Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
147 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure is beginning to drift east/southeast of the region, and is allowing a stronger pressure gradient to arrive. Although guidance does continue to hold onto the elevated heights through tonight, before the upstream trough nudges east. Breezy south winds to 25 kts through Tue will be likely, as strong low pressure system slowly crosses south central Canada. Once the low moves lifts into eastern Canada the middle of the week, expect winds to diminish to 20 kts or less as pressure gradient weakens.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures to begin the new workweek. Another clear and chilly night is in store, though several degrees warmer than last night on average. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky for the foreseeable future. Day time highs are expected to top out at or slightly above normal today and tomorrow, with max readings in the low to mid 70s forecast for today and the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The mid level ridge will peak by mid week over the Southeast while deep and broad troughing pushes through the Bitterroots and into the Northern Plains.
135 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
An upper level trough will exit the area by sinking south tonight. Dry north flow will develop on Monday and continue through the week with a ridge over the area. models do remain consistent taking the upper level ridge responsible for this autumn weather sample to the south. allowing for W WA to come under the influence of the upper level ridge out over the Pacific waters. or perhaps a degree or two warmer.
This will result in warmer temperatures with lows in the 60s and even a few lower 70s in the southeast. 79 A deep upper trough will continue to spin across the western half of the CONUS early this week while an amplified ridge dominates the east.
343 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will be in control of our weather for the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Mainly clear skies will continue Monday night though not as cold with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
156 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through the first half of the week. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
High temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 90s, while heat index readings reach the 105-110 degree range.
Still a fair amount of activity over the eastern zones as an inverted trough lingers near the New Mexico border. This may need to issued again for Thursday, as the aforementioned trough continues to influence the area.
927 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A weak upper level low over will drift slowly east and out into the Atlantic tonight.
Despite broad ridging aloft covering much of the southern US, scattered convection is ongoing as of writing across the Victoria Crossroads, with isolated activity struggling to develop across the Southern Coastal Bend. Temperatures is expected to be slightly warmer than today by a degree or two, with heat index values yet again ranging from 105 to 109 across much of South Texas, especially across the Coastal Plains.
High pressure will weaken over the weekend which should allow surface winds to increase as the pressure gradient tightens.
The main cold front looks to be hung up along our northern counties, while a prefrontal trough/dryline has moved east across the southeast Wyoming counties. Winds in the wake of this trough have become more of a north/northeast direction likely a result of some terrain forcing as well. The cold front looks to push south and weaken overnight, but still may initiate a few showers through the early morning hours. Temperatures for tomorrow will also be a bit cooler, but readings will still be hot. Forecast soundings illustrate a moderately unstable environment with a weak cap in place, so would imagine convection will develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, and shift east across the forecast area through the evening.
705 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Central Plains with strong zonal flow over the Northern plains. Otherwise, a slow moving front extends east across eastern South Dakota from low pressure centered over southwestern South Dakota. The ongoing MCS has complicated the surface pattern slightly, but as the low continues to slowly sink south, convection continues to bubble over south central SD.
518 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days. A few models show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our north/northeast. Models are actually showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few decrees warmer Thursday than today.
This cloud cover has kept the temperatures cooler by a few degrees, but most locations should reach their respective high temperatures. Isentropic lift driven showers and storms should not be an issue tonight as most of the soundings show drier air in the lower levels. Tomorrow will not be much different from today besides less clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. The highs are expected to be around 98-105 with heat indices 105-112 across the entire area.
Overnight will be muggy with lows in the lower 70s.
1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The mean layer analyses from CIMSS, in conjunction with loops from GOES-16 water vapor imagery, indicate a barbell of deep ridging across the southern Plains and the western North Atlantic. In between the two anticyclones, an upper level low is digging south near the Atlantic Bight, consistent with the meager height falls (00Z RAOB analyses) across Florida. The surface pattern features a splintered ridge consisting of a node across the Gulf of Mexico, and the parent high parked over the central North Atlantic. This evening's KKEY sounding sampled increased moisture and decreased static stability in the lower troposphere, compared to this morning. A weak pressure pattern will persist for a few more days, before a subtropical ridge builds slowly westward and northward.
The forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward propagating cold front.
Quite a bit of subsidence behind the main short wave trough is east of our area inhibiting lift despite modest temp recover into the 75-80 range in E ND and dew pts in the mid 60s. Mostly sunny Thursday with temps close to the normal values and light winds as well due to high pressure moving in.
1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Main challenge is how many ways to say HOT! The upper ridge will hold sway over the area through the end of the week with the low levels continuing to gradually warm day over day.
Mostly cloudy skies from debris cloud cover will gradually decrease into late tonight, becoming partly cloudy, and lows expected in the low to mid 70s for most locations. A weak trough over the panhandle will press into the north peninsula, keeping the Bermuda ridge axis surpressed over south FL/north Bahamas.
746 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the above mentioned cooler air aloft.
High pressure aloft dominating most of the central and southern Plains.
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region through Thursday. No precipitation is expected through Thursday due to subsidence beneath the ridge.
745 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakens today, with increasing heat and humidity, and mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Thursday, strengthening upper ridge and warmer low level temperatures should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer. Weak High pressure will gradually shift southward but continuing to pump warm air and moisture up over the region.
For tonight, high pressure will continue to build into the area from the Central Plains and will become centered just to our northwest by tomorrow morning. On Thursday, the main headline will once again be heat stress issues with the ridge being the main influence on our weather. And finally, subsidence associated with ridging will act to limit convection and confine low end coverage to our far south along the Hwy 84 corridor Thursday afternoon.
1055 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Seabreeze moving through our extreme SE sections combined with the arrival of some steeper lapse rates from upper low has resulted in some late developing severe storms. Ridging aloft over the Tennessee Valley should prohibit convection and will continue a dry forecast for north Georgia for Thursday.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with the impending arrival of the dry cold front to help cool temperatures a few degrees on Thursday.
The heat will continue to build over the next couple days with high pressure ridge anchored over the south central United States.
We think the GFS might be most correct, as the convection over southern Minnesota at 20Z may inhibit the northward return of the surface warm front, and may keep deeper moisture from moving north.
High pressure is expected to hold over the waters through the remainder of the week.
Upper air analysis revealed a large anti-cyclonic circulation over the Central Plains with ridge axis extending southeast to the Mid South and lower Mississippi valley. In addition, the pesky trough axis remain along the Eastern Seaboard with some indication of cyclonic curvature over eastern Carolinas. Northerly flow on the front side of upper level high and flow over the backside of the east coast trough will push dry some dry air over the area through Thursday night.
Did maintain partly cloudy conditions in the grids for much of the overnight hours across E TX/SE OK as some pooling of theta-e rotating around the H850 ridge over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley may occur, resulting in some redevelopment in the cu field. The center of the H850-700 ridge remains progged to shift a tad SE across the heart of the region Thursday, thus limiting the afternoon mixing of dewpoints as temps climb into the mid and upper 90s once again.
915 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area this evening followed by high pressure on Thursday.
Large dome of high pressure aloft will continue to stretch all the way from the eastern Rockies east through the mid MS River Valley. The H50 ridge will also serve to cap the atmosphere, so do not even expect the normal pop up of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.
Ridging aloft over the Tennessee Valley should prohibit convection and will continue a dry forecast for north Georgia for Thursday.
1037 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Subtropical moisture is edging nwd today and this will accelerate tonight into Thursday as the ridge expands nwd and a surge of associated low to mid level moisture lifts nwd from UT and CO. Back to tonight's surge: Dew points have risen in the last 24 hours to the south from a few degrees to as much as 6-8 degrees and this higher pw air (around an inch) is headed nwd.
These storms have started to take a little more east-southeast turn recently as it follows the warm front from near the southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa border and stretches back to north of Waterloo. Storms will be mostly east of the area by Thursday morning and the boundary will shift southward to south of the Highway 20 corridor.
Storms developed on western edge of dry slot which pushed west as an inverted trof was moving west across southern New Mexico/Texas Big Bend and Chihuahua MX. Due to this inverted trof it was also quite active across southern New Mexico where a rather strong thunderstorm outflow boundary was produced, which led to a dust storm moving across SW NM earlier this evening and prompted a dust storm warning for the far eastern areas which expired at 8 pm.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period. /Issued 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Strong upper high currently located directly over the region will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern.
K9V9/KFSD model soundings suggest MLCAPE of 3,000+ J/kg trough late this evening, along with strong deep layer shear of 45 to 55 knots. Quasi-zonal upper level winds continue to prevail in response to the high pressure centered over the south/central plains.
Temperatures slowly climb into the weekend as an upper level trough pattern slowly transitions into a weak upper level ridge over the region.
An upper level low over Mexico could bring another surge of moisture across the region tonight, possibly bringing a low end chance of shower activity after midnight right along the Rio Grande and over the lower Valley. /issued 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging settling over the Southern Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will provide the backdrop for a general decrease in convective potential over the next 24 hours. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 70s to near 80 while daytime high temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to near the century mark out west.
Jaszka A weak disturbance moving through the ridge may spark a few thunderstorms along the Hi-Line late tonight into Thursday morning.
As mid level flow increases to near 50 kt with the approaching trough, deep layer shear will escalate and support an organized severe threat into the evening hours as the surface front and/or outflow ploughs into the warm, humid unstable airmass over the immediate area.
525 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Classic monsoonal pattern in place featuring a low pressure trough over the West Coast and high pressure centered over the southern Plains. Conversely, highs on Thursday will remain a bit cooler than normal due partly to mostly cloudy conditions and scattered to numerous showers.
924 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated in the days ahead, as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot and humid conditions late this week through the weekend. Rather weak and amorphous pressure pattern will prevail through the near term with the Bermuda ridge extending westward across the Carolinas and a weak but persistent lee-side trough extending across the Carolina foothills. A warming trend commences on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values of around 100F. Two upper ridges, one centered over the western Atlantic and the other over MO "reconnect" Thursday night as upper low retrogrades south and west into JAX. At the surface the gradient will be quite weak as we sit between two areas of high pressure.
1211 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area this evening followed by high pressure on Thursday.
724 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid conditions will continue across the local area through the short term periods with little relief in sight ahead of weak cold front across the Dakotas.
Further south and west towards the Pierre area, temperatures are beginning to nudge their way closer to the lower 90s this afternoon. As far as heat indices go, the rain-cooled boundary layer hasn't depleted the low level moisture any. Dewpoints are still in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region, but where temps are no longer expected to reach up into the upper 90s to low 100s, heat indices in the advisory area will only reach the marginal range at best, except for an area south of a line from Mission Ridge to Gann Valley where the combination of hot temperatures and high dewpoints should be able to push heat index readings up to 100 or better for a couple hours late this afternoon/early this evening.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period. The heat will continue to build over the next couple days with high pressure ridge anchored over the south central United States.
Hydro issues are not anticipated attm due to dry conditions leading to this event and the high flood guidance of the Sandhills. The forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward propagating cold front.
1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Central Plains with strong zonal flow over the Northern plains. Otherwise, a slow moving front extends east across eastern South Dakota from low pressure centered over southwestern South Dakota. The ongoing MCS has complicated the surface pattern slightly, but as the low continues to slowly sink south, convection continues to bubble over south central SD.
A weak disturbance moving through the ridge may spark a few thunderstorms along the Hi-Line late tonight into Thursday morning.
More substantial MCS activity was seen on the periphery of upper high within the band of stronger mid-level flow originating in Montana and now moving east-southeast through the Dakotas. The moisture distribution in the low levels of the sounding was slightly more favorable for mixing down of drier air today and this should result in lower dew points than was seen yesterday.
Otherwise, expect warming temperatures Thursday as a ridge tonight builds over the state. Thursday night, as SW flow aloft prevails, the low pressure system over British Columbia will help sustain strong to possibly severe storms for the eastern edge of Montana before quickly diminishing by midnight.
A bit of a break in the action for Thursday as models indicating high pressure moving in. Otherwise, a fairly warm/muggy day in tap with highs in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Storm chances return to areas mainly south of I-94 later Thursday night as low pressure over the Plains pulls that boundary back north as a warm front.
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Although the inverted trough has moved into Big Bend, it is still helping bring moisture into the region. The High pressure over the plains currently dominates the weather map with a low pressure/vorticity max across the Carolinas and the next trough riding up and over the ridge in the Pacific Northwest. This high pressure will also lead to a slow warm up today and tomorrow.
942 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure continues to be the story across the Southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 74 96 / 10 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 10.
Although a ridge of high pressure continues building into the region, it was unable to prevent some moderate CU and even a few isolated showers today. The deepest convection was once again confined to Central and East Texas, around the periphery of the ridge, where the coverage of showers and thunderstorms was similar to previous days. As the subsidence associated with the upper ridge steadily increases Thursday, the CU should be noticeably flatter. /Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Upper level ridge centered around the Tulsa area continues to be the main driver of our weather across North and Central Texas through the next couple of days.
/issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ The upper ridge remains anchored over the Central Plains today, maintaining easterly to southeasterly flow aloft over the region. The flow aloft along with southeasterly surface flow is maintaining ample moisture areawide, particularly across the higher terrain. Temperatures this afternoon are on target to top out in the middle to upper 90s for most, with 80s across the higher terrain, and lows tonight will drop into the 60s and 70s, similar to the past several nights.
An upper low will shift southwest along the South Carolina coast overnight, which will keep the region on the subsident side for Thursday.
1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region through Thursday. No precipitation is expected through Thursday due to subsidence beneath the ridge.
948 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry into Thursday afternoon. WNW flow aloft and weak high pressure near the surface controlling our weather in the near term. Still some evidence of a surface trof and upper wave in the south and east so isolated convection a possibility over the NEPA zones into tomorrow.
802 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry into Thursday, with clear skies tonight and patchy fog, and mostly sunny skies on Thursday. WNW flow aloft and weak high pressure near the surface controlling our weather in the near term. Still some evidence of a surface trof and upper wave in the south and east so isolated convection a possibility over the NEPA zones into tomorrow.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer this evening than compared to last night. Overall no major changes for Thursday's high temperatures from today's highs other than perhaps a degree or two cooler for some areas. Weak trough passing across the Pacific northwest has brought dry southwest flow aloft and a return to near normal temperatures across northern California. As trough across the Pacific northwest continues to slide northeastward, southwest flow aloft will remain with subtle rising heights as upper level high pressure continues to dominate the forecast.
Thursday night we won't see much relief from the heat as the center of the upper level ridge nudges closer to KY.
648 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain with a warm front north of Pittsburgh should end this evening. Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge Tuesday.
521 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Robust cold front is currently draped across the forecast area, stretched from Unionville, MO south-southwestward through Butler, MO. For this evening through overnight, the primary concern will be how far south and east the sub-freezing temperatures get, but with the cold front expected to retrograde and make a brief retreat back north and westward, it should keep the north side of KC warm enough to mitigate any significant icing issues. With temperatures already hovering around freezing at MCI, the other factor that should help mitigate significant icing issues will be how warm the surfaces, namely roads, are at the moment. As an upper-level trough inches closer to the region tomorrow, it'll give the front the push it needs to continue its eastward march it started today.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 858 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 (modified prev disc): Stout deep layer high pressure centered offshore the southeastern seaboard is producing a brisk low-mid level southeast wind flow, although the XMR evening sounding remains relatively dry in the mid levels due to subsidence effects from layered high pressure nearby. Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with an axis extending into the southeast U. Speeds are forecast 10-15 knots except over the cooler northern shelf waters (10 knots) and over the Gulf Stream (15-20 knots) where an exercise caution statement will be necessary.
/issued 536 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ For the Four State Region a wet weather pattern is coming as an upper longwave trough of low pressure becomes established over the Western parts of the country while an upper ridge remains over the the Eastern States and along and off the Atlantic Coast. This pattern will provide for abundant gulf moisture and a series of upper disturbances moving around the base of the trough and to the Northeast.