Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly clear skies rest of tonight with a few mid and high clouds expected to push in from the west late toward sunrise ahead of the next low pressure system. Lows in the mid to upper 30s expected inland Tonight, with readings in the lower to mid 40s near the coast.
Through the day today, there has been a thick low level stratus in place, which has spit out some occasional light drizzle, which has formed in sub-freezing surface conditions.
With no significant airmass change for Wednesday, look for temperatures Wednesday to only be a couple of degrees warmer than what we see this afternoon.
Latest satellite and radar trends indicate that our upper level low is exiting the area, with the main 500mb low center now over the Red River Valley north of Wichita Falls. This will setup some decent radiational cooling with some potential for freezing fog development, especially in the areas where snow amounts were highest. For now, we are issuing a Freezing Fog Advisory for the far northeast Texas Panhandle and Eastern half of the Oklahoma Panhandle, as this is where confidence is sufficient for widespread dense freezing fog to occur. Going into the daylight hour tomorrow, the upper level pattern will transition ahead of the next 500mb low pressure.
An upper level trough will pass through the Great Basin tonight through Wednesday. High pressure will build back across the area late into the week, and remain through the upcoming weekend.
628 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
Both are embedded in a larger trough that will move over the bi-state region.
649 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Light winds will turn northeast as high pressure builds north of the region tonight.
836 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Upslope pattern again tonight followed by a weak high pressure Wednesday.
/issued 340 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/ A closed low pressure system currently over southwest Oklahoma will continue shift east/southeast today bringing light showers to the area. Temperatures should be warmer tonight compared to last night with low temperatures in the 40s south and west of the Mississippi River. Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel will still be cooler than the rest of the area but temperatures should dip down into mid 30s. The system will move towards the east coast by Wednesday and another trough will dive southeast from the west coast. This will place our area under a ridge bringing dry weather.
Forecasting low temperatures and timing the fog and possible dense fog will still be uncertain, but a dense fog advisory may be needed as the western edge of the cool air in central North Dakota usually will have the lowest visibilities. A very slow moving warm front continues to move eastward across central North Dakota, with an area of light snow across the James River Valley.
Ripples of short wave troughs have seemed to be the trend over the last couple of weeks for the Deep South and will continue in the near term. A quickly moving short wave trough will push through the ArkLaMiss tonight and into tomorrow bringing in rain showers. A low pressure system tracking through the ArkLATex, which is associated with this trough will help bring some showers to the region earlier today, as locations in the west are already currently experiencing some light showers. Though this is a quickly moving system and expectations of impactful weather aren't a concern, wouldn't rule out some embedded thunder for portions in the south where they are closer to the area of low pressure/instability.
However the winds remain fairly light in the low levels, less than 10 kt. Weak low pressure trof may have enough weak convergence to generate some flurries inland as well as a little light freezing drizzle or mist. Passing weak low pressure trof may set off some flurries or light freezing drizzle or mist farther inland overnight.
557 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Another day of stratus, trapped under subsidence inversion of incoming mid-level ridge. The ridge of high pressure moves overhead tonight with stratus remaining entrenched across the area. Some warm air advection/isentropic upglide occurs ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas into MN/IA. The Northern Plains trough continues to push east into the area Wednesday. A weak ridge of high pressure builds in Wednesday night for a quiet/cloudy night.
Temperatures have been trending cooler than previously thought. Cooling should slow with the reintroduction of overcast skies, but went ahead and dropped the expected lows into the low 30s and updated hourly temperatures and pops to reflect current conditions. Other sites saw a short break in the low clouds, but can expect cigs to fall again late tonight.
329 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 A weak upper level trough and surface front will slowly push across the eastern CWA through this evening, bringing light snowfall. Buffer soundings support the potential for patchy freezing drizzle, or flurries through Wednesday evening as well. Will hold off on adding patchy freezing drizzle for now. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and mid 30s.
There remains a very slight chance for localized freezing rain after midnight from about Hardin southeast through Broadus and mainly for river valley locations that will need to be monitored, but at this point it remains a very low probability and will keep out of forecast for now. Ridge brings subsidence and drier air into the area Wednesday afternoon with breezy northwest winds.
740 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Upslope pattern again tonight followed by a weak ridge on Wednesday.
A Pacific cold front will bring rain and snow to the mountain areas of southwest Montana through late tonight.
Clearing skies in the wake of the storm system, radiational cooling, a very moist and cool boundary layer, light winds and snow cover will set the stage for a dense freezing fog event starting as early as 9 pm and persisting until after 9 am before the sun warms the surface. Opted to issue a dense fog advisory for all but the southeast and extreme west, and mention freezing on surfaces in the discussion part of the product (TOPNPWDDC). Similar conditions will exist Wednesday night, with dense freezing fog likely once again.
536 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 A weak upper level trough and surface front will slowly push across the eastern CWA through this evening, bringing light snowfall. Buffer soundings support the potential for patchy freezing drizzle, or flurries through Wednesday evening as well. Will hold off on adding patchy freezing drizzle for now. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and mid 30s.
Otherwise expect periodic light valley rain and mountain snow showers to linger through this evening with freezing fog likely to form early Wednesday morning in many valleys.
618 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 For the 29/00Z TAF period, IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to prevail for much of this period as an area of low pressure and cold front gradually shift across the region. /Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Upper trof axis movg across TX this aftn will continue its slog ewd across our region tonight into early Wednesday.
Main concern revolves around a low pressure system, currently over the Red River in southern OK/northern TX at 19Z, which will move east southeast over the next 24 hours. A vast area of precipitation over OK/AR/LA associated with this low is already making its way slowly northeastward toward the area. Rain is likely in many areas, but sleet, snow and/or freezing rain are possible in the higher terrain in southeast MO, especially Carter up through Perry county MO and into southwest IL. Surface temperatures will be around freezing to above freezing during that time frame. The wintry precipitation will continue to be likely across all but the southern tier counties Wednesday morning, as the upper level trough starts moving across.
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the state of Alabama with cirrus streaming off of a low pressure system currently over Texas. Building cloud cover will keep overnight lows mild, only dropping to the low 40s to upper 30s.
Low pressure in east Texas will continue to work east and move through Louisiana tonight. This low will move into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon. For the most part, lows tonight are not going to be cold enough for snow to stick, except perhaps in the higher mountain tops. As far as the big picture is concerned, the upper low is churning this way and is located over southern OK/northern TX. There is a bit of a dry slot wrapping up into the low over TX, but this will likely fill in quite a bit as the low approaches AR overnight. The low will move slowly across AR tonight, and the models do have some differences of opinion as to how quickly it will move to the east.
Temperatures have been trending cooler than previously thought. Cooling should slow with the reintroduction of overcast skies, but went ahead and dropped the expected lows into the low 30s and updated hourly temperatures and pops to reflect current conditions.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Much of the rain has now moved well east of North and Central Texas as the cold front has now entered Louisiana. Tonight, cloud cover will remain in place throughout the region with lows expected to range from the lower 30s in the west to mid 40s in the east. /Issued 139 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/ /Thursday onward/ Another cool day expected on Thursday with high temperatures struggling to reach the low 50s across North Texas.
Low-level moisture will remain entrenched across the region with wrap-around clouds persisting on backside of departing upper- trough the short term period ending Thursday.
Additional cloudiness will then be moving into the area in the afternoon with some showers possible later this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure moves across the area from the Gulf. This allowed many of us to climb into the lower 70s but also dry out as dewpoints dipped into the 30s north of I-4. This low will bring a chance for showers into the overnight hours.
945 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020 Current surface map places warm front into central South Dakota. Upper trof currently approaching the Rockies slides into the plains on Wednesday.
Light to gentle breezes will continue through the day on Wednesday, though winds will become southerly late Wednesday in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is currently sharp and progressive as it currently trails from from far eastern Texas into the western Gulf. A weakening cold front will limp through the Keys waters on Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Highs will generally remain in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region, with lows tonight bottoming out into the low 40s.
Rainfall was expanding over central and southern MS in response to better upper diffluence and mid level moisture transport in advance of the upper low along the Red River. It will help to begin moistening the low to mid levels, so will maintain the low PoP in later tonight. Weak surface ridging will build into the TN Valley and allow for partly cloudy skies Thursday with again mild temperatures expected as high temperatures reach the low to mid 50s.
1023 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
157 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 It's chilly out there this morning, but not freezing.
Widespread light precipitation continues across eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas in association with upper trough. Although temperatures have fallen to around freezing over far northern portions of Osage/Washington counties, precipitation has been very light and radar trends indicate wintry mix just northwest of that area is shrinking in coverage.
942 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Only light precipitation in the form of mostly rain/drizzle and sleet remains across our FA tonight as the mid to upper trough progresses eastward. A dusting of sleet/snow will remain possible near Kay County for another hour where temps have dropped to freezing but even this is a stretch. It still appears at least some patchy freezing fog will try to develop across northwestern OK where snowpack is present and some clearing may occur in combination with decreasing wind speeds. Otherwise, expect temps to drop to near or below freezing mainly along and north of I-44 by sunrise. Skies should begin to clear somewhat in the west as the storm system moves east, but with fresh snow cover, clearing skies and light winds, will have the potential of freezing fog Wednesday morning.
LIFR to IFR ceilings with scattered rain showers are expected to continue over the CWA overnight tonight as a low pressure system moves through the region. Widespread light precipitation continues across eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas in association with upper trough. Although temperatures have fallen to around freezing over far northern portions of Osage/Washington counties, precipitation has been very light and radar trends indicate wintry mix just northwest of that area is shrinking in coverage.
/issued 252 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Upper trough will move off to the east tonight, with short wave ridging aloft developing on Wednesday.
230 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 While some light rain is possible to the south and west of Raleigh tonight, high pressure should generally keep the weather dry today and tomorrow.
Currently, Do not expect to see much more a few tenths of an inch outside of the mountains and 3-6 inches over the high peaks of the Snowys and Sierra Madres. Better chances for snow will be seen to the west of the Laramie Range, however, by Thursday, a weak 700 mb low will bring enhanced shower activity to the Pine Ridge area, though expecting precipitation to fall as rain, for the most part, except along the ridge itself.
359 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and perhaps a spot of freezing drizzle will end early today.
321 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure provides mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures today.
Trough axis moves east of the area by late this afternoon into the early evening, ending rain chances from west to east. High pressure will quickly shift east of the region as another coastal low pressure develops southwest of the region.
/28/ Ripples of short wave troughs have seemed to be the trend over the last couple of weeks for the Deep South and will continue in the near term. A quickly moving short wave trough will push through the ArkLaMiss tonight and into tomorrow bringing in rain showers. A low pressure system tracking through the ArkLATex, which is associated with this trough will help bring some showers to the region earlier today, as locations in the west are already currently experiencing some light showers. Though this is a quickly moving system and expectations of impactful weather aren't a concern, wouldn't rule out some embedded thunder for portions in the south where they are closer to the area of low pressure/instability.
Weak ridging aloft will build over the region today as yesteday's upper level trough pulls away. The next upper level low is forecast to dig through the Southwest U.
With temps there already at freezing, will add a mention of freezing fog. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 37 53 40 50 / 40 20 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 37 51 38 49 / 30 30 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 48 36 50 38 49 / 30 30 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 36 47 35 49 / 30 40 20 0 20.
154 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Dirty high pressure today. The lowlands will see high temperatures around the upper 30s and lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The high temperatures in the mountains should be around the lower 30s and lows temperatures should be in the lower 20s.
1256 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
The rapidly progressive upper air pattern will bring clearing and colder weather from the north tonight as a short wave ridge moves in. The ridge will shift east Wednesday and more rain and snow will spread across eastern Oregon Wednesday afternoon, and then into western Idaho Wednesday evening.
Then warmer weather for the weekend. High pressure will dominate on Thursday so we don't expect much clearing of the low clouds, so another cloudy January day.
A weak upper level trough and surface front will slowly push across the eastern CWA through this evening, bringing light snowfall. Buffer soundings support the potential for patchy freezing drizzle, or flurries through Wednesday evening as well. Will hold off on adding patchy freezing drizzle for now. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and mid 30s.
May still see some patchy freezing fog in the far northeast and eastern Panhandles, but widespread coverage should remain east of the Panhandles in western Oklahoma through the morning hours. Temperatures will range from the mid and upper 30s in the NE Panhandles where high albedo from snow cover will keep the temperatures cooler to lower 50s for the southern and southwestern TX Panhandle. Weak low level flow in- conjunction with equatorward displacement of the more pronounced low to mid level lift where the apex of trough axis is located will limit precipitation chances for the region.
501 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Cool high pressure across MN and IA will be slow to shift east, which will keep winds on the light side through the day. This may be just enough to keep the lowest few hundred feet from completely saturating and keeping the fog threat to patchy and areas of lower visibility.
Light snow or light freezing drizzle possible on Thursday west and central, before a warming trend begins for the weekend. A light glaze of ice is also possible as forecast BUFR soundings so varying levels of saturation within the ice production layer, suggesting at least some light freezing drizzle is possible.
409 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Cool high pressure across MN and IA will be slow to shift east, which will keep winds on the light side through the day. This may be just enough to keep the lowest few hundred feet from completely saturating and keeping the fog threat to patchy and areas of lower visibility.
600 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 While some light rain is possible to the south and west of Raleigh tonight, high pressure should generally keep the weather dry today and tomorrow.
Thompson (Thursday through next Wednesday) The next chance for rain will be on Thursday through Thursday night for S/SE Oklahoma as a low amplitude trough passes overhead. Soundings suggest a rather shallow layer of moisture (roughly 925 to 850mb) and couple this with the lift from the trough, a light rain and/or drizzle is possible.
558 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Southern stream system beginning to affect forecast area with mostly light snow, though do have some sleet and freezing rain over portions of southeast MO where a warm nose aloft, about +2C, is causing melting of the ice crystals. Will see some mix of light snow and rain this afternoon as temperatures warm up above freezing, mainly over portions of southwestern IL.
Upper level ridging and mainly sunny skies will move into the area today, but continued north winds at the surface will hold temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 30s. Some of the valley locations could see temperatures near or below freezing if winds become light.
Upper level ridge building into northwest western Montana will increase northerly flow aloft which will further drive this activity south of the region. Much drier air and clear skies will accompany the push of the ridge so despite cooler mid level air expect a warmer start this morning and sunshine to again push temperatures into the 40s. Movement of the upper level ridge off the Canadian Rockies overnight will allow for pressure falls which will strengthen leeside winds for gap flow areas. Like previous system a chance for some freezing rain in the central zones late tonight into early Thursday.
422 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 The 500 mb trof which brought very windy conditions to the eastern half of the CWA yesterday is now well off to the east and ridging will take its place today. A light rain-snow mix is possible Thursday AM across the western and northern areas, however models have trended down with QPF across the entire CWA due to positioning of the upper low and lack of deep moisture and upper lift. Temperatures should warm above freezing by Thursday afternoon and precip will transition to liquid thereafter, but a dusting of snow will still be possible in some areas with up to an inch in the highest elevations of the Guadlupe Mountains.
MVFR deck around 3K feet is wrapping around the back side of the low pressure system. Weak ridging aloft will build over the region today as yesteday's upper level trough pulls away. The next upper level low is forecast to dig through the Southwest U.
It's chilly out there this morning, but not freezing.
407 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Weak ridging is in place across the area this morning, with an area of low pressure in place over the northern Gulf on the LA coast. This low will quickly push eastward today, with the moisture ahead of it bringing some rain chances across the area this afternoon and evening and clearing from the west overnight as the low crosses the state into the Atlantic.
/issued 402 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ Cold front approaching Acadiana early this morning and can be seen by a few very light returns on local radar.
Low pressure centered over the Louisiana Gulf Coast is responsible for the rain over the region. As the low continue to move east today more rain is expected to move through the Mid-South.
Other than a few high clouds spilling over the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region early this morning with some areas of patchy valley fog. Strong ridging builds across NorCal into the weekend resulting in dry and unseasonably mild temperatures the next several days.
For the beginning of the event, temperature soundings are so close, it could go either way for freezing rain or snow, just the difference of a couple degrees aloft. We have kept totals on the lower side as, mentioned above, the best lift with this system misses us. A cold front will be pulled through on the backside of this system, and model runs coming in as this discussion is being typed are now trying to pump out some very meager PoPs with its passage.
Majority of the day appears to be mostly free from showers, due to a weak high pressure ridge passing through the region. This high pressure may cause the region to have stable conditions, and as a result, fog and low cloud cover may linger in the valleys of central Idaho and western Montana. Cloud cover is forecast to quickly increase during Thursday evening with the arrival of the next warm front.
Today, an upper trough will drop trough Montana, into the Dakotas and Wyoming, bringing mostly cloudy skies to western Nebraska. For tonight, despite the upper trough passage, models indicate weak subsidence for a dry forecast, with just a mostly cloudy sky. Another approaching upper trough in northwest flow will bring a slight chance for rain to the northwest Sandhills Thursday afternoon. As the upper trough moves into the Western Great Lakes, a chance for snow, possibly mixed with rain, Thursday night across northern Nebraska.
Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the forecast area, low clouds and dense freezing fog have backed into mainly the eastern half of Tripp county in south central South Dakota. Have issued a Dense Fog advisory for that area due to the low visibility 1/4 mile or less and chances of slippery driving conditions due to the freezing fog.
833 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure provides mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures today. With high pressure building across the region, scattered flurries should end in the next few hours. Some minor snow accumulation of less than an inch is possible, mainly in the higher elevations.