Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Even coastal areas will reach the lower to mid 70s.
an area of rain and freezing rain was moving across eastern Oklahoma with all rain in western Arkansas. The surface freezing line extended from Ottawa through central Delaware Co. Temperatures should climb above freezing by mid afternoon across almost the entire forecast area. The highest chance for continued icing through mid afternoon will be near the KS/OK border and through Osage/Pawnee counties.
Boundary layer temperatures are above freezing, however surface temperatures along and north of a Tarzan to Snyder line have fallen below freezing in many places. Expect surface temperatures to drop to freezing or below as far south as a Tarzan to Big Spring to Colorado City through late tonight as light rain increases in these areas, and wet bulbing occurs with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have decided to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for Dawson and Martin, eastward to Scurry and Mitchell counties, which will last until 14/18Z. Although the ground is warm, a thin layer of ice could accumulate on power lines, trees, and bridges and overpasses.
A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE SUNSHINE STATE. WITH A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL WILL BE KEPT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
818 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND WASHING OUT.
ONCE THE LOWER-LEVELS COOL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING HELP TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF DEL RIO AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL TOMORROW EVENING. UPWARD FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 343 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST LEAVING THE AREA BETWEEN MAJOR PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
Guidance boost highs well up into the mid and upper 90s for most locations, but guidance still has not completely caught on to the wet spring and its slightly cooler temperatures we have seen.
UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO WITH COOL UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WED AND THU.
GENERALLY REDUCED SOME OF THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INITIALLY. A LARGE TROUGH AND SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH INTO UTAH AND COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH (ITS CENTER) WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS WYOMING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO UTAH AND COLORADO.
00Z WATER VAPOR AND HR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SHARP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AND ONLY HAVE THE IMPACT OF SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND COASTAL LEE/CHARLOTTE COUNTIES DUE TO THE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FLOW OFF THE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO HOLD ITS WEST-EAST ORIENTATION SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF INTO AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE HELP OF A 40 KT 850 MB JET. A PIECE IS PROGGED TO STAY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL GUIDE IN THE SYSTEM IN. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT LATE WED.
DUE TO THE HIGHER CHANCES AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN MPX EASTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME SHEARED APART BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD END MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LACKING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
Meanwhile the lower elevations will generally see snowfall accumulating in the grassy and unpaved areas to around 5000ft. Tuesday will be a little warmer, though still quite a bit below normal with popcorn showers proving a good bet during the afternoon.
945 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
Activity along the dryline will continue to move eastward through the CWA this evening as the upper low over the Panhandles shifts eastward. the trof axis of the upper low is forecast to move across the CWA around 06z before lifting off to the northeast. As the low lifts northeast. warmer conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon with highs well into the 80s for much of the region.
757 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
POPS TO RETURN THURS/FRI WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY LATE WEDS WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DOWN THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD SE TX BY LATE THURS. A DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
1244 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF UTAH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS WORKED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOME A BIT NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT INTERACTS BY A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING.
/ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/ TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA HAS ONLY MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S. EVEN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S WE HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO EEK OUT 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOST UNSTABLE. AS THE TROUGH ATTAINS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRANSFER SOME OF THAT ENERGY TO THE SURFACE.
WHICH WERE OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY. ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NNW WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH.
COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
Noticeably warmer. Short high pressure ridge axis passes SW KS around sunrise, with SW flow aloft by afternoon. Strong closed low will be well north of SW KS, in the Dakotas, by afternoon, while the associated cold front approaches the NW zones late in the day. Feel the marginal wind/hail threat will extend down the cold front to include the far SW counties as well, especially through Tuesday evening. Cold front passage expected Tuesday night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring the northern counties closer to the greater lift.
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT. THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE WED NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
923 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
1244 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION.
702 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH NOW INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH. STILL EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL LIFT BROADENS OUT AND THE CLOSED LOW MORPHS INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR SEVERE PARAMETERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS.
ONGOING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND ATTENDANT SOUTHWARD TROFFING. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROF WILL ADVANCE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE FILLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A RATHER STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS HAS PREVAILED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE AREA, BUT WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES A MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST (MAYBE SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH).
1243 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR PHILLIP. AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SD EXITS TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE HIGH TEMP REALIZES ITS POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW.
1107 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CIGS MOVE IN AT CHA AND TYS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. AS TROUGH MOVES IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE.
831 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
A LARGE TROUGH AND SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH INTO UTAH AND COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH (ITS CENTER) WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS WYOMING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO UTAH AND COLORADO.
900 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL.
1017 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
930 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE GOMEX/SW ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS FL OVERNIGHT. KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. CURRENT FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS HI PRES RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLC.
FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WHILE THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE, A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE.
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS IMPACTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WET SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND WARM SUNSHINE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC LIGHTING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPING FORCE FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BELOW 5000 FT MSL. THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ABSORBING THE ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS WITHIN MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND A TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AS TROUGHING ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
742 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
752 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING ON TUESDAY.
1139 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL NEBRASKA DRY. FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH UP INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
913 PM MST MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
701 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH NOW INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH. STILL EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL LIFT BROADENS OUT AND THE CLOSED LOW MORPHS INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR SEVERE PARAMETERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. MODELS PUSH THIS TROUGH FURTHER EWD INTO TUE. IN THE LOW LEVELS. STILL PLEASANTLY COOLING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LOWS BUT KEPT THEM SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CELLS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
922 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING ON TUESDAY.
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT. THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE WED NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER.
THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS CAUSING ANY PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 84 64 86 / 10 40 30 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 80 65 84 / 10 30 50 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 80 65 84 / 10 40 60 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 79 59 81 / 10 30 40 60.
1143 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations show clouds increasing far northwest, just ahead of the cold front, which is currently located from northeast Montana and southeast Saskatchewan. This low level cold front and associated windshift will translate into south central ND around 00z/7pm CDT Sunday. Overall, the forecast remains on track with the main issues being a cold front progressing across the state today and this evening. Highs on Monday will only be in the 50s most areas to the low 60s far southeast. Also expect to see extensive clouds along with and post-front, lasting into Monday night before beginning to clear out over the northwest as high pressure builds over the region.
Overall, the forecast remains on track with the main issues being a cold front progressing across the state today and this evening. Highs on Monday will only be in the 50s most areas to the low 60s far southeast. Also expect to see extensive clouds along with and post-front, lasting into Monday night before beginning to clear out over the northwest as high pressure builds over the region.
1023 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Update High pressure centered over Missouri will track up the Ohio Valley today and into Monday.
Mild day expected ahead of approaching cold front. Warm advection continues during the day with thermal ridge axis over the fa during the afternoon. From Satellite imagery could see a break in the high level cloudiness which will also help with temperatures along with S-SW-W surface flow. Cold front reaches the NW FA early evening and gets through most of the FA by morning. Cold advection continues Monday in wake of cold front. Convective temperatures remain fairly high during the day so unsure of the degree of cloud cover especially in the lower levels.
926 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Leftover showers behind a cold front will linger over the Western Catskills and parts of the Mohawk Valley this morning. High pressure will build into the area through the day today bringing drier air and fair weather.
1022 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to move through the western Great Lakes today. VFR conditions are likely today and tonight under high pressure. Should see a bit more wind in the lower levels tonight as the high shifts eastward, so even less of a fog threat expected. A high pressure ridge axis is pushing east of the area this morning while low pressure out west gradually drifts toward the region. High Skies should be mostly clear today and tonight under high pressure. Looks like enough of a pressure gradient tonight as the high shifts eastward a bit to limit fog development.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery shows dry air on the backside of the mid-level trof approaching the area from the northwest which could put a crimp on rainfall later. This occurring with heating along with east to southeast progression of mid-level trof now positioned from northeast Louisiana to along the upper Texas coast and extreme western gulf waters. Return to somewhat lower pops for Monday as deeper moisture with aforementioned trof advances east of the area. A cold front has edged into the northwest gulf this morning. The front will wash out on Monday, with a steady easterly flow returning through mid-week between high pressure ridging across the southeast Conus and weak low pressure advancing slowly west across the central gulf.
Strong cold front has moved through Great Falls with timing looking to be in the Billings area around 330 PM. Compressional warming ahead of the front will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 80s central and east. A strong cold front is evident on IR imagery tonight near the Canadian border. Forecast totals look fairly similar to the previous forecast with 6-8 inches likely over the highest ranges. Skewed the PoP chances on Monday toward the high-res guidance which indicates some precip might linger a bit longer into the afternoon across much of the area. Low temp guidance for Monday night has also trended downward with this package, temps should be in the 30s region wide with 20s over the high terrain.
946 AM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A cold front has passed through the northern portion of the CWA with a northerly switch of winds and cooler temps. A Canadian cold front will continue to move south across the area today.
1258 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A large area of high pressure over the Mid Mississippi valley will will move across the lower lakes today and then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday.
As a strong upper level trough is moving into the PacNW, it is pushing a cold front through as well. Cooler temps will follow tomorrow and be with us most of the week. A dry cold front will precede the arrival of the upper trough, situated over Western Canada.
With gradients trending a millibar or so onshore today highs should be a few degrees cooler with a slighly stronger and earlier afternoon sea breeze.
1059 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, AND A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
A weak cold front that has moved across S TX this morning has resulted in sct shra's and isol tsra's across mainly the southern portions of the CWA. Temps are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler today and tonight, then warmer once again Mon.
The main wx story this morning is the sunny Sunday ahead, with cooler temperatures and low humidity. The cold front that moved through our area with strong to severe thunderstorms last evening was located along the Appalachians, down to central AL/MS. Dry high pressure, centered over the Mid MS Valley, was pushing into TN. The high pressure center will move across the Ohio Valley today, continuing to push dry air our way with north northeast breezes around 10 mph. Highs will be mostly in the lower 80s. With water surface temperatures still in the low to mid 80s, patchy late night fog can be expected over lakes and rivers.
The day is beginning quiet enough, but the surface analysis, along with radar echoes, is picking up a cold front stretching across the International Border. this cold front will plunge south through Northeast Montana through the day.
1011 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A cold front will cross the region today and high pressure will build in behind the front tonight. High pressure will settle offshore south of New England on Monday.