Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRIER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50F OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50F WITH A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL IL BY DAWN TUE.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NE/KS. BUT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO FILL. POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN PLACES THAT SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
134 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY.
RATHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODEL RUNS INDICATING A BIT OF FOG IN WARMER RIVER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF I29 ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF I29 THAT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHILE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.
359 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. THE DRY AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SIZABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WHILE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE ESE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS SRN IDAHO HELPING TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA EARLIER TODAY. A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER OFF-SHORE AS IT TAKES UP A POSITION OFF THE NW COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TODAY HAS WARMED UP THE AIR MASS AND SHRUNK THE MARINE LYR TO AROUND 1200'. PROFILERS AND SURFACE OBS TRENDING WARMER BY 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS SO EVERYTHING IS POINTING TOWARDS A WARMER DAY TODAY AND THE FORECAST APPROPRIATELY REFLECTS THAT.
354 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE STATE TODAY. COULD BE TRICKY EXACTLY HOW FAR SE THE DRY COOLER AIR GETS.
655 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
426 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEARLY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SUN TO YIELD AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TUESDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH.
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTENDED WEST TO SRN CALIFORNIA AND EAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE HIGH. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE LP OF MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS. A SECONDARY SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SWD TO THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST.
Precip will remain absent across western Kansas through early Tuesday as short range models indicate a weak northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a building upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. Warmer low temperatures are likely tonight as prevailing southerlies in the lower levels draw slightly warmer air northward into western Kansas. Highs are expected mainly up into the lower to mid 90s(F) with a few upper 80s(F) still possible in central Kansas. An outside chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central Kansas late Tuesday night as an upper level jet max crests the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies and dives southeast into the Central Plains.
305 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ MOST OF THIS WEEK THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST AND STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE SHOULD SEE DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE N/NE BY WEDS. THEN SPREADING INLAND SUN/MON AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES IN OFF THE GULF.
THIS BAND HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND ANYTHING THAT MAY REACH THE NORTHEAST WILL NOT LAST LONG AS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH IOWA REMAINING ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THERMAL TROF HOLDING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED OVER NORTH TEXAS.
606 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DEVELOPING AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST HOW DIFFUSE THE COLD FRONT IS. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
255 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 As a vortex in the Great Lakes area ejects into ern Canada, and a swrn CONUS mid level ridge begins to expand ewd this week, the PAH forecast area will remain under dry nwrly to nrly flow aloft, and high pressure at the sfc. The upper air pattern over our region will become a bit divergent by Wed night while the low level winds remain mostly out of the north to ne. Perhaps a few clouds Wed night may help to hold the lows up a few degrees higher than previous nights.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
304 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO CYCLE THE CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN. MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. WITH THE HIGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN TOMORROW. BUT COOLER IN WESTERN WI WHERE THE CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PUSHES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA.
NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS TX WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS MORNING. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE WITH MOISTURE POOLING EVENTS UNDER THE RIDGE. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE CONVECTION FARTHER S/SW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THAN THE COARSER GRID MODELS. BUT THIS SEEMS IMPROBABLE ALSO DUE TO RIDGE AXIS LOCATION. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER E TX LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE HIGHER MORNING DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MORE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING AS TEMPS TO START MONDAY OFF FALL TO THE LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THIS AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY SO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE LOWER 80S, GIVEN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS A RESULT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND AROUND PERIPHERY OF WESTWARD MOVING UPPER HIGH BY LATE WEEK.
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM 500MB RIDGE. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSRA/SHRA AS LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE FROM 500MB RIDGE MAY BE TOO MUCH. SATELLITE AND UA ANALYSES INDICATING THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER US AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A NORTHEASTERN-BASED COLD FRONT ON THE HEELS OF THIS ACTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MAY EITHER ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY OR SCOUR IT OUT. THE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH COULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND BECOME DEEPLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SE OK/SW AR/NE LA WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. WE HAVE SEEN CU DEVELOPING TO OUR NW WHERE OUTFLOW HAD PREVIOUSLY SCOURED THE LOW LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SW U. AND THE MAIN TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDWEST AND ROTATING DOWN INTO PHASE WITH THE VORT OFF OF THE UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL THEN COOLER MORNINGS WITH FALLING DEW POINTS AND HIGHS KEEP CLOSER TO AVERAGE OVER ALL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
411 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DEVELOPING AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST HOW DIFFUSE THE COLD FRONT IS. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
THE LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST.
329 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 (Tonight and Tuesday) A weak cold front is stalled generally along a line from near Barnhart. This in combination with what is left of the dissipating cold front will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance across the eastern half of the region.
237 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY.
Southwest flow aloft with high pressure building will lead to continued smoky skies today. Overnight, the terrain will stay warmer than valleys, as the airmass remains warm aloft. Looking ahead towards the middle of the week, models indicate that some very late-season monsoonal moisture will rotate around the Great Basin high pressure system and approach the Northern Rockies.
226 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 Current visible satellite shows an enhanced cumulus field developing along the remnants of the cold front that moved into the CWA yesterday. The hi-res models handled yesterday pretty well so have confidence in precipitation in the higher elevations today and have adjusted PoPs up accordingly. An upper high will build over eastern New Mexico the remainder of the week, causing temperatures to increase and decreasing rain chances.
The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front from north central GA through central AL and MS. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a developing long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, which will help drive the surface cold front into the northwest portions of our forecast area later tonight. Although deep layer moisture will increase ahead of the approaching cold front tonight, we expect the stabilizing boundary layer to prevent the development of storms.
THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
304 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST LATER THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLOSED MID- LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE FLOW WAS MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TREKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN ITS USUAL FASHION.
224 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
121 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH A COOL NIGHT IN STORE AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN AGAIN TUE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
159 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH ST. MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED AROUND THIS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WONT MOVE MUCH TODAY NORTH OF I-94 /BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN A WARMER OVERNIGHT THERE/.
300 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
135 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS. RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING TROUGH INTO CANADA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO EVEN WITH LOW PRESSURE APPRAOCHING FROM THE WEST CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AREA THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF ROCKIES UPR RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPR ALTHO THE UPR RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN A BIT.
LOWER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-STATE HAS PUSHED THROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS REPLACED THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY.
THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION OF THE GRAND CANYON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM TONIGHT.
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ANY STORMS STILL FIRING WITH THE WASHED OUT COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD BE STRONG. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WAS DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THUS COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER.
1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK.
PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID- 60S.
THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPERIENCING PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING.
ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY WARMER WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH MORE DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. A NEW COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THIS MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR REALLY THE ENTIRE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
At low-levels, the short- wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region, providing low-level focus for convection. The limiting factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low- level moisture before the front passes.
KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio Valley.
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS WORKING NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AS THE JET FEEDS MOISTURE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFFSHORE. CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KACT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM KESF TO KIAH TO KHDO. THE FRONT IS FCST TO MERGE WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AS THE MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH CIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TRIMMED BACK POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND POSITIONING OF COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 85 62 89 / 10 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 60 86 / 10 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 83 60 86 / 10 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 79 56 83 / 20 10 10 20.
IT WILL BE A WARM AND QUIET NIGHT THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS NOW WORKED WELL INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT HAS POOLED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
At low-levels, the short- wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region, providing low-level focus for convection. The limiting factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging eastward as the longwave trough departs, and the arrival of low- level moisture before the front passes.
THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BUILD A THIN RIDGE OF ABOUT 1500 SBCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
759 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
LESS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROSPECTS ACROSS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.
NW winds and cold pool strato-cu and the rule across te Ohio Valley this afternoon as the upper low closes off and slows down as if paying a toll at the Indiana/Ohio line.
929 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIFT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
735 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 AREA OBS AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW AL AND CENTRAL TN. THE HAIL THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOK FORWARD TO THE COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 39 INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT TERM COLD FRONT.
A weak cold front has moved into the Concho Valley, and it's difficult to locate its position on a surface map, given all the convection along and near this boundary.