Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
444 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AS A 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TOWARDS THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPS REPORTED BY COOP SITES THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTHWARD AND FILLED. RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SO WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE CU DEVELOPMENT ESP INLAND APPEARS REASONABLE.
BY WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SOUTH FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIG WARMUP. GIVEN RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES. -HOWERTON SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT TEMPS ARE WARMER TODAY AND SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SO AM NOT TO EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF WIDESPREAD FOG.
300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH. MAIN FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF STATES KEEPING AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DML LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
150 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
223 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 We are looking at a very active weather period the next several days for SE NM and W TX as a slow-moving upper low (currently located over AZ) approaches the region from the west, significantly increasing rain chances as well as the potential for flooding/flash flooding.
133 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
220 PM MST TUE OCT 6 2015 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AZ. AMDAR UL WIND FIELDS AND EARLY AFTN SATELLITE LOOPS PLOT THE LOW CIRC CENTER SPANNING ACROSS MOHAVE/YAVAPAI COUNTIES WITH LINES OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ASCENT REGIONS/VORTICITY LOBES. WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. THE UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ PERSISTING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES NEARING MINUS 14-15C FOR WEDNESDAY.
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
320 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIVER OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY GET STRONG AS THE DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW GET CLOSER. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY START TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
613 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BRIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO SOUTHERN AZ BY WED MORN. SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM BRING A MINOR WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WED.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DIRECTED NORTHWEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
322 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridge will build over the forecast area through tonight with mostly clear skies, light winds and warmer temperatures.
231 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZ- NM-MEXICO TRIPLE POINT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA AS MUCH OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS DRIFTED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST SLOWLY INTO SONORA BY WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CA.
258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 Mid level ridging will continue over the PAH forecast area throughout most of the short term period while the nrn stream remains active, with shrtwv energy moving through every couple of days or so. This means dry and warmer-than-average weather can be expected for most of the period, with variable cloudiness. A more significant shrtwv is progged to swing a sfc cold front through our region early Fri. There are some timing differences in the 12Z runs of the models, notably the slow GEM (which depicts a flatter trof) and the rather quick GFS.
446 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZ- NM-MEXICO TRIPLE POINT WEDNESDAY.
42 LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS WX PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS COURTESY OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH- ERN MEXICO TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND. WHEN MODELS THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST. THIS SHIFT SHOULD ALL- OW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SE TX BY THE WEEK END. 41 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH. THE ANTICIPATED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALREADY APPARENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE REGION. FLANKED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRES SPINNING OVER SRN CA AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE SE COAST. AS THE UPR RIDGE CONTINUES EAST.
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
254 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BUT A LOW LEVEL TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WILL HELP TURN THE WIND FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS AT KBHM AND KTCL MAY BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE TROF STALLS OUT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARND 00Z. 58/ROSE HIGH PRESSURE.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER VEGAS IS SENDING AN AREA OF UPPER DIFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW UP NORTH TO WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CWA AS THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH BARELY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK CAPE. WE WILL GET UNDERNEATH THE ASCT TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW WITH NO GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS DISSIPATING. THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOMING TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WILL SAG SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO OLD MEXICO.
604 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NW AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT WITH PEAK HEATING ALREADY HERE DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CHANGE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE 70S IN MOST SPOTS.
226 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A SFC COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CLEAR AS WELL AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH NW MN MOVES E AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE DAKOTAS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 1019 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ANY CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE FLATTER ELEMENTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SPRINKLES OR VIRGA OVER VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER MOVING INTO MID WEEK.
Early this morning a closed upper low was located across southern CA. An upper level trough, embedded within the northern branch of the upper jet, was moving east across the northern plains. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a weak upper level trough lifting northeast across northeast KS into northwest MO. This minor upper trough was providing enough lift for some sprinkles across the eastern counties of the CWA this morning. Today and Tonight, the closed upper low across southeast CA will slowly dig southeast into southern AZ. This will cause a downstream upper ridge to amplify across the southern plains. We may see periods of mid and high clouds through the day but may see enough insolation to help temperatures to warm into the lower 70s, with some mid 70s possible across the southwest counties. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s.
WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BE.
303 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AFTER THE EXITING LOW.
320 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 Weak ridging aloft will keep conds dry overnight into Weds with light winds also expected.
145 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAV NUMBERS FOR THE LOWS. UPPER-LEVEL VORT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF. LINGERING CLOUDS AND AND COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
120 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE STARVEDCOLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
342 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE WRN AZ CLOSED LOW AS IT DRIFTS ESE ALONG THE AZ/NM/NRN OLD MX BORDER. WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1148 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
140 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.
242 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 High pressure builds across the region this week with temperatures returning to above average. Dry and mild weather into mid-week with a gradual warming trend as high pressure builds over the area.
306 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BRIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND HOT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER- LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AZ. AND A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA.
202 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1010 MB) IS LOCATED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. WITH A TROUGH REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
325 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 1054 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 70S ON THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
The large occluded upper low continues to move northeastward off the Southeast U. Another upper low is spinning over southeastern California with a ridge in between over the Central and Southern Plains and much of the Southeast.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.
/39 THE UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED NORTHEAST OFF SHORE JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND RIDGING ALOFT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 41 PATTERN STILL DOMINATED BY NW FLOW ALOFT AS SW CONUS UPPER LOW GETS CUTOFF FROM WESTERLIES AND SINKS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THU.
THERE IS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WIND ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING WILL BE RATHER STRONG. A LARGE WESTERN TROF WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH STRONG CYCLOGENSIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING NWD OVERNIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AREA AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO TX THIS WKND.
619 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA LEAVES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IT SHOULD LOOSE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING.
IT WILL BRING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE HILLS.
A LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE SNOW. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAZARDS DUE TO HOW LIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAK OF PRECIP. BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FOR THU WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
Soundings suggest the thermal profile stays below freezing aloft with ice crystals present however 1000-850mb thicknesses would suggest some melting with wet bulb temps near or actually above freezing if temps cooled down to wet bulb. Any precip should race off to the northeast after midday Thurs with winds becoming northwest as weak high pressure builds into the area for Christmas Eve.
WITH A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND JET ENERGY.
A weak cold front will bring north winds around 5 KTS late morning to midday Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will sag into the I-20 corridor and bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Big Country, although still above normal.
928 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY.
with an upper low developing over the southwest and eventually ejecting across the southern Plains.
Breezy to locally gusty winds are likely in the higher elevations.
SO ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO THE N AND W ON SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST S AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A STRONG WARM FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY FROM THE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE.
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATING THROUGH THE TROF. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA WITH AN INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTH INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES WERE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING.
331 PM PST WED DEC 23 2015 AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. WE ARE STILL GETTING A RELATIVELY MOIST FETCH IN MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE REGION.
954 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 UPDATE A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THOUGH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT IT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTH OR LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURE STAY ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BEGINS CARVING OUT A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WITH ONLY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY/SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WERE AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HR. AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING TOWARD SUNSET.
In addition, current light snow combined with below freezing temperatures will make for slick roadways through the Thursday morning commute, with several accidents already being reported. Moderate to heavy snow is likely to limit visibility to 1/2 mile or lower at times tonight and Thursday morning especially in the high terrain.
Have concentrated the highest PoP's for the rest of the afternoon in this area.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. BUT THEN COOL OFF A BIT CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW PRECIP HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AS BROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN GULF TO THE BAHAMAS BUILDS SLIGHTLY NWD. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED FROM JUST S OF DOUGLAS TO NAHUNTA THEN NEWD ALONG THE SC COAST BUT CONVERGENCE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS ATTM.
/issued 252 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015/ A broad upper level trough is over the western 2/3rds of the conus with the base of the trough over the CWA. This has resulted in westerly upper flow with the strong winds from the base of the trough mixing downward to the surface. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still about 10 degrees above normal behind a Pacific front. The upper trough is expected to deepen and strengthen over the western coast on Thursday allowing for the upper flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico to become southwesterly. The upper trough over the western coast will continue to deepen and is expected to begin to move over the Rocky Mountains on Christmas Day.
646 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COMING DAYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. RIDGING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
DID NOT ADD MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATION AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FEET.