Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon temperatures will be quite warm today, topping off in the low 90s for many low to mid elevation valleys. Today may be one of those prime days, as a weak upper level trough swings northward into Canada.
A modest monsoonal pattern will set up as the upper high shifts into OK and strengthen Mon afternoon. Rose Tue and Wed an upper level ridge wl be over the central U. , with an upper trof over the Pacific NW. This wl leave the forecast area on the western edge of the upper high and there wl be a stream of mstr working its way into the wrn half of CO from the south. For Thu and thru the weekend, the upr ridge centered wl shift westward and wl be more ovr CO and NM, with not as much mstr being drawn up into the forecast area.
334 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge amplifying into the nrn rockies. Short wave trof ahead of the ridge is moving through the nrn plains with isold convection ongoing from just east of the Blkhls into scntrl SD. Upper ridge shifts ewd into the nrn plains with thermal profiles suggesting temps will rise into the 90s across much of the cwfa. Short wave moving into the ridge later in the day will result in sct convection developing from nern WY through the Blkhls into swrn SD. Thermal ridge builds ewd into the cwfa with temps pushing well into the 90s to lower 100s. Upper level ridge of high pressure will be well established across the central CONUS by mid-week, with very hot and mainly dry conditions expected.
Upper trough off the PAC NW coast is continuing to deepen which will provide for slightly cooler daytime temperatures across our area today as heights and thicknesses continue to lower. Little change in temperatures is expected across our area on Tuesday with model consensus indicating an upper trough off the western CONUS coast and a large upper ridge centered over the south central CONUS.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal flow aloft with high pressure centered southeast of the region. The flow aloft will transition to more northwesterly through the short term period as ridging amplifies across the Midwest. Weak perturbations moving through this flow will set the stage for storms and/or a couple of possible MCS's to develop and move through the lower Ohio Valley.
A combination of cooler temperature aloft, increasing shear and surface dew point temperatures nearing 50F provide ample instability for a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon.
activity should slowly come to an end towards sunrise as the low-level jet weakens with time. Today will mark Day 2 of the ongoing heat wave as upper ridging continues to build across the Nation's midsection. Highs this afternoon will reach well into the lower to middle 90s with low 70 degree dewpoints yielding afternoon heat indicies near or slightly above the 100 degrees in many areas. Will have to watch across the far north as lingering cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees cooler than areas south of Route 36 but it should still feel oppressive considering the added moisture from this morning's rainfall. best forcing from the low-level jet will remain north and west of our area. upper ridge to become well-entrenched across the Heartland with latest GFS standardized anomalies suggesting 500 hPa heights 2-3 standard deviations above normal.
The wet pattern comes as a result of different outflow boundaries moving across the area in addition of the proximity of a cold front and a mid-level trough shear axis.
357 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Changes to Forecast -- Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the lower Straits of Florida. An expansive deep layer mean anticyclone is building westward and southwestward, while a weak upper low drifts westward over the Florida Peninsula. Also, the upper low, which actually extends down into the middle troposphere, may enhance the convection through steepened lapse rates and a favorable outflow pattern aloft.
Deep layer ridging is progged to strengthen and continue to build across the CWA with the exit of a mid level low that brought flooding rains to Louisiana today. 1 inches with the higher amounts across SE AL and western FL panhandle which is more than sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and storms today.
/issued 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ Scattered thunderstorms expected to continue near the Red River Valley of southern OK and northern TX through sunrise near zone of enhanced moisture on tail-end of mid-level trough that will slowly progress east and southeast through the day. In response to passage of mentioned trough. low level ridge will build over region and yield moderate north and northeast winds today. Although dry bulb temperatures will be much cooler than we have seen the past several weeks.
This will help boost temperatures there to the lower 80s. A weak cold front is currently making its way southeast across the forecast area. It should be slightly cooler and less humid behind the front today, which includes roughly the northwest 2/3 of the forecast area.
An upper level ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean is expected to intensify through tomorrow, bringing higher heights into Eastern Kentucky. This ridge will act as a block and keep an upper level trough and associated cold frontal boundary, currently shifting into the Mississippi Valley, northwest of the area through the short term period. The cold frontal boundary/PVA is expected to shift a bit north on Sunday as higher heights build into the region. That being said, decided to undercut the model pops and trend more towards the high-res convective model diurnal solutions. Temperatures overnight will remain mild with lows only dipping into the lower 70s, potentially breaking another max low record at Jackson.
By the afternoon, as the low that continues to plague the area slowly moves west, rainfall should begin to taper off. A frontal boundary stalling north of the area will keep moisture levels on the high side and allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day through the work week. Conditions should continue to slowly improve late today or more so tonight as the low pressure system moves away.
Thereafter expect high pressure over the region to bring a fairly tranquil weather period through mid-week with plenty of sun and temperatures hovering around 90 each day.
616 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A cold front across NW Indiana will move slowly across the forecast area overnight and stall south of the forecast area Sunday.
/Issued 1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over nwrn LA with a frontal boundary stretching across sern MO, north central AR, and into nern TX.
A broad weak upper level trough persists from the central Canadian prairies into eastern Texas. This was between two areas of upper level ridging over the western and eastern ends of North America. Across the central High Plains, weak low pressure at the surface was located over northeast Colorado. Dry conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week as upper level ridging continues from the central Rockies into the central High Plains.
Height rises and warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday as a Bermuda ridge builds westward.
/issued 257 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ Upper level northwest flow has set in behind the passage of the trough axis presently over the Central Plains.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): upper pattern shift slowly getting underway as we begin to transition from dominant high pressure centered over northeast Mexico to that of lower pressure aloft as an upper trough/shear axis moves to settle over south TX from the north. Currently, waves of thick low/mid clouds continue to attempt to push into the northwest portion of the forecast area in association with the upper trough over central TX. Overnight tonight, moisture will increase across the Rio Grande Valley as the upper high to our west continues to nudge westward and the upper trough/shear axis creeps closer from the north.
Temperatures were mostly in the lower 80s. Late morning maps showed low pressure staked over Louisiana bringing torrential rain and flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast. A front extended from Lower Michigan down to the lower Ms Valley.
we're still dealing with a trough moving through with a little positive vorticity advection, aiding in the popcorn showers and thunderstorms developing today. High pressure over the area tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 once again.
(Issued 1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016) A rather soupy airmass remains in place across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with dewpoints creeping upward into the lower/middle 70s. An area of low pressure aloft that influenced our weather earlier this week is still parked over Srn LA/SW MS this morning, providing copious amounts of rainfall there - leading to significant flash flooding for those locations. A cold front is to the NW over parts of the Mid-MS River Valley, but most of that forcing will remain well N of N AL/Srn Middle TN.
Strong high pressure continues to result in hot and dry weather across the interior of NorCal. Current temperatures are running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago and are nearing the century mark at many locales across the Central Valley.
Warmer temperatures will arrive Sunday. Low pressure will cross the region midweek. With sunshine over southwest NH near and south of the proximity of the backdoor cold front, temperatures have soared through the 80s allowing for rapid destabilization today. As we head into the start of the week a 500mb high pressure remains firmly anchored off of the east coast of North America.
With warmer temperatures today, tonight should likely be a few degrees warmer in some locations. Warmer temperatures based on progged thicknesses and 700 mb temperatures.
A Broad upper level trough will slowly move east across the upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes. Surface dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, which will cause the heat index to be the same as the ambient temperatures during the afternoon hours. Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 60s. By Sunday, the upper level trough and associated surface front have pushed east and south of the area. An area of high pressure over northeast Kansas will move east throughout the day which will provide dry conditions and light winds throughout the day.
222 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A diffuse cold front is into the Trans Pecos while the primary mid/upper level theta-e ridge axis has shifted s of I-20.
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the weekend as a weakening cold front slowly approaches.
Thus, the lowest highs for today will be in the west as well.
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 (Tonight and Sunday) Drier air was moving in behind a cold front that has pushed through West Central Texas. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s as cooler and drier air filters in, especially across the Big Country and northern Concho Valley. The cooler temperatures will be over southern and eastern sections where more moisture and clouds prevail.
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 At 3 PM, a cold front extended from Oscoda Michigan (KOSC) to West Plains Missouri (KUNO). Dew points ahead of this cold front were in the lower and mid-70s. Meanwhile northwest surface winds in the wake of this front has lowered the dew points in the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the lower to mid-60s, so definitely more comfortable than the last couple of days. The combination of this instability and a mid- to upper level trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (primarily over western Minnesota) have developed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. On Sunday, high pressure will build across the region.
With an upper level ridge in place over the western U. and the main trough axis sweeping through the northern and central plains today and tonight, northwest flow is in place over the forecast area. This northwest flow will bring a short wave trough aloft through the area between 00Z-06Z.
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Quiet weather for the short term as high pressure continues to move in from the northern plains as an upper trof slides across the midwest. Lows in the middle 60s tonight followed by highs in the 80s again tomorrow, a degree or so warmer than today as flow shifts around to the SE.
Significant shallowing of the marine layer has occurred however, as has warming of the air mass above, as the axis of the upper level ridge shifts through our district. As a result, temperatures this afternoon around the bays are generally running 4 to 8 degs warmer than yesterday, and locally quite a bit more.
High pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and above normal temps today. Afternoon high temps will climb into the 90s across the region and also approach the century mark over some locations in the lower columbia basin. An approaching trough of low pressure will cause increasing westerly flow and surface winds will become breezy in the eastern Columbia River Gorge and portions of the Lower Columbia Basin in Oregon this evening, and again on Sunday.
Strong tropical plume continues to be driven northward from the low over Louisiana. Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the lower 80s outside of the rainy areas, with upper 70s south of I-70 where the rain will be more prevalent.
A cold front was pushing slowly toward central Arkansas from the northwest early this morning.
Weak upper ridge pushing into the area today helped bring welcomed sunshine across the area. But upper flow will flatten and a subtle trough will move into the area Sunday.
NW flow aloft across the Rocky Mt region as the upper trough axis has passed well to the east, but another upper disturbance was crossing northeastern Montana this morning. Convection will begin again over the higher terrain, then will slowly spread across the adjacent plains through the afternoon.
There may be some weak frontogenesis from secondary cold front extending from northeast to central Wisconsin. Weak high pressure to the west will move into the region Sunday, bringing dry conditions and a warm day. 925 mb temperatures suggest lows tonight dropping into the lower to middle 60s in most areas, with lower 80s on Sunday.
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 At 3 PM, a cold front extended from Oscoda Michigan (KOSC) to West Plains Missouri (KUNO). Dew points ahead of this cold front were in the lower and mid-70s. Meanwhile northwest surface winds in the wake of this front has lowered the dew points in the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the lower to mid-60s, so definitely more comfortable than the last couple of days. The combination of this instability and a mid- to upper level trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (primarily over western Minnesota) have developed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. On Sunday, high pressure will build across the region.
Surface ridging on Sunday will edge temperatures down a few degrees for the afternoon hours keeping temperatures near or below seasonal averages. West Texas will be under influence of a slowly building mid level ridge ridge from the southwest early in the upcoming week with relatively dry northeast to east low level flow.
128 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Temperatures above normal as high pressure moves closer. Late in the forecast period, Thu/Fri and beyond, models continue to indicate upper trough, surface front, and increasing moisture progressing eastward into our region.
Other areas to focus will be on higher terrain of Palmer Divide and CYS ridge. Temperatures today will be 3-6 degrees warmer as 700MB temperatures rise about 2C over yesterday. An upper ridge will build over the state Sunday to bring mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures. There may be a few isolated storms over the high country and the Palmer Divide, but should generally be weak.
Forecast continues to indicate 30 POPS near the coast and 40-50 over the interior with the highest coverage in the late afternoon west of I-4. Highs in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast and in the lower 90s across the interior.
This was occuring generally just south of the 700mb trough stretched out from St. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s and are expected to top out in the low 80s under cloud cover to the middle 80s where the sun shines today. The track of the low will ultimately determine how far to the northwest the rain bands make it.
fairly typical near mid August afternoon with temperatures around 80 or in the lower 80s. Diurnally driven cumulus overhead, and widely scattered convection over portions of Minnesota into northern Iowa will diminish with sunset leaving behind mainly clear skies tonight, as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will continue to build into the region Sunday. Highs may be a touch cooler in some areas due to lighter winds and limited mixing, with readings generally from around 80 to near 85F.
A strong U/L ridge over the central Atlantic will maintain a ridge axis across the southeast U.
Modest warming is expected for today reflecting further development of the upper level ridge of high pressure a and additional compression of the marine layer. Then on Sunday, an upper level trough will approach the Northern California coast, resulting in renewed deepening of the marine layer and increase in the onshore winds and coastal stratus.
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 The inverted trough that has been over the forecast area today has triggered an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Min temperatures this morning upstream in this airmass were in the low -mid 50s, and the bias corrections to the models support this same temperature range. Sunday the trough shifts even farther east and a weak ridge of high pressure builds in.
For Sunday, a broad and flat upper high will move into the central Rockies with drier air advecting into our counties from the west. Humidities look to drop into the low teens across this area Sunday afternoon with wind gusts possibly in the 20-25 mph range.
In the short term tonight, the upper low pressure area well to the southwest of the forecast area will continue its slow wobble westward. The forecast area being well to the northeast of the upper low should result in the shra/tsra being more diurnal in nature. For Sunday, the forecast area will still be under the effect of the upper low, so will continue with chance pops in northwest Alabama and will trend toward slight chance probabilities mainly east of Interstate 65.
Max temps will be cooler over the next couple of days.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indciates a closed low along the NW Gulf Coast with an upper level ridge across the Western Atlantic. 8 inch range but the upper level ridge continues to be the main influence across the area. This light mixing will also keep overnight lows up into the low to mid 70s. For Sunday, the cold front makes little progress to the southeast as the upper level ridge to the east holds strong. The influece of the upper level ridge and subsidence aloft should keep thunderstorm activity isolated to scattered at best.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs only warming into the low to mid 80s in most locations.
247 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the weekend as a weakening cold front slowly approaches.
Upper level ridging will keep Montana dry and warm today. VFR and fair weather will persist through at least 18Z/Sun as a high pressure ridge remains in control over North-Central and Southwest Montana.
Models in agreement with a fairly weak area of high pressure over the region through at least mid-week. This will be followed by an equally weak upper trough for the remainder of the upcoming work week. Temperatures may return to just above seasonal normals with max temperatures rising to the low to mid 90s be the end of the week.
This would give the highest rain chances for Randolph, Lawrence, Clay, and Greene Counties in Arkansas. Lots of Coordination tonight among surrounding WFO's and WPC regarding rainfall totals and the placement of the highest accumulation. Lows will be mostly in the low to middle 70s.
Because some of the low level moisture may be slow to exit, falling temperatures may allow some light fog to develop. With some drier air at the surface and slightly warmer mid level temperatures a cap should be in place on Sunday, so not expecting any isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Otherwise, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today.
338 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016 High pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will dominate the short term producing a warm and dry NW flow.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Great Basin through the weekend.
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Temperatures above normal as high pressure moves closer. Region to remain under the influence of the Bermuda High with plenty of moisture in the low levels.
There is a sfc trof along the sern edge of the CWA. With the approaching upper trof, this same region is under the equatorward entrance region of the ULJ and is co-located with the best low level moisture convergence. As for temps, with the cdfnt still moving into the region, have trended twd the warmer guidance for today. However, trended cooler for much of the area tonight with less clouds or rain helping to cool.
Thus far, Walnut Ridge has received around a quarter of an inch. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees where rain doesn't occur otherwise temperatures will be cooler.
Warmer temperatures from the Great Basin will be drawn north to Idaho ahead of this disturbance, bumping afternoon highs 2 to 5 degrees.
Transitory ridge over the northern Rockies will flatten but progress east Sunday into western and central ND.
No significant changes this morning to the forecast as isolated to scattered pops are starting to develop and move across the high country. High pressure will build over the west coast and into the Great Basin today keeping a northerly mid level flow over Arizona.
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A trough over the central U. There is a southern portion of this trough located across Louisiana and eastern Texas. While just east of the Plains gets inundated, the Central Plains will remain under high pressure. Primary focus - Possible precipitation across southeast Kansas dependent on movement low pressure system. A relief in the heat and humidity is in store with temperatures dropping just a couple of degrees below seasonal normals of the lower 90s and drier air moving into the area. As mentioned in the synopsis section, the ridge is expected to stay in place through the short term. There is a question to the track of the southern extent of the low pressure system positioned over Louisiana and Texas.
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 High pressure remains off east coast. Cold front stalls over the Ohio River Valley today, lingers into midweek with the unsettled conditions persisting. Synoptically not a whole lot has changed from the last few days, as high pressure remains locked in place to our east. A cold front is starting to sink into the Lower Ohio River Valley. The high pressure system will impede the front and it should stall out across the lower Ohio River valley slanting up through western or central Ohio.
/issued 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ Upper trough passing over the Central Plains will continue to push east but a weakness will remain in the upper ridge over TX and NM for a few days. This trough has pushed a weak cold front into the area that will result in cooler wx and an increase in rain chances through the weekend.
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A cold front across NW Indiana will move slowly across the forecast area overnight and stall south of the forecast area Sunday.
An exiting upper level trough will allow for northwest flow to become the dominate pattern over the northern plains through Sunday.