Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This made adjustments to timing and where the higher PoPs are through the day, which now look to be mainly along the Gulf coast and in the Lake region.
The very moist upslope flow is expected to continue into the evening before weaker south winds and slightly upper ridging take over.
An area of low pressure is in place across the area providing a very warm moist airmass and allowing for the areas of rain. Weak low pressure in place across the area will keep light winds and scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms possible for the next few days.
1026 mb high pressure over eastern WI and western lower MI and ridging southward into IL provided another cool early morning with lows in the 50s (Chenoa had low of 49F). High pressure ridge axis has shifted just to the east this morning. Not updating at this point as the echoes on radar are dissipating as it moves into the ridge. Temperatures today are similar to yesterday, if a degree or two cooler with the sct thin cloud cover.
For today, the higher POPs will be across the western half of the region where weak forcing aloft will be present, although isolated storms will still be possible across the eastern counties.
For the end of August having Canadian high pressure over middle Tennessee providing highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with low humidity is quite nice. A sprawling high pressure system over the eastern United States will keep fair conditions and northeasterly surface flow in place over middle Tennessee through the forecast period.
The lowest temperature at this time was 29 degrees at the Superior 1 RAWS station. An active beginning to the extended with a trough digging into the Upper Midwest and cutting off across Wisconsin.
1051 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 High pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes with a light northeasterly down valley wind. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 66 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 84 63 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 62 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 81 59 / 0 0 10 10.
/Issued 402 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017/ Relatively dry short term forecast in store as Canadian high pressure ridge builds into the Southeast. Model solutions advertised the potential for some light rain to develop over the higher terrain of north Georgia on Saturday, so have isolated pops to that area through the afternoon and early evening. Should see an overall cooling trend of a few degrees as the dry, cooler air mass settles over the area through the weekend.
1022 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly build across our region through the weekend. The high will also bring about a gradual warming trend.
1106 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are going over north central SD as an upper level trough and surface front is slowly pushing eastward across this area. These storms should weaken as they progress eastward, or away from the upper level trough. Taking a look at the 500mb pattern, a 500mb ridge over the Dakotas will exit east as a trough shifts across mainly ND and northern SD this afternoon and evening. Concentrated the highest qpf around or over 0. Expect an overall slower movement of the storm system (and storms themselves at around 20kts or less), so have slowed down the exit in the forecast a bit, and kept the higher precipitation amounts over our southeast and eastern counties.
Temp trends have rebounded somewhat into the lower 70s from their earlier lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. A pleasant weekend is in store for the area as weak upper ridging builds from the southeast in response to Hurricane Harvey's northward progression. Models are in fair agreement that an upper low will develop over south central Canada and drop into western Great Lakes late Saturday night.
1033 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Wx nil, as high pressure pushes into northern MI. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper troughing was over the NE conus early this morning with weak NW flow aloft over nrn Michigan. Ridging at the surface and aloft continues to provide pleasant late summer weather Saturday.
Cannot rule out an isolated storm near the Dakotas border as surface trof and somewhat greater moisture lingers in this area. Otherwise it will be modestly cooler with higher humidity across the region today. Another series of disturbances will move into western zones mid day, accompanied by a chunk of monsoonal moisture rotating around ridge anchored over the Great Basin.
High pressure will continue to usher in drier air through Saturday as we are seeing an omega block develop right on top of the southeast and remain for at least the next 48 hours.
522 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Upper ridging sits across the upper Midwest this morning with near zonal flow across the northwest CONUS. Strong upper ridging is then progged to develop across the western CONUS with the region sitting under northwest flow aloft.
Taking a look at the 500mb pattern, a 500mb ridge over the Dakotas will exit east as a trough shifts across mainly ND and northern SD this afternoon and evening. Concentrated the highest qpf around or over 0. Expect an overall slower movement of the storm system (and storms themselves at around 20kts or less), so have slowed down the exit in the forecast a bit, and kept the higher precipitation amounts over our southeast and eastern counties.
At the surface, and inverted surface trof is in place over the Northern Plains region extending through NE into the Central Rockies. As the aforementioned weak wave pulls out of the Rockies and developing low pressure creates a frontogenetical response and thus sharpens the frontal boundaries, this area is probably the focus for any significant weather at least nearest to the forecast area for northeast and east central KS. As cloud cover diminishes into the day today, do expect that temps will range from the low 80s near the KS/MO border to the mid 80s near north central KS as deeper mixing occurs. Temps may be a bit cooler than tonight due to less forecast cloud cover in place.
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Weak upper level ridging to the west will maintain another quiet day across our area while broad northwest upper flow keeps temperatures a few degrees below average.
Zonal flow expected by this evening as high pressure works to build over the Desert Southwest. The ridge amplifies so the axis is across the forecast area by Saturday evening, with dry and warming conditions expected. Isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Idaho this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft today transitions to zonal tonight, followed by a ridge building in from the south Saturday. Temps today should be much like yesterday, with a few degrees of warming tomorrow as the effects of the building ridge are felt.
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 303 AM CDT Early morning GOES water vapor imagery depicts drying and subsidence across the western Great Lakes in the wake of a strong mid-level short wave trough heading into southern New England. Northeast winds will produce a bit of lake cooling, with afternoon temps expected to range from around 70 near the shore to the low- mid 70's further inland. Guidance temps in the low-mid 50's appear reasonable for overnight lows. Ratzer 303 AM CDT Dry weather looks to continue through Saturday, as short wave upper ridge remains across the region. Some increase in mid-high clouds is expected as the Northern Plains short wave pushes into the ridge axis, though temperatures should continue to moderate a bit into the mid-upper 70's away from the lake as winds turn more southeasterly.
Temperatures will be cooler today with considerable cloud cover and precipitation around.
The early morning local sounding indicates the gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes extend to around 15000 feet, thanks to the alignment of the weak but relatively deep trough aligned just to our west.
As a result tstm activity will be rather isold this aftn into the early evening hours across the higher terrain and ern plains. Aftn highs will be a few degrees warmer versus yesterday as readings rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across nern CO.
For the end of August having Canadian high pressure over middle Tennessee providing highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with low humidity is quite nice. Canadian high pressure will be in control for the next 24 hours.
Large scale northwesterly flow continues into the weekend as the upper trough slowly gets replaced by short wave ridging. As this occurs, the consensus favors rapidly deepening upper troughing and eventually a closed upper low dropping into the western Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. Before that time, the upper low that will have moved into the Great Lakes early in the week seems poised to slowly meander eastward as it weakens. While we start to get into science fiction forecasting land beyond that juncture, there are some indications from the GEFS/Canadian that deepening troughing in the central portions of North America should drop down from Canada.
449 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
Gulf moisture return continues today around the ridge centered off the mid Atlantic Coast. A look at visible satellite imagery shows a nice cumulus field over the CWA, with some enhancement where convergence is occurring with the anti-cyclonic flow around the high. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to continue into Friday night with mild overnight lows mostly in the low 70s.
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
Will leave out pops for the remainder of the overnight hours, only reason to update as still expecting low clouds to arrive later tonight and dewpoints in the lower 70s so expect overnight lows around mid 70s. Much of this convection is associated with an upper trough moving eastward along the Gulf coast. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s combined with daytime temperatures in the low 90s will result in heat index values above 100 degrees F. During the afternoon and evening of Friday, another complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will form across Oklahoma and Arkansas ahead of a cold front.
The back edge of this upper level trough responsible for the Red Flag conditions the last few days will finally exit to the east and push the cool front across the rest of the forecast area this evening into the overnight. Some showers may linger over the divide by Friday morning as an area of channelized vorticity on the back edge of the trough pushes through. High pressure will rebuild over the Great Basin and slide over the region by Friday afternoon with much lighter gradient winds as we lose the influence of the upper level jet. This will result in a cooler morning and afternoon on Friday with lighter winds and a reprieve from the widespread critical fire weather conditions.
926 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front was on a line from Minot to Baker Montana and pushing south and east. Cold front moving through western North Dakota this afternoon will be the focus for increasing thunderstorms across west into central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. With a broad ridge in place its likely any weak cold front will by dry and provide little relief from the hot weather. A cold front from Minot North Dakota to Baker Montana will push slowly south and east through this Thursday night.
/issued 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ The highest rainfall totals this afternoon have occurred across three separate hot spots. The most widespread impacts appear to be street flooding although a few reports were received of water approaching or entering homes and businesses in Sulphur and Carencro Convection has become more scattered this afternoon as the highest atmospheric moisture is shunted off to the northeast along with the departing upper trough.
The showers/drizzle which have loitered over northeast Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and portions of northern Wisconsin today will gradually shift eastward as the upper trough axis shifts eastward. A long wave upper trough will move through the forecast area Friday night, accompanied by an elongated area of vorticity. Showers will be hanging around overnight however, as the trough affects the area.
Lows overnight in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s nw of the IL river. Highs Sat in the lower 80s over central IL and mid 80s in southeast IL.
Expect upscale growth into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens.
The atmospheric moisture will continue to decline while elongated 500 mb troughiness over the northwest Gulf of Mexico retreats to the northeast and slowly dissipates. Generally rain-free conditions expected across Deep South Texas Friday and Friday night as 500 mb high pressure provides subsidence to the region.
More chances for showers and thunderstorms exist on Friday, as low pressure moves through the area. More chances for showers and thunderstorms exist on Friday, as low pressure moves through the area. There will be more chances on Friday with passing low pressure.
As a cold front slices through the CWA today, I would expect possible thunderstorms to erupt along the boundary as it progresses this afternoon. But support severe weather will be lacking by then, as dewpoints and temps will noticeably lower behind the cold front.
650 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The MCS that pushes through this morning threw a wrench in the forecast for the day by providing a large area of relatively stable cooler air over the region. The focal point for this development is going to be an elevated warm frontal boundary around that is currently setting up right along the I-70 corridor. This synoptic setup looks to break the area into two different threats for the CWA with the first one being flash flooding near the KC Metro area and the second being severe weather near the KC Metro and south into the warmer stable air near the surface warm frontal boundary. 0", storm motion mostly parallel to the warm frontal boundary, and the quasi-stationary nature of this boundary for 6-9 hours this evening.
Much of this convection is associated with an upper trough moving eastward along the Gulf coast. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s combined with daytime temperatures in the low 90s will result in heat index values above 100 degrees F. During the afternoon and evening of Friday, another complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will form across Oklahoma and Arkansas ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorms developing in western areas of warning area in tongue of instability associated with trof over western MN. The showers/drizzle which have loitered over northeast Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and portions of northern Wisconsin today will gradually shift eastward as the upper trough axis shifts eastward. A long wave upper trough will move through the forecast area Friday night, accompanied by an elongated area of vorticity. Showers will be hanging around overnight however, as the trough affects the area.
Will leave out pops for the remainder of the overnight hours, only reason to update as still expecting low clouds to arrive later tonight and dewpoints in the lower 70s so expect overnight lows around mid 70s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 72 87 / 60 70 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 80 69 85 / 60 60 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 81 70 85 / 40 60 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 81 67 83 / 30 60 40 60.
Cold front moving through western North Dakota this afternoon will be the focus for increasing thunderstorms across west into central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. With a broad ridge in place its likely any weak cold front will by dry and provide little relief from the hot weather. This evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours before pushing east and diminishing as a cold front moves through.
Models show 20-30kt of southerly wind in the lowest few thousand feet which should promote a deck of MVFR and IFR stratus overnight at AUS/SAT/SSF. On Friday, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This trough axis will aid in the development of isolated showers and storms in the afternoon near the coastal plains today and again on Friday.
This is well depicted by most models QPF estimates with the highest rainfall amounts along the intl border and cooler temps in eastern zones as shower/TS activity increases by mid-aftn. High pressure will be poised to head south and east out of southern Saskatchewan early in the weekend. the early to midweek period will be characterized by a building ridge to the lee of the Rockies moving over the Northern Plains. Most ensemble guidance indicates a strong potential for warmer temperatures (above normal values). The ECMWF is stronger than the GFS with this ridging, and thus keep all thunder activity north of the region in true ridge rider fashion. There is still lots of uncertainty with the strength of this ridging, which will determine thunderstorm chances (and severe potential).
Surface dewpoints over the lower deserts were low, running mostly in the 30s and latest IR imagery showed clear skies area-wide. Conversely, further west, dew points are roughly 10 degrees higher and temperatures are running at least a few degrees cooler. These trends are related to the effects of high pressure being nudged southward due to a weather system passing to the north. The high pressure has separated into two main anticyclonic regions. In between is weak upper troughing.
Storm coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered and quite severe given the high CAPE and 50 kt 500mb winds aloft. H700mb temperatures fall into the low single digits celsius.
Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 70s.
Clear through Friday night as upper ridge passes through.
The old cold front has already begun to wash out with models shoeing more broad easterly surface winds heading into tonight.
A cold front will push across the region in the morning which will shift the wind out of the north, but it may also bring MVFR ceilings for KPVW. Main pressure rises will not move into the area until late Friday, so only marginally cooler most areas.
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure continues to affect Arkansas. A cold front in the Plains will slowly move toward northwest Arkansas.
At the surface, low pressure is located across northeast Nebraska, with weak high pressure over western SD. Lingering moisture/instability may support a few more showers/storms from the Black Hills area south and east, before the trof finally exits the region. One more day of highs in the 70s is expected before much warmer weather returns with a large upper level ridge.
With ridging aloft on Friday, temperatures will rise into the 90s across the region with a few spots across the northwest counties reaching the century mark. The pressure gradient resulting from a low over southwestern Oklahoma and high pressure over the eastern United States will result in southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Low temperatures in the low 50s west to low 60s east. High temperatures Friday in the low to mid 70s in far eastern Colorado, mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Friday night as a ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS.
Warm and humid conditions can be expected tonight, then slightly cooler high temperatures are forecast on Friday across central and southeast MO and southwest IL due to morning cloud cover and convection. Could not rule out redevelopment of convection Friday afternoon with the approach of an upper level trough and as the atmosphere tries to destabilize again, although the effective boundary may be southeast of much of the forecast area by this time.
A secondary wave over central Nebraska is pushing a warm front north into the area, thus bringing more instability and moisture. Isolated to scattered high-based showers will continue to develop ahead of the warm front, located somewhere along Highway 20. Towering cumulus clouds already building along the cold front will be the spark for convection initiation, mainly after 3 pm. High pressure will build into the region on Friday night and have erred toward cooler guidance values.
1159 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The MCS that pushes through this morning threw a wrench in the forecast for the day by providing a large area of relatively stable cooler air over the region. The focal point for this development is going to be an elevated warm frontal boundary around that is currently setting up right along the I-70 corridor. This synoptic setup looks to break the area into two different threats for the CWA with the first one being flash flooding near the KC Metro area and the second being severe weather near the KC Metro and south into the warmer stable air near the surface warm frontal boundary. 0", storm motion mostly parallel to the warm frontal boundary, and the quasi-stationary nature of this boundary for 6-9 hours this evening.
SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will maintain moderate to strong northerly winds across the coastal waters into the weekend.
expect at CSV where moisture depth once again will be prominent enough along with more pronounced upper level troughing influences to support categorical shwrs/tstms.
It looks like the rain will remain mainly to the southeast, so the Delta may have a chance to warm into the lower 90s tomorrow. The trough axis will lag back, so rain chances will continue over the same general areas starting early Friday and continuing into the afternoon.
Based on current trends, decreased PoPs across much of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend but kept the higher PoPs for the northern portion of the CWA based on the complex to the west. Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy overnight over the inland areas and muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
An area of high pressure that brought cooler conditions earlier this week had moved off of the east coast, firmly placing the southeast CONUS in southerly flow. Given the high amounts of water in the atmosphere, locally heavy downpours are indeed possible, along with gusty winds and sudden lightning strikes. Stayed with the higher rain chances more towards our eastern areas, where the best moisture convergence should occur.
828 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
Despite the great looking spin/short wave trough over central SD late this afternoon and associated deep lift, with the lack of moisture the rainfall amounts have been and will likely continue to be light. Otherwise, another short wave trough will drop in from the northwest later tonight and Friday bringing more chances of showers and storms to mainly the northeast CWA.
Mostly clear skies persist across the region as a dry high pressure system dominates the areas weather tonight. Overnight lows will dip into the 50s and in the 40s across the higher elevations.
915 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Southwesterly flow has persisted in the low and mid levels, as the TN Valley remains on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Meanwhile, disturbances continue to rotate around the ridge, aiding in the development of scattered showers. Temperatures as of 9 pm have dropped into the lower to mid 70s across the TN Valley, but with southerly flow at the surface, temperatures should level off over the next hour or so and be more steady through the remainder of the overnight.
(ISSUED 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 ) High pressure continues to affect Arkansas. A cold front in the Plains will slowly move toward northwest Arkansas.
757 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Warmer and more humid air arriving on a breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms today.
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with lows Friday morning in the lower 70s. By Friday night, a cold front will be moving into southern Missouri.