Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid-level vorticity maxima trailing the trough which crossed the region last night will continue to shift southeastward into GA this afternoon, with northerly flow aloft in the process of weakening as this occurs. This trend will persist tonight as an amplified 500-mb ridge axis spreads slowly eastward from the southern Plains into the lower MS valley. At the surface, the center of a Canadian anticyclone continues to build southward, and should settle across the OH valley overnight.
This near a weak surface boundary across Southeast Texas and with a weak upper level disturbance across central Texas moving into the back side of an upper level ridge of high pressure reaching from the Western Gulf of Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Sat night low temps will again drop off into the upper 30s/lower 40s but more locations should be in the lower 40s for lows.
906 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Cold front was moving into Marion County early this evening. Cooler air will push into the region overnight, with lows near 50 to the lower 50s across southeast Georgia, the mid 50 to near 60 across interior northeast Florida, and the 60s for coastal northeast Florida. A few showers are possible near the NE FL TAF sites through the evening as the cold front moves through.
530 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Weather impacts over the next few days will be minimal as a weakening upper low rides up from the southwest.
A low pressure system over southern Arizona will lift northeast to the Four Corners region tonight and into western Colorado tomorrow.
/issued 332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ At 3PM, temperatures are over-performing guidance once again, even under moderate cold air advection, with readings in the lower to mid 70s areawide.
A high pressure area over the Ohio River Valley was spreading a dry, cool air mass across Middle Tennessee this evening. Lows in the lower to middle 40s still look good for sunrise temps on Saturday.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Quiet night tonight into Saturday with high pressure dominating the region. With 805mb temps around +10C to +11C, and 925mb temps around +15C and the southwesterly flow, should have no issues warming to temps Saturday similar to today and likely even a bit warmer.
At the surface, high pressure extends across the Midwest into the southern High Plains. Aloft, a cut-off upper level low is positioned over southern Arizona, slowly drifting northeast. The upper low that is expected to bring showers to the region continues to trend slower within model consensus.
Cloud cover to also remain in place through much of the night with low temperatures forecast to range from the upper 40s in southwest Arkansas to the lower 60s across Deep East Texas. A broad upper trough to dive south across the four corners region through the early part of the work week before deepening into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek. Instability associated with this upper-level trough will maintain cloudy skies and increased rain chances through much of the work week.
For the evening forecast update With the passing of a cold front earlier today, colder conditions will be expected tonight.
This is in response to a weak mid-upper level trof or vort max swinging down to the coast.
The next low pressure system may bring some showers to eastern areas around mid week. A weakening low pressure system aloft was centered over northeast AZ this evening. The upper low will continue to fill while drifting toward the Four Corners region tonight, then will become an open-wave system with the mid-level trough axis Saturday afternoon extending from western Colorado southward into far southeast AZ. High temps Saturday will be nearly identical to temps achieved this afternoon across eastern sections, but will be a few degs warmer from Tucson westward into western Pima County and south-central Pinal County.
A bit more mixing tomorrow and with thermal ridge axis shifting over the forecast area and full solar high temperatures should again reach into the 60s most areas. Saturday night through Friday will see minimal weather impacts across the Northern Plains as 500mb ridging dominates the pattern for the central CONUS.
923 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Clear and cool overnight under dry high pressure, with temperatures a blend of model guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows ridging over the Plains with a closed upper low spinning over the desert southwest. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains with some weak lee troughing over western Nebraska/northeast CO. Focus of the first few days of the forecast will revolve around the upper low spinning over the desert sw. Some showers and storms may linger over central/eastern KS Mon night into Tue morning but by Tue afternoon should be south of the forecast area, closer to the closed off upper low over the sw conus. While temps look to be cooler than they have been the last several days, they are still expected to be close to or even a few degrees above seasonal averages for the Tue-Fri time frame.
Dry and mild conditions were in place today with a mid-level ridge stretched across the central U. With light southerly winds from this surface pattern, afternoon temperatures will reach into the low/mid 70s. With light southerly winds and some cirrus clouds persisting through the day on Saturday, expect another day of unseasonably warm conditions with temperatures reaching into the low/mid 70s.
more patchy with the higher probs of locally dense centered over points south and west of the city.
948 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the region on Saturday.
A large upper level low over the Four Corners States will keep ejecting impulses out over Texas. /issued 242 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): H5 trough is beginning to open up into the central plains, with a large area of diffluence out ahead of it, noted by the large swath of clouds from eastern colorado to the mountains in northern Mexico. The trough will be progressing very slowly the next 24 hours, so upper diffluence remains good enough to continue to allow showers to form.
Upper level low continues to spin across the desert southwest. Some high clouds are streaming north ahead of the low and have pushed into southwestern/central Neb this afternoon. The ridging ahead of the low has allowed temps to surge into the 70s across the region. The ridge remains nearly stationary as the low only drifts slightly northeast over the next 24 hours. A slow moving upper level low currently resides over southeast Arizona, beneath a broad upper ridge across much of the Conus.
/issued 201 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Upper low over AZ today will slowly lift NE and open up as it moves across the 4 Corners region tonight and Saturday. As it moves east it will displace the upper ridge southward.
849 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Except for some patchy high clouds currently between Great Falls and Lewistown, skies are mostly clear across central and southwest MT as high pressure ridging persists over our region. Expect those clouds to drift east later tonight and only location that may see some high cloud cover heading into Sat morning are portions of the Hiline as patchy moisture works its way up the west side of the ridge and spills into southern Alberta. VFR conditions expected tonight and on Saturday as broad high pressure ridge remains in place across the Northern Plains states.
1016 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week. cold and dry high pressure is building into the area in the wake of a strong cold front. Clear skies, dry weather and seasonal temperatures expected to persist through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west.
922 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A high pressure area over the Ohio River Valley was spreading a dry, cool air mass across Middle Tennessee this evening. Lows in the lower to middle 40s still look good for sunrise temps on Saturday. High pressure is building in from the north this evening with clear skies across Middle Tennessee.
934 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A weak cold front passing through northern NY may cause a few sprinkles or light rain showers overnight.
The high pressure system that dominated our area with mostly clear skies and above normal temps will slowly slip east and allow a storm system to move into our region tomorrow.
/issued 907 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. /issued 332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ At 3PM, temperatures are over-performing guidance once again, even under moderate cold air advection, with readings in the lower to mid 70s areawide.
/issued 422 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Tonight and Saturday, Latest satellite imagery showed mid to upper ridging building across the region from the west as the cold front swings through southern Mississippi. The upper trough associated with the front was moving over the eastern seaboard. As far as temps are concerned lows will dip into the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
High pressure will persist through at least the weekend, so dry conditions are expected. Large upper level ridge now dominating the midsection of the CONUS and providing for warm and dry conditions across the district. While the ridge pattern will shift eastward in the next 24 to 48 hours, Central California will see one more day of warming on Saturday before cooler air filters into the area. The dominate ridge pattern will be counteracted by warming and drying at the surface.
Pesky upper low that has affected Arizona the past few days is making slow progress northeastward today.
Surface ridging along with low dewpoints will result in chilly overnight temps.
618 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure over the Illinois River Valley will drift slowly southeast through Saturday.
936 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight. Dry and much cooler high pressure will build from the north overnight. Strong cold air advection to the region will help promote mixing in the low-lvls and prevent winds from decoupling overnight. Deep layered high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
748 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A weak cold front passing through northern NY may cause a few sprinkles or light rain showers overnight.
A strong low pressure system was just off the coast for big changes for southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through Saturday night. A slow moving, strong, and moist cold front was just off the coast this evening and will slowly move onshore later tonight and Saturday.
/Issued 305 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ A cold front, now well to the south of the area, will continue to usher in dry and cool air across the area. With high pressure building in from the north and east, anticipate northeasterly flow through the short term with CAA helping to keep temperatures in the low 70s for Saturday. Overall pattern to start the period will feature fairly extensive ridge across the US in the mid/upper levels. with embedded trough around 4 corners region. while sfc pattern features expansive area of high pressure east of Rockies. ENsemble data indicates closed low forming over the Southern Rockies or Southern Plains. This would allow minor perturbations associated with main closed low to tap into Gulf moisture enroute towards our local area.
Despite optimal conditions to cool, temperatures will mild tonight as a thermal ridge at 850mb of 5-8 deg c hovers overhead and holds temps in the low/mid 40s. Saturday will be another spectacular day, as high pressure remains in control and keeps winds light from the west/northwest around 10mph in the afternoon.
The main upper level low remains west of the area in southeastern AZ, but is starting to make some progress to the northeast.
907 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. /issued 332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ At 3PM, temperatures are over-performing guidance once again, even under moderate cold air advection, with readings in the lower to mid 70s areawide.
1053 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. A cold front will pass through Saturday night.
1048 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A broad ridge of high pressure remains across the area, bringing dry and warm conditions over the next 24 hours. Given this southerly wind flow, temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mids 40s. Saturday looks dry, and pleasant with high temperatures in the lower 70s east of the James River Valley to near 80 west. closed low will be starting to shear northeast across the central Rockies by Saturday night.
1212 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures through the weekend.
728 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Cool high pressure will build/extend into the Carolinas from the north and west through the weekend.
For today, an upper level low will continue to bring good chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and eastern Arizona.
As the short wave exits, brief ridging will take place and am expecting this to lead to a decrease in precip for part of the day on Saturday.
A small to moderate ridge and valley T split has developed and will likely continue through the night. 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into eastern Kentucky from the northwest. Currently, temperatures are rather uniform throughout this part of Kentucky with readings in the low to middle 50s. Do expect the valleys to fall a bit more than the ridges for a small split developing late in the night as the winds go calm. High pressure throughout the column will be the rule through the short term. Given that wet bulb temperatures are well above freezing for most locations, think that any patchy frost will be isolated tonight. Dew points mixing down into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon hours will set the stage for another seasonably cool night.
1151 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over our region though Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
810 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into eastern Kentucky from the northwest. Currently, temperatures are rather uniform throughout this part of Kentucky with readings in the low to middle 50s. Do expect the valleys to fall a bit more than the ridges for a small split developing late in the night as the winds go calm. High pressure throughout the column will be the rule through the short term. Given that wet bulb temperatures are well above freezing for most locations, think that any patchy frost will be isolated tonight. Dew points mixing down into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon hours will set the stage for another seasonably cool night.
1151 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure in firm control of the local weather pattern this afternoon and very little will change this upcoming weekend. Tomorrow will be much like today with highs warming into the lower 70s.
An upper level ridge over the Plains states this morning will gradually weaken and move into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. The upper low that has been spinning over southern Arizona over the past day or so has begun to slowly move to the northeast today per the latest water vapor imagery. By Saturday evening, the upper low is expected to move into the Four Corners region. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the eastern slopes of the Rockies will gradually slide east with weak southerly return flow developing over the High Plains. The aforementioned low pressure system over the southwest will continue northeast toward the central and southern Plains, opening up as it does.
847 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A cold front is in place just to the north of the area with a pre-frontal trough in place across Manatee/Hardee/Highlands counties. A few showers are moving across the Nature Coast and chances will migrate southward between the trough and frontal boundary overnight. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front with high pressure building into the area for the weekend. Temperatures are on track to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower 60s inland to near 70 coastal central and south. NNW winds around 10 knots currently in place across the coastal waters will become NE and increase to around 20 knots behind the front overnight through Saturday for the northern and central waters as high pressure builds into the region.
Northerly surface winds have been gusty at times in the wake of a cold front that has now pushed southward over the Gulf waters. A closed low over the Desert Southwest pushes east, pushing an upper ridge over the Plains eastward a bit. With the approaching upper ridge bringing increasing subsidence (and temps remaining above seasonal as a result), this leads a strong rh gradient across the fcst area Saturday (rh bottoming out in the 20 to 25% east to 30-35% west Saturday). As mentioned above, with the return of subsidence with the approaching upper ridge, temps remain above seasonal.
1144 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Quiet, clear, and cooler weather is still anticipated for tonight as the cP airmass underneath a broad surface anticyclone centered over IN/IL continues to influence the TN Valley.
There is an upper level ridge across the area tonight and Saturday.
Proton Previous Discussion High pressure aloft will make for sunny skies, light winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
Surface observations across the state of Florida indicate a kink in the pressure pattern, highlighting a cold front moving south. Meanwhile, the center of a fresh continental high pressure system has spilled southeast into the Ohio River Valley. The overnight forecast calls for isolated showers and mostly clear skies, with lows in the lower 70s.
1053 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Weather impacts over the next few days will be minimal as a weakening upper low rides up from the southwest.
Drier and cooler air will continue to push into the region, both at the surface and aloft behind this front through the night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0.
1020 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED Except for some patchy high clouds currently between Great Falls and Lewistown, skies are mostly clear across central and southwest MT as high pressure ridging persists over our region. Expect those clouds to drift east later tonight and only location that may see some high cloud cover heading into Sat morning are portions of the Hiline as patchy moisture works its way up the west side of the ridge and spills into southern Alberta. VFR conditions expected tonight and on Saturday as broad high pressure ridge remains in place across the Northern Plains states.
Weak area of high pressure aloft continues and light steering winds aloft is resulting in slow storm motions, generally from north to south across our area. More extensive cloud cover early Thu will tend to stabilize the plains, and with continued ridging aloft, looks like the Plains should stay mainly dry through Thursday.
305 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the Nrn Plains with upper trof over the Pac NW. tight pressure gradient across the Nrn Plains in between lee trof along the Rocky mountain front and ridge over the Midwest.
Moisture limited within upper level ridge over the area, resulting in mostly clear skies through tonight. Although winds will not drop off tonight as they have the past couple, the relatively cool/dry air mass should allow for lows in the lower-mid 50s east to near 60 west.
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2016 High pressure returns today, ushering in a cooler and drier pattern which will remain into the weekend.
Canadian high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Valley region will nose into the Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.
249 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 An upper level trough will pass through the region today, causing isolated showers over NY and PA.
Sensible weather will be cooler and much less humid than previous days with dry northeasterly flow.
159 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 A cold front will push southeast across the commonwealth overnight into early Thursday, bringing a chance of showers.
High pressure over the upper midwest will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the next several Days. The dry and pleasant weather will continue through at least Labor day as the High drifts slowly east of Indiana.
246 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 A large area of high pressure, centered from western Ontario southwest into Nebraska was providing clear and relatively cool conditions across the forecast area early this morning. This may hold temperatures a degree or two below guidance and mix down tool supported highs in the lower to mid 70s north and upper 70s south and southwest. Tonight, the advancing ridge axis with clear skies, light east to northeast surface winds and 850 mb temperatures lowering to near 10 celsius should lead to widespread lows in the 50s. Cannot rule out at least isolated upper 40s in typically cooler valley locations. The plus side to this, we stay drier and slightly cooler longer.
650 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 A cold front nearly bisecting Pennsylvania from northeast to southwest will slide southeast across the remainder of the state this morning.
302 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 A cold front will push southeast across the commonwealth overnight into early Thursday, bringing a chance of showers.
134 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 An upper level trough will pass through the region today, causing isolated showers over NY and PA.
323 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Upper wave/trough axis over Lake Superior yesterday evening sliding through the Central Great Lakes this morning, supporting further cold advection isolated-scattered lake enhanced showers off Lake Huron (returns have already popped up) with brisk north-northeast winds, as 700 mb temps reach at or slightly below zero. Latest guidance supports highs in the lower 70s, with some mid 70s toward Ohio border.
Satellite loops show clear skies overhead as dry air is transported inland on southwest flow ahead of an upper level trough axis extending southward from near the Pac Northwest coast. After Labor Day, the trough is progged, with good general agreement amongst the models, to lift out of the region and allow temperatures to begin a recovery.
Izzi 207 PM CDT Northerly winds today in the wake of this mornings cold frontal passage, have resulted in a transition to a cooler and drier air mass from north to south. As this cooler air mass shifts over the warm Lake Michigan waters, this will likely result in some lake effect cloud cover on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be cooler in the low to mid 70s in most areas. KJB 303 PM CDT The longer term forecast period will start out with a continuation of quiet weather as high pressure slowly spreads to the upper Great Lakes with a ridge axis extending southwest through the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. The quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with temperatures starting out below seasonal normal levels, with lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies. Towards the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending from the great lakes into Colorado will trek slightly northward today shifting northeasterly winds to the southeast by this afternoon.
340 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 The current IR satellite image is showing mid to high level clouds rotating anti-cyclonically into Colorado beneath a ridge of high pressure.
a cold front is located across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with lower 70s dewpoints ahead of the front into North Texas. A few storms could persist into the overnight hours as weak forcing from the upper trough will still be present and the actual cold front will be approaching the Red River.
A weak upper ridge will remain centered just SW of the region today with northerly flow continuing aloft.