Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
922 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Seasonably cool weather conditions are on tap for tonight, with a center of high pressure settling over the region. Clear sky conditions and light winds under the high pressure regime will be favorable for the development of fog overnight. Increasing showers, along with a few tstms, return to the forecast late Sun night into Mon, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. High pressure out of the Plains states once again builds into the region briefly on Tue, before another perhaps more dynamic wx system/frontal passage sweeps thru the region mid week.
/issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ Much cooler across the area today thanks to yesterday's cold front. Current temperatures are in the mid 60s, and will gradually warm to the low 70s today. A low pressure to our northeast is allowing clouds to spill into our eastern counties which has caused temperatures to take awhile to increase at around the Tennessee River. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to upper 40s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 (This evening through Saturday) A weak high pressure will continue to promote warm and dry weather across the region. Otherwise, look for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
850 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The cold front has nudged its way down into SE GA and will continue to move southeast across NE FL overnight. A cold front will move southeast across area Tonight, with high pressure building from the northwest behind it. High pressure will be north of the region Saturday into Saturday night, with mainly clear skies. A broad range in low temperatures for Saturday night, with lows in the lower 50s inland SE GA, and middle 60s along the coast.
Lingering cloud cover is exiting the region to the east now with the upper trough pattern continuing to traverse ewd across the region. This is giving way to drier/seasonably cool conditions, as weak high pressure builds into much of the region from the W/NW. Increasing showers, along with a few tstms, return to the forecast late Sun night into Mon, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. High pressure out of the Plains states once again builds into the region briefly on Tue, before another perhaps more dynamic wx system/frontal passage sweeps thru the region mid week.
/issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ Much cooler across the area today thanks to yesterday's cold front. Current temperatures are in the mid 60s, and will gradually warm to the low 70s today. A low pressure to our northeast is allowing clouds to spill into our eastern counties which has caused temperatures to take awhile to increase around the Tennessee River. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to upper 40s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Chances for thunderstorms will increase after 06z at the NE OK and far NW AR sites as a warm front moves north through the area.
530 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Tonight, an H5 ridge will start to makes its way east out of our CWA. This trough also brings a chance of precipitation, mainly west of the Laramie Range. The higher elevations will see snow showers while the lower elevations will see rain showers due to the mild, above-average temperatures of late.
550 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A weak cold front will pass offshore overnight.
VFR conds should prevail through the TAF period, however a warm front is forecast to lift Nwrd across AR during the day on Saturday. Tonight Through Saturday Night An upper low is just north of the Great Lakes with an upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge will shift across Arkansas Saturday night. High pressure and clear skies are expected tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and in the lower to mid 60s Saturday night.
406 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The latest satellite/upper-air analysis showed a low over southern Hudson Bay, a ridge over the lee of the Rockies, and a trough over the far western CONUS. For tonight, the upper ridge will move over the CWA as 850-mb flow increases from the south at 25-40 kt and the MSLP gradient tightens. The low clouds may persist for much of Saturday morning.
Seasonably cool weather conditions are on tap for tonight, with a center of high pressure settling over the region. Clear sky conditions and light winds under the high pressure regime will be favorable for the development of fog overnight. Increasing showers, along with a few tstms, return to the forecast late Sun night into Mon, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. High pressure out of the Plains states once again builds into the region briefly on Tue, before another perhaps more dynamic wx system/frontal passage sweeps thru the region mid week.
Otherwise, the low clouds should lift by the noon hour and temperatures today will be well above normal, topping out in the middle 80s to near 90 degrees.
428 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Skies will clear out through the day today with slightly warmer temperatures across the area.
949 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The latest satellite/upper-air analysis showed a low over southern Hudson Bay, a ridge over the lee of the Rockies, and a trough over the far western CONUS. For tonight, the upper ridge will move over the CWA as 850-mb flow increases from the south at 25-40 kt and the MSLP gradient tightens. The low clouds may persist for much of Saturday morning.
[Through 06Z Sunday] Areas of inland fog may produce MVFR or IFR vsbys at VQQ and GNV until around 11Z this morning south of a slow moving cold front. A cold front will move southeast across area Tonight, with high pressure building from the northwest behind it. High pressure will be north of the region Saturday into Saturday night, with mainly clear skies. A broad range in low temperatures for Saturday night, with lows in the lower 50s inland SE GA, and middle 60s along the coast.
231 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Quasi-zonal U/L pattern across much of the CONUS through the weekend with a subtropical ridge south of the Florida peninsula over the western Caribbean and Cuba.
Clouds will continue to develop and thicken throughout the day today, with some drizzle possible by the afternoon, as the warm front lifts slowly northward into the evening hours. The timing of the cold front will then impact chances for severe storms on Sunday, and at this point the front is in the far eastern counties by mid afternoon, with most of the destabilization and strong development to the east of the forecast area.
The ridge will allow for some breaks in the clouds along with an eventual end to the lake effect showers across north-central Wisconsin and around Door County as winds back to the west-northwest. Lows are expected to range from the middle to upper 20s across north-central Wisconsin, with lows in the lower to middle 30s across east-central Wisconsin and around 40 across the Door Peninsula. Increasing clouds are expected on Sunday as a low pressure system tracks through Illinois.
Precipitation will be along and north of a warm front advancing into the area from the Gulf Coast. Tonight Through Saturday Night An upper low is just north of the Great Lakes with an upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge will shift across Arkansas Saturday night. High pressure and clear skies are expected tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and in the lower to mid 60s Saturday night.
As hinted by at least a couple of CAMs, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out late this afternoon/early evening in vicinity of the boundary as the first in a series of weak H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains in conjunction with a weakening cap. As for temperatures, prevailing southerlies will continue to pull warmer air up into southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas today as the aforementioned warm front lifts slowly north, pushing afternoon highs well up into the 80s(F) south of the boundary.
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Moisture content will greatly begin to increase across the region, as the warm front is starting to move north. /issued 942 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ Increasing dew points highlight the anticipated warm frontal boundary approaching our southwestern zones, with the 60-degree isodrosotherm drifting northeast through Deep East Texas into northwest Louisiana.
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 (This evening through Saturday) A weak high pressure will continue to promote warm and dry weather across the region. Otherwise, look for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) We remain under zonal flow with the upper level ridge just off to our west. Once clouds clear out, with the ridge overhead and southerly flow, temperatures will quickly warm up to the upper 80s and low 90s. By the afternoon, a disturbance will move across the Lower Trans Pecos, giving us a quick shot at isolated thunderstorms in this region.
How much will be there is unclear, as the NAM is very aggressive with saturating the lower levels and bringing in steep lapse rates, indicating as much as 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Nonetheless, the healthy mid-level lapse rates coupled along with the persistent lift and 30 kts or more of effective shear will translate into a a few stronger-to-severe thunderstorms embedded in a larger swath of rain along the warm front in far southeastern Nebraska late tonight into Sunday morning. Forecast soundings indicate that we could see PWAT values approach 225% of normal, with efficient rainmakers expected as the warm front moves ENE.
121 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 A weak cold front will pass offshore overnight.
THIS MORNING Widespread frost and freezing temperatures this morning have brought the growing season to an end over the northern portions of the area. Pottawattamie County west to Douglas, Saunders and Butler Counties and points south are now considered "partially" susceptible to freezing as temps there have only dipped into the lower to mid- 30s, generally speaking.
With ideal radiational cooling tonight featuring light winds, clear skies, and high pressure over the area, kept the previous low temperature forecast for tonight weighted toward the MOS guidance. Coastal counties will feature slightly warmer temps in the mid to upper 50's and perhaps some low 60's along the immediate coast. Highs Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s.
More widespread rain is anticipated on Sunday with a crossing warm front. The associated warm front will lift northward through the Ohio River Valley as flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Sunday's highs will be a few degrees cooler areawide.
The highest gusts should remain along and west of the Missouri River Valley.
Model trends have been slower and farther north with the mid-level wave coming toward the Plains tonight moving into the High Plains by 06Z and into Kansas by 12Z.
401 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near James Bay in an embedded trough over the ern U. and a trough on the west coast.
Otherwise, unseasonably warm/breezy conditions expected today, continuing into the day Sunday ahead of next cold front. Models have trended a little stronger and further south with upper low mid week, with another round of widespread showers/thunderstorms.
/Today through Sunday Night/ The warm front is continuing its trek north through the region this morning, where it looks to fully clear the area into the afternoon. It's here when a trough and cold front will begin to push through the Midwest.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 52 77 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 51 78 59 73 / 0 0 0 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 68 51 76 58 71 / 0 0 0 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 48 76 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 80.
At upper levels corresponds a weakly amplified ridge just to the west of Nebraska. This is sandwiched between 2 strong areas of troughing in the midwest and the west coast. In its wake, high pressure will briefly take its place, but as stated previously the UL ridge will be followed by a strong UL trough.
Some deterministic members have shifted the track of the low even farther south, and even show a dry forecast for southern Minnesota.
1040 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Tonight, an H5 ridge will start to makes its way east out of our CWA. This trough also brings a chance of precipitation, mainly west of the Laramie Range. The higher elevations will see snow showers while the lower elevations will see rain showers due to the mild, above-average temperatures of late. The rest of the weekend looks to be dry as another ridge makes its way into the area.
Expect today will continue to see a mix of sun and clouds with a developing east-southeast wind as high pressure in Manitoba moves east. Winds will ease on Wed as low pressure tracks through central Plains and into the Midwest. We'll be left with more of a trough/sfc front arrangement (as clustered solutions mostly move the upper trough into the southern Plains) with anomalously high enough PWATS for a stratiform period of rain from late Tue into Wed, slowly ending over the MN side at some point on Thu.
324 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Rain late in the weekend and again mid-week as upper troughing prevails - Upper low bringing some scattered showers early this morning, which will diminish as the low moves away this afternoon and evening.
WAA across our western CWA has left highs in eastern KS and western MO in the lower 70s as central and eastern MO will see their highs in the lower 60s into the upper 50s. This will push the surface boundary north as a warm front. Shower activity is anticipated to linger into Sunday morning as a cold front begins to enter into the region. Another round of storms is expected to initiate near to after 00Z as warm front starts to move north and terminals could see some activity after 00Z.
735 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Showers and unseasonably cool weather is expected today under a crossing trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is anticipated on Sunday with a crossing warm front. Isolated showers are possible through early afternoon, though most of the rain should end this morning as the trough axis shifts ewd. The associated warm front will lift northward through the Ohio River Valley as flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Higher avbl moister lingering across S FL will combine with the trough to produce sct showers and perhaps a storm or two across the Treasure Cst and adjacent Atlc waters.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all sites through the TAF cycle as high pressure slides across the Appalachians. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 51 78 59 75 / 0 0 0 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 50 76 56 73 / 0 0 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 67 50 76 57 73 / 0 0 0 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 48 76 49 70 / 0 10 0 10 80.
629 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near James Bay in an embedded trough over the ern U. and a trough on the west coast.
RMB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Showery conditions are expected at times today as a warm front lifts across the region.
1017 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Showers and unseasonably cool weather is expected today under a crossing trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is anticipated on Sunday with a crossing warm front. Isolated showers are possible through early afternoon, though most of the rain should end this morning as the trough axis shifts ewd. The associated warm front will lift northward through the Ohio River Valley as flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Upper level analysis places deep lows over James Bay and off the British Colombia coast, with modest ridge nudged into the northern plains. For today, upper ridge breaks down as a series of short waves from the west rotating through the flow nudge into the area.
A great day is expected across the Mid South as temperatures rebound into the lower 80s this afternoon.
303 AM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Pacific trof lifting through western MT into southern Canada was bringing a few light showers to northern areas early this morning. The Bighorn Mountains could see a couple inches of snow, with rain falling across the lower elevations.
The forecast area resides between a departing mid/upper trough to the east, and ridging aloft building into the region from the west. The result will be quasi-zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the forecast period. This, in addition to high pressure at the surface in place, but building east across the region, will result in overall quiet weather across the forecast area today into tonight.
Moisture with this trough is limited, and the trough is moving quickly, so precipitation will be brief, and limited to the overnight hours tonight. Measurable precip will be limited to Carbon County tonight, with a couple inches in the higher elevations and a dusting for the lower elevations. After the trough sweeps east across the Central Plains, ridging builds back across the Rockies on Sunday. Cooler northwest winds will again pick up during the day, with gusts approaching 40 to 45 mph still possible for prone higher elevations.
323 AM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Showery conditions are expected at times today as a warm front lifts across the region.
655 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 High pressure moves across the area today into Sunday.
At the surface we remain under shallow northeast winds but just above the BL we still have this relatively shallow inverted trough that is slowly meandering northwest. This inverted trough is bringing in southerly winds that are riding up and over these shallow surface northeast winds. This circulation is located near the apex of the inverted trough and some isolated showers have developed in this region. Meanwhile, aloft we remain on the northern periphery of a mid level ridge located in the western Caribbean. Then we have the inverted trough itself that continues to draw in higher than normal moisture in the lower levels. However, with that said, most of the energy associated with said trough is just outside our waters to the north.
730 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Aviation - Rain late in the weekend and again mid-week as upper troughing prevails - Upper low bringing some scattered showers early this morning, which will diminish as the low moves away this afternoon and evening.
A mid-level trough with its axis over western Montana and plenty of available moisture will keep clouds and rain showers in the forecast through this morning. The low pressure system will move north and east today, bringing chances of rain with it. By midday Sunday, flow becomes southwesterly ahead of an approaching closed low pressure system spinning off of the Washington coast. A strong upper level jet streak will be positioned over the Pacific Northwest, creating potential for gusty southerly winds on Sunday afternoon, especially over north-central Idaho including the lower Salmon River valley.
741 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 A Canadian upper trough down the eastern seaboard early this morning shifts out over the Atlantic during the day with nearly zonal/west-southwest flow aloft FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, a warmup begins today as southerly flow increases and a warm front develops to our west, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s anticipated. A few more showers are also possible overnight Saturday night as the warm front begins pushing into western Middle Tennessee, but again only our northern counties will see any activity.
Some showers may also be possible for our NE OK TAF sites early tomorrow morning as a strong cold front approaches the area. Otherwise, unseasonably warm/breezy conditions expected today, continuing into the day Sunday ahead of next cold front. Models have trended a little stronger and further south with upper low mid week, with another round of widespread showers/thunderstorms.
and its attendant cold front. Cold front is expected to push into northeast OK around 18z Sunday, with scattered storms eventually developing along the boundary by mid afternoon.
122 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Skies will clear out through the day today with slightly warmer temperatures across the area.
1018 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 (Issued 1018 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021) Clear skies will continue this morning before some scattered clouds move in this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
In advance of the trough, some increase in mid/high level cloudiness is expected overnight in association with mid-level warm advection. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to upper 30s, but since most areas have fallen near or below freezing in the past few days, freeze/frost products will no longer be issued until next spring. As a result, some of the initial forcing will go into moistening of the lowest levels of the atmosphere, possibly slowing the northward push of any consequential/heavier shower activity. Overall, the highest chances for rain during the day look to be across NE IA and SW WI before tapering north of I-90.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 78 59 75 52 / 0 0 20 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 76 56 73 50 / 0 0 10 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 50 76 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 76 49 70 48 / 0 0 10 80 50.
453 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Isolated showers are possible into this evening with a trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is expected Sunday afternoon and night with a warm front. Other than isolated early evening showers with vorticity advection, dry weather is expected for most of tonight as low level ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Shower and storm chances will increase just beyond this fcst period as a cold front moves through the region. VWP data continue to show 25-35kt WSW low level jet across the region and some renewed development on the western and southern flank of the ongoing convection is likely to continue through early afternoon, otherwise the highest rain chances are likely to remain just north of the forecast area.
Higher elevations will see snow showers while the lower elevations will see predominantly rain showers. Sunday, a ridge builds over the Rockies, clearing out skies and leaving a pleasant, seasonable fall day.
132 PM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Return flow on the west side of the high is bringing breezy southeast winds across the forecast area.
Tonight, another comfortable night is in store, with low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 50s and low 60s for our FL counties and the low to mid 50s for our GA and AL counties.
/issued 741 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ A Canadian upper trough down the eastern seaboard early this morning shifts out over the Atlantic during the day with nearly zonal/west-southwest flow aloft FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico.
327 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 An upper-level trough shifts east across the Northern Plains tonight.
Current upper air analysis shows ridge axis extending over the Northern Plains in between a cut-off low centered over James Bay and a trough over the west coast. Strong 135kt jet streak is currently moving through the trough, nosing into the Great Basin.
Sadly is appears that there was not enough filtered sunshine to really destabilize the lowest levels. These are due to an area of weak cyclonic circulation in association with a a weak inverted trough present in the same general area. A low and mid level ridge is situated across central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, turning our attention back to the previously mentioned inverted trough, this feature will maintain a slow northwest trajectory. With that said, we remain on the northern periphery of a mid level ridge located over the western Caribbean. Otherwise, the inverted trough will move north of the area by Sunday and away from the Florida Keys.