Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FLATTENING AND HAD MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND WAS EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN NORTHERN MEXICO. A TROUGHING PATTERN WAS FOUND. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHICH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRI.
120 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
LARGE 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND THEN BACK WEST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST/WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL YIELD DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. AND WARMER READINGS ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
A fairly weak cold front will make its way south late this afternoon and tonight across Kansas. After the surface front moves through late tonight, there will be a 1 or 2 hour period where winds will be quite gusty from the northeast, but by Thursday morning, winds will likely decrease to at or below 10 mph with the high pressure center quickly approaching. A fresh, cooler airmass will be in place Friday with light winds continuing through the day leading to a very delightful day. Drier conditions are expected across western Kansas by late Friday as the cold front moving through western Kansas late Thursday pushes further south into the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. Cooler and drier air will filter southward into the region reducing low/mid level instability and bringing an end to precip chances Friday afternoon.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THERE COULD BE SOME FROST AND/OR FOG.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND THE HIGHER RES HRRR AND WRF MODELS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ERN MTS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON QPF OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY TO THE WEST AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
1245 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2015 Low clouds and areas of fog will give away to just cloudy skies today and tonight as weak high pressure builds into the area. Mid and High streaming through the ridge over the area are dense as well which is inhibiting daytime heating, so have lowered some of the forecast high temperatures with this late update.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
A STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE DRAWING WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FROM FAR SOUTH TX (AS PER WV LOOPS FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AROUND FAR WEST TX). WITH THE APPROACH /PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FROPA WILL BE AIDED BY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE (INCREASINGLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT) AS THE MAIN CLOSED LOW SLIDES BACK TO THE WEST. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT) AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FCST SET TO MOVE IN TO SE TX AROUND NEXT TUES. 41 A LIGHT WIND REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST A WARMER AND MORE MOIST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SERN U. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
302 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL YIELD DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. AND WARMER READINGS ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY FRI MORNING.
638 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
354 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING HOT.
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COOL.
SFC WINDS HAD BEGUN TO GUST ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN WHERE TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHERE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WAS IN EASTERN ND WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING. THE PATTERN THE STARTS TO CHANGE GOING INTO SAT AS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
228 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW MID CLOUD DECK UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS WHICH HAVE BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO ERN SD AND SW MN. BUT APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE LIMITING FEATURE.
The upper low that has brought 0. Friday, the upper low will retrograde west with decreasing rain chances from NE to SW throughout the day.
602 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND (UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID 80S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS.
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Models are in good agreement this morning as to the track of the upper low now over the Desert Southwest. The center of the upper low is now moving south from southeastern Arizona into northern Mexico west of the Big Bend area. By tomorrow morning the center of the upper low will be over the southern portion of the Gulf of California. Precipitation associated with the upper low now extends over eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandle south into West Texas.
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES AND POINTS WEST. THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW WOBBLING OVER NRN MEXICO, H5 FLOW IS FROM THE SW, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W/SW PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER AR IS PROVIDING S/SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST STATES.
227 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TONIGHTS APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW.
128 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PRODUCING FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT TO NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE NRN STREAM SHRT WV TROF DIGGING INTO AREA LATE FRIDAY. WITH SRN PORTION OF TROF BECOMING CUT OFF.
AND AS LI VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND THE PINE RIDGE IN NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/SIOUX COUNTIES. WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE 09/18Z FCST CYCLE AS ANY FLOW FROM GULF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED INVOK WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH JUST AFTER END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ/NM. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH IT WILL COME A COLD FRONT AND SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS DURING FRIDAY.
For tonight, attention will turn northwest toward a cold front which is currently draped across portions of Iowa. Otherwise, the front will bring cooler and drier weather into the region Friday night.
1244 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 AM CDT DEPICTS A MODEST UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO COLORADO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT STRATUS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
242 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 A cold front extended northeast to southwest across northeast Kansas at 19 UTC. The next issue concerning precipitation will be from the mid-level upper trough which is forecast to move through the area tonight. After the upper trough moves through early Friday, skies should clear quickly due to subsidence and dry air.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN JUMPING INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AS GOOD MIXING OCCURRING. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY CLEARING CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY GOOD MIXING TO 875 MB AND NEAR SFC SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
416 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A cold front will push into NE OK around midnight and through west central AR Friday morning.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE PENINSULA BUT LEAVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SONORA MX CONTINUES A S/SE MOTION IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CA COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST TO SW THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS BUT STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 70S AND STILL SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST.
243 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
306 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH CRESTS RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF SRN WI EARLY. WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD.
HIGHS WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
1038 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2015 Low clouds and areas of fog will give away to just cloudy skies today and tonight as weak high pressure builds into the area.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ATOP THE REGION. DESPITE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE STRONGEST WAA WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
435 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
A cold front that extends from the eastern Dakotas into western NEB will move through the region tonight. Mild/warm weather will occur today with temperatures similar to or slightly warmer than yesterday. In general, measurable rain chances are a blend of guidance, in the 40-70% range with the highest/best chances over the western cwfa. Friday will be much cooler with clouds hanging on for part of the day.
609 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AMPLE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE OF IT'S INFLUENCE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEAK RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION THRU LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
118 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IN STORE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FRIDAY EVENING.
Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead of the trough. This trough will then sag slowly southeast through the CWA late this afternoon through this evening. However, with a lack of forcing and weak convergence along the front, there may be very little if any precip along the trough. This will force an effective cold front into the area and will provide a better chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms with the best potential occurring after midnight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This front should clear the southern CWA by early tomorrow morning ushering in dry and cooler conditions.
THEREFORE KEPT LOWS A BIT WARMER OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND DID NOT GO TOO FAR EAST WITH FROST ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM BE A BIT LOWER TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MID 30S AS READINGS ARE UP NORTH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE U. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND 10 TO 15 MPH MEAN FLOW THROUGH 5000MB/850MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL CONVERGENT SHOWERS ANY TIME TONIGHT. LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ADVANCING FROM THE WEST DIGS SOUTH TOWARD FLORIDA.
High pressure will slowly build back into western Montana and central Idaho tonight into Friday. Under the ridge, drier air will slowly work its way into the region.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU.
ANOTHER PROBLEM WL BE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR TNGT INTO FRI MORNING. THESE N-NW WINDS ARE A FAVORABLE TRAJ COMING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND RISING UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRI AFTERNOON.
246 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 RATHER MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 07Z.
325 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL YIELD DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. AND WARMER READINGS ON THE RIDGES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
211 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY. PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THOUGH 00Z ECMWF CONTINUING TREND OF CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW OVER GA/SC WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OUT OF THE STATE.
THEN MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE BREAKING DOWN AS STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY CARVES OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED COASTAL SHRA MAY BE POSSIBLE 12Z FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LINGERING SHRA NEAR KLRD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. CONCUR WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW (WITH 500MB CENTER JUST WEST OF ELP PER MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WL MOVE S/SW ACRS NWRN MEXICO DRG THE PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW/JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MEXICO. ALLOWING THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM TO FLATTEN OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH DAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. A POSITIVELY TILTED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS 596DM RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N 130W.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE LEFTOVERS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TARGET FOR FRI MAXES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT DRY DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT RETURN MOISTURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST BETWEEN 03-06Z/FRI.
329 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNUSUAL FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
328 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 Cold front southwest KS to northwest MO dropping south tonight in northwest upper flow. Quick warm up over the weekend as H5 ridge crest over eastern OK northwest AR.
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SW TX WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND WE ARE ALSO EXPECTED SOME INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE REALITY CHECK IS THAT THE STACKED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA WITH 3 MORE DAYS IN THE BALANCE BEFORE IT PHASES WITH A VIGOROUS TROUGH EXITING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVES EAST.
1249 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AREAS TODAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, SENDING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW- AND MID 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT.
734 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
High pressure will cross the region tonight, making for ideal radiational cooling and possibly our coolest night of the season so far. Have gone with lows 2-5 degrees cooler than this mornings. High pressure to our east Thursday will mean southwest winds and temperatures warmer than today.
957 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FA BY MORNING. ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SUB ZERO (C) 850MB TEMPERATURES SO THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE SO FAR FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FEEL LIKE SUPERBLEND TEMPS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WILL BLEND WITH THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE TO GET TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER.