Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler air will be in place keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 50s for the Valley and the 30s-low 50s for the mountains and foothills. Chilly conditions will continue into the overnight hours where temperatures will generally be spread across the 30s for the Valley and foothills, while the ridges drop below freezing.
327 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Tonight and Monday: The strong mid/upper level low pressure system will continue to swing east southeast through the region tonight, finally becoming positioned east of the region Monday.
209 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Upper ridge axis that brought warm temperatures over the weekend will move east tonight. On Monday, will see a prefrontal trough move across the area with winds shifting to the northwest.
442 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Upper ridge axis that brought warm temperatures over the weekend will move east tonight. On Monday, will see a prefrontal trough move across the area with winds shifting to the northwest.
1039 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Upper ridge axis that brought warm temperatures over the weekend will move east tonight. On Monday, will see a prefrontal trough move across the area with winds shifting to the northwest.
Most areas will see below freezing temperatures, and thus the threat of some very light glaze in freezing fog.
258 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 High pressure over the area will weaken enough today to allow a weak cold front to drop south into the area this evening.
159 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2019 Amplified upper trough off the west coast as strong jet continues to dig into the SW US. WV/IR show ample upper-level moisture and broad area of cloud cover ahead of the trough. A weak cold front is slowly moving southward across northwestern SD. The trough upstream will begin to impinge upon the central and northern plains late Christmas Eve through Christmas Day.
Upper level ridge will move into the southern plains today with will bring periods of mountain cirrus through western Kansas.
121 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 A cold front continues to move out of the area early this morning. On Monday, cooler temperatures are forecast, with highs from around 20 northeast to around 40 southwest. Cooler, but near normal temperatures are expected to last through Christmas week.
227 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 As the upper low responsible for yesterday and last night's rainfall pulls off to the east this morning, look for showers to diminish. With an upper ridge building in mid-week, and southerly flow, I don't see why many places in Middle TN won't be flirting with 70.
1255 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Low pressure will move slowly eastward along the Florida Panhandle tonight. The low will be near the Georgia coast Monday.
Look for lows tonight dipping into the low to mid 30s. Low-amplitude upper ridging over the SE CONUS will keep the Ohio Valley dry and unseasonably warm for most of the week. Plenty of support for temps climbing well into the 60s, but with the low sun angle, that will be modulated heavily by clouds.
1108 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
Another cold night with lows mainly in the lower 40s inland sections.
345 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
Most locations will dip below freezing. A weak cold front will move across the region towards the end of the current TAF period and result in winds switching to the W/NW. Forecast confidence is high: Quiet weather will continue tonight, with a cold front dropping south through southern Wisconsin on Monday. Above normal temperatures will continue Monday, though cooler overall and coolest in the north as the cold front moves through.
320 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 A cold frontal passage late tonight allows high pressure to build in through Christmas. Fair weather today with temperatures rising above freezing for all areas with southwesterly flow.
343 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Stretch of seasonably mild late December conditions will hold firm through the upcoming week, as the local area remains immersed within the elevated upper height emanating from predominant upper ridging draped across the gulf coast. Noted uptick in temperatures across the lowest 5000 ft occurs today within increasingly west-southwest low level flow. Shallow cold frontal boundary will make inroads across northern areas late in the day, responding to subtle height falls ongoing across Ontario.
902 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the southern and central Rockies tonight before gradually weakening ahead of the next Pacific trough set for later periods. Still no precipitation expected as all the abundant moisture is in the high levels of the atmosphere while the low levels are very dry.
These clouds will serve as a blanket overnight, keeping temperatures mild, only dropping into the 20s and 30s for the lows. Winds will be generally light, with no real pressure gradient driving the wind as the high pressure system that has kept the region mild these last few days passes to our east.
258 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 With high pressure to the north we are seeing weak cold advection, however the high clouds (and pockets of stratus) along with a little mixing has kept the temperatures stable for the most part.
In the mid-levels, broad, zonal ridging will persist today ahead of a deep upper trough off the CA coast. Some model guidance brings in stratus ahead of the warm front, especially over northern parts of the area, although soundings indicate this moist layer would be very shallow.
A weak cold front will drop through the area later today, however it has very little to no moisture associated with it. Some low clouds/fog may develop tonight behind the front, that could cause some slick spots with temps dropping below freezing. It would seem that with sunshine and warmer temps today, that warmer pavement temps should limit the black ice potential Tue morning.
Light shower activity will develop across portions of southeast Oregon and mountains of southwest Idaho early Monday as the upper trough along the coast begins to lift northeastward.
Low pressure off the West Coast will bring more high clouds to Arizona tonight.
Some patchy fog may begin to develop after midnight across our far western zones in NE Texas and SE Oklahoma, with the potential for some patchy freezing fog north of I-30 where temperatures are expected to drop near or just below freezing.
The 12z upper air analysis showed a fairly strong upper ridge extending from New Mexico northward through the central High Plains. This pattern is expected to continue through tomorrow with some strengthening in the lee side trough.
928 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Broad upper ridge remains over northern Plains with mid-high level moisture advecting from the southwest ahead of upper level trof along Pacific coast. Cold front is moving through northwestern SD with winds becoming northeast and temperatures falling rapidly as high pressure pushes southward. Monday Through Sunday Cooler but still dry through Christmas Eve as trof becomes established over the wrn U. Inversion remains in place over the hills/foothills, so higher elevations will again be warmer.
An upper level trough currently along the west coast will weaken as it shifts east the next couple of days. Impacts from this weakening trough could be felt across Utah Christmas Eve through Christmas day.
1021 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Evening Update: Temperatures have cooled quickly to below freezing this evening. Fog and freezing fog has formed over much of the CWA over the past couple hours, particularly in areas along and north of the Missouri River and Milk River Valleys, east of Fort Peck to along the state line into North Dakota, and southeast around the Yellowstone River Valley. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will drift to the east today and flow aloft turns to the SW. A weak and dry cold front will move south into NE Montana during the day today and temperatures will be not as warm as yesterday in some areas. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today and splits. A wave on the northern branch moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with a weak cold front.
1010 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Evening Update: Temperatures have cooled quickly to below freezing this evening. Fog and freezing fog has formed over much of the CWA over the past couple hours, particularly in areas along and north of the Missouri River and Milk River Valleys, east of Fort Peck to along the state line into North Dakota, and southeast around the Yellowstone River Valley. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will drift to the east today and flow aloft turns to the SW. A weak and dry cold front will move south into NE Montana during the day today and temperatures will be not as warm as yesterday in some areas. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today and splits. A wave on the northern branch moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with a weak cold front.
1001 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Evening Update: Temperatures have cooled quickly to below freezing this evening. Fog and freezing fog has formed over much of the CWA over the past couple hours, particularly in areas along and north of the Missouri River and Milk River Valleys, east of Fort Peck to along the state line into North Dakota, and southeast around the Yellowstone River Valley. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will drift to the east today and flow aloft turns to the SW. A weak and dry cold front will move south into NE Montana during the day today and temperatures will be not as warm as yesterday in some areas. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today and splits. A wave on the northern branch moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with a weak cold front.
302 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Upper low very apparent on current regional radar mosaic along the extreme southern Alabama and Mississippi border. For the remainder of today, upper low will finally begin to kick out and progress across the Florida panhandle. This will allow for a more NE trajectory to the surface flow and wrap around precip on the back side of the low. With influences from the upper low, this activity could be a little more showery in nature and will include in the latest grid set.
With high pressure to the north we are seeing weak cold advection, however the high clouds (and pockets of stratus) along with a little mixing has kept the temperatures stable for the most part.
535 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 High pressure will stay in control of our weather through Christmas Day.
313 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Dry conditions to start off the Holiday week with cooler air filtering in, but still above average for this time of year. Ridge aloft that brought mild temperatures through the weekend has shifted eastward, leaving the region under the influence of west to southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a weak cold front currently extending from south central South Dakota into central Minnesota will continue to move southward into the region today. This will result in cooler conditions, easterly winds and hence, mostly cloudy skies. The cold front nearly stalls out south of the region tonight. Light precipitation chances and cooler conditions are the main features this week.
514 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Under cloudy skies and periodic light to occasionally moderate rainfall, temperatures are averaging in the lower 70s along the Florida Keys. A large, strengthening and deepening low pressure system covering the Southeast United States southward down the entire Florida Peninsula and the north coast of the island of Cuba this morning, will move east southeastward and offshore of the entire Sunshine State by late Tuesday. With this, plenty of moisture, periodic low level troughs and lobes of mid and upper level vorticity will result in well above normal rain chances today and tonight, before diminishing into the isolated range on Tuesday.
In fact, it will even be more pleasant than yesterday as it will not be as breezy and temperatures will be about five degrees warmer as high pressure sits over southeast Texas. Tuesday will be a continuation of the mostly sunny skies and near 70 degree weather as high pressure remains overhead. High pressure should remain in control for the next several days.
Otherwise, weak ridging aloft will allow for dry conditions today with thin, high cirrus streaming through the region.
923 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Satellite imagery shows the upper level low associated with the unsettled weather pattern spinning off the coast of the Florida panhandle this morning. On the eastern side of the low, convection appears to be once again starting to fire as diurnal heating kicks in. Poor boating conditions continue as an upper level low pressure system brings high winds and seas to coastal waters. /issued 659 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019/ The upper level low pressure center situated over the central Gulf Coast continues to contribute to some isolated areas of MVFR/IFR conditions, but generally VFR through most of the morning. As the low continues to move toward the Florida Peninsula, gusty WNW winds and showers come back into play before conditions slowly improve later tonight.
In the mid-levels, broad, zonal ridging will persist today ahead of a deep upper trough off the CA coast. Some model guidance brings in stratus ahead of the warm front, especially over northern parts of the area, although soundings indicate this moist layer would be very shallow. The upper ridge will begin to break down through mid-week with a transition to southwest flow aloft.
A cold front continues to move out of the area early this morning. On Monday, cooler temperatures are forecast, with highs from around 20 northeast to around 40 southwest. Cooler, but near normal temperatures are expected to last through Christmas week.
643 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 High pressure will stay in control of our weather through Christmas Day.
416 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2019 Amplified upper trough off the west coast as strong jet continues to dig into the SW US. WV/IR show ample upper-level moisture and broad area of cloud cover ahead of the trough. A weak cold front is slowly moving southward across northwestern SD. The trough upstream will begin to impinge upon the central and northern plains late Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. Weak upslope flow along the periphery of high pressure dropping out of Canada and the developing low across the central plains may yield a period of fog/freezing fog/drizzle Tuesday night into Christmas Day.
Models have struggled to resolve our warmer highs the past few days under this ridge, partially under doing the H85 temps. Southwesterly flow aloft will be ushering in that dry and warmer air, with models showing H85 temps between 17-18C. This is due to an upper trough over California pushing Pacific moisture our way. This particular trough will start to weaken late on Tuesday, but help is on the way.
Dry conditions are expected for the next several days along with warmer temperatures.
considerable high cloudiness will spread across the area today and continue tonight under southwest flow aloft ahead of a large trough across the west coast.
Otherwise, ridging aloft and at the surface will build overhead today and Tuesday.
/Issued 443 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019/ For today, the peak of the recent warming trend is anticipated as above normal temperatures will continue across the area with max temps expected to climb well into the upper 60s to lower 70s as an upper level ridge of high pressure translates to a position east of the region by late this afternoon.
This could impact the high temperatures in our southern counties slightly, but the rest of the area should climb into the upper 50s and maybe even a few 60s today. Ridging and WAA will continue to build into the region Monday night into Tuesday with a nice thermal ridge in the low levels setting up over Missouri.
530 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 High pressure will stay in control of our weather through Christmas Day.
With regional temperatures below freezing, there will likely be isolated occurrences of freezing fog early this morning where visibility reduces to one-half mile or less. This is primarily due to drier low-level air advecting into the region with the upper-level ridge axis building directly overhead. As a result, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today. With 850-mb temps in the 12-15 Celsius range and adequate boundary layer mixing, afternoon surface temps will surge into the lower 60s across the Ozarks.
357 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Dense fog, with areas of freezing fog expected to erode generally from west to east through the morning, possibly lingering until around noon across central parts of Oklahoma. With the freezing fog, expect a fair amount of riming on elevated objects, with some slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses. With rising heights and eastward progression of lower level thermal ridge, respectable recovery in temperatures expected this afternoon (especially western Oklahoma and western north Texas) with most highs reaching the 60s. Temperatures well above average going into Christmas Day with gusty south winds and increasing moisture ahead of large upper low that will bring rain chances for late week into the weekend.
The upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Plains with a Pacific trough along the west coast. A weakening upper level trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft will track across the Desert Southwest Tuesday and the Central Rockies Tuesday night.
Mid level ridging will give way to southwesterly flow aloft as an intense storm system moves ashore along the CA coast today. A Pacific front will follow for Christmas Day with slightly cooler temperatures and gusty westerly winds.
Spotty light rain will decrease today as an upper trough moves inland.
/issued 332 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019/ (Today and Tonight) After a cool start in the 30s, it will be dry and warm today with upper ridging aloft. Southerly winds will continue overnight with a gradual increase in nighttime temperatures, with most areas at or above freezing. Models continue to struggle with the details of a deep upper trough development and its movement into the Southern Plains.
417 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2019 Area of low clouds and fog over the northeast corner of the state this morning, with high pressure dropping into the upper midwest, and a cold front over central Montana. Southwest flow aloft will help push the front back to the east later today, with the low clouds lifting back into Canada. Upper trof moving onshore, with an upper low spinning up over the northern Rockies tonight. This low is expected to slowly lift northeast into central Saskatchewan by Christmas Day.
535 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Dry conditions to start off the Holiday week with cooler air filtering in, but still above average for this time of year. Ridge aloft that brought mild temperatures through the weekend has shifted eastward, leaving the region under the influence of west to southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a weak cold front currently extending from south central South Dakota into central Minnesota will continue to move southward into the region today. This will result in cooler conditions, easterly winds and hence, mostly cloudy skies. The cold front nearly stalls out south of the region tonight. Light precipitation chances and cooler conditions are the main features this week.
617 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 A cold frontal passage late tonight allows high pressure to build in through Christmas. Fair weather today with temperatures rising above freezing for all areas with southwesterly flow. A cold front passes after midnight, with winds becoming northwesterly then veering to the northeast by Tuesday evening.
Objective analysis has a 12 millibar surface pressure gradient across Kansas east of a modest lee trough with very warm and dry air off the surface on local 0Z soundings.
Patchy dense fog continues in the Mid-Valley this morning due to high pressure and light winds over the region. /issued 449 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500mb high pressure continues to build over the Central U. At the surface, high pressure is also overhead, leading to areas of fog this morning.
Elongated upper trough lingers today as stronger energy digs to our south toward SoCal. The trough remaining over the area may allow for enough weak convection for lingering scattered showers over the northern Sierra Nevada and foothills. Less activity is expected Tuesday as the current system lifts out to the northeast ahead of more upstream energy moving into the region and reinforcing the large trough over the western US.
Heights aloft will be rising as the Plains upper ridge shifts into the area and this combined with weak low level WAA should allow for warmer temperatures than yesterday inspite of waves of thin high clouds. The upper ridge and weak low level ridge will move east resulting in southwest flow aloft and strengthening lower tropospheric flow and WAA. These factors should allow for high temperatures a bit warmer than today, ranging from 15 to 30 degrees above normal. Soundings show that mixing will be nearly twice as deep as today and Tuesday and this should translate to even warmer high temperatures and possibly encroaching on records.
332 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 (Today and Tonight) After a cool start in the 30s, it will be dry and warm today with upper ridging aloft. Southerly winds will continue overnight with a gradual increase in nighttime temperatures, with most areas at or above freezing. Models continue to struggle with the details of a deep upper trough development and its movement into the Southern Plains.
As the upper low responsible for yesterday and last night's rainfall pulls off to the east this morning, look for showers to diminish. With an upper ridge building in mid-week, and southerly flow, I don't see why many places in Middle TN won't be flirting with 70.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500mb high pressure continues to build over the Central U. At the surface, high pressure is also overhead, leading to areas of fog this morning.
/issued 302 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019/ Upper low very apparent on current regional radar mosaic along the extreme southern Alabama and Mississippi border. For the remainder of today, upper low will finally begin to kick out and progress across the Florida panhandle. This will allow for a more NE trajectory to the surface flow and wrap around precip on the back side of the low. With influences from the upper low, this activity could be a little more showery in nature and will include in the latest grid set. Ridging aloft finally takes over late Mon night into Tuesday allowing for drying conditions. Deese Quiet weather is expected Christmas eve and Christmas Day as high pressure moves to the area.
Today will be a transitory day for the Northern Rockies as a cold front passes through the region.
VFR conditions with winds generally less than 10 kts to prevail through the TAF period under building high pressure. Today Through Tuesday Night A strong and progressive ridge of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will cross the forecast area through the period bringing fair and dry conditions with much above normal temperatures and light winds. Lows Tuesday night will be warmer and range from near 40 north to the mid 40s south.
A weak cold front will drop through the area later today, however it has very little to no moisture associated with it. Some low clouds/fog may develop tonight behind the front, that could cause some slick spots with temps dropping below freezing. It would seem that with sunshine and warmer temps today, that warmer pavement temps should limit the black ice potential Tue morning. High pressure will build in briefly tonight, before another surge of warmer air returns on Tuesday as SW winds pick up.
High- and mid-level clouds will continue to stream across northern Arizona today in advance of a low pressure system centered off the California coast during the early morning. Tuesday will see a 10 to 15 degrees drop in daytime temperatures compared to Monday as a cold front sweeps across the area.