Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Shifted the highest chance of showers across northern and eastern Oklahoma based on radar trends and the expected track of the upper level low. /issued 307 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ Rain/showers will continue to develop and move eastward this morning as an upper level trough approaches the Southern Plains. Most of the rain will end by afternoon/evening but widely scattered showers will linger until the mid/upper trough moves east of the area late tonight.
947 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region today and Tonight, producing showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms continue along and ahead of a cold front, which was situated over south-central Idaho. There is a potential for stronger storms to develop near the cold front, although the front will be to the south and east of our forecast area by mid-afternoon. As of 3 am this morning on radar, a line of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a cold front, is working its way through Eastern Oregon. By early afternoon, the front will be passing through the Magic Valley and most of the area will dry out with high temperatures about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight tonight and into tomorrow, the parent upper level low of the front will continue to dig south and stall over Northern California, spreading more showers and thunderstorms over the area on Friday afternoon.
CAPE values on short term models are showing 750+j/kg by 18z today over the higher elevations where thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon. On the plains HRRR still showing highs in the lower 70s with a convective temperature around 65. With a weak pressure gradient in place, the low level winds are draining nicely. Models have an upper ridge move into Colorado today and tonight. will go with "Chance"s over the high country.
This activity is being supported moisture and confluent flow associated with a old low level trough.
The bank of 7kft midlevel cloudiness along and west of Highway 83 should move east today with the approach of a 700mb warm front. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer RAP model which was a few degrees warmer than guidance in some areas.
525 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2016 Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today, but a Pacific storm system will bring much cooler air for Friday and the weekend. Satellite loops show an upper level low pressure system pushing into the Pacific Northwest with an associated frontal boundary dropping through northern California.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge axis is draped across extreme South Florida and well into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
A warm front already in place will remain roughly across the ND SD border through the day Wednesday. As the center of low pressure moves west to east along the front more storms are expected to initiate late Wednesday afternoon and night from Bismarck through the James River Valley. The moisture rich southerly flow riding north of the warm front will allow for heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop along with the threat of hail and damaging winds. Ample low level shear near the warm front will also provide an increased risk for tornadoes.
Lingering low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will gradually give way through Thursday as Atlantic high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf.
428 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper level subsidence persists with the southwestward expansion of the mid-Atlantic centered 595 dam upper ridge into the lower Mississippi River Valley. 5H heights will fall by a few meters as relatively lower northern GOM heights advance west and, with central plains shallow troughing pushing a weak mid-level boundary towards the Red River Valley, late week into weekend conditions will become more cloudy and unsettled.
132 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
Upper low swinging into western Montana early this morning with jet pushing lingering thunderstorms to the edges of the cwa. Cold front will sweep into North Dakota this morning with airmass drying. As the low lifts toward southern Saskatchewan today could see a few storms wrap around into north central Montana this evening. Northwest flow behind the upper low will bring cooler air into the state.
An upper level trough stretched along much of the West Coast will maintain seasonable weather conditions through midweek. High pressure will then build over the region for the second half of the workweek and result in a gradual warming trend, especially inland.
234 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 A cold front will approach today and slowly cross the area tonight.
404 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure off the east coast will remain there through the weekend.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week, bringing hotter and drier conditions. South-southeast flow in the lowest 10k ft helped to concentrate showers and storms over the western piedmont early this evening. Overnight temps in the low and mid 70s. As mid-upper level ridge extends inland from offshore, should see a decrease in coverage of afternoon convection, especially east of highway 1. Based on max temps in the upper 80s NW to the lower 90s in the east, and anticipation of less convection, have adjusted max temps up a couple of degree from previous forecast. The upper level ridge is forecast to continue to build westward from the western Atlantic into the southeastern and southern mid-Atlantic states mid to late week.
257 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
Pretty much went with a blend of persistence and a bias-corrected MOS and/or raw blend for temperature guidance, as very warm surface and boundary layer temperatures are forecast for the next couple of days, and mixing of the lower levels by winds will keep minimum temperatures up as well. A generally weak to moderate south flow will back and become more southeast in the afternoon and increase as well, as the contrast between the hot temperatures west and cooler waters near the coast create a good sea-breeze circulation.
A cold front will then bring better chances for rain during the weekend, as well as bringing cooler air to the area. With the inverted trough still over the area will keep isolated storms going over this area through the night. Forecast lows in the low 70s still look good.
325 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 The upper level ridge will continue to slowly strengthen today and into Thursday.
Could be some stronger storms with heavy rain and small hail over the far Northeast plains with higher moisture values in the lower levels. A jet of southwesterly flow aloft will move over the state Thursday as an upper trough moves from the Great Basin over the Rockies. A theta-e ridge axis will push into the northeastern corner of the state while the jet is aloft, with bulk shear increasing through the afternoon. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler compared to todays readings as cooler air will already be pushing into the state behind a cold front expected to push south into the state during the morning.
158 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure will build off the Mid Atlantic coast and bring warmer temperatures and more typical late day and evening showers and thunderstorms possible through the remainder of the week. Thus, expect dry wx aftr midnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Conditions become more summer-like Wed/Thu with Bermuda sfc hi pres and building western Atlantic ridging aloft. Lee trof along with lcl seabreeze bndrys should be the trigger for sct diurnal convection.
Broad trough remains over the area today. This will result in a bit cooler temperatures as far inland as the Sacramento region.
Expect dewpoints to be similar to yesterday if not a degree or so higher through the afternoon while temperatures should be 1-3 degrees warmer (assuming little to no cloud cover). On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move into the area bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and evening. GFS still looks to be the slowest with the frontal passage with precipitation chances not entering the CWA until after 7PM, but have opted with the majority of models and bring chances in after 18Z with the highest POPs in central Kansas.
Previous forecast still on track as waves of energy will cross the area, riding overtop of the developing eastern Conus ridge.
609 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 A cold front will approach today and slowly cross the area tonight.
This morning low pressure from the mid levels to the surface is centered over the Florida Panhandle. The sub-tropical ridge is building west from the Atlantic gradually pushing the low to the west. Deep tropical moisture is associated with the low with PWATS of 2. 5 arcoss portions of Acadiana today as this low draws closer.
Otherwise, partly/mostly cloudy skies remain in place over much of the cntrl TN Valley this late Tue evening, as a weak upper ridge pattern remains fairly stagnant over the mid/srn Atlantic states. Temps overnight are still xpcted to fall into the lower/mid 70s range given dew pt trends in the 70s over much of the region. 09 For 06Z TAFs: Upper low sitting off the AL coast will continue to pump moisture into the TN valley. Also radar shows a few shra over nrn GA from a weak disturbance rotating arnd the upper low. More shra/tsra are possible mainly Wednesday aftn/evening thanks to daytime heating and any disturbances from the upper low.
Center of the upper low is moving northeast out of the forecast area this evening. A very weak upper level trough lingers over the Pacific northwest Wednesday. Upper level ridge building in Thursday with sunny skies and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Warming trend will continue into Fri and Sat with the ridge axis over the area.
Upper low across Pac NW continues to slide eastward into the nrn Rockies. Dewpoints across SCntrl SD are in the low 70s and are sliding northwestward into NW SD where dewpoints are currently in the 50s. Cooler and drier air will push into the region on the backside of the low.
Tomorrow, will begin to see deeper moisture move nwd as the monsoon picks up some steam thanks to subtropical convection and the short wave trough moving into the inter-mtn region. upper trof. but as northern stream trof ejects eastward along the U. May even have to be concerned with strong convection persisting past midnight across the plains given the potential for descent CAPE and forcing with the upper trof.
The main forecast challenge tonight will be the temperatures as an upper level ridge builds into the region into the latter part of the week. The upper level trough that brought cool weather to the region will move east today. rapid heating into the end of the week will occur as an upper level ridge builds into the west coast.
A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity tonight, with storms expected to develop west of the CWA by early evening, then spread eastward through the overnight hours. The precipitation will push out of the region early Wednesday morning, then look for conditions to reset during the day before a cold front approaches and becomes the focus for thunderstorm development again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There will still be a decent low level jet in place, and in conjunction with the cold front moving through, cannot rule out another chance for severe weather. Conditions finally begin to quiet down Thursday night as high pressure moves in behind the exiting storm system. Slightly cooler air moves back in on Thursday with highs back down in the 80s.
Heavy rain will be the main concern in the high moisture, low shear environment. With a warm and muggy airmass in place, expect lows tonight only in the lower 70s.
Upper level low over Idaho panhandle will continue to move off to the northeast today. A trailing trough line extending back through northern California means that the southeast part of the forecast area will remain under southwest flow aloft with a little bit of upper level divergence, and a little bit of monsoon moisture nearby. This trough line passes to the east tonight, leaving the area in dry northwest flow for Thursday. Temperatures will slowly warm as the influence of the upper low drifts away.
415 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 07z sfc analysis shows diffuse low pressure to the south and west of eastern Kentucky while high pressure resides on the east side of the Appalachians.
219 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will exit the area today, with a decreasing trend of clouds and showers.
411 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016 RAP13 indicated a short wave trough in southwesterly flow aloft was responsible for nocturnal showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado early this morning.
327 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016 Pretty active in the short term with fire weather issues today and then rain chances with a cold front moving into the area tonight into Thursday. Cold front extends south from the low to just west of Casper, to near Rock Springs to just south of Salt Lake City.
A weak low pressure system will bring isolated thunderstorms to northern and east central nevada this afternoon and evening. high pressure will bring dry weather with a warming trend Thursday through the weekend. Weak upper trough will drop into Nevada today from the north producing isolated thunderstorms across northern and east central Nevada. This short wave will move out of the area later tonight with upper ridge building in on Thursday for dry weather.
355 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2016 The large low pressure system that brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Rockies the last two days is currently centered over northwest Montana this morning. The cooler air mass/lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures below-normal for the day for northwest Montana and snow levels as low as 8000 feet. As the low exits the area by Thursday, a cool northwesterly flow aloft will help aid in instability for western Montana and along the Divide.
and the highest amount of cloud cover was over the southern and eastern Midsouth counties. Low pressure near the central Gulf Coast with surface shear axis extending north into Mississippi will drift northwestward into southern Arkansas before weakening to the point of no identification.
141 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 As has been progged the past couple of days, an upper ridge axis is now in place across the TN valley east through the mid Atlantic coast. The upper low in the northern Gulf was migrating westward with one lobe of vorticity in GA and eastern AL and another stronger wave/circulation pushing into northeast FL. At the surface, the low pressure center was now in the Jackson/Meridian MS area with a tightening gradient increasing southeast flow across eastern AL into GA.
A much quieter and cooler end to the week as a cold front moves through the area this morning and cooler northwest flow will persist into the weekend behind it. Cold front is currently located from near Forsyth to just north of Sheridan WY. By this afternoon breezy northwest winds will provide downslope drying that will work against shower activity, despite the area being under the upper trof. Kept just a slight chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon over the eastern half of the forecast area where moisture convergence over the top of the cold front may be enough to support a few updrafts. Instability increases as well with area being further under the upper trof.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon, much warmer than this time yesterday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is located over Wyoming, extending south along the Colorado Front Range and into New Mexico. Aloft, a distinguishable disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery over New Mexico, moving north towards the High Plains.
The potential for heavy rainfall will continue to increase for the ArkLaMiss over the next several days as a low pressure system and abundant tropical moisture push into the region. The best upper level support from the low is expected to remain along the Gulf Coast today, but model guidance is in agreement the core of the low will push farther inland tomorrow as the low retrogrades along the coastline.
257 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge will remain centered off the east coast, with weak energy aloft moving across the area, resulting in mainly diurnally enhanced convection given weak mid level support and lack of any surface features (weak return flow).
232 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Currently we have deep upper level trough over the western U. MCS was tracking across eastern Dakotas early this morning with stout low level jet across much of the high Plains. Closer to home, area was convection free with a soupy airmass as temperatures and dewpoints were both in the low to mid 70s. For today, the heat and humidity will continue across the area, with similar, but slightly warmer conditions to yesterday. Not much to focus organized convection so will keep pops on the lower end at this juncture. The upper trough will gradually slide east into the Rockies on Thursday which will help to draw more low level moisture and warming into the area.
adjoining E-W warm front extends eastward across N SD. Afternoon development across the east will depend on far east cold front gets.
The H5 ridge remains in place, continuing the compressional heating areawide.
611 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
1036 PM PDT Tue Aug 9 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move across the area through Wednesday. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values should be in the lower to middle 90s inland. 925 temps will be into the mid 20s celsius and consensus of MOS numbers supports dew points in the low to mid 70s. 591dm ridge axis collapses somewhat as the day wears on with lower level forcing tied to the surface/850 frontal boundaries will hold off to the northwest of the cwa.
349 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure will build off the Mid Atlantic coast through the weekend.
A low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will move south into the desert southwest by midweek.
1041 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cool pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
Clouds will be on the increase this 24-TAF period as low pressure approaches Middle TN. Low VFR clouds will be likely by the afternoon hours on Monday, but rain showers/storms should stay northwest along a warm front in MO/KY.
723 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cool pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
940 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure builds-in overnight.
Additional periods of convection will become more likely on Monday afternoon as disturbances continue to move in from the west with aid from an upper level trough out over the Rockies. A stalled cold front has maintained persistent showers across portions of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana throughout much of the day.
1000 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A few lingering showers tonight over the higher terrain, especially Sierra crest.
An upper level low over far eastern Oregon this evening will exit into Idaho later tonight, with a decreasing trend in shower activity over western Washington.
1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will settle across the Carolinas through Monday before shifting offshore. A cold front will drop slowly south of the Carolinas mid week and then return as a warm front late in the week.
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 The short term concern is the shower threat dropping south with the cold front overnight into monday. Overnight low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight than last night ahead of the front with some cloud cover.
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will move across the region tonight and into the day on Monday.
849 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will move across the region tonight and into the day on Monday.
/issued / Despite the cooler temperatures. Deeper low level moisture will begin to surge north tomorrow night with slightly milder lows as a warm front near the Gulf lifts north to near the KY/TN border.
47 Quite a messy forecast for the week ahead across southeast TX, dominated by moist southwest flow aloft ahead of broad mid/upper level trough over the Wrn U. Several disturbances will keep things unsettled across the region with more widespread moist convection late in the week as leading upper low is ejected ahead of next bit of energy digging into the Pac NW.
As High Pressure at the Surface migrates eastward across the Commonwealth tonight, it will anchor over the mid Atlantic tmrw and a more zonal wswly flow aloft will quickly stream moisture into/overtop the PAH FA. The circulation around the High will retain an easterly lower tropospheric flow into tmrw am, while the column starts to saturate top-down in this overrunning environ. We'll then see the lower trop flow gradually veer tmrw pm and esp tmrw night as it becomes warm sectored and southerly.
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016/ Broad area of high pressure centered over the Midwest continues to gradually translate ewd into the TN/OH Valley states this Sun afternoon. In fact, the latter half of the global models are keying on a deepening upper trough pattern and associated sfc wave out of the Srn Plains translating ewd late Thu into Fri. 09 FOR 00Z TAFS: High pressure currently over the region will begin to shift east towards the Atlantic coast tonight. As this happens a low will move out into the central plains sending a warm front up through the area between 18-23Z Monday. A few models suggest light rain developing along the warm front as it lifts through the region but this would be mainly confined to the KMSL terminal.
747 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Freezing temperatures are expected tonight before temperatures moderate into mid week. With 850mb temperatures expected to range form -2C to -4C, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for temperatures to fall to near or below freezing overnight. A freeze warning has been issued for all counties, with lowest temperatures into the mid 20s expected in the ridge counties.
/issued 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) As of mid afternoon, a stationary front remains just south of the forecast area and will lift back north as a warm front across the CWA overnight. Will maintain chance POPs overnight as the warm front lifts north across the area. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s. West Central Texas will be in the warm sector on Monday, with a warm front located along the Red River to our north and a sharpening dryline along our western border late afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies Monday morning, will give way to partly cloudy skies by afternoon, with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s east, to the upper 80s west.
At 03z, upper low was seen on water vapor imagery spinning over the Pacific NW. Upper low has moved into the western Idaho region placing deformation zone across our western CWA. Upper low will shift into northern Utah/southern Idaho by midday Monday. We are still looking for some isolated rumbles of thunder over and near the higher terrain late today. Upper low drops south into southern Nevada late Monday.
912 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Clouds are increasing from west to east across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s. ARS Despite the cooler temperatures. Deeper low level moisture will begin to surge north tomorrow night with slightly milder lows as a warm front near the Gulf lifts north to near the KY/TN border.