Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isolated updrafts spawned by the mesoscale low in southeastern Kit Carson county may briefly intensify progressing eastward into KS (low-level moisture increases to the east), however, the airmass also becomes cooler and increasingly capped to the east (particularly east of Goodland) -- suggesting that updrafts will have a very narrow spatio-temporal window in which to intensify prior to weakening.
Otherwise, mid/high clouds continue to gradually spread into much of the area from the WSW, as a weak upper trough axis drifts ewd over the wrn Gulf states.
121 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
1139 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 A warm front will not only lead the way for significantly higher temperatures the rest of the week.
This will bring a cold front across the region through the late morning and early afternoon hours and winds will switch to the northwest and increase through the day.
415 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A warm front will not only lead the way for significantly higher temperatures the rest of the week.
Upper low spinning over southern SK will push a trough into northwest SD this morning and then slow as it becomes parallel to the upper low this afternoon/evening.
1145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will gradually build east into New England through Thursday.
100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Key Message: Thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe, continue to look possible tomorrow afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front advancing through the area. The diffuse warm front will have lifted north through the area by the overnight hours but become stationary from north central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. But overall, the aforementioned boundary will move southward as a cold front and be situated mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
Furthermore, a stationary front lying across the distant Straits of Florida is expected to move little while medium range guidance has come into agreement with a low pressure system developing along this confluent boundary. GFS/UKMET keep the frontal boundary south in the Straits before the area of low pressure develops near the central Bahamas and then lifts it north northeastward. Conversely, the ECMWF allows the frontal boundary to lift just north of the Florida Keys with the low hugging the eastern portion of the Sunshine State before moving offshore late this weekend.
Deep layer ridge remains entrenched across the southeast US. Southeast winds will continue on the southwest side of the ridge axis and highs today reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
250 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late today, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
This is tied to isentropic ascent along the 850 mb warm front, while the surface warm front lags a bit behind currently analyzed from northern portions of middle TN into the central valley. Beyond that, low VFR cu is expected during peak heating with all sites remaining dry as any diurnally favored shra should remain confined to the high terrain. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 82 62 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 82 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 82 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 80 56 82 / 20 10 10 10 20.
Short wave trough bringing a few light showers to north central SD this afternoon with some development into northeast SD where Aberdeen just reported a light shower. Otherwise, the low clouds may be hard to move out the region tonight with the low level wind profile along with higher RH. Winds will become west to northwest on Thursday with drier air moving in bringing mostly sunny skies with warmer temperatures and highs mostly in the 60s. We will begin to see the affects of the next upper trough after midnight in the southwest CWA.
320 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warmer temperature is expected for the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chance. Today will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward across the Upr OH region.
250 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A warm front will move northeastward through North Carolina today, pushing well to our north tonight.
While it's possible an isolated storm or two could clip our far Northwest Alabama counties this afternoon, think that subsidence from an amplifying upper-level ridge to our southeast should win out for the most part and have kept PoPs below mentionable levels for this reason -- with the knowledge that a rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out. With southerly flow increasing on the western edge of this ridge, expect an even warmer day today with highs climbing into the lower 80s.
Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may develop along a cold front across northwest/north central Oklahoma and/or a dryline near the 100th meridian with daytime heating and surface convergence. North central Oklahoma may have the highest (relative) chance of convective initiation with storms potentially back-building to the southwest from Kansas and its closer proximity to large-scale ascent to erode the cap.
223 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warm front moves north of the area today. A warm front will push northward today providing some light showers. NBM is significantly warmer than MOS guidance for highs today.
This evening will be very pleasant as winds go light and high pressure starts to push in from the north.
This ridge will keep warm moist easterly flow across the state through the weekend.
With the increased coverage of storms expected today, high temperatures will likely top out in the lower 80s versus the mid 80s experienced yesterday. Overnight lows will sink into the low to mid 60s with partly cloudy skies.
123 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will prevail into late week while low pressure likely develops near the Bahamas and then shifts northeast staying well offshore this weekend.
These winds will funnel much warmer air into the region.
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warm front moves north of the area today. A warm front will push northward today providing some light showers. NBM is significantly warmer than MOS guidance for highs today. Diurnally driven showers and storms will come to an end Thursday night as the warm front tracks into the northeast US. POPs will then become confined north of the forecast area along a cold front that will take a few days to finally cross through Central Appalachia, draping across the Ohio Valley in the meantime.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below The trough slowly meanders across the area tonight and Thursday, which will prolong the chance for scattered showers.
Closed lows were located well off the coast of Washington state and another low was located over Newfoundland.
321 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Low pressure over southwest Kansas is progged to move slowly eastward across south central Kansas as we move through the day.
Look for temps mostly in the 60s today with a drier W-NW wind for much of the lower elevations.
1224 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warmer temperature is expected for the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chance. Dry weather should continue most of the night as high pressure moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected toward morning south of PIT as a warm front moves north across the Ohio Valley region. Lows should be warmer than last night, though still around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
429 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Current surface analysis places low over Saskatchewan with trough into the northern plains. Showers affiliated with this low continue to gradually scoot to the east over northwest into north central North Dakota. As for the rain showers, they will continue to scoot to the east as the aforementioned upper low continues on its way.
As the upper low moves across the Northern Plains there will be continued chances for rain showers, but the chances for more impactful weather will remain to the east over eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Current surface analysis places low over Saskatchewan with trough into the northern plains. Showers affiliated with this low continue to gradually scoot to the east over northwest into north central North Dakota. As for the rain showers, they will continue to scoot to the east as the aforementioned upper low continues on its way.
These winds will funnel much warmer air into the region. Ahead of the next cold front, low rain chances begin to work their way into southern Indiana by daybreak Friday morning.
The current forecast is on track for this afternoon with a small possibility of a shower or two forming over the higher terrain across Southwest Virginia and a small part of Northeast Tennessee. The low deck and fog was lifting across western sections of the Great Valley on our way to some beautiful mid May sunshine. Insolation should boost max temperatures in the lower 80s most of the forecast area with some upper 70s to around 80 across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Mostly mid/high clouds will dominate through morning, however low VFR cu is expected during peak heating with all sites remaining dry as any diurnally favored shra should remain confined to the high terrain.
Closed lows were located well off the coast of Washington state and another low was located over Newfoundland. Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado.
A weakening low pressure center will cross the northwest US and produce showers into northern Nevada today and Friday morning.
11Z surface analysis depicts warm front bisecting Ohio from northwest to southeast. Both scenarios confidence is not high, so will continue to monitor convective trends into the early afternoon and see how far north the warm front gets. What is the old saying in meteorology: "Never trust a warm front"? Hodographs suggest any storm with a motion to the east-southeast could rotate and thus produce a hail and tornado threat. The advancing Plains trough will shunt a weak cold front across the Upper Ohio valley Friday. Lack of cold advection with the front along with clouds and rain should keep the high very near the calculated-normal and also limit destabilization.
At the surface a warm front extends from southwest KS to near Salina to Manhattan, northeastward into northwest MO.
Things should quiet down later this evening (with the loss of daytime heating) and this respite could continue into to- morrow morning as weak ridging aloft sets up over the region. Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper low moves across the state. However, there's a new plot twist as current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E as a strong cold front sweeps down the Plains in its wake during the start of the week.
The shrtwv trof which brought severe wx to the area yesterday has since departed to the east. This in turn will promote warmer temperatures in the M/U 90s for most locations. Although there will be a lack of upper support today, a storm or two can't be ruled out across the far eastern CFWA and farther south over the higher terrain where an upslope flow regime is present. Meanwhile, a 700-500 hpa trof will begin to deepen over the Baja California and move into far West Texas early Friday. Ample lift assoc with the upper trof in conjunction with sfc temperatures in the L/M 90s should contribute to thunderstorm initiation along the dryline around 15 /20Z-21Z.
This evening will be very pleasant as winds go light and high pressure starts to push in from the north. It could end up a couple degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover, though.
436 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Another warm day is on tap for the Mid-South as high pressure sits to our east and weak ridging aloft.
After the low moves through the state today, we'll see high pressure build on Friday briefly. Temperatures will push towards near normal and into the lower 70's in most of the valleys with mid 60's near the coast and east of the Cascades.
1009 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warm front moves north of the area today. A warm front will push northward today providing some light showers. NBM is significantly warmer than MOS guidance for highs today.
An upper level low will move inland late today, bringing another round of showers to the region. A weak upper level ridge will then briefly move over the area on Friday, providing the area with a quick break in precipitation in between systems.
This may be in response to enhanced low- level convergence associated with a weak 700 hpa jet juxtaposed w/ an elevated warm front along the CO/WY border. Extensive cloud cover today will keep most areas a bit cooler, so overall expect any threat for strong/severe storms to be extremely limited w/ CAPE under 500 J/kg. Larger scale forcing associated with the aforementioned wave will arrive by afternoon, contributing to lee cyclogenesis as well as enhanced low-level convergence across the high plains. The pre-frontal trough may serve as a focus for convective development by late afternoon/early evening prior to the main fropa (generally just a wind shift) later that night.
As temperatures approach the low to mid 90s late this afternoon, the cap will weaken, possibly allowing a few storms to develop in our far western counties.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A fast moving 500 mb short wave trough and the associated /MCS/ mesoscale convective system is currently moving over south Texas. The latest 07Z HRRR continues to have a good handle this feature and indicates that this convection should continue to move east across the northern Ranchlands through the pre-dawn hours and move off the lower Texas coast around 13Z. A mid-level short wave ridge builds overhead today into tonight and is expected to bring some brief subsidence across deep south Texas.
548 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warm front moves north of the area today. A warm front will push northward today providing some light showers. NBM is significantly warmer than MOS guidance for highs today.
/issued 436 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ Another warm day is on tap for the Mid-South as high pressure sits to our east and weak ridging aloft.
This ridge will keep warm moist easterly flow across the state through the weekend. 01 A low pressure system in the gulf is entering an area where a combination of warm water and weak upper level winds should provide it with everything it needs to become a subtropical depression or storm by this weekend. A storm system moving through the lower great lakes will sweep a cold front through the southeast. Models are indicating that the precip should be pretty limited by a significant amount of dry cooler air at the mid levels wrapped up on the back side of this low.
Highs this afternoon will reach the low 80s at the coast, climbing to the mid 80s over the interior.
Current surface analysis places low over Saskatchewan with trough into the northern plains. Showers affiliated with this low continue to gradually scoot to the east over northwest into north central North Dakota. As for the rain showers, they will continue to scoot to the east as the aforementioned upper low continues on its way.
Peeks of the sun, combined with westerly winds ahead of an advancing cold front, have given confidence to lean toward the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures today. Skies clear this evening, and then weak surface ridging looks to yield a dry day on Friday with near-normal temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
310 AM PDT Thu May 14 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures continue today.
High pressure building into the region will bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions for today. Much of NE Montana will await the next low pressure system, set to arrive on Friday, with the next chance for showers. A deepening upper level ridge over the western U. will amplify into the northern High Plains and adjacent Canada over the weekend as an upper level low approaches the Pacific shore.
The trough axis appears to clip northern portions of the forecast area, so that along with daytime heating should result in redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly north of I-70. Residual moisture should support the development of showers and storms again tomorrow afternoon mainly in the higher terrain along and north of I-70 as well as along the Divide. The remaining energy from the Pacific Northwest low pressure brushes by the area tomorrow night, but looks to have minimal influence in our area.
An upper level disturbance moving overhead with an associated large area of convection has pushed most of the low MVFR cloud decks south of the Rio Grande Valley this morning. /issued 440 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A fast moving 500 mb short wave trough and the associated /MCS/ mesoscale convective system is currently moving over south Texas. The latest 07Z HRRR continues to have a good handle this feature and indicates that this convection should continue to move east across the northern Ranchlands through the pre-dawn hours and move off the lower Texas coast around 13Z. A mid-level short wave ridge builds overhead today into tonight and is expected to bring some brief subsidence across deep south Texas.
additional thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along/near a cold front currently positioned from Central Kansas to Southern Iowa. Thunderstorm chances through the day Friday will remain possible across the CWA as the main cold front holds off to the northwest of the CWA.
1224 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 An approaching warm front over the Ohio Valley will advance northward through Pennsylvania late today and early Friday.
(This evening through Friday) Surface winds across western Oklahoma are south/southwest ahead of a cold front in the Panhandles.
307 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A ridge of high pressure will crest across the area this evening before sliding offshore. low pressure will track across southern New Hampshire and the southern tip of Maine spawning widespread showers and thunderstorms. Along and south of the low track will be the area most likely to see thunderstorms containing hail.
Short range models are portraying a more conducive environment for strong to severe convection Friday afternoon and early evening over much of the high plains.
The very wrapped up upper low continues to spin over the northern Red River Valley into southern Canada. The upper low continues to spin into our northeastern counties this evening, but much of the punch will be lost after sunset so it will mainly be lingering showers. Some clearing skies as the upper low exits, with weak northwesterly winds behind the system. This will bring lows a bit cooler than last night in the upper 30s to low 40s. A few of the high-res models break out some fog again overnight across our northeast, but with northwest winds and uncertainty about clearing timing will leave any mention out for now. Without the upper low overhead most locations should get into the 60s during the afternoon.
The strengthening 850 mb thermal ridge is creating warmer conditions today, with 2 pm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s overnight, in addition to the low clouds, expect warm lows tonight in the 68-72 range. Day-time heating (assuming clouds clear out early enough) and the high dewpoints will result in ML CAPEs exceeding 4000 J/KG.
High pressure building in from the west today will move eastward Friday causing winds to become southerly.
More showers and possible thunderstorms as the upper low kicks into the Intermountain NW today. Water vapor satellite pics showing the low moving through central Oregon this morning with a upper jet on the back side (pushing onto the SE Oregon coast).
Friday will see a pleasant day with high pressure building across the region. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s during the day.
349 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will prevail tonight.
159 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Weak upper ridge over the region will give way to an approaching trough that reaches the Rockies Friday.
A weak trough extending from a low center over the PACNW will move over the region later this afternoon, helping to initiate a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This trough will start over southwestern portions of the state, firing off showers by mid to late afternoon. Most of this activity is expected to over the High Plains and southern MT by sunrise Friday morning. The remnants of the PACNW upper low will move over the region Friday.
427 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 As a warm front lifts into our area tonight some light rain showers will move into the area.
134 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Warm front moves north of the area today. A warm front will push northward today providing some light showers. NBM is significantly warmer than MOS guidance for highs today.
All this rain and clouds are keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.
252 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Mid level ridging across the area shifts east tonight as troughiness slides in from the west. A wave of low pressure tracks along the stalled front in the Florida Straits and deepens as it approaches the Bahamas later Fri. The highest odds of rain are expected in the far south and central interior. High pressure ridging north of the waters will support robust winds in the caution range. The gradient begins to relax late Fri or early Sat allowing winds to diminish as low pressure tracks out of the FL Straits and across the Bahamas during the weekend.
This should pass a cold front through after midnight and usher in a good cold advection surge overnight.
Based on this imagery and radar the first few cells are starting to form along the cold front. With continued afternoon heating and the cold air aloft with the low, rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase along the front as it propagates east into northeast Minnesota late this afternoon and evening, and across western Lake Superior and northwest Wisconsin this evening and tonight.
Instability showers continue to develop over central and western areas, strongest along the higher terrain, this afternoon but this activity is weak and not very organized.
919 AM PDT Thu May 14 2020 A warming trend that will bring temperatures to or slightly above seasonal normals will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds over the West Coast.
However, with low level ridge axis over eastern SD, soundings remain rather dry below 800mb, so may be tough to get much more than sprinkles into areas east of the James River Valley before sunset. Thus expect our coolest highs in the mid 60s in our far west, while southeast areas which should see more sunshine climb into the lower 70s.
Northerly flow on the back side of Alex will pull slightly cooler and drier air into Georgia and east Alabama this afternoon.
The boundary over northern Minnesota begins to drop south as a weak cold front this evening, while the southern one over Iowa noses north towards the MN/IA border as a warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday morning before the low moves off to the east with the rest of Monday staying dry.
High pressure then builds into the region this week with a drying and warming trend. Today and Tonight: A deep low pressure system will locate across the northeast Pacific with a 140 knot upper jet along the base of a broad upper trough. Lows tonight will range from around 50 in the North Bay to the lower and mid 50s elsewhere.
Maximum temperatures will be near the climatological standard, though perhaps a degree or two warmer in some locations as maxes in the upper 80s/lower 90s can be expected for the coasts/interior.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coast with partly cloudy skies here and there. Mid/upper level ridging that will be building into the state from the west at the start of the week will help to keep rain chances out of the forecast beyond Monday night.