Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warmer day is in store across the CWA tomorrow. Enhanced low- level theta-E advection associated with the deepening upper-level low that will pivot across the northern Great Plains will result in temperatures reaching the lower 80s and lower 90s in the northwestern and southeastern areas of the CWA, respectively. By Thursday, a strong cold front is expected to move into the region from the north. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the middle 30s across much of the CWA, potentially to near freezing.
This combination will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s across the area this afternoon alongside south to southeasterly winds. By Wednesday morning, breezy southerly winds will begin to pick up ahead of a deepening low pressure system developing in the lee of the front range of the Rocky Mountains and continue into Thursday. As this system progresses eastwards through the Great Plains throughout Wednesday into Thursday, the attendant warm front will push far to the north of our area.
314 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 The models are slower with the southward progression of a strong cold front dropping through nern WY and wrn SD this morning.
134 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure will provide dry conditions through Thursday.
111 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
352 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Today should be a similar to yesterday albeit a bump in temps back into the upper 80s to 90 as a weak upper level ridge passes overhead. As this high pressure slides farther east, southerly flow wrapping around its west side will gradually bring dewpoints back up into the lower 70s.
439 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 The center of a large high pressure system was over Maine this morning.
240 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
The cold front will begin to approach the FA by late tonight and should begin pushing into our northern zones shortly around or just after sunrise.
Areas along and north of I-44 will receive the highest amounts of rain tonight. As we progress into Thursday, a much larger Storm system will approach the region with an associated cold front.
This weather feature will lift slowly northeast across the region through the midday hours today and eventually spawn a strengthening coastal storm south of the New England Coast during the second half of this week, as upper ridging builds into Pennsylvania.
534 AM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Strong upper trough will continue crossing the northern Rockies today, and then Wyoming tonight. Surface obs and radar show a cold front quickly crossing the CWA. Then this afternoon a secondary cold front will make its way into the CWA from Montana, bringing even colder air with temps steadily falling. especially with the second cold front, then change to snow as temps drop. The upper low will transition across the central to northern Plains Thursday night.
Temperatures will struggle to warm with cloud cover today, so highs are expected to range from the mid 60s to the low 70s. CAMS are not showing much in the way of precip overnight, however, there could be some storms supported by a low level jet in the area of increased moisture ahead of a strong cold front that will bring a noticeable cool down to the area tomorrow. Forecast models have come into better agreement on the timing of the aforementioned cold front, which is expected to arrive in north- central KS Thursday morning and march eastward into eastern KS by the mid-afternoon hours. Surface winds will abruptly shift from a southerly direction to a northwesterly direction behind the cold front.
715 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
Much cooler today with breezy to windy conditions. Cold tonight with all locations significantly below freezing, generally teens and low 20s. Mid to high clouds are spreading in across northern NV early this morning as a cold front drops in from the Pacific NW. Light rain or snow is expected over portions of mainly just Elko County today along and shortly behind the passing cold front. The main impacts with the passing cold front will be increasing northwesterly winds along and behind the front, along with much colder temperatures. In the wake of the passing cold front, much cooler air will move in across northern and central NV. Lows tonight will generally range from the low teens to mid 20s, though some locations may drop into the single digits by early Thursday morning.
Otherwise, expect a warmer day with highs jumping back into the low 90s due to the thermal ridge strengthening. Tonight will be warmer as well, with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.
Skies are mostly clear over the region with colder northerly flow behind the exiting upper level trough. As the upper level trough continues to shift east today, offshore flow will continue to spread east across the east side by the afternoon. With the upper trough moving into the great basin this evening, and an upper trough building offshore, the flow from the surface up to 700 mb brings a cold air mass from northern Canada into the Pacific northwest tonight. This cold and dry air mass will allow clearing to bring low temperaturesdown to near to below freezing in portions of the inland west side valleys and guidance continues to indicate this as well. Easterly flow continues all the way across the east side through the day Thursday with the thermal trough deepening well up the coast.
Others areas across east central FL are also starting to receive rainfall as enough moisture across the area interacts with a weak trough stretching across the area.
A band of snowfall has developed across west- central Montana and north central Idaho this morning associated with an area of low pressure currently centered in northern Clearwater County. The area of low pressure will shift into central Idaho by the early afternoon with snowfall slowly tapering off across west central Montana and north central Idaho. Highs today across western Montana valleys will struggle to reach into the mid to upper-30s, while areas near the Continental Divide in southwest Montana only reach into the low to mid 20s.
It's making decent progress thanks to 10-15 kts of wind in the lowest 1 kft AGL. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 50s. Sheltered rural areas, particularly in the Bluegrass region, may still dip into the lower 50s. Ridging over the region Thursday will continue to the warming trend. as we get to the next cold front approaching the region to close the work week.
446 AM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A strong trough and surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest today. Low temperatures Thursday night will be 20 to 25 degrees below normal and below freezing across the area.
Strong southwest winds will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
By Thursday the main upper trough will be moving out into the high plains, and will help drive a strong cold front into our area during the day.
This feature is associated with an upper level low that is currently digging and moving eastward over the central Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s. Regardless, as this trough sinks southeast, convergence and lift will increase and aid in a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain a bit warmer than average this afternoon then cool off a few degrees Thursday into this weekend. Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows clear skies over Arizona this morning with a deepening upper trough across the northwestern tier of the CONUS. This trough is progged to swing eastward over the next few days, bringing cold, wintry weather to parts of the Northern Rockies and eventually the northern Plains.
307 AM PDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A dry cold front will pass through Central California today, resulting in cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 58 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 57 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 58 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 53 79 53 / 10 10 0 0.
600 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 The center of a large high pressure system was over Maine this morning.
/Issued 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019/ An active couple of days shaping up as a deep upper trough in the Pacific Northwest eventually tracks east across the plains. By late today additional storms may develop across western OK, which will expand east tonight as warm advection begins to strengthen ahead of approaching trough. Strong cold front will be approaching the area by Thursday afternoon with continued northward moisture transport resulting in an axis of moderate instability spreading into eastern OK ahead of the front.
A strong upper level low pressure system digging into the northern Rockies this morning will move east southeast today and tonight. This system will push a strong cold front into western Kansas tonight. It looks like freezing temperatures could be realized across all of the forecast area, including south central Kansas around Pratt and Medicine Lodge.
Lowered POP values for the morning hours, but still a risk of scattered convection developing this afternoon over the eastern waters as weak warm frontal processes take hold.
422 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 A few showers and weak thunderstorms are forming along the axis of the low level jet this morning. ahead of the much anticipated cold front to our west. expect temperatures to once again climb into the lower 70s across much of the area. expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along and just ahead of the approaching cold front during the evening through overnight hours. An impressive cold front will cross the area tonight with temps aloft dropping 15-20 degrees C behind the initial passage. areas across our north may not see afternoon temps rise much above freezing. Because of the high confidence in freezing temperatures behind this front. In addition to freezing temperatures. with a mention of mainly drizzle and light freezing drizzle in spots.
High pressure will continue to build over the southeastern US, keeping us warm and dry today. Expect high temperatures to warm into the low 80s with light southeasterly winds. The main story for the first half of the short term period will be mild and dry weather with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Tonight and Thursday An upper-level southwest flow will remain dominant over Wisconsin through Thursday as an impressive upper-level trough digs across the Northern Plains.
Showers will continue to overspread the area tonight as a deep upper low moves over the Northern Plains. The long awaited cold front will push into northeast Nebraska early Thursday morning, causing temperatures to plummet throughout the day. The best chance for wintry precip looks to be over northeast Nebraska, where snow could mix in with freezing drizzle.
The low stratus deck is still present across a good portion of central Kentucky, though they are eroding away now at a much faster rate. Expect fog to set up again overnight, and could be seen both in the valleys and along the ridges.
248 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Upper level analysis has deep sharp trof across the Northern Rockies with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Significant upper level system in the base of the trof is moving through Idaho at the moment with ample cloud cover over the Northern Plains. At the surface, strong cold front has moved south and east of the forecast area, with breezy northwest winds behind it. As the upper trof crosses the Northern Plains tonight, snow will fall across much of the area.
Across Tucson and the lower elevations, winds have been much lighter. Temperatures through early afternoon are generally in the upper 80s across the deserts and in the upper 70s in the higher elevations to the east.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward tonight. Temperatures will also be warmer tomorrow thanks to the southerly winds. A cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South late Thursday Night.
Look for winds to start increasing tomorrow as the surface pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the approaching cold front, with increasing clouds beginning tomorrow night.
Across the conus high pressure at the surface has become centered over New England with the ridge extending down into the Appalachians and northeast gulf coast. Low pressure will soon be deepening in the plains as an upper trough moves across the Rockies. The return flow has already begun across the region as low pressure develops in the plains and high pressure moves closer to the Atlantic Coast.
A ridge will continue to build and move east across the eastern US. Light winds, dry air and relatively clear skies will allow temps to dip into the low to mid- 60s across the tri-state region (upper 60s for locations along the immediate coast).
The attendent upper level trough has moved eastward into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Downstream of this feature remains a large mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Bahamas. Visibile satellite shows mostly sunny skies over the Lower and Middle Keys. There's still a possibility that outflows from ongoing convection over the southern Mainland could drift south across the island chain and trigger convection in addition to the trough passage. Behind this trough passage, winds will shift to the northeast overnight. High pressure will remain in control through the weekend.
350 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon an expansive midlevel trough remains across the western 2/3rds of the US with weak ridging in the east. On-and-off precipitation and cloud cover has kept temperatures in the low 60s across eastern KS, whereas our western counties have risen into the low 70s. This trend is expected to continue into the evening with persistent WAA ahead of the lee trough extending from eastern CO through western MN. Our focus on Thursday turns to the strong cold front poised to traverse the area.
1059 AM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Strong upper trough will continue crossing the northern Rockies today, and then Wyoming tonight. Surface obs and radar show a cold front quickly crossing the CWA. Then this afternoon a secondary cold front will make its way into the CWA from Montana, bringing even colder air with temps steadily falling. especially with the second cold front, then change to snow as temps drop. The upper low will transition across the central to northern Plains Thursday night.
Will maintain the existing Winter Weather Advisory across the Island Park area as additional snowfall will be possible as the low propagates through the region. As the low moves to the east, the wind and snow will diminish and skies will clear towards daybreak Thursday. High pressure builds across the northern Rockies Thurs/Fri, w/ continued cold temps in the post-frontal airmass.
The upper level trough is centered over Idaho which places the forecast area on the backside under a cold northerly flow. A ridge of high pressure off the coast will begin to nudge inland overnight.
cumulus congestus) over the next hour or so as parcels are able to reach their LFCs along the high theta-E gradient. A multi-cellular storm mode is expected given boundary-parallel wind shear in the low-levels and elongated hodographs; however, near 00 UTC, winds will veer augmenting increased low-level directional shear which could favor a more cellular storm character. Heading into tomorrow, a strong cold front will move through the region and into the CWA in the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, and will fall into the lower 30s across much of West Texas tomorrow night.
A strong cold front will cross the Great Basin Wednesday and move out of the region Wednesday night.
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 The main items of interest in today's forecast will be convective potential/severity tonight and especially tomorrow afternoon and night with a strong cold front, along with heavy rainfall/flooding potential with the front.
Surface and upper ridging expected the next 24 hours. Due to surface ridging, winds will remain light and variable with speeds generally less than 5kts.
The developing lee cyclone moving off of the central Rocky Mountains is enhancing low-level theta-E advection across the southwestern Great Plains. The cold front will begin to approach the FA by late tonight and should begin pushing into our northern zones shortly around or just after sunrise.
Strong southwest winds will continue through early this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
A strong cold front is progged to move through the area tonight into tomorrow morning. The cold front is expected to enter our northwest zones sometime after midnight with it moving through the remainder of the CWA by late morning. Temperatures are not expected to move much tomorrow with the cold front passage with highs ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas. The coldest air of the season is expected Thursday night as high pressure builds into western Kansas.
Scattered snow showers will continue in the higher elevations of Baker County and in the Boise/West Central Mountains this morning. The shower coverage will diminish this afternoon as the upper trough continues to move east.
Trended toward the warmer side of max MOS temperatures.
903 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Temperatures were notably warmer in many areas today than yesterday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0.
As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon an expansive midlevel trough remains across the western 2/3rds of the US with weak ridging in the east. On-and-off precipitation and cloud cover has kept temperatures in the low 60s across eastern KS, whereas our western counties have risen into the low 70s. This trend is expected to continue into the evening with persistent WAA ahead of the lee trough extending from eastern CO through western MN. Our focus on Thursday turns to the strong cold front poised to traverse the area.
Winds behind a strong cold front continue to diminish across the state and have fallen below advisory levels so the wind advisory has been cancelled for central and eastern portions of Nevada. A strong cold front will cross the Great Basin Wednesday and move out of the region Wednesday night.
Temperatures are on track to fall into the low to mid 60s.
For now, given warmer temperatures today, more cloud cover than 24 hours ago, and expected FEW-SCT bases between 6-8k for at least a few more hours, will hold with the TEMPO groups for MVFR visibility restrictions at KTYS and KTRI and 3SM at KCHA.
Still expect some decoupling in the higher valleys near the TN River, where radiational fog can't be ruled out. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward tonight. Temperatures will also be warmer tomorrow thanks to the southerly winds. A cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South late Thursday Night.
Attention will then turn to a stout cold front which will move southward through KCDS, then KPVW and eventually KLBB during the day Thursday. cumulus congestus) over the next hour or so as parcels are able to reach their LFCs along the high theta-E gradient. A multi-cellular storm mode is expected given boundary-parallel wind shear in the low-levels and elongated hodographs; however, near 00 UTC, winds will veer augmenting increased low-level directional shear which could favor a more cellular storm character. Heading into tomorrow, a strong cold front will move through the region and into the CWA in the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, and will fall into the lower 30s across much of West Texas tomorrow night.
Otherwise, forecast remains generally on track as the trough continues to progress eastward tonight.
A dry weather pattern will continue as any significant moisture remains confined to the lower level, at or below 5k ft. Across the conus high pressure at the surface has become centered over New England with the ridge extending down into the Appalachians and northeast gulf coast. Low pressure will soon be deepening in the plains as an upper trough moves across the Rockies. The return flow has already begun across the region as low pressure develops in the plains and high pressure moves closer to the Atlantic Coast.
Will finally get some clearing later Thursday as the low finally lifts off and high pressure builds down the state behind the front.
So far precip seems to be mostly liquid although there will be some snow and maybe freezing rain mixing in across the Devils Lake Basin later tonight.
533 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Upper level analysis has deep sharp trof across the Northern Rockies with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Significant upper level system in the base of the trof is moving through Idaho at the moment with ample cloud cover over the Northern Plains. At the surface, strong cold front has moved south and east of the forecast area, with breezy northwest winds behind it. As the upper trof crosses the Northern Plains tonight, snow will fall across much of the area.
A few clouds remaining over northeast Oregon this evening as the upper low continues to push east with cold northerly flow over eastern Washington and Oregon.
Hathaway High pressure over New England and deepening low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will foster a tightening pressure gradient tonight. Sfc winds will probably struggle to decouple and the additional mixing coupled with continued warm air advection will lead to much warmer temperatures tonight.
strengthening southerly flow out ahead of a large mid-latitude cyclone forming in the Northern High Plains will bring above normal temperatures to the region.
A dry weather pattern will continue as any significant moisture remains confined to the lower level, at or below 5k ft. A dry weather pattern will continue as any significant moisture remains confined to the lower level, at or below 5k ft. Across the conus high pressure at the surface has become centered over New England with the ridge extending down into the Appalachians and northeast gulf coast. Low pressure will soon be deepening in the plains as an upper trough moves across the Rockies. The return flow has already begun across the region as low pressure develops in the plains and high pressure moves closer to the Atlantic Coast.
1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Cold front on schedule to reach the terminals before noon with low cloud deck likely to be delayed behind the front until around sunset. cumulus congestus) over the next hour or so as parcels are able to reach their LFCs along the high theta-E gradient. A multi-cellular storm mode is expected given boundary-parallel wind shear in the low-levels and elongated hodographs; however, near 00 UTC, winds will veer augmenting increased low-level directional shear which could favor a more cellular storm character. Heading into tomorrow, a strong cold front will move through the region and into the CWA in the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, and will fall into the lower 30s across much of West Texas tomorrow night.
The high actually strengthens through the day with light easterly flow.
Scattered light showers may persist across the region during the morning, however the greater coverage of storms will be with passing cold front. Strong wind shift and widespread storms will accompany the cold front with post frontal convection and lower ceilings likely to prevail through the fcst.
430 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The center of a large high pressure system was over northern Maine early this morning. A developing low was over the High Plains with a tight pressure gradient between these 2 systems. Moisture will continue to spread north from the Gulf as the low moves east.