Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
540 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 The warm weather from the past two days will be coming to an end tonight, with cloudy/cooler conditions forecast for Sunday. That southern low pressure system will bring some precipitation chances to eastern Kansas, east of our area and have kept our forecast dry despite the NAM suggesting a light drizzle potential for our northwest counties. Sunday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy day with noticeably cooler temperatures trending near seasonal normals. The cloud cover and cooler air will hold temperatures primarily in the 30s for highs.
824 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 A ridge aloft over the Bahamas extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico this evening, with a west-southwest flow in place over Florida. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is across the southern part of the peninsula, with high pressure over the southeast. Lows Sunday morning will be a few degrees warmer than this morning. A weak front over the region will dissipate as high pressure builds north of the region, with winds veering from northeast to southeast through Sunday. This area of high pressure will shift eastward a bit but continue to ridge back across Florida for the next few days, with winds gradually shifting from southeast to southwest.
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over west Texas. This closed low will lift rapidly to the northeast tonight and Sunday opening up and weakening through the period. /22/ Sunday Night through Saturday: With the predominant synoptic pattern for the week ahead featuring an upper-level ridge over the southeastern U. and a trough generally extending from the Upper Midwest toward West Texas, the ArkLaMiss region will spend most of the week in a favorable position to get a few rounds of rainfall.
High pressure to our northeast has been fighting a low to our southwest. Sunday should be dry and warmer as the area is between systems.
301 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern IA, with cold front well south and east of the area at this time. Drier air at the lower levels to the north and east is helping to keep the rest of the area mainly dry. Light snow will continue into the evening over northeast WY and southwest SD, tapering off overnight from north to south as the trough digs further southwest of the region.
643 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Light freezing drizzle expected to continue in the Lake of the Woods area for another few hours as weak upper energy moves out to the east. High resolution model guidance suggests high pressure building in will cause areas of fog to continue developing this evening along the valley. Focus turns to overnight lows and clearing tonight as much of central and wrn ND clear in the low/mid levels. Sfc boundary associated w/ warm front remains near stationary over valley tonight and which should keep NE zones in the mid teens as well as they barely broke the 20 mark this afternoon. More sunshine still expected on Sunday with areas west of the valley around or just above freezing in all but far northeastern ND, which will remain in the mid to upper 20.
659 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will be over the area through tonight and then shift off the Southeast Coast Sunday.
508 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Lowering of VFR cigs is forecast tonight as an upper level low approaches from northern Baja. Clouds will continue to thicken tonight ahead of a low pressure system organizing over southern California. Rain and snow showers will develop over the high terrain of southern New Mexico Sunday morning then expand northward toward the Interstate 40 corridor through Sunday night.
High pressure will build in this evening, keeping our weather quiet tonight into Sunday. High pressure will bring dry conditions to our region tonight and Sunday. A wave of low pressure will slide eastward across the Great Lakes Sunday night.
Gusty northeast to east winds will continue overnight over portions of the western slopes with the favored canyon/ridges getting gusts up around 45 mph or higher. Northerly winds will be lighter on Sunday as the high pressure ridge builds over the region and surface pressure gradients lighten up.
On this date in 2010, the low temperature in Key West fell to 51 degrees. This set the low temperature record for December sixteenth in the city.
Upper level low currently moving across west Texas will lift northeast overnight and spread light rain across the area between about 02-06z. /Issued 347 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ The rain is coming, and the higher clouds have already spread across much of the area. Amounts will be on the light side with the higher accumulations across western Arkansas, where just up to a half inch is possible. The upper storm system responsible for tonight's rain will move quickly east by Sunday, but low clouds and lingering early morning showers across Arkansas will likely hold temperatures down in the low to mid 50s.
Clouds will keep highs a little bit cooler from today, but will still be near normal with readings ranging from around 50 to the mid 50s. Thus lows will only drop to the lower to mid 40s.
Satellite imagery shows trough axis has slipped past East Idaho.
546 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure is moving in for tonight and last into Sunday. A weakening wave of low pressure will move in from the midwest late Sunday. The low pressure over the mid-MS valley will fall apart as it goes into the OH valley and a loss of moisture will kill much of the precip as the feature fills over us and moves eastward Sun night. Many places should stay above freezing.
The main tongue of moisture is still to the west of the area, but should spread eastward and over the CWA as an upper trough ejects northeast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into Kansas. After a brief break, another strong upper trough will slowly move east across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
Warmer temperature can be expected for the coming week. Otherwise, building high pressure will support a quiet night with ensuing warm, relatively moist advection holding lows a few degrees above the seasonal averages.
High pressure will build in over the Great Basin over the next several days with offshore flow and dry conditions over Central California.
758 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
1013 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will be over the area through tonight and then shift off the Southeast Coast Sunday.
Less coverage in the southern most counties has allowed temperatures to fall a little further than previously forecast, so we could see some low temperatures early Sunday morning dip close to freezing in those areas. Have updated the low temperature forecast to reflect this. An upper level high pressure ridge will move from west to east across TN this afternoon and tonight. Rain chances will increase quickly early Sunday morning as a weakening trough moves out of TX and toward the MS/OH Valley region.
Water vapor satellite images show an upper level low pressure system moving over west Texas and to the northeast.
510 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Sunday. Cooler weather returns again late in the week as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the region. A weak wave in the westerly 500 MB flow aloft pushes into the ridge late Sunday night, and will bring clouds across the CWA overnight.
A large cool area of high pressure across the deep south will move to the North Carolina coast by Sunday morning. Temps appear on track with lows in the lower/mid 40s inland and near 50 degrees along the coast. Light Northeast flow tonight will become East to Southeast on Sunday as high pressure moves offshore of the U.
546 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 An upper level low is currently over western Texas and moving northeastward tonight. Clouds will hang around most of the day on Sunday with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than today. The area will remain in a pseudo split to zonal flow with a cut off upper level low over the southwestern U.
High pressure builds in for tonight and Sunday with fair weather.
Rain will increase tonight and Sunday as a warm front reaches the area.
A cold front will push through the Mojave Desert this evening, bringing breezy north winds.
Farther N, the low MVFR cigs may linger through the afternoon, before the lower cigs possible redevelop later Sunday night. The main tongue of moisture is still to the west of the area, but should spread eastward and over the CWA as an upper trough ejects northeast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into Kansas. After a brief break, another strong upper trough will slowly move east across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 47 43 60 / 10 60 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 45 40 59 / 0 60 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 31 44 39 59 / 0 60 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 46 37 57 / 0 40 30 10.
Cloudiness will increase tonight as a weak upper level low slides northeast from New Mexico into the Central Plains. A cold front is also progged to bisect the CWA overnight then ooze through the remainder of the CWA tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 20s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 30s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to upper 40s across south central Kansas.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A weak cold front across west Texas this afternoon will progress into and through deep south Texas and the RGV tonight. The upper valley, including the ranchlands and brush country, will be most affected just after midnight, while the lower valley will be most affected just before dawn. The lower valley will likely see locally dense fog from around 3 am to 6 am. Skies will clear out by Monday afternoon as high pressure spreads over the area, with high temps for Monday in the lower 70s, and with overnight low temperatures decreasing into the 40s and lower 50s.
323 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very unclear forecast tonight as strong deepening upper level low moves from the intermountain west into the Central Plains tonight, and into the upper Midwest on Monday. Winds still look to be strong as low pressure system deepens tonight into Monday. IFR to MVFR conditions with drizzle with lift north into KSUX by early afternoon with the lower flight categories continuing through the period as a strong winter storm moves into the area this evening and overight.
Pacific cold front and associated storm system is making a slow arrival into western portions of the forecast area this afternoon as shower activity is becoming better congregated along a pre-frontal trough/dryline feature over Central TX. The cold front should become more visible on the map this evening as the strong mixing from the dynamic upper low to the north relaxes.
105 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
Very high low level shear exists in parts of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which is consistent with local ensembled updraft helicity progs, and as such, the highest chance of a tornado will be located in this region, likely to the south and east of a line from Ozark to Fort Smith to Wilburton to Antlers.
1145 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. Warm,moist advection will continue today over the Upper Ohio Region as the area is in the broad eastern flank/warm sector of deep low pressure emerging from the Four- Corners Region. Warm but damp weather can thus be expected over the immediate area until that system pulls a cold front across the Upper Ohio on Monday night. Precip probabilities for Monday were adjusted for warm frontal positioning, a change which features likely numbers(albeit still for light rain) for northern zones during the morning followed by a transitional period as the low to the west matures.
Much cooler temperatures continue, with a widespread freeze Monday morning. Dry conditions with warmer temperatures most of the week, before a trough brings cooler air and gusty winds late in the week. Clear skies currently under NW flow aloft on the backside of the upper low exiting to our northeast.
1103 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
244 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and pull any light rain to the north with it. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west.
Current surface map shows low deepening over southwest Kansas as upper low moves through the four corners region.
As of mid day today, light drizzle and freezing drizzle had spread eastward across the region with a transition to light snow over eastern Colorado and the eastern Colorado border area. As this system transitions across the region, expect some light ice accumulations to continue in the areas of freezing drizzle mainly east of Highway 27, moving eastward until the transition to snow can occur across the entire forecast area by early this evening.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imager overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm, depict the next developing middle and upper trough and associated cold core low developing over the Central Plains.
1149 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Water vapor imagery showing large upper low across the Desert Southwest this morning, with nighttime microphysics channel highlighting an abundance of low clouds across the lower Missouri Vly in a well-established warm air and moisture advection regime. Quick look at latest observations reveals warming temperatures this morning, setting the stage for what should be a warm afternoon with high temps likely topping out in the lower 60s across much of the area. Periods of light drizzle will remain possible today, before precipitation grows more upscale in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as main cold front approaches from the west. Quick look at area fcst soundings shows a weak capping inversion persisting through the afternoon before increasing lift and the arrival of cooler temps aloft allow for gradual cap erosion.
Upper level ridging tonight will weaken as an upper level low tracks across the central CONUS. As this occurs , upper level winds become southwest while surface winds become southeast and moisture increases across the area ahead of a cold front in the short term. Will see quite a difference in low temperatures for the morning with lows around 50, around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Sunday morning.
302 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Upper low will move from the central Plains this evening, to over western IL by Monday evening. The low level jet is quite impressive into SEMO by 06-09z, 50 to 65+ kts at 850mb.
Warming trends continues with east to southeast low level flow enabling temps to rise to the lower 70s inland with 60s rest of the area. next cold front approaches the area and southerly flow will slowly scour out low clouds and the morning fog. Any shower activity will be confined to mainly outer coastal waters morning/early aftn due to weak trough offshore. While precip associated with the approaching cold front will be moving east quickly over the Gulf coast.
Much cooler temperatures continue today, with a widespread freeze Monday morning. Dry conditions with warmer temperatures most of the week, before a trough brings cooler air and gusty winds late in the week. The upper low is currently near the Colorado/New Mexico border and continues to push eastward.
228 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure currently centered overhead will shift offshore overnight in advance of a cold front. High pressure builds in quickly behind the front.
331 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 AVIATION section updated Low pressure developing over the central plains will move to the great lakes by Monday night and up the St.
Other than a minor ridge/valley temperature split across far eastern Kentucky where clouds may break a bit longer owing to greater moisture lifting north across the Bluegrass region toward the Ohio River, this regime should keep low temperatures spanning the 40s. One more warm day will materialize Monday downstream of the approaching system and associated cold front, with highs topping out in the 60s. Rain showers will continue to taper off toward the east Monday night as the upper low pushes toward the lower Great Lakes.
A closed mid/upper level cyclone will progress from the central High Plains into the western Great Lakes through Monday.
1247 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. Warm,moist advection will continue today over the Upper Ohio Region as the area is in the broad eastern flank/warm sector of deep low pressure emerging from the Four- Corners Region. Warm but damp weather can thus be expected over the immediate area until that system pulls a cold front across the Upper Ohio on Monday night. Precip probabilities for Monday were adjusted for warm frontal positioning, a change which features likely numbers(albeit still for light rain) for northern zones during the morning followed by a transitional period as the low to the west matures.
Expect chances for SHRA and eventually TSRA to increase through this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through the state. Today Through Monday Upper low pressure will move out of the Four Corners Region today and into the Plains by tonight. This low will move through northern Missouri Monday. Strong westerly flow will move into Arkansas as the low passes north of the state. High pressure will build into the area by late Monday.
1239 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will prevail into Monday.
Rain chances will develop from west to east ahead of an approaching cold front. Ridging aloft will continue to build through the forecast area today, as an upper low and trough swings east into and through the nation's mid-section overnight. At the surface, high pressure remains wedged into the CWA from the east through the afternoon, but will begin shifting further east overnight in response to an approaching cold front that'll be on our western doorstep around day break Monday. Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon, look for highs to generally warm into the low and middle 70s. Tonight, look for increasing clouds with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Upper level trough axis is moving into New Mexico this morning. A cold low pressure system over the Four Corners early this morning will continue to move eastward and away from Arizona. Instability showers behind the cold front were far more prolific, widespread and persistent than was previously thought. After today, expect a warming trend as a ridge rebuilds over the southwest.
Strong upper low is pushing a cold front through the Pacific northwest today. Gradients ahead of the cold front will increase southerly winds in many areas this morning into the afternoon. 12z models still showing another fairly significant rain and snow event for the region Tue and Wed as a strong upper low moves through.
Pacific high pressure to reubild across the region allowing for mild conditions through the end of the work week.
132 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front, but turning warmer again late week. Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and pull any light rain to the north with it. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west.
1238 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine.
222 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 The upper low is currently over southeastern Colorado with continued diffluence aloft over eastern Colorado helping to bring heavier snowfall over those areas. Further west, snow is winding down over the mountains as well as the northern urban corridor with the increase in northerly winds downsloping off the Cheyenne Ridge. Temperatures will likely stay in the low 30s over most of the eastern plains, especially where the higher snow amounts are found, while along the urban corridor it should reach into the 40s with the help of the west-northwesterly winds.
Latest satellite images shows closed, but progressive low pressure just now emerging from the four corners, very near the CO/NM stateline. Northeast of this low pressure, nice diffluent flow was evident across the CWFA. Latest VWP from KCYS 88D shows northeast flow of around 15 mph up to 11 kft, which has added to moist ascent into the higher terrain across much of the area. Models are consistent in tracking this closed low pressure area east along the Colorado/New Mexico border thru the day today, reaching western Kansas by sunset tonight. Monday will be mostly dry (exception of small snow chances in the mountains) with high temperatures returning to near freezing.
For tonight, temperatures will be cooler for overnight lows as the Pacific cold front will be east of the area, and will be followed up by a second push of colder air moving in from the north. Expect lows from the low to mid 30s for most of the area. Tomorrow will be cooler and breezy again, but still not quite as windy as this afternoon is expected to be. The upper level low will be moving to the northeast into the Great Lakes region.
A pretty obvious quasi- stationary warm front is located at the northern border of Missouri, and is characterized by temperatures well in the 50s and 60s south of the boundary and temperatures in the 40s north of the boundary. In the mid levels, there is a strong trough upstream of the forecast area, which will approach through the next few hours. The approach of this trough will help increase the coverage of some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. MU CAPE of around 500 J/kg can be expected later this evening and overnight as the trough approaches and the cold air aloft associated with the trough helps to steepen the mid level lapse rates. The dry slot in the mid levels push the area clear of any precipitation overnight as the main trough itself ejects through the area.
257 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Tonight through Monday: Latest rap and satellite analysis shows short wave ridging over the region with an upper trough approaaching the plains. For tonight the closed upper low system will move into the plains along with a squall line ahead of an approaching cold front. It will be a mild night with lows from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. THere will be plenty of shear (30-40 knots in the low levels and 60s knots of deep layer shear), mucape 500-1000 joules and lower 60s dewpoints. THe line and cold front will exit the region by mid afternoon. It will be another mild day with highs from the lower 60s to the lower 70s.
Expect clouds will decrease throughout the afternoon as an upper level ridge amplifies across the region. For now, have gone with MVFR visibilities at TYS and TRI where the low level moisture will be a bit higher.
Expect some clearing overnight as a dry slot wraps around the upper low. The true cold front will sweep across the area early Monday as the upper low transitions eastward. Colder temperatures settle back into the region through mid week before upper level ridging and southerly winds return by late week.
125 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Water vapor shows upper low developing over sern CO, with surface analysis placing low center over western KS. Snowfall will continue to increase this afternoon and evening across south central SD, especially Mellette Todd and Tripp counties, with upper low deepening even further as it tracks east across KS.