Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
525 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 08z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front draped along the Ohio River, with 1037mb high pressure centered over southwest Minnesota. Due to overcast conditions and a brisk northerly breeze, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a few degrees, resulting in high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday, keeping the primary baroclinic zone suppressed well to the south.
633 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL.
255 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 COLD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TODAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS LAST S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE LOW POSITION ON SUNDAY.
GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. /ISSUED 355 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS VERY SLOW ERLY PUSH AS IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. ALLOWING RAINS AND COOLER AIR TO SETTLE IN IN ITS WAKE OVER THESE AREAS.
COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE COAST AT 11Z SO NOT QUITE REACHING KGLS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
SAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SW WYOMING.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THIS HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER AREAS OVERNIGHT, IT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS IS PREVENTING ANY OF THE STORMS AND SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC FROM REACHING OUR AREA. THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE IS FINALLY KICKED OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO RETURN TO OUR REGION.
354 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW CENTERS CIRCULATING AROUND EACH OTHER WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AND STRETCH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THEN THE LOW CENTER THAT SPURRED THE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO/ERN UT LAST EVENING WILL CIRCULATE BACK AROUND AND PASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE SUNDAY. THE AREA BUT THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DUAL CYCLONE CLOSED LOW DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ALREADY AND THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THOSE TWO REMAINING TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ RAIN-COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT FARTHER SE INTO THE CWA. THE MORE SOUTHWARD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 55 62 57 / 20 40 90 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 53 60 54 / 20 40 90 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 53 59 55 / 30 50 90 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 50 59 52 / 20 40 70 80.
605 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE ERODING FROM THE WEST AT THE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY INCREASE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION EJECTING NWD ALONG THE NRN UT/CO BORDERS. WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMS FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS NUDGING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A NE WIND FLOW.
ACCENTUATING N/S GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
625 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
FREEZING LEVEL MEASURED AT 15469 FEET. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO SHREVEPORT AND CONTINUES NORTHEAST. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEHIND IT CENTERED NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS VIRTUALLY CUTOFF AND NOT MOVING ENOUGH TO PROGRESS THE FRONT SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SUPPRESSION SOUTHWARD OF UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA.
We do expect that, much like Kalispell, once freezing fog/low stratus clouds takes hold in Missoula it will likely not dissipate significantly until midweek.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES.
828 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Freezing rain advisory dropped for Washington and Creek counties as temperatures remain above 32 degrees. The heaviest rain will remain across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas nearest the low level jet and consequent maximum in low level moisture transport. With this trend expected to continue, the freezing rain area to the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma is at its maximum extent. Western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties could see an additional tenth of an inch or so of ice accumulation before surface temperatures warm above freezing late this morning. The only change to the existing Freezing Rain Advisory will be to push back the expiration time to noon.
544 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAIN AREAS OF -RA WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AROUND CRP KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA IN A NORTH SURFACE WIND OF 10-20 MPH. OTHER THAN THE RIVER CHANNELS AND VALLEYS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL AT ABOUT 35-40 KTS AS INDICATED BY THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE.
418 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 RAIN-COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT FARTHER SE INTO THE CWA. THE MORE SOUTHWARD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT OUT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS IN ITS WAKE. THE RIDGE WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AS THE TROUGH HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50S FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING.
322 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. FORECAST HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
1010 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015 PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z THURSDAY. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
Despite clearing skies and the presence of a very dry airmass, brisk northwesterly winds of 10 to 15mph will continue throughout the night and should keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than MAV guidance.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT.
209 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Upper level trough currently poised over our area, will continue to move east today.
The HRRR/RAP/SREF probabilities and to a lesser extent the ARW support patchy freezing fog early this morning. Today, westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will continue while weak High Plains lee troughing prevails. This supports highs in the 40s, expect cooler over the snowpack.
419 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING PRECIP TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE NEXT AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Low clouds will continue pushing southeast of the area this morning as upper trough moves east of the region. Behind the cold front, clear skies, light winds and a dry air-mass has allowed temperatures to drop off into the lower/mid 20s north of Interstate 44.
/issued 346 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) A broad trough continues to affect the western 2/3 of the CONUS, continuing the pattern of dry and breezy conditions across West Central TX. A Pacific cold front extends south from this low pressure center and is approaching the Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon. Most of the CWA will fall into the mid/upper 20s, with the low-lying areas and river valleys again dipping into the lower 20s.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE OTHER STORY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW THREAT WHERE THE HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER THIS AFTN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH LOWS LAST NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER DEEPER SNOW PACK. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. AND ENSUING CAA AS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AND IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
1125 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 910 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WAS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND CLEAR WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
A DRIER COOLER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ALREADY SEEING SOME FREEZING TEMPS IN NW GA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TEMPS THIS MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLDEST AIR HAS NOT MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE YET.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
SOME SFC TROFS EXTENDED OUT FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS SPOKES ON A WHEEL. DRIER AIR FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE BROAD DEEP-LAYERED LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD TO ONTARIO.
OPTED TO STICK ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
334 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A RIDGE EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES INTO WESTERN CANADA. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACRS THE AREA SAT. SETTLING E OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN WHILE A MODEST LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVES THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE MISS RIVER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DEEPENING WARM BLYR WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PRECIP BEFORE HITTING A SUB-FREEZING GROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS WORKING EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES LATE THIS EVENING. CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY.
WINDS HAVE LIFTED OFF SURFACE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH IN. ADDED CAUTION TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NUDGED TEMPS COOLER WHILE UPDATING THE WINDS TO REFLECT THIS SURGE. /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX/AR/LA. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND HIGH WILL MOVE THRU LATER THIS EVENING. DML NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO TEXAS.
330 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ON THE WEEKEND. 500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. A RIDGE FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 150 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
1230 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
At 20Z upper level troughing remained over the central U. At the surface, high pressure had moved into the central and southern plains. Think there should be a lot more insolation and based on mixing the boundary layer to around 900MB, think highs should warm into the lower and mid 40s.
Northwest breezes were observed in the response to an approaching high pressure center located over northwest Kansas.
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE ELKHEAD. AND THESE WILL END BY MID EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
Temperatures today should break the freezing mark across the area as warm advection returns and 850 temps rise several degrees by late day today. Have highs in the lower to middle 40s and could climb a degree or two higher as skies are mostly sunny for the day. Over the weekend more zonal flow aloft develops allowing the lee side trough to deepen across the plains.
900 PM PST THU DEC 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND AS SUCH HAVE ONLY GONE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SW VA AND THE E TN MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER NOON TODAY. GUSTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UP TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TODAY WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MID 40S.
A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS CAME IN SLIGHTLY WETTER AND COLDER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE WEST BRINGING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
UPDATED 0600Z UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
246 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 AM ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BETTER WITH AN EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1040 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT AS OF 04Z WAS JUST WEST OF OUR TYR/TXK TERMINALS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IN AND OUT CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8KFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. /ISSUED 947 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
WITH THE HIGHEST /20 TO 30/ POPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF SETTING COLD ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO.
FOR FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE WILL EDGE OVER BY LATE IN THE DAY. AND THE TONE WILL BE SET FOR A SUITABLE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST.
That wave will depart the region to the east tonight while ridging begins to amplify over the west. This ridging will have a minimal impact the area Friday but the slight warm advection may be enough to warm us close to normal.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE MIDDLE UNITED STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXARKANA ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT.
457 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
1127 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH SE TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 355 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WAS BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS SE TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS.
UPPER RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ALL AREAS FRIDAY.
151 AM MST FRI DEC 18 2015 PER COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY OFFICE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES FROM 10Z-15Z THURSDAY. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER HAVE SATURATED/NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING FOG. IF THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST VERIFIES DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
Despite the cold start, temperatures will rebound nicely today under sunny skies, climbing into the middle to upper 50s for much of the area, with a few locations through the Rio Grande Valley and the Trans Pecos reaching into the lower 60s. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be closer to normal, ranging from the lower 20s to middle 30s across the area.
344 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH EXTENSION WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST DURING NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL ALREADY BE INVADING THE DAKOTAS SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR WEATHER TO WARM UP.
The cold Canadian airmass will be in control through today and into tonight as an upper level ridge begins to shift east into the plains.
1015 PM PST THU DEC 17 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ONTARIO WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. AND THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. AS NWP MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES C WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. BUT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MODELS ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. BASED ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING E/SE ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA EARLY THIS MORNING.
On Friday, we commence the warm-up as large scale ridging influences western Kansas.
WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WITH ONE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SREF/NAM/RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS STRATUS AND MOVE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 40 CORRIDOR IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.