Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
85h temps and downslope wind mostly supports the high temp forecast of M70-U70s SE NM to mostly 75-85 remainder of the area. Noticeably warmer Sat, especially across the w, and expanding east Sun/Mon. Said strong mid level winds will intersect the fire effective low level thermal ridge just off the Caprock at the surface and on the high plains at 85h. Meanwhile the lowest surface dewpoints will push hard into the windward side of the 85h thermal ridge around 21Z today. Also the fire weather as indicated the RFTI will fall into the high end critical (6-7)to extreme(8) range.
1008 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The temperature guidance was consistent with highs mainly in the lower 80s and just below records for the date. The main issues Wednesday will be windy conditions ahead of a cold front and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
This dry air will scour out the shallow moisture and clear out the low clouds. The better chances of thunderstorms for eastern Kansas/western Missouri should be this evening when the cold front finally encounters the moisture axis.
650 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes today and Wednesday will bring a variety of weather.
359 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will start to build in today.
A trough moving over the region this morning will cause the areas with light snow to break up and become more showery. Behind the trough stability will increase causing showers to taper off a bit later this morning.
350 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Cold front at 3 am was located along the US50 corridor and then extended northward towards COS. Cold front will continue to move south but is expected to stall from roughly Springfield to Walsenburg later today. As for precip, heaviest precip will occur this morning over the higher terrain, with precip gradually decreasing this afternoon. By later this morning into the afternoon, as cooler moister air advects onto the plains, the chance of showers will increase, especially across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Mid lvl trough axis will be along the I-25 corridor.
Expect the current band of showers to continue lifting northeast early this morning with high res models generally indicating another round of showers later this morning, especially across the southeast half of the area with a push of warm advection ahead of the warm front. That should help limit freezing drizzle/rain potential and instead give mainly a rain to snow scenario, with only a brief window of mixed precip potential. However, if forcing ends up weaker, could not rule out some potential for freezing drizzle/rain. There is variability regarding QPF over the area tonight/Wed with the GEM/GFS on the lower side compared with the ECMWF/NAM.
1030 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Latest RAP analysis shows an H100-H70 ridge axis blanketing central FL, generating a brisk SE flow over the CWA. Aloft, and H85-H30 anticyclone centered just north of the Yucatan Channel generating a deep W/NW flow resulted in strong mid/upr lvl evacuation abv the H50 lyr. Southeast flow will continue thru the H100-H70 lyr as the ridge axis overhead remains anchored in place. Ridge axis draped over the I-4 Corridor will maintain a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc. anticipate little change this aftn as the ridge axis remains anchored acrs the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 61 74 41 / 70 50 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 60 74 39 / 80 40 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 64 59 75 39 / 80 40 90 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 54 73 38 / 80 40 90 60 NC.
Continued Strong WAA ahead of an approaching cold front today will help highs rise into the 70s for all but NW Missouri where the cold front will move through by early afternoon. The cold front will continue to slowly sink into the CWA this evening as a upper level trough provides the forcing and we see enhanced convergence along the cold front. Showers should shift east of the area by Wednesday providing a much cooler day however temperatures will still be slightly above normal with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
430 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Cold front will continue through the forecast area overnight and should clear it by 12z. Either way, surface temperatures will be above freezing and ground temperatures even warmer, so snow will likely be melting on contact.
/issued 411 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ A broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast U. Although most of the deep layer moisture plume has been moved away by the ridge, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico has aided in the development of isolated convection associated with the sea breeze. Conditions on Wednesday will likely be similar, expect the center of the ridge should be in Mississippi, which will likely limit convective development even more.
Main forecast challenge is thunderstorm potential along the sfc cold front late this afternoon into the early evening. The core of the low level jet has shifted into NW MN, with a few elevated echoes around or NE of KGFK. The latest high resolution models show some shower and tstm development along the cold front by 5 to 6 pm, from south of KGFK to around Valley City. Other than the storms, south winds ahead of the cold front will stay gusty into the evening, and behind the front northwest winds will be the same way over the Devils Lake region.
The cold front is currently pushing southeast across Lincoln county and will largely be east of the county warning area by mid-evening. The coolest readings are forecast up across our northwestern zones with highs in the lower 70s anticipated, but lower 80s are still possible across our eastern zones.
803 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 As high pressure works off to the east tonight into tomorrow, low level moisture will be on the increase.
/issued 413 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ Much less activity today as the ridge aloft has help to keep precipitation in check.
725 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic coast will maintain control of weather conditions over the Great Lakes tonight. The advancing moisture will behave like a warm front only without much restriction below VFR outside of heavier showers or possibly a thunderstorm during afternoon into early Wednesday evening. Arrival of the ridge axis overnight will open up area skies to cirrus and mid cloud infiltrating from the west. Theta-e ridge fostering tomorrow's convective chances will bring a rise in dewpoints as surface flow veers southwesterly.
Am expecting a quiet night with possibly some very light patchy fog from ALI to VCT due to the dry airmass aloft combined with sfc dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 70s overnight. Subtropical ridge axis has been building across the region today.
756 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Quiet, late summer weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure provides fair and dry conditions to the region.
Farther west, a cold front is moving east over the central Dakotas, but is mostly inactive. Refined timing of precip chances a little, but did not make many changes in regards to probabilities, since concerns about coverage remain, given the low instability progged for tonight. With increasing clouds and higher dewpoints expected, low temps will be warmer into the middle 60s. However, a cold front will be arriving during the the afternoon, so will not be able to rule out additional showers entirely, but only thinking isolated shower activity at best.
The combination of warming mid levels and subsidence as mid level ridging briefly builds in later this evening should limit longevity of storms. Through late Wednesday the southeastern upper high will retrograde to near the Mississippi River with building heights across the eastern part of the state.
The low level flow continues to be directed to the northeast over the southeast portion of the area overnight as the front moves into eastern MN by 12z Wed.
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ Deep ridging throughout the U. Across Southeast and East Texas, rich moisture remains beneath the mid-level ridge, and some diurnally driven showers and storms have developed this afternoon.
505 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Upper level analysis has deep closed low across southern Saskatchewan with dry west to southwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, strong CAA occurring at the moment as cold front pushes southeast and Canadian high pressure moves into Montana. Some 30s will be possible in the higher Black Hills. Canadian upper low will slowly push east into Manitoba as upper flow remains westerly across the area, keeping a majority of the area mild and dry.
Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southeastern states with a drier and subsident airmass over South Central Texas. Could see a streamer shower or thunderstorm along the highway 77 corridor in the far eastern part of our area where moisture is slightly deeper on Wednesday with no chances elsewhere.
Looking ahead into mid-week, subtropical ridging will continue across the Northern Gulf and Southeast states with strong high pressure remaining over the Western Atlantic. Deep easterly flow in response to the aforementioned ridge retreating to the Mid-Atlantic states could bring in some drier air throughout the column by the end of the weekend.
For Wednesday, An upper level high over the Lower Mississippi Valley will be the main influence on our weather, with mainly warm and dry conditions. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) The subtropical ridge across the southeastern CONUS has begun to push westward into the area today, and will continue to push west over the next couple days.
A slight warming trend will continue through Wednesday as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Cooler conditions expected late in the week as an upper level trough moves across the region. Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer at this hour than 24 hours ago as high pressure continues to build off the coast. Temperatures are anticipated to warm a few degrees Wednesday as the high off the coast continues to build and shifts a bit to the east and closer to coast. Further compression of the marine layer is forecast Wednesday as the high shifts toward the coast.
As high pressure builds to our north a northeasterly flow will continue reaching caution conditions in the offshore waters through Wednesday night.
Precip chances will persist through the overnight hours with primary hazards switching from severe to hydro during the late evening hours as the low-level jet ramps up.
521 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into Northwestern New Mexico. The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and move today's low pressure system northeast across Colorado overnight.
However, an area of stratus across southern Saskatchewan is churning counterclockwise around low pressure in south central Saskatchewan. A cooler Wednesday highlights the short term forecast. Western and central North Dakota will remain in the dry slot of the low across southeast Saskatchewan through the evening and much of the overnight.
Cloud cover is filling in over northwest sections of the forecast area behind the front indicating the arrival of cooler and moister airmass from Canada. with a bit cooler in the western valleys/mountains.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Modest cooling is then expected late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak upper level trough develops over California. Evening water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper ridge building offshore along 130W and a longwave trough over the northern Rockies. In the short-term the ridge will be the dominant weather feature for our area, giving us slightly warmer temperatures going into Wednesday.
1044 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 At 9:15 PM the upper level trough was spinning over NW New Mexico. Lightning activity has diminished with the loss of heating, and a few lingering showers remain over the higher terrain west and southwest of the urban corridor. The upper level trough will make its way east through the state through Wednesday. A cold frontal boundary that pushed in from the NW earlier today brought increasing stable conditions onto the plains along with gusty winds. Models show persistent QG lift and increasing specific humidity and PW values over the SW portions of the state reaching into the higher elevations of the CWA and Park county. For Wednesday temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching into the mid 70s. Scattered showers will be continuing over the high terrain Wednesday evening.
/issued 411 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ A broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast U. Although most of the deep layer moisture plume has been moved away by the ridge, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico has aided in the development of isolated convection associated with the sea breeze. Conditions on Wednesday will likely be similar, excpet the center of the ridge should be in Mississippi, which will likely limit convective development even more.
At other times during the forecast period, look for VFR conditions to prevail as high pressure remains in control of our Mid-State weather.
Thinking this cold pool should serve to stabilize the area from further severe threat the remainder of this afternoon/evening, but will maintain some higher pops across parts of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa into the evening as the low level jet ahead of approaching cold front could result in some regeneration around the edge of the cold pool. This cold front, now located from just west of Aberdeen to near Chamberlain to just east of Valentine Nebraska per well-defined fine lines on regional radars, will push across the forecast area through the overnight hours, bringing drier and more benign weather to the region for Wednesday. Lows tonight may ultimately depend on where the cold front is located by 12Z, but should generally range from upper 50s west to mid-upper 60s southeast.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front is currently located along Highway 83. By then, an upper level trough should cool off 700 mb temps enough for convection to develop.
Moving forward, upper level high will expand and build across the southeastern U.
Subtropical ridge axis has been building across the region today.
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over southern Saskatchewan Canada and upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest. 12z NAM is slower in movement of surface cold front. 12z NAM develops scattered convection across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin along surface cold front with GFS/ECMWF further south and out of forecast area. 12z GFS/ECMWF solution of cold front.
Surface wise, an expansive area of high pressure over the eastern United States and into the Sunshine State. A light to gentle mostly east wind will keep low temperatures predominately in the lower 80s under mainly partly cloudy skies.
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region through mid week. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week.
But with an upper high centered along the Gulf and a fairly dry atmosphere, dont expect this pcpn to last to long after sunset. Overall the wx pattern through the weekend will be dominated by a large upper high over the region. Pcpn chances will be on the low side and mainly for the aftn and evening hours. Temps will be a little above normal with aftn highs in the low/mid 90s and mrng lows in arnd 70.
Expect decreasing storm activity tonight and into Wednesday as an upper low moves away from the area.
1044 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Quiet, late summer weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure provides fair and dry conditions to the region.
Also, guidance is not as bullish on the low stratus and fog potential early Wednesday morning, possibly due to the ongoing shower activity and mostly cloudy skies that are expected area-wide overnight. The slow-moving upper trough will edge closer to northwest Texas on Wednesday. We expect more sun off the Caprock and temps to warm into the low 90s across the Rolling Plains.
1223 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 The next low pressure system will continue to organize over the Midwest for the remainder of the night. The advancing moisture will behave like a warm front only without much restriction below VFR outside of heavier showers or possibly a thunderstorm during afternoon into early Wednesday evening. Arrival of the ridge axis overnight will open up area skies to cirrus and mid cloud infiltrating from the west. Theta-e ridge fostering tomorrow's convective chances will bring a rise in dewpoints as surface flow veers southwesterly.
Dew points have increased into the lower 70s across northeast Kansas this afternoon. The upper low over southern Canada will gradually move east tonight and Wednesday. This will nudge the cold front southward through the day on Wednesday into north central and northeast Kansas. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s in east central.
Expect decreasing storm activity this evening and into Wednesday as an upper low moves away from the area.
Satellite imagery places the low center in the middle of southern Saskatchewan this evening. Templer Previous Discussion - A vertically stacked upper low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan, thus Northeast montana remains in a mainly dry northwest flow aloft. Wednesday night high pressure will quickly build in, making for quickly decreasing winds and shower activity wednesday evening.
Southeastern states upper ridge expands some beginning tomorrow.
while a cold front slowly drifted southeast through Western Kansas and Central Nebraska. These conditions should help to keep temps warmer across the northern part of the CWA. though lows in the low to mid 70s look to be common for most locations over the CWA.
Conditions will remain quiet overnight with upper level ridging in place. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 88 72 91 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 88 72 91 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 85 68 87 / 10 20 10 10.
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure is just east of Arkansas.
1130 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Zonal upper flow remains across the northern tier of state after the upper trough moving east of the Rockies moves out across across the norther Plains tonight. The upper low getting pulled into the flow over the southern plains from the Gulf Coast region should remain far enough east of the region to not affect the forecast area directly. With the westerlies aloft, a surface lee trough remains in place in some from from the northern High Plains into the central High Plains region through Tuesday night.
Weak upper level trough approaching the Pacific northwest this evening. The trough moves through on Monday with continued partly cloudy skies.
338 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A large area of dry high pressure will cover much of the eastern United States tonight through Tuesday.
443 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
Temperatures today returned to near to above normal across the area, topping out in the low 80s. Monday: Weak ridging will continue through early parts of the week, allowing southerly winds of 10 - 20 mph and temperatures in the low to mid 80s for Monday.
Some weak turning of the winds during the day Tuesday indicates a weak wave moving through the region and for all the reasons above, models are highlighting some showers and a few storms over the higher terrain of eastern Utah and the Western Slope.
346 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure over New England will ridge westward across the region through the day.
OUt in the I-65 corridor and points west, temperatures were in the low mid 70s. Temperatures will fall back into the lower 60s this evening and by mid-late evening, we'll be back in the 50s. Current thinking is that the cool spots will be in the Bluegrass once again with lows in the lower 40s. High pressure and ridging aloft will result in continued fair weather through mid week as morning temps in the upper 40s to low 50s rise into the mid to upper 70s.
441 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will allow dry weather with a gradual warming temperature this week. High pressure covering the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will bring fair weather today.
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will allow dry weather with a gradual warming temperature this week. High pressure covering the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will bring fair weather today.
Near what was left of yesterday's cold front across southern Utah, where some low-level convergence was still in place, some weak convection developed late this afternoon. This convection will quickly diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as the low-level convergence weakens. Overnight mins are expected to trend similar to or slightly warmer than last night for most areas. The flow will turn more southwesterly tomorrow and the airmass will trend more significantly warmer. This pattern will not last as high pressure will build back in from the west for the middle part of the week. Thereafter, deterministic global models continue to suggest a trough will graze northern Utah before amplifying across the Rockies and into the Great Plains for the end of the week.
This will combine with a weak disturbance being pulled from northern Baja to western Arizona in the base of broad trough developing along the West Coast.
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will be near the area for the foreseeable future. High pressure will continue to dominate the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic. With a strong inversion setting up and increasing flow above the inversion, this will yield increasingly southeasterly flow over the warmer lakes overnight as we are already seeing near Dunkirk. Additionally, based upon how low the inversion looks to set up, some of the higher spots along the Chautauqua Ridge will likely remain a bit breezier overnight. Otherwise, the high overhead will yield another clear and cool night for most locations.
112 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will remain in place through the middle of the week with dry conditions and gradual warming. Upper level ridging with high pressure shifting east allows our area to continue to stay dry through Monday. Expect slowly warming temperatures across the atmospheric column between today and tomorrow allowing for warmer nighttime lows (low 40s) tonight and warmer daytime highs (low to mid 70s) Monday.
Winds will shift to northwest across western Nebraska as the trough passes. Temperatures will be nearly the same or a few degrees warmer Monday.
For tomorrow, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible in the high country. A little deeper moisture is being drawn northward into northern Arizona this afternoon resulting in a nice cumulus field developing across the higher terrain. For Monday and Tuesday, moisture should become deep enough to warrant a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain of northern Arizona each afternoon. Furthermore, a weak upper level trough axis rotating into western Arizona should provide some upper support to aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms each afternoon.
At the surface, lee troughing remains in place with Tropical Storm Beta southeast of the TX Coast. As this occurs, upper ridging is expected to build from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains.