Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
408 PM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated little change in the position of the arctic cold front, generally along the east slope of the Laramie Range, with a 30-40 degree east to west temperature gradient. Upgraded the High Wind Watch for Cheyenne to a Warning and included east Platte County beginning at 11 PM late this evening.
703 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 A cold front and area of low pressure will move through the area tonight.
Latest sfc obs show the cold front to the NE of KHOB/KMAF, w/fropa looking to be at KHOB by issuance time. /issued 203 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Upper pattern has a broad trough extending from from Great Lakes down the Mississippi valley with an upper ridge centered off the coast of CA. As this trough slowly moves east look for zonal flow to set up across the country with mild wx expected.
However, temperatures will quickly go back the other way this evening as a cold front moves through the region.
Winds are increase from the north as a new cold front moves south.
A weak cold front will move through tonight, resulting in cooler high temperatures tomorrow. Shower activity continues tonight as a weak cold front passes quickly through the region.
730 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Low pressure will be moving farther away from the forecast area tonight. The pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend trough the area Monday night.
There may be a few snow showers over the high mountains right now. Highlight for snow in the high mountains looks to be on track. The models indicate weak mid level qg ascent overnight as an embedded short wave trough passes across Wyoming. NAM12 spatial cross-sections the moisture deepening in the high country overnight with strong westerly winds. On Monday, moisture depth increases in the mountains as a strong trough embedded in the flow aloft moves into northern Colorado by late afternoon. This cold front will push into the Urban Corridor from the northeast after 21z. Expect primarily rain showers to develop from northeast to southwest as the cold front pushes into the cwa, with a rain/snow mix possible by 5 pm.
920 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Cold front analyzed over northern Florida will continue to work its way toward the area and push through overnight tonight. Delayed onset of lower ceilings from previous TAF forecast, but gradually decreasing ceilings will be the trend this evening and tonight from north to south with cold front moving through the area. The cold front departs (southward) the southern marine legs during the morning with a few remnant showers also coming to an end.
935 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Low pressure will be moving farther away from the forecast area tonight. The pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend trough the area Monday night.
344 PM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 Northwest flow aloft continues as the main axis of the upper trough pushes through the Midwest. Center of arctic high pressure has pushed southeast of the CWA with return flow just setting up. Cooler air will slide back in from the north. Two inches or less of snow is expected with the highest amounts over northwest South Dakota. Models indicating the potential for some very light freezing rain around portions of northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills area late tonight as 850mb temps above freezing push in. Any freezing rain will quickly turn to snow by 12z as the colder air moves back in. Warmer temps will push in toward the second half of the week.
An update was issued to increase POPs to categorical levels with the crossing cold front. Still about an inch of accumulation anticipated given progression with additional concern for residual water freezing on roads. The cold front will dramatically sweep the region tonight accompanied by snow showers and wind gusts near 30 mph. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average on Monday with dry conditions under building high pressure.
735 PM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 High pressure will continue to affect the southwest with well above normal temperatures this week. The SW Conus remains under the same basic pattern of the past several days: weak NW flow and anomalously high heights on the downstream side of an east Pacific anti-cyclone. Latest runs of the operational GFS continue to suggest a trough will close off across the region resulting in widespread ascent along with higher precipitation chances and lower temperatures. The models show a series of short waves (some of them very weak) tracking through the Interior West this week as they slide down the eastern side of the ridge.
with up to 3 inches possible in the higher elevations in southwest Virginia and east Tennessee. Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 48 35 55 / 10 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 44 30 50 / 20 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 28 44 31 50 / 20 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 40 27 48 / 50 10 0 20 TN.
547 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Atmosphere is well dried out by the chilly area of high pressure settling through eastern NE this afternoon. Frontal lift should result in some fairly quick saturation starting about 09z into the western Missouri River locations, expanding through southeast SD and the lower Missouri River valley toward the morning rush. There is some indication of a small negative EPV reservoir along the southern edge of the saturation area, which could indicate potential that band may tend to shift/contract toward the warmer side a bit more than expected, which could enhance amounts a bit more toward highway 20.
A broad area of high pressure was in control across the region this afternoon with mainly sunny skies for most locales. Highs for Monday appear on track so only made a few minor tweaks warmer in the St.
We do have a swath of 1-3 inches forecast along a line from Norfolk to the Omaha area, with the highest amounts up to 3" in portions of west central IA from Monona to Shelby counties. Another cold night Monday night with high pressure again moving overhead, when lows drop into the single digits mostly, but should dip below zero in northeast NE to west central IA where the fresh snow just occurred.
631 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Low pressure will be moving farther away from the forecast area tonight. The pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend trough the area Monday night.
411 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Atmosphere is well dried out by the chilly area of high pressure settling through eastern NE this afternoon. Frontal lift should result in some fairly quick saturation starting about 09z into the western Missouri River locations, expanding through southeast SD and the lower Missouri River valley toward the morning rush. There is some indication of a small negative EPV reservoir along the southern edge of the saturation area, which could indicate potential that band may tend to shift/contract toward the warmer side a bit more than expected, which could enhance amounts a bit more toward highway 20.
A weak cold front is forecast to move southward through the area later tonight, with fog/low stratus and perhaps drizzle dropping ceilings and visibilities to IFR/LIFR. /issued 332 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): A cold front across the Texas/Oklahoma border this afternoon will move through central TX this evening and through south TX tonight before moving into the CWA late tonight. The front appears to stall across northeast Mexico and just offshore the lower TX coast Mon afternoon. Will continue to see some isolated showers across the CWA Mon night before the warm front lifts northward. Believe the bulk of the cold air will remain well to the north of the RGV tonight into Monday but will go at least of couple of degrees cooler than the MOS temperatures tonight into Monday.
Canadian high pressure moving south into the area will keep chilly temperatures in place. For tonight, an area of low pressure moving southeast out of Wyoming will spread light snow across the southwest CWA. A persistent upper trough will remain in place over the Plains. Arctic high pressure at the sfc will be interspersed with periodic weak low pressure, clipper-type systems.
The cold front will dramatically sweep the region tonight accompanied by snow showers and wind gusts near 30 mph. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average on Monday with dry conditions under building high pressure.
Lows will drop into the lower 40s to around 50 tonight.
305 PM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated little change in the position of the arctic cold front, generally along the east slope of the Laramie Range, with a 30-40 degree east to west temperature gradient. Upgraded the High Wind Watch for Cheyenne to a Warning and included east Platte County beginning at 11 PM late this evening.
IFR/MVFR conditions will remain across the TAF sites through 03-04Z before a cold front moves through the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 48 35 55 / 10 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 44 30 50 / 20 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 28 44 31 50 / 20 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 40 27 48 / 50 10 0 20 TN.
It will be a beautiful last full day of spring, with high pressure in control. Jaszka High pressure will drift east across the region today and tonight for dry conditions with relatively light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Upper level ridge which has been anchored over the SW US briefly amplifies with axis shifting east across the Northern Rockies and MT tonight. Upper level ridge flattens/breaks down late Tuesday in response to an upper trough moving onto the BC coast with a 100+kt upper level jet nosing inland along the US/Canadian border Tuesday and Tuesday night.
On Tuesday, upper level ridge expands eastward as the trough over the Midwest continues to move to the east. The modestly cooler and more moist airmass, which has covered the plains and much of the eastern mountains, will move to the east. Warmer weather with lower humidities will cover the eastern mountains and much of the plains on Tuesday with highs approaching or exceeding 100 over portions of the plains. Winds will be light in this warmer airmass. Hot through Mid Week with Cooler Air expected for the Weekend.
Additional showers are possible over the region on Tuesday due to the combination of lingering moisture and diurnal heating (cool air aloft)as the uppr trough remains over the region. A mid level short wave moves through the region during the overnight period in advance of the upper level trough axis.
This current mini heat wave will temper somewhat tomorrow with temperatures forecast to be around 5 degrees cooler than today.
304 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Water vapor imagery and RUC analysis reveals mid-upper level pattern with a ridge over the western CONUS and broad trough into the central CONUS including the Great Lakes region. Given the fairly weak instability combined with minimal deep layer shear expect only small hail with stronger storms into early this evening despite lower freezing levels of 8-9 kft. Overall, temperatures will warm back to near normal for this time of year by the middle of the week, and then trend a bit cooler for this weekend.
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Deep northwesterly flow across the Upper Midwest with upper troughing over the Great Lakes will continue early this week bringing seasonably cool high temps in the 60s and 70s through Tuesday with lows in the 50s. As this system passes to the east on Tuesday, weak ridging will build into the region with drier weather expected for later Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night may drop into 40s under the ridge axis, especially across central Wisconsin.
122 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 After the cold front crosses today, an upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek. Few showers and storms are already developing closer to the lake shore early this afternoon as the upper trough and cooler temperatures aloft advect over the southern Great Lakes.
An upper level trough currently draped along a line from the Great Lakes to around central Georgia.
Synoptic scale forcing will be very weak, as the ridge centered near the Four Corners will be the main feature. At the surface, a lee trough will slide out of northeast Colorado and be near an Oberlin to Tribune line by 21z.
A 925mb thermal ridge will nudge into the southwest part of the state with warm air advection across the region.
The Northland will remain under the influence of a large, vertically-stacked area of low pressure over eastern Canada. This low, which is over northeast Ontario as of early this morning, will lift into western Quebec this afternoon. Highs will range from the low 60s near the Canadian border into the inland Arrowhead, to the middle and upper 60s across the rest of the forecast area. High pressure will build into the Northland Tuesday. The more plentiful sunshine will make for a warmer day. High pressure will bring dry weather to the Northland on Tuesday night, as we remain in northwest flow aloft.
Rain totals will be on the low side except for under the stronger echoes. Overnight winds will lighten and where skies clear out the possibility for some patchy fog will develop especially over areas that receive the higher amounts of rain.
255 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure from the northern Rockies to the Central Plains. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Great Lakes region, with high pressure over the Four Corners region. Ridge extends north-northwest of the high across the intermountain west. Some warmer air will continue to build into the area through Tuesday, with highs tomorrow in the 80s to around 90 degrees. However, a weak frontal boundary will try and slip south into at least far northwest SD late tonight and early Tuesday, with slightly cooler temps expected across this area. This front will slide back northeast of the CWA as a warm front later Tuesday as a pacific cold front moves across the Rockies.
A strong ridge of high pressure building in from the southwestern CONUS is responsible for the string of above normal temperatures and the heat wave shows no sign of slowing down as the high remains stagnant for the next few days.
Drier air will continue to advect into the Mid-South today in the wake of a weak cold front. A weak cold front is situated roughly along the I-40 corridor. Scattered showers continue along and in advance of the front with temps generally in the lower 70s. The weak cold front will continue SE across the area. Dewpoints will drop into the low 60s in the Memphis area this afternoon.
Additional activity should develop in the upstate late this afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will again rise to the lower 90s. Overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 70s. Locally heavy rain will be a threat given the high PW with any persistent slow moving or training cells. Daytime highs will only be in the lower 80s at most locations due to cloud cover, with lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s to around 70.
have tweaked temps down a degree or two over these locations with forecast highs in the low/mid 80s.
526 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Went ahead and included iso PoPs for the next 6 hours on the Plateau and Rio Grande Plains with the inverted trough continuing to push southwest over the area. Also tweaked hourly T grids to account for cooler temperatures over the Austin and surrounding areas due to earlier rainfall.
An upper ridge centered over the southwestern United States will build eastward Tuesday.
An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop in the vicinity of the triple- point with more spotty shower development possible along the warm front as it drifts northward before stalling out just south of Interstate-80.
An upper ridge will maintain dry weather conditions into Tuesday. A cold front approaching will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms near the CWA late Tuesday afternoon but this activity is expected to hold off until after the short term period.
307 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwesterly flow continues to prevail over the region this afternoon as a closed low hovers north of Michigan and ridging builds across the West.
Upper troughing will continue to keep temperatures a bit suppressed for the next couple of days before upper ridging arrives to bring more warmth. This trough will also keep some low chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for this afternoon into early tonight for parts of the area and then again tomorrow afternoon.
/issued 1019 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ Showers dissipating quickly this morning in advance and in the wake of a slow moving cold front which as of 15z was located just to the north of the I-20 Corridor. As a result, much of our region missed out on the expected rainfall and this will likely hamper the possibility of further development this afternoon along the cold front as it moves south of the I-20 Corridor.
Tropical low pressure is forecast to lift northward toward the central or west-central Gulf of Mexico into the afternoon hours.
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek. Few showers and storms are already developing closer to the lake shore and over western Ohio as the upper trough and cooler temperatures aloft advect over the southern Great Lakes. There are timing differences amongst the model guidance with this wave, so nothing more than low chance PoPs, with a focus closer to the upper trough.
With the weak sfc trof dropping thru the area associated with the s/w generating the SHRA, a weak and messy sfc wind flow is expected tonight. Expect tomorrow to be slightly warmer compared to today as sfc winds become more wly to swly despite NW flow aloft. The 850mb thermal ridge will also build into the region with temps 2 to 4C warmer. Have therefore trended aoa the warmer guidance on Tues. An upper trof and associated sfc cdfnt will drop into nrn portions of the CWA late Tues afternoon.
The warming trend will continue today, as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure dominates the weather pattern for much of the western United States. After a very warm afternoon inland, thermal low pressure is expected to shift east across the Cascades, allowing a strong push of marine air inland tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front may bring some light rain or drizzle Tuesday morning to the northern half of the area.
Short and medium range models are in decent agreement that an upper level ridge of high pressure will situate itself over the southwest states through most of this week while an upper level trof of low pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern states.
228 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today.
Can see a trough axis over southwest WI on water vapor imagery.
At the surface, high pressure was in control, with abundant low level moisture pushed well to the south across Texas. In time, this low level moisture will start to pull back north as the high shifts east and a lee trough develops at the surface. Lee trough convergence will become better defined late afternoon tomorrow. 6km AGL winds out of the northwest 35-40 knots and surface winds out of the south at around 15 knots will yield sufficient deep layer shear for supercell storms along the trough axis.
1203 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the region this morning as a closed low spins south of Hudson Bay and upper ridging builds across the American West. As this occurs, high pressure building into the upper Midwest will send a weak frontal boundary south towards our area, with latest model runs suggesting possible precip development by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will definitely be warmer with upper 80s returning to much of the area.
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today.
307 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front exits the mountains later this afternoon, while an upper disturbance skirts the north.
The first is over the eastern half of the Lower Peninsula and is associated with forcing along the lead edge of the mid-level trough axis. Pattern becomes briefly more progressive as Aleutian low energy releases east and forces a short-lived period of ridging to expand over the central and northern US.
156 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Aviation Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today and Tuesday as cooler air filters into the region.
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will slowly press into our very humid air mass today. The cold front will continue east of the area on Tuesday. Hail threat may end up being as large as today's threat since freezing levels will be lower.
404 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will continue over the region through mid week.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to hold firm across the forecast area for the remainder of today into Tuesday. The ridge axis remains to our west and this combined with some cold air aloft has allowed cu to develop across the area. A strong Pacific front will approach the forecast area during the afternoon and evening, flattening the ridge and bringing a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. The thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain across southwest Montana and move northeast onto the plains late afternoon/early evening. Although dewpoints may be near 50 degrees, a westerly wind may help to downslope the lower levels.
For this period, increased POPs into the low-end likely category for areas mainly north of a line from Dodge Center, MN to Platteville, WI.
On the large scale, the Keys remain between a robust, subtropical anticyclone centered northeast of the service area, and a warm-core, but disorganized cyclone to the immediate west; hence, the strong flow of moist, confluent maritime tropical air. We think the highest rain chances over the next several days will be tonight, and primarily before about 0200 EDT. The potential tropical cyclone (93L) will move steadily north-northwestward, with strong, cyclonic flow waning, and then turning anticyclonic around Tuesday night.
250 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will cross the area this afternoon into the evening. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the middle of the week. As of 2pm, the cold front (based on wind direction) is still over WV. Prefrontal thunderstorms are now just east of the Blue Ridge with a second line over the southern Shenandoah Valley.
07Z water vapor imagery shows northwest flow across the central and northern plains with the mid level ridge over the west coast. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure was over the central plains with the deeper moisture shunted south along the Red River and to the south. Highs today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday based on some weak low level warm air advection. Based on mixing the boundary layer to near 800MB, have highs in the lower and middle 80s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 60s. Some weak southerly winds and warm air moving north is forecast to keep temperatures a little warmer tonight. will still be under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the Great Lakes region.
Further southeast, the disturbance that has been monitored for the past several days has moved into the southern Gulf and advisories are now being issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. 24 The main issue with the forecast this aftn is the upgrade of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 3.
1133 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Strong high pressure across the western US will build eastward and plant its axis over the Four Corners states for the next few days. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s and challenging 100 in the low valleys on Monday, then exceeding 100 and potentially reaching near record temps starting Tuesday.
Then the upper level high pressure system reasserts itself tomorrow, resulting in sunny skies with with highs in the low to mid 90s. (Tonight and Monday) A large upper level ridge will be centered across the Desert Southwest through the end of the work week.