Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight into Sunday. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken across the lower Texas coast Sunday but breezy conditions will continue across the coastal sections of deep south Texas this evening.
Sunny and dry weather has prevailed today under an upper level ridge. A cold front crosses the Continental Divide Sunday morning and moves from west to east across central and Southwest Montana. Despite cooler temperatures, relative humidity will drop back to near 20 percent Sunday afternoon. Showers decline in coverage Sunday night, but windy conditions continue as the upper level low lingers in Southern Alberta.
235 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as a broad ridge centered along the northern Gulf Coast continues to promote a warm southwesterly flow across the region. Subsidence from this ridge has helped to promote a dry profile as noted by 12z soundings and other surface observations taken throughout the day. As a result, temperatures have surged into the lower 80s across much of the valley as of 1930z. However, with southerly flow in place and a still mostly clear sky, expect a similar day as highs peak in the low to mid 80s. An upper trough dropping from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will attempt to send a weak front into Kentucky and Tennessee Sunday evening into Sunday night.
The ridge will shift to our south on Sunday producing slightly warmer temperatures.
749 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
VFR through the period at all sites as deep high pressure prevails, although weakening with time. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 62 80 63 / 0 10 30 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 60 77 59 / 0 20 60 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 56 82 59 77 58 / 0 20 80 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 55 74 52 / 0 20 80 20 70.
512 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 High pressure will cross the region tonight.
/issued 647 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ 00Z TAFS High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will maintain light southerly flow over the region through the night. /issued 320 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ Sfc analysis this afternoon shows high pressure lingering over the sern CONUS, keeping us in an onshore low-level flow which has led to dewpoints up to the 60s across the forecast area today. Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging aloft remaining in place. Warm, dry (but muggier) conditions will linger into the early work week as high pressure to our east remains in control while weak ridging holds aloft.
Lows tonight will drop back into the low to mid 50s.
Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as a broad ridge centered along the northern Gulf Coast continues to promote a warm southwesterly flow across the region. Subsidence from this ridge has helped to promote a dry profile as noted by 12z soundings and other surface observations taken throughout the day. As a result, temperatures have surged into the lower 80s across much of the valley as of 1930z. However, with southerly flow in place and a still mostly clear sky, expect a similar day as highs peak in the low to mid 80s. An upper trough dropping from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will attempt to send a weak front into Kentucky and Tennessee Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Upper air analysis a broad ridge over the central/southern Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley.
645 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 (This evening through Sunday) As deep/strong cyclone shifts eastward across the northern Plains and southern Canada today, cold front will progress through central and southern Plains tonight and Sunday. The 12Z model guidance is cooler (10 to 15 degF) across western, northern, and central Oklahoma for Sunday, with more post-frontal cloud cover expected. Rain chances may increase some Sunday evening and night as stalled front begins to return north as a warm front and weak lift commences.
840 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front sags into northeast Oklahoma and possibly into far northwest Arkansas through Sunday morning. The scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north of the cold front in a zone of isentropic lift across southeast Kansas and move into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning.
High pressure will remain over the region tonight through much of the day Sunday, keeping conditions dry and mild.
Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s east to the lower 60s west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s west to upper 50s east while highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 80s.
948 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 At 9 PM CDT a weak and dry cold frontal boundary was sagging south through northern North Dakota. The front will stall across the southwest Sunday morning, and then will become the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as it moves back east as a warm front. Expect chilly overnight lows near freezing in the north, and in the upper 30s south. Expecting mainly rain showers elsewhere, with winds sustained at 15 to 20 mph and high temperatures in the lower 60s north central to lower 70s southwest.
Will see a few high clouds push in slowly in the from west ahead of an approaching upper level trough seen in latest water vapor imagery. The ridge will shift to our south on Sunday producing slightly warmer temperatures.
High pressure will continue to move slowly eastward from the Florida Peninsula into the Western Atlantic waters tonight into Sunday. It will also allow temps to be a little warmer tomorrow but still pleasant to end the weekend. Maximum temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s across the eastern portions of South Florida and upper 80s to lower 90s across the Gulf coast and inland areas with both sea breezes developing.
A weak front from a low pressure area along the west coast will move inland this afternoon and evening. Dry zonal flow on Sunday will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the interior.
Dewpoints remain in the lower 60s, which is remarkably low for early May. Surface analysis shows high pressure extending from east of the Georgia coast across north Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a deep trough over the Canadian Maritimes and the western Atlantic, with upstream ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
844 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 Shower chances increase tonight into Sunday with a crossing cold front.
/issued 306 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight into Sunday. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken across the lower Texas coast Sunday but breezy conditions will continue across the coastal sections of deep south Texas this evening.
This evening, a strong southwesterly flow has set up between high pressure that's centered off the southeast coast and a slow-moving cold front that has set up north of the Ohio River.
A weak cold front may make it into the Abilene (KABI) are my mid to late afternoon on Sunday but given the uncertainty, will leave this wind shift out of the forecast for now. This will result in strong heating across the area especially the Concho Valley where temperatures should climb into the lower 100s or possibly higher.
537 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 Shower chances increase tonight into Sunday with a crossing cold front.
Elsewhere, a ridge-valley split will develop with minimum temps in the l-m60s in the higher elevations, with u50s-a60 in valley locations. However, with southerly flow in place and a still mostly clear sky, expect a similar day as highs peak in the low to mid 80s. An upper trough dropping from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will attempt to send a weak front into Kentucky and Tennessee Sunday evening into Sunday night.
647 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 00Z TAFS High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will maintain light southerly flow over the region through the night. /issued 320 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ Sfc analysis this afternoon shows high pressure lingering over the sern CONUS, keeping us in an onshore low-level flow which has led to dewpoints up to the 60s across the forecast area today. Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging aloft remaining in place. Warm, dry (but muggier) conditions will linger into the early work week as high pressure to our east remains in control while weak ridging holds aloft.
955 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
Temperatures warming into the lower 70s in the warm sector will allow for 500 to 1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE to develop by the early afternoon. A few initial storms that develop from eastern Garfield County east to the North Dakota border will have a brief window for marginally severe hail before the forcing from the cold front congeals everything into a line of storms. The front moves to the east Sunday Night while the trough moves north into the Canadian Prairies and becomes a closed low.
/Issued 219 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ Warm/breezy conditions this afternoon with temperatures running in the lower to mid 80s at most locations. Weak cold front, currently located over east-central KS/west-central MO, will sag south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas State line tonight.
Upper low continues to push a cold front into the Pacific northwest early this evening. Cooler temps with highs in the upper 50s and 60s.
This evening, a strong southwesterly flow has set up between high pressure that's centered off the southeast coast and a slow-moving cold front that has set up north of the Ohio River. A cold front will move very slowly north to south across Middle TN after 00Z.
307 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 A cold frontal boundary will move east of the region today with clearing skies. However, a secondary cold front will move through the area Monday with a few spotty showers.
352 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 Today and tonight: Early morning surface analysis still had an 1019mb ridge nosing west along the Gulf coast states. This ridge will weaken today but try to remain stout enough across our CWA to not allow a stalling cold front to drop into our northern most zones by Monday morning. Model consensus stalls the cold front across northern Mississippi late tonight and keeps the associated precipitation north of our CWA through the period. The forecast for today and tonight will remain one of persistence with dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will again top out in the mid 80s at most locations and tonight the increase in humidity will help keep morning lows in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures will be cool to near normal today and then many valleys will fall to near freezing overnight. Monday will start an extended drier and warmer period.
Upglide strengthens ahead of an approaching warm front. Southerly low level flow picks up on the backside of the high pressure and ahead of the approaching wave. Combination of modest WAA at H85 (temps warm about 5C over today) and more sunshine should translate to highs in the lower 70s. The moisture draw up the High Plains pushes dew points into the lower 50s. A deep upper low near Hudson Bay anchors a large trough over the Eastern U. this week while a ridge builds along the Pacific coast.
1114 PM EDT Sat May 2 2020 High pressure will cross the region overnight.
A weak cold front will sag south toward the I-20 corridor this morning while eventually mixing out. If the surface cold front this morning is a little quicker and cooler than expected, temperatures across the southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains may have to be adjusted cooler later this afternoon. Though cooler this afternoon than previous couple of days, we'll still be running around 10 degrees above normal. Hot weather returns for one more day on Monday as surface wind switches back to the west, the dryline moves east into the Rolling Plains, and we may get a boost from weak compressional warming ahead of the next cold front moving into the region.
In the lower troposphere, northeast winds prevailed across the Central Plains, and the surface wind strength today was a bit stronger than forecast. Any instability to a boundary layer-based parcel will remain on the higher terrain through tonight and into Sunday. The wildcard on Sunday will be degree of stratus cloud cover, since the low level winds will be veered out a little more from the south, drawing up some increased Gulf of Mexico moisture. The cooler airmass behind this front/outflow boundary should recover enough late in the day Monday to allow temperatures to reach upper 70s/near 80F, despite the breezy northerly component wind.
High pressure will remain over the region tonight through much of the day Sunday, keeping conditions dry and mild. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s tonight, with highs on Sunday ranging from the lower 60s northeast to the lower 70s west of the Missouri River. By Monday morning, a vertically stacked area of low pressure will be present across southern Alberta Canada.
1116 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 (This evening through Sunday) As deep/strong cyclone shifts eastward across the northern Plains and southern Canada today, cold front will progress through central and southern Plains tonight and Sunday. The 12Z model guidance is cooler (10 to 15 degF) across western, northern, and central Oklahoma for Sunday, with more post-frontal cloud cover expected. Rain chances may increase some Sunday evening and night as stalled front begins to return north as a warm front and weak lift commences.
Following a round of stratus this morning, some high clouds and convective debris from the Big Bend will be found spilling over the ridge axis to our west, but these won't be enough to stop highs from ending up 5-10 degrees above normal.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface across the High Plains will get a reinforcing nudge in the wake of the upper disturbance as northeasterly winds become more northerly this morning. There will be another round of thunderstorms developing over the High Plains of northeast Colorado and Wyoming this afternoon with storms spreading east into Nebraska and far northwest Kansas again this evening. Model soundings show the low level moisture return deepening through the night sufficiently for the development of some drizzle and patchy fog over parts of central and south central Kansas, and possibly farther west into southwest Kansas, toward Monday morning.
A broad trough across the northern and central Great Basin has a distinct disturbance located from northwest Utah into southeast Idaho. Models have come into better agreement on location of heaviest rainfall and the highest POPS. As the main upper trough moves across, a Pacific cold front will sweep through the area. Highs cooler from the low to mid 60s north, to the upper 60s southwest.
At the surface, a frontal boundary bisects the CWA in between high pressure over NE and low pressure over northern TX. CAMs continue to develop precip as early as 23Z along the frontal boundary near the I- 70 corridor; however, soundings are dry in the low-levels. Any rain or storms that develop should move out of the area by mid- morning with skies clearing out for the afternoon as high pressure briefly passes over northeast KS. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s. We will continue to monitor the potential for redevelopment of storms in the afternoon along the warm front associated with the low; however, placement of the boundary is the biggest factor in whether or not this will impact the CWA.
Nighttime lows will sit near normal values in the low to mid 60s. The ridge extending across the peninsula will provide dry and warm conditions. The ridge will somewhat by Tue, but remain to a lessened degree over Central FL. By Wed night, an area of low pressure exiting the Mid- Atlc coast will drag a rather frontal boundary across the area the area late Wed or early Thu. Winds quickly back to onshore out of the Northeast behind the boundary, with only a briefly cooler conditions Thu night. A transitory area of high pressure wl re-develop across the region to round out the week. High pressure over the region will maintain favorable boating conditions today. Favorable open water conditions into the middle of the week as high pressure meanders acrs the GOMex/Wrn Atlc.
/22/ Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s east to the lower 60s west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s west to upper 50s east while highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 80s.
Elsewhere, a ridge-valley split will develop with minimum temps in the l-m60s in the higher elevations, with u50s-a60 in valley locations. However, with southerly flow in place and a still mostly clear sky, expect a similar day as highs peak in the low to mid 80s. An upper trough dropping from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley will attempt to send a weak front into Kentucky and Tennessee Sunday evening into Sunday night. For this reason, do not expect any appreciable air mass change as highs in the lower 80s will be common again. This feature should lift back to our north as a warm front Monday night, bringing an end to precipitation chances briefly.
MVFR ceilings are expected to return after 11z as a cold front drops Swrd into Nrn AR and stalls. Tonight Through Monday An upper ridge will be weakening somewhat over the middle part of the country tonight. A cold front in the Plains will continue to move slowly south and enter north Arkansas Sunday evening.
Dry conditions are expected until later in the week when a strong upper low dives southeast across the region.
For this afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 80s for most of the region with areas north of I-10 and west of I-45 possibly reaching the low 90s. For Monday afternoon, temperatures in the low 90s could expand a little further east and south. For the coastal counties, temperatures look to remain in the low to mid 80s for both days. Monday night will probably end up being the warmest night of the week with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for most of the area.
Cooler conditions will return behind this system, with another round of showers and storms Monday and Monday night. Further north, lighter showers have been persistent from southeast Iowa into Illinois just south of I-80, and this should continue past midnight until a secondary trough passes through the area. A cold front will continue to slowly move south across central Illinois this evening.
Further north, a cold front is slowly sagging southward into extreme northern South Dakota. Today: Aforementioned cold front will stall along a line from Huron to Pipestone and Jackson by the middle of the day. Temperatures behind this boundary will be slightly cooler, and stuck in the upper 60s. A few of the high resolution models are hinting at a narrow corridor of lift along a weak convergence zone near this boundary.
335 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure was expanding over south-central Canada into the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. For tonight, high pressure sliding into the Northern Great Lakes will force a backdoor cold front into the area, picking up momentum as it moves over the cold waters of Lake Michigan. Previous Discussion: Key Messages: 1) Several chances of precipitation with cooler weather to start the work week. Much of Monday will be dry thanks to easterly flow from the departing high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Not a great deal of precipitation is expected across our area, with current blended guidance favoring the highest amounts approaching a quarter of an inch at this time.
VFR through this afternoon at all sites as high pressure prevails, Mostly mid and high clouds expected as increasing southwest flow today.
202 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances increase tonight into Sunday with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Brief periods of light showers in the ridges may occur through Monday morning as low-level moisture lingers and orographic lift occurs under NW flow. As dry air quickly advance from the north mid- Monday as high pressure builds, quiet conditions should prevail.
Ridging will continue to dominate the local weather over the next 24 hours with a dry airmass and fairly light winds.
Skies are mostly clear and a cold front is situated from KIND-KSTL-KOKC.
Mid-level ridging remains in place aloft while a moderate pressure gradient remains at the surface as high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico interacts with weak low pressure extending from the Colorado front range to the Texas panhandle.
314 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances continue today, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather is then expected through at least Monday night as high pressure builds across the region.
Surface maps and observations place a N/S oriented cold front over SE Oregon this evening. Instability and moisture ahead of an upper trough and cold front will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of this afternoon. The cold front will be accompanied by gusty winds as it moves across southeast Oregon this evening and southwest Idaho late this evening through early Sunday morning. Showers may linger north of McCall and along the ID/NV border while a drier air mass arrives behind the exiting trough/cold front. Patchy frost is possible in the lower valleys Sunday night - including the Treasure and Western Magic Valleys - where lows are expected to be in the mid- upper 30s. Dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and light winds are expected on Monday as an upper ridge moves into the region.
/Issued 840 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020/ Scattered thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front sags into northeast Oklahoma and possibly into far northwest Arkansas through Sunday morning. The scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to the north of the cold front in a zone of isentropic lift across southeast Kansas and move into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning.
This evening a mid level trough moving across northern Missouri will be the focus for a few elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm while farther south across central Missouri an 850mb cold front will be the main focus for elevated showers and thunderstorms tonight with MUCAPE near 1000 to 1500 J/kg. A transitory ridge will move across the area Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Monday morning as the ridge pushes east a warm front will develop across southern Missouri which will bring a chance of showers through the day.
Weakening lift and dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will again mean that the precipitation likely won't make it to the surface. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
359 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 ZCZC MIAWRKHGW 030755 TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM Short Term (Today through Monday evening): Expansive high pressure to the north of the area will continue eastward into the western Atlantic waters, providing subsidence and generally dry conditions across South Florida today and Monday. A warming trend can be expected as the ridge axis becomes situated across the northern portions of South Florida on Monday. By Monday, maximum temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast should climb into the lower 90s.