Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An exiting upper level ridge will keep this morning dry but a weak front will spread inland starting late this morning to bring light rain to the area once more.
A cold front is moving through southeastern New Mexico early this morning, well ahead of any model offerings prior. Will have to monitor on whether to add the lower ceilings to other terminals later tonight. Expect gusty winds will settle down late this morning, but a secondary push behind the cold front may occur this afternoon/evening.
As the upper low shifts slowly east today, the surface cold front will begin to make eastward progress, shifting the heaviest precip into eastern Oklahoma by late today. As upper low come out late tonight into Sunday morning, there could be some light snow mix with the rain or perhaps temporarily change over to all snow across northwest Oklahoma.
/Issued 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ A cold front continues to slide south across the Panhandles, winds have shifted out of the north and increased 15 to 25kts with slightly higher gusts. Ceilings will continue to lower behind the cold front but should remain VFR/MVFR until early Saturday morning. /Issued 443 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ Showers developing this afternoon across much of the Panhandles as a vigorous upper low near the Four Corners region digs south and east across central and eastern New Mexico tonight through Saturday. The upper low is then forecast to track northeast across the central Texas Panhandle and northeastern portions of the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday morning.
506 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Through Sunday: Similar to yesterday, surface analysis overlaid with 500 mb shows a broad troughing from the Ohio Valley to the southern plains and a cold front draped southward along the Appalachians. For today, models indicate the 592 dm upper level high pressure center to edge northward over the western Atlantic.
420 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather today with another day similar to yesterday with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer, still about 15 degrees below normal. High pressure slides north of Lake Superior tonight as low pressure in Texas moves toward northeast Oklahoma.
Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest OK near KLAW.
Moisture surges northward overnight as upper low begins to eject eastward into the Southern Plains. Have some concerns about the impact of convection over the lower Missouri River valley Saturday evening and night robbing a bit of the moisture and holding QPF values down especially north of I-90. The westward trend in the upper low also pushes QPF well west towards central SD by late afternoon and lowers overall QPF over Iowa slightly.
Soundings do show plenty of instability this afternoon, but there will be a bit of a cap and little trigger in the warm sector so will keep the forecast mainly dry today except closer to the warm front over portions of southern IN. With the high instability, if any storms do develop, they could become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail. For Sunday, a low pressure system will start to eject northeast out of the Plains. A line of showers and storms will develop to our west ahead of the cold front associated with this system. Another Round of Heavy Rain and Some Severe Potential Late Showers and storms ahead of a cold front associated with a low pressure system will continue to cross the region on Sunday evening into the overnight hours.
Deep layer high pressure remains in place across the region at this hour.
252 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A weak cold front will drop south through the region early today and will stall south of New England tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will crest over the region early Sunday before shifting offshore.
With a closed low system, tend to favor the slower solutions.
506 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will provide the subsidence needed for a dry day with a lot of sunshine. It deepens as it does so and closer vertical stacking of the low slows the whole system. As the low moves toward Iowa it spreads its precipitation shield into the southeast part of the forecast area, the Dickey county area.
The persistent closed low that has been spinning in place over Saskatchewan will open and drift on northeast into Manitoba today. The showers associated with this low also drift away from Northeast Montana. However a narrow upper trough forms along the front range of the Canadian and Northern Rockies today. This trough reaches our area, initiating scattered to isolated rain showers.
622 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A weak cold front will drop south through the region early today and will stall south of New England tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will crest over the region early Sunday before shifting offshore.
336 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Warmer than normal temperatures will make it feel like the beginning of Summer rather than Springtime today. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue off the southeast coast Today and Sunday.
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Warm front lifts through overnight.
138 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley. A much warmer airmass will be in place across the area through the weekend.
628 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday.
410 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A warm front will move slowly north from the Ohio River this morning to southern Michigan Sunday causing showers and scattered thunderstorms in our area. Cool temperatures tonight will warm considerably Sunday behind the warm front. A cold front will sweep across the area Sunday night causing showers and possibly thunderstorms.
423 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop today along a slow moving warm front. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie.
434 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with closed lows over the four corners area and across south central Canada. At the surface, high pressure was located across the Dakotas.
1119 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now over eastern CO, with dry high pressure over ND. Upper level analysis shows broad upper trough covering the western and central US, with low pressure within it sinking south across eastern UT and western CO. Strong upper jet wraps around the low from the Pacific NW to the Southern Plains. The highest totals were in the Gillette area and across parts of southern Campbell County, where 6+ inches were reported, with around 12 inches in parts of the Gillette area. Upper level low will continue to sink south to the Four Corners area tonight, with remaining pcpn sliding south and west out of the area with it by this evening.
Elsewhere, conditions will gradually improve throughout the day, and partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies with warmer temperatures will prevail. Cool and wet weather will be quick to return as a cold front starts hedging toward the region early Sunday. Forecast soundings and hi-res models suggest that stronger showers developing along the cold frontal boundary in north- central Idaho and southwest Montana could produce strong gusty winds and isolated lightning strikes Sunday afternoon/evening.
638 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Sunday and help keep any thunderstorms mainly associated with heating isolated.
The broad upper trough currently over the western CONUS will translate slowly eastward this weekend. The core of trough will be over the upper MS Valley late Sunday night, while the attendant surface cold front will be moving into southeast AL and the FL Panhandle.
326 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A cold front will cross the area this afternoon followed by high pressure on Sunday.
The upper low near the Four Corners region will move slowly southeast into the southern Rockies today. Strong high pressure aloft will finally reach the area around the middle of the week.
RAP, NAM, and GFS were all in good agreement in shifting this area of enhanced lift west and north today as the upper low, located near the four corners region at 00z Saturday, moves east across New Mexico. This plus the additional snowfall expected tonight into early Sunday given the location of the TROWAL/mid level deformation zone ahead of the approaching upper low then snow totals in excess of 9 inches will be possible before this event ends.
Excessive rainfall will still be expected along the surface warm frontal zone from south of KPOF to KCIR, to sough of KEHR and near KOWB. A warm front is lifting north across the region. Will continue to monitor closely as warm front lifts north, and we warm sector. Sunday still looks active and as we transition to cold front and it's passage, into Sunday night, pcpn ending west to east.
An area of low pressure will become cut off over the western great lakes at the start of the period with an occluded front pushing east across the Ohio river valley.
340 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A warm moist southerly flow will continue through the weekend, as a strong high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast U. It will definitely feel like summer today as central NC as an area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extends across our region. Finding it difficult to justify high temps as much as 7-8 degrees, primarily over the western Piedmont, Sunday afternoon with little notable change in the low level air mass. Surface and upper level ridge does weaken with upper heights 30-50m lower than today, but warm/moist sly flow will maintain the summer-like air mass.
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley tonight. This warm front should be north of the area by Sunday morning.
329 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Upper low seen clearly on water vapor imagery this morning over SW CO will move slowly ESE'ward today and tonight before finally ejecting NE'ward through the southern and central plains on Sunday. A powerful surface cyclone will develop over KS on Sunday in response to the ejecting trough. Areas of light snow or drizzle/freezing drizzle persist along and just east of the Laramie Range early this morning as weak mid level energy interacts with the shallow moist upslope NE'ly flow. As the upper low continues to push ESE this morning, expect any lingering precip to come to an end.
858 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Upper low over southeast Montana with tail end of upper trof across northern Colorado. The upper low was over central Montana this afternoon with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. NAM12 spatial cross-sections show mountain wave developing tonight but this should impact primarily the higher east facing mountain slopes and higher foothills.
Upper level ridge centered to the southwest and upper low to the east have moved little today, but the ridge is progged to build back across S TX tonight through Wed. Capping inversion, ridge aloft and a slightly drier airmass will keep precip out of the forecast the remainder of Wed and Wed night. This will also lead to mx temps being a degree or two warmer on Wed.
Similar to yesterday, storms have already developed over the higher terrain.
1027 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low centered over Montana. Extending southeast and south from it was a cold front with a dry line just east of the front. Tonight the cold front and dry line will be just east of the Tri- State Area in the early evening. As the dry line is retreating an upper level short wave trough will deepen over it. This deepening trough should cause storm development just east of Gove, Graham and Norton counties where the CINH will be lower. Have left a mention of tornadoes out of the HWO due to the low confidence to the storms becoming surface based even if they do form. Wednesday will be dry due to a dry environment in place behind the cold front from today.
929 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front, will drop southward through the region this evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending by later tonight.
739 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A warm and muggy air mass will be replaced as a cold front crosses the region this evening. Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will move in for the mid week period.
/issued 333 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ The forecast area finds itself between the semi-permanent sub- tropical upper ridge to our south and a pretty strong closed low over the northern Rockies. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow over the southern High Plains is helping the dryline mix eastward into the western part of the forecast area while east of the dryline healthy moisture exists indicated by surface dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s across the eastern half of the forecast area. The northern Rockies upper low will lift northeastward into the Prairie Provinces Wednesday, allowing the upper ridge to our south to expand northward.
1052 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Aviation Section Updated Showers and thunderstorms continue to wrap around a mid-upper level cyclone centered over east-central portions of MT this evening. Deeper convection of earlier this evening, primarily focused over N-central MT, will continue on a decreasing trend tonight as the upper low fills and drifts northeast and the airmass becomes less unstable, with brief heavy rainfall rates being the main threat with stronger cells through the remainder of this evening. Hoenisch An upper level low will pull northward and exit the region tonight.
Temperatures are slow to decline from the warm day and thus, majority of model guidance hints at overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than initially forecasted.
Upper air charts from 12z showed a closed low centered near central MT, with height falls of up to 140 meters. There was a 95 knot jet max south of the low across UT and WY. Thermal ridge at 700 mb extended from TX up into KS and NE.
We continue in this wet pattern with surface ridging to the east with weak open flow bringing moisture into the area off of the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, we have a weak low pressure system sitting over the Alabama Coast/Florida Panhandle. Slight upper-level ridging builds across Central AL through the day on Wednesday leading to synoptic subsidence.
Ridge over us showing signs of losing its cap, as cumulus field grows early this afternoon.
Several of the high res convective allowing models along with the ECMWF model suggest our best chance for organized covection will be tomorrow night as a cluster of storms develops to the north and propagates south- southeast across the forecast area.
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front, will drop southward through the region this evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending by later tonight.
This ridge is responsible for gentle mostly east breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the overnight period due to the ridge to our north. A ridge extending from the Atlantic into the southeastern United States and Florida will maintain gentle east to southeast breezes across Florida Keys waters.
Upper ridge will build over the area on Wednesday with a slightly drier weather pattern expected. Low to mid level ridge centered over the SE CONUS is progged to build WWD with time, while an upper level ridge over NRN MX expands and builds EWD. The forecast grids followed suit, with already low rain chances decreasing further from the previous forecast and high temperatures nudging a bit warmer. The ridge aloft is progged erode as a trof digs into the Central Gulf Coast late in the week and into the weekend, with models advertising a weak front limping in the area late MON into TUE. Decreasing rain chances are expected the rest of the week and through the weekend as high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
Weak ridging continues to prevail over the area this afternoon and expect these conditions to continue through tonight into Wednesday. Expect muggy overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Little will change on Wednesday as weak upper ridging continues along with PWATS around 1.
607 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Ridging over the area continuing to break down ahead of trough currently centered north of the four corners region.
An upper trough and low level onshore flow will maintain mostly cloudy skies through Wednesday.
An upper low over Montana this afternoon will lift northeastward across the northern Plains tonight into Wednesday. The trailing end of the upper trough axis will move eastward across Kansas tonight into Wednesday morning. Weakening inhibition, combined with lift from the approaching upper trough and dryline convergence, should allow fairly isolated storms to develop near the western fringes of the forecast area by early this evening. As the upper low lifts into Canada on Wednesday, the trailing frontal boundary is progged to stretch from northeast Kansas to south-central Kansas, to northwest Oklahoma.
Mid and upper level ridging over the region will keep dry weather for the remainder of the night. A 588mb 500mb ridge over the southeast U.
937 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure expected to extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore into the Atlantic.
The large scale trough/closed upper low that has been over the West will lift northeast into Canada the next couple days. Though some model spread exists, the westerlies are likely to slowly amplify with a ridge in the West and a trough in the East by the end of the period. Warm front is expected to push north as well. The Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook has the area in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves into the area.
Beyond tonight, a upper level ridge slowly builds into the area, keeping rain chances down and allowing temperatures to rise.
Temperatures are slow to decline from the warm day and thus, majority of model guidance hints at overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than initially forecasted. The greater chances for rain appear to be over northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas the next few days as they are further away from the influence of the upper level ridge over the southwest US. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend as the upper level ridge strengthens over the four state region.
537 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Early afternoon GOES-16 water vapor loop showed a strong upper low centered over south central MT. With 700/850mb CAG-CPR gradients of 55-60m through 03Z, the High Wind Warning will remain in effect until 8 PM.
/Issued 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ The ridge aloft continues over the forecast area with a weak short wave stalled over the northern Gulf. The most likely areas of convection remain the higher elevations and central zones.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 71 89 / 20 40 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 69 88 / 30 40 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 89 / 30 50 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 66 86 / 40 60 30 60.
A vertically stacked area of low pressure will be near southeast Saskatchewan or southwest Manitoba by Wednesday morning. It will be a tad cooler near Lake Superior. There will be increasing instability into the afternoon as the low lifts north through Manitoba and its occluded/cold front moves into the western forecast area.
Northwest winds will continue to diminish as a ridge begins to build in over the region bringing summer- like weather with it for the rest of the week.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather through the period. the 500mb ridge across north central Mexico is providing subsidence across western portions of the state. Northeast flow aloft across the Gulf of Mexico will bring some moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the lower TX coast through Wed night.
Upper level ridge remains in place over our area through Wednesday, with the most favored area for thunderstorms remaining over eastern areas.
The time frame to see the highest chances of rain will come Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
Gusty westerly winds expected in moderately tight pressure gradient on the south side of the low.
1233 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 A cold front moved south of Long Island early this Wednesday morning. High pressure will build into the area Wednesday.
The greater chances for rain appear to be over northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas the next few days as they are further away from the influence of the upper level ridge over the southwest US. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend as the upper level ridge strengthens over the four state region.
Hot and dry continues with a brief respite over western New Mexico today and tonight where lows could dip to freezing in a few spots.
Much like the previous few nights, we will see a few hours of clear skies before the anvil cirrus increases ahead of the low level stratus. After highs today in the low to mid 90s, temperatures will fall into the 70s area wide by daybreak Wednesday. An upper level ridge positioned over northern Mexico will dominate the weather across North and Central Texas for the next couple of days.
Fog is possible in the valleys of the West-Central and Boise mountains once the low clouds clear out. Mostly sunny Wednesday and 7 to 10 degrees warmer than today under zonal flow aloft.
714 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A warm and muggy air mass will be replaced as a cold front crosses the region this evening. Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will move in for the mid week period.
Upper level ridging centered over northern Mexico will begin to expand across Texas and weak capping begins to develop near 850 mb. Coverage should be a bit less as subsidence increases from the building ridge.
1011 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front will pass offshore overnight. High pressure will build into the area on Wednesday.
Have concerns on how much coverage there will be as an upper ridge builds in from the west, but with precipitable water values in near 1. 8 inches and convective temperatures in the lower 80s a few SHRA will be possible near Houston IAH, Conroe, and Huntsville.
826 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure expected to extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore into the Atlantic.
Dry, chilly weather is expected tonight with high pressure in control. Offshore high pressure will weaken tonight into Wednesday.
A low amplitude ridge is building into the Great Basin this evening with a drying westerly flow over UT. Expect skies to clear and winds to become light overnight as the flat ridge gradually strengthens with a sunny warmer day on tap for tomorrow. The ridge flattens Thu with some high clouds crossing the north but some additional warming is forecast.
Highs will rise into the lower 80s for most locations. Flat mid level flow across the region should gradually transition to a western conus ridge and eastern conus trof by the end of the period.
This convection is not expected to persist through the night, so have kept the lower PoPs the same across the area after 06Z.
609 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Aviation Section Updated An upper level low will pull northward and exit the region tonight.
813 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Upper low centered over central Montana. A cold front has driven through eastern zones. Upper low continues to evolve slowly and is near Lewistown as of 3 pm. There is also a cold front associated with this energy. This activity will persist into the evening then gradually taper off thru the night as the low moves slowly to the northeast.