Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Strong southerly flow will continue through the short term as the Northern Plains is wedged between a high pressure system across the eastern seaboard and a low pressure system over southern Alberta. RH's will be slower to rebound across the far west and are expected to dip into the low 20's later this afternoon. Later this afternoon and into the evening a weak cold front will enter the northwest, attendant to the aforementioned low, likely sparking some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms anywhere from Dickinson northward into Canada. The highest coverage of showers and storms should be closer towards the International Border where there is slightly greater instability. A deep trough builds into the western CONUS on Wednesday which will result in flow aloft across the Northern Plains becoming southwesterly.
1124 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Large and somewhat unorganized upper low circulation sprawled over much of NM and CO will move little during the next 12 hrs. Energy moving around the base of the low will result in increasing destabilitzation along the ern NM/TX border by 18Z leading to potential for strong to severe tstms with large hail and wind gusts to 50kts in that area. Tuesday is expected to be another active day of storms as the core of the upper low over AZ moves east thru northern NM. An upper level low will cross the CO/NM border Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Some modest daytime instability amid weak shear will lead to development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area during the afternoon into evening, with the best chances firing up along the warm front from southeast Kansas into central Missouri. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today, generally topping out in the low to mid 70s.
The upper level low pressure cyclone continues to shift eastward through New Mexico throughout Tuesday.
00Z Upper air analysis/GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper level trough over the Western United States with an upper level low in the Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis is located over the Eastern United States. The Lower Mississippi Valley will remain on the western periphery of the upper level ridge axis on Wednesday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during peak afternoon heating as temperatures rise into the middle 80s. Medium/long range models indicate the upper level ridge axis over the Eastern United States will retrograde west back into the Lower Mississippi Valley late this week into the upcoming weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the middle 80s to approaching the lower 90s, with the warmest temperatures occurring this weekend.
Southerly component to the flow at the surface extend upwards as an upper low continues to spin over the southern Rockies. Latest Hrrr indicates that the low precip coverage will continue through the day and into early evening. Moving on, the short term trend will be that an upper high over the Carolinas will strengthen rather markedly by Wednesday.
427 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 A warm front will lift northward across central IL today, and bring another cloudy and damp day, with periods of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows tonight in the lower 60s, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
613 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies to the region this week.
602 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming north downstream of a mid/upper low over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures look to be cooler for southern areas given the earlier arrival of low clouds. Wednesday will be an even trickier forecast in terms of the high temperature forecast, being highly dependent on the stratus deck progged to plague some of the area. As the remnants of the low/trough mentioned in the short term discussion stream northward through the remainder of the week, occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely.
-Chance for heavier rain returns on Wednesday as moisture surges back into the region and ridge building to the east leads to the potential for training storms. Subtle warm front lifts north towards central Missouri, which could serve as another focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. The main upper trough has slowed with the 00Z model runs, and is now expected to remain across New Mexico into Colorado overnight.
611 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 A warm front will lift northward across central IL today, and bring another cloudy and damp day, with periods of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows tonight in the lower 60s, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
However, we are concerned about the presence of a low level trof sitting over the Snowy Range and extending north towards Douglas. Wednesday-Wednesday night: Wednesday afternoon and evening could be a little more active than Tuesday as our pesky upper level trof in gets absorbed into the southwest flow regime ahead of the Pacific northwest trof.
404 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Upper low over Colorado and New Mexico continues to be the key player across the region this morning. One such area is currently located over western Missouri, and has developed a weak area of low pressure at the surface.
Upper low over Colorado and New Mexico continues to be the key player across the region this morning. One such area is currently located over western Missouri, and has developed a weak area of low pressure at the surface.
954 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will continue across the area for the next several days with easterly flow bringing gusty conditions in the late afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will keep generally easterly flow through much of the period.
430 AM PDT Tue May 18 2021 Dry weather with warmer temperatures today. Next weather system approaches Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures.
A weak cold front will move through the area after sunset. Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Highs across the Basin will be mostly in the low 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande.
338 AM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Upper low continues to spin over southern CO-northern NM as ridge has pushed eastward over the Great Lakes. Next trof is starting to deepen along the west coast. On the surface, lee trof is deepening over central MT-WY with southeast winds increasing across the forecast area. Most fill in the low Wednesday and the trof is lifted into the central Plains, when it could bring better chances of showers to the western SD plains. Next upper trof deepens over the western US, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week.
537 AM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Upper low continues to spin over southern CO-northern NM as ridge has pushed eastward over the Great Lakes. Next trof is starting to deepen along the west coast. On the surface, lee trof is deepening over central MT-WY with southeast winds increasing across the forecast area. Most fill in the low Wednesday and the trof is lifted into the central Plains, when it could bring better chances of showers to the western SD plains. Next upper trof deepens over the western US, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week.
/Issued 434 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021/ An area of low pressure remained over New Mexico and Southern Colorado early this morning with continued southerly low/mid level flow feeding moisture into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
An upper level low continues to spin across the SW CONUS, deepening slightly today. A disturbance out ahead of the low will be the focus for precipitation chances today. For Wednesday, the upper level low will slowly progress northeast ward into the High Plains, becoming more of an open wave than a closed low as it progresses, with more precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. As the upper level low progresses eastward, the flow turns more southwestward as an upper level ridge begins to build over the forecast area.
411 AM PDT Tue May 18 2021 Weak high pressure will bring warming for today into Wednesday.
622 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area through the week with warm temperatures and minimal rain chances. High pressure surface and aloft will continue over the area through tonight with 60M height rises forecast from 12Z Tue to 12Z Wed as a strong upper level ridge builds over the eastern US. Radiational cooling will produce lows in the low to mid 50s inland.
434 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 An area of low pressure remained over New Mexico and Southern Colorado early this morning with continued southerly low/mid level flow feeding moisture into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
A broad upper level ridge currently occupies much of the eastern and central US, and the result is mostly clear skies this morning with a few areas of patchy fog. South of highway 2, cloud cover will increase today with chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two as the first of several short waves rides up along the western edge of the ridge, tapping into some rich Gulf of Mexico moisture.
A few additional showers will be possible, but the main upper-level dynamics will have pushed northeastward as they rotate around an upper trough currently located over the Panhandle. Tonight, the upper trough will remain in place, but dynamics will be much weaker, allowing for much lower chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low temperatures will still be mild, only in the low to mid 60s.
Strong southerly flow will continue through the short term as the Northern Plains is wedged between a high pressure system across the eastern seaboard and a low pressure system over southern Alberta. RH's will be slower to rebound across the far west and are expected to dip into the low 20's later this afternoon. Later this afternoon and into the evening a weak cold front will enter the northwest, attendant to the aforementioned low, likely sparking some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms anywhere from Dickinson northward into Canada. The highest coverage of showers and storms should be closer towards the International Border where there is slightly greater instability. A deep trough builds into the western CONUS on Wednesday which will result in flow aloft across the Northern Plains becoming southwesterly.
Some light returns have been observed early this morning moving northward across AL, but they are likely not reaching the ground based on a lot of dry air in the low to mid levels observed on last nights soundings from Birmingham and Nashville. Showers will slowly decrease in coverage by this afternoon and end after sunset as high pressure builds in from the east of the forecast area. Overcast skies will clear out by Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens to our east and upper level ridging amplifies across the southeast CONUS.
Very similar conditions will setup again on Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night as the main 500mb trough over the Rockies slowly shifts eastward over the Southern Plains.
736 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 GOES imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge axis over Upper Michigan as a shrtwv, that will move over the UP tonight remains, to the south near IA/MO. With 850mb temps a few degrees lower today than yesterday, temps are expected to be just a degree or two cooler than they were yesterday as well. Tonight, aforementioned shrtwv is expected to lift north along the western ridge axis, bringing some light rain and patchy fog. Models suggest that an amplified pattern will prevail into the weekend with a mid/upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the west. Wednesday, although confidence is limited, the ECMWF/NAM/CMC suggest that the higher pcpn chances during the morning will diminish during the afternoon as the supporting shrtwv moves out.
Increasing southwest flow over the Rockies will generate a mid level impulse that will help push an associated cold front through our area. Wednesday's highs will be about 15 degrees cooler behind the front. The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will push further into the Rockies. BT Model clusters continued to support cooler and wetter conditions through the weekend.
612 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A non-progressive pattern will feature high pressure gradually building in from the north over the next several days. Weak strands of vorticity aloft atop the upper ridge will face unwelcoming circumstances, as the ridge amplifies over the region, bringing about descent of dry capping layer or air later today. Maximum temperatures today not all that different from yesterday, but Wednesday should be several degrees warmer as the upper ridge works the column and thicknesses are boosted.
959 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area through the week with warm temperatures and minimal rain chances. No changes to current forecast temperatures with mid 70s beaches to lower 80s inland, except cooler 60s on the northern Outer Banks. Radiational cooling will produce lows in the low to mid 50s inland.
An upper level trough will squeeze over South Texas between two areas of high pressure late Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing moisture creep up on Tuesday night. A mid-level closed low will open up and move to the northeast, sending energy south into the area.
Overcast skies will clear out by Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens to our east and upper level ridging amplifies across the southeast CONUS.
406 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming north downstream of a mid/upper low over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures look to be cooler for southern areas given the earlier arrival of low clouds. Wednesday will be an even trickier forecast in terms of the high temperature forecast, being highly dependent on the stratus deck progged to plague some of the area. As the remnants of the low/trough mentioned in the short term discussion stream northward through the remainder of the week, occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely.
948 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A non-progressive pattern will feature high pressure gradually building in from the north over the next several days. Weak strands of vorticity aloft atop the upper ridge will face unwelcoming circumstances, as the ridge amplifies over the region, bringing about descent of a dry capping layer of air later today. Maximum temperatures today not all that different from yesterday, but Wednesday should be several degrees warmer as the upper ridge works the column and thicknesses are boosted.
359 AM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Look for another warm day across NE Montana ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon into tonight. Looking ahead, cooler and wetter weather conditions are set to unfold late this week. An upper level low will set up over the western U.
Another mostly dry day under high pressure can be expected, with temperatures warming a few degrees as compared to yesterday. Warm, moist advection will continue to progress across the Ohio River Valley under high pressure. The elongated ridge across the CONUS will linger into early week. High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind throughout the TAF period. High pressure will maintain VFR through much of the week.
It will be a breezier/gustier day than yesterday as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard and tightens the easterly pressure gradient. Strong high pressure will remain anchored well to the north of Florida, with a slightly more veered easterly flow in place today. Poor boating conditions today as easterly pressure gradient tightens around high pressure to the north.
1138 AM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Upper low continues to spin over southern CO-northern NM as ridge has pushed eastward over the Great Lakes. Next trof is starting to deepen along the west coast. On the surface, lee trof is deepening over central MT-WY with southeast winds increasing across the forecast area. Most fill in the low Wednesday and the trof is lifted into the central Plains, when it could bring better chances of showers to the western SD plains. Next upper trof deepens over the western US, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week.
358 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Deep column anticyclone circulation with corresponding pristine anticyclonic vorticity anomaly is in place over Lake Huron this afternoon. The center of mid-upper high pressure will rotate southeastward out of the Lake Huron basin tonight. This in combination with an upper level low lifting northward through Saskatchewan will result in strengthening geostrophic southerly flow over all of the western/northern Great Lakes tonight. With the blocking ridge out of the way, convective remnant moisture will surge northward. Given the dry and statically stable column was fairly aggressive in removing the low PoPs throughout much of the night. The reason is the high amplitude upper level ridge with remaining semblances of lake aggregate surface ridging.
150 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area through the week with warm temperatures and minimal rain chances. Current forecast temperatures on track with mid 70s beaches to lower 80s inland, except cooler 60s on the northern Outer Banks. Radiational cooling will produce lows in the low to mid 50s inland.
An upper low, located over Northern New Mexico at 12z Tuesday, will slowly slide east southeast into the Panhandle of Texas and weaken over the next 36 hours. As this upper level low moves slowly east, several upper level disturbances will rotate around this upper low and cross southwest Kansas.
For Wednesday, the Midsouth will remain positioned between a 589dm 500mb height ridge centered over the Appalachians, and a weakening trof over the southern high plains. Further east, from Memphis to the TN River, the upper ridge will exert its influence, limiting, if not precluding altogether rainfall chances.
352 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Wx map shows tight pressure gradient continuing between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure over NM/W TX/OK this afternoon.
155 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 The upper level trough that has been dominate in the region is expected to get absorbed into the main flow ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough digging towards the southeast early tomorrow morning. Current model guidance has an omega blocking pattern setting up over the central CONUS with an upper level closed low developing over the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will remain east of the area and this will act to push the heaviest precip back to the west through the period. Overnight lows will fall only a few degrees, dropping into the lower to middle 60s across the CWA. Precip will begin to wane some at beginning of the period as the high pressure will become more dominant and push most of the precip to the west.
Then, high pressure will strengthen over the Appalachians tonight into Wednesday. The high center will build westward from the western Atlantic into the eastern U. Isolated storms possible across the high terrain this afternoon, then dry tonight into Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF also indicated scattered convection in the west across the higher terrain. High pressure builds in tonight across the area. High pressure will strengthen over the Appalachians Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday will moderate to readings from the mid 60s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the piedmont. High pressure sets up shop over the Mid-Atlantic for mid week, starting a period of some serious warm up to bring summer like temperatures in.
303 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure builds surface and aloft through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. Showers associated with a weakening warm front have dissipated. A weak upper level disturbance will be shunted west of the area Wednesday by a building upper level ridge, as the warm front dissipates.
In the low levels southeast flow will dominant through the period with modest warm air advection occurring over our western zones. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the southeastern and eastern CONUS tonight and Wednesday, bringing a stronger subsidence influence over eastern portions of our forecast area. Highs on Wednesday will then trend warmer as ridging begins to dominant. Currently, mid to upper 80s over eastern portions of the CWA (in closer proximity to the building ridge), and in the lower to mid 80s across southeast MS and adjacent south central AL.
High pressure and dry air thru the column remain firmly in control of our wx across the entire Great Lakes region this afternoon. still expecting a gradual increase of mid and high clouds from SW to NE as a warm front and associated moisture begin to lift northward into the Western Great Lakes region.
Today will be cooler and breezy with a west- southwest flow aloft.
After it passes east high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure will temporarily build across the region today.
143 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 GOES imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge axis over Upper Michigan as a shrtwv, that will move over the UP tonight remains, to the south near IA/MO. With 850mb temps a few degrees lower today than yesterday, temps are expected to be just a degree or two cooler than they were yesterday as well. Tonight, aforementioned shrtwv is expected to lift north along the western ridge axis, bringing some light rain and patchy fog. Models suggest that an amplified pattern will prevail into the weekend with a mid/upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the west. Wednesday, although confidence is limited, the ECMWF/NAM/CMC suggest that the higher pcpn chances during the morning will diminish during the afternoon as the supporting shrtwv moves out.
1215 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week as high pressure remains in firm control. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to provide mostly dry weather.
205 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Water vapor shows nearly cut-off low over the southern Rockies with upper trof carving through the Pac NW. Weak flow aloft across the Northern Plains with upper ridge just off to our northeast. At the surface, robust return flow continues with lee trof advancing off the front range, with a notable dry line over northeast WY early this afternoon. Upper low over the southern Rockies weakens and ejects northeast as upper trof digs in the west on Wednesday. A brief period of gusty northwest winds possible in the morning as weak surface trof moves through.
Still dry in the lower part of the atmosphere with a CAPE of 40 J/KG and LI of +4.
252 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep ridge extending northward from a sub-equatorial anticyclone over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The ridge axis was analyzed from the western Caribbean, over the Florida Peninsula, northward to the Great Lakes.
144 PM PDT Tue May 18 2021 Weak high pressure will bring warming through Wednesday with more afternoon sunshine west of the mountains than recent.
High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperature tonight.
Instability and wind shear across the region are both notably lower today than yesterday, however a risk of severe hail and damaging wind still exists courtesy of continued steep mid level lapse rates due to our proximity to the upper low. Area-wide, low clouds are expected to return Wednesday morning, with chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering throughout the morning as the upper low meanders over northeastern NM.
Much cooler conditions and widespread showers continue across the region the next few days as upper level low pressure moves south across the Pacific Northwest.
Winds are expected to diminish late this afternoon ahead of and advancing cold front. The mid and upper level forcing from this system might be enough to produce a few showers behind a cold front that pushes through western and central ND late tonight through Wednesday morning. On Wednesday the aforementioned cold front stalls over south central into northeast-east central ND. Temperatures Wednesday will range form the lower 70s northwest to mid 80s east.