Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front has pushed south across the Owl Creek Mountains into the northern Wind River Basin. a strong cold front will move south from Montana tonight and Monday bringing colder temperatures and higher humidity with north to northeast winds.
A potent low pressure system will move into the region bringing increasingly gusty winds and cooler temperatures to start the week.
713 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Initial cold front/wind shift pushing south toward Grand Forks to about Carrington with wind shift then extending more north from Grand Forks toward Hallock to east of Winnipeg. Challenge for the next 24 hours will be precipitation chances across the north western areas behind cold front moving NW to SE overnight. Strong cold front with minimal low level moisture is poised to push slowly across the area overnight with mid level stratus deck developing behind the front aided by a strong narrow band of 850mb to 600mb frontogenesis. Combined with clouds and NW winds will be 10to 20 degrees cooler for max temps monday compared to Sunday.
Cold front will be entering into the fcst area late in the day A very warm day across the region as temps at 2 pm were in the 90s across most of the plains. Storms across the higher terrain are expected to remain isolated. while 30s and 40s will occur over the higher terrain. A strong cold front will be moving down towards the region but will likely not reach the fcst area (Palmer Divide) until late in the afternoon. Guidance came in with less precip across the higher terrain tomorrow and have backed off on pops.
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A cold front stallS along the Carolina coast tonight and Monday.
1146 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A dry and stable environment will exist through the TAF period as high pressure maintains control. This high will remain the dominant influence on weather over Southeast Michigan through Monday, keeping conditions dry and quiet. Good radiating conditions tonight will provide temperatures a few degrees cooler than last night, and even a few degrees below normal, as we fall to near 50 for most locations. The Detroit heat island will remain slightly warmer in the mid 50s, however.
735 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cooler and drier air on tap for tonight. High pressure to start the work week.
1109 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Large upper trough of low pressure will continue to dig throughout the western U. On Monday, the western upper trough continues to remain in the far western U. with a strong positive tilt, and a northern trough moves southeastward into southern Canada. Slow moving cold front will move eastward across the forecast area, with winds becoming rather strong behind the front in the 20 to 35 mph throughout our western zones. The low level moisture continues to be mainly bottled up along and behind the cold front, with the crucial 850-700mb layer remaining rather dry throughout the day. Therefore only slight chance or chance pops are warranted with the cold front, and primarily in the afternoon.
There is generally good consensus amongst the global models that the trough will continue to track northwest along the Bahamas Islands chain over the next day or so and could be in the vicinity of the northwest Bahamas around 18z Monday then maybe off the coast of Palm Beach and Martin counties Monday night, but need to stress the uncertainties.
517 PM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Current surface map places cold front from far northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front will enter northwest South Dakota and northeast Wyoming this evening and then through the rest of western South Dakota overnight. Period of gusty northwest winds behind cold front with 3-hour pressure rises of 4-6mb. Much cooler on Monday with extensive cloud cover.
Regional radars show convection firing along a cold front draped across central portions of AL and GA as well as along the Big Bend sea breeze. We've seen the last of low in the 60s for a while Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s, with some mid 70s south of I-10.
943 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Skies have cleared across our entire CWA late this evening thanks to strong high pressure and plenty of dry air over Michigan. Overview: Large expanse of high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast leading to quiet weather overall. Temps may run a bit warmer across the northern and western part of the CWA thanks to increasing winds off the surface. Increasing SW flow will usher in warmer air and kick daytime highs into the mid and upper 70s, and a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the second half of September.
Also, could have some inland fog along the Highway 77 corridor Monday night (should be patchy as moisture advection is not that strong).
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
Huffman A stalled cold front offshore will dissipate this afternoon.
A system will drop down from the north and bring cooler than normal temperatures to our region over the next several days.
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley places our area in weak WAA with southerly flow in the low levels.
649 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 The week ahead will turn much cooler due to a cold front that will come through on Monday and Monday night. Extra lift was supplied by a strong short wave that was ejected from the deep long wave trough digging into the southwest. The cold front will move out northwest Wisconsin Monday evening.
949 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure will move eastward across the region overnight then reach the New England coast by Monday evening.
A trough is laying across the Deep South with an upper level perturbation over the Bahamas and a ridge axis between the two.
Cold front pushes into the CWA sometime toward Monday afternoon.
721 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Breezy southerly winds have helped temperatures return to the 80s in most spots this afternoon as warmer and more moist air continues to advect across the region. This is in response to a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure deepens on the lee side of the Rockies ahead of the next disturbance. likely in the lower 60s at most locations early Monday morning. Expect this next cold front to be rapidly approaching the local area during the morning hours tomorrow. with the pre-frontal trough crossing the local area by mid morning.
high pressure shifts further east allowing for breezy southerly winds to develop over the CWA with some possible high clouds pushing in toward the end of the TAF period. Forecast lows should stay warmer than last night and above the crossover temp, so there shouldn't be a repeat of the fog observed in NW AR this morning.
1154 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure will continue to push east across the Ohio Valley this evening, resulting in a steady southeast breeze across the region as the surface pressure gradient tightens slightly. Temperatures tonight will not be as cool as last night, though still pleasant, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s east to low 60s west. The period starts off with a flat ridge in the upper levels over the southern states and an upper level trough moving southward out of Western Canada. The upper level trough will eventually break into two with the southwestern portion becoming cut off over the CA-NV border while the remainder continues eastward towards the Great Lakes.
An area of low pressure currently over the western Dakotas will slowly track eastward tonight. This low will bring a cold front into the region, along with gusty northerly winds.
As of 2z, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the HWY 84 corridor with mid-level zonal flow across the majority of the lower 48. The stronger convection was due in part to 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE in concert with steeper mid-level lapse rates behind the upper-level trough passage, moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary, positive ThetaE advection, and a subtle vort max to help increase forcing. After noon, scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop at JAN, HKS, MEI, and HBG as a cold front slowly pushes through the area.
After the passage of a relatively weak cold front last night, things are fairly quiet across the mid-state. Some high clouds are lingering, otherwise the biggest story is the drier air and cooler temperatures that have filtered into the region.
The southern areas were already seeing increasing showers as the lower atmosphere moisture had increased.
954 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure over Northern Indiana this evening will shift east off the New England coast by tomorrow night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 88 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 89 66 88 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 85 62 86 / 0 10 10 10.
/issued 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016/ A weak upper level high will move off to the east and mid level winds will be backing from a more southwesterly direction this week as a trough slowly develops over the western US.
728 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Aviation High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift east to the East Coast by Monday.
1240 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 A strong cold front has pushed off shore this evening.
705 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure will move eastward across the region overnight then reach the New England coast by Monday evening.
924 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A strong cold front has pushed off shore this evening.
655 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Large upper trough of low pressure will continue to dig throughout the western U. On Monday, the western upper trough continues to remain in the far western U. with a strong positive tilt, and a northern trough moves southeastward into southern Canada. Slow moving cold front will move eastward across the forecast area, with winds becoming rather strong behind the front in the 20 to 35 mph throughout our western zones. The low level moisture continues to be mainly bottled up along and behind the cold front, with the crucial 850-700mb layer remaining rather dry throughout the day. Therefore only slight chance or chance pops are warranted with the cold front, and primarily in the afternoon.
Forecast lows should stay warmer than last night and above the crossover temp, so there shouldn't be a repeat of the fog observed in NW AR this morning.
The high will slip away to the northeast U. Fog shouldn't form as lows will remain above crossover temperatures (afternoon dewpoint temperature) in the low 50s and little moisture return will take place overnight. The southern stream will carve out a significant trof/upper low over the western U.
Thermal ridge over the High Plains will translate eastward this afternoon and overnight as H850 temps rise to +20C in the west by 12Z Monday.
A cold front that moved across the region last night has become stationary south of the area, extending roughly from SW Mississippi, to just south of Montgomery and Atlanta. Somewhat cooler conditions prevailed across the central Tennessee Valley this evening, with mid evening temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70, with light northerly winds. Overnight low temperatures should cool into the mid/upper 50s over southern Middle Tennessee and cooler spots in NE Alabama, to the lower 60s south of the Tennessee River.
The threat will be somewhat alleviated on Saturday with the cooler temps and relative humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range versus the 20 to 30 percent range.
There will be a break in the precipitations Saturday that will travel from SW to NE as well, then another slightly stronger trough will move in from the SW Saturday afternoon and overnight. Anywhere from 2 to 6 inches is expected above about 7500 ft in the San Juan mts and the highest peaks of the La Sals.
The closed upper low tracking northeast over the Red River Valley today will move into the Mississippi Valley by midday Saturday. In the wake of this low, the central High Plains will see a short wave ridge build over the region tonight and Saturday. A weak cold front is expected to push into west central Kansas later tonight in response to an upper disturbance tracking across the northern Plains this evening. Given the light winds and clear skies, have lowered overnight lows a few degrees and more in line with the cooler MAV MOS guidance.
Stronger southerly flow arriving ahead of the approaching upper low will trend gusts into the 20 to 25kt range all terminals aft 19Z.
Upper low over eastern OK is pulling much deeper moisture into the mid state, with rain and MVFR cigs developing after 12Z and lasting for most of the day.
Water vapor loop indicated a trough from northern MN to southwest Ontario. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over the Red River Valley and extended into MAN. Thermal ridge axis will shift east ahead of weak frontal passage this evening associated with short wave. A bit cooler column tomorrow however with shrinking snow pack, surface westerly flow and expected solar temperatures will still range well above normal although record highs may not be in the works.
/Issued 251 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ Increase in mid/high clouds ahead of approaching upper low has held temps down just a bit. The upper low will move through southeast OK/western AR later tonight.
326 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track north of the area tonight.
During the next 24-36 hrs, we see Low pressure lift across the Red River valley, with associated moisture advecting northward/up the Mississippi valley, and chance cat pops spread across the Quad State tmrw. Altogether, the pcpn is light qpf, as the Low tracks across our southern border. Afterwards, high pressure ridging moves in.
Deeper moisture seen ahead of the negative tilted trough in the Western Gulf will surge north tonight with light rain and perhaps some isolated thunder developing around midnight. slightly cooler highs tomorrow.
Lower level temps are a bit lower behind this system, and with weaker winds and a slightly more moist airmass in place, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Lee troughing develops late in the day and southerly winds increase off the surface through the night.
302 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind a cold front which moved through on Friday, but we are still looking for highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal with readings averaging in the 60s.
346 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A weak cold front will move southeast into our area today and then stall out and dissipate tonight.
1240 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure will build across the region this afternoon and tonight. A weak low pressure system will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross northern Maine Saturday night. Orgnl Disc: Winds will gradually die off this evening as the high pressure builds. This presents a challenge in terms of tonight's lows as a narrow window of radiational cooling develops between the time winds decrease and upper level clouds increase ahead of an approaching warm front late tonight. A band of thicker upper level clouds well ahead of the surface warm front will cross the forecast area Saturday morning and may even include a brief burst of snow showers for northern zones by late morning. Low pressure is expected to approach the region from the northwest Saturday Evening then move across the area late at night.
1025 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 Current surface map places trof across the eastern Dakotas.
442 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Wind shear will abate early in the forecast period due to the coincident weakening of the low-level wind field and deepening of the diurnal mixed layer. As of 08Z this morning, the sfc warm front was approaching the thumb region. The warm front will clear the forecast area early this morning.
339 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A wave of low pressure will pass offshore this evening and tonight.
With cooler mid-level temps and some increased instability this will be the best chance for thunderstorm development.
Another mild night in store for the area tonight, with above freezing temps holding across the south, and a little cooler to the north.
Upper level low was located along the Red River with some showers showing up on regional radar loop across eastern Oklahoma.
339 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure will continue to build over the area from the southeast today.
346 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions.
258 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Water vapor shows upper low currently centered over eastern OK with an area of showers in west Central AL pushing north. Rain amounts should be generally on the low side under one quarter inch. Clouds and showers will keep highs in check today with values ranging from the mid 50s on the plateau to the low 60s toward the Tennessee River. Upper ridging will quickly follow the upper low and by tomorrow afternoon the ridge axis will be overhead. Highs for much of the area tomorrow will reach into the low 70s.
335 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Get out and enjoy as upper ridging will give us a quiet, warm day today with temperatures well above normal. An upper trough along the West Coast will continue to move east today after dropping heavy rain and snow across CA.
1241 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure will build across the area through tonight into early Saturday. A wave of low pressure will pass offshore late Saturday and Saturday night.
1252 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure slides offshore of the Southeast coast overnight into Saturday.
1154 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will lift NE across the area tonight ushering in spring like conditions. Warm front over the SW part of the forecast area will move NE across the area the rest of the night. A weak but dry cold front will push south across the forecast area Saturday. as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS.
1007 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Large storm system continues to move into CA this evening with southerly flow aloft ahead of the trough spreading moisture and precipitation north through the Great Basin and eastern ID.
241 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will push east through the region today and will be quickly followed by a weak cold front this evening.
/Issued 435 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ Fairly tranquil weather with above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday over the fcst area as upper level ridging prevails in advance of the next upper level low pressure system slated for late this weekend.
Mostly clear skies continued this morning across much of the region as a dry air mass remains situated overhead, along with mid- to upper-level ridging.
Upper low was observed via water vapor imagery rotating through Oklahoma, lifting mid level moisture into southeast Kansas. Ahead of this weak boundary, temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s while dewpoints mixed down into the lower 30s. For tonight, winds calm, becoming light and variable as a ridge axis drifts southward into northern KS. Potent, incoming upper trough across California will shift the upper low northeast and therefore increase cloud cover towards southeast Kansas Saturday morning. These clouds should dissipate as the low exits into Missouri during the afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies and light winds across the CWA. Highs may be slightly cooler, given the weaker winds, however still well above normal in the upper 60s.
956 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 Large storm system continues to move into CA this evening with southerly flow aloft ahead of the trough spreading moisture and precipitation north through the Great Basin and eastern ID.
A dry southwest wind has developed this afternoon as the upper level low pulls away from the area. Low level flow and moisture will increase Saturday night as the trough to the west approaches.
342 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Cloudy, mild and occasionally rainy conditions to prevail across the Midsouth today, under a slow moving upper level low.
An upper level low out over the southern Plains can be seen tonight on IR imagery. As this upper level low drifts eastward today, the disorganized area of storms will continue to push into and across our forecast area.
329 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure slides to the east today, putting the North Country in south to southwest flow.
Upper level system beginning to work into the area this morning as we remain well north of a warm front and well south of a cold front.
323 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track north of the area tonight.
256 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Early morning surface analysis indicated that the weak cold front had settled south of the CWA in northern MO/KS.
1007 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 Another mild afternoon over southern Colorado as upper level ridge hangs on for one more day across the Rockies. Still waiting for first piece of the deep western trough to reach the Continental Divide, with radar and obs suggesting most precip this afternoon still fairly far west over Utah/nrn Arizona. Overnight, mid level flow gradually becomes more swly across the region as upper low pushes onshore across California. On Sat, low and mid level S-SW flow increases as upper low pushes into wrn AZ by late afternoon. Slight increase in 700 mb temps looks to be offset by increased cloud cover, leading to max temps near or just slightly cooler than Fri maxes.
Upstream over Minnesota, no stratus or even patches of dense fog developed under the upper ridge. Still possible a band of stratus may develop due to convergence as the trough slides over but likely would be minimal at this time when considering upstream ground truth.
The clouds will be produced by a an upper level low pressure system that will track across the Ozarks region today.
316 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 A deep upper level trough currently over Southern California will produce ridging over the Nation's midsection today with warm temperatures continuing.
An upper low will continue moving over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with any rain chances remaining well east of the region. Model consensus suggests increasing rain and embedded thunderstorm chances areawide Sun evening, lingering into Mon over far eastern Kansas, as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest warm and quiet weather will likely continue Tue-Wed, as upper ridging builds over Mid- America. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Upper low is currently situated over eastern OK and is quickly moving into the Ozark region. The Plains will quickly get back into return flow as a deep upper trough slowly tracks over the western CONUS.
417 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area today.
An upper level low will move in today bringing in the chance for showers.
1250 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 An upper level trough will approach from the west and cross the southeastern U.
327 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure moves off the southeast coast today.
953 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017 The afternoon water vapor loop showed upper lows over the southern Great Plains and off the CA coast. The eastern Pacific trough will amplify further as it slowly moves inland through Saturday. The higher mountains may receive a couple inches of snow.
1232 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Aviation A warm front will move north through Lower Michigan tonight and set the stage for a few days of mild weather.
/issued 850 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/ IR and Water Vapor Imagery showing our upper low spinning across the Middle Red River Valley of Southern Oklahoma into Northeast Texas.
As of 08Z this morning, the sfc warm front was approaching the thumb region. The warm front will clear the forecast area early this morning.
325 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area today.