Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST MODELS HAVE WARM FRONT NEAR nd/sd BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Latest incoming guidance indicates a slightly slower evolution of the 500mb upper low to the west. Cold front will be propagating through the region. Environment again favorable for significant severe weather once storms do develop along the cold front (most likley along and east of the valley).
Rainfall should be finished now as the upper low slides east and allows a drier northwest flow to take hold aloft. A weak trough has been generating light showers as well as MVFR conditions at KCEC this afternoon while KACV has been under VFR conditions. High resolution models indicate some drying tonight as high pressure builds closer to the coast.
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area tonight through Monday.
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Today will be cooler with lingering scattered rain showers mainly in central New York.
1214 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Today is expected to be even warmer than yesterday with the upper ridge still located over the plains, but with stronger southerly sfc winds. This will be a hot wind as high temperatures climb into the lower and mid 90s across south central Nebraska, with mid to upper 90s expected over north central Kansas. A rather significant upper low for this time of year will be tracking across the northern rockies today into tonight. Should storms form and track into our area or develop over our area on the low level jet, can not rule out the possibility of a storm or two briefly being strong to severe. An upper level wave and cold front are expected to move through the forecast area Monday and Monday night.
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Some isolated to widely scattered storms exist over SE OK and W AR mainly along and east of an H5 trough axis. The H5 trough slides a bit farther east on Monday suggesting that the bulk of the afternoon storms will be east of the forecast area.
322 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Convection has been less intense this afternoon due to cooler low level temperatures and weaker mid level lapse rates.
An early wave rides around the ridge this evening then afterwards there is an upward trend noted to 500 millibar heights. Slightly onshore component will keep lakeside areas a bit cooler.
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Anticipating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form along the lee trough near the KS/CO border this afternoon, on southern fringe of large scale forcing associated with strong northwest CONUS upper trough. Warm and windy weather Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough digging into the western CONUS, with another trough off the east coast. This regime has placed the region with ridging aloft in between, a pattern that will continue through the short term period. For tonight, surface ridging to the northeast will slowly push to the east. For tomorrow, ridging will amplify over the region. Highs on Monday will be warmer as return flow commences with readings expected in the upper 80s to low 90s.
First, Red Flag Warnings appear to be on track across the high plains of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebra- ska Panhandle. Upper ridge axis extended from the Desert Southwest northeast to the Upper Midwest. Upper low was approaching the WA/OR coast, with strong southwest flow aloft across the Intermountain West. Wavy surface boundary extended from NV to lows over northern UT, WY and ND, with a trough from southwest SD through eastern CO to southeast NM. The model guidance is in good agreement with the eastward track of the upper low and trough from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and Great Plains.
431 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Added UTZ027 to the wind advisory in effect until 8 pm this evening as wind gusts are already exceeding criteria at Bryson Canyon with gusts in the low 50s. An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset, to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold front.
/issued 431 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Looks like it could be an interesting wx day across the area given the presence of mid level trough axis from the Tennessee Valley through the lower Mississippi Valley. Disturbed pattern continues through Monday as mid and upper level low remain in place to the west of the area and frontal boundary meanders northward. Deese Rain chances through the extended are expected to be near climatological or slightly higher as weakness in mid-level ridge persists through the week.
Temperatures were in the lower 90s along the Keys earlier this afternoon. A persistent ridge, which has been extending westward and to the north of the Florida Keys during the last several days, will shift north tonight and tomorrow. Its axis will extend over northern Florida on Monday as the high pressure moves westward and stop to the north of La Hispaniola.
Now, concerning the high wind potential. A highly anomalous, spring- like storm system and associated cold front will move rapidly across the CWA on Monday. Temperatures Monday will be 15-20 degrees cooler than today with the cold fropa dropping H7 temperatures from +17 C at 00z Mon to +5 C at 00z Tue.
A low pressure trough to the north will bring more coastal clouds and cooler weather through Monday, along with strong winds to parts of the mountains and deserts through this evening.
/issued 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across West Central Texas. (Monday through Sunday) Upper level ridge will inch a little closer, dominating the weather across West Central Texas.
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 An approaching upper level low over the northern Rockies continues to progress eastward today. Currently expecting storms to develop in northeast SD in the vicinity of warm frontal boundary pushing northward. areas of heavy rain will be possible as well due to recent rains and the high amount of potential moisture with this system. A cold front will push east late in the day tomorrow. with the highest threat in the Red River Valley and eastward. Monday evening will see cold front move east and northeast around the 500 mb low to our west.
/issued 938 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Eastern Gulf, with a general SW flow across our region. Otherwise, some high clouds are streaming in from the west while KLCH radar shows only a few small -SHRA over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and offshore. A change in the upper level weather pattern will take place today as the center of the pesky upper level ridge will become more established over the southwest U. at the surface and the low levels, high pressure will be centered off of Florida and ridge westward across the Gulf South and into the forecast area. The one change will be a little bit more in convective activity as an upper level high weakens allowing showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage.
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A weak cold front, characterized more by drier air than cooler temperatures, will settle toward the coast of NC today. This is evident by sfc dewpoints in the low and mid 60s late this morning across the area. -26 A positively-tilted trough /shear/ axis aloft will continue to extend from the TN Valley NEWD across the SRN Middle Atlantic states, while the low level frontal zone remains quasi-stationary from SWRN VA to ERN NC, or squarely over central NC. Lows in the lower to middle 70s, with a chance of showers and perhaps a few storms lingering with little change in synoptic features overnight.
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure from florida peninsula to the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a trough was located central Arkansas to south central Mississippi. Upper air analysis and ir satellite imagery showed a positively tilted trough axis eastern Kentucky to northwest Louisiana and scattered convection south of the axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley. 500mb ridge has retreated west with axis from Baja California to Central PLains. ahead of upper level trough axis. Upper level trough axis or weakness is expected to stay around the area for most of the week.
If you are located north of the I-90 corridor, you have likely seen more sun and warmer temps than the rest of western Montana and north central Idaho so far today. In addition, snowfall has been observed at roughly 6400 feet in the high terrain of central Idaho.
After midnight tonight, there is small chance that storms from the High Plains move into and affect western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Highs may be a bit cooler than today due to cloud cover, so went conservative and towards the lower side of model guidance.
Eventually, the large- scale lift with deep trough pushing into the western high plains will push out into the region during the afternoon hours.
Very cool, rainy, and breezy weather today as deep upper low tracks directly through our CWA, something that almost never happens in July. The last holdout for storms should be the highlands south of the Snake Basin this evening. Clearing and cooler tonight. Mostly sunny and warmer later Monday.
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 60s.
A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area through tonight, resulting in significantly cooler temperatures for the first part of the workweek.
Slightly cooler temperatures return as well, however, highs will still reach up into the upper 80s to low 90s by afternoon. Monday night, although the surface front will push well southeast of the area, a slight chance for elevated showers or storms across the far southeast zones as the upper trough passes through.
KTW For 18Z TAFs: A weak upper trough will remain nearly stationary from the wrn TN valley swwd into the Arkaltex thru the TAF period, maintaining a very moist airmass and persistent threat for shra/tsra at the terminals. A greater threat for storms at MSL/HSV will occur this evening into the early morning hrs on Monday, as a warm front lifts nwd. Bkn-ovc stratus will spread nwd in wake of warm front, with cigs in the 3500-5000 ft range for end of TAF.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the region through much of Monday.
641 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will build overhead tonight before sliding east Monday. A trough will move into the Great Lakes late in the week bringing back chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered just upstream will settle over the region tonight providing mainly clear skies and light winds, allowing for good radiational cooling. High pressure will continue to dominate Monday as it drifts slowly into New England. Developing warm air advection will push afternoon temperatures away from the lakes into the lower to mid 80s. After a respite this weekend, mid-summer heat will once again build across the forecast area as a stout upper level ridge currently over the Great Plains makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes.
However, these will also limit extent of boundary layer mixing resulting in us holding the higher dew points deeper into the afternoon and may keep winds down a bit as well through mid afternoon or so.
/issued 431 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Latest water-vapor imagery shows a 500mb high centered over northern Mexico into southern New Mexico with the ridge extending towards Deep South Texas. Otherwise, hot and generally rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period courtesy of mid-level ridging.
Slightly warmer conditions are forecast today, especially inland. The airmass behind yesterday's dry cold front was well mixed and this morning's Fort Ord profiler indicates a lack of a marine inversion. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern California will begin to move off to the east today and the airmass over our region will begin to warm. The combination of a warming airmass and drier conditions will mean warmer afternoon high temperatures today for most locations. Gradual warming will continue through much of the week ahead as an upper ridge currently centered over the southern Great Plains expands to the west and north. SFO Bridge Approach.
An approaching upper level low over the northern Rockies continues to progress eastward today. Currently expecting storms to develop in northeast SD in the vicinity of warm frontal boundary pushing northward. areas of heavy rain will be possible as well due to recent rains and the high amount of potential moisture with this system. A cold front will push east late in the day tomorrow. with the highest threat in the Red River Valley and eastward. Monday evening will see cold front move east and northeast around the 500 mb low to our west.
Longer duration period of broken skies (6-10 kft) expected late today/early this evening, as warm front lifting north through southeast Michigan tonight should help sustain some mid clouds and possible sprinkles, otherwise another modest CU up expected tomorrow. Mid level northwesterly flow along the periphery of building upper ridging will linger across the region today. Moderating thermal profile as upper heights begin to rise will bring highs largely within the lower 80s this afternoon. Solid warming trend on track for the early week period, the response maximized as the aforementioned upper ridge pivots through and the low level gradient eventually turns southwesterly.
626 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A weak cold front will drop into the area today, bringing slightly lower humidity before returning north on Monday. Bermuda high pressure will build westward through mid-week, bringing near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures, along with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Latest obs show the cold front has stalled over our area just south of a line from ILM-CPC-MAO-FLO. A consensus of guidance lifts the front back north this afternoon and evening, with a warm and moist southerly flow re- asserting itself as high pressure builds back in from the south.
702 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 Arctic air dominates this weekend as low pressure passes to the southeast clipping the southern and eastern zones.
With a tight pressure gradient and reinforcing high pressure moving south behind this morning's cold front, winds are expected to remain strong out of the north through Saturday afternoon. /issued 251 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017/ SHORT TERM:(Now through Saturday Night): Northerly low level cold air advection pattern is well entrenched across deep south TX in the wake of a strong cold front that passed by to the south early this morning. The low level pressure gradient remains strong over the region and am expecting turbulent mixing to keep low temperatures in the upper 20s/lower 30s.
Much Colder late tonight with Freezing temperatures Saturday Forecast on track as pressure falls along the Big Bend region signal the approach the developing GOMEX low pressure system which is expected to track across NE FL/JAX then into coastal SE GA offshore waters by tomorrow morning. will feature steady to slowly falling temps from the 40s/50s in the morning to the upper 30s/40s by the afternoon as the low pressure moves up the SE U. coast and cold front gets swept SE of the region and offshore and this will quickly end the rainfall during the morning hours from NW to SE and offshore with just a few lingering light showers by the afternoon close to the NE FL coast. Advisory conditions will develop late tonight over the offshore waters s-sw winds increase ahead approaching Gulf low pressure.
Could easily see 1"/hour rates in this area through early Saturday, with upslope-enhanced snowfall rates potentially reaching 2"/hour in the higher elevations of the Smokys. Expanded Winter Storm Warning another tier of counties west to include Meigs and Hamilton counties -- there will be a sharp snowfall gradient somewhere in this general vicinity, but the impacts of even 2 inches of snow with subfreezing temperatures continuing throughout the day Saturday will be significant. Chattanooga Airport, TN 17 29 13 34 / 80 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 15 24 8 29 / 90 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 15 25 10 31 / 70 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 24 3 25 / 90 40 10 10 NC.
513 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 As high pressure gradually weakens and shifts east into the Atlantic waters this afternoon, moisture content will be increasing with mid to low level cloud cover moving into South Florida. This is associated to a warm front over the Gulf waters which will make its way into S FL. Weather will continue to deteriorate tonight into Saturday as warm front approaches Florida. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s over the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area where some peeks of sun are possible early in the day, and in the 70s elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually fall through the 70s north of a Naples to West Palm Beach line during the mid and late afternoon after the cold frontal passage.
/00Z TAFS/ Skies are in the process of clearing at the I-35 TAF sites behind the low stratus deck whose cloud bases are just above 3000 feet. Northerly winds sustained to 10-15 knots are expected later tonight through early tomorrow afternoon when high pressure moves overhead to weaken winds further and cause a return of SE flow at DRT and more E-NE flow for the I-35 TAF sites. The cold air remains in place tomorrow as the high pressure ridge axis begins to move into eastern Texas.
(Saturday Night through Friday) Saturday night will again be cold, but still warmer than what we will see tonight.
Todays lake effect flurries/fine light snow is occurring across about half of the CWA center along the M59 corridor aided by weak upper trough axis and diurnal heating. As the trough axis moves east and loss of daytime heating any precip will dissipate this evening along with a fair amount of lake effect stratus tonight. Highs will be slightly warmer then today in the mid teens.
As high pressure gradually weakens and shifts east into the Atlantic waters this afternoon, moisture content will be increasing with mid to low level cloud cover moving into South Florida. This is associated to a warm front over the Gulf waters which will make its way into S FL. Weather will continue to deteriorate tonight into Saturday as warm front approaches Florida. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s over the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area where some peeks of sun are possible early in the day, and in the 70s elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually fall through the 70s north of a Naples to West Palm Beach line during the mid and late afternoon after the cold frontal passage.
High resolution short term model guidance has been pretty consistent in bringing one last band of enhanced snow showers across East Central Arkansas and North Mississippi even as the lower resolution models have backed off of this solution. Dew points are currently in the low to middle teens across most of the region.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a strong cold front will move southward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will progress eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight.
More quiet weather for Saturday and Saturday night with high pressure remaining over the region. A strong low pressure system moves along the Atlantic coast but precipitation will remain well South of our area. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected with low level cold air advection and only partly sunny skies at best.
These two areas will be the focus for additional light snow across the cntrl TN Valley heading into the evening hrs, especially for the ne corridor where a better axis/stream of precip should evolve given the orientation of the upper trough pattern over the SE states. This should translate into wind chills Sat morning in the low single digits to 5 below zero. Very cold and dry wx conditions will be the story for the upcoming weekend period, as a strong dome of high pressure builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Temps on Sat will again struggle to reach the freezing mark, and may not even reach 30F, before lows once again fall well into the lower/mid teens Sun morning.
There could be some brief snow showers mainly later tonight and Saturday across far northern MN with another piece of short wave energy stream south through the upper low.
Glass The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad, impressive trough across much of the CONUS. In our neck of the woods, Arctic high pressure will keep the region cold and dry through the period. Given the ridge sliding through bringing light winds, mainly clear skies, and snow cover still present (especially over north-central MO), think temperatures will get very cold tonight. The one mitigating factor will be the ridge sliding to the southeast by 12Z Saturday morning, which could lead to some weak WSW return flow across north-central MO. The ridge will slide to the east-southeast on Saturday.
Snow levels will rapidly increase through the day on Saturday, reaching near 6000 feet by evening as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of an approaching storm system.
500-hPa ridging will build in from the southwest through tomorrow. Overnight lows look to bottom in the lower positive single digits. Highs tomorrow should be near to above freezing, so do expected some melting of the snow to occur. There is good news for people who like warmer temperatures.
It will be very cold with brisk winds tonight and gradually clearing skies, resulting in freezing temperatures and potentially hazardous wind chills. Plentiful sunshine on Saturday will end the freeze and wind chill issues by late morning, but freezing temperatures are expected again Saturday night.
512 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 High pressure will keep the weather dry but cold through the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 19 29 13 34 / 90 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 18 24 8 29 / 80 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 17 25 10 31 / 60 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 17 22 3 25 / 80 40 10 10 NC.
On the large scale, Iowa will begin the forecast period sandwiched between an upper-level trough near the Hudson Bay and upper-level ridging beginning to take shape across the mountain West. The thermal ridge will continue to build and shift westward. /Saturday night through Friday/ Ridging will slide across the state on Saturday night with quiet but cold weather.
Our low temperature forecast for tonight is on the low end of all model guidance or lower across areas that have snow cover. Locations with snow cover may fail to rise above freezing. Mean ridging will build in over the weekend resulting in continued mid-level height rises and a gradual warming trend.
While high pressure begins to build in from the west overnight, the surface wave moving off the SE US coast will spread clouds and precip up along the Mid Atlantic coast later tonight into Saturday. An upper trough over the lower Great Lakes/Ohio will keep the mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mountains, but with accums generally an inch or less.
Strong CAA ongoing behind last night's cold front will drive temps down to the mid 20s across most of the forecast area by sunrise tomorrow. Meanwhile leftover moisture from today's precipitation will begin freezing (if it hasn't already) on area roadways this evening.
The light snow/flurries will end through the afternoon/early evening along with the clouds moving out as the responsible short wave trough slides southeast. A surface Arctic high pressure area will build southeast into the region tonight into Saturday.
650 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 A ridge of Arctic high pressure will continue to extend into the region tonight and Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes Saturday night.