Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BROAD SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WX THRU THU NIGHT. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SE U. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES TOO.
448 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A LARGE-SCALE MIDLATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF BASIN. WITH RATHER WEAK CIRCULATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WE AGREE WITH UNDERCUTTING MODEL OUTPUT RAIN CHANCES BECAUSE THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND LARGELY DECOUPLED WITH THE LOWER LEVELS. POSSIBLE WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
Showers and isoalted thunderstorms will move into the High Plains today, reaching far southwest Kansas late in the afternoon. As far as temperatures go, highs will be well above average with highs into the lower 90s along and east of highway 283. A deepening leeside trough at the surface will yield somewhat strong afternoon winds of 15 to 25 mph, especially along/west of Highway 83. Precip chances return to western Kansas early Wednesday as the remnants of a tropical depression associated with an upper level trough of low pressure lifts slowly northeast across the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains.
An upper trough will remain in place over the region today, helping to keep the weather unsettled. However, additional scattered activity is likely to develop underneath the upper trough this afternoon.
THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW.
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT DRY UP ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY ON WEEKEND FORECAST AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH CLOUDS HITTING THE HIGH GROUND. MOSTLY ON RIDGES ABOVE 3500 FEET. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CUT OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY DRIFT IT BACK TO THE WEST. WITH IFR VSBY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN DEEPER VALLEYS WHERE CLOUDS BREAK. MVFR CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS TIL 18Z.
254 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER COOLER RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK. GOES INFRARED SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
634 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
310 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 An upper level ridge will build into the region today keeping conditions dry and allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will get shunted southward as an upper level disturbance moves into the central/northern Plains. This will force an associated cold front into the Plains. Storms will generally be located in the vicinity of the slow moving cold front however they may hold together long enough to again reach the northwestern CWA.
317 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER.
/06Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ON THE BACKSIDE OF YESTERDAYS MIDLEVEL TROUGH. HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL HANG AROUND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN NM AND W TX CIRCULATES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE HIGHER READINGS ARE DUE TO A LOW TO MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THAT IS FLANKED BY A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E THAT IS ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ONLY IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD BLOW-OFF AS THE LOWER-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NILL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST KEPT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
Temperatures at Travis AFB and Davis are running about the same as 24 hours ago while the remainder of the valley is about 5-10 degrees warmer. Temperatures will return to above-normal later this week as high pressure strengthens.
243 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CEILING FORECASTS AT KMSP. KRNH AND KEAU ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ASSUMING THE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP/SPREAD IN AS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
258 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 UPPER LOW DEPARTS. UPPER LOW BRINGS MOUNTAIN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO GENEROUS ON THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS WITH THIS RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH AXIS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
126 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED THOUGH AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. AND THE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO TX UP THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY. 25IN OVER THE FAR SE CWA /MAINLY MENOMINEE COUNTY/ AND COLD FRONT STILL NEARBY WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING.
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER COOLER RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST. GOES INFRARED SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
539 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MIXING SHOULD START TO EAT AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES LESS MOIST ANS SLACKEN AWAY. HOLDING SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE EAST - ESP THE RIDGES IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG BLUE MTN AND SOUTH MOUNTAIN.
105 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. ALSO SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GENERAL EAST TO NE WINDS.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WE SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL MOVE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK.
154 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. SOME MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK LIKELY IN THE SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
424 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE RIDGES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD ALOFT.
538 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 A bitterly cold airmass continues to stream southward into central Illinois, courtesy of a 1032mb Canadian high pressure building into the central/northern Plains. High pressure will dominate the region tomorrow with very cold air sitting over the area through tomorrow night. As this high pressure ridge shifts to the east, so will the very cold air. ECMWF and Canadian are furthest south, while the GFS is little quicker and north with the track of the low. The low pressure will track from Ark into TN and with this track it should keep most of the pcpn south of the CWA through the period. VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
EXPECTING DRAINAGE WINDS TO KEEP DENVER IN DRIER WARMER AIR. I DID LOWER THE LOWS ON THE PLAINS A BIT. WITH THE WHOLE AREA FIRMLY IN THE MILDER AIRMASS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER.
PACIFIC TROUGH HAS SPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END IN OREGON BEFORE SUNRISE AND IN IDAHO AROUND SUNRISE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND RELATIVE DRYING THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
STRONG N TO NW WINDS ALOFT IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTO E CENTRAL NM MON AFTN.
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND THE WARMER LARGE WATERWAYS ARE SHOWING UP VERY WELL IN THE IR IMAGERY.
725 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL COMBINE TO HELP TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SE TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
612 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
944 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 MOST OF THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE CLEARED THE STATE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR AN ALTUS TO ADA LINE AT 230 PM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. THUS GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
756 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST WAVES AND THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN THE PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES.
/ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ Arctic cold front currently near a KMLC-KFSM line this afternoon and is expected to be near the red river by 00z Monday. Temperatures will begin to moderate during the day on monday as the low level winds become southerly as the arctic high shifts to the east.
DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
/ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR PARIS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS NOT REACHING FREEZING.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. WARMER AIRHAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER LEE SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LEE TROF KICKS EASTWARD AND ARCTIC AIRMASS GRADUALLY RECEDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS BORDER. THUS EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY MOST LOCATIONS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A COOL/DRY NORTHWEST/NORTH WIND FLOW. 18Z MOS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER THERE SO HAVE MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE OF LOW TEMPS. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE FAR SOUTH COAST. PERSISTING COOL AIR ADVECTION ON MON WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN EXPECTING HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
520 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE LOW-MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BETWEEN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. WITH A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY. AS HIGH TEMPS ON MLK DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TROUGHED SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT WITH A RELAXING GRADIENT.
DENSE CIRRUS HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST AROUND SUNRISE WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THEN MOVING INTO AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CWA. SOME DENSE CI CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING.
547 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DEPICTS A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS INCLUDING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAILS THE CENTER OF A BITTER COLD 1030 PLUS MB RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BISECTS WEST CENTRAL CUBA FROM 990 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST SOUTHEAST OF HATTERAS. WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AS AN ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COOLER AIR NOW MOVING FROM THE MAINLAND IS KEEPING WINDS UP.
Again freezing fog can be an issue again early Monday morning, reducing visibility in some areas. A quick return to southerly surface winds and increase in insolation by midday Monday, aiding to a bump in temperatures well above freezing on the higher elevation western counties. Cold highs in the low 30s are all that can be expected on the lower Plains (Hays to Medicine Lodge).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS ARE MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AT THIS TIME WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
938 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
631 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 312 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016/ THE COMPACT AND STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSED TROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS NOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
802 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 WX MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION. /ISSUED 356 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ UPSTREAM UPPER TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEARING THE TX PANHANDLE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING SE AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION RELATIVELY HARMLESSLY TOMORROW. WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AMID GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
848 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOW LEVELS.
558 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE STATE AT THIS TIME WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
514 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOW LEVELS.
628 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SOME DENSE CI CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING.
847 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
As this low moves east of the station, winds will shift to the north as a cold front moves through the CWA. Cold front with post-frontal stratus was just north of the Red River mid afternoon. The main forecast problem is how long the low clouds will hang in over the Big Country Monday, which will affect high temperatures. It appears the NAM12 has the best handle on the low clouds this afternoon, so went with its colder and more cloudy solution Monday for the Big Country where stratus dissipates mid/late afternoon. A pair of troughs will cross the region, sending a couple of cold fronts south towards our area.
BRINING DOWN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT HOLDING OUT THE LONGEST IN THE RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL WORK TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE IS. AN UPPER LOW/TROF IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS ONTARIO INTO THE NE CONUS MON AND TUE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TUE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ARE EXPD TO CONTINUE ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THRU TUE MRNG.
Overnight lows are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 30s across most of the area.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY DROPS WELL INTO THE TEENS.
Skies will remain clear overnight under the very dry, bitterly cold arctic high pressure. A bitterly cold airmass continues to stream southward into central Illinois, courtesy of a 1032mb Canadian high pressure building into the central/northern Plains. High pressure will dominate the region tomorrow with very cold air sitting over the area through tomorrow night. As this high pressure ridge shifts to the east, so will the very cold air. ECMWF and Canadian are furthest south, while the GFS is little quicker and north with the track of the low. The low pressure will track from Ark into TN and with this track it should keep most of the pcpn south of the CWA through the period. VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
/ISSUED 356 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ UPSTREAM UPPER TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEARING THE TX PANHANDLE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING SE AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION RELATIVELY HARMLESSLY TOMORROW. WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AMID GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT TO BRING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TO ALL ZONES. AFFECTING THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BUILD SWD TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. THE LOWER AND MID LVLS REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
AFFECTING THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BUILD SWD TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. THE LOWER AND MID LVLS REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
755 PM MST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE DEEPER TROUGHING AND A PLUME OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO CNTRL/NRN CALIFORNIA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD KEEPING ENERGY AND ASCENT FIELDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. /135 PM MST SUN JAN 17 2016/ FLAT RIDGING AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.