Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As for temps, the retreating upper system leaves an upper trough stretching south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, keeping an upper ridge over the western Atlantic from expanding west over the Southeast. With the upper trough keeping subsidence from the Atlantic upper high from reaching the fa, in combination with dry airmass will create a diurnal temp range greater than average, today's highs are expected to be above seasonal, ranging from the low to mid 80s. Tonight's lows are expected to be a bit below seasonal, ranging from the low 50s to around 60 closer to the coast, mid 60s along the coast.
However, with returns increasing in the past hour will include a mention of isolated sprinkles north of the highway 2 corridor for the rest of the morning. 850mb temps look similar to yesterday, so overall the high temp forecast should also be similar.
Upper low is continuing to lift north and will affect flying weather here in the Mid State.
/issued 355 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/ Relatively benign weather will continue for the next few days with gradually warming temperatures as we continue to sit under a ridge.
Upper level low across the Ohio Valley will continue to lift northward tonight, with the mid to upper level flow becoming more southerly. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid 50s with the lower 60s near the coast and across parts of the Big Bend.
Mid level clouds exiting the region this morning will lead to some weak instability by this afternoon within the low level theta-e axis.
Despite a little more cloud cover today and temperatures a little warmer than yesterday, you still can't complain too much about this weather for the first day of October. The upper low that has been a factor in our recent weather will move off to the north and east through the remainder of the weekend. However, weak troughing will remain across the region through the beginning of the work week.
Inverted coastal trough will bisect our waters today with southerly winds a good 15 knots expected south of the trough with much lighter northerly winds on the north side of the trough. The trough will quickly lift north of the area this evening with southerly winds spreading across our Georgia waters, again possibly closing in on SCEC criteria for brief periods.
A weak ridge of high pressure will be over NM for much of this weekend providing drier conditions. The ridge will shift east later Sunday as a potent storm moves onto the OR or northern CA coast.
Mid-upper level ridge has flattened and "dirtied up" considerably with high-level cloudiness.
Weak high pressure will keep light winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
A cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley will gradually open up and lift northeast over the Great Lakes through Sunday while an associated U/L trough will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico. An U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will shift a bit to the east but will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals due to the large scale subsidence associated with the U/L ridge over the forecast area. However primary thunderstorm activity will develop during the mid to late afternoon hours each day as the east coast sea breeze collides with the west coast sea breeze over the coastal counties, with scattered thunderstorms developing mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south with the highest pops over southwest Florida.
With upper level low expected to drift slowly NWD and then NEWD thru 02/18Z, believe that lower level wrap around moisture associated with this upper level feature will persist across the mid state region thru 02/18Z too. Will continue with persistence of MVFR ceilings at all terminals, with a greater chance of ceilings lowering to the lower thresholds of MVFR ceiling criteria.
Highs in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. At 850 mb, a well developed low pressure system was centered over Kentucky and a dry north flow on the back side of this feature is still influencing SE TX. A weak trough was also noted in the lee of the Rockies. At 300 MB, a deep upper low was centered over Kentucky with a large upper level high over north central Mexico.
/Today/ A stacked low pressure system will remain nearly stationary over the lower Great Lakes region today, resulting in little change in sensible weather across Iowa. Regional radar indicates a few light showers moving around the western quadrants of the large low pressure system and spreading slowly westward.
A strong area of broad low pressure will push across Indiana today and tonight. The Low is expected to push to the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. High pressure will then build across the region to start the next work week with dry and seasonable weather.
Tame weather, with enjoyable low dew points and temperatures continues-- We remain on the dry side of a stacked low pressure system that has now moved back north, centered along the Indiana/Ohio state line as of noon. Some moderation in the pattern will send afternoon temperatures into the low 80s (F) for most. Thus, overnight temperatures are progged at a few degrees warmer than the past two mornings.
This, as weak high pressure ridging nudges west back into ECFL. A more persistent onshore flow is expected tonight near the coast as the atlc ridge builds back in which should keep low temps noticeably milder in the mid 70s at the coast. It is forecast to nudge a bit more northward over the next 24hrs as weak ridging builds across the area from the east.
The upper level low pressure that has been plaguing the eastern third of the United States will continue the meander through the short term. This will keep us in the NW flow and any vorticity lobes that rotate around the low will increase cloud cover at least briefly. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to mid 50s across the area (of course warmer temps under any cloud cover that moves overhead). Daytime highs will remain in the lower to middle 70s.
The closed upper low center leaned a bit further to the east acrs the north central KY portion of the OH RVR Valley. Mid and upper level jet flow wrapping around eastern flank of the upper low will allow it to gyrate to the north and northeast toward northeastern IND and southern Lower MI by this evening. In the mean time, the cyclone complex will continue to spiral a cloud shield and embedded areas of light showers/rain toward the local area today, with occasional mid layer dry air entrainment making for more drizzle or sprinkles at times. Similar air mass supports widespread highs in the low to mid 60s, with a few areas pushing the upper 60s again in areas that manage to get a few breaks/thinning in the overcast.
615 AM CDT SAT Oct 1 2016 Wobbling, cutoff upper level low over the ohio river valley will meander north today, finally getting a kick east late tonight/sunday as a trough drives into the west coast. Bits of upper level energy will ripple around the low, and with ample moisture to tap into, continue to trigger areas of light rain thru the day - mostly from around the Mississippi river eastward. Upper level trough slated to work from the west coast Sunday morning to across the Northern Plains Wed night, gradually showing a weakening trend as it then lifts northeast into southern Canada thu/fri. A sfc cold front will lead the system into the region Tue night/wed. Ample forcing/moisture to fire up some showers/storms along and ahead of the boundary, with the GFS/EC favoring overnight Tue/Wed night with the higher chances.
Rest of forecast looks good for the remainder of the day with increasing chance of rain showers across northwest Utah this afternoon as the lobe of energy associated with the core of the low over southwest Oregon extending into central Nevada lifts northeast across northwest Utah this afternoon. GFS 500mb temps cool by a couple of degrees and an inflection in the 700mb winds shows a low level trough moving into northwest Utah by 00Z Sunday.
The low starts to shift a bit further east on Sunday though LLVL RH progs continue to keep CIGS IFR for at least the morning though MAV MOS suggesting this trend. High The Mid/upper level low centered over Indiana will lift north into southern Michigan by this evening, then slowly northeast, losing it's grip on our weather. Until then expect a few more periods of light rain wrapping around the low and into southeast and east portions of south central Wisconsin. The low level pressure gradient weakens, along with the low/mid level winds. RH remains high in the lower levels, even as beginning to dry in the mid levels later tonight.
This feature will be motivated by increasing mid level ridging ahead of vigorous trof energy entering the westernmost CONUS. As the low begins to move away, there will still be a diurnal westward expansion of cloudiness and scattered light shower activity today across the PAH forecast area. Temps should peak only in the lower 70s southwest/upper 60s northeast.
We were expecting to get back above average today as the refreshing air mass has certainly modified a good bit over the last couple of days, but these increasing clouds will make for persistence with yesterday's effort in the low 80s for most of us. The water vapor is showing the upper low still over IN/OH for the overnight, but it is lifting slowly North at least over the last couple of days. A cloudy shallow ridge is sliding over Mexico and Texas this morning and will be spreading some mid and abundant high clouds East of the MS river by late today. The next big trough is digging down the BC and NW US coast this morning and will deepen over the Western US over the weekend.
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 High impact weather potential: None Upper low forecast to lift into MI and then slowly drift east Sunday. Until then moisture rotating around the low will keep skies cloudy and at least the threat for showers around through Sunday. This afternoon and tonight vorticity and isentropic lift increases ahead of the upper low then quickly decreases after daybreak Sunday. Sunday the low moves away.
/issued 411 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/ A large cut-off upper low will move slowly north from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Sunday will mark the beginning of an early week warming trend, as the upper low lifts out.
1119 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016 Main trof axis has moved east of the area with a few lingering showers across the far southeast plains. and low temperatures will likely be cooler for the mountain valleys where good radiational cooling is expected. Lee troffing across the plains will keep lows mild along the downslope regions of the lower southeast mountains. while the lower Arkansas river valley will see slightly cooler minimum temperatures.
312 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Upper level low will maintain shower chances through Sunday before high pressure begins to build overhead for the start of the work week. Widespread cu has developed with the heating that was allowed earlier, but breaks in the clouds should still let us realize temperatures in the low to mid 70's. The upper low will begin shift northeastward tonight with deep southerly flow helping to keep temperatures up overnight. However, since low clouds were prevalent around the low center this morning, have kept mostly cloudy skies tonight. Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low moving into NY by evening.
High The Mid/upper level low centered over Indiana will lift north into southern Michigan by this evening, then slowly northeast, losing it's grip on our weather. Until then expect a few more periods of light rain wrapping around the low and into southeast and east portions of south central Wisconsin. The low level pressure gradient weakens, along with the low/mid level winds. RH remains high in the lower levels, even as beginning to dry in the mid levels later tonight.
315 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Upper low over southern IN moves to lower MI tonight. Plenty of mid clouds rotating west across Upper Michigan today as the upper low drifts north. Highs today in the low to mid 60s, boosted a bit with any substantial clearing. No precip expected Sun night into Tue as high pressure ridging is in control. Could see fog Sun night as ridge is overhead, then again Mon night (especially over the southeastern CWA) as SE flow increase. Expect VFR conditions through most of the period as mid clouds move across Upper Michigan to the north of low pressure south of the region.
146 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Upper level low pressure will produce a few showers across the region this afternoon, with a slightly better chance for showers Sunday. Closed low over western Ohio will slowly wobble north through tonight with drier air wrapping into the system. Still expect scattered to isolated showers to develop in bands as spokes of energy pivot around the low. The upper low will shift northeastward tonight allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will allow for temperatures to stay warmer than average tonight but with some loss of heating, widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low moving into NY by evening.
226 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 Currently the upper level low that has been affecting the Midsouth the past few days has drifted north from the Ohio River to near Fort Wayne Indiana. Temperatures this hour range from the upper 60s to the low 80s as you bisect the CWA from northeast to southwest.
724 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Little change over the weekend with high pressure to the northeast and low pressure over the Ohio Valley.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms however will be diminished by the warming aloft under the ridge, so will taper those off just a bit. A weak upper level ridge will remain over Colorado today, but with enough residual moisture over the mountains and Palmer Divide region to produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. Winds will tend to be south to southeasterly as high surface pressure lies over Kansas and a lee side trough of low pressure is in place along the base of the Front Range foothills. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. For Sunday upper level ridging will be over the state with the next weather disturbance moving onshore into California. This will cause the ridge to move east over the plains as the low continues to progress eastward.
As the next upper-level low pressure system continues to push on- shore into the northern Rockies today, a moist SW flow aloft sets up over northeast Montana.
/issued 344 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/ Upper ridging over the area will flatten this weekend as a persistent upper low over the Ohio Valley lifts north and a trough begins to dig along the West Coast. We saw a few showers across the higher terrain and parts of SE NM yesterday with a weak disturbance.
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 Upper closed low that has been providing showers and cloud cover over the past few days continues to impact the region.
Moisture from the upper low has advected west along the Minnesota/Iowa border this afternoon.
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 The majority of the short term period will be dry as the region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
1046 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Upper level low pressure will produce a few showers across the region this afternoon, with a slightly better chance for showers Sunday. Closed low over western Ohio will slowly wobble north through tonight with drier air wrapping into the system. Still expect scattered to isolated showers to develop in bands as spokes of energy pivot around the low. The upper low will shift northeastward tonight allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will allow for temperatures to stay warmer than average tonight but with some loss of heating, widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low moving into NY by evening.
850mb temps look similar to yesterday, so overall the high temp forecast should also be similar.
Surface ridging will keep winds around 5 kts most areas, except 5 to 10 KTs Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau. This disturbance will continue to progress east today to cause a slight increase in middle and high clouds that will keep highs generally in the lower 80s similar to yesterday despite the return of weak east-southeast flow by this afternoon. This amplification of the ridge coupled with clearer skies will allow highs on Sunday to be 3-5 degrees warmer than today's closer to normals in the mid 80s.
Weak high pressure ridge across eastern KS will be slow to move through Sunday. Ridge moves slowly off to the east on Sunday with winds in central KS turning to the southeast by afternoon. Large scale upper low and trough across the western U.
731 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Weak low pressure will slowly pass well south and east south of New England today through tonight.
247 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 Upper low inching its way northward toward the northeast tip of Indiana this afternoon. Will have to monitor closely to see if dense fog will form, as indicated by some of the higher resolution model guidance. Upper low will track into southern Ontario Sunday morning, pulling most of the showers with it. Most of the afternoon model guidance is showing some isolated showers across southern Illinois, associated with a weak trough trailing the low. The upper level ridge behind our departing cut-off low will start to move overhead Sunday night bringing quite calm winds and potential for fog development as moisture remains trapped below weak subsidence aloft.
1148 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Persistent low pressure to that has been sitting to our west the last few days will finally start to lift northeast as it weakens.
Tonight and Sunday The upper low across the western Great Lakes will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers to eastern Wisconsin tonight. The showers will come to an end Sunday morning as the upper low moves away from the region and a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Went warmer than guidance and a degree or two warmer than surrounding offices due to the expected peaks of sunshine Sunday afternoon. This high will provide quiet conditions for the early part of the work week before a low pressure system takes aim for the region during the middle part of the week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 57 81 58 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 55 79 56 / 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 76 55 79 56 / 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 52 76 53 / 10 0 10 10.
(Issued 1053 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016) The upper low that brought low clouds and fog to the area yesterday morning is shift northward this morning. This has lead to less cloud cover over northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee this morning and a warmer start to the day. However, there is a trough axis rotating through western Tennessee associated with the upper low. Cullman county may make it into the lower 80s. KTW For 18Z TAFs: Low broken clouds in the lower end of the VFR range will continue in the short term until around 01Z at HSV and MSL.
ssued at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 The main forecast highlights in the short term are the upper level low over northern Indiana, fog potential tonight and shower chances Sunday. As of mid-afternoon, the center of the upper low was near Fort Wayne, Indiana evident by the clear swirls in visible satellite imagery. For Sunday, the upper level low pushes further away from the area but clouds will be slow to scatter during the day as there remains quite a bit of moisture. Look for dry conditions Sunday night and lows in the lower to middle 50s.
300 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Quiet tonight and Sunday in advance of a potent upper level low. A lead impulse ahead of a closed low that moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday will bring scattered showers to central and eastern MT tonight.
220 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Very slow moving closed stacked low was located over Indiana with cyclonic flow continuing into the CWA around the low. The cloud cover was keeping temperatures in the 60s across the northeast CWA, but has warmed into the low to mid 70s where the cloud cover is more scattered. Expecting lows in the low to mid 50s tonight. Upper low finally lifts out on Sunday, while the next low begins to push inland on the west coast.
639 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 High clouds have prevented fog development across southeast Kansas for early this morning and latest satellite imagery keeps the high clouds in place. The very pleasant weather conditions will continue for this weekend across Kansas with near normal highs today and a bit warmer on Sunday.
, with an upper ridge extending coast-to-coast across the southern-tiered states of the CONUS south into Mexico and beyond. If there's an upshot to this, today SHOULD be the warmest of the forecast, after which thicknesses/H85 temps gradually drop off as the focus of the upper ridge shifts east to the Gulf Coast states.
A better chance of widely scattered storms will arrive Tuesday night north of I-96 as a cold front approaches the region.
/issued 934 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ Weak ridging is in place aloft across the region as a TUTT low moves westward over Cuba. This feature brought some cooler temperatures aloft over the area today (KTBW sounding showed around -8C at 500 mb) and likely helped to make the earlier convection a bit more robust than previous days. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the central part of the Florida peninsula with a relatively light flow in place. Atlantic high pressure axis remains across the Florida peninsula through the next few days, with relatively light winds giving way to the afternoon sea breeze.
643 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Aviation An area of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today and tonight. High pressure ridges in for Tuesday ahead of a cold front dropping out of the Northern Plains.
Strong deep layer ridging centered southeast of the area is expected to be the dominant synoptic scale feature through the short term. Some temporal detail was added to the PoP grids to show a gradual shift of the highest PoPs from south to north through the day, as it typical for deep layer southwest flow.
This deepening of the marine layer has to do with very weak troughing over far northern California and is causing the boundary layer to thicken. What does this mean for festivities for the 4th of July? A persistent onshore push is expected to bring the low clouds and fog back in this evening. For the remainder of the week, look for a slow cooling trend as an upper trough slowly sinks into Central California. This will cause 500 mb heights to lower, further deepen the marine layer, and bring in cooler temperatures.
218 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Waves of low pressure with convection. The initial vort max and convective induce low pressure will head into SE OH with an uptick in intensity possible around 12z across C WV. This will allow the warm front to gradually lift thru. expecting a bit of a lull later this morning into the afternoon hours as attention turns W over KY for convective development in the warm sector with the approach of the S/W trof. The trof axis pulls E of the area toward Tue morning. There unfortunately still exists uncertainty on placement of the higher qpf given the persistent focus by the models on the synoptic versus mesoscale features.
lifting the warm front N in the process. Any thunder should remain along and S of the warm front.
Heights will begin to build aloft just to our southwest over the Big Bend region today, where the upper level high will become centered. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an apparent disturbance over northern New Mexico early this morning, on the northern periphery of the upper high.