Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After a cooler day on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, we will see temperatures mainly 80 to 85 for the rest of the week. Will confine the higher POPs to areas south of I-96.
The attendant cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon, which will cool temperatures slightly across the northwest; however, for most locations, hot temperatures (~10F above average) will prevail. Temperatures might even be a littler hotter than on Tuesday with a low-level thermal ridge ahead of the front. The cold front will return back north as a warm front Wednesday night.
615 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Generally quiet weather continues with weak high pressure at the surface. The cold front looks to wash out as it reaches CWA, but with some moisture pooled along it and the help of the upper level forcing, have isolated to scattered showers and storms in the middle Ohio River Valley today. This feature currently has showers and storms with it across IL/IN, however concerned the washed out cold front will no longer have the umph to keep things going after the sun set. A cold front will stall or dissipate just northwest of the area.
A low pressure system over the pacific northwest will remain nearly stationary tonight before drifting away toward the ne tomorrow. Otherwise the unsettled weather pattern will continue throughout the period as a low pressure system brings showers to the region.
429 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Another comfortable night/early morning with light wind as Central PA remains in the sweet spot of weather - between Hurricane Jose (spinning about 250 NM east of KORF) and a stalled out frontal boundary extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Midwest States. Morning stratus and areas of generally light fog will be burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. Max temps Wednesday will once again range from the mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the L80s in the SE.
Weak ridging aloft along with slightly less moisture will lead to less convective activity today. However, the low level moisture will remain sufficient for iso shra/tsra's associated with the sea breeze.
Surface analysis this early morning displays a stalling cold front over eastern Lake Erie, and western Lake Ontario. Temperatures at 850 hPa will be a degree cooler today and this will hold back highs a degree or two cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s today. Tonight strong ridging will grip the region, with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures dropping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. with 590dm heights over the Lower Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values. The warmer valleys will likely experience highs in the upper 80s. mins will continue to range from the mid and upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.
This unseasonable pattern continues with the influence of high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico and the departing Hurricane Jose being the major synoptic players over much of the southeastern United States. As the high and Jose shift, winds will turn more easterly to northeasterly which will allow the sea breezes to make some progress inland. Conditions will gradually improve as Jose moves farther from the area and high pressure builds back into the region with light east/northeast flow.
325 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure ridge continues to weaken through short term period.
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days, within a pattern which features a large longwave trough in the west and a building ridge in the east. Highs will be about 5-10 degrees above average, but overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be noticeably mild, in the low to mid 70s. Surface cold front moves into Kansas/northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon, with storms forming Wed night across western Missouri into southeast Kansas. After Wed night, the next chance of precipitation doesn't arrive until late in the weekend when western trough finally begins to make some eastward progress.
1116 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A cold wet pacific low pressure trough will bring snowfall to the western and northern mountains of wyoming this evening. Strong gusty west winds are also expected on the passes and higher ridges. The lower elevations will see rain with local heavy rainfall possible.
329 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 At 3 AM, weak 850 mb moisture convergence associated with the low level jet is resulting in scattered showers along north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Wisconsin. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase dramatically ahead of an approaching longwave trough. As the main short wave energy ahead of this trough ejects into northern Minnesota, this line will slow and weaken as it moves east across eastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. On Wednesday, a cold front will push east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
One other area of concern will be the lower elevations of Chaffee county where min RH values this afternoon are forecast to be about 12-15 percent, and the winds will be fairly strong this afternoon and conditions in this area are expected to reach Red Flag criteria for several hours. However, the fire weather zone that encompasses the lower elevations of Chaffee county includes all of Chaffee and Lake counties, and conditions over all but the central valley of Chaffee county, are not expected to reach Red Flag criteria. Highs in the high valleys will be around average, with readings in the 70s. Winds at the lower elevations will decrease this evening and then a weak front will move through the southeast plains later tonight. The high mountain areas will continue to see some windy conditions overnight.
Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast. For Wednesday, a weak short wave will work slowly into the area undercutting the mean ridge. The greatest instability and weak forcing will be along the fringe of the ridge mainly along the western and southwestern forecast area. As the ridge continues to strengthen during the latter part of the week, with H8 temperatures in the 16-17C range for late week mid 80 high temperatures will work into the area.
433 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest with zonal flow over the CWA.
With the 850mb thermal ridge expanding a little farther east across our area, temperatures are expected to be a little hotter than yesterday, with highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 90s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
A surface cold front has passed through Idaho yesterday, making for a colder temperature forecast, only climbing into the low to mid 50s across the Snake Plain, or low 40s in the mountains for today.
Otherwise, conditions will be mostly VFR through the period, with high pressure in control. Modest low level moisture will continue to be trapped underneath a broad mid level ridge extending across Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Time heights continue to indicate a subtle elevated warm layer or subsidence layer between 700-500mb which will be enough to keep the sea breeze and streamer showers at bay with the going forecast keeping most of the low probabilities of convection along east of I69C/281. The mid level ridge will continue to provide warmer then normal temperatures and couple with elevated dew points, heat indices are likely to be well above normal.
Highs from near 85 north to the lower 90s south. Temperatures at sunrise will range from the mid 50s along the Colorado border, to the lower 60s at Dodge City, to near 70 at Kiowa. Weak dry cold front passage Tuesday night will take the edge off the heat on Wednesday, but still plenty warm, with Wednesday afternoon readings in the mid to upper 80s (normal is lower 80s).
Deep layer ridging will remain in place. Our region will remain in a relatively weak flow regime with a weak area of high pressure still across the Carolinas.
Low pressure aloft will remain over the region through Wednesday for cool and unsettled conditions. High pressure aloft will gradually move over the area from the west the latter part of the week for a drying and warming trend. The temp should stay near freezing through much of this morning, so went on ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Cascades above 5000 feet in Pierce and Lewis Counties. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure aloft will keep the air mass over the region cool and unsettled through Wednesday.
Pacific cold front is expected to slide into the area on Wed which will bring slightly cooler air to much of the area, but still with highs a degree or two above normal. Additional upper energy will track out of northern Pacific and reinforce the trough over the northwest CONUS. Both ECMWF and GFS agree on a sharp upper trough anchored over the western CONUS to start this period, which will keep return flow and above normal temps in place over the Plains. S winds will increase considerably Tue morning as sfc troffing likewise strengthens from along the WY/SD border to along the NM/ TX border. Areas west of I-135 will have the best chance for some of the higher gusts.
318 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Generally quiet weather continues with weak high pressure at the surface. The cold front looks to wash out as it reaches CWA, but with some moisture pooled along it and the help of the upper level forcing, have isolated to scattered showers and storms in the middle Ohio River Valley today. This feature currently has showers and storms with it across IL/IN, however concerned the washed out cold front will no longer have the umph to keep things going after the sun set. A cold front will stall or dissipate just northwest of the area.
Mid level lapse rates and flow will show a modest increase due to the passing trough, so a few strong wind gusts could be a possibility with storms that develop during peak heating.
340 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday. Still some uncertainty how far south the low clouds will get.
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east today. Stronger upper level jet will round the base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed.
High pressure remains in control with a frontal boundary just north of Arkansas. and with the influence of the upper ridge lessening allowing for an upper level disturbance to move over portions of NRN AR. though a bit more upper ridging will be seen.
A series of storm systems will push inland to our north through the week resulting in cooler than average temperatures and breezy northerly winds. Temperatures will trend downward late in the week with much cooler overnight conditions ahead of a warming trend this weekend.
Mainly dry weather is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a sharp 500 mb ridge develops quickly over the Lower Ohio Valley. However, a few diurnally induced showers or storms could develop Wednesday on the front side of the ridge. Highs by Wednesday will be near 90, except mid 80s where the highest pops are forecast over the khop area. Fairly high confidence in the extended with good model agreement and high pressure in charge. The extended continues to advertise mainly dry conditions with high pressure both at the surface and aloft. especially late in the forecast as the high starts to drift to the east. The upper level trough axis should move through the region during the morning, so anticipate VFR ceilings/cloud bases to dominate through the remainder of the forecast period.
329 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017 An upper level trough will move across the nrn Rockies this aftn and evening with brisk WSW flow aloft over nrn CO. Meanwhile a pacific fnt will move across the plains during the early evening hours with a brief period of gusty NWLY winds behind it which will bring cooler temperatures.
A cold front will move to the east this morning. SW flow aloft will prevail today ahead of an upper low in British Columbia and Alberta. West winds will develop behind the cold front this morning. Directly behind it a large trough stretches from northern California through the Pacific Northwest, Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan. Behind that a large ridge resides south of the Aleutians and moving into the Gulf of Alaska.
145 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 60s. Mins Tuesday night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness. Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose.
These winds will occur both ahead of and behind a cold front that will enter southeast Oregon during the day.
Showers were also aided by mid level warm air advection ahead of a deeper trough dropping into the Northern Plains today into this evening. Showers and storms will be on the increase from west to east tonight with the increasing LLJ ahead of the northern plains trough and cold front. The cold front passage arrives Wednesday with continued chances of showers and storms. Due to ideal timing of the cold front in the afternoon and evening, some potential for strong to severe storms. Southeast surface winds will keep lake michigan temperatures in check but above normal temperatures continue today with some slightly cooler readings for Wednesday due to more clouds and convection.
134 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Upper ridging will flatten on Tuesday, but dry conditions should prevail.
119 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure remains nearly stationary off the Eastern seaboard through Thursday. A cold front moves across on Friday.
658 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today in southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
Precipitation will taper off by noon-time today as temporary mid level ridging builds in between the aforementioned system and the next in the parade (which was located near the Four Corner's region overnight). The next storm system will begin to affect the Upper Midwest Friday with an area of low pressure developing across the plains, and moving northeast across the Upper Midwest over the weekend.
349 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
A significant warming trend will take place through late week and into the weekend as high pressure builds off the west coast.
1225 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 A strong, negatively-tilted upper-level trough will continue to mature and lift northeast into southern Iowa through the remainder of the afternoon. Convection has developed over north central to northeastern Kansas underneath the upper low, with new convection initiating just ahead of the circulation, where rapid clearing through the late morning has destabilized the environment underneath a highly sheared environment. Given the highly sheared environment, deep convection may be difficult to establish, thus at least partially mitigating the hail threat, though large hail remains possible within any rotating thunderstorms. Southwest flow will resume overnight until a warm front lifts north across central Missouri Thursday morning. As the upper level system weakens while lifting northeast by Friday, the warm front will continue to slowly lift into northern Missouri.
430 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017 The closed low pressure system responsible for the return to more wintry conditions was centered just south of the Great Salt Lake early this morning. A lobe of vorticity moving through the base of the trough was just beginning to swing northeastward over the Four Corners area and was forecast to move northward over the Colorado mountains during the day. The eastern Uinta mountains, which have seen a bit of lull overnight, will see snow increase today as the low center wobbles over central Colorado bringing a more favorable northeast flow. Afternoon highs will be the cooler than yesterday and some of the coolest experienced in some time. Models suggest snowfall intensity will decrease as the low pushes east of the Continental Divide late tonight, but coverage should continue to be widespread.
Low level high pressure ridging is in place over the southeast and mid-Atlantic states, with local low level flow from the southeast. Deep layer ridge will remain in place over the region through Friday. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Leading up to the event, an upper level low is expected to move out of the Great Basin region this morning and into the Central Rockies. A warm front is anticipated to slide northward as the day progresses. Winds south of the warm front and ahead of the dryline will generally be from the east to southeast with winds behind the dryline from the south to southwest. The storms in this area will also be capable of becoming severe but more on the lower end severe criteria.
Warmer and drier Saturday with much more isolated activity.
An upper low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest during the next couple of days with a chance of more showers and thunderstorms.
Expecting a fair amount of sun on Saturday with high temps a little warmer than today.
708 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will remain in control throughout the forecast period. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of eastern Tennessee, and there is a very slight chance a thunderstorm could impact CHA this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include even VCTS in the forecast at this time.
1221 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow dry weather to continue until a front approaches on Wednesday. Plenty of sunshine and a dry environment is leading to temperatures warmer than forecast, so bumped them up a few degrees across much of the area. Also increased sky grids slightly for ridge-based cumulus. With winds shifting to the southwest, daytime highs should run about five degrees warmer than yesterday. Although the cold front will pass through the region Wednesday, much of the lift will remain to the northeast across New York and England.
Clouds keeping southern portion of frost advisory warmer than forecast but no reason to cancel at this time. Positively tilted upper level trough from central Canada into the west coast of the U. will begin to split in the short term period with the southwest portion of the trough closing off and the northeast portion tracking across the northern plains.
827 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Broad area of high pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
High pressure settles over the region tonight, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Rain chances will be a little bit higher Wednesday and Wednesday night, as upper ridging over the region contracts, and allows a surface front to approach and move in to northern Arkansas.
1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Broad area of high pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
A drier and cooler air mass will move in from Wednesday into the weekend with near normal temperatures and only a slight chance of showers over far eastern Arizona. Moisture and clouds were on the increase during the morning hours in advance of a trough swinging across the western states. A vigorous upper low was located across central California at 330 AM and is forecast to move slowly eastward into Nevada by late this afternoon. Surface winds will respond by mid morning with gusts from 40 to 50 mph likely across Coconino county and the higher elevations of Yavapai county including Prescott. forecast models show the trough axis swinging eastward with a drier and cooler air mass moving across northern Arizona.
(Today and Tonight) Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level closed low over California and southwest flow aloft from the four corners area to the Great Lakes Region. surface/upper level ridge remains in control of the forecast area.
/issued 551 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ Remnants of the previous upper level low pressure system over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Four State Region over the next couple of days. Another upper level disturbance that was moving across West Texas in Southwest flow between a closed upper low pressure system over California and the upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast States and extention West into the forecast area, will also contribute to convection chances across Northern sections.
Current temperatures ranged from the low 60s to the mid 70s. with dewpoints running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time last night.
High pressure will maintain warm dry weather today. A weakening cold front will drop into central Indiana late tonight and Wednesday bringing the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with it. High pressure will reestablish briefly as the front washes out.
Highs will be a bit warmer today with readings from the mid to upper 80s and moisture should continue to increase during the day.
MCS drifting to the east across western parts of South Central Texas due to a weak mid level trough encountering good moist inflow with PWS near 2 inches. The weak mid level trough creates a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge.
Late this morning through early afternoon, a few showers may linger along a cold front slowly sinking into the area but most areas will experience dry conditions. There will be quite the dichotomy of temperatures across the CWA with the northwest only reaching the low 70s behind the front but the south reaching the mid 80s ahead of the front. However, dry conditions will be short-lived as during the day Wednesday a upper level trough with a closed low will move from the Great Basin and reach the northern High Plains by Wednesday night. This will force a cold front into the western Plains.
Return flow and warm advection increases Wednesday so temperatures will be warmer but still a bit below average. Upper low over the great basin will lift northeast Wednesday night reaching eastern MT by morning.
A modified OHX morning sounding only yields about 1500 J/Kg and with no shear and weak ridging aloft, we should be in good shape with the current PoP.
Abundant moisture (area PW near 2" again) combined with a weak upper level low off the Louisiana coast will continue scattered showers and thunderstorms.
/ISSUED / Weak ridging will remain over the state the next couple of days with periods of offshore shower activity moving onshore during the early morning hours. This is the case this morning as scattered showers forming along the northern edge of central Gulf low pressure quickly move inland and drop a couple of tenths of rain with their passage. A more wet (than not) pattern is still forecast to evolve over the coming days as mid to late week weak ridging transforms into weak troughing over the state.
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast today.