Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridging will follow today downstream of a broad upper low sinking slowly southward over the western states. The lows clouds and fog should fully fill in over the CWA over the next couple of hours before gradually lifting and scattering from west to east through the morning and early afternoon hours. A dryline will attempt to sharpen across the central zones this afternoon, but relatively weak convergence along it coupled with subsidence aloft beneath the ridge will likely keep deep moist convection at bay.
Temps aloft will be a touch cooler and with sufficient instability it is not out of the question there may be a few stronger storms. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will remain seasonal but with the higher dewpoints it will certainly feel muggy for this time of year. Weak high pressure will be ridging across south Florida at the surface with a cold front in place across north Florida to start the period. An upper trough will be in place across the region.
Dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures today with some afternoon breezes. Those breezes will continue this weekend with locally windy conditions as well along with slightly cooler temperatures. Latest water vapor and infrared satellite imagery depicts an upper low across the Pacific Northwest with troughing extending southward from there.
An upper level low located over Northern California will remain mostly stationary Friday then slowly drift north on Saturday. Nonetheless the area will be under an active broad trough. Both days though, storm motion looks to be 20 mph or less in at least the Northern third of the CWA, which may be more conducive for some flooding on the burn scars there, especially the Cornet Windy Ridge scar.
255 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will bring sunny, dry weather to NY and PA today, before a storm slides into the northeast and spread rain showers across our region for the weekend. High pressure-induced sunny skies will combine with 13C-15C 925 MB temperatures to produce a mild afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s across most of our region.
Based off the behavior of a few of these discrete cells over in the neighboring cwa, can not rule out a storm or two becoming strong to perhaps severe overnight over the missouri river valley of this cwa, as they ride along the nose of the low level jet.
The hi-res models are still showing weak instability developing overnight across the region as the LLJ increases ahead of this trough. Re-development could occur with the northern portion of this trough, but not seeing much evidence of that yet.
421 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will exit to the east today as low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley tracks northeast towards southern Ohio tonight. The low will exit to the east on Saturday as energy shifts to the east coast.
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will build to the east coast through Friday. An area of low pressure will move northeast through the Tennessee Valley on Friday then shift to the east coast on Saturday.
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 For the ArkLaTex, a vigorous upper low over OK/KN is moving NE and has a large dry slot overhead. Cannot rule out some very light precip with the vicinity of the upper trough to our northwest but coverage wise. All operational models are not able to disseminate the massive mcs over the nw Gulf attm and thus is effect of cutting off inflow into the trough axis overtaking our region.
An upper level low will bring much cooler weather Friday and Saturday along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
Conditions throughout the Mid-South today are more reminiscent of mid October than mid May with temperature readings only topping out in the low to mid 70s, dew points ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s, and mostly clear skies. However, no severe storms are expected due to the area being worked over by the time the cold front moves through the area. All precipitation should be east of the region by Saturday morning as high pressure begins to build at the surface and an upper ridge builds over the region.
336 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Will begin the day with an upper ridge over the area with an upper low over Nrn CA. This low will slowly wobble east as multiple lobes rotate in behind it. Leeside trough develops Saturday. west of the trough the wind will have more of a SW component helping with the development of a dryline.
215 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Low pressure approaches today and moves through tonight. Any fog should be confined to the more protected river valleys since the low lvl flow will be on the increase overnight. Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1 inch. The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Still thinking that the highest QPF amounts will be along the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia.
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area.
The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday. Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the western Great Basin.
The low level air mass over eastern KS and western MO remains very dry though.
Drier mid level air along a short wave ridge will temporarily move in during the morning resulting in partial sun and a lull in convection. An approaching mid/upper trough and associated cold front will approach the area during the mid to late afternoon resulting in de-stabilization of the atmosphere. The scattered storms will linger into much of the overnite and into Saturday as both the cold front and mid/upper trough pass through the region.
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Showers continue to shift northeastward, with the mid to upper trough this morning, across northeast OK. The low stratus/br should mix out fairly quickly from west to east after sunrise. Late tonight through Saturday morning, WAA on the eastern edge of the ridge axis may again support showers and elevated storms across central and northern OK.
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 An upper low was located over northeast KS early this morning with the attendant upper trof extending southward into the southern Plains. Several vort maxes were rotating northeast through the trof and contributing to a sizeable area of rain/showers stretching across southeast and south central MO into central MO. The vast majority of the guidance, with emphasis on the CAMS, have this precipitation lifting to the north/northeast this morning gradually diminishing in areal coverage as the upper low/trof lifts east/northeast. Glass The upper low will continue to move to the east northeast tonight and actually will gradually deepen as the large scale pattern amplifies. The upper trof axis will be located over the far eastern CWA early this evening supporting at least a slight chance for showers in SC IL.
A few storms developed this afternoon along the Gulf Coast seabreeze in north Florida, however, the majority of the convection this afternoon developed along a stationary/warm frontal boundary across south Georgia. The highest rainfall report we received was 4. A trough axis and accompanying surface cold front will approach the area from the W/NW on Friday. Q-G forcing and deep layer moisture out ahead of the front will cause the highest PoPs to occur Friday afternoon through Friday evening.
Deep southwest flow will continue today and tonight as the upper low that started over NE/KS/IA/MO lifts northeast into the Great Lakes Lower Peninsula of MI area by Sat morning. Trough aloft will move across the southeast states on Sat and we will still have considerable moisture and instability for scattered showers/storms so have maintained 50 PoPs areawide.
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country today through early Saturday, with dry weather and above normal temperatures.
651 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will bring sunny, dry weather to NY and PA today, before a storm slides into the northeast and spread rain showers across our region for the weekend. High pressure-induced sunny skies will combine with 13C-15C 925 MB temperatures to produce a mild afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s across most of our region.
The first few thousand feet of the lower atmosphere are saturated with surface dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s early this morning.
The lowest flight categories will impact the western OK terminals.
Strong insolation will help push temperatures into the lower 80s across much of the CWA, although some isolated water-logged areas east of San Angelo may struggle to reach 80 degrees.
536 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures can be expected today before low pressure brings the return of showers tonight and into the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal as ridging passes over the forecast area today. Cloud coverage and mid-level moisture will be on the increase through the afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east of the area and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Aviation A high pressure ridge will continue in control of the weather pattern through the rest of the week and weekend. Minimal short term fcst concerns as high pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern through Saturday and produce mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Pcpn associated with a low pressure system over the lower Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic regions Friday night and Saturday will stay se of our fcst area.
147 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure builds into the region today and Saturday for dry weather and above normal temperatures.
323 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Compact upper low continues to make slow progress across the ern half of the forecast area early this morning. With peaks of sunshine for the afternoon, expect warmer max temps for this afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the plains with max temps closer seasonal norms. As the ridge moves rapidly to the east of the forecast area this evening, low-mid level moisture begins to increase for late this evening, as flow becomes more southwesterly.
A longwave upper level trough will develop over the southwestern United States by Saturday and then persist for several days. In response, lee troughing will develop along with south winds and low level moisture return.
559 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Warm high pressure will build over the area today and Saturday.
The latest water vapor satellite shows an upper level low pressure system spinning across southwestern Oregon at this time. This upper low was responsible for bringing scattered showers to the area earlier this evening. As the upper low slowly drops south into Northern California late tonight models are in agreement that an area of precipitation will breakout over Klamath and Lake Counties extending into portions of southern Deschutes and Crook Counties. By Friday morning there remains some disagreement on the exact location of a band of precipitation which is forecast to swing around the upper low from SE to NW. At this time the highest chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will be across the eastern half of the forecast area. this time moving southeast to northwest across the area as the upper low continues to spin to our south.
The stationary front will weaken later today and tonight as 500 mb ridging builds over the south central plains in response to closed lows moving over the Pacific NW and the Great Lakes states. The NAM and the ECWMF come in warmer versus the GFS numbers and will go closer to a blend of these two models.
308 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A cold upper low will linger over the Sierra and western Nevada into Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today, with the highest chance north of I-80 in northeast California and far northwest Nevada. Fairly vigorous low pressure is dropping into northern California this morning, with good upper forcing and lower level frontogenesis near a 700 mb low forming over northeast California and extreme northwest Nevada. The cold upper low remains overhead on Saturday.
Upper trof continues to slowly swing across the area. Cooler temperatures for today.
1257 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will cross the area today.
Cold front now appears to be pushing its way well into southern North Dakota. Early this Thursday morning a cold front stretched across North Dakota just north of Interstate 94. Cooler and drier air will move in from the northwest this morning and bring an end to precipitation from northwest to southeast through the day. As this feature moves across the baroclinic zone left from the recent cold front more abundant showers and thunderstorms will form but now mainly along and south of the North Dakota border Friday.
A weak trough will move south through California today and Friday. Gradients are trending slightly onshore ahead of the trough and most areas should end up a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, but still 3-6 degrees above normal across inland areas.
A strong cold front will move southward across Kansas on Friday into Friday night as a healthy progressive upper level wave moves across the central plains. Strong convergence along the cold front will interact with the rich gulf moisture and lead to widespread thunderstorms for late Friday afternoon/night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 90 72 / 50 40 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 87 70 / 60 40 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 71 87 70 / 60 40 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 86 67 / 60 50 50 40.
A frontal boundary associated with a deep upper trof that will move across the Central U.
An upper level trough will amplify over the northern Rockies today. This will push a backdoor cold front across the area. It will be slightly cooler Friday. Northerly winds will increase to 10-20KT this afternoon at all TAF sites except KDLS due to a dry cold front moving through the area.
922 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak area of low pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures along with enough instability over the Sierra for a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. /ISSUED / Upper level trof still influencing the weather over the region.
Surface analysis shows ridge axis had settled into north Florida while early morning visible satellite imagery showed the low level ridge axis was even slightly farther southward. Atlantic high pressure ridge settling into north Florida was causing a weaker onshore wind flow.
Pretty typical August day on tap with deep layer high pressure building over the forecast area. Light 1000-700mb flow supports keeping the highest PoPs in Florida. This is also supported by most CAM guidance, which show the highest PoPs over the central and western Big Bend.
626 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 KLBB AND KCDS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MVFR STRATUS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS CYCLE. /issued 336 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ A transition of flow regimes continues early this morning with a pronounced upper level high up near Churchill MB with a training trough back into northern California. A lobe of energy along the southwestern periphery of the Canadian low looks to sharpen over the next 24 hours as it makes its way into the lower 48. Some of the higher resolution guidances suggest that we'll see initiation before noon.
A cold front was diving south through the area early this morning causing winds to turn out of the north northeast. Temperatures today will be a good 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs expected to be in the lower 70s.
Weak upper low currently sagging southward through northern California. By this afternoon, the trough axis should be south of the CWA.
The latest high resolution model guidance shows as the cold front progresses into southeast ND and west central MN by mid to late afternoon, additional showers and storms may break out along the line. This jet, along with the theta-e associated with the high MUCAPEs, will shift east this morning as a low in the western Dakotas shifts east as well.
Slight SSW gradient flow on backside of high pressure tonight should limit a repeat performance of that magnitude.
still seeing breaks in the rain despite the low cigs still in place. Given the high PW/s in place and the ongoing training rainfall.
722 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the region today bringing a chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and will crest over the region on Friday.
Modest warming trend heading into the weekend as high pressure builds. The upper low will keep large scale gradients light but enough inland heating will occur to induce a moderately strong afternoon seabreeze across the Bay Area valleys. Will be watching upper low as models hint at some moisture trying to come off the Sierra and rotate westward each of the next few afternoons. ECMWF solution shows heights building in excess of 590 dm over the weekend with a flat ridge in place. SFO Bridge Approach.
But I do think that the better rain chances, on a whole, will come Friday and into the weekend, as the southeast states upper level ridge weakens a bit and a cold front pushes down into our area from the north.
High pressure ridge across Indiana will move on to the east.
A dispersed upper level low pressure system will start out over the intermountain region of California and Nevada today giving Arizona moist southerly flow responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity again today.
945 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Cold front has been moving southeast across the state with the frontal position forecast to be east of the region by noon. Cold front now appears to be pushing its way well into southern North Dakota. Early this Thursday morning a cold front stretched across North Dakota just north of Interstate 94. Cooler and drier air will move in from the northwest this morning and bring an end to precipitation from northwest to southeast through the day. As this feature moves across the baroclinic zone left from the recent cold front more abundant showers and thunderstorms will form but now mainly along and south of the North Dakota border Friday.
/issued 248 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ Please refer to our web site, Flood Warnings and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service for details on the major and record river flooding that is still ongoing on the lower end of the Amite River basin along with many areas of backwater flooding from Pointe Coupee Parish (False River area) to near Lake Maurepas. Overall, a fairly typical summer weather regime will persist into the weekend with a Bermuda ridge extending from the the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Main focus will be later today as the strong cold front pushes southeast across the CWA. Mid-level heights will also begin to fall as the upper trough approaches. After this activity moves out by this evening, focus will then be on the much cooler temperatures moving in.
/issued 408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover. Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to north of Van Horn.
We will continue to advertise the highest pops across our NW zones with our southern and eastern zones having to wait until slightly higher convective temperatures are reached for an increase in convective coverage during the afternoon hours. heavier downpours will be possible given the higher pwat values across our region and this will continue to be the case through the upcoming weekend as well. The ever present shear axis across our northwest zones will begin to retreat slightly Friday into Friday Night due to increased ridging aloft across the northern Gulf Coast.
959 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the region today bringing a chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and will crest over the region on Friday.
An upper level trough will amplify over the northern Rockies today. This will push a backdoor cold front across the area. It will be slightly cooler Friday.
932 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will cross the area today.
Weak high pressure will remain to our north with a slow southward drift into Friday, keeping the region under relatively light east-southeast flow. Enlongated upper level trough will remain in the vicinity, keeping mid level temps a little cooler than normal at -7C to -8C. Models show a small drying trend, more notable on Friday as the upper level feature lifts further north around the ridge along with its pooled moisture. Upper level trough moving across the Central and eastern US this weekend will flatten out the upper level ridge overhead while at the surface its associated frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South. Low level ridge will also see a southward drift as it begins to break down.
Synoptic setup remains similar through the remainder of the week with weak ridging aloft and a steady moist southerly flow in the low levels. Models depicting a deepening trof advancing across the plains and Mississippi valley going through the weekend.
An upper level shear axis to our south and a weak closed upper low over southeast OK may help develop some isolated convection as far north as far southern MO later today into tonight but otherwise the weather looks low impact. An MCS/storm complex will have the potential to develop as a cold front moves through Neb/KS late Fri.
1241 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
737 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
/Issued 447 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016/ The southeast remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface. Short term models are in good agreement as the upper ridging flattens out through the short term period, allowing increased moisture into west and north GA this afternoon.
The subtropical ridge will briefly build in from the east on Friday to further decrease convective activity. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Friday to cause a rather humid day given the moist soils and atmosphere with more widespread lower 90s.
1001 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016 A weak cold front will gradually move south of the area through Friday before dissipating.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across the gulf coast region, resulting in northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots on our marine district area.
646 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the southern Canadian Rockies and ridging over the Northern Plains and lee-side of the Rocky Mountains. where the higher chances of showers/thunderstorms will occur.