Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH DANGER AS WELL. DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
930 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. AND SLOPED COLD FRONT ALOFT RISE/FALL COUPLET. THE ONLY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT NE WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NRN IA AND WEAK WAVE RIPPLING ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE REGION.
935 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
Nighttime freezing temperatures will be common over the next 7 days with daytime temperatures in the 50s.
945 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS NEVADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY UNDER HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. PATCHY FOG MOVING ASHORE FROM OVER COOLER GULF WATERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND COUPLES WITH LOWER PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.
712 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI.
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EAST WHILE A MODEST SHORT WAVE OVER TX APPROACHES. WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND INCOMING DISTURBANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY. THIS MAY BE HINDERED THO BY MODELS SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE ENE.
937 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2015 An upper trough will bring a slight chance of showers to the northern mountains this evening, then breezy north winds tonight into Thursday.
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH BACK EDGE OF LIGHT RAINS EXITING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.
EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHSHORE AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
upper ridge axis. as 850-hPa thermal ridging and low-level downslope flow extends into the area. expect most clear skies and slightly warmer conditions with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s. trended overnight numbers a few degrees warmer than guidance.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIXED PRECIP THEN SOME SNOW FRI INTO SAT.
335 PM PST THU JAN 15 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
18Z GUI REALLY DIDNT CHANGE MUCH AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FCST AND LOOKING BACK TO THE WEST THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE THINNING SOME BUT GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD STILL SEE CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS NOT REALLY DECOUPLING HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MORNING LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST IN THE GOM AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING.
A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA TO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE.
743 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
Weak high pressure will move south-east of the area for Friday with low pressure moving into the High Plains.
/ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LED TO A WARMER DAY TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED FOR FRIDAY AS LEE TROUGHING INDUCING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FOG POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG.
/ISSUED 244 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WERE PREVAILING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
A weak cold front will move thru during this time, but is expected to not be accompanied by any clouds. This front will quickly be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure around daybreak Friday. Preferred the cooler MOS temps for mins tonight, and in spots, went below the MOS.
941 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015 TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ALONG RIVERS/LAKES/VALLEYS, AND ADJUST DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAINLY OVER S MIDDLE TN AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER N AL--SOME CLOSE TO RIVERS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED FREEZING FOG ALONG RIVERS, LAKES AND VALLEYS, AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.
255 PM PST THU JAN 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER. WITH LINGERING DENSE FOG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR FROM N. BUT THE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION. 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 5760 METERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WARMER AREAS, BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WHERE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILED. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE PACNW BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW TODAY IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT WHILE A PAC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S.
/ISSUED 345 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) Finally, a sunny and relatively warmer day across West Central Texas with temperatures in the mid 50s areawide. Radiational cooling set up tonight, so overnight lows at or below freezing for most locations. Warmer on Friday with highs climbing well into the 60s.
/ISSUED 330 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND WRN GULF COAST REGIONS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL GULF WATERS. EXPECTING ONE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MINS AT OR NEAR FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT BALMY AFTER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPS STRUGGLING TO THE LOWER 40S.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLEARING SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A CHILLY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S /AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST/.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHICH MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND WARM UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE PASSES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRI. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN ON THE COAST LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER. DENSE FOG PERSISTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING DENSE FOG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR FROM N. BUT THE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION. 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 5760 METERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE.
After reaching the upper 40s and low 50s this afternoon for northeast Kansas, temperatures quickly drop off near sunset as the low level inversion sets in. Short term guidance continues to trend cooler, underestimating the depth of mixing and WAA. By the afternoon, h85 thermal ridge axis spreads into central KS as temps warm to near 10C. While I don't expect to mix this deep, model soundings suggesting winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained with occasional gusts over 20 mph may advect warmer air from the southwest and mix down from 925 MB to the surface.
TEMPS IN THE VALLEY ONCE AGAIN WERE GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS IS ALLOWING MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THE PLAINS AS LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
ALL OBSERVING STATIONS INDICATING THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE ABOVE FREEZING /THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME COOLER POCKETS/. AND WE ARE STARTING TO HEAR REPORTS OF ALL /LIGHT/ SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DADE COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH QPF TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN ETC/. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON ROADS.
TO CLEAR AND FREEZING AT RUSTON AND JUST BELOW AT DEQUEEN AND STILL ROOM TO FALL TO FORECAST LOOKING AT DEW POINTS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON, OREGON AND EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE PUSHED INLAND AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS PARALLEL (WESTERLY) TO THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND EARLY FRIDAY SO THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA AND SOUTHERN OREGON BORDER. SOUTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE, THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED RIDGE WINDS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHERE TEMPS WERE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPS WERE ALSO HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME INSTANCES OF FREEZING FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMALS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER. WITH LINGERING DENSE FOG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR FROM N. BUT THE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION. 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 5760 METERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
500HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND BROAD TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROF AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR TRAPPED IN THE TROF AND CONTINUED NORTH TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE AND HOLD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY OF FULL INSOLATION FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF AND A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL HELP TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW 60S FOR THE CAPROCK WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
931 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY.
634 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLIP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 249 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ MID STATE IN BETWEEN THE GULF SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS ARE SLOWLY RISING AND AT 20Z ARE ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS WITH NASHVILLE APPROACHING 40 DEGREES.
803 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE EASTERN END OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THERE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE A TENDENCY FOR A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AT TIMES THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FOG MAY BECOME THICK ENOUGH FOR FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FREEZING FOG NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER FORECASTS. ALL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE.
BUT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND AS FAR SOUTH AS VERO BEACH. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A MELBOURNE-KISSIMMEE LINE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND 150KT JET WILL BE IN TANDEM WITH BEST LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY BUT EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WITH A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. /ISSUED 244 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WERE PREVAILING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FEEL THAT TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH WARMER. LATEST ECE GUIDANCE WAS ALSO 2-3 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO.
ANOTHER WEAK TROF RAN FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BACK INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE INITIAL COLD START MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHEN WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF SHOULD BRING LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIMESECTIONS SUPPORT A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
At the surface, high pressure will move east tonight away from the area and be replaced by a surface lee trough.
512 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND ABOVE THE CWA WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AT THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND.
653 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 IFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TAF CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOW CIGS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SHARPLY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO ARIZONA.
AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT (TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING OVER MOST AREAS). WILL SEE A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY. FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH WEAK FLOW FRIDAY AS RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA. THEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
859 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2015 A weak cold front/trof is currently dropping into northwest Illinois, and will exit central and southeast Illinois to the south and east by Friday Morning. A fair amount of sunshine this afternoon along with sw winds 8-14 mph was giving milder temps in the mid 30s to lower 40s (mildest from Jacksonville sw and in southeast IL) Bloomington was cold spot just shy of freezing at 31F. A weak surface trof over southeast parts of WI/IA will pass se through central IL dry tonight with some patches of mid level clouds with more clouds arriving later this evening and overnight ne of I-74. Surface temperatures will be slightly cooler across the CWA tomorrow.
551 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2015 A fair amount of sunshine this afternoon along with sw winds 8-14 mph was giving milder temps in the mid 30s to lower 40s (mildest from Jacksonville sw and in southeast IL) Bloomington was cold spot just shy of freezing at 31F. A weak surface trof over southeast parts of WI/IA will pass se through central IL dry tonight with some patches of mid level clouds with more clouds arriving later this evening and overnight ne of I-74. Surface temperatures will be slightly cooler across the CWA tomorrow.
ONCE CLOUDS DO BREAK, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS STILL ON THE ROADS WILL LIKELY FREEZE ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED SURFACES (LIKE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES) AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL THAT FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS.
1000 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 335 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AT MID AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO WITH THE MORE COOLER MODEL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WHICH MAY IMPAIR THE EASTERN AREAS FROM REACHING THE LOWER 20S. FULL SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL SEND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
ALL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. AS OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS MOVING EAST BACK TOWARDS US AS A WARM FRONT.
We still can't rule out a few pockets of freezing drizzle Friday morning in the Bitterroot and Clark Fork drainages, though it appears more likely that the region will see a mix of snow and rain (or none at all in areas with the strongest downslope winds).
Pockets of sleet and freezing rain will also be possible.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WILL ADD TO THE MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DECENTLY TONIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LOW STUFF OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR AT LEAST THIRD WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION SOFTENING IT UP A BIT OUT THERE.
SOME OF WHICH ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 30S. SERIES OF LEE SIDE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING SOUTH TOWARD THE IA MN BORDER.
HIGHS WERE QUITE COOL ACROSS SOUTH MALHEUR COUNTY WITH 5 PM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING.
1233 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH 09Z.
TEMPS IN OUR TN COUNTIES WERE ALMOST TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS WITH OTHER AREAS SCATTERED BETWEEN THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SOME VARIABLE MID CLOUDS. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS AVAILABLE FOR THIS COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS TROUGH, WITH RAIN THIS EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS CLOSER TO A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S FROM HAYS TO ELKHART, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT MANY LOCALES OVER THE INTERIOR TO HIT FREEZING. IN FACT, A FEW MESONET SITES HAVE JUST HIT THE FREEZING MARK. SEVERAL OTHER INTERIOR SITES LIE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND A FURTHER FALL IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED. THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SOUTH FL WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW.