Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
552 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. Drier and cooler air continues to advect into the region. Gusty winds between 25 to 30 kt will continue to diminish into tonight as the pressure gradient weakens between the departing low and incoming high pressure. Expecting a few locations to the north and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island to approach the freezing mark or even a few degrees below.
219 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Mean upper level pattern will continue to favor active NW flow with the sfc cyclone track over the region. Have sided with the cooler side of guidance. Warmer conds expected Tue as return flow ensues ahead of the next low. Frontal boundary will trend back north again toward the end of the week as the the next expected sfc cyclone develops and WAA ensues.
If precipitation reaches the surface, accumulations are not expected due to very light snowfall rates and temperatures near or slightly above freezing. After the wave departs, downslope flow to the west will warm the low- levels.
A high pressure system at the surface will become centered over north FL overnight. However, much of the NWP guidance, including some of the MOS, only have lows reaching the lower to mid 40s. Elsewhere lows will be in the lower to mid 40s, except upper 40s in the larger cities.
Cold air advection is underway as upper low pivots across the Great Lakes region. It is possible that there could be some clearing in our far southern CWA, so didn't raise temps much above guidance far south, where lows probably will dip below freezing. The areas most prone to dipping below freezing tonight already saw colder temps and a freeze over the weekend, so not planning any freeze headlines for tonight.
330 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
Drew the highest POPS/QPF over those counties that will experience the greatest 24 hour moisture flux. Halloween maximum temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 70s up north (overcast and rain). afternoon still remaining warmer middle to upper 70s further south.
An elevated cold front has also pushed south of the local area, with broad ascent supporting light precipitation this morning now weakening. Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the evening and overnight as temperatures steadily cool this evening, eventually dropping below freezing overnight. Aside from cooler than normal temperatures, also monitoring the potential for a few light sprinkles and perhaps flurries as a weak long-wave trough advances over the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Britt The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified trough across much of the eastern CONUS. Given the low-levels should moisten a bit this morning along/behind a surface cold front moving through the region and the strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent moving overhead, went ahead and added in some slight chance pops later this morning over northeast MO/west-central IL. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler than Monday within the cooler post-frontal air mass, but lows on Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer compared to Monday night due to increased cloud cover and possible precipitation across the southeastern CWA near the boundary. A southerly component to the surface flow will allow the stalled boundary to begin lifting northward as a warm front into MO/IL.
high pressure will continue to build southeastward across the central US. Expect lows in the low to upper teens. The coldest locations will be along the Platte River valley and Pine Ridge region.
1126 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A band of snow and light freezing drizzle tracked across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle early this morning, and has pushed south of the WY-CO border per the latest KCYS radar loop.
339 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Colder weather is moving into the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through earlier today. The highest rain chances and amounts still look to be across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
236 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 As of mid afternoon, surface analysis revealed a cold front stretched right along the Ohio River between Indiana and Kentucky. Satellite imagery showed mostly sunny skies prevailed as well ahead of the front, and readings ranged from the lower 60s across southern Kentucky to the upper 40s across southern Indiana. Cold air advection and clearing skies will put overnight lows down into the lower 30s for most locations. On Tuesday, the day will start off mostly sunny as high pressure quickly moves overhead. Trick-or-treaters will need to bundle up tomorrow evening for their outdoor activities as readings fall into the low/mid 40s during the evening then reaching the 30s overnight.
529 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. These showers are associated with a cold front which is moving towards the area. Temperatures should be cold enough tonight for some of the precipitation in the highest elevations to fall as a rain/snow mix. High pressure will being to nose into the region on Tuesday resulting in dry conditions along with lots of sunshine by afternoon.
/issued 327 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move slowly east today and be over the Florida Peninsula tonight into Tuesday. The high is then expected to move east into the Atlantic waters by the middle to end of this week.
The cold front and wind shift have passed by all TAF sites, with the strongest gusts noted across northeast Oklahoma. /Issued 1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Cold front extends from central Arkansas through southeast Oklahoma this morning, with gusty north winds behind it.
While much of the convection is expected to be in shower form, and approaching cold front along with CAPE above 1000 j/kg could provide substantial instability and lift for some thunderstorms to develop. Expect temperatures tomorrow a bit cooler than today with cold front in the vicinity, more moisture and cloud cover.
High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny but cool conditions.
317 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Low pressure over New England continues to progress away from the Mid-Atlantic region today, relaxing winds and clearing skies. Weak high pressure will cover the southeast United States Monday afternoon, as a fading frontal boundary works its way into the area Tuesday before stalling just South of us Tuesday Night.
1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An upper level trough will continue to plunge southward into the Northern Plains for today, bringing much cooler air and windy conditions to the region. Tuesday will be another cold day, though some warming will be realized over south central SD as winds transition to southwesterly due to surface ridging sliding to the east.
Overnight a cold front is forecast to push south across Central Texas. An upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes is forcing a cold front south across the Plains and currently extends from northeastern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle to Central Oklahoma while a compact upper level low is moving onshore into southern California. Temperatures are starting off much warmer early this morning than yesterday morning. Expect the front to move into the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country this evening, cross the Highway 90 and I-35 Escarpment areas late evening into the overnight hours, then move into Southern Texas early Tuesday morning where it eventually stalls. In the wake of the frontal passage, isentropic lift develops with a warm advection pattern due to moist southerly flow above the frontal surface while the compact upper level low approaches Western Texas.
If precipitation reaches the surface, accumulations are not expected due to very light snowfall rates and temperatures near or slightly above freezing. After the wave departs, upslope flow to the west will warm the low-levels.
Southwest winds ahead of the low should warm things into the 40s most areas. Thener trough broadens afterwards and sharpens over the Pacific NW over the weekend.
248 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Low pressure over New England continues to progress away from the Mid-Atlantic region today, relaxing winds and clearing skies. Weak h high pressure will cover the southeast United States Monday afternoon, as a fading frontal boundary works its way into the area Tuesday before stalling just South of us Tuesday Night.
157 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An approaching weak cold front will stall and dissipate. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. Temperatures continue to slowly moderate, with highs still on track to reach the lower to mid 60s. With the dry air mass and light winds expected at the surface, leaned closer to the cooler met numbers for tonight. Have overnight lows in the lower 40s, under mostly clear skies. May be just slightly warmer near larger lake waters due to water temps and better mixing overnight. The models show dry high pressure ridging into the region from the west and north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A broad mid to upper trof stretching from the Great Lakes to the northern plains states will begin to dig on the western side as more short wave energy dives south from Canada merging with another weak impulse tracking eastward from the sw conus to northern and western Tx through Tue afternoon. This pattern leads to better moisture advection in the lower levels by Tue afternoon possibly leading to some scattered cumulus for most of the lower half of the forecast area Tue afternoon, though with plenty of sunshine still in place.
At the surface, the question will be what happens with the and expansive cloud deck extending well west of the cyclone over southeastern Canada. Weak CAA through the lower levels will keep temps relatively cool.
A cold front is presently moving across NW WI will clear the region by this evening. Northern Ashland and Iron will see 2 to 5 inches of snow with the higher amounts in the Gogebic Range. An area of high pressure will build into the forecast region on Tuesday bringing another shot of colder air. Tuesday evening will be quiet with upper level and surface ridging over the forecast area. This is ahead of a large area of low pressure organizing over the Dakotas.
While the forecast is mainly dry, a sprinkle or two is hard to rule out over the higher terrain on Halloween. A stronger system will bring windy and cooler conditions over the weekend along with mountain snow and chances for valley rain.
325 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. Drier and cooler air continues to advect into the region. Gusty winds between 25 to 30 KTS will continue to diminish into tonight as the pressure gradient weakens between the departing low and incoming high pressure. Expecting a few locations to the north and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island to approach the freezing mark or even a few degrees below.
On Tuesday, a cold front will approach South Texas with deeper moisture surging across the area. Not as chilly this morning with the lowest temperatures residing in the northern ranchlands. Tonight our attention turns upstream as an H5 trough begins to slide eastward from the Pacific as well as a weak cold front drops southward into CenTex. This will continue to allow southeasterly fetch, which will continue to increase our cloud cover and gradually increase our precipitation chances, especially as a surface (coastal) trough begins to develop.
554 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An approaching weak cold front will stall and dissipate. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. With the dry air mass and light winds expected at the surface, leaned closer to the cooler NAM guidance for tonight. Have overnight lows in the lower 40s, under mostly clear skies. May be just slightly warmer near larger lake waters due to water temps and better mixing overnight. The models show dry high pressure ridging into the region from the west and north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
High pressure will be in control of the area tonight with a weak and dry cold front pushing southward into the area early Tuesday morning.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front entering the Big Bend area, w/post-frontal highs this afternoon ranging from the upper 50s north to 80s south. Synoptically, WV imagery shows the west coast trough has moved onshore, and is over the nrn Gulf of California. Incoming cloud cover associated w/the trough will retard radiational cooling overnight, w/freezing temps anticipated only in the Guadalupes and nrn Lea County. However, NAM soundings suggest -FZRA will be possible in the higher elevations of the Guadalupes around 12Z Tue.
157 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Intense low pressure will track to our west today bringing strong winds and some rain. The low will continue north through Quebec tonight into Tuesday as strong gusty winds continue. Strong southeast winds are expected this morning as the low continues to intensify to our west. Further north, the strongest winds will come later this morning into early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Highs today will generally be in the lower 60s. The low will continue to track well north of the region overnight. Lgt to mdt rnfl Thu and Thu eve will become shwry by late Thu ngt into Fri as low pres conts to track ENE toward N Cntrl QB followed by a trailing cold front across the Rgn arnd midday Fri.
The surface cold front pushed through the area this morning and northerly winds have become gusty in parts of the area. Temperatures have reached the low to mid 50s early this afternoon.
204 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. These showers are associated with a cold front which is moving towards the area. Temperatures should be cold enough tonight for some of the precipitation in the highest elevations to fall as a rain/snow mix. High pressure will being to nose into the region on Tuesday resulting in dry conditions along with lots of sunshine by afternoon.
312 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Currently, a broad upper level trough remains entrenched over the north central and northeastern CONUS. Surface temps for this afternoon have been close to advertised with cooler air advecting into the area keeping temps north of I-70 in the upper 40s and temps south of I-70 in the low 50s. Winds should diminish heading into the sunset time frame as the pressure gradient relaxes over the area and the parent low pressure system over the Great Lakes region lifts to the northeast. Strong radiational cooling should take place, so have low temps returning into the low 20s in some spots. Dry layer and depth of the subcloud layer being above freezing give some concern on what falls at the surface.
354 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and bring some light showers and a few areas of light rain.
Tuesday the region will be between the cool cyclonic flow to our north and high pressure off to our SW. From Central PA down into the Lower Susq Valley, it will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temps in the low to mid 50s. At the surface, retreating high pressure at the start of the period will be followed by a warm advection pattern and weak cold front late this week.
335 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) Cold front from south of Ft Stockton and San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM will move south of the I-10 corridor by 7 PM this evening. Lift from an upper low moving east through southern Arizona will move into West Central Texas Tuesday morning. By late afternoon, lift due to upper low will be over, except for eastern zones.
A weakening and moisture starved cold front will move through early tonight.
1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Water vapor imagery shows the cold front moving rapidly to the south with decent CAA over the region. However, this will also make is Max temperatures for Tuesday difficult and could be cooler than currently forecast.
309 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Wk cold front nearing Red River Valley, and will slowly move into area overnight. A partial dry slotting to occur into ne TX on Wed, but upper ridging over northern Mexico stalling out and allowing moisture to work back into the area from the east later in the week despite increased zonal flow aloft. A cold front currently just to the n of our region will continue swd today.
327 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Midafternoon surface analysis showed a cold front along and just south of the I-40 corridor. Model soundings depict returning moisture in the 850-700mb layer Tuesday afternoon, in advance of a midlevel trof over the plains.
337 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 As of this afternoon, the center of the upper low was over the western Great Lakes, with strong cyclonic flow and cold air advection across our region. Snow showers will continue this afternoon, possibly mixed with rain at times but for the most part should fall as snow with temperatures in the mid 30s and the fairly shallow layer near the ground with temperatures above freezing. This will occur as the upper low shifts eastward tonight.
This was ahead of some UVM related to the trough swinging through the Northern Plains. Normal low temperatures are in the lower to mid 30s and normal highs are in the mid to upper 50s. A reinforcing cold front moved in today with gusty northwest winds to around 45mph. the thermal H85 trough was over Minnesota along with the core of the strongest H85 winds of 35-45kts.
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A quiet afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure creating dry conditions, with nary a cloud in sky. As mentioned, a weak (dry) cold front will move through the region by early Tuesday morning, veering our winds to a NW to northerly direction. This shift will bring in some cooler air which will help to keep temperatures in check by a few degrees during the day. Clouds will filter into the region as temperatures fall from the lower 60s into the 50s and 40s over the course of the evening and night.
Upper level analysis places low over Lake Superior, with ridge off the Pacific coast. Thereafter, a mainly quiet night is expected with chilly temperatures as the high passes to the southeast. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through the day with southerly winds resulting in warmer, though still below average, temperatures.
A cold front currently just to the n of our region will continue swd today. /issued 224 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ South winds ahead of a cold front across eastern Oklahoma bringing much warmer conditions to the ArkLaTex this morning with temperatures currently in the lower 50s across much of the region. Temperatures should remain fairly mild with lows tonight falling into the low to mid 40s and highs on Tuesday in the 60s.
303 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A weak, reinforcing cold front will pass through the area tonight into early Tuesday, before high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic through Tuesday night.
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
138 PM PDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Cooler weather will continue this week under weak low pressure aloft. A low pressure trough will strengthen this weekend, bringing a chance of showers and breezy conditions. Low clouds are having a hard time clearing today due to subsidence behind the upper low. Cooler weather will continue this week with lower heights aloft. Light showers and patchy drizzle is possible tonight west of the mountains as the trough over northern CA swings across the area.
Tonight and Tuesday Scattered rain and snow showers continue to move across area late this afternoon with disturbances associated with deep upper low moving into Quebec. A brief period of ridging Tuesday should bring a period of breaks in cloud cover before next system arrives in zonal flow.
221 PM MST Mon Oct 30 2017 A brief cooling trend will begin today as a weak low pressure system tracks across the region.
Halloween will be warmer with increased downslope flow and gusty winds across our western foothills. Gusts of 40-50 mph will also spread to the Big Timber and Harlowton areas Tuesday night as surface trof moves east, under 50 kt westerly 700mb flow.
1110 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest Ontario, with high pressure centered over western MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure also over far southwest Ontario, with strong upper jet stretching from the Northern Rockies to the northern MS river valley. Highs will only be in the 30s, with some 20s across the higher Black Hills. Temps will drop quickly in the evening as high pressure moves over and eventually southeast of the area. Some milder air will return behind exiting high pressure, as west-southwest winds help push highs into the 40s and lower 50s.
High pressure will be in full control of the weather across the peninsula with mostly sunny to partly sunny skies expected each day.
Have also modified evening PoPs with light rain showers continuing to fall in the trough axis.
/issued 727 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Temperatures have been slowly warming over the past several hours and have warmed above freezing area wide.
346 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 After a partly cloudy morning for the Lower Keys, stratocumulus clouds clear to their southwest and crisp blue skies were enjoyed by all the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula residents and visitors. High temperatures held to near 70 degrees for most of the Lower and Middle Keys, while the Upper Keys earlier this afternoon were 65 to 67 degrees. A high pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will move to the northeast tonight and sit over the southeast United States and Florida panhandle tomorrow.
315 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through tonight, then be replaced by high pressure to the north late Tuesday through the end of the week. A weak cold front will stall over the area over the weekend. As high pressure continues to build over the region from the southwest overnight, a weak cold front with limited moisture will approach the region from the northwest late. As the front weakens high pressure to the north will build over the region with the flow becoming NE-E. Pred dry weather and warming trend expected this week into the weekend with high pressure in control. Coastal showers will be possible late week into the weekend as a weak coastal trough develops.
225 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 /18Z TAFS/ Cold front has moved south of KABI and was just north of San Angelo and Brownwood at 1740Z. A cold front will move south across the area today impacting KABI and KSJT in the 17-20Z time frame and the remainder of the TAF sites by 00Z. /issued 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will push across West Central Texas this afternoon and tonight. This front will bring gusty winds from the north, along with cooler temperatures.
However, this south flow will be short lived as the trough across the Great Lakes region will shift a cold front into the area overnight. Cooler, denser air will filter south through the day Tuesday yielding abundant cloud cover and cooler conditions. Greater saturation of the low levels coupled with this lift looks to best align by Tuesday afternoon. Have placed the highest rain chances 50-80% along and east of the I-35 corridor during this time frame.
High pressure will build Overhead this afternoon and remain through Tuesday. With the high overhead, winds should become near calm Tonight. Zonal flow to weak ridging aloft will prevail over the region.
A cold front will move into southern Utah this evening and there is the potential for some light precipitation near this front tonight into Tuesday morning.