Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite showing a band of mid level clouds over the area this morning which has kept temperatures warmer this morning. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday but still well above normal.
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure building in this afternoon clears the skies, with a cool, fall like weather expected tonight. Sunny skies last into tomorrow with the high slowly moving off to the east. Return flow on the backside of the high brings in warmer, more humid air as we head into the weekend. Cooler air aloft and warm lake temperatures has allowed for a few weak showers to struggle but as subsidence increases and peak heating passes, these showers will dissipate. High pressure in place keeps skies mostly clear and with dry air in place, it will feel like another fall day.
1130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a subtropical ridge over Utah early this morning.
This is all thanks to high pressure/subsidence over the area. In other words, max temps are a couple of degrees warmer and min temps a few degrees cooler than forecast. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies and pleasantly warm days and very comfortable nights in the short term. Lows should bottom out in the mid 50s with highs on Thursday in the lower to mid 80s.
The stout upper level high pressure is keeping its stronghold over the western U. , with troughing over the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure remains over our area and stretches northeast into the Great Lakes region. The easterly surface flow will keep us dry and on the cooler side today and tomorrow. Highs are forecast to be in the low 80s today and low to mid 80s tomorrow, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Dew points are also on the lower side (upper 50s to low 60s), making it feel like the actual temperature readings.
1206 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon will drift over our forecast area tonight before exiting across New England on Thursday.
222 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will drift over our forecast area tonight before exiting across New England on Thursday.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 84 68 84 67 / 40 70 70 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 84 67 84 67 / 30 70 50 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 66 84 67 84 66 / 30 70 50 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 82 65 81 64 / 30 70 40 80 50.
Continued deep layer SW flow with embedded mid/upper impulses on the eastern periphery of the lower MS Valley cut off low will maintain a feed of high and mid level moisture, so left skies mostly cloudy overnight. A deepening mid to upper level trough over the TN Valley and southeast States should continue and possibly close off into a weak upper low to the west southwest of the forecast area through Thursday. Strong H5 ridge causing all the heat over the southwestern U.
Otherwise, area of high pressure over the southern Great Lakes region continues to dominate, resulting in dry and fair weather conditions through the end of the week.
636 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog in the valleys of the Alleghenies will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday) based on model 800mb temps.
Southerly winds tonight won't be quite as still as the night prior, keeping temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. Any sort of elevation could see even warmer temperatures and quicker southerly winds. Continued southerly flow and sunny August skies will leave Thursday a bit warmer than Wednesday, if by just a couple of degrees.
A chance of thunderstorms will continue through this evening over over the higher elevations of the Sierra, and over the far eastern portion of the Kern County deserts.
528 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday).
1034 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will drift over our forecast area tonight before exiting across New England on Thursday. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
733 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday.
1047 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure and associated dry air mass will bring mainly clear skies and light wind overnight. Early morning fog in the valleys of the Alleghenies will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday) based on model 800mb temps.
0" of PW, meager moisture in the lower troposphere (dpd approaching 6-7 degC), moderate ML instability, and weak inhibition.
924 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High res models are pointing toward better fog potential in our northern counties, closest to the ridge axis. High pressure at the surface extending from Missouri through Illinois into the eastern Great Lakes will produce clear skies through Thursday night. Under the center of the ridge axis winds should be light enough tonight for patchy fog to develop, generally north of I-72.
This anticyclone maximum will lead to substantial increase in anticyclonic flow trajectories and subsidence locally. Thermal reflection under shearing deformation axis is expected to result in increase southwest geostrophic flow in advance of the trough. * None Latest satellite images show some mid cloud trying to stream southeastward in lower MI but having the heart of the ridge over the region is prevent much advancement south. The ridge will continue to drift eastward through tonight which will allow the return of southwesterly flow into the region. Mid level heights will not change too much as the current trough pulls away because we get more into a zonal, split flow pattern. Euro favors the warm solution with ridging dominating while the GFS shows some deeper troughs making it down into the Great Lakes.
732 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog in the valleys of the Alleghenies will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday) based on model 800mb temps.
Should be a mostly dry night ahead as temps settle in the low to mid 70s.
Very hot temperatures will continue this week, and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of northern Arizona through Thursday. A large area of upper level high pressure remains centered from northern Arizona through Utah this afternoon and will make very little movement over the coming days. The high pressure overhead is limiting steering flow and storms have struggled to move off the higher terrain.
642 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High pressure at the surface extending from Missouri through Illinois into the eastern Great Lakes will produce clear skies through Thursday night. Under the center of the ridge axis winds should be light enough tonight for patchy fog to develop, generally north of I-72.
Somewhat deeper moisture in a general trough axis will keep chances for showers going on Thursday.
959 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 A nearly stationary longwave trof will remain the primary weather feature overnight. The Mid-South will remain in a broad upper level trough through the early part of the weekend. Models are showing a weak upper level low pressure system developing within the upper trough.
These storms that initiate across the higher terrain attempt to propagate west-southwest, but they will encounter a less and less hospitable environment. How far it can persist into the lower elevations remains questionable. The upper high is forecast to meander around central to northern Arizona over the next several days, keeping us in favorable easterly flow.
943 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday.
621 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 A mid-level low pressure system will help support another round of isolated thunderstorms across portions of western and southwest Nebraska this evening.
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Widely scattered showers have persisted across western Oklahoma through early this afternoon, moving southward around the periphery of the upper ridge centered to our west. Models suggest this activity may be a little more widespread than this morning's, so poPs were raised into the low chance category for our far southwest counties.
/issued 236 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ Upper level ridging continues to ridge over Cuba while upper level troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The troughing digs further south on Thursday as a closed low develops in the base of the trough near LA on Thursday evening.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just west of the Four Corners, allowing for meridional flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As we progress into the weekend, long-range models are in agreement in drifting the ridge south to central AZ by 12Z Fri, then up to the Four Corners by 12Z Sun.
733 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will drift over our forecast area tonight before exiting across New England on Thursday. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
620 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Surface observations show high pressure settling into the Middle Mississippi Valley with surface winds generally out of the east/northeast across the CWA. Dry air in the low levels associated with this feature will continue to keep skies mostly clear and humidity low through the rest of the afternoon into tomorrow. With the high pressure remaining in place, afternoon highs tomorrow will rebound into the low- to mid-80s under mostly clear skies. Elmore To start the period, an upper-level cut-off low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will begin to transition northeastward across the Tennessee Valley.
These storms that initiate across the higher terrain attempt to propagate west- southwest, but they will encounter a less and less hospitable environment. How far it can persist into the lower elevations remains questionable. The upper high is forecast to meander around central to northern Arizona over the next several days, keeping us in favorable easterly flow.
532 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high circulation centered over AZ. HZ due to wildfire smoke circulating around the upper high will continue over western and central NM but in general VFR conditions will prevail. Unseasonably strong high pressure moving into the Four Corners will continue delivering near record heat to New Mexico through the end of this week. There is just enough moisture lingering over the region to support daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms around the high terrain and nearby valleys.
1035 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 The strong summertime ridge remains anchored on southern UT, with waves sweeping around the northern periphery across the northern Rockies into WY.
247 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper level ridge is getting knocked down a little at a time by upper level disturbances. One of these waves is moving through early this morning, another will push through late morning, and a strong wave moves into western zones late this afternoon and moves across the area tonight pushing a cold front through.
An upper ridge and a moist and unstable southwest flow may cause a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm this evening over Wallowa County, otherwise conditions will become stable with cooler temperatures during the next few days. An upper low pressure system will develop over the Gulf Of Alaska and cause a southwest flow aloft to return on Thursday.
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today under high pressure.
A large area of low pressure aloft, spinning across Gulf Coast states, will provide the lift and flux of low level moisture needed to spark showers and storms across the area.
A dry cold front will move through the area from west to east tonight. This will help to bring cooler temperatures across the forecast area tomorrow. Cooler conditions will finally bring some relief from heat related impacts, though temperatures will still be around 5 degrees above normal. Dry cold front pushing through this evening.
308 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will continue to provide pleasant summer days the rest of this week.
Very hot temperatures will continue this week, and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of northern Arizona through Thursday. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations (below 4500 feet) remains in effect through 8 PM Thursday evening. A large area of upper level high pressure remains centered from northern Arizona through Utah this afternoon and will make very little movement over the coming days. The high pressure overhead is limiting steering flow and storms have struggled to move off the higher terrain.
The current weather pattern is dominated by large scale ridging over the southwest United States with northwest flow aloft over the Missouri River Valley. As this ridge shifts east over the next few days, temperatures will begin a steady climb.
439 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Under a clear sky, temperatures will rise into the lower 80s by late afternoon.
Overnight, increased low-level moisture, from an unusually positioned trough for this time of year, prompted increased sky cover for TXK and ELD at 11Z to 16Z.
Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level trof axis remaining in place over swrn MS/sern LA. Rain chances increase later this afternoon as the mid/upper-level trof continues drifting back wwd toward the forecast area while the sfc boundary lifts nwd just onshore. best POPs remain across the sern zones where moisture is a little better, plus proximity to the low aloft.
237 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper ridge will remain centered over the southwest CONUS with modest northerly flow aloft across the Plains the next few days.
249 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure aloft is firmly entrenched over the US Southwest with a trough in Hudson Bay leaving us in between under northwest flow.
434 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over our forecast area will exit across New England through tonight.
Broad upper troughing will continue to remain over the Mid-South for the next several days. However, by the afternoon cloud cover and rain chances will increase with the best chance for rain and storms East of the MS River given placement relative to troughing.
239 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 A large upper level high pressure area centered near the four corners region will move little the next several days and will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Highly meridional flow continues across the region through the short range with a mid-level ridge over the western CONUS, and trof east. Unfortunately, model QPFs are all over the place, thus the low confidence in any one solution.
406 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over Pennsylvania this morning will move off the southern New England coast tonight.
Overnight, increased low-level moisture, from an unusually positioned trough for this time of year, prompted increased sky cover for TXK and ELD at 11Z to 16Z. /issued 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ In the 19/00Z TAF period, NNE flow continues around a ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains. Our main vsby concerns include MVFR conditions, as some additional low-level moisture is introduced overnight from a trough to our east.
415 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Amplified upper trough axis remains west of the area placing the region under continued enhanced southwesterly flow and ample Gulf moisture advection.
10 area -- Well above normal temperatures and predominately dry -- Through the upcoming weekend southwest Michigan will remain sandwiched between an active frontal zone to our north and a srn stream trough lifting northeast from the Gulf Coast. The air mass inbetween these two features remains relatively dry for August, with PWATs only around one inch and surface ridging prevailing.
203 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Surface observations show high pressure settling into the Middle Mississippi Valley with surface winds generally out of the east/northeast across the CWA. Dry air in the low levels associated with this feature will continue to keep skies mostly clear and humidity low through the rest of the afternoon into tomorrow. With the high pressure remaining in place, afternoon highs tomorrow will rebound into the low- to mid-80s under mostly clear skies. Elmore To start the period, an upper-level cut-off low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will begin to transition northeastward across the Tennessee Valley.
158 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure builds in through Thursday.
This will primarily impact temperatures, with slightly warmer, more humid air spreading across the region. With the stout ridge remaining parked over the Four Corners, a return to more southerly boundary layer and low layer flow will set up.
210 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over our forecast area will exit across New England through tonight.
After midnight, expecting dry conditions and low temperatures in the lower 60s. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s and lows Thursday night will be in the lower 60s.
High pressure should maintain clear skies and dry weather tonight.
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 A mid-level low pressure system will help support another round of isolated thunderstorms across portions of western and southwest Nebraska this evening.
/issued 959 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ A nearly stationary longwave trof will remain the primary weather feature overnight. The Mid-South will remain in a broad upper level trough through the early part of the weekend. Models are showing a weak upper level low pressure system developing within the upper trough.
Weak energy moving over the ridge is helping to produce a few showers/storms across the region. At the surface, a trough and stationary boundary stretch across the Dakotas, resulting in light winds generally from the southwest across the CWA.
253 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 07Z water vapor imagery continues to show a blocking pattern with high pressure centered over the four corners region. Meanwhile upper troughs over the lower MS river valley and the Gulf of Alaska have not moved much. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continued to ridge into eastern KS. Highs today should be about the same or a degree or two warmer than yesterday's. The blocking pattern is progged to persist through the weekend.
Continued deep layer SW flow with embedded mid/upper impulses on the eastern periphery of the lower MS Valley cut off low will maintain a feed of high and mid level moisture, so left skies mostly cloudy overnight. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 82 69 84 / 70 60 80 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 68 82 67 84 / 60 50 80 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 82 68 84 / 60 40 80 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 80 65 83 / 60 30 80 50 80.
Temperatures are slowly expected to moderate as 850-hPa temperatures climb back above +15C and the aforementioned ridge slowly weakens.
High temps for today should be in the low to mid 80s, which is a bit cooler than mid August normal highs, but slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday.
Generally expect south winds with peak gusts into the 20s with high temperatures ranging from the lower 90s west of I-29 to the 80s farther east.
348 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today.
Mid level flow will continue to be out of the north today as the upper level ridge stays in place over the Rockies. At the surface a lee side trough will continue in eastern Colorado allowing winds to be out of the south and pick up by later this afternoon. Upper level flow will continue out of the north as the ridge over the Rockies.
Used a blend of the warmer guidance to account for early filtered sunshine, a deep mixed layer, and weak WAA at H85 under southerly flow. The jet quickly weakens when a trough ejects off the higher terrain. Made little change to forecast min temps in the lower 60s west and mid 60s east.
1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Widely scattered showers have persisted across western Oklahoma through early this afternoon, moving southward around the periphery of the upper ridge centered to our west. Models suggest this activity may be a little more widespread than this morning's, so poPs were raised into the low chance category for our far southwest counties.
(Today and tonight) An area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern TX panhandle and western OK is expected to drift slowly south around the eastern edge of the large upper high over the western U. Plentiful mid-level moisture moving south through the high plains will keep more high and mid cloud over western OK than areas farther east, but by afternoon, skies are expected to clear sufficiently for temperatures in the mid and upper 90s.
A large upper ridge that extends from the southwest U. A slow moving upper trough that extends the Tn Vly to the lower MS Vly will produce some showers well southeast of the area. Not much change in the overall pattern through much of this period with a large upper ridge centered over the central Rockies and weak sfc ridging over our area.
320 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Most of the short term will feature another pesky, slow moving mid level trof which will start off near the northern Gulf Coast today, then nudge it way north toward the TN/OH Valley region with time. For today, a good portion of the region will be dry, with the trof off well to the south.
The high pressure center will shift south into Arizona tonight into tomorrow, allowing midlevel moisture to increase across the area.
1106 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High res models are pointing toward better fog potential in our northern counties, closest to the ridge axis. High pressure at the surface extending from Missouri through Illinois into the eastern Great Lakes will produce clear skies through Thursday night. Under the center of the ridge axis winds should be light enough tonight for patchy fog to develop, generally north of I-72.
240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Quiet/seasonally mild weather will continue, with the forecast area remaining in northerly flow aloft between the western states ridge and MS valley trof.
622 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 (Today and tonight) An area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern TX panhandle and western OK is expected to drift slowly south around the eastern edge of the large upper high over the western U. Plentiful mid-level moisture moving south through the high plains will keep more high and mid cloud over western OK than areas farther east, but by afternoon, skies are expected to clear sufficiently for temperatures in the mid and upper 90s.
A weak area of low pressure riding the U. The warming trend will continue with highs in the low 80s today and mid 80s on Friday.
Broad upper troughing will continue to remain over the Mid-South for the next several days. However, by the afternoon cloud cover and rain chances will increase with the best chance for rain and storms East of the MS River given placement relative to troughing. Given enhanced southwest flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft some organized convection, damaging winds and small hail are possible this afternoon.