Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Look for a gradual uptick in humidity with minTs in the 60s - trending +5 to +20F warmer than last night. Ridge axis stays west through the extended, with the CWA in a weak NW flow much of the time. VFR with light winds will continue today as high pressure remains in control. Chance of SHRA/TSRA, with the highest chance on Fri June 2022 MDT: The monthly average temperature at Harrisburg was 72.
1017 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic today. West-northwest mid level flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Valley. Hot conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s.
Through most of the period we will reside under the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft, near the north or northeast edge of upper level ridging associated with high pressure centered over the Deep South. Late in the period the upper high is expected to creep westward as troughing amplifies along the East Coast. The resulting broader area of west to northwest flow developing over the Ohio Valley and southeast CONUS will allow a cold front to drop south.
There remains some uncertainty in how quickly the moisture in the pbl mixes out with many of the models supporting afternoon dewpoints falling into the lower 60s which would result in lower heat indices. The mid/upper ridge will dominate the weather patten through the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting a continuation of hot and dry weather conditions.
908 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The Keys and coastal waters are under the influence of the Atlantic ridge, with the axis well to our north across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula.
An upper low will dissipate across the area today for additional rain showers.
438 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Overview: A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern -- characterized by a pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central MS River Valley, Deep South, and Southeast US -- will persist through the short term period. Given that the Tri-State area will remain situated on the WNW-NW periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge. CWA will be on periphery of strengthening ridge with potentially weak small scale disturbances moving through the flow.
Clear skies blanketing the region this early 4th of July morning with temperatures running 2-5 degrees cooler than 24 hour ago. Trough positioned along the west coast will lead to another day of gusty south-southwest winds. On Tuesday, winds stay elevated but gusts do back off a bit only topping out around 30 mph as trough is forecast to start retrograding westward away from the coast.
Winds wl remain light and variable as high pressure remains settled over the region. Recent IR imgry depicted scattered low to mid lvl clouds, following the anticyclonic motion of a strong upper high over the Srn Cntrl US.
High temps look to be within a degree or two of 100 degrees across the entire area, and dewpoints are currently running in the low 70s. SPC has the highest severe probs over our north where instability is forecast to be highest, although there is at least some severe threat across the entire area.
Dew points in the lower 70s will make for another rather humid day with heat indexes climbing above 100 in the central and southern valley locations for a few hours.
606 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (Today) A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate much of the weather across the Deep South and Southeast. The last several days, the observed highs have been a few degrees warmer than guidance. Afternoon temperatures rise into mid to upper 90s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, expect heat indices to rise to into the 100-105 degree range.
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand further westward into our area today.
Recent IR imgry depicted scattered low to mid lvl clouds, following the anticyclonic motion of a strong upper high over the Srn Cntrl US.
The aformentioned front should creep further to the north as a warm front during the course of the day. This and a light but deep southerly flow will help maintain areawide dewpoint values in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible.
333 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Pacific NW upper low is drifting onshore this morning. Ahead of the trough, southwest flow continues across the CWA, with several waves over central/southern Wyoming approaching.
Warmer and drier weather returns by mid-week. Ensembles linger the main trough off the PacNW coast the next several days continuing below-average temperatures across interior NorCal into mid-week.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft slowly building northward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado. Temperatures Tuesday will be warmer with highs 100-104.
520 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Pacific NW upper low is drifting onshore this morning. Ahead of the trough, southwest flow continues across the CWA, with several waves over central/southern Wyoming approaching.
High pressure will provide a sunny and dry Independence Day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, with freezing levels around 14-15kft, some of large hail may melt before it reaches the ground. Increasing mid lvl clouds are expected by erly Tue as wind veers to the SW with a warm front.
Multiple disturbances are forecast to ride the ridge through North Dakota, this is where our chance of thunderstorms will come from in an otherwise upper level ridge pattern. The low-level jet will be southwest of us tonight and mostly in southeastern Montana, this could limit the instability overnight and reduce the risk of severe storms the farther you get away from the far southwest. Tuesday brings more chances of thunderstorms as another disturbance rides through the upper level ridge. With the overall ridging pattern continuing, high temperatures will be in the 70s and lower 80s again. The Northern Plains will remain under this ridging pattern with the continuation of little disturbances moving through the ridge, bringing multiple chances of thunderstorms throughout the week. Temperatures will slowly rise as the week progresses from a thermal ridge intensifying.
Broad ridging in association with the Bermuda high pressure off to the northeast continues to direct an east - southeasterly flow across the Florida peninsula over the next few days. Compared to the last couple days, the flow has become slightly stronger, in response to a slight shift in the ridge axis position. Temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s.
Daytime heating and resultant mixing afterwards has lowered local dewpoints from the low/mid 70s this morning, to 70/low 70s this afternoon, helping alleviate heat issues a tad. Muggy conditions are expected tonight with lows in the low/mid 70s.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ After a lucky few saw some decent rainfall yesterday mainly northwest of the Metroplex, mid level ridging has resumed control of North Texas weather and a period of hot and dry conditions will prevail through the week. Satellite imagery shows cloud free skies across most of the region with temperatures already in the lower 90s. /Issued 306 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022/ /Tuesday night and Beyond/ Hot, humid and rain-free conditions will be the main story mid to late this week, as the positioning and strength of a mid-level high pressure ridge create a particularly hot summer pattern. The ridge axis, which is currently situated over Arkansas and Louisiana, will shift slowly westward across the forecast area during the mid to late week period.
These storms have been and continue to be supported by short wave troughs and the low level jet. With a rather constant upper level pattern thanks to a rather stationary upper high over the south central CONUS we will remain in more of a ridging pattern with a variety of short wave ridge riders this week. Near the end of the weekend the pattern could start to change as the high shifts some allowing a chance for some troughs to work into the Upper Midwest.
Look for a gradual uptick in humidity with minTs in the 60s - trending +5 to +20F warmer than last night. Ridge axis stays west through the extended, with the CWA in a weak NW flow much of the time. VFR with light winds will continue this afternoonand evening as high pressure remains in control. Chance of SHRA/TSRA, with the highest chance on Fri June 2022 MDT: The monthly average temperature at Harrisburg was 72.
Cumulus is already becoming more pronounced along and ahead of a mid to upper trough axis moving northeastward out of the eastern TX panhandle. Tomorrow should remain dry for all locations and afternoon temps will continue to increase into the triple digits on the western fringe of the subtropical ridge.
(This evening through Tuesday) This is the start of a time frame with a large and expansive upper level high dominating our weather pattern. This high will be centered over Arkansas and Tennessee tonight and Tuesday, with our area on its western flank. With strong insolation and slight strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, expecting highs on Tuesday to be 97-102 degrees across our area.
Upper-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley is providing strong subsidence, so any shower/storm activity will struggle to develop. For those with outdoor plans later tonight, expect light south winds, mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 80s. Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern on Tuesday. Highs will generally be from the mid 90s to near 100 north of I-10 and in the low 90s south of I-10.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): For the short term period, high pressure will continue to remain parked overhead.
Late week, ridging will set up, decreasing winds and increasing temperatures to above average through the weekend with dry weather expected through the forecast period. A gusty 4th of July afternoon expected today due to a trough set up over the western CONUS. Meanwhile, thanks to this trough, this afternoon is expected to be the coolest of the forecast period, with Las Vegas struggling to reach the triple-digits. A double-barreled trough sitting over the western CONUS will persist for another day before retrograding northward.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand further westward into our area today.
An upper low center will weaken and shift into British Columbia and Alberta tonight.
(The rest of today ) Ridge of high pressure was beginning to build westward into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas at mid morning. With the CWA on the western periphery of the ridge center. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s had already created heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. High temps today look to climb a couple degrees warmer compared to yesterday with mid 90s to around 100 degrees forecast. with the CWA on the western periphery of the center of high pressure. The greater potential for this is progged across the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas during the mid/late afternoon hours.
High pressure centered over East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to build westward into the area through the period, maintaining hot and generally rain-free conditions over the CWA. Highs today have been running from the upper 80s along the immediate coast to the lower 100s out west. Temperatures will stay warm and above normal through the end of the period, with overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will once again run from the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast, to the lower 100s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (The rest of today ) Ridge of high pressure was beginning to build westward into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas at mid morning. With the CWA on the western periphery of the ridge center. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s had already created heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. High temps today look to climb a couple degrees warmer compared to yesterday with mid 90s to around 100 degrees forecast. with the CWA on the western periphery of the center of high pressure. The greater potential for this is progged across the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas during the mid/late afternoon hours.
However another surge of 150-200 percent of normal precipitable water is poised to move north over our region Tuesday in the persistant southwesterly flow between an upper level trough off the Pacific NW coast and an upper level ridge over the Gulf Coast states. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over the remainder of the higher terrain a little earlier Tuesday and move northeast over adjacent valleys.
Low pressure continues to rotate across the region, helping to keep conditions unstable and moist. Conditions will remain quiet for the first half of Tuesday, but will once again become unstable in the afternoon and evening as the region remains under the influence of the same area of low pressure.
A trof could push through northern Nevada mid-week bringing increase cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday Low pressure off the BC/Pacific Northwest coast will remain quasi- stationary through tomorrow evening.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with high pressure in control. 500 mb high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will maintain rain-free conditions with above-normal temperatures for the BRO CWFA for the period.
Highs today and on Tuesday range from around 90 into the lower 90s with heat index values reaching 99 to 105. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast, and patchy late night fog development is possible.
1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Upper level ridging remains anchored across the southeast CONUS. West to southwest flow aloft will continue across our area today on the northwest periphery of the ridge. A warm front will lift north into the north central NE by this afternoon. A bit drier air (lower dew points) do mix north out of KS as the warm front lifts into the area. Low-level dew points will pool on the cool side of the warm front, with near 70 dew points and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to very unstable conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Upper level ridging is still forecast to build northwestward from the southeast CONUS by weeks end.
326 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Warm front continues to lift into eastern IA with temps in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s.
Dry conditions are expected through much of the night under the influence of high pressure. The lowered PoPs also better reflect the uncertainty in timing and location of thunderstorms despite the heightened severe risk level. The upper ridge over the Central Plains and the broad upper trough over the northeast U.
There remains some uncertainty in how quickly the moisture in the pbl mixes out with many of the models supporting afternoon dewpoints falling into the lower 60s which would result in lower heat indices. The mid/upper ridge will dominate the weather patten through the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting a continuation of hot and dry weather conditions. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the next 24 hours. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper circulation lifting over western OK with upper ridging centered over the Arklatex region. Meanwhile, an upper low is situated over the Pacific Northwest.
1119 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Pacific NW upper low is drifting onshore this morning. Ahead of the trough, southwest flow continues across the CWA, with several waves over central/southern Wyoming approaching.
The upper level ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to build into the CWA on Tuesday. Highs will increase into the lower to mid 90s tomorrow with lows tonight in the mid 70s. Ensemble and cluster analysis shows upper level ridging through the work week. This will lead to seasonable summer like weather with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Come the weekend, cluster analysis hints at a trough digging over the east coast.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge parked over the Gulf Coast states, leaving weak southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the periphery of the high pressure. cooler than they would be if the ridge was a bit closer. Expect another afternoon/evening of slow-moving thunderstorms w/heavy rainfall/flash flooding possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Tuesday, the ridge develops a bit farther west, nudging thicknesses/temperatures up a degree or two.
Upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the region with broad upper level troughing over southeastern Canada and New England. Both afternoons/evenings aided by influence from weak disturbances rounding the eastern edge of the ridge and differential heating chance PoPs continue to look possible. The pattern will shift somewhat tomorrow as the high pressure aloft begins a westward expansion.
Continued heating with high temperatures in the lower 90s to around 103 will be sufficient to erode any capping, despite 700mb around +16. Overview: A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern -- characterized by a pronounced upper level ridge centered over the central MS River Valley, Deep South, and Southeast US -- will persist through the short term period. Given that the Tri-State area will remain situated on the WNW-NW periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge. CWA will be on periphery of strengthening ridge with potentially weak small scale disturbances moving through the flow.
But with highs forecast to get into the lower to mid 90s, heat indices will be near or above advisory criterion. It will be sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Northwesterly upper level flow on the eastern side up an anomalous upper level ridge remains in place over the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week.
/Issued 1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ After a lucky few saw some decent rainfall yesterday mainly northwest of the Metroplex, mid level ridging has resumed control of North Texas weather and a period of hot and dry conditions will prevail through the week. Satellite imagery shows cloud free skies across most of the region with temperatures already in the lower 90s.
202 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 A more typical summertime pattern has taken hold over the past several days, with the Atlantic ridge nosing into the Florida Peninsula with the Keys on the southwest periphery. Today, as well as the past few days, moisture has been limited in the mid and upper levels, resulting in slightly below normal rain chances, and allowing temperatures to reach into the lower 90s. An area of deep tropical moisture will rotate westward along the base of the ridge and should overspread the Keys area beginning sometime late tomorrow afternoon.
Heat head lines will likely have to be extended beyond the current short term as the building ridge does not look to break down in any significant way until the weekend.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) The morning water vapor imagery indicates that upper level ridging has built in over the center of the region into Lower MS Valley, although a weak shear axis, remnant from the tropical low that affected the region this past weekend, is situated from SE AR/far NE LA into Wrn and Srn MS. The morning progs indicate that the ridge may begin to drift W and N through the afternoon, with strong heating within a high PW environment characteristic of 1.
Temperatures will rise quickly Tuesday under partly cloudy skies and a strong upper ridge over to our west will begin to increase upper heights on it's flank in our area.
149 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic today. West-northwest mid level flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Valley. Hot conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s.
A gradual uptick in humidity is expected overnight with minTs in the 60s trending +5 to +20F warmer than last night.
Water vapor imagery was depicting a broad upper ridge across the central CONUS along with a strong circulation over the Pacific NW.
Relatively dry and very warm conditions will persist through much of the period as a building upper level ridge of high pressure remains locked in across the Central Plains. Despite prevailing southerlies reinforcing a modestly moist air mass across much of western Kansas, an extremely weak flow aloft associated with a ridge axis bisecting southwest Kansas into central Kansas, not to mention a decent cap in place, will hinder precip chances for much of the area through late Tuesday afternoon. Expect lows down into the 70s(F) tonight with little change to the mild air mass spread across the high plains. Temperatures Tuesday will be warmer with highs 100-104.
121 PM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Breezy and cooler along with some clouds for Independence Day. Overall synoptic setup keeps troughing off to our northwest near the coast of British Columbia, with ridging to our east over the central portion of the CONUS.
Confidence is still on the lower end for this storm redevelopment location with multiple weak boundaries in place from the morning showers and storms. While shear values of 40 knots in the lowest 3 km would be supportive, there still remains some concern about the capping inversion and if the forcing would be strong enough to overcome this inhibition. Another key player is how well the low-level jet increases over the area and interacts with the decent pool of instability centered more over Iowa. Due to the high precipitable water pooled along the front of 2 to 2.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) This is the start of a time frame with a large and expansive upper level high dominating our weather pattern. This high will be centered over Arkansas and Tennessee tonight and Tuesday, with our area on its western flank. With strong insolation and slight strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, expecting highs on Tuesday to be 97-102 degrees across our area.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): For the short term period, high pressure will continue to remain parked overhead.
Today was notably warmer than yesterday, with dewpoints running about the same as this hour last evening. That being said, July 4th festivities will add a lot of particulates into the lowest parts of the atmosphere which could aid in the development of some patchy fog and/or low clouds. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 93 76 94 76 / 10 40 30 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 93 74 93 76 / 10 30 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 74 92 75 93 75 / 10 40 20 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 92 71 88 70 / 20 40 40 60 40.
However another surge of 150-200 percent of normal precipitable water is poised to move north over our region Tuesday in the persistent southwesterly flow between an upper level trough off the Pacific NW coast and an upper level ridge over the Gulf Coast states. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over the remainder of the higher terrain a little earlier Tuesday and move northeast over adjacent valleys.
Warm front continues to lift into eastern IA with temps in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s.
Showers over the forecast area have generally subsided this evening as the upper low pressure center moves eastward through northern Washington.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to middle 70s elsewhere. High temperatures remain in the middle 90s to around 105 degrees with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
701 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Convective coverage is fairly sparse this afternoon, mainly over the high mountains, foothills and Cheyenne Ridge.