Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
203 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
630 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VIGOROUS UPPER TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING TWD THE SE CONUS. A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD SE INTO THE NW GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF DEPARTING TO THE EAST.
DRY AND WARMER. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
127 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
Sunny skies and light winds will prevail through the remainder of the day with winds becoming southeasterly later this evening as the surface anticyclone slides off to the east. This will intensify a southerly low-level jet late tonight, which will be a primary factor in keeping temperatures warmer than what we experienced this morning. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid/upper 30s for most of the CWA, but some low-lying areas, especially in the northwest Hill Country, may drop to near freezing around sunrise.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FROM COLUMBIA ON NORTHWARD SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER BEING GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST.
354 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH THE HELP OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
309 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
106 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
311 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ONGOING ENHANCEMENT TO THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT INTO LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION /850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO -12C BY MON MORNING/.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE HIGH. MOST TEMPERATURES BY DAWN MONDAY WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
THE MAJOR PLAYER IN ALL OF THIS IS COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS MODIFYING THE ATMOSPHERE BY BRINGING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH IT. AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER US THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ENVIROMENT MODIFIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AXIS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF US AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT OFF. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY BULLISH IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THIS LOW.
THANKS TO A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MOST ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. AS THE LOWEST RH VALUES LINE UP WITH THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS. AND THE HIGHER RH VALUES LINE UP WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.
Byrd Upper low currently over the region will continue to slowly drop swd. For portions of central MO where more breaks are possible, have trended slightly warmer, tho still below guidance. Tilly First forecast concern is threat for widespread sub-freezing temps in our region for early Monday morning. Timing of the RIDGE turning light winds from the southwest should be late enough to allow the vast majority of the Watch area to achieve a freeze, with central MO being the least confident area but still high enough to convert the entire Watch to a Warning.
313 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TROUGH WILL SWING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT UTAH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN RETURNING. WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT-MONDAY AS MOISTURE SPILLS OVERTOP APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE WITH MONDAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PSBL NRN PORTION OF CWA IN WAA REGIME WITH FORCING ENHANCED BY LEAD SHRTWV, BUT BIG STORY TUE SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE U50S/L60S.
315 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
310 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING MID WEEK. NE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE LOWS POSITION BEING OVERRIDDEN BY SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN LIGHT PCPN MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN. KEEPING N FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE MON NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 2000 FT DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL COME BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
556 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low moving southeast out of forecast area. Byrd A warming trend will begin Monday afternoon as upper level heights rise, low-mid level warm air advection increases leading to warming 850 mb temperatures, and the surface/low level flow becomes southerly/southwesterly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of the region. NAM MOS guidance looks too cool, warmer GFS MOS appears more reasonable.
303 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low moving se across wrn KY this afternoon is generating bands of rain/sleet and wet snow at many locations east of the MS River. Winds and lingering clouds may preclude freezing temps farther n/e.
1134 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TEMPS WILL WARM INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WY BY THIS AFTN WITH 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 0C. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT BY TUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN IOWA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDED WELL NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SECOND LOW LOCATED OVER SWRN ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN KS AND SWRN NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CNTL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TX WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE U. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME CALM AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS SW GA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE/WED AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER POP'S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LINGERS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
307 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER BY THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 60 INLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING A BIT COOLER.
438 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE 500 HPA TROUGH AND POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
347 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 2 PM CDT WITH LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z WILL DIG EAST/ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN THE LOWER 30S (NW) TO NEAR 40F (SE). IN THE LOW/MID 50S. NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS COASTAL CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND LIMITING RAPID DIURNAL HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF I 65. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE WELL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
SOME LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER SHEAR ALIGNS WITH WARMER TEMPS AND GREATER BOUYANCY.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TX FROM THE SW.
CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHT CHANCE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE SHUNTING THE WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE HIGH (70-80) POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT NEEDS UPDATING.
854 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AT THIS HOUR.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH. IN LINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN OUT OF CANADA FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS DRIVEN BY VORT MAXES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS TO ALLOW A WARMER AIR MASS TO INVADE THE REGION.
1128 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US TWO DAYS OF SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
/ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DRIFTING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NOW SHIFTED TO THE ERN CWA. A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER N GA DRIFTS TO CENTRAL TO S GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM THE MODELS HAVE IS WITH TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
1236 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
925 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 50. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIP WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS IMPULSES WITH NEARING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
842 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015/ (Today and tonight) The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the northern half of the area.
/ISSUED 212 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EAST TENNESSEE TODAY.
410 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2015 Drier and warmer weather returns today as temperatures return to near average for early June.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE WELL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NE OVER TN/KY AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SLOW TO BUILD EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW STAYS IN PLACE. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN TN/SRN KY.
1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TX FROM THE SW. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE 5 KFT TO 10 KFT LEVEL POSSIBLY AROUND 25 KFT.
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE 5 KFT TO 10 KFT LEVEL POSSIBLY AROUND 25 KFT.
923 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY. EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST. KEEPING SHORELINE AREAS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES CONTINUES TO EXTEND RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ESSENTIALLY DEAD OVERHEAD. THE RIDGING BECOMES A BIT LESS PROMINENT TONIGHT. THE LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. AND MAX TEMPS WILL THUS BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A SMIDGE AS THE HIGH TO OUR EAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY. BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF A WARMER DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE 850 MB AND 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE LAGGING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A LOSS OF COORDINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
701 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND REMAIN NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON DC. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TN WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENE WHILE WEAKENING. CLOSED LOW WEAKENS BY FRI AND SFC BDRY BEGINS TO WASH OUT.
THE UPPER LOW IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL RIDGING THROUGH THE AREA.
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA.
AS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
756 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
923 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
937 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
1233 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
1201 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN TO EASTERN TX THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFTING UPPER LOW TO THE SE. HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT, WITH MENTION OF THE CLOUD COVER AND DROPPING THE HIGH BY A DEGREE OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70. AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. /ISSUED 212 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EAST TENNESSEE TODAY.
CURRENT IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OVER MIDDLE/EAST TN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 62 83 62 / 40 20 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 81 62 / 40 20 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 61 82 61 / 40 20 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 59 80 59 / 40 30 60 30.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED THROUGH THE COLUMN THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US TWO DAYS OF SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.