Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 High amplitude ridge axis aloft across the West will gradually shift east for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Ample sunshine and H50 height rises of 5-10 decameters during the day tomorrow, after a cool start, will help lift highs into the 60s for most spots in our area, about 10 degrees warmer than today. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the western CONUS on Sunday night as the upper ridge axis over California begins to deamplify and longwave troughing shifts further eastward over the east coast.
The ridge continues to build into the early part of the week.
Expect a reinforcing shot of cold air to cross parts of the area overnight as a cold front moves into eastern Nebraska late night. with potentially warmer temperatures across areas west of 281. with cooler temperatures tomorrow afternoon across areas to the east. Despite the warmer temps across our west.
High pressure remains in place through the storm term. Expect slightly cooler temperatures without the development of the valley moisture.
The low clouds have been persistent over central Illinois this afternoon, with stratocumulus clouds tending to develop over any areas to the west that clear out. Guidance chances for measurable precip continue to be on the low side, so we boosted those in coordination with neighboring offices.
Negative teens will dominate the interior, with the mitigating factors against a wind chill advisory being the lack of meaningful winds and incoming mid-to upper-level cloud cover as an upper trough passes overhead.
Cold front has pushed off the coast and gusty northerly winds dominating the weather across the region. Clear skies around sunrise will continue through the day as the big high pressure over NW TX sags south tonight and Sunday. This will play havoc with winds Sunday as ridge axis traverse the area and weakens. Weak reinforcing cold front pushing into the Arklatex Sunday night looses it's punch with lee side troughing starting to develop.
The overall synoptic pattern remains one of a longwave trough over the east and ridging over the west per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A cold and dry high pressure system was centered over the southern plains. Have lows generally around 20 for tonight, but with a little more mixing and cloud cover there is some potential for lows to be a tad warmer.
301 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 As the mean trough over the CONUS continues to push more east today, ridging continues to amplify over the west CONUS.
Snow cover, minimal sky cover, and a shallow inversion will support colder temperatures in the high mountain valleys. Sunday, the region will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge with NW flow aloft promoting dry and quiet weather conditions. Continued warming in the 700 mb temperatures will support warmer temperatures than Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions can be expected over the higher elevations and eastern plains Sunday.
559 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored off the coast of California with a ridge extending north into the Alaska Panhandle and northwestern British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over northeastern Montana. A warm front extended to the southeast of the low into central South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska. Low pressure will quickly dive southeast across South Dakota and Nebraska tonight forcing a reinforcing shot of colder air in the form of an arctic cold front.
However, given fairly large T/Td spreads across most of the area still, it will take time for the low levels dry air to erode, but eventually the column should fully saturate overnight into Sunday morning so most areas will start off the day tomorrow with mainly light but steady rain showers. A cold front currently pushing into the panhandle will be heading our way overnight.
520 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 Cold front from earlier today has cleared the terminals with widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. A dry cold front will move through across the terminals late in the period with a corresponding wind shift but nothing else.
634 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A cold front will cross the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia tonight and settle southeast of the region on Sunday while ushering in much colder air.
527 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 As the mean trough over the CONUS continues to push more east today, ridging continues to amplify over the west CONUS.
Northwesterly flow has continued to filter in much cooler air across the region with 700mb temperatures running several degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon which translates to current values running 4 to 8 degrees cooler at the surface with some sites sitting 10 to 15 degrees cooler. The synoptic pattern will remain unchanged through most of the short term period as an upper level ridge continues to sit off the coast of California while a broad trough dominates the eastern and central CONUS. The prolonged ridge will finally begin to break down as it progresses inland Sunday night.
An upper level trough will continue to push east across the forecast area tonight. A few mainly light rain showers and clouds occasionally at MVFR levels will occur ahead of the trough, with skies clearing behind it.
/issued 227 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022/ High amplitude ridge axis aloft across the West will gradually shift east for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Ample sunshine and H50 height rises of 5-10 decameters during the day tomorrow, after a cool start, will help lift highs into the 60s for most spots in our area, about 10 degrees warmer than today. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the western CONUS on Sunday night as the upper ridge axis over California begins to deamplify and longwave troughing shifts further eastward over the east coast.
558 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A cold front will cross the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia tonight and settle southeast of the region on Sunday while ushering in much colder air.
Very cold conditions are in place over the Midwest today, as high pressure is over the Plains. Looking west and north, "upstream" we're seeing a clipper low pressure in North Dakota, with a arc of mid clouds extending Southeast through central Iowa.
A ridge remains in place keeping temperatures above normal and the weather fair through the rest of the weekend.
Weak disturbance looks to cross the Rockies during the day, spurring some subtle lee troughing in E CO. Given the subtle lee troughing, winds will not be notable either for public impacts or for fire weather concerns.
358 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 (Issued 358 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure has built into the western Great Lakes Region throughout the day today. This high pressure will be quick to shift eastward as a trough of low pressure works its way across Manitoba into the Northern Plains. This trough of low pressure is expected to pivot across the Northern Plains toward the western Ohio River Valley early Sunday morning.
Analyzed MSLP and pressure rises show a sfc cyclone centered near the MT/ND/SD borders with modest pressure rises of 2-3 mb/3 hr in its wake. Generally near to slightly above normal temps across the area this aftn, with predominantly westerly flow ahead of the low aside from terrain-induced perturbations near the Black Hills.
Expect the relatively deeper accumulations in the higher terrain of Wise and Washington counties in Virginia, along with Johnson and Carter counties in TN, will be around an inch or less. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 46 25 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 43 24 47 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 43 23 47 26 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 41 20 41 23 / 40 10 10 0 0.
231 PM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Upper level ridge remains parked over the West for one more day bringing dry conditions and well above seasonal average temperatures to our region.
(Today and tonight) A cold front currently located across western KY and West TN will move across the area today, in the early to mid afternoon hours. Through the late afternoon and evening, a drier and cooler air mass will advect into the area behind the front.
The pressure gradient will become weak as this high moves to the southeast, resulting in winds remaining around 10-15 mph this afternoon.
135 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Northwest flow aloft will persist across the area as the low over south-central Canada will continue its slow track east. Temperatures will be warmer today, owing to more sunshine, but running near seasonal values.
A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
Cooler temperatures and dry air will move into the region over the next 12 hours leaving today's storms all but another distant memory. (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Convection is ongoing early this afternoon in the eastern half and a line moving into the northwest ahead of a cold front. Winds are the primary threat with any strong to severe storms that develop, but hail and even an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially later in the afternoon to early evening when low level wind shear is expected to increase with the approaching trough and cold front.
Temperatures will be much cooler today, mostly down into the 40s with a few spots warming into the lower 50s. The wind and cooler temperatures will make things feel brisk out. Tonight lows will fall into the lower 30s, with the potential for frost, perhaps a freeze depending on winds.
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) Weak cold front is currently traversing the Stockton Plateau, but slowing in progression as daytime mixing causes a push back against the front. Lows tomorrow morning will be cooler with upper 40s poking into northern Lea and the Marfa Plateau with 50s elsewhere. Partly to mostly sunny skies areawide as we sit on the southwest edge high pressure.
The remainder of today and tomorrow are largely dictated by the upper level trough over the Great Lakes. A smaller wave is moving through the larger flow which is bring the cooler air and another round of wind near the surface south into the area. Tomorrow, cool temperatures are expected as the higher pressure moves into the area though daytime highs will still likely warm to near 70. Even with the cooler temperatures, drier air will help contribute to near-critical fire weather conditions along with gusty winds. Surface sustained winds may also be a bit elevated as the higher pressure moves through and increases the pressure gradient, though area underneath the high will likely see relatively calm winds.
The gradient will also be tight, as the jet is supporting a 528 dm 500mb upper low over Manitoba/Saskatchewan. The gradient will cause the higher winds west of the Divide.
(Thursday through Wednesday) Fire weather will be top of mind on Thursday as a reinforcing cold front paves the way for more dry air to surge into the region.
This is in between high pressure to our west and low pressure to our northeast. As a result, burning should be avoided due to the higher fire danger threat.
257 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front moving into the Mid-South have cleared the region, leaving behind a few showers in north Mississippi. The rest of today will be dry and clear with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A large upper level trough is currently in place over the Great Lakes Region, and is expected to dominate weather patterns in the coming days.
An upper ridge along the coast will keep clear and dry conditions over the area.
The cold front has moved well south of the area and has left us in a much drier airmass that will only get drier throughout the day. 5 inches across the area, which based on climatology from the nearest sounding location at KMAF, would be in the lowest 10% for October 13. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday with the little bit of cold air advection we are getting behind the front. Have decided to stick with the model blend which shows lows in the low to mid 50s areawide.
209 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A cold front will move through tonight and an upper level disturbance will move through on Thursday.
Winds shift to north with the trough with an hour or two of gusts to around 35 kts.
Winds will remain light, 10kts or less, and skies clear as high pressure continues to dominate the region and promote fair weather. A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
A line of showers and thunderstorms has redeveloped in advance of the cold front.
600 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Today) Showers and thunderstorms continue to move to the south-southeast, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front extends from its parent low over northern Canada, south-southwestward through the Ohio Valley and into the Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, expect a fairly pleasant day with clearing skies and temps warming into the lower 70s.
451 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Current WV analysis shows prominent upper level ridge over the western CONUS. An upper low swirls over the Great Lakes region and the cold front that brought our gusty winds today has now drifted to the south east and now drapes across IL/MO.
Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride as they teeter around the freezing mark with day temperatures above freezing and overnight temperatures below freezing. A large upper level low pressure system continues to circulate over the northern plains. Moving into Friday, temperatures were lowered as there is little confidence that the temperatures will rebound into the low 40s over much of the region. With that said, rain is expected to change over to all snow by Friday morning as the large upper level low pressure finally swings through.
532 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Very little change expected in the short term forecast as we remain squeezed between the Rex Block along the Pacific Coast and expansive low pressure over eastern NOAM. It looks like the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys could see widespread at or below freezing temperatures tonight and issued a Freeze Watch. The upstream rex block isn't necessarily breaking down but shifting inland through the weekend as a kicker trough pushes through the eastern Pacific.
At the same time, a fast-moving cold front should reach the forecast area later this morning, and then cross the entire area by afternoon. Behind the front, dry subsident northwest flow will bring much drier air, gusty wind, and somewhat cooler temperatures.
Although winds may not be as strong today and yesterday, the northwest winds will still be 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts and enough for elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the low afternoon humidity and the dry vegetation.
A cooler and drier airmass has built into the region as of early this morning.
344 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Other than some passing clouds today, expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
431 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 An upper level trough to our east and ridge to our west continues to position the area under northwest flow.
347 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Very little change expected in the short term forecast as we remain squeezed between the Rex Block along the Pacific Coast and expansive low pressure over eastern NOAM. It looks like the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys could see widespread at or below freezing temperatures tonight and issued a Freeze Watch. The upstream rex block isn't necessarily breaking down but shifting inland through the weekend as a kicker trough pushes through the eastern Pacific.
812 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Showers will taper off later today as a cold front exits the region. Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure. Showers will continue this morning as a sfc cold front crosses the region. The showers should taper off from W-E after FROPA, through a deepening upper trough across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region could support a few more showers through early evening as a vort max rotates through the base of the trough. The upper level low will keep southwest surface winds which should keep stratocumulus from developing.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the remainder of the week and through the weekend delivering dry and mild conditions.
Afternoon RH values will once again dip into the lower to mid 20 percent.
533 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Showers will taper off later today as a cold front exits the region. Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure. Showers will continue this morning as a sfc cold front crosses the region. The showers should taper off from W-E after FROPA, through a deepening upper trough across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region could support a few more showers through early evening as a vort max rotates through the base of the trough.
This activity is ahead of an approaching cold front, currently located from the Central Great Lakes through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. As a mid level trough amplifies over much of the eastern CONUS, the front will push southeastward through Central Alabama, arriving in the northwest around sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s, with highs on Friday in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure will sit over the region through the coming weekend maintaining warm and dry weather.
Today A large closed low centered near the Great Lakes region and the smaller closed low off the coast of California continues to interact with a high pressure system situated off the Oregon coast, bringing dry northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s throughout south central and southeast Colorado, with exception of temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the higher elevations. Sub freezing temperatures, from mid 20s to lower 30s, will occur in the mountains and mountain valleys.
547 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Deep upper trough extends from western Ontario into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a closed low is still situated off of the Southern CA coast. At the surface, a secondary cold front extends from southern IL to the Ozark region and finally into northern OK. Looking for cooler temps today compared to Wed in addition to some stronger northwest winds which should be in the 25-30 mph range with higher gusts. Highs today will be close to seasonal normals as they top out in the low 70s. For Sat, we are still expecting a warm front to lift north across the Southern Plains and should stretch across central OK by the afternoon hours.
(Rest of Today) Mostly cloudy conditions remain in place ahead of and just behind the cold front that brought us some needed rainfall (1 to 2 inches in some locations) and some stronger thunderstorms yesterday.
Locations near and south of Orlando will be the focus today for the highest rain and storm chances, as also indicated by this morning's CAM guidance. Storms will develop well ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will pass through the area tonight, with W/SW winds today around 10kts or less veering NW/NNW late and increasing to around 10-15kts. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase after 16z-17z ahead of the approaching cold front.
Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure and associated cold front coupled with ample tropical moisture should support periods of showers and storms through early on Friday. Additionally, cloud coverage should keep temperatures in the low 80s today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with skies clearing. Going into the weekend, mid level high pressure builds into area as drier air continues to filter down the Sunshine State. In addition, there is uncertainty on the timing of offset of the rain, especially in southern terminals as cold front is expected to slowly move across the area. Area of low pressure and associated cold front is expected to approach the Gulf waters through Friday. Pleasant weather with low rain chances and cooler temperatures is anticipated for the weekend. Approaching cold front should support intermittent periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms across fire districts through Friday.
302 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Current WV analysis shows prominent upper level ridge over the western CONUS. An upper low swirls over the Great Lakes region and the cold front that brought our gusty winds today has now drifted to the south east and now drapes across IL/MO.
These clouds will hang around for much of the day out ahead of an upper low meandering off the soCal coast. Highs today at or slightly warmer then yesterday.
Skies will remain clear as the ridge continues to hold influence. Lows on Friday morning will be in the low to mid 50s with a few spots in southeast New Mexico dipping into the 40s. Highs on Friday will be a couple to a few degrees warmer area-wide as the ridge axis moves eastward over West Texas.
700 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Today and tonight) As a cold front makes its way across our region over the next few hours we'll continue to see widespread fog as winds remain light and moisture remains high. A relatively cooler and drier air mass will move in behind the front tonight. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
650 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front currently located across western KY and West TN will move across the area today, in the early to mid afternoon hours. Through the late afternoon and evening, a drier and cooler air mass will advect into the area behind the front.
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were developing across the extreme northern waters ahead of an approaching cold front.
447 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain off the coast through Friday. The marine layer will remain deeper than average keeping the coast and valleys cooler night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending inland across much of the valleys.
Northwest flow will continue across the CWA today and tomorrow as the upper level trough continues to remain to the north and east of the forecast area. A slightly cooler airmass remains across the area today in the wake of a weak front from this morning. This is leading to temperatures being a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the region. This disturbance will aid in developing a leeside low off of the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. The high temperatures tomorrow will generally be around 10 degrees warmer than they are today.
Elevated extension of secondary cold front is currently pushing through the area with some light rain. Highs today will remain the 50s as thermal trough settles over the area. A freeze warning may be needed but a lot of guidance holds temps at/just above freezing. Furthermore, most areas have already seen at least a light frost and the area most susceptible (NW) will likely remain under lake clouds and therefore slightly warmer. Friday will be very similar to today but slightly warmer and drier. Another vort max/cold front then crosses the area Fri night with another chance for some light rain. Strong upper low could support decent surface cyclone over the eastern Lakes during this time with potential for lake-enhanced wraparound precip impacting our area late Mon into Tue as seen on the 00Z ECMWF and to a lesser extent the Canadian.
1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Surface analysis late this morning places a cold front from the Appalachians back through Central Alabama and into Southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and East Texas. High pressure behind this front is resulting in sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the 60s at most locations.