Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of high pressure exists over the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin area at H5.
244 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
1001 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 (Issued 1001 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020) Low pressure over ern Ontario will continue to deepen as it moves into Quebec Wed AM. The trailing cold front will move across srn WI from late morning into the middle afternoon hours. Gehring (Issued 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Southwest flow will continue as low pressure moves across Ontario. Temperatures will be warm with breezy southwest winds, before a cold front moves through midday.
1058 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Another warmer than average day across the area, with temperatures largely in the 80s and breezy southerly winds. Change is coming through, with a cold front expected to move into the area later this afternoon through Wednesday. Cooler air filters in behind the front, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to near 80, with the cooler highs mostly along/north of I-90. Cooler air will continue into the end of the week.
214 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Cold front extended from near Duluth, MN to the NE Panhandle with temperatures in the 50s behind the front, and in the 60s ahead of it. Dewpoints should rise into the lower to mid 60s. However, a cold front will push into our far northwest counties by noon, reaching our far southeast counties by late in the afternoon. Tonight: Refreshing north winds around 10 mph will usher cooler and drier air into the dvn cwa. Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected as lows bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. However, even cooler in our far nw counties where lows should drop into the upper 40s (Independence to Dubuque).
An elongated mid level trof stretching from the southern Plains up toward our neck of the woods will serve to suppress the storm well south over AL/GA. This same trof may generate a few showers or sprinkles over portions of se MO/far srn IL and the west tip of Ky today, but in general, our forecast area will remain on the dry side with seasonal temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
(Today and tonight) A weak upper low/shear axis currently extends from southeast New Mexico into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
A cold front arrives Wednesday night, with only a small chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. Northern stream trough will dig into the region starting Wednesday night bringing a pronounced cold front with it.
1029 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures today before the passage of a cold front tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will be situated east of the area today. Southerly flow will allow temps to be warmer across the fa with high temps rising into the mid-70s to around 80. A cold front will drop down into the region tonight into Thursday morning.
Farther south, the swells breaking onshore will continue the high risk of rip currents at area beaches through Thursday.
With that, have cancelled the High Surf Advisory. /issued 510 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast for this period, as deep tropical moisture combines with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough digging into the Lone Star State.
507 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low near the west end of Hudson Bay with troughing extending through Manitoba and northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front was dropping through northern Upper Michigan. CAA with northwest low level flow will increase as high pressure from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains builds toward the region. The influx of cooler air along with continued dimming from smoke will limit highs to the lower 60s west to the mid to upper 60s south and east. With temps toward the lower end of guidance, expect area/widespread frost over most inland locations in Upper Michigan as min readings range from 30 to 35.
441 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 510 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast for this period, as deep tropical moisture combines with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough digging into the Lone Star State.
Today, the higher high tide is occurring before 6am, however with current tide levels running around 1.
746 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Still have a few scattered low clouds along and ahead of a weak surface cold front dropping south from Canada. The short term forecast is highlighted by continued smoke aloft, as well as near the surface in the west, and much cooler temperatures. Quasi-zonal flow aloft this morning will be turning northwesterly through the day, as troughing to our northeast deepens and a closed low off the west coast continues to develop. It will be much cooler today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s north central to the mid 60s southwest.
As for temperatures, did trend to a cooler guidance due to heavily filtered sun. Upper level ridge will continue to propagate eastward across the central CONUS through the remainder of the week into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) A shift in the high pressure ridge will result in a more active weather pattern for this afternoon.
739 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low near the west end of Hudson Bay with troughing extending through Manitoba and northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front was dropping through northern Upper Michigan. CAA with northwest low level flow will increase as high pressure from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains builds toward the region. The influx of cooler air along with continued dimming from smoke will limit highs to the lower 60s west to the mid to upper 60s south and east. With temps toward the lower end of guidance, expect area/widespread frost over most inland locations in Upper Michigan as min readings range from 30 to 35.
Deep moisture remains in place today, with PW in the morning XMR sounding around 2 inches, and with a little more breaks in the higher cloud cover should see sufficient daytime heating for scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms into the afternoon.
Much cooler temperatures are anticipated today post-cold front, when compared to yesterday, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. This is the result of an encroaching large upper trough which is currently centered near Hudson Bay.
An elongated mid level trof stretching from the southern Plains up toward our neck of the woods will serve to suppress the storm well south over AL/GA. This same trof may generate a few showers or sprinkles over portions of se MO/far srn IL and the west tip of Ky today, but in general, our forecast area will remain on the dry side with seasonal temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Aformentioned trof will shift east of the region by Thursday, allowing the mid level flow to become more northwesterly. As this happens, a cold front will pass southeast through the region Thursday as Canadian high pressure drops southeast toward the Great Lakes region.
410 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Warmer air will slowly move into the region over the next few days, as haze or smokey conditions continue.
In the wake of this system, a decent cold front will sweep to the south and bring drier and cooler conditions to the region.
532 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Conditions will be largely unchanged across eastern Utah and western Colorado through Thursday as the ridge of high pressure remains overhead. For the most part, the airmass below the ridge is dry and unseasonably mild. Since flow is light beneath the high, advection will be minimal. Moisture originating from a decaying tropical system in the eastern Pacific will be drawn northeastward ahead of the eastward propagating trough over the Pacific Northwest.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 67 77 65 79 / 40 70 80 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 75 63 76 / 20 40 60 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 77 62 77 / 20 20 40 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 73 60 72 / 10 20 60 50 40 NC.
Cold front extended from near Duluth, MN to the NE Panhandle with temperatures in the 50s behind the front, and in the 60s ahead of it. Dewpoints should rise into the lower to mid 60s. However, a cold front will push into our far northwest counties by noon, reaching our far southeast counties by late in the afternoon. Tonight: Refreshing north winds around 10 mph will usher cooler and drier air into the dvn cwa. Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected as lows bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. However, even cooler in our far nw counties where lows should drop into the upper 40s (Independence to Dubuque).
Early this morning, a northeast to southwest oriented upper ridge could be seen situated across the southwestern CONUS with 500mb heights running around 591dm across the lower deserts of Arizona. Over the next couple of days, model guidance has been very consistent in calling for the ridge to keep building and peak across the area by Thursday with 500mb heights around 592dm over portions of the state.
The pattern aloft reflects upper ridging over the western CONUS in between low pressure systems off the coast in the Pacific Northwest and across the central/eastern Canadian provinces. Today we'll see a cold front advance south across the Central Plains during the daytime hours. On Thursday we'll be in a more amplified northwest flow regime aloft with the ridge over the Rockies and trough to the east. Thursday is still forecast to be one of the cooler days this week in the post frontal airmass and thermal cooling with the progressing upper trough.
407 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 High pressure over the southwest states will continue slow warming through Thursday.
High pressure aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the end of the week.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft stretched across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak cold front is pushing southward across northeast Colorado and extreme southern Nebraska.
While Arkansas is not likely to see appreciable effects from Sally, scattered showers/storms are possible today and tonight and maybe Thursday, as daytime heating interacts with the weak surface boundaries and upper troughing to the northwest of Sally. On Thursday, frontal boundary currently in the Northern Plains will gain momentum toward Arkansas as upper ridging anchored over the western conus contracts westward, and troughing emanating from a low over Hudson Bay shifts down into the central Plains.
522 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Upper level ridge retrograded into the Intermountain West as a upper trough dug south into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from southern Canada. Smoke/haze from the West Coast wildfires topped the ridge and spread southeast into the region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. While the higher smoke concentrations will be aloft, daytime mixing will pull some of the smoke to the surface with visibilities lowering to 5SM at times. It will be at least 10 degrees cooler across the plains where 700mb temperatures will lower to 8 to 10C, while warm temperatures prevail to the west.
Surface dew points in the u50s have wedged into north AL this morning as easterly flow continues from the ridge on the lee side of the Appalachians. Beginning Thursday evening, moderate northerly flow in the boundary layer will begin to advect a cooler and drier airmass into the region, as the center of a modified Canadian airmass builds southeastward into the Upper-MS Valley/northern Great Lakes.
342 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will gradually strengthen over the Tri-State area late this week -- on the ENE-NE periphery of an upper level ridge over the 4-Corners, Desert Southwest, and central/southern Rockies. Expect dry conditions and continued clear/mostly clear skies with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Thu-Fri night: Low-level southerly flow will prevail over the Tri- State area Thu-Fri -- on the eastern periphery of a thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies.
659 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures today before the passage of a cold front tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will be situated east of the area today. Southerly flow will allow temperature to be warmer across the area today with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80. A cold front will drop down into the region tonight into Thursday morning.
A cold front arrives Wednesday night, with only a small chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. Zonal flow aloft with high pressure to the south will keep the area dry through the day. A weak cold front will then swing down from the north this evening, bringing a slight chance of showers through the night. The southerly moisture feed that usually fuels rain ahead of such cold fronts will be cut off by Hurricane Sally. Much cooler conditions and breezy northeast winds will follow the front into Thursday. Upper troughing over the eastern US will allow dry northwest flow aloft to persist into the first half of the weekend, with much below normal temperatures.
614 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 (Today and tonight) A shift in the high pressure ridge will result in a more active weather pattern for this afternoon.
A broad upper level trough offshore will continue to influence the region today, before moving inland late in the week and bringing more widespread shower chances to the area.
Ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the region late tonight, southwesterly surface winds will warm temperatures a couple degrees more than yesterday. A cold front will drop southward through the mid-Mississippi Valley overnight into Thursday, driven by a mid-level trough over the Hudson Bay region.
Overnight water vapor imagery showing a weak upper trough over the central Plains, Sally just off the Gulf coast, an upper low pushing southeast out of northern Manitoba, and a cut-off low west of the Pacific Northwest. Looking back at daytime visible imagery, smoke from the western states' fires covered much of the central and northern Plains while overnight surface observations north of the modest cold front associated with the Manitoba low indicate some reductions in visibility from apparent smoke. The front continues to pass through dry today with limited ascent and warm/dry air aloft despite slightly warmer surface temps.
Skies will remain mostly clear outside of smoke in the higher altitudes from fires out west. An area of high pressure exists over the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin area at H5.
328 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Conditions will be largely unchanged across eastern Utah and western Colorado through Thursday as the ridge of high pressure remains overhead. For the most part, the airmass below the ridge is dry and unseasonably mild. Since flow is light beneath the high, advection will be minimal. Moisture originating from a decaying tropical system in the eastern Pacific will be drawn northeastward ahead of the eastward propagating trough over the Pacific Northwest.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast for this period, as deep tropical moisture combines with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough digging into the Lone Star State.
A weak and pretty much dry cold front will drop down from the north and cross the state on Thursday.
There will also be a slight chance of a few spotty showers this evening into late tonight as a cold front works its way southeastward into central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower 80s today, followed by cooler highs Thursday ranging from low to mid 70s north of I-70 to near 80 south of I-70. Under the ridge axis, some fog is noted early this morning around the I-70 corridor in southeast IL. The cold front will slowly approach during the day, reaching Galesburg around sunset and pushing south of Flora to Lawrenceville around sunrise Thursday. Highs today expected to be slightly above normal, in the low 80s, and lows tonight mid 50s to around 60.
A well defined trough around 250mb currently over northeastern New Mexico will slide eastward through the day and end up centering itself over the South Plains this afternoon. A respectable upper level jet streak was analyzed in model data on the upwind side of the trough. We still would not expect much in the way of lift from this trough with the FA on the upwind side of the trough axis or in an area of subsidence.
726 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Fog has crept up onto a few of the ridges this morning, but it is still expected to dissipate quickly this morning. Given these trends, have removed pops for most of the area through Thursday as the ridging should stay in place on the northwest side of this system.
/issued 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ A quiet morning is underway, with light and variable winds and a persistent upper trough still draped over the region ahead of an area of high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Rockies. The aforementioned trough will slowly meander eastward, and while lift associated with this feature is weak, warming temperatures today could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, mainly along the west of the Pecos River, and perhaps edging into the northwestern Permian Basin and southern South Plains per latest high resolution guidance. Today continues be the warmest day of the forecast, with highs near seasonal normals in the middle to upper 80s for most, upper 70s across the mountains, and highs in the lower 90s through the Rio Grande Valley.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a touch above seasonal averages, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. A cold front will move through the forecast area late this afternoon into the mid-evening hours - slightly quicker arrival/passage than earlier anticipated. This front will be the initial catalyst to advect drier and cooler air into the area Thursday, with a reinforcing shot as high pressure to the north builds into the area. Expect a wind shift as a cold front moves through the area, with scattered cumulus along/ahead of the front.
309 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of cold air moving through central Canada and a large area of hot high pressure over the western third of the CONUS. northeast Montana is capture in between these features under northwest flow aloft with cooler air moving in form the north at the surface. Farther west a large low pressure system sets of the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Moisture starved cold front continues to dive SE across our area, causing winds to veer northerly in its wake. As such, expect to see noticeably cooler temperatures today, as breezy northerly flow enhances CAA across our area. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to diminish by sunset, with lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s. Cooler temperatures look to prevail into the end of the week, as highs only rise into the mid 60s to 70s, with lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
With Canadian high pressure building in by this evening, temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s overnight. Light winds and clearing skies will set the stage for frost development over central Minnesota and western Wisconsin as lows will hover just above freezing. Highs Thursday will stay in the low 60s, but overall it will be mostly sunny.
With all model guidance indicating that the most compact portion of the circulation related to the tropical cyclone will remain to our south/west, it appears as if several peripheral bands of low-topped showers will pivot northwestward, and we have included likely POPs for much of the CWFA to reflect the fast-moving nature of these bands. Beginning Thursday evening, moderate northerly flow in the boundary layer will begin to advect a cooler and drier airmass into the region, as the center of a modified Canadian airmass builds southeastward into the Upper-MS Valley/northern Great Lakes.
This reinforcing cold front will continue to push south through the day. HRRR vertically integrated smoke takes the highest density plume to the south of us, so we will get more solar today. Temps in northwestern MN will get down to freezing and slightly below, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
Fog has crept up onto a few of the ridges this morning, but it is still expected to dissipate quickly this morning. Given these trends, have removed pops for most of the area through Thursday as the ridging should stay in place on the northwest side of this system.
Broad high pressure is expected to continue through the period bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The high pressure ridge axis is currently over western Idaho. Expect this ridge axis to progress east today into Thursday.
156 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures today before the passage of a cold front tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will be situated east of the area today. Southerly flow will allow temps to be warmer across the fa with high temps rising into the mid-70s to around 80. A cold front will drop down into the region tonight into Thursday morning.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Cold front moving through Iowa today and was situated over the southeast corner of the state at 2 pm. Temperatures along and ahead of the boundary were in the low to mid 80s and readings to the north were in the 70s along with breezy north winds.
An upper level trough axis will stretch from northeast Texas into the eastern portions of the Big Bend region on Thursday. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front extending from northern MI southwest to the northwest tip of MO will move southeastward through our forecast area tonight and Thursday morning. These northerly winds will bring cooler air into our area, and this will be the beginning of a cooling trend.
246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Quiet weather continues with prior frontal passage bringing cooler air to the region in its wake.
1117 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Conditions will be largely unchanged across eastern Utah and western Colorado through Thursday as the ridge of high pressure remains overhead. For the most part, the airmass below the ridge is dry and unseasonably mild. Since flow is light beneath the high, advection will be minimal. Moisture originating from a decaying tropical system in the eastern Pacific will be drawn northeastward ahead of the eastward propagating trough over the Pacific Northwest.
1208 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 (Today and tonight) A weak upper low/shear axis currently extends from southeast New Mexico into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a reasonable start.
There will also be a slight chance of a few spotty showers this evening into late tonight as a cold front works its way southeastward into central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower 80s today, followed by cooler highs Thursday ranging from low to mid 70s north of I-70 to near 80 south of I-70. Meanwhile a cold front was over moving se into southeast sections of WI and IA late this morning. Under the ridge axis, some fog is noted early this morning around the I-70 corridor in southeast IL. The cold front will slowly approach during the day, reaching Galesburg around sunset and pushing south of Flora to Lawrenceville around sunrise Thursday. Highs today expected to be slightly above normal, in the low 80s, and lows tonight mid 50s to around 60.
Afternoon highs will be much cooler across North Mississippi today than we have seen recently, with cooler conditions returning area wide tomorrow. Low rain chances will continue tomorrow, followed by a dry cooler weekend. Highs today will be in the mid to lower 80s with our cooler temperatures near the MS/AL border.