Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
207 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
225 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND AWAY. A STRONG GRADIENT NORTH OF THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE NORTH AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 30 THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR A DRY AND MILD EARLY WINTER WEEKEND.
300 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO TODAY. RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AS STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS. AND NUDGED UP CONSENSUS GRIDS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING THROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO COLORADO. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH WITH MOST DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
1148 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 High pressure building into the region this morning is doing little to prevent the low stratus to remain trapped at about 1000 ft for most of Central Illinois. Have adjusted the forecast here and there, enhancing sky cover and adjusting the high temp for the day. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through the entire day. Have therefore undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
SO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY VALUES AND LOWERED SOME OF THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO. YOU CAN EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IN FACT THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE VOID OF THE AREA AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MAN WILL PRODUCE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND A WIND SHIFT MOVES THROUGH SAT MORNING IN TOW. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SAT EVENING.
BY DAYBREAK MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ERODED AS SHARP RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. RIDGE AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM TONIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER THE PAC NW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THE WINDS VEER EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRI WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
This feature will produce very light precipitation across the region and where valleys continue to deal with fairly strong valley inversions, pockets of freezing rain are still a possibility for a few locations across north central Idaho and western Montana. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to highlight the potential public impacts attributed to freezing rain. This feature will bring in cooler air with the snow level dropping to around 3000-4000 feet.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OZARKS TO C TX WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ANTICIPATE FINAL SHUTDOWN OF FLURRY POTENTIAL BY 15 UTC AS CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS SOUTHWEST UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY GIVEN AM CLOUDS/INVERSION FOLLOWED BY 925MB THERMAL TROF FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN LINE WITH LATEST WARMER MAV GUID FOLLOWING TWEAK TO LATEST MULTIMODEL BLEND WITH PRIOR FORECAST.
THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
905 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S INLAND AREAS. A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH BASE MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LEADING TO BKN TO OVC CIRRUS OVER THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM LUCEDALE MS TO CAMDEN AL AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
328 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID MS VALLEY. MUCH WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE REGION AT 850MB. A BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS HAS MADE IT TO MUNISING. FZDZ COULD BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN'S WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
1156 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK WEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
243 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH SOME CIRRUS FILLING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW RECENT TRENDS FOR TEMPS AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.
338 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
1018 AM MST THU DEC 3 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW MEXICO. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES.
126 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EAST TO CLOSEOUT THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK.
247 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE RIDGE. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. KEPT IT COOLER IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. THIS IS STILL WARMER THAN TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 850HPA WAA.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 315 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 ALL BUT AVIATION AND MARINE MILD AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INDUCING SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. THE INCIPIENT DRYING SHOULD ENCOURAGE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK. LONGWAVE RIDGING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE FRIDAY - AND HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/ISSUED 918 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015/ CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED WARMUP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS FATERNOON. SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
1242 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
TEMPS AROUND 4C AT 925HPA OVER CENLA AND ACADIANA WITH COLD ADVECTION COULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO REACH THE UPPER 50S THERE WITH THE LOW DECEMBER SUN. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EXITING EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROF FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY WITH THE CI SHIELD GETTING A LITTLE PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE. ALONG THE COAST WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
953 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE WEST OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE OZARKS HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
225 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. NO ATLANTIC FETCH WITH THIS FLOW AND SO NO MODERATION OF AIRMASS EXPECTED INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN AROUND FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE.
As of 230 am, water vapor imagery with 500 mb heights showed a deep closed low centered over Lake Erie while at the surface, high pressure was sprawled out across the central Plains. IR imagery showed a few passing clouds but generally mostly clear skies prevailed with readings in the low 30s. By late afternoon, the center of the high should be near Paducah. Plan on high pressure to be the dominant weather feature Friday into this weekend, bringing several dry and seasonable days to the area.
MEDIUM CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
255 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 High pressure is building into the Midwest this evening and is expected to continue through the overnight. However, residual moisture trapped in the low levels is keeping stratus over Central Illinois this afternoon. With the loss of the clouds, sfc temps should be able to drop fairly quickly, particularly with light and variable winds under the ridge. At this point, models are not clearing the clouds fast enough to model the low level RH correctly.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALOFT TODAY ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
While area soundings support warmer temperatures than advertised.
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE WEST OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR THE OZARKS HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PERSISTENT SHEATHS OF STRATIFORM RAIN STRETCH FROM NEAR THE LOWER KEYS TO THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. AND THEN STALL AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
1113 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1011 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015/ THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL BUT SUNNY DAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1237 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRYING FLOW FOR THE LOCAL AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 32 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 29 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0.
208 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 QUIET AND SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND light to moderate rain to Wit the exception of some of the Cascade valleys and northern mountains valleys the freezing rain threat has diminished. The Freezing Rain Advisory for the basin an the stagnation advisory were allowed to expire. Most of that area has risen above freezing, but there are some localized valleys/canyons that are being a little more tenacious. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin.
WAS SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING INVERSION SETTING UP COURTESY OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT. DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THUS THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.
1253 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK WEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HELD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
937 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
844 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015 WARM WEATHER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS. AS WELL AS COOLER WEATHER.
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. BUT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE.
THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL BUT SUNNY DAY.
1113 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE THE GULF OF MAINE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FROM NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO SRN IA INTO ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL YIELD MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO GO ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
1053 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 High pressure building into the region this morning is doing little to prevent the low stratus to remain trapped at about 1000 ft for most of Central Illinois. Have adjusted the forecast here and there, enhancing sky cover and adjusting the high temp for the day. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through the entire day. Have therefore undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
BREEZY TO WINDY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR SE GA/NE FL AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NORTH- CENTRAL FL.
LOWERED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER CHANCES BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND AN UPPER WAVE CLOSE BY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE DEG COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO WILL UPDATE THAT TREND. NOT GOING TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE LOWS WHICH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
210 AM MST SUN MAR 13 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT CLEAR AND THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE COMING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO COME UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS.
INCOMING COLD FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AT 12Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO ARKANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY.
600 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
355 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper low over the southern Panhandle this morning and will continue to track east over Oklahoma and Arkansas by tonight. At the surface, a closed low will move east along the Red river today with an associated dry Pacific cold front moving east through the forecast area. Even with the passage of the Pacific cold front, abundant sunshine and down- sloping surface winds will result in afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday with most areas seeing highs around 80 degrees. Clear skies tonight coupled with light winds will result in cooler post-frontal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAN TODAYS WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S. BUT NO MENTION OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE LOWER/MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. MON-TUE: DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAVE AREA IN FAIRLY DIFFLUENCE ZONAL FLOW WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. STILL HAVE HINTS OF PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL KS MON NIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY END OF PERIOD ARE BEING DRIVEN BY ECMWF WHICH IS QUITE AGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW LAGGING OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY. I AM KEEPING HOURLY POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOWER LIKELY RANGE. THIS INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS DURING THE PHASING OF THE TWO SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN A FUJIWARA PROCESS THAT LIFTS ENERGY NORTHEAST UP OVER ILLINOIS.
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Upper low moving over the Panhandle early this morning has only brought wind to parts of the area. A flat ridge builds in behind this low but will give way to weak troughing by midweek.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTHEAST WY WITH WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ND AND LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO SOUTHEAST WY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER OK WILL APPROACH SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
An upper level low will pass across the southern plains through Sunday. Monday will be very mild ahead of the aforementioned cold front with highs mostly in the upper 70s.
THIS LENDS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE E TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW IN EASTERN NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. AND THE FG-BLOCKING CLOUDS TO THE N. /ISSUED 149 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. EFFECTS FROM THIS FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BE FELT MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 UPPER LOW FINALLY HAS OPENED UP AND MEANDERED ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE RETREATING UPPER LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS A COMPACT AND FAST MOVG UPPER LOW APPROACHING IN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS LOW HAS A VERY PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. AND TIMING OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COMBINE TO BREAK A WEAK 850 MB CAP WITH OTHERWISE QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY STG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TSTMS. RAPIDLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW TRACK. ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK BEHIND THIS LOW.
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough axis lifting northeastward through the region with another upper trough moving eastward through the Texas panhandle. The highest chance of seeing rainfall appears to be across the Florida big bend and south central Georgia.
420 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SUPPER ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF I40. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THERE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND ALONG/EAST OF I35. THE LOW WILL EXIT OUR REGION AROUND 21Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND IT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TUE AM, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
430 AM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 13/00Z SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IS UPSTREAM OFF THE LEFT COAST OF CANADA. THE HIGH LATITUDES APPEAR TO BE IN A HIGHLY BLOCKED PATTERN WITH AN EXPANSIVE LOW ANCHORED OVER THE ARCTIC. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND HEADLINES ARE INCREASING AND THE WIND WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND POSSIBLY DUST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT.
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Impressive vapor imagery this morning of upper low currently over the TX Panhandle w/ strong height falls sampled as this low passed KABQ yesterday evening. Various higher resolution solutions suggest potential for stronger updrafts to develop across NW AR and also beneath the upper low core. Both regions would support large hail potential and any sustained updraft beneath the upper low core is likely to produce funnel clouds.