Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1144 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THIS IS PARTIALLY A RESULT TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST AND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A BIT AND SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN POINT TOWARD ANOTHER COOLING TREND FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND DIPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BRING EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS WILL AT LEAST GIVE THE AREA SOME CHANCE FOR DAILY CONVECTION.
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER PLAINS/ROCKIES.
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS.
1137 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WE HAVE SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR MONDAY THE TREND WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR 2-3 DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TRACKING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
WHILE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SPOTTY ACCAS CLOUDS NEAR THE TROUGH BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NM AND WEST TX UP INTO OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS NEAR THAT WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH WARMER HIGHS MONDAY.
AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ROUGHLY WITHING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EXTENDS FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY AND POSSIBLE NORTH TO NEAR RUGBY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILD. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO THE MIX.
703 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2015 The summer time upper level ridge of high pressure is currently centered over East Texas this morning. Surface dewpoints will be in the lower to middle 70s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 with the highest values north of the I-44 corridor into southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.
/ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.
THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS THE STUBBORN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVERTOP TEXAS LIKE A PROTECTIVE MOTHER HEN KEEPING HER EGGS WARM.
before weak cold front ushers in slightly cooler air Monday night. models continue to show a well- defined theta-e ridge. colocated with the main 850-hPa thermal ridge Monday afternoon. organized severe convection this afternoon across the upper Miss Rvr Vly is expected to dive east-southeast into the Lower Missouri Vly overnight tonight. main cold front expected to begin sliding south through the area late Monday afternoon and evening.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 74 93 75 / 40 20 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 72 89 73 / 60 40 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 72 89 74 / 60 40 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 68 86 68 / 60 50 60 60.
430 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL BE REINFORCED BY A WEAK VORT DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC TONIGHT AND MON. AND THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH WED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NRN CA. AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA THU. THIS LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S CENTRAL STATES WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WWD LATE FRI INTO SAT.
636 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
340 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER SRN LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY. WEAK WAA AND PARTIAL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER BY THE LAKES AS IS TYPICAL). WARM FRONT ITSELF WILL WASH OUT.
135 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 WV SAT LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN NEVADA. THE SOUTHERN RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
Weak Pacific cold front associated with the upper system will move southeast through the forecast area tonight.
247 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THIS RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD IS BLOCKED BY A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. BUT WILL REQUIRE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE LOW ENERGY AIRMASS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE RUNNING RIGHT ALONG THE TOP OF THE STRENGTHENING500MB RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER TOP OF FLATTENED RIDGE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO AMPLIFY A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE PRECIP DOES OCCUR. WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
304 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S FAR EAST/NORTHEAST/USUAL COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U. WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING L/W TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ACT AS A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE NW PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER US ON SUNDAY. WHILE AT THE SFC THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
Under less convective coverage and a few more peaks at the sun, temps are expected to rise mostly into the low and mid 80s.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY BREEZE COURTESY OF LARGE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL. STATUS QUO NEXT H24 AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOWS MINIMAL CHG IN STRENGTH/POSN AND MID/UPPER RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVHD.
ALTHOUGH SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED AFT 7Z ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT THAT WAS IN NORTHERN IOWA. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AT PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDED BY THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL RESULT. THE LOW TAKES ITS TIME GETTING OUT OF THE AREA.
325 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE.
639 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
353 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS NEVADA TODAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A WARMER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE HIGHER ROADS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80, HAVE VERY DENSE PATCHES OF FOG AND EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF TRAVELING EARLY THIS MORNING.
325 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYING AND SLOW WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
158 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE LOW KEEPS ON SHIFTING TOWARD THE PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR RUNOFF ISSUES AND SLIDES. WE WILL STARTING SHOWERS THIN OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP.
MEANWHILE A STRONG 100KT JET WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HELP DEEPEN THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z SUNDAY. SUB- FREEZING 850MB TEMPS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
307 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SALT LAKE CITY AT THIS HOUR WHICH MATCHES NICELY WITH MODEL OUTPUT. THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE PLAINS STATES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF SAID LOW BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE FACE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN DEW POINTS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S. WITH THE HIGH PW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER SRN LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY. WEAK WAA AND PARTIAL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER BY THE LAKES AS IS TYPICAL). WARM FRONT ITSELF WILL WASH OUT.
436 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME FOR TODAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW JUXTAPOSED BY DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND INCREASED WARMING IN THE 85H-70H LAYER THAT WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY.
120 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
440 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
THE MOST INTERESTING THING NOW SHOWING UP FOR SUNDAY IS THAT THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ALL HOLD BACK THE OCCLUDED /COLD-CORE/ UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION ANYWHERE FROM NEAR KBIS TO KJMS.
427 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL PUMP SUMMERTIME WEATHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER TOP OF FLATTENED RIDGE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO AMPLIFY A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE.
340 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. PROGS SHOW THIS HIGH MOISTURE AIR MASS TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH TO THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE PWAT STILLS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 1.
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SOULD PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
141 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015 A large cyclone swirling over the Rockies provided a moisture advection / southwest flow regime over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. As the low level jet kicks in, thunderstorms will once again develop, with the better chances for areas south of Interstate 44.
316 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND BY 12Z SUNDAY IT WILL LIFT INTO NEBRASKA. QG ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY BECAUSE OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING CLOSED LOW. A SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
154 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
638 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND OUT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY FORCING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEAR CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT COOLER AIR NEAR THE COAST. WITH WARMER READINGS INLAND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE TOO SLOW SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS ACCORDING TO ACARS/TAMDAR OBS.
324 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
However, the main focus for precipitation today remains across southwest Montana (Butte/Blackfoot Region) where moisture wrapping around a low pressure system moving northeast across Yellowstone National Park will keep steady light rain falling throughout the morning and into much of the afternoon. Model data supports a significant decrease in precipitation potential Sunday morning which may even extend into the afternoon, depending upon the strength of any ridging which is forecast to develop between weather systems.
458 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015 (Today and Tonight) A dry line has pushed east into the forecast area early this morning beneath a broad upper level low pressure area.
THERE IS EVIDENCE ON THE OSBORNE BRIDGE CAMERA THAT IT'S HAPPENING. THE BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE LOW KEEPS ON SHIFTING TOWARD THE PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR RUNOFF ISSUES AND SLIDES. WE WILL STARTING SHOWERS THIN OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS RIDGING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY.
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
132 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED OVER THE AERODROMES. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
424 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A BROAD TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHAT IS LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW. SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH 590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL. /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this morning. Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up and will suppress overall precipitation chances. The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains.
1056 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
930 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING LONG WAVE OFFSHORE, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INLAND TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1051 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE TX SUPPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KIAH WHICH IMPACTED KGLS THE MOST. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN STABILIZED WITH CONVECTION TODAY SINCE UPPER LOW STILL SHOULD BE IN THE AREA AND PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES. WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL GENERALLY CALL FOR LOWER POPS WELL INLAND (WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE) AND HIGHER POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE (WHERE BOTH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE). IT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WARMER WELL INLAND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND FEWER STORMS.
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF.
1013 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION.
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
THEREFORE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT REGION. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AM EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.