Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forecast generally on track with longwave trough moving steadily east to impact the area this afternoon and evening. Winds were increased somewhat, especially south given signals of strong rise/fall couplet and mixing of slightly stronger winds especially behind the low with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Remainder of the forecast will be dominated by amplifying trough and eventual closed low that will bring bouts of precip to the area.
There have been some lowering of ceilings to as low as about 5000 ft, and a sprinkle may be possible at northern most and southern most sites in assoc with passing trough this morning.
Tomorrow a cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma by around noon, pushing its way southeast across the northwest half of Oklahoma through the afternoon. Southerly surface flow ahead of the front and a developing low level thermal ridge over southwest OK / western north TX will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s and 80s.
Max temps Sunday likely to be a degree or two warmer than today.
1030 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 After a cooler start in the middle to upper 30s for much of Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, temperatures currently range from the middle to upper 40s for much of the area this morning. Sounding analysis this morning shows dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and with cloud bases at/above 10kft, much of this is just for show on the radar this morning. High pressure will center near the area tonight, resulting in an uneventful night with lows in the lower 40s. This high will slowly shift to the east on Sunday and sfc flow will begin to veer to the south over the southern Plains.
With an approaching cold front, expect the gradient to keep in tact as it pushes through mid day turning winds out of the northwest behind it.
Clouds and cold front pushing south this morning with temps holding around 30F. Today will see clouds overspread most of the area as a cold front moves through the region this morning. There remains good agreement within the model solutions for Sunday's short wave to track from SW ND into SE SD with precip along the western and southern edges of the forecast area from Langdon south to Cooperstown and Valley City to Lisbon and into the Wahpeton and Breckenridge and over to Elbow Lake MN with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of precip.
An inch or two of snowfall is possible for the highest elevations of the Absarokas. The jet streak wrapping around the southern end of the trough is bringing gustier winds across southern WY this afternoon, with gusts of 35 to 40 knots continuing. As the trough sweeps east tonight, taking the jet streak along with it, winds will again decrease for the state. Brief ridging builds back in behind the trough for Sunday, keeping conditions tranquil again. Temperatures Sunday will be slightly cooler, only getting into the 50s, vs.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 68 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 65 40 73 49 / 10 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 41 66 40 72 48 / 10 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 61 35 70 45 / 10 0 0 10 10.
Therefore, a few minor adjustments were made to the high temperatures. Mainly zonal flow aloft will be across the area today as a sfc lee trough is in place along the Front Range. For tonight, an upper level trough will move across the nrn Rockies with westerly flow aloft continuing. At lower elevations it will remain dry, however, a cold front will move across nern CO late tonight. Finally, winds will be gusty over the higher terrain. Precipitation will be snow in the mountains, and rain and mixed on the lower elevations. The wave will push a cold front across northeast Colorado Sunday morning. There will be breezy northerly winds behind the front and temperatures will be 10 to 15 F cooler, with highs in the 50s across the plains and 30s and 40s in the high country.
The associated cold front will move into Missouri by Sunday afternoon and slide to the southeast eventually stalling out just south of the Missouri/Arkansas border. This increasing low level moisture, as well as convergence along the frontal boundary will allow showers to develop ahead of the cold front beginning late Sunday afternoon.
200 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure will move off to the east today. A cold front will quickly move across the region tonight. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still run a bit below normal. Low pressure will quickly move from northern Indiana across northern Ohio tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the forecast area. Expect good coverage of showers closer to the low with decreasing coverage moving away from the low center south along the cold front. High pressure will build across the area on Sunday. Temperatures will approach normal where clouds clear earlier in the day across southern counties while it will still be a bit cooler where clouds linger longer in the north. High pressure axis shifts east Sunday night while the next mid-level disturbance quickly approaches the Ohio Valley from the upper Midwest.
1042 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Upper trough located over eastern Arkansas at this time and quickly moving off to the east.
(Today and tonight) A cold front moved through the area overnight, producing a few showers and thunderstorms across the Big county to as far south as Brady and San Saba. These showers have all but dissipated across the area, with only some scattered clouds left along/behind the cold front. Winds will be out of the north to northeast today behind the cold front. Although we'll be behind the cold front tonight, lows will be similar to this morning, dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s in most locations.
Latest NAM3 soundings are colder in the low levels this evening (and more ambitious with QPF) than the HRRR, favoring more in the way of snow this evening. Meanwhile areas to the north and west of GRR, where low levels are cooler, should end up being predominately all wet snow with a mix possible at the start. Some bridges and overpasses could turn slick this evening. Precipitation should come to an end around midnight as this trough slides east and dampening high pressure moves in.
Forecast remains on track as the upper low is moving across the southern shores of Lake Michigan. Rain associated with this low is expected to quickly traverse the area from west to east before ending tonight around 2-3am. Weak ridge briefly builds over the area on Sunday to provide a break from precip. The upper ridge over the area will slide east Sunday night as an upper low and associated surface warm front moves across the upper Midwest.
211 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure will slide east this evening. High pressure overhead today has allowed for mostly sunny and dry conditions. High pressure begins to slide east into the Atlantic this afternoon in advance of an approaching upper- level wave moving through the southern Great Lakes tonight. Wind gusts expected in the 20-30 mph range with the strongest winds at the higher elevations. Afternoon temperatures in the 40s for the highest elevations, but generally a mix of mid 50s to low 60s for most locations.
140 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure over Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon will move east of the region tonight. Another weak system Focus will shift to the evolutino of a large cut off upper low digging into the Midwest during the midweek timeframe. The low center will likely track along the I-80 corridor with steadiest light precip across the northern third to half of central PA after sunrsie Sunday.
(The rest of today ) Light rain has exited the area this morning with the lagging cold front currently near a Miami OK to Bristow OK line.
This high pressure moves to the northeast late Sunday allowing for very moist air to move back into the area late Sunday night with PWATs climbing from 0.
200 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 The base of an upper level trough is moving east across the Mid State this afternoon. Weak upper level ridging arrives in the Tennessee Valley tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s under sunny skies and light to moderate westerly winds.
1213 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 (The rest of today ) Light rain has exited the area this morning with the lagging cold front currently near a Miami OK to Bristow OK line.
Minimum temperatures and winds overachieved last night, putting several locations in near freezing/sub-freezing conditions for several hours.
a stationary frontal boundary will linger across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight as a weak cold front across south Texas this afternoon continues to wash out. Some isolated showers are expected to develop across portions of the northern ranchlands late Sun night as a weak warm front lift northward across the Texas coast and a cold front moves through northwest Texas.
Some lingering light drizzle is possible for a few hours after the main area of precip departs, with perhaps even some patchy freezing drizzle where sfc temps manage to dip slightly below freezing.
Upper trough located over eastern Arkansas at this time and quickly moving off to the east.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated one area of weak low pressure over northwest Upper MI and a second area of weak low pressure over central IL. A trough connected the two low pressures, while the true cold front was just entering northwest WI. Min temperatures to range from the middle 20s north-central WI, to the lower 30s over east-central WI. A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to slide across WI Sunday morning and try to break up the clouds. This ridge quickly exits the region Sunday afternoon with the next system already dropping southeast into the Upper Midwest. Max temperatures for Sunday to range from the lower to middle 40s north, middle to upper 40s south.
Currently, S/WV mid level ridge moving east into the Northern Plains with a potent mid level S/WV trough approaching central Montana. Mid level trough slides east/southeast into eastern Montana this evening, then across the Dakotas overnight through Sunday morning. Snow will have a tough time accumulating with sfc temperatures around freezing and now that our ground has warmed up this Spring. 1-2 inches is currently favored with the higher QPF for the above mentioned area. Lastly, with the cooler air drawn into our region, we will see highs Sunday about 10 degrees colder than today.
Winds veer to the south by Sunday morning in response to the next mid level trough coming across the northern plains. Lack of cool air advection behind the boundary, good downsloping flow, and mixing to h850 are all a decent signal for warmer temps, especially as models were exhibiting a slightly cooler bias for this afternoon. Therefore trended closer to 50th percentile from the NBM in the lower 70s. If the higher instability were to come to fruition, a few stronger storms may occur over far east central KS after 4 PM.
The trough producing this activity is expected to be east of the forecast area by the mid-afternoon hours, with snowfall ending around this evening.
The breeze will become very light by sunset as high pressure builds overhead and overnight lows in the 30s are expected. Late tonight through tomorrow night, a compact short wave trough will move from its current location over northwest Montana across the Dakotas and on to Wisconsin. Behind the front expect very high to extreme fire danger to develop as RH dips into the lower 20 percent range and winds increase with gusts 35 to 40 mph. Then as the day progresses, there is an increasing chance of scattered showers with decent frontal forcing and modest moisture in the low/mid levels.
As high pressure moves from west to east tomorrow cloud cover will thin out and winds will swing around to the northeast.
Soundings show the low/mid levels becoming more saturated through the night so there is a low chance that some areas may see an isolated sprinkle. Overnight lows will be warmer tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
As mentioned winds will quickly diminish Sunday night, and with the dry air and clear skies expect a cold night with lows in the lower to mid 20s.
(Through tonight) Pleasant early spring afternoon with temperatures in the 60s as weak high pressure builds into the region.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through Sunday allowing for stable conditions characterized by mostly clear skies across the region.
Look for lows tonight to be a bit cooler following this morning's cold front. Much warmer temperatures will make a return as well with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow afternoon.
Strong high pressure and warmer weather will build back into the area during the middle and end of the week with afternoon readings 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal average.
Temperatures have warmed nicely into low 60s early this afternoon, and are expected to top out a couple degrees warmer under clearing skies as the cold front from this morning continues to push east of the area. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds with wind gusts of generally up to 20-30 mph will quickly weaken this evening into tonight as high pressure moves over the region. The aforementioned high pressure will lead to a favorable set-up for radiational cooling tonight with light winds and clear skies. Some of the cold spots in valleys of the eastern Ozarks could dip into the low 30s. Some rain/embedded thunderstorms may reach our SE Kansas and west-central Missouri portions of the area during the late afternoon, but the better precipitation chances should begin during the evening and overnight as the cold front works into our forecast area.
254 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Upper level ridging currently moving in is keeping skies mainly clear via subsidence aloft, making for a pleasantly sunny afternoon. Any chance for fire concerns will get squashed as a cold front sweeps through the region from northwest to southeast, cooling temperatures and raising relative humidities. Have used NBM for winds and a blend of NBM and CONshort for wind gusts as cold air advection on the backside of the low will create gusty northwesterly winds.
1233 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure will move off to the east today. A cold front will quickly move across the region tonight. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still run a bit below normal. Low pressure will quickly move from northern Indiana across northern Ohio tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the forecast area. Expect good coverage of showers closer to the low with decreasing coverage moving away from the low center south along the cold front. High pressure will build across the area on Sunday. Temperatures will approach normal where clouds clear earlier in the day across southern counties while it will still be a bit cooler where clouds linger longer in the north. High pressure axis shifts east Sunday night while the next mid-level disturbance quickly approaches the Ohio Valley from the upper Midwest.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
An approaching trough will bring an introduction of snowfall across the higher elevations of Baker County and portions of the West Central Mountains for late Sunday night.
Because of the aforementioned clearing and light winds and after collaborating with our neighbors, we will issue another frost advisory for most of our CWA overnight as lows drop into the low/mid 30s. High pressure builds in for tomorrow with light winds and plenty of sunshine. Expect temperatures to warm into the low 60s with a few upper 50s in the afternoon.
645 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Upper level ridging currently moving in is keeping skies mainly clear via subsidence aloft, making for a pleasantly sunny afternoon. Any chance for fire concerns will get squashed as a cold front sweeps through the region from northwest to southeast, cooling temperatures and raising relative humidities. Have used NBM for winds and a blend of NBM and CONshort for wind gusts as cold air advection on the backside of the low will create gusty northwesterly winds.
625 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 (Through tonight) Pleasant early spring afternoon with temperatures in the 60s as weak high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure wl settle into the state tngt then shift to the east on Sun.
807 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure over Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon will move east of the region tonight. Another weak system Focus will shift to the evolution of a large cut off upper low digging into the Midwest during the midweek timeframe. The low center will likely track along the I-80 corridor with steadiest light precip across the northern third to half of central PA after sunrise Sunday.
(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the OH/TN valleys will expand across the SE states, pushing a slow moving sfc front southward over the FL peninsula Sun and south of the area by nightfall.
Temperatures will be warmer (around 5 degrees above normal) on Sunday. An approaching trough will bring an introduction of snowfall across the higher elevations of Baker County and portions of the West Central Mountains for late Sunday night.
1051 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure over Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon will move east of the region tonight. Another weak system Focus will shift to the evolution of a large cut off upper low digging into the Midwest during the midweek timeframe. We can see the strong circulation of the vort max on IR pics near KFWA as it rounds the base of the upper trough. The trough will go negative on the tilt and cause some good lift over the CWA later tonight. Some light SN accum is possible late tonight and Sun AM, but only on the high ground. Most lower elevation towns will get nil even if flakes do mix in for a time since min temps will remain pretty well above freezing (35-40F for 70pct of the CWA).
Brief high pressure over the Northern Rockies tonight through midday Sunday will allow winds to diminish and overnight temperatures to cool mostly well below freezing across the region.
301 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Rain and snow showers associated with a passing cold front will exit to the east this evening.
The base of an upper level trough is moving east across the Mid State this afternoon. Weak upper level ridging arrives in the Tennessee Valley tomorrow afternoon.
Gusty surface winds return for Sunday late morning/afternoon, with a wind shift expected across the northeast as a backdoor cold front slides southward. Warmer conditions will continue through the weekend with above normal temperatures and increasing afternoon breezes.
Tomorrow should be a doozy with lots of sun and warmer temperatures.
Otherwise, the line of storms that moved in this afternoon brought a much cooler airmass a bit farther south that was previously forecast.
912 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 High pressure over Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon will move east of the region tonight. Another weak system Focus will shift to the evolution of a large cut off upper low digging into the Midwest during the midweek timeframe. We can see the strong circulation of the vort max on IR pics near KFWA as it rounds the base of the upper trough. The trough will go negative on the tilt and cause some good lift over the CWA later tonight. Some light SN accum is possible late tonight and Sun AM, but only on the high ground. Most lower elevation towns will get nil even if flakes do mix in for a time since min temps will remain pretty well above freezing (35-40F for 70pct of the CWA).
In the meantime, light and variable winds will prevail overnight and then gradually trending E/SE as high pressure shifts east of the region on Sunday. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through Sunday allowing for stable conditions characterized by mostly clear skies across the region.
630 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Aviation Section Updated Rain and snow showers associated with a passing cold front will exit to the east this evening.
Low clouds were increasing over the northeastern portion of the forecast area, behind a cold front about to exit southeast into VA. High pressure building in from the west will bring clear or clearing skies today. The high will pass east over the area this evening, providing good cooling conditions at least for the first part of the night.
High pressure over the central plains at this time will build over the region tonight before being quickly shunted off to the east Sunday as the next system moves into the plains. Trailing cold front will be over far NW AR of the state with the boundary expected to move slowly through the state during the day.
Moderate swly surface winds return Sunday late morning/afternoon, with a wind shift expected across the northeast as a relatively strong backdoor cold front moves in. Warmer conditions will continue through the weekend with above normal temperatures and increasing afternoon breezes. A weak Pacific disturbance will move over on Monday, bringing cooler conditions, increased cloud cover and minimal chances for showers.
305 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Short Term (Today through Monday): Models begin the short term with a persisting frontal boundary lingering across Central Florida and extending northward through the Atlantic coast into its parent mid level low/trough system over NY/NH region.
327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A benign start to the day as high pressure nears the area. A dry cold front will move through the area this morning, marked by a few mid level clouds moving southeast across north AL currently. The northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal for early April, and afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 60s. With zonal flow over the southeast, will see a gradual increase in moisture and temperatures on Monday as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s.
Wet bulb zeros will generally be a few degrees above freezing which should limit any mix.
Where the winds have slowed, temps have plummeted to near freezing in parts of western Iowa and far northeastern Nebraska. Those southerly winds will turn to the northwest with a cold front muscling through mid-day today. The slight chances of rain showers are first tied to the eastward progression of the warm front. Better chances are anticipated with the push of the cold front as it moves into Iowa this afternoon.
Southerly winds will pick up today brining warmer temperatures this afternoon. The southerly winds will aid in rapid low level moisture return this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will move into northeastern Oklahoma late this afternoon.
Dewpoints in the low 40s will continue to slowly fall and temps will fall a bit faster to catch up and get most of the area to be in the upper 30s for lows. Highs will be a bit warmer today but not too much as northwest flow aloft still dominates. By Monday, some southerly flow at the surface will help highs get into the 70s, but a warm front/stationary boundary looks to set up just off to our northwest, and may bring some light rain to the northwest/northern zones.
With an approaching cold front, expect the gradient to keep in tact as it pushes through mid day turning winds out of the northwest behind it. Expect afternoon high temperatures to be slightly cooler in the mid 60s for northern counties being affected earlier by the cold front with upper 60s to low 70s further south, and warmest along the Oklahoma state line. Moisture looks limited behind the front with minimal Pops heading into Monday morning associated with the upper trough, especially for south central Kansas and points east and south. As any light rain exits south central Kansas from the short term period to the east out of the CWA, high pressure will build in from the northwest giving way to light winds and improved skies into the afternoon hours Monday.