Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy conditions will also continue through into the evening hours as the low pressure to our south propagates eastward. Monday will remain windy as high pressure ridges over Lake Superior producing a strong gradient between the exiting low pressure system.
Rain chances then ramp up from the southwest late in the afternoon if not evening with the approach of a warm front. Some ebb and flow with temperatures but overall slightly cooler early on trending to slightly warmer than normal late. Wind will swing around to the west on Monday as the system exits to our northeast and then to the S or SW as a warm front approaches from the S. The trough associated with the front should allow wind speeds to drop for a time late Monday. For the mid week period expect an east to sometimes southeast direction on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range. More of a sustained southwest flow develops late ahead of a cold front.
This activity is occurring ahead of an upper low, easily viewed on regional radar loop over Arkansas. After this first band of showers weakens, more scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid State through the afternoon as the low from Ar moves closer. The greatest chances for that will be over our west counties this afternoon, then again over the eastern third of our area early afternoon Monday ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, we are still on track for another warm day with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will approach the region later tonight.
154 PM MDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper low continues to move off to the east as an upper ridge builds over the region from the west. At the surface, a relatively tight surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Dakotas/Nebraska and low pressure over Wyoming is producing breezy to windy southeasterly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. Breezy/windy conditions will continue overnight over northeastern Wyoming, the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills, and parts of northwestern South Dakota.
H5 heights will increase slightly as the ridge between between CA and TN River Valley lows builds into the region from the west. This will allow for much warmer highs on Monday with 80s and 90s expected. That said, did lean away from warmer bias corrected influenced blends given the ESE wind forecast. Again, the atmosphere seems to remain just capped, due to some warmer temps around H8-h7. There could be a very brief window where CIN erodes completely, but not seeing enough to introduce POPs given building ridge, etc.
233 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper low continues to slowly pull off to the south and east this afternoon with some lingering clouds and gusty northeast winds on the wraparound across the east. The upper ridge will push heights up to around 580. Warmer and dry conditions start the out period as upper ridging sits over the northern plains.
Winds will be NW in the wake of a cold front with VFR conditions expected areawide by tonight. Locally, showers were spiraling counterclockwise around an area of low pressure centered near Texarkana. The severe weather risk appears to be minimal at this time, however with the amount of spin associated with the surface and upper low, a few rotating showers or low topped supercells could produce a brief spin up tornado. Precipitation will come to an end on Monday with drier and cooler weather returning to the Natural State. On Monday, highs will range from the upper 60s across the N to the lower 80s across the Srn AR.
At midday, an elongated mid- and upper low was observed near the ARKLATEX region. A localized sfc-850 hPa maxima is forecast to be maintained over portions of our region (mainly translating along with the upper low) from roughly 3-15 UTC. Fortunately the system is forecast to be somewhat progressive with the aforementioned associated cold front moving to interior SE MS by late tomorrow afternoon. As an upper low approaches from the west, and eventually passes the region just after the end of the 17. Surface winds remain form a mostly southerly direction 5-15 kt, becoming more southwesterly by period's end from west to east as a cold front approaches form the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 916 AM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Update: Deep trough off the Pacific coast was pumping mid to high level clouds into the area. TWH Previous discussion: Northeast Montana looks set for dry weather conditions today along with warmer temperatures ahead of what appears to be a much more active pattern setting up during the week. Amplified upper ridging will shift downstream of the region as a deepening upper trough over the western U.
1036 AM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over far southeast SD with large ridge over the Rockies, and upper trof along the west coast. At the surface, ridge extends over western SD. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and much warmer temps expected with upper ridge shifting into the northern plains.
259 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper-level low pressure system that brought yesterday and today's rain will finally begin to exit the area this evening.
1235 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of rain Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
247 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Upper ridging will build into the region Monday, suppressing shower and thunderstorms development. Models are consistent in the expansion of an upper level ridge across the Southern Plains for the start and middle of the upcoming week.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 77 60 71 56 / 30 80 50 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 78 59 70 56 / 20 80 70 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 65 77 60 71 56 / 30 90 70 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 58 69 53 / 20 70 80 80 70.
At midday, an elongated mid- and upper low was observed near the ARKLATEX region. A localized sfc-850 hPa maxima is forecast to be maintained over portions of our region (mainly translating along with the upper low) from roughly 3-15 UTC. Fortunately the system is forecast to be somewhat progressive with the aforementioned associated cold front moving to interior SE MS by late tomorrow afternoon.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low moving east across northeast Nebraska this morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the system are forecast to continue through much of the day as high pressure building in behind the low strengthens the surface pressure gradient. Amplified upper level ridging builds overhead early this week with a closed off low over the eastern U. Meanwhile,a large trough will dig across the western U. Toward the end of the week, the western trough will begin to pivot into the northern Plains providing warmer temperatures and chances for thunderstorms. An intense deep-layer cyclone over central IA will continue slowly east-southeast with wrap-around low clouds and widely scattered showers affecting the area this afternoon.
Upper level low pressure system and associated cold front continue eastward today. More uncertainty over Southwest Idaho with thick mid level cloud cover in place which may keep temperatures cooler and the airmass more stable. Cold front will reach the Idaho/Oregon border late tonight with steady band of precipitation developing along and behind it.
Subsidence on the heels of an upper trough now over the Gulf will continue ushering in lower PWATs under one inch through Monday. As surface ridging peels east of the region this evening, light winds will veer more southeasterly which should support a better chance for some radiation fog by Monday morning throughout the Coastal Plains and Crossroads. Heights and thicknesses rebound nicely tomorrow ahead of a sprawling upper ridge.
A slow moving low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the area into the middle of the week. Short term models suggest cold front currently moving through western Illinois, will reach the western border zones this evening, towards 180000Z-180100Z. Will time the highest PoPs tonight along the frontal passage. Model data suggest cold front may be about half way through the forecast area by sunrise Monday. This front may tend to wash out over the eastern zones Monday, as the low level flow back due to an upper trough cutting off across Illinois.
Expect warmer than normal temperatures Monday ahead of an approaching weather system.
655 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper-level low pressure system that brought yesterday and today's rain will finally begin to exit the area this evening.
The convection is occurring along and ahead of a cold front. /issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Current satellite and station plots indicate a north/south cold front pushing towards eastern Arkansas.
311 PM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Upper low digging off the West Coast was putting the region under southwest flow, with clouds advecting over the area this afternoon. Leeside trough slides farther east on Monday inducing more of a downslope flow, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s with some locations nearing 90 degrees over central zones. As the previously mentioned upper low begins to move onshore and into the Great Basin, additional moisture and energy will advect north into the region in diffluent flow.
/Issued 252 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Northerly winds transporting drier air into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas continued to spread southward behind the departing cold front and low pressure system pushing eastward out of Arkansas. another closed low pressure system currently centered over Iowa was slowly drifting southeast with scattered cumulus clouds moving southward over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. and possibly scatter out this evening for a period before filling in again over parts of far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the closed low continues its southeastward trajectory. with the drier air and subsiding winds lows in the low to mid 50s still look possible for most locations.
605 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A sfc cold front from near STL to UNO will shift east. The persistent upper level blocking pattern will continue, gradually trying to break down or shift eastward toward the weekend. A persistent upper low just off to our east over the OH and TN Valley region will keep the cyclonic flow aloft over MO through Wed and can see periods of clouds, sprinkles, and cool temperatures sticking around awhile. Temperatures will gradually moderate by the end of the week as the upper low weakens and shifts east and upper level ridging moves over the area.
For the rest of tonight, Tropical Storm Arthur will continue to pull away from the region as a trough moves toward the area. Most of tonight should remain dry once the ongoing convection peters out, but then Monday looks like it should be more active as the trough enhances shower and thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the peninsula in a marginal risk for severe storms as this trough approaches and strong diurnal heating leads to moderate instability.
looks to be a more convectively active day, with an approaching mid level trough enhancing shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon.
The upper low continues to slowly pull off to the south and east this afternoon with some lingering clouds and gusty northeast winds on the wraparound across the east. The upper ridge will push heights up to around 580. Warmer and dry conditions start the out period as upper ridging sits over the northern plains.
702 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A cold front will move from central Illinois into Indiana this evening, resulting in showers and thunderstorms in central and eastern Illinois this evening. An area of low pressure associated with the front will move into Indiana by early Monday morning, and then come to an abrupt halt.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ An upper low/trough is over Louisiana and Arkansas with another upper low/trough over Iowa. Upper ridging is developing over southeast New Mexico and West Texas with another upper trough just off the west coast. Temperatures today will be a little warmer than yesterday with south to southeast winds. The upper ridge over the region will continue to strengthen and build northward on Monday.
823 PM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Upper ridge axis has built over the western Plains as upper low moved into IA.
/issued 309 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020/ Tropical Storm Arthur will move the north-northeast along the Carolina coast through tomorrow afternoon, as the upper level low over the Mississippi Valley shifts eastward across the Gulf coast states. The upper low is absorbed by the stronger low over the upper midwest during the day tomorrow as the front pushes into the forecast area by the end of the period.
521 PM MDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper low continues to move off to the east as an upper ridge builds over the region from the west. At the surface, a relatively tight surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Dakotas/Nebraska and low pressure over Wyoming is producing breezy to windy southeasterly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. Breezy/windy conditions will continue overnight over northeastern Wyoming, the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills, and parts of northwestern South Dakota.
/issued 247 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper ridging will build into the region Monday, suppressing shower and thunderstorms development. Models are consistent in the expansion of an upper level ridge across the Southern Plains for the start and middle of the upcoming week.
A cold front will approach the region later tonight.
An upper trough will move closer to the region Monday along with a frontal boundary. A closed upper low over Iowa will drift slowly southeast druing the period. A weak cold front approach on Monday and should make it into at least our Plateau counties by the end of the day.
932 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Cold front has moved into eastern Illinois late this evening and lingering showers over the far eastern CWA should exit the CWA shortly. Satellite imagery is showing that low clouds associated with upper low over Iowa is progressing southeastward across the area and should remain in place through tomorrow. Showers under this low will move south into the CWA later this evening and overnight as the low moves southeast.
/issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Current satellite and station plots indicate a north/south cold front pushing towards eastern Arkansas.
BT Upper low digging off the West Coast was putting the region under southwest flow, with clouds advecting over the area this afternoon. Leeside trough slides farther east on Monday inducing more of a downslope flow, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s with some locations nearing 90 degrees over central zones. As the previously mentioned upper low begins to move onshore and into the Great Basin, additional moisture and energy will advect north into the region in diffluent flow.
643 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Low pressure continues to move through eastern Arkansas and across the Mississippi River. High pressure will build into the state tonight and bring northwest winds with it.
Temperatures along the island chain are slowly dropping through the lower 80s, and winds on land are variable at 5 mph or less. This is due to the combination of Tropical Storm Arthur, centered about 260 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina as of 8 PM, and a cold front extending from the Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, with the Atlantic subtropical ridge displaced well to the east of our area. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a deep trough moving slowly eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Overnight, weak southerly steering flow should continue to usher the existing boundaries over the Straits northward, with radar trends indicating that the leading outflow may reach the Lower and Middle Keys prior to midnight.
424 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 This Evening through Monday: The low pressure system swinging across our area today into tomorrow is fairly dynamic, as evidenced by gusty winds "overachieving" around the area today. As the low pressure system continues eastward overnight, a weak cold frontal boundary will push through the area. It won't translate to much in the way of cooler weather, but max temps should at least be knocked down a few degrees from the mid to upper 80s parts of the area have seen today. By the afternoon, the last chances of showers or isolated thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area as the low pushes farther east. /NF/ Tomorrow night through the weekend: An anomalous upper low will dig slowly southeast across the MS to TN Valley region during the mid to late week.
An Unusually deep mid latitude trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes States equatorward to the south central Gulf of Mexico will translate slowly eastward over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a western Atlantic ridge will slowly retreat eastward, leaving our region in a very moist (PWAt>1. Finally the deep cyclonic gyre will lift northward, allowing the western Atlantic ridge to build westward and across the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters.
/Today through Tuesday Night/ Upper trof that has brought rain and other effects to our region over the last couple of days is finally departing to the e. Upper ridge axis amplified just to the e of the Rockies is now flexing its influence on our region, as a closed upper low spins over wrn IL. However, a weak, back-door cold front associated with the upper low over IL will move into our area tonight into Tuesday morning. Upper low will move swd into TN Tuesday, infringing upon the upper ridge's influence and bringing some lift. Latest deterministic model output indicates that we could see some isold/sct convection as the front interacts with weak vorticity maxima rounding the low.
Mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures will be the rule as an upper low pressure system gets cut off and meanders around the Ohio valley. Moisture streaming up ahead of a slowly moving low pressure system will keep rain over the area through the day. While the western counties have had more precipitation over the last day or so, the low sliding east and the cold front being through there should allow them to be on the drier side today. Rain will continue tonight and Tuesday as low pressure meanders south through Indiana and then starts heading southwest Tuesday night. The ample moisture supply along with a very slowly moving low pressure system and spokes of upper forcing will keep rain and a few thunderstorms over central Indiana until instability runs out when the low gets further south.
The upper trough west of the area currently will move eastward, bringing with it an increase in deep layer moisture today along with sufficient forcing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day.
/Tonight/ The evening water vapor imagery indicates the center of the nearly closed off upper trough having exited the region to the E into Wrn MS, with much drier air quickly spilling SE into Srn AR/N LA in wake of the trough.
Best chances are towards east central Wisconsin As the low pressure system moves to the southeast, northeast winds will continue with gusts of 20 to 30 mph today. For now have kept Tuesday afternoon dry, but if the low pressure system moves slower expect chances to be added to the afternoon period. Largest threat for lakeshore flooding and erosion will be along the shore of Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties where the highest winds and largest waves are expected today.
/Tonight/ The evening water vapor imagery indicates the center of the nearly closed off upper trough having exited the region to the E into Wrn MS, with much drier air quickly spilling SE into Srn AR/N LA in wake of the trough. /issued 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Aside from brief MVFR cigs in/near MLU through early evening, VFR conditions are expected, with the cu/AC cigs on the backside of the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley expected to diminish through 06Z Monday.
The rain will begin to taper off tonight and Monday as a rex block develops and forces the low southward on Tuesday, with dry easterly flow eroding the northern edge of the precip shield.
Upper level ridge will build over the northern Plains and into Manitoba to start the period and hold in place Tuesday.
This system will also bring a notable increase in winds and fire danger, especially across parts of southeast California and the lower Colorado River Valley. A large and seasonably strong upper trough is moving southward parallel to the Pacific coast, with the center of an accompanying upper low located near southern Oregon. The aforementioned upper trough will pivot eastward on Tuesday across the Great Basin.
400 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain control of the weather pattern across the area through the short range.
321 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 As the upper low proceeds to weaken and exit the region to the east this morning, its associated surface cold front is following suit. A few showers rotating around the low have maintained through the night and should continue to impact the region over the next few hours as the low continues to make its exit. Eventually, drier air filtering into the region from the NW will help to decrease shower activity on the backside of the low. The region should remain dry through the evening and overnight even as an anomalous upper low dives into the Mid-South from the Great Lakes. A vertically stacked closed low will drop out of the Great Lakes region and become cutoff from northern stream flow.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft moving east across the Western High Plains. 590 dm upper high centered over Mexico currently will build progressively northward through Monday night, with strong height rises, upper ridging, and subsidence over SW Kansas. 12z medium range models continue to depict impressive upper ridging aloft, from Minnesota to Mexico, with strong subsidence persisting over Kansas.
243 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Middle Tennessee is currently sandwiched between two upper lows. Looking west, more showers can be seen along the cold front just east of the Mississippi River. The break in the rain will not last long as a few scattered showers will possibly drop out of the north as the northern upper low begins to drift southward over our area. By 12z Tuesday, the upper low will be centered just north of Stewart County.
Pleasant and seasonable weather returns for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates.
With the low centered over northern IL, this persistent easterly, anomalous flow will continue today and there is still some weak isentropic lift on that flow trajectory. All I can think of is "Wait for it" as we keep having to push the clearing and warming off as the deep closed low slows its southeastward progression. Have made Tuesday cloudy and cooler, but it may be even cooler if it drizzles /50s/.
257 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Low level clouds/moisture was moving back into the region from the north early this morning as an upper level low centered across eastern Iowa moves south-southeast. 850mb-925mb moisture looks to remain above 80% for most of the day and evening therefore a cloudy day is in store, which will keep high temperatures about 10-15 degrees below average, in the lower-middle 60s. Clouds tonight will keep temps in the lower 50s. By Tuesday morning the upper low will be across western Kentucky with several lobes of energy spinning around it. Highs should be a few degrees warmer in the middle to upper 60s however will be highly dependent on how thick the cloud cover is as the low level flow will still be northerly.
358 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Water vapor loop indicated ridge building over ID and MT as upstream trough shortens in wavelength. Easterly low level flow will bring drier air into the area today with a high pressure system over James Bay. Ridge building will continue over the Northern Plains today through Tue.