Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convection should be gradually winding down during the latter half of the period as a cold front shifts through the region. Associated thunderstorm outflow has bumped up a few more showers for the SHV/BO metro area and of course the huge synoptic trough is still on approach.
Beyond that, the short term forecast is a dry one as upper level ridging over the western third of the CONUS slowly starts to build over into the northern plains region. More sunshine is expected further west over the CWA, with readings topping out in the low to mid 70s. Further west, a light south-southeast wind is forecast to develop overnight, which should help to keep temperatures up a bit, moreso in the low to mid 40s. Much warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday as a boundary with all the makings of being a warm front pushes into the western CWA by the end of peak heating.
Thurs-Sun: The current pattern begins to shift later this week as the low pressure system that is developing over the central U. A frontal system associated with the low will bring an increase in rain chances.
1051 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 A trough and upper low have formed near Raton Pass over southern CO this morning. Additionally, an area of channeled vorticity will be over western portions, feeding into the base of the trough.
1252 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will dominate the pattern through Wednesday night with seasonable temperatures and light breezes developing off the ocean.
Wrap around precipitation and cloud cover will be the main sensible weather impacts from this low today and into tonight. The first impact of this low will be temperatures. The highest precipitation amounts are expected across central Kansas. Right now have the highest pops east of Highway 283 with the main focus on the Highway 281 corridor. The overall synoptic pattern is that a 500-hPa ridge starts to move northward out of Mexico. Increasing mid level heights and WAA at the low levels will lead to rebounding temperatures. More hot temperatures with values firmly in the 90s still looks likely over the weekend as the ridge prevails. Sfc winds will become occasionally breezy as the lee trough prevails for several days.
1036 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Key Messages: - Wet tonight/Wed, showers slowly ending Thursday - Warming up for the weekend Rainy Tonight-Wednesday Bits of upper level energy will spin across the Upper Mississippi River valley tonight-Wed, kicking out of a trough/closed low progged to hang south of the local forecast area. Thus, in general, with the trough and the deformation zone shifting southeast, the highest precipitations chances will follow.
A warm front is in the process of lifting northward through Middle Tennessee, and we're already starting to see some cells appear along the Alabama state line. Expect more widespread convection tomorrow and tomorrow night and Thursday as a strong cold front edges closer to Middle Tennessee, with fropa likely to take place Thursday afternoon. It will take some time for us to clear out following the frontal passage since the upper low will pass so close to Middle Tennessee.
Lows will bottom out in the middle 50s to middle 60s with the warmer temperatures in the southwestern CWA.
Showers and a few storms continue to stream northward ahead of a slow moving upper low over the central/southern Plains. Flood advisory over southern MO accounts for the low water crossing/minor flooding hazard with additional rainfall over the next few hours. Drier air aloft rotating around the upper low moves into the area from the southwest later in the afternoon and will limit the overall coverage of showers and instability during that time once the banded convection moves off to the northeast. Thursday: The upper low will move across the region.
1045 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 A low pressure system continues to slowly make an eastward progression. Rainfall reports have ranged from one inch to over seven inches with the highest values in Harper and Sumner counties. Precipitation and cloud cover aided in temperatures to stay in the low 50s to low 60s. Highlights: 1) Cool then warm up to end week 2) Rain chances through Wednesday but early Thu for SE KS 3) Localized flooding through Thursday Changes: 1) Modified precipitation chances tonight-Thu 2) Cancelled part of of Flood Watch The low should slowly keep its eastward push through the Central Plains.
Several ensemble members and CAM models hint at a band of rain forming on the back side of the upper level low.
The low pressure system has crossed over the Divide into the High Plains leaving us in northwest flow aloft. On the backside of the low moisture trapped under steep lapse rates aloft has resulted in some instability. Terrain-driven showers have already developed across the higher terrain. Some of the high valleys like the upper Yampa, central Colorado and upper San Juan may still see freezing temperatures tonight. Warm advection develops tonight under a ridge that will build in behind the departing low. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today with mostly sunny skies. The latest models are in good agreement with a ridge moving in from the west Wednesday night and Thursday to warm the region under mostly sunny skies and generally light westerly breezes.
However, tonight, as a 40kt LLJ develops and a longwave trough shifts closer to the Mississippi river, showers and thunderstorms should flourish. Tomorrow, the trough will shift even closer to the Midsouth allowing storms to tap into marginally better dynamic energy. An area of enhanced area of southwest flow from east Texas across the lower Mississippi River will help to sustain updrafts. Additionally, numerous outflow boundaries will likely be in place and a warm front will lift north across the Midsouth ahead of the approaching longwave trough and attendant surface cold front. Thursday, the longwave trough axis should shift into Middle Tennessee and Alabama bringing an end to the severe threat across most of the Midsouth. However a cutoff upper level low will continue to produce showers and maybe a few sub-severe thunderstorms across the Midsouth.
Prominent ridging aloft develops over western and central Wyoming, producing a dry and warm day with 700 mb temperatures rising to near 10 Celsius, yielding maximum temperatures from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Ridging aloft moves overhead of our forecast area, keeping it dry. Temperatures will be even warmer than the previous night as the airmass continues to moderate.
North-northwest winds will occur overnight in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Temperatures will be cooler, with Wednesday morning lows ranging from the lower 50s in our northwestern counties, to around 60 in the far southern part of our area.
1138 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Dry weather will be maintained through the night with departing high pressure and still-present mid-level ridging. Rain chances are still progged to increase late Wednesday as ern CONUS ridging erodes and srn Plains low pressure develops along the lower MS River Valley, with further warming and a humidity increase expected across wrn zones especially. The weekend will be largely unsettled as an upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS and supports periodic convection and seasonably warm temperature. The next chance of general restrictions arrives with low pressure on Thursday.
353 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 The weather across the Florida Keys early this morning is warm and muggy, but breezy, with air temperatures holding steady in the lower 80s most locations. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been developing and moving quickly in deep east-southeast flow, with highest coverage of rainfall west of the Seven Mile Bridge. The overall synoptic pattern features a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the South Atlantic Bight region, with the Florida Keys along its southern flank. High pressure centered off of the southeast United States will merge with high pressure moving off the New England coast by Thursday.
(Today) Another unseasonably cool day is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low wobbles across Oklahoma into Kansas.
1123 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Upper trough is deepening as it digs into the central states, with moisture wrapping into NE and southern SD. Surface winds are light and southeasterly, and temperatures are rising into the lower 60s. Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with clouds and possibly some showers lingering longest over south central SD, as the upper low gradually shifts east. Lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s - staying above freezing on the plains. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS Wednesday, a warming trend will begin.
The surface and parent upper Lows still to the west today yield a warm advective, southerly flow across our region.
The main closed upper low, currently near the Oklahoma Panhandle, will slowly move east throughout the day today. A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight and serve as a focus for additional rainfall tonight through Thursday afternoon.
Wednesday: The low will be located over south central Kansas by Wednesday morning. Any dry time tomorrow likely won't be long lived with the low moving into the area by Wednesday afternoon. The Low will eventually push to the east of the area by Thursday afternoon with dry weather finally returning. Northerly winds and cool temperatures will remain during the day with highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s.
Lows will drop down into the 50s and 60s as a cold front moves east into the state. The center of the upper low will rotate over NRN AR on Thu. especially under this upper low. Expect cooler temps for Thu as well behind the front. and under the closed upper low. All moisture will exit the region by Thu night as the upper low moves east of AR.
Some cooler temps dipping into the upper 40s could filter in behind the front late tonight west of highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma For the update.
205 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 Water vapor imagery showing an upper ridge forming along the west coast. Heights will build today as the ridge expands east. This will be provide a dry and warmer day with temperatures reaching the mid 70s. The upper ridge will amplify a bit on Thursday, with the axis sliding over the western half of the forecast area during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s in many places. The ridge will get pushed east late afternoon into Thursday evening and open the door for some convection over the far west, but this should hold off until the evening. TWH Another trough digs into southeastern Montana Thursday night, bringing big changes for the Memorial Day weekend.
1219 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Upper level low pressure from southwest Kansas into the northeast Texas Panhandle will slowly steer to the east of the area into southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma later today. Cooler air filling in behind the upper level low over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma will drop overnight lows area wide, into the mid-40s. Northerly winds tomorrow afternoon will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s, even as heights and thickness' increase from the building ridge to our west. Breezy early afternoon winds will begin to ease as the ridge expands eastward, setting up a very pleasant Spring day and evening tomorrow. This is thanks to an upper low lumbering its way out of the southern Great Plains Wednesday night ahead of upper ridging with strong height rises and toasty thicknesses for the weekend.
936 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022 Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days as high pressure returns to the region. A warm front moving into the Inland Northwest is producing wet roads over Stevens Pass. Dew point depressions are quite larger over the basin with temperatures still in the low to mid 60s. The mountains over northeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle will see 30% to 50% chance for measurable rainfall come Wednesday morning as the the warm front increases moist isentropic ascent over this portion of the region by this time. With moisture mostly remaining aloft, most of the lowlands will just see thick clouds, if not some sprinkles, through Wednesday. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A warm front will move across the region overnight.
300 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Upper level low pressure over northwest Oklahoma early this morning will continue to the east moving into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas later today. Clouds will tend to decrease and maximum temperatures today will warm mostly to the lower to mid 70s, or around 15 degrees below normal for late May.
1014 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance High pressure that was in overhead early this morning has been slowly shifting east through the day as an area of low pressure takes shape in the southern plains. Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low pressure over the southern plains quickly moves northeast to Northern Lake Michigan. Warmer weather is expected for the Memorial Day weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern U.
A high pressure ridge will be building in and become aligned over the spine of the Rockies by late tomorrow. Unfortunately that will only be temporary as the pattern does not favor this ridge hanging around for long. This will end the threat of freezing temperatures in the valleys while increasing the runoff rate of rivers.
A cold front will keep winds up/gusty for a few hours, then ease up overnight. (Today through Thursday afternoon) The cold front that provided yesterday's weather is now well east of the area. High pressure is now building south behind the front and will provide north winds and slight cold air advection throughout today. An upper level ridge will approach from the west, increasing subsidence and eliminating any rain chances.
Winds however should pick up during the late evening and overnight, ranging in the 5-15 mph range with some higher gusts, especially in the higher terrain. This will pull a cold front into the lower MS Valley. Deep southerly flow ahead of the system will pull moisture up from the Gulf and advect in warmer temps. Daytime highs are forecasted to reach the lower 80s. There's another round expected ahead and along the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precip chances will decrease through Thursday night as the cold front exits the forecast area.
419 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure remains in control of the area through Thursday.
High pressure will bring warmer weather to areas away from the coast through Wednesday. A slightly warmer day is likely for coastal areas thanks for somewhat earlier clearing times compared to today.
Warmer weather returns to the area beginning Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms also increase by Thursday ahead of a cold front.
This activity is occurring in a broad zone of WAA from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest on the east side of an upper level low across the Southern Plains. As the upper low moves slowly eastward today and tomorrow closer to us, increasingly fast southerly winds at all levels will promote strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico with PWATs rising up to 1.
136 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure remains in control into midweek before shifting east on Thursday.
936 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 The forecast looks to be in good shape with another beautiful day on tap, just a little warmer than yesterday. Issued at 408 CDT Wed May 25 2022 For today through tonight, upper low pressure sits over the central/southern plains with surrounding ridges over both coasts.
Some hi-res/CAMs models suggest another round of showers and non-severe thunderstorms later this afternoon as the main upper-level trough axis and the sfc cold front slide through the region.
627 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 (Today) Another unseasonably cool day is on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low wobbles across Oklahoma into Kansas.
High pressure will build over the region over the next couple days leading to a warming trend and lower desert high temperatures above 100 degrees today.
419 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Overall upper level scenario features a trough over the central United States with a closed low over the south central Plains near the base of the synoptic trough. Today will be rather cool thanks to the influence of the nearby upper closed low. More rain chances will continue for today into tonight as the low slowly nudges east. Rain chances will continue to decrease as the low continues to move east. Based on latest model spreads, a combo of NBM and Conshort seemed appropriate for highs Thursday in the 70s (cooler temps to the east).
(Today through Thursday afternoon) The cold front that provided yesterday's weather is now well east of the area. High pressure is now building south behind the front and will provide north winds and slight cold air advection throughout today. An upper level ridge will approach from the west, increasing subsidence and eliminating any rain chances.
The thermal trough will shift inland today which typically results in warmer temperature for the interior westside valleys. The upper ridge will shift east tonight with upper troughing setting up west of the forecast area Thursday with a southwest flow aloft ahead if it. The upper trough axis swings north of the area Thursday night which will result in a more west to southwest flow.
1025 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 Dry weather will continue through Thursday along with temperatures just slightly warmer than seasonal normals. Unsettled weather returns later Thursday through the weekend as a low pressure system moves over the Northeast. The near term portion of the forecast for today through Thursday will continue to feature dry weather with temperatures slightly warmer than seasonal normals. A surface warm front will lift just north and west of our forecast area as a low pressure system lifts north through the Great Lakes region. Our region will remain in the warm sector of this aforementioned low pressure system on Thursday as the low lifts northeastward into Canada. A closed upper low upstream of our forecast area will be responsible for a showery period starting Thursday night.
642 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 (Today and tonight) The pesky upper low will move slowly over the area today and tonight with areas of showers again before moving east of the area late tonight. This area of showers will eventually pivot east today, with another area of showers developing in the north close to the mid-level cyclone with some wrap-around precipitation also expected west of the cyclone. All of this will shift eastward tonight as the cyclone moves east.
Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will leave out any mention of weather for now. Thurs-Sun: The current pattern begins to shift later this week as the low pressure system that is developing over the central U. A frontal system associated with the low will bring an increase in rain chances.
932 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will remain in place east of New England through midweek.
1018 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 A deep layered ridge sits along the entire eastern U. To the west a deep quasi cut-off upper level low sits across the mid-Mississippi River Valley and is slowly trying to shift eastward. A moisture plume located along the outermost edge of the ridge is pivoting through our western waters and into into the northern Gulf Coast states. Otherwise, temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis: High pressure centered off of the southeast United States will merge with high pressure moving off the New England coast by Thursday.
1000 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure northeast of Florida continues to ridge west keeping a predominant SE wind flow over west central and southwest Florida for one more day. Current temperatures are already in the 80s and will continue to warm up topping out in the low to mid 90s. Looking farther west, scattered showers and storms are showing up on radar beyond 60 nm in response to increased tropical moisture and southerly winds in advance of an area of low pressure and frontal boundary over the central U.
716 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will remain in place east of New England through midweek.
Issued at 408 CDT Wed May 25 2022 For today through tonight, upper low pressure sits over the central/southern plains with surrounding ridges over both coasts.
907 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 The surface cold front has pushed through all areas this morning taking the bulk of the convection with it. Still seeing a few elevated showers/storms associated with the mid level front/trough. The cold front will continue to push south across the area this morning--earlier than model guidance suggested, though a few lingering showers are possible through the afternoon. North winds today will lead to cooler temperatures, with highs topping out in the 80s across South Texas. High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and persist through Thursday. Temperatures will increase back into the 90s Thursday as onshore flow returns and high pressure takes control.
408 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Issued at 408 CDT Wed May 25 2022 For today through tonight, upper low pressure sits over the central/southern plains with surrounding ridges over both coasts.
A cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon and night.
510 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 An upper low over western Kansas early this morning will continue to pull away with an upper ridge beginning to pull into the region. This ridge will be in place over the Rockies Thursday. Not out of the question, that a weak disturbance moving up and around the ridge could result in very isolated convection across the extreme northwest late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonal today, and about 10 degrees above average on Thursday as a thermal ridge will be over the forecast area.
314 AM MST Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will build over the region over the next couple days leading to a warming trend and lower desert high temperatures above 100 degrees today.
500 mb trough/upper low over Oklahoma with flow south to north into Minnesota. This trough/low will track east the next 24 hours. Strength of downstream ridging will likely play a key indicator in moisture advection within the lower levels, and subsequently instability and severe risk.
627 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will remain in place east of New England through midweek.
The closed low will make slow eastward progress today, continuing chances for precipitation, albeit much lighter rainfall totals expected compared to yesterday. Temperatures today will remain on the below normal side, with readings in the lower to mid 60s, with the exception of a few 70s out east. An even cooler day is expected on Thursday as the center of the upper low wanders into the Ozark Plateau, with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Additionally, lapse rates are not impressive, and a stout cap looks to develop for much of the day as the ridge to our east builds a bit through the day. Highs will likely end up in the low and mid 80s across the area, with the northern portions of our area possibly staying slightly cooler if clouds take a while to clear. Lows should be warmer as moisture increases in a southeasterly flow regime behind the northward advancing backdoor front. Upper ridge offshore moves east in response to mature cyclone/closed low moving from the Mid Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will be approaching from the Gulf coast region late.
The cold front will continue to push south across the area this morning--earlier than model guidance suggested, though a few lingering showers are possible through the afternoon. North winds today will lead to cooler temperatures, with highs topping out in the 80s across South Texas. High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and persist through Thursday. Temperatures will increase back into the 90s Thursday as onshore flow returns and high pressure takes control.
1049 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure remains in control of the area through Thursday.