Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Unfortunately, the current synoptic set-up of lower heights, pressures, moisture ridge are all better positioned over this region, another reason to watch and wait on current FFA. With upper trough close in the vicinity, rain chances can't be ruled out at any particular time, but suspect we'll probably see a somewhat typical diurnal trend with precip redevelopment near the coast after midnight followed by inland activity during the day.
826 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. With temps already in the lower 90s and heat index values hovering either side of 100. shifting into the Lowlands early this evening. This in association with some deeper moisture advecting in from the SW around the ridge. Upper level ridging overhead continues.
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. With temps already in the lower 90s and heat index values hovering either side of 100. shifting into the Lowlands early this evening. This in association with some deeper moisture advecting in from the SW around the ridge. Upper level ridging overhead continues.
Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a closed middle level low pressure system will over Southeast Texas and West Central Louisiana will keep the precipitation spreading to the West and Northwest around its center. /issued 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ Convection beginning to develop along moisture axis around the wrn periphery of the upper ridge. In addition, convection associated with the low pressure system along the TX/LA Gulf coast has moved into our srn areas.
Temperatures are already down into the low to mid 70s across much of the area but they will probably not fall too much more given dewpoints are mainly running in the lower 70s. The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for Sunday in especially the southeast.
VFR and light easterly winds are expected overnight into Sunday morning as a large mid to upper level low is rotating across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An isolated shower could develop offshore of Padre island after midnight possible nearing the Lower Texas Coast around dawn Sunday with one or two moving inland Sunday afternoon.
600 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 SW flow remains in place across the plains with a mid-upper level trough still in place across the desert southwest.
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Large high pressure will continue to keep the region warm and dry through the first half of Sunday. Weak southerly flow will edge dewpoints upward overnight, and in turn, keep lows warmer than average.
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Northern MI on the edge of eastern US ridge. Area is in right entrance region of 110kt upper jet which is riding over the top of the ridge. Should continue to see lowering clouds and areas of fog as seen upstream cover the region before the low tracks NE of MI as well. Sunday high pressure moves in scouring out the low clouds in the morning. High pressure will remain centered over the Western Great Lakes region Sunday night.
Deep easterly flow persists overnight between ridge extending along the eastern seaboard and weak tropical wave/low pressure (Invest 99L) near the north coast of central Cuba. generating a gentle to moderate easterly breeze as it interacts with a hi pres ridge over the eastern CONUS.
917 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will build across the region this evening then move to the east Sunday.
/issued 302 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ Minor trough in light southwest flow was evident on water vapor imagery from about Dalhart south to Wink and should continue to foster some storm development through the afternoon. Other than a thermal ridge enhancing vertical mixing in the western Panhandle, the surface pattern itself is void of any focus for storms. This thunderstorm threat should amplify on Sunday as a rather impressive upper low draws closer from NW Arizona. Upper level jet energy will remain well north of the area for the first part of the extended as high pressure in the southeastern CONUS attempts to dominate the weather picture out that way. A few weaknesses are noted within the confines of the high most notably a relative low along the middle Texas coast.
935 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected under high pressure tonight. A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
745 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will persist over the region through the weekend.
713 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Weak low pressure over the Midwest during early evening will move toward Lake Superior during the night and pull a warm front north of lower Michigan. Rain-cooled evening temperatures favor MVFR fog by mid evening, dropping to IFR, and then transitioning to IFR stratus along and behind the trough where the wind field will be slightly stronger through Sunday morning. Westerly flow leading weak high pressure into the region will bring improvement to VFR early to mid Sunday afternoon.
High pressure remains situated to our east with weak circulation across Middle Tennessee.
914 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper low circulating over southeast Texas has enabled convection to sustain itself well after sunset this evening. For the update, did increase pops markedly across north central Louisiana and deep East Texas closer to the center of the upper low where storms where training earlier with showers ongoing at this time. Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a closed middle level low pressure system will over Southeast Texas and West Central Louisiana will keep the precipitation spreading to the West and Northwest around its center.
825 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.
Not totally sold on the idea of MVFR ceilings based on the east and northeast flow in the lowest levels. it appears RAP is underdoing the low level instability and lapse rates over the northern Hill Country and northwest towards Midland.
958 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure over the area tonight will move east into the Atlantic on Sunday and create a cool onshore breeze over coastal areas. A cold front arriving from the west will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night with high pressure building in behind the front through midweek.
A cold front that is currently across southern IN/IL/MO will be pushing east through the day, and will be the main focus of showers and thunderstorms for our area this afternoon and evening. Some post- frontal precip will be possible as the surface front outpaces the midlevel trough axis, and low to slight chance pops will continue after midnight.
358 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Upper level ridge that encompassed most of the southeastern United States continues to compress and weaken as a trough tracks east across the high plains towards the Great Lakes. The weakening of the ridge and lowering of surface pressure will allow for scattered convection to develop and become slightly more widespread today. Surface analysis shows a cold front associated with the upper trough tracking southward across central texas and central Arkansas. The cold front will slowly sag southward towards the Gulf of Mexico tonight but stall in the vicinity of the coast as the upper low to the north stalls over its Great Lakes position.
This regime prevails south of a weak low-level anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. Air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the lower 80s, with temperatures as low as the mid 70s in some island interior locations like Big Pine Key.
A cold front will cross the region from west to east this morning, exiting our Blue Grass counties around lunchtime. Trailing the surface front will be the corresponding 5H trof axis and vorticity ribbon which will sweep out the last of the showers this afternoon. High pressure nosing in behind the departing front will bring dry and pleasant weather tonight and Tuesday. a little warmer in urban cores.
132 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east across the region tonight then move off the coast Monday. A cold front moving into the area tonight will stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
357 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Temperatures marginal for the frost advisory with readings mainly in the lower to mid 40s but there are some mid 30s across the Palmer Divide and over the Northeast plains as well so will keep the advisory in place as expect a bit more cooling before sunrise. Building high pressure over the Western Great Basin will keep a moderate Northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
An upper ridge will take hold of the northern Rockies through Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. The forecast will be dry with the ridge in place.
419 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will move east across the region today, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will move in behind the front tonight and Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds and the threat for showers. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase across the western zones through sunrise as a cold front approaches from the west. A large scale mid level trough will close off as it slowly digs southward into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s, which is typical for late September.
110 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 High pressure over New England will depart to the east tomorrow. A strong cold front will move across the area on Monday bringing a transition to below normal temperatures. An upper level low will linger over the region through mid-week. As the upper low starts to dive se toward the area later tonight. The cold front will move east across the area on Monday and is expected to clear the northwest Pennsylvania counties by mid- afternoon. Shower activity should get a boost in coverage by mid-day from a combination of daytime heating and lift ahead of the deep trough pivoting in from the west. This cold front ushers in the coolest airmass of the fall thus far with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s through mid-week.
111 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of cold front Monday. Quiet night expected ahead of an approaching cold front currently analyzed over Indiana. Deeper moisture manifesting itself as stratus will likely hold east of the ridges however in the weak easterly surface flow. A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday.
337 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week. A strong cold front will move across the region through the day. Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday. Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect showers developing around Erie.
Temperatures behind this front will be noticeably cooler, as 850 mb temperatures plummet to the low single digits above zero. The low associated with this front will remain situated over the northwestern Great Lakes for the next few days, causing a very tight pressure gradient across the western Great Lakes.
413 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Noticeably cooler air is pouring into North Texas, but the frontal passage has yet to bring an end to the rain.
422 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Cold front entered our northwest CWA early this morning and is now just south of I-30 with a few showers developing invof the front during the past hour. Due to the lack of deep layer moisture and limited upper level support, have maintained lower pops despite the presence of this front which should continue to slow its forward progress as it encounters some resistence due to weak ridging still present to the east.
High pressure will build in from the west beginning Monday night, moving into Tuesday. An area of low pressure will begin to take shape at the same time off southern California coast and start to advect moisture into the southwestern States and the southern Rockies.
Strong high pressure aloft over the region will promote warmer than normal temperatures across the coast and interior again today. A gradual cooling trend is expected by mid week as the high pressure weakens. One more day of strong high pressure aloft and associated offshore flow is expected with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures again this afternoon.
Latest subjective surface analysis indicates the cold front has reached a line from near Mountain Home, to Mena. The surface and upper high pressure systems have moved east, and a cold front in northeast OK and south-central MO slow moves southeast. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter into AR behind the front, and take lows down mainly into the 50s, while highs mostly into the 70s.
Late in the week and into the weekend a broad area of low pressure will become anchored over the Ohio River Valley and will bring unsettled weather to the region. Many areas are still in the mid 30s but should continue to drop as dew points are in the lower 30s. A good part of the north country and the foothills are already below freezing. High pressure passes overhead today and moves into the Gulf of Maine tonight. An occluded front associated with strong low pressure near the Great Lakes region will approach today. As winds turn southerly and the low progresses moisture and clouds will return.
It is hard to depict where the cold front currently is as north winds are primarily prevailing throughout Texas which can make a surface analysis quite messy. Temperature and pressure data suggest the actual cold front with cooler temperatures is somewhere around our northern CWA border. With north winds in place ahead of the cold front we have lost our potential for local enhancements associated with the frontal convergence along the boundary. The southwestern counties have not seen as much rain as other parts of the CWA and there is nothing to suggest additional heavy rain will develop in that region in any of the high-res model guidance. Temperatures this afternoon will remain pretty steady in the 60s and 70s behind the cold front and under continued cloud cover and rain.
312 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Water vapor imagery along with RAP 500mb analysis showing a deep trough extending south across MN/IA. deep low pressure around 999mb over southern Ontario with a cold front extending southward through western Lower MI into Indiana. Cooler air filtering into the region this morning on westerly winds with temperatures as of 3 am ranging from the upper 40s to the middle 50s. deep cyclonic flow with tight pressure gradient will reside over the region for cooler/blustery conditions. Otherwise, look for highs ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Deep cyclonic flow lingers over the region as the closed low moves farther southward into Indiana. another slightly cooler than normal day on tap with highs in the 60- 65 degree range.
Rainfall should diminish by midnight, and think POPs overnight may be a bit on the high side. Main thing is that it will be cooler over the next two days, especially high temperatures.
214 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 High pressure will cross the region today with plenty of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures. High pressure will build across the region from Labrador by mid week. High pressure will continue to build across the region early today and then move off the New england coast this afternoon. An upper low across the northern Great Lakes will drop slowly south through the period.
Winds will diminish after sunset this evening as low pressure continues to move away from the region. Another chilly night in store for eastern areas Tuesday night with the ridge axis still in place. Went a bit cooler over the east and believe temps could even get a few degrees cooler. Upper ridging over the Plains will keep high temperatures in the 70s through the extended.
High pressure will bring one last day of summer-like weather today before a cooler weather pattern returns Tuesday. Low clouds and morning fog should produce cooler temperatures midweek before a wet and cool weather system brings unsettled weather to the area late in the work week and over the weekend.
344 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will swing through this morning bringing a period of rain. Breezy and mostly sunny conditions can be expected by this afternoon as much drier and cooler air overspreads.
305 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A quasi-stationary front across southwestern NC will return north as a warm front tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Rain showers will accompany a strong cold front tonight into early Monday morning. Cooler and drier air will settle in Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s to around 70 and a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
A persistent low pressure system will bring gusty winds today, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through midweek.
422 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 The weekend low was pulling away from the area as high pressure ridging moved in. For tonight, with light wind, a clear sky, and forecast dew points in the lower to mid 30s will expect patchy frost. At this point the lowest forecast low temperature is 36 so we'll not expect frost to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.
1205 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 After a busy end to last week, this week starts off very pleasant as high pressure builds in bringing a return to sunny skies and warmer temperatures. While we experience this weather today, a weak upper level disturbance will carve out a closed low over the Arizona, New Mexico, and old Mexico border. This low won't pose any threat to us in the short-term but will mid-week onwards. Tuesday will bring one more day of sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region as the area of low pressure slowly moves northward.
155 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Tranquil early fall weather will persist through Monday, as a large area of Canadian high pressure crosses the region.
646 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will move east across the region today, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will move in behind the front tonight and Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds and the threat for showers. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase across the western zones through sunrise as a cold front approaches from the west. A large scale mid level trough will close off as it slowly digs southward into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s, which is typical for late September.
Clouds will be slow to clear across southeastern sections, due to residual low-level moisture closer to departing cold front.
341 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 Clear skies are being reported across the forecast area this morning as high pressure continues to build over the Western United States. Under these clear skies temperatures have fallen into low to mid 30s over the high terrain and 40s to lower 50s at many of the valley locations. The models build the 500MB ridge of high pressure to 588DM over Eastern Utah and Colorado today with 700MB temperatures reaching 71 degrees over Grand Junction.
High pressure remains in place over the southeast at the lower levels with a weak upper low over north FL.
626 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will swing through this morning bringing a period of rain. Breezy and mostly sunny conditions can be expected by this afternoon as much drier and cooler air overspreads.
621 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week. A strong cold front will move across the region through the day. Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday. Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect showers developing around Erie.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with the warmest temperatures over the California and Oregon Coasts pointing northward into a ridge that runs into southern British Columbia and northern Alberta. This and a trough to the east has placed northeast Montana under northwest flow aloft. Farther west a second trough is developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tuesday: Ridge will move eastward across eastern Montana.
Upper high pressure will keep moisture suppressed well to south. The airmass over Colorado will be a little warmer than yesterday.
358 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today.
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of cold front Monday. Quiet night expected ahead of an approaching cold front currently analyzed over Indiana. Deeper moisture manifesting itself as stratus will likely hold east of the ridges however in the weak easterly surface flow. A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday.
304 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will move east today. A cold front will pass through from the west Tuesday night.
149 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Aviation A strong cold front will move across the state tonight and set the stage for much cooler weather for this week.
No significant change in the weather through Tuesday with an Upper level ridge over the Intermountain West.
655 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week. A strong cold front will move across the region through the day. Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday. Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect showers developing around Erie.
Tonight Through Monday Dry high pressure will be over the area tonight and Monday.