Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry conditions should still hold overnight areawide despite the arrival of the low level moisture field, although a few warm advection sprinkles can't be ruled out after daybreak along the moist SWrly LLJ axis over extreme Ern TX/N LA/SW AR. The more organized/deep convection should wait until the late afternoon/early evening as large scale forcing increases ahead of the amplified trough set to enter the Sen Plains. The svr risk will remain in play by late after and especially Monday night as lapse rates steepen atop a strongly sheared air mass, although SB-instability will be limited along a slowly modifying/deepening moist tongue that will spread NNE into the region ahead of the attendant cold front late.
A weak cold front will move into the region tonight, with a few light showers possible. Early morning surface map showed 1000 mb low pressure over west central KS with a warm front arcing northeast through northern IA and far northern IL. In a developing split flow regime, the upper level trof is forecast to close off over the southern Plains later today, then slowly track east through the southern states through mid-week. Temperatures will be mild for the season, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 today and Tuesday, and lows in the low to mid 40s tonight.
304 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. Latest sfc analysis shows 1032mb high pressure anchored along the SE coast early this morning. High pressure will grad shift off the SE coast through the day, keeping it mild and quiet across ENC. High pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore tonight, as low pressure begins to strengthen over TX/OK. Increasing scu along the coast late with the low level southerly flow. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday.
108 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through Tuesday. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Texas on Tuesday, then move east across the southeastern U.
318 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure is forecast to keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley through mid week.
353 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through this evening.
High pressure has started to move more ewd into the srn Atlantic states, thereby allowing a return flow pattern to develop over much of the region. This has certainly aided some of the warmer temps seen earlier today and will translate into this trend continuing into early Mon, with lows expected to fall into the lower 30s/near 30F. As the closed low becomes increasingly cutoff from the polar westerlies, it will likely decelerate as it shifts slowly east- southeastward into the central Gulf Coast region by Tuesday night.
420 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding to the southeast of Kentucky with enough of a pressure gradient to maintain some light southwest winds blowing on the ridges and over the more open terrain. The high is also keeping the skies mostly clear with just a bit of high clouds noted near the Tennessee border. This has set the stage for another night of impressive radiational cooling with a current temperature range from near 40 on the ridges to the mid 20s in the sheltered valleys where winds are basically calm.
353 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A cold front will sweep through the area this morning, aided by a strongly amplified upper trough shifting through the region.
The highest snowfall rates this morning have generally been along the South Dakota border in far southeastern North Dakota. Warmer air pushes into the region starting this afternoon along south to southwest winds.
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the end of the week as ridge advances over the Great Lakes. A slowly building eastern CONUS ridge will bring dry weather and a mix of clouds and sun to the region today.
Temperatures are noticeably warmer than 24 hours ago, hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, with dewpoints creeping above 60 degrees. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered along the Carolina coast and extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico, with the Keys remaining in a fairly tight pressure gradient to the south of this ridge.
309 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 00z data has a stationary front running from the SD/NE border east into lower Michigan while a warm front ran from southwest Iowa into central Illinois. cooler temps can be expected post cold frontal passage but given the seasonal warmup in March this still means highs in the 50s.
521 AM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE A cold front is racing south across the area and will result in gusty northerly winds through mid day, with the strongest winds forecast at KTCC and KROW.
A bit of slushy melted accumulations will be possible for much of our coverage area including the Twin Cities metro this morning as a result of the snow, but actual accumulations will likely remain in the areas where temperatures are already below freezing, along and north of I-94.
1037 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through Tuesday with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Texas on Tuesday, then move east across the southeastern U.
Surface observations this morning show much warmer temperatures versus this time yesterday with current readings in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
A cold front will sweep through the area late tonight into tomorrow morning, shifting the winds to the north.
By early afternoon, a cold front/lake breeze will push inland from Lake Michigan, with temperatures dropping pretty rapidly from northeast to southwest through the afternoon hours. Southerly winds and warmer air will move into southern Wisconsin this afternoon with temperatures expected to climb into the 50s.
Winds will continue to decrease today as high pressure passes through.
854 AM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly high clouds streaming into the area in an anticyclonic NW flow around upper level ridging centered over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee-side trough is extending south from Alberta and strengthening with breezy/gusty SW winds developing along the east slopes of the Rockies.
404 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Today through Tuesday: Cloud cover is beginning to increase across the forecast area early this morning as southerly flow through the lower atmosphere brings moisture back into the region. Model guidance indicate dry air should begin to wrap into the low pressure system through the afternoon, but wrap around moisture will still yield some shower chances as the low pivots overhead into the evening. /NF/ Tuesday Night through Monday: By Tuesday night, a closed low system will be almost east of the state, entering Alabama's region.
1015 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will dominate to our southeast through Tuesday, allowing for moderating temperatures.
This period will have the highest probability for precipitation to fall as mostly rain in the valleys.
929 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure remains in control of weather over much of the eastern CONUS this morning. An upper trough/closed low will pivot into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, with strong southerly flow across the TN Valley filtering in moisture. Clouds will slowly begin to move into the area, but we should see enough clear sky to allow temps to drop into the lower 40s once again tonight. The upper low will deepen as it slowly moves eastward on Tuesday, with showers moving into the TN Valley throughout the day. Latest guidance keeps the area on the northern edge of the low, with winds shifting to the east and cutting us off from the better moisture and instability.
/issued 219 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ The upper trough currently over New Mexico/Colorado will continue to amplify as it progresses southeastward through the day. Current temps behind the front remain on the mild side, mid 30s to near 50 as of 1 AM, and should only cool highs today into the low 60s/70s. Models continue to indicate the chance for light rain showers during the late morning to afternoon as the upper trough axis moves just to our east. Rain chances will move to the east by the evening as the upper low moves over the ARKLATEX region.
956 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will shift offshore today and allow temperatures to warm back to normal levels.
Today Through Tuesday Night High pressure, currently over the area, will continue to slide east through much of today as an upper level trough digs down from the west. Most models show this upper level trough becoming a cutoff low by Tuesday morning bringing the chance for showers and storms to the area.
901 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures and continued dry weather are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure moves off the Carolina coast.
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding to the southeast of Kentucky with enough of a pressure gradient to maintain some light southwest winds blowing on the ridges and over the more open terrain. The high is also keeping the skies mostly clear with just a bit of high clouds noted near the Tennessee border. This has set the stage for another night of impressive radiational cooling with a current temperature range from near 40 on the ridges to the mid 20s in the sheltered valleys where winds are basically calm.
The increase in rain chances will also come with increasing likelihood of MVFR or lower ceilings as a low pressure system moves over the region. /NF/ Today through Tuesday: Cloud cover is beginning to increase across the forecast area early this morning as southerly flow through the lower atmosphere brings moisture back into the region. Model guidance indicate dry air should begin to wrap into the low pressure system through the afternoon, but wrap around moisture will still yield some shower chances as the low pivots overhead into the evening. /NF/ Tuesday Night through Monday: By Tuesday night, a closed low system will be almost east of the state, entering Alabama's region.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A strong and fast moving 500 mb trough will dig across the South Central Plains States Today and Tonight. The passage of this trough axis to our east will pull a mild cold front through the RGV late tonight and Tues morning with milder N-NW surface winds building over the region throughout the day Tues. However, enough low level moisture will pool over the region ahead of the cold front that some areas of fog will be possible mainly across the central and eastern portions of the RGV as the surface winds ahead of the front slacken overnight. The short term temp model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the NAM and ECMWF showing a typical warmer bias over the GFS.
10 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through this evening.
648 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through Tuesday with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Texas on Tuesday, then move east across the southeastern U.
612 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures and continued dry weather are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure moves off the Carolina coast.
522 AM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The pattern remains quite progressive and this morning's exiting storm will be temporarily replaced by transitory ridging this afternoon. Today will be just a bit cooler in the CAA regime behind the departing system. Warm advection begins tonight with the high cloudiness a give away. Some extended numerical guidance wants to put a six in the temperatures of the low valleys of western Colorado late in the week. The third week of March finds us inching closer to April and thus, warmer days.
High pressure will keep building into the region and cause the winds to slowly slacken. Temperatures and dewpoint will return to near-normal today, with temperatures near the upper 70s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
A strong Pacific cold front set off sprinkles across swrn Nebraska overnight. A secondary Canadian cold front will back through ncntl Nebraska today and become stationary across wrn Nebraska late this afternoon. The temperature forecast continues to lean toward the warmer RAP model which was warmer than the short term model blend. A blend of the NAM, SREF, GFS and ECM, however, suggested warmer lows in the upper 20s to near freezing. The forecast is a compromise between the cooler guidance blend and the warmer 75th NBM dataset.
636 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Breezy conditions persist today as warm air continues to be pushed northward by the LLJ enhanced by a leeward trough off the eastern Rockies. Throughout the day, the lee cyclone is expected to make its way across northern Oklahoma eventually traveling the eastern Oklahoma I-40 corridor into Arkansas keeping it well south of our area. Vertical profiles support this potential showing ample saturation through the low layer.
732 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the end of the week as ridge advances over the Great Lakes. Broad high pressure will continue, with dips to near/just above freezing overnight. Long range model ensembles indicate temperatures will continue to trend up the remainder of the week with a swrn-CONUS trough and ern ridge pattern.
709 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (Today and tonight) An amplifying mid-level trough currently moving into the Rocky Mountains states will approach the Plains today. A cold front currently over western Kansas will move into the area this morning and continue moving southeast through the area this afternoon and early evening. Windy conditions are expected today in western Oklahoma, especially behind the cold front that will move through this morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the first part of the period as a low pressure system approaches this afternoon from the west. Today Through Tuesday Night High pressure, currently over the area, will continue to slide east through much of today as an upper level trough digs down from the west. Most models show this upper level trough becoming a cutoff low by Tuesday morning bringing the chance for showers and storms to the area.
640 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. Latest sfc analysis shows 1032mb high pressure anchored along the SE coast this morning. High pressure will grad shift off the SE coast through the day, keeping it mild and quiet across ENC. High pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore tonight, as low pressure begins to strengthen over TX/OK. Increasing scu along the coast late with the low level southerly flow. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday.
00z data has a stationary front running from the SD/NE border east into lower Michigan while a warm front ran from southwest Iowa into central Illinois. cooler temps can be expected post cold frontal passage but given the seasonal warmup in March this still means highs in the 50s.
605 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with continued dry conditions.
914 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with continued dry conditions.
620 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through this evening.
351 AM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The pattern remains quite progressive and this morning's exiting storm will be temporarily replaced by transitory ridging this afternoon. Today will be just a bit cooler in the CAA regime behind the departing system. Warm advection begins tonight with the high cloudiness a give away. Some extended numerical guidance wants to put a six in the temperatures of the low valleys of western Colorado late in the week. The third week of March finds us inching closer to April and thus, warmer days.
Southerly winds and warmer air will move into southern Wisconsin this afternoon with temperatures expected to climb into the 50s.
Areas of lower vis in br may occur tonight ahead of a cold front.
651 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure is forecast to keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley through mid week.
654 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Limited moisture return with the upper trof and associated surface cyclone and front today as it moves across central and eastern Kansas. However cannot rule out a few sprinkles ahead of and behind the cold front. As this trof becomes a closed low this evening over eastern Oklahoma, dynamic lift/cooling aloft and somewhat better moisture flux will lead to some weak elevated instability that could clip far southeast Kansas.
847 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will prevail early this week followed by low pressure during mid week. High pressure will then prevail until a cold front moves through this weekend. Today: High pressure will be centered out over the Atlantic but extend westward and across the Southeast through the day.
649 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will shift offshore today and allow temperatures to warm back to normal levels.
925 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure is forecast to keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley through mid week.
A cold front will sweep through the area this morning, aided by a strongly amplified upper trough shifting through the region.
244 AM MST Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and a continuation of the dry conditions.
242 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will dominate to our southeast through Tuesday, allowing for moderating temperatures.
Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly high clouds streaming into the area in an anticyclonic NW flow around upper level ridging centered over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee-side trough is extending south from Alberta and strengthening with breezy/gusty SW winds developing along the east slopes of the Rockies.
A cold front is sweeping across the area this afternoon. A trof ejecting out of the Denver area this morning is diving southeast and closing off as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
These warmer temperatures will come to areas with minimal to no snow cover, while areas with snow cover see their temperatures improve to the 40s.
An upper trof over the southern/central Plains evolves into an upper low which then progresses slowly to near the lower Mississippi River valley on Tuesday. Depending on where (and if) this potential feature develops complicates when a warm front which develops over the northeastern Gulf may advance northward into the forecast area. Currently, think that the warm front may lift into the coastal counties between mid Tuesday morning through the early evening hours. Highs on Tuesday range from the lower/mid 60s well inland to near 70 at the coast.
The primary challenge is with temperatures, especially tonight as a weak low and cold front sag into the region. This could take most if not all of tonight into Tuesday AM for the low and boundary to depart the service area. As a result, there's likely to be a decent temperature gradient that makes the low temperature forecast tricky, as it will depend on where the boundary is situated by 12z Tuesday. It looks most favorable for areas heading further south/east of Quad Cities to remain near or ahead of the low and thus lows likely to drop no lower than into the 40s. Meanwhile, north of the low and cold front temperatures will drop into or through the 30s with some areas of upper 20s possible in portions of northeast Iowa and far northwest Illinois.
157 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Prominent upper ridging and downslope warming and bringing about mostly clear skies and allowing temperatures to easily climb into the 50s this afternoon. Low pressure will continue to move south lee-side of the Rockies into the area, strengthening an already existent pressure gradient over the Beartooths, and strong enough to bring about winds gusting to 60 mph tonight in the Livingston area, which will be the starting time of a wind advisory.
This afternoon, there was a sharp dewpoint gradient along the MS River, and as low level moisture continues to stream in from AR ahead of the southern part of a split low pressure system, this gradient should start smoothing out on Tue as the system rolls by just to our south.
1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (Today and tonight) An amplifying mid-level trough currently moving into the Rocky Mountains states will approach the Plains today. A cold front currently over western Kansas will move into the area this morning and continue moving southeast through the area this afternoon and early evening. Windy conditions are expected today in western Oklahoma, especially behind the cold front that will move through this morning.
Skies remain sunny through the remainder of the afternoon with temperatures running in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure weakens as it drops southeast over the ArkLaTex region tonight. However, there is some dry air to contend with in the lower levels. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to a light south wind and increase in cloud cover.
The first will be a deep close upper low, currently developing across the nations mid-section. This upper low will push southeast into the MS river valley late tonight, and cross south of the mid- state through Wed night. We will have a stalled SFC/LL boundary north of us both we won't see a ton of shear nor really any instability as this upper low passes. This feature will be out of the picture Wed night, and Thu/Thu evening an upper ridge will quickly slide by. This system will push a cold front across the area Fri afternoon.
Surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the east providing a southeast wind across our CWA. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today through Tuesday: Cloud cover is beginning to increase across the forecast area early this morning as southerly flow through the lower atmosphere brings moisture back into the region. Model guidance indicate dry air should begin to wrap into the low pressure system through the afternoon, but wrap around moisture will still yield some shower chances as the low pivots overhead into the evening. /NF/ Tuesday Night through Monday: By Tuesday night, a closed low system will be almost east of the state, entering Alabama's region.
(Through tonight ) An upper low over western Oklahoma will drop southeast and close off overnight near the Arklatex.
140 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will prevail early this week followed by low pressure during mid week. High pressure will then prevail until a cold front moves through this weekend. Today: High pressure will prevail across the region, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will be considerably milder than the freezing values from the previous two nights. One thing to keep an eye on is the low end potential for a few light showers to develop within the onshore flow late tonight. High pressure on Tuesday is expected to give way to to a deep low pressure system which is likely to move northeast from the Deep South through the Carolinas through the period.
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The pattern remains quite progressive and this morning's exiting storm will be temporarily replaced by transitory ridging this afternoon. Today will be just a bit cooler in the CAA regime behind the departing system. Warm advection begins tonight with the high cloudiness a give away. Some extended numerical guidance wants to put a six in the temperatures of the low valleys of western Colorado late in the week. The third week of March finds us inching closer to April and thus, warmer days.
The overall thinking has not changed much over the past couple of days, with mainly Choctaw County being on the northern edge of the main threat area and just north of where the higher impact severe weather is more likely to occur.
Tonight will be clear cold and calm through sunrise Tuesday, courtesy of 1029 mb surface ridging settling over SW KS.