Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Significant snowfall will accumulate over the higher elevations along the Continental Divide, and above most mountain passes through Wednesday evening. A ridge-top level temperature inversion will produce a favorable profile for mountain wave downslope winds strengthening, and peaking this afternoon. The strongest period of high winds are expected to occur just ahead of, and a few hours behind a cold frontal passage during the daytime hours on Wednesday.
For most areas, this is comparable to the 75th percentile, slightly cooler for those areas where even these models hold on to better than 3", just west of I-29 corridor where latest COOP observations support these higher values. For tonight, similar to this morning, winds will likely decouple to near calm in the lower lying areas, while higher elevations maintain light winds. With slightly warmer air aloft, would expect to see low temperatures near to just above this morning's readings, mainly in the lower 20s in the valleys to upper 20s-lower 30s in elevated regions.
922 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 A weak low pressure system will pass to the south of our area on today. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build into the region from the southwest, influencing our weather through the week.
440 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Weak low pressure near the Gulf Coast will move northeast and spread rain into the area through the overnight. The low pressure system will move northeast of the area Tuesday.
/Issued 328 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ Expanding low level thermal ridge will be expanding across the southern plains with downslope flow over the next couple of days, leading to a notable warming trend today and Wednesday.
425 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 The cold front is just to the west of the area this morning, with some light rain/sprinkles in place across the southern half of the area. Another upper trough then moves across the northern Gulf Wednesday, and moving over the area Wednesday night, with showers lifting over the area through the period.
/Issued 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ High clouds associated with an upper low approaching from the southwest will increase across the region overnight through Tuesday. Therefore, lows are still expected to fall below freezing, ranging from the middle 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy freezing fog continues to develop late this evening, mainly south of I-20 and east of I-35. Therefore, we will keep the current Freezing Fog Advisory going through 9 AM Tuesday.
Mostly dry with considerably warmer temperatures starting Tuesday through the remainder of the week.
312 AM MST Tue Jan 12 2021 Latest analysis shows a flat upper ridge over the region. At the surface, the forecast area is located between high pressure to the southwest and a weak trough over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. A low pressure system tracking eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces will swing an upper trough and an associated surface cold front across the forecast area from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Initially the strength of low level cold advection and surface pressure rises behind the front will be on the low end for high wind criteria, however with winds at the top of the mixed layer rising to 55-60kts, steep low level lapse rates are expected to aid in momentum transfer down to the surface increasing the chances for strong and gusty winds overnight.
Upper ridging inland, an offshore low, and zonal flow directed at the Pacific NW have conditioned the next few days to produce an AR event over a prolonged period which could produce moderate to heavy rainfall over the next 24 hours. A developing offshore low pressure system is tracking North of the area sending a cold front SW, due to arrive tonight resulting in another storm system approaching the area on Wednesday.
933 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 High pressure across the lower Mississippi River Valley will build toward the Middle Atlantic through the middle of the week.
531 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 An upper ridge currently extends from the Central Rockies into the adjacent Plains. Temperatures were nudged near the warmer MOS guidance for high in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, a Pacific cold front and upper trough will move into British Columbia, Washington and Oregon. on Wednesday, the upper trough will advance across Manitoba, Canada, Montana and western WY. This will drive a cold front eastward across western ND, northwest SD and northern WY. Warm downsloping winds will bring an even warmer day across western NE. Went toward the warmer end of guidance for 60-65 most locations. The strong cold front and upper trough axis will push east through western NE Wednesday night.
West-southwest BL flow supporting continues moderating of temperatures and with less low level cloud cover we should at least have highs above freezing for much our area through Wednesday (maybe even warmer Wed with better WAA ahead of approaching trough). A few rain showers may develop along main axis of WAA ahead of approaching trough Wed afternoon in the Devils Lake basin.
After a very cold start this morning (with some patchy fog), temper- atures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon even with the abundant sun/clear skies. Another cold night is on tap for tonight, but freezing/below freezing temperatures overnight will likely be limited to our northern counties.
336 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 A deep, positively-tilted trough is moving slowly across the Southern Rockies this morning while yesterday's snow-maker accelerates toward the Mid-Atlantic States. The synoptic pattern throughout the week will be highlighted by a semi-permanent trough over the east and a ridge building off the CA coast, typical of a +PNA pattern. Cloud cover continues to slowly clear from west to east this morning and temperatures have dropped into the low/mid 20s. Expect warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 40s. South winds will continue on Wednesday as the trough currently moving across the Southern Rockies traverses the region.
803 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Weak low pressure will move way from the region this morning.
528 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 (Today and tonight) Continued dry weather, with warmer afternoon highs today. An upper level low currently south of El Paso early this morning, will move northeast into central Texas by this evening. The upper level low and cloud cover will keep temperatures from warming up too much, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
West of here, patchy freezing fog has developed in a few spots, reducing visibilities to IFR/MVFR territory. High pressure will build into the region as well. but the southeast may creep into the lower 50s as long as those clouds get out of the way. the clearing skies under the ridge will set up some better cooling and lows will drop into the 20s.
The first wave of warm front precipitation has reached the Idaho Panhandle and is spreading across NW Montana early this morning. Snow or a mix or rain, snow or freezing drizzle remain possible across much of NW Montana this morning and thus a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect. So the big focus will turn towards two periods of heavy rain, one developing late this afternoon and the other Wednesday morning ahead of a quick moving cold front. 00 inches are possible in the higher terrain, but especially along the Idaho/Montana border.
328 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 An upper ridge currently extends from the Central Rockies into the adjacent Plains. Temperatures were nudged near the warmer MOS guidance for high in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, a Pacific cold front and upper trough will move into British Columbia, Washington and Oregon. on Wednesday, the upper trough will advance across Manitoba, Canada, Montana and western WY. This will drive a cold front eastward across western ND, northwest SD and northern WY. Warm downsloping winds will bring an even warmer day across western NE. Went toward the warmer end of guidance for 60-65 most locations. The strong cold front and upper trough axis will push east through western NE Wednesday night.
They've done a great job at keeping temperatures locked below freezing so far today, but with sunshine imminent and light southerly winds expected we should still be able to warm into the low 40s, which is just a few degrees cooler than previously forecast. Adjusted hourly temperatures to line up with observations and the slightly cooler expected highs for today.
128 PM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather through Tuesday, albeit with plenty of clouds through much of the day.
Weak sfc ridging then shifts across srn WI on Wed. The clearing happened suddenly last evening due to just enough mixing in the low levels to allow that dry air above the inversion to get down to the ground level. The warm air advection will persist through Wednesday, so this should strengthen an inversion layer which would put us right back in the low stratus.
826 AM PST Tue Jan 12 2021 A Santa Ana weather pattern will maintain fair, dry, and warmer weather across Southern California this week with periods of weak to moderate offshore flow. Building high pressure aloft will amplify the warming for the latter half of the week, when temperatures will be well above average. High pressure will remain centered off the California coast. Low pressure systems moving eastward across the Pacific will move inland through the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, then move southeastward through the Great Basin and mountain states and then into the plains. As those low pressure systems move by to the east, there could be a period of more widespread offshore winds behind them.
1029 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Offshore weak low pressure moving away from the region.
1137 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 (Today and tonight) Continued dry weather, with warmer afternoon highs today. An upper level low currently south of El Paso early this morning, will move northeast into central Texas by this evening. The upper level low and cloud cover will keep temperatures from warming up too much, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Snow moved into eastern Oregon and far western Idaho this morning, with some quick light snow accumulations observed on area webcams across the lower valleys. Warmer air will accompany the moist flow aloft, and precipitation will transition to rain in most lower valley locations by late this morning and early this afternoon. As warmer air aloft arrives, pockets of freezing rain are possible in the lower valleys where colder air near the surface remains trapped. A cold front will arrive on Wednesday, bringing lowering snow levels and an end to precipitation. Some opportunity exists for freezing rain for KBNO through 18z today, and within the vicinity of KBKE through around 06z this evening.
(This evening through Wednesday) Dry weather will persist across the area through Wednesday, along with warmer temperatures. Some high clouds linger across the area this afternoon, associated with an upper low moving across southern sections. The upper low will move off to the east this evening, with cloud cover decreasing. Southwest winds and warmer temperatures will occur tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Highs today should reach the lower to mid 40s with upper 40s at Chattanooga as the sun will have some effect in the warming.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving across the Texas. As dry air is pushed in and the upper low moves farther east, the clouds will clear from west to east. At or below freezing temperatures are expected again overnight.
Tonight will be mostly dry conditions from a weak ridging pattern over our area.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, peaking in the lower 50s in areas where the snowpack still exists with upper 50s expected across the extreme southern Panhandle and Rolling Plains. An upper ridge along the west coast and upper trough vicinity of the Great Lakes will both amplify over the coming week. Still, Wednesday night should be yet a few degrees cooler than most guidance in this area.
Canadian high pressure at the surface stretches from South Texas into the Appalachians this afternoon. Aloft clouds are beginning to stream in ahead of an upper low that is moving east across the Big Bend area. Through the rest of the afternoon and tonight cloud cover will move in and thicken as the upper low will move closer. Skies will clear Wednesday morning behind the upper low, and high pressure will become centered in the northern gulf.
H5 trough has finally moved east of the Appalachians this afternoon and low level moisture is slowly clearing from west to east with some lingering low cloudiness east of I-75 and I-81. Temperatures finally rebounding into the lower to mid 40s at most locations. With temperatures dropping below freezing areas of Freezing fog may form too. High pressure will build over the area tonight and Wednesday. However a another closed off weak upper low over west Texas today will move east across TX and LA tonight and the states just south of TN Wednesday.
147 PM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Weak low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast later today.
1012 AM MST Tue Jan 12 2021 Latest analysis shows a flat upper ridge over the region. At the surface, the forecast area is located between high pressure to the southwest and a weak trough over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska. A low pressure system tracking eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces will swing an upper trough and an associated surface cold front across the forecast area from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Initially the strength of low level cold advection and surface pressure rises behind the front will be on the low end for high wind criteria, however with winds at the top of the mixed layer rising to 55-60kts, steep low level lapse rates are expected to aid in momentum transfer down to the surface increasing the chances for strong and gusty winds overnight.
Higher moisture in the low and mid levels today compared to yesterday will allow droplets to reach the ground, with very low rain accumulations expected for areas south of Melbourne. Behind the front, dense stratus is expected to linger across most of the area, with cooler temps in the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak cold front will sag SE cross the local Atlc waters during the day.
Cold front will continue to push to the east of the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds from the west through Tonight into Wednesday. A combination of an upper trough moving over area from the west Wednesday afternoon, and weak surface wave moving northeast from the gulf, will provide for cloud cover across the region.
105 PM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Offshore weak low pressure moving away from the region.
1126 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 An upper ridge currently extends from the Central Rockies into the adjacent Plains. Temperatures were nudged near the warmer MOS guidance for high in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, a Pacific cold front and upper trough will move into British Columbia, Washington and Oregon. on Wednesday, the upper trough will advance across Manitoba, Canada, Montana and western WY. This will drive a cold front eastward across western ND, northwest SD and northern WY. Warm downsloping winds will bring an even warmer day across western NE. Went toward the warmer end of guidance for 60-65 most locations. The strong cold front and upper trough axis will push east through western NE Wednesday night.
230 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 228 PM CST What a difference the sun and southwest winds make, even with the snowpack in place we he have most places at or above the freezing mark and knocking on 40 degrees in Chicago. Model guidance can struggle with low clouds and moisture over snowpack, and thus we see vastly different scenarios for the low cloud and fog potential tonight. Dry conditions will continue Wednesday with an upper ridge overhead.
Surface observations show these areas have risen or will rise to above- freezing this afternoon, and how much the snowpack erodes by peak heating will dictate what kind of lows to expect up there tonight. Elsewhere, afternoon temps should top out warmer than they've been for the past 5 days or so, but still well-below normal. That said, WV imagery shows an upper trough over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico moving into Central Texas, behind which meridional flow aloft will transition to NW over the next 24 hours.
1150 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Overcast skies will linger into today as rain and low pressure accelerates off to the northeast.
Highs will warm but CAA & low- level thermal troughing will keep below normal warmth with highs in the low-mid 40s across most areas while in the NW & SE closer to 50 degrees. In these areas depicted in GOES-East vis imagery over NE Louisiana, W Mississippi in the Delta & along the Highway 25 corridor NE of the Jackson Metro & towards the Golden Triangle, highs could be on the colder side. High pressure will build into the region as well. but the southeast may creep into the lower 50s as long as those clouds get out of the way. the clearing skies under the ridge will set up some better cooling and lows will drop into the 20s.
May see some sheltered areas drop off pretty quickly into the low 20s, especially over our eastern CWA, however other areas are likely to bottom out in the 25 to 30 degree range thanks to the light winds. If fog becomes more widespread and limiting, then the potential for freezing fog and a few slick spots come into play for Wednesday morning.
1121 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 Overcast skies will linger into today as rain and low pressure accelerates off to the northeast.
1138 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 An upper low is increasing some mid level clouds. /ISSUED 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ An upper low has generated some rain/sleet showers with some isolated thunder along the Coastal Plains. With temperatures now above freezing at the surface, significant impacts are not expected. High pressure has moved over South Texas and winds across our CWA are generally light. Patchy fog has developed over the eastern part of the CWA and temperatures are at or below freezing. An upper level low will move across Texas today, but high pressure will still dominate in the low levels.
Dry southwesterly flow aloft is then expected behind the passage of this low. Some clearing is expected across the northern ranchlands this evening which will allow for overnight low temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s. Farther south, cloud cover will persist a bit longer which will favor lows in the upper 30s across much of the lower RGV to lower 40s near the coast. As skies clear on Wednesday, highs rebounding into the low to mid 60s are expected, followed by efficient radiational cooling overnight.
1019 AM EST Tue Jan 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather through Tuesday, albeit with plenty of clouds through much of the day.
204 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Variable high and mid level cloudiness across the region today as GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis was showing a weak mid- level trough pushing southeast across MN into WI. Will have to watch for fog development tonight, possibly locally dense, mainly east of the Mississippi River given lighter winds under a weak ridge of high pressure and very moist lower boundary from partial snowmelt today. After some areas of morning fog, may have to contend with some low cloud/stratus mainly east of the Mississippi River in warm air advection ahead of low pressure moving in across the Northern Plains. Typical highs for this date are in the lower/mid 20s.
Mostly mid and upper 40s over the Florida panhandle this afternoon, although a few locations along the coast have risen into the lower 50s. Even with the higher levels clouds, we should see more sunshine than we have over the past few days, and low level winds should become more west or even southwesterly at times by the end of the day on Wednesday, and these factors should allow for afternoon temperatures to warm somewhat. Highs on Wednesday should range from the lower 50s over most of the interior to the mid 50s along some sections of the coast and barrier islands. Forecast model soundings from across the region indicate that the low level inversion that is trapping the moisture and producing the cloud deck will begin to dissipate this evening, and the vertical column begins to dry over a deeper layer.
Now that the freezing fog around KAEX has dissipated, VFR conditions are expected areawide through the period although some newer fog guidance is beginning to advertise some potential late tonight. plenty of sunshine and a bit warmer.
Overnight lows will drop down into the low to mid 20s across most areas overnight. A rather impressive upper level low will move out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeastern u. The upper level low exits to the east Wednesday night with higher heights aloft and high pressure at the surface.
TFJ Flat ridge over the northern Rockies with chinook arch clouds spreading across the state. A strong jet comes with the wave and will likely mix down with the benefit of a cold front and a few showers.
1057 AM MST Tue Jan 12 2021 Currently, eastern Utah and western Colorado are situated under a ridge of high pressure, with relatively clear skies and quiet conditions. The forecast for the high temperatures today is a bit tricky. Tonight will be very similar to last night, though a few degrees warmer due to increasing high cloud cover. Wednesday will see the ridge still exerting its influence, and high temperatures should be right around average.
Still, current indications are showing at least a 20 degree diurnal swing with lows bottoming out in the low 30s on Wednesday morning.
At the surface, broad W/SW flow extends across the Midwest/Great Lakes, between low pressure is central Canada and high pressure in the Gulf. Earlier widespread drizzle/freezing drizzle has diminished greatly over the last few hours, with just some spotty drizzle lingering out there at this juncture.
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 The primary forecast concern will center around the high winds behind the Wednesday night cold front.
This morning was quite cold with surface analysis showing freezing temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast. Even Laredo managed to drop to freezing last night, as did parts of the Houston Metropolitan Area. Some patchy fog or freezing fog may develop in low-lying, sheltered locations, but will opt to keep explicit fog mention out of the grids at this time.
209 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 SUNSHINE AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON! The 2nd consecutive day of sun has is taking place, thanks to a large high pressure area, and a rather mild air mass. The ridge of high pressure will remain overhead tonight, and with that, skies should be covered by only high clouds, otherwise, clear, allowing for decent radiational cooling this evening, and by 9 PM, likely fog development.
The short term forecast will be mostly quiet due to the influence of a transient upper level ridge. The positive tilt ridge axis currently extends from southern CA up into the central plains.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 40s this afternoon with a light west wind. /issued 336 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ A deep, positively-tilted trough is moving slowly across the Southern Rockies this morning while yesterday's snow-maker accelerates toward the Mid-Atlantic States. The synoptic pattern throughout the week will be highlighted by a semi-permanent trough over the east and a ridge building off the CA coast, typical of a +PNA pattern. Cloud cover continues to slowly clear from west to east this morning and temperatures have dropped into the low/mid 20s. Expect warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 40s. South winds will continue on Wednesday as the trough currently moving across the Southern Rockies traverses the region.