Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
940 AM PST THU JAN 7 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. WALLMANN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING.
THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. ALSO THE MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE LOW LEVEL EPV IN A SATURATED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF ENHANCED SNOW AT TIMES ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY AND WILL BECOME COLDER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONGER TROUGH SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE OVER TX/OK LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE NAM/GFS KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP WHERE IT REMAINS LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON. A BLOCKING RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER COLORADO AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
236 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVR THE CWA TONIGHT WITH NR CALM WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED TOMORROW AS H5 RIDGE AXIS BISECTS CWA BY THE END OF THE PD.
304 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE A QUICK SUCCESSION OF WEAK TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
For tonight, the upper low over extreme south central Kansas moves northeastward into Arkansas by morning. For Friday, an upper level storm system, and associated upper low will move from the Four Corners Region in the morning, then eastward into the Texas Panhandle by evening. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s, with mid 30s to around 40 southeast of Dodge City. For Friday night, the upper low and storm system over the Texas Panhandle will move eastward and into Oklahoma by morning.
120 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SHOWERS AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
Will maintain the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains through mid afternoon, though winds are expected to weaken this evening. Moisture ahead of the next wave will begin to affect far western portions of the forecast area overnight tonight, mainly the higher terrain and adjacent plains. A bit of snow may briefly mix in with light rain late tonight and early Friday morning, mainly across higher terrain and across northern Lea county where overnight lows will drop below freezing. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Friday, mainly due to cloudcover, but the focus will again turn to high winds, especially from late Friday morning through Friday evening. Will continue the High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Friday, as gusts to 70 MPH are possible across higher elevations.
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE LOW CLOUD FIELD AND PATCHY FOG THAT SEPARATED FROM THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING HAS BASICALLY BURNED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
127 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW DECREASING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DESPITE THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE LOWERING DEWPOINTS WITH TIME. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW ENTERS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
335 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA, WHILE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING SFC WINDS OUT OF NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS. SINCE OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE DIGGING THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WOULD BE RAIN, WHILE WEAK FORCING WOULD KEEP IT LIGHT.
400 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP NEAR THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ONE UPPER LOW OVER THE C PLAINS MOVING NE WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND OVER N TX FRI NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
WATCHING THIS MORNING CLOSELY FOR ANY HINT OF IMPACT FOR AN UPGRADE TO AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A NICE RAIN/SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 0. VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE WILL SEE THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES. WHILE COOLER ELEVATED LOCATIONS AND NORTHCENTRAL WI NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. WILL GET THE HIGHER END.
144 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
More sunshine and a better downslope component will aid temperature climb and stayed on the high side of guidance for forecasted highs.
COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE MID TEENS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE TX PNHDL WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA.
Overrunning rain chances will develop and increase from west to east today as warm frontogenesis develops from a system over the southern plains. Rain chances will max out this evening into the overnight hours as the aforementioned warm front lifts northeast across the region. We expect somewhat of a lull/decrease in precipitation chances on Friday in the wake of the warm frontal passage. Friday night as the cold front associated with this system approaches our region, rain chances begin to ramp up again.
1241 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
The precipitation will initially be coming into a dry low-level airmass, courtesy of southeasterly flow around high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic States, so its arrival may be delayed a bit longer than what models are advertising.
THIS IS DUE TO AN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CROSSING NV TODAY. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL BRING A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. THE AREA WILL ON THE EAST FLANK OF A BLOCKY RIDGE STARTING FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY.
WITH LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR/NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THERMAL PROFILES TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY AND KEEP THE SURFACE TO 800MB LAYER ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. BUT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE SHORT TERM. THAT FG WILL PREVAIL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THE INVERTED TROUGH BE THE NEAR DELINEATION LINE FOR A REGION OF FOG TO DENSE FOG ON FRIDAY WITH POOLED MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL TRANSITION TO SNOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.
WATCHING THIS MORNING CLOSELY FOR ANY HINT OF IMPACT FOR AN UPGRADE TO AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. A NICE RAIN/SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 0. VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE WILL SEE THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES. WHILE COOLER ELEVATED LOCATIONS AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. WILL GET THE HIGHER END.
For tonight, the upper low over extreme south central Kansas moves northeastward into Arkansas by morning. For Friday, an upper level storm system, and associated upper low will move from the Four Corners Region in the morning, then eastward into the Texas Panhandle by evening. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s, with mid 30s to around 40 southeast of Dodge City.
Short term guidance is hinting at below freezing surface temperatures reaching far north central KS after mid night. Thermal profiles are suggesting this precipitation could be in the form of rain and or snow due to a nearly isothermal layer in the lowest layers. Of course, where temperatures are below freezing there could be freezing drizzle. Freezing temperatures may reach location along and west of a line from Marysville to Abilene. As the winds shift to the northwest and cooler air begins to push southward fog may be inhibited and or dissipate.
255 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WITH THE CHANGE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHEAST/NORTH BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS ABOVE. WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING ELONGATED AS THE ACTUAL CENTER PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
/FOR THE 18Z TAFS/ ON THE BACK SIDE OF EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
DRIZZLE (FREEZING IN SOME PLACES) AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
However forecast soundings show relatively warm temperatures in the lowest 4000 to 4500 ft suggesting that precipitation will be all liquid. They system itself doesn't look strong enough to lead to dynamic cooling and plots of 925mb and 850mb temperatures don't indicate any pocket of cooler air being produced from the lift associated with the wave.
LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS AFTN AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. MIX OF MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT INTO THIS EVENING AS SLOW-MOVING WEAK TROUGH AND EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. SHOULD SEE MORE CONSISTENT RISES IN CEILING HEIGHT AFTER 00Z AS TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND SNOW TAPERS OFF, BUT FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD VISIBILITIES IN MVFR CATEGORY. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH FOG ALSO IMPACTING VISIBILITY IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING.
HOWEVER AN U/L TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MIDWEST IS CREATING SPLIT FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS AFTN AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH FOG ALSO IMPACTING VISIBILITY IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
H7 CLOSED LOW WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AT DAYBREAK HAVING PUSHED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO ARCHULETA CO AND OVER THE SAN JUANS BY LATE MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND REACH SE COLORADO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY.
THE LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN NV AT THIS TIME.
316 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING 70M HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW AT 500MB. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL AREAS.
418 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
329 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN RIVER.
CURRENT LOCAL LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MOVE MOVING NORTH WITH STRONG VORT MAX. NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND COULD DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BUILDS NORTHWARD. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH VERY LOW PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSEST TO THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED / WE BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AS ALLOWED FOR A NORTHEAST CONVERGENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS TODAY WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT NOTED.
21 (Friday night through Thursday) A cold front will be making its way south across West Central TX Friday evening.
Several models seem to focus the highest rain totals over much of western Ky this evening, but even there, amounts will not be very heavy, with less than 1/3 inch most locations. Most operational models also agree on generally dry warm sector conditions Friday afternoon and evening, as our region gets into some mid/upper level ridging in between H50 short waves.
LOW PRESSURE AND 2MB THREE HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INDICATED CYCLOGENESIS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF U. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
WEAK NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IT WILL FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ITS FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH HAS LINGERED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW FREEZING. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.
1115 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
A split flow pattern has developed this past week as a large western CONUS ridge developed. As a result, expect afternoon highs to range through the 30s into the low 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and teens.
Cooler high pressure will slide south from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and then into the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TROUGHING IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS. DESPITE TROUGHING OCCURRING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE MIXED. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AND SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS OUR AREA GETS NUDGED A BIT MORE SOUTH. WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHELTERED VALLEYS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN. WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FCST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
112 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO WE ARE STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
not long enough to extend the high wind warning there.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ZONAL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER SATURDAY.
221 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SHALLOW SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO THE MID 30S.
348 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE SITTING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
The cold front continues to move further south. Expect the rain to gradually end west to east overnight with the highest PoPs near 60% in the Big Bend.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A DRY WEEKEND.
THE CLOUDS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. NEXT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF MINNESOTA SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SW AND CUTOFF SUPPORT FROM THE LAKE. QUITE MUTED DIURNAL RISE TODAY WITH 925MB THERMAL TROF OVER AREA. CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT THERMAL TROFS EASTWARD SWEEP INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
CNM and HOB may experience additional light freezing drizzle and fog while the other sites may experience light rain this afternoon. not long enough to extend the high wind warning there.
CURTAILED THE LOW END POPS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS. THE REGION LAY BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN NORTHWEST NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHWARD SATURDAY TAKING THE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. SAT NGT THROUGH SUN NGT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN CA MOVES NORTH AND FILLS.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH DRYING WILL OCCUR (ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS).
1118 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. BROAD COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROF DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS FAVORS KEEPING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO OUR WEST THRU THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4F TO 8F (NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA) SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S NEAR YUMA COLORADO (WHERE WINDS OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE WEST WEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES) TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 FOR GOVE. TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS AMPLIFYING RIDGE THROUGH THE INITIAL PART OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MAKING IT/S WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ADDING TO THE LIFT. AND REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS.
The only exception will be across mainly our Northwest Hill Country, where slightly higher surface moisture will hold lows mainly around the freezing mark. While a few sprinkles are possible, wintry type precipitation is not expected, as temperatures will not fall below freezing until later.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND.
Water vapor imagery showing Rex block in place over the Pacific Northwest with weak downstream troughing over the Northern Plains, leading to low level west to northwest winds. Dry and relatively warm air in place Friday allowed temps to reach the middle 30s to lower 40s, and 0Z upper air data showed warmer 850mb temps to the northwest, upstream in this regime. With west to northwest winds continuing and still considerable snowpack north of Highway 36 and east of Marysville per Friday afternoon visible satellite data, have kept values a bit cooler there, but most guidance is still well too generous on the current snow field.
PESKY FREEZING FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS MAY END UP STAYING IN PLACE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR FROM PATCHY FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS DURATION OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AT KBZN/KHLN. EXPECT ONGOING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS TO DISSIPATE AROUND 20Z FRIDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Generally westerly flow with some variations slightly to the south or north will prevail tonight as a weak trof of low pressure moves through the region. mainly in the low to mid 20s.
500 MB VORTICES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT FROM THE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE BAJA CALI PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE OVER TX AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE BAJA CALI TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST CROSSING NROTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE SAT WHICH WILL STEADILY INCREASE THE UVV OVER THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE INVERTED COASTAL TROFFING WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY HIGH POPS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH SAT. THE NAM HAS A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS VERSUS THE GFS AND ECMWF. A QUICK LOOK AT THE MODEL TEMP PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TEMPS AND WILL GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
500 mb heights will slowly start to rise as a mid-level ridge builds near and just east of the Rockies.
414 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
404 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.