Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
124 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 High pressure at the surface will be shifting east this weekend. At the same time, an inverted low pressure trof aloft develops and extends across the lower to mid MS and TN valleys.
201 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TO GENERATE MORE CONVECTION TODAY.
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH FROM NRN FL TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
451 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN IDAHO AS GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 MPH CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER TODAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH EAST. AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PAC NW. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER AREA INTO THE WORK WEEK.
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BUBBLE OF WARM AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE 15.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES CANADA. SECONDARY UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA LATE. WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN UTAH. BUT SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST UTAH TODAY.
High pressure over the Four Corners region will strengthen resulting in a notable warm-up this weekend.
326 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GENERAL TROUGHING CONTINUED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY.
406 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WERE STILL PREVALENT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT WEAKEN.
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY.
AND A RIDGE OF UPPER 20S C TO LOW 30S C WILL EXTEND FROM THE KPIR AREA THROUGH THE KMBG AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES STILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEFORE 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH INSTABILITY /2000- 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE/ BUT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS IS ALSO THE TIMEFRAME WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON SAT UPR RIDGE FOLDS EWD ACRS THE LAKES W/APPRECIABLE HGT RISES ALOFT. OTRWS BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE UPR 80S-90 WILL BRIDGE MAX TEMPS HIGHER.
341 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DESERT FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST STATES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REMAIN IN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING DUE TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL THEN PASS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. AS MUCH AS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY.
THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND WITH IT, MUCH WARMER BL AIR WILL BUILD INTO NY AND PA.
15/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
Through Saturday night high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep our CWA dry. However, with time the northeastern and eastern edges of the ridge begin to weaken and retrograde a bit.
318 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A RESULT OF A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TX COAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
325 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO.
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS COOLS QUITE A BIT UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP. SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE VA/TN/NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOUNDINGS STILL APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT ISOTHERMAL IN THE MID LEVELS SO THINK IT WILL BE HARD FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME WEAK/STAGNANT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH TERRAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTRALIZED OVER THE SW CONUS. FOR SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING THAT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE WEEK.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE A WEAK WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR. UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN SQUARELY OVER KANSAS WITH AMPLE DRY AIR AND NO APPRECIABLE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST TO REMAIN PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
The highest rain chances will certainly be before 06Z when the loss of daytime heating helps stabilize the atmosphere, but cannot rule out isolated storms continuing past midnight along residual boundaries.
557 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT HAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAY BE A FACTOR FOR STORM FOCUS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TODAY WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LATEST NCEP/WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS OF 85F TO 89F. HOT AND MUGGY SUNDAY /MAX HI MID 90S/ AMID STOIC CAP WITH 7-5H LR NR 4C/KM AS EXTRUSION OF DESERT SW TO NRN PLAINS RIDGE SETTLES ACRS SOUTHERN GRTLKS.
A COOLER, DRY, AND WINDY SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS NO LONGER APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
Mid/high cloud cover slowly on the wane this evening with subsidence behind the upper trough axis taking over. Any sub freezing temps are expected to be highly localized and short in duration.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO ADVECT SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOK FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM AND TOI JUST BEFORE 00Z. AND DRIER/COOLER AIR WAS STARTING TO MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT FRONT.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ROTATING THROUGH KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A GENERALLY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE EXISTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY THE BMX AND OHX 00Z SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST WITH NW WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5-10 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS WELL.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS THE FCST AREA. CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S COASTAL.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS A WEAK TROF RUNNING FROM LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND IDEAL RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE ARKLAMISS. /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ INCREASING CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND A CONTINUED SURGE OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE UP SERVING TO KEEP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF.
815 PM MST FRI APR 1 2016 A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.
WARMER EVERYWHERE FOR SATURDAY. 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUED TO SHOW A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE AND AN AXIS OF WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON.
1056 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
/issued 351 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) Winds from the north will continue for most of the next 24 hours, and temperatures will be cooler than seasonal normals.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DOWNSLOPE.
607 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGHLIGHTS: NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES. /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A BROADER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA WIDE. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A BROADER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA WIDE. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
840 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGHLIGHTS: NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
AND CLOUDS WILL STAY AT VFR LEVELS AS THEY SCATTERED OUT OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS MOVING EAST OF THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF ALOFT THAT EXTENDED FM TX BACK TOWARD NEW MEX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FM THE COAST OF SE LA SW TOWARD NERN MEXICO. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD STORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE SHALLOW AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LVL TROF. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
1011 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NIGHT TIME BUT DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ON TEMPERATURES LEAN MORE ON THE BLEND OF MAV AND ECS AS THE NAM TREND HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER BIAS. THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH CAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. MAIN FOCUS TOMORROW IS ON DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT PLUS 3H JET.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AS 700 MB TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
Despite temperatures dropping into the lower 30s tonight, enough mixing of the low levels looks to keep any frost more patchy in nature and after coordination with surrounding offices will not be issuing any advisories tonight. On Saturday, dry airmass remains in place with the center of the high still off to the west of the area, but nudging closer. wind speeds should drop off quickly Saturday evening as the center of the high then drifts across the area.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT WAS STRUNG OUT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST U. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EASE EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY A 2 AM AND SUNRISE WINDOW. HOWEVER WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AND INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXITS THE STATE SUN.
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WITH TIME AS SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVE INTO IT. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY HIGHS.
FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF HAS ENDED AND HAS LEFT EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE TROF NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AND IS AWAITING NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY PUSHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS TROF AXIS AND NEXT TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NE FL AND UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA.
730 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FLURRIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
AND THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST THERE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
1156 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FLURRIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
1158 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 64 39 63 / 30 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 61 34 60 / 30 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 62 34 60 / 30 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 58 31 54 / 30 10 10 0 NC.
/ISSUED 1011 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM AND TOI JUST BEFORE 00Z. AND DRIER/COOLER AIR WAS STARTING TO MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT FRONT.
Have kept close to most guidance with lows right near freezing, and expect locations protected from a westerly wind to see sub-freezing values at least briefly, but am not confident in a widespread freeze for a Warning. Weak surface ridging moves in again in the afternoon for weakening winds as RH values drop into the 20s and 30s so fire weather conditions do not look too threatening. Period starts off with a west coast ridge and a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
522 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.
620 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN IA NEAR THE WEAK TROF AXIS.
623 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE A COMPROMISE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF TEMPS. THE RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F.
721 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE. /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.