Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move into the Big Country during the morning hours, shifting winds to the north at KABI, eventually reaching KSJT and KBBD by late afternoon. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures across much of the area, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Wind speeds will be lighter across southern counties, with overnight lows mainly in the lower and middle 30s along the I-10 corridor. On Thursday, a weak cold front will move south across the Big Country during the morning hours and will drift south to roughly a San Angelo to Brownwood line by late afternoon. The only noticeable effect from the front will be a wind shift to the north and cooler temperatures behind the front.
AND TEMPS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER BY DAYBREAK BECAUSE OF THIS. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WARM UP. WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR UPPER CLIMO. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
1032 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
However with sub freezing temps, we'll keep hitting the SPS and graphical nowcasts hard for any isolated issues that may crop up on the work/school commute home.
941 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 MAIN UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT GRASSY BUTTE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. THUS THINK THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM.
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF A MODEST COLD FRONT BY SUNRISE WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MINOR DECREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS POINT TO HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THIS PUTS THINGS ON THE WARMER END OF MOS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING AREA AND ARE ON TRACK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT.
AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST.
For tonight, a cold front will switch warm northwesterly downslope winds to the north at 5 to 12 mph. Slightly warmer lows will be along the Oklahoma border from 30 to 33 degrees.
AS THE BROAD INVERTED CANADIAN RIDGE CONTINUES TO SURGE SE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THU AFTERNOON. THU NIGHT-SAT: EVEN STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA LATE THU NIGHT WILL THEN SPREAD S/SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE UPPER & MID- MS VALLEY ON SAT. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS WEEKEND A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT WOULD DOMINATE.
602 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WARM UP. WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY AND DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEPT THINGS VFR FOR NOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED TO OUR WEST. DEEP TROF AND MUCH COLDER AIR EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BUT WE HAVE A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT IN THE SHORT TERM DESPITE OUR REGION BEING DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. AND EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD TO GET INTO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING BUT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MAY RESULT IN A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
The low will continue to shift south overnight into Thursday morning. Winds will be light and variable overnight and will then shift to a northerly direction on Thursday as the low shifts south. Since the low level thermal ridge is getting suppressed to the south and west of our area. highs will be considerably cooler than today across E OK. A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to afternoon highs near normal.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. THUS THINK THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
Cloud cover increases shortly after sunrise with the building high pressure overhead during the day Thursday as northerly winds weaken to around 10 mph. Highs were adjusted a few degrees from the upper 30s over east central KS to the lower 40s towards central Kansas.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND BECOME STATIONARY.
RECENT LAV TEMP TRENDS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATE A RAPID FALL OF TEMPS TO FREEZING INLAND BY MIDNIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE GULF.
WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FROM THE FAITH AREA THROUGH PHILIP. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. BUT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS MINIMAL.
609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. LACK OF MIXING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE WARMER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TOMORROW. HAVE TEMPERATURES COOLER PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE/OVERNIGHT FORECASTER REASONING.
955 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 TWEAK A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW SITES WITH CALM WINDS ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN SHOULD BE FOR FORECAST LOWS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL DAYBREAK. VEERING WESTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AT TXK/ELD AND THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS. A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. EXPECT LITTLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA KEEPS THE ERN CONUS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
High pressure will build into the Midwest the rest of the day Thursday, bringing some sunshine to the region. After lows in the teens tonight, maybe even single digits in our cold spots in the northeast, we should get a little warmer for highs tomorrow compared to today. Still our northeast may only see the mid 20s, whereas south central KY should get into the lower 30s.
241 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
WE WILL SEE MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LOWS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS.
1020 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
The official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given the seemingly favorable setup.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR UPPER CLIMO. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
/ISSUED 452 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDING WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE CREATING GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CREATING A CHALLENGE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. IF THERE ARE CIRRUS STREAKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. FREEZING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH MORNING.
217 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016 PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
High pressure will then slide southeast across the Midwest on Thursday and will result in dry weather for the Ozarks. We will again see a good temperature gradient across the region with highs ranging from the lower and middle 30s across central Missouri to the middle and upper 40s near the Oklahoma border.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to afternoon highs near normal.
608 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDING WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE CREATING GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CREATING A CHALLENGE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. IF THERE ARE CIRRUS STREAKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS VALUES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A PREDOMINATELY NW DIRECTION LAST NIGHT TO A MORE E/SE TONIGHT. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KGUY AND SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
412 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND BECOME STATIONARY.
EXPECT THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WENT AHEAD AND LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE AT 7 PM WITH SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER AND SW VA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 44 27 50 / 30 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 38 23 44 / 20 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 21 39 22 43 / 20 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 32 17 38 / 20 10 0 40 TN.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW TO OUR EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP BRINGING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. IN SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A weak cold front is expected to push through the terminals during the day Thursday and result in a wind shift to the north. Lows tonight will also be a few degrees warmer than previous nights, with temperatures expected to be in the 30s and 40s, aside from some upper 20s possible across the Marfa Plateau. As west Texas and southeast New Mexico remain under northwesterly flow aloft the next few days due to the high amplitude upper pattern in place across the CONUS, tranquil weather will continue, with dry conditions and above normal temperatures area- wide. A weak cold front will move through the area during the day on Thursday, though will only be noticeable due to a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures in the mid 60s north to upper 70s south.
656 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
548 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SRN MN/WRN IA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND. OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
1006 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SLOWLY-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF LITTLE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW SEEM REASONABLE. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN JUST BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH TRACE/DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGH END OF THE EXPECTATIONS.
A trough axis stretched into Nebraska and was sliding southeastward toward northeast Kansas. There was enough lift and moisture to produce some flurries and a few light snow showers across Nebraska ahead of this trough axis. This passing trough axis will help to bring increased cloud cover into the area this afternoon through tonight. The next mid level low pressure is forecast to pass over the central Rockies and eventually the plains this weekend.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW CREATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-55MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND HERE AT CHEYENNE.
1012 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. SLOWLY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
As parent cyclone makes way across Great Lakes, its effects will be felt as far south as our FA.
Visible satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds continuing to push south and east, with quasizonal midlevel flow over the region today as well as weak thermal ridging allowing for near normal highs around 60 degrees north to around 70 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley. Light winds and mostly clear skies tonight will set the tone for ample radiational cooling, with lows expected to be 6 to 10 degrees cooler than last night, though a drier boundary layer will preclude dense fog development as observed the past couple of nights. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 20s across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of southwest Texas to the middle to upper 30s for the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.
1025 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENTLY - A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE WARMER FLOW OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT) - LIGHT MAINLY EAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON KEYS WATERS AS A RIDGE OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
646 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS HEADING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER DRYING COMMENCES DOWNSTREAM OF LOW PRESSURE STILL POSITIONED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPPER AIR MAPS TODAY SHOW A LARGE LONGWAVE TROF POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE/ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXTENDING OUT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ENERGY IN THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. TONIGHT'S LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLEST (INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S) ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAIN SETS UP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-65.
GENERALLY KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND A LITTLE WARMER IN THE FAR NORTH/NW.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
REMNANTS FROM BROAD CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
H85 TROF AXIS. WILL FINALLY BE DRIVEN THROUGH AS THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TRANSLATES EASTWARD. USHERING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. WHICH SAW FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA.
921 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING CHANCES FOR A PRECIP MIX AND THEN SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A cold front will move thru tonight and will initially bring with it increasing clouds from the northwest, including a field of low clouds late. While the column will be rather dry overall, the forcing/upper level support provided by this feature along with cyclonic flow at the low levels and the likely presence of a field of low clouds should at least provide the setup for a seeder-feeder and the threat for falling pcpn from this. Leaned toward the higher MOS temps for nighttime mins tonight, and lower MOS temps for daytime maxes on Wednesday for most locales.
SEEDING HAS STOPPED RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP.
A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. AND SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE. AND THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST SIDE.
652 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.