Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front has moved southeast of the I-59 corridor and out of our forecast area. Moderately strong northwest flow aloft will persist across the forecast area from tonight through Wednesday night, before weakening and veering to NNE as a mid-level ridge begins to expand into the region from the southwest. At the surface, the center of a ridge is predicted to become established across the central Appalachians tonight, providing light northeast flow and favorable conditions for radiational cooling given mostly clear skies.
Also freezing levels are around 6000 ft. There is also decent warm advection occuring in the lower to mid levels Wednesday. The freezing level is around 5 kft today so, even though the updraft depth is expected to be limited. The storms should decrease by late afternoon with the trough axis moving east and diminishing insolation.
Northwest flow has taken shape in the upper levels with ridging amplifying over the Rockies. Little change is expected with this pattern heading into tomorrow aside from the ridge gradually moving east into the Plains. Any storms tonight associated with a subtle disturbance on the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain north, as capping limits instability in our area. This combines with weak perturbations on the northern periphery of the ridge to generate thunderstorms most likely in western/central NE, with a LLJ aiding in an overnight MCS.
325 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Region remains under gradually weakening northwest upper flow pattern as east coast trough lifts northeast into the western Atlantic and upper ridging builds back into the southern plains. "Cold" front settles into south Georgia and stalls with surface ridging building down in the lee of the Appalachians.
Convection is forecast to develop over the High Plains Wednesday evening and spread eastward into eastern Nebraska aided by a strengthening low-level jet.
As the cold front continues to push east of the high terrain this morning, deeper moisture and thus mid/high clouds continue to exit eastward paving the way for increasing insolation and low cu. VFR through the period at all sites (with the possible exception of MVFR fog at TRI in the morning) as drier high pressure builds into the region behind the passage of the cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 84 64 86 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 83 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 81 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 59 83 59 / 0 0 10 10 0.
Off and on warm advective showers are expected to push into the area overnight along the nose of the low-level jet, potentially aided by a weak mid-level disturbance. The upper trough axis shifts off to the east on Wednesday with warmer air lifting back into the area behind the showers. This will allow temperatures to warm back into the lower 80s for most areas.
The rest of today and tomorrow will also see a mid level ridge building across the southern plains.
500mb riding should become re-established by Wednesday morning as troughing along the east coast lifts northeastward and the center of the ridge progresses east over the state of Texas. With ridging back in control, should see more sunshine tomorrow and high temperatures closer to seasonal averages -- mid to upper 90s.
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Skies continue clearing at midday, with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. This will be due to upper west coast ridging weakening as a system propagates across Canada, causing the overall pattern to become less amplified. Thermal ridge will begin to approach from the west as the large scale pattern begins to evolve.
1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A little warmer today, but overall still a nice day in store for the area. Given decent mixing up to 850-700mb and slightly warmer temperatures than anticipated yesterday, have bumped temperatures up several degrees this afternoon. Despite the warmer temperatures today, continued lower humidity values and breezy winds will result in a generally pleasant, albeit warm, day.
326 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered roughly over northern Mexico and southern NM upstream of a deep trough that extends from Hudson Bay southward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Also evident on WV imagery is deep moisture pooled from the base of the trough aloft, westward acrs the NW Gulf (and south of the frontal boundary) into northern Mexico, while drier air is spreading acrs the northern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the CWA. In addition, KLCH radar shows sctd showers and a few tstms developing along and south of Highways 12 and 190 where leftover boundaries from earlier convection are interacting with the low level moisture and daytime heating.
806 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 High pressure leading in cooler and less humid air will move from the Ohio Valley tonight to the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday to off the coast on Wednesday night.
513 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Ridging and warmer temperatures have returned to the area today, with highs peaking 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Wednesday will remain warm, but with the transitory ridge breaking down and increased mid-level moisture, there does appear to be an increased chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially across northern areas.
1059 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front moves well offshore this evening. High pressure will then build in from the west Wednesday, slide to the northeast of the area Wed night and then remain stationary through the end of the week.
With the higher shear environment east of the Cascades, some stronger storms are definitely possible in Lake and Klamath counties. By Wednesday, we're expecting more storm activity around northern California into parts of Oregon as an upper level low stays off the California coastline.
High pressure and a generally dry atmosphere will keep our skies mostly clear/partly cloudy through the short term. Winds will switch around to the ESE tomorrow as the center of the high moves off to the east.
Canadian high pressure that brought our record cold early this morning was pushing off to the east. A warm front was draped across southern SD to western IA with temperatures well into the 80s south of the front, and in the 70s to the north and east. 2) Warmer and more humid on Wednesday. Severe threat: Forecast soundings indicate these storms will be elevated northeast of the warm front with moderate to strong deep layer shear and freezing levels above 10k ft. Definitely warmer tonight with the increasing moisture/clouds with lows in the lower 60s. Wednesday: Warmer and more humid with any lingering showers or storms pushing east of the cwa in the morning, as the warm front lifts to our north and east. Dewpoints will be pushing into the 60s with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
The late night mixing will keep overnight lows near sixty across the Devils Lake basing while west central MN sites will drop into the lower 50s.
Surface ridging conditions will maintain the dry low-level air and light winds through the night, especially across northwest AR into far southeast OK.
Even though the atmosphere will be largely stabilized overnight, an upper-level trough moving through may generate a few additional light or moderate showers during the overnight period. Early on Wednesday morning a broad upper- level trough will be pushing offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, as the tail end of that trough extends into northern FL. The ridge axis of the Atlantic Subtropical Ridge will be located across the Treasure Coast, resulting in a S/SSW wind regime across central FL. The Atlantic ridge axis lifts slightly north into central FL mid week, as a weak front washes out as it moves south across the FL peninsula.
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 VFR conditions this evening will begin to deteriorate across the srn portions of the region, as a returning warm front brings low cigs nwd into the I-20 corridor overnight/towards daybreak Wednesday. Farther south, temperatures will be held up a bit more due to the lingering cloud cover behind the recent cold front, which has stalled out down along I-10 and will begin a gradual retreat back northward as a warm front later tonight through the day on Wednesday. Therefore, expect clouds to return areawide along with the warm front on Wednesday with more typical summertime conditions expected. Otherwise, expect generally quiet and increasingly warm and humid conditions going forward through the remainder of the short-term period on Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
940 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move off the North Carolina coast overnight.
528 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A tranquil weather pattern will continue through much of the near term as high pressure remains in control. In the upper levels, northwest flow will gradually be replaced by a ridge building east from the Plains.
Hot and dry and conditions are expected through Wednesday Mostly clear tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. On Wednesday a cold front will drop south through the state during the afternoon/evening timeframe.
STP An upper ridge will keep mostly dry conditions in place tonight. It will also be breezy in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening and switch winds from northwesterly to northeasterly.
/EC/ A slow moving front has made its transition to the bottom of the state but still serve as a focus for lingering showers across the High 84 corridor through this afternoon. All activity should dissipate by early evening and a quiet cooler night(low temps ranging from the low to mid 60s)can be expected. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s including a few spots hitting 90-91 degrees thanks to ridging across the western half of the CONUS and a high pressure anchored over southwest TX. /JNE/ Upper level ridging over the Plains keeps the region in a light northwesterly flow through midweek.
Enhanced marine air influence coupled with an approaching upper level low continues to keep our region cool with near to below normal daytime highs. The upper level low offshore is now centered near 36 N 125 W, about 165 miles west-northwest of Santa Cruz. Regardless, that's still a deep enough marine layer to allow for cooler, moist marine air to infiltrate well inland into much of our forecast area.
Starting the short term period, quiet conditions are expected, as an upper level ridge continues to sit over New Mexico, bringing mostly synoptically sinking air to the region. Lows will cool into the low/mid 60s over the plains, mid 40s to 50s for the valleys, and into the 40s in the mountains. The aforementioned upper level ridge will remain over New Mexico, but will begin progressing eastward. Pockets of increased vorticity will be flowing around the upper level ridge, and will increase synoptic lifting over the region. Also, westerly winds aloft will increase, and will allow for orographic lifting to become established over the higher terrain. The upper-ridge will begin to flatten and flow aloft will be from the west-southwest, allowing for plenty of moisture to advect into the region.
757 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Cold front exits east this morning taking the rain with it. Dry with high pressure through the middle of the week. Otherwise, with high pressure continuing across the area on Wednesday, abundant sunshine and dry conditions are expected with highs about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. High pressure will provide dry, and gradually warming/increasing humidity during the period.
939 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Clear skies over most of the area, as an area of high pressure tries to push southeast into the area overnight. Temperatures have fallen off into the lower to mid 60s in most locations, with some typical warmer temperatures at the Huntsville International Airport and the Muscle Shoals Airport (around 70 degrees in those locations). Northwest flow at 5h will persist the next couple of days as the surface and 8h ridges shifting east to the east Coast.
939 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A much drier airmass moves in place as high pressure builds in overnight.
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move off the North Carolina coast overnight.
/issued 254 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ Troughing aloft continues over the E U. between a stout ridge over the W CONUS and W Atlantic ridging. At the surface, ridging extends across the peninsula from the W Atlantic into the E Gulf while a cold front settles into the SE U. High pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues into mid week, with S to SW winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Ridge axis lifts north during the latter half of the week, with winds becoming more easterly.
/issued 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ High pressure will begin to shift east over the next 24 hours. Wednesday will be the last day of low humidity as a warm front will begin to lift north from the Gulf Coast.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: A slow moving front has made its transition to the bottom of the state but still serve as a focus for lingering showers across the High 84 corridor through this afternoon. All activity should dissipate by early evening and a quiet cooler night(low temps ranging from the low to mid 60s)can be expected. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s including a few spots hitting 90-91 degrees thanks to ridging across the western half of the CONUS and a high pressure anchored over southwest TX. /JNE/ Upper level ridging over the Plains keeps the region in a light northwesterly flow through midweek.
It should be quiet overnight with skies clearing out by around midnight then starting to cloud back up with the remains of the cold front still draped over the area.
725 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will push to our southeast tonight.
/Issued 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ Region remains under gradually weakening northwest upper flow pattern as east coast trough lifts northeast into the western Atlantic and upper ridging builds back into the southern plains. "Cold" front settles into south Georgia and stalls with surface ridging building down in the lee of the Appalachians.
531 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Pattern shift underway across the forecast area as upper level ridge axis shifts eastward into the plans.
552 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, high pressure had filled in across northern and central Texas behind a cold front located across south Texas. This increase in cloud cover and slightly warmer air should also keep lows in the low 70s tonight. Increasing southerly winds will bring much warmer air into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will be 4-6 deg C warmer than today, which should allow afternoon highs to push into the upper 90s.
/issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ High pressure will begin to shift east over the next 24 hours. Wednesday will be the last day of low humidity as a warm front will begin to lift north from the Gulf Coast.
High pressure will remain in control over the region through Wednesday. Winds may gust to near 20 knots over the higher terrain of Nrn AR during the afternoon hours.
This drying trend in combination with a ridge of high pressure aloft strengthening over the western United States will result in a brief period of hotter temperatures this weekend. This time the upper high becomes centered over the Pacific Northwest bringing excessive heat to that region. Farther south, though, this position of the upper high will eventually favor an influx of moisture from the east and southeast as a surface cold front dropping south through the Plains pushes westward into eastern AZ.
This high is forecast to shift to the east/southeast tonight into the day on Wednesday, with south/southeasterly return flow beginning in its wake. For tonight, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along a warm front from Nebraska eastward into Iowa.
Southerly surface flow tonight will keep lows warmer, in the 50s across the state. Hot and dry and conditions are expected through Wednesday Mostly clear tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. On Wednesday a cold front will drop south through the state during the afternoon/evening timeframe.
508 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Weak cold front slips into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota late Wednesday afternoon.
Beautiful summer afternoon in progress with high pressure draped over the region. Cooler than normal temperatures with cyclonic flow aloft with 1830Z temps generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Quiet weather will continue through Wednesday night with a transition back to a warmer airmass as a warm front passes to the northwest early Wednesday. Amplified flow regime over the country with a ridge focused over the Rockies and a downstream trough overt the eastern US. The trough axis will shift east tonight and Wednesday.
Above average temperatures are expected by late week under building ridge. High pressure will be in control the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft.
Drier air expands over the area with warmer column and mostly clear skies should prevail by late evening. It should be quiet overnight with skies clearing out by around midnight then starting to cloud back up with the remains of the cold front still draped over the area.
454 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
1122 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Ridging and warmer temperatures have returned to the area today, with highs peaking 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Wednesday will remain warm, but with the transitory ridge breaking down and increased mid-level moisture, there does appear to be an increased chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially across northern areas. Thursday, an H5 trough dropping into the northern plains will interact with the cutoff low to the southwest to bring cooler weather, along with showers and thunderstorms for most of the region.
Clear skies over most of the area, as an area of high pressure tries to push southeast into the area overnight. Temperatures have fallen off into the lower to mid 60s in most locations, with some typical warmer temperatures at the Huntsville International Airport and the Muscle Shoals Airport (around 70 degrees in those locations). Northwest flow at 5h will persist the next couple of days as the surface and 8h ridges shifting east to the east Coast. The latest set of medium range models continues to shunt the stronger mid level jet and streamflow in the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with a stronger upper ridge holding off the mid and upper Atlantic Coast.
Pattern shift underway across the forecast area as upper level ridge axis shifts eastward into the plans. Monsoonal burst of moisture starts off this period with moisture streaming northward as a low pressure system digs southeast along the West Coast. High pressure out across the plains aiding in steering this round of juice up and over eastern Utah and western Colorado.
At the surface, the sub- tropical ridge is stretching from the Atlantic across southern Florida, setting up generally southerly and westerly flow today.
Mainly clear skies within this cool pattern will bring a chilly night with lows in the low/mid 50's in most areas and a few upper 40's in SW VA, but believe winds will stay up enough to prevent more widespread 40's. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 86 67 86 / 0 0 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 62 87 64 89 / 0 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 61 86 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 84 58 86 / 0 0 10 0 10.
420 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will push south of the area today, allowing a little drier air to overspread the area through Thursday.
With an inverted mid level trough lingering over Deep South Texas and moderate instability over the lower Texas coastal waters this morning, this thunderstorm activity will likely continue through the morning and possibly into the afternoon. A mid level ridge will build over Texas later today and continue to build into Thursday. However, even though the mid level inverted trough will weaken today as the ridge builds in from the west, PWATs will remain over 2 inches. On Thursday, the ridge will be stronger and drier air will filter across the area, which should be enough to keep tonight and Thursday dry.
133 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A much drier airmass moves in place as high pressure builds in overnight.
Surface dew points will be in the low-mid 70s. At this time, given the marginality of the traditional criteria, and breezy south winds holding wet bulb globe temperatures (a more complete assessment of heat stress potential) down in the lower category, a Heat Advisory won't be needed for today. Veered downslope flow and subsidence from mean ridging will preclude any convection across our area.
Above average temperatures are expected by late week under building ridge. Dry and comfortable today under broad high pressure. High pressure will remain in control for the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points in the upper 60s and the expected low in central Louisiana around 70 degrees and along the I-10 corridor in the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Temperatures will rebound into the lower 90s before the showers and thunderstorms begin to develop along the c-brz and push inland today. One of the things of note is weak ridging aloft from the west will hold back overall precip potential through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
1131 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving cold front slides offshore this evening, as a wave of low pressure rides north along it.
111 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, high pressure had filled in across northern and central Texas behind a cold front located across south Texas. This increase in cloud cover and slightly warmer air should also keep lows in the low 70s tonight. Increasing southerly winds will bring much warmer air into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will be 4-6 deg C warmer than today, which should allow afternoon highs to push into the upper 90s.
416 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will dominate the region's weather over the next few days, leading to dry conditions with a gradual warming trend through the end of the week.
Warmer weather will be moving in Wednesday with possible showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon over northeastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin by Thursday morning. An upper level trough has moved through this afternoon allowing for diurnally driven showers to develop over the CWA.
Convection is forecast to develop over the High Plains Wednesday evening and spread eastward into eastern Nebraska aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A mid/upper-level trough axis is forecast over the region during this time-period with amplified ridging over the northern Rockies.
357 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front drops south of the area this morning. Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north this afternoon into Thursday with below normal temperatures.
This is expected to continue on this trajectory through tonight with the far southern short wave trough with this system moving across the border into northern Minnesota overnight. Low level moisture is expected to return through the day and continue into tonight with an axis of ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg expected to be in place across eastern Minnesota today that should then translate southeast with the short wave trough.
226 AM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper ridging is crossing the Rockies from NM to MT, as an upper low just offshore the CA remain stationary. A cold front will push south across the CWA tonight.