Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The most likely area for convection will be across north central into northeast Oklahoma--near the nose of the low- level jet. This convection may result in an effective cold front with slightly cooler temperatures across north central into northeast Oklahoma for tomorrow. There is a low chance thunderstorms may develop along the effective cold front during the afternoon hours. Hot weather is expected areawide by the upcoming weekend as the 596 dam mid-level ridge will be centered across the Arklatex. A low-level thermal ridge is forecast to develop on the northwest side of the ridge with 850 mb temperatures progged to be ~24 to 30 C. Convection chances appears to be minimal during the period with only low chances across the northern Oklahoma (near the northwest periphery of the ridge).
651 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Another round of thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this evening ahead of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is indicated for the weekend. The actual cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
with highs expected to climb back into the lower to mid 80s again tomorrow afternoon.
749 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will clear the state late tonight, taking lingering showers and thunderstorms with it. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
Updated at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The rest of the afternoon and evening hours should be mainly dry as a weak cold front stalls to our north. Have delay precip chances until late evening into the overnight hours for much of the area with area wide scattered showers/storms not likely until Fri afternoon when the cold front makes it into central KY.
Dirty upper level ridge over the area is weakening which is supporting an increase in weak thunderstorm activity.
Our area will take an extended break from monsoonal flow as high pressure transitions eastward and becomes centered over Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama.
743 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will cross the state late today producing strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
1022 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will move through the region tonight into Friday. High pressure will then move into the region allowing for dry conditions for the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms could persist overnight over the central Idaho mountains and Baker County Oregon, as moist unstable monsoon air remains in our area, and there is some dynamic support from the upper level trough as it approaches the west coast.
944 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will clear the state late overnight, taking any lingering showers with it. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
916 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Wx map shows continued high pressure ridge at the sfc and aloft over TX/LA this evening, and for the next several days. As expected, precipitation is at a premium this afternoon with just a few isolated showers managing to break through the building upper ridge across the northwestern gulf.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s for most locations into tonight.
608 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A mid to upper-level high will remain anchored over the southern Plains through the weekend while an attendant ridge axis pivots from the central Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Plains. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis places a weak surface boundary from near the IA-MO border westward through southeast NE into central NE. Highs on Friday could be a bit warmer than today with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
514 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Another round of thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this evening ahead of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is indicated for the weekend. The actual cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
18Z surface data has the cold front from northwest Ohio back across northern Missouri and into southern Nebraska. Tonight quiet and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
GAH PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Pattern continues to be on track with the upper level ridge beginning to break down and upper trough/low making its move into the Pacific Northwest.
1002 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Water vapor imagery reveals a large mid to upper-level anticyclone parked over the southern Plains. The regional RAOBs sampled rising heights at 500 and 200 mb, indicating the trough complex over the Northeast has receded, allowing the previously mentioned mid-upper level anticyclone to spread southeast across Florida.
Into the weekend, a deep trough takes shape over the Great Basin, which will eventually dry the southwest out. Before that happens though, this trough looks to be in a good position to induce a surge over the weekend.
522 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper ridging continue across the southwest to south central CONUS, with northwest flow persisting across the northern Great plains. Several upper waves are rounding the axis of the ridge, pushing into central Wyoming at this time. Cooler air will push in from behind the low tomorrow afternoon, with the strongest convection initiating across northwest SD, the northern Black Hills, and into central SD. and even stronger shear across northwest SD as boundary layer winds north of the low develop a southeasterly component.
Recent HRRR/RAP output suggests that additional convection will develop overnight as the low-level southwesterly jet impinges on the existing surface boundary.
821 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will clear the state late tonight, taking lingering showers and thunderstorms with it. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
518 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will cross the state late today producing strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
906 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Drier and cooler weather is indicated for the weekend. Cooler and drier air will slowly drift southward tonight. The actual cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
Still the potential for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop tonight across portions of northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas on periphery of upper ridge but overall precipitation coverage is expected to be less compared to this morning.
1131 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper ridging continue across the southwest to south central CONUS, with northwest flow persisting across the northern Great plains. Several upper waves are rounding the axis of the ridge, pushing into central Wyoming at this time. Cooler air will push in from behind the low tomorrow afternoon, with the strongest convection initiating across northwest SD, the northern Black Hills, and into central SD. and even stronger shear across northwest SD as boundary layer winds north of the low develop a southeasterly component. Some uncertainty if the low ceilings will impact the KGCC and KRAP terminals.
18Z surface data has the cold front from northwest Ohio back across northern Missouri and into southern Nebraska. Tonight quiet and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Dry and quiet weather will last through Saturday morning, as high pressure remains in place.
Strong upper level low continues over eastern Canada with trough axis moving slightly east today over the area. Temperatures should be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with full insolation/high thin clouds. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
On Friday, a weak cold front will drop south toward the region. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with clouds and rain hanging around as highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will remain close to normal with lows in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will remain over the region into Saturday with more scattered thunderstorms expected. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
We're on an upward trend Friday through the weekend due to an easterly wave that wraps around the western flank of the high, which remains anchored over Texas.
A surface cold front extends SW across the Midwest as it slowly moves southward across the Ohio Valley. A large upper ridge is centered across the Southern Plains with surface ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast. The slowly southward moving cold front is expected to be across central KY by 12z Saturday.
An upper trough will bring cooler temperatures to inland locations on Friday and Saturday and a slight chance of showers to the North Bay.
1138 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front moving from central Illinois into southern Illinois tonight could bring a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to areas south of the I-72 corridor, but otherwise fair weather is expected overnight through Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Friday. A cold front is approaching the I-72 corridor this evening with the last remaining thunderstorms and outflow boundaries dissipating. Expect cooler temperatures to develop tonight, ranging from some upper 50s north of I-74 to some lingering upper 60s south of I-70. A very slow moving cold front is draped across the midsection of the state this afternoon. Slightly lower dewpoints and temps in the low to mid 80s range will result in heat indexes close to ambient temp for much of Central Illinois, with a light northerly wind.
313 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The Mid-South remains in northwest flow aloft this morning as an upper ridge remains located over the Southern Plains and a broad upper trof sits over the East Coast. The upper ridge will gradually begin building east during the latter part of the weekend. As it does, chances for convection will begin to diminish and temperatures will begin to creep back into the lower to mid 90s for highs.
High pressure will keep it dry with highs around 80.
Afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably mild however, with highs mainly in the lower 80s. This afternoon will see a wave attempt to top the ridge in northern South Dakota.
Still can expect some showers and isolated thunderstorms across the high plains tonight. Relatively widespread showers and thunderstorms today accompanied by chances for wetting rains along the Colorado border as monsoonal moisture makes a strong push into the High Plains and adjacent mountains.
128 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected for the weekend. Otherwise, a quiet night ensues with cooler and drier air slowly drifting southward behind the front. The cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
A short wave slowly riding over a ridge centered over the Great Plains will move across the Dakotas Friday afternoon and may spark some shower activity in the Brainerd Lakes area Friday night, so have some PoPs there though left out the shot for tstorms since instability is lacking. A mid level trof will move through the region on Saturday accompanied by a robust vorticity maxima moving through on the fast northwest flow. A cold front will move through the region Saturday night with more showers and storms possible in the vicinity of the front.
This was a result of a combination of the rainfall from yesterday and cooler air aloft. The forecast will remain dry through Saturday and then a cold front will move through the region on Saturday night.
So far the lower visibilities have been confined to our west in the BBW/TIF areas. The weather both today/tonight are shaping up to be precipitation free for our area in between systems primarily to our north/west while the overall pattern aloft continues to reflect upper ridging across the interior CONUS. Temps today should average in the low/mid 80s, just a few degrees shy of seasonal normals. Storms which develop in western Neb/SD are this evening are expected to remain to our west/north and focus across SD overnight on the nose of the low level jet.
A second cold front, now over the Ohio Valley, will sink slowly to the southeast, passing through North Carolina on Saturday.
Wind is (still) the word for this forecast, as location and axis of strong subtropical 500 mb ridge.
425 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 A cold front will clear the state late overnight, taking any lingering showers with it. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
Tonight Through Saturday Continued showers and thunderstorms across mainly the northeast half of the state today has led to plenty of cloud cover across the state resulting in temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday across portions of northeast Arkansas. Rain and extensive cloud cover on Friday will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
GFS has a mid-level disturbance associated with this moisture to provide the energy for overnight activity as it moves over the higher terrain. Into the weekend, a deep trough takes shape over the Great Basin, which will eventually dry the southwest out. Before that happens though, this trough looks to be in a good position to induce a surge over the weekend. Scattered to numerous shra/tsra is expected after 18Z Friday with the highest coverage along/north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds will be light ad variable overnight, becoming SW at 10-15 kts gusting 15-25 kts after 18Z and lasting through 02Z Saturday with the stronger winds generally over the higher terrain.
A large upper ridge axis sits over the western Plains with southern Indiana and central Kentucky sitting in front of the ridge. At the surface, a weak cold front sits over central Indiana. Winds will come from the southwest to start the day, but as the day goes on, winds will veer towards the north with the passage of the cold front. High pressure advancing from the Midwest to the mid Atlantic will keep us dry and warm with light winds.
The idea is still the same with a Dakotas convective system riding north of a low pressure system this evening, heading east toward the area for Saturday. Water vapor imagery confirms a vigorous trough over WY. The 700-850mb moisture transport convergence signal in the warm frontal zone is moderate and shifts into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa Saturday morning. To the northeast, and dependent on how strong the cyclone is, could be a deformation/frontogenetic region across western WI bringing mid-level clouds and showers. Bottom line is the forecast has been changed to trend cloudier, cooler, and wetter for Saturday with mid-range rain chances. The NAM/ECMWF solution would suggest highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and a showery day in prolonged warm advection, then deformation north of the low track.
1134 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will clear the state late overnight, taking any lingering showers with it. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
1153 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A mid to upper-level high will remain anchored over the southern Plains through the weekend while an attendant ridge axis pivots from the central Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Plains. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis places a weak surface boundary from near the IA-MO border westward through southeast NE into central NE. Highs on Friday could be a bit warmer than today with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
A low pressure system off the California coast will move through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend.
332 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Widespread convection over the northeast half of our forecast area is forecast to weaken later this morning as the moisture feed from the low-level jet diminishes. The upper-level ridge to our south/southwest will shift to a position over north Texas and Oklahoma this weekend. As the ridge recedes a bit early/mid week, rain chances will return, and temperatures will drop back below the seasonal average for a few days.
Overnight, the warm front from this morning's convection should stall out near the MO/AR border and start to become more defined. This activity should stay to our south, thanks to the high pressure moving in from the north, keeping the warm front south and advecting drier air into the area. With that said, the favored area is close enough to keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast in case coverage increases or there is a more northward progression of the warm front. Saturday, high pressure will take hold, giving us light easterly winds and drier air.
The flow aloft orients more southwest to northeast Saturday and beyond as the subtropical ridge across NM-TX migrates east toward LA- AR. At the same time, an upper level low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
125 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 A cold front will move through the region tonight into Friday. High pressure will then move into the region allowing for dry conditions for the weekend.
403 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 High pressure will provide dry weather and comfortable temperatures through Saturday.
The 00z GFS/EURO both show a 500 mb trough across the western U.
236 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U. and another trough on the west coast with a ridge across the Rockies and plains. With high pressure to the west, breezy southwest to northwest winds will persist today.
1147 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected for the weekend. Otherwise, a quiet night ensues with cooler and drier air slowly drifting southward behind the front. The cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
1006 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 A cooler, less humid, and dry weather pattern will last through the weekend.
High temps will reach the lower to mid 90s across most of the area with heat indices from 102 to 107 this afternoon.
341 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Current upper level analysis has broad ridging across the south central CONUS with large trof across the West Coast and over the northeastern US. At the surface, trof of low pressure extends from eastern Montana south to eastern Wyoming.
651 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 High pressure will provide dry weather and comfortable temperatures through Saturday.
622 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Early morning satellite imagery and radar show quiet weather across eastern Kansas and western Missouri as high pressure builds into the forecast area. An upper level trough will move inland along the West Coast Saturday.
741 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Cooler and drier air is expected today through the weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
A surface cold front extends SW across the Midwest as it slowly moves southward across the Ohio Valley. A large upper ridge is centered across the Southern Plains with surface ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast. The slowly southward moving cold front is expected to be across central KY by 12z Saturday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 90 73 / 30 30 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 68 / 20 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 90 68 / 20 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 67 88 62 / 10 20 10 0.
Abundant high and mid level cloud cover over northern California this morning ahead of an offshore low pressure system now centered near 41N 132W. The upper low center pushes in to the northwest corner of the state over night pushing shower/thunderstorm chances across the northern portion of the forecast area. The highest chances of precipitation most areas will be on Saturday as the low center tracks slowly across the north state.
821 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 An upper-level ridge situated over the southern U.
629 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Cooler and drier air is expected today through the weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
418 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 High pressure over north central MN at 08z with skies clear over northern MN and most of eastern ND with temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s. SPC has removed the marginal risk for severe storms for later today and seems reasonable with Hi-res models indicating stronger activity late today/eve Mobridge, Pierre, Huron SD area.
416 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Upper level ridging will remain in place for the next few days over central Texas keeping us hot and dry.
Monsoonal moisture largely comes to an end today as an upper-level area of low pressure pushes inland off the coast of Northern California effectively pushing the monsoonal high eastward. This incoming trough will provide us with a dry southwesterly flow that will persist through the weekend. As stated in previous discussions, we have been monitoring these areas closely due to gusty winds - particularly in the higher elevations - coupled with low RH values.
404 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 A cold front slipping south of Illinois during today, will bring dry and less humid air along with seasonable temperatures into central Illinois today through Saturday with ample sunshine.
There are still some light showers affecting areas mainly north of I-10, as the upper level trough axis continues to work its way to the east. The trough axis will be just east of the area around sunrise, which should move precipitation out as well. Temperatures should be generally cooler with west to northwest winds behind a cold front that moved through tonight.
/issued 331 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Dry westerly winds are expected to prevail today as an upper trough moves across aloft. Cooler temperatures aloft associated with the trough will keep afternoon highs in the 60s. Modest H50 height rises Friday out ahead of a deepening trough across the southwest CONUS will help lift temperatures into the 70s for most of us on the Caprock, to around 80 in the Rolling Plains.
Snow will be more favored in northern MN with rain for NW WI, there may also be some freezing rain initially in the mix.
This will clear out this evening and overnight, allowing temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s. By afternoon, a warm front should set up just south of the Kansas/Nebraska state line, with moisture and instability increasing near and south of it. Models are in general agreement that the highest coverage of storms will be in southeastern portions of the area, but an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across the entire area. Activity will shift east of the area after midnight as the upper trough axis moves through.
221 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Today is a brief period between upper troughs.