Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect clear skies tonight along with cooler temperatures in the early morning hours. Temperatures at 2pm remain in the upper 70s at Corning, AR and Malden, MO with expected highs in the low to middle 80s. A weak broad ridge will continue to shift over the region through the work week resulting in slightly warmer temperatures. The weak ridge and warmer temperatures will likely result in increasing chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend. A couple of impulses tracking to our north through zonal may help to induce a few weaknesses in the ridge further enhancing showers and thunderstorms.
Heaviest activity is still expected to occur mainly across the local Gulf waters and the coastal regions, but will be dependent on how the low pressure located over the NW Gulf evolves.
As we go throughout the day today, south and south-southwest surface winds will be established across all of the Panhandles as the main thermal ridge builds across west Texas. With latest 29/12Z model and numerical data shows H850 temperatures rebounding to +25C to +28C across the region under the thermal ridge along with enhanced downward momentum from the NM high terrain, high temperatures will get into the 90s for all of the Panhandles, with some areas close to 100 degrees in the northern Panhandles.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend. Nudged temperatures slightly to account for current observations and trended them slightly cooler for the overnight. Upper level ridging takes center stage on Thursday with the continuation of dry weather along with a rise in surface temperatures. A warm front glides northward Thursday night, bringing the return of at least an isolated chance of showers initially, then becoming more active for the first day of July. As a cold front marches into the Ohio Valley for the end of the work week, the forecast area permeates within an unstable airmass that will spark convection. An active holiday weekend looks to be in store for the Central Appalachians as a cold front drops down from the Great Lakes.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will shift across the state today for continued warm conditions. With an upper low off the Pacific Northwest moving onshore, increasing southwest flow will induce weak lee cyclogenesis and thunderstorm development over the mountains of south central Montana. Trough itself skirts by to the north on Wednesday and Thursday. A second cold front drops south on Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a brief shot at some showers along the Canadian border. Another ridge moves into the area to start off the 4th of July weekend bringing continued dry conditions and above average temperatures. Our next shot at rain could be on the 4th of July itself as a trough off the West Coast places us under a southwesterly flow aloft and draws in some Pacific moisture.
For tonight, the weak tropical low will move closer to the lower Texas coast and some shower associated with this system may approach our southeastern counties by sunrise.
Quiet conditions will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft moves east across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Thunderstorm chances return to portions of western Kansas Thursday night as medium range models continue to show a weak upper level trough quickly swinging through the Northern Plains with an attendant cold front projected to push southeast into western Kansas sometime late Thursday evening.
A strong 595 dam ridge remains in place over the Desert Southwest, extending poleward into Alberta and Saskatchewan with northwesterly flow aloft feeding across the Midwest into the trough over the eastern CONUS. As the trough moves east along the US/Canada border, attendant surface pressure falls will follow suit. As the warm front lifts into the area today, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly across north MS.
A low moving inland in the Pacific Northwest along the Canadian border is pushing the high over the Great Basin southeast to the Four Corners area, ideal for pulling the 50F dew points north into Utah and east into northern and central Colorado. With the steering flow controlled by the high to the south, expect slow moving and possibly training storms in eastern Utah and Western Colorado, increasing concerns for possible flash flooding. The continued progression eastward of the high on Thursday will allow moisture to advect north throughout the day.
Warmer and more humid today with a small chance of showers/storms in southern sections. Model moisture profiles show southern sections maintaining deeper moisture today, but with weak forcing and instability near the inverted trough.
Tonight and Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms will move south across the area during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
Lows tonight remain on track to only dip into the lower to middle 70's with upper 70's along the coast.
Midday satellite loop showed cumulus clouds over much of the region, with thunderstorms popping over the higher terrain from Rachel to Mount Charleston to Mount Trumbull. The clouds were rotating clockwise around high pressure centered near the NV/UT/AZ triple point. Surface obs showed temperatures a few degrees above normal for late June, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s in the lower elevations well southeast of I-15 to the mid 30s farther west, farther north, and at higher elevations. Wednesday gets a bit interesting as mid level low pressure moving along the Canadian border could generate just a bit of shear to go along with the thermodynamics, possibly leading to better organized, longer lived storms than what occurs today.
The front will have more or less washed out by tomorrow, but deep moisture will remain entrenched within the broad upper ridge over the region.
1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will provide fair weather to central Illinois through at least Thursday.
Ridging from out of the east will continue to hold the frontal boundary in a stationary position off to the north, with a weak steering flow persisting for the forecast area. High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s for locations closer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline. An inverted trough will move in towards the region on Thursday, with a very small area of drier air preceding its arrival inland. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be in the lower 70s through Thursday.
A weakening and slowing cold front will follow for the early morning hours. However high pressure will build in and make for a quiet day with an onshore wind. High pressure will shift east Wednesday night with a return flow getting underway and a surge of 850/925 waa.
SELY flow around Bermuda high pressure will mark a return of more typical summertime heat and humidity to end the week and into the holiday weekend. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Subsidence in the wave of the exiting trough, coinciding with BL cooling/stabilization should bring an abrupt end to rain chances around sunset. Underneath increasingly heights aloft as a ~592dm anticyclone builds over the region, the quasi-stationary front becomes increasingly diffuse and difficult to identify.
Under abundant sunshine, high temps wl be a few degrees warmer, ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Moreover, a deep upper low continues to track northeast into northern Washington and southern British Columbia with stronger winds aloft. Overnight, the marine layer is expected to re-strengthen, though winds aloft will be weaker as the low moves east and weaker zonal flow moves overhead. Zonal flow turns to slight ridging aloft on Thursday.
At the same time, upper level ridging will build northward overhead with heights rising several decameters through the day. Exception will be our northwest counties where drier air will linger most of the day due to the slow progression of this pseudo warm front. By tomorrow, deep moisture will finally spread through the entire area into Kentucky as the upper ridge becomes entrenched overhead, with dewpoints rising into the 60s/70s and PWATS reaching around the 1.
336 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure over the region will move east today. A weak cold front then approaches from the north tonight.
254 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Overview: An upper level ridge. Expect dry conditions and a continued warming trend via height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned ridge aloft. Pressure falls associated with a diurnally-driven thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies will result in modest tightening of the MSLP/H85 height gradient over eastern CO and western KS. Winds are unlikely to be stronger than 20-30 knots beneath the ridge -- where vertical wind profiles weaken with height (in the mid-levels).
1147 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Upper ridging building in from the west combined with increasing southerly low-level flow will support a return to above normal temperatures Thursday, with widespread 90s likely.
Afternoon cumulus clouds will blossom into showers and thunderstorms over the high mountainous terrain, but storms should be very sparse and often isolated. Fewer storms are expected through Thursday with warmer temperatures and more abundant sunshine.
151 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through tonight. A cold front moves across Michigan and Ontario tomorrow but remains just north of the local area.
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure overhead keeping the winds light and conditions still relatively comfortable. Temperatures are currently running in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s amid light northeast winds, most places. Today is shaping up to be another beautiful summer day as high pressure centered over southern Indiana dominates the area. Overnight, a ridge/valley split will develop with valleys dropping into the mid 50s while ridge stay closer to 60. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as an upper level ridge axis moves over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and allows for clearing over the area.
Tonight Through Thursday TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Slight upper level ridging remains across the northern tier of the CONUS; whereas, across the Natural State upper level flow remains light and negligible for the most part. THURSDAY: The stationary front begins to lift northward transitioning into a warm front during the day on Thursday. As the warm front begins to near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, rain chances will increase throughout the day w/ the greatest opportunity for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the southern and eastern regions of the state on Thursday.
Watervapor imagery and RAP streamline/vort analyses show a well-defined, Q_stationary mid-upper low centered over the central FL straits early this morning. Will need to monitor radar trends later this morning, as POPs may need to bumped up to categorical from the southern Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee should banded convection organize along the trough axis. A trailing ridge axis will remain just north of FL keeping an E-SE wind flow across the area.
150 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A low amplitude trough over southern Alberta will push east across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. The forecast area will be under the right-entrance region of this trough today and Thursday. The high resolution models suggest the central and southern areas will have the best chance of convection today, and more confined to southern areas Thursday. A weak cold front will push south, east of the Divide today, but should wash out Thursday. Having said that, temperatures Thursday will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler east of the Divide, with only around 5 degrees cooler across the west and southwest.
Ridging aloft flattens somewhat across our forecast area, with an increase in low and mid level moisture. With a low and mid level theta-e ridge axis in the region, and with strong daytime heating, we will see an increase in afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage, particularly along and west of Interstate 25. Warmer temperatures expected per 700 mb temperatures near 14 Celsius. A near zonal, and almost stationary ridge will be in place over the intermountain west this holiday weekend.
It will take this and also high temps in the low 90s to have a chance for rising air parcels to break the surface cap and generate t-storms. Otherwise cooler with NW winds. The system triggering convection will shift east along with the surface trof and cooler air will wrap behind the system as it departs.
The sfc pattern is expected to feature a weak ridge centered over the Fall Line of the Carolinas and GA as a trough remains near the coast of GA/SC. A spoke of vorticity associated with the low may reach the coast and adjacent waters by daybreak Thursday. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 70s.
Weak upper trough axis moves through during the day. Minimal severe threat, but with the high pw content, heavy rainfall will be the main issue in any of the slower moving showers or storms. For Thursday, the upper trough will move off the coast, with guidance showing some ridging then building back into the area into Thursday night. Temperatures will turn a little bit warmer on Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s.
An embedded mid-level s/w trof will swing to the coast during this evening, helping to end the convection atleast inland locations during this evening. An upper ridge will approach from the west by daybreak Thu. Max Temps today will run in the low to mid 80s, generally a category below normal.
This process will flatten mid level heights and sweep a cold front through the area. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s in response to the front. Mid level heights continue to lower tonight and Thursday allowing for cooler air to sink deeper into the area. TWH The extended will be dominated by a resurgent ridge of high pressure across the western US. The ridge axis will run through Billings.
Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston, although pre-dawn convection could cool coastal areas more than what is currently depicted in the gridded and text forecast products. At the surface, a stalled cold front will remain positioned over the forecast area through Wednesday evening. Once the stalled cold front dissipates, models and WPC indicate that a weak coastal trough could form.
Another mild early morning was occurring across the CWA, with 2am temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, which is 5 to 9 degrees warmer than the past 24hrs. In their wake, increasing subsidence will bring mostly sunny skies and a warmer and slightly more humid air mass to the area. An 850mb thermal ridge will move over IA today, with 850mb temps rising around 19C by late this afternoon. In addition, dewpoints are progged to rise into the low to mid 60s which will make it noticeably more humid. Forecast soundings depict a convective temp in the lower 90s and show enough moisture that some diurnal Cu may develop this afternoon as well.
306 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The atmosphere looks to remain quiet for today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Expect sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s, near normal for this time of year. An upper trough digs into the northern plains Thursday, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge continues to build into the Southern Plains today, beginning the change-over to a more dry and gradually warming pattern. Afternoon highs today will climb a few more degrees into the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Heat indices will largely reach the 90s with the highest values over NW AL.
A weak upper trough sliding off the Mid- Atlantic states leaves behind a stagnant frontal boundary over the region to start the near term. However, the increased humidity off the warm Gulf waters pushes heat indices to the low 100s.
1116 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Overview: An upper level ridge. Expect dry conditions and a continued warming trend via height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned ridge aloft. Pressure falls associated with a diurnally-driven thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies will result in modest tightening of the MSLP/H85 height gradient over eastern CO and western KS. Winds are unlikely to be stronger than 20-30 knots beneath the ridge -- where vertical wind profiles weaken with height (in the mid-levels).
324 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. Warming trend gets underway with maxT rising +4 to +8F from yesterday with highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to the mid 80s over the south central ridge and valley region. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
Tomorrow will be hotter due to upper level high pressure strengthening slightly though values will still be near normal with highs mostly in the 90s.
250 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Current surface map places trough across western South Dakota. with weak cold front sliding into western South Dakota late in the day.
The forecast begins with an upper level ridge located over the Intermountain West and a trough near the Great Lakes, with northwest flow aloft. Wednesday, the upper ridge moves east over the northern and central Plains, leading to a continuation of the hot weather. Thursday the ridge will push further east, setting up zonal flow over the area. High temperatures will be hot once again, reaching the 90s in Nebraska and possible the low 100s in north central Kansas. A cold front will move into the area Thursday, bringing thunderstorm chances during the afternoon, evening, and possibly into the overnight hours as well.
353 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Mid-level high pressure was centered near the Four Corners early this morning according to RAP13 analyses and confirmed by observed cloud motion in IR imagery and shower returns from regional radar mosaic. The positioning of the high serves as an impediment to direct influx of subtropical moisture, though residual moisture combined with a more gradual influx from the West has kept precipitable water levels above climatological norms across the area. A low-amplitude mid-level short wave trough brushes the north this afternoon which is expected to favor increased coverage there compared to areas to the south. Temperatures will run near persistence, or a little warmer for most locations today, but timing and placement of showers/storms brings a wildcard to the mix.
521 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Current surface map places trough across western South Dakota. with weak cold front sliding into western South Dakota late in the day.
Southerly flow at the surface will lead to the warmest day of the week with highs reaching the mid 80s north to mid 90s south, and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s east. However, the cap may be a little weaker over north central parts of the state where lower level temperatures are a little cooler.
Upper-level ridging exits out of the state moving eastward, opening the doors for a more zonal flow to take over, resulting in strong, westerly winds to make way across North-central Montana today.
The upper level low over the Pacific Northwest is currently trekking northeastward into Canada. This brief disturbance has helped to keep the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere more mixed, making higher elevations 5 to 10 degrees cooler and generally wetter than 24 hours ago. Zonal flow will resume today as high pressure starts building in. This will be short-lived as an anomalous upper level trough is expected to come through the area this weekend, which will continue to further cool temperatures across the interior.
606 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge continues to build into the Southern Plains today, beginning the change-over to a more dry and gradually warming pattern. Afternoon highs today will climb a few more degrees into the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Our forecast area will stay dry and hot in the short term under a building upper level ridge.
532 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. Warming trend gets underway with maxT rising +4 to +8F from yesterday with highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to the mid 80s over the south central ridge and valley region. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
657 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
Spectacular morning with sunny skies and temperatures now in the low to mid 70s. Good radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds has allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s for most, with a few locations even dropping into the lower 40s. Overnight lows into Thursday morning are then expected to remain in the lower to mid 60s. Low level moisture will begin to increase Thursday across the region as a warm front lifts northward into central Kentucky. As low level lapse rates steepen during peak heating Thursday afternoon, we could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop across Tennessee and south-central Kentucky near the highest instability axis.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will increase through the week and will eventually get into at least the lower valleys. The ridge that brought us all of the heat will retreat to the east. More troffing and more onshore flow will occur both Thu and Fri.
Cold frontal penetration is not likely given eventual parallel flow and that boundary will be quickly washed out. Ridge building/warm advctn will continue through Thursday as a trough digs over the nrn Plains.
412 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Aloft, northern stream has become somewhat more progressive with upper ridging moving east of the Rockies and troughs along the west coast and moving across the Great Lakes and Appalachians toward the east coast. To the north of that boundary, high pressure extended from New England to Oklahoma with dew points mainly in the 50s and lower 60s. An area of low pressure continues over the western Gulf of Mexico, drifting westward.
An approaching inverted trough, located over the local coastal waters, will continue to move slowly northwestward across the FL peninsula through tonight. Mid-level troughiness will also combine with this feature to produce SCT-NMRS showers and SCT lightning storms across ECFL today. As previously mentioned in the last AFD, the low aloft remains generally stationary today, as its mid level (H50) reflection drifts north across the southern half of the peninsula. Inverted trough with mid-level support and increasing moisture will push into the area today. Increasing shower and storm chances spreading northward during the day and into tonight as a weak inverted trough pushes into the area.
537 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The atmosphere looks to remain quiet for today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Expect sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s, near normal for this time of year. An upper trough digs into the northern plains Thursday, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains.