Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Both systems will move north-northeast today into Manitoba with cooler and drier airmass moving into SE ND into MN. Closer to the upper low itself as it moveds toward Devils Lake during the day wraparound rain showers will occur over the Devils Lake basin and far northern RRV today. A 500 mb vort on the south side of the upper low will move into E ND/RRV late this aftn/early this evening and give a slight chance for light rain Valley City up to Grand Forks to Roseau. Cooler airmass lifts more into Canada behind the system so that Tuesday max Temps are more along seasonal lines vs below average.
Our attention will then turn to the increasing chances of showers and storms late tonight as moisture surges into the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
Baker (Today through Tuesday) Last main quiet day on tap as upper and sfc ridging should keep regime dry and pleasant with only some cirrus mainly across the area.
702 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Warm and dry weather continues today as high pressures persists to the east.
719 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Weak low pressure in our vicinity will bring occasional rain today, with some heavy downpours possible.
451 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure racing quickly north- northeast across eastern ND. Cold front is well south and east of the area now, with tight pressure gradient in place across the region producing gusty northwesterly winds in most areas. Upper level analysis has trough across the Rockies into the Plains, with broad circulation centered over far northeast WY. Temps range from around 30 over portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 40s over south central SD. However, as the low tracks into the Dakotas early this morning, moisture will wrap around the backside of the system into far northeast WY and parts of northwest SD into the northern Black Hills. As the low tracks into southeast Manitoba by midday, winds will start to gradually decrease during the afternoon.
638 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Today and tonight) A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently being observed from near Elk City northeastward into Woods County along a prefrontal trough. A break in rainfall is expected this afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern and southeastern OK.
701 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure.
At 245 AM, a strong upper level low was evident on satellite over the Dakotas. A second upper level low was moving across New Mexico, and precipitation was beginning to blossom ahead of this feature as it continues to interact with moisture from former Hurricane Roslyn. Rain Potential Today: The trough over the Dakotas this morning will drift into Canada today, leaving a trailing upper trough axis draped southward across the Dakotas and Nebraska. Meanwhile the southern trough will move out of New Mexico and into the Southern Plains. Southerly flow ahead of this second trough will advect moisture from former Hurricane Roslyn northward, resulting in a band of isentropically driven precipitation from Texas to the Great Lakes by the end of the day.
948 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure.
The next disturbance and weak cold front will bring precipitation to northwest Montana and north-central Idaho this morning, spreading eastward across the rest of the region this afternoon.
Temperatures hovering near the freezing mark and with high water content of snow, not expecting a lot of blowing and drifting, although with winds gusting to 40 mph could see a few higher drifts develop where the snow swirls.
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Today through Tuesday) South breezes and a strong ridge overhead will make for another warm day across Middle Tennessee. A compact but strong low pressure system will move from the OK/TX Panhandle to the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday. On Tuesday, winds will become stronger and quite gusty as the low pressure approaches.
On water vapor imagery, an elongated mid-level trough extended from a closed low over North Dakota southwestward through Arizona where an area of low pressure was strengthening. The aforementioned surface front will continue to work eastward across the area this morning as continued moisture transport occurs ahead of the digging Southwest trough axis. Long range models tend to agree on the development of a closed upper low over the southwestern CONUS late this week. The heavier rainfall with that system is likely to stay south of the area but light QPF does return to our forecast as an associated trough moves across KS. By the beginning of the 12Z TAF period, a cold front will be east of terminals and rain will be expanding over the area.
The recent cooler than normal weather and lower sun angle have decreased the Gulf and Bayside SSTs into the upper 70s. High pressure over the Southeast United States and northern Florida will support gentle to moderate breezes today through this evening. Breezes will diminish beginning Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure nestles across South Florida and the Keys.
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Warm and dry weather continues today as high pressures persists to the east.
Expect low temperatures to continue to be at or near freezing.
231 AM MST Mon Oct 24 2022 A cold front will exit early this morning ushering in much cooler temperatures for today and tonight. Sub freezing temperatures are possible for valleys south and east of Tucson early Tuesday morning, including Sulphur Springs Valley.
Precipitation intensity could pick up briefly this evening into tonight along the leading edge of an upper trough. Conditions deteriorating to MVFR conditions 18-20Z across a KBKE-KMYL line due to lowering clouds and showers ahead of an approaching cold front.
In the valleys, most precip will fall as rain, thought a bit of a mix overnight can't be ruled out completely as temperatures fall to near or just above freezing. This moisture is off to our east by sunrise on Tuesday for most, though it lingers in the higher elevations of the eastern highlands until closer to midday.
135 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Warm and dry weather continues today as high pressures persists to the east.
230 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows the upper level trough axis shifting just east of the CWA. Portions of the northern Nebraska Panhandle including Chadron have been observing light snow, which will continue through late this afternoon on the backside of the low. As this low continues to shift east, height gradients will continue to tighten leading to the next high wind event for the wind-prone locations of southeast Wyoming.
It was a cold morning for many areas across the high country today, with multiple locations reaching near or below freezing. Expect low temperatures to continue to be at or near freezing.
A deep area of low pressure (985 mb) centered across southwest Ontario will continue to track to the northeast tonight.
251 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 18Z surface data has the cold front roughly along a line from near KDEH to just west of KCDJ.
(Tonight) The ridge over much of the eastern US will slide to the east tonight. In its wake, a trough currently over TX will push towards the Southeast overnight.
Precipitation will taper off late this afternoon into early evening before next round of activity arrives associated with upper low. The upper low will move east with areas of rain and a few thunderstorms continuing into Tuesday morning.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level low spinning over New Mexico. A few lingering storms are also possible across the Big Country early tonight as the upper low tracks across the Red River Valley.
Weak short wave ridging moves through the area tonight which will allow winds to diminish a bit and temperatures will respond by dropping lower. Troughiness digs into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday and northwest flow in the low levels remains in place. On the nose of this troughiness a weak wave ejects across ND which will bring a bit of enhanced warming to the area Tuesday. As the trough deepens to the west a ridge of high pressure will move across the area and bring another chilly night on Tuesday night. Will continue to lean on the cooler side of guidance with a dry ground and the bias corrected data beginning to pick up on this trend.
110 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Today and tonight) A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently being observed from near Elk City northeastward into Woods County along a prefrontal trough. A break in rainfall is expected this afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern and southeastern OK.
1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure racing quickly north- northeast across eastern ND. Cold front is well south and east of the area now, with tight pressure gradient in place across the region producing gusty northwesterly winds in most areas. Upper level analysis has trough across the Rockies into the Plains, with broad circulation centered over far northeast WY. Temps range from around 30 over portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 40s over south central SD. However, as the low tracks into the Dakotas early this morning, moisture will wrap around the backside of the system into far northeast WY and parts of northwest SD into the northern Black Hills. As the low tracks into southeast Manitoba by midday, winds will start to gradually decrease during the afternoon.
Guidance is still split in how far north or south the low will track. The 12z HRW FV3 and NAM show strong moisture transport on the backside of the low pressure. Conditions should clear during the day Tuesday as the upper level trough shifts east of our area.
240 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 A nearly stacked low pressure system has reached the Manitoba/ Ontario border early this afternoon. A transitory ridge will cross the state overnight, allowing temperatures to plummet into the lower and mid 20s for a few hours. This will immediately be followed by another trough digging into the Northern Plains early Tuesday. This trough is much less potent, and may only bring a few isolated light rain or snow showers to areas along the international border, where the strongest cyclonic flow will be located. Forecast highs on Tuesday range from the mid and upper 30s north, where cloud cover will be more extensive and some snow could remain on the ground, to the lower and mid 50s southeast.
(Today through Tuesday) Last main quiet day on tap as upper and sfc ridging should keep regime dry and pleasant with only some cirrus mainly across the area.
Low pressure from the southern Plains moves northeastward toward the Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday.
Radiational cooling will allow low temperatures to drop into the 20s across the entire area, coldest in northeast Colorado where may see a few spots in the lower 20s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower 30s with increasing clouds.
202 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Key Messages: - Rain diminishing by Tuesday morning as cold front passes - Remaining dry and seasonable through the end of October Tonight into Tuesday night: Rain along a passing cold front tonight With an anomalously moist air mass across the region this evening into tonight (pushing the climatological max compared to MPX and DVN soundings) rain showers will lift northeasterly as the cold front shifts from west to east. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal behind the cold front, with highs near 50 and lows in the mid 30s by Tuesday night.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints near 70.
Minimal rain chances will linger across extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas this evening as a closed upper level low shifts eastward through the South Plains of west Texas into southern Oklahoma. More seasonal temperatures can be expected tonight as a cooler air mass filters into western Kansas, dropping H85 tempertures well below 10C across the area.
Minimal rain chances will linger across extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas this evening as a closed upper level low shifts eastward through the South Plains of west Texas into southern Oklahoma. More seasonal temperatures can be expected tonight as a cooler air mass filters into western Kansas, dropping H85 tempertures well below 10C across the area. A low pressure center to our south will continue to move away from the greater region. Another UL trof will begin to carve out across the northern Rockies. The net result is a quiet weather day with even warmer highs.
147 PM MST Mon Oct 24 2022 Sub freezing temperatures are possible for valleys south and east of Tucson tonight, including Sulphur Springs Valley.
301 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 The tightly-wound 984mb low over southern Manitoba with its trailing cold front nearly north- south over central MN will continue to shift off into southeastern Canada while the cold front sweeps eastward. Rain showers have broken out over southern-eastern MN into western WI this afternoon in the vicinity of and ahead of the cold front. That said, the cold front will have effectively done its job, bringing in a strong surge of colder air that will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
1224 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Today through Tuesday) South breezes and a strong ridge overhead will make for another warm day across Middle Tennessee. A compact but strong low pressure system will move from the OK/TX Panhandle to the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday. On Tuesday, winds will become stronger and quite gusty as the low pressure approaches.
A wound up, closed low pressure system located across southeast Manitoba this afternoon will continue shifting northeastward and away from our region tonight. A weak trof at the sfc and mid-levels will slide east-southeast across our forecast area this evening. High pressure will set up across the Central Plains on Tuesday with a weak low and associated warm front sliding southeast out of Canada into ND. This will help to pull in a slightly warmer air mass on Tuesday.
As the low departs to the northeast, winds are expected to decrease overnight into Tuesday.
145 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure.
However, with that being said, new snowpack over Yellowstone and cooler temperatures is inducing tight pressure gradient over the Beartooths that will bring about this seasons first (of many) gap wind set-ups for the Livingston area, who will see gusts 50 to 55 mph this evening and overnight, decreasing late Tuesday morning. Impacts should be minimal, as road surfaces should stay just above freezing east along the foothills. Breezy west to northwest winds are the variable that will impact the lower elevations, with gusts 25-40 mph across the area.
The upper trough has been pushing steadily east and will likely bring the current rain to and end by early this evening over the forecast area as the vort max aloft shifts north and weakens with the anafrontal lift waning as dry air works into the area with quality moisture shifting east of the area. Into tomorrow morning the upper low over the Texas panhandle region becomes cutoff from the mean flow. Another late week trough digs into the southern Plains but is likely far enough south that only low rain chances may develop.
The coast will be a bit cooler on Tuesday, especially Orange County, and the cold advection over the deserts/mtns will abate, allowing some warming there. The weather pattern this week will be dominated by a long wave trough over the U.
607 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Strong upper trough swinging across NM today moving into W TX this afternoon. Trough pushing a Pacific front through the area. Strong wind associated with this trough expected to mix down to the surface. Lows tonight will be about 20 degrees cooler with 30s across SE NM and higher elevations with 40s elsewhere.
Northerly wind gusts will return to the Colorado River Valley with slightly cooler temperatures areawide.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland, with most coastal areas in the mid 60s. Highs will trend slightly warmer, but still reaching the lower 80s at the coast and mid 80s inland.
A cold front will continue to move across the area this afternoon and tonight.
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 The tightly-wound 984mb low over southern Manitoba with its trailing cold front nearly north- south over central MN will continue to shift off into southeastern Canada while the cold front sweeps eastward. Rain showers have broken out over southern-eastern MN into western WI this afternoon in the vicinity of and ahead of the cold front. That said, the cold front will have effectively done its job, bringing in a strong surge of colder air that will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
540 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows the upper level trough axis shifting just east of the CWA. Portions of the northern Nebraska Panhandle including Chadron have been observing light snow, which will continue through late this afternoon on the backside of the low. As this low continues to shift east, height gradients will continue to tighten leading to the next high wind event for the wind-prone locations of southeast Wyoming.
A nearly stacked low pressure system has reached the Manitoba/ Ontario border early this afternoon. A transitory ridge will cross the state overnight, allowing temperatures to plummet into the lower and mid 20s for a few hours. This will immediately be followed by another trough digging into the Northern Plains early Tuesday. This trough is much less potent, and may only bring a few isolated light rain or snow showers to areas along the international border, where the strongest cyclonic flow will be located. Forecast highs on Tuesday range from the mid and upper 30s north, where cloud cover will be more extensive and some snow could remain on the ground, to the lower and mid 50s southeast.
(The rest of tonight) The main concern overnight involves the second round of showers and thunderstorms set to move through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later tonight as the upper low currently in the Texas Panhandle moves through the area. (Tuesday through Monday) A dynamic upper low will track across north Texas tonight and move northeast across southeastern Oklahoma through the day Tuesday. Additional shower development is also expected through the day Tuesday as the low moves to the northeast across the forecast area.
Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) A dynamic upper low will track across north Texas tonight and move northeast across southeastern Oklahoma through the day Tuesday. Additional shower development is also expected through the day Tuesday as the low moves to the northeast across the forecast area.
Minimal rain chances will linger across extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas this evening as a closed upper level low shifts eastward through the South Plains of west Texas into southern Oklahoma. More seasonal temperatures can be expected tonight as a cooler air mass filters into western Kansas, dropping H85 temperatures well below 10C across the area.
An expansive surface area of high pressure extending across the East Coast is currently maintaining northeast to east breezes ranging from 8 to 14 knots across the Reef. Temperatures will drop to the lower to mid 70s across the island chain. After a meager northeast wind surge overnight, breezes will diminish Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure nestles across South Florida and the Keys.
633 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Tonight) The ridge over much of the eastern US will slide to the east tonight. In its wake, a trough currently over TX will push towards the Southeast overnight.
625 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Key Messages: - Rain diminishing by Tuesday morning as cold front passes - Remaining dry and seasonable through the end of October Tonight into Tuesday night: Rain along a passing cold front tonight With an anomalously moist air mass across the region this evening into tonight (pushing the climatological max compared to MPX and DVN soundings) rain showers will lift northeasterly as the cold front shifts from west to east. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal behind the cold front, with highs near 50 and lows in the mid 30s by Tuesday night.
18Z surface data has the cold front roughly along a line from near KDEH to just west of KCDJ.
A dense swath of cirrus will pass through overnight downstream of the deep trough and attendant low pressure system mentioned in the Short Term discussion, which should hinder radiational cooling and lead to low temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night/this morning.
418 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Main focus remains on a rather high amplitude upper cutoff low that is progged to sling a translated sfc occluded/cold front across the area primarily this evening into the early morning hours. Aloft we mainly transition to zonal flow though will be a cooler day with many areas in the north only making it to the mid 60s.
1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 The tightly-wound 984mb low over southern Manitoba with its trailing cold front nearly north- south over central MN will continue to shift off into southeastern Canada while the cold front sweeps eastward. Rain showers have broken out over southern-eastern MN into western WI this afternoon in the vicinity of and ahead of the cold front. That said, the cold front will have effectively done its job, bringing in a strong surge of colder air that will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Breezy/gusty winds (albeit sub-advisory levels) will drop off this evening as the aforementioned low pressure center moves away, allowing the pressure gradient to slacken which will then allow winds to diminish significantly tonight and remain benign through Tuesday night.
These disturbances will help a few showers occur mainly in the mountains and adjacent foothills, but dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will prevent the shower activity from reaching areas farther eastward. Showers will be in the form of snow in the mountains and rain or rain/snow showers in the lower elevations, with snow levels around 4500-5000 feet.
Dry conditions continue today but despite increased cloud coverage, highs will again be in the low to mid 70s with increased warm advection. On Wednesday, a trough and associated front will lift north across the region and result in scattered precipitation during the day.
(Today through Wednesday) The cold front moved through this morning and we are seeing some gusty winds persisting, mainly over western counties at time of writing, but could still an increase in winds over the remainder of South Texas during the morning hours. As high pressure pushes in today, expect a pleasant day with high mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s. As the ridge shifts east of the region on Wednesday onshore flow will return.
Upper trough axis continues to move east across the CWA early this morning. Light rates and sfc temps above freezing will negate any impacts from this precip. Behind the departing trough, another weak and subtle wave moves into ND out of SK ahead of cooling temps aloft. At this time, we're not anticipating this activity to be impactful due to light rates, sparse coverage, and temps near or above freezing, should this activity even push into our area at all.
310 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Widespread light showers continue to move to the northeast across the forecast area early this morning along and just ahead of the cold front that extends from northwestern IL south southwestward just west of KFYG and just south of KSGF as of 07z.
Forecast seems to be on track with showers still lingering over the forecast area this evening as an upper level low traverses the area. A cold front will continue to move across the area this afternoon and tonight. This front should bring snow to the highest passes with around 6 inches of snow at Crater Lake National Park through Wednesday morning.