Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
317 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a trough of low pressure off the coast of New England. A broad ridge of high pressure extended from the Ozarks, north into western Ontario. West of this ridge, a broad area of low pressure extended from Alberta into southwestern British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended south along the Pacific coast, to northern California. Highs will reach into the 90s with the warmest temperatures in the west and far southwest where dew points will be in the lower 60s.
The New England cutoff low is now over the open Atlantic while an upper low that was over Alberta yesterday will lift north and east today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 90s for most of the area with the lakeshores a bit "cooler" in the 80s.
145 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will remain to the northwest of the area through Friday. A very weak cold front will approach the area on Friday night.
411 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will cover the region today, with warm and muggy conditions and temperatures just above normal.
142 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. Combined with variable mid-level cloudiness, overnight lows will remain warm, generally in the low- mid 60s and locally in the upper 60s in the Champlain Valley. We'll see another opportunity for scattered afternoon convection across central/southern VT tomorrow as weak vorticity moves through the base of the trough aloft and modest instability develops (~800- 1000 J/kg).
1234 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A high amplitude upper-level ridge in place across the region will remain in place through the short term. High pressure at the surface and stagnant flow will result in warm temperatures and light winds.
356 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through today.
406 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The main forecast concern in the short term revolves around heat impacts under an upper ridge.
With a persistent trough west of the area, flow aloft will be out of the southwest.
For today, expect more of the same, with daytime highs climbing into the 80s and 90s with the warmer temps expected away from the lakeshores. Mixing to near 800 mb through 850 mb temps of 18C to 20C will support another day with inland highs in in the lower 90s.
526 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A large ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will keep warm and dry weather going across the region, through the holiday weekend. At the surface, 1018 mb high pressure was centered over northern WI. The upper ridge will keep its grip on the Midwest this weekend.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest while a frontal boundary ran from southeast Colorado into the Tennessee Valley. Through sunrise the slowly filling upper low across the area will continue to create isolated showers south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line.
Models indicating a trough extending from the Pacific NW into western Canada along with a downstream ridge situated over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will prevail. Otherwise broad upper level high pressure will ne on control over most of the CONUS.
High pressure continues to sit over the Great Lakes Region and Northern Plains into the weekend. With the prevailing high pressure, quiet and calm weather is expected for Independence Day.
505 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Current surface map places trof across far eastern Montana through eastern Wyoming.
Expect highs in the lower 90s to prevail the next few days. Elsewhere, little change needed to the going forecast, with mostly sunny conditions and highs getting into the lower 90s in many areas. At the surface, 1018 mb high pressure was centered over northern WI. The upper ridge will keep its grip on the Midwest this weekend.
The upper level high pressure system over the region this morning is expected to move westward during the period, while an upper trough enters the western Gulf of Mexico (deterministic GFS/NAM/ECMWF), consistent with subsidence over the CWA/MSA.
245 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure building over the Southwest will bring seasonal July temperatures over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The best instability is forecast over north and west portions of the forecast area and this is where the highest pops will be, but not by a lot. BDL A return to a more active pattern is on tap for the fcst period as ample Gulf moisture advects into the region from a broad upper low progged to track slowly NEWD across the southeast CONUS.
Aloft, troughing exists off of the northeast/mid Atlc coast with trough axis extending through the southeast U. coastal waters, across north FL to another weak area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf. Weak surface ridging remains shunted south/east of ECFL. The stationary front will move little, though weak low pressure off of the Carolina coast will move along it and further into the western Atlc. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ Upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the southwest CONUS and push the Polar Jet farther north along the West Coast today and tomorrow. High temperatures for today and Saturday will moderate closer to seasonally normal values in the low to mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s across the Rolling Plains. As the ridging patterns shifts west slightly tomorrow, a weak cold front will approach late tonight and stall in the northern South and Rolling Plains. The upper level ridge axis swings west tomorrow, resulting in a little drier airmass which will lift temperatures slightly from todays highs. An upper-level trough that is over the NW CONUS will lift into western Canada on Saturday. This will cause the ridge to reposition more squarely over the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures will continue to rise under the influence of the ridge with triple digits expected across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday.
A broad upper level trough is over the region with an upper low centered over far northwest Washington into British Columbia.
/EC/ Today through tonight: Cylonic flow on the east side of the subtropical ridge continues to support an active weather pattern over the ArkLaMiss region.
With an upper ridge firmly in place, over the region, dry conditions and hot temperatures will continue. According to climate data, afternoon highs, for early July, usually average around the lower to mid 90s.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
At the sfc, a weak lee trough will be in place, along the front range, with southeast low level flow across the plains. Overall, sct convection will develop over the higher terrain by early aftn, with outflow boundaries spreading across the I-25 Corridor, by mid aftn. As for highs this aftn, will keep readings mainly in the lower to mid 90s over nern CO. For tonight, expect most tstm activity will end in the early evening hours, across the plains, with little additional activity expected over the higher terrain. The upper ridge axis will remain over the state as the center of the upper high retrogrades west from the southern NM/AZ border on Saturday.
In the upper levels, a persistent southwest flow pattern continues with a broad trough over British Columbia and Alberta and a ridge axis stretching from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. Likely the best chance for thunderstorms will come when orographically forced convection off the higher terrain of MT/WY will move into our west later this evening.
Otherwise, other than the outside chance of lingering morning convection, think the remainder of the day will be dry with subsidence as an upper level ridge dominates across the region. The upper level ridge will continue to dominate on Saturday, and expecting much of the day to be dry with temperatures back into the upper 80s/lower 90s - with the heat index climbing to near 100 west of Interstate 29.
Longwave pattern will continue to support ridging centered to the west, with disturbances moving over the periphery of the ridge and into Arkansas from the north/northeast. At the same time, troughing over the southeast conus will dig westward along the Gulf Coast. While afternoon heat index values will be unpleasant (though typical for July), my current thinking is that cloud cover should keep values a little cooler (if thats the proper terminology) today and Saturday.
Broad upper troughing extending southward from SWRN BC and across PAC NW and off the North Coast. Upper troughing will serve to deepen the stratus layer tomorrow, as well as bring chances for light drizzle. Critically low RH values are forecast to occur this weekend over interior portions of NWRN CA, with poor recoveries expected within the thermal belt located across mid to upper mountain and ridge slopes. In addition, model guidance shows winds becoming gusty out of the west-northwest during the afternoon hours, with gusty winds persisting at ridgetop level through late night.
Generally, ridging aloft and weak low/mid level flow will dominate our pattern today.
738 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Weak high pressure builds in from the north Friday and Saturday with lower chances of rainfall. Frontal boundary is now well south of the Carolinas as the upper level ridge strengthens heading into this weekend. As a result, dry conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s inland; upper 80s near the coast. As ridge builds into Saturday, afternoon highs can expect an uptick into the upper 90s inland, similar temps in the upper 80s near the coast. Weak area of low pressure over the Atlantic waters east of VA/NC border will drag an ill-defined front southward through NC Sat night into Sun. Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will move east northeast reaching the southern Appalachians by Wed and off the coast Thurs into Fri.
The ridge aloft which is centered over northern Mexico and is responsible for the dry weather over the past few days is shifting west as a trough moves into the southeastern states. At the surface a ridge is centered in the north central gulf. A weak trough has drifted into the southeast states as well. Today the upper ridge will continue to shift west as the upper trough moves closer. A ridge will build back over the region during the middle of the coming week reducing rain chances once again. Weak high pressure will remain over the gulf through the weekend. Thunderstorm coverage will increase with a trough aloft producing localized higher winds and waves.
437 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Today through tonight: Cylonic flow on the east side of the subtropical ridge continues to support an active weather pattern over the ArkLaMiss region.
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will cover the region today, with warm and muggy conditions and temperatures just above normal.
530 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Midlevel moisture continues to increase across the Desert Southwest early this morning as the Pacific trough situated over the northwestern CONUS retreats to the northeast and a ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains migrates westward. Short-term models and CAM guidance indicate showers will initiate over southeast Utah this morning with activity spreading to the high country of southwest and west-central Colorado by noon. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats at the onset before dewpoints climb into the mid 30s and even the low 40s by mid afternoon, leading to brief heavy downpours with convection. Saturday will see the high's center retreat southwest over New Mexico before the ridge is shunted Saturday night by the arrival of the next Pacific trough over the northwest.
933 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure continues to ridge westward through the Florida Straits keeping a west-southwest onshore flow across west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. Scattered morning showers have developed over the gulf coast waters and are currently moving onshore across west central and southwest Florida with the highest coverage along the Nature Coast. Temperatures are already in the low to mid 80's and will quickly warm up into the 90's this afternoon. West-southwest winds around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet or less will prevail over the gulf coast waters as high pressure ridges over southern Florida. Daily scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day with the highest chances north of Tarpon Springs earlier in the day.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below The main forecast concern in the short term revolves around heat impacts under an upper ridge.
The Tri-State area will remain under southwest flow aloft through the day Friday with a ridge over the Eastern CONUS. A closed upper low will make its way ashore over British Columbia this morning. Saturday, the ridge will move over the Central High Plains with high pressure settling in over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures will once again reach the low to mid-90s across the region. A lee trough over the Rockies may help storms fire off along the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening.
227 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way. Today through Saturday night: A closed low moving into SW British Columbia early this morning will slowly move east and weaken into Saturday. Elevated CAPE off the NAM of 200-300 KG could even produce a thunderstorm but with only weak lift kept the slight chance to the evening hours over the higher terrain (Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie). For Saturday afternoon/evening the upper trough axis swings across the region. The trough passage will create locally breezy conditions near the Cascade gaps both this evening again Saturday evening as cooler marine air channels through these areas.
Upper level ridging is solidly in place Saturday, although that doesn't translate to a dry forecast. While 700 mb temperatures will be on the rise, models suggest the possibility of energy riding the ridge and thunderstorms maintaining along the edge of the CAP, which depending on the model, could easily be placed over our CWA.
Increased cloud cover will contribute to keeping temperatures cooler Saturday, likely leading to the coolest day out of the next 7.
As broad troughing across Western Canada and the United States deepens along the Pacific Coast, the ensuing southwesterly flow will gradually bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to southwest Montana this afternoon and evening. A similar pattern is expected on Independence Day (Saturday), though the temperatures should be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover.
Temperatures will slowly increase into the holiday weekend as high pressure begins to strengthen across SoCal.
Recent HRRR runs have backed off convection in the north-central this afternoon, which makes sense given the initial ridging pattern. In the upper levels, a persistent southwest flow pattern continues with a broad trough over British Columbia and Alberta and a ridge axis stretching from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. Likely the best chance for thunderstorms will come when orographically forced convection off the higher terrain of MT/WY will move into our west later this evening.
Upper level trough over the area through tonight will shift east Saturday.
as a deep southwesterly flow piles up against a sharp H5 ridge over northeast MN.
349 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure remains in place across the region through the weekend. High pressure ensures clearing skies as it noses in from the west into Saturday night. The H5 ridge that had buckled over the eastern U.
A large-amplitude synoptic ridge continues to reside over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, with a mid-level positively tilted trough axis that was draped into the Southeast continuing to erode away. In the low-levels, a typical, moist summer-time airmass resides with PWATS between 1. MLCAPE values are better to the south and west which will help with convective development, but low mid-level lapse rates from the weak subsidence from the upper-level trough should keep storms from being too strong in the Southeast today. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s with morning lows generally around 70, which is running just slightly above climatological norms, with heat indices around the upper 90s to low triple digits today for much of central GA.
1120 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will ridge across the area today.
This afternoon through Saturday night Hot and dry conditions will continue today, as the region is sandwiched between a large area of high pressure over the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies and another in a series of low pressure centers over the PACNW. Cooler temperatures and chances for showers/afternoon thunderstorms will continue over the northwest. A persistent trough/upper low will continue over the Pacific Northwest and a mainly dry southwest flow across the forecast area.
1234 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Pac NW upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region. Other isolated TS will be possible over the northern and central Black Hills, mainly the higher elevations this afternoon.
For Independence Day, the models are in general agreement that ridging will be developing aloft.
The amplification to the pattern will be muted some as the deep west coast trough pulls back north toward Canada and a series of waves works across southern Canada, though keeping mainly north of the Great Lakes at least through the weekend. This retreat will allow the subtropical ridge to spread across most of the southern states keeping the warm pattern over the conus going.
The CAMs seem to be in fairly decent agreement on a complex of thunderstorms coming out of the high plains and into our CWA. Our moisture will not have changed much, although a trough axis/weak frontal boundary will be moving into the CWA.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a rather diffuse pattern with weak high pressure located over northern ND, northern Great Lakes and eastern shores of Lake Huron. There is a very weak trough stretched west to east across central WI and that is the focus for the current isolated thunderstorm activity. Little change synoptically-speaking on Saturday with the upper ridge holding over the western Great Lakes, weak high pressure to our north and east, and more heat/humidity to contend with. 8H temperatures remain in the +18 to +20C range with dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s north, upper 60s to around 70 degrees south. A fairly persistent trough over the western US will keep ridging in place from the southern plains into the Great Lakes region.
High temperatures will reach the low 90s before storms become widespread, with heat indices climbing to around 105 degrees in the Big Bend.
The region will remain between 500mb ridge to the west and a area of weak upper troughing across western MO.
1144 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Midlevel moisture continues to increase across the Desert Southwest early this morning as the Pacific trough situated over the northwestern CONUS retreats to the northeast and a ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains migrates westward. Short-term models and CAM guidance indicate showers will initiate over southeast Utah this morning with activity spreading to the high country of southwest and west-central Colorado by noon. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats at the onset before dewpoints climb into the mid 30s and even the low 40s by mid afternoon, leading to brief heavy downpours with convection. Saturday will see the high's center retreat southwest over New Mexico before the ridge is shunted Saturday night by the arrival of the next Pacific trough over the northwest.
1005 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Weak upper ridging and high pressure at the surface should keep most of the Northland dry and very warm today. Highs should again be in the upper eighties to lower nineties but a weak lake breeze can be expected to keep lakeside areas a bit cooler this afternoon. Weak lake breezes will again occur keeping lakeside area cooler.
GOES-16 Satellite trends and 12Z upper air analysis place the Mid-South on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis.
Surface winds variable less than 10 kts, except southwest 10-20 kts after 18Z in the higher elevations.
406 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 An Appalachian-lee trough will redevelop over VA and the Carolinas today, then persist ahead of a backdoor front that will settle south across VA and the nern half of NC Sat and Sat night. At the surface, a cold front analyzed from CT nwwd across cntl NY will sag swd across srn/sern VA and nrn/nern NC on Sat, immediately preceded by a pre-frontal trough. Otherwise, the warm sector over the Carolinas will be a hot and deeply mixed one with surface dewpoints likely to mix out into the lwr-mid 60s ahead of the trough/front.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Temperatures will fall to the low 60s across the North Country to the low to mid 60s across Western NY. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s today as an upper level ridge parks itself over the region. Overall the area will remain dry but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain this afternoon. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 71 91 72 90 / 10 10 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 91 71 91 / 0 0 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 50.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Hot and dry with an H5 ridge centered upstream and high pressure over the West Gulf and coastal Texas.
With high pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio Valley, expect another hot and humid day, with a very limited potential for diurnal convection. However, given the subsidence from the ridge it will be tough to generate any robust updrafts to produce anything other than a few brief, isolated showers and storms. As has been the trend with this pattern lately, have trended a degree or two above guidance and think highs in the lower 90s will common across most valley locations. The aforementioned ridge will continue to build across the central US through the remainder of the short term period. Overnight lows will be on the mild side, dropping into the lower 70s each night.
This should result in a little better coverage of afternoon/evening showers and scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain with similar hazards of gusty outflow winds and lightning.
This afternoon through Saturday night Hot and dry conditions will continue today, as the region is sandwiched between a large area of high pressure over the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies and another in a series of low pressure centers over the PACNW. Cooler temperatures and chances for showers/afternoon thunderstorms will continue over the northwest.
The easterly flow around the anticyclone in the vicinity of the Great Lakes should also advect a bit lower dew points into the region from the Ohio Valley tempering the humidity a bit.
The region will remain situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west through the period, with hot and humid conditions in place, which is always conducive to convective development.
/issued 516 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ (Today and Tonight) With an upper ridge firmly in place, over the region, dry conditions and hot temperatures will continue. According to climate data, afternoon highs, for early July, usually average around the lower to mid 90s.