Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to build more effectively into Kentucky this afternoon while a series of waves continue to slide past to the southeast. The remains of this trough's energy does pass through eastern Kentucky Sunday afternoon along with some slight height falls. Heights then drift lower as a stronger trough passes by well to the northeast. The wave and its moisture/lift move on out of the region Sunday afternoon with a pocket of drier air and high pressure to follow.
Breezy winds before sunset may bring minor drifting impacts, but so far there haven't been any visibility restrictions from older snow being lofted likely due to the warmer temperatures and marginal nature of winds. Temperatures should be a bit cooler Sunday due to the frontal passage (still in the teens to 20s), with coldest temps where stratus layer (and flurries) may linger.
431 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to build more effectively into Kentucky this afternoon while a series of waves continue to slide past to the southeast. The remains of this trough's energy does pass through eastern Kentucky Sunday afternoon along with some slight height falls. Heights then drift lower as a stronger trough passes by well to the northeast. The wave and its moisture/lift move on out of the region Sunday afternoon with a pocket of drier air and high pressure to follow.
For central terminals, -FZRA will be possible in some areas as temperatures hover around the freezing mark.
516 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Extensive cloud cover is persisting across west central Texas this afternoon as mid-level Pacific moisture streams across the southern Plains ahead of an upper-trough. Clearing conditions and resulting light winds will help temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 20s tonight. Tomorrow, high pressure will be the dominant feature for the region.
Much warmer temperatures associated with this ridge aloft will move in as well with 700 mb temperatures increasing from -12 C today to 1 C over Denver by tomorrow afternoon. The warmer air aloft will mix down to the surface tomorrow with the aid of sunshine and subsidence as temperatures warm well above normal.
742 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
845 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will extend east into the mid-Atlantic tonight.
929 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Increasing rain chances will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops offshore. High pressure wedging in from the north will remain through the period. Assuming the overnight hours turn cloudy enough the area should not see quite the gradient in temperatures as today's highs and most areas should dip into the low to mid 40s. Rain chances spread NW to SE across the area on Sunday as some very weak isentropic upglide gives way to PVA and height falls ahead of a very sheared out trough. A cold front dropping southward out of central Canada will approach the southeastern US quickly on Sunday evening.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low 60s most areas, with upper 50s possible in normally cooler interior locations north of Orlando. Ridge that was in place aloft continues to shift southward as a mid- level trough axis pushes into the southeast U. Dry and very warm conditions will persist, however, with highs still ranging from the low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s over the interior.
639 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will move south of the region tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will then cross the region Sunday night.
958 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
625 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 A drier and modestly warmer low and mid level environment ensures VFR conditions under clear skies tonight. Cold front on pace to move across southeast Michigan throughout Sunday. next round of stratus arrives Sunday afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Lake clouds and flurries have diminished this afternoon as a push of dry and slightly warmer air under the southwest flow advanced across srn Lake Mi. There will be some shallow low level frontal forcing along the cold front as it pushes south into the area.
A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Gulf of Alaska and northeastern Pacific continues to approach the Pacific Northwest this afternoon.
Currently, the upper level flow is predominately out of the NW, but a the development of a broad low over the Northern Plains has kept this NW flow from reaching the lower levels. Without any strong forcings attached with this region of lower heights, near surface pressure should remain stable, with generally high pressure over the Ohio Valley. This will block any moisture return needed for low level clouds and precipitation as this low passes through the region. Winds near 850-700 mb will increase as this low steepens the pressure gradient, and with mostly clear conditions, the resulting deep PBL could allow for occasional gusts this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Quiet and mostly clear conditions expected today and tonight, with winds remaining light under surface ridging conditions.
However, a brief period of a rain/snow mix is possible near the TN/KY border and into VA where temps will be in the low to mid 30s.
1249 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. Snow showers will return late Sunday with the next cold front. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high shifts east of the region in response to an digging nrn stream trough near the Great Lakes/Ontario. Broken, weakening snow bands are expected to quickly advance into our region from the north Sunday evening with the passage of the trough and its associated cold front. Isolated snow showers, in the wake of the cold front, are expected to continue after dark Sunday.
213 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Lingering upper level troughing over the central CONUS will finally pull eastward today as an upper ridge axis begins to build in over the Four Corners region. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure currently analyzed over West Texas this morning will slowly shift eastward today with light northwesterly surface flow becoming southerly this evening. Chilly temperatures will return tonight but will be kept in check by modestly increasing southwesterly surface flow as high pressure shifts slowly southeastward away from the region. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will slowly move east during the week resulting in a substantial increase in thickness values overhead.
Wet bulbs, however are close to freezing in the northwest and north central areas and that's where the ice pellet reports have occurred thus far. No accumulations are expected and temperatures by sunrise should still be at or just above freezing.
328 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today before a cold front returns a chance of snow showers to the area tonight.
Robust lower to mid level ridging is strung across Florida, with almost zonal flow to our north. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the area through a deep layer. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with dew points creeping up to near 70. A ridge system to our north will maintain gentle to moderate east northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
1128 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. Snow showers will return late Sunday with the next cold front. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high shifts east of the region in response to an digging nrn stream trough near the Great Lakes/Ontario. Broken, weakening snow bands are expected to quickly advance into our region from the north Sunday evening with the passage of the trough and its associated cold front. Isolated snow showers, in the wake of the cold front, are expected to continue after dark Sunday.
256 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Discussion/Marine - Only light snow chances this week with fast moving clippers The northern stream dominates the next few days with fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada. A low moves across southern Canada today with trailing cold front extending through the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, as temperatures fall to near or below freezing across southwest Arkansas, some freezing rain may be observed mixing in with the otherwise liquid precipitation. Lingering cloud cover will keep lows in northwest Louisiana in the 30s, while areas north of the I-20 corridor stand the best chance of falling below freezing.
1004 PM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper trough axis continues to gradually shift eastward, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, broad troughing covers the region, with high pressure over western WY. As warmer air advects into our area ahead of the wave, temperatures Sunday will rise into the 40s and 50s.
1103 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 A drier and modestly warmer low and mid level environment ensures VFR conditions under clear skies overnight. Cold front on pace to move across southeast Michigan throughout Sunday. Next round of stratus arrives Sunday afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Lake clouds and flurries have diminished this afternoon as a push of dry and slightly warmer air under the southwest flow advanced across srn Lake Mi. There will be some shallow low level frontal forcing along the cold front as it pushes south into the area.
A mostly quiet near-term period is expected as high pressure slides into the Central Appalachians from the west. A weak open wave of low pressure passing by to the south will overall do little more than keep mid and high-level clouds across the area into this morning. After a mostly sunny Sunday with highs near normal, some clouds may sneak in across the northern part of the CWA as the tail end of a cold front brushes the area.
Ridging will also rapidly build into the CWA this afternoon increasing the subsidence.
1117 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
1235 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Increasing rain chances will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops offshore. High pressure wedging in from the north will remain through the period. Assuming the overnight hours turn cloudy enough the area should not see quite the gradient in temperatures as today's highs and most areas should dip into the low to mid 40s. Rain chances spread NW to SE across the area on Sunday as some very weak isentropic upglide gives way to PVA and height falls ahead of a very sheared out trough. A cold front dropping southward out of central Canada will approach the southeastern US quickly on Sunday evening.
1225 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will extend east into the mid-Atlantic tonight.
an upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to develop over the Southwest U.
338 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
A cold front approaches from the north and slowly slides across the area. Otherwise, moisture appears too limited to see any precipitation with the passing cold front. After the cold front moves through temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
303 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Upper level ridging will continue to hold over the Florida Peninsula today, with broad subsidence favoring near record warm temperatures.
Light winds will become more southerly as the aforementioned high pressure moves eastward.
It's been more than a month since an upper ridge was not located off the coast but the ridge will be gone Sunday.
1209 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the Rockies and a broad trough across eastern Canada. A cold front will drop southward across the area this evening. Sunday night will be cold with high pressure overhead initially.
Overnight lows will drop to the lower 30s in the northwest to the lower to mid 40s in the Pine Belt. Lows will be near climo SE of the Natchez Trace in the low- mid 40s while below in the NW into the mid-upper 30s. Sunday: As the base of that lagging trough axis swings in Sun, rain shield will gradually shift E-SE & dry air/subsidence will move in the wake. With NE winds/CAA, low stratus & another cool thermal trough, another challenging thermo gradient & temp fcst is expected. temps will drop to below freezing for the NWrn half of the CWA.
A cold front will drop southward across the area this evening. Sunday night will be cold with high pressure overhead initially.
Locations near large bodies of water will stand a better chance of remaining above freezing.
1121 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Summary: A cold front will be dropping south this evening with the chance of a few flurries across northern MN.
1002 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Extensive cloud cover is persisting across west central Texas this afternoon as mid-level Pacific moisture streams across the southern Plains ahead of an upper-trough. Clearing conditions and resulting light winds will help temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 20s tonight. Tomorrow, high pressure will be the dominant feature for the region.
215 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 An upper level trough will bring rain to most locations today. High pressure will then result in dry weather and moderating temperatures through much of the week. At the surface, high pressure is centered over Norfolk, while an upper level trough axis extends from Hudson Bay south across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the Four Corners region. As the upper trough shifts east, so too will the area of rain. Skies should clear out everywhere overnight, and a light northerly wind will also help to bring in some cooler air.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 33 59 36 63 / 80 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 57 34 61 / 80 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 31 57 34 62 / 70 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 28 54 30 57 / 50 0 0 0 0.
340 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 A weak area of low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast today spreading precipitation back into the area, including possible very high elevation snow.
1236 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 High pressure will move south of the region tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will then cross the region Sunday night.
233 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Today, a positively tilted small upper trough will drop southeast through the Lower Ohio Valley. Sunshine will continue expanding over the CWA from the northwest as high pressure advances into the area. Louisville will get slightly warmer.
Winter weather threat is minimal with temps well above freezing in the precip area and deeper moisture quickly pushing east. Given the wet ground seems like freezing fog could be an issue as indicated by some hi-res models. Will mention patchy freezing fog for now over much of the area.
631 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania this evening.
628 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Aviation - Only light snow chances this week with fast moving clippers The northern stream dominates the next few days with fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada. A low moves across southern Canada today with trailing cold front extending through the Great Lakes.
Weak ridging aloft over Montana will be flattened as a disturbance moves eastward through southern Canada today. At the surface, a closed low pressure system in southern Alberta will remain nearly stationary before ejecting eastward overnight.
Gusty south winds should ease a bit after midday, though some isolated gusts to around 35 mph will be possible this afternoon over some of the ridges of Del Norte and Humboldt.
For Sunday night and Monday broad high pressure will spread over the area and the mid level pattern will give may to modest ridging building in from the west.
543 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this morning as a cold front moves across the area. Light rain is falling mainly north of the I-20 corridor this morning, as a short wave and associated cold front move across the area.
352 AM MST Sun Feb 27 2022 Dry conditons will persist as high pressure builds over the region through the middle of the week resulting in a strong warming trend.
859 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania this evening.
Temperatures at the surface are well above freezing.
Based on the NBM and HREF probabilistic output, freezing temperatures (for at least 2 hours) are expected, at least over much of the northern sections of the CWA. Dry and warmer Monday.
553 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 H5 analysis tonight had an elongated area of high pressure extending from the northern Caribbean, west into the southern Gulf of Mexico. West of this feature, ridging extended from Nevada north into the Idaho panhandle. High pressure was the dominant surface feature across the central CONUS tonight with this feature extending from the central Rockies, east into the Ohio Valley. Ridging, currently off to the west of the forecast area, will build east today into the central Rockies and high plains. Very dry boundary layer air will remain in place today with surface dew points this afternoon in the lower to middle teens.
623 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Quiet conditions persist throughout the region early this morning as we enter into a prolonged warmer and drier pattern.
359 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Quiet conditions persist throughout the region early this morning as we enter into a prolonged warmer and drier pattern.
So while there will still be a distinct temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the CWA, forecast MaxTs have gradually crept warmer over the last forecast runs.
642 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 High pressure extending over the region today will get pushed south as a weak, dry cold front moves across the area tonight. Temperatures will be near normal to start the week, but the return of southerly flow will bring warmer readings into midweek. Weak cold front will push south across the area tonight. Weak high pressure will build in behind it for Monday. Period begins with an H5 trough sitting across the northeastern CONUS, providing northwesterly flow aloft across the Ohio Valley.
A weak upper level trough will move through the region today bringing light snow showers. Best chances for snow will be mainly north of a Burns- Ontario-Stanley line today with little to no snow accumulations in the lower valleys. The precipitation will end by mid afternoon as the upper ridge rebuilds northward for Monday. This is in response to the a deepening low pressure system of the Pacific Northwest coast. Today will be the last day with temperatures below normal as warm moisture air follows the weak trough passage. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s in the lower valleys on Monday.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough extends from near the Great Lakes region southwestward to West Texas and New Mexico. This upper trough will move east of the region with another weaker upper trough approaching from the northwest on Monday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 20s to the lower 40s across parts of the Rio Grande.
Next challenge was whether to extend any part of the highlight. However, with areas struggling to meet criteria, do not have the confidence to extend the highlights. Still expect some patchy blowing snow this morning in the highlight areas, as temps did not get as warm as predicted yesterday, so snow may not be crusted over. Forecast area will be dry today as upper ridging moves east, and zonal flow moves over the region. Ridging rebuilds over the area tonight and Monday, and atmospheric river supported some low PoPs in the mountains.
420 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 High pressure extending over the region today will get pushed south as a weak, dry cold front moves across the area tonight. Temperatures will be near normal to start the week, but the return of southerly flow will bring warmer readings into midweek. Weak cold front will push south across the area tonight. Weak high pressure will build in behind it for Monday. Period begins with an H5 trough sitting across the northeastern CONUS, providing northwesterly flow aloft across the Ohio Valley.
635 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 An upper level trough will bring rain to most locations today. High pressure will then result in dry weather and moderating temperatures through much of the week. At the surface, high pressure is centered over Norfolk, while an upper level trough axis extends from Hudson Bay south across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the Four Corners region. As the upper trough shifts east, so too will the area of rain. Skies should clear out everywhere overnight, and a light northerly wind will also help to bring in some cooler air. Another area of high pressure will settle across the Great Lakes on Monday, allowing for northerly flow to continue.
Today, a positively tilted small upper trough will drop southeast through the Lower Ohio Valley. Sunshine will continue expanding over the CWA from the northwest as high pressure advances into the area. Louisville will get slightly warmer.
Any accumulations are likely to stay in the higher elevations. Most areas will rise above freezing today, with the western valleys and the Upper Green River Basin remaining below freezing.
MSAS sfc analysis places nern WY/wrn SD between troughing in the lee of the nrn Rockies and general sfc ridging to our south and east. Temps are around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at the same time, with general SW flow over the plains and drainage flow closer to the Black Hills. Poor diurnal timing and lack of appreciable pressure rises in the wake of this low will limit sensible impacts, but may see some stronger winds/gusts mixed to the sfc Monday AM into the early aftn across mainly nwrn SD as a result.
404 AM MST Sun Feb 27 2022 Quiet weather in store today with an upper level ridge moving into Colorado and dry subident flow becomes dominant. Overnight into Monday, a weak upper level trough moves through the region. Westerly flow increases over the higher elevations leading to gusty conditions. Model cross sections do not indicate potential for a strong mountain wave event; however, the higher mountains/foothills could see gusts up to 55 mph late Sunday to early Monday. There is a very weak upper trof embedded in the northwest flow which will move across Colorado Monday morning with drying and increased subsidence during the day. West to Northwest winds will be decreasing Monday morning behind the trof with mid/high level clouds will also be decreasing by afternoon. Despite the trof passage, temperatures will continue to warm slightly by Monday afternoon.
The latest subjective surface map and metars showed brisk southwest flow and temperaturesin the 20s as an area of low pressure was moving through the Great Lakes. A trough/windshift was passing through Wisconsin and and Minnesota and an approaching cold front over the U. Generally quiet weather with seasonable or warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the work week.
/Today through Monday/ A roughly west-east oriented upper trough axis is currently located in Kansas and Missouri and will gradually move southeast through the region today and into Monday. The trough will finally move south of the forecast area Monday morning. This will allow temperatures to radiate down nicely, and the entire forecast area should fall below freezing.