Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
346 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A cold front will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will start to build in Tuesday night and then predominate through much of the rest of the week. Skies will likely clear for a while this evening, but then expect some more to develop/move into the area later tonight as a cold front pushes into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front will cross the forecast area during the morning. High pressure will start to build in Tuesday night. Drier and cooler conditions will filter in with lows dropping into the 50s.
320 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Latest surface analysis places a weak cold front just east of Paducah, Kentucky extending southwest through Tunica, Mississippi and back through the ArkLaTex. With the main trough axis swinging through overnight, stratus is expected to build in across the northeast half of the forecast area.
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will track north along the Georgia coast late this afternoon and the South Carolina coast this evening.
As the large high pressure ridge centered across the Dakotas and Minnesota spills further southward tonight and remains draped across Iowa on Tuesday, expect the clouds will largely dissipate with sunset this evening and light/calm winds overnight will allow temperatures to fall even a few degrees further than this morning, with scattered upper 40s especially in northern sections. The clouds should fill in again on Tuesday, but to somewhat less of an extent nearer the core of the ridge, and temperatures will peak at levels similar to this afternoon, generally in the 70s.
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Cool Canadian high pressure across the area leading to below normal temperatures and light winds.
This convection popped up due to steep low to mid level lapse rates along with along with low level convergence in the vicinity of a cold front which is moving slowly southeast through the region. Think Tuesday will be very similar to today, although with a cooler start in the mid 50s to around 60. The steep low-mid level lapse rates caused by the deep longwave trough overhead should help to destabilize the atmosphere enough for plenty of afternoon cu as well, but forecast sounding show a strong subsidence inversion starting at about 750mb which should keep a lid on any showers that try to develop.
305 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Fairly busy this week as a couple upper troughs affect the area. First trough will keep the threat of showers/thunderstorms going into Tuesday.
A cold front is knocking on our door here at NWS Memphis.
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure will gradually shift east tonight, with return flow setting up this evening.
Any TS that survive coming off the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico is likely to stay west of the terminals. Here in West Texas, we are under the influence of subsidence both from the upper level high to our west as well as a boost behind the MCS off to our SE. Tomorrow looks to be warmer though most everyone should remain dry during the day. this around upper high centered across nrn Mexico west of El Paso. Could see some storms move off the higher terrain in NM and affect the SW Panhandle late.
1041 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Currently - The Keys are near a col forced by Isaias near the Carolina Coast and ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. The col also reaches into the lower levels. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging is expected to extend westward across South Florida and the Keys through the remainder of the overnight period. A fairly flat pressure pattern will give way to the Atlantic ridge poking westward across South Florida and the Keys.
High pressure will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure and a secondary low pressure system.
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in spectacular, fall-like weather to continue tonight into mid-week. Summer-like weather finally returns by the end of the work week as high pressure slides off to the east, and moisture streams back into the area.
811 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Update: Cold front is over Central Montana this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along and ahead of the front. Previous Discussion: Fairly busy this week as a couple upper troughs affect the area. First trough will keep the threat of showers/thunderstorms going into Tuesday.
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure will keep us dry and cool through tomorrow. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s in the Minnesota part of the CWA. Fair weather cumulus will be somewhat more widespread in Wisconsin today which will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow and fair weather cumulus will return.
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure is expected to move into the region, leading to a quiet short term.
643 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain situated across much of eastern Kansas tonight bringing light winds and continued cooler than normal temperatures. So we expect to see the coolest readings across southeast KS where lows will fall into the low to mid 50s while much of central KS sees lows in the mid to upper 50s (normal lows for early Aug are around 70). There appears to be a stronger signal early on Wed when the highest pops were maintained. The mid/upper ridge over the southwest is progged to build towards the central CONUS through much of the period. This should result in a return toward a more seasonable airmass across the Great Plains with highs returning to the low to mid 90s for most areas.
High pressure will gradually shift east tonight, with return flow setting up this evening.
/Issued 244 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and associated with a stationary front, instability axis and SW upper level flow ahead of an upper level trough, are expected to diminish this evening. The stationary front is expected to dissipate tonight as another weak cold front approaches and moves into the area Tuesday. The upper level trough looks to be less dynamic on Tuesday so the highly diurnal convection should be less strong than today with less overall coverage and is expected to dissipate Tuesday evening. BDL As Isaias works its way up the coast the synoptic scale holds a deep trough through the southeast with an upper level low across the northern great lakes.
Wile most will remain in the upper 40 to low 50 range, some typical cool spots in NW MN closer to the center of high pressure may dip into the mid 40s. High pressure will move slowly to the east tonight and tomorrow, with winds shifting to the southeast. An upper level low centered near James Bay will fill a bit as the upper level ridge over the intermountain west begins to build.
A dry and weak cold front will result in a cooling trend Tuesday. Meanwhile the suppressed mid level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest, with the elongated axis keeping any appreciable moisture confined to the low deserts of southern Arizona. By midweek an upper trough developing along the California coast will induce a mean southwesterly flow downstream across the forecast area.
An anomalous longwave trough remains draped across the Mississippi Valley with a surface cold front analyzed over northwest Mississippi as of 9pm. A broad high pressure ridge is building over the Plains From the Dakotas south into OK, and Tropical Storm Isaias is moving up the east coast of the CONUS. Although cooler and drier air is filtering into the region, mid and low level moisture is still enough for the development of a cu field by mid morning.
Despite being just behind the shallow cold front, the thunderstorms have been able to generate within an area of dew points still near 70F and 30-35kt of effective bulk shear.
The slowly decaying ridge axis continues to produce warm to hot temperatures across northern Arizona.
Upper troughing persists over the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon with Tropical Storm Isaias located off the South Carolina coast continuing to progress northeast along the eastern seaboard. Northwest flow aloft and a ridge axis maintain unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions over the forecast area for the next few days. Temperatures fall into the low 50s tonight; normal lows are around 70 for early August.
707 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A cold front will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will start to build in Tuesday night and then predominate through much of the rest of the week. Skies will likely clear for a while this evening, but then expect some more to develop/move into the area later tonight as a cold front pushes into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front will cross the forecast area during the morning. High pressure will start to build in Tuesday night. Drier and cooler conditions will filter in with lows dropping into the 50s.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain hotter than normal temperatures over the region. The high will weaken slightly through mid-week allowing for slight cooling and a continued chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
There will be a return to a more normal convective pattern by mid-week in the wake of Isaias as a broad, longwave trough persists across the eastern United States. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs ranging form the lower-mid 90s each afternoon with lows in the lower- mid 70s, except upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. A mid-level trough will persist over the East Coast while a stationary front hovers over or near area.
945 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight, as low pressure moves east across the lower Great Lakes. The low will move northeast of the region Tuesday, bringing a trough east across the area.
High pressure will keep fairly light winds and seas across the region through the next several days.
542 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 As anticipated, another round of showers and thunderstorms have formed along the higher terrain with some convection drifting into adjacent valleys. Tuesday, more of the same as high pressure remains overhead.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 88 68 90 68 / 50 30 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 86 67 88 67 / 30 30 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 85 66 88 66 / 30 40 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 83 63 86 64 / 20 40 10 50 10.
818 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight, as low pressure moves east across the lower Great Lakes. The low will move northeast of the region Tuesday, bringing a trough east across the area.
Warmer weather returns for the weekend. Tonight a broad trough will start to move into the region, which will lead to falling heights on Tuesday.
At the surface, a weak cold front remains just east of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, expect a mild summer-like night over the TN Valley, with mostly clear skies and temps in the lower 60s.
An upper trough and frontal zone will continue to move eastward Tuesday causing a few showers and storms mainly east of I-65. This will be followed by a few dry days with cooler than normal temps and slightly lower than usual humidity levels for August.
Latest HRRR for this afternoon and evening, seems to have the highest thunderstorm coverage over western and southern portions of the Denver area, moving most of those storms into the Palmer Divide by early this evening.
/issued 320 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ Latest surface analysis places a weak cold front just east of Paducah, Kentucky extending southwest through Tunica, Mississippi and back through the ArkLaTex. With the main trough axis swinging through overnight, stratus is expected to build in across the northeast half of the forecast area.
High pressure over the southwest United States provides dry and warm conditions today before breaking down this week as a low pressure slowly encroaches upon Nevada.
/DL/ An anomalous longwave trough remains draped across the Mississippi Valley with a surface cold front analyzed over northwest Mississippi as of 9pm. A broad high pressure ridge is building over the Plains From the Dakotas south into OK, and Tropical Storm Isaias is moving up the east coast of the CONUS. Although cooler and drier air is filtering into the region, mid and low level moisture is still enough for the development of a cu field by mid morning.
407 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light south winds of less than 10 mph, temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s along the island chain. A western Atlantic ridge axis will be aligned across the Sunshine State through the period. Despite no discernible large scale ascent, a couple of low level minor undulations undercutting the ridge axis along with ample moisture will prompt above normal rain chances which are already in the grids.
As the central CONUS upper trough shifts east, this zone of forcing aloft will shift east as well. A storm complex originating from afternoon storms on the High Plains should stay west of our area where the better low level instability will be located. Went slightly below blended guidance (NBM), favoring the cooler CONShort for highs.
Strong moisture advection will continue through the low and mid- levels, as well as sufficient instability (widespread MUCAPE >1500 J/kg).
Breezy and slightly cooler temperatures are on tap for Tuesday, along with weak lingering precipitation again across the northeast corner. Upper trough deepens along Pacific coast, shifting inland slightly on Wednesday.
This ridge will become cut off by westerly to southwesterly H5 winds across the northern and central Plains. The highest rainfall totals are expected to occur from the southern portions of the Devils Lake Basin southward into the James Valley and will generally be around one half inch.
Temperatures on Wednesday will feature highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows around 60. Still, with the axis of the low-level jet displaced well west, such a complex of storms would likely miss SE Kansas and SW Missouri to the south and west.
Some mid level clouds were found along the highway 20 corridor and in parts of southeast IA and northeast MO temporarily keeping those areas slightly warmer. Canadian high pressure will provide the area with pleasant fall-like weather today. With the Canadian high pressure building overhead by evening, winds will be relatively light out of the north. Temperatures will be on the cool side again, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
1228 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2020 As anticipated, another round of showers and thunderstorms have formed along the higher terrain with some convection drifting into adjacent valleys. Tuesday, more of the same as high pressure remains overhead. Wednesday will see the Pacific trough push inland across the west coast, ushering the area of high pressure east towards the Texas/New Mexico border. The weakening of the high, plus the shift of its axis eastward, will bring an end to the triple digit heat for the majority of the forecast area.
Slightly cooler conditions are also expected today, with warmer temperatures returning for the second half of the work week. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today in comparison to previous days, with the plains and valleys topping out in the lower 80s for highs today. Skies should also be clear thanks to building high pressure, and winds should generally be on the light side. This cooldown will not last for long, as a transient upper level ridge begins to build into the area during the middle of the week.
202 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast across eastern portions of North Carolina through Tuesday morning. Tropical cyclone Isaias made landfall as a hurricane just before midnight near Ocean Isle Beach with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
Still looking like the day's best shower and thunderstorm chances will come beginning in the mid to late afternoon hours when the low to mid 90s convective temperatures are reached, and they will possible continue into the early evening hours.
With the low level jet focused across western Kansas veering into central Kansas late in the night the bulk of convection should remain to the west and southwest of the CWA. Lows tonight will range from the 50s in northeast and east central Kansas to the lower 60s in north central Kansas. Elevated convection Wednesday night across western Kansas again looks to remain near of just west of the CWA within the low to mid level moisture axis and will maintain low pops in north central Kansas.
1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure is expected to move into the region, leading to a quiet short term. The next chance for rain will be Wednesday, as an upper level trough is likely to move through the southwestern portion of the CWA.
152 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A cold front will drift eastward across the region through sunrise reaching the Ohio/Pennsylvania border shortly after sunrise. A reinforcing surge of cooler air will cross the region during the evening.
High pressure will return sunshine and warm temperatures on Wednesday. Most of the shower activity is confined to the leading edge of upper level heights falls occurring on the eastern side of a Midwestern trough. The trough is making little eastward progress as it battles the upper level portion of Isaias. The trough will eventually win the battle before dawn and the associated heights falls will begin to pass through the region. Building high pressure will return dry conditions tonight and Wednesday. Broad upper troughing will support slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions for Wednesday.
Winds aloft become more anticyclonic tonight and especially on Wednesday as an upper ridge expands east from Far West Texas. This improved gradient wind will shove the sea breeze farther inland on Wednesday allowing for slightly cooler highs nearest the coast, but elsewhere heat indices are forecast to ratchet up to 105-107 for a few hours.
Fairly weak westerly flow aloft will persist through the overnight before turning southwest Tuesday as ridging builds over ID/MT and troughing over the northern CA coast.
/issued 437 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ An upper trough will advance through the eastern states as Tropical Storm Isaias ejects northeast along the eastern Seaboard. Highs both today and Tuesday should be in the lower to mid 90s, with lows around 75-80, except a few degrees warmer along the Atlantic coast. The overall pattern keeps a 500mb trough over the eastern United States, although a 500mb ridge does build over the western Atlantic and looks to undercut the trough, allowing some 500mb height rises over South Florida for the latter half of the week.
SBCAPE values were still in the 2500 range and an upper cold trough was located overhead. Dry air exist over much of the central sections but another small, relative moisture pool was along the next cold front back over Mississippi. The 500mb trough axis remains centered over the region into the day on Tuesday with another surface front poised to move into the southeast following the departure of Isaias.
Otherwise, a general troughing pattern is expected to linger across the area. High temperatures will warm up as southerly flow kicks in on the back side of the ridge and as the upper level pattern begins to flatten across the area.
Given current temperatures in the lower 50s, it seems likely that some locations in Loess Hills will fall into the upper 40s by 6 AM. The slight potential for a thunderstorm that began Tuesday night will linger, as trough in the Dakotas pushes a weak frontal boundary toward northeast Nebraska. The End Of The Week An upper level ridge building east from the Desert Southwest will be the predominate weather feature late this week.
Wile most will remain in the upper 40 to low 50 range, some typical cool spots in NW MN closer to the center of high pressure may dip into the mid 40s. High pressure will move slowly to the east tonight and tomorrow, with winds shifting to the southeast. An upper level low centered near James Bay will fill a bit as the upper level ridge over the intermountain west begins to build. an upper level trof will propagate through the flow providing enough instability to trigger shower activity across the region.
341 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure continues to hang around the area resulting in another gorgeous day.
1041 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in spectacular, fall-like weather to continue tonight into mid-week. Summer-like weather finally returns by the end of the work week as high pressure slides off to the east, and moisture streams back into the area.
High pressure building into the region from the west will lead to light winds overnight. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with quiet weather expected.
For Tuesday, the base of the upper level trough will rotate through the area and advect deep layer dry air into the region from the northwest. A broad upper trough remains over the eastern half of the country Tuesday night with whatever is left of Isaias all the way into the northeast by this time. Winds aloft turn more southwesterly on Wednesday with a cold front moving into our SE AL counties. However, with the drying NW flow and with the trough pulling back to the north, the front will stall and rain chances remain around 30% or less. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery this morning reveals robust troughing across the eastern CONUS that extends into the northern Gulf of Mexico, while the subtropical ridge remains situated just to our east in the latest 06Z WPC surface analysis. With that said, ample moisture in place, sufficient daytime heating, lifting mechanisms via mesoscale boundaries, and the proximity of the trough axis to the region indicate the atmosphere remains ripe for convective initiation today and tomorrow. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will soar each day into the lower 90s and only drop into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 along the east coast overnight.
1154 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 As anticipated, another round of showers and thunderstorms have formed along the higher terrain with some convection drifting into adjacent valleys. Tuesday, more of the same as high pressure remains overhead. Wednesday will see the Pacific trough push inland across the west coast, ushering the area of high pressure east towards the Texas/New Mexico border. The weakening of the high, plus the shift of its axis eastward, will bring an end to the triple digit heat for the majority of the forecast area.
otherwise high pressure centered over the wrn Gulf remains anchored over the region. Water vapor imagery continues to show troffing from the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley with a few embedded disturbances, the nearest of which is seen crossing wrn/cntl TX at this time. Repeat for Wednesday albeit with maybe more convection farther inland with another impulse driving swd through the trof. For the weekend, the trof is progged to lift nwd, keeping significant impulses away from the area.
1029 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Cool Canadian high pressure across the area leading to below normal temperatures and light winds. Temperatures also increase through the week as upper ridge across the west slowly moves east.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 68 90 68 91 / 40 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 88 67 88 / 40 10 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 88 66 88 / 40 10 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 63 86 64 85 / 40 10 50 10 60.