Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures turned out to be a lot cooler than expected and as a result the low temperature for tonight was bumped down with the help of 00Z model guidance.
The trough is still passing across NV as it slowly moves to the east out of the region. Moisture and instability associated with the trough is causing scattered snow showers across northern and central NV. A Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect for elevations above 6500 feet in White Pine County until the threat of the high snow amounts ends. Snow accumulations on the roads will remain unlikely until the overnight hours as the road surface temperatures have remained above freezing this afternoon. The being said icy patches can occur already on the roads and especially on bridges. Winds will be weak today but will pick up and be breezy from the north on Thursday once the trough progresses eastward. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s while the lows will be in the single digits to 20s.
733 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Aviation -- Dry and unseasonably warm Thursday and Thursday night -- An amplified upper pattern continues with a deep phased trough over the intermountain west and broader ridging extending to the East Coast.
A deep ridge continues to extend across the east coast down over mainland Florida.
Cold nighttime temperatures will bring the threat of freezing temperatures to much of the area tonight and Thursday night.
623 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Low-level southerly flow has increased ahead of the approaching upper level trough with surface dewpoints forecast to rise into the 60s tonight and tomorrow across the forecast area.
706 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. An upper closed low will develop over E NC. Light NE surface winds expected, with lows in the lower to mid 50s. The upper low will continue to push off to the east Thursday with NW flow aloft leading to drier air over the forecast area. Thursday night should be a decent radiational cooling night with mostly clear skies and high pressure ridging into the area, although the high will be centered to the NE and clouds may move in late, so not ideal. Lows drop into the low 50s.
502 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure builds in from the west and crests over the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure will then settle offshore with building heights aloft setting up a significant warming trend over the weekend.
758 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure overhead will last through the end of the week with well above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
These areas also have the coldest temperatures in place this afternoon after the passage of a Canadian cold front, which will allow minor accumulations on roadways to continue into the evening commute. With overall warmer temperatures in place for these areas, accumulations should be minimal, however, mountain passes (in particular Lost Trail, MacDonald and Homestake Pass) may see brief accumulations and slick spots through this evening.
630 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) A coastal trough remains parked just offshore which has lead to continued cloud cover and northerly winds across the region and in turn temperatures remain below normal early this afternoon. The trough will slowly erode offshore allowing southerly winds to eventually return to the CWA later into tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Thursday, as high pressure continues to build and southerly winds return. Temperatures will remain warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Upper low seen in H20 vapor imagery near Louisville this afternoon will open up and move to the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Meanwhile, warm advection and plenty of sunshine will result in well above normal afternoon highs in the lower 70s.
933 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure builds in from the west and crests over the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure will then settle offshore with building heights aloft setting up a significant warming trend over the weekend.
will continue to move off of the coast and begin to dig S/SSE parallel to the coast as mid-level ridging amplifies from the north-central Gulf through the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
639 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure overhead will last through the end of the week with well above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper trough over ID/NV/CA this morning swings east into UT/AZ today and CO/NM tonight. The trough will pass across the region Friday. The upper trough will push a Pacific front through the region tonight and Friday morning leaving a W wind in its wake. Temperatures Friday will be about 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. And while the low levels are moist the wind has kept fog from developing. Strong wind aloft associated with the upper trough will swing across the mountains Late tonight and Friday. Have added the Davis Mountains to the High Wind Watch already in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday.
Friday will be mostly sunny with the northeast winds increasing to around 10 mph by afternoon and high temperatures slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s.
1148 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 A warm southwest flow will continue through Friday as high pressure moves slowly across the Appalachians to the eastern seaboard. A strong 500 mb ridge will ensure plenty of clear sky, enabling highs to reach well into the 70s.
Ridging aloft continuing to build into the region today, and high pressure at the surface wedged into the forecast area from the northeast, will continue to promote quiet weather across the CWA through tonight.
307 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure builds in from the west and crests over the region today. High pressure will then settle offshore with building heights aloft setting up a significant warming trend over the weekend.
This morning skies are clear and a building upper ridge will bring plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures today. The ridge axis will pass overhead late tonight and increasing southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints on Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper trough over ID/NV/CA this morning swings east into UT/AZ today and CO/NM tonight. The trough will pass across the region Friday. The upper trough will push a Pacific front through the region tonight and Friday morning leaving a W wind in its wake. Temperatures Friday will be about 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. And while the low levels are moist the wind has kept fog from developing. With the upper trough approaching there will be a chance of thunderstorms tonight across the NE Permian Basin. Strong wind aloft associated with the upper trough will swing across the mountains Late tonight and Friday. Have added the Davis Mountains to the High Wind Watch already in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday.
As the pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an approaching cold front, southerly winds will increase to 10-20mph with gusts reaching 20-25mph today. As southerly winds persist and mid/high cloud cover increases from the west, lows tonight will be considerably warmer than they have been in recent nights. ranging from the middle 50s near the Indiana border to the lower 60s in the Illinois River Valley. Cold front across the Plains will hit the brakes as it encounters a prominent upper ridge extending from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Great Lakes. High temperatures will be held in the lower 70s across the far N/NW CWA where clouds and showers will be most prevalent, but will soar into the middle to upper 70s elsewhere.
Trends in recent days showing a slower progression of the cold front but faster progression of the upper trough as models struggle with the 170-200 knot upper jet centered near 50N/150W.
1045 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Tonight) No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast package this Wed evening, as a large dome of high pressure continues to build eastward into the TN/OH Valley regions.
We have reissued winter weather advisories for the Flathead Valley and US-2 corridor up to Marias Pass due to ongoing showers and the potential for icy spots to develop as temperatures cool into the lower 20s this morning. Before snow levels rise to 5500 to 6000 feet Friday night a trace to 3 inches of snow may fall in valleys, with the highest amounts in northwest Montana.
331 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Surface and upper level ridging over the region will bring dry weather and warming temperatures through the end of the week.
Tonight Heading into tonight, the same pattern will remain in place locally with troughing noted to our west that will be of focus in the long- term period.
221 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Current surface map places cold front across central South Dakota into northern Nebraska with best pressure rise bubble shifting east of the Black Hills. Jet streak lifting ahead of upper trof will interact with mid level baroclinic zone, brining some light snow.
Across the region this afternoon, mid- and upper-level cloud cover associated with an upper low has kept temperatures in check, with current readings across central KY and southern IN generally in the mid-60s. Expect a clearing trend across our region this evening as the upper low moves off to the east and drier air moves in from the west. Have leaned on the cooler side of guidance for temperatures overnight given the "departing high" setup, which typically under performs blended guidance temperatures. Expect low temperatures Thursday morning to fall into the mid-to-upper 40s, with cooler readings expected in valleys and slightly warmer readings expected in the urban heat centers. On Thursday, above-normal temperatures return in earnest as mid- level ridging builds across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Will maintain current noon (18Z) expiration time as winds are expected to diminish today as high pressure moves into the area. Temperatures will be colder with highs in the 30s in most places as dry upper trough moves through the area. After a cold night with mostly clear skies, warmer air moves back into the area on Friday as trough moves to the east and NW flow aloft turns zonal during the day.
1245 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Low-level southerly flow has increased ahead of the approaching upper level trough with surface dewpoints forecast to rise into the 60s tonight and tomorrow across the forecast area.
High pressure builds to the north of the region with some locally dense fog this morning.
422 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today through Friday) A Rossby wave train continues to amplify across North America through the short term, which will intensify the deepening trough in the Western CONUS and continue to support the ridging pattern in the east. This pattern will result in a high pressure regime locally characterized by light winds, mostly clear skies, and relatively dry conditions with PWATs between 0.
1242 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) A coastal trough remains parked just offshore which has lead to continued cloud cover and northerly winds across the region and in turn temperatures remain below normal early this afternoon. The trough will slowly erode offshore allowing southerly winds to eventually return to the CWA later into tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Thursday, as high pressure continues to build and southerly winds return. Temperatures will remain warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 70s.
135 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Aviation -- Dry and unseasonably warm Thursday and Thursday night -- An amplified upper pattern continues with a deep phased trough over the intermountain west and broader ridging extending to the East Coast.
A trough of low pressure will deepen over Southern California this morning. This trough of low pressure will be responsible for the possibility of light snow along Interstate 5 over Tejon Pass and along Highway 58 over Tehachapi Pass early this morning. The trough of low pressure will move eastward into the Great Basin this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Moist southerly flow will be the order of the day once again for west central Texas ahead of a deep upper-level trough approaching from the western US. Plenty of instability will be in place with dewpoints in the low 60s. A few showers may develop across the Hill Country where dewpoints are the highest.
Cooler and drier air is beginning to work its way into the region as north to east surface gradient tightens, and dew points have lowered into the 20s to mid 30s across the foothills and northern Sacramento Valley.
749 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure builds to the north of the region with some locally dense fog this morning.
In the low levels we have some showers moving along through the northeast flow that is also contributing to our cloud cover. A more widespread freshening of breezes is likely to occur by Friday night as a high pressure cell moves out and over the western North Atlantic and builds southward across the region.
Key Messages: * A large gradient in afternoon temperatures is expected as a cold front works its way across the local area this afternoon.
631 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper trough over ID/NV/CA this morning swings east into UT/AZ today and CO/NM tonight. The trough will pass across the region Friday. The upper trough will push a Pacific front through the region tonight and Friday morning leaving a W wind in its wake. Temperatures Friday will be about 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. And while the low levels are moist the wind has kept fog from developing. With the upper trough approaching there will be a chance of thunderstorms tonight across the NE Permian Basin. Strong wind aloft associated with the upper trough will swing across the mountains Late tonight and Friday. Have added the Davis Mountains to the High Wind Watch already in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday.
After a cold morning Friday, fair and warmer weather is expected through the weekend.
An upper level low continues to dig southward over SOCAL early this morning, the low center is SW of Las Vegas. A cold front was noted near Kingman (AZ), with pre-frontal, upslope showers falling along the Mogollon Rim. This entire pattern will shift eastward today, as the upper low bottoms out and shears across Arizona. Expect about 12 additional hours of precipitation as a result, with two distinct periods of enhanced precipitation, These will be associated with the actual cold front due later this morning , and then the deeply saturated and unstable cold pool precipitation this afternoon. After tonight, the low begins to fill and move eastward, expect very cold temperatures Friday morning.
The high clouds should diminish during the day, allowing for another day with record or near record high temperatures. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will arrive from west to east tonight as a cold front approaches. Temperatures will turn cooler across northcentral Wisconsin during the afternoon as the cold front moves through.
(Today through Friday) One and a half more days of relatively quiet weather is expected as high pressure continues to sit over the northern gulf coast.
626 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Moist southerly flow will be the order of the day once again for west central Texas ahead of a deep upper-level trough approaching from the western US. Plenty of instability will be in place with dewpoints in the low 60s. A few showers may develop across the Hill Country where dewpoints are the highest.
Otherwise, a pleasant fall (cool) day is expected as weak ridging builds over the area.
(Today through Friday) A Rossby wave train continues to amplify across North America through the short term, which will intensify the deepening trough in the Western CONUS and continue to support the ridging pattern in the east. This pattern will result in a high pressure regime locally characterized by light winds, mostly clear skies, and relatively dry conditions with PWATs between 0.
539 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Current surface map places cold front across central South Dakota into northern Nebraska with best pressure rise bubble shifting east of the Black Hills. Jet streak lifting ahead of upper trof will interact with mid level baroclinic zone, brining some light snow.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail over Deep South Texas through the period as a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Mild temperatures are expected tonight with lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures will prevail on Friday with highs ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Friday will be breezy as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
A warm front will bring light rain late tonight and Friday, mainly for the northern portion of the region.
554 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today through Friday) As the upper low continues to slide away from the area, we could continue to see some clouds in the northeast. Overnight, high pressure to our north will shift the winds to more of an easterly flow.
509 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Key Messages: * A large gradient in afternoon temperatures is expected as a cold front works its way across the local area this afternoon.
1212 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Moist southerly flow will be the order of the day once again for west central Texas ahead of a deep upper-level trough approaching from the western US. Plenty of instability will be in place with dewpoints in the low 60s. A few showers may develop across the Hill Country where dewpoints are the highest.
(Tonight) High pressure at the surface promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley, with a mostly clear sky and southerly breezes making for a very mild day. Temperatures will fall off quickly after sunset, eventually bottoming out in the low to mid 50s by early Friday morning.
Even warmer weather is expected tomorrow as southerly low level winds continue to strengthen, with highs reaching near-record territory in the 70s to around 80.
223 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure will provide milder air for the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain should arrive by this weekend from an approaching cold front. Confidence is high for more clouds returning later tonight with a chance of rain or drizzle along the Blue Ridge. As an upper level low heads further offshore today, high pressure should wedge southwestward from the New England shoreline toward the Mid Atlantic. High-resolution models indicate some moisture and clouds moving westward toward the Blue Ridge later tonight, which will provide some patchy drizzle and a low chance of showers.
Overall, high pressure will continue to provide pleasant conditions for much of the southeast. (Today through Friday) A Rossby wave train continues to amplify across North America through the short term, which will intensify the deepening trough in the Western CONUS and continue to support the ridging pattern in the east. This pattern will result in a high pressure regime locally characterized by light winds, mostly clear skies, and relatively dry conditions with PWATs between 0.
(This evening through Friday) The WV imagery was showing a strong upper level trough over the western US with a ridge along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, southerly flow was transporting gulf moisture north across west central Texas with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast, continuing the stretch of warm and dry weather. Strong northwest flow aloft have dropped PWATs down well below an inch on the backside of the slow moving 500mb trough off the NC coast. Easterly flow begins to develop during the day Friday as the upper low pushes well offshore as upper ridging begins to build over the area with rising heights.
136 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast, continuing the stretch of warm and dry weather. Strong northwest flow aloft have dropped PWATs down well below an inch on the backside of the slow moving 500mb trough off the NC coast. As the upper low that moved across the region Mid-week continues to drop southward and well east of the Florida Coast, our area will see an upper ridge axis move into the cwa as we remain between systems. With the building ridge aloft, and an increasing onshore flow in the lower levels, afternoon temperatures will be rather mild, with highs again in the mid to upper 70s.
1131 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Current surface map places cold front across central South Dakota into northern Nebraska with best pressure rise bubble shifting east of the Black Hills. Jet streak lifting ahead of upper trof will interact with mid level baroclinic zone, brining some light snow.
112 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Water vapor shows splitting trof extending from the Northern Rockies through the Desert SW. At the surface, cold front has shifted well south/east of the forecast area with high building into eastern MT. A cold night expected areawide with widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s, and a few degrees warmer in south central SD.
/13 (Now through Friday) An upper level ridge will continue to amplify over the area through Friday. The ridge will shift toward the east coast on Friday in response to an upper trough moving across the Great Plains.
Initial thinking is that the transition of the upper trough will help push out the stratus that has developed over much of the eastern forecast area, but models have certainly been wrong about the persistence of stratus before! Any lingering low clouds will affect forecast temperatures.
A stout cold front was located from northwest Kansas to central Minnesota at 18Z with temps in the 40s just behind it. Convection should become widespread late tonight into midday Friday as the upper trough moves through and the cold front passes. Best precip intensities should come during this time frame as frontal forcing is replaced by mid/upper forcing via the upper trough as it begins to tilt negative in eastern Kansas.
Dry and warmer weather arrives over the weekend. An upper level low continues to dig southward over SOCAL early this morning, the low center is SW of Las Vegas. A cold front was noted near Kingman (AZ), with pre- frontal, upslope showers falling along the Mogollon Rim. This entire pattern will shift eastward today, as the upper low bottoms out and shears across Arizona. Expect about 12 additional hours of precipitation as a result, with two distinct periods of enhanced precipitation, These will be associated with the actual cold front due later this morning , and then the deeply saturated and unstable cold pool precipitation this afternoon. After tonight, the low begins to fill and move eastward, expect very cold temperatures Friday morning.
1243 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper trough over ID/NV/CA this morning swings east into UT/AZ today and CO/NM tonight. The trough will pass across the region Friday. The upper trough will push a Pacific front through the region tonight and Friday morning leaving a W wind in its wake. Temperatures Friday will be about 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. And while the low levels are moist the wind has kept fog from developing. With the upper trough approaching there will be a chance of thunderstorms tonight across the NE Permian Basin. Strong wind aloft associated with the upper trough will swing across the mountains Late tonight and Friday. Have added the Davis Mountains to the High Wind Watch already in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 1232 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Water vapor imagery currently shows a deep trough digging into the U. The trough should quickly progress through the Southwest today and begin ejecting into the region tonight into Friday.