Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The backdoor cold front was beginning to push in from the northeast. Max temps will trend slightly cooler but will remain above normal over the southern zones and near normal over the north today. An upper level low over the desert SW will will move east on Sunday.
632 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure covered the forecast area at 07Z/2am. Meanwhile, a batch of cirrus clouds were floating overhead thanks to a piece of short wave energy moving over northern Minnesota atop upper level ridging.
Generally added 2-3 degrees to the highs from yesterday which reached the upper 60s to lower 70s in most places, and upper 70s just downwind of the Buffalo Ridge.
922 AM PDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Patchy morning valley fog this morning, otherwise increasing clouds and cooler.
902 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Temps across the TN valley were ranging from the low 40s at Muscle Shoals to the mid 50s at Fort Payne. These high clouds should still allow aftn highs to climb into the low/mid 70s. The 500-mb ridge axis is progged to shift slowly eastward across the region tonight and Sunday, forcing mid-level winds to back to the southwest and strengthen.
1023 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 See little to change in forecast this morning as high pressure continues to dominate the region today. Hydrolapse plots show increasing moisture with height in the lowest layer of the air mass, which is one primary indicator of fog formation. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 40s, based on expected lowest afternoon dewpoints.
957 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Based on how warm we got yesterday and latest guidance, hard pressed now to go warmer with highs this afternoon. For the first time in quite a while we were cooler than the ECMWF guidance yesterday, so this supports going very close to this guidance or above again today. For this reason, we'll go ahead and update the fire weather forecast with the lower RH values. After seasonal temperatures today, a return to above normal readings will occur on Sunday as ridging aloft builds in.
1156 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Deep ridge over the center of the country will be slow to move over the weekend maintaining this prolonged stretch of above average temperatures. Highs today will again reach the lower 70s, while a slight drop in 850 hPa temps on Sunday will bring a slight cool down with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
/issued 458 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery show a weak ridge over the region between a closed low near the four corners and a deep trough off the ern seaboard. A weak disturbance was traversing acrs TX on the wrn periphery of the ridge. Slightly cooler air is beginning to spill into cntl LA where temperatures are in the middle 50s/near 60 as of 4 AM. Further south and west, temperatures remain a little warmer in the middle 60s to near 70. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than the past few nights but still above normal values, with temperatures falling into the middle 50s acrs cntl LA to the lower/middle 60s along and south of I-10.
1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 East to northeast winds prevailing as high pressure continues to build across the region. Otherwise, current forecast is on track with high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s today.
A slow moving upper low near the Four Corners will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the area today.
High pressure and clear skies will remain through the day. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 47 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 43 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 43 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0.
An upper level trough over Texas will pull away taking the showers and thunderstorms currently over Central Texas with it by midday. An upper level low currently near the Four Corners region opens up and moves across the Southern Rockies tonight into the High Plains Sunday.
/issued 408 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ The upper low that has been to our west over the last several days is slowly moving north toward the Four Corners while becoming an open trough. As this occurs, the trough will move east across our area bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This low will weaken Today as it wobbles to the east.
High pressure aloft remains in control with clear skies and light winds prevailing over central California. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough off the Pac NW coast with an impressive band of moisture (PWAT ~ 1. Models agree that this moisture will stay to our north as the trough moves inland tonight, with just a few mid/high clouds for our area. The trough will increase the onshore surface pressure gradient today, resulting in windy conditions through and below the Kern County mountain passes tonight into Sunday.
Clouds and rain/drizzle will likely also affect the high temps for this afternoon so have lowered a few degrees in some areas. Models continue to show this low getting kicked northeast later today and tonight.
926 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will build over our region though today. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
1241 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into the region for much of the upcoming week. Expansive continental high pressure is hauling in tons of dry air of higher latitude origin in N-NW flow aloft over the area this morning. Chief caption this period reads 'Seasonably Cool and Dry' as slowly modifying Canadian high pressure and dry N- NW flow aloft prevail across the region.
517 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low near the Four Corners Area. As the low moves north it is slowly merging back into the flow around the ridge over the western CONUS.
749 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A large area of high pressure will build from the Ohio River Valley to the Northeast U.
1016 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through midweek. A cold front may move through the region towards the end of the week. High pressure in control with full sunshine. Highs 2 to 4 degs warmer than yday with mid to upper 60s common in most places.
For today, an upper level closed low is forecast to cause scattered showers in far northeast Arizona, with mostly isolated storms elsewhere. but will persist over NE Arizona through the late morning along the favored upslope areas (north facing slopes of the higher terrain). A few minor adjustments will be made to the forecast today for the low clouds. This morning's satellite imagery reveals an upper level closed low currently centered near Ganado in northern Apache County. Radar indicates only isolated shower activity near the low center. This low is forecast to lift toward the northeast today, exiting the state late this evening. The best chances for showers today will continue to be near the low center in far northeast Arizona.
1254 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Large high pressure system will bring vfr conditions along with light winds through taf period. The low level circulation surrounding high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley is advecting a warmer and slightly more humid low level airmass into Lower Mi. Thus far, low cloud/fog development within the modest moisture advection has been limited to portions of the higher terrain of west-central Lower Mi. This will support afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 422 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Closed 500 mb low pressure over the Four Corners area will gradually open up into a trough while shifting east into the Central Plains during the forecast period. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist during the daytime and overnight hours with no significant passages of cold fronts likely.
Mid-upper trough pushing through S/C FL this morning forcing a surface front through the area and into south FL during the remainder of the day. Strong high pressure builds into the region behind this system. Moisture behind the boundary remains limited and is mainly trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere, suggesting whatever showers that do manage to form over the Atlantic will be quick-hitting and produce little in the way of accumulation as they push onshore, mainly from Cape Canaveral south. NE surge will continue behind recent cold front keeping small craft boating conditions hazardous areawide.
A warm and quiet weather pattern looks to continue for some time across the region, with ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface remaining in control.
1002 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into the region for much of the upcoming week. Previous discussion follows: Expansive continental high pressure is hauling in tons of dry air of higher latitude origin in N-NW flow aloft over the area this morning. Chief caption this period reads 'Seasonably Cool and Dry' as slowly modifying Canadian high pressure and dry N- NW flow aloft prevail across the region.
Currently, broad upper level ridge remains over much of North America, with two embedded cyclonic circulation centers (weak low over Wyoming and a larger upper low over the Desert Southwest) undercutting the ridge across the Rockies.
TFJ Previous Discussion: Upper ridge over the northern plains will keep unseasonably warm and dry weather over the region through the weekend. This wave will push a cold front across the state Sunday afternoon.
638 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Early morning surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. With the slow approach of the closed mid-level circulation over the 4-corners region, some deepening of the lee trough was noted. Models remain consistent though in good mixing to around 925 mb, and this again should produce highs in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest temperatures over northeast Nebraska where there will be less effects from the high clouds. As the low- level flow becomes more southeast on Sunday, and clouds continue to thicken, the boundary layer mixing will not be as deep reducing highs from today.
Recent MODIS imagery measuring lake surface temperature in the lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 60s, and decreasing boundary layer winds to less than 10 knots, expect a lake breeze to develop late this morning and afternoon over the near shore waters. High pressure centered over the Ohio valley.
Temps across the TN valley were ranging from the low to mid 50s. These high clouds should still allow aftn highs to climb into the low/mid 70s. The 500-mb ridge axis is progged to shift slowly eastward across the region tonight and Sunday, forcing mid-level winds to back to the southwest and strengthen.
Quiet and cooler conditions expected today with highs in the mid to upper 70s and breezy northeasterly winds. Low to mid level high pressure will slide toward the southeast today, pushing a much drier, cooler airmass into the area. With a tight pressure gradient in place between the exiting low pressure system and incoming ridge of high pressure, winds will be gusty today and generally from the northeast.
After seasonal temperatures today, a return to above normal readings will occur on Sunday as ridging aloft builds in.
High pressure will transition over North Carolina from Ohio River Valley this afternoon while inverted trof or area of lower pressure will reside over the Florida Keys keeping strong pressure gradient in place. Highs today in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and mid to upper 70s south of I-10 to north central FL.
The cirrus was associated with a weak upper low. Tweaked the high temperatures to raise them slightly as airmass has not changed from yesterday. Strong high pressure aloft will continue to dominate our weather today, though would expect a bit more mid and high cloud especially in our east as weak area of PV lifts out of central WY.
1008 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Other than bringing the forecast into line with observations, the main aim of this update was to handle precipitation associated with a passing upper trough in the far northwestern parts of the area. /ISSUED 624 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ The backdoor cold front was beginning to push in from the northeast. Max temps will trend slightly cooler but will remain above normal over the southern zones and near normal over the north today. An upper level low over the desert SW will will move east on Sunday.
Readings around Denver extending to Limon could reach the lower to mid 60s while areas further to the north and ne stay in the 50s. There is strong southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA on Monday ahead of the next upper trough.
High pressure will keep conditions dry across the area through the start of the work week. The next chance for rain will come mid week as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. Conditions will be dry as high pressure works into the area.
534 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 The cold weather looks like it's here to say, despite a large ridge of high pressure building across much of the central U.
650 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Northwest winds around a large low pressure system in the Maritimes will persist through the day.
A weak embedded impulse within the upper ridge axis was observed lifting northeast across Missouri. Since temps are warmer this afternoon and there is some insulation from the high clouds over north central KS, lows are not as cold with readings in the lower 30s.
525 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 High pressure and dry air will keep the sky clear over the area through the period. Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge will be over the Plains through Monday. An upper trough will move into the western U. Northwest flow will be over Arkansas today and Monday then will become southwest Monday night as the upper trough approaches. A warm front will approach the state Monday night.
By Monday, a cold front will move into Arizona, which will further increase shower activity. Lowering snow levels with the front will bring some light snow accumulations to the high country of Arizona Monday afternoon and evening.
/issued 346 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The Freeze Warning, currently in effect for the southeastern part of our area, expires at 9 AM when temperatures are expected to climb above the freezing mark.
/issued 345 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ WV imagery shows an upper ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, while at the sfc, high pressure has moved sufficiently to the SE of the region to allow return flow to redevelop. Temps should rebound back to above-normal today under increasingly SW flow aloft as an upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, dampening the ridge and pushing it ESE. Monday, the west coast trough approaches the 4 Corners, developing SHRA ahead of it in SW flow aloft thru Monday night.
The next upper trof off the California coast will move inland late tonight before moving across the central/southern Rockies on Monday night. Increasing and thickening high cloudiness can be expected in advance of the upper trof tonight and Monday.
A broad upper ridge will extend across the central U. As the 500 mb ridge axis advances over the Central Plains, an increase in mid an high cloudiness overnight. The upper trough in the west will amplify and bring increasing moisture to the Four Corners region with rain or snow showers to western Colorado and southwest Wyoming. The low develops on the leeside of the Rockies Monday as the upper level cross the central lifts across the central Rockies. Surging moisture ahead of the low across southeast portions of the area could combine with some weak lift for some sprinkles. Monday night as the low ejects onto the plains eyes will be closely monitoring temperatures.
Upper level ridging will develop over the high plains today. Despite the warmer airmass, temperatures tonight will still drop to near freezing given the expected light winds and mostly clear skies.
Cold high pressure is settling over the region. High pressure will be centered over the region today. Temps will be cool with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Obs depicting a fairly significant temperature gradient ranging from the low 30s in the AEX area to the mid 40s at BPT. Surface analysis showing cold high pressure ridging across east Texas and through the mid and upper Mississippi valleys. Aloft, broad ridging envelops the mid-conus behind troffing exiting the eastern seaboard.
A Pacific weather system will bring unsettled and cooler conditions to the region beginning this afternoon.
514 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Manitoba southward to Texas will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing sunny skies and cool conditions. Despite full sunshine and lighter winds, temps will be a couple degrees cooler thanks to a colder start to the day and limited mixing beneath the subsidence inversion only up to about 925mb. Another cold night is expected tonight as the high shifts eastward across Illinois.
Current Situation and Prognostic Overview -- A cold front has passed through the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, with northerly breezes and a slightly cooler air mass than yesterday.
Plenty of mid/upper level moisture with upper ridge so while we may be starting out fairly mild temperature recovery will be minor with cloud cover. Should see temperatures close to average on Monday with fairly mild airmass in place with slightly cooler temperatures over deeper snow cover across the far south and east. Condensation pressure deficits remain fairly high east of the trough until towards morning so will keep lower pops going.
These two features are separated by a broad upper ridge which dominates the central part of the CONUS. At the surface, a large anticyclone continues to slide east across North and Central Texas. Winds are slowly becoming light southerly over our western counties on the western edge of the high pressure ridge, and the rest of the region will fall suit later today as the ridge continues east to the MS Valley. Light winds, clear skies and the dry airmass in place has led to temperatures bottoming out below freezing across a good portion of the region this morning. These areas will likely not see temperatures reach freezing, but will still likely see mid 30s before daybreak. Plentiful sun and the return of light southerly flow will lead to a quick warmup, with highs generally in the lower to middle 60s.
The fresh Canadian high pressure remains sprawled over the four state area with last hour obs showing 1033mb at Temple TX and also NE of Little Rock AR. The combination of the light winds, wet soils from recent rainfall, and cold air associated with high pressure over the Four State Region, has resulted in patchy mist/BR with visibility restrictions of 3-5 statute miles, and brief fog/FG with visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 statute miles. Freezing temperatures and the dense fog had produced freezing fog/FZFG in some locations. Temperatures have fallen to near or below freezing in most locations, and there will still be a few hours of additional cooling before daybreak. Near or below freezing conditions will be possible once again tonight/Monday morning across portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central Louisiana.
Strong high pressure building in from the nw will produce sunny and cool conditions today. Highs today will only reach the lower 60s.
Current 500mb analysis upper depict ridging centered over the Plains resulting in NW flow aloft for the ArkLaMiss. Temperatures this morning will continue to hover around the freezing mark, with temperatures at most sites falling to or just below freeze criteria. High temperatures today will be almost identical to yesterday's, except in the SE Mississippi, where they will be a few degrees cooler.
The increase in cloud cover and sfc moisture is helping to hold min temps up significantly versus 24 hours ago with most sites running 10 to 15 degrees warmer. A few thunderstorms also possible Monday afternoon as cooler air aloft arrives ahead of the long wave trough moving east across the Great Basin.
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Cold dry air continues to advect across west central and southwest Florida in the wake of a cold front.
With near-neutral temperature advection and full sun, we should see high temps this afternoon from the lower 50s south to the mid 40s north.
419 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 With clear skies and light winds overnight, low temperatures so far this morning range from the lower/mid 30s well inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast. As of 4 AM, a few spots up north have temperatures right around freezing, and some of them might fall a degree or two below freezing before sunrise.
639 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Low pressure will intensify over northern New England today and meander over the area through Monday.
High pressure ridge extended from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Returning high level moisture west of the ridge was evident on IR satellite movie loops, in the form of cirrus clouds streaking eastward across the central Plains and into western Iowa. Today: High pressure ridge will be over the cwa providing plenty of sunshine, light winds and below normal temperatures. The cirrus plume streaking out of the central Plains should dissipate some as it approaches the ridge axis.
707 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 A cold front is moving across South Florida today. Otherwise, a very dry air mass is moving into the area today, behind a cold front, currently over the northern portion of the CWA. It is uncertain how far south the lower dew points will be able to penetrate. Cold front knocking at South Florida's door this morning. Monday will see the wind die down a bit and high pressure regain its hold over the area.
525 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 253 AM CST High pressure will continue to build into the western Great Lakes today and tonight resulting in fair conditions with some mid/high clouds riding down the lee of the upper ridge. Leaning towards some of the cooler bias corrected MOS guidance which seems to be capturing this well with teens west of the Fox River Valley but still maintaining mid to upper 20s for much of the Chicago Metro area. Fair weather will continue under the ridge with slight moderation of temps with highs back into the low 40s for most areas.
758 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Strong low pressure over New England will drift NE today.
Much Cooler/Drier Behind Early Morning Cold Front. Short range guidance indicates the pressure gradient will gradually ease as high pressure noses in from the northwest, causing north winds to diminish. Little change as the models show winds easing behind the cold front that has moved well to our south.
409 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2016 Upper ridge will remain in control today with dry conditions and temperatures warming into the 60s. Could be a bit warmer than model guidance which appears to be overdoing the impact of the snow field. Ridge breaks down on Monday as system begins to move out of the desert southwest.
Showers will persist today as an upper trough moves through the region.
Rodriguez 253 AM CST High pressure will continue to build into the western Great Lakes today and tonight resulting in fair conditions with some mid/high clouds riding down the lee of the upper ridge. Leaning towards some of the cooler bias corrected MOS guidance which seems to be capturing this well with teens west of the Fox River Valley but still maintaining mid to upper 20s for much of the Chicago Metro area. Fair weather will continue under the ridge with slight moderation of temps with highs back into the low 40s for most areas.
This will mainly be a snow event for the higher elevations above 5000 feet, however, even the valleys down to 3000 feet could see a mix of rain & snow early Monday morning.
The low center which has influenced our weather this weekend was approaching northern Vancouver Island early this morning. The low was gradually weakening and will become an open wave later today. An upper trough associated with this low will rotate across the region today. This upper trough with instability due to the cold air aloft will result in showers and even isolated thunderstorms close to the coast and over the coastal waters. The upper trough shifts east of the area by midday Monday followed by a minor ridge Monday afternoon and evening.