Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016/ The synoptic features across the region include a weak inverted low level trough across the northwest Bahamas and an upper level low centered just south of Cuba with recent water vapor imagery clearly depicting this feature. The aforementioned upper level low south of Cuba is forecast to retrograde west today into Saturday and the moisture surge across the Straits today is forecast to exit the region into the eastern Gulf later on Saturday.
Maliawco Synopsis: A heat dome exists across the the desert southwest while a cool core trough runs from British COlumbia through Ontario. This morning: The boundary between cool air to the northeast and the warm air to the southwest will continue to retreat back to the northeast as the ridge to the west amplifies. Patchy fog will be possible in limited areas tonight due to the incoming warmer stable air aloft, the previous evening rain raised dewpoints, and lower surface rain cooled surface temperatures with incoming clearing in the skies. This afternoon: Axis of the weak ridge to the west will move across northeast Montana providing a stable atmosphere with warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Friday night through Saturday morning: Ridge axis will exit the area allowing for cooler air aloft to move in and begin destabilizing the atmosphere.
A weak dry cold front near McCall and Ontario and will cross the remainder of Southwest Idaho through this afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler in Southeast Oregon, with little change in Southwest Idaho. Compact upper low over Vancouver Island this morning will move slowly east along the WA/Canadian border today, and will be over the ID/Canadian border Saturday. Associated upper trough and cooler air will overspread eastern Oregon today and Saturday, and western Idaho tonight and Saturday. Weak cold front will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms late today to northeast Valley County, ID.
Today and Saturday will be similar to yesterday although slightly warmer. but with models showing an upper level disturbance moving south and east across the high plains. temperatures will increase into the mid 80's to mid 90's in the afternoon as a ridge axis begins to build northward along the continental divide and moves eastward.
With Southeast Texas sitting on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge and deeper moisture well to the east of the terminals, think any SHRA that are able to develop today will be too limited in coverage to include mention in the TAFs attm.
With an increased level of cloudiness today, highs will range cooler than normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s. For tonight, think most of the evening will be dry and will wait for the next subtle wave moves off the high plains.
/issued 527 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/ An upper trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will influence area weather. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity today and the cloud cover it will generate will keep afternoon high temperatures near to slightly cooler than normal. The upper level trough extending southward from the Great lakes region over the Southeastern States shows signs of filling but the southern extension still lingers over the forecast area. 9 inches and a broad area of low pressure projected at the surface will serve as a focus for convection as diurnal heating drives up instability.
/issued 436 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/ Latest surface analysis continue to show a ridge of high pressure over the north half of Gulf of Mexico. Upper air analysis showed a high over the southwest CONUS and another just off the east coast, weak trough axis from central Tennessee to Mississippi coastal waters and a short wave over Oklahoma. Upper level high will remain over southwest CONUS as the short wave will drop into the trough late tonight. This will maintain the weak trough axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area through Saturday.
923 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Pleasant, slightly cool conditions this morning as high pressure ridge will lingers over much of the state.
Otherwise, strengthening high pressure will bring dry conditions for the weekend.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today through tonight as the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across the area. /issued 417 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA today through tonight before it begins to weaken. Saturday as a weak 500mb low/inverted trough across the north central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon moves westward towards the lower Texas coast Sat afternoon. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal waters tonight into Saturday and isolated convection will develop offshore the lower TX coast as a result.
1227 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be weak upper troughing over the area. We followed the high- resolution models with the placement of highest pops. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance based on recent verification. Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico during much of the medium-range period. The models showed some troughing in the forecast area. The models indicated upper ridging early but troughing along the east coast by the middle of the week.
The other is that fairly strong subsidence between 850 mb and 700 mb could keep much convection from forming, and this look reasonable based on the fairly well defined trough axis that extends further southwest form South Carolina into southern Alabama and into Louisiana.
A weak upper level low over the northeast Washington border with British Columbia will move into Idaho and Montana on Saturday.
With light winds and 850 hpa temperatures in the lower teens, expect to see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible in the morning through around midday, although potential will likely wane a bit around midday as the low level jet tapers off.
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and tonight with another round of thunderstorms. A slow moving cold front well w of the border is forecast to slide across the region today into tonight.
A weakening ridge of high pressure over Southern and Central California will result in another warm day inland. Coastal influences and onshore flow will keep temperatures seasonably cooler near the ocean and bays. Cooler temperatures are expected by Saturday as an upper level trough develops off the West Coast.
Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer but still seasonable of this time of year. in the lower 90s.
Upper trough moving through the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi River Valley creating weakness in Western Atlantic upper ridge over the region. Western Atlantic high pressure axis remains stretched over N FL with increasing SE flow over the area through Saturday. SE flow regime to keep temperatures near seasonal levels with highs in the lower to mid 90s, except near 90 at the beaches.
Weak high pressure over the area early this morning. Though if low level jet is stronger than progged enough instability north of the surface warm front (which will be nr the ND/SD border) could have some hailers in SE ND/wnctrl MN Saturday night.
Closed low pressure was noted over southwestern British Columbia with a low amplitude ridge extending from western Montana into Alberta. Cloudiness today will hold back highs today with readings in the lower 80s forecast.
For the rest of the day, with Canadian high pressure overhead and cool mid level temperatures, soundings are marginally unstable, which will allow for isold/sct afternoon convection. Not much for forcing aloft however as a low amplitude ridge develops ahead of the next upper trof which begins to move across the Northern Rockies. Warm advection will increase 850mb dewpoints, upwards of +17C and the low amplitude ridge becomes centered over the eastern CWA.
Lift would be supplied by disturbances moving around an upper level ridge situated AZ and NM. The high being positioned to our west would allow the MCS to propagate southeastward. A marginal threat for severe weather exists for most of the FA with strong winds being the main threat due to inverted V sounding profiles in the low to mid levels. A threat for severe hail also exists but will be limited due to the freezing level being located around 12kft AGL giving hail plenty of time to melt. Highs today will be cooler (low to upper 90s) given that thicknesses will be lower by a few DAM as the upper ridge is further west.
1011 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast toward the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday.
903 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 East-West Ridge axis across North Florida has weakened slightly since yesterday and will allow for storm motion to be more south to north across North Florida, then turning more SW to NE across SE GA although speeds will still generally be around 10 mph or less with some erratic motion due to outflows and sea breezes pushing inland from the coast. Max temps will top out close to 90 degrees where activity starts over inland areas while the remainder of inland areas will still reach into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices close to 105 degrees. The East coast sea breeze will hold max temps in the lower 90s along the coast.
/Today/ A few different concerns with the forecast today as thermal trof slides through the northeast corner of the state. The aforementioned thermal trof will keep temperatures below normal across the state this afternoon with highs kept in the 70s. The combination of these cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will make it feel quite comfortable outside for much of the day.
Dominant Srn US upper ridge will be anchored over AZ/NM through Saturday with weak disturbances dropping out of CO into NW TX.
and should see temps in many locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
1056 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Dry and hot conditions will persist across the region again today as high pressure centered over southern Arizona keeps the monsoon at bay.
909 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring slow cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer through the weekend with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending into the western valleys. high pressure aloft over the central and and southern plains will strengthen and expand westward.
Marine layer is up to around 1500 feet this morning as upper troughing increases over NorCal. Moderate to strong Delta breeze overnight has helped to advect some cooler air into portions of the Southern Sac Valley. As a result, temperatures are running upwards of 7 degrees cooler in Delta influenced areas. High temps tomorrow expected in the 90s for the Central Valley with 80s for the Delta and portions of the foothills, 60s and 70s for the higher terrain.
The upper level ridge will start to build over the area which should keep any storm chances to a minimum.
The morning sounding shows a dry layer in the low to mid levels.
The high dewpoints that we had the last few days are well to the east at this time, and extensive cloud cover is over much of the area. The cold front is still well to the NW. Models hint that front just falls apart and becomes part of the lee trough this weekend. Will keep the highest pops close to the cooler temps aloft up N. Saturday looks like it should be more comfortable but additional showers could pop up with the base of the longwave trough swinging in.
929 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will drop southeast across the region today with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm confined to the mountains and foothills.
Lower dew points will work into region tonight along with cooler temperatures as mid level heights lower, and weak high pressure moves southeast from the Great Lakes.
1214 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will drop southeast across the region today with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm confined to the mountains and foothills.
1217 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Hydro Cloudy and cooler weather with a few light rain showers can be expected today as a Canadian cold front drops south through the state. High pressure will bring clearing skies tonight and a sunny and pleasant Saturday.
Models have been slower to develop the convection with latest runs, however, and suggest the stronger storms will be further north and west with the front/trough axis during the afternoon.
creating a better chance for scattered convection in the afternoon as the upper trough continues to slowly move through the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 91 71 / 50 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 89 69 / 30 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 90 69 / 40 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 66 86 65 / 30 30 50 40.
Upper level analysis places low spinning along the Washington/British Columbia border with modest ridging ahead of the low. upper low settles to the east-southeast and opens up while ridge breaks down. Re-enforcing wave comes through in the evening as lobe of an upper low over Hudson Bay swings remnants of aforementioned opened low through the area.
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Long wave pattern with a trof to our east is producing northwest flow aloft.
754 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Aviation Cloudy and cooler weather with a few light rain showers can be expected today as a Canadian cold front drops south through the state. High pressure will bring clearing skies tonight and a sunny and pleasant Saturday.
After today, upper level ridging will begin to develop over the central plains this weekend. It is unclear how much destabilization will occur by this afternoon over western Kansas given that the low level winds today will be from the southeast from areas that have been stabilized by previous thunderstorms. However, it's also possible that ongoing convection over western Nebraska will just keep developing southward into the low level instability axis and move across western Kansas this afternoon and evening as an MCS per NAM/ECMWF.
An area of high pressure builds across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes today, but despite this there will be a chance for showers in some locations across the Northland today. A weak mid-level disturbance moving across the northwest flow aloft will aid in a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing this afternoon, with the highest chance across areas around Lake Superior due to the lake breeze acting as a boundary for showers to develop on. Still, at least a conditional risk for showers and storms, with the best chance for thunderstorms along and south of the Highway 210 corridor in east central Minnesota. Highs Saturday warmer in the mid 70s with south-southwest increasing to 5-10mph with gusts to 20mph possible.
Upper level ridge remains locked over the southwest CONUS. Disturbances will ride down the northeastern side of the ridge across OK and northeast TX going into the weekend. At the same time an inverted trough/upper low will approach the South Texas coast. Slightly higher moisture and approach of inverted trough/upper low on will keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler on Saturday.
736 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 An area of high pressure builds across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes today, but despite this there will be a chance for showers in some locations across the Northland today. A weak mid-level disturbance moving across the northwest flow aloft will aid in a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing this afternoon, with the highest chance across areas around Lake Superior due to the lake breeze acting as a boundary for showers to develop on. Still, at least a conditional risk for showers and storms, with the best chance for thunderstorms along and south of the Highway 210 corridor in east central Minnesota. Highs Saturday warmer in the mid 70s with south-southwest increasing to 5-10mph with gusts to 20mph possible.
Warm advection across the high plains is supporting the development of scattered storms in northern NE. The low level jet warm advection is currently focused over western NE and will continue to support this activty, but the warm advection is not as strong over south central NE. With the region still under the influence of the Great Lakes high pressure and possible cloud cover highs should stay in the 80s today.
An upper level low pressure system is currently spinning along the Canadian border and is forecast to only slowly drift east through the day.
Expecting wind chills to reach -25 to -30 this morning, although low clouds moving in may keep temps a bit warmer. Warmer air will begin pushing into the area from the southwest. Warmer air will continue to move into the region tonight as low- level winds will become southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough.
While the primary high will remain in Canada, but lobes of the high will progress east into the region and will crest around 09 to 12Z time frame. The valleys in the SW will have the best chance of seeing lower teens given the high timing and placement. While most of the area will get above freezing some spots could remain around freezing. That said even though the high continues to shift east would think we could see upper teens in the far eastern valley locales once again for Saturday night.
/issued 319 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ A large area of clouds that has kept temps a few degrees warmer overnight, may hamper temps from warming through much of the day. Forties and lower 50s expected on Saturday, but with gusty south wind, it will feel a bit cooler.
The most noticeable/highest confidence trof will be Sun. An inverted trof will move thru Sun morning as weak leeside low pres organizes and eventually heads into the mid MS Vly. Return flow will develop and strengthen Thu as the high departs into the Ern USA. Another arctic cold front will surge S and cross the fcst area in the Fri-Sat timeframe. Mon night: Becoming windy behind arctic cold front.
/Issued 258 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016/ A cold dome of high pressure will continue to build over the area through the short term and bring some of the coldest temperatures felt so far this winter. Most locations will start out this morning with temperatures at or well below freezing. Decided to go a degree or two cooler than guidance. High pressure settles over the southeast on Saturday and begins to modify. yet still probably 5 to 8 degrees cooler than normal for most areas.
Model consensus continues to be outstanding through the entire period, with all of the global model suites, and the vast majority of their respective members keeping the SW US under flat ridging and dry west-northwesterly flow aloft, with little day-to-day change in temperatures. Lower desert highs are expected to rise into the low-mid 70s each day.
At the beginning of this period, we will be under and upper level zonal pattern, with not significant troughs of ridges over the US. At the surface, cold high pressure has settled over the area.
On Saturday onshore flow and thus a warmer and more moist airmass will try to spread back in. A coastal trough looks to form which along with the increasing mstr should lead to isolated showers/areas of drizzle over and near the coast through the day.
The axis of a low level ridge will shift eastward, with southerly flow returning and 850 temps warming a few degrees. Thus, expect highs to quickly warm above freezing by 9 am and then into lower 40s during the afternoon.
Flow should turn more erly after sunrise tomorrow as the center of the high pushes ewd to the Tennessee Valley. Further north, across central LA, skies have largely cleared which should allow for temperatures to continue to fall to near or below freezing over the next few hours. Gave some considerable thought as to whether to issue a freeze warning for the I-10 corridor, but while I do expect some areas along I-10 to reach freezing tonight, I don't think it's going to be for a long enough period to warrant a freeze warning.
Temperatures did drop below freezing north of Houston mainly away from any big towns.
As high pressure continues to slide southeast over the next couple of hours, temperatures will likely fall by a few more degrees.
Moderate to breezy northwest to north winds and cloudy skies will continue this afternoon as relatively shallow, cool high pressure prevails over the area. Moderate to breezy northwest to north winds and cloudy skies will continue today as relatively shallow, cool high pressure spreads over the area, setting up an inversion up to about 850 mb.
3 AM CST surface map showed a 1040mb pressure ridge extending from the Canadian high plains south into Texas and Oklahoma.
Early morning surface analysis had a >1040mb north-south oriented ridge axis over the plains. This ridge will shift east through tonight and become centered over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Saturday morning. This will result in warmer wind chill values in the lower 20s versus the teens.
Due to the enhanced low clouds temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees cooler than what was forecast.
210 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic high pressure will build across the area through Saturday.
340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 This afternoon the Arctic High that has been the "Star Of The Show" all week was centered over Saskatchewan with its attendant ridge punching SE all the way to the Gulf Coast. As expected, the semi- inverted ridge is shifting slowly east as a compact surface cyclone develops over Northeast NM. The clouds are winning, as temperatures across KICT Country are in the 25-30F range whereas in Southwest KS and the Panhandles where skies have cleared the mercury has soared into the lower 40s.
1231 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Dry air has begun to move into the region as high pressure edges closer and has allowed for the lake effect snow to recede back towards the lake.
Overnight low clouds are concerning in terms of this mornings lows and the high for this afternoon. To the southwest, expect clearing of low clouds earlier and temps should be warmer.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic ridge remains across the forecast area today.
250 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
The evening begins with Arctic high pressure centered over the local region and an upper ridge axis in line with the Northern and Canadian Rockies. An upper closed low centered over Vancouver Island will be ejecting Pacific moisture into the PacNW. The low opens up as it moves inland tonight, knocking down the ridge and sending moisture across the Divide.
Surface ridging continues to build into the region today, and with minimal mixing expect temperatures in the single digits below/above zero (mainly dependent on morning lows with a 5F- 10F rise expected).
latest models are maintaining the highest snow amounts over the southern part of the state. Have watched this all night and has actually begun to spread back to the southwest as the fetch off Lake Oahe has turned clockwise with the surface wind flow as the high pressure moves on through. Wind chills not a problem as winds are light and variable under the high, so no headlines needed this morning even though they are issued to areas north and west.
Daytime highs on Saturday will be closer to seasonal averages with increasing south winds bringing warmer air into the region.