Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight and Wednesday: Patchy dense fog formed this morning under high pressure providing clear skies and light winds, with temperatures dropping into the 20s most areas. Light southerly winds will return to our area tonight as high pressure slides east. Thus mainly cloudy skies are forecast and will help to keep lows near or above freezing most areas, but also trim highs a bit on Wednesday. Expect temperatures to remain at or above freezing where drizzle occurs, so the threat of freezing drizzle causing any impacts will be low.
158 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A couple more days of very cool weather is on tap, with morning lows below freezing. The northern extent would have implications as to whether or not the southeast CWA sees temperatures below freezing tonight. Sprawling high pressure will continue to dominate our weather the remainder of the week, only slowly pushing east.
Good news is that if drzl is an issue, temps should remain mostly above freezing, and the latest blend trended a few deg warmer. The main impact looks to be breezy S winds ahead of a weak cold front. Gusts of 25-35 MPH will take an edge off of the warmer temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Luckily, the breezy conditions look to be short-lived as even stronger ridging builds in for the weekend. If drizzle occurs, we should remain warm enough to preclude any freezing drizzle.
Expect dry but cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Residual snow showers are expected to persist into Wednesday for areas north of I 80, but these will not be problematic as mid level cold advection will neutralize upon trough passage. Temperatures are expected to climb to near, or slightly above average by the start of the new week as an upper trough moves out of the Midwest and initiates warm advection on its van.
However, as subsidence and drying associated with the high pressure ridge to the west increases there will be little chance for this activity to linger past noon.
Warmer and drier for Wednesday with 700mb temperatures climbing above 0C after 18Z and even up to +3C by Wednesday evening.
233 PM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A low-amplitude trough across the forecast area early this afternoon will continue to shift away from the area early tonight. In wake of this feature, a strong mid to upper-level ridge will be in place Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday look to be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today in most places.
1042 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (Issued 308 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021) Today through Wednesday Night: Highly amplified flow across North America will keep the Great Lakes region beneath deep troughing.
330 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Much cooler temperatures should be expected across the Mid South for the rest of the week as a front is expected to move across the region late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler and much drier will quickly move into the region and should erode the northern extent of the rainfall.
Cronce (Issued 308 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021) Today through Wednesday Night: Highly amplified flow across North America will keep the Great Lakes region beneath deep troughing.
316 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Despite the continued cooler than normal conditions, a mostly sunny sky coupled with light winds has brought a subtly milder afternoon than yesterday. There is not expected to be ice introduction into the saturated layer nor are any model solutions showing wet bulb temps dropping below freezing coinciding with precipitation, so am not expecting any snow/ice related impacts.
High pressure will build in for Wednesday with drier weather and cooler temperatures. Many of those locations have switched over to rain, except for the highest elevations/locations. Otherwise, precipitation will continue to taper off this afternoon/early evening, with dry conditions overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. Much cooler air filtering in from the north will allow for a widespread freeze tonight, and a freeze warning has been issued for Wednesday morning for all locations still in the growing season.
Upper trough and rain moved rapidly east of our area overnight and was already in Wyoming and Colorado this morning. Upper level ridge is now coming in from the west with warm-frontal clouds ahead of it.
This feature will bring in an expanse of cloud cover into the area from the north and west as well as usher in a cooler air mass.
Lastly, as the region remains on the eastern side of high pressure centered over the central plains, surface flow will continue to be out of the north and make way for seasonally cooler temperatures this afternoon and evening. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 52 43 52 40 / 0 20 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 52 41 52 36 / 0 10 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 37 52 39 52 35 / 0 10 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 37 50 31 / 10 10 30 40 20 TN.
123 PM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021 High pressure will build across the region, bringing clearer skies and warmer weather Wednesday through much of the weekend with minor changes from day to day. An area of high pressure to the south will start to nose its way into SoCal tomorrow through the end of the week. Clearer skies can be expected with warmer temperatures.
Keep in mind when looking at the high and low temperature forecast, that the clouds may cause the high temperatures to be cooler and lows to be a little warmer at times.
Kept the low POPs we have going in our northeastern tier in case a few showers do get going this afternoon, but overall not super impressed with precip chances. Lows should drop down into the low to mid 20s for the most part overnight. Tomorrow, the pattern starts to shift as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and heights increase. There should be some weak warm air advection and enough sunshine to get a bit warmer into the 40s tomorrow, but the true warm air will hold off until later in the week.
Temperatures will be similar to the previous night or maybe a bit cooler to the northwest if the cloud cover clears faster than expected. Guidance has suggested that while the upper levels will dry out, moisture may linger in the lowest 1km and provide shallow cloud cover or maybe even some fog through the day. However, by the evening and nighttime hours, skies should be relatively clear and allow for cooler nighttime lows near 30. Little has changed with this part of the forecast, aside from the model data coming into better agreement that the upper level ridge will intensify.
141 PM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021 High pressure will build back into the region today and Wednesday.
Synoptic scale mid to upper pattern across the United States includes a trough to the east and amplifying ridge to the west, putting us within a region of northwest flow aloft. We do have some weak warm air advection and some saturation occurring in the lowest levels, with limited lift and turbulent mixing in the stratus layer. The models that do advertise potential drizzle keeps it liquid for the most part, and do not see much of a risk of freezing drizzle with this scenario, as the sky cover and moisture increase should keep temps up enough to keep us from getting freezing temperatures.
As the high pressure that is giving us this seasonal weather continues to build in, our temps will moderate by Wednesday and continue to do so through the weekend.
Expect dry and mild conditions Wednesday under ridge aloft with temperatures expected to be well above normal with highs generally in the 40s mountains and 50s to near 60 in the Snake Plain.
116 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 116 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 As we remain on the western side of broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes, no impactful weather is expected through the next 48 hours. Clearing skies, slackening winds, and a resident dry airmass will allow for the coldest night of the year thus far with lows in the 20s areawide and near freezing along the Lake Michigan shore.
Dry conditions look to settle in over the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow as high pressure builds in.
Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure centered over Iowa providing cool northwesterly winds across central Indiana. High pressure will continue to build east into central Indiana through the short term.
Rains start to come in tmrw aftn/ eve timeframe as upr lvl trof swings mid lvl moisture down into the northwest gulf region.
High pressure will build back into the region today and Wednesday.
The northern extent would have implications as to whether or not the southeast CWA sees temperatures below freezing tonight. Sprawling high pressure will continue to dominate our weather the remainder of the week, only slowly pushing east.
939 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A weak trough over low pressure east of the area will shift east and weaken overnight. High pressure over the northern and central Plains states will wedge down the Appalachians overnight, and northeasterly winds will begin to increase over the local waters towards daybreak on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, and the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere, warmest at the beaches. Weak low pressure/trough over the ne Fl coastal waters will weaken tonight and shift east on Wednesday.
548 PM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A low-amplitude trough across the forecast area early this afternoon will continue to shift away from the area early tonight. In wake of this feature, a strong mid to upper-level ridge will be in place Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday look to be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today in most places.
/issued 609 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021/ Much cooler temperatures should be expected across the Mid South for the rest of the week as a front is expected to move across the region late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler and much drier will quickly move into the region and should erode the northern extent of the rainfall.
We're experiencing partly cloudy skies this evening as a warm front moves overhead in advance of an upper level ridge that will move over the region tomorrow. Lower Treasure Valley, Magic Valley, and the Long Valley have the highest probability of fog and stratus development Wednesday morning.
The cold front responsible for the unseasonably cool temperatures today has become quasi-stationary near I-10, with minimal southward progression expected until later tonight. Thus, locations south and west of the front this afternoon are still on target to top out in the upper 60s and 70s, even pushing the lower 80s along the Rio Grande. South of the front where temperatures continue to warm under mostly sunny skies, there will be potential for thunderstorms to develop, mainly in closer proximity to the higher terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains. The upper pattern will amplify tonight as a broad longwave trough deepens over the eastern CONUS while ridging strengthens over the West Coast, yielding a transition to northwesterly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
635 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A couple more days of very cool weather is on tap, with morning lows below freezing. The northern extent would have implications as to whether or not the southeast CWA sees temperatures below freezing tonight. Sprawling high pressure will continue to dominate our weather the remainder of the week, only slowly pushing east.
657 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse approaching the Southern High Plains with a broad upper trough encompassing the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure extends across the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley. This will increase Lee troughing across the area along with warm advection. ECMWF and GFS agree on upper ridging overspreading the area on Sat with a broad area of southwest flow aloft building-in for Sun.
As the trough approaches South Texas, a few showers may begin to develop, particularly over the eastern portions of the area. Models have begun to agree a little better on the timing of a cold front, with most models now indicate the front along the northern border of the CWA late Wednesday night.
A cold night is in store with readings already in the lower to middle 30s, and lows in the upper 20s to around 30 are still expected. Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure centered over Iowa providing cool northwesterly winds across central Indiana. High pressure will continue to build east into central Indiana through the short term.
Lows tonight should be some of the coldest we've had so far with values into the low 20s and some of the colder spots likely to fall into the teens. Stumpf (Issued 348 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021) Tonight through Wednesday Night: High pressure over the central Plains will slowly shift to the Ohio River Valley through Wednesday. Clear skies overnight and a strong inversion with the ridge moving overhead will allow temps to drop into the mid 20s for inland areas. Wednesday winds will not be as strong and gusty as the past couple of days, thanks to high pressure. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the lower to mid 40s.
Tomorrow will be slightly warmer in the 50s during the afternoon, but tomorrow night we are looking at widespread frost/freezing/below freezing temperatures (killing freeze) for a lot of the Panhandles. Not expecting heavy rates or any thunder thanks to a very stable layer in the lower levels and weak lapse rates aloft. Dewpoint depressions will be near zero for a lot of areas, and given the light winds we could see frost and/or freezing temperatures leading to potentially widespread killing of sensitive vegetation.
547 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Despite the continued cooler than normal conditions, a mostly sunny sky coupled with light winds has brought a subtly milder afternoon than yesterday. There is not expected to be ice introduction into the saturated layer nor are any model solutions showing wet bulb temps dropping below freezing coinciding with precipitation, so am not expecting any snow/ice related impacts.
That being said, LNP up in Wise county VA is already reporting freezing temps, and higher elevations elsewhere are probably seeing similar values. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 52 43 53 39 / 0 20 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 52 41 52 36 / 0 10 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 38 52 39 53 35 / 0 10 30 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 37 50 31 / 10 10 30 30 10 TN.
636 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 An upper level low in eastern Canada continues the cyclonic flow aloft into today. Otherwise, high temperatures remain in the 40s today and lows tonight will primarily be in the low to mid-20s, with some portions of central Wisconsin dipping under 20 degrees. The broad longwave trough at 500mb covers much of the central and eastern U.
Temperatures will fall into the low and mid 60s over the interior and even the inland portions of the coastal counties. Along the immediate coast, where persistent (albeit light) onshore flow persists, temperatures will hold in the lower 70s. We should see similar high temperatures to those of today putting most in the low 80s, possibly mid 80s in a few spots across the interior.
High pressure will redevelop and strengthen over the southwest United States tomorrow through the weekend, bringing clearer skies and a warming trend, with above normal high temperatures likely and a chance of hitting 90 degrees again. High temperatures today will be at or just above normal, with temps peaking in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts. This short wave will move east of our forecast area by tonight with high pressure redeveloping and strengthening over the desert southwest for the remainder of the week and this weekend.
553 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 116 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 As we remain on the western side of broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes, no impactful weather is expected through the next 48 hours. Clearing skies, slackening winds, and a resident dry airmass will allow for the coldest night of the year thus far with lows in the 20s areawide and near freezing along the Lake Michigan shore.
617 PM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021 High pressure should bring dry weather and warmer temperatures into Wednesday.
/issued 330 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021/ Much cooler temperatures should be expected across the Mid South for the rest of the week as a front is expected to move across the region late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler and much drier will quickly move into the region and should erode the northern extent of the rainfall.
Consistent northerly flow has encouraged CAA for the last several days, bringing much cooler air to the majority of the region. Heavy cloud cover has suppressed daytime heating, partly due to an inverted trough trying to push its way over from east Texas into our CWA. This trough, along with decent upper level divergence, has encouraged just enough lift and moisture for some stratiform rain to develop over east AR earlier this morning. Once the skies clear, significant radiational cooling and relatively light winds will support low temperatures plummeting into the low 30s, likely below freezing, in our northern counties by Thursday morning. High pressure will build in as the cloud cover clears out of the region by Thursday evening, encouraging overnight lows to continue dropping due to clear skies at night and light winds.
205 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 116 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 As we remain on the western side of broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes, no impactful weather is expected through the next 48 hours. Clearing skies, slackening winds, and a resident dry airmass will allow for the coldest night of the year thus far with lows in the 20s areawide and near freezing along the Lake Michigan shore.
The clouds were keeping temperatures on a steady or slowly falling trend with readings as of 2 AM in the mid 30s north to the low 40s over the south.
At the surface, a high pressure center is positioned across the Midwest leading to light or calm winds. As a result, very weak WAA should commence by late in the day with high temps also a few degrees warmer than today.
Ridging over the area continues dry conditions with mild temperatures today. An approaching trough will begin to impact the forecast area on Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures. While much of the area may see precipitation, confidence for development is the highest over both the central Idaho mountains and over Baker County in Oregon. The trough on Thursday is expected to increase westerly wind across the forecast area, with the strongest wind noted south and west of the Snake Plain.
Based on the model consensus, rainfall chances are pretty low, especially given the low moisture and higher stability in the environment. So, overall expect mostly dry conditions and cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Temperatures this evening have already dropped into the low-to-mid 40s, but I suspect wind may help keep temperatures out of the 30s for the most part. Cooler pockets may exist in areas protected from the wind, such as Winchester which is already down to 39 degrees. By the end of the day on Thursday some partial clearing will begin to take place, allowing temperatures to creep back into the mid to upper 50s across the western half of the area -- with cooler readings to the south and east underneath the cloud cover.
An area of clouds off shore is associated with low pressure that will remain well east of the region. This puts lows into the low 20s north and below freezing all the way to the coast. Thursday high pressure will hold over the region, with light winds.
A cold night is in store with readings already in the lower to middle 30s, and lows in the upper 20s to around 30 are still expected. Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure centered over Iowa providing cool northwesterly winds across central Indiana. High pressure will continue to build east into central Indiana through the short term. The long range will start off with an upper trough pivoting east across the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday.
219 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Upper ridge builds into the area today and remains over eastern Montana on Thursday. This will bring warmer temperatures into the region that will be around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday. Some areas will have a chance of rain showers with the cold front.
330 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 (Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021) Today through Thursday Night: A sprawling area of high pressure has moved overhead early this morning. Quiet weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure moves very little.
A mesoscale trough is rounding the southeast periphery of a ridge that is centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley. The trough is expected to persist through the overnight though the extent of the showers remains in question. There remains some low level convergence below the 700 mb level and there is obviously enough moisture pooling in the low levels to produce these showers. That said, debated for a while lowering PoPs for the lower and middle Keys but ultimately decided not to deviate from the earlier forecast. Winds have begun freshening as a mesoscale trough slowly drifts westward across the Florida Keys coastal water. Expect gentle to moderate breezes to prevail through the overnight and into Wednesday due to a building high pressure across the central and eastern U.
1052 PM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 An upper ridge building over the western CONUS will bring dry weather through Thursday as it shifts eastward across the forecast area.
The axis of the trough should be east of eastern KY to being the period with west to northwest flow aloft across the lower OH Valley and central to southern Appalachians. At the sfc a ridge of high pressure is expected to extend from the Northeast Conus into the OH and TN Valley and Appalachians. A few ridge locations may only fall to the 30 degree mark.
Have tweaked the 6Z TAFs a bit to match up with most of the latest 00Z HREF members which are in decent agreement in regards to timing of cold front Wednesday and its associated precip.
With high pressure slowly meandering towards our area today, we will stay mostly clear, aside from scattered cumulus clouds that will quickly deplete after sunset. Through the night, high pressure will be passing through our area. Tomorrow, the high pressure slowly slides to our east, briefly introducing a southerly breeze in the afternoon. Ridge in west will continue to build in the west, leaving us in moderate northwest flow aloft. Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend. The western edge of the 500 mb trough that brought cooler weather to the area this week finally shifts eastward on Thursday as 500 mb heights and warmer air are drawn northward and into the area. The building ridge across the Plains will push the jet stream northward into the Upper Midwest.
Low clouds will linger through most of the day, but warmer and drier air should start to move in later this afternoon. High pressure will gradually build over the area an lead to warmer air. With warmer air in place on Thursday highs are expected to return back into the 60s and lows Thursday night should be back above freezing for most of the area.
A cold front that is currently south of I-10 will continue to move south today. Temperatures will fall into the 30's and 40's overnight with near freezing temperatures possible in northern Lea and Gaines counties.
1000 PM MST Tue Nov 2 2021 Updated Aviation High pressure will redevelop and strengthen over the southwest United States through the weekend bringing clear skies and a warming trend. High temperatures today will be at or just above normal, with temps peaking in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts. This short wave will move east of our forecast area by tonight with high pressure redeveloping and strengthening over the desert southwest for the remainder of the week and this weekend.
However, as subsidence and drying associated with the high pressure ridge to the west increases there will be little chance for this activity to linger past noon. Thursday will see eastern Utah and western Colorado under the influence of a highly amplified ridge, while at the same time the next Pacific trough moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. That Pacific trough swings by to the north Thursday night, and models have been inconsistent as to whether northeast Utah and northwest Colorado will see any impacts.