Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS BACK NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ARKANSAS BORDER. CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO CLEAR OUT VERY FAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER.
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 AREA OBS AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW AL AND CENTRAL TN. THE HAIL THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOK FORWARD TO THE COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 39 INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT TERM COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN I-30 AND I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO REDEVELOP NORTH OF I-20 ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR. /ISSUED 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THIS MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO NEAR A CAMDEN TO TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO MOUNT PLEASANT AND MINEOLA TEXAS LINE. ALSO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LESS RAINFALL AROUND AND AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW MORE SUN TO PEAK THROUGH.
318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID- 60S.
125 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID-STATE. COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES CURRENTLY. MAIN LOBE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS IT DOES SO, A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015 High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back side of a Great Lakes upper trough.
APPEARS AS THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH.
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING HAS BROUGHT AN END TO MOIST CONVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES. THE LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE PLAINS. THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS TODAY IS A SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVERHEAD. BY 9PM THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A BIT MORE SNOWFALL BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS OVER. AREAS NEAR AND AROUND CRAIG AND MEEKER AS WELL AS GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAGLE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
/ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ EXPECT A SUPER WET ARKLATEX ALL WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OK/TX PNHDL MEETS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW INLAND OVER SW MEXICO.
731 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 EXPECT A SUPER WET ARKLATEX ALL WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OK/TX PNHDL MEETS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW INLAND OVER SW MEXICO.
100 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS.
THEN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 00Z PIT/ILN SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
1024 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
701 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS.
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS LATE TNT AND SAT AM ACROSS SRN WI. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES THEN EXPECTED SAT NT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUN. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL SAT AM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LINGERING SHRA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
931 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 NORTH AND EAST FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH AND UP THE EAST COAST. DRYING ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS SUPPRESSED MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
Cold front, currently located over far NW Osage county, will continue pushing south overnight with boundary moving to near a MLC/FYV line by Saturday morning. Additional shower/thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of front overnight with the highest rainfall totals expected across far Southeast Oklahoma.
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
High pressure off the Eastern Seaboard will continue to move out into the Atlantic overnight. Otherwise, should be a fairly quiet night with lows in the low to mid 60s.
19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough lifting northeast towards MN while an upper level trough axis remains stretched back to the southwest into southern AZ. At the surface, the cold front is approaching KCNK with the front having already moves through Great Bend and Smith Center. Still think the lift from the front is going to have to overcome general subsidence in the wake of the upper trough lifting northeast and the left entrance region of the upper jet streak.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND NOT ALLOWING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
700 MB TROUGH AXIS WAS OFF TO OUR WEST AND THERE WAS A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (THE 12Z PW VALUE AT KOAX WAS 1. TSTMS NOTED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLD STORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THAT. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH.
1057 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
Further S, precip over AR shud move newd, impacting sern portions of the CWA, mainly late tonight as the upper trof approaches and ULJ intensifies over the area. Trended twd cooler temps across wrn portions of the CWA where the cdfnt will arrive sooner and allow temps to fall further despite cloud cover. Further E, continued trend twd warmer guidance. As the trof pulls ewd, the fnt shud continue to push swd, keeping the bulk of the precip S of the CWA. AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs to persist early on ahead of cold front, with cigs eventually dropping to MVFR as front gets closer. Specifics for KSTL: A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs to persist early on ahead of cold front, with cigs eventually dropping to MVFR as front gets closer.
1236 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT.
Scattered to broken low/mid clouds over most of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening will continue to be common ahead of a cold front expected to move through overnight tonight. /issued / A cold front will move south across the area tonight.
Tricky forecast for the next 12 hours as a strong cold front approaches from the north.
746 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE IS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROF SITTING BACK TO THE WEST.
Showers and isolated thunder will remain possoble across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Cold front, currently located over far NW Osage county, will continue pushing south overnight with boundary moving to near a MLC/FYV line by Saturday morning. Additional shower/thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of front overnight with the highest rainfall totals expected across far Southeast Oklahoma.
925 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
722 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AREA OF SHOWERS TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS. MAIN WESTERN US TROF WILL DIG SE TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Further S, precip over AR shud move newd, impacting sern portions of the CWA, mainly late tonight as the upper trof approaches and ULJ intensifies over the area. Trended twd cooler temps across wrn portions of the CWA where the cdfnt will arrive sooner and allow temps to fall further despite cloud cover. Further E, continued trend twd warmer guidance. As the trof pulls ewd, the fnt shud continue to push swd, keeping the bulk of the precip S of the CWA. AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Cold front beginning to make progress across region. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front beginning to make progress across region.
945 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC IS NOSING DOWN THE EASRTERN SEABOARD.
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND CAA BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPANDING FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA AND COMBINE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATES A CONTINUING ROBUST FLOW FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRYING AROUND 800 MB.
SOME HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
435 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 High pressure will stretch across the Inland Northwest through the weekend with mild temperatures and occasional high cloudiness. A weak warm front will sweep through the region late Saturday with a few mountain showers possible, although most places will remain dry.
THEN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
622 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 High pressure will stretch across the Inland Northwest through the weekend with mild temperatures and occasional high cloudiness. A weak warm front will sweep through the region late Saturday with a few mountain showers possible, although most places will remain dry.
AS REMAINING RAINFALL IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLEARING SKIES APPROACHING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES MODEST RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDING INTO THE MIDWEST. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
These winds combined with clouds to keep mild lows in the lower 60s, with upper 50s by Galesburg. Upper trof forecast to shift across the region Saturday will push the main threat for rain into east and southeast Illinois by Saturday afternoon. Models in good agreement with that scenario with the higher POPs shifting into east central and southeast Illinois during the afternoon with lingering low chance POPs over the far southeast Saturday evening as a secondary wave travels up the boundary.
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE PLAINS. THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS TODAY IS A SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVERHEAD. BY 9PM THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A BIT MORE SNOWFALL BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS OVER. AREAS NEAR AND AROUND CRAIG AND MEEKER AS WELL AS GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAGLE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
1046 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENTLY - A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A CAP AROUND 700 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
A cold front will move through the area during the morning hours, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts. (Saturday night through Friday) Much lighter rainfall amounts expected Saturday night behind the cold front.
BY LATE SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE FROM MEXICO, INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE SAME TIME, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW COMING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT OUR NORTHEAST WIND IN PLACE WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST.
A cold front will move through the area Saturday morning, resulting in north winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts. A cold front will move through the area during the morning hours, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts. (Saturday night through Friday) Much lighter rainfall amounts expected Saturday night behind the cold front.
The cold front is a little slower than what was forecast yesterday at this time and is currently moving through eastern Nebraska and central Kansas. Cooler temperatures, though actually closer to normal, are expected through the weekend.
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS.
1051 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Deepening low pressure traveling from the upper Midwest to southeast Canada during the short term will drag a cold front towards us tonight, through southern Indiana and central Kentucky Saturday afternoon and evening, and off to our southeast late Saturday night. Saturday night will be a little cooler behind the front with lows generally in the lower and middle 50s.
1152 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
1017 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
710 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KDHT TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z BUT WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AS WE HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TIME.
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING PERIOD WHEN LEAD TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH AREA. A SECOND ENHANCED PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/SHRAS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO AREA. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A DEEP WARM SECTOR THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SODAK AND NEBRASKA. THE THETA E RIDGE FORECASTED TO SLAM INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK OF A RESURGENT LOW LEVEL JET.
956 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
1234 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO KANSAS. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LOW WEST OF CA COMES ONSHORE AND STARTS AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MOVEMENT OF WESTERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NORTHWARD ACROSS WY. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WEST WITH WEAK SHEAR AXIS MOVING AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE.
1148 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THIS MORNING GOT OFF TO A WARMER START THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES. AND 15Z OBS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S.
The risk for scattered showers and storms will persist Thursday into Thursday night along a slowly advancing warm front.
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THIS TREND PERSISTS.
944 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.
719 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND A REFRESHING AIRMASS CHANGE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.
THIS WAVE WILL LARGELY WASH OUT THIS EVENING WITH PART OF IT'S ENERGY BEING PULLED INTO THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO SEE THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES.
THE MARINE LAYER IS 2200 FEET DEEP AND LIKE LAST NIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE LIFT PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING TROF.
WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AT KMVN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED AS IT STALLS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI.
THERE IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER TX HELPS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING WHILE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING REMAINS AS WELL.
WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION.
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A SWATH OF DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DRYING SHOULD NOT BE THAT QUICK FOR THE INTERIOR TODAY SO THE HIGHER AFTERNOON POP FOR THE INTERIOR STILL LOOKS GOOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS ADVECTED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE LOW IS ADVERTISED TO NUDGE EASTWARD A BIT TODAY AND A SUBTLE PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERTS.
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVER CA. UNDER A WARMER AIRMASS.
930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND A REFRESHING AIRMASS.
SOME COMPITITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD TODAY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AND A FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND MODELS HAVE THE FORECASTED HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST.
704 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE WIND AND TEMP TRENDS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF BTV WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH H850 BOUNDARY ALOFT SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN. EURO HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER THE PAST 3 MODELS RUNS WITH THE GEM/GFS/NAM ALL BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND SFC WARM FRONT NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE EURO WEAKENS THURSDAYS WAVE.
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 93-95 DEGREE RANGE INLAND WITH THE DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
1003 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CA COAST IS SHARPENING THE BUILD-UP OF UPPER RIDGING OVER NRN MEXICO INTO TX. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CURVE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US.
THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AGAIN TODAY.