Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Aviation A cold front will move through the area this morning ending the threat of thunderstorms by mid morning. It will still be warm today with highs in the mid 80s but it will be much cooler Friday with highs only in the 70s.
Another mild night is ahead with lows in the low to mid 70s.
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Muggy air will be displaced by a cold front which will pass through during the day and evening on Friday. The cold front nears the nrn tier before sunrise, but takes quite a bit of time to cross the CWA.
By 00Z Friday the upper low deepens and moves over Lake Superior which pushes a short wave into Iowa.
/Issued 1106 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ Update issued to increase POPs/chances for convection over the inland areas today, based in part on radar trends but also models showing a nice moist mid-level theta-e ridge over that area this morning through mid afternoon, providing moisture good advection. Inverted upper level trough will still be located to our west today. Upper level trough moves farther west/northwest of the area on Friday.
Our northwestern-most counties in central Kansas should see some relief from the heat today just behind the front, however most of the forecast area will remain within the influence of the stout low-level thermal ridge axis, in the sweltering heat. As an upper trough moves from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes through Friday, the front should begin to very slowly progress southward tonight through Friday across central/eastern Kansas.
Highs are expected to reach the lower 90s this afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. By tonight, a cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South from the north.
Rain chances will increase on Friday as a cold front nears the northern Arkansas border. a cold front will be dropping south across MO towards AR.
As we go into the weekend, areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase as the atmosphere slowly moistens with southerly flow around an upper ridge centered over southern Nevada and southwestern Utah.
313 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Hot and humid conditions prevail across the lower Ohio Valley with regional observations showing temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Moisture pooling ahead of an approaching cold front has put dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Heavy rainfall will remain a concern given the high PWATs (1. 9 inches), slow storm motion, and high freezing levels/warm cloud depths. Additional storms may develop along the cold front across central Illinois and central Indiana and drop south/southeast.
The upper level ridge will be centered over central Colorado with moisture still in place over southeast Colorado. At the surface, high pressure over the central plains will keep easterly winds in place most of the day. The large upper ridge wobbling over the center of the country may play tricks with our weather during the extended pd, particularly this weekend.
322 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Low pressure over Lake Huron will track slowly eastward through tonight. A cold front will move across northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight into Friday.
353 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Latest satellite imagery this afternoon shows both the amplifying upper level ridge across the western CONUS as well as the counter-clockwise rotation associated with the low pressure system spinning over south-central Colorado. Overnight lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer under mostly cloudy skies.
As we go through the rest of the evening, most places will remain dry except for far western zones where a few isolated thunderstorms could form in the higher elevations above the cap. A few of these could make it north and east off the higher elevations, but confidence is low, and these will likely produce little rain. A weak disturbance will pass through the top of the ridge axis tonight and this will push a weak (and dry) front through the forecast area tomorrow morning.
The combination of clouds and precipitation along with cooler 850mb temperatures support high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. High temperatures expected to be in the low to upper 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
In the wake of this disturbance, high pressure will build across the region for the weekend allowing for hot temperatures.
653 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Muggy air will be displaced by a cold front which will pass through during the day and evening on Friday. The cold front nears the nrn tier before sunrise, but takes quite a bit of time to cross the CWA.
Convection should continue for the next several hours before some drier air behind the trough axis starts to filter in from the east later today.
This will help to enhance storm coverage and maintain the high moisture airmass.
316 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Several weak areas of low pressure will track along a stalled front over southern New England over the next few days as cool high pressure remains to our northeast.
617 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Low pressure over Lake Huron will track slowly eastward through tonight. A cold front will move across northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight into Friday.
Most of the showers will dissipate by the early overnight hours with skies becoming partly cloudy, with lows in the low/mid 70s. During this time the Lower Mississippi Valley region will be situated between a sprawling and deep high pressure ridge to our west (over the Intermountain West and High Plains) and a somewhat more subtle "Bermuda" High encroaching toward the Deep South. By afternoon on all these days there will likely be enough convective activity around and associated moving and cooler outflow boundaries to temper the heat some as well.
For temperatures, going close to persistence for overnight lows (bit cooler Friday night some inland areas with less moisture/better radiational cooling), and light winds. Going warmer on highs out west on Friday (than today's forecast) with less convective activity, but did curtail 100F or more temperatures over inland areas given model 2 meter temperatures in the afternoon.
Given the low to mid level shear (<20 knots), efficient transport of parcels for updraft/downdraft interactions has been marginal, leading to outflow dominated storms. Convection allowing models, as well as intermediate and medium range model guidance, have had trouble resolving the effectiveness of the thermal ridging aloft.
This is thanks to the upper ridge displacing the cyclonic flow to our east, and replacing it with anti-cyclonic flow aloft and hence subsidence across the region. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day under mostly sunny skies and high pressure. Winds will be light and variable through the day as the high moves through and temperatures should top out around 75 in western WI to 85 in western MN.
In the upper levels, generally zonal flow remains in place across the region, set up between low pressure spinning over the MN/Can border and elongated high pressure over the southern CONUS. Expecting ongoing precipitation to continue into the post-sunrise hours, but as the low level jet and warm air advection wanes, so should the overall coverage/intensity. Later today and tonight, the higher PoPs are across far southern NE and into KS, closer to the main surface boundary and where the better lower/mid level frontogenetical forcing is expected to be in place. Outside of the precipitation chances, cooler temperatures are forecast for today. Some models/guidance suggest highs weren't lower enough, so confidence isn't the highest. Looking ahead to the weekend, the upper level ridge is expected to strengthen as it expands eastward into the Central Plains.
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 The upper level low seen on water vapor loop spinning over northwest Ontario will keep the Northland in a fall-like weather pattern today. A couple more vorticity maxima will rotate through the low trough and provide some more showers today, mostly in the MN Arrowhead and far northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will build into the region tonight with the upper low moving across Lake Superior. the subsidence with the high will bringing clearing skies from the west. Have slowed down clearing form previous forecasts based on the slower retreat of the upper low. With the high pressure over the region Friday, expect sunshine and warmer temperatures.
316 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Cold front has made it just south of a St. In addition, the lack of a focused low- level jet feeding into the cold front should prevent a widespread heavy rain and flooding situation like what occurred further north last night. Much more comfortable conditions will build in for Friday with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
Over the next 24 hours, a mid-level ridge is expected to amplify across the western Contiguous United States.
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ SE Texas will be on the edge of a building upper level ridge. The axis of the ridge will be just north of the area but over the next several days, a weakness in the ridge will develop as trough develops into the lower MS Valley and an inverted trough moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the Upper TX coast. A consensus of model solutions show the ridge redeveloping overhead over the last part of the upcoming week. By this afternoon, the model forecast soundings had an inverted V profile in the lowest 850 mb, indicating the potential for gusty winds in the stronger storms. With the ridge slightly stronger and PWs a bit lower, am expecting less coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Current afternoon temperatures are running a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday's. Widespread triple digit heat will be possible across the Central valley this weekend as an upper level ridge builds westwards across the Four Corners.
Still have surface cold front approaching the I-69 corridor at the present time to work, but flow out ahead of it is not backed enough to get really good convergence. 700-500 MB lows over Lake Superior tracking east over northern Lake Huron Tomorrow, with positive tilted trough axis swinging through southern Lower Michigan during the day. Weak low level cold advection during the day, with 850 mb temps lowering into the 10 to 12 C Range, should be good for maxes of 75-80 degrees, with urban heat island of Detroit slightly warmer with modest downsloping low level northwest flow.
Cold front had moved south of the forecast area and at 07Z was located across northern Missouri into northeast and north central Kansas. Upper high over the western conus expands into the lower Missouri Valley also during this time.
Deep layer ridging will prevail across the region through today. 2C and wet microburst indicators on the low-end of severe thresholds, a few of the strongest storms today could have the potential for damaging winds.
Upper level inverted trough located across the Big Bend area to pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains for possible showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Today's high temperatures should be a bit "cooler" than yesterday by one or two degrees as cloud coverage will stay longer this morning and then break to partly cloudy skies mid afternoon.
While the short wave trough exits the forecast area taking the bulk of the showers and potential for thunderstorms with it during the remainder of this afternoon and overnight, a possibility of isolated to scattered rain showers remains generally south of Interstate 70 overnight as storms develop over Colorado and lift out over the eastern plains of Colorado and western Kansas. Generally high pressure is in place across the region tonight and Friday. With light winds, dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s, and overnight temperatures nearly matching the dewpoints through the overnight and early morning hours, expect the boundary layer to become saturated.
552 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A cold front was slowly working its way south across Missouri this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7pm this evening as the cold front will be slow in pushing the summertime high to the west until later tonight into the overnight hours. Ample moisture will be available for storm development with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures Friday will be cooler as the result of the increased cloud cover and rain across the region.
After a mainly quiet period of weather tonight, an upper level disturbance approaching from the northern Great Lakes will allow the frontal boundary to retreat northward as a warm front on Friday. On Friday, should start dry, but next low pressure system developing across the ern Great Lakes will allow frontal bndry to retreat back nwd with increasing low-level WAA and isentropic ascent over our region during the aftn/early evening period.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s at most locales, with winds calm to light from the south.
Temps continue on track to top out in the low 90s across much of the area with the heat index near 100 or above.
There is still a weak trough across the western High Plains that could still bring some isolated convection to the KS/NE border tonight, but the bulk of the QPF should be south of our forecast area as depicted by HRRR/RAP/Highres ARW/NMM. Thereafter through the remainder of the short term, quiet and dry weather is expected with an upper ridge building back into the area.
Thereafter, high pressure spreading down from Minnesota will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and pleasant temperatures through Friday. While forecast RH somewhat supports its development, the center of the high will not make it into our area until later Friday morning, so during the pre-dawn hours there should still be organized, if light, wind fields.
High pressure that was centered over central and western North Dakota this morning, will move east into the western Great Lakes by Friday morning with a southerly return flow developing over the forecast area. The return southerly flow will also inhibit the low stratus and fog formation we experienced this morning. Upper level ridging strengthens on Friday with daytime highs from 100 to 105 still likely across much of western and central North Dakota as the thermal ridge develops east with 925mb temperatures of 32-38C advertised.
303 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Elsewhere, remnant cloud cover from the morning trough is suppressing temperatures and resultant instability. Upper-level low will push southeast through the day, with the surface cold front dragging through in the afternoon. Nevertheless, SPC has outlined the Ridges in a day 2 Slight Risk. High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing a drying trend heading into the weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
On Friday, this high will continue to drift east, allowing for southerly winds and hot temperatures to make a return to the area.
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Scattered storms continue to erupt across the area in the warm, humid and unstable airmass on the northwest side of a retreating upper level ridge.
More tomorrow, a cooler airmass will advect in from the NE. Tomorrow is shaping to be fairly pleasant and cooler than it has been with widespread 80s. A few 90s will be possible along the lower elevations near the Oklahoma border.
Will probably see a good amount of clouds again Friday with a cooler airmass aloft. Below normal high temps in the low to mid 70s are expected.
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A cold front will move through with low chances for showers mainly southeast of Route 24 this afternoon. Cooler and sharply lower humidity will follow Friday into this weekend. Cooler and much drier air will overspread the area through Fri aftn. Thereafter pattern looks to become unsettled again throughout nrn periphery of hot central plains centered upper ridge. Cold front does sink through tonight, though forcing and moisture not all that impressive.
/issued 219 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ An upper level low pressure area just south of the Big Bend will slowly move west toward western Mexico through the weekend.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the Big Bend region. This activity should continue tonight as the upper low moves slowly away to the west.
Surface analysis this morning shows ridging extending from the east coast covering much of the SE US with light SW flow and mostly clear skies. AL and Southern Middle TN are already into the low 80s with dew points well into the 70s. Isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon with heat indices climbing into the low 100s across much of the region. Based on a gradual increase in dewpoints, we expect lows to be a degree or so warmer on Friday morning with some locations perhaps only dropping into the u70s. We have indicated the highest POPs during these periods, with greatest coverage expected for the northwest half of the region.
339 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure will very slowly drift southeast, bringing another cool morning. Temperatures tonight will drop again into the 50s in most locations with the coolest readings across northwest IA and southwest MN where a few low spots could sneak down into the lower 50s. Some of the cooler spots could allow for a little fog development as well, but widespread low visibilities are not expected.
652 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Expect a brief window for diminished cloud coverage this evening, before the high moisture content translates into an expanding low stratus tonight. Still have surface cold front approaching the I-69 corridor at the present time to work, but flow out ahead of it is not backed enough to get really good convergence. 700-500 MB lows over Lake Superior tracking east over northern Lake Huron Tomorrow, with positive tilted trough axis swinging through southern Lower Michigan during the day. Weak low level cold advection during the day, with 850 mb temps lowering into the 10 to 12 C Range, should be good for maxes of 75-80 degrees, with urban heat island of Detroit slightly warmer with modest downsloping low level northwest flow.
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A few showers and storms have developed along the Red River counties this afternoon where the weak upper level trough axis is located. Tonight into tomorrow, the upper level ridge across the western United States will amplify and have a stronger influence on our sensible weather across the area.
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Upper-level low will push southeast through the day, with the surface cold front dragging through in the afternoon. Nevertheless, SPC has outlined the Ridges in a day 2 Slight Risk. High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing a drying trend heading into the weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
Very warm, moist and unstable airmass in place across Middle Tennessee this morning with temperatures already in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and 12Z OHX sounding showing a PWAT of 1.
Some drier air was attempting to sag into the far northern Great Lakes region, but the lagging 850 mb low over northern or northeast Wisconsin will continue to support a saturated boundary as an upper trough drops southeast over the Great Lakes region including northeast Wisconsin. Much cooler temperatures expected today with the cloudy conditions. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures expected on Friday as well before temps start to warm up again.
Weak troughing over Northern California/PACNW has allowed the marine layer to deepen further versus 24 hours ago. No surprise then to see temperatures running slightly cooler and dew points slightly higher in areas saturated by this marine air mass. High pressure over the desert southwest is forecast to backbuild into the Great Basin and portions of California over the coming weekend. 850MB temperatures are ranging from 23 to 26C over the region during this stretch depending on the model and location, which is coming in slightly cooler than late last weeks 25 to 27C. Current thinking is that they may be, at least for the higher elevation locations (Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Lucias/Pinnacles NP, and the Diablo Range).
Should see lows mainly in the 60s(F) tonight with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
Mid-level moisture has also increased considerably as the low moving across Far West Texas has helped to pull moisture northward across the area.
A discontinuity in the atmosphere, with attendant wind shift that is reminiscent of a cold front, without the airmass change, will push through the region tomorrow. It is also possible that headlines for heat may also be necessary for tomorrow due to compressional heating ahead and along of the discontinuity pushing temperatures into the low to mid 100s in some locations, especially in the southern and eastern areas.
111 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Low pressure over Michigan will track slowly eastward through tonight. A cold front will move across northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight into Friday.
/issued 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A nearly stationary upper low near the Big Bend early this morning will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor today, and scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight over Crockett, Sutton, and Schleicher counties. Otherwise hot and dry conditions are expected across the rest of West Central Texas today and tonight, with upper level high pressure bringing subsidence conditions. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s. Highs pressure aloft will continue to dominate; although, the high will shift slightly west.
Drier air will move into the mid levels of the atmosphere in the wake of an inverted trough tonight and Friday, limiting rain chances.
409 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge west acrs the Gulf coast which is maintaining light southeasterly winds over the region. Aloft, the area remains south of a east-west oriented ridge axis acrs the southern plains into the mid-MS valley. Despite this, showers and tstms developed a little later today and coverage has been more widely sctd than the past few days thanks to a little more influence from ridging in the mid levels.
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Cold front is edging across the far northern CWA early this afternoon, with dew points down into the upper 60s. The earlier convective line that formed just south of Lawrenceville resulted in briefly cooler conditions, but heat index values mainly in the 100-105 range at this point. However, high pressure building in from the northwest on Friday will result in dry conditions across the area. Much of the weekend will see our area in a northwest flow, as the upper ridge across the western U.
330 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Scattered storms continue to erupt across the area in the warm, humid and unstable airmass on the northwest side of a retreating upper level ridge.
On the back side of the departing high pressure south winds will develop overnight which will keep temps up into the 50s for the valley and to the west. By early evening, expect thunderstorms to develop along the cold front.
Surface wise, a weak tropical wave is located on the western portion of our region, with a high pressure ridge extending into the southeast United States. In wake of the weak tropical wave in the western portion of our area moving westward and further away from our region, high pressure extending into the southeast United States will sag slowly southward and across the Sunshine State Friday through this weekend. With a deep layered (surface to 500 mb) western Atlantic ridge holding across the Florida peninsula, our region will lie within a predominate anticyclonic flow and a decelerating low level trajectory. Subsequently, low chance pops will be carried with highs near 90 and low temperatures in the lower 80s.
334 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 High pressure will build down from this northwest this and crest over the area tonight.