Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 While temperatures are above normal for late November, they are cooler than 24 hours ago as the cold front has moved into southern parts of Missouri and Illinois. It is also dry over the area as showers are closer to the upper low located over central Oklahoma. This upper low will open up today and move east into the Tennessee Valley by early this evening. There will be limited ascent with the upper trough during the day, so expect it to be dry. Chances for showers will increase tonight as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area tonight. Highs today will still be above normal over the region even behind the cold front and with clouds to start the day.
High temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through this weekend as a low pressure system develops off the southern California coast.
TFJ As another low pressure trough and increased cloudiness continue moving eastward through the region this morning, gusty west winds showing up on central Montana observations and virga showers showing up on radar reflectivity images give light to the general location of the responsible frontal system. After analyzing all of the available model data and in collaboration with neighboring offices, felt is was best to upgrade the High Wind Watch over our SE zones to a High Wind Warning, including Richland County as well. Most of these higher wind gusts at the surface may only be realized along the higher elevation ridges - such as the Big Sheep Mountains.
High temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through this weekend as a low pressure system develops off the southern California coast. A low pressure system developing along the California coast will provide a steady fetch of high level moisture into the area. Models continued to struggle with the evolution of this low pressure system the next few days.
615 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will prevail across the area through tonight. A weak cold front will approach Thursday and move into the area Thursday night.
A cold front will move in from the north Thursday morning/near the end of the TAF cycle. /issued 300 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017/ The next several days will be uneventful except for a few cold frontal passages. The first cold front will come after midnight tonight courtesy of an upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
However, with an initially closed upper low pushing the surface features, there will be enough ascent for scattered showers in much of the area. Instability, on the whole, is lacking as well, but with the presence of the upper low, a few rumbles of thunder should be expected over northern Arkansas. The front will push out of the area tonight, with high pressure following. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but with quasi- zonal upper flow, don't expect a significant cool down just yet.
Additional fog may develop across the remainder of the area in advance of a weak cold front.
616 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Weak cold front passes today.
A cold front is making progress southward to near KCLL but it will take it's time pushing south based on HRRR trends. The fog was occurring ahead of a weak cold front that should work its way through the forecast area over the next several hours and off the coast during the late morning period.
the trailing cold front is expected to weaken before finally pushing across our area on Thursday.
341 AM MST Wed Nov 29 2017 An upper level ridge will be over the area this morning, but then this afternoon and evening an upper level disturbance will be moving eastward across southern CO. Most of the lower elevations should see overnight lows in the 20s, but the lower portions of the San Luis Valley should see lows in the teens.
The cold front has cleared east of I-35 early this morning. A weak cold front is moving across the area overnight and expected to exit South Central Texas between 5 and 6 am this morning. In addition, patchy to isolated areas of dense fog are occurring ahead of the cold front east of Interstate 35 and expected to continue through 8 am this morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are forecast for this afternoon in the wake of the front with highs in the lower to mid 70s most areas (upper 60s Hill Country).
On its way, it will pick up the leftover surface system from this morning's upper low and bring it through our region as a cold front late tonight through Thursday morning.
Water vapor imagery indicates upper level low spinning over eastern Oklahoma early this morning, and models in good agreement that this feature will weaken and drift slowly east into the southeastern states through tonight. At slightly lower levels, mid level trof and associated surface front will move more slowly east, being situated just to the west of our forecast area by late tonight. With the moderating onshore flow, high temperatures today will be around 5 to 10 degrees above climo, and lows tonight even warmer, about 10 to as much as 15 degrees above climo.
805 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Dry and warmer than average weather will continue until the passage of a cold front on Thursday night. The moisture starved cold front will exit the region early this morning. With the lack of deep moisture and substantial upper level support, the only thing expected with its crossing is an area of mid clouds and eventually cooler temperatures. Cloud cover associated with the boundary will exit the south by late this morning and cooler air will fill in behind the exiting clouds. Temperatures today will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler then yesterday, but still above seasonal averages. Latest model data is moving the trough and corresponding surface cold front eastward a bit faster, with showers reaching my Ohio counties Thursday afternoon.
834 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front moves across the area today, followed by high pressure through Thursday.
957 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure traveling across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather today. A cold front is forecast to cross the region on Thursday, bringing the likelihood for showers.
As another low pressure trough and increased cloudiness continue moving eastward through the region this morning, gusty west winds showing up on central Montana observations and virga showers showing up on radar reflectivity images give light to the general location of the responsible frontal system. After analyzing all of the available model data and in collaboration with neighboring offices, felt is was best to upgrade the High Wind Watch over our SE zones to a High Wind Warning, including Richland County as well. Most of these higher wind gusts at the surface may only be realized along the higher elevation ridges - such as the Big Sheep Mountains.
Do not expect any rainfall today through the evening, but expect showers to begin moving into west Central Alabama before sunrise Thursday, ahead of a stronger trough approaching the area. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with mid 60s in the far northeast and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. A weak front will move through the region on Thursday in association with a low-amplitude 500mb trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley.
Meanwhile, the focus for the short term remains on the closed low over NE OK this morning, which will traverse E across Nrn AR before opening up as it enters the mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon. Much of the convection this morning remains centered over Ern OK/NW AR, with the deeper lyr of drier air winning out this morning despite the forcing present ahead of the low. Thus, have lowered pops to slight chance today across SE OK/SW AR, with theta-e ridging evident over Ncntrl LA helping to enhance the potential for isolated/widely sct -SHRA development over these areas.
536 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 244 AM CST Cooler and drier air continues to move in across the region post fropa, and with CAA remaining in place over much of the region. As deeper trough moves through the Great Lakes region tonight, lead energy will lift across the region.
The highest amount observed in eastern Oklahoma was near Miami/Jay, with the Jay mesonet site checking in with 1. Latest surface analysis shows low level circulation is just southeast of Tulsa, with cold front extending into southeast Oklahoma.
1038 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front moves across the area today, followed by high pressure through Thursday.
Warmer and continued to dry today with mean layer subsidence dominating the local forecast area. Aloft, a mid level ridge will build overhead. Temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70s (near 80 toward I-75 corridor) with a cooler onshore flow keeping coastal locations in the low to mid 70s. NNE winds 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft today with high pressure to the north of the region and weak inverted coastal trough offshore of the Fl Atlantic coast. Potential for marine fog and low stratus over portions of the nearshore waters later today into tonight with water temps and dew pts in the low/mid 60s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): This morning the RGV is positioned between a modest upper level low traversing eastward along the I40 corridor and an upper level ridge centered across central Mexico. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler this afternoon, however, not much of an air mass change.
611 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will prevail across the area through tonight. A weak cold front will approach Thursday and move into the area Thursday night.
A weak trough is dropping through California with a shield of high clouds tracking across the southern half of the state out ahead of it. With mixing from the trough and some cloud cover, widespread dense fog is not expected to develop in the San Joaquin Valley this morning. Temperatures are running up a few degrees from 24 hours ago, but the passing trough is progged to maintain afternoon highs right around climo again today. The next few days will remain dry with temperatures warming a few degrees above normal under a weak flat ridge and generally zonal flow behind the exiting trough.
Meanwhile, broad flat upper ridging persists through remainder of the week. Some patchy valley fog will continue to be possible in the Central Valley with freezing fog in mountain valley nights and mornings.
1058 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Dry air is moving in behind a weak cold front. High pressure will return for tonight and early Thursday.
653 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Cooler conditions will prevail today behind a dry cold front crossing the region this morning.
Building high pressure will bring mostly dry conditions to Northwest California through the remainder of the work week. A cold upper trough will bring the next chance for rain this weekend with possible snow accumulations at mountain passes. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions across northwest California today with patchy valley fog clearing by the afternoon. Drying air in the low to mid levels will help temperatures fall into the mid 30s for some near-coastal areas in Humboldt and Mendocino counties late tonight.
555 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure traveling across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather today. A cold front is forecast to cross the region on Thursday, bringing the likelihood for showers.
Surface temperatures were in the low to mid 50s across the area. so continued very mild with a northeast wind circulating around the low to our southwest. As the low weakens and shifts eastward, the precipitation will become even more scattered. There will be a chance for some isolated lightning strikes closer to the low circulation, but no severe weather is expected. Cooler and drier air will begin to move southeastward into the area tonight with lows in the low 40s over our northwest CWA, but near 50 across the southeast. High pressure and another fairly dry air mass will begin to edge into the area on Thursday.
620 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front will bring a few rain showers to Northern NY this morning. High pressure will return this afternoon with clearing skies and cooler temperatures. The radar depiction along and ahead of the cold front shows very light precipitation, mainly confined to the Finger Lakes and northeastward. It will cool and chilly tonight as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure will slide off the east coast on Thursday. Another cyclone will move through Canada and drag a frontal system toward NY and PA Thursday afternoon, spreading rain showers across the region. Dynamic cooling aloft combined with colder overnight temperatures should yield light snowfall Thursday night, especially over the high terrain.
The rather stagnant pattern continues, with our forecast area remaining sandwiched between high pressure centered over the four corners region and an upper level trough centered off the Pacific Northwest and Canadian coasts. Instead, the trough offshore strengthens and nears us over the weekend. Have continued the slight chances for thunderstorms in these areas, but suspect that further model runs may introduce more changes over the next several days, mainly as any slight variation in location or strength of the opposing ridge and trough will make for significant changes in the locations where convection will be possible. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough near the coast will produce strong north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas through the week.
233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A typical summer time pattern will continue over the Mid-South over the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the area.
The weak short wave trough associated with the elevated convection moving into the area early this morning will translate across the southern half of the area through sunrise. Mid-level troughing will gradually transition to a more zonal flow regime, with rising 500 mb heights pointing to a continued warm and humid trend.
1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Upper level high pressure drifting eastward along the Colorado/New Mexico border this afternoon, with isolated/sct tsra rotating around the high across much of the higher terrain as of 21z. On Tuesday, upper high shifts slowly into NM, with a subtle increase in wly flow across CO through the day. Given increase in moisture and instability expect an upturn in convection most areas, including the eastern plains as weak sly steering currents will help give convection a shove eastward away from the higher terrain in the late. Max temps may drift down just a degf or two with upper high slipping away, though readings will still approach 100f across the lower Arkansas Valley for another day.
For Wednesday, a sunny and dry day is expected and temperatures will begin to warm back up as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region.
The main impact today is the return of warmer temperatures, and the potential for strong to severe storms this evening. The GFS/Canadian/NAM show 850 mb temperatures from 23 to 30 C, while the ECMWF is slightly cooler with temperatures from 20-25C. An upper-level trough will be tracking southeastward into the Dakotas and western Minnesota today. Upper troughing moving through the Great Lakes will bring a temporary spell of northwesterly flow aloft by midweek. This trough will force a cold front through the area on Wednesday, with the latest indications pointing towards the best chance of afternoon or evening convection staying south of the forecast area.
/issued 225 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Satellite and radar images indicate isolated convection continues to develop across the coastal sections of the CWA this afternoon as the seabreeze front across the lower Texas coast moves further inland. 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and a 500mb inverted trough across eastern Mexico will continue to bring moisture into northeast Mexico tonight into Tuesday. Isolated showers will likely develop across the coastal waters Tues night and move inland across the lower TX coast late Tues night into early Wed morning.
A mid level ridge axis extending from the Texas panhandle, through to northeast Arkansas will weaken slightly during this period.
348 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 An upper ridge across the Panhandles today through Wednesday will allow for continued hot and dry conditions.
Surface and upper level ridging will continue to expand westward from the western Atlantic. Look for another typical summertime day Tuesday with PoPs 50% most inland areas and highs in the lower 90s. Highs Wednesday should reach the lower to mid 90s away the coastal areas.
A gradual warming trend is then likely late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds back toward the West Coast. The most notable cool down will be in the higher elevations as the air mass aloft cools and across the far inland areas.
Very warm mid week with a cold front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend. With plenty of low level moisture in place and the expected short wave trof to move along that boundary, expect scattered showers thunderstorms to develop in the daytime heating. Some areas in the lowlands may top out in the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon.
138 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows low pressure over Iowa with broad southwesterly flow ahead of it across the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys. Plan on lows in the lower to middle 70s, warmest in the urban centers. Broad upper level ridging across the southern US is likely to suppress convection across central Kentucky and most of southern Indiana Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A warm front will move north across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa by early afternoon as low pressure organizes over south centrak South Dakota.
It is a quiet morning across the region with a flat upper ridge of high pressure over the region. On the satellite and water vapor imagery, you can clearly see a "ring of fire" or convection around the upper level ridge from the Four Corners Region across the Cornbelt into the Ohio River Valley Region. We will add another degree to the high temperatures with lower to middle 90s common around the area.
1105 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Broad southwesterly flow developing aloft behind the departing ridge of high pressure will provide continued cooling and drying through Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. High pressure aloft will continue weaken through Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure center near the Four Corners Region slowly rotates east. Some marine intrusion is possible into the lower portions of the San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Valleys early Tuesday morning and possibly again Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 TODAY AND TONIGHT: Low level wind/moisture surge crossed the region last evening/early this morning, which along with the cooler temperatures aloft with the upper level low, sparked a robust area of showers and storms across the waters and mainland south of I-75.
The system will bring cooler temperatures and some temporary relief from the heat. Upper ridge will build back into Montana on Wednesday with warmer temperatures. Upper level ridge continues to build into Montana along with most of the Western U.
Very warm mid week with a cold front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend.
With a disorganized high pressure system over the SW US, storm motions will be variable, but cells should travel somewhat slowly toward the W across northern areas and toward the S across W central and SW areas. Daytime highs will be a few degrees warmer across the east today and tomorrow.
In addition, increasing low level jet increases across western and central ND overnight and if convection developing more toward northwest ND late this afternoon/evening, may continue to propagate across northern counties along the Canadian border into the overnight hours, in strong warm advection along the leading edge of the low level jet. Strong thermal ridging pushing into the south central may inhibit convection here, with better chances possibly farther north into north central ND along the fringes of the thermal cap before spreading southward as you move east into the James River Valley.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s along the island chain under mostly cloudy skies.
Deep layer ridging will continue to expand westward today. Highs will be in the lower 90s.
455 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The weak shear axis remains to our S this morning, extending from portions of extreme SE TX into S LA, with the morning GOES-16 imagery depicting a a mid level circulation along the lower Sabine River Valley just N of Sabine Pass. Meanwhile, flat upper level ridging and associated dry air noted on the 7. 95um imagery are anchored over OK/AR into the Mid-South region this morning, with the short term progs more bullish today than in recent days in maintaining the strength of the ridge over this area for the next couple of days, thus keeping the shear axis to our S longer than anticipated.
The diffuse front will continue to linger over the area today while Bermuda high pressure ridges in from the Western Atlantic. The highest moisture will remain east with precipitable water values at 1. Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible with the highest threat east. Went with the higher temperature guidance given recent verification. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward through Wednesday. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
313 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Another hot and humid day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme across the area.
453 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and more troughing across the ern U. There is also a ridge across the Rockies. Then, a low pressure wave tracking from the Northern Plains and passing across Lower MI Wed night will bring increasing easterly winds Tue evening thru Wed. Winds will then diminish Wed night/Thu as high pressure builds into the Upper Lakes.
Closer to home, the upper level flow is light and dominated by weak high pressure. At the surface, high pressure continues to be in control across the Southern Appalachians. However, there is small chance for an isolated afternoon shower or storm in the higher terrain where there could be some weak orographic lift. Upper level height rises are forecast today as a weak and rather flat ridge extends across the region. Expect highs will be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The diffuse front will continue to linger over the area today while Bermuda high pressure ridges in from the Western Atlantic. The highest moisture will remain east with precipitable water values at 1. Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible with the highest threat east given relatively high precipitable water values. Went with the higher temperature guidance given recent verification. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward through Wednesday. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
302 AM MST Tue Jul 11 2017 Near normal temperatures are expected through the week as high pressure remains positioned over the Great Basin. Thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain and parts of the lower deserts of south-central and southwest Arizona each day. While convection wasn't particularly widespread, the resultant outflow may be enough to at least slightly work over the air mass across the lower deserts for today. Still quite a bit of model spread as to what type of development will occur across the Mogollon Rim, but there is some indication from the NSSL-WRF ARW and experimental HRRR models that isolated thunderstorms could redevelop late afternoon and evening and even reach the lower deserts, despite westerly low-level winds.
129 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and more troughing across the ern U. There is also a ridge across the Rockies.