Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The flow aloft over our area will be zonal today, and become southwest by Thursday morning, as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest moves southeast into the central Rockies to near the Four Corners area.
A few of the high res models showing trace amounts of precipitation but thinking mostly virga with those ceilings and dry low levels. Lows will be in the lower 30s. Clouds will persist through Wednesday as the upper low moves from the Pacific northwest to western Colorado. Highs will be similar to today in the low to mid 60s. Lows Thursday night will range from the lower 20s in northeast Colorado where skies will clear to the upper 30s in north central Kansas where clouds will linger.
(Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is parked over the Natural State giving way to clear skies and drier conditions. Until then, expect cooler, more seasonable temperatures as high pressure controls the weather pattern through at least Thursday. Winds are also expected to remain gusty through this afternoon as the low pressure system, located in the Ohio Valley, continues to push further away from the state.
Highs in the low 60s compare to normals of near 50 this weekend.
Currently, weak high pressure is situated over the forecast area. With high pressure over the area, expect winds to diminish this evening and think we could see temperatures drop pretty quick over the snowpack. We did go ahead and blend the cooler previous guidance with our given NBM guidance to lean a bit toward cooler temperatures over the snowpack. Wednesday looks to bring a mix of sun and clouds with slightly warmer temperatures most areas. Normals for late October are in the lower 50s for highs and mid to upper 20s for lows.
453 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Low pressure moving across the Upper Great Lakes will drag a cold front and secondary trough through today.
(Today and tonight) The Southern Plains will be between weather systems today as the next upper-level trough approaches the Four Corners region. Light and variable winds will become southerly as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to the approaching trough.
At the surface, a weak stationary boundary extends east to west across northern South Dakota/southern North Dakota, with high pressure over the central and northern Rockies. The Pacific Northwest trough will move into the Central Plains today and tonight, before wrapping up into a closed low and pushing southward into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains on Thursday.
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (The rest of tonight) Overall, it looks like a quiet night across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with cooler and drier in place in the wake of the upper low now in the mid-Mississippi Valley region.
A cold front currently sliding SE through central NV may bring a few more light showers to portions of central NV the rest of this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Mid and high-level clouds were spreading east into western portions of Kansas early this morning downstream of an upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. The next round comes late tonight into Thursday night as the Northwest trough continues southeast through the central Rockies and into west Texas. Have maintained NBM mid-range PoPs with some concern this signal may be more transient as the upper trough is well-removed. Temperatures Thursday should be a bit cooler in at least isolated precip in north-central Kansas but overall temperatures look fairly consistent through the weekend with only modest low-level advections, close to late October normals.
The surface cold front related to this impressive mid-latitude cyclone will continue to progress southeastward through the CWFA, and should exit our southeastern counties shortly after 12Z, with a band of light sprinkles preceding the front and gusty WNW winds and low stratus clouds in its wake.
08/DML (This evening through Thursday night) Dry weather will prevail through much of the short term period as high pressure transits the region beneath a zonal flow aloft. Overnight lows the next couple of nights are expected to fall into the middle 40s across most of the area, with lower 40s possible in the typical cooler spots across central LA. Highs on Thursday are not expected to be much warmer than Wednesday, but a slight uptick in low level moisture can be expected as winds begin veering east to southeast during the day.
1257 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Showers will move through the area today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. Noticeably cooler temperatures today thanks to the clouds, rain and cold air advection behind the front. A few showers may linger past sunset in WNW flow behind the front, but these will end during the evening as high pressure noses into the region from the western Lakes.
257 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low lifting toward central Indiana early this morning. Incoming weak mid level ridging and associated negative vorticity advection has brought a cessation to the rain, and is being followed by clearing skies. Any precip should get no closer to us than western Iowa, and will largely focus even further north/west across the High Plains in the more robust low level warm, moist advection and ascent from the mid level waves. Because of this I opted to stay close to 50th percentile of NBM, with lows mainly in the lower to mid 30s. but earlier runs of HRRR was supporting some fog into west central/ central Illinois, which would seem to be the most favorable area or juxtaposition of the ridge axis and thinner clouds.
In the meantime, the latest ECMWF and GEFS ensembles are indicating that the upper level trough will be a bit slower in deepening/ cutting off over the Southern Plains late in the work week.
Forecast Discussion: Currently an upper low partially detached from the mean flow has continued to translate east into the mid/lower MS Valley regions. Quasi-zonal flow is setting up across the center of the CONUS while another Pacific trough digs into the Pacific northwest region.
(Today through Thursday) Cold front has moved through the area, and showers are well off to the east. A few light showers have developed overnight with the low cloud deck, but shouldnt amount to much across the area. Temps will be cooler today thanks to the front, with westerly winds becoming more northwesterly later today. High temps will be in the low 50s on the Plateau up to the low 60s west.
The upper level trough that is driving this system and will quickly move eastward this afternoon and continue east this evening. Cold air will return to the region with Max temperatures today much closer to normal, in the low 50. --Drier and cooler weather ahead -- Baroclinic, zonal flow will dominate the upper pattern, with high pressure through the mid to low levels. Temperatures will rebound into the weekend, with highs in the low 60s this weekend. Strong northerly flow with a lot of fetch across the lake will allow for winds and waves to ramp up behind the cold front.
1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler and drier conditions along with clear skies will prevail in the wake of last night's frontal passage in the immediate term. As such, have generally sided with the lower end of guidance for lows tonight with most inland locations seeing the 40s to near 50. Further eastward motion of high pressure will being about a further shift towards onshore winds overnight tomorrow, though increases in low temperature will only be marginal at first with values around 2-4 degrees higher than this evening's.
355 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
A reinforcing shot of colder air will being cooler highs in the 30's and 40's to northern Nevada and the 40's and 50's in central Nevada. Clearing skies will allow for cooler lows in the mid teens to lower 20's tonight and single digits in the very coldest valleys.
1053 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler weather has moved east of our area and will leave near normal highs behind it. Thursday looks to be our best chance for rain as an upper level low will dive into the eastern U. A subtle piece of energy will round the base of the upper low and will move northward into south-central and central Kansas.
In the post frontal sector, the upper low will lift northeast and along the OH River.
Discussion: An upper low was situated over southern Ohio early this morning, and will lift northeast into the eastern Great Lakes region by this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front associated with this upper low was pushing into the TN valley early this morning and will shift east into the Appalachians by daybreak or so. As such, aside from a few lingering showers with the cold front early this morning, dry conditions are expected through the short term. Still had some gusts to around 50 mph at Cove Mountain as of 2 am, and the cold front hasn't quite pushed through yet, so plan to let the advisory go until 8 AM.
414 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Showers will move through the area today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. Noticeably cooler temperatures today thanks to the clouds, rain and cold air advection behind the front. A few showers may linger past sunset in WNW flow behind the front, but these will end during the evening as high pressure noses into the region from the western Lakes.
151 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
A trough will continue digging into the Intermountain West today. While this system will be too far east to produce any measurable precipitation across our region, we will see slightly cooler temperatures and enhanced afternoon winds today as cool northerly flow prevails.
(Wednesday through Thursday) The early morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from the Cntrl Plains S through the Four State Region S into the Nrn Gulf.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) The incoming cold front from the northwest will bring moisture ahead, allowing for scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday.
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 A tight, nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to barrel northeastward over our northwestern counties tonight. Thus, the path of the low center (i. High surface pressure and broad ridging aloft will ensure another dry period through much of the week. A nearly cut-off low is forecast to move out of TX over the weekend as it re-engages with the synoptic flow. A low pressure system will slowly depart the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.
(Today and tonight) Convection ongoing mainly in the Florida panhandle with the associated cold front through southeast Alabama into the western Florida panhandle. High pressure sets up later today and lows tonight will fall into the 40s with the exception of the low 50s in the Florida Big Bend.
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Quiet conditions will be on tap today across the ArkLaMiss thanks to a cold front from the day before. Dry and cooler air has begun to filter in across the region keeping temperatures in the upper 60s across the north to low 70s across the south. While most places saw rain yesterday associated with the cold front, the dry air behind the front will be strong enough to knock dew points down below 30% across areas in the northwest and areas west of the Mississippi river. Low temperatures will be on the cooler side, in fact cooler than normal for this time of year. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 40s area wide.
Temps are falling into the low to mid 20s in the coldest areas under mostly clear skies. Signals point to best precip chances during the day Thursday confined to the eastern CWA where the low-level jet resides at least for the morning hours. Once the trough moves out Thursday evening, a low amplitude ridge pattern develops and is the dominant feature for the period.
319 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) The upper trough has passed to the east of the region and westerly upper winds are over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. An upper trough will dig southward on Wednesday night to around the Four Corners Region.
Thanks to these slackening winds and mostly clear skies, temperatures have responded with some locations falling into the lower 70s. Mean layer ridging anchored near the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico will help to steer a potent upper level low centered over the Lower Ohio River Valley to the northeast and well away from our area. A surface reflection will also move in the same general direction, orphaning a cold front later this morning. The aforementioned ridge will hold generally in place through the forecast period, helping to steer the next Pacific Low away from the southeast U. Meanwhile, at the surface, a high pressure cell will quickly move out of the Central Plains and into the New England States towards the end of the week.
Cloud cover is expected to diminish through the morning and into the afternoon, and quiet weather will persist through the day, with light winds and highs from the lower 40s north to mid 50s south.
651 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Convection ongoing mainly in the Florida panhandle with the associated cold front through southeast Alabama into the western Florida panhandle. High pressure sets up later today and lows tonight will fall into the 40s with the exception of the low 50s in the Florida Big Bend.
High pressure will slowly drift eastward today giving way to an upper level trough to dig south across the central Plains by the evening. This trough will bring some isolated chances of precipitation to western and north central Nebraska. Despite temperatures dropping overnight tonight, the current expectations is that all precipitation will remain liquid as boundary layer and surface temperatures stay above freezing. The trough, and any precipitation, quickly pushes east with a return to dry conditions by Thursday evening as high pressure builds in behind the departing system. A strong upper level low develops across the souther Plains keeping Nebraska in zonal flow through the weekend. The dry conditions continue through mid week as high pressure returns to the region keeping any weather systems out of the region.
622 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is parked over the Natural State giving way to clear skies and drier conditions. Until then, expect cooler, more seasonable temperatures as high pressure controls the weather pattern through at least Thursday. Winds are also expected to remain gusty through this afternoon as the low pressure system, located in the Ohio Valley, continues to push further away from the state.
705 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Showers will move through the area today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. Noticeably cooler temperatures today thanks to the clouds, rain and cold air advection behind the front. A few showers may linger past sunset in WNW flow behind the front, but these will end during the evening as high pressure noses into the region from the western Lakes.
TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A weak trough sets over southern Idaho and is traveling southeast. North of it, a weak ridge has has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and coupled to it in a rapidly developing split flow. Farther upstream another trough/ridge couplet sets over the Aleutian Islands with yet another large trough behind it.
607 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today and tonight) The Southern Plains will be between weather systems today as the next upper-level trough approaches the Four Corners region. Light and variable winds will become southerly as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to the approaching trough.
The upper level trough that is driving this system and will quickly move eastward this afternoon and continue east this evening. Cold air will return to the region with Max temperatures today much closer to normal, in the low 50. --Drier and cooler weather ahead -- Baroclinic, zonal flow will dominate the upper pattern, with high pressure through the mid to low levels. Temperatures will rebound into the weekend, with highs in the low 60s this weekend. A cold front stretches from near Saginaw to Jackson at 12Z. Strong northerly flow with a lot of fetch across the lake will allow for winds and waves to ramp up behind the cold front.
/TW/ Quiet conditions will be on tap today across the ArkLaMiss thanks to a cold front from the day before. Dry and cooler air has begun to filter in across the region keeping temperatures in the upper 60s across the north to low 70s across the south. While most places saw rain yesterday associated with the cold front, the dry air behind the front will be strong enough to knock dew points down below 30% across areas in the northwest and areas west of the Mississippi river. Low temperatures will be on the cooler side, in fact cooler than normal for this time of year. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 40s area wide.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 953 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into tonight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
919 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Showers will move through the area today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. Noticeably cooler temperatures today thanks to the clouds, rain and cold air advection behind the front. A few showers may linger past sunset in WNW flow behind the front, but these will end during the evening as high pressure noses into the region from the western Lakes.
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Quiet conditions will be on tap today across the ArkLaMiss thanks to a cold front from the day before. Dry and cooler air has begun to filter in across the region keeping temperatures in the upper 60s across the north to low 70s across the south. While most places saw rain yesterday associated with the cold front, the dry air behind the front will be strong enough to knock dew points down below 30% across areas in the northwest and areas west of the Mississippi river. Low temperatures will be on the cooler side, in fact cooler than normal for this time of year. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 40s area wide.
343 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A weak trough sets over southern Idaho and is travelling southeast. North of it, a weak ridge has has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and coupled to it in a rapidly developing split flow. Farther upstream another trough/ridge couplet sets over the Aleutian Islands with yet another large trough behind it.
952 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Lingering showers east of I-55 will taper off early this morning, and will be replaced by clearing skies as high pressure moves into the area from the west.
613 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Wednesday through Thursday) The early morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from the Cntrl Plains S through the Four State Region S into the Nrn Gulf.
648 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Low pressure will track to the Great Lakes today, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a few showers.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low lifting toward central Indiana early this morning. Incoming weak mid level ridging and associated negative vorticity advection has brought a cessation to the rain, and is being followed by clearing skies. Any precip should get no closer to us than western Iowa, and will largely focus even further north/west across the High Plains in the more robust low level warm, moist advection and ascent from the mid level waves. Because of this I opted to stay close to 50th percentile of NBM, with lows mainly in the lower to mid 30s. but earlier runs of HRRR was supporting some fog into west central/ central Illinois, which would seem to be the most favorable area or juxtaposition of the ridge axis and thinner clouds.
Meanwhile, an inverted, low- to midlevel trough will shift east from the northern/central High Plains into central parts of SD/NE/KS on Thursday. Low-level warm advection enhancement along the LLJ coupled with convergence along and east of the inverted trough will be the primary mechanisms driving the development of a precipitation shield over portions of the central Plains tonight and Thursday. This model trend would suggest that the individual members of the ensemble are coming into better agreement in the location of the higher precipitation amounts. We will indicate the highest PoPs (60-80%) over northeast NE, decreasing to 20-30% along and east of the MO River. In general, we expect that readings will be coolest (50-55) in northeast NE with slightly warmer conditions (55-60) elsewhere.
A weakening upper low will slide southeastward through the Northern Rockies today bringing areas of rain and snow of mainly light to moderate intensity. Precipitation totals will be light overall with the highest totals across north- central Idaho into west-central Montana, where 2-6 inches of snow is anticipated mainly above 4000 feet. A very light rain/snow mix is anticipated in the lower valleys of western Montana, watch for a few slick spots on area roadways during the morning commute.
Increasing temperatures expected until a weather system passes through the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into Thursday morning,pushing a cold front through the area reducing temperatures slightly and increasing northerly winds along the Colorado River Valley. With the trajectory of this low, the typical pre-frontal surface pressure drops that lead to the windy conditions we saw like last weekend will not be as strong, nor positioned ideally. That being said, this system is strong and cold enough to push a cold front down through the state Wednesday night and shift winds to the north which will enhance northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley. Due to the aforementioned trajectory of the low, it is a bit unclear why these HREF members are suggesting 50+ mph gusts.
958 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Low pressure will track to the Great Lakes today, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a few showers.
733 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday) Weakening high pressure over the eastern US will lose its influence on South Florida today as an area of low pressure with its associated fronts moves through the eastern US. The upper-lvl system will be fairly low amplitude so the cold front associated with it will likely stall and weaken prior to reaching our area.
926 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A thin line of showers associated with a weak cold front are slowly making their way towards our waters.
720 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into tonight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
623 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday) Cold front has moved through the area, and showers are well off to the east. A few light showers have developed overnight with the low cloud deck, but shouldnt amount to much across the area. Temps will be cooler today thanks to the front, with westerly winds becoming more northwesterly later today. High temps will be in the low 50s on the Plateau up to the low 60s west.
Light easterlies were confined to the lowest few thousand feet, with stronger west-northwest winds increasing with elevation.
542 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Lingering showers east of I-55 will taper off early this morning, and will be replaced by clearing skies as high pressure moves into the area from the west.