Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1133 AM MDT Thu May 27 2021 Latest WV imagery this morning has building region of high pressure into the forecast area as a dry stationary front lies along a line from Limon, CO northwest into MT. Fairly quiet weather in store today under high pressure as low cloud deck continues across much of the NE Panhandle this morning. Highs today from the low 60s to low 70s for many. Lows tonight from the middle 30s into the low 40s. Upper level low and adjoining cold front will begin to move across the region late Friday with stationary front ahead of the system. An unsettled weekend expected across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle as an upper low tracks across southern Alberta Canada. dragging a cold front through Wyoming.
301 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 Convection has blossomed today in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over Iowa this afternoon. Low pressure is forecast to traverse Indiana and Ohio on Friday, with a cold front sweeping across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Additional convection appears likely over the eastern half of the forecast area, and the approaching upper level trough will provide stronger winds aloft. Temps should hover in the 70s until cooler air begins invading Friday evening behind fropa. By Friday evening, a cold front should be pushing east of the region.
Another trough develops in the flow to our west over the weekend.
255 PM MDT Thu May 27 2021 Ridge axis has moved over the ID/WY border early this afternoon with upper level trough from yesterday now over north-central South Dakota. The trough continues bringing moister NW flow to NE WY, though clouds are diminishing. Breezy west flow with gusts 20-25 mph have developed this afternoon over portions of southern and central WY, and should decrease this evening and overnight as the ridge axis moves eastward.
337 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 A Freeze Warning for sub-freezing low temperatures tonight into Friday morning highlights the short term forecast period. To the east under high surface pressure and ridging aloft, surface temperatures should be colder, with good potential for sub- freezing lows across central and portions of western North Dakota. On Friday, the next approaching trough and associated surface pressure falls will create breezy southerly winds across the region.
A note on the lower Trinity - river forecasts for Liberty have risen to major and is now expected to cutoff neighborhoods in the flood prone areas.
First being a large upper low centered off the Pacific NW. At the surface, low pressure was situated over central IA with attendant cold front extending through eastern NE to southwest KS.
Winds are a bit higher with the cold front expected tomorrow, and could end up being borderline for Lake Wind criteria, and is worth another look in subsequent forecast cycles. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Lingering showers and cloud cover will exit to the southeast this morning as upper ridging builds over the region for today. Warmer temperatures will arrive on Friday ahead of the next system, with a chance for showers and isolated thunder during the afternoon and evening hours. Ensembles point to a strong upper ridge pattern developing over the western U. Timing and placement will have low predictability at longer time scales, but confidence is increasing that the weekend and week ahead will be trending toward the warmer side. A cold front will push through the region tomorrow, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, mostly to areas east of Glasgow.
401 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 A low pressure system will approach tonight and move through on Friday.
1222 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Summary: A large system brushes the southern portion of the forecast area today followed by widespread freezing conditions tonight. With such a cold day in store, it won't take much for temperatures to drop below freezing tonight as high pressure builds. There is some chance that a few lingering clouds will be around, but overall feel quite confident that the area will see widespread freezing temperatures. There will be a sharp cutoff with the precipitation gradient on the northern edge of the low pressure that passes today with only a sliver of QPF ending up in our forecast area.
The flooding risk will be of concern this afternoon and evening as well as storms train over the same areas and more storms develop and move through with the cold front currently moving into northwest Oklahoma. Past tonight, the front will largely push south of the forecast area by Friday morning ushering in some cooler and drier conditions for the holiday weekend.
Vertical wind profiles continue to support organized storms as winds veer from south to southwest through the lowest 10000 feet. After a warm, somewhat muggy day with highs in the low to mid 80s, lows will drop into the lower 60s to around 70 tonight, with lower humidity levels.
257 PM MDT Thu May 27 2021 Skies have cleared for most of the area, but the lower clouds have been hanging around in southeast Montana with the departing low pressure system. Given the temperatures will be nearing freezing in those areas could see some frost development. This will drag a cold front across the area late in the morning and through the afternoon.
The current forecast has low temperatures in the low to mid 40s. This area will also have the warmest temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.
After the QLCS clears the southeastern CWA around 5-6PM, attention will then turn to the actual synoptic cold front upstream. Behind the cold front, anomalously cool air is forecast to infiltrate the bi-state area. While these readings would break record high maximum temperatures for the date, due to much warmer temperatures at 12AM CST (1AM CDT), no records will be broken for 05/28.
1136 AM MDT Thu May 27 2021 The mid-level trough which brushed the northern portion of the forecast area area overnight will be supplanted by a ridge of high pressure building ahead of the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Later, daytime warming will result in cumulus over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Expect less wind under the ridge with highs today peaking at, or above seasonal norms. The ridge axis is driven east of the Divide late tonight as the Pacific Northwest trough pushes farther inland, crossing over the northern Rockies during the afternoon.
Showers linger into Friday as a much cooler airmass settles into the region.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Upper low diving sewd across the High Plains this evening will drive a cold front sewd along with multiple impulses during the overnight hours. Slightly cooler temps are fcst for Friday in the wake of the cold front.
1101 AM PDT Thu May 27 2021 A cold front will produce scattered showers and gusty southwest winds today.
A cold front will be moving toward the area tonight, and should arrive by late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be normal or perhaps even slightly below normal Friday and Friday night, as much cooler air is expected to spill into the area behind the departing cold front.
A cold front will be moving toward the area tonight, and should arrive by late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be normal or perhaps even slightly below normal Friday and Friday night, as much cooler air is expected to spill into the area behind the departing cold front. A cold front will be exiting southeast out of the forecast area at the start of the period, and showers or thunderstorms will probably be in progress in association with it, especially in extreme eastern and southeastern KY. Much drier air will arrive in all but the lowest levels during Friday night, putting an end to most precip.
314 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from south central Iowa into northeast and south central Kansas then into western Oklahoma. Much cooler conditions will move in behind the cold front for Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday will be about 10 to 15 degree cooler than today, and about 10 degrees cooler than normal with values in the middle 60s to middle 70s. Lows Friday night will 15 to 20 degrees cooler than tonight, with readings in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
332 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Weak ridging will allow for quiet weather to continue through Friday. Cooler air will also continue to push into the region keeping surface temperatures cooler than the last few days. High temperatures will only rise into the 60s tomorrow with a few isolated locations possibly rising into the low 70s. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be quite chilly ranging from the low 30s across the Pine Ridge to the low 40s in southwest Nebraska.
1130 AM MDT Thu May 27 2021 As an upper-level ridge builds into the region. This ridge will also keep dry and tranquil weather around through the day tomorrow before the ridge begins to break down early Friday morning. A digging trough will dive into the region bringing a cold front with it.
The models differ somewhat on arrival of late night showers and a few thunderstorms in advance of a deepening upper trough. The cold front and convection should exit our southeast counties between 01-03Z.
124 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under building high pressure. Rain returns Friday and Friday night with crossing low pressure. The lack of cloud cover but still a slightly cooler air mass in place will allow for some near average highs today but cooler than normal further north. The warm front will begin to move into the area by about 09Z with showers developing likely before 12Z. As the warm front ahead of the low continues to track into the area, the low appears to be a bit further north than previous runs.
A surface cold front is just west of the Cascade Range and will be sweeping across the forecast area today. A ridge will begin building offshore and skies will be mostly clear with much lighter afternoon winds of 10 to 20 mph in the Columbia Basin.
A surface cold front is just west of the Cascade Range and will be sweeping across the forecast area today. Aviation concerns for the next 24 hours will be the gusty winds associated with a cold frontal passage. A ridge will begin building offshore and skies will be mostly clear with much lighter afternoon winds of 10 to 20 mph in the Columbia Basin.
205 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today following the passage of a front. Widespread rain and much cooler weather is expected for Friday as a low pressure system passes to the south.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow pattern across the Midwest this afternoon with a mid level trough/circulation over the North/South Dakota border, deeper closed low over NE Quebec and confluent flow in between the two across the western Great Lakes. Further north, strong deformation axis and area of enhanced precip extends across Wisconsin westward to the vicinity of the upper low. But given warmer air aloft just nosing into northern Lower Michigan and above freezing sfc temps, believe precip will be mostly rain, although there could be some wet flakes mixed in across the higher terrain later on.
Widespread rain and cool weather is expected for Friday and Friday night as a low pressure system passes to the south.
With slight building of the 850mb thermal ridge east into our area, numerical guidance looks a little to low with max temperatures today.
In the post frontal airmass today, temperatures have remained cool in the 60s/low 70s although it has felt even cooler with northwest wind gusts around 30 mph. Cloud cover has diminished to some degree, but will fill back in especially across our northern zones as the aforementioned upper trough slides south just east of the Missouri River.
Warmer by 10 to 15 degrees over yesterday as a short wave ridge comes in from the west. Sunny in Idaho with increasing high clouds in Oregon as the next Pacific cold front approaches. Friday will be sunny, breezy, and cooler.
249 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Convection continues to develop across Missouri ahead of a cold front that stretches across Northern Missouri into Eastern Kansas. The remnants will work the atmosphere over for Friday as the cold front moves into the region except for portions of Northeast Mississippi. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will begin to settle over the Ohio Valley by Friday Night and will remain in place throughout the holiday weekend. Temperatures may begin warming by late in the weekend into Memorial Day as upper ridging begins to occur over the area.
252 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 The Florida Keys are currently on the southwestern periphery of a high pressure centered near Bermuda.
The cold front is through all three terminals, so the expectation is thunderstorms will not threaten the sites. /Issued 337 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021/ An upper level short wave trough moving east across the northern High Plains will help to shove a cold front through the Panhandles today. This cold front should be near a Canadian to Amarillo line by mid afternoon. The Panhandles will be well behind the cold front on Friday.
In addition, some cu development is noted over the lower Trans Pecos region and some of this activity could eventually make it into Val Verde county.
344 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today following the passage of a front. Widespread rain and much cooler weather is expected for Friday as a low pressure system passes to the south.
Today and tonight, a 500 mb ridge axis will be along the CO/UT border with a drier northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. The fire danger will be elevated over the high mountains valleys of Grand, Jackson and Summit counties this afternoon, where rh values will drop below 15 percent. Upper ridging with weak flow aloft starts out on Friday for the forecast area. Moisture is lacking and this is mid level stability with warming aloft from the ridging. Pops are limited to the high county, and then pretty low chances.
315 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 An upper level low pressure currently over the region will continue pushing eastward tonight, with showers generally ending from west to east. The biggest question in the short term is whether or not clouds clear off enough to allow temperatures to drop below freezing.
A cold front will move through the state from NW to SE bringing with it SHRA and TSRA. Today Through Friday Night Warm and humid conds were noted acrs the FA this mrng, with predawn temps ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Rain chances dcrs fm the NW later Fri and Fri night as much cooler and drier air advects into AR.
204 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 A cold front will continue to surge southward this afternoon and move south of the KS/OK border by early evening.
Friday, easterly upslope flow will drive the dryline into far west Texas, w/initiation farther west over the higher terrain than today. A cold front will approach from the north, although the NAM has slowed it somewhat from previous runs. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates and dcapes also in excess of 2500 J/kg on the higher terrain will again favor big hail and damaging winds for much of the area.
324 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Latest surface analysis had the cold front extending from north of MCI to TOP southwest to near ICT at 20Z. For tonight expect the front to move south of the area as the mid level trough moves eastward across the Plains. Cooler temperatures will filter southward with lows falling to the 40s to low 50s.
(This evening through Friday) Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue into the evening across most of the area as a cold front moves into minimally- capped environment (per 18Z special upper air sounding). Currently, as storms form along the aforementioned cold front later this afternoon, there may be a brief window for some discrete storms.
223 PM MDT Thu May 27 2021 A subtle ridge over northern Utah shifting atop a shallow trough in central Arizona have created split flow aloft and majority of the CWA currently resides in between the two systems. Best chance for storms will concentrate over these ranges between 21-00Z this evening, as a sliver of energy from the lifting trough maximizes. The next Pacific NW trough pushes split flow east of the Divide overnight, leaving southwest veering to zonal flow aloft. Upper-level split flow will develop over the region this weekend with a strong wave moving across southern Canada and another weak trough dropping south across the Great Basin.
134 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 A weak cold front will spark a few showers and thunderstorms in northwest North Carolina this afternoon. By Friday afternoon, a more potent cold front will provide widespread showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and damp conditions are expected for this weekend, before things begin to warm up again and we dry out. A weak cold front is drifting southward across the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. However, it is not really going to provide a cooler air mass but rather drier air as noted with lower dewpoints in the model soundings. The cold front should stall later tonight and retreat northward as a warm front. A more potent cold front with a compact upper level trough will approach the Appalachian Mountains from the west by Friday afternoon, which should trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms.
- Much cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the holiday weekend and into the first few days of June. Discussion: The cold front is currently draped across northwest MO into northeastern KS and slowly making its way to the southeast. Towering cumulus and showers are beginning to develop along and ahead of this cold front, with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop by around 3 to 4 pm and move to the southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. Cloud cover and cold air advection behind the cold front will lead to a chilly Friday, with highs only expected to reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
This will be associated with an upper trough swinging across the Ohio Valley and a cold front dropping south into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region.
524 PM MDT Thu May 27 2021 Ridge axis has moved over the ID/WY border early this afternoon with upper level trough from yesterday now over north-central South Dakota. The trough continues bringing moister NW flow to NE WY, though clouds are diminishing. Breezy west flow with gusts 20-25 mph have developed this afternoon over portions of southern and central WY, and should decrease this evening and overnight as the ridge axis moves eastward.
Regional upper air RAP and mesoscale analysis reveals dry westerly flow aloft as well as a weak UL trough and PVA anomaly leaving the area to the east with an upstream split-flow pattern over the W US. Early afternoon METSAT also revealed clear skies across the region with CU developing over the higher terrain north of the area.
A sprawling dome of high pressure centered just west of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary over the next several days, extending throughout much of the western Atlantic and into the Florida Peninsula.
624 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 A cold front will continue to surge southward this afternoon and move south of the KS/OK border by early evening.
Convection has blossomed today in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over Iowa this afternoon. Low pressure is forecast to traverse Indiana and Ohio on Friday, with a cold front sweeping across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Additional convection appears likely over the eastern half of the forecast area, and the approaching upper level trough will provide stronger winds aloft. Temps should hover in the 70s until cooler air begins invading Friday evening behind fropa. By Friday evening, a cold front should be pushing east of the region.
946 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 A weak cold front will spark a few showers and thunderstorms in northwest North Carolina this afternoon. By Friday afternoon, a more potent cold front will provide widespread showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and damp conditions are expected for this weekend, before things begin to warm up again and we dry out. A potent cold front with a compact upper level trough will approach the Appalachian Mountains from the west by Friday afternoon, which should trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms.
A fairly messy/wet and potentially stormy pattern is still progged for the start of this part of the forecast with the approach/pass- age of an apparent MCS from the W/NW and then lingering POPs as we have a weak cold front stall over the CWA. A weak upper level ridge building in from West TX should help with drying things out by Sat evening on into Sun and Mon. Even with SE winds returning by Sun night/Mon, the slightly cooler/drier air is going to stick around through the holiday weekend. A deepening upper trof way out to the west, and the return of an active tropical jet does indicate more rain/storms starting at/ around mid week on through the end of the week.
An upper level trough is pushing into the PacNW this afternoon and this is bringing onshore flow along with slightly cooler temperature compared to yesterday this time. This trough will also bring some high clouds to the region mainly north of I-80 this evening into the overnight. The trough will lift north into Canada Friday and that will be the start of a warming trend with most Valley locations pushing back into the 90s.
/issued 302 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The 500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV throughout the short term, but will be squashed down somewhat by a series of weak short waves moving over the top of the ridge axis on Fri. With the ridge axis holding on stubbornly and most of the significant moisture return remaining limited to central and northern TX on Fri ahead of a cold front edging into northern TX, do not expect any serious rainfall chcs throughout the short term period. Tidal runup closer to the high tide tomorrow morning may need a Coastal Flood Statement, but will allow the evening and overnight shift to make that decision.
530 PM MDT Thu May 27 2021 A subtle ridge over northern Utah shifting atop a shallow trough in central Arizona have created split flow aloft and majority of the CWA currently resides in between the two systems. Best chance for storms will concentrate over these ranges between 21-00Z this evening, as a sliver of energy from the lifting trough maximizes. The next Pacific NW trough pushes split flow east of the Divide overnight, leaving southwest veering to zonal flow aloft. Upper-level split flow will develop over the region this weekend with a strong wave moving across southern Canada and another weak trough dropping south across the Great Basin.
Otherwise, some cooler air will begin filtering into the region tonight behind a cold front bringing some below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather for the Memorial Day weekend.
An upper level low pressure currently over the region will continue pushing eastward tonight, with showers generally ending from west to east. The biggest question in the short term is whether or not clouds clear off enough to allow temperatures to drop below freezing.
257 PM PDT Thu May 27 2021 A cold front is bringing scattered showers and gusty southwest winds for the region.
Anticipate with the onset of nightfall for these to dissipate and for things to be mostly dry for much of the night until a cold front works in from the west by morning. A cold front will be moving toward the area tonight, and should arrive by late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be normal or perhaps even slightly below normal Friday and Friday night, as much cooler air is expected to spill into the area behind the departing cold front.
730 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021 A low pressure system will approach tonight and move through on Friday.