Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 100 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ /Through Thursday Night/ A narrow ridge is building over the area that will keep the weather somewhat stagnant and rain-free for the next day or two. Drier air will work its way into the region tonight from the southeast thanks to a backdoor cold front that moved into the eastern Gulf of Mexico yesterday. The drier air will help provide some overnight temperature relief with lows falling into the upper 60s vs the low 70s. Thursday night will be similar to tonight, but with slightly cooler temperatures.
149 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Mid and upper level ridging will maintain control over SE Michigan the rest of the day into tonight with convection upstream over NW and Mid Michigan tied to better instability across the western half of the state. A MCS over northern Lower has weakened significantly early this morning as it spills anticyclonically toward the southeast along the periphery of a 590 dam H5 ridge. Omega block remains well established across CONUS as a longwave trough lingers west of the Continental Divide and an Atlantic upper low retrogrades aggressively toward The Southeast. Minor height rises denoted with the gradual amplification of the expansive ridge axis which nudges daytime highs a few degrees upward, especially over the Saginaw Valley which becomes better aligned with the tilting thermal bubble.
1136 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Water vapor shows broad upper trof over the western CONUS with upper low over CA/NV. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with inverted trof extending through northeast WY into southwest ND. Large scale ascent will begin to increase later today, and especially tonight as upper low shifts into UT and begins to tilt negatively. Negatively tilted upper low will lift northeast across WY on Thursday and into eastern MT and western ND Thursday night. Showers and storms will remain likely from northeast WY into northwest SD in closer proximity to the upper low, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours, with generally less chances further southeast.
As for thunderstorm development Thursday, a cold front will begin to advance through the forecast area during the day.
Another hot and sunny day is expected across Middle Tennessee today as upper ridging continues to hold strong despite a closed upper low off the east coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 86 61 82 61 / 0 0 0 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 83 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 79 57 78 57 / 0 10 10 60 20.
Rain chances will increase by Thursday as low pressure funnels moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward toward the Appalachian Mountains.
218 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will maintain warm weather through the rest of the week.
Discussion: The forecast area has remained on the intersection of the upper high to the west and the upper trough to the west. The upper low will retrograde into South Carolina and Georgia on the day Thursday.
Expect this trend to continue throughout the evening hours as elongated 500 mb ridging remains in control over much of the eastern half of TX. /issued 501 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Elongated 500mb ridge axis extending from Texas to the Great Lakes will continue to provide subsidence over the area through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the southeast U. extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain an onshore flow across the lower Texas coast today into Thursday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s as sightly drier filters into the region.
/issued 1130 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ An upper level ridge remains over the Mid-South this morning. An upper level ridge almost over our area continues to dominate the Mid- South. Model continue to show a weak disturbance sliding along the eastern side of our upper ridge today, which could initiate convection over the Tennessee River.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): The RGV remains under a pretty persistent 500 mb blocking pattern with a large closed low over the western Atlantic and a strong and more progressive short wave moving over the Rockies. These two features are maintaining a persistent SW-NE oriented ridge axis over much of TX and the Central Plains States. The short range model guidance looks to dry out the atms just a bit throughout tomorrow night as the ridge axis edges just a bit more to the west. So will be going with single digit pops through tomorrow evening Since the 500 mb ridge axis remains entrenched over the RGV, persistence will be the word for the temp trends throughout the short term.
412 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather through Thursday with above normal temperatures. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight, with low RH conditions once again. This along with warmer temperatures should prevent much in a fall of temperatures area wide.
The main upper low, currently over the western CONUS, will be over the north-central Plains tomorrow. This will allow the dryline to mix east tomorrow as a cyclone forms near the Rockies, resulting in downslope winds over eastern New Mexico and the South Plains. Storms may form off the dryline near the Caprock tomorrow afternoon, but the upper trough appears too far north to allow for much upper-level support.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in eastern Nebraska/north central Kansas Thursday afternoon as upper level wave currently over the Rockies ejects northeast into the Dakotas.
242 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Hot and humid weather continues this afternoon and will continue through tomorrow under the influence of an unseasonably strong upper level ridge. With heights around 5920 meters over Missouri, the 500mb ridge is around 200 meters higher than climatological "average" for May 10th, andsomething we typically don't see until the dog days of Summer. The ridge will remain in place tonight and Thursday, although it will be increasingly squeezed between the next upstream short wave trough which will be moving across the Rockies into the Plains tomorrow, and the large closed low which will be drifting from the western Atlantic onto the Florida/Georga/South Carolina coast.
Upper low off the GA/FL coast will be retrograding and with the heat from the upper ridging over TX will be creeping slowly westward with some slight height falls late Thursday.
High pressure nosing down from upper New England will be in control on Thursday. The day will start off mainly clear, with some scattered Cu developing during the afternoon over the SE as the low off the Mid-Atlantic coast moves closer to the coast and some mid level moisture advects into the area. It'll be a few degrees cooler compared to today, but still above normal with afternoon high temps in the lower 80s.
High pressure will be to the north through Tonight, with an area of low pressure moving southwest off the coast of the Carolinas. The gradient between the high and low will continue to bring gusty onshore winds to the coast.
332 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 A ridge of high pressure situated to the northwest of the CWA will be pushed to the north Thursday evening.
344 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through tonight.
243 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 An unseasonably strong 500mb ridge is parked overhead today with its axis stretching from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf Coast. An isolated shower or storm still can't be ruled out across the east half of the region the rest of this afternoon, but chances appear quite low given the ridge overhead.
That in turn should allow the storms near us to fall apart or track northeast with the warm front. After around 10 pm, and then through the mid morning hours of Thursday, I expect mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures.
902 AM PDT Wed May 11 2022 A low pressure system moving inland from California into the Great Basin today will bring stronger onshore flow with a few degrees of cooling and with gusty west winds strongest in the afternoon.
An upper trough will move slowly eastward across our area today. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher elevations of SW Idaho and Baker County, Oregon. Dry conditions are expected across most of the remainder of SE Oregon and the lower valleys of SW Idaho (including the Snake Valley). Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s (around 10 degrees below normal).
112 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Update/Aviation We continue to see the back door cold front push the convection westward as we expected from our mid morning update. I increase the high temperature to near 90 from GRR south but lowered the highs northeast of Grand Rapids where the cold pool and actually back door cold front has already cut off any real warming the rest of the day. Given a substantial dew point gradient across the Lower Peninsula (richer low level moisture across western portions of the state) and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, a few storms may persist but inland extent will be limited and coverage will be small since the storms are fighting drier air above 700 mb and upper level ridging.
Not much change to the short term forecast as the Omega blocking pattern remains in place. Tonight we'll see lows in the low 70s with tomorrow's afternoon highs pretty similar to today but a degree or two cooler for most of the region.
246 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather through Thursday with above normal temperatures. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight, with low RH conditions once again. This along with warmer temperatures should prevent much in a fall of temperatures area wide.
As high pressure in the Gulf drifts closer expect winds to fully decouple inland overnight then SW flow after sunrise before coming back around to the SSE as the strongly capped airmass warms rapidly and backs the winds.
Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler as cooler air from northeast tries to work into the region.
121 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather through Thursday with above normal temperatures. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight, with low RH conditions once again. This along with warmer temperatures should prevent much in a fall of temperatures area wide.
A weak upper level low ejecting from the Great Basin into Wyoming will bring some wrap around precipitation tonight into Thursday morning, mostly in west-central and southwest Montana.
254 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Semi-active flow to continue through the end of the work week as an upper trough slowly advances over the region. Main upper trough will lift NE tonight and support a strong push of elevated theta-e across the FA.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key messaging highlights: * Severe storms briefly possible northwest into this evening, and again tomorrow evening * Continue warm and humid into tomorrow * More seasonal temps from the weekend into midweek with a few lower end storm chances Our higher amplitude pattern will essentially remain in place through the rest of the work week after the passage of the parent western CONUS trough and PV anomaly, now moving toward the CA/NV border. The warm front and associated convergence influenced by the synoptic pattern, MN outflow, and MCV to some degree, was now fully out of our forecast area leaving little low level focus this far south and east. Looking into tomorrow, another warm and humid day is in the offing with highs into the lower 90s.
Current readings are in the lower/mid 70s for most spots across the mid TN Valley, under mostly sunny skies. High pressure remains stacked over much of the region, thereby helping to maintain relatively quiet/seasonably warm conditions.
Deep moisture in the low to mid levels will see a cold pool aloft drift overhead in the form of an MCV in Nebraska. A strong trough of low pressure aloft will deepen over western ND which should allow for increasing divergence aloft. Upper level low pressure will keep west to northwest flow aloft which supports dry conditions and near normal temperatures. By mid week the models begin to diverge on solutions as to how to handle some troughiness that moves into the west coast and northern Rockies.
Gusty winds look to last a bit longer this evening along higher terrain and across northeast Arizona as a trough and associated cold front push through the region from the southwest. trough that has brought wind to the region over the past week is centered over central California/Lake Tahoe area this morning. The upper low and trough will dig southeast today and into southern Nevada this evening. Some areas of blowing dust are likely across the lower valleys of northeastern Arizona. Breezy winds continue tonight as the base of the trough swings through northwestern Arizona. Winds will gradually decrease and shift to the north overnight behind the trough passage. Temperatures will begin to warm for all but areas northeast of the Rim which will actually see a bit of cooling behind the trough passage.
Gusty winds and scattered light showers will dissipate overnight as an area of low pressure slides off to our east. Through next Wednesday Radar and ALERT Wildfire cameras confirm light rain and snow showers occurring under the upper trough as far south as the Panamint and Argus Ranges in Inyo County. Upper trough progged to continue east across southern Nevada the rest of this afternoon and evening. Blended in some of the camPoPs which expanded/increased the coverage in the higher elevations of southern Nevada.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon was showing the CONUS split with a deep trough to the west and well amplified ridge to the east. Meanwhile a surface warm front was lifting through the northern CWA. Surface reflection is progged to lift out of the the NE panhandle and into ND by afternoon with attendant cold front moving across NE.
The arrival of a cold front Thursday evening will produce showers and thunderstorms. There will be chances for rain this weekend as temperatures trend warmer.
Upper level analysis places deep trough over the western CONUS, with active southwesterly flow coming up into our area. Synoptically, aforementioned lobe of the upper trough continues its lift towards the northern plains, closing off over the western Dakotas by Thursday evening. The scenarios that could play out is that if the morning convection advertised by the high-res models come to fruition, strong storms will lift trough south central North Dakota in the morning, possibly tempering the potential for the afternoon convection to become strong, putting its focus further east out of our area.
235 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 The upper ridge that has been parked over the Mid-South this week will begin to retrograde back to the west and weaken as an upper level low pressure system moves westward from the East Coast to the Tennessee River Valley.
359 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Water vapor composite analysis highlights a continued amplified synoptic pattern across the CONUS, with a pesky cutoff low situated off the Carolina coastline, ridging across the Tennessee Valley, and a digging negatively tilted trough over the Pacific. The stubborn low is expected to open back up into a trough. The base of the trough will approach the Yucatan Peninsula and then stall for several days.
Dry conditions will continue through tonight as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the Central US. By Thursday morning, the ridge will be shunted westward as a large upper-level low, located over the Western Atlantic, begins to retrograde back towards the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a weak low pressure, in association with the upper low, moves into the Southeast US. Cyclonic flow around the low seems to push a sort of westward-moving frontal boundary/dryline across the region, entering our eastern counties Thursday morning, and pushing through our western counties by evening before stalling and weakening. As this surface boundary pushes through, the western periphery of the upper low will also begin entering our region. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.
1130 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 An upper level ridge remains over the Mid-South this morning. An upper level ridge almost over our area continues to dominate the Mid- South. Model continue to show a weak disturbance sliding along the eastern side of our upper ridge today, which could initiate convection over the Tennessee River.
315 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Anomalous upper-level ridging remains the story in this short term forecast period. Stratocumulus clouds are currently dissipating, due to the ridge bringing in subsidence and dry mid-levels.
(Thru Tonight) A ridge of high pressure aloft, extending from the Great Lakes south to the Sabine River valley, will maintain tranquil weather tonight. A gradual downward trend in dewpoints, mostly clear skies and subsiding winds overnight will allow overnight lows to dip a couple degrees or so cooler tonight compared to last night. A trailing cold front will move slowly southeast, approaching the region late Thursday night.
Our early taste of summertime temperatures (and humidity!) continues today as the strong upper ridge is oriented roughly from Texarkana to Chicago.
139 PM PDT Wed May 11 2022 A upper level trough moving inland from California into the Great Basin today will bring stronger onshore flow with a few degrees of cooling and with gusty west winds. Gusty west winds and cooler temperatures through this afternoon.
322 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Cool north wind will prevail through Thursday as low pressure offshore drifts toward the SW.
at 500mb low pressure was forecast to reside near Las Vegas with southwest flow ahead of it. Low temperatures are expected to range from the middle to upper 50s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to upper 60s east of the CO/KS border. the upper low center is expected to take on a negative tilt while lifting northeast into Wyoming by afternoon, continuing northeast toward southeast Montana by the end of the day then toward north central North Dakota overnight. Low temperatures fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s.
/issued 235 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ The upper ridge that has been parked over the Mid-South this week will begin to retrograde back to the west and weaken as an upper level low pressure system moves westward from the East Coast to the Tennessee River Valley.
High pressure to the north will bring light winds and mostly clear skies tonight. An upper level low off to the east will gradually move westward with an increase in mid/upper level moisture on Thursday. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 85 61 82 61 / 0 0 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 82 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 78 57 78 57 / 0 10 20 60 30.
A warm front will push into the area tonight with the best chance of precipitation along the coast and coastal counties and this is being supported by several of the high resolution models, and operational models.
Any low clouds are expected to clear rapidly aft 12/14Z as winds become sw-wly associated with an upper trough passing to the north of NM. Extremely dry, windy and dusty conditions continue today ahead of a cold front, forecast to push through early tomorrow and bring some cooling to central and western New Mexico.
946 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Cool north wind will prevail through Thursday as low pressure offshore drifts toward the SW.
717 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Cool north wind will prevail through Thursday as low pressure offshore drifts toward the SW.
305 PM PDT Wed May 11 2022 Slight shower chances today, otherwise dry and warmer weather beginning. The upper level trough that has brought unsettled weather to NorCal is pushing into southern NV this afternoon. We are seeing quieter weather today but it is bringing north to northwest flow over the area and we are seeing some weak instability over the higher elevations. A few light showers will be possible over the higher elevations into the early evening but chances will diminish quick once the sun sets.
825 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 No evening update changes to the forecast as high pressure maintains dry conditions and clear to partly cloudy skies through tonight with lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
526 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 A moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon ahead of an upper low over the Great Basin. The upstream low will eject across eastern Utah and into northeast Colorado tonight through tomorrow, pushing a mostly dry cold front through the area and bringing temperatures back down to near or below normal readings. Although winds will remain enhanced through tonight with the passage of the cold front, they should decouple and weaken from current magnitudes after sunset this evening. Little in the way of moisture will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area.
An isolated lightning storm later tonight can not be ruled out as cooler temps aloft move into the region. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s west of I-95 with the traditionally cooler locations dropping into the upper 50s, and mid 60s east of I-95. (Previous Discussion) Models indicate coastal troughing along the east coast as the mid-upper level closed circulation edges closer to the northeast FL coast. Isolated lightning storms will be possible late tonight as mid- level temps continue to cool with approach of an upper low.
939 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Another late spring night under a midsummer-like upper level ridge. /issued 235 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ The upper ridge that has been parked over the Mid-South this week will begin to retrograde back to the west and weaken as an upper level low pressure system moves westward from the East Coast to the Tennessee River Valley.
939 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Dry and warm weather is forecast to continue through Thursday under high pressure. High clouds will begin to build in from the southeast later overnight in response to a strong low pressure system tracking northwest into the eastern Ohio Valley. Highs will warm once again into the lower 80s, with overnight lows dropping to within a few degrees of 60. Blocky upper pattern with ridge over the region to undergo a transition as a large mid level cut off low retrogrades west into the southeast U.
The Florida Keys are on the western periphery of this low, which continues to keep winds from a northerly direction. Have increased PoPs in the Lower and Middle Keys for the first part of the night to account for this activity. Temperatures will drop into the lower 70s overnight.
613 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Hot and humid weather continues this afternoon and will continue through tomorrow under the influence of an unseasonably strong upper level ridge. With heights around 5920 meters over Missouri, the 500mb ridge is around 200 meters higher than climatological "average" for May 10th, and something we typically don't see until the dog days of Summer. The ridge will remain in place tonight and Thursday, although it will be increasingly squeezed between the next upstream short wave trough which will be moving across the Rockies into the Plains tomorrow, and the large closed low which will be drifting from the western Atlantic onto the Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast.
722 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 The strong H3 upper level ridge axis remains in place directly over Southeast Michigan this evening. Model data advertises the amplitude of the ridge axis will increase across northern Ontario and Quebec tonight, which will effectively increase the wavelength or retrograde the ridge back well into eastern and central Wisconsin.
654 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Dry and warm weather is forecast to continue through Thursday under high pressure. High clouds will begin to build in from the southeast later overnight in response to a strong low pressure system tracking northwest into the eastern Ohio Valley. Highs will warm once again into the lower 80s, with overnight lows dropping to within a few degrees of 60. Blocky upper pattern with ridge over the region to undergo a transition as a large mid level cut off low retrogrades west into the southeast U.