Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
913 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 The synoptic pattern continues to hold broad high pressure over the eastern U. Temperatures are very comfortable this morning with most of the area in the low to mid 60's. Broad high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
/Issued 411 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ Cold front is located across central Kansas this morning, with an extensive stratus deck behind it. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday's near record highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, but they will still be well above normal for the time of year. Upper storm system which will be affecting the area this weekend is still located off the CA coast, and will transition to an open trough by Friday night near the Four Corners. There is a chance for isolated showers or possibly even drizzle near the stalled warm front but most precipitation won't arrive until Friday night when the large scale ascent increases.
These conditions were advected in during the day yesterday by southeast winds in advance of a developing area of low pressure over the Central and Southern High Plains. This appears to be just a pre- cursor to the next system that will affect west Texas, which is an upper low currently located just off of southern California. Otherwise, temperatures will be held to the mid 60s today, and in the low to mid 50s tonight, due to the cloud cover across the area.
Pleasantly warm weather continues today as highs stay several degrees above normal, but just a little cooler than the last couple of days. The upper ridge will continue to break down over the east coast and allow for a small chance of spotty light showers during the day on Friday as a weak boundary passes through the mid state.
Freezing fog may develop late tonight across NW SD and linger into Friday.
/issued 416 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ The Mid-South currently is still on the back side of a ridge situated over eastern CONUS. Therefore, with a slightly weaker ridge and more cloud coverage, temperatures are forecast to be slightly lower for highs today with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-upper 60s.
559 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over northwest MN. An upper trough was located over far southeast ND. Model cross section indicated dry layers mostly between 850 and 700 hpa last evening with freezing drizzle mainly over the northern valley. High res models show band to move north and east for the rest of the morning as upper low moves out. Any freezing drizzle this morning should be confined along the far northern valley and move north.
IFR/LIFR fog will affect mainly KLAW and possibly KSPS early in the forecast period before west/northwest winds arrive behind weak pressure trough. VFR conditions expected all terminals after 16Z with lower level ridge moving in from Kansas.
Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over northwest MN. An upper trough was located over far southeast ND. Model cross section indicated dry layers mostly between 850 and 700 hpa last evening with freezing drizzle mainly over the northern valley. High res models show band to move north and east for the rest of the morning as upper low moves out. Any freezing drizzle this morning should be confined along the far northern valley and move north.
416 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 The Mid-South currently is still on the back side of a ridge situated over eastern CONUS. Therefore, with a slightly weaker ridge and more cloud coverage, temperatures are forecast to be slightly lower for highs today with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-upper 60s.
This low-level moisture axis is ahead of an amplifying, positively tilted trough with a 500mb cut-off low that is now centered off of the southern California coastline. Clouds will steadily increase throughout the day today, and the southwesterly flow regime will make for another mild day across West Texas as temperatures climb into the lower 60s. As the trough axis pivots eastward, a broad area of upper-level divergence will spread into the region.
Some low stratus clouds have been filling up the valleys of western Montana tonight, but are expected to erode out today as dry air and a ridge builds over the region.
Some low stratus clouds have been filling up the valleys of western Montana tonight, but they are expected to erode out today as dry air and a ridge builds over the region today.
A deepening upper level low pressure system along the CA coast will continue to deepen as it digs southeastward. A weak to moderate low level flow will increase the low level moisture across S TX through the short term. Temperatures will continue to be above normal today and Friday with temps on Friday expected to be a couple of degrees warmer.
For Friday we are still under anticyclonic ridging at the surface and with a fair amount of sunshine, that will be welcome as it has been very cloudy lately, temperatures will rebound back through the 20s, and even into the mid 30s where snow cover is lacking - southwestern North Dakota.
Temperatures should reach from the mid 50s over far southern Lower Michigan to the lower 60s south of highway 30.
312 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2019 High pressure will bring dry weather conditions to the region for today, with temperatures warming into the day Friday. Latest guidance points to an upper ridge anchored across the northwestern U.
/issued 239 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ Water vapor shows a cold upper low INVOF srn Calif coast with a long fetch of subtropical upper-level moisture streaming newd out MX into W TX. Meanwhile the aforementioned upper low will have moved INVOF SE AZ by 21Z Fri and bit a sfc moisture gradient sets up with M50s dewpoints across much of the PB. Mid/upper level height falls will overspread the area and as the jet/cold front move into the more moist atmosphere TSRA may develop into a line along the cold front, ECMWF is a little farther w with initiation. Thereafter Sun-Tue temps will likely be below normal with some precip possible across the far s-sw depending on upper low.
411 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Cold front is located across central Kansas this morning, with an extensive stratus deck behind it. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday's near record highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, but they will still be well above normal for the time of year. Upper storm system which will be affecting the area this weekend is still located off the CA coast, and will transition to an open trough by Friday night near the Four Corners. There is a chance for isolated showers or possibly even drizzle near the stalled warm front but most precipitation won't arrive until Friday night when the large scale ascent increases.
An upper trough was located over far southeast ND. Model cross section indicated dry layers mostly between 850 and 700 hpa last evening with freezing drizzle mainly over the northern valley. High res models show band to move north and east for the rest of the morning as upper low moves out. Any freezing drizzle this morning should be confined along the far northern valley and move north.
206 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Areas of light rain should develop overnight into Friday with a crossing trough.
A powerful, slow moving cyclone embedded within the southern stream will develop in the lee of the Rockies and then track toward the Upper Great Lakes region this weekend. Quiet weather is expected Friday as an anticyclone passes just south of the area. The focus then turns to the powerful, slow-moving southern stream cyclone that will be heading northeast from the Plains.
There may be isolated pockets of flurries or freezing drizzle, as there are some echoes moving southeast into northeast SD. Also had an mping report of freezing drizzle near Gettysburg earlier, but hard to notice any noteworthy impacts on area web cams. As for temperatures, highs will range from the low to mid 30s over central SD where 925mb temps are a little warmer, to the 20s over eastern areas.
1027 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A cold front is currently located across Osage and Pawnee Counties in northeast Oklahoma this morning.
Despite the passage of this cold front, a stratus cloud deck will stick with us for most of the day on Friday, limiting the amount of sunshine. Short-lived high pressure over the region will quickly slide to our northeast on Friday night as the next system bears down on the central CONUS this weekend.
126 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Upper trough approaching will bring wind and increasing chances of rain to the area.
400 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Currently - High pressure aligned over the Atlantic states is responsible for mostly gentle to moderate northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. A large upper level ridge is aligned along our longitude. Skies are a mix of mostly clear and partly cloudy due to the low stratocumulus and tufts of thin cirrus. This will gradually sharpen a ridge across Florida and the Keys, maintaining gentle to moderate winds gradually clocking around southeasterly.
Temperatures are well above freezing and no icing problems are expected.
Without any significant changes in airmass characteristics on the horizon, this low stratus will likely remain in place for a while -- but the question is just how long? As of 3AM MST, IFR stratus is in place at IDA and PIH, with LIFR stratus in place at BYI.
222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing temperatures closer to normal for Friday before warm air moves back into Illinois for the weekend.
200 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A relatively weak cold front from near Stillwater to Watonga to Arnett will continue to advance south tonight. However, given the proximity to freezing, we have included wording to suggest the possibility that freezing rain might occur.
/issued 913 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019/ The synoptic pattern continues to hold broad high pressure over the eastern U. Temperatures are very comfortable this morning with most of the area in the low to mid 60's. Broad high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Avery High pressure will bring dry weather conditions to the region for today, with temperatures warming into the day Friday. Latest guidance points to an upper ridge anchored across the northwestern U.
Near calm conditions and increasing lower layer moisture has the higher odds placed on a MVFR low ceiling with patchy fog/haze impacting all of the non-coastal inland terminals. Days will become partially cloudy and warm into the lower 70s with an onshore breeze.
Upper ridging that is extending from the Bahamas N-NW over the eastern U. This ridge will slowly progress eastward through the weekend as a deep upper low and associated trough moves into the Midwestern states.
Forecast is in good shape, clouds will likely persist through the day keeping temperatures a bit cooler than yesterday, but still seasonably warm. /issued 559 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ The Mid-South currently is still on the back side of a ridge situated over eastern CONUS. Therefore, with a slightly weaker ridge and more cloud coverage, temperatures are forecast to be slightly lower for highs today with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-upper 60s.
High pressure at surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather. Low level moisture increases will mean min temps will be just a bit milder Friday morning, while highs in the lower 60s in the Valley will continue to prevail.
/Issued 1027 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ A cold front is currently located across Osage and Pawnee Counties in northeast Oklahoma this morning.
1036 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Currently - High pressure centered along the Atlantic coast is responsible for gentle to moderate northeast breezes across much of the Florida Keys this morning. Short Term Update - High pressure will remain aligned over the Atlantic states keeping the local pressure gradient fairly tight. In addition, a subtle inverted trough is expected to rotate westward around the ridge today pushing winds up a bit while they clock more east northeast. In general, high pressure over the Atlantic states will maintain a gentle to moderate, predominately northeast flow today. Finally, a subtle low level trough will press westward across our area today and winds are expected to strengthen moderately and shift more east northeasterly.
A shallow cold front was located along a line between Springdale, AR southwestward to Okmulgee, OK and Eufaula, OK at the time of writing. This cold front has generally brought a sharp decrease in temperatures within the first two hours of passing before stabilizing thanks to increasing clouds and a descending cloud deck starting to be observed. At the time of this writing (0220Z), McAlester observed a drop in visibility to 6SM most likely due to drizzle or mist occurring ahead of the incoming cold front.
Meanwhile, a large deep upper level trough of lower pressure was centered over Southern California. As this large upper trough continues to shift east tonight and tomorrow into Arizona and Mexico, it may cause showers to develop through Friday as it pulls plenty of gulf moisture into West Central Texas.
Expect MVFR conditions to develop at KMLC and KFSM to the south of a shallow cold front. /Issued 337 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ Shallow cold front along Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon will continue a slow progression southward overnight. Forcing continues to intensify through Friday night with the warm front likely lifting through the remainder of the fcst area and temps steady or slowly warming through the night. Timing of primary upper trough has continued to slow in operational model runs and given this persistent trend the fcst will adjust accordingly.
Subsidence beneath this feature will yield dry conditions and warm air advection the low-levels will boost temperatures back into the 40s for most locations. This moisture begins to overspread the area beginning Friday night as surface warm front lifts north across the state.
710 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 The deep layer ridge is along the East Coast, trough along the West Coast which has been a consistent story this winter.
229 PM MST Thu Dec 26 2019 An upper level trough will move through the area through the weekend, keeping temperatures generally near seasonal normals with little if any precipitation.
The closed low will lift into an open trough across Arizona by Friday, allowing showers to spread further north into the central mountains and eventually northern mountains along the Divide.
421 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Water vapor imagery was revealing positive tilt trof over the western CONUS with a closed circulation aloft continuing to dig along the southern CA coastline. Downstream then a well amplified ridge prevailed over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended across southern WI/northern MO/s-central KS.
845 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing temperatures closer to normal for Friday before warm air moves back into Illinois for the weekend.
337 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Shallow cold front along Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon will continue a slow progression southward overnight. Forcing continues to intensify through Friday night with the warm front likely lifting through the remainder of the fcst area and temps steady or slowly warming through the night. Timing of primary upper trough has continued to slow in operational model runs and given this persistent trend the fcst will adjust accordingly.
535 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing temperatures closer to normal for Friday before warm air moves back into Illinois for the weekend.
/issued 126 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ Upper trough approaching will bring wind and increasing chances of rain to the area.
/issued 200 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ A relatively weak cold front from near Stillwater to Watonga to Arnett will continue to advance south tonight. However, given the proximity to freezing, we have included wording to suggest the possibility that freezing rain might occur.
Another mild day is ongoing with temperatures presently in the low to mid 60s areawide. As the isentropic ascent lifts northward Friday night, the low clouds may start to shift northward. However, still some uncertainty with how fast the low clouds will depart, so that leads to uncertainty on low temperatures as the degree of clearing will have a direct impact on expected lows for Friday night. For now, will go somewhere on the milder side of guidance with the thought that the low clouds may be a bit more stubborn to depart.
427 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Water vapor imagery was revealing positive tilt trof over the western CONUS with a closed circulation aloft continuing to dig along the southern CA coastline. Downstream then a well amplified ridge prevailed over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended across southern WI/northern MO/s-central KS.
GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: An upper level trough will move through the area through the weekend, keeping temperatures generally near seasonal normals with little if any precipitation.
758 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 USAF 915 MHZ Cape Wind profilers indicate low level easterly flow to 20-25 knots in the lowest 1-4 kft layer this evening with 00Z Tampa sounding indicating low level easterly flow to 20 knots beneath the base of the inversion around 7500 ft.
916 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues tonight.
852 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 The Florida Keys area and coastal waters are sitting under the southern periphery of a large ridge centered along the eastern seaboard and southeast CONUS. As was the case last evening, the lower boundary layer appears to be decoupled from above, in low shear laminar flow.
Cold front continues to slowly sag south with colder temperatures north of the boundary. /issued 200 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019/ A relatively weak cold front from near Stillwater to Watonga to Arnett will continue to advance south tonight. However, given the proximity to freezing, we have included wording to suggest the possibility that freezing rain might occur.
Water vapor imagery was revealing positive tilt trof over the western CONUS with a closed circulation aloft continuing to dig along the southern CA coastline. Downstream then a well amplified ridge prevailed over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended across southern WI/northern MO/s-central KS.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with deep layer dry air above 850mb.
A low pressure system moving across Arizona will spread moisture into southern through east-central Utah tonight through Friday. A closed upper low is currently centered over the Cali/Baja border this evening, and will be tracking east-northeast across Arizona through the day tomorrow. Southern Utah is currently under the diffluent region of this low, and as a result, thickening clouds have been noted on satellite and obs. As the aforementioned upper low continues to move inland overnight and into tomorrow, a deformation axis extending northeast of the low becomes better defined. Due to cold air already in place at the low levels, precipitation type is expected to primarily be in the form of snow. Most valleys will see some minor accumulations (Trace to 2 inches) through tomorrow, with higher amounts in the higher terrain.
Two distinct areas of IFR or blo potential, one just behind the shallow cold front across far NW AR, and the other across SE OK ahead of the front. A shallow cold front was located along a line between Springdale, AR southwestward to Okmulgee, OK and Eufaula, OK at the time of writing. This cold front has generally brought a sharp decrease in temperatures within the first two hours of passing before stabilizing thanks to increasing clouds and a descending cloud deck starting to be observed. At the time of this writing (0220Z), McAlester observed a drop in visibility to 6SM most likely due to drizzle or mist occurring ahead of the incoming cold front.
301 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Cooler air will overspread the area today into tonight behind a cold front.
High pressure at the surface and aloft continues tonight. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 48 66 57 68 / 10 10 10 50 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 44 65 53 67 / 10 10 10 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 61 46 64 53 66 / 10 10 10 40 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 40 64 47 66 / 10 10 10 20 90.
/issued 710 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019/ The deep layer ridge is along the East Coast, trough along the West Coast which has been a consistent story this winter.
245 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Areas of patchy fog/drizzle will continue this morning as shallow cold front stalls in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Warm front will begin to lift back north through the area tonight in response to approaching storm system moving through the central /southern Rockies.
At this time expect cloud cover to hold on for most areas tonight, with erosion possible across southeast Oregon behind passage of a weak upper trough. Northwest flow aloft in the wake of this trough should further erode the mid-low level clouds on Friday.
This occurs as a cold upper low moves into ern AZ by 00Z/Sat with the assocd 110kt upper-level jet across central NM. Still there is enough of a set up with the increasing presence of the strong upper-level jet and cold front for likely PoPs across PB and probably Lower Trans Pecos too. Otherwise the High Wind Watch for the GDP-Davis Mtns looks good. A secondary shrtwv trof will follow in the nw flow aloft Sun AM and a few -SHSN may move into Lea/Gaines Co? Said shrtwv trof will usher in a secondary surge of colder air Sun and highs struggle to approach L50s. By late Wed a closed low will have moved INVOF Baja and then fill as it moves e into Thur.
1116 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing temperatures closer to normal for Friday before warm air moves back into Illinois for the weekend.
445 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Cooler air will overspread the area today into tonight behind a cold front.
Today, a weak cold front will approach the area, stalling out around the Ohio River this afternoon and then eventually pushing back north as a warm front by Saturday morning. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday due to increased low level clouds, but are still expected to reach into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Short wave trough will pass through today and should break up the low clouds even more. The trough will bring scattered snow showers to northern mountains. A Pacific warm front will bring a chance of light snow Saturday night.
Surface cold front has slid south to the Arkansas Ozarks, with foggy conditions just shy of our area across the Missouri Ozark Plateau. Look for scattered showers to develop and spread across the area well-ahead of a cold front later tonight into midday Saturday. As the cold front moves through the forecast area Saturday evening, expect a quick-moving band of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, with isolated embedded thunderstorms within this activity.
Improving marine conditions as high pressure begins to move away from the area and the pressure gradient weakens.
424 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Cold front currently extends from Bad Axe to Owosso and on down into Indiana. Temperatures today have already peak and will fall during the morning after fropa before becoming near steady in the upper 30s north to the low 40s south as cold air advection offsets diurnal heating. High pressure to slide through tonight producing mostly clear skies and light winds. Southeasterly return flow around departing high pressure will bring warm temperatures again for this time of year with highs in the 40s. Large powerful trough over the southwest U.
524 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Poor flying conditions continue across all terminals, and will through most of the TAF period until around 0900 UTC for KLBB and KPVW, and 1100 UTC for KCDS as a cold front will move through the region during that time.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
419 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 High pressure will ridge across the area through the weekend with easterly flow remaining in place through Saturday.