Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
337 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern MT, with cool front stretching southwest across WY. Above average temps can be expected across the area over the weekend as ridge rebuilds over the western US.
High pressure to the east is enabling some stratus to advect northwest into areas along and east of I-29. This stratus is likely to stay in place until the advancing low pressure system and cold front push it out on Friday. GFS mixes us to around 700mb which would yield highs in the low to mid 90s, while the ECMWF is slower with the warm surge and thus low to mid 80s, which is closer to the blended guidance.
Convection should be slow to dissipate overnight with the passage of the trough axis, but expect to see gradually decreasing coverages through the night. The surface cold frontal passage will occur around 12z-15z Fri, likely resulting in an increase in winds over the high plains, especially in our northeastern zones. Upper level ridging will build into the area thru Saturday, contributing to a warming trend and drier weather heading into the weekend.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough extending from the upper Mississippi Valley to east Texas with northwesterly flow across our region. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Central Texas and winds across our CWA were light and variable. This will shift the low level flow around to the east through southeast.
409 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Strong Canadian high pressure establishes firm control to finish the work week, as the 1026 mb high center slowly expands across lake Huron through the day. This high tucked beneath confluent mid level northwest flow will sustain deep layered dry and stable conditions. Greater prospects for unfiltered sunshine with northwest extent, increasing the probability for warmer readings to focus over the Tri- cities.
North winds will develop at the surface behind the trough, bringing slightly cooler and drier low level air across the plains. With more sunshine, highs may wind up being only a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Warmer and drier conditions will prevail through the weekend. The models continue to show a broad ridge of high pressure dominating the western U. The center of this ridge will be west of Colorado allowing for a weak north to northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa.
526 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 High pressure will pass over the area today, then the remnants of what was once Hurricane Harvey will track slowly across the Ohio Valley and cross the region this weekend accompanied by an area of rain. A cool start to the day (and also the new month) will be followed by a cooler than average day with north/northeast flow behind a cold front. At the surface, high pressure will slide across the region, with a trough (ahead of the remnants of Harvey) beginning to work into the SW portion of CWA late in the day - which may bring a light shower or two to the Laurels before sunset.
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A western ridge/eastern trough will persist in the mid and upper levels of the troposphere over the continental U.
Building high pressure will leave dry and warming conditions across eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Smoke and haze coverage will be favorable to increase under the ridge.
Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch for now; however, the threat is lessening given the lower totals. Some improvement is expected during the day on Friday, as winds become more southeasterly, helping to scour out the lower clouds.
High pressure north and northeast of the area, with a nice easterly to southeasterly flow into southeast Arizona.
336 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Mid-upper level trough currently extending from Northern Plains into Central Rockies will take on a more south and southeast trajectory as pacific ridge builds eastward. As thermal trough passes over the region tonight through the first half of Saturday, an area of mainly light rain is likely across northern into central Oklahoma. Little in the way of surface reflection of this passing trough, other than development of higher terrain/West Texas weak surface cyclone.
While Saturday will start off cool, with lows largely in the 40s, warmer air will quickly move in from the west.
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Brisk easterly winds will develop between high pressure building into the Great lakes and low pressure tracking into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday. Cold front representing the leading edge of cool Canadian airmass pushing south of the area this afternoon with high pressure center over lake Superior. This high pressure will continue to build into the great lakes region and provide a dry forecast for the short term period. Gradient expected to strengthen over the area as high pressure remains over the great lakes while remnants of Harvey move up into the TN valley. remainder of holiday weekend looks dry with a gradual warming trend with highs reaching the lower 80s by Labor Day.
Dry conditions return as high pressure starts to build over the region.
320 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 06Z surface data has high pressure over the northern Great lakes with a frontal boundary across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.
344 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Early this morning Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas were between the remnants of tropical system Harvey well off to the east and a building ridge of high pressure off to the west.
102 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Tonight through Saturday will be primarily dry but cool as Canadian high pressure settles over the region.
Despite this, kept pops in the low end of chance category (30%) as fear storms may fizzle as they are forced to leave the marginal CAPE axis across the western zones.
A cold front will move southeast through the forecast area today. Best Cape and shear diminish by around 00 UTC Saturday as the cold front moves through the area.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today behind yesterday's weak cold front passage. High pressure will rebuild over the region for the weekend, continuing the overall hot and dry conditions. Valley temperatures will be pushing once again into the low 90s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The hot and dry conditions will once again cause area wildfires to become active, and with more stable conditions under the high pressure ridge, air quality will likely deteriorate once again.
With the gusty northwest winds, and minimum RH values expected to bottom out near 20 percent or less, have gone ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the eastern Plains zones, including the lower elevations of Sheridan County. Ridging is progged to build back over the Northern Rockies for Saturday continuing the dry conditions and above normal temperatures, but decreasing winds as well.
Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch for now; however, the threat is lessening given the lower totals.
321 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 An upper level trough crossing the region today will bring showers to the area. Limited instability and mid level lapse rates, not expecting a great deal of thunder with the upper level trough. With cloudy skies in the eastern CWA around peak heating, highs will be on the cool side with readings in the lower 70s. Several CAMS are showing convection developing along the cold front late the afternoon in ND.
Erosion of the low cloud deck from the west that was occurring a few hours ago has largely stopped, with low clouds even back building west in satellite data. A westerly component to the low level flow should allow at least some partial clearing today, perhaps initially in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the shallowness of the moisture.
322 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Low amplitude ridging sits across the much of the western CONUS and is building into the region. Warmer air is advecting into the northern plains, which will bring much warmer temperatures to the CWA than yesterday. A series of waves pushing across the west/northwest flow will weaken the ridge late today into tonight, bringing a cold front to the area.
At the surface, a sw flow prevails between high pres to the south and east and a low pressure trough approaching from the Plains. WAA will help push temps above seasonal averages with highs in the lower to mid 30s. Tonight, A series of embedded trough axes rounding a broad mid-level low over Hudson Bay will brush the CWA tonight. Conditions will fall back to IFR to MVFR late tonight with the arrival of cold front and mixed pcpn.
656 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Aviation Areas of light freezing rain or drizzle will make for slick travel this morning north of I-96. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for ocnl light freezing rain and drizzle for much of the area north of I-96 through 11 AM. Sub freezing sfc and road temps are currently present across the advisory area and model consensus is for between 0. Sfc temps are progged to slowly recover above freezing from south to north through the morning, but latest lamp guidance at Big rapids and Mt Pleasant indicates temps remaining below freezing through 15Z.
High pressure off the southeast U. This area of high pressure will ridge back across the region through midweek, with winds gradually shifting from southeast to southwest as a weakening cold front drifts into north Florida.
848 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Periodic valley rain and mountain snow showers will persist into the afternoon hours as slow moving low pressure remains in place near Arizona. A trough will sweep through the Four Corners late in the week bringing cooler temperatures, but not much chance of precipitation this far south.
A warm front near the coast with dewpoints in the lower 70s over the gulf waters will begin pulling rich moisture onshore with pcpn water values nearing 2 inches, very unseasonally high. This slow movg warm front will reach near the interstate 20 corridor by Tue aftn with very heavy rain near this frontal boundary.
Large upper level closed low pressure continues to spin just south of the AZ/MX boarder sending lots of upper-level moisture into our region. Ample surface lift, especially along the coast this morning with coastal troughing, and the positioning of the jet stream allow for continued chances of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms today and tonight. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday owing to more of an onshore flow developing, especially as the coastal trough moves inland. Expecting another round of showers and fog developing late tonight as the aforementioned closed low moves farther east-northeast. Cold front starts to slide towards the CWA by Tuesday afternoon and a broken line of storms may develop just ahead of the boundary tapping into the moisture rich warm sector across the region.
Later this morning through early evening warm air advection forcing will increase from the northern Finger Lakes region to the western Mohawk Valley as weak low pressure moves from central Michigan to northern New York State. Lows overnight will range from the lower to middle 30s. Upper level trof will move into eastern Canada providing continued forcing over the northern areas. Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 40s under continued southwest flow with precipitation falling as rain showers. A cold front moves through late afternoon.
632 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A frontal boundary will remain north of the region today as high pressure remains centered over the southeast US.
/issued 530 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/ The subtropical jet continues to stream moisture in from the eastern Pacific as the warm front has push inland over the region.
917 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Fog will lift and visibilities will improve by late morning for all regions as the sun angle becomes high enough to burn through the low deck.
Strong deep layer ridging continues over the area providing for generally clear skies aloft, with moisture trapped near the surface, light/calm winds, and enough subsidence for fog promotion early this morning. High temperatures into the lower 80s most areas, except U70s to around 80 degrees immediate east coast. Very light to calm winds and mostly clear skies will combine with dewpoints holding in the low to mid 60s to produce another round of fog. Low-level ridge axis across the central FL coastal waters. A light offshore component will develop once again this evening/overnight as position of the ridge axis moves across our southern marine legs.
Based on the latest rigs & buoy obs, it appears that the warm front is situated just north of 42019 this morning. Large scale lift will increase during the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trough situated over southern Arizona & New Mexico makes its way across north Texas.
541 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week.
With this in mind sided closer to cooler guidance for high temps today. Late tonight, synoptic scale ascent will increase quickly from southwest to northeast across the CWA in advance of the upper level low elongating and moving into West Texas.
Surface trof over eastern New Mexico will deepen slightly today, maintaining mainly light southwest surface winds. /Issued 410 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/ A closed low currently resides over northwestern Mexico/southwestern AZ.
410 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 A closed low currently resides over northwestern Mexico/southwestern AZ.
1057 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a large, deep, warm anticyclone centered over the Bahamas, Cuba, Florida Peninsula. The ridge axis lies across the central Florida Peninsula. Currently, air temperatures are approaching 80F in most Keys island communities, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s.
916 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A frontal boundary will remain north of the region today as high pressure remains centered over the southeast US.
On warmer southwest to west flow, 850mb temps will rise to 3C to 6C. Expect the cold front to sink across across our northern counties by 03Z, and exit to our south shortly after 06Z Tuesday. While a the 00Z and 06Z run of the GFS do indicate some light snow possible over the northwestern counties 00-06Z Tuesday, the main change will be increased cloud cover, a northwesterly turn to the winds, and cooler air.
530 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 The subtropical jet continues to stream moisture in from the eastern Pacific as the warm front has push inland over the region.
611 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 Updated snowfall grids to better account for freezing rain and snow potential today. Believe there will be some isolated to scattered areas of freezing rain across far north ND and perhaps MN this morning. And believe this may be freezing rain to start with before changing to snow. The first round of colder air will move in as a cold front moves through.
405 AM PST Mon Dec 18 2017 Fog and freezing fog has developed over the usual places this morning in the Umpqua valley and near the Illinois valley in Grants Pass.
606 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A weak warm front will lift north into the region today and will stall over the region tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday and will cross the region Tuesday evening.
Isentropic lift should be increasing overnight as a warm front from the S LA/SE TX coast begins lifting back northward. Thus we should begin to see increasing coverage in showers from south to north which could provide enough mixing to limit the lower vsby/ceiling restrictions. A warm front near the coast with dewpoints in the lower 70s over the gulf waters will begin pulling rich moisture onshore with pcpn water values nearing 2 inches, very unseasonally high. This slow movg warm front will reach near the interstate 20 corridor by Tue aftn with very heavy rain near this frontal boundary.
431 AM PST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will provide dry conditions over Central California, with continued above normal afternoon highs and cool mornings through Tuesday.
424 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Low amplitude ridging sits across the much of the western CONUS and is building into the region. Warmer air is advecting into the northern plains, which will bring much warmer temperatures to the CWA than yesterday. A series of waves pushing across the west/northwest flow will weaken the ridge late today into tonight, bringing a cold front to the area.
649 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will be situated off the Southeast Coast today with a stalled front in the area promoting a slight chance of rain. Many of the high resolution models show only isolated coverage south. Above normal temperatures are forecast today despite persistent cloud cover, in the lower to middle 60s. Weak upper ridging over the area through the night, with a weak surface boundary off to the south of the cwa.
945 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will be situated off the Southeast Coast today with a stalled front just south of the area promoting a slight chance of rain.
808 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week.
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Light snow continued to fall over much of the Northland this morning as a trough passes through the region. High pressure will cause dry conditions to continue into Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Elevated convection is expected to continue through the day as moist southwesterly flow in advance of an upper trough overruns the cool sfc airmass. Temperatures acrs the area range from the lower 40s acrs central LA to lower 70s at Patterson just ahead of the front. /issued 341 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ Wx map shows cold front moving through Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana, moving through Fort Polk now. The dense marine fog will end behind the cold frontal passage.
335 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure only sticks around for a brief stay Thursday.
351 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure centered over southeast Nebraska will continue to move southeast tonight and Thursday. Cold air over the Plains associated with this high will continue filtering into the mid Mississippi Valley region into the evening. Mid clouds over the Plains should overspread much of the area tonight as the ridge axis moves into central Illinois. The clouds combined with increasing southerly flow should keep temperatures from bottoming out too low, and MOS guidance is a few degrees warmer than what was previously forecast. This should allow temperatures to warm back to near or even above normal in the low to mid 40s across most of the area south of the snow field.
High pressure Thursday. A warmer system will cross this weekend with unsettled weather. Colder air will move in behind the cold front this afternoon and evening, with any remaining precipitation transitioning to snow. Many areas will see a burst of snow on the back side of the precipitation band, but due to temperatures and a wet ground, don't expect any accumulations outside of the higher elevations. A high pressure system then builds in for Thursday. High pressure slides to the east Thursday night allowing surface winds to turn southerly bringing in warmer air through the end of the period.
Ern Pac high pressure will be nudging inland the next couple of days maintaining the the chance of seeing some record maxes in our CWA through Fri. Records in the Nrn Sac Vly for the 7th and 8th are in the low 80s, seemingly out of reach, but lower to 78 on the 9th, back within reach.
336 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 This Evening through Thursday: In the wake of this morning's cold front passage, temperatures will continue to drop through this evening and into the night. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region, which should allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid-30's as clouds clear out early in the morning. High temperatures are expected to range from the low 50's in the Delta to the low 60's through the Pine Belt.
1235 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
Ern Pac high pressure will be nudging inland the next couple of days maintaining the chance of seeing some record maxes in our CWA through Fri. Records in the Nrn Sac Vly for the 7th and 8th are in the low 80s, seemingly out of reach, but lower to 78 on the 9th, back within reach.
240 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 Main focus here will be with expected strong winds in the wind prone areas of southeast Wy overnight through Thursday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across Thursday night. Otherwise just some snow showers overnight into Thursday over the higher mtns.
/issued 1003 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ Despite the cold start, warmer highs are expected today compared to yesterday. This morning, by midnight, the remaining freezing drizzle had exited Bryan and Atoka counties and ended farther to the north, with dry conditions expected to persist.
248 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Northwest flow behind departing low pressure may provide scattered snow showers into Thursday morning. High pressure brings a brief dry period Thursday night.
Their fast movement has been helping to keep some of the higher rainfall totals generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, but some spots have seen a little over an inch where activity has been training. Further to the south toward the coast and offshore, skies should remain mostly cloudy to cloudy which will help keep overnight low temperatures a little warmer than up north.
1115 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
High pressure continues to shift in from the northwest this morning, and will be over central SD by 12Z, before sinking across eastern NE/KS through the rest of the morning, keeping a ridge extended over the eastern half of SD. The ridge will finally exit our MN counties by 00Z, with warm air advection taking hold tonight. Warmer air aloft, and the addition of significant cloud cover, should keep temperatures from tumbling too far tonight. Models have trended the warm front farther south again on Thursday.
324 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Recent water vapor imagery showing upper trough axis to the east, rotating around the Hudson Bay upper low. Will have lows in the teens for most locations, with some rises late in the night as the warmer air surges in. 925 mb temps rise some 12-14 C across the area from this afternoon to Thursday afternoon for a much warmer day. Will still have some cirrus and a snowfield to contend with in the north, but still expect surface temps to be around 20 F warmer than today in general.
322 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
Satellite imagery shows a nice plume of sub- tropical moisture extending across Mexico and the southern states and then northward into New England as trough swings through the Great Lakes regions.
The overall forecast seems reasonable, but would not be surprised if we were a couple of degrees cooler than forecast in the Rogue Valley. The latest surface analysis shows a thermal trough along the south Oregon coast, but it's weaker compared to yesterday. The thermal trough will weaken further this afternoon through Thursday keeping winds light and seas low.
205 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Water vapor imagery clearly shows a shrtwv trof passing across the area while visible imagery shows that most all low clouds have dissipated on the e slopes of the Davis Mtns. A few SHRA may near the Big Bend area otherwise warmer still on Fri, especially across the w where the low-level thermal ridge will be well established. A cold front will attempt to edge slowly into nrn CWFA Fri evening and may be near I-20 by noon on Sat. A minor shrtwv trof passing and s winds returning over the cold air may result in some precip Mon, but warmer Mon PM and probably Tue. Next cold front will likely arrive either Wed or Thur and with a mid-level trough to the w models hint at some precip Thur.