Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
404 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure tonight and Friday. A warm front will produce considerable mid to high clouds across the region tonight, making low temperatures a bit tricky. The warm frontal clouds will persist on Friday over central and northern portions of the forecast area. Dry air in the low levels should help prevent precipitation from reaching the ground, but can't rule out a few flakes making it to the ground across the northern counties.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad trough over the eastern half of the country with westerly flow over Texas. A second trough extended over western Mexico.
406 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will skirt across the area over the next 24 hours, providing mostly clear skies and light winds.
1146 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure traveling across Kentucky will provide dry weather today. Snow developing along a warm front near Lake Erie may affect northern locations on Friday.
1004 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Warmer today with highs in the 50s and low 60s. This is in response to a 500mb short wave traversing the parent broad trough.
Orographic snow showers continue along the Continental Divide on Friday and will potentially expand into the Flat Tops as the polar jet sags further south and begins to usher our next upper level trough into our region. Expect one more day of well above seasonal temperatures ahead of the next cold front which will be on our doorstep Friday evening. Pre-frontal winds Friday afternoon will be breezy with gusts reaching 30 to maybe even 40 mph at times over the higher terrain.
The exception will be the coast which is forecast to be a bit cooler today.
Aloft a broad upper trof over much of the eastern conus lifts north through tonight leading to a more zonal flow across the northern Gulf states later today and tonight. With this pattern deep moisture in the lower levels of the boundary layer, mostly in the form of low status, shifts south towards the coast today but remains just offshore and along the immediate coast through this evening then begins to shift inland again early Fri morning. Highs today will climb to near seasonal levels ranging from the lower to middle 60s over the northern half of the forecast area and the middle 60s southward to the immediate coast.
436 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 Dry high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through tonight. Moisture will increase again Friday ahead of a warm front.
Despite the high clouds, the warmest temperatures of the week will be enjoyed this afternoon. A strong but dry arctic cold front will arrive near I-70 approximately 3 AM, US 50 around sunrise, and through the remainder of SW KS by 9 AM. A sharp arctic cold front will be pushing south Friday morning, reaching southwest Kansas as early as daybreak. The official grids will reflect near steady temperatures, but in all likelihood we will probably see falling temperatures through much of the day, well down into the lower to mid 20s by afternoon (perhaps teens up at Hays).
Moisture will be surging north ahead of a frontal wave emerging out of the Lower Mississippi Valley early in the period.
1233 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will move across the Upper Ohio Valley today, then move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will slide slowly east today and will be centered over Ohio by this evening. All snow will come to an end this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will shift east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. Snow will taper off Friday night as the first wave of low pressure departs across the eastern Great Lakes.
Large and broad upper trough over the eastern U. this afternoon to move into the W Atlantic Friday as upper ridge from the NE Carib begins to nudge northward. Vort max that push surface cold front into the area is becoming quite sheared as upper support moves out of the region leaving frontal boundary to stall and wash out over the FL Peninsula tonight into Fri. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley this afternoon to slide eastward with low level flow veering NEward overnight. Broad upper level trough across most of the U. starts the period with a short wave trough digging into Washington State.
Mild conditions are expected on Friday as the cold front begins to push into the region from the north and west. Will likely have a decent spread of temperatures from Northwest to southeast, with highs around 50 in the far northwest to perhaps the lower 60s ahead of the front in south central Missouri. Lack of cloud ice will preclude much if any frozen precipitation, but lift through the saturated column will likely lead to drizzle/freezing drizzle, depending on surface temperatures. Another consideration will be how the warmer temperatures leading up to the onset of precipitation will affect road temperatures/terrestrial objects and how quickly those road temperatures will fall. Forecast temperatures after 06Z will range from the lower to middle 20s over central Missouri and cooling to near 30 across south central Missouri.
340 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure overhead tonight shifts offshore Friday morning. High pressure will slide from the central Appalachians to off the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday morning. A warm front lifts northward across the Ohio Valley-Central Appalachians Friday but will be rain-free with only some mid-high clouds arriving across the northern half of our forecast area. Surface wind flow turns southerly but some residual coolness from the high offshore may limit temp rises, though highs will still be around 5 degrees above normal. Look for highs from the mid to upper 40s along the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys, to lower to mid 50s elsewhere. A cold front is expected to move into, and then stall over the region during the weekend.
/issued 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018/ Warmer today with highs in the 50s and low 60s. This is in response to a 500mb short wave traversing the parent broad trough.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night):Mid-level low pressure system continues to sit over Baja California with broad troughing over the eastern U. In the low levels, southerly winds are bringing warm, moist air over a much cooler air mass at the surface. Therefore, overcast skies and patchy drizzle will continue this afternoon and tonight with the best chances of accumulation being along the coast and over the marine areas with coastal troughing expected to strengthen. Overcast skies will continue, but temperatures should rise into the upper 60s as surface winds advect warmer air out of the southeast.
240 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 (Tonight and Friday) Warmer conditions have returned to West Central Texas this afternoon, with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
A cold front will push through tonight through Monday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
555 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Warm and humid conditions expected overnight in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler temperatures.
Winds should drop off significantly once the mixing decreases early this evening as the low level forcing for the winds is getting out of the state. With the mountaintop winds still fairly strong, the moisture should create a few inches of orographic snow on the ridges. Still some weak mid level subsidence around through 06z Monday night, then weak ascent ahead of the next approaching trough.
440 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 High pressure will move east tonight. Low pressure approaching from the west will lift a warm front across the region later Monday and Monday night.
08 Strong gusty winds possible today ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain chances remain low through this afternoon as the cold front moves through.
A cold front will bring widespread precipitation on Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Will lean more toward a slower solution since the path of the upper level low is more toward the north on Monday and the trough axis will really not show much of an easterly swing until Monday afternoon.
Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will progress northeast across the area early this morning ahead of the ejecting trough. Cold air aloft underneath upper low along with continued upper forcing should allow for scattered showers redeveloping across eastern half of Kansas this afternoon, although the threat for heavy convective rainfall is over. Warmer, windy and sunny conditions are expected Monday, with highs reaching the 60s.
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 (Tonight and Monday) Look for cooler temperatures to continue tonight, with a warming trend beginning tomorrow. (Monday Night through Sunday) Much warmer morning lows are expected Monday with temperatures in the mid 50s.
/issued 455 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low centered over western OK. A downstream plume of tropical moisture extended north through the lower and middle MS River Vally. Eventually, expected a well-defined back side of the storms to form as the midlevel trof axis rotates through.
High pressure aloft will bring mostly clear skies, dry conditions and a warming trend through the upcoming week. Clear skies continue this afternoon for much of Arizona as a rather large and mature low pressure system is spinning its way across the Central Plains, bringing severe weather to parts of the southeast.
Deep upper level low continues to impact the region this morning as it moves slowly east across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
247 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Popcorn showers and storms this evening as ripples in the flow move northeast on the back side of the mid level ridge, tapping available low level instability. Warm and humid overnight in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler temperatures.
Low pressure will approach from the southwest tonight, moving through Wisconsin just to the northwest of the forecast area on Monday.
321 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A cooler, cloudy and showery day expected on Monday. Currently, the western edge of a high pressure ridge axis extended across southern Ontario, northern Minnesota, and into northeastern North Dakota. Meanwhile another low pressure center was over southern Alberta with a trough extending south across eastern Montana/Wyoming. Winds over western ND had become southerly today in response to the western low/trough. Strong gusty northwest winds will develop behind the low/trough, but the strongest winds should be west and south of our area.
Question is intensity of the snow as considerable moisture may get blocked from moving north around the upper low due to storms in the mid/lower Mississippi valley.
but winds throughout the lower and mid levels are around 40 kts or stronger. with gusts of around 50 mph possible in the higher elevations. especially with the higher wind gusts. By Monday night, the cold front will be pushing east of the area, and dry, more seasonable weather will be returning.
The only minor concern will be an upper level disturbance forecast to push across eastern Wyoming on Monday as some jet energy digs southward across the high plains.
A short wave riding over the offshore long wave ridge is now pushing a weak front through the Medford CWA. This front will wash out later today as the upper level support exits the area and the offshore long wave ridge builds again. Another short wave riding over the ridge will push a front onshore Monday afternoon and evening.
311 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Classic mid latitude cyclone over ern KS this afternoon, with well developed wrap around band/trowal exiting ern CO as of 20z. Weak trough then pushes into the central Rockies toward Mon morning, spreading high clouds across the state, along with a few snow showers over the peaks of the central mountains, especially after midnight. Wly surface wind, increasing clouds and modest warming aloft should keep temps from falling much below freezing over the plains, though snow covered areas will likely hang out around 32f for much of the night.
305 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Unseasonably strong and textbook cyclone centered over south- central KS was slowly pulling away from the TX South Plains this afternoon, but not after subjecting portions of our N-NE zones to frequent high winds with gusts measured as high as 65 mph. With the departure of the LLJ underway, will let the high wind warning expire at 4 PM and maintain a wind advisory through 8 PM for all but our SW and far western counties.
407 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will move across the area late tonight into Monday morning. Much cooler air will move in behind this system with below normal temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Wet weather will return during the latter part of the week as low pressure slowly tracks across the Tennessee Valley. New convection will develop along a strong cold front and move into the forecast area late tonight, likely after 2 am. Line of showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing at the beginning of the period but exiting the area by mid morning as a cold front moves east. A short wave rotating around an upper low in the Great Lakes will swing across the region Monday night.
315 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A warm front will remain south of the region tonight and Monday and will be followed by an occluded front Monday night.
404 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 The closed upper low over southern and eastern Kansas will continue to move away from the forecast area tonight. Cut back highs Monday from MOS guidance numbers as snowpack will result in much cooler temps mainly across the northwest half of the forecast area.
239 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
Drier and cooler conditions will continue to filter into S TX through the morning hours with skies clearing from west to east. Per MSAS analysis, another surge of high pressure will build into the area later this morning, however winds should not be nearly as strong as what was seen earlier behind the frontal bdry.
257 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Deep upper cyclone was spinning along the KS/OK border with isolated cold-core showers impacting parts of northeast OK. This activity will gradually diminish by early evening as the upper low pulls away. Warmer conditions expected into Monday.
The highest winds are expected at GAG, WWR, HBR, and CSM where gusts could briefly exceed 40 to 45 kt.
Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side while winds increase. A bigger improvement in weather conditions will be noted Monday as the upper low lifts off to the northeast.
Much more stable air behind the convective line, and even the showers ahead of the cold front near the Mississippi River are pretty lackluster. A few of the short term models such as the HRRR have indicated 2 waves of precip; one being this initial line currently approaching the I-65 corridor and the second band of precip closer to the cold front that will pass through the area this evening and early overnight. NVA isnt too strong behind the front, so clouds may stick around a bit longer as the upper low spins northward towards the Great Lakes.
Along the backside of deepening cyclone near Wichita, a strong northerly LLJ of around 50 knots at 850mb was arcing cyclonically from Liberal, KS down to Floydada. /issued 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Unseasonably strong upper level low pressure over the eastern Texas Panhandle this morning will move into southeast Kansas later today, deepening by another 100 meters at the 500 millibar level.
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
1119 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Upper level analysis has large closed low over the central and southern Plains with weak ridging over the great basin area. Skies are mostly clear across much of the northern Plains, with the exception of the cloud shield on the northern end of the upper low across eastern South Dakota. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Dakotas. As the upper low/trof shift east of the area, fast northwest flow will take over across the northern Plains.
A short wave riding over the offshore long wave ridge pushed a weak front onshore earlier today. Another short wave riding over the ridge will push a front onshore Monday afternoon and evening.
326 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A warm front will remain south of the region tonight and Monday and will be followed by an occluded front Monday night.
Strong mid level low pressure is currently located over the TX panhandle and is forecasted to lift northeastward directly over the area tonight. At the surface there was a low pressure was located in far northeast OK, and it is forecasted to drift into central KS slightly deepening in the process as the main low lifts out. An additional half to one inch of rain is expected across the area by sunrise tomorrow morning with the highest amounts in north central KS within the trowal. Monday will start cool and cloudy with some isolated showers in far NE Kansas in the early morning given the proximity of the low. These winds will decrease throughout the afternoon as the low pull further NE and ridging begins to build along the Front Range.
Scattered showers and cool temperature will continue through the evening hours behind a passing cold front. There will be a brief pause and some clearing later tonight through mid morning Monday before the next weather system and cold front moves across the region. Increasing clouds, scattered to numerous showers and continued below normal temps in the lower to mid 50s will occur Monday.
257 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Afternoon water vapor loop showed the intense low pressure system spinning over the south central Plains. Visible images detected the western edge of the higher clouds over the eastern NE panhandle, with scattered mid and high clouds spreading southeast across the western 2/3 of WY. Temperatures rebounded quickly from sub-freezing morning lows to the 40s and 50s.
330 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 The 500 mb upper low was over south central Kansas at 18z. The radar mosiac was showing showers near the low center expanding diurnally early this afternoon. This shower activity should move through northeast Kansas late this and evening along with the upper low. These light westerly winds combined with generally clear skies will keep low temperatures Monday night in the low/mid 40s.
Therefore, the temp drop this evening may be delayed some, which ended up bringing snow totals down a tad outside of the higher terrain features. Initially, storm total snow grids seemed a bit on the low side over the Coteau, so fudged snow ratios a bit higher to get the desired results of heavier accums.
345 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cold front about to cross the Atchafalaya with a wrly low-level flow and 40s/50s dewpoints in place across the forecast area. Dry weather looks on tap for the early part of the work week as forecast soundings indicate good drying continuing through tonight as wrly winds dominate through the column thanks to high pressure moving from srn TX to the nrn Gulf. Looking for a cooler than normal night tonight with lows in the 50s (possibly upper 40s TX Lakes region) all but the immediate coastline. but the dry column will allow for a good warmup tomorrow with maxes running in the lower 80s most of the area.
314 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Region will remain in cool northwesterly flow the next couple of days as troughiness encompasses the eastern 2/3rds of the US and weak ridging builds over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Many locations as of 3pm are showing temps about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with forecast guidance for low temps tonight indicating temps 10 degrees warmer in many spots than last night thanks to the expected cloud cover.
High pressure will gradually move over the region during the upcoming week bringing a significant warming trend to the area. Dry northwest flow has set up over the region ahead of a strong ridge, which should move inland mid-week and increase daily highs and lows. Increasing temperatures can be expected over the next few days as ridging builds into the area.
Water vapor imagery over night showed the upper low crossing the Panhandles and has the eastern Texas Panhandle in the dry slot. The central and western parts of the area are currently seeing snowfall from the backside of the low and the OK Panhandle will see the greatest amount of new snowfall today as they will be in it the longest. After we get past this system and the freezing temps overnight for the northwestern third of the area, things will warm up and dry out.
Lows by Monday morning will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s, with upper 30s possible in low lying areas and river valleys.
401 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a maturing cyclone located over northwestern Oklahoma, just east of the panhandle. A broad area of deformation precipitation had developed this afternoon on the northern and northwestern periphery of the low and was backing into the forecast area from the east. Ending of precipitation in association with the upper level low, as well as snow accumulations for tonight are the main forecast concerns.
After that, it's a couple of recovery days for much of the remainder of the short term, with much cooler air sweeping down on the back side of the Low for Monday-Monday night in particular. There is an elevated warm front displaced maybe 25-50 miles to the north, where some overrunning energy could pop a few showers/storms.
Upper low, located over east central New Mexico at 00z Sunday, will lift northeast into central Kansas by early this afternoon. Additional accumulations of 10 to 14 inches is not out of the question along the mid level deformation zone/TROWAL axis ahead of this upper low from roughly Johnson to Garden City to around Scott City. Further east temperatures will be warmer but still 30 to 35 degree lows still will be possible.
However, one more round of light precipitation is expected this evening into tonight as the low, which will now have become stacked, will finally shift eastward moving across northern Missouri. Light wrap around showers will be possible as this low move through the area with the higher POPs across northern Missouri.
Short wave trough riding atop the upper ridging in EPAC will weaken as it pushes through the PacNW and into the Great Basin tonight.
130 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Upper low over OK this morning will move NE with upper ridge building in from west.
The powerful upper low is located across the Southern Plains with 40-50 kt of westerly mid level flow, much of this mixing down to the surface. The winds are expected to diminish later this evening as the upper low moves off to the northeast and the current wind advisory will be allowed to expire. There is some remnant mid level cloud cover associated with moisture wrapping around the back side of the upper low. Clouds are expected to thin later tonight with the departure of the upper low. It will be a cool night across North Texas with lows dropping into the lower 40s in many areas. Tomorrow looks like a nice day across the region with light southerly flow returning and warmer temperatures expected under sunny skies.
In addition, weak band of showers and thunderstorms has developed in between the line and the cold front, which is just entering the west edge of the CWA. Lower dew points will bring much cooler overnight temperatures the next two nights, 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the last couple nights.