Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, we're under a ridge axis as the next weather system comes ashore across the PacNW. Upper level support for this system will shift the ridge axis eastward and also flatten the high as it does so. A lobe of energy working around the base of the trough sitting off the Pacific Northwest coast will deepen the trough Saturday, leading to a shift in the flow aloft over Utah and Colorado to more southwesterly.
1152 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies dry for the next few days. Midlevel convergence along the west side of the high keeps overcast skies around most of the area this afternoon. The high slowly moves eastward over the weekend. Flow intensifies out of the SW CONUS advecting warmer air into the region.
212 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Temperatures this early morning were generally in the 30s with the exceptionally cooler spots being closer to the mid 20s. Even with the mostly clear skies, winds increasing from the south advecting in warmer conditions may help keep temperatures from decreasing too much by daybreak. Warmer weather will be the theme for the weekend.
1134 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Currently have an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes region with upper ridging about to move into the Rockies. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the Arklatex region with Lee troughing continuing to deepen. Weak upper ridging is still expected to transition to southwest flow aloft for Sat into Sun which will lead to above normal temps. Because it's been so cool lately, we forget that normal highs for this time of year are in the low 60s. Gusty south winds will accompany the warmer temps, especially on Sun, with gusts over 30 mph common.
248 AM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge presently situated over the Rockies (extending northward from Mexico to Canada) will shift eastward over the central CONUS on Friday. as a large, complex upper level trough progresses eastward ashore the North American coast. flattening /plowing through/ the aforementioned upper ridge -- the net effect of which will result in an abrupt transition from NW flow aloft to W flow aloft around sunrise (~12Z) Fri.
At the surface, a high pressure ridge is noted from central Texas into the Great Lakes region. For tonight, high pressure continues with light northeast to east winds for most areas.
Dry and cool but modifying air mass will remain in place as strong sfc ridging sprawls from eastern Texas to Nova Scotia. Temps will continue to moderate as the low-level air mass modifies and heights aloft gradually rise.
will go a tad cooler to bring temperatures inline with verification output. Will update zones to reflect the cloud situation and the cooler maximum temperatures.
Some brief inhibition shows up in guidance early this afternoon, although the guidance is divided between a bit of mid-level warming from the southwest or simply the lower troposphere rain-cooled and saturated.
Clear skies across southeast Arizona this morning as ridging aloft continues to build in. This ridge will result in continued above normal temperatures through this weekend with highs in the upper 80's to around 90 in Tucson today and Saturday.
558 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Moist east-northeast low level flow on the periphery of a developing low pressure system will maintain considerable MVFR/IFR category stratus through much of today. Cold advection stratus associated with the northwestern periphery of the developing low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through much of today over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area.
708 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Upper level ridging is currently building overhead as the pattern transitions towards well above average temperatures after spending this week much below average.
This veering profile was enough that we had a few discrete strong thunderstorms and at least one thunderstorm had a decent mesocyclone. A cold front associated with the developing low will sweep through the region tonight. By Saturday, the low and associated upper level support will lift northeast out of our area, leading to drier and breezy conditions. The combination of dry air and subsequent high pressure building into the eastern U.
703 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 An area of high pressure extends from the Ohio valley into the New England states while supporting westerly cloud layer wind and SW surface wind in SE MI today. Warming trend begins today as the upper lever trough that has been entrenched over the region this past week finally slides into eastern Quebec.
High pressure stretched from New England to Texas this morning with low pressure in southern Saskatchewan. A cold front trailed into the northern High Plains and Intermountain West from this low. This southerly return flow will also advect warmer air into the region resulting in highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
Today will be a bit cooler and breezy. Winds will also continue to ramp up across the higher elevations of the central mountains and Montana Divide, as well as along the southern benches of the Snake Plain.
641 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure was centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic with Low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
605 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A clear sky will prevail today under northwest flow and rising heights aloft as a mid-level ridge pushes north into the Southern Plains. The southerly low-level flow will elevate temperatures further on Saturday, pushing highs into the low 60s. MRM By Saturday night the mid-Mississippi Valley will be locked in southwesterly flow, situated between a high over the lower Mississippi Valley and a trough over the High Plains.
Temperatures today will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs hovering around the mid to upper 60s. Clear skies tonight will allow for temps to drop into the low to mid 40s across much of South Texas. Our warming trend continues on Saturday with highs rebounding back into the low to mid 70s.
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 922 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure extended from the middle Mississippi River Valley to New England early this morning. The high should continue to influence our weather into the early part of the new week as it slides slowly to the east and southeast.
Temperatures continue to trend cooler, as expected. Strong gusty winds developing in the early morning hours will continue and expand across the eastern slopes and plains through late morning and early afternoon in the wake of a passing disturbance and cold front yesterday.
As of 0730Z, the forecast area remains under northwest flow between a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and weak ridging over the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee troughing has slowly deepened in the High Plains while high pressure is centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures warm further into the weekend as upper ridging dominates the area and WAA becomes better established.
Fog/freezing fog across NW AR has reduced vsbys to VLIFR categories at KFYV, but this will be short lived early in the period. /Issued 306 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ Broad corridor of sfc ridging extends from the NE U.
High pressure will continue to settle over the region today, as we sit on the western side of a departing trough. Meanwhile, ongoing cold advection persists across the region, as stratus wraps around the northern edge of a low pressure system over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Cold advection stratus associated with the northwestern periphery of the developing low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through much of today over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area.
927 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure should bring a return to sunny skies today.
1048 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Low pressure will track from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the South Atlantic coast through the weekend. In swly upper level flow downstream of a complex upper trough centered along the cntl Gulf coast, considerable cirrostratus will continue to increase/thicken across cntl NC today, with associated overcast expected by early tonight. This is definitely the time period of the forecast with the lowest confidence.
609 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. Most of the upper-level energy associated with the trough remains well enough north of our CWA that there should be limited influence on us. Other than a few passing clouds overnight, the forecast remains dry, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 30s.
Cold advection stratus associated with the northwestern periphery of the developing low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through much of today over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area.
Weak low level trough axis pushes south across central CO by midday but shouldn't have any impact on the temps, with westerly winds and a warming air mass supporting mild conditions tonight.
522 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Sunny skies and cool temperatures are expected today, as a high pressure ridge begins to shift east of the region. 2 am readings were in the lower 30s. The high pressure ridge that brought the seasonably cold airmass to the region this week will gradually lose influence as it shifts east, being replaced by weak warm advection on south flow developing from the west by afternoon.
In north AL, both low and high cloud cover helped to keep temperatures several degrees warmer, and now are in the lower to middle 40s. The low clouds are not as widespread or thick today, so will be more apt to decrease or dissipate as drier easterly flow continues. Will keep forecast highs in the middle to upper 50s (a bit cooler atop the higher plateau areas).
633 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Temperatures this early morning were generally in the 30s with the exceptionally cooler spots being closer to the mid 20s. Even with the mostly clear skies, winds increasing from the south advecting in warmer conditions may help keep temperatures from decreasing too much by daybreak. Warmer weather will be the theme for the weekend.
Temperatures will a little cooler today behind the front, but highs will still be above normal in the 60s for much of the area. Winds will be lighter, and the lower elevations will be dry through the day. Look for a transition to cooler seasonal temperatures and unsettled conditions. Fast moving weather systems and moist mid level flow will bring a chance of precipitation and wind, especially for the high country.
/Tonight through Friday/ Forecast Highlights: --Quiet, dry, warmer into the weekend. The warm air will stay put through the weekend with a thermal ridge building just west of the area into tomorrow and the mid-levels transitioning back to southwesterly flow by tomorrow afternoon into evening.
The H5 ridge slowly shifts to the east tonight, bringing more southwesterly flow aloft.
One more rather cool night is in store as surface ridging begins to slowly drift off to the east overnight tonight. Locations across the eastern parts of the forecast area will once again dip down into the mid 30s, with a few locations nearing the freezing mark again tonight. Widespread freezing conditions are not expected tonight however and thus will not issue another Freeze Warning for tonight.
Clouds will continue to increase throughout the day as an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific Northwest coast.
1231 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Temperatures this early morning were generally in the 30s with the exceptionally cooler spots being closer to the mid 20s. Even with the mostly clear skies, winds increasing from the south advecting in warmer conditions may help keep temperatures from decreasing too much by daybreak. Warmer weather will be the theme for the weekend.
Northwest flow will continue over western Kansas through the short term with upper level ridging building over the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will be found across eastern Colorado bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue this weekend as an upper level ridge slides over the Plains.
Bumped temperatures up a few degrees trending toward the 95percentile for highs tomorrow as a ridge moves into the area. Highs will be in the low 70s, which climatologically speaking, will be around 20 degrees or more above normal as normal highs are in the mid 50s.
1210 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Lower clouds continue to linger over the area early this morning, with a few areas seeing some patchy fog develop throughout the morning, given the stable surface conditions and abundant moisture in the lower levels.
Have generally gone with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with slightly cooler temperatures towards the Turtle Mountains.
An upper trough currently positioned over the area will continue to move eastward today and deepen over southern Georgia and northern Florida this evening. This system will likely cut off into a rather stout upper low and continue to progress eastward over time. This will likely result in strengthening northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds over the central US. Highs tomorrow will likely climb into the low to mid 60s given the ample sunshine and relaxing surface advection.
241 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Clear skies and cool temperatures will continue tonight, as a high pressure ridge continues to shift east of the region. One more cool night is expected as the high pressure ridge slowly moves further east of the area. By tomorrow, winds will become southwesterly and bring about warmer temperatures, reaching around 60.
Dry cold front analyzed from Chadron to Guernsey to Rawlins this afternoon. but with the tight gradient behind the cold front. Will wait another hour or so before cancelling the high wind warnings. So afternoon highs Saturday looking to be 4-6 degrees warmer over today.
Another cold front, expected late in the day Saturday through Saturday night, has the potential for travel impacts from snow over mountain passes.
218 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure was centered over Ohio and Pennsylvania, while low pressure was developing near western Florida. The area of high pressure will provide fair weather for the central Appalachians through the upcoming weekend, with lower clouds and rain staying mainly to our south and east. Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend. High pressure over the north Mid Atlantic stretched from northern New England to near KY. A developing low pressure system near FL was spreading thin cirrus over the southern Appalachians. Low pressure spins off the GA coast tomorrow.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to ridge into SE TX tonight and Saturday.
An upper ridge will continue to build into the central CONUS this weekend, bringing more dry weather and warmer temperatures.
A low pressure system is moving into the area, with a cold front. This "cold front" won't do much for us in terms of temperatures, but it will bring some gusty winds (exceeding 20MPH, 25MPH in the Devils Lake Basin), and a change in wind direction to the west. Once the trough is to our east, the clouds will move out as well. Expect another night above freezing tonight, with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s. Some clouds will be possible, but overall a sunny day, with highs reaching the low 60s along the ND/SD border and the 50s elsewhere in the FA. The coming week will likely mark a transition from the somewhat mild mid-fall period into a cooler and wetter late fall period.
349 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Upper-level confluence will maintain a 1030 high pressure system centered over the eastern Ohio Valley, with the northwestern periphery of the high extending into southern Michigan. A very brief/weak shower may be possible between 12-18Z Sat tied to the weak mid-level forcing, but given the dry antecedent conditions, this is not expected and no measurable precipitation is anticipated with the initial push of warmer air.
221 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Low pressure will track from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the South Atlantic coast through the weekend. In swly upper level flow downstream of a complex upper trough centered along the cntl Gulf coast, considerable cirrostratus will continue to increase/thicken across cntl NC today, with associated overcast expected by early tonight. This is definitely the time period of the forecast with the lowest confidence.
An upper- level ridge builds for the remainder of the weekend, inducing low- level warm air advection as the main contributor of the weekend's sensible weather. TEMPS: broad upper level ridging keeps the promise of mild conditions into Wed before likely trough/storm system tracks through the end of the work week and seasonably colder temps return. glancing blow? Latest operational runs of the EC and GFS continue to point to a deepening/sharpening trough pushing across the plain states by mid week, developing a negative tilt as it lifts northeast across the great lakes.
Area dew points vary with some better mixing in places, but are mostly in the low to mid 30s. And while not forecasted, dew points are a good bit higher along our eastern fringe from Alexandria up to Monroe both in the lower 40s. Otherwise, the big 1030mb high will be slow to move and build over the Appalachians with the upper low over the SE U.
334 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend.
Clouds currently look to remain a staple across portions of the CWA tonight, but there will be some gradual eroding and clearing, as the low pressure system over the northwest Gulf of Mexico shifts east and across the Florida Peninsula overnight. High pressure will reside across the region on Saturday. With skies becoming mostly sunny, highs Saturday afternoon are expected to top on in the low and middle 60s.
107 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Upper level ridging is currently building overhead as the pattern transitions towards well above average temperatures after spending this week much below average.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb ridging will be building over the RGV throughout the short term period which will maintain relatively rainfree and warming conditions. Although the low level flow will become more onshore throughout the short term period, the surface dewpoints will not rebound quickly allowing for pretty comfortable RH values to continue. Went with model blends for the low temps but opted to go closer to the warmer MET high temps for Sat as believe that the model blends are too cool for Sat afternoon. So will be going close to near zero pops due to the influence of the 500 mb ridge.
The core of the ridge will shift slightly to the southeast through Saturday which will have the primary impact locally of enabling a more southerly flow and consequently warmer temperatures.
Northeasterly gales were observed to the north and northeast of the low across the northeast Gulf. A distinct mid-level dry slot is rotating northeast courtesy of the sharp trough moving east through the Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf. The cold front is expected to pass through the Keys not long after midnight, with freshening northwest winds in its wake.
1233 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A clear sky will prevail today under northwest flow and rising heights aloft as a mid-level ridge pushes north into the Southern Plains. The southerly low-level flow will elevate temperatures further on Saturday, pushing highs into the low 60s. MRM By Saturday night the mid-Mississippi Valley will be locked in southwesterly flow, situated between a high over the lower Mississippi Valley and a trough over the High Plains.
159 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. Highs will be near 50 or in the lower 50s. Most of the upper-level energy associated with the trough remains well enough north of our CWA that there should be limited influence on us. Other than a few passing clouds overnight, the forecast remains dry, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 30s.
1218 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Sunny skies and cool temperatures are expected today, as a high pressure ridge begins to shift east of the region. Sunny skies and cool temperatures will continue today as high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area. 2 am readings were in the lower 30s. The high pressure ridge that brought the seasonably cold airmass to the region this week will gradually lose influence as it shifts east, being replaced by weak warm advection on south flow developing from the west by afternoon.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Really nice fall-like weather conditions will continue today and tomorrow as a high pressure system remains in control. Temperatures will warm up into the low 60s with a few spots reaching mid 60s. Winds will be light generally from the east/southeast through tomorrow as the high pressure sits overhead.
249 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A short wave trof currently centered through the northern Plains will move through the upper MS Valley tonight. I think this should be the last night that much of this region experiences low temps below freezing.
/19/ High pressure will continue to settle over the region today, as we sit on the western side of a departing trough. Meanwhile, ongoing cold advection persists across the region, as stratus wraps around the northern edge of a low pressure system over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Cold advection stratus associated with the northwestern periphery of the developing low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through much of today over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area.
Southwest winds then increase tomorrow ahead of the cold front entering Western Great Lakes, likely reaching closer to 15 knots tomorrow afternoon, especially MBS where gusts above 20 knots expected. Warming trend begins today as the upper lever trough that has been entrenched over the region this past week finally slides into eastern Quebec.
The upper trough currently positioned over the area will continue to move eastward today and deepen over southern Georgia and northern Florida this evening. This system will likely cut off into a rather stout upper low and continue to progress eastward over time. This will likely result in strengthening northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds over the central US. Highs tomorrow will likely climb into the low to mid 60s given the ample sunshine and relaxing surface advection.
1044 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Sunny skies and cool temperatures are expected today, as a high pressure ridge begins to shift east of the region. Sunny skies and cool temperatures will continue today as high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area. 2 am readings were in the lower 30s. The high pressure ridge that brought the seasonably cold airmass to the region this week will gradually lose influence as it shifts east, being replaced by weak warm advection on south flow developing from the west by afternoon.
Lows tonight will drop into the low 40s to upper 30s for much of the area, warm enough to preclude frost concerns for most overnight. One exception may once again be across our southeast counties, where some areas may briefly dip closer to freezing, but overall we expect any frost to be patchier than last night and over a similar area so have decided against a frost advisory at this time.
High pressure continued to filter into the area. will go a tad cooler to bring temperatures inline with verification output. Will update zones to reflect the cloud situation and the cooler maximum temperatures.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s with a nice breeze and plenty of sunshine.
Subfreezing temperatures are most likely along the Northern Plateau and into northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with frost expected elsewhere. This also comes with ~1030 mb high pressure centered over Ohio that will progress eastward through the night. Tomorrow Heading into the day tomorrow, the aforementioned system will progress towards the Atlantic well to our south with ridging building in from the west.