Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
INITIALLY THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE TO THE NE IS STEADILY MOVING EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FROM TRACKS IN ITS WAKE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE WEAK AND POSITIONED TOO FAR NORTH TO EVEN BRING THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/ Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper ridging aloft. Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING N MT PER 14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
/ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES YESTERDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
947 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPLY THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
1231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
1119 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR HAS FINALLY FILTERED INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE MORNING. WHICH IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING ON MAY 2ND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD. WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGING ON 12Z OHX/RNK SOUNDINGS WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 43 74 49 / 0 0 0 0.
731 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
OUR DRY AIRMASS WITH A PW AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH UNDER STRONG INSOLATION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MODELS WERE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST. LOOKS LIKE A BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE CENTER.
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
Readings will top out in the lower to middle 70s. Morning high clouds will give way to few to scattered cumulus by afternoon and with high pressure remaining in control, look for winds to remain light and out of the west/southwest. Temperatures this evening will slowly fall into the 60s before bottoming out in the low 50s tonight.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE, WITH THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM LEADING TO A FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE LEESIDE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND A GULF COAST HIGH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN TO WAKEENEY LINE. WEST OF THERE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. LEESIDE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING IN A RATHER DRY AIRMASS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH MIDDAY.
1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A WEAK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT DEW POINTS ALONG BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 29000 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF ONLY 53 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 47800 FEET.
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWING A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S, THE TEMPERATURES HAD RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 60S BY 10 AM, HEADED TOWARD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
1251 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE AND CREATE A MINI-RIDGE OVER ALABAMA. A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AND A FEW ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS MOVE IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
IN RESPONSE SURFACE TROFFING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER (AS IS OFTEN THE CASE).
723 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) The flow aloft over the next 36 hours will generally be progressive as the upper trof just off the Atlantic Coast departs eastward while the flat ridge aloft currently centered in the vicinity of the Rockies shifts into the Nation's center. Despite the clouds, the retreat of the low-level anticyclone will bring increasing southerly flow and improved warm advection although deeper moisture is still in the waiting.
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
744 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT/CALM WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL KEEP RIDGING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SW. H7 STEERING FLOW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT SO CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS/SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ANY VALLEYS REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND WAA. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.
1034 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO A BIT COOLER UP THERE.
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH PLAINS.
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER KY AND TN RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT SE OF KY/TN BY THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO IL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER. EVEN WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A COMPLEX 1002-1003 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IS TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND ALREADY EXCEPTIONALLY COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FOR EARLY MAY. BROAD 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST. WHILE THE HIGH TO THE WEST INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION TODAY.
The KS activity is associated with a weak mid-level vorticity trough and vorticity max. Overnight temperatures will remain in the lower 60s to upper 50s in part to increased moisture advection and cloud cover.
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LARGELY DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A flat upper level ridge over Texas will keep the weather quiet on Sunday.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PACNW.
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.
1248 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY BUT THEN WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER. EVEN WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
Temperatures across much of southwest IL into southeast MO will bottom out around 30 degrees with the colder, low lying rural areas of west central IL and east central MO dropping down to the freezing mark. Radiational cooling should allow much of the region to bottom out in the lower 30s with widespread frost, and parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois closer to 30. Current frost advisory has much of this covered well, and will change the aforementioned SE MO and SRN IL to a freezing warning where the coldest readings are expected. trof moving into the Atlantic, upper ridging into the Nation's midsection and deep trofing aloft in the western CONUS.
618 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Cool high pressure over northeast MO will slowly back off to the east overnight but a light easterly wind, generally clear skies and a very dry airmass will allow temperatures to drop rapidly this evening.
SOURCE REGION FOR FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAINS BONE DRY ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1029 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A DEEP TROUGH DOMINATED THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE YIELDS TO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL DOMINATES EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF. THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
902 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY ARND 03Z. THE CASE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE /ESP ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH /-4C TO -8C/ WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLY COLD.
835 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 High pressure centered over central Illinois this evening resulting in a clear sky,light winds and chilly temperatures. 1034 mb Canadian high pressure near the IA/IL/MO border at mid afternoon will slowly drift east into IL overnight and Sunday morning. MET/MAV guidance similar for lows tonight mostly in the lower 30s with a few sites in upper 20s in eastern IL. Widespread frost/freezing conditions expected later tonight into early Sunday morning over central and southeast IL. High pressure will be east of Illinois by late Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the low 60s.
941 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NATURE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA INCREASES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. HAVE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SOME OF THAT COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT.
509 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA WITH INCREASING WAA AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING. THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE LONG PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
1256 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE WERE 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.
727 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AVIATION ANOTHER NIGHT WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING SUNSHINE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH BREEZY.
616 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL DOMINATES EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF. THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH BREEZY.
708 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015/ CIRRUS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS THIS RIDGE EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. A MINOR TROUGH TO OUR SW IS SET TO BRING A RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL RAMP ON SUNDAY AS THE REGION FALLS BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NW AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
549 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A DEEP TROUGH DOMINATED THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE YIELDS TO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES REACHES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 60S IN NAPLES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FROM LAND AREAS AND GULF WATERS AS BOUNDARY HAS SLID FARTHER SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S EVEN ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST.
CLEAR SKIES WITH INTERIOR WIDE UPPER 30 TO UPPER 40 DEW POINTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURE READINGS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
Upper ridge remains over the Rockies with northwest flow aloft locally. Models, to varying degrees, keep the mid level moisture and upglide in place into early daytime hours Sunday as the upper ridge axis pushes east into then past Kansas into the late afternoon.
623 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015/ A LARGE UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED OVER MUCH OF THE INTER MTN WRN STATES. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 20S DEWPOINTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS AT FREEZING OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
1052 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON. THE CASE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE /ESP ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. LITTLE TO BE GAINED BY DROPPING WARNING AT THIS TIME AND TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH /-4C TO -8C/ WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLY COLD.
929 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Cool high pressure over northeast MO will slowly back off to the east overnight but a light easterly wind, generally clear skies and a very dry airmass will allow temperatures to drop rapidly this evening.
EXPECT EVERYONE TO AGAIN SEE FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING LOWS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
1113 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 High pressure centered over central Illinois this evening resulting in a clear sky,light winds and chilly temperatures. 1034 mb Canadian high pressure near the IA/IL/MO border at mid afternoon will slowly drift east into IL overnight and Sunday morning. MET/MAV guidance similar for lows tonight mostly in the lower 30s with a few sites in upper 20s in eastern IL. Widespread frost/freezing conditions expected later tonight into early Sunday morning over central and southeast IL. High pressure will be east of Illinois by late Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the low 60s.
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AVIATION ANOTHER NIGHT WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING SUNSHINE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT THIS NIGHT AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.