Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY TODAY. TRANSITIONED A FZDZ/FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST. AND THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST GETTING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. WITH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND EVEN AT THE SFC. WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE AS WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA.
917 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE AREA WHICH IS APPARENT IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES REPORTED THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LEVY COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY ARE COMING IN AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WE DID SEE SOME BRIEF AREAS RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD IN LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy with light winds through afternoon, with highs in the lower 30s. Further south, enough warming will occur aloft to support a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow south of I-70. Total ice accumulations will remain less than one quarter of an inch before surface temperatures rise above freezing by mid-morning.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 40 47 30 / 70 100 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 37 42 28 / 80 100 60 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 40 36 42 26 / 90 100 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 36 43 25 / 90 100 60 30 NC.
228 AM PST SAT FEB 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
EXCEPT FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES EAST. THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL DIG A TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
with an ongoing wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain now confined to areas mainly south of I-70. Main cold front expected to dive south across the region later this afternoon and evening. much cooler air to begin working into the area overnight as strong high pressure on the order of 1045+ mb quickly builds south the upper Midwest.
541 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015 /12Z TAFS/ Look for MVFR ceilings this morning to clear, from north to south, as a cold front moves south across West Central Texas today. /ISSUED 332 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/ (Today and tonight) A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and bring cooler temperatures. Highs today will track the front, with cooler numbers over the Big County.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NOW. WITH UPPER LOW REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER HUDSON BAY. WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
539 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015 Cold front has pushed to near the Pecos River as of 11z with a gusty north wind along it. A cold front will move through the Permian Basin this morning then hang up around the Pecos River. Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough will approach the Four Corners region, backing flow aloft to the SW.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH CAA AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP AROUND -20C IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON.
Further south, enough warming will occur aloft to support a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow south of I-70. Total ice accumulations will remain less than one quarter of an inch before surface temperatures rise above freezing by mid-morning.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING MAY BE RAIN GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ABOVE FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURE LAYER WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 40 47 30 / 70 100 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 37 42 28 / 80 100 60 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 40 36 42 26 / 90 100 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 36 43 25 / 90 100 60 30 NC.
IN TURN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING WINDS AND SNOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BOISE MTNS AND DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.
447 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 NWD MOVG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT FOR TIME BEING. AS SEEN BY WILD TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE VALLEYS AND RIDGES OF THE OUACHITA MTNS. EXPECT TSTMS SOUTH OF I-30 TO POSSIBLY BECOME STG AS SOME DIURNAL HTG TO OCCUR BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
Freezing rain will linger farther south across far southern Missouri but may mix with sleet or snow as it ends. the freezing cold air held on longer than models anticipated. Temperatures will not change much through sunrise with most locations holding just at the freezing mark or just slightly below freezing. A storm system will be out to our west across the High Plains region into Texas on Sunday.
WE ARE STARTING THE MORNING A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WE COULD VERY WELL END UP WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES /INCLUDING BILLINGS/ AS THERE IS A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD WHEN THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER BEFORE THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS. THEN A SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
804 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INTENSIFYING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEMPHIS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST. 73 /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ SCT -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN 23Z-01Z. ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS THERE. AREAS SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE AND FRANKLIN CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY AND RAIN LATER PER TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES. THE MIXING LINE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE POINTING MORE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY KEEPING THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM ADVANCING AS FAR NORTH. WENT WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR A TERRE HAUTE TO FRANKLIN TO GREENSBURG CORRIDOR. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER 00Z MOS TODAY PER COOLER TRENDS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM WHICH WILL PUT ON AN TO ANY LINGERING SNOW THIS EVENING.
647 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING MUCH OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE CWA TROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED IF THE WEAK WARM FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND A LIKELY STATUS DECK SPREADING BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS. SFC TEMPS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.
1011 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INTENSIFYING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
804 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED IF THE WEAK WARM FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING THE SFC UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS BAND OF SNOW IS UP BY THE TWIN CITIES ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. RADAR IS PICKING UP ON IT WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES BEING IN THE 1-2SM RANGE OVER A WIDTH OF ABOUT 3 COUNTIES.
LATEST SERIES OF ASOS OBS AT CSV INDICATES THAT JUST OVER 4/10 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE ABOUT 11 PM WHEN IT SWITCHED OVER. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z AND THE RADAR INDICATES CONTINUOUS FREEZING RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR THAT AREA. THE FREEZING RAIN BEGAN AROUND 730 PM SO THERE WAS A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURRED. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN TOTALS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. ON SUNDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE GULF REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK AND SW AR IN THE VCNTY OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. /ISSUED 447 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ NWD MOVG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT FOR TIME BEING. AS SEEN BY WILD TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE VALLEYS AND RIDGES OF THE OUACHITA MTNS. EXPECT TSTMS SOUTH OF I-30 TO POSSIBLY BECOME STG AS SOME DIURNAL HTG TO OCCUR BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW-MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY. ITS ALREADY CONSIDERABLY WARMER THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. AND HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS CLOSER TO THE COAST ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH WITH 15-20KTS OFFSHORE ON BACK SIDE.
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP INTO THE YUKON ALONG 130-140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT AND A NEW CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER NEVADA ON SUNDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
848 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH ALONG PLATEAU WILL LET ICE STORM WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST BUT WILL ISSUED SPS TO MENTION TEMPS NOW ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS. BUT STILL COULD BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS ARE RIGHT AT 32 DEGREES BUT WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CRUISING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTWHESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR OUT AHEAD AN APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO DRIZZLE AND OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY. WITH A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/ FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
STRONG SE WINDS WAS HELPING TEMPS TO FINALLY GO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER PORTIONS OF NE AL AND SRN MID TN STILL HAD A FEW LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING MAY BE RAIN GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ABOVE FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURE LAYER WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A STORM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGS COOLER.
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA MOVES OFF THE COAST.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AT MEMPHIS. /ISSUED 541 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ STILL WATCHING A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SIMILAR WARMING TO THE NORTH AND BE DONE WITH OUR FREEZING RAIN THREAT BY 6 AM WHEN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY BORDERLINE FREEZING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND TEMPERATURES MAY COOL FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GET SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS EXITING. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER END OF IFR CONDITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE.
741 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE AREA TODAY. RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WON'T BE QUITE AS LARGE. BUT SOME EASTERN VALLEYS COULD STILL REACH THE LOW 30S. THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ONCE MORE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING AREAWIDE.
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 WEAK FEATURES PASS BOTH TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM LACROSSE THROUGH JETMORE AND HUGOTON. IN SPITE OF SOME COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. ON MONDAY, SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS A BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS INDIANA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain centered inland of the West Coast, maintaining a dry and stable northwest flow aloft over the region.
High pressure to the north of the region will move off to the east of the area overnight. As this ridge moves to the east, the low level flow will begin to include more of a southerly component which will lead to increasing Gulf moisture. With the return of low level moisture and increasing clouds, expect temperatures to be much warmer overnight, generally in the lower 50s across the area.
624 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 Mostly cloudy skies were being seen across the area this afternoon and that is keeping temperatures cooler than yesterday but still seasonably mild for this time of year. Upper level low near West Texas will slowly work across the southern U.
AT LEAST STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WILL BE A NICE WELCOMED CHANGE AND LOWS IN THE 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.
/ISSUED 251 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS, A SUBTLE SHRTWV WILL BE FORCED NORTH, INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WERE OBSERVED FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EUFAULA WHICH HASN'T HAD AS MUCH CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND WAS ALLOWED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 50S.
AS THE UPPER LOW LEAVES THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN LINE WITH AN AMPLIFYING SURFACE TROF. THICK CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS HAVE KEPT SOME AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS ON THE MARCH THIS AFTERNOON TRACKING EASTWARD.
Weak front extending from near MCI southeast through FAM will dissipate as surface ridging strengthens over the OH and TN Valley regions late tonight.
DONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
717 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TODAY WITH NOT AS COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE ALLOWING FOR WARMER/MOIST AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THICK CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS HAVE KEPT SOME AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS ON THE MARCH THIS AFTERNOON TRACKING EASTWARD.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN TX ON MONDAY. AND FURTHER AIDED BY INCREASING UPPER LVL SPEED DIVERGENCE AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS WELL SWD INTO MEXICO. IN THE EVENT THAT THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. UPPER LOWS TO SET UP OVER SW STATES THRU REST OF PERIOD.
1003 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
729 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER STARTING OUT THE MORNING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK. THERE IS A WEAK/SUBTLE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REESTABLISH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE WE WON'T BE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE TOMORROW THAN WE ARE TODAY.
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STALLED COLD FRONT. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH SHOULD COOL MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
ESPECIALLY THE HIGH VARIETY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUE NIGHT. BUT DEEP MOIST FETCH AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ENCOURAGE SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER WRN KY WELL INTO TUE NIGHT. AND ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS MOS SEEMED THE CLOSEST TO REALITY THAN THE COOLER NAM. FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON AN UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LAST BIT OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT WE WILL SEE. A COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT IN THE PANHANDLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TROUGH THE FA TONIGHT SWINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
Moisture will be on the increase tomorrow as a low pressure system begins to eject northeast out of Texas. Regardless of clouds, with southerly winds temperatures should rise into the lower 50s in the north to the upper 50s in the south.
526 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED VCNTY NM BOOTHEEL TO CONTINUE SAGGING SEWD AS NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTO NM AFT 09/06Z.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
A frontal boundary continues to move slowly south and bisects the area at this hour, with slightly cooler temperatures to the north and northerly winds, while areas to the south are approaching 70 with southerly winds. I-70 corridor remains light and variable right under the surface trof. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler in the lower 60s with cooler temperatures aloft associated with the system passing just to our south.
LIGHT WINDS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP WHICH ALONG WITH FAIR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE WARMER HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE AND VERIFICATION OF LATE OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE CLOSER TO WARMER ECMWF AND HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS FROM MID-UPPER 40S NORTHEAST CWA TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST CWA.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COUPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUES/TUES NGT.
A COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOP. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT IN BRINGING WHAT HAS ALL THE ATTRIBUTES OF A WARM FRONT INTO THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED TOTALS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST HAVE GENERALLY 2 T0 3 INCHES TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO RETREAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED BY A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DESPITE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING TO THE WEST. BUT THE WARM FRONT TOMORROW CERTAINLY THROWS IN A CURVEBALL. BUT ALONG THE COAST COULD WARM INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 60S IF THIS WARM FRONT BEHAVES AS INDICATED. SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW NIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING WILL NOT GET TOO COLD.
Slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected for Monday, but light winds and at least partial sunshine will keep conditions feeling spring-like throughout the region.
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CURRENT BIAS-CORRECTED NUMERICAL DATA. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO.