Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Bermuda high pressure will remain off the coast with a Piedmont trough developing this afternoon. Moisture is limited to the lower atmosphere, and precipitable waters values range from 1. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s inland to the mid-80s at the coast as the onshore flow will keep the beaches slightly cooler. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower 70s inland, with the mid-70s at the coast. Positively-tilted 500mb trough sweeps north of the area Monday, providing more chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly closer to the coast.
236 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Today is expected to be considerably warmer than yesterday with widespread triple digit high temperatures expected and a few record highs being likely. A weak disturbance ahead of an upper level Low moving into the Pacific Northwest could set off some high based thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. On Monday the upper level Low from the Pacific tracks along the Canadian border and brings a cold front through the area. Timing on the frontal passage has been pushed back a few hours to early evening and overnight hours so kept temperatures on the high side to reflect this.
205 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from east-central MT to eastern WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with rising heights over the northern plains. Upper low spinning over southwest BC, the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper ridge continues to build as low level thermal ridge expands northeastward. Tonight, upper low moves into northern ID.
Temperatures are currently sitting in the middle to upper 70s and are on track to fall into the lower 70s inland with middle 70s along the coast. An upper trough will moves across the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley regions while an upper ridge persists to our west. This moisture combined with ascent along the sea- breeze will support isolated to scattered showers and storms on Sunday with the highest coverage occurring along southern portions of the area. Monday will be relatively similar to Sunday, but we may see a slight uptick in coverage as the base of the aforementioned upper trough digs into the Southeast. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
308 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Early morning satellite analysis places the center of a sprawling upper ridge over the Four Corners region, with a fairly widespread area of mid/upper level moisture along its eastern perimeter extending into the central plains.
257 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A brief break in the ridge will allow for slightly cooler temps today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ridging builds back in by Monday with widespread upper 90s and 100s expected.
A weak cold front will move into northern portions of Oklahoma by daybreak Sunday, with main impact expected to be a shift from southerly to northerly winds and about a 5 degree less hot high temperature on Sunday across the northern portions of Oklahoma.
The lone exception to this is for parts of southwest MN near the Buffalo Ridge, which may see a second brief round of isolated showers and storms clip by, moving south through MN mid evening. This will bring light winds and warmer temperatures as highs reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. With that and an increasing low level southerly flow prompted by a deepening trough over the western High Plains, temperatures will soar on Monday.
As high pressure settles in over the eastern CWA tonight, cannot rule out the possibility of some patchy fog along and east of the James River Valley, especially with the added moisture from todays rain. The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west Sunday and Sunday night, with warm southerly flow under the aforementioned building ridge. Massive upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains will bring heat into our part of the country as well.
In the upper levels, a large blocking ridge will continue to hold over the southwestern US through the first half of the week as an upper level trough sits over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the ridge axis is positioned north of Florida today, setting up southeasterly flow under deep tropical moisture. The gradient flow should be light enough to allow the west coast sea breeze to push inland slightly, so the highest rain chances will be expected over the interior during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
654 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Low pressure over Indiana will drift northeast into the Ohio Valley today and tonight, bringing a cold front closer to the region by late Monday.
as high pressure aloft strengthens and shifts east across the local area.
/issued 412 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): High pressure in control still will make for a persistent forecast for the Short Term period. Ridge is still building over the Four Corners region leading to breezy conditions through Monday with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Lows will be in the mid 70s as mostly clear skies will make it feel a little cooler overnight.
522 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from east-central MT to eastern WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with rising heights over the northern plains. Upper low spinning over southwest BC, the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper ridge continues to build as low level thermal ridge expands northeastward. Tonight, upper low moves into northern ID.
A flat ridge of high pressure aloft persists over northern CA. North of this a fairly robust trough is approaching Washington and British Columbia. Tonight the upper level trough well to the north of the area pushes inland.
Rain and thunder activity diminished as the low-level inverted trough that was affecting the Keys is not longer in our area. The Florida Keys are currently under partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid to lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. A high pressure centered in the Atlantic Ocean is now taking control of our sensible weather. The aforementioned high pressure system will continue to build through the week.
Strong upper level ridging over the Rockies will keep dry conditions in place through Monday.
A trough of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will bring gusty winds to portions of northwest Nevada today allowing critical fire weather conditions to develop for much of Humboldt county today.
(Rest of Today) Relatively tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure at the surface promoting mostly clear conditions. The associated cold front of this trough is pushing ESE into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South today. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny and hot day again with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees during the afternoon.
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 GOES-16 satellite-derived vorticity product highlights a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, with a second, decaying upper-level trough in the vicinity of Cuba. Ample solar radiation will allow high temperatures to top out at their advertised levels of the lower 90s. High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A series of low pressure systems will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday night. The Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector of low pressure, influenced first by vorticity advection today and by tomorrow, frontogenesis. Dew points are already in the mid-upper 60s, so the only lacking factor for organized convection is the wind field until the low propagates closer to the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate through Monday evening as the upper trough axis and an associated sfc cold front push through/exit the region.
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Upper level energy will continue to move southeast across the region as a slow moving trof advances across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through tonight. Readings early this morning running warmer than forecast.
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A brief break in the ridge will allow for slightly cooler temps today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ridging builds back in by Monday with widespread upper 90s and 100s expected.
An upper level low will move across the area today for cooler weather and a few showers.
635 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 (Today) Big picture wise, a somewhat of a ridging west and troughing east pattern was present over the greater CONUS. A strong upper ridge with 500mb heights in the mid 590s decameter range was positioned over the 4-Corners. Another upper ridge was situated across Bermuda. A westerly stream north of these ridges featured upper systems moving to the east.
No changes to forecast Bermuda high pressure will remain off the coast with a Piedmont trough developing this afternoon. Moisture is limited to the lower atmosphere, and precipitable waters values range from 1. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s inland to the mid-80s at the coast as the onshore flow will keep the beaches slightly cooler. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower 70s inland, with the mid-70s at the coast. Positively-tilted 500mb trough sweeps north of the area Monday, providing more chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly closer to the coast.
Weak surface ridging (from the E/SE) along with the stronger mid and upper ridge (from the NW) will help to keep the weather quiet for SE TX through the short-term (and likely longer).
Highs today expected to reach the low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): High pressure in control still will make for a persistent forecast for the Short Term period. Ridge is still building over the Four Corners region leading to breezy conditions through Monday with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Lows will be in the mid 70s as mostly clear skies will make it feel a little cooler overnight.
/issued 308 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ Early morning satellite analysis places the center of a sprawling upper ridge over the Four Corners region, with a fairly widespread area of mid/upper level moisture along its eastern perimeter extending into the central plains.
upper level high pressure will center itself over southwest Colorado through this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected across the Plains today given the lack of energy under the upper high for the eastern half of Colorado. the upper high will continue to spin across western Colorado. The energy embedded in the upper high over western Colorado will continue to lift northeast into souther Wyoming. Mozley Key Messages: 1) Daily thunderstorms continue through the period especially over the higher terrain, though chances periodically move into the plains. No real big change to the overall pattern, with upper ridging in place at the start of the period.
Otherwise, the Upper Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes. Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate through Monday evening as the upper trough axis and an associated sfc cold front push through/exit the region.
Satellite water vapor channel shows a 500-hPa ridge moving northward across the Four Corners region this afternoon. This ridge is expected to increase to 598 dm over the Rockies through tomorrow. High pressure will continue to build southward across the central plains this evening. For Monday, the high pressure center shifts off the the east. Weak lee troughing resumes across the High Plains of Colorado.
There remains a signal of isolated to scattered storms developing withing frontal zone late this afternoon and evening, with higher coverage likely confined to western AR where relatively cooler mid-level temps reside. A consistent signal in the models for several days now is for the low level thermal ridge to quickly expand back across the south central U.
Upper level ridging builds eastward on Monday and as 700/850 mb temperatures increase to near the max with respect to climatology, it will be a very hot day with highs topping 100 west of Interstate 29. With deep mixing and a tightening surface gradient as a low pressure trough develops through the western High Plains, southerly winds will really ramp up, and continued to blend the NBM 90th percentile into the wind field.
322 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The RAP model shows an 18C-20C h700mb thermal ridge building into wrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. The forecast is a compromise between the warmer/faster GFS which tracks the sfc across SD farther east and the slower/cooler HRRR and RAP models which keep the low farther west.
Heading into Monday, the upper level high remains over northern New Mexico during the day. This will allow WAA to return to the area, with forecast H850 temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than they are today.
1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 (Rest of Today) Relatively tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure at the surface promoting mostly clear conditions. The associated cold front of this trough is pushing ESE into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South today. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny and hot day again with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees during the afternoon.
The peak of the upper level subtropical ridge which has impacted the southern plains for the past few weeks is forecast by a consensus of deterministic models and cluster analysis to migrate a bit westward toward us, thereby increasing thicknesses over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with the net result being an increase in temperatures. Convective chances will be suppressed by the subtropical ridge, therefore this portion of the forecast will remain dry.
(Tonight through Monday night) Mostly clear skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas at the present time with temperatures in the in the lower to middle 90s across most locations. This should allow lows to reach the lower to middle 70s once again. Low temperatures tomorrow night will also be about a degree or two warmer across the area as temperatures continue to climb.
Going forward, our upper level front draped over the CWA will continue to get stretched and deformed between the tropical wave to the south and the latent heat induced ridge just ahead of the next sharp wave diving into the eastern CONUS. However, all areas should have better chances of precip with the combo of better moisture and some forcing ahead of the front/trough.
For the rest of this afternoon and evening still expect scattered convection near the coast, but the highest coverage will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula where there has been more sunshine. Convection will wind down this evening, but with the low level flow more south to southwest we could see a few showers move onshore, especially from around Tampa Bay northward, toward morning.
Could see a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon across portions of north Louisiana as an upper-level trough slides south along the eastern periphery of a previously established upper-level ridge across the region. Upper-ridge to maintain sufficient subsidence to drive afternoon high temperatures to around 100 to 105 degrees across southeast Oklahoma and east and northeast Texas on Monday with slightly lesser values to the east in the vicinity of the upper-trough.
A 596dam upper- level ridge centered over the Four Corners region today will drift southeastward towards the southern Plains tonight. A weak cold front dropping into north Texas late this afternoon should stall out around the I-20 corridor by midday Monday. The warmest conditions will be mainly across the Big Country and Concho Valley where the thermal ridge is strongest.
A small compact closed upper level low continues sliding southeast into NW WA this afternoon. The low will track into NW WA this evening before swinging east across eastern Washington late overnight and then exits into the northern Idaho Panhandle and NW MT Monday morning. A flat ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the region on Monday following the passage of the low for continued warm and dry conditions.
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Low pressure will drift northeast into the Ohio Valley through tonight, bringing a cold front closer to the region by late Monday.
Far eastern and western portions of the forecast area may stay a tad cooler in the upper 90s. Currently the only cooler air in the models is thunderstorm generated and there is no discernible front until Monday evening, though the cooling from the Sunday evening convection will take a couple of degrees off of Mondays highs. Pre-frontal trof will generate scattered thunderstorms again on Monday afternoon with an attendant threat of damaging wind gusts once again. Mid level winds will mix down Monday afternoon with gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range common in the lower elevations, and gusts over 50 mph expected in the higher terrain.
At the surface, the region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west tonight. As the low approaches on Monday, its associated warm front will set up over the North Dakota/South Dakota border, with increasing southerly winds continuing to usher very warm and moist air into the region, with afternoon highs in excess of 100 degrees across most of the area. The east will stay a bit cooler, so have issued a Heat Advisory east of the James River Valley, and an Excessive Heat Warning for the remainder of the CWA Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As the low tracks across the area Monday night, there is a chance for the boundary to become the focus for some shower and thunderstorm development.
303 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Main forecast issue will be potential for several days of hot and dry weather as an upper high remains centered over the desert southwest. Overall trend for the next few periods will be warming and remaining dry as the western ridge extending from the four corners region rotates into the Plains. The upper ridge to the west persists as a mid-level trough rounds the ridge into the northern Plains.
The trough axis is still well northwest of the area and another lobe of energy will bring another wave of showers and storms into the area late in the evening and past midnight. Given the rain, clouds, and troughing on Monday, it looks like BNA's 90 degree streak is going to come to an end. The trough axis will finally move east of the area Monday night shutting off rain chances from west to east.
Small cut-off low will be barreling in from the Pacific NW Monday generating thunderstorms that will initially bring a damaging wind threat during the afternoon then hail will become a threat soon after, mainly for the northeast and eastern zones.
Highs will be notably warmer Monday, but I've reduced them by a degree or two (vs previous forecast) based partially on the slow development of the return flow.
Upper level energy will continue to move southeast across the region as a slow moving trof advances across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through tonight. Readings early this morning running warmer than forecast.
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Water vapor composite analysis places the Florida Keys in between two troughs, one with a surface reflection over the Gulf of Mexico, and another decaying upper level trough over Cuba. As the aforementioned upper-level trough continues to dissipate, a strong ridge will build across the North Atlantic to the Florida Peninsula.
117 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A series of low pressure systems will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday night. The Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector of low pressure, influenced first by vorticity advection today and by tomorrow, frontogenesis. Dew points are already in the mid-upper 60s, so the only lacking factor for organized convection is the wind field until the low propagates closer to the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate through Monday evening as the upper trough axis and an associated sfc cold front push through/exit the region.
1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A brief break in the ridge will allow for slightly cooler temps today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ridging builds back in by Monday with widespread upper 90s and 100s expected.
(Tonight) An upper-trough will continue to drop southeast from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid South overnight, with its associated cold front approaching the Tennessee Valley by early Monday morning. The added cloud cover and low-level moisture content should help make for a mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.
321 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 An upper level trof, currently extending from over the Great Lakes region to Missouri, will continue to push slowly southeast tonight.
Subsequently cooler air has been left in Kansas. Afternoon temperatures are in the lower 80s in the northeast section to upper 90s in the southern and western portions.
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A surface boundary continues to slowly wash out near our northern CWA border as high pressure remains in control of the synoptic scale weather picture.
212 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Satellite shows monsoonal moisture getting pulled into the western side of a hot upper level ridge which is slowly progressing eastward. Monday an unusually deep upper level low moves into northwest Montana from the west with a cold front reaching the west portion of the area by afternoon. Monday night the front crosses the area and could be unusually windy overnight as the upper low track provides plenty of momentum and this may disrupt inversion formation and keep conditions again warm over central and eastern Montana.
Support from an upper-level trough moving overhead and MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg resulted in isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in western WI early this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected overnight with low temperatures in the low to middle 60s. Surface ridging will build across the Upper Mississippi Valley into Monday and allow a warm, moist airmass to spread across the region. In addition, afternoon dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in peak heat indices in the low to middle 90s.
1120 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from east-central MT to eastern WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with rising heights over the northern plains. Upper low spinning over southwest BC, the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper ridge continues to build as low level thermal ridge expands northeastward. Tonight, upper low moves into northern ID.
A trough off the Washington coast will enhance southwest flow aloft, with breezy conditions over eastern OR.
The 24 hour temperature change, comparing this afternoon to yesterday afternoon, shows temperatures in north- central Idaho being a few degrees cooler, while most of western Montana is at or above the reading from 1 pm. Storm chances increase tonight as a low pressure center moves into the Pacific Northwest. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are expected in northwest Montana, closer to the low pressure center, but the latest runs of many of the convection allowing models are showing more and more coverage for storms during early Monday morning. A cold front will associate with the low pressure system, causing cooler temperatures and increasing winds on Monday. Many wind advisories, and a high wind warning has been issued for winds with and following the cold front. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
(Rest of tonight) Clouds are increasing over northwest AL as an upper trough continues to shift south and east into the lower MS River Valley. A cold front is draped across southern IN and IL and will continue pushing southeast overnight. Overnight lows will be quite warm tonight, ranging from the low to mid 70s.
The allows slightly cooler conditions for Monday afternoon with highs of couple degrees lower. For northwest Nevada, gradient southwest flow has increased as Pacific Northwest trough moves across Washington state.