Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE ANOTHER RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALLS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY REGION. BUT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WHILE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. FORECAST WILL LEAVE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES JUST IN CASE OF A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LOW.
1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM/EC/GFS/JMA (JAPANESE) ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN UNISON ON A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN USA AND A RIDGE OVER THE E THRU THIS FCST. ALOFT: SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF W OF CANADA. THIS TROF WILL DROP S INTO THE LONGWAVE TROF POSITION MON OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPS BUT WITH NO SENSIBLE WX. THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS 2ND TROF RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL FCST UNCERTAINTY. PROBABLY 20F WARMER THAN NORMAL. THU: INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS TURN BELOW NORMAL. THE 12Z/00Z EC BRINGS THE MAIN UPR TROF THRU FRI NIGHT OR SAT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
919 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
800 PM MST SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ RADARS SHOW PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UPWARD FORCING OF MOIST MID LEVEL AIRMASS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER.
820 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LOWS.
THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE LGT RAIN AS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND PROVIDES LIFT ABOVE THE LOW LVL INVERSION. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF -RA MAY REDEVELOP/SPREAD NE ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR W TX THIS EVENING SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS E INTO CNTRL TX. /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS STILL DISPLACED FROM THE TROUGH THOUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF.
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS HAS KEPT A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE PULLING NORTHWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CONSUMED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A 160KT+ JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGHER POPS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY RAPID DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND THE FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MIXING IN THE LOW-LEVELS. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD FROM THE SATURDAY READINGS.
THE UPPER LOW IN WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE TO EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
630 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEST TO EAST AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SATURATE TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED SURFACE FRONTOGENSIS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULDN'T FALL MUCH FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. INTO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID STATE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ON NIWOT RIDGE AND AT THE BERTHOUD PASS AWOS. ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE PLAINS.
629 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Showers and lingering drizzle exited the region this afternoon as the upper level trough driving the activity swept east through the Plains States. As the trough continues east clouds will clear overnight allowing for decent amount of cooling, though we're still only talking about lows in the 40s. Stepping back to look at the big picture, as the trough moves through the Plains into the eastern CONUS the flow will flatten out and then amplify across the Central Plains over the next several days.
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF -RA MAY REDEVELOP/SPREAD NE ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR W TX THIS EVENING SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS E INTO CNTRL TX. /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS STILL DISPLACED FROM THE TROUGH THOUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF.
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Convection over the lower Mississippi Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last few hours. The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties toward Jacksonville.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRUSH FAR NORTH AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY NOON SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING BRISK WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THAT REGION. RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING LIGHT WINDS AT 4-7 MPH AND CLEAR SKIES. LIKELY WILL HAVE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND IS OFFSHORE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE GULF THROUGH 00Z WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINING THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWINGING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A COOLER NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
802 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH.
A SML AREA OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER WRN WI IN STG FORCING IN LFQ OF ADVANCING UPR SPEED MAX AND JUST AHEAD OF RATHER SHARP MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF. A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT NOW ARRIVING AT THE COOS COAST NEAR KOTH AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST SIDE TONIGHT AND THEN THE EAST SIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN, EARLY THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BRING MODERATE RAIN INTO COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50s. These rain chances will be courtesy of an upper low passing well to our south across the southern U.
WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
/issued / An Upper level low continued to make its way across Western Texas this afternoon with a dry slot on the backside of the trof axis. a mid level boundary ahead of the upper low looks to stall near/just southeast of the CWA. before the upper level low pressure finally departs off to the east Sunday night. In the wake of the departing upper level low. a ridge of high pressure is forecast to set up over the Southern Plains. Another low pressure system.
634 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. TOMORROW NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH RIDGE.
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 TEMPS FELL QUITE A BIT THIS LAST HOUR AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING AND MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE LOWER 48. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MAN. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 20S. AND IN THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BLOCKED IN SASKATCHEWAN.
/ISSUED / UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE TEXAS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION FROM CONROE TO CROCKETT SHOULD MOVE WEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE GULF.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OUTER SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS WILL TRAVEL.
717 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LARGE ONTARIO HIGH PRESSURE CELL BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. EASTERLY FLOW OFF THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY FLUCTUATING FROM +3 TO +7 C FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPS NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH IN. SNELSON MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. /61/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS.
700 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE LOWER 48. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MAN. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 20S. AND IN THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BLOCKED IN SASKATCHEWAN.
LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. FOR 00Z TERMINAL FORECASTS POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MID STATE KEEPING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THIS TIME TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROPOSPERE IS QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER 500 MBARS THEN DRIES OUT ABOVE MAKING FOR AN AIR MASS THAT IS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE.
SE TX WILL LIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA SHOULD BE ON THE EAST OF THE TROUGH SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF AREA TAFS. /ISSUED / EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER GALVESTON BAY. COULD SEE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BETTER FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Showers have spread northward into mainly our southeast Missouri counties early this afternoon associated with the upper low over the Gulf Coast. Best chances of more widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.
Clear skies and light winds overnight have allowed radiational cooling to produce lows the last couple mornings cooler than we were thinking.
701 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 AN INVERTED SFC TROF SPANNED FROM SE CO INTO NC IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROF WAS LEADING TO CU ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. HAASE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NW KS AND ACROSS NORTHERN CO. MAN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DROP A TIGHT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH COOLER AIR MAKING IT DOWN THIS FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRI-SUN. FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST.
/issued 235 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ Every day this week will pretty much be a carbon copy of today with clear to partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s thanks to an upper level ridge stationary over the southwestern United States. The interesting part of the forecast will come over the weekend when a trough moves into the western U. pushing a cold front into the area.
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO STAY NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE TAPPED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL AMPLIFY TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS IS CREATING AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM KMQT TO NORTHEAST CO AND TROUGH FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEAST WY. LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE ROCKIES.
A NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TO MAINTAIN AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRES UP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 75 67 76 / 70 80 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 77 66 75 / 70 80 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 76 66 74 / 70 80 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 76 64 72 / 60 80 60 60.
MM AN INVERTED SFC TROF SPANNED FROM SE CO INTO NC IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROF WAS LEADING TO CU ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. HAASE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER QUEBEC WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
704 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
Low pressure area near 35N and 135W is continuing to help funnel in some sub-tropical moisture over parts of the region. The low will move closer to the coast on Tuesday helping to continue a cooling trend.
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
650 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 The mild weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper ridge across the southern tier of the U. In addition an upper level low pressure system positioned over the western Gulf Coast will excerpt some influence on Ozarks weather into Tuesday. A shear axis stretching northeast from the upper level low to the mid-Mississippi Valley will provide some focus for isolated to scattered showers across south central and southeastern Missouri including the eastern Ozarks.
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW CLEARING THE MPX CWA WITH A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE HIGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WE HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS ALL DAY. AND WE ENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST. WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING BENEATH THE HIGH RIGHT NOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND INTO NODAK/NW MN.
633 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILLL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 415 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES WITH THE POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN BY THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS AND A LITTLE FLAT AFTERNOON CU. AND LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN NM.
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST. A DRY SLOT WAS EVIDENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERRIDES AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST LOWS OVER NORTH MS. BY MIDWEEK A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD BUT IT DOES HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THEREFORE THE HIGH POPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD THIS EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL SD. FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS HAPPENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN USA. AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CHANGE.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER REGIME TO TAKE OVER ON TUE WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO WI SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK ACROSS NRN WI AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR AND A GUSTY NORTH WIND FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MI. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIDESPREAD FROST OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH QUITE LIKELY FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
614 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA.