Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Its a bit warmer tonight than it was last night but dew points remain mostly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The exception is well South of Memphis near Tunica and Clarksdale west of a Warm front where dew points have surged into the lower 40s. Morning lows should be in the low to mid 40s. The warm front will shift off to the Northeast tomorrow and high temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s. Cloudy skies will return tomorrow with a strong cold front approaching the Mississippi tomorrow evening. /issued 636 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/ Quiet conditions continue across the area as high pressure moves east setting up strong south to southwesterly flow across the southeast.
Cold front will approach from the west and will likely begin triggering convection in southeast Texas by mid to late afternoon.
/22/ Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will slide east of the region overnight, and off the East Coast Wednesday. This is in response to a strengthening and fast moving storm system digging southeast across the Great Plains, and toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Conditions will be slightly warmer tonight as a result, with some clouds creeping into the CWA around day break Wednesday. On Wednesday, the aforementioned storm system will send an attendant cold front east toward the western portion of the forecast area late in the period.
403 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 The latest water vapor images show a deep trough over the Intermountain West with two potent vorticity maxima. A strong surface cold front was over eastern MT, and just about to enter the CWA. The ensemble guidance agrees well on a period of snow, very strong northwest winds, and much colder air tonight through part of Wednesday as the trough/front progress through the CWA. Dry weather is on tap for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as ensemble guidance agrees well on a ridge moving toward the CWA and 850-mb temperatures rising by 15+ Celsius.
522 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period, but expect a decline in categories as rain showers and low clouds move in ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday morning and afternoon. Winds will also shift to the north behind the strong cold front tomorrow from northwest to southeast.
558 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 Overnight, the forecast area will remain ahead of an approaching upper-level trough exiting the Rocky Mountains. On Wednesday, the upper-level trough will navigate the central U. This progression will result in a cold front traversing the eastern MO through the afternoon and western IL into the early evening. Increasing lift associated with low to mid-level frontogenesis and the leading edge of the trough will result in light precip along and just behind the cold front. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected at times with strong southerly low-level flow ahead of the cold front evidenced 850-hPa winds of 50 to 60 kt.
However, have not dropped the High Wind Warning yet in hopes of maybe some last minute verification, but the potential for remaining counties to hit 58 MPH is quickly diminishing. TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: High Wind Warning has replaced the High Wind Watch for this afternoon and overnight. Most of the warm frontal precipitation has lifted into North Dakota or Saskatchewan, with clear skies over much of northeast Montana. Colder air will linger on Wednesday even as upper ridge begins to rebound over the west.
A dry cold front will move across Arizona from north to south tonight through Wednesday, ushering in sharply colder temperatures and gusty northeast winds.
The High Wind Warning for the west just came into effect. A significant mid level trough, spilling onto the Montana Plains as of this writing, will cut off over Nebraska and Iowa Wednesday. Building in behind that 990MB low is a 1033MB high pressure center. A strong H5 ridge builds in for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with moderating temperatures and some sunshine.
Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday behind a cold front as brisk north winds develop with the highest speeds down the Colorado River Valley.
439 PM PST Tue Dec 22 2020 Updated Air Quality Issues section High pressure over the region will keep the weather dry and stable through Christmas Day.
412 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 Dry and mild conditions are expected Wednesday before the return of rain going to snow with a passing cold front on Christmas Eve.
/issued 344 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/ Quiet conditions continue across the area as high pressure moves east setting up strong south to southwesterly flow across the southeast.
306 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 Upper level ridging and high pressure over the Mid State spells sunshine and mild temperatures on this mid-December afternoon. Southwest flow will help temperatures rebound tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
655 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 Dry and mild conditions are expected Wednesday before the return of rain going to snow with a passing cold front on Christmas Eve.
145 PM PST Tue Dec 22 2020 High pressure over the region will keep the weather dry and stable through Christmas Day.
623 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 Mild temperatures with rain by afternoon Wednesday will briefly change to snow behind a sharp cold front and plummeting temperatures Wednesday night.
Wind speeds are expected to remain up overnight as they slowly veer to the west and northwest ahead of a strong cold front which will barrel through on Wednesday morning. Highs tomorrow will be 20- 25 degrees cooler than today.
717 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 Dry high pressure will hold across the region through Wednesday.
Upper level ridging and high pressure over the Mid State spells sunshine and mild temperatures on this mid-December afternoon. Southwest flow will help temperatures rebound tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
324 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will slide east of the region overnight, and off the East Coast Wednesday. This is in response to a strengthening and fast moving storm system digging southeast across the Great Plains, and toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Conditions will be slightly warmer tonight as a result, with some clouds creeping into the CWA around day break Wednesday. On Wednesday, the aforementioned storm system will send an attendant cold front east toward the western portion of the forecast area late in the period.
217 PM MST Tue Dec 22 2020 The latest water vapor images show a deep trough over the Intermountain West with two potent vorticity maxima. A strong surface cold front was over eastern MT, and just about to enter the CWA. The ensemble guidance agrees well on a period of snow, very strong northwest winds, and much colder air tonight through part of Wednesday as the trough/front progress through the CWA. Dry weather is on tap for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as ensemble guidance agrees well on a ridge moving toward the CWA and 850-mb temperatures rising by 15+ Celsius.
Slightly warmer weather and much less wind is expected Thursday into the weekend. Many areas along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim will struggle to get past the freezing mark. Thursday still looks quiet and warmer, with a weak low potentially bringing some light showers/flurries to the region on Christmas Day. Much cooler conditions are expected on Wednesday.
Upper ridge builds over the region Wed and Thu. Low level inversion over the Columbia basin and valleys will increase the freezing fog coverage Wed night into Thu night.
1033 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 High pressure centered over the Appalachians supports moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to near 70 with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Lows may fall into the mid 60s for locations across the Lower Keys. From synopsis, a high pressure cell over the Appalachians this evening will move east to the Delmarva on Wednesday, then pass north of Bermuda Wednesday night. A strong cold front will push through the Keys Thursday night, followed by strong northerly breezes on Christmas Day.
Mostly clear skies this evening as high pressure ridge slowly retreats to the northeast. VFR conditions and breezy 150-180 deg winds forecast to prevail at all sites through the period, but ceilings will begin to decrease to MVFR by the end of the period at CHA as a cold front and precip approaches from the west. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 44 50 23 32 / 10 90 90 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 45 51 20 29 / 10 90 100 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 44 49 19 29 / 10 90 100 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 44 51 17 24 / 10 90 100 60 20 TN.
Mostly clear skies this evening as high pressure ridge slowly retreats to the northeast.
317 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move through the Carolinas Thursday afternoon/evening followed by high pressure and temperatures well below normal for the end of the week. Active weather returns as winds shift to the south as high pressure moves offshore Wednesday night, bringing a return of moisture transport ahead of an approaching strong cold front. A strong cold front will be moving across the area Thursday evening with a strongly forced convective line and heavy synoptic winds.
Scattered light showers and possibly brief IFR ceilings will spread across western AR in advance of the cold front. Showers that do develop ahead of the advancing cold front will be light with little to no aviation impact expected. Cold front pushes through the terminals from early morning through mid afternoon with clearing skies and gusty post frontal winds. /Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/ Low level moisture will be on the increase overnight ahead of a strong cold front which will move across the area Wednesday morning.
351 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move through the Carolinas Thursday afternoon/evening followed by high pressure and temperatures well below normal for the end of the week. A strong cold front will be moving across the area Thursday evening with a strongly forced convective line and heavy synoptic winds.
High pressure will follow through late week, with valley inversions developing. Utah remains under a north-northwest flow aloft this evening as an upper trough continues to shift across the Rockies. This secondary trough will bring additional lift to the forecast area along with colder air aloft which will result in some destabilization of the airmass. High pressure will build into the area for the remainder of the week, leading to dry and stable conditions with strengthening inversions.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will slide east of the region overnight, and off the East Coast Wednesday. This is in response to a strengthening and fast moving storm system digging southeast across the Great Plains, and toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Conditions will be slightly warmer tonight as a result, with some clouds creeping into the CWA around day break Wednesday. On Wednesday, the aforementioned storm system will send an attendant cold front east toward the western portion of the forecast area late in the period.
242 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 Dry high pressure will hold across the region today. A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front will sweep south across the area this morning with much cooler air overspreading the area and strong, gusty north winds.
356 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 An upper ridge will move across the forecast area this morning with the upper flow transitioning to southwest by afternoon. A cold front will stretch along the MS River Valley this evening as moisture begins to surge northward into the forecast area. As a deep trough moves from the central states into the east. the cold front will progress across GA on Thursday. With such a sharp trough there will possibly be a few thunderstorms across north and central GA later tonight and Thursday. 5 inches on the highest peaks.
Another Cold Front. The short-term forecast this forecast cycle includes another dry cold front passage, along with gusty winds. However, another cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, on Wednesday, and bring gusty surface winds, from the northwest, along with colder temperatures.
Patchy fog/freezing fog may develop across the Columbia Basin and other valleys toward the end of the period, but confidence is too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time. Upper ridge builds over the region Wed and Thu. Low level inversion over the Columbia basin and valleys will increase the freezing fog coverage Wed night into Thu night.
Its a bit warmer tonight than it was last night but dew points remain mostly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The exception is well South of Memphis near Tunica and Clarksdale west of a Warm front where dew points have surged into the lower 40s. Morning lows should be in the low to mid 40s. The warm front will shift off to the Northeast tomorrow and high temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s. Cloudy skies will return tomorrow with a strong cold front approaching the Mississippi tomorrow evening. /issued 344 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/ Quiet conditions continue across the area as high pressure moves east setting up strong south to southwesterly flow across the southeast.
1107 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 Overnight, the forecast area will remain ahead of an approaching upper-level trough exiting the Rocky Mountains. On Wednesday, the upper-level trough will navigate the central U. This progression will result in a cold front traversing the eastern MO through the afternoon and western IL into the early evening. Increasing lift associated with low to mid-level frontogenesis and the leading edge of the trough will result in light precip along and just behind the cold front. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected at times with strong southerly low-level flow ahead of the cold front evidenced 850-hPa winds of 50 to 60 kt.
320 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Latest 09z surface analysis shows elongated low pressure from southwest Minnesota to eastern Nebraska and warm front extending east into northern Wisconsin. Temperatures south of warm front have warmed into the middle 30s to middle 40s across the forecast area per latest metars. The mid tropospheric ridge builds in with temperatures responding with highs returning to the 20s Christmas afternoon.
541 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Latest 09z surface analysis shows elongated low pressure from southwest Minnesota to eastern Nebraska and warm front extending east into northern Wisconsin. Temperatures south of warm front have warmed into the middle 30s to middle 40s across the forecast area per latest metars. The mid tropospheric ridge builds in with temperatures responding with highs returning to the 20s Christmas afternoon.
A deepening upper level trough will push across the Northern Plains today increasing southerly winds and moisture transport across the Southeast. By mid afternoon showers will spread east ahead of an approaching cold front. Look for rain to continue for most of the night as temperatures fall into the low 30s.
541 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Main concerns through tonight will be windy conditions today and precipitation types with a strong cold front moving through the area. Latest runs of the CAMS have been consistent that a band of rain will develop later this morning as both the GFS/NAM shows frontogenesis increasing as the upper trough deepens over the central CONUS. As the upper trough moves across the area late tonight into tomorrow morning, added a chance of snow flurries to the eastern CWA. Britt EPS/GEFS means are still showing the upper trough lifting east into the northeast CONUS and southeast Canada by late week and the weekend.
602 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 12Z 23DEC20 TAFs Showers and tstorms associated with a cold front expected later today. A cold front approaching the region today will bring rain chances back into the forecast, starting this morning in southeast Texas. Finally, behind the cold front, winds will be quite strong, with sustained winds over 20 mph expected. Dry and cool weather is forecast for Christmas Day, with morning lows at or below freezing in most places along and north of the I-10 corridor.
(Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will be in place across West Central Texas as another cold front passes through the area.
Forecast soundings show a narrow window of opportunity locally to mix down strong wind gusts from the low-levels. The low-levels are notably dry this morning with dew point depressions in excess of 10 degrees noted. Relative humidity values in the low and mid levels are expected to improve near 18z thanks to Gulf access and isentropic lift.
627 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Thursday, before changing to snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a crossing cold front. A ridge, ahead of a deepening Central CONUS trough, should maintain dry weather today. This low should then track N along the front as it crosses our region Thursday. For the higher terrain areas of WV, there is a better potential for warning level snow accumulation.
Winds will gradually diminish from west to east today as the trough shifts eastward. Upper ridging rebuilds over the western CONUS for the end of the week, resulting in mild weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas.
An expansive region of high pressure over the entire Eastern United States down into the Sunshine State will slowly exit into the western Atlantic Ocean by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will dig equatorward into southern Gulf of Mexico, pulling a strong cold front through our area by early Christmas morning with high pressure governing our sensible weather resulting in a windy and chilly Christmas day. However, the best chance for a swath of showers and rain will be Thursday night, before much cooler and drier air seeps in for Christmas day. An extensive area of high pressure centered over the Southeast United States and the Florida Peninsula will slowly retreat eastward, but another large continental area of high pressure will reinforce the departing cell.
517 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 12Z TAF issuance Northwest winds will increase 15-20 kts later this morning behind a strong cold front. /issued 316 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ An upper level trough is over the Rocky Mountains and the Northern and Central Plains. The base of the trough is over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas which has resulted in breezy southwest winds across the area. The upper trough will continue to dig southward today and will result in a cold front moving into the area this afternoon. The upper trough will begin to pass to the east on Thursday with temperatures across the area remaining cool with highs mostly in the 50s.
402 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Thursday, before changing to snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a crossing cold front. A ridge, ahead of a deepening Central CONUS trough, should maintain dry weather today. This low should then track N along the front as it crosses our region Thursday. For the higher terrain areas of WV, there is a better potential for warning level snow accumulation.
It is a chilly and pleasant start to our Wednesday morning with high pressure ridge dominating across the East Coast. The current high pressure will slide to the east and north through today allowing relatively calm winds across the peninsula to increase from the east by the early afternoon and push in slightly higher moisture into the area. High temperatures today will be at least 10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday with most areas climbing into the mid to upper 70s, so wearing layers won't be such a bad idea. On Christmas Eve, a broad upper level low pressure system and associated cold front stretching across the nation will approach the region bringing showers and thunderstorms, as well as the potential for some severe weather.
Dry conditions on Christmas Eve with a stand-up ridge of high pressure building in. Sharp, upper level ridge will be sliding overhead Thursday night with cold conditions holding under anticipated clear skies. No significant impacts from this system outside of breaking down the ridge, which opens the gates for another run period of active weather as we close out 2020.
413 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Main concerns through tonight will be windy conditions today and precipitation types with a strong cold front moving through the area. Latest runs of the CAMS have been consistent that a band of rain will develop later this morning as both the GFS/NAM shows frontogenesis increasing as the upper trough deepens over the central CONUS. As the upper trough moves across the area late tonight into tomorrow morning, added a chance of snow flurries to the eastern CWA. Britt EPS/GEFS means are still showing the upper trough lifting east into the northeast CONUS and southeast Canada by late week and the weekend.
354 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 (Issued 354 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020) Today through Thursday: Low pressure will strengthen as it tracks from the Plains to north central Wisconsin today. A dry slot will work its way into southern WI later this afternoon as the low gets into western WI.
Southerly winds are already beginning to increase across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Can't rule out some flurries occurring across areas mainly east of the Mississippi River as an upper trof moves through the region. Temperatures will be frigid with expected highs ranging from near freezing to the mid/upper 30s. Christmas Day will not be much warmer as arctic high pressure settles over the area. In fact, areas near Paris, Tennessee may not see highs get above freezing. Winds will turn around to the south as the high shifts east. Models are a tad slower with the next cold front.
A cold front approaching the region today will bring rain chances back into the forecast, starting this morning in southeast Texas. Finally, behind the cold front, winds will be quite strong, with sustained winds over 20 mph expected. Dry and cool weather is forecast for Christmas Day, with morning lows at or below freezing in most places along and north of the I-10 corridor.
942 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move through the Carolinas Thursday afternoon/evening followed by high pressure and temperatures well below normal for the end of the week. Weak northeast flow continues this morning, but light winds should shift to east-southeast later this afternoon as the high slips offshore. Can already see east-southeast motion to low cloud farther offshore, but development of weak coastal trough is expected which will slow the wind shift. A strong cold front will be moving across the area Thursday evening with a strongly forced convective line and heavy synoptic winds.
315 AM MST Wed Dec 23 2020 Following a cold morning across NE Montana, high pressure settling into the Northern High Plains will bring dry weather conditions to the region for today with lighter winds. As upper ridging continues to slide east, look for temperature recoveries into Thursday as highs slide above freezing for most of the CWA. A few places in some of the deeper river valleys as well as locations right along the Canadian border may remain at or slightly below freezing for daytime highs. MVFR to IFR ceilings may linger this morning, but look for a return to VFR for all area terminals by 19Z as high pressure settles into the region.
Temperatures will drop 11 to 16 degrees today behind a cold front as brisk north winds develop with the highest speeds down the Colorado River Valley. Cool and cloudy conditions Thursday will be followed by clearing skies with a little warmer temperatures on Christmas Day.
606 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will sweep south across the area this morning with much cooler air overspreading the area and strong, gusty north winds.