Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
329 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A weakening upper low over New Jersey will push off the coast overnight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania behind this system, and will likely remain over the area through the end of the work week, bringing mainly dry and slightly milder conditions across Central Pennsylvania. and along with PBZ opted to go for Dense Fog Advisory through mid morning Tuesday for all but the Lower Susq River Valley. Lows will drop back into the upper 40s across the Allegheny Plateau, to the low 50s over the Susq Valley. Upper ridging is forecast to build over the eastern United State through the weekend. This will support high pressure at the surface, providing the state with a stretch of fair and warmer weather for much of the work week.
With the advancing surface front and dry line combo, surface convergence will persist ahead of it, even with a gradual weakening of the low level jet after sunrise. Dew points, which are already in the mid 50s to near 60 this morning (2am), will continue to climb steadily through the morning into the afternoon, to the low to mid 60s for much of the region. Modest veering of wind profiles nearest the low in north central Oklahoma into central Kansas, paired with steep lapse rates and decent instability, 1500-2000 J/Kg, supercellular structures are expected with the strongest updrafts that develop across central Kansas into north central Oklahoma. For the remainder of the week, the large western trough remains in place, while the 500mb low in play today makes a swing northward into the Northern Plains.
1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Slightly warmer temperatures for early October will remain across the region this evening and into Tuesday as a result of winds shifting towards the south. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 60s tonight as as result of the southerly winds. The front Tuesday looks like it may wash out over the region as another storm system and cold front develops across the plains.
Models are in good agreement strong upper level low and sfc reflection will quickly lift thru the Dakotas with trailing attendant cold front slowing down then becoming quasi-stationary late tonight.
445 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Tranquil weather conditions exist across northern AL/southern TN this morning, provided by an amplified mid-level ridge which is currently shifting eastward across the region. Little change in this pattern is anticipated overnight, as models suggest that the deepening upstream trough will lift northeastward into the southern Canadian provinces -- maintaining a moderate southwest flow aloft over the TN valley. However -- as mentioned yesterday -- guidance from the GFS/GEM/UKMET and ECMWF is now in unanimous agreement that the Atlantic subtropical ridge will begin to build westward into the southeastern Atlantic coast/southern CONUS on Wednesday, as a trough near the coast of New England weakens and lifts east-northeastward.
322 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Vigorous upper trough ejecting into the Plains this morning is already forcing an extensive line of showers and thunderstorms from Texas into the Dakotas. Much of this activity will likely weaken later in the day as the low-level jet that is currently feeding it weakens. Convection will then likely regenerate along an advancing cold front across central and eastern KS later this afternoon as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Cold front will lose much of its punch overnight as the main upper- level energy bypasses the region to the north. However, by late afternoon a warm frontal boundary will begin to organize and lift north toward into eastern KS and western/central MO.
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 New England high pressure will extend southward across the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. -GIH High pressure secured in place over New England and the mid-Atlantic states will keep central NC cool and dry for the middle part of the week as northeasterly flow brings clouds and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s to the area with the northwest Piedmont seeing the coolest conditions.
As the stacked low over the northern plains lifts northward an upper level ridge will build in over the eastern US.
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. The upper troughing extending into the area will lift farther northeast. The models have been consistent keeping deep moisture east of the forecast area associated with the offshore trough. The models show continued surface ridging from the north and significant moisture east of the area associated with an inverted trough off the coast. Aloft ridging is shown extending into the area from the east. The northeast flow favored the lower guidance but this should be offset by the upper ridging.
1118 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Upper low lifting into WY this afternoon with band of strong low/mid level winds rotating eastward across CO. Winds die out overnight, with a shift to N-NW flow along and east of the mountains as weak cold front drops south through the plains. Cooler conditions with less wind expected on Tue under wly flow aloft, though winds will likely become gusty in spots after 18z, as rather deep dry air mass promotes efficient mixing.
107 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure over the northeastern U. Lows early this morning will be in the mid 50s with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s. Hopefully more in the way of sunshine on Tuesday, especially east with approaching trough starting to send some mid/high clouds into western areas. With regards to temperatures, warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s and highs in the into the 70s.
344 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today.
High pressure ridging will be over the area today bringing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. However, the ridging begins to break down this afternoon as a fast zonal flow aloft moves in from the Pacific northwest.
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Dry weather will continue through this morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
However, rain will be evident first across the higher terrain later today, especially that which lines along the Montana/Idaho border.
High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will produce VFR conditions at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. /issued 353 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The center of 500 mb high pressure will shift slightly west from over the BRO CWFA to the Texas Big Bend during the forecast period. The result of this weather pattern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday with isolated streamer shower activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight.
314 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas through tonight.
with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s over the Plains and 60s-70s for the Mts and high valleys. Expect clearing skies from W to E tonight, which will lead to cool but seasonable overnight Lows, mainly in the 40s-lower 50s for the Plains and 30s for the high valleys.
321 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Low pressure over the Northland this morning will move east northeast today with brief ridging moving in behind. Coverage this afternoon will be lower than this morning and most of the high resolution models indicate coverage and intensity of the precipitation will diminish after 12Z. More clouds than sun will occur for much of the day as cooler air aloft and cyclonic flow will not be supportive of widespread clearing. As high pressure moves through the Northland tonight, it will bring an end to any linger showers and cause skies to clear. After overnight lows in the forties, highs will rebound into the lower to mid seventies on Sunday. A cold front will move through the forecast area Sunday night, while an upper level short wave trof clips northern Minnesota.
242 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low moving east over the Northern Plains. A cold front extends south from the closed low across the plains. Tonight the clear weather will continue until the overnight hours when an upper level short wave trough will be develop over East Central Colorado. Am not very optimistic for rainfall due to the weak lift associated with the short wave trough. Am expecting storms to develop along the surface feature as the short wave trough deepens overhead. Storm activity will increase during the late afternoon as the short wave trough continues to deepen overhead and instability increases.
237 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A positive tilted trough of low pressure at 500 mb extends from Wyoming southwest to just offshore of California. The strongest mid and upper level flow is well north of the trough across Washington State and British Columbia. With the mid-latitude jet stream well to our north as well, Colorado is in between troughs in relatively dry west-northwest mid-level flow on Saturday. The 700 mb trough axis crosses Colorado early this morning and by 14Z or so flow turns Westerly which will bring with it warmer and dryer downslope flow to eastern Colorado.
On the West side of the tropical feature, high pressure will build South across Southeast Georgia. While drier air will advect South with the ridging, moisture will continue to push ashore from leftovers of Julia.
Convection has ignited on the leading edge of the low and extends south along the cold front positioned along the western Minnesota border. The low and associated convection will lift into the Northland though the evening. A few storms have the potential to become strong to severe this evening with a threat for large hail as freezing levels are only around 10kft with favorable shear and CAPE. Guidance suggests the low center and upper level max reaches north central Minnesota by midnight, then continues to push to the northeast into the tip of the MInnesota Arrowhead by daybreak Saturday. Have continued to carry thunder in the arrowhead through Saturday morning as the upper level low will be overhead providing sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms. Saturday night and Sunday we finally clear the current upper low out the area.
420 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front pushing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will trigger showers and thunderstorms today into tonight.
Tonight a warm front with showers and thunderstorms will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Late Sunday into Sunday night a slow moving cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms. This ahead of a warm front in Ohio. Showers and thunderstorms in the warm moist airmass behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front. Lows in the 60s with the high dewpoints. A break Sunday morning with only some showers then the cold front approaches late in the day with another batch of rain. At this point will need to watch for isolated higher amounts and areas that had the highest amounts tonight.
439 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Dry conditions this morning will see increasing clouds ahead of an upper level trough moving out the Great Lakes region.
Expecting about 5 degrees cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s but possibly cooler in areas receiving the most rainfall.
We are already starting to see an increase in clouds in NW Alabama ahead of a frontal system over the Midwest and an upper low that is spinning in the Gulf, just south of LA. Only went BKN050 as the lowest for Saturday but cannot rule out these dropping lower and amendments may be necessary.
The ridge of high pressure that has been over the region is breaking down and will give way to westerly flow by Saturday. This will usher in a cold front Saturday which will bring some rain mainly to the northern portion of the forecast area. VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours across all TAF sites but with lowering ceilings BKN-OVC 050-080 on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area and brings some precipitation.
119 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from time to time over the weekend with the approach and passage of a weak cold front.
436 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A warm front will lift north of the region early today. slow moving cold front will follow on Sunday.
Flow aloft over Northeast Montana today backs around to the west as a broad upper trough moves into Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This westerly upper flow, a southwesterly surface breeze, and the departing ridge, with generally sunny skies, will lead to a warm day with highs running around 10F degrees above average. Tonight a weak, dry cold front out ahead of the western trough will move through the local area.
Tonight, A weak upper level trough will move east-southeast across eastern CO and across KS through the night. Most numerical models show an area of showers and thunderstorms developing across eastern CO and western KS, due to ascent ahead of the H5 trough and upslope flow.
230 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Dry weather will continue through this morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
a cold front continues to slowly move eastward and is currently aligned along the Ohio river bordering Illinois and Kentucky with the front stretching northward across Indiana. Clouds and precipitation will hold for Sunday, so have undercut guidance on the highs with temperatures failing to make 80. Winds look light through the overnight but will increase from the southwest Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
402 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A warm front will lift north of the region early today. slow moving cold front will follow on Sunday.
256 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms out west associated with the approaching trough have begun to cross the MS River early this morning. As for the cold front, it looks like it will start moving through the mid state Sunday morning, and be completely through the area by Sunday evening.
Moisture will be very limited with dewpoints currently in the 40s to around 50 and these will climb only slightly by this evening into the the lower 50s. A subtle hardly noticeable vort max/upper trough will slide east off the high plains this evening. Several WRF models also indicate that this high plains convection could make it at least into our western zones this evening. Therefore, have added a chance of thunderstorms to the forecast for this evening leaning towards the lower superblend POPs.
141 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
149 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A slow moving weak cold front will push east across the region this weekend.
413 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Early this morning, the upper low was sliding slowly eastward along the MN/Canada border with the associated vorticity max progressing through northern MN, sparking additional showery activity there. A ridge axis will push in this afternoon and will be followed by low level warm air advection in southwesterly flow tonight.
400 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas through tonight.
Going into tonight, convection will continue into late evening hours as the low level jet continues to interact with the outflow. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 80s.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front pushing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will trigger showers and thunderstorms today into tonight.
247 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Primary challenge for the rest of tonight and today will be departure of some light rain showers over northwest Minnesota associated with an upper low/trough over wrn Ontario/northern MN. An upstream short wave ridge will move move over the Dakotas today and bring dry weather to the eastern Dakotas and RRV, with some lingering showers through the morning in the far northeast. This will bring much warmer overnight lows to western zones tonight, generally in the mid 50s. about 10 deg warmer than last night.
/Issued 1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ Current satellite loop shows some fair weather CU developing across the area under the large high pressure ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard. Moisture does increase slightly Sat as ridge begins to break down tonight allowing the main axis of moisture now over the MS/LA/AR area to move east. Will keep an eye on this closely because if the ridge breaks down faster than expected we could see precip move into western portions of the state late Sat afternoon/evening. BDL By Sunday wedge of high pressure nosing into northeast Georgia should become more diffuse aside from potential in-situ reinforcement.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The center of 500 mb high pressure will shift slightly west from over the BRO CWFA to the Texas Big Bend during the forecast period. The result of this weather pattern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday with isolated streamer shower activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight.
317 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will remain anchored east of the Gulf of Maine today. A cold front approaches from the west later today and tonight with showers and possible thunderstorms working in from the west, mainly after midnight tonight. A wave of low pressure may develop along the front to the southwest of New England Sunday night and travel northeastward.
627 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today.
408 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from time to time over the weekend with the approach and passage of a weak cold front.
224 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas through tonight.
603 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a cold front on Sunday night.
If you're headed to the high country, be ready for 50s and 60s during the day.
A dry upper trough has exited out of Nevada to the south, with a weak ridge building in from the northwest across the state. The ridge will flatten quickly from the onslaught of another short wave moving southeast along the northwest coast of North America. Low in the 30s and 40s with a few below freezing spots in valleys, especially in the north or the higher valleys of central and eastern Nevada.
1030 PM PDT Fri Sep 16 2016 An early Autumn Pacific storm system will arrive over the weekend with wet conditions, breezy winds and cooler temperatures expected.
Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will exit east of the forecast area today. The combination of increasing mid/upper troughing over the region, a cold front approaching from the north, and pooling moisture over the CWA thanks to a piece of energy currently meandering about over the North Central Gulf of Mexico, good chances for rain will exist across the forecast area today. Convection will subside during the evening and overnight hours, but some showers will linger overnight as the cold front begins to make its run on the CWA. High pressure building into the region behind the front Sunday night, will result in some slightly drier air filtering south into the region. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s, and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday night.
In the wake of last night's cold front that brought in some cool, dry air, dewpoints are running pretty low across the region.
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Showers over southwestern Illinois are tapering off as of 08z, with some isolated showers associated with trof which extends from northern Illinois through STL metro area to south central Missouri. So some isolated/scattered showers not out of the question with this trof.
144 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Last vestiges of the upper low will traverse the region today, spreading clouds overhead and bringing some instability showers to areas along and north of I-94. Showers are anticipated to develop again, with the highest likelihood over northern WI. During the evening, anticipate the clouds and showers to fizzle away, leaving mainly clear skies as high pressure builds in. High pressure begins to shift east on Sunday allowing for some return flow. Warm advection will lead to slightly warmer temperatures, but some of that may also manifest as cloudiness.
The local synoptic pattern will continue to be dominated by deep layer ridging. At the surface, a convergence zone will set-up between the easterly flow at the nose of the eastern CONUS ridge and the southerly flow ahead of an approaching front over the Mississippi Valley.
151 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 High pressure moves to our east tonight, then a cold front slowly moves through the region this weekend. Made some minor tweaks to the sky cover to all some of the lower clouds over central and southern Pa to creep north to the southern tier of Ny by daybreak Saturday. High pressure will continue to drift off the New England coastal waters tonight and Saturday. Low pressure will be forming across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through the weekend. Otrw a lrg hipres blds in with cooler air under a broad upr trof.
Given 925 mb temperatures of 17C to 19C, should see highs in the mid to upper 70s, with the cooler temperatures in the far west. Quiet tonight, even with shallow mid to upper level troughiness and weak vorticity maxima moving across, with no moisture or lift and weak surface ridging. Consensus lows in the lower to mid 50s inland, with near 60 right along the lake, look on target.
Mid-level high pressure building over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather during the TAF forecast period. High pressure is starting to build back over us and a drier atmosphere will lessen precip chances and increase temps. /issued 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Winds remain generally light and variable across the region as weak low pressure roams across the area. Saturday, a few shower chances are still possible along the seabreeze as moisture remains in place, but best instability remains to the east over the Gulf as the midlevel low remains in place just off the Louisiana coast, and H5 ridging rebuilds across south Texas.
634 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas through tonight.
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
This system is expected to drift to the east while a mid level ridge builds over the area. as much of the CWA remains on the west side of a broad trough of low pressure. The short term forecast appears to be a battle between the higher moisture levels near the coast and drier air further west. Models are not as aggressive with a western push of the upper low center.
218 PM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 A strong upper level ridge will build over the northwest U.
314 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 At 3 PM, a trough was moving south through central Minnesota and central Wisconsin. From tonight into Friday morning, a short wave trough will move south through the region. As a result raised the low temperatures by 2 to 4F.
A rain/snow mixture will continue to spread across central Indiana this morning from north to south as an upper trough rotates through the region. surface temperatures and road temperatures are a little above freezing so impact will be low next several hours. Temps through the period will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s. The only caveat will be tonight's lows which will be a tad warmer in the upper 20s.
This should deliver high temperatures roughly ranging from the lower 50s in northern zones to upper 50s in southern zones. /BB/ Prior discussion below: Generally seasonable, though noticeably lower, high temperatures are on tap for today as CAA continues behind the cold front that's now out of the area. Despite generally unimpeded insolation, falling low level heights with an upper trough combined with the aforementioned W/NW cold advection will help to keep highs down into the 50s across most of the area. It will be cooler tonight due to lighter wind/radiational cooling.