Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST RIDGETOPS WHERE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MTF 325 AM CST THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART EAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE APPALACHIAN STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRIEFLY TAKE ITS PLACE TONIGHT.
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS MAINTAINING VFR. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS MAINTAINING VFR.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
257 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA.
1238 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
850mb and 925mb temperatures are progged to rise a few degrees from Friday so expect highs to be 3-5F warmer. A weak cold front passes late tonight and should keep enough mixing for lows around 20F.
LIFT SHOULD WANE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING SO EXPECT -RA TO END AND CIGS TO RISE FURTHER.
103 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
ISSUED AT 300 CST FRI JAN 1 2016 THIS AFTERNOON A MID-UPPER LOW WAS CUT-OFF OVER NORTHERN CA WHILE A SHARP. A BLOCKING UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SE-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KS & WITH CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE S/SE FLOW WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN MOST TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.
442 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
339 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL BE WITHIN SPLIT FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4F TO 8F (NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA) SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S NEAR YUMA COLORADO (WHERE WINDS OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE WEST WEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES) TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 FOR GOVE.
224 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PERHAPS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO SUPPORT THESE SHOWERS.
328 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 A weak ridge will build over the area as a cut off low along the OR coast will lift NW as upper trough moves on the CA coast.
THE CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH HAVE RESULTED IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. WITH REX-TYPE BLOCKING SET UP OVER THE NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
255 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WEST TX TO KY WAS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT'S ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH) AND WESTERLY WINDS. ECMWF/GFS/NAM BRING A POCKET OF WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO 5C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT INTO THE DVN CWA WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST.
348 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. AT LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNDERDONE BY ALL GUIDANCE AS SNOWPACK IS INFLUENCING THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THE THERMAL RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL INFLUENCE HIGHS SOMEWHAT BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FAR NORTH WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS AS THE LOWER ATMOS IS DRIER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED IN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS SO HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSIONS AT HELENA AND BOZEMAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT FOG. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
257 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
AS SUCH THERE'S A RATHER NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS TN/AL THIS EVENING WITH READINGS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS TENNESSEE WHILE MIDDLE 30S ARE COMMON ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD FOG/FREEZING FOG BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE BUT OVERALL SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SO DON'T EXPECT MAJOR ISSUES. THIS BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION.
928 PM MST FRI JAN 1 2016 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION I70 NEARLY DELINEATES THE FRIGID TEMPS THAT CUTS ACROSS THE NRN VALLEY COMPARED WITH THE WARMER VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS. WARMER AIR ALOFT MEANS STRONG STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE WITH HARDLY ANY WIND OR MIXING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACCOMPANIES THE WARMER AIR AND MANAGES TO GENERATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ABAJOS BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW. AN ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING RIDGING TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE A 'DIRTY' RIDGE AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED OVERHEAD KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
359 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOWS WILL BE IFFY DEPENDING ON IF WE GET THE NEEDED CLEARING SOON ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
1130 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT LOWS WARMER ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS.
WINDS ARE N 10-15KT FOR A FEW THOUSAND FT AND THEN BACK TO NW AND EVENTUALLY W AT 20-60 KTS UNDER THE CIRRUS AND 70-100KTS ABV THE HIGH CLOUDS. /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AND TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HAS A TRAPPED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL DRIFT TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH THE AREA STUCK BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE EVENING.
These precipitation chances will continue into the evening hours but will come to an end by midnight as the trough axis cross the region and lift shifts to the east.
1129 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
315 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS BTWN 5 TO 10 KTS AND CLEAR SKIES.
300 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THIS COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA KNOCKING OUR HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SAT. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN MOST TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.
1110 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 AT H5 HUGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HIGH OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON. UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 500HPA RIDGE. THINKING WARMING PATTERN AND 15 TO 20KT WINDS AT 850HPA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. KEPT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS AND IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE LOWS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER THAN THE SANDHILLS.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH AREA 06Z-12Z OR SO. BUT MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WITH LOWER VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF ICE NUCLEI COULD PRESENT A BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/EAST COAST.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER A LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. BASED ON RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS OVER A LARGE AREA AND THE HISTORY OF NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG LAST NIGHT.
1115 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 544 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN THE MEAN TIME A VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS OUT WEST ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING AND HAD TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OUT WEST. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT WITH WARMER PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO BIG WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY.
148 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
458 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ROUGHLY BETWEEN BROOKSVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL CANADA.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TONGIHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
553 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE LAST WEEKEND HAD MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER WITH WIDESPREAD 60S.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 65 81 58 / 40 30 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 65 81 55 / 40 40 20 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 65 80 54 / 40 40 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 61 79 52 / 50 40 20 0.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH THE DAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OUR REGION. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES STALLED ALONG/S OF I-20 LATE TONIGHT. DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINFALL.
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. SFC TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE FAR NW FA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NW FA AND WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING.
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTH, THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN, AND BY 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO JUST BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HUSTON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY. BUT EVEN THE HIGHLAND AREAS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN OREGON. FOR WED THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS LESS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THU BEING A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN THE LOWS. THE LOW THAT BRUSHES CLOSE FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALSO ELEVATE WIND WITH A STRONG GRADIENT. A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACRS CNTRL/SRN MN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS PERIOD. THE VRY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE RETREATED NORTH OF TAF SITES WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. SHRA/ISOLD T WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN UNTIL COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. EXPECT THE FOG TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS 925 MB WINDS TURN SWLY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MARGINAL SFC BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS WENT WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LARGE RAIN AREA WHICH IS ALSO SITUATED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAKE MI BY 21Z TODAY. A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO PERHAPS MO SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEY WILL RACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR NEEDED TO PRODUCE ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HELD BACK FROM THE ACTUAL STORMS. MID LEVEL VORT IS ELONGATED IN A N-S FASHION AND BASICALLY IS RIDING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT H5. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE WELL WEST OF OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SHOULD NOT AIDE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF STORMS TO A SEVERE LEVEL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGION IS NOW UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION. TEMPERATURES WARMING UP QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 80S AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 90. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.
Winds are coming around to the northeast as a cold front moves into the area and will become elevated and gusty in the next few hours. /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015/ Base of upper trough moving east of the area this morning as brief upper ridging begins to move over the region today.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE TUESDAY AND COOLER AS A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
901 AM PDT Mon May 11 2015 Cooler and more unsettled conditions expected this week across the interior of NorCal as several weather systems affect the region.
719 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE METROPLEX AND WAS MOVING THROUGH WACO AS OF 12Z. /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO DALLAS TO ABILENE AND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODEL TAKES THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA IS MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SITUATED BETWEEN IS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM IL DOWN TO WEST TX. MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE. DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SEEN IN THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING. WITH THE COLD FRONT SO FAR BACK TO THE WEST. THREAT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE BY 20Z/MSL AND 22Z/HSV AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.
640 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 AM WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
1123 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEY WILL RACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR NEEDED TO PRODUCE ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HELD BACK FROM THE ACTUAL STORMS. MID LEVEL VORT IS ELONGATED IN A N-S FASHION AND BASICALLY IS RIDING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT H5. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE WELL WEST OF OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SHOULD NOT AIDE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF STORMS TO A SEVERE LEVEL.
1027 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015 An update has been sent to lower afternoon high temperatures behind a strong cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are also still expected to develop this afternoon along and south of I-10 as a disturbance interacts with the cold front. Winds are coming around to the northeast as a cold front moves into the area and will become elevated and gusty in the next few hours. /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015/ Base of upper trough moving east of the area this morning as brief upper ridging begins to move over the region today.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TODAY.
1106 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IS AFFECTING THE JAMES VALLEY REGION. AND A WEAK INDUCED RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF SOILS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ATLANTIC CLOUDS DENOTING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST. SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. NORTHERN WATERS MIGHT NOT SEE THOSE SPEEDS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEARBY.
1019 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL GIVING US A VERY PLEASANT MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S WITH THE COASTLINE COMING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
633 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEEP 1002MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNNING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN IA. DRAGGING OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI BY 18Z. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN WI. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI. LOOKS DRY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
THOUGH CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE DURESS OF THE HIGH RIDGE. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. RICH MOISTURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS REGION. LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING SUBSIDENCE DRYING BENEATH THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE WARMER FOR TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF NORTH GREATLY LESSENING CHANCES OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO WEST TEXAS. BROAD LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY INITIATION INTO WEST TEXAS.