Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In addition recent water vapor imagery and guidance indicate an elongated upper level trough extending across the Bahamas to south of Cuba.
330 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will progress through central NC this morning, stalling near the coast in the afternoon. The front will begin to return northward as a warm front on Thursday. The deep moisture plume has pushed offshore southeast of the area, with thinning of the high cloudiness.
Temps currently in the lower to upper 50s under clear skies. Thinking many areas likely to remain dry into Thursday morning as it will be difficult to significantly and rapidly saturate the column on the heels of a large area of high pressure. Uttech A cold front will push through the forecast area Thursday and Thursday evening.
1115 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 As of early this afternoon thunderstorms were firing over the San Juan Mountains with outflow boundaries spreading to the southwest toward the lower elevations of the Four Corners. Convection was approaching thunderstorm stage over all ridgelines in the forecast area and storms were over Before 4 pm thunderstorms will little rain and gusty winds should be over the area currently in a Red Flag Warning in southwest CO and southeast UT. Today's convection will further moisten the lower levels so more storms will be rain-producing over SW and central CO and SE UT. Following passage of weak upper trough drier air will begin filtering into the area from the west on Thursday, especially over NE UT and NW CO.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the western/central United States through the period, keeping the jet stream over Montana. The upper ridge will strengthen a bit for Wednesday, but enough mid level moisture will be present to allow a few weak isolated thunderstorms to develop over the western mountains during the late afternoon and move out over the plains through the evening hours.
Northerly winds have dropped off some, and will continue to do so into tomorrow with high pressure.
Highs today will be still be slightly below normal from teh mid 70s north central to the lower 80s southwest. For Thursday, a north to northeasterly flow Thursday both at the surface and aloft will produce a dry and cooler day behind a departing cold front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
As for temperatures went a degree or two cooler than the previous grids due to the cloud cover and dropped the west central even more given the precipitation chances through the day.
A large high pressure ridge prevail over the Great Basin for the remainder of the week.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the Great Basin throughout the remainder of the week.
High temperatures will settle lower over the next couple of days to the upper 80s and 90s due to increased cloud cover and a slight contraction of the four corners ridge with 500mb heights falling slightly over the next few days.
700 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will progress through central NC this morning, stalling near the coast in the afternoon. The front will begin to return northward as a warm front on Thursday. The deep moisture plume has pushed offshore southeast of the area, with thinning of the high cloudiness.
20 The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will slowly weaken and shift off to the west late this work week. as an upper-trough over the Eastern CONUS amplifies.
Temperatures should be cooler and potentially could be cooler if clouds and upslope are more than expected.
557 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will move slowly east across the Tri-State region early today. Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Thursday.
Convective complexes riding through this flow around the western ridge will impact portions of the central Plains and mid Missouri River valley today and tonight.
454 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Sfc ridging has begun to build Swd into the region this morning. Upper ridging centered over the Four Corners Region remains progged to shift E into W TX Thursday. It/s attendant weak cold front should stall near the KS/OK border E to near the MO/AR line by Thursday night.
337 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Decaying upper ridging will exit to the SE today, allowing for mostly sunny skies and increasing return flow from the SW.
High pressure over the region will result in continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Eastern-South Texas remains on the eastern periphery of the large scale ridge centered over the 4 corners area and along the western end of an upper trough extending across the northwest-northern Gulf of Mexico. The higher moisture values and the shear line remain along the Rio Grande River through Thursday with some limited drier air working into the northwest zones as the center of the upper ridge edges closer.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week. The low level winds may lay down enough for some predawn river valley fog. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. with high pressure in control.
Spectacular weather is expected through Thursday evening with high pressure firmly in control.
The high will allow for cooler than normal temperatures and lower humidity to persist through Thursday.
Periodic chance of storms will remain across the area tonight and Thursday as additional weak short waves come through the flow but little focus until cold front drops into the area on Thursday.
With Td's lingering in the upper 40s to lower 50s, expect surface temps to continue to radiate optimally into the lower 50s prior to daybreak. Although with cooler air advecting south/southeast late Thur aftn/eve, and modest steepening to the low/mid level lapse rates, it is conceivable that POPs could indeed become likely for a short period of time. Expect clouds to slowly become mostly cloudy late Thur aftn, which should allow surface temps to reach at least 80 to the lower 80s.
Light north winds decouple after sunset, allowing for good radiational cooling and Thu morning lows a few degrees cooler than what we start off with this morning.
148 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will move slowly east across the Tri-State region today.
A slightly discernible trough axis is draped across our area with a cold front positioned across northern MS/AL/GA. Aloft, mid level troughing was deepening across the eastern CONUS stretching southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Convection will also develop in the low level convergence area associated with the slight wind shift across the central and northern portions of the AOR.
The strongest over this short term period will slide in Thursday, and be associated with a sfc cold front. Look for the cold front and showers/ts potential to sink mainly S of the CWA by around 12Z Thursday. Not expecting widespread convection with the cold front.
Canadian high pressure over the region will gradually drift south today and tonight, and will continue to bring dry weather to the region.
The inverted trough that has been the primary feature is currently located over central Nevada and continues to move off to the north. Recent satellite loops showed a well defined circulation moving over central Nye county this afternoon which was associated with the inverted trough that has been responsible for bringing a modest increase in moisture. The most active area so far has been central Mohave county up to the eastern fringes of Lake Mead where the highest pocket of moisture and instability has resided in the wake of the inverted trough.
141 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
Upper level ridge just to the east of the forecast area will continue to dominate the weather through Thursday. Temperatures remain about 15 degrees above normal today, but start to drop off ever so slightly on Thursday as the flow aloft starts to become more zonal and the ridge inches off toward the east.
A mid/upper level ridge is helping to push a weak boundary southward across E TX this afternoon. However, am not expecting severe weather due to some inhibition from the ridge aloft. The better tsra chances then shift offshore by Wed night as the mid level ridge builds farther south across S TX.
Some showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night as a cold front moves though.
Ridging remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over the Eastern US.
Better focus for storms through early morning will be along the lower I-29 corridor toward the lower Missouri valley, with the primary threat some brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning with stronger storms. Temps probably not a great deal different today than yesterday, locally a bit cooler with clouds and precipitation.
402 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will move slowly east across the Tri-State region early today. Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Thursday.
The best environment for thunderstorms through the overnight hours will be across our western zones and this is where we will continue to carry the highest chances. The 12z NAM and GFS are the most optimistic in our area finally catching some rain with the highest likelihood across western zones. Overall the high temperatures should be more pleasant than what we had through most of June with highs only around 80 to the lower 80s on most days.
The period will start with a NE-SW oriented cold front draped across middle portions of the WFO MPX coverage area with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing. The front will be ushered along by a 500mb trough axis originating from an upper level low over Hudson Bay, extending southwest into the Dakotas. Both the upper level trough and the surface cold front will continue to progress southeastward during the day on Thursday, dragging associated showers and thunderstorms with it such that by Thursday evening, any and all lingering precipitation should be out of the coverage area, leading to a dry nighttime period. The trough will pivot to take a more N-S orientation as it crosses Lake Michigan, leading to solid NW flow aloft in its wake.
452 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure over the area will help keep pleasant weather through Thursday with relatively cool temperatures and low humidity. Pleasant weather with low humidity can be expected today with a high pressure system over the region. A few daytime clouds should dissipate early tonight, allowing one more cool night with lows in the lower 50s. The high pressure system will move east Thursday allowing return flow to begin; however, moisture return will be very limited.
High pressure ridging will continue today into Wednesday. Several weak disturbances under this ridge, mainly over the Great Basin area, will drift north then east across south central Montana. A few days ago the extended range progs were trying to drop an upper low into the Pacific NW this weekend. Overall model solutions have trended closest to the ECMWF, and now have the trough/short wave track across canada. This will tend to flatten out the ridge across the northern Rockies for the holiday weekend.
High pressure over the region will result in continued very warm and dry conditions inland through the work week. The stronger onshore flow should result ins slightly cooler temperatures inland.
235 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 A 1023 mb high pressure system centered over the upper Midwest early this morning is progged to slip slightly southeastward and weaken a bit today as it becomes centered over central IL by afternoon. Main cloud cover today, however, should be some shallow afternoon cumulus buildup, although this will be less prevalent today than yesterday given the lower dewpoints continuing to filter into the area. The coolest area looks to be east of I-55, in the upper 70s, as this area will continue to see weak cold advection east of the high pressure center.
358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridge over the 4-corners region will move slowly southeast towards West Central Texas today. Have a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-10 from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora where a dissipated cold front may provide a focus for development. Otherwise temperatures today are expected to rise to highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Temperatures should be cooler and potentially could be cooler if clouds and upslope are more than expected. This pattern consists of an upper level trough to the east and a high pressure ridge to the west, resulting in the common "northwest flow" setup.
440 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will move slowly east across the Tri-State region early today. Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Thursday.
These systems are moving within the anticyclonic flow around an upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to develop eastward across the Texas and the Southern Plains over the next few days, bringing a return to the hot dry weather across North and Central Texas for the rest of the week.
High temperatures will continue to run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances will be very few and far between.
238 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure builds in for Today. Cooler for the remainder of the week. As the upper trof moves east of the CWA. High pressure builds in for today and tonight bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidities into the region. Broad longwave trough cycles through a few disturbances, so kept a low threat for PoPs through the period - best chance is mainly in the mtns.
405 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will progress through central NC this morning, stalling near the coast in the afternoon. The front will begin to return northward as a warm front on Thursday. The deep moisture plume has pushed offshore southeast of the area, with thinning of the high cloudiness.
351 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure over the northern Great Lakes will build over the local area through Thursday evening.
Surface analysis and observations show a weak trough line that stretches through the extreme western portions of the FL panhandle northeastward to southwestern GA. The 18z upper level analysis depicts ridging across the western states with troughing across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front stretches from the central Plains eastward to the northeast states. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. A large, broad, upper-level trough will cover just about the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. Highs will be near normal, in the lower 90s.
Temperatures today should be fairly close to what we saw yesterday as models show little change in the atmospheric profile across the area, although any remnant cloud cover from the MCS across Kansas may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over the Rolling Plains. This heat will supplied by an upper ridge that will migrate from the Four Corners early this morning to the center of Texas by late week. As the center of the ridge shifts to our southeast we will see a plume of monsoon moisture be drawn around the west and northwest periphery of the ridge.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible across the region through the night as a weak trough remains in place over the area. Locally heavy rainfall has also occurred with the heavier convection given the high PWAT airmass. The boundary will continue to slowly sink southward into the region tonight, and with a deeply moist airmass remaining in place, not to mention the upper trough axis continuing to stretch across the area, will keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast through the overnight hours.
Northwest upper level flow continues over the central US with a seasonal hot ridge extending from the Four Corners Region north into the Canadian Rockies. A cold front will drop south through the area on Thursday and will be the focus for possible thunderstorm development.
Yet another upper level trough was over northern SASK/MAN and will move across the forecast area on Thu. Convective temps were in the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south. After SASK/MAN upper trough moves through, northwest flow remains for the rest of the period.
The fractured Western Atlantic ridge extends west across the Florida Peninsula.
The system will bring a back door cold front across Northeast Montana this afternoon.
208 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure builds in for Today. Cooler for the remainder of the week. As the upper trof moves east of the CWA. High pressure builds in for today and tonight bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidities into the region. with high pressure in control.
645 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will progress through central NC this morning, stalling near the coast in the afternoon. The front will begin to return northward as a warm front on Thursday. The deep moisture plume has pushed offshore southeast of the area, with thinning of the high cloudiness.
414 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this am.
The main cold front remains north of the area, but we are beginning A pocket of lower dew points begin to move into the northwest portions of the forecast area.
The first area is across the higher terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has moved into northern Mexico. The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the northwest, though mid level heights won't be too high. The center of the ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and New Mexico.
An upper ridge remains centered over the Rockies this morning with fairly dry southwest flow aloft over our area. The Rockies ridge begins to weaken and move a little eastward tomorrow, and this will result in the upper flow over us veering to more westerly.
A cold front was located from northeast Georgia through central Mississippi and into north central Texas at this time. High pressure was centered over north central Illinois. This high will keep things dry across the forecast area today. Temperatures will be cooler than they have been over the past few days with highs from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The high will remain over the Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday which will keep dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
On the larger scale, the mid level anticyclone was anchored near the Four Corners region with northwest flow extending from eastern Wyoming into the Central Plains.
220 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 The persistent upper level ridge responsible for the current warm conditions will begin to weaken Thursday and into this weekend leading to increasing westerly winds and eventually moderating temperatures back to near normal temperatures. except in the North Cascades where slightly cooler mid level temps may result in a few storms developing with the best chances over the mountains north of Lake Chelan.
309 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over Minnesota and central Iowa.
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington.
/Issued 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016/ Latest surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough near a Carrollton to Gainesville line. with area radars showing numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along and south of this trough axis. Expect the frontal trough to continue sagging southward into central GA this afternoon-evening. they agree on the trough/front stalling somewhere near a Columbus to Macon line on Wednesday.
457 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Decaying upper ridging will exit to the SE today, allowing for mostly sunny skies and increasing return flow from the SW.
332 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 A cold front will clear the region early this morning before stalling over the Carolinas.
306 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will settle into the western and central Great Lakes today before shifting south into the Ohio Vally early on Thursday. (5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday).
236 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 Upper level high pressure system will continue to bring very warm temperatures across inland areas on Wednesday, with slow cooling trend Thursday into the weekend as a weak upper level low pressure system develops across the California coast.
521 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
230 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 Upper level high pressure system will continue to bring very warm temperatures across inland areas today, with slow cooling trend Thursday into the weekend as a weak upper level low pressure system develops across the California coast.
322 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 At H5 strong high pressure over desert southwest with ridge extending into western Canada. Gulf of Alaska low sending waves underneath ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Trough over the Great Lakes.
High pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will continue to bring gales and steep seas south of Port Orford and 10nm or farther from shore. Thinking that the gradient is weaker over the inner waters for this event so the winds won't increase in the inner waters unless the thermal trough moves farther inland.
/Tonight/ Today began the start of much cooler temperatures across the region. Showers have been sputtering across the western portion of the DMX CWA throughout the afternoon hours along the edge of a theta-e ridge near a broad area of moisture convergence and 700mb frontogenetical forcing.
147 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 An upper trough will move east of the region this evening as high pressure builds in from the upper Great Lakes. The high pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
426 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 --Near term (Today and Tonight)-- Ridge of high pressure aloft centered over the area is slowly shifting east this morning, and will bring light southwest flow aloft over the area.
High pressure remains over the forecast area and east into Minnesota. A trough continues to set up across the lee of the Rockies today. Temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The main low pressure center will stay south into southeastern Montana and western South Dakota. A cold front will combine with favorable jet dynamics to spark more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
The high will allow cooler than normal temperatures and lower humidity to persist through Thursday.
The center of high pressure will continue to retreat east into the OH Valley resulting in light east or southeast flow across the area. First any ongoing storms from overnight lasting into the morning in the low level WAA regime. Then again in the later half of the afternon across eastern MO ahead of an encroaching cold front due to increasing southwesterly low level flow, the resultant moisture and warm thermal advection and instability, and yet another northwest flow disturbance.
will carry the higher pops mainly north of United States Highway 412 over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with less chances just south of the highway. high pressure is forecast to build back over the Southern Plains which will continue hot and humid conditions over the CWA.