Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With Wrn Atlc high pressure north of the area, and relatively light low level onshore flow some early showers and storms along the Treasure Cst will shifting inland after development of the east coast breeze boundary. Lows overnight will range from the low to mid 70s.
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level troughs over CA/NV and from n cntrl Canada into nw Ontario and a ridge over the se CONUS resulting in confluent wrly flow from nrn MN through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was building into the region from the Saskatchewan and the nrn plains helping to push the frontal boundary into cnrtl WI. Tonight, The models have trended slightly slower with the northward advance of pcpn associated with the warm front lifting to the north from srn WI in response to the deepening plains trough.
The low clouds should then lift to MVFR and then VFR and the patchy fog clear with a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the period. The deep western trough has induced strong downstream ridging from the southern Plains to the mid Atlantic coast. Ridge axis will remain well north of the forecast area which will continue large fetch east to southeast boundary layer flow across the Florida peninsula.
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Another warm day is on tap as the area remains on the western edge of the mid level ridge.
This period is characterized by the models replacing the upper ridge over the Ohio valley with the southern edge of a very weak westerly flow aloft.
908 AM PDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A trough will lift away from the area today, resulting in slightly warmer conditions and sunnier skies compared to yesterday.
Expect this low stratus & fog to lift around 1330-14Z. 7 to 2+ inches & K indices hovering low-mid 30s, with the higher amounts of both TPW & K-indices in our west. The storms that develop to the south look to be near the Highway 84 corridor by mid-late morning and more widespread convection and storms areawide by this afternoon. Due to prevalent cloud cover and high dewpoints near 70+ degrees, lows will still hover in the low 70s. Surface ridging to our east (centered over the Appalachians) will slowly build to the west tonight, which could dry us out only slightly, maybe closer to an inch and three quarters. This could help lows to be a touch cooler tonight than this morning.
The I-35 corridor seems to be the westward extent of the lower cigs, but there should be sufficient cloud cover through the morning to keep TEMPO MVFR conds through 16Z.
938 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Weak returns approaching from the west dissipating and with high pressure in place and no support, keeping forecast dry. however an upper ridge and north-to-easterly turning winds will help keep any precip to the west of the FA as the ridge axis shifts over the valley by 18Z.
High pressure over Bermuda and the southeastern United States will allow for a warm and moist flow of air over the Ohio Valley this week. With the persistent surface pattern, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs today and Tuesday in the lower 90s.
This afternoon's forecast looks rather decent with a weak southerly component to the flow regime due to the mean ridge position's axis over the middle and southern atlantic coast. It will be another warm day with highs in the lower 80s extreme northern sections and middle to upper 80s across much of the remainder of the region.
1159 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period.
Highs today should be close to where they were at yesterday, with most sites toping out in the low to mid 90s. Upper low will continue to lift northeast and will move out into the western high Plains by late Tue afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front is expected to push east and by late Tue afternoon will stretch from eastern Nebraska to west of I-135 and eventually into western OK. Upper pattern will flatten out Wed as the upper low lifts into south central Canada with the surface front moving slightly east, from northwest IA to nw of Wichita and into the TX panhandle. Southerly winds will gust to 30-35 knots from mid-late afternoon in response to low pressure over western Kansas.
1039 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Rich Gulf moisture transport into the region is well underway, with dewpoints in the low 70s areawide. The low clouds should scatter out by mid morning.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: A closed upper level low pressure system tracking northeast will bring with it showers and thunderstorms to northeast Montana as early as this afternoon and evening. Rain will be steadiest tonight as the closed low reaches southern Montana before a dry slot works in from the south on Tuesday. Upper low will be lifting from the Great Basin northeast across Montana over the next few days.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s across the island chain. The Pulley Ridge buoy in the southeastern gulf recorded seas of 3 ft. Afterwards, the low level moisture pool will recover, but the mid and upper levels will not.
958 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An area of high pressure will remain centered along the east coast for the next few days, keeping a southerly flow across the region. Tuesday morning the upper level ridge will start to nudge east and slowly loose cohesion. All the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and CMC have been very consistent in showing precipitation developing Tuesday morning in our western zones thanks to the low level convergence. Tuesday afternoon a weak upper level low will move north towards southern Ohio before pushing east. 50" respectively with K index values in the lower 30s.
1017 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the middle of this week.
954 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal. Upper ridge center remains in place near the Carolina/Mid Atlantic coast, with upper low near the Gulf coast, providing a S to SW flow aloft which is allowing some upper level convective debris cloudiness to stream into our region. Upper ridge and associated mid level subsidence inversion, along with a dry low to mid level atmosphere, will suppress convection over most of our FA. Dry conditions should continue through the overnight hours tonight as high pressure remains in control.
/issued 1045 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018/ Forecast continues on track with high pressure holding over the region as a weak front meanders to the north. /issued 226 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018/ A stationary front over Central Florida early this morning will slowly dissipate today into tonight allowing for high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters for late this week. Naples will also be near or at records for the highs rest of this week. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters this weeekend extending back west into the Florida Peninsula. This will keep the cold front well north of the area this weekend and allow for the continuation of dry and above normal temperatures over South Florida this weekend.
A northward push of Gulf moisture in progress as southwest gradient organizes over the southern and central US in response to western US height falls and high pressure situated over the East Coast. The daytime floor on temps will be near 40 degrees owing to the high dewpoint airmass, with a higher end potential near 50 degrees conditional on intensity/duration of rain. Renewed troughing behind a weakly forced fropa late Thursday will allow temperatures to settle near normal for the end of the week. Passage of the cold front Thursday night will bring strong low level cold advection and possibly a short period of gales in the initial northwest flow.
338 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 The warm front has continued to push inland and has reached College Station as of 3PM.
1021 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Near zonal flow has developed across the northern Plains, with the next upper trough now pushing into the Pacific NW. Portions of the northern and eastern foothills of the Black Hills may even see temps in the low 50s as downsloping winds enhance warming. A cold front will push through the region tonight into Thursday, cooling temperatures back into the teens and 20s Thursday.
Southerly flow will usher in a mild and moist atmosphere to central Indiana ahead of a cold front that will pass through Thursday night.
1021 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 Moderate snows will shift into the lower Idaho Panhandle and Washington Palouse today with a few showers lingering across the north.
Tomorrow afternoon, a high pressure ridge will remain stationary over northern FL, while low pressure tracks east across the Missouri Valley region. The result will be a strengthening southerly flow that will provide warm advection, and mixing that should help to scour out the low cloud cover by the afternoon. This should raise high temps into the lower 70s for much of the Valley.
12z continuing to show that the low clouds will remain well southeast of the area this afternoon, dramatically decreased the cloud cover. This snowmelt will load the lower boundary layer with moisture, and is expected to lead to some fog development tonight, mainly along and south of I-90. Thursday will see a cold front dropping into the area while a weak wave of low pressure ripples northeast through IL. Small-end rain/snow chances continue Thursday evening as a weak mid-level trough moves through.
329 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Showers that formed in a warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will move east this evening, leaving cloudy skies and patchy fog. An upper disturbance interacting with the cold front will produce widespread showers on Thursday.
233 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Weak high pressure over the region this morning will slip to our south tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
For Thursday a cold front will push across the state by early to mid afternoon switching winds to the northwest and helping to lift the low clouds and fog.
903 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 Cool and cloudy at times through today with a chance of showers, as a low pressure system moves east across the region.
A weak low pressure system will move across southern California tonight resulting in a drying trend across our area. Another upper low will drop into the Great Basin tonight and push a dry cold front through our area on Thursday. Later in the week high pressure will move into the area and bring slightly warmer temperatures.
1146 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Weak high pressure over the region this morning will slip to our south tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
However, we still trimmed a couple degrees off the high temps due to nearly no sunshine. Elsewhere around central Illinois, increasing cloud cover will be noted with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. Low pressure will track from the Plains across north-central Illinois on Thursday. With the low tracking across the area, there will be a significant north-south temperature gradient. Once the low tracks into Ohio, it will drag a cold front southward through Illinois Thursday night.
1221 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region later today into Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
Echos are showing up on radar over far northwestern North Dakota, but ceilings remain quite high so have kept precipitation chances on the low side this morning. Currently, a cold front was situated west-east across central Alberta/Saskatchewan. Today the cold front moves south, entering northwestern north Dakota around mid-afternoon, moving into southern ND later this evening, and exiting into South Dakota after midnight. Highs should range from the low and mid 30s north to upper 30s and lower 40s across southern ND. Timing for the cold front and snow chances is a bit slower in the latest model runs. The arrival of arctic air will result in lows tonight ranging from around 5 below in the Turtle Mountains to the lower teens above zero along the SD border.
1259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 No major weather impacts expected; however, there could be some light freezing drizzle over the Keweenaw Peninsula late tonight. The fairly quiet weather will linger into the evening hours before a cold front approaches the area overnight tonight and toward Thursday morning. Along and directly behind the cold front 850mb temperatures do not drop too quickly. This, along with shallow moisture will lead to mainly a light freezing drizzle potential late tonight over the Keweenaw, while most of the rest of the U. While not expecting much in the way of accumulation, it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to make untreated roadways and elevated surfaces slippery.
1151 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather today.
/Tonight/ Wswly flow aloft continues, as srn stream jet passes over the top of the resident upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico. Sly flow at the sfc in response to low pressure in the S/Central Plains will bring a warm front /currently along a line from Jacksonville to Shreveport to just s of El Dorado/ nwd overnight. Patchy drizzle and fog are expected to develop areawide, with areas that end of n of the warm front possibly seeing some dense fog. Temps overnight very tricky in the presence of the warm front. Will delay the issuance of the NPW because of the uncertainty of a Dense Fog Advisory becoming necessary overnight tonight along and north of the northward returning warm front.
The temperatures will continue to be very warm on Thursday in advance of a cold front that will move through the region Thursday night. The chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will pick up Thursday night behind the cold front as a southwesterly flow aloft prevails.
252 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Current surface analysis places low near Winnipeg, with cold front stretching off to the west near the international border. Upper level analysis places trough stretching from northern Manitoba towards the Pacific northwest, with potent wave sliding across the Canadian plains into the northern plains. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, cold front will continue to settle to the south with snow gradually developing from north to south.
However the preview of Spring will come to an end Thursday night as as strong cold front plows southward. Expect showers to develop along this front as the upstream upper level trough approaches.
132 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 Cool and cloudy through tonight, with a chance of showers as a low pressure system moves east across the region.
A cold front is moving through the region this afternoon. Looking at good chances for snow across the high country mainly this evening. Still looking for 1 to 3 inches of snow across the high country with little to none across the Magic Valley and Snake Plain tonight.
224 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Tonight through Thursday we will see a cold front currently near the international border sag south through the area with little fanfare. In the longer term the main story will be a significant change in the large scale flow pattern across the continent, with fairly zonal flow becoming much more amplified as an upper trough sets up across the west and ridging takes hold over the east.
343 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 As of 21Z Wednesday afternoon a western mid-level trough axis was positioned along the west coast. Tonight: The CWA will remain in the warm sector ahead of the next cold front. That being said, RAP/HRRR/NAM soundings suggest a stout dry layer within the low levels, which should keep things dry. Thursday: The aforementioned surface cold front looks to traverse the CWA from northwest to southeast throughout the day. These gusty winds coupled with RH values in the lower 30s percent will yield high to perhaps very high fire danger Thursday afternoon for areas mainly along and southeast I-35/335.
Have updated the forecast to bring sky cover up through the day with the low stratus already pushing into southern Iowa. Based on temperatures yesterday exceeding expectations, I will go along with guidance in even warmer temperatures this period. Fog on the other hand, continues to appear likely Thursday morning, possibly through early afternoon, as weak convergent flow at the surface combine with saturated snow melt air and dewpoints well above freezing. Thursday night, moisture sweeps out of the area, as a cold front arrives, cooling us into the teens and 20s, as this is still a snow covered CWA for the most part at that time.
Have already cancelled the winter weather advisory in the Lower Basin in Washington as precip has ended.
313 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Low pressure will move across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
1140 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts multi-stream troughs off the Pacific NW and CA coasts with a downstream belt of confluent mid-level flow from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, west-southwest winds will develop today in response to the progression of a weak surface cyclone from Saskatchewan into northern MN. with an attendant cold front surging through the mid-MO Valley during the afternoon and evening hours.
1230 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 Moderate snows will shift into the lower Idaho Panhandle this afternoon.
200 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 At 1 PM, high pressure was centered over the Carolinas and a cold front was located over Montana. The increase from the northwest is due to an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, the increase in the clouds from the south is due to a short wave trough moving northeast the Mid Mississippi River Valley. During the remainder of the morning and early afternoon, a cold front will move through the region. This frontal passage looks to be delayed some, so bumped up the high temperatures anywhere from 2 to 5F. The upper level trough axis swings through Thursday night with models indicating sufficient forcing for some light snow through the evening, but with minimal accumulations.
Some improvement has been seen along the inland portions of the coastal counties as a warm front slowly pushes inland.
/issued 938 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ Dense fog has developed across E TX ahead of a warm front this morning. Most guidance has visibilities coming up some by mid day, as the warm front finally pushes nwd. The warm front remains a good bit farther South with low to mid 60s down along I-10. The warm front will follow and lift in across much of the region by later today with little change on the models post frontal for us.
258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region through Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
1002 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Have updated the forecast to bring sky cover up through the day with the low stratus already pushing into southern Iowa. Based on temperatures yesterday exceeding expectations, I will go along with guidance in even warmer temperatures this period. Fog on the other hand, continues to appear likely Thursday morning, possibly through early afternoon, as weak convergent flow at the surface combine with saturated snow melt air and dewpoints well above freezing. Thursday night, moisture sweeps out of the area, as a cold front arrives, cooling us into the teens and 20s, as this is still a snow covered CWA for the most part at that time.
Closed low off the southern California coast will begin pushing onshore over the next few hours; phasing with a secondary trough pushing southward from the Pac Northwest. With upper level jet and trough passing overhead an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in these areas. The closed low sitting off the SoCal coast will be pushed into the Southwest United States today with the help from an approaching trough upstream moving into the Pacific NW. The closed low off the coast will provide increased moisture across much of the region mainly effecting cloud cover. Southwest flow will accompany the low and approaching trough today before north winds filter in behind the trough by Thursday.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure is over the Southeast.
These areas are expected to continue to improve as a warm front lifts nwd this aftn. /issued 938 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ Dense fog has developed across E TX ahead of a warm front this morning. Most guidance has visibilities coming up some by mid day, as the warm front finally pushes nwd. The warm front remains a good bit farther South with low to mid 60s down along I-10. The warm front will follow and lift in across much of the region by later today with little change on the models post frontal for us.
250 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 No major weather impacts expected; however, there could be some light freezing drizzle over the Keweenaw Peninsula late tonight. The fairly quiet weather will linger into the evening hours before a cold front approaches the area overnight tonight and toward Thursday morning. Along and directly behind the cold front 850mb temperatures do not drop too quickly. This, along with shallow moisture will lead to mainly a light freezing drizzle potential late tonight over the Keweenaw, while most of the rest of the U. While not expecting much in the way of accumulation, it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to make untreated roadways and elevated surfaces slippery.
The upper level low pressure system off the California coast will turn back to the east and weaken as it moves through Arizona and southern Utah this evening. An upper level trough is currently crossing through the Pacific Northwest. A remnant upper level low is offshore southern California and will cross the Southwest today into this evening. As the trough approaches that area this afternoon into this evening, precipitation is expected to develop.
Have stuck close to most guidance, but a couple of degrees cooler than some of the higher end guidance suggesting mid and upper 80s west. Sea fog will continue to be an issue during the day and Thursday night, however with even stronger winds Thursday night as pressure gradient tightens in response to approaching cold front, thinking fog development will be more limited.
1223 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Weak high pressure over the region this morning will slip to our south tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
Limited moisture circulating around the area of high pressure along with energy associated with a low pressure system will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning.
An upper level trough along the east coast flattens out and lifts northeastward.
329 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 An upper level trough is moving across the western Great Lakes this hour dragging a cold front into northern WI and central MN. High pressure is settled over our area as we are sandwiched between the cold front to the north and Harvey to the south. Highs tomorrow will be a few to several degrees cooler than today, reflecting the infiltration of Canadian air well depicted by 850 mb temp progs.
Models are still showing the upper ridge over the CWA tonight and Thursday. There is some CAPE over the mountains, foothills and Palmer ridge by Thursday afternoon, with nothing over the eastern plains. For pops, "chance"s in the high country, "slight chance"s to nothing over the plains both this evening and again Thursday in the afternoon. Weak upper level trof will move across Colorado Thursday night with weak QG ascent over Eastern Colorado.
608 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will slide across Pennsylvania tonight. A strong cold front will push south through the region Thursday.
345 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area early Thursday, but little if any rain is expected.