Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Largest uncertainty remains how loose already existing snow is in the face of stronger wind gusts as the low pressure system pushes through, something to keep an eye on when new snow is added into the fold. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure currently over the area is bringing a very cold night to areas where the skies are clear. Cloud cover in some areas have kept temperatures there somewhat warmer. Upper ridge moves in on Monday with warmer temperatures that will start to melt the snow.
Some patchy fog may develop, especially across north central Oklahoma, where winds are expected to be the lightest and temperature- dewpoint spreads the lowest.
Drier high pressure builds in for Monday night, with winds increasing from the N/NE especially over the coastal waters. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and a degree or two cooler Monday afternoon, with mid 80s to around 90.
Some patchy fog may develop, especially across north central Oklahoma, where winds are expected to be the lighest and temperature- dewpoint spreads the lowest.
1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Active weather and the next chance of precipitation returns to portions of northern Nebraska tonight as a short wave trough tracks through the area. For the rest of this afternoon, increasing clouds are expected across the region in advance of this trough. Precipitation type will start as all rain and change into a rain/snow mix or all snow briefly as temperatures fall below freezing across northern Nebraska.
Model consensus keeps the best dynamics to the north but it shows strong orographic forcing with the best accumulations over the highest terrain. Northwest flow will bring cooler temperatures on Sunday. Elsewhere, dry and cooler conditions with lighter winds are expected. A ridge of high pressure will flatten as it pushes east over the area on Monday.
125 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Patchy stratocu should develop overnight in cold NW flow and with a crossing upper trough. Morning stratocu will dissipate by afternoon under building high pressure. Clouds will build in from the west tonight ahead of another deepening trough. This should keep temperatures above freezing, with the exception of higher elevation ridges.
The cold front has moved east of the forecast area this evening, with some lingering showers and gusty wind. Drier conditions will continue to move into the area this evening, with widespread dry conditions expected overnight as a ridge moves towards the forecast area. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions expected Sunday and into Monday afternoon when temperatures are expected to reach above normal values. The short wave trough that brought showers of either rain or snow (or both for some) will move east of the area this evening, taking the precipitation and stronger winds with it. An upper level ridge will build in beginning tonight and bring a couple dry days with a notable warming trend. By Monday night, another trough will move into the PNW, bringing a return of precipitation.
The trailing upper trof moving across the north central conus will amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes on Monday.
This should prevent temperatures from falling below freezing. This, combined with cooler temperatures, should keep the bulk of the precipitation in the form of lighter rain showers. This could lead to freezing temperatures and frost formation if winds are as light as currently forecast. We'll see the beginning of a gradual warm-up Monday afternoon as an upper-level ridge tries to develop overhead.
still anticipating a mainly MVFR/IFR ceiling and/or visibility scenario to develop before sunrise if enough of the high clouds can clear out. Drier air enters the area in the Sunday night through Monday morning time period as the cold front finally moves across the area and off the coast. Doubt the iso/sct precip will make it much past Huntsville, although the diffuse wind shift may be observed as far south as portions of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor by morning as it pulls up stationary. Precip chances should remain on the lower end for much of the day, though they will be going up during the second half of the afternoon and into Sunday evening. High pressure building southward thru the Plains will give the front a stronger secondary push through the area.
A slow-moving cold front is draped across our southern border this afternoon, pushing southward. Low pressure is centered over the ArkLaTex region. This system will move east across the region Sunday, along with the low over ArkLaTex and the boundary to our south. Stronger thunderstorms appear to be confined to southern portions of the state Sunday afternoon, near the boundary and low pressure center. Drier and cooler air will settle into the region Monday. Highs will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s, under mostly clear skies.
359 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Quebec and associated trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning.
Clouds are expected to clear from west to east by late afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the low 40s in western Iowa to around 60s in our western counties. Stronger mixing will occur ahead of an approaching cold front late this afternoon/early this evening across portions of northeast Nebraska. As this above mentioned cold front continues to move through the area overnight, surface winds should continue to gust to 20-25kts and will increase on Monday when we continue to monitor elevated fire weather potential.
Mixed winds on the backside peak in the low 40kt range, so will maintain headlines with low end advisory possible for much of the CWA though the western CWA will be quite a bit higher and some of our more prolific sites will probably approach warning criteria.
Mostly dry across the area today with slightly cooler temperatures. Cooler on Monday with clearing skies late. High temperatures today should be a bit cooler behind the boundary and maybe a couple degrees below normal. Chances of showers increase after 00Z tonight with the highest PoPs between 06Z and 12Z. Much cooler temperatures will follow the front with a persistent northwest wind in place.
258 AM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Today through tonight: Low pressure over southeast Montana has brought a strong lift zone and plenty of moisture to it's northwest quadrant over northeast montana this morning. Monday to Monday night: Ridge will move across the areas with a chinook arch clouds. This will bring highs above freezing to most of the area leading to limited snow melt.
301 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 * Mixed precipitation with minor snow accumulations possible Sunday Night * Below normal temperatures continue through Monday Mid level warm air advection will continue to increase heights, creating a ridge over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This will allow for temperatures to plummet through LW cooling with lows this morning just bellow freezing for most of the region. With the high to the north, light easterlyly flow is expected. This ridge will be replaced as a quickly advancing mid level low approaches from the NW. Models suggest a positively tilted short wave will move through central Indiana Sunday night, along with weak moisture return out ahead of the low. Bridges and overpasses, could have some slick spots during the morning commute.
High temperatures, which are expected to be in the low 60s this afternoon, will stay around that range for the next couple of days.
NE winds will maintain the low-level CAA regime through the day, so temps will struggle into the 50s this afternoon, with only far southern Kentucky expected to crack 60. Upper wave and inverted sfc trof will push east across the area tonight, producing widespread rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Along with light southeasterly winds, the temperatures should drop to at or below freezing overnight in the northwestern Panhandles, especially closer to the CO/NM stateline where clouds will first clear out. Shortly after sunrise Easter Sunday morning, all of the Panhandles will have temperatures above freezing. Winds will go around the dial as a subtle H500 trough moves east of the Panhandles tomorrow with a small amplitude ridge in its wake.
This lift may be fighting deeper low level dry air, so amounts may be a bit on the lower side. Overall trends continue to point towards a fairly fast moving system that is fighting low level dry air, does not appear to have any instability to work with and has some thermal challenges for snow in the low levels. Monday will be on the cooler side as cold air wraps around the backside of the system and northwest winds gust to around 35 mph.
However, with the southern branch of the split trough now moving into Colorado, winds have trended downward and the airmass has cleared across much of southern Utah under large-scale subsidence. For the rest of the evening, a cold front associated with the northern branch trough moving across central Idaho and Montana will continue to make its way through northern Utah. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are associated with this cold front. High pressure will build into the region thereafter, with periods of active weather continuing through the week ahead. High pressure will build into the area Sunday. High pressure is expected to start the week with temperatures forecast in the 70s across much of the state.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage during the afternoon and evening hours as the mid to upper trough pivots into the Tennessee Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off after midnight from west to east as the trough pivots through the Tennessee Valley and into the southern Appalachians.
In the immediate term, temperatures have plummeted overnight in many locations, with the northwestern Panhandles still potentially dipping below freezing. In contrast with yesterday, heights aloft will subtly build through the day and skies will remain mostly clear, so do expect temperatures to trend warmer. Monday, temperatures trend cooler as a northern stream wave ushers a secondary surge of cooler air southward early in the day.
308 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Quiet night, as high pressure slides through our north. This high pressure will be quick to move out, as the next storm system emerges off the Rockies. High pressure kicks off to our east as the next wave emerges over the Northern Plains. Clouds will persist through the night though, which will help keep the temperatures from dropping too much, along with the cold front not coming through until late.
329 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 A midlatitude low pressure center lifting across the northern Rockies Today is bringing another round of heavy snow across the Northern Plains. The larger synoptic scale system will lift a warm front over the central High Plains this morning (western Kansas), before a cooler push of continental polar air shifts back equatorward overnight and into Monday.
1138 PM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022 The trough continues to sweep across the northern Rockies this afternoon, bringing along some midlevel instability. Pacific moisture continues to sweep around the southern edge of the trough, so snowfall continues for the western mountains this afternoon. The system will be moving to the east quickly tonight, with brief ridging building back in for Easter Sunday. Most areas will see temperatures similar or a bit cooler as compared to today, but will be near normal.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 55 65 42 62 / 60 80 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 52 63 39 58 / 50 90 60 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 50 63 39 60 / 40 90 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 47 56 37 56 / 10 70 90 10 0 TN.
The upper level trough will move eastward across the southeast United States Monday as a 500mb ridge amplifies across the western United States. a weak cold front across central Texas will stall today before high pressure across the west-central United States builds southward into south Texas tonight into Monday. This will bring a weak cold front into the Rio Grande Valley Monday. patchy fog and haze will prevail across the lower Texas coast this morning and will return across the coastal sections of deep south Texas late tonight into early Monday morning as the front approaches from the north. Above normal temperatures will continue today through tonight before cooler air filters into the CWA on Monday providing below normal temperatures.
This uncertainty only increases tonight as a cold front associated with another wave to the north slides through. At this point have winds and temps on the higher end of guidance, but opted to include some mention of frost for the entire area to raise awareness of possible impacts to vegetation.
646 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Summary: A low pressure system bringing rain/snow mix to the Northland is expected to begin this evening through Monday night. A low pressure system associated with an upper level trough will move into the northern Midwest this evening. Rain and snow mix during the day and all snow overnight is expected with a slight possibility for freezing rain, but is unlikely as midlevels should stay saturated and below freezing.
Main issue today will be Critical Fire Weather conditions behind a cold front moving through. This front may actually be occluding before it reaches eastern parts of the CWA as it catches up to the warm front just ahead of it, making the timing of the passage of the front a bit tricky.
749 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Morning stratocu will dissipate by afternoon under building high pressure. Clouds will build in from the west tonight ahead of another deepening trough. This should keep temperatures above freezing, with the exception of higher elevation ridges.
643 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Quebec and associated trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. A mid-level ridge axis pushes eastward this evening as a low pressure system moves into northern Minnesota. A band of precip spreads into far western Upper Michigan by late this evening out ahead of the center of the surface closed low. Hourly precip chances then reach central Upper Michigan shortly after midnight with the low center then over the Twin Ports.
259 AM PDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Widespread marine layer clouds clearing by late morning with warmer weather today.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will enter the region here on Easter Sunday. For most locations north of I-10, this will help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than they otherwise would be.
852 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper level ridging from Mexico spreads across the Gulf of Mexico as a weak short wave trough over northeast FL slips offshore during the day. At the surface a cold front will reside along the AL/GA/FL line as Atlantic high pressure. ridges over the Gulf. Winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet as high pressure continues across the waters today. This high pressure slides away overnight as a cold front with some showers/storms moves south and out of the state during Mon. High pressure then builds in from the north and shifts east through midweek with winds/seas up to 20 knots/6 feet on some of the waters.
1030 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 A mid to upper level cyclone is centered over the Windward Passage. One of these branches diving south down Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to infuse the cyclone with fresh batches of PV. Isolated showers across the Straits of Florida have struggled along the western flank of this swirl, eroded by dry air and squelched by the descending air on the west side of the upper level cyclone.
The upper level trough will move eastward across the southeast United States Monday as a 500mb ridge amplifies across the western United States. a weak cold front across central Texas will stall today before high pressure across the west- central United States builds southward into south Texas tonight into Monday. This will bring a weak cold front into the Rio Grande Valley Monday. patchy fog and haze will prevail across the lower Texas coast this morning and will return across the coastal sections of deep south Texas late tonight into early Monday morning as the front approaches from the north. Above normal temperatures will continue today through tonight before cooler air filters into the CWA on Monday providing below normal temperatures.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 55 67 41 64 / 50 90 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 52 64 36 58 / 20 80 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 50 64 36 59 / 20 90 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 47 57 34 56 / 10 90 70 10 0 TN.
The timing of the ascending branch of the trough will be coincident with peak heating across our area at mid- afternoon.
512 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Quebec and associated trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. A mid-level ridge axis pushes eastward this evening as a low pressure system moves into northern Minnesota. A band of precip spreads into far western Upper Michigan by late this evening out ahead of the center of the surface closed low. Hourly precip chances then reach central Upper Michigan shortly after midnight with the low center then over the Twin Ports.
The area of with the highest potential for severe storms remains the same as previously forecast; generally south of Highway 82. Although the severe threat will end during the evening a stronger clearing cold front will move into our northwest zones by 9pm and maintain rain chances along and ahead of it unto it pushes southeast of our southeast most zones prior to sunrise Monday. Temperatures will be knocked down into the 50s in the wake the cold front and morning lows will be back in the 40s across the delta.
and Monday A ridge of high pressure will keep the area dry today. Meanwhile, out to the west a low pressure system developing across the northern Plains will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs today will be a bit warmer, ranging from the upper 30s near Lake Michigan to the lower to middle 40s inland. The aforementioned low pressure system will track towards the northwestern Great Lakes tonight then across the Michigan UP during the day on Monday. The low will bring a swath of snow from west to east tonight into early Monday morning, followed by scattered to numerous snow showers later Monday morning and into Monday afternoon behind an occluded front. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 20s across the north, to the lower 30s across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
High pressure will provide for dry weather along with a warming trend today and Monday.
A midlatitude low pressure center lifting across the northern Rockies Today is bringing another round of heavy snow across the Northern Plains. The larger synoptic scale system will lift a warm front over the central High Plains this morning (western Kansas), before a cooler push of continental polar air shifts back equatorward overnight and into Monday.
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will enter the region here on Easter Sunday. For most locations north of I-10, this will help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than they otherwise would be.
Later this afternoon into tonight, a cold front will sag southward across the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms with its passage.
Tonight through Monday Upper level trough of low pressure is making its way across the inter-mountain west tonight, as this system pulls away winds will continue to ease allowing for any remaining showers to dissipate and dust to settle. As a result we will get a brief break from the active pattern for Easter Sunday and most of Monday before the aforementioned trough pushes onshore during the day Monday. Temperatures under the ridge will quickly warm from the lower 60s to low 70s on Easter to upper 60s to upper 70s with a few locations in N Nye County seeing 80 degrees. Monday afternoon and evening winds will pick up again in response to the approaching upper trough, especially out west.
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions persist through Monday while under high pressure.
A cold front wl move in from the nw this evening and bring a wind shift to the nw at GLH-GWO-HKS-JAN by 06Z. The cold front should clear the se by 11Z. The area of with the highest potential for severe storms remains the same as previously forecast; generally south of Highway 82. Although the severe threat will end during the evening a stronger clearing cold front will move into our northwest zones by 9pm and maintain rain chances along and ahead of it unto it pushes southeast of our southeast most zones prior to sunrise Monday. Temperatures will be knocked down into the 50s in the wake the cold front and morning lows will be back in the 40s across the delta.
Relatively dry and warm high pressure is anticipated to develop over the Northern Rockies for Monday.
A mid-latitude low pressure center lifting across the northern Rockies today is bringing another round of heavy snow across the Northern Plains. The larger synoptic scale system will lift a warm front over the central High Plains this morning (western Kansas), before a cooler push of continental polar air shifts back equatorward overnight and into Monday.
Quiet night, as high pressure slides through our north. This high pressure will be quick to move out, as the next storm system emerges off the Rockies. High pressure kicks off to our east as the next wave emerges over the Northern Plains. Clouds will persist through the night though, which will help keep the temperatures from dropping too much, along with the cold front not coming through until late.
High pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday followed by periods of active weather continuing through the week ahead.
741 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper level ridging from Mexico spreads across the Gulf of Mexico as a weak short wave trough over northeast FL slips offshore during the day. At the surface a cold front will reside along the AL/GA/FL line as Atlantic high pressure. ridges over the Gulf. Winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet as high pressure continues across the waters today. This high pressure slides away overnight as a cold front with some showers/storms moves south and out of the state by early Mon. High pressure then builds in from the north and shifts east through midweek with winds/seas up to 20 knots/6 feet on some of the waters.
137 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. By evening, winds will begin to veer to the east, resulting in downslope wind gusts of 20-25 kts in the ridges of PA and WV. Throughout the night, high clouds will move in from the west ahead of a deepening trough. Consequently, the lowlands should stay above freezing, but the higher elevation ridges and northwest PA will drop below.
Cold front will get its needed southward push back into the CWA later this afternoon and backdoor off the coast 2-4am.
Cold front has made its way through western SD, behind which pressure rises were 5-6 mb/3 hr this morning, but have since decreased. As high pressure settles over the area this evening, winds will diminish.
Brief gusty north to northwest surface winds behind the trough will quickly dissipate late this afternoon/early this evening. Surface ridging will back into the forecast area overnight as the center of the high moves southward to the central Great Plains, and the ridging is expected to stay in place through the day Monday as lee troughing across New Mexico will be slow to develop and strengthen.
Showers will become more prevalent after 00Z as an inverted trough edges its way across the mid state, with ceilings dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR later this evening and lasting into Monday morning.
As such, the highest thunderstorm probabilities will be kept in these regions through 18Z, decreasing into 21Z when just showers will be kept.