Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are expected to once again reach into the low to mid 90s. High pressure will be centered a little bit closer to us today and that should keep widespread convection at bay but isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon will be likely. Models continue to show a break from some of the higher heat by mid to late week.
Tonight Through Tuesday A ridge of high pressure is bringing very hot conditions this afternoon, and these conditions will continue the next couple of days. Some mixing is allowing dewpoints to drop into the lower/mid 70s in places, creating heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees. High pressure will wobble to the west, and this will allow a cold front to push into the region from the north.
A strong late-season upper low and trough is situated over northern Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler Monday with middle 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings on Tuesday. Broad ridging midweek for mostly dry and seasonable conditions becomes more unsettled by weeks end as upper level low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest.
335 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over nern Texas with a ridge extending north into the mid and lower Missouri valley. A disturbance, in association with the trough, will track into eastern South Dakota and nern Nebraska. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the northeastern forecast area in association with the trough.
1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Main challenge is slight adjustment to heat advisory headline for Monday and late day precip/convective chances along the weak cold front thru Monday night.
An upper ridge will strengthen over the Mid-South today. These dewpoints will continue to spread across the Mid-South today into Tuesday, pooling ahead of an approaching cold front. Can't rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms occurring at any point over the next 24 to 30 hours, but increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to occur by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night as a cold front moves into the Mid-South. Cooler temperatures and drier air will filter into the region behind the cold front.
High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer compared to yesterday but hopefully indices will generally stay more in the 110-115 deg range compared to the 120 deg seen in the Arkansas river valley yesterday.
308 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 We will see one more warm day before a cold front drops down from Canada. It will stall over southern New England later Tuesday as waves of low pressure track eastward along the front.
305 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the Rockies and a trough off the east coast with a ridge across the southern half of the U. Moisture continues to be limited for this forecast and will continue with the low chance pops for the western cwa tonight.
A weak cold front is still on track to push through CWFA later this afternoon allowing for chances of convection this evening into tomorrow morning.
300 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Early this morning convection had developed over central Missouri in vicinity of a northward retreating warm front near the Interstate 70 corridor. Should see temperatures into the mid 90s, along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will allow a surface cold front to push into the area overnight into early Tuesday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will move in behind the front for Tuesday night as we get back to normal mid August weather.
222 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 It will be a quiet start to the work week as dry westerly flow sets up aloft in the wake of a departing trough and as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, though upper level flow will begin to shift to the southwest as high pressure centers over New Mexico. Later in the week the moisture increases across the southern half of the area in response to the closed low approaching from the Pacific Northwest. This trough will keep drier air locked in across the northwest half of the area within the modest southwest flow.
High pressure will produce dry weather across the region through mid week. Winds will be near critical for the Snake River plain and ridgetops across the Central mountains this afternoon. Models are showing brief, weak ridging Tuesday which will drop winds some.
The trough currently over the Pacific Northwest continues to slide to the northeast dragging dry air through the Great Basin this afternoon. This gradient is evident in surface observations as well with RHs at locations in the dry air in the low 20's to mid-teens. Afternoon showers and storms remain a possibility with residual moisture in the higher elevations. Flow turns more southwesterly Tuesday as the high is forecast to shift back west over northern Mexico.
There is a slow moving cold front forecast to move across the OH to Lower-mid MS valleys that could produce strong to isolated severe storms over the far northern counties very late in the day. Heat finally breaking as we head into the period as upper ridge retreats west and broad upper troughing settles into the eastern U.
A couple of upper level impulses will help knock down the upper ridge and open the door for a cold frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday. Cooler and less humid weather is then expected for much of the rest of the week.
Low pressure will essentially split on Monday with most of the energy either over ND where an upper low will also move through, or across IA. An upper level trough and surface cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday with a few storms possible, mainly in the northeastern portion of the CWA.
Area is now between weather systems as high pressure has moved off to the east over the east central U. and low pressure is over the central Plains. mid level ridge is centered over OK and northeast TX which places the area underneath west-northwest flow aloft favorable for thunderstorm complexes developing over the Plains into IA/MO and move into IL/IN the next 24 hours. Models agree that a warm front will move across central Indiana Monday night followed by a cold front Tuesday.
315 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected today. Moisture will then increase ahead of a slow-moving cold front, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to our area later tonight and Tuesday. High clouds are in place over much of the region, which are keeping temperatures a bit warmer than yesterday morning, as well as suppressing much of the valley fog development. Upper ridging centered over eastern Texas this morning will slowly transition eastward along the Gulf Coast today. With the lower levels remaining dry/capped, and a surface boundary remaining well off to the northwest, will continue with a dry forecast for the daylight hours in agreement with HRRR/HREF.
This will start to change beginning tonight, as the persistent ridging across the Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and our flow begins to reconnect with the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over nern Texas with a ridge extending north into the mid and lower Missouri valley. A disturbance, in association with the trough, will track into eastern South Dakota and nern Nebraska. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the northeastern forecast area in association with the trough.
Temperatures and humidity continues to trend higher ahead of a wave of low pressure that will move through on Tuesday. An uptick in temperatures and dewpoints/humidity will be noticeable by this afternoon as low level flow turns south/southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front.
The upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary over the region during the period (deterministic runs. ) Combination of limited moisture and the upper ridge should preclude significant precipitation over the CWA.
Yesterday's cold front has moved through the state and off to the east, with zonal flow replacing it and settling across the region. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler today.
Upper level low pressure has ejected into MT, with mostly clear skies in its wake across the region this morning. Seasonably mild highs in the lower/mid 80s will prevail for the lower elevations this afternoon.
Early this morning convection had developed over central Missouri in vicinity of a northward retreating warm front near the Interstate 70 corridor. Should see temperatures into the mid 90s, along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will allow a surface cold front to push into the area overnight into early Tuesday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will move in behind the front for Tuesday night as we get back to normal mid August weather.
Thus, maintaining the focus on the potential for unusually hot temperatures, rather than the potential for rain and cooler temperatures, looks to be the best approach.
Current surface analysis shows cold front moving into the western Dakotas, with weak low pressure along it across far northwest SD. Upper level analysis shows trough over north central MT, moving into south central Canada. A quieter pattern can be expected for the upcoming week as a broad, but relatively flat, ridge builds across the Rockies and Plains. Showers and storms will gradually exit northwest SD later this morning, with a few showers/storms possibly across south central SD later this morning into early afternoon as cold front slows down as it passes through central SD. Behind the cold front, a relatively cool and drier airmass is expected for the first half of the week.
Late in the week an upper level trough will move over the region from the north again.
The upper ridge has receded just enough south to allow this wave to eject over the area. Wed-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the Tri-State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge, in NW-WNW flow aloft -- a notoriously challenging /inherently low-confidence/ synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances. Fri-Mon: Long range guidance suggests that flow aloft over the region will back to the WSW-SW in this period as an upper level trough amplifies over the Pacific Coast / Intermountain West and an upper level ridge amplifies over the Southern Plains. Broadly speaking, expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions -- though isolated diurnal convection cannot be ruled out on any given day.
Temperatures and humidity will trend higher early in the upcoming week ahead of a wave of low pressure that will move through on Tuesday. An uptick in temperatures and dewpoints/humidity will be noticeable by this afternoon as low level flow turns south/southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front.
942 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Upper air analysis at 500mb shows 594/595dm heights over much of Texas with the ridge so not much change at all from yesterday.
Winds will show the typical diurnal swings in direction given high pressure aloft, with sustained speeds mainly at or below 12 knots and gusts mainly below 20 knots. Surprise, surprise, another day of abnormally high temperatures continues today as the stubborn sub-tropical ridge continues to have a strong hold across the Southern Plains.
Another wave coming through Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night within flow turning more northwest as the upper ridge builds in the west and troughing develops in the eastern United States. A decent amount of CAPE of 2000+ J/kg near the lee side trough of the Rockies and Bulk shear of near 35 kts, should spark some thunderstorm activity the wave comes through.
326 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving into the western Dakotas, with weak low pressure along it across far northwest SD. Upper level analysis shows trough over north central MT, moving into south central Canada. A quieter pattern can be expected for the upcoming week as a broad, but relatively flat, ridge builds across the Rockies and Plains. Showers and storms will gradually exit northwest SD later this morning, with a few showers/storms possibly across south central SD later this morning into early afternoon as cold front slows down as it passes through central SD. Behind the cold front, a relatively cool and drier airmass is expected for the first half of the week.
Cooler weather returns for the end of the week. Hotter weather returns to the region this week as the weak lingering trough gives way to high pressure expanding northward.
Low level winds will by cyclonic around the broad and weak low pressure area across N FL. Farther north, the east coast sea breeze will move more readily inland and low level flow around the low pressure trough will allow for inland progression of numerous showers and scattered storms from metro Orlando to inland Volusia and Lake counties.
622 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the Rockies and a trough off the east coast with a ridge across the southern half of the U. Moisture continues to be limited for this forecast and will continue with the low chance pops for the western cwa tonight.
WV imagery shows upper level low centered over central Montana slowly pushing eastward. Tonight, upper low begins to move across ND, with continued chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily across the north and east. Also continued to carry a chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly north and east closer to track of upper low.
458 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 It will be a quiet start to the work week as dry westerly flow sets up aloft in the wake of a departing trough and as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, though upper level flow will begin to shift to the southwest as high pressure centers over New Mexico. Later in the week the moisture increases across the southern half of the area in response to the closed low approaching from the Pacific Northwest. This trough will keep drier air locked in across the northwest half of the area within the modest southwest flow.
High pressure continues to shift east today as residual cloud debris continues to move in from the northwest. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 97 76 / 10 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 73 95 74 / 10 10 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 93 73 95 73 / 10 10 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 91 71 / 10 10 40 60.
403 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 WV imagery shows upper level low centered over central Montana slowly pushing eastward. Tonight, upper low begins to move across ND, with continued chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily across the north and east. Also continued to carry a chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly north and east closer to track of upper low.
531 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected today. Moisture will then increase ahead of a slow-moving cold front, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to our area later tonight and Tuesday. Upper ridging centered over eastern Texas this morning will slowly transition eastward along the Gulf Coast today. With the lower levels remaining dry/capped, and a surface boundary remaining well off to the northwest, will continue with a dry forecast for the daylight hours in agreement with HRRR/HREF.
629 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Early this morning convection had developed over central Missouri in vicinity of a northward retreating warm front near the Interstate 70 corridor. Should see temperatures into the mid 90s, along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will allow a surface cold front to push into the area overnight into early Tuesday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will move in behind the front for Tuesday night as we get back to normal mid August weather.
405 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the cntl Gulf maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow across the forecast area. Water vapor/quicky 00z U/A analysis shows our mid/upper-level ridge parked nearly overhead. The ridging in place aloft will put a tamper on any widespread convection with significant capping likely to continue over most of the forecast area. then later in the day over the Atchafalaya Basin where capping is expected to be least on the periphery of the ridge. The ridging and warmer air aloft will help drive temps well into the 90s for all but the immediate coastline. Tuesday looks like a repeat of today, but a couple of degrees warmer with a few locations in the nwrn zones forecast to hit triple digits for highs.
Temperatures look to warm to near normal for the middle of the week with weak high pressure expected, and other than some morning fog, weather impacts should be low. The trend remains for a trough and possibly a low pressure system to move through the region during the end of the week and weekend.
148 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019 A deep coastal marine layer and good onshore flow of marine air will begin to diminish as high pressure builds westward.
Only weather of note includes a cold front forecast to move into northern Arkansas around 12z.
The trough that brought the weekend of severe weather has moved off to the northeast but the wrap around moisture and modest instability will be sufficient to produce the aforementioned shower and thunderstorms activity.
328 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the Rockies and a trough off the east coast with a ridge across the southern half of the U. Moisture continues to be limited for this forecast and will continue with the low chance pops for the western cwa tonight.
A weak trough will bring a chance of showers to the coast and north part of Western Washington today.
Warmer and drier mid levels should prevent activity from becoming robust or widespread.
142 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the Rockies and a trough off the east coast with a ridge across the southern half of the U. Moisture continues to be limited for this forecast and will continue with the low chance pops for the western cwa tonight.
A potent wave of low pressure will move east across the state on Tuesday, bringing a soaking rain to the northern half of the state, and several rounds of showers and gusty thunderstorms across the southern half of Pennsylvania. High temps this afternoon (ranging from the upper 70s across the highest terrain of the north and west, to the upper 80s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley) will be 3-4F above normal normal in most places.
Winds will begin to increase out of the north around 15z Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area. The mid-level thermal ridge will remain anchored over the region through Tuesday with 850mb temperatures in the 30-32C range. Cooler in the mountains and highs nearing 110F along the Rio Grande. A cold front will enter the region Tuesday but won't offer many places any relief.
/issued 1120 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ Heat dome is in full effect today as the upper level ridge is now anchored directly over the heart of the Ark-La-Tex. Also included a small sliver of slight chance POPs across our extreme SE parishes in north central Louisiana as a few showers could develop along the eastern edge of the ridge axis later this afternoon.
A cold front currently up in the plains will advance southeast tonight and is expected to be in northwest middle TN late Tue. Ahead on Tue, temps are expected to rise into the low/mid 90s, with pooling dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 70s. Weak long-wave upper trough does remain over most of eastern US but pcpn chances will be quite small. Similar pattern stays intact over the weekend although there is a hint of a vicinty cold front on Sun. VFR will continue through the next 24 hours as strong, warm high pressure builds across the area.
Temperatures are forecast to peak today and Tuesday before the ridge breaks down slightly.
The remainder of Tues should be dry and cooler than today. Still, with ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. Tilly The upper ridge over the southern U. Over the CWA, the pattern will switch to NW flow with cooler weather expected through Thurs. Have therefore trended temps warmer for Fri through the weekend. While the threat is not zero, have kept PoPs on the low side as track of individual s/w are uncertain at this time. MVFR cigs are expected behind the front tonight and cooler air pushes into the region.
A small low and accompanying shrtwv trof was over SA-MT-WY. This trof will cross the Nrn Plns tonight and begin weakening tomorrow as it mvs into MN. A wk cool front extended from this low down to a triple pt low near MCI and then SW to the OK panhandle. the low over SA will sink into ND with cold frontogenesis to its W. Some mdls hv NW flow over NEB/KS due to a stronger trof crossing the Can Prairies. while others maintain SW flow with the low/trof along the W coast remaining the dominant feature. This high will slide to the E Thu with return flow developing.
Cooler air and light winds will be in place tonight and, when combined with plenty of low-level moisture from heavy rains across portions of eastern South Dakota earlier today, patchy fog looks like a possibility into Tuesday morning especially along the Coteau. Also, a cold front will usher in cooler and drier air (highs around 10 degrees below average) and low clouds mainly across the northern half of South Dakota. CAA will continue through the day, and northwest winds will be on the increase through the afternoon as high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient tightens.
An upper ridge will strengthen over the Mid-South today. These dewpoints will continue to spread across the Mid-South today into Tuesday, pooling ahead of an approaching cold front. Can't rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms occurring at any point over the next 24 to 30 hours, but increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to occur by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night as a cold front moves into the Mid- South. Cooler temperatures and drier air will filter into the region behind the cold front.
High temperatures will be much cooler north of Interstate 40 tomorrow, with clouds and scattered storms in the area.
Expect weak high pressure near Thunder Bay to hold the precip at bay over eastern portions of the Arrowhead until this evening. Later tonight a vertically stacked low over southern Saskatchewan will move southeastward along a surface warm front into western Minnesota by Tuesday afternoon. As the upper level trough moves into the region, rain is expected to redevelop with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend cooler for much of the Northland Tuesday with easterly winds off Lake Superior along with overcast skies and precipitation. High pressure will be in charge at the surface, even though northwest flow aloft will be affecting the forecast area, with embedded impulses drifting through occasionally.
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Early this morning convection had developed over central Missouri in vicinity of a northward retreating warm front near the Interstate 70 corridor. Should see temperatures into the mid 90s, along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will allow a surface cold front to push into the area overnight into early Tuesday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will move in behind the front for Tuesday night as we get back to normal mid August weather.
Cooler and drier air will filter in, with highs in the middle and upper 80s tomorrow.
339 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 As of 20Z Monday afternoon a broad midlevel ridge axis remains across the Southern Plains with modest southwesterly flow across the Central Plains. Another quiet day is expected for Tuesday as surface ridging builds into the area, yielding clear skies and light winds. A few thunderstorms may develop across the High Plains, but anticipate any activity to remain well west of the forecast area, where better low-level theta-e resides.
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 High pressure drifting slowly eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to extend back through central North Carolina today and tonight. Southwest flow will strengthen Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.