Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Warmer than normal temperatures and conditions will make a return to the Ark-La-Tex now through the end of the week as surface ridging remains to our east. Until then, a warm frontal boundary that drifted northeast across the area, has reintroduced muggy conditions with dew points in the sticky 60s. Maximum temperatures will also be milder than normal, ranging from the lower 80s in northern zones to the upper 80s in southern zones. Synoptic features and disturbances will remain to our north and west with ridging aloft as well, keeping precipitation chances away from the area through the rest of the week.
Have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for the remainder of this afternoon, as a result, blending in a mix of the latest MAV/MET and HRRR solutions. /Issued 343 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022/ We have another chilly morning under some strong radiational cooling, though temps should stay mainly above freezing and only some patchy frost potential in the far NE. Dewpts should be a bit higher along with some temps moderating warmer today and resultant min RH values look to stay above fire danger levels today. Thursday max temps are progged to moderate even warmer with many areas above climo reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Pleasant afternoon across Eastern KY with high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast still in charge. With southerly flow in place across the area, much warmer temps today with upper 60s to lower 70s. Out ahead of the front, scattered light rain showers and sprinkles will form, although they will initially be battling some dry air in place in the lower levels. During the day Thursday into Thursday night the frontal boundary will begin to lay down in a more east/west fashion north of the area as upper level high pressure across the deep south strengthens and the flow locally becomes more zonal. Remaining mild Thursday night with overnight lows generally in the lower 50s.
1225 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
An approaching and weakening cold front is part of the cause for this precip, but we'll never see a good northwest wind shift behind this system Thursday. By this afternoon and into the early evening, a 50-60kt LLJ ahead of the cold front will be over the Mississippi River, pulling a greater fetch of Gulf moisture into the region. Onset of precip may be delayed a few hours due to a decent dry layer in the lowest 3km, but eventually the lowest levels will become saturated enough to support precip reaching the sfc by late tonight. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin building in from the west, and will continue to strengthen/amplify over our region going into the weekend.
Expect rain chances and gusty southerly winds to subside as the trough exits to the east tonight. Otherwise, look for anticyclonic flow to increase over the forecast area for Thursday resulting in drier and warmer conditions and less pressure gradient and wind.
Surface analysis late this morning places a warm front over portions of East Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and Louisiana. Southeasterly winds on the back side of high pressure are increasing slightly across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Currently, a warm front extended from east Texas across southwest Oklahoma and into southwest Kansas. This warm front will move east reaching western Arkansas by late this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the warm front with some of this activity reaching mainly western sections of the Mid-South especially during the afternoon hours.
Slush may briefly accumulate on the passes during heavier showers especially the higher passes such as Lost Trail and MacDonald passes but overall impact should be limited.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system in the upper Midwest will pass through tonight. The cold front will then move north back over our area as a warm front over the day and evening. Highs will be nearly 20F warmer than today, peaking in the low to mid-70s areawide.
On the 13Z surface map, high pressure has shifted east into NC allowing east-southeast flow to develop in the TN valley. High clouds well in advance of a high plains upper trough will increase through the day. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region late this work week, promoting warmer and mainly dry conditions. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge to the east of the area will win out and begin to amplify.
Clouds, mainly over the northern half of the CWA, will give way to mostly sunny skies this morning and into the afternoon before increasing moisture ahead of a large trough off the coast will increase clouds late this afternoon and overnight. Surface winds: SE-SW 10 kt or less increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho south of the Snake River Valley.
202 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
Temperatures were mostly in the lower 70s with south winds 10-20mph. After a few scattered morning showers on Thursday, high pressure will start to build throughout the atmosphere, and the high will become strong across the southeast states through the weekend. This will set us up for much warmer and rain-free conditions. Expect lows around 60 and highs climbing into the lower 80s.
It's been a cool and breezy day across the region, as we remain under the northwesterly flow associated with an upper level low exiting to the east through Southern Saskatchewan. There has been just enough instability for scattered flurries to occur over the central Rockies, and the higher terrain of central Montana. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures on Thursday, but also chances for showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity by Thursday afternoon.
The overall forecast remains on track as warm advection on the van of an midwestern trough/weak front extending from Canadian low pressure will hold overnight lows above the averages despite a relatively dry airmass and an evening clear sky. Thursday, showers will continue east as the aforementioned trough progresses. By afternoon, as the upper-level trough departs, subsidence and dry air will cut off the deep moisture and showers as winds veer westerly.
232 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports a deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains this weekend. Upper trough now moving over the region with the associated cold core supporting isold high based shra across the northern half. Partial clearing tonight with weak sfc ridging. Warmer air will begin to move back north with mild conds tomorrow across the southwest 2/3.
919 AM PDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cooler and breezy conditions will prevail through the end of the work week.
The combination of cloudy skies and warm advection will make low temperatures Thursday morning a few degrees warmer than today. Lows will range from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. High temperatures will be around five degrees warmer than today.
Much warmer conditions expected Thursday into the weekend. Heavy rainfall possible along a slow moving cold front. The frontal boundary over the area will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front.
351 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system approaches Thursday, with a cold front moving across late Thursday night.
1247 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Canadian high pressure over eastern North Carolina and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
As the warm front lifts and dryline retreats, it looks like Kansas will have the better chance for storms (supported by warm air advection), with perhaps some of this activity spilling over into northern Oklahoma.
Moisture flow around the low should start creeping back into our southeast zones by morning with stratus clouds increasing and perhaps some drizzle developing by morning. It could set up a scenario where it will be hard to get into the 70s for areas north of the warm front as the east winds and clouds could be socked in for much of the day. Storm chances should also stay low through much of the day with only a decent chance of storms by sunset through 03Z as the low level jet increases in central Kansas and Oklahoma. There is a least a minimal chance for thunderstorm development late in the day Thursday despite a less than robust west-southwesterly flow aloft well downstream of an upper level trough in the beginning stages of moving ashore into central/southern California.
1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 (The rest of today ) Late morning surface analysis depicts a cold front across central KS into the far northern TX panhandle, with a dryline extending across western OK. These features will shift east through the day, with the cold front/dryline combo stretching from northeast OK into south-central OK toward 00Z.
133 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cool high pressure continues to dominate, keeping the forecast dry for a little while. Lows will range from the mid 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. Ridging aloft will become better established and amplified across the SE States by the end of this period, with the upper high located across GA-SC_FL region and the ridge axis aloft west of the FA. Sfc ridging will extend across the FA from the high's center well offshore from the NE States Thu thru Thu night. Will see an overall warming trend Thu into Fri but may be temporarily interrupted from ridging from the North Fri into Fri night depending how much of an influence the airmass from the north becomes as ridging surges southward.
234 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 The axis of a broad upper level ridge is situated over Georgia as the short term period begins. Low- level winds have shifted to southeasterly on the back side of the high which will provide a gradual fetch of moisture from the Atlantic throughout today and Thursday. Have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for the remainder of this afternoon, as a result, blending in a mix of the latest MAV/MET and HRRR solutions. After a chilly start to the morning, temperatures are moderating underneath the ridge and mostly clear skies, and afternoon highs are expected to rise into the 70s across the majority of the area this afternoon.
153 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Shower chances return late tonight into Thursday in advance of a weak cold front. Showers associated with a weak cold front will push through the region late tonight into Thursday. A front tracking east across the Great Lakes will move a front across the lowlands to the mountains by the afternoon. NAM and ECMWF are in good alignment with the GFS an outlier this morning as it advertises a closed low north of the plains early Thursday morning.
The low level jet will increase tonight, and with decent southerly cross mountain flow overnight and a marginal vertical profile of temps and winds we may see some mountain wave enhancement of the winds across the higher elevations/foothills of the E TN mountains.
A little cooler across I-10 and the Heartland where low clouds lingered into the afternoon.
202 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Dry weather, along with mostly sunny skies is expected the remainder of today as high pressure will be in control.
(The rest of today ) Late morning surface analysis depicts a cold front across central KS into the far northern TX panhandle, with a dryline extending across western OK. These features will shift east through the day, with the cold front/dryline combo stretching from northeast OK into south-central OK toward 00Z.
143 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front from Eastern Oklahoma southeast into Southern Arkansas and Central Mississippi. Models indicate upper level ridging will gradually build into the Thursday into the upcoming weekend.
Along the backside of this low, parts of north central and central Montana experience continued gusty winds. - Fogleman It's been a cool and breezy day across the region, as we remain under the northwesterly flow associated with an upper level low exiting to the east through Southern Saskatchewan. There has been just enough instability for scattered flurries to occur over the central Rockies, and the higher terrain of central Montana. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures on Thursday, but also chances for showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity by Thursday afternoon.
Not overly sure how the boundary layer will develop overnight, but potential is there for a slight inversion that may keep the higher momentum air from getting transported down.
Despite the clouds, VFR conditions currently prevail across the region with the lowest clouds around 35k ft. /Tonight through Thursday Night/ Warmer than normal temperatures and conditions will make a return to the Ark-La-Tex now through the end of the week as surface ridging remains to our east. Until then, a warm frontal boundary that drifted northeast across the area, has reintroduced muggy conditions with dew points in the sticky 60s. Maximum temperatures will also be milder than normal, ranging from the lower 80s in northern zones to the upper 80s in southern zones. Synoptic features and disturbances will remain to our north and west with ridging aloft as well, keeping precipitation chances away from the area through the rest of the week.
331 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Mainly dry low pressure circulation moving through southern Saskatchewan has and continues to sustain strong and gusty surface winds across all of NE Montana.
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports a deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains this weekend. Upper trough now moving over the region with the associated cold core supporting isold high based shra across the northern half. Partial clearing tonight with weak sfc ridging. Warmer air will begin to move back north with mild conds tomorrow across the southwest 2/3.
903 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High high pressure will shift offshore overnight.
743 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will slide over the western Atlantic on Thursday.
/Issued 234 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022/ The axis of a broad upper level ridge is situated over Georgia as the short term period begins. Low- level winds have shifted to southeasterly on the back side of the high which will provide a gradual fetch of moisture from the Atlantic throughout today and Thursday. Have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for the remainder of this afternoon, as a result, blending in a mix of the latest MAV/MET and HRRR solutions. After a chilly start to the morning, temperatures are moderating underneath the ridge and mostly clear skies, and afternoon highs are expected to rise into the 70s across the majority of the area this afternoon.
Some light radar returns present across the Cumberland Plateau, but based on surface observations this is most likely just virga with very dry air still in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Will maintain the low end PoP chances to account for any rain that is able to overcome the dry air near the surface. The low level jet will increase tonight, and with decent southerly cross mountain flow overnight and a marginal vertical profile of temps and winds we may see some mountain wave enhancement of the winds across the higher elevations/foothills of the E TN mountains.
733 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system approaches Thursday, with a cold front moving across late Thursday night.
As the main upper trough comes in from the Pacific, showers will become more numerous in our CWA and with colder air aloft the chance of thunderstorms will also increase Thursday afternoon and evening.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that extended from the eastern Dakotas to the central Plains. High pressure was situated over the eastern Great Lakes. The initial band of showers due to isentropic lift will give way to lift from the cold front and increasing forcing from both FGEN and Q-G, thus showers to persist through the evening hours. The ridge of high pressure is expected to gradually build into the region on Thursday, bringing a gradual decrease in clouds. The pressure gradient is still a bit tight Thursday morning, thus we can still see some gusty west winds until the ridge approaches in the afternoon. Max temperatures for Thursday to range from the lower 50s north, middle 50s to lower 60s south.
603 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system approaches Thursday, with a cold front moving across late Thursday night.
SPC mesoanalysis had a large area of low to mid-level warm air advection and a corridor of high 850mb moisture transport over the Midwest, which were downstream of a 500mb trough axis situated over the Plains.
Otherwise, attention turns to the cold front that has sagged down into northeast Oklahoma, and will soon stall.
313 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Temperatures this afternoon are more seasonal behind yesterday's cold front. A transitory ridge will move in this evening as a strong trough digs across the West Coast. Accordingly, highs will peak around 15 degrees warmer than normal across these areas. While snow accumulations across the west will remain light through Thursday afternoon, snow will become steadier and heavier beginning Thursday night as the trough inches closer.
Changes for the eve update included sky cover adjustments the warm front extending from Canadian low pressure is traversing the region. Otherwise, clouds/warm advection on the van of an midwestern trough/weak front extending from that Canadian low will hold overnight lows above the averages. Thursday, showers will continue east as the aforementioned trough progresses. By afternoon, as the upper-level trough departs, subsidence and dry air will cut off the deep moisture and showers as winds veer westerly.
Cold front that moved through the area overnight now across eastern Nebraska and central Kansas this afternoon. Cold front over central Montana this afternoon that is moving south and could reach our northern counties this evening.
735 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High high pressure will shift offshore overnight.
323 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 An upper ridge will keep the forecast dry tonight. Heights fall Thursday and Thursday night as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. The best shot of precipitation will be over the higher terrain, but isolated to scattered showers should spread off the higher terrain and traverse across the plains. Snow levels will be on the high side these periods, and this should keep amounts somewhat reduced, but am still expecting several inches there.
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Temperatures this afternoon are more seasonal behind yesterday's cold front. A transitory ridge will move in this evening as a strong trough digs across the West Coast. Accordingly, highs will peak around 15 degrees warmer than normal across these areas. While snow accumulations across the west will remain light through Thursday afternoon, snow will become steadier and heavier beginning Thursday night as the trough inches closer.
1022 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Update The more widespread/persistent rain ahead of the approaching trough is now coming into the area and we can expect several hours of wet weather overnight.
Drier conditions evolve Thursday afternoon through the end of the workweek, with much warmer air building into the area for the weekend.
705 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Clouds are beginning to push into the western portions of the CWA ahead of a weak cold front.
1024 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system approaches Thursday, with a cold front moving across late Thursday night.
Expect lows in the low 60s inland, upper 60s along the coast, and low 70s for the coastal barrier islands. Broad high pressure across the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard will maintain a breezy/gusty ENE/E wind flow over Central FL.
Another quiet and enjoyable night across SoFlo with mild temperatures in the low-mid 60 inland and low 70s around the coast. Deep layer ridging and dry conditions will prevail through Thursday. Highs will generally peak in the low 80s along the east coast and upper 80s along the west coast both today and tomorrow. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the lower 60s across the western interior and Gulf coast, and into the lower 70s along the east coast.
This will allow for the continuation of a moisture resurgence in the lower levels of the atmosphere and a slow uptick in surface dew points and precipitable water across the area. In fact, the latest MFL sounding from 00z indicates the presence of moisture in the lower levels capped by a considerable slug of dry air in the mid levels. The breezy easterly winds will act to moderate temperatures along the Atlantic coast as high temperatures remain in the low 80s, elsewhere temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s with temperatures reaching close to 90 across SW Florida.
Reimer An upper ridge will keep the forecast dry tonight. Heights fall Thursday and Thursday night as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. The best shot of precipitation will be over the higher terrain, but isolated to scattered showers should spread off the higher terrain and traverse across the plains. Snow levels will be on the high side these periods, and this should keep amounts somewhat reduced, but am still expecting several inches there.
/issued 309 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022/ High pressure centered near the Carolina coastline. Low pressure was over southern Kansas with a dryline into west Texas.
An upper trough just off the coast on Thursday will move inland on Friday.
Showers will progress eastward across the region into the late afternoon hours as a trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. Clouds should begin to scatter out and diminish behind the showers as high pressure approaches from the west. High pressure and clear skies will raise temperatures above average by afternoon. Later in the day, clouds reenter with an approaching warm front.
Favorable alignment between the largely southerly wind vectors and terrain will be the driving mechanism behind this activity, thus leading to the highly localized nature of the fog/drizzle addition. The combination of cloudy skies and warm advection will make low temperatures Thursday morning a few degrees warmer than today. Lows will range from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. High temperatures will be around five degrees warmer than today.
1132 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure builds over the area into tonight, moving offshore toward Thursday morning. A weakening frontal system approaches Thursday, with a cold front moving across late Thursday night.
336 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A weakening frontal system approaches the region today, with a cold front moving across the area late tonight.
A short wave trough will pass to the north leading to high pressure building over the region. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds today, limiting high temperature growth to the low to mid 80s.