Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mild and dry conditions are expected across the region during the next 7 days as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Just very subtle changes have been made to the forecast, as models continue to show an upper ridge over the Pacific remaining quasi-stationary through the next 7 days. Northwest California will generally reside beneath northwest flow aloft along the east side of the ridge. In addition, large- scale subsidence forced by the ridge combined with a residually humid boundary layer will aid in patchy valley fog.
Deeper boundary layer mixing may be able to produce westerly wind gusts near 20 knots as well, diminishing early in the evening, along with the low clouds (3-5 kft).
450 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 The latest cold front is moving through the coastal waters of southern Louisiana headed deeper into the gulf.
High pressure over the plain states is expected to build east across Indiana and the Ohio Valley today before passing to into the deep south on Saturday.
After a very cold morning, high pressure currently centered over IA will shift sewd to the Middle MS River Valley.
517 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure has settled in over Missouri with clear skies, lighter winds, and a cold airmass dropping low temperatures down into the single digits north of the MO River.
912 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 KBYX detects isolated showers over the Lower Keys, as well as over nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys. A trough of low pressure will progress southward down the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
522 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 A ridge of high pressure has settled across the Upper Midwest overnight and allowed skies to remain clear. This is the beginning of warmer air that will provide light snow or flurries to eastern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin late this afternoon, and into the evening. The steady snow will remain north of the warm front, draped across southern MN. It looks dry and cold here with the trough in place.
High pressure northeast of Florida will keep light east to southeast flow in place today, turning onshore this afternoon with a sea breeze. A dry cold front will move southeast into the coastal waters late Friday.
523 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 12Z TAFS The cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning has moved offshore with only scattered light showers still impacting LFT and ARA. /issued 450 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018/ The latest cold front is moving through the coastal waters of southern Louisiana headed deeper into the gulf.
This morning a mid/upper level longwave trough was progressing eastward over the northeast CONUS. On the backside of the high pressure return flow has already become established across central KS and is expected to spread into portions of eastern KS by this afternoon. As a result high temperatures today should be at least 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Multiple HRRR and RAP runs are consistently forecasting the lowest relative humidity around 20 percent, which occurs in the Flint Hills. An increase in the lower tropospheric pressure gradient this evening results in wind speeds remaining fairly constant through the night. The warmer temperatures will be short lived as a cold front is forecast to move southeast across north central and northeast Kansas starting Saturday afternoon and evening then exiting east central Kansas late Saturday night.
537 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Southerly winds over western Nebraska pushing a warm frontal boundary to the northeast with an associated stratus field. Nebraska lies primarily in northwest flow aloft the next several days as a ridge builds off the Pacific coast and a low remains anchored over the Hudson Bay.
with a mix of 30s and 40s for the higher mountains. Where lee troffing brings westerly winds down into portions of the I-25 corridor could see some readings around 60. Have leaned heavily towards high res models (hrrr and 3km Nam) for location of the westerlies vs the easterly winds today across the lower elevations and kept temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance where winds stay easterly. Looking at the potential for a couple inches across the higher Sawatch and Mosquito ranges tonight with additional snowfall expected into Saturday.
Despite the return to southerly winds, highs today will remain about the same or slightly warmer than yesterday since the cold air is just being re-circulated across our area.
Fair skies over the CWA this morning as high pressure aloft continues to build over the eastern Pacific.
An upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley will rotate east through New England and the Mid Atlantic tonight. At the surface, weak ridging across the Florida Peninsula will shift east as a cold front associated with the upper level trough pushes into northern Florida this afternoon and clears the Florida Peninsula tonight. As high pressure fills in behind the front, winds will quickly turn around to easterly across the Florida Peninsula, limiting the cold air push into Saturday.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a somewhat moist northwest flow across the Great Basin the next several days.
510 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Quiet weather is expected in the short term, as an axis of high pressure drifts eastward across Illinois later today. Some of the high-res models hint at some very light precipitation this evening across the northern CWA. Forecast soundings remain fairly dry in the lower levels though, so will only mention a chance of flurries at this point.
the area is seeing a cold front push SE thru the area. An upper level trough is accompanying the surface feature as it transitions eastward into the Plains. Some shower activity is showing up along the trough in portions of Colorado. the passage of the front/trough combo will bring in some strong WNW winds. the downslope winds will still afford the region daytime highs into the lower to mid 60s. The region will see overnight lows drop into a range from the upper 20s west into the lower 30s east. These freezing/sub- freezing temps have prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for all KS/NE zones. The region warms up for Sunday as upper level H5/H7 ridging gives the region a dry/warm day with highs in the 70s.
417 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large trough approaching the Rockies, with upper ridging just off the southeast coast of the US. At the sfc, high pres remains centered over the mid-Atlantic states, ridging southwest toward the northern Gulf coast. East to southeast flow around the ridge was continues to bring Gulf moisture into the region. Moist onshore flow and modest lift in advance of the trough will allow for sctd convection to develop during the day Saturday. The trough will continue eastward tonight, ushering a sfc cold front toward the region.
0 C/km) via strengthening southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone in western KS. Expect highs this afternoon in the lower 80s and lows tonight ranging from the lower/mid 40s in eastern CO (where the cold fropa will occur prior to 12Z) to the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far east where southerly flow will persist all night. Saturday: Expect sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to ~45 mph for several hours in the wake of the cold front (fropa between 12-15Z from N/NW to S/SE) in association with 6-7 mb/3-hr pressure rises with cold advection Saturday morning, strongest in southwest NE, northeast CO, and extreme northwest KS. Expect afternoon temperatures 15-20F cooler than previous days, ranging from the upper 50s in eastern CO to mid 60s far S/SE.
Winds will decrease into Saturday, except across the lower Colorado River Valley. Near-normal temperatures will make a brief return this weekend, before a strong area of high pressure builds over the Western U. By tomorrow, winds should generally weaken area-wide, except near the lower Colorado River Valley, where north winds of 15-25 mph will remain possible.
Maybe not quite as warm as the MAV /which is forecasting 82 for BNA/ but I am sure a few backyard thermometers will reach into the lower 80s. The NAM is still trying to slow the approaching cold front. Expect Sunday to be another nice day with increasing clouds west to east and highs in the lower 70s along the plateau to around 81 in Nashville.
210 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered over the Eastern USA will move offshore this weekend, bringing warm, dry weather to our region.
A strong upper trough over the northern and central Rockies will push into the plains this evening. An isolated elevated thunderstorm is possible mainly south central this afternoon, with the main chance of showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight near the 850 mb trough axis. The far west areas, west of Madison is in a marginal risk of severe, mainly for the evening thunderstorms, which would have a wind risk due to the strong low/mid level winds ahead of the trough, and a weakening of the cap. The surface cold front should enter the far west around sunrise Sunday. The first push of colder air arrives Sunday behind a surface cold front that moves through midday. During the evening the upper trough swings through and upper divergence slides east of the region.
As lee troughing deepens, the pressure gradient is tightening. The cold front will begin to make its eastward move during the overnight hours as the upper level trough approaches from the west.
This will keep some wind tonight and provide lows several degrees warmer than last night. Temperatures too may see slight dependence on sun, but advection should mainly drive highs into the mid 70s given 850/925 mb temperatures near/just a tad cooler than today. Despite this variability, a cooler pattern with periods of wet weather still looking to be the more favored patter through mid week as much of the CONUS will see a large upper level trough/low in place.
A cold front will move across the area on Sunday and the best which will be dependent on frontal timing. then temps are likely to be warmer and could be in the lower 70s over the eastern cwa. Main forecast concerns are two cold fronts and associated cold bursts/precip.
model solutions depict a broad and deep high pressure dominating the region, while the remnants of a dissipating stationary front linger near the Florida Keys and Cuba.
435 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Few overall significant changes were made as a sharp upper level trough was digging on schedule through the Rockies, with a portion of energy heading into the southern plains by later today. Otherwise, looking for the continental cold front to sweep southward also on-schedule late afternoon into northern zones and early evening southern - with only modest surface pressure rises. A clear and crisp Sunday morning will follow but Sunday overall still looks stellar - with trends slightly warmer than previous.
313 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will continue to influence the weather across the Upper Ohio Valley through Sunday.
639 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will continue to influence the weather across the Upper Ohio Valley through Sunday.
Of much more significance is the cold front that is forecast to move through Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and into the night.
Upper trof over Montana with cold front into the Dakotas. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday limiting the fire weather concerns. Slight ridge develops tonight as the upper trof exits the state. Winds will be diminishing as clearing skies allow for airmass to decouple and the ridging weakens the winds aloft. Some indication that ridge tops across the remainder of Phillips county, along with Valley and Garfield counties, could see gusts to 55 or 60 mph, so watch may need to be expanded. Clipper system dives toward the Great Lakes early in the week, with upper trof digging over the northern Plains.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Eastern U. and a trough is moving into the Central U.
348 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty westerly winds over the next 12-14 hours along with cooler daytime highs. Currently, upper level trough extends from the southern Rockies northward over the Northern High Plains region with south- southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas. Cold front over central ND ahead of the trough continues to move eastward. For today, winds remain breezy across the local region, especially the higher terrain of the southwest where BUFKIT analysis continues to suggest 35-40KT winds within the mixed layer. Much cooler today behind this morning's front with highs mainly in the 50s.
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Strong high pressure will shift offshore this weekend.
A strong cold front will quickly move through the region around 23Z to 01Z this evening shifting breezy winds to the north. /issued 327 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ Mid-level subsidence was firmly in control of the region this afternoon following a compact upper low currently crossing the Wichita Mountains. This trough should assume a weak dryline structure by peak heating just east of the Caprock. Although surface convergence is shown to be rather lackluster, modest height falls with the approaching upper trough could breed a few storms by early afternoon off the Caprock. This ascent will only improve once a cold front dives south from the Panhandle by late afternoon and bolsters convergence within the moist sector. Following Saturday's trough, a protracted period of uneventful NW flow will dominate much of the Great Plains through the upcoming week.
Precipitation-wise, isolated showers are anticipated today and tonight over the Lower Texas coastal waters as a deep 500 mb trough gradually moves into the Lone Star State. Isolated to scattered convection is then possible for the entire BRO CWFA on Sunday as a cold front sweeps through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from northwest to southeast.
A mid and upper level trough over the Four Corners region moves across the Rockies today to the High Plains this evening. A streamer shower band may set up along the Highway 77 corridor and have slight chance POPs there today. The mid and upper level trough moves out across the Central/Southern Plains tonight and Sunday. As the trough moves further out into the Plains, a cold front surges across our area late tonight into Sunday morning.
400 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Clouds thin today as high pressure moves over the region.
Tonight will feature more dry conditions but with better mixing in advance of the next weather system, lows will be 3-5 degrees warmer /55 to 60/ across the region. This will allow for warmer and breezier conditions to develop. Some of the warmer spots that see more sunshine could hit 80 degrees.
126 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with highs clouds streaming in ahead of the next approaching upper level trough.
Then high pressure will strengthen over the Great Basin to bring dry conditions with a warming trend.
Windy conditions look to persist through late Sunday with cooler temperatures expected. Surface cold front that swept through the region earlier this evening has moved into Eastern Montana.
Latest mesoanalysis shows a surface cold front located roughly near Wray to Ogallala to near Valentine.
/issued 130 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ Upper trough extending from NW US down to Mexico today with a ridge over the SE. This trough will swing across the Rockies overnight and move onto the plains Saturday. By early Sunday this trough will have crossed the region with high pressure building in from the west.
317 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Mild conditions will continue this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s today and the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Clouds will gradually be on the increase, with showers possible into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight into Sunday as a cold front nears.
637 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Mild conditions will continue this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s today and the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Clouds will gradually be on the increase, with showers possible into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight into Sunday as a cold front nears.
High pressure at both the surface and aloft will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the east today. After a lull in activity this evening, rain chances will yet again be on the increase from west to east towards day break Sunday, as the aforementioned cold front begins to impede upon far western portions of the CWA.
438 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Another mild day for the Midsouth today, accompanied by increased humidity and wind speeds, ahead of an approaching upper level trof. The upper trof will make only slow eastward progress today, before additional energy arrives from the central Rockies tonight. This additional energy will drop into the base of the trof and become cut-off from the northern branch segment over the upper Midwest Sunday afternoon.
By daybreak, most snowfall will likely end though a few showers will remain possible over the higher terrain so are included in forecast. How much snow did we get? Local webcams are indicating anywhere from 2 to 4 inches for the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains so am sure a few spots got closer to 6 inches. High temperatures will be much cooler than seen yesterday but still about where they should be for this time of year.
These clouds are moving in ahead of a cold front and developing low pressure system along the leeside of the Rocky Mountains. For today, the high pressure system that has brought us the mild and dry weather will slide off to the east off the SC coastline.
Attention turns westward by mid-morning as cold front edges into northwest corner of the forecast area. Progressive nature of upper level H5 trough will allow front to make haste across the forecast area, and expect front and convection to be along or east of Missouri River by 21UTC. This will allow winds to back to the west- southwest on Sunday, providing some downslope warming, effectively mitigating cooler airmass in wake of front.
Further west the upper trough was progressing across the Rockies with 50 to 55 kt mid level jet rounding the base of the trough. For today, the main concern will be severe weather potential with the approach of the upper trough and attendant cold front. Dew points in the lower 60s are expected ahead of the front along with good moisture transport across northeast Kansas in the afternoon and evening hours. A couple deeper troughs dig into the northern Rockies/Plains and make their way into the Central Plains as well.
Deep layer ridging will maintain rain-free conditions over the area through tonight. By Sunday, the flow will become southerly as a deep trough and cold front approach from the west.
336 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 An area of low pressure was located over south central Canada at 07Z. A cold front extended south from the low through the central Dakotas, while a quasi-stationary front was north of the Minnesota/Canada border. A stiff southerly flow of air/moisture was working its way into the area ahead of the low on a strong low level jet. The cold front begins to move into the western third of the forecast area by 00Z, and reaches the far eastern edge of the region by 12Z Sunday. The front pushes out of the region Sunday morning accompanied by a sharp upper level trof. Some rain will linger from the Arrowhead into the Hayward Lakes area and points east in the morning due to their proximity to the departing front and the upper trof.
Main high pressure ridge is weakening and loosing its grip on the southeastern U.
This will help temps remain a bit warmer with lows only in the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Further west over central/northeast MO will see activity associated with main cold front approach, so kept low pops there by the afternoon hours. Byrd Period begins with amplified flow as a deep trof approaches the region and upper ridge struggles to remain in place over the SE U. Models continue to struggle with the approaching trof, but are in fairly good agreement thru Sun morning. Cooler temps move in with this cdfnt, with even cooler temps expected on Tues as a secondary fnt pushes south of the area. Models now push the thermal ridge back into the area with swly flow on Wed and continuing into Thurs.
338 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A tightening pressure gradient between a high anchored along the East Coast and a cold front in the Plains will produce strong S/SW winds across central Illinois today. The Plains cold front will slowly push eastward tonight, triggering showers and thunderstorms overnight.
410 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 An upper level trough moving across the eastern half of Colorado is bringing active weather at this time. Lift from the trough will bring a few showers to the Front Range through 6 AM. Behind the exiting trough northwest flow will bring subsident and drier air. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado. The downslope winds will keep temperatures warmer with lows in the 30s.
434 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today and Sunday.
High pressure centered over Virginia will remain the predominate feature for the region once again today and tonight. Really the only weather we will see will be an increase in clouds as southerly flow begins to increase over the area, once the high pressure system begins to push further east.
129 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading into and through the weekend.
Cooler temperatures today and tonight followed by a another possibly colder night Sunday.
315 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Upper trough is crossing the central to northern Rockies into the High Plains. Surface analysis shows the cold front now crossing south central SD approaching KICR. Upper trough will quickly push through the area today with the line of showers transitioning eastward into central SD by mid to late morning. Warmer temperatures will move back into the area with highs reaching into the 60s to mid 70s. Upper ridging over the region will weaken as a series of upper waves push into the northern Rockies and Plains. A cold front will cross the CWA Sunday night with a few showers possible. Strong ridging will then develop over the western half of the CONUS through the first half of the work week bringing another stretch of dry weather.
302 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure will shift offshore today allowing for another warming trend to commence. High pressure will hold off the coast through Sunday as a weak warm front holds steady across southern New England on Sunday.
Outside of the higher terrain of the southwest, we do not expect winds to last much longer than an hour or two so went with a special weather statement to cover this brief surge in winds associated with the pressure rise bubble west and central. Passage of the cold front, pressure rise, and shower mixing the winds. At 6 PM CDT a cold front extended across eastern Montana and will move into western North Dakota this evening. Tonight, an upper level trough begins an eastward progression across the Northern Plains. A strong associated cold front will move east ahead of the upper trough into western North Dakota tonight, then into central ND by 06Z Saturday.
329 AM PDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Everything appears on track with the warm front currently pushing eastwards. Eventually, the warm front will pass to the east, yet the the strong west to east flow will continue to impact Oregon. Into the work week, high pressure will build bringing back a rather quiet weather pattern. Generally VFR ceilings are present this evening ahead of a warm front. Precipitation will increase late tonight with an approaching warm front. Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR and occasional IFR and mountain obscuration is expected with the warm front. Freezing levels will rise Saturday morning behind the warm front.