Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
629 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A mostly dry cold front will move through the area today with only a slight chance for some very light rain. Much cooler conditions will follow with frost possible Friday night. A mostly dry cold front will move through from northwest to southeast today. Breezy northeast winds will follow this front, and temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler than yesterday. Clearing skies tonight will allow for even colder conditions, with lows forecast to be in the low 40s. Upper troughing over the eastern US will allow cool and dry northwest flow aloft to continue into the first half of the weekend, with much below normal temperatures. Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s on Friday, with overnight lows now forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
558 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Cool and dry weather with breezy northeast winds can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Cold front has reached approximately I-70 early this morning with north winds developing behind the front and cooler, drier air moving in from the north. Cloud cover behind the front should start to decrease by afternoon as influence of high pressure approaching from the NW increases.
Some spots in the far northeastern counties may see enough clear skies and light winds to drop near freezing again, but uncertainty is high and with current headlines going will leave anything for tonight off for now. Warmer temperatures are expected through a majority of the period as well.
Heading into the weekend, dry weather is expected as an upper level ridge currently over the western U.
944 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Cool and dry weather with breezy northeast winds can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Area of stratus/stratocumulus behind the cold front has been pushing southward this morning, but only extends north to about I-80. Cold front has reached approximately I-70 early this morning with north winds developing behind the front and cooler, drier air moving in from the north. Cloud cover behind the front should start to decrease by afternoon as influence of high pressure approaching from the NW increases.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 66 78 60 75 / 50 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 63 74 57 74 / 100 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 63 75 55 75 / 50 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 60 69 53 72 / 100 30 20 10 10 NC.
Also a risk of freezing temps may develop across Osceola and Clare Counties.
Across low elevations, temps will be in the upper 70s and low 80s and low to mid 70s across the higher elevations today. Today, southwest winds are expected to remain fairly light with the pesky ridge of high pressure remaining over the region for now. A weather system is poised to slide in from the west, which will push the ridge out of the region.
Currently have afternoon highs similar to Thursday, with temperatures slightly cooler over central SD. Heading into the weekend, expect temperatures to gradually warm back into the upper 70s to mid 80s, as mid/upper level ridge slides overhead the region. Given the warmer temperatures, drier dewpoints, and breezy conditions in play, would be surprised to see a bump in our fire weather potential, so will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.
1030 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Central Florida will be in between the remnants of Sally, moving northeast through central Georgia, and subtropical ridge axis to the south. Fewer high clouds across the area today, should provide sufficient heating for highs to reach the low 90s.
The clouds have also wreaked havoc with temperatures in some areas, including parts of the ongoing Frost Advisory area, where some readings are warmer than anticipated. Highs today will be cool, ranging from the middle 50s northwest to the lower to middle 60s southeast.
High pressure over the southwest will also shift east encompassing more of the combined Panhandles by Friday night as well. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s across the Panhandles. The current run of the experimental RAP for vertically integrated smoke depicts quite a bit of smoke moving clockwise around the northwest quadrant of the high pressure system over the Panhandles and surrounding areas as well.
651 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday through the weekend. A cold front in the lower Great Lakes will push south into the area through the day. GEFS and EPS ensembles show near to a bit below normal H5 heights to begin the period under the northeast upper trough.
A Pacific low pressure system is still on track to push into Oregon Friday afternoon. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge coupled with a strong gradient should allow the atmosphere to mix Friday afternoon and provide some relief from the smoke and haze. A fire weather watch is still in effect for southwest Montana due to dry, windy, and unstable conditions expected as the ridge breaks down Friday afternoon.
810 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall. A cooler air mass will overspread the area on Friday, and remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, only isolated showers are foreseen, mainly north of I-80, and along the far southeastern ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into this evening along the ridges. A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region by Friday, once again driving temperatures below normal.
A weak cold front trailing to the southwest of Sally has pushed through the Florida Panhandle, a welcome break to the heat and humidity for those without power. Between the ridge and the cold front, a line of thunderstorms stretches from the central Gulf of Mexico to near Cedar Key. First, the low-level flow will remain anticylonic along the ridge axis. From synopsis, a western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the southern half of Florida, will sag southward to near the Florida Keys tonight through Friday night.
This will also bring dewpoints down as the week goes on making it at least bearable during the afternoons with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Early this morning, the synoptic regime was characterized by a Hudson Bay low, northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and another upper low off the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered over southern Manitoba, with calm winds and a mid-level cloud deck extending from the northwest corner through the north central, and down to the northern James River Valley. Quiet and dry on Friday with high pressure off to our east, with breezy southeasterly winds and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Increasing southwest winds aloft Thursday and Friday will bring gusty conditions over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
/issued 531 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this period, as deep tropical moisture combines with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough digging into the Lone Star State.
1022 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday through the weekend. A cold front is draped across northern Ohio and will gradually move southward today. Cirrus blowoff from Sally over the southeastern counties will linger throughout the day, with a surge of stratocumulus working its way into the northwestern fa ahead of the cold front. GEFS and EPS ensembles show near to a bit below normal H5 heights to begin the period under the northeast upper trough.
Otherwise, expect high temperatures to reach into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 60s for tonight.
526 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows a weak, elongated upper trough axis is centered over west Texas and extends into central Oklahoma, with a large upper ridge over the western US. Models show the trough continuing to drift southward and weaken through the day. Highs should generally be in the low to mid 80s areawide this afternoon. Other feature of interest today will be wildfire smoke that once again looks to enter the area as steering flow aloft around the upper ridge to our west brings a smoke plume southward into our area.
Ridging aloft prevails again today with a warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 12 Celsius. The ridge axis aloft moves overhead, continuing the dry weather with limited low and mid level moisture.
Currently have afternoon highs similar to Thursday, with temperatures slightly cooler over central SD. Heading into the weekend, expect temperatures to gradually warm back into the upper 70s to mid 80s, as mid/upper level ridge slides overhead the region. Given the warmer temperatures, drier dewpoints, and breezy conditions in play, wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in our fire weather potential, so will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.
549 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front is currently stretched across the forecast area from central Oklahoma through central Missouri into central Illinois, and is expected to exit the area by 12-15Z. High pressure will build in behind the front at the surface and in the lower-levels, while aloft northwest flow will persist into the weekend. Temperatures today will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but the coolest temperatures will arrive on Friday. Even the warmest guidance indicate temperatures will be at least 5 degrees cooler than normal.
Another nice day is expected as we remain on the front side of an upper ridge. This will be the force behind the cold front that will move through the CWA today. Highs should make it to the low 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure keeps things uneventful. Expect noticeably cooler and breezy conditions as northeast winds advect cooler, drier air into the region.
A weak short wave trough moving through the northeast flow aloft will slide overhead later this morning into the afternoon. However, we will be on the back side of a larger trough at 250mb which will place the region in a broad area of subsident air. This will act to keep temperatures a few degrees lower with surface ridging building into the area. The sky grids were increased to around 50 percent coverage to account for the high altitude smoke plume advecting into the region.
We will favor the highest rain chances across the above mentioned areas for today. The broad upper trough will begin to slide east of the region on Friday and with drier air in the mid-levels moving in from the north, rain chances will be on the decrease compared to Thursday.
A weak cold front will develop from the panhandle into the western Sandhills this afternoon as a slightly cooler airmass exists north and east of the area. Highs today were lowered slightly across the north and east from near 75 at O'Neill and 79 at Valentine, while warmest in the low to mid 80s west and southwest. This will continue to bring cooler highs in the mid 70s areas east of Valentine through Brewster, while warmest across the southwest in the low to mid 80s.
642 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Clear skies and light winds are in place this morning with high pressure centered over northern Minnesota. Farther east in Wisconsin, nearly steady temperatures in the low to mid 40s have lessened the threat from Polk to Rusk counties, therefore the Frost Advisory was cancelled there. This patchy overcast has cast doubt on frost formation again tonight and models are considerably warmer in spots, despite high pressure centered over northeastern MN and northern WI.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this period, as deep tropical moisture combines with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough digging into the Lone Star State.
An upper level low offshore will approach the coast tonight before moving inland Friday, bringing more widespread shower chances, and even some thunderstorms, to portions of Western Washington.
551 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE High pressure building southeast into NM today will lead to tranquil weather conditions for much of the state.
523 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall. A cooler air mass will overspread the area on Friday, and remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, only isolated showers are foreseen, mainly north of I-80, and along the far southeastern ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into this evening along the ridges. A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region by Friday, once again driving temperatures below normal.
A Pacific low pressure system is still on track to push into Oregon Friday afternoon. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge coupled with strong gradient should allow the atmosphere to mix Friday afternoon and provide some relief from the smoke and haze. A fire weather watch is still in effect for southwest Montana due to dry, windy, and unstable conditions expected as the ridge breaks down Friday afternoon.
Southeast to south breezes are gentle, skies are sunny, high temperatures are in the lower 90s, and the KBYX radar is echo free.
1211 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front is currently stretched across the forecast area from central Oklahoma through central Missouri into central Illinois, and is expected to exit the area by 12-15Z. High pressure will build in behind the front at the surface and in the lower-levels, while aloft northwest flow will persist into the weekend. Temperatures today will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but the coolest temperatures will arrive on Friday. Even the warmest guidance indicate temperatures will be at least 5 degrees cooler than normal.
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low over eastern portions of Hudson Bay. A trough extended south of this feature into the eastern Great Lakes. Further west, high pressure was anchored over southern California with a ridge extending north into southeastern British Columbia. West of this ridge axis, closed low pressure remained anchored off the coast of Oregon and has remained there over the past 24 hours. A trough of low pressure extended south of this low into the eastern Pacific-off the coast of northern California. At the surface, low pressure was located over south central South Dakota. A warm front extended south of the low into the western Nebraska Sandhills, then south along the Kansas/Colorado border.
1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows a weak, elongated upper trough axis is centered over west Texas and extends into central Oklahoma, with a large upper ridge over the western US. Models show the trough continuing to drift southward and weaken through the day. Highs should generally be in the low to mid 80s areawide this afternoon. Other feature of interest today will be wildfire smoke that once again looks to enter the area as steering flow aloft around the upper ridge to our west brings a smoke plume southward into our area.
1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Updated aviation discussion for 18Z taf issuance Heading into the weekend, dry weather is expected as an upper level ridge currently over the western U.
1243 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A mostly dry cold front will move through the area today with only a slight chance for some very light rain. Much cooler conditions will follow with frost possible Friday night. A mostly dry cold front will move through from northwest to southeast today. Breezy northeast winds will follow this front, and temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler than yesterday. Clearing skies tonight will allow for even colder conditions, with lows forecast to be in the low 40s. Upper troughing over the eastern US will allow cool and dry northwest flow aloft to continue into the first half of the weekend, with much below normal temperatures. Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s on Friday, with overnight lows now forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s as high pressure dominates the region. This will bring fairly cooler temperatures again Friday night with better potential for frost across much of the CWA, however the expected coverage is uncertain at this point.
The threat of lake shore flooding has remained on the low side through the day, with waves hovering around 5 feet per area buoy reports.
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Quiet conditions are expected through the duration of the forecast period as ridging remains entrenched over the central CONUS.
1119 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Issued a Frost Advisory for bog/sand country of central WI tonight where temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 30s. The highest concentrations will be along and south of Interstate 90. Low temperatures will be in the 30s in north-central Wisconsin and in the lower to mid-30s elsewhere.
247 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Dry air within a mid to upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest has resulted in quiet weather across Colorado today. Our forecast area will be under the influence of the aforementioned ridge again tomorrow. This will increase southerly flow and bring in slightly warmer low level air. Highs tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today with highs reaching the upper 80s in Denver. Forecast period will start with most of Colorado remaining under the influence of an upper level ridge.
The subtropical ridge will build back into the central U. AC3 /18z TAFs/ A Cu field around 3 kft AGL will continue to gradually shift south ahead of the cold front currently moving through the Mid- South.
120 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A crossing cold front this afternoon and tonight will have too little moisture for rain in most cases. Behind it, a cooler air mass will overspread the area and remain in place through the weekend. A cold front is currently entering the CWA from the northwest as seen on satellite loops and surface obs. The higher terrain could see a shower as well with help from upslope. As a cooler and drier air mass starts to filter into the region, temperatures will bottom out a few degrees below normal northwest of Pittsburgh, and closer to climatology elsewhere. along with upper troughing, will continue the dry and cool pattern through the short term period.
Mid/upper level ridge axis moves toward the region for the weekend and should support a more notable warming trend.
Early this weekend another cold front will bring in much cooler and drier air to the region.
just a couple of degrees cooler than last night. A front finally moves through the region on Friday which will advect a much cooler and drier airmass into the area.
Dry conditions will continue throughout the period as weak ridging aloft shifts slowly east out of the Great Basin into the Central/Southern Rockies and the Western High Plains. Developing lee side troughing will strengthen in eastern Colorado Friday resulting in a more southerly flow across western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 80s(F).
This will promote slightly warmer temperatures Friday.
1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Issued a Frost Advisory for bog/sand country of central WI tonight where temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 30s. The highest concentrations will be along and south of Interstate 90. Low temperatures will be in the 30s in north-central Wisconsin and in the lower to mid-30s elsewhere.
1117 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
1149 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall. A cooler air mass will overspread the area on Friday, and remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, only isolated showers are foreseen, mainly north of I-80, and along the far southeastern ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into this evening along the ridges. A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region by Friday, once again driving temperatures below normal.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 78 60 75 58 / 10 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 74 57 74 55 / 10 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 75 55 75 54 / 10 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 69 53 72 49 / 30 20 10 10 0 NC.
Convection in the process of becoming scattered across south Texas as the mid to upper level trough moves into the region from the northwest. The mid to upper trough will be located along the coast for Friday. The upper level jet on the back side of the trough producing convection over Coahuila. The mid to upper trough will continue to move east-southeast into central Texas southwest into northeast Mexico this afternoon.
202 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday through the weekend. A cold front is draped across northern Ohio and will gradually move southward today. Cirrus blowoff from Sally over the southeastern counties will linger throughout the day, with a surge of stratocumulus working its way into the northwestern fa ahead of the cold front. GEFS and EPS ensembles show near to a bit below normal H5 heights to begin the period under the northeast upper trough.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low to mid level clouds are covering some areas of mostly northwestern lower Michigan and parts of northeast lower as a trough moves in ahead of the high pressure center building off to our west. Current forecast is for clouds to diminish, winds to decouple, and hence, temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for most inland locations and closer to the upper 40s to low 50s near the Lake Michigan and northern Lake Huron coasts with a northerly flow advecting warmer temperatures from over the warmer water.
On Friday, the main story (other than ongoing river flooding) will be a cold front pushing into the state. Otherwise, tomorrow will mark the onset of a period of very fall-like weather as cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints begin to filter southward.
/issued 1104 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Latest surface analysis places a cold front from Louisville, Kentucky back through Union City, Tennessee and southwest through Jonesboro, Arkansas. North of our CWA, another reinforcing cold front is pushing through Saint Louis. Forecast looks good, with temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /issued 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Current morning temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with northerly winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise to the low to mid 80s, with mostly sunny skies. By this afternoon cold front will approach northern portions of the Mid-South. By the weekend a ridge will build in keeping lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to low 70s.
High pressure over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward tonight which will allow our winds to turn from northerly to southerly. Beat The center of an upper level ridge over southern New Mexico will expand northeastward to cover much of the south-central U.