Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will remain in place over the region leading to hotter than normal conditions through the evening. Given the instability, warmer column aloft, and storms are expected to be garden variety. High pressure will persist overhead, resulting in hot and humid conditions with heat indices pushing 105-110. Drier air will filter into SE GA Thursday as a weak impulse skims the top of the high pressure.
Deep layer ridging will dominate today, helping to suppress convection. Highs today will reach into the mid 90s (above normal) with heat indices in the low to mid 100s. Low temperatures will also be above normal with the forecast lows for tonight in the low to mid 70s.
120 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 It will unfortunately remain dry the next several days, despite a cold front passing through on Thursday.
428 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Dry and hot conditions expected through Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. A cold front will move south through the area Friday night and become stationary south of the area.
Fairly benign evening across the Tennessee Valley region as an upper-level ridge of high pressure just to our east has significantly helped to squash any convection, subsequently resulting in a clear and dry evening. Otherwise, expect another warm and muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s. The main limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the entrainment of drier air/subsidence from a building upper high across the southern Atlantic Coast. Look for highs in the lower 90s again on Thursday, then in the upper 80s on Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s through the end of the work week. At the beginning of this period, an upper ridge will be extending west through the Gulf States, while a large upper trough will be carved across much of the north central and northeastern CONUS.
The remainder of the week will see the upper ridge over the western states building back eastward over the central High Plains. This will result in continued dry and warmer weather with highs climbing back into the upper 80s and 90s. The GFS and GEM models keep this pattern as an open wave transitioning east across the central and eastern CONUS while the ECMWF model closes the wave into a deep upper low somewhere over the Rockies or Great Basin. A dry cold front will move across the terminals tomorrow morning around 15-16Z.
Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon through tonight as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. On Thursday a cold front will sweep through the area during the morning but no precipitation is expected. Windy conditions will develop behind the cold front which will cause humidity levels to drop through the afternoon. This Weekend Above normal temperatures are forecast as the eastern extent of the Southwest upper ridge nudges into the Midwest.
This high, however, stretches wealth way into central Nebraska, and it's this leading edge of the high pressure that will move through the area today around mid day. Some areas across central and southern Missouri may hold onto these higher dewpoints into the evening, but the bulk of the forecast area should see a rather pleasant late afternoon and evening with that cooler and drier air advecting in from the north.
1036 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows warm front has pushed east of SD. with series of weak sfc trofs moving east across SD attm. with cold front now pushing into nwrn MT. Thursday will be a cooler day as 850hpa temps fall back into the teens.
The mid level trough will remain north over the Hill Country today, while the reflected surface boundary drifts south towards our area.
1256 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The upper level trof that has been affecting our area for the last several days is finally beginning to move out of the area.
A weak cold front will approach the area from the north this evening. The aforementioned cold front will continue to push southward through the morning hours Friday before eventually slowing and stalling near I-40.
Today will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and continued breezy. Minimum relative humidities are also expected to be a little higher across the west, mainly in the low 20s which will also help keep fire weather concerns in check.
Quite warm temperatures returning Friday as the CWA remains under a dry nwly flow aloft on the northeast side of an upper high over the sw CONUS.
Besides the breezy winds, the cool front will shave off a few degrees in the highs compared to yesterday. For tonight, high pressure will settle off to our northeast. With a cooler and drier airmass prevailing across southwest Kansas. Tonight will be a good open window night with the cooler and drier air prevailing during the morning hours. For Friday, a lee trough will deepen slightly.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Beautiful day today with sunny skies, warmer temperatures and generally light westerly flow. A trough is descending southeast into the northern Plains this afternoon and a surface cold front has sagged south into northeastern MT and northwestern ND. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler Thursday with lows Thursday night likely to fall into the 40s and low 50s.
But local water concerns cannot be ruled out given the high PW's across the area along with an increasing likelihood of deeper convective elements. The WFO PAH forecast area is poised on the southern end of a faster northwest zonal flow, sandwiched between a low-middle level ridge center over Nevada and a closed low sprawled across the Hudson Bay in Canada.
342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough currently over our area will continue moving slowly southeast and weaken just southeast of our CWA tonight. The highest rain chances will be across the southeast part of the area for the next 24 hours.
1041 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Currently - A lower level ridge extends across Florida resulting in moderate east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The ridge will remain the dominant feature for our area this afternoon, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes along the Keys and surrounding waters. Mostly moderate easterly breezes will be found on Keys waters this afternoon due to a ridge across Florida.
/issued 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough currently over our area will continue moving slowly southeast and weaken just southeast of our CWA tonight. The highest rain chances will be across the southeast part of the area for the next 24 hours.
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
849 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Going forecast was is good shape, with the main story for today being that it's cooler and less windy than yesterday.
Upper level ridge will cause a gradual warming trend over the next couple of days, as onshore flow weakens.
505 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Sub-tropical ridging over the southeast states will continue to be the primary influence on our weather today and tonight. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s, but the aforementioned dry air will help dew points mix out into the lower 70s, thus precluding a threat for dangerous heat stress. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low 70s area wide beneath partly cloudy skies.
High pressure will continue building west from the southern Atlantic Coast, and subsidence associated with this should keep thunderstorm activity limited and confined to extreme northern AL and southern TN. High temperatures will top out in the lower 90s today, with afternoon heat indices once again nearing 100 degrees. The cold front will slide underneath the mid and upper level ridge during the day on Friday, and will bring with it scattered convection, despite subsidence from the high aloft. A later frontal passage would mean warmer temperatures. High pressure filters in Friday night, sharply ending any showers or thunderstorms and ushering in a drier airmass. Look for lows Friday night to drop to the low to mid 60s with mostly clear skies.
The upper-level trough has moved toward a north central Texas to southeast oklahoma axis this morning with the precipitation pushed out ahead of it into northeast Texas. Although the primary focus has shifted southeast of the area, there is some potential for some showers or storms in far southeast Oklahoma with the trough in the proximity, so will keep some low POPs in the that area. A northern stream upper-level trough is moving through the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region which is helping to push a cold front currently in Nebraska southward through the Plains. This in combination with the clearing skies behind the southeast Oklahoma trough axis, it will be a relatively warm day today.
The highest chances for showers will be near and north of I-94 over the next few hours, but isolated showers/sprinkles may occur farther south through the I-90 corridor. Will see gusty winds as the low-level winds just off the surface ramp up through sunrise, especially for ridgetops and higher elevations. A windy and cooler day is in store today behind the cold front. Skies will clear during the day, although some thicker cu/stratocu may persist across northern WI closer to the departing trough and mid-level cold pool. Winds will subside tonight as high pressure builds in.
Deep layer ridging, while slightly further north than yesterday, will continue to provide subsidence across ECFL. Afternoon temperatures reach the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland. Deep layer ridging across the region providing additional subsidence. Low-level ridge axis across the central (Brevard County) FL peninsula.
/TW/ Sub-tropical ridging over the southeast states will continue to be the primary influence on our weather today and tonight. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s, but the aforementioned dry air will help dew points mix out into the lower 70s, thus precluding a threat for dangerous heat stress. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low 70s area wide beneath partly cloudy skies.
615 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The cold front is continuing to work through the area this morning, leaving northwesterly winds in its wake. Temperatures today in the 70s will be below climatological averages, thanks to the northwesterly flow and much cooler temperatures at 850mb and 925mb.
A weak cold front will move through the TAF sites between 15-22Z today from north to south shifting wind from southwesterly to northerly at 10-15 kts. A weak cold front will move south through the Panhandles later this morning into the early afternoon hours. Warmer conditions for the southern TX Panhandle due to little impact likely from the cold front that may get mixed out by the time it reaches the aforementioned area. The main H500 high pressure system from the Great Basin region continues to build in from the east into the day tomorrow.
525 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Recent cold frontal passage through the overnight has brought in some breezy reports across the region coupled with pockets of low visibility from recent smoke/haze from recent fires up in MT. Otherwise a cooler day across the region with near-normal highs in the mid to upper 70s west of the Laramie range and up to the mid 80s eastward with no precipitation expected.
The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered off the southeast US Coast to the west of Bermuda with another ridge centered over the Four Corners vicinity. An upper level low is expected to be moving across portions of Quebec at that point with an upper level trough extending into the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, as well as central Appalachians. To begin the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to remain from the Hudson and James Bay region south across the Great Lakes and into the eastern Conus while the western Ridge is expected to have retrograded further west and amplified north near the west coast of the Conus.
340 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds persisting mainly to the east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows main trough to the northeast of the region, with strong northwest flow from southwest Canada into the Northern Plains. Much cooler and dry air will settle over the area for today, with highs mostly in the 70s. High pressure will shift south and east of the region Friday, allowing the frontal boundary to the southwest to move back into the area as a warm front.
432 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The cold front dropped southward along the eastern edge of the Big Horn Range earlier this evening, and has wrapped back west and is pushing up the Wind River Basin. High pressure dominates the region otherwise, with south WY seeing temperatures similar to yesterday in the low to mid 80s, while the cold front brings temperatures north of the Divide down about 5 degrees from yesterday.
Northwest flow aloft streaming across the Plains region while the mid level ridge edges into the western plains region. This drier airmass behind the boundary drops dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees throughout the day, while temps rise to the low and middle 80s. Southerly flow returns to central KS by Friday afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east, advecting warmer temps to the upper 80s.
321 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The upper level ridge will be centered over Nevada today with a west/northwesterly flow aloft in the mid and upper levels. A cold front is racing southward through Greeley and into the Denver area 3-330 am. This will be a dry cold front, so main impact will be cooler temperatures. There could be some stronger gusts in the foothills this morning, but those should weaken as the cold front moves through. For Friday and this weekend, the strong upper level high will remain over the southwest part of the country. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s Friday across northeast Colorado.
413 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Northwest flow aloft streaming across the Plains region while the mid level ridge edges into the western plains region. This drier airmass behind the boundary drops dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees throughout the day, while temps rise to the low and middle 80s. Southerly flow returns to central KS by Friday afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east, advecting warmer temps to the upper 80s.
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Weak high pressure builds today and tonight while an occluded front stalls along the coast. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
Dangerously hot temperatures will return to much of the region over Labor Day weekend as high pressure sprawls across the western states.
350 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Northeast Montana is now behind the cold front that arrived overnight.
Otherwise, cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma/ northwest Arkansas by late evening with boundary pushing to near I-40 by 12Z Friday. A weak cold front will approach the area from the north this evening. The aforementioned cold front will continue to push southward through the morning hours Friday before eventually slowing and stalling near I-40.
High pressure ridge axis was draped across north Florida.
722 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front. RAP/HREF analyses for later today point to the best CAPE near the Mason-Dixon Line and in the ridges.
Temperatures will run a couple of degrees cooler today with readings in the 80s areawide, due to clouds and rain. The upper low will finally be absorbed into the main trough on Friday. As it does, a cold front will descend into the Mid-South during the day on Friday. The front will quickly sink south as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
High pressure will build over the area for the Labor Day weekend. We will be anticipating scattered deep convection over areas west of the Blue Ridge in the early afternoon. If anything, the highest risk area would be north and central Maryland. Warm and moist air advection will also bring high temperatures to the low 90s, mainly in the valleys and areas east of the Blue Ridge. Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to near a 100 over areas east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures will reach the 90s today for the lower valleys while mountain towns will reach the high 70s/low 80s. The area of high pressure will remain centered over the Great Basin and as subsidence continues, temperatures will remain hot.
VFR otherwise will dominate today and tonight with building upper level high pressure and dry, subsident airmass aloft. For today and tonight, a dry and subsident airmass will dominate as the upper level low pressure system over north Texas edges slowly southward. Upper level high pressure over the western Great Basin will expand eastward in response with heights rebuilding across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Otherwise, the building upper heights will lead to warmer temperatures today several degrees above normal followed by another quiet and mild night tonight. Affects of an upper high building to our west. Anther direct result of the upper high building is a return to warmer temperatures starting Friday.
Northwesterly flow aloft continues as the region remains between troughing across the Great Lakes and upper ridging across the western CONUS. A surface cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning with gusty northwest winds to around 35 mph ushering much drier dewpoints in the mid 40s into the area.
907 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front. RAP/HREF analyses for later today point to the best CAPE near the Mason-Dixon Line and in the ridges.
Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s. Deep layer ridging will dominate today, helping to suppress convection. Highs today will reach into the mid 90s (above normal) with heat indices in the low to mid 100s. Low temperatures will also be above normal with the forecast lows for tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Dangerous conditions due to heat exposure will be possible in the lower elevations. An unseasonably strong high pressure system was in the process of strengthening over the southwestern United States during the morning hours.
Western Nebraska lies in the wake of a cold front, which passed through the forecast area overnight. Clear skies continue as winds transition to southerly on the backside of the high. Despite generally light winds that would favor efficient boundary layer decoupling and very cool conditions, strong WAA returns ahead of a warm front and should keep the big temp drops to a minimum. The warm front bisects the forecast area during the day. Blended in warmer guidance to give max temps in the upper 80s north to lower 90s south.
410 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The cold front is continuing to work through the area this morning, leaving northwesterly winds in its wake. Temperatures today in the 70s will be below climatological averages, thanks to the northwesterly flow and much cooler temperatures at 850mb and 925mb.
350 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Recent cold frontal passage through the overnight has brought in some breezy reports across the region coupled with pockets of low visibility from recent smoke/haze from recent fires up in MT. Otherwise a cooler day across the region with near-normal highs in the mid to upper 70s west of the Laramie range and up to the mid 80s eastward with no precipitation expected.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 90 66 86 / 20 10 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 87 63 83 / 30 30 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 87 62 83 / 40 30 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 67 83 58 81 / 60 50 40 20 0.
High pressure aloft will expand east across the Great Basin through the end of the week. This high pressure will maintain dry conditions and bring summer-like temperatures back to all of Utah through the upcoming weekend.
505 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds persisting mainly to the east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows main trough to the northeast of the region, with strong northwest flow from southwest Canada into the Northern Plains. Much cooler and dry air will settle over the area for today, with highs mostly in the 70s. High pressure will shift south and east of the region Friday, allowing the frontal boundary to the southwest to move back into the area as a warm front.
Temps at this hour varied quite a bit, with some 70s in the lower Ark rvr valley and immediately along the mtns/plains interface, while lower 50s were noted over N El Paso county.
405 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft continues as the region remains between troughing across the Great Lakes and upper ridging across the western CONUS. A surface cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning with gusty northwest winds to around 35 mph ushering much drier dewpoints in the mid 40s into the area.
640 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Mainly dry the next few days, but can't totally rule out a brief sprinkle as a cold front passes through.
641 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Dry and hot conditions expected through Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. A cold front will move south through the area Friday night and become stationary south of the area.
220 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020 (Issued 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2020) Tonight through Friday night: Cold front shifting off to the east. A weak trough, tightening baroclinic zone and a potential weak wave riding through will at least increase clouds.
A cold front will bring slightly cooler and drier air for a pleasant Labor Day weekend. The mid level ridge remains just to our south and east though at the surface a cool front will approach from the northwest.
1156 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds persisting mainly to the east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows main trough to the northeast of the region, with strong northwest flow from southwest Canada into the Northern Plains. Much cooler and dry air will settle over the area for today, with highs mostly in the 70s. High pressure will shift south and east of the region Friday, allowing the frontal boundary to the southwest to move back into the area as a warm front.
346 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 Cold front moves through tonight with minimal chances for precipitation. High pressure builds on Friday and lasts through the weekend, keeping the forecast dry with below seasonal temperatures to start.
With a weakening gradient overnight as surface ridging builds across the region, winds will drop off to nearly calm by mid evening. High pressure drifts off to the east on Friday, and with warm air advection temperatures will moderate a good bit as readings climb back into the 80s. Although winds are not expected to be especially breezy in the afternoon, the warmer temperatures will result in afternoon dew points near 30 percent, so elevated fire danger will again be a concern.
Deep layer ridging will continue to cause subsidence across ECFL.
/This Afternoon/ Convection continues late this morning primarily across the Wrn sections of E TX, along a NE to SW oriented upper trough extending from the TX Hill Country NE into AR into the OH valley. In fact, the morning water vapor imagery indicates the tail end of this trough beginning to cut off over the Hill Country, and is progged to linger over the region over at least the next couple of days.
Warm temperatures again today as the ridge continues to build over the region.
An impressive anticyclone for any time of year, but especially September, is in the process of strengthening across the western Great Basin and northern California this morning.