Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Weather system with scattered mountain showers and ridge top gusty winds will exit area tonight. The upper trough looks to have amplified a bit more than expected and main result of that is a few light showers have pushed further north in central Sierra than expected. The slow movement of the upper system will keep gusty winds a bit longer this evening at ridge level with gusts to 50 mph.
Temperatures have warmed across the lower elevations into the 80s. Southerly winds have mixed out the smoke in the lower levels, while hazy conditions from smoke aloft continue across the region. upper level ridging will shift eastward overnight as low pressure moves into the Northern Rockies. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer with 50s across the Plains. the upper level trough over the Northern Rockies will pass by to the north throughout the day. Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the lower elevations.
Ridging will continue to build into the region diminishing the winds across the region. Tonight will feature dry conditions as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes with increasing pressure. If clouds can scatter out further, then cooler lows are possible.
This front has been pushing inland from a low pressure along the coast of Oregon since last night. The trough to the north will continue to push inland with the center of the associated low crossing over Oregon tonight. A compressed marine layer could allow for earlier marine layer mixing and slightly warmer conditions along the coast.
302 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An upper ridge then an upper trough will move through the area over the weekend. The upper ridge will exit to our east tomorrow with the upper trough destabilizing the atmosphere. Temps may be cooler than forecast over the northeast zones because of this.
531 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Upper ridge axis is moving over the Rockies, while a low pressure system pushes into the Pacific NW. Surface map shows southeasterly winds 5-15 mph between high pressure to the east and an approaching trough. As the Pac NW trough approaches the northern plains tonight into Saturday, there may be some improvement in upper-level smoke/haze.
/EC/ High pressure is building into the region as the 500 mb pattern shifts to more northwesterly flow in the eastern half of the CONUS. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s and upper 50s with the drier air in place over the southeast. in the lower 80s and upper 70s.
Dewpoints are elevated again today in the lower 60's, with a continued pleasant, humid and relatively balmy feel outside.
The trough that has been over the region will pull away to the east, allowing for some drier air and decreasing rain chances to settle over the region on Saturday. The gradient tightens between strong high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Beta over the west Gulf of Mexico starting late Saturday.
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Sunny and dry weather has persisted across extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks so far today, with temperatures currently sitting in the low to mid 70s area-wide early this afternoon. High pressure centered over Wisconsin will keep a dry airmass in place over the Ozarks region for the remainder of today and tomorrow as it moves slowly east over the Great Lakes.
Previous Discussion: An upper ridge then an upper trough will move through the area over the weekend. The upper ridge will exit to our east tomorrow with the upper trough destabilizing the atmosphere. Temps may be cooler than forecast over the northeast zones because of this.
With a strong dome of high pressure out of the nrn Plains continuing to build ewd into the NE CONUS, little change in the overall wx pattern is xpcted into the morning hrs Sat. Current temp trends are mainly in the mid/upper 60s, and with the influx of slightly cooler air from the north, early morning lows Sat still look to fall predom into the mid/upper 50s for most spots. On Saturday, the inverted trough will shift west into MS during the afternoon hours, allowing moister east-southeast flow to produce additional clouds through the day.
The subsidence is expected to continue across the western portions of deep south Texas Saturday with bands of tropical convection across the coastal waters moving across the lower Texas coast Sat afternoon.
/issued 242 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ Quiet, dry and rather pleasant weather will continue tonight and Saturday as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface. Smoke from the western wildfires, making the long track around the upper ridge, will linger over the region and create hazy conditions. Lows tonight will dip down into the 40s and 50s, with highs on Saturday in the lower to middle 80s.
Despite that, morning lows should dip into the 60s for the first time in a while over interior portions, and even the lower 70s near the coast the next few mornings.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure is building into the region as the 500 mb pattern shifts to more northwesterly flow in the eastern half of the CONUS. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s and upper 50s with the drier air in place over the southeast. in the lower 80s and upper 70s.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region continues to bring mostly clear skies to much of the Mid-South with the exception of some high clouds over Mississippi associated with an upper level jet streak moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 50s areawide, with a few low lying areas briefly touching the 40s by tomorrow morning.
1037 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Canadian high pressure will gradually pass across our region this weekend.
A negatively tilted upper level trough, currently over the Pacific Northwest, will advance into Montana and Wyoming this afternoon.
An upper level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern Utah late tonight through Saturday. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected through the weekend. The former closed low over the PacNW has transitioned to an open-wave trough and will eject across Idaho and the northern Rockies tomorrow. Ahead of this trough, ample cloud cover remains over much of the area. The associated cold front is currently analyzed across far northwest Utah and will continue to push through northern Utah through tomorrow morning. The front will gradually weaken as it moves into central Utah, this as the trough quickly ejects northeast.
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will gradually pass across our region this weekend.
315 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Today and tonight will continue to be quiet as upper ridging dominates the overall pattern for the region. An upper low across southwestern Canada will continue pushing the upper ridge eastward with the ridge axis being east of the FA by tonight as the upper flow over the region flattens. A lee trough will develop by this afternoon and will bring winds back to the south/southeast and increase wind speeds to the 10-15 mph range. Winds will lighten up once again overnight as surface ridging pushing back into the FA.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 57 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 53 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 53 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 47 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1118 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Sunny and dry weather has persisted across extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks so far today, with temperatures currently sitting in the low to mid 70s area-wide early this afternoon. High pressure centered over Wisconsin will keep a dry airmass in place over the Ozarks region for the remainder of today and tomorrow as it moves slowly east over the Great Lakes.
358 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 A high pressure center moves from the Upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec and strengthens through this weekend. Simultaneously, the associated ridge affects our region. Closer to the lakeshore, temperatures are much milder in the lower 50s due to the water temp near 70. A refreshing Canadian airmass is moving over the region due to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
201 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 An upper ridge over eastern Montana this morning will move to the east today.
1113 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Expect cool and dry weather in central Illinois over the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region.
However, the main feature today will be an inverted low-level trough. This low-level trough is currently to the east across Georgia but will move into the Tennessee Valley later today. Model soundings indicate low-level saturation as the trough moves in. Otherwise, cloudy conditions are forecast throughout much of the day with high temperatures down in the low to mid 70s. Skies will begin to clear tonight as the inverted low-level trough moves to the west. Upper level heights will also begin to increase as the trough aloft pushes to the east of the Appalachians Mountains and ridging builds in from the southwest. Additionally, high pressue in the low-levels becomes established across the Northeastern U.
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure centered over the great lakes will remain in control of the regions weather today and tonight.
This will continue the slightly cooler-than average temperatures, light winds.
250 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Another pleasantly cool night is underway, with surface ridging conditions and temperatures running generally in the 50s.
As alluded to in the previous discussion, an amplified upper level flow pattern persists across the CONUS, with a longwave trough positioned across the Great Lakes and northeast, and a longwave ridge across the central U. This area of high pressure extends well southwest into Missouri and southwestern Illinois, and will maintain cool and very stable conditions throughout the area today.
422 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will gradually pass across our region this weekend.
As a result, efficient radiational cooling has quickly cooled down temperatures into the low to mid 30s. Near-freezing to freezing temperatures along with calm winds will continue to aid in the development of some patchy to areas of frost through the morning hours. The aforementioned high pressure will gradually drift east across the continental US this afternoon and evening while a thermal trough holds over SE MI during the daylight hours. Easterly low-level flow veering southeasterly throughout the day and h850 temperatures averaging 2C will support another round of below-normal daytime highs in the lower 60s.
An upper level low will exit tonight with showers gradually decreasing. The low will weaken further as it moves into eastern Washington by Saturday morning.
High pressure will continue to move into the region with dry air filtering into the state from the north. High pressure continues over the area with dry air filtering in from the northeast.
Otherwise, cirrus will move into the ridge aloft as it translates over the Plains ahead of the upper low/trof moving from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Southerly low level and surface flow will increase across central Kansas in response to the deepening lee side trof over the high Plains.
240 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The upper ridge over the western Plains/eastern Rockies is going to begin to start picking up its pace moving eastward. Areas farther south in Kentucky will become slightly warmer as they reach into the low 70s. Tonight, the axis of the upper ridge makes it to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This movement will reinforce upper high pressure into the region.
251 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 07Z water vapor imagery shows 500mb ridging remaining over most of the western half of the US, with the exception of a more amplified trough on the west coast. For the rest of today, the lee trough is progged to deepen this afternoon and interact with high pressure that has been pushing east, which will tighten the pressure gradient across the state. As a result, winds increase into the daytime hours and become more southerly, ushering slightly warmer air into the area. Overnight lows range from the low 50s in the east to upper 50s in the western CWA.
228 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Today will be cool with frost expected this morning across much of the area, and then highs only in the low to mid 60s.
1031 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 In the overall pattern, a trough is making its way onshore along the West Coast while a ridge sits over the Rockies and another trough stretches from Hudson Bay through the East Coast.
Increasing southerly flow beneath the ridge will promote gusty winds during the daylight hours as boundary layer mixing transports higher momentum air to the surface.
255 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure continues to build in, brining a long stretch of dry, cool early Autumn weather. Weak upper level troughing moving through from a system over Canada shouldn't pose a threat although may bring about some low stratocu clouds in from the Great Lakes and/or some cirrus advecting in from the northwesterly flow, however would be very little, therefore mainly a clear day on tap. As the trough exits tonight upper level ridging will reinforce high pressure at the surface and fair weather is expected to continue into the next period.
Deeper impulse/trough will advect into the region today, with a lee side trough pushing east. Ahead of the trough breezy southerly flow can be expected as a warm front slowly shifts north. NW SD may struggle to reach the lower 80s given easterly flow, residual high level smoke, and increasing clouds. Hence, have kept temps cooler there, with the warmest areas expected to be across SW to scentral SD where cloud cover will be the thinnest. Otherwise, mean NE PAC upper trough will support semi-unsettled near zonal flow across the NW-ncentral CONUS. However, given a lack of LL/GOMEX moisture per blocking from the progged tropical system, retained a dry forecast in the period. There will also be an increase in mid-level cloudiness with approaching trough.
1036 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Upper ridge axis is moving over the Rockies, while a low pressure system pushes into the Pacific NW. Surface map shows southeasterly winds 5-15 mph between high pressure to the east and an approaching trough. As the Pac NW trough approaches the northern plains tonight into Saturday, there may be some improvement in upper-level smoke/haze.
156 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Cool Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes region has allowed temperatures to fall into the 40s locally. It will be cool again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. The quiet weather pattern will continue through this upcoming week with an upper ridge positioned from the Southwest U.
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The cooler pattern continues into Saturday morning with low temperatures across the area in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
237 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Expect cool and dry weather in central Illinois over the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region.
Dry weather will continue though much of the upcoming week as central Indiana remains under the influence of strong high pressure.
The area of low pressure producing the active conditions continues to move eastward tonight, becoming more of an open wave by Saturday morning. The trough axis is expected to mostly be through the forecast area by Saturday evening. Expect some mountain activity to continue through the passage of the trough axis with drier conditions then expected. A cold front will across area this evening will bring gusty winds.
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will gradually pass across our region this weekend.
218 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The upper ridge has begun to break down at southwest flow aloft has started its voyage over the mountains and into the area, bringing with it a cold front that will that will cross this afternoon. Elsewhere in the lower elevations, showers will be spotty and light. Low dewpoints will move into areas east and northeast of the Bighorn Mountains and help to dry things out with humidities dropping into the lower teens and maybe upper single digits.
1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Tranquil weather will continue across West Central Texas through Saturday, with high pressure dominating. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
435 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 08z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving by to the north with still a decent pressure gradient across eastern Kentucky on account of low pressure to the southeast. This continues to advect a cooler and drier air mass into the area. As a result, temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s and lower 50s most locations with a small ridge to valley difference. Dewpoints range from the mid 40s north to the low 50s south while those northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph continue. They all depict Kentucky caught between a sharpening trough passing by to the northeast while ridging builds in from the southwest through the weekend.
1250 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 A period of cooler temperatures is expected tonight and Saturday with the possibility of frost forming by early Saturday.
100 AM PDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The arrival of a cold front will bring showers and westerly winds to the area, helping reduce the smoke and haze.
The ridge and southerly flow will lead to increased temperatures today and Sunday. The upper level trough will strengthen as it moves east leading to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient leading to stronger winds. High temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/ Today and tonight will continue to be quiet as upper ridging dominates the overall pattern for the region. An upper low across southwestern Canada will continue pushing the upper ridge eastward with the ridge axis being east of the FA by tonight as the upper flow over the region flattens. A lee trough will develop by this afternoon and will bring winds back to the south/southeast and increase wind speeds to the 10-15 mph range. Winds will lighten up once again overnight as surface ridging pushing back into the FA.
A high pressure center moves from the Upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec and strengthens through this weekend. Simultaneously, the associated ridge affects our region. Closer to the lakeshore, temperatures are much milder in the lower 50s due to the water temp near 70. A refreshing Canadian airmass is moving over the region due to high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Otherwise, cirrus will move into the ridge aloft as it translates over the Plains ahead of the upper low/trof moving from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Southerly low level and surface flow will increase across central Kansas in response to the deepening lee side trof over the high Plains. The upper low/trof will continue to advance eastward across the northern Plains into south central Canada during Sunday with seasonably warm and breezy southerly flow continuing across much of the area.
For today, deep northerly or northeasterly flow will continue to advect cooler and drier air into the region.
Canadian high pressure will shift east over the weekend, with southerly flow and WAA resulting in a moderating trend. Lows tonight should drop into the lower to middle 40s.
Today Through Sunday Night Dry and cooler weather will continue through the short term. On the national map, a strong area of high pressure is settled in across the Great Lakes with little movement expected through Sunday evening. This high is quite expansive, covering the entire state and much of the Srn CONUS. This ridge will slide Ewrd on Sunday centering itself over the mid MS Valley. Sinking air beneath the ridge will result in dry weather with little cloud cover seen across the region. Lows Sunday morning should be a couple degrees cooler than observed this morning, with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Sunday should be slightly warmer with readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Temps will be cool with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to near 80 across southern parts of the forecast area. As a result temps south of I-40 should be a little milder with lows around 60 due to cloud cover while area north of I-40 will drop into the lower 50s where skies remain clear. The drier Canadian/GFS tends to keep the system in the western Gulf/TX while the much wetter ECMWF which bring a dissipating system into the Lower MS Valley.
However, most of our observing sites near Route 10 had at least 6 hours below freezing so if APX ends there frost/freeze season, I was planning to end ours in our northern row. - Frost/freeze early this morning High pressure overhead is resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions early this morning with clear skies and calm winds. Mins will mainly be in the low to mid 30s with some mins even into the 20s across our northern fcst area where the freeze warning remains in effect. - Rather cold conditions again early Sunday The high pressure ridge will move east of our area tonight.
653 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure continues to build in, brining a long stretch of dry, cool early Autumn weather. Weak upper level troughing moving through from a system over Canada shouldn't pose a threat although may bring about some low stratocu clouds in from the Great Lakes and/or some cirrus advecting in from the northwesterly flow, however would be very little, therefore mainly a clear day on tap. As the trough exits tonight upper level ridging will reinforce high pressure at the surface and fair weather is expected to continue into the next period. Broad high pressure from the sfc through H85 will continue to promote benign weather conditions.
This AM we have a large area of surface ridging centered over the Great Lakes spanning across Eastern Canada and much of Eastern Conus. Otherwise, with the cool air advection and cloud cover, we should see highs only in the 70s today along with cooler readings tonight.
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure continues to build in, brining a long stretch of dry, cool early Autumn weather. Weak upper level troughing moving through from a system over Canada shouldn't pose a threat although may bring about some low stratocu clouds in from the Great Lakes and/or some cirrus advecting in from the northwesterly flow, however would be very little, therefore mainly a clear day on tap. As the trough exits tonight upper level ridging will reinforce high pressure at the surface and fair weather is expected to continue into the next period. Broad high pressure from the sfc through H85 will continue to promote benign weather conditions.
An upper-level ridge will be squarely atop the region today, while an upper-level trough advances eastward from the Rockies. Southerly winds throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere will be advecting warmer air northward, and sfc winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph possible) will also transport some higher moisture-content air with dewpoints in the 50s. The HRRR and RAP continue to plaster the area with lofted smoke, which will likely keep temps a bit cooler than they would have been otherwise. The trough enters the High Plains Sunday. A cold front may trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA during the morning and afternoon hours. Upper ridging will exist over the Northern Plains early in the period.
Current satellite analysis shows a mid to upper level trough running from Oregon south through parts of California and Nevada. High pressure is centered over New Mexico with the FA under the eastern fringe of this high pressure. This high pressure will keep the dry trend going with temperatures in the 80s for a high and upper 40s to 50s for a low today and tomorrow. Although, Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as the high pressure propagates east and becomes more centered over the FA.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The cooler pattern continues into Saturday morning with low temperatures across the area in the upper 40s to lower 50s.