Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak high pressure is building in this morning this morning too, which has caused 24 hour temp changes to be 10-20 warmer in the mountains over this time yesterday and about 5 degrees warmer in sea level areas over this time yesterday. Today through Saturday: A low amplitude upper ridge will prevail today with upper troughing passing to our north on Saturday. A cold front attendant to the upper trough should dissipate across the area on Saturday while serving as little more than a wind shift boundary.
As the low slides east, the pressure gradient on the back side of it will tighten up, resulting in some hefty winds across the western and central parts of the CWA starting late tonight and continuing through the day Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
After some early morning clouds and a few areas of light rain, starting to see more clearing from west to east across the Valley as an upper ridge resides over the eastern CONUS. The seasonably warm pattern will continue thru tonight aided by a persistent low level southerly flow coupled with the upper ridge pattern in place. The upper ridge axis will then begin to translate east going into the day Sat, as an upper low/trough lifts into the Great Lakes. Afternoon temps look to remain seasonably warm both Sat/Sun, with highs again in the upper 70s/lower 80s, while lows Sat night trend in the lower/mid 60s. Overall temps look to remain fairly stagnant as well, with highs mainly in the lower/mid 80s while overnight lows again fall into the lower/mid 60s.
High clouds will spill over an upper ridge located to the west through Tonight.
236 PM MDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Satellite imagery showing a deep upper low moving across southern Wyoming and shifting into the central plains. Strong upper divergence, combined with surface convergence along an inverted trough over central and eastern Montana, was creating widespread areas of rain and showers across southern Montana and northern Wyoming. The precipitation has been mainly rain across the lower elevations, with snow above 5500 feet. Saturday will be dry as an upper ridge slides in.
Pcpn will diminish as it moves into the area tomorrow morning, but additional showers and storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon on the outflow boundary from the early morning convection in eastern half of the state, and/or along the approaching cold front that should reach west central IL early afternoon. one along an old outflow boundary in eastern IL and the other along the cold front.
As the low over western KS shifts northeast tonight into Saturday we'll see surges of positive vorticity advection, 850mb warm air advection, and a low level jet building overhead. Shear will build to around 50 knots with the low level jet and hodographs show a decent amount of storm relative helicity, the main question is will we get some surface based storms and how much instability will we be able to tap into? The and storm relative helicity may not line up limiting the tornado potential, but there could be a small window tomorrow afternoon in south central Wisconsin as dew points approach 60 in this area.
A warm front is moving northward through the region today. Winds will become southerly as a warm front moves northward through the region. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 82 63 80 60 / 10 20 40 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 82 62 78 59 / 10 20 30 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 81 61 78 57 / 10 20 30 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 57 77 56 / 30 40 20 90 20.
Tonight, strong to severe storms will be possible as a dryline/cold front pushes through western Kansas into our CWA.
232 PM MDT Fri Apr 29 2022 WV imagery this aftn shows an upper trof over much of the wrn CONUS, with several distinct areas of enhanced mid-upper moisture associated with areas of fgen/deformation. Low-level cyclone is fcst to rapidly deepen this evening into tonight over ern NE/SD. Cooling/drying on backside of the cyclone should allow for precipitation to transition to snow over higher elevations tonight before tapering off from W-E tomorrow as low gradually departs the region.
For tonight, 500mb trough across the central plains will close off across southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska tonight, An upper level disturbance will move northeast towards the area. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than today due to thicker cloud cover and rain.
Area of low pressure that brought unsettled weather to the area yesterday continues across central Wyoming this afternoon. These showers should gradually begin to subside over the next few hours as the low continues to push well to the east of the region.
Most areas, especially for the interior, will remain dry through the day as a transitory upper ridge moves overhead. Weak high pressure will give way to a front tonight and Saturday morning.
A warm front should approach the area later today with the clouds across the southwest thickening. Will eventually see warm frontal passage Saturday night as the aforementioned low slowly drifts northeast into the Upper Great Lakes.
138 PM PDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Weak ridging will lead to a warming trend for today and Saturday before winds turn back onshore later on Saturday.
The upper ridge axis will shift east over the weekend, and moisture will continue to increase over the area as southerly flow intensifies. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s across the area, making it one of the warmer days we have had so far this year.
330 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 A moisture starved warm front will move slowly northeastward through the area this evening and tonight. A second and more organized area of showers and storms will move into the area Saturday night, as a cold front moves our way from the west. Highs on Saturday are expected to max out in the upper 70s and lower 80s as we will be firmly entrenched within the warm sector of a developing midlatitude cyclone. The first will be pressing in across the Upper Mississippi Valley, as a warm front sits across the Ohio River Valley at the surface.
An upper ridge slowly shifts eastward across the eastern states during the period an a strengthening upper trof advances across the Plains. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast and highs on Saturday will be mostly 80 to 85.
A ridge will build over the region tonight causing the showers to die out. Saturday morning will feature fair weather under the influence of the ridge with clouds rolling in ahead of the next cutoff low pressure system later in the morning.
Between the dry airmass and ridging it will be difficult to get any deep, moist convection to develop. High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U. This lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge axis will allow dry weather to persist.
Several CAMs solutions do develop a storm or two along the dryline by late afternoon, so will maintain the low pops in the far northwest part of our forecast area prior to 00Z.
1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Summary: A slow-moving low pressure system will bring clouds and rain to the Northland through the weekend. The clouds and showers were associated with a strengthening low pressure system centered over eastern Colorado this morning.
255 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Canadian high pressure will linger over the region through Saturday.
We should remain dry for the rest of today due to upper level ridging in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Overnight temperatures are expected to be into the lower 60s. Upper level ridging will break down as a vertically stacked low pressure system moves from the Plain States to the Upper Great Lakes. This will bring a cold front to the area Saturday evening. Ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms could develop along the Mississippi River and into the Missouri Bootheel.
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 High pressure extending into NC from the north this afternoon will shift offshore tonight.
(Through tonight ) Severe weather potential remains the focus of the short term forecast, with a conditional threat of higher-end severe weather with any storms that can overcome the cap along the dry line this evening, and a threat of severe storms later tonight for mainly northeast OK as a cold front surges south. Later tonight, the cold front overtakes the dry line with convection likely expanding along the front in a more linear fashion. These storms initially will only be slightly elevated it appears, with ample shear remaining in place within base of upper trough to support a threat of damaging wind gusts.
Large looping hodographs indicate strong rotation in the lower levels.
Warmer air is also filtering in around 750 mb, creating a cap across the area. Tonight, the upper level trough, currently over the Rockies will move into the Midwest and become negatively tilted. However, instability will weaken greatly as the line moves east, so the highest risk for severe weather will reside in areas west of a line from Bethany, MO down to Butler, MO. It'll be cooler and breezy behind the front.
300 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: A compact negatively tilted trough currently ejecting out of the Four Corners region will lift into the Central Plains tonight as an upper low closes off. An attendant surface cold front will overtake a sharp dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma and is forecast to be located across central Arkansas by tomorrow evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture return will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low stratus building in across the eastern half of the area combined with an increasing pressure gradient and mixed boundary layer will preclude greater cooling tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Messages: -Potential for severe storms and locally heavy rainfall tonight as strong low pressure moves up through eastern Nebraska -Cool and breezy into the weekend; Scattered showers on Saturday into Saturday evening. Thinking is the the convection takes on a linear form as it moves into Iowa with damaging winds and a few QLCS type tornadoes possible as it remains within the low level instability axis. The threat for precipitation wanes on Saturday night as the upper low begins to depart to the northeast although winds remain brisk.
113 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ A cold front will surge southeast overnight tonight and overtake a dryline across Oklahoma and Texas. Large scale ascent from a deep upper trough over the Central Plains should aid in the development of scattered convection along the cold front during the overnight hours, which should begin to affect areas along and north of Interstate 30 during the early morning. Daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 80s will likely result in moderate instability across most of the forecast area by late Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours. As the axis of the upper trough moves overhead, this should help to re-develop and re-intensify convection along the cold front.
351 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Weak upper level ridge across S TX will shift east tonight through Saturday with a weak short wave moving across the region in its wake.
124 PM PDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Warming trend to continue for the next couple of days as a modest ridge of high pressure builds.
Lower level hodograph curvatures would be more supportive of torndogenesis, but the question becomes whether updrafts will be strong/persistent enough to realize this low-level helicity.
Tonight, the low pressure system continues to slide eastward, taking the main energy into the Dakotas.
Otherwise, there remains rather high confidence in quasi-linear strong to severe convection as the cold front merges with the DL late this evening/tonight as it progresses eastward from the I- 135 corridor across the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas. A drier and cooler regime will follow on Saturday as the upper low deepens over the Upper Midwest.
345 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Discussion/Marine -- High Fire Danger -- Dissipation of thicker mid level cloud deck earlier has allowed for warmer temps and lower humidities this afternoon, with most sites now seeing RH values of 15-25 percent. Thunder threat may exist as the low level jet ramps up and a few hundred joules of cape arrive, but the best instability stays south of Michigan.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma around 8 pm and move into southwest and central Oklahoma by midnight to 1 am. Several models indicate a thin line of convection will develop along the cold front, but may struggle to produce storms where the dryline has surge into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. Severe weather is possible with storms along the cold front, especially across north central and perhaps central Oklahoma.
Even warmer temperatures are on the way for tomorrow with highs reaching the 80s for nearly everyone except the Plateau.
436 PM MDT Fri Apr 29 2022 WV imagery this aftn shows an upper trof over much of the wrn CONUS, with several distinct areas of enhanced mid-upper moisture associated with areas of fgen/deformation. Low-level cyclone is fcst to rapidly deepen this evening into tonight over ern NE/SD. Cooling/drying on backside of the cyclone should allow for precipitation to transition to snow over higher elevations tonight before tapering off from W-E tomorrow as low gradually departs the region.
730 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Aviation -- High Fire Danger -- Dissipation of thicker mid level cloud deck earlier has allowed for warmer temps and lower humidities this afternoon, with most sites now seeing RH values of 15-25 percent. Thunder threat may exist as the low level jet ramps up and a few hundred joules of cape arrive, but the best instability stays south of Michigan.
High pressure will build in briefly through Saturday.
Huston Area of low pressure that brought unsettled weather to the area yesterday continues across central Wyoming this afternoon. These showers should gradually begin to subside over the next few hours as the low continues to push well to the east of the region.
717 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Mid/upper level clouds will thicken overnight into Saturday as high pressure shifts east and a storm system tracks from the central plains into the upper midwest. Dewpoints increase late, into the low-mid 50s, but marginal instability still remains elevated in nature.
Low pressure was located over northern Kansas this afternoon with dual warm fronts extending to the east, one into the Mid- Mississippi Valley and another further north across southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. Some isolated shower activity was moving into northern Minnesota in association with the warm front to the south. As the low drifts northeast to far southeastern South Dakota overnight, waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread across the Northland.
920 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 A weak front will slowly lift north of the area during Saturday with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast. A few adjustments to sky cover in early going, a challenging element overnight with possibility of brief early morning stratus, and teaming clouds in vicinity of weak warm front. 18Z surface analysis showed high pressure extending from the Great Lakes southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and offshore of the Carolinas.
/EC/ Tonight and tomorrow: A compact negatively tilted trough currently ejecting out of the Four Corners region will lift into the Central Plains tonight as an upper low closes off. An attendant surface cold front will overtake a sharp dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma and is forecast to be located across central Arkansas by tomorrow evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture return will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low stratus building in across the eastern half of the area combined with an increasing pressure gradient and mixed boundary layer will preclude greater cooling tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
An upper low situated off the PacNW coast this evening will move inland late tonight and across Oregon on Saturday. A warm front associated with the system will bring light precipitation into SE Oregon early Saturday morning and SW Idaho late Saturday morning through early afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will then develop in SE Oregon during the afternoon ahead of a cold front. A trough will bring widespread light showers Saturday morning. Surface winds: S-SE 5-15 kt, becoming NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt Saturday evening behind a cold front.
High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U. This lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge axis will allow dry weather to persist.
Snow is possible in the highest elevations but significant accumulations are not expected due to minor accumulations, if any.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: A compact negatively tilted trough currently ejecting out of the Four Corners region will lift into the Central Plains tonight as an upper low closes off. An attendant surface cold front will overtake a sharp dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma and is forecast to be located across central Arkansas by tomorrow evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture return will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low stratus building in across the eastern half of the area combined with an increasing pressure gradient and mixed boundary layer will preclude greater cooling tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
706 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 As expected, mid/upper level negatively tilted trough moving into the central Plains. SPC meso-analysis indicates CAPE of 3000+ near the warm front and deep layer shear of 40 KTS. Wrap around moisture is expected on the backside of a mid-level closed low developing in the base of the aforementioned trough for overnight tonight into Saturday. ECMWF wind gusts and hi- res models indicate that the high wind warning may not be quite far enough east on the Nebraska side, especially north of Interstate 80.
905 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Canadian high pressure will linger over the region through Saturday.
523 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 As expected, mid/upper level negatively tilted trough moving into the central Plains. SPC meso-analysis indicates CAPE of 3000+ near the warm front and deep layer shear of 40 KTS. Wrap around moisture is expected on the backside of a mid-level closed low developing in the base of the aforementioned trough for overnight tonight into Saturday. ECMWF wind gusts and hi- res models indicate that the high wind warning may not be quite far enough east on the Nebraska side, especially north of Interstate 80.
Cold front, currently surging into far northwest Oklahoma this evening, will overtake dry line and move into northeast Oklahoma by late evening.
826 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 A weak front will slowly lift north of the area during Saturday with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast. 18Z surface analysis showed high pressure extending from the Great Lakes southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and offshore of the Carolinas.
845 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 High pressure will continue to expand over the region tonight, resulting in increased winds and relatively calm weather conditions for most of the Keys.
With the presence of the boundary and high pressure to the east of Arkansas, winds will remain elevated with a tight pressure gradient persisting.
Light winds will increase on Saturday as a warm front lifts across the region. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 82 63 80 59 / 10 20 40 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 82 62 79 59 / 10 10 20 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 55 81 61 78 57 / 10 10 30 90 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 79 58 77 57 / 30 30 20 90 40.
A well-defined warm front currently stretches from south-central Nebraska across eastern KS and across southern MO and southern IL. The ongoing showers and storms have effectively retarded aggressive northward movement, however the front is expected to gradually retreat northward tonight as a low pressure system across the central Plains moves northeastward and the trailing cold front advances into western MO. The lifting warm front could initiate a few storms as it moves northeast tonight, and it's also possible we could see a few elevated storm as well to it's north primarily across northeast MO and west central IL.
Fog is not expected tonight but some IFR ceilings could develop along the highway 84 corridor. An upper ridge slowly shifts eastward across the eastern states during the period an a strengthening upper trof advances across the Plains. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast and highs on Saturday will be mostly 80 to 85.
957 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Multiple batches of rain pivoting around a large upper level low pressure circulation over eastern Nebraska. As the low slides east, the pressure gradient on the back side of it will tighten up, resulting in some hefty winds across the western and central parts of the CWA starting late tonight and continuing through the day Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
High pressure off the SE US coast will continue to move eastward through the day.
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 High pressure remains in control through most of the weekend. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping below freezing the next couple of nights and mild temperatures during the day.
902 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Temperatures are still in the lower 70s for most of the area.
High pressure ridging north of Florida this weekend will keep east/southeast flow in place, with an easterly surge tonight bringing wind speeds up to exercise caution levels through early Saturday morning.
This line is associated with the prefrontal trough ahead of an approaching cyclone but is expected to dissipate as well. Point soundings depict a capped environment throughout the Mid-South at this time, but a secondary PV anomaly will rotate around the base of the Midwest trough this afternoon, providing large-scale forcing for ascent to cool mid-level temperatures. Storms are likely to weaken during the late evening and overnight period as they move into an less favorable environment with drier air advecting into the CWA behind a cold front.
102 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A weak front will slowly lift north of the area during Saturday with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast. A few adjustments to sky cover in early going, a challenging element overnight with possibility of brief early morning stratus, and teaming clouds in vicinity of weak warm front. 18Z surface analysis showed high pressure extending from the Great Lakes southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and offshore of the Carolinas.
1032 PM MDT Fri Apr 29 2022 WV imagery this aftn shows an upper trof over much of the wrn CONUS, with several distinct areas of enhanced mid-upper moisture associated with areas of fgen/deformation. Low-level cyclone is fcst to rapidly deepen this evening into tonight over ern NE/SD. Cooling/drying on backside of the cyclone should allow for precipitation to transition to snow over higher elevations tonight before tapering off from W-E tomorrow as low gradually departs the region.
Upper low will move across the region tonight and Saturday. Then as the low moves overhead and some diurnal heating occurs after 18Z Saturday.
While cloudy skies remain, temperatures are expected to reach back into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area with far NW MO around 60F and central MO in the low to mid 70s.
Upper level ridging influences and the dry conditions it is expected to bring will slowly shift eastward as day progresses.
(Today and tonight) At this hour, a cold front is pushing southward through west central Texas, thanks to a strong low pressure system over the central Plains. Despite the cold front bringing in northeast winds around 10 MPH, high temperatures will still reach the mid to upper 80s for most areas. As high pressure moves across north Texas this evening, winds should decrease to around 5 MPH and shift easterly. Overnight lows will be mild once again, generally in the low to mid 60s.