Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours as the 500mb subtropical ridge across New Mexico and Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. Dry atmospheric conditions with high pressure over the region will provide VFR conditions. /issued 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500mb ridge over the western Gulf will provide a rather dry atmosphere over South Texas today before edging west Sunday allowing for a modest increase in moisture. Higher and deeper moisture content over the Gulf, possibly associated with weak inverted trough, and indicated by water vapor satellite tracks gradually west as the mid- level ridge also begins to retreat west.
The weak upper trough is helping to keep the clouds around as well as the light showers. Tonight more north to northeast flow will set up on the south side of the high, and paired with the lingering moisture and light winds could lead to some patchy fog tomorrow morning. For the short term, temperatures will see highs in the low 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. That said, an upper ridge over the west will promote northwest flow aloft over the area. No big signals yet, but would not rule out ridge riders later in the week and weekend to bring convection back.
Chances increase somewhat during the morning as another weak impulse rounding the upper ridge looks to generate another round of storms coming from NE. Confidence in storm chances and coverage through much of Sunday is on the low side.
Hotter through Sunday as the upper ridge amplifies to our east.
Strong warm air advection will also usher in a much warmer airmass bringing 850mb temperatures in the 24C to 30C range.
1256 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the region this evening with cold frontal passage. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of an incoming sfc cold front while the upper trough and its jet support cross the region. Subsidence and drier air will generally bring an end to the precipitation after fropa by this evening, with only iso showers lingering as a result of the nearby proximity of the upper low cold core. The combination of residual moisture, placement of the upper trough, and diurnal heating may squeeze out an iso aftn shower Sunday.
1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Significant upper-level ridging remains intact across a large part of the western & central CONUS today w/ 500 mb heights around 594- 596 dam centered over the 4 Corners. Lee troughing and associated convergence interacting with weak disturbances aloft should support the development of isolated to scattered showers/storms initially along the Laramie Range then increasing in coverage and intensity as they move eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass over the western NE Panhandle during the late afternoon or early evening.
There is some indication with a few of the high resolution solutions that there could be a few additional thunderstorms over higher terrain on Sunday but confidence is much lower than today. Heat Advisory has already been brushed across much of the lower terrain, and believe this to be in great shape.
By Sun AM a shrtwv trof will be located near NE NM/TX PH with what will probably be a large precip shield in that area as well. As said shrtwv trof drifts s later in the morning and during the day Sunday that precip will dissipate with showers/storms possible nearing Hobbs area. There are narrow temperature spreads in NBM data for lows Sun AM and Mon AM and for highs Sun PM, however some of the MOS still is several degrees warmer and if the low dewpoints that GFS depicts materialize it could be warmer than NBM, especially with heights slightly higher than today.
312 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Partly cloudy skies will prevail across central and southeast Illinois tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Highs will top out in the lower 80s.
307 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains.
Sunday's POPs are the last meaningful chance of rain in the 7 day forecast as a dome of high pressure builds in and helps drive temperatures and heat indices higher each day and eventually above normal by the end of the week.
105 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure is settling in from the north across Southeast Michigan, ushering in a drying column. Additionally, some mid-cloud is expected to spill over hte ridge during the afternoon. Thermal troughing still hanging back across lower Michigan will keep highs mostly upper 70s even with some sunshine.
An upper level area of high pressure sits above the Central Rockies with small pieces of energy sliding around its periphery and into the Central Plains.
There is an upper level ridge to the west and there are several waves that move through the eastern side of the ridge and across the area.
Tonight and Sunday Tranquil conditions to persist over the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates our weather. The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure that stretched from the Upper MS Valley through northern sections of the Great Lakes. The high pressure is forecast to essentially settle right over northeast WI tonight, thus another night of clear skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures. Models agree on slowly sinking the high pressure toward southern WI on Sunday and remain in firm control of northeast WI weather. Anticipate another mostly sunny day with slightly warmer temperatures, a slight uptick in dew points and a bit of haze due to the smoke aloft.
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Skies are partly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front extends along the Ohio River through central Missouri and into southwest Kansas. Temperatures will be pretty typical for this time of year with lows mainly in the lower 70s. The cold front will be along the northern edge of the region by Sunday morning with little movement during the day. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Warm and dry weather continues this weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Similar conditions are likely Sunday morning, although any fog may be limited to river valleys and other low-lying areas as temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer. Dry conditions are expected to continue through most of the week, and temperatures will continue to warm as upper level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS.
1242 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 The latest water vapor satellite and associated RAP 500-mb analysis showed an upper high over NM with anticyclonic flow extending northward across the CWA. The overall upper pattern will not change appreciably for the upcoming 5-7 days as high pressure remains over the central/southern Rockies and anticyclonic flow mostly dominates over our CWA.
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights deep, mean-layer ridging across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The TUTT over the Greater Antilles has eroded, denigrating into a nearly closed low moving north towards Bermuda. Closer to home, low-level ridging stretches west across northern Florida. Rising heights on the 12Z FL RAOBs indicate the ridge has regained ground across Florida. Undulations in low-level moisture will ride along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge.
357 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the region this evening with cold frontal passage. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of an incoming sfc cold front while the upper trough and its jet support cross the region. Subsidence and drier air will generally bring an end to the precipitation after fropa this evening, with only iso showers lingering as a result of the nearby proximity of the upper low cold core. Flash flooding remains a concern until convective thunderstorms move eastward, and the sfc cold front moves through.
High Pressure Part 2. As the title denotes, High pressure will dominate our weather pattern for the next several days. The difference tonight from last night, will be that the 500 mb ridge will build into the Upper Great Lakes, allowing the 850 mb temperatures to rise, and, in turn, the sfc temperatures a few degrees. So the lows are expected to in the mid to upper 50s tonight, instead of the lower to mid 50s, like last night.
Otherwise, Formation of Scattered convection is expected through the taf period as an upper level trough axis slowly works across the area. A general trend toward more afternoon coverage is expected east of I-65 given the expected location of the aforementioned trough axis.
204 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Relatively quiet conditions are occurring this afternoon in the wake of a 500 mb trough that brought active convection this time yesterday. There is still a weak surface boundary draped across the lower Ohio Valley into se Missouri. There is a 500 mb trough oriented from west to east across the Midwest, which will drop south toward the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. The dynamics associated with the upper trough may be enough for showers and isolated thunder during the late night and early morning hours, mainly west of the Mississippi River. The chance of showers and storms will increase a little on Sunday with diurnal heating as the upper trough approaches. Highs will be in the lower 80s in areas of persistent cloudcover.
In general, looks to be a warm and muggy week as upper level ridge across the western US expands east.
Otherwise, surface observations show temperatures across the area are in the low to mid 80s with winds decreasing into the overnight hours. As for temperatures, look for the afternoon hours to reach into the lower to mid 80s, accompanied by dew points in the 60s and possibly even lower 70s.
/Tonight through Saturday/ High pressure situated over the western Great Lakes will continue to settle slowly southwest over the next few days. This high is not the most clean system with a ribbon of moisture trapped beneath it with a fair amount of cumulus around most of the edges. Sunday will be similar to today with highs in the low 80s and with some cumulus development.
229 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Ridging continues to sit just to our north as moisture returns to the mid levels. Also with the ridge still to our north we will see the easterly flow for at least one more day which should keep the higher shower chances along the west coast this afternoon and evening.
1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Temperatures are on track for highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s by late afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
236 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the region this evening with cold frontal passage. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of an incoming sfc cold front while the upper trough and its jet support cross the region. Subsidence and drier air will generally bring an end to the precipitation after fropa by this evening, with only iso showers lingering as a result of the nearby proximity of the upper low cold core. The combination of residual moisture, placement of the upper trough, and diurnal heating may squeeze out an iso aftn shower Sunday.
However, the northward trajectory of high pressure will also advect low level moisture back into the region. The ridge of high pressure becomes elongated on Sunday, truncating the higher moisture content to the southwest. High temperatures will climb back above seasonal norms in response to the northward trajectory of the high. The meridional shaped ridge will make little progress at the beginning to the week. Storms will remain isolated and scattered in nature, favoring southern ranges, until the ridge is slightly suppress or nudges eastward. Cumulus fields have developed across the higher terrain as of 18Z and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will soon follow.
Ridging aloft will begin to ease up through Sunday night as a trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a high pressure near the southeastern states will maintain onshore flow into the region allowing for a gradual increase in moisture, with PWATs rising to around 1.
241 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure will move further offshore through Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Many of the high res mdls are showing a sct to bkn line of shra/tsra approaching and entering coastal plain this evening.
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will be the main weather influence for north and central GA this weekend. High pressure over the area has broken down for the time being. This deepening trough should help push a cold front into north GA late Sunday night. Max temperatures expected to be a bit cooler on Sunday due to increased clouds and rain.
Sunday we will no longer be under the suppressive influence of the departed inverted trough so we will have a moderately unstable airmass under a moist SE flow.
1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 First round of ridge-topping convection has slid south into central Nebraska early this morning, and focus for the next 24-36 hours will be on potential repeat as additional waves move over the dominant western CONUS ridge, then drop southeastward through the Dakotas and Nebraska. Questions remain regarding timing/track, though general eastward shift in the upper ridge axis will favor convection sliding across our western counties, most likely near or west of the James River Valley, later tonight into Sunday morning. Upper ridge remains in place across the Rockies/High Plains through much of the week ahead, pushing jet stream well north into southern Canada.
The 500mb ridge across the western United States will move little tonight through Sunday.
Given the high moisture content and slow storm motions, localized flooding will be possible with some small pockets of 2-3 inches showing up in 12z HREF and latest HRRR guidance. Highs will be similar to today, in the lower to middle 80s.
However, look for initiation along the high terrain between 11:30am to 1pm. High pressure will be situated in a favorable location near the Four Corners leading to widespread daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Steering flow changes mean less activity dropping south into the lower elevations later in the day. Activity will now favor initiation over the higher elevations and moving northwest and west each afternoon.
The clear skies are the result of being on the back side of the inverted trough and associated MCVs which is a region of subsidence. The expectation given the clearing skies is for convection to begin developing over the higher terrain south and east of Tucson early to mid afternoon then move to the northwest. Depending on the degree of subsidence remaining they may struggle once over the lower desert regions. Min RH values will be in the 27-37 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains. The Vamori Wash near Kom Vo was also experiencing near impactful levels to the bridge on highway 21. The ensemble means favor an active weather pattern this coming week as the upper high amplifies and becomes centered over the Four Corners on Sunday.
High pressure will become centered over Wisconsin on Sunday bringing light winds through Sunday. Mid level ridging over the northern plains will push into western Wisconsin aiding subsidence.
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 An upper level disturbance across srn ID and nern NV will move east and crest and amplifying upper level ridge across the cntl Rockies late this afternoon. The RAP and HRRR models suggest the focus will be across the Black Hills, Pine Ridge and the Cheyenne divide.
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure will build into the area this weekend. This high will persist for the early part of the week. Stratocumulus in the cooler airmass will decrease a bit later in the day. The frontal boundary looks to stall out along or just south of the Ohio River with weak high pressure building into the Great Lakes overnight. Mid level trof axis to drop south into the Ohio Valley Sunday. Expect highs generally in the lower 80s. The surface cold front will continue to slide further south into the lower Ohio Valley, having much less influence on the ILN CWA to start the work week.
204 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Temperatures will continue to increase this weekend as upper level high pressure builds into the area.
626 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure will move further offshore through Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Many of the high res mdls are showing a sct to bkn line of shra/tsra approaching and entering coastal plain this evening.
Another concern is the slow movement of these storms especially when the low level flow begins to increase in response to the pressure falls this evening and causes these storms to deviate more to the southeast. The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area during the next couple of days which will bring light winds and more capping to the region. As a result, the convection chances will become more isolated in nature along with warmer temperatures.
658 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Partly cloudy skies will prevail across central and southeast Illinois tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Highs will top out in the lower 80s.
Scattered showers supported by frontogenesis coincident with cold- frontal passage are moving sely through the ridges this evening.
924 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 (Issued 924 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021) Winds have become lighter and more variable this evening as high pressure moves into northern Wisconsin. High pressure will become centered over Wisconsin on Sunday bringing light winds through Sunday. Mid level ridging over the northern plains will push into western Wisconsin aiding subsidence.
/Issued 341 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will be the main weather influence for north and central GA this weekend. High pressure over the area has broken down for the time being. This deepening trough should help push a cold front into north GA late Sunday night. Max temperatures expected to be a bit cooler on Sunday due to increased clouds and rain.
Scattered showers supported by frontogenesis coincident with cold frontal passage are moving sely through the ridges this evening.
Ridging/capping should limit chances the further inland one gets. Upper ridging with dry air and the subsidence over our southwestern counties has shut down the showers and thunderstorms so far today and although a few will be possible they should be slow moving and very isolated. Rain chances start back up near sunrise over the coastal waters and then spread into the coastal counties but with the ridge so close by rain chances will remain low Sunday and probably just along and south of Wharton to Conroe to Livingston line. Upper flow becoming a little more north/northwesterly Sunday night as upper trough dips down through the Ohio Valley and the tail passes by to the northeast and the shear axis trails off into S Tx. Will be watching the cold front (weak) backdooring into OK/AR.
The area continues to be somewhat sandwiched between a broad upper ridge across the southwest CONUS and another along the southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough axis remains in place to the north extending into our region. As a result, the area remains in northwest flow aloft which will help weak disturbances move along the flow as the trough axis slowly shifts to the east. As we move into Sunday morning, the aforementioned trough axis will shift even farther to the east, however, the region will remain under the influence of the two ridges with unstable air in place.
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the region this evening with cold frontal passage. Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm supported by frontogenesis coincident with cold frontal passage are moving ely through the I80 corridor this evening.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 70 82 69 / 50 60 50 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 85 69 83 67 / 30 60 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 68 83 66 / 30 60 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 65 83 63 / 30 60 30 40 20.
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Relatively quiet conditions are occurring this afternoon in the wake of a 500 mb trough that brought active convection this time yesterday. There is still a weak surface boundary draped across the lower Ohio Valley into se Missouri. There is a 500 mb trough oriented from west to east across the Midwest, which will drop south toward the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. The dynamics associated with the upper trough may be enough for showers and isolated thunder during the late night and early morning hours, mainly west of the Mississippi River. The chance of showers and storms will increase a little on Sunday with diurnal heating as the upper trough approaches. Highs will be in the lower 80s in areas of persistent cloud cover.
Temperatures will continue to increase this weekend as upper level high pressure builds into the area.
This of course is a more favorable position for moisture advection on the upstream side of the high into the 4 Corners. As this transition occurs, a deeper plume of monsoonal moisture will become entrained underneath the ridge sitting overhead.
912 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Partly cloudy skies will prevail across central and southeast Illinois tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 60s. Have kept the patchy fog for mainly the southern half of our forecast area where surface dewpoints remain in the low 70s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Highs will top out in the lower 80s.
934 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure will move further offshore through Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest.
/issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ Skies are partly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front extends along the Ohio River through central Missouri and into southwest Kansas. Temperatures will be pretty typical for this time of year with lows mainly in the lower 70s. The cold front will be along the northern edge of the region by Sunday morning with little movement during the day. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Skies will become partly cloudy across the forecast area after midnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Weak boundary layer flow will allow the west coast sea breeze boundary to push inland with scattered thunderstorms developing mid/late afternoon with the highest pops over the interior.
1022 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level ridging extends westward across northern Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Short Term Update - Ridging will dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. A ridge across Florida will produce gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters through the overnight period.
909 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 9PM Update Cold front will slowly move into the area with showers and thunderstorms possible through the overnight. /issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ Skies are partly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front extends along the Ohio River through central Missouri and into southwest Kansas. Temperatures will be pretty typical for this time of year with lows mainly in the lower 70s. The cold front will be along the northern edge of the region by Sunday morning with little movement during the day. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 80s.