Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
433 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region tonight, then dry and seasonal conditions will begin the work-week. As low pressure lifts northeastward, the surface cold front will drag through, bringing additional rain showers this evening.
248 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low pressure will move northeast tonight followed by dry weather and high pressure through mid week. A high pressure ridge build into Maine will remain in place as a low moving along a cold front along the Downeast coast will force warmer air over the colder air at the surface. This will produce some sleet and freezing rain and drizzle across the region tonight. Temperatures will rise tonight into the lower 30s across northern Maine. Temperatures will peak around sunrise tomorrow then fall as the front moves east of the area and the ridge builds back across the area. The ridge will dominate through the end of the period.
With the lower chances for convection this afternoon, will remove the marginal threat from the area for the rest of the period. The cold front is just now beginning to enter the forecast area so rain chances will remain fairly high through the rest of the afternoon, especially in the southeast. The cold front is still stretched through Central AL as we go into Monday, but it should be pushing south and east of the area around midday.
Today Through Monday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from central Louisiana through the Arklamiss region. This will be aided by a mid level trough moving through during the afternoon. As expected, shallow cold air has moved in behind the front, with what light precipitation there is in areas below freezing becoming light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. This will also continue this morning, as temperatures in the north and west will be slow to warm above freezing. The aforementioned trough will push east of the area tonight, with any lingering precipitation coming to an end as drier air moves in. High pressure will pass through the region on Monday, with the airmass moderating.
Cold front is still forecasted to move into the area and drop temperatures down several degrees colder than what we saw last night.
Warmer air at the low levels has been building back in from the west ahead of the next cold front approaching MT/ND from the north. Arctic cold front will approach the area later today with light snow developing along the boundary.
Minor flooding is possible across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
1145 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Large scale pattern has been rather stagnant then last several days consisting of a broad trof over the CONUS with an upstream ridge sitting off the west coast. At the sfc, high pressure remains in control across the central Plains.
A cooling trend is forecast to continue through Monday as an upper level trough settles over the region.
207 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 The cold front is bisecting the area from the SW to NE and is about to move into Huntsville. The trough axis will move across the area tonight and with saturated conditions up to about 850mb there should be enough lift to squeeze out a light shower or patchy drizzle and have adjusted the forecast to reflect this. Thankfully, the continued cloudiness and slight breezes tonight should keep the entire area above the freezing mark. As the high nears the area in the afternoon any lingering precip chances move off to the east as drier air filters in.
A southwest flow is in place aloft this afternoon over the region as a trough sits across the central part of the country and a ridge over the western Atlantic extending over south Florida and Cuba. At the surface, high pressure remains to our northeast with a frontal boundary and an area of showers and thunderstorms across the southeast. Temporary split flow U/L pattern will develop as a strong U/L disturbance cuts off over California with southern stream flow exiting the base of the trough across the southern plains to the mid Atlantic coast. A strong U/L ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida creating large scale subsidence with continued above normal temperatures.
Current WV imagery shows well defined mid to upper positively tilted trough working into Central Nebraska and Western KS at this hour. Therefore, will carry advisory for freezing drizzle for a few more hours until 13Z. Only have temps in the southern zones reaching around freezing highs topping out in the low 30s.
As the cold air in the low trop deepens, we should see more of a wintry mix vs. the light freezing rain/drizzle we saw last night into early today. Dry, weather for Monday through Monday night with high pressure continuing to build into the area.
210 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Canadian high pressure is resulting in cold temperatures enhanced by our 3 to 12 inch snow cover.
Tonight and Monday: Very cold as high pressure builds into the area with center of the high shifting from ND to MI.
407 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front slow working across Kentucky this afternoon. The cold front will usher in a cooler airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across portions of central Kentucky this afternoon. The other concern tonight will be how much if any freezing rain will be realized given the antecedent warm conditions, and current road temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in most spots. Despite some of the uncertainties opted to hoist a WSW for northern portions of the CWA where temperatures will be cooler overall, but you could still see some issues on untreated and elevated surfaces in the more marginal locations. By Monday, this precipitation will quickly move east out of the area, as an area of high pressure builds southeast into Kentucky.
Out west a closed low was moving onshore along the northern CA and OR coasts. At the surface, high pressure dominates over the Great Plains as another continental polar airmass pushes into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Highs Monday do not look to be much warmer than today's as models keep ridging over the area with no warm air advection.
Monday will be sunny and warmer as gusty south to southeast winds develop by the early afternoon. In the area where there is some snow the highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 30s. The area favorable for this elevated fire danger levels will be west of highway 283 and south of where the higher snowfall fell last night. Models today were similar to the models yesterday in advertising a nice warm up through mid week as an upper level low deepens just off the southern California coast.
111 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A low pressure system riding up along a stalled front, will bring a mixture of precipitation today. However some freezing drizzle is lifting up the northern Miami Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region for Monday with highs ranging from the upper 20s in the far north to the upper 30s and lower 40s across the far south. Monday night an upper level trough axis will be centered across the central United States with clear skies.
A reinforcing cold front is expected to also pass through the area tonight, shifting winds to the east.
High pressure builds into the region tonight providing mostly clear skies and cold conditions.
240 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
424 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front slow working across Kentucky this afternoon. The cold front will usher in a cooler airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across portions of central Kentucky this afternoon. The other concern tonight will be how much if any freezing rain will be realized given the antecedent warm conditions, and current road temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in most spots. Despite some of the uncertainties opted to hoist a WSW for northern portions of the CWA where temperatures will be cooler overall, but you could still see some issues on untreated and elevated surfaces in the more marginal locations. By Monday, this precipitation will quickly move east out of the area, as an area of high pressure builds southeast into Kentucky.
Boundary layer moisture increases toward saturation and NAM visibility forecasts show some restrictions in what would likely be freezing fog given well below freezing sfc temperatures. Have added patchy freezing fog in that area as a result. Currently looking for highs ranging from the mid/upper 20s in the far northeast (McCook area) to the low/mid 40s far southwest (Kit Carson Colorado to Tribune).
This light precip will mainly be over the mountains and the lower elevations of central and east-central Oregon.
108 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
244 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 After a prolonged period of freezing drizzle across the region, precipitation had largely come to an end this afternoon. We could still see a rogue patch of freezing drizzle or very light snow late this afternoon as short wave energy moves in from Kansas and Oklahoma, however this will by far be the exception. We have therefore gone on the cold side of guidance with lows expected to fall into the lower and middle teens.
The threat for severe weather is diminishing as widespread rainfall continues to stabilize the low levels of the atmosphere. Rain with some embedded thunder will continue tonight as a cold front remains upstream in Alabama and southerly flow continues to supply ample moisture.
328 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 An Arctic cold front will finish moving southeast through the region this afternoon and evening with a period of gusty west- northwest winds. High pressure will move into the region Monday.
Tonight will be the low point in temperatures this forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. Sunny skies are expected Monday with highs rising into the 30s to near 40 with northern Missouri remaining a bit cooler in the mid to upper 20s with snowpack on the ground.
A cold, low pressure trough will drop southward through the western states through mid week.
As this occurs a sfc cold frontal boundary will approach [slowly] from the NW and bring a continued chance for precip. rain chances will ramp up again ahead of the cold front.
1049 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Areas of freezing drizzle will continue through early morning across much of the area. Additional light amounts of freezing drizzle or ice will remain this morning of up to a few one hundredths of a inch. Temperatures will barely reach near the freezing mark today for most location with another cold night tonight back down in the teens.
A shallow cold front is located as of 11/11Z from east of KAEX to KLCH. /issued 418 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ As of 4 AM, regional surface observations indicate a cold front extending from NE Louisiana southwestward through Alexandria and into the Gulf of Mexico around Sabine Pass. The cold front will continue to progress across the CWA through the morning hours. Moisture overrunning the surface cold front will result in a slight chance of showers through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the region resulting in cooler and drier conditions tomorrow.
236 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 (Tonight and Monday) Primary concerns for the short term are the freezing temperatures expected overnight. Clear skies and light winds will leave most areas in the low to mid 20s. Otherwise, the sunshine from this afternoon should improve the conditions on any bridges and overpasses that had ice accumulations from this morning. High temperatures will be just below normal for this time of year in the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures are currently below freezing in that area, but the depth of cold air is still remains in question. Due to the uncertainty of how quick the band will move and available moisture, only a Special Weather Statement was issued to address possible light freezing rain and sleet.
There should be some increase in high clouds and the plains winds will tend more southeasterly, which will help pull cooler air back in. Monday and Monday night, the flow aloft will be southwesterly ahead of an upper level trough over northern NV. The strongest qg ascent associated with this trough will be over NV and UT, but there will also be some weak to moderate qg ascent through the day over western CO. Southwest orographic component less favorable for zones 33 and 34 with the higher amounts more localized. Across the northeast plains, a shallow cold front is expected to move into the region from the northeast as an overrunning pattern develops. Will also need to keep an eye on the potential of some localized freezing drizzle following fropa after 12z Monday.
A cold front, extending from the low and across northern ND early this morning, will dissect our forecast area into northwest and southeast halves shortly before 18Z. Given these temperatures and north winds less than 10kts, wind chill values stay mainly warmer than -25F.
That will start to change later tonight, though, as leeside trough begins to take shape across eastern Colorado.
Surface wise, an expansive western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the northern half of the Sunshine State and well into the Gulf of Mexico. Under partly cloudy skies and mostly southeast winds, temperatures will climb into the lower 80s in many island communities.
344 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing scattered rain showers that will end as a few flurries or snow showers.
With the sun, temperatures should be a solid 5 to 10 degrees warmer today across the CWA. and of course, tonight will be cooler as radiational cooling will occur more readily than this morning.
1027 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018 Arctic cold front was analyzed from eastern ID across southwest WY to west of the CO Front Range.
At the surface, cold front has now pushed off of the TX Gulf Coast with a high centered over western OK. ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement with a cold front to move through toward the end of the work week. Both models take what is left of the impulse over southern CA across the central Plains Thu with cold front moving through Thu night. High pressure has moved into the area. A wind directional change is anticipated as the high settles in, but the speeds will stay around 5 kts. Fire danger concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the next few days.
Pronounced anti-cyclonic/surface ridging should be enough to clear us out. A secondary cold front coming down from the Northern great Lakes late tonight will probably be just enough to keep winds from decoupling, and will keep mins in the 5 to 10 degree range overnight.
255 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 The cold front is now fully into the area and stretches from Jasper to Cuba in Sumter county. The cold front is still stretched through Central AL as we go into Monday, but it should be pushing south and east of the area around midday.
Cold front has made it through Nashville but not quite to Smyrna at this point according to the latest obs. The front will accelerate in forward speed as an upper trough approaches from the southern and central plains. It looks like the cold front will clear the CWA by 21-22z. Cold front has passed through BNA and MQY recently but not CSV yet.
328 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U. on Mon as a trough digs into the western U.
Cooler and slightly drier air will move into the area, but still anticipate a little bit of rain or perhaps drizzle tonight and Monday.
Lingering precip across the southeast counties will encounter warmer temperatures and should begin to switch back over to all liquid form by sunset. Clearing skies and dry air will allow temperatures to drop back below freezing overnight across the entire region, with tonight's low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s across the northwest to near 30 across the southeast. Northeast surface winds will become easterly during the afternoon as the high moves eastward. It will not be quite as cold with lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
233 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Showers end as a light wintry mix tonight into early Monday morning as a cold front passes. A cold front will march quickly across the region this evening. Temperatures will plummet quickly behind the front overnight with the northwest half of our forecast area ending up at or below freezing by dawn Monday morning. This could fall as just about anything with surface temps falling below freezing, an eroding warm nose aloft, and decent omega in a seeder-feeder cloud layer above. Any precip quickly dries up by late Monday morning as high pressure builds in and decreasing clouds will occur from west to east during the day.
Some patchy freezing drizzle will also remain possible across southeast Kansas. Otherwise, expect clearing from west to east across the area by midday through the afternoon with the passage of the upper trof.
A low pressure system will move south along the coast on today and tonight, but bring little in the way of precipitation east of the Cascades.
Confidence is high enough to insert a TEMPO at ktyr, kggg and kshv for -FZDZPL for a few hours, but by the time it makes it to kshv /if it holds together/ temperatures may be above freezing and thus -SHRA may be more likely there. /issued 1032 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ Patchy drizzle continues across much of the area this morning, some of it freezing aross the portions of our region that remain below 32 degrees. Meanwhile, temps continue to hold near-steady, meaning that a large portion of our area remains below the freezing mark. Morning sounding at KSHV seems to be far too warm to see any sleet, but the freezing layer appears to be deeper w of KSHV.
321 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Cold high pressure will again build south tonight and bring another cold day to the area Monday.
Surface temperatures are at or above freezing most everywhere, so we have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory.
A light rain/drizzle mix is ongoing across the Coastal Plains and gulf waters in wake of the morning cold front. Temperatures continue to fall today with the CAA with temperatures in the upper 30s from Cotulla to Victoria, and in the lower 40s from near Laredo to Kingsville.
Off to the west over Oregon and Idaho this afternoon, a pretty well defined low pressure system on both WV and IR imagery continues to dig southeast.
308 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with warm front extending southeastward into the Northern Plains, north and east of most of the CWA. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis now over the high plains, with long wave trough and area of low pressure along the Pacific NW coast. High clouds continue to push over and through the ridge, bringing variably cloudy conditions. The cold front will arrive over northeast WY late this afternoon and push east-southeast across the rest of the area during the evening hours.
642 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will build into the region and provide dry conditions through Friday night.
Winds will become southerly today, becoming breezy during the afternoon and evening ahead of an upper trough and surface cold front expected to move through the area tonight. High temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, but will continue to be quite variable across the area. Temperatures in Northern Kansas will likely even reach the low to mid 60s. As mentioned previously, a cold front will push through the area late overnight tonight into Friday morning, switching winds around to the northwest as it does so.
Mid-level ridging currently over the Central Plains will progress eastward today and flatten out this afternoon before becoming southwesterly tonight as a trough that is currently over the Pacific Northwest moves quickly east. The flattening out of the mid-level flow this morning will help promote a deepening lee trough today. Due to the high wind and very low relative humidity, the inherited Red Flag warning was extended to include the entire CWA. Depending on how early in the morning this trough begins to move through the region will determine the low temperatures. For now, have collaborated with neighbors to have the lowest temperatures (upper 20s) in far western Kansas, near the Colorado Border. After the cold front moves through on Friday afternoon, upper level ridging will begin to move in and dominate the first part of the week.
/Issued 626 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018/ High pressure will move overhead today, with a wedge remaining along the east coast through the remainder of the forecast period.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the Northern Plains. High clouds continue to pass over the ridge into the area, while at the surface dense fog has developed over eastern/northern portions of the area in moist southeasterly flow. Cold front pushes into the area later tonight. Cold front exits off to the east on Friday with a secondary front coming through Friday night.
As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. With high pressure building in there really isn't much to speak of other than unusually cold temps. Coldest day of the week is in the forecast for today as we remain under the influence of an East Coast upper trough and north-northwesterly low/mid-level flow. Daytime temps will range through the low/mid teens, while tonight's lows will dip into the single digits above and below zero as skies clear out and winds abate.
As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. Coldest day of the week is in the forecast for today as we remain under the influence of an East Coast upper trough and north-northwesterly low/mid-level flow. Daytime temps will range through the low/mid teens, while tonight's lows will dip into the single digits above and below zero as skies clear out and winds abate.
With a combination of lift with the approaching trough and an increase in mid-level moisture, anticipate a scenario where isolated to scattered showers try to develop across our western and central counties by mid-to-late this afternoon, and across our eastern counties this evening and early tonight. The airmass across our area is initially very dry, with dewpoints expected to only climb into the lower to mid 20s by mid-afternoon. South winds will increase across our area today, as surface pressure gradient tightens and lee trough develops to our west. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from around 60 along the I-10 corridor, to the the lower to mid 60s across the rest of our area. With south winds continuing tonight, temperatures will be milder and lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s.
Water vapor imagery this morning showing a well amplified upper ridge in control over the CONUS. Meanwhile, upstream longwave trof was coming ashore over the west coast with hefty Pacific moisture spreading across the wrn CONUS. an area of low pressure was centered over sern Canada with a trof extending sewd into the wrn Dakotas.
So have populated today's dewpoints very much on the low side of the range of model forecasts today, close to the ECMWF.
Mixed temperatures to 900/850mb run between upper 40s and 60s - so will go with WModel which is the higher end. A weak low pressure system is still expected to develop across north central South Dakota and lift across North Dakota, with maybe only a brief period of saturation but negligible lift within the column. This feature will result in mixing, with a cold front crossing the area in the morning hours. Will stick with blended guidance for highs in the low/mid 40s.
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level ridging over the northern Rockies and a downstream trough over the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic states. closer to approaching warm front.