Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Cold front is currently progressing south through the Basin with eyes on the Pecos river valley over the next few hrs. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s and 70s areawide thanks to the cold front, so it'll be quite the gorgeous start to the weekend. The northerly flow behind the cold front will not last long, however as the return flow pattern will shift back late-afternoon and evening with southerly winds forecasted Saturday night into Sunday AM. Temps will moderate back another 5-10 degrees for both the low and high on Sunday as the thermal ridge positioning will yield warmer boundary layer temps that will mix pretty efficiently to round out the weekend.
This low will slowly move to the east today and provide cloud cover, mostly over areas east of the Caprock escarpment this afternoon. This will result in high temperatures a few degrees cooler over the Rolling Plains than over the South Plains. Progressive westerly flow aloft will be underway Sunday as a positively tilted upper level low pressure trough drags across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Westerly wind components will boost temperatures well into the 70s again on the Caprock and probably lower 80s across the Rolling Plains, again 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal. We will pay the price for Sundays warmth, as a potent continental cold front will sweep southward Sunday night with north to northeast winds at least 20 mph and possibly approaching 30 mph.
Cooler temperatures today compared to past couple of days.
With the lee trough's expansion east, southerly winds over the area will increase to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible mainly along/west of Highway 27. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler with highs in the low 50s to low 60s. A cold front will move south across the Tri-State area during the day, causing the winds to shift from the south to north. If the front moves through faster than expected, temperatures may be cooler than currently forecast. An area of high pressure at the surface is expected to move south over the area Sunday evening as cold air also advects into the Central High Plains.
306 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today, though really just close to normal for this time of year. Quasi-zonal flow will continue today as a cooler and drier air mass moves into the Great Lakes region, giving our region a glancing shot of cooler air. With the zonal flow and the polar jet still across the northern tier of the CONUS, this cooler air really just knocks us back to more seasonal levels.
527 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature expected today with building high pressure.
Above normal temps are expected, though they will turn cooler tomorrow.
Dense fog continues in the lower Treasure Valley this morning. Fog will be slow to burn off, keeping temperatures much cooler in the lower Treasure Valley, but should clear out by late this afternoon or evening. A cold front will increase winds aloft this afternoon and overnight, which will clean out the atmosphere. IFR in fog and stratus in the lower Treasure Valley including KEUL and KONO though early afternoon. A cold front will bring gusty west/northwest surface winds and deeper mixing which will end the stagnation by this evening.
A nose of 60F surface dew points works into the region tmrw afternoon, as strong warm advection occurs ahead of the approaching cold front.
As a result, high temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 70s. But in typical Panhandles fashion, a strong cold front will come through and drop temperatures 40-50+ degrees in less than 24 hours.
Some impacts to travel are possible north of I-96 where an inch or two of snow is followed by mixed precip and freezing rain/freezing drizzle before thawing occurs later in the evening.
Very warm temps (15-20 F above avg) are expected by tomorrow afternoon within downslope flow ahead of an approaching cold front, which should near/just enter northern OK by 00Z Mon.
Pretty quiet night with relatively mild temperatures in the lower to mid 30s. Temps Sunday should be about 7-10 degrees higher than today, but the windy conditions will make it feel cooler.
(Sunday through Saturday) The forecast area will be firmly in the warm sector by Sunday morning, with breezy south wind ahead of the approaching cold front. Capping conditions will likely suppress convection for most of the day, with thunderstorms eventually developing along the advancing cold front Sunday evening.
These winds will inhibit radiational cooling somewhat and allow temperatures to stay a few degrees warmer overnight compared to last night, with lows in the 30s. Early Sunday the warm temperatures in the 900mb to 850mb layer will spread into southwest Kansas but these warmer temperatures will get shunted south into Oklahoma late day as a cold front crosses the Central Plains. Based on the latest timing of this cold frontal passage it appears that temperatures will still have the potential to climb into the mid to upper 60s before the gusty northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph behind this cold front usher in some colder air into western Kansas late day/early evening. Possible exceptions to these 60 degree highs will be across north central if the timing of the cold front ends up being sooner than what is currently expected.
300 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 A dry cold front will cross the region late this afternoon.
For Sunday afternoon high pressure will start to head out into Atlantic as temperatures start to warm. The trend for our next work week will be slowly warming temperatures day to day with plenty of sunshine as high pressure and ridging stays in command.
1213 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today, though really just close to normal for this time of year. Quasi-zonal flow will continue today as a cooler and drier air mass moves into the Great Lakes region, giving our region a glancing shot of cooler air. With the zonal flow and the polar jet still across the northern tier of the CONUS, this cooler air really just knocks us back to more seasonal levels.
This has kept temperatures in the low to mid 70s so far today at most island communities. High pressure over the Gulf coast will slide eastward over the next several days, strengthen, and merge with a high firmly established in the Central and Eastern Atlantic. As the high consolidates in the Eastern Atlantic, easterly winds will veer southeasterly by the middle of the week, resulting in above normal temperatures and humid conditions for December.
By 09Z/Mon a cold front will just be arriving in the nrn CWFA and by 12Z s of I-20.
Highs today and Sunday will continue to range in the lower to mid 70s across the region, while lows tonight trend slightly warmer in the lower to mid 50s over interior portions of the area and in the upper 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast and beaches.
1014 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west.
A cold front is moving through and wind will begin shifting to the NNE, especially after 18z.
(This evening through Sunday) Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was situated across the Concho Valley and Heartland counties. This front will drift a little farther south through the remainder of the afternoon hours and then lift north as a warm front overnight. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 50s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be warmer, with afternoon highs in the 70s.
The trajectory of the system across the Rockies will limit deep moisture, although a few showers, rain or snow, may be seen in the Pine Ridge area.
1255 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west.
Cloud cover is expected to remain widespread across the region on Sunday given strengthening southerly flow in the low-levels.
From synopsis, high pressure centered near the Gulf Coast will continue to dictate the marine forecast for the next several days.
255 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Cool high pressure will slide east-southeast through the area tonight.
1034 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021 With persistent cloud cover across the area, and the lack of any warmer air moving into the South Dakota plains this afternoon, have reduced the high temperature forecast 3-5 degrees for most of western South Dakota and the Black Hills. Beneath these cloudy skies, southeasterly winds across the SD plains and the cold airmass aloft will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected for most areas, with highs only in the 30s and 40s.
The low level pressure gradient tightens up significantly as well. However, a pretty strong cold front, with is expected to upslope flow behind is expected to move across the plains, into the foothills from 20Z onward during the later afternoon hours. There could be a bit of elevated fire danger over the southern plains and Palmer Ridge of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon with RH values getting into the teens for a short period of time. For temperatures on Sunday, readings should be about 5-8 C cooler than today's highs, except about 12 C colder over the far northeast corner. Strong winds in the high country will also gradually decrease as the mountain wave relaxes, but breezy conditions will persist.
It will slide eastward overnight in tandem with it's parent mid-level trough. The low will continue to push eastward Sunday afternoon and evening, dragging its attendant cold front through the mid-Mississippi Valley. The combination of the cold front at the surface and ascent in the mid-levels ahead of the trough will be enough forcing to produce another round of showers, mainly across southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Southerly surface flow and southwesterly mid-level flow will advect warmer air into the region Sunday ahead of the cold front and will boost temperatures into the low 60s, 15-20 degrees above normal for early December.
At the surface, low pressure was located across northeastern WY, with high pressure over Minnesota. Cool and breezy east-southeast flow is in place across western SD, with warmer air just to the southwest. low pressure across northeast WY will shift slowly east and north overnight, with temperatures holding steady or slowly rising in southern and western areas. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with some light rain and snow possible late tonight across northeast WY as a strong cold front approaches the area. A strong cold front associated with this system will cross the forecast area on Sunday, bringing very gusty northwest winds.
528 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Low pressure continues to deepen from southeastern MT into northwest SD as a nascent winter storm system intensifies. The elevated warm frontal band which has formed ahead of this system continues to slowly lift northward now from northern SD into south central and far southeastern ND attm, with light snow showing from the Sisseton Hills along an arc toward Bismarck and points west. Though snowfall amounts will drop off appreciably as the low center passes, there will like be residual light snow and appreciable blowing and drifting snow developing across eastern ND by midday and then across northwest through west central during the afternoon.
435 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. High pressure in place will make for clear skies to continue through the overnight. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west.
Attention will now shift to Sunday night as a cold front will push into the region.
Thereafter, a change in the weather pattern will result in cooler temperatures, periods of gusty winds and the potential for precipitation at times. A pair of weak upper lows, one over central AZ and the second just west of northern Baja at this time and they are the reason for the cloud cover over southern AZ. While that is occurring, a longwave trough is developing across the western U.
Low pressure continues to deepen from southeastern MT into northwest SD as a nascent winter storm system intensifies. The elevated warm frontal band which has formed ahead of this system continues to slowly lift northward now from northern SD into south central and far southeastern ND attm, with light snow showing from the Sisseton Hills along an arc toward Bismarck and points west. Though snowfall amounts will drop off appreciably as the low center passes, there will like be residual light snow and appreciable blowing and drifting snow developing across eastern ND by midday and then across northwest through west central during the afternoon.
544 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 The front that is in southern Arkansas will lift north overnight as a warm front. South and southwest winds will be gusty Sunday ahead of the next cold front.
Sunday morning as the upper troughing approaches flow becomes more south/southwest and increase which should help with mixing out the fog by 9 am and likely boosting temperatures into the near 80 to low 80s. Warm/humid weather is expected tomorrow night as we await the arrival of this next cold front. Given the high PWs, pockets of locally heavy rain are going to be possible but all this activity should be moving steadily. keeping the northern counties in the 60s and the low/mid 70s elsewhere). These cooler/drier conditions will be short-lived with the warm front expected to move inland on Tues. In their wake, light onshore winds and a generally zonal flow aloft should result in warming temperatures from Wed on in to Thurs/Fri (with highs in the lower/mid 80s?) and limited POPs.
610 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. High pressure in place will make for clear skies to continue through the overnight. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west.
503 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 A couple of isolated storms have developed along the cold front edging into Gillespie County early this evening. Cloud cover is expected to remain widespread across the region on Sunday given strengthening southerly flow in the low-levels.
924 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy into tonight with ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remaining extended across the area. This will generate a light southerly flow in the low levels, which will again be conducive for fog development overnight. Ridge of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the waters into tonight, with S/SE winds around 5-10 knots.
537 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was situated across the Concho Valley and Heartland counties. This front will drift a little farther south through the remainder of the afternoon hours and then lift north as a warm front overnight. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 50s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be warmer, with afternoon highs in the 70s.
A strong cold frontal boundary will sweep across the Northern Rockies from around the Flathead Lake (this evening) southward across west central/southwest Montana and north central Idaho (late tonight), producing an intense band of snow along the boundary.
Attendant warm front to this Low doesn't look like its going to lift as far north as originally thought so other than the far southern edges of our CWA it doesn't look like mixed precipitation is as much as a threat as previously thought.
Snow should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight as the trough passes through the area. As surface pressure scoots eastward, a tight pressure gradient develops over the region on the backside as the area is sandwiched by the low to the southeast and high pressure meandering to the southeast from southwestern Canada. Expect the pressure gradient to loosen Sunday night as aforementioned high pressure nudges into the region.
535 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Cool high pressure will slide east-southeast through the area tonight.
Upstream observations at Glasgow and Wolf Point have experienced 1/4 mile visibility and heavy snow at times as this upper level divergence has coupled with the low-mid level baroclinic zone to produce bands of heavy snowfall rates. These interacting forcing mechanisms will transition east tonight, likely impacting the Highway 2 corridor of North Dakota to produce similar conditions. Snow should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight as the trough passes through the area. As surface pressure scoots eastward, a tight pressure gradient develops over the region on the backside as the area is sandwiched by the low to the southeast and high pressure meandering to the southeast from southwestern Canada. Expect the pressure gradient to loosen Sunday night as aforementioned high pressure nudges into the region.
739 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Cool high pressure will slide east-southeast through the area tonight.
This trough will bring a shift to westerly winds as it pushes east this morning, but surface gradient remains rather slack across our forecast area until system becomes a bit more wrapped up to our northeast this afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, will begin to feel like another somewhat mild day, with temperatures rising into the 40s/around 50 by noon.
These warmer temps, gusty southwest winds and a dry airmass remaining in place will result in a period of elevated fire weather across portions of western Oklahoma. Otherwise, a strong cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and sweep south across Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday night.
1120 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 The front in south Arkansas will move north as a warm front tonight. More showers/storms will occur this afternoon and tonight as a stronger cold front moves into the state from the Plains.
1048 PM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperatures until low pressure approaches late Sunday. High pressure in place will make for clear skies to continue through the overnight. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west.
Lastly, there may be some low clouds moving into the KGUY area at the very end of the TAF period with the cold front, but will hold of for later forecasts to address the potential. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 70s. But in typical Panhandles fashion, a strong cold front will come through and drop temperatures 40-50+ degrees in less than 24 hours.
1007 PM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was situated across the Concho Valley and Heartland counties. This front will drift a little farther south through the remainder of the afternoon hours and then lift north as a warm front overnight. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 50s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be warmer, with afternoon highs in the 70s.
Fog noted across portions of the Lower Treasure Valley this evening, with coverage expecting to diminish as the front moves through tonight.
A cold airmass and strong northwesterly winds will overspread the region today behind the cold front.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 56 65 34 49 / 30 50 90 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 54 64 32 46 / 10 50 100 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 61 52 62 30 45 / 20 60 90 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 48 63 28 45 / 10 40 90 10 40.
Winds settle after 00z with a strong cold front moving thru at the end of TAF cycle from north to south. To the north, a sharp cold front will plow through the Panhandle with a significant airmass change expected in wake of the front. Current timing of the cold front is reaching the northern most portion of the forecast area by 07z before blowing right through the I-20 corridor b/w 10- 12z Monday AM. 850mb temps will fall about 15-18 degrees post front, which will send temps into the 30s and 40s for the AM with only a slight rebound of 10-15 degrees max for the high.
Let the High Wind Warning stand so as not to flip-flop, but could be a very isolated event, if at all. Highs on Monday will be the lowest of the season, however, topping out only in the single digits in most of the forecast area.
A pattern shift will occur by mid-week, which will result in cooler temperatures and breezy conditions.
A surface cold front continues to slowly move southward, having just crossed into Silver Bow, Deer Lodge, and Lemhi Counties as of 300am. Be prepared for slick conditions if you plan to travel across these aforementioned areas as temperatures will continue to drop below freezing the next few hours. Temperatures will moderate near freezing by the afternoon hours for valley locations, helping to mitigate travel impacts.
This low is forecast to move south and east through the day, bringing breezy westerly winds to the region. This cold front will also bring temperatures in the upper 20s to the southwestern Panhandle and northern South Plains and 30s elsewhere tonight.
For tonight, a strong cold front front will push south across our northern and central counties overnight.
Winds will increase as a cold front shifts into the region late tonight. The boundary itself will shift back to the north as a warm front today. Another mid-level system will move through in the mean flow, with showers and storms developing ahead of a cold front which will be approaching from the northwest this afternoon and evening. The aforementioned cold front will be stronger than this previous boundary. Convection will be enhanced along the front as the low level jet kicks in during the evening/overnight hours, with more of a wind threat evolving. High pressure will move in on Monday night, with clearing, and winds becoming light. We will actually see freezing temperatures, at least in portions of the north and west.
An amplifying ridge off the west coast is forcing the previously zonally oriented jet stream to buckle and dig a trough into the middle of the country. A clipper moving through the jet will push out into the plains today, accompanied by a cold front that will slink south slowly over the course of the day. For this side of the Divide, this means high temperatures a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday, but still running 10-15 degrees above average.
The low level clouds to the east will be following the weak low pressure system over eastern Oklahoma eastward into Missouri Today as cold frontogenesis develops over South Dakota and Nebraska. Model consensus is for mid to upper 60s over much of the forecast area this afternoon, however the NBM is already trending cooler in the northern I-70 counties for the mid afternoon hours, and we might expect this trend to continues owing to the HRRR wind field. Much cooler (normal for December finally) air is ushered by a pipeline of high pressure from the western Canadian Provinces for Monday. NBM at this point is forecasting highs only in the 30s and 40s before the progressive pattern allows another low level jet to develop over southeast Kansas Monday night, drawing warmer downslope air eastward again.
High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather to the area this weekend, with light winds.
Thereafter, a change in the weather pattern will result in cooler temperatures, periods of gusty winds and the potential for precipitation at times.