Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, cyclonic flow in the mid levels will transition to a flat ridge during this time. A mid/upper trof will pass by today, creating an interval of high cloudiness/filtered sunshine mainly for western KY, southeastern MO and adjacent parts of southern IL. Highs Thu are forecast to be in the lower 90s, but the forecast dewpoints should not be high enough to cause heat indices to increase out of the middle 90s.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week. Although today will be warmer than yesterday, temperatures are expected to remain below normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, with mid 60s to 70s across the higher elevations. High pressure with dry conditions and increasingly warm temperatures.
114 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
A broad upper level trough will bring some scattered to broken high clouds with no aviation impacts. The skies will mostly clear out this afternoon and evening with the lower moisture levels in the atmosphere.
High pressure will be over the OH Valley through this period, with a weak inverted trough extending from AL through N GA to the TN/NC border. Model soundings show greater low level moisture and cloud cover near the inverted trough axis, with some models producing afternoon convection in SW NC.
/22/ A surface cold front remains draped across the area this evening. A surface cold front has pushed through much of the area today, but the most significant drying is taking place well behind the front, just north of the forecast area.
Trough of low pressure across western South Dakota to near Casper on surface analysis. ridge of high pressure lays across Utah. with ridge axis extending northwest into Washington State in Vancouver BC. a low pressure system moving towards the PACNW. This low expected to bring us the gusty winds Wednesday. Ridge slowly shifts east for Tuesday with warming 700mb temperatures. Look for warmer temperatures Tuesday. roughly 5-6 degrees warmer than today's highs. upper ridge axis overhead. shifting east as upper low moves into western Washington State. With ridge axis shifting east. Upper low forecast to be in northern Montana/southern Alberta.
By tomorrow, northwesterly flow aloft that brought us the pleasant weather will be replaced by a building H5 ridge, with weak southerly winds ushering gulf moisture back northward.
1036 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 At the surface, low pressure sits over southeastern Wyoming, high pressure to our east. Upper level ridge sits over the western CONUS today. Tuesday/Wednesday the ridge will slide over the Rockies, bringing even higher temperatures over the forecast area. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with the Black Hills seeing highs in the low to mid 80s, while northeastern Wyoming and the western South Dakota plains regions will see highs in the 90s to low 100s.
The weak cold front that pushed into north GA yesterday has stalled roughly along the I-20 corridor.
747 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Aviation - Showers and a few thunderstorms possible tonight, early Wednesday An upper low moving over Hudson Bay will swing a trough through the Great Lakes late tonight.
Northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as we remain between ridging across the western U. and troughing in the northeast. At the surface, high pressure extends across southern Kansas and Missouri while a weak area of low pressure/weak surface frontal boundary extends across southeastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota. This should push highs in northeast Nebraska into the low 90s with upper 80s common across the remainder of the CWA.
The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF are generally consistent in the continued development of this low, and the corresponding upper disturbance, and moving this system westward to over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight/Wednesday. Anticipate scattered showers, yet only isolated thunderstorms given the low CAPE values predicted for the afternoon (NAM deterministic.
A broad upper level trough will bring some scattered to broken high clouds with no aviation impacts. High pressure will be over the OH Valley through this period, with a weak inverted trough extending from AL through N GA to the TN/NC border. Model soundings show greater low level moisture and cloud cover near the inverted trough axis, with some models producing afternoon convection in SW NC.
Current forecast shows better rain chances over the coastal waters up into south central Louisiana and the lower Atchafalaya Basin.
Surface analysis reveals broad high pressure sprawled across much of the Ohio Valley and Midwest this morning. Low level thickness (1000-850mb) values will be pretty similar today compared to yesterday, so with the added upper level cloud cover, high temps might end up being a degree or so cooler today.
The lower troposphere is dry-ish, with mean dewpoint depressions 5-8 degC. A deep mid-upper level low centered near the Cay Sal Bank continues to drive dry and relatively stable air through the Keys, although the low's movement to the west over the next 24-hours may change things. Visible satellite imagery corroborates CIMMS placement of a weak undulation in the easterlies over the Bahamas, on the eastern flank of the upper low.
647 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
This evening, the short wave trough will weaken and move through the region. Surface analysis reveals broad high pressure sprawled across much of the Ohio Valley and Midwest this morning. Low level thickness (1000-850mb) values will be pretty similar today compared to yesterday, so with the added upper level cloud cover, high temps might end up being a degree or so cooler today.
Today an upper low moves over the northern Washington coast and a trough settles over southern Oregon, trending inland temperatures towards lower (but still above normal).
The forecast starts out with an upper ridge situated over the Inter Mountain West and a trough over the Great Lakes. The Central Plains will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper ridge moves east today. High temperatures will be warmer than the past several days, with widespread 90s expected. Wednesday, the upper ridge continues to move to the east, breaking down with the flow pattern over the Central Plains becoming west- southwesterly.
Band of mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to work acrs the north half of the FA this mrng, assocd with an upper trof. NW flow aloft wl bring a mid lvl trof acrs the FA today, accompanied by a band of mid and high lvl clouds. Highs wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
957 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A secondary trough of low pressure moving across the region will keep a few showers around through this morning, but drying conditions with clearing skies are expected by this afternoon.
An upper level ridge in the Desert Southwest will continue to sit across the area through the short term.
Significantly cooler temperatures today throughout the region as cool, moist marine air moves in. Unsettled weather today into Wednesday as an upper level low tracks through the area.
Looking to the upper levels of the atmosphere, seeing the leading edge of an incoming trough over the Pacific NW. This push of cooler air from aloft will start a cooling trend at the surface, bringing needed relief to regions in the interior.
Longwave troughing will persist over the North Pacific and West Coast through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. An upper trough will approach the PacNW on Fri and winds will trend downward, primarily north of Cape Mendocino.
1007 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
Quiet conditions with slightly warmer temperatures than compared to 24hrs ago were found early this morning. Latest CAMs and the 00z HREF continue to show a signal for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over northeast IA late this afternoon and early evening along a cold front and track southeast into the highway 20 corridor. However, I have some concerns with the dry sub-cloud layer as shown on the 00z DVN sounding and the models overdoing the low level moisture today.
Expect another hot one across the Northern Rockies today, albeit a degree or two cooler in many locations, as a Pacific trough exerts its influence on the high pressure. These storms will be isolated and may not stray off the higher terrain. Shower activity will be shifted north along the Canadian border as a low pressure system transits southern Canada.
Given the mix of air masses that is still evident along/near the boundary with sfc dew points in the low/mid 60s, instability is not expeced to be very robust today, but will increase on subsequent days.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today, especially in the lower elevations.
615 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
This is associated with the tail end of upper level trof that extends NE into NM. This high will drift east today across far northern AZ with light E-NE steering flow pushing storms to the W-SW.
We'll get a slight break in the heat beginning this afternoon as an area of low pressure swings into the Pacific Northwest - aiding in mid-level height falls and subsequently a "less hot" airmass. Highs should be 4-5 degrees cooler today and the additional wind which is about to be discussed will help it to feel a little bit better. The aforementioned trough will usher in breezy conditions this afternoon. Looks like a pleasant way to wrap up June and begin July! Cluster analysis appears in good agreement of both the timing and general amplitude of a deepening trough approaching the area as we head into the weekend. This trough will have very little in the way of moisture to work with, with deterministic model runs showing meager PWATs of only 0.
A thick cloud deck has developed across our southern counties, which is affecting the diurnal temperature curve (keeping it cooler) down there. Shouldn't be around all day, so eventual afternoon highs shouldn't be greatly affected, but it'll help those under the cloud cover experience an even greater day with the cooler temperatures and dry air. No PoPs today and only low chances across the south tomorrow afternoon, though it will be a few degrees warmer. By tomorrow, northwesterly flow aloft that brought us the pleasant weather will be replaced by a building H5 ridge, with weak southerly winds ushering gulf moisture back northward.
539 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across central South Dakota. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts east today then breaks down Wednesday as trof slides across the northern Rockies. then warm back up over the weekend as ridge builds back.
644 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
642 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 An upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will extend north over the Rockies into the western Canadian Provinces. This will bring a warmer airmass into the area today. A weak warm front will extend east across the central Sandhills today with light southerly winds near I80 and light northerly and easterly winds across north central NE. Tonight, the warm front will lift north into South Dakota. A disturbance and prefrontal trough will approach western portions of the area during the afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the northwest Sandhills. The prefrontal trough and passing disturbance will bring up to a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern half of the forecast area during the evening, which should dissipate by midnight.
An upper trough will move eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas on Wednesday and interact with the stalled frontal boundary and abundant atmospheric moisture to provide scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
529 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Upper ridge will shift across the state today for continued warm conditions. With an upper low off the Pacific Northwest moving onshore, increasing southwest flow will induce weak lee cyclogenesis and thunderstorm development over the mountains of south central Montana.
The Southwest Monsoon has kicked in and is pumping mid and high level moisture into the Northern Rockies under the ridge. Today a trough is digging into the northwest, and will collide with the ridge and monsoon moisture over the area and trigger convection. Tomorrow a trough will be draped across western Montana causing some windy conditions, with afternoon wind speeds around 20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph. Troughing, or zonal flow, will continue through the rest of the week. Temperatures will remain in the 80s across western Montana and in the mid 90s through the lower elevations of central Idaho.
Shifting high pressure will start to introduce isolated shower and storm chances primarily along the BLue Ridge tomorrow and parts of NC. That said, we should run warmer tonight than last night. The shifting high, combined with a weak mid level disturbance, should provide some isolated shower and storm chances along the Blue Ridge and near the NC/VA state line. Temperatures should be ever slightly warmer.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is centered over the southwestern part of the country. The upper ridge becomes centered over the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
An upper level ridge begins to creep into the Ohio River valley region. This will bring the high temperatures up a bit into the upper-80s.
Heat will continue in the deserts into tomorrow, with cooler conditions expected west of the mountains.
Temperatures at 2pm remain in the upper 70s at Corning, AR and Malden, MO with expected highs in the low to middle 80s. A weak broad ridge will continue to shift over the region through the work week resulting in slightly warmer temperatures.
Weak upper trough axis moves through during the day. Minimal severe threat, but with the high pw content, heavy rainfall will be the main issue in any of the slower moving showers or storms.
Models continue to show the upper level ridge to the west building into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Warming trend starts on Wednesday with afternoon highs climbing a few more degrees into the low to mid 90s.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 70 88 71 / 20 30 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 69 91 70 / 10 30 0 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 90 68 91 69 / 10 20 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 62 91 66 / 10 10 0 20 10.
1158 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across central South Dakota. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts east today then breaks down Wednesday as trof slides across the northern Rockies. then warm back up over the weekend as ridge builds back.
Here current temperatures remain in the low to middle 70s with upper 70s to low 80s across the remainder of the Midsouth.
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will keep moist air from the south from advecting into the region this afternoon and into tonight. This will keep dew points low so relative humidities will be low for Wednesday when the temperature is expected to be several degrees warmer than today. The SPC has the entire CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday as a cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon/evening providing a boundary for some potential storms. Storms are expected to initially fire out ahead of the low along a warm front Wednesday afternoon for which model timing differs. There may be a break in the axis of the low but more storms are expected to fire along and behind the cold front late Wednesday evening.
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through tonight. A cold front moves across Michigan and Ontario tomorrow but remains just north of the local area.
Warmer temperatures are expected the rest of the week.
Given the mix of air masses that is still evident along/near the boundary with sfc dew points in the low/mid 60s, instability is not expected to be very robust today, but will increase on subsequent days.
Upper ridge axis was over the western part of the area early this afternoon and the axis will shift E to the Dakotas/MT border by 12Z Wednesday. Warm front over the eastern zones will push E out of the area during the evening and a cold front will follow for the overnight hours with a wind shift to the W. The energy will drive a cold front S through the region bringing breezy conditions along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
While a few low clouds may be present with the high clouds through early parts of the day, we are generally expecting skies to continue clearing out. Starting off this morning, latest satellite and observation trends are showing a broad area of convergence along a low amplitude positive tilted trough moving south-southeast across the Texas Panhandle.
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Dry conditions continue through majority of the work week under high pressure.
Beneath the ridge and ahead of the wrn trof, widespread convection has developed over higher elevations from the Four Corners region nwd into MT. Near the sfc, high pressure is in place from the nrn Dakotas into srn SK/MB, with a trof extending along and just east of the nrn Rockies. Modest pressure falls have been observed over much of the nrn Rockies and Plains regions this aftn, indicating that the trof continues to strengthen. Low-level trof continues to strengthen and shifts ewd tonight, supporting the development of a S/SW-oriented LLJ and commencement of low-level theta-E advection. Trof currently over the nwrn CONUS will approach the area tomorrow, weakening as it does so, bringing modest height falls and DPVA. Meanwhile, cooler midlevel temperatures atop a low-level thermal ridge will facilitate steepening midlevel lapse rates.
352 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure building eastward from western New York will provide for a quiet night across the North Country, with diminishing winds and clearing skies. Temperatures will also trend a bit warmer with developing south to southwest winds on Wednesday.
/Issued 1114 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022/ Satellite and marine observations this morning show a broad area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure is associated with rich tropical moisture with satellite derived PWAT over the northwestern Gulf over 2 inches. The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF are generally consistent in the continued development of this low, and the corresponding upper disturbance, and moving this system westward to over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight/Wednesday. Anticipate scattered showers, yet only isolated thunderstorms given the low CAPE values predicted for the afternoon (NAM deterministic.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend.
Ridging from out of the east will continue to hold the frontal boundary in a stationary position off to the north, with a weak steering flow persisting for the forecast area. High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s for locations closer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline.
Overall precipitation amounts remain light and expect to see light showers continue to move inland throughout the day as an upper level low moves into Vancouver Island. Significantly cooler temperatures today throughout the region as cool, moist marine air moves in. Unsettled weather today into Wednesday as an upper level low tracks through the area.
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Today is shaping up to be another beautiful summer day as high pressure centered over southern Indiana dominates the area. Overnight, a ridge/valley split will develop with valleys dropping into the mid 50s while ridge stay closer to 60. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as an upper level ridge axis moves over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and allows for clearing over the area. Wednesday night will again be similar to Tuesday night as a ridge/valleys split develops with valleys in the low to mid 50s, ridges in the low 60s, and fog developing along the river valleys.
329 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
A weak upper trough sliding off the Mid- Atlantic states leaves behind a stagnant frontal boundary over the region to start the near term.
410 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure builds in from the south with a warming trend expected through the week as ridging builds across the Northeast.
This seems highly plausible given that moist transport vectors will be the longest and oriented parallel to the low level front around the 06Z timeframe.
1114 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Satellite and marine observations this morning show a broad area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure is associated with rich tropical moisture with satellite derived PWAT over the northwestern Gulf over 2 inches. The deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF are generally consistent in the continued development of this low, and the corresponding upper disturbance, and moving this system westward to over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight/Wednesday. Anticipate scattered showers, yet only isolated thunderstorms given the low CAPE values predicted for the afternoon (NAM deterministic.
Upper ridge begins to build back east with some warming in the lower levels.
A cold front will move across the area today bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with more cooling on Wed. Isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will form generally east of our area over the central ID mountains this afternoon.
Afternoon highs are peaking in the lower to middle 90's across the area. Lows tonight will dip into the lower to middle 70's with upper 70's along the coast.
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 An upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will extend north over the Rockies into the western Canadian Provinces. This will bring a warmer airmass into the area today. A weak warm front will extend east across the central Sandhills today with light southerly winds near I80 and light northerly and easterly winds across north central NE. Tonight, the warm front will lift north into South Dakota. A disturbance and prefrontal trough will approach western portions of the area during the afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the northwest Sandhills. The prefrontal trough and passing disturbance will bring up to a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern half of the forecast area during the evening, which should dissipate by midnight.
Tomorrow, the flow begins to turn more southerly as high pressure starts to develop offshore of the Carolinas. The higher moisture content will stay confined to areas along and south of I-40. However, the highest chance of POPs will be across southwest NC with high-end chance.
Nonetheless, we remain on the easterly side of a tropical low/inverted trough which is situated over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a stalled frontal boundary generally parallel to I-20. With a tropical airmass in place, opportunities exist most periods for rainfall as impulses rotate within a weak and messy upper level ridge.
Analysis charts show a weak trough near the Bahamas, as well as a frontal boundary draped across the Southeast as high pressure slowly builds over the western Atlantic. Therefore, the highest chances for showers and lightning storms remains over the interior with the greatest forcing towards the west coast of Florida. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to-mid 70s.