Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FAIRLY NICE LATE SUMMER DAY UNFOLDING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL COMPLIMENTS OF 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THAT EXPANDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS 80-85F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 07Z/2AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS TO TRICKLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA. CU-RULE SUPPORTS SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
Regional WV imagery depicts a well defined +PV anomaly moving through the base of the eastern CONUS trough, into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, an 18z analysis depicted a couple of troughs draped through northern and central GA and AL, associated with the upper level feature. Scattered convection has been forming along, and moving southeast off of these two troughs.
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
212 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING HOT NEAR RECORD MID AUGUST HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL EXPAND WEST THIS WEEK. HIGHS LATER IN THE WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE SEWD IN MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SFC COOL FRONT MOVING TO THE CAROLINA COAST SW TO SRN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
312 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE OK PANHANDLE/NRN TEXAS WILL START RETROGRADING TO THE WEST.
extensive cloud cover may again muddle the high temperature forecast, as occurred today and temperatures should be at or below normal. The upper ridge over the central and southern rockies will continue to amplify, resulting in vorticity disturbances shifted farther north across the northern plains. however, the GFS and ECMWF show a vigourous wave during the weekend moving through the northern states, effectively flattening the upper ridge and returning zonal flow aloft to the central high plains. this setup will result in low pressure across western kansas just ahead of an approaching baroclinic zone/frontal boundary by early to mid week, and a return to convective chances.
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ AS OF 3 AM A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE TO WAXAHACHIE TO TYLER LINE AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AND MOISTURE ACTUALLY INCREASES WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW 60S INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND MORNING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN FORECAST IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN. CONVECTION HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR W. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. NLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OR THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN U. THIS UPPER LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE BLOW UP OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAD MUCH TO DO WITH THIS AND KEPT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS A LITTLE COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKES IT WAY DOWN TOWARD THE HEART OF THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DROPPING OFF A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH.
518 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TONIGHT WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
354 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A RARE SUMMER COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DEEP INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGES TO OUR WEST. SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
Those that see the showers will likely not reach the highest potential temperatures.
229 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA INTO NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CSTL SECTIONS.
COLD FRONT IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SPARKING UP ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
127 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A FEW BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IR SATELLITE SHOWED A DEEP COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF EUREKA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE WESTWARD MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WE SHOULD RISE UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AND SOUTH WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THINK THAT TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH INCREASED MIXING. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
129 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 The front pushed through the area this morning bringing northeasterly winds and slightly cooler morning lows than we have seen the last several days. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s and 60s for much of the area. The high pressure system will continue to meander west across the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico and will reside over the Four Corners region by the end of the week.
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
323 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY.
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH AS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED WELL WEST OF THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RESULT. NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING FROM A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COULD ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM.
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WHILE THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
653 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RESULT. NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING FROM A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COULD ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM.
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 USING THE CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF A COLD FRONT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING COLDER AIR MASS. I WOULD PUT THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE ONGOING BAND OF CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE EAST COAST TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS/AMPLIFIES THE END OF THE WEEK MAY CUT OFF A WEAK LOW OVER THE WEEKEND -- A SOLUTION BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON IN GENERAL. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FALLING AFTER 06Z NORTH AND AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ROCKIES RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TONIGHT ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S EAST AND INTO THE MID 60S WEST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS.
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STILL BE RATHER HUMID UNTIL THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES.
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST THIS WEEK AND EVENTUALLY PARK NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
221 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.
239 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST.
A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY.
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 DRIER AIR-MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK/NW AR BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKLATX REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
428 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RESULT. NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING FROM A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COULD ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM.
617 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING LATE EVENING. BRINGING DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET. PARTICULARLY AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S WEST. RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FOG HAS SINCE DIMINISHED BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. INCREASED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT OBS ALREADY HAD LOCATIONS IN THE LOW/UPPER 80S ASIDE FROM THOSE STILL UNDER GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 70S.
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. FEATURING A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEB AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADS EAST TO ROUGHLY FROM KS THROUGH CENTRAL IA TO SW WI BY 12Z WED. THIS TRAJECTORY ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES WILL PROVIDE ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ANOTHER DAY WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OR PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST REGIONS. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED IN THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EC CONTINUED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS IN THE MODELS AND WITH THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WE EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR.
119 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND LOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SE OF PIT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING BROKEN CU/STRATOCU TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
MID MORNING TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS THE MAIN COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ 06Z POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOVING IN.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 72-HR PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE BUILDING H5/H7 RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THIS RIDGE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH IS GOING TO ADD FURTHER MOISTURE INTO THE ROCKIES.
157 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF KNOXVILLE TN THROUGH WINCHESTER TN TO NEAR MUSCLE SHOALS AL.
323 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL IOWA. WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY SETTLED ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WITH WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
345 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OUT IN THE PLAINS. WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND OFF OF THE WEST COAST. WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOME PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AND ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER EAST WITH TIME.
240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WELL INTO ONTARIO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE AREA SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ENDS UP PUSHING THE SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
143 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
336 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
228 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
220 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE MID LEVELS WARM A LITTLE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH.
145 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TODAY WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERIODIC CHANCES OF QPF AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.
POSSIBLY NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS INCREASE BEHIND TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC.
Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night, and many areas that have yet to experience a killing frost will dip into the upper 20s or low 30s.
THE LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY.
DAYS AS EASTERN TEXAS FALLS UNDER THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF A CARIBBEAN-CENTERED UPPER RIDGE. A DEEP TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES TODAY WILL BE THE IMPETUS TO LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION.
406 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVOLVING INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AT OR LESS THAN 1KM IN NAM SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN UPPER LOW IS SHIFTING OVER NEVADA BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP IT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.
659 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE WEATHER COOL WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.