Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front trailed from the center of the Low over Western Oklahoma Southwest across the Lower Pan Handle Region of Texas and into West Texas/South New Mexico and across the Desert Southwest as a stationary system. A warm front that was advertised to move across the Four State Region earlier in the day did not make progress and remained along the upper Texas Coast. The upper trough will enter East Texas near midnight and to the East of the forecast area by mid day Monday and the Mississippi River by middle afternoon.
A weak lee trough on the eastern plains should also cause winds to become gusty in spots east of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon. Northwest winds will continue tapering off through sunset as a low pressure system departs New Mexico to the east.
809 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Low pressure will return wintry precipitation to the area Monday.
At 3 PM CST, light rain, freezing rain and some sleet and snow in SE sections is moving slowly east. Area temperatures are in the upper 20s north to the lower to middle 30s south. Precipitation should move east of the region by mid to late evening with cooler temperatures moving in later tonight with clearing skies.
313 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 An upper level ridge will be building into the area tonight and will be centered over the area on Mon.
/Issued 303 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ Rain was slow to fill in this afternoon as light rain succumbed to drier air in the low levels much of the morning hours. Moisture will be slow to return midweek as current trough will dive down into the Gulf of Mexico where it will gradually weaken with time. This will help shunt moisture east into the lower Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. This midweek trough and associated cold front will usher in the next round of cold air to round out the week.
/issued 327 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ A cold front will continue its advance to the southeast this evening, leaving our forecast area late this evening.
Forecast challenge in the immediate short term focuses on the chance for a resurgence of fog and freezing fog tonight through early Monday morning.
618 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Upper low in northern Saskatchewan Sunday morning continues moving southeast, with a weak short wave extending to its south. The result is a baggy Pacific type trough moving across the area now, with another cold front following it. The January thaw continues into mid-week as ridging aloft builds over the eastern US.
439 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Cloud bases are beginning to gradually lift and skies are beginning to clear over most of the region as a weak transitory ridge of high pressure builds overhead, though some locations remain trapped under a low cloud deck. Forecast models for some of the lower valley locations across eastern Utah and western Colorado indicate the presence of a good bit of low level moisture overnight which will result in some areas of fog. As far as temperatures tonight, strong radiational cooling under mostly clear skies will keep overnight lows several degrees cooler than last night.
437 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Upper low in northern Saskatchewan Sunday morning continues moving southeast, with a weak short wave extending to its south. The result is a baggy Pacific type trough moving across the area now, with another cold front following it. The January thaw continues into mid-week as ridging aloft builds over the eastern US.
Strong high pressure building towards the mid-Atlantic coast will result in a tightening pressure gradient along with increasing NE winds/seas. High pressure will be reinforced to the north at midweek as low pressure slowly approaches from the eastern Gulf.
342 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Cloud bases are beginning to gradually lift and skies are beginning to clear over most of the region as a weak transitory ridge of high pressure builds overhead, though some locations remain trapped under a low cloud deck. Forecast models for some of the lower valley locations across eastern Utah and western Colorado indicate the presence of a good bit of low level moisture overnight which will result in some areas of fog. As far as temperatures tonight, strong radiational cooling under mostly clear skies will keep overnight lows several degrees cooler than last night.
/issued 517 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory. Wind speeds have rapidly decreased late this afternoon as the upper level system responsible for the windy conditions exits the area to the east, and the cold front continues to progress southeastward. /issued 245 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough diving into central Texas, and pushing a cold front south towards West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
532 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor imagery this afternoon capturing a mid-level closed low along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border with a trough extending southward into the eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, another trough was pushing east across the central Plains. Will have to watch this trough as it swings through this evening. A couple caveats though, with a small chance of some very light patchy freezing drizzle for portions of southwest/central WI. Another caveat is HRRR showing the possibility of some light snow right along the trough axis as it moves through. Clearing skies expected for later tonight after midnight as the trough exits east. Monday appears mostly sunny as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
These winds should remain breezy though the night as the high continues to meander east. 00Z MFL RAOB sounding shows a moist layer from the surface to around 800 mb with brisk east northeast flow in the lower levels. /issued 316 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018/ High pressure to the north, has turned the wind more east northeast today. The high will try to hang on as a 500mb trough digs southeast from the plains. This trough will deepen slightly and become enclosed by Monday, and move over the northern Gulf.
MVFR ceilings prevail across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor, including AUS and SAT, ahead of a pre-frontal trough. That trough will move through the region between 01Z-04Z and scour clouds and moisture to the east with VFR conditions developing. Winds turning southwest around 4-8 kts behind the pre-frontal trough this evening and eventually NW 8-12 kts late evening as cold front moves through the region. All model guidance continues to trend further east with any showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop later this evening most likely after 8-9 pm after the cold front passes through the I-35 corridor.
Positively tilted trough is moving southeast across the Panhandles this afternoon, with rain showers exiting out of the region in the next hour or two. A strong cold front that passed through earlier has brought strong northerly winds around 20 to 30 MPH with higher gusts, with pressure gradients and wind speeds expected to decrease afternoon sunset this evening.
A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region through Monday.
517 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory. Wind speeds have rapidly decreased late this afternoon as the upper level system responsible for the windy conditions exits the area to the east, and the cold front continues to progress southeastward. /issued 245 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough diving into central Texas, and pushing a cold front south towards West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
657 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will affect the region tonight, before transitioning to some drizzle and freezing drizzle early Monday morning.
Plenty of cloud cover to stick around in the post frontal airmass, which will also be drier versus cooler, and thus have the largest impact on overnight/morning lows. Effect will be short lived, however, with a warming trend expected WED into THU as south winds return ahead of another more potent upper trof. 13 Strong and gusty south winds, with gusts to near Gale force tonight, will precede a cold front forecast to sweep through the coastal waters Monday morning.
Still a tricky and uncertain forecast for tomorrow morning with freezing rain possible in the area. If they continue on this track the timing for the onset of freezing rain tomorrow should be on track with the current forecast. Any freezing rainfall is expected to be light with only a few hundredths of an inch, maybe up to a tenth expected before it switches over to just rain during the late morning/afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 38 36 52 / 40 70 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 37 35 51 / 20 60 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 29 37 35 51 / 20 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 34 34 50 / 10 70 50 10 NC.
EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GILCHRIST PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON THE CHANCE FOR A RESURGENCE OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
950 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Latest RAP40 analysis showing a large H100-H70 ridge centered over the Carolinas in the process of drifting offshore. Winds will shift more to the east overnight as the ridge axis pushes further into the W Atlc.
Along the Interstate 94 corridor, the main concern is a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain. For the remainder of the area this morning, the largest concern will be whether the showers along the cold front will hold together long enough to move through the area. With the temperatures near freezing, these showers could produce some light freezing rain which would result in some icy roads. From late this morning, strong subsidence in the wake of the cold front will produce wind gusts up to 40 mph across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa from mid morning through mid afternoon. Elsewhere, showery-mostly light intensity pcpn is expected - mostly snow overnight/Wed morning, with some loss of ice in cloud bringing a freezing drizzle potential late morning/early afternoon - then back to snow.
334 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 A strong cold front continues to push off-shore early Wednesday morning, leaving in its wake much colder temperatures and strong wind gusts. High pressure will briefly build in Wednesday ahead of a fast moving upper level disturbance expected to move just north of the region Wednesday night. Early morning surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to push well off of the Mid Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday morning, with a trailing reinforcing frontal boundary progressing west to east across central North Carolina. Temperatures will start the day in the low 20s before rising steadily into the upper thirties west to low forties east, remaining roughly 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
1139 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure is over the area and VFR conditions will continue through the period. A quickly moving cold front will move south through the state Wednesday night and will promote cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday.
1223 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the wrn CONUS and a trough from nrn Quebec into the Ohio Valley resulting in nnw flow through the wrn Great Lakes.
1025 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Deep low moving through eastern North Dakota with cold front into western South Dakota. Cold front will move through the area tonight Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with a trof across the East Coast, and large ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central Canada, with the warm front through the eastern Dakotas.
1021 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 No changes needed to the forecast for the overnight period with high pressure in control. The cold front has pushed through South Texas with north-northeast winds this afternoon.
The strong and persistent upper ridge will retreat to the west coast over the next couple of days. Weather disturbances cresting this retreating ridge will begin to erode the strong valley inversions, and possibly bring some precipitation to the area by the weekend.
With a brisk northwest flow aloft and under clearing skies with decreasing winds, expect a freeze areawide overnight with lows ranging from the lower 20s far north to around 30 across our southeast counties. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s south and west on Wednesday as the low-level advection pattern becomes more zonal.
413 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Latest WPC surface analysis shows the center of a well defined low pressure system over Maine, with a cold front extending south southwest, draped across the far tip of South Florida. Minimum temperatures are on track to plummet into the low 40s near Lake Okeechobee this morning, to around 50 along the east coast metro.
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 The main concern for the short-term forecast continues to be the high fire danger for tomorrow. Conditions will become windy, both ahead of a weak front/trough and even more so in the wake of that feature.
203 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region today.
Sfc ridging in place across the region tonight will result in calm/Lt and Vrb winds. However, the pressure gradient will tighten by mid to late morning ahead of a cold front that will shift S into N TX/SE OK/Wrn AR by afternoon, resulting in SW winds increasing to 10-15kts with gusts to 18-22kts over much of the region. No major changes were made to the going forecast, although minimum temperatures were lowered by a few degrees across East Texas, so all locations should fall below freezing tonight.
This afternoon and tonight: Light southwesterly winds are pushing warmer air slowly northeast with highs in the 50s in the southwestern corner of the CWA and temperatures in the middle 30s over the Buffalo Ridge. Moisture is a little better along the Buffalo Ridge areas through mid-morning which would support the slightly higher PoPs. After the first wave moves through, soundings really dry out, with only a narrow moist layer along the Buffalo Ridge counties centered around 900 mb. For temperatures, have maintained trends towards warmer than normal guidance through the day.
330 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure building into the area will keep things dry with wind speeds also diminish today.
Calm to light winds will begin to increase ahead of a cold front that looks to move in from the NW between 12-15Z for NE OK terminals. High pressure will move in behind the front allowing winds to become light northerly after 00Z.
One worrisome snafu is potential for losing ice crystals for a time in the southwest CWA as drier air wraps around low pressure circulation, hence slightly lower confidence. In addition, an inverted trof extending northwest from the low level circulation may increase the convergence along the lakeshore areas from Milwaukee to Sheboygan in the late afternoon into the early evening. Part of the low level conditionally unstable layer reaches the snow growth region as well.
346 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A progressive pattern setting up over the next five days will begin rather benignly today as high pressure over the northern gulf gradually slides east beneath increasing high clouds brought on by a cut off low centered over the Baja peninsula.
JHM Strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
1015 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Yet another pleasant day on tap thanks to the high pressure to our west while temperatures are running anywhere from 1 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. These clouds may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than those seen today but not much modification anticipated. Having said that, models continue to show 1 to 2 inches, maybe as much as 4 inches for the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains, less for the San Juans. Some clearing will commence from noon onwards Thursday but high temperatures will drop 3 to 5 degrees thanks to the short wave ushering in some cooler air to the area.
Temperatures have responded accordingly and are near or below freezing already across the region with the exception of a few southeastern locations. The somewhat gusty winds that better mixing will promote and the low afternoon RH will help boost wildfire potential, especially in the Arklamiss Delta.
/Issued 1021 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ No changes needed to the forecast for the overnight period with high pressure in control. The cold front has pushed through South Texas with north-northeast winds this afternoon.
High temperatures today will range from only the lower to mid 20s across south central Lower Michigan, to the mid 30s across west central Indiana. Warmer temperatures are then expected this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Brief lake response will commence in the wake of the low, much closer to the lake this time around.
looking for below freezing temps in the lakes region and acrs central Louisiana twrds sunrise.
315 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 As of 300 am, a dry cold front knocking on our doorstep with a thin ribbon of clouds along the boundary moving southeast across the island chain. Temperatures range from the low 60s in the Upper Keys, to near 70 in the Lower Keys. The advancing cold front will bring a refreshing mass of dry continental air to the island chain early this morning, allowing temperatures to plummet before sunrise, and causing dew points to drop back into the 40s/near 50 as cold air advection continues throughout the day.
Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this evening. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward. Low pressure will move across the region just north of the CWA Wednesday night with its trailing cold front passing early Thursday morning.
Thereafter, a wind shift will occur at all sites as a cold front moves across Oklahoma and north Texas. /issued 614 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to all TAF sites on Wednesday.
245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Another dry cold front is poised to drop through the region today.
The rest of the area should stay dry and a bit warmer.
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Quiet weather tonight with west southwest winds ahead of a strong cold front that moves into the area on Wednesday as an Alberta clipper moves out of the northern Plains.
Over the last several days we've had a west coast upper ridge and east coast upper trough delivering a steady diet of cool air via frequent dry frontal passages, followed by brief warmups. However, each successive run of deterministic models and ensembles are breaking down/retrograding the upper ridge off the west coast and digging an upper trough farther southwestward over the intermountain west.
Updated aviation discussion High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather through the foreseeable future.
Gusty north winds subsiding as surface ridging builds in behind boundary this evening. Upper ridging will be moving east tonight as a cold front sets up to our west.
Thus, no worries for freezing precipitation at the moment. Latest RAP BUFKIT soundings indicate a possible period of light/spotty light freezing rain/snow 12z- 18z Wednesday for north central ND and into the northern James River Valley, but omega/vertical motion is either weak, or even downward (sinking motion) during the time period that light freezing rain would develop. Therefore, will keep precipitation chances on the low side. Light freezing rain and/or snow are possible across portions of northern and central North Dakota Wednesday morning as dry air aloft moves in and limits ice production. However, with very little lift within the low level saturated layer generally only a shallow stratus layer is expected with perhaps patchy light precipitation at times.
High pressure will spread over the area the next 24 hours, yielding relatively unremarkable aviation weather conditions. A weak return flow will develop Wednesday afternoon, shifting winds from north to southeast as high pressure over Texas moves farther east and lower pressure develops upstream, but moisture will still be rather limited at that point, as will any significant cloud development. /issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The cold front has passed through the region earlier this morning, but there was minimal visible signal to its passing. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, and with dewpoints falling into the 30s, expect lows tonight to be about 5 degrees below this mornings low, generally in the low 40s areawide. Lows will still fall into the lower 50s with clear skies.
1230 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. The strong cold front has shifted to the east of the area this evening, with gusty northwesterly winds in its wake and mostly clear skies. Expect lows tonight will generally range from the lower 20s NW to the upper 20s S/SE.
Winds will still be elevated tonight, especially across the higher terrain. Given this is localized to the higher ridges and that it should tapper off in the next couple of hours. Northwest winds remain elevated/gusty this evening as a deep trough pivots into New England. At the surface, the cold front has exited off the southeast coast with high pressure building into the region from the west. Add wind and this will lead to wind chills in the the single digits up in the higher elevations to upper teens/low 20s by sunrise. Cold front moving through the state will bring drier and cooler air to the state into late week.
210 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 An upper ridge over the Pacific Coast will remain in place today as an upper level trough remains to the east of the forecast area. Cooler temperatures will prevail today with highs in the 30s NE and 40s SW which is still about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The upper ridge gets moved east on Thursday by an upper trough moving through the Gulf of Alaska and Eastern Pacific.
The next system is over the ern Pacific and is poised to ridge through the ridge and drop southeast across us Wednesday afternoon and evening with some light snow in the mountains and probably a few flurries or areas of very light snow around the lower elevations of central Wyoming late Wed aftn or evening. The nrn portion of this ern Pacific trough then ridge up and over the ridge and drops sse thru Alberta and Saskatchewan Wednesday night, clipping our nern zones Thursday morning. Cold front will push into the nrn zones with strong north wind, especially around nrn Johnson (50 mph+). System is close enough that we might even see a couple hours of light snow/flurries from the Bighorns over to the lower elevations of Johnson County.
312 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Low pressure advancing from Minneapolis to Fort Wayne today and to New York City by tomorrow morning will drag a cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky this evening. Winds will pick up as the compact cyclone moves by this afternoon and early evening. The front itself should be dry, other than perhaps a few sprinkles from around Madison to Carlisle, thanks to high pressure blocking the Gulf and most of the precipitation staying to our north closer to the low. After a breezy night tonight with lows around 30, weak high pressure building in will provide us with much lighter winds Thursday with high temperatures only in the mid 30s to around 40.
Temperatures will moderate through the day today as weak warm air advection pushes in as a warm front passes this afternoon. A weak clipper system will pass to our north tonight and drag a trailing cold front across the early during the early morning hours on Thursday. Low pressure will move across the region just north of the CWA Wednesday night with its trailing cold front passing early Thursday morning.
401 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region today.