Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. We'll see another opportunity for scattered afternoon convection across central/southern VT tomorrow as weak vorticity moves through the base of the trough aloft and modest instability develops (~800- 1000 J/kg).
211 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A weak cold front will bring slightly cooler and more comfortable weather to start off the holiday weekend.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 90s along the I-70 corridor to upper 90s along the KS/OK border.
1006 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Latest upper air and satellite data show a mid level ridge and associated Saharan Air Layer across the forecast area. A little bit more of a westerly component to the low level winds today could allow for better mixing of continental air and the lowering of dewpoints enough from around 80F to the mid to low 70s by afternoon, that it will keep the heat index and apparent temperature between 102F and 107F and below heat advisory criteria. Some of the high res guidance wants to bring in a few showers this afternoon. The ridge aloft which has kept rain chances low over the past few days will shift west away from the area Friday as a trough digs into the southeastern states.
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Summer like pattern remains the story for the extended as mid and upper level ridge dominate the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The 500 mb ridge axis will continue edging westward throughout the short term period which will maintain generally status quo conditions across the region through Fri Night.
Weakness in the ridge and the piece of vorticity that brought storms to the Trans Pecos and Val Verde county last night/early this morning has since dissipated. Subtropical ridge builds and expands over the region and will be the dominant feature driving our weather pattern.
Thunderstorms are firing up across the high plains of Colorado, while additional storms have begun to redevelop just southeast of the forecast area, likely related to earlier outflow and energy from earlier decayed convection over southern Kansas.
352 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A high amplitude upper-level ridge in place across the region will remain in place through the short term. High pressure at the surface and stagnant flow will result in warm temperatures and light winds.
There will be some minor movement in the troughs on both coastlines over the next couple days but not enough to jolt us out of the hot pattern. The deep trough over the west coast will lift back northward with energy releasing out of it acting to flatten the amplified ridge up through central Canada heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, the cutoff low over New England will get picked up by a trough dropping through eastern Canada and forced east over the Atlantic. The meaningful part of this locally will be Friday afternoon when the eastern trough pulls a PV filament down the backside of the ridge through lower MI. The warm airmass and high pressure will result in a pretty good cap over the area but the increased moisture combined with lake breeze boundaries may be enough to force a few thunderstorms.
119 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today into Friday.
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass builds into the region through the end of the week. Temperatures drop into the low-mid 60s. Longwave ridging pattern centered over much of the US continues to influence the regional weather into Friday. While ambient temperatures are warmer by a few degrees, surface dewpoint temperatures are not increasing as weak northerly flow keeps surface moisture values limited to the low 60s. H5 ridge over the middle of the country buckles a little due to energy rounding the top.
Regarding temperatures: Temperatures are still expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s again Friday and with Td values today already in the lower to mid 70s (similar possible Fri) heat indicies may once again approach the middle 90s. Temperatures will also tend to drop to more seasonal levels in the low to mid 80s for afternoon highs.
Southwest flow continues as an upper low spins in southern British Columbia. A few showers and one thunderstorm pushed through the lower Magic Valley this evening and has since moved into eastern Idaho.
945 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass builds into the region through the end of the week. Current surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered over Wisconsin, extending through the southern Great Lakes and much of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures drop into the low-mid 60s. Longwave ridging pattern centered over much of the US continues to influence the regional weather into Friday. While ambient temperatures are warmer by a few degrees, surface dewpoint temperatures are not increasing as weak northerly flow keeps surface moisture values limited to the low 60s. H5 ridge over the middle of the country buckles a little due to energy rounding the top.
/issued 233 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ An upper high centered over the Central Plains is forecast to drift into the desert Southwest US over the forecast period. It will be somewhat difficult to pinpoint exactly where thunderstorms will form with a lack of synoptic scale fronts, however the best probability for rainfall should be across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area proximal to the Gulf Coast upper low.
NW CONUS upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region through the period at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region at times. Convection will likely develop over portions of NE WY where capping will be weakest, with other convection possible on the Black Hills and on the Pine Ridge over northern Neb and/or scentral SD per weak CIN.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible into the early evening in far northeast Nevada as a weak short wave trough moves through the region.
653 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass builds into the region through the end of the week. Temperatures drop into the low-mid 60s. Longwave ridging pattern centered over much of the US continues to influence the regional weather into Friday. While ambient temperatures are warmer by a few degrees, surface dewpoint temperatures are not increasing as weak northerly flow keeps surface moisture values limited to the low 60s. H5 ridge over the middle of the country buckles a little due to energy rounding the top.
733 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through Friday.
630 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Broad cyclonic flow aloft continues as the axis of a midlevel trough extends from SW-NE across the Atlantic seaboard.
610 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show a highly amplified pattern in place across the Nation, as a pair of low pressure systems to our east and west keep a squished ridge axis centered across the Country. The heat and humidity under the ridge axis has kept conditions in eastern Kansas and northern Missouri hot and muggy for the most part, with occasional storms as nocturnal MCS's wander across the Plains States. Benefit of the surface anti-cyclone is the somewhat drier easterly surface wind that should remain in place across Missouri and eastern Kansas through the weekend, which will take the edge off the heat and humidity a bit for the holiday.
/Issued 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ More active zone of weak short wave energy riding down the front side of the broad, weak upper ridge to our northwest has shifted west of the state and this trend is expected to continue through the short- term forecast period. Over the weekend, an upper low will linger over the Gulf Coast, providing a focus for the highest convective coverage, especially across the western half of the forecast area.
514 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020 NW CONUS upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region through the period at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region at times. Convection will likely develop over portions of NE WY where capping will be weakest, with other convection possible on the Black Hills and on the Pine Ridge over northern Neb and/or scentral SD per weak CIN.
The highest chances for showers and storms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Behind a cold front any lingering convection will quickly end through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.
On Friday, a southwesterly flow aloft will set up over the region, allowing for warmer air to move back in.
1003 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through Friday.
728 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure will remain to the northwest of the area through Friday. A very weak cold front will approach the area on Friday night.
On Fri, the upper ridge is expected to be centered about over northeast NM. Dew points Fri afternoon are expected to mostly be in the 40s to lower 50s across the southeast plains, and in the 30s in the high valleys. Temps will generally be around to a little above average, with highs mostly in the 90s across the southeast plains, and in the 80s in the high valleys.
The Tennessee Valley region remains in between a developing low along the northern Gulf Coast and a stronger area of high pressure centered over the Central/Southern Plains. Beginning on Friday, 500 mb heights slightly lower due to a persistent trough to our northeast expanding into the Southeast. Late this weekend there will be a ridge building from the Southwest into the Plains and a mid/upper level low anchored in the Lower MS Valley.
947 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will remain in control of the region through Friday with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
738 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. Overnight lows will remain warm, generally in the low-mid 60s and locally in the upper 60s in the Champlain Valley. We'll see another opportunity for scattered afternoon convection across central/southern VT tomorrow as weak vorticity moves through the base of the trough aloft and modest instability develops (~800- 1000 J/kg).
Current temperatures range from the middle 70s to low 80s and should fall into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Tomorrow should be warmer with less widespread showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance of storms will be in East Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. An upper high centered over the Central Plains is forecast to drift into the desert Southwest US over the forecast period. It will be somewhat difficult to pinpoint exactly where thunderstorms will form with a lack of synoptic scale fronts, however the best probability for rainfall should be across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area proximal to the Gulf Coast upper low.
Broad upper troughing occurring over SWRN BC and the PAC NW is forecast to persist during the next seven days. The arrival time of the lower ceiling is uncertain.
Weak high pressure will build in from the north for the weekend with lower chances of rainfall. A weak cold front is dipping south across South Carolina this afternoon. Today's front should stall out across Georgia with a very weak ridge building across the Carolinas Friday.
Dry air continues to filter into South Texas as high pressure at the surface and aloft move overhead. Pressure gradient slackens tonight and Friday with high pressure building across the region. /Issued 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The 500 mb ridge axis will continue edging westward throughout the short term period which will maintain generally status quo conditions across the region through Fri Night.
Surface analysis depicts a weak high pressure ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and through the Keys and extreme South Florida across the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, lower to mid level ridging also lies almost directly overhead. The 00Z Key West sounding reflects the influence of the ridging aloft, with very weak flow and abundant dry air through the lower and mid levels, and weak inversions near 3000 and 7000 feet. Lows by morning should reach the lower 80s for most locations.
912 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show a highly amplified pattern in place across the Nation, as a pair of low pressure systems to our east and west keep a squished ridge axis centered across the Country. The heat and humidity under the ridge axis has kept conditions in eastern Kansas and northern Missouri hot and muggy for the most part, with occasional storms as nocturnal MCS's wander across the Plains States. Benefit of the surface anti-cyclone is the somewhat drier easterly surface wind that should remain in place across Missouri and eastern Kansas through the weekend, which will take the edge off the heat and humidity a bit for the holiday.
1036 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. Combined with variable mid-level cloudiness, overnight lows will remain warm, generally in the low- mid 60s and locally in the upper 60s in the Champlain Valley. We'll see another opportunity for scattered afternoon convection across central/southern VT tomorrow as weak vorticity moves through the base of the trough aloft and modest instability develops (~800- 1000 J/kg).
/Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ An upper level ridge and the slowly diminishing Saharan dust will persist over the area through Friday night keeping rain chances extremely low.
Light winds and mainly high clouds are expected overnight under high pressure. High pressure is sitting over central WI this afternoon. Temperatures have crept into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints are holding steady in the lower to mid 60s.
An Appalachian-lee trough will redevelop over VA and the Carolinas Fri, then persist ahead of a backdoor front that will settle south across VA and nern NC Sat night. The 00Z 7/2/20 KGSO sounding showed high pressure is on track to develop across the region, with an inversion developing between 650- 600 mb. While hot, the lower humidity values will result in Heat Index values very similar to the dry bulb temperatures. The warmer air mass will also favor slightly milder lows, generally around 70 degrees.
This will lead to a stronger and cooler Delta Breeze this afternoon into the overnight. This will keep highs about 4-7 degrees cooler than yesterday in Delta influenced areas, other areas will see similar highs as yesterday. Similar conditions are expected for tomorrow with the continued enhanced cooler Delta flow. Long wave troughing over the PacNW will retreat north some over the weekend as the SW high retrogrades. This will bring slightly warmer conditions to NorCal and weaker Delta flow.
Light and variable winds will continue into the weekend as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes. Waves will remain on the low end through this period.
West-southwest winds generally around 10-15 knots will prevail over the gulf coast waters as high pressure ridges over southern Florida. Daily scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day with the highest chances north of Tarpon Springs earlier in the day. /issued 630 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ Broad cyclonic flow aloft continues as the axis of a midlevel trough extends from SW-NE across the Atlantic seaboard.
625 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A high amplitude upper-level ridge in place across the region will remain in place through the short term. High pressure at the surface and stagnant flow will result in warm temperatures and light winds.
929 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A high amplitude upper-level ridge in place across the region will remain in place through the short term. High pressure at the surface and stagnant flow will result in warm temperatures and light winds.
942 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure will remain to the northwest of the area through Friday. A very weak cold front will approach the area on Friday night.
/issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours, but coverage should be much lower than the last few days as upper level ridging slowly strengthens across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Hot and dry conditions are forecast on Friday as an upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico/New Mexico dominates the weather across the region. Upper level ridge eases into place for the weekend and brings drier conditions back to the area.
1213 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A cold front will exit south of the Downeast coast overnight. High pressure will build across the area Friday.
High pressure will provide mainly dry and hot weather through the Holiday weekend.
401 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A weak low pressure area off of Cape Cod will move southward along the mid Atlantic coast today and tonight.
An upper level ridge remains anchored over the forecast area today, and this will keep conditions hot and dry. Many of the models generate isolated showers/t-storms with this wave, but confidence is low given limited moisture and the strength of the ridge. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s for most areas, warmest east of I-69.
225 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Midlevel moisture continues to increase across the Desert Southwest early this morning as the Pacific trough situated over the northwestern CONUS retreats to the northeast and a ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains migrates westward. Short-term models and CAM guidance indicate showers will initiate over southeast Utah this morning with activity spreading to the high country of southwest and west-central Colorado by early afternoon. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats at the onset before dewpoints climb into the mid 30s and even the low 40s by mid afternoon, leading to brief heavy downpours with convection.
Reaves More active zone of weak short wave energy riding down the front side of the broad, weak upper ridge to our northwest has shifted west of the state and this trend is expected to continue through the short- term forecast period. Over the weekend, an upper low will linger over the Gulf Coast, providing a focus for the highest convective coverage, especially across the western half of the forecast area.
The ridge aloft which is centered over northern Mexico and is responsible for the dry weather over the past few days is shifting west as a trough moves into the southeastern states. At the surface a ridge is centered in the north central gulf. A weak trough has drifted into the southeast states as well. Today the upper ridge will continue to shift west as the upper trough moves closer.
305 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through today.
253 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A large ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will keep warm and dry weather going across the region, through the holiday weekend. At the surface, 1018 mb high pressure was centered over northern WI. The upper ridge will keep its grip on the Midwest this weekend.
256 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Current surface map places trof across far eastern Montana through eastern Wyoming.
221 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through today.
408 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend. A broad area of mid and upper level ridging continues today across the central United States, stretching from Mexico up into the western Great Lakes and south central Canada. With 8H temps nudging up a bit from yesterday, expect highs today mainly in the lower 90s.
247 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest while a frontal boundary ran from southeast Colorado into the Tennessee Valley. Through sunrise the slowly filling upper low across the area will continue to create isolated showers south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Behind a cold front any lingering convection will quickly end through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Temperatures perhaps a touch cooler than Thursday with highs in 80s, but humid with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
With the humid conditions, heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s. Upper level ridging will remain firmly in place through the weekend with warm and humid conditions at the surface. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will lead to heat indices reaching the lower to mid 90s.
308 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will build into the area from the northwest through Friday.
This results in a continuation of hot and dry weather with highs in the lower 90s. The higher dew points may also lead to a better chance for scattered convection in the afternoon/evening hours. Persistent sfc ridging will continue to promote mainly tranquil conditions on Lake Michigan through the holiday weekend.
134 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass builds into the region through the end of the week. Current surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered over Wisconsin, extending through the southern Great Lakes and much of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures drop into the low-mid 60s. Longwave ridging pattern centered over much of the US continues to influence the regional weather into Friday. While ambient temperatures are warmer by a few degrees, surface dewpoint temperatures are not increasing as weak northerly flow keeps surface moisture values limited to the low 60s. H5 ridge over the middle of the country buckles a little due to energy rounding the top.
As Independence Day weekend progresses, a weak upper level low will take shape along Gulf Coast, which will begin to usher in deeper low level moisture northward into at least southern half of mid state on Independence Day.
Aloft, ridging extended from the upper Midwest southwestward to Mexico, and a trough was near the East Coast. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will move east, effectively allowing for more control for the ridge.
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the southwest CONUS and push the Polar Jet farther north along the West Coast today and tomorrow.
High pressure will provide another clear and quiet night across the region. Dry, hot conditions will prevail this afternoon/evening; temperatures should soar into the low-90s with building upper-level heights to our west. Hot, dry weather will continue into the rest of the 4th of July weekend as high pressure elongates across the CONUS. As the upper-level longwave starts to flatten out over the MidWest and a low pressure system develops across the Gulf, rain and thunderstorm chances may return to the region for the start of the work week. Low level moisture does not become overly oppressive as surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s.
221 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Warmer air moves into the region today, generally about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than Thursday and fairly close to normal.
315 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will build into the area from the northwest through Friday.
1230 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will build into the area from the northwest through Friday.
Dry, hot conditions will prevail this afternoon/evening; temperatures should soar into the low-90s with building high pressure to our west. Hot, dry weather will continue for the rest of the 4th of July holiday weekend as high pressure expands across the CONUS.
The best instability is forecast over north and west portions of the forecast area and this is where the highest pops will be, but not by a lot.