Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1016 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Mean layer upper air analyses indicate ridging prevails from the lower to upper troposphere. As the high reconsolidates overnight, gentle east to southeast breezes should develop across the Florida Keys.
Upper level ridging will move into the region tonight and remain over the Ohio Valley Wed/Wed night. South central KY will likely reach the lower 70s. Slightly warmer lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s are expected for Wed night.
647 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The slow moving upper level low will move out of New Mexico tonight and into the Southern Plains tomorrow.
The higher dewpoints will also help keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 79 57 79 / 10 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 74 55 77 / 10 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 76 55 77 / 10 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 71 50 74 / 10 0 10 10.
Highs will be mostly in the 80s in the valleys by Wednesday, and lower 90s in the lower deserts.
934 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure exits tonight. High pressure passes Wednesday.
1048 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours.
658 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from Hudson Bay southward into the Mississippi River Valley. Despite the presence of prevailing high pressure, boundary layer moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Forecast soundings show the low-level moisture remaining in place tonight, so am expecting cloudy skies to continue through Wednesday morning. As the high shifts off to the east and the New Mexico low begins lifting to the northeast, increasing warm advection will lead to the development of scattered light showers across the western half of the KILX CWA on Wednesday. The upper level trough over the Southwest U. today will be over the central Plains by Wednesday evening with a low level jet strengthening in the lower Mississippi region helping to enhance severe thunderstorms ahead the cold front.
High pressure will build into the region tonight through Wednesday.
1147 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The slow moving upper level low will move out of New Mexico tonight and into the Southern Plains tomorrow.
921 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 High pressure will build over the region through the midweek.
738 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure exits tonight. High pressure passes Wednesday.
A few wraparound showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, north of I-20, as the upper low moves east across North Texas. 04 (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Some wrap-around showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the northern Big Country Wednesday night as an upper low moves east our of the Panhandle.
717 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
We could see additional showers (perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) redevelop from west to east across parts of the Caprock late tonight (after midnight) as additional lift from the upper low spreads across West Texas. Ceilings will vary from VFR to IFR through the evening, with sub-VFR conditions also expected behind a cold front that will move through the terminals Wednesday morning. Along with hail one of the main threats for areas off the caprock is tornadoes as the warm front begins to push northward and the dryline pushes eastward. While PoPs are still present in the current forecast they have been lowered to slight chance and may need to be dropped depending on future evolution of the forecasted upper low.
808 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight and stall near the CSRA.
1111 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
518 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Latest analysis showed the upper low located over New Mexico this afternoon with abundant moisture streaming northward into the forecast area along the east side of the upper trough. Temperatures may cool enough this evening for some light snow to develop over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Any snow accumulations there tonight would be light, generally an inch or two, with locally higher amounts possible on the highest peaks overnight. The precipitation will gradually end from north west to southeast tonight as the upper trough shifts the southerly flow of moisture to the east of the forecast area. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected on Wednesday with decreasing clouds and highs on the plains generally in the 50s.
1022 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening.
857 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Only isolated showers remain this evening for southeastern Georgia as northwest flow amplifies from a building upper level ridge across the Gulf.
635 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A warm front had lifted north of the Metroplex TAF sites late this afternoon. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop late this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A southeast wind between 12 and 16 mph this evening will turn more southerly by sunrise Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Weak upper ridge aloft will provide a quiet TAF period. With the upper ridge in place.
ALONG WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN CUBA. FROM SATELLITE WE FIND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS. OUT OF THIS UPPER LOW WE FIND AN AREA CONVERGENCE SPREADING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
626 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LARGE WAVELENGTH RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AT THE PLANETARY SCALE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH AMERICA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP STRUCTURE RIDGE TO POSITION OVER THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. RIDGE STRUCTURES BECOME LESS PRISTINE AND MORE DIRTY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS TIME GOES ON. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
808 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INVADE. LEAVING COOLER AIR BEHIND WITH HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO TOP OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA ZONES WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. BUT THE OVERHEAD TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
308 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEKS WEATHER HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NEVADA TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO STRENGTHENS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TOMORROW EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
616 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
452 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
345 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES BUT UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSOLVE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WHICH REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT RELATES TO SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
/issued / A deep upper trough lies over the western CONUS. with broad ridging downstream over the remainder of the nation. lee troughing to our west and broad ridging to our east will maintain southerly flow across our region. Fog has developed the past couple of nights due to the higher dewpoint air in place. Expect a slightly warmer day on Wednesday. after the low clouds/fog burn off that is.
849 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALREADY SEEING VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE DESERTS. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AND I ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. BUT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER. WITH PERHAPS A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF OUR CWA BEFORE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE N CARIB NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
742 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH POSSIBLE A FEW UPPER 60S IN SE GA NEAR AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
1028 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL BE OUR MAIN PRECIPITATION MAKER LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. TROUGH AXIS CONNECTED TO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE THROUGH OUR REGION TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCING SOME LIFT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOST PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END LATE.
A DEEP L/W TROF CONTINUED TO DIG AMPLIFYING BROAD RIDGING ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. WITH THE HIGHER SFC DPTS AND POSSIBLE GROUND STRATUS FORMING. AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEEPER MIXING WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE SITES FOR NOV 4TH.
648 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RATHER TOUGH TO BREAK AGAIN TODAY THANKS TO WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. WARMER TEMPERATURES. THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. IT WILL NOT COME BARRELING INTO AND THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS BUT WILL HAVE TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE.
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
952 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
MAIN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED RAPIDLY NORTH INTO WRN MONTANA BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES ARE STILL COMING SOUTH MOSTLY SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
134 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
The proximity of the high along with a moist low level airmass will again result in patchy fog late tonight and early Thursday.
MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT LINE SUGGESTIVE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES RISK TODAY FOR HIGHS. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOES ARRIVE. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER MANY LACES WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A BIT STRONGER NORTH WIND BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. GFS/ECMWF INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE E SEABOARD. WITH A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE S AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE ND LOW AND DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE TO E MN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MI ON THURSDAY AND BRING MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRI AS A PAC NW IMPULSE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TWRDS THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND COULD STILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR SAT NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEYOND SUNSET OVER THE HIGHER SAN JUANS. THE NORTH JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LATEST OUTPUT CONTINUED TO EASE THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING ALOFT.
406 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
335 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what's left of the low clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion Counties. 00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by about 6 hours. afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the board.
On Thursday, showers will taper off during the morning, and a ridge of high pressure begins to build back into the area. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday.
/ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NW GULF COAST REGION. WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AMID THE RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LOW IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WWD ON FRI. COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. 13 LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
552 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHTS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER AND LOWER TREND REGARDING POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THEN THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND LEAVE THE PANHANDLES UNDER A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE.
Updated PoPs to be more representative of the current trends which are really focusing along the highway 56 and 54 corridors in the far sw to just south of Garden and Dodge City. Winds will generally be from a southelry direction throughout the day due to a trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. Skies look to be partly cloudy overnight with winds shifting to more of a southwesterly direction ahead of a cold front progged to move through Thursday. As for temperatures, highs today look to top out around 80 degrees with lows tonight ranging form the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. This will help push a surface cold front through western Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
WEAK RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE RIDGING AND ALSO A LACK OF FORCING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
306 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS DRY OUT QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN THURSDAY.
259 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMER THAN SEASONABLE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S TODAY.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT THOUGH AS CENTER OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THESE WILL BE CROSSED OVER TONIGHT ADDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WITH STREAMER SHOWERS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COMBINED WITH 500 MB LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH PROPAGATES FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND N CARIB. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MOVE OFF THE MIDATLANTIC STATES WHILE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO THE FL PENINSULA.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE MANCOS RIDGE NE TOWARDS TELLURIDE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEYOND SUNSET OVER THE HIGHER SAN JUANS. THEN NORTH JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ DRIFTS SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.
Therefore the temp forecast reflects the high end of guidance by day, and stays close to consensus by night. Next wave will reach the Upper Peninsula of Michigan by late Thursday, but any precip associated with the cold front will hold off until later Thursday night.
341 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ. UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
As for tonight, with light winds, have trended cooler across srn portions of the CWA, but kept a warmer trend across wrn and nrn areas where winds will become sly with more cloud cover tonight ahead of the approaching cdfnt.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW ACROSS AZ. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SOME 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY 60S WITH SOME 50S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
137 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
Drying is expected Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the region. /Pelatti 18z TAFS: A warm front moving through the region today will keep ceilings low and light rain going for much of the day.
606 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN COOL AIR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. AND WINDS IN THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
Thurs night a cold front and upper trough will approach the Ohio Valley bringing showers and a slight chance of elevated t-storms mainly after midnight to portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Clouds/precip and a bubble of warm air right ahead of the front should limit lows to the lower 60s.
256 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT SFC AND ALOFT. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER AZ HAS OUR REGION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IS STEADILY PUMPING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO W TX.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR IAH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY BEFORE HIGH SLIDES EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW PREVAILING WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY. MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN GOING INTO THE LATE WORK WEEK.
WHILE AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
109 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU NIGHT. OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
146 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.