Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the "troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge over western NOAM. The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND HEAD FOR THE KEYS WITH A LATE SEASON FRONT APPROACHING THE KEYS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA.
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA. A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MILD AND DRY.
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR WINCHESTER (TN) SOUTHWEST THROUGH MARION COUNTY (AL) THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH MAY BE TRYING TO CLOSE OFF SOME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z. IN GENERAL 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. RESULT IS MLCAPE OF 100-300 J/KG WITH POSSIBLY A POCKET APPROACHING 500 J/KG NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. INTERACTION OF THE LOW ON THIS MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN POSITION FOR A GOOD SOLID WARMUP TODAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DOMINATING BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PV ANOMALIES TRACKING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
934 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
Clouds should diminish late this afternoon but then increase again with the approaching cold front tonight. Forecast area remains under the influence of a sheared trof axis aloft, and weakly cyclonic flow at the surface. A piece of energy within the sheared trof is coming through the area at the moment with little fanfare, although there are a few very weak/spotty radar returns. Current upper ridge already in place with high pressure centered over southern Alberta. As the current system over the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley drops southward today, it will yield to an upper low that is now in northwest Ontario and is projected to reach Lake Michigan on Wednesday morning.
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 533 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ CURRENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A POSITIVELY SHEARED MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING -- EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS NOTED -- EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY SHOWER AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SE. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER.
VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A trough digging towards the northern Southern Plains will bring a few clouds to the area today, but otherwise dry weather is finally here. Despite the trough moving through the region today, daytime highs should still be able to climb into the upper 60s due in part to surface ridging still in place. A weak cold front will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but with limited cold air behind the front, afternoon temperatures will be able to quickly rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s. Upper level trough positioned across the Northeast and another trough inland along the California coast, will allow upper level ridging to build over the west-central US.
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE PARCHED. THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY ALSO RESULT IN TURBULENCE BELOW FL080.
1036 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AND EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVEN DIP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOW LYING AREAS BETWEEN VICTORIA TO ALICE TO COTULLA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR WINCHESTER (TN) SOUTHWEST THROUGH MARION COUNTY (AL) THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA. A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MILD AND DRY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1119 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ATLC RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN NUDGED INTO THE FL STRAITS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHING ACRS THE DEEP/MID SOUTH.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN IA. UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Short term guidance in good agreement on slightly farther southward track of low pressure over northern IL this morning resulting in higher snowfall totals across northern and western CWA. While brief mid level ridging will be in place during the morning another 500 millibar wave shifts into northern WI during the afternoon.
Surface Analysis this evening shows Low pressure entering Western Missouri with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri and into Illinois and western Indiana. Models continue to show warm air advection ongoing overnight as the warm front lifts northward. An initial cold front will move through the area during the day on Wednesday and could bring small chances for light showers ahead of it. Wednesday night some upper forcing moves through along with a secondary cold front. During the day Thursday another small spoke of forcing moves through on the back side of the low, keeping small chances for snow and then a rain/snow mix in through the day.
1131 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Have picked up quite a few reports of very light freezing drizzle, from Thief River Falls down through the Fargo Moorhead area. Did keep idea of low pops for spotty light snow/flurries spreading in overnight into wednesday as 500 mb trough moves over the area. As the low moves off towards New England and beyond, the area will be under north/northwest flow aloft for the majority of the period.
341 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front will bring scattered rain showers to the area today. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds will be breezy today and help bump temps into the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon. Tonight expect the cold front to pass through during the evening hours with gusty westerly winds following for the rest of the overnight hours.
205 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Warm air advection in strengthening southwesterly flow on the back side of a departing upper level ridge will lead to warm conditions today under full sun. We favored the warmer NAM MOS guidance for temps today with max temps about 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and the warmest readings are expected along the I-95 corridor. Light rain showers just ahead of an approaching cold front will impinge upon our northwest zones late tonight. A cold front will enter southeast Georgia Thursday morning, and then clear the region by the evening. Cooler and drier air will move into the region behind the front, bringing the first below normal temperatures to the region in over 2 weeks.
A large upper trough continues to cover most of the central and western US today. Montana is in northerly flow aloft on the western part of this trough. This trough will linger tonight with chance of snow showers continuing in the east. NE-SW oriented upper ridge builds into the area from Canada on Thursday with drier air.
However, a few of the high resolution models do show some isolated precipitation.
A weak incoming back door cold front could develop MVFR cigs near KTCC Wed morning through the early aftn.
Still looks like a cold front will move across the state late tonight into early Wednesday. Britt A maturing low pressure system over the plains will move into MO tonight and continue northeastward towards the Great Lakes on Wed. Rain showers are possible across northeastern MO and west central IL until the upper trough moves east of the region. The initially narrow warm sector does not lift completely through the CWA overnight, and the trailing cold front then quickly moves through the CWA on Wed morning. Additionally, in the wake of the passing trough, mid/upper-level heights will be on the rise inferring some mid-level subsidence.
359 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system bringing snow to the region continuing to slowly slide east early this morning, currently sitting over northeastern portions of NE. Snow (light-mod) continues to wrap around the backside of the low, mainly affecting portions of south central NE along and east of an Ord to Red Cloud line. The large upper trough over the central/eastern United states will shift farther east by the weekend.
Embedded mid level SW/V trough sliding southeast into the Northern Plains will spread light snow from north to south tonight into Wednesday. Strong low pressure over the central plains states with widespread across much of South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. Expect this to diminish through the evening an inverted trough into this area weakens an moves east. A weak upper level low currently over southern Saskatchewan will drift southeast the next couple of days, keeping a chance of light snow or flurries across the forecast area. Current surface analysis places low pushing through Kansas with ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Cooler air pulls in behind the system bringing temperatures slightly below average.
228 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will shift south and east of the area this afternoon. A cold front will push east across Central NC on Thursday, bringing seasonably colder temperatures to the region through the weekend. Strong 30 to 35 kt low-level westerly downslope flow in the wake of the cold front will lead to abrupt west-east post-frontal clearing and more notably breezy post frontal conditions with frequent gusts of 30 to 35kts during peak afternoon mixing. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Behind this lead front, and beneath a broad trough aloft forecast to migrate into the Ern U. A cold front crossing the area from west to east on Thursday will bring a chance of showers and sub- VFR conditions late Wednesday night through mid morning Thursday(in the east).
400 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper trough from central Canada to the Desert Southwest. Within the broad trough, short waves were noted over northwest Ontario, northeast NE, southern CA, southern AZ, southern UT, and northeast MT. Thermal trough was on the north and west side of the broad trough and will move across the area Thu. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will move through Fri.
Adjusted hourly weather grids tonight to account for the cold front and resulting temperatures and winds. A dry cold front will continue to move through Oklahoma and north Texas tonight. The cold front was near a Cheyenne to Perry line as of 730 pm and will continue to push south tonight. Otherwise, quiet and cooler weather will continue tonight.
North to northwest flow aloft continues through tonight as a weak upper trough axis passes through. Temps will drop a little each day for most folks, with very few areas getting above freezing either day.
Upper flow remains dominated by a largely progressive upper flow that will drive a cold front through the area this morning. Pattern aloft is dominated by a broad upper trough that covers a large part of the north central through southwest conus.
The region will continue to under the influence of an upper trough with embedded waves moving south to southeast mainly across western and southwest MT. Skies will also trend toward the clear side over the Plains as high pressure ridging builds over the region, with valley inversions particularly over the SW valleys potentially contributing to clouds, fog, and/or air quality concerns by Thursday morning.
Still expect most of the valleys to steadily cool off into the upper 20s and lower 30s with mostly clear skies in place and high pressure only slowly exiting. NAM bufkit soundings seem to have a good handle on the clearing and at this point looks like we should clear from south/southwest to north/northeast, especially as the low level jet ramps up late tonight. With much cooler air already keeping temps down this afternoon into the lower 40s, a bit of clearing tonight may allow temps, especially valley temps to fall into the lower 30s. The higher elevations will likely see higher wind gusts. Most of the period will be dominated by cold weather with a west to northwest cyclonic low level flow under a longwave eastern CONUS trough.
SHORT TERM:(Today through Thursday): A dry cold front is just north of the region and is moving steadily south toward the CWFA, and will be knocking on the door of the northern counties by dawn. Tonight will be clear with light north winds and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s as high pressure settles over the region. Conditions will be sunny, dry and slightly cooler on Thursday with high temps mainly in the 70s.
230 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will shift south and east of the area this afternoon. A cold front will push east across Central NC on Thursday, bringing seasonably colder temperatures to the region through the weekend. Strong 30 to 35 kt low-level westerly downslope flow in the wake of the cold front will lead to abrupt west-east post-frontal clearing and more notably breezy post frontal conditions with frequent gusts of 30 to 35kts during peak afternoon mixing. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s inland and near 50 at the coast. Deep layer ridging will slide east through Wednesday making way for the next upper trough and associated cold front. Skies will be slow to clear Thursday with highs ranging from the lower 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast.
A Thursday cold front will bring colder temperatures and snow showers through the weekend. And 850 hPa warm front continues to slowly edge northeastward through the area early this morning. While no areas are currently below freezing in this regime, there is some evidence that areas in the northeastern zones may challenge freezing in the next couple of hours as surface wet bulb zero values are straddling freezing. This could mean some patchy freezing drizzle but based upon low confidence of this coming to fruition combined with ground temperatures likely warmer than the air, no headlines are planned at the moment. Fries Cold front will cross the region Thursday morning with rain showers Wednesday night mixing with and changing to snow showers Thursday.
Little (up to about a half inch) to no accumulation is expected given the expected warmer surface temps as well as the rather warm ground temps.
However, a few of the high resolution models do show some isolated precipitation. Highly amplified pattern over the weekend with a ridge in the west and trough in the east will put the local area under northwest flow. The pattern flattens by the end of the period with a disturbance in central Canada, but will still be under the influence of a ridge over the desert southwest.
There may be some drizzle or freezing drizzle before, changing to snow across central and east-central Wisconsin. Maybe a little freezing drizzle early far north with drizzle during the rest of the day. With temperatures above freezing, the wet snow will compact and probably melt some during the day Wednesday. Total snowfall amounts of less than an inch is expected over the far north, 1 to 3 inches from Rhinelander and Merrill east to Marinette and northern Door Counties, and 4 to 7 inches south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line with the highest totals near Wautoma and Wisconsin Rapids.
/issued 446 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ Late this afternoon through tonight: Latest surface analysis shows a deep low pressure center off of the New England coast with an extending cold front to the south, over the Atlantic. High pressure was the dominating feature this afternoon over our region with breezy west northwest winds and clear skies.
131 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday.
208 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front is currently pushing east across the area and will slide east of the area this morning.
circulation around the deep upper low spinning over north central Nebraska at the moment will likely continue to keep skies mostly cloudy to overcast over nearly all of the forecast area for the remainder of the night. In the high country. northwest flow will also continue to produce areas of light orographic snowfall for most of the night mainly along the high ridges and west facing slopes. upper trough over central Nebraska with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over northeast Colorado.
and into the early morning hrs as near term high-res model solutions are suggesting some isolated activity developing overnight along/ahead of the cold front. There will also be some small chances for rain across the far SERN portion of AR along a cold front as it progresses SE through the state on Wed. This will be ahead of a cold front that will exit the region to the east Wednesday morning. Behind the front, winds will shift to the west/northwest, and slightly cooler/drier air will arrive.
230 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will shift south and east of the area this afternoon. A cold front will push east across Central NC on Thursday, bringing seasonably colder temperatures to the region through the weekend. Strong 30 to 35 kt low-level westerly downslope flow in the wake of the cold front will lead to abrupt west-east post-frontal clearing and more notably breezy post frontal conditions with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph during peak afternoon mixing. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
forecast area under northwest flow aloft with a low pressure system currently near Omaha, NE. For today the low steadily moves east with our area under considerable low and mid level cloudiness.
437 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Weak high pressure exits today. Cold front late this evening and tonight. Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. Getting into the warm air advection in the low levels as evidenced by the retreating stratus from southwest to northeast. No major timing changes with the relatively narrow band of showers expected with the cold front after 21Z, and tailored the timing with the HRRR and RAP at the onset, which coincided nicely with the previous forecast. A moist and colder airmass behind the cold front will bring scattered low elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers Thursday, changing to all snow showers Thursday night.
308 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will move east across the local area this morning. A warm front will lift north across the region by mid day as low pressure moves east into northern Indiana. The low pressure system will move northeast into Quebec by tonight forcing a cold front east across the region.