Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED NEAR KOLU. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THE PAST 24 HRS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR SALINA KS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS KANSAS AND FILL AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA. ALL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS DRY LAYER AND THE GENERAL WEAK NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT MAY TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CIGS.
1126 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DIVES SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES. CLOSED LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AROUND 850-800 MB EARLY FRIDAY EVENING MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW IN OUR FAR EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY FROM PINE RIDGE TO FAITH AND WINNER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WILL MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
418 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY AS OT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTH. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS TODAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR UNDERNEATH AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW CIRCULATION. 50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOW TRACK.
652 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING WARM AND DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT BE COOLER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND ARROWHEAD. SATURDAY STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH AN ERODING CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND INDIAN SUMMER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY EARLY TODAY.
UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LOW OVER PLAINS DRIFTS SOUTH. THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
254 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 A large area of high pressure over southeast Canada will continue to bring pleasant weather to central Illinois for the next 24 hours. Focus in the shorter term remains with the upper low currently moving north-northwest through Georgia. Showers continue to be progged along the northern and eastern flanks of the low track, with a few conceivably reaching the extreme southeast CWA late tonight.
406 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM GEORGIA TO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO FAN NORTHWARD FROM UPPER LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS TODAY.
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A 500 MB BUILD INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA DROPS SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH HRRR/RAP SHOWING BEST FOG IN THE SOUTH AND WESTERN FCST AREA SEENS REASONABLE WHILE ERN FCST AREA SEES THE LOW CLOUDS. WARMER SATURDAY WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 80 OR LOW 80S.
414 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING WARM AND DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS.
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED BETWEEN A SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AL/GA REGION AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 4CNRS REGION OF UT/AZ/NM/CO. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO REFORM ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS INLAND ACROSS NW DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS AS IT LIFTS UP INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
While there is quite a bit of mid and upper level cloud cover out there early this morning, these clouds should clear from northwest to southeast beginning late this morning through the afternoon hours, and could result in highs being a few degrees warmer today.
403 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. BUT MID- LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ILLUSTRATE A NEARLY STATIONARY MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA-ALABAMA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO HI 70S OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
346 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN TODAY EAST OF EL PASO.
311 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DIMINISHES AND HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELAXED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT SINKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM GEORGIA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY.
/issued 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate most of the conus. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 80s and northeast winds.
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONE SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE OTHER IS A LENGTHY PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST.
On Friday a dry cold front will cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. The flat ridge of high pressure over the region continues to deflate as weather disturbances pass through it which is allowing the gradual cooling trend to continue today. A cold front will pass through the region Friday and allow for breezy conditions and substantial cool down most apparent in forecast high temps for Friday.
247 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND THIS COMBINED WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACT TOGETHER TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE IN OREGON AND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORCING FROM AN UPPER TROF. AND UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR.
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE EAST. THE REINFORCED RIDGING SHOULD REDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA WIDE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RELEGATED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12500 AND 13000 FT TODAY. AFTER TODAY, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING EAST WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THENCE PARKING ALOFT AS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO 500 MB RIDGES CENTERED BOTH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS PENETRATING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ARE UNDERNEATH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
254 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR TODAY WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS CAPPED OFF ANY CONVECTION. WHICH WOULD EASILY BE THE HIGHEST VALUES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN.
906 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
646 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO/KANSAS. COOLER SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY TRANQUIL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH A GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING INCREASES FROM THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO NRN/CNTRL NEB.
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015/ FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. FORECAST MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA LATER TODAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STORMS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN LOOMING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO BRING SOME DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE AREA TODAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 22-23C THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY SEASONAL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE EAST. THE REINFORCED RIDGING SHOULD REDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA WIDE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RELEGATED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. THE ACTIVITY WAS CAUSED BY A MID LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12500 AND 13000 FT TODAY. AFTER TODAY, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING EAST WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
A WEAK 500MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA. INDICATIVE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
405 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHER PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12500 AND 13000 FT TODAY. AFTER TODAY, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING EAST WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
144 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING INLAND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE TO DRY FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
AND HAD GROWN DEEP ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO REACH RIDGETOPS.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LAKE ERIE. CONVECTION DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS AND SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS. PER BUILDING FROM THE EAST BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT THU THRU SAT NIGHT. AT LEAST INITIALLY AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE GA OR ERN FL COAST BY SAT MORNING. AND DESPITE THESE BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. MORE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SE TO NW AS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT PROGRESS. THE MAIN WX SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
A BROAD UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOT AND WINDY DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/ EXPECTING JUST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
/ISSUED 442 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Another dry, breezy, warm and sunny day is on tap for West Central Texas today as temperatures soar into the lower to mid 90s areawide. A broad ridge of high pressure across the Southern Plains will continue to produce sinking air which tends to dry and warm the airmass over the area.
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE HIGHRE MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
In contrast, some locations may struggle to reach the lower 80s where cloud cover and precipitation are more prevalent. In contrast, some locations may struggle to reach the lower 80s where cloud cover and precipitation are more prevalent.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN NORTHERN MN. TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST QPF. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG I-80 THROUGH IA/IL. MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE WARM FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED/ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA. WILL ALSO SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHER CAPE POOL/WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THINKING WARM FRONT WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MINIMIZING TORNADO THREAT BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WARM FRONTAL POSITION VERY CLOSELY FOR SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARIZONA AND UTAH BORDER WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TODAY.
For Friday, an upper ridge will continue to try to nudge into the Ohio Valley from the SE while a weakening cold front drops down from the north. With slightly better storm coverage expected for Friday, high temps should be a degree or two cooler than today. Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the lower 70s.
616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MDCRS WIND PLOT SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FINALLY BE FORCED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH NEBRASKA UNTIL SOME TIME AFTER TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO/KANSAS. COOLER SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
1233 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/ THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING.
1231 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MDCRS WIND PLOT SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FINALLY BE FORCED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH NEBRASKA UNTIL SOME TIME AFTER TONIGHT.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO NW OK LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS AREA. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND STALLS.
A FEW WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HUSTON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS.
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
00 CSUC1: NORTHRIDGE : M / M / M PSAC1: PASADENA : 78 / 62 / 0.
330 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH A GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING INCREASES FROM THE EAST.
Additional storms are anticipated to develop along the cold front and those too are expected to be strong to severe. Lastly a portion of a MCS may work in from the southwest very late tonight along and north of the cold front. In the near term, clearing skies will develop along with increasing southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the cold front and storms, northwesterly winds and a FEW-SCT cloud deck will persist through the remaining period.
156 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
908 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST TODAY.