Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
351 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW IN MOST AREAS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AREAD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
616 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
224 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100.
115 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE LOW-MID 70S.
205 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. BUT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
134 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK TROUGH WAS NOTED FROM WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL LA INTO S TX WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 700 MB TEMPS NOTED AT CRP AND WEAK RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE TX COAST FROM THE EAST. THE 850/700 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 70 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S DOES LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTH.
MAY SEE SOME BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS WILL COME TOWARD MID- MORNING TUESDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE OVERSPREADING THE ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY MORNING WILL VEER WINDS TWD NNW. DEEP BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
344 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Water vapor imagery showing strong negatively tilted upper trough spinning across the Southern High Plains this morning.
UNDER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 4000 TO 5000 FEET. A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH WILL LIFT LOW SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
the cooler mins will be across west central Kansas.
/ISSUED 839 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
230 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
An upper low was lifting northeast into Southeast Colorado/far Southwest Kansas/Western Oklahoma Panhandle per latest water vapor imagery late this evening. Drier air beginning to wrap into the low. Low temps in the 40s for Northeast Oklahoma to the low 50s for Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas will be possible. associated with the upper low lifting across the Central Plains. Southwesterly winds should increase with gusts in the 30 to near 40 mph range ahead of an associated cold front to the upper low. The cold front looks to move into/through the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening with the gusty winds continuing out of the west to northwest.
WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PROGRESSING FURTHER NORTHEAST TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP HERE AND WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL QG FORCING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CO. ENERGY STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM WESTERN KS TO EASTERN NEB DURING THE DAY.
211 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 1002 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY RAISING THE HIGHS ABOUT ONE DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARING THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
356 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
322 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW.
1103 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
143 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
338 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW STRETCHES ACROSS CROSS COUNTY ARKANSAS TO NEAR SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. A WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS IS SITTING SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG THUS SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WOULD NOT BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
1215 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 916 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND IN LOCATIONS TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE SFC WARM FRONT CAN BE FOUND JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
1242 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
308 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. NOW THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER ON THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF COLORADO AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALL FLURRIES SHOULD END AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA.
352 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Potent upper level low continues to lift northeast across the corridor of enhanced lift now in place over northeast OK will also quickly shift northeast of the area later this morning. Both RUC/HRRR have consistently forecast dew points mixing into the lower 20s across SE OK and into NW AR. Wind speeds will be somewhat lighter but still meet the low end of criteria. Cold front will sweep across the area late today with colder airsettling in for tonight.
THERE IS SOME WEAK VORTICITY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. THINK LOWS WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST. A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STEER TWO DISTINCT EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS/WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION.
347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains so have issued a wind warning for there as well. The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande.
At 00z Tuesday a -31C 500mb low/trough was located across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Another upper level trough was located across Idaho. An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through the overnight. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts from Scott City to WaKeeney. Focusing farther south, a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the low. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope moves in.
345 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TEXAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. A FAIRLY NICE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE MIX DOWN OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN CORRIDOR WILL KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE. TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS IT COMING ACROSS BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z.
1002 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY RAISING THE HIGHS ABOUT ONE DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARING THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
222 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DYNAMIC UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KS WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE SEEING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE FORM OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
1005 PM PST MON FEB 1 2016 Tonight an upper trough will slowly exit the region, with a chance of snow showers lingering in the east.
408 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
1156 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW.
854 PM PST MON FEB 1 2016 Tonight an upper trough will slowly exit the region, with a chance of snow showers lingering in the east.
OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SD AND IA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER CO BUT AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY AND WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR. WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S. SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LEE TROFFING AND WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AND 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
542 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION: WEAK/BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT OVERALL RIDGING UP INTO ONTARIO MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
254 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HACKLEBURG. ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED AS A RESULT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WORKS TOWARDS THE AREA.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY ADDS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. THIS FEATURE IS TOO WEAK TO PUSH THROUGH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS NE OREGON AND N-CENTRAL ID MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN /MTN RIDGELINES/ WHERE SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. A DIGGING GREAT LAKE-TO-OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO PULL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PLATEAU. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE PLATEAU TODAY. WE STILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U. TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE MID STATE.
348 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +7C.
THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND, ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
High pressure ridge will continue to build over the region into Sunday with a slight weakening on Monday.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT TO ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE TOP OF IT. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AND MONDAY. AND TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS.
skies are forecast to begin to clear out as a ridge of high pressure builds from the Southwest U.
138 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 WEAK SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. FLL-MIA AREA SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH IN PBI AREA.
High pressure will remain in control as heights continue to build today.
SFC RIDGING WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 1830Z. SOME CI WAS ALSO SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A TROF OVER EASTERN MT AND CENTRAL SD. THE SD TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE MT TROF REACHES THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SFC RIDGING HOWEVER. THOSE SAME UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MERGES WITH THE TROF AHEAD OF IT IN WI BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A WAA PATTERN TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER.
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL. CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS ON TO THE EAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW AS OF 1930Z ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S. CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND BLUEGRASS REGION. SOME STEEP RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
Fairly weak pressure gradients associated with the high will bring light winds ranging from northeasterly to southeasterly. primarily I-72 northward where the lightest winds are occurring in close proximity to the high center. soundings indicate fog will be fairly shallow and patchy unless temperatures cool into the low 40s. cooler than expected at this time.
659 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION INTO CWA TO AID IN MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF WITH EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SIMILARLY COOL AS THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL BOUNCE OFF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO WEAR IT DOWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND SOME 30S INTO THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE SEE A SURFACE LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH FORM UP TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA. WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS.
Cooler air associated with the disturbance will keep most locations in the 60s on Monday.
144 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HELD ON TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR NOW (MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER HIGHS NEAR 70F). RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS PD. THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED FM THE LAKES NEWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND WILL ERODE OUT QUICKLY W/MODERATING TEMPS BACK ABV NORMAL BY TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS IN COOLER AIR. RAIN CHANCES TO FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME TO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN BAJA CA. MODELS AGREE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS SOCAL. THE 12Z MODEL TREND IS MOVING THE LOW ONSHORE FURTHER S AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
SO I EXPECT TO SEE A FLAT COLD FRONT DROP INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AND THUS KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
The cold front came thru KMAF at around 1515Z this morning, and has stalled over the lower Trans Pecos. Using the more consistent low-res models, as civic high pressure continues sinking south, civic flow should veer to easterly, further slowing the front or even retreating back north a bit overnight. This will enhance upslope flow over the higher terrain out west, where area radars indicate convection has been occurring all day. Therefore, we've concentrated highest chances there, on the assumption that the cold front will retreat slightly overnight. Otherwise, models build the ridge back in in the extended, w/temps back abv normal by Monday.
637 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
LIFTING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STOUT ULJ CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALL HELP PROVIDE BACKGROUND SUPPORT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT INCREASED INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP SECURE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
125 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 BEHIND A COLD FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BUILDING ATM LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD CURTAIL CLOUD FORMATION WITH PERSISTENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TRANSITION IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM ZONAL TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THRU 21/12Z WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF PATCHES OF BKN CI ALOFT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PLATEAU. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE PLATEAU TODAY. WE STILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U. TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE MID STATE.
141 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER, DRY WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT SOME LINGERING EARLY MORNING STRATUS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY NIGHT THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRY, COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TO DIP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.