Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and thunderstorms are again possible during the day Saturday, and may become focused along a weak cold front. Added VCTS to southern TAF sites, as this area is closest to remnant cold front. /issued 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The wet pattern continues across west central Texas through the short term as a weak shear axis or trough remains over the central part of the state.
High pressure will move into the forecast area tonight and tomorrow, resulting in a drying trend.
A rather active and rainy pattern will continue over the region through the weekend as a midlatitude trof crosses the cntl CONUS.
A secondary cold front is descending into the area through southern Manitoba and will provide that bit of focus needed for showers to develop. the mid level H5 trof axis should shift into western Minnesota allowing for some drying aloft over the eastern Dakotas. H5 ridging will steadily build in aloft during the day. This period starts off with an upper level trough exiting the area and cool high pressure settling in at the surface. Expecting lows in the lower 40s in some areas.
1104 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough over much of the northern CONUS, with the next wave to affect the northern plains currently over MT. The next upper wave will pass over the region today, bringing another round of showers/storms, breezy northwest winds, and cooler air. Highs will be well below average, ranging from the lower 60s across northwestern SD and northeastern WY to the lower 70s across south central SD. High pressure will move into the region behind this system. Dry weather and a warming trend will begin on Saturday, with highs in the lower 70s. Deep layer ridging will ensue Sun with waa continuing into Mon.
Attention will then turn to an approaching cold front and the chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. Combination of upper-level forcing for ascent ahead of this feature and low-level moisture convergence along/ahead of cold front should result in a round of showers/thunderstorms for most locations late tonight and into the day on Saturday. expect an uptick in activity by mid afternoon for portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois as instability increases ahead of the cold front. Gosselin SHRA/TSRA will continue during the early evening hours on Saturday until the aforementioned cold front moves through the area and post-frontal subsidence brings an end to the precip. The cooler air mass will be noticeable right away: overnight temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, which will be around 10 degrees cooler compared to the previous night.
Surface wise, a broad and severed ridge axis lies across the Sunshine State, resulting in mostly east winds of 10 knots or less on our marine district.
This initial front will have all the low level moisture to work with, and by mid afternoon convection should erupt along it from north central KS to the Arkansas River.
Northwest flow aloft pushing drier air into the region but cold temperatures under a sharp upper level trough combining with moist ground to produce small isolated showers. Temperatures on Saturday will rebound as leeside troughing promotes better mixing but some residual moisture may cut a degree or two off of maxes due to evaporative cooling.
After a brief respite late tonight, precipitation chances will begin to increase early Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region.
223 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Breezy and cooler conditions this afternoon will linger until sunset. Expect temperatures overnight to be cooler than the past couple of weeks.
and basically pinched between the digging upper trough over the Nrn Rockies. and the broad ridging aloft noted along much of the Gulf coast. The aforementioned trough will allow for a weak sfc front to shift SE across OK/NW TX tonight. This convection should become more organized and focus a brief threat for heavy rainfall along the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR/SE OK Saturday morning through early afternoon before the theta-e ridging weakens and the convection begins to gradually shift SE.
where the stratus shield has scattered out and allowed temps to climb to near the convective temps in the lower/mid 80s. The low stratus shield is hanging tough as of 16Z along/N of I-20. This should result in temps climbing a little warmer than forecast. with additional convection developing over these areas later this afternoon where weak elevated theta-e ridging persists just SE of the weak shear axis extending from NW AR into SE OK/N TX. Did extend likely pops a little farther W across the lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep E TX given the convection firing over Tyler and approaching Jasper Counties.
Further west, a large area of rain associated with a larger upper trough digging into the Western Dakotas will bring a large area of showers with very isolated embedded thunder eastward overnight. As this trough pivots through the CWA rain will spread into areas east of I-29 after daybreak. Depending on if we can see any breaks in the cloud cover, several models continue to hint at redevelopment of showers and isolated thunderstorms after noon especially along the Buffalo Ridge. Saturday night looks dry and cool as chilly high pressure takes hold across the region.
/Issued 422 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/ An upper level trough dipping into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. and associated surface cold front. As the upper trough and surface front push southward over the weekend, that band should likewise move southward into our neck of the woods.
Additional showers/storms will be likely this evening into Saturday as a cold front moves across the region and an upper trough moves across the Plains.
607 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure will move east of the area Saturday.
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Main upper level low pressure trough to our west showing up real well on satellite late this afternoon. Strong upper divergence in advance of the trough was bringing a large area of showers to central and north central SD. This upper trough will continue to move east through tonight across SD and into MN by Saturday morning. The models then all show another weak short wave trough coming across the region from the northwest Saturday into early Saturday evening. The lift from this trough along with surface heating instability in the cool air should bring redevelopment of scattered showers and isolated storms across mainly our eastern cwa on Saturday.
Ridging to become stacked over the region to keep warm and humid late summer conditions ongoing for the forecast area. Mid level trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast U.
The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the Sierra yesterday has moved southward and is currently off the coast of Southern California.
Light winds are allowing the seabreezes to move inland with a merger likely by early evening near the highway 301 corridor.
232 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Water vapor imagery shows upper trough across the central CONUS with the main axis crossing the MT/ND border into ne WY. Surface analysis shows high pressure across MT pushing into the CWA. Precip will continue eastward late this aftn into the evng as the trough axis crosses the area. High pressure subsidence will then bring dry weather to the area for the remainder of the night and through Saturday. Colder temps across the higher BH are expected with lows in the mid to upper 30s. a secondary wave is progged to drop down the backside of the departing trough.
Precip coverage will diminish around sunset for southern locations with focus shifting to NE OK and convection along the approaching cold front.
As we head through tonight, warm advection showers will develop as a theta-e ridge lifts north into Kentucky. Upper trof digging into the Plains will drive a strong cold front into the area late in the day, with the best T-storm chances in the late afternoon and evening.
459 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Water vapor imagery shows upper trough across the central CONUS with the main axis crossing the MT/ND border into ne WY. Surface analysis shows high pressure across MT pushing into the CWA. Precip will continue eastward late this aftn into the evng as the trough axis crosses the area. High pressure subsidence will then bring dry weather to the area for the remainder of the night and through Saturday. Colder temps across the higher BH are expected with lows in the mid to upper 30s. a secondary wave is progged to drop down the backside of the departing trough.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016/ Upper ridging over the Gulf and troughing in the lee of the Rockies will keep the moist southerly flow in place today. Rain chances remain in the forecast and increase across the north as upper trough swings out through the Plains Saturday.
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure centered over the region will shift offshore tonight and remain anchored off the coast through Saturday night.
Cold front stretching from north central KS into northwest OK will be driven south tonight by potent upper wave moving across the Dakotas and should arrive in northeast OK in 03z-06z range. Cooler and drier air will begin to spread south during the day behind the front, which will eventually push south of the Red River by evening.
A weak west to east oriented trough is centered right over southern California, with east flow aloft in the northern part of our cwa and light west to southwest in the southern part. The trough won't move much through the weekend, but will eventually shift to a north/south orientation later in the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF both now in decent agreement showing the ridge building back into the area around mid week. This should lead to a brief warmup, possibly as early as Tue for northern areas and Wed for all areas before a weak trough moves through again later in the week. A mid/upper level trough of low pressure over the area will persist.
323 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Cooler temperatures and shower/storm chances highlight the short term as a cold front will move through the region late tonight and Saturday morning.
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 High pressure centered over the region wilL shift offshore tonight and remain anchored off the coast through Saturday night.
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm tonight with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s. On Saturday, a cold front will move out of the central U. The cold front will move into the forecast area sometime Saturday night with more thunderstorms expected to more across the region.
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 A trough of low pressure will bring unsettled weather to the area through Saturday, before dissipating Saturday night.
The main upper level short wave trough is entering central and eastern Montana early this morning. Tonight will see this thicker cloud deck and cooler air spread south along with a more north wind.
1204 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The pattern aloft featured southwest flow across the Central Plains ahead of a closed low pressure system in Arizona. Starting out Monday morning, weak flow aloft is expected to be in place, as high pressure sits over the east-southeastern CONUS, while a weak area of low pressure is located over the desert southwest. Through the first half of the work week, that southwestern upper low continues to fill, becoming more phased in with high pressure working to reestablish itself over the south central CONUS.
The radar mosaic this morning is clearly showing cyclonic rotation around the closed low that looks to be over central Arizona. A few showers and storms have popped up over Arizona at this hour which is to be expected thanks to the lift supplied by the low pressure itself. Models agree that this low will shift eastward through the day straddling the New Mexico and Colorado border as it does so.
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Aviation An isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible through early afternoon along and south of Interstate 96 ahead of a cold front. High pressure will be in control of the area weather Monday and Monday night with fair weather expected.
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A cold front will approach Maine and New Hampshire tonight and move off the coast early monday morning.
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 An upper level low pressure system currently centered very near the four corners, will track east and weaken tonight into Monday.
/issued 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather feature for the Midsouth for most of this week. This upper ridge was centered over the Carolinas early this morning, but will retrograde to the southern plains by midweek in response to height falls over the northeast U.
High pressure has settled over the western/southern Great Lakes. That sets us up for a relatively quiet but potentially foggy night ahead, as the high settles directly over northern MI. Otherwise, with the high overhead, winds will be light and favorable for radiational cooling. high pressure will drift across Lake Huron, while an upstream cold front makes slow progress across northern MN. Low-level winds are quite weak in close proximity of the high, inhibiting the advection of a richer and more unstable airmass into the area.
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Surface warm front extending into west central MN will continue lifting north as a cold front approaches from the eastern Dakotas. Prior to the frontal passage, highs will warm into the low/mid 80s.
Also, wildfire smoke continues to linger over parts of the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills/mountains, and we expect this to continue for the next couple of days, as an upper- level ridge continues to build. High temperatures will likely peak around a couple of degrees higher than yesterday, as temperatures have generally been trending around 1 to 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
225 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The short term will continue to be dominated by a strong high pressure system which will be retrogressing slowly west from the East Coast. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s and surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s.
540 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A cold front will approach Maine and New Hampshire tonight and move off the coast early monday morning.
With additional moisture and upper level energy moving westward around the upper ridge to our northeast, we can expect the scattered showers and storms to continue for the rest of the afternoon, and then quickly dissipating after sunset this evening.
Additionally, instability values across our southeast (around West Plains) are a bit higher than locations along the Highway 65 corridor so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few isolated storms develop in that region. The upper level flow will begin to veer from southwesterly to northwesterly by mid week as an upper level ridge develops over the northern plains. An upper level disturbance and surface cold front are forecast to surge southward mid to late week.
541 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning.
Rotation about the low continues to stream in showers and thunderstorms, as the center of the low shifts west.
Fog and stratus deck between Mobridge and Aberdeen this morning lifting to the north and dissipating.
With more cloud cover and thunderstorm development, temperatures may be a degree cooler than yesterday. Low pressure is forecast to dig over Eastern Canada, with trough extension over the Northeast U.
There is a bit of a temp and moisture gradient over the southern counties indicating a warm front, but with southerly winds throughout not a lot of convergence along it. Think that isolated cells will form a convective complex as it moves east, and there should be some more storms along the cold front as it starts to move into the northwestern CWA later tonight. Tomorrow, the cold front will push the rest of the way through the forecast area, with high pressure building down behind it. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than today but still in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
A "dirty" subtropical upper ridge persists over the region, but is weakening. The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures above normal and humidity elevated.
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Thunderstorms again developing this afternoon across the region, with the highest coverage over northwest MO where a subtle boundary has been lifting north and interacting with a weak wave over central NE.
A broad subtropical high pressure ridge aloft will be in place across the southern and central U.
Forcing for ascent should only improve overnight as an upper low over NE Arizona glides east into NW New Mexico. As such, we continue to favor the highest PoPs near the NM border overnight. Monday will see little change to this pattern as the upper low stalls in NW New Mexico and keeps a deep meridional fetch of subtropical moisture over the region. Upper level low to our west will slowly fill and evolve to a weakness between high across the SERN CONUS and a ridge from WY to SRN California and beyond. This weakness appears to hang around through mid week before high pressure appears to more or less take back control of the weather with a ridge extending will into Central Canada. Indications are that the ridge will be shunted southwest into northern Mexico.
With the higher dewpoint air in place, think most locations have the same chances of observing the more dense fog.
A broad upper trough off British Columbia will continue through the weekend, then dig south along the coast early in the coming week, then swing onshore late week. This will maintain onshore flow over the local area for at least night and morning low clouds and cooler temperatures.
An upper level low pressure system over the Four Corners area will move slowly eastward through Monday, as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Basin.
Synoptic Setup: A cool trough begins over the Northwest Territories and runs down through Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan where it fizzles out into zonal flow across Montana. Hot high pressure has developed over Nevada and is slowly spreading north into Idaho in the form of a ridge. cold front will continue moving though the area this afternoon cooling off the region with stable high pressure overnight.
Warm but less humid conditions will be introduced under building high pressure through midweek. Convection should fade with the loss of heating tonight but the boundary will become rather diffuse over the region, so some cloud cover may linger over the southern portion of the CWA and keep low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance.
451 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The short term forecast continues to be influenced by a closed low over the Four Corner region. Weak forcing associated with this system continues to show mainly stratiform shower activity rotating counterclockwise around this low. The closed low will slowly shift east over northcentral New Mexico by Monday with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms to remain over the southern half of the forecast area with lesser coverage across the north. A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest.
309 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The short term forecast continues to be influenced by a closed low over the Four Corner region. Weak forcing associated with this system continues to show mainly stratiform shower activity rotating counterclockwise around this low. The closed low will slowly shift east over northcentral New Mexico by Monday with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms to remain over the southern half of the forecast area with lesser coverage across the north. A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest.
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level ridge along the East Coast into the Great Lakes Region.
238 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Mid/Upper level trough remains in place near four corners region, with ridge across the southeastern US. Monday: As the upper low shifts slightly better forcing is depicted and a stronger precip signal in our east through the day Monday (particularly late Monday afternoon). As upper low shifts east air mass aloft will decrease, and depending on timing of cloud cover/precip we may trend cooler than guidance is currently indicating. For now consensus is favoring slightly below normal highs in the lower 80s for most locations in our CWA.
Upper low across the Upper Texas Coast and southwest Louisiana will continue to slowly approach the area tonight into Monday.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will be late tonight into Monday morning as weak area of low pressure approaches. Increasing rain chances expected today and especially Monday when a mid/upper level low meandering over HGX's CWA slowly drifts toward the middle TX coast. A sfc reflection of the low aloft will also drift southwest providing low level convergence across mainly the eastern CWA and over the waters. Therefore, went with chance pops across the east with 10-20 pops across the west today, then spreading the higher pops farther west on Monday with likely wording across the east.
/issued 137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge extending in from VA. By mid week the upper ridge will become more established over the Central Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the week.
High pressure breaks down Monday with increasing breezes.
Models are bringing better low to mid level moisture associated with an upper low over Southeast Texas westward over the CWA tonight and into tomorrow. We should also see a little cooler afternoon highs tomorrow, mostly in the upper 80s.
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper low over the northwestern Gulf/far southeast Texas this afternoon. This upper low will be the main weather feature of interest for the next several days. With the upper low in proximity to the region, we will continue to see above normal moisture levels. For tomorrow, a similar pattern is in store as we continue to see an increase in deep layer moisture due to an increase in easterly flow in the lower and mid-levels.
A nearly stationary upper level low pressure system was located over the Four Corners Region Sunday afternoon and will slowly progress to the east Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a slowly advancing cold front drops southward into northern South Dakota late tonight, stalling near the Highway 14 corridor midday Monday. Meanwhile, convection firing to our south in southeastern Nebraska may lift into portions of east central/southeast Iowa late evening into the early morning hours with the arrival of the low level jet.
545 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The short term will continue to be dominated by a strong high pressure system which will be retrogressing slowly west from the East Coast. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s and surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s.
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Warm/moist advective processes are well underway this afternoon and continue to strengthen with time, with the surface warm front now lying roughly from near Grand Forks, to just west of Brainerd, to the northern suburbs of the MSP metro area. There is some uncertainty regarding severe potential with the cold front later Monday/Monday night, which is somewhat conditional on the departure/dissipation of morning clouds and destabilization in the wake of overnight convection. The cold front will continue to move through NW WI monday evening continuing showers and thunderstorms through the region. The precipitation will taper off west to east after midnight as the cold front moves out of the area.