Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
How quickly this cloud cover dissipates will dictate how quickly instability can build in the lower atmosphere.
The upper pattern through the rest of the short term features an upper high over the central/southern plains and ridging just to our west. though that ridge axis gradually progresses east with a slight weakening in the strength of the upper high. The period starts off with a ridge aloft centered over the Southern Plains.
1235 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry weather is expected under high pressure, until shower chances return Sunday with approaching low pressure. Scattered showers return late tonight and Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region.
320 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Tonight and Sunday: Tonight: Ridging is anticipated to build SE tonight, keeping NW flow aloft & dry thermo profiles around overnight. Lows will fall near climo in the low 70s in the S half of the area while cooler & below in the upper 60s to the N. Sunday: Near carbon copy of today is expected Sun as ridging & warm thermo help most areas warm near or above climo into the low-mid 90s.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ The mid-level ridge will continue to dominate our weather pattern this weekend, keeping the weather quiet, hot, and mostly rain- free.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging just far enough north to allow some moisture and drift east along the southern periphery into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon.
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The quiet weather continues as water vapor imagery shows us in weak northwest flow aloft with a prominent ridge over the central US. Lowered highs slightly for today based on some of the cloud cover, the weak cold front, and observations not trending as warm. Highs for tomorrow have come down slightly with anticipated cloud cover and the stalled out cold front across the area.
This will return scattered showers to the region Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. The upper low will then deepen and close off over the NE CONUS the remainder of the period. Model ensembles continue to indicate a persistent upper trough/low remaining across much of the Ern CONUS through mid week. Cooler than average temperatures early in the period should return to seasonable levels late in the week.
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A large upper ridge has set up over the central plains and will be the primary catalyst for dry and hot weather to continue through the beginning of the work week. With the slowly approaching cold front, winds will gradually veer out to southwesterly.
240 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure along with drier and slightly cooler air will settle over the region for the remainder of today through Sunday.
A favorable pattern for monsoon activity remains in place for southeast Arizona as the upper ridge is centered over the southern Great Plains. Forecast confidence is low in the track of this wave, as it will likely depend on the evolution of the western/central US upper ridge.
Temperatures have been impacted by combination of cloud cover/light precip in the NE and advancing warm front to the SW resulting in mid 60s far NE to mid-upr 70s SW. Upper level trough over New England will move little through much of the upcoming week, keeping us on the edge of a dry and seasonably cool airmass.
As we head into the work week, the ridge across the southwest U.
Light to moderate south winds will persist as a lee trough continues over Colorado and northern New Mexico.
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will prevail inland overnight as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
251 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees. High pressure was centered over southeast Missouri. This high will move east tonight keeping dry weather across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 60s. This will keep dry weather across the region and allow warmer air to move in as well. Temperatures will be near to above normal on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Additional moisture has pushed into the region, thanks our position on the edge of an upper level ridge along which weak disturbances can pass along. Those along Lake Superior will stay somewhat cooler as usual, with northeasterly winds or a lake breeze circulation expected most afternoons. MVFR conditions are seen across much of the region this afternoon with low pressure passing to the south.
Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado has deepened strengthening the gradient across much of southwest Kansas seeing gusts up to 20-30 mph through the peak heating of the afternoon hours with the strongest mixing.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northwest flow aloft continues, with northern Michigan remaining squarely centered between central Noam centered ridge axis and broad northeast Canada centered troughing. Details: While main area of showers will slide off to our south through the evening, sustained moisture advection through the low levels will continue. Perusal of hi-res guidance soundings confirm a moisture rich environment in the lowest several thousand feet of the column. Moisture depth is definitely deep enough to support some scattered light showers and areas of drizzle/mist overnight, especially for areas south of the big bridge. with ridging still out west we're left in no-man's land for upper level flow.
139 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry weather is expected under high pressure, until shower chances return Sunday with approaching low pressure. This will return scattered showers to the region Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. The upper low will then deepen and close off over the NE CONUS the remainder of the period. Model ensembles continue to indicate a persistent upper trough/low remaining across much of the Ern CONUS through mid week. Cooler than average temperatures early in the period should return to seasonable levels late in the week.
126 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected all weekend as high pressure will be present over the region. High pressure in control today with sunny skies across the region. Some minor updates were needed for the hourly temperatures as some areas were cooler than forecasted. High pressure will persist through this period with dry conditions expected through Sunday. Partly sunny skies are expected Sunday with cloud cover increasing late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as the flow becomes more westerly. A slow-moving trough over eastern North America will carve out a mid-level cutoff low over the northeastern U.
252 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Water Vapor imagery currently shows the upper high situated over the Southern Plains and is providing us with another warm and sunny day. Not much, if any, change is expected by tomorrow evening as the upper high, for the most part, stays in place across the region. The only noticable difference is slightly warmer lows tonight as slightly higher dewpoints drift northwestward.
In general across the area we have high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft streaming dry air into the Tennessee Valley.
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the upper ridge currently centered across the central High Plains with fairly dry mid level air expanding southward through west-central Texas. With the upper ridge still off to our north, near average temperatures will continue this afternoon and blended guidance continues to fare quite well in this setup. The ridge will pivot southward Sunday, centering across the TX Panhandle and nudging thickness up some. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be a degree or two warmer than today as a result, reaching the mid to upper 90s for most with 100s possible in the northeastern Permian Basin and along the Rio Grande.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) No significant changes to the short term with high pressure continuing its slow SSE movement into the Texas Panhandle. The thermal ridge remains offset to our north, so temperatures today and Sunday will remain near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 90s.
251 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front sags into central Illinois.
Of note, HREF probabilities for over 1inch of 6hr QPF suggests heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding in central Mohave County through the higher terrain of Clark County.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Another great weather day across the mid state with temps currently in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft and light and variable winds are keeping the area on the drier side today, but weak disturbances in the upper flow tonight along with some slightly stronger lobes of the trough over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday may bring some rain chances to the far north Sunday morning. Highs for the western half look to be in the low 90s and mid to upper 80s on the Plateau.
1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Current mesoanalysis very early this morning indicates a cold front continuing to drop southeast across the area. With weak cold air advection persisting into tonight, it will be a cooler night. Lower to mid 60s will be more common to the west as the low level flow becomes more southeasterly when high pressure over western MN drifts eastward.
Light to modeate south winds will persist as a lee trough continues over Colorado and northern New Mexico.
More sun tomorrow with highs a bit warmer than today, in the 80 to 85 range.
Lows will mostly be in the low 70s with a few places dipping down into the upper 60s by tomorrow morning.
Slightly warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s west to upper 80s east under mostly sunny skies.
214 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions through the remainder of the weekend.
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A long wave trough over the western North Atlantic bisects mean layer ridging centered over the Central US and the North Atlantic. Low level ridging extends west to near the northern Bahamas, with lingering ridging squirting west around the southern tip of Florida. A struggling cloud line over the Lower Keys failed to erupt as a southeasterly wind surge spread across the island chain a couple hours ago.
1056 AM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A ridge of high pressure remains firmly in place over the western CONUS. By the evening hours, slightly drier air will begin working its way into the northwestern corner of the state as the ridge is suppressed by stronger westerly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest.
113 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will keep us dry with lower humidity into early Sunday.
(Tonight) Fair-weather cumulus has developed across areas along and east of I-65 this afternoon as high pressure remains over the area. Td's in NW Alabama are in the low 60s while Td's in NE Alabama are in the upper 60s to near 70.
249 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Hot and dry weather will be the story for the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure remains centered over the plains. Dry surface conditions across the area will lead to surface dewpoints remaining in the lower to upper 50s, which will keep heat index values closer to the air temperature, with the highest heat index values of 100 to 105. So even with max temperatures around 100 it wont seem as oppressive with the lower dewpoints.
Tonight and through Sunday, we remain on the southeastern periphery of a large ridge aloft with a longwave trough still centered over the northeast CONUS gradually being pushed east out over the Atlantic. 5 inches along the highway 84 corridor. Looking at temperatures, expect highs to range generally in the low 90s across the area with upper 80s near the immediate coast.
638 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Another great weather day across the mid state with temps currently in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft and light and variable winds are keeping the area on the drier side today, but weak disturbances in the upper flow tonight along with some slightly stronger lobes of the trough over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday may bring some rain chances to the far north Sunday morning. Highs for the western half look to be in the low 90s and mid to upper 80s on the Plateau.
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging just far enough north to allow some moisture and drift east along the southern periphery into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon.
High pressure was centered over the Northern High Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure near La Crosse. This low continued to spread stratus across much of the Northland with drizzle being reported at times underneath this deck. Northwest flow will setup over the region for much of the week before an upper low disrupts the flow late week.
/Issued 307 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ North and central Georgia will remain underneath northwesterly flow aloft through the short term period, positioned between a strong upper ridge over the Great Plains and a persistent upper trough near the Atlantic coast. With clearing skies and increased radiational cooling, low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s across the majority of the area on Sunday morning, with even some low 60s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. The upper level pattern will be largely characterized by continued troughing over eastern US.
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) No significant changes to the short term with high pressure continuing its slow SSE movement into the Texas Panhandle. The thermal ridge remains offset to our north, so temperatures today and Sunday will remain near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 90s.
525 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center remaining to the ne and east of NM.
1052 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will prevail inland overnight as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
(Tonight) High pressure centered to the north is gradually being supplanted by a high pressure ridge building in the mid-Atlantic.
Further Details: An area of H5 high pressure sitting over northern parts of the Panhandles will slowly migrate southward today/tonight, and should be centered over the area by tomorrow. The center of the high being directly over the area leads to subsidence, and the overall dry column should lead to plenty of clear skies outside of only a few high clouds.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees. High pressure was centered over southeast Missouri. This high will move east tonight keeping dry weather across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 60s. This will keep dry weather across the region and allow warmer air to move in as well. Temperatures will be near to above normal on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
627 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Tonight) Fair-weather cumulus has developed across areas along and east of I-65 this afternoon as high pressure remains over the area. Td's in NW Alabama are in the low 60s while Td's in NE Alabama are in the upper 60s to near 70.
703 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Hot and dry weather will be the story for the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure remains centered over the plains. Dry surface conditions across the area will lead to surface dewpoints remaining in the lower to upper 50s, which will keep heat index values closer to the air temperature, with the highest heat index values of 100 to 105. So even with max temperatures around 100 it wont seem as oppressive with the lower dewpoints.
724 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will prevail inland overnight as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
835 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure along with drier and slightly cooler air will settle over the region for the remainder of today through Sunday.
A weak upper low that has brought light rain showers into the area will continue to push off and away today. However, a building ridge will bring a steady warm up through midweek.
838 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front sags into central Illinois.
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front sags into central Illinois.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ Tranquil weather will continue across North and Central Texas as mid-level high pressure remains in control.
/TW/ Tonight and Sunday: Tonight: Ridging is anticipated to build SE tonight, keeping NW flow aloft & dry thermo profiles around overnight. Lows will fall near climo in the low 70s in the S half of the area while cooler & below in the upper 60s to the N. Sunday: Near carbon copy of today is expected Sun as ridging & warm thermo help most areas warm near or above climo into the low-mid 90s.
649 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The quiet weather continues as water vapor imagery shows us in weak northwest flow aloft with a prominent ridge over the central US. Lowered highs slightly for today based on some of the cloud cover, the weak cold front, and observations not trending as warm. Highs for tomorrow have come down slightly with anticipated cloud cover and the stalled out cold front across the area.
GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper level ridge axis over the Plains, an upper level trough over the Eastern United States, and a tropical disturbance along the Texas Gulf Coast. /issued 251 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees. High pressure was centered over southeast Missouri. This high will move east tonight keeping dry weather across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 60s. This will keep dry weather across the region and allow warmer air to move in as well. Temperatures will be near to above normal on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
/issued 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ Water Vapor imagery currently shows the upper high situated over the Southern Plains and is providing us with another warm and sunny day. Not much, if any, change is expected by tomorrow evening as the upper high, for the most part, stays in place across the region. The only noticable difference is slightly warmer lows tonight as slightly higher dewpoints drift northwestward.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The upper ridge has slid a little south in the last 24hrs with a tropical wave moving into the southeast TX coast riding along the easterlies.
This low pressure center will shift away into the Great Lakes tonight, being replaced by an area of high pressure dropping in from central Canada. High pressure is expected to remain generally in place Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, with little change otherwise in the synoptic features across the area.
314 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A large upper ridge continues to sit over the center of the country.
/Issued 1208 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022/ /Overnight through Monday/ North and Central Texas will continue to remain under the influence of mid level ridging keeping things hot and dry across most of the region. Modest mid level easterly flow will continue around the periphery of the ridge and on the north side of a trough moving into Deep South Texas. That moisture will remain closely tied to the westward moving trough and will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across Central and South Texas through Monday. Subsidence associated with the ridge to the north and on the periphery of the disturbance should keep things dry across our area today and again Monday.
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning over central North Dakota, in advance of a weak disturbance progressing over the peak of an upper level ridge to our west. The pattern will remain similar through the day with the ridge axis near the Montana border. However, the south could end up being cooler than currently forecast depending on how cloud cover evolves through the day. Tonight's lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.
Tonight Through Monday E/NE flow at the sfc will begin to depart the area as ridging northeast of the area shifts southeastward. H500 ridging to the west of the area will expand east through the early week timeframe helping afternoon temperatures climb above normal values. Readings across the western half of the state will be the highest, at or above 100 F in places. When combined with the higher Td values, heat indices could approach advisory criteria across some parts of the state on Monday.
352 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A well defined upper level anti-cyclone centered over the Texas Panhandle, clearly visible early this morning on IR/WV satellite imagery, will maintain its grip over our area the next couple of days.
1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) No significant changes to the short term with high pressure continuing its slow SSE movement into the Texas Panhandle. The thermal ridge remains offset to our north, so temperatures today and Sunday will remain near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 90s. Things may start to change early Monday as a mid-level trough currently over the Gulf moves northwestward into southern and western Texas. PWs will be increasing Sunday night into Monday across our southern CWA as this system moves in and our upper ridge will begin to weaken. Temperatures Monday morning will be slightly cooler than previous nights in the 60s and low 70s.
Nonetheless, expect continual fluctuation through the morning until the lower levels dry out a bit late this morning/early afternoon per forecast soundings. After this clears up though later today, it should be a nice afternoon with highs topping off in the low to mid 70s. Broad troughing up the east coast with ridging upstream across western CONUS will position the forecast area in mostly northwest flow aloft in the coming forecast period. At the surface, a high shifting east through Ontario will extend a ridge south and southwestward over the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance continues to suggest ridging over Lake Superior will dominate the region through at least the middle of the coming week.
(Today) Mid / upper level ridge remains centered over the local region and 00z RAOBS sampled the warming low level temp profiles which support increased high temps today.
The influence of the upper level ridge will remain over our area with a tropical disturbance moving west into south Texas.
139 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure along with drier and slightly cooler air will settle over the region for the remainder of today through Sunday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal with lows in the lower 60s. A broad upper level trough persists over the Northeast U. This trough pushes a cold front into The Midlands and CSRA during the same time period.
A 595 dm anticyclone will continue across the Texas Panhandle today. The anticyclone may dampen to around 591 dm. The overall net result will remain unchanged as this high pressure center will be in control of our weather. Given the high pressure in control, pops will continue to remain at zero percent during the short term period. On Monday, the center of the anticyclone will be shifted southward as a weak mid level trof moves across the northern plains into the upper midwest. Highs should be able to peak into the low 100's for much of the FA for highs.