Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
931 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure anchored over the southeast is continuing to feed dry air through the depth of the troposphere into the Florida Keys and coastal waters. Satellite analysis reveals ample dry air along the eastern periphery of the ridge, which will continue to feed into the area overnight and through tomorrow afternoon at least. There is about a 12mb difference between surface pressure at the center of the ridge and the Caribbean, which has maintained moderate to fresh east northeasterly winds over the Keys area. Marine platforms this evening have been fairly steady between 15 to 20 knots, with winds a few knots stronger around the lower Keys than the upper Keys.
809 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper-level ridging continues across the Mid-South this evening and will keep tranquil weather in the forecast for a bit longer. Pressure/height falls ahead of this trough will increase southerly winds slightly across the Mid-South tomorrow with gusts as high as 20 mph or so. The only real change to the forecast was the inclusion of fog in the low-lying areas across west TN and north MS.
645 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Mild Autumn temperatures continue one more day Wednesday, but a cold front will sweep across central Illinois and bring widely scattered showers and storms.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms were produced across parts of northeast Nebraska and western Iowa overnight, by an approaching low pressure system. This closed upper low is expected to continue drifting across northern Nebraska today, bringing continued chances for showers and a few storms to northeast Nebraska, although the best chance for precipitation will likely be across eastern portions of South Dakota. At the surface, this system will drag a cold front through the region. Highs will generally range from the low 50s over northeast Nebraska to the low to mid 60s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Showers will clear our far northeastern counties this evening, as staunch northwesterly flow pours cooler air into the region. The cooler air mass will linger over the region through the end of the work week.
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure remains centered over the area tonight, then slides offshore mid to late week.
High pressure over the southeast US will continue to push offshore into the Atlantic through the day today. The pressure gradient on the periphery of the high will again lead to winds up to around 10mph inland and 10-15mph along the coast this afternoon. However, humidity will remain on the lower side, with PWATs well below 1". The latter portion of the week features loss of influence of Atlc high pressure, as it retreats seaward over the open Atlc.
Southerly flow under a broad mid level ridge will result in slightly warmer conditions tonight, with lows only dropping to the upper 40s/lower 50s. A greater increase in precipitable water is expected to occur late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, when the southwesterly low- level jet should reach peak intensity prior to the arrival of a weak cold front Thursday evening. Although this activity will depart the region early in the day, a second round of convection will likely evolve along the slow-moving cold front, as it pushes southeastward into the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Advection of warmer and more moist air will increase for our local area on southwest flow as the front approaches tonight into Thursday. This is expected to be enough to support showers along and just ahead of the cold front as it arrives in the JKL forecast area on Thursday afternoon. The modest warm air advection will support another night of ridge/valley temperature differences, especially in our eastern counties. Further west, the flow will make it more difficult for the broader and less sheltered valleys to remain completely decoupled, and ridge/valley differences will be less notable tonight.
Another pleasant day will be on tap for today with slightly warmer temperatures. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up today and tomorrow ranging from the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland.
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Expect dry and warm conditions with high pressure still in place. A cold front will arrive on Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Dry weather is expected today as high pressure throughout the column moves east across the Ohio Valley region. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will propagate eastward from the southern Midwest, in tandem with a cold front lent by low pressure near Hudson Bay. The upper level low will then meander around the Upper Great Lakes as broad trough troughing remains over the region.
348 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure continues today with temperatures moderating. A cold front arrives Thursday with the next chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. A ridge aloft will hold today providing dry weather with temperatures moderating several degrees over the previous day. As an upper level trough and an associated cold front approach from the west tonight, the area will see an increase in clouds and milder overnight lows. Precipitation chances increase ahead of a cold front Thursday, with the greatest likelihood of showers and storms from mid to late day as the front crosses through.
Tonight through Thursday: Southerly flow between a digging troff off the coast and slightly negatively tilted ridging with axis placement over Montana allows for middle and high clouds to stream into the area and thicken and lower with the approach of a low pressure system moving up from the south/southwest. This low pressure system and its associated frontal features eject out of the trof with a negative tilt and pass through Eastern Washington and North Idaho Wednesday allowing for cloudy skies with a good chance of light rain for most locations.
An upper ridge will build over eastern Montana as the Wyoming low moves to the east.
240 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will warm over the next few days.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms could form after 00Z this evening along a cold front that will be moving southeast across northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. LLWS forecast to develop in most areas as the low level jet increases in response to upper wave shifting east into the central Plains. /Issued 219 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ The main concerns for this forecast will be rain chances with a cold front passage tomorrow, as well as toward the end of the week as the boundary lifts back north across the area. An upper low currently over the Central Rockies will lift out over the Central and Northern Plains throughout the day tomorrow. This will help push a cold front through the area at surface tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, upper level ridge builds tonight into Wednesday to bring continued dry weather with mainly sunny skies. Sfc wave over the Upper Midwest Wednesday night will cross the lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Precipitation chances increase out ahead of an approaching cold front during the early morning hours on Thursday.
This is due in part to lifting ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through the region during the day. Winds remain breezy even as the cold front passes and turn more westerly. After this trough passes today, flow turns back NW which clears out skies and keeps seasonal temperatures around to close out the work week.
329 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will persist over the area through today, followed by a low pressure system and cold front on Thursday.
315 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A trough of low pressure will push across the area today through this evening, bringing widespread showers to the CWA. The 500 mb trough is currently over west-central Nebraska with elevated showers and thunderstorms noted over southeastern SD. Cooler temps on the back side of the trough is causing a transition from showers to snow, mainly in southwestern South Dakota. Buffer soundings for KABR from the NAM/GFS both support a transition to snow as the warmer layer above the surface is very shallow. The low pressure system should depart the region to the east tonight, with light pcpn remaining in the far eastern CWA until 3Z or so.
Overnight lows will be warmer than previous nights, ranging from around 50 in the north to 60 in the south. /15/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tomorrow: As deeper upper-level troughs dominate the weather off the West and East Coasts this afternoon, broad ridging is generally the rule across the central CONUS. A low pressure system is spinning over CO/WY, and a weak upper-level disturbance traversing the ridge axis can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery.
Total snowfall amounts from 1-2 inches still expected across northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry County, with near 3 inches possible over the Pine Ridge. By this afternoon the upper low will track into southeast South Dakota and into far sw MN and nw IA by early evening. Northwest winds behind the cold front will gusts to around 30 mph at times through mid morning, then gradually diminish this afternoon. Areas in the far eastern zones fall to 30 or the low 30s. On Thursday, effects of the cool airmass will still be felt across nctrl NE, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Upper ridging will ensue across the Rockies and into the region.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 57 75 56 72 / 0 20 60 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 74 55 69 / 0 0 50 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 74 53 68 / 0 10 60 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 48 72 54 66 / 0 0 30 50 10.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Mostly uneventful short-term forecast as southwesterly winds push warmer air into the region and skies remain clear.
117 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region through Thursday.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Water vapor shows mid/upper low centered INVOF wrn NE with assocd cold front moving thru the TX Panhandle. S of the front, across the Trans Pecos from the e side of the Davis Mtns into the Lower Trans Pecos, low-level mstr will hold within a steep mid-level LR environment resulting in the possibility of a few SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon. Mostly there will be little sensible change to the temps today, but richer mstr and proximity of higher surface pressure will attempt to keep temps cooler across the far e and se PB.
1042 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The main weather tonight and tomorrow will be the cold front that will move into northwest Oklahoma tonight around 07Z and move through all but perhaps the far southeast counties by 21/00Z.
1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Key Points: -Cold front is expected to move through the region on Wednesday morning.
Forecast models have backed off a bit on the MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight and keep the lower ceilings to our west. As a result, leaned towards MVFR ceilings as the lowest possibility for most sites. As such, the highest POPs (around 20%) will likely be over our coastal waters and SE coastal counties (ie. Lows for to- night to range from the lower/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s to the south. So, overall still pleasant fall weather but a little warmer with slowly increas- ing humidities.
A weak back door cold front moving south thru eastern NM tonight will bring a northerly wind shift to KTCC and KROW. After a windy and cooler day, a warming trend is forecast through the remainder of the work week with much less wind under the influence of high pressure.
204 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 The upper low that brought light snow to the Bighorn Mountains is now located in western Nebraska and will continue to move east, bringing it's precipitation with it. A dynamic upper trough looks to slowly move into the Pacific Northwest that will bring ample ascent and moisture with it.
308 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 An upper level low currently over the panhandle of Nebraska is expected to move nearly due east over the next several periods, moving over the Sioux Falls area around noon today and then along the IA/MN border this afternoon. The main impacts today will be a continuation of gusty winds behind a departing cold front now moving through SE MN, with high pressure now over the central MB/Sask provincial border moving in tonight.
925 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Weak high pressure aloft will lead to warming temperatures through Thursday.
1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure has moved off to the east and winds will be light overnight. Otherwise, a cold front will approach Wednesday and moisture will increase.
1129 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Water vapor loops are again showing a visually appealing cyclone moving across the region the past 24 hours. Radar imagery continues to show either upright or slantwise instability showers moving over the high plateau region. This is moving over a secondary cold front which can also be picked out by the southward moving ducted waves in the H2O imagery.
This will provide greater cloud cover and warmer temps than yesterday. The parent low will pull a cold front into the region and return showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. The cold front will push through the forecast area by Thursday night and returning dry conditions by late Thursday night. Behind the front there will be cooler and drier air filtering in, however it will not be as robust as what we experienced with our last frontal passage.
/Today through Thursday/ Wednesday's pattern will see the upper level ridge which has dominated the story for the past several days continue to weaken and drift northeast over the Great Lakes region. Rain chances will return Thursday morning, primarily across McCurtain county and southwest Arkansas as an upper level trough clips us to the north. As Thursday continues, winds will become westerly, shifting to northerly as a weak frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough makes its way southward through the region.
High temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 80s north to upper 80s to near 90 south. Precip chances this morning will be confined well east of the region, and this afternoon and evening to the west across the higher terrain of Mexico. A weak cold front is forecast to stall well north of the region tonight into Thursday morning.
With light winds and clear skies and dewpoints just below freezing, frost is likely along I-70 and as far south as Garden City.
A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this afternoon, but likely stall near or north of the I-20 corridor tonight.
1240 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure continues today with temperatures moderating. A cold front arrives Thursday with the next chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. A ridge aloft will hold today providing dry weather with temperatures moderating several degrees over the previous day. As an upper level trough and an associated cold front approach from the west tonight, the area will see an increase in clouds and milder overnight lows. A cold front approaches and moves through the region on Thursday, bringing with it scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures Thursday will run above normal, with upper 60s to mid 70s for the lowlands, and upper 50/60s for the higher terrain.
Moisture continues to circle around the low, still rain on much of the SD plains, but changing to snow farther west. Precipitation will shift out of our area today as the low pushes eastward, and most parts of the CWA will see clearing skies and decreasing winds. Milder and drier weather can be expected through the rest of the week, as an upper ridge builds behind the exiting low.
/issued 809 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ Upper-level ridging continues across the Mid-South this evening and will keep tranquil weather in the forecast for a bit longer. Pressure/height falls ahead of this trough will increase southerly winds slightly across the Mid-South tomorrow with gusts as high as 20 mph or so. The only real change to the forecast was the inclusion of fog in the low-lying areas across west TN and north MS. The upper low will track across the Upper MS Valley on Wednesday into Wednesday night with a weak cold front moving through the Mid-South.
1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Another day more typical of late-summer across the upper midwest as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s across much of the area under plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will plummet as the rain ends with strong cold advection developing behind a cold front. Lows in the upper 20s look possible across portions of central Minnesota Thursday morning along with wind chills in the low 20s. Cool and dry weather is expected Thursday and into the weekend as broad Canadian high pressure sits over the Upper Midwest. High temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected each day along with lows near freezing.
A cold front stretched from low pressure near Hudson Bay to the MN Arrowhead to another low in western KS. The central plains low will move toward NE Nebraska and NW Iowa late tonight, as a cold front sags south through northern WI. Low pressure will move into SE MN by Wednesday evening, with the cold front becoming stationary across southern WI. Isentropic lift will develop over the forecast area in advance of the low, leading to increasing shower development during the day. Highs on Wednesday should range from the lower to middle 50s far north to the lower to middle 60s south.
The northern flank of the mean-layer ridge centered over the Yucatan will erode over the next few days, allowing lower heights and deep westerlies to overtake the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. As the high progresses east, warm air advection will moisten and warm the BL. The deepest moisture will take about 48-hours to lift northward out of the Caribbean, in conjunction with weak troughiness at the surface from the vacationing frontal boundary which moved southward through the Keys a couple days ago.
A modest elevated mixed layer moves in tonight and should keep most locations dry as lower levels moisten ahead of a cold front. Can't completely rule out a stray shower near the upper low in the far northwest counties or perhaps another high-based shower or two in central and eastern areas with some suggestions of mid-level moisture atop the EML, though the chances for any wetting rains are quite small. Cool conditions are the main story Wednesday night into Thursday night as a weak high pressure ridge builds in. Conditions for frost still looking modest with some northwest wind persisting through the night Wednesday night under increasing cirrus and this high cloud possibly still in place through Thursday night as warm-air advection returns.
Dry weather, high pressure, and mostly mild easterly winds will continue through the rest of today with winds becoming more mild overnight with low level clouds increasing to scattered levels by Wednesday morning. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to upper 50s with cooler temperatures occurring in southeast Georgia and in the 60s for areas near the coast and along the St Johns River. Prevailing flow will shift about to become more westerly as high pressure continues to move off to the east ahead of a cold front projected to move across the eastern US.
214 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Water vapor satellite shows an upper level low spinning over western Nebraska continuing to trek eastward into the northern Plains. Surface observations also show a stout cold front draped from northeast Kansas to south-central Kansas. This cold front continues to push southeastward across the state, and most of Kansas, with the exception of far southeast Kansas, will be in the cooler and drier post-frontal airmass by late this morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight with a cold front passage.
Today is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week as southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching low pressure system and cold front. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region by Thursday, dragging a cold front across the region late tonight and Thursday morning. Otherwise, the return of dry weather and clearing skies should aid temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s in the wake of the cold front.
Temperatures will rise to the mid 80s across the interior while staying in the lower 80s across the coast.
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 An upper level low currently over the panhandle of Nebraska is expected to move nearly due east over the next several periods, moving over the Sioux Falls area around noon today and then along the IA/MN border this afternoon. The main impacts today will be a continuation of gusty winds behind a departing cold front now moving through SE MN, with high pressure now over the central MB/Sask provincial border moving in tonight.
An upper level low currently over the panhandle of Nebraska is expected to move nearly due east over the next several periods, moving over the Sioux Falls area around noon today and then along the IA/MN border this afternoon. The main impacts today will be a continuation of gusty winds behind a departing cold front now moving through SE MN, with high pressure now over the central MB/Sask provincial border moving in tonight.
Wednesday and Thursday will be warmer than average with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
919 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure continues today with temperatures moderating. A cold front arrives Thursday with the next chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. A ridge aloft will hold today providing dry weather with temperatures moderating several degrees over the previous day. As an upper level trough and an associated cold front approach from the west tonight, the area will see an increase in clouds and milder overnight lows. Precipitation chances increase ahead of a cold front Thursday, with the greatest likelihood of showers and storms from mid to late day as the front crosses through.
320 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 The potent mid-level cyclone that moved across the region the past 24-36 hours has exited stage right and is now trekking into the northern Plains. Water vapor imagery reveals subsident northwest flow in the system's wake as a ridge builds in across the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Other than some mid/high level clouds (associated with a stream of moisture rounding the base of a deep trough off the West Coast) spilling eastward over the ridge, expect a fair amount of sunshine today across most of the Western Slope. Thus, anticipate overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than where they bottom out this morning.
729 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will warm over the next few days.
404 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Latest trough continues to sweep east across central Nebraska this morning, with wraparound northwest winds across eastern WY and the Nebraska Panhandle. The NW flow has been able to produce a couple snow bands off the highest mountains recently, but moisture is more limited, causing only light flurries. Weak H5 ridging will build across WY today, with quickly moderating conditions, as highs recover into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Quieter weather ahead with a ridge of high pressure building across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area through the weekend.
844 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Dry conditions will continue today but moisture return is occurring as the ridge axis shifts to the east. Southerly flow in the low- levels is also forecast today as the low-level high shifts further to the east off the Carolina and Georgia coast. The parent low will pull a cold front into the region and return showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. The cold front will push through the forecast area by Thursday night and returning dry conditions by late Thursday night. Behind the front there will be cooler and drier air filtering in, however it will not be as robust as what we experienced with our last frontal passage.