Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
N of a nearly stationary upper level low along the SE TX coast just S of BPT. The low is more or less now stacked and wrapping up in place seen equally well aloft on the water vapor. So as this system continues to remain uncertain as to exactly where, the NHC chance for cyclone development has gone back up from 40 to 60 percent over the next 5 days. The GFS and Euro take a similar look with the Westerlies taking all week long to push a broad trough now approaching the U. NW coast and slowly across the Rockies for no help to us on temps with any possible cold fronts.
As a weak upper low slides east to near the Four Corners today, an active weather day is in store for much of the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours as the upper low remains over northwest New Mexico. The upper low is forecast to weaken somewhat Monday but east and southwest winds are expected to continue the flow of moisture into the state.
656 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The vigorous upper level trof was moving through the Arrowhead at 07Z/2am. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure covered the forecast area with plenty of stratus and patchy fog. Elsewhere, with upper ridging building across the region, no rain is expected. This is in response to the low level jet/vorticity max moving eastward over the area, and an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will continue on Monday as the cold front moves into the region by Monday afternoon. Will have the highest pops along and on either side of the cold front.
(Issued 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016) The 08z surface analysis indicated that the upper level ridge axis was remaining across the southeast U. with generally clear skies and temps in the lower 70s. In the short term, the models are indicating that a weakness in the ridge axis will occur across Southern Middle Tennessee and into northeast Alabama today. Have compromised involving todays high temps between the cooler GFS and warmer NAM temps. The models are in similar agreement involving keeping the upper ridge axis across the region, limiting much of shra/tsra development.
1142 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight.
A large upper level trough continues over western Canada. This trough will begin to form a closed low along the west coast of Canada today and overnight. This in turn will shift the mean trough position to off the west coast and allow a ridge to begin building over the northern Rockies.
1028 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Fog and stratus deck between Mobridge and Aberdeen this morning lifting to the north and dissipating.
Deep easterly flow remains in place this morning with high pressure parked north of the forecast area.
726 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will move east of the area today. A cold front will approach Maine and New Hampshire tonight and move off the coast monday morning.
High pressure building in from the west in wake of this Low will allow for a drying and warming trend for the first part of the upcoming week.
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend.
1138 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning.
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016 The upper low was located near KGLS at 11Z. A weak upper level low is located over the western Gulf, just east of Galveston. Models continue to suggest high rain chances today as a weak upper low over the Gulf drifts slowly W-SW today.
731 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
1032 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 72 93 70 / 50 40 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 70 91 69 / 30 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 94 71 91 69 / 40 30 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 64 90 66 / 30 20 20 10.
709 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Low pressure will track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario today dragging a cold front across the region.
733 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low pressure will then persist through late week. A weak upper low will drift west toward the coast today. Temps warming into the low to mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s and upper height falls will support better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon.
1048 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today as a weak cold front moves through.
1036 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Low pressure will track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario today dragging a cold front across the region.
So will maintain the High Risk of rip currents at the beaches this afternoon.
A change to cooler temperatures still looks on track into the early part of the week, but the amount of precipitation with the systems moving through the middle of the week into the weekend continues to diminish as newer model runs come in. The upper level trough that, with the thermal trough shifted inland, brought us the above normal temperatures shifts east today. As the upper level trough continues to move towards the coast the 700 mb winds increase with the pressure gradient tightening again in the afternoon. Not confident the low clouds will clear out along the coast today, but CIGS could improve to MVFR at North Bend this afternoon and inserted it into the TAF.
Marine layer has lowered slightly from around 2800 ft to around 2400 ft and should continue to lower slightly the next couple of days due to large scale subsidence until the trof moves inland on Tue. With onshore gradients weakening and the lowering marine layer. 24hr temp change indicates persistence to slightly cooler readings than yesterday in the Srn Sac Vly. Not a whole lot of change expected the next several days, though an approaching trough will bring some cooling by mid-week.
925 AM MST SUN AUG 28 2016 A drier and cooler airmass will spread across the region into Monday with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Along with warmer temperatures, afternoon thunderstorm activity initially confined to the eastern Arizona mountains may begin to descend towards lower elevation communities. This pattern will continue to hold through Monday, albeit with slightly higher heights aloft resulting in warmer temperatures.
803 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight.
1051 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016 Localized heavy rain is continuing to fall along the coast in Brazoria County this morning, as the upper level low that was sitting just east of Galveston continues to slide slowly west along the coast. The rotation about the low should drag in some isolated cells into Liberty County within the next hour.
720 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper ridge continues to weaken somewhat over the next couple of days but remains the dominant feature over the region. Should see some increase in convective coverage each day as moisture slowly increases and deepens and the weak wave traversing the western Atlantic on the underside of the upper ridge edges toward the Carolina/Georgia coastal area.
Still plenty of insolation to push max temps into the lower to middle 90s inland with heat indices into the 100-105 range, while the breezy coast will top out in the upper 80s/near 90.
This is likely in response to this increased moisture and weak ascent associated with the upper low over the Texas coast. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ The upper level pattern consists of a stationary trough over the Four-Corners region and a high pressure ridge extending from the Missouri Valley to the Mid Atlantic states. Water vapor imagery indicates that a couple of upper level disturbances are currently working their way slowly west along the southern flank of the East Coast ridge.
1136 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
338 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will build across the area through tonight.
Pleasant day expected as a broad area of high pressure at the sfc dominates sensible weather pattern. High pressure over the area today will keep clear skies and and light winds across the cwa today. This ridge will slide eastward through today and push off the GA/FL coast by 00z Sat.
Some areas, mainly in the southwest half of the forecast area will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today.
240 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure building eastward across the North Country will bring cold temperatures and dry weather overnight, with just passing mid to upper level cloudiness. As the high pressure system shifts to our east, a warm front will approach with winds shifting into the south and southwest on Saturday.
Southerly winds and upper level ridging will push temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
212 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will bring clearing skies today along with seasonal temperatures. As a low-level ridge continues to build eastward into the region this afternoon and early evening, the clearing trend will also persist, with much of the forecast area seeing increased sunshine by early afternoon. Warming 850mb temperatures along with surface ridging will erode this cloud deck from southwest to northeast this morning. Tonight, a flat upper level ridge builds over the region as high pressure moves to the east coast.
Upper level ridging extends from southern Florida northwest over the southeast states, through the Mississippi River Valley. This ridge slides east through the night as an upper low and troughing located over Texas moves toward the region. The highest POP's will take place north of the I-4 corridor and over the northern coastal waters. Overnight temps tonight are expected to be 8-10 degrees warmer than what we saw last night. The associated upper level energy pivoting around this low will be the driver for showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night with the best chance for rain north of the I-4 corridor.
/issued 252 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017/ Drier and cooler air has pushed across South Florida this morning with temperatures beginning to fall with 40s sneaking into southern central Florida and solid 50s across much of southern Florida save for some east coast sites. Some portions of the interior could see temperatures reach into the lower 80s today. Preferred a slightly warmer blend of models for today, especially over the interior, which was about a degree warmer than the blend.
304 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will build across the region this afternoon and tonight. A weak low pressure system will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross northern Maine Saturday night. Winds will gradually die off this evening as the high pressure builds. This presents a challenge in terms of tonight's lows as a narrow window of radiational cooling develops between the time winds decrease and upper level clouds increase ahead of an approaching warm front late tonight. A band of thicker upper level clouds well ahead of the surface warm front will cross the forecast area Saturday morning and may even include a brief burst of snow showers for northern zones by late morning. Low pressure is expected to approach the region from the northwest Saturday Evening then move across the area late at night.
/Today/ High clouds will continue to flow across the area into mid-morning, but they will then diminish as upper ridging builds into the area. Warmer air will continue to flow into the area from the southwest.
A trough of low pressure moves east from the West Coast overnight, and moisture will move in from the southwest in this flow pattern.
443 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front lifts into the northeast tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday afternoon.
Snow- covered areas of NE IA/SE MN and north central WI have remained a bit cooler. This wave will drag a weak cold front through tonight, but the impacts to our weather will be minimal. Temps will trend slightly cooler tomorrow, but will remain well above average in the low to mid 50s in most areas, although snow- covered areas may remain a little cooler.
210 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A weak warm front lifts north today. A ridge of high pressure extends from the sfc up to H500, will maintain dry weather conditions through the period.
For today and tonight, a cutoff upper low will lift northeast through the southern plains into AR this evening. The upper low will not be particularly deep, but will be slow-moving under upper level ridging.
256 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Thermal ridge axis will shift east ahead of weak frontal passage this evening associated with short wave. A bit cooler column tomorrow however with shrinking snow pack, surface westerly flow and expected solar temperatures will still range well above normal although record highs may not be in the works.
Temps today may overachieve a bit per the warm morning and increased post- frontal mixing, so have raised expected highs a bit, looking for highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Moistening SW flow aloft associated with next Pacific trof moving into CA will spread some light precipitation to our SW mountains beginning late this evening. Chance of lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow will be confined to our far west Saturday and Saturday night as the CA trof splits and digs toward Mexico, resulting in weak forcing for our region, with a moisture plume extending from the Great Basin to western/central MT.
140 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will drift off the Southeast U. coast and allow a warm front to lift north across the southern Mid Atlantic states today and tonight. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. Expect generally clear skies through much of the night, although high clouds will be on the increase over our SW sections as an upper low now over OK/TX shifts into the middle and lower Miss Valley, spreading warm- advection high clouds into the forecast area from the SW. Expect lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with the cooler readings in the outlying areas.
Upper ridge will rebuild for Saturday with continued dry and mild conditions for mid February.
333 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will lift NE across the area tonight ushering in spring like conditions. Warm front just into just SW of the forecast area will move NE across the area overnight. A weak but dry cold front will push south across the forecast area Saturday. as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over west Texas and a mid level ridge over our CWA. The closed low will continue northeast tonight becoming centered over western Arkansas by sunrise Saturday. The cloud cover and moisture increase will hold temperatures above normal in the lower 50s at most sites. /22/ The upper low will shift across the Mid South on Saturday, with showers subsiding from west to east through the day and dry conditions by the evening hours.
Tonight, with a ridge passing through, clear skies will remain for much of the night before some cloud cover ahead of a disturbance shifting northeast out of the lower MS valley area.
1119 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 Warm front lifting north early today. Warm front lifting through this morning. Generally looking at 50s to low 60s across the lowlands today with S to SW flow.
Morning satellite imagery showing a deepening trough approaching the CA coast. Weak ridging ahead of the trough will keep southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho mild and dry today. Still looking at light precip developing overnight as the trough works inland with the focus of heavier amounts over southeast Oregon and the eastern Boise mountains and Camas Prairie. An associated warm front will lift northward across the forecast area later today bringing another round of precipitation through Saturday morning. Mild temperatures expected through Saturday should continue snowmelt for the lower valleys.
257 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front lifts into the northeast tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday afternoon.
In the low levels a surface front will cross the area with a shift in winds to the northwest. The 100/500 millibar thicknesses collapse the pronounced thermal ridge in place.
208 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A benign start the period, with an upper ridge crossing the Ohio Valley, will transition to some rain chances tomorrow. This transition comes as an upper low, currently centered along the TX/OK Red River border, moves into the Commonwealth State Saturday afternoon. Continued southerly winds ahead of this feature, along with increasing cloud cover, will mean a warmer night tonight. Rain chances will linger into the evening hours before that upper low shifts eastward into the Appalachians.
Upper level ridge over the area and do expect a good deal of sunshine and winds will turn west-southwest this afternoon, esp in the RRV and eastern ND. A weak trough will extend south of the low and move into the RRV this aftn and along and west of this winds to turn the west or southwest. This will aid in warming so did go on the high end of guidance. 850-925 mb temps a tad cooler in NE ND but winds remain favorable westerly so this likely offsets any cooling aloft in terms of sfc temps as lowest levels better mixed.
221 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 At H5 large ridge over the central CONUS. Trough moving into west Texas underneath the ridge. Several weaker waves moving through the Pacific Northwest and very large mature closed low over the Canadian Maritimes with resultant trough off the Atlantic Coast. High pressure remains over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather and warm temperatures across north central Nebraska.
1259 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will build across the area through tonight.
219 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 Current surface map places trof across the eastern Dakotas.
1237 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will move northeast into the Great Lakes today bringing an unseasonably warm airmass into our area. A weak cold front will move into the area Saturday, but any cooling associated with this feature should be limited to areas near Lake Michigan.
Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s except the lower to mid 50s along the coastal areas of the panhandle.
222 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 During the next 24-36 hrs, we see Low pressure lift across the Red River valley, with associated moisture advecting northward/up the Mississippi valley, and chance cat pops spread across the Quad State tmrw. Altogether, the pcpn is light qpf, as the Low tracks across our southern border. Afterwards, high pressure ridging moves in.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Subsidence prevails across Deep South Texas this afternoon in the wake of the upper level trough axis. Low temperatures Saturday night will range from the upper 60s across the west to the lower 70s near the coat under mostly cloudy skies.
216 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 The afternoon water vapor loop showed upper lows over the southern Great Plains and off the CA coast. The eastern Pacific trough will amplify further as it slowly moves inland through Saturday. The higher mountains may receive a couple inches of snow.
302 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Warm and dry day across the mid state as abundant sunshine, the upper level ridge, and some low level mixing helped the temps rise and dewpoints fall.
312 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 18Z surface data has a warm front from central Minnesota into southwest lower Michigan. A cold front ran from the eastern Dakotas into northwest Kansas. A dry frontal passage tonight will result in slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday.
1102 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will move northeast into the Great Lakes today bringing an unseasonably warm airmass into our area. A weak cold front will move into the area Saturday, but any cooling associated with this feature should be limited to areas near Lake Michigan.
A warm and sunny Friday is in store for the region with upper level ridging in place and a strong southerly flow. Temps should easily warm into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Lows will range through the low to mid 40s with the coolest locations over southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass. For Saturday, a quick moving upper low will bringing scattered, light rain showers to the area.
Deep layer ridging over the northeastern Gulf this morning will push eastward through the day as an upper level cut off low moves through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi valley. As the upper level low moves closer, we'll also see an increase in upper level cloudiness in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 70s.
/Issued 653 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ Fairly quiet and mild weather expected today and Saturday as closed mid-level low over Permian Basin lifts northeast, allowing light winds and a mostly clear sky to prevail while brief ridging sets up tonight and Saturday.
305 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A weak warm front lifts north today. A ridge of high pressure extends from the sfc up to H500, will maintain dry weather conditions through the period.
1243 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will move north through the area today bringing well above normal temperatures to the region with record high temperatures possible heading into the weekend. Warm front just into SW OH. Tweaked temps down a couple of degrees in the east as temps currently in the lower to mid 20s and will take time for warm front to lift NE of area. Temperatures today will be on average 20 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Considering the low dewpoints and lack of wind, I lowered the mins from the previous forecast. Consmos has been doing well with the temperatures recently and has them warmer than previous forecast.
1139 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Continued VFR with SW winds turning northerly this evening behind a southward moving trough. /issued 411 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ A mostly dry closed low was currently spinning over the area and will continue to move to the northeast today. The only effect from this low will be continued mid level cloudiness over the Rolling Plains this morning. Despite the lower heights from this low, thickness values will be on the increase today leading to warmer temperatures. Warming will be boosted by westerly downsloping winds as surface lee troughing continues for this afternoon.
251 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Increase in mid/high clouds ahead of approaching upper low has held temps down just a bit. The upper low will move through southeast OK/western AR later tonight.
Some rain is on tap for Saturday, but it shouldn't be a washout for anyone, though it will be cooler than today.
1241 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will lift north across the region today.
Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather to the area today.
300 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 General surface ridging over the southeastern portion of the country.
1250 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will drift off the Southeast U. coast and allow a warm front to lift north across the southern Mid Atlantic states today and tonight. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. Mid and high cloudiness over the region this morning is a result of a potent vorticity maximum diving SE into the base of the offshore- moving deep mid level longwave trough.
Thereafter, flow aloft is expected to back to southwesterly as a mid-to upper-level trough approaches from the Pacific.
That may lead to a significant cyclone over the middle section of the country late in the week, with the system not reaching the forecast area until after the end of the period. Continue to favor the warmer guidance products.