Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
438 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. SHARP H5 TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A SECONDARY TROF. ALONG THIS TROF THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATER PART OF TONIGHT.
NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED OVER 35-40 MB ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 6 HR ISALLOBARIC SFC PRESSURE RISES NEAR 10 MB. HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
411 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LEAVING US TO DRY OUT BRIEFLY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
459 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING.
IF WE TRULY GET THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN HERE AS QUICK AS IT IS LOOKING. I HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS BACK AT LEAST A CATEGORY AND WE COULD HAVE PROBABLY GONE COOLER THAN THAT.
THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST RESULT IN A SHIFTING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. GOING INTO TOMORROW EXPECT A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.
Expect the low clouds across the east to slowly erode through the early evening. As the low clouds burn off tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will quickly warm mostly into the mid and upper 80s.
EARLIER TODAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BROKE AWAY FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST 45/130W AND MOVED NEWD THROUGH OREGON. A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON MONDAY.
Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through midweek then a drier and warmer pattern will return by the end of the week.
FARTHER WEST MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, READY TO DESCEND ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS ON MONDAY.
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED BACK INTO THE GULF AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN RETREAT BACK AS A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE COAST AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WITH A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROF NOTED FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AND WARM FRONT STAYING SOUTH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE OVERNIGHT LOW PERIOD BEGINS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.
STOUT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PUSHED THE FIRE DANGER INTO VERY HIGH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS/HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR A WHILE AS WE TRANSITION INTO COOLER AND MORE DAMP PATTERN. BUT WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S.
INCREASED WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT EXPECTING THE WARMER TEMPS TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE MIXTURE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AT THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING THESE WINDS HAD TIGHTENED IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ENCROACHING ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING FROM DRAINAGE WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST SINKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY SO DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE WEST. THE LOW ALONG THE COAST DROPS FARTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT SO FLOW VEERS EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST DRIVING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH REMOVING ANY CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
914 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 A THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THE FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS ALLOWING 500MB RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NOAM.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST INTO SRN MN. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN VERY DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. AND A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER SRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF NE MINN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK.
SURFACE OBS AND 00Z BMX SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AND IT WILL TAKE SOME SERIOUS MOISTENING TO OVERCOME THIS.
625 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015 High pressure ridge off to the east. The front will be pushed north and south by the passage of two low pressure systems, with additional nudging likely by associated rounds of convection. Unfortunately, model disagreement and run-to-run variability persists in the exact timing/strength of the lows and also how far north/south they will push the front. The initial energy ejecting out of a Pacific coast upper trof/low will develop weak low pressure over the Plains during the day.
BUT COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND AT LEAST WEAK OVER- RUNNING AT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS SE TX. /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ TRICKY OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WITH A WARM FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. AND WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MOISTER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IT MAY VERY WELL BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND INITIALLY LOW DEWPOINTS.
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OR SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WESTERN STATES LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WEST OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS LIFTING THE AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE VICINITY OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT (INVERTED TROUGH) PIVOT SLOWLY AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.
WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT. COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO ITS NORTH WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE TRI CITIES AS A MINOR SHIFT IN THE POSITION WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS HASN/T REACHED THE GROUND AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL TRYING TO SATURATE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO SOMEWHAT BELOW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MUCH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBPT TO JUST SOUTH OF KHOU TO KBYY. /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY. SFC ANALYSIS AT 20Z HAS WARM FRONT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO HOUSTON HOBBY OVER THROUGH KATY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. WARM FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN RATHER STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOME DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.
SURFACE OBS AND 00Z BMX SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AND IT WILL TAKE SOME SERIOUS MOISTENING TO OVERCOME THIS. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MOISTENS THE LOW LEVELS.
High pressure ridge off to the east. The front will be pushed north and south by the passage of two low pressure systems, with additional nudging likely by associated rounds of convection. Unfortunately, model disagreement and run-to-run variability persists in the exact timing/strength of the lows and also how far north/south they will push the front. The initial energy ejecting out of a Pacific coast upper trof/low will develop weak low pressure over the Plains during the day.
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
950 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST.
WHILE RIDGES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE INCLUDED MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AT THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
1226 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 A FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THE FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS ALLOWING 500MB RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NOAM.
TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN ALONG WITH THE HIGHER DEWPTS SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY BECOME FAIRLY STEADY PART OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE MON MORNING.
601 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE MON MORNING.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OFF THE WEST COAST WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U. THE H85 MAP HAD H85MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO. SOUTH FLOW AND A THERMAL RIDGE WAS OVER NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL H9 WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
1200 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N INTO E TX AND NCNTRL LA. CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL JET CENTERED OVER E TX TO DEPART E TONIGHT AND MONDAY INTO MS AND AL. WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through midweek then a drier and warmer pattern will return by the end of the week. Figure any wet and slushy snow/graupel accumulations will be brief for most lower elevation and valley roadways, likely on the order of minutes, but there may likely be some outlyers that could linger on for perhaps an hour or two since most roadway surface temperatures are forecasted to remain above freezing and that will work to hinder accumulation.
THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER. SHOULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AL. LN /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN UPPER LOW CHURNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THOUGH AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES OVER NRN MS/NW AL, THIS IS MAINLY FALLING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS (WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOTED FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER). WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SOUTHERLY FLOW/VIRGA PROCESSES WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD/ SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM- MIDNIGHT IN NW AL, AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
MUCH WARMER MONDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING ACROSS NEAR THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO THE BLKHLS AREA. NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT DRAWING IN COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR. BUT WITH UPPER SWRLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOME MIST/LIGHT RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NW SD THROUGH THE DAY.
1244 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHTS FREEZING TEMPS.
714 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
In contrast, areas of central Missouri were able to warm into the lower 60s. We are looking at readings in the lower 50s towards I-49 with middle and upper 40s across the eastern Ozarks.
WITH A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROF NOTED FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AND WARM FRONT STAYING SOUTH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE OVERNIGHT LOW PERIOD BEGINS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 67 58 79 / 50 80 70 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 65 55 77 / 30 70 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 64 56 77 / 30 70 60 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 65 52 75 / 20 50 70 60.
737 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST.
AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N INTO E TX AND NCNTRL LA. /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL JET CENTERED OVER E TX TO DEPART E TONIGHT AND MONDAY INTO MS AND AL. WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
900 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FLUCTUATE INTENSITY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE. THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 65 DEGREES. THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.
LEAD S/WV IMPULSES FROM A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
403 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
624 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN UPPER LOW CHURNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THOUGH AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES OVER NRN MS/NW AL, THIS IS MAINLY FALLING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS (WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOTED FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER). WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SOUTHERLY FLOW/VIRGA PROCESSES WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD/ SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM- MIDNIGHT IN NW AL, AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN ALONG WITH THE HIGHER DEWPTS SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY BECOME FAIRLY STEADY PART OF THE NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT THEN ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
1032 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
935 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND AT LEAST WEAK OVER- RUNNING AT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
TRENDED THE HIGHER POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. LEAD S/WV IMPULSES FROM A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
930 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015 Relatively quiet night across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, despite WV imagery showing the area under a deep upper trough extending SW into the Gulf of CA.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL VORT MAXES WERE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN/DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE THE MOST LIKELY PTYPES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN IRON COUNTY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL BE A STIFF SW FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 524 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NWD.
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES SPINNING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS A CHUNK OF ITS ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WAFFLE UNTIL SATURDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN INTO MID MORNING HOURS LATER TODAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SWING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTO EASTERN CANADA SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE RIDGES.
THOUGH LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AT MOST SPOTS AS WE SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST COUPLE OF OVERNIGHTS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WILL SECURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHEAR APART AND LEAVE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN ITS PLACE INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH THE PERSIST MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA AND LIGHT PRECIP MAY PERSIST ACROSS FAR E OK / W AR WELL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, slow-moving cold front south of Mobile, and a quasi-stationary front oriented east- west across the FL Big Bend and Panhandle. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an enormous trough over the Southern Plains and much of Mexico, and a ridge over the eastern CONUS. Additionally, a focused zone of deep moist convection ahead of the cold front will gradually shift eastward overnight.
1041 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING WEST OUT OF OKLAHOMA.
633 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DRY AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES ACROSS THE AREA.