Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1127 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Satellite is showing cumulus development taking place over the higher terrain with good heating and dewpoints in the mid 40s over the mountains and 50s on the plains. Pressure heights will continue to rise as the ridge gradually advances. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures up to the low to mid 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s across the foothills and mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s in the mountains. Expect moderate precipitation over the mountains and lighter precipitation with gustier winds across the lower elevations. The upper ridge is right over the CWA on Monday.
/Issued 104 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ /Today and Tomorrow/ After a couple days of scattered popup showers and thunderstorms, precipitation coverage will be much less today as ridging builds over the region once again. Daytime highs should top out in the low to mid 100s for most with RH falling to around 20-30% late this afternoon. /NEW/ /Monday night through Sunday/ The center of the mid-level ridge will move to near the Four Corners through the week with a gradual shift to the Central High Plains on the weekend. The combination of strong subsidence under the ridge and a constant fetch of Gulf Moisture will result in mostly clear, hot, humid and rain-free weather across North and Central Texas through the week.
Cooler temperatures are expected across interior portions of Northwest California this week, with highs generally expected to reside in the upper 80s to mid 90s. An upper low was positioned offshore from NRN CA this afternoon while ridging was taking place over the Intermountain West.
Tomorrow will end the streak of rain and cooler weather, as a stalled front retreats north, bringing heat and humidity back to the region. Most of the region saw highs in the low to middle 80s although near and south Of Tupelo it did reach 89-90 degrees. A relatively weak 591dm ridge will build in over the Midsouth by the middle of the work week.
Atlantic ridge axis remains across central Florida with a relatively light S/SE flow prevailing. Hot temperatures persist with highs in the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s across the interior, and peak heat index values around 100-105. Atlantic ridge across the area will keep winds out of the S/SE.
644 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Quiet and mild weather in store tonight under dry NW flow aloft, with ridge axis a bit to our west and edging eastward. The HeatRisk values are still in the high category, so the Heat Advisory still looks in good shape for tomorrow across the area.
An approaching mid level short wave and associated sfc cold front will advance into western Mi Mon morning. Warm conditions will continue Monday with increased humidity in advance of an approaching cold front. A marginal risk of severe weather is still in play for parts of the area, particularly the east/southeast sectors where the cold front will pass during the afternoon hours.
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 (This evening through Monday) Expect a flat upper level high pressure ridge to remain over the area through Monday resulting in hot and dry conditions.
A cooler night expected under mostly clear skies on tap. High pressure is slated to build in briefly overnight before shifting southeast through the day Monday. Upper ridging and southeast breezes will push temperatures into the 90s west river on Monday. Across the east, expect cooler conditions on the edges of the ridge with less mixing.
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms on Monday.
The Atlantic ridge that has been keeping winds at a fresh to moderate easterly breeze will start to sink south as a robust mid to upper level trough positions itself over the Great Lakes area. From synopsis, a sharp Atlantic ridge axis will remain draped across the Florida Peninsula through the rest of this weekend, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes over the Florida Keys waters. The ridge axis will slowly slide southward beginning on Monday, resulting in slackening east to southeasterly breezes.
Blended CAMs solution showing potential of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through nighttime hours across entire mid state region as upper level troughing influences slightly deepen and an upper level disturbances at least approaches if not moves across western portions of our area by late overnight hours.
Key Points: - Heat begins to build in today with clearing skies and temperatures reaching the lower 90s across the area. Northwesterly flow has continued to remain in place over northeastern Kansas as a large upper-level ridge builds in from the western US. This afternoon's high temperatures should top out in the lower 90s with the humidity making it feel close to 100 degrees. By Monday, the upper ridge will continue to slide to the east and increase temperatures into the mid 90s with heat index values reaching upwards of 105-106 degrees in the afternoon.
Drier conditions expected to start the work week, as the warm front will be north of the region with broad swrly flow ensuing.
Mid level ridging will retain its grip on North and Central Texas weather through Monday with continue hot temperatures and little chance for rainfall. /Issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ /Monday night through Sunday/ The center of the mid-level ridge will move to near the Four Corners through the week with a gradual shift to the Central High Plains on the weekend. The combination of strong subsidence under the ridge and a constant fetch of Gulf Moisture will result in mostly clear, hot, humid and rain-free weather across North and Central Texas through the week.
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Aviation --Showers possible tonight, Monday-- Currently, a cold front extends south from a low over northwest Minnesota.
Another day of above normal temperatures expected on Monday, though values should be a couple degrees cooler.
858 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place with lows ranging from the lower-mid 70s far inland with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
634 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) Subtropical Ridge axis will extend from east of Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to the Four Corners region. An inverted trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move onshore the Texas/northeastern Mexico coast tonight and over northeastern Mexico on Monday. This will be associated with a brief surge of deeper moisture and forcing from the trough, the seabreeze, and right entrance region of a weak upper level jet.
High pressure continues to dominate across all of the Pacific northwest, continuing abnormally hot and dry conditions through Monday. In addition to the heat concerns, breezy afternoon winds are expected across northwest/west-central Montana this afternoon and evening in response to a weak feature flattening the the high pressure ridge. Monday will likely be the last day of excessive heat as the ridge begins to weaken slightly.
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A weak warm front moving north from the Carolinas to the Virginias will help generate numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Monday. The front is expected to dissipate early in the work week, with sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic taking control of our weather for the rest of the week. The upstream trough axis will migrate over the southern Appalachians on Monday.
Deeper moisture will be across the northern cwa closer to the upper trough axis and surface front.
Drier conditions expected to start the work week, as the previously mentioned warm front will be north of the region with broad swrly flow ensuing.
A cold front approaching from the west is anticipated to reinvigorate showers/storms this evening. The development of the nocturnal stable boundary layer greatly limits the influence from the low level jet and a bulk of the supportive shear in the lowest km just off the surface. Dome of high pressure over the southern CONUS now looking like it will encounter great difficulty expanding northward with broad northwest flow over central North America.
548 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant weather maker through the week, leading to typical summertime weather. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place with lows ranging from the lower-mid 70s far inland with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with broad ridging aloft and highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with southwest winds at the sfc.
336 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A typical summer pattern can be expected during the upcoming week, with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon and early evening. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. The weak upper trough and its associated surface reflection will drift west early in the period and back toward the east later in the period.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): KBRO Doppler radar indicates a few isolated convective cells over the adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters right now, and with the inverted mid-level trough now inland over Mexico and rapidly moving west, only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated today for the Moderate-Drought-parched Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.
Weak mid/upper level troughing will exit to our east Tuesday. It appears that weak subsidence behind the trough will keep the chances of thunderstorms relatively low. Expect highs in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies.
A ridge will be building back into the region and that will allow for temps to climb back up again. The ridge this week is not a strong as the previous ridge and therefore we expect a daily chance of some showers or storms this week. If that is the case expect more showers and storms later this week with "cooler" temperatures. Overall, expect highs this week in the low to mid 90s with heat advisories in certain areas with afternoon showers and storms.
Temperatures are generally in the lower 80s across the Florida Keys. A dominant ridge over the North Atlantic extending southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula will slowly weaken over the next couple of days and drift southward, resulting in a slight decrease in the overall steering flow.
As a ridge builds to the west, some anticyclonic vorticity advection would likely keep shower and storm coverage lower, a pattern which is shown in several convective-allowing, high resolution models. However, several synoptic-scale, low-resolution models are showing more widespread precip coverage with overriding moist flow in the low-levels. This puts the area sandwiched between the 2 systems and near the base of a long-wave trough through much of the extended.
Monday through Tuesday, upper ridge amplifies over the northern plains as robust thermal ridge peaks Tuesday.
Atmospheric recovery is taking place across western Minnesota early this afternoon ahead of a vigorous short wave over North Dakota and an approaching cold front. A cooler and drier airmass will arrive Monday with high pressure sliding across the Upper Midwest. A warm front will follow Monday night as it shifts east across the Plains into Minnesota. As temperatures climb well into the 90s across western Minnesota, heat indices in the low to mid 100s are possible depending on whether dew points continue rising through mid to late afternoon. Held off on an Excessive Heat Watch due to the trend for slightly cooler temperatures in the last several runs of the NBM, but heat headlines in some form appear likely for Tuesday.
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Atlantic ridging wwd across the nrn Gulf while a sfc trof is noted over the wrn Gulf. otherwise weak ridging persists just to our north. Local 88Ds show the scattered showers/storms which were more widespread across mainly the sern zones have been having trouble moving too far nwwd into the teeth of the ridge. Otherwise, another partly cloudy and rather warm day is ongoing with temps away from the precip in the lower/mid 90s. The elevated moisture/rain chances mean more seasonal temps through Tuesday with highs mainly in the lower/mid 90s.
A cooler night expected under mostly clear skies on tap. High pressure is slated to build in briefly overnight before shifting southeast through the day Monday. Upper ridging and southeast breezes will push temperatures into the 90s west river on Monday. Across the east, expect cooler conditions on the edges of the ridge with less mixing. The period starts of with somewhat flat ridging over the forecast area early on Tuesday. However, some energy in the flow will swing a trof through the region come Tuesday night.
Given the weak mid-upper level winds, the leeside trough was also quite weak and displaced north, leaving western Kansas in a continued fairly weak MSLP gradient. The lower tropospheric thermo fields will continue to warm over yesterday, and this will result in hotter surface temperatures. Despite the lower dewpoints, we will approach if not touch 105F heat indices, however we will hold off on issuing any Heat Advisories this shift given the expected marginal setup and confined mainly to the central and south central Kansas counties of our DDC forecast area.
329 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A short wave producing active convection right now across southeast IA into northern Il will drop its energy southward toward our FA today as its parent trof axis shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. With dew points in the lower 70s and highs reaching the lower 90s, we'll have sufficient fuel in place to be ignited as this upper energy is thrown into the mix during the peak heating hours. The question is how far west that will trail along the front from its source energy track to our north/east, so our southwest IN/northwest KY counties will be within the highest potential impact zone to watch for better storm organization.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) As the upper-level ridge continues to slide westward towards the southwestern U. These thunderstorms are being aided by weak disturbances moving under the ridge.
1145 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 An approaching mid level short wave and associated sfc cold front will advance into western Mi Mon morning. There will be a wind shift to the WSW following any afternoon convection, with a more notable wind shift to the NW late Monday evening, marking the main cold frontal passage. Warm conditions will continue Monday with increased humidity in advance of an approaching cold front. A marginal risk of severe weather is still in play for parts of the area, particularly the east/southeast sectors where the cold front will pass during the afternoon hours. High pressure will bring dry weather Monday night through Tuesday with lower humidity levels also evident for the period.
318 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances should return today and this evening with a crossing cold front.
However, I have not included any deviation from VFR conds at this time given the isolated nature of the showers later in the day on Monday and the low confidence in their placement. Beyond that point, upper ridging will begin building to our west with flow aloft becoming nearly zonal. Aside from some rain chance across SE AR on Tuesday, the pattern will transition back to drier and warmer. Some rain, or at least slightly more cloud cover, will limit temps over SE AR to the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the low/mid 70s.
1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Upper ridging will begin to build over the region this evening and continue through Tuesday returning hot and dry conditions to the area.
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week. Overall a quiet day is forecast with high pressure the prevailing synoptic feature. With mainly zonal flow in the mid levels and high pressure building in at the surface, a very non-eventful day is on tap for the region. However, with the drier air in the mid levels, dew points will be lower than what has been seen recently, topping out in the low 70s. A mid-level trough will be located to our north Tuesday morning.
The ridge will begin to flatten through the day today, allowing for precip chances to increase further inland as the sea breeze moves through. The Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s. Mid to upper level ridging will be stronger both west (across the southwest) and east (across the Atlantic) of the region with a bit of a weakness across the the southeast and this will be further amplified as an upper level disturbance moves across the eastern Gulf mid-week.
Today Through Tuesday Night Upper level ridging begins to build back across the Four Corners region of the CONUS. On Tuesday, the upper level ridging becomes more pronounced, remaining across the Four Corners region of the CONUS. However, the trend with the short-term forecast will be the lowering of rain/storm chances along with temperatures increasing in response to the strengthening upper level ridging.
115 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms on Monday.
A line of convection will move through the area this morning and it will become dry by early afternoon as the cold front sweeps through the area. Fairly active period of weather this week as a pair of upper level troughs track across the region.
1258 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place with lows ranging from the lower-mid 70s far inland with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. This will lead to subtle lowering mid- level heights dipping into the southeast states while shunting the upper level ridge axis down into Florida.
315 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A weak cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and a few storms this morning.
Things will be overall quiet again today as an upper high continues to build over the Four Corners region. Diurnal terrain induced convection is expected over the high terrain of New Mexico this afternoon into the evening, but showers and thunderstorms should remain well west of the Texas/New Mexico state line due to lack of upper level steering flow. Temperatures should be a degree or two cooler this afternoon as the upper high remains just to our west, but highs will still reach into the upper 90s/low 100s area wide. On Tuesday, the ridging will be fairly broad across the southern U.
208 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 The upper ridge will be over Montana today which will bring a hot day to most areas. The ridge moves east tonight. A mainly dry cold front moves during the day on Tuesday. Gusty NW winds will develop behind the cold front and another day of low RH on Tuesday with highs in the 90s will lead to critical fire weather conditions.
This forecast is slightly warmer than the guidance blend and the 50th percentile of the NBM. It is slightly cooler than the RAP and HRRR models. A cold front will be moving through the region along with sharply falling h700mb temperatures and falling 500mb heights. This would seem to be a good set up for strong or severe storms but west and southwest winds Tuesday have swept the low level moisture and instability east of the region. The models continue to build an anomalously strong h500-300mb ridge into Nebraska and Kansas later this week.
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022 (This evening through Monday) Expect a flat upper level high pressure ridge to remain over the area through Monday resulting in hot and dry conditions.
A line of convection will move through the area this morning and it will become dry by early afternoon as the cold front sweeps through the area. Clearing skies throughout the evening hours and into tonight will be conducive to significant radiational cooling as high pressure quickly overspreads Upper Michigan behind today's cold front.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 70s, with the chance of ground fog where rain has occurred should winds remain light. High pressure will be flattened over the next day, allowing precip chances to increase. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the 98 to 104 degree range.
Temperatures and dew points are both between 3 and 8 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday. Between warmer temperatures and higher dew points, heat index values across a wide swath of the forecast area from central Missouri south and east through east central Illinois will rise to 105-107 for several hours.
By the mid to late afternoon, precipitation chances will begin to lessen as the aforementioned trough shifts into the southern Appalachians, pulling the surface boundary back to the northeast.
This convection will likely be dry as the higher PWs don't arrive until later in the evening. With the increase of clouds and precipitation, temperatures Tuesday look to be notably cooler.
Pops were kept on the low side due to uncertainty over timing and location of any thunderstorm complexes. After today, guidance indicates the heat makes a return as the upper westerlies retreat northward and upper ridging builds up from the Gulf Coast. However, Tennessee is forecast to be in a relative break in the upper ridge between two stronger high pressure centers over the southern Plains and western Atlantic. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) 00Z model suite indicates we will remain underneath a weakness in the upper ridge through the rest of the forecast period, situated between the main H5 ridge centers located to our west and east.
This should provide a "cooler" day. It will be cooler compared to today but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s.
230 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Pos theta-e adv ongoing this morning ahead of the next ridge topping impulse. Sufficient LL moisture will be in place east of the trough to support isold TS late this afternoon across NW SD into central SD. Although moisture will increase sig aloft, very dry westerly flow in the low levels will limit precip chances with better precip limited to the deeper monsoon plume to the south. Have opted for lower numbers, with cooler temps certainly possible if thicker clouds/smoke develops. The region will remain on the edge of the ridge the remainder of week, with semi-unsettled flow supporting slight chances for storms at times with isolated coverage.
637 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A weak cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and a few storms this morning.
635 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns today and this evening with a crossing cold front.
This cold front will drive the weather in the short term. The cold front that was south of the area will retreat north as a warm front in response to the wave.
At 00Z, the upper high was over southeast NM near 596dam at 500mb and is forecast to move over central NM today on it's way to east central AZ by late Tuesday.
418 AM MDT Mon Aug 1 2022 An upper level ridge. NW (today) to W (Tue) flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the northeastern (today) and northern (Tue) periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Synoptic subsidence assoc/w broad ridging aloft will yield clear (or mostly clear) skies and a warming trend in this period. Colorado Front Range, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge). The GEFS, GFS, and ECMWF are showing mid and upper-level ridging over the Four Corners and Central Plains regions.
635 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 A typical summer pattern can be expected during the upcoming week, with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon and early evening. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. The weak upper trough and its associated surface reflection will drift west early in the period and back toward the east later in the period.