Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1054 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 (This evening through Friday) Dry weather will continue across the area the next 24 hours, with another cold front moving through tomorrow. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow the front, along with breezy north winds. Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s, with highs Friday ranging from the mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s over southern sections.
A dry cold front will move across the area tonight bringing a wind shift from the nw. This will result in a light return flow by this afternoon that won't last long before a dry reinforcing cold front moves through our CWA tonight. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. This cold front will bring cooler and drier air that will allow temperatures to bottom out below normal and range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Once the fog dissipates this morning, enough insolation is expected to allow temperatures to top out close to normal and range from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.
High pressure will continue to build over South Texas in wake of the front through Saturday, leading to dry conditions, offshore flow, and mostly clear skies.
Starting to see an increase in southerly surface winds across parts of eastern Arkansas as a reinforcing cold front approaches. Temps this morning range from the mid and upper 30s along eastern sections near the TN River to the lower 40s over the Delta. A reinforcing cold front will push across the area today.
Warm dry weather will prevail across northwest California through the weekend due to persistent upper level ridging.
Will leave the high wind warning as is. Not quite as low as yesterday due in part to much cooler temperatures, but the winds could spread a fire and will mention near critical fire weather in the HWO for this afternoon. Have a little concern with the lows for tonight. Saturday night another upper level wave moves through the area along with a cold front.
A cold front will arrive by mid-morning. (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is making steady progress southward across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this morning, and will move into Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin close to daybreak. Cold advection in the wake of the front will also yield cooler, below normal temperatures this afternoon, especially for areas north of I-10 where the front will pass prior to peak heating. Across these areas, highs in the lower to middle 60s can be expected, with lower to middle 70s further south, and 80s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
As snow transitions to rain, some periods of freezing rain may occur, especially across northwest Montana including the Swan and Blackfoot Valleys. On Friday evening and into Friday night, westerly flow is pinched between a broad trough of low pressure to our north and a large closed high pressure system to our southwest, creating a strong jet streak aloft.
The expectation is for these winds to diminish by noon or so as the overall gradient finally begins to slacken as the large trough over the midwest translates eastward. Afternoon highs will recover into the low 50s near CYS with mid and upper 40s expected elsewhere in the lower terrain - right around average for early November. Given the downslope flow in this high-wind regime on Saturday, expect temperatures to run around 10 or more degrees warmer than Friday for all locations east of the Laramie range.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the back side of a deep 500 mb trough that will gradually move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
This will result in a light return flow by this afternoon that won't last long before a dry reinforcing cold front moves through our CWA tonight. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. This cold front will bring cooler and drier air that will allow temperatures to bottom out below normal and range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Once the fog dissipates this morning, enough insolation is expected to allow temperatures to top out close to normal and range from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.
Dry and mild weather conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend with high pressure aloft.
Today through Saturday afternoon Ridging will be building into Nevada today through Saturday.
440 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 Mean layer ridging centered near Hispaniola is struggling to maintain real estate as a long wave trough over the CONUS and northern Mexico pivots to the southeast. Meanwhile, the southern flank of the long wave trough will remain over Mexico. As heights rise over the Plains, an anticyclone will tighten up over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The aforementioned system moves into Hudson Bay tonight, allowing high pressure to build across the Northland, ending the precipitation. A potent short wave trof accompanies this low and spreads some light snow into the western half of the forecast area.
Latest radar and satellite trends show the pre-frontal trough has made it through at least Melbourne, with dry conditions north to the north, and all of the deep moisture/convective activity to the south. Then, as the frontal trough shifts south, conditions slowly dry out from north to south until most of the shower/storm activity is pushed south/east of Martin County by this evening. Temperatures should rise into the low 80s areawide.
538 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (Today and tonight) West Central Texas will see another relatively cool day, and just slightly cooler than normal. A cold front currently moving south through the Texas Panhandle region will move south through our area today, making it into the Interstate 10 corridor by mid to late afternoon. The combination of light winds, dry air, and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s nearly area-wide, with some of our valley areas and other low- lying locations possibly hitting freezing temperatures.
As this system pushes on shore, the upper level ridge that moved over us a few days ago will move eastward and break down, allowing zonal flow (west to east) to take control of the weather.
614 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 [Through 12Z Saturday] Cold front has pushed through the forecast area with patchy fog bringing localized MVFR/IFR conditions this morning. A cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area this morning looking at regional obs and by daybreak it should be clear of most of the area. The northerly flow behind the front will quickly weaken later this evening as a strong upper level trough approaches from the west and weak southerly flow develops.
Northeast winds will gust up to 25 kt over eastern NM behind a back door cold front thru 19Z.
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the weekend. A cold front will bring a much colder airmass into the Beehive State midweek.
Not much change expected in the overall pattern through the weekend as the anomalously strong ridge remains over the area.
Only issue thereafter will be cold front moving through the forecast area this evening.
Light winds this morning will shift to the north and veer northeast as a cold front moves through the region, first expected at HOB around 14-15Z and progressing quickly south to FST by 18Z. (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is making steady progress southward across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this morning, and will move into Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin close to daybreak. Cold advection in the wake of the front will also yield cooler, below normal temperatures this afternoon, especially for areas north of I-10 where the front will pass prior to peak heating. Across these areas, highs in the lower to middle 60s can be expected, with lower to middle 70s further south, and 80s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
524 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The forecast area was sandwiched between an area of rain showers associated with a mid-level baroclinic zone across southern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and light snow showers in Iowa associated with the parent upper low early this morning. Cloud cover will increase this morning from north to south as stratus deck moves in on the backside of the the low, though we could see some of this erode by late morning through early afternoon.
/issued 333 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the back side of a deep 500 mb trough that will gradually move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
207 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Winds in far SE MT continue to gust up to 40 mph, but should weaken considerable throughout this morning at the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure builds into the area. Pressure gradient tightens over the Beartooths as high pressure builds in the park and lee-side low pressure moves southward into the state tonight. As a cold front moves across our area, the rest of southern and eastern MT will see winds gusting 40-50 mph throughout the day.
This will increase rain chances over northern/central Arkansas today,with the highest precip coverage over the north. Clouds will clear out tonight, with winds diminishing as high pressure moves in on northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will be colder, with mins bottoming out in the mid 20s northwest to close to freezing in the central portions. Southeast Arkansas may stay above freezing, but will likely see temps in the mid 30s by sunrise. The high will move through the region Saturday and Saturday Night. Highs Saturday will likely remain in the 50s across the area, with some of the higher elevations potentially staying in the 40s.
338 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The forecast area was sandwiched between an area of rain showers associated with a mid-level baroclinic zone across southern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and light snow showers in Iowa associated with the parent upper low early this morning. Cloud cover will increase this morning from north to south as stratus deck moves in on the backside of the the low, though we could see some of this erode by late morning through early afternoon.
327 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Cooler air will invade southwestern Kansas today on the back side of an amplifying upper level trough.
Light offshore flow will prevail before a reinforcing surge of high pressure comes through South Texas around midnight. High pressure will continue to build over South Texas in wake of the front through Saturday, leading to dry conditions, offshore flow, and mostly clear skies.
534 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 For the 12Z TAFs, the latest cold front has moved well south of the TAF sites with north winds in its wake.
Extremely dry conditions will persist tonight into Saturday as a northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while lower level northwest downslope winds reinforce a dry air mass already stretched throughout the high plains of western Kansas. Developing lee side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado will deepen during the day Saturday, bringing about a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas by early afternoon. This will draw much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from just above 10C in central Kansas to near 15C near and along the Colorado border. Under mostly sunny skies, should see afternoon highs well up into the 60s(F) in central and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower 70s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.
1140 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (Today and tonight) West Central Texas will see another relatively cool day, and just slightly cooler than normal. A cold front currently moving south through the Texas Panhandle region will move south through our area today, making it into the Interstate 10 corridor by mid to late afternoon. The combination of light winds, dry air, and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s nearly area-wide, with some of our valley areas and other low- lying locations possibly hitting freezing temperatures.
Tonight and Saturday Convective snow, rain and graupel showers will diminish this evening as the upper low moves east and surface heating decreases. Lows tonight will be close to normal with high Saturday about 5 degrees cooler than usual.
A fairly sharp 500 MB trough axis will swing through the area tonight, bringing light precip mainly after midnight. As temps cool overnight tonight, precip over the higher elevations will probably switch to light snow.
(This evening through Saturday) A very dry air mass has overspread the southern Plains behind a cold front. A Pacific cold front will move across the northern half of Oklahoma overnight Saturday.
225 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The northeastern half of the forecast area has seen pretty widespread cloud cover and even a few flurries on the backside of a deep low pressure system to our northeast. Skies will gradually start to clear late this afternoon and evening, and the strong northwest winds are also on the decrease as the upper low pushes eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will be noticably warmer as south winds return and upper level ridging moves overhead. Fortunately, it appears that we will avoid any wintry impacts with surface temperatures above freezing and most of the precipitation expected to fall as rain.
252 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 A potent vort max rounding the base of a positively tilted trough is resulting in a band of light rain across west Tennessee, east Central Arkansas and approaching west Mississippi. A cold front is moving into Middle Tennessee and approaching the Alabama State line. Current temperatures range from the mid 50s in northeast Arkansas to the low 60s where its still sunny in northeast Mississippi.
An occluding low pressure system north of the Great Lakes looks to begin to re-organize with the support of vorticity advection, and as a consequence, a secondary cold front will develop and undergo frontogenesis courtesy of the polar jet stream. This will provide widespread precipitation chance most favorably for early Saturday, with the chance for rain to transition to snow coincident with a surface temperature drop to near and just below freezing. After cold frontal passage, lake enhancement with jet support will result in scattered showers of mixed precipitation near and north of I-80 for the remainder of Saturday. Overall accumulation looks minimal, and near or just less than an inch for the coldest locations, and in the ridges.
No travel impacts are expected as temperatures remain well above freezing this afternoon. The region remains under the influence of the sizable, lumbering, 500mb trough centered over the Great Lakes. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the mid 20s for most, with minimum wind chill values Saturday morning approaching the low 20s and upper teens.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A broad, upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and an upper ridge is over the southwest part of the country. A cold front with gusty north to northeast winds is pushing through West Texas. Temperatures may reach freezing across isolated parts of Culberson and Eddy Counties which have not had a freeze so far this season. More widespread freezing will likely occur across northern portions of Lea County and parts of the northern Permian Basin which have already experienced a freeze this season.
128 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 Mostly sunny and dry weather this afternoon behind the cold front.
Radar trends show the convection shifting north-northeast of the Lower and Middle Keys this morning, with the most vigorous activity remaining over the Straits of Florida. Boaters across the Florida Keys should expect less clearance under fixed bridges during high tide.
(This evening through Saturday) Mild and breezy conditions will remain over the area through this evening in the wake of the cold front that passed through the areas earlier today.
Another small pocket of wave clouds can be seen over Central TX where a secondary cold front is expected to arrives into the AUS vcnty by around 20Z. The front will likely further reduce the moisture in the low levels, and clear skies should resume for all areas tonight and Saturday. A few northerly wind gusts up to 20 knots are possible in the late afternoon/early evening, but we expect the higher wind gusts to remain north of South Central TX. The short term will be quiet as a reinforcing shot of high pressure later today leads to a cooler and dry Saturday. These westerlies will actually help warm temperatures ahead of the next reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air.
Rain has exited Tennessee with cold front now far to the east. The low cloud deck will break in next couple hours.
Mid-level trough axis extending south from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast through Sat shifts east and starts to weaken Sat night. The trough helps drive a dry cold front into the area later Sat, followed by a healthy dose of cold air Sat night. Lows tonight will be cooler than last night, low level flow promotes neutral advection. Some weak warm advection Sat ahead of the dry cold front combined with mostly clear skies will result in highs above climo. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of today's highs despite starting out 15 degrees or more cooler.
A brief period of low clouds could occur late tonight ahead of another cold front at ECP and TLH, but confidence is not high enough to include any restrictions at this time. A cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area this morning looking at regional obs and by daybreak it should be clear of most of the area. The northerly flow behind the front will quickly weaken later this evening as a strong upper level trough approaches from the west and weak southerly flow develops.
with deep low over the western Great Lakes and lee trof/warm front along the Rockies. Warm front shifts east tonight, with non-diurnal temperature trend across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills.
The center of the large upper closed low pressure system over northeast Wisconsin will lift north-northeastward into Canada, while the associated upper trough amplifies over the eastern CONUS through tonight. This trough will then pivot northeastward on Saturday, leaving a deep northwesterly flow over the region. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler compared to today and range from 55 to 60 degrees northwest of I-65, and from 60 to 65 degrees to the southeast. Light winds will turn southerly to southwesterly this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the north.
The rest of today: Following the morning episode of weather, a trough and cold front will move into the area. Between the cloud cover and the frontal passage, the northern CWA should see temperatures top out in the mid 40s today, while the southern CWA is forecast to see highs in the low to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures continue into Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
148 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Partly cloudy skies in place this afternoon with temperatures generally in the lower 60s. For that reason, measurable pops will remain on the low side. Turning cooler on Saturday with highs mid 40s to lower 50s.
1159 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 A weak ridge of high pressure will slide east across the state this afternoon accompanied by mostly sunny conditions. A compact but rather vigorous upper mid and upper level trough will impact our weather late tonight through the midday hours Saturday with thickening clouds and a few periods of rain and west snow showers.
Temperatures at most locations will fall below freezing across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is making steady progress southward across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this morning, and will move into Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin close to daybreak. Cold advection in the wake of the front will also yield cooler, below normal temperatures this afternoon, especially for areas north of I-10 where the front will pass prior to peak heating. Across these areas, highs in the lower to middle 60s can be expected, with lower to middle 70s further south, and 80s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure remains anchored in the Upper Midwest. Cooler air will invade southwestern Kansas today on the back side of an amplifying upper level trough.
Evaporative cooling due to the dry air in the low levels was causing a local and temporary drop in the temperature, changing the precipitation type to sleet or snow.
A potent vort max rounding the base of a positively tilted trough is resulting in a band of light rain across far northwest Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas. Current temperatures range from the mid 40s in northeast Arkansas to the low 60s where its sunny in northeast Mississippi. Starting to see an increase in southerly surface winds across parts of eastern Arkansas as a reinforcing cold front approaches. Temps this morning range from the mid and upper 30s along eastern sections near the TN River to the lower 40s over the Delta. A reinforcing cold front will push across the area today.
(This evening through Saturday) A cold front has worked well south and east of the forecast area this afternoon with gusty west-northwest winds following in its wake. High pressure will prevail at the surface on Saturday with below normal temperatures anticipated despite mostly sunny skies.
Light accumulations of snow only over the highest elevations.
A small ridge was along the ND/MT border and into far western SD.
236 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 AT 2 pm CST, the cold front that swept through the forecast area this morning was moving on into South Texas. Lows should drop near or slightly below freezing across most of the Caprock and down into the 20s across some of the sandy drainages of the northwest South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. The outskirts of Lubbock should be on the cusp of freezing temps with the forecast low for the airport of 33F. Some valley areas across Hall and Childress Counties may also flirt with freezing temperatures.
Cooler and drier air in the wake of yesterdays front continues to filter into the area. High pressure dominates and the skies are mostly clear across the area. This will result in a light return flow by this afternoon that won't last long before a dry reinforcing cold front moves through our CWA tonight. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. This cold front will bring cooler and drier air that will allow temperatures to bottom out below normal and range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Once the fog dissipates this morning, enough insolation is expected to allow temperatures to top out close to normal and range from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.
We didn't see too big of a temp change with the cold front that pushed through yesterday, however a secondary front is upstream and will pack a punch. The front is currently crossing the lower MS Valley and will push SE into the TN Valley this evening/tonight. Overnight lows will reach the lower 30s in the typical colder spots, and into the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. This weekend, the stout system in the Great Lakes will lift northeast and high pressure will build into the region. The gradient behind the previously mentioned cold front will allow for breezy conditions tomorrow, with northwest winds filtering in that cooler, drier air.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail tonight over most of the area with a drier airmass behind the recent cold frontal passage. However, a secondary cold front will approach late tonight with a slight chance of showers along the coast and perhaps some thunderstorms offshore. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 60s across the northwest portions of the area to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front across the southeast big bend.