Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will remain on the warm side of normal through the weekend as weak high pressure builds over the region. As we move into the AM hours Sunday, mid-level moisture over-topping the ridge will stream into northern Idaho and western Montana with our area on the southern edge of this moisture gradient. That being said, QPF amounts look very low and with a building ridge snow levels will climb above 9kft so precip type will be rain except across the highest peaks.
222 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 We experienced a chilly start to the day, though both Lubbock and Childress officially came up just short of the freezing mark, both dipping to 33 degrees. That said, most locations on the Caprock reached freezing, while several spots across the southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains dipped to or just below the freezing mark for the first time this fall season. This will occur as the High Plains remain beneath northwesterly flow. One clipper system moving through this flow and bringing a quick shot of snow to the Upper Midwest will usher in a dry cold front at our latitude Sunday morning.
Sunny skies prevailed across the cntrl TN Valley this Sat morning, as high pressure out of the srn Plains builds ewd into the region. Temps are struggling to climb into the lower 40s, after their lows earlier in the mid 30s/near 40F. Highs later today will do good to reach the 50F mark, as cooler/drier air continues to filter into the area from the NW. Clear skies, light winds, and good long wave radiational cooling should allow night time temperatures to cool to or just below freezing for much of the Tennessee Valley. In these events, some locations especially near large bodies of water and in the higher terrain should remain a few degrees warmer this go around. Another cold and frosty Sunday night with lows in the low/mid 30s.
A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail over the region this afternoon in the wake of the upper level trough now progressing toward GA and northern FL. High temperatures look on track to only reach into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees along and northwest of the I-65 corridor and in the lower to mid 60s across the remainder of south central AL and the western FL panhandle.
A cold front lacking precipitation will pass through Arkansas on Sunday morning making its complete passage beyond all sites by 22Z. The main impact from this cold front will be a wind shift that will see winds begin out of the south/southwest during the start of the forecast period and become out of the northwest later in the forecast period.
530 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front is set to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning. In fact, warmer temperatures are anticipated on Sunday.
642 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure passes to the south on Sunday.
/issued 222 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021/ We experienced a chilly start to the day, though both Lubbock and Childress officially came up just short of the freezing mark, both dipping to 33 degrees. That said, most locations on the Caprock reached freezing, while several spots across the southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains dipped to or just below the freezing mark for the first time this fall season. This will occur as the High Plains remain beneath northwesterly flow. One clipper system moving through this flow and bringing a quick shot of snow to the Upper Midwest will usher in a dry cold front at our latitude Sunday morning.
in the valleys, it was noticeably cooler wit temps mainly in the 50s. Another surge of cooler air as pushing down the plains as NW flow was increasing across the plains, especially in NE CO. Max temps tomorrow will be about 8 to 10F cooler as compared today on the plains, while temps over the higher terrain will only be 1 to 3 F cooler than today. Winds tomorrow will shift around to SW over the plains while WNW winds will prevail over the higher terrain, with mountain winds increasing as the day progresses. Ensemble spreads are fairly small, with forecast confidence on the higher side.
444 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Looks like we'll see a relatively quiet weekend as a large area of high pressure has set up off the California coast and the jet stream remains to our north. The location of the high pressure puts the CWA in a broad area of northwesterly flow. By tomorrow, slight height rises indicate high pressure building in a bit more. The ridge axis remains over the PacNW as the jet stream rides up and over the axis keeping the precip well to the north. Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year with highs on Sunday a few degrees warmer than today.
417 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Given recent observations of 60-80 mph wind gusts along the I-90 and Highway 14 corridors in Jackson and Haakon counties, an expansion of pressure rises 3-4+ mb/3 hr from swrn ND into nwrn SD over the last hour, and projected pressure rises of 5-7 mb/3 hr over swrn/s cntrl SD thru 00z, have opted to expand the High Wind Warning into portions of s cntrl SD and the Wind Advisory into Oglala Lakota County. Current surface map places low over central North Dakota with cold front through northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming. Cold front moves east rapidly this afternoon, with bubble of 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises. Cooler on Sunday, with increasing clouds as warm front lifts northeastward.
Areas of night and morning dense fog will continue across the San Joaquin Valley during the next couple of days as high pressure strengthens overhead.
225 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Looks like we'll see a relatively quiet weekend as a large area of high pressure has set up off the California coast and the jet stream remains to our north. The location of the high pressure puts the CWA in a broad area of northwesterly flow. By tomorrow, slight height rises indicate high pressure building in a bit more. The ridge axis remains over the PacNW as the jet stream rides up and over the axis keeping the precip well to the north. Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year with highs on Sunday a few degrees warmer than today.
Latest obs from across the region are starting to cool off amidst good radiational cooling conditions, however around a degree or so warmer than previous fcst trends. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 57 35 55 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 54 32 51 37 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 53 31 51 37 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 50 29 46 32 / 0 10 10 0 0 TN.
Upper level ridging will then build over the region mid week with moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions. With that said, cannot rule out some isolated freezing temperatures occurring within the Frost Advisory, but they are not expected to be long-lived or widespread enough to warrant an upgrade to a Freeze Warning. As such, the official forecast calls for overnight lows in the lower 30s across the Western Midlands, and in the low to mid 30s east and through the CSRA.
The strongest winds are in the higher foothills where gusts have reached 50 to 60 mph. A cold front associated with a storm system moving across the Northern Plains will drop south across eastern Colorado tonight. The cooler air behind the front will be shallow and dry for the most part. Other than a few flurries over the higher mountains, no precipitation is expected. This is expected to scour out the cooler air across much of northeast Colorado. The coolest temperature should be over far northeast Colorado where the cooler air will be deeper and could stay in place through the day.
337 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the weekend.
Should be enough mixing to keep most locations above freezing. Broad upper ridging will help keep us dry for the next couple of days at least.
Although temps will be at or below freezing where fog forms, it typically takes colder temperatures in the low to mid 20s (or lower) for ice crystal formation in fog - so not expecting any freezing fog issues, although we will monitor it.
634 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A strong cold front will move to the east early this evening, followed briefly by high pressure passing to the south on Sunday.
Those gusty winds are expected to subside around sunset and return, albeit to a lesser degree, later this evening into the early overnight hours behind a cold front that moves through the region overnight. That cold front will limit highs on Sunday to mainly the lower 60s.
Light/vrbl to near-calm winds will become swly at 5-10 kts after sunrise, finally bcmg nwly towards the end of the pd with the passage of another cold front. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the Rockies to maintain northwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex through Sunday night supporting mostly clear skies and stable conditions. Overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the warmer temperatures across mainly deep east Texas. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
18Z data has high pressure over the Mississippi Valley with a clipper system over northern North Dakota. The exception would be bridges were pavement temperatures would be close to freezing.
556 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Mostly clear skies this evening and overnight will foster sufficient radiational cooling which will bring the low temperatures down to the lower 40s across the area. A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Midwest this evening and into tomorrow. An attendant surface cold front will move into the area overnight and into the morning. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s with mostly sunny skies behind the aforementioned cold front.
340 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days as an upper level low moves off the eastern coast of the US. Looking at the model consensus, the low temperatures tonight overnight are expected to be a bit lower than guidance from NBM, so they were bumped down a few degrees to line up on the cooler side of the ensemble model consensus and account for additional effects of radiational cooling that will likely help the lows to overachieve guidance. Areas south of I-10/I-12 are forecast to see temperatures in the low 40s tonight.
247 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Strong winds will continue for a few more hours so will keep the High Wind Warning through expiration. A warm front will lift across the region on Sunday with a flat upper ridge over the northern Rockies.
Have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire. TWH A windy, warmer patter will continue through the short term forecast.
High pressure will build back in by mid week with warming conditions. A cold front was slipping off the coast this evening, so north wind and cooling on appears on schedule with easing by pre-dawn inland. A couple of dry cold fronts will move through the area during the near term period. The next cold front will move across the area Sunday night, but very little if any moisture is associated with this system.
349 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Given recent observations of 60-80 mph wind gusts along the I-90 and Highway 14 corridors in Jackson and Haakon counties, an expansion of pressure rises 3-4+ mb/3 hr from swrn ND into nwrn SD over the last hour, and projected pressure rises of 5-7 mb/3 hr over swrn/s cntrl SD thru 00z, have opted to expand the High Wind Warning into portions of s cntrl SD and the Wind Advisory into Oglala Lakota County. Current surface map places low over central North Dakota with cold front through northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming. Cold front moves east rapidly this afternoon, with bubble of 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises. Cooler on Sunday, with increasing clouds as warm front lifts northeastward.
/issued 238 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): 500mb trough across the eastern United States and the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide northerly winds aloft across deep south Texas tonight. high pressure across east Texas will settle across the coastal bend of Texas this evening.
Also with the approaching trough, winds will pick up during the day out of the southwest around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Northwest flow aloft moves in on Monday behind the trough, so temps look to cool off a few degrees during the afternoon Monday with highs generally in the mid 50s.
With the high center nearly overhead Sunday night, conditions appear ideal for radiational cooling.
Winds will veer around to the nw at around 5 kts Sunday afternoon with the passage of another cold front, and again become light/vrbl to near-calm after sunset Sunday. /Tonight/ Our region remains under nwly flow aloft this evening, with high pressure firmly in control at the sfc.
Broad upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and western US will continue mild weather through Monday. A weak trough in the north Pacific will move inland along the northern edge of the ridge tonight with clouds and light rain showers in northern mountains. After the fog clears and the weak trough exits east, Sunday will become mostly sunny and mild in all areas. Dry, mild weather will hold through Sunday night and Monday but clouds and winds will increase Monday ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front and upper trough. The snow level will briefly reach 10000 feet Sunday under the upper ridge.
WAA and associated height rises ongoing across the region this morning in response to a digging eastern Pac upper trough.
An upper low will continue over the Great Lakes area and an upper ridge will remain over the western U. A weak cold front in the Plains will drop southeast tonight and through Arkansas Sunday. High pressure will build in behind the front. A light southwest wind tonight will keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than last night. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s and in the lower 30s to lower 40s Sunday night. Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and in the lower 60s to lower 70s Monday.
Those gusty winds are expected to subside around sunset and return, albeit to a lesser degree, later this evening into the early overnight hours behind a cold front that moves through the region overnight. That cold front will limit highs on Sunday to mainly the lower 60s. Northwest flow aloft persists across the forecast area into Sunday and Sunday night with the upper flow flattening Monday into Monday night as the upper ridge moves east of the Rockies and across the Plains region Monday. Westerly surface flow across the high plains will drive temperatures up well into the 70s on Monday as dewpoints are driven down into the 20s over the western sections of the forecast area. Record high temperatures on Monday range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the area.
Strong high pressure centered near the southern California coast will keep temperatures well above normal through Monday with lower desert highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Winds will veer around to the nw at around 5 kts Sunday afternoon with the passage of another cold front, and again become light/vrbl to near-calm after sunset Sunday. /Tonight/ Our region remains under nwly flow aloft this evening, with high pressure firmly in control at the sfc. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the Rockies to maintain northwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex through Sunday night supporting mostly clear skies and stable conditions. Overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the warmer temperatures across mainly deep east Texas. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Low temperatures tonight are still expected to drop to near or slightly below the freezing mark across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL. The axis of the trough will move quickly eastward over the western Atlantic by noon Monday. Sunny skies continue on Sunday with slightly warmer afternoon highs in the lower to mid 60s.
in the valleys, it was noticeably cooler wit temps mainly in the 50s. Another surge of cooler air as pushing down the plains as NW flow was increasing across the plains, especially in NE CO. Max temps tomorrow will be about 8 to 10F cooler as compared today on the plains, while temps over the higher terrain will only be 1 to 3 F cooler than today. Winds tomorrow will shift around to SW over the plains while WNW winds will prevail over the higher terrain, with mountain winds increasing as the day progresses. Ensemble spreads are fairly small, with forecast confidence on the higher side. upper level ridging is forecast to move across Colorado during this period. The San Luis Valley will be in the lower 20s.
Winds have subsided to around 15 knots, and conditions should continue to relax overnight as high pressure moves in. /issued 340 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021/ Zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days as an upper level low moves off the eastern coast of the US. Looking at the model consensus, the low temperatures tonight overnight are expected to be a bit lower than guidance from NBM, so they were bumped down a few degrees to line up on the cooler side of the ensemble model consensus and account for additional effects of radiational cooling that will likely help the lows to overachieve guidance. Areas south of I-10/I-12 are forecast to see temperatures in the low 40s tonight. Low temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer Monday morning.
High pressure will build back in by mid week with a warming trend. Weak dry high pressure then over the area today with slightly below normal temps under a sunny sky. highs only in the low/mid 60s. A cold front crosses the area tonight, and with 5-10 kt wind through the night not expecting any frost. Even cooler then for Monday due to CAA behind the front. High pressure maintains clear and cool weather Monday night.
cold front lays along a line from Laramie to Cody this morning at 06Z.
18Z data has high pressure over the Mississippi Valley with a clipper system over northern North Dakota. The exception would be bridges were pavement temperatures would be close to freezing. Initially partly cloudy skies Sunday night will allow temperatures to cool into the lower to mid 20s. Precipitation and cloud cover will limit Monday's highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s in the northeast, while partial sunshine on the other side of a developing warm front would support highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the south.
A mostly snow scenario where locally higher model QPFs are realized could bring warning criteria snow of up to 7" and significant travel impacts, whereas the more likely rain/snow mix scenario with sfc temps above freezing and results in only limited impacts.
1257 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure passes to the south on Sunday.
Snow accumulations will be limited to the highest mountain peaks through Sunday.
1021 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Looks like we'll see a relatively quiet weekend as a large area of high pressure has set up off the California coast and the jet stream remains to our north. The location of the high pressure puts the CWA in a broad area of northwesterly flow. By tomorrow, slight height rises indicate high pressure building in a bit more. The ridge axis remains over the PacNW as the jet stream rides up and over the axis keeping the precip well to the north. Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year with highs on Sunday a few degrees warmer than today.
Given recent observations of 60-80 mph wind gusts along the I-90 and Highway 14 corridors in Jackson and Haakon counties, an expansion of pressure rises 3-4+ mb/3 hr from swrn ND into nwrn SD over the last hour, and projected pressure rises of 5-7 mb/3 hr over swrn/s cntrl SD thru 00z, have opted to expand the High Wind Warning into portions of s cntrl SD and the Wind Advisory into Oglala Lakota County. Current surface map places low over central North Dakota with cold front through northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming. Cold front moves east rapidly this afternoon, with bubble of 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises. Cooler on Sunday, with increasing clouds as warm front lifts northeastward. Flat upper ridge will result in robust low level warm advection Sunday night/Monday.
(Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to move across the area this morning causing winds towards the north.
Lows tonight will be considerably cooler compared to this morning with lows Sunday morning ranging from the mid 30s north to lower 40s across the coast and far southeast Big Bend. With these cooler temperatures expected, the front advisory continues for Sunday morning for southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and portions of the Florida Panhandle. High temperatures for Sunday will be limited to the lower to mid 60s. The upper level trough axis will shift east of the region Sunday night with flow becoming more zonal on Monday. High pressure will dominate at the surface through the short term and dry conditions will prevail.
(Today and tonight) A Pacific cold front is currently moving into far northern OK and will pass through the forecast area by early afternoon.
1003 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will prevail through Sunday, before a cold front passes through the region Sunday night. High pressure will then return for early to mid week. Another cold front will approach the area later in the week. At the surface, high pressure will steadily build from the west, as a post- frontal trough moves in from the north overnight, impacting mainly the Charleston quad-county district with a wind shift from northwest to north. A mid level trough will shift from the Great Lakes region to the East Coast Sunday into Sunday night, helping to send a cold front through the local area overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s with lows overnight ranging from around 40 inland to mid 40s closer to the coast.
/issued 740 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021/ Positive tilted upper trough down the Eastern Seaboard into the Gulf of Mexico pushing a weak cold front southward over the FL Peninsula this evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies along the front and clearing skies over the Nature Coast. Strong high pressure is quickly building into the region with much cooler temps and drier airmass overnight. Strong high pressure quickly building into the region is producing breezy conditions over the N Gulf and latest buoy reports showing winds around 15 kts gusting to around 20 kts and seas 5-6 ft, which is slightly above guidance.
1041 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure passes to the south on Sunday.
North to northwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region through the short term as a trough lifts across the Great Lakes and weak ridging builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will continue an eastward transition allowing for a persist onshore flow to bring a slight increase in moisture and warmer temperatures across South Texas. Highs today will be ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s, with temperatures running about 2-3 degrees warmer on Monday.
1235 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure will prevail through Sunday, before a cold front passes through the region Sunday night. High pressure will then return for early to mid week. Another cold front will approach the area later in the week. At the surface, high pressure will steadily build from the west, as a post- frontal trough moves in from the north overnight, impacting mainly the Charleston quad-county district with a wind shift from northwest to north. A mid level trough will shift from the Great Lakes region to the East Coast Sunday into Sunday night, helping to send a cold front through the local area overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s with lows overnight ranging from around 40 inland to mid 40s closer to the coast.
Winds will remain from the northwest as our area is situated east of the high center. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s under clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s as high pressure weakens and moves further northward.