Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hennig (This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes region to the Gulf Coast with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under upper ridging. The upper ridge shifts further east on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.
817 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Early evening IR and water vapor satellite imagery are showing a band of moisture draped across the Florida Peninsula associated with the prefrontal trough.
524 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with upper trof working into the western CONUS, and distinct wave over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, broad trof over eastern MT/eastern WY with best pressure falls over western SD. Stronger wave arrives Saturday, with better moisture in place near/east of the Black Hills given inverted trof extending north into far western SD. Temps should be wide ranging from west to east given inverted trof.
However, the upper trough will take much of the night to shift eastward, maintains a cloud deck and scattered precipitation with plenty of low level moisture present. Any measurable precipitation will be through the early afternoon on the back edge/deformation of the departing upper trough - mainly south and east of Pittsburgh.
The one notable exception is the possibility of sprinkles or light rain in the North Bay Saturday afternoon and potentially into the Bay Area itself Saturday evening, as the tail end of a weak cold front passes through.
While readings in the upper 80s and 90s have felt reasonably comfortable the past couple of days due to low humidity, dewpoints in the low 60s will make a return tomorrow resulting in a more hot and humid feel typical of early summer. Wind speeds will likely stay up through the overnight hours with the boundary layer not expected to fully decouple, while lows only fall into the lower 70s.
A short wave trough will move into the area Saturday, enhancing the chances for both a greater coverage of, and stronger, thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
654 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region during the holiday weekend.
1009 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region during the holiday weekend.
Clearing quickly move through the western CWA this morning, as dewpoints in the 40s mixed through the low level moisture on northwest winds. Alas, for the eastern 2/3, north winds cyclonically flowing around the upper low to our east have anchored that clearing line from just west of Dubuque to Mt Pleasant through 2 PM. Some shallow ground fog is possible, especially in Illinois where the low level moisture is unlikely to mix out before sunset. In any case, Saturday morning, winds will switch to the south, and we'll quickly transition to a breezy warmer day.
Another round of cloud cover is on the way later this afternoon and evening as a Pacific trough begins to make its way over the PacNW extending into Northern California through this weekend.
A few isolated showers/sprinkles continue to rotate around the backside of the upper level low parked near the IN/OH border this afternoon. This is where the highest chance for appreciable rain exists through late afternoon. As the upper low departs further northeast, skies will begin to clear this evening and overnight. A warming trend will commence this weekend as upper level ridging begins to build in.
924 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning. Although high res data suggests convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front, expect this to be sub-severe. The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn. The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/ the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though some SCT aftn clouds are likely.
819 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A cold front will cross the region overnight bringing some cooler overnight lows. High pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Regional radar shows the stronger storms and widespread rain has shifted to the coast with only isolated showers just ahead of the cold front over the Upstate and into the upper CSRA. Temperatures should be a couple of categories cooler tonight with the cooler and drier air arriving behind the front with lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s west to mid 60s east. Upper low will be moving into the northeast Saturday morning with broad ridging across the central CONUS. The southernmost portion of the trough axis is expected to extend into the GoM, then cut off Saturday evening sometime.
334 PM MST Fri May 27 2022 A weather system this weekend will bring gusty winds, increased fire weather dangers, and noticeably cooler temperatures to the region.
(Rest of tonight) Rather chilly conditions (for late May) continued across the Tennessee Valley, as an upper low pressure system over Ohio heads eastward. Lower heights associated with this low, along with cooler air from the NW, and more clouds than sun made for a cool day with highs only in the low/mid 70s. Remnant low/mid altitude clouds ~4-6kft pinwheeling around this low remained over the area this evening. With high pressure over the region, light winds, and plenty of residual moisture from recent rainfall, patchy fog development is a possibility.
524 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended north-south across the north and central High Plains early this afternoon. Saturday, moderate southwest flow aloft downstream from a Pacific upper level trough over the Northwest CONUS will maintain stronger winds especially west of I-25 with gusts between 40 and 50 mph. High temperatures Saturday will be 5-10 degrees cooler, with 70s and 80s.
315 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended north-south across the north and central High Plains early this afternoon. Saturday, moderate southwest flow aloft downstream from a Pacific upper level trough over the Northwest CONUS will maintain stronger winds especially west of I-25 with gusts between 40 and 50 mph. High temperatures Saturday will be 5-10 degrees cooler, with 70s and 80s.
912 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning. Although high res data suggests convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front, expect this to be sub-severe. The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn. The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/ the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though some SCT aftn clouds are likely.
816 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Upper low continues to move northeastward just north of the mid state this evening. As the low continues its track northeast, breaks in the clouds and even some partly cloudy skies will allow for a bit more cooling in spots across the mid state, with temps in the 60s already close to dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Just a few showers have popped up across northern portions of Middle Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low that's keeping the clouds over us, slowly pulls off to the northeast.
An upper trough pattern will deepen and persist across the western U. over the next several days, leading to a continuation of cooler temperatures and chances for rain showers, possibly a thunderstorm, at times.
Coverage will decrease with the loss of diurnal heating however, the upper trough will take much of the night to shift eastward, maintaining a cloud deck and scattered precipitation with plenty of low level moisture present. Any measurable precipitation will be through the early afternoon on the back edge/deformation of the departing upper trough - mainly south and east of Pittsburgh.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 80 60 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 79 58 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 78 58 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 75 54 85 59 / 30 0 0 0 0.
At the surface, southerly winds should resume as high pressure moves off to the east.
622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Just a few showers have popped up across northern portions of Middle Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low that's keeping the clouds over us, slowly pulls off to the northeast.
942 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 As of 9:15 PM CDT, one more enjoyable night of cooler than normal temperatures are on the way to the Ark-La-Tex as winds have waned to light and variable speeds, allowing radiational cooling to kick in. /issued 624 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ For the 28/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail once again with lingering northwesterly winds becoming light and variable as high pressure shifts east across the airspace.
944 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Issued 942 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022) High pressure overhead tonight will result in mostly clear skies aside from passing high clouds at times, along with light winds. Confidence is not high in the fog, especially given the high clouds at times, so kept out of the forecast for now. DDV (Issued 220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Cloud cover continues to decrease on back side of departed low pressure system. A weak ridge takes hold overnight into early Saturday. The ridge shifts east Saturday and we start to get into a waa pattern.
Evening Update Still some lingering cloud cover across portions of West Tennessee this evening as the upper low continues its trek east toward the Mid-Atlantic States. Expect cloudy conditions expected today with highs in the lower 70s, with lows tonight in the upper 50s. Clouds will begin to break up by tomorrow blowing for temperatures to increase to the lower 80s. An upper level ridge will start to build into the area by Saturday and will continue to build throughout the weekend.
637 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The main feature affecting our weather through tomorrow afternoon is a 500mb ridge moving out of northern Mexico and into central Texas. This should result in a mild night ahead, with lows in the low to mid 70s. For tomorrow, the upper-level ridge axis will become centered right over south central Texas. 850mb temperatures will be in the 22-25 degree range, which is much warmer than Friday, and should translate to temperatures at or above 100 degrees area-wide.
In contrast, an upper-level trough and its associated front is pushing a pre-frontal boundary over central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Keys remain in a col region with light winds as a result of being in between a pre-frontal trough to our northwest and a ridge over the central Atlantic waters. High to mid-level clouds associated with a trough in the Bay of Campeche and low pressure area about 150 miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico will advect into the region tonight and cause partly cloudy conditions for most of the Keys over the next 24 hours. Late tonight and tomorrow, a few isolated showers are possible as the lower tropopause gradually moistens.
311 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper level low sliding east of the OH valley early this morning, and will move into the northeast US during the day. High pressure builds over the area late in the day and then slides east of the area overnight into Sunday morning.
1234 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Upper low continues to move northeastward just north of the mid state this evening. As the low continues its track northeast, breaks in the clouds and even some partly cloudy skies will allow for a bit more cooling in spots across the mid state, with temps in the 60s already close to dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Just a few showers have popped up across northern portions of Middle Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low that's keeping the clouds over us, slowly pulls off to the northeast.
Many places could see 90 or warmer on Saturday and Sunday.
Dry and cool conditions today as an upper ridge builds across the region. Southerly flow will keep overnight temperatures a bit warmer with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday as upper ridging remains in place.
Dry weather expected through the period as high pressure builds across the region. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 60 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 58 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 58 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 54 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 10.
High pressure currently in eastern Oklahoma will start to move to the ENE behind the cold front, settling into the Ohio River Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Aloft, trough axis will move over and offshore of the area Saturday morning and afternoon. However, with some semblance of vorticity aloft from the trough, the seabreeze may provide just enough lift for a very brief, isolated shower or thunderstorm in the Cape Fear region. Aloft, mid level ridging will become dominant.
Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge is over the central U. with upper low pressure over the northeast. The upper ridge will expand eastward today and will shift further east on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Highs will be in the lower 80s to near 90 today and mid 80s to lower 90s Sunday.
/Issued 102 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022/ /Through Saturday Night/ Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show another quiet but slightly warmer night under clear skies and light southeast winds. /NEW/ /Sunday and beyond/ North and Central Texas will be located between an upper trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the Appalachians to start the period on Sunday. By this time, a strong lee-side cyclone will be in place, producing a narrow pressure gradient across Texas and the Southern Plains.
Nonetheless, slightly drier air tries to move down into the area as high pressure builds from the west, but will likely not make it south of the I-4 corridor.
As the H85 thermal ridge expands across the area today, afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s and 90s, warmest across central and western Kansas. Better chances for early evening and overnight storms across central KS should arrive on Memorial Day as a cold front settles south across the area late in the day.
Strong large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper low, combined with plenty of low level moisture and marginal instability, is causing convection to redevelop late this evening across the forecast area. The focus for overnight convection should be along a trailing cold front, which is lifting into the central mountains at 03Z and progged to move through the Susq Valley around 06Z. However, deep moisture on the back side of upper low is likely to result in lingering low cigs and light rain showers across the Allegheny Plateau, where sfc-700mb RH values near 100 pct late tonight. The aforementioned upper low shifts to the east of the area by Saturday afternoon.
However while looking at satellite the low deck in southern Saskatchewan appears to retreating to the north rather than dropping south so have held off on this. An upper trough pattern will deepen and persist across the western U. over the next several days, leading to a continuation of cooler temperatures and chances for rain showers, possibly a thunderstorm, at times.
- Warmer and more humid conditions expected through the Memorial Day weekend.
136 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region during the holiday weekend.
As the day progresses an upper level ridge axis currently over Texas will shift eastward, broaden and lift northeastward as a weak upper level low develops over the Gulf Coast. A mid and low lvl high pressure system sets up across the eastern Carolinas underneath a broad long wave trough stretched across much of the eastern CONUS.
/issued 917 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ Still some lingering cloud cover across portions of West Tennessee this evening as the upper low continues its trek east toward the Mid-Atlantic States. Expect cloudy conditions expected today with highs in the lower 70s, with lows tonight in the upper 50s. Clouds will begin to break up by tomorrow blowing for temperatures to increase to the lower 80s. An upper level ridge will start to build into the area by Saturday and will continue to build throughout the weekend.
257 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning. Although high res data suggests convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front, expect this to be sub-severe. The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn. The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/ the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though some SCT aftn clouds are likely. Mostly clear/sunny Sat night/Sunday as high pressure settles over the region and slides offshore Sun aftn.
331 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Today through tonight: high pressure and a dry airmass will persist over the forecast area as we go through the weekend. Temperatures will rebound today into the lower to middle 80s under sunny skies, and mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to cool off quickly this evening.
This is thanks to low-amplitude upper ridging over the Rockies in between the departing upper low and a trough offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Adding these two factors together, we should see highs from the mid 80s in eastern KS to the low 90s in north central areas. Heading into Sunday, the low-level wind field strengthens further and keeps gusty south winds in place with the thermal axis over the state. There would be a narrow window of opportunity in this time frame as the warm front pushes north through this area, when soundings depict an eroded cap, but the EML re-establishes itself into the evening with better upper support into NE where the exit region of the jet will be.
355 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Low chance of showers this afternoon and again tonight -- Latest GOES WV loop shows mid/upper trough departing the region to the east. Sustained low-level warm advection ahead of this low, coupled with an upper jet axis emerging from the Rockies, will contribute to pronounced mid/upper-level height rises over the eastern CONUS beginning on Sun. By 00z Tue, EPS and GEFS ensemble means both depict a closed anticyclone at 500 mb (588+ dam) centered over the OH Valley. -- Rain chances Tue night into Thu-- A surface cold front is expected to arrive during the Tue night / Wed timeframe, likely providing some focus for showers/thunderstorms, although timing/coverage details are uncertain. A ridge of high pressure will provide for light winds today.
1246 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 An upper ridge will keep clear skies over much of the area through the period. Expecting clear skies and light winds through tonight as surface ridging moves from the Red River northeast into TN by Sat morning. Through the weekend, a new longwave mid/upper trough will push across the western CONUS while a stout mid/upper ridge amplifies across the southeastern states. This ridge will effectively halt the progression of the western trough, although a deepening lee cyclone will keep elevated southerly low-level flow in play locally through the period.
Low level thermal ridge will also shift east over the area bringing much warmer temperatures today.
(Today) The upper level closed low continues to slowly exit to the northeast. Water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate that the low is centered near Lake Erie. Upper level heights will be on the rise across the area as the upper level low exits to the northeast and ridging builds in from the southwest.
1232 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Rest of tonight) Rather chilly conditions (for late May) continued across the Tennessee Valley, as an upper low pressure system over Ohio heads eastward. Lower heights associated with this low, along with cooler air from the NW, and more clouds than sun made for a cool day with highs only in the low/mid 70s. Remnant low/mid altitude clouds ~4-6kft pinwheeling around this low remained over the area this evening. With high pressure over the region, light winds, and plenty of residual moisture from recent rainfall, patchy fog development is a possibility.
317 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Cold front moves through this morning, then high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Water vapor imagery shows the primary trough axis aloft over the forecast area and the associated slow moving cold front across western SC will continue to push through overnight. With some downsloping component to the low level winds and good radiational heating, temps will rise into the mid-upper 80's despite post-cold frontal flow. Some subtle moisture return is possible overnight as a weak low level easterly jet develops as some troughing builds along the east coast. But otherwise, the setup is fairly close to ideal for radiational cooling overnight and lows will fall into the low-mid 60's.
944 PM PDT Fri May 27 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will be cooler than average with scattered showers.
While high pressure will dominate at the surface today, an upper level trough axis will swing into the CWA today with the tail end of it breaking off and forming a weak and broad upper level low.
The cooldown has begun, and expect cooler air to continue to flow into the region over the remainder of the holiday weekend.
The low clouds/IFR ceilings are expected to occasionally affect LRD/COT from 11-13Z. Mid-level ridging building in across South Texas should maintain hot and dry conditions through the rest of the afternoon and then again on Saturday. Onshore flow will gradually introduce moisture the boundary layer through Saturday, with winds to strengthen slightly more Saturday as an area of low pressure develops across the High Plains.
The entire area will have strong deep-layer shear underneath the strong trough aloft.
A closed mid to upper low over the Ohio Valley will continue to move east-northeast through Saturday as it transitions into an open trough. During this time, the trough will become un-phased with the northern portion moving out over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, the base of the trough will linger over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where it will become a weak cutoff upper low late Saturday night and into Sunday. Down at the surface, a weak boundary has pushed offshore this evening as a high pressure builds in to our north. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast given the cooler air advection and clear skies. Saturday night lows will be a tad warmer with temperatures in the 60s across the area.
Isolated to scattered showers will linger through the morning an upper low over the region fills and slowly transitions east. Precipitation will diminish by early afternoon with increasing subsidence as upper ridging builds in from the west.
1043 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with upper trof working into the western CONUS, and distinct wave over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, broad trof over eastern MT/eastern WY with best pressure falls over western SD. Stronger wave arrives Saturday, with better moisture in place near/east of the Black Hills given inverted trof extending north into far western SD. Temps should be wide ranging from west to east given inverted trof.
(Today) A band of storms advancing east across KS early this morning is associated with an advancing mid level warm front.