Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ WV imagery shows an upper level low over the central Texas Gulf Coast, which has resulted in rain for much of the ern half of the state today. Closer to home, a cold front moved through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico last night and this morning.
Models have upper ridging moving into Colorado tonight and over the CWA on Friday. The low level winds are progged to be fairly weak overnight and a mix of normal drainage patterns and downsloping. For temperatures, Friday's highs should be 3-6 C warmer than today's highs.
745 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 A low pressure system continues to develop over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida ahead of an upper-level trough. By mid-day tomorrow, the upper-level trough will force the low pressure center off to the NE out of our area, and the attendant cold front will be pushing through, drying things out and cooling temperatures throughout the day.
408 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE Dirty ridge to dominate northern and central NM next 24 hrs. Weak surface lee trough developing by 15/12Z. Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs across eastern and central portions of New Mexico are a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
648 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend. Split upper trof pattern over the ERN CONUS with high clouds streaming over the southern half of central PA from the southern stream trof axis extending from srn IL/IN to the Arklatex. Despite the high couds, fair weather will persist overnight as high pressure noses in from the west.
Have therefore updated the forecast to mention the possibility of this patchy dense fog overnight and with temperatures near freezing near and just prior to dawn, could see areas of freezing fog as well. A weak cold front across our extreme NW zones late this evening will attempt to slowly move into more of our region but it will likely be too little too late when it comes to fog development ahead of it later tonight. Model cross sections support this lower cloud cover giving way to a brief period of high MVFR/low VFR ceilings before we clear out completely later tonight.
Sunshine will return for Friday, allowing high temperatures to climb into the lower 40s. High pressure will slowly drift toward southwest Illinois overnight leading to lighter winds across the area, especially toward southwest Illinois. Expect lows to reach the upper teens tonight followed by highs reaching the lower 40s Friday.
Rains associated with an opening mid/upper level low advancing east off the Texas coast and accompanied with an inverted surface trof. This will by followed by a dry northerly flow through the column resulting in clearing skies between the exiting trof and modest ridge following through the plains.
high amplified upper ridging moves toward the area tonight Thursday and over the area Friday ahead of an upper level trough. High clouds will accompany the ridge axis before decreasing Friday night. Low temperatures tonight in the low 20s from Kit Carson to Tribune and points south with mid 20s to around 30 elsewhere. High temperatures Friday in the low 60s to low 70s, warmest along and west of the CO/KS border.
354 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will build across the region through Friday maintaining warmer than normal temperatures.
Temperatures will run a couple degrees warmer than today, but we remain around 10 degrees below the calculate normals. A weak cold front will sag southwards across the area Friday evening/overnight, though the lack of sufficient moisture and upper support will preclude precipitation chances for the area.
Otherwise, breezy west winds will develop on Friday, as warmer air moves into the region. It will turn cooler though on Friday night as an upper level disturbance moves through, producing scattered rain and snow showers.
RH time heights and H5-H3 progs show a brief break in the cloudiness followed by more Friday associated with a weak trough moving down the California coast. The only other upcoming change through the weekend will be an increase in north winds mainly the lower Colorado River Valley from Lake Mohave to Lake Havasu City this weekend. The closed upper low that develops west of the Baja Peninsula this weekend is slated to phase with a deeper/colder trough digging south through the Pac NW/California.
Still looks like the biggest result will be some partly cloudy skies as these waves run into the strong ridging over the area.
330 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Generally speaking high pressure will remain across the Upper Midwest which means dry conditions through Friday night. There will be a weak cold front sagging southward, and this could lead to some stratus that gets hung up in the weak flow and lingers throughout the day. On Friday night high pressure will drift eastward and a low pressure system will track across Canada.
728 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 A weak-dry cold front reaches southeast OH and northern WV tonight. Dry-weak cold front to reach portions of southeast OH and northern WV tonight.
537 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Conditions are expected to be favorable for radiational cooling tonight due to the presence of a ridge axis overhead in the wake of a cold front. The ridge axis will ensure light winds and limited cloud cover for most of the region tonight. Satellite imagery of the lingering snow field across the region indicates that substantial melting occurred today, which means that a fair amount of moisture has been added to the lowest level of the atmosphere. A gradual warming trend will continue on Fri with both highs and lows expected to be a few degrees warmer than they were on Thu.
655 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 A weak-dry cold front reaches southeast OH and northern WV tonight. An upper level low and surface reflection will develop across the southeastern U.
Generally speaking high pressure will remain across the Upper Midwest which means dry conditions through Friday night. There will be a weak cold front sagging southward, and this could lead to some stratus that gets hung up in the weak flow and lingers throughout the day. On Friday night high pressure will drift eastward and a low pressure system will track across Canada.
404 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Conditions are expected to be favorable for radiational cooling tonight due to the presence of a ridge axis overhead in the wake of a cold front. The ridge axis will ensure light winds and limited cloud cover for most of the region tonight. Satellite imagery of the lingering snow field across the region indicates that substantial melting occurred today, which means that a fair amount of moisture has been added to the lowest level of the atmosphere. A gradual warming trend will continue on Fri with both highs and lows expected to be a few degrees warmer than they were on Thu.
This low is positioned under the ascending right rear quadrant of an 80-90KT H30-H20 jet streak extending from the wrn GOMex to the Carolina Coast. Ahead of the low, low lvl onshore flow will combine with the nearly saturated airmass to allow sct shras to dvlp over the lcl Atlc and push onshore. The track of the low also will force the low lvl E/SE flow to become increasingly southerly overnight.
717 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Occasional high clouds and dry weather are expected tonight, as we remain under the influence of high pressure aloft. High pressure building over the region will bring mainly dry conditions to the area through Friday.
Behind this cold front water vapor imagery shows a trough axis pushing south and east across the middle part of the lower 48 this afternoon. Given the lack of better coverage in clouds we have seen warmer temperatures this afternoon, and did adjust this some earlier to account for this. This trough axis will push toward the region tonight and begin cutting off across the Lower Mississippi Valley as it does so. This trough axis will push across the southeast and lead to decreasing clouds across the north Friday. We will see some clouds stick in across the far southeast in association with the trough to the south. Friday night the models hint at a backdoor cold front pushing southwest and possible bringing some low level moisture back into the picture.
High pressure building over the region will bring mainly dry conditions to the area through Friday.
Some of this fog may lift toward the end of the afternoon, but once the sun sets, expect the low stratus to return.
Expect a decent surge of warm air by Friday afternoon, with perhaps a hint of mid level ridging, which should help yield clear skies.
Avery The main story for the forecast is the potential for fog for the next couple of nights in areas where snow is still present to melt, as the high pressure regime with light winds and strong radiative cooling will allow for development of dense fog.
232 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 The main story for the forecast is the potential for fog for the next couple of nights in areas where snow is still present to melt, as the high pressure regime with light winds and strong radiative cooling will allow for development of dense fog.
Mid and highs clouds can be expected through tomorrow as a ridge moves overhead.
550 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 For the 00Z TAFs, A surface trof of low pressure is forecast to organize across eastern CO and eastern NM on Friday. The upper level closed low continues to push east across southern Texas and the positively tilted trough continues to swing east as the low begins to congeal with the flow. Meanwhile a ridge builds just to the west of the Panhandles Friday with northwest flow aloft.
Sunshine will return for Friday, allowing high temperatures to climb into the lower 40s. That will set the stage for clear skies and light and variable winds the rest of the night, under high pressure. Low temps will likely dip into the teens in all of our CWA, even in eastern areas where temps are currently in the low 30s due to cloud cover. High pressure will slowly drift toward southwest Illinois overnight leading to lighter winds across the area, especially toward southwest Illinois. Expect lows to reach the upper teens tonight followed by highs reaching the lower 40s Friday.
1040 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Another mostly sunny and mild day is happening as the CWA remains underneath a ridge of high pressure. High clouds will increase from the west later this afternoon into the evening as the ridge axis shifts overhead and the flow eventually shifts to a southwest flow for Friday.
As the upper trough moves across the area skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast overnight. This all comes as an upper level trough swings across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures have remained in the 40s and 50s today thanks to abundant cloud cover and the approaching upper level trough. Clouds should gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight and allow temperatures in the Delta to drop to or slightly below freezing. Areas that see cloud cover will remain above freezing but still in the 30s. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 50s north to mid 50s south under plenty of sunshine.
Water vapor imagery depicts a digging mid/upper level trough across the Tennessee valley with a plume of mid/upper level moisture from the northern GoM northward into the mid-Atlantic region. The mid/upper level trough will continue to dig across the southeast inducing surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s area wide with lows Friday night in the mid 20s to low 30s which is still below normal.
The clouds are acting as a blanket, keeping temperatures a little warmer than originally thought. While those north of I-40 and west of I-65 should still fall into the mid-20s due to the clear skies, the rest of Middle TN may struggle to find the freezing mark. With a bit of a breeze, you may need a jacket today as Wind Chills may be in the low 40s for most of the day.
1247 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 Developing low pressure over the eastern Gulf will move across the peninsula the remainder of this morning and then into the Atlantic offshore the Florida northeast coast during Friday afternoon. East-southeast winds in the 6 to 8 knot range will become southeast to south toward 12Z, then becoming northwest at 10 to 15 knots after between 15-18Z as a trailing cold front moves south through the region.
237 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 A weak cold front extended across northern Minnesota and southern Lake Superior early this morning. This front will get nudged south through the area today as an area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes from Canada. The mixing does not look to be strong enough to eliminate the band of moisture and the clouds should reform over the area again tonight as the area of high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow develops over the region.
243 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 A cold front dropping across Lake Ontario will bring a few snow showers to Upstate New York through this evening. High pressure and clearing skies are forecast for the weekend.
253 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Current satellite shows a trough over the ArkLaTex region translating southeastward with large scale upper ridging over the southern Four Corners. With surface ridging building to our east in the wake of the upper wave mentioned above, this should result in southwesterly winds at the surface across the Panhandles. Ferguson Upper level trough approaching the northwest coast of the U.
1016 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper trof lifting east through the Red River valley. These clouds should slowly lift out during the overnight, with the eastward translation of the upper trof. /issued 234 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ A weak cold front currently stretches from near Greenville, Mississippi northeastward to Corinth, Mississippi.
1110 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Conditions are expected to be favorable for radiational cooling tonight due to the presence of a ridge axis overhead in the wake of a cold front. The ridge axis will ensure light winds and limited cloud cover for most of the region tonight. Satellite imagery of the lingering snow field across the region indicates that substantial melting occurred today, which means that a fair amount of moisture has been added to the lowest level of the atmosphere. A gradual warming trend will continue on Fri with both highs and lows expected to be a few degrees warmer than they were on Thu.
These conditions could allow for a few patchy areas of reduced visibilities within the higher terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas.
Upper level ridge continues to move eastward in the desert southwest and this should lead to another quiet weather day across the region for our Friday.
1157 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures for Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend. Split upper trof pattern over the ERN CONUS with high clouds streaming over the southern half of central PA late this evening from southern stream trof axis extending from srn IL/IN to the Arklatex. Despite the high clouds, fair weather will persist overnight as high pressure noses in from the west.
322 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 A cold front dropping across Lake Ontario will bring a few snow showers to Upstate New York through this evening. High pressure and clearing skies are forecast for the weekend.
1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend. Split upper trof pattern over the ERN CONUS with high clouds streaming over the southern half of central PA late this evening from southern stream trof axis extending from srn IL/IN to the Arklatex. Despite the high couds, fair weather will persist overnight as high pressure noses in from the west.
830 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2019 Friday will be a little cooler with a deeper marine layer and more extensive low clouds through midday. High pressure building over the Great Basin this weekend will bring sunny, warmer days and a shallower marine layer.
1232 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 A weak-dry cold front reaches southeast OH and northern WV tonight. Dry-weak cold front to reach portions of southeast OH and northern WV tonight.
The Evening Update: Incoming trof and vort max near 35N/130W will be spreading the next batch of cloudiness across the CWA tonite and into Fri morning. Approaching trof will increase onshore flow and marine influence, but will not result in a strong Delta Breeze. Still looks like the biggest result will be some partly cloudy skies as these waves run into the strong ridging over the area.
1027 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 06Z TAF CYCLE Dirty ridge to dominate northern and central NM next 18-24 hrs. Weak surface lee trough developing by 15/12Z. Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs across eastern and central portions of New Mexico are a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
/issued 1016 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper trof lifting east through the Red River valley. These clouds should slowly lift out during the overnight, with the eastward translation of the upper trof. /issued 234 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ A weak cold front currently stretches from near Greenville, Mississippi northeastward to Corinth, Mississippi.
340 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 As of 09Z Friday morning, the midlevel flow across the Plains was transitioning from northwest flow to zonal as a ridge axis traverses the Central and Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad ridge axis extended from the Southern Plains through the mid-MS river valley. Southerly flow will be enhanced by a deepening lee trough across the High Plains as a midlevel trough encroaches the Northern Rockies. Temperatures should be warmer tonight as a strengthening surface pressure gradient will allow for the boundary layer to remain coupled -- overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s in far eastern KS to the mid 30s in north central KS.
944 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 Low pressure will move slowly northeastward near the coast through Saturday bringing rain to the area.
428 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with upper trof just offshore the Pacific NW. Weak surface trof is pushing into the western Dakotas. Next upper wave currently just offshore the Pac NW coast will knock down the ridge late tonight and Saturday as it crosses the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Some light rain, possibly mixed with light snow from northeast WY into the Black Hills, will be possible very late tonight and Saturday behind the cold front.
remaining above the freezing mark. The other story will be the winds associated with a Pacific cold front crossing the area. The front will also promote deep mixing with warmer air aloft mixing to the surface as the front passes, this will help give a boost to highs and have warmed into the mid 60s across southwest Nebraska.
Dry and relatively cool conditions expected again today while a weak cold front sags south towards the region. Cloud coverage will increase mainly along and north of I-80 this afternoon with increasing moisture in the low levels (<4kft AGL) ahead of the approaching boundary. However, cross sections and forecast soundings indicate a saturated boundary layer (sfc to 3-4kft) by the evening and with no cloud ice present, some patchy light freezing drizzle is not out of the question with weak lift ahead of the front during the evening. High pressure will build back in on Saturday and expect limited cloud coverage by the afternoon as winds aloft veer east.
Pattern change still on track around mid week with some breezy winds and cooler temperatures forecast. Early this morning, clouds have begun to overspread the area as a trough moved onshore. The trough splits late Friday with a cut off low forming just off the coast of SoCal Friday night, and the northern portion digging into the Central great Basin Saturday. Ridging builds back into northern California at this time, remaining through the weekend.
Our next cold front will cross the region later this afternoon or early this evening. Valleys may be shadowed out of any precipitation early on, but once the cold front passes, snow showers (or a light rain/snow mix) will be possible overnight.
This wave will drop a cold front into the region tonight, which will likely limit the development of fog due to improved mixing. Precipitation chances seem limited but if any occurs will be a mix of rain, freezing rain or snow from late tonight into Saturday. Remainder of the period will feature a somewhat flat ridge over the west with westerly flow off the Pacific.
Ahead of this trough, we will see the corridor of strongest winds shift to the east and surface winds gradually become more westerly. This westerly wind would be conducive to a good warmup, but we will also have an increase in cloud cover ahead of this trough. As a result, temperatures are forecast to be similar to Friday, if not a degree or two cooler. By Saturday evening, this trough and associated cold front will be moving through the area.
Dry and relatively cool conditions is expected as a weak cold front sags south towards the region. Cloud coverage will stay mainly along and north of I-80 this afternoon with increasing moisture in the low levels (<4kft AGL) ahead of the approaching boundary. With no cloud ice present, some patchy freezing drizzle is not out of the question with weak lift ahead of the front during the evening. High pressure will build back in on Saturday and expect limited cloud coverage by the afternoon as winds aloft veer east.
350 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows our departing cold front now over the nrn Gulf while high pressure centered from the Missouri Valley to wrn TX ridges swd over the forecast area. and the potential for this deck to lower to a sfc-based cloud deck over the nwrn zones as winds continue to relax with the approach of high pressure. With dewpoints dropping into the 30s and high pressure settling over the region, expecting chilly conditions again tonight with lows ranging from the lower 30s over the nern zones to around 40 near the coast.
A change in the weather pattern will bring cooler and cloudier conditions to the region by midweek, along with the likelihood of widespread rain and mountain snowfall.
Dry and Warmer. Highs today will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, with lots of sunshine. Lows to will slightly warmer than this morning's lows, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
A ridge of high pressure over the area will shift very slowly east.
Quite mild today as the flow aloft turns zonal and surface lee troughing helps producing downslope warming southwest winds. Relatively mild overnight as the airmass continues to moderate with downslope winds helping to keep most locations slightly above freezing.
Cooler air aloft should help mix out the atmosphere late Friday into Saturday, so will let the current Air Stagnation Advisory go until 11am MST today.
Light stratiform rain behind the cold front is working east into the Nature Coast and eventually the Tampa area in the next couple hours.
Meanwhile, weak upper ridging wl be noted ovr the FA as a new upper storm system takes shape acrs the Rockies.
Winds stay light and out of the north today before switching back out of the southeast on Saturday as high pressure ridging settles in.
Upper level ridge continues to move eastward in the desert southwest and this should lead to another quiet weather day across the region for our Friday. The upper level ridge will give way to a longwave trough moving out of the northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon which will bring a cold front across western Kansas for Saturday night.