Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
640 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.
517 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS GENERATED SOME SHALLOW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY BUT HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY. STEERING FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH IS VEERED AND WEAKER. WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A SLOW WARMING TREND APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS AS THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER GRADUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY DRIES OUT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DIFFLUENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL FOCUS THE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 8 INCH OUT OF YUMA/ NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THOUGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EVIDENT AND IN FAIR LOCATION THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
309 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN FL COAST ACCOMPANIED WITH AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO MIGRATE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TODAY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90. BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE AIR.
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET FOR REACHING CENTRAL NV MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE UT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. AND SOME BLOWING SNOW AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. SMALL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS SMALL PATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOST MODELS ARE INSISTENT WILL TRAVERSE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY FOR PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SUB FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE 12Z.
CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SLOWLY TO SWLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.
Expect partly cloudy skies tonight with low temps in the low to mid 30s.
SO HAVE WENT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
I JUST DONT KNOW IF ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL FORM IN WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW NOW JUST PASSING REGINA SK. CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRIZZLE AND OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE TIMING AND LIGHT SNOW WITH FROPA TOMORROW. AREAS WHERE IT DOES DEVELOP MAY CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL.
629 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
616 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.
652 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 334 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING CHILLY AND FLUCTUATING AROUND FREEZING FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS OF THE EVENT. HAVE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DIPPING TO A MINIMUM JUST BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RISE THAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMES MORE PROMINENT TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN I CURRENTLY THINK WILL HAPPEN WE MAY HAVE TO ACT WITH AN ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN.
948 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. AND FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS CIRRUS SPILL OVER APPROACHING RIDGE.
THUS ADJUSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS ALONG/W OF I-55 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE E. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 30S EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO SOME PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH CONTINUE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST. GIVING WAY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK AS THE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED OVER THE REGION.
while the low level moisture makes its way into the CWA. These conditions combined with southerly winds remaining in the 5 to 15 mph range will help to keep temps much warmer during the night with expected lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL HOLD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING OVER OUR AREA. THAT THE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH. A RIDGE AXIS CONNECTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS IN A CAD FASHION. SO LOOK FOR HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY (MID 50S).
Steady southerly winds persist around 20 to 30 mph ahead of the low, with dry surface conditions. While temperatures will still be fairly mild through the day on Wednesday the low levels will remain saturated enough to bring some light drizzle or perhaps even some very light rain through the day time hours on Wednesday.
644 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL RH INCREASING/DEEPENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LAYER BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST US TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST AND OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
HAVE REWORKED TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE GRID MAINLY IN ORDER TO INCREASE VALUES WEST OF NASHVILLE GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED THERE THIS EVENING. UNGER /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/ FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. BREEZY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEP LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH COOLER TEMPS AND EVEN GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEATHER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME INFREQUENT LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
/ISSUED 159 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ITS AXIS NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP YET AS THE RIDGE IS STILL VERY STRONG AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH WED MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL KEEP ALL MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE.
327 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015 ALL IS QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEDNESDAY ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WE HAVE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM OREGON TODAY TO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CREEPS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER ARE ALL WARMER THAN -10C. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START THIS EVENT. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TIL LATE MORNING THANKSGIVING.
PATCHY -DZ WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
417 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
947 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
Radar trends show snow showers dwindling in these areas and many areas below 3000 feet did not receive much in the way of snow today due to temperatures in the lower to mid 30s. As the closed low off the southern OR and northern CA coast continues to drop south, the trend will continue to be decreasing precipitation as drier north-northeast winds overtake the region. In general in these well mixed N-NE winds cases MOS guidance does a much better job with the low temperatures. For this reason low temps were warmed into the lower to mid 20s for Omak and Sandpoint tonight.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. SO HAVE WENT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
632 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STOUT LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 20-25KTS.
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL SWING INTO CNTRL NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1007 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
637 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
945 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
557 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 High pressure is dominating the weather across the eastern half of the country this afternoon. As the ridge axis slips further to the east, the winds are becoming more southerly. A steady southerly flow will develop across central IL Wednesday in response to gradients between high pressure centered over New England and developing low pressure over the central-northern Plains.
This warmer and more moist southerly flow will keep overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night, with most locations expected to stay above freezing. High pressure is dominating the weather across the eastern half of the country this afternoon. As the ridge axis slips further to the east, the winds are becoming more southerly. A steady southerly flow will develop across central IL Wednesday in response to gradients between high pressure centered over New England and developing low pressure over the central-northern Plains.
644 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE SLIDING UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT LIKE THIS MORNING. WITH FULL SUN AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE TO BUMP UP HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH-WEST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE ABOVE 10C ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND ABOVE 5C ACROSS NE/WESTERN IA AND SOUTHWESTWARD. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE AND ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
956 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT. AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
815 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 TODAY SERVED AS A TRANSITION DAY TOWARD WARMER SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. NE FLOW BROUGHT IN SOME STRATOCU OFF THE ATLANTIC TODAY WHICH ALSO HELPED IN MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RUN SOME 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN WY/SWRN SD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BEING LOCATED FROM NERN MONTANA TO THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEVADA UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON LEFT EXIT REGION OF 110KT JET.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONE ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO GET BEFORE STALLING OUT.
The cold front which has brought the heaviest precipitation is pushing through the northern Sierra and will exit eastward by early evening.
307 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE LOW ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE LOW ALONG THE COAST.
Low-level moisture will begin to increase as ridging in that layer begins to erode.
/ISSUED 306 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND GULF INFLOW HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED INTO CENTRAL TX TODAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH SPINNING OVER DESERT SW WILL ADDITIONAL PICK UP MOISTURE FROM T. STG BUT VERY SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT WILL BE QUASI STNRY AS BOUNDARY RESTS UNDER DEEP SW FLOW. DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUGGEST RAINFALL MAY ALSO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REX BLOCK IS CREATING THIS SLOW MOVG UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT WITH ONLY THE ECMWF AS A POSSIBLE FASTER MOVG OUTLIER INCLUDING AN EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN.
933 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL HOLD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING OVER OUR AREA. THAT THE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH. RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A RIDGE AXIS CONNECTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS IN A CAD FASHION. SO LOOK FOR HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY (MID 50S).
THE LOW WILL THEN STALL OVER NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAIN BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TAHOE AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF TAHOE LATER TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME SHEAR AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONG AT RIDGE LEVEL, SO DO NOT EXPECT A BIG EVENT, MAYBE A FEW INCHES AT BEST. FURTHER NORTH, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA, SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LOW NEARBY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS OVERALL.
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRIZZLE AND OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE TIMING AND LIGHT SNOW WITH FROPA TOMORROW. AREAS WHERE IT DOES DEVELOP MAY CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH BY EVENING, WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z AND RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY REPLACES THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE LAST WEEK. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAGGING ALL OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS US START TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RAINS SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END TODAY AS THE ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-STATE AND IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH EVEN SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS WEST OF A 7H RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
The 12 UTC surface analysis shows a non-tropical area of low pressure off the South Carolina Coast with a frontal zone extending northeastward along the coast into the Mid Atlantic. Aloft, the upper low is now centered just east of Tallahasee.
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION UP TO 850MB BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE OVER THE RIDGES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE RIDGES TO THE FAR WEST.
Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around the very slow moving southeast US upper low.
SFC WINDS WILL KEEP N/NE 5-15 KTS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SFC. /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE A RETURN TO OUR REGION. THE SE COAST UPPER LOW WILL DEPART AND THE CA LOW IS FCST TO MOVE INTO W TX FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING MUCH TO OUR REGION.
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS EAST OF ARKANSAS. A FEW BREAKS MAY BE SEEN DURING THE DAY BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
920 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.
AND ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 62 78 58 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 59 77 56 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 59 77 55 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 55 75 50 / 10 10 20 10 NC.