Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
914 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A more "classic" mid/late September night with a cooler and drier air mass in place in wake of the frontal passage that moved through the region earlier this week. A mostly clear sky this evening has allowed for good radiational cooling as temperatures (as of 02z) have fallen into the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s may allow for temperatures to drop off another 15-20 degrees by early Saturday morning, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Not much change in the forecast over the weekend, as high pressure remains entrenched over Alabama and Georgia as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
536 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Warm and muggy conditions across the area with approaching upper trough to the west. As the trough works through after 06Z, should see thunderstorm chances increase. Best chances for a stronger storm will be west of the James River with marginal Trough moves through the region fairly quickly, which should limit the heavy rainfall potential through the overnight hours.
With high pressure nearly overhead, light to variable winds.
601 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Water vapor shows deep upper low over northern UT/southeast ID. Upper low shifts into western ND Saturday morning, then into southern Manitoba by late afternoon.
1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing large scale flow aloft consisting of a large high pressure dome situated over the eastern half of the CONUS along with a well amplified longwave trough across the western half and an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basic. Models are in agreement large scale pattern will become more progressive in nature beginning tonight when Great Basin upper low gets ejected and moves toward the western Dakotas late tonight. With this, synoptic scale lift increases over the region in conjunction with associated cold front approaching the CWA.
A more "classic" mid/late September night with a cooler and drier air mass in place in wake of the frontal passage that moved through the region earlier this week. A mostly clear sky this evening has allowed for good radiational cooling as temperatures (as of 02z) have fallen into the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s may allow for temperatures to drop off another 15-20 degrees by early Saturday morning, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Not much change in the forecast over the weekend, as high pressure remains entrenched over Alabama and Georgia as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
High pressure sits to the east and VFR conditions and southerly winds for all TAF sites.
The storm system that brought precipitation and cooler temperatures to the area will exit to our east overnight.
247 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Temperatures have fallen back into the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with ridges holding in the mid 70s. Temperatures have fallen back into the lower 80s after topping out in the mid to upper 80s earlier this afternoon. Overnight lows still look reasonable based on cross over temperatures in the low 60s. More of the same in the short term, with much warmer than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather on tap for eastern Kentucky through the weekend.
437 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Upper level high pressure was over the southeast CONUS early this morning. Ample sunshine under the upper level ridge will result in warm afternoons with highs well into the 80s, but light winds and relatively dry air will allow for an appreciable cool-down tonight, with lows largely in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
1256 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure will extend from the southeastern US to Bermuda through the weekend. Low temps will drop into the lower to mid 50s again, with possibly some upper 40s in the usual rural cold spots, thanks to excellent radiational cooling. Afternoon high temperatures will be a 3 to 6 degrees warmer, topping out in the middle 80s by Saturday afternoon.
215 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
1138 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
157 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 07z surface analysis had low over south central ND with cold front into western NE. Water vapour showed upper low over central MT, which is starting to lift east-northeast. Cold front accelerating eastward reinforced by convective outflow. Upper low main concern this forecast. Today/tonight, upper low continues to move east-northeast with lingering trough/cyclonic flow into the Dakotas.
Elsewhere the region should remain dry as temperatures fall into the 50s with 40s in the higher elevations.
A cold front is progged to slowly ooze through Kansas today and extend from northeast New Mexico to southeastern Nebraska by this evening. A second shot of cooler air will move in after midnight shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s across west central Kansas to mid 60s across south central Kansas.
Latest local radar continues to show a regeneration of thunderstorms over south central ND, near the proximity of a slow moving cold front which is parallel to the upper flow. Cold front located from just west of Minot south to Glen Ullin. These storms will be more attached with the upper level low and stronger forced ascent that is progged to approach later tonight through Saturday. Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front similar to CAM model forecast. Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.
1036 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Warm and muggy conditions across the area with approaching upper trough to the west. As the trough works through after 06Z, should see thunderstorm chances increase. Best chances for a stronger storm will be west of the James River with marginal Trough moves through the region fairly quickly, which should limit the heavy rainfall potential through the overnight hours.
1256 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2019 High pressure will extend from the southeastern US to Bermuda through the weekend. Low temps will drop into the lower to mid 50s again, with possibly some upper 40s in the usual rural cold spots, thanks to excellent radiational cooling. Afternoon high temperatures will be a 3 to 6 degrees warmer, topping out in the middle 80s by Saturday afternoon.
325 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Early this morning the upper trough was located from Montana into Arizona with a southwesterly upper flow present across the Plains and a ridge over the Great Lakes. A cold front extended from the Dakotas to low pressure in eastern Colorado. Models are in agreement for convective development during the late afternoon and early evening hours along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary.
309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Today & tonight: Warm & mostly dry afternoon can be expected, with the exception in the far south & southwest in the Highway 84 corridor & extreme southern portions of northeast Louisiana. Dry air is entrenched over the area with mid-level ridge axis centered over or just east of our area. High pressure at the surface & aloft over & east of our region will keep subsidence & drier air locked in the region.
345 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Heavy rainfall this weekend and timing of closed upper low main concerns this forecast. As we go into Saturday night, an approaching longwave trough and associated surface front combine to set the stage for bands of heavy precip once again.
Further east, widespread stratus continues to develop under the low-lvl stable inversion. Temperatures will fall into the lower 50s, a considerable change from the lows the past week.
Mid level low/trough swing northeast into western North Dakota later this morning, north central and northeastern ND this afternoon, exiting into southern Manitoba/Ontario tonight.
309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Isolated showers and storms are possible this morning across portions of southeast Missouri, then an upper level ridge should push far enough west to give us dry conditions this afternoon into tonight.
Cooler air filtering in behind the cold front that moved through the region overnight will keep temperatures on the cooler side. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the Pine Ridge region to the upper 70s south of I-80.
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A cold front pushed in overnight bringing clearing conditions and cooler temperatures. High temperatures for today will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper low that was in place over Montana will turn into an open wave and progress into the Dakotas through the day.
Other than that, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A dry forecast continues today as high pressure remains centered over Alabama. Highs today will generally be a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, reaching into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in several locations.
An overall lull in the activity should occur for much of tonight, with coverage again likely to be expand in advance of an approaching cold front during the day Sunday and spreading southeastward with the front into Sunday night.
Streamer SHRA gradually wane by late morning as the low level jet weakens, then SHRA/TSRA redevelop with heating this afternoon. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over Texas with a trough to the west. The subtropical ridge will remain in control over us during this period, but models show some slight height falls in the mid-levels. Strong southeasterly flow in the lower levels may produce some streamer showers overnight.
Oklahoma and north Texas are ahead of a western trough/cold front, with a moderate surface pressure gradient across the region. /issued 345 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ Heavy rainfall this weekend and timing of closed upper low main concerns this forecast.
Temperatures Saturday night could be near or below freezing for some High Country locations.
A dry forecast continues today as high pressure remains centered over Alabama. Highs today will generally be a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, reaching into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in several locations. The warm and dry pattern will continue Sunday as high pressure remains anchored aloft.
300 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Fair and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with limited night and morning low clouds and fog near the coast.
Cooler air filtering in behind the cold front that moved through the region overnight will keep temperatures on the cooler side. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the Pine Ridge region to the upper 70s south of I-80. Dry weather returns on Sunday as high pressure builds into the central Plains. Cooler temperatures will also continue into Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 70s across the entire forecast area.
As for the remainder of the day, temperatures will push into the lower 70's and the lower 80's in some of the valleys west of the Cascades. Sunday will turn wetter with a low and weak cold front approaching the coast. It looks like the cold front will move onshore during the late morning hours. 25 inches of rain with the higher totals located farther north in the Umpqua Valley and along the coastal range. There is still a slight chance for some thunderstorms on Sunday as this low moves through.
Further east, widespread stratus continues to develop under the low-lvl stable inversion. Temperatures will fall into the lower 50s, a considerable change from the lows the past week. Sunday: A large upper trough continues to pivot through the Northern Plains on Sunday.
A very moist subtropical plume of moisture will continue directly overhead while our region holds in the right jet entrance region of the subtropical jet; upper low will spin across the northern Rockies into the northern plains today but the trailing upper trough won't pass east until Sunday afternoon. With passage of the mid level trough Sunday and approach of a low amplitude upper level ridge, flow aloft will veer and dry and shower chances drop.
519 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 07z surface analysis had low over south central ND with cold front into western NE. Water vapour showed upper low over central MT, which is starting to lift east-northeast. Cold front accelerating eastward reinforced by convective outflow. Upper low main concern this forecast. Today/tonight, upper low continues to move east-northeast with lingering trough/cyclonic flow into the Dakotas.
High pressure will develop over the region this afternoon, allowing conditions to warm and dry. High pressure overhead will allow fog to burn off by late morning, as temperatures warm above the seasonal average.
Upper level high pressure was over the southeast CONUS early this morning. Ample sunshine under the upper level ridge will result in warm afternoons with highs well into the 80s, but light winds and relatively dry air will allow for an appreciable cool-down tonight, with lows largely in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Morning sounding at the Cape shows a very shallow layer of moisture in the lower levels, with much drier air above inversion at 800mb. A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect, and have extended the High Surf Advisory along the coast of east central Florida through Sunday.
A cold front is progged to slowly ooze through Kansas today and extend from northeast New Mexico to southeastern Nebraska by this evening. A second shot of cooler air will move in after midnight shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s across west central Kansas to mid 60s across south central Kansas. High pressure builds into the area Sunday as the aforementioned cold front continues to sag south of the area.
High pressure will arrive Sunday night and bring and end to precipitation chances.
High pressure across the region will result in quiet weather for us. /10/ Prior discussion below: Today & tonight: Warm & mostly dry afternoon can be expected, with the exception in the far south & southwest in the Highway 84 corridor & extreme southern portions of northeast Louisiana. Dry air is entrenched over the area with mid-level ridge axis centered over or just east of our area. High pressure at the surface & aloft over & east of our region will keep subsidence & drier air locked in the region.
Sfc front/dry line will continue to move only very slow through the afternoon, but should pick up forward momentum by mid evening as mid level trof starts lifting northeast out of the Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. The main threat from the later activity will probably be strong wind as mid level winds from approaching trof overspread the CWA, and force any cells into line segments. Behind the front, conditions will turn cooler and less humid for Saturday/Saturday night. The entire system will continue to shift east-northeast, with the cold front near ABR to HON by 12Z, and then the SD/MN border by 18Z Saturday. Dry and cooler air will settle in for Sunday, with highs near 70 degrees.
High pressure will continue tonight with clear skies.
This relatively deep moisture will persist through the forecast period, and when combined with the approach from the east of a weak inverted 500 mb trough, isolated showers will result across the BRO CWFA.
446 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Ridging has become re-established acrs the area. Aloft, the ridge covers much of the SE CONUS, centered over AL/MS. Meanwhile, at the sfc, high pres is centered over the Carolinas, ridging southwest to the NW Gulf coast. This ridging pattern is expected to prevail for the next several days. 24 The ridge aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to build west today. With a little less in the way of cloud cover, daytime temperatures should be a little warmer than the past few days, with highs around 90 degrees this aftn. Drier air associated with the mid/upper ridge will spread westward into the region through the weekend, resulting in a moisture gradient acrs the area.
407 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Dry and cooler conditions will occur today as the trough continues to depart the region. Latest guidance came up a bit with the low temperatures tonight into Sunday morning across the northern Yampa River valley. This puts low temps hovering around the freezing mark in Craig and Steamboat while the majority of those zones down towards Meeker remain in the mid 30s. Also, temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 30s in Craig, Meeker and Steamboat where a Freeze Warning remains in effect through 9 am. There may be enough mixing overnight to keep temps near to slightly above freezing due to the upper level jet overhead. A transitory ridge of high pressure slides over the region Sunday, providing for a slight bump up in temperatures and another dry and sunny afternoon.
953 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure continues to be in place across the area today. Dewpoints look to drop into the lower to mid 50s late this afternoon with mixing. The warm and dry pattern will continue Sunday as high pressure remains anchored aloft.
Another break in the precipitation is then anticipated followed by redevelopment of more showers and tstms later this afternoon and evening as the southern end of an upper level trof of low pressure heads across the region late today and tonight. This feature, plus a leeside surface trof located over eastern CO and eastern NM acting as a low level focusing feature, plenty of moisture, an unstable atmosphere, and sufficient shear warrants the possibility that some storms may become strong to severe, with wind gusts to around 60 mph to 65 mph and hail up to the size of quarters to perhaps half dollars the primary hazards.
/DC/ Today & tonight: Warm & mostly dry afternoon can be expected, with the exception in the far south & southwest in the Highway 84 corridor & extreme southern portions of northeast Louisiana. Dry air is entrenched over the area with mid-level ridge axis centered over or just east of our area. High pressure at the surface & aloft over & east of our region will keep subsidence & drier air locked in the region.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing slowly southeast across northwest Kansas. A cold front is progged to slowly ooze through Kansas today and extend from northeast New Mexico to southeastern Nebraska by this evening. A second shot of cooler air will move in after midnight shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s across west central Kansas to mid 60s across south central Kansas. High pressure builds into the area Sunday as the aforementioned cold front continues to sag south of the area.
330 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Multiple weak short wave troughs are currently translating northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri. As we head into this evening, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should actually decrease for awhile with weak short wave ridging overspreading the area. A synoptic scale trough should then begin to push a surface cold front southeast through eastern Kansas and into western Missouri Sunday afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be quite variable across the area given the expected rainfall and passing cold front.
With upper ridging expected to remain centered over AL/GA today, and extend W into portions of the Lower MS Valley, SSE bndry lyr-H700 winds will allow for the seabreeze to gradually spread NNW into Cntrl LA this afternoon, with additional but isolated diurnal convection possible across portions of Deep E and the Wrn sections of E TX where higher theta-e air will exist.
Meanwhile, dynamics aloft will be relatively favorable with an increasingly difluent southwest flow and a strong +100kt jet core lifting northeast across the high plains with a right entrance region setting up generally across western Kansas, virtually straddling the stalled frontal boundary. Cooler air will surge into western Kansas early Sunday morning behind a secondary and much stronger cold front.
More of the same is the main story as high pressure continues to dominate. A zonal flow pattern will begin to take hold across much of the CONUS for the work week, allowing for the strong pressure gradient to weaken and gusty winds to subside, but high pressure will remain in charge. Overall, conditions should remain warm and dry, but more comfortable than they have been for the past several months due to the lower humidity values.
344 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The majority of convection this afternoon has been focused across lower acadiana where a plume of deeper layer moisture is wrapping around a westward building upper ridge. The aforementioned upper ridge is progged to build across the area overnight into early Sunday accompanied by drier mid level air. While this is expected to effectively cap convection across south central Louisiana, scattered convection is expected to develop around the western periphery of the ridge (in the higher moisture environment) during the afternoon hours.
256 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure will be across the area tonight and slide south of the region on Sunday.
Ridging will bring stable weather through tonight. A cold front sweeps across the region tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing a good chance of rain showers, especially over the mountains.
Guidance continues to favor isolated shra across the higher terrain this afternoon, thus touched up those pops a bit, although yielding no sig changes. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 89 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 86 58 / 0 0 0 0.
Upper low has pushed east of the area taking majority of the forcing for precipitation with it. Unstable airmass under the residual upper trof is producing isolated to scattered showers and even a few weak thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Ridge builds in tomorrow for sunny and dry conditions.
With decent southerly flow across the region, low level moisture will persist with PWs in excess of 2 inches ahead of cold front that will begin to slowly sink south across forecast area tonight.
132 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure is stacked across Ga and the Carolinas with ridging extending westward across the mid state. By late Sunday night, the upper high becomes suppressed to our south. Westerlies will then allow a cold front to approach from the northwest.
An upper level short wave trough in the broad southwest flow aloft will approach the Panhandles from New Mexico which will help to touch off showers and thunderstorms. This area is closest to the ejecting short wave trough and closest to the deepest moisture and this area has had the heaviest rain over the last couple of days.
1134 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Dry and cooler conditions will occur today as the trough continues to depart the region. Latest guidance came up a bit with the low temperatures tonight into Sunday morning across the northern Yampa River valley. This puts low temps hovering around the freezing mark in Craig and Steamboat while the majority of those zones down towards Meeker remain in the mid 30s. Also, temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 30s in Craig, Meeker and Steamboat where a Freeze Warning remains in effect through 9 am. There may be enough mixing overnight to keep temps near to slightly above freezing due to the upper level jet overhead. A transitory ridge of high pressure slides over the region Sunday, providing for a slight bump up in temperatures and another dry and sunny afternoon.
914 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Fair and warmer weather is expected this weekend, with limited night and morning low clouds and fog near the coast.
The best coverage should set up across northeast OK by Sunday morning as the cold front pushes east.