Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
today as the upper level ridge becomes a bit more enhanced across the northern Rockies. Tonight, the low level flow will become more southerly/southwesterly which will limit the amount of low level moisture that will be in place. The ridge will pivot to the east a bit tomorrow which will help to raise heights across our forecast area.
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Increased cloud cover across central SD as low pressure traverses the region. Can't rule out some virga or a sprinkle with the low, but there is a lot of dry air in the mid levels for any precip to overcome. However, they will be a touch cooler for Thursday behind a frontal boundary. The upper pattern will feature mainly zonal flow with a broad upper trough appearance across the northern plains initially, with that trough deepening as it gets into the western lakes region for the end of the weekend.
Clouds should continue to break some this afternoon and evening as the upper level trough continues to move off to the northeast. A warming trend will commence tomorrow as a mid level ridge settles over the area allowing for warm and dry conditions for the next few days.
A mid to upper level trough will remain draped across the area through the period. The combination of drier air, light winds and limited cloud cover will provide for cooler overnight lows tonight and Thursday, and slightly warmer daytime temperatures on Thursday. Lows will generally range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
With general subsidence on the back side of the exiting trough expect improving conditions late in the period. The latest forecast update slowed the clearing some across the lower Arkansas River Valley into southeast OK south of Interstate 40 based on current trends with sunshine returning north of I-44 by mid afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Little change from the previous forecast with Deep South Texas still under the influence of the broad circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta. In the mid-layers a low pressure trough extends across the state with the axis remaining just west of the coast. As for the tidal forecast and coastal flooding currently observed waters levels along the Lower Texas coast have dipped below minor flooding with tides near daily lows.
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry pattern continues for our region, despite modest mid-upper level wave briefly breaking down upper ridge across the region tonight. Temperatures will be warmest today, with readings warming into the 80s in the thermal ridge ahead of the trough, possibly pushing 90F in some areas near the Missouri River Valley and far southeast SD. A little cooler behind the wave for Thursday, but still above normal with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s, and continued dry with a fair amount of sunshine expected.
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure near the Ohio River Valley will remain in place through Thursday afternoon.
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A upper ridge axis was situated over the Intermountain West this afternoon.
The lower levels are dominated by a weak high pressure center over the lower Ohio Valley. Partial clearing elsewhere will allow highs to reach the lower to mid 70s. Pattern amplification is anticipated, with a transition to a deep trof over the eastern US with a large west US ridge.
1015 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Increased cloud cover across central SD as low pressure traverses the region. Can't rule out some virga or a sprinkle with the low, but there is a lot of dry air in the mid levels for any precip to overcome. However, they will be a touch cooler for Thursday behind a frontal boundary. The upper pattern will feature mainly zonal flow with a broad upper trough appearance across the northern plains initially, with that trough deepening as it gets into the western lakes region for the end of the weekend.
The latest forecast update slowed the clearing some across the lower Arkansas River Valley into southeast OK south of Interstate 40 based on current trends with sunshine returning north of I-44 by mid afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s, making today feel more like a late summer day rather than the second day of fall. The weather is expected to remain quiet through the overnight with weak upper level ridging remaining in place.
Across the remaining terminals, clouds have spread out from the outer bands of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta leading to additional cloud development.
Post-tropical cyclone Beta's center is now moving through Central Louisiana. It has developed a quasi-frontal structure, with elevated low-level helicity along the warm front extending eastward from the center providing a favorable environment for short-lived tornadoes.
Thursday: Upper level trough swings across the area but the better forcing/moisture is north of the dvn cwa.
This looks like a rather dry event for us, especially at the lower elevations.
Temperatures should be to be near to slightly warmer than today, with highs in the upper 80s for most.
Tomorrow will bring a shift towards breezy, wet weather as a trough of low pressure traverses southwestern Canada. This system will bring cooler air down from the north, resulting in a cold front passing over the Northern Rockies early Thursday morning.
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Weak high pressure will linger over the Carolinas through the day on Thursday.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 69 63 79 65 / 60 80 70 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 68 61 77 63 / 50 60 70 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 67 61 77 62 / 40 70 60 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 69 57 73 60 / 30 40 50 50 20.
1150 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 NE Pac upper trough will begin to shift east supporting semi- active flow into the Northern Plains. Broad troughing will set up over central Canada, with a western NOAM ridge.
That said, MLCAPE is forecast to be AOA 500 j/kg and there is a very outside chance for a very isolated storm mainly across the SW late this afternoon and early in the evening if the trough can just barely manage to break the cap.
expect mostly clear skies Ridge continues to build over the region aloft. Freezing temps possible in KLXV.
254 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 As a front/inverted trough progresses east across South Dakota today, it has been generating sprinkles, showers, and even a couple of thunderstorms.
150 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
201 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure centered off the southern California coast has built in today with radar and satellite showing a bit of convection going over the highest terrain. An approaching trough will start dropping down from the northwest tomorrow and this will cause an uptick in wind speeds thanks to upper level support mixing down as well as a tightening pressure gradient.
217 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing the upper low moving slowly across southern Missouri this afternoon. There still may be isolated showers over the far south part of the CWA tonight as the upper low lifts out tonight into the Ohio Valley per the latest run of the HREF. Britt Still looks dry into the weekend as both the EPS and GEFS means have a low amplitude ridge moving in from the Plains and flattening out over the Midwest.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A short wave diving southeast out of Manitoba will help push a weak cold front across upper MI and into the Tip of the Mitt by early Thursday morning.
754 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
753 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift east and off the coast Thursday and Thursday night. as high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the East coast.
I dropped winds everywhere and the low clouds at FMY and RSW otherwise the current running.
A cold front moving into the western US should increase winds across the region through Thursday.
As a front/inverted trough progresses east across South Dakota today, it has been generating sprinkles, showers, and even a couple of thunderstorms.
/issued 205 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020/ After a foggy start this morning across portions of the Permian Basin, skies have cleared, with low clouds pushing to the east of the area, and diurnal cumulus developing across the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas. Aloft, water vapor imagery indicates persistent ridging across the western CONUS and a slow-moving trough anchored from the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys southwestward across east-central Texas as the remnants of Beta drift northeastward into Louisiana. As ridging to the west slowly builds in across the region and the trough drifts east, expect the current warming trend to continue through the start of the weekend.
Latest Mesonet obs show temperatures across the region have dropped to the lower 60s, which appears on track with the previous forecast.
Still believe the higher chances and heavier rains will move into the forecast area after midnight though, which is unchanged from the day shift's thinking. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 68 63 77 65 / 70 80 70 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 67 62 76 63 / 60 70 80 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 67 61 76 63 / 60 70 70 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 67 58 73 60 / 40 50 60 60 20 TN.
May see some brief improvement late this evening but NMM and some other models show the low clouds returning overnight to the Victoria Crossroads and persisting through the morning. Low clouds associated with post-tropical cyclone Beta will continue to affect the Victoria Crossroads with MVFR ceilings this evening.
609 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
Lows will drop to the lower 70s across the coastal counties while the interior will see temps drop to the upper 60s.
338 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry conditions will remain for the rest of the afternoon as the ridge reaches its maximum extent over the area. On Thursday midlevel flow becomes more southwesterly as the trough approaches. This will bring an associated cold front to the vicinity Thursday evening. Thus, with these winds and the lower relative humidity values tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing the upper low moving slowly across southern Missouri this afternoon. There still may be isolated showers over the far south part of the CWA tonight as the upper low lifts out tonight into the Ohio Valley per the latest run of the HREF. Britt Still looks dry into the weekend as both the EPS and GEFS means have a low amplitude ridge moving in from the Plains and flattening out over the Midwest.
Over the next 24 to 30 hours, will need to watch the evolution carefully as much of Central Alabama winds up in a pseudo warm frontal environment with decent levels of shear by late tomorrow.
1048 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift east and off the coast Thursday and Thursday night. as high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the East coast.
901 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Upstream cold front extends from the NW shore of Lake Superior thru Central Minnesota into South Dakota late this evening. A few areas of convection continue to fire in the vcnty of this front fueled by MUCAPES of 1500-2000 J/kg and modest 850 mb theta E ridging as low level moisture pools along the boundary. Cold front will lay into our northern CWA overnight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A short wave diving southeast out of Manitoba will help push a weak cold front across upper MI and into the Tip of the Mitt by early Thursday morning.
Gusty southwest afternoon breezes (25-30 mph) will continue through Thursday as a trough of low pressure continues to move across the Pacific Northwest.
A short wave trough over nd will swing southeast over our region through the night with only mid and high level clouds with it. As a front/inverted trough progresses east across South Dakota today, it has been generating sprinkles, showers, and even a couple of thunderstorms.
527 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry conditions will remain for the rest of the afternoon as the ridge reaches its maximum extent over the area. On Thursday midlevel flow becomes more southwesterly as the trough approaches. This will bring an associated cold front to the vicinity Thursday evening. Thus, with these winds and the lower relative humidity values tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected.
A Strong Cold Front To Bring Increased Fire Weather Danger Thursday.
856 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
548 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A upper ridge axis was situated over the Intermountain West this afternoon.
Clouds have been on the increase for most of the day, helping to keep things cooler, with several places struggling to make it into the 70s. Moving forward into tomorrow and tomorrow night, remnants of Beta, supported by a trough aloft, is set to bring more widespread rain chances to portions of eastern Kentucky. Models have been fairly consistent in trending northward with the higher PoPs into our area, and so have adjusted accordingly. The NAM continues to show some of the highest totals. In fact, even if the higher QPF estimates are realized, it would probably still not be enough to exceed the guidance, which runs in the neighborhood of 2. The coolest areas are likely to be in the southern portion of the CWA, where the higher rain chances are.
HRRR then shows complete clearing of the smoke behind the cold front due to pass through northern areas before sunrise, southwest Idaho around midday, and south-central idaho late Thursday.
549 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Continued warm and dry into the weekend then a bit of a pattern change to cooler weather, but still expected to be dry. As this system passes we will see slightly cooler conditions north of I-90, but lows still in the mid 50s. High pressure will settle in with warm air in place.
607 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 (This evening through Thursday) As the upper level trough slowly moves out, stratus will break up somewhat today then move back in again overnight (somewhat further east).
Radar depicts a few light returns in the higher terrain northeast of Safford, gradually moving toward the south/southwest. As a broad trough pushes through the northwestern U. , the ridge will elongate and strengthen over Arizona producing a few extra degrees of heat. The pattern adjusts over the weekend as the trough slides east and a strong expansive high builds over the western CONUS. Arizona will be under the southeastern ridge axis.
Latest Mesonet obs show temperatures across the region have dropped to the lower 60s, which appears on track with the previous forecast. Deep moisture exits off to the east Friday morning with upper ridging building in.
458 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 High pressure extending from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Southeast U.
Then on Friday, upper level ridging will begin to build in allowing warm southerly winds to return to the region once again. Byrd Dry pattern will continue into the weekend as the EPS, GEFS and deterministic models remain in good agreement with upper level ridge building in and flow aloft becoming zonal.
The axis of an upper level ridge centered over southern California early this morning will shift to a position over the southern High Plains as significant upper level short wave energy moves across the northern Rockies flattening the ridge and forcing its axis southward.
Today will be dry with 500mb ridging moving across the area. At the sfc will see a weak high pressure ridge axis move east with southerly winds developing on the backside.
959 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 An upper level high pressure center currently located over southwest California is expected to expand eastward through Friday with very fast zonal flow to our north.
347 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Low pressure slides through the Ohio River Valley this morning, holding cloud coverage in place this morning for locations east of the I-55 corridor. A larger Low pressure system will slip through the northern Midwest this weekend, however dry conditions are expected to continue. A mid-level Low pressure system is tracking through the southeast portion of the CWA this morning, moving into the Ohio River Valley region of Indiana early this morning. As Friday arrives, an upper Low slides through the southern Great Lakes, however this dry system will not bring precip to the region.
High pressure centered off the southern California coast has built in today with radar and satellite showing a bit of convection going over the highest terrain. An approaching trough will start dropping down from the northwest tomorrow and this will cause an uptick in wind speeds thanks to upper level support mixing down as well as a tightening pressure gradient. A broad trough will swing by to our north on Friday, tightening up the pressure gradient over northern portions of our CWA which, when combined with the deep mixing allowed by the expected warm and dry conditions, will result in strong, gusty winds.
The fog should dissipate by mid-morning with the low cloud cover eroding as the day wears on.
Upper level ridging building in from the west and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge should lead to some warming this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1130 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
A upper ridge axis was situated over the Intermountain West this afternoon.
The movement of Beta should be steady to the NE as it rides along an upper level trough. Otherwise, rain chances increasing today favoring the north and west cwa with the highest pops. BDL Short wave trough/remnants of Beta moving east of the Appalachians at the start of the period.
1009 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing the upper low moving slowly across southern Missouri this afternoon. There still may be isolated showers over the far south part of the CWA tonight as the upper low lifts out tonight into the Ohio Valley per the latest run of the HREF. Britt Still looks dry into the weekend as both the EPS and GEFS means have a low amplitude ridge moving in from the Plains and flattening out over the Midwest.
Still believe the higher chances and heavier rains will move into the forecast area after midnight though, which is unchanged from the day shift's thinking. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 63 77 65 82 / 100 90 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 62 76 63 81 / 100 100 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 61 76 63 81 / 100 100 50 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 58 73 60 80 / 80 90 60 20 20 TN.
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 High pressure extending from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Southeast U.
Temperatures will be warmer versus the past few days but will still average below normal for late September.
Similar to yesterday, temperatures will be on the cooler side due to rain and cloud cover. The remnants of Beta will eventually get swept up by an upper trough late tonight.
A rather benign weather pattern will set up across Southeast Texas now that the remnants of Beta continue to move farther away from the TX region across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be very pleasant throughout the short term period, with high temperatures only reaching the low 80s areawide today and lows tonight into Friday morning cooling down to the 60s again.
It will be difficult to find a cloud again Thursday, with dry advection in the boundary layer and high pressure ridging aloft.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s, making today feel more like a late summer day rather than the second day of fall. The weather is expected to remain quiet through the overnight with weak upper level ridging remaining in place. Temperatures will be similar and in the low to mid 80s again with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
A very slow moving upper level trough/low across east Texas will only inch slowly eastward through the weekend.
Low pressure coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest early this morning will track east along the Canadian border through Friday, with only breezy afternoon winds for our region. This doesn't deter the prospect of a stout, amplified ridge for the western CONUS, but this just may not be as broad as originally thought.
306 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through much of the weekend under high pressure.
Some drier and cooler air continues to work into the system as it slowly drifts to the northeast. Cooler air moving into the region on the western side of the low will keep the overnight lows in the 60s. Weak high pressure at the surface will sit in place over the forecast area during the weekend.
This won't last long as a cold front will pass through Minnesota and Wisconsin providing some chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing east of the trough axis through parts of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Further south across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, winds were light out of the south and temps ranged from the low 50s to the low 60s. South winds will lead to increasing humidity as dewpoints reach the lower 60s. Friday Breezy conditions are forecast as a low-level trough translating through the Northern Plains into Minnesota, increases the surface pressure gradient over Iowa/Illinois. SW gusts will range from 20-30 mph with the highest values northwest of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Deep boundary layer mixing and warm 850mb temps in the upper teens Celsius will help temps reach the low to mid 80s for afternoon highs.
322 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Some of the high-res models continue to hint at stratus developing toward dawn over portions of southeast KS. Upper ridging will increase overhead today while the remnants of tropical storm Beta jets on over to the Mid-Atlantic Region. Upper ridging will continue through tomorrow before coming more zonal into the weekend. A trough is progged to move out of Saskatchewan and rotate into Ontario/The Great Lakes Region this weekend.
A mid/upper level long wave trough will continue across the region today. The NAM and GFS close the low off by Friday with it centered across central and east TX. Despite the upper low, moisture will remain limited and a confluent flow in the upper levels will keep rain out of the forecast through Friday.
Upper ridging will build from the west over the southern plains through Friday morning.
105 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure will keep dry weather over central Pennsylvania into the weekend.
Areas where the clouds stick around through part of the day (the Hill Country, Austin Metro, and the I-10 corridor east of I-35) will all see slightly lower afternoon highs in the low 80s. Tonight should be mostly clear with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s, and highs on Friday under sunny skies should reach from the mid 80s to mid 90s across all of South Central Texas - with the hottest temperatures along the Rio Grande. This is all thanks to a weak ridge at the surface which will keep winds northerly for one more day. As the ridge slides eastward on Friday, following the trough that was once Beta, winds will be light but begin to shift around to the south signaling the return of Gulf moisture to the area.
Temperatures should be to be near to slightly warmer than today, with highs in the upper 80s for most. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, especially for southern portions of the area that remain south of an advancing cold front.