Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will remain on the mild side, generally in the middle 60s to lower 70s, though lows in the 50s are possible across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and across the Marfa Plateau. Lows to follow Friday night will also trend cooler than the past several nights, generally in the upper 50s and 60s.
Rain/storms ending this morning, then much cooler.
300 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Issued 300 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022) Today through Saturday: Warm frontal convection is off to our north with the better 925-850 frontogenesis. We will see the cold front work through from late morning through mid afternoon. There is very in the way of dynamics as the flow as largely southwest with the better DCVA off to our west ahead of the mid level trough axis. A secondary trough axis is proggd to move into the area tonight with only weak caa. The mid level trough will draw closer and ahead of the trough axis there will be a pronounced 200-300 millibar jet core with appreciable divergence associated with the right rear quadrant passing near our area.
1015 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 (This evening through Friday) Very hot temperatures are the rule across the area this afternoon, with highs once again reaching into the low to mid 100s across our southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties and 90s elsewhere. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning, reaching the I-44 corridor by late morning or early afternoon before stalling. Additional storms will be possible behind the cold front, especially across northeastern portions of the area, with these storms mainly posing a risk for hail due to their expected elevated nature. Fire weather concerns will continue today and tomorrow for our western north Texas counties behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
327 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022 High pressure will prevail today.
135 AM MDT Fri May 20 2022 A surface cold front was pushing through the forecast area at the moment with strong surface pressure rises over northern Montana. This will set the stage for a chilly night tonight with many locations dropping to and below freezing. It will continue to be cool on Saturday but be just a little warmer, with highs nosing into the lower to mid 50s.
Relatively dry conditions remain in the forecast today and tonight despite a broad scale upper level trough sinking southward across the entire Intermountain West, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. A strong attendant cold front pushing through western Kansas early this morning will bring an end to the brief brush with unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday, along with much drier air. However, the arrival of mid/upper level moisture associated with the broader scale trough combined with increased dynamic support aloft in the form of a strong jet core exiting same said trough axis, will set the stage for a few possible showers in west central/central Kansas later this evening. Much cooler air will spill into the area later today with H85 temperatures plummeting down into the teens(C) by late afternoon.
Not too much has changed since yesterday with the anticipated evolution of the slow moving cold front and associated convection. Low pressure in western Wisconsin will move northeast across Lake Superior today and a trailing cold front will move slowly east, such that by 21Z or so the front will be near the shoreline north of Muskegon. We're going to see a couple of low pressure waves move northeast along the front through Saturday night and each one will enhance chances for showers and storms.
A cold front will move into the northwest part of the area during the afternoon with a shift to northwest winds and a drop in temperature expected. Further to the north, though, clouds, rain, and cooler air will keep temperatures in the 60s.
Winds will be the main threat for the next few hours behind a cold front passing across the area. Expect isolated to scattered showers in our northwest flow at the surface as the main 500mb trough slides across the forecast area.
A cold front will begin to move into the region by mid-morning but should become stationary by the afternoon. /issued 252 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ The closed low currently over Baja California will continue its trek ESE across northern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Lee surface pressure falls shift to eastern New Mexico tomorrow out ahead of the aforementioned closed low over northern Mexico and a deepening broad synoptic trough to our north. An approaching long-wave upper level trough will bring a welcome cold front through the area early Saturday. Thus, we continue siding with cooler temperature guidance.
359 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Key Messages: - Lingering showers and storms today - Cooler this weekend Today: Lingering showers and storms will continue this morning along and behind the cold front currently passing over Southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. The cold front will clear the area around 12Z with precip chances really winding down by mid afternoon as the moisture gradient slides off to the southeast. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front keep today's highs in the mid 60s with northwest winds increasing in the afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 91 69 88 / 0 10 30 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 69 90 67 86 / 0 0 40 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 91 68 89 67 86 / 0 0 30 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 64 89 63 85 / 0 0 60 20 80.
As this low moves east into Kansas tonight, winds will shift to a more southerly direction and will likely maintain their strength, if not strengthen slightly. Another day of hot temperatures will be on tap for Friday, albeit "slightly cooler". The 850 mb thermal ridge axis will still cut north and east across the Big Country with max 850 mb temps in the 29-30 deg C range. As one moves further south and east, the thermal ridge weakens a bit and in response, surface temps will be slightly lower in the upper 90s to low 100s. Lift from this trough may interact with a weak dryline in our CWA and develop some convection.
Near the surface, a strong cold front is pushing southward across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. After midnight, a strong cold front will sweep through western Kansas and envelop the entire CWA by sunrise tomorrow. Wind speeds will be the highest shortly after fropa with a slight decrease as the day progresses.
High temperatures this afternoon will be eleven to thirteen degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon.
228 AM MDT Fri May 20 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: The low pressure system that has brought rain and snow over the past day will continue to move to the east and will exit our area by the early afternoon. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low will continue to move into the area bringing light rain and snow showers to the area. The Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations of the Little Rockies will be allowed to expire in the next few hours as there is no continuing threat of significant snowfall past the originally designated expiration time. Looking ahead, an upper level trough lingers over the area through the weekend.
Warm and moist sw flow aloft will continue into Saturday and Saturday night, as a weak cold front approaches very slowly from the west.
With upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS and high pressure centered just off the GA/FL coastline, expect another hot day across the Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs this afternoon will once again make it into the lower 90s.
Most significant update to the forecast is that the High Wind Warnings across Central and North-central Montana have been cancelled as of 0123z; however, gusts up to 40 mph have still possible during the evening hours. Temperatures trended a degree or so warmer, which has caused snowfall amounts at lower elevations to be reduced.
A longwave trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies will continue to influence our weather pattern over the next few days, strengthening onshore flow and deepening the marine layer. Cooler temperatures are in store Friday for all areas, with high temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than average over and west of the mountains.
A weak cold front will settle into northern Indiana tonight with a chance of showers and storms over northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.
By early afternoon, surface cold front expected to be near the southeasternmost CWA, effectively ending greatest strong thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures overnight expected to drop into the low to mid 30s area wide, despite cloud cover. A deep and broad upper level trof extends across the western two thirds of the country.
For tonight, an approaching trough will continue to bring breezy conditions, with the potential for strong downslope winds to the northeast of higher terrain. Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the low 40s to mid 50s across the majority of northern Arizona's High Country. An approaching trough is bringing gusty winds to the region, primarily north of the Mogollon Rim. Tomorrow, the base of the trough moves closer and heights fall, resulting in temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than today.
(Today) Mild and breezy conditions continue early this morning ahead of approaching cold front with southerly winds gusting at 25 to 35 mph. Although a few isolated gusts around 40 mph will be possible this morning, do not currently expect the higher gusts to become widespread.
Increasing clouds overnight as the low levels begin to moisten up. On Saturday, the lower levels remain moist and we could see the most rain coverage in over a week or so. Still looks like the highest rain chances will be in the south, where the best moisture will reside.
Mainly fair weather is expected through the weekend with cooler temperatures.
1049 PM MDT Thu May 19 2022 19z surface analysis had low over southeast SD with cold front into southeast WY. Attention then turns toward disposition of upper low spinning into northeast MT per water vapour this afternoon. Later tonight into Friday, upper low drops into northern MN, swinging well-defined cyclonic flow/upper trough into MT/WY/western SD. Result will be 1-3" of snow over the higher elevations with locally higher amounts possible given some high resolution model depictions. Probably don't even need much in the way of clearing for freezing temperatures, so have hoisted a Freeze Watch for all but south central SD.
With high pressure off the East Coast pumping warm, humid air northward ahead of a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, today will definitely feel like summer even though it's only May. The weekend starts off with a progressive upper-level pattern over the CONUS featuring a deep trough over the Intermountain West and an expansive upper level ridge along the US East Coast.
Drier weather will slowly give way to a more active pattern through the end of the week as the low level southerly flow regime continues across our area along the western periphery of low level ridging to our east. An upper ridge will build over the western Atlantic through the end of the week as well, slowing the progression of a broad upper trough sliding eastward over the northern Great Plains and south central Canada. This instability along with some steepness to the low level lapse rates, and locally higher DCAPE values given some drier air aloft could aid in a few storms capable of producing locally strong to damaging gusts and possibly at least some small hail with the stronger updrafts Saturday afternoon. With higher dewpoints up in the low 70s, heat indices will likely climb into the mid to upper 90s.
Mid/upper level ridging over the southeast CONUS will be weakening as the period starts. A weak wave moving in the flow around the ridge could result in a few shower/thunderstorms affecting mainly the southeast part of the area on Saturday evening.
331 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Key messages: - Potent cold front this morning carries gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures into this area this afternoon.
310 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A much cooler day ahead as a cold front raced through the region last night. Plenty of mid and high level clouds along with a west to northwest wind gusting to around 35 mph will bring a much cooler feel to the area compared to the very hot day yesterday. The low level thermal field only supports highs from roughly the mid 50s to mid 60s with a secondary shot of cool air wrapping in later this afternoon as the upper level jet drops southward a bit. Upper level troughiness gradually moves across the area through the weekend which will keep the below normal temperatures in place. That secondary shot of cooler air will bring temperatures down even more with most locations not climbing above the mid 50s on Saturday.
CAA will be rather strong will keep temperatures much cooler.
(Today and tonight) A decent late season cold front will bring much needed relief from an early dose of summer-like heat. The cold front, which is moving faster than most models are forecasting, will push through northwest Oklahoma by sunrise, and will continue to push southward through the day. This area will be more prone to active fire behavior before cooler and somewhat more humid conditions arrive for the weekend.
With the cold air in place, and light and variable winds under high pressure influence, if skies clear off, could be looking at another good candidate night for frost/freeze headlines.
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure remaining in control of the wrn Gulf region while low pressure lies over the TX Panhandle. Still looking at one more warm/dry day across the forecast area on Saturday as high pressure holds on to its grip. Friday night appears to be a carbon copy of tonight, but with even warmer temps as lows are progged to approach 10 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, the area will come under the squeeze of a weak wave moving nwwd over the Gulf and an approaching sfc trof crossing TX and the srn Plains.
S/SSW winds around 10 kts backing to SE 15 kts in the afternoon as the axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic lifts for C FL.
Weak upper level trough over the area through Saturday.
Low pressure area moving into the Great Basin this morning with a strong jet stream is increasing subsidence and pressure gradients over the region this morning. The low is also bringing in some cooler air which for today will bring temperatures down to near seasonal normals.
A digging trof over the western CONUS is evident on water vapor imagery this morning.
648 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Key Messages: - Lingering showers and storms today - Cooler this weekend Today: Lingering showers and storms will continue this morning along and behind the cold front currently passing over Southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. The cold front will clear the area around 12Z with precip chances really winding down by mid afternoon as the moisture gradient slides off to the southeast. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front keep today's highs in the mid 60s with northwest winds increasing in the afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out.
(Today and tonight) All eyes are looking northward toward the approaching cold front over the central Plains that should bring some relief to the scorching pattern across west central Texas this weekend.
Temperatures aloft will continue to drop Friday as 700mb temps bottom out around -10C Saturday morning as the upper trough continue to push through. Additionally, most areas outside of the North Platte River valley show >80% chance of minT dropping below the freezing mark off the latest NBM guidance. Cooler weather will continue Saturday with lingering rain/snow showers.
Gusty south winds will occur today, especially this morning with an approaching cold front.
Weak south to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the near term period as our region remains located between a building upper- level ridge over the Western Atlantic and troughing over the northern Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the Western Atlantic remains in control, allowing for southerly winds to be maintained throughout the period.
Winds aloft at the 700 mb level have already increased to 40-45 kts early this morning across northern Arizona as a deep trough is pushing southward toward the state. Winds will remain gusty into the late evening across east central Arizona ahead of a cold front associated with the trough. The weekend will remain breezy as the trough lingers just to our north.
618 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Today) Mild and breezy conditions continue early this morning ahead of approaching cold front with southerly winds gusting at 25 to 35 mph. Although a few isolated gusts around 40 mph will be possible this morning, do not currently expect the higher gusts to become widespread.
High pressure is anchored off the East Coast, and we've got plenty of return flow to keep the air mass over Middle Tennessee warm and humid.
Currently, a strong cold front has cleared the area, with good cold advection continuing in its wake. A lull in precipitation is expected through much of the afternoon, before the approach of an upper trough axis increases forcing into this evening. With low confidence in frost formation, will limit headlines to a Freeze Warning for portions of the Panhandle and far western Sandhills (Sheridan/Garden/Grant/Western Cherry Co) where confidence is highest in subfreezing temperatures tonight. For tomorrow and tomorrow night, precipitation may linger into the early afternoon, before the upper low begins to depart and heights build aloft, with any moisture chances quickly waning.
Meanwhile, a large ridge over the western Atlantic builds in and contributes to height rises across the Atlantic coast and into the Appalachians today. Tonight and Saturday, a trough digging into the western CONUS will start to slowly move east, encroaching on the ridge. At the surface, the main feature of note is a front lined up near the eastern edge of the upper trough, draped down through the CONUS from a low that crosses the Great Lakes through the day. Mid/upper level ridging over the southeast CONUS will be weakening as the period starts. A weak wave moving in the flow around the ridge could result in a few shower/thunderstorms affecting mainly the southeast part of the area on Saturday evening.
652 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Cold front and low clouds knocking on Grand Forks door as we approach 12z. So idea of clouds, cooler, light rain showers today seem good. Temperatures overnight expected to drop into the low to mid 30s area wide, despite cloud cover. A deep and broad upper level trof extends across the western two thirds of the country.
The models shift the main trof axis across northern CO this evening, with the 130 kt upper jet stretched west-east across central CO by that time. Other concern tonight will be freezing temperatures across the plains. Temperatures expected to be drop below freezing late this evening into Saturday morning. While favorable upslope flow occurs for the high country and foothills, leaning towards the HREF QPF solution similar to the previous shift as these areas accumulate 1-1. By Saturday night, lows will reach the lower teens to mid 20s across the region.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: The low pressure system that has brought rain and snow over the past day will continue to move to the east and will exit our area by the early afternoon. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low will continue to move into the area bringing light rain and snow showers to the area. The Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations of the Little Rockies will be allowed to expire in the next few hours as there is no continuing threat of significant snowfall past the originally designated expiration time. Looking ahead, an upper level trough lingers over the area through the weekend.
1035 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022 High pressure will prevail today.
High pressure at the surface will hang on across the forecast area from the east today and tonight. Highs this afternoon will again top out in the low and middle 90s, with lows tonight only falling to around 70.
Cold front stretches off to the southwest sliding through North Dakota. As mentioned earlier, light snow has developed over the far northwest, with chances spreading over many parts of the west and north central this morning as cooler air aloft continues to wrap into the system. Broader area of precipitation will shift southeast through the day in the wake of the cold front. This will allow temperatures to drop near to a bit below freezing.
640 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Today and tonight) All eyes are looking northward toward the approaching cold front over the central Plains that should bring some relief to the scorching pattern across west central Texas this weekend.
This morning, clear skies and a cold air mass overhead are expected to produce some areas of frost and freezing temperatures within the inland West Side valleys, and after a mostly clear day, some areas of frost are possible again tonight into tomorrow morning. Over the next several days, the broad ridge over the northwestern United States will gradually shift to the east, allowing ridging to slowly build in over the forecast area. Before the trough fully exits, however, weak instability and the last vestiges of the trough aloft could produce a few showers along and east of the Cascades Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will develop and hang out along the southern Oregon Coast and northwestern California, and this will likely result in some periods of easterly/offshore winds and potentially, a Chetco effect for Brookings and the surrounding areas.
yielding well below-normal highs ranging from the lower to middle 40s (Colorado) to lower-middle 50s in the east (McCook, Hill City). The end of the week looks to bring a return of the drier and warmer conditions.
Think this trend will continue as diurnal instability increases through the day, and these temperature delineations could become even a couple degrees warmer. Cold front stretches off to the southwest sliding through North Dakota. As mentioned earlier, light snow has developed over the far northwest, with chances spreading over many parts of the west and north central this morning as cooler air aloft continues to wrap into the system. Broader area of precipitation will shift southeast through the day in the wake of the cold front. This will allow temperatures to drop near to a bit below freezing.
Winds stay elevated this morning but will gradually diminish throughout the day with temperatures significantly cooler Friday and Saturday.
550 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Today and tonight) A decent late season cold front will bring much needed relief from an early dose of summer-like heat. The cold front, which is moving faster than most models are forecasting, will push through northwest Oklahoma by sunrise, and will continue to push southward through the day. This area will be more prone to active fire behavior before cooler and somewhat more humid conditions arrive for the weekend.
CIGs currently on the lower end of VFR, near 1500~2500ft.
724 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022 High pressure will prevail today.
Ridge axis starting to lift north is tightening the pressure gradient with exercise caution winds.
Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 97(1962) 93(1941) 89(1962) 92(1998) 91 92 90 90 2. Today: Ridging strengthens across the area as heights rise ahead of a trough across the central/northern Great Plains. This coincides with a tightening pressure gradient due to the trough across the plains and the high anchored off the southeastern coast in the Atlantic. Tonight: Gusty winds subside across the lower elevations but light southerly winds remain in place. Breezy winds will remain in place across the higher elevations as 850mb winds remain at about 30kts due to the increased pressure gradient.