Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAKES WATERS. CURRENT LAKE WATER READINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH.
TEMPS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY! NO QUICK REBOUND WARM UP TODAY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. COLD AIR BEGAN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT OF THE REGION TODAY. JMS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15MPH WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THIS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE LOWER LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS MORNING. COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL MODIFICATION THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH COMES IN. THE TROUGH HAS CLOUDS NEAR 40/130 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT NO PCPN WILL FALL AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. THE TROUGH IS NOT THE BIG ONE THAT WILL AFFECT US MIDWEEK. THE MODELS THEMSELVES ARE TRENDING ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER MONDAY EVEN AS CLOUDS COME IN. AND PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS WELL.
A minor sfc trof is progged to glance off the nrn half of the region. The pattern will go slack again Mon night under general high pressure at the sfc. By late Tue, on the backside of high pressure, the low level flow will take on a srly component, with a rather dry fetch originating from the Atlantic. An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest late Monday is forecast to dig into the wrn Rockies by mid week. The low will may slow to a crawl though. as high pressure tries to hold on over the sern U.
THE LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS AGAIN A TRICKY ONE. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA OVER COLD AND DAMP GROUND.
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A DEVELOPING CYCLONE COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 41. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THOUGH 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
Temps currently around freezing, and fairly uniform across the area thanks to abundant low clouds and a mixy boundary layer in the NW flow. Winds will diminish as the day progresses, but given typical biases in this pattern will go on the low end of guidance for today's max temps, generally in the mid/upper 30s.
320 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.
231 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES ALREADY RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS FOR TODAY.
352 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
Warm front current across the eastern Dakotas is pushing eastward, tightening the pressure gradient over us and causing a decent southerly wind. Have leaned more toward the NAM MOS guidance up there with lows in the lower 20s, but temperatures over the whole CWA should not move a whole lot overnight.
1254 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES ALREADY RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS FOR TODAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FM ONTARIO THRU THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND RIDGING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE.
130 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT RECORD HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1201 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 The coldest night of the season so far is underway early this morning, with 2 AM temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Breezy southwest winds will continue through mid week, along with a corresponding increase in daytime highs as high pressure pushes into the Mid Atlantic.
Much warmer temperatures were noted this afternoon as breezy southwesterly winds overspread the area.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
The ridge axis will progress east of IL by 18z/Noon, allowing for surface winds to become southerly this afternoon. Typically that means slightly warmer high temps, but the new snow cover will keep temps a tick below potential due to insolation going into melting the snow instead of sensible heating. So a combination of snow pack and cloud cover will limit highs north of I-74 to at or just below freezing today.
942 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MONDAY THE BROAD RIDGE IS OVERHEAD BRINGING FURTHER WARMING TO THE SLOPES WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN NESTLED IN THEIR INVERSIONS.
BREEZY N TO NE WINDS WITH CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST COUNTIES BY ONSHORE WINDS/WARMER SHELF AND GULF STREAM WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WED INTO THU WITH 00Z GFS INDICATING A STRONG HIGH CENTER OFF THE NE MARITIMES THU MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST AT KPDT AND KALW CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS.
AS INITIALLY SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES AND. A TRANSITION FROM A DRY NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BY TUE EVENING THE RESULT OF A PROGRESSIVE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AS THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES DOMINATE TONIGHT. WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHIFT EWD AS THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL TO MOVE FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID STATE MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE MORE OF AN ISOLATED SHWR POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM OUR N TRY TO WORK INTO THE MID STATE.
245 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER OUR CWA TODAY. TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THIS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE STARTING TIME FOR THE WARNING IS STAGGERED DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN ONSET OF FREEZING TEMPS. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN. THE COOLEST TEMPS BEING IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO THE EASTWARD SHIFTING HIGH PRESSURE.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. NW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND SFC TROF THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS. WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH MONDAY. WITH SE WINDS INCREASING AS LEE TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER FOR MID WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THOUGH REMAINING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
1235 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A DEVELOPING CYCLONE COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 41. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THOUGH 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
231 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE LARGE SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LEE TROUGH FROM SK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH THERMAL RIDGE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
345 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S BY THANKSGIVING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK ALONG WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS; RIP CURRENTS A CONCERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT A SARASOTA TO CAPE CANAVERAL LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF FAR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SHOWER COVERAGE IS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS RUNS DO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN 50S WEST OF THE LAKE! DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S THEN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
AND WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER MINIMUMS. VARIOUS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOSED LOW EITHER LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST US. THE TWO SPECIFIC GFS MEMBERS WITH THE CLOSED LOW BRING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SIMLIAR TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND/OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE WEEKEND. NEAR MORNING HIGH PRESSURE MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
555 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG 500-MB ANTICYCLONE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD REGIONS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXIST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH -- AND POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE TO REFLECT THIS.
545 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP AND ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
403 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. THOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT ALSO START TO RISE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE CENTRAL US RIDGE AXIS. CONTINUED MOISTENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOWS MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
653 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. NW FLOW WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN THE CONTINUED PULL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/ DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD 850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA TNGT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN BY WEDS MRNG.
THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA.
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS RETREATING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADS EAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED.
404 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT STEADY AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN BACKDROP FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THROUGH THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT GREATER STABILITY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
346 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS.
A strong upper ridge currently centered over the southern Plains will gradually shift eastward through the short term, becoming more established over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. However, given the warmer H7 temps from mid level subsidence and overall weak mid level lapse rates not expecting coverage to exceed 20-30% (that may be generous). Left a 20% pop in for Tuesday, but think the main story will be the warmer and muggy conditions. Looking for highs mostly in the upper 80s NE to low 90s SW combined with dew points in the low and mid 70s.
HIGH PRESSURE. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF M-32 WITH EVEN E UPPER GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO THE RH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30% RANGE.
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER THE NWRN GOM. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH OVERHEAD TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. AFORMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST BEGINNING WEDNEDSAY AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
442 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO OKLAHOMA BY 00Z TUESDAY. MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECTING STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LT/VRBL WIND FIELD ACRS THE AREA WITH A WEAK TROF ACRS THE NERN GULF WITH HIGH PRES FURTHER SW OVER THE WRN GULF INTO SE TX. THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CNTRD OVER NRN TX/SRN OK.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 MAY EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS WORKING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE FAR S-SW CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH THE EXPANSE OF THE FEATURE HAS BROADENED SOMEWHAT. A TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS THATNKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST NOTABLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DOES NOT SHIFT AS FAR TO THE EAST AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE RIDGE DOES NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH EITHER. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE CHALLENGE AS IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT. THE LACK OF BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
628 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A A DEEP TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH TWO VORT MAXES. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. IT WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS WILL EXIST TODAY RANGING FROM 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 90S EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST, AND RIDGING WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. THE COOLER CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE BUT A MEMORY AS A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS TODAY.
621 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA /NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES.
303 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SIT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BRINGING DRY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK.
Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. That being said, think we will at least see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this afternoon in the lower 70s. Highs will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values in the 102-109 range.
For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
HEDGED CLOSER TO THE LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PERIODIC RIPPLES AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY CYCLONE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY MEANING A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. WHICH LOOKS TO BE WEAK/BACKED ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ILLINOIS NORTH SHORE LAKE BREEZE TO KEEP THOSE AREAS A BIT COOLER WHILE ELSEWHERE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CORN-FED DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S.
149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.