Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The higher instability axis responsible for the "fun" continues to rapidly transit northward on the leading edge of notable deep layer moisture advection, with more of a showery band working back into the region from northwestern IA within an axis of weak but developing frontogenetic ascent. Have trended our forecast more in the southern camp of solutions for later tonight, with just a small risk for isolated thunder given remnant 100-200 J/kg elevated CAPE in the axis of strongest lift along the surface/elevated warm front. This was developing along an elevated warm front. From tonight into Friday, a cold front will slowly sink southward through the forecast area. The highest CAPES and the best 0-6 km shear will be this evening and this could result in the potential for some hail up to 1 inch in diameter.
527 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof invof of the Rockies, with jet streak rounding the base of the trof helping close off a low near the Four Corners. At the surface, low continues to deepen over nern CO with inverted trof extending through swrn into ncntrl SD. Best chance for isold -tsra will extend from the srn Blkhls ewd across srn SD closer to the Neb border near and east of the inverted sfc trof where some minimal cape exists. Pcpn should end from northwest to southeast overnight, but will continue through at least Friday morning over scntrl SD as upper low shifts into the cntrl plains. Transitory ridge will cross the nrn plains with dry and mild conditions and breezy NW winds (pcpn in scntrl SD will gradually end by afternoon).
827 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
Dryline surge now underway across eastern CO as expected and developing warm front across southwest NE. Strong moisture advection ahead of the southward advancing cold front will allow for a heavy rain setup as well should storms form and remain near the large scale boundaries. The upper level low will track across Kansas on Friday. Did lower high temperatures a few degrees to the lower 40s within the area of deformation as hourly temperatures during the day actually dipping into the upper 30s. As the upper level low moves east Friday night, the deformation of rain will move east and end Friday evening.
1047 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof invof of the Rockies, with jet streak rounding the base of the trof helping close off a low near the Four Corners. At the surface, low continues to deepen over nern CO with inverted trof extending through swrn into ncntrl SD. Best chance for isold -tsra will extend from the srn Blkhls ewd across srn SD closer to the Neb border near and east of the inverted sfc trof where some minimal cape exists. Pcpn should end from northwest to southeast overnight, but will continue through at least Friday morning over scntrl SD as upper low shifts into the cntrl plains. Transitory ridge will cross the nrn plains with dry and mild conditions and breezy NW winds (pcpn in scntrl SD will gradually end by afternoon).
1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Very challenging forecast with regard to the closed low which evolves across the central Plains during Friday. The NAM is a bit further north than the GFS/ECMWF, taking the low across far southern Kansas, instead of northern Oklahoma.
847 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 An upper level ridge continues to build north across the Mid- Mississippi Valley this evening shifting any rain chances well to our north and east. A gusty southeasterly wind tonight will gradually turn more into the south later tonight as a warm front shifts to our north with temperatures slowly rising overnight. The gusty southerly winds on Friday will help to push afternoon temperatures into the mid 70s across the west with a bit cooler readings east and south as some lower clouds track north into the area by afternoon.
A cold low pressure area will continue to move eastward across Arizona this evening.
1033 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Friday.
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK Panhandles, which will leave all terminals in subsidence on the backside today.
Southwest winds will stay around 15 to 20 knots through the night but will be switching to northwest as a cold front moves through Friday morning. Tomorrow is still looking very windy on the backside of the low.
918 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 The pressure gradient will weaken slightly tonight as high pressure builds to the northeast. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s across the interior and the upper 50s to lower 60s for the coastal areas. Northeasterly flow will become more easterly as high pressure shifts off to the northeast.
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Very challenging forecast with regard to the closed low which evolves across the central Plains during Friday. The NAM is a bit further north than the GFS/ECMWF, taking the low across far southern Kansas, instead of northern Oklahoma.
1141 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight and will lift into southern New England on Friday.
1027 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure dominates with easterly flow and evening surges into the weekend. Then the high settles south with a relaxing gradient. High pressure builds with limited rainfall.
Looking at the latest model guidance and surface observations, it appears precipitation generated by a lifting warm front will be minimal, at best, south of I-80. This is supported by the hi-res guidance and the latest nam/sref, and the fact that much of the shower activity that is out in Illinois and Indiana now is diminishing as the warm front lifts northeastward. However, even with some wet-bulbing, the threat for freezing rain appears low, with warm air surging aloft.
Overnight lows will be warmer than last night with the area in the 50 to 60 degree range.
Tomorrow is still looking very windy on the backside of the low.
734 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Friday.
Round of ridging will move in for Friday bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures.
920 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight and will lift into southern New England on Friday.
Clearing skies will allow temperatures to pass the current dew points into the lower 30s so should see at least some valley fog despite drier air advecting in from the northwest. Round of ridging will move in for Friday bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Clearing skies will allow temperatures to pass the current dew points into the lower 30s, so should see at least some valley fog despite drier air advecting in from the northwest. Round of ridging will move in for Friday bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 69 54 71 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 67 53 72 / 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 45 69 52 71 / 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 68 48 70 / 0 0 10 20.
756 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will drift off of the eastern seaboard tonight, allowing a warm front to lift into the region Friday. Patchy sleet and freezing rain is expected over central and northern areas from the early to late morning Friday before precipitation changes to all rain. separating milder air to the south from cooler air and showers north. We have a slight chance of freezing rain in southeastern PA but think rain will be dominant and very light. Any freezing rain should change to rain or drizzle rather rabidly. High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower 60s. All are indicating a boundary just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low moving through the central midwest.
240 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Current satellite imagery indicates the TN valley should remain clear or mostly clear today as a band of CI/CS streams across the deep south and cold advection clouds remain to our northeast associated with the departing upper trof. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s are still expected in valley areas, while the higher Cumberland Plateau areas in TN/northeast AL only reach around 40 to 43. Not too much change in thinking for Saturday with a well defined area of isentropic ascent across the lower MS shifting east through the day. As strong warm air advection continues, the thermal/moisture ridge at 850 mb will also shift east across AL/middle and eastern TN Saturday Night.
The closed low off the Southern California Coast could be seen making some eastward progress on satellite loops and it has entrained sufficient moisture. The low opens up and weakens as it moves inland on Friday. Good model agreement in QPF placement with San Bernardino County targeted with the highest precipitation totals.
336 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 An intense area of low pressure near Bar Harbor early this morning will lift north along the Maine border with New Brunswick this morning, and north of the Gaspe Peninsula by early this evening. Weak high pressure builds into the region Saturday.
1137 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Areas of cloudiness will continue to rotate around the upper trough over the Great Lakes Region overnight. Winds will also slowly die off overnight as the trough shifts east and high pressure starts to build in from the west. Northwest winds will continue into the overnight hours as high pressure continues to build into the region. Tomorrows high temperatures will be a couple degrees above todays as the flow becomes more southerly and the ridge axis moves over the forecast area. Ridging Friday night will quickly move off to the east in the fast zonal flow as another weather system moves quickly into the area for the first part of the weekend.
Cooler temperatures with a few showers possible through the middle of the new week.
Saturday will feature warmer temperatures and a low chance for light rain and snow late in the morning and afternoon.
Northerly winds will remain less than 10 knots through the night, as the high settles in, with winds eventually becoming east on Friday Morning and southeast on Friday Afternoon, as the high moves across. This high pressure system will also bring dry conditions in the low levels to keep VFR conditions through the period, with just high level clouds moving overhead. Cold front has advanced deep into the gulf waters and radar now absent of any precip. This time around however, warmer temperatures will be accompanied by considerable rainfall.
334 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 A thermal ridge builds to around 10C at h850mb today. A cold front drops through tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest Saturday as high pressure shifts east across KS into MO. Warmer air will quickly move into the area with H850MB temperatures rising from -5C to 2C through the day.
The highest accumulations are expected near I-80 and over the highest ridges in the east. Cold air will begin to exit to the northeast, as a mid level ridge build over the Upper Ohio Valley. Snow showers will continue in the north and ridges through the evening, but accumulations will end. Latest model thickness data is showing the lower levels warming enough to allow for at least a mix of rain and snow if not a transition to all rain particularly over the southern half of the area. Models continue to show surface temperatures across the entire area rising above freezing, with readings south of Pit reaching the low 40s.
1040 PM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 An upper level ridge over the area has been keeping the weather dry today and has resulted in relatively light winds in most locations. The upper ridge will be flattened over the area tonight as an upper trof moves into the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies. At the same time an upper low will move to just off the southern CA coast. Westerly breezes tonight near the mtns should keep temps relatively warm, while other areas without wind tonight will be a littler cooler. On Friday, the flow aloft will be westerly and the mountains, the lower east slopes and the I-25 corridor will likely see some breezy conditions in the afternoon. Temps will generally be warmer on Friday, with the southeast plains seeing the biggest increase in temps over today.
315 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Manitoba southward to Texas will shift into the Midwest today. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front, which will keep low temperatures on the mild side in the lower to middle 30s. A clipper system evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will track into northern Michigan, pulling a weak cold front into Illinois by Saturday afternoon.
Southerly winds will become gusty during the afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of approaching cold front.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ A negatively tilted ridge axis to our west will flatten leading to zonal flow across the region into Friday. The barometer definitely shows the high with readings early this afternoon in Lubbock showing 30. Despite the high surface pressure, we're still seeing some thick cirrus move into the region from Mexico. The approach and passage of this fast moving disturbance will coincide with a weak cold front which will traverse the area during the day.
/issued 944 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ The evening sfc analysis depicts sfc ridging over NW TX centered just N of ABI. but these should mostly decouple overnight with the approach of the ridge.
Cold front has pushed south of Central Alabama, with a noticeably cooler northwesterly wind bringing drier air to the area. Currently temperatures range from the lower 50s in the north to mid 60s in the southeast. This will keep skies clear and temperatures just below seasonal norms with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s and highs tomorrow in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Friday night, with high pressure sliding across the area and lighter winds, overnight lows will be slightly cooler: upper 20s in the far northwest and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Bordeaux area with a good shot at seeing sustained winds over 40 MPH and gusts around 60 MPH. Models continue to show a ridge axis aloft weakening as it moves across the forecast area tonight and Friday. This will result in zonal flow aloft with much warmer temperatures on Friday due to downslope winds and 700mb temperatures increasing above zero. with the exception of the northern zones as the first of a series of cold fronts begins to move into the area from the north. Temperatures will lower into the single digits and teens by early Saturday morning with highs struggling to reach the low to mid 30's during the day.
305 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Upper level trough and northwest flow drive upslope snow through much of today. It appeared that a mid-level trof moved southeast across Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania into Maryland several hours ago with possibly less coverage of the showers in its wake. High pressure then begins to build in with the precipitation decreasing across the lowlands during the afternoon hours. Still expect snowfall amounts will range from 8-10 inches across the highest elevations to little or snow accums across portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. Snow will come to an end in the mountains Friday night as high pressure builds in. Next system will approach from the west Saturday with a warm front quickly pushing north.
Low temperatures tonight should be cooler than last night and dip into the 20s due to the high pressure over the area and calmer winds. The strong winds coupled with RH values in the low 30s creates another elevated fire weather day for Friday afternoon. The shift to southerly winds Friday morning will also allow warmer temperatures to move into the area.
Dry and seasonably cold weather today will be followed by warmer temperatures and a low chance for light rain and snow Saturday.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. The strongest cold front so far this winter season will pass through the Florida Keys this morning. An area of high pressure will progress eastward through the southeastern United States this afternoon and tonight, before entering the southwest Atlantic Ocean Saturday. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the southeastern United States Saturday night and New Years Day. The highest chance of rain in the short term portion of the forecast is this morning ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to drift off to the East allowing low pressure to shift out of the Plains into the Upper Midwest. A weak warm front associated with the low will move across the forecast area during the day on Friday. Soundings indicate some mid and high level moisture which will produce some clouds tomorrow but there will be too much dry air in the lower levels to expect precip.
Trended lows tonight towards the lower end of the guidance envelope with the expectation that temps will fall off when winds subside coincident with the ridge passage. The lack of atmospheric moisture should stymie overnight fog development as the ridge passes. This advancing trough will help to push a weak surface cold front across the CWA late Friday night into early Saturday morning, but only expect some scattered clouds with the frontal passage.
130 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the southwest, with an unusually strong pressure gradient force contributing to breezy overnight conditions. We can expect return flow by tonight, and considerable moisture advection by Saturday morning as the next cold front approaches from the west.
Went with the warmer side of guidance for highs thinking a good amount of sunshine and decent vertical mixing (similar to today) will promote warmer temperatures. A weak surface boundary will bisect the forecast area with lower surface dewpoints/slightly cooler air northwest of the boundary and increasing surface dewpoints/warmer air southeast of the boundary.
Rather strong gradient winds at the surface will persist while once again becoming gusty during the day before relaxing by this evening as 850 mb ridge builds over the area. Aloft, 500 mb trough axis shifts eastward off the US Atlantic coast by this afternoon as 110+ KT jet exits the NE corner of the area this afternoon. With very limited moisture left, expecting only to see very limited accumulations of less than an inch possible in the higher terrain ending by this afternoon. Clearing skies across the entire area tonight will allow for temperatures to drop into the upper teens over higher terrain and from the lower to middle 20s across many valley locations.
/issued 932 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Midevening skies were clear over the lower and middle MS River valley. A 1034mb surface pressure ridge centered over TX was driving light westerly winds across the Midsouth. This ridge is progged by the short range models to move only slightly east overnight. High pressure is currently centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle at this time. The high is forecast to move southeast into North Texas tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably chilly with lows Friday morning mainly in the lower 30s. On Friday, the high will scoot to the east and reach central Alabama. Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the low to mid 50s. By Friday night, a cold front will start to approach the region from the northwest. On Saturday, the cold front will continue to move closer to the forecast area.
429 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Snow showers will be on the decrease today, as high pressure builds into the southeast states, and extends northward into the Ohio Valley.
1008 PM PST Thu Dec 29 2016 Snow will increase tonight as a cold front pushes across the region. There is a slim risk for freezing rain but given surface temperatures the risk is low, but it will be monitored.
Breezy northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph will continue to diminish as high pressure moves over the region. Behind the clipper, cooler air will push in.
Winds will gradually diminish through the day today as the ridge axis moves overhead. Then mid level clouds will spread into the area during the afternoon as the ridge moves off to the east. Medium Low pressure is proggd to be just to our north early in the day with a cold front extending into srn WI.
101 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure will build into central North Carolina from the west today, settle over the area tonight, then rapidly shift offshore during the day Saturday. Aside from a potential for scattered Cu at ~4500 ft AGL, expect clear skies with noticeably cooler temperatures today (highs 42-47F) in assoc/w strong cold advection, the bulk of which will occur between 06-18Z today. Winds will further decrease after sunset, eventually becoming light/variable or calm after midnight as high pressure settles over central NC from the west. Although increasing upper level cloud cover will act to mitigate insolation during the afternoon hours, strengthening warm advection should allow highs to rebound into the lower/mid 50s. Expect lows Sat night warmer than tonight as a result of increasing mid/upper level cloud cover, ~40 degrees.
High cloudiness associated with offshore closed low vcnty 32N/125W have spread Nwd to near RBL/RDD. These clouds should then push Ewd by Fri morning as Wly/cyclonic flow from Pac NW trof crosses the CA/OR border. With moist ground and high humidity, fog is more likely Fri morning than past few mornings given above freezing dewpoints. Dewpoints below freezing make frost a greater probability than fog. Made adjustments to timing of precip on Sun with trof slower to move into Norcal. The GFS WBZs for the RDD area Mon/Mon nite noted to be below freezing with ice in the snow growth zone, -10 to -20 Deg C. Upper low pressure system is forecasted to develop over Oregon late Friday afternoon and drop south to near the San Fransisco Bay early Saturday afternoon.
334 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Upper level trough and northwest flow drive upslope snow through much of today. It appeared that a mid-level trof moved southeast across Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania into Maryland several hours ago with possibly less coverage of the showers in its wake. High pressure then begins to build in with the precipitation decreasing across the lowlands during the afternoon hours. Still expect snowfall amounts will range from 8-10 inches across the highest elevations to little or snow accums across portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. The 00Z model guidance is a bit slower with bringing through the warm front and now is indicating that colder air will likely remain in place in the mountains. However, temperatures across the Lowlands will be plenty warm enough for precip to fall as plain rain.
Colder and much drier airmass will continue to build down into the area today in a breezy N/NW flow behind the cold front. Highs will only be able to reach the low to mid 60s over much of the region this afternoon, which is around a 20 degree drop in max temps from yesterday. Broad high pressure will exit the SE coast over the open Atlc early in the period with cool morning lows inland.
Synoptic Setup: A narrow pacific trough runs from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest through northern Idaho and southern Saskatchewan and towards the cold core center over the Hudson Bay. northeast Montana lies under zonal flow as the trough drops south through the area. Farther northwest another ridge is nosing in from the Gulf of Alaska into northern british COlumbia and dropping south in the flow. directly behind that is yet another trough moving through the Alaska north-slope. Today through Saturday: A succession of the trough today followed by the ridge upstream will pass through the area. However, the effects of the ridge will mute out as it dissipates in the flow by saturday Afternoon.
218 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Upper level pattern will become more zonal today which will encourage a surface lee-side trough to strengthen to our west. This trough will encourage southwest surface winds to increase today. Upper level low off of the southern California coast will move this way, but it will weaken as it does so. What is left of this low will move across the panhandles on New Year's Eve.