Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SKC conds will be overtaken by mid/high clouds from S to N as a warm front lifts Nwrd. Today Through Wednesday Night Weather across AR was quiet this morning between two synoptic scale upper troughs.
With all the clouds/pcpn expected through Wednesday, temperatures will likely be around or a little below normal, except for tonight where plenty of clouds will hold up the lows.
Showers will linger into Wednesday with a passing trough.
This boundary will move back north over the region overnight as a warm front.
Moisture return is underway across the Plains in response to low pressure out west. The tail end of a frontal boundary laid out by the previous storm is retreating north as a warm front today across TX. The deeper moisture will be a bit slow to return north today, but still expect dewpoints in the low/mid 60s later this afternoon.
Line of storms expected to organize to the west along a cold front that pushes into western Oklahoma tonight.
145 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A nearly stacked low pressure over Colorado this afternoon looks to track across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota Wednesday with a wide precipitation band moving through eastern Montana tonight and Wednesday.
159 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Cooler air arrives today. A cold front is still making its way across the forecast area from west to east this morning, accompanied by weakening rain showers. Showers will continue to diminish today, but with the low moving slowly northeastward over Lake Michigan, wrap around moisture will facilitate significant cloud cover and a few lingering showers, especially to the north. Cooler air can also be expected, but temperatures will still be above normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Brief high pressure ridging will be over the region going into Wednesday, and temperatures will warm into the mid 70s again, with a warm front bringing a low chance for showers Wednesday evening.
At the surface, predominantly easterly winds are occurring with temperatures on the warmer side of climatology in the upper 60s and lower 70s. In the developing warm sector, a strong LLJ is already in place with upward vertical motion provided by the lifting trough leading to a push of showers and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Kansas. After the initial push of the elevated showers and thunderstorms, high res CAMs are showing redevelopment along the cold front shortly after sunrise. This suggests there there will be a brief (1-3 hour) window where given the high shear low cape environment and veering winds near central South Dakota, there is a conditional chance for a surface-based low-topped supercell or two with a non-zero tornado threat, which is covered nicely by the marginal risk from SPC.
Lee troughing and strong gradient flow continue to advect deeper moisture north with near 60 dewpoints now close to the southwestern KS and OK panhandle region. Meanwhile, the synoptic cold front resides generally along the front range of the Rockies into New Mexico. This is forecast to continue to sharpen and advance east as the upper low lifts northeast and becomes negatively tilted. As the trough lifts into the northern plains and central Canada, a broad western trough remains in place along the spine of the Rockies.
As this low approaches expect rain to begin tonight in southwest and west central Minnesota. The highest rain totals will be farther west in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota near the border with the Dakotas as those areas will have stronger forcing closer to the center of the low. Expect a cooler night behind this system with lows in the 40s.
340 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 High pressure slides east of New England tonight while weakening low pressure and a decaying cold front scoots by to our north tonight and Wednesday. A stronger high pressure system will build over the Appalachians late this week accompanied by above normal daytime temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
Strong low pressure still on track for Wednesday through Wednesday night with plentiful rain. Remnant cloud cover from departing low pressure will still affect the forecast area tonight, even though high pressure will build across the Northland overnight. The strong area of low pressure is still progged to affect the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with gusty winds, rain, and a few thunderstorms.
An anomalously cold upper level low continues to track across the Desert Southwest early this morning with the low center across northern Arizona. The associated cold front has already swept through most of Arizona with winds diminishing fairly quickly behind the front. The NAEFS mean 700mb and 850mb temperatures are near record low for the climo period across a good portion of Arizona and this will help to keep daytime highs today at around 70 degrees for the bulk of the lower deserts, or around 20 degrees below normal. Lows tonight for rural desert locations in the mid to upper 40s are likely with the urban center of Phoenix more likely in the lower 50s.
251 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Dry conditions have taken over across the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of a stalling cold front currently positioned west of the I-65 corridor. Drier air steered by flow from the Appalachians will make for a fairly pleasant and mild short term forecast, as high pressure builds over the FL Panhandle and a closed upper low slides northeast over the northern Plains.
315 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 High pressure slides east of New England tonight while weakening low pressure and a decaying cold front scoots by to our north tonight and Wednesday. A stronger high pressure system will build over the Appalachians late this week accompanied by above normal daytime temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
240 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Clouds will gradually decrease through tonight and it will be notably cooler. This, and a brief episode of cold air advection, will allow lows to fall into the low-50s; likely our coldest lows so far this month but still well above normal. Mild air returns on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a large cyclone lifting northeast through the Central Plains. A warm front moves into our area late in the afternoon offering a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
139 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Upper level ridging extends from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the eastern seaboard, while an upper low sits off the southeast coast of Florida between the Bahamas and Cuba. On the surface, broad high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states continues to ridge southwest of Florida. This dry air will limit shower and storm activity through the week with only a 20-40 percent chance each day with the highest chances over the interior and southwest Florida.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Wednesday with the very warm conditions continuing. /15/ The upper ridge will continue to remain elongated across our region at the start of the period.
Moisture wrapping around the low, now positioned over the straits, will continue to stream into the region through much of the night with an added boost from moisture off Lake MI. A cold front will wrap east/northeast through the area this morning around low pressure tracking from the western to northern Great Lakes. A few additional showers may linger into afternoon over far northern portions of the forecast area as wraparound moisture around the base of the low pressure brushes the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday in the wake of this cold front, but still rather mild for mid October with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Discussion: A weakening cold front associated with a low pressure system in the Great Lakes region continues to meander across central TN. Overnight lows will typically be around 60 degrees(F) - a degree or two warmer in the southern valley and a degree or two cooler in SW VA. Model derived soundings show some of the low level moisture lingering overnight and into the early morning on Wednesday so there is the potential for some fog. Additionally, subsidence associated with the high pressure will act to keep the region dry through Wednesday.
Coleman, Concho, Sutton counties have been added to the Flash South winds were stronger than expected today due to a strong lee trough, and a wind advisory has been issued for the Big Country and Concho Valley until 1 AM CDT. Otherwise, main heart of the forecast hasn't changed very much, as the cold front moves into the area, stalls, and then the remnants of Pamela come out over the top. Given that these are tropical remnants and precipitable water values are very high, still think the higher end values have a decent chance of occurring. Would also not be surprised for some even higher amounts, given how the low level jet increases to over 40 knots at times up and over the boundary.
Significant negative 500-mb height anomalies are associated with the trough/closed low moving northeastward through the central Rockies late today. The low-level response is quite significant and impressive with a broad and strong low-level jet quickly modifying the atmosphere with strong moisture advection.
Morning observations show temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s across the area with a dense mid-level stratus deck present ahead of a cold front entering NW AL.
An upper level ridge of high pressure otherwise remains dominant across our area this afternoon.
They may trend slightly cooler than currently forecasted if clouds thicken quicker in the west and the cooler north-northeasterly flow persists longer in our east thanks to sfc ridging. With all the clouds/pcpn expected through Wednesday, temperatures will likely be around or a little below normal, except for tonight where plenty of clouds will hold up the lows.
A north- to-south oriented cold front over W Tennessee will continue to meander eastward as it washes out. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 64 84 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 63 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 81 63 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 79 57 82 59 / 0 10 0 0 0.
Strong east to southeast flow ahead of the low is expected to get going tonight into Wednesday morning. Timing of a wind advisory headline is a bit tricky with low pressure tracking over the western half of our CWA during the daytime.
308 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A weak trough along Hwy 20 was causing stubborn low stratus to remain in place for much of the day. Mid afternoon temps ranged from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. A potent low will track through the Dakotas into northwest MN with gusty southeast winds bringing increasing moisture as a warm front lifts to the north.
Weak high pressure will result in dry weather and lower humidity today. Later tonight, low trop WAA sets back up in response to deep low pressure over the northern Plains creating broad scale southerly flow from the Gulf up across the MS Valley region. Late in the night, tonight and through the day Wednesday as a warm front lifts northeast across the area, we will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Speaking of tomorrow, it does look like we'll see some showers as a warm front pulls northward through the region. Rainfall totals should be meager, but the additional cloud cover that will come with the warm front could wreak havoc with my forecast highs tomorrow. I'm going to hold firm to the belief that the ridging influences and southerly flow warm us into the low to mid 80s, but if the light rainfall ends up lasting a little longer than currently thought, we may struggle to get to 80.
Gusty southerly winds will also be common tonight for all sites along with low level wind shear as the low level jet kicks up later tonight across NE OK. Line of storms expected to organize to the west along a cold front that pushes into western Oklahoma tonight.
303 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The center of upper low is currently over southwestern Utah. The snowfall was slow to get going over the high mountains through today. In the lower levels there is an elongated circulation just east of Fort Morgan to south central Elbert County. Models show the upper low center to track into the far southwest corner of Nebraska by 06Z tonight. For winds, will leave the High Wind Warning going over the Palmer Ridge through 6 PM this evening. Will up the High Wind Watch to a Warning over the northern foothills from 06Z to 18Z based on the a decent mountain top stable layer, strong subsidence and a pretty strong low level pressure gradient expected.
An associated weak low level trough is aligned just west of the Florida Keys. The air mass aloft surrounding the Keys continues to remain relatively dry due to subsident air around the western periphery of the low wrapping into the Keys.
A warming trend after today through the weekend is expected due to high pressure moving over the area. A cold start to this Tuesday as freezing temperatures were observed over much of the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains. While even the San Joaquin Valley had chilly conditions, the freezing was only able to reach the lower foothills. The exception was the thermal belt where slightly warmer temperatures exist on most cold night.
KBYX is also detecting isolated showers in the Gulf Waters north of the Lower Keys. Water vapor imagery highlights the associated mid- upper level trough to the east of our area over the Bahamas, which has gradually been weakening over the past 24 hours. Light to gentle breezes will continue to prevail through the middle of the week, then high pressure will settle across the southeast U.
340 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A strong low pressure system, currently located over Colorado, will continue to move northeastward crossing the forecast area on Wednesday. As the system moves into western South Dakota on Wednesday morning the surface pressure gradient will tighten and cold advection to the west of the low will lead to the development of strong and gusty winds over the plains of western South Dakota. Mainly dry weather is expected for the end of the week with a return to near average temperatures as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Left other highlights intact, though will likely end the high wind warning for all but the far eastern plains in the next hour if wind speeds continue to decrease. As the trough continues to move eastward, the high winds on the plains will decrease during the evening. Will keep the high wind and red flag warnings out to 8PM. The strong trough moves to the northeast of the region with dry westerly flow over the region.
Otherwise, temperatures remain on track for another warmer than normal night. Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Wednesday with the very warm conditions continuing. /15/ The upper ridge will continue to remain elongated across our region at the start of the period.
638 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 High pressure slides east of New England tonight while weakening low pressure and a decaying cold front scoots by to our north tonight and Wednesday. A stronger high pressure system will build over the Appalachians late this week accompanied by above normal daytime temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
A strong low pressure system, currently located over Colorado, will continue to move northeastward crossing the forecast area on Wednesday. As the system moves into western South Dakota on Wednesday morning the surface pressure gradient will tighten and cold advection to the west of the low will lead to the development of strong and gusty winds over the plains of western South Dakota. Mainly dry weather is expected for the end of the week with a return to near average temperatures as an upper ridge builds over the area.
In the wake of the current storm, freezing temperatures are likely Wednesday morning for much of the region above 4,000 feet. Mundane, cool fall weather will return later in the week and with warmer conditions by the weekend. The current low pressure system will move to the east overnight. With lighter winds and a cold/drier air mass it is expected that radiational cooling will result in widespread freezing temperatures at elevations above 4000 feet.
A surface cold front associated with that feature is forecast to approach NWRN CA this evening/tonight and aid in rainfall totals at or below a tenth of an inch across portions of Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.
851 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern seaboard the rest of this week.
Dry conditions have taken over across the Tennessee Valley in vicinity of a stalling cold front currently positioned west of the I-65 corridor. Drier air steered by flow from the Appalachians will make for a fairly pleasant and mild short term forecast, as high pressure builds over the FL Panhandle and a closed upper low slides northeast over the northern Plains.
735 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Clouds will gradually decrease through tonight and it will be notably cooler. This, and a brief episode of cold air advection, will allow lows to fall into the low-50s; likely our coldest lows so far this month but still well above normal. Mild air returns on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a large cyclone lifting northeast through the Central Plains. A warm front moves into our area late in the afternoon offering a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Model data suggest upper ridging will reestablish itself across the Ohio Valley during this period, as another strong short wave trough ejects into the northern Plains by Wednesday night. Extrapolation and short term model data indicate the low cloud deck will gradually scatter out from the southwest over the course of the rest of the afternoon, reaching the far northeast zones this evening. Some concern for fog development later tonight, as it is possible that the low cloud deck may not clear out fast enough this afternoon for mixing out of the dewpoints. Otherwise, a warm advection pattern will develop by Wednesday and Wednesday night locally, ahead of next Plains trough. At this time, it appears the stronger advection pattern/better precipitation threat will remain off to the northwest of the local area, closer to the axis of the low level jet.
A weak trough along Hwy 20 was causing stubborn low stratus to remain in place for much of the day. Mid afternoon temps ranged from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. A potent low will track through the Dakotas into northwest MN with gusty southeast winds bringing increasing moisture as a warm front lifts to the north.
An anomalously cold upper level low continues to track across the 4- corners region this afternoon with the low center now beginning to lift out to the northeast at this hour. The associated cold front has now moved into NM with a very cool airmass now in place across AZ. These anomalies are cold enough to support lows tonight for rural desert locations in the low to mid 40s, with the urban center of Phoenix more likely in the lower 50s.
A nearly stacked low pressure over Colorado this afternoon looks to track across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota Wednesday with a wide precipitation band moving through eastern Montana tonight and Wednesday.
1058 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern seaboard the rest of this week.
Otherwise, expect clouds to increase overall with lows in the lower 60s east to middle to upper 60s west. Drier air steered by flow from the Appalachians will make for a fairly pleasant and mild short term forecast, as high pressure builds over the FL Panhandle and a closed upper low slides northeast over the northern Plains.
Meanwhile a low level area of low pressure located in the 850-700 mb layer sits across western Cuba and is drifting west southwest. This low is aiding in providing some low level vorticity and additional moisture within the southeast flow.
300 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The upper air pattern this morning was highly amplified with a compact energetic low near the NE Panhandle, and a strong ridge across the Gulf Coast and southeast U. Return southerly flow was well underway over the lower MS Valley region into TX, OK and KS in association with deep low pressure over west NE. Through the day, as the storm system over the Plains moves northeast, a warm front will lift northeast across our area, with weak impulses running SW/NE in the mean flow aloft.
143 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Dry and warm high pressure will remain in place through late this week.
224 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A line of thunderstorms along a Pacific cold front moving across the eastern parts of the forecast area early this morning will sweep east of the forecast area before sunrise. Surface winds will then keep a westerly component through the day as a Canadian cold front remains to the north of the region, a result of the parent upper low being well to our north and lifting to the northeast. Pamela will stream across northern Mexico today, getting caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft downstream from a broad trough axis over the intermountain west.
Toss in ample radiational cooling due to mostly clear skies, and we get a forecast for near freezing temperatures tonight in northeast Nebraska.
Temperatures cooled off a little in the north tonight, with most in the low 50s, but remain in the 60s for the southern parts of the forecast area. Showers and storms continue to approach from the west, ahead of a weak cold front. This is the case today, as another potent wave passes off to our northwest, dragging a weak cold front through our forecast area today.
The surface cold front moves across the area from west to east through the morning and early afternoon, keeping highs in the mid to upper 60s toward central KS with low to mid 70s further east. The upper low associated with the current system moves north toward the Upper Midwest, while broad troughing remains over the western CONUS and the surface boundary hangs around southeast KS into western MO.
930 PM PDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A chilly night will occur under clear skies and low humidity, with near freezing temperatures likely in parts of the Apple and Lucerne Valleys.
Cold front still on track to push through tonight with low clouds developing behind it for Friday. However, still can't rule out an isold aftn shower or storm, over the higher terrain, south of I-70. For tonight, a cold front will move across the plains with easterly low level flow developing. The cold front passing through Thursday night will lead to much cooler temperatures for Friday. Middle Park may end up being the warm spot in the CWA with highs in the low to mid 60s.
(This evening through Friday) Expanding upper low to our west continues its retrograde back toward Arizona and NW Old Mexico with assistance from a broadening trough across the northern Plains states and Great Lakes.
240 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front moves through on Friday bringing below normal temperatures and a small chance for rain. A cold front will cross the region during the day Friday bringing light rain to the area with accumulations between a trace and a tenth of an inch. Much cooler air will move in behind the front with locations across SE OH not moving very much during the day as they remain in the 50s in cold advection, while farther southeast where the front arrives last, temperatures should be able to poke up into the mid 60s. A ridge of high pressure builds behind the front bringing cooler and drier conditions throughout the upcoming weekend.
412 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Shower chances return Friday with much cooler temperatures through the weekend.
(Through Friday) Fair and dry weather will continue through Friday as a broad trough remains in place aloft and high pressure holds at the surface.
346 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Summary: Noticeably cooler and breezy, but a slow warm up on the way while keeping fairly dry. An early season arctic air mass is in the process of settling over the region today bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.
129 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Weak surface ridging over the southeast US will keep our weather tranquil with light west to northwest winds.