Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
903 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build into the region through the holiday weekend, bringing cooler and drier air into the region.
814 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Cold front remains well south of the area in southern GA and with drier air over the forecast area, expect mostly clear skies and as result, favorable radiational cooling. Remained on the lower side of guidance for lows tonight in conjunction with our local radiational scheme.
Warmer and more humid air will return for Sunday through at least the first half of the workweek, with at least daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms before a cold front arrives by mid to late week. Amplified mid level flow pattern with a strong ridge building into the MS VLY and a deep trough/closed low over New England. Temperatures will be seasonable tonight with lows from the lower 60s southeast to the upper 60s northwest.
Hi-res models also develop convection over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico, where any additional rainfall will result in flash flooding. Sunday, models develop convection along a weak convergence zone over the higher terrain, then hint at generating a MCS to the north and clipping our NE zones Sunday night. Regarding temperatures, thicknesses are still set to increase Sunday, yielding perhaps the highest temperatures this forecast.
538 PM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure has started to amplify over the Intermountain West as projected today with northwesterly flow aloft persisting across much of eastern Utah and western Colorado. In response to this building ridge, temperatures have trended generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings. Isolated to scattered convection has developed over the higher terrain with activity beginning to drift into the lower elevations. Sunday will see the high's center migrate over the Four Corners area. By Sunday evening clouds will be on the increase as a midlevel trough approaches from the west.
Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler this afternoon across North-central Montana, but overall remain well above average through the weekend.
844 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 With high pressure firmly established across the Tennessee Valley, expect clear, calm, and tranquil conditions again overnight. It should be a bit warmer though, with most models building 925 mb temperatures between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius over portions of northern Alabama. With abundant sunshine, this should translate into highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in most locations. However, humidity values will be fairly low, so it should still be a pleasant holiday, despite the warmer temperatures. As we go into Sunday night, the warm front to our south tries to move northward towards the area. This should translate into a bit more moist airmass and should keep lows a bit warmer.
/22/ Tonight through Sunday: By July standards at least, the weather this weekend will be comfortable over most of the ArkLaMiss region as a large trough resides temporarily over the eastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall well into the 60s generally north of the Highway 84 corridor.
Warmer and more humid air will return for Sunday through at least the first half of the workweek, with at least daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms before a cold front arrives by mid to late week. Warm, moist ascent ahead of a weak warm front across the central Great Lakes will bring some clouds to the forecast area overnight. This will keep temperatures warmer than last night. Lows will range from the lower 60s southeast to the upper 60s northwest.
/Issued 243 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021/ Stalled frontal boundary is situated across south/south central GA, with a sprawling high pressure centered across the middle of the country. The old frontal boundary should remain nearly stationary through the period, possibly pushing just a little further south as the high center builds eastward through tomorrow.
With a ridge in the middle of the country and a deep trough near the Atlantic seaboard, the Quad State has northerly flow today at upper-levels which has kept conditions cooler than average along with fairly low dew points.
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Weak downsloping winds will offset some of the cold air advection and allow temperatures to get into the mid 80s for most areas and possibly upper 80s in warmer spots. With the dry air and winds falling off as the ridge continues to build in, strong radiational cooling will occur overnight into Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the low 60s, about 10 degrees below normal. As with most anomalous events, there's a good bit of spread amongst guidance on the overnight lows so steered towards the low end of guidance given the setup.
Swly winds and plenty of sunshine will boost temps into the lower 90s over all of srn WI. Temps will be even warmer tomorrow, likely cracking 90 most places, if not the low 90s. Models have been trending a bit slower with the low pressure system and associated weak front that will approach Sunday night.
We will be hot again Sunday but slightly cooler than today. A weak cold front will push through the area this evening and this will provide only a slight cool down for Sunday. Prominent upper ridging will continue for most of the week.
With the cold front stalled just south of our CWA, cooler than normal morning low temperatures in the 60s are expected for the whole CWA Sunday. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Sunday: By July standards at least, the weather this weekend will be comfortable over most of the ArkLaMiss region as a large trough resides temporarily over the eastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall well into the 60s generally north of the Highway 84 corridor.
Temperatures with abundant sunshine have reached the lower 80s so far in typically warmer areas. Drier air has moved south into the area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s in most locations. It should be a bit warmer though, with most models building 925 mb temperatures between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius over portions of northern Alabama. With abundant sunshine, this should translate into highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in most locations. However, humidity values will be fairly low, so it should still be a pleasant holiday, despite the warmer temperatures. As we go into Sunday night, the warm front to our south tries to move northward towards the area. This should translate into a bit more moist airmass and should keep lows a bit warmer.
Along with the low cigs, fog may be possible tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms may be possible Sunday morning in the eastern Panhandles ahead of a short wave trough moving southward in the increasingly northerly flow aloft. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move from northwest to southeast across the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening in association with another short wave trough moving south southeast from Colorado. Tornadoes are not likely given the higher LCL's and the lack of shear in the lowest levels.
Although vertical shear thru this corridor is rather weak (20-25 kt of effective bulk shear), much of this is focused in the lowest 3 km or so AGL, which may support some modest organization along advancing outflow boundaries. 500hpa short wave trof moving through mean flow. dragging 700hpa and sfc trofs will bring chances for pcpn this evening. Even with 500hpa ridging trying to build into the upper plains through the beginning of the week.
353 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 A trough is currently working its way southeast across the area. A warm front will move east across the area this afternoon through tonight as the associated low tracks east across James Bay.
With high pressure firmly established across the Tennessee Valley, expect clear, calm, and tranquil conditions again overnight. It should be a bit warmer though, with most models building 925 mb temperatures between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius over portions of northern Alabama. With abundant sunshine, this should translate into highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in most locations. However, humidity values will be fairly low, so it should still be a pleasant holiday, despite the warmer temperatures. As we go into Sunday night, the warm front to our south tries to move northward towards the area. This should translate into a bit more moist airmass and should keep lows a bit warmer.
At the surface, ~1,015mb high pressure is centered over the western Ohio River Valley. For the daytime, the ridge will continue to shift eastward, allowing for height rises and the start of a warming trend.
An upper trof over the easternmost states, the axis of which extends back across the north central Gulf coast states, lifts off to the northeast through Sunday, and in the process leaves an upper level weakness oriented over the northern Gulf. The upper level weakness later dissipates as a broad upper ridge develops over the north central Gulf coast area and back westward into the southern Plains.
127 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Cold front remains well to the south in southern GA and with drier air over the forecast area, expect mostly clear skies to continue and as result, favorable radiational cooling. Remained on the lower side of guidance for lows tonight in conjunction with our local radiational scheme. An upper level trough will move offshore Monday allowing ridging to build back over the forecast area. Highs on Sunday should be around normal, in the low 90s.
Although vertical shear thru this corridor is rather weak (20-25 kt of effective bulk shear), much of this is focused in the lowest 3 km or so AGL, which may support some modest organization along advancing outflow boundaries. 500hpa short wave trof moving through mean flow. dragging 700hpa and sfc trofs will bring chances for pcpn this evening. Even with 500hpa ridging trying to build into the upper plains through the beginning of the week. the next trof/boundary pushes into through the nrn plains Monday afternoon evening.
Sunrise temperatures across portions of west Tennessee will be in the upper 50s on this Independence Day with most of the area in the low 60s.
The resulting northeast wind flow contd to bring drier/cooler airmass into the region compared to what we would normally see for early July.
420 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Monday with mostly clear skies.
Further south (Lincoln and Omaha) high temperatures should only reach the lower 90s.
Sunday is expected to be dry (for almost everyone) and quite a bit warmer for our CWA as upper ridging pushes a little farther into our area from the central CONUS. Given rising low level thicknesses, temps should be a good 6 to 9 degrees warmer than today, which will put most areas in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Insolation and warm advection on the flank of Wrn CONUS-Midwest ridging will drive afternoon highs a couple degrees above the averages.
High pressure has built in across the region behind the stalled frontal boundary laying across south GA this morning. This ridge of high pressure will keep things dry across north and central GA today but it is expected to begin weakening tonight. The stalled frontal boundary will begin to make its way back north as a warm front starting Monday which will increase moisture across central portions of the state.
While warm today, it hasn't felt too oppressive with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Winds will gradually shift to more southerly by Sunday as the ridge shifts eastward. Tomorrow, July 4th, will be a degree or two warmer, but will still be a great day given the lower humidity values.
225 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The state remains caught between the H5 ridge centered on the Four Corners, and the main storm track along and just north of the Canadian border. With the ridge having lesser of an impact of capping, thunderstorm activity will again be able to bubble up along the higher elevations of northwest WY during peak heating, then drift east through the evening. The H5 ridge will be nudging slightly to the east on Monday, but this will open the door for an increase in Pacific moisture across the state. Along with this will be a developing trough, which will sweep across WY during the afternoon. Increased cloud coverage will help keep temperatures lower Monday, with highs limited to the low to mid 80s.
342 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The region is currently under the influence of an upper high situated over the Mid MS Valley and a low level anticyclone centered in southern IL. The aforementioned slowly retreating low level anticyclone will result produce south- southwest low level flow and warmer temperatures today with highs generally in the 85-90 degree range. /Canadian border and our area will largely be a weak col region aloft, with south- southwest low level flow courtesy of the anticyclone centered in the TN Valley region. Seasonably warm temperatures will be the main story and they should be a few degrees warmer than today and humidity will also begin slowly inching upward as well.
Dew points in the low/mid 60s will make it feel even warmer.
A large high pressure system located to the west will continue to maintain dry and clear conditions. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 92 70 90 / 0 0 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 92 69 92 / 0 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 63 91 66 90 / 0 10 20 0 10.
Will continue to see high pressure centered just east of the area through tonight then shift into the Tennessee Valley on Monday.
With a ridge in the middle of the country and a deep trough near the Atlantic seaboard, the Quad State has northerly flow today at upper-levels which has kept conditions cooler than average along with fairly low dew points. As the ridge builds into the Midwest on Monday, and surface flow takes on a more southerly component, temperatures will continue to increase, with highs Monday in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.
The high pressure that was overhead yesterday has moved off to the east, with a weak southerly breeze developing in response. With the upper trough nearby, still can't completely rule out a weak shower or storm in far western counties this evening or overnight, but have reduced PoPs below 15%.
Light southeasterly winds through mid Sunday morning as cloud cover increases as a mid level trough digs down the longwave ridge to the west. Temperatures will start a little mild in the upper 60s before an even warmer afternoon with more ample warm air advection from the south pushing into the upper 80s to lower 90s further west and north into the CWA.
249 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Winds have slackened a little across the James valley, and turned westwards as a pre-frontal trough has set up by Mobridge. Afternoon humidity with the lower dewpoints will drop into the teens for the James valley and points west. Dry air in the low levels remains as well, but we could see convection drift in from around a ridge to the west.
The only exception will be across the north and northeast zones where lows will fall into the middle and upper 60s due to less cloud coverage and dew points in the lower and middle 60s.
GOES total PW imagery indicates a fairly tight PW gradient across SE TX, with the highest values of 2.
/Issued 243 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021/ Stalled frontal boundary is situated across south/south central GA, with a sprawling high pressure centered across the middle of the country. The old frontal boundary should remain nearly stationary through the period, possibly pushing just a little further south as the high center builds eastward through tomorrow. Both of these scenarios,in conjunction with an upper level trough and SW mid level flow, will lead to increased PoP chances mid week through the rest of the extended.
High pressure was to the south and west of central Indiana. Aloft, an upper ridge was building in from the west. Some high clouds will spill around the ridge. Highs will top out around 90, but it will feel more like the middle 90s thanks to the higher dewpoints. High pressure will remain in control tonight and for much of Monday, with the upper ridge nearby as well.
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The surface map at 05Z shows a high pressure cell centered over southeast MO. The ridge at 5h will remain in place over middle TN into Monday, but will be weakening.
/JNE/ Come Monday, the region will be sandwiched between upper ridging to the west and a departing trough to the east.
302 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 North to northwest flow aloft continues today as a broad upper high pressure system remains over the Four Corners region. Convection will likely initiate over the higher terrain of eastern NM and then track southeastward into the FA during the latter part of the evening. Northerly flow aloft will remain in place across the region on Monday as upper level ridging extends across the Central Plains.
High temperatures around 90 today will gradually increase to the lower to mid 90s on Monday. A frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast combined with a weak upper-trough could support diurnally driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms across portions of deep east Texas and west-central Louisiana both today and Monday.
As a ridge of high pressure remains overhead through Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected overnight with lows about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, mainly in the 60s. As a result, heat indices will approach the lower to middle 90s.
That being said, there is a weak upper trough moving through the area, which may be enhanced by remnant outflow or MCV features, therefore a slight chance of thunder was added to most of the area late tonight into Sunday morning. Monday evening and overnight, a few showers and thunderstorms could move into northern portions of the forecast area as an upper trough pushes to our north.
We remain under the influence of the deep layer ridge which is bringing large scale subsidence.
The H500 pattern will feature a deep trough, moving Ewrd, over the New England region with an amplifying ridge, retrograding Wwrd, invof of the Four Corners region. Some newer model data suggests an upper low could develop along the TX/LA coastline. Regardless, this low will have little impact on AR weather other than enhancing low-level SErly rich moisture flux beginning late Monday. Near the surface, high pressure will remain situated just to the NE of the region providing Erly winds to much of AR. Monday night, overnight lows will be significantly warmer with lows only falling into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
Aloft, upper level ridging will build into the Quad State region early this week.
A cold front develops to the northwest of the forecast area.
620 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Monday with mostly clear skies.
1041 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Monday keeping dry weather in place and skies mostly clear.
Next wave to approach the forecast area is currently over ID moving into western MT ahead of large scale trof along Pacific coast. Surface trof extends from eastern ND across central SD with high pressure over high plains, although weak pressure gradient has light and variable winds. Low pressure will deepen over eastern MT with winds becoming southeast, bringing higher dewpoints into northeastern WY again and providing low level convergence for a chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon and early evening when CAPE increases to 1000-2000 j/kg.
/issued 530 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ Westerly flow aloft continues over our area this morning south of E CONUS troughing, while at the surface a stationary boundary is draped across the panhandle and northern Gulf states. Weak surface ridging extends over the peninsula from the W Atlantic and will gradually retreat E over the coming days as Tropical Storm Elsa emerges in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, a very weak trough aloft will keep our weather seasonally dry and very warm inland, while coastal areas are moderated by a cool sea breeze with marine clouds at times. This seasonal early July weather will slowly warm well inland later in the week, under building high pressure aloft, while a shallow marine layer continues to moderate the coast. Slightly cooler weather is on tap for Independence Day west of the mountains, but overall, little change from yesterday. SoCal will be in a static weather pattern with low pressure well off the Coast and high pressure centered near the Four Corners area of the Southwest, and a very weak upper trough just off the SoCal Coast.
Monday: Temps are hot but there is a downward trend as ridge will have flattened and surface pattern will tend to support easterly BL flow into the early afternoon.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer this afternoon as higher heights build in from the west. Temperatures will drop quickly into the low to mid 70s after sunset making it an excellent evening for any outdoor plans. The ridge at 5h will remain in place over middle TN into Monday, but will be weakening.
639 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Weather has remained quiet throughout the overnight across the region, thanks to deep layer ridging in place. Deep layer ridging will hold in place today and as such, have nudged PoPs down to 10 percent. This combined with some lift in the lower levels may be enough to trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening.
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure with warmer and drier air starts building in today and continues into Monday.
530 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Westerly flow aloft continues over our area this morning south of E CONUS troughing, while at the surface a stationary boundary is draped across the panhandle and northern Gulf states. Weak surface ridging extends over the peninsula from the W Atlantic and will gradually retreat E over the coming days as Tropical Storm Elsa emerges in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
609 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 A trough is currently working its way southeast across the area. A warm front will move east across the area this afternoon through tonight as the associated low tracks east across James Bay.
942 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure with warmer and drier air starts building in today and continues into Monday.
a small closed upper low center embedded within its trough over the northeast and eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning is forecast to slowly move south into central Kansas this afternoon. To our west there appears to be sufficient moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving off the Cheyenne Ridge and/or Palmer Divide this afternoon to support a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across parts of far eastern Colorado and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures are again expected to be in the 90 to 95 degree range with lows in the low to upper 60s.
Winds have slackened a little across the James Valley, and turned westwards as a pre-frontal trough has set up by Mobridge. Afternoon humidity with the lower dewpoints will drop into the teens for the James valley and points west. Dry air in the low levels remains as well, but we could see convection drift in from around a ridge to the west.
1033 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will continue across the forecast area today. High pressure has built in across the region behind the stalled frontal boundary laying across south GA this morning. This ridge of high pressure will keep things dry across north and central GA today but it is expected to begin weakening tonight. The stalled frontal boundary will begin to make its way back north as a warm front starting Monday which will increase moisture across central portions of the state.