Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge has moved east of the area with approaching trough over the Gulf states. Similar conditions expected on Wedensday with weakening upper trough nudging closer from the west. Mean layer 1000-500 mb SW steering flow of 15-20 kts on and the trough axis across south Ga both favor the potential for morning showers and tstorms across our inland Ga and western Suwanee River Valley zones. Rainfall will decrease in coverage as diurnal instability decreases but will continue with a chance of nocturnal showers/isolated tstorms as the low level trough axis and deepest mean layer moisture plume edge southward across NE Florida.
127 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will be in control of our weather for most of this week, resulting in cool nights and mild to warm afternoons.
536 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure remains in place through Wednesday night.
1142 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be common this afternoon under a chilly upper level low. The unseasonably cold upper trough (-28C to -30C) centered over Vancouver Island will produce an environment favorable for widespread convective showers over the mountains this afternoon. If skies remain clear through the night, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s in places like Deer Park, Republic, Metaline Falls, and Prichard. /GKoch 18Z TAFS: Showers will increase between 18z-20z as we quickly reach our convective temperature under a cold upper trough.
650 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure remains in place through Wednesday night.
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Upper level trough continues to lift northeast across the northern/central plains this afternoon. Bigger story this forecast cycle will be the hot weather courtesy of building upper ridge over the Southern Plains.
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 A warm front will be situated near the area tonight and into Wednesday.
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure remains in place through Wednesday night.
In the low-levels, a surface boundary defined primarily by a dewpoint discontinuity, is bisecting central NC. The front will retreat back to the north as a warm front late tonight/early Wednesday. Model guidance indicates seasonably strong insolation within the axis of moist and moderately to strongly unstable air over the southern counties, south of the sfc front where dewpoints are expected to rise into the lower 70s, will support isolated to scattered convection development this afternoon and into the early evening. Very mild temperatures overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Convective allowing and deterministic models alike show a good/high chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as the baggy trough and associated high PWS 2. Lows Wednesday night similar to tonight, in the low/mid 70s.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 200 pm overlaid with model streamline analysis continues to depict a regional middle and upper level anticyclone centered over the Western Atlantic near 30 N 78 W. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. As of 200 pm, Skies are partly cloudy over the Lower Keys and Mostly Sunny across the Middle and Upper Keys and all surrounding waters. Radar has detected the tops of the showers over the Lower Keys along a broken cloud line have only reached 15-20 kft has dry air has moved over the top of that, only allowing for stationary showers to deliver amounts of up to a quarter of an inch to fall from the Torch Keys to Sugarloaf Key.
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will build over SE Texas during the mid and late week period.
420 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 A warm front will move north and through the region Wednesday.
Dry conditions and relatively cooler/drier air will return to end the work week with more seasonal temperatures. High pressure will provide for a dry weekend with 90 degree readings returning late in the weekend. Models continue to have a tough time nailing down timing for cold frontal passage and associated chance for storms.
240 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure rotating through eastern South Dakota this afternoon sparking thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. The upper low will pull east soon enough to allow for convection to be gone before daybreak Wednesday.
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 An area of low pressure, centered near KABR this afternoon, will continue to pull north and east.
To the north of this low, there is still a lot of cloud cover and rain cooled air. However, because of this, some of the high resolution models still indicate a few stronger storms over far southeast ND into portions of west central MN.
1104 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages.
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our southwest will move slowly back northeast and into our vicinity Wednesday.
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Stubborn low pressure continues to slowly drift over the Canadian Maritimes. It will gradually slip off to the northeast through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Upper low drifts farther E Wed. The core of the cooler air aloft also will be farther E. meaning warmer daytime temps and less diurnal cloud cover. Influences of the upper low diminish even further Wed night.
It looks like ridging aloft seems to be taking hold of storm dvlpmnt and shutting it down. Broad upper level ridge will shift over the area tonight and Tuesday.
152 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 As high pressure continues to push east of the region today, a warm front will lift across the area by Wednesday.
/issued 1148 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ Unauthorized convection which developed earlier this morning over SW AR along a NW to SE 700mb theta-e axis just W of the N-S weak upper trough axis along the MS River has finally begun to weaken late this morning. upper ridging has begun to build NE across TX which will expand E into extreme SW AR/Wrn LA later today. The Srn OK convection appears to be tied to a weak elevated theta-e ridge that should weaken with time as the convection enters McCurtain County and adjacent SW AR. Have also removed pops for much of E TX as subsidence beneath the ridge should continue to increase through the day.
Wet weather through the mid-week as low clouds/fog/drizzle across much of the Northland this morning gives way to rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight as a low pressure system moves across the upper Mississippi Valley. As the low approaches northeast winds will increase, with gusts to 20- 30 mph expected at the head of the lake late today/tonight. Light rain will linger into Wednesday as the low is slow to exit. Generally slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the short- term period, especially along the lake shore.
Warm front is forecast to reach the vicinity of the MS River by 00Z and with surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s, expect MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg and possibily as high as 2500 J/kg across northeast IA.
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Latest surface analysis showed ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to central Gulf of Mexico.
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Deformation and wrap around precipitation across central and eastern North Dakota associated with the low across northeast South Dakota has been well assimilated into the 14-16 UTC rapidly updating suites, and will utilize their solutions for precipitation through the evening. The high resolution short term models brought this batch north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the James River Valley. Looks like the James River Valley has the highest chances.
A cold front is continuing to move across north central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. Scattered showers will redevelop this afternoon under the influence of the cold upper low pressure system, but these should be small, brief rain producers, and not much more. Some colder locations, such as Polebridge and Olney will flirt with freezing, cooling into the lower 30s.
At 1830Z, cold front was from near KCTB to near KPIH. Rather deep easterly flow will become established behind the cold front on Wed. bringing cooler air with limited mixing. Persistent upper low over the Pac coast will finally open and move across the northern Rockies this weekend.
303 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure remains in place through Wednesday night.
Moisture streaming northeast along a cold front, located just northwest of the CWA, has resulted in scattered showers across west central and northwest portions of the forecast area this morning. As a trough swings east into the Great Lakes Region today, it'll push this front into at least the northern half of the area through the day. With the front currently progged to only make it to the I-20 corridor, the drier air associated with it only looks to make in into areas along the Highway 82 corridor. Then for tonight and Monday night, lows will fall into the low and middle 70s.
100 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 250 PM CDT Scattered showers with brief heavy downpours will continue east this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Following the cold frontal passage expect a mostly cloudy and breezy afternoon and early evening with isolated showers tapering west to east. KMD 250 PM CDT Sunday will be cooler with a slight chance of light rain showers. However, the vorticity associated with the back side of the upper level trough could cause a few showers to form. High pressure then builds over the region Sunday night before shifting over the Ohio valley Monday night.
Mid level trough extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the southern Plains will generally move eastward through the short term period and support a weak cold front as it moves southeastward. By Monday, mid level high pressure slides underneath the mid level trough across the Gulf of Mexico and effectively stalls the surface cold front near the I-10 corridor. High temperatures each day will reach the lower to mid 90s.
A ridge of high pressure and increasing offshore flow will likely bring another round of hot temperatures to the region later in the work week.
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 An upper level ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the area tonight and stall just south of the forecast area Monday. This will allow warmer temperatures and moisture to return headed into the weekend. An upper level trough moving from the Great Lakes region east across the Northeastern states will drive a cold front into the Carolinas/Georgia later tonight. Short wave troughs approaching this afternoon/evening but vorticity appears channeled and mainly north of the region. Noticeably drier by Monday as pressure ridge builds south from the Mid Atlantic/Northeastern States.
422 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cool start across the area under influence of high pressure. Models have a strong consensus to development of pressure trough downstream of the Buffalo ridge, suggesting winds should see a bit of ridge enhancement by late night along with slowly rising temps.
108 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Warm and humid conditions, along with the threat for showers and thunderstorms, will persist until a cold front moves through the area tonight. High pressure will then settle into the Ohio Valley for the beginning of the week, bringing dry and cooler weather. Line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre frontal trough are just about to the I-71 corridor. The actual cold front is just now moving into northwest Indiana. Sunday morning the cold front will clear the rest of the CWA allowing drier air to filter into the area. Also during the day Sunday the upper level trough axis will push into the area with moderate CAA moving in.
Clearing skies, light winds, and much cooler air filtering southward into western Kansas will allow temperatures to drop well below normal tonight. Although the flow aloft will remain less than favorable, thunderstorms are likely to develop late Monday afternoon in the vicinity of a lee side trough across eastern Colorado.
405 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today ahead of an approaching cold front which will bring cooler and drier air to the region. High pressure will dominate the weather until mid-week. Upper trough will rotate across the Great Lakes today with associated cold front pushing from the eastern Ohio Valley at midday through to the Atlantic coast by early evening. Dry cool air will filter into the region Monday as high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley.
211 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 At this writing, the surface cold front has not quite made its passage across the entire FA.
High pressure will then regain control and result in drier, more comfortable conditions through the first half of the week. No updates needed this morning as the forecast looks on track with latest trends and timing the exit of the crossing cold front. The trough axis will push through Sunday night.
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure located north of the Great Lakes will depart northeast across Ontario today, pulling a secondary cold front south across the area this evening.
The front will continue to make slow southward progress today, and convection will generally remain confined along and south of the boundary through this afternoon with temperatures expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s from north to south, and pops are tapered to reflect the higher chances along and south of I-20 invof the front.
A cold front over Ohio will move through the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into the evening.
531 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will push through the region today, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity.
The pattern early this morning features a sharp trough over much of the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface cold front sits just north of the Ohio River. We'll be dry tonight and Monday as high pressure holds at the surface and aloft. Highs Monday should be a degree or two warmer than today, putting most spots right around 80.
Weak low pressure trof rotating around departing southern Canada low pressure, and low level cold air surge, will bring a period of lower clouds to southern WI this morning. Otherwise, cyclonic flow flattens late today into tonight, as upper level jet axis shifts east of the area, and thermal trof slides off to the east as well. Clouds and cooler air in place will hold daytime temps peaking in the low to mid 70s, with 50s tngt.
An upstream trough will advance into the PAC NW tomorrow evening with the surface front pushing through east Idaho by Monday morning.
346 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure develops across Srn Alberta today and tonight. South winds increase to 10 to 15 mph this morning and a thermal ridge will build east into Wrn Nebraska.
Drier conditions are expected by midweek but thunderstorms will remain possible across the higher terrain of Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
132 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure will move east into the Maritimes tonight into Sunday. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night and cross the area Monday morning.
A trough aloft will continue to produce unusually cool mid-level temperatures for this time of year in addition to weak upward motion.
1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Cold air advection in the wake of last night's cold front has kept temperatures quite cool today with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s and even upper 60s in spots. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to the lowest readings we've seen in a couple of months with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s. Large-scale ridging building into the central U.
However as an upper trof and associated cdfnt moves towards the TN valley overnight, pcpn may redevelop arnd 10z.
Passage of the surface cold front will be between 5 and 9 pm, with rain chances ending from west to east in that time frame.
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The main low to midlevel cold front progressively pushed across the cwa between 06-07z this morning. As for the sensible weather or precipitation forecast, not much of change is anticipated because large wavelength to upper level trough.
High pressure will remain over the forecast area tonight. A building upper level western ridge will expand eastward towards the western plains on Sunday. The upper level ridge continues to build and expand eastward across the plains, keeping the warming trend going into Monday. High temperatures should reach into the lower 90s across western and much of central ND.
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 An approaching cold front is expected to move into n GA this afternoon. At the surface a ridge of high pressure will nose into the state bringing slightly drier air into the CWA. however overnight lows will be a little cooler than normal due to the slightly drier air.
A strong upper level low was located just off the coast of western Canada this morning. This low will move east through Monday, pushing a dry cold front through the region tonight.
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Cooler and less humid air will continue to filter into the region today.
134 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region overnight. Lows tonight will be in the 60s with afternoon highs on Sunday in the lower to middle 70s. Broken line of convection along pre-frontal trough will continue to work east through the forecast area into early evening. Models have remained consistent with secondary and tertiary short waves driving through mean trough Sunday with wrap around moisture clipping our far north. cooler and less humid.
An upper level ridge over the region will provide northeast Montana with warm and dry weather conditions for the remaining portion of the weekend. A cold front will push through on Monday night. Given the decent trough approaching which should provide upper level support, feel that at least isolated if not widely scattered showers may develop and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Drier and cooler weather will move into the region today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then settle across the Ohio Valley by Monday.
1132 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Trough passage yesterday has caused winds to shift to the west through northwest today. Mostly though, a few cumulus clouds will remain over the higher terrain with temperatures right around normal. For Sunday, a very broad area of high pressure will remain over the southern portions of the U. while low pressure remains off the Pacific Coast. By Monday, a deep area of low pressure will be skirting the U. /Canadian border while a weaker trough will be approaching the area. This trough will keep southwesterly flow in the picture allowing moisture to increase across the CWA and bring another round of showers and storms.
134 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a cold front through mid morning. Building high pressure will bring dry and less humid weather through mid week. Kept in a mention of thunder with the pre-frontal trough and surface front, but with the best lift streaking northward and nighttime passage, mention was in the isolated category. The trough axis will push through Sunday night.
120 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Aviation A cold front will continue to slide east across the CWA this evening bringing an end to the storms. Showery cooler and breezy weather will continue into Sunday. Then a quieter period is expected for Sunday night through Monday night as high pressure arrives.
649 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 An upper level ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the area tonight and stall just south of the forecast area Monday. This will allow warmer temperatures and moisture to return headed into the weekend. An upper level trough moving from the Great Lakes region east across the Northeastern states will drive a cold front into the Carolinas/Georgia later tonight. Short wave troughs approaching this afternoon/evening but vorticity appears channeled and mainly north of the region. Noticeably drier by Monday as pressure ridge builds south from the Mid Atlantic/Northeastern States.
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Convection across S/SE TX along and S of a cold front will continue to stream newd during the overnight hours and into Sunday.
A cold front will move through from the west late Sunday night. Cooler high pressure will build from the north through midweek leading to drier and less humid conditions.
Low level ridge axis across south Florida will produce a light westerly flow, turning onshore in a sea breeze along the coast this afternoon. The sea breeze will be delayed long enough to produce hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s even at the coast. Deep moisture will be lacking but best moisture convergence typically exists on the north side of a ridge and models show slightly higher precipitable water values south of Orlando. So have drawn 30 to 40 PoPs across the south half, focusing on the interior portions of the Treasure coast counties where sea/lake breeze collisions should produce the highest coverage this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb ridging will remain in place over the Gulf of Mex and the Gulf coast region with more weakness in the ridge axis evident further inland over Texas and north central Mexico where the deeper moisture values reside. The 500 mb ridge axis over the Gulf of Mexico will start to build westwards later tonight into Sunday which will then shift the better moisture values further west allowing for drier weather to prevail into Monday. Further to the south and east of the ongoing convection the 00z BRO sounding shows much drier air in place closer to the coastline which is closer to the 500 mb ridge axis.
521 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The cold front that raced through the area early yesterday morning was stationary over the Rio Grande to San Antonio to Austin area this morning. To the south, a modest trough axis will bring SLY flow across West Texas as it slowly translates eastward.
410 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a cold front through mid morning. Building high pressure will bring dry and less humid weather through mid week. The trough axis will push through Sunday night.
By early evening, clouds will have moved east of the area and the center of high pressure should be neat central Kansas allowing for light winds overnight and through the morning. Another pleasant day is in store for tomorrow with dry conditions and highs only slightly warmer than today, in the lower 80s. Return flow Sunday night will bump lows up into the lower 60s in north central Kansas and upper 50s elsewhere. Warmup on Monday with ridging aloft and increasing southerly flow will give temps a bump up into the mid 80s across the CWA.
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure located north of the Great Lakes will depart northeast across Ontario today, pulling a secondary cold front south across the area this evening.
641 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Drier and cooler weather will move into the region today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then settle across the Ohio Valley by Monday.
339 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Weak upper level ridging will occur across Colorado through tonight.