Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
131 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Our region will be between a frontal boundary to the south and High pressure to the north. High pressure builds further south into the area for the middle of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off till the end of the week. High pressure will slowly build southward into the region today and through the day Wednesday. Clouds should keep the lows from falling much below the mid and upper 50's. More clearing Wednesday as the high pressure system continues building southeast and slightly warmer daytime highs as a result. Upstream is a closed upper level low over Missouri which fills and lifts slowly northeast into the western Great Lakes.
225 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure.
334 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Above-normal temperatures during the afternoon will continue the next few days as ridging remains stout as we sit parked between two upper-lows (One over SoCal and another over the Lower Mississippi Valley). Low out west will fade into obscurity as the one to the east slowly exits stage right while the ridge flexes its muscle over West TX. Lows will fall towards normal however, thanks to the abundant dry air nestled in the area as we sit on the subsidence side of the cyclonic behemoth over the Lower Mississippi.
155 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Upper low remains camped out over MS this afternoon. The favorable moisture channel is setup along and east of the axis which extends north of the low. On Wednesday, some west to east curvature and shear will develop to the east of the upper low.
Latest WV satellite reveals an upper wave over S CA, an upper low over AR/LA/MS, and an elongated upper ridge over roughly an NM-NE-WI axis. Moving ahead to Wednesday, upper ridge finally begins to break down, with a bit more notable lee troughing developing in E CO as flow aloft begins to increase in speed. This should allow for a bit of a southerly breeze Wednesday with temperatures trending a bit warmer, reaching mainly the lower 80s during the afternoon. As the ridge breaks down, upper disturbance looks to translate east over the Panhandles Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Due to a stationary low pressure system situated to our east in the SE CONUS, dry air will move into the CWA and eliminate any rain chances through the short term period. As a ridge moves in from the west Wednesday, southerly flow returns with moisture slowly making its way back to Deep South Texas.
Upper low now in southern California will track northeast today and through southeast Idaho tonight, east of yesterday's forecast track. The low produced a lot of lightning in and near San Diego last night, but with the more eastern track we no longer expect thunderstorms in south-central Idaho late today, as we did yesterday. Today will be almost as warm as yesterday but a Pacific cold front will end the warm weather on Wednesday. The front and a few showers will pass through eastern Oregon Wednesday morning and western Idaho Wednesday afternoon followed by much cooler air.
High pressure and dry air will continue to build in over South Texas as we stay on the dry side of a slow northward moving low pressure system over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Guidance is more on board for IFR/LIFR conditions over the E/SE sites with the lowest conditions occurring in the 09-14z window. Going forecast is on track and we're seeing our upper low spin over the region. As we warm into the lower 80s, low and mid level lapse rates will be steep with vertical totals running 28-29C.
A large upper closed low continues to churn over the Lower MS Valley with a resulting zone of dry northerly flow aloft currently positioned over the CWA. The aforementioned upper low will shift slightly northward through Wednesday, with upper winds consequently obtaining more of a westerly component and surface flow becoming more southerly as lee troughing develops over CO.
The surface pressure pattern will be benign as we remain under the stacked and filling upper low. With wet soils from afternoon rains, fog will become a concern as temps fall into the lower 60s and a good portion of the area slips into the upper 50s. /CME/ The upper low retrogrades slightly to the northwest before getting kicked downstream from a wave dropping into the Pac coast.
Upper level ridging will continue across the Northern Plains through the short range. Meanwhile, s/w energy will continue to move northeast through the east side of the ridge, but will have little to no moisture to work with through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be warmer tnt and Wednesday night given the LLJ that will be in place across the region. Wednesday's highs should be slightly cooler vs Today as models do indicate a bit cooler airmass over the region Wednesday afternoon as portrayed in 1/2KM and H850 temps.
340 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and should persist through the end of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off until this weekend. High pressure is slowly building into the region from the north, however abundant moisture will remain trapped under a subsidence inversion. High pressure will continue to build into the area tomorrow and we should see some clearing from north to south through the day with areas of sunshine. High pressure will keep conditions rather quiet and mild during this period.
As the upper level low retrogrades back into southern Arkansas throughout the day today it will advect increasing moisture into the Missouri Ozarks region. Therefore, overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than this morning, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. The cut-off low will continue to trek northward into northern Arkansas and south-central Missouri throughout the day on Wednesday, bringing a continued feed of moisture into the Missouri Ozarks region and increasing precipitation chances throughout the day on Wednesday.
As the western side of the low exits overhead, a ridging pattern will set in, leaving North & Central Texas with continued subsidence. The mid-to-upper level ridging will act to increase the already slightly above normal temperatures we've been experiencing in recent days to well above normal highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
1253 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Dry conditions should prevail for most of the region through the remainder of the day under a building ridge. This is in response to a split flow pattern, will persist today as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low-level easterly flow, are possible this afternoon. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
326 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Our region will be between a frontal boundary to the south and High pressure to the north. High pressure builds further south into the area for the middle of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off till the end of the week. High pressure will slowly build southward into the region today and through the day Wednesday. Clouds should keep the lows from falling much below the mid and upper 50's. More clearing Wednesday as the high pressure system continues building southeast and slightly warmer daytime highs as a result. High pressure will keep conditions rather quiet and mild during this period.
Mainly light showers continue to spread into Middle Tennessee as an inverted trough develops across the mid state.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening along and south of I-15 as a low pressure system moves through. Very active convective pattern in place through this afternoon as a closed low near San Diego lifts into the Desert Southwest and interacts with anomalous moisture and marginal instability in place. Breaks in the cloud cover and cooling mid level temps with the approach of the closed low suggest additional development will remain possible through this evening, particularly in Northwest Arizona and far southern Nevada. Drier conditions resume Wednesday as the low shifts east, however southwesterly flow aloft will result in increasing mid and high clouds by late in the day spreading in from the west.
Today will be the last warm and dry day across the Northern Rockies, before a cold front moves through the region tomorrow. The aforementioned cold front will begin to impact the region from north to south, starting mid morning in northwest Montana and through the afternoon and evening for the rest of western Montana and north-central Idaho. It will however; bring gusty westerly winds and much cooler temperatures. Conditions will remain unsettled with seasonal temperatures through the rest of the week, as the region will remain under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure.
Drier weather is expected late in the weekend as the upper low moves away from the region. The primary cutoff upper level low is still spinning over the ArkLaMiss and given the general blocking pattern, little change is expected over the next 24 hours. With the high amplitude upper level pattern and the cut off low over the Lower MS Valley the synoptic situation will be slowly to change. Current expectation is the moisture associated with the wave will move inland across NC however depending on the upper low to the west this could shift further south and will be monitored.
1232 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A backdoor cold front is expected to move through the area today.
A few more clouds are possible across the east (on the western periphery of the low). Otherwise, temperatures in the low to mid 80s deg F will continue.
The lowest humidities will once again be in the west, but lower than today (around 15 percent) and humidities in the central should drop to around 20-25 percent. Again, temperatures will be a little cooler than today, but still unseasonably mild for early October.
A rather amplified H5 ridge is responsible for the recent warmth as it moves slowly across the northern CONUS.
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 (Today and tonight) A little cooler today across the eastern portions of the area, as weak low level east and northeast flow brings a slightly cooler air mass into the area.
1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Current VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period as high pressure and dry air continues to build in, resulting in no precipitation chances and mostly clear skies. The anticipated dry air continues to move south as an mid to upper level low over the southeast CONUS drifts to the northeast. High pressure will build in today and tonight keeping the dry air firmly in place through Wednesday.
/issued 957 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ Mid-level cloud decks continue to rotate into the Ark-La-Tex from the north on the west side of an upper low, now centered over Northern Mississippi. Afternoon highs in the low to mid-80s are expected with warmer conditions in our western zones.
339 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A weak trough will drift from east to west across the forecast area today. High pressure will build inland later in the weekend. A large mid level low will spin over the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, while a ridge remains over the western Atlantic. At the surface, higher pressure will reside to the north with an inverted trough lingering in the local vicinity. Low temperatures will be around 5 degrees warmer than normal, generally in the upper 60s to around 70, except lower 70s at the beaches. A large closed upper low will remain over the central United States on Wednesday before slowly lifting north and weakening.