Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As anticipated, showers developed along the associated surface cold front as PWATs increased to 100 to 125% of the climatological normal for mid January. Temperatures have trended 3 to 6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday and, as skies clear due to subsident dry air moving in behind the cold front, overnight lows tonight will drop 6 to 12 degrees from what was recorded last night. An exception to the significant clearing will be across the lower valleys of northwest Colorado and the Gunnison Valley where patchy fog is still on track to develop tonight as Bufkit soundings show a saturated profile beneath the inversion. Saturday will see dry northwest flow persist aloft as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Four Corners area.
Winds will become breezy across the area Saturday through Saturday night as high pressure scoots off to the southeast, and a trough works towards the area leading to a tightening pressure gradient. A warm frontal boundary ahead of the trough will pass through the region Saturday resulting in a return to above average temperatures. Highs will range from the mid 20s east to the low 40s southwest, with lows Saturday night mostly in the 20s, although will likely reach the teens in portions of the James River Valley. To start the period, a ridge sits over the southwestern US with a lowly amplified trough over southeastern Canada and into the Great Lakes region. This trough will rapidly dig down into the southeastern US.
448 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 Aviation Section Updated High temperatures in wake of the cold front will rise into the 30s to near 40 today, with increasing southwest to west winds over the plains of Central and North Central Montana this evening and into the day on Saturday.
The low pressure system associated with yesterday's frontal passage is currently situated off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Sloppy high pressure will settle across the area tonight as the expansive low pressure system in the western Atlantic continue to move off to the northeast. Cooler temperatures will also be possible across the Upper Keys due to the northerly-wind- induced cold air drainage off of South Florida. Another cold front will approach the Keys on Saturday night, and winds will increase overnight in response.
An upper ridge will build over the area the next several days bringing mild air back to the region. But the upper flow will pivot to the NW Saturday Night and allow a couple cold fronts to move through the area.
At the surface, sub-freezing temperatures have crept into the northern CWA, with areas above freezing still being able to get snow as far south as David City, Fremont, Tekamah, and Columbus. Lowered CC values in radar imagery has helped signal the lowering melting layer, with that trend expected to continue for areas south of the Omaha area. 5 km, snow could transition to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain during this time. Snow should regain it's footing after the freezing rain/drizzle moves south.
422 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about every other day. Potent upper trough and associated frontal boundary is surging back south, with modified arctic air advecting back into the area via gusty NW winds. Have trimmed the high wind warning to the plains just east of the Black Hills where terrain squeezing will continue for a couple more hours and have opted for an adv the remainder of the old warning area, as flow is progged to quickly wane this afternoon.
Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about every other day. Potent upper trough and associated frontal boundary is surging back south, with modified arctic air advecting back into the area via gusty NW winds. Have trimmed the high wind warning to the plains just east of the Black Hills where terrain squeezing will continue for a couple more hours and have opted for an adv the remainder of the old warning area, as flow is progged to quickly wane this afternoon.
The low pressure center of this clipper system is roughly near KOMA and will continue driving SSE to near KMCI by this evening on its way to the ArkLaTex region by daybreak Saturday morning. Skies will gradually clear out overnight through Saturday as arctic high pressure arrives from the northeast and quickly slides across the region Saturday.
Expect periods of mid and high clouds passing across the area this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. Other areas will see lighter winds on Saturday along with cooler temperatures that are expected to top out slightly warmer than seasonal averages.
That will mean highs on the lower deserts in the upper 60s to low 70s. An upper low centered west of northern Baja Mexico has been producing considerable cloudiness over the region which is starting to decrease from the north early this afternoon. The wave is sliding down the east side of a ridge that has an axis over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada (Rex block pattern).
/issued 238 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/ Strong wind is expected much of the upcoming 24 hours as our region will be in the southwest and western quadrant of a deepening low pressure system moving from South Dakota into southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas this time tomorrow. A strong cold front was diving southward through the region this afternoon being pushed by 3-hour surface pressure rises as much as 8 to 10 millibars aimed mainly through the southeast Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains. The airmass will dry at all levels overnight into Saturday on the back side of the deepening upper low. RMcQueen Winds will finally be on a downward trend by tomorrow night as the deepening upper low moves eastward across the Mississippi River Valley.
The cold front has moved through the forecast area and the temperatures have started falling for many locations. As temperatures fall off, if there is any precipitation still falling, there could be a little more collecting and freezing on surfaces. Even with sunshine in the afternoon, temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for most of the area.
The highest amounts will be across west-central Illinois with much lesser amounts further east. The highest snow totals are still expected near the lower Illinois River Valley with amounts dropping off sharply to the east. Overall, changes to the forecast have been fairly minor this evening Surface analysis this afternoon depicts an area of low pressure situated over the Texas panhandle. This will continue to work east today, positioning itself near the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and then across the Deep South come Saturday as a strong upper wave dives south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Further north across the local area, the axis of an inverted trough is approaching the region with WAA and isentropic lift noted out ahead of it.
203 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 High temperatures in wake of the cold front will rise into the 30s to near 40 today, with increasing southwest to west winds over the plains of Central and North Central Montana this evening and into the day on Saturday.
All that being said, forecast low temperatures late tonight into early tomorrow morning remain in the low to mid-40s.
A rex blocking pattern remains across the west bringing a period of fair weather for the silver state. A rex blocking pattern has set up across the west with the ridge component taking a firm hold across the silver state.
435 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough passing from north to south over central and ern NM. N-nely wind shift associated with a strong cold front has reached the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mts as well as far south as KROW at 23Z.
Freezing fog is possible as well. A ridge of high pressure will rebound across the region while lower level moisture remains trapped within the Snake River Plain supporting a continuation of low clouds and fog.
A low pressure system passing through the Four Corners will bring gusty northeast winds and colder temperatures into Saturday.
811 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 For the latest ESTF update, based on the current obs around the area, have decided to cancel the High Wind Warning. then southeastward into the lower MS River Valley (Sat-Sat night). the High Wind Warning expiration time (06Z / 11 pm MST) appears to be on track. Sat-Sat night: Expect weakening northerly winds and a clearing trend assoc/w pronounced synoptic subsidence -- as the amplifying upper wave and associated surface cyclone depart to the southeast.
Large and strong high pressure (1043+ MB) over northeastern Ontario early this morning, with temperatures around -35 F. Although, with our old and limited snow cover around, could see temps perhaps a couple degrees warmer. The lack of snow pack around also leads to some uncertainty to mins tonight, as a favorable radiating night sets up with pronounced surface ridging from the weakening Arctic high.
1241 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 Aviation - Dry and cold through the weekend - An area of high pressure that has drifted down from the Canadian Prairies will move into the Great Lakes region this weekend.
Nly flow will relax as the ridging influence weakens and even some SEly flow will develop over the Srn portion of the CWA. This should amount to slightly cooler temps on Sat than what we saw today. The high cloudiness is masking the developing ST/Fog emanating from the Nrn SJV. HREF IFR progs maintain the higher low cloud/VSBY probabilities E of I-5 and mainly in the Nrn SJV zone and then up towards KMYV.
1025 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough passing from north to south over central and ern NM. Cold front has reached the east slopes of the central chain and occasional terrain obscurations in MVFR cigs persist over ne and east central NM through 10Z before diminishing.
846 PM PST Fri Jan 14 2022 Building high pressure over the Great Basin will fuel gusty Santa Ana winds along the coastal slopes and below the passes and wind- prone canyons.
120 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Water vapor shows transitory upper ridge crossing the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next wave over BC/ALTA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with warm advection ongoing in our western zones. Transitory upper ridge will move through the Northern Plains today, with warm front lifting through and pushing highs back into the 40s to near 50 for all but our far eastern zones.
Satellite imagery showing fog and stratus developing in the lower valleys.
1012 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 For the latest ESTF update, based on the current obs around the area, have decided to cancel the High Wind Warning. then southeastward into the lower MS River Valley (Sat-Sat night). the High Wind Warning expiration time (06Z / 11 pm MST) appears to be on track. Sat-Sat night: Expect weakening northerly winds and a clearing trend assoc/w pronounced synoptic subsidence -- as the amplifying upper wave and associated surface cyclone depart to the southeast.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 36 39 25 36 / 50 90 90 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 35 38 25 33 / 30 90 100 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 35 38 25 34 / 30 90 90 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 35 25 30 / 20 80 90 80 30 NC.
High temperatures in wake of the cold front will rise into the 30s to near 40 today, with increasing southwest to west winds over the plains of Central and North Central Montana this evening and into the day on Saturday.
Snow amounts have been on the low side, generally 3 to 5 inches, with some isolated higher amounts.
Also made adjustments to the patchy fog to be confined to where the low clouds are at this time. VFR conditions will prevail initially, then areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog/freezing fog will develop over the inland valleys, especially west of the Cascades, late tonight. The lower conditions will clear to VFR by Saturday afternoon. A thermal trough near the coast will weaken Saturday night.
Although some lake effect clouds have spilled into the area from Lake Michigan just after midnight, mostly clear skies are still expected by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. Depending on how long the precipitation lingers in the afternoon, there is the potential for a short period of freezing drizzle as drying aloft moves in and ice is lost in the clouds.
Low pressure, stronger at the upper-levels than the surface and cut- off from the main jet stream is spinning off the California coast to our south. Particularly, Schoolhouse Peak and mountain ridges around Lake County are gusting over 30 mph this morning. Lighter ridgetop winds are expected tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. A strong ridge of upper-level high pressure surrounding the aforementioned upper low will remain in place along the West Coast through the weekend. However, the large scale pattern will otherwise persist, with that ridge keeping storm systems well to our north, with deeper moisture and heavy precipitation focused mainly toward British Columbia.
Winter weather is continuing early this morning, with the highest intensity snow located along and south of Interstate 80.
Well above average highs in the low to upper 50s will be possible across our area. Low pressure aloft will continue to deepen as it digs southward across the central Plains and Kansas overnight. Snow will be most persistent over far southeast Kansas into Saturday, though another arm of light to moderate snow/blowing snow with the strong north winds will wrap around the low, affecting central Kansas during the predawn hours of early Saturday morning and into south central Kansas through the morning and early afternoon on Saturday.
Snow amounts have been tweaked downward in most areas east of Highway 65 due to warmer air in the warm sector delaying the change over to snow in this region.
Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will continue to slide through the region, resulting in dying winds in a weakening surface pressure gradient. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this will be most likely in the higher elevations of MN where winds will be strongest due to the topography and winds also increasing aloft. Above normal temperatures will persist for the first part of the week as upper level ridging nudges eastward into the region.
559 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (Today and tonight) A mid level cyclone continues to make its way southward across central KS early this morning. On the immediate backside of the low, however, a lobe of mid level moisture and light snowfall is making its way into western KS. By mid day as the cyclone moves over SE OK the far western extent of a trowal will result in some light snowfall occuring along and east of I-35. Widespread stratus will keep max temperatures well below avg behind the cold front, with subfreezing conditions present across the eastern 2/3 of our FA. Expect overnight lows in the low teens along and north of I-44, with colder temps present wherever there's some snowpack.
325 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Closed upper low was located over central KS, with an upstream ridge axis from southern Canada into the northern Great Basin. Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for BRX beginning at 5 AM this morning and continuing until 11 PM this evening. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for ARL valid from 11 AM this morning until 8 AM Sunday morning.
We will remain under a ridge of high pressure over the weekend with a cut off low currently over SoCal.
This afternoon moisture moving across the ridge will likely create light showers in northwest Montana and potentially into the mountains of west-central Montana, little to no accumulation is expected. Freezing drizzle is possible but low probability in northwest Montana, which could create slick spots.
High pressure across the region will allow for dry and quiet conditions for the Silver State to persist through the next few days. A rex blocking pattern will continue to bring quiescent conditions to much of the state through the weekend. Lows will drop into the lower teens in some northern valleys with 20s farther west and south.
An upper low over Kansas early this morning will drop into the southern Plains today, then shift east across the Deep South tonight and Sunday. And that paired with relatively warm ground temperatures and surface temperatures slow to drop below freezing, should result in a much better outcome for the region that what some models were suggesting just a couple of days ago. Far southern sections of Calloway, Trigg, Christian, and Todd Counties could see 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation, and that stands a slightly better chance of posing minor travel impacts, especially on untreated roads, with surface temperatures near or just below the freezing mark.
Broad upper ridging starts to nudge in through the day, bringing a surface warm front with it which will lead to a rebound in temperatures. This will mean highs in the lower 20s over the James River Valley, the upper 20s to mid 30s north and central, and into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the southwest. Expect overnight lows to range from the lower teens over the southern James River Valley to the 20s elsewhere. Modest pressure rises and steep low level lapse rates will lead to some gusty winds out of the northwest Sunday afternoon with the strongest gusts generally confined to the higher terrain around the South Dakota border.
211 AM PST Sat Jan 15 2022 An area of low pressure will move northward up the California coast bringing a chance of light precipitation to southwest Kern County today.
* Cooler than normal conditions continue through the weekend.
700 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure centered across Ontario/Quebec will make for cold conditions in the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains Saturday into Sunday.
Some light freezing rain or drizzle was reported with this feature across central KS. Warm ground temperatures led to significant melting this evening, but temperatures are well below freezing now, so any additional snow should accumulate, especially on untreated surfaces.
400 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Closed upper low was located over central KS, with an upstream ridge axis from southern Canada into the northern Great Basin. Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for BRX beginning at 5 AM this morning and continuing until 11 PM this evening. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for ARL valid from 11 AM this morning until 8 AM Sunday morning.
High pressure begins to build into Wisconsin today from Ontario. As this high pressure builds into the state, the drier air will gradually confine the lake effect snow showers to the lakeshore counties. These multi-banded, short fetched lake effect showers are more susceptible to synoptic changes, so as the high pressure moves in these showers should weaken. The chance for some light snow will return Sunday afternoon and evening as another trough approaches the Great Lakes Region. As the trough swings through the northern Great Lakes Region, a cold front will be dragged across the state. The chance for snow showers will be mostly contained to along and ahead of the cold front.
We will go ahead with a wind advisory surrounding the High Wind Warning with the far northwest and west advisory and warning free. Upper level low getting organized over south-central Kansas will drop southward into Oklahoma today. The models do not mix the low levels of the atmosphere very far in this post-frontal environment therefore, the stronger winds up around 700 mph will not likely make it to the ground. However, given the added sunshine today, if the lower levels mix a little more than the models anticipate, then some stronger winds will be possible and they would then cover a larger area as well. Winds will diminish late this afternoon and they will turn to more southerly before a weak cold front moves through Sunday morning and early afternoon which will turn the winds back around to the north.
Upper level ridging, along with some warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures into the area today with highs reaching the upper 20s, to the low 30s over the limited snow cover areas in the western CWA. Low level winds will increase tonight, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. Slightly cooler, or stronger surface winds would yield more widespread blowing snow issues. in the models has not changed much from model run to model run with mean upper level ridging along the west coast and upper level troughing over the eastern U.
These will dissipate by this evening as the air moderates, and we end up under some ridging in between the main system that will be SE of the area, and the next wave that will come in from the NW Sunday night.
The aforementioned closed low will continue to progress southward throughout the day, moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley towards sunset, which will continue to enhance the magnitude of the mid-level height gradient as the 850 mb and 500 mb jet streams become coupled over the CWA after sunrise. Sunday morning will be cold, with low temperatures ranging from the lower teens to the lower 20s from the extreme southern Texas Panhandle southward into the southern South and Rolling Plains, respectively. Northwest flow aloft will become established on Sunday as an upper level ridge remains stationed to our west. Surface lee troughing will also strengthen across eastern New Mexico on Sunday leading to breezy westerly winds which will help to boost temperatures back into the 60's. A weak cold front will then move through the forecast area Sunday night.
708 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 Polar high pressure settles farther south into Lower MI today and then overhead in SE MI tonight. Large and strong high pressure (1043+ MB) over northeastern Ontario early this morning, with temperatures around -35 F. Although, with our old and limited snow cover around, could see temps perhaps a couple degrees warmer. The lack of snow pack around also leads to some uncertainty to mins tonight, as a favorable radiating night sets up with pronounced surface ridging from the weakening Arctic high.
Models have upper ridging moving into the CWA today. Will make sure there are fairly decent downsloping winds for the high mountains and foothills later this evening and tonight. For temperatures, today's highs are progged to be 1-2 C warmer than yesterday's daytime highs were. For Sunday, dry weather will persist along the periphery of the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin. There is a weak short wave dropping southeast across the Northern Plains States, which will push a weak cold front across the plains.
914 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure keeps Saturday mostly dry, with a front approaching from the south late day.
422 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Water vapor shows transitory upper ridge crossing the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next wave over BC/ALTA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with warm advection ongoing in our western zones. Transitory upper ridge will move through the Northern Plains today, with warm front lifting through and pushing highs back into the 40s to near 50 for all but our far eastern zones.
As this trough starts to exit the area, a ridge of high pressure will start to slowly push it ways eastward over the Pueblo forecast area. With the exiting trough and expanding ridge, subsidence will increase across the region during the day. The eastern plains will range from within the upper 30s to the low 40s, though places closer to the eastern mountains may reach into the mid 40s given some compressional warming taking place. Tonight: Heading into the overnight hours, the ridge of high pressure will continue to slowly expand over the southern Colorado region.
Ridging aloft leads to temperatures slightly above normal for most during the day.
(Today and tonight) Cooler, but dry and windy conditions are expected today in the wake of the overnight cold front.