Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, cold front is draped across northwestern and west central Minnesota at this time. Cold front and low clouds knocking on Grand Forks door as we approach 12z. So idea of clouds, cooler, light rain showers today seem good. Temperatures overnight expected to drop into the low to mid 30s area wide, despite cloud cover. A deep and broad upper level trof extends across the western two thirds of the country.
With the upper disturbance moving through New England today, heights will rise a bit more as ridging builds in from the west. High temperatures this afternoon likely a degree or two warmer under mostly sunny to occasionally partly cloudy skies, peaking in the mid to upper 90s. Heading into tonight, the ridge axis shifts offshore and southerly flow advects deeper moisture across the region with dewpoints surging back into the upper 60s. Deep ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore Saturday. The high in the Atlantic will deepen and moisture flux will increase over the area. Temperatures cooler than Friday, around 90.
Key messages: - Potent cold front this morning carries gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures into this area this afternoon.
623 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A much cooler day ahead as a cold front raced through the region last night. Plenty of mid and high level clouds along with a west to northwest wind gusting to around 35 mph will bring a much cooler feel to the area compared to the very hot day yesterday. The low level thermal field only supports highs from roughly the mid 50s to mid 60s with a secondary shot of cool air wrapping in later this afternoon as the upper level jet drops southward a bit. Upper level troughiness gradually moves across the area through the weekend which will keep the below normal temperatures in place. That secondary shot of cooler air will bring temperatures down even more with most locations not climbing above the mid 50s on Saturday.
With above freezing temperatures, this precipitation is mostly falling as rain, although cannot rule out a snowflake or two mixed in as colder air works its way in from the north. Otherwise, cold front is draped across northwestern and west central Minnesota at this time. Cold front and low clouds knocking on Grand Forks door as we approach 12z. So idea of clouds, cooler, light rain showers today seem good. Temperatures overnight expected to drop into the low to mid 30s area wide, despite cloud cover. A deep and broad upper level trof extends across the western two thirds of the country.
No rain expected today with PWATs around 1 inch and strong subsidence beneath an upper ridge. Tonight: The upper ridge axis will shift northeast of the region overnight and southwesterly flow will result in moisture advection as PWATs rise to around 1. Ridge axis slowly shifts offshore with a more pronounced disturbance over Florida that will shift to the north into the area leading to increasing forcing across the area. Temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow with increase in clouds and precip chances but still in the upper 80s to near 90.
A cold front will cross the forecast area today giving some showers and gusty winds and maybe a rumble of thunder to portions of NW WI. Could see some dry afternoons too, but winds will be kept in check by weak pressure gradients under high pressure.
Currently, a broad positively tilted upper trough is situated from the central Rockies through the northern Plains into the Hudson Bay region. A meaningful cold front has shifted to the southeast of the area with limited convergence with southwest winds ahead of the front.
1253 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A much cooler day ahead as a cold front raced through the region last night. Plenty of mid and high level clouds along with a west to northwest wind gusting to around 35 mph will bring a much cooler feel to the area compared to the very hot day yesterday. The low level thermal field only supports highs from roughly the mid 50s to mid 60s with a secondary shot of cool air wrapping in later this afternoon as the upper level jet drops southward a bit. Upper level troughiness gradually moves across the area through the weekend which will keep the below normal temperatures in place. That secondary shot of cooler air will bring temperatures down even more with most locations not climbing above the mid 50s on Saturday.
220 PM MDT Fri May 20 2022 20z surface analysis had trough from central MN into southeast WY with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it on the SD plains. Popcorn showers over much of the CWA under upper trough axis from southern MB into UT. Tonight, upper trough axis shifts slowly southeast, but mean upper trough remains across central Canada into the Rockies. Should see another round of showers with some snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where minor accumulations will occur.
Temperatures will climb to the low 90s by the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will wind down from west to east Saturday afternoon as high pressure settles in.
349 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A broad, positively tilted trough is sitting off to the west this afternoon. As the trough pushes eastward this evening and into Saturday the main PV anomaly will move across Nebraska. Highs will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than the 75 degree normals for mid-late May. so have gone on the warmer side of guidance.
1220 PM PDT Fri May 20 2022 High temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler than yesterday afternoon, or by around 10 to 15 degrees.
The cold front continues to move through Eastern MN and through WI late this morning. Not too much has changed since yesterday with the anticipated evolution of the slow moving cold front and associated convection. Low pressure in western Wisconsin will move northeast across Lake Superior today and a trailing cold front will move slowly east, such that by 21Z or so the front will be near the shoreline north of Muskegon. We're going to see a couple of low pressure waves move northeast along the front through Saturday night and each one will enhance chances for showers and storms.
259 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Broad southwesterly flow will continue across West Texas tonight and Saturday as the disturbance which sent a very welcomed cold front moves into the Great Lakes region. We still expect some RFTI values of 3-4 in the cooler airmass. A secondary surge of cooler air is expected to move in around daybreak on Saturday bringing with it some breezy conditions during the morning. However, we look to continue to play sloshing cold front through the day on Saturday before it finally surges through Saturday night.
A light-moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain located between a mid-level subtropical ridge centered north of the Greater Antilles and an amplified longwave trough extending from central Canada into the southwestern CONUS. Thus, we expect the stratus layer to continue to lift/scatter as noted in regional surface observations and satellite imagery, with highs ranging from the m-u 80s in elevated terrain to the lower 90s in valley locations.
236 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 A weak cold front will settle into northern Indiana tonight and into the overnight hours with a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area beginning in the western portions of the forecast area and moving slowly eastward.
Cold front now extends north to south thru the length of Lake Michigan this afternoon attached to low pressure centered over and just north of Lake Superior. Cold front and main convective line will continue to march eastward thru the rest of our CWA thru early evening. Cooler temps will begin to drop into our region as CAA commences. Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 50s near Saginaw Bay. Cooler with Additional Rain Chances then Frost Likely.
Current forecast still looks on target with temperatures warming into the upper 80s with a few spots going into the lower 90s. With high pressure off the East Coast pumping warm, humid air northward ahead of a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, today will definitely feel like summer even though it's only May. The weekend starts off with a progressive upper-level pattern over the CONUS featuring a deep trough over the Intermountain West and an expansive upper level ridge along the US East Coast.
This morning lows were unusually cold for this time of year, with widespread frost and even below freezing temperatures west of the Cascades. Although tonight will see warmer overnight lows, a possibility of frost is possible. The low stratus could also develop in the Umpqua Basin, near Roseburg.
1215 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Today and tonight) All eyes are looking northward toward the approaching cold front over the central Plains that should bring some relief to the scorching pattern across west central Texas this weekend.
The limiting factor is the relative drier air located in the lower levels as noted in this morning's RAOB. Otherwise, ridge is building in from the east and this is leading to gradually freshening southeast breezes. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic from tonight through the weekend, bringing freshening east to southeast breezes to the Keys coastal waters.
(This evening through Saturday) Focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be the cold front currently bisecting the area from near Prague to Norman to Wichita Falls area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible behind the cold front later this evening and tonight across central and northeast parts of the area, posing a risk for hail, but this development is a bit more uncertain and likely tied to what happens with the first round of storms this afternoon and early evening. Cold front will resume its southward progression late tonight with low stratus expected to develop behind it by tomorrow morning which may linger into at least early afternoon for central/northern parts of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front tomorrow, with highs only in the 60s across much of the area.
Area is warming quickly and is roughly 1-2 degrees warmer than 24hrs ago. High pressure at the surface will hang on across the forecast area from the east today and tonight. Highs this afternoon will again top out in the low and middle 90s, with lows tonight only falling to around 70.
Upper trof/disturbance situated across the Big Bend area into Mexico tracking ewd. Cold front and associated shra/tsra chances Saturday night are beyond the scope of the 18z package.
136 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 Warm and humid weather will continue into Saturday in the breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
1103 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A light-moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain located between a mid-level subtropical ridge centered north of the Greater Antilles and an amplified longwave trough extending from central Canada into the southwestern CONUS. Thus, we expect the stratus layer to continue to lift/scatter as noted in regional surface observations and satellite imagery, with highs ranging from the m-u 80s in elevated terrain to the lower 90s in valley locations.
If you are a fan of temperatures more common for late October and early November, than you have come to the right short term weather forecast discussion! With the main cold front moving through the Panhandles this morning, a much cooler airmass funneling south from the northern Plains has made its presence in the region.
Diurnal heating may result in isolated to scattered light showers by the afternoon with best chance over and near the higher terrain. Look for highs a little warmer than today in the lower to mid 50s.
By early afternoon, surface cold front expected to be near the southeastern most CWA, effectively ending greatest strong thunderstorm potential.
The approaching upper trough and northerly winds bring a notably colder night tonight. Expect temperatures to bottom out from the mid 30s along the Hwy 14 corridor to the lower 40s in northwest Iowa. Expect mainly dry but cool and cloudy weather for much of eastern and central SD Saturday as the upper trough slides in. NAM soundings support deeper saturation with the mid level trough and Fgen, but most other guidance has enough mid or lower level dry air to inhibiting rain early on.
No rain expected today with PWATs around 1 inch and strong subsidence beneath an upper ridge. Tonight: The upper ridge axis will shift northeast of the region overnight and southwesterly flow will result in moisture advection as PWATs rise to around 1. Deep ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore Saturday. The high in the Atlantic will deepen and moisture flux will increase over the area. Temperatures cooler than Friday, around 90.
Expect high temperatures to be a touch warmer than yesterday in the upper 90s, with possible record highs. Heading into tonight, the ridge axis shifts offshore and southerly flow advects deeper moisture across the region with dewpoints surging back into the upper 60s. Deep ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore Saturday. The high in the Atlantic will deepen and moisture flux will increase over the area. Temperatures cooler than Friday, around 90.
319 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 A weak cold front will settle into northern Indiana tonight and into the overnight hours with a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area beginning in the western portions of the forecast area and moving slowly eastward.
The first being that the mid level trough shifted northward, taking with it the best lifting mechanisms. Second, the lower levels saw an increase in relatively dry air. Meanwhile, ridging that is centered out across the western Atlantic, will continue to building westward across the Florida Keys.
335 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Issued 335 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: The cold front over far se WI will move out over Lake MI and ne IL by 21-22Z.
BT A surface cold front was pushing through the forecast area at the moment with strong surface pressure rises over northern Montana. This will set the stage for a chilly night tonight with many locations dropping to and below freezing. It will continue to be cool on Saturday but be just a little warmer, with highs nosing into the lower to mid 50s.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that stretched from central Upper MI southwest through southeast WI. A weak ridge of high pressure as situated over the western Great Lakes, followed by a secondary cold front that extended from northeast MN to northern SD. Regional radar mosaic indicated showers and storms in the vicinity of the first cold front and only showers with the second cold front. The first system is a surface wave riding northeast along the old cold front that could bring precipitation mainly to east-central WI. Max temperatures will be on the cool side with readings to range from the lower to middle 50s north-central WI, to the upper 50s over eastern WI (away from the lake).
309 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 The main area of showers is highlighting the weak surface cold front sinking southeast across the area through the rest of the afternoon hours. Enhanced by the 500mb trough and daytime heating, scattered to broken cumulus clouds have been able to develop.
1253 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (Today and tonight) A decent late season cold front will bring much needed relief from an early dose of summer-like heat. The cold front, which is moving faster than most models are forecasting, will push through northwest Oklahoma by sunrise, and will continue to push southward through the day. This area will be more prone to active fire behavior before cooler and somewhat more humid conditions arrive for the weekend.
Additional snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (locally as high as 4 inches) can be expected on grassy/elevated surfaces across the higher terrain of Central Montana, Continental Divide, and mountains of Southwest Montana, with primary impacts being to those recreating in the backcountry.
311 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 Warm and humid weather will continue into Saturday in the breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
245 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 As of 2 PM, the cold front is from near Dixon Illinois, to near Macomb Illinois. CAA is already dropping temperatures to the lower 60s over the northwest this afternoon, and that advection will continue tonight, with gradually lowering dewpoints, despite the occasional light rainfall. Illinois, with slighly higher dewpoints, with see temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. Not much changes at the low levels Saturday, with clouds, precip, and cold advection in the 50s and 60s. ERVIN Key messages: 1) Cooler than average temperatures through much of the period.
The trough responsible for this gloomy and windy weather will continue to persist over the West today and Saturday.
A very broad upper level trough and slowing moving surface cold front will begin to approach the area from the west early Saturday.
An upper trough from eastern Canada southwestward to the nation's mid-section continues through Sat with broad cyclonic flow over the southeast U. At the surface a high pressure ridge axis through central FL lifts into the northern portion of the state Sat. Sun through Fri: The Canadian trough swings east and dampens out by midweek while ridging builds in over the state and much of the Gulf of Mexico. Then an upper low forms over the central plains and tracks to the Great Lakes by Fri with a trough moving into the southeast U. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches west. accompanying the upper trough. Ridge axis slowly lifting north is tightening the pressure gradient with exercise caution winds. The ridge axis reaches Latitude 30 North by Sun and continues into midweek with southeasterly flow and afternoon sea breezes.
Winds will gradually diminish throughout the day with temperatures significantly cooler through Saturday.
High pressure well to the east of the local area producing a well established southerly flow which will be breezy (wind gusting to 20 to 25 kts at times) thru the remainder of the afternoon. Weak south to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the near term period as our region remains located between a building upper- level ridge over the Western Atlantic and troughing over the northern Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the Western Atlantic remains in control, allowing for southerly winds to be maintained throughout the period.
The cold front that moved through the area overnight will continue to push southward leading to northerly winds felt across western Kansas.
The high valleys of north central Idaho along with the valleys across western Montana will experience minimum temperatures near freezing.
1254 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Key Messages: - Lingering showers and storms today - Cooler this weekend Today: Lingering showers and storms will continue this morning along and behind the cold front currently passing over Southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. The cold front will clear the area around 12Z with precip chances really winding down by mid afternoon as the moisture gradient slides off to the southeast. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front keep today's highs in the mid 60s with northwest winds increasing in the afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 69 84 66 / 10 10 10 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 68 83 65 / 0 30 20 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 67 82 63 / 0 20 20 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 89 64 82 63 / 0 50 20 80 70.
However, a cold front will be dropping south toward the region Saturday evening.
The trough responsible for this gloomy and windy weather will continue to persist over the West through Saturday.
A passing "inside slider" brought a cooler airmass to the region.
1244 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front has passed western Osage / Pawnee counties and will be near the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK by early evening.
Dry conditions then expected through the overnight with lows in the lower 70s.
This morning lows were unusually cold for this time of year, with widespread frost and even below freezing temperatures west of the Cascades. Although tonight will see warmer overnight lows, a possibility of frost is possible.
An broad upper trough will remain overhead today through the weekend. Highs today will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still around 10 degrees below normal.
(The rest of today ) Cold front has passed western Osage / Pawnee counties and will be near the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK by early evening.
358 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 The latest upper level map features amplified flow, with a deep closed low centered across Hudson Bay, and troughing aligned southwest all the way to the West Coast. A subtropical ridge is positioned around Cuba, with rising heights spreading northwest into the southeastern CONUS and through the southern/central Appalachians. At the surface, broad low pressure is located across southeastern Ontario, with secondary low pressure near northern Michigan. A cold front is aligned southwest through the middle Mississippi Valley and into the southern Plains, with another cold front aligned from the Upper Midwest through the northern Plains. The subtropical ridge will expand northward across the western Atlantic, while the trough across the northwest half of the CONUS becomes more confined northward.
316 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A cold front will push slowly eastward into central Illinois tonight. 20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri. The airmass ahead of the slow-moving cold front will become moderately unstable, but will remain weakly sheared. The cold front will gradually shift eastward into Indiana Saturday night, resulting in an end to the rain chances.
The area is sitting under a longwave trough, and cold air aloft is allowing for numerous convective showers to strafe the region. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for most of the region by sunrise, including lower elevations east of the Divide. Those with sensitive outdoor vegetation will want to take steps to mitigate plants freezing.
The main area of showers is highlighting the weak surface cold front sinking southeast across the area through the rest of the afternoon hours. Enhanced by the 500mb trough and daytime heating, scattered to broken cumulus clouds have been able to develop.
Diurnal heating may result in isolated to scattered light showers in the afternoon with best chance over and near the higher terrain. Look for highs a little warmer than today in the lower to mid 50s.
Instability Saturday should be at least as strong as it was today, with cold air continuing aloft while lower levels become slightly warmer. A short wave trough will also provide lift, so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop again Saturday afternoon and become at least as active as today.
As of 2 PM, the cold front is from near Dixon Illinois, to near Macomb Illinois. CAA is already dropping temperatures to the lower 60s over the northwest this afternoon, and that advection will continue tonight, with gradually lowering dewpoints, despite the occasional light rainfall. Illinois, with slighly higher dewpoints, with see temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. Not much changes at the low levels Saturday, with clouds, precip, and cold advection in the 50s and 60s. ERVIN Key messages: 1) Cooler than average temperatures through much of the period.
The upper ridge axis will shift northeast of the region and southwesterly flow will result in moisture advection into the region as PWATs rise to around 1. Ridge axis slowly shifts offshore with a more pronounced disturbance over Florida that will shift to the north into the area leading to increasing forcing across the area. Temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow with increase in clouds and precip chances but still in the upper 80s to near 90.