Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
507 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Tonight through Friday: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to build east through the region through Friday, with quiet conditions forecast to persist across the CWA. Slightly warmer conditions will exist Friday afternoon, as highs areawide climb into the 50s. This increased southwesterly flow aloft, will also prompt an increase in clouds over the region, as a mid/upper level low pressure system drops southeast into the southern plains states. Per the WPC model diagnostic discussion, agree that a slightly slower evolution of this system is more plausible per model biases, especially considering how the ridge folds over and builds north of the system almost forming a rex block. The forecasted pattern is unusual and the overall rarity is reflected by the low SLU CIPS analog correlations.
The warm front will then move nwd with sly winds and high temps in the lower 40s for Fri afternoon.
855 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 With high pressure at the surface anchored just NE of our area over SE KY/NE TN, clear skies and calm winds have allowed current temps to drop to/slightly below freezing across much of the area. Rinse and repeat for Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the lower 50s. Biggest difference from Thursday will be increased cloud cover and moisture from southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough to our west. This will result in a slightly warmer evening with lows staying above freezing.
/issued 156 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ An upper level trough is moving out of the four corners this afternoon with its fanfare limited to some extra high cloudiness across central NM. This feature should transition our part of the state by mid-day on Friday subsequently driving a cold front through on Friday morning. A nice warmup is anticipated for Sat-Mon as upper level ridging traverses the area.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. More favorable net radiational cooling conditions expected tonight with pressure ridge across the area/clear skies and near calm winds. Local radiation scheme in the low 20s. Pressure ridge extending from the northeast across the Carolinas through Friday night. Upper ridge axis shifts to the east of the area during the day Friday and southwest flow aloft developing. Cloudiness increasing during the overnight so warming up to mostly above freezing.
519 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 A much warmer afternoon than yesterday, as temperatures at 2 pm ranged from near 20 across north-central WI to the mid 30s in northeast Iowa. High clouds were streaming in from the west in broad southwest flow on the back side of mid-upper level ridging sliding to our east. That said, some soundings are indicating a sufficiently deep moist layer in conjunction with some lift as this system passes by Friday afternoon/evening that there could be some patchy freezing drizzle, mainly north of I-94.
Tranquil weather continues across the southern Appalachian region this evening as high pressure remains in control. A clear and cool day today as high pressure is now overhead.
With high pressure centered just east of the area, it's a slow weather night. High pressure will continue to slide east of the region which will cause light southerly winds (5 kts or less) to pick up around mid morning Friday.
This is indicates the mid-level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the area through the day.
Combination of increasing mid and high clouds along with a modest increase in dew points will offset the fire danger a bit Friday with slightly cooler high temps and higher RH.
The warmup has begun! Temperatures in a span of the past 24 hrs have gone from well below normal to above normal, with readings at 2 pm in the upper 30s/lower 40s which are roughly around 20 degrees warmer over yesterday at this time. However, potential to be warmer with more widespread mid and even a few upper 40s.
536 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through the remainder of the week bringing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
Meanwhile, lee troughing continues to deepen over eastern CO, which is allowing for some light return flow. By Sat afternoon the upper low is expected to be approaching the Arklatex region as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and will eventually move into the Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 40s.
These clouds could stem the temperature drop in this area but still expect values to drop into the lower to mid teens by morning. Models remain consistent on ridge building over the eastern U.
High pressure overhead which resulted in clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures during the day will continue to dominate our weather tonight. Clear skies and light winds provide for ideal radiational cooling dropping overnight temperatures into the lower 30s. Rinse and repeat for Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the lower 50s. Biggest difference from Thursday will be increased cloud cover and moisture from southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough to our west. This will result in a slightly warmer evening with lows staying above freezing.
A pretty good range of temperatures ongoing across the CWA early this afternoon, with mid to upper 50s in the southwest corner of MO into southeast Kansas while parts of Dent county have just made it into the low 40s. For tonight, will see the upper low out west begin to close off and track more southeast into the southern plains. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s out east to the low 30s out west. The low will slowly progress to the east on Friday into Oklahoma. The low will then track southeast into Arkansas and Louisiana and then the southeast U.
647 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 We will remain under the influence of high pressure anchored over the east 1/3 of the country, with weak return south flow across our area in the short term. An upper level low will move from over the southern Rockies, ending up over the southern Plains by Friday night. The models generally agree the aforementioned upper low will stay to our south and move across the Gulf Coast. This will keep high pressure the dominant weather feature along with s/wv ridging aloft.
A ridge of high pressure is situated across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with cool temperatures, low dew points and sunny skies the result. The ridge will slip east of the mid state overnight, setting up return flow by tomorrow and the beginnings of a warming trend. An inverted trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico will combine with an upper low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast this weekend to spread clouds and some rain into the mid state.
Temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night with some areas potentially being 10 degrees or so warmer. One factor is the lack of efficient radiational cooling with the higher level cloud cover entering the region and the eventual advection of the more moist air northward. Some portions of the far western forecast area around Del Rio could see less moisture and cloud cover which may allow temperatures to warm into the lower 60s along the Rio Grande.
The low level winds are currently veering from the north to the east, so wl need to watch the stratus over central and far eastern Lake Michigan for a westward drift overnight. The warm front will then move nwd with sly winds and high temps in the lower 40s for Fri afternoon.
An upper level trof will swing in from the west and this will help to drag moisture out of the gulf and above the frontal boundary.
/Issued 225 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019/ Benign fcst period on tap being largely ridge dominated and mostly clear and conditions persisting overnight. Upper flow starts to shift to more southwesterly later Friday ahead of an approaching closed low to the west.
High pressure will once again build over the area beginning tonight.
Winds are expected to reach Advisory strength in Livingston this evening, with gusts around 60 mph, as lee troffing and strong surface pressure gradient develops. Generally zonal flow at the apex of an upper ridge sets up quickly this evening following the quick moving trof earlier today. Downsloping westerly winds and decreased cloud cover will push temperatures into the lower 50s for Friday. Gilstad Dry and mild weather in store for this weekend as an upper ridge builds into the area and then flattens out for increased downslope flow.
/issued 227 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level low currently centered near the 4 Corners region will track southwest across northern New Mexico overnight. The aforementioned upper level low will then track across the Texas South Plains on Friday.
Temperatures will climb above the freezing mark each day between now and Christmas, which should easily decimate the little snow that is currently on the ground. Warm air streaming in from the southwest over the next few days will produce low clouds at times as the low-level temperatures inversion becomes significant. As we head into Friday, a developing warm front will move into the area, which is another set up for at least low clouds. On Friday, the low clouds will gradually lift north/mix out through the course of the morning.
Pacific warm front brought snow, then rain below 4000 feet, and warmer temps as it passed through our CWA this morning. Fog will develop tonight in the Lower Treasure Valley, Weiser River Valley, and Long Valley (McCall).
Low pressure will lift north across Minnesota this morning and winds will become southeast. We should see some filtered sun as high clouds move in today with a midlevel trough. Winds will become southwest as low pressure moves across south-central Canada. Low pressure will continue to move across Canada while high pressure dominates the east.
912 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through the remainder of the week bringing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Therefore will be updating forecast to account for warmer temps in the east tonight.
With high pressure centered just east of the area, it's a slow weather night.
Reaves Benign fcst period on tap being largely ridge dominated and mostly clear and conditions persisting overnight. Upper flow starts to shift to more southwesterly later Friday ahead of an approaching closed low to the west. Baker High pressure ridge centered across the Middle Atlantic will begin to push offshore on Saturday as low pressure develops across the central Gulf of Mexico.
1223 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure today with plenty of sunshine and light winds. This will lead to a very chilly morning, especially in the typically cooler rural valleys. Otherwise, high pressure will bring a sunny day with temperatures climbing a bit above normal for most of us. The high confidence forecast for any precipitation is that the southern mountains may get grazed by moisture from the southern stream upper low traversing the northern Gulf Coast.
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 A much warmer afternoon than yesterday, as temperatures at 2 pm ranged from near 20 across north-central WI to the mid 30s in northeast Iowa. High clouds were streaming in from the west in broad southwest flow on the back side of mid-upper level ridging sliding to our east. That said, some soundings are indicating a sufficiently deep moist layer in conjunction with some lift as this system passes by Friday afternoon/evening that there could be some patchy freezing drizzle, mainly north of I-94.
114 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Deep upper trough continues to move eastward with northern stream wave lifting into the Upper Midwest and southern wave in the midst of cutting off from the flow. Another deep upper low churning off the Pacific NW coast will slowly dig into the SW US over the next few days. Result of all of this will be large-scale ridging over the central US through the weekend.
There will also be upper level ridging working in tandem to lead to mostly sunny skies today. This will shift high clouds east into the Ohio Valley through the night, but still expect some ridge/valley temperature splits early in the evening before the clouds arrive. An upper level closed low will move into the ARKLATEX region Saturday. The weak warm air advection will continue to increase temperatures into the low to mid 50s by Saturday afternoon. High pressure remains in control across eastern Kentucky.
153 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure today with plenty of sunshine/light winds.
Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous, albeit very moisture-starved, closed cyclone spinning over northern New Mexico as of late evening. Expect all cirrus to clear by sunrise, as the closed low ends up near Amarillo by sunrise. The 560 dm closed cyclone tracks south of SW KS on Friday, ending up near Wichita Falls, TX by 6 pm. This storm track will induce a modest north breeze on Friday, averaging 10-20 mph, behind the associated weak cold front. Few if any clouds by afternoon, on the subsident north side of the cyclone's circulation. Ridging eminating from the Desert SW begins to build over SW KS by afternoon, with rising heights delivering full sunshine, no clouds and light winds.
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 We will remain under the influence of high pressure anchored over the east 1/3 of the country, with weak return south flow across our area in the short term. An upper level low will move from over the southern Rockies, ending up over the southern Plains by Friday night. The models generally agree the aforementioned upper low will stay to our south and move across the Gulf Coast. This will keep high pressure the dominant weather feature along with s/wv ridging aloft.
With high pressure at the surface anchored just NE of our area over SE KY/NE TN, clear skies and calm winds have allowed current temps to drop to/slightly below freezing across much of the area. Rinse and repeat for Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the lower 50s.
Low temperatures overnight into early Friday morning are expected to reach the mid 30s to low 40s along areas north of I-10, the mid to upper 40s along areas south of I-10, and the low 50s along the immediate coastline. Clouds begin to lower tomorrow afternoon as moisture begins to flow into the region ahead of the next upper level low that is currently positioned out over the southern Rockies.
A warm front ran east from the low through southern Wisconsin.
923 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Sfc ridging has shifted east of our region this evening. IR imagery continues to show increasing cirrus shield building into the region from the west in response to an upper trough that will be moving into the TX Pndl region by Fri Morning. /issued 508 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ Weak ridging aloft will continue to shift east of our region with an upper level trough located across the Four Corners Region of the country forecast to slowly shift east southeast into the Upper Red River Valley through the TAF period. Ahead of this trough, IR imagery showing increasing high cirrus overspreading our airspace from the west attm.
As the aforementioned upper ridge continues tracking east, we will see a return to southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures today will reach back into the low to perhaps middle 50s in some locations. A deepening upper low pressure system will track east across the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma on Saturday, before diving south toward the Gulf Coast. At the sfc, low pressure will form over the eastern Gulf and eventually track near the FL panhandle late in the weekend.
Dry today under high pressure. Models remain consistent on ridge building over the eastern U.
An upper level short wave trough over northern New Mexico this morning will move eastward across the South Plains and Panhandle today, but there is very limited moisture available with system. A wind shift to the north with little temperature change from yesterday is all that is expected as a weak cold front associated with the upper trough moves across the forecast area. Upper level ridging behind the departing trough will initiate a warming trend for the weekend. Mild temperatures will persist at least through Christmas Eve with mid level southwesterly flow ahead of a West Coast upper trough.
Snow continues this evening mainly across the higher elevations (above around 4500 feet) of the north. Temps will not lower much tonight as warm air advection is occurring in the wake of today's warm frontal passage.
Weak high pressure will break down today as another system moves across the high plains. Not really any moisture with the system, just a slightly cooler modified airmass. Winds to shift out of the northwest Friday morning as the next cold front moves through the area. So even with the cold front we will still be slightly above normal with the temperatures. System will quickly exit as another ridge builds over the central CONUS for the weekend. This will be a much more amplified ridge with warmer temperatures in the 60s, there may even be room to come into the low 70s for some areas.
9PM/03Z temps were running around 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours previous. /issued 249 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ High pressure will continue to shift east over the next 24 hours. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. By Friday Night, an upper level low pressure system will begin to track eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend.
340 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry and increasingly warmer conditions will prevail into the weekend as well as heading into Christmas. Yet another weak trough will move through tonight, increasing mid and high clouds but remaining dry. Somewhat zonal flow will setup as deep closed low drifts across the Gulf Coast states.
In terms of temperatures, west-northwest winds will keep the region slightly cooler than yesterday with highs reaching the upper 20s to upper 30s. This will result in some downslope winds around the Buffalo Ridge area with gusts up to 30 mph through Saturday morning. The weekend features dry weather with temperatures trending upwards thanks to light southwesterly surface winds ahead of a building upper-level ridge over the western CONUS.
252 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Updated at 210 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Warming trend to continue today, as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues over the region.
Because of this, I think we'll end up being a little cooler than originally thought.
1119 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through the remainder of the week bringing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Therefore will be updating forecast to account for warmer temps in the east tonight.
At the same time, there is quite a bit of leftover high clouds across far eastern South Dakota thanks to the position of an upper trough overhead, while high clouds are also spilling over the upstream ridge, but for now that is limited to Montana. Cloud cover should be limited as the high clouds move east, with just a few areas of low clouds/fog limited to the northern extreme of the CWA. Despite these, 925mb temperatures are nearing 2 standard deviations above climo, so will trend towards the higher end of guidance. Mild temperatures will start off the period, with the region under an upper level ridge and surface WAA.
100 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Overview: An upper level trough invof the 4-Corners this afternoon will track ESE across the southern Rockies tonight. A weak lee cyclone -- associated with a NNE-SSW oriented shear axis approaching from the west -- will gradually track eastward from Colorado into western Kansas this aft/eve. Broken upper level ceilings (15-22 KFT) will prevail in advance of the shear axis -- along with a period of breezy (10-20 mph) southwest winds on the eastern periphery of the advancing lee cyclone early this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable late this afternoon, shifting to the NNW at 10-15 mph late this evening and tonight as the lee cyclone progresses slowly east across western KS.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest at all terminals by mid day Friday. Currently, an upper trough is over the Four corners, and and dig down and pass thru the srn plains w/out much fanfare Fri. After the trough passes, an upper ridge will begin building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/thicknesses/temps increasing to above-normal by Saturday, and remaining there into the extended.
/issued 923 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ Sfc ridging has shifted east of our region this evening. IR imagery continues to show increasing cirrus shield building into the region from the west in response to an upper trough that will be moving into the TX Pndl region by Fri Morning.
The dry air will begin to moderate some over the next 24 hours as surface ridging shifts east and an H500 low begins to approach the area from the west.
A cold front will move through the region late tomorrow morning, resulting in a wind shift from the north and winds >=11 knots at KLBB and KPVW terminals. /issued 156 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ An upper level trough is moving out of the four corners this afternoon with its fanfare limited to some extra high cloudiness across central NM. This feature should transition our part of the state by mid-day on Friday subsequently driving a cold front through on Friday morning. A nice warmup is anticipated for Sat-Mon as upper level ridging traverses the area.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Expect increasing high level cloudiness today streaming ahead of an upper low moving east into the southern Plains. Dry and cool conditions again tonight into Saturday ahead of a deepening upper low moving towards the region from the northern Gulf.
1042 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will bring fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend.
1039 PM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 This will be a quiet period with a building upper level ridge over the area. Dry and slightly warmer as heights increase and full sunshine Friday. The challenges will be overnight lows in the higher valleys where they will likely dip below guidance. The upper level ridge will shift slowly east Saturday as a deep trough moves toward the West Coast.
824 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 After a chilly start this morning, temperatures have quickly rebounded up into the low to mid 30s. Current satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming in from the west out ahead of a strengthening low pressure system spinning over the TX panhandle. A deepening upper low pressure system will track east across the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma on Saturday, before diving south toward the Gulf Coast. At the sfc, low pressure will form over the eastern Gulf and eventually track near the FL panhandle late in the weekend.
603 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 For the 20/12z TAFs, VFR conditions should prevail for the entire period, but mid and high level cloud cover will be increasing ahead of a strong upper level trough that will enter the Southern Plains today. /Today through Saturday/ An upper trough currently over New Mexico will move eastward into Central Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday before finally digging southeast across North and East Texas. However, the trough will be nearly overhead, so the strong lift may be enough for at least a slight chance of isolated to widely scattered showers across most of the area during the day Saturday.
This upper low will track along the northern Gulf Coast and provide upper level support for showers throughout the weekend.
/issued 340 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ (Today and Tonight) High clouds streaming across the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough. At the surface, low level moisture is increasing across central Texas with dewpoints in the lower 40s. This moisture will continue to spread north across the Heartland and Hill Country, with lift from the approaching trough producing a few showers across the area.