Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1123 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Low-amplitude ridging covers the northern tier of states, with an upper trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Early Sunday morning, the associated cold front will cross the region, bringing with it breezy northwesterly winds. Highs Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, but currently expecting 70s across northwestern SD and the Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. Very warm temperatures will return, with 90s expected area-wide (except for the higher elevations).
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an increasingly open flow from the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge axis that was blocking moisture from this body of water has gradually weakened.
243 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The closed upper low that has been a persistent feature over Texas for several days is making slow progress to the northeast and should be mostly over Oklahoma at sunrise Sunday with the center between Tulsa and Joplin at the end of the day tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses should see an increase in high temperatures near 3 degrees warmer over those of this afternoon.
Upper ridging and high pressure at the surface will keep us warm and dry today. As we move into the overnight, some deeper moisture will begin to funnel south to north into our region between the upper ridge over the SE CONUS and a closed upper low over the Red River Valley. The Massie Rose 1000-850 mb technique show high temps are expected to be in the low to mid 80s through the week, with plenty of cloud cover. F5 hit Clyde TX killing 14 VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast period as high pressure and upper level ridging result in dry conditions. High pressure will gradually push eastward through the forecast period, and return flow on the western side of the high will allow for moisture to advect northward into the region.
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. They all depict ridging building over the area briefly tonight ahead of a slow moving large upper low approaching from the southwest.
Cooler and windy conditions today compared to yesterday. Increasing clouds with a cooler regime sett up. Highs will generally be around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and running a few to several degrees below seasonable values, warmest in the Basin.
1215 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The forecast area will be just east of the thermal ridge with another day of record/near breaking warmth expected ahead of a trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest. Highs should be 3 to 6 degrees cooler than yesterday. Diurnal, isolated convection is expected especially over the higher terrain and over the south.
With a slight increase in low level moisture and a decrease in wind speeds as compared to today, conditions will feel noticeably warmer and a bit more humid on Sunday.
The remnants of yesterday's weak cold front remain over northern portions of Johnson County, along the Bighorns and into MT. A trough, located over central ID/western MT, is currently approaching the forecast area. There is the potential for strong storms late this afternoon into the evening across far western portions, from Alpine and Hoback Junction southward, as the trough gets closer, due to the proximity of the supporting jet. Another impact from the unseasonably hot conditions will be the high elevation snow melt. Mountain temperatures at night will remain above freezing in this pattern, which will lead to the existing snow pack to lose 1 to 2 inches of snow water equivalent per day.
Warmer temperatures aloft so far have been limiting shower formation; but this should change in the late afternoon and early evening, as warmer temperatures and steeper lapse rates help more showers and thunderstorms form. An upper low over northern Texas was bringing additional mid and high altitude moisture across the region. The best rain chances will be over our western areas, closer to the upper low and deeper moisture. The upper low to our west should slowly move northward, being situated over Oklahoma on Sunday. The higher rain chances will be west of the Interstate 65 corridor.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): The 500 mb low pressure centered near the TX/OK border will continue to slowly move off to the northeast through the short term. With the low lifting, drier air will filter into deep south Texas with the best chance for any lingering precipitation through early this evening.
Concern for the afternoon remains the progression of cold front and lack of motion of storms ahead of the boundary. As in recent radar loops, storm motion has been minimal increasing potential for very localized ponding or flooding that will warrant monitoring until upper level flow steers storms and provides motion into the high plains. Ridge expected to break down with the frontal boundary on our doorstep late tonight with some areas being behind the front by 6 AM Sunday especially our northern forecast area. Daytime highs will be a touch cooler behind the front but still trending above- normal for time of year.
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 An upper level low was over the Red River valley per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, low pressure was gradually deepening along the lee of the central rockies with high pressure in the lower MS river valley.
It will be dry today even though we will see a cold front move through.
238 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Upper low spinning over TX will play a big role in our weather the next bunch of days.
843 AM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Weakening high pressure over the Southwest will bring cooling through Sunday, while Onshore flow maintains a marine layer and associated clouds west of the mountains and gusty westerly winds through and below the passes.
Thunderstorms are likely to form over the higher terrain but a lack of shear and instablilty will hamper severe weather.
The center of an H5 ridge has migrated almost directly over Phoenix early this afternoon becoming wedged between two quasi-cutoff low pressure systems over central TX and west of the Los Angeles basin. Meanwhile, a more progressive northern stream wave and strong jet streak punching into the Pacific NW was aiding in eroding and displacing the aforementioned H5 ridge southward. Meanwhile, full latitudinal troughing and strong negative PV anomalies will become established over the East Pacific helping further amplify the overall Conus pattern.
144 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The ridge axis is expected to move across the Northern Plains today as an upper level trough moves slowly across the Pacific NW. The closed low over the Southern Plains is expected to become more neutrally-tilted throughout the day, allowing more Gulf moisture to advect into the area. Sunday, the upper level trough will begin to push across the Northern Plains while the closed low finally begins to push to the north-northeast towards the Central Plains. Combined with the lee trough along the Front Range, there may be enough instability during the afternoon and evening for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop.
244 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny with a trough of low pressure sitting along the CO/KS/NE border. Looking at the latest RAP40 500 mb analysis with mid level water vapor does show remnants of the an upper ridge receding west as a cutoff upper low makes a slow trek northward from the southern Plains.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across our area due to solar heating and forcing by an upper level low over Central Texas.
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Cloud cover was increasing from the south this afternoon as moisture continues to stream northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system near the Arklatex. While there are no decent surface boundaries to focus precipitation, we expect to see an uptick in showers on Sunday as the upper low continues to drift northward into Oklahoma.
An upper ridge axis which extends from Georgia/South Carolina to Illinois/Indiana changes position somewhat in response to the subtle movement of the upper low, with the axis shifting to South Carolina/North Carolina to the Great Lakes. This pattern maintains a rather moist deep layer southerly flow over the forecast area through the period, although there will be a modest impact over the eastern portion of the area associated with the upper ridge this afternoon which lessens for Sunday. 2 inches (with the lower values over the northeastern portion due to modest subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge), then for Sunday values mainly range from 2.
/issued 246 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ Upper level pattern has changed very little today as the low lifts to the northeast very slowly. This will lead to a pretty similar day to yesterday with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80's. Similar to yesterday precipitation that develops along the higher terrain of New Mexico will stay across New Mexico as northerly flow aloft will prevent this activity from moving into West Texas. /WCI The low over central Texas is progged to take a slightly westward track into Sunday morning making its way over the metroplex as opposed to the ArkLaTex as observed yesterday.
After a brief reprieve into the 80s for some, highs then quickly rebound into the lower/mid 90s to start the workweek. The broad upper ridge stays put over the eastern Conus while a low level jet develops over the High Plains. Southerly surface winds will also stay relatively breezy as the low level jet mixes down. As far as the cap goes, H5-7 temps are anomalously high over the northern Plains with the strong ridge in place. Should any storm develop, it will likely hold off until after maximum diurnal heating when the low level jet adds a bit of lift. Surface dew points in the lower 60s over central Nebraska help keep PWATs seasonably high. Through the workweek, an upper trough digs down the Pacific Coast, which amplifies the ridge over the Plains and Midwest.
-More humid Mon-Wed with scattered showers and storms The upper low lifting north from Texas helps deliver a more humid air mass to lwr MI for Mon through Wed.
An upper low over NE Texas was producing a diffluent upper flow over the SE states. An enlongated maxima of moisture extending from the OK/AR region to the western FL panhandle was heading to the NNE in a prevailing upper low.
241 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A closed low system anchored across NE Texas has been tracking very slowly. Though pesky showers have been limited to the west and south today, rain will become more widespread this evening into overnight hours as the closed low begins to lift some across parts of SE Louisiana. /JNE/ Tomorrow night through Saturday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a cutoff low meandering over the ArkLaTex while northern stream jet energy carves out a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
223 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Satellite imagery and upper latest mesoanalysis show main upper level trof over the PacNW with a 120 knot H3 jet nosing into western OR. Latest models show the western activity being the focus as it spreads across our north in advance of upstream trof. However, greatest synoptic scale forcing w/ upper trof arrives later tonight and feel that some shower activity will impact our west and central cwa overnight into perhaps very early Sunday morning. As the wave lifts to the northeast, cooler/drier and more stable Pacific air will bring us quiet weather tomorrow. W-NW winds will be a bit breezy in our east (beginning tonight behind the cold front) while winds turn easterly in our west. Look for dry conditions to prevail thru Sunday night as next upstream trof digs along the Pacific coast.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level low over central Texas will keep hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over much of the area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures with overnight lows in the mid 60s and highs Sunday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight tonight through Sunday morning, the actual cold front will bring some noticeable relief to the region in the form of cooler air from the west. The associated winds along and behind the cold front will be strong and gusty enough to warrant a Lake Wind Advisory during the morning and mid-day hours.
138 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure centered along the East Coast will expand further west across the southern Great Lakes throughout the weekend and persist through midweek.
Adjusted highs very slightly towards a blend of the ECMWF (which performed quite well yesterday in the southern valley), CONSShort, and CONSMOS, all of which show the warmer temps lying in the central and northern half of the CWA. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 82 68 83 / 30 30 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 82 68 82 / 30 30 70 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 82 67 81 / 20 30 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 83 65 82 / 20 10 60 30 70.
Another warm afternoon on tap but the upper low across the TX vicinity will begin to spread moisture further north throughout the day.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a decaying cold front stretched out from west-central Minnesota across Lake Superior. Meanwhile a weak cold front will slide into Minnesota by the afternoon. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today, though could be several degrees cooler near Lake Michigan if the winds turn onshore.
The mentioned cold front starting to show up nicely across central MT where storms are already firing. With the higher cape areas, some hail is possible although expected size to just be near that severe criteria of around an inch. The remainder of Sunday looks breezy, cooler with seasonal high temperatures, and drying conditions. The combination of winds gusting to 40 MPH and RH dropping into the low 20s has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon into the evening across much of the CWA.
Persistent high pressure across the area will continue to control weather conditions. Light southerly flow will prevail as ridge axis remains over south-central Florida through today. Going into Sunday, the high pressure ridge axis moves north as closed low pressure area over Texas begins to travel east-northeast.
High pressure ridge axis will begin to lift north from central FL and some drier air will move in from the east. Max temps in the mid to upper 80s coast to the lower 90s interior. As the ridge axis continues northward and settles in to the Southeast, winds will become gradually easterly into midweek. At the same time, mid- level high pressure building in to the region will help usher in pockets of drier air, with PWATs falling to near or below 1.
(This evening through Sunday) Pesky upper low, centered near the Red River of south central Oklahoma this afternoon will drift north tonight into the day Sunday.
18z surface map placed high pressure off the east coast with ridging back west into the southern Plains. A trof of low pressure extended from the Canadian Prairies down the lee side of the Rockies. Aloft, upper air data showed low amplitude ridging over the central conus, with a cutoff mid level circulation in northern TX. This, combined with weak large scale ascent of the closed low crossing the eastern Plains, leads to isolated to scattered showers and storms from the south. Upper air pattern features amplifying ridging across the central conus through the week. Meanwhile the closed mid level low migrates northeast, possibly overhead by mid week, then opens up while moving very little into the lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley by Saturday.
Dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will remain over the FA, but they will be pushed eastward by a cold front.
The majority of the clusters on the WPC cluster analysis webpage, has the upper level trough, currently over north central TX, slowly drift towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley, then eventually weaken as it moves out of the region. As the trough weakens and shifts east of region and drier air advects in, chances of rain slowly shift east of region as well.
1157 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
333 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low over over Northeast Texas late this morning. An upper low moving north out of Texas will be the main player in the weather over the next few days. This low will slowly move north over the next several days and will help trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lower Mississippi Valley.
1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Isoalted to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the high terrain early this afternoon and shift toward the south around 10 to 20kts.
Currently, temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area with warmest readings in the north closest the thermal ridge axis. Upper low currently across TX lifts north overnight into Sunday and this begins to influence Iowa with deeper moisture arriving in the south.
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Large scale ridge influence continues through Sunday with well- above normal temperatures for early June. GOES water vapor imagery showing our next weather influencer heading north out of TX/OK - a large low pressure area.
Now under greater influence from the upper-level wind regime, the low pressure is now moving north/northeast. This process will continue, eventually speeding up as ridging aloft near NE Mexico provides an extra boost.
Water vapor imagery shows upper low centered over cntl Tx with some drier mid-upper level air trying to make its way in under its base from the southwest.
Dry conditions will persist the remainder of the afternoon and overnight with high pressure in control.
This higher moisture will slowly advance north today, further into Arkansas and reaching far southern Missouri by evening. Highs will likely be a few degrees cooler than Saturday however the humidity will be higher with dewpoints in the middle/upper 60s.
Latest WV imagery depicts large upper low spinning over Texas and Oklahoma with convection already occurring this afternoon. This low will slowly lift north towards our neck of the woods over the next 48 hours. upper low will slowly lift north into Oklahoma and southern Missouri, with its associated clouds/moisture moving into the CWA after 12z Sunday. As the low begins to move north, slightly cooler 850mb temps will be advected in and with more cloud cover, expect high temperatures to be lower than today, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Another very hot day ahead as upper level ridging spreads across the area. While this will not exactly make hings cooler, it could knock a couple of degrees off of the high temperatures.
Though instability will be limited, a pop up storm with some embedded thunder is always possible especially across the west where locations are closest to the closed low system across NE TX. Given the moist airmass, locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out mainly along and south of the Highway 98 corridor, but no widespread issues are expected yet. Then as synoptic-scale upper divergence increases with a jet max rounding the upper low and another mid-level impulse begins to move across the region, an uptick in convection is expected during the overnight/early Sunday morning hours with current guidance favoring a corridor from central through south/southeast MS for developing precip which will persist into the day Sunday.
1136 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A pattern of upper-ridging still persists over the area, leading to another day of relatively quiet weather over the eastern plains. Upper ridge begins to rebuild slightly on Mon, while drier air spreads across the mountains during the day. Expect a general downturn in convection over the high terrain in the afternoon, though some isolated, high based storms may linger for one more day over the eastern mountains where some residual moisture lingers. Remainder of the week then features a generally warm and dry forecast (hottest days Wed/Thu), as ridge drifts into the plains and dry/hot swly flow spreads eastward across CO.
GOES-16 Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low over Northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered to numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon over the Lower Mississippi Valley with the best coverage occurring south of I-40 over North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 80s across many locations.
Large scale high pressure is dominating the atmospheric column today. Warm and quiet weather will continue Sunday with lingering high pressure, and consistent swly flow.
219 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Multiple vorticity maxima continue to rotate around the weak upper low broadly centered over central TX.
The closed low over TX will begin to lift north tonight into Sunday and start to bringing some deeper moisture into the area.
1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The ridge axis is expected to move across the Northern Plains today as an upper level trough moves slowly across the Pacific NW. The closed low over the Southern Plains is expected to become more neutrally-tilted throughout the day, allowing more Gulf moisture to advect into the area. Sunday, the upper level trough will begin to push across the Northern Plains while the closed low finally begins to push to the north-northeast towards the Central Plains. Combined with the lee trough along the Front Range, there may be enough instability during the afternoon and evening for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop.
932 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Satellite imagery shows an approaching trof over the PacNW and southwest flow into our region. Anomalous cut off low remains over TX where it's been notably cooler than here the past couple days.
202 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
An upper level low situated across TX today will slowly lift northeast tonight into tomorrow, allowing for more southerly flow in the upper levels. This, combined with the southerly flow in the low levels from the ridge situated over the Atlantic, will increase deep layer moisture across the region on Sunday and PW values will climb above 2 inches. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s, only a few degrees above normal.
221 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through the period producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough broadens before finally pushing offshore Sunday, which will limit overall covg of precip. Elongated High at the SFC to the east and a weak trough over VA provides srly flow through the period with moist advection and pwats 1. Perhaps slightly better chances for organized showers/storms by mid/late week as ECM indicating broad trough over Great Lakes sliding s and e through the end of the week.
A large high pressure sitting off to the east has held up westerly flow over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Our area finds itself on the northwest edge of the large high pressure. The pattern begins changing tomorrow as an upper level trough held up by this ridging to the east breaks through the block and begins making its way toward the north and east. The highest probabilities of showers and storms continues to be east of I-35. There is a chance for some BR/FG development ahead of the lowering CIGs; however, it is highly dependent on when they arrive.
A drier and more stable airmass is expected to move in from the west on Sunday as the ridge strengthens resulting in an end to our thunderstorm chances for now. The ridge looks to break down and head east as a longwave trough sets up off the west coast.
Gusty south to southwest winds and decreasing temperatures can be expected Sunday through the middle of the coming week as a low pressure system slowly moves inland from the Eastern Pacific.
120 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A slow moving low pressure system continues to trod through the Red River Valley in to the ArklaTex this morning with a strong inverted ridge pushing into the CWA from the northeast.