Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Whatever precip develops should be moving out of far northeast KS early this afternoon and expect dry conditions for the rest of this afternoon through tonight as weak ridging aloft is over the area. With this low pressure just west of the forecast area, a decent pressure gradient is expected to set up over the area, resulting in breezy southerly winds supporting good warm-air advection across the entire forecast area. With these conditions in place, have continued to trend on the warmer side of model guidance with highs in the low/mid 80s.
ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEG COOLER. ASIDE FROM BEING A FEW DEG WARMER.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
230 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A WEAK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY IF IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL HANG ANY FURTHER WEST. A MUCH WARMER DAY APPEARS TO BE ON TAP TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS YET ANOTHER LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS CARVED INTO THE WRN CONUS.
455 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C.
343 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WITH NOTHING TO KICK OFF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TREND OF COOLER NIGHT-TIME LOWS AND WARM DAY-TIME HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 50S/80S RESPECTIVELY.
337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015 Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper ridging aloft. Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones.
353 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
328 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
658 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
406 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL KEEP RIDGING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SW. H7 STEERING FLOW WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT SO CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS/SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ANY VALLEYS REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PRESSES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. OFFSHORE FLOW IS DIMINISHING DUE TO THE SHIFTING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. ALOFT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAD MOVED TO THE EAST COAST. WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS MOVE IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
Overnight temperatures will remain in the lower 60s to upper 50s in part to increased moisture advection and cloud cover.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN MAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER. EVEN WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY ON THE HIGH'S BACK SIDE.
613 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 43 74 49 / 0 0 0 0.
A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES OVER FLORIDA TODAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LARGELY DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES REIGN OVER THE AREA. THE INTERESTING SITUATION HERE THOUGH IS THAT DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUR 88D RADAR VAD IS INDICATING WE A SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF 15-25KTS. WITH A BIT MORE WIND ABV FL300 AND SOME CIRRUS INCREASING ON THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
150 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AVA SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS THINGS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE. WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON SUN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE TO ALONG THE CA COAST. ON MON THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MON ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW CENTER.
628 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A WEAK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD.
WITH SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 03/12Z.
143 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/ WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow aloft. Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin priming the PBL w/increased moisture.
347 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A warm front resides from central Missouri to north central Kansas this afternoon which has left the southern CWA in the warm sector. Along and south of the warm front is where the best instability resides and will provide the energy for thunderstorm development with the potential for a few of those storms to be strong. This LLJ will override the warm front providing lift for thunderstorm development across central Kansas. This LLJ will eventually veer to the southwest overnight and nose into the local area allowing thunderstorms to overspread the CWA north of the warm front. Saturday night a complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the warm front north of the area.
150 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE MEAN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD AND RETROGRADE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U. ESP FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AS WILL THE CORRESPONDING PUMP UPWARDS IN HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH TIME AND IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE/AREAL PLACEMENT.
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
Saturday is expected to be a cooler, more moist day across western Montana and north central Idaho, with many locations only seeing high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.
A RATHER COMPACT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TOP OF SOME RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE THUS CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY FROM ABOUT PEORIA- SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD. IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WHICH MAY CONTINUE THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
14 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROF OR CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS TROF AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN SEABOARD. AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAYS HIGHS.
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
Clouds will be on the increase today as a low pressure system over northern California moves our way. An upper level low pressure circulation currently situated over northwestern Nevada will continue to draw moisture northward into the region today. The current Red Flag Warning looks valid, but the central Cascade zones that are not included in the highlight will need to be monitored for lightning this afternoon. /SVH 18Z TAFS: A slow moving upper low pressure system will be moving toward the region from northwest Nevada today and tonight.
THE HIGHEST POPS MAY BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY SE OF A LINE FROM MARSHALL TO SIOUX CITY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALOFT WITH THIS HEALTHY CAP PREVENTING CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE JAMES.
BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF BILLINGS AND NEAR COLSTRIP/LAME DEER. ALSO FEEL WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF SW WINDS OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH PRESSURE RISE MAX INTO BILLINGS BY AROUND 00Z. WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD/TORNADO WITH ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG/NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES/BUILDS WEST/NORTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 593 DM ACROSS THE MID STATE. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE.
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BUT RIDGING SHOULD HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER. BUT THINK THAT WITH THE TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH MINIMAL CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTING TO CRANK UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
452 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 BM HEIGHT SHOWS BROAD RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THE RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BE ASSAULTED BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTED OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING; BUT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORING ITSELF IN OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE EURO SOLUTION CONTINUES TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN OVER TX.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. THE TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. DESPITE THE RIDGING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
304 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND CLEAR WEATHER. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER BY MID MORNING, BRINGING A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY AND A CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD COURT OVER THE REGION. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST WHILE THE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. AND SREF ARE ALL UNANIMOUS IN GENERATING SHOWERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TOMORROW. THE SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE EURO IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SO MANY PREVIOUS WARM FRONTS THIS YEAR.
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT LOW WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ ANALYSIS OF MORNING RAOBS SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUING TO BUILD FARTHER WEST. WITH THE RIDGE NOT FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMING IN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER STILL WITH EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAT TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH THE MID LEVELS OVER COLORADO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT.
LATE TONIGHT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LEE TROF OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS. WITH AN UPR TROF BEING ALONG THE WEST COAST. NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION.
ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
WILL HOLD ON TO POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. DO FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TAPS INTO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY POSITION ITSELF TO THE WEST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. EASTERN ALABAMA MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH FROM THE RIDGE CENTER TO WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. 14 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE MEAN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD AND RETROGRADE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U. ESP FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AS WILL THE CORRESPONDING PUMP UPWARDS IN HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH TIME AND IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE/AREAL PLACEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON OUR FA AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVITY MUCH LESS ACTIVE COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING AND WARMING. MEAN TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE AND MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO IT'S PLACE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. BUT THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPS.
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
149 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH STORMS MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BLOCK THE LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA FROM ADVANCING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW WILL DISSOLVE INTO GENERAL TROUGHY FLOW BY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR A PRETTY MAJOR DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.