Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current WV and Vis GOES imagery shows a well a deep amplified trough with axis through the northern Plains into the Desert Southwest region. Near the surface, a cold front is on the move to the southeast generally from western Iowa back into western portions of Kansas. Convective elements and a few updrafts are trying to become established over north central Kansas up into Nebraska as well as southwest outlining the leading edge of the cold front. Can't rule out some areas see a couple hours of light freezing rain with the cold air moving in at lower levels. After a cooler Tuesday, the upper mean Westerlies reside back to the north of the area with slight mid to upper level ridging across the region.
Upper low near the Four Corners at 21z will eject across the central Rockies and adjacent plains tonight as an open wave.
High pressure settles over the region tonight. An area of low pressure will move into Iowa on Tuesday. Otherwise, the region will remain under the influence of an upper trough through the short term.
430 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 This afternoon we see an area of high pressure set up to our east along the Mid Atlantic coast. The upper level ridging will relent some Tuesday, as a negatively tilted trough axis pushes northward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Tuesday night, a cold front will push east toward eastern Kentucky and combined with right entrance region divergence aloft and low level jet will lead to a good shot of measurable precipitation mainly toward dawn once best moisture and lift arrive.
An area of low pressure will deepen as it moves off the Rockies and crosses the Plains, bringing what will likely be a round of accumulating snow to southwest and north central Nebraska. Since lift will be somewhat limited in the low levels, most of western Nebraska's effects should be driven by mid-level forcing. Notable isentropic lift occurs between 750mb and 600mb, and forecast soundings indicate the lowest omega centered around H6. The cloud layer should remain cooler than -10C, encouraging complete ice nucleation and snow growth. Trended cooler for tomorrow's highs, especially central Neb where snow will be lasting longer into the day.
Cold overnight lows will be the highlight once again tonight into tomorrow morning with widespread 30s, and some mid to upper 20s in the coldest inland valleys.
446 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 Another cool and unsettled day across the Western Slope today as the midlevel low pressure system lifts across the region. Current temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler this afternoon, helping to generate more efficient snow rates in the higher elevations. The low will transition to an open wave this evening before quickly lifting northeast into the Plains overnight. Tuesday will see the aforementioned northwest flow become more zonal as another Pacific trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
The heaviest band is currently pivoting through the Lower Keys, between Sugarloaf and the Torch Keys.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 75 68 77 62 / 10 40 60 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 77 64 75 61 / 0 20 60 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 55 76 64 74 59 / 0 20 60 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 75 62 74 60 / 0 10 60 80 80.
556 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Rain showers moving across the CWA this afternoon are expected to continue into the evening as a cold front continues to move through. A strong temperature gradient has set up, with areas behind the front quickly dropping below freezing while areas ahead of it remain in the 60s. A flash freeze is possible this evening as roads remain wet and temperatures quickly drop below freezing. The main story in the forecast is Tuesday's low pressure system. This places the highest snow amounts of 6-8" from Burnett Count to the Apostle Islands. Ensembles further show this uncertainty as members between various models differ in placement of the highest swath of snow.
541 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Stratus and strong southerly winds will remain in place across the region through the overnight ahead of a cold front that will work through the region Tuesday morning. Cooler airmass works into the region behind the front leading to falling temperatures on Tuesday.
718 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 High pressure continues to sit off to our east, allowing for mostly clear skies and light southeasterly flow. This afternoon we see an area of high pressure set up to our east along the Mid Atlantic coast. The upper level ridging will relent some Tuesday, as a negatively tilted trough axis pushes northward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Tuesday night, a cold front will push east toward eastern Kentucky and combined with right entrance region divergence aloft and low level jet will lead to a good shot of measurable precipitation mainly toward dawn once best moisture and lift arrive.
MVFR ceilings will redevelop late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning until the passage of a cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it passes through. Gusty west to northwest winds and clearing skies will follow the passage of the cold front late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
/issued 323 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020/ Warm temperatures are here to stay for a while despite the passing of two cold fronts over the next 7 days. Ahead of an approaching cold front warm air advection will strengthen across the Midsouth.
752 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 High pressure will move offshore tonight and Tuesday.
It was considerably cooler near Lake Michigan where Kewaunee was 50 degrees. For tonight, the cold front will approach the area this evening and then move across much of the area overnight. Across Door County, the warmest temperatures may occur after midnight as winds turn to the southwest ahead of the cold front. Also late tonight, dense marine fog may develop along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to slackening winds and the higher dewpoints over the colder waters. Low pressure is expected to move towards northeast Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Across the Fox Valley and lakeshore, the low level jet is expected to crank up to 50 knots during the afternoon. There is a significant difference in guidance values for daytime temperatures between the colder MET and the warmer MAV guidance. Took a blend of guidance values for the highs and hourly temperatures.
222 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2020 Temperatures will begin to recover to near season averages as we head into the weekend with some increases in ridgetop winds tonight into Tuesday. High temperatures again remain in the low to mid 30s across the Sierra and western Nevada this afternoon. If the high temperature in Reno remains below 36 degrees this afternoon we would set another cold high temperature record as we did yesterday. Another frigid night is expected tonight particularly where the low level stratocumulus decks erodes and where recent snowfall covers the ground. At higher elevations, temperatures may be moderated a bit as a trough brushes by the north and increases ridge top winds with gusts around 40-50 mph overnight.
308 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 High pressure settles over the region tonight. An area of low pressure will move into Iowa on Tuesday. Otherwise, the region will remain under the influence of an upper trough through the short term.
215 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather and below average temperatures continue through mid- week, with freezing Valley temperatures Tuesday morning. Another round of freezing temperatures are forecast again tonight and into Tuesday morning. Many communities in the northern Sacramento Valley as well as along the I-5 corridor will have the potential to get colder tonight as winds are forecast to remain light and prevent the mixing of warmer air aloft.
Current forecast on track, with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Warmer temperatures return this weekend. The upper trough will push through the Four Corners into this evening, allowing for clearing skies and calmer winds to settle in overnight. Still anticipating a very chilly Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures likely for the normal colder valleys east and south of Tucson. Localized freezing temperatures are likely within the Tucson metro along washes and usual cold spots, but a widespread freeze is not expected. Broad troughing will drape across the entire CONUS this week, though flow over Arizona will be fairly zonal in nature.
Light accumulations will occur over Lookout and Lolo Pass, as well as valleys across north central Idaho (especially the higher valleys, such as Pierce and Headquarters).
900 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures remain in place overnight as high pressure over the Mid Atlantic maintains its grasp on our weather. Dew points will rise to the low 60s by daybreak, keeping overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Some of this activity may be the result of weak diurnal heating (despite the mostly cloudy conditions) and have favored the highest coverage in the afternoon. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures more in check, with highs in the low to mid 70s being more common.
245 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 An upper-level trough axis located near the Four Corners region will continue to produce widespread areas of light snow through the evening and overnight hours tonight across northern and northeast Colorado.
340 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Current WV and Vis GOES imagery shows a well a deep amplified trough with axis through the northern Plains into the Desert Southwest region. Near the surface, a cold front is on the move to the southeast generally from western Iowa back into western portions of Kansas. Convective elements and a few updrafts are trying to become established over north central Kansas up into Nebraska as well as southwest outlining the leading edge of the cold front. Can't rule out some areas see a couple hours of light freezing rain with the cold air moving in at lower levels. After a cooler Tuesday, the upper mean Westerlies reside back to the north of the area with slight mid to upper level ridging across the region.
Winds will swing from the southwest to the west-northwest and increase a few knots early Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through the region. A Pacific-type cold front will race across the area tonight, shifting winds to the west, then northwest, and ushering in a much drier airmass. Weak cold advection and the dry air will bring cooler temperatures tonight, although the breezy, downslope winds will counter-act that to a degree. Lows are expected to range from the lower 30s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to lower 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
632 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Record warmth is expected with sunny sky again Tuesday, but rain chances return Tuesday night with a cold front. Dry weather continues through the overnight with exiting high pressure. Warm advection with increasing southerly flow will keep warmer temperatures in the forecast for tonight, with morning lows 10-15 degrees above average. Some higher clouds will increase through the day Tuesday, notably to the west, as moisture is funneled around the western Atlantic high and the approaching upper trough.
604 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning, resulting in northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s each afternoon, with lows ranging from the lower 40s into the mid 50s through the end of the week.
1027 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Updated for the cancellation of the High Wind Warning. Winds are expected to continue decreasing through tonight, thus have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Currently have a large upper trough swinging through the Four Corners region this afternoon. As the upper trough begins to move NE toward the Central Plains, it will drag a Pacific front through the region later tonight. Not expecting strong winds behind this front but it will advect cooler and drier air into the region.
High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average each day, and areas of frost are likely in the valleys and the high deserts each night.
1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Stratus and strong southerly winds will remain in place across the region through the overnight ahead of a cold front that will work through the region Tuesday morning. Cooler airmass works into the region behind the front leading to falling temperatures on Tuesday.
1052 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning, resulting in northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s each afternoon, with lows ranging from the lower 40s into the mid 50s through the end of the week.
Temperatures today will be starkly cooler than the previous succession of afternoons with majority only into the 60s for highs with U50s to the north and 70s south of I-10.
Colder air sinking southward into western/central Kansas lowering H85 temperatures well below 0C early this morning will begin to actually warm a bit this afternoon as weak lee side troughing developing in eastern Colorado brings about a more west-northwesterly downslope flow to the high plains, in turn pushing H85 temperatures back above 0C. Under decreasing cloud cover throughout the day, look for afternoon highs only up into the 40s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 50s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas.
Hooley Weakening trof axis aloft produced some light snow this morning over east central Montana. Tonight into Tuesday sees 500 mb heights quickly building over the region ahead of another approaching trof developing over British Columbia. Winds will decrease Tuesday evening as upper trof moves into the northern Rockies and high plains.
Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures remain in place overnight as high pressure over the Mid Atlantic maintains its grasp on our weather. Dew points will rise to the low 60s by daybreak, keeping overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Some of this activity may be the result of weak diurnal heating (despite the mostly cloudy conditions) and have favored the highest coverage in the afternoon. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures more in check, with highs in the low to mid 70s being more common.
347 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 Record warmth is expected with sunny sky again today, but rain chances return late tonight with a cold front.
The fog will dissipate and ceilings lift from 14-16Z over the coastal plains to MVFR as winds shift to southwest-west due to a pre-frontal trough.
1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 A cold front is currently moving through the region which will shift winds to the west-northwest and increase to around 15kt. A Pacific-type cold front will race across the area tonight, shifting winds to the west, then northwest, and ushering in a much drier airmass. Weak cold advection and the dry air will bring cooler temperatures tonight, although the breezy, downslope winds will counter-act that to a degree. Lows are expected to range from the lower 30s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to lower 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 68 77 62 73 / 40 60 70 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 64 75 61 69 / 20 60 80 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 64 74 59 70 / 20 60 80 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 62 74 60 69 / 10 60 80 80 30.
The low PoPs along the northern Wasatch Front and mountains look okay for these occasional flurries. Farther south and southeast, the skies have cleared nicely this evening, save the west central desert, where clouds have been expanding recently likely in response to the weak upper level thermal trough moving through at this time. These clouds are likely to dissipate later tonight as that thermal trough exits.
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southeast across south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. A cold front currently extends from Hamilton county NE to Ellis county. This cold front will continue to surge southward through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Much cooler highs are expected in the wake of the front with values peaking in the 50s.
A cold front will enter the region Tuesday afternoon, which may focus isolated -SHRA near and just ahead of the bndry, although confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs attm.
MVFR ceilings will develop later tonight and persist until a cold front passes Tuesday morning. The positive tilt trough will transition to a negative tilt as it picks up steam and ejects northeast over the central Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the U. The cold front approaches after 09Z, with showers and isolated thunderstorms becoming possible mainly to the north and west of Tulsa thru 12Z. MVFR ceilings will redevelop late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning until the passage of a cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it passes through. Gusty west to northwest winds and clearing skies will follow the passage of the cold front late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
A cold front will move through central Illinois early this evening.
1002 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure prevails into Tuesday.
/issued 1027 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020/ Updated for the cancellation of the High Wind Warning. Winds are expected to continue decreasing through tonight, thus have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Currently have a large upper trough swinging through the Four Corners region this afternoon. As the upper trough begins to move NE toward the Central Plains, it will drag a Pacific front through the region later tonight. Not expecting strong winds behind this front but it will advect cooler and drier air into the region.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, slowed down the cold frontal passage about an hour based on latest guidance. Gosselin The record breaking heat that we have experienced this first week and a half of November will come to an abrupt end tomorrow afternoon as a cold front currently stretching from the upper Midwest to the foothills of the Rockies sweeps across the bi-state region. You have to go back to 1999 for a stretch of weather like this when the high temperature was at or above 75 degrees between 11/5 and 11/10. Windy Conditions on Tuesday: A strong and gusty southerly wind ahead of the cold front may approach wind advisory criteria.
957 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 20z surface analysis had ridge poking into the CWA pushing clouds/moisture south/east. Water vapour had mean upper trough from SK into the four corners area. Upper low spinning over the NV/CO border spewing some mid/high clouds into the far southwest.
1102 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Stratus and strong southerly winds will remain in place across the region through the overnight ahead of a cold front that will work through the region Tuesday morning. Cooler airmass works into the region behind the front leading to falling temperatures on Tuesday.
111 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 Record warmth is expected with sunny sky again today, but rain chances return late tonight with a cold front.
430 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Upper low located across Colorado. Upper low tracks through Nebraska today. Upper trof moving into the Pacific Northwest will replace current upper trof, bringing a chance of snow Wednesday night. Zonal flow will bring another fast moving/moisture starved trof to the area for the weekend, followed by building ridge.
Think this was the right call expand the High Wind Warnings to incorporate this areas, with winds looking to increase in the next several hours; especially under an area of steep lapse rates and good vertical mixing. Besides the high winds forecast for these areas, areas of blowing snow have already lead to slick road conditions and reduced visibilities, for difficult travel conditions today. Looks like at least the Bordeaux area may need to have the High Wind Warning extended through Wednesday's early morning hours.
405 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2020 A broad trough of low pressure will move over the Northern Rockies from the northwest today, bringing a long-lived light snow event across much of the region.
604 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 The cold front is currently draped across northwest MO to Kansas City, extending SSW from there toward southeastern Kansas. Showers are ongoing across NW Missouri and eastern Kansas, and these showers will continue to move the northeast over the next few hours, and will eventually take on a more eastward progression as the cold front currently across eastern Kansas swings west to east through the region this morning.
Road temperatures remain above freezing and as of this writing, no major road issues have been reported with the freezing rain areas. The base of a deep upper trough continues to eject northeast out of southeastern Colorado this morning and is forecast to move across the forecast area by this afternoon. As mentioned earlier, road temperatures remained just above freezing with no significant impacts to roads as road temperatures remained just above freezing. Over our northern counties, behind the front, light icing has mixed with and changed over to snow with snow beginning to stick on the highways per NDOT web cameras. Generally 2-4" of snow is possible across northeast Nebraska before tapering off by dark as the upper low moves northeast of the region.
Temperatures are very mild for this time of year, with readings in the low to mid 60s areawide. A few warm air advection showers are expected to move into north Mississippi and west Tennessee by late morning and early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will build in behind the front on Wednesday with clearing skies by late afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The cold front is here and moving southeast through the area. Clouds will decrease from the west, so some warming is expected this afternoon despite the cold advection, but high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than yesterday. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall to near freezing across northern and western Oklahoma Wednesday morning.
Freezing Valley temperatures are expected this morning and Wednesday morning. NW flow will prevail over Norcal through the mid-week period in the wake of the Upper level low moving into/across the Plains States. (Thus the lower than normal confidence.
525 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 For the 10/012Z TAF period, low clouds continue to stream northward in advance of the next cold front proceeding through the area this evening and overnight. /Tuesday through Wednesday/ Warmer than average conditions continue ahead of the next cold front set to arrive across our northwestern zones later this Tuesday evening. The low chance for those showers diminish overnight.
837 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 Record warmth is expected again today, but rain chance returns late tonight with a cold front. Insolation, a very warm atmospheric column, and mixing will again result in near-record warmth today as extensive high pressure over the ern CONUS further erodes. The resulting pressure gradient between east coast high pressure and midwestern low will support more this afternoon. A trough/associated cold front will tap into a growing plume of moisture to produce widespread rain showers tonight and Wednesday. High pressure and drier air will diminish rain chances behind the front, although light rain should continue along and ahead of it due to persistent warm, moist advection and strong jet dynamics within southwesterly flow aloft. Cooler air will be slower to filter in behind the front, leaving area temperatures above climatological averages Wednesday.
421 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 The cold front is currently draped across northwest MO to Kansas City, extending SSW from there toward southeastern Kansas. Showers are ongoing across NW Missouri and eastern Kansas, and these showers will continue to move the northeast over the next few hours, and will eventually take on a more eastward progression as the cold front currently across eastern Kansas swings west to east through the region this morning.
and Wednesday This is a complex forecast, with multiple weather concerns as a rapidly deepening cyclone lifts across the area tonight.