Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
526 AM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
/issued 355 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low over the southern Panhandle this morning and will continue to track east over Oklahoma and Arkansas by tonight. At the surface, a closed low will move east along the Red river today with an associated dry Pacific cold front moving east through the forecast area. Even with the passage of the Pacific cold front, abundant sunshine and down- sloping surface winds will result in afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday with most areas seeing highs around 80 degrees. Clear skies tonight coupled with light winds will result in cooler post-frontal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DRY, COLD FRONT FORECAST TO GRAZE NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
905 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.
927 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TODAY AS THE ATMS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AT THE HIGHER LEVELS. THE PAIR OF 500 MB TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS OVER THE NM/TX/OK AREA WILL PUSH OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY QUICKLY TODAY ALLOWING A ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO MON. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS AS THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERDO THE EXPECTED HIGHS TOO MUCH.
653 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH. STILL WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE HIGH IN THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE REASON FOR THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH THE STRATUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARING THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT DAMPENING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACCORDING TO THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE.
1006 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AND DAYTIME HEATING WITH CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM THE PASSING OF THE LOW.
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAN TODAYS WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH COLD ADVECTION LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MILD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Iowa, with a trailing cold front extending southwest into the southern Plains. This will eventually result in the trailing cold front exiting the forecast area to the east by around 00Z tonight. Scattered showers/storms continue to be expected in the warm sector well to the east of the approaching cold front.
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SE. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EXPECT AEX WHICH SHOULD BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THIS TIME. /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ LATEST ROUND OF STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. FOR THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THAT SLOW MARCH TOWARDS THE GULF TODAY. INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST GULF REGION.
DENOFF WEBCAM IN CNTRL ND SHOWS A COATING OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER RETURNS. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH ENOUGH SFC HEATING WITH HIGHS 45-50 SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IF TEMPERATURES DO DROP BELOW FREEZING THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN THERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER A DEEP LAYER INTO THE DGZ SUPPORTING DECENT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER A DEEP LAYER INTO THE DGZ SUPPORTING DECENT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.
SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AR. HAVE SEEN LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HRS. THE COLD COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN.
642 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A cold front will begin moving into the area toward the end of the forecast period, resulting in a northerly wind shift and decreasing ceilings, though it looks like any precipitation should hold off until after 01/12Z. /issued 343 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ Upper pattern has a trough this morning extending from the Upper Midwest back to AZ. This trough will swing east bringing a chance of rain to the region. After it passes an upper ridge will build in as the weather warms. However a strong cold front will blow into the area Friday. believe that is overdone so will stay closer to warmer MAV guidance in the 50s.
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER 01/08Z AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING WEST TO EAST MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY AIR STILL RESIDES IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE. THE ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
835 AM MST THU MAR 31 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ACCOMPANYING TRAILING COLD FRONT ON NOSE OF 110 KT MID LVL JET. SLIGHT/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS INTO MAINLY OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POTENTIAL (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IF MID-UPPER 60 SFC TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE CROSSING NRN LWR MI. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER.
SOME SCATTERED RAIN IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRIMARY 500 HPA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK. COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN MI.
THOUGH GIVEN THE LOWER PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 60 75 48 / 80 70 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 59 75 49 / 80 70 50 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 59 75 47 / 80 70 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 57 75 48 / 70 80 60 20 TN.
750 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
Cold front has recently cleared western AR and far SE OK with building high pressure allowing for tranquil conditions.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT WITH COOLER NIGHTS.
1042 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTEHASTERN ZONES AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
858 AM PDT THU MAR 31 2016 WARMER. A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE CONTINUED WARMING.
/ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway.
Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave trough axis across central North America. There is a secondary surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon. For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward, however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. For the end of the business week and into the weekend, 500-hPa longwave ridging is expected upstream.
A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat.
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SPOTTY BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE REGION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PULLS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
Conditions will improve to VFR area-wide by this afternoon as a cold front exits the region. /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ A cold front will continue to move across the area early this morning. Weak, dry cold fronts will move across the area every 2-3 days bringing little more than a wind shift and a few degrees of cooling behind each front.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH IT'S AXIS RUNNING ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS SHOULD SEE WARMER HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS YESTERDAY; ON AVERAGE OF 2 TO 8 DEGREES.
Today will be noticeably cooler than compared to yesterday. An upper level trough will continue to swing across the greater region. For the end of the business week and into the weekend, 500-hPa longwave ridging is expected upstream.
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER 01/08Z AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING WEST TO EAST MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
912 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016 NO UPDATES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS WELL OUT OF THE STATE AND MOVING THROUGH WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY.
541 AM MST THU MAR 31 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA.
A HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OCEAN. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
1146 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO EXTREME NW CWA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Byrd Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AND WILL KEEP MENTION OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACH AREA WITH BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND DRIVING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED JUST BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH FROM CENTRAL NEBR INTO FAR NWRN IOWA. ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPSTREAM H5 TROUGH. THE HIGHS POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT WILL BE NEAR THE NEBR/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. HIGHS TODAY NEAR A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FROM NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S FAR NWRN ZONES. A WEAK CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NWRN IOWA THIS EVENING. THE NERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW WILL HAVE THE BETTER 30 POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST AND UPPER 20S EAST.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX. THE LACK OF A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CAN BE SEEN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CASA GRANDE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST REPLACED BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AN EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT S OF PT CONCEPTION AND WITH THE MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500' THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY NORTHEAST WINDS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MTNS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND WITH THE RIDGE NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN BEHIND. THIS IS FORCING A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BREEZES MORE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR GULF SIDE WATERS.
A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS.
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 159 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST OVER CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADVANCE OF TROF DIGGING TO OUR WEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. TROF OVER THE PAC NW TODAY WILL DIG TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. TRACK OF THIS LOW IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT BUT INITIAL PERIOD OF ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEPENING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD YIELD SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER AND THIS IS NOT JUST DYNAMICALLY INDUCED.
615 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER IS A FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. MOIST ADVECTION THAT IS UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS SPAWNING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO. BUT THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD LIMIT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. BUT THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD LIMIT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SPLIT. WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR LOWER POPS SINCE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE MAIN TROUGH. TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 00Z THIS AFTN AND THEN PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OK BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE I-40 BY END OF FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTN.