Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure extending westward toward the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak upper low off the SE coast currently firing a few TSTMs, may send outflow and marine showers our way, and will monitor progress in case an MWS is needed for waterspouts, but land impacts appear low this morning and this feature offshore is expected to remain offshore, a drift NE. Similar regime Thursday except we may see more convective intrusion onto the coast in the morning as the weak upper low offshore lifts a little closer, so a rainy start possible for the coast or Cape Fear region early Thursday, then new diurnal convection in afternoon.
1024 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure continues to ridge across central Florida producing light winds this morning.
/issued 309 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ Generally warmer conditions with less convective chances will dominate today. This will be due to heights increasing today with an upper level ridge expanding over the southwestern CONUS. Slightly warmer temperatures today will result in a deeply mixed atmosphere. Although temperatures will be warmer today with increasing thicknesses temperatures look to come up short on the caprock of reaching 105F. We have went with the highest guidance numbers for today which have temperatures below criteria.
Strong high pressure will rebuild over the region later this weekend and into the weekend. However, high pressure strengthens for more dry and hot weather by the weekend.
Next cold front moving into the PACNW and extends form a low over southern Alberta.
Mean layer ridging centered to the east of Bermuda has shifted to the west over the past 24 hours.
648 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region as an area of low pressure moves through the SW corner of the state. Area of greatest concern is the southwest part of the CWA where the activity is being fueled by am approaching mid level trough that is running into a plume of 2 inch plus PWAT values. Otherwise upper level high pressure will continue to build over west Texas placing the CWA in a predominant northwest flow aloft.
638 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 (Today and tonight) Currently, storms are moving through western Kansas and developing southward along the low level jet into eastern parts of the panhandles. Some of these showers and storms may make it just across the border into western Oklahoma where they will quickly lose the support of the low level jet. With a building ridge and an abundance of moisture in the area, heat indices of 103-108 degrees Fahrenheit will be widespread this afternoon.
715 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Today starts a period of dry weather with large ridge of Canadian high pressure ridging into our area.
1033 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Aviation section updated A front will remain quasi-stationary over the Ohio Valley or southern Indiana through this weekend as an upper low opens up and drifts across the Ohio Valley.
644 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A cold front will gradually slide offshore today. Slightly cooler and drier air follows the front for the remainder of the work week. High pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will allow for relatively dry and seasonable temperatures over the weekend. A cold front is currently moving across the forecast area roughly from west to east. As a result, expect a dry day today with temperatures near where they were yesterday if not a few degrees cooler. High pressure to our north makes its influence felt across New England in the wake of the cold front.
Though proximity of cold core trough will lend toward better instability today, relative warmth remaining aloft only allowing skinny-type CAPE with most unstable values running near 1500 J/kg during max heating. PWs at or above 2" will promote locally heavy rainfall, especially over northwest sections in the best ascent near the mid level trough, but 1-hr FFG values well above 3" suggests that those areas can take some rain before it becomes a problem.
1002 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure extending westward toward the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak upper low off the SE coast currently firing a few TSTMs, may send outflow and marine showers our way, and will monitor progress in case an MWS is needed for waterspouts, but land impacts appear low this morning and this feature offshore is expected to remain offshore, a drift NE. Similar regime Thursday except we may see more convective intrusion onto the coast in the morning as the weak upper low offshore lifts a little closer, so a rainy start possible for the coast or Cape Fear region early Thursday, then new diurnal convection in afternoon.
Another hot and humid day is in store across the region as high pressure remains in control. Thursday looks to be repeat of today with temps in the low 90s to near 100 and heat indices reaching the 105-109 range.
The stronger jet stream winds are across the nrn Plains associated with an upper low across wrn Canada and across Colorado and Kansas associated with a subtropical ridge centered over the desert Southwest. Some of the guidance like the MET suggested highs in the lower 80s to around 90 Thursday. This might verify if a full blown upper low were to form and drift through swrn and ncntl Nebraska producing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The upper level ridge across New Mexico this morning will retrograde west toward Srn CA and an upper level low across Canada will drop south.
649 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper level low pressure system will meander near the area bringing off and on shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through the weekend. There remains some model uncertainty as to how exactly to handle the mid and upper level energy/trough/weak low moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
This will result in heat indices in the low to upper 90s.
330 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with warm front extending east-southeast through western ND to eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across western Canada, high pressure over the desert southwest, and near zonal flow over the northern and central Plains. Thursday could be a tad cooler in most areas as thermal ridge starts to shift east of the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
we expect to see pre-frontal warming over our region as a broad upper level trough moves into the northern Rockies. The upper trough deepens over the region Thursday with jet stream dynamics overhead.
935 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler today behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Dry air will filter into NY behind a cold front moving through PA. The period will be dry and seasonable as high pressure over SE Canada noses into the area and supresses moisture and afternoon convection to the south.
1018 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Today starts a period of dry weather with large ridge of Canadian high pressure ridging into our area.
Guidance consistently fizzles this out before reaching our area late this morning or early this afternoon, which makes sense given the highest moisture transport/instability remain anchored to our west today. Given the lower confidence surrounding this feature, trends will have to be monitored today.
/issued 318 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ Another humid morning across the Mid-South, but current 3 AM temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Temperatures today are expected to bounce back to near normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows tonight in the lower 70s.
The main weather story is a dry cold front will move through the region this afternoon and evening. Frost is a possibility in valleys such as Seeley Lake, Butte, Polebridge and the Northern Flathead Valley.
Temperatures this early morning are running several degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago, and will likely translate over similarly to low temperatures this morning. Upper level ridge over New Mexico will gradually build westward by the end of the week.
748 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler today behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Dry air will filter into NY behind a cold front moving through PA. The period will be dry and seasonable as high pressure over SE Canada noses into the area and supresses moisture and afternoon convection to the south.
419 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Wednesday should be mainly dry as high pressure slowly builds to the south and westerly flow at mid and high levels strengthens. Low temperatures should be in the high 50s to low 60s over the plains, while the mountain valleys should see low 40s overnight. Upper level ridge slowly expands westward Thu/Fri before building northward over the wrn U. Weak wly flow across srn CO on the nrn periphery of the ridge should keep conditions hot and dry Thu and Fri, though a couple high based t-storms may develop near the NM border Fri afternoon as mid level moisture drifts northward into the region.
/Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ Scattered convection has been maintained across SE OK and west central AR this morning within warm advection zone north of sfc warm front which resides across NE TX. The aforementioned sfc warm front appears likely to serve as a favorable baroclinic corridor for additional storm chances over the next several days as it reorients more NNW-SSE.
647 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler Wednesday behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Dry air will filter into NY behind a cold front moving through PA. The period will be dry and seasonable as high pressure over SE Canada noses into the area and supresses moisture and afternoon convection to the south.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the ridges and along a stationary boundary in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line this afternoon/early evening.
1025 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper level low pressure system will meander near the area bringing off and on shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through the weekend. Expecting filtered sunshine through a cirrus deck today as closed low pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley stays well to the southwest of the forecast area. There remains some model uncertainty as to how exactly to handle the mid and upper level energy/trough/weak low moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
445 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with warm front extending east-southeast through western ND to eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across western Canada, high pressure over the desert southwest, and near zonal flow over the northern and central Plains. Thursday could be a tad cooler in most areas as thermal ridge starts to shift east of the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Elsewhere, scattered high based cumulus clouds are expected to form again this afternoon over the higher terrain and along the Front Range. Upper level ridge will remain anchored over the desert southwest, centered over New Mexico on Thursday.
705 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Dry air in the low levels is reinforced by high pressure centered over Lower Mi today. Currently the flow is fairly zonal but will become anticyclonically curves with heights slowly building today as energetic jet over western Canada starts carving out the next trough. The active portion of the trough won't make it to MI until later this coming weekend.
A trough pushing through the Pacific Northwest allowed for some dry and stable air to surge into the region as the threat of convection will be minimal this afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail today with high pressure remaining in control. A weak seabreeze may develop this morning, but dry air in the low levels will likely keep any showers from developing. /issued 350 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb high pressure remains centered over West Texas and will build to around 595dam today into Thursday. High pressure extends across much of the state with very dry mid-level northeasterly winds flowing across Deep South Texas. Highs should range from the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Rio Grande Valley to around 100 near Falcon Lake.
Area of greatest concern is the southwest part of the CWA where the activity is being fueled by am approaching mid level trough that is running into a plume of 2 inch plus PWAT values. Otherwise upper level high pressure will continue to build over west Texas placing the CWA in a predominant northwest flow aloft.
Otherwise, rest of the going forecast is largely on track with highs cooler by 10-15 degree today compared to yesterday. Now, trough axis is pushing across the Cascades and into interior Northwest. Moist flow on E/SE sides of the trough are promoting relatively thick high to mid level clouds with KDLS recording 10kft ceilings.
Just to our east, east-southeasterly winds are present with dew points in the lower 70s, largely courtesy of convection that rolled through this area early Wednesday morning. Complicating matters, preferred consensus NBM values trended 2 to 6 degrees cooler between the 07z and 16z runs of this output, with stronger downward trends across the northern Panhandles.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Afternoon highs will generally range from the low to mid 90s.
A weak mid-level trough is currently located over Florida, situated between a high pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico and the Bermuda ridge axis. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s once again.
BRB (Today and tonight) Currently, storms are moving through western Kansas and developing southward along the low level jet into eastern parts of the panhandles. Some of these showers and storms may make it just across the border into western Oklahoma where they will quickly lose the support of the low level jet. With a building ridge and an abundance of moisture in the area, heat indices of 103-108 degrees Fahrenheit will be widespread this afternoon.
Otherwise, a forecast of persistence looks tough to beat with the H5 ridge centered to our west pretty firmly in control. 47 Mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate the local weather across SE Texas through the end of the work week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region as an area of low pressure moves through the SW corner of the state. Area of greatest concern is the southwest part of the CWA where the activity is being fueled by am approaching mid level trough that is running into a plume of 2 inch plus PWAT values. Otherwise upper level high pressure will continue to build over west Texas placing the CWA in a predominant northwest flow aloft.
242 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper level high pressure/ridge is centered over New Mexico and extends over Texas. Temperatures for tomorrow will be slightly hotter than today across portions of the area as the upper ridge becomes stronger.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ High pressure center has moved east and is over Lake Michigan this afternoon. The return flow has brought dew point temperatures back into the low to mid 70s for areas not cooled by the outflow boundary. Furthermore with the low level jet focused west of Iowa and the lack of any other kinematic support, a drier forecast is warranted.
313 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Short term forecast still revolves around potential convection erupting along a trough in western Nebraska/eastern Colorado this afternoon/evening, and possibly drifting east into our CWA late this evening into the early overnight. However, we will have sufficient MUCAPE for convection in the 2000+ J/kg realm and it appears that the theta-e ridge axis may lay over our southwestern CWA into the overnight. Another scenario, which is perhaps looking more likely is that we may have some convection fire over eastern KS and possibly extending northwest near the theta-e ridge axis into our CWA. The best chance of anything approaching flooding would likely be in our southeast CWA toward north central Kansas where storms will not likely veer too far from the nearly stationary 850 mb theta-e ridge axis.
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure was located across the area this afternoon as easterly winds continued to bring drier air into the area. WAA brings warmer more moist air to the area. Discussion: Upper level ridge moves into the area tonight. Underneath the ridge, a wave is expected to move across the area.
Pacific cold front was about to enter Baker County as of 8 AM PDT. Thursday will be sunny and cooler, and breezy again in the afternoon. Increasing clouds with sprinkles possible late this afternoon and overnight as a cold front moves through.
Thunderstorms that developed as an weak upper low moved into eastern Missouri this morning developed a sufficient cold pool for an outflow boundary to move westward. Attention then turns westward as a weak disturbance tops the western upper ridge.
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure will continue to persist across the Great Lakes region through Thursday.
Today, an upper-level closed system of low pressure is moving across Alberta. A cold front associated with this system is passing over the Northern Rockies today, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and an increase in cloud cover. As the upper- level system moves east on Thursday, flow shifts to northwest on the tails of the departing trough. An unstable atmosphere will allow upper level winds to mix down into the lower atmosphere, making for continued windy conditions on Thursday.
Temperatures on Thursday will be similar (possibly a degree or two warmer) to those observed this afternoon, with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s.
High pressure will push our heat to near record levels the Thursday through the weekend.
235 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows warm front extending from OK panhandle southeastward into north central TX with rather high dew points pooling to the north of the boundary. In the upper levels a compact wave can be seen moving slowly across southwest KS, and late tonight should see a strengthening low level jet interacting with warm front.
With the trough axis passing early, the shower chances will shift to the east, leaving dry air and gusty winds continuing for most of the state.
1109 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A cold front will gradually slide offshore today. Slightly cooler and drier air follows the front for the remainder of the work week. High pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will allow for relatively dry and seasonable temperatures over the weekend. A cold front is currently moving across the forecast area roughly from west to east. As a result, expect a dry day today with temperatures near where they were yesterday if not a few degrees cooler. High pressure to our north makes its influence felt across New England in the wake of the cold front.
This will mitigate concerns for heat stress with the possible exception of our southwest where the lowest pops and highest temperatures are expected.
346 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Persistence forecast in play today with the influence of high pressure and antecedent dry conditions (PW values between.
The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over Texas during this period. At the surface, high pressure in the Gulf will keep the low level flow from the south to southeast.
314 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Mean layer ridging is centered to the east of Bermuda and also over northern Mexico. A weakness in the ridging stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the southern Bahamas, somewhat apparent on water vapor imagery as weak cyclonic turning. 12-hr loops from MIMIC TPW highlight a low level ridge axis stretching west to near southern Florida. A moisture surge in the easterlies is sliding west through Andros along the south-side of the ridge. East to southeast winds average 8 to 12 knots across the Florida Keys, under mostly sunny skies, with temperatures in the lower 90s. When its summer in the Florida Keys, and a ridge axis stretches west across Florida, we look for upstream undulations in moisture and curvature along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge.
As a result, temperatures are running up to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. A weak upper level low pressure was analyzed on Water Vapor Imagery near the Missouri Bootheel with a open trough over much of the Mississippi Valley. /issued 318 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ Another humid morning across the Mid-South, but current 3 AM temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Temperatures today are expected to bounce back to near normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows tonight in the lower 70s.
HRRR- smoke plumes do bring this high-level smoke plume into portions of southeastern Nebraska this evening for a potential photogenic sunset opportunity if clouds can continue to clear.
122 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Today starts a period of dry weather with large ridge of Canadian high pressure ridging into our area.
226 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. DCAPE values support an isolated damaging wind threat at 600 to 900 J/kg with the highest values southwest. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. Mid-level trough will be to the west of the area Thursday with southwest flow continuing to bring moisture into the area.
Otherwise, rest of the going forecast is largely on track with highs cooler by 10-15 degree today compared to yesterday.
420 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A cold front will slowly move out of the Downeast region and offshore this evening. A secondary cold front will cross the region Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, the trough axis over southeast MO and south along the MS River valley will advance eastward into western TN and northern MS.
1204 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with warm front extending east-southeast through western ND to eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across western Canada, high pressure over the desert southwest, and near zonal flow over the northern and central Plains. Thursday could be a tad cooler in most areas as thermal ridge starts to shift east of the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
148 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper level low pressure system will meander near the area bringing off and on shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through the weekend. Expecting filtered sunshine through a cirrus deck today as closed low pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley stays well to the southwest of the forecast area. There remains some model uncertainty as to how exactly to handle the mid and upper level energy/trough/weak low moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
The combination of the compressional heating, day time heating, downslope winds and increasing heights from the amplifying ridge will help to increase high temperatures.
A cold front will then move through the area Sun, with a small chance of precip, though will not be mentioned at this time in the worded forecast. Beyond this, Sun night through Wed, dry weather is expected with temps becoming cooler.
However, models continue to show good mixing today ahead of a cold front that will move across the forecast area this evening. we expect to see pre-frontal warming today as a broad upper level trough moves into the northern Rockies. The upper trough deepens over the region Thursday with jet stream dynamics overhead.