Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough over the region continues to support a well-defined marine layer of around 2,500 feet in depth. The marine layer is forecast to compress slightly tonight as the mid/upper level trough exits and high pressure begins to build over the region. As the high pressure builds aloft, a modest warming trend is expected on Friday with temperatures likely to warm to near seasonal averages.
High pressure aloft will move over the state for Fri.
1029 PM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Currently - A weak surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Straits and Cuba resulting in light winds across the Keys and surrounding waters. As a result, a line of very slow moving showers and a few thunderstorms stretched from the Lower Keys, through our gulf and bay side waters and into the far Upper Keys. Short Term Update - Weak ridging will hold across the Florida Straits through the overnight period, keeping winds light and primarily west to northwest across the Keys. Forecast soundings suggest the lower level dry air and weak inhibition will also remain. A ridge across the Florida Straits will remain overnight.
648 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Summary: A slow-moving low pressure system will bring widespread rain across the area through tonight and into tomorrow. Much needed rainfall remains in the forecast this weekend as a cold front propagates across the area.
423 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Summary: A slow-moving low pressure system will bring widespread rain across the area through tonight and into tomorrow. Much needed rainfall remains in the forecast this weekend as a cold front propagates across the area.
Temperatures will remain steady in the low to mid 60s.
357 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight.
5 inch range as 500 mb high pressure reasserts itself. For the entire short term forecast period, well above normal temperatures are anticipated due to the proximity of the mid-level ridge.
Some of our coolest locations have already fallen below 60 degrees this morning with most of the Midsouth in the low to middle 60s. A 593dm ridge centered over Arkansas will keep us dry today and Saturday. Tomorrow night the ridge will sink south along the Gulf Coast. A weak cold front associated with a northern stream broad trough over the Great lakes into Missouri will approach northeastern Arkansas, southern Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures tonight will be moderated by the dense cloud cover, leaving most of the area in the low 60s. Will hold onto PoPs through noon Saturday though, as a few showers/storms cannot be ruled our prior to cold frontal passage. Compared to previous guidance, the cold front is now progged to come through the area earlier in the day.
342 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 The Florida peninsula remains under the influence of a weak trough axis.
Cooler and cloudy weather is expected for Friday. SATURDAY: The mid-lvl trough axis will clear the area by mid-day Saturday, but lingering moisture and weak lift may support a few sprinkles through Saturday morning, otherwise, sunshine should return in the afternoon and warm temperatures into the lower 70s.
High pressure will continue to build southeast through Saturday.
We still have quite a bit of dry air through the mid-levels and a fairly stout upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Weak low pressure drops southeast tonight, and a westerly 20-25 kt LLJ develops over Missouri and southern IL.
337 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure to our north will keep sunshine and less humid air in the forecast through Saturday.
345 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Scattered light showers are possible today west of I-57, but the heavier rainfall arrives overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Model soundings continue to suggest that the lower troposphere will be slow to saturate today. A 30 kt LLJ will veer into central Illinois ahead of the cold front, providing the needed low-level moisture, instability, and lift to support widespread showers with some embedded thunder. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across the region.
A broad high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes is leading to dry northeasterly winds across the Tennessee Valley this evening. Mostly clear skies prevail while upper level ridging begins to build into the Southeast.
/issued 342 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ The Florida peninsula remains under the influence of a weak trough axis.
Therefore, thunderstorms are expected over portions of Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of West Texas. An upper level trough over the Northern Rockies will progress eastward over the High Plains flattening the upper level ridge over TX/OK. However, the upper level ridge is going remain "somewhat" over the area supporting warm temperatures and subsidence for the eastern portions of the CWA.
1248 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Summary: A slow-moving low pressure system will bring widespread rain across the area through tonight and into tomorrow. Much needed rainfall remains in the forecast this weekend as a cold front propagates across the area.
Otherwise, an upper level high pressure area centered over eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas late this evening, with a a ridge extending eastward across Mississippi, will continue to expanding eastward over the entire southeast CONUS through Saturday. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday once again warming into the lower 90s for most of the area. Lows Friday night again mainly in the low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory may be required where the higher dewpoints setup, but the exact location is still uncertain at this time so will pass this along to future shifts.
To begin, an upper ridge centered over Arkansas will bring another quiet weather day to the region. On Saturday, an approaching upper level trough will move towards the state. While this happens, the upper ridge centered over the state will flatten and move southward. Near the Great Basin, ridging will expand northward. At the surface, high pressure will move away from the region with return flow commencing today. Friday night, dry conditions will continue but overnight lows will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than observed this morning. On Saturday, southwest winds combined with compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front, should help temperatures sore into the mid/upper 90s, with a location or two possibly reaching 100 degree mark. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to continue into the overnight hours ahead of an advancing cold front.
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure builds in from the north through Saturday, then slides offshore Saturday night.
Synoptic models show a weak inverted trough moving east to west across much of Central Texas through the day today. Some hints of this weak disturbance can be seen on GOES-16 Channel 10 - the upper level water vapor imagery as the disturbance rotates around the southern periphery of the ridge of high pressure situated to the northeast of South Central Texas. As the inverted trough moves off to the west on Saturday a dry day is forecast areawide.
336 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry high pressure and below normal temperatures will continue across the region into the weekend.
A touch of fall will be in place today through Saturday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. As the high pressure slides east, look for the weak northerly flow to eventually turn to more of an easterly flow by the afternoon.
TWH Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward tonight into Friday and bring scattered showers to south central MT and numerous showers over southeast MT and north central WY. Friday night into Saturday night, upper ridging will build over the Northern Rockies, bringing dry and warmer weather. RMS High pressure will build over the four corners behind the trough on Friday.
1205 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Relatively cool and dry weather will persist through Saturday as high pressure builds in.
As the low level jet increases, storms will become more widespread in areas south of I-70 along the boundary.
254 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure is centered overhead today keeping conditions dry under mostly sunny skies.
Forecast soundings show a pretty decent dry wedge persisting in the lower atmosphere well into the morning, so timing of the PoP's have been pulled back a bit. High pressure ridge will slowly move to the east as the next weather system approaches the area from the west. Temps will be below normal as clouds and rain should keep afternoon highs cooler, reaching only into the middle to upper 70s. Temps through this period will remain cooler as well and am expecting Sat high temps to only be in the middle 70s.
254 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Another dry and pleasant day is in store for the mid state today as the upper high to our west continues moving eastward. The high will slowly work southeast, but begin to weaken going into the weekend and a Midwest trough will try and sneak in some rain chances as early as Saturday afternoon in the far northern zones.
Sites near water were in the lower 80s, with a few inland locations such as the backyard of the NWS office at 78 and Big Pine Key falling to 74 thus far. The pressure pattern locally was rather flat, generally along a very weak ridge axis. A deep trough was noted with axis offshore the Carolinas and extending southwest into north Florida and the far northeast Gulf of Mexico, while upper ridges were noted over the Bay of Campeche and broadly across the northwest Caribbean, split by a shear zone.
Scattered to broken mid/high clouds were spreading into the state, from the north, beneath upper level ridging which will continue into Friday. High pressure aloft will move over the state for Fri. Mid/upper ridging will park atop the Natural State by tomorrow into Saturday with daily max/min temps creeping back to above average. Upper troughing across the northern states will squash the ridge by the weekend with a new front approaching from the north.
- Holiday Weekend: Occasional Clouds and Light Rain Possible- Seasonal temperatures with lower humidity will continue into the holiday weekend as a broad upper trough slowly drifts east.
251 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 07Z upper air analysis indicates a broadening, mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Great Plains as a channel of tropical moisture from the northeastern Pacific continues to stream into the CWA. The ridging is expected to expand westward as the day progresses, resulting in a slight increase in geopotential heights compared to yesterday. Sincavage Precipitation chances will greatly increase this weekend stemming from a possible cold front in the region.
An upper ridge whose axis is currently over the upper Mid-West will flatten as it slides eastward across the Mid-West. Lower levels will meanwhile enjoy another day of Canadian high pressure as its center slides from the Great Lakes this evening to Ohio and eastward by late Friday. Light east-southeasterly breezes will bring another rather mild day across the CWA, albeit perhaps 1-2 degrees warmer for southern and western counties courtesy of the light return flow. An upper level trough will push a cold front through the area into Saturday night.
117 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure builds in through Friday, lingering through Saturday.
We should see more in the way of clearing on Saturday as high pressure builds into the area and we see decent subsidence on the backside of the upper trough.
Broader mid- upper cloud cover arrives tonight keeping lows slightly warmer (mid- upper 50s). Saturday will be a transition day for Lower Michigan as the flattened upper ridge departs and confluence aloft results in strengthened troughing at the base of a central Canadian upper low.
A weak upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward and out of the area by late Friday. The trough moving through the area will leave another day of cooler than normal temperatures on Friday. Northwest flow over the weekend with a building ridge will help to bring rebounding temperatures by Saturday, with temperature returning to near-normal levels.
Slightly drier air in the low levels should allow for mild low temperatures in the 50s for most locations.
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will keep dry weather and below normal temperatures in place today.
Highs will mainly be in the 80's again today before a warming trend starts on Saturday as upper ridging begins to build into the West.
Heading into the daytime, forcing will continue to translate further east, with the low level jet influence waning after daybreak. Drier air will filter in from the northwest as high pressure builds into the Plains on Saturday.
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Upper-level ridging remains over the Quad State today, though decreases in meridional extent. Dew points are expected to surge during the day tomorrow, approaching 70 just ahead of the cold front.
141 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will build into our area for tonight through Saturday with dry and less humid weather.
401 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure builds in from the north through Saturday, then slides offshore Saturday night.
Heavy rainfall will be likely tonight given the low level jet and ample atmospheric moisture levels. After the low level jet diminishes, the afternoon and evening should end up seeing the lowest precip coverage but we will still have some precip around. For Saturday night, the southern CWA will be the focus of greater shower and thunderstorm coverage and potential flooding as the low level jet interacts with the front.
306 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Today and Tonight: Drier air will continue to filter into our region from the north today, in the wake of a weak cold front passage. An anomalously strong - and warm - ridge aloft is centered over the Southern Plains and driving subsident, northerly flow across the region. Also, the lowering humidity should offset the warm temperatures and limit heat index values to below 100 degrees for most areas this afternoon (yay!). Given the high pressure around the region and lingering surface moisture, some patchy light fog is possible early this morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning.
350 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and Saturday.
453 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Ridging at all levels passing over the region from west to east will provide dry weather into Saturday, with clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level trough currently over the western CONUS will moves east and reach the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, with an associated surface cold front moving through the Midwest.
Global ensembles show strong agreement of an anomalously strong H5 ridge developing over the West Coast this weekend, with the ridge axis gradually shifting east through the week. This is in response to both a passing trough/front to the north and an upper level system across northern Mexico.
134 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry high pressure and below normal temperatures will continue across the region through Friday and into Saturday.
Surface anticyclone will slowly drift eastward through the period as midlevel ridge axis shifts to the eastern Great Lakes. Lows tonight expected to be very similar to last night but perhaps a degree or two warmer due to approaching high clouds. More formidable theta-e surge occurs late Fri night into Sat with approach of next midlevel trough. best moisture convergence remains locked along the Ohio River with fairly broad trough and weak QG ascent locally.
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Much cooler and drier high pressure will build into the region through Saturday.
The upper level ridge dominating our weather right now is centered from eastern Oklahoma to Arkansas. This ridge will drift slowly south into the lower Mississippi River valley, and remain in control of our weather here. For tonight, lows will again drop into the low to mid 70s, keeping conditions muggy.
An upper ridge was centered over the Southern Plains early this morning as an upper trough extended from northern Nevada through western Montana into a closed low over northern Manitoba, Canada. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the 700mb trough this afternoon and tonight.
/NF/ Tonight and tomorrow: Cooler and drier air filters into the region behind the front, resulting in more comfortable conditions across the region. Temperatures will only climb into the 80s in most locations on Friday with the Delta most likely in the lower 90s. With dewpoints only in the 60s, however, it should feel considerably cooler, with heat index values in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Highs Fri - mid/upper 70s Sat - mid 70s Sun - upper 70s/lower 80s Mon - lower/mid 80s Tue - lower 80s Wed - upper 70s/lower 80s Thu - upper 70s/lower 80s A cold front will continue to push through the area the next 12 hours with southerly winds shifting to north/northwest.
1102 PM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure builds in through Friday, lingering through Saturday.
Current mean troffing over the PacNW will gradually breakdown, and get replaced by mid-level ridging over the western CONUS.
This cold front is helping cool temperatures behind it to below 65 degrees in central Nebraska and is also bringing in some low stratus that'll likely keep today's high temperatures limited to the 70's.
High pressure aloft will be building in from the west through the short term. With the High pressure in place, there won't be much of a forcing mechanism for thunderstorms to develop besides the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes.
No changes are need to the forecast this evening as high pressure from the surface through the upper levels will remain firmly in control overnight. Clear skies are expected as cirrus rounding the ridge should stay to our west. VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes and OH Valley early this morning into PA and the Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 64 87 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 64 86 67 86 / 0 0 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 85 66 85 / 0 0 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 58 84 64 81 / 0 0 10 20 50.
1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A low pressure system currently over central South Dakota slides into central Iowa by Friday morning. This band of precipitation slowly spreads eastward across the forecast area between 00-12Z tonight and persists for much of the day on Friday as the low weakens and dives southeastward.
324 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry weather should continue through Saturday under high pressure.
This help to keep temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with a few sites reporting temperatures maxing out around 85 degrees. temps in the upper Rockies were rtpd in the low to mid 40s while over to the east in the New England states current temperatures are in the 50s and as you get down to the Gulf coast temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s. For today the the ridge will expand and center it's self over Louisiana and this will cut into the storm production today and into the weekend. Although afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler and a Heat Advisory is not anticipated at this time.
545 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Scattered light showers are possible today west of I-57, but the heavier rainfall arrives overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Model soundings continue to suggest that the lower troposphere will be slow to saturate today. A 30 kt LLJ will veer into central Illinois ahead of the cold front, providing the needed low-level moisture, instability, and lift to support widespread showers with some embedded thunder. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across the region.
630 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry high pressure and below normal temperatures will continue across the region into the weekend.
725 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure to our north will keep sunshine and less humid air in the forecast through Saturday.
At the surface, a cold front extends from far eastern Nebraska, into central KS and finally down to near KDDC. By 00z Sat, surface front is expected to be situated along or just south of the KS/OK border with the most widespread storms expected to be north of this feature as the low level jet increases early this evening. At the same time cold front will be situated south of the OK/KS border which will keep showers and storms south of the forecast area. The bigger story through these extended periods will be a fairly strong cold front to move through late Tue afternoon into Tue night which will bring below normal temps and a much drier airmass. Maybe possible to see widespread dewpoints in the low 50s to the upper 40s which we haven't seen in a while.
High confidence exists for a warming trend Friday through Labor Day Weekend as high pressure strengthens across the region.
The short wave trough that brought storms to the area last night and early this morning is moving over the plains states today. Clouds and showers this morning kept temperatures a little cooler over the far eastern sections of the forecast area, which has delayed the development of thunderstorms so far this afternoon. A cooler airmass sags south across the area by Friday with a the frontal boundary at its periphery remaining over the western and southern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures continue to cool into Saturday with the airmass pushing deeper into the high plains and the area of possible thunderstorm development also pushing further south. as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft over the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West are supplanted by an amplifying upper level ridge -- shunting the mid-latitude westerlies northward into the northern Rockies, Dakotas, and Upper Great Lakes.
714 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry weather will continue through Saturday under high pressure.
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight.
406 AM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Upper trough over the region is keeping showers and isolated thunderstorms going in parts of the west, central and south. The trough seems to pass around 03Z with the activity ending by 06Z.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: Drier air will continue to filter into our region from the north today, in the wake of a weak cold front passage. An anomalously strong - and warm - ridge aloft is centered over the Southern Plains and driving subsident, northerly flow across the region. Also, the lowering humidity should offset the warm temperatures and limit heat index values to below 100 degrees for most areas this afternoon (yay!). Given the high pressure around the region and lingering surface moisture, some patchy light fog is possible early this morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning.
512 AM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Upper trof will swing across the region today, keeping temperatures below normal for much of the area. Upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies behind the upper trof for warming temperatures through the weekend.
317 AM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A good chance for showers and thunderstorms today as low level southeasterly winds advect moisture into the area while an upper level trof drops in from the northwest. Best chances for precipitation will be east of Billings with the highest precipitation amounts forecast over SE Montana.
Expect a little more filtered sunshine than yesterday but still expect in the low 80s. We still have quite a bit of dry air through the mid-levels and a fairly stout upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Weak low pressure drops southeast tonight, and a westerly 20-25 kt LLJ develops over Missouri and southern IL.
404 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Forecast Key Points: - Morning Storms Today - More Storms Tonight - Flash Flood Watch in Effect Today through Saturday Morning As of 09Z Friday morning, the mid-level ridge across the southern US continues to progress eastward with zonal flow overspreading the forecast area. As the mid-level trough translates east across the northern Plains Saturday, the 850 mb front will progress southeast, allowing drier weather to return by Saturday afternoon. A warming trend may ensue by midweek as a western US ridge amplifies and overspreads the central Plains.