Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
443 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS THIS EVENING TO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EJECT TWO SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD.
359 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 The pattern across the Nation this morning is dominated by a messy progressive split flow with a significant trough axis to our east. However, despite the northwest flow aloft from the trough to our east, winds from the mid to lower levels have generally been prevailing from the south thanks to the split flow, helping lift temperatures above normal this past week. This trend will persist for another couple of days even as a weak cold front moves through. As for Saturday, despite the cold front Friday evening, temperatures Saturday will likely be similar to today's as the split flow pattern allows little cold to spill south.
1052 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TERMINALS AND WILL BRING IN A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5 KFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AS AIRMASS IS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT COOLING THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS. THE JET WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH DURING THE DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS PACIFIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE. SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WILL PUSH IN TOMORROW EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
1207 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. COLD NW FLOW WILL UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES AND SPPRT SNOW SHOWERS.
A POTENT TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE DESERT SW MON WITH CYCLOGENESIS RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL HEAD NE INTO OK/KS MON NIGHT. SURFACE: A PAC COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THRU THE WRN USA SAT AND WILL ARRIVE HERE SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES EMERGES INTO TX MON AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OK MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SE KS BY 12Z/TUE. SAT NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN SAT. MON-TUE: PREFER NOT TO ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE DETAILS AS THE FCST HEAVILY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS AREAS S AND E OF HASTINGS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
A broad upper level trough will continue in place over the western and central part of the U. On Friday, a weak cold front will push through western and central Kansas as the upper wave moves over the region. One more day of mild weather can be expected on Saturday as lee side troughing and south to southwest winds increase.
347 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY THIS MORNING AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY AND TEMPS ALOFT RISE. BY SAT AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE MORNING HELPING KEEP THE FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SWUNG INTO THE ATLANTIC. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL RESULT IN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE EVENING AND SPREAD A COOLER AIRMASS EAST ACROSS THE ZONES. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND TOWARDS COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FLAT, LOW PRESSURE TROF.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH BEING ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE TROUGH QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
At 02 UTC a cold front was moving across Southern Florida. Aloft, the main trough axis is moving through the forecast area with the mid and upper level cloudiness moving east of the region. Dry, cool advection will continue overnight and push temperatures into the lower 40s by daybreak. Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep things dry and sunny for the Friday and Saturday. As the high moves east, winds will become southerly bringing warmer air from the Gulf. Saturday will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
338 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A NICE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA TONIGHT.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 130M INDICATED ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERMAL AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM WEST TX THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD MT. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL US. BRINGING THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH IT AS 850MB TEMPS POP INTO THE 5-10C RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS BRIEF/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS COULD TEMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. IT WILL DRAG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
1209 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO ADJUST DOWN INITIAL SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BLANKETING THE REGION. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. COLD NW FLOW WILL UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES AND SPPRT SNOW SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWD TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA AS OF 07Z. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AS UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED. THOUGH WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL WATER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
252 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE A QUICK DUSTING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SOME BRIEF RADIATION. THINK THAT BRIEF RADIATION WILL STILL GET TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST.
WINTER STORM LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR THE IDAHO-WYOMING-UTAH TRIPLE POINT WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL START MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MIX WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE.
DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED TO NW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH. /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL ZONES OVER FLORIDA AND EAST GULF AND 1020MB HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO TRACK EAST LEAVING A WEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
113 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
1136 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Very mild temperatures continue to be the main story in the short term period, as ridging now over the High Plains pushes east and southwesterly flow develops throughout the low- to mid-levels, promoting mixing and an eastward translation of the 60s currently painted across much of western and central KS. Unseasonable warmth will continue into Saturday even in the wake of a weak cold front, especially as surface flow returns quickly back to the southwest by Saturday afternoon. In fact, lighter winds resulting from the weak boundary passages may make Saturday feel even a few degrees warmer than Friday.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD FOR THE AFT WITH SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING. THE CATALYST FOR THE WARMING AT NIGHT IS THE 50 KT SWLY LLJ AND THE RESULTANT 925-850 MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE EVENING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF LGT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NOT CONFIDENT THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE SRN CWA FOR PCPN.
UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
127 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER DURING THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT AND WARM EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW.
There are some mid and high clouds over southern MO/IL this morning due to activity on the southwest periphery of the ridge. As for high temps, they will remain a bit below normal in the low to mid 70s.
141 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOAT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT OVERALL EXPECT PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL COMPACT SHORT WAVES HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE TROUGH.
256 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY W-NW WINDS. AT THE SFC A TROUGH IS ALSO PUSHING THRU BRINGING WEST WINDS TO AREAS JUST WEST OF KDVL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA BY 15Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
329 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 FXUS66 KSTO 202138 AAA AFDSTO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 238 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 Dry weather continues with daytime high temperatures trending cooler going into early part of the week. High pressure will remain over the region, resulting in mostly clear skies for the early part of the week.
High temperatures expected to be in the upper 90s in the valley, low 90s in the foothills, and 80s in the higher elevations. NOO High pressure will remain in control as heights continue to build today.
HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE IN EAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW-DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH HEADED FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS BEGINS THE PROCESS OF ELONGATING THE 500 MB RIDGE. NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EASTERN SEABOARD TROUGH IS LOOKING LIKELY TO NUDGE A TAIL OF FRONTAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS/COASTAL BEND BY MID AFTERNOON REACHING THE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM NORTHEAST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN LINE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO COOPER LINE AND LEFT POPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
WEAK TROF IS CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS TODAY AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 ON MONDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD.
FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS/BROAD RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING NORTH TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING CONTROL. WARMER. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT WILL JUST NUDGE INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 High pressure dominating Central Illinois this morning, and will keep the fair weather in place over much of the Midwest. Winds should be relatively light, and mainly out of the east, although some variability should be expected under the ridge. Fairly weak pressure gradients associated with the high will bring light winds ranging from northeasterly to southeasterly. primarily I-72 northward where the lightest winds are occurring in close proximity to the high center. soundings indicate fog will be fairly shallow and patchy unless temperatures cool into the low 40s. cooler than expected at this time.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY.
552 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
553 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER AS WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/.
251 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER AS WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/.
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WHICH BRINGS KEEPS A COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
247 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
307 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS.
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EASTERN NC AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT WHERE CAA WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SC/GA. HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
208 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
MODELS SHOWED THICKNESSES LOWERING AFTER 06Z WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR FROM THE N WHICH WILL HELP THE WINDS OVER THE W TO DIMINISH. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA MON MORNING. GFS TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWED MOISTURE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN E TO SE ON TUE WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INVERSION AND LIMITED MIXING.
322 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS, BUT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF ESSEX COUNTY VERMONT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST OF AEX IS MOVING SOUTHWEST. CAVOK MID MORNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AND NWRN GULF. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ALOFT A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST LIFT OR MID LEVEL FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WITH BETTER CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
335 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST. WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS.
329 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SRN REACHES OF OUR REGION IN CNTRL LA WHERE SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AREA WIDE BY MID WEEK WHEREAS WE SHOULD BE AVERAGING MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN LATE SEPTEMBER.
157 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EASTERN NC AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT WHERE CAA WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SC/GA. HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
229 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON AXIS LOCATION AND PHASING OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. RESULTING IN SOME INVERTED RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND HYBRID WEDGE STARTING TO IMPINGE INTO THE EAST CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
248 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri. Dominant high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half of this week.
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN FILTERING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.