Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the axis of high pressure moves east, the high will build south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Overall, tomorrow may be cooler, but it will still be a pleasant day. Jaja The region remains stuck in northwest flow aloft wedged between a mid-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes/New England and a ridge building into the Four Corners region. A clear sky overnight will allow for effective cooling tonight, with lows falling into the upper 30s across areas north of I-70, while areas to the south of I-70 will fall into the low 40s. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to make it out of the 60s owing to the cool start to the morning and another shot of robust cold air advection in the low-levels during the day.
A large dome of high pressure extended from the southwestern portion of Hudson Bay southeastward into the Red River Valley of the North. Low pressure east of the Great Lakes was keeping a pressure gradient and northerly winds in place across western Lake Superior this afternoon, leading to cloud cover downstream of Lake Superior in northwestern Wisconsin. These clouds will clear this evening and winds become light and variable as high pressure continues to build in. This high and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s over much of the Northland tonight with lower 30s adjacent/near Lake Superior. With much of the area expected to fall below freezing, have issued a Freeze Warnings for all of our zones. While areas near Lake Superior will remain slightly warmer, frost will be possible in these areas.
745 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 With very dry air and winds becoming light, tonight will be as cool and maybe a degree or 2 cooler than last night for some spots. The forecast has been updated to drop the lows slightly for tonight and lower RH values, especially the next couple of afternoons when dry air and gusty winds will create fire wx concerns.
750 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead to scattered showers mainly across the Great Lake overnight. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in continued dry weather. Amplified mid level flow with a mean long wave trof over the Great Lakes and New England. Low temperatures 8 to 10 degrees below normal -- ranging from the lower 40s and middle north where more cloud cover is expected to near 40 south. Amplified flow pattern with 500 MB trof hanging back across the area Wednesday. Temperatures to remain below normal with lows in the lower and middle 40s.
(through Tonight) The squeeze between building high pressure to the north and the advancement of Hurrican Ian from the south will enhance the pressure gradient through the night. Lows Tonight will range from the upper 50s over inland SE GA, to the lower 70s over coastal NE FL.
545 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 There was an increase in moisture today which was led to scattered showers and a few storms, over the higher terrain, especially along and south of I-70. Most of this activity will stay over the higher terrain, mainly along and south of I-70. Models are pretty well in line leading up to the weekend with the placement of the closed upper low. This system is expected to drop south with the low center over Wyoming and a trailing trough into the Great Basin that will bring us increased chances for precipitation into the weekend.
948 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead to scattered showers mainly across the Great Lake overnight. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in continued dry weather. As winds continue to decrease somewhat, temperatures will drop into the low 40s and possibly upper 30s in some areas through the early morning hours. Amplified flow pattern with 500 MB trof hanging back across the area Wednesday. Temperatures to remain below normal with lows in the lower and middle 40s.
This is mainly in response to an upper level trough approaching from the west and mixing out the stubborn coastal inversion that has trapped the clouds and fog over the last few days. Mainly sunny again across the interior zones but temperatures will be moderating Wednesday as the upper trough digs off the Pacific NW coast and ushers in cooler air. The latest models continue to indicate a ridge over the West Coast over the weekend with the potential of an omega block pattern. An approaching trough has been lifting the marine inversion allowing low level moist air to expand vertically (higher ceilings) and horizontally (deeper into the river valleys).
203 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather through tonight with dry and warm conditions. Only a few clouds expected as a weak disturbance moves along the periphery of the ridge today. The high temperature at Livingston today should come very close to the record high of 89 degrees set in 2010. Flow aloft will back to the southwest by tonight due to an approaching trough from the west.
High temperatures will be around five degrees cooler than normal for this time of the year.
216 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures stick around through midweek before a warming trend commences going into the weekend. Surface analysis early this morning depicts high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the low to middle 60s today, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than where we should be for late September. Overnight lows look to dip down into the upper 30s to low 40s as the center of the high positions itself over parts of northern Illinois.
1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Upper level ridging encompasses much of the western CONUS as upper level high pressure is currently situated across the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper level low pressure trough is currently located across eastern Alberta. Additionally, an upper level closed low pressure system is located in northern Quebec accompanied with an upper level trough extending south into the South Atlantic states. South of this trough, Hurricane Ian is located north of far western tip of Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is extending from northern Ontario into Upper Midwest and portions of the High Plains.
Modestly strengthening sfc ridging from s cntrl CN swd into the MO Valley coupled with deepening lee trof are combining to support steady east to southeast flow across the area this aftn. Resulting tightening pressure/height gradient should support the development of a southerly LLJ over the High Plains late this evening into tonight. HREF is particularly bullish on this potential tomorrow night, with mean gusts exceeding 45 mph from the Pine Ridge ewd into s cntrl SD beginning around 03z.
Gusty southwest winds (20-30 mph) are being observed ahead of the front, and compressional warming may allow afternoon HIs to run a few degrees warmer (mid-90s) than away from this feature (upper-80s). Lows are expected to run from the low-50s behind the front across northwest Oklahoma to upper-50s ahead across west north Texas into central Oklahoma.
As of this afternoon, a potent upper trough is located across the Great Lakes region with northwesterly mid-level and upper level flow over the central plains. The region has felt more influence from the upper ridge over the Rockies today leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. However, a back door cold front tonight will help to knock temperatures back down to near normal for Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. The overall pattern is set to remain in place as the Great Lakes trough pauses its eastward motion to dig into the Mid-Atlantic region.
(Today and tonight) A weak and diffuse cold front is difficult to locate early this morning but appears to be near a Liberal, KS to Wheeler, TX line is expected to sharpen slightly and move to the south before stalling near a Hereford to Plainview to Guthrie line at mid-afternoon. Upper level high pressure centered pretty much over the forecast area should keep shower development at bay, although some hi-res models are developing some very small dots of QPF/reflectivity near the boundary late in the day. While that development is not out of the question, the upper ridge should win out and will keep precip chances below 10 percent.
As Hurricane Ian closes in on the west coast of the Florida peninsula this morning, north winds on the back side of Ian will usher in a much cooler and drier air mass into Alabama.
1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Dry low/mid-level air and the persistent presence of high pressure aloft will make for very little sensible change in conditions through Thu AM.
(Today through Thursday) A mid level ridge remains centered over the southern plains with lower level ridging remains centered off to our northeast. A few of the normally cooler low lying spots in the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may briefly fall into the upper 40s around sunrise.
(Today through Thursday) Another dry cold front has moved through the area, bringing continued CAA and drier air to the mid state today. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts to around 25 mph will mix the low levels well, and bring in drier air to the surface, but the cooler highs should keep min RH values around 30 percent or higher for the eastern half. Slightly warmer temps in the east and south will drive min RH values to around 20 to 25 percent, and marginal fire danger conditions will be in place.
Upper trough approaching the PacNW coast is spreading some high clouds into NorCal early this morning, but overall skies remain clear.
(Today and tonight) Winds will increase across the area today as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the area and Hurricane Ian to our southeast.
Otherwise, clear skies and the cold air advection should allow for morning low temperatures to range in the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-10, upper 50s to near 60 further south. 08/DML (This evening through Thursday night) A large upper level trough is located from the northeast down into Gulf coast with a surface cold front located well off into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is also helping to steer Major Hurricane Ian away from our part of the Gulf and toward Florida.
High pressure will continue over the region through Wednesday bringing mostly sunny skies, warm days/cool nights, and dry conditions. Only weather concern during this time frame will be the lower relative humidity values and any gusty winds which will be responsible for increasing the marginal fire weather threat.
150 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work week. Meanwhile the upper level trof over the east 1/2 of the nation will lose its influence as heights build over the middle of the country.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a few notable features including a longwave trough axis over the eastern-third of the US, a broad ridge over the western US, and Hurricane Ian approaching the Florida peninsula. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the upper 70s and are expected to top out in the lower 80s. This will in turn lead to low temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s over the next few days. By Thursday, weak mid-level ridging builds in from the west and returns low-level flow back from the south. This will usher in slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the work week. The upper- level ridge begins to break down by the end of the weekend as a trough axis exits from the PNW and into the central Plains.
Broken record forecast continues today with scattered convection associated with the deep ern CONUS trough that has been over the region the past couple days. The mentioned trough will finally exit NE over the course of the day with mainly dry conditions by evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
341 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Warmer with breezy conditions highlight the short term forecast today. Aloft a weak quasi-zonal flow was situated over western and central ND with an upper low tracking across the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces and an upper low situated over the eastern Pacific and downstream ridging over the northern Rockies. The aforementioned upper low and downstream ridging in the short term discussion begin to influence our weather by Thursday. First, the upper ridge moves over the Mondak area Thursday bringing temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for late September over western North Dakota. Ensemble clusters remain in general agreement on the overall timeframe and location of this happening, but there are differences in how deep the closed low becomes and where it ends up tracking through the central CONUS.
216 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure over the Desert Southwest has a ridge running north out of it through Wyoming and central Montana and up into central Alberta. Farther west a large trough sets over the coast of British Columbia running south where in comes to a curl over the Oregon Coast. This trough has a split flow ridge that lays north of it over the Yukon Territory and Alaska. Today through Thursday: Ridge will move across the region generating warm and dry conditions with light winds. Meanwhile the trough will move inland and form a closed low over northern Idaho with the ridge continuing to ride the top of the low.
Expect similar conditions today as yesterday as high pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern. An upper level trough remains across the northeast which continues to filter in cool and dry air from the northwest.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place today. A backdoor cold front will slide into the region early Thursday morning as a result of the large-scale flow induced by Hurricane Ian.
Water vapor satellite imagery/500mb heights had a few noteworthy feature; locally, we are under northwest flow aloft with a broad trough to the east. Frost/Freeze Headlines this Morning and Potential for Thursday Morning: The mid-tropospheric trough to the east departs the area with ridging building in for today.
(Wednesday through Thursday) An upper ridge centered over Eastern New Mexico/West Texas will continue to dominate our weather today but will weaken slightly on Thursday. Farther east, northeasterly winds will be stronger, as will the cool air advection, which should keep daytime highs in the lower 80s in South Central Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana. These factors will delivering a reinforcing surge of cooler air into the region.
Discussion: Upper level troughing will remain over the Eastern United States for the short term period.
The ridge will weaken on Thursday as an upper-low moves through the Pacific Northwest. Onshore winds and drying conditions are anticipated for Thursday through the weekend, allowing for cooler temperatures.
- Pleasant weather continues through the weekend with highs near seasonal normals, lows a bit cooler than normal, and dry conditions continuing. A stout closed area of high pressure will descend out of Canada into the Upper Midwest tonight and bring an infusion of cooler air southward into the region. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to range from the mid 60s to the low 70s under clear skies. Another chilly night is expected tomorrow night with temperatures in the low 40s possible even across the KC metro thanks to very efficient radiational cooling. A warming trend begins on Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer as the cold air mass associated with the aforementioned high slides off toward the Northeastern US.
Even if elevating heating on the higher terrain to the west helps initiate convection, this activity should due off before reaching western Kansas this evening. Temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s and then fall into the lower 50s tonight.
The highest risk for flash flooding will over the northern half of Mohave County into eastern Lincoln County as well as in the Spring and Sheep Range as this is where models show the most convection this afternoon. On Thursday, an incoming upper level trough will be moving through the Pacific northwest into the Rockies which will shove monsoonal moisture east.
It may also end up feeling a touch more pleasant with slightly cooler overnight lows and dewpoints in the upper 60s.
135 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge extending through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with upper low a bit offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, a rather tight pressure gradient is in place between the ridge over the Upper Midwest and the lee trof extending through central MT/WY. Clear skies overhead early this morning with some gusty south/southeast winds, especially along the Pine Ridge, due to a low level jet. Very warm temperatures are expected the next couple days with thermal ridge moving overhead. Gusty southerly winds today on the plains of western SD will shift more into central SD on Thursday as lee trof advances eastward towards the western Dakotas.
1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain in control of the weather at the surface, as a ridge persists to the west.
Wednesday will be a bit chillier as high pressure to our north will allow for surface northeasterly winds and advection of cooler air. Cool high temperatures in the low 70s are expected Thursday.
The worst conditions should be found to the south of the slow-moving front in parts of east central and southeast Oklahoma, where afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 should push minimum humidities into the low 20 percents.
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 With very dry air and winds becoming light, tonight will be as cool and maybe a degree or 2 cooler than last night for some spots. The forecast has been updated to drop the lows slightly for tonight and lower RH values, especially the next couple of afternoons when dry air and gusty winds will create fire wx concerns.
/Issued 1207 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/ /Through Thursday/ Subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place today. A backdoor cold front will slide into the region early Thursday morning as a result of the large-scale flow induced by Hurricane Ian.
145 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead to scattered showers mainly across the Great Lake overnight. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in continued dry weather. As winds continue to decrease somewhat, temperatures will drop into the low 40s and possibly upper 30s in some areas through the early morning hours. Amplified flow pattern with 500 MB trof hanging back across the area Wednesday. Temperatures to remain below normal with lows in the lower and middle 40s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over the region again today, as one trough swings across the NE US another one arrives on the NW coast. This 2nd trough will flatten the ridge as it moves inland Thursday.
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A cold front is currently pushing south through the Rio Grande Valley with ongoing convection along and immediately behind the front. High pressure builds in tonight leading to much cooler weather tonight with the return of widespread middle to upper 60s! Ample sunshine Wednesday pushes daytime highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. An even cooler night awaits us Wednesday night with lower to middle 60s expected, perhaps a few pockets of upper 50s in the traditionally cooler spots in the Brooks/Kenedy Ranches.
Departing high pressure which is responsible for the frost and freeze headlines this morning will exit to the southeast with southeast winds and return flow steadily increasing today. Minnesota lakes and forests will see less wind and cooler temps limiting the fire weather concerns to the valley. Those southerly winds persist into the overnight and Thursday as 500mb ridging lifts into the northern plains. This mixing and warm air advection will help temps stay in the 40s overnight with highs on Thursday in the low 70s for the valley and west and upper 60s for MN lakes and forests.
(Now through Thursday) Through the Near Term, gradually increasing north to northeasterly winds over the area will continue usher in a drier and cooler airmass. Highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area (around 80 at the beaches), and lows on Wednesday night will be in the lower 50s north of Highway 84, mid 50s southward to around the I-10 corridor, and upper 50 to around 60 at the coast.
The projected low temperatures in those locations are below freezing supporting the headline issuance. The showers have been decreasing and that trend will continue as the low level convergence weakens and shifts south of the CWA. IR loop shows abundant cloud cover over the Lower Peninsula moving south. We'll likely see MVFR cigs through much of the morning before drier air advects in from the west via high pressure and cigs improve to VFR.
332 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Issued 332 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022) Today through Thursday: The lakeshore areas will see more clouds today than inland areas due to lingering moisture from the low that is very slow to exit. Brisk northerly winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure moves in. Temperatures are expected to be similar or a little cooler than yesterday, despite sunshine, thanks to the weak cold air advection we had overnight. As skies clear and winds become calm with high pressure overhead tonight, look for temperatures to drop quickly for inland areas.
With high pressure overhead, clear skies, and a dry airmass in place, we've seen ideal radiational cooling conditions. Today, we'll see the trough from the Great Lakes into New England fill in and lift off the east. At the surface, we'll more or less maintain high pressure to our east and low pressure to our west.
(Rest of Today) Another cool start to the day as temperatures dropped to the lower 40s and even upper 30s in some areas. Temperatures will remain below normal today as high pressure remains over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping northerly flow over our area.
616 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Wednesday through Thursday) An upper ridge centered over Eastern New Mexico/West Texas will continue to dominate our weather today but will weaken slightly on Thursday. Farther east, northeasterly winds will be stronger, as will the cool air advection, which should keep daytime highs in the lower 80s in South Central Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana. These factors will delivering a reinforcing surge of cooler air into the region.
625 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak and diffuse cold front is difficult to locate early this morning but appears to be near a Liberal, KS to Wheeler, TX line is expected to sharpen slightly and move to the south before stalling near a Hereford to Plainview to Guthrie line at mid-afternoon. Upper level high pressure centered pretty much over the forecast area should keep shower development at bay, although some hi-res models are developing some very small dots of QPF/reflectivity near the boundary late in the day. While that development is not out of the question, the upper ridge should win out and will keep precip chances below 10 percent.
600 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
536 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures stick around through midweek before a warming trend commences going into the weekend. Surface analysis early this morning depicts high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the low to middle 60s today, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than where we should be for late September. Overnight lows look to dip down into the upper 30s to low 40s as the center of the high positions itself over parts of northern Illinois.