Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Downslope flow and lee troughing will bring slightly warmer temperatures. Lee troughing combined with an increase in mid level flow and considerable sunshine will aid mixing and bring breezy conditions to the forecast area. Stronger gusts over 50 mph can be expected over the higher mountains, starting as early as tonight.
800 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Aviation - Mild conditions for Wednesday - Weakening cold front moves in for Wednesday night - Storm storm possible for the weekend. Much of the area stands a decent chance to reach 50 degrees as the 925 mb thermal ridge of 9 deg C moves in.
Warmer temperature are then expected, followed by more rain to close the week. That trough is timed for an early Wednesday passage across the region, but in the meantime, sufficient dynamics combined with a fairly deep moisture supple will result in areas of rain developing on its van with better chances focused from Pittsburgh south and east where mid level frontogenesis will be briefly enhanced under positive vorticity advection. Cold advection in the wake of the departing system will likely support a change to snow over the higher elevation, but accumulation potential is not good given thermal profiles, warm ground, and again, system progression. Residual showers will end on Wednesday morning as the aforementioned trough digs eastward.
Breezy and unseasonably warm weather will prevail Wednesday as low pressure strengthens across Nebraska.
A dry cold front is moving through South Central Texas this afternoon. However, this air isn't any cooler with temperatures climbing into the 80s and even lower 90s along the Rio Grande. Skies should remain mostly clear overnight and along with the light winds and drier air temperatures will be cooler. Lows Wednesday morning will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Wednesday the winds will turn back around to the southeast and Wednesday will be a bit warming than today with most of the CWA outside the Hill Country having highs in the lower 90s.
Aloft a low amplitude, broad midlevel trough is currently moving across central Arkansas accompanied by a 70kt midlevel jet and an approaching 140kt upper level jet streak.
800 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Mid and upper level ridging centered over northern Mexico sprawls across the southern tier of states through much of Wed. Then a short wave trough tracking from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U. coast nudges the ridging southward and allows a weak and dry frontal boundary to drift into the state late Wed that dissipates Thu. While available moisture is on the low side it will be adequate along with the light flow to support some late night patchy fog.
Will let the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains expire as winds have decreased below warning criteria. /issued 203 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020/ An upper trough was centered off the WA coast this morning as a flat upper ridge over Mexico extended up across the region. This trough will come ashore the West Coast Tuesday and slowly move inland.
912 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A cold front is moving through the Mid-South this evening as the upper-level trough moves east into the Upper OH Valley.
Fast moving low pressure system will bring more showers and some convection to the region tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 70 48 73 59 / 100 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 45 72 59 / 100 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 65 45 72 59 / 100 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 64 41 69 52 / 100 40 0 0 0 NC.
The cold front is swinging through the Cumberland Plateau and any thunderstorms have exited Middle Tennessee. The cold front is making its way through middle TN. The warm front has not been able to reach I-40 as previously expected and is sticking closer to the TN/AL state line. The cold front is progged to move across eastern Middle TN from now until 03Z.
630 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Smattering of pcpn currently over central MN associated with a sfc warm front, taking a northeast track through the rest of the afternoon/into the evening. While the bulk of the upper level energy and deeper saturation will hold there, the trough will slide a sfc front into the area. The EC has been pretty consistent with taking an upper level trough out of the desert southwest Thu night, driving it northeast to across the Great Lakes by 00z Sun. Deformation region strengthens as the system approaches the region with 850 mb moisture transport feeding into and around the low.
Cool and unsettled conditions continue across the region through the Wednesday as a low pressure trough along the west coast moves inland. Upper level trough with low centered along the WA coast today will continue to gradually shift inland over the next couple of days as disturbances eject out to the NE across the northern Rockies and MT in WSW flow aloft ahead of the weakening trough. Precipitation over SW MT will decrease Wednesday morning before another disturbance associated with the main trough axis brings an increase in snow showers again Wednesday afternoon and evening.
700 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Broken line of precipitation associated with an advancing cold front continues to move through southern Arkansas at this time.
As is often the case during these instances, there is a surge of warmer temperatures initially. Cando has jumped to 54F, Rugby is 52F, and Carrington is 54F! This rise in temperatures will likely continue to occur as these west-northwest winds move east this evening, but it is unlikely to see temperatures in the low 50s elsewhere. Overnight a cold front will push across the area and bring temps down into the 20s by Wednesday morning.
The tail end of a couple of weather systems will bring gusty afternoon and early evening winds, cooler temperatures and a chance of showers.
A lot of what plays out for each location in the end is the temperatures in the lowest few hundred feet. A Wessington Springs to Marshall Minnesota line and north have the highest probability of cold enough temperatures near the surface to support the mix or snow.
Instability is on the weaker side for most of the mid state so far with the warm front just getting into southern middle TN early this afternoon. The warm front is speeding northward a bit faster than it was this morning, so additional WAA and moisture will move into the area, and allow for more instability for these developing thunderstorms. Main focus remains south of I-40 where the warm front will eliminate the low level inversion and allow for additional instability/low level shear as well.
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Based on observed trends and model consensus for strong pressure rises and cold air advection to continue across northern North Dakota, have increased winds toward the higher end of guidance through the evening. The cold front pushes through the forecast area this evening with a west to southwest upper flow over the forecast area. Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler with highs only climbing into the 30s.
Partial clearing tonight will allow fog to develop over most of the region with ample low level moisture available and light winds as the weak high pressure will settle over area in the morning.
Post-sunrise tomorrow, ceilings will quickly rise while clouds scatter out with the approach/passage of a weak sfc trof and development of a slightly drier airmass. An area of high pressure remains stretched from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast resulting in a humid and warm south to southwest flow locally. Aloft an upper ridge is nudging into the area from Mexico and the western gulf while an upper disturbance is traversing the mid Mississippi Valley. A few isolated showers will be possible through the afternoon and tonight from interior east Texas across CenLA as the weak front draws closer and upper disturbance passes to the north, however the front's forward progress will grind to a halt as it encounters the ridge.
Fast moving low pressure system will bring more showers and some convection to the region tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 70 48 73 59 / 90 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 65 45 72 59 / 100 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 65 45 72 59 / 100 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 64 41 69 52 / 90 40 0 0 0 NC.
1015 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Quiet weather returns tonight into Wednesday as low pressure passes south of southern New England.
Have also added patchy fog into the forecast across much of Carbon County and east across the Pine Ridge as humidity increases and showers begin just ahead of the front. Otherwise, another mild day with patchy rain and snow showers across the lower elevations of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle.
Surface cold front progged to drop into central MN Wednesday afternoon. Currently have 1-2 inches from southwest into central MN with the higher totals where the transition occurs first over the southwest.
A warm front has lifted north of KHSV and KMSL to near K4A6 at 18Z. The warm front will likely lift north of our TN counties if this occurs. The cold front will shift south on Wednesday with low clouds lingering through midday before stronger heating lifts/dissipates them.
703 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: SHRA/TSRA activity associated with a weak cold front mainly north of the I-20 corridor should diminish and exit the area later this evening. Due to that, will have to watch any storms that can develop along the cold front & progress southeast. With a deepening mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche, expect another warm afternoon. With continued warm thermal profiles in the wake of the front, highs will remain above normal, with some 10-15+ degrees, into the low- mid 70s north of Interstate 20 to mid 80s to the south.
/issued 203 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020/ An upper trough was centered off the WA coast this morning as a flat upper ridge over Mexico extended up across the region. This trough will come ashore the West Coast Tuesday and slowly move inland.
By 15Z Wednesday, a cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills and advance south during the day. Highs were raised a few degrees with the cold front a few hours hours slower.
818 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure will pass south of the region tonight into Wednesday with its associated precipitation moving through our area.
521 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Water vapor shows short wave racing across southern Canada, with surface analysis showing associated cold front diving through western SD. Main upper trof is located along the west coast with notable jet streak near SLC. Very dry and windy conditions across much of the cwfa early this afternoon, with lowest relative humidity across far southwest SD ahead of the cold front. Cold front will continue diving south tonight, stalling out over southeast WY.
The cold front has moved through the Nashville Metro area and will continue eastward. The cold front is making its way through middle TN. The warm front has not been able to reach I-40 as previously expected and is sticking closer to the TN/AL state line. The cold front is progged to move across eastern Middle TN from now until 03Z.
Downslope winds will continue through tomorrow bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions to western Kansas.
High pressure ridging south of the local waters as a weak front moves into the southeast U.
Under the influence of high pressure resulting in light winds and allowing for favorable radiational cooling, dense fog development will be a concern. Partial clearing tonight will allow fog to develop over most of the region with ample low level moisture available and light winds as the weak high pressure will settle over area in the morning.
Based on observed trends and model consensus for strong pressure rises and cold air advection to continue across northern North Dakota, have increased winds toward the higher end of guidance through the evening. The cold front pushes through the forecast area this evening with a west to southwest upper flow over the forecast area. Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler with highs only climbing into the 30s.
TFJ A trough will swing through the region through mid-week. Beyond Wednesday, the remainder of the week will be mostly dry as the primary forcing associated with an upper low will remain south of the area.
802 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region overnight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms through the night. A warm front just south of the forecast area will continue to slowly push northwards as the wedge erodes. There will continue to be a marginal chance of seeing stronger or severe thunderstorms as the warm front lifts north, and then in advance of the main cold front tonight, with the most likely timing of severe weather in the 04Z to 09Z time frame. Models indicate LI values of -1 to -2 south of the warm front in the warm sector, along with SB CAPE of 300 J/kg. An upper level trough exits The Midlands and CSRA Wednesday morning.
These showers are generally light, but could result in minor snow in the highest elevations of the Uinta, ELkhead and Park ranges. As a trough deepens over the western CONUS the southwesterly winds will increase and stay that way for several days. Tomorrow the western trough gradually moves to the southeast pushing moisture back into northern portions of the area, which will support showers through out the day.
Once the ridge axis shifts into the Ohio River Valley, increasing southerly winds on its back side will lead to a gradual clearing trend from southeast to northwest across the area from late morning into the afternoon. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, accompanied by more clouds and perhaps a few showers. An active pattern will unfold in the extended as several waves of low pressure track along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across south-central Illinois.
Ridging overhead allows for sunshine across the area after a little bit of patchy morning fog, but vorticity nearby also keeps at least scattered clouds overhead as well. Clouds thicken up after sunset as a low pressure system tied to the front left quadrant of the upper jet passes by to the northwest and pushes its cold front through.
1055 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Water vapor shows short wave racing across southern Canada, with surface analysis showing associated cold front diving through western SD. Main upper trof is located along the west coast with notable jet streak near SLC. Very dry and windy conditions across much of the cwfa early this afternoon, with lowest relative humidity across far southwest SD ahead of the cold front. Cold front will continue diving south tonight, stalling out over southeast WY. Thermal profiles a tad cooler and may support a bit more snow accumulation across the Black Hills and even plains.
We think that Austin sites are okay as of this writing with the low level deck staying to the south. A dry cold front is moving through South Central Texas this afternoon. However, this air isn't any cooler with temperatures climbing into the 80s and even lower 90s along the Rio Grande. Skies should remain mostly clear overnight and along with the light winds and drier air temperatures will be cooler.
Low level thermal ridge with 850mb temperatures above 20 degrees C along with a little extra downslope help will push highs today into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the area.
A few showers or areas of drizzle may persist through daybreak from southwest Virginia down into the higher terrain of far northeast Tennessee, but that will be the exception to the rule. The lower elevations in the TN valley will likely begin to see some cloud breaks as early as daybreak thanks to downslope flow off the plateau.
320 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Weak low pressure will bring light rain late today into tonight and again on Thursday night.
High pressure will settle over the area today and tonight and bring dry and warmer weather to central Indiana.
High pressure will build into the area for the weekend.
336 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Lingering showers will gradually come to an end today as high pressure builds over the area.
Upper ridging will settle over the central GOMEX tomorrow and will place the region under southwesterly flow aloft as an upper trough digs southward across the West Coast. A surface lee trough will develop ahead of the upper low and should provide the region with breezy conditions.
Tonight Through Thursday Night Latest subjective surface analysis indicates a warm front from from near Stuttgart, to near Clinton. Weak to moderate instability has developed to the south of the warm front. A mid level ridge will build through the mid south during the rest of this period.
151 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region overnight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms through the night. A warm front just south of the forecast area will continue to slowly push northwards as the wedge erodes. There will continue to be a marginal chance of seeing stronger or severe thunderstorms as the warm front lifts north, and then in advance of the main cold front tonight, with the most likely timing of severe weather in the 04Z to 09Z time frame. Models indicate LI values of -1 to -2 south of the warm front in the warm sector, along with SB CAPE of 300 J/kg. An upper level trough exits The Midlands and CSRA Wednesday morning.
Area remains under west to southwest flow aloft with periods of high clouds, and dry in the lower levels with surface flow mostly from the west to southwest.
These clouds will decrease this afternoon as high pressure shifts quickly east and cold air advection shuts off. Northern portions, where the cool airmass is somewhat deeper, will see cooler maximums in the 70s today where southern portions will similar highs to yesterday in the mid 80s.
352 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Residual high pressure will be the driving influence for much of today. The combination of decreasing clouds and influx of warmer air will help bring temperatures during the afternoon up into the 50s for much of the area. Will maintain the low PoPs for light precipitation potential moving through southeast Michigan between 5 am and 10 am as the frontal boundary progresses through Michigan. Baroclinic zone becomes organized south of the Michigan border late Thursday while the upper jet on the amplified ridge becomes established overhead. Minor wave and weak low pressure developing along the frontal boundary may bring the next opportunity for rain late Thursday.
Wednesday night will see the upper pattern become more zonal which will allow for a series of vort lobes, which break from a deepening trough over the western US, progress across the area for the end of the work week.
126 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Aviation - Mild conditions for Wednesday - Weakening cold front moves in for Wednesday night - Storm storm possible for the weekend. Much of the area stands a decent chance to reach 50 degrees as the 925 mb thermal ridge of 9 deg C moves in. - Weakening cold front moves in for Wednesday night A cold front weakens as it move in from the west northwest Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Models quickly push cold air advection southeast overnight and winds should pick up to between 5 and 10 mph as the actual cold front pushes into northern Alabama. Colder and drier air behind the front should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to mid 50s near Cullman county. The cold front will shift south on Wednesday with low clouds lingering through midday before stronger heating lifts/dissipates them. The ridge of high pressure starts moving off to the east, increasing southerly flow, and streaming moisture into the area. Expect increasing clouds, but the WAA will raise temperatures into the low- to-mid 80s.
Fog should dissipate fairly quick this morning with passing high clouds and warmer temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach northern sections of the forecast area Thursday but much of the area should remain on the warm side with strong thermal ridging and downslope flow sending afternoon highs into record territory in some spots with temps around 90 likely across eastern OK and perhaps into the Arkansas River valley.
Thursday looks dry and mild with low-amplitude upper ridging across most of the eastern CONUS, and low-level return flow developing.
Surface cold front progged to drop into central MN Wednesday afternoon. Currently have 1-2 inches from southwest into central MN with the higher totals where the transition occurs first over the southwest. Following the Wednesday system, we work some weak high pressure over the region for Thursday.
High pressure to start things out Thursday morning, but retreating to the east with a weak wave ejecting out of a western CONUS into the Northern Plains. Warmer temperatures follow for the rest of the period.
Otherwise, temperatures look cooler than average through Thursday.
High pressure will build in behind the system and bring dry weather for Thursday. A deepening storm will push off the NC coast today with an inverted trough pushing northward into NEPA. In the meantime, ridging developing north of the strengthening low noses southwest out of New England battling the precipitation trying to spread northward from the low. Ridging is also re-enforcing the cold air allowing for some mixing and maybe some light accumulations over the higher elevations of NEPA before daytime heating of the boundary layer results in all rain during the later morning and afternoon. System exits this evening allowing drier air to take hold under high pressure. A diffuse area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will keep our weather unsettled.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 48 73 59 82 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 45 72 59 80 / 20 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 45 72 59 79 / 20 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 41 69 52 77 / 40 0 0 0 10 NC.
By 15Z Wednesday, a cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills and advance south during the day. Highs were raised a few degrees with the cold front a few hours hours slower. Highs Thursday should range from the low to mid 40s far northeast to the low to the mid and upper 50s southwest.
(Today and tonight) As ridging builds in and 850mb flow turns westerly, today will see above normal temperatures and breezy winds.
Thursday, that cold front will stall across the southern CWA. This will cause quite a temperatures spread across the CWA with the southern CWA in the lower 70s and the northern CWA in the mid to upper 50s.
The cold front pushes through the forecast area this evening with a west to southwest upper flow over the forecast area. Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler with highs only climbing into the 30s.
331 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Warmer and dry in the short term. Clouds will diminish from west to east today, allowing temperatures to rise to highs ranging from the mid 60s east to the low 70s west.
That said, any wet snow accumulation will be nominal and relegated to the higher elevations. Forecast soundings do show this inversion eroding late tonight as low develops off the East Coast and high pressure pushes eastward. Good news is that models have trended much further south with this system, as the low track is forecast to exit the coast south of Delmarva and head due east out to sea. A diffuse area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will keep our weather unsettled.
241 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Low pressure will pass south of the state today, followed by brief high pressure for tonight and much of Thursday. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east, becoming stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend. Weak high pressure will build in tonight and linger Thursday, and temps will rise nicely. A cold front will drop down from the north/northwest late in the day and Thursday night. Mins tonight should stay above freezing in most places, depending mainly on how complete the clearing is. This will provide the pathway for front becomes the focus for several waves of low pressure.