Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest water vapor imagery shows a large mid/upper level trough extending southward from Ontario well into Texas. Upstream of this, ridging extends across much of the western U. Highs today are forecast to climb a few degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly sunny skies and surface winds generally under 10 mph. The warming trend continues Saturday as upper level ridging moves overhead with high temperatures at or close to the freezing mark which should continue to eat away at our existing snowpack. Patchy freezing drizzle looks possible in our southern counties while some banding snow looks probable in the colder air in our northern counties.
A cold front will be moving through the area today and tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the area ahead of the front. Cooler and drier high pressure builds into the area behind the front, with conditions gradually clearing Saturday. Highs today are expected to reach into the upper 60s north to the lower 80s south. Lows tonight reflect that cooler air moving in, with upper 30s north to the lower 50s south. Highs Saturday only reach into the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south.
This will provide ascent for a chance of snow showers across the forecast area, with the main focus being in the high country. High temperatures will be warmer than they have been in for two weeks with highs reaching the mid to upper 30s over western and central zones, with lower 30s over the east.
509 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 The area remains on the backside of an upper level trough through the day with broad and unfocused mid level warm advection. Low level temperatures just a bit warmer than yesterday so highs today likely to be another few degrees warmer, generally in the 20s this afternoon. If this shallow moist layer can deepen there would be a small chance for some very light freezing drizzle but for now just anticipating some fog. By Saturday a developing trough over the Rockies will begin to spread moisture and lift across the Western High Plains with some potential for precipitation possibly reaching south central SD by late afternoon.
High pressure will bring a rapid warming trend today and Saturday.
Much warmer air aloft will arrive later tonight as a storm system moving inland across the Pacific Northwest, moves over the Rockies. Temperatures will approach 30 degrees along the lee of the Buffalo Ridge Saturday as this warmer air begins to spell eastward.
518 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Early this morning areas of clouds and scattered flurries/snow showers persisted across the area with broad upper level troughing across the area. Otherwise, as the trough axis slides east through the day and tonight subsidence/drying aloft will promote gradual clearing from the west. Temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees cooler, with only weak low-level cold advection. Tonight looks to be the last sub-zero night for much of the area for the foreseeable future as surface ridging extends into the area.
646 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Quick early morning update to include the freezing fog developing across Childress county. /issued 323 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ The highly anticipated warming trend officially begins today as our flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Afternoon winds will be somewhat breezy from the southwest as lee-troughing develops in NE NM.
431 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Areas of freezing fog, some dense will lift this morning.
542 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Very cold temperatures across the area this morning, with 3 AM readings mainly in the low to mid teens, although Abilene and Sonora are reporting five degrees and seven degrees respectively. We finally get to see the sun again today, along with temperatures climbing above the freezing mark as south to southwest winds return. Will undercut guidance temperatures a few degrees today, due to residual snow cover, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be cold again tonight, but not as cold as what we are currently seeing this morning, with lows in the low to mid 20s.
358 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Latest water vapor imagery shows a large mid/upper level trough extending southward from Ontario well into Texas. Upstream of this, ridging extends across much of the western U. Highs today are forecast to climb a few degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly sunny skies and surface winds generally under 10 mph. The warming trend continues Saturday as upper level ridging moves overhead with high temperatures at or close to the freezing mark which should continue to eat away at our existing snowpack. Patchy freezing drizzle looks possible in our southern counties while some banding snow looks probable in the colder air in our northern counties.
Ridgetop winds in the 650/700 mb layer around 50-60kts today, then decreases to 40 kts this evening. For Saturday, initially weak ridging aloft in the morning, but by afternoon flow aloft turns southwest in response to rapidly approaching wave into Western Colorado by late afternoon. An associated cold front will move southward across eastern Colorado late afternoon and evening hours followed by increasing northerly winds.
Through Saturday morning, the highest elevations of the Park Range could see 6-10 inches of snow while the Elkheads and surrounding lower elevations will see 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. The next system moves into the Great Basin as a strongly positively tilted trough on Saturday morning. Light shower activity associated with this system will begin for the Eastern Uintas and the northern mountains Saturday morning and will increase and spread southward through the day as the trough axis approaches the Rockies. Snowfall will become mainly orographically driven Saturday night as the trough axis moves east of the forecast area.
High pressure will build over the region tonight. High pressure will be firmly centered over the region on Saturday and highs will be able to moderate quite nicely with middle to upper 40s in the northwest to upper 50s in the southeast.
to the lower to middle 20s across the far S/SE CWA. As high pressure shifts into the Appalachians, increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air into central Illinois on Saturday.
Highs today will be in the teens and winds will be light as high pressure is over the area. Summary A progressive pattern continues to unfold across the Northern Plains with a trough translating east through the weekend. As this trough moves easterly there brings the chance for some lift and moisture to end the weekend.
Lingering mid level clouds are keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s as of writing. We will be slow to warm this morning with most of the region not climbing above freezing until late this morning. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for efficient radiational cooling as temps once again fall below freezing. High pressure will begin to shift east overnight into Saturday which brings the return of onshore flow.
Some freezing fog will be possible at KMAF/KHOB/KPEQ/KINK this morning before moving out this afternoon. /issued 345 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ WV shows the upper-level trough that brought yesterday's snow to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico well off to the east and entering the MS Valley. 5 days/220 hrs or so below freezing, temps at KMAF and much of the area look to finally climb above freezing this afternoon. However, many areas should see the sun for the first time in over a week, and this will warm most areas to above freezing by mid-afternoon.
443 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Current surface analysis places trough to the lee of the Rockies and high over the southern plains into the midwest. Upper level analysis places trough through the midwest and compact ridge working into the northern plains, with short wave trough right behind it. For today and tonight, fog will dissipate by mid morning, with quiet weather then expected through mid-day as upper ridge to the west passes over. High temperatures are expected to be a fair amount warmer over most locations, particularly the southwest where many locations are expected to push into the lower 30s. Later in the afternoon into the evening the aforementioned short wave behind the ridge continues its approach.
701 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Leftover pockets of light snow and freezing drizzle today will give way to accumulating lake snows mainly southeast of the lakes tonight and Saturday.
500 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (Today and tonight) As the base of an upper-level trough continues to move eastward, a low-amplitude ridge with predominately zonal flow, will enter the area. The only hindrance to diurnal warmer surface temperatures is the remaining snowpack from the winter storm earlier in the week. Even then, temperatures still could reach above freezing in the afternoon. Weak isentropic ascent in the low-levels could allow from some cloud cover, but confidence is higher in mostly sunny skies across the area. For tonight, weak warm air advection will help to keep temperatures in the teens across the area, and in the lower 20s across portions of western-north Texas.
Patchy freezing fog is trying to form over parts of eastern NM, but so far it has been minimal. Let the warm up begin! Though temperatures will remain below normal today, they will be 5 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, and Saturday will be warmer still.
345 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 WV shows the upper-level trough that brought yesterday's snow to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico well off to the east and entering the MS Valley. 5 days/220 hrs or so below freezing, temps at KMAF and much of the area look to finally climb above freezing this afternoon. However, many areas should see the sun for the first time in over a week, and this will warm most areas to above freezing by mid-afternoon.
600 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Areas of freezing fog, some dense will lift this morning.
316 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Key messages: - Temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark this afternoon.
/issued 323 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ The highly anticipated warming trend officially begins today as our flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Afternoon winds will be somewhat breezy from the southwest as lee-troughing develops in NE NM.
323 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 The highly anticipated warming trend officially begins today as our flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Afternoon winds will be somewhat breezy from the southwest as lee-troughing develops in NE NM.
317 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Early this morning areas of clouds and scattered flurries/snow showers persisted across the area with broad upper level troughing across the area. Otherwise, as the trough axis slides east through the day and tonight subsidence/drying aloft will promote gradual clearing from the west. Temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees cooler, with only weak low-level cold advection. Tonight looks to be the last sub-zero night for much of the area for the foreseeable future as surface ridging extends into the area.
Mountain snow returns today as well as a dynamic 100-kt 300 mb upper level jet combines with the passing 500-mb trough, and a decent moisture plume to bring enough snow to warrant an advisory for the next 48 hours. Gusty winds region- wide could cause nuisance driving conditions through this afternoon due to blowing and drifting snow with a light surface snowpack still in place across the High Plains and adjacent High Terrain, and light snowfall expected regionwide outside of the aforementioned more notable areas. Snowfall tappers off Saturday night as the 500-me trough passes eastward.
Weak trough moving through NorCal will dissipate this morning.
It will be warmer today, then cooler Saturday, as a disturbance turns flow back onshore with gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts.
Upper level heights will be rising as the upper level trough over our region early this morning moves eastward and upper level ridging moves into the region on Saturday. Any precipitation should remain north of the forecast area today through Saturday along and north of a weak warm front. Although the highs on Saturday will be around 5 degrees below normal for late February it will feel quite warm relative to the bitterly cold stretch of temperatures the past 2 weeks.
Continued cloudiness will mean high temperatures this afternoon will be a bit cooler, ranging from the upper teens across north-central Wisconsin and low 20s across northeast Wisconsin. High pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes tonight into Saturday, which will bring a dry period to the region. Temperatures on Saturday are generally expected to rise into the lower to middle 20s with modest warming.
520 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Key messages: - Temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark this afternoon.
739 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 At daybreak an upper level trough stretched from Hudson Bay, Canada to the northern Gulf coast while a frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard extended into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These features ease eastward today as high pressure in the southern plains builds into the Gulf of Mexico. S winds become W and NW as the front moves through and high pressure builds into the Gulf. High pressure builds into the Gulf then tracks east during the weekend with winds diminishing and veering.
Going farther north however the flow changes to a developing ridge over the high plains of Canada which traces back to a trough over the the Gulf of Alaska. The trough itself is a far warmer pacific airmass and is expected to undercut the ridge over Montana generating a warm split flow. Today through Saturday: Cold air across the area is expected to shallow as a warm front overruns it with warmer west wind today. This passage should begin the process of warming highs to above freezing today.
320 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 The area remains on the backside of an upper level trough through the day with broad and unfocused mid level warm advection. Low level temperatures just a bit warmer than yesterday so highs today likely to be another few degrees warmer, generally in the 20s this afternoon. If this shallow moist layer can deepen there would be a small chance for some very light freezing drizzle but for now just anticipating some fog. By Saturday a developing trough over the Rockies will begin to spread moisture and lift across the Western High Plains with some potential for precipitation possibly reaching south central SD by late afternoon.
Lows tonight are forecast to be in the teens, with some single digits likely in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois due to the position of the ridge axis late tonight. Nearly the entire area should see temperatures climb above the freezing mark on Saturday, the first time for most since February 5th. The aforementioned late February sun and temperatures above freezing should really begin to accelerate the snowmelt across the region. Increasing southwest surface flow and cloud cover overnight Saturday night is likely to yield much warmer temperatures compared to 24 hours prior.
150 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Consecutive hours below freezing from the recent arctic airmass will end for all locations across the forecast area today. Areas of drizzle may develop Sat night but a non diurnal temperature trace is likely to limit the freezing drizzle potential.
1148 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (Today and tonight) As the base of an upper-level trough continues to move eastward, a low-amplitude ridge with predominately zonal flow, will enter the area. The only hindrance to diurnal warmer surface temperatures is the remaining snowpack from the winter storm earlier in the week. Even then, temperatures still could reach above freezing in the afternoon. Weak isentropic ascent in the low-levels could allow from some cloud cover, but confidence is higher in mostly sunny skies across the area. For tonight, weak warm air advection will help to keep temperatures in the teens across the area, and in the lower 20s across portions of western-north Texas.
139 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday providing dry but cold weather through the weekend.
This has allowed temperatures to warm a degree or two faster than anticipated in some areas with our southeast above freezing and upper 20s at most other locations. Warming will continue through the day but the northwest half of the CWA will still be at or below freezing at noon. RGB satellite imagery showing the low clouds rapidly diminishing from the north early this morning and expect this trend to continue through the rest of the morning.
1131 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 A cold front will push across the Keys early this evening. In the meantime, a pre-frontal trough has led to a few showers this morning, mainly from about Surgarloaf Key (MM 16) northward through the Middle Keys.
234 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 A chance of light snow is in the forecast tonight with warmer temperatures on Saturday. A north-south oriented warm front was across eastern Montana and approaching the western North Dakota border this afternoon. Saturday, a broad trough begins to dig through the Four Corners region, with mostly zonal flow across the Northern Plains.
The warming trend will carry right into tomorrow with warmer than previously forecast highs. well into the lower 50s for most. The increased low level warm/moist advection will most likely manifest as a growing area of freezing drizzle late in the night after temperatures drop back down into the lower 30s or even upper 20s.
The sun along with highs mainly in the lower 30s will start working on the snow/ice today. Unfortunately, we will have another refreeze cycle tonight along with areas of freezing fog.
The winds aloft will also strengthen on Saturday as an upper level trough moves into the central Rockies, causing west and southwest winds to gust from 30 to 45 kt across the forecast area during the afternoon. Let the warm up begin! Though temperatures will remain below normal today, they will be 5 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, and Saturday will be warmer still.
Flow becomes more zonal during the day on Saturday as the next trough digs into the Northern Rockies.
At the same time, a pocket of cooler air aloft at 850mb combined with the increased heating from the solar angle this time of year will allow diurnal snowshowers to impact much of the UP. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a trough over the east 12z Sat. The trough moves into the plains 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes by Sun night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the western U. and a trough across the eastern U. Troughing moves into the Rockies 12z Wed. This trough heads east, but misses the area for Thu and Fri. I anticipate the most widespread SHSN at SAW this afternoon as a weak cold front/lake breeze moves south across the terminals.
The Lake Cumberland region will likely stay in the teens, and Louisville will remain a little warmer than surrounding areas. The low temperatures tonight are dependent on clear skies, as any cloud cover will limit cooling. Skies remain mostly clear as upper ridging begins flowing over the Lower Ohio Valley.
With warmer south winds today we are on our way to the 20s and lower 30s by late afternoon. Southerly flow on the backside of this high will help to initiate low lvl warm advection and lead to a bit warmer day across most of the forecast area. A warm front will move into the western Dakotas by late today into tonight. The warming trend is still set to continue into the start of the weekend as the low level warm advection pattern persists. Highs above freezing will be more probable west of the James valley by Saturday afternoon. When the period opens, an area of low pressure is moving across the central plains, mainly south of this CWA.
Under a cloud free sky and lee side troughing, we are finally seeing temps rise above freezing this afternoon. With light winds and a slight upslope flow, the southeast is the most likely to have some freezing fog overnight. The trough is set to come onshore across southern Oregon/northern California and dive across the desert southwest by Saturday night.
335 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Rain will taper off as dry and cool air moves in behind a cold front through tonight. Dry and cool high pressure will last through the weekend.
147 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Progressive upper pattern features a trough over western Canada this afternoon with a flat ridge expected to move in from the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend.
/issued 345 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ WV shows the upper-level trough that brought yesterday's snow to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico well off to the east and entering the MS Valley. 5 days/220 hrs or so below freezing, temps at KMAF and much of the area look to finally climb above freezing this afternoon. However, many areas should see the sun for the first time in over a week, and this will warm most areas to above freezing by mid-afternoon.
923 AM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Areas of light snow and blowing snow will affect much of the region today, as warmer air tries to move into the area.
Warm advection will be increasing, but widespread cloud cover should hold our northern areas to the lower 20s, while the south reaches the lower 30s.
An upper level trough will move to the east of our region this afternoon and will be followed by dry zonal flow aloft tonight into Saturday.
This will be the last subfreezing morning for this event. High pressure will ensure mostly sunny skies Saturday and warming temperatures. Additionally, winds will become southeasterly to southerly as the high moves to the east. High temperatures Saturday will climb to the upper 40s over the northeast and north, the 50s over most of the area, and the lower 60s in the southwest. Temperatures will be warmer with lows ranging from the middle 30s to the middle 40s.
For tonight, high pressure will move directly over the area with clear skies and light winds. Also, some pockets of freezing fog will develop late in the night, adding to the potential for slick spots.
Temps should dip well below freezing area wide. With ridge overhead, I trimmed min temps a couple of degrees colder on the northern Plateau--wouldn't be surprised with a few isolated spots in the morning in the single digits up there. Being under the ridge Wind Chill won't be a factor. The ridge slides slowly to the east during the day Saturday, and makes it far enough east for a weak return flow to start in the southern and westerns parts of the forecast area. In fact, as the high moves farther east southerly winds will commence helping to warm things up early. This will also be in response to the deepening trough over the northern Plains.
/Updated at 0124 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ High pressure over coastal LA will move east through Saturday night. there could be a possibility of freezing fog. Have introduced patchy freezing fog in the forecast these counties. low level flow will transition to out of the west as the high pressure moves across southern MS and AL. will allow for temperatures a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 40's in the northwest to the upper 50's in the southeast.
High pressure extends from the Texas northeastward into the Mid-South at this time. Some freezing fog may also develop late tonight and could become widespread overnight. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
(This evening through Saturday) This afternoon, warmer south to southwest low level/surface flow has returned to West Central Texas, bringing warmer temperatures to the region. As of noon, temperatures are 7-13 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, and highs today will be in the low to mid 40s. Expect overnight lows tonight/tomorrow morning in the low to mid 20s with some south breezes continuing. Saturday, expect continued warming as the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens and south to southwest flow continues near the surface. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s with sunny skies.