Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few less clouds are expected on Sat with slightly warmer temps. With a clear sky expected tonight and light winds, expect good radiational cooling and have trended temps toward the cooler guidance. The track this far north will be impacted by timing of an approaching weak trof that is currently still over the northern Pacific. The upper low should open sometime later Tues and move NE into the OH Valley. Behind Barry, expect the upper ridge to build into the region. Today, solns are also a bit stronger with the upper ridge. This should keep the latter half of the week dry with another round of temps into the mid to upper 90s and have trended toward the warmer guidance.
1201 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
The morning visible satellite imagery already reveals sct cu quickly developing across ECntrl LA within this higher tongue of PW's, with earlier morning isolated -SHRA having already diminished in the drier air of WCntrl LA. The water vapor imagery indicates that the drier air associated beneath the expansive upper ridge from the Four Corners Region into the Plains/Mid MS Valley continues to expand S across our region S into the Nrn Gulf on the N side of Barry, with the ongoing sct -SHRA along the NNW moving bands struggling somewhat to shift NW across SE LA given the deeper wedge of dry air in place.
The better chance for storms will be during the evening hours as they move off the higher terrain in Central Montana and move eastward into the area.
151 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated on the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge (over the Rockies) and northern periphery of an H3 ridge (over the Southern Plains), in weak W-NNW flow aloft. Forcing will be relegated to differential heating on the slopes of the CO Foothills/Palmer Divide, weak low-level convergence invof a broad thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies, and (perhaps) mesoscale features emanating from upstream convection.
cooler conditions continued across the CWA with temps in the mid to upper 80s common. These cooler conditions look to hang around one more night before low level moisture begins increasing over the region as Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana. Slightly warmer temps and higher humidity values are expected over the CWA Saturday. These conditions could create an isolated diurnal shower/thunderstorm within the higher terrain of Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas.
-Mottice A flat upper ridge over the region will slowly amplify through the weekend.
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected into Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
Shower activity looks to be present across southwestern Idaho, including the Magic and Treasure Valleys, and the Southwest Highlands, and across the Lower Treasure Valley in Oregon.
1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Currently have strong upper ridge setup over the southern Rockies with Tropical storm Barry just off the LA Gulf Coast. At the surface, a ridge extends from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains. Upper ridge over the southern Rockies is expected to remain nearly stationary through the weekend with Tropical storm Barry forecast to come on shore Sat and track slowly north across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper ridge is expected to slide slowly east to start the work week and by Wed will be centered over the southern Plains. VFR weather is expected to predominate in response to a large upper level high over the Four Corners and Southern Plains region.
1228 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
258 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Highs this afternoon should top out in the low to mid 90s across most of the area as the models have been in good agreement on this.
323 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The persistent 500 mb ridge centered over New Mexico and the northerly flow around the western side of Tropical Storm Barry will provide subsidence across south Texas through the period. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be in the 70s, except for the lower 80s near the coast.
239 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. Dewpoints will run some 5-10 deg cooler than yesterday making it feel much more comfortable over most of the region. This will be some 3-6 deg warmer than what it should be for the second week of July. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
241 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The upper high over the 4 corners region continues to dominate the region's weather.
1200 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley through Saturday, providing a dry period with more comfortable humidities.
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. This will be some 3-6 deg warmer than what it should be for the second week of July. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The upper level ridge is currently located to the west this afternoon. The ridge will remain to the west but will start to move east towards the area this weekend. As this occurs temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this weekend, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected.
Dew points are in the low 50s in many valley locales, with total precipitable water of 1. Activity begins around noon, blossoming over the high terrain of the White Mountains soon thereafter. This cloudiness was resulting in overnight temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than readings at this same time latest night. At any rate, the general trend the next several days will be an upswing in thunderstorm chances as the upper high remains centered near the four corners region and deeper moisture moves into the area.
253 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Currently the Midsouth is enjoying cooler temperatures with readings in the mid and upper 80s and heat indices areawide under 100F. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
The high PW values across the southern TN Valley are allowing for high rain rates with some of these storms, 1 to 2 inches per hour aren't out of the question. The high PWs will again allow for more heavy downpours. The highest POPs and heaviest rain for tomorrow will be centered across the central TN Valley.
continues to slide away from the area as Atlantic high pressure builds in along the Florida Keys then lifts north into the state Sat. These will maintain the high risk of rip currents and have extended the Coastal Hazard Message until Sat evening. For Sun through next Fri: Deep layer ridging builds in and dominates the area through the week with an air mass on the dry and stable side.
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 19z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Illinois. while a cold front extended from Lake Superior southwestward to South Dakota. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the KILX CWA through Saturday. Clear skies and light winds directly beneath the high will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s along/east of the I-57 corridor. The cold front will sag southward and stall during the day Saturday, with most model guidance suggesting scattered convection developing along the I-80 corridor by afternoon/evening.
1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The cold front which moved through yesterday has stalled out to the south over southeast Arkansas and into the Tennessee valley. Upper ridge looks to remain centered over the NM/CO border through tonight, while tropical storm Barry begins to move inland late tonight into Saturday morning. Temperatures may be slightly warmer today than yesterday, but most areas should still remain in the 80s with lows tonight in the mid 60s.
141 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley through Saturday, providing a dry period with more comfortable humidities.
A cold front was approaching the area this afternoon from the northwest. Will have to keep a very close eye on this cluster of storms and the cold front for additional storm development. The showers and storms should then be on a weakening trend as they push south of Interstate 90 tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Will have to watch the front, but thinking with the high edging in, any showers or storms should stay south of the area. A cold front approaching from the northwest will slowly cross the area, causing a wind shift from southwest to north.
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will result in dry weather tonight. Saturday, a warm front will become quasi-stationary near the KY/TN border.
After the weekend warmth, cooler temperatures are in store for the beginning of the work week. With strong high pressure resulting in 593 DAM heights over the desert southwest, subsiding, dry air on the west side of the ridge axis will provide clear skies and continued warming temperatures today and through the weekend.
An upper level trough is passing through Ontario and will drag a weak cold front through the region. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid to upper 60s across the southwest, to upper 50s over the northeast, where cooler and drier easterly flow will dominate.
1130 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 H5 ridge remains centered over southern CO today, with flow across WY from the southwest aloft. The southwest flow aloft will bring impulses across the region today, with enough instability to spark some thunderstorm activity, starting on the higher elevations early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will keep things warm and mostly dry as high pressure continues its influence from the southeast.
Some models are showing potential for shra/tsra tonight in advance of a southward moving cold front, mainly across the northern third of the CWA. After shra/tsra chances on Saturday, focus then mainly turns to heat for the remainder of the forecast period as the CWA falls under the influence of an H5 ridge.
Saturday looks to be a near carbon copy of today, minus the isolated afternoon storms, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph.
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A northwest flow of somewhat cooler air will be over the area today. A cold front could bring some showers Saturday afternoon and evening.
Pattern is expected to remain fairly stagnant for the next seven days as large upper level ridge remains across the central and southern plains with various ripples in the flow tracking west to east in the zonal flow.
143 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Aviation - Chance for isolated thunderstorms this evening into Saturday morning along and ahead of a cold front.
As Tropical storm Barry moves up through Louisiana into Missouri, the ridge will be limited somewhat keeping temperatures at bay in the lower 90s through the weekend.
Hot temperatures will also continue into tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated on the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge (over the Rockies) and northern periphery of an H3 ridge (over the Southern Plains), in weak W-NNW flow aloft. Forcing will be relegated to differential heating on the slopes of the CO Foothills/Palmer Divide, weak low-level convergence invof a broad thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies, and (perhaps) mesoscale features emanating from upstream convection.
The low level Atlantic ridge axis lifts north allowing a light southeasterly flow to develop across east central Florida. The weak high pressure over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis over the southern peninsula is forecast to lift gradually into the central peninsula through Saturday. Ridge axis lifts north on Saturday allowing an East- Southeast flow to develop with speeds 5-10KT.
608 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The upper level ridge is currently located to the west this afternoon. The ridge will remain to the west but will start to move east towards the area this weekend. As this occurs temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this weekend, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected.
High pressure will result in dry weather tonight. Saturday, a warm front will become quasi-stationary near the KY/TN border.
Highs this afternoon should top out in the low to mid 90s across most of the area as the models have been in good agreement on this.
/issued 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ Currently the Midsouth is enjoying cooler temperatures with readings in the mid and upper 80s and heat indices areawide under 100F. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
816 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. This will be some 3-6 deg warmer than what it should be for the second week of July. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
828 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure of 1015 mb is centered over central Illinois this evening resulting in clear skies and light or calm winds. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Illinois. while a cold front extended from Lake Superior southwestward to South Dakota. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the KILX CWA through Saturday. Clear skies and light winds directly beneath the high will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s along/east of the I-57 corridor. The cold front will sag southward and stall during the day Saturday, with most model guidance suggesting scattered convection developing along the I-80 corridor by afternoon/evening.
Temperatures and dewpoints are trending close to current observations and we should still see lows in the low 70s Saturday morning with some light fog possible.
1027 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across southern Florida resulting in strengthening east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight and winds will continue to freshen some out of the east to southeast. Forecast soundings do suggest that the low levels will destabilize and moisten some overnight. A pressure ridge extending into the Florida Peninsula will result in freshening east to southeast breezes across Keys waters. Chances for showers are too low to include in the TAF, owing to dry air above the low-level cloud layer.
/issued 241 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ The upper high over the 4 corners region continues to dominate the region's weather.
A cold front was approaching the area this afternoon from the northwest. Will have to keep a very close eye on this cluster of storms and the cold front for additional storm development. The showers and storms should then be on a weakening trend as they push south of Interstate 90 tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Will have to watch the front, but thinking with the high edging in, any showers or storms should stay south of the area. A weak cold front across southern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin will slide across both airports tonight.
Details: Instability continues to grow due to insolation in combination with elevated surface dewpoints across the High Plains in the upper 50s and 60s. The dirty upper level ridge that has been sitting over the region, keeping us generally dry and warm, will begin to shift east over the weekend.
The weak ridging will continue to allow moisture and modest instability into the area again on Saturday with afternoon temperatures similar to Friday.
Aloft, a trough axis is aligned from the western Great Lakes down to the Desert Southwest. The trough axis will move southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today.
1234 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Friday as high pressure builds south of the area.
353 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Low pressure will develop along the North Carolina coast this morning, moving northeastward and out to sea tonight.
In fact, the low cloud deck stretches all the way back to eastern Kansas as of 08Z.
1027 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper level trough axis will move out of NM overnight with clearing across the eastern plains. VFR conditions Friday with a lee side trough developing in the east, producing moderate southwest winds by afternoon.
254 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure shifts east today.
354 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper trough will be swinging across the Mississippi Valley this morning. At the surface, observations show a cold front currently moving southward across the CWA.
At any rate, high pressure remains to our west with a northerly flow still advecting cold air into the mid state.
The southern stratus is expected to creep back northward through the morning, clinging to the ridges, perhaps insulating these locations and keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than the rest of the area only marginally obscured by the high cirrus.
Persistent upper level ridge that has been in place over the western US will get rolled over as a significant upper level trough over the eastern Pacific moves east. Respectable height falls of at least 160 meters are expected with the eastern Pacific trough as it moves inland. However the trough will drop into the Desert Southwest. A weaker trough over the Yukon will move into southern SASK by 00z Sun. Little or precip is expected with the trough itself. However warm advection precipitation will precede the upper trough.
1026 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Updated forecast to include patchy freezing drizzle mention northwest/western areas mainly before midnight. The current scenario has a SW-NE oriented long wave trough moving through the Midwest with the primary short waves/PV anomalies to our west. As the long wave trough exits, warm/theta-e advection increases across much of the area through the day, but insufficient moisture here will keep any precip relegated to MN and WI even though decent QG forcing will be in place, especially 850/700. /Friday night through Thursday/ Attention in this period will eventually turn to a pattern change with some form of a long wave trough developing across the western CONUS.
308 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 The important features for this morning's forecast are an upper level low located over the Gulf of California and an upper level short wave trough located along the coast of British Columbia.
The high will move east tomorrow and an upper trough digging into the desert southwest will increase clouds and continue the cool temps for one more day. The trough will not only increase clouds but will bring a chance for rain northwest of a Lamesa to Pecos line.
As winds start to turn around to the southwest and bring in some warmer, dry air; RH values are expected to fall into the upper teens and lower 20s across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon.
Cold front will weaken today as it moves into north Florida this morning and then slowly southward across the area tonight. Max PW values will only be around an inch, with most of the moisture in the lower levels below 800mb, resulting mainly in greater cloud cover north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will then fall into the low to mid 50s again tonight, as passing frontal boundary remains weak. A north to northeast wind shift behind the front Sat will produce a slightly cooler day but lack of moisture assocd with the front will keep rain chances out of the forecast.
This will setup some decent downslope today which will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer than they were Thu. Attention will then turn to the upper low that is currently situated near Baja.
A cold front will push south across the forecast area overnight/early Friday morning.
348 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Mean upper level western ridge begins to break down in the short term period. Thus temperatures will range quite a bit today from the lower 50s southwest to around 30 or so in the Turtle Mountains. As the snow tapers off tonight, we do lose the ice aloft and there could be a short period of light freezing precipitation before the precipitation completely ends. At this time, we think the precipitation will be mostly over and any amounts would be very light and we have limited this to a mention of light freezing drizzle.
357 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper trough will be swinging across the Mississippi Valley this morning. At the surface, observations show a cold front currently moving southward across the CWA.
223 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Isolated snow showers are continuing over our central CWA as main trough axis is still transitioning southeast and pocket of negative theta E lapse rates lingers over NW Kansas for the next few hours. This will offset the increasing 850 mb temperatures and downslope winds or would go even warmer than what I have in there. Still temperatures will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
350 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Biggest concern during the short term is timing in precip and amounts with a warm frontal band of snow that is expected to impact areas mostly north of I-94 this evening. Water vapor imagery this morning shows energy working into British Columbia that is finally starting to break down the western ridge that has been in place for the better of the past week. This ridge axis will slide southeast and flatten out through the short term, but theta-e advection on the nose of the ridge will provide us with the forcing for a light snow event this evening and more so overnight.
203 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Scattered to broken cloud cover was moving across the region this morning and will continue into this afternoon as an upper level trough moves across the Ozarks today. This will allow warm air advection (WAA) to begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area along with clearing skies.
Further west, the precipitation has been falling as flurries and light freezing drizzle in central Iowa, where it has created some ice covered roads. The low clouds, covering much of the upper MS valley and northern plains will continue to blanket the area through at least the morning hours. Afternoon sunshine developing low level warm air advection should push temperatures into the lower 40s in the southwest half of the forecast area. Low clouds lingering in the northeast, along with flurries, will likely hold highs to the lower 30s there.
This period we will see a pattern change from the recent cold troughing and frequent clipper systems to a milder ridging with pieces of energy sweeping in from the southwest.
Warmer air will begin to move in overnight, so the below average temperatures should only last for today before we warm up tomorrow.
With 925 hpa temps above freezing, lows should only be a few degrees away from seasonal highs this time of year.
As an upper level trough approaches later today and then weakens, the high level moisture will move out late today and tonight.
For tonight, radiational cooling will again produce lows close to freezing.
1124 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 A cool air mass and cloudy skies have kept temperatures in the middle 30s to the lower 40s across the area this afternoon.
328 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 A positive tilt upper level trough extended from the Great Lakes states southwest across MO into eastern OK and TX. The upper trough will shift eastward across the eastern US and off the atlantic coast by 12Z SAT. The southern stream portion of the upper trough will close off into an upper level low across northern Mexico.
A fairly strong mid level trough will drop southeast across mainly southeast Wisconsin from the northwest early this morning and off to Lower Michigan by noon.
A strong northwest to southeast thermal gradient will bisect the forecast area today, resulting in highs ranging from the upper teens across north-central WI to the lower 30s across portions of northeast IA.