Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA. BRO RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
424 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
122 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE IA/MO/IL BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACCOMPANYING THAT RIDGE AXIS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX NORTHWARD INTO MN. THAT WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS /WHILE NOT STRONG/ ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT HAVE HELP TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RISE NICELY. MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR/IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.
THESE WARM TEMPS WILL RESULT FROM A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING.
235 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOUISIANA GENERATING PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. SOME FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE MAKING AREA ROADWAYS SLICK. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS 1000 TO 500 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH TROUGH PASSAGE IS 50 PERCENT AT BEST.
OTHER VALLEY AREAS WERE A BIT COOLER WITH L30S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MODEST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WYOMING.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REGAINS CONTROL BUY AFTERNOON. BROKEN CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5K FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 56/GDG A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 344 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015/ WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW LEE TROUGHING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTH AND EAST.
1138 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 917 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015/ THE LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE VIEW INDICATED LOW CLOUDS (AT THE MOMENT ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD ~3KFT AGL) FORMING ACROSS THIS REGION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES. MAINLY DOWN IN THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS. STAYED WITH A COOLER WEST/WARMER EAST GRADIENT WE HAVE GOING NOW.
AS A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR. TUESDAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LEADS TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S. COULD SEE TEMPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WED. ESPECIALLY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE FRI. RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
CLOUDIER AND COOLER TODAY. THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. WEAK-ISH CLOSED UPPER LOW IS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH INDIANA/OHIO. I/VE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER WHAT I INHERITED AND THEY COULD BE EVEN WARMER ANYWHERE THAT DOES SEE SOME SUN.
INCLUDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING STARTING AT 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING ARLINGTON. ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES THROUGH. THE HIGHER WINDS AND A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT OVER MOSTLY THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING. INCLUDED CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY (CHEYENNE) IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 60 KTS AT 2- 3 THOUSAND FEET AGL.
409 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS HAS TRAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS LED TO DENSE CLOUD COVER IN THE LOWEST 10KFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INCH TO THE EAST HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVERHEAD ARE MAKING IT TOUGH TO SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
343 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY.
Overnight temperatures will be a bit warmer, with lows mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
WV imagery shows yesterday's trough moving thru the upper MS valley, leaving more or less zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Yesterday's front turned out to be weaker than anticipated, but even warmer temps are anticipated over the next few days as sfc winds veer to the SW-W, downslope warming kicks in, and soils continue to dry out. Temps this week should peak Thu/Fri ahead of the next trough, w/afternoon temps in the 70s most locations.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE SIOUXLAND AREA AND WILL CROSS IA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLY WINDS. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALREADY STARTING BEHIND MS VALLEY THERMAL TROUGH.
414 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
325 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW AL WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG AND WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL HOLD ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
1002 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT MOST AREA TERMINALS AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s across most of West Central Texas, except across much of the Big Country where mid to upper 30s are forecast. A series of weak cold fronts, during the work week, will do little to cool temperatures closer to seasonal normals.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ALONG WITH AT LEAST BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP UP LOWS INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE ONLY THING THIS PATTERN WILL DO IS ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
Although a weak frontal boundary will push through western Kansas today, very little change is expected to the general air mass across the high plains. Lows tonight are expected to be down into the lower to mid 30s(F).
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE BEING AFFECTED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE ISLANDS AND ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT (IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT).
1142 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 BROAD 500 MB SHORT WAVED TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MANITOBA AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AT 0530 UTC. WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE LOW CLOUD/FOG AREA IT IS HOPED THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOME. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND MAY EVEN BE A BIT WARMER WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SFC. FREEZING RAIN EARLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPS SHOULD BE INTO THE 40S PERHAPS EVEN WARMER FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NO SNOW.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REGAINS CONTROL BUY AFTERNOON. 56/GDG A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY.
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. /ISSUED 156 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015/ WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL AND STABLE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEEP DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AS I WRITE THIS THE INCOMING ECMWF LOOKS LIKE IT IS DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV HAS DRAGGED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH DRIER AIR AND ACYC COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING AOB 0. EXPECT THAT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 30S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 25 KNOT WINDS IS EXPECTED THU INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SEASONAL TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BY TUE. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET THIS FAR OUT IS CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN.
332 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST AND A RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA.
339 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended south from the northern plains into the central high plains. Since models show some low level warm air advection through the day, have trended temps warmer closer to the MOS guidance. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the lower 30s. Therefore have trended lows cooler thinking the dry airmass will allow temps to drop off. Because of this, have kept min temps in the lower 30s for the most part rather then the mid and upper 20s.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS TNT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
1108 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW.
HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA WITH NO SNOW PACK REMAINING THERE.
255 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY.
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EXIT AROUND/BY SUNRISE. TODAY IS ACTUALLY LOOKING TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION WILL BE CLEARING THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS (SFC. WILL HOLD ON TO THE INHERITED COOLER MAXES NEAR 40 DEGREES BASED ON LIMITED CLEARING/MIXING EXPECTED AND IN LINE WITH LATEST MET GUIDANCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TO THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. APPROACHING UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING A BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 09Z. UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF PA TONIGHT.
Forecast soundings show a strong subsidence inversion over the area associated with the ridge building overhead. Should see clearing/lifting from west to east from late morning into the afternoon as the ridge axis moves through and the wind swings around to the west and then southwest.
320 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO PICK UP ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
248 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA.
Although a weak frontal boundary will push through western Kansas today, very little change is expected to the general air mass across the high plains. Lows tonight are expected to be down into the lower to mid 30s(F). Temperatures will be above normal until a strong cold front passes by December 12th, with highs falling from the 60s to the 40s.
The westward progression of this fog is slowing down quickly as it encounters a low-level ridge axis near the KS/MO state line, and as this ridge axis pushes eastward this morning it will cause the fog to stop its westward progression much further than it currently is, then gradually erode from west to east through the morning. With temperatures below freezing, we're seeing some light icing mainly on cars and decks from this fog. Fortunately ground temperatures are above freezing so that road surfaces are generally OK, but will need to watch for some slick spots on bridges. Passage of the low-level ridge axis to the east later today will bring increasing southerly flow, and assuming clouds clear out by early afternoon most areas will rise into the middle to upper 50s.
High pressure centered over northwest Missouri with the ridge axis extending north through east central Iowa into Wisconsin. The ridge axis by all models is forecast to shift across our area today. Quite a bit of low cloud cover and areas of fog have been noted along the ridge axis to our west with some of that is starting to edge into our northwest early this morning. Yesterday at this time, the NAM was quite aggressive with the inversion and the depth of the low level moisture trapped underneath it. However, this morning's run was backing off on the depth of the moisture and strength of the low level inversion. Have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a category over most of our area this afternoon, with most of the highs closer to the cooler MET guidance.
1255 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.
FAR EAST WILL ALSO BE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
114 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
111 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SFC WINDS ENOUGH MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
Forecast guidance suggest that overnight lows will fall down to the lower and middle 30s tonight. especially along the Highway 65 corridor and the eastern Ozarks.
A COLD FRONT FROM JACKSON TO NATCHEZ TO LAKE CHARLES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE SOME MIXING FOR BTR.
Precipitation chances make their way into our CWA this afternoon as a short wave pushes/pulls a cold front across the region.
A weak dry cold front will push into the area today but not before temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s across most of the Tri- state region.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BRING DRY WEATHER.
/ISSUED 1002 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015/ THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI UP ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO WI AND ONTARIO. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG SEEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER THE RIDGE. ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN MISSOURI BACK THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF WEAK RIDGING/NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM FOR FREEZING TO OCCUR.
Temperatures may fall to right around the freezing mark so some freezing fog will be possible. Temperatures will range from the lower 50s across central Missouri to the lower 60s across far southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas this afternoon. Late in the week into the weekend an upper level trough will dig into the southwestern U.
327 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY AT KABR /37 DEGREES/ WAS SET RIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DID TREND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NOTED AREAS OF SNOW COVER PER YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED HIGHS.
UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY.
The northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels, on the west side of an upper level trough across the mid MS river valley, will transition to zonal flow. A low amplitude upper trough embedded within the zonal upper level flow will move east across NE.
257 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CAUSING A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF THAT PASSES ACROSS REGION WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLY IN RIVER VALLEYS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT ANOTHER FREEZING FOG SET-UP IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
1137 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO MONDAY.
WV Imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. Temperatures will be above normal until a strong cold front passes by December 12th, with highs falling from the 60s to the 40s.
300 AM CST MON DEC 7 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE KICKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
FORECAST SKEW- TS DO SHOW BOTTOM OF INVERSION LIFTING SOME WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET WARMER DAY BY DAY AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
A MID LEVEL TROF WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
MODELS ARE QUITE OPTIMISTIC IN DISSIPATING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST CONTINUING THAT TREND ESPECIALLY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING EAST. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/ISSUED 937 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING WITH OBSERVED DEW POINTS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF 9 PM CST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IF THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH A PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE AT THE ONSET WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS EACH TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER AS THE WEEK MOVES ON.
BUT MOST SPOTS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY DECEMBER NORMS. LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SPINS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE PUSHING A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HYDRO ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1008 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF POTENTIAL FLOODING.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR GET THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS IN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT CREATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
737 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.