Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low level moisture will remain on the high side for Thu which will lead to some better instability with the airmass remaining uncapped. Not much in the way of surface focus for activity Thu with upslope processes over the high Plains providing the most likely forcing for development. With lots of low level moisture in place, we will continue to see the low level cumulus in the mvfr range periodically with a mixture of rw and isolated trw at most sites.
Thunderstorms popping up this afternoon over the Coastal Range in response to UVM provided by upper low currently near the NW CA coast. Afternoon temps running cooler in most areas, minus the Northern Sacramento Valley, with greatest cooling in the vicinity of the Delta. Water vapor imagery showing stronger vort max rotating around base of upper low. Models similar in slowly tracking upper low inland across Interior NorCal Thursday.
A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas will move northwest towards the Florida peninsula, and be located south to southeast of the region by Thursday afternoon. The region will be located in a COL region, with a trough over the eastern conus lifting north of the region, and high pressure to the west over the Gulf and to the east over the western Atlantic. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 80s for the beaches and near 90 to the lower 90s inland.
357 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will extend across the region today. As the high moves off to the east, moisture will increase from the south, eventually interacting with an approaching disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms will return to our area, along with increasing humidity for Thursday, particularly east of the I-75 corridor and specifically in the lower Scioto Valley.
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A large area of high pressure will slowly move across the region today and tonight before exiting off the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday. Thursday, weak low pressure will move east through the Tennessee Valley as another low moves into the western Great Lakes. With high pressure dominating the weather today, the current forecast appears on track. Today and tonight high pressure will dominate the region. Thursday the high will drift off the east coast and low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Moisture will increase across the region, especially the eastern half of the area through Thursday ahead of the low.
Area still under the influence of departing high pressure sprawled across the Ohio Valley. Light southerly flow will help temps reach the low to mid 80s.
342 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday.
211 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A cold front is currently located just to the northwest of the CWA. Later Thursday afternoon, another cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the High Plains, mainly affecting the southwestern half of the CWA into the evening and overnight.
644 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over the region overnight. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the eastern sections of the forecast area on Thursday.
149 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure pushes east tonight. An area of high pressure, currently over the region, will push east tonight and as it does, moisture in the form of clouds will being to push north into the area. Humidity will be on the increase in the short term period, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the region. High pressure is resulting in VFR conditions across the region this afternoon.
117 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Not seeing a lot of development over SE TX so far this afternoon but with the low convective temperatures, lingering moisture and the close proximity of the upper level disturbance, will be keep- ing with at least VCSH for most sites the rest of today.
A weak short wave trough in mid levels is forecast to track across the region Thursday.
331 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Persistent low pressure center was ill-defined on late afternoon surface analysis, but satellite imagery indicates circulation remaining over e-central Tx. All in all, ridging will become established and hold through the forecast cycle.
This band is associated with a short wave trough moving through the southern half of Minnesota. As a result, the highest rain chances for tonight were confined to north of Interstate 90. On Thursday, another short wave trough will move through the region. As a result, the highest rain chances were restricted to these areas. On Thursday night, a short wave trough will move southeast through the region.
The low that has been anchored in eastern Colorado will finally begin to move east overnight. This low has brought us some windy, yet warm, days for the first part of the week. Thankfully, the pressure gradient has loosened as the trough axis moved toward western Kansas, so the wind hasn't been as strong today. As the low moves east overnight roughly along the Kansas/Nebraska border, the wind will slowly shift westerly and increase. This will help keep temperatures mild overnight, with lows 10-12 degrees warmer than last night. We will enjoy one more warm day on Thursday with highs dependent on cloud cover, however currently ranging from the mid- 70s (S of HWY 54) to the lower 60s (toward I-70 corridor). A quick-moving 1039 mb high will move toward Central Kansas from southern Alberta immediately behind the cold front.
Warmer and breezy conditions can be expected tonight. South to southwest surface winds will continue to bring warmer air to Oklahoma and north Texas. Chose not to mention thinking low level winds will be strong enough (above 10 mph) to mix the low level moisture into stratus and keep visibilities above 3 miles in these areas. Though it will again be warm and dry, the approach of a cold front will dull the south-southwest winds in northwest Oklahoma, but winds will likely be a problem farther south. A strong cold front will bring a dose of reality to the region as winter reasserts itself in Oklahoma and north Texas.
Similar conditions will be around tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front slotted to come through between 4 PM and 10 PM.
In addition to the low stratus, dense fog is expected to develop after 03Z (closer to 06Z at KAEX) resulting in LIFR visibility restrictions that will continue through the overnight and into the morning hours. Predominately LIFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the 15Z-17Z time frame tomorrow morning when the low stratus and fog will begin to lift/dissipate.
The influence of the ridge will lead to primarily dry conditions during the day on Thursday, and temperatures will warm well above average despite mostly cloudy skies.
Approaching low pressure will shift rain chances eastward over Lincoln and Mohave counties tonight through Thursday; exiting the area by late Thursday afternoon.
1037 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Currently - A reinforcing high pressure system is settling southwards into Florida and the adjacent gulf and Atlantic. This has brought in drier and slightly cooler conditions, with temperatures trying to move down into the lower 70s and dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Deep layered ridging persist and the evening sounding supported this with massive dry and warm air aloft. However, a few showers are present well offshore in a warmer and more humid airmass. It will feel nice out with temperatures settling down in the lower 70s and dew points pushing into the mid 60s. Moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail across Florida Keys waters due to a high pressure system descending into the Florida Peninsula.
Cooler temperatures with some areas of very light rain expected across Humboldt and Del Norte counties late this afternoon.
1030 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure will remain south of the area overnight.
Thursday, dry and slightly milder temperatures return as upper level ridging rebuilds.
The upper level low pressure system off the California coast will weaken as it moves through Arizona and southern Utah this evening.
A warm front is currently located to the north near the Ohio River. An upper level ridge currently over the Gulf of Mexico will expand to the north tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 72 59 63 / 80 20 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 70 59 62 / 80 40 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 54 70 59 59 / 80 40 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 72 54 59 / 80 50 50 80.
High pressure remains persistent and will produce great boating conditions with light winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.
Temperatures remained cooler across the far north, but still warmed into the upper 30s, with temps into the low to mid 40s across the south. This will keep lows mild and bring the potential for fog with the high dewpoints over the snowpack and especially into late tonight/early Thursday with a boundary sinking into the area and winds expected to diminish. Fog would then start to lift/clear out from northwest to southeast Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the forecast area.
623 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Showers that formed in a warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will move east this evening, leaving cloudy skies and patchy fog. An upper disturbance interacting with the cold front will produce widespread showers on Thursday.
Shower chances will increase again Thursday night as the cold front advances south into northern KY.
A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and onshore flow at the surface is providing the spring like conditions. For this weekend the models are in better agreement with stalling the next cold front inland across the central Gulf Coast. Northern inland areas will receive some cooler and drier air from the front, but still likely remain just above average.
638 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region through Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
Current surface analysis places low near Winnipeg, with cold front stretching off to the west near the international border. Upper level analysis places trough stretching from northern Manitoba towards the Pacific northwest, with potent wave sliding across the Canadian plains into the northern plains. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, cold front will continue to settle to the south with snow gradually developing from north to south.
307 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the northern Plains, with a trof along the CA coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central Plains with weak lee trof along the northern Rockies. Clouds will continue to increase from the north and west this evening as the next cold front slides south across MT and ND. System clears the area Thursday evening with Arctic high pressure sliding across the Black Hills.
617 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure will remain south of the area overnight.
609 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Tonight through Thursday we will see a cold front currently near the international border sag south through the area with little fanfare. In the longer term the main story will be a significant change in the large scale flow pattern across the continent, with fairly zonal flow becoming much more amplified as an upper trough sets up across the west and ridging takes hold over the east.
MVFR conditions look to become scattered and or lift to VFR conditions by the afternoon hours ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the CWA just outside of this TAF period. The temperatures will continue to be very warm on Thursday in advance of a cold front that will move through the region Thursday night. The chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will pick up Thursday night behind the cold front as a southwesterly flow aloft prevails.
Look for more activity tonight and tomorrow as a warm front sets up to our north, with winds increasing tomorrow and advecting copious warm, moist advection into the mid state.
559 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Low pressure will move across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
A closed low just off the southern California coast this afternoon will open up and move eastward over the desert Southwest. Additional short wave energy will dive into the trough and keep it nearly stationary through the weekend with a series of short wave troughs ejecting from the trough across the southern High Plains.
433 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the northern Plains, with a trof along the CA coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central Plains with weak lee trof along the northern Rockies. Clouds will continue to increase from the north and west this evening as the next cold front slides south across MT and ND. System clears the area Thursday evening with Arctic high pressure sliding across the Black Hills.
Though it will again be warm and dry, the approach of a cold front will dull the south-southwest winds in northwest Oklahoma, but winds will likely be a problem farther south. A strong cold front will bring a dose of reality to the region as winter reasserts itself in Oklahoma and north Texas.
710 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure will remain south of the area overnight.
At 1 PM, high pressure was centered over the Carolinas and a cold front was located over Montana. The increase from the northwest is due to an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, the increase in the clouds from the south is due to a short wave trough moving northeast the Mid Mississippi River Valley. During the remainder of the morning and early afternoon, a cold front will move through the region. This frontal passage looks to be delayed some, so bumped up the high temperatures anywhere from 2 to 5F. The upper level trough axis swings through Thursday night with models indicating sufficient forcing for some light snow through the evening, but with minimal accumulations.
Large scale flow pattern features a mid/upper level high centered to our north across Utah. Latest hi-res convective resolving models depict showers and thunderstorms developing across the White Mountains and high terrain from Tucson eastward midday into this afternoon which then propagate southwest into the lower elevations on northeast flow of around 10 kts.
Although the lower levels of the atmosphere is fairly dry, isolated to scattered light showers may spread ewd this afternoon when the vorticity maximum over far srn MN moves across the region. More organized rainfall is expected late tnt over south central and east central WI when a 60-70 kt jet streak from Canada begins to dig the main upper trough over MN sewd.
501 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure under northwest flow aloft will maintain cool temperatures for the weekend.
Despite the cooler start, highs will be a little warmer, thanks to slightly warmer temperatures aloft and more sunshine. Saturday night will be a near repeat of tonight, though we'll be a few degrees warmer overall because we'll top out warmer during the day.
At the start of the period, weak ridging will be in place across the western half of the forecast area.
Moisture channel imagery shows major upper trof over eastern Canada that will serve to block the eastward progression of the Dakota wave. Upper low really digs/closes Sun ngt and Mon, pushing into northern IL.
655 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain in charge through the weekend providing dry weather with below normal temperatures.
At the sfc, a large scale high pressure and dry air mass extended from Hudson Bay southward through the Great Lakes. Highs in the lower half of the 70s today with lows tonight in the middle 40s to low 50s.
Surface observations and radar imagery has been the best way to see this low as southwest onshore flow is apparent over southwest Florida while a more northeast flow persists north of Tampa Bay and along the Nature Coast. The area of low pressure in place across the area will gradually lift NE across the state through Sunday, then finally lift out to the NE over the Atlantic as weak ridging builds across the state through mid-week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period, especially through the weekend with the area of low pressure in place.
By tonight high pressure slowly begins to build into the region and winds will drop off overnight in a weakening gradient. Sunday will see a deepening trough of low pressure move into the Great Lakes as a 65 to 75 knot upper level jet dives south through the Northern Plains. With deep unidirectional northwest winds and a freezing level close to 10 kft suspect that an isolated hailer will be possible. Each of the models does indicate a weak piece of energy wrapping around the west side of the deeper trough to the east in the afternoon. High pressure settles in on Sunday night and should allow for some cool morning readings from about 50 to 55 degrees.
Moisture channel imagery shows major upper trof over eastern Canada that will serve to block the eastward progression of the Dakota wave. Upper low really digs/closes Sun ngt and Mon, pushing into northern IL. Surface winds have begun to shift a little more to the east over region, as the high center over MI drifts to the southeast.
441 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Weak upper ridging was trying to build northward across the southeastern CONUS this morning, but is not expected to make much progress into the TN Valley. This is due to a broad upper level trough, expanding across much of the eastern CONUS, that will dig southward today. As of 4 am, a mild night continues, as high clouds help keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The broad upper trough will remain over much of the eastern CONUS tonight, while an upper low develops over the western Great Lakes region. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler on Sunday, than those observed today, given the increased cloud cover.
235 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 The forecast area will be between a frontal boundary off the Southeast Coast and high pressure ridging southward along the Appalachians over the weekend. An area of low pressure will develop along the front and lift northeastward.
348 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Broad upper ridging is strengthening across the SW quadrant of the CONUS with northwest flow aloft across the northern Great Plains. Surface analysis shows weak low pressure over central WY which will be the focus for storms development today. Surface obs also showing fog across the Pine Ridge reservation through central SD. also drawing in cooler air from MT. Good theta e advection ahead of the low over the SD plains along with a weak upper wave crossing the area will trigger storm development mostly across western SD.
330 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 The dry and pleasant weather of the past few days will continue through the weekend, courtesy of high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
1140 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017 A weak Pacific low pressure trough moving across the Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin this afternoon and evening will bring scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds to the area. The trough will shift east overnight with a few lingering showers after midnight. Then dry and warmer high pressure will build north and east from the Desert Southwest and Great Basin.
318 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered over UT today and tonight, with fairly dry northwest flow aloft over CO. There will probably still be enough moisture over the area for isolated afternoon and evening showers/tstms mainly over the higher terrain. Temps today are expected to be a little above average over the southeast plains, and around average in the high valleys, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the southeast plains and mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.
A cold front will be grazing the central High Plains Saturday afternoon.
High pressure remains in control through the remainder of the weekend, keeping us dry with temps running below normal for this time of year. We'll keep a dry forecast for Sunday night just ahead of a weak closed upper low dropping out of the upper Midwest.
625 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 The forecast area will be between a frontal boundary off the Southeast Coast and high pressure ridging southward along the Appalachians over the weekend. An area of low pressure will develop along the front and lift northeastward.
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions through the weekend.
Upper ridge builds into Montana on Sunday which will allow for warmer temperatures and dry weather. Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large high pressure heat dome over the western third of the CONUS. This ridge seems to flatten out over southwestern Canada. A trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley helps to form northwest flow and places northeast Montana under the hotter side of this airmass battleground. A trough of Pacific Moisture sets to the northwest of this over the bearing Sea.
348 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will continue to reign supreme today, resulting in dry conditions with refreshing late August temperatures. Surface ridging nudging east across Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes will allow for a minor uptick in H85 temperatures, but neutral height fields in a northwesterly flow regime aloft will keep the heating suppressed with highs topping out in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Valleys will cool into the mid 50s with ridges holding in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. This will result in increasing dewpoint temperatures as the previous subsidence inversion begins to weaken/lift as surface ridging slides toward Maine.
249 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Area will be under northwest flow aloft today with subtle height rises as western ridge nudges across the Rockies. At the surface, lee trough will sharpen up in northeast Colorado, which is where convective allowing models initiate thunderstorms by 21z. Sunday will see the ridge continue to build aloft. At the surface, a cold front will sag into the are during the afternoon.
348 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure building back into the area will produce warmer and drier conditons across the region through the weekend. Sunday will be warmer with highs mainly in the 80s and low 90s.
343 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 The forecast area will be between a frontal boundary off the Southeast Coast and high pressure ridging southward along the Appalachians over the weekend. An area of low pressure will develop along the front and lift northeastward.
600 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Large area of high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will slide east and move into New England Sunday.
Low pressure over the Plains is expected to lift northeastward into the western U. Aloft, a closed low is expected to become vertically stacked over the western U. Ahead of the low pressure system, isentropic upglide ahead of the associated warm front and along the WAA will allow widespread and ongoing rain showers to slide into the west half of the U.
251 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure under northwest flow aloft will maintain cool temperatures for the weekend.
607 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure from central Canada will build over the area this weekend and remain across the region through early this coming week. A large and slow moving high pressure system will continue to build in from central Canada today bringing dry weather across the area. Some moisture and cool air will still be pooled aloft in an upper level trough slowly exiting the northern part of the region. The upper trof is forecast to hang across the CWA on Sunday w/a disturbance dropping sse during the day. Clouds will dissipate Sunday w/the trof pushing e.
259 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure remains in control through the remainder of the weekend, keeping us dry with temps running below normal for this time of year. We'll keep a dry forecast for Sunday night just ahead of a weak closed upper low dropping out of the upper Midwest.
417 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions through the weekend.