Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the upper levels, there is currently a trough near the North Dakota/ Canada border, which will swing a weak cold front into our area today. To the south, a deep upper level low is currently swinging onshore over southern California. We will remain between these two systems on Sunday, and will remain away from any impacts other than the passage of the dry cold front.
High clouds are moving in, along with warmer air. Dewpoint temperatures should remain right around freezing tomorrow, so while fog or low clouds later Sunday into Sunday night due to melting snow is a possibility, it is not a sure thing. A weak cold front will then veer the winds to the west northwest for Sunday night into Monday, but not brisk. High pressure will then move across Lake MI Monday night. A weak and dry cold front will pass Sun nt, with high temps to cool to around 40F for Monday. High pressure will then shift across srn WI Mon nt with low temps in the upper teens to 20s.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with areas of low pressure along the front range of the Rockies. LLWS has been maintained in the forecast for all terminals through daybreak, as the low level jet continues to strengthen. A cold front will move across the terminals Sunday afternoon exiting early in the evening.
Medium Low pressure will be shifting east through southern Canada to north of Lake Superior. A warm thermal ridge will be in place. Medium Cold front passes early and we thus will switch to a cool (not cold) advection regime as highs on Monday should reach normal or slightly above normal values in the upper 30s to low 40s. Not expecting any precipitation though the NAM is saying a bit more cloud cover within the low level thermal trough that will be across the area.
352 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 The morning surface analysis show an area of high pressure is progressing across Eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky this morning. This high pressure and clear skies is providing the platform for around 10 degree ridge/valley temperature split this morning. We will see somewhat more zonal flow at 500mb as the ridge/trough features remain more subtle. An area of high pressure sitting to our southeast will lead to VFR skies through the period.
239 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Mostly clear skies this morning have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing for yet another morning however, this is going to change over the next 24 hours.
A cold front has raced through the region today, with a surge of gusty surface winds in its wake. The front is associated with a weak trough moving through the Pacific Northwest. Moist northwest flow on the backside of the trough will introduce some showers over mountain areas overnight. Winds are expected to pick up across the lower valleys again Sunday afternoon.
Avery The well-advertised cold front is moving its way through the area right now. In addition to warmer than normal temperatures, the winds are also going to be up for much of the week, especially around midweek.
/Today through Monday/ The upper ridge has moved east of the region and flow aloft has become zonal ahead of an upper trough digging across the West Coast of the CONUS. A brief break from precip on Monday morning, but as the upper trough continues to dig across Southern California and the Northern Baja region of Mexico, flow aloft will start to transition from zonal to southwest.
A strengthening area of low pressure across the Southern Plains will interact will high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico today. Latest model guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will occur across the lower Rio Grande Valley this afternoon, with sustained wind speeds between 25 and 30 mph and gusts near 40 mph, possibly higher at times.
It will once again remain mild, although it will be a few degrees cooler than yesterdays max readings. After Monday with mid-level ridging kicking back in this weather can be described as capital B-o-r-i-n-g! Monday. Just a few lingering snow showers crossing the region as an elongated trough, tied to a deepening but too far south for us, closed low pressure system. The activity should wane by the early afternoon hours leaving slightly cooler temperatures in it's wake.
635 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will warm temperatures above normal this afternoon. Rain will work into the region tonight ahead of a cold front.
Showers will develop today over AR, likely joined by a few thunderstorms over east AR this evening, around the time the low level jet diurnally strengthens to 40 to 50 knots. Given the lack of any discernible synoptic disturbances in the flow, this instability may go untapped until the low level jet diurnally strengthens Monday evening.
735 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warm and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. Building high pressure under SW flow will allow temperatures to exceed the climatological average today and tonight. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will press through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
As expected, the cold front pushed through the Northern Rockies yesterday with minimal fanfare. However, a line of stronger post-frontal snow showers produced sufficient boundary layer moisture along its track (spanning from Sandpoint SE through Missoula) to result in some morning freezing fog and/or low stratus clouds.
There will also be a slight chance for light showers over the higher terrain in the coast mountains and for some inland areas such as in the Siskiyous, near Mount Shasta and over southeast Lake and eastern Modoc. A cooler air mass will remain in place today with highs in the lower 50s to upper 40s across western valleys and into the low 40s to upper 30s for valleys east of the Cascades. High pressure centered to the west will nudge into the area tonight and Monday. A weak front will move over the ridge.
931 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will warm temperatures above normal this afternoon. Rain will work into the region tonight ahead of a cold front.
422 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Upper level ridging will shift eastward over the Great Lakes region today, with westerly flow aloft becoming established across our area as an upper level trough/closed low digs southward along the coast of California. This will push a cold front south through region. The week ahead looks to be mainly dry as the upper low currently off the California coast heads east across the far southern portions of the country.
At the upper levels, westerly flow extended from the West Coast to the Gulf of Mexico, while a trough was located over the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level trough over the PacNorthwest should dig south today and settle in across southern California by late tonight.
Ridging today will result in warm temperatures in the 40s across the region with some potential to climb into the upper 40s, but cloud cover may inhibit that.
629 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southwester surface will continue to bring moisture and warm air into the Ozarks this morning and into today as low pressure and a cold front moves across the plains towards the area today. The cold front will have made its way across most the region by sunrise Monday morning.
609 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure over the forecast area this morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase this evening along/ahead of the advancing cold front in response continued forcing via the southwesterly LLJ and a weak migratory low amplitude disturbance in the quasi-zonal flow aloft. The latest guidance suggests the southward progression of the cold front will be a bit faster tonight and Monday, with the cold front now forecast to clear the CWA by 18z Monday. Glass The evolution and deepening of the northern stream upper trof begins to really take shape on Monday night. A lead disturbance may help promote backing of the low level flow sufficiently to spread rain/showers back northward into the cool air on Monday evening.
A chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers mainly Monday afternoon into Monday night along with much cooler temperatures.
328 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 The well-advertised cold front is moving its way through the area right now. In addition to warmer than normal temperatures, the winds are also going to be up for much of the week, especially around midweek.
207 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Current surface map places cold front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Nebraska.
619 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Upper level ridging will shift eastward over the Great Lakes region today, with westerly flow aloft becoming established across our area as an upper level trough/closed low digs southward along the coast of California. This will push a cold front south through region. The week ahead looks to be mainly dry as the upper low currently off the California coast heads east across the far southern portions of the country.
Mostly clear skies this morning have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing for yet another morning however, this is going to change over the next 24 hours.
355 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Ridging today will result in warm temperatures in the 40s across the region with some potential to climb into the upper 40s, but cloud cover may inhibit that.
429 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Current surface map places cold front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Nebraska.
Clouds and northwest breezy winds will keep the region cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s; albeit it will feel cooler than that. This ridge slides south of the forecast area on Monday afternoon, bringing back south winds into the area.
After a very chilly start this morning, the cool high pressure nearly over head will slide slightly to the east today providing a light onshore flow. The onshore flow will help to start moderating the airmass, and with plenty of solar insolation due to substantial dry air remaining aloft, it will be a few degrees warmer today than the previous few days (although still slightly below average).
556 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 An upper level trough will continue to lift away from the region today, and milder air will return to the region this afternoon.
954 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will build east from the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic coast today. A warm front will move northeast across the region tonight.
413 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will build east from the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic coast today. A warm front will move northeast across the region tonight.
As trough of low pressure progresses slowly south and east from northwest Oklahoma through the day, a northerly wind shift progress southward over the region late this afternoon and tonight. Cold front will reinforce the northerly flow with gusty north winds expected most areas late tonight and Monday.
A cold front will push south through the forecast area this morning resulting in increasing northerly winds. We will continue to lean towards the higher end of guidance wind values, which means we could see some sustained northerly winds around 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph by late morning into this afternoon. An elongated upper trough will stretch from California to just south of Hudson Bay Canada. However, this upper trough basically splits apart with most of the energy associated with a cut off low over California as well as the more northern portion of the upper wave over southern Canada.
There may be a period of VFR ceilings for Northwest Arkansas late afternoon/early evening before precip chances develop ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the region. The cold front looks to move through Northeast Oklahoma this evening with some scattered MVFR possible behind the front.
403 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warmer temperature and dry weather will return today. A building ridge will induce southerly flow, allowing temperatures to rebound significantly today. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will press through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows a trough over Oregon, with a strengthening southwest pressure gradient across northern Arizona. This trough is forecast to develop into a closed low and drop southward along the West Coast today. Model solutions appear to be consolidating around a forecast track that takes the low eastward through northern Mexico on Monday. Along with increasing confidence in the low track, probabilistic snow forecasts are indicating increasing confidence that this system will deliver only light snow accumulations.
With the upper level trough moving through the region, todayâs temperatures will be a lot cooler, with high temperatures only reaching into the 50s across the district. In addition, precipitation has begun to spread across the district this morning, and will continue into the evening as the trough moves through the area. After this trough exits the region, a ridge of high pressure will build across the area on Monday, increasing temperatures back to near average for the date.
A weak cold front will move through the terminals tomorrow morning shifting winds to the north. Monday's forecast is actually beginning to show a wider spread amongst the models as the NAM is becoming increasing bullish with pushing a cold front through all but the southwestern corner of the forecast area while the GFS is far weaker only bringing the front into northeastern quarter to third of the forecast area before stalling. Have opted for more of an even blend with the high temperature forecast, however, as the NAM seems overly aggressive with the extent of post-frontal stratus.
454 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 An upper level trough will continue to lift away from the region today, and milder air will return to the region this afternoon.
347 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A cold front will push south through the forecast area this morning resulting in increasing northerly winds. We will continue to lean towards the higher end of guidance wind values, which means we could see some sustained northerly winds around 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph by late morning into this afternoon. An elongated upper trough will stretch from California to just south of Hudson Bay Canada. However, this upper trough basically splits apart with most of the energy associated with a cut off low over California as well as the more northern portion of the upper wave over southern Canada.
705 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 An upper level trough will continue to lift away from the region today, and milder air will return to the region this afternoon.
538 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 It has been a very mild evening, with most of the MPX area still above freezing at 2am. This warmth is due to the fact that we were in the heart of a thermal ridge out ahead of a cold front moving across the Dakotas overnight. Given how high we'll be starting out this morning, even a modest warming of 10 degrees today will net highs into the low to mid 40s for most of the area, so warmed forecast highs a degree or two for today, getting us near the 75th percentile in the model spread. Continued CAA tonight will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens west and 20s east, with highs Monday coming in about 10 degrees cooler than what we see today.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft along with lee troughing at the surface will lead to a windy day across the area. Much warmer conditions are expected along the Rio Grande where high clouds look to be thinner. Attention then turns west to a large upper low that will dig along the West Coast Monday.
646 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will build east from the Ohio valley to the Mid Atlantic coast today. A warm front will move northeast across the region tonight.
417 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will warm temperatures above normal this afternoon. Rain will work into the region tonight ahead of a cold front.
1242 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warm and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. Building high pressure under SW flow will allow temperatures to exceed the climatological average today and tonight. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will press through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
248 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A cold frontal boundary bisected the forecast area this afternoon at 20Z as it extended from near Falls City to near Manhattan to south central Kansas. Areas of southeast into far east central Kansas have seen dewpoints rise into the lower 50s this afternoon. Tonight a mid level trough, which was over Montana this afternoon, will move southeast into Wyoming and Colorado. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 30s. The mid level trough will move across Nebraska and Kansas on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday night, A mid level trough will move across the northern and central Plains and sweep another frontal boundary through the area.
Upper low will continue its slow approach towards W TX Monday night, bringing increasingly swly flow aloft and continued sct shwrs.
231 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Afternoon temperatures running cooler than yesterday's values in most locations as an earlier frontal passage has resulted in persistent, although muddled, CAA. Additionally, an impulse running through the base of the mid level trough could be enough to spark a few sprinkles or flurries but with meager moisture, not worth a mention in the forecast at this point.
High pressure will continue to slide east over the Atlantic, and light east to southeast winds will increase low-level moisture to give east central Florida a milder night. Low temperatures will be mainly low 50s across inland areas but some normally cooler spots still may reach the upper 40s. Slightly warmer temps toward the coast with low to mid 50s. Temperatures return to above normal as high pressure pushes farther out over the Atlantic veering winds to south to southeast.
This enhanced moisture should be focused by a developing low- pressure system moving across the upper mid-West into New England and a cold front slowly moving SE from the Ozarks Monday morning.
1225 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will shift off the coast through tonight.
254 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from the western tip of Upper Michigan to Dubuque IA. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s west of the Mississippi River and from the lower 40s to lower 50s for the remainder of the area.
The cold front in northwest Oklahoma will continue to move southeast, and the relaxing gradient near the front will lower wind speeds this evening as well. Temperatures tomorrow will be noticeably cooler tomorrow north of the front, closer to average for this time of year.
It has been a very mild evening, with most of the MPX area still above freezing at 2am. This warmth is due to the fact that we were in the heart of a thermal ridge out ahead of a cold front moving across the Dakotas overnight. Given how high we'll be starting out this morning, even a modest warming of 10 degrees today will net highs into the low to mid 40s for most of the area, so warmed forecast highs a degree or two for today, getting us near the 75th percentile in the model spread. Continued CAA tonight will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens west and 20s east, with highs Monday coming in about 10 degrees cooler than what we see today.
Current MVFR ceilings will likely see some improvement this afternoon that should continue into the evening in advance of an approaching cold front. The gusty winds late this morning should also diminish some through the afternoon as the low level jet weakens. This should keep any fire weather concerns somewhat in check, as the highest wind speeds today will be offset from peak heating and the lowest humidities. There may be a period of VFR ceilings for Northwest Arkansas late afternoon/early evening before precip chances develop ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the region. The cold front looks to move through Northeast Oklahoma this evening with some scattered MVFR possible behind the front.
Southwester surface will continue to bring moisture and warm air into the Ozarks this morning and into today as low pressure and a cold front moves across the plains towards the area today. The cold front will have made its way across most the region by sunrise Monday morning.
Monday will be a challenging day for highs as a cold front will arrive sometime early Monday morning and stall out across the forecast area in the afternoon. Went with the higher-resolution models timing and position of the front which will likely result in a pretty good gradient in temperatures from northeast to southwest. Jordan A southern Pacific jet is quite prominent on water vapor imagery this afternoon, responsible for the high clouds we've been seeing.
1204 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will shift off the coast through tonight.
345 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure moves to off the southeast coast tonight.
A cold front organizes over western portions of the Southern Plains, then begins to move slowly east, increasing the low level flow on the west/northwest side of a low level ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico/northern Gulf Coast, bringing increasing levels of Gulf moisture inland. Looking at temperatures, increasing moisture levels along with increasing subsidence as a weak ridge begins to build over the Southeast will bring above seasonal temperatures back to the forecast area. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected Monday.
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving east across the northern Plains. Lower SFC-H5 heights along with more cloud cover will keep highs a bit cooler Today across the CWA. North central KS will see lower to mid 60s for highs, and they may be a few degrees cooler if the surface front moves southeast into north central KS a bit faster than progged. The CWA should remain dry with low-level CAA dropping low temperatures into the lower to mid 30s. Monday, the weak upper trough will shift southeast across NE and northern KS. an upper level trough across central CA will dig southward off the northwest Mexican coast line.
Winds aloft are expected to be strong as the low level jet picks up later tonight.
1127 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A cold front will push south through the forecast area this morning resulting in increasing northerly winds. We will continue to lean towards the higher end of guidance wind values, which means we could see some sustained northerly winds around 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph by late morning into this afternoon. An elongated upper trough will stretch from California to just south of Hudson Bay Canada. However, this upper trough basically splits apart with most of the energy associated with a cut off low over California as well as the more northern portion of the upper wave over southern Canada.
109 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will warm temperatures above normal this afternoon. Rain will work into the region tonight ahead of a cold front.
954 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Current surface map places cold front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Nebraska.
This corridor will likely stretch roughly from Columbus Kansas to Springfield, and then east along the Highway 60 corridor. A Flash Flood Watch for tonight is being considered for a narrow corridor from Columbus Kansas eastward along the Highway 60 corridor.
Satellite and radar show clear conditions this morning after an upper level trough has moved south out of the region. Today, upper level ridge will move over the region off the Pacific, bringing the region under a drier and cooler northerly flow aloft.