Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
1203 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN OHIO HAS KEPT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTH WHERE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY NOON.
COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME ON MONDAY.
331 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WHICH EXTENDED INTO THE YUKON. AN ELONGATED ARE OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA EAST INTO NRN QUEBEC. SOUTH OF THE LOW. IN BETWEEN THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HAS SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND HAS PUSHED A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH FROM SRN CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIT MORE AMPLIFICATION IN THIS TROUGH.
A cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours, turning winds to the north/northeast. As the low level jet picks up this evening, winds will become gusty at KABI from the south. The lower elevation of the southern sites will keep winds from becoming as strong, but there may be some occasional gusts at these sites as well. These low clouds will continue through the later morning hours before a more southwesterly flow dries the lower levels out, and clears skies. A weak cold front will move into the area after 18Z/12PM, turning southwest winds to the north at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD by late afternoon.
PROTON UPPER RIDGING IS GIVING WAY TO A PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA. EXPECT CONTINUED THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH SOME TEMPS DIPPING JUST BELOW FREEZING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN.
350 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 A NOTABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS PRETTY WEAK AS IS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW/MID 30S THIS MORNING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT THEN THE UPPER 40S/50S TUE NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHRTWV TROF IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BEFORE MENTIONED SHRTWV TROF WILL LARGELY MISS OUR CWA TO THE N OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA ON TUE MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS QUICK MOVG SHRTWV TROFS FOLLOWED BY QUICK WARM-UPS WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED. THE GFS IS GENERALLY COOLER THAN THE GEM/EC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE PREFER THE WARMER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. CURRENT KOAX/KUEX WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WHICH WILL MIGRATE EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY.
BUT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
Amplifying ridge on Mon and into Tue should push the warm advection precip N of our CWA. with warmer and drier conditions over our CWA.
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
A strong pressure gradient will persist through the night across the area as low pressure deepens and moves across the northern Plains. A cold front tracks across the area between 6 AM and Noon on Sunday with a sharp wind shift out of the northwest and increasing gusts of 30 to 35 mph. The warm start and delayed modified cold advection with this front will still allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s. The upper air pattern transitions from northwesterly to a zonal flow Sunday night through Monday ahead of the next upper trough moving into the Plains from the Rockies.
1232 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE NORTH FL PENINSULA PROVIDING A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT/NEAR CALM WINDS. A LINGERING EXTENSION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. LOCAL PCPN FORECAST WL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ALIGNED EAST-WEST OVER NORTH FL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT WEAK STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN CWA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE WEEKEND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER PATTERN STARTING OUT COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST AND THEN TRENDING WARMER BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TEND LIGHT N-NELY AFTER 10Z ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWD. A DRIER AND WARMER OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
/ISSUED 915 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
1226 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
259 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 A cold front will approach and move through the Ozarks today. The frontal passage will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area for tonight with lows in the 30s.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WELL UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MOVE UP EVEN ACROSS THE RIDGES AND NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST. PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV/MD.
/ISSUED 832 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ South winds will stay up tonight with lee trough persisting to our west. A concomitant cold front will sweep into the region Sunday afternoon.
309 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALSO HELP MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS A BIT. WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY AND ALSO MAY DRY OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE. MIN RH VALUES ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE LOW END.
258 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
136 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEST GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE STRONGEST THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THEN DIMINISH IN THE COOL NW FLOW BEHIND. COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SHOWERS LOOK TO FOCUS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET.
AND THESE WILL IN TYPICAL SEASONAL RANGES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE MONDAY TO BRING AN ONSET OF RETURN FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES FINALLY TURN COOLER ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
1240 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. CREATING A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PRIOR TO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
349 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS ON TIME THIS MORNING AS IT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES BY 12Z. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ALDRICH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OUT WEST AND A PERSISTENT LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY.
EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT TUE NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH LIGHT WINDS. DOES APPEAR RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THU NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BY FRI AND INTO SAT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
300 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 A series of 3 shrtwv trofs will pass thru/near area today, Tue, and Thur. Progression of these shrtwv trofs and assocd fronts are enough to preclude significant moisture return and thus the dry/warm pattern looks to continue in the near/medium term. However, there are reports that lower elevations of the BBNP are starting to flower out mitigating concerns some? As it is now Wed is the day with the greatest fire wx concerns per a prominent low level thermal ridge and a general dry/unstable atmosphere along with a potentially windy afternoon and widespread high temperature departures of +15 degrees.
A RIDGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST. AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE MS AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
Lee trough deepening rapidly in eastern Colorado, providing strong SW winds and strong downslope components this afternoon. All model guidance sweeps associated dry cold front through SW KS between midnight and 6 AM Sunday. With all the mixing, morning temperatures Sunday will be very mild for late February, with most locales holding in the low to mid 40s /some 15 degrees above normal/.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF ARIZONA WITH BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
309 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THIS FCST CYCLE WITH NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT RESULTS IN NORTH WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
BUT OVERALL KEPT MOST OF THE HIGH POPS AND BEST ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LANGDON IS ALREADY 23. MORE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THERE IS A COLD FRONT AS WELL. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BRINGING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT 20F COOLER FOR HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 30F COOLER THAN TODAY.
MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINTE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WA CASCADES. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND ITS COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN THEN END. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND STALL OVER NORTH TX AND AROUND THE LA/AR BORDER. ALSO DURING MONDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
420 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
133 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS HIGH POP REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPPER LOW OPENS OUT ON ITS MOVE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLES AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THRU FOR PASSAGE. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DOES LIFT ACROSS MEAN UPPER TROF AND THRU OUR AREA TMRW.
619 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAIN IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE GREATEST OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ALSO PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE EAST.
150 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.
BOTH NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT THIS AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
225 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD GET CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER LA.
339 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) A weak cold front continues to move slowly south across southern sections late this afternoon. Going with a dry forecast on Sunday with surface ridging in place. Skies will be partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures warming into the lower 80s areawide. 24 (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Weather pattern will finally change for the area as dry weather and warmer conditions take hold. No precipitation is anticipated through the coming week as upper level ridging builds and remains over the forecast area.
252 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015 Persistent stratus cloud deck has been slowly eroding from the northwest today, but it appears unlikely that clouds will not dissipate much east of the Highway 81 corridor by this evening. With the clouds in place, afternoon highs will struggle into the lower 60s. and lows should range from the lower 50s east to the middle 40s in north central KS where more clearing is expected. This will make for a pleasant Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s. Tomorrow night the moisture begins to advect northward over the high plains. During this time the flow aloft remains out of the northwest as the upper ridge builds over the southern Rockies.
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS.
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
305 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015 A surface cold front has pushed through the forecast area, with cooler and drier air advecting into the region. While a few pockets of drizzle will be possible through tonight as the upper trough axis passes through, the large majority of the area will remain dry, with all measurable precipitation to the east of the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday will be several degrees warmer than today, with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows Sunday night will once again be cool with the dry airmass, clear skies, and light easterly winds, with readings in the lower 50s.
1211 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015 A cold front will continue sliding southeast through the forecast area today, veering winds to the northwest and gradually ushering in cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Although most showers have dissipated along and near the surface front, a few sprinkles are possible as the upper trough moves over this afternoon/evening, and widespread cloud cover will likely continue through most of the day.
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
150 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 SUBSIDENCE WITH 700-500MB RIDGING APPARENT WITH DEMISE OF MOST OF THE STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SEABREEZE IS SPREADING INLAND AND RIDGING ALOFT IS SLIDING EAST SO FULLY EXPECT THAT WITH 87-90 DEGREE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON THAT STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR SW-NE THROUGH THE HOUSTON TAF SITES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N TX INTO W C TX.
MID-LEVEL RIPPLES AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. ONCE AGAIN EAST COAST SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE SPURRED BY THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PLATEAU.
141 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015 A Canadian frontal system had shifted across southern Missouri this morning, bringing cooler temperatures, cloud cover, and northwest winds. For tonight, expect the potential for some patchy fog development as the cooler air nudges dew points closely. The GFS is suggesting the development of a cluster or rain to develop in this area due to an upper trough axis moving through.
A weak ridge builds Sunday along with it warmer temperatures and scattered afternoon showers or a thunderstorm.
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR SE ZONES.
REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS/SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE AXIS OF 585-587DM HEIGHTS STRETCHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSE TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND PROGGED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. COOL AIR ADVANCING ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TODAY WITH THE EASTERLIES OF RECENT DAYS VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW/DISTURBANCE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
341 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 COOL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA.