Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight, storms will have dissipated, but lingering cloud cover will help keep minTs in the lower 70s. An upper ridge will persist over the western/central CONUS, with troughing in the northeast to Atlantic coast. Through the week, the ridge will build slightly eastward, resulting in an uptick in temperatures in our area. Still, upper flow will remain northwesterly with a steady diet of weak upper disturbances traversing the Atlantic coast trough and tapping into a lingering rich supply of moisture across the region.
355 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A weak coastal trough will persist through Saturday before dissipating. Convection should diminish this evening as the better upper forcing shifts off to the northeast but then re-develop overnight as a trough strengthens near the coast causing an increase in moisture convergence. Lows will generally range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s near the coast. A coastal trough will slowly move northeast along the coast on Saturday.
1143 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Currently - An inverted trough located in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The lower level flow is expected to weaken while the confluent zone to our northwest through west is expected to lift further northward through the afternoon. The main vectors for convection reaching the Keys will most likely be back building from the Gulf into the Lower Keys or fast moving outflow boundaries of Cuban origin. A trough in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to lift northward through the afternoon. West of this activity will vary quite a bit in both magnitude and direction due to the proximity of convection and the trough.
254 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure will shift southeast overnight as a cold front approaches from the north.
148 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as weak low pressure crosses the region.
343 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 /Updated at 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019/ A weak upper level trough still extends southward down the Appalachians and into the state, with a low spinning over the north central Gulf. The blocking pattern continues over much of the CONUS with an amplified ridge over the Rockies. The main trough axis and frontal boundary remain stretched through the Appalachians and into the Gulf States this weekend leading to increased thunderstorm chances for all of Central AL.
852 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Expect breezy and slightly cooler conditions today.
Light northerly flow will persist through Saturday as a high pressure ridge remains over the Upper Midwest and brings clear skies, low humidity and light winds to the forecast area.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging over the region will guide hot temperatures into this afternoon with highs expected to top off well into the 90s.
/issued 1033 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Northwest flow aloft dominates the region with a closed low situated in the Gulf of Mexico. 13z RAP and surface analysis shows a trough axis located in eastern Arkansas for the remainder of the day with a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes. /issued 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Early morning temperatures range from the middle 60s near the Tennessee River to the low 70s near Memphis. The synoptic pattern will feature a ridge over the Rockies and Plains with a broad trough over the Eastern third of the US.
Dry and pleasant weather is expected this weekend as high pressure in place across the Great Lakes remains in place.
Then there has been a stripe along the highway 200 corridor where there has been very little cumulus. Along and north of the highway 2 corridor the most heating occurred and the most shower and weak storm activity formed. With the best surface heating along and north of the highway 2 corridor, the best MLCAPE values remain there, around 1500 J/kg.
This looks to be mainly across the southern half of the region, coinciding with an increase in low to mid level moisture associated with weak energy in the broad trough across the southeast U.
With broad high pressure continuing to be centered over the Four Corners, moisture will circulate around and within the ridge causing a gradual increase in the coverage of afternoon and evening storms.
240 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 (Tonight and Saturday) Above normal temperatures will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across the region. A weak cold front will approach the Big Country late in the day Saturday, but will have little effect on temperatures across the region.
Updated at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Strong upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will be in place at the start of the forecast period.
The resident dry and stable environment will hold firm today, as conditions remain governed by lower amplitude mid level northwest flow and surface ridging.
Similar setup for Saturday with an upper high holding over the 4 corners area and keeping the atmosphere capped for the most part.
Upper air charts from 12Z, in combination with water vapor satellite imagery, continued to show a mid/upper tropospheric anticyclone over NM. Surface analysis this afternoon showed low pressure down over the OK panhandle and high pressure over the MN/IA/WI border area. Locally, clouds have held temperatures down in the lower or mid 70s in much of eastern NE, with upper 70s to lower 80s from western IA to along the MO river.
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 As expected, starting to see a little more convective development now, especially north of the highway 2 corridor. Ridge axis is show to shift in such a way we may see a lull in chances in this pattern Saturday (weak signal in our far northeast in the afternoon).
1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Think we'll probably get some sct shra/tstms to develop in the next few hours as temps climb into the lower 90s.
The highest coverage of storms will be across SE GA, FL Big Bend and FL Panhandle counties. In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast today.
However, with the low level jet weaker and shifted to the southwest, current thinking is that the more robust heavy rain producers will affect far southern KS into OK. Should see slightly warmer temps on Sun, although highs will still be below seasonal normals.
106 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2019 Isolated thunderstorms have started to develop this afternoon along the higher terrain.
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A lot more cloud cover today led to temperatures across west central Minnesota about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than expected. Elsewhere, more mid level cloudiness also led to holding down temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than expected.
As the h500 upper low moves east into the Prairie Provinces of Canada, we expect the mid level wind gradient to increase, resulting in better shear across the region. A cold front will move through the state and should be a focus for thunderstorms across much of eastern and southern North Dakota.
310 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Currently - A lower level trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, along with healthy diffluent flow aloft has resulted in a band of showers and thunderstorms. A nearly cut off upper level trough in the Gulf of Mexico is contributing to the upper diffluence. Forecast - Tonight into tomorrow the lower level gulf trough will spread northward, pulled towards more troughing along the Atlantic states. While doing so the trough is also expected to weaken some. The lower level flow will be relaxing through this period and it remains uncertain how much day time effects will offset the wetter than normal setup on Saturday. Lower level moisture will remain ample late Saturday, however, a lower level ridge build in behind the departing gulf trough.
Showers and storms still look to occur in our far western districts starting this evening, and slowly move east into the lower plains past midnight.
High pressure will continue to build into the region this weekend.
1140 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted the center of the upper high over NM. Easterly low level flow and a moist boundary layer over the high plains was producing areas of low clouds and fog. Short range models/ensembles rebuild the upper ridge axis west of the Front Range, resulting in west to northwest flow aloft. It will be about 5 degrees warmer this afternoon with highs in the 80s lower elevations, with 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. Models/ensembles are in good agreement rebuilding the upper ridge over WY/CO Saturday.
Cumulus clouds are already developing over the higher terrain across northern Arizona this morning.
210 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 West to northwest flow aloft persists over the Upper MS Valley late this week on the periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region through the central plains. At the surface, weak high pressure has kept most of the area dry with showers/storms mainly remaining out to the west over the northern plains with weak return flow/moisture transport. Locally, another mainly dry evening/night is expected with low- level ridging showing no signs of budging.
Showers and storms still look to occur in our far western districts starting this evening, and slowly move east into the lower plains into early Saturday morning.
While atmospheric forcing is minimal, given the moisture profile and light wind flow, as well as time of year, this is a classic setup for sea breeze convection - especially given the fact that isolated coverage was across a good portion of the Lower Texas Gulf waters, often a harbinger of afternoon sea breeze development given the profile.
134 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with high pressure over AZ/NM.
1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 The upper air pattern across much of the Nation will show only subtle changes through late Saturday with slight retrogression of the upper high/ridge centered in the southwestern U. and a slight westward shift in the trof axis stretching through central gulf coast, resulting in a continuation of north-northwest flow aloft through the mid MS Valley. The primary threat of showers and storms will remain across the Plains region in closer proximity to the low level baroclinic zone and deeper moisture and resultant instability. High pressure centered to the north-northeast will dominate the surface/low levels across our area bringing slightly below average temperatures and lower than normal humidity for early August.
a pair of high pressure systems aloft are centered over New Mexico and the Northern Bahamas this afternoon with a narrow trough located between the ridges stretched from the northeast gulf and Mobile, AL into the Appalachians. Rotating around the western ridge is a weak short wave over OK. At the surface, a weak trough is over the local area providing a light northerly flow. The low to mid lvl flow off the continent is also providing relatively drier air with PWATs running around 1.
1018 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Expect breezy and slightly cooler conditions today.
As for the rest of the forecast area, expect dry conditions with temperatures dropping to the lower 70s tonight with partly cloudy skies. Northwest flow will remain in place for the next several days, with broad trough to our east being our rainmaker for the weekend.
Mid-level high pressure will remain in control of the synoptic pattern across much of Texas through the period with troughing across the Southeast United States. A piece of this trough will try to break off and retrograde into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level ridge was centered over eastern New Mexico with a trough located over the Ohio Valley. low pressure was centered over northwest Oklahoma with a stationary front extending into southeast Texas. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler than normal with highs generally in the low 80s in the west to the mid 80s in the eastern sections.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is dominating the weather over the western 1/2 of the CONUS with a trough over the east. The mid Mississippi Valley is sandwiched in between these two features with northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Clockwise flow around the high continues relatively cool and dry air (for August) over the forecast area. Temperatures tonight and Saturday just a bit warmer than today's with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid and upper 80s.
1033 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Northwest flow aloft dominates the region with a closed low situated in the Gulf of Mexico. 13z RAP and surface analysis shows a trough axis located in eastern Arkansas for the remainder of the day with a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes. /issued 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Early morning temperatures range from the middle 60s near the Tennessee River to the low 70s near Memphis. The synoptic pattern will feature a ridge over the Rockies and Plains with a broad trough over the Eastern third of the US.
Temperatures will stay on the cool side due to the clouds and sfc flow with highs topping out in the lower 80s on Saturday.
228 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Another very hot day is underway as the region remains under the influence of an upper ridge, which has started retrograding toward the Four Corners Region. Saturday looks to be similar, though given the ridge's eventual position further west, flow aloft will transition to the north, allowing a cold front to push south through the region by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. However, prior to the front, Saturday now looks to be the hottest day, with temperatures areawide perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
Fairly quiet pattern continues across Central California as the high pressure sits parked over New Mexico. However, over the next few days this high will continue retrograde towards the region. This will be short lived however as the cut off low off the Pacific NW will finally be kicked out by as a trough dig south along the Canadian coastline. Not expecting much impact from this trough across the area, but it will push the ridge axis further east.
High pressure at the surface, northwest flow aloft, and a dry air mass reside over the area this morning. Thunderstorm activity is limited to the Plains where ample moisture and instability exist as part of the monsoonal flow moving around the upper level ridge centered in the southern Rockies. A weak short wave trough over ND looks to continue weakening as it rotates around the ridge.
213 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 213 PM CDT Weather is expected to remain quiet and pleasant through tonight, as high pressure remains situated across the region. Scattered precip development expected along sagging trough/front later tonight, well north of the CWA in northern WI.
Upper trough remains over the region this morning and will continue to remain over us this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will warm again into the mid-upper 80s with the urban heat islands likely topping out in the lower 90s again. Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019 Fairly benign weather pattern in place, despite troughing aloft.
/Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ An upper level high pressure system at H2 is still lingering over the southwest mainly over New Mexico. This upper high pressure system will slowly build eastward over the combined Panhandles.
The area remains on the eastern edge of upper level ridging centered west of the state.
Rain chances will be mainly confined to the ridges on Saturday as weak high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Most convective development thus far has been limited to mainly the ridges.
Lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees, and a little cooler in the typical cool spots of north- central WI. Highs on Saturday will be similar to today, in the lower 80s.
Mostly dry conditions are expected across the forecast area on Saturday as the upper ridge aloft remains in place. On Saturday, there should be further drying and stabilization with slight amplification of the upper level ridge.
914 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure will continue to build into the region this weekend.
Saturday will feature more of the same as the weak and slow moving upper trough allows for some instability. Under a broad upper level trough for much of the period. Saturday night a weak front passes through helping to diminish POPs from the northwest as high pressure builds in.
629 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 West to northwest flow aloft persists over the Upper MS Valley late this week on the periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region through the central plains. At the surface, weak high pressure has kept most of the area dry with showers/storms mainly remaining out to the west over the northern plains with weak return flow/moisture transport. Locally, another mainly dry evening/night is expected with low- level ridging showing no signs of budging.
The moist axis and inverted trough which has been plaguing the south/east sides of the forecast area is shunted a little further south.
The lower elevations of Yavapai County and Gila County could activity last well into the night.
/issued 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) Above normal temperatures will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across the region. A weak cold front will approach the Big Country late in the day Saturday, but will have little effect on temperatures across the region.
The highest coverage of storms is located across NW AL where there is convergence at the sfc and some divergence in the 500mb flow. Expect high temperatures overall to be about the same, but slightly cooler west of I-65.
As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 80s across most locations Short term Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions and the 00Z NAM suggest any lingering showers and thunderstorms should diminish over the next 2-3 hours.
/Updated at 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019/ A weak upper level trough still extends southward down the Appalachians and into the state, with a low spinning over the north central Gulf. The blocking pattern continues over much of the CONUS with an amplified ridge over the Rockies. The main trough axis and frontal boundary remain stretched through the Appalachians and into the Gulf States this weekend leading to increased thunderstorm chances for all of Central AL.
/issued 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ Another very hot day is underway as the region remains under the influence of an upper ridge, which has started retrograding toward the Four Corners Region. Saturday looks to be similar, though given the ridge's eventual position further west, flow aloft will transition to the north, allowing a cold front to push south through the region by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. However, prior to the front, Saturday now looks to be the hottest day, with temperatures areawide perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
907 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Rain chances will be mainly confined to the ridges on Saturday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Rain chances will be mainly confined to the ridges on Saturday as weak high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Expect the lowering of activity to continue through the evening hours.
533 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with high pressure over AZ/NM.
On Saturday, there should be further drying and stabilization with slight amplification of the upper level ridge.
652 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure will continue to build into the region this weekend.
601 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure will continue to build into the region this weekend.
While this monsoonal flow will not shut off completely, the placement of the meandering high pressure center will affect where the surges of southwest moisture flow.
Rain chances will be mainly confined to the ridges on Saturday as weak high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Line of storms with very heavy rain and hail has moved from the ridges to Pittsburgh. This entire area has been driven by a large outflow boundary that was born from the early strong convection over the ridges.
Meanwhile, the air mass over the Lower Keys and Southeast Gulf was worked over in the wake of heavy thunderstorms and then stratiform rain that finally dissipated late this afternoon over the Gulf. Mesoscale models and very recent radar trends show the boundary starting to spread northwest toward the Lower Keys. Bottom line is this should increase shower and thunderstorm development late this evening and overnight for much of the Lower Keys.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 71 85 / 20 40 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 69 84 / 20 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 88 70 85 / 30 30 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 85 65 83 / 30 20 30 50.
833 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure over the southern Great lakes will continue to bring general dry and hot conditions to the region through the weekend. Weak and broad high pressure ridge is stretching from IA to the Atlantic Coast on the surface map, keeping the weather pretty quiet going into the weekend. The overall flow pattern at 500 mb is dominated by a ridge over the desert SW and weak troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS.
Temperatures this evening were running warmer than expected in central Mississippi that has missed out on today's rainfall. Overnight, storms will have dissipated, but lingering cloud cover will help keep minTs in the lower 70s. An upper ridge will persist over the western/central CONUS, with troughing in the northeast to Atlantic coast. Through the week, the ridge will build slightly eastward, resulting in an uptick in temperatures in our area. Still, upper flow will remain northwesterly with a steady diet of weak upper disturbances traversing the Atlantic coast trough and tapping into a lingering rich supply of moisture across the region.
Upper low moving into BC with a dissipating frontal boundary over the Pacific northwest. For the weekend a southwest flow aloft with strong upper ridge inland and upper low offshore. Surface winds will turn more northerly as the thermal trough builds into the area.
Lows will range mainly in the lower 60s. Thunderstorm chances return Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska.
1145 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure over the southern Great lakes will continue to bring general dry and hot conditions to the region through the weekend. Weak and broad high pressure ridge is stretching from IA to the Atlantic Coast on the surface map, keeping the weather pretty quiet going into the weekend. The overall flow pattern at 500 mb is dominated by a ridge over the desert SW and weak troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS.
231 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 213 PM CDT Weather is expected to remain quiet and pleasant through tonight, as high pressure remains situated across the region. Scattered precip development expected along sagging trough/front later tonight, well north of the CWA in northern WI. Rodriguez 231 AM CDT No big changes to going forecast with pattern still forecast to transition to long wave troughing over the Great Lakes region mid-late week.
Our chance or rain will be largely driven by diurnal heating, with the highest chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some of the extended guidance does indicate a cold front will approach the Midsouth during the later half of the work week, but confidence is low in that solution. Synoptically, not much is expected to change over the next 7 days, a ridge will remain in place over the Western US with a trough over the Eastern third of the Nation. At the surface, weak high pressure will help suppress convection until peak heating.
311 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Upper level ridging has begun its shift westward with water vapor imagery showing it now centered over northern New Mexico with upper flow over the southern High Plains more northerly in direction. This coupled with a short wave trough moving across Nebraska and Kansas will help a weak cold front move into the forecast area this afternoon and then south of the area later tonight.