Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
201 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be the passage of a strong cold front through tonight, bringing well below normal temperatures to the region over the next couple of days. Currently, long wave upper level trough diving southeast across central Canada, with a cutoff mid level low over Iowa and an upper level ridge over the western CONUS. The aforementioned upper trough will drive a strong cold front through the Northern Plains today into this evening. Sub freezing temperatures to around 30F are forecast for northern areas, with mid to upper 30s farther south. Strong high pressure will build south into the region Thursday night, centered over central/eastern North Dakota.
The ridge of high pressure will slowly retrograde westward, allowing for easterly winds to develop across western Montana overnight and Thursday. This will also allow for cooler temperatures compared to the past couple days, but will remain slightly above normal for this time of the year.
152 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move northeast and away from the area Thursday. In its place, an area of high pressure will drift east from the Ohio valley, providing several warm dry days with pleasant afternoon temperatures. By the weekend, a strong, although mainly dry cold front, will push through the area bringing what will likely be the first frost/freeze of the fall season to the mountains and areas west of the Blue Ridge. Low pressure (Ian remnant) was still located along the DelMarVa coast Wednesday. As high pressure builds into the area from the Ohio Valley, expect winds to subside with light and variable conditions expected Thursday. highs ranging from the 60s mountains to the mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1158 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 ----------------------------- Synoptic Features of Interest ----------------------------- [1] An upper level low. [2] An upper level low. [3] A broad upper level trough in central Canada will amplify and extend southward into the central/eastern CONUS (Thu-Thu night). ----------------------------- Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence/height rises -- in the wake of the upper low progressing eastward from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest -- will act to suppress cloud cover over most of the area today, except (perhaps) south of I-70. where upper level cloud cover may linger into the afternoon -- depending on the evolution of the stalled upper level low over the Desert Southwest -- and the coverage/distribution of associated convection in NM.
1136 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The upper low was located over southeast SD with its attendant trough axis into the central High Plains. Drier north-northwest flow aloft prevailed between the trough and stout upper ridge in the western CONUS. The model consensus progs the upper low and trough to progress east-southeast into the Midwest through Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area through Thursday, with tranquil weather prevailing.
Cold front continues to push south into the Northern Plains this afternoon. The Arctic cold frontal boundary is just north of the forecast area. The well advertised Arctic cold frontal boundary finally passes through the forecast area today and into the evening. Much colder air will filter into the region behind this frontal boundary, which may lead to widespread freezing temperatures Wednesday morning, especially in the northern half of the forecast area. Lows tonight will probably be within a few degrees of freezing with areas in the northern half of the state more likely to see a freeze. For one, trailing high pressure won't quite have settled in, so breezy winds should persist tonight.
250 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 A cold front will move southwestward over the area this evening. Those northeasterly winds will bring in cooler air, with high temperatures Thursday 10-20 degrees cooler than today's high temperatures. An upper air disturbance is also associated with this cold front and will move southeastward over Montana late tonight into Thursday.
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 As of 10:15 AM CDT, temperatures remain in the lower 70s across the Four State Region with dew points in the 50s maintaining pleasant Fall conditions. Water vapor imagery and 500MB analysis highlights some dry pre-frontal troughing shifting east across the area at this time. /16/ (Wednesday through Thursday) As a large upper level ridge drifts eastward over the eastern CONUS, zonal flow aloft will hold conditions steady through Wednesday, followed by the remaining upper level trough comprising the Omega block which defined the weather pattern early this week. With an axis over the Chicagoland region and western Great Lakes, said trough will not be responsible for bringing any precip to the ArkLaTex (and we're just as shocked as anyone by that), while northeasterly flow rebuilds aloft, steering a dry front into the Four State Region.
945 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Sent an update this morning to provide more detail regarding the expected cold front and its associated light precipitation later tonight and into early Thursday. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge backs to the west today turning the flow aloft over Montana to the NW. This will allow a cold front to move into the area during the day today from the north. There will be a chance of showers tonight behind the cold front as colder air moves in. Highs on Thursday will be 15 to 20 degrees colder in most areas as high pressure moves in and clear skies during the day.
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Today through Thursday) A developing cut off upper level low across New Mexico and Arizona today will move southwest into Sonora and Baja California Thursday, while weak downstream ridging develops across South Central Texas. Dry low levels and the influence of the weak ridge will continue dry conditions across the region.
(This evening through Thursday) The closed low over southern New Mexico has begun to slowly lift north, and will continue doing so through the overnight with a slight shift westward as well. The ongoing activity is associated with the best lift out ahead of the circulation and elevated arm of baroclinic instability that will gradually shift west and north through the afternoon and evening as the upper low moves into central New Mexico. The highest rainfall totals will continue to be along the state line, though as mentioned earlier, a little farther south than previously thought.
200 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the slow moving upper trough axis that was responsible for our weather the past few days slowing pushing through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Further upstream, upper ridging persists across much of the western US with our forecast area on the eastern periphery of this ridge. Temperatures will be 10-20F cooler than today, with highs struggling to reach the low 50s across much of the western and northwestern South Dakota plains.
317 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Discussion/Marine - Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday Models are in relative agreement on tracking the cold front south southeastward through the CWA during the day on Thursday. which is where the SPC HREF 24 hr QPF LPMM is the highest.
An upper level low will slide from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region during the short term period with a weak upper level disturbance over New Mexico. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 70s across western zones to low 80s across eastern zones.
By tomorrow night, temperatures will remain slightly milder in the lower 60s after a slightly warmer day.
High pressure centered over the Middle MS Valley is bringing light northeast to east winds; keeping the region mostly dry.
/Issued 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022/ /Through Thursday/ Yet another pleasant and warm October day is expected across North and Central Texas as weak ridging aloft continues to influence the region. Despite the surface wind shift, ridging aloft will result in another day of above normal warmth with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Best model consensus shows that most of the precipitation will be along and ahead of the cold front, but a few lingering post frontal showers could result in a rain/snow mix by early Thursday morning along our northern international border. Of potentially more impact is the drop in low temperatures on the back side of this cold front.
107 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
426 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will move east of the area tonight.
A weak cold front has been gradually making its way through NE KS and W MO. Behind the front, clouds break up, and winds turn northwesterly with some brief gusts as cooler air from the north slowly works its way in. Thursday night, a large high pressure system works its southward from central Canada bringing with it much cooler temperatures.
1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Today through Thursday) This AM, persistent broad E Conus surface ridging will continue through today. A cold front extends from MN SSWWD into the TX Panhandle. Also, we will see some scattered cirrus in the SRN part of the state around the base of the E Conus upper low. This upper low should weaken and push NEWD into the Atlantic later today.
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Current surface analysis and satellite imagery reveals high pressure and sunny skies over the OH Valley this afternoon while to the west, an area of low pressure is spinning across central IA with an associated cold front and band of clouds/precip extending south and southwest through the mid MS Valley and into the southern Plains. As we move through tonight and into Thursday, expect the parent upper low to drop southeast out of IA and through the OH Valley, becoming an open wave as it does so.
124 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Aviation The high pressure ridge will continue in control of the wx pattern for one more day today and bring partly cloudy skies and unseasonably warm conditions with high temps reaching well into the 70s. A strong cold front dropping down from the nnw will bring clouds and showers Thursday.
Dry with above normal temperatures expected through at least Thursday with high pressure just to our west. A broad area of low pressure develops over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico late week, and with easterly flow, moisture may push back westward for slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and southeast California, mainly this weekend.
Quiet conditions expected under the continued presence of high pressure. Wind will remain mostly light and variable except for brief periods of gusty afternoon wind across the higher elevations.
High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend with the weather not changing much from day to day.
(Tonight) Yet another uneventful night in store for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure continues to keep dry conditions in place over the Valley. This lowers fog potential during the early morning hours, but could still see some patchy dense fog in and around river valleys and agricultural areas. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed, with temps dropping to the low to mid 40s under clear skies and light winds.
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 On track to be slightly warmer than average today with highs in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s down south. Water vapor imagery showing us in northerly flow aloft with an upper low spinning off to the northeast. Tomorrow a strong cold front comes through and will lead to a large temperature gradient from north to south across the CWA. Unlike a typical cold front rain and winds will lag behind the front with winds expected to pick up more during the afternoon.
256 PM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Persistent high pressure will allow pleasant conditions and above- average temperatures to continue through the end of the work week. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern through the end of the work week, allowing dry and warm conditions to persist.
636 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The closed low over southern New Mexico has begun to slowly lift north, and will continue doing so through the overnight with a slight shift westward as well. The ongoing activity is associated with the best lift out ahead of the circulation and elevated arm of baroclinic instability that will gradually shift west and north through the afternoon and evening as the upper low moves into central New Mexico. The highest rainfall totals will continue to be along the state line, though as mentioned earlier, a little farther south than previously thought.
403 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the slow moving upper trough axis that was responsible for our weather the past few days slowing pushing through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Further upstream, upper ridging persists across much of the western US with our forecast area on the eastern periphery of this ridge. Temperatures will be 10-20F cooler than today, with highs struggling to reach the low 50s across much of the western and northwestern South Dakota plains.
757 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Aviation - Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday Models are in relative agreement on tracking the cold front south southeastward through the CWA during the day on Thursday. which is where the SPC HREF 24 hr QPF LPMM is the highest.
938 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will move east of the area tonight.
635 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) Weak ridging over TX is keeping skies clear to partly cloudy this afternoon. Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue through tomorrow night with highs ranging from the low 80s to the low 90s. Tonight, expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but with some weak low level moisture return over the next 24-36 hours and increasing high clouds streaming in from the WSW it will be a couple degrees warmer for Thursday night.
(Now through Thursday) Weak ridging aloft continues to weaken and a dry zonal flow pattern aloft will generally prevail over our forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Weak surface ridging will also extend across much of the southern and southeastern states through Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the week and into the weekend.
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Stacked high pressure was bringing another nice day with very dry air, full sunshine, and temps in the 70s. Surface winds will become south southwest on Thursday as a cold front approaches. The cold front will move through late Thursday night with no significant wx thanks to a continued very dry airmass.
A fall chill is in the air with temperatures already in the low 70s and upper 60s this evening. Current temperature trends, clear conditions, and hi-res model guidance all point to even cooler overnight lows.
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The dry cold front continues to dive south southeast across the state, currently almost along the South Dakota border. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be the passage of a strong cold front through tonight, bringing well below normal temperatures to the region over the next couple of days. Currently, long wave upper level trough diving southeast across central Canada, with a cutoff mid level low over Iowa and an upper level ridge over the western CONUS. The aforementioned upper trough will drive a strong cold front through the Northern Plains today into this evening. Sub freezing temperatures to around 30F are forecast for northern areas, with mid to upper 30s farther south. Strong high pressure will build south into the region Thursday night, centered over central/eastern North Dakota.
Surface observations are showing nearly calm winds with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to upper 50s. By tomorrow night, temperatures will remain slightly milder in the lower 60s after a slightly warmer day.
Another dry evening and overnight tonight with clear skies and high pressure over the region keeping pleasantly cool fall temps and lower humidity in place. A closed upper low spins off the mid-Atlantic states while a zonal pattern remains over the Florida peninsula. On the surface, broad high pressure settles in over the southeast U.
A broad, quasi- stationary upper low is located over NM, with a fetch of upper- level moisture emanating downstream across the Mid MS Valley. This will result in a few high clouds overnight, quite the change from the past several days! At the surface, a large area of high pressure is anchored over the eastern CONUS, resulting in light winds across the region.
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area through Thursday, with tranquil weather prevailing.
729 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will move east of the area tonight.
Currently - A high pressure cell over the eastern United States is in control of Keys weather this evening resulting in light northeast to east surface breezes. Short Term Update - Ridging over the eastern United States will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Ridging over the eastern United States will maintain light gentle northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Current surface analysis and satellite imagery reveals high pressure and sunny skies over the OH Valley this afternoon while to the west, an area of low pressure is spinning across central IA with an associated cold front and band of clouds/precip extending south and southwest through the mid MS Valley and into the southern Plains. As we move through tonight and into Thursday, expect the parent upper low to drop southeast out of IA and through the OH Valley, becoming an open wave as it does so.
Discussion: For this evening and overnight, ridging surface and aloft will keep conditions dry and clear. For Thursday, an upper level trough will move across the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. Due to continued ridging across the Tennessee valley into the Gulf Coast states, this system will be moisture starved.
A weak cold front has been gradually making its way through NE KS and W MO. Behind the front, clouds break up, and winds turn northwesterly with some brief gusts as cooler air from the north slowly works its way in. Thursday night, a large high pressure system works its southward from central Canada bringing with it much cooler temperatures. Highs Friday are only expected to reach the low to mid 60s south of the MO River with areas north reach the high 50s.
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level ridge will remain over the area through Thursday, with tranquil weather prevailing.
A ridge of high pressure over the Southeastern United States will dominate our weather through the end of the week and promote relatively calm and dry weather conditions. The high pressure and scant moisture content at the surface and a loft will yield below normal pops (20%) through Friday. However, temperatures and humidity will slowly increase to near normal as the northeasterly winds advect a moist air mass into the region, resulting in temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points ranging from the low to mid 70s. Late Friday night, the high pressure over the Southeastern United States will shift eastward as a cold front impinges on its northwestern flank. As the high shifts, moisture from a stationary front from Cuba and tropical moisture from the Caribbean lifts into the region.
Forecast Highlights: -A cooler air mass is set to arrive by Friday. That ridge will surge southward behind a cold front as an amplified mid-level trough works into Great Lakes region. Cold air advection will make for a much cooler day on Friday. Current forecast high temperatures range from the mid and upper 50s north of I-70 to the low 60s south of I-35.
However, with a weak upper low remaining anchored in the Desert Southwest, there is an outside chance for precip across extreme southwest Kansas by early Friday morning as an upper level trough swinging southeast through the Great Lakes helps usher a weak cold front southward across western Kansas. Despite a subtle boundary beginning to push southward through western Kansas later this afternoon, temperatures are expected to be similar to yesterday with afternoon highs ranging from the 70s(F) to the lower/mid 80s(F). With slightly cooler air filtering into western Kansas behind a weak cold front, expect lows generally down into the 40s(F) tonight.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be over the area through Tonight, with dry air mass remaining in place.
This blend spits out skin cracking dewpoints across the area in the low 40s, resulting in widespread RH values hovering in the mid 20s and isolated pockets in central Georgia in the low 20s.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level low situated in the Desert Southwest, including across much of New Mexico. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Northern High Plains south-southeast into the high plains of eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas. An upper level low will slide from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region during the short term period with a weak upper level disturbance over New Mexico. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 70s across western zones to low 80s across eastern zones.
(Now through Friday) A fairly zonal flow aloft prevails over the area through the period while a large and broad upper trof evolves over interior eastern states. Highs will be in the lower 80s well inland to the mid 80s elsewhere. Lows night range from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the immediate coast, then highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
High pressure will shift east today as an upper trough moves in from the northwest. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will range from the lower 70s to near 80, which is right around seasonal normals. The low-level flow begins to shift from north to westerly today but dry air will still remain in place this afternoon which will result in another day of low RH values. Overnight lows warmer tonight due to westerly flow with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.
255 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Main challenge for the short term will be the timing and the speed of the incoming cold front tonight.
Mid-level ridging does increase downstream from the Baja low as a nrn stream trof will attempt to push a front swd to near the nrn CWFA late Fri PM.
(Today through Friday) This AM, persistent but weakening E Conus surface ridging will be present through today. The low should push SEWD toward N KY today into tonight and drag the cold front SE toward the NW fringes of AL. We should get another shot of cooler air into C AL with the airmass behind the front having a 1030 plus mb ridge.
For tonight into Friday, a cold front will move southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
(Today through Friday) A cut off upper level low across New Mexico and Arizona early this morning will move southwest into Sonora and Baja California through the day. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s continue today and Friday, with low temperatures modifying slightly warmer Friday morning given the increased cloud cover.
1033 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Tonight) Yet another uneventful night in store for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure continues to keep dry conditions in place over the Valley. This lowers fog potential during the early morning hours, but could still see some patchy dense fog in and around river valleys and agricultural areas. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed, with temps dropping to the low to mid 40s under clear skies and light winds.