Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1024 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Surface/low level trough across central South Dakota this morning, but more than likely its a weak push of warm advection responsible for morning convection near the Pierre area. A weak trough will set up from southwest to northeast across the state today. There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across the southern tier of the forecast area associated with the trough through tonight. High pressure will also build back in at the sfc this evening. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to persist under the upper ridge through the short term with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The main initial focus in the long range will be on the building heat early in the period followed by the potential for a bit a cooler trend toward the end of the week.
Cold front is still slated to arrive on the dry side Monday as nw flow aloft strengthens. The front will serve, however, to bring cooler and much more comfortable humidity levels into the region for the Tue.
Starting off the new work week, the flow aloft will become northerly as a stout ridge over the Rockies amplifies and tilts eastward.
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will pass southeast of the area this evening. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work into the region for mid week. Temperatures will be able to drop into the lower 60s. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the track of the low and affect the northeast part of the forecast area in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure will start to build in Monday night bringing clearing.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure over the northern High Plains and central Plains, a very weak area of low pressure over the Upper MS Valley and a weak cold front that stretched from the northern Great Lakes southwest to central sections of SD. An area of high pressure is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Monday.
417 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Upper ridge centered over the Rockies, with troughing from South Carolina to the Texas coast. Away from convection, temperatures have jumped into the lower and middle 90s across many areas with dew points in the mid 70s.
Record high temps for the date were set at Mountain Home (103F) and Twin Falls (100F), but the Lower Treasure Valley east to Boise stayed in the 90s with a northwest wind.
624 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The primary short term concerns are the potential for severe storms tonight and again Monday evening along with the warmer than average temperatures expected.
309 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Strong upper ridge axis is building over the northern Plains with warm air advection moving toward the forecast area. Surface boundary is slowly sinking southward through southern SD as evident of the northward moving CU field with the higher dewpoints and southwest winds stopped at the boundary with northeast winds and lower dewpoints to the north.
Upper level ridging remained centered over the southwestern U. per the 19Z water vapor imagery with the ridge axis extending into the northern Rockies. A closed upper low was off the Pacific Northwest coast, and an MCV was noted over southwestern OK generated from last night's convection. At the surface, high pressure continued to nose into northeast KS providing some relatively dry air and light winds. The low level moisture axis was shifted west over south central and western KS as a result. For tonight quiet weather should continue due to a lack of forcing for vertical motion and general subsidence within the upper ridge axis. With clear skies and light winds, lows are expected to fall into the lower and middle 60s. Highs Monday look to be in the lower and middle 90s as models warm the airmass slightly.
1032 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Currently - Troughing through the lower and mid levels reaches southwards along the Atlantic coast and into the western Gulf of Mexico, just pushing into the Keys area. The trough will remain to our north and ridge across Cuba, maintaining the moist confluent flow. A trough to our north and the Atlantic ridge across Cuba will continue drive gentle southwesterly breezes across Keys waters overnight.
Drier air continues to slowly filter into the area from the north, which will allow overnight lows to be a bit cooler than the past few nights.
731 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight. Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push southeast across the area on Monday.
457 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through the short-term. Would not be surprised if the convection remains east of the forecast area due to the strong subsidence from the ridge. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with hot and dry southwesterly flow.
Light winds and lows in the lower to mid 50s are in the forecast tonight. The only change for this update was to lower minimum temperatures tonight toward the cooler end of guidance, given clear skies and light winds expected. High pressure is situated over western ND this Sunday afternoon with clear skies across all of western and central ND. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level ridge will build over the Rockies and into the High Plains tonight and Monday. Lighter and more easterly winds will be found along and east of the Highway 03 corridor.
Upper trough axis over the area and backdoor front moving sw into se Ga will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms going until at least midnight. Upper trough will continue to drift se over ne Fl on Monday with scattered afternoon storms expected more likely over ne Fl and coastal se Ga where higher instability and moisture will exist.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the region through the next several days, resulting in record challenging heat beginning today and lasting throughout the week. High pressure remains in place across the region this afternoon. A nearly 600 dm ridge will continue to sit over the Four Corners region through much of the week. Meanwhile, a trough will be located off the Pacific Coast.
Overnight lows settle in the low to mid 70s. (Previous Discussion) A mid to upper level weak trough will be over central Florida on Monday and will slowly move southward across the peninsula through the day.
513 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Strong upper ridge axis is building over the northern Plains with warm air advection moving toward the forecast area. Surface boundary is slowly sinking southward through southern SD as evident of the northward moving CU field with the higher dewpoints and southwest winds stopped at the boundary with northeast winds and lower dewpoints to the north.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the upcoming week. This high pressure will become centered over the four corners region by the middle of the week, allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. The upper pattern today is defined and dominated by a strengthening ridge of high pressure with a ridge axis extending from southeast Arizona into central New Mexico moving northward toward the Four Corners, and an inverted trough south of the Baja moving west.
Mid level ridging and Gulf high pressure will persist the next 24 hours. Mid level ridging will dominate through the short term period, even if it weakens locally as the ridge axis gradually lifts to the Four Corners region.
1004 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will pass southeast of the area this evening. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work into the region for mid week. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the track of the low and affect the northeast part of the forecast area in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure will start to build in Monday night bringing clearing.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 69 88 63 / 50 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 67 84 61 / 30 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 90 65 83 61 / 30 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 62 81 56 / 60 10 10 10 10.
/issued 417 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/ Upper ridge centered over the Rockies, with troughing from South Carolina to the Texas coast. Away from convection, temperatures have jumped into the lower and middle 90s across many areas with dew points in the mid 70s.
917 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A cold front over the Appalachian Mountains will slowly cross the Middle Atlantic overnight, then dissipate near the Chesapeake Bay on Monday as another cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
The dry antecedent air mass tonight will preclude any precip development in central IL with the cold front. Temps tonight will respond to the increasing W-SW winds and warm advection after midnight, especially west of I-55 where our warmer lows will reside (mid 60s). Cooler lows in the low 60s will be along the Indiana border, where light and variable winds will persist through the night under clear skies. High pressure will dominate the weather across the area tonight, keeping things dry with clear skies. A low pressure area with a trailing cold front will drop through the state Monday morning. This frontal passage will bring slightly cooler temps to the region and less humid conditions.
A bit more cloud cover could hold highs a couple degrees cooler than today though, perhaps making a Heat Advisory unnecessary.
Surface analysis this evening places a weak and ill-defined cold front over portions of the Mid-South. The thunderstorms are behind a weak cold front which is moving south out of north Mississippi. The upper level pattern for the next few days will have a large upper level ridge centered over the Rockies.
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Messages of the Day - High pressure across the central US keeps skies clear and weather calm for the next couple days. A high pressure settled over the central CONUS paired with northwest upper level flow brings calm sunny weather to the region. Temperatures look to peak Monday reaching the low to mid 90's for many areas. A larger high pressure to the SW eventually shoves the current system out of the area. As the ridge continues to build from the SW, low level flow accelerates warm air and more moisture into the region. While temperatures look to retreat back to the high 80's toward the end of the week, dew points in the low 70's make it feel much steamier than what has been experienced over the past few days.
With current dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s and some sfc temps in the lower 80s, moderate instability (between 2000-3000 J/kg) still exists after sunset and will persist overnight, especially in areas that are not convectively contaminated by earlier storms. A 5h ridge axis will extend east from the large upper high in the southwest U. High pressure at the surface will drop southeast into the Ozarks and lower TN valley, but weaken some. A secondary cold front will be dropping in quickly behind as a strong trough axis drops southeast through the Great Lakes and OH valley.
311 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The big story remains HEAT as a strong ridge builds ahead of a deep trof off the Pacific coast, allowing for a very warm air mass to surge out of the desert southwest. There is a low level jet bringing in higher dewpoints combining with steep lapse rates and a subtle hint of a weak impulse under the ridge.
951 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight. Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push southeast across the area on Monday.
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The only change for this update was to lower minimum temperatures tonight toward the cooler end of guidance, given clear skies and light winds expected. High pressure is situated over western ND this Sunday afternoon with clear skies across all of western and central ND. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level ridge will build over the Rockies and into the High Plains tonight and Monday. Lighter and more easterly winds will be found along and east of the Highway 03 corridor.
753 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
Adjusted forecast rain chance overnight with the highest chance north and east of Tampa Bay area, then overspread a 40% by morning across coastal counties due to deep, moist, and unstable westerly flow and warm Gulf waters. High pressure ridge axis over the FL Straits to keep the moderate W- SW winds and 2-3 ft seas in the E Gulf waters into mid-week along with showers and thunderstorms over coastal waters overnight and early morning before moving ashore during afternoon hours. High pressure south of the state will keep the W-SW flow over the area through the week producing high RHs and scattered to numerous summertime showers and thunderstorms into mid week.
STP The big story remains HEAT as a strong ridge builds ahead of a deep trof off the Pacific coast, allowing for a very warm air mass to surge out of the desert southwest. There is a low level jet bringing in higher dewpoints combining with steep lapse rates and a subtle hint of a weak impulse under the ridge.
217 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The primary short term concerns are the potential for severe storms tonight and again Monday evening along with the warmer than average temperatures expected.
A high pressure system is located over southwest New Mexico with northwest flow aloft the forecast area and dry air and subsidence being brought into the Panhandles. Temperatures in the southern half of the Panhandles are warming well into the lower 90s and reaching their convective potential. Going into Monday, south southeast surface winds persist with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 90s across the forecast area.
317 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front moved through Minnesota and western Wisconsin yesterday before stalling in Iowa overnight.
357 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure will move away from the region today. A cold front will approach the region by the middle of the week. As of 355 AM: Latest IR satellite images indicated a large area of clouds off the SC coast associated with an area of low pressure. The center of the low will track to the NE today, resulting in cloud cover along the coast to decrease through the rest of the morning. In the mid-levels, the axis of a broad trough will drift over the Atlantic through the day as a ridge builds from the west. At the sfc, a cold front will gradually push over the Appalachians and Foothills. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range in the low to mid 70s.
1135 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through the short-term. Would not be surprised if the convection remains east of the forecast area due to the strong subsidence from the ridge. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with hot and dry southwesterly flow.
An upper level ridge will continue to amplify over the Rocky Mountains and Great Pains through the next couple days. In north central Nebraska, flow aloft will not be quite as warm, and a backdoor cold front may hinder heating in the late afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s. The previously mentioned backdoor surface cold front will continue to push further into north central Nebraska in the late afternoon and early evening.
By sunrise, I anticipate that most of the convective activity will have subsided though some guidance keeps showers/storms ongoing across the Big Country as the MCV continues to track toward the south/southwest along the eastern flank of the mid-level ridge.
1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Messages of the Day - High pressure across the central US keeps skies clear and weather calm for the next couple days. A high pressure settled over the central CONUS paired with northwest upper level flow brings calm sunny weather to the region. Temperatures look to peak Monday reaching the low to mid 90's for many areas. A larger high pressure to the SW eventually shoves the current system out of the area. As the ridge continues to build from the SW, low level flow accelerates warm air and more moisture into the region. While temperatures look to retreat back to the high 80's toward the end of the week, dew points in the low 70's make it feel much steamier than what has been experienced over the past few days.
An upper level trough is progged to set up to our east, allowing for a bit more SH/TS development across portions of the CWA.
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Upper level high pressure will amplify across the 4-Corners area later today and tonight with northeast steering flow across the Texas South Plains region. RMcQueen The dominant ridging pattern over the west will leave our area on the southeast side of the sharpest height rises aloft through midweek. Later this week the ridge axis shifts east and flattens while the Polar jet shifts farther south providing a relatively quick transition from northeast flow aloft to northwest H50 flow, by early Sunday.
318 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will be in control for most of the week, with several days of dry weather expected.
The Evening Update: Upper trof axis nearing 130W with SWly flow over Norcal continuing through Mon before the trof moves inland on Tue with veering mid level flow. This will depend on the onshore momentum that could continue with the Ern Pac trof. The downside is, the trof axis is still W of 130W which apparently reduces the onshore momentum. The main synoptic player over the coming days with be a strong and broad upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest.
Cooler and drier air will continue to slowly filter into our region on north winds.
Instability and the trough dynamics wane westward, so it appears Juneau/Adams will be just out of the scattered showers moving south this afternoon.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 69 88 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 67 84 61 81 / 10 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 65 83 61 81 / 10 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 81 56 78 / 10 10 10 10 10.
158 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Pleasant summer weather is expected in the low impact, short term period. An upper ridge extending from an upper high over NM will slide into the Dakotas during the short term period, providing plentiful solar. Ridge axis slides into MN tonight and most of area will see surface winds shift to the east, becoming rather light in areas east of the valley.
305 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected again today with a reinforcing cold front.
High pressure remains centered over North Dakota this morning while an upper level ridge amplifies just to the west. Today the ridge will continue to amplify with its axis shifting east.
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure has yielded clear skies and near calm winds across the area this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. The stout mid level high centered near the Four Corners and accompanying ridge across the west central CONUS will continue to drive our weather for the next several days. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s (warmest temperatures in far eastern KS and along KS/MO border with slightly cooler temperatures as you head east), but dewpoints will remain quite low for June standards.
257 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Much quieter weather will continue into the early work week as a broad ridge continues to build across the Eastern Rockies with a broad trough across the Eastern United States. With the northerly to northwesterly flow, highs will top out in the mid 80s across the northeast where better CAA is expected, while the southern counties should rise to the low 90s where the ridge is the larger factor. Dry weather will then continue into the overnight hours with lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s thanks to the lower surface dew points and the expected clear skies.
/Issued 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021/ Cannot rule out some late isolated convective triggering across the area, but the greater chances are going to be in the NE mtns for orographic enhancement and central GA closer to the moisture axis and weak lobe of upper trough energy. Temps Monday afternoon should be able to reach decently above climo with most of North GA in the low 90s and even parts of central GA in the mid 90s.
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A weak cold front will pass southeast of the area this evening. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work into the region for mid week. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the track of the low and affect the northeast part of the forecast area in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure will start to build in Monday night bringing clearing.
206 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight. Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push southeast across the area on Monday.
254 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front bisects the forecast area early this morning. The atmosphere is still rather unstable with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will warm into the low 90s under this ridge with dewpoints in the upper 60 to low 70s.
So daytime highs will be similar to what we experienced yesterday, but dew points should be a few degrees cooler and make for a more pleasant afternoon. Expect the drier and clearer weather to continue into tonight and we'll get a few degrees cooler with overnight lows right around average for this time of year.
Temperatures in the models are continuing to nudge upwards for the next couple days and confidence is moderately high of the high temperatures. Rux PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Large ridge of High Pressure has entrenched itself over the area and this will cause temperatures to soar about 20 to 30 degrees above normal.
In the wake northerly winds will usher in somewhat cooler air. Low level jet should veer toward Iowa before diminishing with sunrise, thus anticipate an eventual weakening trend to the areas of elevated convection, but some of the high cloudiness may encroach on our skies today. Do have some concern that deeper mixing and dry antecedent conditions, particularly in the drought areas could foster some overachieving on temperatures with readings near 90 or in the lower 90s in a few areas. Tonight, high pressure will build in providing a tranquil night with comfortable temperatures. Quiet and dry conditions will remain in place through mid-week with surface and mid level ridging the dominant feature.
227 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Last weeks upper trough finally well east. High pressure behind will strengthen as we head into the afternoon and that will eventually push this boundary to our south. And a secondary upper wave and frontal boundary will push through tonight, which is setting up some fine dry mid-June weather Tue and Wed with cooler temps and more comfortable humidity.
A few areas of convection have lingered through the night to the north and west, with the eastern-most area in eastern South Dakota associated with a weak cold front tied to the Great Lakes wave. The most robust activity is on the west side in western Nebraska where a MUCAPE ridge pokes north out of western Kansas. Low- level temperature progs warm a touch and have continued with a slightly warmer day today despite more though thinning cirrus over light surface winds.
411 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Unsettled weather persists across the region this morning under deep-layer westerly flow as troughing remains parked over the E CONUS.
Upper ridging will be the key feature this week in maintaining settled conditions across the area.
423 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure ridging into the Upper Lakes from the northern Plains will yield a quiet and seasonable start to the work week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s but with onshore flow near Lake Superior expect it to remain cooler there. A mainly clear and seasonable night is expected tonight with high pressure ridging into the U.