Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There appears to be a wind shift slowly migrating from west to east into the inverted trough. In the meantime, some showers and thunder will affect our western zones as southern streams trough axis slides over Montana.
309 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure through Tuesday with increasing temperatures. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through this time period. Light winds and clear skies will make for chilly night with temperatures dropping into the 30s in the northern mountains to the warmer 50s in the west. The upper level pattern takes deepening low pressure systems from the intermountain west northeastward into the far northern Great Lakes. From a sensible weather standpoint, the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians will remain under the influences of upper level ridging with 15-20C 850mb temperatures.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this morning. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s and will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s for morning lows. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 60s. An upper level trough currently across the west coast will start to spread east on Tuesday, remaining well west of the area. The trough will help to start to nudge the ridge to the east. Temperatures will still warm into the lower to middle 80s and no rain will occur as the ridge will remain in control.
212 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure rebuilds across the region today and tonight. Mid morning MSAS showing the cold front just sw of the fa. High pressure to the nw progged to nudge the boundary farther sw into the mts by late afternoon. Meanwhile, ridge aloft shifts E from Gulf Coast toward the SE coast. and generally in the low to mid 60s Thu morning. A weak cold front from the N is fcst by the models to settle into the region S. VFR (SKC) conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure settles over the area tonight then off the coast Tuesday.
347 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 As upper ridge builds into region, will see warm southerly winds persist across the forecast area through Tuesday. Given recent trends, going forecast is probably not warm enough and trended twd the warmer guidance thru mid week. next chance for precip is very late Tues night into Wed as an upper trof rotates thru the region.
Clear skies and calm winds expected tonight as we are under the influence of a mid/upper level ridge. Tomorrow looks like another beautiful day and even warmer temperatures with highs around 10 degrees above normal. Only question about tomorrow's forecast is whether any afternoon showers and storms can develop across the highest peaks of our eastern mountains. The warm and dry pattern will continue for most of the work week ahead with an upper-level subtropical ridge of high pressure along the SE United States in control.
226 PM PDT Mon May 15 2017 Slow moving low pressure will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly over Mono, Mineral and Southern Lyon counties. Another area of low pressure will bring gusty winds Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance for light rain and snow.
323 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing a deep longwave trof over the western CONUS with a closed off low/potent vort max currently digging southward through southern CA heading toward Baja.
247 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 While it's hot and more humid today, temperatures tomorrow will likely be several degrees cooler. This appears to be mainly due to cooler temperatures aloft, despite similar depth of mixing. Cross sections show what appears to be an elevated cold front and model QPF seems to be tied that feature.
Best most unstable capes (MU) remain south and west of the area as of mid afternoon, and should remain there through this evening as warm front remains well south of the area. Low level jet is expected to increase and warm front should start pushing northward later tonight. Elevated convection is expected to break out in response to the low level jet. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Tuesday morning across northern Wisconsin as warm front pushes northward into northern Wisconsin.
700 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through the week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. This boundary separates an air mass to the north with dewpoints in the low-mid 40s, from an air mass south of the boundary where dewpoints in the 55-60 degree range. Where the drier air currently exists, overnight temperatures in the low-mid 50s are probable. As a weak high pressure at the surface shifts offshore early, expect sunny skies and continued warming temperatures. The GFS suggests that a persistent upper level trough over the Rockies/Inter-Mountain west will become progressive over the weekend, with strengthening SW flow aloft over the Carolinas and a cold front approaching from the west early Monday. This scenario would argue for cooler temperatures and increased chances for convection.
443 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will cross the area from the west Tuesday then move off into the western Atlantic for the rest of the week. A backdoor cold front is slicing across central and southeast North Carolina, just southwest of our area. Well behind the front dewpoints are in the lower 40s across the northern Outer Banks. With subsidence from the high, not expecting any isolated convection along the sea breeze.
327 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Looks like the warm and dry forecast will continue through this short term period characterized by high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft.
Surface analysis reveals persistent high pressure over Tennessee that is starting to push off to the east. Meanwhile, a northwest to southeast oriented warm front associated with an area of weak low pressure over southern Minnesota is starting to lift northward into southern Indiana and Ohio. In addition to the warmer temperatures, low level moisture has began to advect into the region, with dewpoints already in the low 60s across southwestern portions of the CWA. Upper level ridge axis will move over the region tonight and tomorrow. Very warm air associated with the upper level ridge will make for a hot and sunny day tomorrow, with a few areas (like SDF) getting close to record highs for the day.
336 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Ridging aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Mid-South this afternoon, providing sunny skies, relatively light winds, and warm temperatures. The pattern will shift over the next few days as the deep trough over the Desert Southwest moves slowly east. As this wave slowly approaches, winds aloft will become southwesterly with the ridge axis shifting east of the region.
333 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Large high pressure will remain over the region through the rest of the work week. A cold front is forecast to gradually sweep across the Carolinas and Georgia this weekend. High pressure will prevail with a backdoor cold front stalling north of the area. At the mid level, the axis of a H5 L/W ridge will generally run from the Gulf of Mexico NE across the eastern Carolinas.
High pressure ridge will build East of the region this period.
145 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through mid week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. Visible satellite data indicated scattered cumulus developing just to our NW along the ridges into the foothills of southwestern VA and northwestern NC. Highs are on target to reach the lower to mid 80s. On Tuesday the upper ridge moves more directly over the southeast. This will continue to bring temperatures up with highs in the low to upper 80s, once again NE to SW. The GFS suggests that a persistent upper level trough over the Rockies/Inter-Mountain west will become progressive over the weekend, with strengthening SW flow aloft over the Carolinas and a cold front approaching from the west early Monday. This scenario would argue for cooler temperatures and increased chances for convection.
356 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Isolated lingering showers will affect the North Country this evening before diminishing in drier northwest flow from high pressure building in from the west.
Weak high pressure will build across the region behind this system for this afternoon and tonight with skies clearing through the afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, temperatures should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s in most areas, although the typical cool spots in central Wisconsin could see lows into the low/mid 40s. The cold front will be slow to push southward as it becomes oriented nearly parallel to the mid-level flow.
Temperatures should reach the mid 80s over the forecast area today, although with the drier dew points and a decent southwest breeze, it should feel a bit cooler. Longer range continues to feature a breakdown of the western ridge by mid week, with zonal flow settling southward from Canada. Complicating factor with this scenario is with the developing tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.
Deeper moisture and better instability will exist over the waters, therefore have the highest pops over the waters and generally a slight chc along coastal counties for tonight and continuing Wed and Wed night. This may lead to highs being a few degrees warmer than today.
254 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure will bring much above average temperatures through the weekend, with records possible through Wednesday.
Highs in the lower 70s are expected with low humidity followed by lows tonight in the lower 50s.
148 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Upper troughing firmly in place from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. 00z sounding at CWPL in northern Ontario showed increasing h7-h5 moisture beneath the upper trough in wake of the sfc front so plan is to see increasing showers around daybreak sliding across mainly northwest to central Upper Michigan.
256 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows stationary front near the Black Hills, with high pressure centered over northeast ND. Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure centered over eastern AZ, with ridging to the north across the intermountain west. Could see a stronger storm or two over western areas in the evening, then possibly a strong to severe storm later tonight to the east of the Black Hills, near the nose of the low level jet. Cold front over the Pacific NW will move quickly across the Rockies tonight and into western portions of the area Wednesday morning before stalling out over western SD during the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s over the Black Hills to near 95 over south central SD.
633 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper level trough will gradually shift eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight.
Given the recent bias to be a bit too cool for highs, did increase forecast temperatures towards the warmer edge of guidance available as of 10 UTC for today and Wednesday. Thus, a few 90s are forecast now south central on Wednesday in the warm sector of the low that will propagate across southern Canada. Temperatures today should be in some cases about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. An upper level wave will enter the west tonight and bring with it a cold front.
Upper air analysis showed a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region while high pressure was centered over the Desert Southwest. This will allow better low level moisture with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s to move northward across western Kansas today. A strong veering profile through the low-mid levels of the atmosphere will yield 0-6km deep layer shear values around 40 knots or so. Warmer temperatures are in store for today as the low/mid level warm advection continues. Overnight lows tonight will be warmer as well.
250 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern plains and upper Midwest.
This will allow for temperatures this afternoon to be a little warmer compared to yesterday with forecast highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s common.
An upper level trough will continue to move east across the Great Lakes through Wednesday afternoon.
326 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will cross southeast through the area tonight, wash out between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River on Wednesday, and lift northeast of the region Wednesday night.
With the warmer temps, it will be easier to reach the convective temp by this aftn, thus expect more cumulus.
242 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Weak high pressure will slide south of the commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. A deep upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
225 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A large upper-level ridge analyzed at 596 DM over central Arizona remains firmly in control of the weather over the western CONUS this Tuesday afternoon. Along the northern fringes of this ridge, some mid-level moisture and a bit of faster flow aloft has resulted in convective development over the higher terrain of the Great Basin and middle Colorado River valley this afternoon. Dry lightning will be a low, but not non-existent, threat this afternoon as one or two of the strongest cells may grow high enough above the freezing level to form graupel. Slightly faster flow aloft will aid any convection that develops in the higher terrain north of I-70, and PoPs have been adjusted slightly upward in this package.
613 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight as a weather disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday.
A Lee-trough over central Montana this afternoon extends north into Alberta. A cold front will slice southeast through the area early Wednesday and combined with strong CAA, will increase winds quickly across the area.
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be multiple chances for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north of the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight. a cold front pushes into northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon.
249 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure remained over the eastern Ozarks where lower humidity was present. Main emphasis will be with Tropical Storm Cindy and its moisture coming up from the south along with a strong cold front approaching from the north late this week.
Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern Colorado tonight.
349 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper level trough will gradually shift eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight.
High pressure moving overhead today, and as this feature moves east, we see return flow and a 40kt low level jet developing in south central South Dakota. As the day progresses and elevated convection moves east and weakens we are set up with a low pressure center over southern Canada and a front extending to the south across the forecast area. Most of the turning in the low levels is shallow and flow is mostly westerly so anticipate any storms that develop to move rapidly eastwards. Its important to note the duality of this frontal system as the GFS depicts more of a dry line with a cooler airmass in southeast flow at 850mb, while to the west we see warmer temperatures with favorable mixing in northwest flow and drier air, with the cold advection lagging about 100km to the northwest.
555 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A drier and cooler air mass will move into the area tonight. Another weak trough will move across the area Wednesday and will be accompanied by scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across central and northern areas.
Looking at radar this morning, one can already see the influence of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three as the rain shield on the northern side of the large system is beginning to move into the far southeastern counties.
VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period as high pressure remains over the area while a boundary remains to the southeast of TN.
1222 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A strong ridge will remain centered over AZ and NM today through Wednesday. A very minor disturbance will travel over the top of the ridge today and affect northern CO and UT.
High pressure passing through the area tonight will bring quiet weather and gradually clearing skies. Lows should drop into the lower to middle 50s. Most of Wednesday looks dry, as the high slides to the east southeast of the area.
Temperatures are still on the cool side, but should still reach the lower 70s. Will maintain some low pops this area until 12z then dry as high pressure builds into the region. Associated cold front reaches the western fa mid/late afternoon.
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will linger across the region this afternoon.
High pressure will then move across our area Wednesday providing fair weather.
322 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Large ridge continues over the Desert Southwest with abundant warm air extending up the west coast and into the central plains. Gulf of Alaska closed low pushing a cold front onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Hudson Bay low and wave rounding it into the Great Lakes then into the northeast CONUS Cold frontal boundary along the Atlantic Coast. Backdoor cold front from north of oax to vtn. Ring of fire to the southwest and upper low breaking down ridge over western Canada as Gulf of Alaska low moves into south central Canada tomorrow this will bring a stronger wave along the South Dakota border Wednesday night with slight chances of thunderstorms retained.
309 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Upper troughing firmly in place from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. 00z sounding at CWPL in northern Ontario showed increasing h7-h5 moisture beneath the upper trough in wake of the sfc front so plan is to see increasing showers around daybreak sliding across mainly northwest to central Upper Michigan.
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight as a weather disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday.
Temperatures this morning were in the lower to middle 60s. Temps are not expected to move too much in the near term but should settle into the upper 50s to the lower 60s for lows this morning. As we move into later today, high pressure will gradually build into the region from the northwest. Mostly clear skies are expected for tonight with lows cooling into the lower 60s in most areas. A few of our cooler spots could touch the upper 50s again. Dry and warmer weather remains on tap for Wednesday as the high pressure center heads off to the east and we get more of a southerly flow into the region.
/issued 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ Looks like a fairly quiet weather pattern the next few days due to a stable and nearly stationary upper ridge across the desert southwest states. There still could be a stray thunderstorm in the Davis Mountains or the Marfa Plateau this afternoon due to very intense heating of the higher terrain and upslope flow with subdued 700 millibar temperatures.
304 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Weak high pressure will slide south of the commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. A deep upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak wave moving through a fairly strong northwest oriented upper level jet will bring a very small chance for showers to areas east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN early this morning. After this small threat passes an extremely nice day is in store as high pressure settles in at the surface.
156 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight and lift back north Wednesday night.
Temperatures and dewpoints at the surface were generally in the low to mid 60s. For tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 60s under a mostly clear sky with high pressure remaining over the area. The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s.
The orientation of the theta-e ridge across Nebraska, and elevated instability building to the north of this ridge, should allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ Updates have been made for the 10am CDT advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, and the extension of the Tropical Storm Watch to San Luis Pass.
351 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A drier and cooler air mass will move into the area tonight. Another weak trough will move across the area Wednesday and will be accompanied by scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across central and northern areas.
High temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s with dew points in the lower 60s at peak heating.
The main impact of the front will be some developing breezy conditions throughout the day and overnight and slightly cooler temperatures.
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure tonight. Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.
Drying in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere took its toll on convective initiation this afternoon with only isolated showers occurring thus far. Little change in the overall weather pattern with a squeeze play between the Atlantic ridge to our east and Tropical Storm Cindy to our west.
As a warm front lifts northward from central Nebraska late tonight, warmer and more low-level moisture will increase across the region. That said, will not discount the convection risk, especially with trailing cold front driving southward out of North Dakota late in the afternoon.
422 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 For the first few days, the upper level high off to our west will remain entrenched. The currently progged track of the system is expected to have little impact on our weather as we already are under the influence of a respectable high pressure system. As mentioned in the overnight discussion, the higher dewpoints expected later this week would tend to keep highs in check.
Strong high pressure over the region will lead to another day of record to near record temperatures across the area.
/issued 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ Potential tropical cyclone 3 continues to migrate slowly northwest acrs the central Gulf.
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure tonight. Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Upper level trough swings through on Wednesday, possibly providing some precipitation to northern portions of the area.
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the fcst region this morning as upper ridging continues to take shape over the western U. and a closed low spins over eastern Canada. Main item of concern today will focus on a weak backdoor cold front that will begin sliding south into our fcst area by afternoon as high pressure builds east across the upper Midwest. As for temperatures, compressed thermal ridging in advance of the front will lead to a pretty warm day across the area, with upper 80s to lower 90s expected areawide. Aforementioned front will actually start lifting back north as as a warm front overnight as upper Midwest high pressure slides east and leeside low pressure develops over the northern High Plains.
The threat for storms is less on Wednesday as the moisture retreats south and a cold front pushes into the region. Slightly cooler air is expected for Wednesday with noticeably cooler air arriving for late week.
A s/w in the northern stream crossing the lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic will induce a weak shear axis, currently aligned from eastern NC into central GA, to drift northwestward tonight. Expect highs in the lower/mid 80s, lows Wed night in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest far S/SE. Cindy that's currently over the Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic, will channel a plume of tropical moisture(PWATS ~2.