Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong low-level jet will develop overnight as a trough deepens across the western states. A cold front will track into the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Overnight though, as cold air advances further south and erodes the warmer air aloft, more widespread convection is anticipated. The cold front responsible for this activity will stall to our south and lead to several other chances for heavy rain and storms through the remainder of the week.
317 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Challenge and impacts in the short term revolve around cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening which escorts the well above normal temperatures from the area for the foreseeable future and then the snow potential tomorrow afternoon and evening as a short wave and associated defzone with potential mesoscale banding develops. This evening into the overnight will see the continued push of cold air advection with cold front rapidly moving across the area.
Cold front just about to move into the southern Panhandle this afternoon. 700mb low closes off over Sweetwater County into northwestern Colorado at this time with widespread snow developing to the north and east of this low.
948 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. High pressure continues and forecast remains on track this evening. Quiet weather will continue as high pressure meanders offshore through the end of the week. Current forecast keeps overnight lows in the low 40s or upper 30s. Pristine spring weather continues on Wednesday with the high pressure holding near the area. Sunny with highs in the lower 70s should make for an excellent day with warming trend to continue through the remainder of the week.
A large scale positively tilted trough aloft was over the western and north central CONUS. Ridge/valley differences can be expected with the dry air mass and warm air advection, but exactly which valleys can decouple and where temperatures settle is the question.
700 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 Mid level ridging above the Gulf of Mexico this evening nudges in over most of FL during the next 24 hours or so. Meanwhile high pressure off the eastern seaboard reaches west across the southeast US and the eastern half of the Gulf. The high pressure maintains northeasterly to easterly winds. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the eastern Gulf waters reaching exercise speeds.
555 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. Quiet weather will continue as high pressure meanders offshore through the end of the week. Current forecast keeps overnight lows in the low 40s or upper 30s. Pristine spring weather continues on Wednesday with the high pressure holding near the area. Sunny with highs in the lower 70s should make for an excellent day with warming trend to continue through the remainder of the week.
307 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 Dry and warm weather continues today thanks to weak ridging overhead. The higher dewpoints would be a relief to the marginal fire danger we've been highlighting if it weren't for the increased southerly winds, but because of that we'll likely continue to see marginal fire weather conditions for at least the eastern half of the area tomorrow afternoon.
921 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure across the Middle Atlantic this evening will move offshore tonight and into Wednesday. This high will remain in place through late-week.
Have tweaked the hourly temperature grids to account for this trend, but the lows still look to be on track. A large scale positively tilted trough aloft was over the western and north central CONUS. Ridge/valley differences can be expected with the dry air mass and warm air advection, but exactly which valleys can decouple and where temperatures settle is the question.
837 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 Forecast remains on track this evening as high pressure centered just north of the area will allow for subsidence aloft to persist with easterly flow adding a slight increase in moisture levels along the coast and patchy fog is expected where calm winds and saturation coincides mainly focused in areas along Highway 301 from Cecil Air Field north to Jesup and Brunswick in SE GA. High pressure will nudge slowly north and east into tomorrow with easterly winds 10-15 mph and warmer conditions bringing temperatures to near seasonal levels in the 70s inland to around 70 at the beaches.
403 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough near the west coast and a downstream ridge through the central CONUS. At the surface, southerly winds were increasing through the Mississippi Valley between a ridge over the central Great Lakes and low pressure over the western Dakotas. Mid/high clouds were expanding from MN WI into Upper Michigan as WAA increases ahead of the low. Expect max readings toward the higher end of guidance into the mid and upper 50s south and west to around 50 over the rest of the area.
713 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A very weak but dry cold front will drift just south of the Pennsylvania, Maryland border this evening, then return north across the state as a warm front on Wednesday.
547 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A very weak but dry cold front will drift just south of the Pennsylvania, Maryland border this evening, then return north across the state as a warm front on Wednesday.
FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THEN ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
SURFACE WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THIS WAS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. 850 TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS IF NOT A TAD HIGHER. WINDS FROM THE WNW TO NW TODAY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
136 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
405 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSON TN TO TUNICA MS. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OUT WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in the deformation zone. For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low itself or under the upper level dry slot.
Band of light to moderate warm air advection precipitation is moving northeast across north central Montana, bringing light measurable snow (half inch or less) with patchy light freezing drizzle.
153 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH OUR NRN ZONES AND THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS NEWD.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS STALLING OUT DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE PROGS THE HIGHEST POPS ON THE NORTH TO WEST FLANK OF THE LOW. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY HALF INCH TOTALS NEAR THE STATE LINE AND ALSO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TURN EAST INTO OKLA AND NORTH TX BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A CLOSED LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
High pressure centered across the Northern Plains now will become centered near the IN/OH/KY border by daybreak Wednesday. However, we still should see readings fall into the upper 20s for our northeastern counties, with readings around freezing for most of the area. As warm air pushes in behind high and into this cooler airmass, we can expect a period of isentropic lift to increase cloud cover through the day.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA LYING UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TAP TODAY WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BAJA SYSTEM. POPS FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS AND EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ALONG WITH THE LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL BE DRIFTING OUR WAY FOR TOMORROW.
326 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. FAST MOVING TORUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MAIN HAS A COLD FRONT INTO GEORGIA. YESTERDAYS BAJA CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT OUT AND IS APPROACHING THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LUNCH TIME TOMORROW.
204 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
107 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL BE DRIFTING OUR WAY FOR TOMORROW.
1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING HAS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER NEARING SW MN/NW IA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND TEMPERATURE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL WI. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS.
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHRA OVER LRD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO MARK COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA.
The predominant flow switches to the northwest tonight, bringing cooler air aloft to the Northern Rockies. Local road surface models show that road temperatures could approach freezing early Wednesday at those locations, allowing for possible accumulations.
THE WELL TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ALLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 647 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS THEN WEST INTO PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR WEST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN.
356 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA THIS AFTERNOON. THE IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LOW IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ITS WAY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND APPEARS IT WILL TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED (OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN).
115 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
341 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDY AND COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND BACK TO THE W/SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S.
1235 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS EVENING. A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER SHORT WAVE OF SIMILAR TRACK WILL CROSS WRN RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY TOWARD MON. 17/18Z HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AREA FROM NORTHWEST.
66-70 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR OVER WATER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAS LED TO FOG REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW MOVES FAVORABLY INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA. WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
1243 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 Significantly cooler temperatures are anticipated in the wake of a strong cold front which swept through the region early this morning; however, highs are still expected to reach or even slightly exceed their seasonal normals in the mid to possibly upper 50s. Cooler air filtering in under the upper trough and cloud cover/evaporative cooling associated with any rain showers will make Wednesday the coolest day in the forecast period, with highs remaining in the lower to mid 50s.
BUT CS COULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE S AS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER WRN MEX LIFTS INTO TX. IT HAS BEEN AN AMAZING STRETCH OF WARM WX SINCE THE 6TH WITH TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 60S ALL BUT ONE DAY. DESPITE A BUCKLE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING AND DEVELOPING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN BY THE WEEKEND.
303 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 Strong moisture transport was occurring across the southern Plains this afternoon in advance of a large upper level low pressure system.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
303 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MODELS INDICATE 925MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND SOME HIGHER RH AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FROPA PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW MOVES FAVORABLY INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA. WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
1229 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ A DECENT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOCUSING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. KTW AS OF 17Z THERE WAS A COLD FRONT LOCATED AT THE KY/TN STATE LINE.
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
230 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO INDUCE A WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTY BORDER.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS (WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO INDUCE A WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTY BORDER.
ANY STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE NARROW. A DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN BLASTING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WED AS A WEAKENING DEEP SOUTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME LIFT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR HERE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS TEMPS WILL BE ABV FREEZING EARLY. AS TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AS SOME SUN AND N-NE WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ALLOW SOME MIXING. EXPECTING RIDGING ALOFT TO START BUILD IN AND ALLOW SF RIDGE TO BUILD SWD.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST STOPPED SHORT OF THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS SO REDUCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THAT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. COVERAGE INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
326 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 THE WEATHER MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS FORCE A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS WARM FRONT IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING A RATHER WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS. JUST ENOUGH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
This low level moisture is combining with warm surface temps to produce CAPE values as high as 3 kj/kg, more than enough instability to support severe thunderstorms.
318 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015 A quasi stationary front remains over northern Illinois, while a warm frontal boundary over the central Plains slowly pushes northeastward. The warm, moist air associated with the low level southerly flow will push into south central and southeast Illinois, increasing in the early morning as the warm front over the central Plains moves into southern Illinois.
/ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/ WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A DECENT GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE SRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS PAST EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND A FEW 50S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND 70S TO THE SOUTH. A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE IA/MN/WI BORDERS.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON PRODUCING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BETWEEN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN THE NORTH AND THE WARMER AND WETTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPES HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE DRIFTED JUST ABOVE OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A WARM FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL DRIVE TMAX UP AROUND 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A MORE OPEN UPPER LOW/TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MIDWEEK.
244 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT WITH THE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHWEST PA AT MID AFTERNOON AS A TONGUE OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
326 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS ON RADAR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 70 AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. IT WILL NOT QUITE FEEL LIKE DOG BREATH AS THE BREEZE OFF THE GULF WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT COOL DUE TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THUR.
146 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.