Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018 The latest water vapor images revealed a large, complex upper low/trough over the western CONUS, with multiple circulation centers. An initially warm lower-troposphere will give way to cooling as the thermal ridge moves southeast. Else- where, a mix of rain and snow is expected, with some concern for a little freezing rain and sleet given the low-level warm layer. This will be something to watch for if freezing rain becomes the more dominant precipitation type.
330 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A vigorous upper level trough will move from the Great Basin across Colorado with a closed low developing over sern CO/nern NM by early this evening. The low will then move quickly into the srn plains by late tonight. Overall will see decent mid level ascent as the trough moves across later today and this evening with favorable lapse rates. By afternoon, enough daytime heating and destabilization combining with cold advection aloft may allow a few light snow showers to spread from the higher terrain back into the I-25 Corridor.
Behind that wave, a weak ridge will build into the region, though it will be a "dirty" ridge with periods of mid and high cloud cover streaming through at times. Temperatures today will be ~10 degrees below normal behind the departing cold front, and will warm a few degrees Monday but remain cooler than normal.
631 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure today into Monday. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected.
Temperatures will be cooler across the north. Confluent mid/upper level flow will support high pressure through northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. As upper troughing pushes out of the western U.
620 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A cold front in the forecast area early this morning will stall just south of the area later today. The front will become a warm front ahead of approaching low pressure Monday.
High pressure will provide sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures today. Low pressure passing well south of Wisconsin later tonight and Monday will bring an increasing northeast flow to the area. This will mark the beginning of a cooler period weather for a few days.
Relatively cooler temps were noted north of this feature, temps in the 60s to mid-70s F, with a 15 to 20 F dewpoint gradient across the state. Aloft, objective analysis shows ridging across the central CONUS, which will continue to shift east through the remainder of today into tomorrow. A significant vort lobe is progged to eject from the large trough positioned across the western CONUS. while dynamic forcing will be impressive aloft, guidance continues showing a weaker wind field in the lower levels and modest mid- level lapse rates.
520 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A cold front in the forecast area early this morning will stall just south of the area later today. The front will become a warm front ahead of approaching low pressure Monday.
308 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure today into Monday. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected.
Upper level low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring scattered light showers to Western Washington through Monday.
313 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
437 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A broad area of high pressure is building into the region from the NW early this morning. High pressure will continue into the first part of the overnight as well, with some of the deeper eastern valleys expected to drop off into the mid and upper 30s early on. Moisture will continue to increase throughout the day Monday as the low pressure system continues its eastward track into the TN valley and western KY by the afternoon.
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 East to southeast flow will take over the region today as a vigorous low pressure system moves through. The lower max temperature for today will also have an affect the potential for severe weather over the region. It appears the best chance for the severe hail will be with the passage of this 500mb cold pool and its attendant vorticity max along with plenty of mid level forcing as the low passes. The timing of the upper low's passage looks to be late evening into the overnight hours. By Monday, the low pressure system will have passed and the wind flow will turn around to the north once again.
420 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will bring a dry and pleasant day to the region. Very dry air in the low levels will allow the fog to mix out rapidly after daybreak. Some energy in the form of an upper low will eject east early this week out of the large western North America low.
1040 PM PDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Drier and warmer Sunday into Monday.
634 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will bring a dry and pleasant day to the region. Very dry air in the low levels will allow the fog to mix out rapidly after daybreak. Some energy in the form of an upper low will eject east early this week out of the large western North America low.
Main focus of the extended is weather associated with an upper trough that continues to sit and spin over the intermountain west, ejecting a wave into the plains Sunday night. Thus, precipitation type will be mainly determined by temperatures in the lowest few hundred feet, which are also hugging the rain/snow threshold. The active pattern continues as the longwave pattern shift overhead, setting back up with ridging over the central CONUS around mid week.
1117 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Persistent western CONUS trough will finally shift east, splitting in the process, with the strongest impulse expected on it's southern periphery into the central/southern plains. Quiet weather will then prevail mid-week as another round of deep layer ridging commences, supporting dry weather and warmer temps. Western CONUS upper trough is in the process of ejecting into the central CONUS, with WAA to its NE over the region. Any precip that will develop will be in the form of liquid, which would be freezing rain where temps fall back to below 32. Light rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible with any precip that develops in this FGEN zone. A couple inches looks possible over scentral SD through Monday as the upper trough shifts east and precip chances migrate east.
331 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Quiet weather will continue through tonight although the passage of a backdoor cold front from Ontario this morning will bring an increase in clouds this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures will be cooler across the north today with highs generally in the lower 30s nw and north central with a chilly ne flow off Lake Superior. Confluent mid/upper level flow will support high pressure through northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. As upper troughing pushes out of the western U.
404 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will begin to build into the region this morning.
338 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A cold front in the forecast area early this morning will stall just south of the area later today. The front will become a warm front ahead of approaching low pressure Monday.
402 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 We have issued a winter weather advisory for snow and light freezing drizzle for this afternoon, tonight and Monday morning. Consensus among models focus the highest snow amounts across the west and north central, from Dickinson northeast to Minot where 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with an isolated 6 inch amount possible. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today than previously thought, which will keep most of the precipitation as snow, although some rain will mix in at first across the south. Some patchy freezing drizzle is possible southwest today, then mainly snow tonight and Monday.
132 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will begin to build into the region tonight.
deep troughing across the Western United States continued to migrate eastward allowing for disturbances to be kicked out into central Texas where development occurred last night and has now moved east into interior southeast Texas. A dry front then advances across the area Monday as low pressure tracks across the plains and thru the mid-Mississippi valley bringing a significant lowering of dew points on a westerly flow.
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure today into Monday. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains.
645 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 The area of low pressure that brought scattered showers and storms to the forecast area will continue offshore early Sunday, allowing cool high pressure to build into the region.
637 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes today with a cold front crossing the region this evening. High pressure will then ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks eastward between the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday and Monday night.
Ridging surface and aloft will produce a dry and mild day across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians Today. This ridge will move east of the area for tonight with increasing isentropic lift producing scattered showers. For Monday, models show a strong upper trough moving east into the lower Ohio Valley with associated upper jet of 120kts moving into Kentucky. The main question is how far east and north will warm frontal boundary lift.
The Florida Keys will remain under the western edge of a high pressure, which will push away today and tomorrow to the east.
Despite NAMNest suggesting widespread dense fog across the northern two-thirds of the CWA, think the lowest visbys will mainly be confined to areas along/west of the I-55 corridor where winds are calm and temp/dewpoint spreads are 0-1F. Once the morning fog burns off, mostly sunny and mild conditions will prevail today with afternoon highs in the lower 50s. With high pressure anchored over Manitoba/Quebec continuing to provide a dry E/NE flow, think there will be a sharp cut-off to the northern edge of the precip area.
The more significant threat for strong to severe storms still looks to come on Sunday afternoon and evening as the deep upper trough out west swings out across the Plains over the next 24 hours.
Climatologically, given the current situation - warm humid southerly flow over now warmer ground temperatures - it's difficult to observe prolonged very low ceilings and similar visibility which was something we dealt with in late February and a bit into early March following cold/damp 'northers. With surface temperatures/humidity acting more April- like (in warm advection flow) and the green/warmer top soils, expect ceilings more in the high LIFR/IFR range, generally above minimums which were forecast and somewhat inexplicably forecast by numerical models.
340 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 An upper level trough is currently moving through the Desert Southwest and will be tracking across the southern Rockies today. MAV guidance brings temps up well into the lower 80s for many locations. Scattered light showers will pass across the forecast area Monday morning through early afternoon as a prefrontal trough swings through.
312 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will deliver a fairly quiet and cold start to the week. Still watching a coastal low that will develop midweek, but current indications are that this low will remain well to our south and be a non-factor for us in the North Country. Cold and dry weather will continue through the early part of the week with high pressure building over much of the Northeast CONUS.
Tonight, warmer and more moist air starts to be advected in. With temperatures in the critical threshold of mid 30s there could be mix of rain, freezing drizzle and snow Sunday afternoon and evening. It appears west central North Dakota, locations generally between Bismarck and Dickinson, will see the highest accumulations.
425 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure and associated surface front move east across the region Monday. the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon.
With light winds forecast to continue in the low levels through the morning and additional moisture spreading north into the area this afternoon, expect to see pretty solid cloud cover again through the day which could impact expected highs if no breaks develop by afternoon. Sunshine looks rather limited until mid week when less clouds and warmer temperatures return. The next chance of precipitation then moves into the region tonight as an upper trough swings into the southern plains with models showing compact cutoff low developing and tracking along the OK/KS border.
348 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 An unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place across the region through early this week as high pressure slowly builds to the south of the area.
334 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 332 AM CDT As the center of high pressure settles over the Middle Mississippi Valley this morning, clear skies and light winds have developed overnight. Temperatures should drop into the middle 20s by daybreak, with a few isolated locations possibly dipping into the lower 20s, while the urbanized areas of the Chicago Metro remain a bit warmer. With upper ridging building across the region today, temperatures should be able to climb in to the 50s today. However, a light pressure gradient and strong differential heating between the cold lake and warmer land should be sufficient to generate a lake breeze. So, while much of the CWA sees temps climbing into the 50s, the lakefront may only reach the lower to middle 40s, before dropping back into the upper 30s as the lake breeze pushes inland.
651 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will begin to build into the region this morning.
113 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure centered to the southwest will bring a continuation of SKC conditions through Sunday. Light and variable winds tonight will become west-northwest around this high on Sunday and then veer to the north-northeast by evening as back door cold front moves into the area as low pressure drops across the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario. The central Great Lakes will be influenced by a high amplitude upper level ridge and its remnants in the coming days. Evolution of pattern late this weekend is one for the ridge to break down as fresh jet energy becomes reintroduced in the southern stream just south of Arizona. Thus, a pattern of deep column stability and surface ridging is favored. Models show surface ridging in control with full sunshine.
/issued 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms already going up along a cold front that extends from Clovis to Tulia to Wheeler, particularly on the eastern end of that line in an area that got quite a bit warmer than forecast. The combination of temperatures of 95-100 and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s is resulting in a band of surface-based CAPE of around 1500 J/kg and weak inhibition that these storms are developing in. The cold front is expected to undergo frontolysis with a return to a general southerly low level flow across the area. Strengthening of the mid- and upper-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will veer winds aloft, resulting in west-to-northwesterly flow above the boundary-layer while southerly flow persists beneath.
Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain near Lake Okeechobee into tomorrow, with a generally weak S/SW wind flow persisting across the region. Highs will reach the low 90s for most locations before convection and cloud cover increases into mid to late afternoon.
High pressure will hold over the eastern gulf waters through the period with rather benign conditions.
447 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over south central NM to shift to central AZ next 24 hrs.
722 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 GOES Visible this afternoon showing mostly sunny skies across the area thanks to high pressure building in from the Northern Plains. Cooler and a bit less humid today as well with temperatures at 1 pm in the mid-70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This was within a broader/longwave trough carved out across the Dakotas/Upper Mississippi River valley/Great Lakes regions. This trough along with mid-level frontogenesis, close proximity to right entrance region of 300mb jet and 850-500mb MUCAPE in the 500-1100J/kg range, will combine to produce scattered showers and storms over the area -mainly in the afternoon during peak heating.
633 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Diurnal CU field is increasing north of I-94 this afternoon as an upper low continues to spin north of Minnesota. Elsewhere, it's sunny and in the lower 80s. An area of troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will remain in place as ridging shifts back to the desert southwest.
18Z surface data has the main cold front from southeast lower Michigan into central Kansas with high pressure in the Plains. Decreasing humidity and quiet conditions will be seen late this afternoon and tonight as high pressure moves through the area.
Quiet weather with high pressure continues through the short term forecast period. With a ridge continuing to build in, temperatures should continue to increase tomorrow (especially west).
Regional satellite show thicker cloud cover extending through a large portion of Missouri into Illinois along and south of a cold front. Surface analysis shows much of the activity from this morning and that which develop this afternoon was aided by a pre-frontal trough. The cold front still lags back to the northwest, extending through northern Missouri and into west-central Illinois. The cold front continues southward with the greatest potential for active weather running along the southern fringes of the forecast area, roughly in a line from Crawford Co. This will bring drier, cooler air to the area through late Tuesday evening.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight, especially over the higher elevations.
An upper level trough will move northeast across central and northern Utah. In the wake of this feature, a ridge will build in over the region through the remainder of the week.
Weak upper ridge currently breaking down, as weak upper trough approaches. This weak upper trough/wave expected to swing across the area later tonight, and that will bring a weak frontal boundary down into our north by early Tue. Behind this passing upper wave on Wed, there is a bit of very weak ridging and that may bring a brief period of ML/UL drying early in the day, but that will be very short-lived. Secondary jet max looks to spin up SFC/LL low ahead of a trough axis late Fri night, and those lows will pass northwest/north of the mid-state through Sun. The weak ridge will break down and be replaced by a weak front starting tomorrow.
Mid levels will have reinforcing dry air on northwest flow aloft, so unlikely to see clouds develop there even with the low level jet nosing in. To start the extended, deep upper level low pressure sits over southeastern Canada with upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 An upper ridge will suppress widespread convection through tonight. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
That one feature starting to hint out, is a small weakness in the upper-level ridge of high pressure which has taken control across the region.
533 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Early afternoon VIS imagery showed CU building over the higher terrain. Showers will increase in coverage west of the Laramie Range Tuesday morning, becoming more numerous with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon as copious moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching upper trough from the northwest.
All-in-all ridging is apparent throughout the vertical tropospheric profile with notably poor lapse rates between 950-800mb and 600-400mb. Given the prominence of the aforementioned ridging and subsidence with additional Saharan Air Layer (SAL) upstream of the Keys, no changes to the forecast are warranted this evening.
However, convection is currently occurring across Southern Missouri ahead of a slow moving cold front. A longwave trough is deepening over the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest setting up Northwest flow across the Midsouth. Most of the area should warm another degree or two this afternoon resulting in highs in the low to middle 90s. A rare midsummer cold front is pushing through Missouri and is expected to stall tonight just before reaching the Midsouth. Outflow from ongoing showers and thunderstorms across Northern portions of the Midsouth may eventually become the effective front by midweek, masking any trace of the original cold front.
634 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Notably cooler and less humid air will begin to infiltrate the region in the wake of a cold frontal system dropping southeast into the Ohio Valley. Highs Tuesday through the end of the week will be in the lower to middle 80s.
703 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 GOES Visible this afternoon showing mostly sunny skies across the area thanks to high pressure building in from the Northern Plains. Cooler and a bit less humid today as well with temperatures at 1 pm in the mid-70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This was within a broader/longwave trough carved out across the Dakotas/Upper Mississippi River valley/Great Lakes regions. This trough along with mid-level frontogenesis, close proximity to right entrance region of 300mb jet and 850-500mb MUCAPE in the 500-1100J/kg range, will combine to produce scattered showers and storms over the area -mainly in the afternoon during peak heating.
A cold front and trough of low pressure will approach the area by midweek and linger over the region into the weekend. Then, as a large upper trough and surface front move into the region, and a period of unsettled weather is expected from mid week into the weekend.
The upper level low that has been bringing mountain thunderstorms to the area will be pushing out of central California into Nevada.
918 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, as a cold front pushes south across our area. Cold front has pushed approximately as far south as I-72/Danville this evening, and should be south of I-70 by midnight. The cold front is making some headway into the northwest corner of the CWA now, with dew points dropping from the low 70s to the mid 60s between Galesburg and Moline. With the drier air arriving, lows in the lower 60s are expected over much of central Illinois. While temperatures reach the mid 80s on Tuesday, the lower dew points will make it feel much more comfortable. Longer range models continue to build the upper ridge just west of the Rockies late this week, keeping more of a northwest flow feeding the Midwest states.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): In the wake of Hanna, the lower Texas coast remains nestled in weak lower pressure between a ridge of high pressure across the Desert SW and another ridge of high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.