Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
South-southeast surface flow today ahead of pretty strong trough now entering the Pacific NW. H85 temps warm sufficiently to help boost highs mostly into the lower to mid 60s today. With the mild start, temps do reach the lower 60s in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. Meanwhile, along the NE/SD border, we'll see rain turn to snow in the afternoon and linger into Monday evening, where we do have up to an inch of snow possible on grassy surfaces north of a line from Neligh to Coleridge in northeast NE. Models are pretty consistent in the track and strength of the low, with higher snowfall totals just to the north across SD.
Surface and upper ridging will keep conditions dry and unseasonably warm today with highs in the upper 50s and 60s most locations.
High pressure will provide another pleasant and unseasonably mild day across central Indiana today and into Monday before a frontal system brings rain, a dramatic pattern change, and much colder air to the area for the mid to late portions of the coming week. Quiet weather can be expected yet again today under the influence of high pressure.
Surface lee-side trof currently over eastern New Mexico will deepen during the day on Sunday as it moves into western part of forecast area. /Issued 252 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ The upper level closed low is currently over the Baja Peninsula. Meanwhile, a low pressure trough will move into the Pacific northwest. By Monday, the southern wave becomes absorbed into the main flow and the northern wave crosses the northern Plains and sends a cold front south into the Panhandles.
/issued 241 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ The closed upper low over Baja California will open up as it moves east and will pass over the South Plains as an open wave Sunday. Southwest flow has brought moisture from this low to the region in the form of low clouds, which have kept temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon. While moisture will increase and dewpoints will reach the low 50s Sunday afternoon, most of the energy with the wave will stay to our south with only some sprinkles possible for the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Downsloping winds will help temperatures to rise ahead of the front on Monday, with a gradient from the low 60s to mid 70s northwest to southeast for highs. As the trough moves across the plains it will push the stronger Canadian front through Monday evening.
Currently the upper patter is somewhat zonal from the Plains into the eastern Conus with a trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the coast of the Carolinas upper ridging extending from the Gulf into the Plains and MS Valley regions with an upper level trough moving across portions of the western Conus. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is developing/strengthening over the OH Valley region. The entire column is expected to dry with the ridge building in and PW is expected to drop to around a quarter of an inch.
A significant upper trof will move across the western CONUS during Sunday before moving into the northern/central Plains on Monday. Model consensus has trended a bit faster moving the initial cold front across central Kansas to the turnpike corridor by midday. The modified nature of the cooler, much drier Pacific origin air will result in steep low level lapse rates across central Kansas from late morning through early afternoon. Meanwhile, modest low level moisture transport will result in weak to modest instability ahead of the cold front across southeast Kansas, which supports the going chances for showers and a few storms. The upper trof will deepen as it lifts northeast across the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes Monday night with the stronger secondary cold front and much colder air plunging south across central and eastern Kansas.
Dry, Warmer, Increasing Winds. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible over the higher terrain toward morning. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible in the mountains with gusts to 30 mph or so at the lower elevations. Trough will move across the northern Rockies Sunday night and into Monday. Trough has been trending further north. Gusty winds will accompany with the trough passage Sunday night over the mountains. Further east, Pacific cold front will pass over the region later Sunday evening. Another cold front will move in from the north midday Monday over the plains. With the trough staying further to the north, very light if any snowfall is anticipated for the eastern mountains and plains. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Monday, but not much below normal.
A cold frontal boundary lies across southern Canada and this may be held up for 6 to 12 hours as increasing southeast flow molds the cold air back. Clouds will increase through the night as an upper level trough and associated cold front in south central Canada begins shifting south. Highs will be in the lower 30s north. A strong cold front will usher in colder air, wind, and light snow Sunday night through Monday.
/issued 222 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) An approaching upper level low will continue shifting east tonight and weaken leaving behind a weak disturbance that will impact the area on Sunday afternoon. Highs will still be above normal in the lower 70s though.
Skies are clear with calm winds, and ridge/valley temperature splits have been common all night. Some cooler spots have dipped into the low to mid 30s, with others still in the upper 30s to low 40s. An upper level ridge will build east across the region today into tonight. At the surface, we'll see light east or southeast winds develop this afternoon as high pressure shifts eastward. With plenty of sun and modest warm advection in the low levels, highs today will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Monday, we'll be in the warm sector of a strengthening low pressure system in the Upper Midwest. Rain showers are likely to develop and move in from the west late Monday evening ahead of the surface cold front.
Tonight Through Monday Water vapor satellite imagery showed a compact upper level low pressure system over the Arizona/Mexico border. The compact upper low over southern Arizona is expected to move east spreading some weak large scale forcing for ascent over Arkansas Sunday afternoon. a much larger upper trough will be moving southeast towards the Central Plains from the northwestern CONUS. The much larger upper trough will cause low-level cyclogenesis to focus over the central high plains causing an increase in southerly winds and positive moisture transport across Arkansas on Sunday. The best rain chances will hold off until Monday evening/overnight when the much stronger upper level storm system moves east over the central CONUS sending a strong cold front southeast across Arkansas.
1053 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 Mild pattern setting up for tonight into Sunday as large upper level trough works into the Pacific Northwest and increasing southerly flow develops ahead of this disturbance across the plains. Expect a fair amount of high clouds, and this combined with increasing southerly winds, should keep elevate locations a bit warmer than more sheltered sites. Fairly substantial change expected in the extended with strong cold front associated trough shifting east out of the Pacific Northwest into the Plains moves through the forecast area Monday morning. Behind this system, appears much cooler air reigns across much of the country under the influence of northwest flow.
216 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 An upper level trough will swing across the area today accompanied by high and mid level cloudiness. High pressure returns for tonight and Monday.
Upper flow turns more to the SW as upper level low currently evident coming onshore the OR/WA coast slides into the western US. These increased southerly winds will work to usher in the moisture return for Monday's precipitation and, despite the higher relative humidity values, lead to one final day of moderate to high fire danger with dry conditions already in place. By tonight, attention turns to the previously mentioned upper level low that will be ejecting into the north central plains and bring with it a renewed taste of wintry weather. As the low continue to pull to the northeast, this band of precipitation will pivot through the rest of our coverage area, again leading to a rain changing to snow scenario.
Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains today into tonight, as a strong upper trough moves across the western states. The strong upper trough will eject eastward across the Northern/Central Plains late tonight into Monday. The cold front timing has sped up compared to this time yesterday, and by midday Monday, the front will have cleared central Kansas and should be near the turnpike corridor.
301 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Clear skies prevailing over the forecast area early this morning, courtesy of high pressure over the Midwest.
Surface ridging will keep winds light/calm, generally below 5kts.
Moisture continues to wrap around the low into the Okanogan Highlands/Vly and will let these Advisories for snow continue into tonight. Drier air moving in behind the weather system will begin to clear out the low clouds across the basin and into the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor, but may not clear out as far Pullman.
Looking upstream, believe we're in for another bout of similar conditions into Sunday, though temps will still remain well on the mild side with 925mb temps about 1C warmer than today supporting highs nearing 50-53 for many areas, slightly cooler far north of course. These CAPES will then climb into the 250 to 750 J/kg ahead of a dry a slot and the surface cold front on Monday afternoon. Some of the storms along the cold front may become surface based. With strong 0-3 km shear, expect a line of showers and scattered storms to develop along the cold front. On Monday night, a strong cold front will move through the area.
144 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Targets of short term forecast opportunity remain in the high temp forecast Today and Tmrw, as we continue to spot up a degree or two from the blend.
with the associated ridge axis extending northward thru Michigan. Weak area of low pressure has pushed east of Upper Michigan early this morning. especially across the NW half of our CWA in the afternoon as southerly flow begins to strengthen ahead of our next low pressure system. ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the NW half of our CWA to the lower 30s in the SE half.
Broad upper ridging will develop across the Midwest ahead of an upper trough pushing ashore the Pacific coast through the day. Ahead of the trough, surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern high plains with winds becoming southerly. With mild 925 mb temps in the 6-9C range, it will be another pleasant day with highs generally in the low to mid 50s, although do again expect quite a bit of mid and high cloud cover. With the low passing to the west of the area, this keeps the local area on the warm side of the low with highs in the 50s to low 60s and breezy south winds. A much colder weather pattern is expected through the rest of the week dominated by an eastern CONUS trough and western ridge.
So for the short term, a developing low over Montana and wyoming early Sunday will bring moderate h850 warm advection into southern North Dakota as well as hold up a cold front across southern Canada.
Sunday will be another above normal day and one of the last pleasant days before a cold front moves through and the pattern shifts to cooler weather. Winds: As the pattern shifts, a cold front will move through the area early Monday.
Very light east to southeast winds relaxing and and combined with a warm front drifting northward toward the area expect to see the fog and stratus to become more widespread. /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ At 2 PM, high pressure was over the eastern US and a weak trough of low pressure extended from central OK into west central Texas.
332 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Much above normal temperatures will continue today through Monday with mainly zonal flow aloft continuing across the region with low level thermal ridging in place.
311 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure overhead will shift to the eastern seaboard on Monday as a strong frontal system approaches from the west. Chances for showers increase ahead of the cold front with the best potential for widespread showers and even a thunderstorm on Monday night.
Upper trough pushes south and east of the forecast area by tonight with another open wave tracking south and east across the Great Basin region and Rockies tonight and then into the northern and central Plains states Monday.
A strong U/L ridge will persist today across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. This will gradually suppress the U/L ridge over the Gulf and Florida to the south, with the southern extent of the westerlies sinking over the northern Gulf and Florida tonight and Monday. In any case, these abnormally warm temperatures will be supported by a flat but persistent upper ridge across the Gulf of Mexico.
This system will then accelerate east-northeast into the mid-MO Valley on Monday ahead of a rapidly amplifying polar- branch trough over central Canada into the northern Plains. In the low levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over WY tonight into Sunday before developing into northeast NE/southeast SD Monday morning, and eventually WI by Monday evening. Strengthening southerly low-level winds ahead of the cyclone will encourage the poleward flux of heat and moisture through the mid- MO Valley tonight into Sunday night, yielding an increase in precipitation chances by Monday into Monday night. On Sunday, the low-level warming will be offset to some extent by an encroaching cirrus canopy with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the surface cyclone develops to our northeast on Monday, an associated strong cold front will surge southeast through the area.
418 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region today will move offshore late Monday.
Mid and high cloud cover will increase through the night as the upper low in northern Mexico edges closer to the Southern Plains region bringing upper level moisture with it. /Issued 359 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ We will see two more days of unseasonable warmth before much cooler temperatures move into the area. Some places will see near record warmth the next two days, especially Monday just ahead of the cold front that will move across the area during the afternoon and evening. Much colder temperatures will follow the cold front, but overall temperatures the rest of the week will only average a few degrees below normal.
Otherwise, the higher dewpoints and increasing clouds will keep temperatures well into the 50s for tonight's lows.
As high pressure strengthens to the north, what's left of the weak frontal boundary will push southward, and onshore winds and perhaps lingering stratus along the coast and across southeast Georgia is possible today. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s expected across most of the area. Mid and upper level flow won't change much between today and tonight - with mainly northwest flow courtesy of a weak ridge across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
/ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ At 2 PM, high pressure was over the eastern US and a weak trough of low pressure extended from central OK into west central Texas.
By Monday evening, a cold front will be approaching from the west as winds aloft become more swly and increase.
319 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Two more days of unseasonably warm temperatures are expected before a cold front moves through Monday afternoon into Monday night dropping temperatures back to more of what is expected in early December. This is in advance of cold front that is expected to move across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday Afternoon/Evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the region.
1135 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 Weak high pressure will remain across central and southeast Illinois through the night. High pressure is dominating the weather map this afternoon, centered in the Plains as weak waves ripple along the flow aloft through the Great Lakes. However, the ridge axis is still to the east and will be moving over the region tonight. Weaker winds under the ridge should allow for some fairly efficient radiational cooling. but starting a little warmer than previously forecast as well with todays highs.
South to southwest winds will increase some Sunday as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to low pressure deepening across western South Dakota. An upper trough will dig across Montana and Wyoming Sunday night with models indicating a weakly defined closed low developing in east central wyoming toward 12z Monday. The system will track east Monday, with a weak closed low indicated along the Nebraska-South Dakota border, into extreme southeast South Dakota by early Monday evening. The focus will be behind the trough axis where weak mid level frontogenesis is located as it moves across north central Nebraska. Morning highs are expected, with highs only in the lower 30s Sheridan county, to the low 40s far southeast. The highest accumulation of 1 to 2 inches are forecast along and north of highway 20, where likely pops forecast.
An upper level trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pac NW will cause a weak upper level ridge to push across the region tonight through Sunday. 925 and 850 mb temps associated with the ridge are between 1. The system will initially be moisture starved, and thus it will take a bit of time/UVM to get things going and moisten up the lower to mid troposphere.
Update: Despite a relatively strong vort max, the air mass has been slow to moisten over Norcal as the higher PW air gets shunted Swd by the incoming trof.
457 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure overhead will shift to the eastern seaboard on Monday as a strong frontal system approaches from the west. Chances for showers increase ahead of the cold front with the best potential for widespread showers and even a thunderstorm on Monday night.
Dry weather will continue into Monday as a deep-layer ridge shifts eastward ahead of a developing storm system. A major shift in the weather pattern is expected for the rest of the week and beyond as a longwave trough develops over Eastern North America.
1212 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
1208 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Weak ridging to remain over region tonight. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures to drop off pretty quick after sunset, then steady out as ridge begins to move east towards daybreak and winds become southeasterly. The large scale pattern will significant amplification as the upper low/trof currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast deepens and moves east/southeast over the next 36+ hours and into the Rockies on early Monday. This trof will then eject east/northeast through the Plains on Monday and begin to merge with a digging northern stream upper trof from Canada.
A building upper ridge over the western coast will keep CO under continued NW flow aloft. Drying under the ridge will keep the region dry through Wednesday. Wednesday highs will be slightly warmer than normal in the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s. Strong upper level ridging will dominate northern Colorado weather for the latter half of the week. Winds aloft will be light and west to northwesterly, bringing warmer temperatures to the region.
Strong low and mid level warm advection ahead of the trough has pushed high temperatures into the lower 20s to lower 30s on the plains, with warmer temperatures over the Black Hills and in the downslope areas along the the eastern slopes.
Late tonight into Wednesday, a cold front will shift the wind back to a northerly direction, as a trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
311 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 A building upper ridge over the western coast will keep CO under continued NW flow aloft. Drying under the ridge will keep the region dry through Wednesday. Wednesday highs will be slightly warmer than normal in the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s. Strong upper level ridging will dominate northern Colorado weather for the latter half of the week. Winds aloft will be light and west to northwesterly, bringing warmer temperatures to the region.
With the majority of the forecast area not seeing any sunshine, temperatures have struggled to get above the freezing mark. With short wave moving quickly, may not be enough time to moisten up the low layers enough for significant precipitation to fall through. Temperatures during the daytime will be "warmer" tomorrow, as clear skies in wave of the short wave should allow for solar heating to take place.
Frigid Arctic air will flow back into the Northland tonight and Wednesday in the wake of this Clipper and its cold front. While north flow will maintain the Arctic air over the Northland Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit warmer than more recent spats of Arctic air.
926 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Canadian high pressure building toward the region overnight will move east of the region Wednesday.
Will be looking for overnight lows to drop mainly into the lower and mid teens. overall warming trend continues for the region with H5 ridge pushing eastward. Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s east up to the lower and mid 40s for western areas.
707 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Canadian high pressure building toward the region overnight will move east of the region Wednesday.
A persistent area of high pressure over California and Nevada will finally give way to a weak Pacific system that will move into central and northern California by Wednesday night.
Webcams mostly showing drifting snow across the highways, but there is also another are of light snow/flurries within the wrap around moisture dropping south across central ND. The high drops over central and into eastern ND Wednesday morning and coldest overnight temperatures are expected from the Turtle Mountains into the James River valley.
The result of the above conditions will aid in low temperatures in the single digits to upper teens and wind chill values a few degrees below zero to the low teens to be possible for the CWA.
624 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Arctic air persists under strong high pressure into mid week. Cold front and upper trough for latter half of the week. Strong Arctic high pressure overhead, making for clear skies and cold temps across the region. High pressure still firmly in control of the sensible weather across the area. Temperatures in the lowlands approach freezing, but will likely fall just short for most on Wednesday.
831 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 MSAS analysis shows inverted trough off the east coast, giving way to a more northerly flow over much of the area, while winds are more onshore from the Treasure Coast southward. Tight gradient will continue to produce breezy conditions through late evening, and then the models indicate a brief decrease in wind speeds as area of low pressure off the southeast Florida coast shifts northward late tonight. Precipitation will be more limited across inland areas through midnight, then rain chances are expected to increase for interior and northern portions of the area late tonight as isentropic lift increases and disturbances ahead of a sharp S/W trough moves through the area.
following on the heels of a cold frontal from earlier today.
Behind this feature, more bitterly cold air will surge southward, resulting in temperatures dropping through the late afternoon after peaking around 10 degrees near Galesburg to the low 20s south of I-70.
Temperatures are in the upper teens to low 20s with dew points in the low single digits. around 5mph or less so wind chills are only slightly only slightly cooler than temperatures. generally in the low to middle teens. Morning lows will be in the low to middle teens with most wind chill values in the 5 to 10 degree range. Our stretch of below freezing temperatures will finally come to an end tomorrow for most of the Midsouth, although areas of northwest Tennessee may only just reach 32 degrees. However sustained "warmth" will have to wait, as overnight lows plummet back into the teens behind yet another Arctic cold front.