Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
206 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 08z surface analysis had a weak trough moving across the CWA.
307 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over the region will provide fair weather conditions to central Illinois through the day today. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s.
In return, moisture transport is beginning to increase across central Kansas as sfc dewpoints are progged to reach the low 70s by late afternoon.
/issued 306 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) The short term forecast remains dry, with temperatures warmer than those usual for mid September. Comparing current temperatures to temperatures yesterday, at this time, it's clear: cooler air has moved into West Central Texas. Thus, lows tonight should be a little cooler than lows this morning. As for highs Saturday, numbers close to guidance, but warmer than usual mid September highs, look reasonable. Other than minor temperature adjustments, the forecast continues with temperatures warmer than those usual for mid September, through at least mid week.
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 500 mb low moving east thru central Saskatchewan with a short wave trough into western ND at 07z. This short wave trough will move into eastern ND midday and into Minnesota this aftn.
358 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Another nice day today with temperatures topping out in the low to middle 80s along with a nice southerly breeze under mostly sunny skies. This trough is expected to kick off a line of storms extending from southwest Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska by this evening. Southerly winds will help advect warmer temperatures northward, especially across Kansas, where temperatures will climb into the 90s. On the other hand, the midlevels look to moisten up quite well as the low level jet increases moisture transport across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, an upper level low spinning over the central Gulf has created an area of persistent convection on its eastern flank approximately 80-100 miles off our coast. The southwest flow from this low has helped to shear Humberto thus far, keeping most of the rain/winds to the north and east of the center. With the development of the low-level circulation farther east, along with a weakening in the ridge, the system is expected to stay away from the Peninsula with no direct impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida.
Its gradual eastward drift with time does allow return flow southerlies to develop by early next work week, but it retains its ridge across the heart of the PAH FA thru the period. At the same time, we'll see upper heights wobble more or less around 592 DM at the H5 level, with an upper High pressure circulation center developing over Arkansas.
Showers mainly across northern portions of the region tonight from a warm front.
1220 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 It will be dry and cooler tonight and Saturday. Saturday morning lows will be in the 50s and afternoon high temperatures will range from the middle 70s in south central Lower Michigan to the lower 80s into west central Indiana.
Near the surface, a prevailing southerly flow will support increased moisture across central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) ahead of an advancing trough axis out of eastern Colorado. South- southwesterlies will enhance warm air advection a little today resulting in highs reaching the lower/mid 90s(F) this afternoon.
a boundary was slowly lifting northeast across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with dewpoints in the lower 60s north of the boundary and upper 60s/lower 70s south of the boundary. Additional isolated diurnal convection maybe also possible within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. These conditions are progged to continue through the first half of the upcoming week as a ridge of high pressure builds back northward across the Plains.
A cold front was positioned just northwest of our area this morning, which is expected to continue to track eastward into the TN Valley during the day.
The weak cold front that moved through the forecast area this morning is well to the east now with a westerly zonal flow over the region.
Between now and 15Z, will have to monitor how far north this low level jet/moisture advection goes. With all the low level moisture being advected into the region on this low level jet, deep layer instability begins to approach 1000-1500j/kg this afternoon on and east of the Prairie Coteau within 35 to 45 knots of 0-6km shear.
337 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will push east of the area this morning.
336 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure remains in force across the southern half of the CONUS this morning though it is not without blemish as a number of local minima exist including TC Humberto, a weak low across the Gulf, and a weak disturbance that is progged to strengthen across southeastern AZ.
1254 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and storms will be ending this morning or early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. To the east of the storms, the atmosphere is more stable, due mainly to the persistent southeasterly flow which has allowed for the maintenance of cooler and drier air. Will slowly lower PoPs overnight and shift the higher of those eastward as the front makes its way through the western half of my CWA. Building high pressure over western Ohio will continue to nudge the surface boundary to the east.
245 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure at the surface was located overhead early this morning allowing for much more comfortable conditions. This high will slowly move eastward today, allowing for southerly winds to return to the area pulling low level moisture back into the region. It will however, remain rather comfortable across the eastern Ozarks throughout the day, with low 80s for highs and surface dew points only climbing into the lower 60s. Very similar conditions are expected tonight, with lows ranging from around 70 in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, to the lower 60s across the eastern Ozarks.
154 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and storms will be ending this morning or early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. To the east of the storms, the atmosphere is more stable, due mainly to the persistent southeasterly flow which has allowed for the maintenance of cooler and drier air. Will slowly lower PoPs overnight and shift the higher of those eastward as the front makes its way through the western half of my CWA. Building high pressure over western Ohio will continue to nudge the surface boundary to the east.
expect VFR conditions to persist trough the period as NERLY flow continues to usher in drier air.
241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will be over the region today, and forecast soundings indicate that there will be some shallow convection this afternoon, resulting in scattered cumulus, with some towering cumulus clouds. Expect slight warming today due to less cloud cover, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Flat ridge working across East Idaho per satellite imagery. Ridge amplifies to the east with Pacific trough approaching coast.
1135 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Mid-level heights are rebounding today over the mid MO Valley in the wake of a strong synoptic cyclone lifting from MN into Ontario. In the low levels, midday surface analysis revealed a high centered over KS, which has temporarily displaced a moist and unstable boundary layer to our south across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Considerable mid-level ridging is forecast over the north-central U.
353 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and storms will be ending this morning or early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Building high pressure over western Ohio will continue to nudge the surface boundary to the east.
210 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure will ridge southwestward across our region into tonight.
1040 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Strato-cu field continues to pivot around the upper low this afternoon as rather gusty northwest winds slowly subside. Surface winds will turn variable later this evening before surface ridging moves through and a more prevailing southwesterly flow returns.
953 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Tonight into Saturday will be mostly cloudy as low pressure off the coast pushes an abundance of mid and high level moisture into the region.
Near the surface, low pressure is anchored in southeast Colorado. This should help to warm the area back into the low 90s.
A weak upper level disturbance will continue to move across the Northern Plains, Saturday, pushing a weak cold front through the region at the surface. Given the weak forcing along this boundary, there could be a lull in convection early this afternoon as the low level jet weakens.
The forecast area will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge. A backdoor cold front will push into north GA and wash out by tonight.
315 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Updated at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Now that southern Indiana and central Kentucky sit in the post frontal region of the cold front, the area can enjoy one day of cooler weather. Areas near the Tennessee border will see the upper 80s, but this is still cooler than it has been the last few days. This is the start of warmer weather to come.
WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over most of the CONUS, and an elongated ridge over the southern half. Convection is at a minimum this morning except for SW NM, invof an inverted trough over the AZ/NM border. Low-lvl return flow has begun pushing the theta-e ridge to the NW, and best chances of convection over the next few days look to be over Southeast New Mexico as a result.
243 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure pulls east into the Canadian maritimes this morning, allowing a frontal system to move through the region today and tonight.
231 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Forecast concern will be the low chance of thunderstorms into Saturday evening. Satellite showing an amplified pattern over the Pacific which then transitions into broad troughiness/progressive flow over most of the country. Afternoon temperatures will be warmer than todays. Consensus of 2 meter, MOS, and bias correction show temperatures from the upper 80s to the lower 90s which is a little warmer than the previous forecast. The central High Plains will be under southwest flow this period, caught between a ridge retreating eastward and a trough over the Great Basin to the west.
230 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Wx map shows high pressure ridge over the Eastern U. Aloft, a mid to upper level low over the central Gulf is providing enhanced showers and thunderstorms along the northern and eastern fringes of this system. For areas along and north of I-10, the influence of high pressure aloft will limit much shower and thunderstorm development.
Very weak cold front moving through the region will produce light northerly winds for most of this forecast period.
The upper pattern this morning is highlighted by a 594dm anticyclone centered over the southern Appalachians, while an H5 low and associated trough dig through Ontario. At the surface, high pressure anchored over the northeast CONUS continues to wedge southward across the southern Appalachians, while a weak cold front slowly slides east through the OH valley with another region of dry high pressure behind. All said, the fcst will feature slight/chance pops westward (mainly due to timing of the front relative to heating), with chance/likely pops eastward across the valley/mtns, with the highest pops across the high terrain of east TN and southwest VA/NC. Temperatures today will remain 6-8 degrees above normal levels, however a few degrees cooler today (especially across the southern valley).
We do have a low level inverted trough that will remain in place today and will be near the I-59 corridor.
/issued 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will be over the region today, and forecast soundings indicate that there will be some shallow convection this afternoon, resulting in scattered cumulus, with some towering cumulus clouds. Expect slight warming today due to less cloud cover, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms could be found in the Florida Straits waters south of the lower and middle Keys, and out in the Gulf waters to our West. With little shear in the lower troposphere, this would tend to favor pulse storms, mainly along convergent boundaries. The mid and upper low in the Gulf will slowly drag up slightly drier mid level air from the south, and that will aid the move towards reduced convective coverage, especially in the Florida Straits. The low level center of Humberto now appears exposed on the latest visible satellite imagery, and just about all the convection associated with the storm is along its eastern flank.
In addition, southwest to westerly winds at the surface will filter in warmer temperatures. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s across the northwest Sandhills to the upper 80s across southwest Nebraska.
Models show flat upper ridging for the CWA today and tonight. The low level wind patterns should be weak normal diurnal patterns.
9"), with low level winds a solid 25kts at 925mb out of the northeast between Humberto and ridge to the north of the area. Interaction with a high pres ridge building off the Mid Atlc coast will generate a fresh to strong NE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc waters, while large NE swells impact the east FL coast.
639 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure pulls east into the Canadian maritimes this morning, allowing a frontal system to move through the region today and tonight. High pressure builds in behind this cold front on Sunday with a seasonably warm and partly sunny day expected.
356 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the region over the next few days.
This trough will stall along the southeast border of the forecast area by late afternoon. Once it does lift will increase over it as an upper level short wave trough forms overhead. Mixed layer cinh may fall low enough for isolated storms to form along this trough. Current data supports the lowest cinh being east of the forecast area in the higher CAPE. On a sidenote, storm movement is 10-20 kts which may allow storms to tap into the surface vorticity along the trough. Tonight through Sunday an upper level short wave ridge will move over the forecast area. The central High Plains will be under southwest flow this period, caught between a ridge retreating eastward and a trough over the Great Basin to the west.
High pressure at the surface was located overhead early this morning allowing for much more comfortable conditions. This high will slowly move eastward today, allowing for southerly winds to return to the area pulling low level moisture back into the region. It will however, remain rather comfortable across the eastern Ozarks throughout the day, with low 80s for highs and surface dew points only climbing into the lower 60s. Very similar conditions are expected tonight, with lows ranging from around 70 in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, to the lower 60s across the eastern Ozarks.
Current model/ensemble blends prog the near-zonal flow aloft to continue today, with the Montana upper trough tracking east across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Humidities will fall into the lower to mid teens this afternoon. Most fuels have cured over southeast Wyoming, and the high fire danger will exist into Sunday. The high plains pressure gradient weakens Sunday, so winds will not be as breezy, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph over portions of Carbon and Albany counties. Upper ridge dominates the eastern CONUS, with upper troughiness over the western CONUS.
The forecast area will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge. A backdoor cold front will push into north GA and wash out by tonight. Afternoon highs will continue above normal for this time of year, but closer to 90 this afternoon and slightly warmer tomorrow.
716 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure pulls east into the Canadian maritimes this morning, allowing a frontal system to move through the region today and tonight. High pressure builds in behind this cold front on Sunday with a seasonably warm and partly sunny day expected.
The upper ridge then builds back over the forecast area after 06Z Sunday.
Clear skies will prevail overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s.
For tonight, a quiet and pleasant night expected as broad upper ridge starts to build over the Northern Plains.
High confidence in dry weather today and high temperatures that are several degrees cooler than the last few days. The cold advection central Indiana will see today since the passage of the cold front yesterday will also usher in lower humidity for the day. Dry conditions are forecast through the short term as an upper ridge of high pressure builds across the central plains and then the Tennessee valley. A couple of models are indicating some light QPF sneaking into the northwestern counties late tonight/Sunday morning but think the building ridge should keep these to the northwest and north so kept dry forecast going.
617 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure pulls east into the Canadian maritimes this morning, allowing a frontal system to move through the region today and tonight. High pressure builds in behind this cold front on Sunday with a seasonably warm and partly sunny day expected.
Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure centered over SW Indiana and Srn IL. GOES16 shows mainly clear skies across the state with a few clouds lingering on the back side of the departed cold front near the Ohio River. GFS and NAM show the High pressure system maintaining control of Indiana's weather this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast through the short term as an upper ridge of high pressure builds across the central plains and then the Tennessee valley. A couple of models are indicating some light QPF sneaking into the northwestern counties late tonight/Sunday morning but think the building ridge should keep these to the northwest and north so kept dry forecast going.
Enhanced easterly to northeasterly flow between a ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Humberto to the SE will continue today.
639 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will push east of the area this morning. High pressure will build northeast through the Ohio valley today and Sunday.
A weak upper level disturbance will continue to move across the Northern Plains, Saturday, pushing a weak cold front through the region at the surface. Given the weak forcing along this boundary, there could be a lull in convection early this afternoon as the low level jet weakens. However, the best chance for thunderstorm activity will be when the low level jet intensifies once again Sunday evening and overnight.
Aloft, a deep layer easterly flow will continue as the region remains wedged between a closed mid/upper level low moving westward over the central Gulf and the upper ridge extending eastward from the Oklahoma region and out over the western Atlantic.
515 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 08z surface analysis had a weak trough moving across the CWA.
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Another nice day today with temperatures topping out in the low to middle 80s along with a nice southerly breeze under mostly sunny skies. This trough is expected to kick off a line of storms extending from southwest Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska by this evening. Southerly winds will help advect warmer temperatures northward, especially across Kansas, where temperatures will climb into the 90s. On the other hand, the midlevels look to moisten up quite well as the low level jet increases moisture transport across the Central Plains.
Flow shifts to the southwest tonight as a mid-level low pressure trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an easterly wave is lifted northward across Arizona on Sunday picking up moisture from the Mexican plateau as high pressure retreats across the southern Plains.
611 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and storms will be ending this morning or early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Building high pressure over western Ohio will continue to nudge the surface boundary to the east. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures will continue on Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
Decreasing cloudiness can then be expected for the rest of the day today as upper ridging builds over the Northern Rockies.
Updated at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Now that southern Indiana and central Kentucky sit in the post frontal region of the cold front, the area can enjoy one day of cooler weather. Areas near the Tennessee border will see the upper 80s, but this is still cooler than it has been the last few days. This is the start of warmer weather to come. Louisville wodayill likely only go to the low 60s.
803 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Today will be dry and mild as upper ridge builds over the region. Decreasing cloudiness can then be expected for the rest of the day today as upper ridging builds over the Northern Rockies.
with light NERLY winds bringing in drier air to the state from high pressure to the NE. This NERLY SFC winds combined with upper level ridging will keep chances for convection low for most areas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 92 67 / 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 67 90 63 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 66 91 63 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 88 57 / 30 20 10 10.
/issued 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ High pressure remains in force across the southern half of the CONUS this morning though it is not without blemish as a number of local minima exist including TC Humberto, a weak low across the Gulf, and a weak disturbance that is progged to strengthen across southeastern AZ.
730 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. Building high pressure over western Ohio will continue to nudge the surface boundary to the east. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures will continue on Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
Between now and 15Z, will have to monitor how far north this low level jet/moisture advection goes. With all the low level moisture being advected into the region on this low level jet, deep layer instability begins to approach 1000-1500j/kg this afternoon on and east of the Prairie Coteau within 35 to 45 knots of 0-6km shear. Overnight and into Sunday, what little there is in the way of higher pressure, post-frontal, is quickly replaced with another return flow pressure gradient and some breezy southerly winds developing by the end of the day. Plenty of warm low level air to mix, so Sunday temperatures should easily be able to replicate Saturday's highs, if not a handful of degrees warmer.
Plenty of cloud cover over most of the area this morning associated with inverted trof over northern Mexico. The above mentioned inverted trof will gradually lift north across the area today bringing the needed lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise with the high PWAT values, localized heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into Sunday as the inverted trof evolves into a closed upper low as it continues to lift N across the eastern half of Arizona.
617 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over the region will provide fair weather conditions to central Illinois through the day today. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s. Fair weather is expected today under the influence of high pressure centered over central Illinois early this morning. Southerly flow will overspread central Illinois from the west through the day as the high shifts towards the upper Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low 80s under mostly sunny skies.