Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An associated cold front is pushing through the area currently stretching from near Hallock southwestward into Dickey County North Dakota. High pressure will build into the area for Sunday with much below normal temperatures expected as cooler air settles into the region. A few showers will be possible in the far northeast as a secondary upper low rotates southward from Manitoba/Ontario into the Great Lakes Sunday. Continued mainly dry conditions into Sunday night with the high overhead, and cooler overnight temperatures expected down into the 50s, with maybe a few upper 40s. Return flow begins and increasing thickness with the amplifying upper ridge will help temperatures rebound across the area.
This will also lead to cooler temperatures than we have seen recently, with highs this afternoon ranging from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south. Elsewhere, lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will be even a touch cooler than today in some places with widespread highs in the 70s.
236 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 If you think it is a little "cooler" outside than previous days, you are correct! This afternoon, temperatures are struggling to climb into the 90s for a large portion of our area. Overnight lows will range in the lower to middle 70s. Tomorrow, ridging will begin to build over the ArkLaMiss region, which will increase the chances of dangerous heat stress.
As it does so, upper-level ridging over the Rockies will start building eastward, before anchoring itself over the south central US on Sunday. This will allow for north to northeasterly flow aloft to return to the local region as we become situated under the southeastern periphery of this ridge. At the surface, strong high pressure remains in place over the Western Atlantic, helping to maintain a light southerly to southeasterly flow across the area. With the upper ridge building in, highs on Sunday will increase into the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge now east of the Four Corners, making its move to the southeast CONUS. Closer to home, temperatures look to be cooler today than yesterday, w/850mb temps coming down on the 12Z KMAF sounding a degree or two from 24 hours ago. However, hi-res models suggest that, while remaining above-normal, they'll be a couple of degrees cooler than last night. Sunday, the ridge develops into Oklahoma, allowing minimum thicknesses over West texas and Southeast New Mexico, yielding afternoon highs only 3-4F above normal.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level high will continue to remain the dominant player in our weather over the short-term. The core of the high has begun to move east out of the Four Corners region and into the northern New Mexico/southern Colorado area. Conditions are expected to stay dry with the closer proximity of the upper high increasing subsidence across the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge doesn't look to strengthen tomorrow so temperatures will be comparable to today in the upper 90s to low 100s.
1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Today through Sunday) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Beneath the ridge, a weak inverted 500mb trough is moving into South Texas and a pool of 1.
1039 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface map places weak low across northwest South Dakota with cold front extending back into northern Wyoming. Cold front slides through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure pushes into the Dakotas tonight. Broad upper trof settles in across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area.
From that front, a cold front stretches across central Nebraska. Significantly cooler conditions fill in behind the front. Highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, leaving them close to seasonal means.
A cold front is currently pushing across the Sandhills, stretching from near Imperial to North Platte to O'Neill as of 2pm. Behind the cold front, Sunday will be significantly cooler, and highs are only expected to reach the 80s. The pattern remains on the cooler side through the week as an upper low pushes southeastward out of Canada and into the upper midwest.
Another hot day tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s expected for all of the Tennessee Valley. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast regions. Tomorrow will be hot and mostly sunny with highs in the lower 90s for all of the Tennessee Valley. With dew points in the lower 70s, heat index will likely top out around 100 degrees at times.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Sunday/ Unsurprisingly, a hot and dry forecast is in the cards as the upper level subtropical ridge reestablishes itself along the 37th parallel of the Continental US.
Weak high pressure at the surface extending south from the Canadian Prairies will keep winds relatively light for most areas today with the cooler airmass in place resulting in temperatures close to seasonal averages for late July. Pool of cooler air aloft with the incoming low will lead to decreasing stability this afternoon with enough moisture in place across north-central MT to allow for some cumulus development and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms. A cooler airmass has moved into the region favoring more seasonal temperatures and an increase in Relative Humidity (RH) values. Tomorrow, an upper level trof enters The Treasure State from the west, favoring afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers across much of central Montana, and parts of the southwest.
Ample heating and stout upper ridge overhead indicate it'll be another very toasty day with highs reaching the 90s to around 100. Clarksville should have their 8th day in the 100s this summer today, and it's also possible Nashville could crack the century mark due to the warmer start today. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm elsewhere this afternoon as well, but stout upper ridge overhead will keep activity minimal at best. (Today through Sunday) High pressure is the dominant weather feature both at the surface and aloft.
335 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure over our south central SD counties, with a warm front extending eastward along the central and eastern Interstate 90 corridor. This low will slowly drop to the southeast through the afternoon, as a cold front slides southward across the area. After the storms exit, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
(Rest of Today) Analysis of early morning model data suggests that the TN Valley will remain under the dominating influence of a mid-level ridge extending eastward into the region from a 500-mb high centered across the southern Rockies. The overall synoptic pattern does not favor an abundance of diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but strong surface heating should yield 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE which will support the development of at least a few well-developed updrafts this afternoon, especially in the higher terrain to the north/east of Huntsville.
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A stout upper ridge continues to be centered over the Four Corners region, but it is beginning to build eastward and flatten out over the south-central plains. Meanwhile, an upper trough is entering the PNW, and will be the focus for potential rain chances later this weekend into the beginning of the work week. With the upper ridge strengthening and building across the central plains the period of hotter than normal temperatures looks to continue through the beginning of the week. The frontal zone will drift farther south on Sunday helping to keep much of northern Kansas in the low to mid 90s.
On Sunday and Sunday night our attention will turn to the next system that will be moving across the upper Great Lakes region, with a cold front trailing back across the upper midwest.
Ridging remains to our north and we will continue to see a south to southeast flow.
327 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A cold front currently over the Northern Plains will settle southward into central Illinois over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile further W/SW across the remainder of central Illinois, hot and humid weather will prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values well over 100 degrees. Further northwest, another cluster of severe convection has formed along a cold front across southwest Minnesota/northeast Iowa. Trailing cold front will sag southward overnight, potentially triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N/NW KILX CWA.
The axis of the subtropical ridge lies to our north and as such we have remained under an east to southeast wind regime through the day. The ridge axis will lift further north of the Florida Keys over the coming days. As this ridge axis lifts northward we will enter a period of unusually stronger winds for this time of year.
/Issued 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ /This afternoon through Sunday/ Unsurprisingly, a hot and dry forecast is in the cards as the upper level subtropical ridge reestablishes itself along the 37th parallel of the Continental US.
1147 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Rest of Today) Analysis of early morning model data suggests that the TN Valley will remain under the dominating influence of a mid-level ridge extending eastward into the region from a 500-mb high centered across the southern Rockies. The overall synoptic pattern does not favor an abundance of diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but strong surface heating should yield 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE which will support the development of at least a few well-developed updrafts this afternoon, especially in the higher terrain to the north/east of Huntsville.
Most of the activity is expected to stay along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Forecast models continue to agree on a strong ridge of high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest early this coming week. These patterns typically open the door for cold fronts dropping south out of Canada, bringing increased north and east winds to the region, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Along with the increased rainfall, expect an enhanced flash flood potential and progressively cooler temperatures.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Low temperatures will bottom into the lower to upper 70s across the area.
Freezing levels are. The highest potential for 105+ degree heat indices remains across far southern portions of the forecast area where the advisory remains in effect, but areas along I-70 could feel quite sticky with moisture pooling along the boundary, light winds, and periodic sunshine. Have maintained low chance PoPs through the day as the boundary hangs around, but chances really start to ramp up Sunday night as the low-level jet strengthens.
Weak upper trough to our north will keep temps near normal through Sunday. As it exits east Sunday night the hot upper ridge to our south will expand northward.
Some additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur as the forcing along the warm front and LLJ kick up this evening into tonight. Until the cold front passes through this evening into tonight from north to south chances will continue for showers and thunderstorms. As we have started to see clearing move into western Minnesota as the morning and afternoon storms come to an end recover of the atmosphere remains possible and a round two of storms could occur ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front tomorrow will be cooler and drier with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The low level jet persists past midnight while the instability remain sufficient for additional storms. The cold front stalls out over central parts of the CWA for Sunday morning but resumes its southeast push later in the morning into the early afternoon hours.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO An upper level ridge, currently located over the Four Corners region, will shift eastward over the next few days. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough currently just off the California coast will lift northward.
The upper ridge will continue to elongate to the east through tomorrow further increasing subsidence over the area. A surface pressure trough will exist well to the west of the area on Sunday leaving convection out of the area.
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and try conditions are expected again today as high pressure aloft remains steadfast over the area and holds back any real chances of precipitation or thunderstorm development.
Morning clouds should be less extensive on Sunday and a warming trend will begin as a ridge builds.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 93 74 92 74 / 10 20 10 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 93 74 92 73 / 10 20 10 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 92 70 89 70 / 10 20 10 60 50.
A cold front approaches the Quad State late afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day.
259 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A significant change in the weather pattern will occur this weekend with the passage of a cold front today. An upper level high positioned over the Four Corners and an upper level low over Hudson Bay creates zonal flow aloft. An disturbance will move east along this pattern, which along with the cold front will kick off thunderstorm development. High pressure remains over the Southwest U.
(This evening through Sunday) Quiet and warm conditions are expected to continue today into Sunday, as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern across the region. This cyclone development will tighten the pressure gradients and strengthen the southerly winds across Oklahoma and western north Texas. As the surface cyclone moves through southern Kansas on Sunday, the surface pressure gradient will reorient more towards the southwest, resulting in a slightly warmer conditions for the day.
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Quiet and warm conditions are expected to continue today into Sunday, as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern across the region. This cyclone development will tighten the pressure gradients and strengthen the southerly winds across Oklahoma and western north Texas. As the surface cyclone moves through southern Kansas on Sunday, the surface pressure gradient will reorient more towards the southwest, resulting in a slightly warmer conditions for the day.
The dry conditions will persist through the day tomorrow as high pressure remains in control across North and Central Texas.
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A cold front currently over the Northern Plains will settle southward into central Illinois over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile further W/SW across the remainder of central Illinois, hot and humid weather will prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values well over 100 degrees. Further northwest, another cluster of severe convection has formed along a cold front across southwest Minnesota/northeast Iowa. Trailing cold front will sag southward overnight, potentially triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N/NW KILX CWA.
624 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level high will continue to remain the dominant player in our weather over the short-term. The core of the high has begun to move east out of the Four Corners region and into the northern New Mexico/southern Colorado area. Conditions are expected to stay dry with the closer proximity of the upper high increasing subsidence across the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge doesn't look to strengthen tomorrow so temperatures will be comparable to today in the upper 90s to low 100s.
This will be the last of the extremely hot days for a bit as we see another surge of deep monsoonal moisture work north and northeast into the region as our upper level ridge shifts back east across New Mexico and into West Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the higher terrain, will continue through this evening with a few showers lingering overnight.
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A significant change in the weather pattern will occur this weekend with the passage of a cold front today. An upper level high positioned over the Four Corners and an upper level low over Hudson Bay creates zonal flow aloft. An disturbance will move east along this pattern, which along with the cold front will kick off thunderstorm development. High pressure remains over the Southwest U.
With upper ridging dominating the synoptic pattern, expect dry conditions to persist overnight. Bermuda ridge offshore with general south flow across the area with an modest increase in moisture. Upper ridge continues out west with weak trough across the southeast. Main westerlies remain to the north with trough across southeast Canada/Great Lakes region. Forcing for convection remains weak with primarily sea breeze front/weak surface convergence and convective outflow although there could be a weak short wave rotating around ridge to the west to provide some forcing. High temps in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
641 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure over our south central SD counties, with a warm front extending eastward along the central and eastern Interstate 90 corridor. This low will slowly drop to the southeast through the afternoon, as a cold front slides southward across the area. After the storms exit, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
940 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Atlantic ridge axis will remain across north FL into tonight, continuing a low level E/SE flow over the region. Ridge axis just north of the waters will lead to E/SE winds across the waters up to 10-15 knots tonight, with seas 2-3 feet.
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Low temperatures will bottom into the lower to upper 70s across the area.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 70s with partly cloudy skies. Looks like a warm front or old boundary will lead to storm development at most sites.
312 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Very pleasant day behind the cold frontal passage of last night, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and light winds. Some cumulus were forming over the higher terrain of the Beartooth/Absarokas late this afternoon, so will leave low PoPs in. Upper low over eastern Washington is progged to weaken and move toward the forecast area. Hi res CAM models initiate convection on the east side of the low (western zones) Sunday afternoon and then slide a complex of storms east to southeast through central and southeast zones late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
601 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A stout upper ridge continues to be centered over the Four Corners region, but it is beginning to build eastward and flatten out over the south-central plains. Meanwhile, an upper trough is entering the PNW, and will be the focus for potential rain chances later this weekend into the beginning of the work week. With the upper ridge strengthening and building across the central plains the period of hotter than normal temperatures looks to continue through the beginning of the week. The frontal zone will drift farther south on Sunday helping to keep much of northern Kansas in the low to mid 90s.
310 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Light north winds, some scattered mid-level clouds, under high pressure, and summer high temperatures below normal, all make for a gorgeous day outside today.
Winds have already begun to slack and will be light and variable overnight with high pressure in place.
The GFS pulls the heart of that dry air across the Upper Keys and the southern Everglades late tonight and early Sunday morning, with the southern extent of the dry air clipping the Lower Keys as well. The ridge axis will lift further north of the Florida Keys over the coming days. As this ridge axis lifts northward we will enter a period of unusually stronger winds for this time of year.
948 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Underneath a strong ridge aloft, the Piedmont trough will persist over the Carolinas through the weekend. Expect partly cloudy skies overnight with lows again in the lower to mid 70s. Persistence pattern for Sunday, which will feature weak features and weak flow aloft, the Piedmont trough over our region in conjunction with being on the western periphery of the Bermuda high, and a hot airmass. Otherwise, look for isold showers/tstms to develop either on the Piedmont trough, the sea breeze, or possibly even an old outflow boundary lingering across our northern zones leftover from tonight's dying MCS to our north.
1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Low temperatures will bottom into the lower to upper 70s across the area.
Overall, complex is moving east, but newest development is on the southern end, near the warm front/moisture/instability gradient. As convection tracks east and warm front edges northward expect thunderstorms to enter central WI (southwest part of the GRB forecast area) over the next hour, and then continue eastward along the southern tier or two of counties into the evening. There are a few features that will lead to continued larger scale forcing, including entrance region of upper jet, and a developing LL jet feeding additional moisture into WI ahead of the sfc cold front through the night. Highs will be closer to normal ranging from the low 70s in the north to around 80 degrees in the Fox Valley.
The much awaited cold front is finally nearing our doorstep at 3:00AM, draped across southern NE and IA. That being said, Linn Co KS, Bates, Henry, Pettis, Cooper, and Howard counties, MO are far enough south of the front to reach heat indices approaching the lower 100s, so these counties have remained under today's Heat Advisory. Rainfall and cloud cover on Monday will leave the region under cooler temperatures ranging from the lower 70s in northern MO and into the upper 80s in southern MO.
335 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 /Updated at 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ The upper level ridge remains anchored just west of the area through the period.
Over the next couple of days the broad ridge that has kept us unseasonably hot will begin to shift a bit farther east. As a result, expected slightly cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon hours. A weak cold front is expected to stall across south Missouri Monday.
An upper trough is nearing the Great Lakes but very little change in the pattern over Georgia and South Carolina. A weak upper low in the western Atlantic will near the coastline. High temps in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Upper pattern continues to show a weak upper low sandwiched between the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic and the southern Mississippi Valley Ridge.
In the wake of a decaying Mesoscale Convective Vortex near the lower Mississippi River valley, upper ridging attempts to build over the region tonight but is then hampered by two features. These two features will limit potential subsidence effects from the upper ridge which could limit convective development. Lows tonight and Sunday night range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday central and about the same west. This will help keep temperatures a bit cooler here as well.
At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature over the region today into this evening. The high will begin to get pushed east late tonight as a frontal boundary associated with low pressure over northern Colorado/southern Wyoming begins to nose up over western South Dakota.