Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The Great Lakes wave will eventually drive a back door cold front, surface and aloft, into Iowa tonight as the surface reflection drops down the immediate MS Valley, but again with little sensible weather here due to a lack of moisture.
At 07Z WV and IR imagery shows a deep upper trough and associated cyclones off over the eastern CONUS and a digging trough entering the western CONUS. With this highly amplified pattern, a very pronounced upper ridge is in place over the Rocky mountain region from south to north into Canada. At the surface for northeastern KS is the influence of a broad area of high pressure blanketing the Central Plains through the Southern Plains. The high temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s over the region with mixing heights around the 800mb level.
After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for much of the area, except across the Big Country where highs will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
No low level jet develops tonight as a result thermal ridging aloft. The RAP model was the warmest model while the ECM produced the warmest guidance with highs in the lower 80s.
another clear night for the area as the region remains under the influence of strong ridging from the surface thru 500mb. Surface ridging will remain to our east during this time providing a SSW fetch which will aid in strong surface WAA. H5/H7 ridge will crest over the Central Plains on Saturday then shift east of the area for the latter portion of the weekend.
Periods of -RA will increase this afternoon and then gradually taper off tonight as the low passes to the east.
1050 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 An upper low brings unsettled and cooler weather through the weekend. Moist and cool cyclonic circulation around an upper low, centered to our northeast, will continue to affect our weather through at least Saturday night. Enough cold air aloft will even bring some wet snow to the higher elevations of the northern mountains later Saturday night.
HRRR runs continue to show the deformation band shifting eastward across the forecast area today as the upper low slowly moves out, and will keep pops in the likely to categorical range although nothing heavy is expected. Upper level low moving across mid state region will bring numerous light shwrs, but hard to pinpoint actual timing/impact development and associated ceiling/vsby thresholds. As upper level low shifts eastward/associated cloudiness, rapid improvement in ceiling heights with eventual dissipation of ceilings by 06/04Z CKV/BNA expected.
Although blocky, the pattern will exhibit very slow progression, with an upper low over the central Great Lakes and a deep/broad southward extending upper trof thru the Appalachians, a ridge through the Rockies, and trof along the West Coast.
646 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level flow will be from the north as a highly amplified ridge approaches. With the approach of the ridge, our 850 mb temperatures will have increased to around 11C to 14C by the time we reach peak heating, as we should get easily into the mid 70s under full sunshine. Tonight, lows will generally be in the 40s as a backdoor cold front tries to move toward the area from the northeast, but does not quite make it here by the end of Friday night.
Cooler and drier air overnight has low temps falling into the mid-upper 50s over most of the area.
As a cold front sags south along the Highway 82 corridor overnight and moisture continues to pool ahead of it, clouds will continue to increase and ceilings areawide should lower to at least MVFR categories, with some IFR ceilings possible.
The 500mb ridge extends from Mexico up through AZ, central MT, and western Canada.
638 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level low pressure continues to exit the region at this time taking the majority of the mid to low level moisture with it.
An upper level ridge over the Rockies today will slowly progress toward the high plains by Saturday.
/Issued 412 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ An upper ridge will build over the Rockies today and will build east over the Panhandles over the weekend.
The axis of the activity is associated with the eastern edge of a broad trough of low pressure just of the west coast. Deep moisture will stream from south to north over the area in response to the trough and set the stage for an active late afternoon and evening across SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Satellite imagery indicates the trigger for this second round of convective activity is just now swinging through the base of the trough which is in line with model forecasts. Cold front crossing eastern Oregon 03z-06z and moving into southwest Idaho 06z-09z, followed by west to northwest winds 10- 20 kts.
Scattered stratus development is occurring over far ern WI and may be due to speed convergence from the high wind speeds via onshore flow becoming reduced farther inland. At the sfc, a low pressure area will track from west central WI to ern IL and IN through tnt.
310 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 The final remnants of the system which brought soaking rain to much of the area yesterday will push eastwards this morning, with dry conditions for the remainder of the short term period as high pressure swings south behind the departing trough.
First being a large upper low centered off the Pacific NW. At the surface, low pressure was situated over central IA with attendant cold front extending through eastern NE to southwest KS. An upper ridge/more stable airmass will mean dry conditions will prevail over the CWA tonight through early Saturday morning. Precip chances return on Saturday when the Pacific NW system displaces the upper ridge and brings the next cold front into the region.
317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Overnight storms have cleared the area leaving behind a few showers along the Red River and slightly cooler, drier, and stable airmass for the remaining part of the area in its wake. With that said, there is a low chance for showers and storm development today thanks to a very subtle short wave moving in on the back side of the exiting trough. The limiting factor will be the meager amount of moisture and instability this afternoon which will largely be wiped out by the true cold front (characterized by the lowering dew points near I-44) that is currently passing through the area.
1138 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 A cold front will continue to surge southward this afternoon and move south of the KS/OK border by early evening.
Quiet weather conditions for the short term period under the influence of northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Skies will remain clear due to the aforementioned upper level ridge.
Northwest flow aloft will be in place over the Central High Plains today with an upper trough exiting the region to the east. Dry conditions are expected across the area today with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the east to the mid to upper 70s in Eastern Colorado as a ridge moves over the area. High pressure over Nebraska and Iowa will move to the east on Saturday with flow becoming zonal over the Tri-State area.
A cold front will move into the region late Friday and into Saturday.
Still expect enough clearing across the northeast cwa with lows in the lower 30s. An upper level low pressure currently over the region will continue pushing eastward tonight, with showers generally ending from west to east. The biggest question in the short term is whether or not clouds clear off enough to allow temperatures to drop below freezing. An upper trough will keep temperatures much cooler than normal for late May.
A weak cold front is then forecast to slowly move across the Big Country later this morning and into the afternoon hours, reaching our central counties by mid to late afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 80s across the Big Country to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
A mid to upper level low was situated across Iowa/Minnesota this morning and will shift into the Ohio Valley tonight. As this occurs, a cold front will push into the southeast today and the CWA tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight with 20-40% PoPs. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
334 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 A cold front stretches from northeastern Missouri into central Oklahoma.
The southerly flow will keep temperatures from dropping as far tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 40s for most. The area of low pressure will slowly shift east, and we'll be stuck in between the main low crossing south central SD and low pressure to our southwest. The trough will still be over the western half of South Dakota by the end of the daytime hours Saturday. A series of troughs will influence the region through mid-week.
This is most likely along and north of the Highway 14 corridor from Huron to Brookings to Marshall, but is highly dependent on cloud cover.
The gusty northeast winds are expected to continue today as the low pressure in Northern Illinois and Indiana moves southeast. As the low moves out of the Great Lakes Region, high pressure will be moving into Wisconsin from the northwest. The winds will also gradually diminish tonight as the high pressure moves in and the pressure gradient weakens. The cooler temperatures are expected to continue across southern Wisconsin today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s overnight tonight. The end of the windy and cooler regime will come to an end on Saturday. High pressure will be in control and overhead of the state of Wisconsin.
Dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s, with near 70 dewpoints lurking not very far away. Additional outflow and a weak cold front across Oklahoma overnight will push south as well on Friday.
Frost/freezing conditions possible tonight. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper level troughing was draped from eastern Canada, back to a closed upper system over MN/IA. High Impact Weather Potential: Cold overnight temps Saturday night Pattern Synopsis: Amplified troughing will progress from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley into the NE CONUS over the weekend as upper-level ridging slides into the region in behind. Saturday still looks to be on the cool side with highs near 60 due to continued NE low-level winds keeping some cooler air in place.
This morning: Upper ridge is in place over our CWA aloft as upper low pushes off to the southeast, and WV shows axis of dry/subsidence air in place aloft. This has varied though and some locations in our south are still above freezing where cloud cover lingered a bit longer. Rest of today-Saturday: Ridging aloft should keep dry conditions in place through tonight with warming temps as flow shifts more to the west-southwest aloft and low pressure builds east allowing southerly BL flow to overspread our CWA. A longwave trough is expected to bring rain chances to the area on Saturday.
An upper level trough is expected to move across Texas this afternoon into this evening. With the increased cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures are anticipated to be about 5 degrees cooler compared to today.
NW flow aloft wl help to usher cooler and much drier air into the FA.
This convection is associated with a fairly pronounced cold front. The front will exit the region later today allowing for southerly winds to become northwest up to 10 mph as high pressure rebuilds areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight into Saturday across mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana as a 700mb trough translates east across the northern gulf coast. Despite high temperatures today approaching the mid 80s ahead of the front, much cooler temperatures can be expected tonight into Saturday behind the cold front.
Latest surface analysis depicts low pressure centered near KSTL and a cold front extending southwestward into southwest MO. As the cold front moves through, it may ignite some additional scattered showers and a few isolated storms by midday into the afternoon east of the Mississippi River. These winds will also be ushering in cooler temperatures, with values falling in the afternoon across the northwest half of the cwa. This is due to a mid level trough over the Ohio Valley that will produce overcast conditions for the vast majority of Saturday.
A cold front is sagging south into the area, having passed through HOB and MAF and evidenced by elevated/intermittently gusty NE winds. Currently, a cold front is moving southwest across the area with the front expected to hang up around the Pecos River later this morning. This includes near the Stockton Plateau, along the dryline in SE NM, and then along the lifting warm front in the Permian Basin.
Impressive low level CAA in the wake of the cold front and extensive stratus will result in falling temperatures much of the day with a large portion of the CWA in the upper 40s to 50s by early afternoon. Once fropa has occurred that will be the high for the day, and afternoon temperatures will be 20-30 degrees below normal with gusty northwest winds adding to the chill. We will continue have a threat of spotty light showers across eastern MO and western IL this morning associated a vort max dropping southeastward with the digging trof, and that threat will shift into IL this afternoon and eventually diminish all together.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, primarily over the higher terrain south of US-50.
Rain chances will increase a bit tonight and Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Currently, the area sits in northwesterly flow aloft with an upper low positioned just off to the east over Iowa/Minnesota. Low level stratus continues to expand early this morning and has kept temperatures in the lower 40s across the area. For tonight, the southeasterly flow at the lower levels looks to advect just enough moisture in the higher terrain out west to spark some upslope driven convection. The next system of note begins to approach the area by tomorrow morning as a trough axis swings in. The approach of this trough axis leads to lee cyclogenesis over portions of SE WY/NE CO early tomorrow morning. This drags a warm front north into portions of southwestern Nebraska. Moist advection remains somewhat limited even south of this boundary, though dewpoints in the lower 50s should build near and south of I-80 by tomorrow afternoon.
Central and north central KS may reach the lower 60s where cloud cover scatters by late afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected as midlevel ridging works into the area. The ultimate result will be Saturday morning temperatures in the low to mid 40s, or roughly 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Look for temperatures to dip well into the 50s along the Highway 82 corridor making for a comfortable start to the Memorial Day weekend.
A cold front moving through the area today to allow for light southerly winds to become northwest after 28/18Z. This convection is associated with a fairly pronounced cold front. The front will exit the region later today allowing for southerly winds to become northwest up to 10 mph as high pressure rebuilds areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight into Saturday across mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana as a 700mb trough translates east across the northern gulf coast. Despite high temperatures today approaching the mid 80s ahead of the front, much cooler temperatures can be expected tonight into Saturday behind the cold front.
This activity is tied to a mid-level trough that is expected to shift from Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states -- with a surface cold front that will be sagging across the region later today. However, a least a couple lingering outflow boundaries (along with the approaching cold front) will serve as a focus for additional showers and storms later this afternoon. This activity will wane by the evening with the passage of the cold front. Quite the shock to the system expected tonight into Saturday as a cool, dry air mass will move in behind the cold front.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend today, with afternoon highs running about 10 degrees warmer than what occurred yesterday.
Normal high temperatures for this weekend are in the upper 70s, but we will easily average 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
Moving forward, as the trough aloft continues progressing east, along with the front continuing generally south out over the northern Gulf, deep layer flow becomes more northerly ushering in drier air back into the region going into Saturday. Slightly cooler high temps follow for Saturday with the frontal passage, with generally low to mid 80s northwest of I-65, and mid to upper 80s southeast. Lows tonight will also be a bit cooler then this mornings lows with generally low to mid 60s northwest of I-65, and mid 60s to upper 60s southeast.
/issued 334 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/ A cold front stretches from northeastern Missouri into central Oklahoma.
FRIDAY: It is going to feel quite a bit colder today after the passage of yesterdays cold front.
12 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley moving toward the Southeastern US. High pressure is in place to the east of the Florida Peninsula. While surface dewpoints this morning are generally in the lower 70s across the western portion of the region, the KTAE sounding from 12z shows a rather deep column of drier air above the surface. Expect some of this drier air to mix to the surface today, especially across the eastern half of the region, so not anticipating some of the higher heat indices we saw earlier in the week.
/Issued 317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/ Overnight storms have cleared the area leaving behind a few showers along the Red River and slightly cooler, drier, and stable airmass for the remaining part of the area in its wake. With that said, there is a low chance for showers and storm development today thanks to a very subtle short wave moving in on the back side of the exiting trough. The limiting factor will be the meager amount of moisture and instability this afternoon which will largely be wiped out by the true cold front (characterized by the lowering dew points near I-44) that is currently passing through the area.
As a strong ridge near the west coast spreads into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, the weakness could lose higher latitude support and develop into a weak cutoff near the Baja Peninsula. This would tend to support a modest southeasterly flow and a weak moisture increase, with a decaying H7 theta-e ridge trying to nose in from the east.
An open short wave trough approaching southern California will shift flow aloft to more southwesterly on Saturday. Afternoon gusts this weekend of 20-25 mph are likely across the high country.
While high pressure at the surface is still trying to hang on, there is a slow moving 500mb short wave over the area that may bring enough instability to allow for a few showers, and possibly a couple of thunderstorms to develop in the interior today. However, the chances are still small, with moisture still on the lower side, as evident by the dew points forecast to be in the mid 60s in that area today. By Saturday, a stronger 500mb trough approaches the area, further eroding the high pressure, and allowing some additional moisture to advect into the area. With the system really just taking shape and a cold front still over north Florida, the convection should remain isolated and confined to the afore mentioned area.
A cold front will work its way through the southeast US. Based the pops for the most part on the high resolution CAMs models.
This will allow the temperatures to fall into the the mid- to upper 20s in north- central and central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid-30s elsewhere. This will result in widespread frost and freezing temperatures. With an area of high pressure over the region, look for plenty of sunshine and the return of some warmer temperatures as highs push back into the 60s. An upper level system moving across central Canada will drag the equatorial side of its long wave trough across the Upper Midwest. A couple of short wave troughs look to rotate around the main upper level low and into the bottom of the trough.
907 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021 High pressure continues to ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico producing sunny skies and warm temperatures today. Pleasant conditions continue over the eastern gulf waters as high pressure remains in control through Saturday.
541 AM MDT Fri May 28 2021 Clouds decreased over the forecast area beneath a transitory mid- level ridge of high pressure overnight. However, expect clouds to increase again later in the day as rising temperatures generate cumulus over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies is expected to bring increased mid and high clouds to the northernmost zones later in the afternoon and into the evening.
Ridge axis is positioned across south FL today, putting central FL in southwesterly flow. Hot once again today with highs in the low/mid 90s inland, and upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the coast.
501 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises and cloud cover moves to the south. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected again tonight. Freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as cloud cover reduces. Highs today are expected to be in the high 50s and lower 60s as an upper level ridge settles over the Northland. However, these clear conditions along with subsidence overnight could cause temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Chances for precipitation return over the weekend as the ridge moves off and a trough moves east through Canada to replace it.
Early this morning a cold front was pushing its way through the area and should be east of the area during the early morning hours. Meanwhile, an upper level low will rotate across southern Wisconsin today, carving out a trough all the way into Missouri. This low will then shift eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs ranging from the just the lower 60s in central Missouri, to the lower 70s in south central Missouri and lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s.
Satellite imagery shows stratus sinking south as the nearby upper closed low swings toward the Great Lakes. Despite a chilly start this morning with lows in the upper 30s to 40s, today will be warmer than yesterday. Highs will remain 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal values as anomalously cool mid level air lingers, but light winds due to strong surface ridging and increasing sunshine should make it feel warmer. Temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s again, slightly warmer in the west where cloud cover moves in sooner. Over Memorial Day Weekend, a northern stream upper longwave trough meanders through the Northern Plains and brings rain chances with seasonably cool air.
A dry cold front will cross northern Utah today before stalling across central Utah Saturday.
and Saturday Scattered light rain across central and east central Wisconsin will end this morning as the upper low exits the southern part of the state. Highs today will be much warmer than yesterday, but still about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Further east it will be in the low to mid 30s. Saturday will still be a bit cooler than normal, but with sunny skies and light winds.
Based on the progged track of the minor upper level trof, pops for today are highest overall in the southern TX Panhandle and lowest across the central and eastern OK Panhandle and far nern TX Panhandle. The primary severe weather threat will be focused across the higher terrain of eastern NM and parts of west Texas south of our area where better instability and shear values reside.