Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front quickly worked its way across northeastern Kansas today. Conditions this afternoon sharply contrast those of yesterday afternoon behind the front with much cooler and drier air advecting into the region. Northerly winds have gusted as high as 54 mph in north-central KS and gusts between 40 and 55 mph will remain likely area-wide with the higher gusts primarily across the western half of the CWA. In case you hadn't noticed already, temperatures are much cooler this afternoon than they were this morning, mainly in the 30's across the area.
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front, which will sweep across Illinois tonight. This will mark the start of much cooler conditions, which will persist most of the week, and resulting in below freezing temperatures each night beginning Monday night. Longer range focus will be on the much cooler conditions, with nightly temperatures at or below freezing.
Strong 50 knot south to southwest winds with low level jet just off the surface will contribute to damaging wind gusts even outside storms with the highest winds in strongest storms and a possible tornado over the next few hours. The deepening low pressure area moving northeast into the Ohio Valley overnight and Monday morning will contribute to a large pressure gradient and continue the strong winds through early afternoon over the northeast part of the CWA.
623 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The surface cold front continues to make steady progress through the forecast area, currently approaching a line from Clinton to Kirksville. Multiple nights ahead may once again see temperatures dipping to/below freezing, and additional freeze advisories may be needed.
Strong upper ridge offshore on Monday with a dry north flow. A system moving over the ridge through southern BC will bring increasing mid and high level clouds on Tue.
901 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front, which will sweep across Illinois tonight. This will mark the start of much cooler conditions, which will persist most of the week, and resulting in below freezing temperatures each night beginning Monday night. A cold front has reached roughly the Illinois River this evening, with a fine line of isolated heavy showers and a trailing region of widespread rain trailing behind. Longer range focus will be on the much cooler conditions, with nightly temperatures at or below freezing.
/Issued 214 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ Convection continues to expand this afternoon ahead of strong cold front which has pushed into NE OK early this afternoon. Conditions remain supportive of severe weather potential this afternoon through early evening ahead of the surging cold front. The highest conditional environment remains across SE OK and possibly into west central AR before the front passes.
Gusty south winds will continue this evening, but a cold front will move through overnight and this will swing the winds around to the northwest with gusts to 30 mph. The severe threat will continue into this evening mainly for the eastern portions of the area, until the cold front moves east later this evening. Strong high pressure ridging will build in overnight with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the north, to mid/upper 50s across the Pine Belt Region. /15/ Behind the influence of today's storm system, the region transitions to a relatively cooler and drier weather pattern. The CONUS becomes dominated by a broad trough, with weakly southwesterly flow in place over much of the south. Cooler temperatures moving in as north/northeasterly winds filter in on the east side of high pressure building in over the central US.
The cold front has moved s of INK and MAF and was near CNM.
Upper trough over southern Oklahoma, per water vapor loops.
Late Sun night, winds will shift towards the W/NW as a strong cold front enters the state from the NW, and will bring sustained winds of 15-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts through Mon afternoon.
Drier conditions expected for Monday, with slightly warmer temperatures.
Cold front has moved through central Texas into the northern portion of the Hill Country. Front is still on schedule to move into the area overnight with cooler temperatures for Monday morning. A cold front will move into the region overnight with winds shifting to north and become gusty before daybreak. Will look into possible re-issuance later this evening for winds increasing behind the cold front before daybreak to SCA levels for Monday.
Strong 50 knot south to southwest winds with low level jet just off the surface will contribute to damaging wind gusts even outside storms with the highest winds in strongest storms and a possible tornado over the next few hours. The deepening low pressure area moving northeast into the Ohio Valley overnight and Monday morning will contribute to a large pressure gradient and continue the strong winds through early afternoon over the northeast part of the CWA. Strong winds from the south to southwest will switch to the west and northwest as a cold front moves through later tonight.
348 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 In the wake of yesterday's winter storm system, breezy northwest winds will continue to usher in chilly Canadian air as a Canadian high pressure slides southward down the Plains.
/issued 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ /00Z TAFS/ Wind shifts expected over the next few hours as a cold front pushes southward. /issued 213 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Another cold front is this afternoon just north of West Central Texas. For Monday, highs will be much cooler, or perhaps much colder would be a more meaningful way to characterize it, than usual mid April highs.
Another cold front will approach South Texas in the next 6 hrs, reaching COT-VCT roughly around 7-8Z, then pushing through LRD-ALI-CRP through 12Z. As high pressure settles in, winds will become light and gradually turn out of the NE after 18Z and through the end of the TAF period.
The clouds will gradually scatter out today as high pressure starts building into Middle Tennessee from the west.
335 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Surface winds will continue to diminish this morning across the Ozarks as a strong mid-latitude cyclone departs toward the Great Lakes region. With modified Canadian high pressure building into the Central Plains, we should see a period of full sunshine into this afternoon.
321 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large thunderstorm complex sweeping through the southeastern US, dragging a cold front through the Florida Panhandle and Gulf of Mexico.
Tonight will see a broad long wave trof carve itself across the CONUS midsection. The cooler air spills down in earnest Tuesday and into Tuesday night, when the column also begins to dry. This sets the stage for good radiational cooling with clearing/diminishing winds and with surface forecast lows in the lower 30s, for freezing temps/frost.
High pressure will move in tonight with dry weather that will continue into Tuesday morning.
333 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Prefrontal trough with all inclement weather has moved east and the cold front is now moving through the area denoted by a thin line of clouds and temps dropping from the mid 70s to the mid 60s.
A few weak waves in the flow, combined with some weak instability should produce widely scattered snow showers by this afternoon, with the best chance being over the higher terrain.
A cold front pushing south into the region will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday. Some light snowfall is also possible over the higher elevations Monday morning. Dry and warmer conditions return by mid week.
By late tonight, a more substantial trough will enhance vorticity fields somewhat. While surface temps remain mostly above freezing as of 08Z, wet bulbing could support a few snow flurries. Other areas south and east should remain closer to the freezing mark. The weak upslope flow component may result in enough isentropic upglide to produce light snow/rain mix until the late morning when the wet-bulb temperature rises above freezing, resulting in a transition to plain rain.
A strong cold front quickly worked its way across northeastern Kansas today. Conditions this afternoon sharply contrast those of yesterday afternoon behind the front with much cooler and drier air advecting into the region. Northerly winds have gusted as high as 54 mph in north-central KS and gusts between 40 and 55 mph will remain likely area-wide with the higher gusts primarily across the western half of the CWA. In case you hadn't noticed already, temperatures are much cooler this afternoon than they were this morning, mainly in the 30's across the area. The upper pattern does not budge much mid week from a broad troughing pattern, however, a weak mid level disturbance could generate some rain/snow showers south of the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be slow to recover mid week with an expansive trough aloft and high pressure at the surface.
1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Compact short wave trough in eastern mt this evening will be making its way southeast and across northern sd later tonight through Monday morning. The upper trough will continue to dig in over the next 24 hours. This is still a good 20 degrees cooler than climo norms for mid April.
A Canadian cold front that moved through overnight will keep winds gusty through the late morning with the pressure gradient relaxing in the afternoon. This is due to a secondary surge of surface ridging brought about by a sharpening northerly flow pattern aloft.
345 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in the wake of yesterday's upper trough that wreaked havoc across the southeastern CONUS. Mesoanalysis has the cold front that moved in behind the trough banked up against the higher terrain, w/a temp of 33F at KTAT. Borden and Scurry look to stay above freezing, but we'll leave them in the warning, as they were in the previous one, and it'll be a close call. Forecast soundings over the higher elevations of the Guadalupes mix to around 625mb or better this afternoon, and elevations abv 7Kft could see marginal high winds into the early evening. Temps will rebound to near-normal Thu afternoon, but, unfortunately, another cold front is on tap Thu night, setting back temps Fri afternoon.
Have also tapered back pops considerably this evening as much drier air continues to advect ESE in wake of the departing upper trough, as well as behind the attendant cold front which has shifted SE into Cntrl and Ern LA as of 03Z.
1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front, which will sweep across Illinois tonight. This will mark the start of much cooler conditions, which will persist most of the week, and resulting in below freezing temperatures each night beginning Monday night. A cold front has reached roughly the Illinois River this evening, with a fine line of isolated heavy showers and a trailing region of widespread rain trailing behind. Longer range focus will be on the much cooler conditions, with nightly temperatures at or below freezing.
311 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Current radar imagery shows a line of showers and storms draped across much of central Kentucky ahead of an advancing cold front. Given that gusty winds and clouds will be in place for a good portion of the day, expect afternoon highs to feel a bit cool, as they only rise into the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows will also be noticeably cooler, as temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Broad trough rotating around Hudson Bay will keep our weather cool this week, with some subtle impulses moving across the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front continues to advance toward the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, expect gusty winds to lessen and ceilings to return to VFR levels at all TAF sites this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes and the cold front departs the region.
/issued 750 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ An area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move rapidly northeast across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes tonight and Monday with an ongoing severe weather outbreak across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and southeast U. Associated trailing cold front will push across the Florida panhandle tonight and will stall across north Florida on Monday as the front becomes parallel to the U/L flow.
The low at Glasgow itself was already near to busting, and larger holes in the clouds will develop overnight before they close back up tomorrow mid-morning. The minimum will really depend on how much of the surface moisture mixes out into the lower atmosphere and lowers dewpoints before the atmosphere settles down into a more laminar flow pattern from the previous convection. All that uncertainty complicates exactly how far to drop the lows.
335 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The strong pressure gradient that produced the gusty winds is subsiding as high pressure increases from the west today.
Surface ridging will settle into the area and below normal temperatures are expected through the period.
High Winds remain possible across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, particularly the higher elevations, where a High Wind Warning remains in effect tonight. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track this evening, with the much advertised cold front nearing the Pecos River Valley, and continued slow southward and westward progression expected overnight.
Plentiful sunshine should allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s across the northern half of the area to the low to mid 60s across the southern half of the area.
But with the strong cold front moving in by early afternoon temperatures will begin to fall later in the day.
The colder air mass, currently "hung up" on higher terrain along our northern borders, will start to filter its was south Monday afternoon and evening, so expect slightly cooler temps tomorrow. As mentioned in previous discussions, widespread freezing temperatures are expected tonight and again Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and strong cold air advection are in place for the remainder of the short term period which result in widespread freezing temperatures tonight and tomorrow night. Lows Monday night will take a deeper dive below freezing, due to the secondary surge of cold air spreading across the CWA during the Monday afternoon/evening time frame. By mid- week, the Canadian closed low will propagate over the Northeast Atlantic coast and the broad trough which has encompassed the entire CONUS will shift eastward.
1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The surface cold front continues to make steady progress through the forecast area, currently approaching a line from Clinton to Kirksville. Multiple nights ahead may once again see temperatures dipping to/below freezing, and additional freeze advisories may be needed.
Dry air is quickly moving into the lower levels, which should keep additional accumulation potential to a minimum. Used cooler guidance for min temps and took off an extra degree or so. Forecast ranges from single digits near Pine Ridge to mid teens far south and north central, which represents near record values. Mid-level fgen increases as a weak wave rounds the main trough, while soundings suggest a rather deep mixed layer and steep lapse rates. Temperature-wise, again sided with cooler end of guidance with highs generally in the 30s and lows in the teens. The main upper trough over the Eastern U.
324 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Crossing low pressure will generate showers and windy conditions today. No further changes were made for the morning update as counties north of Pittsburgh were added to the High Wind Warning overnight given the latest trends of pressure rise (~10mb/3hr) and especially the magnitude of the low level jet stream which any convective element may mix to the surface through this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will thus redevelop this morning as the low develops northward with convection/mixing adding to a gradient, and cross-gradient wind threat as per isallobaric acceleration with the advance of the systems cold front. The secondary threat is potential for severe weather with the aforementioned convection ahead of the front given extremely high deep layer shear (primarily linear) on the flank of the low crossing Ohio.
However, a cold front will swing through the area later tonight and result in gusty winds to 30kts out of the northwest. The severe threat will continue into this evening mainly for the eastern portions of the area, until the cold front moves east later this evening. Strong high pressure ridging will build in overnight with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the north, to mid/upper 50s across the Pine Belt Region. /15/ Behind the influence of today's storm system, the region transitions to a relatively cooler and drier weather pattern. The CONUS becomes dominated by a broad trough, with weakly southwesterly flow in place over much of the south. Cooler temperatures moving in as north/northeasterly winds filter in on the east side of high pressure building in over the central US.
Tuesday through Monday An upper trough will track south and east across the central Rockies and Four Corners region and then across the Panhandles by Tuesday afternoon. Decreasing cloudiness expected by Tuesday evening as drier air and subsidence prevail behind the upper trough.
140 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring unseasonably cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region the next few days. The best chance for snow showers will be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills with isolated activity across other locations. Slightly warmer temps expected.
There are still some cells to our west that have developed along the cold front that will come through overnight, so we'll keep a brief window open for these storms in the forthcoming TAF set.
214 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 A pre-frontal trough is producing a fast moving but decaying line of low-topped showers. A defined dry slot has cleared the sky temporarily behind the pre-frontal trof. The surface cold front at 06Z extended from NW TN through Memphis into southern AR and will pass through later this morning.
A dome of high pressure will slide east of the area today shifting northerly winds to the southeast by this evening.
Late Sun night, winds will shift towards the W/NW as a strong cold front enters the state from the NW, and will bring sustained winds of 15-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts through Mon afternoon. Data from local radars indicate convection developing ahead of a strong upper trough, and associated cold front, across portions of central and eastern Oklahoma. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the rest of this period.
W-NW winds 15-25 kts with higher gusts will lighten throughout the day with a shift to N-NE later in the period as sfc ridging settles into the region. Surface ridging will settle into the area and below normal temperatures are expected through the period.
Snow accumulations thus far look to have been less than an inch overnight in Laramie County and the high plains, but it has caused slick roads in several areas and reduced visibility to extend the SPS through at least 12Z today. Occasional snow showers the remainder of the morning in the high plains may result in an additional half to one inch of snowfall. If enough clouds break in the western Nebraska Panhandle by late afternoon, the North Platte River valley may crest the freezing mark briefly.
The pressure gradient has tightened up behind the pre-frontal trough within the dry slot. A pre-frontal trough is producing a fast moving but decaying line of low-topped showers. A defined dry slot has cleared the sky temporarily behind the pre-frontal trof. The surface cold front at 06Z extended from NW TN through Memphis into southern AR and will pass through later this morning.
Cooler with a chance of mountain showers by the weekend. Another vort dropping down from the north may spark a few showers over the Sierra Nevada south of Tahoe late today, otherwise generally dry and mild weather is expected over NorCal this week as the amplified pattern remains in place with strong ridging over the eastern Pacific and a trough to our east over much of CONUS.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 30s both days. The powerful cyclone that brought snow across the Upper Midwest and severe weather across the Southeast will strengthen as it lifts into Canada. Northwest flow will remain in place through the end of the week, which means drier and cooler conditions.
(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 We will continue to be in the grips of a mean upper trough dominating the central and eastern part of the United States with a couple of spokes of energy rotating through by tonight and another tomorrow. We could see some gusts over 30 mph, and wind chills for most of the CWA should remain near or below freezing.
1005 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Crossing low pressure will generate showers and a few thunderstorms, as well as windy conditions today. As of mid this morning, recent AMDAR soundings out of PIT still suggest a shallow sfc inversion evident as the bulk of the precipitation treks across the forecast area in association with a crossing cold front. The exception would be across the eastern ridges, where the ability to access stronger wind aloft above the sfc inversion exists, as well as across southern portions of the forecast area where pockets of clearing cloud may help steepen low- level lapse rates. The primary threat continues to be that non-thunderstorm wind, which will increase in the wake of the cold front and continue through this afternoon.
1017 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 A cold front will move through today.
651 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Current radar imagery shows a line of showers and storms draped across much of central Kentucky ahead of an advancing cold front. Given that gusty winds and clouds will be in place for a good portion of the day, expect afternoon highs to feel a bit cool, as they only rise into the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows will also be noticeably cooler, as temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Broad trough rotating around Hudson Bay will keep our weather cool this week, with some subtle impulses moving across the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front continues to push across the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, expect gusty winds to lessen and ceilings to return to VFR levels at all TAF sites this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes and the cold front departs the region.
646 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Surface winds will continue to diminish this morning across the Ozarks as a strong mid-latitude cyclone departs toward the Great Lakes region. With modified Canadian high pressure building into the Central Plains, we should see a period of full sunshine into this afternoon.
Warmer temperatures will occur later this week. QPF totals on the light side with a few inches of snow possible at the higher elevations of the White mountains.
Widespread showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms can be expected today as a cold front slowly pushes south through the region.
A very tight pressure gradient associated with these lows and rain on the back side of the upper level trough have helped to bring strong winds aloft down to the surface. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower to middle 40s over Northeast Arkansas to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees across Northeast Mississippi.
/issued 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020/ Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large thunderstorm complex sweeping through the southeastern US, dragging a cold front through the Florida Panhandle and Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather through this week with an upper level ridge offshore and northerly flow.
Cold air advection strato-cu behind a cold front is moving down into the forecast area.