Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will subside during the overnight period as a trough axis moves into the region from the west. But could see convection develop in advance of the weak trough axis later this evening across the Brush Country and into the Victoria Crossroads overnight before 85H flow veers to west and northwest. Very warm and dry air will be in place across the area Tuesday as the upper low moves northeast into the central plains.
the cold front and dryline are expected to push east and southeast into Western Oklahoma and Central Texas by this evening. The movement of these features combined with an upper level low moving eastward into the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles will help to shift the deeper moisture into Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into Northwest Arkansas this evening.
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Aviation Section Updated The next weather system moves through the area, today trough tomorrow. Light snow is falling this morning over the higher elevations of Southwest MT and the Rocky Mountain Front.
Light snowfall is ongoing but decreasing across the area as the trough advances across the Rockies this morning. Precipitation will continue to diminish through the evening and there should only a slight chance of light snowfall in the high mountains overnight. Another trough will be moving across the Pacific Northwest overnight. The cooler and unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through the week, with a couple weather disturbances and additional chances of accumulating snow to deal with. Therefore, despite some dryness in the low levels, we wouldn't be surprised to see more numerous and briefly heavy showers develop in and near the Front Range Foothills overnight.
1125 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail through the week with the main storm track remaining to the west and south of the forecast area. Today will be mostly sunny with slightly warmer than average temperatures and breezy southerly winds. A split upper trough will bring a little rain and snow to northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low pressure system ejecting northeastward across the central plains is expected to swing some precipitation into our south central South Dakota zones with a good chance of rain over esp Tripp County on Tuesday, with a little rain or snow possible there on Tuesday night, little or no snow accumulations are expected there.
As the upper level low moves into the Texas Panhandle this evening, surface winds will stay up across the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the overnight hours. The upper low will pull east tonight through early Tuesday morning and will be replaced by short wave ridging on Tuesday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis in southeastern New Mexico will develop Tuesday afternoon as the next upper low drops into Arizona.
A weak cold front has moved through the Northern Rockies today, causing widespread light showers. The higher terrain has received up to 2 inches of new snow. Marias Pass could receive up to 3 inches of snow by mid Tuesday morning, so a winter weather advisory has been issued for the Highway 2 corridor from Essex to Marias Pass.
255 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Winds are picking up this afternoon as the upper level low approaches Texas. Winds will diminish quickly after 9PM CDT with the arrival of a pacific cold front.
The upper air trough with a low in the base is expected to move east across the TX panhandle and then move NE into central OK. The low pressure system at the surface should follow the same track. With this, the low pressure system moves along into KS east of the CWA. Models show the low pressure system become more vertically stacked and will move towards SE NE/NE KS/NW MO. High temperatures for the Tri-State area look to range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. Active pattern will continue as a series of short wave troughs rotate around large scale trough over the High Plains.
1201 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
Tonight and Tuesday Surface analysis at 19Z showed a cold front was draped across the area, roughly from east of Iron Mountain to east of Stevens Point. Otherwise, the main change behind the front is slightly cooler temperatures and wind shift from SW to W. The cold front will stall out across the area and slowly lift back north as a warm front. Temperature wise, the clouds and rain will keep temperatures cooler than today, but will still be mild for late March, with highs in the 50s.
The thunderstorms potential will decrease overnight, but showers will persist into tomorrow especially with the wrap-around precipitation area on the northwest side of the upper low.
An approaching low pressure system and upper trough will bring in more clouds, rain, some gusty winds, and lightning to the area tomorrow through the end of the short term. The low is centered near the New Mexico, Texas border will track NE towards the Great Lakes through the period. Pressure gradients will tighten aloft as the low approaches forming a low level jet on the front side of the system, leading to non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 25 to 30 kts for much of the area tomorrow. Models align that the highest moisture and strongest forcing will remain to the west of the area. While rain will continue to be possible overnight, chances will lessen as the low lifts over the Great Lakes.
H5 heights fall tonight ahead of an approaching closed low that will traverse the region starting late Tuesday. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to middle 30s as warmer air advects into the region.
The lower elevations still will see only some light rain changing to a rain/snow mix tomorrow evening.
128 PM PDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Onshore flow will increase ahead of an incoming low pressure system this afternoon resulting in gusty west winds over the mountains into the deserts, cooler weather, and a slight chance of light rain tonight into Tuesday morning.
847 AM PDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Onshore flow will increase ahead of an incoming low pressure system today, as a result gusty west winds will develop over the mountains into the deserts, cooler weather will prevail, and there is a slight chance of light rain tonight into Tuesday.
Cold overnight low temperatures can be expected tonight as dry conditions and offshore winds develop behind a departing cold front.
Also area of high clouds to our west in associated with trough moving east thru Saskatchewan and Montana. H5 heights fall tonight ahead of an approaching closed low that will traverse the region starting late Tuesday. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to middle 30s as warmer air advects into the region.
239 PM PDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Winds increase through Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.
650 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Moisture continues to increase over the area this evening ahead of the next cold front.
Though conditions are largely VFR, already starting to see some degradation as streamer showers increase in advance of approaching cold front.
Surface analysis shows weak low pressure centered off the Carolina coast, with a weak trough trailing SW back across South Florida. Continued weakening winds, low dewpoints in the mid 50s, and lack of cloud cover will allow for excellent radiational cooling during the late night hours, and the existing forecast of lows ranging from the mid 50s (at sheltered interior locations such as North Big Pine) to the lower 60s appears to be on track.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms with small hail continue this evening under the cold upper trough currently over our CWA.
An upper level low will spin its way across the TX panhandle and northeast through NW OK and into central KS. Cigs expected to stay MVFR through most of the period at all sites given wrap around moisture associated with the upper low.
Overcast skies will still hold overnight in most spots, but Tuesday promises to finally allow for some sunshine and warmer temperatures.
739 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. Upper ridge axis shifts east tonight, giving way to a passing ribbon of high and mid level moisture in increasing southwesterly flow aloft. It may be a bit cooler on the eastern slopes in the mountains as easterly flow results in low level moisture advection ahead of low pressure along the NC coast.
540 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Latest shows upper closed low over New Mexico and western Texas with southwesterly flow aloft extending into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Latest 18z surface analysis indicates weak cold front from southern Ontario Canada into eastern Iowa. Latest visible satellite imagery shows clouds overspreading northward in advance of the upper level closed low. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air advecting into the area along with weak isentropic lift at the 290k surface.
A disturbance originating from an upper level low over north Texas will initiate a line of showers and thunderstorms that will reach the terminals during the morning hours on Tuesday. There doesn't appear to be an obvious mesoscale feature responsible for this enhancement other than increasing low and mid level moisture, but the current radar analysis and the near universal model agreement lend credence to the higher PoPs.
456 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will move off to the east of the area this evening. A deep trough with an associated low pressure will move through central Texas tonight. This will bring a slow moving cold front into the forecast zones. Front will stall over the next several days with a slow moving warm front setting up along the Gulf coast.
640 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough centered over the OK/TX Panhandle region, with a shield of clouds/moisture streaming northward into the Upper Midwest. That break will be brief, however, as the mid-upper low rotates into Iowa, and precipitation becomes widespread again to its north.
658 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
445 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The edge of an elevate warm front combined with some mid level moisture has made for a few weak returns on the radar this afternoon. These are likely just virga showers, located mainly across north-central portions, given the high dewpoint spreads. The lower atmosphere will still be very dry, thus its hard to imagine much precipitation reaching the ground but some areas may see a few hundredths of liquid. For temperatures on Tuesday, the highs should be slightly cooler than today with more abundant cloud cover but still above normal.
525 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Broad upper trough covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the low centered over the Four Corners region. Upper low will swing through the central states tonight into Tuesday, while the Pac NW wave will strengthen into a closed low as it dives into the Four Corners region. A few showers will be possible Fri/Sat with energy from the Pac NW trough.
A trough moving through the Great Basin tonight through Tuesday will lead to a chance of light precipitation, primarily for the higher elevations of the Sierra, and higher elevations of the Tehachapi and Fort Tejon areas.
914 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure continues across the CWA tonight. Tuesday will bring a pattern shift as an upper low and associated upper trough pivot across Central Plains, driving moist southwesterly flow over the area. The surface cold front associated with this system will remain well off to our west, and with no defined surface feature to focus showers or convection, expecting mainly light showers tomorrow. Instability looks to be essentially zero and the strongest dynamics associated with the low will remain well to our north and west, so do not have thunder in the grids.
735 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
Tuesday will bring a pattern shift as an upper low and associated upper trough pivot across Central Plains, driving moist southwesterly flow over the area. The surface cold front associated with this system will remain well off to our west, and with no defined surface feature to focus showers or convection, expecting mainly light showers tomorrow. Instability looks to be essentially zero and the strongest dynamics associated with the low will remain well to our north and west, so do not have thunder in the grids.
Clouds will continue to filter into the area overnight ahead of the upper trough currently centered in the southern plains.
844 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Impressive 60 to 70 knot low level jet continues to spread into eastern Oklahoma this evening ahead of potent upper low moving through the Texas Panhandle. As the main upper low approaches overnight, steepening mid level lapse rates/cold temperatures aloft will support the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms to redevelop after midnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
515 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
Temperatures also look to be slightly cooler for Tuesday. The edge of an elevate warm front combined with some mid level moisture has made for a few weak returns on the radar this afternoon. These are likely just virga showers, located mainly across north-central portions, given the high dewpoint spreads. The lower atmosphere will still be very dry, thus its hard to imagine much precipitation reaching the ground but some areas may see a few hundredths of liquid. For temperatures on Tuesday, the highs should be slightly cooler than today with more abundant cloud cover but still above normal.
Lastly, the cold front that has moved through the South Plains this evening has carried in cooler air and much improved moisture levels, bringing an end to the critical fire weather. As the upper level low moves into the Texas Panhandle this evening, surface winds will stay up across the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the overnight hours. The upper low will pull east tonight through early Tuesday morning and will be replaced by short wave ridging on Tuesday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis in southeastern New Mexico will develop Tuesday afternoon as the next upper low drops into Arizona.
1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Latest shows upper closed low over New Mexico and western Texas with southwesterly flow aloft extending into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Latest 18z surface analysis indicates weak cold front from southern Ontario Canada into eastern Iowa. Latest visible satellite imagery shows clouds overspreading northward in advance of the upper level closed low. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air advecting into the area along with weak isentropic lift at the 290k surface.
The latest closed low was over eastern NM moving into west TX per the 20Z water vapor and profiler data. At the surface, an inverted trough extended north and northeast from west TX into the mid MO river valley. The higher dewpoint temps were located across southern OK and central TX. Thunderstorm chances look to be slightly better on Tuesday as the center of the low pressure system lifts northeast across the area. Nevertheless have some decent POPs through the day Tuesday and then slowly decreasing through the evening as the upper low continues moving north.
High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain through Tuesday.
The upper lvl pattern will momentarily return to zonal flow today until the next upper lvl trough located over western CONUS trudges towards the region. A cold front will move into the area Wed morning dropping temps to near normal. A great amount of lift is associated with this trough but surface dewpoints will be low across the area leading to higher based precipitation and virga. Therefore, precip associated with this system will be minimal across the area with the greatest accumulations in the Davis Mountains and the Lower Trans Pecos. After the aforementioned upper lvl trough moves out of the area we will see a return to upper lvl zonal flow.
The upper level low that brought thunderstorms, along with gusty winds and blowing dust to the area has moved northeast of the area early this morning. Overnight, winds will turn to the southeast as surface pressure drops occur responding to the approaching upper level low, increasing moisture, and lows will drop into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.
An upper level low will lift north through central and eastern Nebraska today, reaching Iowa this evening. Areas to the east of Highway 83 will be cooler compared to areas to the west thanks to dynamic cooling from heavier precipitation compared to the west. Although temperatures will be cooler, they will still be well above freezing and the main precipitation type should be rain by mid- morning as temperatures rise.
406 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 As the short term period begins the morning, the axis of the upper level ridge has cleared Georgia to the east and is approaching the Atlantic coast.
IFR/LIFR conditions likely over the next 2 to 4 hours at all TAF sites as return moisture on the back side of the low brings showers/isolated storms to the area. Breezy north winds will continue for a good majority of the TAF period behind the cold front. Closed upper low over New Mexico will lift north and east later today across the Panhandles and then across Oklahoma by 06Z Tuesday. Gusty northwest to north surface winds expected through tonight behind the cold front.
203 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES-16 Water Vapor showing a weak mid-level trough ejecting northeast across IA/western IL. Moisture surge ahead of this trough along with mid-level f-gen was producing widely scattered showers across southeast MN into northern WI. Meanwhile, a vigorous closed low was churning along the OK/TX border -our next weather maker through the next 24-36 hours.
As a low pressure system moves through the central U. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 55 69 57 70 / 30 40 30 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 52 68 53 70 / 10 20 20 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 69 52 69 55 69 / 10 20 20 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 48 69 48 70 / 10 20 20 10 70.
This activity is ahead of a cold front which is currently over central Oklahoma and extends south into south central Texas. This cold front will move east today across Arkansas approaching the Mississippi River by early this evening. The cold front is expected to stall out close to the Mississippi River tonight with some scattered showers expected across eastern sections of the Mid-South.
202 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A broad upper trough remains over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Two low pressure systems are located in the region of the upper trough. The eastern low pressure system will continue to move northeastward into Iowa today. Deep moisture rotating around that low pressure system will bring rain to parts of south central South Dakota today.
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
Currently, ridging is retreating across the eastern CONUS, with a seasonably deep upper level low churning across the southern Plains. Temporary flatter flow is occupying the Desert Southwest, with additional troughing moving in across the Intermountain West. At the surface, ridging is still maintaining control across the East, with deepening low pressure centered across southern Kansas. The upper level ridge across the East will dampen and move out across the western Atlantic today, while the southern Plains upper level low will move northeast across the Midwest.
Moisture continues to increase over the area this evening ahead of the next cold front.
Expect this area to remain a focus for increased rainfall as the low pressure system lifts north and east throughout the day. The low pressure system will move northeastward through Kansas today and make its way to Iowa by tonight.
409 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Under mostly clear skies and light and variable winds, temperatures range from the lower to mid 50s to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere along the Florida Keys. A large and deep cyclonic gyre over the Southern Plains will lift northeastward, while an expansive and strengthening anticyclone expands northward over the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean.
1044 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Broad upper trough covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the low centered over the Four Corners region. Upper low will swing through the central states tonight into Tuesday, while the Pac NW wave will strengthen into a closed low as it dives into the Four Corners region. A few showers will be possible Fri/Sat with energy from the Pac NW trough.
The upper air trough with a low in the base is expected to move east across the TX panhandle and then move NE into central OK. The low pressure system at the surface should follow the same track. With this, the low pressure system moves along into KS east of the CWA. Models show the low pressure system become more vertically stacked and will move towards SE NE/NE KS/NW MO. High temperatures for the Tri-State area look to range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
Showers linger while a high amplitude trough of low pressure over the Northern Rockies moves east later this morning.
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Upper low over northwestern Oklahoma will move to the northeast with stratus being eroded by drier air advecting in from the northwest. A weak cold front will move south past the three TAF sites early Tuesday evening. Lastly, the cold front that has moved through the South Plains this evening has carried in cooler air and much improved moisture levels, bringing an end to the critical fire weather. As the upper level low moves into the Texas Panhandle this evening, surface winds will stay up across the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the overnight hours. The upper low will pull east tonight through early Tuesday morning and will be replaced by short wave ridging on Tuesday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis in southeastern New Mexico will develop Tuesday afternoon as the next upper low drops into Arizona.
414 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 The area of low pressure just offshore of the SE US coast will continue to lift out to the NE today away from the area and allow for drier high pressure to build over the state.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon along a warm frontal boundary, with the potential for a a few strong to severe storms developing after noon from near the KC metro into central Missouri, lifting north through the afternoon toward the MO/IA border by sunset. The influence of the wrapped up 500mb trough over the southern plains is well evident on regional radar mosaic. In response, ample mid 50s dew points advecting into the region will support MUCAPE values around 500 to 700 J/KG within the warm sector ahead of a warm frontal boundary lifting into the lower Missouri River valley between 1 and 3 PM. with only some lingering precipitation near the low center as it lifts northeast through midnight.
High clouds thicken during Tuesday as the Midwest cold front stalls from there into the northern Great Lakes. This occurs as the next low pressure system arrives in the central Plains with the primary effect on SE MI weather being the increased clouds along with addition of a slight SE component to the wind reintroducing the cooling Great Lakes influence.
315 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Upper level short wave ridging will move over the forecast area today in the wake of yesterday's upper low and ahead of the next upper low that will strengthen as it moves southeastward over the Great Basin. Surface winds will back from northwest toward southwest as the ridge moves overhead. Fair weather with near normal temperatures today will be followed by an increase in cirrus ahead of the western low and then by an increase in mid cloud with some mid-level moistening upstream from the upper level ridge axis and in an area of increasing mid-level warm, moist advection.
The main concern in the short term is a line of strong to severe thunderstorms along the boundary of a weak cold front.
1053 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough centered over the OK/TX Panhandle region, with a shield of clouds/moisture streaming northward into the Upper Midwest. That break will be brief, however, as the mid-upper low rotates into Iowa, and precipitation becomes widespread again to its north.