Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise most places will remain dry with lows in the lower to middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Warmer and more humid weather is expected for the weekend. Scattered showers will continue near a leftover low level trough axis this afternoon into early this evening. Fog could develop across IN/OH in the vicinity of the leftover inverted trough where clearing occurs.
The coolest values in the lower 40s are expected across the southwest where skies are clear and dewpoints slightly lower compared to the remainder of the area. High pressure will continue to build across the Northern Plains tonight. Stratus will slowly decrease through the evening and early overnight, with more breaks in the cloud cover after sunset for the more diurnally driven components of the low level cloud decks per GOESEast trends. Will monitor cloud trends should overnight lows need to lowered (possibly into the lower to mid 40s) given the cool start to the evening. The CONSHORT guidance gave highs in the lower 70s east to upper 70s west and that looks reasonable.
1039 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Low pressure will move east to Pennsylvania tonight, allowing drier weather to arrive.
SPC surface analysis had a trough and low-level convergent axis draped across southern Wisconsin into central Minnesota. A 925mb WNW to ESE oriented trough axis will sag southward overnight, reaching the northern forecast area late. Increasing moisture at this level, in a band of convergence along the trough axis, will probably drag some low clouds into our area.
Wind profiles show some backing from the mid to the upper levels which indicates that an upper level high is still influencing the region. Two interesting things to note are the cooler surface temperatures and a weak temperature inversion around 950mb and region of higher humidity and cooler temperatures around 500mb.
-Mottice Weak high pressure from the southwest, combined with cooler post- frontal temperatures from the Canadian prairie to provide northeast Montana with very comfortable conditions for an August day.
/issued 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/ (Tonight through Wednesday) As of mid afternoon, a weak cold front was situated across the northern Big Country and extended southwest to near Midland. The aforementioned weak cold front should sag a little farther south late tonight and early Wednesday, possibly reaching the Concho Valley and Heartland counties during the morning hours. Also, temperatures will be a little cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 90s across the Big Country and 100 to 103 degrees across southern sections.
The dry air will also make a couple of evening feel much cooler, too.
The surface cold front was near a line from kcgi to Mt. Sfc dew points were still in the lower 70s across central Illinois. Dew points will fall into the mid 60s, providing relief from the high heat indices.
High pressure will continue to build across the Northern Plains tonight. Stratus will slowly decrease through the evening and early overnight, with more breaks in the cloud cover after sunset for the more diurnally driven components of the low level cloud decks per GOESEast trends. Will monitor cloud trends should overnight lows need to lowered (possibly into the lower to mid 40s) given the cool start to the evening. The CONSHORT guidance gave highs in the lower 70s east to upper 70s west and that looks reasonable.
543 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cooler temperatures and lower humidity the next day or so, followed by increasing rain chances to end the work week, are the main highlights of the forecast. A stronger push of drier air is forecast tonight as upper wave in the Northern Plains dives into the western Great Lakes and drags a cold front through much of our CWA. Associated convection should remain west of our area over western and central Nebraska, propagating south into instability axis in the High Plains. Return flow on back side of retreating high pressure will result in instability feeding into western Nebraska where afternoon convection is expected, with propagation to the south-southeast.
530 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A west-to-east oriented cold front that has been moving through the area today is rather difficult to discern via current surface observations. However, generally north of the baroclinic zone over nwrn SD, an autumn-like airmass is in place, with mostly cloudy skies contributing to afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. The combination of these factors should accordingly correspond to an increased threat for severe weather, primarily from far nern WY into wrn SD within the sfc theta-E ridge.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado. Clusters of thunderstorms are already in progress across the high plains.
A cold front resided near the Red River Valley this evening with a few isolated showers remaining along/near the boundary just south/west of Southeast Oklahoma. as the high clouds begin to break up and the drier dewpoints filter into the region.
Moisture and mid-level lapse rates with surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s will support ample instability in the afternoon into early evening.
1041 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine overnight.
744 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Low pressure will move east to Pennsylvania tonight, allowing drier weather to arrive.
The western edge of the Bermuda ridge will remain over the region through Wednesday.
Otherwise most places will remain dry with lows in the lower to middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Warmer and more humid weather is expected for the weekend. The exception may be far northwest CWA where lesser rainfall and trough of continued advection of upstream lower dewpoints to continue to advect in from west central Lower Michigan. Weak flow within stalled/weak inverted trough/pockets of clearing overnight/upper 60s to around 70F crossover temperatures also point to heightened br/fg potential. Scattered showers will continue near a leftover low level trough axis this afternoon into early this evening. Fog could develop across IN/OH in the vicinity of the leftover inverted trough where clearing occurs.
Do have our increasing rain chances coming tomorrow with the approach and eventual passage of a mid level trof along with a weak frontal passage as time progresses.
At the surface, the low is centered over West Virginia with a cold front stretching back to the west across Kentucky into west-middle Tennessee. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 90 71 90 / 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 69 87 / 60 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 73 87 69 87 / 40 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 65 85 / 30 30 10 10.
POPs are higher tonight along the Red River as a 700mb trough tracks across the area.
Cooler weather returns for the weekend. Today marks the start of the significant warming trend, as strengthening high pressure results in another round of heat. Models and ensemble guidance are continuing to trend warmer, thus an Excessive Heat Warning has been issue.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX/ Currently there is an upper level trough axis located over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. A broad area of high pressure over the southern US will shrink and position over New Mexico as this trough propagates east and deepens to the south going into tomorrow. A weak surface cold front moved over the FA last night leaving the area in primarily easterly upslope winds at the surface today.
By 14-15z, increased moisture and lift ahead and along a sfc/mid level trough approaching from the northeast will increase shower and thunderstorm chances. Do have our increasing rain chances coming tomorrow with the approach and eventual passage of a mid level trof along with a weak frontal passage as time progresses.
Surface ridging bridges the boundary on Wednesday with NE to E winds moving across the I-35 sites in the afternoon. Tomorrow, a weak (relatively) cold front will move south as the high pressure ridging shifts west. Increased cloudiness and the chance for showers will keep the northernmost counties a few degrees cooler.
The good news is this cluster should be the end of the tstm activity within the next couple of hrs, as a weak cold front from mid TN into NW MS begins to move thru the cntrl TN Valley later tonight. The other bit of good news of course is the passage of the cold front should bring some slightly cooler/drier air into the area, with lows early Wed falling mainly into the lower/mid 70s, although a few spots may lower into the upper 60s over portions of srn mid TN. Drier air finally arrives behind the front as high pressure filters southward from the Northern Plains.
748 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal pattern through the northern CONUS with troughing over eastern Canada. At the surface, a ridge extended from southern Saskatchewan through northern Ontario while a weak trough stretched from southern WI to eastern North Dakota. Wednesday, high pressure building into the area will bring enough sunshine with inland cu to boost temps into the lower 70s south. As an upper trough axis swings through tomorrow night, look for just the slightest of chances for some light showers to pop-up, currently looking to primarily stick to the Lake Superior shoreline, with perhaps some orographic assistance in the western U.
1130 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A west-to-east oriented cold front that has been moving through the area today is rather difficult to discern via current surface observations. However, generally north of the baroclinic zone over nwrn SD, an autumn-like airmass is in place, with mostly cloudy skies contributing to afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. The combination of these factors should accordingly correspond to an increased threat for severe weather, primarily from far nern WY into wrn SD within the sfc theta-E ridge.
341 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Today will be a bit cooler with highs in the 90s most locations. Northerly flow aloft will also develop today with an upper ridge centered over AZ/NM.
1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A sfc cold front has moved all the way through the region. Wednesday looks like a quiet weather day: Expect sunny and less humid with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
1132 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cooler temperatures and lower humidity the next day or so, followed by increasing rain chances to end the work week, are the main highlights of the forecast. A stronger push of drier air is forecast tonight as upper wave in the Northern Plains dives into the western Great Lakes and drags a cold front through much of our CWA. Associated convection should remain west of our area over western and central Nebraska, propagating south into instability axis in the High Plains. Return flow on back side of retreating high pressure will result in instability feeding into western Nebraska where afternoon convection is expected, with propagation to the south-southeast.
Otherwise the main concern is a slow moving cold front over N GA that is forecast to drift toward central GA during the short term period.
125 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal pattern through the northern CONUS with troughing over eastern Canada. At the surface, a ridge extended from southern Saskatchewan through northern Ontario while a weak trough stretched from southern WI to eastern North Dakota. Wednesday, high pressure building into the area will bring enough sunshine with inland cu to boost temps into the lower 70s south. As an upper trough axis swings through tomorrow night, look for just the slightest of chances for some light showers to pop-up, currently looking to primarily stick to the Lake Superior shoreline, with perhaps some orographic assistance in the western U.
Skies will clear off tonight as the high settles closer to the area. Look for overnight lows to range from the lower 60s in the eastern Ozarks, to the mid 60s in far southwest Missouri.
Otherwise, indistinct waves passing through the nearly flat ridge aloft will help generate additional convection over parts of the Plains over the next several days. or warmer than seasonal.
306 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 A trough of low pressure will bring several periods of unsettled weather to the region lasting into the weekend.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front across Central Alabama/Mississippi, then back through Northeast Texas.
Dry and stable conditions will persist into Wednesday as upper ridge briefly amplifies over the region.
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 A broad mid level trough will gradually dig into the eastern US through the rest of the week, setting up a weak ridge east of Florida. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to extend across the Florida Straits through the rest of the week, with southwesterly flow persisting. While August is typically the time of year with the highest atmospheric moisture, the air mass currently in place is incredibly moist, even by August standards. This moist air mass and southwesterly flow enhanced by the troughing aloft will favor showers and thunderstorms forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early each morning, then continuing to develop and shift onshore throughout the day with numerous thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
/issued 1015 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/ Current satellite and radar imagery shows a low pressure system over southeastern Ohio with the associated cold front stretching into southern Tennessee. We've finally started to see some relief in the heat with temperatures currently in the low 70s to low 80s. Dew points have started to fall as well as they sit in the low to mid 70s. After the front moves through, slightly cooler air will move in, but the biggest difference will be the humidity with dew points mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s expected across the CWA. High pressure will begin to build over the area tomorrow with quieter weather and more seasonable temperatures forecast. The ridge should continue to break down this afternoon and a cold front will approach from the North providing a better focus for lift.
Thunderstorms will be possible later today as a slowly building upper level ridge in the Intermountain West brings about a west- northwesterly flow aloft to the high plains of southeast Wyoming, southwest Nebraska, and northeast Colorado. Thunderstorms are expected to trigger in an axis of increased convergence associated with a lee side trough in eastern Colorado late this afternoon, then spread into portions of western Kansas this evening. As for temperatures, a slightly cooler air mass across the high plains will result in fairly seasonal temperatures today.
1015 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Current satellite and radar imagery shows a low pressure system over southeastern Ohio with the associated cold front stretching into southern Tennessee. We've finally started to see some relief in the heat with temperatures currently in the low 70s to low 80s. Dew points have started to fall as well as they sit in the low to mid 70s. After the front moves through, slightly cooler air will move in, but the biggest difference will be the humidity with dew points mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s expected across the CWA. High pressure will begin to build over the area tomorrow with quieter weather and more seasonable temperatures forecast. The ridge should continue to break down this afternoon and a cold front will approach from the North providing a better focus for lift.
Cooler temperatures are in store for the next few days along with off and on small chances for showers and storms.
Outflow enhanced cold front is pushing south through the Panhandles with gusty northeasterly winds in the wake of this feature.
High temperatures should climb into the low to middle 80s with afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. With high pressure building into the area, dry weather is expected.
1045 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Drier, warmer weather is expected though Wednesday.
259 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 As an expansive low continues to move out of the region and high pressure settles in, expect abundant sunshine across western and central North Dakota through the day. Afternoon highs will be warmer than yesterday, but still well below average for this time of year, generally in the 70s.
843 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Drier, warmer weather is expected though Wednesday.
A weak Low pressure system will traverse through northeast Illinois this afternoon. The front should slide through central Illinois towards the Ohio River Valley overnight, setting up another cooler night across the area.
For tonight, return flow sets up as the high pressure moves east.
246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 After a busy day yesterday with some of the highest heat indicies we have seen in years along with numerous severe thunderstorms and flash flooding, radar is much quieter this morning with just some widely scattered showers. After 12Z, cannot completely rule out an isolated shower on the Plateau this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is expected for the rest of this week thanks to a large upper trough over the eastern half of the US. This feature will also bring us slightly cooler temperatures for a few days along with lower dewpoints and RH, which many will feel quite thankful for after the upper 70s to around 80 dewpoints we saw yesterday.
Ascent tied to the upper trough along with a weakening corridor of MUCAPE and low-level convergence ahead of the upper trough has focused areas of showers/isolated thunder from east-central MN into central WI. Otherwise, a cooler airmass will advect south across the area with quite a bit of stratus persisting through much of the day before some clearing develops from the north late this afternoon/evening.
353 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the ridges, are possible today with weak low pressure over northern Virginia.
550 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the ridges, are possible today with weak low pressure over northern Virginia.
High pressure amplifies over Nevada today, leading to lower to mid 90s across the valleys.
High pressure will strengthen over Arizona today and Thursday with warming temperatures, rising to 5 to 10 degrees above normal today and Thursday. High pressure will build over Arizona today and Thursday with dry air over much of western Arizona. Temperatures will exceed 110 degrees in the lower deserts below 2500 feet. High pressure will remain strong over Arizona with continued hot daytime temperatures with chances of rainfall limited to far east-central Arizona (from Heber eastward).
Mid-level ridge axis will continue to gradually shift westward over the SW CONUS and will loosening its grip a bit over South Texas today. Can still expect hot and humid conditions to persist with highs a degree or two cooler today than yesterday. As the ridge axis shifts away from the area, a weak frontal boundary draped across northern Texas this morning is progged to gradually push southward into central Texas through the day. Otherwise, most locations will remain dry on Thursday with temps a few degrees cooler than previous days due to increased cloud cover across the region.
254 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Heat for inland areas will peak today and Thursday with high temperatures around 115 in the lower deserts and 100 to 105 in the inland valleys. Heat from high pressure centered over northwest Mexico will peak today and Thursday with high temperatures in the lower deserts around 115, 100 to 105 in the Inland Empire, and 98 to 104 in the far inland valleys in San Diego County near the foothills of the mountains. Areas west of the mountains may be a degree or two cooler on Thursday.
For tonight, return flow sets up as the high pressure moves east. A surface cold front will also be approaching from the northwest. When the period opens, a large broad upper level trof seems to be establishing itself over much of NOAM, including the northern tier CONUS states, with cooler than normal air remaining in place through the weekend.
High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather with a subtle increase in high temperatures today for most inland areas.
As an expansive low continues to move out of the region and high pressure settles in, expect abundant sunshine across western and central North Dakota through the day. Afternoon highs will be warmer than yesterday, but still well below average for this time of year, generally in the 70s.
Otherwise most places will remain dry with lows in the lower to middle 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Warmer and more humid weather is expected for the weekend.
After a busy day yesterday with some of the highest heat indicies we have seen in years along with numerous severe thunderstorms and flash flooding, radar is much quieter this morning with just some widely scattered showers. After 12Z, cannot completely rule out an isolated shower on the Plateau this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is expected for the rest of this week thanks to a large upper trough over the eastern half of the US. This feature will also bring us slightly cooler temperatures for a few days along with lower dewpoints and RH, which many will feel quite thankful for after the upper 70s to around 80 dewpoints we saw yesterday.
A cold front was analyzed across north central Georgia, and this boundary will approach the region overnight tonight. The 12Z sounding this morning showed a little cooler temperatures aloft, with 500mb temps closer to -4C, and a light westerly low level flow.
/issued 341 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/ Today will be a bit cooler with highs in the 90s most locations. Northerly flow aloft will also develop today with an upper ridge centered over AZ/NM. Maybe a few storms in the higher terrain for the afternoon hours with weak easterly, upslope flow in place.
Highs today wl be closer to seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
405 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern Gulf while a quasi-stationary front is noted near the I-20 corridor.
To the west a lee side trough and associated stationary front will remain in Montana today and approach the Dakotas tonight. The trough and frontal boundary will become the focus for one or two thunderstorms late this afternoon northwest, and more numerous thunderstorms across west and central North Dakota tonight. As an expansive low continues to move out of the region and high pressure settles in, expect abundant sunshine across western and central North Dakota through the day. Afternoon highs will be warmer than yesterday, but still well below average for this time of year, generally in the 70s.
1049 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Water vapor imagery as well as analysis continue to show a large mid-upper level ridge centered more or less over the Big Bend region of Texas. Upstream a weak upper level trough is traversing westward and is currently situated near the Turks and Caicos and extreme eastern Cuba.
A flat ridge of high pressure will remain over the region providing mostly clear skies with only a few high cirrus clouds.
/issued 405 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern Gulf while a quasi-stationary front is noted near the I-20 corridor.
Surface winds will be light, but turn to more of a westerly component, which will allow for slight warmer temperatures. Will confine PoPs to the higher terrain this afternoon, with low PoPs over the plains this evening. A weak cold front will push in late tonight and Thursday for slightly cooler air.
Solutions suggest thunderstorms will generate this afternoon over the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. As the day unfolds the subtropical ridge will become disorganized and recenter itself over the Four Corners region.
Main story in the near term continues to lie with the temporary reprieve from the high heat and humidity most areas today and Thursday as high pressure drifts southeast toward the mid MS/lower OH River Valleys. Should be a much nicer night tonight and Thursday night with lows down into the lower and mid 60s for the most part.