Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall, high-res models have handled this poorly, thus, have kept slight chance PoPs through the evening (primarily along and south of I-40 and along the higher elevations). McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 72 84 72 91 / 80 60 70 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 72 83 71 88 / 80 70 80 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 71 83 70 88 / 80 80 80 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 69 80 69 84 / 80 70 80 40 50.
344 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A cold front dropping through wrn SD and ern WY this morning will move into Nebraska and be positioned along Interstate 80 this afternoon. Wind damage and perhaps dry lightning are the primary concerns with the high based convection forming west of the higher instability across scntl Nebraska. 2 inches, on the low side.
357 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A weak area of low pressure will move through the area tonight.
Cold front lays across western North Dakota. Ridge axis from upper high moves east through the day.
The surface front lifts further north into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday while mid level ridging persists to our southeast. A weakness looks to remain in the mid levels to our north and west, which will continue to support the higher chances for showers and some thunderstorms. Models continue to show the broad trough to our north retreating northward slightly as ridging strengthens across the Gulf coast. Upper level ridging becomes messy, with a weakness in the ridge left by mid week over the Deep South. Model guidance differs in just how strong this feature is, whether it closes off or remains a weak open trough.
405 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Quiet weather continues early this morning with Upper Michigan still under the influence of high pressure. Trended on the high side of model guidance for today's highs with this particular setup. Troughing will be over the area 00z tonight with the 500 mb trough axis moving through on Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Thu. 500 mb ridging moves into the northern plains 12z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Troughing moves in for Sun.
Northerly flow will support a slightly cooler day today (mainly across the north), but still above seasonal norms. LLJ will then develop tonight and support an increase in pos theta-e adv in the low levels ad the base of an eml, indicated well at H7 where theta-e pushes 335-340K.
As far as the prevailing pattern, high pressure remains entrenched across the region. The high starts to shift to the east early in the week, which may help to decrease storm coverage across the region. We will still have daily thunderstorm chances but with the shift in the center of the high we may start to see a more traditional monsoon pattern that has storms late morning through evening with less active overnight hours. Regardless of the position of the high, we will continue to have very wet antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall may cause more flooding.
This will form an effective warm front due to differential heating and WAA. Went ahead and added low POPs for this afternoon/evening ahead of the warm front, primarily across northern Oklahoma, where a few thunderstorms could develop. Today will be a transition day back to hot temperatures and with dewpoints in the low to mid 70's ahead of the front, it will be very muggy, also.
1025 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 19z surface analysis had weak low over western ND with trough into central NE. Along/ahead of trough, 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed with eroding cap. Behind trough, cap is gone with less than 1000J/kg MLCAPE as dry air continues to mix down/advect into the CWA per surface observations. High-based -TSRA possible just behind trough through early this evening, especially near the Black Hills.
1246 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Summary: A low pressure brings chances for showers and storms late tonight with a possibility for severe storms Sunday evening.
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours will form over the San Bernardino Mountains, the High Deserts and the Riverside County Mountains again today.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 73 86 72 91 / 80 60 80 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 71 83 71 89 / 80 70 90 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 71 83 70 88 / 80 70 90 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 69 80 68 84 / 90 70 90 40 60.
655 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A cold front dropping through wrn SD and ern WY this morning will move into Nebraska and be positioned along Interstate 80 this afternoon. Wind damage and perhaps dry lightning are the primary concerns with the high based convection forming west of the higher instability across scntl Nebraska. 2 inches, on the low side. The short term model blend was the basis for highs in the 90s to near 100 Monday which is very similar to the previous forecast, slightly cooler than the guidance blend, and almost identical to the 50th percentile of the NBM.
Lowest FFG is generally along the Upper Cumberland, with a few locations in our SW also on the lower end.
Northerly flow will support a slightly cooler day today (mainly across the north), but still above seasonal norms. LLJ will then develop tonight and support an increase in pos theta-e adv in the low levels ad the base of an eml, indicated well at H7 where theta-e pushes 335-340K. Upper ridge will then build back NE into the region Sunday night into Monday, with the hottest temps timing over the region Mon-Tue. The next upper trough and sfc reflection will move into the region Tues, with monsoon moisture spreading into the region aloft. The region will remain on the edge of the ridge the remainder of week, with semi-unsettled flow supporting slight chances for storms nearly each day.
1007 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A weak area of low pressure will move through the area tonight.
Highs today will be warmer in the 90s. Monday ridging aloft starts building into the region and pushes temperatures up over the remainder of the forecast. Highs Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
It will be hot again this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s along the coast and mid-90s inland.
/19/ (Monday Night through Sunday) Diurnal chances of precipitation will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend as ridging generally remains to our west. The best chances for diurnal convection will remain in eastern parishes before spreading out more by the end of the week as ridging shifts to the northeast. Troughing will undercut the ridge as it approaches the Great Plains by the weekend, allowing for some northerly flow aloft and maintaining a chance of precipitation through the end of the period.
For Sunday, the main front gets repositioned to the north a touch as the southerly flow over us, lifts it back as a warm front.
By tomorrow, the upper ridge will continue to slide west with more northerly flow aloft.
This is in response to a departing area of low pressure currently centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Surface analysis places an expansive ridge of high pressure over much of the North Atlantic, with the axis penetrating the Florida Space Coast. Skies are generally partly cloudy across the island chain, with temperatures in the lower 80s at most communities.
A mid to upper level inverted trough will continue to track westward into South TX/northern MX today. Given precipitation chances and mostly partly skies, temperatures will be a couple of degrees "cooler" than today.
540 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 (Today) Temperatures this hour (08Z) are resting in the low/mid 70s under a bank of low/mid high cloud cover. Daytime highs will be cooler, reaching the upper 80s by the afternoon.
As of 8z, an area of low pressure across eastern North Dakota an an associated cold front draped to its south across central South Dakota are moving east. This system and its precipitation will continue tracking east through the morning, with the cold front crossing the SD/MN border by the early afternoon. ) More comfortable conditions with cooler high temperatures across the northern CWA and lower dewpoints across central SD. High pressure will bring lesser winds Sunday night into Monday, as well as a bit of cooler air, at least for areas along and east of the James River Valley where high temperatures will be in the 80s.
Today Through Monday Night As of 3AM CDT, light showers meander across northeastern Arkansas ahead of a slowly lifting warm front. Across southern Arkansas, where rain chances will be less, high temperatures will manage to reach into the lower and middle 90's. On Monday, the upper level ridge begins to build back across the Four Corners region of the CONUS. The end of the short-term forecast period marks a transition or return back to the overall hot and dry conditions with upper level northwesterly flow presenting some scant chances at precipitation around the periphery of the ridge.
/issued 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): An analysis of the recently-much- discussed inverted mid-level trough suggests that the axis of this feature is roughly 300 miles east-southeast of Brownsville.
Upper-level ridging will continue building in over the region, with breezy northwest flow aloft. Precipitation will mainly be confined to the higher terrain, although a few showers may spill onto I-25, most likely over the Pikes Peak Region thanks to local terrain. Low levels will be drying out slightly, and warming air aloft under the building ridge will keep things mostly capped. Also with the warming temperatures aloft, highs today will be near or above seasonal norms, with high-70s to low-80s over the higher terrain and low-mid 90s over the plains.
Mostly clear skies this evening will then give way to increasing mid clouds toward Monday morning as a cold front approaches. Another pleasant summer day for Southeast Michigan, although noticeably warmer, with temperatures edging into the middle 80s and surface dewpoints reaching 60 degrees. Composite trough axis, falling out of hemispheric low amplitude trough, will pivot through Southeast Michigan Monday.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The predominant ridging across the southern plains will build and slide westward Sunday into Monday. Rain chances largely come to an end as monsoonal moisture is pushed westward with the ridge.
Ridging returns Monday and the heat along with it.
Subtropical ridge axis remains draped to our north along the northern tier of Florida and along the Gulf coast.
1035 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure will prevail this week. Temperatures are expected to peak above normal in the lower to mid 90s, warmest near/west of I-95. Dewpoints should mix out a bit into the mid to upper 60s, especially in GA and southwest portions of the Lowcountry but max heat indices should still reach the lower to mid 100s most locales. A mid-level ridge originating in the Atlantic will weaken across our area on Monday, as troughing to our north strengthens/amplifies.
444 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Pressure heights will continue to rise as the ridge gradually advances. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures up to the low to mid 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s across the foothills and mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s in the mountains. Expect moderate precipitation over the mountains and lighter precipitation with gustier winds across the lower elevations. The upper ridge is right over the CWA on Monday.
Surface Theta-E gradient indicates the front is north of the forecast area which will limit forcing with a broad upper ridge in place. While plenty of afternoon sun outside of the far northern forecast area will lead to highs in the low to mid 90s, dew points and breezy conditions may make it at least a bit more bearable. Lows will end up in the low and mid 70s. Upper ridge axis remains to our south on Monday with slightly lowering upper heights. Ensemble means show upper level ridging remaining strong over the Atlantic and over the west-central part of the country while some weak upper troughing settles over the southern Appalachians and TN Valley region through midweek.
605 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
That being Sunday, Sunday will be a brief respite, as this past day's cold front ushered in just enough cooler temperatures to allow highs to 'only' reach the low to mid 90s, and humidities to not drop too low in the afternoon. Monday that changes as the upper ridge axis continues to move east. With humidities overachieving and dropping lower than expected yesterday, it won't take much to see values drop into the lower teens to single digits on Monday.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s across western regions of the forecast area with mid to upper 80s further east where clouds will be slower to break. Storm chances are lower this afternoon with the surface boundary mostly washed out at this point and upper ridging building in, but some redevelopment will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas.
The expectation is that southeast flow should pull some tropical moisture from the low over the Gulf of Mexico into the area through the remaining of the afternoon and evening.
230 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms on Monday.
1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
Cloud cover has hindered temperatures from warming into the 80s so far, but as the low cloud deck dissipates temperatures are going to touch the upper 70s to low 80s. Monday, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 90s across the southwestern part of the state as an upper level ridge displaces the low-level thermal ridge eastward into eastern Montana.
239 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Key Points: - Heat begins to build in today with clearing skies and temperatures reaching the lower 90s across the area. Northwesterly flow has continued to remain in place over northeastern Kansas as a large upper-level ridge builds in from the western US. This afternoon's high temperatures should top out in the lower 90s with the humidity making it feel close to 100 degrees. By Monday, the upper ridge will continue to slide to the east and increase temperatures into the mid 90s with heat index values reaching upwards of 105-106 degrees in the afternoon.
The HeatRisk values are still in the high category, so the Heat Advisory still looks in good shape for tomorrow across the area.
104 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure will prevail this week. Temperatures are expected to peak above normal in the lower to mid 90s, warmest near/west of I-95. Dewpoints should mix out a bit into the mid to upper 60s, especially in GA and southwest portions of the Lowcountry but max heat indices should still reach the lower to mid 100s most locales. A mid-level ridge originating in the Atlantic will weaken across our area on Monday, as troughing to our north strengthens/amplifies.
However, the trend will be toward lower coverage and lighter amounts than previous days as ridging aloft gradually builds eastward.
Earlier this morning we extended the Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevation zones through Monday evening. We have now also extended the Heat Advisory for the higher elevations sites to also end Monday evening. Latest guidance has temps there only about a degree cooler (less hot) Monday compared to today. These appear to be related to a weak short wave trough moving northeast around the west side of the upper level ridge located to our south. With weak flow aloft due to the upper level ridge, slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible.
(This afternoon through Monday night) With the ridge over the Mississippi Valley officially established across all of W TX and SE NM, the forecast area will partake in the doldrums of summer for the next 48+ hrs. A few showers/storms are possible across northern Lea county tomorrow thanks to narrow instability axis across E NM down into the high plains of the county, but expecting little rainfall given the overly dry boundary layer, so mainly a gusty wind and light/moderate rain chance.
There is an inverted mid/upper level trough pushing westward across the western Gulf this afternoon. The resulting shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the trough has remained offshore today. As the trough passes south of our region tonight, higher PWAT values will push northward in the trough's wake. Considering the more moist profile that will occur behind the aforementioned trough, we think the CAMs are likely on to something. More clouds and the presence of showers / storms are expected to keep temps a little cooler tomorrow. But do not let the word "cooler" fool you! It will still be quite hot.
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Discussion/Marine --Showers possible tonight, Monday-- Currently, a cold front extends south from a low over northwest Minnesota.
(Tonight through Monday night) Subtropical Ridge axis will extend from east of Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to the Four Corners region. An inverted trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move onshore the Texas/northeastern Mexico coast tonight and over northeastern Mexico on Monday. This will be associated with a brief surge of deeper moisture and forcing from the trough, the seabreeze, and right entrance region of a weak upper level jet.
320 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure/ridging is moving out of the Upper Great Lakes region today, opening the door for a low pressure disturbance to move on in from the west. Troughing will be over the area 00z tonight with the 500 mb trough axis moving through on Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Thu. 500 mb ridging moves into the northern plains 12z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Troughing moves in for Sun. Winds of generally 20 knots or less are expected to continue across Lake Superior until Monday afternoon behind a cold front, when northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected over the eastern half of the lake.
High pressure remains centered to the east of the region, with dry air in place. Lows Tonight in the lower to middle 70s expected.
Cooler the next few days with a gradual warming trend into the middle part of the week. An upper level closed low centered around 40 degrees N, 130 degrees W, remains in this position through early this week before retrograding to the west mid to late week. High pressure remains over the Four Corners region with both of these features pushing deep monsoonal moisture into Northern California.
Most of the region saw highs in the low to middle 80s although near and south Of Tupelo it did reach 89-90 degrees. A relatively weak 591dm ridge will build in over the Midsouth by the middle of the work week.
/SVH 18Z TAFs: High pressure remains over the region through Monday promoting VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.
Winds ahead of the low have already turned westerly, while behind it they are from the northwest.
The heat is the bigger story today as hot temperatures are expected with upper 90s to around 100 expected across the Magic Valley and Snake Plain with low to mid 90s likely across the high elevation valleys.
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure exiting off of the eastern seaboard is allowing increasing moisture to lift across the region through this evening.
High pressure will remain in control and any actual flow in the upper levels will remain confined over the northern part of the US.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 86 72 91 72 / 60 80 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 71 89 71 / 70 90 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 83 70 88 71 / 70 90 30 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 80 68 84 68 / 70 90 40 60 20.
High pressure is slated to build in briefly overnight before shifting southeast through the day Monday. Upper ridging and southeast breezes will push temperatures into the 90s west river on Monday. Across the east, expect cooler conditions on the edges of the ridge with less mixing.
The trough will move through the Upper Great Lakes tonight so that by tomorrow morning the associated frontal boundary should be near the Iowa/Missouri border.
(This evening through Monday) Expect a flat upper level high pressure ridge to remain over the area through Monday resulting in hot and dry conditions.
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A cold front dropping through wrn SD and ern WY this morning will move into Nebraska and be positioned along Interstate 80 this afternoon. Wind damage and perhaps dry lightning are the primary concerns with the high based convection forming west of the higher instability across scntl Nebraska. 2 inches, on the low side. The short term model blend was the basis for highs in the 90s to near 100 Monday which is very similar to the previous forecast, slightly cooler than the guidance blend, and almost identical to the 50th percentile of the NBM.
WV satellite reveals an upper high centered over SE NM with west- northwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. This should allow the upward trend in temperatures to continue and may also eliminate instability altogether as warmer temperatures aloft trend our skinny CAPE profiles to capped profiles.
1022 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Satellite is showing cumulus development taking place over the higher terrain with good heating and dewpoints in the mid 40s over the mountains and 50s on the plains. Pressure heights will continue to rise as the ridge gradually advances. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures up to the low to mid 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s across the foothills and mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s in the mountains. Expect moderate precipitation over the mountains and lighter precipitation with gustier winds across the lower elevations. The upper ridge is right over the CWA on Monday.
An upper level high will spin above the western United States during the short term forecast with weak flow above western Kansas. The upper level high will continue to spin over the western United States through mid week then slide eastward over the Plains as we head into the late part of the week.
It has also been a little on the breezy side with winds here in the lower keys near 15 mph while in the Middle and Upper Keys it has been more so 10 to 15 mph. Despite the higher than usual wind speeds, the temperatures have continued to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Keys. A sharp, subtropical ridge axis remains situated across northern Florida and the entire north Gulf coast. This is because a potent mid and upper level trough is beginning to move across the Great Lakes Region. This feature will impinge and shove the subtropical ridge southward through midweek. As the subtropical ridge slides south, locally our winds will come down.
Warm front has lifted well north of the forecast area, into NC with some drier air pushing into the CSRA and western Midlands, although there remains a robust moisture gradient with PWATs in the southwest around 1. Broad upper ridging remains in place across the area which will help to limit widespread convection today, although mlCAPE remains a bit higher in the eastern forecast area where showers and an isolated storm will continue to develop over the next couple hours. Tonight, a low level jet will limit cooling with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Deeper moisture will be across the northern cwa closer to the upper trough axis and surface front.
1049 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center reorganizing over central NM. Sct-nmrs showers and tstms developing over the higher terrain by 19Z to move in general to the ne and east.
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected with the exception of a slight weakening of the upper high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the southeastern states on Monday as the base of a broad upper trough sags southward over the Tennessee River region.