Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build into the area behind a departing cold front today, and persist across the region over the next several days. A deep upper low over the Great Lakes will slowly move northward today and tonight, keeping an upper trof across our region. As of 230 AM Thursday: Gorgeous weather looks on tap for the first weekend of fall, as cool, dry high pressure settles over the area.
704 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail in the wake of the cold front. As the day progresses, expect only very modest warming, if any, given the cloud cover and cooler air w/ afternoon highs topping out in the 50s. After sunset clouds should gradually break from south to north as high pressure builds and the low pressure system over the Great Lakes exits north. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage which will result in precip chance. With strong cold air advection behind the exiting cold front, persistent high IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected through much of the day.
157 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A slow-moving cold front will push through eastern Pennsylvania today.
Another clear blue sunny day is expected tomorrow as high pressure settles in over the region. Dewpoints tonight may drop into the upper 40s/low 50s region-wide with lows generally in the low to mid 50s! Daytime highs tomorrow are generally expected to be in the low 80s.
Afternoon cirrus clouds will generally decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as a weak and dry frontal system passes harmlessly into the high plains.
an upper level trough and its associated cold front move through the area. Have lowered low temperatures a bit from previous forecast with forecast values in the low 40s to around 50 degrees.
355 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cooler and drier through Friday.
This southern stream trough will transport scattered high level clouds into our area tonight with coverage possibly increasing by Friday mid-morning. Southeastern portions of our CWA will be on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 80s.
(This evening through Friday) A strengthening 850 mb thermal ridge and return of warm southerly to southeasterly low-level and surface flow is bringing warmer temperatures today. As of noon, temperatures are several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tonight, generally light-ish winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should bring some radiational cooling, although it should not be as cold as the past 2 mornings due to the overall warmer airmass. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s south of the Big Country, and mid to upper 50s in the Big Country. Friday, a couple degrees of additional warming is likely as the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens further along with enhanced southerly flow.
(This evening through Friday) A strengthening 850 mb thermal ridge and return of warm southerly to southeasterly low-level and surface flow is bringing warmer temperatures today. As of noon, temperatures are several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tonight, generally light-ish winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should bring some radiational cooling, although it should not be as cold as the past 2 mornings due to the overall warmer airmass. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s south of the Big Country, and mid to upper 50s in the Big Country. Friday, a couple degrees of additional warming is likely as the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens further along with enhanced southerly flow. (Friday night through next Thursday) Pleasant weather will continue across West Central Texas through the weekend, as weak high pressure aloft prevails.
Some of the high valleys may still fall below freezing. Highs in the plains will stay in the 70's, with 60's for most of the high country. Temperatures will climb back towards 90 over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West.
156 PM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021 An area of low pressure will lead to cooler weather and a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend. As this area of low pressure moves eastward, another area of low pressure will approach the west coast. This will lead to continued cooler weather with night and morning low clouds for the coast and western valleys.
/AJ/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures. Broad upper level troughing will remain over the region through the period. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the lower 50s at most locations but our normally colder locations in the northeast may dip into the upper 40s.
Continued northwest flow aloft across the high plains with leeside troughing deepening over eastern Colorado. However,an approaching upper level disturbance will increase mid to upper level clouds into the early morning hours with an approaching cold front passing through the CWA late morning to mid afternoon. Timing is a bit uncertain with model inconsistency, but highs should be a few degrees cooler Friday in the low to mid 80s, warming into south central Kansas. On Friday the main, stronger, upper level trough will exit Canada and cross the Northern Plains during the day as a surface cold front drops south into Kansas late day. Some cooler air will work its way into western Kansas late day as a east northeasterly flow develops behind this cold front. Highs will be a little tricky given this shallow invasion of cooler air.
332 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 High pressure provided the area with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Friday and Friday night, a cold front will move into the area with scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms. With skies clearing quickly behind the front, lows will slip back into the low 40s NW to upper 40s south.
A strong upper level low pressure system was located over OH valley with northwest flow on the back side of the low across the forecast area. The upper low will lift into eastern Michigan today and we'll continue in northwest flow aloft but should see upper height rises across the area. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with the dry air mass still in place and temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph will be possible on Friday in advance of the next cold front and upper level system. We should see temperatures boost up slightly higher into the low to mid 80s.
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A strong cold front has swept through the region allowing cool air for late September to reach the Ohio Valley.
Temps will be warmer Friday with southerly winds expected ahead of the front.
H500 ridge building over the Panhandles will continue with large scale subsidence over the region with dry conditions into tomorrow. Perhaps a bit cooler in the northern Panhandles if the weak cold front can make its way further south into the Panhandles by tomorrow afternoon. Low tomorrow night, especially for areas behind cold front in the northern Panhandles may drop into the upper 40s with mid 50s out ahead of the front.
High pressure at the surface will continue to build eastward today bringing tranquil conditions to the region. Northerly flow will continue to bring a cooler airmass and below normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's across the area.
An area of upper level ridging continues to shift east early this morning with an approaching compact trough moving across ID per latest WV imagery. This low looks to dive south across UT later today, but will still pass a weak cold front through the area.
Meanwhile, a digging trough in the northern Rockies has resulted in a bit of ridging in between across our section of the Plains States. The gusty winds will be occurring ahead of a cold front that the north Rockies trough will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening.
The cooler airmass has brought temperatures down below normal and more fall-like. A tight pressure gradient between the front and the high pressure center, currently far west of the area, has ensured breezy conditions this afternoon and will keep winds from becoming calm overnight. Winds will shift more northerly overnight as the high slowly creeps east. Low temperatures will be below average once again in the low to mid 50s. High confidence forecast for Fall weather over the forecast area during this period as high pressure continues to build over the Carolinas.
Very quiet so far today with the region under slight ridging between the upper low over MI and the trough digging through southern Canada. The trough to our northwest will move into the Dakotas/MN tonight, and should help push the cold front that is currently just entering the northwestern counties the rest of the way through the CWA. Kept the low POPs we had going, with minimal QPF reaching the ground. The cold front will help knock temps near the Canadian border to around 40, with low 50s further south where the front comes through later and clouds hang on a bit longer. A few weak vorts on the back side of the trough could bring a few showers to the Lake of the Wood region Friday evening, but again amounts and impacts will be minimal.
High pressure continues to build across the Great Basin, bringing warming temperatures and quiet weather into the upcoming weekend.
The clouds are along a leading edge of an upper ridge which will build into the area through Friday.
East to southeast winds will bring in a little more low level moisture for Friday night with lows 4-5 degrees warmer over inland areas.
227 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 High pressure is building into the region with a cool and dry airmass settling in for the weekend.
These clouds should disperse by early afternoon as an upper-level trough axis pivots northeastward and away from the region. High pressure at the surface will move eastward into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies expected. Low level stratu-cu should continue at least for a few more hours before finally moving out as the base of a strong upper level low lifts north. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 74 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 73 50 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 73 51 76 53 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 72 45 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 0.
The base of the upper level low lifts north this afternoon and overnight as high pressure at the surface moves east and settles over the Southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. Areas across the high terrain of the Smokies will likely see lows in the upper 30's. Mostly clear skies and below normal temperatures are expected with daytime highs topping out in the lower 70's across the valley and upper 60's in the higher terrain.
254 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 An upper low currently centered across the Lower Great Lakes will continue to lift slowly north-northeastward during the near term period, in response to a northern stream trough shifting eastward across Alberta/Saskatchewan.
On Friday afternoon and evening, a cold front will move east through the region.
Troughing aloft over the Great Lakes region and northeast CONUS maintains a west-northwest flow aloft over our region through the period. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure continues to build across the Mississippi Valley region and adjacent north central Gulf Coast region through the end of the work week and going into the short term. Expect low temperatures to tank into the low 50s across inland communities with upper 50s to right around 60Â° at the beaches by Friday morning. Highs on Friday trend a bit warmer as high pressure continues to build into the region through Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80Â°.
233 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. High pressure covers much of the area just west of the Mississippi River. The center of high pressure will move over the Mid-South tonight keeping things dry and cooler across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 50s. This will allow warmer air to return to the region. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Frost advisory for the bogs and northern counties as temperatures forecasted to reach the low and mid 30s. This dry air is a result of an upstream upper-level ridge which will provide similar weather today as the last couple of days. Likely more than just cumulus clouds in our eastern counties from the downstream low pressure system. This keeps tonight's overnight lows in the high 30s to high 40s and removes likelihood of having another frost advisory. Clouds build Friday morning ahead of an upper-level trough digging southeast across the Northern Plains into the Midwest.
Otherwise, within the last hour a narrow line just north of the lower Keys have started to come alive with showers and thunderstorms. Looking beyond the Florida Keys, a surface cold front has stalled across north central Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft a low and mid level trough remains draped across the area, which continues to bring relatively deep moisture. This morning's sounding showed decent dry air above 500 mb and even looking at the satellite derived PWat products, we can see that the dry air extends down to the surface behind said aforementioned cold front. As we go into the weekend, the trough will break down and a modified continental air mass will push into the region thanks to a continental high pushing east into the southeast U.
The next chance for precip is Friday night as a weak cold front moves across the state. Low pressure is centered over eastern lower Michigan this afternoon while a ridge of high pressure is inching east to the Mississippi River Valley. Breezy northwest winds are in place across central Illinois between these features, but expect winds to drop off around sunset with loss of daytime heating and as the gradient continues to weaken with the approaching ridge axis. Winds will back to the southwest overnight as the ridge passes through the area. By Friday, the ridge will shift to our east with return flow overspreading central Illinois.
High pressure will be to the northwest through Friday, as front lingers to the east southeast of the region. Lows in the 50s will be common across inland areas of SE GA, with lows in the lower to middle 60s at the coast. A dry day is expected for Friday, but a few more clouds expected South due to weak inverted troughing, and moisture increasing as flow becomes more onshore in the afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): High pressure at the surface and a modest mid-level ridge upstream have combined to push drier air overhead. Low temperatures Friday night will be a touch warmer, from the mid 60s to near 70.
111 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A slow-moving cold front will push through eastern Pennsylvania today.
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A slow-moving cold front will push through eastern Pennsylvania today.
Continued northwest flow aloft across the high plains with leeside troughing deepening over eastern Colorado. However,an approaching upper level disturbance will increase mid to upper level clouds into the early morning hours with an approaching cold front passing through the CWA late morning to mid afternoon. Timing is a bit uncertain with model inconsistency, but highs should be a few degrees cooler Friday in the low to mid 80s, warming into south central Kansas.
1235 PM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Expect cooler temperatures with east winds for the rest of today, then a warming trend into the weekend.
In the low-levels, an associated cold front now over the northern High Plains will sweep southeast through our area late tonight and Friday morning. While the low-level air mass will remain rather dry, the magnitude of forcing for ascent coupled with a moist, mid-troposphere may be sufficient to support sprinkles or a few showers on Friday.
Still have cyclonic flow aloft, but stacked low pressure continues to rotate north over Easter Lower MI with heights aloft rising from the south. The low to the north continues to pull moisture away from the area, and now just seeing a SCT cu field over southeastern IN and the KY Bluegrass. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s early Friday in rural areas, with upper 40s/near 50 in the Louisville Metro. A low pressure system moves east over the Upper Midwest on Friday, resulting in strengthening WSW flow aloft and warm air advection. Friday afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lighter winds than today.
Cool low temperatures can be expected again tonight with favorable radiational cooling, especially across southeast MO and southwest IL closer to the ridge axis. Upper level divergence will increase ahead of an upper level trough moving eastward through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. A weakening cold front will drop southeastward through the area Friday night with scattered showers and a few storms along and just behind the front, mainly northeast and east of our forecast area. Coverage of showers does not look great and QPF looks light in our forecast region with limited low level moisture as the Gulf will be cut- off with surface ridging across the Gulf Coast states.
Tonight and Friday The main two forecast concerns for the short term period are the resolution of the closed low pressure system moving over the lower peninsula of Michigan this afternoon, and the arrival of the next round of rain Friday evening. The closed off low pressure system will continue to trek northwards this afternoon and evening, grazing the lakeshore counties with light rain and high clouds. Despite the clear skies and light winds, don't currently expect another chance for frost in the region, as temperatures through the lower layers are multiple degrees warmer than the setup we had last night. The low level ridge will start the day off dry tomorrow, with light winds and ample sunshine for the mid-morning.
Tomorrow, we will remain under a weakening trough, which will keep conditions sunny and dry. Dry air will remain persistent through the weekend into the beginning of the week as a ridge builds over the region in response to a low stretching across NM/AZ.
Winds will then become southerly near 5 kts as the high starts to shift eastward. Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s with mostly clear skies. Plenty of sunshine is in store for today, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Overnight lows tonight will once again fall into the lower to mid 50s across the region under mostly clear skies. As we move into Friday we will see broad upper level ridging across the western CONUS that will help our region remain under northwest flow aloft. This will also cause temperatures to increase by a few degrees here and there from what we are expecting today, with afternoon highs on Friday ranging from the lower 80s to mid 80s, with the warmer temperatures across our western zones.
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Yesterday's low pressure system continues to influence the upper flow as it remains anchored over the lower Great Lakes Region. Further amplification of the upper ridge tonight will lead to a dry forecast and strong radiational cooling. As surface flow becomes southwesterly tomorrow though, temperatures will rebound a bit back into the low to mid 70s. Forecast soundings become saturated in the lower levels once again early Friday night over the northwest portions of central Indiana as that trough and associated cold front approach the area. Ensemble means support a quick front passage though with the best forcing in the Sat 06-12Z time frame along and ahead of that cold front.
This afternoon through Friday night The cold front continues to make its way across the state this morning and is expected to cross the Divide by noon today. The front will also help to keep temperatures slightly cooler today and tomorrow, but still seasonable. As the trough passes, a bit of energy will continue to move across the region, resulting in the possibility of showers to form further east and across the mountains. Transitional northwest flow will be in place tomorrow, as ridging will try to build back in for the weekend.
Tonight will see lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s, coldest east where even cooler temperatures are likely in typical cold valleys. Friday will be warmer than today with highs in the low 80s. Upper level clouds will be on the increase ahead of an upper trough moving toward the area. An upper trough and surface cold front will move through Friday night, but the dry airmass is expected to allow nothing more than some sprinkles over the far northeastern CWA.
221 PM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Currently have a secondary cold front making it's way across Montana, bringing with it the cold air that lacking from last night's cold front. Friday will be cooler than today in the east, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s, but downslope flow in south-central Montana will allow temperatures to still rise into the low to mid 70s.
/Updated at 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021/ High pressure will remain over the area through the short term with almost completely clear skies. Northerly low and mid level flow will keep cooler and drier air advecting.
238 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A few high clouds are beginning to move into the region from the west ahead of an approaching cold front. By early Friday morning, the cold front will be knocking on western Minnesota's door with rain chances steadily increasing and expanding eastward through the early afternoon. Western Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota will have the highest chances of getting a few rumbles of thunder where the atmosphere will have a shot a destabilizing before the front arrives. Overall, QPF amounts remain rather unimpressive with the highest totals across western Wisconsin. CAA works in with clearing skies and will drop overnight temps back into the low 40s and upper 30s area wide.
Today will be very similar to yesterday, with afternoon highs in the low 70s west of I-35 and upper 60s east of I-35. Clouds will move in overnight Thursday as a trough enters the region. The rain and northwesterly flow, resulting in CAA, will cap our afternoon high temperatures on Friday in the lower 60s.
As for high temperatures on Friday, an upper level trof moves across the upper midwest, bringing cooler air aloft just glances the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska, thus kept temperatures on the cool side across that area with highs in the low 70s. For southwest Nebraska, warmed temperatures up into the mid to upper 70s, might even potentially need to go slightly warmer, as this area is no expected to see as cool of an air mass aloft.
231 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and Dry high pressure builds in across the southeastern United States today.
(This afternoon through Friday night) An upper trough/cutoff low is centered over Michigan and another trough is over the mountains in the western half of the country. Upper ridging is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s. Temperatures tonight will be a little warmer than last night with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.
Models are in decent agreement on bringing a cold front to the western edge of our CWA between 03Z-06Z. With the cold air advection it will be a cooler day, but with enhanced mixing and some sunshine by the afternoon, 60s to near 70 will be reached. On Friday night surface ridging builds into the region.
High pressure has moved off to the east, allowing southerly winds to return. The resulting WAA has boosted highs a bit compared to yesterday, with current temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures should only fall into the mid/upper 50s as WAA increases ahead of a strong upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest. This trough will push a weak cold front through the area tomorrow. However plentiful dry air in the low-levels should keep any rainfall amounts to a few hundredths of an inch or less.