Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Observations indicate some low level cumulus clouds are moving northward as low level moisture increases tonight ahead of a cold front, but widespread clouds are not anticipated until after midnight. Wednesday morning, increasing clouds are expected as moisture pools ahead of the cold front. MVFR ceilings are more likely before the dry cold front can scatter out the clouds. The pressure gradient will diminish across the lower Texas coast tonight as a cold front moves across south central TX. Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into deep south TX in the wake of the cold front Wednesday. This will provide slightly cooler high temperatures Wed afternoon and cooler low temperatures Wed night as a result.
A cold front will move through the area late tonight. A cold front will already have pushed through the FA by tomorrow night.
302 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 upper trough over central Nebraska with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over northeast Colorado.
955 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday.
650 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Clouds linger under weak high pressure. Warm Wednesday before turning progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. areas of drizzle /freezing drizzle or snow flurries high elevations/ will continue this evening along with low ceilings. Shower activity should subside as high pressure builds and waa occurs.
625 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday.
Conditions are quiet across Middle TN this evening as upper ridging axis is centered over the area. South winds should begin to increase over the next couple hours as the pressure gradient tightens ahead a cold front which will move through the CWA tomorrow. VFR conditions look to start off this TAF period before an approaching cold front will drop cigs and bring rain chances to the area tomorrow.
Strong and breezy northwest winds will be felt across western Kansas tonight through tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area. Lows tonight look to range from the lower 20s across west central Kansas to upper 20s across south central Kansas. Northwest winds at the surface will continue until the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Intermountain West to the Southern Plains.
312 PM PST Tue Jan 24 2017 A long wave trough continues to exit the region leaving behind mainly clear skies and rather pleasant weather. After the front moves through, we have high confidence that high pressure will build and continue through the weekend.
605 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, sfc cold front will continue moving southward across KDHT and KAMA this evening.
/Issued 245 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ A welcomed relatively benign and low impact forecast on tap as a mid/upper ridge of high pressure will dominate into Wednesday.
747 PM PST Tue Jan 24 2017 A low pressure trough aloft will bring a cold night across SoCal with areas of frost likely in portions of the inland valleys.
1045 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
553 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 A maturing low pressure system over the plains will move into MO tonight and continue northeastward towards the Great Lakes on Wed. Rain showers are possible across northeastern MO and west central IL until the upper trough moves east of the region. The initially narrow warm sector does not lift completely through the CWA overnight, and the trailing cold front then quickly moves through the CWA on Wed morning.
Cloudy skies will persists with general troughing around with some clearing expected over the far west Wed night. A broad upper level trough will remain across the central to eastern half of the US late in the week, with a highly amplified ridge over the west coast.
Upper trough axis is moving through NE Montana this afternoon and tonight.
/Issued 605 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/ For the 00Z TAFs, sfc cold front will continue moving southward across KDHT and KAMA this evening.
Strengthening high pressure will bring drier conditions from Wednesday through the weekend.
A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday evening, with cooler conditions expected for the rest of the week.
By 3 pm, temperatures had climbed into the lower and middle 50s west of the Cumberland Plateau, and 45 to 50 degrees along the Plateau itself. Models remain consistent with the general forecast over the next few days, with a cold front forecast to bring an increase in clouds to western areas by late tonight, and over all of the Mid- State during the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 50s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower 60s elsewhere.
A cold front will continue to move south across the area this evening shifting winds to the NW. Another important factor for people responding to fires today will be a wind shift associated with a cold front. Shortly after 2 pm, a cold front was located over part of the Oklahoma Panhandle and just south of Buffalo, OK.
This partial lull will last through Wednesday morning then the HRRR is showing another weak trough moving through the area Wednesday afternoon with a minor uptick in areal coverage of snow showers.
MVFR cigs could also develop near KTCC because of an incoming back door cold front overnight into Wed morning.
741 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build into the area tonight, then prevail through Wednesday.
934 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure along the New England coast will drift northeast through Wednesday. High pressure will build into the central Mid- Atlantic through Wednesday.
926 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move across the area Wednesday morning.
Strong low pressure over the central plains states with widespread across much of South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. Expect this to diminish through the evening an inverted trough into this area weakens an moves east. A weak upper level low currently over southern Saskatchewan will drift southeast the next couple of days, keeping a chance of light snow or flurries across the forecast area. Current surface analysis places low pushing through Kansas with ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Cooler air pulls in behind the system bringing temperatures slightly below average.
NAM bufkit soundings seem to have a good handle on the clearing and at this point looks like we should clear from south/southwest to north/northeast, especially as the low level jet ramps up late tonight. With much cooler air already keeping temps down this afternoon into the lower 40s, a bit of clearing tonight may allow temps, especially valley temps to fall into the lower 30s. The higher elevations will likely see higher wind gusts. Most of the period will be dominated by cold weather with a west to northwest cyclonic low level flow under a longwave eastern CONUS trough.
Late this morning, satellite water vapor imagery along with the 12Z upper air analysis showed the main upper low situated over central WY with 30-70 meter 500 mb height falls ahead of it. Surface plot had a low pressure in southwest KS with a warm front extending ENE. Temperatures have remained below freezing over most parts of the CWA with the exception of our south and southeast. Given the slow speed of the upper low, plan to keep light snow going in the north overnight and perhaps for a little while Wed morning. By Wed evening the upper low currently affecting us should have moved east and is expected to near southern IL. At that time the big picture over the CONUS will have a large trough over the middle of the country with a ridge building into the Pacific NW.
With winds dropping off and no cloud blanket, temperatures should steadily fall and bottom out a little cooler than normal into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
732 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Mild high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the deep low pressure system lift northeast up the northern Mid Atlantic coast.
With the front not expected to reach our nwrn zones until early Wed morning, expect warmer and more humid conditions overnight with lows in the lower to middle 60s, only a degree or two cooler than current temps. Scattered showers expected ahead and along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Windshift with cold front expected between 20-22z Wednesday afternoon. Cooler and drier air, closer to seasonal normals anyway, will prevail in the wake of this front as a broad upper trof becomes established over much of the CONUS. Until then, we are expected to remain cool and dry through the weekend with persistent NW flow at the SFC and in the low levels underneath a fast westerly flow aloft.
Also, dropped min temps across SWNC by a few degrees as hourly obs were running a few degrees cooler than forecast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 65 42 47 / 0 30 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 64 42 45 / 0 20 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 38 61 41 45 / 0 30 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 62 42 44 / 0 10 60 20.
A cold front will approach our coastal waters from the west on Wednesday night, with southwest winds quickly increasing to caution levels in the near shore waters and Small Craft Advisory levels offshore.
There will also be some small chances for rain across the far SERN portion of AR along a cold front as it progresses SE through the state on Wed.
Expect low clouds and fog/freezing fog to develop in the west side valleys later tonight into Wednesday morning. The ridging that is bringing the current dry weather to the area will break down Wednesday and a few weak short waves coming in from the northwest will move onshore.
A chance for snow late tonight into Wednesday with a gradual trend towards cooler temperatures. Guidance continues to trend just slightly further south with the track of the low, and with a sharp northern gradient expected, this has resulted in less snow forecast for northwest Wisconsin. As the low deepens, northerly flow will develop at low to mid levels resulting colder air being advected in from the north. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s - while there will be little in the way of radiational cooling, some cooler air will advect in as winds turn northerly.
Cold front has entered parts of northeast OK and will pass through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Adjusted temperature/dewpoint hourly trends to better fit the current cold front timing.
Temperatures should drop off fairly quickly after sunset, and with clear skies and calm winds, we should observe low to mid 40s by daybreak Sunday, with a few 30s observed in those cooler valley locations across north and northeastern counties.
625 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Gusty south winds have brought much warmer readings into the region today with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s across the region. These winds will only decrease slightly overnight, keeping overnight lows unseasonably mild in the lower to middle 60s. Strong capping inversion will be the big deciding factor behind any strong storms that may develop Sunday evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. These latter solutions seem more reasonable, especially since overall synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the upper trough doesn't appear to be strong enough to overcome such a strong inversion.
Although surface winds will remain light and dewpoints will stay low in the 20s and 30s tonight, much warmer low temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s are expected as LLJ increases to 10 kts east up to 25 kts west.
1010 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build over the east coast tonight and Sunday.
852 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure builds over the local area tonight.
Paltry low level moisture will maintain a clear sky across the lowest 10k ft through the morning period. This will maintain mixed conditions as cirrus spilling over the ridge infiltrates late. Low pressure ejects from the front range into the Upper Mississippi Valley late tonight into Sunday evening with Southeast Michigan residing firmly within the established warm sector. This will support high temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer than today in addition to a substantial gust component.
705 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Closed low at H5 over the northeast Pacific with wave affecting northern California and the Pacific northwest. Broad ridge from Texas into the Hudson Bay and closed low over Maine. At the surface cold front moving to the southeast over western Nebraska. Boundary over western Nebraska this evening will be the focus for thunderstorm development over mainly northern Nebraska as impulses are ejected from the trough to the west. Dewpoints in the 40s approaching the low 50s over Oneill tonight. West to northwest winds tonight will keep boundary layer mixed and with cloud cover and warm ridge aloft lows expected in the 40s and 50s. Upper low closes off over eastern Wyoming. Upper low directly over head with precipitation and low clouds will keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for daytime highs.
/issued 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ Southerly winds have returned to the region today and this has resulted in a moistening of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Winds aloft (around 10K feet msl) remain in the 20-30 kt range overnight as the trough axis is still west of our area. The trough responsible for the gusty southwest winds and showers across the region will quickly move out of the area tonight. Behind the cold front, temperatures will remain cool on Sunday even under ample sunshine.
01 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure just over the region. With high pressure in place over the region, expect another clear and chilly night for early April. Low temperatures once again are expected to drop into the lower 40s and it wouldn't be too surprising to see some of the cooler inland spots drop into the upper 30s before sunrise.
928 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure in the southeastern states will build towards the area through tonight and move offshore on Sunday.
Surface analysis places a 1020 mb ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will result in rain free weather across the Mid-South tonight through Sunday night.
510 PM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front now east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis to the east of the region, with southwest flow ahead of trough moving across the west coast states. Unsettled and much cooler weather can be expected through the rest of the weekend as west coast trough moves quickly east and low pressure develops within the trough as it moves over the region later on Sunday and Sunday night. The northern Black Hills and the Bear Lodge Mts, especially the higher elevations, still have the highest potential for significant snowfall of 6 inches or more due to colder air aloft and upslope enhanced snow potential.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southward to the Gulf Coast. a 991mb low is noted over Manitoba, with a cold front trailing into the Northern and Central Plains. The amount of cloud cover will influence Sunday afternoon high temperatures, resulting in slightly cooler readings than previously forecast across the W/SW KILX CWA. As the cold front nears, a few showers will develop late Sunday night. Models have correctly backed off on the areal coverage of precip due to a lack of deep-layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will be largely blocked by surface ridging over the Deep South.
The northern and central Colorado mountains may see some light snowfall overnight into Sunday morning, but dry air will limit the potential for significant accumulations with maybe a couple inches at best occurring with this passing cold front and disturbance.
A large area of high pressure over Tennessee and eastern Ohio will continue moving east as low pressure moves into the central plains.
An area of low pressure, currently in northeast SD, will continue progressing eastward. Winds are breezy behind the low with gusts exceeding 25 mph at times.
This will lead to milder weather through the rest of the weekend, modest ridge/valley splits at night and the continuation low relative humidity in the afternoon hours. Another sharp ridge valley split is expected Sunday night with valleys dipping into the upper 30s and ridges likely staying in the low 50s.
A few normally cooler locations could realize U40s. High pressure centered north of the area remains in control of our local weather with a continued dry airmass in place.
1045 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Sizable ridge/valley temperatures differences have developed this evening-- larger than was forecast at this point. Ridges are quite mild compared to valleys. However, as winds continue to slacken, there will be opportunity for ridges to fall off more. Don't have confidence to raise eventual ridge min temps very much. This will lead to milder weather through the rest of the weekend, modest ridge/valley splits at night and the continuation low relative humidity in the afternoon hours. Another sharp ridge valley split is expected Sunday night with valleys dipping into the upper 30s and ridges likely staying in the low 50s.
Byrd SHRA/TSRA chances will increase on Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front, but the relatively slow speed of the front as well as unfavorable overnight timing will tend to slow the eastward spread of precipitation into the area.
1154 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High degree of stability across the low level environment will continue to maintain favorable aviation conditions through Sunday. Paltry low level moisture will maintain a clear sky across the lowest 10k ft through the morning period. This will maintain mixed conditions as cirrus spilling over the ridge infiltrates late. Low pressure ejects from the front range into the Upper Mississippi Valley late tonight into Sunday evening with Southeast Michigan residing firmly within the established warm sector. This will support high temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer than today in addition to a substantial gust component.
As temperatures cool Sunday evening some of this precip may transition to snow especially along the Pine Ridge.
Temperatures tonight will range from the low/mid 40s inland to the upper 40s/low 50s near the coast.
/Issued 745 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ The upper ridge will drift eastward across the state overnight. Have kept the overnight lows on the cooler side of guidance numbers as a result.
Ahead of this wave, strong westerlies flowing over the Rockies will result in a broad but fragmented lee trough structure over the Central Plains before a Pacific front pushes into eastern KS to central OK on Sunday. Nonetheless, slightly cooler temperatures behind the Pacific front should limit the duration/extent of these conditions to the point that a Red Flag is unnecessary.
Southwest to west winds become more variable as frontal boundary stalls out as it approaches strong downstream ridge. A couple of mid-upper level waves get kicked out of upstream trough, triggering elevated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms from late evening through the overnight, as the waves encounter mid-level front located across the northwest half of the forecast area. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms as the upper trough provides additional lift and shear across the area, but extent will ultimately depend on location of the low level boundaries, so confidence remains on the lower side at this time.
With high pressure continuing to depart the area, moderate southerly winds will develop by late morning before weakening again after sunset. /issued 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ Southerly winds have returned to the region today and this has resulted in a moistening of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Convective potential Sunday afternoon and evening remains in great doubt even with potentially much warmer temperatures as a strong cap will remain in place.
Winds are expected to subside below advisory criteria late tonight as we approach the midnight hour, but gusty winds will continue overnight as the cold front approaches. The cold front is expected to pass through the UT/CO border after midnight and will yield an unseasonably cool Sunday with 700 mb temps of about -6C throughout the day. As the cold front pushes through the region, models are indicating an area of snow showers passing through NE Utah and NW Colorado Sunday morning.
Weak high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep winds light and variable across our northern waters tonight with northerly winds around 10 knots elsewhere.
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Current temperatures are running about 20 degrees warmer than this time last night. This is because of the warmer highs today and the stronger winds this evening. Byrd SHRA/TSRA chances will increase on Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front, but the relatively slow speed of the front as well as unfavorable overnight timing will tend to slow the eastward spread of precipitation into the area.
Widespread precipitation is expected across much of the forecast area with rain expected to change to snow overnight as a Canadian cold front brings colder air into the region.
Trended the POPs down into the lower 20s across the central and left around 30 southwest.
Shower coverage only gradually decreasing this evening but should decrease faster later tonight as the supporting upper trough shifts east out of our area and a flat ridge replaces it by morning. Sunday looks mostly sunny and cool under the upper ridge, except for a slight chance of rain and snow showers over the central Idaho mountains. MVFR within these showers and isolated IFR in the higher elevations.
/issued 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ The high pressure ridge shifted to the east this morning shifting winds to a southerly direction today.
956 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Aviation section updated A large area of high pressure over Tennessee and eastern Ohio will continue moving east as low pressure moves into the central plains.
856 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure in the southeastern states will build towards the area through tonight and move offshore on Sunday.
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Current temperatures are running about 20 degrees warmer than this time last night. This is because of the warmer highs today and the stronger winds this evening. Byrd SHRA/TSRA chances will increase on Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front, but the relatively slow speed of the front as well as unfavorable overnight timing will tend to slow the eastward spread of precipitation into the area.
Low temperatures in the northern region of the forecast area should be in the upper 50s, while closer to the coast, low temperatures will drop into the low-mid 60s. Surface analysis continues to show the region of high pressure pushing off the northeast this evening, leaving behind a fairly tight pressure gradient in its wake. Models remain in decent agreement with bringing a cold front in- backing off on this boundary moving into SE TX as its associated upper trof/low is progged track further north (i.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 70s.
Toward late evening thunderstorms are likely to develop in southeast Kansas with the cold front that will be approaching from the northwest. The shallow nature of the moisture and less than favorable wind profiles in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere will be a negative for sustained low-level rotation, but the overall environment will support low-precipitation supercell structures.
1044 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build over the east coast tonight and Sunday.