Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
806 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. A slow moving cold front will move slowly east from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will bring rain showers to the north country late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
732 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A cold front over the upper Midwest this evening will move into northern Indiana by Wednesday morning. The front will become stationary across our area Wednesday afternoon, then lift north Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the central Plains.
We have updated for warmer temperatures and added the Heat Advisory for this area. A dry cold front passing south through our CWA overnight into Friday morning, will drop temps back to more seasonal values.
This area is basically in the area that has cleared (on the edge of the low stratus clouds). The low stratus clouds should prevent dense fog across the central and southern valley. The upper low will continue to slowly propagate eastward leading to scattered showers, slowly ending from west to east through the day.
Dry and warm conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains dominant over the area. Strengthening upper ridge off the CA coast is providing for a clear night across our area. Meanwhile, the upper ridge is progged to build inland today and Friday which will bring warmer temepratures to our area as heights and thicknesses rise. The building ridge will also result in diminishing winds as p-grads relax.
A cold front and or outflow winds will bring a wind shift to GAG/WWR/PNC mainly after 6Z Friday. The wind may decrease some during the mid to late afternoon across northwest Oklahoma, as a cold front approaches. During the evening and especially the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop as a cold front approaches parts of northern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary from late Thursday/early Friday convection may complicate things, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along a cold front by late Friday afternoon.
934 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 With the ridge to our north and east will continue an easterly flow in the low levels which should push most of the shower and thunderstorm activity into the Suwannee Valley and other interior areas this afternoon and evening. Winds shift more toward the SSE Friday as high pressure builds across south Florida. This weekend SSW flow develops between the ridge to the south and an approaching surface front NW of the region.
This cold front will push into northwestern ND 12z-15z Thursday, then slowly shift from northwest to southeast later this afternoon through the overnight period. Thus, with proximity of the cold front and enough instability present, expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms west and north, but deep layer shear is absent and thus not expecting any organized severe thunderstorms to materialize at this time. Highest thunderstorm chances today will continue across the west and north, closest to the surface cold front and its movement to the southeast later this afternoon.
The rest of the Northland should see drier conditions as a very subtle low-amplitude mid-level ridge builds into the region.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: Some showers have developed overnight in response to an upper-level trough of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. The highest POPs and likely highest rainfall accumulations through today and tonight will be found along and south of the trough's center - or across southeast Mississippi.
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 H5 analysis tonight had a fairly zonal pattern across the lower 48 with a fairly active northern stream.
/issued 424 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ Upper ridge extending up from Northern Mexico across the area today and Friday will result if hot temperatures for the region. The ridge axis along the West Coast will be displaced east as an upper trough moves ashore and pushes east. However high pressure will remain over the region. Ahead of the trough a moist south wind expected but behind it a west/southwest downslope wind will result in much warmer and drier conditions.
/issued 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ A calm morning is ongoing around the Mid-South currently, with temperatures in the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. Latest surface analysis depicts an anticyclone centered off the coast of North Carolina, resulting in southerly surface flow around the local area.
12z BNA RAOB and satellite/radar trends suggest a little more moisture in the lower layers than was apparent earlier this morning. 5 C/km, with a weak inversion also apparent around 700mb, which will limit available CAPE and make it tough initially for any parcels that get going, but an approaching 500mb trough should increase large scale ascent through peak heating allowing for a slightly more favorable shower/thunderstorm environment across the area this afternoon. A gradual moistening trend will continue today through Friday night ahead of a cold front. The highest rain chances will be Friday night as the cold front reaches southeast MO and southern IL.
Went a little cooler for highs over west central IL where cloud cover more extensive from MCS over northern MO, eastern KS and southern IA. Same low has a cold front draped back into the Plains.
As for temps today, if any delta exists believe it could be few degrees warmer north and a few degrees cooler south. Looks overall like a drying trend for much of the weekend with seasonal temps as high pressure gradually builds in.
Otherwise, hotter today than the last several days as the thermal ridge builds into the area. Even the southeast counties will begin to push into the low to mid 90s.
The Atlantic ridge axis across the southeastern United States coast is directing light winds out of the southeast this morning. The Atlantic ridge mentioned above will gradually move southeastward while gaining strength resulting in increasing winds out of the east to southeast.
Location of the warm front will determine the northern extent of more significant type of storms/weather. I think the warm front is currently further south than what the models depict. All models bring the warm front north during the day, but right now I'm leaning toward the more southern location solutions. Storms will still develop along elevated warm front and hence went with higher pops across southern sections of the CWA, but feel even higher pops will be to the south of forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler today than those of yesterday due to influence of the cooler air behind yesterday's front, but also because of cloud cover and precip. Highs will be a degree or two cooler than today, in the 70s.
That said, the better potential appears to be to our east in the vicinity of the surface warm front. This evening and tonight, more convection is expected to develop across the high plains in associated with a H500 wave and track through the area. along with distinct breaks in chances for precipitation as transitory ridges of high pressure make their way across the local area. expect a relatively cooler day across the local area as a weak front and upper level disturbance make their way across the local area. expect high pressure across the intermountain west to transition east.
The Canadian Prairie upper-level low pressure system will push a subtle short- wave impulse through NE Montana later today through this evening. Latest 00z models have an upper ridge sliding across the northwestern U.
The higher coverage looks to be east of I-65, where deeper moisture will be present. The primary large scale upper trough finally swings down into the Upper Midwest Friday night.
Another line of showers with a thunderstorm embedded was moving through northwest North Dakota along and ahead of a cold front. This cold front will push into northwestern ND 12z-15z Thursday, then slowly shift from northwest to southeast later this afternoon through the overnight period. Thus, with proximity of the cold front and enough instability present, expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms west and north, but deep layer shear is absent and thus not expecting any organized severe thunderstorms to materialize at this time. Highest thunderstorm chances today will continue across the west and north, closest to the surface cold front and its movement to the southeast later this afternoon.
1022 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A warmer and more humid airmass will work into the region on southerly winds as low pressure in the northern Great Lakes region drapes a cold front southwest towards Texas on Friday.
This activity is likely to weaken and dissipate Friday morning, with redevelopment of strong to severe storms expected Friday afternoon near the cold front and/or outflow boundaries from earlier convection.
Overall heights are rising slightly today as the upper low over Canada which had brought the period of unsettled weather begins shifting away from the region. Tonight begins a drying trend as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest and northwest flow aloft over Montana pushes moisture into southern Wyoming. With heights building faster west of the Continental Divide on Friday it causes surface pressures to be higher over western Montana and some minor surface troffing over north central Montana. This yields a shift to a slight downslope flow and yields a quick jump of 10 to 15 degrees warmer for Friday with no precipitation expected.
High pressure is ridging across the area at the surface and aloft with a stationary surface boundary in place across the northern peninsula. The ridging will allow for light winds overnight, and a predominant SE flow turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Temperatures will be generally in the lower 90s for highs with afternoon heat index values in the lower 100s, and in the 70s for lows.
Same low has a cold front draped back into the Plains.
With plenty of tropical moisture in place, it will feel hot with heat indices likely reaching into the lower 100s across many areas as well, especially south.
A weak upper level trough will drop south out of Montana today for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, generally over the West Central Mountains, before it moves east out of the region this evening.
and Friday Mostly dry conditions and gusty west winds are expected today in the wake of a low pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes region. Despite the passage of a cold front temperatures today will actually be warmer this afternoon given a deeper mixed layer across the region as highs range from the middle to upper 60s across north-central Wisconsin, with highs around 80 across east- central Wisconsin.
KGUY and KDHT will have a more northerly wind shift after 19Z as a cold front starts to work slowly southward. The northerly winds across the Oklahoma Panhandle today will be a precursor to a cold frontal passage late tonight to early Friday morning.
High pressure off the VA/NC coast ridges west and southwest. The ridge results in a prevailing southeasterly low level flow that shifts to westerly in the afternoon and provides a focus for mid to late afternoon thunderstorms. A high pressure ridge axis north of the waters will provide prevailing east and southeast winds although shifting to onshore during an afternoon sea breeze.
1120 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow over the next several days.
Dry and stable conditions will be in place today, with high pressure poised to rebuild over the area over the next 24 hours.
A trough over the eastern half of the area is moving off to the east today as a ridge approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. With the ridge strengthening as it approaches our area, Central Oregon will be 3-4 degrees warmer than yesterday and the Columbia Basin and eastern mountains will be similar to yesterday. Tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Columbia Basin and in the mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.
757 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
A dry cold front passing south through our CWA overnight into Friday morning, will drop temps back to more seasonal values.
High pressure, centered about 300 nautical miles offshore, continues to dominate weather conditions across the forecast area. Northwest flow continues aloft due to the fringe effects of an upper level trough centered over the northern Rockies. Little change is expected in the weather through the forecast period as high pressure generally remains in control.
The low clouds and fog (mvfr/ifr) have already dissipated at the coast north of Cape Blanco, but will be slower to recede in the Umpqua basin and Brookings.
747 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow over the next several days.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM determinisic and GFS ensemble output suggest that the weak quasi-stationary upper trough will slowly dissipate during the period, while thickness values increase. The combination of the trough and moisture will contribute to isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA Today.
Slightly cooler temperatures exist across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, where more dense cloud cover exists. This activity is likely to weaken and dissipate Friday morning, with redevelopment of strong to severe storms expected Friday afternoon near the cold front and/or outflow boundaries from earlier convection.
A trough over the eastern half of the area is moving off to the east today as a ridge approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. With the ridge strengthening as it approaches our area, Central Oregon will be 3-4 degrees warmer than yesterday and the Columbia Basin and eastern mountains will be similar to yesterday. Tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Columbia Basin and in the mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. An upper level ridge will build over the region through the period.
945 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Mid level ridge of high pressure will extend from Lake Okeechobee ENE across the Atlantic into this afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 80s along the east coast and around 90 to the lower 90s for the interior.
449 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
One last dry day in the forecast ended yesterday, and a series of troughs will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through most of the forecast. On Friday, another trough will move eastward from the Plains, and bring additional precip chances to the area.
As the low level jet weakens later this morning with the main core shifting toward the eastern Great Lakes Region, models indicate that the coverage of convection will decrease, with only isolated coverage of storms expected this afternoon.
Added another row of counties to the wind advisory, south of the current advisory, to include Lake Sakakawea, some of the higher elevations of western ND south of the Missouri River, and a couple more counties in the Coteau area north of I-94.
Did not stray far guidance for lows tonight and took a blend of the warmer mav and cooler met guidance for highs on Friday.
1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Abbreviated discussion once again for ongoing severe convection approaching the highway 14 corridor. In addition, surface inversion is somewhat weak with temperatures hanging in the lower 70s. Storms work out of the region this evening leading to a cooler more tranquil overnight. Dominant feature of the forecast for Friday through the weekend will be cooler temperatures along with very comfortable dewpoints.
The front will also bring noticeably cooler air into the northern/central part of the area. This front makes a good push to our south by late June standards taking the edge off of the high temperatures for a few days. We remain under northwesterly flow aloft and continue with some chances of precipitation with both the moisture return from the south and the possibility of convection moving off the High Plains toward the area.
The low pressure system itself will move into western Tennessee and then slide east northeast and begin to merge with a cold front. As the low gets closer to the area we will see an increase in showers and storms once again, this time along and north of the I-20 corridor.
Central Canadian upper low is continuing to drift east/southeast toward the Great Lakes with a secondary upper low pushing into central Canada. A cold front is now crossing northwest MT with breezy northwest winds and temps in the 50s/60s behind the boundary. This front will quickly cross the region tonight with temps dropping into the 40s across the plains and 30s over the higher Black Hills. Some location could approach or break record lows especially across the higher northern Black Hills into northeast Wyoming.
High pressure and northwest flow over the area will produce cool temperatures into the weekend.
Cooler air will filter across the region behind a cold front on Friday with breezy northwest winds, but with mainly dry conditions.
132 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 This is the last day of rather warm temperatures as a strong cold front will move in tonight. The most noticeable result will be a cooler and less humid airmass.
Cooler temperatures will continue filtering into the area behind a low pressure crossing southern Canada. An upper low moving thru Ontario into the western Great Lakes region during the upcoming weekend will bring a relatively cool, northwesterly flow pattern to the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Satellite-derived precipitable water values are near 2 inches along and east of the Highway 77 corridor this afternoon. Temperatures on Friday are set to increase as subsidence associated with the subtropical ridge axis builds in from the west. In addition, the low-level thermal ridge will amplify across western and central Texas ahead of a cold front moving into southern Oklahoma.
/issued 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/ Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue through the next seven days with a nearly stationary upper ridge centered across the southwest United States. 850 millibar temperature forecasts suggest that Friday's high temperatures will be a couple of degree cooler most areas. Friday night appears to be a stormy one as a strong cold front plunges south into the region with a couple of strong upper level disturbances.
Downsloping south to southwest winds and the influence of the western ridge are combining to produce the dangerous heat. A strong pressure gradient has developed today and is expected to persist tonight and Friday as departing tropical storm Cindy, high pressure over the Gulf and a thermal low over west Texas all combine producing the gusty winds.
A warm front extended from southern Minnesota, through far northeast Iowa, into northern Illinois during the overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles favor a linear storm mode as widespread storms push southeast along an advancing cold front. Friday: I will maintain a chance for showers and thunderstorms in our far se cwa early in the morning, as the cold front continues to make progress to the southeast.
In addition, a cold front will begin to push into the Mid-South Friday afternoon.
This translate into higher temperature dewpoints and warmer temperatures on Friday morning.
1102 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Upper level analysis has fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains, with strong upper low over Manitoba. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies into the far northern Plains, with the cold front now south and east of the forecast area. Cooler air will move into the area this morning, with highs only in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Northwest winds behind the cold front will be breezy again across the South Dakota plains at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.
This evening a stronger cold front pushes into the forecast area. Further south the low level moisture is better, but a strong cap remains in place. The model consensus has the cold front pushing south of the forecast area Friday morning with dryer air moving south behind it.
A cold front will move into the area by sunrise Friday morning and sweep through the area by Friday afternoon. Much drier airmass will filter into the region this weekend with very nice temperatures along with high pressure. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 50s this weekend.
307 PM MST Thu Jun 22 2017 Anticipate little change in temperatures Friday as high pressure remains situated across northern Mexico. Storm chances return to the higher terrain as well.
Cannot rule out a brief spinup given the low-level shear in place. By this point it will be absorbed into a cold front that will swing through our region that evening.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with the highest chances across the western zones. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures. Southerly winds at around 15 knots can be expected today across western Kansas ahead of a surface cold front which will be approaching Hays and Garden City by early evening. As this cold front continues to move south overnight these southerly winds will shift to the north. In addition to the shifting winds with this cold front there will also be a chance for some scattered thunderstorms late today and early tonight.
Models have slowed the progress of the surface cold front with passage now expected Friday evening. Friday night temperatures cool off in the lower to middle 60s.
Much cooler tonight from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs only in the lower 70s most areas.
Models continue to show a transition to cooler temps behind a cold front that is progged to push across the plains between 12-15Z. Highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler to the east of the Laramie Range, back to around normal.
As has been stated previously, since our area will be on the western side of the cyclone there will be no impact from this system, aside from the increased cloud cover today.
For this forecast package will cancel Lake Wind advisory across deep east Texas and will extend advisory through 10 PM on the east side of the low across north Louisiana. Rainfall totals of around 3 to 4 inches may be possible on south and east side of the low across areas within the flash flood watch. A cold front will move south across the region on Friday bringing continued widespread rain chances. Temperatures on Friday to approach 90 ahead of the front with overnight low temperatures falling into the lower to middle 70s. Rain chances to gradually diminish through the weekend with temperatures ranging from highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
The remnants of Cindy will take an abrupt turn to the east toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday due to a cold front arriving from the Plains.
Mesoscale models still have convection developing across the area by middle evening and pushing southeast with the cold front, with the HRRR developing convection by 00Z to the north of the area.
There is another chance of thunderstorms across central KS late this afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front approaches from the north.
Britt Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday, especially during the morning and especially across southeast MO and southwest IL as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy moves from AR into TN and a cold front moves southeastward through the forecast area. The precipitation will move south-southeast of the forecast area by Friday evening as the cold front shifts southeast of the region, while the remnants of Cindy moves eastward through the Tennessee Valley region. Temperatures will be cooler Friday night due to low level cold air advection, a clearing sky, and surface dew points lowering into the 50s.
After a bit of a cooler day today, temperatures will start to slowly increase again beginning tomorrow, along with drier conditions.
The next round of thunderstorms will initiate near an advancing cold front.