Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS COMING TO FRUITION. THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
1043 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE 2ND IS PUSHING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL PROVIDING LIFT.
WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SCOURING THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST. AND WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
1033 MB high pressure over central Texas and ridging into southeast IL is providing a nice sunny afternoon to much of central and southeast IL east of the IL river. These clouds associated with a weak short wave trof moving into central IA. This trof will sweep eastward across central/northern IL late this afternoon and into this evening and bring this band of clouds over areas mainly along and north of I-72 into this evening. Weak upper level ridging will build across the central portion of the country on Friday bringing tranquil weather to central Illinois with afternoon temperatures forecast to be close to where they should be for the first week of February, from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s far southeast Illinois.
315 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, A SMALL PORTION OF WHICH MAY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.
324 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE STATE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BRINGING THE UPPER FLOW TO NORTHWEST. COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST OF THESE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO FORM OFF THE GA COAST.
245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 A weak, dry front will quickly move through the CWA this morning, followed by a high pressure area that will dominate the weather through the rest of the day. Winds will be westerly through most of the period, but become light and variable by late this afternoon as high pressure ridge sets up over the area.
High pressure over the region with mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. A start of a strong ridge of high pressure will be building over the region for Saturday to bring the region warmer than normal temperatures.
PESKY CLD CVR SLOW TO ERODE WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING EWD ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM ADVT COMPONENT TO THE FLW WKNG WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS HWVR DRIER AIR IS ENTRAINING AND SUSPECT W/SUNDOWN WRN/CNTRL AREAS WILL CLR OUT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SC DECAYS. STG NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NW BC TO CREST WRN RIDGE AND SIGNALS BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE QUITE A SIG DOWNSTREAM WRN US RIDGE/ERN US TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EVENT HEADING INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. OTRWS PEAKING LL THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS SYS WILL FOSTER ABV NORMAL TEMPS SAT-MON TO WELL BLO NORMAL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WORKS SWD ACRS THE ERN US. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CIGS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS NOTED BY UPSTREAM OBS OVER WISCONSIN AND NW ILLINOIS.
IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT WILL TREND HIGHER TOWARDS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LEE TROF REDEVELOPS. WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST EARLY SATURDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
/UPDATE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS EAST OF AUSTIN/ EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED A DOWNWARD TWEAK IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A DRY AIRMASS.
/ISSUED 232 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EWD WILL SEE HEIGHTS AND INCREASES INCREASE AS WELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES FROM VERY WARM WEDNESDAY TEMPS.
1029 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF NM WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY THANKS TO A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE LOW LYING AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. UNDER FULL MIXING HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN NORTON COUNTY TO THE LOW/MID 70S IN TRIBUNE AND LOETI. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST.
1249 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.
MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5 TO 10 MPH. AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH TEMPS NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT. DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES STILL DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20 PERCENT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL SUPPRESSED AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOW WATER ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP OVERNIGHT THE NORMAL TIDAL CYCLE SHOULD RETURN AND LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK TOWARD NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
402 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOURCE OF LIFT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
After a brief lull in pcpn tmrw, another lobe of vorticity rounding the base of the mean long wave trof will squeeze out more snow showers Wed night. Temps remain below freezing thru the bulk of the extended, although southwest counties will rise above for Highs on Thursday. Wind chills tmrw morning at school bus time will be within a couple or three degrees either side of zero for most of FA, tad warmer south/west but still single digits.
255 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK.
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IS NOW FULLY ESTABLISHED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
828 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
Will be interesting to see if salt put down yesterday will still be effective given temps in the low 20s, or if traffic has already removed most of it. Weak high pressure will settle into the Midwest/Ohio Valley regions on Thursday, bringing dry and chilly conditions.
929 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SW AR. THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND SW FOR WED AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STACKED TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN LOCALLY TODAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS PLACED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS. AM EXPECTING THAT SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF OF THE LAKE WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME SORT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT. MEDIUM ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING.
315 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the western conus. On Thursday, a cold front is expected to move into the area resulting in slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures.
443 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BUT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS LOWER.
Winds will turn around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS will deamplify a bit through the end of the week. and the increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge to expand east over the region. expect highs 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday. Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday.
847 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday, with dry and mild conditions.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT COAST. IT APPEARS THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT. YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN U.
High pressure will remain over the region but will gradually weaken the next couple of days. Temperatures have been trending cooler with higher dewpoints this evening as well.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WILL THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
250 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY.
333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 H5 WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHARPENING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW/RAIN AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW AND ONLY INVADES THE DGZ FOR A SHORT WHILE.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAUSING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE THROUGH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM GULF.
246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES. /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER NEVADA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN U. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
335 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into the southeastern U. Highs should reach from the upper teens along the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield- Effingham-Lawrenceville. Deep trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well below freezing into the weekend.
1116 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK WITHIN THE TROUGH.
NORTH WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS COULD SEE WLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER AREAS OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY WEST OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON.
320 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE REINFORCING THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION BEGINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A cold low pressure system continues to dig along the west coast resulting in chilly conditions, as well as continuous showers for southwest Montana and the Continental Divide this morning.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DRIVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ENVELOPE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A LARGE BUT WEAK 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA.
UPPER RIDGE SPANS CENTRAL U. HEAT CONTINUES TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO EASTERN IOWA.
FORECAST LOWS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THERE IS A REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WOBBLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
220 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH LABOR DAY.
UPPER LOW ALONG THE WA COAST AT 09Z STILL MOVING SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS.
AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN TO UNDERGO TRANSITION THIS PERIOD WITH COOLER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TOWARD END OF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LWR MI WHICH IS MAINLY A WEAKNESS IN THE MASSIVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS RISE TODAY OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. THE MAXES WILL PROBABLY STAY A FEW DEGS F COOLER AS WELL. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT STILL MAKES LOWER CLOUDS /BELOW 8H/ BUT IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WILL KEEP IT MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP MAXES SHORT OF GFS-MOS GUIDANCE.
500 MB RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING ITS HOLD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
RESULTED IN SLIGHT BUMP UP FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
158 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFITING SOUTH OFF THE FL EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY.
THE COOLEST SPOTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 60S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE LOW 70S. STAGNANT LATE SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGING THAT WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF RENEGADE CELLS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
BUT LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW.
322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
103 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH. WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 408 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ Ridge of high pressure aloft will remain in control of things through the holiday weekend with a near persistence forecast continuing.