Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE U. THIS WOULD KEEP AN INTENSE MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC FROM WHICH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPLY TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WITH TIME THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE CHANNEL WOULD GET SLOWLY SHUNTED W & AS SUCH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WOULD TARGET WESTERN KS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THE RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CAUSING THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. WITH "JOAQUIN" FORECAST TO MOVE NW THEN N ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE CUT-OFF MID-UPPER LOW WOULD REMAIN CAMPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THEREBY KEEPING A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD. UPPER TROUGH.
639 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SO LOOKING AT HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSIST FROM ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS AN ADVANCING TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BLOCKS ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
541 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL ATMS STABILITY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. AS THE 500 MB RIDGING AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASES EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS IN THE RGV TO WARM GRADUALLY.
331 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA.
650 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT DEFINITELY BROUGHT AUTUMN AIR WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
THE HIGH IN PORTLAND, DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 69 OR 70 DEGREES. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A SLIGHTLY BETTER RECOVERY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUR MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF DEEPENING TENNESSEE VALLEY TROUGH EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT, WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AROUND BNA BY 18 TOMORROW.
700 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
300 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. OVERALL STILL EXPECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE RIDGE AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST WITH ABOVE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GOING FOR TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NEVADA ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHEAST CO. POSSIBLY STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL WY. LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVES INTO CWA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH MLCIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS. CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON -TSRA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. QUIET, WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SITUATION WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND PLACES MONTANA INTO A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
155 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST.
131 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FREE AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
615 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
641 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THEN STALL TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA.
216 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 THE MID LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BUT 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 250 MB CONTINUE AT THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING HYBRID CYCLONE EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
123 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GIVE US ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SIMILAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE WEST IS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
338 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
ONLY OTHER EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THANKS TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS YESTERDAY WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
1139 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2015 High pressure will gradually build in through the weekend resulting in mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. but most likely a cooling trend will take place along with a chance of showers as a low pressure system tracks near or across the region. No big surprises for the morning update, as the upper low heads south and high pressure begins to build into the region from the northwest. Tobin 18Z TAFS: The upper level low has moved far enough south that most of the wrap around moisture expected across the south for today should stay south of the OR/WA border.
153 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
120 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH ALL AREAS EXCEEDING 80.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENSION ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA THIS MORNING. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING DECENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF MID LEVEL SHRA DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN LATER TONIGHT.
259 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING THEN STALL TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA.
331 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SENT SOME HIGH CLOUDS UP THIS WAY WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DELAYED THE CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF HERE. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM THROUGH THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THOUGH THERE IS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT Thu May 7 2015/ There is an upper trough over the western half of the conus with the CWA under mostly westerly flow aloft. The upper low is centered over California and is expected to move toward the region through the end of the week.
A potent upper low will move into the Four Corners region late Friday, with an increasingly diffluent flow aloft developing across the Southern Plains into the evening hours.
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS ARE A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
254 PM CDT Thu May 7 2015 An upper level low is dropping south along the west coast keeping upper level flow backed from the southwest over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s east of the dryline will provide enough instability for a few storms to develop this evening and tonight especially north and east of Midland. The upper low will move into the southwestern U. The upper low could also bring strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains as it passes just north of the area and a High Wind Watch may be needed within the next 24 hours.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THESE ARE WELL WEST OVER OHIO OR IN THE RIDGES. KEPT THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP WORDING OVER THE RIDGES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH DIRUNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
144 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FREE AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
An upper level low continues to meander southwest and is now over California pumping moisture up from the southwestern US into southwest Montana and portions of Idaho. This low will continue to wander around the southwestern US, but it is expected to slowly trend south and east over the next few days. This will leave most of central Idaho and western Montana in a pattern called split flow, where we have a cut off low pressure system to the south and a trough to the north. Being stuck in the middle we generally get cooler than average and breezy weather. The instability will be shallow and the freezing level too low for significant thunderstorms.
406 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL HEAD FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
259 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 RIDGING ALOFT AND A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS MADE FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY OUT THERE. THIS IS LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. AND WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT SUPPRESSING GROWTH.
/ISSUED 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR FUNNELING IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO FLORIDA BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
315 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE LOW 80S GIVEN INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND LESS MIXING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INDICATING A WK SHRTWV WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NGT AS CDFNT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS SE CANADA SAGS SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS.
634 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL HEAD FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
245 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
126 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GIVE US ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS.
345 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BUT SINCE WE ARE STARTING OUT A LITTLE WARMER WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS TODAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND NO NEW INFORMATION WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
318 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER GUSTY WINDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES.
H5 TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A S/W TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. 850-700MB TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD SO AN INCREASE AN AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S MIDDLE/UPPER VALLEY WITH UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY EACH DAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN PROG A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
212 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE MARITIMES.
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE GULF OF AK/CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 84 HOURS WITH SOME MODERATE AMPLIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL ROLL OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY SPREAD POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SLOW AND STEADY SOUTHWARD MARCH OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. IT HAS MARGINALLY IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG SOUTH FORK RIDGE AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. THERE IS A BIT OF QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DISLODGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
322 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN NESTLED BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS STATES. RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP OUR AREA LARGELY FREE FROM RAIN AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PORTRAYING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO OAKES. LATEST RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CIRCULATING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THE LATEST 05 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECOMING SCATTERED BY 16 UTC. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS SHOWING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER 20S.
430 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS A PINCHED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SW VA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN U/L LOW PERSISTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST TRAPPED UNDER AN U/L RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AROUND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONSHORE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PUSH RELATIVELY COOLER MARINE LAYER ONSHORE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO NE ARKANSAS AND NW MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE HUNTSVILLE AREA AND WEST OF SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
251 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES ENE OF JAX BEACH. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
305 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. FRIDAY APPEARS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A NORTHERLY WINS.
715 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015 Convection has been struggling to intensify along a cold front over eastern KS for the past couple of hours.
THE EXITING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WAS STARTING TO KICK OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH A TRANSITIONAL UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AND AS TEMPS DROP NEW SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE E MTS. LOOK FOR THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES IN. WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AND A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.
929 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME MINIMAL POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THAT WILL BE IT. STILL QUITE COOL TO START THE WEEK OUT WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER MELTING OFF ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE AREA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM E/KSWO TO KOUN TO KDUC TO SE/KSPS. /ISSUED 417 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
FREEZING LEVEL AT 14. /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATELY.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS.
The broad pattern across the country this afternoon is one with a deep trough across the western half of the Nation and a modest ridge over the eastern half, leaving eastern Kansas and Missouri in a southwest flow. Within the trough to the west a decent sized low is lifting north with a stout low level jet working north in the southwest flow. The cold front associated with the low lifting north, which is still to our west, has sparked another line of storms in eastern Kansas. Storms move east from central Kansas, with the cold front, will begin to bump into the worked over airmass across extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri later this afternoon and into the early evening. the cold front, sparking the storms in Kansas this afternoon, will work east through Missouri overnight.
A LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS WHAT IS LEFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA OPENS INTO THE WAVE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BAY AREA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
The upper-level trough, which has been a major player in producing showers and thunderstorms, for the last several days, will finally move north and east of Texas overnight tonight. Tomorrow, another cold front will push into and across West Central Texas. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement, and both continue to develop a long wave trough aloft over the western United States into mid week.
RAIN CHANCES START TO GO UPWARD FROM HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 58/ROSE /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WITH A RIDGE EAST. MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE THAT RIDGE HOLDS OUT IN THE SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM EXITS FAR NORTH. A COLD FRONT DOES GET PUSHED THIS WAY AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHWARD.