Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A low pressure system to the southeast of the area brought light rain and drizzle to the area this morning. Northerly cold air advection will decrease 850mb temperatures to below freezing tonight. That in addition to the scattering of clouds will drop temperatures to the high 20s and low 30s overnight. Chilly broad cyclonic flow persists aloft through the end of the week as a deep upper low wobbles over the southern James Bay area.
/issued 313 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ Latest surface analysis places a cold front pushing towards the Tennessee River. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with high temperatures tomorrow warming into the low 70s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
Temperatures are a concern tonight, with overnight lows dipping below freezing for northern portions of the area and frost a concern for southern portions. So there will be periods of clear skies with light winds and maximum radiational cooling and then periods where cloud cover will keep it a bit warmer.
1019 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A cold front will exit the region this evening allowing much cooler air to filter in to close the work week.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ Cold front currently stretching from the central Great Lakes down through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will build in behind the front later on Friday. Not much cooler air behind the front.
736 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Large upper low spinning near the Great Lakes continues to produce weak troughiness into the Deep South as seen in water vapor imagery and upper air plots. High pressure over the Atlantic will maintain an east-southeast wind flow over the forecast area through Friday.
It should be another great day tomorrow with high pressure slowly drifting off to the east throughout the day. A few light showers could show up across southern Oklahoma tomorrow along the diffuse warm front as it lifts north across the area.
This is most likely associated with upper level trough and the last umph for the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be 15 or so degrees cooler than last night. The showers and storms associated with the cold front has just about pushed east of the forecast area.
726 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A cold front will exit the region this evening allowing much cooler air to filter in to close the work week.
552 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania through tonight, dragging a cold front through the area. This will result in showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, followed by cooler conditions this weekend.
645 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 We will see some lingering clouds this afternoon to early evening associated with the low that provided yesterday's rain. With high pressure moving in now the forecast is trending towards clear sky and light winds with little chance for any precipitation. With both overnights expected to have temperatures fall near to below freezing.
906 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania through tonight, dragging a cold front through the area. This will result in showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, followed by cooler conditions this weekend.
/Today through Saturday/ The Four-States region looks to experience post-frontal conditions for the first 24 hours of this short-term, as the cold front stalls in our southern zones.
Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front but chances are too low to include in TAFs. High pressure ridge will move east of the region through Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Tonight and Friday will be warmer than normal. Cooler air will advect in for Friday night following the front, with lows ranging from the middle 50s across inland SE GA, to the middle 60s along the coast.
1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Another cold front will sag south across Illinois this evening and overnight bringing patchy drizzle to central Illinois.
This lines up well with a warm front that will migrate northeastward across the area through the period. As a result, opted to include mid level clouds for the TAF sites at about the time the warm front arrives.
254 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas.
Band of warm advection cloudiness extending from Tioga and Stanley, south southeast through Beulah/Hazen and to New Salem, Mandan and Selfridge. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies as ridging becomes the main feature over the region.
The best chance for fog will be across the northern ranchlands, but some patchy fog canât be ruled out across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley.
324 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The 500 mb pattern consists of a closed low in southern James Bay which is embedded in a broad trough over the ern U. with a trough off the west coast and a ridge in the Rockies. The closed low moves little this forecast period and keeps the upper Great Lakes in an upper level trough.
A tranquil pattern will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft slowly shifts east through the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. As for temperatures, a prevailing southerly flow will draw warmer air up into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures up around 15C in central Kansas to near 20C out along the Colorado border. A warm front is expected to bisect the state. Will have to watch the area for far southwest Kansas, where RHâs will be the lowest.
Other than that, VFR is expected through the TAF cycle as drier air gradually builds into the region Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 48 72 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 48 69 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 47 69 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 46 66 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0.
This will keep low rain chances across the region today before a weak cold front moves into the area over the weekend. The front is currently extending southwest from an area of low pressure near New England down along the eastern seaboard and through the Carolinas and Georgia. The front will push through the area on Saturday and stall out over southern Florida as high pressure builds in over the southeast U.
Far north Missouri may see clouds linger into the afternoon which may keep temps just a bit cooler.
318 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Midlevel zonal flow associated with an upper level low pressure system is allowing drier air to quickly move into ArkLaMiss. A weak frontal boundary located in the NW portion of the CWA is slowly moving, but is leading a relatively cooler airmass into the region. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout today, with highs ranging from the low 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s in the south. /AJ/ Quasi-zonal flow will exist across the region through the course of the upcoming weekend, as we reside between troughing along the East Coast and ridging across the nation's mid-section. High pressure at the surface will steadily build east through the forecast area during this time.
Tonight Through Saturday The latest surface analysis places the cold front south and east of the area this afternoon, with dry air and clearing settling in across the state. High pressure with drier air (dew-points in the 40s) will continue moving in from the WNW.
As the upper low moves east into the Great Lakes region, an upper level ridge builds over the Intermountain West, slowly moving east. Some upper level clouds may build tonight as moisture advection at upper levels occurs ahead of the ridge. Meanwhile, high pressure builds at the surface. A backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast into Nebraska on Friday night. While it will not have much of an impact on overnight temperatures, which should remain near seasonal in the low to mid 30s, it will help cool temperatures a few degrees by Saturday.
254 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry conditions over the area today, before a Pacific wave lifts into western Montana tonight, shifting the ridge axis to the east. Increased cloud cover and cooler conditions can be expected Saturday, as troughing continues to move into the region.
High pressure and a mix of some high and mid level cloud cover is hinted at by models and this looks reasonable. This will make for a cool, but nice day with highs only reaching the lower to mid 60s near and east of the I-65 corridor and the upper 60s further west. The cooler daytime conditions/light winds and little cloud cover should provide another good radiational cooling night tonight. It will be chilly again with lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s.
For this weekend, Saturday will be the warmer day of the two.
342 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Midlevel zonal flow associated with an upper level low pressure system is allowing drier air to quickly move into ArkLaMiss. A weak frontal boundary located in the NW portion of the CWA is slowly moving, but is leading a relatively cooler airmass into the region. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout today, with highs ranging from the low 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s in the south. /AJ/ Quasi-zonal flow will exist across the region through the course of the upcoming weekend, as we reside between troughing along the East Coast and ridging across the nation's mid-section. High pressure at the surface will steadily build east through the forecast area during this time.
Highs today are expected to range from the lower to middle 40s across the north, to 45 to 50 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the middle to upper 20s across the north, with lows in the lower to middle 40s across east- central Wisconsin.
High clouds are a bit slower and thinner than expected today but northwest winds and cool high pressure were still keeping temps in the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon. Warm-air advection will be the main player for weather through the early portions of the weekend, with plenty of sun allowing for a warmer day Friday though moisture atop the cooler surface airmass may saturate enough for some elevated showers and thunderstorms in southern areas Friday night into early Saturday with MUCAPE near 500 J/kg though effective shear is not impressive.
A broken line of showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will enter into the interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL by midnight ahead of the approaching weak cold front. The weak cold front will sag southward across our forecast area late tonight into early Friday, and looks to stall near the coast through Friday afternoon. Lows Friday night will be cooler with 50s across the area, with the exception of lower to mid 60s along the coast. Highs both Friday and Saturday will be in the lower 80s over most of our area, except upper 70s to around 80 degrees across interior the portions of southeast MS and southwest AL.
Near the surface, high pressure is stretched across much of western Colorado. Quiet weather will continue across the central plains as high pressure prevails across the region. The lowest readings are expected along the Arkansas River basin. For tomorrow, a light southerly wind is expected as high pressure shifts off to the east. Normal highs are about 10 degrees cooler. A warm front is expected to bisect the state. Will have to watch the area for far southwest Kansas, where RHâs will be the lowest.
206 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A dissipating cold front will stall out overhead and allow for lingering light showers in the Laurels and Alleghenies. High pressure will visit for a short time early Saturday.
Winds will shift out of the south later this evening and could bring in some warmer temperatures. Friday will be warmer than today as warm-air advection begins in earnest. Rain chances will increase tomorrow night, especially along and east of I-35, as a warm front lifts through the area. There remains a lot of uncertainty between the 12 UTC model suite as to how far north the warm front progresses Friday night and Saturday. The 12 UTC GFS remains the most progressive and brings the front all the way north of I-70 while the NAM and ECMWF are further south, along the Highway 54 corridor. Surface-based storms are possible south of the warm front Saturday afternoon, but capping and the lack of any significant forcing mechanism will likely limit any surface-based convection.
125 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A cold front will exit the region this evening allowing much cooler air to filter in to close the work week.
Insolation could be hindered from a low cloud deck until the afternoon keeping temperatures in the low 80s.
Winds are light and variable and temperatures are in the lower to middle 60s. Dry weather is expected today for our area, with high temperatures today ranging from the lower 80s in the Hill Country to the upper 80s out west.
1252 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Scattered to isolated showers will persist for the next couple of days as upper low pressure encroaches over the region.
Surface ridging is entering from the north today and will provide the Northland with colder temperatures and light northerly winds. Aloft, cyclonic flow over the region due to an upper level low near the Hudson Bay will send a few impulses of vorticity over the region. As we head into the work week a low pressure system is projected to move across our south. Model trends have continually pulled this low further south so we have opted to further decrease the PoPs across our southern counties. By the midweek point the 00Z suite of model guidance suggests a deep upper level trough propagating across.
The breezy southeasterly winds will slowly spread eastward on Saturday, with the highest gusts remaining along the Missouri River. Weak ridging aloft, along with some WAA, highs on Saturday should be warmer than today.
Exiting upper trough continues to support a few rain showers over NW SD, with a couple hundredths at best reported.
This is most likely associated with upper level trough and the last umph for the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be 15 or so degrees cooler than last night.
A tranquil pattern will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft slowly shifts east through the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. As for temperatures, a prevailing southerly flow will draw warmer air up into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures up around 15C in central Kansas to near 20C out along the Colorado border. Primarily dry conditions will linger into Saturday as weak ridging aloft transitions farther east across the Central Plains.
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The 500 mb pattern consists of a closed low in southern James Bay which is embedded in a broad trough over the ern U. with a trough off the west coast and a ridge in the Rockies. The closed low moves little this forecast period and keeps the upper Great Lakes in an upper level trough. An upper level low near James Bay will continue to maintain northerly to northwesterly flow over Lake Superior.
/issued 843 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ The cold front has cleared the Mid-South and precipitation has shifted well south and east of the CWA. /issued 313 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ Latest surface analysis places a cold front pushing towards the Tennessee River. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with high temperatures tomorrow warming into the low 70s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
Friday afternoon will see warmer temperatures (mid 70s to mid 80s) as some ridging starts to build over us.
436 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A dissipating cold front will stall out overhead and allow for lingering light showers in the Laurels and Alleghenies. High pressure will visit for a short time early Saturday.
326 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Cool and showery today then rain late in the weekend as upper troughing prevails - Upper low will bring another cool day with some lake enhanced rain showers in northerly flow.
1101 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 We will see some lingering clouds this afternoon to early evening associated with the low that provided yesterday's rain. With high pressure moving in now the forecast is trending towards clear sky and light winds with little chance for any precipitation. With both overnights expected to have temperatures fall near to below freezing.
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Scattered to isolated showers will persist for the next couple of days as upper low pressure encroaches over the region.
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 West Texas remains under northwesterly flow aloft early this morning, with weak subsidence and subtle midlevel drying observed via satellite as weak upper level ridging continues to build overhead. Overall, the synoptic pattern will not change significantly today, with the aforementioned weak upper ridging progged to continue flattening slightly as the ridge axis moves overhead.
Upper level analysis places lows over James Bay and off the British Colombia coast, with modest ridging in between over the Rockies. For today, aforementioned short wave scoots off to the southeast as ridge creeps easterly as bit, resulting in clearing skies. Tonight, ridge pushes east but starts breaking down as a short wave swings around aforementioned low off to the west. Breezy conditions across the area on Saturday with lee trough to the west and high to the east.
Northwesterly flow is apparent over the central CONUS, with a low- amplitude ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough just offshore the wester coast. By Saturday, the trough off the coast is expected to have made it to the Intermountain West, leaving the low-amplitude ridge overhead the central CONUS. A lee-cyclone is expected to form over southeastern Colorado, with a warm front extending across northern Kansas.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 46 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 46 70 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 46 68 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 46 66 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Weak ridging aloft will build into west Texas today. Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon, with no precipitation expected. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer, as well, with low clouds Saturday morning confined to the southeastern Hill Country counties.
Mid level clouds return from the west as a warm front moves across the area.
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas.
751 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 An upper low meanders near James Bay, Canada today with a trough that reaches down to the Gulf coast and eases eastward. This will nudge a weak cold front toward the GA/FL border this evening. Atlantic high pressure extends across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico with a prevailing easterly flow. 5 inches or less but with the far south on the high side. A weak cold front traverses the waters Sat and stalls across south FL Sun and into early next.
440 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 One more day of tranquil weather across SE WY and the NE Panhandle, as H5 ridging sweeps east across the Rockies. Saturday morning, the ridge axis will be east of the area, as the much larger trough continues to deepen along the west coast. The leading edge of the trough will be moving across WY Saturday.
Showers will expand across northern Nevada region on Saturday with cooler temperatures.
Surface ridging is entering from the north today and will provide the Northland with colder temperatures and light northerly winds. Aloft, cyclonic flow over the region due to an upper level low near the Hudson Bay will send a few impulses of vorticity over the region. As we head into the work week a low pressure system is projected to move across our south. Model trends have continually pulled this low further south so we have opted to further decrease the PoPs across our southern counties. By the midweek point the 00Z suite of model guidance suggests a deep upper level trough propagating across. Surface ridging will be building into the region today providing light winds out of the north.
Governing upper low remains quasi-stationary near southern Hudson Bay amidst churning PV anomaly. Atop the mixed-layer, H8 temps continue trending lower as the elevated cold frontal slope makes further inroads across Southeast Michigan. Another cool start on Saturday as the thermal trough lingers and the gradient extends slightly south of the MI/OH border. A touch warmer with highs in the low-mid 50s, but colder overnight with plenty of frost as lows more broadly dip into the mid 30s.
/issued 421 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ A quiet night across the Mid South will lead to another nice fall day for the region as drier and cooler air settles in. This cool and drier regime will be short lived as a warm front is expected to lift northward across the region late tonight into Saturday.
649 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A cold front pushes east to the coast today. Another disturbance will skirt by to the north tonight with high pressure building back into the region for the weekend. Low level thicknesses/8h temps drop today-tonight so expect cooler temperatures, but still at or just above normal for most of the area for late October. Highs today should range from the lower to mid 50s western slopes of WV/VA/NC to lower 70s piedmont. Temperatures by Sat morning will be in the lower to mid 40s west to upper 40s/near 50 east. Forecast confidence is high on all elements, but lower on cloud cover in the east today, as some models are slowing the front down with another low pressure wave moving along it which could keep clouds in longer east of a Lynchburg-Danville/Greensboro line.
By 15z, sites should remain VFR as drier and cooler air enters the region. /AJ/ Midlevel zonal flow associated with an upper level low pressure system is allowing drier air to quickly move into ArkLaMiss. A weak frontal boundary located in the NW portion of the CWA is slowly moving, but is leading a relatively cooler airmass into the region. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout today, with highs ranging from the low 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s in the south. /AJ/ Quasi-zonal flow will exist across the region through the course of the upcoming weekend, as we reside between troughing along the East Coast and ridging across the nation's mid-section. High pressure at the surface will steadily build east through the forecast area during this time.
635 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The 500 mb pattern consists of a closed low in southern James Bay which is embedded in a broad trough over the ern U. with a trough off the west coast and a ridge in the Rockies. The closed low moves little this forecast period and keeps the upper Great Lakes in an upper level trough. An upper level low near James Bay will continue to maintain northerly to northwesterly flow over Lake Superior.
337 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 One more day of tranquil weather across SE WY and the NE Panhandle, as H5 ridging sweeps east across the Rockies. Saturday morning, the ridge axis will be east of the area, as the much larger trough continues to deepen along the west coast. The leading edge of the trough will be moving across WY Saturday.
657 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A dissipating cold front will stall out overhead and allow for lingering light showers in the Laurels and Alleghenies. High pressure will visit for a short time early Saturday.
358 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 High pressure will allow for one more day of warm weather across the entire area Friday. A small ridge of high pressure over Montana will be sandwiched between two larger, stronger upper-level troughs Friday. Mid to upper level clouds will increase throughout the day Friday, as moisture associated with the approaching Pacific trough filters overhead. Precipitation associated with the approaching trough will be primarily over Southwest Montana and along the divide Friday night.
317 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A flat upper level ridge will build over the area today with the flow aloft becoming more WSW. Meanwhile, a sfc lee trough will become established along the front range. On Saturday, upper level high pressure will be over the Central Plains States with a flat upper level trough over the Western U.