Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While the best tornado chances will likely be from central Indiana into southwest Ohio (IND and ILN areas of responsibility), closer to the position of the warm front which is analyzed roughly from Terre Haute to Dayton at the time of this writing, there is still a chance of isolated tornadoes as far south as north central Kentucky where low level SRH has been increasing over the past few hours. Although a few cells have already developed in the south, the best window for severe will probably be later this afternoon into the early evening hours as a cold front approaches from the west and before instability begins to decrease after sunset. The weather will become uneventful behind the cold front tonight and into tomorrow as high pressure noses in from the northwest.
With high pressure in place, highs this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees above average, and are only expected to continue to climb through the end of the week. Outside of the higher terrain, Thursday afternoon will be hot, dry, and sunny.
Tranquil but hot and humid weather conditions will continue throughout the short term period as light to moderate onshore flow prevails and mid to upper level ridging continues to dominate the local pattern. Although maximum temperatures along the coasts will be in the low to mid 90s, heat indices could rise to 105- 109 at times. Minimum temperatures overnight into early morning hours will generally be in mid to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coasts.
Isentropic lift ahead of the low has already brought showers to southwest sections of the CWA, but it's fighting some dry air in the lowest 2 km per forecast and observed soundings. As the low treks into the Ohio Valley this afternoon moisture will continue to increase in the southern third of the CWA, as isentropic lift helps top-down saturation overcome the dry low levels, especially the further south one goes.
Forecast temperatures look pretty good, it could be a degree or two warmer if we do wind up with a minimum of cloud cover. We could see some cumulus buildups over the higher terrain with a couple sprinkles - perhaps an isolated weak storm at most in Park County. Highs return to above normal values Thursday with a shot at hitting the 90 degree mark over the lower elevations.
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Plains, with another sfc trof in the vicinity of the nrn Rockies. Temps area-wide are warmer than yesterday but still 5-10 F below climo. Low-level trof approaches the nrn Plains late tonight into early tomorrow AM, encouraging the development of a modest 30-35 kt LLJ directed nwd from the CO High Plains toward s cntrl SD. If updrafts manage to develop in this narrow unstable sector, the low-to- moderate CAPE will be coupled with deep-layer shear vector magnitudes of 50-60 kt, which would be supportive of a supercellular mode.
More dense bands of cloud cover have formed under the high pressure today to the northwest. Low temperatures, especially in areas northwest, may stay warmer due to these clouds. Highs tomorrow may be cooler depending on precip timing in the west. The residing high pressure today will continue to move east and begin to churn Gulf moisture northward tomorrow. Convection will initiate along an 850mb warm front draped across western Iowa and sink southeastward through the night.
Surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s across much of the area, pushing CAPE values up to 4000 J/kg.
The high will move east on Thursday and we'll begin to see return flow throughout the day.
Isolated to scattered showers will continue late this afternoon across central and southeast Illinois as the mid level trough rotates through the area.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 69 85 62 84 / 70 70 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 83 61 82 / 60 70 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 67 83 60 82 / 60 70 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 79 55 80 / 60 70 10 0 20.
A weak cold front will then cross the region on Thursday ushering in a drier air mass behind it.
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the coast on Thursday. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches. The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures will reach into the 70s and 80s on Thursday as high pressure strengthens.
1023 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this evening. Weak high pressure will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night.
Dry conditions and above average temperatures continue over the next few days as the ridge axis situated over the central U.
Also the upper low is closing off and going negative tilt over Lower Michigan into this evening.
511 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure.
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this evening, promoting showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night.
853 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure over Illinois will track through the Ohio Valley tonight with showers and thunderstorms along the cold front extending into the Tennessee Valley. The front will move offshore on Thursday followed by a break in the humidity and dry weather under high pressure.
1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Cold front moves through the area late tonight and offshore on Thursday followed by a break in the humidity and dry weather under high pressure.
Cooler and drier air will filter into the area after midnight but that push may be slow going overnight. However, still think Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s giving a nice break from the 70 dewpoints. A rainfree gorgeous day is in store for Thursday as sunshine and much drier air take residence giving us at least a nice one day break with Highs in the low 80s.
Activity is expected to decrease after sunset with drier and warmer conditions anticipated for Thursday.
548 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the coast on Thursday. In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures this evening remain mild with overnight lows in the lower 70s, which is only a few degrees cooler than current observations as of 02z.
/issued 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging building across the region through the short term period will continue to bring warm and dry weather to Deep South Texas.
745 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Quiet weather is expected tonight and Thursday, as high pressure drifts through the area.
Dry and warmer weather conditions are expected through the end of the week. Cooler and windier conditions with a chance of showers are forecast for this weekend. Broad upper ridging aloft will build across the area through the end of the week.
858 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this evening, promoting showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over Arizona, bringing hot temperatures through the weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations.
Even hotter temperatures can be anticipated through the weekend as high pressure aloft strengthens.
314 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly over the southern Sangres/Raton Mesa/Las Animas County region 2) Severe storm potential increases along and east of the mountains on Thursday, with the strongest storms near the Kansas border Currently, pool of cooler/drier/more stable air has spread over much of southeastern Colorado today in the wake of overnight cold frontal passage and MCS, with cumulus field limited to mainly the southern Sangres and the swrn mts. HRRR looks most aggressive with convection, as it has slightly deeper instability farther east, while other models keep activity closer to the higher terrain.
621 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Widespread rain, heavy at times, will move northeastward through the region tomorrow ahead of a low pressure system tracking just to our south.
1019 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure.
A cold front will move through tonight and high pressure will dominate on Thursday.
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 A cold front crosses the area today, then stalls across the southeastern states tonight. High pressure builds into the area Friday.
432 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 A weak cold front will cross the region today causing a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
These showers are fairly isolated with only the Lower Keys seeing these showers thus far. Meanwhile in the lower levels, the ridge axis of the subtropical ridge is slowly edging to the west from across the western Atlantic and Bahamas area.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has elongated a bit over the last 24 hours, and is now centered over the Texas Gulf coast. At the surface, the cold front has made it through all but the extreme lower Trans Pecos. CAMs develop convection on the periphery of the ridge this afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening in the Sacramento Foothills/Guadalupes. Friday, the ridge is forecast to recenter over AZ/NM, increasing thicknesses and pumping afternoon highs back into the triple digits most locations.
By 06z Friday, expecting most/all activity to clear the region allow for a warmup to begin going into Friday as an upper ridge over the Rockies begins an eastward trek.
We remain on the western fringe of the broader longwave trough that has held firm for several days as an upper level low stalled over Hudson Bay. The upper low will wobble southward today while sending the next trough axis through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a bubble of vorticity racing through the northwest flow putting it over Mid MI during peak heating this afternoon coincident with the trough. Strong low level lapse rates develop due to the thermal trough around 750mb dropping below 0C.
Late this afternoon, convection may again develop along the High Plains of eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico.
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this evening. Weak high pressure will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures will only rise into the lower to mid 70s over most of the CWA. High pressure builds in for Thursday night, allowing for partial clearing and lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Another embedded s/wv in the flow will help carve out a mid level trough over the Great Lakes. Clouds and pcpn will keep high temperatures on Friday below normal in the lower to mid 70s.
Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis at midnight Thursday depicts a rather weakly amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS, with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. At the surface, weak high pressure over the central plains will slide eastward during the day Thursday, allowing for the return of strong southerly winds as a lee trough develops in eastern CO. First, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of eastern CO and move southeast into southwest KS, where the environment will be characterized by 2000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kts of 0-6km bulk shear.
358 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Area is west-northwest flow at 500 mb with 500 mb ridging ongoing into eastern Montana into eastern Saskatchewan. There are a couple of 500 mb short waves that will come over that ridge and then southeast thru the area the next 48 hours. As for temps today, went toward the 75th percentile on temps, a tad warmer than strict NBM.
(Today and tonight) Expect temperatures to be a little cooler today and no heat hazards will be issued.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through the weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations.
1258 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the coast on Thursday. The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the low 90s.
The highest MUCAPE on the HREF was over the NE Bighorns on the order of 500-700 j/kg and the highest CAPE in the SE was 500 j/kg. A few thunderstorms will linger over the mountains early this evening, then the night will be dry under upper ridging.
The front is expected to return back NWD as a warm front on Friday. There will be enough instability generally S/W of the warm front for a few strong to severe storms with heating during the afternoon and evening hours Friday.
1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Temperatures are cooling faster than anticipated this evening as a weak cold front continues to seep southward through the region so did make adjustments to hourly temperature trends and the eventual overnight lows to bring them down a degree or two.
Most of the region is still under the influence of a large upper level ridge centered over TX. The upper level ridge is starting to slide off to the west, allowing for a mostly washed out frontal boundary to sag as far south as east central Louisiana.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the region through the period.
Discussion: Current observations show some lingering activity across the region as a cold front drapes from the southeast Great Lakes region and towards the KY/TN/VA border.
High pressure will keep it dry and slightly milder for Friday.
407 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 As of 08Z surface analysis, the cold front that was responsible for this evening's showers and thunderstorms is slowly crossing through the forecast area. Otherwise, high pressure is building in behind the departing front. High pressure will continue to be present over the area but upper- level flow will usher below average temperatures into the region through the end of the period. Fog will be possible tonight as the area is expected to be under clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures.
1128 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Quiet weather is expected tonight and Thursday, as high pressure drifts through the area. Isolated to scattered showers will continue late this afternoon across central and southeast Illinois as the mid level trough rotates through the area.
Cooler and drier air will filter into the area after midnight but that push may be slow going overnight. However, still think Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s giving a nice break from the 70 dewpoints. A rainfree gorgeous day is in store for Thursday as sunshine and much drier air take residence giving us at least a nice one day break with Highs in the low 80s. High pressure and some drier air will work in for Thursday. At any rate, looks like lows in the lower 60s and highs lower 80s.
Tonight and Thursday Light rain associated with upper trough will exit east central Wisconsin by early evening, but there will still could be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire area through the evening hours as a weak surface front moves through. Lows will be about five degrees cooler than average in most places.
The low clouds plus any patchy BR will burn off by mid to late morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain of eastern NM and southeast CO later this afternoon, then head into the OK and TX Panhandles by early this evening, with PROB30 groups included at both KGUY and KDHT.
A few showers still lingering around the area tonight as a surface cold front drapes from eastern Ohio into middle Tennessee. Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow morning as the cold front makes its passage.
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will build across the area today. Clouds will diminish this afternoon as weak high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level troughing remains entrenched on Friday night while a weak surface wave moves through the Ohio Valley.
418 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 A cold front exits east this morning yielding mainly dry conditions today and Friday. Farther south, a few showers and thunderstorms linger along convective outflow, with the surface cold front still working in the vicinity of the Ohio River. Aside from some lingering upslope showers, and perhaps a sprinkle or two out of some low-topped more vigorous cu (capped around H850-H800 as cold air undercuts the warm airmass in place) across the lowlands. Friday starts off dry as surface ridging moves across Kentucky and West Virginia. A parent low resides to the north of the region for the upcoming weekend, with a ridge building across the midwestern states.
314 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 (Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022) Today through Friday: High pressure moving across the area has resulted in calm winds and clear skies. The recent rainfall and cooler temps has allowed for dense fog to develop across much of the area.
Hot and humid conditions today with highs in the low/mid 90s prior to convection with Heat Indices into the 100-103 degree range. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 70s.
925 PM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Warming will continue into the weekend under strengthening high pressure aloft.
The high will move east on Thursday and we'll begin to see return flow throughout the day. When the period opens Friday, there is an upper level ridge out west.
212 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 For today, an area of low pressure to our southwest will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly south central and southeastern South Dakota. Abundant low level moisture with dewpoints still in the low to mid 50s and light southerly winds could allow for fog to develop overnight into Friday morning.
Can't rule out light showers near/west of the James River Valley Thursday morning, but the dry sub cloud layer will have difficulty saturating until afternoon when an inverted trough stretches higher dew points northward into the region from western NE/eastern CO.
Mid level ridge isn't budging today. High temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 90s east with up to 105 west. Friday looks to be a degree or two warmer. With low pressure having weakened to our west will see a seasonal wind pattern today, light in the morning, increasing to moderate levels with the sea breeze in the afternoon.
305 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 The cold front passed through as expected, and low level northerly winds are bringing drier air. Under sunny skies, highs will reach the lower 80s in most places. High pressure will move east tonight as low pressure develops over the southern Plains. A weak southerly flow in the low levels will moisten the air mass enough for some shower activity and maybe a thunderstorm. In fact, the gfs and nam no longer show any kind of cold frontal passage.
147 AM PDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures through the end of the week.
Combination of increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing trough as well as eventual shift to more of a westerly flow later this morning should bring increasing cloud bases and eventually clearing into the afternoon. As skies clear, most locations this afternoon should still be able to squeeze out highs in the low to mid 70s, with locally cooler conditions near Lk MI.
Unlike the past few days, today will be mostly dry and a little cooler across the Mid-South as a brief area of high pressure builds into the area.
Already seeing a handful of sites fogging in with the highest probability of IFR or worse vsby/cigs at HOT/ADF/HRO/BPK through morning.
351 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will return to the area Thursday afternoon into Friday.
Mid/upper ridge remains the prevailing synoptic feature over the Southern Plains and Western Gulf Coast as global models continue to indicate 500mb heights in excess of 590dam through the remainder of the short term period. Coastal locations continue to see highs in the lower to mid 90s, while area-wide lows remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
404 AM PDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Warming will continue into the weekend with hot weather for inland areas while coastal areas remain cooler and cloudier.
Meanwhile, onshore winds will keep conditions cooler near the coast/bays.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain of eastern NM and southeast CO later this afternoon, then head into the OK and TX Panhandles late this afternoon and evening, with PROB30 groups included at each TAF site.
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance The cold front passed through as expected, and low level northerly winds are bringing drier air. Under sunny skies, highs will reach the lower 80s in most places. High pressure will move east tonight as low pressure develops over the southern Plains. A weak southerly flow in the low levels will moisten the air mass enough for some shower activity and maybe a thunderstorm. In fact, the gfs and nam no longer show any kind of cold frontal passage.
Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis at midnight Thursday depicts a rather weakly amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS, with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. At the surface, weak high pressure over the central plains will slide eastward during the day Thursday, allowing for the return of strong southerly winds as a lee trough develops in eastern CO. These winds will draw high theta-e air poleward, fostering afternoon highs back in the 80s with the western zones potentially reaching the low 90s. First, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of eastern CO and move southeast into southwest KS, where the environment will be characterized by 2000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kts of 0-6km bulk shear.
/issued 355 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the region through the period.
The inbound high pressure ridge is now attempting a further clearing trend leading up to 12Z up against daytime heating and boundary layer moisture still capable of some stratocu. The influence of high pressure returns briefly tonight to promote a clearing trend and possibly some shallow fog around sunrise Friday. We remain on the western fringe of the broader longwave trough that has held firm for several days as an upper level low stalled over Hudson Bay. The upper low will wobble southward today while sending the next trough axis through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a bubble of vorticity racing through the northwest flow putting it over Mid MI during peak heating this afternoon coincident with the trough. Strong low level lapse rates develop due to the thermal trough around 750mb dropping below 0C.
An upper ridge begins to build into the area with temperatures on a warming trend.
615 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 As of 08Z surface analysis, the cold front that was responsible for this evening's showers and thunderstorms is slowly crossing through the forecast area. Otherwise, high pressure is building in behind the departing front. High pressure will continue to be present over the area but upper- level flow will usher below average temperatures into the region through the end of the period. Fog will be possible tonight as the area is expected to be under clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures.
956 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Low pressure will exit across New England this afternoon, resulting in some showers across the region. As the area of low pressure moves away into eastern Quebec tonight and Friday. high pressure will build in from the Ohio valley and promote the return to fair dry weather.
Skies become mostly clear by mid-morning as a ridge redevelops overhead. Skies remain mostly clear through Friday with the ridge firmly in place.
(Today) Light-moderate showers continue to spread southeastward across portions of the TN Valley this morning in the residual warm/moist sector airmass to the south of a cold front currently dropping through Middle TN.