Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH SFC PRESSURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 15-20 KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL MIXING MAY PRODUCE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A CROWELL TEXAS TO LAWTON TO SHAWNEE LINE AT 345 AM. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. SLIGHTLY PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
Grassy and other favorable surface may see brief accumulations less than an inch as the warm front moves NE through the area. The cold front will arrive later today and keep the pcpn threat high, but snow levels will rise enough to keep valleys as rain. bz 18Z TAFS: A warm front will move through the region today. with a cold front following around 00-02z early this evening. then moderate to heavy showers will move through the region with the cold front. Gusty southwest winds of 15-24kts and gusts 25-35kts can be expected with and behind the cold front passage this evening.
1027 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. FAVORED AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING.
COLD FRONT POSITIONED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN CWA BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH. TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
1239 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 UPDATED TO REFLECT POSITIONING OF PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. LINE OF SHOWERS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH. /ISSUED 1113 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS S AR AND ADJACENT NE TX TO CONTINUE MOVING SE TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE MO TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A COOLER. MAY FURTHER LOWER POPS DEPENDING ON TRENDS BY MIDDAY AS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST BEGINS TO ENTER RED RIVER VALLEY PORTION OF OUR AREA.
102 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SHOWERS WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
931 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
A cold front has brought gusty northeast winds to the TAF sites this afternoon. /issued 345 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ Not many changes to the current forecast, as WV imagery shows a continuing pattern of NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as an upper trough moves thru the Central Plains. This will change fairly quickly as a cold front to the northwest and north of the dryline begins scouring moisture south and east over the next few hours, w/the hires NAM putting fropa at KMAF at around 11Z. On Wednesday, however, a secondary trough will dive out of the nrn Rockies, spawning a leeside trough along the Front Range and down into the Texas Panhandle.
THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH. TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER.
332 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE EXTENDED FROM MERIDIAN TO MCCOMB MS AND ADVANCING EASTWARD UNDER WARM LAYER ALOFT. SOME WAKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR A FAIR WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE WINDS STEADILY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY AND ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
1252 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1150 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED CROSSING LOW PRESSURE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT ACRS CNTRL OH TO SRN PA SHOULD MOVE N AS A WRM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES TWD THE OH VLY RGN. LIMITED INSTABILTY AHD OF THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS ARE PSBL ESP N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
A digging upper level short wave trough and associated cold front will sweep southeast across the region this morning. We do expect convection to fill in immediately behind that surface cold front across west-central Missouri and southeastern Kansas over the next few hours. The high temperature forecast today was tricky as strong cold air advection will develop behind the front. High pressure will then settle southeast across the Mid- Mississippi Valley tonight and will result in quiet weather and quickly decreasing winds.
934 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PARK AND GORE RANGE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY TODAY FROM LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND EXPOSED RIDGES OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL DISSIPATE WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
1110 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS TOWARD SE TX THIS MORNING. ATTENTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SPORADIC GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED. A COOLER DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SO INTRODUCED 10 POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REPEAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS CO. SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY WARM WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
SLOWLY MOVG SOUTH OF I-20 ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH. COLD FRONT ONLY LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND TROF.
1021 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE CONTINUED. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ARE UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHT.
1159 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 The 30+ degree cooler temperatures we'll see today will be short- lived as that cooler air mass quickly shifts east of the region. But these warmer temperatures will occur with gusty winds too and as a result there will likely be high fire danger.
A warm front is moving across western Montana this afternoon. It has caused some snow showers in the mountains, but as it pulls warmer air north most areas are transitioning to rain quickly. A strong cold front tonight will bring wind as the main impact to the valleys, and some snow to mountain passes. The strong winds will be short lived and come with the cold front as it passes, probably lasting around half an hour to an hour at most.
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW MORNING. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF RIDGE. WILL NOT MENTION FOG FURTHER NORTH DUE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY AT 12Z TOMORROW.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGHS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A SECONDARY LINE OF RAIN HAS FORMED BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BEFORE THE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOCATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE THE RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY DAWN. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND AFFECTING OUR REGION. STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NAILING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
448 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD WEAKLY AT THE SURFACE, BUT WITH FLOW THIS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON, A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD STILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND INTO THE EVERGLADES.
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 [Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon before cigs lower this evening ahead of a cold front.
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR INTERIOR ZONES TO UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS LOW LEVEL HEATING AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SURFACE WARMING. BUT THE LOW LEVEL TURNING LOOKS VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE IN THE CARDS WITH THE HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR SPEED AND ORIENTATION. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND AND ESPECIALLY HAIL THREATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE BECOME COOLER ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. 14 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH DIPPING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
SO KEPT THEM COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
/ISSUED 441 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUITE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AS IS SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIVING ACROSS THE CWFA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S, THE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND WIDEN THE DEW POINT SPREAD, KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR, INCREASING WIND, AND THE DIURNAL DECREASING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY.
This will push a cold front across the forecast area.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND WINDS INCREASE TO A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW.
323 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z TONIGHT AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER MAKER AND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.
246 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SHOWERS WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
938 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE CONTINUED.
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND IT.
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR INITIATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 06 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THE FL PENINSULA ATTM MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AND THE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WAS ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THUS KEEPING FOG AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. PULLING THE ASSOCIATED LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS PAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN.
COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED NEAR A BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO EAGLE PASS LINE. TEMPS HAVE SPIKED INTO THE MID 80S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. COOLER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.
IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY.
257 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MAKES IT WAY EAST. RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REGION FOR THU/FRI. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU AS SOME COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE MORNING HOURS.
202 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN COOL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 1110 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS TOWARD SE TX THIS MORNING. ATTENTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1136 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND LINGERING SNOW PACK. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SUFFERS FROM SATURATION ISSUES IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
1220 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
/issued 245 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ Not many changes to the current forecast, as a dry forecast under upper level ridging continues. CAA overnight from yesterday's cold front has resulted in a slow start to warming this afternoon, w/highs expected to top out several degrees below normal.
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
535 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 IMPROVEMENT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT VERY SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST.
A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS WILL BUILD AN ENVELOPE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OUR SFC FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30KTS ON OUR VAD AT 2KFT. AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERING THE EAST/CENTRAL THIRD OF CONTIGUOUS U. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING EAST AND COLDER LOW LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER.
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST.
However, the higher terrain of the Callahan Divide will likely remain just above 30 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, some low-lying areas where the boundary layer strongly decouples may briefly reach the lower 20s.
An Omega Block/Strong high pressure along the W Coast will shift inland as the deep cyclone over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley swings up to the NE. Energy from the Gulf of AK trof will weaken as it encounters the blocking ridge so a dry and unseasonably warm week of wx is ahead for Norcal. It should be mentioned that the 08/12z operational GFS did forecast a system will break through the ridge around the 17th/18th. Cooler min temps are forecast over most of the area due to a lack of mixing wind overnite even in the Siernev.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
450 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE THROUGH FCST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STAYS PUT OVER WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
Strong upper low over the Great Lakes has moved a bit east today with high clouds moving into western and central portions of Kansas over the western CONUS ridge. Winds over the lower few thousand feet remain rather strong from the NNW tonight into Tuesday but will steadily diminish in speeds.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WE WILL REMAIN IN A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST.
/ISSUED 310 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERING THE EAST/CENTRAL THIRD OF CONTIGUOUS U. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING EAST AND COLDER LOW LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER.
Northwest winds continue through tomorrow as a dome of high pressure continues to sit over the Southern Plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 20s with highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 40s across northern Kansas to upper 50s across far southwestern Kansas.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 4-8 DEG F ABOVE YDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND 6-12 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Large trof remains centered over the Great Lakes region thru the OH Valley. This trof continues to send s/w swd over the area.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER ERN NOAM. WINDS WERE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND A RIDGE OVER ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO. OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.
/ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
STRONG JET CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH. AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF AZ. IN THE 80S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.