Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
125 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic scattered showers will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Very light, isolated showers and sprinkles are currently shown on radar over southern portions of the area, with better coverage across the ridges. The aforementioned upper low will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week as it slowly fills and transitions across the region.
8), decent instability (MU CAPE around 2000 J/KG according to RAP analysis), and strong forcing ahead of trough axis continues to support clustering of showers and thunderstorms from the southwest to northeast. Main period of CAA starts to arrive later today as well in ND and tonight region-wide, so expect milder temperatures and cooler lows (40s/50s).
Latest near term model guidance suggests that the TN Valley will remain beneath a light-moderate NNW flow regime overnight, in the circulation around a cutoff upper low centered across western portions of VA/NC.
Storms are beginning to fire over south central SD along the nearly stalled cold front. Latest upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with closed low over eastern Idaho. Ridging in place across the central CONUS. Skies are mostly sunny across the Northern Plains this afternoon with some cloud cover moving in from the west associated with the Idaho upper low. At the surface, low pressure is located over southern Manitoba with a slow moving cold front extending south through western and central South Dakota. Upper low across Idaho will shift into Wyoming tonight as surface cold front in central SD moves very little. Decent instability and shear ahead of the cold front across far south central SD will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening with hail and strong winds the main concern.
Winds will be breezy overnight with gusts picking up in the north behind a cold front tomorrow.
A persistent, and massive mid and upper level trough parked over the entire Eastern United States along with an active southern stream, will continue to draw lobes of vorticity (ascent aloft) from the Northwest Caribbean Sea northeastward and across our region.
/issued 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ Northerly flow aloft continues across the Mid-South on the western periphery of the deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Multiple areas of cyclonic rotation are evident within this trough that is slowly retrograding westward at this time.
249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The rex block over the US continues its slow breakdown over the next several days, as the low out east slowly fills and lifts northeast, and the upper trof in the northern plains begins to advance eastward. Along with this wave comes a frontal boundary, currently bringing convection to portions of the Dakotas southwestward into Nebraska, with the wind shift moving southward into the high plains of Colorado and Western Kansas.
156 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 An upper low will be over the Canadian Prairies today with a trough extending south into Eastern Montana.
Mid and upper level ridging will start to influence the forecast through this weekend to keep us mostly dry, but it will also allow us to warm up.
As the larger scale trough axis remains well off to the west, prevailing southerlies will reinforce pooling moisture ahead of a slowly advancing cold front with surface dewpoints reaching into the 60s(F) in south central Kansas to well up into the 50s(F) further west/northwest. For tonight, should see lows generally down into the 50s(F) out west closer to the Colorado border with the lower/mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. As a result, rain/thunderstorm chances ramp back up through the day Friday, especially into Friday evening as a series of H5 vort maxima move out of the Southern Rockies and across the high plains of southwest Kansas.
530 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon is likely to be across the highest east-facing slopes given persistent E/SE flow.
For today, a rather cool day is on tap with chilly air working into the area behind aforementioned cold front. Aforementioned upper low lingers around Manitoba/Ontario through the weekend, possibly into the start of the upcoming work week, though models are struggling with the timing and path of its departure. Precipitation chances should diminish when the low departs. Low stratus behind a cold front continue to push through western into central North Dakota.
408 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 (Today and Tonight) Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday across the area, and possibly a few degrees warmer.
409 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 At 09Z, the surface cold front had advanced through Imperial, near North Platte and through Ainsworth. A closed low currently over southeastern Saskatchewan with an upper trough extending southwest across across the Central Rockies into Nevada and Utah. Much cooler h85 temperatures from 12-14C across the east today. Highs today were lowered about 5 degrees from the previous forecast to range from the lower 70s north and east, to mid 70s south and west. On Friday, the upper trough axis will advance east into eastern WY and central CO, with increasing chcs for showers/tstms moving into the west. Skies expected to be mostly cloudy by afternoon with cool highs from 70 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast.
506 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The surface features remain weak with high pressure off to the north today and low off the coast of Virginia. The main weather player has been a pesky slow moving upper level low that continues to rotate just to our east this morning. Friday the upper low will continue to pull northward, but still chance to likely PoPs are not out of the question particularly in the far east. Also temperatures should be a bit warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s by the afternoon. To start, a cutoff low will weaken as it drifts east of the central Appalachians into this weekend, with a ridge axis to move in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
As this happens, a large trough will wobble from the Rockies into the Plains, and this will nudge a cold front closer to Arkansas. South/southwest flow around the high will bring seasonal to a little above average afternoon temperatures.
Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along a cold front from central KS into northwest OK later this evening. This low is prog'd to reach south-central KS by this evening.
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The cold front remains the primary talking point for the short term.
A ridge of high pressure will continue building into the region providing mostly clear skies, light winds and warmer temperatures. One exception will be over far northeast Oregon and southeast Washington where some moisture associated with the departing upper level low will again produce a few showers this afternoon and evening.
The 588 dam ridge will remain situated over West TX today and tomorrow, but looks to flatten out by this weekend as a large upper trof sweeps through the Central Plains. Highs today will be a tad warmer than yesterday reaching the upper 90s to 100F for most locations besides those that received appreciable rainfall which may be slightly cooler. Tomorrow is forecast to be a more active weather day as an upper- level disturbance translates over the 500 hpa ridge. Models indicate a cold front/dryline intersect setting up over the TX/NM stateline near the LUB/MAF border by the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow should be a few degrees cooler than today due to additional moisture and cloud cover. Warmer and drier weather will transpire this weekend as the low- level thermal ridge begins to poke out further ewd each day.
919 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Upper level ridge building will push the trough of low pressure that was over the area north through today. High pressure and benign conditions will prevail through the period across the coastal waters.
Pesky upper low, which has been in reasonably close proximity over the last several days, is currently located over far southwestern Va.
High pressure will approach this evening behind the exiting frontal boundary, and will settle in over the region tonight and Friday, bringing a return to dry conditions. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
That western trough will push a front southeastward this afternoon and this evening. That cold front will be the focus for storms as it moves into the forecast area later today. So for now, have placed the highest PoPs northwest of I-35 with just slight chances through the evening hours southeast of I-35. While CAPE looks weaker than Thursday, mainly due to warmer temperatures aloft and cloud cover keeping the surface from warming up as much, there will remain ample moisture, with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches again.
The blocking pattern that has kept the area with quiet conditions the past several days will remain in place through much of this period. However, we will begin to see the pattern change a little as the upper ridging begins to break down and push east as troughing develops across the Plains. The flow becomes more northwest by the middle part of the week, with slightly cooler temperatures.
For today, a rather cool day is on tap with chilly air working into the area behind aforementioned cold front. Aforementioned upper low lingers around Manitoba/Ontario through the weekend, possibly into the start of the upcoming work week, though models are struggling with the timing and path of its departure. Precipitation chances should diminish when the low departs. At 11 PM CDT A cold front extended from low pressure in southeast Manitoba through northeast Montana.
An upper level low will continue to bring chances for rain to parts of central Indiana today and Friday. Early this morning skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy as clouds from an upper low move west into the area. The stubborn upper low across the eastern USA will continue to meander today, this time getting close enough to perhaps bring some weak forcing to roughly the southeastern half of central Indiana this afternoon. Given the weak forcing and the aforementioned model forecasts, will only go with PoPs across the southeast half of the area this afternoon and keep them no higher than the lower end of the chance category.
KJCT is currently showing clear skies, expect the low clouds to fill back in over that site within the next hour so. With upper level clouds masking the low clouds, it's difficult to see how close these clouds are, so will just start KJCT off with low clouds in anticipation of them filling back in. /issued 408 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday across the area, and possibly a few degrees warmer.
Subtle ridging remains in place across the south-central part of the country. The lower levels look to be largely uncapped late this afternoon with an absence of low level moisture. Upper level winds will veer to the southwest in response to a large trough moving across the Rockies.
Temperatures are generally in the low 70s and typical for mid- June. Aloft, high pressure continues to ridge from Texas into the Great Lakes region in the wake of a meandering cyclone now retreating north into the central Appalachians. Main feature will remain high pressure aloft over the region through the remainder of the week.
EPAC upper ridging continues to build inland over NorCal today resulting in warmer conditions with breezy north to east wind.
Current satellite imagery reveals several bands of clouds moving across the region this morning in association with the upper level low that is currently centered over western Virginia. The closed low is progged to continue drifting northwestward along the KY/WV border throughout the day before finally beginning to lift off to our northeast late tonight. As we remain under the influence of the low today, CAMs continue to indicate scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area beginning late morning/early afternoon and then diminishing towards sunset as we lose daytime heating. Similar to yesterday, high temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low temperatures tonight falling into the low to mid 60s.
The rex block over the US continues its slow breakdown over the next several days, as the low out east slowly fills and lifts northeast, and the upper trof in the northern plains begins to advance eastward. Along with this wave comes a frontal boundary, currently bringing convection to portions of the Dakotas southwestward into Nebraska, with the wind shift moving southward into the high plains of Colorado and Western Kansas.
Stalled low pressure system that was previously in place over the Carolinas has slowly meandered northward and will edge into the Ohio Valley later today. FEW/SCT cumulus development will be possible this afternoon tied to diurnal heating, but otherwise high pressure will keep winds light through the day. High pressure ridging that has been in place all week will continue through Friday while gradually weakening. Cutoff upper level low now over West Virginia will drift into southeastern Ohio today then lift off to the northeast Friday.
Temperatures will be cool again this morning, with near freezing temperatures again across portions west of the Divide. Highs this afternoon will be warmer, but seasonal. Showers will redevelop over the north this afternoon, as a trough from the departing storm system swings over the area.
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 An upper level ridge was over our area early this morning between a cut-off upper level low over southern West Virginia and a northern stream upper level trough over the Northern Rockies. The upper low will move slowly northward into eastern Ohio later today and tonight. Some cloudiness may rotate into southwestern IL today on the backside of the upper low, but it appears that any precipitation associated with this feature will remain east of the forecast area.
/Issued 331 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020/ The friendly, neighborhood, closed upper low that has persisted in the Southeast over the last several days will continue to meander northward from the Central/Southern Appalachian towards the eastern Great Lakes. As the upper low continues northward, the more comfortable temperatures we've experienced the last several days will slowly be replaced with slightly above normal temperatures and the return of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Instability is still very limited with minimal CAPE above the freezing level reducing the chances for widespread thunderstorms, though isolated storm development could be possible. Highs in the low- to mid- 80s today should also increase to the mid- to upper-80s as well.
Upper low will gradually weaken as it drifts slowly northward across WV toward southwest PA by 12Z Friday. The upper low continues to weaken and sprawls out across the Mid-Atlantic region.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure is still anticipated to build over the Northern Rockies for Friday and on into the weekend. This ridge will cause temperatures to warm back to seasonal readings, but showery conditions will persist.
950 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon is likely to be across the highest east-facing slopes given persistent E/SE flow.
A 500mb ridge of high pressure remains parked over West Texas and into the Central United States. Deep troughing continues over the Great Lakes region with another trough over the Northern Rockies. With Deep South Texas residing on the lee side of the ridge, moderately strong northwest flow will continue for the top half of the atmosphere with relatively dry, subsident air.
239 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The trough of low pressure across the southwestern states will weaken and move east with high pressure expanding across southern California.
One final chance for frost Thursday morning and for isolated thunder or showers over northeast Nevada today, and then a warmer and dryer period through the weekend.
Secondary cold front/period of CAA already starting spread into central ND, while the initial/slow moving frontal zone has move moved into MN. 8), decent instability (MU CAPE around 2000 J/KG according to RAP analysis), and strong forcing ahead of trough axis continues to support clustering of showers and thunderstorms from the southwest to northeast. Main period of CAA starts to arrive later today as well in ND and tonight region-wide, so expect milder temperatures and cooler lows (40s/50s).
0" exist across south Florida and the Bahamas, and south to southeasterly flow in the low-levels of the atmosphere will carry the deeper moisture into the area from south to north through the day.
Sitting between two troughs, one across the pacific northwest and one over the eastern CONUS, leaves our area under ridging. This low will begin to transition to the northwest and into the Ohio River Valley today with the ridging expanding further towards the east. This will limit the precipitation potential across the area for Thursday, however, there is still a chance that we could see some showers and thunderstorms develop on the peripheral of the ridge. A for temperatures, look for highs in the lower 90s for Thursday across the region. For Friday, afternoon highs will be a degree or two warmer than Thursday across the area.
556 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 An upper level ridge was over our area early this morning between a cut-off upper level low over southern West Virginia and a northern stream upper level trough over the Northern Rockies. The upper low will move slowly northward into eastern Ohio later today and tonight. Some cloudiness may rotate into southwestern IL today on the backside of the upper low, but it appears that any precipitation associated with this feature will remain east of the forecast area.
635 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 At 09Z, the surface cold front had advanced through Imperial, near North Platte and through Ainsworth. A closed low currently over southeastern Saskatchewan with an upper trough extending southwest across across the Central Rockies into Nevada and Utah. Much cooler h85 temperatures from 12-14C across the east today. Highs today were lowered about 5 degrees from the previous forecast to range from the lower 70s north and east, to mid 70s south and west. On Friday, the upper trough axis will advance east into eastern WY and central CO, with increasing chcs for showers/tstms moving into the west. Skies expected to be mostly cloudy by afternoon with cool highs from 70 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast.
Thursday - Thursday night: Surface observations currently show an approaching cold front draped from northeast Nebraska to the southwest through Columbus Nebraska. Hail potential will be quite limited today with very high freezing levels ~14,000 AGL. As far as temperatures go, expect much cooler conditions with most places remaining around 80 or below.
Early this afternoon, a cold front was draped across western MN. With the blocking upper low still spinning across the Appalachians and stronger upper troughing/forcing remaining off to the north and west, only gradually lowering heights are expected into Friday. Temps will be cooler for most areas as the front progresses across the region with more cloud cover and showers/storms.
An upper low centered over West Virginia will continue to move east northeastward and open up into a upper trof tonight. This trof will move eastward over the Atlantic coastline Friday as an upper ridge builds into the local area from the west. Strengthening subsidence beneath this ridge should keep any attempts at convective initiation in check on Friday. There could be some very isolated shower activity over south-central Alabama (east of a line from Brewton to Greenville), since subsidence will be weaker over those areas as they remain under the lingering influence of the east coast trough. High on Friday will be in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
Visible satellite imagery shows that convection is starting to blossom across the region, with morning fog and low burning off and the low level CU field becoming more prevalent. Trended them towards a blend of the CONSShort and ARW/NMM guidance through the early afternoon, which shows PoPs climing to the high-end chance or even likely levels over the higher terrain of SW Virginia and along the TN/NC border. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 66 90 69 / 20 30 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 64 86 66 / 30 50 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 84 65 87 66 / 30 40 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 79 59 82 62 / 50 80 30 40 20.
Lows around 70 in cooler spots the lower 70s. Deeper moisture will reach farther north across east central Florida with central portions of the forecast area looking to be a favored area for the highest coverage of afternoon storms. Will have POPs in the high likely range over much of the area with PWATs from 2. An UL trough (remnant of the earlier cutoff low north of the state) will ease away from the region.
Upper level low pressure over the Central Appalachians will drift slowly to the NE during the next several days. Highs will range from the mid 70s across the ridge tops of the Laurel Highlands, to the Low-Mid 80s in the Susq Valley. The upper low continues to weaken and sprawls out across the Mid-Atlantic region.
The impetus for this precipitation will be an area of low pressure aloft, that continues to slowly spin its way northward up the Appalachian chain. A mid level ridge axis will be the key figure through the weekend, allowing for the only real decent chance of dry weather through the upcoming week.
1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 At 09Z, the surface cold front had advanced through Imperial, near North Platte and through Ainsworth. A closed low currently over southeastern Saskatchewan with an upper trough extending southwest across across the Central Rockies into Nevada and Utah. Much cooler h85 temperatures from 12-14C across the east today. Highs today were lowered about 5 degrees from the previous forecast to range from the lower 70s north and east, to mid 70s south and west. On Friday, the upper trough axis will advance east into eastern WY and central CO, with increasing chcs for showers/tstms moving into the west. Skies expected to be mostly cloudy by afternoon with cool highs from 70 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast.
A large upper level low will continue to encompass the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the east, while models indicate a weak inverted trough over or near the area.
High pressure building in behind this trough will help temps recover about 5 degrees above today's highs, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some diurnal showers forming on mountains are possible, buoyed by higher temps but held back some by the increasing ridging.
The cold front is about to move through Dodge City right now. The front will stall out near the Highway 183 to 281 corridor. Otherwise, slightly cooler air will prevail across the FA. Good cracking the window weather (minus rainfall of course) to get in on some of that cooler air in the post- frontal airmass.
Mid-level ridging over Texas will support a fairly subsident airmass. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico will maintain a moisture southeast flow.
122 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Low pressure has slowly meandered northward into the Ohio Valley this morning. High pressure ridging that has been in place all week will continue through Friday while gradually weakening. Cutoff upper level low now over West Virginia will drift into southeastern Ohio today then lift off to the northeast Friday.
An upper level ridge over the region will allow for warm and dry conditions to persist today and Friday.