Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER ONE LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AS WE DRY OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
941 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN AFTER 10Z BUT WITH LESS RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS THINK THE LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/ THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO START OFF DRY WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AND WILL REBOUND ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 80S. CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS EVIDENT AROUND AN BROAD OFFSHORE RIDGE TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS AND OPENS UP AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 AVIATION A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WERE RAIN REMAINS ONGOING AND HAS STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
ALSO REMOVED SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS WE ARE SEEING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING AND INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
THE WESTERN WAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY/THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTH THRU OUR REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 20Z AND CLEAR OUR CWA BY 03Z. WITH READINGS THEN STEADYING OR EVENING FALLING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. ALOFT: THE TROF WILL DEPART THE REGION SAT LEAVING WNW FLOW THRU SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BE EVOLVING AND PROGRESSING THRU THE WRN USA. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU HERE MON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. SUNNY AND COOL UNDER THE THERMAL TROF. SUN: THERMAL TROF SHIFTS E AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS THE REGION.
1012 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
1002 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
744 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BACK OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST A BIT WHILE WEAKENING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI APPEARS TO HAVE LEFT SOME CONVECTIVE REMNANTS IN PLACE AT THE APEX OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
907 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY.
An upper level ridge that noses into southwestern Missouri will keep things quiet for the next few hours. Chances for rain will increase across the northern and, eventually, western portions of the area as the low level jet begins to veer late.
Thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon at our northern TAF sites as a cold front approaches from the north. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ Late summer heat will continue into Tuesday with the forecast trended warmer despite the potential for more extensive cloud cover tomorrow.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND GET GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT DHT AND GUY IN THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO AMA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST.
752 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS WASHINGTON MAY SPREAD SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SW WASHINGTON LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AM.
1016 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
1004 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
/ISSUED 420 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN AND BE PINCHED OFF. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AS ITS TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH.
1143 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS HUNG UP OVER SOUTHERN IA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. DOWNTURN IN THE TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT FROM RIDGING TO TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH CLOUD DEBRIS THINNING THROUGH LATE NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE WED AS LOW OVER THE GULF RETROGRADES WEST AND DEEPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REBUILDS ITSELF OVER THE LCL ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GOMEX.
/ISSUED 741 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015/ TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE EVENING UPDATE BUT LEFT SLIGHT MENTION FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WHERE THE WARMER WATERS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS UNSTABLE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT BUT FIND THAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT.
A QUICK CHECK OF 01Z TEMPS SHOWING VALUES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS ALMOST REACHED TRIPLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON.
917 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
732 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
850 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
1033 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1011 MILLIBARS) LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD. WITH ATLANTIC RIDGING EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PREVAIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN NORTHWARD AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON TUES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BANDED PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. ALL ACTIVITY MOVING WEST NORTH OF SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST THIS WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MOVE NNW INTO SW GA AND TRACK NORTH.
809 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 AVIATION A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
508 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. HIGHS NEAR 108 POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS BY WED AND AROUND 100 FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN.
741 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE EVENING UPDATE BUT LEFT SLIGHT MENTION FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WHERE THE WARMER WATERS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS UNSTABLE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT BUT FIND THAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT.
707 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL WEAKLY RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION AS OF 01Z. AS TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE LOW-MID CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s and might max out in the lower 80s, whereas areas farther north, where skies cleared out much earlier are running in the lower to middle 80s, and might be able to make a run at the upper 80s or lower 90s before the day is out. Given the PWAT values approaching 2+ inches a heavy rain threat is present for the overnight period tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 70 where the low level jet will nose into the area.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 88 71 84 / 10 30 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 87 70 84 / 10 20 20 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 87 70 82 / 10 20 20 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 86 65 83 / 10 20 20 60.
The low top cumulus clouds will also dissipate quickly this evening.
607 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS HUNG UP OVER SOUTHERN IA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. DOWNTURN IN THE TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT FROM RIDGING TO TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
The 00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of low pressure about 75 miles SW of Cedar Key. Radar imagery from KTLH/KTBW show a few showers rotating around this low pressure area, extending into Apalachee Bay.
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL WEAKLY RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION AS OF 01Z. AS TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE LOW-MID CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME. TT /ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA HAS KEPT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO FL/GA AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PUSH THE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGH MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. NOT SO IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.
935 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
Thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon at northern TAF sites as a cold front approaches from the north. As the cold front moves into the region Tuesday night, thunderstorm chances will spread to all TAF sites. Thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon at our northern TAF sites as a cold front approaches from the north. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ Late summer heat will continue into Tuesday with the forecast trended warmer despite the potential for more extensive cloud cover tomorrow.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A REINFORCING WAVE EMBEDDED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF UTAH TONIGHT. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE PASSING TROUGH TO NORTH MAY COME INTO PLAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW TRAILING THE EXITING TROUGH WILL DRAW VERY DRY AIR INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK.
915 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. WITH NE FLOW ALOFT AS OUR AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN TX. AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA COAST. TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS DEW POINTS ARE HOVERING AROUND THOSE TEMPERATURES. WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF PENSACOLA.
1116 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
705 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS Quiet night expected with mid level ridge still across the area.
EXPECTED A CONTINUED WARMING TREND TODAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU NIGHT. OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA TODAY SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BY THURSDAY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WA/OR AND AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER MILD DAY AND DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN RH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OVER THESE LOCATIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN FACT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. AND A COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
955 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OVER THESE LOCATIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN FACT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. AND A COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
1229 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED AND RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL PULL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL WORK EASTERLY TOWARDS THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WV imagery shows the upper low centered over SE AZ. /issued 341 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ Upper low bringing potential for thunderstorms with heavy rain over an extended number of periods to W TX and SE NM. Looking on IR the upper low can be seen over AZ early this morning with quite a bit of thunderstorms ahead of it in NM and far W TX. The latest model runs seem to be in pretty good agreement and are tending to take the low from AZ southward into Mexico. 24 hrs ago they tended to bring the low eastward to the edge of TX. That track of the low could limit the heavy rain potential for the eastern part of the watch.
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
1118 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUR CWA WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A THETAE RIDGE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT A LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY GET WARMER AS WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRI WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
728 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.