Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level long wave ridge will slowly push east today with a weak upper trough slowly moving through the Dakotas during the day and tonight. A few of the high res models bring some precip across far southeast ND by early evening and have included some low pops in that region. Broad ridging over western CONUS will maintain above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
1047 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Cool and dry weather is expected this weekend under high pressure.
607 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Cannot rule out a few drops to MVFR or IFR from patchy fog this morning at UTS and CXO where dew point depressions are the lowest, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail with a few cirrus around FL250 moving overhead. /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Southeast Texas remains dry with little temperature change (below normal readings) over the weekend as high pressure stays in control while Hurricane Irma works her way north- ward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula area.
A wedge of high pressure will continue to build in from the northeast in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
Models continue to try to hint at some light rain showers across portions of the area this morning, however with dry air in the low levels believe that this is overdone and went with a dry forecast this morning.
337 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
437 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 The much advertised western CONUS trough has developed a positive tilt, and extends through the Great Basin south-southwestward to southern California this morning. As this trough continues to move east, cooler temperatures as well as increased precipitation chances and cloud cover are on tap for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Falling heights ahead of the trough will yield temperatures today noticeably cooler than over the weekend, with highs expected to top out in the 70s west to 80s east, with 60s in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and 90s hanging on through the Rio Grande Valley.
Another, stronger short- wave trough will bring a chance for severe thunderstorms to part of southern and central Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. South central and southeastern Oklahoma are expected to be under the influence of another wave emanating from the upper low over the southwestern U.
224 AM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Upper level trough over the Great Basin showing signs of splitting in latest water vapor imagery with weak circulation developing over east-central Nevada. Focus remains north of Interstate 70 as we could see a few inches of new snow across the Eastern Uinta Mountains and over the Park and Gore ranges later today as the trough advances through the region. Could see several inches of new snow pile up over the highest peaks of the San Juans, but significant impacts at Pass level are not anticipated and snowfall amounts are expected to taper down rather quickly as we work below 11k.
A positively tilted trough extending from southern California through central Montana will move eastward today. Due to extensive cloud cover and limited mixing, kept highs in the 40s most areas, from the lower 40s northern Nebraska, to the low 50s far southwestern zones. Northwest flow aloft will dominate as a large upper level low pressure system becomes anchored over Hudson Bay.
Do expect at least a few hours of VFR before CIGs return overnight tonight, however, winds in the lowest 1km of the atmosphere should be much more elevated tonight versus yesterday and should temper the lowering of CIGs compared to last night. The upper level pattern is starting to transition to southwesterly flow over Texas as a trough digs down along the west coast.
Tomorrow, the positively tilted Pacific trough to our west begins to deepen as it moves across SOCAL and the Desert SW. Thus, tomorrow will be slightly cooler area wide with highs in the 70s across the South Plains and 80s across the Rolling Plains and SW winds will increase during the afternoon. Even with cooler temps the deep SW flow will limit moisture across the NW portions of the CWA resulting in RH values falling to the upper teens tomorrow afternoon.
Some instability rain/snow showers will remain possible today thru this afternoon with very cold temperatures aloft associated w/ the upper-level trough. We stayed close to consensus guidance since we just do not have a good idea of actual snowfall amounts, and plus with the higher sun angle the new snow- pack may dwindle pretty quickly. Otherwise, highs today should range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Mostly sunny & some-what warmer for Tuesday as the aforementioned system departs further to the east. A rather deep upper trough will influence much of the CONUS at mid-week, which shifts slowly eastward by the end of the week.
Upper level trough continues to slide to our south and east with drier conditions and much warmer weather making a return towards midweek. Upper level trough responsible for scattered snow showers yesterday continue to push east and south into UT/AZ. High pressure will be building back into the area starting today.
307 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A wet day is expected as closed low pressure across southwest KS opens and moves northeast, becoming an inverted trough/surface cold front through the day. We finally get to see the sun again on Tuesday with decreasing clouds, northwesterly surface winds, and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s high high pressure moving in.
1038 PM PDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Dry and warmer weather is expected for this coming work week. In wake of the departing interior Wrn States/ Great Basin trof, Nly flow will result in some locally breezy conditions in our CWA for the next couple of days. JHM A ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the region each day through the first half of this week. Warmer temperatures are forecast each successive day getting well into the 70s by Tuesday and near 80 degrees over the north end of the valley.
Gusty southeasterly winds are occurring ahead of the low across the area early this morning as the pressure gradient is tightening across the region. Wind gusts around 30 mph can be expected into this afternoon ahead of the low, especially across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. A surface warm front will then spread across the area this afternoon into early this evening.
Large scale subsidence and dry air beneath upper ridge should ensure abundant sunshine today. Have placed the highest POPs of 80-90 pct across the northwest counties, closest to axis of low level jet over the Grt Lks, with only a slight chance of rain reaching the southeast counties by late day.
Air mass across our CWA is rather dry at the moment, with dew points in the low-mid 20s in most cases. Most of the models are in agreement with a cold front pushing through much of the CWA on Tuesday.
409 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Warmer temperatures are expected this week. Quiet weather continues today with the upper ridge axis settling in over the region. Temperatures will be warmer than they have been over the last couple of days, but will still remain about five degrees below seasonal values. Precipitation will spread east from low pressure over the Plains tonight. Cloud cover moving in earlier should keep western counties slightly warmer and all rain, while locations generally to the north and east of Pittsburgh could have surface temperatures drop low enough for precipitation to start as freezing rain.
1116 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with center of upper level circulation over ID, and subtle baroclinic leaf over WY. At the surface, low center continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending newd through western NEB and central SD. Mix of rain and snow onto the plains east of the Black Hills with less snow accumulation and less impact on travel for this storm, although across central SD there could be a bit of freezing rain late tonight and early Monday.
Will undercut MAV temps quite a bit in the southern valley where clouds are expected to be persistent and the southeast flow will feed some cooler air in from the wedge east of the Appalachians.
The synoptic situation will keep high pressure ridging over the area today and Tuesday as the front moves west of the area.
An upper level trough/low across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas this evening, with large scale ascent encroaching on the region. Highs today will be well above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.
Latest model ensembles still advertise the heaviest snowfall tonight into Monday to occur just to the north of our area, but there is still a chance that we could see localized 4 to 7 inches on ridges and mountains across northern Carbon and Albany counties as well as closer to the heavier band of snow that will cross extreme northwestern Converse county.
Most of the area is seeing readings right around the freezing mark and we have had drizzle/ice/fog for a good part of the CWA, while rain/ice/snow is moving in from the west/southwest and we also see freezing rain/snow showers over the southern Coteau. Temperatures today will struggle to warm with the stratus in place, and while most should get just above freezing, this is not universal, with the Coteau the main area of focus though this is not exclusive. The split positive tilt mid level trof across the central and western CONUS at the beginning of the period should consolidate into a full latitude trof across the central CONUS during the period.
Beginning Tuesday afternoon, will continue to carry gradually rising rain chances as the storm system and associated cold front begin to work their way towards our part of the state.
Winds have been gusty from the east to southeast which, while advecting richer moisture into the High Plains, have kept the boundary layer somewhat mixed. The GFS continues to show the boundary layer mixing out with warmer temperatures across the area, especially near the Oklahoma border. The NAM doesn't mix out near as much and subsequently shows much cooler temperatures. Tonight, another cold front will push south into the central High Plains as the northern portion of a large positively tilted upper trough moves out over the northern High Plains. Clouds and winds should be decreasing in the afternoon as high pressure moves into the region.
259 AM PDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will build over the region this week, bringing dry and much warmer conditions through the end of the week. An upper level trough will move into Arizona this afternoon, leaving central California in a north-northeasterly flow aloft. This will result in locally breezy northeast winds in the mountains and desert areas this afternoon through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The high will build along the west coast through the end of the week keeping dry weather over the region.
Strengthening pressure gradient in response to ejecting lee surface pressure trough will result gusty winds of 25 to perhaps 30 mph this afternoon as the environment becomes increasingly well-mixed under full insolation.
The higher wind speeds will likely persist through the end of the period. This surface boundary will continue to slowly lift to the Northeast as a warm front rain chances will be through Monday with any rain chances generally along and to the Northwest of Interstate 30. trough of low pressure aloft amplifies South and a closed low forms over the Desert Southwest as the system become separated from the Northern stream.
Our area will be under fairly strong southwest flow aloft, as an upper trough deepens into the southwestern part of the country on Monday. At this time, we are keeping PoPs on the low side (20-30 percent). Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the mid 60s, with highs on Monday in the lower to mid 80s.
A vort max and wave of low pressure will accompany the upper jet. Some fog development tnt as the wave of low pressure slowly moves across the area within moist conditions.
1115 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Today is very similar, weather-wise, to yesterday with the only real difference being the upper level trough to our west being closer. The best returns are well to our west where the trough and weak front remain. Shortly after sunset, some showers should pick up over the Flat Tops and central mountains, maybe a few down in San Juans, but amounts will be on the low side. At the highest elevations, maybe a dusting of snow upwards to an inch. Tomorrow, the slow moving trough will be over the forecast area and will be the focus of isolated to scattered showers. High temperatures on Monday will be a bit cooler thanks to northerly wind flow ushering in cooler air.
351 AM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Freezing fog may make another return this morning, especially along the Milk and Yellowstone river valleys and areas from Glasgow east to the North Dakota border. An approaching upper level trough will move across northeast Montana today but am not expecting much precipitation with this, perhaps a chance of snow across Wibaux and Prairie counties. Starting Tuesday, an unsettled pattern will set in across the region, with northeast Montana caught in between a low pressure area across northern Canada and an area of high pressure off of the Pacific coast, with persistent northwest flow aloft throughout.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge axis lies near our county warning area with a trough of low pressure draped across north central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Although the persistent and nearby deep tropospheric ridge will be eroded appreciably, no significant mid and upper level disturbance appears likely to pass through our region.
1038+ mb high pressure over SE Canada will extend down the eastern seaboard today and tonight.
The airmass behind this low will not be all that cool, and in fact highs Monday will be warmer than today for a fair portion of western and central Kansas. Early in this period, a positively-tilted trough axis will move across the Rockies and the adjacent Great Plains, leading to minimal precipitation chances across much of southwest Kansas. Far western Kansas stands the best chance at any light accumulating precip, but by far the most widespread moderate accumulating precipitation will remain west across the higher terrain of Colorado with this system passage late Monday Night into Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be in the low 70s across much, if not, all of the area. Upper level trough over the southwest US will slowly move eastward on Tuesday, with upper level impulse approaching during the afternoon.
228 AM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Vigorous upper level trough and associated double impulse continues to advect NE across the FA this morning. Massive western NOAM ridge will dislodge arctic air into interior Canada, with a backdoor cold front pushing into the area by late week. Temps will warm Tues into the 40s and 50s most places, with a cooling trend into the weekend as nw flow impulses bias the cooler air south.
Upper low continues to move east of the forecast area into Idaho. Upper ridge is building offshore with a northwest flow aloft over the region. Heights and freezing levels will rise a little which will push snow levels up another 1-2k feet. An upper level trough will move into ID this evening. Northwest flow will develop over WA and OR tonight and Monday as an upper ridge builds offshore. This will be a dirty ridge with some moisture moving over it into the CWA tonight through Tuesday. mainly in the mountains though a few sprinkles are possible in the lower elevations. As the upper level ridge builds offshore warmer air aloft ahead of the ridge will push surface temperatures into the 40s and 50s Monday.
The south winds will result from development of low pressure and a frontal zone out over the plains that will be moving our way by midweek.
116 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Warmer temperatures are expected this week. Quiet weather continues today with the upper ridge axis settling in over the region. Temperatures will be warmer than they have been over the last couple of days, but will still remain about five degrees below seasonal values. Precipitation will spread east from low pressure over the Plains tonight. Cloud cover moving in earlier should keep western counties slightly warmer and all rain, while locations generally to the north and east of Pittsburgh could have surface temperatures drop low enough for precipitation to start as freezing rain.
To the west across SE ND there exists a slight threat for some freezing rain or drizzle before ice nucleation aloft completes the seeder feeder process so a glaze of ice is possible before a change over to snow. Snow tapers off from west to east this evening with some patchy freezing drizzle possible in MN as low level stay saturated and lift diminishes. A trailing cold front will bring another round of wintry mix and rain to northeastern ND, the northern River Valley, and northwestern MN. While a mix of rain/snow/sleet is likely north of the Highway 2 corridor, forecast soundings suggest sufficient warming in the low and mid levels to support rain further south.
344 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure today. Warm front Monday night/Tuesday.
High pressure building near the West Coast will maintain dry weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.
316 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure builds into the the region through Tuesday.
Front will move South of the forecast area this morning, as strong high pressure builds to the North. A significantly cooler than normal day is anticipated Today, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near the Altamaha to the lower 70s near Ocala. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: An upper level ridge will be centered over the central Gulf through Tuesday night. However, the northern portion of the ridge axis will pivot northeastward across the region and up the eastern seaboard through Tuesday night. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over Newfoundland will stretch southwestward over the Northeast states Tuesday morning.
232 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure today. Warm front Monday night/Tuesday.
The only exception to this is at KFSM, which will see the highest TSRA probabilities after 27/12Z. Winds should shift to the north by early tomorrow morning at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS behind the cold frontal passage. /Issued 320 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ Quiet night so far across the forecast area, although have seen an uptick in convection across southeastern KS along the nose of the low-level jet. The better chances of widespread convection still looks to hold off until later today and into the overnight hours as dryline activity eventually spreads northeast along the slowly advancing cold front. 5", and southwesterly low-level flow will be favorable for training along the advancing cold front.
1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Currently across the area we have upper level ridging with a trough out in the western U. The trough out west will begin to sharpen with strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up over the region. In the lower levels, strong warm air and moisture advection will develop with elevated convection expected late this evening into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings show snow as the dominate precip type today, with some light freezing rain/drizzle across Dickey, LaMoure and McIntosh Counties possible later this afternoon.
In addition, mid-level moisture will get stripped out overnight, leading to light rain or drizzle, which could freeze in spots where surface temperatures approach the freezing mark in parts of Vilas and northwest Oneida counties.
With much warmer temps tomorrow through tomorrow night and southerly winds, lots of melting will take place, adding lots of moisture into the lower levels. High pressure ridge is extending back into the Midwest from Eastern Canada this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies resulting going into the overnight. The upper ridge over the Midwest shifts slightly to the east putting the region into a more southwesterly flow regime, with a series of short waves rotating around the deep trough over the southwestern CONUS. with the higher QPF expected Tuesday. In that time frame, the warm air advection brings the highs up to near 60 for Tuesday, even as the rain continues.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific slowly builds over eastern California and western Nevada through midweek.
Weakening cold front coming through today will shift winds to NE and provide some VFR BKN clouds in the afternoon. /issued 828 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing a backdoor cold front pushing southwest into northeastern Florida. Mid Atlantic high pressure will slide south towards Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, with light winds turning to easterly and increasing by Monday morning. The ridge of high pressure will gradually slide south through the middle of the week, with winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico turning to southerly and becoming lighter through late in the week.
Cool NE surface flow prevails across most of the Mid-South with temps ranging from the upper 30s toward Paris TN to the lower 50s over parts of North Mississippi. Expect scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms this morning as the surface front lifts back north as a warm front. An upper low over the SW US will continue to move east tonight with the upper ridge over the SE US building. Some warm advection showers may develop over western sections ahead an approaching cold front.
A slow moving cold front will arrive from the northwest.
602 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
601 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure today. Warm front Monday night/Tuesday.
320 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Quiet night so far across the forecast area, although have seen an uptick in convection across southeastern KS along the nose of the low-level jet. The better chances of widespread convection still looks to hold off until later today and into the overnight hours as dryline activity eventually spreads northeast along the slowly advancing cold front. 5", and southwesterly low-level flow will be favorable for training along the advancing cold front.
401 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Wx map shows low pressure over the TX panhandle, and high pressure over the Eastern U. ridging south and southwestward across the SE U. More of the same weather is expected today with winds picking up by late morning, and mostly cloudy skies, temps reaching the lower 80s. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough digging across the Western U.
533 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will build southward into New England today and will remain put through Tuesday setting the area up with a few sunny days.
354 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Swly flow aloft continues to take shape across our region, as large-scale upper trof digs sewd across srn CA. However, as we move into Tuesday, a slow-moving cold front will begin to serve as a focus for more widespread convection, initially across portions of N TX/central OK. This will gradually spread ewd into our region as the now closed upper low/cold front inch ewd.
244 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will build southward into New England today and will remain put through Tuesday setting the area up with a few sunny days.
A low pressure system will move across Arizona Monday and Tuesday bringing colder weather with a chance for rain and mountain snow showers. Brief accumulations of less than an inch is expected expect for the highest of terrain that may see slightly more precipitation.
Not much of a temperature change behind the boundary - in fact, clear skies/slack winds across the far south has resulted in cooler temps there (U50s) compared to the post-frontal marine-modified air mass to the north (L-M60s).
306 AM MST Mon Mar 26 2018 A dry low pressure system will move through the region early this week bringing slightly below normal temperatures through Tuesday and breezy to windy conditions.
Snow was lifting north and east through southeastern portions of the area early this morning as a disturbance ejecting from the base of an upper low centered over southeastern Idaho worked into the region. Up to a couple inches of snow look possible for the lower elevations, with higher amounts over the mountains.