Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
West winds near mountain top level will increase further tonight and Saturday morning, resulting in moderate to locally strong west winds continuing in the higher terrain.
Cool front moves across the area overnight, with slightly cooler temperatures moving in for Saturday.
Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface extending from the mid Atlantic coast southwest into the northern Gulf will weaken somewhat, but otherwise remain in place through the near term period.
High pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the region. Temperatures this morning on average starting out similar to yesterday, although some locales like the Bisbee Douglas Airport, which dipped down to 40 degrees, were a bit cooler, dare I say chilly.
A strong southwest flow is over the Great Basin this morning downstream from a broad upper trof in the Gulf of Alaska. The flow backs around and increases again Sat aftn ahead of the next cold short wave ejecting out of the broad ern PAC trof and surface winds could actually be stronger than today. A major portion of the ern Pac trof slides inland Mon bringing yet colder air and a better chance of precip over more of the CWA. A wind shift to the northwest with a cold front looks to occur in the 01-04z time frame with a chance that it may not occur until 05-06z.
734 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure centered over the local area will shift to New England today. The high will continue to influence the area into Saturday.
910 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure centered over the local area will shift to New England today. The high will continue to influence the area into Saturday.
624 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Scattered precipitation will continue through at least mid-day, when rain should begin clearing out as an upper ridge builds up from the southeast. Weak low pressure was over northern Louisiana, with a weak surface boundary extending into Arkansas. At the same time, an upper trough was moving over the region. As upper ridging builds back into the region later today, precipitation should clear out during the afternoon. Winds will come back around to the south, with warmer temperatures noted tonight and Saturday.
742 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather today and Saturday.
1054 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 latest runs continue to focus widespread precip across the mid- state into the evening ahead of approaching upper upper low.
Breezy and warmer will be the main highlights. A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. Initially column will be mild with thermal ridge axis over the fa.
Zonal to southwest flow aloft will lead to warmer temperatures today, while an increase in moisture will bring the potential for fog and drizzle heading into tonight. The low clouds mix out and shift east of our area for the day time hours and southerly winds will be on the increase as the surface gradient tightens. The low amplitude character of the flow will result in fast- moving systems with little or no time to entrain any decent moisture. As this low tracks across the Dakota's.
However, moisture will remain in the lowest 5,000 ft of the atmosphere through Saturday morning. We will need to take a closer look at the low cloud and fog potential overnight for the afternoon package.
Along and ahead of the trough axis an area of showers and thunderstorms is resulting in light to moderate rainfall. this morning, warming into the low to middle 70s across most of the region. A Ridge will build Over the Southern Plains.
1043 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather today and Saturday.
A lingering light shower could persist into the morning hours on Saturday as the upper level low is a little slow to move out of the region, but by Saturday afternoon, all of the mid-state should be rain-free.
944 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build toward the region today. The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. Initially column will be mild with thermal ridge axis over the fa.
(From prev disc) High pressure ridge over the eastern U.
warmer air aloft. and increasing southerly flow at the surface should keep the region dry and warmer through the end of the period. The workweek will get off to a warm and dry start as 500 mb ridging over the Southeast noses into Kentucky. During the middle part of the week, an amplifying 500 mb trough will progress eastward across the Plains toward the middle Mississippi Valley.
1222 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build toward the region today. The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
1055 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Canadian high pressure will extend across central NC through the weekend. 12Z upper air analysis depicts low level cold air advection in progress across central NC, a result of a passage of a surface cold front earlier this morning. 850mb temps upstream are 5-10 degrees C cooler.
913 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will settle along the Atlantic coast.
Winds in the low levels are from the southeast and mainly from the west-southwest in the middle and upper levels. /issued 415 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016/ The upper trough over west Texas will move toward the east coast and slow as upper ridging builds over the east coast.
Latest iterations of the high res HRRR indicates RH values around 16-18% in the far southwest and in the low 20s% just east of the Missouri River in the south central.
although there are a few pockets warmer and cooler than forecast right now.
604 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 High pressure centered just to our east this morning will continue to drift slowly away from central Illinois today. As the high shifts well off to our east today, southerly flow will bring warmer air back into the area this afternoon with highs expected to push back to between 65 and 70 degrees. A band of lower clouds currently across Kansas into western Missouri will stream northward and remain west of our area today, but should gradually shift east into central Illinois overnight which will result in much warmer readings overnight as the mercury settles into the low to mid 50s accompanied by a gentle southerly breeze.
1159 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure centered over the local area will shift to New England today. The high will continue to influence the area into Saturday.
The trof axis will exit the area by the afternoon with any remaining precipitation shifting east. Subsidence in the wake of the trof should allow for some clearing during the afternoon. The big story for the weekend will be the return of summer-like heat as south winds increase and mid-level heights rise as ridging builds through the southern Plains.
Very warm air surged into our southern zones overnight as a warm front moved north. A cold front then moved across westernmost Idaho around sunrise and temps dropped rapidly while winds shifted to the northwest 25 to 35 mph with local blowing dust.
A LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGING OVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEST, BUT LITTLE JET STREAK OVER THE AREA IN THE RIDGE MAY ALSO BE AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. /Issued 355 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ A strong upper trough, which will be the nations next big weather- maker, can be seen in WV imagery near the CA/OR state line.
146 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Low pressure near detroit will slowly move off to the northeast through monday.
(Issued 956 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016) After a pleasant start to the morning across the Tennessee Valley with temps in the lower/middle 50s, temperatures currently range in the middle/upper 60s across much of the area. In NW AL, temps are in the lower 60s due to a bit more radiational cooling that occurred there overnight with mostly/clear skies. The upper low over the Great Lakes region remains, with W/SW flow in place across much of the MS River Valley and points East. High pressure at the sfc will keep generally light northerly winds in place for N AL/Srn Middle TN.
545 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low pressure will maintain shower chances this evening. High pressure will then build overhead through the middle of the week. Closed low centered near Lake Erie will continue to shift east through Monday with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm into early evening. Only isolated showers possible north of I-80 Monday closer to exiting upper trough, otherwise dry with not as much cloud cover Monday afternoon.
247 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low pressure will maintain shower chances today. High pressure will then build overhead through the middle of the week. Closed low centered near Lake Erie will continue to shift east through Monday with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm into early evening. Only isolated showers possible north of I-80 Monday closer to exiting upper trough, otherwise dry with not as much cloud cover Monday afternoon.
Return flow on backside of the high will bring more clouds to eastern Wisconsin with partly to mostly sunny skies to the north and west of the Fox Valley.
355 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Upper ridging is in control of North Texas weather this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough moving into the western U.
The center of the large upper closed low pressure system over the lower Great lakes region will shift eastward over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, an upper level trough extending from the low to the northwest Gulf of Mexico will move east over the region by late Monday afternoon.
Satellite and radar loops show a bit of lingering mid clouds and virga over the MN counties, but otherwise clearing out as the upper ridge builds over the region. The ridge will begin to break down and move to the east tonight, allowing some stronger southwesterly flow to set up. With thermal ridging continuing over the Northern Plains and southeasterly winds keeping us mixed tonight, lows should be near or a few degrees warmer than last night.
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed a mid-level trough moving onto the West Coast, downstream ridging from the central Plains into western Ontario and a closed low over the lower Great Lakes. The aforementioned mid-level trough will progress through the Interior West tonight before emerging into the northern High Plains on Monday. The surface cyclone attendant to this system will deepen over the northern High Plains during that time frame while a trailing Pacific front moves into the central High Plains. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be warmer than today, though increasing high-level cloudiness may limit our maximum heating potential.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered west of the Baja Peninsula will maintain a mid-level flow from the northwest to west over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period.
Expect this lower layer of clouds to increase for Monday late morning into the afternoon. The strong upper level low that remained nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley for the last couple days is beginning to drift northward, and will move over the Great Lakes region today. To the southwest of this feature, an upper trough axis will begin to develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley region by tomorrow afternoon. To the east of the upper trough, moisture will begin to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours, although the mid-levels still appear too dry to support any showers or storms over the majority of our area. 5" during the afternoon, and a weak surface front/trough over the central FL Peninsula will drift northward at this time.
1243 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, as high pressure at the sfc remains in control of our weather pattern. /issued 1021 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ Upper-trough that brought clouds to the region earlier today is now exiting the region to the east allowing for upper-level ridging to rebuild.
328 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Large closed low in the mid levels continues over the Great Lakes region with ridging over the nation's mid-section. Additionally, another deep trough over the Pacific is crashing into the ridge, which will lead to the pattern's shift toward the east. In the short term, the main change will be for temperatures to be slightly warmer with additional moisture moving into the region, with winds increasing from the south. Isentropic lift will develop late in the day Monday, with some storm confined main along the trough, which is expected to be located out across the High Plains.
350 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Low pressure will move across New York tonight and Monday bringing cloudy skies and a chance of light rain showers and even a slight chance of thunder to northern New York tonight.
309 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 High impact weather potential: None Upper low continues to spin near MI today with large ridge across the Plains and upper Midwest. low pressure moving relatively quickly to the east over Lake Huron. especially in the lower levels. Strong high pressure moving across Ontario and Quebec keeps a moist easterly low level flow over the region through Monday. cooler in the UP where there should be some breaks. We will be saying good riddance to the pesky upper level low that has plagued our weather for the last several days, to be replaced with upper level ridging building directly overhead to start the new work week.
The upper low is now inland with scattered showers mainly concentrated in northern Cal and southwest Oregon as it pinwheels around the upper low. Weak ridging builds into the area tonight as the upper low exits the region and we should catch a relative break in the weather with showers generally on the decrease. Warm frontal precipitation will be quick to move in Monday morning, reach the coast first early in the morning, then spreading inland during the day.
Left out mention for now, and kept the cloud cover around with an upper trough in place in the wake of the closed low, which is now over the eastern Great Lakes.
As the pesky upper Low pushes off and across the Upper Ohio river valley, it finally drags a trailing upper trof across the FA/Commonwealth Tonight. This broad upper ridging in the wake of the departed system, extends from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi valley and will continue to be the holding weather feature through the remainder of the short term forecast.
Much warmer temperatures with plenty of sunshine is expected by midweek as a large dome of high pressure develops. Still some very light radar returns showing up and some very light rain/drizzle occurring mainly over the higher terrain and in east upslope regions. have noted some slightly stronger winds of 15 knots over the lake this morning associated with better mixing over the warmer water.
/issued 902 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ Moisture has increased across the Nature Coast counties and points northward this morning compared to yesterday morning at this time as evident in 12Z Raob data and water vapor imagery as remnant frontal boundary which had been stalled across the central peninsula drifts northward with weak high pressure north of the region remaining in control.
105 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Hydro Low pressure that has been bringing rain to Michigan for the past week will will finally move away and showers will come to an end by Monday.
Little in the way of significant clouds is expected overnight so we should see some good radiational cooling near the ridge along with fog formation.
Increased cloud cover some more overnight as it looks like the cloud layer will likely persist until the trough comes through. Trough axis slated for Denver around sunrise. There is currently some shallow convection in the drier air behind the trough over Utah, so I will keep some cloud cover. However the lower levelS will be drying substantially. models show an upper level trough of low pressure covering much of the western United States. with a deep upper low over eastern Montana. with possibly a few pockets of stronger winds across the higher foothills.
/issued 135 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ Have a weak upper ridge over the area today with the next approaching trough located along the NW coast. As this trough swings inland it will flatten the ridge. SW flow aloft will increase as the trough approaches and bring a chance of rain to the area. Have few clouds under the ridge today except for over the mountains. Temperatures will slowly warm under the ridge with the return of highs in the 90s to some locations.
342 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Upper ridge axis over eastern NM was edging slowly eastward this afternoon and is forecast to exit east of the region by Monday afternoon ahead of a progressive longwave trough. Subsidence with this ridge is not much to speak of as confirmed by recent agitated cumulus and shower development near Tatum, NM. Otherwise, no changes necessary to the inherited min and max temps, but southerly winds were boosted to 15- 20 mph for Mon afternoon in advance of the pressure trough. Upper low should be situated over ERN MT by Monday evening with a subtle trough axis rotating about the parent system into NM.
Drier and cooler conditions will develop Monday, with continued gusty southwest winds.
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 232 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Surface and upper-ridge across the region allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies areawide with temperatures currently in the mid 80s.
249 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Issued at 245 CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis showed an upper low departing the Great Lakes region to the NE, with a building ridge across much of the Central CONUS. Another upper low was coming ashore in the PAC NW. At the sfc, high pressure remained in control of the region, with light northerly winds across the TN Valley. Morning lows will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, bottoming out in the lower to middle 50s (as opposed to the middle/upper 40s to lower 50s).
139 PM MST SUN OCT 2 2016 A low pressure system moving through the Great Basin today and tonight will bring a cold front through the Desert Southwest.
258 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will move slowly through New York Monday keeping clouds and a chance of showers in the area.
It has been a little bit warmer today than yesterday and this trend will continue through much of this week. The area remains under broad troughing and this will continue through Monday before heights begin to rise in response to a developing system to our west.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX/ Surface and upper-ridge across the region allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies areawide with temperatures currently in the mid 80s.
Light rain has begun to spread north across Lemhi County and southwestern Montana ahead of the main circulation from a Cut-off low pressure this afternoon.
moist conditions replaced by drier and much cooler conditions. Southerly flow in increasing aloft as our area is squeezed between an amplifying ridge over the central conus and the next storm system just now moving onto the left coast of Oregon. Expect mild temps with cloud cover and increasing surface winds with low pressure deepening to our west. The cold front appears to move into eastern Utah not long after sunrise and swing to the northern divide by early afternoon.
305 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will slowly lift northeastward into eastern Canada through Monday. A trough axis will cross the region this evening. Behind the trough, high pressure will then build southward into the region during the middle portion of the week. Tropical cyclone Matthew could be a factor in our weather by the end of the week. The high to the northeast is losing its influence, which has allow southerly winds to take hold and cloud cover to gradually break up. Ahead of this feature, a couple of showers have already developed in eastern West Virginia, aided by some combination of broad uplift ahead of the low and diurnal terrain circulations.
218 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will move slowly through New York Monday keeping clouds and a chance of showers in the area.
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered nearly overhead. Water vapor imagery shows lows located over the Great Lakes and Pacific NW while ridging lies in place between them over the cntl CONUS. Deepening cyclone over the Pacific NW will also nudge the mid/upper-level ridge ewd. Main effects of all this appears to be warmer mins and maybe a little higher humidity tomorrow.
Another warm Fall day is in store as southwest flow increases out ahead of a deepening low pressure system that will be sliding into the Great Basin tonight. Combination of cloud cover, showers and warm southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will keep min temps up tonight. The cold front is expected to reach far northeast Utah by Monday morning, with significantly cooler conditions pushing in behind the front. The models continue to trend the upstream cyclone northward on Monday with the center of the QG forcing lifting out of northern Nevada into Montana during the daylight hours. The cold front associated with the system will be forced through eastern utah near the noon time hour and across western colorado to the divide by late afternoon. Expect cooler conditions Monday depending on the arrival of the cold front.
135 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Have a weak upper ridge over the area today with the next approaching trough located along the NW coast. As this trough swings inland it will flatten the ridge. SW flow aloft will increase as the trough approaches and bring a chance of rain to the area. Have few clouds under the ridge today except for over the mountains. Temperatures will slowly warm under the ridge with the return of highs in the 90s to some locations.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows the center of the upper low now onshore near Eureka and this is rather far to the north.
337 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Closed upper low over the Great Lakes will drift eastward through tonight. This will leave GA in a weak upper trough but heights should gradually rise through Monday. High pressure building down the east coast on Monday should turn our winds to the northeast. troughing will persist along east slopes of Rockies. with weak ridging also in place aloft.
355 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 A strong upper trough, which will be the nations next big weather- maker, can be seen in WV imagery near the CA/OR state line.
Upper low across the Great Lakes region this afternoon will continue to move eastward and weaken as a trough axis across the Mississippi Valley approaches the southeast tonight. At the surface, the area will remain between high pressure to the north and a nearly stationary front to the south across central Florida.
In the meantime, a weak trof is sliding south through area on backside of system as of 19z Sunday.
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Aviation Low pressure that has been bringing rain to Michigan for the past week will will finally move away and showers will come to an end by Monday.
Once we lose the daytime heating by sunset, we should lose the low level instability. This front will also bring in much warmer air aloft into the area. The upper level trough that has been bringing us rain will exit the region this evening giving northwest California a break from the rain.
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 An upper level low drifts off to the northeast today. High pressure moves in tonight and stays through mid week. will go on the lower side of MOS guidance for lows tonight in the northwestern counties were skies should clear, but will go with the warmer NAM MOS in areas where clouds should remain late in the night. High pressure then builds in and provides dry weather for Monday. High pressure will build in and provide dry weather for Monday.
147 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 As the pesky upper Low pushes off and across the Upper Ohio river valley, it finally drags a trailing upper trof across the FA/Commonwealth Tonight. This broad upper ridging in the wake of the departed system, extends from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi valley and will continue to be the holding weather feature through the remainder of the short term forecast.