Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Weakening mid level ridging across the area gives way to troughiness down the state by Sun as a short wave trough over GA and north FL is reinforced by a more robust short wave trough moving out of the lower Mississippi Valley. The axis of broad Atlantic high pressure through south-central FL to the Gulf of Mexico eases south. Broad mid level troughing remains above the area with the possibility of a low forming over the northern Gulf toward the end of the week. At the surface the area will primarily be dominated by Atlantic high pressure ridging westward. A frontal trough settles down along the Gulf coast by early to mid week then stalls there.
Cooler and drier conditions will finally return for the first half of this coming week with highs in the low to mid 80s and much lower humidity.
As the low pressure over the Pacific Northwest begins to make its way eastward, spokes of energy will push over the region causing nocturnal convection. A cold front associated with this low makes its way through the Northern Rockies on Sunday.
/issued 807 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019/ Mid level ridging aloft FL will continue to weaken today as a short wave trough lingers over GA and north FL. The axis of broad Atlantic high pressure through central FL to the Gulf of Mexico will ease into south-central FL by the afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms today in the central Idaho mountains, and the Magic Valley, in the southwest flow ahead of a weak cold front passage coming overnight. Dry low levels, and increasing winds aloft due to approaching trough, mean that gusty winds with storms is the main threat. Otherwise forecast looks good with cooler temperatures tomorrow behind cold front.
Have gone with the highest pops in the northwest, with lesser chances in the south central.
Most locations will be dry by midnight but a few showers/thunderstorms may linger over the higher elevations through the night. The upper ridge over the central U. we will transition into a more diurnally driven convective pattern with the main area of concern centered over higher elevations with only an occasional storm dropping into the lower terrain.
Dry, warm, and humid weather will continue through the short term with high pressure in control both surface and aloft.
High pressure ridging continues to keep skies fair and free of precip this weekend. Little change in temperatures this weekend with highs in the low 90s across the Hill Country, mid to upper 90s in the metro areas, with our southwestern counties getting as high as 101.
133 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Warm, humid weather can be expected again today with more showers and storms as a weak cold front encroaches on the region. Heavy rainfall potential remains with the high PWATs and deep warm cloud depths lingering. Precipitation coverage is expected to be more widespread today with the approaching cold front, but this might be offset at least partially by slightly faster mid level flow/storm motion.
Tonight and Sunday Northwest upper flow and a high building in from Lake Winnipeg means that cooler and drier air is on the way tonight and Sunday.
155 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 The scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon seem to be mainly associated with 850 trough which extends from EVV to PAH. This along with a sharpening ridge aloft should decrease the coverage of afternoon storms, although it won't shut them completely off.
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 A cold front will move through this evening into tonight.
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Currently - An Atlantic surface pressure ridge extends westward into the southern peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico resulting in light to gentle southeast breezes across the Keys. Forecast - The ridge axis across Florida will gradually retreat southeastwards towards the Bahamas over the next couple of days as tail end of an eastern United States trough congeals into a low over the extreme southeast. While there is some uncertainty on the strength and position of this low, it appears that the Keys will remain outside of the its direct envelope of influence. With that said, the proximity of this low will keep deep layered ridging out of the picture.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s most places, except in the upper 80s at the coast. An upper level low or trough over west Tennessee will move southeast on Sunday, and a vort lobe will rotate around it through our region, so did go with some low pops for our forecast area in the afternoon with respect to that feature.
Tend to agree with this given the current location of the upper trof. An upper level trough will move will across northern sections of the Mid-South today. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with more clouds expected to develop today as highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will be moving into northern sections of the Mid-South overnight with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will move slowly south on Sunday and moving into north Mississippi by Sunday evening. Temperatures will be close to normal on Sunday with highs in the lower 90s.
Under this high pressure winds have been light and skies mostly clear. This high pressure will continue for the rest of the day. As the weekend's upper level ridge begins to move out a more active period of weather looks likely to begin.
in fact, moisture will be somewhat plentiful the next few days before the ridge can figure itself out.
Southerly flow will help pump temps into the lower 80s on Sunday for most of the area. The large scale upper level pattern will return to more of a southwest flow ahead of a pacific northwest trough.
Overnight lows in the lower 70s. Weak low pressure will also be located over the Southeast U. The steering flow will remain weak and it will be a challenge to pinpoint weak forcing in the vicinity of the upper low too far in advance. Expect diurnal convection to develop first across the higher terrain of the Carolinas and along the sea breeze front and then move slowly elsewhere due to the light steering flow.
Wind will turn southerly Sunday as high pressure pushes away to the east. The return flow will bring increasing moisture in the afternoon to southern and western MN, which could spark a shower or storm during peak heating, otherwise it will be another partly cloudy and pleasant day with highs in the lower 80s.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 60s along the KS/CO border to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas.
1125 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Slow moving upper trough situated over NW SD, with cyclonic flow aloft supporting a few shra over portions of western SD this morning. Meanwhile, trough reloading over the Pac NW will support another round of shra/ts later this afternoon and evening as an impulse ejects out of the Rockies in SW flow aloft. Convection is expected to initiate over the high plains of eastern WY, shifting NE into the FA.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Pressure ridge at the surface and aloft centered offshore. Closed low over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf coast region.
1132 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Warm, humid weather can be expected again today with more showers and storms as a weak cold front encroaches on the region. Heavy rainfall potential remains with the high PWATs and deep warm cloud depths lingering. Precipitation coverage is expected to be more widespread today with the approaching cold front, but this might be offset at least partially by slightly faster mid level flow/storm motion.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: While much of the convection will die off with the loss of daytime instability, there is some potential for redevelopment of showers overnight, especially over northeastern portions of the area nearer to the low. The upper low will still be nearby/just east of the area on Sunday, with considerable deep layer moisture remaining areawide. Highest POPs will be focused over the eastern portion of the forecast area nearest the mid/upper low.
Increased cloud and shower activity will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, mainly southeast of a KCAG-KGJT-KBDG line.
The synoptic pattern continues to show the center of the upper ridge off the TX gulf coast with an upper trough still over the northwestern U. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure had moved south through the southern high plains. For tonight through Sunday night, have backed off on the POPs with much of the guidance showing weak ridging at the surface and 850MB.
759 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Cooler and drier conditions will finally return for the first half of this coming week with highs in the lower to middle 80s and much lower humidity. Sfc dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s today helping bring MUCAPE values up to around 3k J/kg. Several models continue to develop some shra in the morning and even some activity in the afternoon along a weak inverted trough and theta e gradient. Expect any activity to be mainly central and east where weak convergence with lake shadow boundary develops near the location of inverted trough.
For a better set of terms, numerous shwrs with sct tstms "rounding the bend" across mid state sw counties as mid evening hrs progress per association with weak upper level low circulation aloft.
With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern Sun-Tue, expect sensible weather conditions similar to the past few days, with thunderstorm probs/coverage primarily modulated by upstream convection and/or small amplitude waves in SW flow aloft -- on the N/NW periphery of the ridge situated over the Southern Plains. An upper level ridge is progged to amplify over the Rockies and High Plains mid-late week -- suggesting above normal temperatures and near to below normal chances for convection.
958 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Cold front was moving south across the CWA at mid evening. Britt Isolated SHRA/TSRA were occurring across the eastern half of the LSX CWA this afternoon near a weak cold front. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler tonight compared to last night, especially across NE MO and west central IL. This will allow a slightly cooler and slightly drier air mass to filter southward into MO/IL, bringing some relief from the recent warm/humid conditions.
703 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs The scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon seem to be mainly associated with 850 trough which extends from EVV to PAH. This along with a sharpening ridge aloft should decrease the coverage of afternoon storms, although it won't shut them completely off.
Two separate areas focused on by the High Res models this afternoon and evening. Higher CAPE and weaker shear, but temperatures will be warmer with highs around 85.
904 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 A trough of low pressure will linger across the region through Sunday.
Winds are generally east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with a ridge axis extending westward across our region from the western North Atlantic. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes are expected overnight for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, with a ridge axis extending westward into our region from the western North Atlantic. We have retained the inherited VCSH, although dry air in the low levels may squelch moist convection.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Weak low pressure will also be located over the Southeast U. The steering flow will remain weak and it will be a challenge to pinpoint weak forcing in the vicinity of the upper low too far in advance. Expect diurnal convection to develop first across the higher terrain of the Carolinas and along the sea breeze front and then move slowly elsewhere due to the light steering flow.
A weak trough and deep moisture will remain over the area tonight, and there is a chance of showers moving in from the Gulf overnight. The weak troughing over the area is forecast to shift to the east on Sunday, and this is forecast to lead to less widespread rainfall than the past several days. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
Upper level ridging centered over the southwestern and south central gulf of Mexico combined with weak high pressure at the surface will result in an near carbon copy day tomorrow with plenty of sunshine, afternoon highs reaching the upper 90s and heat index values between 105 and 110. Temperatures are in the lower 90s most places, except in the upper 80s at the coast. An upper level low or trough over west Tennessee will move southeast on Sunday, and a vort lobe will rotate around it through our region, so did go with some low pops for our forecast area in the afternoon with respect to that feature.
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 At around 19Z this afternoon, an outflow boundary/effective cold front was noted on KLOT radar roughly west to east oriented near the I-80 corridor and moving south towards the local area.
All airports will be VFR through the evening under high pressure. High pressure ridging continues to keep skies fair and free of precip this weekend. Little change in temperatures this weekend with highs in the low 90s across the Hill Country, mid to upper 90s in the metro areas, with our southwestern counties getting as high as 101.
The activity is associated with an upper trough located in southwestern Canada and extends into the Pacific Northwest. A similar setup is expected Sunday afternoon with the focus for convection expected primarily over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho. A weak cold front tonight will bring cooler temperatures on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms before 06z and again Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over the central Idaho mountains, the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley, and the KTWF/KJER area.
Development is being aided by a mid/upper low/trough axis over the Delta. While much of the convection will die off with the loss of daytime instability, there is some potential for redevelopment of showers overnight, especially over northeastern portions of the area nearer to the low. The upper low will still be nearby/just east of the area on Sunday, with considerable deep layer moisture remaining areawide. Highest POPs will be focused over the eastern portion of the forecast area nearest the mid/upper low.
639 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Isolated SHRA/TSRA were occurring across the eastern half of the LSX CWA this afternoon near a weak cold front. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler tonight compared to last night, especially across NE MO and west central IL. This will allow a slightly cooler and slightly drier air mass to filter southward into MO/IL, bringing some relief from the recent warm/humid conditions.
For Sunday, the upper low over the Pacific Northwest will move a little further east.
Upper level trough deepens today and tonight with upper level ridging shifting eastward.
Atlantic high pressure across south-central Florida and the adjacent Gulf waters will slowly eases down to near the Florida Keys Sunday and resides there through midweek. as a trough of low pressure drops into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
With diurnal heating and a weak thermal trough, will maintain mention of isolated to widely scattered shras/tstms through this evening, and have capped PoPs at 30%. Not much pattern change into Sunday with PoPs still above climo (40%) as weak mid-level energy passes through the area in conjunction with high moisture profiles and a thermal trough over the area. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure offshore with a thermal trough inland. A broad area of low pressure will develop across the southeast with continuing high pressure to the north.
Highs are forecast to be similar to today, mainly in the lower- mid 80s.
752 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 A cold front will move through this evening into tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 72 92 / 20 60 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 70 88 / 20 60 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 88 70 88 / 20 60 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 67 85 / 20 60 50 30.
1036 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 A cold front will drop south through the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley overnight into Sunday. Additional storms will be possible Sunday as a wave of low pressure travels along the front.
951 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 An upper trof remains over the Mid-South this evening. Feel most of this will remain across eastern portions of the FA, given the location and orientation of the upper trof, from NE to SW over the area. The latest H5 analysis also shows the upper ridge currently located over south Texas. This feature will move east toward the Mid-South, bringing warmer and slightly drier conditions by midweek. After a dry night with temperatures down into the mid to lower 70s, Sunday will be another nice day with highs a few degrees warmer than today. The upper trof moves to the south, so afternoon thunderstorm activity chances appear more favorable across southern locales of the FA on Sunday afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 72 92 / 20 60 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 70 88 / 40 60 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 88 70 88 / 40 60 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 67 85 / 40 60 50 30.
JHM Upper level trough deepens today and tonight with upper level ridging shifting eastward.
Pleasant summer temps continue through Monday as the low moves overhead with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
404 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern plains and sern U. with a deep trough in the western U.
355 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 The center of the upper ridge should stay to our west.
314 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper high will shift slowly west across South Texas today and tonight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
1050 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 High pressure builds in from the north tonight, settling across the Great Lakes into Monday. Off to the west, a ripple in the upper level flow will track into the northern plains tonight where it will meet up with the low level jet/moisture transport. Generally zonal to perhaps broad, weak ridging a loft for the rest of the week. Temperatures still looking seasonable for the start of the new work week, but could end on a warmer note come the weekend.
155 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A trough of low pressure will linger across the region through Sunday.
1134 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 A cold front will cross the commonwealth overnight, and continue to slide slowly southward Sunday into Monday. High pressure centered to our north will continue to bring in drier air in for the first half of the week.
A drier pattern then emerges through the remainder of the week as an upper level high builds over the Central Plains and Central Rockies.
Models shift the upper low southeast into northern Alabama and Georgia through tonight, and with plenty of instability and moisture remaining in place today, expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the upper low center and in feeder bands extending to the northeast by this afternoon. Would also not be surprised to see a storm or two with some weak rotation due to the vorticity associated with the upper low. As the upper low shifts southeast away from Tennessee tomorrow, rain chances are expected to lower significant for the rest of the week as drier air in the mid and upper levels of the troposphere filters in from the north.
121 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A weak trough will increase onshore flow Sunday and Monday resulting in cooler temperatures and breezy conditions.
The upper level ridge in Texas moves eastward during the day on Monday and the upper level winds in Kansas will be more southwesterly.
The low level across northwest Minnesota will slowly erode from the west overnight and into Sunday morning. Under this high pressure winds have been light and skies mostly clear. This high pressure will continue for the rest of the day. As the weekend's upper level ridge begins to move out a more active period of weather looks likely to begin.
Like yesterday, locally heavy rainfall will be likely in a few areas given the the high rain rates and slow storm motions expected.
125 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today and bringing slightly drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new week. Encroachment of a weak cold front will maintain sct shwr potential this morning, otherwise warm and humid conditions continue, with only slightly cooler and drier air behind the front. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday; however, low level moist flow into the ridges may produce some showers or a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
in fact, moisture will be somewhat plentiful the next few days before the ridge can figure itself out. Several weakness in the ridge will serve to give us chances of precip through Monday, especially one coming out of Mexico on Monday. Models have once again split on the decision of a clean or dirty ridge.
326 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Encroachment of a weak cold front will maintain sct shwr potential this morning, otherwise warm and humid conditions continue. Given cloud cover, slightly cooler temps today, and limited upper support, convection is not expected to be as intense/problematic as yesterday. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday; however, low level moist flow into the ridges may produce some showers or a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The synoptic pattern continues to show the center of the upper ridge off the TX gulf coast with an upper trough still over the northwestern U. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure had moved south through the southern high plains. For tonight through Sunday night, have backed off on the POPs with much of the guidance showing weak ridging at the surface and 850MB. The weak ridging is progged to remain over the area for Sunday with not much indication of return flow setting up until late Sunday night or Monday morning. An easterly component to the low level winds is progged to persist through the day Sunday.
This activity is ahead of a cold front which extends across central Indiana through central Missouri and into northern Oklahoma. This cold front is expected to continue to move south and drop into the Mid-South later today. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By tonight, the cold front will stall out and weaken some with only a few thunderstorms expected to develop during the evening hours. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm with highs in the lower 90s.
Numerous popcorn showers have developed over western Kentucky this afternoon in an axis of deeper moisture south of a cold front and north of a meso low in western TN. The synoptic cold front remains well to our north across Illinois and Indiana and will slowly drop south through the area tonight and Sunday. Though the cold front remains well to the north, scattered convection is expected to fill in over central KY and southern IN in a very moist, moderately unstable atmosphere.
441 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 High pressure builds through Monday. A cold front moves across the area Monday night.
1230 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Cooler and drier conditions will finally return for the first half of this coming week with highs in the lower to middle 80s and much lower humidity. Sfc dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s today helping bring MUCAPE values up to around 3k J/kg. Several models continue to develop some shra in the morning and even some activity in the afternoon along a weak inverted trough and theta e gradient. Expect any activity to be mainly central and east where weak convergence with lake shadow boundary develops near the location of inverted trough.