Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will lead to warm frontogenesis across southern MO and southern IL this morning. The warm front will then lift rapidly north of the CWA by early afternoon with increasing south-southwest low level flow in its wake and pronounced WAA. A cold front will then move south into the region tonight, merging with the aforementioned quasi-stationary warm front this evening just to our north. Snowfall intensity to pickup during about a 6 hour window Friday afternoon/Friday night, with the highest amounts, a 2 to 3 inch band of snow, along and south of I-70 corridor, though most of forecast area to see at least 1 to 2 inches of snow.
Northwest flow aloft will continue over the central plains downstream of a ridge axis centered over the Great Basin. A weak cold front will slide into the local area during the day on Thursday. However, it will have minimal impact, with only slightly cooler temperatures north and east of the front. Temperatures will go nowhere on Friday, and in fact may slowly drop from the lower 30s in the morning to the upper 20s in the afternoon, coldest in the northeast half.
157 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will be in place across the region tonight. A weak area of low pressure will bring the chance for some light precipitation mainly along and north of Interstate 70 Thursday evening into Thursday night.
531 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 A cold front extends from central Florida westward to the central gulf. As high pressure moves eastward by tonight a quick return flow will take place with temperatures and moisture creeping back up rapidly.
A weak cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. Temperatures should remain on the warmer side through the night. Even with the cold front, the temperatures on Thursday will be about the same as today. With warmer temperatures on Thursday afternoon there will be rain to start with during the evening hours and mainly in the northwest part of the area.
426 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will linger over the eastern Ohio Valley today.
Friday night, models depict decent frontogenetic forcing from 800-600mb in conjunction with s/wv energy within a broad trof over the Great lakes to lower Ohio Valley. Some brief freezing rain and sleet before the snow is quite possible across west Kentucky. Otherwise, for today and tonight, variable clouds and a bit warmer as high pressure moves on east of the area.
648 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will linger over the eastern Ohio Valley today.
These low POPS are expected to persist through tonight (as the low-level flow strengthens further). Thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up by Fri afternoon as the next cold front begins to make its way down from NoTX. Cooler/drier wx will prevail through the weekend in the wake of the front. However rain chances (albeit light) are expected to return Mon as the next cold front moves into the region. Potential for isolated showers this afternoon mainly west but guidance indicates the cap to be minimal this afternoon and given temperatures forecast a few degrees warmer than the what model forecast soundings indicate may need to introduce some VCTS impacts mid afternoon if trends continue throughout the late morning hours near IAH/HOU but for now will hold with VCSH.
158 AM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Northwest flow aloft will continue over the central plains downstream of a ridge axis centered over the Great Basin. A weak cold front will slide into the local area during the day on Thursday. However, it will have minimal impact, with only slightly cooler temperatures north and east of the front. Temperatures will go nowhere on Friday, and in fact may slowly drop from the lower 30s in the morning to the upper 20s in the afternoon, coldest in the northeast half.
The risk of supercell storms diminishes quickly with northward extent, as the surface warm front over north Texas is unlikely to move much farther north, and the relatively cooler/drier air under the elevated frontal surface will adversely affect storm development. As the system moves off to the east tomorrow, brisk west winds will turn generally northerly during the day, as cooler air moves into the region.
120 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
357 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Northwest flow aloft prevails between upper ridge over northern plains and upper low over Quebec. Weak cold front from the north is making its way across Upper Michigan this afternoon. Temps have steadied out in the low 30s near Lk Superior but pushed into the upper 40s again over scntrl this aftn where skies stayed mostly sunny all day. Mid clouds dissippate to from north to south on Monday but could be lingering low clouds due to cooler air aloft and flow continuing off Lk Superior out of high pressure over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.
136 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure through Monday. Updated to lower afternoon temperatures starting with latest obs and few degrees lower than the high resolution arw models. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected.
Not much change on that front as moist/unstable air will sweep across the region into the morning as a warm front surges northward. Meanwhile, an upper low will track through the OH valley providing ample lift for convection later in the day.
1258 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 332 AM CDT As the center of high pressure settles over the Middle Mississippi Valley this morning, clear skies and light winds have developed overnight. Temperatures should drop into the middle 20s by daybreak, with a few isolated locations possibly dipping into the lower 20s, while the urbanized areas of the Chicago Metro remain a bit warmer. With upper ridging building across the region today, temperatures should be able to climb in to the 50s today. However, a light pressure gradient and strong differential heating between the cold lake and warmer land should be sufficient to generate a lake breeze. So, while much of the CWA sees temps climbing into the 50s, the lakefront may only reach the lower to middle 40s, before dropping back into the upper 30s as the lake breeze pushes inland.
215 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A low level stratus deck has inhibited solar insulation and in turn kept the area much cooler than the guidance was recommending. As this low deepens it will help advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up into our area with a warm front and occluded boundary providing the lift necessary to make Monday a rather rainy day. Frontogenesis over SE Kansas overnight will enhance the warm frontal boundary and eventually allow wrap around moisture and overrunning to push into our area Monday morning. The low will quickly move W to E across Missouri with precipitation ending by late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Satellite imagery shows the short wave trough from West Texas south into northern Coahuila. This short wave trough will continue to move northeast across North Texas this afternoon to near Arklatex region by early this evening. A weak extension of the short wave trough will move into South Texas this afternoon.
Northeast winds will increase tonight into Monday as pressure gradient tightens up between Canadian high pressure and low pressure moving well to our south.
242 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure through Monday. As of 230 PM Sunday High pressure system will keep the area cool and dry through the period. Clear skies and clam winds could allow for radiational cooling, making temperatures to drop around freezing in some places overnight. Low pressure approaches from the southwest on Monday night. Across the Lowlands and Southern Mountains any precip should fall as rain, but in the Northern Mountains things are a bit more complicated.
2 to 5 inches of snow is possible for lower elevation areas such as West Glacier and Polebridge. The higher terrain, including US-2 from Essex to Marias Pass, should see 7 inches or more of additional snow.
145 PM MST Sun Mar 18 2018 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue Monday, but conditions will warm quickly back into the 80s by the middle of the week. Within a larger western Conus trough, a notable PV anomaly has lifted into western Colorado this afternoon while the attendant frontal boundary has swept well into New Mexico. More substantial ridging aloft will build over the SW Conus through the middle of the week ahead of deep cold core low diving south through the east Pacific basin.
156 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Trough will eject across the Rockies and close off as it moves along the Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight. No significant accumulations are expected during that time as the upper low moves away and winds will gradually diminish.
252 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Cold high pressure will continue to build down from Canada tonight and Monday.
233 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure through Monday. As of 230 PM Sunday High pressure system will keep the area cool and dry through the period. Clear skies and clam winds could allow for radiational cooling, making temperatures to drop around freezing in some places overnight. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected.
Partial clearing behind an exiting weather system and cooler temperatures tonight. High pressure will bring a warming trend the first half of the week. Some areas of freezing in colder valleys east and south of Tucson, but nothing unusual.
540 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
Ceilings are expected to lower after sunset in advance of an approaching cold front that will move through the area late overnight/early tomorrow morning.
252 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 WV imagery shows a fast-moving, negatively-tilted upper trough moving thru the Four Corners area at 18Z, and forecast to be over NE NM by 00Z Mon. A cold front will push thru the region Monday, entering the nrn zones by around 18Z and keeping afternoon highs near- to below- normal.
301 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Satellite pictures are showing an oblong circulation right over the four corners at the bottom of the upper trough to our west. Convection is breaking out over the high mountains and foothills and Palmer Ridge at this time. The 12Z models all show an upper closed low over the northeastern corner of the Texas Panhandle at 06Z and over southeastern Kansas at 12Z. The low level winds are progged to be north-northeasterly into mid evening, then more north-northwesterly for the rest of tonight. There is some in the high mountains all day Monday. By Monday night, the upper level trough will push eastward bringing NW flow over the state.
The low clouds do not appear to be going anywhere, and even the little bit of clearing in southwest Indiana is likely to disappear through the afternoon. High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure and associated surface front move east across the region Monday. the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon.
Stronger lift associated with short wave trough is north of the region. Upper low near the Four Corners region is expected to move east into the plains tonight with the low northwest of Tulsa by 12Z Monday. The upper low will move through the Ozarks Monday and into the Ohio Valley Monday night. Cooler air will arrive late Monday night with an increase in winds over the coastal waters to near SCA late.
306 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 At 2 PM CDT, fair skies with light winds are noted over the region with temperatures rebounding into the lower 50s east to the mid to upper 40s west.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight, then dry slot spreads into area from the west as upper low translates along the KS/OK border. Where ceilings dissipate, they will likely return after the end of this forecast period with scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Monday afternoon as upper low moves through the region. /Issued 1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/ Water vapor satellite imagery and 12z upper air data indicate a strong short wave trough translating through AZ this morning with a much weaker wave over WTX. 15z surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over sern CO with a trough extending southward across ern NM into WTX.
200 PM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Fair weather will prevail through Monday with more cool weather this afternoon, then slightly warmer Monday.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge axis lies on the Straits of Florida with south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots from the Reef Tract northward, and variable at 10 knots or less on the waters south of the Reef. A weak ridge axis will lie across the Straits of Florida and the adjacent Bahamian chain and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight before shifting southward and across the archipelago of Cuba early this week.
Satellite pictures are now showing a closed circulation developing at the bottom of the upper trough just southwest of the four corners right now. A vigorous upper level trough will move from the Great Basin across Colorado with a closed low developing over sern CO/nern NM by early this evening. The low will then move quickly into the srn plains by late tonight. Overall will see decent mid level ascent as the trough moves across later today and this evening with favorable lapse rates. By afternoon, enough daytime heating and destabilization combining with cold advection aloft may allow a few light snow showers to spread from the higher terrain back into the I-25 Corridor.
Warm front from south of kmlu to near just south of Red River Valley bordering TX and OK will be main focus for tstm development later this aftn. Latest 12z progs are very different in the handling of this backdoor cold front with the 00z GFS holding it up pretty much where it is now and the HRRR/NAM wanting to continue pushing it southward along its eastward flank into EC LA.
126 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes today with a cold front crossing the region this evening. High pressure will then ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks eastward between the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday and Monday night.
305 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Cold, but mainly dry weather, is expected for the next few days, with Canadian high pressure in control.
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A still and cloudy day across the region beneath high pressure. The lack of sunshine or mechanical mixing kept high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
323 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A low pressure center at 950-850mb is currently pushing southward from Lake Huron and into sections of southwestern Ontario this afternoon. The low is weak and appears to be a surface reflection of lower tropospheric warm advection in the presence of a greater baroclinic zone. As daytime heating wanes and the mixed layer begins to shrink, models are advertising a shallow cold front, or density current dynamics that will rapidly push southward through the forecast area into northern Ohio. Lows are expected in the lower to middle 20s. Surface ridging will steadily expand southward through the Great Lakes tonight due to increase in confluent flow aloft and the deep cold air advection.
1045 AM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Rain and mountain snow will linger over the Idaho Panhandle today as a slow moving low pressure system exits the region.
Downstream a warm front exists draped across Central Mississippi. The atmosphere is expected to modify quickly ahead of the system as a warm front lifts north through the forecast area by early tomorrow morning. 60s dewpoints are expected to push as far north as the I-40 corridor by 18Z tomorrow with temperatures pushing into the lower 70s. Winds will also be backed as the low approaches our area from the west.
314 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 The area is currently under an upper level ridge with a disturbance moving northeastward across the western Dakotas. Light snow accumulations are expected during the day on Monday as a lot of melting is expected with temps near freezing and the fact that it's falling during the day.
419 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A weak cold front will drop across the region through this evening. High pressure will then build back into the region Monday, with this system influencing our weather through the end of the week. Early this afternoon there is a weak cold front across Lake Ontario. As a result temperatures are cooler east of Lake Ontario on the cold side of the boundary with afternoon temperatures in the 20s. It's warmer south of Lake Ontario with afternoon temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. On Monday high pressure across western Ontario province will ridge toward our region.
412 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 Main focus here will be with expected strong winds in the wind prone areas of southeast Wy overnight through Thursday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across Thursday night. Otherwise just some snow showers overnight into Thursday over the higher mtns.
The low pressure system and cold front that produced 1-2 inch rainfall amounts late night and this morning, had moved east of our area. A big question is when (or if) the low clouds will break up. As temperatures drop through the 20s, any fog that forms will be "freezing fog" and could cause a thin layer of ice to form on surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses. We think the drier air moving in with the high pressure will keep this freezing fog from becoming widespread, but where it forms, it could create hazardous travel conditions. The patches of freezing fog are most likely near lakes and rivers. Patchy freezing fog is likely to linger til 9 AM CST Thursday, then mainly sunny skies under high pressure will help temperatures warm into the seasonable 40s.
/issued 205 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ Water vapor imagery clearly shows a shrtwv trof passing across the area while visible imagery shows that most all low clouds have dissipated on the e slopes of the Davis Mtns. A few SHRA may near the Big Bend area otherwise warmer still on Fri, especially across the w where the low-level thermal ridge will be well established. A cold front will attempt to edge slowly into nrn CWFA Fri evening and may be near I-20 by noon on Sat. A minor shrtwv trof passing and s winds returning over the cold air may result in some precip Mon, but warmer Mon PM and probably Tue. Next cold front will likely arrive either Wed or Thur and with a mid-level trough to the w models hint at some precip Thur.
Temps trending similar to yesterday except in the Srn portion of the CWA where they are trending a little cooler, primarily due to lighter winds and less adiabatic warming effects. Over the next couple of days, strong Ern Pac high pressure will be nudging inland maintaining the chance of seeing some record maxes in our CWA through Fri. Records in the Nrn Sac Vly for the 7th and 8th are in the low 80s, seemingly out of reach, but lower to 78 on the 9th, back within reach.
/issued 239 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ (Today and Thursday) Quiet weather in the short term, with the upper level trough having passed the area. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
IFR ceilings will persist overnight in the wake of a cold front moving south across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will be located just east and south of the forecast area at the beginning of the period and continues moving away from the area overnight.
Just approaching our southeast Alabama counties this evening is the cold front and with it will be another round of light to moderate rain, but no thunder or severe weather. This is likely due to the fact that the low-level jet (and associated convergence) will be pulling northeast out of the region, combined with a stabilizing airmass. Lows will bottom out in the middle 40s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, low 50s from Valdosta through Tallahassee, and the low 60s in the southeast Big Bend.
856 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Surface winds continue to collapse this evening, indicative of the low-level ridge axis settling overtop the area ahead of the next front. Pressure gradient will collapse tonight as high pressure ridge moves east over the open Atlc and a weak front approaches from the north.
959 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 As low pressure moves away to the east, an area of high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Models picking up on some limited fetch and moisture through the night, so will continue with the chance pops along the lake Michigan shore, but by Thursday morning, the a trough in the 1000-850 mb layer wind moves in, and produces some minor lake effect snow.
558 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure centered over southeast Nebraska will continue to move southeast tonight and Thursday. Cold air over the Plains associated with this high will continue filtering into the mid Mississippi Valley region into the evening. Mid clouds over the Plains should overspread much of the area tonight as the ridge axis moves into central Illinois. The clouds combined with increasing southerly flow should keep temperatures from bottoming out too low, and MOS guidance is a few degrees warmer than what was previously forecast. This should allow temperatures to warm back to near or even above normal in the low to mid 40s across most of the area south of the snow field.
646 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure only sticks around for a brief stay Thursday.
High pressure will prolong mild and dry weather through the weekend.
921 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure will build overhead overnight through Thursday.
This will allow drier air to spread southward, with showers tapering off from west to east overnight and pushing at least the low and mid level clouds off to the south through Thursday morning.
Difficult travel conditions will follow the Highway 93 corridor southward from Eureka to the southern Mission Valley throughout Thursday afternoon.
903 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Scattered flurries or snow showers are expected through part of Thursday with an upper level trough.
North winds have dominated the region with the cold front from last night well through the area. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the middle of the country with south-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front stretched from the Gulf across Deep South Texas into Mexico and then up to the Big Bend region. Behind the front winds were from the north across our CWA bringing cooler, drier air. The upper level trough axis will move past our CWA this evening and dry weather will return. Low temperatures tonight will drop below freezing across most of the northern third of the area with middle to upper 30s elsewhere. Thursday night the low level flow will become south to southeasterly bringing moisture back to the region.
621 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 The cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure ridging into the area from the north Thursday.
943 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 The cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure ridging into the area from the north Thursday.
Light snow will develop tonight along a cold front positioned through North-central MT. A mix of rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain are all possible at lower elevations tonight in a broad area around Great Falls.