Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 High pressure over the Mississippi River valley has led to clear skies and temps in the 20s to low 30s across the area early this morning. Low pressure will strengthen tonight across Kansas. A strong cold front will approach the area Thursday morning and push through the area during the day.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep conditions warm and dry into Thursday before another cold front moves through Deep South Texas Thursday night. Thursday night temperatures will be slightly cooler, mainly across northern portions of the CWA, due to the passing cold front with lows in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s near Brownsville.
1128 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 An upper ridge currently sits comfortably overhead while a deep closed low continues to spin over the Northeast CONUS. The next trough of interest is entering the Pacific NW this morning. Lee troughing will tighten up the pressure gradient across the region today bringing increased southerly flow to the area. The pressure gradient along and behind the surface cold front will be quite tight, brining strong, at least advisory level, winds across the forecast area. Temp wise, MaxT was trended down for tomorrow, closer to the 50th percentile of Model Certainty which looks to align much better with the EC/NAM and other cooler model solution. The region will remain under northwest flow while several embedded waves make their way through the broad upper trough.
Deep dry northwest flow will continue today as the local region remains under the backside of the upper trough just off the Atlantic seaboard. At the surface, strong high pressure centered off the New England coast will pull further away to the northeast with a weaker area of high pressure building in from the west. With the weakening of the gradient across our forecast area it will not be as breezy today but cooler than normal temperatures will continue.
(This evening through Thursday) An area of low pressure located along the Front Range this afternoon will move southeast through tomorrow. A cold front will move through West Central Texas tomorrow from late morning to mid-afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front may reach their forecast highs around noontime before the front brings in cooler conditions.
355 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather will continue through Thursday afternoon under high pressure.
959 AM MST Wed Feb 3 2021 A Pacific cold front will move through the region tonight producing areas of rain and snow.
Tonight into tomorrow, main story is the approaching cold front, which has begun to trek southward through the Dakotas and E MT/CO as of 20z. As this occurs, base of a longwave upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will pass just to the north of our CWA.
Winds will likely remain strong into the evening with a strong surface pressure gradient as well as some influence from the lower level jet aloft. Starting at midnight, a cold front will begin to enter the area from the northwest, resulting in a surface wind shift to the north/northwest and intensifying winds. Overnight lows will remain above normal for Wednesday night/Thursday morning due to the strong winds, however the high temperatures for Thursday will drop back down to normal seasonable values.
TFJ A cold front will push through NE Montana today, bringing with it light accumulations of wet snow as well as the potential for freezing rain to mix in at times. A cold front will push through with light snow and potential for some mixing in of freezing rain.
301 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather is on tap for tonight and Thursday as high pressure settles over the region.
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper ridging will hang on for one more day over the area before a pattern change leads to much cooler conditions. This will keep lows well above average tonight before a cold front begins to cross the area Thursday morning.
But, expecting the headline for fog will need to be extended for several more hours prior to the cold frontal passage/wind shift forecast to occur later today. Other than revisiting the freezing "drizzle vs rain" p-type, no other notable changes planned to the forecast at this time. Another day, another round of fog and freezing fog. Expect the cold front to move into central SD around 18Z and our eastern counties 00-003Z Thursday.
Main aviation uncertainty is the potential for MVFR ceilings at GUY around 12z as a cold front pushes south. Otherwise, after southwesterly winds at all sites this afternoon, expect winds to veer to north-northwesterly as the aforementioned cold front moves south. Looking at the bigger picture, the low level thermal ridge placement is more over eastern New Mexico with a 30 to 40 knot 700mb jet.
140 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather will continue through Thursday afternoon under high pressure.
With some continued subsidence warming in the low-levels & dry air aloft persisting, a nice warm & sunny afternoon is expected. Low-level ridge axis will build east, leading to some gradual WAA/return flow across the west into the afternoon.
1145 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 A strong upper level low over the Mid Atlantic coast will drift slowly northeast over New England today. Meanwhile, high pressure will settle over the Southeast states through Thursday.
Southerly low level flow strengthened ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, pulling warmer temperatures into the region. A significant change in our relatively mild start to February will arrive tonight as a strong cold front associated with the previously mentioned trough blasts through the region. This could lead to flash freezing of any rainfall or melted snow on the relatively warm ground.
356 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Winds will gradually transition over to southerly then southwesterly as an area of low pressure continues to develop in the Central Plains and move southeastward. Late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening will see the passage of the next cold front and the possibility of some shower development. The surface cold front will continue to push through SE Texas on Thursday night, clearing the Houston metro area after sunset and reaching the coast around midnight. 25+ in) continue to be concentrated northeast of the I-610 loop, and thus have maintained the trend of keeping the highest PoP values confined to this area.
Northwest flow aloft prevails today into tonight behind an upper level trough to our east and an upper level ridge building in from the west. Northwest flow transitions to westerly/zonal flow aloft Thursday as the upper level ridge axis shifts east into the central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure dominates the first half of the period today and tonight, slowly translating east of the area tonight. In its wake, the approach of our next cold front will promote a shift to southerly surface flow as warm air advection (WAA) takes hold. By the end of the period Thursday evening, the cold front will be draped from western Tennessee southwestward through central Louisiana and southeastern TX.
1100 AM MST Wed Feb 3 2021 Updated forecast section A Pacific cold front will move through the region tonight producing areas of rain and snow.
1240 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Cool, high pressure will advect into the region, bringing dry weather through Thursday.
The warmest temps in the forecast peaked this afternoon as highs soared a few degrees above all model guidance into the lower 60s. Expect the stronger winds around 10 to 15 mph to hold through the evening hours before weakening as a strong cold front approaches. Overall trend of the short term model package is faster with respect to the speed of the cold front and subsequent drier air that follows late tonight through sunrise Thursday. Based on the upper trough axis and optimal lift centered across NE, snow amounts up to 1 inch are possible north of highway 36, towards far northeast Kansas. Temps during the day are non-diurnal dropping to the lower and middle 30s.
Temperatures range from the lower to upper 40s under clear skies and nearly calm winds. Expect readings in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area, with freezing temperatures likely along the Tennessee River Valley. Rain will move into the region as early as tomorrow morning and continue through the afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. QPF values look to remain around a half an inch, with the highest values residing over west Tennessee. The front will exit the region late Thursday night as Pacific high pressure builds in from the west.
Dry weather into tonight as a ridge builds offshore.
631 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A cold core of air aloft and northwest flow at the ridgetops will combine this evening to produce several bursts of snowfall across north central Idaho, west-central Montana, and (to a lesser extent) southwest Montana.
Upper level ridge axis extends from central Mexico, over the state, and into the Ohio River Valley.
525 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 A cold front will come through the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles bringing breezy north winds after 06Z and before 12Z today. Tonight into tomorrow, main story is the approaching cold front, which has begun to trek southward through the Dakotas and E MT/CO as of 20z. As this occurs, base of a longwave upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will pass just to the north of our CWA.
As the core of the mid/upper level trough shifts eastward out of the Great Basin, dry conditions will develop over our region along with weak offshore flow. North to northeast winds will become breezy and locally gusty in the higher peaks of greater San Francisco Bay Area. This trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific, allowing for the air mass aloft to warm.
548 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 High pressure will be moving off to the east tonight and allow moisture to return to the area. A warm front will move across Arkansas in the morning, bringing gusty south winds, and will be quickly followed by a cold front.
809 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather will continue through Thursday afternoon under high pressure.
High pressure at the surface is shifting east of the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Aloft, the region is under the influence of a ridge currently centered over Mexico. Tonight into Thursday the northern edge of the upper ridge will flatten while the short wave moves SE toward the north gulf coast. This will send a cold front into the local area by late Thursday.
This precipitation is associated with an upper level low that is quickly moving east along the California-Oregon border, and will continue to trek east into the Great Basin over the next 12 hours. Can't rule out some rural locations approaching the freezing mark. Ensemble guidance indicates that the upper level ridge axis in the northern Pacific will amplify and drift closer to the West Coast heading into the weekend.
525 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 (This evening through Thursday) An area of low pressure located along the Front Range this afternoon will move southeast through tomorrow. A cold front will move through West Central Texas tomorrow from late morning to mid-afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front may reach their forecast highs around noontime before the front brings in cooler conditions.
Latest surface analysis was showing the cold front extending from just north of Rawlins and Wheatland to near Alliance Nebraska. We did keep the high wind warning in effect for the southern Laramie Range through 5pm or so, but once the front approaches we will most likely let that warning go early.
608 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather is on tap for tonight and Thursday as high pressure settles over the region.
902 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Clear, and dry tonight with unseasonably cold temperatures and light to calm winds as high pressure continues to build over the region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s almost areawide, except across Martin county where lows will drop down to the mid to upper 30s. FEW/SCT250 across all sites through the TAF period as a high pressure system continues to build across the region. The pressure gradient over the local waters will slacken overnight, as a high pressure system builds over the area.
912 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
616 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Light snows will come to an end tonight with weak high pressure bringing partly sunny to mostly clear skies by Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
650 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Cool, high pressure will advect into the region, bringing dry weather through Thursday.
Although it's certainly less windy than last night, temperatures have already dropped into the low 40s and upper 30s across much of the area and are on track to be about as cold as it was last night. High pressure will shift overhead tonight and winds will become calm as the pressure gradient weakens across our area. With subsidence from overhead high pressure, calm winds, and skies remaining clear, cold overnight low temperatures and freeze and frost conditions are expected. Tomorrow, high pressure will shift to the east, and the prevailing flow will shift to be from the south. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the low-to-mid 60s.
This will be the last cold night this week as high pressure moves off the southeast U.
559 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 Upper level ridging has moved into the area today along with good low level warm advection. For tonight, the upper level trough will shift southeast into the plains with a strong low and surface cold front just west of the CWA by 12z. Cloud cover will be on the increase out ahead of this next system tonight and with the gusty winds will keep temperatures in the low to mid 40s over the western half of the area and the mid to upper 30s in the east. Thursday night and begin to dig a deep trough over the central U.
Stable and relatively dry 500 mb and surface ridging in place over the RGV area will maintain VFR conditions for all 3 airports across the region. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep conditions warm and dry into Thursday before another cold front moves through Deep South Texas Thursday night. Thursday night temperatures will be slightly cooler, mainly across northern portions of the CWA, due to the passing cold front with lows in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s near Brownsville.
There is a slight chance for rain and snow showers the Four Corners region Wednesday night as a cold front moves through. Dry weather and warmer afternoon temperatures are forecast for the weekend. Strong southwest winds continue across the region with the stronger winds over the higher terrain. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6PM today for the Kaibab and Coconino Plateaus west to Mohave County, the Vermilion Cliffs west of Page, along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim, and over the higher terrain of Navajo and Apache Counties. A cold front moving down through the Great Basin will at the Utah/Arizona border about midnight, will push south to I-40 by about 6 AM Thursday and will pass south out of the region by noon.
558 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 Key messages: - A cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning, dropping temperatures and bringing a brief period of wintry weather.
649 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes, south to the Tennessee Valley will move east and bring clearing skies overnight and diminishing winds into Thursday.
423 PM MST Wed Feb 3 2021 A cold front is crossing the area from NW to SE at this hour. RA/SN will overspread most of the area by late aftn/early eve, becoming all SN tonight as cooler air continues to spill swd. Temps behind the first front will be much cooler than recently, but really just closer to normal for early February.
Most sites will become gusty tomorrow morning due to strengthening low pressure system in the Central Plains with an exception to CLL and UTS which is already gusty.
The semi-permanent upper ridge that has been in place over the northern Rockies/Montana so far this winter is just a memory now as the ridge will reside off the West coast. This will keep an upper trough over the area and open the door for.
A few minor changes to the short term, but it looks to be somewhat quiet with a ridge off the coast keeping an north flow across the Sierra and western Nevada. Wind gusts to 40 mph will remain likely through 6 PM with some ridge gusts to 70 mph. Thursday will remain cool, but with lighter winds it will feel a little warmer.
Windy weather will subside this evening as an area of low pressure moves east.
523 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 Rain will overspread central Illinois late tonight into Thursday, ahead of a strong cold front which will sweep across the Midwest. Some of this rain may initially be mixed with some light snow or freezing rain, but a more widespread change to snow will begin toward sunset before the precipitation ends in the evening.
The High Wind Warning was expired as planned for the South Laramie Foothills as the threat transitioned to winter weather. Latest surface analysis was showing the cold front extending from just north of Rawlins and Wheatland to near Alliance Nebraska. We did keep the high wind warning in effect for the southern Laramie Range through 5pm or so, but once the front approaches we will most likely let that warning go early.
314 PM MST Wed Feb 3 2021 A weak weather system approaching from the northwest will bring breezy conditions by this evening before bringing a dry cold front through the region early on Thursday.
A weak weather system approaching from the northwest will bring breezy conditions by this evening before bringing a dry cold front through the region early on Thursday.
Otherwise, large-scale subsidence will dominate the region as an upper ridge amplifies over the NERN PAC.
We had quite a chilly morning this morning, especially in the Upper Keys where temperatures dropped into the lower 50s. Temperatures have since increased to the lower to mid 60s across the island chain. High pressure will move off the coast of Louisiana this afternoon and make its way across the Florida Peninsula overnight. As the anticyclone tracks to the east, our winds will gradually veer from the north to the southeast over the next day or so. Forecast soundings are showing the highest PWAT (1.
Brief upper level ridging today has cleared out skies faster than anticipated this morning. Enjoy it while it lasts though, because an upper level trof sinks down over us tonight and brings a frigid cold front and strong winds with it.
In response, a strong cold front will move into portions of eastern Oklahoma by Thursday morning with gusty northwest winds developing behind boundary.
152 PM PST Wed Feb 3 2021 A low pressure system moving southeastward through the Great Basin today will bring cooling, coastal low clouds and patchy fog, along with gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts through this evening.
843 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Dry weather will continue through Thursday afternoon under high pressure.
A cold front is crossing the area from NW to SE at this hour. RA/SN will overspread most of the area by late aftn/early eve, becoming all SN tonight as cooler air continues to spill swd. Temps behind the first front will be much cooler than recently, but really just closer to normal for early February.
Focus then shifts to a system this evening that will bring a mix of rain and snow changing to all snow as a cold front sweeps east tonight.
Look for those ceilings to prevail through much of the day Thursday ahead of a cold front that will be moving through our terminal sites by late in the afternoon and early evening hours. Continued to mention the possibility of VCSH across all but our NE TX terminal locations ahead of the cold front on Thu.
Upper level ridging has moved into the area today along with good low level warm advection. For tonight, the upper level trough will shift southeast into the plains with a strong low and surface cold front just west of the CWA by 12z. Cloud cover will be on the increase out ahead of this next system tonight and with the gusty winds will keep temperatures in the low to mid 40s over the western half of the area and the mid to upper 30s in the east. Thursday night and begin to dig a deep trough over the central U.
Simultaneously, the low level jet will pick up and some southerly gusts to 20-25 knots are possible at AUS late tonight into Thursday morning. Clouds should scatter out by about midday, and a cold front/wind shift will arrive around mid- afternoon first at DRT, then AUS by late afternoon and SAT/SSF by the evening, becoming gusty behind the front. Upper level ridge axis extends from central Mexico, over the state, and into the Ohio River Valley.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 50 37 49 29 / 0 10 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 47 35 45 29 / 0 20 90 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 25 46 33 45 27 / 0 20 90 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 48 35 43 25 / 0 10 90 20 10 TN.
1045 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes, south to the Tennessee Valley will move east and bring clearing skies overnight and diminishing winds into Thursday.
Kept MVFR ceilings prevailing through the daytime hours on Thu and through the end of the TAF period with VCSH mention across all but the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals during the late morning and afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front that will move from northwest to southeast across our airspace during this TAF period.
Highs tomorrow will be similar to today west of the mountains, but it will be a cooler day in the deserts.
1010 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 (This evening through Thursday) An area of low pressure located along the Front Range this afternoon will move southeast through tomorrow. A cold front will move through West Central Texas tomorrow from late morning to mid-afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front may reach their forecast highs around noontime before the front brings in cooler conditions.
Greater coverage expected along and north of the Highway 84 corridor as a cold front approaches from the northwest. An upper ridge stretching north from the Southeast shifts off the East Coast, with upper flow becoming zonal Thursday over the Southeast.
1030 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Currently - High pressure aligned from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and bending eastwards towards the Bahamas is steadily migrating eastwards tonight. The previously mentioned high pressure system will slide a bit further eastwards and aligned over and east of Florida. High pressure sliding eastwards across Florida will shift gentle to moderate breezes from northwest to north to northeast late tonight.
This will result in afternoon temperatures warming to near seasonal levels after a chilly start with near to sub-freezing temperatures at many inland locations and areas of frost. High level cloudiness will be increasing through the day as a broad trough and associated cold front advances eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Clouds will continue to increase with lowering heights this evening and overnight along with rain chances as the cold front moves into our far northwestern zones by daybreak.
259 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 High pressure through Thursday.
Currently, low pressure was centered over southwest Kansas. This low pressure system will move east moving across southern Missouri later this morning with a cold front sweeping through Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs from the lower 50s to lower 60s. The cold front will move out of the region tonight with rain ending from west to east. High pressure will start to build into the region late tonight.
922 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 Breezy S-SE winds to continue into the overnight period, but will lessen as the next cold front approaches eastern Oklahoma tomorrow morning.
/Issued 922 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021/ Breezy S-SE winds to continue into the overnight period, but will lessen as the next cold front approaches eastern Oklahoma tomorrow morning.