Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This wave will drag down some cooler temperatures aloft today as it moves over the state. Areas north of I-96 have the highest chance of seeing showers.
In regard to temperatures, have highs rising 80s, which coupled with dry northwesterly flow - should remain fairly comfortable as dewpoints remain in the low to mid 50s. Upper level ridging begins to build overhead Wednesday, allowing sfc winds to turn more southeasterly. As a result, expect highs to be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Currently have values ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s, with the highest values along the MO River Valley.
956 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through region today and be southeast of the area by this evening. High pressure builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front was approaching the I-71 corridor this morning. Highs will range from the lower 80s across west-central Ohio to the upper 80s into northeast Kentucky. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s. A weak secondary cold front and upper level vorticity max swing through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Forecast highs are in the lower to middle 80s.
420 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Surface level southerly flow is expected to be restored today due a a warm frontal boundary lifting north of the Hwy 84 corridor.
237 AM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Slightly cooler, but still hot today, especially over the Northern Sacramento Valley. Four corners upper high extending northwest over California will bring another hot afternoon, but not as hot as Yesterday. Upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest Today will bring increasing southwest flow providing a slight cool down back into the 95 to 105 range for Valley locations. Upper trough will then pass through Oregon Wednesday further increasing southwest onshore flow with high temperatures falling back into the 90's for most Valley locations. A batch of monsoon moisture is lifting northward ahead of the trough, but will remain east of the Sierra over Nevada.
Anderson (Issued 411 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022) Today through Wednesday: We are in a slightly cooler air mass today than yesterday, so expect highs in the lower to mid 80s rather than the mid to upper 80s. An upper trough will swing down through WI late this afternoon through late evening. The upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but there will be drier air in place and minimal instability. Temperatures will be much cooler by the lake on Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
520 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region today with the encroachment of a cold front. Models are not in good agreement with the timing or the evolution of convection with the cold front.
High pressure continues to be located over Central Montana today, bringing in quiet and dry conditions.
559 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, skies were clear, and temperatures were still warm for the most part, with most locations in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front was moving through the South Plains, and this front will make its way into our forecast area by around sunrise, and make its way down into the I-10 corridor around the afternoon hours. However, this cold front won't really impact temperatures much today.
Water vapor satellite imagery and heights early this morning have the 500mb trough axis shifting east of the area with a mid level ridge from Alberta through the Great Basin/Rockies.
722 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Broad troughing over the eastern third of Canada and CONUS will continue to dominate our region this morning and today. In their wake, continued warmer and moist airmass over head has kept temps largely in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Aided by cooler air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates and dinural heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Broad troughing with weak embedded waves will encompass much of the Great Lakes Region early in the forecast period. Wednesday, a very subtle wave will drift through the forecast area early in the day, but no impacts are expected with strong high pressure in place at the surface. And, strong ridging aloft will replace the aforementioned broad trough by afternoon.
Seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s.
/AJ/ Surface level southerly flow is expected to be restored today due a a warm frontal boundary lifting north of the Hwy 84 corridor.
After some morning sunshine, SCT-NMRS showers and thunderstorms will develop in association with the wave and a weak clipper low pressure system. The showers and storms should depart by midnight, but patchy fog and low clouds may form as a back door cold fronts sags south through the area overnight. High temperatures today should range from the lower to middle 70s in north central WI and near the lakeshore, to around 80 degrees in central and east central WI. Clouds will decrease as Canadian high pressure builds into the region on Wednesday. It will be a little cooler, with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
The rest of the forecast continues to look dry as a ridge aloft expands northeast over the Northern Plains.
Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge axis off to our west over western CONUS slowly edging eastward. Surface obs showed northwest winds across the state with weak high pressure centered over northeast MT/Northwest ND.
1102 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region today with the encroachment of a cold front. Updated focused on increasing PoPs this morning, as scattered light showers have formed over the region due to a passing prefrontal trough. As noted previously, overall moisture levels in the column will act as a limiting mechanism against widespread convective development ahead of today's crossing cold front, especially across northern and western portions of the CWA.
An increase in onshore flow due to a low pressure system approaching the West Coast will continue to support onshore flow over the region leading to slightly cooler temperatures with tomorrow being the coolest day of the week with near normal high temperatures. Winds could gust as high as 20 to 30 mph in the Delta with breezy conditions possible for the Delta influenced areas, Sacramento Valley and over the high Sierra. Ensemble guidance is in agreement our region will continue to be between high pressure centered over the Four Corners and troughing off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
The potential remains for isolated convection late this afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, so will leave the low pops in that area.
It will be warmer, with most locations in the 90s this afternoon. Quiet and dry conditions continues across Southwest and North Central Montana as upper level ridging remains over the Northern Rockies.
As high pressure continues to take control in the wake of the cold frontal passage, dry weather, along with seasonal temperatures and humidity levels can be expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the upper levels, a strong ridge will remain parked over the southwest U. Meanwhile troughing will persist across the eastern U. This places our area in northwest flow, allowing disturbances to ride around the periphery of the ridge and dive south into the lower Ohio Valley.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 High pressure near Kansas City has produced mostly to partly sunny skies across the region this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower and mid-80s. A weak cold front will move southeast into east-central Iowa and northern Illinois late tonight.
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front has moved into central Arkansas and will stall in this area. VFR conditions expected through the period, a cold front will slowly work its way south across the area. Today Through Wednesday Night As of 07z, many ob sites across the area indicate temperatures are as much as 9 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. At the sfc, a cold front will be working its way southward into the state from southern Missouri.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight ) The cool front has moved to near the I-40 corridor this afternoon and is ushering in some slightly cooler and drier air across northern half of the forecast area. With the drier air in place and northerly winds, overnight lows will dip down into the low to mid 60s for some, with low 70s common across the region overnight.
342 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will follow on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front will clear the southeast reaches of the CWA this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for mostly clear skies.
/TW/CR/ Upper ridging remains centered over the Four Corners region with a northern stream trough extending through the Midwest to Ohio Valley. Low-level thermal ridge extends east into the Lower Mississippi Valley with 850mb temperatures of 20-22 C supporting afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. /TW/CR/ Prior discussion below: Surface level southerly flow is expected to be restored today due a a warm frontal boundary lifting north of the Hwy 84 corridor.
1244 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies expanding into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis will continue to shift east through mid week, with gradually warming temps and mainly dry conditions.
This upper ridge will dominate the outlook of not just this week, but the one to follow.
The strongest of the convection will see brief downpours, gusty winds and possibly some small hail with a low chance of a severe storm with winds to 60mph and 1" hail as 40kts of bulk shear exist within the cold pool and relatively low freezing level. The upper level trough that gave us showers and storms days prior continues to bring slightly unstable air down from Canada this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be around climate averages to slightly above normal as highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Expect temperatures to continue to rise Wednesday and into the end of the week as a ridge begins to build over the western and central United States.
Current temps in the 70s with a few spots in the low 80s. Water vapor imagery this morning shows upper ridge axis off to our west over western CONUS, with dry northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Today will be the start of the warming trend as the upper level ridge axis progresses east through Montana this week. The ridging pattern aloft will generally stay the same through the week. This synoptic scale ridge is from a broad area of high pressure over the four corners region. The ridge axis will slowly progress eastward through Montana this week, along with a co located 850mb thermal ridge.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, and storms have already begun to develop in KY just ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are providing plenty of moisture, and strong instability is in place across the mid state. Conditions should be dry Wednesday night as the Midwest trough slowly moves east.
Hot conditions will continue through the week as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Further west, several patches of cumulus fields are noted over the higher terrain of Lincoln County in the wake of this mornings light thundershower activity, and with some added daytime heating expect a few additional thunderstorms to spout across the terrain features of Lincoln county and drift north. This will allow for a very modest cooling of surface temperatures by a couple of degrees, and add fuel for some additional thunderstorm activity across mainly Northwest Arizona and the higher terrain of southern Nevada.
315 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Latest surface analysis places the cold front NE-SW roughly parallel and just south of the OH River. High pressure will build in across the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies, light NW winds, and dew points in the low 60s. Well-behaved Omega blocking pattern will experience little change during the first couple of days as a mid-level high/ridge persist throughout the West and north-central US while cyclonic flow and below-normal heights in the northeast Pacific Ocean and Northeast US flank it.
The upper air pattern across the CONUS will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure centered to our west across the Rockies and a trough of low pressure to our east stretching from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Region. CVKING High pressure building into the Midwest will provide VFR conditions and a light northerly wind through the forecast period.
Above the surface, upper ridging over the southwest will start to nose into the area, allowing temperatures to warm to near 90 across the area with some reaching the lower 90s.
334 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The weather will become increasingly unsettled through the week as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s away from the beaches.
Strong high pressure is still in place over the region with temperatures a couple degrees less than this time yesterday. The ridge will be in place through the weekend leading to continued above normal temperatures through the weekend. Southeast/east steering flow will try and push the storms off the mountains into the lower deserts.
The trailing weak convergent boundary and cooling 850- 700 mb temps within the trough axis could provide a focus for isolated shower redevelopment during the mid aftn hours tomorrow, with some embedded thunder possible as weak mid layer CAPE develops away from the lake shadow.
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda reaches west to South Florida. Cumulus streamers along the Lower Keys are suppressed.
Forecast Highlights: - Cooler and less humid today and tomorrow. - Warmer with increasing humidity for the end of the week - Little to no precipitation all week Today will be cooler and noticeably less humid behind the exiting cold front. Any precipitation will likely be short-lived as the wave is favored to fall apart and give way to a building upper- level ridge. This ridge will be the dominate feature for the end of the week. We'll see a return of the heat and humidity as the ridge continues to build to our west. There are some indications that a wave and associated cold front may ride the periphery of the ridge and swing through our area this weekend. Light north winds today become variable overnight as high pressure moves overhead.
Although temperatures are generally a few degrees cooler across the area today, we still expect them to warm into the 103 to 107 degree range.
Highs a in the low 80s for most of the area with lakes country seeing upper 70s. After this time, best storm chances will likely be due to periodic impulses riding the periphery of the ridge as the axis locates more directly over Northern Plains.
Water vapor imagery shows us in northwest flow aloft with the main ridge axis to the west over the Rockies. Expect warmer highs tomorrow in the 90s as the ridge axis pushes east and becomes more centered over the Plains. In the evening, a small perturbation moves through the ridge and could help set off an MCS just to the west of the CWA.
1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The overall upper air pattern over North America continues to feature a general western ridge and eastern trough with our area largely caught in the northwest flow in between. Early this morning we find ourselves behind yesterday's cold front with a northerly wind gradually bringing in some cooler and eventually drier conditions. With the lower humidity we'll be able to fall off better at night tonight as well, with most areas reaching the mid 60s. The upper ridge to our west amplifies and shifts a bit eastward as well, so we'll have access to a little bit warmer air.
1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, skies were clear, and temperatures were still warm for the most part, with most locations in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front was moving through the South Plains, and this front will make its way into our forecast area by around sunrise, and make its way down into the I-10 corridor around the afternoon hours. However, this cold front won't really impact temperatures much today.
135 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A crossing cold front will provide showers and thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh.
133 PM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Above average temperatures continue today as the Four Corners Ridge remains in place. Isolated showers and storms could occur over the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada later this afternoon. Smoke continues to get forced northward as southerly transport winds from being on the western periphery of the four corners ridge continues. In terms of heat, afternoon highs remain elevated today due to the ridge of high pressure's influence.
While a few locations may see the upper 90s, dew points remain in the low 70s which is keeping our heat index values in the 90s. An associated low pressure system will push a cold front into the Southeast overnight.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 87 70 86 68 / 30 60 30 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 68 87 67 / 40 40 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 67 87 67 / 50 30 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 64 84 63 / 60 30 20 20 10.
1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge further north now over the Four Corners Region, with northwest flow over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving over Nebraska, extending down into the forecast area. Today highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the ridge building slightly further northward. Late in the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Tonight the short wave trough will move over the forecast area. Wednesday the upper level ridge to the west continues to build northward. This will cause highs to be warmer still. During the latter half of the afternoon through the evening an upper level short wave trough will move over the eastern part of the forecast area.
222 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through region today and be southeast of the area by this evening. High pressure builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front was approaching the I-71 corridor this morning. Highs will range from the lower 80s across west-central Ohio to the upper 80s into northeast Kentucky. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s. A weak secondary cold front and upper level vorticity max swing through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Forecast highs are in the lower to middle 80s.
935 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Sent an update this morning simply to fine tune the wind and temperature forecast under a dry and warming ridge of high pressure. A broad upper level ridge is slowly building across most of the western US and the Canadian Prairies. Highs will be near 100 or warmer in many areas on Wednesday which will be warm enough for a Heat Advisory.
350 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Upper ridge centered over the Rockies continues to extend into the region but is weakening on the eastern edge. A slow moving cold front will continue moving through the forecast area tonight and Wednesday before stalling over north MS by Wednesday evening.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is centered over/near the Four Corners region and extends over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Temperatures are a little bit cooler today behind a cold front. Temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 70s, and high temperatures on Wednesday will be a degree or two cooler than today.
Upslope flow in the low levels will help aid in the not as hot temperatures behind yesterday's cold front dropping into the mid 60s overnight. Winds will turn more southerly as leeside troughing off the northwest flow aloft from the Rockies increasing to 20-30 mph gusts by the peak heating of the afternoon.
Our relief from the heat remains short lived with temperatures returning to the low and mid 90s tomorrow as the upper ridge axis parked over the Rockies builds and expands east over the area.
"Cooler" afternoon high temperatures, in the upper-80s to low-90s, are forecast through this evening. Portions of far southeastern Kansas/southwest Missouri, where precip/mid clouds lingered into the early afternoon, may run a few degrees cooler than areas further east. Wednesday: The ridge-trough pattern across the CONUS will slide further east during the day, placing the Ozarks further beneath the western US ridge. The result will be a dry and warm day, with afternoon highs in the low-90s areawide. Generally good agreement exists among ensemble members in showing a rather pronounced western US upper ridge into the weekend.
203 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Broad troughing over the eastern third of Canada and CONUS will continue to dominate our region this morning and today. In their wake, continued warmer and moist airmass over head has kept temps largely in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Aided by cooler air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates and dinural heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Broad troughing with weak embedded waves will encompass much of the Great Lakes Region early in the forecast period. Wednesday, a very subtle wave will drift through the forecast area early in the day, but no impacts are expected with strong high pressure in place at the surface. And, strong ridging aloft will replace the aforementioned broad trough by afternoon.
Strong high pressure is still in place over the region with cloud cover slowly diminishing. High temperatures will also be warmer than normal but a few degrees less than yesterday. Tucson itself has a bit of warmer air above 500 mb which limits its instability. Expect convection to start in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties early this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain at first. /issued 324 AM MST Tue Jul 12 2022/ A ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to keep temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average, even with the moisture increase we've been seeing. As the ridge slowly weakens we'll see a more favorable temperatures profile for storms with a couple of degrees of cooling through the week. An easterly impulse rotating around the high from northern Texas could focus storms later in the week.
A cold front will move through tonight leading to drier weather for the rest of the week. A weak trough or two may pass through in mid- week before high pressure takes over for a couple of days and into the weekend. However, cooler flow and moisture trapped under the developing inversion will create many clouds for the Alleghenies and Laurels. A couple of minor short waves/vort maxes roll in from the NW Wed as the main upper trough digs by just a tiny amount. The highest coverage will be N of I-80.
Wednesday will be similar to today as the mid to upper level ridge persists over the four corners region, with Southeast Texas on the eastern periphery.
233 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will remain centered over the Four Corners area with a low-level thermal ridge extending east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will help push a trailing surface cold front south into northern Arkansas and Tennessee by tomorrow morning. Temperatures within the aforementioned thermal ridge ranging from 20-22 C will help afternoon high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s, which combined with increasing moisture will yield heat indices of 105-110 degrees for much of the area.
Isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain, this afternoon through Wednesday.