Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
228 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 An upper level low is currently situated near the tri-state border of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. This low will continue to gradually move east and then northeast through the rest of the afternoon and tonight before vacating into northern Minnesota and eventually southern Ontario as an open wave. Behind the upper low, subsidence will lead to diminishing clouds from west to east late this afternoon through the overnight hours. We transition to quasi-zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, which will promote mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Guidance still points to an upper low taking shape over the southern Plains Tuesday and meandering about the region through the rest of the week.
335 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Surface ridging/easterly low-level flow persists through the period as the region remains in the transition zone between the upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic Ocean/mid-Atlantic coast region and the closed upper low dropping into the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Lapse rates decrease even further tomorrow/Tuesday night continuing the low chances for any stronger to severe storms.
A flat upper level ridge is in place over the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will move very slowly east, building as it does so.
1052 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion Dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected today under a ridge of high pressure before breezy to windy conditions a times develop tonight through Tuesday with a chance for mainly mountain showers, though a few lighter showers cannot be ruled out at times elsewhere. Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. Upper level ridge shifts east across the Northern Rockies and MT today before flattening tonight as a broadening large scale trough moves into western Canada. Breezy to windy conditions continue on Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
An upper trough over the Dakotas is moving east with a zonal flow pushing into the area from the west.
Upper trough axis over eastern Colorado at midday, will arrive in western Kansas overnight, and evolve into the long-anticipated closed low over NW Texas by midday Tuesday. The closed low will continue to meander in North Texas through the day, and cloudiness on the northern periphery of its circulation is expected across the SE zones.
243 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 An U/L disturbance over the eastern Gulf of Mexico along with a weak area of low pressure off the southeast Florida coast is producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
348 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 The upper trough and strong cold front that brought stormy conditions this past weekend are getting kicked to the East Coast with a ridge building over the Western US. This pattern change will result in generally warmer and drier weather for western Neb this week. Potential exists for even cooler temps, especially with light winds in place, depending on the rate of clearing.
A surface cold front has moved through the area overnight and we will be under the influence of a few factors this afternoon. /issued 713 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ Cold front has moved through the region and while some low level stratus is evident along the TX/NM state line, VFR conditions are expected to persist outside of convection. /issued 324 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ An upper level low pressure trough stretched through the Rockies will split, with a portion re-centering across the Texas South Plains region later today and tonight. A cold front moving southward out of the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will cross most of the area before daybreak. The axis of the upper low will be just to our east by tomorrow morning, but the low will be slow to push eastward.
147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strong ridging will continue today with mainly eastern OH, the WV Panhandle, and Western PA remaining sunny. Weak flow under a ridge of high pressure will continue through tonight and into Tuesday.
This weak trough will quickly move eastward across northern Montana and bring little to no chance of precipitation from Billings eastward. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and adjacent foothills in this flow pattern but otherwise dry conditions should dominate the weather over the lower elevations.
255 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected today under a ridge of high pressure before breezy to windy conditions a times develop tonight through Tuesday with a chance for mainly mountain showers, though a few lighter showers cannot be ruled out at times elsewhere. Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. Upper level ridge continues over the area through this evening prior to flattening with the approach of the next trough tracking north of the area. Windy conditions continue through Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
310 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 As of 19Z Monday afternoon an amplified midlevel trough stretched along the lee of the Rockies with multiple perturbations within the meridional flow across TX/OK/KS. An attendant surface and 850 mb low is progged to deepen across eastern OK, which will cause winds to the north of the 850 mb low to back to the east, setting up a convergence zone along the inverted 850 mb trough axis. With the 850 mb trough remaining parallel to the mean flow through the night, the threat for a prolonged heavy rainfall event has increased.
Though a lull in convection is shaping up for the next 2-3 hours near the Lower/Middle Keys, more thunderstorm activity currently over Cuba will spread north through the Straits early this afternoon and reach the Keys around mid-afternoon. Southerly flow will gradually decrease through tonight as an east-west low pressure trough across South Florida lifts off to the north.
210 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 An upper low continues to be poised across western MT this morning with a rather sharp trough running into northern Chihuahua.
(This evening through Tuesday) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northward with mid to upper trough and MCV this afternoon and tonight. Additional chances will then return to the south late tonight as the mid to upper trough axis swings through north central TX.
For now expecting these showers to die off by early evening and then dry through tomorrow as heights rise due to the upper level low moving off to the east.
An upper low continues working across the Central Plains this afternoon, which will influence our weather heading into tonight, mainly for portions of west-central Minnesota. Forcing is being provided by an upper trough that is becoming increasingly cut off as we head into the evening.
Overnight GOES-R WV/IR loop showed the upper trough axis along the Front Range, with a short wave over the Central Plains. A Southern Plains cut-off low drifts east toward the Lower MS Valley through late week before weakening. Meanwhile, the CWA will be dominated by an amplifying ridge aloft during the latter part of the week and weekend.
Temperatures will the similar and dewpoints may be just a notch warmer.
Otherwise high pressure off the sern CONUS coast continues to ridge wwd over the nrn Gulf with ample moisture and little if any capping allowing for an occasional shower or thunderstorm.
Any tornado threat will likely be landspout in nature given the low level stretching potential and lack of overall surface flow.
As of 2 PM, convective temperatures in the lower to mid 80s have been reached. Slow moving upper level low will continue to provide near daily chances for thunderstorms through the week. This weekend, the flow turns northwest and cooler and drier air is expected. Discussion: Large scale flow still dominated by a slow moving upper level low that eventually closes off. While it may look like another cut-off low system, there is a wave across Canada that is expected to move the closed low to the east and usher in NW flow and high pressure for the weekend.
Persistent upper-level ridging remains in place across the eastern U. Strong Bermuda High and low pressure over the Oklahoma area will be the cause of this continued southwesterly flow advecting Gulf moisture and warm temperatures into the forecast area.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the week. Upper level ridging will continue to build into the area today with a significant uptick in warm air advection.
/Updated at 1246 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ An upper level trough over the MS River Valley and ridge over the Bahamas will allow south to southeasterly flow to remain over the state through Tuesday afternoon. This will lower temperatures Tuesday a couple of degrees cooler than today. there is more forcing with low pressure in the trough moving to the east.
253 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Brisk nly flow at the surface and aloft across the area today behind departing upper trough. Will keep a low chance for convection going into the evening over the higher terrain, though anything that develops at this point will be spotty and weak. Skies clear after sunset with winds decreasing, and many mountain valleys will drop to near or below freezing by early Tuesday morning. Upper trough and developing low sink drift slowly sewd into TX on Tue, keeping CO under nly flow another day.
Possible Thunderstorms and Cooler. As an upper low moves east Tuesday, flow aloft, over West Central Texas, will be mainly from the northwest. Otherwise, highs on Tuesday will be cooler than usual late May highs, with surface winds continuing from the north.
Dry day Tuesday as upper ridge moves over the CWA.
327 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strong ridging will continue today with mainly eastern OH, the WV Panhandle, and Western PA remaining sunny. Weak flow under a ridge of high pressure will continue through tonight and into Tuesday.
A large-scale trough will extend across the central and southern Plains, becoming a closed low across the southern Plains by mid-week.
Still leaning toward a model consensus solution as have previously, but discounting the latest NAM solution per northward movement of closed upper level low as late Thu progresses. Aloft, this weather pattern still consist of an upper level blocking ridge remaining quasi stationary and enhanced across locations approaching U. A cut off upper level low is still expected to drop into southern plains and remains quasi stationary across this region through at least Thu afternoon hours. Latest GFS/ECMWF model solutions showing that upper level low will dissipate as it drifts northeastward but open up across mid state region as Fri progresses.
The airmass will become increasingly dry and stable tonight into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds in from the west. The ridge axis will be oriented southwest to northeast across CO by Tuesday afternoon.
The forecast pattern remains mostly unchanged Tuesday as the Ohio Valley continues to feel the effects of being between the upper level ridging over the US east coast and a developing cutoff low over TX & OK.
A weak cold front is expected to approach the area late tonight into early Tuesday morning and bring strong to severe thunderstorms with and ahead of its passage.
1133 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 The mid level trough axis pushing east of the Divide leaves the CWA under strong north-northwest flow aloft. Cooler air tied with this system will be pushed eastward, as a warmer air mass works its way in from the west and a ridge of high pressure builds over the western CONUS. A passing Canadian low, will deamplify ridging over the western CONUS, keeping zonal flow aloft through Tuesday. Mid to high level moisture spilling over the deamplified ridge will result in an increase in afternoon cloud cover.
1215 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over the area with high pressure off to the NE. Cooler temps today with ENE flow. Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in the low/mid 60s. Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin moves up the coast.
Temperatures should warm up into the lower 70s with the sunshine.
As the upper level trough continues to move east, would expect this activity to remain intact and continue to move to the east. As the upper level trough works through the area a few thunderstorms may still develop across our southern areas but this activity should remain isolated and on the weaker side due to limited instability. /issued 210 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ An upper low continues to be poised across western MT this morning with a rather sharp trough running into northern Chihuahua.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the week.
Then as the boundary gets closer to the CWA Wed and Wed night, shower and storm chances will increase across the area with the highest chances initially in the west.
306 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020 he closed low and its associated trough will slowly move east of the Rockies and weaken tonight and tomorrow. Drier northwest flow will move in behind this trough and dominate the weather pattern trough tomorrow. Warm-air advection over the forecast area will allow temperatures to warm with high temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Large upper level low pressure area spinning over the western dakotas late this afternoon was shown by the models to move east through the night, weaken and open up into Tuesday. The lift from this trough was bringing some light showers to the east of the Missouri River.
607 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strong ridging over the forecast area will bring another day of well above normal temperatures tomorrow and also keep a lid on any convection.
343 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020 The closed low and it's associated trough will slowly move east of the Rockies and weaken tonight and tomorrow. Drier northwest flow will move in behind this trough and dominate the weather pattern through tomorrow. Warm-air advection over the forecast area will allow temperatures to warm with high temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. Upper level ridge continues over the area through this evening prior to flattening with the approach of the next trough tracking north of the area. Windy conditions continue through Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through the rest of the week bringing above normal temperatures for the end of May. Some relief from the ridge will be possible by the weekend along with chances for dry thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure continues to build in over the desert southwest bringing warming temperatures and quiet weather.
650 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 The upper trough and strong cold front that brought stormy conditions this past weekend are getting kicked to the East Coast with a ridge building over the Western US. This pattern change will result in generally warmer and drier weather for western Neb this week. Potential exists for even cooler temps, especially with light winds in place, depending on the rate of clearing.
This afternoon through Tuesday night This afternoon will be mainly dry and warmer, with maybe some very isolated showers in the northern Bighorn mountains.
839 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strong ridging over the forecast area will bring another day of well above normal temperatures tomorrow and also keep a lid on any convection.
Lowe should be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees tonight with slightly cooler temperatures expected tomorrow compared to the last few days. Guidance still points to an upper low taking shape over the southern Plains Tuesday and meandering about the region through the rest of the week.
958 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 Upper level trough extended from northwest ND to New Mexico. North end of upper trough will shear off and move into southeast MAN by 18Z Tue. East of upper trough, moisture continues to move northward into northwest MN. Upper level trough and FGEN will provide the forcing. An upper low continues working across the Central Plains this afternoon, which will influence our weather heading into tonight, mainly for portions of west-central Minnesota. Forcing is being provided by an upper trough that is becoming increasingly cut off as we head into the evening.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 81 65 81 67 / 20 30 30 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 83 65 80 65 / 20 30 30 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 64 80 65 / 20 30 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 85 62 76 63 / 20 20 20 50 30.
Meanwhile, an associated east/west aligned surface through lower level trough has lifted northward and now stretches across Central Florida. In addition, the trough across Florida will continue to slide northward. A troughing lifting northward through Central Florida will result gentle to moderate southerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
301 PM PDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will continue to build over the region with dangerous heat this week.
An upper level low is currently situated near the tri-state border of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. This low will continue to gradually move east and then northeast through the rest of the afternoon and tonight before vacating into northern Minnesota and eventually southern Ontario as an open wave. Behind the upper low, subsidence will lead to diminishing clouds from west to east late this afternoon through the overnight hours. We transition to quasi-zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, which will promote mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As of 19Z Monday afternoon an amplified midlevel trough stretched along the lee of the Rockies with multiple perturbations within the meridional flow across TX/OK/KS. An attendant surface and 850 mb low is progged to deepen across eastern OK, which will cause winds to the north of the 850 mb low to back to the east, setting up a convergence zone along the inverted 850 mb trough axis. With the 850 mb trough remaining parallel to the mean flow through the night, the threat for a prolonged heavy rainfall event has increased.
Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. /ISSUED 548 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020/ Upper level ridge continues over the area through this evening prior to flattening with the approach of the next trough tracking north of the area. Windy conditions continue through Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
Concur with SPC regarding the Slight Risk given the high CAPE values (2500-4000 J/kg over the CNTRL/WRN CWA per latest MSAS), significant 0-6km vertical shear.
657 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northward with mid to upper trough and MCV this afternoon and tonight. Additional chances will then return to the south late tonight as the mid to upper trough axis swings through north central TX.
The wave will bring a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday morning. An upper trough over the Dakotas is moving east with a zonal flow pushing into the area from the west.
808 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Showers are dissipating over the higher terrain this evening and dry conditions are expected tonight. The rest of the forecast remains on track for a warmer and dry day tomorrow. The airmass will become increasingly dry and stable tonight into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds in from the west. The ridge axis will be oriented southwest to northeast across CO by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will ease up tonight as high pressure begins to influence the region. Temperatures will continue to rise through the week as the ridge moves overhead.
1154 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 The active weather pattern will continue as a deep upper level trough slowly moves east across the Plains. Storms closer to the Highway 65 corridor have shown a little more organization with even some brief mid-level rotation. Given the high moisture content in the lower atmosphere and the approaching short wave energy, short term models indicate only a weak nocturnal inversion with little capping to surface- based parcels. Showers and thunderstorms will then remain possible throughout the day as upper level energy closes off in the Red River Valley region with a trough axis extending north of this feature through the central Plains. High temperatures on Tuesday should be a bit cooler than today with expected cloud cover and precipitation.
147 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020 The region will remain on the western edge of high pressure located off the East Coast through tonight.
Rising heights behind today's trough and ahead of another jet streak moving across the international border on Wednesday will promote warmer temps to advect over the region.
This continues as the region stays in the transition zone between the upper ridge over the western Atlantic, and the large closed upper low over the central and southern plains states.
In the upper levels, a deepening upper low was centered near the Panhandles Region of Texas and Oklahoma. As the upper low drifts/shifts toward the Red River Valley, it will continue to send troughs through the region and interact with the boundary, which should shift a little further east into Arkansas today and tonight.
333 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Weak upper level low pressure system will slowly edge just east of the area for the coming 24 hours. After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will climb into the high 70s or low 80s, slightly below normal. Any showers should dissipate quickly by early this evening with another cool and dry night expected just on the back side of the weak upper low. The upper low will be to our east by tomorrow morning.
104 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
1140 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 The upper trough and strong cold front that brought stormy conditions this past weekend are getting kicked to the East Coast with a ridge building over the Western US. This pattern change will result in generally warmer and drier weather for western Neb this week. Potential exists for even cooler temps, especially with light winds in place, depending on the rate of clearing.
For the remainder of the week, an upper low will swing through the Canadian prairies while a ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. The cyclonic flow under the upper low will drop temperatures back closer to normal for late May for a few days before the ridge pushes east.