Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
919 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Drier and warmer weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Today through Wednesday Night Already starting the day off on a very warm note this mrng, with predawn temps ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
A weak upper ridge will build Tuesday and Wednesday.
1136 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Some cumulus clouds popped over the high terrain this afternoon in the trailing westerly flow behind yesterday's departing trough. This dry, westerly flow will remain in place Tuesday with the high pressure ridge elongated across the south. Another dry day expected Wednesday as the high pressure remains overhead with a light west flow.
The remainder of Tues should be dry and cooler than today. Still, with ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. Tilly The upper ridge over the southern U. Over the CWA, the pattern will switch to NW flow with cooler weather expected through Thurs. Have therefore trended temps warmer for Fri through the weekend. While the threat is not zero, have kept PoPs on the low side as track of individual s/w are uncertain at this time. Tilly Showers and thunderstorms will move southward early in the period ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area between 06-12Z. A cold front will move through the terminals late tonight, and low VFR or high MVFR ceilings will move into the terminal behind it.
Otherwise, northwesterly low-level flow should usher in drier dewpoints with overall cooler temperatures for this time of year. Highs today are forecast in the lower to mid 80s for most areas with dewpoints mixing out into the lower to mid 60s by afternoon. Wednesday looks to be slightly cooler than today with dewpoints dropping into the 50s across our north with lower 60s dewpoints forecast in our south.
A storm complex continues to dive southeast over southern Indiana early this morning courtesy of a low pressure system moving through the Midwest. By early afternoon, the low pressure system's cold front should drop southeast into the central KY providing a focus for renewed development of showers and storms. Updated at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A few lingering showers may be possible along the I-75 corridor to start off the day Wednesday, but should quickly push off to the east as high pressure builds in from the northwest. These storms are courtesy of a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley. By this afternoon, expected renewed development along the cold front as it sinks SE through the region.
A cold front moving through the region will bring north winds behind it. Cold front should make it through most of the region by mid morning, bringing northerly to northeasterly winds behind it. /issued 402 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ A cold front is will enter NW OK this evening bringing with it a wind shift and relief from 100 degree temperatures. Severals model indicate cooler temperatures for tomorrow than reflected in the NBM, and have therefore nudged temperatures down a few degrees for tomorrow as seen in the Superblend.
1045 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 So far, it has been cooler and drier compared to this time yesterday in most locations behind the exiting cool front. West of the Divide across Southern Wyoming, the RH is expected to eventually dip into the lower teens later this afternoon, and with the westerly wind gusts already pushing 30 mph in some locations, we will keep the Rangeland Fire Danger going in those areas where fuels are not critical. Tonight, with the dry air in place, some protected areas in the western valleys should reach the low 30s after the winds calm down.
The ridge to the west will amplify on Tuesday putting the central High Plains under more of a northwest flow. At the surface, cold front has just about cleared the forecast area this afternoon with northwest winds behind it. Thu: The Tri-State area will remain on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge, in WNW-NW flow aloft -- a notoriously challenging synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances.
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the ern Gulf maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow across the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level ridge remaining in about the same place as it was this time yesterday. A disturbance crossing the Plains is progged to begin breaking down the ridge, giving it a wwd nudge, with the weakening cap allowing for a little more convective coverage with heating today.
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with a weak cold front stretching west across northern MT. Cooler and drier air will remain across the area today, with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Have the highest confidence in storms developing and strengthening in the southern Nebraska Panhandle.
Expect a low- amplitude wave to help initiate convection near the lee trough of the Rockies by late afternoon. The theta-e ridge is forecast to stay west of the CWA, so I see little chance of much severe weather, or for that fact, much convection to move too far east. A frontolytic cold front will push south tonight that may give us a bit of a focus for convection. A similar scenario for Wednesday night as the theta-e ridge looks like it will remain west of the CWA.
Moisture is very limited in the low layers but not entirely missing aloft so expect some mountain buildups about anywhere this afternoon. Broad ridging over the Great Basin will keep the CWA under northwest flow Wednesday night.
As the mid level flow veers to the northwest on Wednesday, stronger energy will push across the area and tap into the higher dewpoints for a chance of showers and thundestorms.
The Heat Advisory continues for much of West Central Texas; however, a weak cold front may bring cooler temperatures to the Big Country.
A trough of low pressure near across northern portions of forecast area will continue into this afternoon with low level westerly flow south of the trough axis. A trough of low pressure across the waters will allow for weak onshore flow north and offshore flow south before the east coast breeze develops.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/ Surface cold front has made its way through much of the CWA this morning. This will result in somewhat "cooler" high temperatures today. Tomorrow, the upper high that has been dominating our weather as of late, will be re-centered over NM placing the FA in NW flow aloft.
A typical summertime pattern continues to grip South Texas as the upper-level ridge lingers over the central CONUS for Tuesday. However, the upper-level ridge is progged to gradually shift westward Wednesday resulting in temperatures being a few degrees cooler than today and should limit Heat Advisory criteria to the southern Coastal Bend for Wednesday afternoon.
529 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with a weak cold front stretching west across northern MT. Cooler and drier air will remain across the area today, with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
628 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Showers continue working across the region this morning in association with an upper low in southern Manitoba. Model guidance continues the light shower activity through the morning hours with cooler than average temperatures prevailing through the day.
However, very warm temperatures prevailed aloft, with a freezing level over 17kft and 500mb temperatures of only -2C. Deeper moisture and slightly cooler temperatures aloft will exist towards north central Florida, and higher rain chances reside there. Temperatures will be near 90 to the lower 90s at the beaches with heat indices 103-107F.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s heat indices are already in the lower and middle 90s across much of the valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 75 91 71 / 50 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 72 88 70 / 60 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 88 68 / 70 70 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 69 86 66 / 70 70 40 10 TN.
525 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 High pressure sliding into the northern plains following the retreating low pressure. The remainder of the week will feature northwest flow with slight upper ridging off the west coast and broad trof through the Great Lakes.
Cooler weather returns for the end of the week. Strengthening high pressure will result in another round of heat across the region through the remainder of the week.
Ridging dominates allowing for fair weather, today.
430 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cold front slowly worked southward through the forecast area overnight with a few thunderstorms lingering into the pre-dawn hours. Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are moving in behind the front and will bring some relief from the muggy conditions.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from West Central Illinois, East Central and West Central Missouri and back into Kansas. These dewpoints are not expected to change much today as low level moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front that will begin to arrive later this afternoon to the north of I-40, and across the remainder of the area into tonight.
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Water vapor imagery, along with model analysis, shows a large mid-upper level ridge now centered generally around the Big Bend region of Texas.
530 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light southeast to south winds, temperatures range from 77 degrees in the northern interior location of Big Pine Key to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
A weak cold front will move through the area through 18Z shifting winds from the north and occasionally gusting.
Early this morning a cold front was pushing through the area, with a complex of thunderstorms out ahead of it, mainly across central Missouri. Temperatures will be some 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the 80s, and perhaps near or slightly above 90 in far south central Missouri. Mid level ridging shifts westward, placing the mid section of the country in a northwest flow regime.
Later this evening, a secondary batch of showers and thunderstorms associated with the main mid level trough will move into the area from the northwest.
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cold front slowly worked southward through the forecast area overnight with a few thunderstorms lingering into the pre-dawn hours. Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are moving in behind the front and will bring some relief from the muggy conditions.
After some chances for a few showers and pop up thunderstorms this afternoon, could see mostly dry but cooler conditions for a few days.
Summer temperatures return as high pressure expands over Nevada today and Wednesday. High pressure expands northward on Wednesday, leading to higher temperatures the next two days. Many valleys reach the 90s this afternoon and the mid 90s Wednesday, about 5 degrees cooler for the higher valleys.
/Issued 236 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/ The main forecast concerns this morning are both in the short term, including ongoing dangerous heat and humidity and convective potential associated with a slowly moving cold front. Regarding the heat and humidity concerns, convective cloud cover will likely keep temperatures lower even across areas that remain ahead of the front, with more substantially cooler conditions - around 5 to 10 degrees cooler - across most of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
411 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal pattern through the northern CONUS with troughing over eastern Canada. At the surface, a ridge extended from southern Saskatchewan through northern Ontario while a weak trough stretched from southern WI to eastern North Dakota. Wednesday, high pressure building into the area will bring enough sunshine with inland cu to boost temps into the lower 70s south. As an upper trough axis swings through tomorrow night, look for just the slightest of chances for some light showers to pop-up, currently looking to primarily stick to the Lake Superior shoreline, with perhaps some orographic assistance in the western U.
Showers continue working across the region this morning in association with an upper low in southern Manitoba. Model guidance continues the light shower activity through the morning hours with cooler than average temperatures prevailing through the day.
A ridge moves over the Intermountain West with the center of upper level high pressure shifting west over the southwestern U. A trough sits over the eastern half of the U. The ridge over the west and the trough over the east remain in place through Wednesday night. Thu: The Tri-State area will remain on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge, in WNW-NW flow aloft -- a notoriously challenging synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances.
924 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The low status over Custer and Fallon counties is breaking up with the day time heating. As the mid level flow veers to the northwest on Wednesday, stronger energy will push across the area and tap into the higher dewpoints for a chance of showers and thundestorms.
249 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Weak high pressure from the southwest, combined with cooler post- frontal temperatures from the Canadian prairie to provide northeast Montana with very comfortable conditions for an August day.
Cooler air has been the rule, along with plenty of clouds mainly north of a line from PIR to HON. Northwesterly flow aloft remains at 500mb, with the 500mb trough exiting over northern MN. Any areas that clear out tonight will have a chance of falling into the 40s, with most locations staying in the low to mid 50s for lows.
The mid to upper level ridge over the area will slide to the west to the southern Rockies into northern Mexico for Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the ridge moving west, high temperatures are expected to be just a little lower on Wednesday.
Tomorrow, a weak (relatively) cold front will move south as the high pressure ridging shifts west. Increased cloudiness and the chance for showers will keep the northernmost counties a few degrees cooler.
A cold front has entered the state and are already seeing NW winds at KHRO and KBPK. winds will shift at all TAF sites as this cold front makes its way south through the state. Today through Wednesday Night Already starting the day off on a very warm note this mrng, with predawn temps ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
1101 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with a weak cold front stretching west across northern MT. Cooler and drier air will remain across the area today, with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
The CONSHORT guidance gave highs in the lower 70s east to upper 70s west and that looks reasonable.
Expecting the counties along the Colorado / Kansas border to be at the highest risk.
219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A west-to-east oriented cold front that has been moving through the area today is rather difficult to discern via current surface observations. However, generally north of the baroclinic zone over nwrn SD, an autumn-like airmass is in place, with mostly cloudy skies contributing to afternoon temperatures in the low 60s. The combination of these factors should accordingly correspond to an increased threat for severe weather, primarily from far nern WY into wrn SD within the sfc theta-E ridge.
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Not much changing for west central Florida for the next couple of days ridging to our north will continue our southwesterly flow.
Some clearing is expected overnight as some cooler air flows into the area.
Quiet pattern continues through Wednesday with nearly zonal flow/weak ridging and dry upstream flow.
Latest guidance shows slightly cooler temperatures today than the going forecast had, so high temperatures today were trimmed back slightly. As an upper trough axis swings through tomorrow night, look for just the slightest of chances for some light showers to pop-up, currently looking to primarily stick to the Lake Superior shoreline, with perhaps some orographic assistance in the western U.
Have the highest confidence in storms developing and strengthening in the southern Nebraska Panhandle. A cold front across northern colorado will slowly slide south brining moisture and the chance for strong storms.
High temperatures north of the Highway 2 corridor will only reach into the mid/upper 60s behind the cold frontal passage while further south, ahead of the cold front, lower 70s can be expected. Showers continue working across the region this morning in association with an upper low in southern Manitoba. Model guidance continues the light shower activity through the morning hours with cooler than average temperatures prevailing through the day.
Cooler temperatures aided by cloud cover and spotty shower activity is noted across parts of NE OK and NW AR.
Mainly dry otherwise with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Scattered showers will continue near a leftover low level trough axis this afternoon into early this evening. Fog could develop across IN/OH in the vicinity of the leftover inverted trough where clearing occurs.
313 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A sfc cold front has moved all the way through the region. Wednesday looks like a quiet weather day: Expect sunny and less humid with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 (Tonight through Wednesday) As of mid afternoon, a weak cold front was situated across the northern Big Country and extended southwest to near Midland. The aforementioned weak cold front should sag a little farther south late tonight and early Wednesday, possibly reaching the Concho Valley and Heartland counties during the morning hours. Also, temperatures will be a little cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 90s across the Big Country and 100 to 103 degrees across southern sections.
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Water vapor imagery, along with model analysis, continues to show a large mid-upper level ridge now centered generally around south central Texas.
Also tried to use the higher resolution models to time the expected lines of thunderstorms via TEMPO groups.
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Currently there is an upper level trough axis located over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. A broad area of high pressure over the southern US will shrink and position over New Mexico as this trough propagates east and deepens to the south going into tomorrow. A weak surface cold front moved over the FA last night leaving the area in primarily easterly upslope winds at the surface today.
301 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cooler temperatures and lower humidity the next day or so, followed by increasing rain chances to end the work week, are the main highlights of the forecast. A stronger push of drier air is forecast tonight as upper wave in the Northern Plains dives into the western Great Lakes and drags a cold front through much of our CWA. Associated convection should remain west of our area over western and central Nebraska, propagating south into instability axis in the High Plains. Return flow on back side of retreating high pressure will result in instability feeding into western Nebraska where afternoon convection is expected, with propagation to the south-southeast.
238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 SPC surface analysis had a trough and low-level convergent axis draped across southern Wisconsin into central Minnesota. A 925mb WNW to ESE oriented trough axis will sag southward overnight, reaching the northern forecast area late. Increasing moisture at this level, in a band of convergence along the trough axis, will probably drag some low clouds into our area.
Expecting the low cloud deck this morning to gradually erode away through the day. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: High pressure sliding into the northern plains following the retreating low pressure. The remainder of the week will feature northwest flow with slight upper ridging off the west coast and broad trof through the Great Lakes.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 75 91 71 / 50 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 72 88 70 / 70 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 88 68 / 70 70 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 69 86 66 / 70 70 40 10 TN.
1118 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Cold front slowly worked southward through the forecast area overnight with a few thunderstorms lingering into the pre-dawn hours. Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are moving in behind the front and will bring some relief from the muggy conditions.
327 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Low pressure will move east to Pennsylvania tonight, allowing drier weather to arrive.
Aside from the high terrain, mostly sunny and dry conditions continue for the lower valleys with above normal temperatures.
Surface pressure has been slowly increasing across the area today as a ridge axis slides into the area from the north behind yesterday's front. Drier air and subsidence associated with the higher pressure was allowing dewpoints to drop and skies to clear.
339 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 With the progression of the low pressure system, the area has remained cloudy this afternoon with rain showers and even a few lightning strikes in Minnesota. While instability has remained low for much of the area, some heating and rotation from the low pressure system has allowed for a near-term possibility of funnel clouds and even a brief tornado southeast of Detroit Lakes in Minnesota. With uncertainty in the rate of cloud cover diminishing, temperatures tonight could end up being cooler than expected. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer with some scattered clouds. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with mid 50s in many areas.
The ridge should continue to break down this afternoon and a cold front will approach from the North providing a better focus for lift.
This continued mixing should help keep temps slightly warmer as well as prevent fog development. With NW flow over the area as well as at the surface, have trended slightly cooler despite what should be a mostly sunny day. Cooler dewpoints are also expected on Wed.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 75 91 71 / 50 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 72 88 70 / 70 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 88 68 / 70 70 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 69 86 66 / 70 60 40 10 TN.
1028 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Drier, warmer weather is expected though Wednesday.
1217 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Early this morning a cold front was pushing through the area, with a complex of thunderstorms out ahead of it, mainly across central Missouri. Temperatures will be some 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the 80s, and perhaps near or slightly above 90 in far south central Missouri. Mid level ridging shifts westward, placing the mid section of the country in a northwest flow regime.
329 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Latest radar imagery shows a few storms forming in far southeast Oklahoma ahead of a slow moving cold front. It has been much cooler today overall, with the exception of far southeast Oklahoma and some portions of west central Arkansas, with max heat index values in the 105-110 degree range.
Otherwise, a cooler day on tap with highs generally in the 70-75 degree range. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for partly cloudy and quiet conditions.
/Issued 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/ Latest radar imagery shows a few storms forming in far southeast Oklahoma ahead of a slow moving cold front. It has been much cooler today overall, with the exception of far southeast Oklahoma and some portions of west central Arkansas, with max heat index values in the 105-110 degree range.
642 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A sfc cold front has moved all the way through the region. Wednesday looks like a quiet weather day: Expect sunny and less humid with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
A warm start to the week will settle into more seasonable to even slightly cooler temperatures later in the week. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will push variable high clouds across the region from time to time with generally dry conditions.