Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper high pressure will slide eastward this evening with an upper trough of low pressure moving over Montana behind it tonight into Monday. This upper trough will also bring a surface cold front eastward across the region Monday morning with a small drop in temperatures and a shift to gusty northwesterly winds. Winds will gust to 35-45 mph behind the front through early Monday evening as low-mid level subsidence behind the upper trough helps to bring stronger winds aloft to the surface.
954 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A cold front will bring showers tonight and early Monday followed by brief drying as high pressure builds down from the north through Monday.
218 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Dry conditions with warmer than average temperatures are expected through midweek.
/issued 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ An upper low/trough is centered just north of the Great Lakes with another trough over the west coast. The upper trough over the west coast moves east on Monday with temperatures remaining similar to the previous day.
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 High pressure is sliding eastward and southerly winds have returned to Arkansas.
An inverted trough was located on the end of the boundary over the west Gulf. Light north winds were present across the forecast area with surface dewpoint readings from the upper 50s across southern Mississippi to the lower 70s the Mississippi Delta. In addition, a flatten ridge was located over Florida peninsula to west Gulf.
It's a beautiful Sunday afternoon across the entire area with us being sandwiched between a very large upper low north of the Great Lakes region and the old front that came through a couple days ago stalled out along the gulf coast. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Tomorrow will be another sunny day with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
A weak trough passage this evening will cause a few showers over far northeast oregon and extreme southeast Washington. Otherwise, the trough exits to the east overnight and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. The building ridge will be accompanied with some clouds Monday but light winds and seasonal temperatures.
Near average temperatures, then cooler than normal temperatures mid to late week. A weak upper level trough is pushing through NorCal today. Valley lows will be in the low to mid 40s with 20s to 40s likely in the mountains.
Just north of the Great Lakes, a stacked low sits at the top of an upper trough axis. Highs in the low 70s across Kentucky with areas in southern Indiana only seeing upper 60s.
Quiet weather will continue tonight with ridging overhead.
Increasing winds from the WNW and the possibility for precipitation in the N and NE zones associated with the short wave trough is still expected tomorrow. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Slight ridging is overhead today, which will lead to a sunny but cool day for mid-October.
550 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Weak cold front currently moving through region will stall out just south of forecast area by early Monday morning. Not a lot of WAA with this boundary, so highs will only be a few degrees warmer than today's highs, but near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.
An upper level ridge will build offshore tonight before moving into Western Washington later Monday. This ridge shifts east Monday night.
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Another day of cool temperatures, cloudy skies, and scattered showers as the broad upper level low lingers over the Great lakes for one more day. Not expecting the cloud cover to break up too much overnight under continued cyclonic flow, so went towards the higher end of guidance for overnight lows. Most locations will see lows around freezing, with a few upper 20s possible across western Minnesota where a bit of clearing is possible. Cloud cover should begin to break up tomorrow morning as the ridge axis passes overhead with warm advection and partly sunny skies allowing for temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s.
629 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Pronounced upper level low continues to lift away with our region remaining on the far southeast periphery of the cloud shield and within the breezier west to northwesterly winds. Broad ridging sets in for Monday and will provide for dry conditions, although with a filter of upper level clouds.
For today, well above normal temperatures are expected courtesy of downsloping southwest winds associated with a sfc trof of low pressure over ern NM and ern CO along with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning with breezy north winds in its wake and noticeably cooler temperatures.
Just north of the Great Lakes, a stacked low sits at the top of an upper trough axis. Highs in the low 70s across Kentucky with areas in southern Indiana only seeing upper 60s. Look for lows Tuesday morning in the lower and middle 40s with highs that afternoon in the lower and middle 70s.
Low temperatures should cool into the lower 40s over our more northern zones and along the TN/AL border, to mid/upper 40s south of the Tennessee River. These readings are below seasonable norms now in the lower 50s. Monday night and Tuesday continues to be the focus for rain chances, as a deepening trough over the northern Plains initiates upglide in the vicinity of the old Gulf Coast front.
243 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 08z surface analysis had low over central MT with trough into western NE. Expect cooler temperatures.
High pressure will continue across the area through Monday night. A cold front is expected to pass through the area around Tuesday night. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the area for the later parts of the week. Best chances for widespread frost tonight looks to be over the west central and northwest zones, where the lower thicknesses along with the light winds will coincide. Main precipitation potential during this period appears to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as models suggest a short wave trough will drop out of western Canada into the local area by then.
The second of the two waves will be a cold front due in here tomorrow night; one that is part of a larger upper level system that will be centered over the upper Midwest. Another shot of cooler air will follow Tuesday night's frontal passage.
/issued 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ An upper low/trough is centered just north of the Great Lakes with another trough over the west coast. The upper trough over the west coast moves east on Monday with temperatures remaining similar to the previous day. The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on Tuesday bringing a cold front southward into the area later in the day.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1020 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Central Alabama and extending back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Northwest Tennessee will be cooler than the rest of the area, as temperatures should dip down into lower 40s. By tomorrow, a cut off low will move from the US/Canadian border into eastern Canada, allowing a trough to deepen over the Southwestern US. This will place the Mid-South under a weak ridge, allowing for mostly dry weather. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s with low temperatures Tuesday morning in the 50s. By mid-week, as a low pressure system over the Great Lakes moves eastward, while a ridge will develop to our west giving us dry weather for a short period.
Flat ridge to move overhead tonight with subtropical moisture feeding E/NE from tropical disturbance SW of southern Baja. Positively tilted trough will approach Monday but even with that feature, deeper moisture will remain shunted mostly southeast of the forecast area, although did keep slight chance pops over the southern Rolling Plains Monday night through noon Tuesday.
913 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019 An upper-level trough will bring cooling and a deeper marine layer Monday. Warmer midweek under high pressure aloft. A series of Pacific troughs will force additional cooling and gusty mountain and desert winds for the latter half of the week.
355 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 The next upper level low will track across the Dakotas today into tonight, but the cold front will not pass through until after sunset this evening. Consequently, we expect a very nice day with southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold front that should result in most all areas climbing into the 70s for highs today. Increased wind speeds a bit above the National Blend of Models using CONSMOS guidance to get the higher winds.
Cold front will move through the region early today bringing a minor cool down and a windy afternoon. A weakening upper level ridge shifts over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night and by late Tuesday night downslope pressure gradients begin to develop which will keep temperatures from falling as far.
A weak surface boundary divides high pressure systems over central Nebraska and western Wyoming/Colorado this afternoon. A brief reprieve in fire weather conditions Monday night into Tuesday as a dry cold front moves in from the north. This front will bring increased dewpoints and cooler temperatures.
1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Pronounced upper level low continues to lift away with our region remaining on the far southeast periphery of the cloud shield and within the breezier west to northwesterly winds. Broad ridging sets in for Monday and will provide for dry conditions, although with a filter of upper level clouds. Temperatures will be set back in to the 40s to near 50 (although feeling much cooler than that). Upper level ridge amplifies to our west by mid week with the ridge axis slowly migrating eastward with time.
/issued 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ High pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the Gulf will maintain pleasant dry conditions across the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight through Tuesday with clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s over inland areas to around 70 to the lower 70s along the immediate coast, with highs on Monday remaining above normal with readings again topping out in the mid to upper 80s in most locations during the afternoon. High pressure over the region will maintain east-southeast winds around 10 knots near shore and 10 to 15 knots offshore with seas of 2 to 3 feet the remainder of tonight through Monday with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during Monday afternoon.
Models showing a potential for decreasing clouds across the southern FA, with highs reaching back into the low 40s. Other areas will be cooler, as there is still a lot of snow to melt. With temperatures near freezing both at the surface and the lower levels of the atmosphere there could be a variety of precipitation types. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing during the periods that forecast soundings are warm enough to suggest that rain will fall.
1119 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 The upper level ridge over the region will slide east tonight but give us another night of clear and calm conditions good for valley min temps below guidance. An upper level trough over the West Coast today will move overhead late Monday with no more than some increase in high clouds and mixing of gusty winds to the surface Monday afternoon and early evening. The mid week will be dry and warmer than normal dominated by an upper level ridge.
An upper trough will move into the Northern Plains on Monday. This will bring above normal temperatures to western Nebraska as a prefrontal trough moves in. The air will be very dry to the west of the trough across portions of western into southwest Nebraska. A cold front will move through the area by midnight, with a breezy northwest wind overnight across the east. Lows not as cold from the lower 30s west to upper 30s east. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler from the upper 40s north to the mid and upper 50s southwest.
A zonal flow aloft will be over northern Colorado today with a short wave trough passing to the north late this afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to push into the northeast plains late this evening. The fire danger will be elevated in the high mountain valleys and along the Cheyenne Ridge where the best combination of low relative humidity, less than 15 percent and wind gusts, from 20 to 25 mph will likely be. Northwest flow aloft and Monday night's cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday. The cooler airmass will be shallow with the lower elevations around 15 degrees cooler than today. Meanwhile the higher elevations will only see a few degree cool down.
Stuck with a warmer solution of highs given the overall cold bias in some of the models and actual observations have been trending on the warm side of the solutions. For tonight, an upper level low will move across the Northern Plains.
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A weak, but dry cold front will move east across the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will build back into the Great Lakes Monday night.
Once again the upper pattern this morning is highlighted by the slowing moving cyclone over Ontario, while broad/flat troughing stretches southward across the OH/TN Valleys into the Deep South. Late in the period into Tuesday morning, the plains ridge will flatten as height falls approach from the west, leading to pressure falls and a surging cold front across the plains into the mid/upper MS Valley.
230 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Another nice day in store though an approaching trough will mix things up a bit, literally. The atmosphere remains very dry at low levels so the trough, while providing some ascent, will not produce any precipitation whatsoever. The trough will allow some deeper mixing, however, which will cause some gusty winds this afternoon. The only way to really tell that the trough has passed will be a switch to more northwesterly winds which won't actually happen until much later tonight. Another day, another ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday.
318 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 High pressure will exit the region to the east today as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. High pressure drops back in over the area Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 50s south, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s. Cooler air moves back in behind the front Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the northeast of the state, with an occluding low pressure system over the northeastern portion of Minnesota and into the upper Great Lakes. A cold front from this system will progress southeast over the Ohio Valley today, but this front will slow and eventually stall over northern Kentucky by this evening.
As it does, lee side troughing/surface pressure falls will increase allowing the surface stationary front across southwest Kansas this afternoon to lift northward as a warm front through the day Monday. Some indication already exists overnight in the Panhandles of boundary layer warm advection int he models overnight, and temperatures early Monday morning could be quite warmer int he red hills region than central Kansas counties north of the smokey hill river and far western High Plains counties where lows could still fall into the 30s once again. Some of the bias corrected versions of the MOS and models have warmer high temperatures under this zone of enhanced downslope (meaning highs in the mid 80s not out of the question). A strong cold front dives through the area on early Tuesday morning.
356 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Warmer today with increasing south winds and cloud cover. The increasing southerly flow will allow lower level moisture to increase, especially tonight and early Tuesday ahead of next cold front. Deepening moisture will result in the possibility of scattered showers ahead of and near cold front on Tuesday.
Will maintain visibility restrictions at KFSM centered around 11Z due to expected development of fog along the lower Arkansas river valley.
In regards to overnight lows Monday, much of the region will be in the low to mid 40s, however, those counties along the TN border will be a touch warmer and can expect lows to reside in the upper 40s. Main player around mid-week is a deepening Clipper system that will push through the Great Lakes Tue night/Wed, driving a cold front through the Ohio Valley. Latest model runs remain consistent in squeezing out showers and even a few elevated T-storms on Tuesday night, so POPs are now into the low-end likely range but QPF remains modest at a tenth to a quarter inch.
The aforementioned ridge is fcst to shift to the E today, allowing S/SE wind flow to return to the region. Cloud cover and rain chances wl incrs sloly ovr S AR tngt and acrs the rest of the FA on Tue, as abundant moisture lifts up and ovr the warm front. By Tue ngt, a deepening upr trof in the NRN stream wl drop SEWD fm the upper Plains States.
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough entering the western states this afternoon. Lee cyclogenesis ahead of this feature will create increasing southerly low-level flow overnight into Monday with clear skies continuing for a slightly warmer night tonight and highs back in the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday. Mid-afternoon surface observations report dewpoints in the 40s as far south as central Texas and despite southerly trajectories into Monday night, available moisture remains quite low ahead of a cold front passing through Monday night into early Tuesday.
That said, a compact and fast-moving upper low will dive southeastward through the northern Plains late in the period. Models are in agreement with the pacing and intensity of this feature and show a relatively substantial mass field response as the upper low approaches. A lingering warm front well to our south will lift north, reaching northern LA by Tuesday afternoon/evening. By the end of the period, another substantial cold front will be queued up just to our northwest.
143 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A cold front will bring showers this morning, followed by brief drying as high pressure builds south.
A lee- side low pressure system will develop Monday allowing some WAA to work its way into our area with southerly flow. A weak cold front will push through the region Monday night into Tuesday allowing a slightly cooler airmass to push into our area mid week.
Frost Advisory continues through 9 AM today as temperatures are expected to fall near freezing under clear skies and light winds, which should lend itself to the potential for widespread frost across southern Wisconsin. Otherwise, the upper level low and any associated low level moisture has finally pushed east of the region allowing southern Wisconsin to remain dry and mostly clear through the day today. With the low pressure area out of the region winds will also be much lighter.
A cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday producing gusty northwest winds behind it, cooling temperatures into the 40s and 50s. Near-normal temperatures continue across the area into the weekend with a deepening western trough taking aim at the region by late weekend.
Included TEMPO MVFR due to shallow ground fog at both VQQ and GNV early this morning under mostly clear skies and low level ridge axis.
A weakening upper level trough will move east across Utah on Monday. High pressure aloft will return midweek, bringing significantly warmer temperatures to the region. Cooler temperatures and a more active weather pattern will develop by late in the week.
1029 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 With the low pressure system moving into Ontario, weak ridging is developing over the Rockies, ahead of another trough pushing into the west coast. Monday afternoon, a cold front will start sweeping through the region as a fast-moving upper wave approaches the northern plains.
High pressure is currently centered over the region, allowing for clear skies and temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s this morning. The associated cold front will start moving through the area tomorrow morning before sunrise. This cold front will be fairly weak, with limited moisture and upper level support, so not much, if any, precipitation is expected with its passage. The front should be through our area by noon Tuesday, so highs Tuesday afternoon are expected to be about 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
The warm front will move inland between 12Z and 15Z with ceilings improving to VFR by late morning. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to form along the warm front near the coast around 09Z and moved toward VCT area through the morning hours.
355 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Northwest flow on backside of upper low is still in place over our northeast and may still support local light snow showers this morning.
1107 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Another day of cool temperatures, cloudy skies, and scattered showers as the broad upper level low lingers over the Great lakes for one more day. Not expecting the cloud cover to break up too much overnight under continued cyclonic flow, so went towards the higher end of guidance for overnight lows. Most locations will see lows around freezing, with a few upper 20s possible across western Minnesota where a bit of clearing is possible. Cloud cover should begin to break up tomorrow morning as the ridge axis passes overhead with warm advection and partly sunny skies allowing for temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s. The better forcing/moisture looks to be across the northern half of the forecast area, so have included the highest precip chances north of Interstate 94.
Ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will amplify and spread westward, providing further lift for moisture to stream north out of Old Mexico during the day today into southern Arizona and southern New Mexico. At the same time the Pacific Low to our west will open up into an open trough and become more progressive pushing much of the appreciable moisture available just to our south.
As warm front lifts northward, some convective development expected in the afternoon hours worthy of VCTS mention in several terminals, but generally remaining VFR throughout.
For Monday, a little warmer weather is expected with highs in the 70s. A cold front will approach the area during the day Tuesday, potentially triggering some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
A weak wind shift will enter into the northern part of the CWFA next 24 hours, muted by high pressure that will be the dominant weather feature. We will err on the high side of guidance during the day (with sun), and lower at night. Tuesday through Tuesday night, a sharp upper level trof will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. An associated cold front will move through Tuesday evening.
319 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Its a bit warmer this morning across the Midsouth. Highs should make it into the low to middle 70s across the region. The primary focus on this forecast update will be a warm front lifting North on Tuesday followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
Meanwhile a mid-level trof moving thru CA this morning will have a chance to work with rich moisture Tue AM, especially across the Trans Pecos. Timing of front, passage of mid-level trof and presence of moisture warrant increased PoPs for Lower Trans Pecos into Wed AM. It will be warm Fri-Sun followed by the passing of a trof/assocd cold front on Mon.
In addition, look for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to lift northward into the region by late on Monday morning at LFK and farther northward through the afternoon at our I-20 sites very near 15/00Z along a retreating warm front. Farther north, clear skies are noted with temperatures falling much faster so adjustments have been made to hourly temps and overnight lows to generally bring them down a few degrees in most areas with upper 40s and lower 50s north while slightly warmer temps in the mid to upper 50s are expected across our southern half where cloud cover will be increasing.