Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will bring cooler and drier air and a decrease in wind speeds. Return flow quickly kicks in tomorrow as a trough develops across the western Dakotas.
High pressure will continue to ridge down the lake from Lake Superior. As the high moves to our east Monday the winds will veer more to the southeast but winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft levels. An advancing warm front will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. A band of isolated showers will move across Sauk to near Madison near a weak warm front early this evening. Better chance area wide Monday night with a warm front. 925 temps rather toasty well into the teens celsius so warm day on tap though cooler again near the lake with an onshore southeast flow.
1049 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Deepening low pressure track slowly northeast off the New England coast through Monday.
The showers were associated with a split upper level trough. The axis of the trough resides to our west and will gradually shift into our area on Monday. Bulk of the moisture will remain to our south, but still enough for a slight chance of afternoon showers over the higher terrain. High temps will be several degrees warmer, although still a few degrees below normal.
755 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Deepening low pressure track slowly northeast off the New England coast through Monday.
845 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 A weak cold front will move south across the region tonight.
1030 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 An anomalous upper ridge will migrate from the Mississippi Valley to the east coast through late week and produce much warmer and drier days.
Tonight and Monday As of mid afternoon, a warm front was draped across central Minnesota into far southwest Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The warm front is expected to move little over the next 24 hours. Monday Night Through Sunday Southwest flow aloft through mid week will support a more active pattern with warmer temperatures, more unstable conditions and several chances for showers and storms.
In the lower layers, guidance and current observations suggest some sct-bkn stratus developing across parts of Central and SE Texas after 09z Monday morning. The upper ridging will give way to a more amplified western U.
Lingering bands of midlevel clouds will be slowly pushed off to the northeast with time, as flow takes on more of a northerly component with ridge axis tipping into the Great Lakes. Also, gusty northwest winds will diminish early this evening as the pressure gradient weakens between high pressure approaching from the west and an exiting coastal low. Western trough is projected to amplify and drift toward the Central CONUS by late in the week, pushing upper ridge from Mid-West to Eastern CONUS. Much warmer temperature and dry weather may be anticipated for much of the period. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure settles in from the northwest.
1229 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will prevail throughout the week. The only concern in regards to weather elements is the risk for ground fog after 3 or 4 am, mainly south of I-16 in GA where the lowest condensation pressure deficits occur in sync with cross- over temps being achieved. No changes to ongoing forecast reasoning for this period as high pressure at the surface and aloft will provide above-normal temperatures, minimal cloud cover and rain-free conditions.
511 PM MDT Sun May 14 2017 UPDATED AVIATION An upper level trof will move through the region tonight producing a few sprinkles.
731 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through the work-week. There is northwest flow aloft across the region with strengthening low-level inversions as high pressure builds in from the west. An anomalously deep upper low will move northeast off the New England coast. A weak short wave trough is forecast to move through the area during the day Monday, but air mass appears dry and with weak instability.
Tonight through Monday: Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure aloft, warm and dry weather has returned to the ArkLaMiss region today. Warmer temperatures are expected across the area tomorrow afternoon as the ridge strengthens. Humidity will be low enough during the afternoon hours that heat index values will not be much warmer than the air temperature. /NF/ Monday night through Sunday: Overall a dry and warmer than normal week is expected for most of the CWA with the next best chance for widespread rain not anticipated until Sunday. Come Monday evening wl have upper 50 to lower 60 degree dew points back across the region with a mid level ridge overhead and a 1014mb high centered just to our south.
Otherwise 850mb temperatures warm about 6F to 11F across the area supporting highs in the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado, upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. A weak disturbance aloft ahead of a developing trough on the west coast generates thunderstorms along the dry line located just east of the Colorado border.
It is this boundary that is expected to sag southwestward later tonight and evolve into a warm front somewhere across central IA tomorrow.
1102 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 Remaining shower activity exiting the area ahead of a weak cold front moving across the area. Overnight, the front is expected to stall, and lift back to the north as a warm front. Best chances appear to be 18Z and after with daytime heating combined with warm front lifting north as short waves continue to train from southwest to northeast. The low level jet noses into the region by mid evening and could be the catalyst for convective development.
2 PM temperatures have risen into the mid/upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s warmer spots with light winds. Surface and upper level high pressure across the Deep South and southeast states continued to control the general weather situation. The high pressure will finally begin moving further to the east, more firmly placing the area in a surface southwesterly flow pattern. As such, low temperatures will be a bit warmer, into the lower 60s.
One more mild night tonight before we begin to see higher relative humidity and warmer temperatures ahead of our next rain chances by midweek.
This afternoon an upper level trough was located across northern CA. A lead upper level trough was lifting northeast across the northern high plains into south central Canada. The upper level trough across northern CA will amplify into a closed upper low as it slowly digs southeast into southern CA through the day on Monday. An upper level ridge over the central plains this afternoon will shift east across the mid and lower MS river valley by late this afternoon. Most other models show the better isentropic lift shifting northward into southern and central NE along and north of a developing surface warm front.
1243 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Deepening low pressure tracks slowly northeast off the New England coast through Monday.
Expect the storms to last into early Wed morning as the LLJ intensifies and the aforementioned trough passes over KS/OK. A brief break in the convective action is expected Wed as moisture is pushed east and much drier follows the trough. The forecast becomes a little tricky Thu-Weekend as a closed upper low moves over the central and southern Rockies. Rain chances will continue into the weekend as a cold front moves through and the main axis of the mid to upper trough remains west of the Southern Plains through early Sun.
With the clear sky tonight, have trended twd the cooler guidance despite the persistent sly wind albeit light. With the upper ridge in place, any convection is expected to remain north of the area. As for temps, have once again trended aoa the warmer guidance with SW flow thru low levels and a mostly clear sky. The influence of surface and upper ridging will contribute to quiet weather and very warm temperatures (mid/upper 80s to near 90 deg F) through the early part of the week.
1017 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 A weak cold front will continue to move south across the region tonight.
705 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 Cold front located from Warroad to Fosston to just west of Detroit Lakes per obs/radar. Main boundary/inverted trough axis is nearing the North Dakota/Minnesota border late this afternoon. Temperatures look to be a bit cooler tonight (relative to last night) for the areas that didn't get quite as warm today, while the southern valley will stay pretty mild in the 50s after reaching into the low 80s this afternoon. One last day of area-wide above normal temperatures (70s for most with lower 80s again across the south) before a change to cooler conditions for the rest of the week.
The low risk across is western and north central Nebraska based on isolated storm coverage.
903 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure has moved off to the east and winds are light southerly. Winds will remain light overnight but models indicating a warm front beginning to develop over the area. Upper level ridging continues to edge eastward toward the Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
601 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 Upper level ridging continues to edge eastward toward the Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
/issued 259 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017/ High pressure continues to our east, and a light onshore flow has been setting up this afternoon.
Weak boundary in our far eastern fcst area and with setting sun dont expect any additiona shower threat as the front/trough washes out and winds go light. Main boundary/inverted trough axis is nearing the North Dakota/Minnesota border late this afternoon. Temperatures look to be a bit cooler tonight (relative to last night) for the areas that didn't get quite as warm today, while the southern valley will stay pretty mild in the 50s after reaching into the low 80s this afternoon. One last day of area-wide above normal temperatures (70s for most with lower 80s again across the south) before a change to cooler conditions for the rest of the week.
645 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 The mid/upper ridge axis has translated eastward while the H85 thermal ridge remains parked across the Southern & Central High Plains region. This thermal ridge will remain in place on Mon allowing highs to approach 90 in a few locations. Another more vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to build over the Central Great Basin area and into the Central Rockies Thu-Fri before eventually moving eastward across the Plains.
Ridging is in place across the CWA with clear skies and calm wind across the area. /TW/ Prior discussion below: ridge of high pressure aloft, warm and dry weather has returned to the ArkLaMiss region today. Warmer temperatures are expected across the area tomorrow afternoon as the ridge strengthens. Humidity will be low enough during the afternoon hours that heat index values will not be much warmer than the air temperature. /NF/ Monday night through Sunday: Overall a dry and warmer than normal week is expected for most of the CWA with the next best chance for widespread rain not anticipated until Sunday. Come Monday evening wl have upper 50 to lower 60 degree dew points back across the region with a mid level ridge overhead and a 1014mb high centered just to our south.
High pressure remains over Middle Tennessee leaving a wind forecast.
The upper ridging will give way to a more amplified western U.
746 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure will build over NC tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0.
1148 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure. a upper level trough. As high pressure begins to move eastward.
The convection itself should remain west of the CWA were the greater instability and the low level jet resided. southerly flow continuing to transport low level moisture back into the region should help temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer for most locations.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1016 mb ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States.
Gusty south winds over 20 KTS otherwise expected mid morning through the afternoon as lee trough continues. Winds will further increase late afternoon at KABI and KSJT as the lee trough strengthens. Lee trough will continue to bring gusty south winds over 20 KTS at times mid morning Monday through the afternoon. As for temperatures, low level moisture will increase and provide for slightly warmer overnight temperatures. Models suggest some low cloudiness possible by sunrise Monday morning, but models also tend to over estimate the extent of the low clouds the first night of better return flow. Highs on Monday about where they are today, reaching the low to mid 90s. (Monday night through Sunday) An upper level trough will be located across the Great Basin region Monday night, putting West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft.
Otherwise, model soundings and time-height plots indicate that conditions should be VFR by 17Z all terminals (KCRP last) but with the approach of the upper trough will likely see some thicker cirrus over South Texas during the late morning and afternoon. Upper level ridge will continue to slowly shift to the east during the short term as upper trough moves into the southwest US. Moisture increases further by Monday night ahead of upper trough with PW values climbing at or above 1. Convection should develop over the higher terrain of Mexico along the dryline and propagate eastward.
Extensive ridge of high pressure aloft will work its way slowly east through the MS River Valley and into the Ohio River Valley during the period, keeping skies generally on the clear side.
640 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 Remaining shower activity exiting the area ahead of a weak cold front moving across the area. Overnight, the front is expected to stall, and lift back to the north as a warm front. Best chances appear to be 18Z and after with daytime heating combined with warm front lifting north as short waves continue to train from southwest to northeast. The low level jet noses into the region by mid evening and could be the catalyst for convective development.
510 PM PDT Sun May 14 2017 A series of upper level lows will move over the West Coast beginning today and through the middle of the week, bringing cool weather, with extensive night through morning low clouds and patchy drizzle. Dry and warmer weather is expected at the end of the week. Am upper low over northern CA will drop southward tonight. Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft as the upper low approaches should cause the marine layer to deepen even further, with widespread clouds expected in all coastal and valley areas, pushing into the coastal slopes and into the northern slopes as well.
1146 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 Weak frontal boundary/trough remains over the eastern fcst area but light winds on either side so probably will not go much farther before dissolving. Main boundary/inverted trough axis is nearing the North Dakota/Minnesota border late this afternoon. Temperatures look to be a bit cooler tonight (relative to last night) for the areas that didn't get quite as warm today, while the southern valley will stay pretty mild in the 50s after reaching into the low 80s this afternoon. One last day of area-wide above normal temperatures (70s for most with lower 80s again across the south) before a change to cooler conditions for the rest of the week.
Showers have all but ended for the night, with only eastern half of Miami metropolitan area with realistic chance for showers through about 10 PM as cold front slides off the southern Peninsula thereafter.
Under mostly clear skies, overnight lows in the lower-mid 60s are expected inland with upper 60s along the Gulf Coast.
727 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide fair weather and seasonably mild temperatures through Monday. A warm front will move through the area Monday night bringing a low chance of thunderstorms.
1018 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 An anomalous upper ridge will migrate from the Mississippi Valley to the east coast through late week and produce much warmer and drier days.
Clouds and showers are decreasing now with the sunset, loss of daytime heating, and as a weakening upper trough pulls away to the east.
Weak upper level ridging will continue aloft over Arkansas as upper level troughing remains in place over the far northeastern and southwestern portions of the CONUS. Tonight Through Monday Night High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas during the short term. Clear skies are expected under the high pressure. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s and then in the lower to mid 60s Monday night.
/issued 332 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017/ Not much change in the forecast as high pressure is over the area keeping us dry and warm.
A couple of weather systems will maintain an onshore flow bringing breezy conditions and cooler than normal temepratures through mid week. Satellite and radar loops show a mid/upper trough dropping slowly south toward central CA with scattered showers and thunderstorms rotating cyclonically around the low pressure center over northern CA. Onshore flow continues over our area in advance of this approaching trough, with temperatures running around 5-10 degrees below climo. Models are in good agreement, sliding the low pressure center slowly southeast across the state, moving across our area tonight through Monday. As the center of the upper low and cold air aloft moves overhead Monday there will be some thunderstorms possible over the Sierra as well.
856 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure remains in place over the southeast this evening. This weakness in the ridge has allowed moisture to return quickly northward into the area and remain trapped under the temperature inversion. The best bet of more widespread fog should be near and south of the Tennessee River, where dewpoints might be in the lower 60s (thus the boundary layer in this area could be saturated for a longer period of time). The high pressure will finally begin moving further to the east, more firmly placing the area in a surface southwesterly flow pattern. As such, low temperatures will be a bit warmer, into the lower 60s.
High pressure remains in place over the southeast this evening. This weakness in the ridge has allowed moisture to return quickly northward into the area and remain trapped under the temperature inversion. The best bet of more widespread fog should be near and south of the Tennessee River, where dewpoints might be in the lower 60s (thus the boundary layer in this area could be saturated for a longer period of time). The high pressure will finally begin moving further to the east, more firmly placing the area in a surface southwesterly flow pattern. As such, low temperatures will be a bit warmer, into the lower 60s.
950 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 A weak surface cold front will drop southward from southern Virginia into central NC overnight.
701 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front over Lake Erie will drop to the Ohio Valley today and become nearly stationary. High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the area later today into Monday.
These will continue to slowly die off as mixing subsides and the low level pressure gradient relaxes. Mid-level clouds will linger for several more hours as well, before being pushed out by advancing high pressure and a mid-level ridge. Western trough is projected to amplify and drift toward the Central CONUS by late in the week, pushing upper ridge from Mid-West to Eastern CONUS. Much warmer temperature and dry weather may be anticipated for much of the period. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure settles in from the northwest.
1158 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017 The mid/upper ridge axis has translated eastward while the H85 thermal ridge remains parked across the Southern & Central High Plains region. This thermal ridge will remain in place on Mon allowing highs to approach 90 in a few locations. Another more vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to build over the Central Great Basin area and into the Central Rockies Thu-Fri before eventually moving eastward across the Plains.
A series of low pressure systems will pass mainly north of the area this week.
505 PM MDT Sun May 14 2017 The upper analysis shows a broad ridge over the Great Plains, with an upper trough over the western CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Latest sfc analysis depicts high pressure over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, surrounded by low pressure arcing eastward from Saskatchewan into the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska, then back westward into western Kansas and then into southeastern Colorado. The upper trough will continue to dig southeastward into the four corners region on Monday, with more disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft affecting the forecast area. This will aid convective development in the convergence zone over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
there is a front now nearly stationary over eastern MN/western WI which is anticipated to back southwestward overnight as Great Lakes high pressure drops southeast. By 18z Monday the southwest US trough will be entering western Iowa and weak height falls should enhance the potential for thunderstorms mainly along and north of the retreating front. Monday the upper ridge remains in place over the Upper Midwest as a deep trough cuts into the southwest U. The surface response to this will be a low developing on the lee of the Rockies with a warm front extending across northern Iowa/southern MN.
After a rather mild start in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday morning, Friday afternoon will also be unseasonably warm as a deep amplitude mid level trof and associated cold front move east into the plains. Increasing mid/high clouds along/west of the MS River may hold temperatures back a little, but all locations should still reach into the lower and mid 70s.
536 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 A low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow across the the Inland Northwest into this morning.
413 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Cooler with a few showers today, especially over the mountains.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Southeastern United States this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over Western Cuba today.
832 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant weather.
High pressure will return for the weekend. A trough crossing the western United States is responsible for the major shift in the weather. An ejecting trough will bring a front through much of the state this morning. The main trough will cross the area later this afternoon, reinforcing the earlier cold front.
/issued 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ Another very nice day will get underway shortly albeit with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer along with more humid air. High pressure sitting off the eastern seaboard today will allow for moderate southerly winds to develop by this afternoon. Of course the big weather maker continues to be the strong cold front that will begin impacting the area as early as tomorrow morning across southeast Texas where isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin developing before spreading east into Louisiana by Friday afternoon.
625 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 A low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow across the the Inland Northwest into this morning.
A cold front has moved through the area this morning bringing winds to 50 MPH and snow to around 3000 feet MSL. Meanwhile, a line of showers associated with a cold front in eastern Oregon will move into southwest Idaho this morning. Most of the showers will occur in the higher elevations. The main concern will be the winds behind the cold front. An upper trough aligned to the west of the cold front will move into our area this afternoon, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler today. Showers will diminish tonight and end for most of the area on Friday as an upper ridge builds into the region. High temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees warmer on Friday.
Ridge rebounding today with highs in the 60s and 70s.