Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS BEING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. DERIVING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM THE FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS GAVE ME ONLY 40-45 AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S YESTERDAY SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SHADED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE ERIE.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS, AND IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST.
341 AM PDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND KICK OFF A WARMING TREND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
345 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND SHEAR OUT OVER NM LATER TODAY AND OVER TX TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
Currently have NE across the board as the cold front has pushed south of all terminals. /issued 137 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ The series of upper troughs continue with a weak trough moving out of the area today. the next trough Tuesday moving along the AZ/NM/Mex border.
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
313 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 The region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough progressed eastward beyond the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Minnesota and Iowa and stretched southward across Kansas, resulting in light northeasterly winds early this morning. This southerly component to the wind combined with mostly sunny skies will allow for seasonal conditions today with highs reaching into the low/mid 60s. Conditions will remain dry through the day with dewpoint temperatures generally staying in the 20s, resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range. These southerly winds will allow overnight temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows in the mid/upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
324 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 High pressure will build into the region today, resulting in abundant sunshine and cool temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around 850mb beneath the subsidence inversion, which yields highs only in the lower to middle 50s. Ridge of high pressure will remain overhead tonight, resulting in another clear and cold night across central Illinois. Low temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than last night, with readings generally bottoming out in the lower to middle 30s. Persistent upper troughing across eastern Canada/Great Lakes will relax this week, as an upper ridge builds into the Midwest.
THIS IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD FUNNELING MOISTURE ON ITS RETURN FLOW. TEMPS HAVE REACHED NEAR FORECASTED NUMBERS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EVENTUALLY A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING GOING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS ACROSS NE COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVE WAY TOWARDS PCLDY CONDITIONS BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BUT FOR MAINLY AREAS STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
245 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY.
1031 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016 The strong upper level ridge of past few days will finally give way to a more unsettled and cooler pattern as a upper level trough slowly moves in.
LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH TOWARD TN.
257 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
652 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
643 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A RAPID CLRG TREND THIS MRNG. THOUGH A WEAK UPR TROF COULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WED N OF PIT. DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE RIDGES WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST RIDGES MID MORNING.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST OF INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS AND NAM SHOWS TODAY AND TOMORROW BEING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF NW FLOW ALOFT AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER TODAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER AND HIGH PW AIR STREAMS IN FROM THE SW.
419 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016 A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA TODAY IS PUMPING MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AS THIS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THU/THU NIGHT.
355 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 High pressure centered over western Iowa/southwest Minnesota will continue moving east southeast today. Cool dry conditions are expected under the influence of this high. Carney Although lows tonight should be a little warmer than the previous night, especially across northeast and central MO as well as west central IL, there may be some frost due to a clear sky, light surface wind, and lows ranging from 33-36 degrees over much of the forecast area. A quiet and dry weather pattern will continue as an upper level ridge moves slowly eastward to the central US by Wednesday, along with persistent surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes and northeastern US southwest into eastern MO.
321 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 317 AM CDT THE COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME BEGINS TODAY AS EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING.
325 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CLEARING THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
1046 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
LEFT THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS ALONE AS THE RECENT TREND FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SKIRTING THE COASTLINE SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE WITH RIDGING ALOFT SITUATED OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
714 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOIST CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THIS OCCURS.
500 MB RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
745 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A TAD WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID. BUT WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS DUE TO SFC RIDGING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FURTHER ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY.
MID/UPR LVL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THIS PAST MONTH WILL PIVOT WWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES IN THE NEXT 48 HRS ALLOWING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE TO NOSE INTO THE COASTAL BEND.
634 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to mid 60's, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the next few days.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WILL GENERATE SOME STORMS OVER THE ATLC BUT THESE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN FROM THE COAST. (PREVIOUS) MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE WEAK MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NE FL IN THE ATLC WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
1058 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE IN EASTERN ONTARIO. COLD AIR CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
609 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF ILX, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4- CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under persistent ridging aloft. Convection is also forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models. The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the eastern US.
601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY. WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR.
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY. LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER.
1230 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
1043 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
659 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE IN EASTERN ONTARIO. COLD AIR CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE.
737 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THIS SPED UP THE HIGHEST POPS A BIT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY. MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ALONG WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR MEMPHIS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
827 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE.
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING BRITISH COLUMBIA UPPER LOW.
1136 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to mid 60's, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the next few days.
19Z SFC MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THU SHOULD BE ANOTHER DECENT DAY WITH DRY CONDS AND NEAR AVG TEMPS AROUND 90 MOST SPOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW, ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS, HAD ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
1146 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015 A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM located roughly along southern Missouri's Highway 60 corridor.
DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. ALSO, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-31/06Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA ALL DAY. AHEAD OF THIS HIGH. 850MB WINDS +2 TO +3 STD DEV FROM THE NW HAVE BEEN ADVECTING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO IOWA. WITH THE HIGH NEARING IOWA OVERNIGHT.
STILL HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE NRN HALF. A FEW SITES ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK WILL APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.
1223 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWER 50S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SHERIDAN AND GARDEN COUNTIES WHERE LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES FELL WELL INTO THE 40S.
BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL WE RECEIVED BEING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN SAN MANUEL.
844 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE BY TONIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER (LOW TO MID 80S) BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS HUMID WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS. RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
725 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF I-35/35E AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.
The strongest convection remains offshore with an area of low pressure producing strong winds and possibly a waterspout.
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATION WILL RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS.
Tonight through Thursday: The models are in good agreement with the high pressure building into the region.