lower to mid 80s, but dewpoints will remain in the lower 50s. --Showers/storms possible Monday, but moisture is an issue-- A northern stream short wave will push a trough across Lake Superior and northern Lower tonight.
Very hot conditions again expected Monday as high pressure aloft continues.