Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
258 PM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 After a final warm day across the area today, expect a cooler day on Thursday as temperatures fall to more seasonable levels. As cooler air moves in, a weak disturbance will bring snow to Southwestern Montana. Further north, expect a mostly quiet day with peaks of sunshine, though it will be noticeably cooler.
402 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Clearing skies will occur this evening as low pressure departs to the east.
321 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A band of thick cirrostratus stretching from southern SD to central and northern WI is sagging southeast with the leading edge of an approaching trough. Winds have been shifting more westerly as a cold front also approaches from the northwest.
Dry weather continues tonight, then a weak low pressure system brings a chance for showers Thursday.
-DZ/-RA will be patchy through the night as well, especially toward ALI-CRP which should also add to the lowering VSBYs/CIGs. Temperatures should be a bit warmer tomorrow but with plenty of cloud cover persisting, leaned more toward the cooler NAM with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Expect low clouds to continue overnight and into Thursday behind a northward moving warm front that appears to have shifted north of AEX. Tomorrow will start out with areas of fog from the I-10 corridor south to the coast as rains start to spread into central louisiana and the lakes region of Southeast Texas ahead of a cold front that is projected to drop into northern Louisiana late tomorrow afternoon. This will allow moisture to pool between the two boundary's and rains that develop will migrate to the south and southeast as the stronger of the two fronts pushes the warm front back to the south.
307 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A cold front is moving through western NE this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight. Another weak cold front will move through western NE Thursday afternoon. Highs forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler than today, from near 40 northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 50s south.
High pressure eastern Pacific ridging sitting over the area brought sunny skies, dry weather, a little cooler temperatures and a lot less wind. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a chance for Valley frost tonight as dew points increase and morning lows drop into the low to mid 30s in sheltered rural areas.
Tomorrow will start out with areas of fog from the I-10 corridor south to the coast as rains start to spread into central louisiana and the lakes region of Southeast Texas ahead of a cold front that is projected to drop into northern Louisiana late tomorrow afternoon. This will allow moisture to pool between the two boundary's and rains that develop will migrate to the south and southeast as the stronger of the two fronts pushes the warm front back to the south.
501 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Weak high pressure moves into the region tonight.
Cooler temps in the east may have a rain/snow mix on the Plateau, but not expecting any widespread impacts. Temps may be around freezing in some areas on the Plateau, so there could be a few slick spots on roads in the upper Cumberland, but expecting rain and lows in the mid 30s/low 40s likely elsewhere.
Tomorrow, a re-developing and intensifying onshore flow will bring warmer air into the region, allowing ceilings to rise to VFR levels. /issued 246 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A cold front has worked its way just west of the immediate coast and lies pretty much along I-69E. Weak but persistent isentropic upglide overnight and Thursday morning is expected with warmer 925-850mb southerly winds overriding the cooler surface condition in response to an upper low pressure area moving into NW Mexico. Limited sunshine and a delay in the south winds will likely limit maximum heating so have opted to lower temperatures below consensus keeping them in the low 70s.
544 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites late tonight and Thursday morning with north to northeast winds in its wake. A closed upper low will eject north and east out of northern Baja tonight through 18Z Thursday and then weaken into an open wave by late Thursday.
/issued 224 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ An upper level low/trough is just south of California with west southwest upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing tonight so precipitation will remain in the form of rain. The previously mentioned upper trough will move eastward over Arizona and New Mexico and will weaken on Thursday.
For 00Z Aviation discussion below A band of thick cirrostratus stretching from southern SD to central and northern WI is sagging southeast with the leading edge of an approaching trough. Winds have been shifting more westerly as a cold front also approaches from the northwest.
/issued 219 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021/ High pressure will remain overhead through the end of the week, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer tomorrow but with plenty of cloud cover persisting, leaned more toward the cooler NAM with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
High and mid-level clouds are streaming eastward across our CWA this evening ahead of an upper-level low pressure trough moving south over the coast.
Continued moistening of the lower atmosphere will occur overnight with increasing isentropic ascent. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 51 40 53 29 / 90 70 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 48 37 50 26 / 90 60 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 48 34 50 26 / 90 60 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 47 33 47 23 / 60 70 10 0 0.
118 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 High pressure will cross the region overnight through Thursday.
/issued 1005 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ Low stratus and marine fog continues to push NWD across SE TX/SW LA, with the lowest VSBYS currently along and S of I-10, and especially across Jefferson County and Cameron Parish. Tomorrow will start out with areas of fog from the I-10 corridor south to the coast as rains start to spread into central louisiana and the lakes region of Southeast Texas ahead of a cold front that is projected to drop into northern Louisiana late tomorrow afternoon. This will allow moisture to pool between the two boundary's and rains that develop will migrate to the south and southeast as the stronger of the two fronts pushes the warm front back to the south.
The clouds/rain will help keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows in the lower 40s expected. The cold front will begin to move thru the area during the day Thu, with showers continuing along the passage of the front. This may delay the onset of cooler/drier air into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. As such, afternoon highs Thu look to climb into the lower 50s for most spots, as rainfall/showers begin to diminish some with the front moving just south of the area. Seasonal temps are expected on Fri, with highs mainly in the lower 50s, before the influx of cooler air allows temps to fall into the upper 20s Fri night.
1038 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 For the 06Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites this morning with north to northeast winds in its wake. /Issued 544 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites late tonight and Thursday morning with north to northeast winds in its wake. A closed upper low will eject north and east out of northern Baja tonight through 18Z Thursday and then weaken into an open wave by late Thursday.
1100 PM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Aviation Section Updated After a final warm day across the area today, expect a cooler day on Thursday as temperatures fall to more seasonable levels. As cooler air moves in, a weak disturbance will bring snow to Southwestern Montana. Have therefore lowered them in that area around 5 degrees mostly into the lower to mid teens.
Upper level low pressure system will continue to slide east across the Great Lakes region into Ontario, with a trailing frontal boundary stretching southwest through the Western Great Lakes.
1004 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A large area of showers associated with a region of isentropic ascent and a weak upper trough axis moving from the Midwest into the Great Lakes continues to move east and away from the forecast area. Convection to drift southward into deep east Texas and northwest Louisiana on Thursday as west-northwest flow aloft amplifies downstream of an upper-level trough across the desert southwest.
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A cold front is moving through western NE this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight. Another weak cold front will move through western NE Thursday afternoon. Highs forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler than today, from near 40 northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 50s south.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below A band of thick cirrostratus stretching from southern SD to central and northern WI is sagging southeast with the leading edge of an approaching trough. Winds have been shifting more westerly as a cold front also approaches from the northwest.
232 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 06Z surface data has a cold front running from the Mackinac Straits to South Bend, IN and then across northern Missouri.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to push southward through Florida Thursday and Thursday night. As the ridge axis approaches the Keys, breezes will diminish.
Besides a few lingering light snow showers this morning, look for rather quiet weather with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in northwest MN to near 40 degrees on southeast ND. A cold front approaches the region later this weekend, but not before we see temperatures climb into the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area on Saturday.
These clear skies and west to southwest winds at the surface have allowed temperatures to push into the low 50s.
Early afternoon satellite imagery with 500mb heights and winds showed a low amplitude upper level ridge along the International Border. Southwest winds with seasonably dry and mild air ahead of this trough will lead to warm temperatures on Saturday. Continued the previous forecast's trend of going with the high end of forecast guidance for Max T. This warm air will be replaced by a push of cooler air as a cold front moves through Saturday night.
319 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 A nearly closed cyclone moving east into western Texas has aided in a broad expanse of storms over the southern Mississippi River Valley. The Florida Keys are separated from this action, dominated by the northern fringes of mean-layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean and the Yucatan. A late morning ASCAT pass placed the western edge of the low-level ridging over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a little farther west than model analyses tend to think. Northeast to east breezes prevail across the island chain, at times shifted to the northeast due to the cooler Bay and Gulf side waters. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
1147 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 (Today and tonight) Cool high pressure, centered over Colorado this morning, will shift slowly east through tonight, and should be centered near southeast Kansas early Saturday.
broad high pressure across the Central Plains and low pressure across the southern Canadian Prairies will result in a modest pressure gradient across the forecast area. Saturday will be the nicer of the two days this weekend as a strong (yet dry) cold front sweeps across the region Saturday night. With little moisture to work with, primary impacts will be increasing mid-upper level clouds, a wind shift to the northwest, and much cooler temperatures.
After a quiet (and cooler than today) Saturday, we will have to re-focus our attention at a weather system that will start ramping up to our west.
1202 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 An upper trough axis currently extends from northern MN back through western NE and Colorado. Highs were warmer a few degrees to the lower 50s across the area which is in close agreement with the latest MET and MAV guidance. On Saturday, a cold front will drop into MT and North Dakota, with warmer H85 temperatures from 8-11C across western NE. With sunny skies and west winds 10-15 mph, favorable mixing with highs raised a few degrees into the lower 60s. A cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
Weak high pressure in Colorado / Kansas border area will shift to northern Oklahoma over the next 24 hours. Lower clouds will dissipate and shift east later in the morning as a cold front moves through. /Issued 410 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/ A cold front has moved into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and will sweep across the forecast area over the next several hours. Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of the frontal passage.
Weak but steady cold air advection should counter any insolation, so temperature increase through the day will be mitigated by that cooler air working its way into the area.
Once the showers pass, skies are expected to clear this afternoon as an upper level ridge settles over the Northland. Saturday, maximum temperatures should be in the low to mid 40s, with the warmest temperatures in our southern counties.
340 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the desert sw and a trough in the upper Great Lakes. The trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning moves quickly east by this afternoon.
/Tonight through Friday/ Mostly clear skies over much of Iowa this afternoon and across several states to the west, while a large high pressure system was centered over Kansas and southern Nebraska. The area of high pressure will settle south and east overnight while an upper level trough across the mid-Mississippi Valley moves east and a more significant system digs into the Montana Rockies. This will lead to zonal flow a loft and southwest flow at the surface leading to good warm advection on Saturday with the thermal ridge arriving over the state. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.
Short range models continue to indicate a closed upper low shifting eastward through New Mexico tonight and onward into the Texas Panhandle Saturday, bringing an outside shot for precip to portions of southern southwest and south central Kansas during the afternoon and evening time frame. Considering the path of the system combined with a much drier air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas, the potential for appreciable rainfall is expected to be fairly limited. A few mid/upper 40s(F) will still be possible in southwest Kansas near and along the Oklahoma border due to expected increasing cloud cover associated with the approaching closed low.
97 An upper ridge will bring warm temperatures and clear to partly cloudy skies to Northeast Montana today and tonight. Gusty NW winds are expected Saturday afternoon behind the cold front.
1011 AM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region today as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Breezy westerly winds will develop at the surface due to high pressure to the south and west of the forecast area. Saturday will be the warmest day of the forecast as the flat upper ridge crosses the northern plains. Breezy to windy westerly downslope winds will help to warm temperatures, with some areas on the plains of western South Dakota, especially to southeast of the Black Hills, reaching the lower to mid 60s.
Southwest winds will draw warmer temperatures into the region on Saturday, with highs likely reaching into the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Another Cold Front and Possible Rain. Another cold front is push south, across West Central Texas, this morning and bringing surface winds, from the north, along with the potential for rain. As an upper low moves into New Mexico later today, it will help enhances the rain potential. Then, overnight tonight, rain chances will continue to increase, as the upper low moves toward the East, across New Mexico. This cold front will bring much cooler temperatures, and highs today will be much cooler than yesterday and mainly in the 50s.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 47 63 42 60 / 0 20 0 0 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 44 60 38 59 / 0 10 0 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 62 43 60 38 58 / 0 10 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 41 58 32 60 / 0 10 0 0 20.
1008 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a tumultuous CONUS, and yet the Keys remain under the influence of mean layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean. The forecast calls for nearly nil rain chances, highs in the lower 80s, and a little more humidity than yesterday afternoon.
As a cold front and upper level short wave move through the region today. High pressure will then move into the region from the west behind the upper level short wave tonight. Southwesterly winds return Saturday as the high pressure moves southeast toward the Ohio River Valley. The dry air and high pressure will keep skies clear Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 40s.
Short range models continue to indicate a closed upper low shifting eastward through New Mexico tonight and onward into the Texas Panhandle Saturday, bringing an outside shot for precip to portions of southern southwest and south central Kansas during the afternoon and evening time frame. Considering the path of the system combined with a much drier air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas, the potential for appreciable rainfall is expected to be fairly limited. A few mid/upper 40s(F) will still be possible in southwest Kansas near and along the Oklahoma border due to expected increasing cloud cover associated with the approaching closed low. Latest model runs still suggest the upper low moving through the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles through Saturday with drier air on the north side of the upper low in Kansas keeping the precipitation at bay.
235 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the desert sw and a trough in the upper Great Lakes. The trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning moves quickly east by this afternoon.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 63 42 60 40 / 20 0 0 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 60 38 59 39 / 10 0 0 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 43 60 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 58 32 60 40 / 0 0 0 20 90.
231 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 A dry weak cold front currently extends through southeast Illinois into far west Kentucky. The center of the high will drift east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys through the day Saturday.
Upper ridge will develop a weak inversion today but a weak trough passing to our north Saturday should remove it.
235 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 The main frontal push/boundary was shifting acrs eastern IL into IN ATTM, with ridge lobe upstream acrs the west central plains and into northern MN and western Ontario.
Did bump temperatures down to the low mid 60s northwest of I-65 this afternoon, with this portion of the forecast area seeing little sun so far today. Tonight, some cooler air is expected to move south over northern portions of the forecast area, mainly after midnight, but am expecting this to affect mainly areas long and north of Highway 84, bringing lows in the mid to upper 50s.
A storm system will move across the state today resulting in cooler temperatures and a few snow showers over the White Mountains. Saturday onward, it will remain dry with somewhat warmer than normal high temperatures. Cooler air was also accompanying this system with temperatures struggling to peak near 60 degrees yet today. The system will exit the state tonight with a weak ridge of high pressure aloft building over the area behind it this weekend.
Saturday should be a notch or two warmer with warm advection, sunshine and a favorable southwest breeze.
Poor flying conditions are expected later this afternoon as conditions begin to deteriorate across the region with the approach of a cold front.
Afternoon high temperatures should climb into the low to middle 60s across the region.
An upper trough was over the Upper Midwest moving towards the Great Lakes while a closed upper low spun over AZ. At the surface, a frontal boundary was moving through the forecast area with high pressure building into the central high plains. For today, the low clouds may hang on for a few hours after sunrise but are expected to eventually mix out leaving sunny skies for the rest of the day. Some weak cold air advection through the day is expected to keep temps cooler than yesterday with highs forecast to be around 50.
Broad ridging will nudge in through the rest of today, deamplifying and becoming more zonal overnight as a weak clipper and cold front approach from the west on Saturday. Ahead of this cold front, we will see well above average highs for this time of year with highs in the 50s across the southern half of the forecast area. Depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, and cloud cover (not much anticipated at the moment), some areas across the southern third of western and central North Dakota could flirt the with lower 60s. Regarding precipitation, most solutions continue to advertise a dry cold front passage with most of the forcing north of the International border, but its not out of the question that a few light showers may develop.
Models are showing an uptick in shower activity over the southern San Juans and maybe the southern valleys, but believe the low levels are dry enough to limit precipitation in the valleys. The low pressure system will continue tracking eastward into northeast New Mexico with skies clearing tonight as the system exits the area. Some low stratus developed last night in the lower Gunnison and Grand Junction to Montrose corridor but anticipate the Gunnison Valley to be the likely candidate for stratus tonight with lingering snow cover. Northwest flow will take hold which should help keep stratus out of the Highway 50 corridor from Grand Junction to Montrose. High pressure will build out west with drier conditions expected for Saturday under a north to northwest flow.
300 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure in the central Plains will extend across much of the Midwest and lower Ohio River Valley early in the weekend.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s, under partly cloudy skies and light winds. A weak cold front was slicing across the Osage Plains early this morning, and will continue to translate southeast through the entire Ozarks Region today. Temperatures will struggle to warm out of the low to mid 50s as this cooler airmass keeps temps in check. Overnight lows tonight could drop below freezing in most locations. We will continue to experience a split flow regime through the weekend as a cutoff upper level low pressure system tracks along the Interstate 40 corridor.
A weak ridge will build over the Midsouth tonight in response to a deepening cutoff low over the Southwestern US and Southern Plains. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 50s to low 60s.
Mixing potential, combined with a dry west to southwest wind, only high level cloud cover and no snow on the ground, gives confidence to trend toward the warmer 75th percentile models for the MaxT forecast on both days. That said, starting the period Saturday night, a cold front will funnel in cooler air as it passes through the region.
06Z surface data has a weak cold front running from northern Lake Huron into eastern Kansas. A second and slightly stronger cold front ran from northern Minnesota into South Dakota. Low and mid-level clouds will overspread the area through sunrise and first part of Friday morning as a weak cold front exits the area. Clouds are expected to be on the decrease Friday afternoon and night as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
1024 AM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Quiet weather continues in the short term as weak ridging or weak zonal flow is expected across Wyoming and the eastern high plains into western Nebraska Friday through the weekend. The upper level low over New Mexico is forecast to remain in that general area before ejecting east into the southern plains this weekend.