Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With high pressure in control of the weather, sunny skies can be expected across the region today. The pressure gradient associated with the high will continue to remain tight enough to keep any sea breeze component just offshore today, but as the high weakens some on Friday better chances for the sea breeze component will increase.
So the main issue to deal with will be freezing formation and how dense does it get. However even though the high resolution output indicates that fog will form they differ on exactly where it will develop first and where the lowest visibilities will be. I have patchy freezing fog developing mid to late evening.
1122 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 /18Z TAFS/ Most of the showers have pushed east of the terminals late this morning, but fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue across the area until mid afternoon and reduce visibility. /issued 506 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ /12Z TAFS/ Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will be possible at all sites this morning, with rain chances decreasing by late morning. /issued 437 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ (Today and Tonight) The potential for freezing rain or sleet will continue, across much of West Central Texas, until noon today. With surface temperatures remaining below freezing, where we currently have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect, until around noon today, we extended our advisory in time to expire at noon.
325 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 High pressure will build across the area tonight through early Friday.
1219 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Today: As expected most of the good lift ends around 1200 UTC, with mainly freezing drizzle during the morning. Appears area roughly along/west of the turnpike will remain cold enough for freezing rain/freezing drizzle well into the afternoon. Temperatures should finally warm above freezing areawide on Friday although there still may be fairly extensive cloud cover.
The current thinking is that temperatures will warm above freezing by the time the rains move in. May also shave off some of the winter weather advisory, as the freezing line continues to progress slowly westward. A period of relatively higher ceilings possible over western AR before additional rain moves into the area this afternoon, by which time all areas will see temperatures above freezing. Area radars/observations confirm the presence of some freezing drizzle from portions of central OK into northeast OK, with the activity lifting to the northeast. Suspect that the shallow cold air will hang around for several more hours, enough to warrant extending the winter weather advisory through the morning hours with temps eventually rising above freezing toward noon.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the western half of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas.
Troughing dominates the western half of the country while strong persistent ridging remains over the east coast. The upper high sits off the Carolina coast and ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, strong high pressure sitting over Bermuda ridges west over the southeast U.
Radiative cooling and light winds will allow overnight low temperatures to drop into the low single digits to near zero range over the freshened snowpack of northcentral MN and into the lower teens over relatively snow-free eastern ND.
A cold front is sweeping across the region at this hour, with northwest winds expected to increase considerably this evening, and persist through the overnight hours. Fortunately, this will be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.
Still seeing readings cooler in a band across Central Alabama indicating all of the snow has not melted just yet. The latest satellite imagery has a quick moving trough headed east southeast from the Mid Mississippi Valley region. This feature will allow a cold front to swing through the state later tonight. Since this feature is moving across tonight, it will mess with the radiational cooling and have overnight lows at or above freezing area wide.
A cold front will continue to push southeast across the region. Behind the cold front cooler air will spread into the region for tonight and Tuesday, however the cool down will be short lived as winds will quickly shift back out of the south Tuesday night.
An associated low pressure clipper system at the surface has pushed through the forecast area and was over east central Illinois. Tuesday, an advancing weak ridge will lead to decreasing northwest winds.
With many areas falling below freezing north of I-4 last night, temperatures will not be nearly as cool with only Tomorrow's highs will climb back up to average before a strong and dry cold front sweeps across the area during the day tomorrow. Southwest winds will pick up to around 7-10kt ahead of a fast approaching cold front by 14Z tomorrow. A deepening low pressure system near the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across our region on Tuesday.
927 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Cold front has moved through the entire forecast area this evening, with only a few high clouds left in its wake.
Latest surface observations show cold front now entering the northwest part of Middle Tennessee although bulk of cold air lags well behind the initial wind shift. The rest of the area will see some flurries at times but no accumulation is expected outside the Upper Cumberland due to even less moisture and warmer temperatures.
Strong high pressure will remain in place through much of the week and result in dry weather conditions along with above average daytime temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the entire West Coast and will do so through much of the forecast period. While some smoke will be noticeable to the generally public, the heaviest concentration of smoke will remain above the surface in the higher levels of the atmosphere. A storm system is then forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest late in the week and will help to weaken the ridge slightly. SFO Bridge Approach. Light to moderate winds will continue along the Central Coast as high pressure remains over the region.
A ridge of high pressure is building into the area with winds taking a slow downward trend and we can also see some clearing across the James valley into eastern North Dakota. Guidance has this cloud cover moving back east as a low to mid level deck tonight into Tuesday as the high pressure continues to our south and we get back into westerly flow.
Strong upper level ridge remains over the Pacific northwest. Otherwise low level inversion will continue to keep the lower elevations cloudy and cold with patchy freezing fog.
Another cold front moves through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates continued troughing over the eastern half of the US, with a ridge west of the Rockies. Moisture was scant, though, with 850mb temperature-dewpoint depressions on the lower side in ND, MN, and northeastern SD.
Warmer air aloft will advect in from the west, with 850mb temperatures rising in the 7C to 11C range.
Gradient forcing continues to quickly decrease as weak high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. For tonight: Warm air advection commences from west to east tonight as a warm front slides east into the Dakotas. Increased overnight lows with the WAA and expected clouds, into the low/mid 20s. Boundary layer temperatures would support even warmer daytime highs, though lack of good mixing via BUFKIT analysis so opted to maintain close to the inherited forecast.
A cold front will move across the region this evening and turn west winds at all TAF sites to the northwest/north with increasing speeds between 10 and 14 knots along with some higher gusts, especially on Tuesday. /Issued 231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ /Tonight/ After a very warm, sunny, and near record temperature-breaking afternoon, a cold front lurks on the horizon across the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. The cold front should clear our Central Texas counties well before sunrise. Initially, the surface cold front will bring a subtle shift of current westerly winds to northwest at 10-15 mph, before strong low level cold advection and a shift to the north at 15-20 mph arrive 3-4 hours post passage.
A surface cold front will accompany it extending from a weak low pressure system forming over IL. With the clouds, temps won't be too impacted by the front and only fall into the lower to middle 30s. Current forecast lows are in the lower 20s but dew points have been trending lower than model guidance so we could see isolated locations have lows in the upper teens.
The large ridge centered over the Great Basin will dominate the forecast through the short term with overnight low temperatures remaining the only real forecast challenge.
550 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A cold front will push of the area this evening ushering colder temperatures back into the Ozarks region. Dry cold frontal passages will occur every couple of days resulting in fluctuating temperatures and variable wind direction. KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Gusty, but somewhat diminishing, northwest winds will occur early in the taf period with vfr conditions as low pressure over the OH Vly shifts off to the east. Winds will shift the west and northwest this afternoon as a dry cold front pushes southeast across the region.
A compact upper low positioned offshore from WA was in the process of moving north along the west side of a WRN CONUS ridge Monday afternoon.
1014 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the Southern States will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
940 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Evening surface analysis showed a prefrontal trough moving south across North Texas, with an associated cold front draped across Oklahoma. A cold front will cross SE TX early Tuesday morning with a reinforcing shot of dry air. A cold front will cross the area early Tuesday and north winds will increase in the wake of the front.
The upper level pattern remains highly amplified with a blocking pattern across the western CONUS. While the location of the cloud shield has been well-resolved by some of the high-res guidance, the stratus has failed to mix-out as progged by most of the solutions. WAA ensues on the backside of the departing ridge on Tuesday evening as downslope air spreads eastward.
High pressure parked over the region will maintain our dry and hazy conditions through the week, with continued mild days and chilly nights. A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the western US in a rex block type pattern, with a low parked underneath near central Baja. This pattern has been keeping our area precipitation free in a very dry airmass, with hazy and warmer than normal days, and chilly overnight lows, running a few degrees below normal in lower elevations. Some high level moisture is producing a mostly thin cirrus deck over the region, but dry easterly flow in the lower levels is maintaining very low humidities with poor overnight recoveries in the desert and mountain areas, especially the Kern County and southern Tulare County mountains.
627 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 VFR conditions continue most of tonight as high clouds increase ahead of a cold front expected to pass through the area on Tuesday morning. Ceilings will also lower behind the cold front on Tuesday with some scattered brief snow showers possible at TYS and TRI with MVFR conditions expected.
The first will be tonight when a cold front passes through central Indiana. In addition, some freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out across the southern counties early tomorrow morning.
A fairly strong cold front is also beginning to move out of the Midwest states and into W TN, with sfc winds turning toward the NW around 15-20 MPH with higher gusts in the wake of the frontal passage. With the cold front not xpcted to cross into the wrn half of the area until early Tue morning, temps across most of the area should begin to fall below 40F after midnight, even with some mid/high clouds moving into the area. Current forecast lows are in the lower 20s but dew points have been trending lower than model guidance so we could see isolated locations have lows in the upper teens.
Temperatures are in the lower 60s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure over South Texas will extend eastward over South Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the Florida peninsula tonight.
The majority of snow is expected to fall across northern WI into the UP of MI, but the wave will drag a cold front across the forecast area, ushering in much colder air. Tuesday will see more sunshine and gradually diminishing wind as high pressure builds across the region.
Windy to very windy conditions with above normal temperatures are expected over the plains, but the valleys of Southwest Montana will remain cool with areas of late night and early morning freezing fog. With the upper level ridge in place, quiet conditions continue to reside over the area at this time. Regarding the High Wind Watch, there is still some uncertainty as to how widespread/strong the winds will be. Given these concerns, we'll hold off on upgrading the High Wind Watch for now and let the next shift take one final look. The stagnant pattern of the last week or so finally begins breaking down as a disturbance rides over the top of the ridge tonight, then moves southeastward through Alberta on Tuesday.
High pressure over the cwa into TUesday, but already see some mid/high level clouds work into the far west overnight and into most of the MN cwa Tuesday.
947 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 9 PM / 03Z surface map showed a cold front over north MS, dropping south. Not typically seen with cool season cold fronts, a thermal ridge was evident on AR and southern MO obs this evening.
A strong cold front is currently making its way across the forecast area. The cold advection will help push tomorrow's high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.
This will result in warmer temperatures tonight with readings dropping to near 40 degrees inland and mid 40s coast. The cold front will move across se Ga/ne Fl dry on Tuesday bringing breezy conditions. SW winds will increase tonight ahead of approaching cold front.
Dry cold front moving through from north to south across area terminals will bring NW winds in place of swrly winds at area terminals through the morning hours.
A cold front moving south through the area after 06Z Tuesday will bring northerly winds behind it. /NF/ Tonight through Tuesday: A surface cold front will begin to approach the ArkLaMiss tonight from the NW. Colder air will advect into region behind the front, resulting in much cooler temperatures for tomorrow. After experiencing highs today which were 10-12 degrees above average, highs tomorrow will be about 5 degrees below where they should be with a moderate north winds making it feel a bit cooler.
High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight, although the clouds will likely be a bit slow to decrease. Temperatures near-normal mid week through the weekend with highs in the 20s to as warm as the low 30s this weekend.
620 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the Southern States will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
/Issued 209 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017/ A rather strong cold front and upper level trough are forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday.
Upper air analysis shows a highly amplified pattern with an upper ridge over the western US and downstream, long wave trof over the eastern half of the US. West of the parent trof axis, a vigorous upper level impulse over the upper Mid-West and northern High Plains drops rapidly southeast over the Mississippi River Valley tonight. This feature causes a cold front to sweep southward over the central Gulf coast by daybreak Tuesday. Maybe a mix of sun and clouds during the day Tuesday with the passage of the low level H85 front. Outside of this, with the passage of the upper trof axis to the east of the local area Tuesday, a reinforcing, dry deep layer northwest flow sets up.
Behind the frontal passage, Tuesday morning lows will dip just below freezing across portions of western to northern Oklahoma.
Wind speeds of 5-10 kts are expected overnight whilst a cold front pushes across the region leading to a veering wind component to the northwest. /issued 306 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ A cold front currently analyzed across Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma and North Central Texas will continue moving south and east into the Four State Region this evening into the overnight hours. Still, undercut MOS temperatures a few degrees in a few locations to account for the dry airmass in place as guidance has been running too warm with overnight low temperatures lately Stayed near to slightly warmer than MOS temperatures concerning daytime highs on Tuesday as well.
Windy to very windy conditions with above normal temperatures are expected over the plains, but the valleys of Southwest Montana will remain cool with areas of late night and early morning freezing fog. The stagnant pattern of the last week or so finally begins breaking down as a disturbance rides over the top of the ridge tonight, then moves southeastward through Alberta on Tuesday.
The ridge of high pressure to our west will keep strong surface pressure anchored west of the divide as a disturbance (currently just off the northwest coast of WA) rounds this ridge and drops southeast through northern Montana Tuesday evening.
Strong blocking pattern continues along the West Coast. Atmospheric pattern remains relatively unchanged as the ridge remains anchored overhead and dry weather persists.
543 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 VFR and dry with a weak cold front now south of the TAF sites. /issued 320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ Front is working its way through the South Plains this afternoon with slightly cooler air in its wake. Will make for a chilly Tuesday morning with low in the mid 20s on the Caprock and near 30 in the lower elevations.
A weak cold front move thru HOB around 03Z and MAF 05Z-06Z with a ne wind shift, mostly less than 12kts. This will create northwesterly steering flow over the Great Plains where disturbances will send a series of cold fronts through our CWA.
Strong and persistent high pressure aloft will remain the dominant weather feature across the western states through the work week.
The 4 pm subjective surface analysis showed a weak east-west ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and a dry cold front from southern IL through OK.
1013 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Mostly clear skies persist across the area this evening ahead of a fast approaching cold front currently entering northern Tennessee. /Issued 209 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017/ A rather strong cold front and upper level trough are forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday.
Updated aviation discussion High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather this week. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle and upper 70s across the lower deserts. While not nearly as influential as several nights ago, some gusty ridge top/gap LLJ winds should keep overnight lows locally elevated, then begin a deeper mixing process Tuesday.
344 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 A dry cold front moved over the far eastern plains earlier this morning slightly raining RH levels as well as winds. The strong upper ridge over the western CONUS continues to bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures. Strong upper level ridging will dominate the weather picture across the western U.
705 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 No updates planned this evening with only minor grid adjustments A dry cold front moved over the far eastern plains earlier this morning slightly raining RH levels as well as winds. The strong upper ridge over the western CONUS continues to bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures. Strong upper level ridging will dominate the weather picture across the western U.
538 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A strong cold front is currently making its way across the forecast area. The cold advection will help push tomorrow's high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.
but should diminish somewhat this evening as the secondary cold front which is now over Iowa comes through the area. Carney High amplitude pattern aloft will persist at least through the end of the week with a strong upper level ridge over the West Coast and a deep longwave trof over the East Coast.
Tuesday will be warmer with lighter winds as the upper ridge expands eastward.
Moisture is limited with this front, but brisk northwest winds will help to provide orographic lift during the day along the higher terrain. This will result in some scattered snow showers and flurries on Tuesday with light accumulations generally at or above about 2000 feet and 1"-2" possible across the highest terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 43 25 43 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 40 22 39 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 40 22 38 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 38 16 33 / 10 30 20 10 TN.
The cold front currently from NW Arkansas to SW Oklahoma will move rapidly south the remainder of the afternoon into tonight. Only slightly cooler temperatures expected in the wake of the front with no precipitation expected with it.
Even with the north winds, temperatures still warmed up into the lower and even mid 60s across much of west central and southwest Kansas thanks to downslope trajectories off the higher terrain of Wyoming. The light winds, mostly clear sky, and very low dewpoints will support lows down into the lower to mid 20s most locations (coldest out west).
With the sustained cold air advection lows tonight will drop to the lower teens north to upper teens south.
1037 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the Southern States will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
/issued 231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A weak cold front will move through West Central Texas this evening into early Tuesday morning, resulting in a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10 mph. Winds behind the front may stay up just enough to hinder radiational cooling conditions somewhat, but still expect most locations to drop into the low to mid 30s. Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, with highs near to slightly below seasonal normals. A large upper level trough over the eastern half of the U. One of these is currently moving east into western IL, which will push a cold front through tonight.
Surface observations and infrared satellite imagery indicate a cold front dropping south toward the ArkLaMiss extending from a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley region. An increase in winds is expected as high pressure builds in behind the front, leading to occasionally gusty conditions in some northern and western locations late tonight. /TH/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tuesday: A surface cold front will begin to approach the ArkLaMiss tonight from the NW. Colder air will advect into region behind the front, resulting in much cooler temperatures for tomorrow. After experiencing highs today which were 10-12 degrees above average, highs tomorrow will be about 5 degrees below where they should be with a moderate north winds making it feel a bit cooler.
300 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure parked over the region will maintain our dry and hazy conditions through the week, with continued mild days and chilly nights. A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the western US in a rex block type pattern, with a low parked underneath near central Baja. This pattern has been keeping our area precipitation free in a very dry airmass, with hazy and warmer than normal days, and chilly overnight lows, running a few degrees below normal in lower elevations. Some high level moisture is producing a mostly thin cirrus deck over the region, but dry easterly flow in the lower levels is maintaining very low humidities with poor overnight recoveries in the desert and mountain areas, especially the Kern County and southern Tulare County mountains.