Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south and a weak upper wave passes to the north. winds will pick up some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CO AND STABLE CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER SUNSET. H7 TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND MINUS 15 AND CLIMB A BIT BY THU MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
918 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MILD AIR LINGERING AND MIXING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUR LOOKS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL HOLD ON INTO THURS NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS AND THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEST ENERGY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHSN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND IN THE LAURELS.
246 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND REACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS COOL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SALT LAKE BASIN. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH - SOMEWHERE FROM 17:1 TO 20:1 ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO.
430 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY.
16 BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. BUT HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ADVANCING HIGH SHOULD KILL THINGS OFF AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD ON SATURDAY. THE 1030MB HIGH IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. AS OF 9PM LAS VEGAS WAS 16 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS OF COURSE IS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE FUNNELING DOWN THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ERN MT INTO ERN WY AND NCTRL CO. A FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CANADA INTO UPPER NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOLLOWING THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING A WARM THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH A MOISTURE STARVED NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 14/06Z WITH GENERALLY NWLY SFC WINDS OF 5-10KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT. A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST 12Z SUN WHICH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MON. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SPLITS INTO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE TX/NM BORDER AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS PUSHES UP A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT IWD. EXPECT GALES TODAY AS COLD AIR SURGES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL E AND A RIDGE W. THE RIDGE MOVES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE WINDS BELOW 25 KTS. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE ROCKIES.
Despite the dry air in the low-levels, anticipate enough cloud cover tonight to limit radiational cooling and keep the overnight low temperatures at or above 40 degrees for most of our area.
WIND CHILLS WILL SUB FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
WITH TEMPS BEING 1 TO 4F WARMER THAN TODAYS MAX TEMPS.
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH WET WEATHER A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD BE AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY THIS EVENING. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP INTO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT US COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY HAS MOVED RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED PLEASANT FALL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST AND APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LOW STACKED UNDER THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON ANOTHER INTENSE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. PRIOR TO THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY 12Z WED AND OVER FAR EASTERN KS BY WED EVENING.
1101 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015 STRONG W/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON.
CONCURRENTLY A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AMPLIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES WITH A JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MT WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER RIDGE INTO EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST ND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. MODELS IN SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. THEREBY HELPING TO USHER COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE MID TN VALLEY. TEMP TRENDS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION.
UPPER CLOSED LOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WEAK TROUGH FROM GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITHE A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA. SATURDAY MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WARMER IN THE LOW 60S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH TROUGH BACK INTO WY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PICKING UP OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL BE A WARMING TRENDS WITH THE USUAL WARMER AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.
STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT WINDS WILL LAY DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS AND/OR FROST. /ISSUED 402 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRIFTING EAST. AND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DRY/COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST. THE COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT WESTERN ZONES NOT DECOUPLING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY DOMINATE AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE WINDS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT HIT FREEZING TEMPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
357 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY JUST TO OUR WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THE FREEZING TEMPS MAY BE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OR NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 14Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MASSIVE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AND DIG SE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED WAA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE PERIOD.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH WINDS IN EASTERN GLACIER AND TOOLE COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING A BROAD, FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GIVEN SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXPANDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE EASTERN GLACIER AND TOOLE COUNTIES.
331 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A QUIET MORNING IS UPON US AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. I DONT HAVE ANY TEMPERATURES REACHING FREEZING TONIGHT SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE WARNINGS/PRODUCTS. THINK THAT WE WILL GET JUST SHY OF THE FREEZING MARK. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON SATURDAY.
112 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THIS MORNING, BUT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTH FL.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA UNTIL IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY.
High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through the day today and tonight. High pressure will remain in place to start the weekend though it will start to slide to the east in response to a vigorous upper level system that will approach the west coast. This will allow for a nice start to the weekend as highs climb into the lower 60s.
Fair weather high pressure was building into the nation's midsection this afternoon, which will keep the airmass dry for several days to come. Temperatures will respond tonight by falling into the low to mid 30s. Saturday will be even warmer with winds shifting to the southwest.
WITH STEADY WINDS OVERNIGHT OPTED TO STAY TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. QUIET AND SEEMINGLY COOL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE TO BECOME MORE FLAT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALOFT.
FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRIFTING EAST. AND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DRY/COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST. THE COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.
358 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS WE WORK THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM OUT AND BRING IN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SO WE WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS 0F 10-15 MPH UNTIL THAT RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S THOUGH BECAUSE THE CLEARING SKIES PAIRED WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND THE LENGTH OF DARKNESS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT EFFICIENTLY.
331 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 ITS BEEN A CLEAR & CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE READINGS HAD SETTLED TO AROUND 30F IN MOST AREAS AT 2 AM. TODAY-SAT NIGHT: THERE'LL BE A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS AS A MODERATE ZONAL MID- UPPER REGIME SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TOWARD A SWLY VARIANT ON SAT AS A MID-UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW SAT EVENING. WITH THE LOWER-DECK TROFFING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GREATLY INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT WITH STRATUS SPREADING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS LATE SAT NIGHT.
TRIMMED THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN IN AREA TO ACCOMMODATE THE LOWER WINDS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BROADEN AND BECOME MILDLY ANTICYCLONIC AS AN H500 RIDGE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLAR BOUND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PIVOTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS ARE RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES (SEE 00Z RAOB ANALYSES) IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
THE GWINNER AND OAKES AREA HAS SEEN THE HIGHEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE TRANQUIL AS HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
HAVE TRENDED TODAYS HIGHS TOWARD A LOWER/COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION. MOISTENING AND WARMING SOUTHERLIES RETURN FOR THE NEW WORK-WEEK AS COOL LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE FL THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY PROVIDING A COOLER AND DRIER NNW FLOW.
High pressure will then build over the region through the weekend.
342 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TODAY. THOUGH AM STILL ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND IF MIXING IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING ALOFT.
255 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
1217 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. PREV DISCUSSION-> UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IF ANYTHING TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE.
336 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 High pressure will continue to slide toward the area today, but pressure gradient remains tight with deep low pressure area still in southeastern Canada this morning. High pressure and clear skies setting up for efficient cooling tonight and temps bottom out in the upper 20s/near 30.
A BRISK NORTH WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST. /ISSUED 358 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FL AS OF MID AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CLOSER TO AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO BE SEEN THIS WEEKEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
327 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE SHORT TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
319 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 Cold start this morning with temperatures near or just below freezing across portions of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
/ISSUED 251 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW GA THIS AFTERNOON. W WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE (987 MB) WAS CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST AREA OF STRATUS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA BUT A STRONG VORT MAX WAS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH LINGERS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. GREAT LAKES TROUGH MAY KEEP STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING AND IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
Mixing should tap into winds around 30-35 knots, which will yield gusts in the 20-25 knot range, the highest along and north of I-64. Surface ridging will slide into the region which will allow winds to slacken. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s.
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A SPLIT REGIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THE COOLEST AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
1128 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015 Deep low pressure centered north of the eastern Great Lakes continues to provide a substantial pressure gradient over central IL this evening resulting in west winds 10 to 20 mph which should countinue through the night.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the short term period dry and cooler. One of the more important issues in the short term will be temperatures at or below freezing Friday night and Saturday night.
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. SO THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE LOCATIONS NEAR FREEZING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH MAY JUSTIFY A STATEMENT ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS SURPASSED CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE AS WELL.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOPS OFF OF THE WESTERN US COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN US.
1259 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
/issued 238 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ Surface ridging centered over Texas today under zonal flow aloft, resulting in a beautiful Fall day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico with light winds and clear skies in place.
330 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL SWING DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THIS LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE WEATHER OR EVEN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS JKL. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM CANADA.
AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
This will lead to warmer temperatures today, especially across central into southeast MO. Went closer to the warmer GFS MOS guidance versus the cooler NAM numbers for highs today. Even though the low level cloudiness will clear out later today, there will be some mid-high level cloudiness advecting southeastward into much of the forecast area late this morning and afternoon.
South to southwest winds will make a return by this afternoon as surface ridging shifts eastward into the Mississippi Valley.
1210 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CWA SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND W/LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND THE EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR, CALM AND VERY COLD NIGHT WHILE THE DOWNEAST AREA HAS A BIT OF A BREEZE FROM AN ATLANTIC STORM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
Gusty south winds expected to pick up mid to late morning and continue into the afternoon, as a lee trough develops. As the anticyclone slides east overnight, winds will spin around the dial, becoming southerly by sunrise.
THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER WESTERN MONTANA.