Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE BEGINS ITS RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO A CLOUDY, MORE HUMID AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE LOWER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT BUT NOT LOOKING FOR SHOWERS WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STILL LIMITED.
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTH. TROUGH WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MODERATE QUICKLY SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. MILDER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH.
400 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING STAGE RIGHT.
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY.
114 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 High pressure ridge axis settled over the region this morning, clearing most of the clouds across Central Illinois. Ridge of high pressure currently located along the Mississippi River will slide eastward today, resulting in light winds and clearing skies. Abundant sunshine will prevail across the board by afternoon, with high temperatures mainly in the lower 50s.
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
light southeasterly winds will become more southerly around 5 to 10 mph for much of the CWA as high pressure continues to exit the region. These breezy conditions combined with afternoon relative humidity values falling into the low-mid 20 percent range over the same locations will create at least limited fire dangers through the afternoon hours.
Low level thermal ridging, downslope flow and abundant sunshine should help temperatures climb to above normal values this afternoon. A weak upper level trough across the central Plains will push a cold front south into the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico Plains tonight. More low level thermal ridging, downslope flow and abundant sunshine should help temperatures climb to above normal values areawide Saturday afternoon. Another dry cold front will pass through the forecast area Saturday night as the aforementioned Rocky Mountain system moves onto the plains.
339 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 Two progressive upper level troughs will pass across western Kansas tonight and again Saturday night.
345 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
306 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH WETTER FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL STAY JUST WEST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AND WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH DEEPER COLDER AIR ARRIVING WITH THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. RANGING FROM SNOW OR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRANSITION ZONE.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TO WARROAD MN HALSTAD TO LITCHVILLE ND. THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED GRAND FORKS OVER THE LAST HOUR. FREEZING RAIN STILL A CONCERN IN THE FAR NORTH. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN RAIN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS/CURRENT CONDITIONS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ADJUST HIGHS AND SNOW CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
212 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 CURRENT IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE.
541 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL TO PRODUCE RAINY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUED TO BE THE HEAT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST MODELS SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TOMORROW WHICH MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO READINGS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF A MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUN AFTN. THIS PLUS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. A LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED MON AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE AND THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG AS THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES.
IT NOW APPEARS ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST.
614 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE ARE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 140 W. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING, CAPPING, AN EXTREMELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S(F) BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
MUCH DRIER DAY TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RESIDED IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES. THE GFS SWINGS THE HIGHER CAPES INTO THE DAKOTAS QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
245 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BROUGHT ANOTHER WARM DAY TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE REGION AS ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE BRINGING COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
CLOUD LINES EMANATING OFF THE LOWER KEYS HAVE SPAWNED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 100S OUTSIDE THE STORMS. MAYBE AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WE SEE SOME BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES. IT WILL BE WARM OUT THERE (SUMMER OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF TOMORROW AT 11:38 AM CDT) WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS PUSHING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FARTHER WEST LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW.
258 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED FAIRLY FAST WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF A UPPER LEVEL HEAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE 12Z SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
249 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL TO PRODUCE RAINY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEATHER SHOULD BE IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TS BILLS REMNANTS TRACKS NE OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
424 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST AND HAVE THE HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
1103 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CHEYENNE CURRENTLY. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD.
500 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATE NERN IA SFC BASED CELLS WITH SWWD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BNDRY TO CONT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BROUGHT ANOTHER WARM DAY TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE REGION AS ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE BRINGING COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
WARM AND HUMID EVENING AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION MEANS TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
Will be a mostly dry day for everyone with just some sch/chc PoPs for showers/storms across portions of northeast Missouri for very late this afternoon as the next cold front begins to approach the region but by and large. Will be warmer today. much warmer in some locations. Warmest conditions will be across central Missouri which are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s with the coolest highs in south-central Illinois with highs in the mid 80s. Best chance of showers/storms with aforementioned cold front tonight will be across far northern sections of the area. Cold front from Saturday night looks to stall somewhere across the CWA.
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/ CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES WERE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH.
WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL H5 RIDGE IN THE RANGE OF 592-595 DAM CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. NO RELIEF FROM DEW POINTS EITHER SO EXPECT HEAT INDICES EACH DAY TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LIFT TO OVERCOME THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO INTRODUCE MVFR OVERNIGHT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK RETURN OF VFR SUNDAY MRNG FOR CRP-ALI-VCT.
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER SE IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE PLATEAUING AROUND THE LOW-MID 90S AT THE MOMENT, AND SHOULD DECREASE TO THE LOW 80S BY MID EVENING.
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
257 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY.
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ARRIVING. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON BACKING WINDS NEAR A WARM FRONT IN THE CWA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE VERTICAL STRETCHING AND INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE DVN CWA WAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NW IA WITH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY ENDING THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2015 An inverted mid level trof axis is e of the CWFA while light NE mid level flow (12Z MAF sounding) is in place.
Much of the area will reach the lower 90s, with mid to upper 90s likely for north central KS.
349 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Southwest/northeast oriented upper trough over West Central Texas will gradually push east Sunday, as an upper ridge builds in from the northwest.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE WATCHING IT CLOSELY FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. HOWEVER THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THESE SUPERCELL STORMS LOOKS TO BE NEAR A TRIPPLE POINT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF WE CAN GET THIS OUT OF HERE AND HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN FOR RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN THE FORECAST DATABASE HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGH POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL BUILD IN ON HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AT LATE EVENING WITH UPPER LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO STILL DIGGING. LOOKS LIKE PIECES VORTICITY KEEPS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH KICKING OUT FROM OLD MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS FUELING MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SHOULD PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF HERE. AS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
1225 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DOWNGLIDE WINDS INCREASE. THEN DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WARMER WITH READING INTO THE 60S.
1027 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EARLIER BATCH OF CLOUDS HAS CLEARED BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE SUN HAS LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT. READINGS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SATURDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AS WELL AS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 63 56 65 / 0 40 90 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 65 54 65 / 0 20 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 63 54 65 / 0 20 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 63 51 64 / 0 0 60 70.
UPDATE: Large area of light to moderate rain will continues to move into the area from the west ahead of large area of low level moisture convergence under ascent from trough moving in from the Plains. The models were depicting relatively strong upper level divergence over much of our region ahead of the upper level trough. By Saturday evening most of the measurable precipitation should shift into southeast MO and southwest IL, south and east of STL as the upper level trough shifts into the Great Lakes region.
820 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 THE LOWER STRATOCU DECK HAS GRADUALLY ERODED AWAY TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES. ALSO LOWERED THE RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST A BIT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE RIDGE CENTER ACRS THE OH RVR VALLEY. SOME LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WAS CONTINUING TO OCCUR ACRS WEST CENTRAL TX TO LEE OF DEEP L/W TROF OVER THE EASTERN GRT BSN. AS THE MID SECTION OF THE L/W TROF AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. LOWS TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THEN HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT. BEST COMBO OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL PLAY THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT HIGHS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THICK CLOUD COVER/PRECIP/SATURATED PROFILES WHICH SUGGEST WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
1038 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY.
729 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRY SINKING AIR BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION.
1039 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
A cold front is expected to push south through the region around 31/09-12Z, shifting winds to the N/NW. Convection will end tonight with the loss of daytime heating as well as the arrival of an upper low. The departure of the upper low will push a cold front south overnight.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A 1002MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WILL OPEN TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY HELP SOME AREAS WITH CALM WINDS DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN TO CO AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
AS AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NM AND NRN OLD MX. WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE LFK TERMINAL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK N INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH HALLOWEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST.
730 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
Due to the widespread rain and gusty southeast winds, Halloween will be blustery and chilly with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.
1152 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO CO. NEXT TROUGH/JET STREAK WAS OVER EASTERN MT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN TO CO AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THERE IS A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. AND ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT FROM EASTERN NDAK TO THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER. EVEN THOUGH THE WESTERN TROUGH IS FAIRLY DEEP. 12Z 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS RANGED FROM 20 TO 70 METERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST MOVING EAST INTO SE ALBERTA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. CHECKING THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS LINE WHICH CAN ALSO BE A GOOD INDICATOR FOR RAIN CESSATION. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY WOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.