Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A blocking high pressure pattern will promote quiet weather conditions and near to above normal temperatures through the weekend. Northern and central Nevada will stay sandwiched in between an upper ridge to the northwest and a cutoff low to the southwest.
A little more active this morning as showers are streaming in across from the Straits of Florida, over the Lower Keys, and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and steadily marching towards the upper 80s. A large high pressure cell located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to influence our local weather pattern across the Florida Keys. Aloft we remain under the influence of a mid-level ridge that dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Rain and thunder chances will continue to be limited for today thanks to deep mean-layer ridging. From the synopsis, high pressure just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to slide east this afternoon and tonight, with breezes slackening and veering to the southeast across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
304 AM PDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Low pressure will remain offshore this week, and then move inland over the weekend.
A cold front approaches the area from the west early Thursday bringing the potential for some lower CIGs and VSBY restrictions in SHRA/TSRA all day on Thursday. On Thursday, rain showers become more numerous and widespread as a cold front associated with a deeper trough begins to dig south over the state. High temperatures range from low to mid 80s for most of the forecast area, with some isolated areas reaching the lower 90s. Behind the cold front, expect slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions.
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Additional rainfall is anticipated today as a cold front pushes across central Illinois.
(Rest of this afternoon and tonight) A cold front stretches from near KMLC to near KFSM this afternoon with the drier air lagging behind across northeast Oklahoma. Overnight lows are forecast to be below normal for this time of year as high pressure builds into the area as the aforementioned cold front departs the area. (Thursday through Wednesday) Fire weather will be top of mind on Thursday as a reinforcing cold front paves the way for more dry air to surge into the region.
1206 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure will drift slowly off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push through the region Thursday.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Convection is ongoing early this afternoon in the eastern half and a line moving into the northwest ahead of a cold front. Winds are the primary threat with any strong to severe storms that develop, but hail and even an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially later in the afternoon to early evening when low level wind shear is expected to increase with the approaching trough and cold front.
1143 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected most of the day as high pressure moves east. Warm, moist advection will prevail today as swly flow increases ahead of an approaching midwestern trough. As the cold front travels closer to the Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will be observed and periodic rainfall can be expected across the area through tonight into Thursday.
1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows a trough moving across the northern Plains pushing a cold front toward the area. At the surface, 2 AM West Texas Mesonet and Oklahoma Mesonet observations show the cold front positioned from Nara Visa, NM to Sanford, TX to Wolf Creek Park, TX to Slapout, OK. With the upper trough being well to our north, the speed of the cold front, and how dry the atmosphere is, precipitation chances are near zero. Today will be slightly cooler than we have seen in previous days, with highs mainly in the low-70s on the Caprock and nearing 80F off the Caprock.
Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures should fall in the lower and middle 30s for most lower elevation locations as radiational cooling becomes more efficient tonight.
(This evening through Thursday) A cold front, which was near a Sterling City, to Ballinger, to Cross Plains line as of 2 PM, was moving south through the area. Temperatures were also cooler behind the front, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, while south of the front, mid 80s to lower 90s were common. Lows will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight behind the front in most areas, dropping into the mid to upper 50s as opposed to the mid/upper 60s which were fairly common north of the I-10 corridor. Tomorrow's highs will also be generally cooler, mainly south of Interstate 20, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of I-20, to the upper 80s along the I-10 corridor.
1036 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Additional rainfall is anticipated today as a cold front pushes across central Illinois.
Weak high pressure will remain across the region through the end of the week, maintaining dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Weak high pressure will remain in place across the region over the next few days, maintaining mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. A few clouds over the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will develop this afternoon as some lingering moisture remains in place, but any that do form should dissipate after sunset. An area of low pressure lingering off the southern California coast will also result in a few isolated showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across the far western Mojave Desert and Morongo Basin.
Convection to exit the area to the east across the Mississippi River overnight with high pressure rebuilding in its wake. Northerly winds will increase to around 10 mph on Thursday with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. Otherwise, clear skies and much cooler temperatures expected on Thursday night with overnight low temperatures forecast to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
This was to be expected with mean layered ridging in place across the region. As the aforementioned upper level low continues eastward it will shove the mean layer ridge, currently over top of the Florida Keys, eastward as well. Nonetheless, enhanced moisture and lift from the approaching upper level trough will maintain high PoPs into Thursday.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper trough will be to the east of the forecast area today. High pressure moves in tonight diminishing the winds. 850 mb winds will be around 30 knots on Thursday which will result in another breezy day with NW winds with the highest winds in the east.
At 500mb a trough will be moving into the area overnight, with waves moving east through this pattern. As the upper trough approaches, it will enhance surface based instability leading to the potential for a round of strong storms that could last through the evening.
352 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Rain chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front arrives from the west, moving offshore Thursday night. PoPs through the day Thursday are tricky as forcing wanes ahead of an approaching sfc cold front, but the sfc to 700 mb moisture remains fairly high so advertising a 20-30% chance of rain through the day. A cold front will push off the coast on Thursday night, with a slight chance of a shower possible Thursday evening.
248 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A cold front is moving across central Illinois late this afternoon and evening.
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A strong upper level trough and frontal boundary will push across the central US today bringing cooler temperatures and some strong winds to the area. As the trough digs south and the pressure gradient tightens, strong surface winds will develop. In addition to the trough. This trough also will bring some cooler temperatures to the region for today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will depend greatly on the frontal passage, with highs across the north (in the mid to upper 50s) being nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the highs across areas south of I-80 (low to mid 70s). Winds increase once again on Thursday as the upper trough remains situated over the central US.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Weak cold front is currently traversing the Stockton Plateau, but slowing in progression as daytime mixing causes a push back against the front. Lows tomorrow morning will be cooler with upper 40s poking into northern Lea and the Marfa Plateau with 50s elsewhere. Partly to mostly sunny skies areawide as we sit on the southwest edge high pressure.
1254 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today and tonight) A deep upper trough moving out of Canada and into the northern Plains and upper Midwest will send a cold front south into our area today. Further to the north and west, temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. Skies will remain mostly clear and lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
A strong upper ridge will maintain the dry conditions today, along with light winds and above-normal temperatures.
419 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A cold front will move through tonight and an upper level disturbance will move through on Thursday.
139 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected most of the day as high pressure moves east. Warm, moist advection will prevail today as swly flow increases ahead of an approaching midwestern trough. As the cold front travels closer to the Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will be observed and periodic rainfall can be expected across the area through tonight into Thursday.
The pattern will feature a Rex block setup with a high over low western CONUS block and a large low pressure system spinning over the Great Lakes/Ontario region.
1113 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 The H500 hand analysis map this morning is showing a Rex block along the Pacific Coast transitioning to a deep trough over central NOAM and another ridge along the east coast. Dry Northwest flow is in place behind the trough over the Northern and Central Rockies and this will not change throughout the short term. The strong radiational cooling could bring some localized near freezing temperatures to the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys tonight. Winds over the high country should settle down just a bit with the core of stronger winds aloft shifting East with the trough expanding over much of the eastern CONUS by late tomorrow.
Near average temperatures are forecast for today and will cool another couple of degrees tomorrow behind another weak cold frontal passage overnight tonight. Synoptically, a upper level trough continues to dig across the central and eastern CONUS today. The axis of higher winds on the western edge of the trough will remain north and east of the forecast area today and tomorrow. This trough will usher in another weak cold front this evening into the overnight hours. Similar to the front from this morning, only marginally cooler air is expected with this weak front.
1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Summary: A long wave trough slowly moving through the region bringing a mix of precipitation types for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
Unfortunately, this system is not the kind of cold front to bring much heat relief, as temperatures through the end of the week creep upwards underneath dry skies.
1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Current sfc analysis depicts a cold front draped over the central US from MN to KS. WV analysis showers the upper level trough axis over central SD. The secondary cold front moves through the region today with 3-4 mb/3hr pressure rises behind the front.
High pressure will continue through the period. Look for freezing temperatures in the upper Snake plain and Arco Desert tomorrow morning. Also, look for temperatures just above freezing in the lower Snake plain and Eastern Magic valley tomorrow morning.
439 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Showers return for tonight and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. As the cold front moves closer to the Upper Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will support more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight and early Thursday.
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Issued 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Our early evening hours will be much quieter than our morning hours today with a brief period of clear skies before a second cold front moves through during the late afternoon in the west to late evening in the east. Depending upon how low the freezing level gets, I wouldn't be surprised if a few folks see some graupel showers. Tomorrow night will then be chilly with lows dropping to just below freezing.
Synopsis: A longwave trough, currently centered over Ontario, shifts southeastward towards the Great Lakes tonight and into tomorrow. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow, low RH values near 15 to 20 percent will be prevalent.
Daytime highs today will top out around average, but with the high humidity it will make for a warm and muggy day across west central and southwest Florida. By early Thursday, an upper low moves north of the Great Lakes with deep troughing extending south through the eastern half of the U. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected ahead of and in the vicinity of the cold front late Wednesday and all day on Thursday.
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Showers return for tonight and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. As the cold front moves closer to the Upper Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will support more widespread showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms later tonight and early Thursday.
Over the next two days the low will retrograde (move west) a bit allowing the weak ridging over the area to amplify a bit which will result in afternoon temperatures climbing several degrees.
951 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A cold front will move through tonight and an upper level disturbance will move through on Thursday.
716 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A cold front, which was near a Sterling City, to Ballinger, to Cross Plains line as of 2 PM, was moving south through the area. Temperatures were also cooler behind the front, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, while south of the front, mid 80s to lower 90s were common. Lows will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight behind the front in most areas, dropping into the mid to upper 50s as opposed to the mid/upper 60s which were fairly common north of the I-10 corridor. Tomorrow's highs will also be generally cooler, mainly south of Interstate 20, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of I-20, to the upper 80s along the I-10 corridor.
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Rest of this afternoon and tonight) A cold front stretches from near KMLC to near KFSM this afternoon with the drier air lagging behind across northeast Oklahoma. Overnight lows are forecast to be below normal for this time of year as high pressure builds into the area and the aforementioned cold front departs the area. (Thursday through Wednesday) Fire weather will be top of mind on Thursday as a reinforcing cold front paves the way for more dry air to surge into the region.
742 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Convection is ongoing early this afternoon in the eastern half and a line moving into the northwest ahead of a cold front. Winds are the primary threat with any strong to severe storms that develop, but hail and even an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially later in the afternoon to early evening when low level wind shear is expected to increase with the approaching trough and cold front.
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Aviation -- Precipitation chances much of the next 7 days -- The upper pattern is the process of becoming very fall like this evening as an upper trough drives in from the northwest. The next 7 days will either feature an upper trough, an upper low or northwest flow over the Great Lakes.
746 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Rain chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front arrives from the west, moving offshore Thursday night. PoPs through the day Thursday are tricky as forcing wanes ahead of an approaching sfc cold front, but the sfc to 700 mb moisture remains fairly high so advertising a 20-30% chance of rain through the day. A cold front will push off the coast on Thursday night, with a slight chance of a shower possible Thursday evening.
With a cooler and slightly more stable environment, these storms for the most part were weaker than the earlier ones. This activity was being pushed to the SE by an approaching cold front, which extended from southern Indiana to eastern Arkansas should move across this region in the late night.
Inland regions remain clear and warmer, but a slight cooldown is underway.
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Issued 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022) A final line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the area early this evening, along the secondary cold front. Boxell (Issued 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Our early evening hours will be much quieter than our morning hours today with a brief period of clear skies before a second cold front moves through during the late afternoon in the west to late evening in the east. Depending upon how low the freezing level gets, I wouldn't be surprised if a few folks see some graupel showers. Tomorrow night will then be chilly with lows dropping to just below freezing.
811 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A cold front will move through tonight and an upper level disturbance will move through on Thursday.
929 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Issued 929 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022) Showers are ending across the area for now, as colder air builds into the area behind a secondary cold front. Boxell (Issued 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Our early evening hours will be much quieter than our morning hours today with a brief period of clear skies before a second cold front moves through during the late afternoon in the west to late evening in the east. Depending upon how low the freezing level gets, I wouldn't be surprised if a few folks see some graupel showers. Tomorrow night will then be chilly with lows dropping to just below freezing.
However, this activity will greatly increase in coverage tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front dropping into Southeast tomorrow afternoon. Daytime highs today will top out around average, but with the high humidity it will make for a warm and muggy day across west central and southwest Florida. By early Thursday, an upper low moves north of the Great Lakes with deep troughing extending south through the eastern half of the U. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected ahead of and in the vicinity of the cold front late Wednesday and all day on Thursday.
GOES-16 night-time microphysics reveals a shield of clouds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the mid to upper level clouds have begun to fan out over the lower Keys, thus creating partly cloudy skies. A high surface pressure over southern Florida and the Keys will slowly abate to the northeast ahead of an approaching cold front currently over the central United States, which will swing eastward and sink into Florida. High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will slide east tonight, resulting in breezes slackening and veering to the southeast across the coastal waters.
High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight tonight, bringing mainly clear and calm conditions to the area. Overnight lows across the plains and some of the valleys will dip to the low to mid 30s, so some frost is possible overnight tonight. Ludwig 545 PM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (13/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure nudges in from the NW. Expect mainly clear skies and light winds with this high pressure system in place. Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures should fall in the lower and middle 30s for most lower elevation locations as radiational cooling becomes more efficient tonight.
852 PM PDT Wed Oct 12 2022 An upper low off the SoCal coast is expected to move inland across northern Baja California this weekend.
1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A cold front, which was near a Sterling City, to Ballinger, to Cross Plains line as of 2 PM, was moving south through the area. Temperatures were also cooler behind the front, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, while south of the front, mid 80s to lower 90s were common. Lows will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight behind the front in most areas, dropping into the mid to upper 50s as opposed to the mid/upper 60s which were fairly common north of the I-10 corridor. Tomorrow's highs will also be generally cooler, mainly south of Interstate 20, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of I-20, to the upper 80s along the I-10 corridor.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the remainder of the week and through the weekend delivering dry and mild conditions and mostly light winds.
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Deep upper trough extends from western Ontario into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a closed low is still situated off of the Southern CA coast. At the surface, a secondary cold front extends from southern IL to the Ozark region and finally into northern OK. Looking for cooler temps today compared to Wed in addition to some stronger northwest winds which should be in the 25-30 mph range with higher gusts. Highs today will be close to seasonal normals as they top out in the low 70s. For Sat, we are still expecting a warm front to lift north across the Southern Plains and should stretch across central OK by the afternoon hours.
109 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Showers return for tonight and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. As the cold front moves closer to the Upper Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will support more widespread showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms later tonight and early Thursday.
1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (06Z TAFS) Low clouds are beginning to develop and spread across the region ahead of an incoming cold front, with ceilings ranging from LIFR to low-end MVFR.
310 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Showers will taper off later today as a cold front exits the region.
1116 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Showers return for tonight and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. As the cold front moves closer to the Upper Ohio Valley, more widespread forcing for ascent will support more widespread showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms later tonight and early Thursday.
DISCUSSIONâ¦ Little change in the ongoing period of mild fall weather as the current blocking pattern influencing the west coast deflects storm systems northward into Alaska/western Canada. The area of low pressure off the southern CA coast will lift northeast into the Four-Corners region this weekend. This will allow the area of high pressure and upper ridging that identified the northern periphery of the REX block to shift more east into the Pacific Northwest. But, little variation will be noticed from the current state of mostly clear skies, unseasonably warm conditions, and lighter winds as high pressure continues its dominance through the upcoming weekend. Daytime highs will continue to run 5-10 degrees above average across our region, with lower valley temperatures reaching into the high 70s to low 80s.
The main concern today will be wind as we continue to have a large height and pressure gradient between an upper level low over Ontario and a strong high off of the Pacific Northwest Coast.
High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight tonight, bringing mainly clear and calm conditions to the area. Overnight lows across the plains and some of the valleys will dip to the low to mid 30s, so some frost is possible overnight tonight. Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures should fall in the lower and middle 30s for most lower elevation locations as radiational cooling becomes more efficient tonight.