Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY IN THIS HIGHLY CHANGING EVENT. WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER NAM/GFS HIGHS THAT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S OVER MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN LOWS REACHED THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND PEOPLE SHOULD PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR THE MUCH COOLER LOWS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, ICE PELLETS WERE ADDED AT THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE LEVEL TO BORDER AREAS WITH KANSAS, STILL COUNTING ON TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
125 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET TO GIVE IT A PUSH. AND THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY SCOOT ESEWD AND OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET AT ONSET. WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED. THINK THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN EVENTS CAN CAUSE MORE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS THAN HEAVIER EVENTS. THINK MOST OF THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU. MID/UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THU EVENING THROUGH SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. KETCHAM A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. LOSS OF CLOUD ICE MAY TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TYPE BACK TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
919 AM MST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE WEST COAST RIDGE INTO ARIZONA.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS WARMER/MOIST AIR RETURNS. NEXT IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT OVERSPREADS THE SRN PLAINS TOMORROW AND BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SERN TX AND ALLOW CURRENT FRONT OFF THE COAST TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT LIFTS INLAND AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WHICH WILL CHANGE QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THEN FOCUS TURNS WEST AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS WELL.
THEN WE COULD GET SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ALOFT: SOME TEMPORARY PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WILL OCCUR AS THE PERSISTENT E PAC TROF MOVES ONSHORE SAT AND INTO THE CNTRL USA SUN- MON. THIS TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN USA BEYOND MON. WITH THE E PAC TROF/WRN N AMERICA RIDGE REDEVELOPING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE SAT NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF. A PAC COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THRU SUN AS THIS LOW CONTS TO ORGANIZE OVER OK/KS. WPC HAS THIS LOW OVER CNTRL MO AT 12Z/MON WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND THE 00Z/12Z GEM. FRI: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON DEPARTURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT THE THERMAL TROF SHIFTING E IS A GOOD SIGN. COLD SECTOR WITH THERMAL TROF PASSING THRU.
321 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL LA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVE. LGT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. WHICH IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARING LIKELY AS FREEZING LVLS FALL TO AROUND 1000 FT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL AREAS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE RUC13/ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THE SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON THE LOWS TONIGHT.
WE DO HAVE SOME LEFTOVER FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE. HOWEVER DID TRANSITION TO AN ADV GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE.
LATER TONIGHT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AROUND 21/06Z. /ISSUED 1122 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AREA. /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT TEXARKANA.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND END BY 02Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA.
200 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HELP LIMIT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MESO-LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING SO THE AFTERNOON COLD FRONT SHOULD EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW. THIS COLD FRONT HAD PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SW WYOMING THIS MORNING. A CHANGE IN PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS LIKE ITS IN THE CARDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THU. BUT THE NAM DOES SHOW A WEAK BUT STILL MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN IN EARNEST AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
Cooler storm systems early in the week will bring valley snow across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and across the northern mountains tonight through Wednesday night. An area of snow wrapping around this low pressure will impact the KGEG area TAF sites through 14Z-15Z and then end.
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH A FEW MESONET SITES RECORDING 29-30F EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REMAIN AS SNOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND 25 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A DECAYING REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HOVERING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. WITH A RIDGE ALIGNED DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY DEPOSITION OR EVEN VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FOG AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT.
Stratus hanging tough today and temperatures shrugging to climb with temperatures remaining below freezing. There are questions on the depth and timing of saturation within the lower atmosphere which will have a bearing on the type and amount of wintry precipitation. Any snow and sleet accumulations are expected to less than an inch with only a thin glaze of ice due to freezing drizzle. Thinking patchy light wintry mix including freezing drizzle could develop as early as sunset along and west of Interstate 49 then gradually spread east making east to the Highway 65 corridor by mid to late evening. Temperatures will struggle to climb Thursday with most areas only approaching or barely climbing over the freezing mark. Again while any accumulation will be light there could be significant impact to travel particularly on untreated roads or bridges.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT GRAZING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF CROSSING THE CENTRAL U. THE SUBSEQUENT TROF. ANTICIPATE THE LOW CLDS EXPANDING EWD OVERNIGHT AS WK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALLOWS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT EWD. THE LOW CLDS WL PROBABLY STICK ARND A WHILE. BUILT THE MIN TEMP GRID WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS /WELL BLO GUIDANCE/ IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO INCLUDED A CHC OF FLURRIES WITH THE LOW CLDS. CLDS WL LINGER TOMORROW AS A WK COLD FRONT DROPS SWD INTO THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
334 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) Before another cold front pushes across West Central Texas tomorrow, southwesterly low-level, down-slope flow will help create warmer lows tonight than last night. As another cold front approaches tonight, winds from the southwest will slowly shift and come more from the west by sunrise. This down-slope flow will help maintain lows tonight mainly in the 40 to 45 range; that's much warmer than last night. For tomorrow, colder and drier air will push into and across West Central Texas, as another cold front moves across Texas.
A STRONG COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO START IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SFC TEMPS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THU. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER FROM W TO E THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES BY THU NIGHT. W TO NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP AND STRENGHEN ACROSS S TX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON.
1122 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AREA. /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ POTPOURRI OF FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF A COLD FRONT YOU ARE ON. THE COLD FRONT AS OF 11Z WAS LOCATED NEAR AN ELD. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL STALL ACROSS SE TX INTO S LA LATER TODAY AND BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 21/12Z. /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT TEXARKANA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
923 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 LEADING COLD FRONT WELL DEFINED IN MESOANALYSIS AND ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST AT MID MORNING. BEFORE STRONGER IMPULSE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO SERN TX TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR A KATY TO IAH LINE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 20Z AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLATEAUS AS WELL. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING SO THE AFTERNOON COLD FRONT SHOULD EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW. THIS COLD FRONT HAD PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SW WYOMING THIS MORNING. A CHANGE IN PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS LIKE ITS IN THE CARDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THU. BUT THE NAM DOES SHOW A WEAK BUT STILL MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN IN EARNEST AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
406 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 UPDATE AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
250 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH CLOUDY SKIES BUT DRY WEATHER FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
239 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 Snow cover and high pressure ridge axis over the Midwest this afternoon creating some trouble in the short term forecast for tonight. Models had been persistent that the clouds would redevelop throughout the day, but the ridge has been efficiently suppressing the clouds to more scattered and occasionally broken.
140 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL CREATE DRY.
Rain and snow showers will linger through this afternoon with a decreasing trend into the evening as high pressure moves in to the region. A brief period of reduced cloud cover tonight along with recent precipitation will promote the development of freezing fog tonight into Thursday morning.
Winds will continue to veer to the west/northwest tonight, ahead of a cold front set to move through southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday morning.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WHERE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO PUSH ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, WHILE WILL INCLUDE MOST OF OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
SO LOOKING AT HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN OUR WEST. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL SD BY THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH BY LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
424 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A sharp short wave trough is passing overhead now, and with clearing behind this system, westerly to southwesterly winds are increasing to above 11 kts with gusts to near 20 kts. However, the aforementioned short wave trough will induce stronger pressure rises over the Central Plains overnight.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WHERE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO PUSH ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, WHILE WILL INCLUDE MOST OF OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
144 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL CREATE DRY.
1013 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. 58 /ISSUED 621 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES THE COVERAGE AND DISSIPATION TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH LOW CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER.
WARMER AIR WAS TO THE WEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND LOW PRESSURE BACK OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES STILL HINT THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX 14-16Z THURSDAY AND 15-17Z AT WACO. 58 THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER.
1050 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 Much of the region still with a weak and broad expanse of a ridge overhead as the snow has cleared well to the east. There is little to no CAA behind this departing system, so daytime highs should be similar to or a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with widespread readings in the 20s. Despite a 1026 mb high pressure settling se from the upper MS river valley into IL and ohio river valley tonight, mostly cloudy to overcast low clouds will linger through Thu across much of IL with an extensive area of low clouds all the way west into central NE/KS along with a low level inversion trapping low clouds.
THE OTHER IMPACT FOR US WILL BE A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
Cooler storm systems early in the week will bring valley snow across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and across the northern mountains tonight through Wednesday night. This will also bring into question how much of a factor that freezing rain or sleet will be. A warm front will increase precip chances at KEAT after 08Z. This precip is expected to begin as snow and should be very wet with surface temps right around freezing. A warm tongue moving in aloft will then increase the possibility for freezing rain early Thursday morning, but there is uncertainty if surface temps will be below freezing.
934 AM PST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL CREATE DRY.
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT MORNING HOURS WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR KCLL AND KUTS. /ISSUED 923 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ LEADING COLD FRONT WELL DEFINED IN MESOANALYSIS AND ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST AT MID MORNING. BEFORE STRONGER IMPULSE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO SERN TX TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR A KATY TO IAH LINE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WITH A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ARKANSAS MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MORNING. LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH A RIDGE PRESSING DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
925 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED ON WATER LOOP THIS MORNING ONE NOW MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AND ANOTHER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE COME BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE NATURE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY START EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
1132 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1037 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NW MISSISSIPPI INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SOME MINOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED IN NW ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF I-65 AND DEWPOINTS ROSE INTO THE LOWER 30S. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL KEEP A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST IN NORTHEASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH NOON.
221 PM MST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING, BUT FOR NOW, EXPECT THOSE TO RESIDE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND SHOULD TAKE SHAPE NW-N OF THE LOW WHICH WILL CROSS NWRN AL LATE THU NIGHT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT LATE THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 33 44 40 / 90 30 70 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 29 43 37 / 100 30 60 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 28 42 38 / 100 30 60 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 26 43 34 / 90 50 30 90 NC.
241 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
In areas where forcing is strong, the column will likely saturate downward with time, resulting in an initial spurt of light sleet or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle before a transition to snow. This could either result in periods of flurries and areas of freezing drizzle, or possibly a complete lack of any precipitation if moisture is too shallow and dry air above it too significant. This temperature rise could help decrease the impact of any lingering freezing drizzle and/or snow accumulation; thus even if light precipitation lingers into the early afternoon, any impacts from it should begin to decrease.
SURROUNDING THE CWA MUCH OF THE MIDWEST HAS REMAINED STUCK IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK. TEMPERATURES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART BEHAVED WITH 2 PM READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA AS A STORM SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THINKING PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE BACK TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. EVEN RAIN AS AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. RECENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP THE MID/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING REDUCED CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH TO PINCH OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD EAST TEXAS.
A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE S/SE OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM THE W/NW BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW. GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 10PM AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO OVERNIGHT AND SWINGING INTO NRN TX BY SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL PERSIST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH A SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ANOTHER WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
WITH INVERTED TROF INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. 18Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.