Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA. INDICATING POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN CWA (TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SURFACE TEMPS). DURING AN EARLIER UPDATE I ADDED FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE MENTION AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON AT THIS POINT TO STRAY FROM THIS FORECAST. COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
/ISSUED 936 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. /ISSUED 627 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS EAST AND SETTLES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING COOL/DRY EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MOIST UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CA HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH A HEALTHY DOSE OF PRECIPITATION.
207 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST.
A WEAK AND VERY SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS WE HEAD FOR ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT 10000 FEET TO THE TROPOPAUSE AS THEY CIRCULATE AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD TUESDAY. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES IS BECOMING EVIDENT WITH IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE MID- MISSISIPPI VALLEY WHERE STRONG LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING.
Areas south and west of a Joplin to Cassville line may see temps in the lower 90s before the boundary shifts south of the area. This, along with cooler high pressure will bring a needed cooling trend for the week with highs in the 80s and overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 60s. A cold front was moving through the region this morning producing MVFR to IFR flight conditions for terminals across the Ozarks this morning. Conditions will improve for the overnight hours tonight as high pressure moves into the region behind the front.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 73 90 69 / 60 50 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 70 87 66 / 60 60 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 71 87 64 / 60 60 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 67 83 62 / 60 60 30 10.
745 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 AVIATION COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 230 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2015/ WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTH FLOW THEN RESUMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS OFF THE WEST COAST.
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THOUGH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-103 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AND THERE ARE A FEW RIPPLES THAT COULD COME OVER THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY VARIABLE TODAY DEPENDING ON IF A COLD FRONT CAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AROUND THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY WILL GYRATE WEST-NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFY FORCING FRONT TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH A DOMINEERING UPPER RIDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING WHILE THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY MAINTAIN A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAX OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS IS REACHED. A QUIET START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY THU/FRI.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING WEATHER GENERALLY WARM WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INDICATED MOST BY THE GFS AND GEM REGIONAL MODEL. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REIGN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST AS UPPER RIDGING WILL PROMOTE WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE MODELS DO PERIODICALLY GENERATED CONVECTION ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARY RIDGING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TODAY OUT AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES STEADY RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 4-6 MILES BEFORE 12Z.
925 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH WILL ALLOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH BOTH BOUNDARIES THEN MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ON THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
843 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY AND THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH FROM MO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ONE THAT WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS. A FEW DAYS BACK THE FAVORED SOLUTION WAS BREAKING DOWN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U. THE GFS/GEM BRING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THE LIKELY RESULT. THE GFS WANTS TO SLIDE A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/THU.
THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z TODAY. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE FRONT ENOUGH TO NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY. WHEN THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PARKED OVER TEXAS. STARTING TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OR EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CLOSE TO THE MIDSOUTH YESTERDAY HAD RETROGRADED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY WEAK 20KTS. AND NEAREST TO THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AR AND CENTRAL MS. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LAG 12 TO 18 HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT.
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. KETCHAM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING TAKING PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OF INLAND TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A WARM-UP IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO DROP INTO MID/UPPER 50S WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA HAVE HELD STEADY IN THE LOWER 60S. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TODAY.
1105 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
913 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON MONDAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME BUT NOT ALL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. WILL SIDE ON THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY VARIABLE TODAY DEPENDING ON IF A COLD FRONT CAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AROUND THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY WILL GYRATE WEST-NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFY FORCING FRONT TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH A DOMINEERING UPPER RIDGE.
/ISSUED 413 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE CWFA IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. KETCHAM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
857 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 UPDATE COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH THOUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ.
BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT STRONG WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED TO THE WEST. THE EXTEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE H5 RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1153 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN AND THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TUESDAY.
1043 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015 RAPID INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER SE WI INTO IA WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTEROON GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDESTORMS THERE AS WELL. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
/12Z TAFS/ NO MAJOR CONCERNS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
WITH TROFFING NR THE COASTS AND RIDGING MID- CONTINENT. AND TUESDAY REMNANTS OF WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROF WERE ACRS THE AREA BUT HAVE BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TNGT AND TUE.
AND MANY SITES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 90S. 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BUT EXPECT STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER LAND AREAS TODAY. A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PARKED OVER TEXAS. STARTING TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OR EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
/ISSUED 408 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015/ WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTH FLORIDA. SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS CONSIST OF EXPANSIVE ULVL RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH COASTAL TROUGHS.
THE CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AT THIS TIME, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY MAINTAIN A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAX OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS IS REACHED. A QUIET START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY THU/FRI.
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 5" AND SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE POCONOS DOWN OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THIS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MADE TO STRENGTHEN AND BROADEN IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STACKING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AND 80 OR 81 THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND STILL MILD TEMPS AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A NICE/LESS HUMID DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. WITH COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN MTNS.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS MOVED IN ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH A MID LVL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
1014 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND NEAR THE VORT CENTER/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE OREGON COAST KEEPING OUR AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. KETCHAM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
1009 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SPOTTY SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE H5-H7 TROF AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH CNY/NEPA GENERALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN/TSTMS TAPERING OFF.
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
INLAND AREAS WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH OFFSHORE. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL MEAN COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE TO MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1046 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 A 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALREADY WENT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR SOUTHERN WI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THESE ARE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE FRONT.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WILL VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THUS ALLOWING FOR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ THE CENTER OF THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UPPER HIGH.
1046 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN SD. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CONVERGENCE FORECAST IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER BUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FALLING TO NEAR 60 F.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ABOVE YESTERDAYS TREND WITH MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S. IN TURN THIS ALSO INCREASED THE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN UP TO 104 IN CULLMAN.
FOR LATER TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO. ONE THING THAT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING IS A DENVER CYCLONE WHICH IS A BIT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE SELY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TX AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS.
A strong upper level high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern and continue to bring hot and dry conditions to West Central Texas today. The record should remain, but the high may come within a degree or two of it.
UPPER TROUGH STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH COLD FRONT ALIGNED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF I80. HRRR/RAP/HIRES ARW/NMM ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHRES MODELS DO HINT AT SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1018 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015 UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A LOW SETTLES OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NEAR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND THIS IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE PLUME WILL DISSIPATE AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AS UPPER RIDGE CONT BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH CONTINUED VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS KEEPING HAIL A LESSER CONCERN THAN WIND. AIRMASS ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER AND STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
Any storms that develop will be elevated in the wake of yesterday evening's cold frontal passage, but hail or briefly strong winds are possible with MUCAPE lingering in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and 30-35 kts of deep layer shear supporting weak/transient supercell structures. Strengthening northerly winds this afternoon will gradually allow cooler temperatures and lower humidity to drift in, which will persist into at least midweek.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT 1. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP RIDGING.