Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Prevailing southerlies tonight through Monday will continue to reinforce a fairly warm air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. Thunderstorm chances will be fairly limited early in the period despite medium range models continuing to indicate an upper level trough becoming more negatively-tilted while lifting northeast out of the Great Basin into the Northern High Plains late Tuesday, ushering a weak cold front into extreme western Kansas Tuesday night. Otherwise, a drier trend is likely through the end of the week as ridging aloft builds across the Central and Western High Plains. Prevailing southerlies will reinforce the much warmer air mass already situated across the high plains Tuesday with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) to the lower 30s(F).
1142 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the Susquehanna Valley. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
216 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A weak cold front pushes south, eventually stalling out close by to the southwest. Strengthening high pressure aloft, along with heat by mid to late week.
Although the 12Z run of the HRRR shows a couple of pop-up thunderstorms in our southern CWA and the NAMnest tries to give us a little convection in our east, I suspect that we will be too capped to allow much activity to develop, despite the high CAPE environment. Some hi-res/short term models bring dying convection close to our western CWA this evening, but the 850 mb theta-e ridge will likely be skewed just east of our CWA, and will offer little help to struggling convection in western/central Nebraska.
The latest dew points in eastern Nebraska were in the lower to mid 70s. Before then, a short wave trough along with waa is expected to bring some storms this evening into western sd possibly affecting north central sd. Otherwise, tonight's lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with steady south to southeast winds. An upper-level trough will be positioned across the Rockies Tuesday morning, infringing on a largely amplified upper-level ridge across the Northern Plains. At the surface, a pool of upper 60s to mid-70s dewpoints will reside ahead of a north/south oriented cold front/trough, positioned across the western CWA. Throughout the day, the upper-trough will negatively tilt as it shifts eastward, and the thermal axis will shift east.
1036 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 19Z UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis continued to indicate broad westerly flow aloft over the CWA with short wave trough moving east across central Kansas, with much of CWA under the effects of subsidence behind it. At the surface flow aloft has become southeasterly with convergent area/trough once again setting up in western CWA. An upper-level deep trough moves out of the Great Basin and over the High Plains during the middle of the week. Tuesday, a surface front, associated with this trough, will move through the Tri-State region; producing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
432 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 As upper level low pressure system remains over New England, showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, the combination of elevated dew points and warm afternoon highs in the lower 90s will bring heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, which will create heat exhaustion symptoms for those with long outdoor exposure times and those sensitive to heat, especially the young and elderly. Elongated 5h ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and cutoff low over New England will maintain deep west to northwest flow over the forecast area. Uncertainty late in the week is on the high side. Weak mid-level troughing develops over the Southeast Thu and lingers through Sun. However, medium range guidance differs on the location and strength of the 5h trough.
1155 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Latest upper level analysis has ridging across the central CONUS with large trof across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central South Dakota with winds mostly northwest now across the forecast area. Temperatures at 1 pm are in the 70s behind the low/cold front, and in the low 90s ahead. As the upper low slides a bit further east-northeast toward southwest MT, another round of showers and storms are expected, especially over western portions of the area, late Monday and Monday night.
Along with the gusty winds, expect much cooler temperatures on Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase after mid-week, especially over the higher terrain. While we will see some decrease in speeds overnight, expect winds to remain elevated across the higher terrain. Another round of widespread, strong southwest winds will occur on Monday as a dry cold front sweeps through the state. Some of our colder locations in the high country will likely fall to near freezing.
237 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A mid level disturbance will move east and southeast across the Carolinas this morning as a weak surface cold front sink southward and into the area.
Overnight lows should fall into the low to middle 70s. Guidance has gone back and forth with the idea of an upper low developing over the region this week and if that is the case expect daily shower and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures will remain in the 90s for the most part, unless the upper level low parks over the area to which temperatures will be dramatically changed.
207 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
401 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A weak cold front drops south through the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas today and tonight.
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A cold front will sag slowly southward today as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada. The front will attempt to return northward during the middle of the week as an upper low churns over New England. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region from the northeast late this week into the weekend. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated today as a cold front drops southward into central and eventually southern Virginia. There may be just enough moisture, instability, and lift aided by terrain circulations to pop a shower or two over the southern Shenandoah Valley/near the central Virginia Blue Ridge from mid to late afternoon, but confidence in anything more than that is very low due to drying north/northwesterly flow.
Monday afternoon looks to be more interesting as a warm front lurks to the south of the area.
Highs on Tuesday will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 102 degrees. An upper level ridge will be over the region through this weekend.
255 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Aviation High pressure will bring mostly fair weather through this week. The upper pattern across North America this week shows upper lows over the NE and NW CONUS with a narrow ridge in between. One complicating factor is a small upper low that gets trapped under the upper ridge and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to southern Lake Michigan and far SW Lower Michigan on Monday afternoon and evening. This low weakens and retrogrades by Tuesday and the rest of the week looks dry as sfc and upper ridging are in place. Winds and waves will remain light through much of this week as high pressure dominates.
On Monday a rather narrow upper ridge will be in close proximity. Pattern will then remain active as it morphs into a more persistent upper troughing regime.
High pressure will remain over the central CONUS and southwest flow on the back side of the high will provide hot temperatures across the Panhandles.
Surface winds will be dry and out of the west tonight as a result of the upper low/trough over the western US pushing eastward towards the central US. An upper-level trough over western CONUS has the forecast area in a SW flow regime, which will continue to bring dry air into the area through at least mid-week. An upper high that is currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move west over southern Texas and northern Mexico. This will most likely bring monsoonal moisture into the area, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 90s and giving a slightly better chance of precipitation through the weekend.
20Z water vapor imagery shows broad ridging over the lower MS River valley and a trough slowly working its way through the Pacific Northwest. After temperatures top out in the 90s area-wide today, we only fall back to the low to mid 70s by tomorrow morning. Have dropped temps a few degrees for the eastern half of the area due to the cloud cover with highs in the upper 80s, while the western half still sees a good shot at the low 90s. Heading into Tuesday, lee troughing will strengthen into a low pressure system in western KS with our CWA within the warm sector. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Tuesday night mainly north of the warm front, which would put the best precip in the northern half of the CWA.
540 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Upper level low pressure will be located across Southern New England through the midweek period.
Currently, radar is finding a few showers in the Gulf waters well north of the lower Keys and nothing else. The overall result will be mostly clear skies which will allow temperatures to ease into the lower 90s, and virtually no convective activity.
The large scale upper level pattern is taking the shape of an Omega Block with a low over the Rockies, a ridge over the Great Lakes, and a low over New England. Overhead, a northerly jet cuts across NYS between the upstream ridge and downstream trough. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s across western NY to the upper 70s east of Lake Ontario. Diurnally-driven showers and storms are expected again Tuesday, moving almost due west this time, but again only affecting the Eastern Lake Ontario region as the upper low remains over New England.
This morning at 0730Z a mid level low was moving southeast across eastern Oklahoma while an upper level trough was dropping southward into Nevada. Today the clouds, especially across the east will keep temperatures a little cooler, but still in the upper 80s. Tuesday night will bring the next chance for convection as a energy ejects northeast into the Plains as the upper trough pivots northeast into the northern Plains. Storms are expected to develop along a cold front across Nebraska and northeast of a warm front across north central Kansas.
Upper low that migrated through the region yesterday is currently located over central-southern Idaho with moist flow to the low's east and wraparound moisture promoting stratiform rain from the Blue Mtns eastward. Winds will be breezy to gusty, increasing through the day as a cold front works its way down to the surface.
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
05 on the 12Z KLCH RAOB, a completely precip free day would be a tough ask, but the combination of upper ridging across much of the gulf of Mexico and ongoing widespread cloud cover should limit convective development with just isolated showers expected. Aloft, mid/upper level ridge over the ERN Gulf is progged to gradually translate WWD TWD the NW Gulf, amplifying across ERN TX on THU. For the Independence Day weekend, rain chances unfortunately return as the mid/upper level ridge continues to amplify as it retrogrades WWD while a trof axis develops along the Gulf Coast. 13 High pressure ridging across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf will yield a light to modest southerly flow through mid week. The high is forecast to shift west and weaken toward the end of the week, resulting in west to southwest winds.
Majority of CAMs have upper low anchored over northeast MO and west central IL over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Most activity will die off by shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, but with an upper jet streak and weak upper troughing nudging toward the Lower MS Valley, isolated showers cannot be ruled out overnight mainly across North MS.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A modest, 591-592dam 500mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over Deep South Texas over the next 24 to 48 hours. This ridge will continue to produce very warm temperatures under partly cloudy skies, and suppress precipitation chances through the short-term period. Actual ambient temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal normal, with highs in the mid-upper 90s to lower-mid 100s out west; highs will be about a degree or two warmer on Tuesday.
547 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A cold front will sag slowly southward today as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada. The front will attempt to return northward during the middle of the week as an upper low churns over New England. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region from the northeast late this week into the weekend. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated today as a cold front drops southward into central and eventually southern Virginia. There may be just enough moisture, instability, and lift aided by terrain circulations to pop a shower or two over the southern Shenandoah Valley/near the central Virginia Blue Ridge, but confidence in anything more than that is very low due to drying north/northwesterly flow.
648 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A weak cold front drops south through the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas today and tonight.
Upper level low pressure is moving eastward into the Rocky Mountains.
Given low pressure over the region and a stationary boundary near the Montana and North Dakota border to remain in place over the next couple of days, chances for showers and even some thunderstorms at times will continue. Upper ridging will begin to extend into the region for the second half of the week per latest ensemble 500 mb heights, resulting in reduced chances for thunderstorms as well as a warm up in temperatures.
This morning, warm and humid conditions persist as a 500mb ridge axis continues to strengthen over the IL/IN Cornbelt Plains. This will result in greater cloud cover and also usher in some cooler temperatures aloft, 850mb temps in the teens through the afternoon. This should keep temperatures tempered a bit, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but humidity will keep heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Through the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Ozarks building north across central and eastern Missouri as the upper low lifts north/northeast.
with heat index values in the 100-105 range slight drop in dew points into the lower 70s by the afternoon. High pressure will dominate the local pattern with west to southwesterly surface flow. By mid week an upper level trough will develop over the southeast coast with a more unsettled weather pattern developing.
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure is still in place over the state with the ridge axis shifting south as a low deepens over New England. Rain chances are a bit lower for this afternoon as well, with the highest chances inland. Winds and seas will remain below any criteria through the period as high pressure remains in place across the waters.
638 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
Aloft, mid/upper level ridge over the ERN Gulf is progged to gradually translate WWD TWD the NW Gulf, amplifying across ERN TX on THU. For the Independence Day weekend, rain chances unfortunately return as the mid/upper level ridge continues to amplify as it retrogrades WWD while a trof axis develops along the Gulf Coast. 13 High pressure ridging across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf will yield a light to modest southerly flow through mid week. The high is forecast to shift west and weaken toward the end of the week, resulting in west to southwest winds.
Scattered SHRA continues over most areas this morning with the highest probability of RA/TS across western terminals by afternoon. Despite a slightly cooler temperature forecast this afternoon, high humidity will keep us quite soupy and this will be most apparent during the overnight hours where lows in the 70s will be common.
Along with the gusty winds, expect much cooler temperatures today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase after mid-week, especially over the higher terrain. The pressure gradient aloft from this low has kept the winds gusting 30 to 40 mph over the higher terrain of northern Arizona through the night. The Red Flag Warning also continues until 8 PM MST this evening for the high winds, low relative humidity and very dry fuels. High pressure centered over Texas and New Mexico starts building into the area mid week and with it a warming trend for northern Arizona.
1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Blend of hires model data continues to keep diurnal convection associated with New England upper low to the north/east of CPA. For the daylight hours Tuesday, any morning sunshine will self destruct into extensive mdt cu as a lobe of cooler mid level air and some mesoscale forcing arrives. Lows tonight will Max temps Tuesday will settle into the mid 50s to mid 60s, while high temps Tuesday will be 2-4F cooler than Monday - especially over the north and east. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
Anticipated snow accumulations of 6-12 inches over the high elevations through this morning. Widespread rain will shift northward across northwest Montana on Tuesday, as the closed low pressure circulation wobbles over the region.
714 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Upper level low pressure will be located across Southern New England through the midweek period.
/issued 334 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ This morning the sub tropical ridge is still centered over the Gulf with a deep upper low over ID. This low has a trough extending southward to Mexico.
310 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 More clouds and cooler weather will prevail across Southern California through today as a low pressure trough deepens over the inter-mountain west. This is a result of the low pressure to our north which continues to deepen. The low will continue to bring cold air from the Pacific NW into SoCal and today's high temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees below seasonal averages in portions of the inland valleys. The low/trough will move inland by tonight and begin to shift northward, cutting off the supply of cold air from the north.
510 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper low will over New England will remain overhead into mid week.
The cooling trend across the interior is over! The upper-level trough over the Western U. will shift eastward today as high pressure offshore tries to build back into the area. Interior highs will rebound as a result and climb back into the 90s in the warmer valleys as early as Tuesday. Most inland areas will observe afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s today, though some of the warmer spots may creep into the upper 80s. Both the GEFS and the EPS keep general troughiness over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend.
/issued 421 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A modest, 591-592dam 500mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over Deep South Texas over the next 24 to 48 hours. This ridge will continue to produce very warm temperatures under partly cloudy skies, and suppress precipitation chances through the short-term period. Actual ambient temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal normal, with highs in the mid-upper 90s to lower-mid 100s out west; highs will be about a degree or two warmer on Tuesday.
Upper level trough is anchored over central ID with wrap around moisture impacting SW Idaho and SE Oregon.
201 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic with the ridge axis settling south as a broad low moves over the New England coast. Highs will be generally in the lower 90s near the coast to the mid 90s inland, with some upper 90s in pockets. Lows will be generally in the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast to the lower to mid 70s inland. High pressure ridging south of the area will keep a westerly flow across the coastal waters through the period.
As the low level jet interacts with this feature and any remnant outflow from ongoing convection, numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop after midnight and congeal into a backbuilding MCS. Latest guidance continues to support the Flash Flood Watch and have utilized the HREF probability matched mean guidance to place the highest QPF (2 to 4 inches) in a band from near Mexico to Wentzville, MO, with 1 to 2 inches likely across the remainder of the watch area.
With the weak upper level ridge axis over us this morning, the precip over the Plateau was moving to the SE while the rest of the precip was moving NE. All precip should move to NE within the next few hours as the ridge axis moves to our east. Convection got off to an early start today as our weak upper level ridge moves east and an upper level short wave approaches from the west.
322 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Clouds have held tough today, which have kept temperatures a few degrees lower in the low to middle 80s.
the upper level trof axis associated with the Western CONUS low is progged to shift northeast into the Northern Plains which will allow for the surface boundary/weak shallow cold front to drop southeast through the Panhandles.
Outside of a persistent shower/thunderstorm in our Gulf waters well north of the lower Keys, and a few showers in the vicinity of the Cay Sal Bank, radar has remained clear.
Some showers and thunderstorms may linger across the far eastern CWA into the afternoon on Tuesday as the upper level short wave trough exits the area. Highs should warm into the lower to mid 90's.
834 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An unseasonably strong low pressure area will move across the Great Basin today, keeping gusty onshore flow over Southern California. A weak trough will remain with us much of this week, but the weather will be dry and gradually warmer. It will be much warmer by the Holiday weekend. A rainfall summary has been posted to our website as well The unseasonably cold trough that is over the west this morning will keep gusty onshore flow over the mts/deserts through this evening.
254 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Upper level analysis has a very amplified pattern across the CONUS with ridge over central portions and large trof over the west. Northern Plains lies just to the east of the western trof with closed low centered over southern Idaho. Cool front nudges eastward into central SD Tuesday as the upper trof and low start to move north-northeast through western MT.
103 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A trough of low pressure will push across the Great Basin tonight and Tuesday with much cooler weather prevailing. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will then build later this week for a warming trend.
The low pressure system responsible for all the rain across the area will continue its slow march to the north and east through the northern Rockies tonight. Meanwhile, in southwest Montana and the high elevations of Lemhi County, ID, snow will be possible again tonight, though snow levels will be higher than last night. As this system exits, it will leave a broad trough centered over the West Coast in place. That broad trough sets up southwest flow over the region, which is a typical pattern for thunderstorms this time year. A closed low pressure system over the region continues to cause low ceilings and rain at area terminals.
Could see some strong to severe thunderstorms moving into eastern ND by Tuesday evening as the cap weakens and we get the trough axis pushing into our CWA.
Dry air aloft and proximity of upper ridge axis over the eastern Gulf should keep convection isolated until early evening.