Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE THINGS DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 SO FAR. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DRY WEDGE OF AIR WILL SHRINK IN DEPTH NOW INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AS MID LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION TO BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. DRY AND WARMER (50S) ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE BREEZY AS WE MIX UP TO NEAR 700MB.
THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. /ISSUED 456 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/ UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MOST VULNERABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDER THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THOUGH MAY KEEP DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH INTO AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LIFT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A CAPPING INVERSION. S CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. BY TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FREEZING LVL DROPS TO AROUND 2K FT AGL BY MID-DAY THURSDAY. WE WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND LEAD TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER INDIANA TODAY WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO EAST OF OUR STATE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF IS INITIALLY FOCUSED WEST RIVER. WITH THE LOWEST 3KFT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE WESTERN CONUS TROFFING.
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS COMING TO AN END. CALLS TO AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME A BIT LARGER WITH RESPECT TO NEXT ROUND OF PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE MORE MIXED PCPN AS WAA MOVES OVER THE TOP OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE SEEN SUFFICIENT SUN TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. RADAR DEPICTING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM LOWER MICHIGAN BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AND KPNC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTING THE LOWS. AT THIS TIME A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
325 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FIRE WX ZONE 205 UNDER HAZARDS THE H5 TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IS KEEPING WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30 AND 40 MPH GOING THROUGHOUT EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND A HARD FREEZE FOR THE LOW VALLEYS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AFTER THE COOLER WEATHER OF TODAY AND THU.
WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER CA/UT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER INLAND. JOINING WITH THE TROUGH OF A STRONGER CANADIAN LOW. A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
COLD FRONT CROSSES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
Near-surface shear still somewhat weak, but will be increasing with in the next few hours as the upper trough crosses the Rockies. To the west, the main upper trough was still over the central Rockies. On the synoptic scale, the upper trough over the central Rockies moves east tonight into the plains and then into the upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. The warm front over southeast Kansas should move north in response to the deepening low moving northeast. In the meantime, thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop near the boundary over southern Kansas and increase in coverage and severe weather potential as the low-level wind fields increase in response to the deepening synoptic scale low. The low-level shear increases during the overnight hours as the low moves into northeast Kansas. The cold front moves through in the morning.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A GOOD KICKER MOVING TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE NOW AND A DEEPENING TROUGH HEADED SOUTH QUICKLY IN IT/S WAKE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT 18 UTC THERE WAS A RATHER FLAT, DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS RIDGE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE BORDERS WITH NEW MEXICO AND MEXICO. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1257 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN COOLS DOWN TO BELOW OR AT FREEZING.
343 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY 12Z WED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WITH 925MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN WED. IT COULD REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 60S IN THE SOUTH AND COOLER TO THE NORTH.
WARMER TEMPS MAY LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN NM INTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS IN THE PROXIMITY OF A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH. THE UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND AIDED IN DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY. A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SRLY SFC FLOW WED- THU. A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES WHERE THE FIRST PIECE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AND SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE FA LATE FRI AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AN AREA OF UA TROUGHINESS WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN.
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN THAT WILL IMPACT US WILL FALL LATE TONIGHT TO ABOUT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY HEAD TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW CONUS.
The 12Z TAE sounding revealed that the surface to 800mb layer warmed about +2C over the past 24 hours which lends credence to the model consensus that today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the low 80s.
Weak weather system moves through tonight through late Wednesday bringing some light precipitation and cooler temperatures.
829 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO MEXICO WILL SHEAR OUT THE MID LEVEL FEATURE LEAVING STABLE AIR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF TX SHOULD HELP REINFORCE THE LOW CLOUDS THAT CURRENTLY COVERS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE PREFERRED FOR TODAY. BUT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISPERSE LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO CENTRAL TX. BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES STREAM UP FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S.
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN. SFC RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION MEANS THAT CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE GOING AWAY COMPLETELY UNTIL THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST/BREAKS DOWN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SFC/ COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDS JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST BEFORE MOVING IT ONSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DOUBLE BUBBLE IN THE TROF ALOFT (AOA FRI) SEEMS TO SIGNAL A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS THE SRN MOST LOW CUTS OFF AND RETROGRADES A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGING ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS.
ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST WITH A 1020MB HIGH MOVING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. STILL THINK SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND. JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN SCATTER OUT THE BKN AND OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THUS HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WEEKEND.
THE LOW VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR BRANDON MANITOBA.
706 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/ LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW LOCATED OVER S AR WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO TX. AS THE LOW LIFTS N/NE THIS MORNING WE WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM AND SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S BY THE NOON HOUR. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT THIS EVENING AND WILL BISECT THE AREA FROM THE SW TO NE.
1033 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
928 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. ARW EAST AND NAM12 ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WV INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO OR WEST CENTRAL WV. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COPIOUS ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EXTREME VA COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
1255 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION TODAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROF MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM.
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
A VERY FORMIDABLE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES WELL ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE. A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY. A PREDOMINATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE.
Northwest of the Illinois river, where rain chances are lowest and cloud cover the thinnest, some highs in the lower 60s are not out of the question. Deep trof over the desert SW and Southern Plains remains the driving force for the weather in the Midwest through the week. Same upper level trof is the initiation of a couple of waves that start surface systems over the Gulf Coast that move into the Ohio River Valley and skirt the Midwest with some precip chances. After today's precipitation, the trof stays in place, breaking the flow across the CONUS into the warmer southerly airmass. Starting again as a wave out of the deep western trof, skirting the coast and into the Ohio River Valley.
734 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND A LITTLE COOLER MOST AREAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAXS A TOUCH WARMER WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE AREA.
951 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS, BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
1001 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM SK INTO CENTRAL MT. UPPER RIDGE BUILD ING OVER THE WESTERN US. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE CWA WITH POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS OVER MT INTO WESTERN NE. GRADIENT AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO 700MB.
934 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT THE WHOLE SCENARIO EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
A secondary upper trough will develop over the western Panhandle southwestward through extreme West Texas and into northern Mexico today and remain stationary. The position of this upper trough will keep the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft, however, any associated precipitation will remain west of our CWA. Today will be warmer with highs in the mid 60s and morning lows tomorrow in the lower 40s.
RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED S OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING INTO THE WRN GOMEX. RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINING A SHARP AND PERSISTENT LOW/MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED S OF BERMUDA EXTENDING W INTO THE NRN GOMEX WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE OVER THE OPEN ATLC.
Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region with drier air upstream, so we'll see plenty of sunshine with highs in the low/mid 60s this aftn.
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRY OUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
723 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 RATHER STRONG S/W TROF WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN PARTS OF PINE/BURNETT COUNTIES UNDERNEATH CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WHERE SNOW COVER IS ALREADY NEARLY GONE. CURRENT SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE A TAD BEHIND THE SCHEDULE LAID OUT BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AGAIN OUT WEST.
/ISSUED 438 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015/ This morning have an upper trough extending down from NE. Models develop a closed low in the center of the trough over the Red River on Wednesday. Another upper trough will move off the West Coast later in the week and merge with this trough over the Central Plains. Temperatures will be warmer today and back into the 60s. Not much change for Wednesday maybe a couple of degrees warmer Wednesday.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION TODAY. AND THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST WIND /DOWNSLOPE EFFECT/ WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70F IN LOWER VALLEYS /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/ THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
THE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RIDGE IS PUSHED OVER CO ON WED AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
632 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 58 69 56 / 100 80 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 54 65 52 / 100 80 90 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 56 64 52 / 100 80 90 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 53 62 48 / 100 80 80 50.
Similar story on Wednesday with 850 hPa temperatures again supportive of temperatures in the lower 70s, this time across the entire area with mostly sunny skies region-wide.
859 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR BRANDON MANITOBA.
SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST WITH A 1020MB HIGH MOVING IN.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO COLD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY. THE LARGE H5 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD. PUSHING THE LOCAL RIDGE EASTWARD AND WEAKENING IT. WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS IS NOT PRESENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT.
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND HAVE REMOVED. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE NOW.
MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 34 45 25 / 50 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 31 40 20 / 40 40 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 52 31 40 21 / 60 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 27 35 15 / 60 50 10 0.
A cold front will push south through all area terminals through 29/18Z with gusty north to northeast winds in it's wake.
904 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
546 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850 MB. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL BY THIS EVENING. THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO FL.