Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Resident high pressure will ensure the column remains dry in advance of this feature, and forecast soundings Tuesday suggest nothing more than virga or maybe a high-based sprinkle.
An upper level ridge will extend west to east from northern Mexico across southern Texas and over the gulf coastal states.
200 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Aloft - A ridge centered near the central Gulf coast reached to the Great Lakes. Surface - High pressure across the lower Great Lakes sprawled south and covered most of the Gulf of mexico region. The upper ridge shifts eastward. This will push a weak cold front into the southeast U. A re-enforcing area of dry high pressure is expected to build into the region keeping NE low level flow in place through the weekend but mainly dry conditions will persist as temps remain slightly above climate normals. High pressure moves to the eastern seaboard TUE and resides there through the week. There will be slightly drier air for the next day or two but cooler temperatures will keep the RH from dropping to critical levels.
Precipitation should be light and from mid level clouds as the low level/boundary layer moisture will be limited. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous night due to the mid-high level cloudiness over our area along with southeasterly/southwesterly surface/low level winds.
123 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2016 As high pressure recedes to Mexico and a strong trough drops into the northern Rockies from Canada, the the southern stream waves north bringing the left exit region of an 80 kt speed maxima over the area. Showers remain a threat going into Tuesday as a large scale trough digs into the northern Rockies and drives the polar jet and associated lift into eastern Utah and western Colorado.
A weak troughing pattern has developed over Northern California, as a storm system passes through the Pacific Northwest and a closed upper low approaching off the coast. Mostly sunny skies prevail across the region, and temperatures are generally running a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Quiet weather continues across the mid state with the upper ridge axis sliding across the eastern CONUS.
328 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Tight pressure gradient ahead of troughing over the Plains resulted in pretty gusty south/southwest winds across the area today.
321 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure will move east into New England Tuesday.
651 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will crest over the region on Tuesday.
616 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Low pressure east of Nova Scotia will pull away from the region tonight. High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will build to the New England coast Tuesday.
Less oppressive conditions were also noted today, due to the lower than average maximum temperatures and dewpoints down to the mid 60s. High pressure over the northeast Gulf will maintain similar conditions for tomorrow with a very slight increase in maximum temperatures and dewpoints.
642 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move to New England by Tuesday.
Even with these warmer southerly winds, persistent cloud cover and the precipitation have limited highs to the lower 70s. Later this evening, the low level jet located over eastern Kansas in association with some isentropic lift may allow for some scattered showers to form into the evening.
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Current surface analysis shows cold front sinking slowly south across northeast WY and SD. Strong jet ahead of the trough will help to push the front south and east of the area tonight. Temps range from around 60 over portions of far northwest SD to the lower 80s across far southern SD.
A cold front will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night.
333 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build over the region this week, bringing the coolest air of this early Fall season.
Tight pressure gradient ahead of troughing over the Plains resulted in pretty gusty south/southwest winds across the area today.
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Low pressure east of Nova Scotia will pull away from the region tonight. High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will build to the New England coast Tuesday.
A cold front will swing southeast through the day on Tuesday brining colder conditions into our northwestern forecast area where highs will be in the upper 60s to around 70, while Kansas zones out ahead of the cold front may reach to near 80 Tuesday afternoon. This should be one of the more interesting periods with an upper trough sliding east across the northern plains.
357 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 A large high pressure system overhead will keep our skies clear tonight and allow temperatures to tumble. Widespread frost and freezing conditions are likely. Warmer air will return for Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. but will dry out quickly aft dark with subsidence under the high. For Tuesday night, high slides off to the N/E with light southerly flow beginning to develop as low pressure moves north into Great Lakes.
The northern stream trough that will influence our weather early to mid week is entering the Pacific Northwest. Main forecast concerns today will be warm temperatures and fire danger, transitioning to much cooler and wetter weather Tuesday. This trough will steepen the surface pressure gradient across southeast WY and western NE today, resulting strong and gusty westerly winds. The stronger surge of cooler air arrives Tuesday evening with scattered to numerous showers and gusty north-northeast winds.
559 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Canadian high pressure will build across the northern Mid- Atlantic through tonight before shifting offshore during the middle of the week.
655 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Dry low level south to southeast flow around high pressure centered to the east will maintain VFR conditions this forecast period. Resident high pressure will ensure the column remains dry in advance of this feature, and forecast soundings Tuesday suggest nothing more than virga or maybe a high-based sprinkle.
An upper level low located over Northern Mexico is expected to move into the Central Plains during the afternoon hours and into Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley by night.
A weak cold front will approach the area for mid week before stalling out nearby through the weekend. Soundings indicate that the low level inversion will take much of the morning to weaken as low clouds and fog gradually disperse/mix out below a band of thin cirrostratus moving across the region. In general, high temps will range in the low/mid 70s. High pressure will re-build into the middle Atlc region overnight and this will turn light flow in our lowest levels to the east to southeast. Models suggest the higher chances of fog will encompass many areas, especially along and east of I-95. High pressure to the north will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday helping push a stalled front over or near the area northward ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
The overall lack of much mixing and the deep snowpack for most areas will continue to keep high temps on the lower side of guidance. Under similar conditions yesterday, temps ended up being a little cooler than expected.
High temperatures well above normal will persist through the short term period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 60s for most of the area.
913 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Fog will be slow to lift/dissipate across inld SE GA otherwise expect High Pressure ridge in place to provide partly sunny skies and above normal temps once again with mid/upper 70s inland and near 70 along the beaches as weak sea breeze develops again.
Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin. First I'll take on the freezing rain. The saving grace this morning is that dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
659 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Other than some flurries this morning over parts of central New York, it will be dry and seasonably cold through Monday, with high pressure building across the region.
A cold front extends along a Dryden to Rocksprings to San Antonio to Gonzales to Brenham line while an upper level trough is over Sonora state of Mexico. The upper level trough moves northeast into Western Texas by this evening to the Central Plains by Monday. A lead impulse ahead of the trough is generating a band of showers and thunderstorms over the Pecos Valley. Moderate instability develops this afternoon along with strengthening upward forcing and diffluence aloft ahead of the upper level trough. However, should the front be slower to lift north it would likely remove this lower level shear keeping thunderstorms weaker.
525 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Water vapor satellite shows the low beginning to lift into southern New Mexico at this hour. The models are in excellent agreement with the track of the low, located southwest of Oklahoma City at 06z Mon at south east of Topeka, Kansas at 00z Tue. 25+ inch QPF roughly along and southeast of a line from Laramie to Bridgeport which would definitely be Advisory snow amounts if it comes to fruition. Since precipitation is unlikely to extend far west of the I25 corridor, we can expect the potential for fog yet again for areas west of the Laramie Range as we head into tonight as light winds will likely be unable to scour out the low-level moisture.
Thicker fog may return again tonight ahead of the lifting warm front. An upper level low located over Northern Mexico is expected to move into the Central Plains during the afternoon hours and into Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley by night.
1004 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stalled boundary in the southern portion of the area will become diffuse and move back north today, bringing a return to warmer temperatures. An upper ridge over the southeastern part of the country will favor above normal temperatures through midweek.
627 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front today.
934 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 AT long last, just about all locations have warmed above freezing and temperatures will continue a slow climb through the evening.
644 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Aviation High pressure centered over the region will continue to control the weather through tonight.
Still expect temperatures to rise above zero, and likely reach above freezing by the end of the period. An upper disturbance will move across the northern Rockies today and push a weak cold front through Montana tonight. High pressure slides across eastern Montana on Monday for little additional mixing.
1006 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front today.
Forecast reasoning has not changed much the past few days, as a large area of high pressure will continue to anchor itself over the southeastern U.
624 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build back in across the region through tonight.
1033 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
High pressure builds into the region from Canada this afternoon and remains over the area through Monday. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. high temperatures should be several degrees warmer than Sunday with readings getting into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
638 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build east across the region today as a frontal boundary remains stalled to our south. The front will push north as a warm front tonight and Monday allowing for milder temperatures and an increasing chance for showers.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 50 66 54 / 20 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 49 64 53 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 50 64 53 / 20 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 48 62 49 / 20 30 20 20.
Visibilities are mostly better than last night, but a few pockets of thicker fog persist mainly on ridgetops. Will see rain chances return from the west Monday afternoon as the low closes off and lifts into eastern Kansas, and SW flow deepens ahead of it. After 24 hrs of little or no diurnal temp change, unseasonably warm air will come in Monday with the warm front.
923 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure builds into the region today and tonight. The high will drift offshore Monday afternoon and Monday night.
0 inch is noted on the sounding but mainly below 950MB with a moderate east flow in the lower levels.
Moisture will gradually clear today across southern Nevada and surrounding areas behind a low pressure system pulling away to the east.
Expect some freezing fog to develop today and Monday with some overnight low temperatures in the single digits and daytime highs remaining below freezing.
A weak cold front will approach the area for mid week before stalling out nearby through the weekend. Model soundings indicate that the low level inversion will take much of the morning to weaken as low clouds and fog gradually disperse while a band of thin cirrostratus moves across the region. Temps will warm to the lower to mid 70s with light winds. High pressure will re-build into the middle Atlc region overnight and this will turn light flow in our lowest levels to the east to southeast. Models suggest the higher chances of fog will encompass many areas, especially along and east of I-95. High pressure to the north will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday helping push a stalled front over or near the area northward ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
As of 2 AM, the surface freezing line stretched from roughly Columbus Kansas to Lamar, then to Bolivar, Fort Leonard Wood, and on to Rolla. Along and north of this line, widespread freezing rain can be expected through morning, with a quarter to half inch of ice accretion expected. The highest ice amounts are still expected across the northwestern CWA (Lamar to Nevada/Ft Scott, east to Lake of the Ozarks), where temperatures are coldest and ice accretion will be most efficient. Low level WAA is expected to increase later this morning, and that will help the freezing line finally push north toward I-70 by mid day. Rain and thunderstorms will continue Monday, as a closed upper level low lifts north toward the region.
The center of a large sprawling anticyclone will begin to shift off to the east today, though it will ridge back into the area tonight into Monday. The delay in the onset is allowing the core of the cold air to release off to the east before precipitation arrives, but a corresponding south/east shift in the track of the system allows the low-level flow to maintain a more northerly component. Best guess now is that precipitation breaks out as a mix of RA/FZRA/IP and then quickly changes to snow for a time as evaporative cooling temporarily drops temperatures prior to the arrival of warmer air aloft.
High pressure will maintain dry weather through Monday.
Looks like mainly VFR conditions at the KJCT/KSOA terminals, mainly south of the warm front. Followed the high res HRRR model for timing at the terminals, around 01Z at the western terminals and 03Z at the eastern terminals. Upper level low currently over extreme northwest Mexico will swing northeast into the Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight. The combination of strong mid to upper ascent(negative tilt 500 MB trough) and strong low level south to southeast flow(warm front lifting north across area) will ramp up the potential for severe weather. However, the warm front may not make it north of I-20 by this evening, due to shallow arctic air mass wedged across the area. The best potential for a few tornadoes will be south of I-20(the warm front) this afternoon and evening due to strong low level shear and better surface instability.
A dense freezing fog advisory has been issued at NPWMFR through this morning for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois Valleys. More pronounced upper ridging builds over the area Monday, and we expect another round of overnight and morning freezing fog in West Side Valleys.
925 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build back in across the region through tonight.
The lower ceilings, and visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions. Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin. First I'll take on the freezing rain. The saving grace this morning is that dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
302 AM PST Sun Jan 15 2017 A weak low pressure system will bring cooling and partly cloudy skies through tonight and areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog.
Looks like the 500mb ridge and the slower northern trough win out over our area Monday, allowing the cut of low to the south to stay a bit farther to the southeast.
409 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper low just south of AZ with abundant lightning occurring in west TX in the subfreezing airmass. Surface freezing line extended from south of Lubbock to Norman to Bartlesville. Will extend ice storm warning until 9am for Pawnee, Osage and Washington counties in NE Oklahoma as light freezing rain continues. Will cancel freezing rain advisory for the other NE OK counties as temperatures have risen above freezing and the freezing line will continue its push to the northwest. Surface front located across south central TX will lift north as a warm front and be located along the Red River by tonight.
604 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build across the area today.
638 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build across the area today.
which may allow for warmer temps to occur than currently forecast.
512 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Latest UA analysis and recent WV images show a deep upper low crossing northwestern Mexico, with strong diffluent flow on its leading edge tapping a plume of subtropical moisture and spreading showers and tstms into western TX. Fog again appears to be rather patchy in nature so far this morning, with low vsbys (less than one mile) confined to the coast and nearshore coastal waters as well as further east acrs Acadiana and the lower Atchafalaya Basin. This will bring an increasing chc for showers and tstms to the area, with the highest POPs acrs interior southeast TX.
956 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Other than some flurries this morning over parts of central New York, it will be dry and seasonably cold through Monday, with high pressure building across the region.
630 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure builds into the region today and tonight. The high will drift offshore Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Southeast winds tonight may begin to gust over 15 kts as a low pressure system approaches. /Issued 409 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Early morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper low just south of AZ with abundant lightning occurring in west TX in the subfreezing airmass. Surface freezing line extended from south of Lubbock to Norman to Bartlesville. Will extend ice storm warning until 9am for Pawnee, Osage and Washington counties in NE Oklahoma as light freezing rain continues. Will cancel freezing rain advisory for the other NE OK counties as temperatures have risen above freezing and the freezing line will continue its push to the northwest. Surface front located across south central TX will lift north as a warm front and be located along the Red River by tonight.
937 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather and seasonal temperatures today before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front.
Upper level low currently over extreme northwest Mexico will swing northeast into the Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight. The combination of strong mid to upper ascent(negative tilt 500 MB trough) and strong low level south to southeast flow(warm front lifting north across area) will ramp up the potential for severe weather. However, the warm front may not make it north of I-20 by this evening, due to shallow arctic air mass wedged across the area. The best potential for a few tornadoes will be south of I-20(the warm front) this afternoon and evening due to strong low level shear and better surface instability.
338 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Warmer weather moving in with a strong cold front expected midweek. This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today. Despite the clouds today, southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures. Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far south. For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late tonight from the southwest.
1042 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017 The upper level flow in the atmosphere shifts to southwesterly tonight ahead of a developing trough of low pressure near the west coast of the country. On Monday the trough slowly moves east but remains well west of the rockies. Looking at readings in the low teens west to low 20s east.
355 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Sfc warm front remains well south of the Red River this morning with isolated storms ongoing across SE OK along the elevated frontal zone. Storms originating near this zone will also quickly become severe while the trailing cold front surging southeastward Tues evening will provide an additional focus.
440 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure off the coast will bring milder air up from the south through the middle of the week.
303 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Coastal high pressure will keep temperatures warm to start the new work week.
Cold core of the 5H trof rotating SE over Norcal tonite with most of the showers over the W Slopes Sierra where we will continue the advisory. JHM A weak but cold low pressure system is moving into the region this afternoon and evening.
As for temperatures, warmer air will begin to push into the far southern counties today, which will help temps rise into the upper 30s to near 40, while the northwest will remain firmly entrenched in the cold and stay in the teens.
A low pressure system over the upper midwest on Tuesday will lift a warm front through the Ohio Valley.
Southerly low-level flow will continue to push warmer air into the area, with most locations expected to top out in the 50s. A vigorous upper-level trof is currently digging down the west coast of the lower 48, and a lead piece of energy will eject toward the Midwest from this trof by tonight.
Highs will reach near 80 to the lower 80s near the east coast and 83-84 degrees across the interior.
1148 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 Southerly flow on the west side of a large high pressure system over the southeast CONUS is forcing low level warm advection over the area this afternoon. but very dry air left in the wake of the high pressure system is eating into the precip over our area. Lows tonight should be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night due to cloud cover and continuing southerly flow. slightly cooler in the mid to upper 50s further east. The warm front will likely be just along or north of the MO/IA line on monday night. The front and attendant cold front will likely enter the area just at or after 12z Tuesday morning.
355 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure offshore will result in onshore flow today.
239 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a long wave trough over the West Coast with an embedded upper level low over Oregon. This trough will advance east through the first half of the week with several short wave troughs expected to get ejected out from it. One of these short wave troughs will move across the region from late tonight through Tuesday morning.
aiding in the warmer temps. with some locales even getting into the lower 60s.