Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
252 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Tonight and Monday: mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1022mb high ridging back along the Gulf coast states from the east. Surface ridging is expected to continue to inhibit convection in east Mississippi through the period. The increase in moisture and associated cloud cover will hold morning lows in our west warmer than normal while our eastern zones dip back into the 50s. Afternoon highs Monday will reach the lower 80s but top out a degree or two cooler than normal thanks to the rain chances and increase in cloud cover.
301 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Tonight may be fairly uneventful with weak s/wv ridging moving across the area. The warm front across the region is fairly inactive given the lack of overall support.
1250 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to move eastward into Monday.
Then there will be a couple of dry, cooler days before a more active shower and thunderstorm period finishes the week. An area of low pressure is crossing Hudson Bay and some of the energy from that system is causing some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity along the International Border this afternoon. An even warmer day is expected tomorrow as an upper level ridge builds even more strongly across the Northland. As expected under a ridge, shear is lacking and will be the limiting factor.
The closed low spinning to our west will close in overnight, allowing an increase in available moisture. Moisture wrapped around the low will spill over the Divide, with convective showers developing across the San Juans and central ranges by noon. However, HiRes guidance maintains a wide area of stratiform precip streaming back across the central and then southern sectors of the CWA as the low rotates toward southeast Colorado overnight.
Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s as of 2 PM, with some cooler readings across the far east behind the lake breeze.
138 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 A rather weak overall flow pattern will continue over our region while an upper low over California drifts toward Arizona. The upper low will shift into Arizona on Monday and push some moisture further north into western Montana.
The main weather feature through Monday night will be the closed upper low currently centered over southern Nevada. The highest POPS for 40 to 50 percent across southwest NE, to only a slight chance northern NE. Monday night, the closed upper low will move into CO and NM, with a disturbance lifting from northwest KS into southwest NE.
Less cloud cover this morning as a closed low continues to track southward through CA.
130 PM PDT Sun May 16 2021 Low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra and Indian Wells Valley this afternoon. As the low moves east into the Four Corners region on Monday, left over moisture over the Sierra will allow for some additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
215 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Warm front was located just north of the CWA early this afternoon and we've seen temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s so far with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature for the remainder of today and tonight.
Eventually the highest PoPs will transition to the east and eventually the north.
326 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure remains over the Eastern USA the next few days, providing mainly fair warm weather.
308 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 GOES 16 water vapor imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft associated with a northern stream upper trough axis beginning to erode cirrus just north of the forecast area. Radar highlights lingering shower and isolated thunder activity with MCS remnants and unstable cumulus meandering across much of the region, but warm air advection aiding this activity will build east out of the region this evening as the upper trough moves in. Southeast SD and southwest MN should see temperatures drop into the 40s, but it will be warmer further southeast across northwest IA where clouds linger longest. On Monday, mostly dry conditions prevail as a quasi-Rex block develops between the northern stream upper ridging and a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest.
132 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
325 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Currently have an upper circulation lifting across north central OK with a closed upper low spinning over southern CA. Additional storms are once again expected to develop out over the High Plains late this afternoon/early evening and will track east overnight. The eastward progression of this activity will be aided by better jet dynamics and upper diffluence spreading east as the upper low rotates into NM/southern CO. By Wed morning weak upper trough will extend from eastern CO into eastern NM with both ECMWF and GFS agreeing on a weak upper impulse lifting across the Ozark region. Good model agreement on a deep upper trough digging over the West Coast for Thu into Fri with some upper energy lingering under the upper ridge from IA into Eastern OK.
Low pressure approaching the state will bring dry and windy weather today, with decreasing daytime temperatures.
/issued 645 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ 12Z TAFS VFR ceilings will prevail through the day before lowering to MVFR after midnight as showers and thunderstorms develop in association with the approach of an upper level trough. The tightening pressure gradient between the surface reflection of this trough and high pressure centered over the eastern U. Much more widespread convection is expected Monday as the trof axis becomes centered over the region.
Synoptically, closed upper level low digging from Nevada into Arizona will continue its eastward progression with pockets of vorticity and moisture are advected into the region along with slightly below seasonal temperatures for daytime highs.
151 PM PDT Sun May 16 2021 An area of low pressure over Southern California will continue to bring areas of drizzle and light rain from the coast to the coastal mountain slopes through Monday night along with gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts.
252 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will slowly move south of the region through Monday.
High pressure in the western Atlantic, ridged through the Carolinas, will dominate the weather through most the week. Continental air in the mix with the ridge in place will keep dewpoints just below 70, with shallow moisture depth. Interesting pattern evolution in the western Atlantic occurs by midweek as a deep upper trough and cyclone is carved out near and north of Bermuda, with upper ridging becoming entrenched over the southeast U.
A strong upper low is in the desert southwest of the U. This upper low has now sent the first of many impulses that will make for an all wet work week coming.
A low pressure system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today and Monday, mainly across Eastern California and Southern Nevada.
Ridging surface and aloft will provide a dry and warm day. Thanks to the increased moisture, cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight lows will be rather muggy with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the west to the lower 60s/some upper 50s remaining in the east.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021/ An upper ridge will build over GA and surrounding states during the short term.
Upper level analysis shows trough passing to the north, with low over the southwestern Conus.
/22/ Ridging surface and aloft will provide a dry and warm day. Thanks to the increased moisture, cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight lows will be rather muggy with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the west to the lower 60s/some upper 50s remaining in the east.
A mid level closed low, currently located over the Desert Southwest, will move east through period into New Mexico. In response, drier and more stable air will move into the region with clearing skies and warmer temperatures.
With afternoon temps reaching into the low 80s allowing surface based convection developed early this afternoon. Monday will see temps climb into the 80s again and possibly a 90 degree reading in the northern valley with 925mb temps in the 18 to 22C range under 500mb ridging. A closed low in the four corners region is to blame for moisture to start with. As the low begins the process of being reintegrated into the jet stream, moisture advects into our region because of a jet streak.
333 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to move eastward into Monday.
118 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Happy Sunday! Ridging across the Plains and a longwave trough over the west- central Atlantic will maintain a northwest mid and upper level flow across the Carolinas.
248 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Latest surface analysis shows a center of high pressure over Savannah, GA, which is keeping the area sunny and dry. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the west-central Atlantic continues to move further offshore. Upper ridging pushes into the Southeast from the Plains, which will be the main story for the near term period and beyond. Ridge starts building on Monday, so expect more sunshine and high temperatures tick up a little bit more to near 80, with mid-to-upper 70s possible near the beaches.
204 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 Strong upper level ridge has been keeping us dry and unseasonably warm the last couple days and will continue to do so for at least another day or two. Ridge axis will start moving east Monday and be replaced with a southwesterly flow aloft being provided from a strong upper level Low beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest.
Weak surface ridging extends westward into the region, and a weak 500mb ripple is poised to drop southeast through the area this afternoon. Further south, expect lows in the low to mid 50s. Ridging will be amplifying aloft, and thus begins our anticipated transition to summer conditions. More clouds to the south will keep temps a tad cooler.
209 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure remains in control across the FL peninsula with the center of the ridge axis situated to the north, and the upper-level ridge back to the west over the Central CONUS. With the anticyclonic (clockwise) flow around the high, breezy ENE winds are continuing across the peninsula today.
223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 An upper low/trough is centered over Southern California and Nevada with west winds aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. The upper trough moves over the Four Corners region on Monday and a dryline will remain present across West Texas. More storms are expected to develop along the dryline as the upper low moves closer to the region Monday night.
High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep mostly easterly to southeasterly flow over the area. Upper level ridging nosing in from the south will cause temperatures to continue to warm, with high temperatures on Monday forecast in the mid to upper 80s, but dry conditions will keep apparent temperatures closer to the mid 80s.
Upper-level low currently moving through the Plains will be stopped short of our area tomorrow as an upper-level ridge slowly begins to develop.
Differential anticyclonic vorticity advection with confluence aloft will lead to synoptic forcing conducive for ridging across Southeast Michigan Monday.
325 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the week. Expecting a bit more sunshine tomorrow as well, with temperatures climbing the low 70s in most areas.
127 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Temperatures have already warmed rapidly with most areas already in the low to mid 70s. Low-level thickness from the 12z KCHS RAOB supports highs in the low 80s away from the immediate coastline, which would mean we will realize an impressive 30 degree diurnal range today. At the surface, dry high pressure over the East Coast will prevail through the period.
258 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 An upper level ridge will gradually build over the region tonight through the end of the week resulting in generally dry weather and above normal temperatures. Southwestern areas have the best chance of seeing any showers/storms Mon with further drying expected Tue as subsidence inversion strengthens associated with building upper level ridge.
353 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Tonight: High pressure will continue to prevail across the forecast area. Can't rule out seeing a few isolated locations touch the lower 50s late tonight.
819 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Broad high pressure has moved into the western Atlantic off the New England coast and continues to ridge along the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure in the western Atlantic ridges into the Gulf of Mexico and will keep easterly winds around 20 knots through the early morning hours, which has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.
SHRA and isolated TSRA will accompany the low stratus and should linger through mid afternoon.
628 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Tonight: High pressure will continue to prevail across the forecast area. Can't rule out seeing a few isolated locations touch the lower 50s late tonight.
647 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Tonight may be fairly uneventful with weak s/wv ridging moving across the area. The warm front across the region is fairly inactive given the lack of overall support.
954 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure remains over the Eastern USA the next few days, providing mainly fair warm weather.
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to move eastward into Monday.
506 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 19z surface analysis had weak high over northwest half of CWA with weak trough from the central plains into the Black Hills. Water vapour had northern stream energy shearing out over the northern plains and upper low spinning over southwest NV.
1027 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Currently - Expansive high pressure over the eastern United States reaches southwards across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Zonal flow is in place aloft with the lower level ridge aligned across the our area. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain dominant through the overnight period with continued unseasonably dry air arriving in the Keys. Despite the ridging and mid level dry air, guidance suggests inhibition will not develop overnight. Ridging across the eastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
A weak warm front slowly drifting across Kentucky will be the main focus of shower and thunderstorm chances during the short term. Overnight showers and storms will develop from the Plains into the Midwest ahead of low pressure over Kansas and a low level jet poking northward into Missouri. Some shower and elevated thunder activity will develop eastward along the warm front, with the best chances for rain locally being over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will go a bit under guidance on the cool side of the warm front, more in the 70 to 75 degree range.
/issued 238 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ The surface warm front has since passed through the Mid-South and lies just to the north of the KY/TN state line draped back west through MO. Rain chances for this week continue the downward trend as model guidance and ensembles maintain a building upper ridging across the southeastern CONUS. This will result warmer temperatures and overall limit rain chances.
Not the most clear cut PoP forecast for the remainder of night, although the latest CAMs solutions suggest a relative minimum across southeast OK with the higher PoPs focused closer to the upper low/WAA zone across northeast OK into northwest AR.
645 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 GOES 16 water vapor imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft associated with a northern stream upper trough axis beginning to erode cirrus just north of the forecast area. Radar highlights lingering shower and isolated thunder activity with MCS remnants and unstable cumulus meandering across much of the region, but warm air advection aiding this activity will build east out of the region this evening as the upper trough moves in. Southeast SD and southwest MN should see temperatures drop into the 40s, but it will be warmer further southeast across northwest IA where clouds linger longest. On Monday, mostly dry conditions prevail as a quasi-Rex block develops between the northern stream upper ridging and a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest.
Will keep persistent VFR conditions in the TAFs as high pressure continues to dominate the region with occasional mid-decks.
/issued 223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ An upper low/trough is centered over Southern California and Nevada with west winds aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. The upper trough moves over the Four Corners region on Monday and a dryline will remain present across West Texas. More storms are expected to develop along the dryline as the upper low moves closer to the region Monday night.
Another disturbance will trigger a stray afternoon or evening shower on Monday, otherwise mainly dry weather and much warmer/above normal conditions are expected across Central PA from mid week onward. All guidance indicates high clouds associated with a warm front over the Ohio Valley will result in filtered sunshine over southern Pa. Partly to mostly sunny skies and 850mb temps around 8C should translate to highs ranging from the mid 60s over the Laurel Highlands, to the low 70s in the valleys. Building upper level ridge over the Eastern U.
Another disturbance will trigger a stray afternoon or evening shower on Monday, otherwise mainly dry weather and much warmer/above normal conditions are expected across Central PA from mid week onward. Expect isold-sct buildups and shra, and can't rule out a stray afternoon shower, but surface ridging and relatively low PW will limit instability (hence we have removed thunder) favoring rain- free conditions over the vast majority of the area. MaxT will trend warmer to within a few degrees of mid- May climo with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Building upper level ridge over the Eastern U.
Warm front was located just north of the CWA early this afternoon and we've seen temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s so far with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
A mid level trough axis was oriented near the NE/IA state line this afternoon with a well-defined small scale circulation near Plattsmouth with another circulation in southeast South Dakota and additional small-scale forcing evident in north central NE and Kansas. A warm front has set up near the NE/KS border with some low-end instability in the vicinity of the front.
937 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 After getting a bit warmer today with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, temperatures have only fallen off into the mid to upper 60s. Mid to high level cloud cover and these warmer afternoon temperatures are helping to keep temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. With dewpoints from Vinemont to Fort Payne still in the 50 to 55 degree range, think cool spots will again be in those areas dropping into the lower 50s in those areas. Could even see some lows in the lower 60s near the AL/MS border.
630 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Currently have an upper circulation lifting across north central OK with a closed upper low spinning over southern CA. Additional storms are once again expected to develop out over the High Plains late this afternoon/early evening and will track east overnight. The eastward progression of this activity will be aided by better jet dynamics and upper diffluence spreading east as the upper low rotates into NM/southern CO. By Wed morning weak upper trough will extend from eastern CO into eastern NM with both ECMWF and GFS agreeing on a weak upper impulse lifting across the Ozark region. Good model agreement on a deep upper trough digging over the West Coast for Thu into Fri with some upper energy lingering under the upper ridge from IA into Eastern OK.
/DC/ Tonight and Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1022mb high ridging back along the Gulf coast states from the east. Surface ridging is expected to continue to inhibit convection in east Mississippi through the period. The increase in moisture and associated cloud cover will hold morning lows in our west warmer than normal while our eastern zones dip back into the 50s. Afternoon highs Monday will reach the lower 80s but top out a degree or two cooler than normal thanks to the rain chances and increase in cloud cover.
742 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Latest surface analysis shows a center of high pressure over Savannah, GA, which is keeping the area sunny and dry. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the west-central Atlantic continues to move further offshore. Upper ridging pushes into the Southeast from the Plains, which will be the main story for the near term period and beyond. Ridge starts building on Monday, so expect more sunshine and high temperatures tick up a little bit more to near 80, with mid-to-upper 70s possible near the beaches.
648 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will slowly move south of the region through Monday.
714 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the week. Expecting a bit more sunshine tomorrow as well, with temperatures climbing the low 70s in most areas.
1012 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Temperatures are about 2-4F warmer than this time last night, and with a similar synoptic setup, and no more than a few cirrus overhead, temperatures tonight will end up a few degrees "warmer" than last night.
Rux Previous Discussion: Strong upper level ridge has been keeping us dry and unseasonably warm the last couple days and will continue to do so for at least another day or two. Ridge axis will start moving east Monday and be replaced with a southwesterly flow aloft being provided from a strong upper level Low beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest.
540 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 The main features across the region are a mid-level shear axis over the north, and some weak diffluence across the south/southwest portions of the forecast area from an upper low over south-central California. By 18Z Monday the upper low is expected to be just south of the Four Corners Region. Diurnal convection is still expected, but the focus will be over the south again closer to the upper low with possibly a weak wave rotating around the upper low clipping the far south. High temperatures are expected to be about 5+ degrees warmer on Monday than highs today.
Clear/partly cloudy skies can be expected further north as high pressure continues to build into the region. No significant aviation concerns are anticipated this period with continued drying in the low-levels maintaining cigs at 8kft or more. Differential anticyclonic vorticity advection with confluence aloft will lead to synoptic forcing conducive for ridging across Southeast Michigan Monday.
A passing weather system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds to start the week.
The thunderstorms that develop along the high plains this evening will probably weaken as they move into central KS.
341 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 Scattered showers and storms are developing over the high terrain and should start moving out over the plains later this afternoon.