Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
414 AM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Upper level low over Idaho with lobe of energy extending southward into Utah which is progged to eject northeastward today. Thursday is cooler and windy with shower activity but intensity of any activity will be greatly reduced.
851 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will continue to bring very quiet weather with plenty of sunshine through Thursday.
Possible Severe Thunderstorms and Cooler. Also, temperatures will be cooler today, as compared to the record-setting heat of yesterday afternoon.
1018 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure has moved into the area making for a very pleasant morning. Temperatures are already warming quickly into the low 80's and will continue to rise into the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon. Atlantic high pressure ridging south of the coastal waters will setup generally west and southwest winds of less than 15 knots.
Satellite and radar imagery this morning shows center of upper level low is now over our southeast counties. Center of upper low is forecast by model guidance to wobble into east Tennessee today before shifting back northwestward into the Midwest on Thursday. However, coverage is anticipated to diminish each day as upper low slowly weakens and moves away from us. Temperatures will also remain below average due to the cold temperatures aloft associated with the low and clouds/precip.
732 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 VFR conditions prevail today as dry air continues to advect into the lower levels. Broad ridging expands over eastern North America today while the early week cutoff low meanders over the Tennessee Valley and a deep trough digs through the intermountain west. Deep-layer anticyclonic flow and dry air will dominate the conditions for SE Michigan for the most part with mostly sunny skies expected, though some moisture and influence from the upper low to the south will result in periods of mid and high clouds over the southern forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over New England will expand westward into our region.
317 AM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Water vapor shows broad/deep trof over the intermountain west, with ridge axis extending through the ern Dakotas. Upper trof to our west will continue to nudge slowly eastward today with upper low evolving northward into the northern Rockies. Staunch cap will gradually erode by late afternoon within a narrow area from northeast WY into very far western SD, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500J/kg will be place, as potent trof rotate northeastward into the forecast area. Severe threat will gradually dissipate in the evening as large scale ascent lifts further north and storms struggle to move further east onto the SD plains due to eastern CONUS blocking.
Will continue to keep the highs in the 70s we had going for now but will monitor satellite trends in case we stay socked in all day and need to be lowered. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge was over the forecast area. Warmer mid level cap remains across the Dakotas today but will diminish tonight. Storms currently in the High Plains were under the 700 theta-e ridge. Theta-e ridge forecast to shift east into central and eastern ND on Thu. MuCapes forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg but are confined to the western edge of the theta-e ridge.
641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 /12Z TAFS/ The frontal boundary has sagged south of the I-20 corridor early this morning, and will become quasi-stationary before beginning to lift back north as a warm front this afternoon. Possible Severe Thunderstorms and Cooler. Also, temperatures will be cooler today, as compared to the record-setting heat of yesterday afternoon.
Very low dewpoints are beginning to mix eastward across the higher terrain w/the 50F isodrosotherm expected to reach a Lamesa to Big Spring to Big Lake to Dryden line by 21Z.
1128 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will settle in across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
210 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 210 PM CDT A large upper level blocking ridge remains in place across much of central and eastern North America. This has essentially trapped our upper level low over the TN Valley. The upper low will gradually work its way back to the north over KY and far southern IN into Thursday.
1132 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Low pressure will maintain the chance of rain south of I 70 through tonight.
An upper level low will keep cooler than normal temperatures and chances for rain around into the end of the week. The pesky upper level low who has overstayed its welcome will continue to hang around through at least Thursday. Late tonight, some forcing approaches the area from the east as the upper low drifts closer again, so went with some slight chance PoPs far east late tonight. The upper low will continue to drift closer during Thursday, so some weak upper energy will rotate west into the area. An upper low continues to sit over Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the start of the short term.
251 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 A closed upper low will meander over Tennessee and Kentucky the next two days, as high pressure remains entrenched over the northeast CONUS.
208 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Weak ridging extends northward between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic coastline. To the north, a large upper low continues to spin over Tennessee with associated troughing extending south through the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even farther north, a closed upper high is located over the western Great Lakes region.
At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain in control of Northeast Wisconsin weather through the short-term portion of the forecast. Cooler temperatures are possible along the shoreline. 500mb ridge is expected to build across the southeastern United States this weekend.
Model guidance showing a modest southwesterly low-level jet for Thursday, along with a compact vort max entering the mean ridge position.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Latest HiRes models are in agreement that convection across west- central Louisiana will have dissipated by the start of the tonight period as mid to upper-level ridge begins to build across the region from northeast Texas.
A deep upper low centered over eastern Tennessee will slowly drift northward through Thursday with a broad trough axis extending southward across the area. Highs on Thursday are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s inland and around 80 to the lower 80s near the immediate coast.
132 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Aviation - Dry weather through the end of the work week - Temperatures trending warmer - Next best chance of rain Memorial Day - Dry weather through the end of the work week The large upper level low that brought the record rainfall to the region will continue to move southward. High pressure will build over the region and dry air will dominate through the end of the week. The only caveat will be that the deep low pressure system will work its way to the northeast. - Temperatures trending warmer Along with the drier, fairer weather, will come with it an upward trend of temperatures.
339 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Under persistent ridging, Upper Michigan has remained (mostly) cloud free and dry this afternoon. Going forecast was the 25th percentile, but under recent guidance this was cooler than the 10th percentile. Clear skies will last right into tomorrow under the ridge of high pressure.
327 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 A pair of strong, closed lows continue to pinch off an upper- level ridge over the central CONUS today. This ridge is currently building over the top of the east TN upper low, forming a bit of a Rex Block across the region. This will keep this pesky trough in place through tomorrow, resulting in little change in the weather across the Mid-South.
An upper level low will keep cooler than normal temperatures and chances for rain around into the end of the week. The pesky upper level low who has overstayed its welcome will continue to hang around through at least Thursday. Late tonight, some forcing approaches the area from the east as the upper low drifts closer again, so went with some slight chance PoPs far east late tonight. The upper low will continue to drift closer during Thursday, so some weak upper energy will rotate west into the area. This cloudy pattern will continue through tonight and tomorrow as the low pressure system slowly begins to meander back into the Ohio Valley.
Stacked low pressure is centered over the TN Valley this morning, and deep/moist easterly flow continues over KY on the north side of the cyclone. Highs will likely stay in the low 60s in the Bluegrass Region today, with mid and upper 60s common further west. Tonight, the closed low moves northwest toward the KY/TN border, and the LLJ does intensify once again over Huntington, WV. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s. With loss of heating Thursday evening, expect any ongoing scattered showers to wane, even as the slow-moving upper low makes its slow wobble northeast along the Ohio River.
Short wave energy is expected to continue ejecting north/northeast out of the intermountain trof through Thursday night. For Thursday another wave lifts north/ne out across the High Plains and helps push the sfc boundary a little further east.
The upper ridge will slowly break down across the Great Lakes with a long wave trough, and several weak short waves, moving northeast across the plains starting Thursday.
The rex should keep the low locked over the lower Tennesee Valley for at least the next 24 hours. Carney By Thursday evening the low should start filling in and drifting north as the blocking high weakens and shifts eastward.
This pattern pinches off the ridge over the local area and brings low clouds back at us from the southeast already tonight. The RAP shows the low clouds thinning, however h85 moisture increases through the morning with clouds re-developing. With the increase in clouds for Thursday, did go cooler with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
1245 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 The center of an upper level low will track slowly north-northeast across ID today and be moving into western MT by early this evening. The system has become somewhat negatively tilted and the base of the upper trough will pivot into WY this evening. At the surface a leeward trough will deepen across far eastern WY southward along the Front Range in CO. Southeast low-level upslope flow will increase through the day and advect upper 50s surface dew points into western SD southward through eastern CO to the east of the leeward trough. As large scale ascent arrives and overspreads the trough thunderstorms will develop. A vort max will rotate northeast around the northern Rockies upper low.
These low-level clouds will likely clear out this evening with the loss of daytime heating, but low stratus is expected to build back in over the state as a warm front approaches tomorrow morning.
253 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Large high pressure will settle across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
High temperatures tomorrow will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior sections.
Showers are possible under the higher cloud cover with a few thunderstorms possible across the south and southwest portions of the area as weather disturbances move in from the southwest.
With that said, confidence is low for these storms to hit any particular area along the Rio Grande, however, the impacted areas could be dealing with large hail and damaging wind gusts as mentioned earlier under this high cape environment but low shear. Highs will be cooler by at least 5 degrees across the area due cloud coverage.
At this time, the best chance for severe weather will be tonight as a developing low pressure system pushes east off the Rockies.
423 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Large high pressure will settle across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
At 9 AM MDT upper low was centered near Ontario/OR with most of the rain on the west and south flanks of the low. The low center has been stationary for several hours but models take it northeast later today and tonight. Pcpn on the west side of the low will therefore move into southwest Idaho, and not end until late tonight.
124 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
As expected, some heavier cells have popped up given the proximity of this unusually deep upper low.
Tonight we also anticipate a return of the low level stratus from the east into central North Dakota, and this will also limit convection Thursday and Thursday evening.
115 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will continue to bring very quiet weather with plenty of sunshine through Thursday.
226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 We dealt with mostly cloudy skies along with some scattered showers and drizzle today, as an upper level low sat over Cookeville TN all morning. As we head into this evening and overnight, the low will eventually drift northward and become situated over central KY by tomorrow afternoon. However for tomorrow, with the upper low positioned just to our east, could not rule out some scattered rain shower activity once again, but mainly confined to parts of southwest IN and western KY. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge to our west will begin shifting eastward with time.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): The fairly stationary deep mid level low currently over Tennessee will slowly lift northeastward through the short term, while the mid level low over the Northwest continues to elongate and become an open trough. As this trough progresses northeastward, it effectively weakens the ridge over the central U. Under the ridge this afternoon, temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 90s across the region with high relative humidity values. As the ridge weakens, convection over the Sierra Madres will have the potential to drift across the Rio Grande into these western counties. Thursday will be hot and humid with similar heat indices, although slightly cooler than today under the weakening ridge, with no mentionable rain chances.
155 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 An upper low across the Ohio Valley will drift back to the north the next couple of days and continue to bring chances for light rain mainly near and southeast of Fort Wayne through Thursday night.
The upper low over eastern TN this evening will wobble/regress a bit to the west, resulting in some cyclonic flow stretching back into the northern reaches of MS.
Blocky pattern just to our east will keep the region on the backside of upper ridging/ahead of the west coast low through the short term.
348 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 The overall pattern remains unchanged across the CONUS with upper level ridging across the Plains between two closed lows: one over the Tennessee Valley and the other over the western US. Although winds will have more of a southerly component, cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 70s.
An upper level cyclonic flow will persist over the region into tonight as upper level low pressure retrogrades northwest across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. We went a bit below the model blend for highs today with a slight nudge towards the cooler NAM nest.
210 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Slow moving stacked low pressure brings rounds of showers and storms through much of the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures are steadily warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. However, chances are less today as there is more dry air in the lower levels than yesterday. Nonetheless, the low level steering flow remains from the southwest and a slight chance for showers will be maintained in the going forecast for today.
Additional unsettled weather continues through the TAF period as a cutoff upper low remains centered across the region. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 77 60 81 63 / 40 40 30 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 76 58 78 61 / 60 40 40 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 76 58 78 60 / 50 40 30 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 73 53 75 58 / 70 60 40 80 30.
117 PM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Today-Tonight: Active weather (compared to recent days) is anticipated in the lee of the Northern/Central Rockies this afternoon/evening as flow aloft backs to the S-SSW in advance of a deep upper level trough progressing eastward from the Intermountain West into the Rockies -- and southeasterly low- level flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee cyclone. At the start of the extended the models are showing an upper-level ridge amplifying over the Great Lakes region and upper-level Trough digging in over the Rockies.
With loss of heating Thursday evening, expect any ongoing scattered showers to wane, even as the slow-moving upper low makes its slow wobble northeast along the Ohio River.
1120 AM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Today-Tonight: Active weather (compared to recent days) is anticipated in the lee of the Northern/Central Rockies this afternoon/evening as flow aloft backs to the S-SSW in advance of a deep upper level trough progressing eastward from the Intermountain West into the Rockies -- and southeasterly low- level flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee cyclone. models are showing an upper-level pattern shifting with a H5 troughing more pronounced across the region.
Stacked low pressure is centered over the TN Valley this morning, and deep/moist easterly flow continues over KY on the north side of the cyclone. Highs will likely stay in the low 60s in the Bluegrass Region today, with mid and upper 60s common further west. Tonight, the closed low moves northwest toward the KY/TN border, and the LLJ does intensify once again over Huntington, WV. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s.
1221 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 GOES-16 satellite imagery and H5 heights show the stacked upper low still spinning near the Ohio River Valley and the western low still spinning over the Great Basin. In between these two lows, steep upper ridging has developed over the intermountain west and western Plains, building up and over the southern Canadian Provinces, and effectively cutting off the eastern low today.
100 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Persistent stratus clouds and patchy drizzle and fog continue across much of the forecast area early this morning on the backside of the slow moving cut-off upper low which has dropped southeast into south central TN. This low will move back northward into southern IN by late Thursday afternoon as it slowly fills. Prefer the slower forecast movement of the upper low by the GEFS and EPS ensemble means over the faster deterministic GFS model solution in this amplified blocky upper level pattern over the US. Low level clouds will continue on Thursday with only a slight chance of light showers in southeast MO and southwest IL, just west- northwest of the upper low.
The upper level ridge overhead will move east ahead of a mid- level longwave trough, which is currently centered near western Idaho.
The 12Z global model suite shows that our warm and dry pattern will continue tonight into Thursday as we are still impacted by the upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
316 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will continue to bring very quiet weather with plenty of sunshine through Thursday.
Earlier convection across Ga has stabilized parts of interior se Ga with the highest surface based instability now across the Suwannee Valley. Mid/upper low meandering over Tn today will start to shift north tonight. Ne Fl will remain dry as ridge builds in from the s. Warm and humid conditions will continue with temperatures reaching the lower 90s across ne Fl on Thursday.
126 PM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Deep western CONUS upper trough will slowly shift east and support increasing chances for TS in the western third through this evening.
/issued 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ The frontal boundary has sagged south of the I-20 corridor early this morning, and will become quasi-stationary before beginning to lift back north as a warm front this afternoon. Also, temperatures will be cooler today, as compared to the record-setting heat of yesterday afternoon.
1021 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 A wet pattern will continue into tonight as additional waves of showers and thunderstorms rotate through the region ahead of a strong low pressure system situated near the base of the southern Appalachians. Main upper level low will slowly begin lifting back to the north late tonight, but with plenty of moisture for much of the night, scattered showers should remain possible.
Expect clouds to expand along portions of the coast and adjacent coastal ridges tonight, with areas of fog and drizzle developing by morning.
623 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 210 PM CDT A large upper level blocking ridge remains in place across much of central and eastern North America. This has essentially trapped our upper level low over the TN Valley. The upper low will gradually work its way back to the north over KY and far southern IN into Thursday.
The overall pattern remains unchanged across the CONUS with upper level ridging across the Plains between two closed lows: one over the Tennessee Valley and the other over the western US. Although winds will have more of a southerly component, cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 70s.
550 PM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Deep western CONUS upper trough will slowly shift east and support increasing chances for TS in the western third through this evening.
Short wave energy is expected to continue ejecting north/northeast out of the intermountain trof through Thursday night. For Thursday another wave lifts north/northeast out across the High Plains and helps push the sfc boundary a little further east.
718 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 A wet pattern will continue into tonight as additional waves of showers and thunderstorms rotate through the region ahead of a strong low pressure system situated near the base of the southern Appalachians. Main upper level low will slowly begin lifting back to the north late tonight, but with plenty of moisture for much of the night, scattered showers should remain possible.
942 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Upper low continues to spin over Middle TN this evening with bands of clouds rotating into the Mid-South. /issued 327 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020/ A pair of strong, closed lows continue to pinch off an upper- level ridge over the central CONUS today. This ridge is currently building over the top of the east TN upper low, forming a bit of a Rex Block across the region. This will keep this pesky trough in place through tomorrow, resulting in little change in the weather across the Mid-South.
1026 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Large high pressure will settle across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
It will slowly turn cooler over the next few days, with the rain changing back to snow in the mountains.
While the ridge does extend into the lower levels, it is topped broad mid to upper level troughing. One outflow did help spark a few showers and a brief thunderstorm north of the Lower Keys. A broad ridge will remain across Florid through the overnight period, resulting in light southeast to south breezes across Keys waters.
An upper level low will keep cooler than normal temperatures and chances for rain around into the end of the week. cool evening continues as central Indiana remains on the north side of the stubborn upper low over the Tennessee Valley. The upper low will begin to move slowly to the N/NW tonight with a lobe of forcing aloft rotating around the top of the system from the east. The upper low will continue to drift closer during Thursday, so some weak upper energy will rotate west into the area. An upper low continues to sit over Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the start of the short term.