Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The models continue to show mid and upper level moisture increasing over western and northern Colorado this afternoon, as a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Rockies. Overnight, the flow aloft will continue into increase from the northwest, with the closed upper low over east-central Idaho by 12z Friday. Models continue to show an upper closed low over the northern U. There is a trialing upper trough into Colorado the entire time bringing a more unsettled pattern to the CWA.
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge will remain over the region today as an upper trough over WA/OR this morning moves across ID today and into WY Friday. As the trough moves east the 500mb heights will fall across NM and TX Friday.
559 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Another breezy day is expected across the area today as the pressure gradient remains tight between Ian to our southeast and high pressure to our north. Highs are expected to range from the lower 70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
High pressure over eastern New Mexico/northern Texas this morning will gradually slide further to the southeast. As we head towards the weekend, the main item of note in the pattern is a closed upper level low that starts to dig southward and then drifts across the western US.
An upper low moving into the Pacific NW will be the main weather feature over the the short term period. The low will move into the panhandle later this afternoon and eventually sink into southeastern Idaho during the day Friday. This will bring a noticeable pattern change to the region with precip chances, breezy conditions today and much cooler weather today but especially into Friday. Hi-res CAMs support tstm potential especially across the high country the next few days as a few rounds of precip move cyclonically through the area as the low moves overhead Friday. This is when temperatures will be much cooler with highs only expected in the 50s and 60s across eastern Idaho.
605 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
Huston An upper low moving into the Pacific NW will be the main weather feature over the the short term period. The low will move into the panhandle later this afternoon and eventually sink into southeastern Idaho during the day Friday. This will bring a noticeable pattern change to the region with precip chances, breezy conditions today and much cooler weather today but especially into Friday. Hi-res CAMs support tstm potential especially across the high country the next few days as a few rounds of precip move cyclonically through the area as the low moves overhead Friday. This is when temperatures will be much cooler with highs only expected in the 50s and 60s across eastern Idaho.
239 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for the next several days along with dry weather, influenced by persistent high pressure in the region. Nevertheless, some gradual air mass modification should bring a slight upward trend in temperatures over the upcoming day, with lows tonight in the lower 40s, and highs Friday in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, another high pressure system approaches the upper Great Lakes via Canada. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower to mid 70s each day.
Upper level ridging centered across the western half of Texas into eastern NM will be weakening through the day today, though it will remain as our region will be stuck in between upper level low pressure to the east associated with Ian and another upper level low near the northern Rockies. This will result in continued clear and dry conditions with cool mornings and near to slightly warmer than normal afternoons.
121 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Although more sunshine will be around, it will still be a touch cool with highs in the low to mid 60s today. A shallow layer of somewhat colder 925 mb temps will hold on for much of the day, stopping the increasingly warmer 850 mb temps from fully mixing down. As a result, highs in the low to mid 60s will be common.
After a chilly start in the 30s to lower 40s, sunny conditions will help temperatures rebound to the lower to upper 60s by afternoon, warmest across the southwest counties. A blocking pattern aloft, with an upper ridge over the Central U. VFR conditions will be seen through 12z/30 as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.
Looking aloft, we have a pair of upper lows over the western CONUS, and a trough along the East Coast which is drawing Ian north. In addition, persist surface ridging that extends from the Great Lakes south to the TX Gulf Coast, blocking the return of Gulf moisture. We've had some cooling at H85 from the east/northeast since yesterday, as a wave dove down the back side of the eastern CONUS trough. Thus, highs today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday.
1147 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Seasonably cool end to the week with frost and near-freezing conditions across the northern tier. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 5C yields expected max temps ranging from the mid 50s over the highest terrain of the north to the upper 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. A Frost Advisory was issued for the 05Z-13Z Friday period with expected low temps in the low-mid 30s. and Euro Models along with their ensembles develop quite an enhanced llvl gradient between the remnant low and strong high pressure extending from the Northern Great Lakes east to the New England states.
Inland areas will be cooler, as the marine air works farther inland.
The main axis of the upper ridge has passed to our east and a large closed low slowly moving out of the PacNW will stall out as it moves into the northern Rockies. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 50s with highs Friday afternoon in the low to mid 80s. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing the upper level pattern slowing to a crawl as the ridge over the central US gets squeezed into an omega block between the closed low over the northern Rockies and the circulation of Ian pushing northeastward from the southeast coast into the southern Appalachians. So as the stacked low over the northern Rockies slowly moves east, a cold front will gradually progress from west to east across Nebraska.
Pleasant and cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
Current temperatures are in the low 60s and should increase to the mid to low 70s by this afternoon.
Some of the higher clouds on the outer fringes of Ian will start to arrive later tonight. Lows tonight will mostly drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s, but some readings in the mid 30s are possible across the far northeast CWA, especially if the high clouds remain thin as currently forecast.
Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from Wisconsin to the eastern Great Lakes early this afternoon. High pressure will have drifted just enough east for light southerly return flow to take place on Friday.
245 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 A weak mid/upper ridge axis is generally over portions of the Great Lakes extending into the southern plains. This general pattern will support slightly warmer than normal temps from this afternoon through the weekend. Like mentioned before, general upper ridging will remain in place through the weekend.
We should see a gradual increase in showers and a couple of storms this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain. The models continue to show mid and upper level moisture increasing over western and northern Colorado this afternoon, as a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Rockies. Overnight, the flow aloft will continue into increase from the northwest, with the closed upper low over east-central Idaho by 12z Friday. Models continue to show an upper closed low over the northern U. There is a trialing upper trough into Colorado the entire time bringing a more unsettled pattern to the CWA.
Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to breezier south to southeast winds this afternoon coupled with stronger daytime heating.
/CAB/ (Today through Friday) Dry and cooler fall-like temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow.
/Issued 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022/ /This Afternoon through Friday Night/ North Texas will be just east of stronger mid level ridging and under the broad outer influence of large scale flow around Tropical Storm Ian. This has sent a weak backdoor front into the region this morning and is resulting in cooler and drier air. Other than some elevated grass fire threat across the region given the low humidity, no significant weather is expected through Friday.
237 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Upper ridging that's been squeezed over eastern Montana is finally being pushed east by the upper low currently entering western Idaho, which will send our temperatures on a downward spiral overnight and bring about a weekend of cool and wet conditions. Relatively decent instability and lapse rates are present over south-central Montana, and as the upper low moves a bit more eastern the next few hours, dynamic ascent from it will bring about Storm activity for the area this evening. While snow will occur over the higher portions of Beartooth Pass, little accumulation on the road is expected.
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Sprawling high pressure centered over Lower Michigan with the center checking in at 1036 MB this morning (still holding around 1034 MB this afternoon).
Instability ahead of the low is sparking some shower and thunderstorm activity west of the Divide, and they are tapping the cold pool aloft. With the upper low shifting into Wyoming and slowing down, expect continued rainfall for most areas.
(This evening through Friday) Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper low over northwestern Mexico with an upper ridge centered over west Texas and an upper low over the PNW. As the upper low digs southeast towards the Plains, upper flow over New Mexico will become more southwesterly. If clouds move in before sunrise, it will result in warmer lows than are currently forecast.
1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Forecast Key Points: - Dry and Seasonable Temperatures Continue As of 1230 PM Thursday afternoon broad, midlevel ridging continues across the southern Plains with quasi-zonal flow across our area.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Weak upper lvl ridging will continue to provide quiescent weather for our region through the remainder of this week. 850 hpa temperatures will tick up by a degree or so on Friday afternoon and thus highs will be a degree or two warmer than today mainly in the mid to upper 80s w/a few 90s in the lowest elevations including the river valleys.
247 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary over the Plains. Quiet, dry and cooler than normal conditions will be seen tonight and Friday. Temperatures generally at or cooler than normal into early October.
Cold front has moved through the area earlier this morning, and will bring cooler temperatures today.
will start to transition to more moist and warmer air overnight tonight into Friday. High temperatures today will be in the low to upper 70s.
145 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Despite high pressure building southeast across the airspace with strong subsidence aloft, a pesky inversion around 4 kft has allowed remnant low-level moisture to be trapped in lingering light northeast flow across much of the region. SKC eventually takes over this evening and through tonight before fog becomes an increasing concern with falling temps and decreasing dewpoint depressions towards sunrise in prototypical early fall high pressure radiational cooling environment. Stratus/thick stratocu deck around 4kft looks to continue holding on for at least another hour or two with continued erosion of the low-level moisture proceeding from west to east into the mid- afternoon hours. Plenty of sunshine will then boost temps to the lower 60s for an afternoon high and winds will remain light.
250 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 A Pacific weather system brings cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail through early this evening. Upper level low centered over northern ID this afternoon will slowly move southeast reaching NW WY by late Friday. Coverage of showers will decrease overall tonight but some more concentrated activity is possible across SW MT as the upper low moves closer as well as near Glacier park and east through Glacier ad Toole counties as moisture pivots northwestward around the low.
221 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Another cool and quiescent night is on tap with high pressure solidly in control. Lows tonight should be a smidge "warmer" than last night, but still expecting a smattering of mid 30s in our typical cool spots, particularly across parts of the Fox River Valley. Crossover temperatures in the low to mid 40s will be attainable away from Chicago and the lake, with patchy shallow fog expected once again. A similarly beautiful day is in store on Friday, with highs a handful of degrees warmer than today.
The northwest flow has also brought in dew points in the lower 70s, making it feel quite comfortable.
A weak ridge rests between the upper lows including the Panhandles. A surface lee trough has developed today with typical downsloping breezy southwest winds and warm temperatures into the 80s and 90s. In addition, the upper low over the Pacific Northwest will have transitioned southeast over Idaho.
257 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 For tonight, radiational cooling enhanced by light winds and clear skies will support overnight temperatures dipping into the low 50s and upper 40s. Friday will start off with morning temperatures in the low 50s.
318 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Discussion/Marine Given the hard freeze this morning and also freezing temperatures on the 23rd, we have ended the growing season for the northern tier, namely the counties of Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare. Clouds will not be an issue tonight with drying and subsidence under surface and upper ridging.
The highest rain chances are forecast to be in the eastern portion of the CWA, where likely PoPs are expected during the afternoon.
(Tonight through Friday night) Broad, mid-level ridging will stand tall over Texas in the short term, with underlying high pressure and mostly seasonal weather through the short term.
In the shorter term, we'll be in a blocking pattern under the ridging portion of what looks like an omega block across the CONUS. Our area will be under the ridge portion of this block, contributing to the warmer than normal temperatures. A strengthening lee side trough will result in a strong enough pressure gradient that western and northwestern portions of the forecast area will see afternoon winds in the 10-15 mph range with some stronger/occasional gusts to 20 to 25 mph.
A cut-off low pressure system continues to spin over north-central Idaho this afternoon, and will continue to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies through this evening. Later this evening and overnight, the low center will move east over west-central Montana, and over the Continental Divide tomorrow morning. Locations along the Continental Divide, northwest Montana and the Camas Prairie of Idaho, still have the highest probability of receiving 0.
high pressure will provide abundant sunshine for most of the day with fine fall weather ensuing across the entire area.
1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure and dry mid to upper levels will remain over the forecast area today.
cooler temperatures. Most likely a degree or two warmer than yesterday as 14Z observations are running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday. (Today through Friday) Dry conditions continue, but the cooler high temperatures are preventing min RH values from getting as low as earlier this week. Enhanced low level mixing with strong winds and dry air aloft may bring min RH values to around 20 to 25 percent for some areas, especially west and south where temps may get a few degrees warmer.
A moderate warming trend is expected for the latter part of the week, as high pressure builds inland and surface flow turns more offshore. The marine layer continues to diminish as high pressure system starts to build west of our CWA. Temperatures remain slightly cooler than average with highs today reaching low 70s inland and mid 60s along the coast.
Temperatures overnight will drop to the low 70s and upper 60s over the interior, before cloud coverage from Ian breaks and allows for temps to warm back up to the mid and upper 80s tomorrow.
With high pressure situated over the Great Lakes region that stretches southwest into the central U.
/13 (Now through Friday) An upper level north to northwest flow pattern will continue to maintain clear skies and dry conditions across the area with building high pressure at the surface through Friday. Well below seasonal temps continue with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast.
Looking aloft, we have a pair of upper lows over the western CONUS, and a trough along the East Coast which is drawing Ian north. In addition, persistent surface ridging extends from the Great Lakes south to the TX Gulf Coast, blocking the return of Gulf moisture. We've had some cooling at H85 from the east/northeast since yesterday, as a wave dove down the back side of the eastern CONUS trough. Thus, highs today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday.
1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge will remain over the region today as an upper trough over WA/OR this morning moves across ID today and into WY Friday. As the trough moves east the 500mb heights will fall across NM and TX Friday.
128 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Aviation Forecast concerns are minimal today as a large area of high pressure is moving overhead. Given some sunshine, highs will be a bit warmer today.
Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to breezier south to southeast winds this afternoon coupled with stronger daytime heating. Northwest flow aloft and weak leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to warm temperatures and breezy south to southeast winds.
Expect temperatures will climb a few more degrees with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
1125 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over and near the higher terrain. Dry air with weak instability in place will limit precip development today, though westerly flow ushering in some weak mid level impulses will support development over the higher terrain. While an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out anywhere across the higher terrain, slightly higher focus will be across the Continental Divide. Lee troughing in place today will help to support increasing winds/gusts over the southeast plains.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Friday Night/ North Texas will be just east of stronger mid level ridging and under the broad outer influence of large scale flow around Tropical Storm Ian. This has sent a weak backdoor front into the region this morning and is resulting in cooler and drier air. Other than some elevated grass fire threat across the region given the low humidity, no significant weather is expected through Friday.
1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of an upper level high pressure system, and dry atmospheric conditions (PWAT values below normal), during the period, per deterministic NWP model output.
A band of moderate to heavy rainfall has developed on the northern flank of the low from the Central Panhandle Mountains to the northern Idaho Palouse to Coeur d'Alene Area. /SVH 18Z TAFS: Low pressure will slowly drift from between KPUW to KGEG/KSFF in eastern WA this morning into western MT by this evening. A deformation band forming along the northern flank of the low will produce periods of moderate rain from KMLP to across the Spokane corridor into the afternoon.
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Today through Friday) An upper level ridge from northeastern Mexico to the southern Plains and a lower level ridge off to our northeast persist in the short term. Due to strong subsidence under the ridging and the dry airmass, no rain is expected with mostly clear skies.
(This evening through Friday Night) Influence under the upper level ridge situated over Texas and New Mexico holds steady through the evening allowing for clear skies to prevail. Reinforced northeasterly winds will continue as Tropical Storm Ian tightens the pressure gradient across the deep south by exiting off the Space Coast of FL and clashing with a ridge situated over the GLR. Overnight Friday into the weekend, lows will follow the warmer theme as they sit in the low to mid 50s, a few degrees warmer than expected this evening.
The current expectation is for another quiet overnight period, with temperatures in the low-50s across the eastern CWA and upper-50s out west.
focus will be on an upper level low pressure area that is forecast to be over southeast Idaho by the end of the day and nearly stationary during the night. During the overnight hours, the better moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere and better jet support ahead of the upper low remains west and northwest of our area so will be keeping a dry forecast going. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40s to around 50 in far eastern Colorado to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.
1106 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 We are looking at one more warm day for a large part of south-east Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ broad and flat upper level ridging remaining intact just ahead of a vigorous short wave trough currently digging into the Intermountain West. However, the latest model trends have been considerably cooler w/ daytime highs for today as cloud cover should rapidly increase this afternoon as increasingly difluent, moist southwesterly flow aloft spreads over the region. Friday could be a more interesting convective day with significant linear forcing both at the surface and aloft, and upwards of 40 knots of deep layer shear oriented parallel to the cold front.
The surface and upper level pattern leads to dry weather through the short term with high pressure and ridging in control of the area. Additionally, likely see temperatures fall back to either side of 40 degrees tonight, which is just a little bit warmer than last night and likely points to a lesser chance for frost, but this will need to be monitored again. The pattern in the long resembles a little bit of a rex block with the tropical system moving onshore and spinning in the southeastern CONUS for a number of days with an area of high pressure to its north and west.
Seasonal, fall-like weather will continue as broad upper level ridging persists. Overnight lows tonight will be quite chilly again, dropping into the low to mid 40s, but NBM has been keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw this morning, so not expecting much frost potential.
There is a high pressure centered over MI that expands clear to the western Gulf Coast. With northerly flow calming down, look for a slight rebound of warmer temps.
A weak mid/upper ridge axis is generally over portions of the Great Lakes extending into the southern plains. This general pattern will support slightly warmer than normal temps from this afternoon through the weekend. Like mentioned before, general upper ridging will remain in place through the weekend.