Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure ridging will keep the area dry and mostly clear at least through the end of the work week. However, the ridging will strengthen the valley inversions over southwest Montana, which will keep winds light there, as temperatures remain cool and closer to normal. A positively-tilted high pressure ridge aloft will keep the area dry and mostly clear through this period, but the main concern will be potentially gusty winds on the east slopes of the Rockies.
And with the stark gradient in the cooler land temps vs. Those that remain offshore will find temperatures remaining closer to the inland forecast temperatures in the lower to mid 40s (except Orlando area upper 40s), and those that do veer onshore will see temperatures rise into the lower to mid 50s (possibly upper 50s for the barrier islands). Current thinking is that those generally west of I-95 will stay on the cooler side of the forecast, but confidence is not high on where the exact cutoff will occur. Normally cooler spots in N. High pressure over the southeast U.
Light rain continues to spread across eastern AR this evening ahead of upper low over western OK. Flying conditions will be slow to improve on Thu as slow moving upper low drifts into the area. Rain will likely mix with snow some across northeastern Oklahoma and in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and might even briefly change over to mostly snow toward sunrise as surface temperatures cool enough for less melting to take place. The best potential for accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces remains across western areas of Osage and Pawnee counties in Oklahoma and in the higher terrain in northwest Arkansas. No significant impacts are expected at this time as surface temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing throughout the event.
523 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Highs should be in the low to mid 40s with dry conditions in central Illinois for at least the next few days. A closed and cut-off upper low over northern TX will migrate southeastward over the upcoming couple of days while central IL remains in a col region between this feature and a large upper trough over southeast Canada.
The main upper level cut off low is currently working its way across the Southern Plains and is expected to wander to the northeast before beginning to rejoin the main trof over the Great Lakes. While in this more northerly flow aloft, a quick perimeter wave slides south over the Midwest on the backside of the main upper level trof. Low cloud cover across western and northern Nebraska will continue to filter south this evening with cigs expected to drop to MVFR late this evening and the low clouds will linger into the overnight hours before scattering Thursday morning.
725 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Canadian high pressure over the southeast U. As the high gradually shifts to the east, winds overnight will begin to veer to the east which will allow flow off the Atlantic to modify the boundary layer across the region with temperatures beginning to recover tonight and Thursday. As the area of high pressure moves toward the mid Atlantic coast on Thursday and easterly flow becomes well established, high temperatures will rebound to the lower to mid 70s across west central and southwest Florida.
925 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Dry conditions can be expected through Thursday with building high pressure.
254 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure ridging will keep the area dry and mostly clear at least through the end of the work week. However, the ridging will strengthen the valley inversions over southwest Montana, which will keep winds light there, as temperatures remain cool and closer to normal. A positively-tilted high pressure ridge aloft will keep the area dry and mostly clear through this period, but the main concern will be potentially gusty winds on the east slopes of the Rockies.
952 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will build north across the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
628 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will persist through Thursday night.
A large and complex mid/upper level cyclone remains over the the central/southern Rockies and neighboring Great Plains which is expected to keep all precipitation to our south across the southern Plains. The low clouds are expected to diminish on Thursday morning with prevailing VFR conditions thereafter.
546 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low centered over the Texas panhandle, with two distinct PV anomalies rotating around the low circulation, the northern most anomaly likely aiding in area of precipitation across the area. While not likely, could see a 1 or 2 hour window with patchy freezing drizzle as things wind down. Otherwise ridge over the Rockies will build over the rest of the period leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. With light winds, some fresh snowcover and clearing skies did push forecast towards coldest solutions tonight, with lows falling into the lower teens in the west.
The Northern Plains sits under diffluent flow aloft this afternoon, with a closed low over the TX/OK panhandles and a highly amplified ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, the Northern Plains are located on the northeast periphery of stationary high pressure over the Rockies.
Coolest temps in the lower 40s will occur over the rural north interior and south interior (Okeechobee). Milder temps closer to the coast, mid to upper 40s over mainland coastal counties but holding in the low to mid 50s immediate coast. Ridge axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually shift south of the area through late week, as a mid level low or trough moving through the southeast U.
Boxell (Issued 135 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020) Tonight through Thursday night: Clear and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the day as high pressure skirts south of the region overnight. Not expecting much from this boundary other than a westerly wind shift, increasing cloud cover overnight into Thursday morning, and slightly cooler temps during the day on Thursday. Skies are then expected to lift and scatter out through the afternoon and highs are looking to be in the upper 30s to low 40s for Thursday, but temps could be a few degrees warmer if clouds clear out quicker than forecast.
910 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region into Thursday.
1232 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will build north across the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Warm air advection will occur from the west/northwest leading to highs in the lower to middle thirties.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with gusty winds expected over the coastal region.
An amplified ridge remains over the area to continue quiet conditions with the potential of morning valley fog. The position of this ridge will result in cooler temperatures overnight, with values around 5 degrees below seasonal normals. The ridge is expected to remain in place through Thursday, with the inversion expected to remain in place.
1042 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Surface ridging continued to impact the region today with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temps. A northwest flow pattern is expected as strong ridging aloft persists over western US/Canada.
A nearly vertically stacked upper low/trough over northeast OK will shift slowly east-northeast today/tonight, gradually becoming more of a sw-ne oriented shear axis that will move through our area tonight. However, it is hard to find guidance that drops temperatures to freezing during this time, even in the higher elevations.
320 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Chilly high pressure will linger over central NC into tonight.
Elongated closed midlevel cyclone was tracking slowly east through Oklahoma at midnight. Widespread stratus will continue well into Thursday morning, with temperatures falling well below freezing through the 20s. Roads will become increasingly snow/ice packed overnight as temperatures fall further below freezing. Expecting the refrigeration effect to be strongest across/near Clark county, where temperatures will struggle to get above freezing.
1150 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 The main forecast challenges over the next few days include continued wintry precipitation this evening, then warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Broad isentropic upglide and a shallow moisture layer, generally under 800mb, is resulting in flurries and freezing drizzle across western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have been hovering right around the freezing mark, while soundings suggest the entire saturated/cloud layer below -10C. The surface and upper lows partly responsible for the wintry conditions slowly work east across the southern Plains, while the cloud deck erodes across Nebraska. A Western US upper ridge nudges onto the High Plains while modest WAA continues at H85. There's potential for even warmer temps, as it seems models have been generally underestimating peak heating the last few weeks under similar conditions.
The local area will remain precipitation free today into tonight in between a series of upper level impulses dropping through the Northern/Central Great Lakes and an upper level low stuck over the Southern Plains.
The blocky pattern will feature a strong western CONUS ridge, with downstream troffing over the eastern CONUS. The pattern is almost like a modified rex block over the western part of the country with low over nw Mexico, and ridging to the north. There is virtually no arctic air to be found anywhere over the western CONUS under the ridge aloft.
122 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region through tonight.
Despite warmer than expected surface temperatures, the atmosphere aloft remains conducive for embedded mixed precipitation mainly in the form of a rain/snow/sleet mix for roughly the northwestern half of the area this morning. The highest totals will be seen in the Boston Mountains where an additional half inch to inch could be seen with localized higher amounts.
Quiet weather continued across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri with high pressure across the Mid Mississippi Valley. At 2 PM, temperatures were in the lower to mid 40s. The CAMs were handling the low clouds to our north and west better than the synoptic models. High pressure currently across the area will shift eastward tonight as a weak shift line moves into the area after midnight. The low clouds currently across eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are forecast to sink southeastward overnight and move into the Highway 20 corridor around sunrise and linger into the early afternoon. This will likely work to inhibit temperatures across the northern half of the CWA on Thursday so the the current forecast of temperatures in the lower 40s may be a couple of degrees too warm.
118 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts strongly amplified ridging across much of the wrn CONUS into wrn CN. Jet streak on the ern periphery of this ridge is ushering increased upper-level moisture and high cloud cover through the nrn High Plains. Farther south, a closed upper low is evident across the srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley. At the sfc, it is a fairly cool and quiet night close to home, with troughing to our east and ridging to our west.
Western US and Canada being under strong ridging aloft will keep our area under northwesterly flow for the next several days.
235 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 A persistent pattern with northerly to northwesterly flow aloft along the eastern edge of the ridge will keep the weather benign today and tomorrow. The main difference is that cloud cover looks less likely, but the warmer air should prevent us from falling out of the 20s overnight.
305 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Over the next 24 hours a deep closed low will continue to deepen as it moves from the Central Plains to the Lower MS Valley bringing the return of rain chances across the OH Valley. Latest surface analysis shows a 1028mb high pressure center over Wayne County, KY with an occluded low over OK/TX. Expect to see a gradual lowering of cloud decks throughout the day while temperatures reach into the mid 40s across southern Indiana and into the low 50s across southern KY this afternoon.
A large and complex mid/upper level cyclone remains over the the central/southern Rockies and neighboring Great Plains which is expected to keep all precipitation to our south across the southern Plains. The satellite data suggest KOMA will remain on the eastern periphery of the low clouds for the next hour or two with increasing potential for prevailing MVFR ceilings from about 08z-12z, per latest model guidance. The low clouds are expected to shift south of the KOMA and KLNK areas after about 11z or 12z with prevailing VFR conditions thereafter.
219 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Another cold night across the mid state, but a little warmer than yesterday with temps currently in the mid 20s to around 30 at 2 am. Upper low will work its way eastward from the southern Plains today, and clouds will increase from the west during the day. The upper low slows a bit and stalls over AR according to the GFS/Canadian, but is a bit more progressive on the ECMWF/NAM.
1227 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will persist through Thursday night.
Easterly surface winds this morning will become southeasterly today as the high moves away. While high temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday and range from the mid 60s to near 70, the difference in low temperatures will be much more noticeable with forecast lows tonight ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
1137 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 For 12/03/2020 06Z TAF Issuance KHGX and KPOE radars showing showers continuing to push into the area along a cold frontal boundary, with the biggest impacts so far being felt at BPT/LCH/AEX. /issued 434 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ The frontal system that brought the region the cold air yesterday and today has lifted north as a series of lows along the next incoming cold front currently west of the Dallas/ Fort Worth area moves slowly to the southeast this eve. High pressure will remain once all the precip ends and the weekend is shaping up to by dry and on the chilly side.
119 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region through tonight.
Cloud cover steadily thins in the north and west though may linger for much of the day in the southeast with the upper low not far away.
Readings will subside with the onset of northerly flow behind the cold front from W to E through the overnight hours. /issued 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ For 12/03/2020 06Z TAF Issuance KHGX and KPOE radars showing showers continuing to push into the area along a cold frontal boundary, with the biggest impacts so far being felt at BPT/LCH/AEX. /issued 434 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ The frontal system that brought the region the cold air yesterday and today has lifted north as a series of lows along the next incoming cold front currently west of the Dallas/ Fort Worth area moves slowly to the southeast this eve. High pressure will remain once all the precip ends and the weekend is shaping up to by dry and on the chilly side.
1001 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will persist through Thursday night.
Upper low centered over western Oklahoma early this morning will move to northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri be the end of the day with a trough extending southwestward over the forecast area to a developing low west of El Paso. Stratus field over the forecast area will dissipate from west to east beginning fairly early in the day after sunrise as the low pulls away from the region. Winds will remain breezy through the morning as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the forecast area between high pressure building in from the northwest and pressure trough/cold front moving across Louisiana. The remnant upper low from today's split will retrograde over northern Mexico tomorrow as the original low gets absorbed into the main upper flow and pulled eastward. Upper ridging will also begin to settle over the western CONUS.
1144 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Highs should be in the low to mid 40s with dry conditions in central Illinois for at least the next few days. With a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis overhead, calm winds and clear skies allowed evening temperatures to dip near forecast lows in the mid 20s in many locations. This will act to stabilize temperature trends overnight as the high thin clouds continue to advance north/northeast. A closed and cut-off upper low over northern TX will migrate southeastward over the upcoming couple of days while central IL remains in a col region between this feature and a large upper trough over southeast Canada.
934 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low centered over the Texas panhandle, with two distinct PV anomalies rotating around the low circulation, the northern most anomaly likely aiding in area of precipitation across the area. While not likely, could see a 1 or 2 hour window with patchy freezing drizzle as things wind down. Otherwise ridge over the Rockies will build over the rest of the period leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. With light winds, some fresh snowcover and clearing skies did push forecast towards coldest solutions tonight, with lows falling into the lower teens in the west.
There appears to be a strong temperature inversion as some obs sites at higher elevations are running warmer than the Valley. Lows in the Valley will be in the lower to mid 20s, with some mountain and Plateau locations in the upper 20s.
Therefore, we should see temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
258 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Mid to high level cloud cover will continue to increase this morning ahead of an upper low pushing north through the Southern Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow will continue to aid in bringing cloudy conditions to the area throughout the day today, as a slightly warmer tropical airmass is ushered in.
839 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 Skies are clearing as the upper low moves away to the southeast. We decreased forecast low temperatures in the low-lying areas in both the mountains and plains yet another few degrees this shift. The main upper low which is swirling across the Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon will gradually weaken with time, while broad high pressure aloft builds into our region from the Northern Rockies. As the upper low weakens tonight, clouds will be clearing across Eastern and Southern sections of the county warning area.
330 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Chilly high pressure will linger over central NC into tonight.
High pressure aloft over the interior west will maintain dry conditions for the next several days.
These temperatures in the northeast will be around freezing at midnight before thicker cloud cover later tonight warms them prior to sunrise. Have updated the low temperature forecast as a result. Temperatures in the northeast are expected to be above freezing before any measurable rainfall occurs so no wintry mix is anticipated there.
358 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today.
1240 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Chilly high pressure will linger over central NC into tonight.
A few slick spots may develop along elevated surfaces and overpasses during this mornings rush hour for areas that do see a wintry mix and/or temperatures dropping to freezing. Ongoing showery precipitation this morning along and south of Interstate 70 is tied to an elongating trough over the Southern Plains and extending northeastward to an upper low lifting up towards Canada's Hudson Bay. Temperatures have been a few degrees warmer than previous model runs have indicated, and while we could still see a brief period of wintry precipitation a bit later this morning. High pressure will stick around the region for several days as an upper level ridge stays entrenched over the western half of the country.
531 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Low pressure over northern Ontario continues to bring cooler temperatures to the region today. High pressure will build south of the region Friday.
Therefore, we should see temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The clouds will gradually thicken and lower tonight into Friday as low pressure develops along the north central gulf coast and moves northeast across the southeast states. A few showers will be possible Friday afternoon from the Nature Coast south into the Tampa Bay area and across the coastal waters as a cold front associated with the low pressure area approaches from the west.
Temperatures are not quite as cold as the past few nights, averaging in the low to mid 20s. Another mild day for early December is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 40s. The low clouds should hold near or north of I-80, which may lead to slightly cooler temps than yesterday for areas along/north of highway 30.
630 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Chilly high pressure will linger over central NC into tonight. The high will shift offshore tonight and Friday with milder, southerly flow expected.
652 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Low pressure over northern Ontario continues to bring cooler temperatures to the region today. High pressure will build south of the region Friday.
450 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 The upper ridge currently over the southeast will gradually slide eastward through the period. A southern stream closed upper low will rotate into the lower MS River Valley by Friday. The closed low center associated with this system will be centered over along the AL/TN/GA border and will move NE through Sat morning. As this system moves through there will be more than enough moisture available for decent warm sector rainfall out before the cold front sweeps through the state Friday night. Instability looks to be minimal, though some may exist in a thin band just ahead of the cold front mainly across central GA.
351 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 A mid level low pressure system and its surface reflection will slowly move out of the southern Plains today. Highs in the 40s/Lows in the 20s generally hold til some 50s/30s work back in as we start to ridge a little toward the mid week time frame.
231 AM PST Thu Dec 3 2020 Strong high pressure is expected through the weekend bringing a prolonged period of dry, stable, and seasonably cool conditions.
Much of what is currently seen on the radar is not accompanied by an ground reports due to dry air in the lower levels. Little to no impacts anticipated but can't rule out a slick spot on a bridge. Rain will gradually increase as the upper low progresses eastward. Guidance has hinted at a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low so adjusted PoPs accordingly. Despite the slower progression of the upper low there will be a strong cutoff in precipitation. Clouds will hang around until the evening as the upper low finally makes an exit.
/issued 240 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020/ The high pressure currently over the southeast United States will continue to move eastwards into the Atlantic Ocean throughout the rest of today and Friday. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer across all of South Florida, with lows in the 50s across the interior, low 60s along the Gulf coast, and mid to upper 60s along the Atlantic coast.
/issued 425 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/ Strong radiational cooling will continue to keep temps below freezing early this morning until wrap around, from an upper level low over OK, moves into the Northern Permian Basin. Cloud cover should clear out by the afternoon but high temps will stay in the 40's area wide and 30s for the higher elevations.
217 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 A quiet 24-48 hours ahead across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle beneath a building upper-level ridge across the majority of the western CONUS.
521 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Dry conditions will continue before precipitation chances return later on Friday and into the weekend as low pressure crosses to the south. Dry conditions will continue today as high pressure remains in control.