Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is in response to an approaching upper level trough from the west that has managed to pull adequate moisture aloft northward into the area. Expect this trough to shift east of the area by Tuesday. At the surface, transient, weak high pressure shifts into the ArkLaTex region helping to keep surface northerly winds over the area. Temperatures struggled to climb this afternoon only reaching the lower 50's for most locations. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer, rising into the upper 50's for most areas with a few spots managing to touch 60 degrees.
The upper ridge over the southwestern US will get suppressed somewhat over the next 24 hours as an upper disturbance pushes into the Rockies. Brisk westerly winds across the higher elevations later tonight will produce some high level cloudiness over the mts and I-25 Corridor overnight, and will also help to keep temps elevated somewhat along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts. Plan on overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s for most areas, while right along the eastern slopes temps may stay right around freezing. Expect temps to warm into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the plains, and into the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys.
303 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 Tonight through Tuesday: A persistently cool and dry airmass will be reinforced by a weak thermal trough moving across the area tonight. Low temperatures should fall well below freezing for most locations by early morning.
A cold front will begin to make its way through the region around 23-00Z on Tuesday afternoon shifting winds to the north. A little more in the way of wind is expected Tuesday with periodically breezy west-southwest winds developing ahead of a cold front.
219 PM PST Mon Feb 7 2022 Dry and mild conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. The main features through the weekend will be mild highs, seasonably chilly lows, and a couple periods of increased easterly winds over Sierra ridges.
631 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of the week. Lows from the mid 30s well inland to the lower-mid 40s at the beaches look on track for now. A mid-level trough will swing through the eastern CONUS Tuesday while high pressure builds in from the west at the surface.
344 PM PST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will rebound Tuesday bringing a prolonged period of mild and dry weather with areas of morning low clouds and fog. Tonight and Tomorrow: As the morning front exits, a high pressure center off the coast will be strengthening over the region. The amplification of the ridge is not strong enough to pull the colder Arctic air into the region and temperatures will continue to be on the mild side for this time of year.
Behind this small wiggle, flow again turns northwesterly as the ridge of high pressure remains over the west CONUS coast. The Uintah Basin will be the exception to this rule, where scant snowfall has contributed to continuing drier and warmer than normal (10+ degrees) conditions.
Some sites may also see record high minimums tonight with lows near or even above freezing. A dry cold front followed by a clipper system looks to push across the region tonight through Tuesday. The cold front itself looks to push through later tonight, and may bring a few isolated showers to the far north, but is overall expected to be dry. Look for slightly cooler highs in the 30s and 40s on Tuesday. Tuesday's clipper exits the region Tuesday night with cooler temperatures in the 20s and 30s expected.
Northerly winds will persist through the night around 5-10 mph and will keep cooler conditions in place, with lows in the upper 40s across northern Lake and Volusia counties and in the 50s farther south. IFR cigs with MVFR vis are expected to largely dominant across the area due to this higher coverage of rainfall and lingering stratus north of the front.
610 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Remnant snow showers will be passing across the FNT and metro Detroit region at the start of the TAF period as a mid level trough axis moves overhead. Ongoing subtle low level cold air advection and moisture off the lakes will support at least chance for some lingering showers/flurries through the evening in the wake of this trough. In the wake of this front, a ridge of high pressure will build into the area and bring light west winds overnight. With some clearing as well, expect temperatures to fall into the lower teens (to single digits in some cases) as colder air filters into the area.
318 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Ridging along the Pacific Coast is deflecting the storm track well to the north and east. The northwest flow aloft will continue as ridging across the western US keeps most of the systems to our east.
Lows will be a little warmer tonight than last night as winds come around out of the southwest. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) S-SW winds tomorrow ahead of the next weak cold front will support a notable warm up with high temps well above seasonal normals.
825 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front crosses overnight with a chance of light snow in the mountains late tonight into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure. In addition, updated cloud cover across the CWA over the next several hours as guidance is having trouble with the progression of the stratus deck behind the approaching cold front. A weak cold front will swing through the region late this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure system will build in on Tuesday.
High pressure anchored across the West will give Southern Arizona and Southeast California an extended stretch of sunny and mild weather. Meanwhile, a dome of mid-level high pressure extends along the California coastline. Over the next several days, the axis of this ridging will move little. This means that our area will sit on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
308 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 The main forecast challenge for the short term revolves around timing of the fropa and the upper trough dropping in. GFS has been consistently slower with a deeper trough than the consensus models but has started to speed up on the 12z run. However, there are a few other solutions that are on the cooler/slower side as well. While the winds will be strong, temperatures will be a bit cooler, topping out around 50 in central SD, so RH will not be as low as today. If the trough drops down with the caa in the afternoon, highs will be reached in the morning and hold steady or fall during the afternoon.
353 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 Summary: Warmer weather on Tuesday with some mixed precipitation chances.
A clear, bluebird day taking place across north- central Arizona this afternoon with high pressure in control. This pattern of breezy, northeast winds and dry conditions remains through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the west coast, sending the Pacific storm track well north, into British Columbia. With the high strengthening towards the west, this allows the longwave trough to remain in place over much of the eastern half of the country, giving them the more active winter weather for this week.
856 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure is beginning to settle over the Mid-South this evening behind a weak cold front that moved through earlier today. As a result temperatures are in the low 40s, but still well above freezing. Dry conditions and mostly above freezing temperatures are expected for the remainder of this week into the weekend.
The Lower Keys managed to get up into the mid 70s while the Middle and Upper Keys got up into the upper 70s thanks to more sunshine. Pretty much anything north and west of the Channel 5 Bridge has north to northeast winds, while south and east, we have east to southeast winds.
High clouds will continue to clip the Pine Belt overnight ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. /DL/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tuesday: A persistently cool and dry airmass will be reinforced by a weak thermal trough moving across the area tonight. Low temperatures should fall well below freezing for most locations by early morning.
An upper level long wave trough will continue to move across the region tonight and usher in drier air as a ridge builds in behind the trough. Lows will be just a tad warmer in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
550 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 Summary: Warmer weather on Tuesday with some mixed precipitation chances.
Behind the passage of last night's cold frontal boundary, moderate north winds have allowed drier air to filter into SE TX. This will have the further effect of allowing for more efficient radiative cooling overnight, and as a result have opted to side with the lower end of guidance for overnight lows. Most inland locations will remain in the low to mid 30s, while coastal locations settle in the lower 40s and the far northern zones may once again reach the upper 20s. With the loss of any CAA from today's northerly flow, highs of a few degrees warmer than today should result with most locations breaking into the mid 60s.
230 PM PST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will rebound Tuesday bringing a prolonged period of mild and dry weather with areas of morning low clouds and fog. Tonight and Tomorrow: As the morning front exits, a high pressure center off the coast will be strengthening over the region. The amplification of the ridge is not strong enough to pull the colder Arctic air into the region and temperatures will continue to be on the mild side for this time of year.
/issued 312 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The 500mb trough axis works offshore tonight into Tuesday morning, with weak mid level high pressure building into Tuesday night. As high pressure builds, expect winds to diminish and radiational cooling to help lows dip back into the 30s across the ranchlands both tonight and Tuesday night, with lows in the low 40s across the RGV.
The ridge will move ewd later tnt with sly winds and low level warm advection beginning. Only slight chances for lgt snow or freezing drizzle late Tue nt.
534 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, a dry cold front will move across the terminal sites on Tuesday with gusty north winds in its wake. A pleasant afternoon is ongoing across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with temperatures approaching the low 50s and relatively light winds are out of the west. North to northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern High Plains on Tuesday and will aid in ushering down a cold front on Tuesday morning. This is quite a weak cold front so little to no CAA is expected.
/DL/ Tonight through Tuesday: A persistently cool and dry airmass will be reinforced by a weak thermal trough moving across the area tonight. Low temperatures should fall well below freezing for most locations by early morning.
658 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Light snow is possible overnight and Tuesday morning along the I 80 corridor, and in the ridges.
646 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will push through the area bringing clouds and a few flurries north of I-70.
overnight) as high pressure settles into the area. Behind the passage of last night's cold frontal boundary, moderate north winds have allowed drier air to filter into SE TX. This will have the further effect of allowing for more efficient radiative cooling overnight, and as a result have opted to side with the lower end of guidance for overnight lows. Most inland locations will remain in the low to mid 30s, while coastal locations settle in the lower 40s and the far northern zones may once again reach the upper 20s. With the loss of any CAA from today's northerly flow, highs of a few degrees warmer than today should result with most locations breaking into the mid 60s.
916 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Weak low pressure will continue to lift northeast towards the Gulf of Maine. High pressure then builds into the region for most of the week. A cold front passes through late in the work week, and then a stronger cold front passes through over the weekend. We have maintained the narrow and brief transition to sleet and freezing rain/drizzle on the very back side of the precipitation, lasting for an hour or two down into the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, the Philly NW burbs, and northern NJ. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s north to around freezing along the coast and far southern Delaware. The main feature through the short term will be the high building over the region then shifting further east.
By 15z Tuesday, expected diminished northerly winds, around 5-7 kts at best, as the center of high pressure settles approaches the region.
Low-level ridging builds back in tomorrow with a dry airmass and a mostly clear sky. VFR prevailing conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period with clear skies and light winds as high pressure builds in from the west. Upper level trough swings across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.
1156 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Cold front has worked through Livingston and this has decreased gap winds there. TWH Upper level ridging in control over the region today, with lee troughing bringing a tight surface pressure gradient along the foothills. Temps will run a few degrees cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday, thanks to slightly less wind, and more westerly locations of ridging.
On Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be mild as SW flow will occupy the low-to-mid levels ahead of a disturbance which will move through Wednesday night.
1244 AM EST Tue Feb 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of the week. A mid-level trough will swing through the eastern CONUS Tuesday while high pressure builds in from the west at the surface. Beginning Wednesday broad troughing will prevail aloft, while high pressure holds steady at the surface. Clear skies and calm winds will create prime radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night, which will likely produce lows in the low 30s, perhaps even chillier.
1115 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front crosses overnight with a chance for flurries in the mountains Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure. Cold front is currently progressing through the region. In addition, updated cloud cover across the CWA over the next several hours as guidance is having trouble with the progression of the stratus deck behind the approaching cold front. A weak cold front will swing through the region late this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure system will build in on Tuesday.
1015 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will push through the area bringing clouds and a few flurries north of I-70. Dry weather expected through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region.
GOES water vapor imagery this morning show mid to high level clouds/moisture ahead of the trough across the northern plains and western MN, and these clouds will spread across the region today. The degree of cloud cover could impact temps, but as winds shift west to southwest through the day aiding in vertical mixing, temps should climb at least into the the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas, potentially a bit warmer in spots if deeper mixing occurs. Temps will trend a touch cooler on Wednesday, but highs will still be mainly in the 30s with gusty northwest winds. Light snow/snow showers looks like the predominant ptype, but a low chance for patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle exists where saturation is shallow enough to inhibit cloud ice production.
Lows by sunrise should bottom out in the low to mid 20s for most everyone, although some upper teens are possible in the Upper Cumberland. Heights will rise across the region today in the wake of the upper trough that swung through yesterday, with low level winds becoming more southerly/westerly. Even warmer conditions are on the way for tomorrow due to stronger southwesterly flow aloft, with afternoon temps reaching the mid 50s to around 60.
A cold front will pass through the CWA this afternoon however, will little cold air behind the front, lows tonight will remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
/Updated at 0939 PM CST Mon Feb 07 2022/ Weak cold front is becoming diffuse as it moves through the area. high pressure begins to set up over the south with clouds clearing through the morning and dry weather through the day.
1059 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Low pressure moves along our coast today and tonight. High pressure builds back over the area from the west late Tuesday through late week.
Today: A mild day is expected across the Ozarks region as gusty southwest winds at 20 to 25 mph usher in warmer air.
329 AM EST Tue Feb 8 2022 An upper level trough will dig across the Southeastern States and northern Gulf coast today with an attendant cold front moving south through the forecast area through tonight. The rain will gradually end from north to south on Wednesday morning as the upper trough and front moves to the east of the area. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds in from the west.
1110 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 For the 06Z TAFs, a dry cold front will move across the terminal sites on Tuesday with gusty north winds in its wake. /Issued 534 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ For the 00Z TAFs, a dry cold front will move across the terminal sites on Tuesday with gusty north winds in its wake. A pleasant afternoon is ongoing across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with temperatures approaching the low 50s and relatively light winds are out of the west. North to northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern High Plains on Tuesday and will aid in ushering down a cold front on Tuesday morning. This is quite a weak cold front so little to no CAA is expected.
The clipper system will be occluded, so we may see some subtle wind shifts, but no true cold front until late Wednesday night. Tuesday night will be milder, but if winds die down enough in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, those areas could end up a little below freezing. Farther east, we may not be warm enough, but are at least likely to stay above freezing. Wednesday night lows will drop back below freezing mainly in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure begins to rebuild over the region, though a weak front may brush the northern portions of the area Tuesday. After this weak disturbance, high pressure returns and remains solidly in place much of the week.
High pressure anchored across the West will give Southern Arizona and Southeast California an extended stretch of sunny and mild weather.
1105 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania overnight, then high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
Highs today will be near season normals, in the low to mid 60s. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country late this evening, then through the rest of the area Wednesday morning.
805 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 02z surface analysis had cold front from northeast MT into central ID. First batch should occur with cold front, focused on squeeze area just east of the Black Hills. Surface map shows a trough over the northern plains, with a warm front along its axis across the eastern Dakotas. The first wave will approach tonight, and the cold front will begin crossing our CWA early Tuesday morning. With the Froude number expected to stay between 1-2 for nearly 24 hrs, going along with the trend of increasing snow amounts: generally 3-5 inches in the northern BH, with around 6 inches possible in the highest elevations.
A dry northwest flow aloft will continue through Tuesday as an upper ridge remains off the coast. Fog is expected to develop in some areas later tonight, including the Western Magic Valley (Twin Falls, Jerome), the Lower Treasure Valley (Ontario), the Baker Valley and Upper Weiser Basin. Temperatures will be warmest across far southern Oregon with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, whereas the highs will only be in the 30s and 40s across the remainder of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. High pressure remains over eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho through the forecast period. Morning valley fog included in the forecast, especially across the Magic Valley and the Lower Treasure Valley. Light wind will remain for much of the area, though slight increases in wind will be present over the higher terrain as the weak disturbances move through.
A few flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle will remain possible within a weak lake plume into the early evening across our northern zones. Low level ridging does briefly fold though later tonight into early tomorrow which will bring any precip to an end. A quick thermal recovery then tomorrow as warm advection ramps up in the advance of the next weak nw flow impulse and associated cold front.
(Today) SSW winds ahead of a weak cold front along with generally clear skies will result in a substantial warm up this afternoon, with very little lingering impact of snow cover remaining.
A large upper-level trough continues its eastward progression across the eastern half of CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken and become northwesterly after the trough's axis passes overhead by early Tuesday afternoon. As this trough pushes off the Eastern Seaboard, a second trough follows in its wake. At the surface, a weak high pressure developing over Texas will slowly push eastwards along the Gulf Coast. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s west of I-65, and mid to upper 30s for areas east. Lows Tuesday night will be cooler across the area thanks to minimal cloud cover, with temperatures dropping into the low 30s inland and mid 30s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, increasing to the low to mid 60s by Wednesday.
341 AM EST Tue Feb 8 2022 Light snow is possible early this morning along the I 80 corridor and in the ridges. Any minor accumulation will be limited to the eastern ridges and north of I-80. Clouds will clear overnight with brief ridging and dry advection.
Meanwhile, a warm front is well defined from portions of the Northern Plains into the Missouri River Valley, where with aid of downslope temps have climbed well into the 50s to even near 60 in some areas. This warm front will be tracking through our area Tuesday, and while it won't be quite this warm due to airmass modification and lingering snow cover in some areas it will be well above normal. Tuesday, any fog and stratus should dissipate/depart by PM as the downslope augmented warm front moves through. Details: Wednesday: Clipper tracks across the northern Great Lakes sending a cold front into the area.
A strong upper ridge along the west coast keeps the jet stream orientation northwest to southeast producing a series of very quick moving cold fronts.
Being behind a mid/upper level trough today, we will have weak cold advection aloft that may result in high temps a degree or two cooler than yesterday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A light SW flow through the low and mid levels tonight will bring min temps into the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight.
1152 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 For the 08/06Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail through the period under high pressure entering from the west. /issued 950 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ Another night with cooler than normal temperatures is on the way to the Ark-La-Tex. That said, temperature grid adjustments were made to account for slightly warmer temperature trends, especially in western zones.
This same cloud canopy helped these areas rebound from their earlier cooler temps back into the teens to near 20F. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a 500 mb trough with an Alberta Clipper system over the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. This trough digs further into the eastern U. The ridge moves into the western U. The ridge moves into the Rockies 12z Mon and into the plains 12z Tue. Temperatures will go back below normal for most of this forecast period with above normal temperatures on Fri, then a cold front moves through and knocks temperatures below normal again. South winds increase to 20 to 30 knots today ahead of an approaching cold front, highest over the east half.