Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 It looks like the trof/weather system that has been affecting us for a while will finally lift out of the area the next 12 hours. With cloud cover holding in for much of the are overnight, have raised low temperatures to the warmer MAV levels.
A weak disturbance will move through northeastern Montana tonight which could kick off a few light showers across our northeast zones near Miles City and Baker overnight, but expect only a dusting of snow with these showers tonight, and mostly outside the river valleys and within the higher hills.
Higher heights will be moving overhead Friday as an upper ridge pushes over the western US. Expect warmer and drier conditions Friday with only isolated snow showers expected over the highest terrain. Friday night a broad upper trough will be over the central and eastern United States with an upper level ridge of high pressure along the west coast. This pattern should result in dry weather across north central and northeast Colorado, with the exception of scattered snow showers over the higher mountains.
These show a weakening trend in the precip over the next few hours before an enhancement again this afternoon just ahead of the cold front. Swath of heavier rainfall now travelling across south central Kentucky as an area of low pressure, now over the mid MS Valley, rides along a stationary front across the Ohio River Valley. Friday, we should see highs in the low/mid 50s under that cloud cover/lingering light rains.
Some uncertainty remains in the forecast with how much cloud cover accompanies the warmer air returning to the region Friday afternoon. Looking at H850 NAM/GFS temperatures and 00z Euro temperatures suggests that afternoon highs might be a touch cooler than today's forecast. Highs should still recover nicely from overnight lows of the lower/mid 20s north to the upper 20s south and reach the lower 40s north to the lower 50s in the south.
A cold front passage will bring cigs back down to MVFR tonight with isolated light showers.
High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week supporting a continued steady warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week. Ridging aloft continues to steadily build over the SW Conus in response to rather broad downstream troughing enveloping the entire eastern Conus.
Coastal temps took an even bigger dive today than expected as the marine layer barely cleared to the coast and kept that cooler maritime air within a few miles of the beaches. Further inland though temps were about the same or even slightly warmer than yesterday in a few areas.
Strong southerly flow has developed across our area ahead of a potent upper level trough moving across the central US. A large complex of showers continues to move eastward along a cold front stretching from northern AL into southern MS and southeastern LA; these features will continue to push southeastward into our area during the evening hours. Latest models show 0-1 km helicity values over 200 m^2/s^2 and 0-1 km shear values from 20-30 kts, which could support an isolated tornado embedded in the line of showers and thunderstorms despite the low instability. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with lows in the lower-mid 60s across our area.
530 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure was building in from the Northern Plains this afternoon with sunny skies resulting across our area. High pressure will drift overhead tonight, providing mostly clear skies with low dropping into the upper teens to middle 20s. A weak mid-level trough ripple through north central WI Friday for a chance of a rain/snow mix mainly north of Highway 10.
However, a dry slot can be seen poking into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley to our west, and that will help to keep overall rainfall amounts this evening on the lighter side. The rain will diminish overnight as a cold front currently aligned along the IN/KY border pushes through. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower and middle 30s.
A weak cold front, extending from southern BC out into the Pacific, will move into our CWA late Friday, but most areas will get warmer than today before the front arrives.
1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Cold front blew through this morning and can expect gusty N wind to continue a few more hours before decreasing late in the day.
Currently, long wave trough over much of North America with northwest flow over the Dakotas.
133 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Cold front working through eastern forecast area but cold air moving in behind the front is only marginal. Much cooler today with temps topping out from the lower 30s north to lower 40s south.
649 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Low pressure will track northeast through eastern New York overnight and into northern Maine by Friday morning. A trailing cold front will push offshore Friday afternoon.
A cold front will keep the low chance of rain at Taf sites, while winds from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph switch to the west and northwest at 5 to 15 mph. It was associated with the upper low pressure trough and the surface cold front. The cold front was located over northwest AR, and it will continue to move east today and help push much of the rain to the east. Winds will also shift to the northwest behind the cold front. As the system exits to the northeast, a cold front will push through the region. Rain over the north will keep temperatures cool/below average today, with much warmer/above average readings across the southern counties. High pressure will build over the area on Friday, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the near term.
534 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Another night of rain can be expected before cold frontal passage ends it on Friday. An encroaching cold front will increase rain coverage and intensity this evening. Cooler conditions expected tomorrow as temperatures struggle to recover into the 40s with persistent strong cold advection. Precipitation should be largely east of the ridges by early afternoon, and clouds will diminish through the evening as high pressure builds in over the region.
Upper ridge will build east across the Rockies tonight with clear skies and low temperatures in the middle to upper 20s. Upper ridge continues to strengthen on Friday, while lee trough develops at the surface in eastern Colorado. Expect so see gusty southwesterly winds in response to the lee trough, which will aid in warming. Favored warmer end of guidance for high temperatures, but still may not be warm enough.
Dry and warm conditions with light winds are expected the rest of this week as high pressure builds across the region.
124 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida. /issued 919 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters today into tonight keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida along with the dry weather. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled for Palm Beach coastal areas. Maximum temperatures are forecast within a degree of normal this afternoon, in the low 80s. Maximum temperatures will again be similar to todays, generally in the lower 80s, typical for this time of year.
100 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 /18Z TAFS/ A cold front is sweeping across West Central Texas early this afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon will subside this evening as high pressure settles in over the area. The fog will gradually burn off later this morning as a cold front moves across the area. This should continue for a couple more hours before a cold front sweeps through the area with northwest winds around 20kt and drier air. Expect the moisture to clear quickly later this morning as a Pacific cold front moves across the area. Expect slightly cooler temperatures overnight with lows in the mid 40s under mostly clear skies.
A strong ridge stays in place today into Friday with seasonably warm weather. Aside a few passing high clouds over the area, mostly clear skies continue to dominate the region as an upper level ridge remains parked over the eastern Pacific. Temperatures as of the noon hour are running a few to several degrees warmer than what they were at this time yesterday. The warmest locations are forecast to be in the North Bay Valleys, the Santa Clara Valley between San Jose and Gilroy, and the Salinas Valley, where temperatures will likely reach the low to middle 80s. The upper level ridge will gradually shift eastward over the next 24 hours, and perhaps gradually become less amplified.
/issued 1057 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ A cold front currently stretches from just north of the Ohio River southwestward into North Central Arkansas. A secondary round of light to moderate rain will move into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and portions of Northwest Tennessee this afternoon ahead of the cold front. This convection appears to be along a surface reflection of the passing upper trough.
/Issued 1000 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ Cold front still stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through the ARKLATEX. A wave, and pre frontal trough, are situated across east central MS and southern LA. Made a few tweaks to the forecast, mainly for timing of the expected pre-frontal trough/line of convection. /Issued 740 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ A longwave upper trough will move eastward into the MS Valley today. helping to push a cold front across AL into GA later today into tonight.
A line of showers along a pre-frontal trough has finally reached our western border and will continue to slowly track east across the area through the evening. PoPs will decrease once the pre-frontal trough moves through by midnight, but chance PoPs will continue until the cold front moves through late tonight and tomorrow morning. A midlevel trough axis and vort max to our north will keep some low precip chances going for northern sections into the afternoon. Some broken afternoon sunshine will bring southern sections into the lower 60s.
Cooler weather arrives for Easter weekend with unsettled weather. More substantial precipitation will begin this evening with increased moisture convergence and lift as the aforementioned boundary begins to cross the forecast area as a cold front. Cooler conditions expected tomorrow as temperatures struggle to recover into the 40s with persistent strong cold advection. Precipitation should be largely east of the ridges by early afternoon, and clouds will diminish through the evening as high pressure builds in over the region.
305 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Post-frontal stratus has been eroding today as a trough to the west is kicking off some light snow/rain showers in western Nebraska, but much of this precipitation will fall apart as it moves east as support dwindles. Friday may very well be our warmest day of the week, or at least on par with past Wedneday, out ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
A few brief bursts of moderate snowfall can be expected through the afternoon in the higher terrain as mid-level lapse rates remain around 7. Temperatures will run slightly warmer than last night for lows as heights begin to slowly rise. in the highest elevations. With h5 heights continuing to slowly rise, afternoon highs will be at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer on Friday area- wide.
However, the low clouds will also include areas along the coast north of Cape Blanco. The ridge axis will flatten out Friday as a weak upper trough approaches 130W Friday evening.
209 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure was building in from the Northern Plains this afternoon with sunny skies resulting across our area. High pressure will drift overhead tonight, providing mostly clear skies with low dropping into the upper teens to middle 20s. A weak mid-level trough ripple through north central WI Friday for a chance of a rain/snow mix mainly north of Highway 10.
High pressure aloft will remain near the West Coast through the end of the week. This high pressure will weaken as it enters the Great Basin this weekend.
Current surface map places weak area of high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. with warm front lifting through western South Dakota. Low shifts into south central North Dakota Friday evening, with cold front dropping into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota.
Cooler weather arrives for Easter weekend with unsettled weather. More substantial precipitation will begin this evening with increased moisture convergence and lift as the aforementioned boundary begins to cross the forecast area as a cold front. Temperatures will struggle to recover into the 40s on Friday as strong cold advection persists, and many mountain areas may be held in the 30s for highs! Precipitation will end across the mountains early Friday, but clouds will persist until evening with rapid clearing occurring as strong high pressure quickly passes south of the region. Flow quickly weakens during the day and with increased subsidence from transitory surface anticyclone, any lake enhanced showers will be confined close to the lake shore. There could be residual rain and snow showers in the higher terrain of western Maryland and northern West Virginia during the morning.
Sunshine has been working its way into the region this afternoon, but we do have another reinforcing cold front expected to move down across the area later tonight.
432 PM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 ***Winter weather makes a return to northeast Montana beginning tonight*** The large low pressure system anchored over the Hudson Bay region and its low pressure trough extension through northeast Montana will be the driving force for a return to winter weather conditions across the area over the next few days at least.
GOES-R water vapor imagery is in agreement with multiple global model height fields in their placement of a deep trough located over north Texas and much of Oklahoma. To our southeast, upper level ridging is analyzed over south Florida, west-central Cuba and much of the Bahamas. Toward the surface, diffuse troughing was depicted in surface analyses from east-central Texas northeast into the central and northern Ohio Valley. Overnight convection across the lower Mississippi River Valley south into Louisiana has produced a cold pool with an outflow boundary that is acting as a focus for convective development across eastern Mississippi.
The late March sun allowed temperatures to climb into the middle 40s for most of the area even with widespread cold air advection in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. To the west, a relatively weak upper level short wave trough, evident in water vapor imagery and as a PV anomaly, was producing enough forcing for vertical motion to support precipitation development through central Nebraska. A separate and slightly more intense short wave trough was producing mixed precipitation showers and even a few lightning strikes in far western Nebraska. Temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 50s and Min RH values are likely to be in the lower 30s but there is some potential to go lower yet and fire danger will climb into the high to very high category by late afternoon.
The high waves may continue into the Fri AM daylight hours. Medium A broad upper trough will move across the Upper Mississippi valley tonight and exit Wisconsin Friday morning. High pressure will move across the mid Mississippi Valley Friday with cold temperatures, but light winds.
Skies to become mostly clear overnight as upper-level ridging builds areawide. Temperatures on Friday to climb into the lower 70s with overnight lows again in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
A Nicer Day on Friday With a Break In The Wet Weather Upper level trough is finally beginning to move out of the region this evening with rain ending from west to east across the eastern Ozarks. High pressure moving over the area tomorrow will allow for a pretty day with light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 for the afternoon.
Considerably warmer with more sunshine and downslope west winds aiding in the warming trend. Next strong push of cold air moves across much of our counties in the wake of a Canadian origin cold front. Will see a chance of light snow behind the cold front, roughly north of a Douglas to Alliance line.
This trend should continue through the remainder of the afternoon as surface ridging builds from the north. However, southwest flow aloft will continue through the late afternoon and evening as the main trough axis pushes eastward. There is also a slight chance of light rain showers underneath the trough axis this afternoon over areas along and south of the Missouri River, though this should be brief. Northwest flow will overspread the area tonight, while clearing skies and cold advection will bring surface temps down to near or just below freezing tonight.
252 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 An upper level trough was pulling away from us this afternoon, causing storminess for the MS Valley, and leaving us with cool northwesterly flow.
Mostly clear skies prevail across interior Northern California as the eastern Pacific ridge remains centered just off the CA coast. Temperatures are projected to peak in the lower to mid 80s across the Valley this afternoon. 850mb temperatures will again reach around 15C Friday afternoon, which when mixed dry adiabatically to the surface would signal another day with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in the Valley. The ridge axis will shift overhead late Friday, which will bring a decrease in breezy north winds.
Highs on Friday will climb in the lower to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
241 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Pre-frontal trough/line of showers and thunderstorms has made some eastward progress this afternoon and is now entering western portions of AL. Both features will continue to push east overnight, with the pre-frontal trough beginning to impact the NW portion of the CWFA before sunset.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest GOES 16-R imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm, continues to depict a late season middle and upper trough situated across the Western CONUS generally west of the Mississippi River. Conversely, Mid and upper ridging encompasses the Eastern CONUS east of the Mississippi River including the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida and the Florida Keys. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with both marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm, details a nearly stationary frontal system positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to Texas. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the middle 60s.
After round 1 ends earlier Friday attention will turn to round 2 which looks to be the higher impact storm with blizzard conditions possible. This storm is driven by a deepening lee cyclone passing to the south in northern South Dakota. Models do have some variability in the higher totals right now with the ECMWF to the north along the Highway 2 corridor and the GFS down farther to the south more in the Devils Lake to Fargo and Wahpeton area. NAM is in between the two and generally has some of the highest QPF and snow totals. Overall this is a high impact event but the specific locations of the highest snow totals are still uncertain.
Snowfall amounts at the highest elevations will likely end up in the 1 to 3 inch range with a few spots seeing a bit more than that.
The surge of high pressure will increase winds late tonight and more Friday morning, but not anything too strong with winds gusty near the coast Friday. The high will shift rapidly to the east late Friday and onshore flow will return to the area. Thus, we will not see a big cool down for this front, especially near the coast (it will feel cooler over the northern areas especially Victoria Crossroads). Temperature forecast a blend of short-term and MOS guidance, closer to the cooler temperatures to the north especially Friday night.
253 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 201 PM CDT With the exception of lingering rain showers across far southeast portions of the CWA this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves southeastward across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier SW return flow behind the departing ridge axis early Friday afternoon combined with daytime mixing should erode the residual clouds by early evening.
This will help clear skies and usher in cooler temperatures. Lows are forecast to near freezing for those south of I-70 and just below freezing north of I-70.
103 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 For the 29/18Z TAF period, CU field in wake of the departing upper trough continues to lift early this afternoon with most sites VFR to begin this period. Secondary cold front to push on through the remainder of the region this afternoon and evening will shift winds to N/NW with some breezy conditions invof of front with brief gusts around fropa. Otherwise, gradual clearing to commence this evening behind the front with some residual low clouds possible toward daybreak due to high moisture content in the low levels from recent rains.
An upper level ridge off the coast will keep the Pacific Northwest under a northwest flow.
Cold front will also be pushing south through northern SD late tonight, with northeast winds and colder temps behind this front. The period starts off with a respectable mid level trof over the central and eastern CONUS. The trof over time does flatten out as fast moving energy moves across the western CONUS.
322 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 A cold front has just pushed into Northeast Arkansas at this time. Meanwhile, a line of convection is beginning to develop across Eastern Arkansas ahead of the approaching cold front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South by Friday afternoon into the Friday evening. The high will quickly shift east.
Some enhancement in shower activity may occur ahead of final cold frontal push late this afternoon/early evening, but over flood impacts look to be quite low. A cold front was on the move again this afternoon as a second wave of low surface pressure continued to move northeastward across the PAH forecast area. The main mid level trof axis will pass through the PAH forecast area early Fri, delaying clearing of clouds somewhat. The front is progged to sink through our region Sat night, transferring the highest PoPs to the southern half. With time we will see a low amplitude NW flow pattern influenced by energy over the Pacific Northwest that will move southeast, and develop a s/wv trof that should be over the Upper Midwest by 00z Wed.
High pressure shifts to the SE tonight as a cold front pushes into northern FL. Lows tonight will be in the 60s, with highs Friday in the mid 70s to lower 80s north, and in the lower to mid 80s central and south. Upper level ridge breaks down over Florida Thursday night with flow becoming zonal through the period.
Tonight through Friday night: A northwest to southeast oriented storm track of approach/exit remains as a longwave trof with ridge axis off the coast lingers in place through this time interval. A low pressure system drops down this path and brings breezy/gusty winds along with showers primarily for the mountains as it moves through tomorrow and exits via a path into Western Montana tomorrow night. Expectation is with the disturbance passage the lower level of the atmosphere will mix more effectively and, coupled with the warm air advection associated with the prevailing lower level southwest winds, allow for forecast temperatures to warm to slight above what would be considered normal for this time of year.
200 PM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Water vapor shows long wave trof entrenched across the central CONUS. Distinct short wave trof crossing western/central SD has been responsible for some snow across much of the region today. A much different day expected Friday as a warm front lifts through the western Dakotas, producing gusty southwest winds and much warmer temps. Next clipper system crosses ND Friday night, sweeping a strong cold front through the region Friday evening.