Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Monday looks to be the warmest day of the next seven across the Panhandles as the ridge a ridge axis will be situated over the area.
201 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will provide unseasonably hot temperatures and light winds into the early part of the work week.
High pressure and drier Sunday through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. Expect dry conditions with cooler temperatures through tonight. Weak high pressure builds from the south through tonight. Labor Day is looking like a great day with mostly sunny skies with weak high pressure overhead.
315 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A cold front will drift east across central and eastern NC this morning. High pressure will follow and build across the Carolinas through tonight, before drifting offshore and promoting a warming, return southerly flow on Mon. Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s across the area with some upper 50s thrown in across the NW Piedmont. Temperatures will average a degree or two shy of normal, generally in the low-mid 80s. Tranquil weather Sunday night as high pressure overhead.
322 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 An area of low pressure, currently over southern Alberta, will slide southeastward across the region today. Winds will increase from the west, northwest during the mid afternoon behind the passage of a cold front.
412 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A strong mid level trough continues to move through the Carolinas with drier air working into the area in its wake. Light WNW flow at the surface is also allowing cooler temps to filter into the area with mid 50s across the northern tier and lower 60s across the metro. On the back side of aforementioned trough, we are looking at very tranquil conditions through the short term period.
Upper high pressure has built in over Colorado, really putting a damper on convection so far and also helping to transport smoke from the numerous northwestern fires down our way. A warm and relatively dry weather pattern continues through the extended holiday weekend, as a large upper level ridge across the Desert SW through the Great Basin keeps dry and relatively weak northerly flow aloft across the region. There will still be enough moisture to work with late summer solar heating to support isolated, higher based showers and storms, through the afternoon hours over the higher terrain, with best coverage expected across the southern mountains. Temperatures will continue to be above late summer averages, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s expected across the eastern plains and mainly in 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
The inverted wake trough over the southeast gulf has stalled from around Horseshoe Fla to just north of the Yucatan.
A weak cold front has passed through the region. In the upper levels a trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A weak ridge extends over South Florida. At the surface there is a weak pressure gradient and a weak cold front has moved through the region into Central Florida.
As we head into the evening, winds will begin to turn more northerly as a second and stronger front drops in from the north overnight bringing cooler temperatures for Monday (70s for most places), but gusty northerly winds as well.
319 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak upper level low pressure system will remain over North Texas today. Otherwise, today will be partly to mostly sunny and hot with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s. Upper level high pressure will build southward out of the Central Rockies and the Great Basin tonight through Monday which will push the upper low into South Texas.
201 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure heads east today, with southwest flow ushering in milder air. A cold front crosses Saturday/Saturday night.
Question is how much, if any, freezing drizzle is reaching the ground. Think that there will be some increasing chances later on this evening as time-height charts show an increase in omega in the low level saturated layer. Measurable snow chances look highest in the north, with flurries more likely south of the Highway 2 corridor.
146 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure should maintain dry weather until rain chances return with a Saturday cold front. Lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than average. As the upper-level trough catches up to the surface feature, moisture will increase further fueling showers through the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned stream of moisture in concert with a favorable upper-level trough and jet combo will be enough to support categorical POPs across the forecast area. Despite the high POPs, QPF remains fairly light with an areal average of about two to four tenths projected.
Cooler conditions this afternoon as a dry cool front pushes across the area.
Have shown this trend with the highest pops shifting NE as well overnight. Also went with a mentiion of showers where the 50 pops are located due to increased lift/omega with the upper system and rain/drizzle with the lower pops to the west. The main long wave trough axis will approach the area Saturday bringing with it some jet dynamics/split flow aloft as well as a cold front. By Sat evening, rain chcs diminish from north to south with drier and cooler conditions expected by Sat night.
An area of light rain associated with warm advection ahead of an advancing cold front will continue to push northeast through the eastern half or so of the forecast area this afternoon, and should exit the region before dark. This rain and cloud cover have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than initially expected, but many areas will still reach the mid 40s. That cold front will then sweep across the area tonight, with another chance for light rain along the frontal boundary. Despite the passage of the cold front, highs on Saturday should still reach the upper 30s to near 40.
High pressure will continue to slide eastward today, meanwhile an upper trough will approach from the west. Dry conditions expected during much of the period, however rain chances increase from the west late this evening as the upper trough and associated cold front near. Highs will be in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s inland, to mid 50s along the coast.
Pronounced upper level ridge axis over the Central Great Lakes this afternoon sliding east. Waves of isentropic assent eventually saturating the low levels enough to support some very light rain, but mainly holding off until Saturday morning. This is when the large scale lift arrives with the upper level PV Advection, just behind when the 850 MB Theta-E ridge axis exits east. Local probabilistic guidance suggests sufficient boundary layer mixing ahead of the cold to maintain wind speeds above 15 mph with gusts around 30 mph tonight, which will lead to limited drop in temperatures, as temps likely hold in the lower 40s/around 40.
More significant rain, particularly across southeast MO and southwest IL is expected later tonight and Saturday morning as an upper level trough moves eastward through the northern Plains and sends a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late tonight and Saturday morning. Better QPF is expected across southeast MO and southwest IL as the cold front encounters more favorable low level moisture.
344 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 For tonight, a cold front (that is currently across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles) will continue to shift southeastward. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the cold front by mid-evening--especially along and east of I-44. After tonight, above-average temperatures are expected to continue into the upcoming weekend as the air mass behind this front will be originating off the High Plains.
Expect waves between 3 and 7 feet this afternoon, with the highest waves north of Port Washington. This is out in front of the main trough and cold front that will come through tonight. This first trough looks like it will have a narrow band of sufficient deep saturation to bring a 1 to 2 hour period of a small chance for showers. The east may end up being warmer than the western areas due to the longer period of sunshine expected there. The cold front comes through tonight and it also has a narrow band of sufficient saturation to support a chance of showers as well.
1147 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 A generally milder day is in store as a surface/upper level trough slides across the region. With the passage of today's trough, Saturday will have slightly cooler temperatures with highs mid 30s to near 40. A cold front drops southward during the day, bringing in much colder air for Saturday night with lows just either side of 10 degrees.
As a cold front approaches the pressure gradient will weaken. This forecast period will features two cycles of: warm weather, followed by a mostly dry cold frontal passage, then cold weather. Strong WAA will continue today ahead of a cold front and will account for mostly cloudy skies and very windy conditions with sustained winds in the the 20-30 mph range with gusts to around 40 mph. This evening the cold front will begin to push into northwestern Missouri and progress southeastward through the CWA tonight. Behind the front on Saturday temperatures will be cooler but still mild with a lack of cold air behind the front. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s.
An upper level disturbance and surface cold front will move across Indiana on Saturday bringing widespread light rain to the state.
(See discussion in fire weather section) Another upper trough will drop through the area tonight, pushing a cold front across the region.
237 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Winds will remain strong and gusty through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient ahead of a cold front remains tight.
With heavy cloud cover developing overnight west of I-55 and Hwy 49, lows will only get down to the low 50s.
Otherwise a cold front will move across the area tonight bringing a brief period of gusty north winds through evening before high pressure begins to settle into the area overnight. This will also lead to cooler conditions through the weekend.
/issued 321 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ High pressure over the Southeast U. An upper level trough over the Western U.
Strong high pressure parked on the Delmarva Peninsula early this morning ridges down over FL. reaching the 70s for the highs although the far north will be on the cooler side. As noted in the SHORT TERM section above high pressure dominates today with moderate to fresh breezes.
1102 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Winds have come down across the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains so have let the High Wind Warning expire. Generally 2-4 inches can be expected across the higher terrain of the central mountains with maybe an inch or 2 over the ranges farther south. Otherwise, the main impact from this system will be the wind and the high fire danger it will create. Gusts won't be what they are in the mountains right now but gusts over 30 to 40 mph will possible down to the lower elevations.
Today will be a little cooler behind a system exiting to the east but then high pressure will bring warming temperatures to the region over the weekend.
As a frontal trof approaches, winds are forecast to increase again in the late evening, especially in the northern half of the region. As a cold front approaches the PAH forecast area from the west, rain will rapidly become widespread after midnight. Under general high surface pressure and cyclonic flow aloft, temps behind the front will be a little cooler, but not substantially so, and still above seasonable averages.
Cooler today as a dry cool front pushes across the area.
321 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure remains centered off the coast tonight and Saturday.
101 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure passes to the east later today and tonight. A cold front approaches Saturday.
Some improvement may take place by mid to late morning as the next cold front comes through, but depending on the timing of that front, these poor conditions may persist into the afternoon hours. An approaching Polar trough will pull plenty of Gulf moisture into South TX to generate good chances for rain Today into Saturday. A cold front moving through the area during the day Saturday looks perhaps the best opportunity for isolated brief thunderstorms to form over the area.
239 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will slide off the East Coast through Saturday.
Clear skies and light winds are over the mid state early this morning as the upper ridge moves over the region. The upper ridge will allow temperatures to warm up a bit more than yesterday with most of the area seeing the low 60s. Min RH values this afternoon will be in the 20 to 30 percent range, however if winds pick up a bit further and mix the low levels more, higher surface temps as well as drier air will move to the surface, and min RH values could be lower. The Plains/Midwest trough timing hasn't changed too much, with precip chances crossing the TN River Valley before sunrise Saturday.
Gradually improving conditions are not anticipated to begin until some time late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening after the passage of a cold front. /ISSUED 422 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ Weak ridging lingers over SETX this morning with coastal troughing along the mid and lower coast. Today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Deep convection will probably be confined to areas to the south of the Highway 59 corridor and primarily focused over the coastal waters. As the s/w departs the eastern areas a lull will probably develop Saturday morning with the cold front entering the picture and pushing through to the coast Saturday mid to late afternoon.
Early this morning a mid-level ridge was shifting into the eastern U. as a mid-level trough was quickly advancing toward the Rocky Mountains and High Plains region. This advancing low pressure helped to create a strong pressure gradient over the CWA, resulting in southwesterly winds gusting 25-35mph through the early morning hours. The quickly-advancing mid-level trough will push a cold front into central KS by late morning/early afternoon, with the front progressing eastward and exiting the CWA by this evening. While temperatures will be a bit cooler compared to yesterday, the strong WAA ahead of the front will cause temperatures to quickly rise into the upper 50s/low 60s.
Currently winds have shifted to the NW w/ temps ranging from the lower 30s up to the lower 40s. Trough/boundary continues push thru the region as forecasted. Today-Sun Night: A de-amplifying upper level trough will progress east of the Rockies into the Central Plains today/tonight. In the wake of the trough, NW flow aloft will prevail through the weekend. Expect dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures Fri-Sat and near normal temperatures on Sun, when a weak/dry cold front is expected to progress southward through the Tri-State region. Wind/Today: Pressure rises on the order of 6 mb/3-hr are expected in the wake of a weak/dry cold frontal passage between roughly 15-18Z, when winds will shift solidly to the NW and rapidly increase to 25-30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph.
411 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure remains centered off the coast tonight and Saturday.
Gusty south winds this afternoon will ease this evening, and then shift to the north behind a cold front passage late tonight into Saturday morning. A weak cold front will move south across the terminals tonight and early Saturday.
Low clouds and fog persist across far eastern counties, while the central/eastern Dakotas are seeing passage of a surface front thanks to the development of a weak low pressure system over central North Dakota. Mixed temperatures continue to yield highs in the low/mid 40s. 1/2km winds start near 40kts at 15Z but are expected to mix out in the low/mid 30s so most of the area will be windy today. NAM nest supports some light snow out of this feature which is confined to the low levels, so increased POPs for light snow, though accumulations should be generally negligible with only about 5 microbars of lift in the layer, though the upslope areas of the Coteau see some enhancement briefly.
A vigorous low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to much of the Inland Northwest late tonight into Saturday.
/issued 357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A 500mb trough across the Rockies today will move eastward into the central United States tonight and deepen across northwest Texas Saturday. high pressure across the eastern U. Rain chances will increase Saturday as lapse rates steepen across south TX and a cold front moves into the Rio Grande valley providing a focus for low level convergence.
Our next system of interest is still well off to the west with a cold front extending southward from western Iowa, central Kansas, to the Oklahoma Panhandle.
134 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard moves out to sea tonight and Saturday.
Expect cooler temperatures today in the wake of a dry cold front. High pressure returns this weekend bringing lighter winds and warming temperatures.
231 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Axis of the upper trough has moved east of the forecast area this afternoon followed by mostly sunny skies over much of the area as high pressure builds into the region. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Ontario with a trough extending southward across Minnesota, the arcing into eastern Nebraska. The surface pressure gradient between the low pressure to the east and high pressure over the western CONUS is producing windy conditions over most of the forecast area this afternoon. This weekend, the western upper ridge will amplify, steepening the northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
1244 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure centered over the area this morning will slide offshore this afternoon into tonight and Saturday.
At the moment it looks like a few light showers are being captured on the radar, but being that is so dry in the lower levels nothing is reaching the ground. /SKH/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Today should be a few degrees warmer with humidity levels noticeably higher thanks to continued southeast winds across the region.
A dry and daytime warming trend will commence starting today as upper level high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will also result in cool overnight temperatures over the next two nights with overnight lows near freezing in coldest valleys. Biggest "dilemma" of the day will be determining the high and low temperatures over the next few days. Current temperature readings are ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s, cooler than yesterday at this time by a few degrees. A high pressure ridge is progged to build in over the Eastern Pacific beginning today, and gradually edge in over California over the next day or two.
As the pressure gradient tightens between a high anchored along the East Coast and a cold front tracking through the Plains, southerly winds will increase to 15-25mph. Given these upstream trends and agreement among the high-res model guidance, have decided to add scattered sprinkles to the forecast from late morning into the afternoon. The cold front will quickly sweep through central Illinois Saturday morning, with the best rain chances focused along/east of I-57.
Cold front currently extends from western ND into eastern CO. Additional upper energy is expected to dive out of the northern Rockies and down the backside of the trough on Sun. More winter-like air is expected to move across the area for Wed into Thu as a slower moving longer wave trough passes over the Plains.
1045 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Update to drop the high wind warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have eased to around 20 kts this morning. Also dropped the winter wx advy over the higher mtns as snow has diminished and area webcams/satellite showing a general clearing trend in that area now. Latest surface analysis showing a cold front pushing through southeast Wyoming at this time. May need to cancel the High Wind Warning early up there as strongest winds look to be between now and 12Z.
302 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Northwest flow will gradually decrease across the area this evening as cold front shifts east of the forecast area.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a ridge extending from the Gulf Coast into the Great lakes. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends across the Atlantic Coastline with a cold front to the west across the Great Plains. Thanks to the higher upper level heights and warm air advection in the low levels, temperatures this afternoon are in the 50s at most locations. Southerly winds will develop in the low levels with moisture increasing across the region. The low level wind direction will have a downslope component and this could prevent widespread clouds overnight in the foothills and valley. Overnight lows will be warmer than normal with the low level southerly winds. Additionally, there could be a few light showers for the higher elevations along the TN/NC line where the terrain will provide some orographic lift.
Cold front is organizing over eastern Colorado at midday, with NAM showing it clearing Medicine Lodge by around 6 pm. Winds will trend light S/SWly through sunset as high pressure weakens.
945 AM PST Fri Jan 26 2018 Precipitation chances will retreat northward over the next several days as ridging over the eastern Pacific moves over NorCal. Update: Fog product showed a deck of low clouds from RDD Swd into the Sac area early this morning before the low clouds were masked by the higher level mid to high clouds streaming in from the Pacific. This moisture is associated with a mid latitude cyclone N of HI (along 160W) with its moisture streaming Ewd with the Pacific jet stream. This moisture is forecast to continue over Norcal through Sat morning, before lifting Nwd with the storm track as high pressure builds along the W Coast this weekend.
334 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Warmer air will continue to flow into the region tonight into early Saturday ahead of a cold front.
343 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Today's warmup was the result of a warm front surging northward and scouring away the stratus and fog that had been in place. However, a cold front sits just west of the CWA and is poised to begin moving through this evening and tonight. As the parent low tracks across southwestern Ontario overnight, it will drag the cold front through the CWA and bring the next wave of cold temperatures in its wake. The better moisture will be closer to the low, and there may be enough along the International Border to lead to patchy freezing drizzle or light snow showers as the cold front pushes through and behind the front. On Saturday, a trough/secondary cold front will work across the CWA as the cold air continues to pour into the region.
1033 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 The cold front has pushed into the central mountains early this morning and is draped back across the lower Gunny River back into eastern Utah. Much cooler temperatures will move in behind this front and will be most noticeable in the high country. We remain in the northwest flow with moisture topping the ridge to the west and brushing our northern mountains again on Saturday later in the day. Northwest flow aloft and a large ridge over the Great Basin to the west coast will bring dry weather to most of eastern UT and western CO, except over the northern mountains of CO.
1240 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure should maintain dry weather until rain chances return with a Saturday cold front. Lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than average. As the upper-level trough catches up to the surface feature, moisture will increase further fueling showers through the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned stream of moisture in concert with a favorable upper-level trough and jet combo will be enough to support categorical POPs across the forecast area. Despite the high POPs, QPF remains fairly light with an areal average of about two to four tenths projected.