Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
337 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017 A cold front is continuing to drop down into western Montana this morning, bringing gusty north and east winds to the area. However, cooler surface temperatures and an abundance of thick smoke from Canadian and Washington wildfires (as well as our own) will act to inhibit instability and any widespread storm activity.
Mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep low temperatures steady in the low to mid 70s across the region. The fairly amplified upper trough currently over much of the central and eastern CONUS will de-amplify this weekend, putting an end to the synoptic scale ascent over our region by Saturday.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows an elongated mid level trough axis moving into AL and southern MS. Very dry air noted in the wake of this trough moving into northern and central MS/AL. Given modest forcing ahead of this trough combined with a very moist and unstable airmass along the coast, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to once again develop across the coastal counties out into the Gulf of Mexico this morning.
A broad mid/upper-level trough extends across the eastern half of the country with ridging suppressed over south Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis remains stretched across the central part of the peninsula, with a frontal boundary well north of the area. For today and Sunday, the mid/upper-level trough will continue to lift out to the northeast, with ridging holding in place across the western Atlantic, stretching over the state.
123 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 A cold front is currently crossing the area, and behind it, winds will shift to NW and cigs may become broken at MVFR levels at times.
122 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some strong, ahead of a cold front. Cooler and less humid Saturday.
This will be fighting against increased subsidence from mid-level short wave ridging building across southern WI today. While thermal trof and better cyclonic flow shifts off to the east, can not rule out an isolated shower or storm developing this afternoon with MUCape increasing to 500-1K joules. Partly to mostly sunny skies for the bulk of the day should help temperatures warm into the upper 70s most areas but afternoon lake breeze will cause lakeshore areas to fall a few degrees into the low to mid 70s.
Moisture transport is still very strong ahead of the approaching warm front. This leaves the high temperatures in question for today. Some areas may be several degrees cooler or warmer depending on the density of the cloud cover today. Once the cold front come through the region during the morning hours Sunday, the rain threat will diminish and cooler temperatures will return the region. The cold front will stall in Oklahoma which will keep northerly flow over the region.
Temperatures remain mild, but readings are a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago, especially close to the Delta where a more robust Delta Breeze has finally returned (Fort Ord profiler now showing the marine layer around 1500 feet deep).
Surface obs show a strong dewpoint gradient from east to west across the area, identifying the location of a cold front.
A high pressure ridge will bring fair and seasonably cool weather Saturday.
642 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 A cold front passes today.
/Tonight through Saturday/ High pressure across the area tonight to slowly shift east/southeast with winds diminishing this evening. The cooler air still in place should allow for temps to still drop into the lower 50s to around 50 in spots across the east closer to the high.
133 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Showers east of Interstate 79 will end as a cold front exits. Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday under building high pressure. Any remaining showers should end overnight as a cold front exits. Dry weather is expected overnight thereafter as the temperature and dewpoint drops under an approaching upper trough.
Upper level low pressure trough in Canada late this afternoon will continue to make its way southeast into our region tonight and Saturday. With the cloud cover and cooler air, 70s for highs on Saturday look good.
A cold front continues to push through the southern Tennessee Valley this evening, stretching roughly from Crossville, TN back southwest through Florence, AL. The dry conditions will continue through Saturday, as the cold front stall south of the area. The aforementioned cold front will begin to lift northward as a warm front late Saturday night. There may be some isolated thunderstorms Saturday night as the warm front moves through the area, however given the relatively dry air, will continue a dry forecast. Temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday night/Sunday morning, with lows forecast in the lower to mid 60s. The TN Valley will be in between an upper- level ridge stretched from the Atlantic to the western Gulf and a trough across the Great Lakes.
238 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 The driest day of the forecast will be today, and thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday, cooler temps along with lower dewpoints will hang around today as well.
A zonal flow aloft brings an upper level trough from the Big Bend today to over Central Texas on Sunday.
230 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Cooler and less humid today under high pressure.
Expect with the upper trough over the region that chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm, along with cooler than average temperatures, will prevail into Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail most of the time through the week with an upper ridge on the Pacific Coast and an upper trough/low to the east.
High temps today are expected to be in the 80s to lower 90s acrs eastern areas, and in the 70s in the high valleys.
Low clouds, patchy fog and cooler conditions have returned to the coast today with warmer inland temperatures expected this afternoon.
525 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Mainly dry weather is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
With this easterly flow pattern, maximum temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s, a few degrees cooler than seasonal norms. Through mid week to late week: Models continue to strengthen a high pressure cell over the eastern CONUS and mid Atlantic regions, tightening surface pressure gradients, and maintaining moderate to strong easterly flow over South Florida.
704 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Northwest flow is typically not a big snow producer for our region as the flow coming off the higher terrain tends to keep the lower levels drier. Light snow will quickly diminish Tuesday morning as the upper level low pushes northeast through the rest of the day. The early week upper trof over the northern rockies split some energy off over California/Nevada that becomes a separate and distinct upper low.
1107 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Marine Above normal temperatures return for Today and Tuesday as south flow pumps warmer air into the region.
809 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure draped across New York State will slowly drift east to the Atlantic coastline through Tuesday.
1015 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the week. Seeing some strato-cu linger along the southern Blue Ridge that should fade in the next hour or two given mixing of very dry air aloft per morning raobs.
1008 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Portions of the Tygart and Greenbrier Valleys have once again dipped to freezing or just below at this early morning hour. It will be a few degrees warmer today, especially in favored southeast flow downsloping areas. Upper level ridge builds overhead tonight. It should be a few degrees warmer tonight, though still chilly across the mountain valleys.
849 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A trough of low pressure over the Western U. Warming will occur during the second half of the week as high pressure builds in, helping temperatures return to 5-10 degrees above average by the weekend.
850 AM MST Mon Oct 2 2017 A brief cooling trend will continue today as a low pressure system settles across the intermountain West. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across far eastern Arizona during the midweek period as southwesterly flow develops between a building area of high pressure and a persistent low pressure system across the western states.
856 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. No changes needed for the morning update with high pressure firmly in place. Strong upper level ridging will promote another sunny day with warming temperatures. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
701 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cool Canadian high pressure gradually ridges south into the local area through midweek. Aloft, the setup is starting to trend towards a blocking pattern with an amplifying ridge from the central Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes. Mid/upper level ridge axis continues to build along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians.
840 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Some drier air will be moving into the northern half of the area today as high pressure builds into the state. A moderate and gusty east flow will be in place today as high pressure builds down the state tightening the pressure gradient across the area. Easterly flow will remain across the coastal waters through much of the week as strong high pressure builds into the area today.
The one minor change was to lower temperatures slightly near the freezing line to get a little more mixed precipitation into theses areas earlier where some call outs are already starting to see snow mixed in. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Stacked low pressure system located over the northeast corner of the state this morning, with a trof stretching southwest to another upper low over Idaho. Expect some separation of the upper lows today, changing the orientation and bringing precipitation and cold air through central Montana and into the western portion of the cwa. Exception will be in the higher terrain (above 4k ft) of the Little Rockies which should start to see snow along with accumulations by the afternoon. Proximity of the low will also keep winds well mixed. High pressure moves into eastern Montana behind the departing low Tuesday night.
537 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Overall the inherited forecast is in good shape for today's snow event across the higher elevations of SE WY. Although with temps hovering around freezing during the snowfall, melting will offset some of this accumulation.
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 The line of thunderstorms that developed along the cold front has diminished early this morning and the front has stalled out over south central Nebraska/north central Kansas.
1234 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. The mid level anticyclone will strengthen further, with its axis shifting slowly to the NW.
With daytime mixing and a westward bulge of the high, we should se decreasing clouds in that area in the late afternoon/evening.
912 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
A large upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will maintain cooler than normal temperatures today along with isolated showers. The upper level trough will gradually move south tonight through Tuesday for more northerly flow and drier weather.
/Issued 427 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday) Overall we are looking at a halfway decent day across South Texas with mid-level ridging in place overhead. A major slug of Gulf moisture comes surging in late tonight with PWATs topping out around 2" as mid-level ridging shifts westward. Strengthening onshore flow will allow more water build-up and we could approach 2 feet MSL during the high tide cycle late tonight/Tuesday morning.
Focus for the forecast remains on the timing of our cold frontal passage. The cold front is already knocking on our northern border thanks to convective outflows earlier on in the night. Tuesday we should see the cold front make another surge southward into the Panhandles and this will start our next round of area- wide rain chances.
The Florida Keys are positioned along the southern flank of an expanding and intensifying high pressure cell. A sprawling high pressure cell over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic will expand and intensify this afternoon through Tuesday.
924 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week. Cooler than normal temperatures are in the forecast for the next couple of days as the jet stream brings cooler Canadian air across the West. These forecast highs are several degrees cooler than normal.
The disturbance is embedded within a large upper trough which extends into eastern Oregon. Isolated valley and scattered mountain showers will develop this afternoon in association with the trough. Cold upper low currently in Montana will shift east today as a new upper trough forms in BC/Alberta and carves southwestward through Oregon tonight, forming a closed low in ne Calif/nw Nevada Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure in Montana will expand into Idaho from the northeast Tuesday, although probably not as much as shown by the GFS.
Focus for precipitation on Tuesday is very ill-defined as the nearest surface boundary will be a dryline anchored near the higher terrain of NM. As a result, PoPs for Tuesday were kept on the low side and tending to focus under the aforementioned moisture plume found lifting north through the day.
745 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge axis just to the west of our forecast area (FA) will build east some today. Upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
1208 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Hydro Above normal temperatures return for Today and Tuesday as south flow pumps warmer air into the region.
735 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
Small craft advisory conditions remain in place due to long fetch of onshore winds with strong high pressure north of the area.
Gusty north winds will gradually subside today with much cooler temperatures.
1237 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the week. Seeing some strato-cu linger along the southern Blue Ridge that should fade in the next hour or two given mixing of very dry air aloft per morning raobs.
532 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 First significant snowfall of the season across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado continues this morning as a stalled cold front and 120 kt jet remains anchored southwest to northeast across Utah and Colorado through Monday night. The cold front bringing all of this precipitation will finally tilt its axis and roll on out of here this evening.
Upper low continues to drop into the deep upper trough carving out over the Great Basin. Thunder possible once again this afternoon as cold core of upper low drops into Idaho.
Large scale flow pattern features troughiness across the western US with an upper low over Montana with ridging over the eastern third of the CONUS. Even through there is broad troughiness across the west, lower level thickness values remain elevated which will continue to result in well above normal temperatures today. Meanwhile, the mid/upper pattern will retrogrades with ridging aloft building westward as the week progresses.
736 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Aviation Above normal temperatures return for Today and Tuesday as south flow pumps warmer air into the region.
At the same time, an upper level ridge will strengthen across the OH/TN Valleys. The building ridge and increasing sunshine on Tuesday will allow temps to jump into the lower 80s for most areas.
We already had the highest pops there this afternoon, and I've added in a slight chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon, similar to what we observed yesterday. Winds will decouple over the lower elevations tonight, but gusty offshore winds will continue over the coastal ranges of far southwest oregon and western Siskiyou County.
1256 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will continue to provide dry and warm weather through Tuesday.
A cool upper trough will remain over the northern Great Basin through mid week. Cold trough with -26 degree 500 mb temperatures will provide unstable conditions across the northern third of the CWA today.
710 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the area this morning will stay in place through tonight.
The forecast for the near term remains the same for the residents of eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring dry and pleasant weather to the area for the foreseeable future. The mostly clear and calm conditions on tap for tonight will allow temperatures to fall to chilly readings ranging from the mid 40s in valleys to the lower 50s on ridges. They all depict strong ridging through the southeast portion of the nation stretching from eastern Texas northeast through Pennsylvania. This ridge will start to be impinged from the north and west by an increasingly active flow pattern through the northern tier of the country and Great Lakes region.
In the low-levels, a tight surface pressure gradient was present over northern CA, and was aiding in gusty sub-advisory northerly winds. Low-level winds will veer to easterly in the wake of the upper disturbance resulting in an increasing fire weather threat for area ridgetops (refer to the fire weather discussion below, as well as current watches/warnings for more information). Besides the gusty winds, interior valley temperatures have become chilly Monday morning, with the coldest values (near freezing) observed at Hayfork. Otherwise, NWRN CA will reside within a dry subsident large-scale regime through the extended range period as one trough exits east of the region and a second trough retrogrades west across the Pacific.
Fog product satellite imagery shows that some BKN025 ceilings have developed over the higher terrain of the Ozarks and Oauchitas this morning, while VFR decks around BKN050-060 have spread over central and southeastern parts of the state. Today Through Tuesday Night Upper level high pressure is anchored over the southeastern United States this morning, with large scaled troughing over the Pacific NW and northern Rockies. Weak energy will rotate around the southern periphery of the southeast ridge, northward into Arkansas today. The western trough will break down somewhat in terms of amplitude as two distinct upper lows develop out of the main trough. This will allow the southeastern ridge to develop back to the west towards Arkansas somewhat. Guidance shows upper ridging building overhead during the day Tuesday, with any substantial lift or jet influence located to the northwest of the CWA.
1042 AM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. The mid level anticyclone will strengthen further, with its axis shifting slowly to the NW.
Aloft a ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast States and Northeast Gulf reached North across into Eastern Canada while a large and broad trough of low pressure associated with a closed upper low over Central Canada and the North Central sections of the conus covered much of the Upper Mid West into Mexico and the West Coast. The strong Easterly flow associated around the back of the ridge of high pressure aloft and on the surface along a nearly stationary and weakening front near the Gulf Coast will provide increasing dew points/moisture for the Gulf Region along with unsettled weather for the Four State Region into near mid week.
* None Longwave amplification underway across the CONUS as significant jet energy carves out a deep trough over the western half of the US. Downstream ridge axis will be anchored immediately east of the area and with H5 heights hovering near 595dm over the Mid-Atlantic through midweek. Thus, the surface temperature response today, although several degrees warmer than yesterday, will still be rather damped as southeast flow lake-shadows eastern locations and a strong subsidence inversion limits boundary layer growth. Highs in the low to mid 70s for eastern areas and upper 70s in the Saginaw Valley and west of US 23 seems reasonable. Temps will further moderate into the low 80s on Tuesday as mid-level temps warm and wind shifts to southwesterly.
1034 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
1012 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cool Canadian high pressure gradually ridges south into the local area through midweek. Aloft, the setup is starting to trend towards a blocking pattern with an amplifying ridge from the central Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes. Mid/upper level ridge axis continues to build along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians.
1217 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Have bumped up highs today a few degrees as we continually overachieve the warmth with the building ridge overhead. Dewpoint temperatures have inched up from the last few days, giving us a higher floor to the lows than we've seen, but readings should still crater after sunset under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Stacked low pressure system located over the northeast corner of the state this morning, with a trof stretching southwest to another upper low over Idaho. Expect some separation of the upper lows today, changing the orientation and bringing precipitation and cold air through central Montana and into the western portion of the cwa. Exception will be in the higher terrain (above 4k ft) of the Little Rockies which should start to see snow along with accumulations by the afternoon. Proximity of the low will also keep winds well mixed. High pressure moves into eastern Montana behind the departing low Tuesday night.
Little change to the overall pattern through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure remains over the region with low-level offshore flow.
High resolution models are not predicting the same type of momentum transfer in terms of gusts for our area, but 30kts is possible, slightly higher in the highest ridges. Cold high pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday night.
The best chance for accumulating snow is north of the low track. South of this area over most of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio, have trended snow amounts down where very dry air entrainment, max upward velocity outside of the dendritic zone and warmer boundary level temperatures may greatly limit snowfall.
A cold front moving through Thursday will bring breezy and colder weather.
Otherwise, there were a few flurries in southeast ND and northeast SD in a moist cyclonic flow around the strong low pressure system near Lake Michigan.
548 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, a minor upper level low pressure system will move across the area late tonight and Thursday accompanied by an increase in mid and high level clouds.
Cold high pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday night.
No big impacts, but cooler weather than we have seen in a little while. High temps Thursday will range from the lower 30s near the Dakotas border to the mid 40s across our western lower elevations.
646 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Weak high pressure builds in tonight and tomorrow while a weak disturbance moves by to our south.
649 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Aviation Low pressure tracking near the southern Michigan border will bring heavy snow to parts of southern and central lower Michigan this evening before ending overnight.