Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
618 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 At H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and over the Desert Southwest. Closed low over the western plains of Canada. Closed low over the Great Lakes. With cloud cover temperatures should hold in the low 50s east and southwest and the upper 40s northwest. Secondary wave rotates around Great Lakes low diving across northern plains on Monday with temperatures similar to todays highs in the 70s north and the low 80s south with cold air advection continuing over north central Nebraska.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 82 66 86 / 70 90 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 80 65 84 / 80 90 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 80 63 85 / 80 90 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 79 63 80 / 70 90 50 10 TN.
Another round will move in tonight and bring another chance at storms, but some of the high resolution models are trending towards a drier solution overnight.
/Issued 512 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ Short and medium range models are in decent agreement that an upper level ridge of high pressure will situate itself over the southwest states through most of this week while an upper level trof of low pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern states.
An upper level ridge presently residing over the Pacific shore will gradually transition east on Monday with the axis reaching far western Montana by the afternoon.
1059 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A 110 kt jet is moving over the CWA through northwest flow, and an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
723 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A southerly flow associated with high pressure off the Southeast coast will continue in the forecast area through Monday.
1042 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A southerly flow associated with high pressure off the Southeast Coast will continue in the forecast area through Monday.
Low pressure will continue to move away from WI across sthrn Ontario tonight. High pressure will approach from the southwest on Monday increasing the pressure gradient. An upper low will sit north of the state with a mid level trough across Wisconsin. The trough axis will move east of the region during the morning, but flow will still be diffluent with steep low level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft.
Upper level ridging will build across the Desert Southwest on the backside of our departing Northern Plains trough that helped fuel an active weather pattern over the last few days. As the cloud shield mixes out during the day, steepening mid-level lapse rates may yield a few spotty mid-afternoon showers, though the CAPE profiles are quite short and barely reach the freezing level before encountering a 500mb cap.
848 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A southwest flow continues aloft over the region this evening with low pressure to our west and a high to the east. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the peninsula, with the pressure gradient tightening as an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea moves toward the southern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with increasing winds and seas along with numerous showers and thunderstorms.
712 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cooler and drier post-frontal environment will establish control heading into tonight. Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through Monday morning.
A cold front now crossing Texas will be the source of lift later this evening that will probably generate scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Red River. /issued 227 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ Cold front still working its way across south-central and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
938 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east through the region tonight.
721 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Aviation High pressure at the surface is building into the Great Lakes and a few days of cooler and drier air is on the way.
There may be some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms later tonight mainly south of Interstate 40 as a cold front moves south. /issued 309 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Lake Huron back through Indiana, Southeast Missouri, then back through Northwest Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma. Across the Lower Mississippi Valley. 12Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF indicate a potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop along the slowly moving cold front across much of the area.
The cold front is still well west of the forecast area and will slowly make its way southeast. The high resolution models are showing the threat of heavy precipitation leaving the western portion of the CWA around 04Z and being off the Cumberland Plateau by 15Z. As the cold front moves across the forecast area temperatures will drop down another 5 or so degrees before 12Z. The good news is with the cold front passage highs tomorrow will be several degrees lower than what we have been experiencing, and below climatology for this time of year.
911 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Lines of showers and thunderstorms continue to move through Central PA out ahead of a deepening trough. These showers and storms should continue through the first half of the night out ahead of a cold front that should move through Monday.
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less humid air over our area.
908 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front across northwest Ohio will move to the Appalachians by daybreak. An upper level trough will persist across the area into the middle of the week.
1141 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front across north central Ohio will move to the Appalachians by daybreak. An upper level trough will persist across the area into the middle of the week.
857 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A southerly flow associated with high pressure off the Southeast Coast will continue in the forecast area through Monday.
Cold front has generally set up along a KCHK to KFYV line with convection continuing to develop along the front and progressing eastward with time. /Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ Cold front situated from northwest Arkansas through southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Cool high pressure will settle over the region for the next several days. shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area as the next frontal boundary and upper level trough approach.
Upper level ridge will continue to build over the region through Monday. Surface thermal trough over Central Oregon Monday will bring south- southeast winds to the forecast area.
504 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A 110 kt jet is moving over the CWA through northwest flow, and an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
Temperatures range from the upper 70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere. A broad area of low pressure is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This broad area of low pressure will move slowly to the north-northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Farther north, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida tonight. The chance of rain overnight will be well above normal for the middle of June due to the aforementioned broad area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula.
An increase in precipitable water to around 2 inches along with warmer mid level temperatures resulted in storms that produced locally heavy rainfall.
639 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Closed upper low will loiter over the Northland tonight and Monday keeping below normal temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the picture. A persistent and slow moving upper low is forecast to gradually slide eastward during the next 36 hours.
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 228 PM CDT Stratocumulus clouds in the cold advection regime have filled in behind upper level low pressure to our northeast. We remain in northwest flow behind upper level low pressure, a pattern that favors diurnally driven showers, but better shower coverage potential is expected Monday as several models depict a modest wave in the flow. Temperatures look to fall slightly cooler than today's, with readings generally topping out in the mid 70s. KMD 232 PM CDT Northwest flow still expected to be in place at the start of the period, with broad upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS.
02z/9pm temperatures have dropped into the lower 70s. the region is under increasingly northwesterly flow at 500mb as the trough amplifies over the Midwest aloft. highs will set up from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Dry Monday night with lows a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
749 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east through the region tonight.
831 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Surface analysis shows a weak cold front pushing across the northeast Colorado plains. Most places over the plains have temperatures in the lower 80s F right now.
658 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 For the 19/00z TAFs, next round of convection is expected to develop tonight along a cold front that is currently located from near KLZK, westward into Oklahoma, and southwest between KGYI and KF00 towards the DFW Metroplex. Storms will continue to move south with the cold front through the remainder of the TAF period.
743 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cold front will move across the region through midnight. An upper level trough will then persist across the area into the middle of the week.
An upper ridge will give dry and warmer weather on Monday.
Terminals north of this line will see clearing skies and light winds with high pressure settling over the region.
1153 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cooler and drier post-frontal environment will maintain control through the overnight period. Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through Monday morning.
921 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Cloud cover has now overspread much of the region ahead of approaching low pressure system. Based on model forecast system movement, layer moisture and UVM progs, it appears the southwest part of the forecast area will see the highest amounts, perhaps 1 to 2 inches of sleet/snow. Soundings are all below freezing aloft across the CWA, so removed the mention of freezing rain.
Showers will dissipate this evening and clouds will gradually diminish as onshore flow decreases and high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into Western Washington.
431 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Afternoon upper level Water vapor Imagery showed a textbook upper level low over northwestern Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. This upper low was translating southeast towards the Dakotas and the Northern Plains. This cloud cover will limit the already warm diurnal temperatures to the lower 60s across the area this evening. A high pressure ridge will amplify to the west of the area through the weekend.
A weak upper trough will swing across the area early Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front sparking scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
302 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary/warm front from southeast MT to western SD to central NE. Low pressure is in place along the front across southwest SK, with cold front trailing back across western MT. The shorter range models have come into better agreement on the track of the low and upper level wave, but still some differences, with the GFS the furthest north and east. Forecast soundings suggest potential for some light freezing rain/sleet to the north and east of the Black Hills late tonight into Saturday morning if any pcpn develops. The trough will move quickly southeast of the area later Saturday into Saturday evening, with snow and wind tapering off. Cooler air will be in place for the weekend, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s each day.
A cold front will pass through the area by mid day on Saturday and will be followed by gusty north northwest winds of 20 to 30 with gusts around 40 mph for a few hours during the afternoon. Additionally, models are hinting at a few sprinkles to very light rain associated with the short wave troughs moving across the region on Saturday.
Despite the scattered convection and dense cloud cover, southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front should allow daytime temperatures to warm to near or above 80 degrees F south of Interstate 20 across East Texas and Western Louisiana. Late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night, an upper trough moving east across the Central Plains will help to push another cold front south into the region. However, most of the models are showing a much slower movement of the upper level trough. However, the farther north position of the trough may lead to a lack of upper level support for severe convection. In addition, some of the model guidance suggests the greatest vertical ascent with the trough may actually arrive behind the surface front.
To the north of this low, a cold front will push SE across NW KS and into central and southern KS by Sat afternoon. As the low treks east on Sat, think the best chance for measurable rainfall amounts will be during the daytime hours, for areas south of Highway 54/400, with the highest amounts less than a tenth of an inch along the KS/OK border. As the cold front pushes south, both the GFS and Nam/Wrf do show some FN convergence increasing.
Also, another cold front will produce gusty winds, from the west and northwest, for tomorrow afternoon.
A weak weather system and cold front will move across the area later tonight and Saturday. The cold front will bring a period of strong winds and low humidities Saturday afternoon. Winds will spread south behind a cold front late Saturday morning, elevating the fire danger across much of the area. Mostly just brisk winds and cooler temperatures with this one.
937 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east over Nova Scotia Saturday. An area of high pressure will build over the area this weekend. A trough axis moving into northwestern Ohio at this time is helping to support stratocu/shower activity. The lake induced instability is marginal, but when combined with the jet energy, trough axis, and lingering moisture under nw flow it isn't surprising to see an expansion of snow showers. The longer fetch over the snowbelt will support some additional accumulations of an few inches before the best energy wanes tonight behind the trough. High pressure will build in from the upper midwest Saturday providing subsidence and sunny conditions.
433 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary/warm front from southeast MT to western SD to central NE. Low pressure is in place along the front across southwest SK, with cold front trailing back across western MT. The shorter range models have come into better agreement on the track of the low and upper level wave, but still some differences, with the GFS the furthest north and east. Forecast soundings suggest potential for some light freezing rain/sleet to the north and east of the Black Hills late tonight into Saturday morning if any pcpn develops. The trough will move quickly southeast of the area later Saturday into Saturday evening, with snow and wind tapering off. Cooler air will be in place for the weekend, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s each day.
609 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. The primary potential weather maker in the short term will be low pressure developing across the southeastern United States and moving northeast.
238 PM PST Fri Mar 9 2018 A weak low pressure system moving into California will tap this subtropical moisture to bring periods of rain this weekend to portions of central and southern California with chances and amounts expected to decrease substantially from north to south.
906 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. The primary potential weather maker in the short term will be low pressure developing across the southeastern United States and moving northeast.
1022 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Under mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s along the island chain. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across the Florida peninsula resulting in northeast to east winds near 10 knots on our coastal waters.
1018 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure will build over the region tonight through Saturday night.
This jet places these areas under the favored right entrance Region and strengthens the low-level jet over the area. Will continue with the Winter Weather Advisory, but the best snow accumulations will be elevation dependent with up to 3 inches over the higher elevations. The lower elevations of Wise/Russell Counties will see 1 to 2 inches with only a rain/snow mix near the Tennessee state-line. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 56 49 59 / 40 70 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 54 45 54 / 50 60 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 40 53 45 54 / 50 60 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 49 41 51 / 70 60 60 70 VA.
Warmer Pacific storm brings some light rain and higher elevation mountain snow mainly Saturday.
736 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 high pressure will continue to move east into the Atlantic waters tonight from the Florida Peninsula, as the mid to upper level disturbance over western Gulf of Mexico moves east towards South Florida. High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move quickly to the east into the Atlantic waters tonight into Saturday allowing for the winds flow to become more easterly tonight into Saturday allowing for some warming to occur over South Florida.
856 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure will build over the region tonight through Saturday night.
931 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday. Lows will range from the lower 30s to the middle 20s. Upper low remains stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday before moving east at night. Temperatures rise to the lower to middle 40s during the day, and fall into the 20s or lower 30s at night under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The low is progged by the ECMWF to be down to 983mb about 215 miles e of the benchmark 12z Tue. Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday night. Meanwhile high pressure will build to the west and south.
716 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east over Nova Scotia Saturday. An area of high pressure will build over the area this weekend. Trough has pushed south of snowbelt and snow has diminished significantly. A trough axis moving into northwestern Ohio at this time is helping to support stratocu/shower activity. The lake induced instability is marginal, but when combined with the jet energy, trough axis, and lingering moisture under nw flow it isn't surprising to see an expansion of snow showers. The longer fetch over the snowbelt will support some additional accumulations of an few inches before the best energy wanes tonight behind the trough. High pressure will build in from the upper midwest Saturday providing subsidence and sunny conditions.
Light and variable winds are expected overnight tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Quiet weather will continue as weak high pressure ridge moves slowly eastward across the western Great Lakes. Upstream mid-level warm air advection ahead of short wave trof moving into the northern Plains will result in increasing mid-high clouds over srn WI late tonight and Saturday.
656 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the midwest will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
Snow and rain showers will accompany a cold front passing through the region later Friday evening. Dry, but cooler weather follows on Saturday.
940 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Have updated first period forecast grids to more closely reflect latest trends, including keeping temps a tad warmer overnight due to continued light wind and increasing clouds. Dew point depressions remain rather large, so it will be several hours until the low levels saturate to the point that precipitation reaches the surface.
917 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure over eastern Nova Scotia will back westward across the Gulf of St.
749 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure is over the state this evening. Some moisture and temperature moderation happened today though, so not expecting any freezing temperatures overnight, though some patchy frost may occur across portions of the nature coast.
656 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A persistent upper level trough will keep chances for snow showers and snow flurries in the forecast through Saturday.
Based on model forecast system movement, layer moisture and UVM progs, it appears the southwest part of the forecast area will see the highest amounts, perhaps 1 to 2 inches of sleet/snow. Soundings are all below freezing aloft across the CWA, so removed the mention of freezing rain.
TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT. Despite strong radiational cooling conditions tonight, min temperatures are expected to trend warmer compared to this morning due to shallow moisture advection with developing light SW flow above the surface, just over the high pressure ridge axis.
Have therefore lowered the low temperatures in Glacier, Toole, and Pondera Counties about 5 degrees, putting lows there in the single digits above zero. Coulston Snow and rain showers will accompany a cold front passing through the region later Friday evening. Dry, but cooler weather follows on Saturday.
541 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the midwest will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
1022 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the midwest will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
A weak ridge is building into the region, which will warm temperatures aloft.
Surface winds will trend from northeast to southeast to southwest by sunrise as weak cold front continues to move farther south of forecast area. Next weak cold front brings northwest surface wind shift around 14z to 15z Saturday, with stronger north surface winds commencing around 18z to 20z. The pressure gradient tightens again on Saturday as a short wave trough passes to our northeast sending a cold front south through the area. The cold air will actually lag behind the cold front and will not move into the area until Saturday night.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 30s and higher were across the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. medium confidence The large scale picture has high pressure over the Great Lakes providing dry easterly flow across the area.
547 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Weak ridging will bring quiet weather to the area through much of the night, but an approaching piece of energy will not allow that quiet to last very long.
Scattered light snow is falling in the high mountains early this afternoon. Models have strong west- northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA tonight into Saturday with a weak upper trough to push across mid day Saturday. The QPF fields have a tad of measurable precipitation in the high mountains tonight and Saturday. For temperatures, Saturday highs will be 5-7 C cooler than today's. Expect readings in the teens to low 20s over the plains, and really dropping over the high mountain valleys into the single digits.
High pressure at the surface will build in from the northwest and strengthen.
High pressure advancing from the Midwest into Lower Michigan will then help scour out those clouds during the night. With upper troughing anchored over the northeast CONUS, chilly weather will persist through the weekend. This high pressure will hold sway over the area through the weekend, so while some scattered diurnal strato-cu/cumulus (and perhaps a few flurries) will be possible, generally expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Challenge for the short term will be light snow chances as WAA in the low and mid levels works into the Devils Lake basin and eventually into the RRV through the overnight.
High pressure ridging over the central peninsula will begin to pull away eastward overnight. A few rural, normally cooler, spots in Lake/Volusia counties may actually realize U30s. Increasing moisture both surface and aloft coupled with a late increase in lift associated with the rapid eastward transit of a mid level short wave trough into the eastern GOMEX, with lead to increasing clouds and small late afternoon rain chances (20-30 percent) south of Lake Kissimmee-Melbourne, with QPF amounts progged to be meager.