Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
608 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
High pressure at the sfc will remain in control for another day. Expect plenty of sun today with light winds and warmer temps. For the work-week forecast, pattern looks about the same every day, with a juicy airmass in place and a weak flow over the lower Ohio Valley.
1023 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Currently - A surface through mid level ridge extends westward across Florida. Isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are present across Keys waters, with a few of them affecting primarily the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Surface Ridging across Florida will be partially split this afternoon by day time heating over the mainland. Ridging across Florida will maintain light to gentle mostly east breezes with the stronger winds tending over the Florida Straits.
620 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure for the weekend with a rising temperature trend. No major changes to the forecast but did give the highs today and the lows tonight some minor edits, as well as the sky cover for today. The exception will be in the northeast mountains in the highest ridges where isolated convection may be able to form with a slightly greater moisture depth in the lower levels. Should stay below 90 for the most part, but the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands should be expected with the flat cumulus field in place. Sunday should be fairly dry and quiet with ridging in the upper levels and high pressure at the surface.
940 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the area this weekend.
740 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
/28/ Today and Tonight: With upper ridging continuing in place across the region, this will result in mostly dry conditions today.
Today's heat indices will be in the low to mid 100s and tomorrow is looking high enough for a Heat Advisory with indicies up to 110.
623 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Ongoing convection, similar to last night, is currently most focused just NW of the CWA where the low level jet is focused. Max heat indices may near the 105 degree advisory criteria over the west today, but even if the heat index briefly reaches criteria the impacts should be minimized due to breezy winds and the fact that this is the first day in this stretch of warmer conditions.
At the upper-levels, there is a ridge over much of the central half of the country, while a trough sits to the east. At the surface, high pressure is located in the Eastern Great Lakes which will leave us with this one last morning of cool temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. A weak upper level trough in Missouri will struggle to bring precipitation to the Quad State due to the lingering dry mid-levels. As the high drifts to the east, the environment becomes more favorable for precip this evening/tonight with thunderstorm development possible beginning around the evening hours. The slowly drifting upper- level trough will continue to bring a chance of showers and storms Sunday.
919 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure for the weekend with a rising temperature trend. No major changes to the forecast but did give the highs today and the lows tonight some minor edits, as well as the sky cover for today. The exception will be in the northeast mountains in the highest ridges where isolated convection may be able to form with a slightly greater moisture depth in the lower levels. Should stay below 90 for the most part, but the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands should be expected with the flat cumulus field in place. Sunday should be fairly dry and quiet with ridging in the upper levels and high pressure at the surface.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain above average heat. An unfavorable pattern with weak troughiness near the west coast and a ridge of high pressure nosing in from the east will continue to limit our moisture. Ensembles are still showing a strengthening of the ridge's western flank over our area the next few days, which will continue to tend to block any deep import of moisture while pushing temperatures as high as 6 or 7 degrees above average to start the new week.
Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected as upper level high pressure builds in. In a nutshell, upper level high pressure remains centered along the Red River this morning and will be expanding to the east with time, becoming the dominant weather feature by the end of the period. In addition, temperatures will also be on the increase with highs back in the mid 90s although readings will be a little cooler in the higher terrain areas. As such, no heat related headlines will be forth coming this morning but the higher heat index values on Sunday are a little more widespread and may require a heat advisory. Precipitation chances will actually decrease on Sunday as the high pressure continues to build in along with widespread subsidence.
/issued 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ The center of the persistent upper level ridge dominating our pattern recently is slowly but gradually shifting east over the course of the weekend. Daytime orographic convection will also continue daily as monsoon moisture lifts north on the western periphery of the southern upper ridge. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal with a mild overnight, especially locations receiving rainfall. Given the orientation of the ridge shifting east and a weaker upper level trough farther north, convection later today is not expected to be as widespread or make it as far east as yesterday and last night, and the NBM POPs seemed reasonable.
610 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the area this weekend.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front is trickling across southeast Wyoming. It's not much, but it will probably be enough to prevent convection there despite the low level moisture. Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through the period as a broad ridge of high pressure over the southern U.
1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Early morning Cape sounding shows slightly drier air in the low and mid levels but precip water values still 1.
With high pressure situated directly overhead, there isn't much wind to drive the storms.
Models indicate the high to the east will drop south Sunday and into the work week with the moisture retreating back to the east.
/issued 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ A 595 dam ridge (at 500 mb) anchored over the Southern Plains spells a return to more typical early August conditions across the Mid-South this weekend. The mid-level anticyclone is forecast to slide a bit more to the east over the Arklatex through Sunday, continuing northwest flow aloft for our neck of the woods. Most areas will then remain dry tomorrow with highs again in the low/mid 90s, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, generally east of a Jackson/Tupelo line.
1003 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure will remain over the region today.
504 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the area this weekend.
/Issued 740 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
There is a trough axis over the far eastern plains that may spark some thunderstorms over Kiowa and Bent County, so low PoPs have been included in the forecast package for this evening. Relative humidity values will be low tomorrow, so any of the storms that form over the lower elevations will likely produce small amounts of rain and just produce gusty winds. The low relative humidity values will create near critical fire weather conditions, but no Red Flag Warning has been issued either to weak wind speeds or fuels not considered critical.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper ridge firmly in place across TX this aftn, and will continue to anchor itself ewd over our region through the weekend. Otherwise, warming temps will characterize the remainder of the weekend, as abundant sunshine and high pressure aloft aid daytime temps upwards, and increasing moisture and early morning clouds hold temps up overnight.
231 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level ridge is parked over Texas, and we're expecting about the same conditions tonight and Sunday as what occurred last night and today. 19 (Sunday Night through next Saturday) The sprawling upper level ridge that is in place across the southern tier of the U.
325 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Upper level ridging over West Texas has inhibited widespread development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but an increase in low level moisture coupled with just enough heating allowed for some widely scattered activity. The upper ridge looks to remain in place and subsidence from the ridge will continue to inhibit widespread precipitation. Highest rain chances again look to form furthest away from the ridge which again targets the S-SW zones with the higher rain chances. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to today with maximum values approaching the lower 90s coast, mid 90s central and upper 90s well inland.
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure firmly in control of the weather through the Ohio Valley this afternoon with just a smattering of fair weather cu around amid light winds. They all depict ridging in place being impinged by a compact short wave dropping southeast into Kentucky starting Sunday morning sliding into our area by the evening. Sensible weather will feature a slightly warmer night compared to last night but with similar valley fog results - some locally dense spots expected near the rivers/lakes.
12z morning soundings show MaxT values a few degrees cooler than yesterday and this seems plausible as increased cloud cover and precip should keep values a shade cooler than yesterday. Today's heat indices will be in the low to mid 100s and tomorrow is looking high enough for a Heat Advisory with indicies up to 110.
The highest PoPs late tonight should again be SEMO into southwest IL, far west KY, tapering off farther east into southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile region. Some placement issues with respect to the highest QPF. /Texas elongated ridge.
with the region dominated by upper ridging across the southern tier of the country. Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: With upper ridging continuing in place across the region, this will result in mostly dry conditions today.
Low level return flow sets up later today with a cold front expected near western ND by 06Z tonight.
In addition to the lower moisture levels, the afternoon looks to be a tad breezier in the afternoon, which could stunt the sea breeze a bit.
However, farther north along the ridges between Yakima and Ellensburg and in the Kittitas Valley, breezy winds have been observed and will continue through the day.
149 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure makes for a warm and dry weekend. Have included a mention of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms this afternoon over the highest terrain of the Allegheny range with a combination of upslope convergence and a bit more effective surface moisture to work with, but anything that does form likely struggles to survive once it moves off the terrain. Sunday should be fairly dry and quiet with ridging in the upper levels and high pressure at the surface.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain above average heat. Otherwise, daytime highs today will top out well above normal with mid to upper 90s across Santa Cruz/Cochise counties, 101-105 in the lower elevations of Graham, eastern Pima and Pinal counties and 105- 109 across central/western Pima county. An unfavorable pattern with weak troughiness near the west coast and a ridge of high pressure nosing in from the east will continue to limit our moisture. Ensembles are still showing a strengthening of the ridge's western flank over our area the next few days, which will continue to tend to block any deep import of moisture while pushing temperatures as high as 6 or 7 degrees above average to start the new week.
259 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper ridge over the area will result in hot and humid weather over the next couple days.
An upper-level ridge remains centered over the region with clear skies observed over the Mid-South on satellite imagery. A 595 dam ridge (at 500 mb) anchored over the Southern Plains spells a return to more typical early August conditions across the Mid-South this weekend. The mid-level anticyclone is forecast to slide a bit more to the east over the Arklatex through Sunday, continuing northwest flow aloft for our neck of the woods. Most areas will then remain dry tomorrow with highs again in the low/mid 90s, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, generally east of a Jackson/Tupelo line.
Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue through Sunday underneath the northern fringes of the upper high.
217 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure makes for a warm and dry weekend. Have included a mention of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms this afternoon over the highest terrain of the Allegheny range with a combination of upslope convergence and a bit more effective surface moisture to work with, but anything that does form likely struggles to survive once it moves off the terrain.
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The CWA is currently stuck in a region underneath upper level weakness between 2 ridges.
This activity was in response to a 35=40KT low level jet over top of an area of warm advection ahead of a warm front lifting northeast through the region. Latest radar trends have indicated a weakening trend in intensity as the low level jet begins to weaken and lift northeast into Missouri. mostly clear to scattered cloud cover and temps warming fast into the mid/upper 80s were observed behind the warm front. With dewpoints in the low/mid 70s.
High pressure will maintain a dry pattern with seasonal temperatures across the region. Broad ridging remains in place across the southern Plains and Desert Southwest with an active northern stream across the northern tier states of the West. Very dry southwest flow remains across Utah in response to the location of the longwave trough.
Surface ridging will keep winds light, less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 96 72 95 73 / 10 20 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 93 69 93 71 / 0 10 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 94 68 94 70 / 0 10 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 89 62 89 66 / 0 10 10 20 20.
For tonight, another pleasant night expected with ridging over the region.
Behind the front on Sunday temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with plenty of sun.
As the low-level jet noses across central Missouri into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight, heavy rainfall may be of concern just east of our CWA. Overnight temperatures will only cool into the low-to-mid 70s.
S/W energy coming out of the High Plains of western NE is expected to light up convection along the front this evening. That convection is expected to head northeast and feed off the high amounts of instability that will exist, especially over southern SD. Deep layer shear remains somewhat on the low side, but perhaps enough for some organization of storms, with clusters and lines expected to develop this evening. Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning, but then another cold front will be heading south into the region by late afternoon.
338 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Temperatures started out the morning in the low to mid 70s inland and near 80 at the beaches. We remain under the influence of high pressure to our northeast with onshore flow working it's way into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana today. Temperatures climbed into the lower 90s with heat indices from the century mark to around 103 degrees before the sea-breeze. High pressure will ridge across Florida and into the gulf waters through the coming week.
Morning high-res models are in decent agreement with development of a convective cluster in that general vicinity this evening, as it interacts with a warm front over the area, though the finer details have some variation. Not a lot of change in the general forecast thinking through mid week, as the challenge will be with timing of additional nocturnal MCS's rolling along the top of the upper level high across the southern Rockies.
The upper ridge of high pressure remains draped across Texas and much of the South Central US through the short term.
models show the low level jet shifting eastward into Northern Lower MI.
In typical summer fashion, scattered convection this afternoon is expected to diminish after sunset this evening with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
237 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern states will continue to fill over the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week supporting the typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and near normal temperatures. Longwave trough over the region will continue to fill and slowly progress eastward. Highs should range in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon highs should reach the lower 90s for most locations. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
This afternoon, a weak trough of low pressure traverses southern Alberta.
In the longer term we'll see somewhat zonal flow early in the week give way to a western trough and eastern ridge by later in the week. A better chance would seem to be later tonight when the shorwave trough over western South Dakota evident on water vapor imagery work into the area.
1247 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the area this weekend.
An upper-level ridge is analyzed over south CONUS. A mid-level trough is located upstream over central MO. Clouds will increase this evening and into the overnight hours over the northern portions of the Mid-South as the aforementioned weak mid-level trough clips the northern portions of AR and TN as well as the MO Bootheel overnight and into Sunday. The trough will be slow to push out of the region with the upper-level jet remaining very weak.
334 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure over the region this afternoon will move slowly east into the Appalachians tonight. On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region.
A weak trough will move through, but is expected to have little impact other than helping to produce gusty wind this afternoon, and perhaps to lower temperatures a degree or two for the area on Sunday.
344 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The weather pattern will trend drier and increasingly warmer for the first part of the new week. I did not make any large changes to the low temperatures tonight.
329 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Currently - A surface through mid level ridge extends westward across Florida. Despite ridging reaching into the mid levels, ample deep layered moisture, ample CAPE and little to no inhibition has allowed for isolated to widely scattered shower formation with a few thunderstorms. A subtle lower level trough over the Bahamas may be contributing to slightly increased lower level confluence in our area, contributing to the afternoon shower coverage. There will be some nuance in the exact alignment of the lower level ridges, but the implications are negligible.
209 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A large upper level high pressure system will be a main weather feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days.
144 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Between an upper trough to the west and weak ridging to the east, the northern plains is beneath southwesterly flow. Surface map shows low pressure stretching across central SD, and another low over central WY, with the frontal boundary draped across eastern SD and through NE. On Sunday, a Canadian low pressure system will drag another cold front through the region. Cooler, drier weather will spread into the area from northwest to southeast; highs will range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY to the lower 90s across south central SD.
An upper level weakness will persist across the area as the Gulf Coast remains positioned between upper ridges over the southwest Atlantic and over the southwest states. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease this evening with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs will remain hot, in the low to mid 90s.
207 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure remains the dominant feature across Florida with a fairly zonal upper-level flow in place. Given the current position of high pressure, we are seeing fairly light flow across the peninsula. In the lowest third of the atmosphere, there is virtually no wind.
Strong cold front is expected to work south through the area on Sunday evening.
1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Ongoing convection, similar to last night, is currently most focused just NW of the CWA where the low level jet is focused. Max heat indices may near the 105 degree advisory criteria over the west today, but even if the heat index briefly reaches criteria the impacts should be minimized due to breezy winds and the fact that this is the first day in this stretch of warmer conditions.
So another mild night will follow with warmer than guidance temperatures preferred. Sunday will see a bit more upper level ridge influence but with the monsoonal moisture still edging against our western border areas with a low chance for late afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer flow will continue to weaken over the next few days as the ridge de-amplifies while also shifting westward.
High pressure at the sfc will remain in control for another day. Expect plenty of sun today with light winds and warmer temps. For the work-week forecast, pattern looks about the same every day, with a juicy airmass in place and a weak flow over the lower Ohio Valley. As the high pressure departs to ENE on Sunday the models are starting to indicate a chance of showers/storms Sunday afternoon but at the time, confidence on timing and coverage of precipitation is low so left it out of the TAF for now.
1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure continues over Arkansas this afternoon. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected as upper level high pressure builds in. In a nutshell, upper level high pressure remains centered along the Red River this morning and will be expanding to the east with time, becoming the dominant weather feature by the end of the period. In addition, temperatures will also be on the increase with highs back in the mid 90s although readings will be a little cooler in the higher terrain areas. As such, no heat related headlines will be forth coming this morning but the higher heat index values on Sunday are a little more widespread and may require a heat advisory. Precipitation chances will actually decrease on Sunday as the high pressure continues to build in along with widespread subsidence.
The weak boundary that's south of the cntrl TN Valley should also begin to drift back to the north as a warm front overnight, but will likely not reach the local area before the onset of the daytime hrs. With an upper ridge pattern also becoming more entrenched across much of the SE states, afternoon highs look to climb well into the lower/mid 90s for most spots. Any lingering showers/tstms should then quickly diminish Sun evening, with overnight lows trending predom in the lower/mid 70s for most areas. A gen weakness in the upper ridge axis may then allow for a few more showers/tstms Mon, with afternoon highs again climbing well into the lower/mid 90s for many locations. Iso showers/tstms may then linger into the evening period Mon, as lows once again trend in the lower/mid 70s range.