Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Upper level ridge axis over the High Plains will shift east over the Northern Plains by 00Z Mon. Short wave located over NV will roll over the upper ridge fro Sun and produce thunderstorms.
1056 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will result in dry weather tonight. Saturday, a warm front will become quasi-stationary near the KY/TN border.
231 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 08z surface analysis had weak low over central SD with trough from central MT into low and then east into southern MN. Water vapour had upper ridge over CO with generally rising heights over the CWA. Today, mid-level heights slowly rise as thermal ridge amplifies over the CWA. Lee trough will strengthen from central MT into eastern WY with weak low over northeast WY.
Disturbance passages Saturday night and Sunday will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures on Sunday.
215 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic region will provide dry but very warm and humid weather here Saturday but trending less humid Sunday.
Meanwhile, conditions will generally be dry today with just some low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the northern portions of the forecast area as a cold front sinks into the area.
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Cold front drops south today, isolated shower/storm possible south.
Our region is stuck between the upper ridge over the desert SW and Barry to the east. Went with slightly lower max temps on Sunday with the lower MOS numbers, higher PW and the possible scattered SH/TS over the east.
1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The upper level ridge is currently located to the west this afternoon. The ridge will remain to the west but will start to move east towards the area this weekend. As this occurs temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this weekend, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected.
Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated on the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge (over the Rockies) and northern periphery of an H3 ridge (over the Southern Plains), in weak W-NNW flow aloft. Forcing will be relegated to differential heating on the slopes of the CO Foothills/Palmer Divide, weak low-level convergence invof a broad thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies, and (perhaps) mesoscale features emanating from upstream convection. Tropical storm Barry is expected to have made landfall over Louisiana by Sunday as a ridge sits over much of the U.
Associated mid to upper-level cloud cover is more likely to move into northern Missouri, though this should dissipated as mid-level ridging continues to expand northward across the Plains.
Looks like continued climo-like temperatures and humidity for mid- July with an upper pattern that features a low amplitude western CONUS ridge and low amplitude eastern CONUS trough, with fairly zonal flow aloft.
High pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will move eastward into the northern Great Lakes today and tonight. The ridge axis will be right over the U. With dewpoints falling back into the lower 50s behind yesterday's front/trough, it will feel quite pleasant under abundant sunshine. Clear and calm conditions tonight will allow temperatures to fall back into the lower to middle 50s.
344 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected today high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Other than patchy morning valley fog, mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
1138 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure of 1015 mb is centered over central Illinois this evening resulting in clear skies and light or calm winds. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Illinois. while a cold front extended from Lake Superior southwestward to South Dakota. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the KILX CWA through Saturday. Clear skies and light winds directly beneath the high will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s along/east of the I-57 corridor. The cold front will sag southward and stall during the day Saturday, with most model guidance suggesting scattered convection developing along the I-80 corridor by afternoon/evening.
Only some minor changes in the synoptic pattern over Norcal as the Four Corners High and TS/HRCN Barry impede the progress and effects of the trof moving into the Pac NW over the weekend. JHM Interior NorCal remains under upper level southwest flow between high pressure centered over the four corners area and upper level troughing off the coast. This warming trend will be short-lived as the upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW and the high pressure pushes eastward.
A cold front was approaching the area this afternoon from the northwest. Will have to keep a very close eye on this cluster of storms and the cold front for additional storm development. The showers and storms should then be on a weakening trend as they push south of Interstate 90 tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Will have to watch the front, but thinking with the high edging in, any showers or storms should stay south of the area. The cold front has been slowly advancing toward the area this evening and is still expected to move trough late tonight.
344 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 At the surface, we will have high pressure across the Great Lakes and one just south across portions of the Tennessee Valley Sunday night. We will also be watching the remnants of Barry move inland across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday night and eventually into the Ohio Valley by midweek. When it comes to upper level features, we will see some ridging ahead of the closed low in association with Barry. Then ridging follows in the wake of the upper level wave.
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected into Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front. These rain chances should continue south of Interstate 70 Sunday, with high pressure returning dry weather to the rest of the region. Mainly clear skies are expected tonight under high pressure. Mainly clear skies should continue Saturday as the high moves east. A cold front will take its time moving from northwest to southeast, taking Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday evening to completely cross the region. The highest chances for rain will come Saturday evening along the I-80 corridor and Sunday afternoon south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Closer to home, a very weak inverted trough associated with the pressure field surrounding Barry extended across the northern portion of the state from Jasper to Cullman over to Rome GA. May include slightly higher PoPs both north (in the vicinity of the trough) and extreme south (where tropical moisture may be an influence).
All is quiet and clear this Saturday morning as high pressure continues to dominate the forecast. Temperatures are currently spanning from the 60s and 70s across the Valley and the foothills this morning, while the ridges sit in the mid to upper 50s. The exception will be the high elevation ridges where highs will span the upper 60s to the 80s. Looking to Sunday, we can expect the warming trend will be short- lived as the upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW and the high pressure pushes eastward.
Meanwhile pops were lowered some and minor adjustements were done to temps that are forecast to fall into the 60s with 50s in the higher elevations.
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected today high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Other than patchy morning valley fog, mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
The better chance for storms will be during the evening hours as they move off the higher terrain in Central Montana and move eastward into the area. A cold front will move through the area Sunday evening and night, bringing another round of severe storms to Northeast Montana.
eastern US ridge breaks down and upper lows associated with remnants open and bring upper trough across the mid-state Tue through Wed night. Upper ridging and drier conditions drop in behind on Thu, although the GFS is hinting at a weak longwave upper trough heading in the weekend.
As the upper level ridge builds across the area tonight, this frontal boundary will move north and northeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The cold front has been slowly advancing toward the area this evening and is still expected to move trough late tonight.
1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 /06Z TAFS/ Surface and upper level high pressure will continue to result in VFR Conditions and light east to northeast winds through 06Z Sunday. Saturday looks to be a near carbon copy of today, minus the isolated afternoon storms, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. (Sunday through Saturday) A high pressure ridge will continue to sit across the region leaving hot and dry conditions in place.
Temperatures will remain mild with lows expected in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s both nights, and daytime highs on Sunday between 90 and 94 degrees. As that system moves around the southeastern US, models showing upper level ridging building across the area through the middle of the week.
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 (Today and Tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate West Central Texas Weather today and tonight, resulting in sunny and dry weather. This surface pattern will reinforce a slightly cooler and drier flow from the northeast into the area today, resulting in northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph and highs ranging from 92 on the hilltops and 97 in the valley's.
/Issued 936 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ Relatively dry air mass over the region for this time of year should result in another night of unseasonably cooler temperatures. 02z temperatures and dewpoints were running a couple degrees warmer than they were this time last night, and ongoing forecast of temperatures Saturday morning bottoming out a few degrees warmer than this morning looks good.
Alantic ridge will build westward today across the Florida peninsula. Convection will decrease early this evening with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
933 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected today high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region, except for Garrett/Preston/Tucker counties that are already seeing some diurnal cumulus develop. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s both nights, and daytime highs on Sunday between 90 and 94 degrees. As that system moves around the southeastern US, models showing upper level ridging building across the area through the middle of the week.
A persistent upper-level ridge over most of the CONUS continues to help bring heat and humidity to the Northern Plains.
After today, models were now showing the upper high becoming suppressed southward as a trough of low pressure moves through the Intermountain West early this week. Thereafter, the general trend will be an upswing in thunderstorm chances as the upper high becomes more amplified in response to a trough of low pressure deepening along the west coast.
Increasing humidity today as well will pull heat indices into the low to mid 90s. Ridging aloft over the High Plains states generally keeping a northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest, but little in the way of synoptic driven weather over the area through the weekend. A cold front sagging southward into northern IL will bring some chances of precip, mainly to the northern most tier of the state. while that cold front to the north will provide some focus for showers.
Along and east of this area is also where the bulk of the heaviest rainfall is expected, where totals could exceed 10 inches, with amounts up to 20 inches possible especially along the lower Atchafalaya Basin.
659 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure centered near the Ohio River will bring dry weather conditions today.
Mid level high pressure will build in from the south today, and this will lead to much drier conditions for northeast Florida. The light rain over southeast Georgia will shift northward throughout the day as high pressure builds in from the south, and only a slight chance of a shower/storm is possible for northeast Florida this afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 88 72 / 70 60 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 87 71 / 60 40 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 87 70 / 60 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 87 67 / 30 20 20 10.
High pressure in the mid-levels will remain centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border today.
433 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 (Today and Tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate West Central Texas Weather today and tonight, resulting in sunny and dry weather. This surface pattern will reinforce a slightly cooler and drier flow from the northeast into the area today, resulting in northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph and highs ranging from 92 on the hilltops and 97 in the valley's.
The arrival of an upstream trough to the PacNW deforms the NW side of the ridge overhead.
74 inches and shows drier air in the lower layers and moisture contained mainly in the middle/upper reaches of the profile. The bigger story will be the lower rain chances areawide.
1053 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. High pressure will provide a bright and very warm day, but with tolerable humidity. Most of the forecast area will remain dry overnight, but a weak cold front dropping south through the state could trigger a few showers or storms. The best chance will be over the higher elevations of the SW. Highs in the 80s to near 90 will be a few deg warmer than normal in most areas.
/issued 433 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/ (Today and Tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate West Central Texas Weather today and tonight, resulting in sunny and dry weather. This surface pattern will reinforce a slightly cooler and drier flow from the northeast into the area today, resulting in northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph and highs ranging from 92 on the hilltops and 97 in the valley's.
537 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected today high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Other than patchy morning valley fog, mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
As the upper level ridge builds across the area tonight, this frontal boundary will move north and northeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
539 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Another hot day in store for northeast Montana today as upper ridge remains over the northern plains. A cold front will move through the area Sunday evening and night, bringing another round of severe storms to Northeast Montana.
530 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 08z surface analysis had weak low over central SD with trough from central MT into low and then east into southern MN. Water vapour had upper ridge over CO with generally rising heights over the CWA. Today, mid-level heights slowly rise as thermal ridge amplifies over the CWA. Lee trough will strengthen from central MT into eastern WY with weak low over northeast WY.
Upper level ridge axis over the High Plains will shift east over the Northern Plains by 00Z Mon. Short wave located over NV will roll over the upper ridge fro Sun and produce thunderstorms.
746 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. Any early morning valley fog will burn off rapidly with high pressure bringing a bright and very warm day, but with tolerable humidity. Most of the forecast area will remain dry overnight, but a weak cold front dropping south through the state could trigger a few showers or storms. The best chance will be over the higher elevations of the SW. Highs in the 80s to near 90 will be a few deg warmer than normal in most areas.
Meanwhile, the coast will be cooler due to marine cloudiness. model guidance shows a slightly cooler airmass spreading south beneath an area of persistent troughing over the NERN PAC. Northerly winds will continue to ramp up today as the coastal pressure gradient tightens in response to a deepening thermal trough over the CA interior. Seas will remain elevated and driven by wind- driven short period waves for much of the coming week as a broad longwave trough over the E Pacific maintains a northerly wind regime over the region.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am, depict the center of a warm core upper anticyclone at 250 mb over East Texas with an attendant ridge that extends across the North Central and Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (on top of Tropical Storm Barry). At 500 mb, middle level ridging pokes westward to across the Florida Peninsula from the Central Atlantic Ocean. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), 1020 mb plus surface ridging extends from near 27N 70W westward across Central Florida. Surface ridging will remain locked in across the Florida Peninsula through this evening. Some passing showers are moving across the Lower Keys and will continue for the next couple of hours.
643 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Broad upper ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry just south of the southern LA coast. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Ohio Valley with a weak stationary front extending from southern MN into western Nebraska. Upper ridge isn't expected to move much through the weekend.
746 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Aviation - Cold front drops south today, isolated shower/storm possible south.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting slowly eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure extends from northwest Kansas southwestward into southeast Colorado.
Highs on Sunday look to be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today.
An upper level trough will bring clouds and a few showers to the region today.
1227 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected this afternoon under high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region, except for eastern counties that are seeing some diurnal cumulus develop. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
1125 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 08z surface analysis had weak low over central SD with trough from central MT into low and then east into southern MN. Water vapour had upper ridge over CO with generally rising heights over the CWA. Today, mid-level heights slowly rise as thermal ridge amplifies over the CWA. Lee trough will strengthen from central MT into eastern WY with weak low over northeast WY.
143 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Aviation - Cold front drops south today, isolated shower/storm possible south.
126 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains. Due to a staunch cap overhead and subsidence beneath upper ridge and in between waves, cu is having a hard time developing across the region this afternoon. Sunday should be the hottest day with thermal ridge overhead, with most areas in the 90s.
122 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Dry weather is expected this afternoon under high pressure. Slight rain chances return with a cold front tonight. These rain chances could linger south of Interstate 70 Sunday as high pressure returns dry weather elsewhere. Mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure moves east across the region, except for eastern counties that are seeing some diurnal cumulus develop. The front could still spark a few showers/storms S of I 70 Sunday, with dry weather expected elsewhere as high pressure builds back in.
As for temperatures, with little change to the general air mass across the high plains tonight, look for lows back down into the 60s(F). Seasonally warm and dry conditions will continue through the middle part of the week as medium range models show peristent weak ridging aloft remaining settled across the Western High Plains for much of the period.
Otherwise, a short wave trough will move across mainly to our north later tonight and Sunday.
1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Michigan across southern Wisconsin into northern Iowa. Increasing humidity today as well will pull heat indices into the low to mid 90s. Ridging aloft over the High Plains states generally keeping a northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest, but little in the way of synoptic driven weather over the area through the weekend. A cold front sagging southward into northern IL will bring some chances of precip, mainly to the northern most tier of the state. while that cold front to the north will provide some focus for showers.
08z surface analysis had weak low over central SD with trough from central MT into low and then east into southern MN. Water vapour had upper ridge over CO with generally rising heights over the CWA. Today, mid-level heights slowly rise as thermal ridge amplifies over the CWA. Lee trough will strengthen from central MT into eastern WY with weak low over northeast WY.
Expect the upper level ridge across the region to flatten some early in the extended periods.
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 A short wave trough in western sd this morning will continue to move east through the day into eastern sd. Looks like continued climo-like temperatures and humidity for mid- July with an upper pattern that features a low amplitude western CONUS ridge and low amplitude eastern CONUS trough, with fairly zonal flow aloft.
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The region remains between an upper ridge to the west, currently anchored over northern New Mexico/southern Colorado, and Tropical Storm Barry, which has made landfall over the southern Louisiana coast. Temperatures this afternoon are on their way to topping out near normal in the lower to middle 90s for most, with northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface yielding dry conditions.
satellite loops and obs suggest multiple circulations with this cyclone. For us expect thunderstorms to develop along bands on the western flank of the cyclone.
Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain in Central Montana this afternoon and move into Phillips/Petroleum County in the 5 to 6 PM time frame. As the low-level jet strengthens a bit near sunset and the storms enter an environment characterized by better low-level moisture with dewpoints in the low 60s, the storms may be able to become better organized as they reach the Valley/Garfield County area or perhaps just east. -Mottice Another hot day in store for northeast Montana today as upper ridge remains over the northern plains. A cold front will move through the area Sunday evening and night, bringing another round of severe storms to Northeast Montana.