Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN MN. LEADING TO FURTHER DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
935 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2015 Cold front has passed completely through North-central Montana, with light to locally moderate snowfall developing behind the front. Canadian cold front continues to move south through central Montana and will move through southwest Montana early this afternoon.
An upper low was west of El Paso, moving slowly southeast. A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing gusty north winds by noon. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today's, despite cold air advection. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the first half of the week.
202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.
128 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE SYSTEM ON COURSE AS FCST TO GO AROUND THE EDGE OF A BUILDING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THUS LIMITED IMPACTS FOR OUR FCST AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. ON THE HIGH END. WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER SOUTH. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS SENDING IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO TEXAS PRODUCING CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
319 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015 12z Models continue the ongoing trend for warmer/wetter and even flirt with some instability, elevated, with 30 K's into srn ptns FA. The cold air is really taking awhile to slam down the back side, around the Low, and the moisture is all but departed. We'll carry a changeover flurry chance though, just due to the strength of the cold air/high pressure that works into the FA in its wake.
1241 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO HOLD OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THE SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN CORNER OF NV EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR PUMPING THE MOISTURE INTO INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW RELAXES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PASSES OVER THE AREA.
Sunday and Sunday night moisture will increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with a chance of snow for the lower elevations.
A 90 KNOT JET MAX WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AT 12Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA. AS COLDER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (WHICH EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON). HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PHASES WITH DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. STEADY EARLY ON THEN FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OH WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT STILL OVER THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. THE CYCLONE TRACKS FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
A cold front will enter northern portions of the region mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond this TAF cycle. This precipitation is occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level low pressure system centered across western Arizona. There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead of the upper low. By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the northern portion transitions into a trough. Precipitation chances will be on the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
The Ohio River Valley will be positioned under amplified NW flow aloft today and most of tonight on the back side of a sharp trough. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure will settle over the area.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
240 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WE WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH).
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED RIVER OVER US. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH JUST A BIT OF SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES DROP SLIGHTLY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASOSONABLY COLD.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
LLVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL- RISE COUPLET. AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALL POINT TO HIGH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG. A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FIRE UP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY / SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE OK INTO WESTERN AR.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COOLER DAYS. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF, SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 20S WITH LOWER 30S IN THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS OF NE PA.
WITH VORTICITY SPOKING THRU THE MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS -RW/-SW MAINLY SEMO THIS MORNING.
CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA.
GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST THREE GUST OBSERVATIONS AS FOLLOWS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH COOLER. THIS COMBINED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CUTTING OFF ANY COOLER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL GET SOME REINFORCEMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW COMING ONTO THE COAST AND SHOULD REACH THE CASCADES BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z.
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015 04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AS WELL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES. PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/ WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next 24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW. However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps Sat/Sun, w/Sun especially feeling like late May. Forecast soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end. Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at KMAF at around 23Z Sun.
500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
432 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER FUEL MOISTURE SO NO WARNING THERE THOUGH THE LIVERMORE AREA WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AREAS IN THE WARNING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.
138 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS AND COMPOSITE RADAR ARE SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER FRANKLIN AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MEETING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND TAPERING OFF.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
although the higher resolution QPF progs suggest the precip ends by 06z. and it would have been a warmer day if it were'nt for the Delta Breeze kicking in today. degrees cooler than DTS. A cooler day is expected on Sat in the wake of the front moving through the area tonite. resulting in warmer max temps in the Carquinez area. JHM Upper level ridge axis will continue to shift east as trough approaches from offshore. Much like previous waves, energy will weaken as trough moves onshore and moisture will be limited.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
A cold front is crossing the region this morning causing some showers and gusty winds. The first bout of winds will last less than an hour and will arrive with the front, then winds will increase again this afternoon as the heat of the sun mixes the lower atmosphere. Interstate 90 from Garrison Junction past Deer Lodge will be a very difficult stretch of road due to the very erratic nature of the cross winds on the highway. Winds will decrease this evening setting up a cooler and breezy Sunday, though temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees above average.
151 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY. WHILE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING ACROSS LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING MID LEVEL COLD CORE WITH THIS TROUGH AND ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER KEPT MOST AREAS AT 10F OR HIGHER AS RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED W/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA.
348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOW 20S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MS VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS KY SUNDAY EVENING.
A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS. UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER RIDGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY. COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL. SO WILL GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WEST. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER. MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MAINTAINING THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
This is where temperatures will remain the coolest today with highs only in the lower 40s but where sunshine does make an appears across southeast Kansas. The highly amplified pattern will begin to flatten somewhat starting on Sunday. Another weak trough or wind shift will move through late Sunday. Temperatures will be more seasonable Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE NEAR OR AT FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST AREA EXCEPT IN EASTERN PORTIONS ON NW WI AND THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF BAKER COUNTY SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES PAST SUPPORTED BY FAST EWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. MODELS TAKE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR IDAHO ZONES BY 18Z FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST/ NORTHWEST WINDS.
ALOFT - RIDGING REACHED FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SPRAWLED DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST TRAILED A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND FLATTENS SOME WHILE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF TODAY THEN TAKES A SOUTHEASTWARD TACK. THE LOWS SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FROST.
538 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015 A well defined upper short wave trough diving south through the Midwest is bringing light mixed precipitation to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.
518 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
The high pressure ridge has shifted eastward as an approaching trough moves towards the Pacific NW. Temperatures will trend cooler than yesterday, but still remain above normal as valley highs range upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain in the 60s & 70s. Temperatures warm back up by 2-4 degrees on Sunday with weak ridging over NorCal.