Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL ND WITH A TROUGH CONNECTING IT TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ND LOW TO KGCC TO SOUTHWEST WY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET EVENTUALLY CONNECTING WITH INCREASING 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SEEMS LIKE A BORDERLINE EVENT FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND COASTAL AREAS SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVERTOP COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS.
THAT WINDOW WILL BEGIN TO SHUT WITH SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN PANHANDLE AT 12Z TO NWRN OKLA AND SCNTL/SWRN KS BY END OF DAY. HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA.
IFR conditions will be common across NE OK into western AR with a slight improvement toward KMLC as the sfc warm front attempts to lift north of this area.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-80S BY THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MAIN SYNOPTIC PICTURE HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA.
1212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BETWEEN 6-9 PM AS THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES WITH COINCIDENT SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW LCLS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ALLIANCE TO CHEYENNE TO CRAIG COLORADO AS OF 18Z. PRECIP COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Short term model data are consistent with the GFS/Canadian persistent trends showing a more intense batch of warm advection precipitation associated with the low level jet axis moving northeastward from south central Oklahoma into southwest Missouri after midnight tonight, in advance of the main convective band along the dryline/cold front. This should provide the first batch of heavier rainfall, followed by that along the dryline/cold front closer to dawn. Severe weather concerns will be focused on the dryline/cold front convection, with a squall line likely to move eastward through the morning hours tomorrow. Temperature wise, both tonight and tomorrow will feature non- diurnal temperature trends with lows tonight likely to happen this evening due to the warm advection with the northward moving warm front and highs tomorrow during the morning hours due to the cold advection following the front.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-80S BY THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MAIN SYNOPTIC PICTURE HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
224 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE'LL EASILY HIT THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER THE WEST. AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.
1139 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA TODAY WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES FROM SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
/ISSUED 1053 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS THIS MORNING. LIKE THE CURRENT HIGH RES MODELS WHICH ONLY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
Thunderstorms are likely tonight as short range models indicate a strong closed off upper level low shifting east out of the Four Corners Region into the Central/Southern Rockies and the Western High Plains.
232 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN/IA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. LOOK FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO FOCUS SOME OF THE HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WAS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER IN THE DAY WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUED ACROSS THE STATE. SO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
241 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM EASTERN CANADA.
THE 16/12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR KTUS HAS TRENDED TWO DEGREES WARMER FOR THE MINIMUM TEMP FOR TUE MORNING SINCE 15/12Z.
A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING NW CA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN TO DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS NORTHERLY COLD FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEVELOPING FOG AND A SLIGHT BREEZE WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH OF INTERIOR MENDOCINO TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALREADY OUT. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEHIND A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN OUR AREA AND HOW MUCH RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
309 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 This afternoon, water vapor imagery showed the poignant upper trough axis rotating over the Four Corners Region while embedded vorticity maxima was noted lifting north and east from the panhandles and southern Oklahoma. Effective shear 0-6 KM will quickly increase after 00Z with the approaching trough, from 45 kts at midnight to near 60 kts by 6 AM. This amount is maximized in the lower levels as sfc winds back to the southeast at 15 to 20 mph overnight. Light showers remain possible with the highest chances over east central and far northeast Kansas. Lesser amounts of precip and higher mixing heights help to warm highs into the lower and middle 60s.
344 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 CLOSED LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE HUDSON BAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER TROUGH.
332 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE FOUR-CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. AN ACTIVE AREA OF PRECIP EXISTS IN THE WRAP AROUND BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN/WESTERN FLANKS OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST UTAH BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS EXISTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AT TIME. THE TRAILING MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK TO MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH.
146 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRONG LARGE- SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FORM KANSAS TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
230 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 THE CONUS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTER WITH THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. A TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. THE SYSTEMS THAT ARE OF IMPORTANCE TO THE KEYS AREA ARE THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. AND THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. CLOSER TO HOME WE HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE LOWER KEYS WHILE SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS AT THIS HOUR.
1255 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
1235 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.
301 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
AND THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN OREGON IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE SNOW LEVEL RISES TO 6000-6500 FEET. THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT WILL RENEW RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS JUXTAPOSED BY DISTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A WARM/MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.
627 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
212 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING IN GOOD GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWN THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUTWARD FROM THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL BRING EXTENSIVE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION GENERATING WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT 48 HRS. WARANAUSKAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY.
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS PROVIDED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW. AND THE CORRESPONDING PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POPS WERE CONFINED TO ERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UNDER A CLOUDY SKY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. IF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CAN IN FACT CLEAR OFF SOME/ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS REDEFINED.
That may change Saturday night as the upper level trough out west begins to make a move to the northeast.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IS COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN OREGON BUT MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEACHAM TO JOHN DAY. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS SHOWS A LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
552 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FA TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY THRU THE WEEKEND.
439 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY COLORADO INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS IOWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING REACHING A STORM LAKE TO CHARITON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE STATE.
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA TODAY. THE AREA TO SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BENEATH AND DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM NEAR BERMUDA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING. WARMER YET. SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH LOWS CENTERED IN THE LOWER 60S.
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH- CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING JUST EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE BULK OF TODAYS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE COLD POOL OF AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS AS WELL. A MUCH REDUCED CHC OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY FLAT FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS TODAYS UPPER LOW SCOOTS TO THE EAST.
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST AND A SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING FROM EAST TO WEST INTO LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE TRENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN/CNTRL WI. STILL AN ONSHORE COMPONENT SO COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE HIGH OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO. AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA AND A RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING FOG TO BEGIN DISSIPATING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IN THE WEST DEEPENS AND EXPANDS SUCH THAT THE FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A 120 KNOT JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BROAD FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO PULL THAT TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. S/W RIDGING ALOFT WILL DAMPEN SOME TONIGHT AS A WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. BUT CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE. AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
125 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
454 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE A RETREATING DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING CONVECTION INITIALLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE BEEN IN PLACE TODAY. HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA IN THE MORNING WHICH DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING TROUGH EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF IOWA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS KEEPING TEMPS VERY MILD THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY BUT MAIN LIFT EARLY TODAY WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE COULD ALLOW SPOTTY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS MAXES FOR TODAY.
329 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SATURATED LAYER IS RATHER THICK AND AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO ND WITH BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE 70S.
309 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLED FROM N TO S OVER CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH AND SPLITTING LOW IS STILL WELL TO WEST OF HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA. BUT HELP PULL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP AID THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES EAST AS WELL.
20 NORTHRIDGE. 39 NORDHOFF RIDGE. SBA SOUTH COAST MARIA YGNACIO RIDGE.
312 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
407 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 OVERVIEW: BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BOUNDED BY TROUGHINESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING INTO THE CWA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHOWERS END W-E BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY END AS DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE IDAHO- UTAH BORDER. UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE AIR NEARLY SATURATED. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
502 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY.