Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should continue to limit moisture. The high-resolution models displayed scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater moisture and less upper ridging. Leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with the greater chance in the south section. The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The subtropical mid/upper level ridge will continue to be the primary weather influence for the ArkLaMiss region as we go into the weekend. Recent area RAOBS show that strong subsidence and drying associated with the ridge has maintained a capped airmass, and this is expected to remain the case. Heat stress will also continue to be a concern in association with the ridge.
Models are all in decent agreement on the upper ridge building over the northern plains today, but vary quite a bit on where exactly they bring precip. The high- res models have some decreasing in the convection as it moves east, but then redevelops it over our southern counties towards morning. With the ridge moving overhead the 700mb temps get up into the low to mid teens C. Some severe storms with hail and winds the main threat although with some shifting winds along the warm front a tornado or two isn't out of the question in the evening.
313 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA through the weekend.
High pressure then builds in from the north over the weekend.
Upper level low now over the Pacific Northwest will be shifting eastward into the northern Great Basin today.
Main impact weather today will be winds as an upper level low situated over Washington state moves east across the northern Rockies. Cold front associated with the system looks like it has moved through the forecast area and cooler air behind it will keep daytime highs today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
101 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool moonlit nights will be the rule.
353 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the WESTERN Great Lakes will slide across the area by Saturday evening.
224 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA through the weekend.
While this boundary may briefly graze extreme northern Arkansas, it will mainly stay north of the state before washing out or lifting back to the north as a warm front, depending upon which solution you buy into.
A ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will build into the southern Appalachians for Saturday with drier air suppressing convective development.
/Today/ The near to slightly below normal temperatures look to be a one-day event, as warmer air will be working its way back into Iowa today. This low will help build a theta- e ridge across the upper plains, with the far western portion of the DMX CWA being along the eastern edge of this ridge.
300 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 As the upper ridge over the plains shifts east ahead of the upper low moving east through Montana along the U. /Canada border, a short wave trough embedded in the upper flow moves off the central Rockies and across the central high plains region during the evening and overnight hours tonight. During this time a prefrontal trough deepens along the front range ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the forecast area early Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday following the cold front will be in the 80s to lower 90s. Isolated storms are expected to redevelop and become scattered over the far eastern sections of the forecast area by afternoon along and ahead of the cold front where there is a more favorable shear profile and greater instability and available moisture.
Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor by midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then shifts subtly east later in the week.
/issued 233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend Region. The exception may be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.
High pressure will control Indiana weather through tomorrow as it travels from the northern USA and eastern Canada to the east coast.
Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf coast today.
Water vapor imagery is showing an upper low (TUTT?) over NE Mexico which is progged to move toward the Big Bend of Texas late Saturday. Maybe a degree or so warmer today for most of South Texas (based on 2 meter forecast and 850 mb temperature), but then cooler on Saturday with more clouds and rain-areas.
Between the two features rather dry sinking air was in place from the Big Bend through the Big Country into North Texas where an elongated west-east oriented ridge was in place. Several weak disturbances rotating around the north and west side of the ridge coupled with a 30+ knot southerly LLJ have been enough to support a couple of different MCSs, one over north-central OK into southeast KS, and another from southwest KS into the Texas Panhandle. It does appear the drying air with the upper ridge will gently edge northwestward over more of the CWA this afternoon and evening effectively shutting down any low thunder chances.
The lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona. As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around 80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal. During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as short wave trough approaches the area from the central and northern Plains. With clearing skies and winds becoming light/calm overnight as high pressure settles over the region, focus is on fog potential at both KRST/KLSE.
103 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Low pressure over the region will begin moving southeast this evening taking a frontal system along with it. High pressure will build in from the north Friday and Saturday.
346 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Broad high pressure aloft remains across much of the Southern U. Airmass will be slightly warmer today with expected high temperature values 2-5 degrees warmer and readings back in the mid 90s across the plains.
135 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Aviation High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Saturday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the added rain and clouds in the area. The upper level ridge tries to reestablish itself over the area on Saturday.
The latest NAM would suggest that the far eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few severe storms this evening. On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO. Zonal or quasi-zonal flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure builds from the south. Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys.
Tonight Through Saturday Temps across the CWA are on the order of a few deg cooler than about this time on Wed. A cold front continues to slowly drop south across MO early this afternoon. but with the upper level ridge weakening over the region. the higher dewpts will be across NRN sections of the CWA where the temps will be coolest and due to more cloud cover. Temps on Sat will be warmer however as the upper level ridge expands back over the state. This ridge will also keep precip chances lower than expected on Fri.
The low to mid- level waa and low level moisture advection set-up on a developing low level jet overnight lends support to some isolated to scattered elevated shower and thunderstorm development /accas- type convection/ during the late night/early morning timeframe. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure to the west will tighten up on Friday. Main challenge then becomes precipitation chances as the low and associated frontal boundary track across the area. Weak high pressure moves in behind the exiting system. Cooler air returns behind the front on Saturday.
338 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Upper level high is centered near DFW early this morning. An upper level low was located over northeast Mexico moving west northwest.
A dry cold front will enter northwest Utah this morning, then continue into southern Utah by early Saturday. This will bring breezy winds today and cooler temperatures for Saturday.
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England. Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended from west Texas to Florida. Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front. Canadian high pressure settles overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s.
249 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and will slowly move east of the region this weekend.
335 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 An upper level ridge remains centered over North and Central Texas today, but an upper level low currently moving north through Mexico will work against the influence of the ridge this weekend. As the upper level low moves northwest along the Rio Grande Valley this weekend, deep southerly flow in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will help transport moisture north into the region. As the influence of the upper level ridge is weakened by the upper level low, this is also expected to allow isolated to scattered storms to develop across parts of the region.
336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the coming week. Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce some rain. It should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the century mark along the Rio Grande.
611 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and will slowly move east of the region this weekend.
634 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes.
A mid level trough will continue to slowly translate westward into the Rio Grande Plains over the next 24 hours. With unidirectional flow from the surface to 500 mb, very little shear is expected to develop with this low. As the low shifts westward into Mexico Saturday, significant deep layer moisture advection spreads into South Texas and further increases PWATs well above 2 inches if the GFS is to be believed.
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the ridges and far south during the afternoon. The will promote, at least, a modest increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced convection. 500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through most of the weekend.
Surface winds will increase and become gusty at all terminal sites by mid to late this morning as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing sfc trof of low pressure over the plains of ern CO and ern NM. Surface winds will increase and become gusty at all terminal sites by mid to late Friday morning as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing sfc trof of low pressure over the plains of ern CO and ern NM.
Upper level ridging builds across the region with toasty 850mb temps spreading eastward. In regards to temps and winds today, continued to side with the highest end guidance numbers, or even higher in some cases. The low RH combined with the gusty west winds will bring fire weather concerns, but will have to assess the status of the fuels before determining any headlines.
The first moved out of the high plains and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern OK again as a cold front approaches from the north.
mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high pressure regime. As the high pressure region drifts east. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today into tonight. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.
248 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A persistent forecast pattern to continue through the weekend with upper-level ridge holding across the region allowing for high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s each day.
Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday's storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots.
The 500MB ridge dominates across the central and Southeast plains through the period.
522 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should continue to limit moisture. The high-resolution models displayed scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater moisture and less upper ridging. Leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with the greater chance in the south section. The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals, with highs today in the 90 to 95 range and lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
A long wave upper level trough is now moving through the Pacific Northwest. A broad ridge will build over the area.
High pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection across southern zones after 18z. Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and assocated frontal boundary farther south. High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast.
Will see weak ridging aloft combined with an area of high pressure at the surface and a slightly drier air mass move in tonight. however there is another trailing upper trough that may be capable of a few very light rain showers or sprinkles across the Twin Tiers and southward into NE PA in the late morning and early afternoon. slightly warmer than the past couple days.
/issued 248 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ A persistent forecast pattern to continue through the weekend with upper-level ridge holding across the region allowing for high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s each day.
147 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight through Saturday providing an extended stretch of dry weather. Lows tonight will range between the upper 50s and low 60s, with highs on Friday into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will trend warmer into Saturday with highs into the upper 80s.
427 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 High pressure will be the main influence on the north country's weather through the weekend.
700 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will push through the area tonight. Low pressure will develop south of the area this weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Another cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week. Have fcst on the cooler side of guidance banking on there being more clouds than sun, with highs generally in the lower 90s south and west to upper 80s north and east. Should there be more sunshine than expected, instability parms would be on the higher side and thus a possibility of a few severe storms as deep layer shear is on the order of 30+ knots. Lows generally in the low/mid 70s.
The stagnant pattern remains across the area again this morning with the mid to upper level ridge across the northern gulf coast and the sub-tropical ridge stretched from the Atlantic into Texas and Louisiana. This will keep the warm and moist flow off the gulf while the ridge aloft keeps shower activity reduced, however the ridge is not strong enough to end all activity.
Ridging is in place over the CWA at the beginning of the short term.
150 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Low pressure and a cold front will slowly push south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region Friday into Friday night. The high will remain over the region into Saturday.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper level observations depict mid/upper level high pressure centers over north/central Texas and near 30N/120W with Arizona in weak troughing between these two highs. Meanwhile, the greatest moisture and instability is expected to be along the international border this afternoon and have focused the higher pops along these areas in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.
The main upper level low will move from the western Gulf across Tamaulipas and into Coahuila.
443 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper ridge moves east today and tonight in advance of the upper low moving through Montana along the U. Saturday high temperatures will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s following the passage of the cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon along and in advance of the cold front mainly across the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through the weekend. This looks like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland, although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating that is able to generate ahead of the cold front.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS into western MO later today. Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively- induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front lifts into Iowa. By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley.
356 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
448 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The main concerns for the forecast are severe storm potential today and tonight as strong upper low pressure system approaches, followed by strong winds on Saturday behind the storm. On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery shows deep upper low pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest with upper level ridge axis centered over the Dakotas, progressing eastward. Some differences exist in timing with CAM solutions, but appears to be around 03Z when widespread convection increases across the west as low pressure system and associated cold front move into the state.
Weak 500mb ridging forecast to nudge into the Midwest. For these reasons, sfc dewpoints will stay in the lower to middle 60s and the humidity level will be fairly comfortable. Temps will range from the upper 80s southwest to the lower 80s northeast. Low pressure tracking into NW Minnesota will cause sfc winds to veer to more of a southerly direction. However, scattered storms look more favored during the afternoon with moisture pooling along the leading warm front.
Relatively strong Pacific origin cold front passes early Saturday ushering in a cooler and more stable airmass, thus no showers and thunderstorms anticipated for Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures some 8 to 15 degrees cooler than today and have again compromised between NAM and GFS MOS high temperatures.
1024 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016 Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. To the east, a cold front will be responsible for steady rain with embedded t-storms over Idaho/SE WA. a deep low pressure system tracking into the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct -shra will develop under the low center in and around north- central WA impacting Wenatchee.
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will push through the area tonight. Low pressure will develop south of the area this weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Another cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week. Rain cooled temps have dropped into the lower 70s many areas. Have fcst on the cooler side of guidance banking on there being more clouds than sun, with highs generally in the lower 90s south and west to upper 80s north and east. Should there be more sunshine than expected, instability parms would be on the higher side and thus a possibility of a few severe storms as deep layer shear is on the order of 30+ knots. Lows generally in the low/mid 70s.