Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 144 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020/ An amplified pattern remains in place aloft with ridging out west and a closed low over eastern Canada, with troughing extending across much of the eastern half of the U. At the surface, high pressure over Texas extends eastward across the Gulf and over Florida. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region during the day with little fanfare.
514 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Temperatures across the region have moderated as an upper ridge begins to build into the central CONUS, with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the middle 50s in eastern Kansas to the middle 40s in northeast Missouri. The aggressive warmup continues into the weekend with continued upper ridging and a H85 thermal ridge nosing into the Mid- Missouri Valley.
The large scale pattern at 500 mb features a trough over the eastern US, a ridge in the west and a trough digging toward the Pacific Northwest.
A dry Sat thru Sun afternoon will be in store for mid state region due to building surface/upper level ridging influences.
A cold front is still on track to pass through early Saturday morning across northwest Montana, around daybreak across west central Montana and central Idaho, and early afternoon across southwest Montana and Lemhi county.
A ridge of high pressure is centered over Central Texas this afternoon with a continued north to northwest flow over SETX and LA. Aloft, the upper trough that is over the east half of the country continues to migrate east while a weak disturbance heads east over the 4 corners area and a stronger trough moves into the Pacific coast. Weather wise Saturday will be very similar to today, just a couple degrees warmer.
253 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures abound this afternoon as warm air advection takes hold as the ridge of high pressure is beginning to shift over the forecast area. Temperatures tonight are not expected to be as chilly as recent nights due to the presence of increasing high clouds but they will still be below freezing. Mild conditions continue on Saturday with temperatures reaching above normal levels under southwest flow ahead of a positively tilted trough approaching from the PacNW. Some mid level clouds may enter by Saturday evening as this trough draws nearer with light orographic showers possible over the eastern Uintas Saturday evening.
Broad ridge of high pressure will shift across Colorado later tonight and early Saturday. There will still be some gusty winds over the higher mountains, but mainly in the 20-35 mph range.
341 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Mostly clear this evening across the Upper Midwest as high pressure remains in control. Overnight low temperatures will be near 0F across the Minnesota Arrowhead and northeastern Wisconsin, while minimums will be a few degrees warmer over north-central MN from increased cloud cover. As an upper level ridge moves over MN on Saturday, a strong jet over the Great Plains will bring warm Pacific air into the MN/WI region, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Ahead of the front, NAM/GFS model soundings have a saturated layer below 875 mb between -10C and freezing.
The lows tonight will be around 5 degrees below normal for late February with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central and southwest IL closer to the deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and northeast US. Warmer temperatures can be expected Saturday afternoon and night as an upper level ridge shifts eastward into the central US, and the surface/low level wind becomes southerly/southwesterly.
Mostly clear this evening across the Upper Midwest as high pressure remains in control. Overnight low temperatures will be near 0F across the Minnesota Arrowhead and northeastern Wisconsin, while minimums will be a few degrees warmer over north-central MN from increased cloud cover. As an upper level ridge moves over MN on Saturday, a strong jet over the Great Plains will bring warm Pacific air into the MN/WI region, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Ahead of the front, NAM/GFS model soundings have a saturated layer below 875 mb between -10C and freezing.
948 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
322 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Broad ridge of high pressure will shift across Colorado later tonight and early Saturday. There will still be some gusty winds over the higher mountains, but mainly in the 20-35 mph range.
Bubble high pressure system will then move in for later tonight/Saturday, bringing a return to sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warmest readings will be over se MO, with the cooler readings in sw IN/se IL.
Some minor tweaks to the wind forecast for tomorrow with the expected cold front passage were made, but nothing that changes the narrative for the forecast. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Expect high pressure over the region today to guide mild temperatures and dry weather conditions. A cold frontal passage remains the expectation for Saturday yielding increasing westerly winds late in the day. Current guidance shows higher elevations such as the Little Rockies as having the higher wind gust potential, perhaps in excess of 40 mph at times.
Stronger onshore flow on Saturday will bring noticeable cooling and higher humidity inland ahead of a low pressure system dropping south along the Central Coast.
After another warm day Saturday, expect a cold front and a few scattered rain showers, especially across our southern zones, turning to snow showers later Saturday night. Also to watch: Increasing westerly winds with the cold front. Some minor tweaks to the wind forecast for tomorrow with the expected cold front passage were made, but nothing that changes the narrative for the forecast. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Expect high pressure over the region today to guide mild temperatures and dry weather conditions. A cold frontal passage remains the expectation for Saturday yielding increasing westerly winds late in the day. Current guidance shows higher elevations such as the Little Rockies as having the higher wind gust potential, perhaps in excess of 40 mph at times.
This will bring a rather nice day to the area with temperatures climbing into the lower and middle 60s west of Highway 65 and into the upper 50s to around 60 to the east under sunny skies. The ensuing southerly winds will allow warm air advection to continue overnight tonight with lows in the 40s to the lower 50s in some locations across western Missouri and southeastern kansas.
A warming trend will begin tomorrow, with highs Saturday into the low to mid 40s and upper 50s on Sunday. Clear skies will continue tomorrow with warmer temps.
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure along the gulf coast dominates.
Even warmer air Saturday as many areas push well into the 50s with ample sunshine. However, a cold front and associated low-to-mid level frontogenesis will provide sufficient lift, mainly across our western and southern areas.
240 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 Zonal flow today and Sunday will promote lee surface cyclogenesis today across southeastern Colorado with the low moving eastward Sunday. Increased heights and thicknesses point to warmer temperatures today while veering winds to a more direct westerly direction on Sunday will add on a healthy downslope warming component.
/issued 144 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020/ An amplified pattern remains in place aloft with ridging out west and a closed low over eastern Canada, with troughing extending across much of the eastern half of the U. At the surface, high pressure over Texas extends eastward across the Gulf and over Florida. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region during the day with little fanfare. Temperatures will warm a bit more Saturday afternoon, but the cold front will give us another cool morning on Sunday, with lows expected to be similar to this morning.
Otherwise mostly clear skies should prevail as high pressure and drier air move into the area. High pressure will provide dry conditions into the daytime hours Sunday. Isentropic lift will arrive Sunday night ahead of a cold front, and a low level jet will bring in moisture.
1054 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Temperatures across the region have moderated as an upper ridge begins to build into the central CONUS, with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the middle 50s in eastern Kansas to the middle 40s in northeast Missouri. The aggressive warmup continues into the weekend with continued upper ridging and a H85 thermal ridge nosing into the Mid- Missouri Valley. The exception may be late Sunday afternoon; with moisture and marginal instability in place, increasing ascent aloft and low-level convergence along a southward sagging cold front may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop over portions of central Missouri.
1228 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 (This afternoon through Saturday) The highlight in the short term will be fire weather and warm temperatures. With downslope flow and clear skies, kept today's temperatures toward the higher end of guidance. This combined with the low RH values in western Oklahoma and north Texas will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
Quiet conditions tonight as the upper level pattern goes from northwest to zonal with an approaching ridge in the Rockies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s. Saturday highs should reach into the low to mid 70s. Sunday should be another warm day with an approaching cold front reaching the I-70 corridor by afternoon.
The coldest lows will be across the west and south in the low to mid 20s. A very mild day in store Saturday as a strong thermal ridge and zonal flow aloft extends across the Plains States. The far southwest will be the warmest in the lower 70s. A cold front will move through Saturday night along with an increase in clouds after midnight. A positively tilted upper trough will move across most of the Great Basin on Sunday. Pacific moisture will increase on the downstream side of the trough. The highest likely POPs are forecast Sunday night from the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska overnight.
Temps are in the mid to upper 30s across these areas so precip will start as rain but temps will cool into the low to mid 30s through dynamic cooling and should switch from rain to snow. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 50 31 62 46 / 40 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 44 27 58 44 / 50 10 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 29 44 27 58 45 / 50 10 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 40 21 57 36 / 70 20 0 0 20 TN.
The high will begin shifting east Saturday Night. Rain chances will increase by Sunday Night and will remain high through mid week as a slow moving cold front moves into the region.
Even though the area will see lots of sun, warming will be delayed with highs only in the lower 40s for most, and only in the upper 30s towards the Bluegrass region. If the winds can avoid going calm, the mixing of the lower atmosphere will help to limit radiative cooling under clear skies.
Otherwise, dry and chilly high pressure will build over the Southeast states through Sunday.
119 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday. Ridging will extend through the area Saturday night and Sunday.
Modest southwest winds will then develop later Saturday into Sunday in the wake of the high.
Ridging will continue to build overnight and into tomorrow, with skies clearing and winds subsiding overnight. Highs could reach the low 70s if mixing is slightly greater than forecast, or moisture advection is slightly less than forecast. With lee troughing developing towards Colorado and western Kansas, a tight pressure gradient will form across central and eastern Kansas, resulting in some gusty southerly winds. ) Warm temperatures will continue Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, pushed southward by a strong upper trough near the US/Canada border. The front will continue to pass through the area Sunday evening and overnight, with cooler temperatures slowly filtering in.
235 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 219 AM CST It is a chilly start to the morning across the area thanks in large part to an area of high pressure moving across the area. Temperatures are then expected to drop back off into the upper 20s early this evening, before rising back into the lower 30s later tonight as warm air advection continues to increase over the region. Forecast guidance continues to support the likelihood of a cold frontal passage over the area Sunday night.
A fantastic spring preview will be enjoyed today, as the atmosphere warms strongly and lee troughing establishes across the west/NW zones. Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Sunday morning, with most locations holding in the lower to mid 30s. A prefrontal trough and northerly wind shift is expected Sunday, with N/NE winds averaging 10-20 mph. Sunday should be another warm day with an approaching cold front reaching the I-70 corridor by afternoon.
Some mountain snow showers will continue for today into tonight as upper level trough is slow to push eastward. During the second half of the overnight and headed into Sunday, surface and upper level ridges build over our area.
/issued 240 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/ An upper trough is over the eastern part of the country with upper ridging over the western part.
1026 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures abound this afternoon as warm air advection takes hold as the ridge of high pressure is beginning to shift over the forecast area. Temperatures tonight are not expected to be as chilly as recent nights due to the presence of increasing high clouds but they will still be below freezing. Mild conditions continue on Saturday with temperatures reaching above normal levels under southwest flow ahead of a positively tilted trough approaching from the PacNW. Some mid level clouds may enter by Saturday evening as this trough draws nearer with light orographic showers possible over the eastern Uintas Saturday evening.
Wave of low pressure containing light snow has dropped around a half inch of accumulation. As expected, the snow is ending as the wave quickly exits the area, giving way to high pressure and clearing skies everywhere except Central Ohio where low clouds are expected to linger. Tranquil weather is expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph should help to keep temperatures feeling cooler. Long wave trof shifts east with mid level ridging/height rises building into the region Sunday.
With warm advection continuing Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will only fall into mid 20s to mid 30s. Some mid 50s are possible across the warmer valley locations of southwest WI, depending on how thick the higher cirrus is.
Southwest flow aloft will continue to provide the region with mostly cloudy skies but dry conditions tonight ahead of an approaching upper trough and accompanying cold front. There is a chance of showers by afternoon, primarily over the higher terrain. After a relatively mild night, an upper trough and accompanying cold front will move into the area early Saturday. An upper ridge noses into the region on Sunday, bringing an end to the precipitation and clearing out the cloud cover by afternoon.
321 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area today. Ridging will extend through the area Saturday night and Sunday.
Temps are in the mid to upper 30s across these areas so precip will start as rain but temps will cool into the low to mid 30s through dynamic cooling and should switch from rain to snow. Flight condition could drop to mvfr category for a period or two during the first 6-7 hours of the forecast, but drier air building in behind the upper level trough will lead to clearing skies from cha through tys and tri between 14-18z.
The low level thermal ridge shifts through the CWA Sunday into Sunday night. Temperature values at 925 mb within the ridge are shown to be 7 to 9 deg C.
This is driven by clockwise flow around a sprawling high pressure center over the western Gulf. The Upper Keys are experiencing clear skies, but the Lower Keys have been seeing pancake cumulus clouds this evening thanks to the cross-Gulf trajectory of the wind. Models show a reinforcing cold front passing the Keys around mid- day Saturday. Seas over the southeast Gulf continue to slowly subside, where the Pulley Ridge Buoy is now reporting a significant wave height of 3.
316 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 Upper level ridge over the Rockies this morning will slide over the Central Great Lakes by Sunday, allowing for a significant warmup. Even today, with the developing insolation we should be able to reach into the low/mid 30s per latest MAV/MET/EURO mos. Warm front lifts through late tonight with nothing more than some mid/high clouds, setting us up for a mild Sunday with increasing southerly winds, as gusts likely reach 25 mph (per local probabilistic guidance).
Meanwhile, a broad h500 ridge should nudge the warm front east on Saturday, bringing mild air through the region. A cold front will enter the picture Saturday night and Sunday bringing breezy to windy conditions to the region.
Bubble high pressure system will then move in for later tonight/Saturday, bringing a return to sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warmest readings will be over se MO, with the cooler readings in sw IN/se IL. As the high scoots off to the east Sunday, a warm air advection pattern will become established. Increasing south to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph will push afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 60s at most locations, despite increasing cloud cover during the day. A few showers may even pop, mainly along/west of the MS River during the afternoon as overall moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
Adjusted fog mention in the weather grids to bring a larger area as the warmer and more moist air pushes eastward. The main forecast challenge for the short-term period is when the low level stratus will move to the east. Given the possibility of moisture remaining wedged in the lower levels, there is a chance of fog formation overnight. There will be a warming trend into Saturday as an upper level ridge pushes east into the area. Sunday brings an upper low through the region with an associated theta-e boundary and cold front.
A fantastic spring preview will be enjoyed today, as the atmosphere warms strongly and lee troughing establishes across the west/NW zones. Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Sunday morning, with most locations holding in the lower to mid 30s. A prefrontal trough and northerly wind shift is expected Sunday, with N/NE winds averaging 10-20 mph. A vigorous but dry cold front is expected Sunday night.
At the surface, high pressure will also move across the Deep South. The ArkLaMiss will be on the western side of this high by Saturday evening, which will allow for southerly winds to return. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s in the west to the lower 40s in the east. /28/ High pressure will continue to move east and warmer moist air will quickly settle into the region.
850 waa begins in earnest with a westerly flow whisking away the lingering influence of the chilly low level thermal trough. Progs are showing a mid level wave approaching for Sunday with a surface cold front. If this low level inversion mixes out we could see more sunshine and higher temps. With the mid level wave and low level trough/cold front approaching the area there may be more cloud cover than what the soundings are suggesting.
We'll have a weak upper level ridge sliding east across the plains today resulting in mostly clear to clear skies with a warming south southwest wind. The wind will quickly die down this evening into tonight and a cold front will swing through the region with the wind becoming northwesterly behind the front.
This front will bring cooler conditions on Sunday, but still fairly mild with highs in the 30s and 40s.
621 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area today. Ridging will extend through the area Saturday night and Sunday.
Meanwhile, a nearly zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather with limited cloud cover during the weekend, while the aforementioned high pressure system maintains an onshore flow that will rocket daytime high temperatures into well above normal levels.
High pressure has moved off to the east and southerly winds will begin transporting Gulf moisture back into the region.
The warm front that is causing this will usher in low clouds and visibilities this morning from the west - mainly impacting the Brainerd Lakes region with areas of fog. A cold front will slide through late Sunday afternoon dropping temperatures and giving the best chance for -shsn near Intl Falls as ice returns to the cloud deck. Overall, warm with the largest impact being the low visibilities.
Even warmer weather will be on tap for Sunday as strong southerly winds boost readings into the upper 50s and lower 60s. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing light winds and plenty of sunshine. As the high shifts into the Ohio River Valley, southerly return flow on its back side will signal the beginning of a major warming trend. As the pressure gradient between the departing high and an approaching cold front tightens, southerly winds will increase. The cold front will push into central Illinois Sunday night, eventually tapping into increasing Gulf of Mexico moisture and triggering widespread showers.
A high pressure ridge will shift to the east of WI today and begin a southwest return flow. 850 waa begins in earnest with a westerly flow whisking away the lingering influence of the chilly low level thermal trough. Progs are showing a mid level wave approaching for Sunday with a surface cold front. If this low level inversion mixes out we could see more sunshine and higher temps. With the mid level wave and low level trough/cold front approaching the area there may be more cloud cover than what the soundings are suggesting.
As ridge shifts east tonight, mid level flow becomes more w-sw, with moisture returning to areas along the Continental Divide by Sunday morning. Combination of clouds and modest downslope winds will keep min temps relatively mild at most locations, and a few of the usual warm spots in the lee of the eastern mountains will likely stay at or slightly above freezing through the night.
Low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will move south along the coast today and Sunday bringing gusty winds, a chance of showers and cooler temperatures.
Cold conditions will persist today with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A ridge of high pressure will push east of the area tonight setting up a period of stronger south winds for Sunday. These south winds will provide much warmer conditions for Sunday with high temperatures from the mid to upper 40s across south central Lower Michigan to the lower to mid 50s across west central Indiana.
530 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 219 AM CST It is a chilly start to the morning across the area thanks in large part to an area of high pressure moving across the area. Temperatures are then expected to drop back off into the upper 20s early this evening, before rising back into the lower 30s later tonight as warm air advection continues to increase over the region. Forecast guidance continues to support the likelihood of a cold frontal passage over the area Sunday night.