Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Early this afternoon, a weak cold front has pushed east of the area in association with gusty northwest winds in its wake. Even with inefficient mixing as the warm nose aloft strengthens prior to the arrival of the cold front, strong winds just off the surface should allow for gusts in the 30-40 mph range after sunrise on Wednesday, subsiding a bit during the afternoon. The strongest synoptic scale lift will be focused across northern WI, and this will be where the highest rain chances will be. With warming 925 mb temps up to around 16C across southern counties, some 70 degree temps are possible, depending on how thick the mid-level cloud deck is, with cooler 50s in north-central WI where thicker clouds and showers will be most prevalent.
This will allow temperatures to bottom out cooler than normal in the mid to upper 40s at most sites. /22/ Prior discussion below: This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Dry, calm weather will continue across the forecast area through tomorrow thanks a high pressure system in the region. Whereas we are on the cold air advection side of the high today, the axis of the high should translate east toward the East Coast tomorrow and bring a return of warm air advection. Have minimum temperatures for the morning ranging from mid- to upper-40s, however a few of the drier spots could get cooler if winds go calm overnight.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 79 56 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 76 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 76 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 75 43 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 30.
Temperatures were running 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with KTUS up to 98 as of 13/21Z. The storm track remains well north of the state into this weekend as a weak upper low meanders off to our southwest.
Although broad zonal flow continues at mid-levels, ridging will remain in place across the WFO PAH forecast area through Wednesday morning. In collaboration with surrounding offices, kept PoPs focused into the lower chance category. Although there will be sufficient lift and forcing, significant parcel saturation will be limited, leading to limited QPF potential with the passage of the cold front through the area.
Only adjustment this evening is to raise temperatures and dewpoints by a degree or two through the early overnight given the slightly warmer start to the period based on surface obs across the region.
High winds continue to be a concern for one final day in the wake of a cold front. Pressure gradient will begin to loosen this evening as high pressure begins to build in the East Pacific.
Today will be very similar to yesterday, as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to build and expands over the Sunshine State. This will keep very dry air in the mid to upper levels, while the low levels stay moist.
High pressure currently covers much of the southeast U.
1003 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Overall, very little change has been made to the near term grids this evening, with the combination of deep-layer northwesterly flow and a ridge of high pressure at the surface expected to result in dry weather across the region. With this in mind, temperatures across rural portions of the forecast area have been reduced into the l-m 40s, with values in urban areas and near large bodies of water expected remain a few degrees warmer and in the m-u 40s. The low-level thermodynamic environment will also support the development of patchy fog in the 9-13Z timeframe, but this will mainly be confined to river valleys and other large bodies of water.
451 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure to our south will provide sunny and dry weather today after some early morning clouds. Breezy conditions develop tonight as a warm front moves across the region but should remain dry.
1026 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Early this afternoon, a weak cold front has pushed east of the area in association with gusty northwest winds in its wake. Even with inefficient mixing as the warm nose aloft strengthens prior to the arrival of the cold front, strong winds just off the surface should allow for gusts in the 30-40 mph range after sunrise on Wednesday, subsiding a bit during the afternoon. The strongest synoptic scale lift will be focused across northern WI, and this will be where the highest rain chances will be. With warming 925 mb temps up to around 16C across southern counties, some 70 degree temps are possible, depending on how thick the mid-level cloud deck is, with cooler 50s in north-central WI where thicker clouds and showers will be most prevalent.
Pressure gradient was starting to tighten up over the area in between a high pressure system to the east and in advance of this next system. (See fire weather section for more details) For today, pressure gradient is expected to continue to tighten up with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. High temperatures will be from the low to mid 80s. The cold front will make it into the far northwest CWA by late in the day and push through the area tonight. Models do show a low end potential for some light showers tonight with the cold front, but QPF totals remain very low.
A dry cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late Wednesday evening.
/issued 759 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020/ Another quiet day comes to an end with high pressure and dry and stable conditions over the region. High pressure will remain over the waters through the next several days with no headlines expected.
416 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday night.
331 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 (Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020) Today and Tonight: Low pressure currently over North Dakota will move eastward into northern Wisconsin today. The low will continue to deepen increasing the pressure gradient and the low level jet at 850 mb will move into the area late this morning and into the afternoon bringing strong winds to the area. There is a decent amount of positive vorticity advection at 500mb with the upper level trough that moves through late this afternoon and evening. This vorticity along with mid level frontogenesis may develop some showers and sprinkles, but little to nothing is expected with an ample amount of dry air in the low levels. Once the cold front passes through late tonight gusty winds will move back in from the northwest with gusts around 35 mph.
(Today and tonight) Throughout the day Wednesday, surface pressure gradients will continue to tighten and increase with a upper-level longwave trough moving across the central plains. This will result in strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The aforementioned cold front will begin moving into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening, bringing a sharp change of wind direction from the north and cooler temperatures. Dry conditions are expected to continue with the cold front passage, with any precipitation expected to remain east in areas of cooler temperatures and higher saturation.
The air behind this boundary is much cooler and we will see a 15-20 degree drop in high temps from Thu to Fri. The GFS has pretty strong SFC/LL highs crossing the TN/OH valleys through the first part of the week, which ultimately drives a cold front across us Sun night. Temps tricky also as GFS much cooler then EURO with passing front.
A few clouds may develop in the high levels during the afternoon and evening, but otherwise mostly clear skies are expected. Only adjustment this evening is to raise temperatures and dewpoints by a degree or two through the early overnight given the slightly warmer start to the period based on surface obs across the region.
317 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure over the southern Appalachians will continue to retreat eastward, and SW return flow will increase as deepening low pressure treks into the Great Lakes. Will keep min temps on the high end of the guidance envelope, as models are typically too cool in pre-frontal SW flow.
Northeast Nebraska should see highs near 70 and the southern Nebraska and Iowa border will be topping out in the lower 80s.
Gusts may exceed 20 knots across the higher terrain.
333 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Another tranquil day on tap across the Tennessee Valley, as zonal flow settles in aloft and high pressure and subsidence continue to rule near the sfc. Look for high temperatures to top out in the lower 80s today under clear skies.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 56 81 54 63 / 0 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 52 80 54 60 / 0 0 0 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 76 52 79 52 59 / 0 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 43 78 52 58 / 0 0 0 30 40.
A weak frontal boundary will wash out across the southeastern Big Bend today as a mid-level ridge remains in place aloft. Easterly flow will develop from east to west during the afternoon, bringing a swift end to the lower dewpoints that were briefly in place behind the defunct front.
243 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure to our south will provide sunny and dry weather today after some early morning clouds. Breezy conditions develop tonight as a warm front moves across the region but should remain dry.
137 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Active NW flow will persist through most of the week, supporting windy, cooler, and showery weather locally.
This afternoon, winds become more westerly with temperatures increasing into the mid 50s in north central Wisconsin to the low 70s further south into northeastern Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin. Forecast soundings show some instability in portions of north central Wisconsin that may result in some isolated thunderstorms for a couple of hours this afternoon into the early evening with the passage of the first cold front.
Overall, very little change has been made to the near term grids this evening, with the combination of deep-layer northwesterly flow and a ridge of high pressure at the surface expected to result in dry weather across the region. With this in mind, temperatures across rural portions of the forecast area have been reduced into the l-m 40s, with values in urban areas and near large bodies of water expected remain a few degrees warmer and in the m-u 40s. The low-level thermodynamic environment will also support the development of patchy fog in the 9-13Z timeframe, but this will mainly be confined to river valleys and other large bodies of water.
A dry cold front usher much cooler air into the area Wednesday, which will linger through the remainder of the week. Overnight mins tomorrow night are expected to be near or below freezing across most higher valleys of northern Utah and portions of central Utah.
210 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Minor near term adjustments made to temp/dewpt trends per recent obs otherwise expecting quiet ridge dominated mostly clear night on tap. Drier air continues to push south over the region through tonight as a high pressure ridge settles in over the area. This ridge becomes centered over the Carolinas which puts North and Central GA in easterly flow Wed afternoon.
1119 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Main concerns are winds and low RH values Wednesday behind the cold front. The areas don't overlap perfectly given the expectation of stronger winds continuing north of where the lowest RH values will be. Otherwise, the best forcing late tonight and Wednesday will be to our north, so the highest PoPs remain out of our area.
324 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 An upper level trough will dig southward over the Upper Midwest today.
Given the strong winds and low dewpoints, and subsequently the lower relative humidity today. Models bring in some light post-frontal precipitation over northern Missouri, but given how dry the lower levels are any precipitation chances will be pretty low and not expecting to squeeze much out of this system.
Widespread showers and breezy west winds persist this morning in the wake of last night's cold front passage.
High pressure currently covers much of the southeast U. Tonight will see temperatures close to normal levels with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 50s. A cold front will move across the Mid-South on Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to around 80 degrees.
High pressure will be strung out from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic states today. While rain chances are nil there there be enough moisture in the lower levels for a few to scattered clouds and some early morning fog. High pressure north of the waters will provide north or northwest winds at or below 15 knots for the next few days.
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 At 08Z a cold front has moved through the Black Hills region and was just north of Sheridan and Cherry County. A fast moving short wave trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains, driving a strong cold front quickly southeast through the area this morning. The initial cold front will bring a cooldown today, and trended highs cooler to the upper 50s northwest Sandhills, to near 75 in Chase, Hayes and Frontier County. A secondary cold front will move through tonight, bringing 850MB temperatures to as low as 1C to -3C by daybreak. Most areas will fall below freezing tonight, coldest in the upper 20s most of western and northwest Sandhills. Will be much cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s, except mid 50s far southwest.
Previous Discussion: Low pressure will begin to shift away with showers gradually becoming more confined to southern portions of the CWA by this afternoon. A broad upper trough centered over the north central region of the U.
Cold front will stall across NE FL this morning. High pressure will build to the north then northeast Today. As the high builds the flow will become more onshore through the day. The moist onshore flow will persist Wednesday night into Thursday, as high pressure remains to the northeast.
Cooler conditions filter into the area to end the week and carry into the weekend. As dry weather continues to filter into the region, from High pressure across the se US, this will increase fire danger. Heading into the overnight, an upper Low will track through the upper Midwest, with a weak trof developing into the northern Plains, then tracking through the northern Midwest. As the upper trof digs into the Midwest Thursday night, this will push the frontal boundary eastward, ending rain chances for the week. Dry, and cooler weather arrives to end the week and remain in place for the foreseeable time-line.
a high pressure ridge settles over the area. This ridge becomes centered over the Carolinas which puts North and Central GA in easterly flow this afternoon.
It will be a bit breezy across the lower elevations. Tonight low temperatures in central Oregon could drop below freezing and a freeze warning has been issued for ORZ511.
Highs this afternoon look to climb into the lower 80s/near 80F for most spots, under predom mostly sunny skies. Will begin to see an increase in cloud cover by Thursday evening, when a strong cold front approaches northwest Alabama.
310 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will result in warm and dry weather this week.
537 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper-level trough and associated sfc backdoor cold front over southeast WY will result in increasing west to northwest winds for NM today. A powerful cold front will blast southward across the eastern plains tonight with more strong winds, areas of blowing dust, and much colder air. High temperatures Thursday will be 25 to 35 degrees cooler for eastern New Mexico.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 417 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Some patchy ground fog has developed overnight, but this will dissipate by mid-morning giving way to a mostly sunny day with afternoon temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Moist, southerly flow increases on Thursday ahead of a strong cold front dropping down from the northwest.
As this last front moves beyond the region, the moisture it left behind has created foggy and drizzly conditions along the coast, Douglas county and across most of the ridges west of the Cascades in Oregon.
The fog and low ceilings are expected to clear out later this morning, and mid level ridging will allow for mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the period.
L/V to calm winds will transition to NE/E while remaining fairly light with a weak pressure gradient in place as high pressure builds along the Mid Atlc coast. High pressure to build along the mid Atlc coast during the day.
Forecast remains on track for a mostly dry warm day with scattered showers along the coastline and highs in the low-mid 80s. Cold front will stall across NE FL this morning. High pressure will build to the north then northeast Today. As the high builds the flow will become more onshore through the day. The moist onshore flow will persist Wednesday night into Thursday, as high pressure remains to the northeast.
1006 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and seasonably warm weather will persist until passage of a Thursday cold front.
430 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 The main story for today is the strong cold front that will move through the area this morning. The timing of this cold front has sped up a bit over the past few forecast shifts. The strongest winds are expected to be in the late afternoon when mixing is deepest and 850mb winds increase with the upper trough. Even so, we are still expecting to see enough clearing after midnight for temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s for northwestern portions of the area. A few spots will likely even reach freezing. Frost is likely across the entire area Thursday nigh, and many locations will dip below freezing. The upper trough continues to slide eastward, pulling the coldest air with it.
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 (Today and tonight) Throughout the day Wednesday, surface pressure gradients will continue to tighten and increase with a upper-level longwave trough moving across the central plains. This will result in strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The aforementioned cold front will begin moving into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening, bringing a sharp change of wind direction from the north and cooler temperatures. Dry conditions are expected to continue with the cold front passage, with any precipitation expected to remain east in areas of cooler temperatures and higher saturation. By Thursday morning, the cold front will be through most of western north Texas and most of Oklahoma except for parts of southeastern Oklahoma.
923 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through tonight before sliding offshore on Thursday.
High pressure over the southern Appalachians will continue to retreat eastward, and SW return flow will increase as deepening low pressure treks into the Great Lakes. Will keep min temps on the high end of the guidance envelope, as models are typically too cool in pre-frontal SW flow.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX/ Some patchy ground fog has developed overnight, but this will dissipate by mid-morning giving way to a mostly sunny day with afternoon temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Moist, southerly flow increases on Thursday ahead of a strong cold front dropping down from the northwest.
702 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and seasonably warm weather will persist until passage of a Thursday cold front.
We'll see those continue to increase and lower in height today as a cold front moves through the CWA. Wind advisories remain in effect across the lower elevations of northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah (along and north of I-70 in addition to the Gunnison Basin) due to this tightened gradient. Decided to add a freeze watch for COZ007 as areas near Rifle are forecast to drop just below freezing for a few hours tonight.
Another tranquil day on tap across the Tennessee Valley, as zonal flow settles in aloft and high pressure and subsidence continue to rule near the sfc. Look for high temperatures to top out in the lower 80s today under clear skies. Will begin to see an increase in cloud cover by Thursday evening, when a strong cold front approaches northwest Alabama.
There may be an increase in the low to mid level clouds overnight around KTLH and KVLD. A weak frontal boundary will wash out across the southeastern Big Bend today as a mid-level ridge remains in place aloft. Easterly flow will develop from east to west during the afternoon, bringing a swift end to the lower dewpoints that were briefly in place behind the defunct front.
Broad upper level troughing will remain in place across much of the CONUS. Expect the dryline to move across the lower Pecos Valley late in the morning and surge down the Rio Grande in the afternoon while the front enters the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau around midday and moves across the I-35 and US 90 corridors by late afternoon.
High pressure off the coast will bring warm temperatures, cool nights and light winds into the weekend. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will linger in the mid/upper 70s for western Nevada and upper 60s to around 70 for Sierra valleys while overnight lows dip into the low/upper 30s for western Nevada valleys (urban centers being on the warmer end) and mid/upper 20s for Sierra valleys.
340 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Low pressure will begin to shift away with showers gradually becoming more confined to southern portions of the CWA by this afternoon. A broad upper trough centered over the north central region of the U.
This AM we have surface ridging across Alabama as well as much of the Deep South. Northerly winds behind the front yesterday ushered in a much cooler airmass into the state. Also, the above mention 1022-20 mb ridge is expected to weaken and push to the east to the Atlantic Seaboard by this evening.
403 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 At 08Z a cold front has moved through the Black Hills region and was just north of Sheridan and Cherry County. A fast moving short wave trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains, driving a strong cold front quickly southeast through the area this morning. The initial cold front will bring a cooldown today, and trended highs cooler to the upper 50s northwest Sandhills, to near 75 in Chase, Hayes and Frontier County. A secondary cold front will move through tonight, bringing 850MB temperatures to as low as 1C to -3C by daybreak. Most areas will fall below freezing tonight, coldest in the upper 20s most of western and northwest Sandhills. Will be much cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s, except mid 50s far southwest.
620 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday night.
An unsettled pattern will follow Thursday with much cooler weather and chances for showers.
The main story for today is the strong cold front that will move through the area this morning. The timing of this cold front has sped up a bit over the past few forecast shifts. The strongest winds are expected to be in the late afternoon when mixing is deepest and 850mb winds increase with the upper trough. Even so, we are still expecting to see enough clearing after midnight for temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s for northwestern portions of the area. A few spots will likely even reach freezing. Frost is likely across the entire area Thursday nigh, and many locations will dip below freezing. The upper trough continues to slide eastward, pulling the coldest air with it.
/issued 324 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ An upper level trough will dig southward over the Upper Midwest today. The upper trough to the north is expected to dig southward and result in a cold front moving into the area early Thursday morning.
A high pressure ridge extending inland across central California continues to produce dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
459 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Active NW flow will persist through most of the week, supporting windy, cooler, and showery weather locally.
343 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Quick update to cancel the High Wind Warning and trim the Wind Advisory down. Temperatures on Thursday look to be similar to perhaps slightly warmer than today with highs in the 40s to perhaps low 50s.
216 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through tonight.
337 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Windy conditions will begin to diminish some early this evening, but it will remain breezy into Thursday behind a cold front.