Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The first true cold front of the season extends down into central Texas and is projected to move into the lakes region of southeast Texas before the noon hour. Cooler afternoon temps are in store also for the aftn hrs with highs expected into the mid 80s.
Tonight a warm front will develop across the Tennessee Valley, as low pressure moves out of the Central Plains ahead of an upper level low. Also we will to watch for any stronger storms along that warm frontal boundary, but the stronger shear is expected to best more along the Wabash. High pressure will build in behind the front, with ridging also building across the Deep South, which should lead to a drier and warmer end of the work week.
Early morning surface observations show a cold front located along a line from Austin-Bergstrom airport to Hondo to Spofford. All areas can expect gusty north winds today as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Skies are clear other than a few high clouds passing overhead ahead of the approaching trough. Winds are much lighter and temperatures considerably cooler compared to 24 hours ago a surface gradients have relaxed, but the airmass remains very dry with dew points in the 20s and 30s. Upper level trough swings through the PacNW today will brush close enough to NorCal to bring increased afternoon southwest wind gusts for the foothills and mountains.
258 AM MST Tue Oct 10 2017 Weak high pressure will return to the region over the next couple days allowing high temperatures to climb back several degrees above the seasonal average through Wednesday. Near steady high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will then affect the lower deserts each day through the weekend.
220 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure will build into the region for overnight and Tuesday with continuing mild temperatures for October.
During the overnight periods, interior temperatures will cool into the lower to mid 30s for much of the region, warming to the 40s along the immediate coast. Sunny skies, warm daytimes and cool crisp mornings will continue through Wednesday as high pressure slowly weakens. The first trough looks to pass by to our north for the middle of the week, with perhaps a few showers developing across Del Norte County.
Passing high pressure moving over the region today will bring warmer temperatures that will last through the week.
1143 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Early this afternoon, high pressure was centered over the Ohio Valley region, with low pressure from NE Wyoming to near Denver. For tonight, the high will continue slowly east, allowing for some pressure falls, keeping SSE winds up overnight. A sharp H5 trof currently over the NW U. We will be monitoring the approach of an associated cold front trailing SW from the low. The cold front will move across the region Monday night. ridge, and deepening trof over the east 1/2 of the nation. The ensemble mean solutions from the GFS/EC and CMC all depict this evolution in a similar fashion and line up relative well with the mean trof axis positioning each day.
345 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 As the main low/trough shifts through southern ND and northern SD today, large scale ascent will increase and eventually overlap a strengthening low level frontogenesis field mainly across the James River Valley.
A cold front will move south across the terminals Monday evening and overnight, shifting winds to the north. Temperatures this afternoon are mainly in the low to mid 70s. For Monday night, a strong cold front is still expected to move through during the evening through overnight hours.
The first cold front will move into the area Tuesday afternoon and should be sluggish but consistent with its forward motion making it through the area by Tuesday evening. As the strongest part of the subtropical jet begins to move out, the northern branch will dump a good bit of energy into the back side of the already developed upper trough causing it to stand and even dig southward.
330 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 One more day of much above normal temperatures Monday with a strong cold front poised just north of the forecast area with mainly zonal flow aloft with low level thermal ridging in place. It will turn much colder tonight and Tuesday as a large upper level trough amplifies across the western half of the nation and sends a strong cold front through the forecast area.
Gusty south southwest winds will continue through the morning in advance of a well advertised southeastward-moving cold front currently in central NE/KS, advecting in and mixing down increasing daytime temperatures despite thick daytime cloud cover. Have raised highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s CWA-wide given the starting point in the lower to mid 60s. Once the forcing from the front and the upper wave become juxtaposed, the light warm-sector and frontal precipitation will become enhanced and lapse rates will steepen, allowing more robust showers and a few scattered storms to develop along the cold front.
High pressure will strengthen across the mid-Atlantic, and heights will rise as weak upper level ridging moves over the area. Weak coastal troughing is expected to develop later today and into tonight; isolated showers are possible across the coastal waters.
131 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 High pressure remains over the region through Monday, sliding offshore Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure will shift east of the area today. A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday night.
Upper trof over Great Basin this afternoon with associated cold front moving through northwest Utah. Still mainly high level moisture streaming through Colorado ahead of the trof. Across lower elevations the main impact will be the gusty winds with the front and behind the trof through Monday afternoon with strong QG descent/subsident airmass. Winds will decrease by mid to late afternoon Monday over the plains as high pressure dropping down from the north will turn winds to the north and northeast. Strong downward QG forcing will ease Monday evening with departure of the 700-400 mb trough and transition to a drier north-northwesterly flow aloft. The last of the snow showers in the high country and the smattering of snow flurries across the state's northeast corner should come to an end by around midnight with no addition accumulation.
/issued 301 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Another beautiful day of above-normal temperatures is occurring across West Texas and Southeast new Mexico, courtesy of weak upper- lvl ridging over the central CONUS the past few days. Monday night, the fun begins as a strong cold front associated w/the aforementioned upper trough backdoors into the area, w/fropa at KMAF around 05Z Tue. As this transpires, another trough is forecast to develop over the wrn CONUS, and slide across the SW CONUS into the region by midweek.
As flow veers more easterly later today, several models show a very weak disturbance rotating through from the Bahamas in the low level flow.
324 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Pressure gradient to increase today ahead of a cold front that will move across the region overnight. Convection, in the form of showers and isolated thunderstorms, is forecast to increase in coverage today due to increased instability from rapid height falls in the mid-levels ahead of an approaching upper- trough. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s today. High pressure behind the front will bring cooler temperatures overnight with southeast Oklahoma expected to fall into the lower 40s. On Tuesday, areas north of Interstate 20 will see highs only reaching the mid 50s as high pressure begins to become better established.
Other continuing targets of opportunity include the warmer than blend temps today, with some 70s, or close to it, scattered about, and the higher than blended average winds both today and tmrw, including gusts.
For this update, expanded freezing rain/sleet possibility in the south a bit tomorrow morning. WPC thinks 12z GFS was an outlier with its farther west track toward Fergus Falls/Wadena with the low.
310 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Water vapor imagery early today indicated an upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies. Will have to watch for the potential for a line of showers or low-topped storms to form later in the afternoon along the cold front as it sweeps eastward, especially across western Wisconsin. Strong low-level cold advection will quickly develop behind the cold front late today and this evening. There's good agreement in the general pattern evolution through the week into the weekend with a cold northwest flow pattern across the area in between an amplified western CONUS ridge and the eastern trough.
Surface and upper ridging is moving east of the southern Appalachians allowing return flow of south to southwesterly winds Today and Tonight. For tonight, increasing southwest winds ahead of a strong cold front will pull moisture back into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Increasing southwest low-level jet will also produce breezy conditions across the higher elevations early Tuesday morning.
A strong cold front associated with this system will push eastward through Lower Michigan tonight. Lift with the low level jet moves off to the north. The cold front tracks through tonight.
332 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Dry weather continues today behind departing high pressure, with a warmer afternoon. A cold front brings rain late tonight and Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of the approaching pattern-changing cold front will provide high cloudiness of varying thickness today. Low pressure will become vertically stacked as it rides across the western Great Lakes and into Ontario. The cold front is still progged to cross the area on Tuesday.
Update: Short wave just off the N coast at press time will be working Swd on the backside (W side) of the interior West trof tonight and Mon resulting in tight Nly pressure gradients and gusty Nly winds. First widespread freezing overnite min temps possible as well in the Valley as winds subside Tue/Wed. JHM Cold front has moved east of the area and drier air is moving into the region.
1225 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 High pressure remains in place through Monday. Strong cold front Tuesday.
/issued 243 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ The upper trough over the Rockies will amplify as it moves east through the week. Downsloping northwest winds will keep temperatures warm for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 60s northwest to the upper 70s in the Rolling Plains tomorrow. Guidance has trended slightly warmer for Tuesday night with lows from the low 20s in the far southwestern Panhandle to near 30 off the Caprock.
Surface ridging will begin to move east of the southern Appalachians with return flow on the back-side of the high producing south to southwest winds by afternoon.
Winds are already ramping up across the area with gusts over 50 mph at times in mountains and nearing 40 mph over parts of the lower elevations. Gusts to around 60 mph will be possible in the mountains with gusts to around 50 mph possible at the lower elevations, primarily along and west of the I-25 corridor. Monday morning, a Pacific cold front will blast through the area.
232 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore late today.
/issued 807 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017/ High pressure to north of the region will maintain easterly flow tonight, gusting to 10-15 KT along the immediate Atlantic coast. On Monday, with dry air still filtering in, expect another benign weather day with maximum temperatures in the low 80s, a couple degree above seasonal norms.
Another system moving through the larger scale trough late in the week may bring light snow to the area. One last warm day can be expected across central Indiana today ahead of the approaching cold front. Expect widespread showers tonight as the cold front blasts through the area.
146 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2017 Strong and gusty east winds are expected across the ridges today into Tuesday morning with choppy conditions expected on Lake Tahoe. High pressure amplifies over the region this week bringing inversions, very cold nights, light winds, and reduced air quality for valleys. Weak trough across the Sierra and Nevada paired with high pressure intensifying along the west coast will establish a strong east-west temperature gradient across the Sierra tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level trough, currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will cause an area of low pressure to develop over western Nebraska late tonight. Precipitation may begin as rain, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, before changing over to all snow. With a strong push of cold air, the threat for sleet and freezing rain will be fairly limited. That pattern will feature a west coast/western conus ridge and downstream eastern conus trof.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 54 60 38 / 0 30 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 50 60 36 / 0 20 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 64 51 59 35 / 0 30 90 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 42 60 34 / 0 10 80 80.
Upper level trough continues to exit the region. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build and amplify off the coast on Monday for cold dry conditions.
The focus through Monday will be the passage of a strong cold front associated with an potent upper level storm system approaching the area. The upper system will move into Nebraska/South Dakota towards sunrise Monday and cold front will begin making its way into central Nebraska overnight and through most of the forecast area by sunrise. As the pattern shifts with a large upper trough moving into the east CONUS, cooler weather will ensue.
Several variances beyond with respect to additional northern Canadian vorticies and disruptions into mean James Bay into western Great Lakes trof.
Southwest surface winds will trend to west and northwest with the approach of a pre-frontal trof, and then turn more north and increase with the frontal passage. Surface winds will shift to northwest with pre-frontal trof between 11z and 15z Monday, with speeds increasing as true cold front arrives between 14z and 19z. North and northeast surface winds behind cold front expected to gust into the 25 to 30 kt range. A cold front is still on schedule to push through the area Monday afternoon which will drop temps tomorrow into the 50s and 60s from the 70s and 80s today.
Little to no accumulation is expected, and with surface temperatures likely at or above freezing, no impacts are anticipated on the roadways.
1114 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Overall, the synoptic scale still appears similar with strong cold front associated upper trough over the intermountain west shifting east into the plains. Cold front is expected to work through the area in the morning hours with temperatures falling behind the front. As long wave troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the CONUS, cold air will have settled into much of the Northern US by Tuesday.
Surface cold front is currently draped through central SD with the parent upper low emerging into the northern plains. These winds continue to be well advertised as on the high end of climatology in the ensembles.
Low clouds and some patchy drizzle and fog may try to move in overnight as leading short wave trough energy over northern TX/OK/KS lifts northeast, combined with the 140-180m height falls associated with the main mid-level trough moves into western Nebraska. The RAP13/OpHRRR/ExpHRRR have backed off on the low clouds today across southeast Nebraska ans southwest Iowa today, but still skirt some low clouds in the southeast overnight (09Z) as surface dewpoints rise into the mid 50s+. A surge in drier air/pre- frontal trough will make temperatures difficult to forecast and elevated fire danger conditions. The combinations of the falling temperatures to below freezing could result in some slick spots on elevated surfaces near the SD border.
312 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 A cold front is poised to sweep through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this Afternoon into Tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front.
large scale ridging was noted across the eastern United States. and the inverse of that across our western United States where troughing could be found. Southerly flow and moisture profile will continue to increase into Tuesday as the next cold front is slated to move into the area late Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Upper level troughing looks to hang further north of the area. and the upper and lower branches of the troughs do not look to be in phase. let us just mention general thunderstorms with this cold front on Tuesday in agreement with the Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook. Even with passage of the cold front.
This will push a strong cold front into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.
A weather system moving across the western United States will deliver a cold front to northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.
The trailing cold front sweeps through during the evening. The warm surge ahead of the low will push highs today to record or near record levels. The cold front will be reaching our western forecast area toward evening and this will be accompanied by a rather strong mid level short wave.
Cold front approaches northern terminals after 05/00Z with increasing SHRA with highest chance of TSRA along the front. with general amounts between one half and one inch, with Se AR seeing the highest totals.
Tonight, a cold front that is currently located over the Central Plains will move into the Mid-South.
For tonight, the weather will be a little more active as a cold front moves south across the area, around the I-20 corridor by 03Z, along a San Angelo to Brownwood line by 06Z and south of the I-10 corridor or by 11Z. Expect gusty north winds behind the front and much cooler temperatures. Also, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible east of a Brownwood to Junction line due to weak mid to upper level ascent and the cold front.
Fairly quiet weather conditions are then expected for much of the upcoming work week, as a ridge of high pressure slowly starts to build into the region from the west.
This front is supported a very strong upper level jet stream and positively tiled trough to the north and east.
Today Through Tuesday Night Quite the change taking place across not only Arkansas, but much of the nation as a deepening mid level trough makes its way across the Rockies and Great Plains this morning. The surface pressure gradient will tighten in response to the approaching cold front and winds will increase out of the south/southwest, but should stay below wind headline criteria. Timing and severe threat associated with the cold front hasn't changed.
South winds will become gusty later tonight and into the day Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 828 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017/ A little surface boundary is in place across the northern half of the area this evening with high pressure to the north. The boundary will wash out overnight with ridging remaining across the state from the north and northeast as the high center moves off to the NE.
1006 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Strong high pressure will build over the region this upcoming week. Dew points have dropped into the low 20s across much of the region. Surface dew points have dropped down into the lower 20s with low stratus and fog overall less likely than previously though. We will also see a lot of cirrus moving in as high level moisture topples over a ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific.
A south to southwesterly flow will persist across western Kansas tonight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. This will draw warmer air into the area resulting in lows only down into the 40s(F) and possibly the lower 50s(F), particularly across south central Kansas. Much colder air will spill into western Kansas Monday in wake of a strong cold front pushing through the area by early afternoon. Look for highs up into the 50s(F) further south and east with the lower to mid 60s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
An increasing pressure gradient and low-level jet will increase southerly surface winds, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected tonight, along with increasing low-level moisture with dewpoints rising into the lower to middle 50s and stratus developing over the area. The warm weather will last one final day into Monday before a strong cold front moves through the area during the afternoon hours. Chances for precipitation will increase throughout the day, with the highest probability over the southeast half of the CWA. Marginal instability due to cloud cover and weak lapse rates will provide just enough energy for a few thunderstorms to develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, likely in the form of a shallow convective line along the cold front.
while a ridge of high pressure remains anchored along the East Coast. HRRR mixes this high momentum air to the surface between 15z and 16z: however, think this is too quick based on the strength of the inversion. NAM forecast soundings suggest mixing will reach the low-level jet by around midday. Most high-res model guidance suggests scattered showers will develop well ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. Windy and much cooler weather will be on tap for Tuesday in the wake of the exiting front. Once the cold airmass arrives, it will stick around for the remainder of the extended as deep upper troughing establishes itself over the Midwest/Great Lakes.
153 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 High pressure remains in place today. Strong cold front Tuesday.
A transition period will come today, after a sunny weekend, we will see increasing cloud cover and stronger winds ahead of a cold front progged to move through the region Tuesday. Rain showers will linger behind the front for a few more hours, but most models show a dry punch of air in the lower levels that should clear out further precip.
108 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
Upper level flow becomes southwesterly tonight as trough is carved out across the mid section of the country. The attendant surface cold front will swing through the region during the peak heating of the day.
Strong high pressure strengthens on Monday and prevails for the remainder of the week. The main cold front has moved through Nevada and the final decent band of snow is moving through the Elko County. Afternoon temps will be in the 30s, except may not get above freezing for those spots that received accumulating snowfall today.
This will be aided by a quick surge in southerly flow as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of cold front still well to the northwest. Cigs may further deteriorate to IFR/LIFR toward daybreak with some improvement later in the day as stronger winds help to mix out some of the low level moisture. Shower and a few thunderstorms which were numerous and widespread across portions of the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas have really weakened in coverage and intensity as expected and for that reason, have lowered pops back to slight chance/low end chance variety for the remainder of the night.
models are indicating pretty good forcing with the approaching wave and cold front. The main story for this period will be cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions.
Current temperatures are already warmer than average high temperatures for mid-November. A gusty southwest wind will decrease this evening as a cold front approaches. Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will move across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather conditions.
430 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion An upper level trough of low pressure will shift east across the Northern Rockies and Montana today for cool and unsettled conditions.
An upper ridge will build over the area through tonight. High temps will warm into the low to mid 70s.