Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
127 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 High pressure will build along the eastern seaboard resulting in a warming trend that lasts through the middle of the week.
1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (This evening through Monday) On Monday, the upper level ridge is forecast to shift east, becoming centered across the Southeast United States.
339 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 High pressure will build along the eastern seaboard resulting in a warming trend that lasts through the middle of the week. Patchy low clouds/fog early this morning as low level moisture lingers behind cold frontal passage. High pressure and a drier air mass will build across the region today and bring mainly sunny skies, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. A warm front will lift towards the Southern Tier late Tuesday Night and a light rain shower north of this front is possible.
Upper level ridging remains in full control of the near term forecast becoming centered over the southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure continues to be in place across the wester Atlantic, gradually building into the southeastern U.
An upper ridge will continue to build into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians the next 24 hours. Can not rule out an isolated storm to develop over southwest Virginia and northern half of Tennessee as weak impulses may ride southeast on the top of the upper ridge but confidence is too low to include. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 97 74 98 / 20 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 75 96 75 97 / 30 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 94 75 98 74 98 / 30 20 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 70 94 71 96 / 30 20 20 10 30.
It could be much warmer across southern MN if the warm front can begin lifting north sooner. This complex of storms will keep the main warm front to the south, and areas along it should see highs in the 90s, while areas to the north remain cool and possibly overcast.
154 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a trough over the west coast, a ridge over the central states, and several large clusters of thunderstorms moving through the northern plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary separates high pressure to the north from low pressure to the south. As the upper trough swings into the northern/central Rockies today, potential vorticity advection will increase, and a cold front will approach our area. Northern and western parts of the area, affected first by the cold front, will remain cooler/drier, with highs only in the 70s. Nonetheless, expecting some thunderstorms to spark along the cold front mid- afternoon across northeastern WY/southeastern MT/northwestern SD.
During the daytime today 500mb ridging amplifies along with warm advection with 16C at 700mb advecting into eastern ND by this evening as the robust upper low deepens and organizes over the northern Rockies along the MT Canadian border. Along the northward moving elevated warm front scattered pulsing showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with temps in the 70s and 80s.
Warm temps are nosing into the area this afternoon under sunny skies and the longwave ridge building across the Great Plains. Convection developing over the higher terrain of Colorado and Wyoming is producing some supercellular storms now. As the ridge axis passes overhead on Monday, temps will peak at or above 100 for the majority of the area. It'll be cooler north on Tuesday as a cold front sags through the Great Plains.
"Cooler" midweek with dry conditions. Will need to watch portions of the Highway 14 corridor for wake low winds, as high easterly winds have been observed further west. Currently indications point to dew points along a slowly northeastward advancing warm front to climb into the low to even middle 70s. TONIGHT: An advancing cold front reaches the western CWA after midnight tonight. TUESDAY: The latest guidance slides the cold front into northwest Iowa by daybreak Tuesday. Temperatures warm into the lower 80s further west by the afternoon.
Temperatures Monday will be a little cooler and winds will become even stronger with dangerous fire weather conditions developing across all of northern Arizona.
1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Tonight) The vast ridge across the ArkLaTex region will slowly shift eastward tonight. Dry conditions are anticipated to persist through the night, however a few models are showing a weak disturbance rounding the ridge and bringing a few showers to NE AL after 09Z. Temps are currently in the 80s (20Z) and lows will only reach the low/mid 70s with muggy dewpoints in the 70s sticking around through the night.
353 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Strong south to southwest winds can be expected today as a deep upper level trough approaches the central and northern plains.
Passing showers will be east of the ridges by mid-morning, followed by dry conditions the remainder of the day as warm air aloft keeps a lid on any convection. An incoming pattern of nwly aloft coincident with favorable jet ascent and an incoming surface cold front could contribute to steep lapse rates throughout the column.
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Today and tonight: Anomalous upper ridging centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will amplify today as a potent trough lifts through the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains.
A strong upper ridge prevails across the region. A 595dm upper ridge will be centered over the region with dangerously hot and humid conditions continuing. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will lower heat index values a bit though conditions will still be very uncomfortable.
/Issued 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ /Through Monday Night/ The upper ridge center will shift eastward slightly today, shaving a couple degrees off of high temperatures compared to the weekend. Mid-level ridging will result in minimal variations in temperature day-to-day, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 90s to low 100s and morning lows in the 70s. By late week, the mid-level ridge will shift back to the west, centering itself over the Southern Plains.
Passing showers will be east of the ridges by mid-morning, followed by dry conditions the remainder of the day as warm air aloft keeps a lid on any convection. Tuesday will mark the beginning of several days of hot, muggy weather as a large ridge builds over the eastern CONUS.
Discussion: The upper ridge centered to our west will continue to build east during the period. If the MCS does make it into our area then convective coverage may be significant, but for now think slight chance to low chance PoPs look reasonable with the highest chance north. There is potential for the current forecast highs to be too low if there is less convection and cloud cover, but right now it appears temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s and that heat index values will reach the the mid 90s to near 104 with the highest values being south.
WV imagery this morning was showing a broad upper ridge stretching across the central CONUS with several embedded impulses lifting on the front side over western KS and NE aiding with ongoing isolated convection. A cold front moving through will be the focus for another round of convection beginning Tuesday night.
Overall we are still in southwest flow aloft as shown on water vapor imagery with a trof over the west coast. A cold front will set up just to the northwest of the area and will drift southeast and then stall across our area some time later in the day.
/NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ The upper ridge center will shift eastward slightly today, shaving a couple degrees off of high temperatures compared to the weekend. /Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain situated between a strong upper ridge to our east (centered over the Tennessee Valley) and an upper trough to our west to start the period. This pattern will result in a strong lee-Rockies cyclone at the surface, which will maintain a tight pressure gradient across Texas and the Southern Plains through mid week.
259 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 High pressure and strong upper-level ridging builds in from the west into the middle of this week with hot temperatures expected.
1028 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This evening through Monday) Models in good agreement with high amplitude upper troughs passing over the northern and central portions of the CONUS tonight and tomorrow, with mid and upper level ridge settling a little farther east tomorrow. A few CAMS still want to bring elevated storms toward extreme northwest Oklahoma, on the southern periphery of forcing from s/wv trough moving across the central Rockies.
1241 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Isolated showers will end overnight in the wake of a cold front, with patchy fog.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will move slightly further east into the Mississippi Valley today, allowing for temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to yesterday's highs.
125 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Hot and mostly dry high pressure will prevail into late week before a cold front likely impacts the region this weekend. Unseasonably strong ridging aloft will persist this period, slowly sliding east toward the southern Appalachians with time.
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Well that recent and much needed rain in the soil is holding and it's not so bad on air temps with a big range and many current heat index readings still only in the low one hundreds for portions of the four state area. Current air temp readings range in the lower 90s for most areas north of I-20 except in Texas where dew points have mixed out a bit more.
316 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a stout trough positioned over the PNW and the northern Rockies; this was a catalyst for storm development last night across portions of western Kansas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, there is a strong upper ridge extending from northern Mexico to the Tennessee Valley, which has been influencing much warmer temperatures across the region over the past couple of days. For today, the upper ridge will be more dominate across the region helping to promote temperatures rising into the upper 90s to mid 100s this afternoon.
Heat indices today will flirt with or be just under advisory levels as high pressure continues to build across the area. The upper level trough of last week, which added plenty of moisture to an already moist southwest flow, will finally lift out of the area. High pressure will begin to settle over the area today.
238 AM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Low pressure will keep breezes and cooler temperatures around today.
Heading into the afternoon, the upper level ridge will continue to build with high temperatures warming well into the upper 80s. Flow aloft around 50 to 70 knots with the MCS tracking on the southside of the jet will cross the ridge and dive southeast into the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. In the wake of the complex, a saturated environment will be left with clearing skies and soaring temperatures into the daytime under a dominant upper level ridge.
616 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions are expected today, as a strong upper ridge axis becomes centered over the central TN Valley. High pressure at the sfc also remains located east of the area across the central/southern Atlantic Coasts, which is thereby helping to usher moisture below H7 into much of the region from the S/SW. With dew pts in the lower/mid 70s, max heat indices also look to climb into the 103-107F range.
Gusty winds will lingering today ahead of a cold front moving southeast through northern Nevada. The cold front will continue south through the Mojave Desert tonight. Broad trough will progress east through the Great Basin today. Meanwhile, cold front pushing south through central Nevada will shift winds from the northwest from Bishop east to Caliente. Cold front will sweep south through the remainder of southern Nevada, eastern California and northwest Arizona tonight. Northerly winds continue through Tuesday, especially within the lower Colorado River Valley.
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will move slightly further east into the Mississippi Valley today, allowing for temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to yesterday's highs.
A weakened ridge axis stretching west across the Keys and South Florida will lift northward and strengthen today, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes by tonight.
/issued 412 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid to upper ridging centered over the Tennessee Valley and a weak inverted trough over northeast Mexico will dominate the weather pattern through the short term.
Temperatures begin to trend cooler this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies and a cold frontal passage that will shift winds around to the west.
This trough will eventually shift to the east and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure late Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will then begin to move into the region from the eastern Pacific Tuesday night with skies clearing and winds decreasing. Some high mountain valleys could see some near freezing temperatures and frost Monday and Tuesday night. The flood watch for the lower Grande River will continue as runoff over will continue over the next couple of days as the river drainage continue to process the recent rains.
Upper level ridging will allow for significant warm air advection into the region through this afternoon. For Tuesday, a slight shift in the weather pattern returns as a developing low pressure system moves across northern Nebraska and into South Dakota. This low will drag a cold front across the region, but precipitation will be nearly non-existent with the front. Any precipitation will be across northern Nebraska associated with wrap around moisture in the low pressure system. However, while lacking precipitation, the front will usher in some cooler temperatures for Tuesday. The next chance of some showers or thunderstorms will be on Tuesday evening as short wave trough moves through Nebraska.
/TW/ Today and tonight: Anomalous upper ridging centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will amplify today as a potent trough lifts through the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains.
419 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Drizzle has been falling from the low clouds east of the Black Hills, so have added mention in the forecast through mid-morning. Upper-level analysis shows a trough over the west coast, a ridge over the central states, and several large clusters of thunderstorms moving through the northern plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary separates high pressure to the north from low pressure to the south. As the upper trough swings into the northern/central Rockies today, potential vorticity advection will increase, and a cold front will approach our area. Northern and western parts of the area, affected first by the cold front, will remain cooler/drier, with highs only in the 70s. Nonetheless, expecting some thunderstorms to spark along the cold front mid- afternoon across northeastern WY/southeastern MT/northwestern SD.
The overnight hours have seen quite a bit of severe convection across parts of this CWA as a s/w trough in southwest mid-lvl flow transitioned across the region and a low- lvl jet kicked in with it's nose punching up into our southern and eastern zones. From the low, a cold front stretches back to the southwest across portions of SW SD and NW NE. 700mb temperatures of at least +12C or warmer are already transitioning in behind that aforementioned convection across our west. Toward later this evening and going into the overnight, the cap will begin to erode across parts of central SD as a sfc cold front shifts east. Tuesday will feature a cooler and drier air mass transitioning into the forecast area. An upper low will be moving northeast into Canada early in the period.
643 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 High pressure will build along the eastern seaboard resulting in a warming trend that lasts through the middle of the week. Patchy low clouds/fog early this morning as low level moisture lingers behind cold frontal passage. High pressure and a drier air mass will build across the region today and bring mainly sunny skies, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. A warm front will lift towards the Southern Tier late Tuesday Night and a light rain shower north of this front is possible.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid to upper ridging centered over the Tennessee Valley and a weak inverted trough over northeast Mexico will dominate the weather pattern through the short term.
240 AM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Dry and warmer weather returns through mid-week. Another weather system will bring cooler weather and a chance of mountain showers by the end of the week.
Prevailing southwest flow will drive our afternoon temps up to the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland.
527 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Drizzle has been falling from the low clouds east of the Black Hills, so have added mention in the forecast through mid-morning. Upper-level analysis shows a trough over the west coast, a ridge over the central states, and several large clusters of thunderstorms moving through the northern plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary separates high pressure to the north from low pressure to the south. As the upper trough swings into the northern/central Rockies today, potential vorticity advection will increase, and a cold front will approach our area. Northern and western parts of the area, affected first by the cold front, will remain cooler/drier, with highs only in the 70s. Nonetheless, expecting some thunderstorms to spark along the cold front mid- afternoon across northeastern WY/southeastern MT/northwestern SD.
1029 AM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A cold front will stall out near the Mason Dixon Line today. An upper ridge building to our west will help temperatures will get very warm in the middle of the week, but storms are still possible almost each day until a cold front passes through late in the week. High pressure should provide a fair and dry weekend. Otherwise fair and seasonable conditions are expected this afternoon thanks to high pressure and a drier air mass build southeast into Pa. However, central Pa will remain in ring of fire on the eastern periphery of upper ridge, so can't rule out scattered additional convection either late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
616 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will be moving east today, allowing temperatures to fall a few degrees. South winds will be increasing today as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Lows tonight fall a couple degrees, into the lower to mid 70s, with mixing from surface winds keeping temperatures up.
Today, a trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest and deepening into a cutoff low, which will break our connection to the atmospheric river. The low center will track across west central Montana today, which will leave northwest Montana in the best position for wrap around moisture tonight through Tuesday. The digging trough is also bringing much colder air with it, which means the mountains will see some new snow over the next couple of days.
Strong south to southwest winds can be expected today as a deep upper level trough approaches the central and northern plains.
637 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a stout trough positioned over the PNW and the northern Rockies; this was a catalyst for storm development last night across portions of western Kansas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, there is a strong upper ridge extending from northern Mexico to the Tennessee Valley, which has been influencing much warmer temperatures across the region over the past couple of days. For today, the upper ridge will be more dominate across the region helping to promote temperatures rising into the upper 90s to mid 100s this afternoon.
Cooler today with high temperatures around five degrees below normal for this time of year.
A deep-layer ridge axis extends through much of the Mississippi River Valley, with mid-level anticyclonic flow situated near the ArkLaMiss where H5 heights are ~594 decameters. This mid-level anticyclone will slowly shift east today, keeping mid-level flow out of the northeast for awhile, but shifting flow more to the east by tomorrow. With afternoon temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, excessive heat conditions are expected. Continued hot and muggy conditions are forecast tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. PoPs have increased to account for diurnally-driven convection despite weak flow and ridging. It appears the ridge could center right over Central Alabama tomorrow, with elevated tropospheric moisture "trapped" inside. Given the flow around the ridge, we could have storms entering the area from the east.
The mid level high pressure bubble that has plagued the area with heat is slowly moving eastward into the southeast US. This is allowing the Panhandles to see southwest flow aloft as the next trough moves into the Great Basin region today. RFTI values will generally be 2 to 5 with the highest values in the north in Cimarron County.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Monday Night/ The upper ridge center will shift eastward slightly today, shaving a couple degrees off of high temperatures compared to the weekend. Mid-level ridging will result in minimal variations in temperature day-to-day, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 90s to low 100s and morning lows in the 70s. By late week, the mid-level ridge will shift back to the west, centering itself over the Southern Plains.
1007 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 10AM UPDATE: The center of a low pressure system is currently transversing our CWA. Temperatures begin to trend cooler this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies and a cold frontal passage that will shift winds around to the west.
08Z water vapor imagery showed upper troughs over the Pacific Northwest and north of the New England states while broad upper level ridges stretched from the southwest across the lower MS river valley. At the surface, a general area of low pressure was noted across the western central plains with high pressure generally east of the MS river. As for more elevated precip developing today or tonight, models keep any theta-e advection to the north and east of the forecast area along with the nose of the low level jet.
SW-NE 700mb theta-E ridge is present once again, so do think a few updrafts will survive long enough for thunder to occur. Otherwise, convective development could once again occur due to strong surface heating and/or surface convergence along the lee trough.
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will be moving east today, allowing temperatures to fall a few degrees. South winds will be increasing today as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Lows tonight fall a couple degrees, into the lower to mid 70s, with mixing from surface winds keeping temperatures up.
The cold trough and low pressure system, for this time of the year, will wrap moisture into northwest Montana tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures are already dropping in the high terrain with snow being observed at 6000 feet this afternoon.
An upper ridge building to our west will help temperatures will get very warm in the middle of the week, but an afternoon thunderstorm is still possible almost each day until a cold front passes through late in the week. High pressure should provide a fair and dry weekend. Still, central PA remains in ring of fire on the eastern periphery of upper ridge, so can't rule out scattered additional convection either late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, high pressure also builds over the area.
Low pressure in Montana and southern Canada will swing a trough through to trigger these and yet another trough on Tue to continue a threat of thunderstorms. The trough for today is kicking up wind, which has been just barely reaching the Wind Advisory threshold, so will keep it out for the final six hours. Beyond Tue, high pressure begins to dominate the weather pattern in the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Temperatures in the lower and middle 30s are possible Tue night, which will threaten Frost Advisory criteria.