Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
All near term high resolution models indicate precipitation winding down after 9 am with a few lingering light snow showers over the higher peaks of the Park Range through the late morning hours. Temperatures will be cooler with highs a few degrees below normal. A ridge of high pressure then slides over the region on Tuesday with dry conditions and temperatures rebounding back to above normal levels. A Spring teaser will bring temperatures well above normal midweek as a ridge axis plants itself over the Desert Southwest.
Here temps in the low to mid 60s may tack on another degree or two late today and reach for expected highs. The surface winds remain Northeasterly with occasional gusts in the low to mid teens as high pressure continues to nose down the MS river valley and mid South.
Currently, high pressure currently settling in over the area. Allowing us mostly clear skies tonight giving way to lows in the lower 30s. Tuesday, we will continue to warm up with highs in the lower 70s across the Tri-State area, and lows over night will be in the lower 40s. A potent upper level trough is progged to move ashore the Pacific coast late Wed/Wed night.
302 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure remains in place at the surface, promoting a dry and beautiful day across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. As of 20z, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s across the region and may make it degree or two higher before we start to lose the sun angle. These clouds will have an impact on low temperatures as they may actually help keep them at least a few degrees warmer than they might have been. Locations south of the Tennessee River are most likely to experience this and have trended lows in the lower 40s there. Further north, readings in the upper 30s are generally expected, with a few locally cooler spots over Southern Middle Tennessee.
With the high directly overhead tonight, cloud deck is likely to clear out and allow for winds to become light and variable leading to the potential for fog. With the ridge shifting east prior to 12z Tuesday, weak WAA may develop over the west and help dissipate or at least inhibit the dense fog from developing.
This disturbance is moving out of the area and an upper level ridge will begin building into the area from the west tonight and through Tue. This will bring dry weather to the area, and warmer temps. Highs on Tue are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s acrs the southeast plains, and just a little cooler than that over portions of El Paso county.
The temperatures should bring above normal temperatures on Tuesday, and over this weekend under high pressure and offshore flow.
334 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Low pressure along the North Carolina coast tonight, moves northeast and away from the area Tuesday. High pressure builds over the area for the midweek period. Latest MSAS has a sfc trof across the mts along with a low pressure trof along the Carolina coast. Models track the nrn trof north of the local area late this evening and overnight while moisture from the coastal trof creeps north along the coast. High pressure to the nw pushes the moisture out to sea allowing for dry conditions to overspread the area during the aftrn. Still cold Tues night as the ridge axis remains west of the fa.
Look for clear skies, warmer temperatures and locally gusty afternoon breezes on Tuesday under high pressure.
Locally heavy rainfall across North Florida through Tuesday Band of showers/isolated thunder continues along and just N of east-west warm frontal boundary that is forecast to remain over north-central FL through Tonight. Another wave of heavier showers/isolated thunder is forecast to affect nctrl FL later Tonight, with scattered showers further north due to weak isentropic lift north of the warm front. Cooler temps will filter in by Wed Morning with mid/upper 40s across SE GA/Suwannee Valley and lower to middle 50s along the coast and the rest of NE FL.
Pleasant spring day across Northwest CA today as high pressure weakens ahead of an approaching front.
Active westerly flow will amplify this week, with several deep troughs ejecting out of the PAC into the CONUS. Quasi-stationary baroclinic zone is beginning to lift back NE as WAA ensues with the advancing upper ridge. Lee side trough will shift east Tues as a ridge topping impulse shifts east. This system will support a cold front into the region Wed and highs over the northern 2/3 will depend on the timing of the front, with cooler temps possible north of I90. Attention then turns toward the potent upper trough expected to affect the region Thu-Fri. Broad lift in place and growing elevated instability will eventually support SHRA/TS Thur afternoon with the theta-ridge in place.
High pressure crosses mid week, with a stout warm up through late week. Trough axis centered over the Great Lakes will shift eastward through Tuesday, with generally cyclonic flow in place. Most of the dynamics assisted with main trough axis will remain well to our north through Tuesday.
The latest suite of CAM models suggest the low stratus deck across most of North Dakota will continue through this evening with some clearing in the west.
Winds through the period are forecast to be breezy out of the north into the evening hours behind a cold front pushing south across the CWA and then become light tonight into Tuesday. A cold front was sagging southward at mid morning and was positioned across Northwest Oklahoma to just north of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma and into Southwest Missouri. the cold front will continue to shift southward through the CWA with breezy northerly winds while the upper level impulse pushes eastward across Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma. have added a few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids to account for cold front moving through along with current trends and observations.
An upper level ridge builds over the Central Rockies Tuesday.
235 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 A series of low pressure systems will track offshore of the southeastern U. coast through Tuesday, while unseasonably cool high pressure will builds/extends across the middle Atlantic region. Lows tonight in the low to mid 40s. The airmass moving in behind the aforementioned system will support highs in the lower to mid 60s, which is about 5 or so deg below normal. Mid/upper level ridge will amplify over the SE US late week,in response to the deepening cyclone over the central US.
Upper level broad trough will continue to traverse across the eastern third of the CONUS through the end of the period, with a surface warm front lifting northward into the region.
The ridge axis drifts east of the area by Tuesday afternoon which allows winds to become southwesterly in advance of a weak system due in tomorrow night.
330 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 While high pressure continues to build into the region, low-level moisture has been slow to scour out across southern IN and portions of northern Kentucky. Under the clouds, temperatures were in the lower to middle 40s, but have warmed into the lower-mid 50s in the sun. Temperatures should remain in the upper 40s to the lower-mid 50s across the region before dropping into the upper 30s to the lower 40s this evening. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the east to the mid-upper 30s in the west. For Tuesday, we'll see another partly cloudy day with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Tue night will range from the upper 20s in the east to the lower-mid 30s in the west.
Colder air quickly returns for the weekend as a storm system pulls east, with the cooler air potentially hanging on through the start of the new work week. All favor pcpn with the higher chances across northern/eastern WI. The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with taking an upper level trough from the west coast, strengthening it as it drives across the rockies into the plains (developing a closed low), gradually taking on a negative tilt as it moves away to the new england states. System's warm front sets up west-east through IA Thu evening with a strong push of low level moisture transport into/across it (50kt 850 mb jet) - fueling bands of rain showers.
Expect a 7 to 10 degree increase in high temperatures on Tuesday as the ridge shift overhead.
Currently, high pressure currently settling in over the area. Allowing us mostly clear skies tonight giving way to lows in the lower 30s. Tuesday, we will continue to warm up with highs in the lower 70s across the Tri-State area, and lows over night will be in the lower 40s.
Have also added mention of patchy freezing fog for locations in the warning, though the best chances for this to occur will be across the border counties of northeast Oklahoma where measurable rain occurs this afternoon. Warmer temperatures are on the way for the middle part of this week as high pressure slides off and low pressure develops to the west.
By tomorrow, expect a weak warm front to lift through the area as high pressure settles to our south and east. This will mark the beginnings of the highly anticipated warming trend that many have been waiting for, with low to upper 50s expected across much of the area by afternoon. Along with the warmer temps, expect breezy southwest winds with gusts approaching 25 mph during the afternoon as the pressure gradient increases in response to pressure falls upstream across the High Plains.
High pressure crosses mid week, with a stout warm up through late week. Trough axis centered over the Great Lakes will shift eastward through Tuesday, with generally cyclonic flow in place. Most of the dynamics assisted with main trough axis will remain well to our north through Tuesday. High pressure dominates the short term , building from the southwest as a deep upper level trough exits to the East.
Temperatures will drop overnight as skies clear, with readings in the low to mid 40s for most locations. Winds will return to the south, with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40s in areas along and north of the I-20 corridor.
225 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Another cold front was shifting across southern Missouri this afternoon in response to an approaching upper level disturbance.
Cold front will push through the region by early this evening with winds increasing especially along the coast. As the cooler air builds into the region from the north, ceilings are expected to slowly lift to MVFR from north to south late tonight. A weak warm frontal boundary was located from over the offshore waters into the southern Coastal Bend and then south into deep south Texas. The cold front will push into the region by early this evening. Cold front will push into the coastal waters early this evening.
Once the light rain/snow mix exits the area early this morning, high pressure advancing from Winnipeg to Little Rock will provide us with cool but dry weather with partly cloudy skies and a light north breeze through the short term.
Feature will be sufficient to drive a cold front across the forecast area through the overnight hours bringing no more than a few showers to the coastal waters and possibly the immediate coast.
High pressure will last another 18 to 24 hours for most, with the west side of the forecast area breaking down first, in response to a large trough entering the west coast.
Broad upper troughing will start to retreat but thermal troughing will still continue through the next 36 hrs. Overnight lows will flirt with freezing along our northern Plateau, with mostly lower to mid 30s elsewhere.
High pressure will build over the area tonight then gradually shift downstream through midweek.
Expect moisture to remain trapped under the ridge. A weak short wave trough may brush the northern portion of the cwa Tuesday and we did include some small chance PoPs for now.
High pressure will bring dry weather to central Indiana through the late week. Then, a strong low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the area this weekend.
With the slower movement of the cold front down to our area, will be keeping the lower CIGS in place for the rest of the afternoon. The IFR CIGS/VIS should make a return this evening (and possibly overnight through early Tues morning for the south- ern half of our TAFS) before the cold front (and its cooler/drier air mass) makes its way down to the coast. /ISSUED 946 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ Surface analysis this morning still has weak high pressure over the area with light NE winds. Another frontal boundary was taking shape over the central Plains with high pressure over the northern Plains. with a weak ridge over the western U. and a short wave trough over the Rockies. Frontal boundary from the plains should push into the area overnight with northerly flow tomorrow as high pressure builds south.
Coldest temperatures up in Southwest Virginia could near freezing, but hopefully the lingering cloud coverage keeps any frost away from the area and locations further west hopefully remain warm enough that even with clearing skies we don't see much in the way of widespread frost. With sunnier skies temperatures tomorrow should be several degrees warmer than what we experience today.
A stronger area of high pressure will move across the area Tuesday, resulting in dry weather and temps a bit below normal.
A ridge of high pressure will provide sunny skies today with a brief warm-up early this week.
Winds will be light overnight as well with the high pressure ridge translating over the Northland, so good radiative cooling is expected. A mid level trof and its surface cold front will move through the eastern potion of the forecast area Tuesday night. A mix of rain and snow is possible early, becoming all snow after 10 pm, then ending by the overnight hours as high pressure arrives from the West.
1116 AM MDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over southwestern South Dakota/northwestern Nebraska, with high pressure over northeastern Montana/northwestern North Dakota. Ridge is in place along the west coast. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible over the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and the Bear Lodge Mts, with little or no accumulation expected elsewhere.
335 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s to middle 60s across the Midsouth Generally 8-13 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal.
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon, a warm ridge of high pressure will be in control over our region. This will finally allow daily high temperatures to climb above freezing and provide some substantial melting of the snowpack.
Have cancelled winter weather advisory based on continued improving road conditions with temperatures climbing above freezing.
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 As one system is exiting this morning, another weak disturbance and surface cold front will push through the region today. Another chilly night is expected tonight, as skies clear out from the west and winds diminish as high pressure builds into the region.
The wind will then turn around out of the west or southwest on Tuesday allowing for a nice warm up into 60s over most of south central Nebraska to the lower 70s over north central Kansas.
A short- lived ridge of high pressure will develop tonight and allow for clearing skies and the potential for some valley fog or low clouds to develop. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 20s to near freezing for most areas in western Montana and into the 30s to near 40 in central Idaho.
Temperature recovery through Tuesday will continue to be limited though as the Upper Ohio Region remains under the influence of broad upper troughing.
201 PM MDT Mon Apr 9 2018 An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region through Tuesday morning. On Tuesday afternoon, an upper level disturbance will approach from the west, bringing with it a chance for rain showers and cooler temperatures.
An area of stratus behind a weak cold front across the northern Texas Panhandle may try work southward with the front. A cold front will sweep though the area bringing mostly VFR clouds with some risk of MVFR clouds late this afternoon into the overnight hours. /issued 448 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ Today won't be near as windy and warm as yesterday thanks to Yesterday's late evening cold front.
On a positive note, the period will start off a little warmer under a building upper ridge.
An area of low pressure will continue to move to the northeast and away from northern Florida, keeping a weak frontal boundary across north-central FL. Tonight, another area of low pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and stretch over central and south Florida on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
115 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 H5 Analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude trough of low pressure extending from northern Minnesota into the Texas panhandle. Within this trough, numerous upper level disturbances were noted over eastern South Dakota, western North Dakota, southern Colorado and Oklahoma. The frontal boundary will begin to lift to the northeast as a warm front later this afternoon, pushing into the western half of the forecast area. Expected cloud cover will hinder the warmup, especially in the northeastern forecast area, and trended temps toward the cooler MET guidance.
1053 AM PDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure will produce mild and dry weather today, but rainy and breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to push south through Texas late this afternoon and evening. Isentropic lift in the low level moist layer will keep a chance of showers over much of the region as the frontal boundary pushes into the coastal waters. A short wave trough moving into the Texas Big Bend will move into the region overnight. The strong inversion around 5-6 kft will weaken tonight due to lift associated with the frontal boundary and an influx of mid level moisture ahead of the short wave trough. Temperatures will be warmer for most areas on Tuesday in this drier air mass. Cooler air behind the front will arrive into the waters during the overnight hours with a period of strong northeast winds lingering through the morning hours.
329 AM PDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Dry and warmer weather will continue today with a subtropical air mass keeping nights warmer.
410 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A large area of showers extends from the Straits of Florida well south of the Lower Keys to the island chain and further to the east/northeast. Under cloudy skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 70s. A cold front extending from the Florida/Alabama border will push southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico today, and will be through the Keys service area by late afternoon/early evening. Enjoy the cooler and drier conditions from Tuesday through at least the balance of the work week.
200 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 08z surface analysis had ridge across the northern Plains, just east of the CWA.
A low pressure system will move in Tue, bringing a return to showery weather with more seasonable temps that will last through mofe of the rest of the week.
356 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Snow across southern portions of the Ohio Valley will end early as low pressure tracks off to the east.
408 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Dry and relatively warm high pressure will be present over the Northern Rockies through Tuesday.
Warmer and increasingly windy through Tuesday. Upper level ridge over our area today will shift east of us tonight and Tuesday. As it does, our CWA will come under southwesterly flow aloft tonight, then stronger and warmer southerly flow aloft later Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon a Pacific cold front will approach eastern Oregon.
548 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Snow across southern portions of the Ohio Valley will end early as low pressure tracks off to the east.
414 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Early morning water vapor imagery shows closed upper low moving across the TN valley into the southeastern states.
/Pelatti 06Z: High pressure will keep VFR conditions prevailing over the aviation area.
/NF/ Surface analysis had 1008mb low over northeast Tennessee with the trailing cold front near Interstate 59 in our southeast zones. Some clearing was noted on satellite imagery behind the cold front but the closed low noted spinning over western Tennessee will help send some stratus our way after midnight. This low will continue tracking east southeast through Monday morning and bring a decrease in cloud cover to our CWA by mid morning.
353 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the region, expect mild temperatures to slowly move into the area over the next few days.
324 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 An upper level ridge pattern over the U. As snow melts during the warmer daytime hours, expect some increase in boundary layer moisture which could increase the potential for fog formation as a nocturnal inversion sets up.
318 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Weak surface and upper level ridging over the North country tonight will shut down residual light snow showers and provide quiet weather tonight and Monday.
515 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Dealing with some low VFR/MVFR ceilings this morning across portions of Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas this morning which is a remaining cu field in the wake of an upper level trough which currently resides across the Tenn Valley this morning. Winds will gradually subside with the pressure gradient relaxing as cool Canadian high pressure builds south toward our region.
129 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A low pressure system will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
A wind advisory is in effect for elevations above 1000 ft along the coastal hills later this afternoon as south and southeast winds ramp up ahead of an approaching cold front. Some light rain or sprinkles are possible in the afternoon as the warm front precludes the cold front. The wet pattern is expected continue through the weekend with an upper level low in the area.
Not expecting much Valley fog, unlike last nite, as warmer temps have resulted in wider RH spreads compared to last nite. The high cloudiness should generally decrease Mon morning as the weak impulse exits and before cloud cover approaches ahead of the advancing Ern Pac trof. Forecast soundings indicate some lower level cloudiness will be forming in the Valley during the morning hours, mostly in the 4-10 kft range as the air mass moistens ahead of the advancing trof and frontal band. JHM The ridge of high pressure will be breaking down as the next system approaches the region on Monday. Models continue to indicate the possibility of showers developing ahead of the cold front. Shower or light rain should increase Monday night for most areas as the cold front approaches. There are some timing differences with the passage of the cold front.
419 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the central plains and another over northern Manitoba and Ontario. The trough over central Canada will move south and affect the upper Great Lakes tonight and the lower Great Lakes on Mon. Tuesday into Tuesday night: An upper-level closed low is progged to slide southeast from eastern Upper MI and southern Ontario into the lower Great Lakes through this time period. This will set the stage for final snowfall totals from Monday through Tuesday evening of around 4 to 8 inches over the high terrain north-central and 1 to 4 inches elsewhere downwind of Lake Superior. Again, the heaviest snowfall totals will likely be in the high terrain of the north- central U.
/issued 1107 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ Mesoscale update: Radar, satellite, and surface observational trends suggest 2 or 3 confluence lines over the eastern Gulf in advance of the cold front, which is now moving across the northern Gulf, having just cleared Apalachicola.
421 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with northwest flow over the CWA.
358 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 High pressure and clear skies have dominated the forecast this morning. High pressure at the sfc will dominate as an upper ridge slowly transitions east over the Plains by mid to late week.