Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For this evening, kept the highest pops farther west as models prog the better low level convergence to be across the western CWA this evening. From 06Z-12Z time frame, have spread the higher pops farther east as strong low level convergence is progd to develop along the coast. The higher pops then shift slightly northward Monday. Models keep a diffluent flow aloft across the area and a mid level shear axis/trough just to the northwest tonight and Monday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 92 73 92 / 10 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 71 91 / 10 30 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 90 69 89 / 20 40 20 30.
the approaching trough will be sufficient to spread some broad lift across all of North Texas through midday Monday. However, along the boundary in East Texas, where the atmosphere has been unimpeded by rain, the low-level instability is sufficient for afternoon development. As deep moisture returns, an increase in areal coverage of daytime convection is expected, aided by approaching mid-latitude troughing in the mid-levels.
the h5 trough was over the upper great lakes and extended southwestward toward northern Missouri. Monday night the trough digs farther south with scattered thunderstorms affecting areas along and north of I80.
1130 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 At 3 PM, a trough of low pressure extended from Green Bay to the Quad Cities. The combination of temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower and mid 60s resulted in surface-based CAPES of around 1000 J/kg. 5C/km, and weak surface moisture convergence resulted in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of this trough. With high pressure nearly over head, the light winds (5 knots or less) will extend from the surface to 600 mb.
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A cold front will pass south of our region tonight, bringing an end to the shower activity.
Water vapor imagery shows a nice tropical fetch of moisture from the Tx Gulf Coast, northeastward into the lower Ohio river valley. Over the ensuing 24-48 hours, we'll see waves of low pressure eject and ride along the nearly stationary surface frontal boundary that extends across SEMO/SRN IL/SWIN, where our current FFA resides.
A Tutt low in the north central Gulf will combine with a deep layer ridge just north of the area to provide a moist and unstable southeast flow. A weak coastal trough will continue to produce a few showers mainly across the coastal waters. Prevailing ESE winds will develop tonight and persist through Thu as high pressure axis dominates north of the local waters. Fri winds veer southerly as the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters as a mean layer trough approaches the eastern seaboard.
The cold frontal boundary and bulk of the rain remains well off to the northwest this afternoon. To our southeast, a ridge is strengthening and pushing in higher heights into Eastern Kentucky. The muggy and hot weather will continue through the short term period with afternoon highs hitting the upper 80s tomorrow, with morning lows only dipping into the low 70s.
00Z upper air analysis places a weak upper level low over Arkansas this evening.
The latest runs of the HRRRX aren't too excited about precip coverage on the western side of the low track, so have trended pops down some for tonight.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms to start the week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week.
This trend to continue tonight as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across the area. Monday south return flow set up and brings in plenty of low level moisture and warmer temperatures.
For Monday, the flow aloft over deep south Texas looks to become more easterly as the upper trough to our north creeps just a bit farther south toward us.
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front oscillating across western Ohio, as high pressure lingers off East Coast. Have highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 today and tomorrow across the lowlands.
Meanwhile, weak high pressure will reside at the surface, and provide light winds and mostly clear conditions once showers dissipate early this evening. Weak high pressure will remain over the region. Monday Night Through Sunday High pressure will keep dry weather in place early in the week, as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest.
However, An upper level trough moving into the Texas Panhandle will likely pull moisture back northward into the area later tonight and Monday morning.
These values indicate that there is ample instability in place just above the low level cold pool induced by the rainfall just before launch.
/issued 352 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Scattered showers continue this afternoon across the southeastern forecast area along the remnants of a cold front. Low level moisture return will also result in increased cloud cover and continued cooler temperatures Monday, as well. Rain and cooler temperatures expected this week.
1238 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. The ridge will weaken late this week allowing increasing moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms back into the region. The lower levels may be slightly drier tonight, and there should once again be a low-level jet and associated mixing.
1044 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Low pressure along the coast will move east into the Maritimes overnight.
/issued 352 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Scattered showers continue this afternoon across the southeastern forecast area along the remnants of a cold front. Low level moisture return will also result in increased cloud cover and continued cooler temperatures Monday, as well.
Large area of high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains and the Northern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Monday will be a bit warmer.
southwestern periphery of the bermuda ridge is currently building into the area and this is forecast to continue over the next day. overnight lows in the lower 70s over the interior ranging to near 80 along the beaches. a tad warmer inland.
The short term progs are in good agreement with this trough slowly drifting back N a bit overnight. These areas likely will remain the favored areas for additional convection development/heavy rainfall as a weak upper trough axis becomes stationary over the region by Monday night.
1000 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. The ridge will weaken late this week allowing increasing moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms back into the region. Strong convection at 02z in the CSRA associated with short wave trough lifting northwest from east Georgia.
Dry air and surface ridging will allow temperatures to fall dramatically again tonight mostly in the 60s with 50s in the southwestern Texas Panhandle.
430 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure will remain in control through the middle of the week, keeping conditions dry with temperatures well above average. Temperatures will lower slightly by the end of the week as the high pressure area weakens. Upper Ridge along a east to west axis across Southern and Central CA will gradually break down over the upcoming week.
1203 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Low pressure along the coast will move east into the Maritimes overnight.
/issued 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Water vapor imagery continues to show the upper level low lifting north over Arkansas this afternoon. with the surface reflection of the low still over Texarkana area. This upper level low will accelerate northward and become absorbed into the longwave trough by tonight. the longwave trough barely moves over the next several days due to a blocking high over the southeast. migrating ever so slightly throughout the week with the position of the longwave trough.
Overall, moisture is marginal with surface dewpoints in the low 50s. South Dakota convection may disrupt the low level jet into southern North Dakota tonight, which may limit intensity of storms in North Dakota, aided further by anvil shading. This low level moisture convergence field sets up between Dickinson and Bowman. Per latest operational and experimental HRRR composite reflectivity forecast, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating between Hettinger to Bismarck and south to Selfridge between 21z Sunday and 00z Monday.
749 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. The ridge will weaken late this week allowing increasing moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms back into the region.
At the surface, low pressure is in place in Colorado with several weak trough axis extending over our CWA. Highs should reach the lower 90s for many locations, and warmer end of guidance supports mid 90s based on mixing layer temperatures.
Expect another warm/mild night with temps falling down into the lower 70s.
Temps a little warmer, upper 80s to mid 90s, until the storms develop and bring an increase of clouds. The better moisture/instability along/east of highway 83 with a chance for some severe storms (marginal risk from SPC) however storms may hold off until after peak so afternoon pops on the low side.
Otherwise, the slow-moving low pressure system will remain to the south of the area, tracking along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Otherwise, increasing cirrus will overspread the area on Monday, and with the thicker cloud canopy and continued northeasterly winds aiding CAA, high temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees cooler than today.
A weak upper level low pressure system will move into the Great Basin on Monday and will remain over the area through midweek. The mid level ridge is centered overhead this evening with the weak closed low crossing nrn CA. Increasing lift ahead of the closed low is generating mid level cloudiness across ern NV and wrn UT with a few very weak echoes on radar. The low enters the Great Basin overnight and opens up on Mon with weak potions of it crossing UT. Expect a microburst threat from this across much of the CWA thru tomorrow eve as the low levels will not moisten up very much. Locally gusty southwest winds will also be possible across the western valleys tomorrow ahead of an approaching closed low with local critical fire weather conditions due to winds and low RH.
Upper ridge has built into the area and flattened out this afternoon. Will keep low PoPs going this evening as a cold front crosses southern Montana. Will keep low PoPs in as a theta e ridge is progged over western into central zones. Would expect the east to be limited in activity with a theta e trough sliding into southeast Montana.
615 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 At 3 PM, a trough of low pressure extended from Green Bay to the Quad Cities. The combination of temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower and mid 60s resulted in surface-based CAPES of around 1000 J/kg. 5C/km, and weak surface moisture convergence resulted in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of this trough. With high pressure nearly over head, the light winds (5 knots or less) will extend from the surface to 600 mb.
Warm, moist air looks possible ahead of a low pressure system with MU-CAPE values around 2K J/KG.
The upper low that has been responsible for the afternoon scattered shra/tsra the past few days will continue to shift northward through Arkansas and should open up tonight.
Despite this, some of the high resolution models continue to bring some pcpn into eastern ND late tonight. Highest threat for showers and t-storms is Monday night just ahead of the front and short wave trough.
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A very nice evening across the 4 state region as high pressure gradually shifts east. Temperatures this evening will settle back into the lower 70s around sunset with dew points in the 50s. Ahead of this wave the low and mid level winds will turn to a more southwesterly direction which will advect warmer and more moist air into central South Dakota. Highs should mainly average the lower 80s in southwest Minnesota to the lower 90s in south central SD.
/Issued 519 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Cloud cover today should decrease overnight as drier air filters into the mid-levels as the ridge builds into the area.
Latest model guidance shifts the heavy rain axis northward across east central Illinois, as the next wave of low pressure tracks northeast out of southern Missouri.
Storm system that has brought flooding rains to portions of the northern Gulf Coast is now centered just west of the Mississippi River and beginning to shift northward ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s are expected.
Latest run of the HRRR shows isolated thunderstorms may linger through 09Z over southeast Oregon, but other models keep isolated thunderstorms south of the forecast area as a weak upper level low moves east over northern Nevada.
1254 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Offshore high pressure/inland trough pattern will continue over the area through the middle of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest late week with increasing rain chances.
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A cold front will pass south of our region tonight, bringing an end to the shower activity.
Temps should peak in the low 90s for most places this afternoon and rain coverage will be in the 10-30 percent range. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. Wx maps showed a strong Bermuda high pressure extending into Mid Tn from the east, while stacked low pressure continued to produce copious rainfall over the lower Ms Valley. An axis of deep moisture extended from the low pressure, up into the Mid Ms Valley and Oh Valley along a stalled front. Our far northwest areas, including Waverly and Dover, will be closer to the axis of deep moisture and the low pressure system, resulting in greater coverage at times. Persistence will work for temperature forecasts, with lows mostly in the lower 70s and highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. An upper level trough will continue to move away from the region. At the sfc, High Plains lee troughing will strengthen.
932 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Main changes to the going forecast were to lower into the slight chance POPS for our Delta as the surface and mid-level low pressure slowly gets picked up along the stalled frontal boundary/trough to our north as upper ridging is slowly nosing in from the east. Also in water vapor a decent upper low with mid-level drying is spinning over the Florida panhandle, which is shown to move west.
751 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The subtropical ridge of high pressure remains oriented over northern Florida, with generally easterly winds in place across the forecast area. High pressure will hold north of the coastal waters through the start of the weekend, with generally easterly flow continuing.
753 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night.
The large scale weather pattern will evolve some through the period, but things will remain unsettled as we see southwest upper flow become more zonal, but with an embedded upper trough over north central US/southern Canada by Thursday/Friday time frame.
High pressure centered over Alabama will gradually weaken over the next several days as an upper trof over the central plains states shifts slightly eastward and an upper low lifts northwest towards the Carolinas.
Weak height falls will overspread the Panhandles late this afternoon and evening in advance of a trough over Colorado/New Mexico.
Afternoon development of convection over the higher terrain Friday may move close to the TAF sites late in the day.
Therefore, any surfaced based storm this afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear. More chances for thunderstorms will occur later Friday afternoon/evening, as an upper trough lifts slowly out over Kansas from the west.
Some light MVFR fog is possible to reduce vis after 09Z however, should the high clouds currently blanketing the mid-state thin or clear out, more dense fog is likely, especially at KCKV.
This will leave a clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft into tonight. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Convection today so far has been suppressed by subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface convergence. Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower Michigan. The ridge currently over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through this evening. The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with weak mid level ridging moving back in.
Upper low and surface reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/ Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country.
630 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Warm front was located across northeast Kansas at 19z with a large area of convection blooming on either side of the front.
New development is also expected across southwest MO along a weak warm front and also along an outflow boundary left over from the morning convective complex. GKS A better potential for widespread showers/storms is expected on Friday and Friday night as the upper level trough now over the southwest US approaches our area. The high temperatures will be cooler on Friday due to the cloud cover and widespread and potentially long lasting precipitation.
This convection (some thunderstorms severe) is developing ahead of 1002 mb low pressure in far southeast CO with its frontal boundary extending northeast across central KS and nw Iowa.
Instability is highest in the Highway 20 corridor, where capping is also weakest, so expect that this area has the best potential to see severe activity this evening. Large hail to 2 inches and gusts to 65 mph will be possible if any storms do creep into our southern border, the highway 20 corridor, this evening.
Very little change in the overall pattern through Friday as an upper level ridge axis remains across the area. This will maintain the hot and dry conditions with occasional bouts of mid and high clouds spilling over the ridge. Coastal areas will likely bottom out in the low 70s.
with continued ridging aloft and at sfc. Upper low and surface reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/ Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country.
935 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend.
609 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 00Z TAF Cycle A dryline will remain across the eastern Panhandles this evening as a cold front pushes south and east across the three TAF sites around 05Z to 08Z Friday. Southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts will veer around to the west 5 to 15 knots following the passage of the cold front later tonight.
613 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers and thunderstorms developed across the forecast area as a low pressure system moved over the four corners today. By late evening the chance for thunderstorms will quickly end as the low center shifts east. On Friday, a transient high pressure ridge will move overhead. Temperatures will warm a little on Friday as the high pressure moves overhead. The long wave trough will reload along the west coast during the weekend as the next low pressure disturbance develops over southern California. Models show this low weakening as it gradually tracks east early in the work week. As both of these features head east, high pressure will develop along the west coast. Then the west coast ridge will strengthen and move into the Great Basin for warmer and drier conditions midweek and beyond.
Temperatures as of 2 pm were in the 70s to the lower 80s with dew points in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. will be seeing a closed low over the 4-corners region slowly open and move east into Central Plains. Deepening/moist southerly flow into the area with embedded weak troughs expected to result in a general increase in shower/thunderstorm activity. look for highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points increasing into the low/middle 60s for a rather humid day.
based on warm front and additional moisture/energy arriving after midnight. Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front.
This will leave a clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft into tonight. The exception extends from the Tri-Cities into the northern thumb, where a low level trough/convergence axis emanating from a wave to the north continues to focus pockets of showers and brief/isolated thunder. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Convection today so far has been suppressed by subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface convergence. Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower Michigan. The ridge currently over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through this evening. The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with weak mid level ridging moving back in.
Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low Friday afternoon.
1151 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Warm front was located across northeast Kansas at 19z with a large area of convection blooming on either side of the front.
The exception extends from the Tri-Cities into the northern thumb, where a low level trough/convergence axis emanating from a wave to the north continues to focus pockets of showers and brief/isolated thunder. This will leave a clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft into tonight. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Convection today so far has been suppressed by subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface convergence. Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower Michigan. The ridge currently over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through this evening. The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with weak mid level ridging moving back in.
thick clouds and some rain cooled air had southeast Texas temperatures reeling back into the lowers 80s south to the uppers 70s interior southeast Texas. The upper flow was southwesterly aloft ahead of a broad trough which covered much of the southwest United States. A disturbance ejected out of the main trough was now moving into the Houston region. the highest pops looks to be across interior southeast Texas.
Another left over outflow boundary/warm front extended along Interstate 70. Very moist airmass was noted across much of the area with dew points in the low to mid 70s. 18Z Topeka sounding shows steeps lapse rates, Mlcape of 1200 J/kg and good turning in the lower levels with storm relative helicity of 330 m2s2. Main upper trough will move out into the Plains on Friday with another round of storms expected initially in the morning then with refireing in the afternoon hours. Convergence along the boundary is weaker in the low levels in the afternoon.
Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, though the proximity of the ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated coverage. Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.