Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
608 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Low pressure aloft continues to wrap up to the northwest as a cool front swings through the area. Otherwise west winds will bring in cooler air with lows likely in the lower to middle 50s. Friday will be a breezy and cool day with west winds gradually diminishing from west to east as weak surface ridging builds. Weak ridging builds through Friday night with a stronger southerly gradient developing through the night.
521 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The low pressure system that was associated with yesterday's cold front continues to spin over central South Dakota as seen on satellite imagery bringing cloud cover to northern portions of the CWA, especially across Dawes County, NE. A few light rain showers are possible this afternoon across these areas before the low pushes farther toward the east. Highest peaks, especially in the Snowys, could see temperatures below freezing.
Dry conditions will continue into tonight, then models continue to bring a weak cold front across the PAH forecast area on Friday. Ahead of the front on Friday, high temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the south half of our counties.
/Issued 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ Main forecast concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms late afternoon and into the evening across mainly parts of northeast Oklahoma, in association with an approaching cold front. The aforementioned cold front currently stretches across parts of northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas. The highest instability values in the area are positioned along and to the northwest of Interstate 44, and it is expected that this area will have the main potential for any isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through the evening.
/issued 248 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ The cold front is currently bisecting the FA and, though it continues to push southward, has slowed in forward speed.
732 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 There will be increased chances of showers over the weekend in an onshore flow between ridging to the north and tropical low pressure to the south. Surface and upper ridging will dominate tonight. Precipitation chances increase some on Friday as high pressure weakens and moisture increases with a backdoor front moving closer to the area.
516 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 19z surface analysis had low near KATY with trough into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over KD07 with wrap-around precipitation over western SD.
The beautiful, trouble free, flight weather should continue through another twenty four hour period as a massive eastern states ridge gets compressed a bit by a northern tier upper level trough and a deepening sub tropical low pressure system.
605 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 WV imagery this afternoon showing a large closed circulation currently migrating slowly across the Dakotas with an upstream ridge over the northern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered near the SD/MN border with an associated cold from extending from southern MN through central IA then into eastern KS. Models are advertising that the large scale pattern will alter over the next several days as flow transitions from near zonal to more amplified in part to a strong upper low digging down the west coast.
Moderate easterly flow will increase over the waters on Friday between high pressure north of the waters and a tropical disturbance over the Bahamas.
Friday afternoon promises to be warmer with a flat ridge overhead along with lighter winds.
315 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A cold front was moving through the region this morning.
251 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 High pressure will remain over the region at the surface today, with relatively zonal flow aloft.
135 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains behind the closed low near the Canadian border. Due to weak WAA, lows will be warmer than last night.
1128 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 19z surface analysis had low near KATY with trough into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over KD07 with wrap-around precipitation over western SD.
138 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 High pressure will prevail tonight, before a weak backdoor front drops into the region on Friday. High pressure will then linger north of the area through much of the weekend. A weak backdoor front will drop into the region on Friday, with high pressure to then prevail north of the area into the weekend.
Southerly return flow commences this evening as a lee trough builds over eastern CO. And without any strong forcing aloft, believe the area should remain dry with an increase in mid cloud cover and slightly warmer temps climbing to the lower and middle 60s.
There is a slight chance of convection, however will not mention in the TAFs at this time due to the low probability of any aviation impacts. Expect just isolated convection over the Coastal Bend on Friday as slightly drier air works in ahead of a weak upper low over the central Gulf.
A cold front is moving slowly across Wisconsin this morning. New during the past hour or so has been the development of storms along the preceding warm front as it lifts north. If that happens, and that's also the general flavor of the NamNest and WRF ARW, the resulting debris clouds over the southern half of the CWA will gradually thin out by late morning and early afternoon, allowing some instability to develop ahead of the cold front.
336 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper low circulation continues to spin over the Grand Forks region early this morning, with clouds rotating southward across the CWA.
Highs today will be closer to normal for this time of year mainly due to cloud cover, cooler and moist upslope surface flow and chances for convection.
332 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Today and Tonight: Quasi-stationary deep layered ridge will remain fixated over northern MS through tonight. The highest values will be between 100 and 105 primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where that area will remain outlooked with limited heat stress. The lower dewpoints will provide a pleasant, less humid evening tonight with lows eventually settling around 70.
345 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 WV imagery shows a strong upper trough over the upper Midwest, and an elongated ridge over the srn CONUS and extending into Mexico. Closer to home, the upper trough is trailing a cold front thru the Texas Panhandle and into Southeast New Mexico, and is pretty much stationary attm. This activity should taper off to the NW over the weekend as low-lvl southerly flow pushes the theta-e ridge out of our area. We'll then settle in for a week or so of above-normal temperatures under the ridge, w/little prospects for convection.
Another area of low pressure can be seen sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front associated with the northern trough has slowly been working southward across the CWA overnight.
Even as a southeasterly upslope flow develops this afternoon, seasonal temperatures are likely again today with a milder air mass slow to erode out of the high plains.
320 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 (Today and Tonight) As of 230 am, a cold front is moving into Haskell/Fisher counties from the north-northwest, with showers and a few thunderstorms accompanying the front. However, if the front only makes it to the Big Country, then the Big Country will see the highest chances and areas south may not see any storms.
Near the surface, high pressure is shifting slowly eastward across western Kansas. Upper level trough continues to move through the central plains meanwhile a cold front continues to move through southwest Kansas with the position as of noon between Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Tonight winds should calm with high pressure moving in and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s. Friday as the high pressure moves eastward the winds will switch back to the south and highs will reach into the mid 80s.
As the center of the high moves east and over Middle TN light winds are expected through the TAF period.
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A dissipating area of showers and thunderstorms were across the western half of the area early this morning, well ahead of a surface cold front, which extended from northeast Missouri into southeast Kansas. Drier air behind the front advects in with south central Missouri being last to see the cooler and drier air. Weak high pressure settles in tonight, with dew points in the 50s to near 60 and under mostly clear skies lows will be rather comfortable from the low to mid 60s.
/GG/ Expect mainly dry weather through the period as ridging remains across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs tomorrow in the middle to upper 90s. Peak heat index values Friday will be in the lower 100s for most locations.
1222 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A cold front arrives on Friday with a round of showers and thunderstorms along it.
The persistent upper ridge that has been over the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley will be flattening out as a trough moves through the Great Lakes region. A dissipating back door cold front will stall off to our northeast and east and another weak cold front will be approaching from the west/northwest later tonight. Highest chances should be over the higher terrain especially the eastern mountains.
1138 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 WV imagery this afternoon showing a large closed circulation currently migrating slowly across the Dakotas with an upstream ridge over the northern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered near the SD/MN border with an associated cold from extending from southern MN through central IA then into eastern KS. Models are advertising that the large scale pattern will alter over the next several days as flow transitions from near zonal to more amplified in part to a strong upper low digging down the west coast.
1051 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Low pressure aloft continues to wrap up to the northwest as a cool front swings through the area. Otherwise west winds will bring in cooler air with lows likely in the lower to middle 50s. Friday will be a breezy and cool day with west winds gradually diminishing from west to east as weak surface ridging builds. Weak ridging builds through Friday night with a stronger southerly gradient developing through the night.
222 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains behind the closed low near the Canadian border. Due to weak WAA, lows will be warmer than last night.
1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 At 3 PM, a low pressure area was located just east of Aberdeen SD. A cold front extended from this low southeast into south-central Minnesota and then south through central Iowa. A warm front extended from the Albert Lea MN southeast to Platteville WI. With 0-1 km shear of 30 knots, there will be the potential of isolated tornadoes along the warm front.
This moisture is moving in as a wedge of high pressure builds down the Eastern seaboard. With the upper level ridge still in place and minimal instability expected.
331 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Broad upper ridging to the north continues to extend east-northeast from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic states. Farther south, an upper low spins over the central Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine, located approximately 300 miles southeast of the Grand Bahama Island.
Ceilings across the northern terminals should lower with the approach of a cold front towards daybreak but ceilings are expected to maintain VFR category.
A cold front will cross the Great Basin early in the week.
252 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper high in control for one more day before it shifts a little further east.
Clear skies persist across the TN Valley this evening, as high pressure maintains its hold across the region. Temps may be a degree or so warmer for Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms. A change is on the way though! As the upper level ridge begins to flatten out and shift Ewrd, a weak cold front will approach and then fizzle out across the area this weekend. Daytime highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints falling down into the lower/middle 60s.
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 GOES water vapor showing center of deep closed low spinning northeast along the ND/MN. For today, the area will be under the influence of cooler/cyclonic flow under the closed low as it lifts slowly northeast into Canada. Clearing takes place this evening/overnight as the low pulls off and high pressure builds in.
404 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper level low pressure system has pushed into east central North Dakota early this morning. This will allow warmer temperatures to begin lifting back into the area into the weekend. Temperatures today will be seasonable, with highs in the mid to upper 70s to a few locations in southwest Nebraska in the lower 80s.
and Saturday Moderate to heavy rain has come to an end across northeast Wisconsin as a low pressure system tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Despite the passage of the moderate to heavy rain, the actual cold front from this system hasn't moved through the region yet but is expected to during the morning hours. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are also expected later today as the cold front passes and higher winds mix down to the surface. Quiet weather is then expected later tonight into Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves across the western Great Lakes region.
Another warm and humid day is in store for central Indiana with chances for thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area.
Deep layer easterly flow will prevail as the region remains wedged between a closed mid/upper level low moving westward over the central Gulf and the upper ridge extending east- northeastward from northern Texas over the western Atlantic. The forecast area will remain on the dry side of the ridge through the period with PWATs averaging around 1 to 1. Overnight lows should range generally from the low 70s inland to mid to upper 70s near the coast.
407 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A latitudinally oriented elongated upper level high pressure system continues to be an influence on srn CONUS weather and we are no exception. An upper level low across the Dakotas has driven a cold front into the area which continues to slowly sag southward across the CWFA.
321 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Winds are expected to become gusty during this afternoon in response to a quick moving trough passage today. The strongest winds will be in the high terrain of northwest Montana, but 20-30 mph winds will be common throughout the region.
The surface cold front will move through later this morning. Clouds will stick around through the day due to cyclonic flow with low pressure over Ontario. This low will pull away tonight as high pressure tracks across the Ohio valley.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Quasi-stationary deep layered ridge will remain fixated over northern MS through tonight. The highest values will be between 100 and 105 primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where that area will remain outlooked with limited heat stress. The lower dewpoints will provide a pleasant, less humid evening tonight with lows eventually settling around 70.
A cold front is moving slowly across Wisconsin this morning. New during the past hour or so has been the development of storms along the preceding warm front as it lifts north. If that happens, and that's also the general flavor of the NamNest and WRF ARW, the resulting debris clouds over the southern half of the CWA will gradually thin out by late morning and early afternoon, allowing some instability to develop ahead of the cold front. Once the afternoon line moves through, skies will clear setting the stage for a sunny and comfortable Saturday where we'll see highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Upper high in control for one more day before it shifts a little further east.
A dissipating area of showers and thunderstorms were across the western half of the area early this morning, well ahead of a surface cold front, which extended from northeast Missouri into southeast Kansas. Drier air behind the front advects in with south central Missouri being last to see the cooler and drier air. Weak high pressure settles in tonight, with dew points in the 50s to near 60 and under mostly clear skies lows will be rather comfortable from the low to mid 60s.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Minnesota, while upper level analysis places low over the Red River Valley with ridge building over western Montana. Temperatures will still be a bit below average, though quite a bit warmer than the past few days. Tonight, a short wave busting through the ridge will zip through northern portions of our area. A quiet weekend and start to the upcoming week is expected with broad upper level ridging over the area.
636 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 High pressure will remain over the region at the surface today, with relatively zonal flow aloft. Although convective coverage should increase as the low level jet picks up Saturday night, the amount of instability should diminish fairly rapidly after sunset.
Upper ridging is bringing tranquil weather to the Northern Rockies this morning with clear skies over much of the area.
Shower and storm chances are possible during the day as the warm front moves through the region and instability increases.
657 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper level low pressure system has pushed into east central North Dakota early this morning. This will allow warmer temperatures to begin lifting back into the area into the weekend. Temperatures today will be seasonable, with highs in the mid to upper 70s to a few locations in southwest Nebraska in the lower 80s.
Upper low circulation continues to spin over the Grand Forks region early this morning, with clouds rotating southward across the CWA.
/issued 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ WV imagery shows a strong upper trough over the upper Midwest, and an elongated ridge over the srn CONUS and extending into Mexico. Closer to home, the upper trough is trailing a cold front thru the Texas Panhandle and into Southeast New Mexico, and is pretty much stationary attm. This activity should taper off to the NW over the weekend as low-lvl southerly flow pushes the theta-e ridge out of our area. We'll then settle in for a week or so of above-normal temperatures under the ridge, w/little prospects for convection.
After a relatively chilly start, afternoon temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Flat upper ridging will cover the forecast area Saturday through Saturday night with weak and variable upper level flow.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine now centered over the central Bahamas. Satellite imagery depicting mostly clear skies inland, with temperatures generally in the low 70s.
Latest satellite trends indicate the complex was decaying as evident via warmer cloud tops all along this line. Temperatures in northwest and northern AR will top out in the lower to middle 80s, while central portions of the state will top out in the lower to middle 90s, and southern third of the state will top out in the middle to upper 90s. On Saturday, high pressure aloft will remain situated over the state sandwiched between zonal flow to the north and a closed upper low over the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances diminish as the cold front washes out over northern AR.
This moisture is moving in as a wedge of high pressure builds down the Eastern seaboard. With the upper level ridge still in place and minimal instability expected. The upper level ridge begins to breakdown this evening and continues into the weekend. With this ridge weakening, Temps will begin to moderate a bit and we should start to see day time highs more in the 80s versus the 90s.
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A cold front was moving through the region this morning.
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 GOES water vapor showing center of deep closed low spinning northeast along the ND/MN. For today, the area will be under the influence of cooler/cyclonic flow under the closed low as it lifts slowly northeast into Canada. Clearing takes place this evening/overnight as the low pulls off and high pressure builds in. Saturday into Saturday night will see a mid-level trough/weak area of low pressure drop southeast from the Northern Plains into our area. Fairly impressive wing of warm air advection/isentropic lift and 850 moisture transport accompany the trough/low.
542 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Continued upper lvl ridging with vfr conditions expected areawide thru 14/12z fcst cycle. /Today through Saturday/ Upper lvl ridging persisting over the area continuing to bring a drying trend at all lvls as pwats have continued to fall, one half inch lower in 24 hours on the latest 0z sounding at kshv.
536 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 The latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains behind the closed low near the Canadian border. Due to weak WAA, lows will be warmer than last night. Saturday a trough will move through the forecast area, causing the winds to turn to the north behind it and remain light. East of the trough southerly winds may be breezy. Saturday evening the trough will be over the southeast border of the forecast area. A weak LLJ nose will be over the trough too. In addition a weak upper level short wave trough will also form over the surface feature.
Otherwise, another hot one with temps in the low to mid 90s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 71 91 69 / 20 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 69 89 68 / 20 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 94 70 89 67 / 20 20 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 67 85 64 / 20 30 60 20.
Models are in good agreement with a mid/upper level ridge continuing to build across the region today. Several models had chance POPs, but with the ridge aloft, low CAPE (except along the coast and over the waters), and limited moisture, am expecting the activity to remain isolated. Tonight the mid/upper level ridge axis shifts west of the area with weak trough moving over S TX by Saturday. Despite the weak trough, moisture is progged to remain limited with minimal CAPE.
The latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains behind the closed low near the Canadian border. Due to weak WAA, lows will be warmer than last night. Saturday a trough will move through the forecast area, causing the winds to turn to the north behind it and remain light. East of the trough southerly winds may be breezy. Saturday evening the trough will be over the southeast border of the forecast area. A weak LLJ nose will be over the trough too. In addition a weak upper level short wave trough will also form over the surface feature.
436 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Current surface analysis places low over northern Minnesota, while upper level analysis places low over the Red River Valley with ridge building over western Montana. Temperatures will still be a bit below average, though quite a bit warmer than the past few days. Tonight, a short wave busting through the ridge will zip through northern portions of our area. A quiet weekend and start to the upcoming week is expected with broad upper level ridging over the area.
/issued 407 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ A latitudinally oriented elongated upper level high pressure system continues to be an influence on srn CONUS weather and we are no exception. An upper level low across the Dakotas has driven a cold front into the area which continues to slowly sag southward across the CWFA.
Broad high pressure over eastern Canada has a well-established ridge into the southeast U. , with tropical disturbance 95L still mostly a sharpening trough near the central Bahamas, and axis extending southwest toward central Cuba. Winds have settle slightly to a general exercise caution range through most of Hawk Channel and the Straits, but appears Small Craft Advisories will continue a bit longer for the Straits offshore the Upper Keys until both the tropical disturbance makes more progress north, and/or its trough toward central Cuba lifts closer to the Cay Sal Bank and helps decrease local winds.
This should help to warm the area back into the low 90s.
High pressure over the region will continue to produce dry weather along with warming temperatures through the weekend.