Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The current rather moist atmospheric column is progged to actually dry out a bit in the lower levels toward Sunday as a brief period of ridging takes place ahead of a large, dynamic low pressure system approaching from the central Plains. In the higher elevations of the MO Ozark Foothills, some lightning is even possible this evening, if parcels can reach the freezing level just under a inversion above 700 mb. The bigger story is the large swath of rain coming for the PAH forecast area during the day Sunday, ahead of the low pressure system as it ejects toward the Great Lakes. Additional lift ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon might enable isold lightning to occur west of the MS River as the more persistent rain moves into the area.
WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ENSURE EVERYONE IS IN THE LOW 70S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
In addition, strong large scale forcing is expected to develop this afternoon and this evening along and behind a cold front as the upper system approaches. Cooler temperatures are expected today due to the passage of the cold front, but will still remain well above normal.
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. LOOKING AT THE ANALYSIS OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWEST 2KM. THE LOWEST 2KM IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
658 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
If it were not for the cloud cover, temperatures would be even warmer. The warm front with this system has already pushed north of the forecast area into northern Illinois.
656 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
554 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF MEXICO. STRONG WINDS IN THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE HIGHER RISK.
A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. AND THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS PLAINS REGION. THE NAM IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD EVEN COOL DURING THE MORNING AS SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. SWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
733 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN THRU 15Z.
700 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
510 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 The warm front was splitting the forecast area, and right through the KC Metro. This will result in a large range of temperatures across the forecast area, with far northwestern Missouri hovering in the lower 50s, and parts of west central to central Missouri warming to near 70 degrees. Little variation in the temperature is expected Saturday night as the warm front will remain draped over northwestern Missouri and strong warm and moist advection persists.
330 AM MST SAT DEC 12 2015 A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. GENERATING COOLER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
1033 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
Potent upper level trough will dig south into the Panhandle tonight, with a Pacific front moving into the western sections of the area by early this evening.
A SECOND WAVE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS DESCHUTES COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH A LOW DIGGING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 53 71 57 / 10 10 10 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 49 71 56 / 10 10 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 51 71 56 / 10 10 10 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 44 72 55 / 10 10 10 30.
1045 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. 02 INCHES IS THE LOWEST MEASURED SINCE NOVEMBER 28. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE WILL LIKELY FALL, AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70'S MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER INCREASE.
250 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH WARMER AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.
604 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.
934 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
856 AM MST SAT DEC 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
653 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
407 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 The current rather moist atmospheric column is progged to actually dry out a bit in the lower levels toward Sunday as a brief period of ridging takes place ahead of a large, dynamic low pressure system approaching from the central Plains. In the higher elevations of the MO Ozark Foothills, some lightning is even possible this evening, if parcels can reach the freezing level just under a inversion above 700 mb. The bigger story is the large swath of rain coming for the PAH forecast area during the day Sunday, ahead of the low pressure system as it ejects toward the Great Lakes. Additional lift ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon might enable isold lightning to occur west of the MS River as the more persistent rain moves into the area.
426 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
629 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SPLITTING TROF IS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY. DIFFLUENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. AS TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH FORCING WEAK THROUGH THE DAY PER ISENTROPIC FORECASTS AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE LOWEST 3K FT SATURATED BUT DRY ABOVE THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON. FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH AND DECENT SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF MAIN LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEN EARLY LOWS TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
ANALYSIS OF MAIN FEATURES FOR THE PREDAWN OF SATURDAY INDICATED UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH WAS AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW. AS A NEW UPPER LOW FORMED WEST OF THE 4-CORNERS. THE ON-GOING STREAK OF MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED OVER THIS REGION.
/ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ Warm front was located across NW Osage Co early this morning with warm and moist airmass now covering majority of the forecast area. Brief period of dense fog remain possible near and north of the warm front as it slowly lifts north, otherwise eventually expect some light rain or drizzle to break out across mainly eastern OK as lift begins to increase. Chance of showers and thunderstorms then increases more substantially later this afternoon and evening with approaching upper low. Strong deep layer shear does support storm organization however, with line of storms possible ahead of approaching cold front late tonight.
947 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EFFECTS OF MIXING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE BY MIDDAY. MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING NE TX/SE OK OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX. DESPITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WRAPPING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW.
THEN FALLING BACK TO VALLEY FLOORS AFTER SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WEAK SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH SE OREGON THIS MORNING AND SW IDAHO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
1001 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AS NOTED BY SPC THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SEVERITY. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE I-45 CORRIDOR FOR HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER RES DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL TRAINING EXTENDING SW INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT IS STILL LIKELY TO DUMP ISOLATED DOWNPOURS OF AROUND 2 INCHES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES A BROAD AREAS OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE CORE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWEST PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 00Z NAM IS LIFTING THE LOW BY 12Z. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS GO AROUND ARE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN THE UPPER LOW ITSELF. SURFACE AND 850 TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 06Z. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A RAIN/SNOW MIX BECOMES POSSIBLE BUT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 11 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE AND PRODUCE A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WILL REACH 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS REACH THE LOWER-MID 80S.
STRONG CLOSED LOW EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BUT DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THAT POPS WILL BE NIL TO MINIMAL AT BEST. DEESE INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS MARKED WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE TRI-CITIES AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD/TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL FALL IN THIS WARMER AIR AND THUS EXPECT RAIN. BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WE ARE NOT ABLE TO SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE MAKING THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST A BIT MORE TRICKY. THROUGH OBSERVATIONS WE CAN SEE THE LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CEILINGS.
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF APPROACHES.
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. GENERATING COOLER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
WEAK SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH SE OREGON THIS MORNING AND SW IDAHO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
Inherited Advisory for Blowing Snow thru press time, will let expire as winds begin to relax about that time on high pressure nosing in. The high strengthens its grip/hold on our weather tonight as it ridges across the TN valley, and starts a moderating trend Sunday.
HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS ARE GENERATING LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION, MAYBE JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN OREGON HEADS TOWARD MONTANA, CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 21-22Z AT KBZN/KHLN. WITH NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING, PRECIP AT KHLN/KGTF/KCTB MAY START AS -RA OR -RASN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL -SN AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 03-10Z.
Otherwise, expect it will be a couple degrees warmer today with some sunshine.
1037 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TODAY AND WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
1202 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BIG STORM MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO MID- ATLANTIC STATES WITH SNOW BEING MEASURED IN FEET AS OPPOSED TO INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
324 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK TODAY FINALLY DISSIPATED AROUND MIDDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS.
221 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AND THE TROUGH NEARS. SLIPPERY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO WET ROADS FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES FALL.
251 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
temps have been slow to warm with many locations still remaining in the lower to middle 20s. Latest trends suggest low cloud cover will finally begin to dissipate late tomorrow morning/afternoon as subsidence increases over the region with arriving upper ridge axis. conditions will remain dry through the evening hrs with high temps topping out in the lower to middle 40s across most locations.
We've already seen some deeper convection this morning west and north of Redding associated with the upper trough. Most of the precipitation came in the form of a NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rain band), which brought heavy rain rates but only for a few moments. Looking upstream, convective showers in association with the upper low have begun to move inland along the Northern Coast.
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 QUIET WEATHER EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. MILD WEATHER STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH NEARLY NORMAL TEMPS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
239 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A COOLER POST FRONTAL SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
PERHAPS PUNCTUATED BY PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN/NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.
BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS. WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH. THEN WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS. GENERALLY WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. BUT THEN GO WARMER OR ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOES PROVIDE SOME ENERGY. BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR RAINFALL (EVEN ISENTROPIC FORECASTS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE DEFICITS).
WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE SNOWPACK AREAS. THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL CASE THOUGH WITH A MATURE CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE DRY SLOT ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. /ISSUED 306 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016/ THE DEEP FULLY MATURE CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID SOUTH THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS AREAS WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
DRY NWLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS A DEEP UPR LOW SPINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE ROCKIES PER RECENT WV AND UA ANALYSIS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP AS THE CNTR OF THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. WE COULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN GREGORY. EXPECT THE DAY TO BE PRETTY CLOUDY THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING.
Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight. Freezing fog is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance, but if anything that's too warm given the snow cover.
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S STILL LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TX AND OK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FACILITATE ADDITIONAL WARMING ON SUNDAY.
THE SHIFT IN WINDS COMES LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA. SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WAS RELEGATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/POOLING THAT HAD OCCURRED WITHIN THE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OPEN LAKE OF THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. IS FORECASTED TO CREST A LONGWAVE RIDGE AND PASS DIRECTLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE STRUCTURE IS FORECASTED WHICH WILL PRESERVE A FAVORABLE THETA E STRUCTURE AND WARM ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE EVENT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WAA PUSH ALONG WITH SOME SOLID CVA NOW FORECASTED FOR THE NORTHERN CWA FEEL IT IS WARRANTED TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. FEEL THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW. AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN WITH SFC AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFF OUR COAST THIS MORNING, AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IN THE EAST SIDE ADVISORY AREA AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
Tonight high pressure will be over TN Valley, and that should mean relatively light winds for us. This south wind should help places along and north of the Ohio River to get into the mid 30s, but the snowpack area likely will struggle to get above freezing.
1132 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DUMP SNOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. CLD FREE SKIES IN ASSOCN/W FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MID-HIGH LVL SUBSIDENCE ALG NWRN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LYRD CYCLONE ACRS THE MID ATL COAST WILL WKN W/TIME AS CYCLONE PIVOTS OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATL. UPSTREAM VEERING LL FLW AND MODEST BLOSSOM IN LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ACCENTUATE GROSS MASS MSTR FLUX OF LKS MI AND HN W/GENERAL SWD EXPANSION/DVLPMNT OF STRATOCU CIGS LTR THIS MORNING OF WHICH WILL CAP POTENTIAL DIURNAL TEMP RISES THIS AFTN. SUNDAY STILL LOOKING QUIET WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
336 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH OVERCAST AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE NAM MODEL HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING TO NEAR A VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING UPPER LOW OFF OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
THEN FOCUS E OF KBIL BY MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT COULD ALLOW SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. USHERING IN SOME COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIR. MON WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL FOCUSED AND IS WEAKER. AHEAD OF THE SNOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.