Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The region remains in moist southwesterly flow aloft between amplified ridging to our east and broad troughing across the western CONUS. A surface cold front extends northeastward from northwestern Kansas into north central Nebraska and into southeast Kansas. Broad isentropic lift over the area has produced scattered showers across northern portions of the CWA overnight ahead of this cold front.
530 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Hot conditions are again expected today as that upper level ridge holds strong over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley regions. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge will hold for one more day with hot conditions again expected for Thursday.
933 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures into the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft, along with a very dry column, will lead to a sunny forecast. The amplifying upper ridge will continue to slowly trudge eastward, with the axis creeping into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
340 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 The last remnant mid level clouds associated with associated with moisture from yesterday's trough passage will dissipate over the San Juan mountains this morning. Overnight the trough will move east into the western Great Basin with is closed 500 mb center over northern NV and southwest ID.
956 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A backdoor cold front was moving south to southwestward over southern Georgia this morning. Highs will be in the mid 80s at the beaches and the low 90s inland, possibly mid 90s across the Suwannee Valley. A cold front will push south to southwest across the area today and tonight, and east northeast winds will increase once again to 20-25 knots offshore and around 20 knots nearshore tonight and Thursday.
615 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A cold front will push south of the forecast area early today. The temperature guidance was close with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Further drying should occur tonight with ridging building into the area from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late. Cloud coverage will be limited to cirrus off of the higher terrain in northwest upper-level flow.
As a result, expect increasing clouds and slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon.
/issued 444 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid level ridging will provide subsidence over deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures Today and Thursday are expected to range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees far inland. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, except for the lower 80s near the coast.
What's more interesting is that temperatures are running about 6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. With the lower dew points, that might actually be tolerable compared to the last few days.
Wyoming will be between yeaterday's wave and the approach of the next longwave trough. Increasing cloud cover may start to move into the NW Parks late tonight as the initial effects of the trough start to arrive. The trough of low pressure approaching Thursday will tighten the pressure gradient and bring breezy conditions over much of the state. Precipitation will also increase Thursday with the trough's approach, but chances will be isolated until later in the day due to this system's slower progression.
/issued 342 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ Latest regional surface analysis indicates weak low pressure over SW GA as backdoor front begins to move in from the Carolinas.
523 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Current surface map places low in southern Manitoba, with cold front in the eastern Dakotas. High pressure located across Wyoming. Western CONUS trof moves into the Rockies on Thursday.
A cold upper trough is moving towards the coast this morning, and instability associated with the cold air aloft is producing thunderstorms over the waters. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, though confidence is only moderate on staying in the low 60s in places like the Rogue Valley. Drying, northerly flow will follow the upper trough Thursday as it pushes eastward out of the forecast area.
806 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Latest RAP model shows a back door cold front easing into the forecast PWAT values run near 2 inches this afternoon. High pressure on the Gulf coast east of the Mississippi Valley sinks into the Gulf today as the front moves in.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place Hurricane Humberto near Bermuda, Tropical Depression Imelda near Houston, an upper level trough along the West Coast of the United States, and a upper level ridge axis entrenched across portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. Mainly rain free conditions are expected across the Mid-South today as an upper level ridge will remain in place across the region.
244 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Another trough of low pressure will impact the the region Wednesday and Thursday with breezy to gusty winds. Light precipitation will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra especially near Yosemite on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Cold air on west to northwesterly winds is moving in behind the cold front which is set up near to just west of a line from ABR-HON. The center of high pressure over western WY and the low still over south central Canada will result in a pressure gradient continuing through the late morning hours across much of the area, and particularly north central SD. The cooler air should result in high temperatures being around 10 degrees lower than yesterday, in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. When the period opens, the longwave trof currently carving out across the CONUS west coast will be making its way toward the central and northern plains region.
1013 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure will build to our north and is expected to dominate over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic region the remainder of the work week. This high will allow for dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures. The high will settle to our south this weekend. High pressure will build to the north. Temperatures today will rise into the 70s, then fall into the lower 50s tonight.
408 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Cold air on west to northwesterly winds is moving in behind the cold front which is set up near to just west of a line from ABR-HON. The center of high pressure over western WY and the low still over south central Canada will result in a pressure gradient continuing through the late morning hours across much of the area, and particularly north central SD. The cooler air should result in high temperatures being around 10 degrees lower than yesterday, in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. When the period opens, the longwave trof currently carving out across the CONUS west coast will be making its way toward the central and northern plains region.
High pressure ridge over southeast Quebec keeps fair weather in place for tonight, with the typical autumn valley fog.
Tonight will see continued clouds move across the nrn fcst area before clearing out late night as upper low continues to move northeast.
The associated cold front is beginning to make some headway into our CWA, but is in the process of stalling, and may stall a little earlier than previous forecasts.
/issued 328 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, West Central Texas was stuck between two weather systems: Tropical Depression Imelda, moving northward into East Texas, and a broad area of low pressure developing over the Four Corners just southeast of a strong upper trough. These two systems will result in a relatively weak area of high pressure for at least this morning, leading to light and variable winds for most locations.
Late tonight chances for showers and storms move into the area tied with an upper level low at 500mb moving through Ontario. The trough axis of this low will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid level ridging will provide subsidence over deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures Today and Thursday are expected to range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees far inland. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, except for the lower 80s near the coast.
644 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 North to northwesterly winds, in association with a cold front that moved through the area overnight, will continue through mid- afternoon. Winds will then begin to transition back out of the south to southeast as weak high pressure builds over the region, this will also allow for moisture to begin streaming back into the area.
140 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures into the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft, along with a very dry column, will lead to a sunny forecast. The amplifying upper ridge will continue to slowly trudge eastward, with the axis creeping into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
225 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region this afternoon.
As advertised previously, significantly drier/cooler air pushing into tonight and Thurs. High pressure at the surface that was more centered along the eastern coast is expected to shift more over the area. Coupled with high pressure aloft, the area is expected to remain dry through at least the weekend, but will also allow for temperatures to begin to increase back above seasonal norms by the weekend.
357 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Feeling the effects of an upper-level ridge extending from the central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, most of our forecast area today has been on the warm and dry side. As Imelda continues to weaken tomorrow and lift northward across East Texas, a weak cold front nudged south and westward across the eastern CONUS will seep into our forecast area from the northeast.
Currently, a weak surface front/trough over the southern High Plains of western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles may support renewed development of isolated/scattered convection near northwestern Oklahoma through this evening.
Strong upper ridge will allow for another day of near record to record high temperatures across portions of eastern Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. GOES-16 Satellite trends place Hurricane Humberto near Bermuda, Tropical Depression Imelda near Houston, an upper level trough along the West Coast of the United States, and a upper level ridge axis entrenched across portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. Mainly rain free conditions are expected across the Mid-South today as an upper level ridge will remain in place across the region.
This trough has already helped trigger some widely scattered precip in the Hill Country, while farther south a second axis of convergence is aiding is mostly isolated activity. By Thursday afternoon, short range ensembles generally favor a repeat of today's isolated to scattered precip, albeit displaced a bit farther east given an upper ridge nudging east across the Rio Grande.
This Evening-Thu Night: Quiet weather continues for all areas as a strong upper-deck ridge remains anchored from the Rio Grande all the way to Southern Hudson Bay. Such an evolving mid-upper pattern would cause a weak cold front to stall across KS Sat & Sat night with the front situated in an E/W manner through Central KS.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon in the higher terrain and may affect western terminals.
Storm coverage and intensity should gradually trend upward starting tomorrow afternoon as a broad trough currently moving into the western states begins to approach the region.
1116 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Current surface map places low in southern Manitoba, with cold front in the eastern Dakotas. High pressure located across Wyoming. Western CONUS trof moves into the Rockies on Thursday.
Given mixing along the boundary after midnight with the backdoor cold front, wind gusts around 15 mph look possible.
At the surface a back door front moves into south FL tonight and stalls as high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. For Fri-Wed: Mid level ridging builds in across the eastern U. during the weekend then slides west and south early in the week as a low tracking across eastern Canada swings a trough over the eastern seaboard by midweek. The high pressure weakens somewhat Sun-Mon as Tropical Storm Jerry tracks across the Atlantic. High pressure builds back into the area from Canada Tue-Wed. A front with some showers and thunderstorms exits the waters to the south this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the north and dominates through the weekend.
Upper level ridging will continue to hold firm over the region. The 850 mb ridge axis will slowly slide eastward, allowing more of a southerly component to the low level winds on Thursday. Updated at 259 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Upper level ridging will remain in place through much of the weekend, keeping the region hot and dry. The ridge will begin to break down as a trough swings in from the west, dragging with it a weak surface cold front.
1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Hot conditions are again expected today as that upper level ridge holds strong over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley regions. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge will hold for one more day with hot conditions again expected for Thursday.
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Upper level low pressure system over southern MAN will continue to move northeast tonight. Upper level ridge will move over the area. Upper level trough off the CA/OR coast will move into the Intermountain West by 12Z Fri.
237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure will remain in place over the region through this weekend. The high that was sitting over our region will sink southeasterly out of our region as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. A strong upper level ridge will remain in place over the eastern half of the United States. High pressure will be in place at the surface over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US through this evening. Overnight, temps will drop down into the 50s with a few areas in the higher elevations dropping into the upper 40s.
144 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Water vapor shows our area between departing trof over the Upper Midwest and trof along the west coast. At the surface, low center is over southern Manitoba with ridge building into western SD. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected through much of Thursday with upper trof building into the Rockies by late in the day. Strengthening low level jet and theta-e advection combined with short wave ejecting from the trof over the Rockies should result in developing thunderstorms Thursday night.
405 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above average normal temperatures into the weekend. High pressure will continue to provide clear and quiet weather tonight.
High pressure will continue to dominate the short term period with above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
/issued 806 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ Latest RAP model shows a back door cold front easing into the forecast PWAT values run near 2 inches this afternoon. High pressure on the Gulf coast east of the Mississippi Valley sinks into the Gulf today as the front moves in.
Warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds are expected today ahead of the next storm system approaching Utah from the Pacific Northwest.
The quiet short term will end with the approaching h500 trough, which is initially on the west coast.
1111 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A cooler and less humid airmass was overspreading the area late this morning as Canadian high pressure ridges into the region. Further drying should occur tonight with high pressure building into the area from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late. Cloud coverage will be limited to cirrus off of the higher terrain in northwest upper-level flow.
Cigs will likely drop to to IFR late in the period as the low pressure circulation with TD Imelda's remnants shifts north across the region.
The highest Pops will be across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country.
209 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery is currently showing an upper level low pressure system over western Washington and Oregon.
306 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 As of 19Z Wednesday afternoon, the longwave midlevel pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with a very-amplified ridge across the eastern US and troughing across the west. At the surface an inverted trough extended from the TX Panhandle northeastward through north- central KS and into southwest MN. Furthermore, if any OFB does push into the area, temperatures could be cooler than currently expected, although another warm/humid day is most likely with highs near 90.
With weak low pressure pushing slowly north, feel some convective bands will form on the east and south side.
We will go on the high side of guidance for Thursday, a persistence approach.
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures into the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to provide clear and quiet weather tonight.
140 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Increased cloud cover thanks to proximity of back door cold front trying to encroach upon the area.
1111 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 The last remnant mid level clouds associated with associated with moisture from yesterday's trough passage will dissipate over the San Juan mountains this morning. Overnight the trough will move east into the western Great Basin with is closed 500 mb center over northern NV and southwest ID.
Cooler weather is on the way! First, the area has to get through a more active weather pattern than there as been as of most recently. An upper level trough is expected to swing towards the northeast into south-central Canada as it traverses across the central U.
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 North to northwesterly winds, in association with a cold front that moved through the area overnight, will continue through mid- afternoon. Winds will then begin to transition back out of the south to southeast as weak high pressure builds over the region, this will also allow for moisture to begin streaming back into the area.
By about 10 pm or so the low level jet will bring some convergence and moisture back into the area and thunderstorms become likely over parts of northwest IA and northeast NE. By mid morning Thursday capping begins to develop with upper level ridging and the low level jet loses influence so expect most of Thursday to be dry. By Thursday night heights aloft begin to collapse as the upper level trough to the west shifts east. Will have the higher chances near highway 14 late Thursday night.
High pressure stretches from the northeastern United States, southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. A trough axis lingers to the south of Humberto and straddles the Windward Passage.
What's more interesting is that temperatures are running about 6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. With the lower dew points, that might actually be tolerable compared to the last few days. This will occur as the center of dry high pressure moves down the east coast states.
Upper level low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest today will continue widespread precipitation across much of the forecast. As the low moves over the forecast area tonight, another precipitation band develops over south-central Idaho bringing periods of moderate rainfall.
The ECMWF/NAM and GFS model guidance all show a generally dry pattern continuing for the region as 500 mb ridging steadily strengthens. /issued 444 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid level ridging will provide subsidence over deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures Today and Thursday are expected to range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees far inland. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, except for the lower 80s near the coast.
with a cold front trailing south across far western Minnesota/far northwest Iowa/southeast Nebraska. High pressure over southern Quebec and New England ridges back into Lower Michigan. Upper level ridge axis roughly northeast-southwest across the upper Lakes. while a compact short wave trough/dynamic PV anomaly spinning northeast across southeast Manitoba. Upstream cold front will make slow progress across the upper Midwest tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation threat tonight as cold front slowly moves into the upper Lakes. Narrow theta-e ridge and instability axis expected to slowly advance east ahead of the front.
Dew points are projected to reach the low the mid 60s by Thursday afternoon.
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A less humid airmass will overspread the area through the weekend as Canadian high pressure ridges into the region. Further drying should occur tonight with high pressure building into the area from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late.
Scattered showers and storms over the higher terrain and adjacent plains this afternoon will become more numerous and spread east by late week. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the current forecast cycle with slightly cooler temperatures only expected if we see some clouds and rain.
1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure anchored just east of the region will sustain this stretch of dry and stable conditions through the taf period. This ensures VFR conditions with clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 84 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 60 84 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 61 85 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 79 52 83 / 10 10 0 0.
Warm and dry conditions will through most of tomorrow for the Mid-South due to upper ridging.
/28/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Feeling the effects of an upper-level ridge extending from the central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, most of our forecast area today has been on the warm and dry side. As Imelda continues to weaken tomorrow and lift northward across East Texas, a weak cold front nudged south and westward across the eastern CONUS will seep into our forecast area from the northeast.
625 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A less humid airmass will overspread the area through the weekend as Canadian high pressure ridges into the region. Satellite showing clouds eroding across the area as high pressure builds in from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late.
252 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A trough of low pressure will impact the the region through and Thursday with breezy to gusty winds. Light precipitation will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra especially near Yosemite tonight through Thursday.
Isolated thunderstorms also in eastern Oregon closer to the upper low centered over the Cascades. Showers should increase on the Idaho side later tonight and Thursday as the low moves into our CWA.
Expansive high pressure was located across the eastern CONUS. People are advised to avoid getting in the water as the High Risk for life-threatening rip currents will also continue through the weekend.
This will help overnight temperatures to continue to drop into the low 60s/50s. Upper level low pressure system over southern MAN will continue to move northeast tonight. Upper level ridge will move over the area. Upper level trough off the CA/OR coast will move into the Intermountain West by 12Z Fri.
Southwest winds will continue to intensify as the upper level jet rounding the base of the trough approaches the CWA. Expect temperatures to climb a few degrees warmer Thursday as we mix through a deeper layer in the atmosphere while increased cloud cover Thursday night will keep temperatures mild overnight as well.