Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
821 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER POP'S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MONTANA WAS PAIRED WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KMOT AFTER 18Z. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT OR GREATER THAN 20 MPH FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
625 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 /00Z TAFS/ Lee trough will develop Monday with south winds gusting over 25 KT by late morning at KABI and KSJT. Sunny skies and light winds will prevail through the remainder of the day with winds becoming southeasterly later this evening as the surface anticyclone slides off to the east. This will intensify a southerly low-level jet late tonight, which will be a primary factor in keeping temperatures warmer than what we experienced this morning. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid/upper 30s for most of the CWA, but some low-lying areas, especially in the northwest Hill Country, may drop to near freezing around sunrise.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THE N-NE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER SEAS. 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
726 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPPER LOW ACROSS TENNESSEE/ALABAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
955 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF H5 TROF. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low moving se across wrn KY this afternoon is generating bands of rain/sleet and wet snow at many locations east of the MS River. Winds and lingering clouds may preclude freezing temps farther n/e.
ISSUED 311 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ONGOING ENHANCEMENT TO THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT INTO LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION /850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO -12C BY MON MORNING/.
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S FRONT IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RENEWED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
1020 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK.
1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
1154 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE BRIEF SPELL OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
ANY CLOUDS COULD STILL PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL AS NEGATE ANY FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT. NOTE THAT MUCH OF NASHVILLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND. BUT OUTLYING PARTS OF DAVIDSON COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY THE SUBURBS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR/BELOW FREEZING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 2 PM CDT WITH LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S.
FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY.
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ILL- DEFINED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS MUCH COOLER AIR STILL LAGGING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS OF 10 PM. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 25 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 34 KNOTS.
747 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE BRIEF SPELL OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
1237 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF H5 TROF. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
Most places should see subfreezing temperatures due to radiational cooling.
LIGHT FREEZE AND PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN THE SHORT TIMEFRAME /ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 HOURS/ IN WHICH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS MAY EVEN TOUCH FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR SUNRISE. GIVEN THE BRIEF NEAR FREEZING POTENTIAL WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MAY GET TO THE FREEZING MARK BY DAY BREAK.
Britt Upper low moving southeast out of forecast area. Byrd A warming trend will begin Monday afternoon as upper level heights rise, low-mid level warm air advection increases leading to warming 850 mb temperatures, and the surface/low level flow becomes southerly/southwesterly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of the region. NAM MOS guidance looks too cool, warmer GFS MOS appears more reasonable.
LIGHT FREEZE AND PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN THE SHORT TIMEFRAME /ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 HOURS/ IN WHICH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR.
IT WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED EVEN AROUND SUNRISE.
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
814 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY. OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACNW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING POPS AND WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MAINLY FOR A BIT MORE WIND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low tracking to the east now up through the Ohio River Valley, with some minor instability sprinkles and flurries in its wake over parts of Central Illinois this afternoon. However, the high pressure ridge axis slowly shifting into the Miss River Valley tonight will result in northerly winds becoming light and increasingly westerly by morning. Concern for temps below freezing, and llvl moisture being enhanced by snow/light showers from last night. For now, will leave the fog mention out, but overnight shift will have to watch closely for clearing gaps in cloud cover as winds will be dropping under the ridge axis. That being said, the temps in the lower 30s/upper 20s is not that far below normal for the second half of March.
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MONTANA WAS PAIRED WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
900 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A COLD FRONT IS LAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A LARGE AND ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE TAKES OVER WHICH WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES BY LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE KEYS AREA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. THE CULPRIT IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF UTAH TONIGHT. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
942 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG ~120 METER H5 FALLS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST LATE. WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO APPROACH FREEZING. DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO RESULT IN DAMAGE TO VEGETATION. IN THE LOW/MID 50S. NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
1011 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE BRIEF SPELL OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. STRONG ~120 METER H5 FALLS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST LATE. WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO APPROACH FREEZING. DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO RESULT IN DAMAGE TO VEGETATION. IN THE LOW/MID 50S. NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
851 PM MST SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BEFORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 910 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LIGHT PCPN (SPRINKLES/FLURRIES) TO END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
900 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE DELMARVA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING MID WEEK. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BCMG MORE FVRBL AS A H5 PRES TROF APPROACHES. PASSAGE OF TROF AXIS LKLY TO BE BTWN 06-12Z. UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE MON NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW TAPPERS OFF AS TROUGH AXIS AND LIFT EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 56 35 66 / 30 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 63 / 60 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 52 33 63 / 40 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 49 30 61 / 20 0 0 0 NC.
/issued 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ Lee trough will develop Monday with south winds gusting over 25 KT by late morning at KABI and KSJT. Sunny skies and light winds will prevail through the remainder of the day with winds becoming southeasterly later this evening as the surface anticyclone slides off to the east. This will intensify a southerly low-level jet late tonight, which will be a primary factor in keeping temperatures warmer than what we experienced this morning. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid/upper 30s for most of the CWA, but some low-lying areas, especially in the northwest Hill Country, may drop to near freezing around sunrise.
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH. BUT THE REAL PUSH OF COOL DRY AIR IS JUST MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 48N AND 143W, WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE 40N PARALLEL.
832 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE HIGH. MOST TEMPERATURES BY DAWN MONDAY WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER BY THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER BY THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low moving se across wrn KY this afternoon is generating bands of rain/sleet and wet snow at many locations east of the MS River. Winds and lingering clouds may preclude freezing temps farther n/e.
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS RUNS PLACED THE JET GENERALLY OVER OUR AREA ALLOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDING LIFT WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ALLOWED MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED WHICH PUSHED THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE JET STREAM FURTHER EAST.
SATELLITE SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO WY. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WED AND THU DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LAWSON ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THRU TUE NGT & LKLY BEYOND AS STRONG UPR-DECK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL RIO GRANDE TO KS & MO CONTS TO DOMINATE.
633 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 UPPER LOW DEPARTS. UPPER LOW BRINGS MOUNTAIN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO GENEROUS ON THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS WITH THIS RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH AXIS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
MAIN AFFECT FROM COLD FRONT WHICH SLIPPED IN TO THE AREA LAST EVENING IS THE EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE A QUICK REBOUND IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN PUSHING INTO THE 80S.
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U. UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ATWELL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING SURFACE WEDGE WILL GET OVERRUN BY THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MIXING SHOULD START TO EAT AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES LESS MOIST ANS SLACKEN AWAY. HOLDING SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE EAST - ESP THE RIDGES IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG BLUE MTN AND SOUTH MOUNTAIN.
626 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
259 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST U.
407 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL MOVE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING EVER PRESENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX/MEXICO WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT OVER THE TOP. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING WAVE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER AL TODAY. THE TROF AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH MS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF SLOWLY DAMPENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER.
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS. MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLC DRIFTS WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE STATE. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OWING MAINLY TO A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AS A RESULT, TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE UNDER CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE EVENING.
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE RIDGES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. WILL KEEP IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVER THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD ALOFT.
This feature looks to be the only notable chance of precip returning to the forecast and at this point the higher chances look to remain north and west of the forecast area. Higher dewpoints will prevail across the area today before sfc ridging strengthens to our east and ushers lower dewpoints into the area for the much of the forecast period.
349 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AT 15-20 KFT LEVEL THAT ARE INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS WILL STILL ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT BOUNDARY LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C WILL BE GOOD TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLYES AND UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NO RAIN FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
229 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MIXING SHOULD START TO EAT AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES LESS MOIST ANS SLACKEN AWAY. HOLDING SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE EAST - ESP THE RIDGES IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG BLUE MTN AND SOUTH MOUNTAIN.
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FORCED BY THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
344 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH AXIS IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH RIDGING FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND DAMPENING WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GAINS STRENGTH TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BORDERING STATES.