Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
614 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A large upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the Four Corners area. Monsoonal moisture has been riding over the ridge and bringing localized heavy rain to parts of the plains over the past few days. Convection may be focused on the nose of the low level jet.
The upper level pattern impacting the central Gulf coast region will be a large mid/upper level high centered in the Four Corners to southern Rockies region and a shear axis/trough extending from the eastern U. states to a meandering upper low over the north central/central Gulf of Mexico.
The early start to shower activity will hold Max Temps in the lower 80s along the coast with mid/upper 80s inland. These lower Max Temps will keep the main impact from the convection as locally heavy rainfall with some potential for stronger wind gusts to 40-50 mph over far inland areas where temps are a bit warmer.
616 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Dominated by high pressure, all sites to remain VFR through the TAF period. Temperatures are in the middle 90s which is about 1-3 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be back in the lower to upper 70s with partly cloudy skies. For tomorrow, dry weather is expected to continue as the sub-tropical ridge continues to have a hold on our weather pattern.
A weak upper level trough will help form a wave along the front that is stalled south of the area. Synoptically, there is a mean weakness in the height field over the region with the mean upper ridge over the western CONUS.
/issued 428 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ On stlt images this aftn an upper lvl ridge can be seen from the southern Rockies northward into Montana. Storms are moving up and over this feature then diving south on the leading edge of the ridge. The ridge looks to move slightly to the west on Friday and this drift is expected to increase our chances for storms on tmrw and into the weekend as energy/shrt wvs along w/ moisture moves down from the north.
High pressure will remain in place over Lake Michigan Friday into the weekend. VFR conditions will persist through Friday under high pressure. Medium to High High pressure will continue to dominate this period. The diurnal CU field has set up near some of the higher dew points in SC WI while rather low dew points in the 40s have prevailed in much of the eastern areas.
301 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019 Fairly benign weather pattern in place, despite troughing aloft.
For the inland areas, however, 500 mb high pressure over the Four Corners area and extended over the BRO CWFA will result in dry weather and limited cloud cover for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Models showing drier conditions over the CWA Friday through Saturday as the upper high over the 4 corners area strengthens some and builds over the area and monsoonal moisture decreases.
This is likely a result of high pressure off to our northeast which should result in a steady supply of dry air as sfc ridging becomes more firmly entrenched across the lower Missouri Vly.
In the upper levels, one ridge is centered over the desert southwest while the Bermuda ridge extends over the east coast of the country. That leaves a weakness/trough between those 2 features, which is where the local CWA ends up. The eastern side of the ridge to the west will gradually erode westward with time.
1106 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast ridges through the weekend. Mid-level troughing will linger into Friday, with lower heights digging a bit into the middle Ohio Valley. This activity will once again wane with the loss of heating during the evening, although a few showers may linger along the ridges into the night until troughing eases.
There is a weak surface cold front forecast to enter northern Wisconsin in the afternoon and move slowly south tonight and Saturday.
Cloudiness and precip will keep temperatures down, with high temperatures in the lower-mid 80s eastern counties. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Early morning temperatures range from the middle 60s near the Tennessee River to the low 70s near Memphis. The synoptic pattern will feature a ridge over the Rockies and Plains with a broad trough over the Eastern third of the US.
/issued 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ The center of our high pressure can be clearly seen rotating on satellite over the TX/OK Panhandles, and temperatures are certainly reflecting this on the West Texas Mesonet this afternoon. The ridge will begin to migrate westward late tomorrow, but not in time to provide relief from the heat. As the ridge keeps moving west, it will allow a frontal boundary to sink southward through our forecast area by Saturday morning. Temperatures will finally return to seasonal norms in the lower to mid 90s. As the ridge works westward, it will trap an upper level low just off the coast of the Pac-NW.
In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast today.
1145 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure across the Midwest will provide dry conditions across Illinois for the next couple of days, with any rain chances generally remaining west of the Mississippi River. High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will provide for dry conditions and mostly clear skies the next few days, other than scattered afternoon cumulus development. Dewpoints over central IL this afternoon are primarily upper 50s to around 60 as the high continues to push dry air into the region. Conditions will struggle to modify much if at all by Saturday, allowing for another cooler than normal night.
307 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure at the surface, northwest flow aloft, and a dry air mass reside over the area this morning. Thunderstorm activity is limited to the Plains where ample moisture and instability exist as part of the monsoonal flow moving around the upper level ridge centered in the southern Rockies. A weak short wave trough over ND looks to continue weakening as it rotates around the ridge.
Split upper trof with weaker northern disturbance tracking along and south of the Mason Dixon line early this morning. Isolated showers favoring the southern tier are all that's showing up on radar this morning, but that will change by later today as deep layer moisture is shunted northward thanks to increasing southerly flow ahead of stalled upper trof. Maxes will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The daytime on Saturday will feature more of the same as the weak and slow moving upper trough forces a wave of low pressure along the front stalled south of the area. Synoptically, there is a mean weakness in the height field over the region with the mean upper ridge over the western CONUS.
Split upper trof with weaker northern disturbance tracking along and south of the Mason Dixon line overnight. A weak upper level trough will help form a wave along the front that is stalled south of the area. Synoptically, there is a mean weakness in the height field over the region with the mean upper ridge over the western CONUS.
The North Dakota convection is closest to short wave trough and most HIRES models and deterministic models show this weakening as it moves east into MN this morning. At the moment we continued the lower chance PoPs along the northwest periphery of the area through the morning. Saturday could see better chance of isolated thunder across the eastern CWA as upper ridge builds east into MN and instability axis reforms over eastern MN during the afternoon. We look to remain in northwest mid/upper flow downstream of the western US ridge.
1156 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 800 PM CDT Our stretch of remarkably quiescent mid-summer weather continues tonight with sprawling high pressure overhead. Another tranquil night is on tap with lows dipping into the mid 50s across outlying locales and into the low to mid 60s closer to Chicago. It will be another cooler night with lows in the 50s outside of the urban center. Northeast winds will keep the lakeshore areas cooler again Friday with highs inland in mid 80s Friday, mid to even upper 70s at the shore.
354 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Mexico northeast to southeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania today. The trough will slowly shift east and dissipate tonight as a high pressure ridge builds east into the region.
High pressure remains over the area with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected. Expect temperatures to rise into the low 80s this afternoon with 70s along the lake.
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 For the 06Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites during this fcst period. A cold front will work its way south during the day Friday and stall over parts of the region. Winds will only shift to more westerly for KAMA for the same time period as the cold front may hold back until after the end of the TAF period. A cold front will enter the area late tonight and make some slow progression through the day tomorrow. Highs Friday will vary from around 90 or the low 90s in the north to the hot 100s in the south as compressional warming ahead of the front and a bit of downslope will give the southern TX Panhandle one more scorcher.
320 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 An upper level trough crossing the region will bring showers and thunderstorms today through tonight. Mostly cloudy skies should limit heating today with highs likely reaching the mid 70s to the low 80s.
The highest precipitation chances will be along the Mogollon Rim, with isolated activity elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed mainly over the higher terrain across northern Arizona today. For Friday into the weekend, expect continued daily chances for afternoon scattered thunderstorms mainly along the high terrain.
1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A large upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the Four Corners area. Monsoonal moisture has been riding over the ridge and bringing localized heavy rain to parts of the plains over the past few days. Convection may be focused on the nose of the low level jet. Expect highs in the low 80s.
Light W-WNW flow aloft persists over the region, on the N-NNE periphery of an upper level ridge. Upper ridge centered near the Four Corners to start the period will slowly migrate eastward to the southern plains by the end of the period. At the surface, a lee trough will be located near the Kansas and Colorado border area most days.
Ripples in the upper level flow should be topping ridge and moving across north/northeast WI during the day. Amplified upper level ridge holds across the west, leaving the Upper Mississippi River Valley under the influence of northwest flow.
Temperatures will again top out in the low to mid 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s likely along the lakeshore due to an onshore wind.
350 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue again today, with the upper ridge dominating. (Saturday through Friday) A chance for thunderstorms will return to the forecast beginning this weekend as a cold front pushes across the region.
In general, there will be a broad ridge located over the Rockies. However, the southwesterly flow associated with this ridge will have plenty of weak impulses of energy moving across the area.
With a meandering front boundary to our north and west and a trough to our south and east, chances remain fairly high for rain across the area once again today. The blocking pattern continues over much of the CONUS with an amplified ridge over the Rockies. The main trough axis and frontal boundary remain stretched through the Appalachians and into the Gulf States this weekend leading to increased thunderstorm chances for all of Central AL.
225 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as weak low pressure crosses the region. The broad pattern of Wrn CONUS ridging/Ern CONUS troughing remains in place. The axis of that trough is analyzed across the Upper Ohio Valley Region, although flow is weak and the thermal profile not impressive. Surface dewpoints/humidity will thus increase modestly and combine with seasonably warm temperature to destabilize the local atmosphere sufficiently for scattered showers and some storms with the trough.
Showers persist tonight, but mainly north and northwest of the area, closer to the Piedmont trough. A stationary front will remain north of the area today in association with an upper level trough. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover, and will mainly be in the upper 80s. Upper level trough will remain west of the area and a frontal boundary will remain stalled to our north and west.
337 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 The resident dry and stable environment will hold firm today, as conditions remain governed by lower amplitude mid level northwest flow and surface ridging.
Upper pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a deep trough over the eastern U. and a ridge across the Rockies and plains 00z Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 12z Mon with a trough over the eastern U. and a trough in central Canada. The trough in central Canada will dig into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and will remain in the area through Thu with the sfc front stalling to the south of the area.
328 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 The upper air pattern across much of the Nation will show only subtle changes through late Saturday with slight retrogression of the upper high/ridge centered in the southwestern U. and a slight westward shift in the trof axis stretching through central gulf coast, resulting in a continuation of north-northwest flow aloft through the mid MS Valley. The primary threat of showers and storms will remain across the Plains region in closer proximity to the low level baroclinic zone and deeper moisture and resultant instability. High pressure centered to the north-northeast will dominate the surface/low levels across our area bringing slightly below average temperatures and lower than normal humidity for early August.
337 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Southeast Texas remains on the eastern edge of upper level ridging centered off to our west and northwest.
Showers persist tonight, but mainly north and northwest of Columbia, closer to the Piedmont trough. with wet bulb zero lower due to the upper trough. Synoptic situation will remain largely unchanged with the frontal remains stalled over eastern TN and the upper trough just slightly eastward.
Water vapor analysis depicts a large anticyclone across the desert southwest, while troughing is stalled out across much of the eastern US. Further west, ridging was noted across much of the western Atlantic. Aloft, the trough axis will continue to be directly overhead the MRX forecast area.
154 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build eastward across our region today. High pressure centered over the Upper Great lakes will drift to the east across our region through this afternoon.
VFR conditions will persist through Friday under high pressure. High pressure will remain in place over Lake Michigan Friday into the weekend. VFR conditions will persist through Friday under high pressure. Medium to High High pressure will continue to dominate this period. The diurnal CU field has set up near some of the higher dew points in SC WI while rather low dew points in the 40s have prevailed in much of the eastern areas.
The main feature causing these thunderstorms is a weak stalled out frontal zone extending from the Lower Ms Valley to the Mid Atlantic. A big ridge will remain over the southern Rockies with another ridge over the western Atlantic. In between, a relative trough with very weak flow will persist.
137 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
The upper level ridge remains in control over Texas this morning. High pressure at the surface has the winds out of the southeast across our CWA. The ridge will keep the weather dry today and tonight. The upper ridge will move to the west and weak frontal boundary will move into North Texas.
/issued 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Early morning temperatures range from the middle 60s near the Tennessee River to the low 70s near Memphis. The synoptic pattern will feature a ridge over the Rockies and Plains with a broad trough over the Eastern third of the US.
An upper level trough crossing the region will bring showers and thunderstorms today through tonight. Mostly cloudy skies should limit heating today with highs likely reaching the mid 70s to the low 80s.
335 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Upper ridging over the region will guide hot temperatures into this afternoon with highs expected to top off well into the 90s.
An upper ridge was still positioned over the southern and central plains, but will build north today. Energy and moisture will stream around the ridge for thunderstorm chances, but energy looks weaker than the last couple of days and will get deflected north via building heights. The ridge will flatten out some on Saturday and this should limit convection potential, with a primarily zonal flow. The ridge will remain generally in place across the Rockies. However, there will continue to be a monsoonal moisture and weak energy riding under the ridge. This will result in the continued pattern of afternoon thunderstorms development over the mountains and then evening thunderstorms across the lower elevations.
A ridge will remain in the vicinity throughout the extended leaving the upper pattern in a northwesterly flow regime. Expect a slight warming trend each day throughout the extended ending with seasonable temperatures in the low 90s for the work week.
Ridge axis is show to shift in such a way we may see a lull in chances in this pattern Saturday (weak signal in our far northeast in the afternoon).
Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019 Fairly benign weather pattern in place, despite troughing aloft.
A lot of dry air associated with high pressure moving through Michigan will bring mostly clear skies through today. The resident dry and stable environment will hold firm today, as conditions remain governed by lower amplitude mid level northwest flow and surface ridging.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Southeast Texas remains on the eastern edge of upper level ridging centered off to our west and northwest.
641 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 The upper air pattern across much of the Nation will show only subtle changes through late Saturday with slight retrogression of the upper high/ridge centered in the southwestern U. and a slight westward shift in the trof axis stretching through central gulf coast, resulting in a continuation of north-northwest flow aloft through the mid MS Valley. The primary threat of showers and storms will remain across the Plains region in closer proximity to the low level baroclinic zone and deeper moisture and resultant instability. High pressure centered to the north-northeast will dominate the surface/low levels across our area bringing slightly below average temperatures and lower than normal humidity for early August.
Little change in the weather pattern over the West as High pressure aloft remains anchored over the Four Corners areas this Friday. The lack of any precipitation across the region is due to a stronger westerly component as disturbance ride over the high pressure ridge and help control the heat over the region. Yet, the flow pattern that has been maintaining the near normal temperatures will give way to a retrograding ridge back toward the West Coast. Short range model analysis is showing high confidence in allowing a disturbance to ride over the ridge and force it to retrograde toward California. While models are not strengthening the ridge toward excessive heat levels, the region will return to the triple digit category.
525 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted the center of the upper high over NM. Easterly low level flow and a moist boundary layer over the high plains was producing areas of low clouds and fog. Short range models/ensembles rebuild the upper ridge axis west of the Front Range, resulting in west to northwest flow aloft. It will be about 5 degrees warmer this afternoon with highs in the 80s lower elevations, with 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. Models/ensembles are in good agreement rebuilding the upper ridge over WY/CO Saturday.
Mid-level ridge will continue to shift west today toward the Four Corners region. Moisture is prog to increase today as a mid-level trough digs down from the southeast US into the western Gulf waters, with latest GOES imagery showing a swath of PWATs near 1. Influence from the ridge will maintain hot conditions today, with highs ranging from near 90 along the immediate coast to near 105 degrees toward the Rio Grande Plains. Due to this, did trend with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday across the east, although afternoon temperatures are still expected to range in the mid 90s.
530 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as weak low pressure crosses the region. The broad pattern of Wrn CONUS ridging/Ern CONUS troughing remains in place. The axis of that trough is analyzed across the Upper Ohio Valley Region, although flow is weak and the thermal profile not impressive. Surface dewpoints/humidity will thus increase modestly and combine with seasonably warm temperature to destabilize the local atmosphere sufficiently for scattered showers and some storms with the trough.
Easterly flow will remain in place, but with moisture increasing slowly from the east tonight and tomorrow expect warmer low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 40s. Warmer conditions expected tomorrow with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s. Dry weather is expected through Monday night with high pressure as the dominant feature. A chance of showers is expected for the northwest half of the area on Tuesday in association with this weak trough, but any showers that occur are expected to be light.
Modestly cooler temperatures are expected into the second half of the week, but still above average for this time of year. Rain showers will overspread the area from west to east late Monday night as a cold front approaches from the Midwest. The cold front will cross the region Tuesday night, but temperatures behind this front will only drop back to near to slightly above normal for early March.
Ridge will continue to slide off to the east throughout the day today leading to a somewhat persistence forecast through much of the daylight hours. This will bring along a cold front and associated precipitation. Overnight lows should be much warmer Monday night as low level winds keep drawing in warm southerly air and increasing clouds ahead of the front help keep radiative cooling limited.
A low pressure system will return rain showers to the region early Tuesday. Dry weather will continue through Monday as high pressure centered over the Carolinas drifts offshore. Continued southerly flow on the backside of the high will maintain above-average temperatures and result in increasing moisture/cloud cover through today. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient with the approach of low pressure, along with daytime mixing, will result in gusting winds near 25 mph this afternoon. This is due to the weakening of the sfc cold front creating limited lift, weak jet support aloft, and lack of instability to promote higher rainfall rates.
201 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure centered over the region will slip offshore Monday.
We had another nice day, although it was just a bit warmer.
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.