Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A fast moving low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds and areas of rain and high elevation snow showers to portions of northern and central Arizona by Monday afternoon. A second storm system will bring another chance of showers and cooler temperatures later this week. The low has a decent little fetch of eastern Pacific moisture associated with it, as well as some instability. Winds ahead of the low will be quite gusty from the southwest Monday afternoon, causing some areas of difficult driving from Flagstaff eastward. Ridges and peaks will be obscured within the MVFR/IFR conditions.
For today, the low clouds will be slow to depart and even when they do begin to break up, soundings show clouds quickly redevelop due to low CCLs. Given this, we should lose the low stratus, may see some blue skies late this morning or early this afternoon and then cloud back up mid afternoon.
315 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Dry and mild conditions are expected across NE Montana for today ahead of the next approaching cold front. Cooler, though still near seasonable temperatures are expected through the middle of the week. The forecast was trended toward consensus guidance for late in the period given the usual uncertainty and spread in model solutions, though this resulted in continued warming temperatures and dry weather conditions for now as early indications favor an upper ridge building across the western U. Look for most precipitation to hold off to the south and west of taf sites as a cold front approaches the area.
The upper low off the California coast will eject across the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing the possibility of strong to severe storms into southern and eastern Kansas.
Warm front lifts back to the north of Tues with activity limited to the far northern sections. Deese A cold front and fast moving upper level disturbance will be moving to the area Tuesday night.
Some Pacific moisture will begin to invade from the southwest late in the day with cloud cover increasing, and an isolated shower or two over the high country developing. Latest model data suggests the lower elevations should remain dry, but may see some virga develop in the overcast skies. The chance of precipitation increases over the lower elevations of the central and western zones by late in the day as a cold front pushes through in the afternoon.
Morning soundings from XMR/TBW still show too much dry air and subsidence aloft to support any mention of precipitation with the influence of the mid-level ridge on top of us. High temperatures will reach the low-mid 80s closer to the coast before the sea breeze moves through this afternoon cooling temperatures off a couple of degrees. Atlantic high pressure ridge will drift from central toward SOFL by late tonight.
Cool upper level trough over the area tonight through Tuesday night.
The trough, over central CA at this time will move quickly eastward, with the help a 150 kt jet max. The trough will be moving into southwestern CO by 6 pm this evening, and reach the CO/KS line by midnight tonight. This should help induce a Denver cyclone this afternoon. After 06z tonight, the models show subsidence developing as the trough exits into KS. In the mountains, light snow will continue but primarily orographic with any accumulating snowfall confined to the higher west facing slopes later this evening.
824 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Hot and dry high pressure will continue through mid-week. Temps are on track to climb into the lower to mid 80s along the coast and in the upper 80s inland. High pressure will keep light winds and seas through the week with afternoon sea breezes near the coast.
Showers look to gradually taper off through the morning hours tomorrow as the mid/upper trof axis departs to the east. Slight ridging aloft and in the mid levels coupled with drier low level flow, helps us to dry out tomorrow afternoon and through the overnight.
Warmer temperatures with breezy southerly winds today highlight the short term forecast period. With western and central North Dakota within the warm sector of the low today, low level warm air advection and southerly surface winds will warm temperatures well into the 50s for much of western North Dakota with 40s widespread further east (generally east and north of the Missouri River). Southerly flow continues overnight and low temperatures should stay mild with surface dew points reaching the low 30s in most areas.
Weak ridging follows our weekend winter storm as high pressure noses in from west. The weakness of this high pressure system and the fact that there is still some lingering vorticity around the area allows clouds to only slowly dissipate through the day Monday. With the cloud cover around and a snow pack on grassy areas, have knocked a few degrees off areas northwest of US-24, but areas south of US-24 should get into the low to mid 40s. Lows are then expected to fall back towards within a few degrees of either side of freezing. Active southern stream jet, which phases by midweek allows for an active week bring low pressure systems through the area.
This should keep temps in the low to mid 60s for NW OK. The stratus will quickly return after sunset to those areas that aren't already overcast as a lee low moves off the high plains late this evening and a fairly stout LLJ develops.
Expect cigs lowering during the evening, settling in the low MVFR or IFR category overnight. By mid week a strong upper level ridge will build across the region with no chance for rain and much above temperatures making things very warm and muggy. The next significant chance for rain won't be until the weekend as the ridge weakens enough to allow a cold front to move through. Rua The old warm frontal boundary has moved up into northern Louisiana and northeast Texas. The frontal boundary will have a tough time making to the forecast area as upper level ridging begins to build in from central old Mexico. Once the short wave moves off to the east, the main weather story will be the strong upper level ridge that will build across the Gulf of Mexico and into the forecast area.
Otherwise, south winds will be bringing in warmer air today and Tuesday. For tonight into Tuesday morning, the models all show a short wave trough coming across the region from the west.
HRRR is overdone with fog/low cloud formation over the high plains, with the SREF less extensive and further east. Meanwhile, a upper low off the southwest coast of British Columbia sinks south toward the WA/OR coast through Tuesday. Snow showers will persist tonight south of a Rawlins-Laramie line, with some fog development along the Cheyenne Ridge and Platte River Valley of western NE overnight tonight. The trough over the northwest CONUS swings south and east through the Intermountain West and Rockies by the end of the week.
503 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas with trof/warm front across Montana into Wyoming. Thermal profiles support highs near warmer end of guidance. As new upper trof digs into the Pacific Northwest, southwest impulse ejects into the central plains tonight. This pushes cold front into forecast area late Tuesday.
635 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Frontal system exits today, followed by short lived high pressure tonight.
Low pressure will sweep eastward across the forecast area today with showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow.
1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Steady showers have moved out of most of the forecast area as low pressure with cold front is now moving across east Tennessee late this morning.
/issued 255 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level ridging building over northern Mexico into deep south Texas will provide strong subsidence across the area through Tuesday. At the surface, developing low pressure area across the Southern Plains will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen through the period.
A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today. A cold front is presently approaching the area from the NW. An upper trough is sweeping down the Pacific NW coast at this time.
733 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Precipitation, mainly rain, will continue this morning with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. However, with high pressure still located over northern New England initially, southeast low-level flow will continue to promote modest cold-air damming, and therefore pockets of wintry precipitation across the far northern CWA and the ridges. Pockets of freezing rain are still possible in Garrett/eastern Tucker Counties, but any icing should be generally low impact and confined to elevated surfaces. With the New England high dislodging by afternoon, any threat of snow or freezing rain will end by midday as a result of the breakdown of southeast flow. Transient high pressure in mid-level zonal flow will provide dry weather overnight and for most of Tuesday.
Temps were generally in the lower 40s across the area, increasing to near 50 at Joplin. CLouds/precip will keep temperatures in the 60s,and perhaps cooler on Tuesday with warmest readings along the Missouri/Arkansas border.
Temperatures will range widely today with highs north of the boundary in the mid 60s and those south of it will warm into the lower 80s. Going into tonight, WAA ramps up again and the low levels begin to moisten. Overnight lows will fall only into the low to mid 60s across the area.
312 AM PDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A weakening low pressure system will move quickly inland across southern California today with showers decreasing this morning and ending this afternoon.
617 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Expect some slick spots this morning as roads are wet and temperatures are below freezing. Fog is expected to lift later this morning and slickness will end once temperatures rise above freezing.
A fast moving low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds along with rain and high elevation snow showers to portions of the area later this morning through the afternoon.
By mid week a strong upper level ridge will build across the region with no chance for rain and much above temperatures making things very warm and muggy. The next significant chance for rain won't be until the weekend as the ridge weakens enough to allow a cold front to move through. Rua The old warm frontal boundary has moved up into northern Louisiana and northeast Texas. The frontal boundary will have a tough time making to the forecast area as upper level ridging begins to build in from central old Mexico. Once the short wave moves off to the east, the main weather story will be the strong upper level ridge that will build across the Gulf of Mexico and into the forecast area.
/issued 215 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ High clouds will stream across the area today just ahead of a dampening shrtwv trof moving across nrn NM while the westerly mid- level flow will promote warming thru amplification of the low-level thermal ridge. A weak front in assocn with aforementioned dampening shrtwv trof is expected early Tue AM, thus the slightly cooler temps. Fire weather concerns will ramp up this week, especially across the higher terrain and Southeast New Mexico, as windy and dry conditions return to the region along with unseasonably warm temperatures. The expectation is that Red Flag Warnings may be needed for portions of the area later this week as the warm, dry, windy weather continues and a low level thermal ridge takes up residence over the region.
This will align with the developing / advancing warm frontal zone through the forecast area, and the quick eastward progression of the upper wave will confine precip chances across far E OK / NW AR to early Tuesday morning. Despite this uncertainty, the overall strength of the low level jet and associated upglide is likely to be sufficient to warrant high precip chances, however the strongest updrafts may remain more limited in coverage across the forecast area as suggested by most CAM solutions.
Mostly clear, drier, and warmer conditions are expected today, with highs climbing into the 50s. Upper level flow will begin to back to the southwest today, as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the area during the day as a warm front lifts north across the Mid- South. Warm advection showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected early in the day, in association with this warm front. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected midweek in the wake of the departing wave, but this will be short-lived as a strong trough digs over the western CONUS.
With thermal ridging ahead of an incoming cold front on Tuesday, high temps should reach the 40s across much of the area with some low 50s possible in the far south. 00Z Wed - 12Z Thu A short wave moves out of an upper low off the coast of BC and moves across southern MAN Tue night. Also a cold front will move out of Canada Tue night. Threat for freezing precip is quite low Tue night so will leave out threat out for now.
A low pressure trough will establish itself over the Northern Rockies this afternoon.
529 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Precipitation, mainly rain, will continue this morning with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. However, with high pressure still located over northern New England initially, southeast low-level flow will continue to promote modest cold-air damming, and therefore pockets of wintry precipitation across the far northern CWA and the ridges. Pockets of freezing rain are still possible in Garrett/eastern Tucker Counties, but any icing should be generally low impact and confined to elevated surfaces. With the New England high dislodging by afternoon, any threat of snow or freezing rain will end by midday as a result of the breakdown of southeast flow. Transient high pressure in mid-level zonal flow will provide dry weather overnight and for most of Tuesday.
The front that will usher in a cooler, wet pattern is approaching the coast of southern Oregon at this time. What is unusual about this front is that unlike usual fronts that bring colder air in behind them, this front will see a cooler air mass precede the cold front. This cooler air aloft will drop snow levels below 3000 ft near the coast by late morning.
Upper level flow will begin to back to the southwest today, as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
The trough will also support some instability for a few thunderstorms, which appear will stay confined to the far southern portion of the forecast area. Snow levels will be relatively high and solar insolation should keep impacts limited this afternoon, but once the sun goes down roads could become snow covered in the higher passes. The trough axis looks to cross the divide around midnight allowing the rates to decrease. Tomorrow westerly flow will be well established in the wake of the trough. The highest peaks could receive 6-12 inches over the next 48 hours, but the coverage is really low to warrant any products.
/issued 824 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ Hot and dry high pressure will continue through mid-week. Temps are on track to climb into the lower to mid 80s along the coast and in the upper 80s inland. High pressure will keep light winds and seas through the week with afternoon sea breezes near the coast.
Lows tonight in the low to middle 30s with exception of over the mountains. Tuesday will see rain/snow chances continue mainly across Carbon County early on before spreading eastward into the high plains in the afternoon. High a near repeat of Monday with upper 50s to middle 60s over the high plains and upper 40s to mid 50s west of the Laramie Range. The trough over the northwest CONUS swings south and east through the Intermountain West and Rockies by the end of the week.
A cold front will move through the region today bringing gusty surface winds ahead of the front. Cold front crossing the area from the northwest this evening.
A warm front will move slowly north across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temps that have been in the 50s most of the day will finally start to climb to the lower 60s to lower 70s in the next few hours. Weak cold front will move through the Panhandles mid to late morning, but skies will be mostly clear and temperatures should still make it into the 70s for most areas.
348 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A weak disturbance ahead of an upper trough currently crossing the Four Corners Region will reach western Nebraska late this afternoon. By evening, chances will increase across southwest NE into the cntrl Sandhills as the main upper trough moves in.
Medium Overall quiet wx this period as high pressure remains the dominating feature though nudging a bit to the east. We will see the high still in control into Tuesday night.
Precipitation associated with the pending change to a cooler and wetter period remains upstream over eastern Oregon, beginning to move into Idaho. Any wet roadways across Central or Southwest Montana could develop some icing Tuesday morning, particularly at the higher elevation passes. Mostly clear, drier, and warmer conditions are expected today, with highs climbing into the 50s. Upper level flow will begin to back to the southwest today, as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
Dry weather will continue into tomorrow, but a low pressure system tracking along the Ohio River will bring rain in starting tomorrow afternoon. Ridging and dry conditions will continue through the rest of today and tonight and low level clouds will continue for most of the area as an inversion is in place. Models have continued to trend towards the low tracking further south than previous runs were showing, which will shift the rain further south as well, and lower rainfall amounts are expected for central Indiana, with highest amounts of near a half inch across our southern counties.
106 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Occasional showers will continue into this afternoon before high pressure builds tonight and Tuesday.
850 mb moisture was somewhat limited in our area, with the highest values from south TX into the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was off to our east and we were in south or southeast low level flow.
1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Occasional showers will continue into this afternoon before high pressure builds tonight and Tuesday.
High pressure building in from the midwest tonight followed by a partly to mostly sunny Tuesday.
Dry and mild conditions are expected across NE Montana for today ahead of the next approaching cold front. Cooler, though still near seasonable temperatures are expected through the middle of the week. The forecast was trended toward consensus guidance for late in the period given the usual uncertainty and spread in model solutions, though this resulted in continued warming temperatures and dry weather conditions for now as early indications favor an upper ridge building across the western U.
141 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas with trof/warm front across Montana into Wyoming. Thermal profiles support highs near warmer end of guidance. As new upper trof digs into the Pacific Northwest, southwest impulse ejects into the central plains tonight. This pushes cold front into forecast area late Tuesday.
Steady showers have moved out of most of the forecast area as low pressure with cold front is now moving across east Tennessee late this morning. Low ceilings and visibilities have continued across the eastern Tennessee Valley today with rain still falling ahead of a cold front that is moving through this afternoon. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 71 59 71 49 / 20 100 100 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 65 58 67 47 / 10 100 100 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 64 57 67 46 / 10 100 100 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 65 53 65 45 / 10 90 100 50 0.
158 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 An upper low was located over Srn CA this morning as a ridge remains over Mexico. This low will quickly move east and open up as it does reaching the TX Panhandle by early Tuesday.
High pressure stretches from the Atlantic and across the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon while a front has stalled over North Louisiana. A warm and humid air mass is being pushed onshore by the ridge and ahead of the front. A ridge aloft will build over the area Tuesday through the end of the week. Rain chances during the middle of the week will be minimal if any while the ridge is overhead.
Afternoon high temperatures be in the mainly in the lower to mid 40s. Minor upper air and satellite imagery shows upper trough well east of IL with weak upper level rough moving east through the MO valley. As a result, am expecting cloudy skies across the board today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across the far north where a light snow cover exists.
Winds stay breezy through the night, with the highest gusts to near 27 kts this afternoon. /issued 255 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level ridging building over northern Mexico into deep south Texas will provide strong subsidence across the area through Tuesday. At the surface, developing low pressure area across the Southern Plains will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen through the period.
343 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Issued at 343 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2020 The fog and low clouds limited our heating today with high temperatures only climbing into the lower 50s. Models have been trending south for the low which is causing the MUCAPE, LLJ, and WAA to also trend south. This system quickly moves out of the area by the late afternoon with higher pressure and some upper level ridging pushing back into the area.
A Pacific cold front will move across the region from west to east tomorrow morning helping to clear out skies and shift winds to west northwesterly behind the front. Despite the cold front, temperatures tomorrow will soar into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region as mid level ridging builds in.
Overnight, a warm front will begin to return Northward likely approaching the Tennessee state line by 7 am. Dew points should be in the low to middle 60s tomorrow afternoon resulting in CAPE between 500 and 1,000J/kg.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 60s. Deep layer ridging aloft will suppress showers and therefore will keep pops 10 percent or less and mainly over our marine waters.
411 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes and another over the Pacific NW and another in CA.
Afternoon high temperatures be in the mainly in the lower to mid 40s. Morning upper air and satellite imagery shows upper trough well east of IL with weak upper level rough moving east through the MO valley. As a result, am expecting cloudy skies across the board today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across the far north where a light snow cover exists.
Storm chances to increase tonight with highest coverage/best severe potential aligning with the developing warm front, which at this time appears to be across far NE OK and into NW/WC AR late tonight.
A fast moving low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds along with rain and high elevation snow showers to portions of the area through the afternoon.
216 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 This evening will start off dry with variable cloud cover, as high pressure moves east of the region. Late tonight/early Tuesday morning, a warm front at H8 will lift northeast into the area in conjunction with some mid level support. The low track should be somewhere close to the MO/AR and KY/TN borders.
220 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 The ridging that's been giving us the relatively quiet weather, including the warmer-than-normal day today, begins to break down tonight into tomorrow. In addition, a cold front will trek across the area bringing a quick hit at some light rain and/or snow tonight into tomorrow as well as a brief cooling of temperatures.
349 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure will build northeast across the region tonight and Tuesday.