Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Eventually the return flow around the high will also moisten the profile, as surface dew points begin to nudge upward tonight.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 54 65 55 70 / 10 80 90 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 54 63 54 68 / 10 80 90 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 65 53 62 53 68 / 10 80 90 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 49 61 51 65 / 10 60 90 60 70.
303 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Another mild and windy day on tap this afternoon with highs generally in the lower 60s. Somewhat cooler air follows for the remainder of the week, though high temperatures will remain near of slightly above normal, with highs primarily in the 40s and 50s. Mixing within warm low level thermal trough will yield widespread 60-65 degree temps this aftn. Gusty winds have already been reported across northern IL in response to low pressure entering the Central Plains.
By early evening the system will be out of the area and warmer air aloft will be in place. Given the north winds for a good portion of the day, we may not be able to fully mix to the warmer air that will be in this evening. Zonal flow will continue into Tuesday with warmer air in store for the Panhandles.
406 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
The increase in low level moisture and surface convergence over the Atlantic waters will result in isolated showers over the coastal waters this evening with warmer low temperatures overnight.
High pressure and broad ridging will continue to slide to the east this evening resulting in an increase in southwesterly flow aloft.
The lower valleys might not even see precipitation reach the ground from these showers given ceilings are still fairly high. The slightly cooler air mass moving in behind the system means highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Tonight should be relatively quiet although with moisture still present a few showers in the higher terrain can not be ruled out.
707 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 A cold front will continue to push southeast across the Upper Midwest today. The highest precipitation totals will be to the south along I-90, where up to 0.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain well north of the area, maintaining an elevated low level easterly flow across the region.
Despite the clouds, however, strong southerly winds behind high pressure off the Carolina coast will pull temperatures into the middle and upper 60s once again. A cold front approaching from the west will introduce scattered showers to locations west of Interstate 65 by mid to late afternoon. becoming widespread throughout the region tonight as the front makes it to the lower Ohio Valley by morning. By sunrise Tuesday morning, a cold front will likely be stretched from the Great Lakes region into western Kentucky. Precipitation will likely be ongoing ahead of the front, though we should see it gradually taper off from west to east as the cold front pushes through. Temperatures will be at their warmest during the morning hours ahead of the cold front, and then gradually decline in post- frontal conditions.
Rain, with snow on the highest peaks, will spread northward across the area tonight.
An area of low pressure will lift northeast across eastern Kansas this morning reaching Northern Illinois by this afternoon. This low pressure is expected to bring precipitation to Central Indiana later this afternoon through this evening. Surface analysis late this morning shows strong low pressure over Kansas and strong high pressure in place across the Carolinas. Strong warm air advection is expected to continue this afternoon ahead of the low across Indiana. 500mb heights will quickly flatten in the wake of the trough axis, allowing for a progressive setup. This should bring an end to the precip by mid-morning Tue as weak high pressure arrives behind the frontal boundary. High pressure will remain overhead through Tue ngt, with temps quickly radiating into the mid/upr 30s and light winds.
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Winds will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly through 16Z as a cold front makes its way through the region. Until then, zonal flow aloft will dominate as a closed off upper low churns off the southern California coast this week.
High pressure in S Manitoba will move into the Red river valley today with diminishing winds. High pressure over NW MN this evening will promote temp drop into the upper single digits before midnight in NW MN, before mid level moisture/cloud cover moves in. Tuesday will see 500 mb short wave move trough move into central SD by 00z Wed. Out ahead of trough will be an area of light snow, skirting the far south with very light snow amounts (a few tenths).
GOES-16 satellite trends and 00z upper air analysis depict an upper level ridge axis now centered near the Carolinas while an upper level jet transports mid/upper level moisture into then Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from the Pacific Ocean.
635 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning today as high pressure shifts off the Carolina coasts. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
944 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will shift offshore into the middle of this week.
Models this cycle continue to present temperatures which are warmer than usual early March temperatures, and that looks reasonable.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s and skies are mostly cloudy. from synopsis, high pressure currently centered near Bermuda will slowly weaken as it drops southward into the Florida Peninsula over the next few days.
1016 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning today as high pressure shifts off the Carolina coasts. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Temperature curve is stabilizing now as we head to the lower to possibly middle 70s. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
Tonight/Tuesday, the upper system moves east and a flat ridge develops over the region/CWA.
A slow moving and weakening cold front will approach the area from the west on Tuesday and then stall across the region through mid to late week. Strengthening southerly return flow between this high and a cold front advancing east into the middle MS Valley and central Plains, eventually into parts of the lower Ohio Valley Monday night, will result in warm and breezy conditions this afternoon. Milder overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
649 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Another mild and windy day on tap this afternoon with highs generally in the lower 60s. Somewhat cooler air follows for the remainder of the week, though high temperatures will remain near of slightly above normal, with highs primarily in the 40s and 50s. Mixing within warm low level thermal trough will yield widespread 60-65 degree temps this aftn.
Scattered showers continue to spread northeast across the region while a cold front continues to push south through the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday should top out in the lower to mid 50s with warmer southerly return flow setting up by late in the day. This will drag a trailing a cold front across much of Nebraska and western Iowa.
Temperatures dropped rapidly and northerly winds picked up in the wake of a cold front last night. The thermal profile is becoming increasingly complicated due to strong CAA in the low levels (H85 to sfc). As of 08z, most reporting locations are hovering right near the freezing mark. Bring low end PoP back into southwest and north central Neb as a warm front lifts into the region. This introduces a mixed precip/light icing threat and have included freezing rain mention in the wx type. Looking at a nice rebound in temps with forecast highs in the 50s and 60s with the warm front passage and downsloping winds at H85.
As the high shifts eastward, surface flow will become more southerly through the day, bringing increasing moisture. As the upper trough departs and upper flow becomes zonal, the front will become stationary.
The associated cold front will move through most of the region overnight, and bring an end to the precipitation.
717 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will shift offshore into the middle of this week.
The aforementioned storm system continues to track towards the Great Lakes region and drag an attendant cold front through Mid MS Valley and NW portions of the TN Valley through Tuesday.
Once these thunderstorms exit early this morning, not expecting more development of TS until later tonight as the Low core arrives. As the Low slides across northern Illinois tonight, this will push the strong winds eastward. Mid-week, will feature a system that progresses through the lower-Mississippi River/Tennessee Valley region, which will bring the opportunity for rainfall across southern Illinois. High pressure over eastern Canada at the same time, will help to hold moisture around the Great Lakes.
425 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 A cold front will continue to push southeast across the Upper Midwest today. The highest precipitation totals will be to the south along I-90, where up to 0.
610 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning today as high pressure shifts off the Carolina coasts. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
More seasonal temperatures are likely today as cooler air spreads into western Kansas behind the aforementioned front.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
Temperatures will trend slightly cooler into the second half of the week, but still above average for this time of year.
650 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cold front has sliced through the CWA, with post-frontal elevated convection behind it, as was expected. A warm layer above the surface could give us some mixed precip early this morning for roughly the northern half of the CWA this morning before the warm and elevated nose of warmer air aloft finally gets shunted south/southeast. Once again we will have a chance of light mixed precipitation of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain, but any amounts of frozen precipitation will be small, if it even occurs at all. Some light mixed precipitation will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning thanks to isentropic lift aloft and surface temperatures dropping below freezing.
528 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Water vapor shows large trof over the western/central CONUS. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas. Slightly cooler temps expected with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
The low to mid clouds will slowly exit to the southeast through the day today. Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure will push a trough along the SD/WY/NE border this evening. The trough will shift into south central SD Tuesday morning, and southeastern SD Tuesday afternoon, while a ridge of high pressure lingers along the ND/SD border. At 500mb west to southwest flow aloft will continue, with weak disturbances moving trough. A stronger feature, trailing from the low moving across central to eastern Canada today through tonight, will move in from the west during the daylight hours Tuesday.
With widespread overcast conditions in place this evening to inhibit radiative cooling, tonight's low temperatures in the low to mid 60s will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal for early March.
Lows tonight will be slightly warmer in the east central, staying in the teens, while the southwest will see lows in the mid 20s.
1029 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Aviation sections updated An area of low pressure will lift northeast across eastern Kansas this morning reaching Northern Illinois by this afternoon. This low pressure is expected to bring precipitation to Central Indiana later this afternoon through this evening. Surface analysis late this morning shows strong low pressure over Kansas and strong high pressure in place across the Carolinas. Strong warm air advection is expected to continue this afternoon ahead of the low across Indiana. 500mb heights will quickly flatten in the wake of the trough axis, allowing for a progressive setup. This should bring an end to the precip by mid-morning Tue as weak high pressure arrives behind the frontal boundary. High pressure will remain overhead through Tue ngt, with temps quickly radiating into the mid/upr 30s and light winds.
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will bring warm well above average temperatures and dry conditions today. Showers will return Tuesday when a cold front moves through the region.
Further west a closed upper low spun over the eastern Pacific and energy within the northern stream moved across the northern Rockies and central Canada. At the surface, low pressure in the lee of the central Rockies favored a tight pressure gradient and southerly winds. Once it begins to push east of the forecast area, subsidence is forecast to increase in the wake of the upper low and precip should come to an end from west to east during the afternoon. Have trended highs cooler for today. The weather is forecast to remain quiet overnight tonight with surface ridging over the area and nearly zonal flow aloft.
The main area is to the south where a little weak instability along the forcing of the low level jet will bring showers into mostly northwest IA. Lowered highs a bit as upper stream advection of colder air will keep the low levels on the colder side. This should mean highs in the mid 30s along highway 14 into southwest MN, near 40 along I-90 and in the lower to mid 40s closer to the Missouri River.
With additional sunshine and warm advection continuing, the higher starting point will support higher max temperature, which is now reflected in the forecast. These values are more in line with model consensus, though it remains possible locations may even reach highs two or three degrees warmer depending on timing and thickness of incoming clouds. Widespread rain showers are expected in advance of the weakening cold front on Tuesday. Onset time for rain across eastern Ohio continues to be around midnight Monday night into Tuesday, reaching the ridges around dawn on Tuesday. Lingering showers will remain across the higher elevations through around midnight Tuesday night.
High pressure will result in dry and seasonable during the daytime hours today. VFR conditions expected through the daylight hours today ahead of an approaching cold front. Ridge will continue to slide off to the east throughout the day today leading to a somewhat persistence forecast through much of the daylight hours. This will bring along a cold front and associated precipitation. Overnight lows should be much warmer Monday night as low level winds keep drawing in warm southerly air and increasing clouds ahead of the front help keep radiative cooling limited.
Cooler and unsettled weather will be possible late in the week and on through the weekend.
Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather through the first half of Tuesday.
446 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cold front has sliced through the CWA, with post-frontal elevated convection behind it, as was expected. A warm layer above the surface could give us some mixed precip early this morning for roughly the northern half of the CWA this morning before the warm and elevated nose of warmer air aloft finally gets shunted south/southeast. Once again we will have a chance of light mixed precipitation of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain, but any amounts of frozen precipitation will be small, if it even occurs at all. Some light mixed precipitation will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning thanks to isentropic lift aloft and surface temperatures dropping below freezing.
305 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a large upper ridge centered over the Upper Midwest today, placing the tri-state region under southwest flow. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to traverse the forecast area from northwest to southeast this evening and overnight.
upper trough axis is approaching the CO/KS border early this morning with light rain and some light snow mainly along and north of the interstate. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 50s east of the CO/KS border with upper 50s to low 60s along and west of the border. As it approaches Norton and Graham counties toward sunrise Tuesday morning some freezing rain may mix in with the rain. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. we could see some light precipitation in Norton and Graham counties for a few hours in the morning otherwise it will be dry during the day with high temperatures in the low 60s to around 70.
556 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning today as high pressure shifts off the Carolina coasts. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cloud cover continues to lower and thicken this afternoon downstream of a low pressure system moving along the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri. Gusty/breezy southwest winds will veer west/northwesterly into Tuesday afternoon as the front passes through, before diminishing below 5 knots during the evening/overnight as weak surface ridging builds overhead.
Activity associated with a mid/upper trof advancing eastward across the plains and approaching the Mississippi valley, and accompanied by an attendant cold front. Will be maintaining a chance for showers into Tuesday as the upper trof continues to advance east, draping the aforementioned boundary along the Arkansas/Louisiana border where it will stall briefly, then retreat north as a warm front. Dry weather pattern then returns for mid-week as the area comes under modest ridging and available moisture plummets downward through much of the column. Continue to see a conflict in solutions for the latter part of the week between the GFS and ECMWF as the next trof advances across the plains.
Precipitation bands associated with the low are currently over Illinois and parts of western Indiana.
The aforementioned ample cloud cover plus persistent warm advection ahead of the sfc cold front will minimize overnight cooling from loss of sunlight and precipitation onset. Additional showers will develop along this boundary, aided by closer proximity to the trough axis. Depending on heating/recovery, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the aftn when the trough axis will approach region, with cooling temperature aloft potentially unlocking weak instability.
Winds had shifted to the northwest behind the low and cooler air has been funneling in from the north for most of the day.
212 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 A cold front has moved through the forecast area bringing a wind shift to northwest and a period of gusty winds but little in the way of cooler air. Upper level ridging will build overhead starting tomorrow and continue through much of the week. At the surface lee side troughing will result in west to southwest winds.
1137 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Water vapor shows large trof over the western/central CONUS. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas. Slightly cooler temps expected with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Western edge of light rain will move across northwest AR over the next few hrs with attention turning to advancing cold front currently through NW OK.
Tonight and Tuesday As of mid afternoon, a cold front was draped across northern Wisconsin while low pressure across Iowa was heading towards the western Great Lakes. For tonight, low pressure will move into lower Michigan this evening. As the rain ends later this evening, the rain could become mixed with or change to sleet, snow or freezing rain for a few hours. Later tonight, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing. The GFS model has a warm bias of late, thus took a blend of the cooler met guidance and the warmer MAV guidance.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a broad scale trough over the western half of Canada touching the international Border. In between these two extensions a weak ridge has formed over the Idaho/Wyoming border that's now pressing towards eastern Montana with a warm front. Today through Tonight: Warm front will pass through the area late this morning bringing enough lift to generate snow showers.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible overnight, along a cold frontal boundary moving through the state from the NW.
1243 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will shift offshore into the middle of this week.
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cold front has sliced through the CWA, with post-frontal elevated convection behind it, as was expected. A warm layer above the surface could give us some mixed precip early this morning for roughly the northern half of the CWA this morning before the warm and elevated nose of warmer air aloft finally gets shunted south/southeast. Once again we will have a chance of light mixed precipitation of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain, but any amounts of frozen precipitation will be small, if it even occurs at all. Some light mixed precipitation will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning thanks to isentropic lift aloft and surface temperatures dropping below freezing.
Initial showers will race ahead of the sfc front along a 700mb front through the morning, with additional showers firing along a weakening cold front during the aftn. Depending on heating/recovery, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the aftn when the trough axis will approach region, with cooling temperature aloft potentially unlocking weak instability.
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Temperatures are warming quickly this afternoon thanks to westerly downsloping winds and a weak 500 hpa ridge building over the region.
An upper level low is currently located near 30N 130W. This low will become largely cut off from the mean flow and will gradually shift eastward through the day.
Shower activity is gradually increasing west of the Mississippi River as the atmosphere continues to steadily moisten ahead of a cold front that now extends from north Missouri through central OK into central TX.