Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that stretched from Marquette to Waupaca into northeast IA. High pressure was located over north-central ND. The radar mosaic indicated a broken area of showers along and ahead of the cold front with isolated thunderstorms mainly across Upper MI. The slow-moving cold front to still be over eastern WI through late evening before finally shoving into Lake MI. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 40s far north-central WI, to the middle 50s across east-central WI. A weak area of high pressure is forecast to move into northern sections of the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler thanks to a northeast wind. Look for readings to top out in the lower to middle 60s near Lake MI, upper 60s to lower 70s for inland locations.
Drier, warmer and windy as the low level winds turns westerly, helping to advect in drier air at low and mid levels. The flow aloft backs to west southwest in advance of the next approaching trough.
Drier and warmer weather conditions are anticipated for Thursday with highs reaching the upper 90s across the Hill Country and the rest of the area ranging from 100 to 108 degrees.
936 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2019 It will be a bit warmer through Wednesday, with only minor variations near the coast.
Scattered showers and storms look to develop ahead of this upper wave, mainly affecting eastern sections of Nebraska and Kansas for this afternoon with cooler 700mb temps aloft.
As a cold front moves south, winds will become light and northerly across the area.
332 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 With convection exiting eastward and the cold front surging south, expect a mild dry day today. Mild ridging should keep Thursday mostly dry.
At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis stretches over south Florida, with a southwest low-level flow remaining in place. Mid/upper ridging then starts to build over the region on Thursday, although onshore flow will continue, with scattered rain chances expected.
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 As of 08Z Wednesday morning a broad midlevel trough axis remains across the Central US. With the low stratus in-place, do not anticipate widespread dense fog formation. By Thursday, a strong midlevel trough will begin traversing the Central/Northern Rockies. Lee troughing across the Plains will deepen and slowly push southeastward.
Lingering cloud cover and ongoing precip chances will hinder daytime heating to some degree, with afternoon highs only expected to warm into the lower to middle 70s Wednesday afternoon. With time, precip should gradually move off to the east late Wednesday afternoon which should mark the beginnings of a dry period which should last through much of the day on Thursday as highs rebound back into the lower to middle 80s across the lwr Missouri Vly. From this point forward, the name of the game will be warming temperatures and increasing chances for shwrs and storms as a longwave trough begins digging across the western U.
A weak and somewhat diffuse remnant boundary was located across the forecast area this afternoon, and this will be reinforced by a cold front that will move across the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Above the surface, a broad trof was moving into the Plains this afternoon, and this trof will continue to move to the east thru the period, and a weak ridge will begin building across the area late in the period. With the anticipated outflow boundary and cold front moving into the area, and the supporting upper trof, convection should be quick to develop.
/issued 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ * Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible through this evening, accompanied by large to very large hail * Very hot conditions follow late this week Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop once again through this evening across mainly west Texas as an upper level disturbance moves through the ridge and interacts with a moist and very unstable airmass east of a dryline. Low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will allow high temperatures to climb to much above normal values.
The period of heavy rain will be Thu afternoon and evening when the second wave becomes a positively- tilted closed low, which will enhance mid-level frontogenesis and lead to widespread convection with deeper updrafts. Drier and cooler air will arrive Fri morning in the wake of the cold frontal passage and will persist through the day under nwly flow. A ridge is expected to build ewd through the rest of the weekend to keep dry weather in place, but there are hints that upstream convection may round the ridge and impact a portion of our area both Sat and Sun mornings. Regardless, the ridge will provide a rebound in temperature for the region.
This will bring a renewed batch of showers and thunderstorms late to North Central SD, reaching the Mobridge area by 12Z. Severe chances still look on the low side, but if there are isolated strong to severe storms, they'll probably form/occur over the Missouri valley where MLCapes reach 1k j/kg or so in the afternoon, and mid level winds increase leading to a bit better deep layer shear. An expansive upper level low pressure system across the Pacific Northwest at the onset of the term will translate eastward across the northern tier of the CONUS by the end of the week into the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures today will reach the upper 80s, but will be a few degrees cooler for Thursday afternoon behind the weak frontal passage.
/issued 911 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will move through most of the Midsouth by late Wednesday night before weakening.
For tonight, high pressure building in from southern Ontario/Lake Superior pushes that frontal boundary southward into IL/IA. High pressure continues to advect drier air into the area Wednesday into Wednesday night but lingering mid-level frontogenesis will keep a slight chance of showers going during the day across portions of northeast IA into southern WI. Active weather will continue through the weekend as southwest flow increases aloft with deepening trough over the western CONUS.
Widespread high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s are expected this afternoon, with comparatively cool lower 90s across the higher terrain.
252 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Upper level low pressure will move into the western and central Dakotas this morning. Later this afternoon into the evening this upper level low pressure will work farther east and bring a slight increase in chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms to northeast SD into central SD. As for temperatures expecting highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday but high pressure to the east is still influencing the region. As low pressure approaches from the west southerly flow will increase as will cloud cover, so lows will be mild from the mid 50s in northwest IA to around 60 elsewhere.
342 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Weak troughing across the Central Plains will push a cold front through the region later this morning, though the northerly winds will be fleeting. As the trough pulls away, areas on the Caprock will return to west-northwest winds. Northwest flow aloft will set up behind the exiting trough; however, flow across our forecast area will already be flattening, so any storms that develop off the high terrain late this afternoon are expected to remain in the TX Panhandle.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Rain showers and thunderstorms expanded across northern Missouri overnight as isentropic lift increased over a quasi-stationary/slow moving front extending from northeast Missouri southwestward to an area of low pressure in south-central Kansas. The low-level jet will weaken later this morning as it pushes off to the south and east, and the axis of heavy rain should taper off as a result.
As of 08Z Wednesday morning a broad midlevel trough axis remains across the Central US. With the low stratus in-place, do not anticipate widespread dense fog formation. By Thursday, a strong midlevel trough will begin traversing the Central/Northern Rockies. Lee troughing across the Plains will deepen and slowly push southeastward.
Rain chances wl gradually diminish over the FA later tngt and Thu as the aforementioned upr trof shifts E of AR, and a weak CDFNT drops into AR fm the N.
Also mid level trof/vort energy aloft moving eastward over the peninsula from the NE gulf region today.
At the surface, weak low pressure is located across northwest SD with a frontal boundary extending east into southern Minnesota. Upper flow becomes a little more southwesterly late Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible into Thursday night associated with a strong upper low crossing the Northern Rockies.
An upper level trough will approach and move across the Panhandles by this afternoon and evening. Isolated convection is expected to develop by 21Z today over the higher terrain of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Cold front pushed south of the Panhandles and is expected to remain east and south of the forecast area today and tonight.
A low amplitude northwest flow pattern will develop across western Kansas, with the lower tropospheric flow field attempting to readjust to the mid level pattern shift. Mid level temperatures will be a little cooler, and despite the weak low level winds and marginal moisture, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across west central and northwest Kansas in particular.
642 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The upper low across western Canada is propagating toward the northern plains. Latest guidance indicates that ridging (dry airmass) will hold across this region through much of today. Two upper level waves will eject from the main upper low and influence this region through the period. Forcing weakens as it bumps into the ridging across Minnesota by Thursday evening.
455 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Rain showers and thunderstorms expanded across northern Missouri overnight as isentropic lift increased over a quasi-stationary/slow moving front extending from northeast Missouri southwestward to an area of low pressure in south-central Kansas. The low-level jet will weaken later this morning as it pushes off to the south and east, and the axis of heavy rain should taper off as a result.
The sh/ts over the gulf will be mainly along an old trough axis that will remain over the gulf today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 72 84 70 / 50 70 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 71 82 67 / 50 70 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 71 81 68 / 60 70 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 67 79 63 / 70 60 80 60.
A dry cold front passing through the region today will cause some very windy conditions this evening. The Missoula valley is well aligned with the cold front as it moves through to help enhance the winds, and will likely have gusts over 40 mph while the front moves through this evening. In the Bitteroot Valley as the cold front passes in the evening, the frontal inversion may set up conditions favorable for mountain wave winds to affect Highway 93 as a cross wind.
As the wave continues to move east through the day, expect additional development within the region of best forcing/lift within the trough axis. Overnight and into Thursday, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to move east across the CWA with the main area of low pressure.
Numerical guidance holds onto the idea that some of the drier air works in from the southwest beginning 18Z, and with warm ridging aloft likely to reduce mixed layer potential buoyancy.
and Thursday Canadian high pressure was positioned over the western Great Lakes region, including far northern WI, early this morning. Canadian high pressure will dominate our weather through Thursday, with generally dry conditions expected. Suspect that at least patchy fog will redevelop over north central WI again tonight, as the ridge axis will still be situated there.
/issued 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ Weak troughing across the Central Plains will push a cold front through the region later this morning, though the northerly winds will be fleeting. As the trough pulls away, areas on the Caprock will return to west-northwest winds. Northwest flow aloft will set up behind the exiting trough; however, flow across our forecast area will already be flattening, so any storms that develop off the high terrain late this afternoon are expected to remain in the TX Panhandle.
405 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019 A slow cooling trend expected through the end of the week as a low pressure system drops through the Pacific Northwest.
642 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Tempo MVFR cigs are expected over PNC, WWR, and OKC/OUN today as a cold front moves through. /issued 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ With convection exiting eastward and the cold front surging south, expect a mild dry day today. Mild ridging should keep Thursday mostly dry.
A Pacific cold front is pushing through the northern Rockies, ushering in a significantly cooler air mass.
205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Forecast area enjoying a rather pleasant day as high pressure extended from southern Ontario into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across the area tonight into Thursday morning. Warm air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure and warm front approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a chance of elevated showers/isolated storms toward the area by later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
/issued 642 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ Tempo MVFR cigs are expected over PNC, WWR, and OKC/OUN today as a cold front moves through. /issued 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ With convection exiting eastward and the cold front surging south, expect a mild dry day today. Mild ridging should keep Thursday mostly dry.
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 An approaching low pressure system will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through tonight. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms.
Breezy and cooler today, but windy and even cooler Thursday as upper trough carves south from western Canada. Guidance has been trending cooler and now forecasts only 50s and 60s for highs Thursday.
particularly as warm/moist air advection increases ahead of the approaching trough.
These west winds have not been the typical drying west wind, but they extend back west of the New Mexico mountains as well keeping the high terrain quiet today. A low-amplitude upper ridge will move across the area tomorrow, the nearly-zonal mid and upper flow aiding the dryline shifting eastward toward the Caprock escarpment.
902 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019 High pressure aloft across California will bring fair and warmer weather today.
Later tonight focus shifts to weak cold front moving through the region. Pattern turns rather sticky as a upper ridge builds into our area for late in the week.
will continue through Thursday until the passage of a cold front.
The upper low across western Canada is propagating toward the northern plains. Latest guidance indicates that ridging (dry airmass) will hold across this region through much of today. Two upper level waves will eject from the main upper low and influence this region through the period. Forcing weakens as it bumps into the ridging across Minnesota by Thursday evening.
The current trends of CAM models suggest storms will fire along a cold front boundary by the mid afternoon hours. Looking ahead to Thursday, rising heights and a building ridge to our east will result in drier and warmer weather.
Still, some storms may linger into the overnight hours with the highest chances in the eastern FL Big Bend.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): H5 west to east ridging will continue to lie over the area, along with high pressure over the Gulf.
217 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 A broad positively tilted upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Upper level flow transitions from northwest to southwest by Thursday night as an upper level trough digs through the western U.
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Rain showers and thunderstorms expanded across northern Missouri overnight as isentropic lift increased over a quasi-stationary/slow moving front extending from northeast Missouri southwestward to an area of low pressure in south-central Kansas. The low-level jet will weaken later this morning as it pushes off to the south and east, and the axis of heavy rain should taper off as a result.
High pressure aloft is centered over the west gulf this afternoon with ridging stretched into the northwest gulf coast. Tonight storms are expected to push across Northeast Texas and into Louisiana, however the upper ridge is expected to remain in place as well.
603 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Forecast area enjoying a rather pleasant day as high pressure extended from southern Ontario into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across the area tonight into Thursday morning. Warm air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure and warm front approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a chance of elevated showers/isolated storms toward the area by later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
855 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this evening with temperatures from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Later tonight focus shifts to weak cold front moving through the region. Pattern turns rather sticky as a upper ridge builds into our area for late in the week.
That is supported by the lower CAPE values present.
/Issued 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ A broad positively tilted upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Upper level flow transitions from northwest to southwest by Thursday night as an upper level trough digs through the western U.
Skies will become partly cloudy in the late night hours with lows in the lower-mid 70s. Low level ridge axis will remain across south Florida and maintain an offshore (W/SW) flow. With lower storm coverage, hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected even at the coast, though likely short of any records. Ridge axis remains nearly stationary across the southern peninsula so offshore (SW) winds will continue 10 kt across the southern waters and 15 knots northern waters.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 84 70 90 / 60 70 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 81 67 86 / 60 70 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 81 67 87 / 60 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 78 63 82 / 50 60 50 10.
After midnight additional storms may push into the mid-state from the west as a mid level trough moves closer and provides some overnight lift.
By Thursday morning, a dry cold front is expected to move through the region and bring in relatively cooler temperatures and drier air to much of the Pacific Northwest.
After that round, more showers and storms forecast to develop through the day tomorrow as a cold front moves through.
The short wave trough that has been over the area shifts east tonight with some drier air moving in Thu. High pressure with a relaxed gradient across far south FL and the adjacent Gulf waters lifts into the central Gulf Fri and remains there.
The subtropical ridge axis is in the process of strengthening over South Florida at this time.
Morning low clouds continue to move through central Kansas with a departing upper level trough and sun has broke out over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This activity should die off shortly after sunset and the rest of the evening will be quiet with lows in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 314 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): H5 west to east ridging will continue to lie over the area, along with high pressure over the Gulf.
Shower activity will continue to decrease this evening across the area as upper trough shifts off the east coast tonight. Stronger storms are possible over se Ga by late day on Thursday as vertical wind shear increases with the approach of an upper trough to the northwest.
311 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019 A strong cold front will move through Thursday with gusty winds.
These west winds have not been the typical drying west wind, but they extend back west of the New Mexico mountains as well keeping the high terrain quiet today. A low-amplitude upper ridge will move across the area tomorrow, the nearly-zonal mid and upper flow aiding the dryline shifting eastward toward the Caprock escarpment. The upper flow backs to southwest on Friday ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Great Basin which will give the dryline another push, but likely not as far to the east.
438 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A warm and muggy morning is underway across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the upper 70s.
238 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight.
will continue through Thursday until the passage of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms and a continued flash flood threat will persist Thursday until a cold frontal passage Thursday night. Cooler and finally drier weather is expected Friday following the cold frontal passage.
The highest coverage will remain in the Big Bend with the consistent W-SW flow. Didn't make any changes to the lows which will be in the mid to upper 70s.
For Friday and the weekend, the ridge aloft builds more overhead, bringing even drier air over the area. With this setup, rain chances remain on the low side, with the best chances inland. Temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees warmer due to less cloud cover and rainfall. High pressure south of the area will keep a southwest wind flow in place across the waters through the end of the week.
A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing substantially lower temperatures to the area Friday and this weekend. West northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Great Basin region this evening, sandwiched between an upper low spinning along the Montana/Alberta/Saskatchewan border region, and a mid level ridge centered off the California coast near 135W.
454 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight.
45 Upper level trough and associated surface frontal boundary will continue to move across North and Central Texas tonight. As the trough and frontal boundary moves eastward tonight, some of these showers and storms may move across the northern portions of Southeast Texas tonight through early Thursday morning. Another HOT day is forecast for Thursday as high pressure ridge dominates the local weather.
Temperatures should remain mild tonight in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures should warm up into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday as an upper ridge builds into the area behind the exiting trough axis. On Friday, temperatures will warm into the lower 90s with dew points in the 70s giving us heat index values from the upper 90s to around 103 degrees. We will start to get into southwesterly flow aloft with the ridge axis shifting east and a deeper trough pushing into the Rockies.
While the upper ridge builds, models are struggling handling potential meso convective complexes over the weekend and these will just need to be monitored for potential rain chances.
/issued 855 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this evening with temperatures from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Later tonight focus shifts to weak cold front moving through the region. Pattern turns rather sticky as a upper ridge builds into our area for late in the week.