Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low off the Washington coast will slide southward through the Oregon coastal waters tonight. Showers rotating around the low will remain over southern portions of Western Washington this evening. Another upper level low will drop into the coastal waters from the north and northeast later this weekend.
Regional satellite imagery showed quite a bit of low topped convection developing in response to a large upper level trough across western Colorado and eastern Utah. This quick break wont bring much change in airmass compared to Thursday, with temperatures in the low 50s to upper 40s for the valleys and the 30s for the mountains.
343 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a stationary front from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains. Dew points in the 30s and higher ran from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Plains on south. If this occurs, a rain/sleet mix would be possible on the leading edge of the precipitation before changing over to all rain as latent heat release warms the lower atmosphere.
A high pressure ridge will remain over the area. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower/mid 70s along the coast and mid-upper 70s inland.
Mid/upper moisture associated with the exiting trough axis to the north continues to support a few patchy cirrus across portions of extreme NE TN and SW VA, all amidst some llv cu and gusty swly flow. The previous wind advisory along the high terrain remains intact, and will prevail through 8PM.
316 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Main concern in the period is the low pressure system currently developing across eastern Colorado, which will eject eastward tonight through tomorrow and quickly become stacked. Between now and then, high pressure will continue to keep conditions quiet, with just high clouds moving through this afternoon through tonight.
High pressure continues to drift east from the Upper Midwest/Central Canada, which will steadily erode the lingering shallow moisture and bring an end to the lake-effect snow showers across central/eastern UP this afternoon. Have held onto the current forecast lows of single digits below zero across the west and some areas of the higher terrain across central UP. Further east, it apppears clouds will linger and thus help to hold temps up in the single digits above zero to perhaps the lower teens. High pressure will be positioned overhead Fri, allowing a very light pressure gradient to produce light to calm winds from the west/northwest.
540 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure.
340 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Winter storm moving through the area through Friday night will bring a variety of weather to the area, including rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain, sleet and snow.
The higher passes like Lame Deer Divide on 212 and the Hysham Hills on I-94 will likely see very poor travel conditions on Friday. Additionally, GFS/NAM and HREF members continue to support freezing rain potential impacting the area including and east of a line from Forsyth to Ashland this evening and into the overnight.
223 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front exits tonight. High pressure Friday.
417 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A challenging forecast, with temperatures very close or just below freezing making precipitation type difficult to forecast. Most models agree that temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of north central Nebraska late tonight, and then hover in the 30 to 32 degree range most of the day Friday. So with the temperatures expected to be just below freezing, icing will likely occur.
302 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Thanks to the large and complex low pressure system now spreading from the Oregon coast through the inter-mountain west and the northern high plains, a return to winter weather conditions can be expected at least through the next few days.
316 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper level trough tracking across the Great Basin at this time. Snow showers will continue to increase over the mountains this afternoon as the upper level trough nears the state. If the low intensifies and slows even more. As far as the High Wind Watch goes for the foothills, will cancel it. After Friday's weather system moves off to the central plains, an upper ridge will build over the state with drier and warmer weather.
An upper level trough will track east through the Central Plains Friday. A cold front associated with this trough will reach down to the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Lows tonight will be much warmer than the previous two nights with readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Issued by National Weather Service QUAD CITIES IA IL 401 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Tonight: High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Valley will bring clear skies and rather light winds to the ARX cwa.
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure will drift across the southeastern U.
310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A trough of low pressure will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday.
Surface trof will exit eastern sections early this evening, followed by Pacific cold front, with dry southwest and west winds remaining up overnight. Secondary closed low expected to develop over eastern Colorado tonight, and to then move across northern Kansas during the day on Friday. A Wind Advisory may be needed in northeast sections on Friday, in areas closer to the low.
253 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure settles in across N cntl Fl providing clear skies and light winds to much of the area. A warm up commences Friday as the upper flow becomes near zonal with the low level ridge to the south.
320 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A ridge of high pressure will extend further south through the Northland into Friday. Mostly clear skies will persist under the influence by this high pressure system. Tonight will be colder with lows from the low single digits above zero to 10 above. Friday will continue to be under mostly clear skies and it will be a bit warmer with highs from the mid thirties to lower forties.
/ISSUED 957 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/ A transition day in the sense that these recently pristine clear and cooler days are behind us. Very low chances for a few under- the-cap showers across the western and southwestern CWA/Matagorda Bay area latter today or where the higher precipitable waters will reside. Temperatures will steadily climb into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon under a good dose of warm air advection.
130 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front crosses today. High pressure Friday.
Initial troughs support slowing down onset timing given shallow dry fetch in NAM BUFKIT soundings which will eliminate any potential for pre-event drizzle.
115 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A strong area of low pressure over the Northeast U.
312 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front exits tonight. High pressure Friday.
308 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure will remain centered to our south, crossing Florida today before moving off the Florida coast tonight.
339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Southerly wind did increase today as high pressure moved to eastern gulf and low pressure increasing over central high plains. A nwd movg warm front late tonight will bring increasing showers and a few tstms into the area, mainly north LA, early in the day Friday. As this low topped warm air advection showers dissipate and sunshine comes out, a potential for rapid tstm initiation comes into play, but only for a narrow time window, if at all.
Cloud cover will increase and cigs will lower ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will bring showers close to the Tennessee River by 18z tomorrow.
Clockwise flow around the high has veered winds northeasterly this afternoon across South Florida. Maximum temperatures, similar to yesterday, have struggled to reach the low to mid 70s. Thus, minimum temperatures, although still below average, will be around 5 degrees warmer than last nights.
Water vapor imagery depicted a large upper level trough centered off the coast of Oregon. With the upper low almost stationary and flow over Montana shifting to the northwest, the focus for synoptic forcing was focused to the west of our border. A rain-snow mix may be possible in the west where temperatures rise above freezing in the afternoon hours. East-southeast flow keeps temperatures mild on Friday with highs in the low to upper 30s.
1107 AM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A slow moving area of low pressure will bring widely scattered rain and mountain snow showers to the region through the weekend.
The thermal ridge won't be as strong as yesterday, so expect temperatures a few degrees cooler, but will still yield apparent temperatures in the 90-95 degree range across eastern and south central MN, as western WI as well.
Increasingly drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights. An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in control of the weather through midweek.
137 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast of SE New England. High pressure has centered over the Northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.
252 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Water vapor imagery shows deep upper trof across the western CONUS with southwest flow across the Rockies into the northern plains.
A weak pressure pattern will continue for the weekend due to Maria east of the Bahamas, and high pressure to the north. Cyclonic flow aloft with light easterly flow in the low levels, and ample moisture would suggest at least a high chance of showers.
Freezing or near-freezing temperatures have settled into the Arco Desert and Snake Plain, so current Freeze Warning looks good. Areas of Freezing Fog have developed and have been most impactful in the Teton Valley where near Zero visibilities have been reported at times.
Upper trof over the region will shift slightly eastward over the next few days. Light showers moving out of south central Montana will lift across the western zones this morning before the focus shifts toward the North Dakota border as upper trof axis moves across the divide. Beginning Sunday night, the slow-moving, main low pressure trough axis will finally be moving through eastern Montana, which will push the chances for any remaining organized rain showers further east, in that SW flow aloft, which will have been impacting our SE zones for a few days.
353 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The main change this period is to shift the highest precipitation amounts slightly westward again, and limit it to generally less than 2.
301 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Above normal temperatures continue today, although thicker diurnal cu and more efficient mixing of boundary layer moisture may keep heat indices in the lower to mid 90s (versus near triple digits of the past few days).
344 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A strong upper trough centered over NV and ID are expected to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to the area this weekend as it slowly moves east.
442 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The cold front has continued to push farther south than expected. A cold front stretches from just south of North Platte to just north of Norfolk. This evening and overnight, the best chances for thunderstorms will remain across the High Plains of Nebraska where the best 850mb convergence is located.
405 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A cold front beneath a strong jet stream will pass through the area today and tonight. Behind the front much cooler air will move in Sunday. Dry air will filter in south of Interstate 70, however one more day of unsettled weather is expected to the north before the low exits the Rockies. Sunday will feature the coolest weather during the forecast period as the upper low and trough axis pass over.
508 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 High pressure remains in place over the region today and tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and stall.
Upper low across SW GA will slowly move westward with this area plus the eastern FL panhandle in a favored area for convection this afternoon including TLH and VLD. Upper low, currently positioned across southern GA, will drift slowly westward today. Decent instability, along with cooler mid level temperatures and steep low/mid level lapse rates will favor some strong wind gusts underneath stronger convection.
453 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 (Today and Tonight) A highly amplified upper level pattern will continue across the CONUS the next 24 hours, with a deep upper level trough across the western states and an upper ridge situated over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler today, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Permain Basin tonight, in advance of the upper trough. (Sunday) An upper level trough to our west will send a few disturbances northeast and combine with a low level southeast flow to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far western part of the area.
Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place this afternoon, characterized by an elongated upper ridge over the area with deep troughing over the western half of the nation. Western trough forecast to deepen through the period with a weak upper low approaching the forecast area from southeast on Sunday. Moisture will increase slightly and with upper low in the vicinity, a slight chance of diurnally driven convection is in the forecast for Sunday. With increased cloud cover and chances of precipitation in the forecast on Sunday, temperatures will be slightly cooler but only by a degree or two.
340 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 An upper trough continues over the se cwa and drifts into the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day as more or a weak upper low. For Sunday, the upper low drifts w along the gulf coast states with Hurricane Maria moving n over the western Atlantic. Medium range models continue to keep the region under a large, but not particularly strong, upper-level ridge through all but the tail-end of the period.
548 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Above normal temperatures continue today, although thicker diurnal cu and more efficient mixing of boundary layer moisture may keep heat indices in the lower to mid 90s (versus near triple digits of the past few days).
237 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A low pressure trough over the West will keep it comfortably cool again today. This will set the stage for sunny, warmer days, and clear, cool nights through the end of the month.
315 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 large upper low will continue to settle over the Great Basin today and central Rockies on Sunday, with downstream upper ridging over the Ohio Valley and eastern states. Gusty southerly winds and above normal temperatures will persist today into Sunday across our forecast area, to the south of a slow-moving cold front in Nebraska, and east of a lee trough/dryline near the Colorado/Kansas border. Widespread showers/thunderstorms will focus along the front and lee trough, to the west and north of the forecast area through Sunday morning.
658 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 High pressure remains in place over the region today and tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and stall.
316 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Overnight GOES-R water vapor loop showed a closed upper low over north-central NV within a deep amplitude trough occupying the Intermountain West. A surface cold front extended from northeast through southwest NE, central CO to a low near the UT/CO border.
Upper low, currently positioned across southern GA, will drift slowly westward today. Decent instability, along with cooler mid level temperatures and steep low/mid level lapse rates will favor some strong wind gusts underneath stronger convection.
1120 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The latest satellite images had a large upper low spinning over the western CONUS with deep southwest flow over the CWA. A surface cold front had pushed completely through the CWA with gusty northwest winds and cooler air in its wake.
The central Rockies are positioned on the eastern fringes of a deep trough centered over the northern Great Basin. A few weak thunderstorms will continue through early evening along with numerous quick-moving showers, before precipitation transitions to scattered showers overnight in the higher terrain as instability wanes. Aloft, the western trough will cut off with an upper-level low remaining nearly stationary in central Utah. Dry air will filter in south of Interstate 70, however one more day of unsettled weather is expected to the north before the low exits the Rockies. Sunday will feature the coolest weather during the forecast period as the upper low and trough axis pass over.
Upper level analysis has deep long wave trough over the western U. and an elongated ridge through the plains into the Midwest.
Areas of freezing fog this morning. Dry on Sunday across the region with temperatures trending warmer. Areas of freezing fog across much of northern and central NV this morning as northerly flow and diminishing clouds help temperatures fall toward dewpoints. Trough axis over NV early this morning drifting slowly east. Cold northerly flow will keep temperatures well below normal this afternoon, with some instability over east-central NV at the base of the exiting trough axis. CWA will be under the back side of the deep trough tonight with cold and dry air leading to more fog and cold conditions early Sunday.
The upper level trough is centered from western Montana to northern Nevada. This is placing the forecast area on the backside of the trough under a cool northerly flow. Saturday the upper level trough ever so slowly will continue moving east as an upper level ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest from the west. An upper trough over the eastern portion of the region will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies at 5k-12k feet AGL over the area through morning then begin clearing.
The low clouds will gradually lift and should return to VFR around 18Z or so.
338 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Unseasonable warm weather will continue through the weekend as the region remains between the blocked high to the east and a digging trough to the west. High temperatures though will trend a few degrees cooler today as heights marginally fall and then again tomorrow as a weak wave induces clouds and perhaps a few spotty showers. though there are some questions whether the models are accurately advecting the western trough eastward too quickly given the weak Rex block over the east and meridional flow to the west.
112 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and mainly clear skies through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther off the east coast. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 80s.
Warm and humid conditions will continue as our summer-like pattern will remain in place with highs expected once again in the lower 90s. Perhaps a slightly better coverage of afternoon showers and storms will occur today as an upper level low will begin to slide west across our region just south of the upper ridge that remains mostly entrenched over the ArkLaMiss. /28/ An amplified synoptic scale pattern will persist across the CONUS at the start of the period with a digging longwave trough over the western half of the country and ridging across the Midwest and Great Lakes.
High pressure at the surface centered over Ohio extending southwestward into Texas. Aloft, ridging extends from Lake Michigan into Texas.
302 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Seeing a bit of cirrus making its way northeast into eastern Kansas from earlier convection associated with the western CONUS longwave trough, and with south-southwest to south-southeast winds persisting in the lower levels, temps remain warm again early this morning. South winds continue to bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass into the area but temps still reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with apparent temps a few degrees higher.
332 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The area remains in a very summer like pattern, pinched between a large trough out over the far western CONUS, and ridging just east of the Mississippi river valley, with then troughing within which are embedded hurricane Maria and the remnants of hurricane Jose. This wave is in the plume of best moisture and is in the low level jet, but there is less support at the mid and upper levels for stronger convection.
A cold front stretches from just south of North Platte to just north of Norfolk. This evening and overnight, the best chances for thunderstorms will remain across the High Plains of Nebraska where the best 850mb convergence is located.
Upper level trough will work eastward through Sunday bringing drier conditions and a slow warming trend. Otherwise the region will be dry with high temperatures 3 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday (though still well below normal). Mostly clear skies will allow for another cold night with near freezing temperatures possible in the Western Magic Valley and parts of the Upper Treasure Valley east of Boise by Sunday morning.
Do not really expect the cold front to advance into our area until Sunday and thus the better rain chances will continue to be confined to our far northwestern zones with little change from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The cold front should start to make that push further east and more into our western forecast area by afternoon and evening. Most of the rain will come along and behind the cold front.
Will keep the northern half of the valley dry for now, as the storm threat tapers off farther north where the lower levels are drier. Valley fog and lake fog are a little slower to get going this morning--temps are generally 1-2 degrees warmer, thereby taking longer to cool down and saturate.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The 500 mb ridging currently over the central and northeastern U. will be eroded by a deep closed moving in from the western states and a weaker closed low drifting west over the southeastern states. AS the 500 mb ridging gradually breaks over the RGV.
This is mainly being driven by the cooler air over the warmer lake water.
405 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 High temperature records will be in jeopardy once again today, especially in the Flint to Tri Cities region as interior sections of lower Michigan remain capable of highs in the lower to mid 90s. The slightly cooler locations near the shorelines will also make another run at 90, especially metro Detroit with a little less influence from Lake Erie. This will be due to the core of the upper level ridge sliding eastward along the Atlantic coast as the long wave pattern begins some adjustment from strong amplification over the last few days.
Weak high pressure remains over the Eastern U. Temperatures will run near climatology through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the low 70s.
318 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A large upper low will continue to settle over the Great Basin today and central Rockies on Sunday, with downstream upper ridging over the Ohio Valley and eastern states. Gusty southerly winds and above normal temperatures will persist today into Sunday across our forecast area, to the south of a slow-moving cold front in Nebraska, and east of a lee trough/dryline near the Colorado/Kansas border. Widespread showers/thunderstorms will focus along the front and lee trough, mainly to the west and north of the forecast area through Sunday morning.
The high pressure weather pattern remains locked in. 925mb temps have cooled ever so slightly, so although temps may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, it will still be hot.