Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY. A LEESIDE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER ERN CO AND NERN NM AS UPPER LEVEL QUASI ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS IN STORE ON SUNDAY.
1039 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) - RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS. WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WAS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.
MAYBE SOME READINGS NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY? REAL SUMMER HEAT MAY BE JUST AROUND THE CORNER. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT ON SLIDING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY.
The low clouds will breakup early this afternoon and mainly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of TAF forecast.
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND BACK OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
1005 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER GA/SC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WSW FLOW AND A HOT/HUMID ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE LONGER HEATING DAY WILL COINCIDE TO ONCE AGAIN LIFT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 73 94 72 / 20 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 71 92 70 / 20 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 93 71 91 70 / 20 20 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 68 89 67 / 30 20 40 30.
643 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME REMNANT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THIS TAF PERIOD.
A FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THUS A RISK FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT THEN INCREASE ON THU AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING THE RAIN TO AN END NW TO SE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING BUT A FEW SHRA COULD TRY AND LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI AS THE DRIER AIR MAY NOT GET PUSHED QUITE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH BY THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA IS RESULTING IN A DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 15F ABOVE CLIMO.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA CONTINUES TODAY. GIVEN RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.
1254 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN LEADING TO NOT QUITE AS HOT TEMPERATURES. WV LOOPS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY/SRN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND THEN ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH S/W ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR GLACIER PARK WHERE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT PROVIDES UPSLOPE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
WITH EVEN LESS CUMULUS BUILDUP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AND WHEN/IF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND HOW QUICK STRATUS BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND HOW QUICK STRATUS BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES.
LATTER AREA COULD SEE SOME THUNDER MOVE INTO IT TONIGHT AFTER INITIATING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NERN NM.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION SHOULD REACH THE IRON RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
947 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN LEADING TO NOT QUITE AS HOT TEMPERATURES. WV LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A RESULT OF UPPER ENERGY RIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPS COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OR REMNANTS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY.
LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 WERE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO THE COOLER FLOW FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION SHOULD REACH THE IRON RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WERE STORM CLOUDS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WERE BLEEDING INTO THE STATE. HIGHS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW APPARENTLY STRETCHED EAST-WEST OVER CENTRAL IL WITH COOLER AND LITTLE DRIER DPS NORTH OF BOUNDARY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH TODAY AS STRATUS BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH BACKED SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
623 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 150 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SERN U.
At 04Z observations showed a weak area of low pressure along the NEB and SD state line with a weak boundary trailing into northeast CO. Highs today are expected to be a little warmer with better insolation anticipated across the northern sections of the forecast area. Because of this have highs in the lower 80s.
Localized heavy rainfall, especially over the southern half of the forecast area, where the highest precipitable water values remain, will continue to be a concern.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY.
BASED ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WE ARE NOT DONE WITH THE RAIN YET.
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER IN ALL AREAS TODAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SWLY.
859 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 TODAY IS A WELCOME BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
912 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST ATTM. OTHERWISE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS. WHILE FLAT RIDGING ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL INTENSIFY LEE SIDE TROFFING THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HELP PULL DEEP PLAINS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE TERRAIN EARLY AND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING SURFACE TROF COMING OFF THE FOOTHILLS LATER. MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW DOWN THE HIGHER PROBABILITY AREAS ONCE WE GET A LOOK AT THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TONIGHT.
738 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. H5 HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14.
INLAND FLOODING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVER HALF OF ALL FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION.
1111 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
REACHING THE LOWER 60S TOWARD EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS DRY AS THE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
POPS BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW BUT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS TROPICAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA INTO ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PREFONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. LIKELY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS INTO THAT PORTION OF NORTHERN AL.
1008 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
1101 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. 7 INCHES WITH ENHANCED LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOWER LEVELS TO THE MID-LEVELS. /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015/ EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. H5 HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14.
MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO FAR NW KS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER FAR SE KS WITH LABETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. BOTH MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS ROBUST IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
737 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS REACH INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY. THE SEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH REGIONAL 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 595DM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
707 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 TODAY IS A WELCOME BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB AND 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ORIENTATION AND DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRIMARY VARIABLE THAT CHANGES WILL BE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE LOWEST LEVELS, THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING NORTHERN WINDS, WHICH MAY ACT TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED MORE OR LESS IN PLACE TO WHERE THEY FORM. THE LAKE SEMINOLE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONVERGENCE OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THIS NORTHERN FLOW.
TAKING A SHARP NEWD TURN AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO CENTRAL OK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BROUGHT THE CENCAL REGION A NICE DOSE OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FILLED AND THE FRONT IS PUSHING EAST RAPIDLY INTO THE PAC NW. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
327 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015 DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH WARMING ON MONDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
941 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING NE WY INTO NW SD WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
526 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 139 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WE WILL SEE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEK LONG AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.
848 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40 OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN.
THE CENTER OF RATHER LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EVENING TEMPERATURES ON SAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WAS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
1012 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 QUIET WEATHER AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 40 55 51 / 0 10 60 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 36 56 51 / 0 10 40 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 37 54 51 / 0 10 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 32 54 48 / 0 10 20 70.
DENSE FOG FORMED DURING THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER BASIN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
311 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED TROF MOVING EAST OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES ALONG THE HIGHER PASSES IN BLOWING SNOW. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLOW SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. A QUICK MOVING WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS EASTWARD WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
320 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED TROF MOVING EAST OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES ALONG THE HIGHER PASSES IN BLOWING SNOW. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLOW SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THOUGH RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. INDICATING A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
338 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THOUGH RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. INDICATING A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
330 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EASTWARD. NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE WEATHER TODAY SKIES EVERYWHERE BUT THE NORTH SLOPES WILL BE AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF YDYS TROF.
627 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN WASHINGTON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND KITTITAS VALLEY SO WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD SNOWS AT LEAST EARLY ON ALONG THE OREGON EAST SLOPES BUT SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4500 FEET. A STRONG SUB 990 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE PROVIDING PROTECTION FROM THESE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
516 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST KY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3.
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST KY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3.
634 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
633 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
FREEZING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY FURTHER SUPPORT THE LOWER DECK MATERIALIZING.
644 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STREAMING OFF THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME CLOUDS BASED AROUND 4KFT THAT HAVE BEEN WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
424 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
520 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40 OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN.
/issued 306 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/ Unseasonable warmth will be even moreso today as the low level thermal ridge amplifies underneath dry w-sw flow aloft. Christmas day will probably be the last warm day, thereafter an upper low develops within the initial southern stream of split flow. As typical there's still alot of uncertainty in the solution with 00Z GFS developing a cutoff low in nrn Mexico and ECMWF lifting the low out quickly Sat.
UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING DOWN TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WITH POTENT VORT IN SRN CA/AZ. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD TODAY AND MONDAY THIS SHOULD REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
947 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS VERY STRONG WITH 850 MB WINDS 45 TO 55 KT IN THE ADVISORY AREA. FOG MAY FORM AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-44 NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES MOVING EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
559 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.