Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Going with highs a few degrees warmer than the NBM for most of our area today, and the NBM has been a little too cool with our highs during the past couple of days.
337 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 Main forecast challenges this morning and again tonight will be widespread dense freezing fog. Lows in the lower 20s tonight, and then in the upper 30s to lower 40s Monday with the northwest surface flow.
These winds will be especially strong and possibly damaging along the Rocky Mountain Front and over much of the lower elevations of north central and central Montana.
High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather through Monday.
528 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 (Today and tonight) Dense freezing fog over southeast Kansas has been showing minimal expansion to the west and southwest over the past hour or two. we are retaining the mention of freezing fog over much of north-central and central Oklahoma for now. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday.
339 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 (Issued 339 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021) Today and Tonight: Weak low pressure tracking across northeast IL overnight is enhancing the low clouds over southern WI. Thus we are seeing reports of freezing drizzle and flurries across southern WI. The low-level temperature profile is right hovering on that line of ice crystals vs. However, high pressure and subsidence will keep the low level moisture locked in place under a strong inversion through tonight, so it's quite possible that we will see another round of dense freezing fog develop this evening.
These waves and minor shots of cooler air have inhibited temperatures from warming much so expect similar highs as yesterday. A ridge will build in on Monday causing southwesterly flow and warm advection so highs increase, but with the inversions in place had to go lower than some of the guidance. This places cold front passage more around mid day as opposed to the afternoon.
537 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over southeastern Missouri with a trough extending south toward New Orleans. High pressure was anchored over the western Caribbean with ridging extending north to Bermuda. A weak upper level trough will slide across North Dakota tonight, forcing a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area. On Monday, winds will shift back to the west as weak high pressure builds into eastern Colorado. Warmer H85 air will be forced into the forecast area by afternoon.
The highest wind speeds will be in East Texas, where a few gusts near or over 20 kts will be possible, but sustained speeds should remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Surface winds will veer to the west and northwest behind the trough. However, despite some increased high-level clouds are expected with the trough tonight, but the cloud cover should be relatively thin and the northwest winds behind the front should provide just enough cold air advection to allow overnight lows tonight/Monday morning to still fall below freezing north of Interstate 30.
Total snowfall of a half inch to around 2" is expected with the highest amounts east and southeast of Princeton.
Cold night on tap for the area with lows generally in the low 30s with some mid to upper 20s in the north.
906 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Cold front is in place across the Tampa Bay area this morning, with patchy sea fog over the coastal waters and along the coast ahead of and along the boundary. The front along with the pseudo-line of showers along it will continue to push south through the area through the day today, with some gradual clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in and brings some cooler and drier air. High pressure builds into the area for Monday through much of the week with no other headlines currently expected.
358 AM MST Sun Jan 3 2021 09z surface analysis had trough east of the CWA with lee trough developing from central MT into central WY. Water vapour had ridge pushing from the Rockies into the northern Plains in wake of disturbance sinking into the central/southern Plains. Today/tonight, Pacific northwest upper trough races across the US/Canadian border. Monday, upper ridge builds back into the northern plains ahead of yet another upper trough moving from the west coast into the Rockies.
Due to the localized nature of the lowest vbsys, wl highlight the impacts in the HWO.
714 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A cold front will move through the area this morning. High pressure will then prevail through the middle of the week.
429 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A mid level low pressure system over the region this morning will move off to the northeast through the day. High pressure will build in tonight and then move off to the east on Monday. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday night followed by another high pressure system. Upper low over western Indiana will move northeast, tracking across the forecast area this morning. Cannot completely rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle in some locations as temperatures cool ever so slightly later in the night.
Snow levels will confine hazards from snow above 4000 feet, for the rest of our area winds will be the issue especially as a cold front passes through mid to late morning. The difference this time around is valleys will be a couple degrees cooler and lighter winds may allow some light valley accumulations in northwest and southwest Montana.
645 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A mid level low pressure system over the region this morning will move off to the northeast through the day. High pressure will build in tonight and then move off to the east on Monday. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday night followed by another high pressure system. Upper low center along the Indiana-Ohio border will move northeast, tracking across the forecast area this morning. Cannot completely rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle in some locations as temperatures cool ever so slightly later in the night.
556 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 Dense fog has expanded westward early this morning due to favorable radiation cooling over recent snow covered grounds, and evaporation effects from daytime snow melting yesterday moistening the low levels. If the low clouds linger we could see another round of fog develop again early tonight over southeast Kansas, and try to spread west overnight since low-level airmass would remain virtually unchanged.
Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower to middle 60s for portions of the area, with lower to middle 50s for those locations that have maintained snowcover from last week's snowstorm. Quite a bit more melting is expected today, though overnight tonight, with lows expected to drop to near and just below freezing for portions of the area, black ice will continue to be a concern, and may impact the Monday morning commute. A weak trough progressing across the Central Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley today into tonight will send a cold front through the region early Monday, though aside from a brief northerly to northeasterly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures, the front will pass with little fanfare.
08Z water vapor showed a couple mid level low pressure systems over the central plains and OH river valley slowly moving east with fast mid level flow moving over the west coast. At the surface, ridging was centered over the Gulf coast and lower MS river valley with general troughing from the southern high plains through the northern plains. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the lower and middle 20s.
Main forecast challenges this morning and again tonight will be widespread dense freezing fog. Lows in the lower 20s tonight, and then in the upper 30s to lower 40s Monday with the northwest surface flow.
(Today and tonight) Dense freezing fog over southeast Kansas has been showing minimal expansion to the west and southwest over the past hour or two. we are retaining the mention of freezing fog over much of north-central and central Oklahoma for now. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday.
445 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 09z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving off to the northeast taking the deeper moisture along with it and out of eastern Kentucky. They all depict a couple of compact 5h lows moving through Kentucky during the next 48 hours as part of a larger trough. With falling temperatures tonight some of the higher elevations could see a touch of freezing drizzle. As for PoPs, did keep them higher than the NBM this afternoon into the first part of Monday morning in order to better capture the drizzle and freezing drizzle potential. A vorticity maxima will drop southeast across the Ohio river valley Monday night with the mid level trough strengthening with time.
Low temperatures fall into the low 20s to around 30. an upper level ridge axis approaches the area during the day then over the area during the night ahead of a progressive upper trough. Low temperatures remain in the low 20s to near 30.
332 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over southeastern Missouri with a trough extending south toward New Orleans. High pressure was anchored over the western Caribbean with ridging extending north to Bermuda. A weak upper level trough will slide across North Dakota tonight, forcing a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area. On Monday, winds will shift back to the west as weak high pressure builds into eastern Colorado. Warmer H85 air will be forced into the forecast area by afternoon.
253 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 The cold front is pushing across the southern zones this afternoon, with just a small area of light showers remaining along the boundary. High pressure builds into the area and will remain in place over the region as the center gradually shifts east through the week.
(This evening through Monday) Visible satellite early this afternoon showed sunny skies across the region, while water vapor satellite showed an upper level trough moving across eastern OK/eastern KS. This stronger thermal ridge and warm downsloping west surface winds were resulting in 12 pm temperatures which were 5-8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Expect highs this afternoon mainly in the low to mid 60s. With weaker winds overnight and mostly clear skies, expect enhanced radiational cooling area-wide, resulting in cooler lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. A weak and dry cold front will move through the region Monday morning through the afternoon hours.
That said, am seeing a few locations over the Plateau reporting light snow flurries given surface temperatures in the low/mid 30s. Otherwise, all light rain outside of the higher peaks/ridgetops (gte 3500ft) across southwest VA and East TN where flurries could also occur. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 55 38 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 51 37 49 30 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 51 36 49 28 / 10 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 46 34 45 28 / 10 10 20 10 0.
Expect slightly warmer temperatures today, climbing into the lower 60s. High clouds streaming across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas, due to an upper-trough, will exit the region later today with mostly sunny skies prevailing otherwise. The highest wind speeds will be in East Texas, where a few gusts near or over 20 kts will be possible, but sustained speeds should remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Surface winds will veer to the west and northwest behind the trough. However, despite some increased high-level clouds are expected with the trough tonight, but the cloud cover should be relatively thin and the northwest winds behind the front should provide just enough cold air advection to allow overnight lows tonight/Monday morning to still fall below freezing north of Interstate 30.
250 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 (Issued 250 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Freezing fog looks possible again tonight, and it will be dense in spots. Models seem to like the potential for fog tonight though, and with the widespread freezing fog potential no matter the visibility, a dense fog advisory will be put out tonight. Tomorrow, fog will linger along with low stratus ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front comes through Monday afternoon and evening, very light snow will be possible.
1132 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 Dense fog has expanded westward early this morning due to favorable radiation cooling over recent snow covered grounds, and evaporation effects from daytime snow melting yesterday moistening the low levels. If the low clouds linger we could see another round of fog develop again early tonight over southeast Kansas, and try to spread west overnight since low-level airmass would remain virtually unchanged.
High pressure is moving across Louisiana this afternoon and is roughly centered near the Baton Rouge area.
320 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Low pressure will move northeast from the Mid Atlantic coastline tonight and Monday.
This low level moisture along with clear skies and light winds will lead to fog development mainly across MFE and HRL for a few hours around sunrise. /issued 344 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): While high pressure persists at the surface, a weak 500 mb trough will traverse the BRO CWFA from west to east during the period. Despite the passage of the trough, dry weather will prevail for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
358 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight.
the low level moisture is shallower than last night per Bufkit soundings. With stratus layer east of the Mississippi river, this area may have the higher chances for more widespread dense fog development.
This will persist throughout the day as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures are at or near freezing, so this could enhance frost formation on elevated surfaces early this morning. As the high departs to our east tonight, calmer winds in the east should allow for better radiational cooling, with light southerly winds over northeast LA and the ArkLaMiss Delta region keeping temperatures there a few degrees warmer. /NF/ The upper wave moving out of the Rockies this morning will generally dig out a trough over the eastern half of the country, resulting in somewhat northwesterly flow aloft over the region. Any precip is shunted off to the north and east with the waves as high pressure builds into the region.
A few scattered high clouds will continue this afternoon in association with upper low currently moving through southern Kansas.
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over southeastern Missouri with a trough extending south toward New Orleans. High pressure was anchored over the western Caribbean with ridging extending north to Bermuda. A weak upper level trough will slide across North Dakota tonight, forcing a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area. On Monday, winds will shift back to the west as weak high pressure builds into eastern Colorado. Warmer H85 air will be forced into the forecast area by afternoon.
High pressure along with dry air aloft moving into southeast Michigan will help strengthen a low level inversion into tonight. Temperatures overnight will dip into the mid-upper 20s for much of the area, which brings potential for some patchy freezing fog during the early morning hours as well. Confidence in patchy fog/patchy freezing fog development remains low.
154 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will build over the region today and Monday.
236 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty winds associated with a cold frontal passage mainly this evening, along with slight chances for some light precipitation. Mid level wave will advance east across the Northern Plains tonight, dragging a cold front through western and central ND this evening, and eastern ND overnight. High pressure builds into the region from west to east overnight through Monday morning, clearing the sky and resulting in diminishing winds. Cooler for Monday but still mild with highs from the 30s north and east to the mid 40s southwest.
1243 PM MST Sun Jan 3 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a trough axis across western MT into central ID. This trough will push across the forecast area this evening. Will keep the high wind warning for Natrona County ongoing through 5 PM as winds still remain near high wind. A transitory ridge is expected tonight into Monday morning, but still expect very light snow/flurries mainly in the far western mountains. At the same time a trough will push into the West Coast.
/issued 906 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021/ Cold front is in place across the Tampa Bay area this morning, with patchy sea fog over the coastal waters and along the coast ahead of and along the boundary. The front along with the pseudo-line of showers along it will continue to push south through the area through the day today, with some gradual clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in and brings some cooler and drier air. High pressure builds into the area for Monday through much of the week with no other headlines currently expected.
At the surface, high pressure continues to advect/expand eastward from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southern Appalchians fostering wly flow into East TN and southwest VA/NC.
The cold front is located on the northwestern edge of Lake and Volusia county as of 930AM. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s across the north, with upper 40 to low 50s across the south except along the Treasure Coast where lows will reach upper 50s to low 60s. MVFR CIGs with embedded IFR CIGs today in some of the convection associated with a cold front that is currently located in the NW portion of Lake and Volusia counties.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures overnight to range from the lower 30s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 40s across north Louisiana. High temperatures on Monday to climb into the lower 60s.
1031 AM MST Sun Jan 3 2021 09z surface analysis had trough east of the CWA with lee trough developing from central MT into central WY. Water vapour had ridge pushing from the Rockies into the northern Plains in wake of disturbance sinking into the central/southern Plains. Today/tonight, Pacific northwest upper trough races across the US/Canadian border. Monday, upper ridge builds back into the northern plains ahead of yet another upper trough moving from the west coast into the Rockies.
240 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 The extent of fog and potential impact of freezing fog is the short term forecast challenge. An additional concern will be temperatures dropping below freezing toward morning resulting in the potential for some slick roads during the morning commute. The split upper flow will merge to form an upper level ridge forming over the Rockies on Monday. Locally this will result in south winds ushering in a return of warmer air.
Not only affecting the visibility, but also overnight lows that hit 0 or in the lower single digits at several sites. This morning's sfc weather map shows the ridge of high pressure now over eastern Iowa at 15z, while a warm front is currently edging into the eastern counties of Nebraska. Temperatures have warmed to above freezing over the west and southwest this afternoon and with melting, dewpoints have climbed into the mid 20s to the lower 30s in those areas. The front is expected to pass through with little moisture, but may be able to squeeze out a few light sprinkles/mist northeast in the form of freezing precipitation with no impacts expected.
940 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 Cooler/drier air is gradually spreading into the cntrl TN Valley from the WNW this Sun morning, with cloud cover diminishing across parts of NW/north cntrl AL. Temps have also been slow to rebound from their earlier morning lows mainly in the upper 30s, given the influx of cooler air, with current trends still in the upper 30s/near 40F. However, there is another upper level low that will move through the Tennessee River Valley tonight. With temperatures down near freezing for lows, patchy freezing fog will be possible as well. The dry airmass will remain in place but the broad trough aloft will lead to the possibility of passing mid to high clouds. High pressure builds into the region from the west Monday night with lows down into the low to mid 30s.
Snow falling through this layer will melt/sublimate, but wet bulb effects will still result in temperatures above freezing, and thus precipitation reaching the surface looks to be mostly sprinkles/light rain. Farther east, where temperatures are mainly in the 20s to just above freezing, and the ground is still cold, will also see some cooling this evening. Thus, as precipitation moves in, its more likely going to be in the form of freezing sprinkles/freezing rain.
257 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Cooler air moves into the Carolinas tonight through mid week.
An upper trough brought valley rain and mountain snow to the area overnight, with the main area of precipitation starting to push through the forecast area this morning. After a brief break in precipitation later today, another trough will spread valley rain and mountain snow back into the area tonight through Monday. Snow levels will rise on Monday to 5000-6000 feet MSL limiting significant snow impacts to the higher mountains, but will take a closer look this afternoon at any potential for an advisory in the mountains.
The cold front will progress east late this afternoon and evening, creating a northwest wind shift behind the front. Temperatures should tumble this evening--particularly for those behind the weak cold front--due to efficient radiational cooling. A light north wind will prevail tomorrow as a high pressure center begins to settle into the region. /Issued 257 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021/ /Monday Onward/ Weak upper level ridging will be taking shape across the Southern Plains as we begin a new work week.
Looking at LAPS soundings, the lowest 1000 ft are above freezing with sfc wet bulb temperatures around 35 or 36 degrees. Look for a MVFR deck to return Monday morning 12-15Z as an upper low swings overhead.
High pressure will center over the top of us overnight tonight, and we can expect good radiational cooling conditions. As we've seen already this winter, we'll have a good chance of fog developing along the major rivers and lakes due to the warmer water temps. We can't rule out some patchy freezing fog where temps fall below freezing tonight, and have added that into the forecast.
1241 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Aviation - Light snow leads to localized travel impacts this AM - Patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle at times the next few days - Light snow leads to localized travel impacts this AM At 300 am. The high res models show this area of light snow to spread into the I-94 corridor over the next couple of hours. - Patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle at times the next few days The DGZ remains largely unsaturated through the next couple of days. In addition the low levels remain moist and temperatures will hover around freezing. Already we have seen some freezing drizzle very early this morning. With temperatures near or below freezing at times. some freezing drizzle could occur. As the southwest flow picks up ahead of an approaching cold front Monday.
Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures gradually rising to the lower 50s. /issued 352 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021/ A small warming trend will be underway today as temperatures rebound into the 50s as high pressure builds in for the first half of the week.
High pressure builds into the region in the wake of the cold front advecting in cooler, drier air.
Per satellite trends, we have seen some thinning in the low level cloud cover across interior northern Lower Michigan in the last few hours.
High pressure will dominate the pattern across the area for most of the upcoming week. The strength of the low level inversion and rather weak pressure gradient would back up this idea.
The upper level pattern will be quite active this week with a series of troughs and upper lows. Looking at soundings along the plateau, freezing levels will be about 1200-1500 ft AGL with surface temperatures around 35-38 degrees.