Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms early this week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. Valid through 18/06Z High pressure with VFR conditions across the area.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), Latest IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict the next (TUTT) Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough cell is located just to south of Andros Island. In the middle levels, a deep warm ridge is oriented over the Western Atlantic from near 35 North 60 West westwards to over the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont. Winds tomorrow will be no more than 10 to 15 knots, decreasing even more as the surface ridging weakens to the north.
635 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Tonight-Wednesday: Relatively quiet weather anticipated with passage of upper trough axis.
During the day Wednesday the upper level ridging and weak mid- and upper-level flow from west to east will continue as it has the past several days. Low- and mid-level moisture will be similar to Tuesday but instability under the influence of the upper level ridge will be limited east of the mountains.
High pressure was still building into the region today and will move over the area tonight. High pressure will move across the region tonight with a light wind and clearing sky, along with a bit of snow, temperatures will drop back into the single digits and may flirt with zero or slightly below zero across parts of central Missouri. Further aloft, upper ridging will begin to take shape with the main ridge axis to our west, but with rising heights across the region.
400 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Current surface analysis places cold high pressure stretching throughout the Great Plains. Upper level analysis places modest ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin while low loiters through western Ontario. Warmer air tries to push in on Sunday, though cold airmass at the surface remains quite entrenched over the area and will be quite reluctant to warm up much.
Very cold and dry wx conditions will be the story for the upcoming weekend period, as a strong dome of high pressure builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Temps on Sat will again struggle to reach the freezing mark, and may not even reach 30F, before lows once again fall well into the lower/mid teens Sun morning.
355 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Cold high pressure is building into the region early this morning, with temperatures falling through the single digits below zero and teens below zero. But looking at the areal coverage, and the fact that winds may drop off even more this morning as the high moves in, has led to no issuance of headlines at this time. Temperatures will certainly remain cold once again today as the high moves across the region.
230 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure will shift east out over the Atlantic and away from North Carolina tonight.
Rather quiet weather for today as high pressure remains over the region. Strong low pressure system moves along the Atlantic coast and while the bulk of the precipitation will remain well South of our area, there is a chance that some afternoon snow showers could work their way into southeastern corner of the CWA as well as along the Eastern border of VT.
Regarding temperatures/wind chills: West-southwest flow associated with lee trough in CO will continue to support moderating temperatures through the short term periods.
These clouds associated with digging short wave trough and weak low level convergence. Any clouds that do slide into the area today should clear as low levels dry once again as subsidence associated with upper ridging builds back into the area tonight. low level ridging shifts east with some return waa noted, however the better moisture transport associated with the return LLJ keeps precip to our west.
West to northwest flow aloft in place across the region as an upper ridge gradually slides east across the desert southwest. The ridge axis crosses the Four Corners some time Sunday evening, so up to that point look snow chances along the Contdvd with the focus being on the central mts, and dry conditions across the east. Expect a very cold night Sat, temps in the 30s and 40s for much of the area on Sun, then more mild temps Sun night as winds start to get brisk once again with the ridge axis passing across the state.
On the large scale, Iowa will begin the forecast period sandwiched between an upper-level trough near the Hudson Bay and upper-level ridging beginning to take shape across the mountain West. The thermal ridge will continue to build and shift westward.
Temperatures aloft are considerably warmer than yesterday, but deep snow pack should combine w/ mostly clear skies and light winds outside of the wind corridors to yield wind chills under -20 F over much of the area tonight. Dry on Saturday w/ a continued warming trend as upper-level ridging builds across the Central Rockies.
The upper level low that will bring the next storm in is nearing the CA coast and contains a great deal of moisture. Widespread snow will continue, with areas of freezing rain. After a break Saturday night another Pacific warm front will bring more snow Sunday. freezing rain. and possibly rain as temperatures aloft rise above freezing while the ground is still cold.
217 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure southeast of the area moves off to the east this morning.
Updated to lower overnight temperatures and issue a wind chill WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving slowly eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is edging slowly eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. 500-hPa ridging will build in from the southwest through tomorrow. Overnight lows look to bottom in the lower positive single digits. Highs tomorrow should be near to above freezing, so do expected some melting of the snow to occur. There is good news for people who like warmer temperatures.
Scattered flurries over the south central sections of our CWA at the time of this writing should continue to end from north to south with the passage of a weak 850MB trough. Beyond that arctic high pressure sliding across the region will keep things dry and colder than normal through the period.
However, TDOT reports that roads across much of the TN Valley remain slick and snow-covered, and with temperatures in the teens and 20s through the day, conditions may not improve much until the clouds break late in the late morning/early afternoon once the mid/upper trough axis moves through.
High pressure over Arkansas will allow for more light and variable winds after 00z Sun however. Dewpoints are in the low single digits across much of the state and will fall into the -5 to +5 degree range for most areas overnight. As winds relax somewhat overnight beneath clear skies, temperatures should respond accordingly and fall into at least the low teens if not the 5-10 degree range where the most snowfall was.
Dry high pressure will move into TN as a major southeast storm pulls off the east coast. CSV will have clearing skies by 15Z with building high pressure.
This will combine with rebounding heights and plenty of insolation to allow temperatures to recover back above freezing during the afternoon, with highs expected to peak in the upper 30s and lower 40s for most spots.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving slowly eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is edging slowly eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. 500-hPa ridging will build in from the southwest through tomorrow. Overnight lows look to bottom in the lower positive single digits. Highs tomorrow should be near to above freezing, so do expected some melting of the snow to occur. There is good news for people who like warmer temperatures.
At the surface, strong high pressure will slowly move off to the east. For the lower elevations east of the mountains, including the Denver area. On Saturday, airmass will warm with highs climbing above freezing in the Denver area, while 20s prevail to the north and across the plains. General consensus indicates a wide swath of moist pacific air rounding the top of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. warmer downslope flow sets up with falling pressure on the plains. Highs Sunday on the plains 16-22 degs warmer than the day before. Mtn highs only slightly warmer as a result of the influx of clouds and precip thru the day.
/Issued 907 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017/ Animation of water vapor imagery indicates the short wave trough that contributed to today's snowfall is moving rapidly to our east away from the area. High pressure continues to settle into the Southern Plains this evening. Much of the area should see temperatures rise above freezing on Saturday.
1145 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 A weak high pressure center will slowly move out of the region late this evening allowing winds to turn back to the South.
Latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper level trough moving across eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma. However winds will remain light and with snow cover along with clear skies expect temperatures to dip into the low single digits above zero. Saturday a second surge of cold air will move south in the afternoon as high pressure slides south out of the Northern Plains behind a cold front that will shift the winds back out of the north in the afternoon. By Saturday night, the region will still be under northwesterly flow with a mid-level trough over the eastern U.
151 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure southeast of the area moves off to the east this morning.
High resolution short term model guidance has been pretty consistent in bringing one last band of enhanced snow showers across East Central Arkansas and North Mississippi even as the lower resolution models have backed off of this solution. Dew points are currently in the low to middle teens across most of the region. Saturday and Sunday the headline will remain the bitterly cold temperatures and potentially icy roads as we begin to see some melting/refreezing. We should see above freezing temperatures Sunday afternoon melting any snow that remains.
412 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 A ridge of Arctic high pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A weak trough of low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes tonight.
There could be some brief snow showers mainly later tonight and Saturday across far northern MN with another piece of short wave energy stream south through the upper low. This weaker trough will be focused over the northern Canadian Prairies into Hudson Bay with an area of DCVA pushing into southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario.
The arctic ridge will start to move to our east tonight allowing light southeasterly winds to return by daybreak Sunday. The upper level flow will become zonal for the early part of the week before becoming southwesterly by midweek as an upper level low moves into the West Coast.
243 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Quiet weather today as high pressure settles over the forecast area. High pressure shifts east tonight with surface flow returning to the southeast then south on Sunday.
331 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Ridge of high pressure extending from central Oklahoma northeast through Missouri into Illinois will drift eastward over the next 24 hours. Light west wind will prevail today as the ridge axis transits into the Ohio Valley. This reinforcing shot of cold air will dump temperatures into the low teens and single digits once again tonight.
Snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning with the passing of an upper air disturbance, with most confined to the north and ridges. The lowest H8 temps cross over the region tonight with the reinforcing shot of arctic air. The pressure gradient will be modest thanks in large part to the departing cyclone off the east coast. This will result in wind chill values dropping into the advisory range /-10F to -24F/ and higher elevations teetering with wind chill warning numbers /-25F or cooler/. Wind chill advisory for the higher elevations of West Virginia and Maryland remains in place. Kept the highest PoPs for areas north of I-80 while leaving numbers alone elsewhere. Subsidence inversion ahead of incoming anti-cyclone will shut off lake effect snow later Sunday.
Glass The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad, impressive trough across much of the CONUS. In our neck of the woods, Arctic high pressure will keep the region cold and dry through the period. Given the ridge sliding through bringing light winds, mainly clear skies, and snow cover still present (especially over north-central MO), think temperatures will get very cold tonight. The one mitigating factor will be the ridge sliding to the southeast by 12Z Saturday morning, which could lead to some weak WSW return flow across north-central MO. The ridge will slide to the east-southeast on Saturday. A warming trend will begin Sunday and Sunday night as upper level heights begin to rise, and surface/850 mb winds become southerly/southwesterly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of the region.
/Issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017/ Large upper level trough will keep the majority of the CONUS, including the Panhandles under some very cold temperatures for the rest of today and tonight. As Saturday morning will be our coldest temperatures, high pressure will begin to build slowly over the southwest CONUS and progress towards the high plains area.
219 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2017 Deep NE Pac upper trough will support downstream ridging into the Northern Plains in the period. This will support a WAA regime over much of the region, esp affecting the higher terrain areas. Cold high pressure is now skirting the region, with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the fa separating arctic air from CP air. Deep upper trough will shift east Sunday and support a strong WAA/FGEN response aloft. WAA will begin to affect the high terrain with NE WY and the Black Hills seeing the warmest readings, with rising temps expected tonight. Warmer conds on track for Sunday, with most of NE WY and locations in and around the Black Hills rising above freezing for the first time a long while.
A broad upper low extends from the Mid West north into northern Canada and Greenland. There is a trough extension from that out into the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge extends from the Baja north into British Columbia, resulting in northwest flow aloft over Northeast Montana. Today and tonight and Sunday the ridge will dominate, bringing dry conditions and light winds.
324 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Arctic high pressure ridging will slowly slide south today and allow a weak trough to move into the area from the northwest. An area of cloud cover is associated with this trough and observations and radar trends show some flurries or light snow occurring with the eastern part of the batch of clouds. Once the trough pushes east of the area late this afternoon, the arctic high pressure ridge will return to the area for tonight. High temperatures should be a tad warmer than yesterday, though areas where clouds linger longer may not get as warm. Quiet weather through Sunday is anticipated for Central Illinois as a high pressure ridge shifts through the area with light winds slowly becoming more southerly by the end of the day, signaling the beginning of a significant warming period.
We will likely see a quick fall in temperatures over the southern CWA near the high this evening with the fresh snow and have lowered going low in this area. Otherwise a bit warmer night is in store for the area.
While high pressure begins to build in from the west overnight, the surface wave moving off the SE US coast will spread clouds and precip up along the Mid Atlantic coast later tonight into Saturday. An upper trough over the lower Great Lakes/Ohio will keep the mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mountains, but with accums generally an inch or less. Gusty winds should drop wind chills below zero across the Alleghenies and into the single digits over the Lower Susq Valley.
Dewpoints are in the low single digits across much of the state and will fall into the -5 to +5 degree range for most areas overnight. As winds relax somewhat overnight beneath clear skies, temperatures should respond accordingly and fall into at least the low teens if not the 5-10 degree range where the most snowfall was.
416 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 A ridge of Arctic high pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A weak trough of low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes tonight.
18Z surface data has arctic high pressure from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes. The dry atmosphere is helping to slowly dissipate clouds so there may or may not be some isolate flurries in the highway 20 corridor. Saturday night, the high pressure at the surface is expected to pass overhead toward 12z Sunday morning, with subsidence and dry air aloft setting up ideal conditions for another night of subzero temperatures. While still below normal, Sunday will be comparatively warmer with developing southerly winds and filtered sunshine.
Wide range in temperatures again, but best chance for good warm-up is over the higher terrain where gradient tightest given retreating arctic high over MN/IA and lee trough from central MT into north central WY.
1104 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 High pressure will keep the weather dry but cold through the weekend. The cold high pressure will shift to the east of the area by Sunday and we'll see southerly flow increase. So it looks like temperatures will rebound back to near to above freezing for most of the forecast area.
Much quieter weather expected but cold conditions is not to be ignored in the near term, followed by much warmer temps and chances The tail-end of an ul longwave trough which brought in all of the wintry weather of yesterday, is well east of the Four-State Region early this morning. Subsequently, temps have cratered into the lower to middle teens /with a few single digits/ across southeast OK, northeast TX, portions of deep east TX and southwest OK to lower 20s elsewhere. However, wind speeds appear to be staying up just enough to mitigate this issue, though still quite cold with wind chill readings in the lower teens.
Todays lake effect flurries/fine light snow is occurring across about half of the CWA center along the M59 corridor aided by weak upper trough axis and diurnal heating. As the trough axis moves east and loss of daytime heating any precip will dissipate this evening along with a fair amount of lake effect stratus tonight. Highs will be slightly warmer then today in the mid teens. Temperatures will still remain cold but be few degrees warmer with highs around 20.
The upper level low currently located over central Nevada is expected to continue moving south and a transitional ridge will build in from the west today. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin to weaken as another upper level low moves south swiftly along the Canadian coast. A slight chance of showers will exist on Wednesday afternoon in the extreme Northern portions of the CWA as this low gets closer.
Low pressure will ride along the front, passing to the south tonight. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday through the end of the week.
118 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Another cold night is on tap for the North Country as low pressure over eastern Canada continues to dominate the weather across the Northeast. Temperatures tonight will fall to at or below freezing with patchy to areas of frost likely. High pressure begins to build into the region for Tuesday, becoming the dominant weather feature across the Northeast through the end of the work week.
In addition, a pretty good sea breeze is moving inland across the Low Country. Have the highest pops in the southern portion of the CWFA. but still build the ridge into the forecast area.
324 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 1028 mb high pressure centered over northern Minnesota will gradually drift south.
212 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will bring warm, dry weather to the region today. Wednesday breezy conditions develop for the afternoon and evening, as a vigorous cold front moves through Washington and north Idaho.
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure located off the Middle Atlantic coast early this morning will lose its influence over our weather. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop over North Carolina today before passing off the coast tonight. High pressure is expected to build into our region from the northwest for the second half of the work week.
The northern frontal zone will weaken and wash out as it sags into the area, while the southern one will be pushed to the south by an upper level wave and then a dome of high pressure pushing its way into the region.
An area of low pressure will bring cooler temperatures along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of the area on Tuesday. The system will move away Wednesday allowing for a brief warming trend before the next system moves in late in the week bringing strong winds and cooler temperatures.
Surface observations and short-term forecast also indicated a frontal boundary should form across the region during the overnight, and slowly move northward as a warm front. Not enough confidence to go more than VCSH, mainly before daybreak Tuesday as a surge of moisture interacting with a warm front, and later in the day from daytime heating, then another front passage late in the afternoon.
the forecast area will see a thinning of the blanket of low clouds currently over the region as high pressure builds southward thru the Plains. Models do shift upper low more southeast as the day progresses will halting any major breaks in the veil of clouds. a combination of low level moisture and weak mid level ridging will keep clouds over the area during this time.
Water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridge over southern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. as high pressure aloft remains the dominant feature for our weather over the next two days. Slightly better chance of afternoon and evening convection exists Wednesday over our west as deepening Pac coast trof initiates height falls and backing flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to rise over the next two days per the persistent ridging and gradual shift to downslope winds.
445 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slightly cooler post frontal air mass will spread across Minnesota and Wisconsin today. The upper trough axis is currently passing through eastern central MN and west central WI, which is producing a few pockets of mid clouds. Even with the cooler air mass in place today, temperatures should warm into the lower 60s given the expected cloud trend, possibly even making it into the mid 60s.
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through this evening. Increasing moisture will head our way late tonight and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will drop out of the Gr Lakes.
Current CYS radar loop across the region shows precip rates and coverage lower than 6 hours ago as the upper level low continues to dig south into Utah and Nevada early this morning. Still getting bands of rain/snow moving westward across the High Plains of far western Nebraska and southeast Wyoming. Models show the upper level low stalling once again as it drifts south into Arizona today. areas along the Pine and Cheyenne Ridge will continue to have southerly winds which will likely result in low clouds. Models show the much anticipated warming trend beginning on Wednesday as 700MB temperatures rise above freezing. Not expecting this activity to move into the High Plains due to a weak temperature inversion around 700mb.
205 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A low pressure trough today will bring cool weather with considerable clouds.
157 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Aviation A cold front will drift south through lower Michigan tonight.
the surface pattern is controlled by a cooler zone of high pressure to our north and a stalled out surface boundary to our south. Upper flow will flatten out and our precip coverage will be on the low side. but moisture availability is on the low side along with a flattening upper level flow and weak instability. the lower pops.