Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Not much will change tonight as temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s. Slightly warmer weather is expected for Thursday with the possibility of a few more cloud breaks.
321 PM MST WED DEC 30 2015 AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CONTINENTAL U. WHEREAS HIGH COUNTRY MTN AND VALLEY LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGS COLDER DUE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. CWA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLDER AIRMASS AND N-NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH.
832 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 UPDATED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY. /ISSUED 533 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ LAYER OF IFR STRATUS JUST EAST OF CDS IS ALREADY FOUND SPREADING WEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT DENSE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. SAME IFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO PVW AND LBB AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SLOW RECOVERIES TO MVFR BY MIDDAY FOLLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ024>026- 030>032-036>038-042>044.
2016 BEGINS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL GA.
248 PM PST WED DEC 30 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE A DRY AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BY THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S AND THIS PORTENDS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR A DETERIORATION IN AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS AROUND PUGET SOUND. FOG SHOULD STEADILY BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LVL RIDGE. WITH SOME ELEVATED CU/AC/CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPILL SE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT AROUND THE SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE N AND E INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 429 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/ ANOTHER TYPICAL HOT SUNNY DAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE REGION.
High pressure crossing the middle and upper Ohio Valley will provide us with mostly clear skies and light winds Friday and Friday night.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AFTER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN OK HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 40 WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA. ALSO EXPECT BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFTING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO TOMORROW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE.
/ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/ EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS RELATIVELY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN TERMS OF THE HEIGHT OF THE 500 MB LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SUMMER GENERALLY SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES RESULT IN SINKING AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMER WE TEND TO GET.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A BIT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH REMANTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED BENEATH THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CONCERN FOR CONVECTION INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND; FIRST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MIGRATE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.
The upper level ridge will then continue to strengthen and establish itself over the area going into next workweek, with highs each day warming into the low to mid 90s. A few low end chances for showers/thunderstorms will exist as weak fronts and/or outflow boundaries attempt to impinge on the upper ridge, but for most it should remain hot and dry.
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY PROVIDING RATHER DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
/ISSUED 355 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXCEPT A COUPLE DEGS COOLER IN AREAS WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. THEN PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT TO MID TEEN PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN MONTANA MOVES EAST WITH 700MB WINDS EASING SOMEWHAT. RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVERTHE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
1254 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
1145 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO SUPPRESS OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MN BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER QUICK END TO THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 240 UTC IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE.
a fairly quiet night is expected across the fcst area despite the gradual northward lifting of a warm front now positioned across the Southern Plains. and have gone with a dry fcst through the night as the 850 ridge axis sharpens overhead. aforementioned warm front to continue lifting north through the area. with all signs pointing towards a very warm afternoon across western Missouri and eastern Kansas as low-level moisture pools ahead of cold front that should stall across southern Nebraska. which will be a few degrees cooler than the those experienced with last week/s heat event. there will be growing concerns for heavy rain/flash flooding as low-level moisture transport increases in response to the low-level jet.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AROUND 15- 20 KTS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND DRAGS A FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NORTH FL SAT. 3") AND WILL COMBINE WITH ENERGY FROM A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. LACK OF A SEA BREEZE FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AROUND -6C AT 500MB SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WX THREAT. CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL TROUGH.
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Upper level high pressure will strengthen as it centers over West Central Texas through tomorrow. The main theme remains the same with an upper level ridge strengthening over the region. Highs approaching 105 degrees aren't completely out of the question, especially for our warmer locations in the Concho Valley.
728 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE.
921 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE RAINFALL HAS ENDED AT TYS AND TRI BUT THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH WATER ON THE GROUND AND IN THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE FOR THERE NOT TO BE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
1257 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO TOMORROW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH OVERALL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LACKING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. NEAR THE LEE TROUGH WHERE STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. THE SUBTROPICAL MID-UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.
757 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PREDOMINANTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL HELP TO HINDER HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH A RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
839 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
940 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME UPPER ENERGY DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NATURE COAST REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG I70 AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH.
OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT FRI MORNING WITH SCT CU IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING.
DEW POINTS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN FAR EASTERN KS.
LOOKING FOR THIS LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH AND A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH NEAR NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.
A 594 DECAMETER UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A TROF/DRY LINE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN TROF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THOUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST.
WEAKNESSES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP THESE STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED BE MORE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES TO LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHWARD TO OPEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH.
WITH SOME ELEVATED CU/AC/CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPILL SE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT AROUND THE SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE N AND E INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY.
934 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR WARM, PLEASANT DAYS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE CLOUDS SE ON FRI COINCIDENT WITH LINGERING MID- UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE).
808 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT TO MID TEEN PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN MONTANA MOVES EAST WITH 700MB WINDS EASING SOMEWHAT. RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
THAT, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TROUGH IN NWRLY FLOW, HAS BEEN THE GENESIS REGION FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
943 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.
AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH RIDGING INTO WI. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN ON RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL THEN BE FOCUSING ATTENTION TO INCOMING COLD FRONT BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT.
625 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND OVER THE WEEKEND. /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/ EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS RELATIVELY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN TERMS OF THE HEIGHT OF THE 500 MB LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SUMMER GENERALLY SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES RESULT IN SINKING AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMER WE TEND TO GET.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE.
1022 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AND IN ERN BAKER COUNTY/OR ACROSS HELLS CANYON TO JUST NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE/ID. DRIER AIR IS NOW WORKING EWD ACROSS OREGON AS COASTAL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.
742 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
1135 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
1218 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 71 94 / 40 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 88 68 92 / 30 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 68 93 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 86 62 90 / 30 10 10 10.
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND PUSHES THE RIDGE A BIT TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
AS LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH OUR AREA SITUATED ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING TOWARDS KY.
716 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL TREND OUR AREA TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT PLACING US UNDER A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND.
1028 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TAF WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT WILL EXIST. THIS IS TAPPING MOISTURE FOLDING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN SPREADING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN VIA NW FLOW ALOFT. EMERGING SW GRADIENT WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST.
BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 500MB LOW/TROUGH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BRO RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT PROFILE SHOWS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 60 PERCENT RH VALUES BELOW 700MB.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 60 IN THE RAIN/THICKER CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND A BIT WARMER READINGS (ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE) FARTHER WEST.
The hottest weather will be early in the week, then cooler, near normal temperatures are expected from mid-week on. Northern California is located between upper level high pressure areas centered over the eastern Pacific and southern California with hot, dry weather continuing. Tuesday looks like another hot day, though some Delta Breeze influenced areas are expected to be a little cooler tonight and a little less hot through the day Tuesday.
THE AIRMASS IS EVEN MORE COOLER AND STABLE OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S. THIS AREA HAS HAD THE MOST HEATING TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. AS THE EVENING GOES ON LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL REFOCUS FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AREAS WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF. QG FIELDS SHOWING MODERATE QG ASCENT OVER THE NE CORNER OVERNIGHT BEFORE TROF SWEEPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER STILL ON TUESDAY BY A SIMILAR AMOUNT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST MOVES INLAND.
358 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP.
MEANWHILE, EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS.
204 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
154 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGH MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. 25 OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SC. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.