Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDED A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AND WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL RIDGE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
636 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED W-E IN VICINITY OF THE NC/SC BORDER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC ON THE SRN EXTENT OF A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. AND HENCE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PUSHES THE HIGHEST POPS SWD. THE SKY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OUT W ALSO LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND EWD GOING INTO SAT. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS STARTING SAT. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGIONS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE W WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
ESPECIALLY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING INDUCING FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION THAT WOULD PUT A LID ON ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TONIGHT-FRI: WITH THE STRONG(!) MASSIVE UPPER-DECK RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE CAP WOULD LIKELY BE SAFETY-SEALED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THE MID-UPPER DECK TROF PUSHES E FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS MON NIGHT & TUE.
155 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST.
401 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED W-E IN VICINITY OF THE NC/SC BORDER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC ON THE SRN EXTENT OF A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. AND HENCE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PUSHES THE HIGHEST POPS SWD. THE SKY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW COAST HAS PULLED THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM DELORES INTO ID TODAY. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW COAST LOSES AMPLITUDE. BUT BROAD UPPER TROF INTO THE PAC NW BY SUN MORN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU SE ID SUN NIGHT. BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MON. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY INTO THE NW STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHEAR THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARCO TO DILLON AND ACROSS THE SE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES (AROUND 80 METERS) IN SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOSTLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 60S. TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER OR MID 90S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. OUR BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
457 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BUT A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
300 AM MST THU JUL 23 2015 A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
235 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COMPLIMENTS OF 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
154 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CNY AND NEPA. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE TO MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY.
313 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
1128 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS AIDING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COOLER 90S NORTH OF THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015/ TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS A LEE TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WESTERN TROF OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BUT WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH HAS SOME MOISTURE CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE REGION.
A large trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest by this weekend.
442 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
WHILE ALOFT A TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN PLACE.
WITH LIMITED SHEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT HIGHER CAPE VALUES DO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. GFS FORECASTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS EASE SOME FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA CANADA AND EASTWARD.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IMPROVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AS 850MB TO 700MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. THE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG/IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MORE EARNESTLY PUMP IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE GENERAL SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE SRN STATES.
658 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED W-E IN VICINITY OF THE NC/SC BORDER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC ON THE SRN EXTENT OF A TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. AND HENCE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PUSHES THE HIGHEST POPS SWD. THE SKY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (DEWPOINTS LIKELY AROUND 70) AND STRONG FORCING VIA A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (WRF/RAP/NAM) DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AROUND THE BISMARCK AREA.
439 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE GULF AND PRODUCES A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER THAN NORMAL YET BELOW THE EURO AND GFS AND IS PREFERRED ON TEMPS THROUGH TNITE. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AROUND FLORIDA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 101 TO 102 RANGE. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND REACH WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A BROAD 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA LATE TONIGHT.
153 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
146 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 AVIATION A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
443 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED AT TIMES BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DAILY CHANGES TO THE STEERING FLOW.
653 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
102 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL NUDGE SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL WILL EXPAND WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE LOWER 90S COAST. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE IN WEST.
306 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
123 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG/IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MORE EARNESTLY PUMP IN SOME DRIER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO WHERE WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER TX WITH TROFS OVER THE ERN AND WRN USA. DWPTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7 DEG C/KM.
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.
BUT DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110 IN SOME AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS OF 3 AM MDT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH TODAY. THE LARGER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND ON FRI AS THE AXIS MOVES INTO ERN OREGON. WHICH MEANS LOWER 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE LIFT WHICH. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT AND BECOME SHEARED OUT ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
556 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 Today/Tonight: The influence of high pressure will help retain quiet weather and seasonable temperatures today across the forecast area. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in northeast Missouri to the upper 80s in east central Kansas. A H85 thermal axis will stretch into far northwest Missouri, and hot surface temperatures are expected to return for the area, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LOOKS GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GA. COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE ON THURSDAY DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE AREA DRY DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT THE GFS AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SIMILAR TO OR JUST A BIT WARMER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEN STALL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DOWNSTREAM OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. -VINCENT THE WEAK MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT DEEP INTO THE SE STATES FRIDAY.
201 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS S/W TROF AXIS PASSES THIS EVENING.
ONGOING NOCTURNAL ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR FAR WEST WITHIN MOISTURE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF 850MB WARM FRONT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING HUMIDITY/WARMTH IN OUR FAR WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT/SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE MOVE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT OVERLY STRONG IN OUR AREA AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE. WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST AS THE CONVECTION ROLLING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA LIKEWISE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET. LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK IN THE LOW LEVELS.
What is somewhat concerning is the high moisture content of the atmosphere. This along with high freezing levels will result in very efficient rainfall rates. The warm front will continue to lift northeast through the region Thursday night into early Friday.
638 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
408 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
618 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
642 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
621 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS S/W TROF AXIS PASSES THIS EVENING.
207 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS S/W TROF AXIS PASSES THIS EVENING.
344 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND PASSING JET SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE AIDING THE LOWGRADE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW CO AND NE UT EARLY THIS MORNING.
355 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 Today/Tonight: The influence of high pressure will help retain quiet weather and seasonable temperatures today across the forecast area. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in northeast Missouri to the upper 80s in east central Kansas. A H85 thermal axis will stretch into far northwest Missouri, and hot surface temperatures are expected to return for the area, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
255 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS EWD AND THICKNESSES INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. MODELS STILL SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO LINE THIS AFTN AND EVENING DESPITE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DRYING. IT/S AT THAT TIME WHEN A VIGOROUS NW CONUS TROUGH AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DISLODGE THE HIGH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH MAY STALL IN/NEAR THE REGION.
Weak high pressure will settle over the area at the surface with nearly zonal flow aloft.
/ISSUED 957 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ SFC OBS SHOW ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. /ISSUED 342 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ SFC OBS AND ANALYSIS SHOWS 1025 MB RIDGE ORIENTED SW-NE FM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PROVIDING LT NELY WINDS OVER THE CWA. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEPER TROF WILL DIG OVER THE WRN CONUS. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST. THE UPPER LVL TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT INTO SUN. WITH A SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING TX AND MOVING TOWARD LA. BRINGING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1243 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
Winds over the high terrain and near Grangeville, Idaho will gust over 40 mph at times. The strongest winds are anticipated on Wednesday, ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be challenging record warmth over the next couple of days, particularly overnight temperatures that may not cool to freezing in some valleys.
BUT WITH EVEN THE DEWPOINT ABOVE FREEZING THE MAIN ROADS WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ELEVATION OR SO. THE NEXT STORM COMES IN EVEN WARMER THAN THIS LAST ONE. CONDITIONS START TURNING COLDER ON THU AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ON THU NIGHT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
218 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2015 A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND A TROUGH AXIS.
/ISSUED 1010 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER E TX/N LA/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. DID REMOVE PATCHY FG MENTION FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR GIVEN THE HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
1027 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015 DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CONVERSE COUNTY AS DEER CREEK BETWEEN GLENROCK AND DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO HAVE GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH. BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
1010 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015 SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER E TX/N LA/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. DID REMOVE PATCHY FG MENTION FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR GIVEN THE HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW- LEVEL JET.
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING AS IS, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS FORECAST ADJUSTMENT.
348 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. LEFT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST SHOULD ANY MORE ROBUST ECHOES DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
319 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
259 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.