Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The monster upper level ridge over the western CONUS continues to strengthen and thus warding off any significant precipitation maker over the next several days.
254 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Our region is in a deformation zone on the northeast side of a broad upper low roughly centered over northern MS. Given the upper low slowly drifting closer our way, we could see isolated to scattered showers form at any point during the night. Saturday, the upper low will get into central Kentucky, but if you look south for the weather occurring today, we could expect widespread rainfall, but not with the higher amounts we'd see today.
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The upper trough over the N Central Gulf continues to send PVA over the area to generate strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with strong microburst wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes possible. The upper trough will continue to slowly lift northward out of the region tonight with low level flow backing E-SE through the weekend for a more typical summertime temp and late afternoon/evening precip pattern areawide.
1042 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Another pretty morning in the four state area with top of the last hour temps in the low 80s for an average.
228 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 GOES-16 GeoColor RGB highlights the large area across the western CONUS engulfed by wildfire smoke from Califonia advecting along the north side of the upper level ridge. Height increases continue across the region today and Saturday as warmer temperatures and drier weather settles in. An outside chance for showers are possible across the Nebraska Panhandle and extreme southeastern Wyoming associated with increased convergence from a lee side trough.
223 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Our trof with tropical origins continues to lift northward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Thunderstorm activity associated with this trof so far today has been confined to locations near the TN border. However, have maintained slight to chance POPs overnight over much of western KY, which will be closer to the trof axis. On Saturday, convection will blossom again as the trof moves north through the Lower Ohio Valley.
1051 AM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The arrival of a vigorous cold front this afternoon will bring gusty winds to the Inland Northwest as well as rain to the Washington Cascades.
251 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Warm, dry high pressure will be present over the Northern Rockies today. A fast-moving and mostly dry cold front is expected to clip northwest and west central Montana Saturday morning. For much of the Northern Rockies, Saturday afternoon will become quite breezy and a bit cooler than today.
Through early evening any activity should be isolated to widely scattered in nature until after 05Z when the low level jet and warm/moisture advection kick in.
319 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The extended dry period will continue through the weekend (and beyond) as the westerlies remain along the Canadian border leaving the forecast area in the downstream shield of the upper ridge over the western U. The upper ridge will however flatten a bit as it shifts eastward into the Plains. An important weakness in the ridge though is expected to form from Missouri southward potentially offering an alley for the remnants of the tropical systems to venture northward.
Carrothers Cold front was marching across the forecast area, clearing all but the far southeast. Winds have turned to the northwest and northeast behind the front and this will allow for a cooler day. Despite the frontal passage, ridge to the south was still strong and thus highs will remain warmer than seasonal norms, with late afternoon readings in the lower 90s for most places today. Saturday will be warmer with the upper ridge building back in earnest. Some monsoon moisture does push up toward the higher terrain, but energy with it was very weak.
341 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Closed upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley slowly opening up and getting "squeezed" north as the western Atlantic ridge builds back to the west through the forecast period.
Large scale mid tropospheric pattern is similar to yesterday, with a ridge extending from AZ up into Alberta and Saskatchewan. A trough stretches from MI down to the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. There was a weak closed low in the trough near the border of MS and AL. Surface analysis at 2 pm had a weak trough from eastern ND down into western NE.
High pressure aloft over the desert southwest centers itself over the 4-corners region and expands over the western U. Except for the slim chance of a few thunderstorms moving along the Kansas and Nebraska border region this evening, dry and warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 95-100 range while lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. To start the work week, the upper level high will be centered over the Four Corner states with the ridge extending from the West Coast to the Great Plains. The cut-off low over the Southeast has a negative tilted trough extending into south-central Texas causing a northeast-northwest upper level flow across the Tri-State area.
Ridging will continue to build tonight and into tomorrow, bringing near record high temperatures and clear skies. Dry air has also filled in behind last nights cold front which will drop relative humidity into the low teens to even the single digits for tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain quiet during this time so the main fire weather concern is the low humidity.
High pressure is back in control for East Idaho through the weekend.
Disturbances crossing the area aloft associated with closed mid- upper level low and slight increase in mid level W/SW winds may allow for some strong to isolated severe storms to form, with the main impacts including frequent lightning strikes, winds gusts up to 50 to 60 mph, small hail and locally heavy rainfall. (Previous Discussion) With vicinity of upper trough, deep moisture and energy aloft, SCT-NMRS shra/tsra continue across the local coastal waters, especially south of the Volusia-Brevard County line early on. A weak high pressure ridge axis will lift slowly across the area and should lie across north-central Fl by daybreak Sat morning.
/issued 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ An upper level low is centered over MS this morning. /issued 321 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ Weak cyclonic flow at the surface and a highly amplified mid level trough centered just East of the Mississippi River Valley is helping to maintain an area of showers and thunderstorms on the East side of the trough over North Mississippi. As storms approach the Mississippi River/trough axis they should move into a less supportive environment and weaken. Over the next 24 hours or so the Trough will remain nearly stationary then broaden and shift slightly farther East tonight into Early Saturday. More cloud cover today may keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday.
The relatively weak sfc gradient should therefore allow a respectable degree of radiational cooling tonight, supporting overnight mins in the low 60s (mid/upper 60s in urban Detroit).
The higher impact weather event will be the potential for dense fog development overnight into tomorrow morning.
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Upper trough axis is aligned over western TN this afternoon. On Saturday, the intensity of the upper low weakens as it opens up a bit.
A weak cold front on track for tonight that will lower temps slight tomorrow to seasonable values tomorrow.
Upper high over the Four Corners region will allow for a northerly upper flow tonight across the Panhandles. The upper high will remain over the Four Corners region Saturday through Saturday night with the upper flow transitioning to more north northeasterly and then northeasterly.
229 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Western CONUS ridge will slowly shift east in the period. Northern periphery of the ridge will fluctuate with topping disturbances. The strength/depth of these impulses and degree of ridge flattening will vary, which in turn will dictate any precip chances as well as temp fluctuations. Slightly cooler night tonight with lows mainly in the 60s and upper 50s. Upper ridge will nose back into the area for Sat, with dry weather expected.
The upper low over Mississippi has our winds from the N/NE above freezing level, which is still very low for this time of the year just above 14kft. We did and still do have a couple of showers over our far Eastern tier and they are moving Southward around the low.
1110 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 A combination of outflow from storms across NW SD and a cold front has produced gusty northwest winds across portions of the area this morning.
Some improvement is possible, especially across Northern Harney, Malheur and Baker Counties, with passage of a weak cold front on Saturday. A weak cold front on Saturday could improve conditions briefly for Southeast Oregon but overall the upper level flow remains unchanged.
The upper low across the south will begin to lift northeast to the Ohio Valley tomorrow.
1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 (Today through Saturday) Moderate to strong northerly flow will continue for a few more days, with gradient of upper high over intermountain region and upper trough/upper low across the lower and mid-MS valley region. Before the mentioned upper low gets kicked northeast over the weekend, the northerly flow will allow a weak s/wv trough to progress out of the central plains and over Oklahoma/northern Texas late today through early Saturday.
A weak short wave trough will move across South Dakota helping to trigger some storms to the north of our region. This high will keep conditions dry and warm as warm air advection from the southwest US pushes into the central and northern Plains. Persistent upper level flow over northern California across the Rockies will result in smoke continuing to be pushed into the High Plains on Saturday.
1035 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into Saturday.
Our region is in a deformation zone on the northeast side of a broad upper low roughly centered over northern MS. Given the upper low slowly drifting closer our way, we could see isolated to scattered showers form at any point during the night. Saturday, the upper low will get into central Kentucky, but if you look south for the weather occurring today, we could expect widespread rainfall, but not with the higher amounts we'd see today.
Our trof with tropical origins continues to lift northward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. Thunderstorm activity associated with this trof so far today has been confined to locations near the TN border. However, have maintained slight to chance POPs overnight over much of western KY, which will be closer to the trof axis. On Saturday, convection will blossom again as the trof moves north through the Lower Ohio Valley.
Upper trough axis is aligned over western TN this afternoon. On Saturday, the intensity of the upper low weakens as it opens up a bit.
910 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 (Issued 908 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020) Thunderstorms are rolling across northern WI this evening and there are a few thunderstorms in west central WI that are developing with the nose of the low level jet.
/issued 341 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ Closed upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley slowly opening up and getting "squeezed" north as the western Atlantic ridge builds back to the west through the forecast period.
Although relatively slightly cooler temperatures where observed this afternoon across the region, the mercury reached the low 90s across most of the region. However, temperatures will climb once again to near 100s as an upper level ridge continues across the region.
Upper troughing will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley through this period.
GOES-16 GeoColor RGB highlights the large area across the western CONUS engulfed by wildfire smoke from California advecting along the north side of the upper level ridge. Height increases continue across the region today and Saturday as warmer temperatures and drier weather settles in. An outside chance for showers are possible across the Nebraska Panhandle and extreme southeastern Wyoming associated with increased convergence from a lee side trough.
548 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Broad low pressure is aligned from the central Gulf Coast up through the southern Appalachians, with weak high pressure located across the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is positioned near the lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for deeper southerly flow to the east. Temperatures range from the low 70s west of I-75, to the mid and upper 70s east. The upper level low will gradually pull northeast towards the Ohio Valley through Saturday night, dampening with time. Short wave energy will continue to swing out and around the low center, continuing the threat of some showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky through the short term. Most model guidance also suggests some stratiform build down overnight, with lower visibilities likely on the ridges, where this does occur.
646 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Temperatures continue to rise into the lower 90s this afternoon, once again challenging forecast highs. Any multicellular development should track along the edge of the +10C 700 mb isothermal, moving into western Minnesota and along the Buffalo Ridge late in the evening.
752 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into Saturday.
Atlantic high pressure will setup across northern Florida this weekend, as Tropical Depression 14 lifts northwest through the Yucatan Channel into the western Gulf of Mexico.
Only an isolated cell left over the ridges of Westmoreland county, as the rest of the activity has dissipated. Upper troughing will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley through this period.
/issued 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ The 22/00z TAF period begins with a lingering trough centered over MS state driving NE to SSW flow across all terminals and late afternoon VCTS near KELD. This trough will weaken, esp.
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The 22/00z TAF period begins with a lingering trough centered over MS state driving NE to SSW flow across all terminals and late afternoon VCTS near KELD. This trough will weaken, esp. The upper low over Mississippi has our winds from the N/NE above freezing level, which is still very low for this time of the year just above 14kft. We did and still do have a couple of showers over our far Eastern tier and they are moving Southward around the low.
Upper low continues to spin over the region late this evening, and moisture remains deep. While a weak SFC boundary remains well south, there is an H85 boundary over the mid-state, and along with this upper low, will provide sufficient vertical motion to keep showers and isolated storms going most of the night. An upper low is circulating to our south, with widespread showers and a few storms occurring across Middle Tennessee as a result.
The Atlc ridge will extend a larger reach over the peninsula beginning Sat, with a reduction in PoP overall when compared to previous days. Max temps will reach the low 90s over the north interior and near 90 along the coast.
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Lower tropospheric blocking ridge will remain in place over the southern 2/3rds of cwa through Saturday. Axis of midlevel moisture is in place to the north of the ridge in a differential stretching deformation axis through the Saginaw Bay region. The thunderstorm activity has since weakened as it worked off of the higher terrain. Moisture and geopotential height progs support a firm ridge right up to Saginaw Bay tomorrow. The relatively weak sfc gradient should therefore allow a respectable degree of radiational cooling tonight, supporting overnight mins in the low 60s (mid/upper 60s in urban Detroit).
An upper level low centered over the Tennessee Valley will slowly lift north into our region tonight.
227 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The arrival of a vigorous cold front this afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds to the Inland Northwest as well as rain to the Washington Cascades.
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Tonight the Arklatex region still sits between a ridge to the west and upper level trough to our east over Mississippi. As the trough to our east weakens, low-level moisture will begin its return across our southern zones, esp. /issued 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ The 22/00z TAF period begins with a lingering trough centered over MS state driving NE to SSW flow across all terminals and late afternoon VCTS near KELD. This trough will weaken, esp.
611 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 The extended dry period will continue through the weekend (and beyond) as the westerlies remain along the Canadian border leaving the forecast area in the downstream shield of the upper ridge over the western U. The upper ridge will however flatten a bit as it shifts eastward into the Plains. An important weakness in the ridge though is expected to form from Missouri southward potentially offering an alley for the remnants of the tropical systems to venture northward.
The fly in the ointment, is the stratus that is building in from the northeast associated with the upper low. An upper level low is situated over MS this afternoon. Overnight the upper low will track into Middle TN with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing mainly along the TN River in West TN. The upper low will weaken over Middle TN and maybe inch a little east. Temps will range from the lower 80s east to upper 80s across parts of eastern AR.
Nearly stationary mid level trof extending from MS/AL northeast through the TN/OH River Valley region looks to bring a repeat of yesterday, with scattered thunderstorms expected to form during the heat of the day in wrn KY/sw IN/far se IL, east of the trof axis.
Lingering showers continue this evening in the wake of a cold front that continues to slide to the east.
An upper level low off to the south of Indiana was bringing clouds into the portions of the southeast forecast area early this morning. The upper low will drift northeast today. The track of the low is farther east than earlier thought. PoPs will be this afternoon when instability builds, with the highest PoPs in the mid to late afternoon hours. Skies across the southeast forecast area will average out partly cloudy thanks to the upper low, with mostly sunny conditions northwest.
Weak low pressure is projected to dig up the Ohio and shunt that weak boundary northward today. Expect an increase in humidity for areas south of I 80 and the development of scattered convection given lessening convective inhibition under the troughing with afternoon temperature a few degrees above the calculated-normals. Upper troughing will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley through Sunday with scattered, mainly diurnally-supported showers and thunderstorms are expected again.
GOES-16 GeoColor RGB highlights the large area across the western CONUS engulfed by wildfire smoke from California advecting along the north side of the upper level ridge. Height increases continue across the region today and Saturday as warmer temperatures and drier weather settles in. An outside chance for showers are possible across the Nebraska Panhandle and extreme southeastern Wyoming associated with increased convergence from a lee side trough. Went on the cooler side of models for Saturday and Sunday afternoon due to the potential hazy skies, but forecast temperatures remain well above normal in the mid-90s across the NE Panhandle and Wyoming High Plains.
These reductions to both visibility and air quality will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains anchored to the Four Corners region. A weak cold front tonight will cool temperatures across eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho on Saturday, with warming expecting to return for Sunday.
Upper low continues to spin over the region late this evening, and moisture remains deep. While a weak SFC boundary remains well south, there is an H85 boundary over the mid-state, and along with this upper low, will provide sufficient vertical motion to keep showers and isolated storms going most of the night.
124 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move up the Ohio River Valley on Sunday.
341 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Deep layer stability held firm within a gradually increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident above average thermal profile will inch higher today under increasing thickness readings, but with the lack of meaningful warm air advection given weak gradient flow placing a ceiling on this warmer trend. Southeast Michigan will continue to reside within the outer expanse of a predominant large scale upper ridge anchored across much of the southern conus.
246 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 A weak ridge of high pressure was situated across eastern Kansas tonight with light winds and clear conditions. This lead to some decent radiational cooling with predawn temperatures below normal with values in the low to mid 60 for most areas.
A broad surface and upper-level trough across deep east Texas into central Louisiana could generate isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across areas south of Interstate 20. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s areawide. A similar pattern expected again on Sunday characterized by high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, light northeast winds, and mainly dry conditions prevailing.
This may be due to a lack moisture in the low to mid levels in our CWA.
1113 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020 (Issued 1113 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020) A few thunderstorms in west central WI that are developing with the nose of the low level jet. Despite the low level dry air and nil instability over southern WI, the overall flow is maintaining an eastward trajectory.
/issued 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/ Tonight the Arklatex region still sits between a ridge to the west and upper level trough to our east over Mississippi. As the trough to our east weakens, low-level moisture will begin its return across our southern zones, esp.
1035 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Short term weather forecast will be dominated by the ridge to the south and the continued influx of smoke from the fires in California. The H5 ridge remains anchored on the UT/AZ border, and will wobble only slightly through the next 36 hours. Models are picking up on a weak vort trying to wrap through the state during the day tomorrow trying to spark a few showers for the highest elevations of the Wind and Absarokas, but the smoky atmosphere is strongly stabilizing the atmosphere, keeping convection to a minimum.
The confluence zone on the south-side of the upper low continues to pump in moisture from the southwest. The highest coverage at this time will be in the north and west as the best lift remains in this area closest to the low, However, growing confidence for the additional banding of rain and storms in the southeast accompanied with the confluent zone in place. As we move into Sunday, the low itself will remain fairly close through the afternoon, before finally lifting off to the northeast close to sunset.
With mainly sunny skies and south winds highs should reach into the low to mid 90s. Otherwise the lows tonight should fall back into the middle to upper 60s.
A weak short wave trough will move across South Dakota helping to trigger some storms to the north of our region. This high will keep conditions dry and warm as warm air advection from the southwest US pushes into the central and northern Plains. Persistent upper level flow over northern California across the Rockies will result in smoke continuing to be pushed into the High Plains on Saturday. High pressure will continue through Sunday with a dry forecast expected.
Weak low pressure is projected to dig up the Ohio and shunt that frontal boundary northward today. Upper troughing will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley through Sunday with scattered, mainly diurnally-supported showers and thunderstorms are expected again.