Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1124 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge over the Northern Rockies in advance of a strong wave over southern BC. At the surface, lee trof is deepening along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Dry west/southwest flow (downslope) will increase today in advance of aformentioned short wave and associated cold front, with temps pushing well into the 70s, with some 80s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front will enter our northwest 1/3rd of zones late this afternoon and quickly cross the rest of the CWFA this evening as short wave races eastward along the Canadian border.
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Lingering low clouds over the area will keep temps cooler today before some breaks occur over the region this afternoon. Meanwhile much warmer air will spread across the area on Friday before a cold front surges southward into Kansas. Numerous storms look to develop along the cold front in the afternoon/evening with severe storms likely given very unstable airmass and strong wind shear aloft. Shear orientation is more parallel to the cold front therefore convective mode should quickly become linear on Friday.
Dry dew points in the 40s were noted over our CWA, but a band of lower clouds in south central Kansas represented more humid air where dew points in the lower 60s were common. Western upper trough is forecast to deepen through the weekend as upper low drifts southeast into the Pacific Northwest.
133 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A weak cold front will stall over or near the area today.
308 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A weak cold front attempted to move into the area this morning however it's southerly progress has stalled.
An upper low spins over the eastern Bahamas and is pulling in drier air from the northeast over central and southwest Florida.
344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Fairly pleasant day so far today with the dry airmass in place and high pressure dominating, leading to only the development of a Cu field this afternoon. High pressure is currently nestled along the northern Gulf coast, leading to light south to southeasterly winds across the area.
This activity is occurring along and ahead of a weak cold front that is just about to enter northwest Stewart County. At 17Z a cold front is getting ready to push into TN.
Dry high pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals. Expect exceedingly low preicp chances and only partly cloudy skies through the day as high pressure currently centered around SE LA holds, and as a dry air mass (as evidenced by a PWAT of 1. High pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the area this morning, and these features will remain in place through Friday. This weekend low pressure will move across the plains which will push a cold front into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. The southerly flow ahead of the front and around the ridge parked over the southeast states will draw in moisture from the gulf.
An approaching cold front will allow for scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to move through the forecast area this afternoon through early evening.
254 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 The cold front continues to stay draped across Tennessee to our north. As the front to our north dies out tonight and never makes it south into our area, high pressure remains dominant over the Tennessee River Valley. Our summer-like pattern continues, with high temps remaining in the low to mid 90s. With a little more subsidence from high pressure building back up into Tennessee, expect mostly sunny skies Friday with almost no chance of rain.
The cold front will sink south through the day and reach southern North Dakota Friday evening.
A cold front will pass across the CWA later tonight bringing much cooler temperatures for Friday, especially over the plains.
Attention turns to low pressure moving through the Dakotas into southern Ontario tonight. This will push a cold front into central/eastern MN by morning. Showers and storms should be pushed southeast of the area completely by late Friday evening as high pressure builds in from MN/Dakotas.
256 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Tonight and Friday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide tranquil, but hot conditions through Friday. Morning sounding were showing substantial depth of dry air in the lower levels.
/issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ Fairly pleasant day so far today with the dry airmass in place and high pressure dominating, leading to only the development of a Cu field this afternoon. High pressure is currently nestled along the northern Gulf coast, leading to light south to southeasterly winds across the area.
609 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Dry weather is expected through Friday under high pressure.
Surface trof across western SD-eastern WY with gusty southwest winds over much of the area. A cold front over western MT will drop southward later tonight and winds will become northwest.
1009 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Mean-layer ridging remains centered over Gulf of Mexico, while a TUTT centered over the Bahamas continues its slow northwest march. The only exception is the extreme western portions of the Gulf waters and Hawk Channel adjacent to the Lower Keys which can expect a brief period of moderate to possibly low end fresh breezes.
The low pressure system responsible for the active shower and thunderstorm pattern will track north and east of our area by late Friday. Water vapor imagery depicts the current position of the upper low just northwest of Yuma. Models show a very gradual shift eastward later today as the low begins to fill in, finally vacating our area tomorrow evening as an open wave. As conditions dry out, the return of heat gets held off by yet another deep trough that digs down the western U.
The cold front continues to stay draped across Tennessee to our north. As the front to our north dies out tonight and never makes it south into our area, high pressure remains dominant over the Tennessee River Valley. Our summer-like pattern continues, with high temps remaining in the low to mid 90s. With a little more subsidence from high pressure building back up into Tennessee, expect mostly sunny skies Friday with almost no chance of rain.
high pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern over the region. /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ Fairly pleasant day so far today with the dry airmass in place and high pressure dominating, leading to only the development of a Cu field this afternoon. High pressure is currently nestled along the northern Gulf coast, leading to light south to southeasterly winds across the area.
508 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Mid to upper ridging will prevail from the Gulf of Mexico through the SE CONUS as an upper low progresses poleward through the Bahamas.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide tranquil, but hot conditions through Friday. Morning sounding were showing substantial depth of dry air in the lower levels.
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ Fairly benign weather was experienced across the area today as high pressure continues to reign across the Gulf. A weak disturbance off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will round the western edge of the ridge of high pressure over the next few days. The increased cloud cover tomorrow will allow daytime temperatures to be sightly cooler than today, but the increased moisture will make it feel a little humid tomorrow.
High pressure stretching across the state will keep relatively light offshore winds and minimal seas for the next couple of days with afternoon sea breeze shifting winds onshore.
/issued 308 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ A weak cold front attempted to move into the area this morning however it's southerly progress has stalled.
558 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Dry weather is expected through Friday under high pressure.
955 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Dry conditions will return as an area of high pressure moves overhead tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 94 70 93 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 91 68 90 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 91 68 91 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 20.
/issued 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ An upper low over southern California is drawing mid level moisture up from Mexico helping initiate showers and storms this afternoon in the Big Bend. This low will move northeast tomorrow increasing instability and spreading widely scattered storms northeast into the Permian Basin. Unfortunately the lack of cold fronts means temperatures will remain above normal and we will have to wait a bit longer for fall to feel like fall.
/issued 508 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ Mid to upper ridging will prevail from the Gulf of Mexico through the SE CONUS as an upper low progresses poleward through the Bahamas.
632 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A cold front will finish pushing across central PA late this afternoon and early this evening. Dry conditions will return as an area of high pressure moves overhead tonight.
The cold front responsible for today's rain has pushed through Middle TN and we can expect temperatures to cool off tonight as lower dew points filter in from the north. A weak cold front has cleared with VFR conditions at all four terminals.
Scattered showers exist along a cold front which extends from near Baker to McCall. Dry conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures 5-15 degrees cooler than today. Scattered showers associated with a weak cold front pushing SE through the region overnight.
Cooler temperatures, diminishing winds and increasing humidities will be the trends this evening. A cold front will pass across the CWA later tonight bringing much cooler temperatures for Friday, especially over the plains.
As the front to our north dies out tonight and never makes it south into our area, high pressure remains dominant over the Tennessee River Valley. Our summer-like pattern continues, with high temps remaining in the low to mid 90s. With a little more subsidence from high pressure building back up into Tennessee, expect mostly sunny skies Friday with almost no chance of rain.
942 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A ridge extending across east central FL from a high pressure east of South Carolina tonight is the responsible feature the very quiet and dry weather-wise night.
Cooling trend begins today as ridge of high pressure weakens. Continued cooling tomorrow as trough digs southward and an onshore flow regime becomes established.
Warm temperatures today will trend cooler Friday as a weak weather system crosses New Mexico.
235 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Cooling trend begins today as ridge of high pressure weakens. Continued cooling tomorrow as trough digs southward and an onshore flow regime becomes established.
903 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A cold front will finish pushing across central PA late this afternoon and early this evening. Dry conditions will return as an area of high pressure moves overhead tonight.
/DC/ Tonight and Friday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide tranquil, but hot conditions through Friday. Morning sounding were showing substantial depth of dry air in the lower levels.
Active weather continues across the area today as an upper level low pressure system remains over southern Califorina. The location of the low is allowing for upper level instability to combine with moisture advection from the Gulf of California, creating showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Shower activity is expected to decrease into Friday as the low pressure system begins to move eastward, and synoptic conditions become less favorable. By a strong low pressure system will drop out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin.
An upper low moves slowly northward near the Bahamas while a larger scale upper ridge is oriented from the western Atlantic to across the northern Gulf. A weak and diffuse frontal boundary will be located across central Mississippi/Alabama early this evening, including an equally weak and diffuse surface trof located across the southern portion of the area. An isolated shower or storm may linger into the evening hours along the weak surface trof but will not be sufficient in coverage to mention pops. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 90s, and record highs or near record highs are possible at Mobile and Pensacola.
East to southeasterly winds this evening are expected to become more southerly and increase overnight tonight as a warm front lifts northward through the CWA.
318 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Warm and humid conditions return today ahead of the next cold front which will become aligned through central / southern KS by mid afternoon. Upper low currently centered over the northern Baja will become increasingly sheared as it ejects across the southern Plains Friday night through Saturday.
These gusty and warm conditions are in response to a low pressure system developing ahead of a strong upper level trough across the western CONUS. It can be expected for dry conditions to continue through the evening hours for most of the region as model guidance is in good agreement that the warm front will be stationed across central Missouri through tonight. A key factor that may result in an (increase/decrease) of PoPs would be the warm front being further to (south/north) respectively. Looking ahead to Saturday, model guidance suggests the warm front will linger across southeast Kansas into central Missouri.
117 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 High pressure will move east of the region today, allowing SSW winds to crank up by late morning on into the afternoon. ridge.
A cold front is just about out of the area and the associated cloud shield with the front will follow in the next few hours. This will lead to overnight low temperatures a few degrees cooler than last night.
An upper low is seen digging along the BC coast. At the surface, northwest winds ushering in cooler air to the region. Upper low currently along the BC coast will dig into the Pac NW tonight and Saturday. Next strong wave will rotate around this upper low and eject into the Northern Plains very late tonight and Saturday.
329 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A weak cold front will be stationary across the area today.
Attention turns to low pressure moving through the Dakotas into southern Ontario tonight. This will push a cold front into central/eastern MN by morning. Showers and storms should be pushed southeast of the area completely by late Friday evening as high pressure builds in from MN/Dakotas. Saturday starts off pretty nice but then moisture return during the afternoon on the backside of departing high and in advance of a mid- level trough will send increasing cloudiness along with a few showers (mainly south of I-90) by later in the afternoon.
/Issued 410 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ Surface cold front which moved through the forecast area early this morning is showing signs of washing out as of this writing.
The subtropical ridge is forecast to become centered just east of the forecast area, and this will help to increase southerly surface wind, especially along/west of the MS River. Warmer than normal temperatures will be the general rule for tonight with readings struggling to fall below 70F.
A warm front will continue to lift northeast through the CWA overnight tonight with winds becoming more southerly and increasing behind the boundary.
335 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Satellite imagery this morning was showing large area of low pressure centered near Hudson bay. At the surface, low pressure was centered along the ND/MN border with a cold front extending southwestward to the NE panhandle. Models are in good agreement that large scale flow over the CONUS will become highly amplified over this weekend with a large low encompassing the the western half of the CONUS and a dome of high pressure over the eastern half. For today, a cold front is expected to push across the CWA later this morning. By afternoon the boundary is progged to lift as a warm front, allowing for an additional round of precip through the day.
301 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and mild weather today. Warmer air returns on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through Saturday.
444 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Mean-layer ridging is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States. High pressure is favored over the western North Atlantic and the northeastern United States. Temperatures are near 80 with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
830 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, and snow to the mountains this weekend.
high pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern over the region.
Dry dew points in the 40s were noted over our CWA, but a band of lower clouds in south central Kansas represented more humid air where dew points in the lower 60s were common. Western upper trough is forecast to deepen through the weekend as upper low drifts southeast into the Pacific Northwest. Friday cold front won't make it very far south before southerly flow drags it northward Saturday night, signaling increasing chances for convection and a warmer end to the weekend. Showers are possible much of the day Saturday as moisture is lifted over warm front to the south.
337 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A cold front is sliding across the region this morning with light showers ongoing. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s, or 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A developing low pressure system west of the region will bring increasing south to southeasterly winds on Saturday. Not expecting much pcpn east of the Highway 83 as the airmass will be rather dry.
A cold front approaching the terminals from the north will ignite a line of storms near 00Z and these storms will push south towards the terminals with time.
This wl be in response to the flow pattern aloft transitioning fm zonal to SWLY, as upper high blds acrs the SERN states and a closed low drops into the Pacific NW.
Tonight, cooler air will follow into the state as high pressure positions itself across southern Canada. Low temperatures tonight will depend on cloud cover, but it generally looks like some widespread frost is likely along highway 2 and north, where lows will be in the lower 30s.
Otherwise, dry weather will continue overnight as high pressure to the northeast still has an influence. This results in a warm front passing through the region advecting moisture into the area. Models continue to be general agreement in depicting upper level high pressure building over our area and remaining for much of the period.
The cold front responsible for today's rain has pushed through Middle TN and we can expect temperatures to cool off tonight as lower dew points filter in from the north. Otherwise, with sfc/upper level ridging influences in place, passing patches of sct CU possible at all terminal locations thru 28/06Z.
1028 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, and snow to the mountains this weekend.
/issued 308 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ A weak cold front attempted to move into the area this morning however it's southerly progress has stalled. The neutrally oriented trough should have enough dynamics combined with increasing moisture to lead to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning however since this will be during the night instability will be subdued. Precipitation chances will begin to increase yet again Saturday evening as upper level high pressure sets up over the southeast U. and an upper level low remains out over the west.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a theta-e boundary separating drier air across south GA and southeast AL and cooler air directly behind the Gulf seabreeze.
Tonight the front to our west won't make much eastward progress as its parent low pulls northeastward across eastern Canada and the trailing cold front weakens. A south breeze around 10 mph will keep low temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range, except possibly a little cooler in sheltered eastern valleys. We'll start off the weekend with a rather large, anomalous upper level ridge centered over the Gulf Coast States. This ridge over time will amplify over the eastern CONUS as its core slowly drifts northward and tightens its grip over the Ohio Valley by midweek. Systems traveling along the periphery of the ridge will be just outside of our region, unfortunately.
Tomorrow, flow begins to shift to a southwesterly direction ahead of the next trough.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front stretching from North Alabama and Mississippi, then back through Central Arkansas. Overnight showers and thunderstorms combined with lingering clouds have kept temperatures in the 70s north of I-40 while temperatures south of the front across North Mississippi are in the lower 90s. Short term models indicate the aforementioned weak cold front will begin to move back north as a warm front tonight with surface and upper level ridging returning to the Mid-South for Friday and into the upcoming weekend. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions remain the preferred models of choice for now as the operational GFS indicates a slightly wetter and cooler bias. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Models continue to point to broad upper level ridging holding fast through much of the new week with bits of upper level energy occasionally rippling through the flow.
The low stratus will continue to erode off to the northeast. For tomorrow, a cold front will approach from the north and eventually bisect the state by the afternoon. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will develop downstream ahead of a large UL trof across the Pacific Northwest. Will go with the NBM solution, which looks like a good compromise between a farther warm front solution versus a more limited progression of said front.
Large mid to upper level low remains stationary over the central Bahamas. Mid to upper level low over the Bahamas will lift northward and deform as its back side remains just offshore the FL east coast.
257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A broad trough sits over the northern CONUS this morning with a weak, cut-off low over the Desert Southwest. The flow aloft over our neck of the woods is quasi-zonal at this time but will transition more southwesterly beginning today as the Southwest trough moves east and the subtropical ridge over the Southeast builds.
Storms are possible late afternoon across the higher terrain west of the terminals, though a better chance exists after 28/00Z when storms are progged to develop west and progress northeastward across the area. /issued 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/ An upper low over southern California is drawing mid level moisture up from Mexico helping initiate showers and storms this afternoon in the Big Bend. This low will move northeast tomorrow increasing instability and spreading widely scattered storms northeast into the Permian Basin. Unfortunately the lack of cold fronts means temperatures will remain above normal and we will have to wait a bit longer for fall to feel like fall.
632 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A weak cold front will be stationary across the area today.
323 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The eastward progression of the low pressure in the Desert Southwest has slowed and the track is a touch further south. Daytime heating should result in scattered storm development over the high terrain this afternoon. The main low pressure dropping southward over the Pacific Northwest today will increase the pressure gradient across the region so let the wind begin. The Uintas have the best shot of precipitation given the proximity to the trough and therefore a weaker cap.
503 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The eastward progression of the low pressure in the Desert Southwest has slowed and the track is a touch further south. Daytime heating should result in scattered storm development over the high terrain this afternoon. The main low pressure dropping southward over the Pacific Northwest today will increase the pressure gradient across the region so let the wind begin. The Uintas have the best shot of precipitation given the proximity to the trough and therefore a weaker cap.