Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong high pressure system will then proceed to deliver above normal temperatures, dry conditions and light winds for the remainder of the week. The current forecast handles the breezy and "cooler" temperature trends well for today. High pressure was centered over Oregon this morning as a low pressure system and associated cold front continued to dive southward across the central United States. For today, a shallow portion of the diving cold front will push across northern Arizona from the direction of the Four Corners.
348 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 20Z water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough stretching from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes region with the Southern Plains at the base of the trough. Meanwhile, a broad ridge covers the eastern Pacific into the western CONUS. At the surface, we have high pressure over the Rockies with a low centered over MI. As the trough slowly moves east this evening, a secondary lobe of energy passes through IA and MO. With the base of the trough in the MS River valley by sunrise, the ridge builds eastward throughout the day Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The season's first strong cold front is currently pushing south across Deep South Texas as a strong 500 mb trough digs into the Southern Plains and then moves off to the east. High pressure will settle in behind the front and dominate through the rest of the short term. Tonight, skies will begin to clear and temperatures will drop into the upper 50s an lower 60s as the drier, cooler airmass continues to settle into the region. Highs will be allowed to reach the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday under clear skies, but relative humidity values will drop to the teens and 20s, making it feel quite pleasant across the area. Radiational cooling will allow Tuesday night to be even cooler than tonight, with lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
Forecast Confidence: High An amplified upper air pattern remains in place across the CONUS with a strong upper ridge along the west coast and a mean trough across the central US. Lows tonight should fall into the upper 30s west to the low to mid 40s elsewhere.
The dry northwest flow pattern continues! A deep mid-upper tropospheric trough will push east through the Short Term period, but the overall shape of the longer wave hemispheric pattern will not be changing much. This will result in the continuation of northwesterly winds in the lower atmosphere, including the surface along with very dry air. Western Kansas will only see a glancing shot from this cooler airmass, but again it will remain dry.
Temps tonight will be much cooler than we've seen in a while with lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE. Max Temps will warm quick, but hold steady in the lower/mid 70s through the afternoon.
The cold front is exiting the region and showers are now well to the east. Gusty NW winds prevail in the wake of the cold front. The sun is winning out over the CAA today as temps across western parts of the Mid-South have climbed into the lower 70s.
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 (Today and tonight) Today will be much cooler across our area, with breezy north winds. With a much drier airmass in place, temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to mid 40s for overnight lows.
With mostly clear skies and this cooler airmass in place, temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide for lows Tuesday morning.
This will especially be the case for locations near the CO/KS border, where lowest temps in the low to mid 30s are expected. Confidence is not high on this potential, but confidence is high for the low to mid 30s. So have issued a Frost Advisory tonight into early Tuesday morning for Crowley, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties to account for this frost potential as well as the potential for temps approaching or reaching freezing. Additionally, it is also appearing another axis from Limon south/southwest to around the Pueblo area will see some lower temps in the low to mid 30 degree range. Continued dry with no pcpn forecast for the next 7 days as a ridge of high pressure remains over the western third of the US, with a cold front expected to push through Wed morning.
332 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Shower activity continues under a broad upper level trough with pieces of vorticity streaming along this trough as a strong upper level jet noses down the upstream portion of the trough.
Much Cooler and Breezy. And, at the surface, a stressed surface pressure gradient is resulting in breezy north winds behind the cold front. Modeled RAP soundings exhibit good momentum transfer from 850 mb down to the surface with frequent gusts between 20 - 30 MPH by afternoon; where the higher gusts likely occurring west of HWY 65.
1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Even cooler today as northerly flow aloft and close proximity of the upper trough, coupled with 850mb temperatures falling to near 0C, bring another 10-15 degree drop in high temperatures. However through the rest of the work week, dry, breezy, and cooler autumn weather is the theme as we remain under the influence of dry northwest flow aloft and the aforementioned broadening upper trough meandering eastward.
Surface ridging over New Mexico today will continue to slide to the south overnight and tomorrow into south Texas.
Deep CONUS trough will pushes east of the Northern Plains on Wed with another of a series of cold fronts passing through during the afternoon or evening. Near freezing temps aloft and at sfc Thu early AM could support a touch of -SW, but at this point it continues to be omitted from the gridded fcst.
434 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Continued broad troughing over the area has resulted in mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. In the west, the cooler 850mb temps near 3C atop a ~52F Lake Superior is also likely resulting in some lake enhancement to showers originating over the lake. As the main trough axis continues to pivot through the region this afternoon, showers are expected to continue. Another feature of interest is the anticipated cyclogenesis within this broad troughing that's expected over Lake Huron, aided dynamically by a 300mb jet streak. At the surface, low pressure is progged to deepen as it lifts northward into Ontario. Models suggest that a high amplitude pattern will prevail through this weekend with a ridge through western North America and a downstream trough through the Great Lakes into the southeast CONUS.
Cold front currently located just west of Nashville.
-Kredensor Fair weather prevails throughout the week, associated with a dry and stable area of high pressure located west of the Rocky Mountains. An unusually strong long wave ridge has developed over the Pacific west coast, placing our region under a dry northwest flow aloft. Furthermore, skies will remain mostly clear aside from some higher clouds drifting through the ridge at times.
302 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday along with increasing upper level flow helping to enhance shower and some thunderstorm chances. Shower chances will diminish/end Tuesday night as the upper trough approaches and the moisture exits to the E with and a much cooler airmass moving over the area.
223 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 The surface cold front has moved through the region, and skies are slowly clearing in its wake.
Redevelopment of convection is likely starting late tonight into Tuesday as a fairly strong upper trough and cold front move through the region.
Dry air and clear skies will allow temperatures to climb quickly into the low to mid 80s but also quickly fall with efficient radiational cooling Tuesday night.
There is still a cold front forecast to work through the region by Tuesday night, setting the stage for more cold air to enter the forecast scene.
/issued 1050 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ A strong cold front is just about to exit the Mid-South. A band of post-front showers extends behind the front to near the MS River with cooler air filtering into the region on gusty NNW winds. /issued 334 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ A strong cold front is moving through the Midsouth, currently located along a line from Union Springs, TN to West Memphis, Arkansas, to Palestine, AR. A deep trough will remain in place over the Eastern half of the US. A closed, progressive upper level low will track from Minnesota, down the Western side of the Mississippi River Valley, to South Alabama by Midweek, then up the East Coast after Midweek.
/CME/ Main focus for this update will be the cold front moving through the area and the associated showers and storms.
1030 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Drier air continues to filter in across the area this morning in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night.
The pattern remains the same through the entire week as northwest flow persists across the nations midsection, while long wave troughing remains anchored over the eastern third of the United States.
201 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 What a difference a day makes as highs have dropped from the upper 90s to low 100s yesterday, to the 60s and low 70s today due to high pressure building south behind a strong cold front that passed through the area last night.
/Issued 1030 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ Drier air continues to filter in across the area this morning in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night.
Visible satellite imagery shows an area of 500mb low pressure over northern Minnesota. Through tonight, one area of low pressure will be closed off over the U. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with the area of low pressure and these should weaken diurnally.
241 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Latest sfc analysis places the cold front just to the west of the Cumberland Plateau.
1047 AM PDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Plenty of sunshine and nice cooler temperatures across all North and Central TX. This will keep the high temps in the 70s, but it will be slightly warmer than today. /Issued 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ /Tuesday Onward/ Tranquil weather conditions are expected throughout much of the week in the wake of the cold front as temperatures fluctuate between below normal to slightly above normal through the rest of the week. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will likely remain in the lower 70s across the Red River, with mid 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere.
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Quite a different feel to the new week compared to last as an upper level trough builds across the eastern U. with ridge building across the west coast. Latest model runs generally favor keeping the higher chances for getting wet across northern parts of the region through Wed. With the swing to northwest flow will come cooler air - significantly cooler by the weekend.
/Updated at 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ Rain showers with a few thunderstorms ahead of the well-advertised cold front, are currently making their way through Central Alabama.
The upper flow will turn gradually more nwly Tuesday with the surface flow acquiring a more downslope component so considerably warmer Tuesday with max temps reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s over the plains. No big changes seen through the upcoming weekend as the CWA remains under a nwly flow aloft on the front side of upper ridging over the western CONUS.
Gusty N-ly wind will continue through the day with gusts of 20-30 KTs in wake of the morning cold front.
For Tuesday, the upper level ridge of high pressure appears to nose into the CWA. The ridge main axis will remain to our west, but generally northerly flow aloft with shift more northwesterly, as backdoor front sags south and west into the region. Upper level ridging will help keep Tuesday morning temps a little warmer, and compressional warming ahead of the the front will help drive highs to around 80 degrees for Tuesday. The backdoor front forces the ridge axis back to the west, and cooler airmass anchors over the region, bringing seasonal temps.
Sunny skies along with rising upper heights should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 70's to the lower 80's. Skies should remain clear into Tuesday night, but lows will be a little warmer with readings generally in the 40's.
221 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Relatively quiet weather is expected in the short term as the ridge starts building across the area in earnest today. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday albeit even warmer, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area. Model agreement continues to show northwest flow maintaining a strong grip over the entire state as a dome of high pressure continues to dominate over the Arizona/California state line. High pressure will build into the area today, with dry conditions expected through the week as the ridge strengthens.
123 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 The cold front that blasted thru our region yesterday now stretches from the Great Lakes south and west to near Brownsville TX. An upper trough is digging south over the central CONUS with a small embedded PV max over MN, downstream from a ridge along the West Coast. Expect below average highs again on Tuesday as the MN PV max drops south down the Mississippi River valley and maintains the cooler thermal profiles beneath the larger scale upper trough.
327 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
The cold front will follow the line, making it into southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle by sunrise.
Skies slowly clearing this evening behind the cold front as the cooler and drier air moves into the region. Have updated the forecast for the cooler and drier air. Temps tonight will be much cooler than we've seen in a while with lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE. Max Temps will warm quick, but hold steady in the lower/mid 70s through the afternoon.
727 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Aviation -Cool and showery; occasional thunder risk -Frost/freeze possible by week's end -- Cool and showery; occasional thunder risk -- As a deep longwave trough continues to evolve/dig over the eastern U. this week, a series of sfc cold fronts will bring progressively colder air into the GrtLks Region.
The cold front has drifted into the norhwest corner of Georgia. 41 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday along with increasing upper level flow helping to enhance shower and some thunderstorm chances. Shower chances will diminish/end Tuesday night as the upper trough approaches and the moisture exits to the E with and a much cooler airmass moving over the area.
A weak cold front has brought slightly cooler temperatures to the area today, especially east of Tucson. These slightly cooler temperatures will be brief as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Western United States.
TFJ A large ridge building across the West Coast will slowly move east over the next few days.
High pressure aloft will continue to build into the area through Tuesday resulting in clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 953 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 The much-anticipated cold front has now cleared the Tennessee Valley, with a cool and drier N/NW breeze and only isolated light post frontal showers persisting over Lookout Mountain at this time. There are a few breaks in the cloud deck mainly west of I-65, which will allow some areas to go "partly cloudy" through part of the night, but as the mid/upper trough remains situated to the west, low level cyclonic convergence will lead to another increase in clouds again toward morning. A nice change in the airmass will be noted on Tuesday with daytime highs about 15 degrees cooler than what we saw today.
915 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 The early morning cold front has moved well east of the area and cooler/drier air continues to work into the Mid-South in its wake. Dewpoints are in the lower 50s across the CWA with 02z temperatures generally in the mid/upper 50s. Looking ahead to Tuesday, generally dry weather will persist across the Mid-South but a few afternoon rain showers are possible across portions of west TN as the upper-level trough swings through the region. The cooler temperatures aloft will provide some weak instability. The cold front is exiting the region and showers are now well to the east. Gusty NW winds prevail in the wake of the cold front. The sun is winning out over the CAA today as temps across western parts of the Mid-South have climbed into the lower 70s.
A cold front has now entered NW AL this afternoon, with a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it approaching the I-65 Corridor attm. Once the front pushes across the area overnight, the chances for showers and storms will dwindle from W to E, and winds will shift around to the NW ushering in cooler and drier air. Morning lows Tuesday will bottom out in the lower 50s. A nice change in the airmass will be noted on Tuesday with daytime highs about 15 degrees cooler than what we saw today.
A high amplitude ridge will remain over the West Coast through the week bringing above average temperatures to much of the Valley and surrounding foothills.
VFR conditions have begun across the area with the cold front now located offshore. The cold front that moved through SE Texas this morning is now over the Gulf waters. Cooler and drier air mass has filtered into the northern third of the CWA and is expected to continue to expand southward and across the rest of the CWA during the rest of the afternoon and evening hours lifting and clearing skies as it does so.
644 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Shower activity continues under a broad upper level trough with pieces of vorticity streaming along this trough as a strong upper level jet noses down the upstream portion of the trough.
644 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Conditions should steadily improve to mainly VFR behind the cold front this evening as cooler and drier air moves in. Temps tonight will be much cooler than we've seen in a while with lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE. Max Temps will warm quick, but hold steady in the lower/mid 70s through the afternoon.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast by the weekend.
Southwest boundary layer flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front combined with a fairly saturated conditionally unstable atmosphere will allow scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters after midnight which will begin to advect locally onshore late tonight and into tomorrow morning. The cold front will push across the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday night with a potential band of showers/thunderstorms, with a few strong storms possible mainly across the northern nature coast.
Overnight lows settle into the low to mid 70s. with its associated cold front moving across the eastern GOMEX and into the FL panhandle. There is potential for strong wind gusts with storms into Tuesday evening as wind fields aloft will increase with the trough approaching. South winds increase to 15-20 knots Tuesday afternoon out ahead of a cold front.
Latest sfc analysis places the cold front just to the west of the Cumberland Plateau.
625 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Continued broad troughing over the area has resulted in mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. In the west, the cooler 850mb temps near 3C atop a ~52F Lake Superior is also likely resulting in some lake enhancement to showers originating over the lake. As the main trough axis continues to pivot through the region this afternoon, showers are expected to continue. Another feature of interest is the anticipated cyclogenesis within this broad troughing that's expected over Lake Huron, aided dynamically by a 300mb jet streak. At the surface, low pressure is progged to deepen as it lifts northward into Ontario. Models suggest that a high amplitude pattern will prevail through this weekend with a ridge through western North America and a downstream trough through the Great Lakes into the southeast CONUS.
/issued 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ What a difference a day makes as highs have dropped from the upper 90s to low 100s yesterday, to the 60s and low 70s today due to high pressure building south behind a strong cold front that passed through the area last night.
936 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Shower activity continues under a broad upper level trough with pieces of vorticity streaming along this trough as a strong upper level jet noses down the upstream portion of the trough.
535 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion Dry conditions will prevail over the region for next several days, as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday along with increasing upper level flow helping to enhance shower and some thunderstorm chances. Shower chances will diminish/end Tuesday night as the upper trough approaches and the moisture exits to the E with and a much cooler airmass moving over the area.
/Issued 123 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ The cold front that blasted thru our region yesterday now stretches from the Great Lakes south and west to near Brownsville TX. An upper trough is digging south over the central CONUS with a small embedded PV max over MN, downstream from a ridge along the West Coast. Expect below average highs again on Tuesday as the MN PV max drops south down the Mississippi River valley and maintains the cooler thermal profiles beneath the larger scale upper trough.
Strong high pressure keeps the region dry with another warming trend.
The surface cold front has moved through the region, and skies are slowly clearing in its wake.
Modest cold frontal boundary continues to work its way southeastward this evening. /issued 251 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ Cold front continues to move through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms continuing along and to the east of a line from Cameron to Bunkie. Cooler drier air will continue to advect into the region tonight as skies gradually clear. Winds will continue to increase in the wake of a cold front moving across the coastal waters this afternoon and evening.
404 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of a ridge will maintain largely clear and dry conditions across the forecast area. High pressure building over the region will result in a gradual warming trend through the middle of the week, with a dry forecast expected to be maintained through the week.
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Showers will develop over the area this evening and continue into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Much cooler weather will persist for the remainder of the week. However, as this trough moves eastward, it will decrease in strength, so it is possible that these pockets of brief, heavier rain may dissipate this evening. By Tuesday morning, the surface cold front will be located just east of the forecast area with the sloped mid-level section of the front across WV and western PA. While most of the forecast area won't see too much more rainfall, increased frontogenetical forcing may increase rain rates in the vicinity of the Allegheny Front (~Laurel Ridge through the Mon NF) along the mid-level boundary on Tuesday afternoon.
The Lower Keys will be most affected, with less affect on the Middle and Upper Keys. Have already updated the forecast to increase rain chances tonight over the Lower and Middle Keys. So as we approach sunrise, the broad area of showers and thunderstorms near the Lower Keys will start to slowly propagate further out across Gulfside waters. Overnight, light and gentle southeast breezes will become better established, as the periphery of high pressure well off to our east expands toward the Keys, and as a cold front makes headway through the western and north-central Gulf. Gentle breezes will become southerly on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as that cold front makes progress through the Gulf and approaches the Keys.