Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A large upper trough which extends south from western Canada into the PacNW pushed a cold front through the region overnight. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler today. An upper level trough sweeping west to east along the US-Canadian border this morning has already begun to dampen the ridge and usher in a cooler, drier airmass across much of southeast Oregon. Temperatures will reach into the low 90s across the lower valleys for both Sunday and Monday.
1125 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind.
Temperatures aloft have cooled due to the ridge sinking to the south and weakening. Scattered storms are expected for north central Florida due to being closer to the upper ridge, and some drier air lingering there. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s, except near 90 along the beaches.
930 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Axis of low level ridge is settling closer to central Florida which will lead to rather light gradient winds. Continued favorable boating conditions with the axis of the Atlantic high pressure ridge settling into the northern waters.
the abundant cloud cover and expected rainfall will keep temperatures a bit cooler for the next couple of days.
The cold front will move slowly southeastward today, as the upper level support in the trough axis splits, with one part of the energy diving southward over Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio and the other part drives northward, over Southern Canada, toward the main upper low. Weak warm air advection is expected later today as winds at the lower and mid-levels swing toward the southwest. This will promote warmer temperatures, closer to seasonal averages. The cold front will attempt to move through the area tonight, but will stall as it waits for the main trough axis.
An upper level trough combined with low level onshore flow will keep Western Washington cooler than normal today. A weak upper level trough will remain over the region this week and onshore flow will continue, which will maintain this typically mild summer weather pattern. A passing upper level trough will bring cooler conditions to Western Washington today. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s - a few degrees cooler than normal. A weak, baggy trough will linger over W WA through Monday for generally mild and quiet conditions.
Precip chances will linger across western Kansas today as short range models indicate the weak upper level low across eastern Colorado lifting slowly northeast into Nebraska during the period. Little change to the general air mass and increased cloud cover will keep highs from climbing out of the mid to upper 80s(F) across west central Kansas to highs still possibly reaching the lower 90s(F) further south and east. Expect lows down into the 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) tonight. Otherwise, ridging aloft will dominate from the South Plains northward into the high plains of western Kansas the remainder of the week leading to much drier and hotter conditions across the region.
First, the upper ridging extending over the high plains has been weakened by small upper-low over eastern Colorado, which coupled with monsoonal moisture has produced persistent convective activity in the central high plains the past few days. A weak disturbance rotating around the upper ridge will carry some of this moisture swwd out of Oklahoma and across West Texas today and tonight.
The upper level ridge vital to steering flow for the North American Monsoon continues to remain over the Nevada-Arizona-Utah boundary. This will allow for North-Northeast steering flow across much of the area and will increase the potential for storms to develop off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim before moving Southwest across the Yavapai and Gila counties. Through this timeframe the axis of the upper level ridge will shift eastward into Colorado and New Mexico. With this shift in the ridge the steering flow of the monsoon looks to come out of the southeast and move towards the northwest spreading low level moisture and subsequent thunderstorms across much of Northern Arizona.
With the strong outflow boundary moving south and expected to set up across our central TX counties, and higher moisture generally across the southern half of the CWA, we'll have the highest PoPs generally south of I-20. /Issued 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ /Monday Onward/ The upcoming week will feature hot and mostly dry conditions across the forecast area as the upper ridge expands eastward into the central and southern Plains. Through midweek, the upper ridge will gradually intensify, leading to a subtle warming trend.
Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across most of the area this and will maintain a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-40. The subtropical ridge will assert more influence on the forecast as we head through the work-week.
1005 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Overnight GOES-16 water vapor loop depicted a mid/upper level ridge dominating the west-central CONUS. Weak disturbances trapped under the ridge triggered several clusters of active convection from the Desert Southwest to the southern Great Plains. 00Z short range models and ensembles are in good agreement progging the upper ridge to gradually shift to the east and south through early this week, opening the door to subtropical/monsoonal moisture. Similar high temperatures are forecast Monday, slightly warmer across southeast WY and southern NE Panhandle.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures, but slight cooling is expected the next few days. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains over the high Sierra north of Kern County through early this evening. The center of the strong upper highs is now over southern Nevada. The upper high will gradually shift east the next few days as an upper trough drops down off the Pacific Northwest coast. The Pacific NW trough will bring a drier southwest flow aloft over central California.
1022 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually settle south from Canada and stall over northern New England tonight before returning north on Monday.
606 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis indicate a series of vorticity lobes embedded within broader-scale troughing over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a pronounced upstream ridge was depicted from the Four Corners into the Canadian prairie provinces with a subtle mid-level low over the central High Plains. In the low levels, a weak baroclinic zone stretched from southern WI westward across northern parts of IA and NE into the northern High Plains as of 06z. This low pressure will subsequently develop east across the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley through Monday night while a trailing cool front edges south through the northern Plains.
1235 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. In terms of upper air, latest water vapor shows a broad trough covering much of the eastern US, with a shear axis running NE to SW across the Carolinas. The mid level trough axis is forecast to remain along the Appalachians Monday and Monday night. Even though the low level boundary should just about wash out by then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms on the waters south of the Lower Keys, with only isolated showers elsewhere. Surface wise, an elongated trough extends from the Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys to the extreme northwest Bahamas. Given plenty of moisture below 700, a distinct, albeit elongated trough (SFC-700 mb) from the northwest bahamas into our area will migrate slowly westward and across our entire region this afternoon before dissipating early tonight.
640 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Upper ridging remains in place from the Rockies into the central and northern Plains. Medium range models do try and bring a cold front down into the central Plains Sat into Sat night, but confidence in this making it into our forecast area is low at this time. Strong, massive upper-deck ridge covering the Great Plains insures VFR status for all areas thru Mon morning & likely beyond.
512 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Overnight GOES-16 water vapor loop depicted a mid/upper level ridge dominating the west-central CONUS. Weak disturbances trapped under the ridge triggered several clusters of active convection from the Desert Southwest to the southern Great Plains. 00Z short range models and ensembles are in good agreement progging the upper ridge to gradually shift to the east and south through early this week, opening the door to subtropical/monsoonal moisture. Similar high temperatures are forecast Monday, slightly warmer across southeast WY and southern NE Panhandle.
The dominant weather features across the CONUS this morning remain the strong upper ridge situated over the Intermountain West, and a persistent upper trough over New England and the Great Lakes. The latter feature has resulted in a gradual weakening of the subtropical ridge that would normally extend across the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico. With modes ridging aloft and the ridge axis positioned over northern Florida, low level east/southeast flow will likely keep the west coast seabreeze from getting too far inland. Seasonal temperatures are forecast to persist with highs ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to the low/mid 90s inland, and lows in the middle and upper 70s.
745 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind.
627 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Another short-term forecast is largely governed by the sub- tropical ridge aloft. However, there is a closed low meandering through this ridge, heading toward our area, as models have been predicting, and eventually becoming an opening wave. Compared to yesterday, it appears that the timing of this low is about 6 hours slower than it was yesterday, and the ECMWF is even slower than that.
Still a shift from a more northwesterly flow pattern with embedded waves to broad ridging aloft expanding over much of the southern two thirds of the country. The slightly cooler air and associated cloud cover may keep Monday's high temps in the low to mid 80s, with a northeasterly component to the winds. but the cooler air will not stay in place too long before the broadening area of the upper ridge eventually results in plenty of warm air from the SW shifting over the Miss River Basin and into the Midwest. The ECMWF and the GFS are a still conflicted as to the strength and northern extent of the ridging aloft as a series of quick waves top the ridge. which will result in heat indices back into the low 100s.
1012 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 At 10 AM CDT around the region, temperatures have already climbed into the low to mid 80s. A cold front that pushed into the region yesterday is roughly located along this same location, and will be a weak focal point for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, mainly across north Mississippi. Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across most of the area this and will maintain a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-40. The subtropical ridge will assert more influence on the forecast as we head through the work-week.
Surface ridging in place tonight will gradually yield to falling pressures with the approach of the remnant low of Irma. An upper ridge will build east over the area late this week, resulting in hot days and mild nights through the weekend.
Winds will become more southerly drawing up warmer air at 850mb between 6Z and 18Z. The trough is not expected to trigger any showers through Tuesday afternoon.
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure will remain across the region into Tuesday. High pressure will return for the weekend. High pressure should keep conditions dry thru tonight while high clouds from Irma spread north across the area.
846 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the North Country with dry and warmer conditions through most of the week. Current forecast in good shape with high pressure building aloft. High pressure at the surface along with ridging aloft will lead to another night with cool temperatures, calm winds, and patchy fog. Expect mostly clear conditions after fog/low stratus in the morning burns off, along with warmer temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 70s in the broader valleys. Tuesday night will still be under the influence of surface ridging while the upper ridge weakens.
517 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 The latest water vapor images and short-term model analyses showed high pressure covering much of the western into central CONUS with an upper low just southwest of CA and tropical storm Irma moving across the Southeast as it starts to make its extratropical transition. There were some weak cumulus clouds over the highest BLKHLS this afternoon where MLCAPE was 100-200 J/kg.
736 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure will keep clear conditions over Central NY and Northeast PA through Tuesday evening. As is typical when our region is affected by strong high pressure close to the autumnal equinox, we will see huge temperature swings between day and night and deep valley fog during the early morning. High pressure will yield a picture-perfect sunny day. Ridging, both surface and aloft, is expected to nudge eastward and off the east coast during the mid-week period. This is expected to allow an upper-level trough (the remnants of Irma) to move into the mid-Atlantic states.
751 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 The evening surface analysis is showing an area of high pressure remains parked to our northeast across eastern PA and remnants of Irma slowly moving northward. High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will shift out into the Atlantic through the short term as the remnants of Irma track into the Tennessee Valley. Exception will be the highest terrain to our southeast along the Kentucky-Virginia state line. Some stronger winds will be possible along the ridge tops in these areas but expectations are that the lower and relatively sheltered valley locations will be spared.
1052 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight. Periodic unsettled weather is expected the rest of the week with slow moving low pressure. High pressure will remain in place through tonight as Irma lifts northwestward toward TN. Outside of some high cirrus from the weakening tropical system, conditions will remain dry, with warming mid-levels supporting slightly warmer high and low temperatures today and tonight. This band will have to overcome a rather dry atmosphere, with forecast soundings suggesting plenty of dry air in the low levels, so PoPs were kept rather low through the day.
724 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will shift out into the Atlantic through the short term as the remnants of Irma track into the Tennessee Valley. Exception will be the highest terrain to our southeast along the Kentucky-Virginia state line. Some stronger winds will be possible along the ridge tops in these areas but expectations are that the lower and relatively sheltered valley locations will be spared.
Freezing level at 14,300 feet, -20C level at 24,200 feet and wet bulb zero at 10,500 feet. As a result, went about 4 degrees above guidance for tonight's lows to get them into the lower 60s at the cooler locations, though the area has been undergoing dynamic cold air advection aloft with lowering of thicknesses on thermal wind.
655 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 We'll see quiet weather tonight under strong ridge aloft, with clear skies and warm temperatures. The Blacktail Fire in the northern part of the Crazy Mountains became active this afternoon, and we could see some thicker smoke drain from the high terrain to places like Two Dot and Harlowton.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 65 60 71 / 100 70 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 74 59 74 / 80 70 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 55 72 59 71 / 80 60 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 74 56 78 / 80 70 20 20 NC.
1136 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Little change to forecast trends in the short term as area remains south of stronger upper flow and between impressive looking trough coming into the western CONUS and departing remnants of Irma.
425 PM MST Mon Sep 11 2017 Dry air moving into the region will end rain chances starting today while also bringing warmer temperatures through the middle of this week.
425 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Warm weather will continue into Tuesday as high pressure lingers over the Inland Northwest.
There have been no tropical storm force gusts in our forecast area this evening so we have cancelled the remaining tropical storm warnings for south GA and AL, and have also cancelled the High Wind Advisory for the remainder of the forecast area. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 60s.
717 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Warm weather will continue into Tuesday as high pressure lingers over the Inland Northwest.
40 to 50 mph has been the norm for most of the area and winds in the higher elevations have been even higher with some gusts close to 70 mph above 2500 ft.
Tropical storm Irma is moving into the southeast US today and is causing the upper level ridge to become suppressed across the four corners region.
A low pressure off the coast will linger into the weekend for low clouds, fog and drizzle at times west of the mountains. Otherwise, temps today ended up trending warmer in many areas, especially coastal sites, despite a 3mb onshore trend and humidities that are actually higher than yesterday. Temps Tuesday expected to trend cooler with the increase in onshore flow, drier air aloft, and some increase in marine lyr clouds. With the upper low remaining well offshore not expecting much in the way of convective development Tuesday except for some afternoon cumulus over the interior.
High temperatures will be quite warm in the lower 90s most areas. River levels on the St Johns remain affected by torrential rainfall from tropical cyclone Irma.
1050 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the North Country with dry and warmer conditions through most of the week. Current forecast in good shape with high pressure building aloft. High pressure at the surface along with ridging aloft will lead to another night with cool temperatures, calm winds, and patchy fog. Expect mostly clear conditions after fog/low stratus in the morning burns off, along with warmer temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 70s in the broader valleys. Tuesday night will still be under the influence of surface ridging while the upper ridge weakens.
901 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 We'll see quiet weather tonight under strong ridge aloft, with clear skies and warm temperatures. The Blacktail Fire in the northern part of the Crazy Mountains became active this afternoon, and remains hot this evening, and we could see some thicker smoke drain from the high terrain to places like Two Dot and Harlowton.
Remnant low pressure from Irma was centered near KCSG at 05Z. The low will continue to move northwest toward West TN through the next 24 hours as it continues to weaken.
Tropical storm Irma with 45 mph winds was defined by a 994 mb low pressure over sw GA and moving nw at 16 mph. Our far NW counties could dip into the lower 50s due to the delay in cloud arrival. Temperatures will top out in the lower 70s S of I-70, with some upper 70s possible farther to the NW, or west of I-55.
737 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the North Country with dry and warmer conditions through most of the week. High pressure at the surface along with ridging aloft will lead to another night with cool temperatures, calm winds, and patchy fog. Expect mostly clear conditions after fog/low stratus in the morning burns off, along with warmer temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 70s in the broader valleys. Tuesday night will still be under the influence of surface ridging while the upper ridge weakens.
731 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight. Periodic unsettled weather is expected the rest of the week with slow moving low pressure. High pressure will remain in place through tonight as Irma lifts northwestward toward TN. Outside of some high cirrus from the weakening tropical system, conditions will remain dry, with warming mid-levels supporting slightly warmer high and low temperatures today and tonight. This band will have to overcome a rather dry atmosphere, with forecast soundings suggesting plenty of dry air in the low levels, so PoPs were kept rather low through the day.
920 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure over New York will move offshore on Tuesday. The combination of high pressure off the FL coast and low pressure over TN will put the Mid Atlantic in warm moist flow.
Movement of the upper low off the California coast northward may push scattered clouds into central Oregon overnight. High temperatures today were up 5-10 degrees from yesterday so expect overnight lows to be warmer. The upper low will drift a little further north Tuesday with scattered clouds and possibly a few showers or thunderstorms into central and northeast Oregon.
The sites with the highest confidence of seeing lowered ceilings and rain are KMEI/KGTR/KGWO. Irma's remains will then become fully merged with a broad upper-level low pressure system over Mississippi and mainly be a source for light to moderate rainfall across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Valley. If these cooler temperatures materialize tomorrow, without much heating before or after rain falls, then several coolest maximum temperature records could be broken tomorrow. In fact average *low* temperatures for this time of year are near 65 degrees, and high temperatures could stay cooler than that tomorrow. Conditions closer to the Highway 84 corridor should stay warmer and less rainy, but some light rain will still be possible through those areas.
754 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Weak mid/upper level low spinning over central WY is maintaining line of showers and a few t-storms from west of Douglas to northeast of Rawlins. Little change seen over the next couple days with upper ridging holding from the desert southwest into Wyoming with warm mid-level temps limiting convection to mainly the higher mtns. This begins flattening the upper ridge over the area and may allow for a little more convective coverage Weds afternoon and evening across mainly southeast Wyoming.
526 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Main forecast issue continues to be the low chance of thunderstorms in the western portion of the area for tonight. So again went toward the cooler guidance. High temperatures look to be near to maybe slightly cooler. Based on recent trends and guidance will go close to a touch cooler than todays temperatures. Ridging/no lift will make for a dry and sunny day.
Updated Aviation DiscussionDry air moving into the region will end rain chances starting today while also bringing warmer temperatures through the middle of this week.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: Today, the Rocky Mountain and High Plains ridge of high pressure is rebuilding and expanding through the region - bringing warmer temperatures and drier humidity to most locations. Temperatures tomorrow should be very similar to today, ahead of an approaching large-scale low pressure trough, set to change the seasons through the latter part of the week. Cooler temperatures are a certainty, but how much rainfall occurs continues to be a question.
858 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017 A low pressure system off the coast will linger into the weekend for low clouds, fog and drizzle at times west of the mountains. A stubborn trough of low pressure continues to spin near 34N and 124W, or about 175 miles west-southwest of Point Conception. This trough will slowly move north through Tuesday, while deepening slightly.