Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The inverted trough axis is finally starting to push into western MN, shifting winds to the northwest across eastern ND and the Red River Valley. The main upper low is wrapped up nicely over south central Nebraska, and will quickly progress northeastward this evening and overnight. Temps across portions of southeastern ND into western MN remain very mild for this time of year, with readings above freezing. At this point, it seems there will be some decent liquid rain moving along with a narrow band of freezing/rain behind it this evening. Winds will also quickly go down as high pressure builds into the region.
The high wind warning and blowing dust warning should both be eligible for expiration by 9 pm if not sooner, especially the blowing dust warning.
The National Weather Service in Goodland measured sustained winds at 58 mph gusting to 81 mph with the onset of rapid pressure rises on the western periphery of the upper level low /assoc sfc cyclone/. as the mid-latitude cyclone tracks rapidly northeast into IA/MN.
Winds will switch to the north behind the cold front late tonight at speeds around 10 knots. /Issued 308 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/ Upper level low near Hill City, KS will continue to race to the northeast away from the Panhandles. Winds will turn to the north and northeast overnight behind a cold front, but they will remain in the 10 to 15 mph range.
Will keep the high wind warning and red flag warning going due to the winds still being close to criteria, and fires still ongoing. The National Weather Service in Goodland measured sustained winds at 58 mph gusting to 81 mph with the onset of rapid pressure rises on the western periphery of the upper level low /assoc sfc cyclone/. as the mid-latitude cyclone tracks rapidly northeast into IA/MN.
458 PM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The vigorous upper level trough that passed overhead last night is over the Central Plains now. In the wake of that system, we have moderately strong westerly flow and lingering moisture flowing upslope and producing scattered to numerous snow showers over the higher terrain of western Colorado this afternoon. Quick on the heels of our departing system is a weak ripple over northern UT and another upper level trough currently coming onshore over the Pac NW.
838 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure will maintain control over the Mid Atlantic, bringing dry conditions through Thursday.
JKL Snow will exit to the east this afternoon with weak ridging building in for Thursday. Another strong cold front arrives Thursday night with min temperatures in Wheatland, Golden Valley, and Musselshell dropping to near or below zero.
932 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure is anchored just off the New England coast and extends down the entire Atlantic seaboard. The Keys are situated at the base of the ridge, and are currently experiencing moderate to fresh mainly easterly breezes across all coastal waters.
720 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure gradually shifts offshore during the next few days resulting in the development of a warm and moist southerly flow.
237 PM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 Expect a seasonable day on Thursday over the region, as another strong Canadian cold front gets ready to move southward through the region Thursday night.
Cold front approaching from the NW tomorrow may result in some SHRA for GLH/GWO. Tonight through Thursday: Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail tonight into Thursday across the area. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the east to low 60s in the west. Expect most of the area to remain dry though, as surface ridging continues to prevail.
721 PM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The High Wind Warning and the Red Flag Warning have been cancelled. The National Weather Service in Goodland measured sustained winds at 58 mph gusting to 81 mph with the onset of rapid pressure rises on the western periphery of the upper level low /assoc sfc cyclone/. as the mid-latitude cyclone tracks rapidly northeast into IA/MN.
Changes setting up over the next 24 to 48 hours as weak upper ridging and SFC/LL high pressure slowly break down. This will allow a cold front to move down across our northwest corner late Thursday afternoon.
350 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 Rain chances will increase over the next several days as a cold front moves into the Mid-South. The front will become stalled out before it lifts back to the north as a warm front.
/issued 350 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/ Rain chances will increase over the next several days as a cold front moves into the Mid-South. The front will become stalled out before it lifts back to the north as a warm front.
800 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Kind of looked like a summer afternoon/evening across the region with scattered convection moving quickly westward in the low level easterly flow. This pattern will continue through Thursday with the low level easterly flow bringing more scattered to occasionally broken clouds west along with a few quick moving showers. /issued 221 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021/ Strong mid level ridging extends northeastward from the western Gulf of Mexico along the eastern seaboard. This ridging shifts eastward and flattens out through the week and into the weekend. The surface reflection is a 1038 MB high pressure center off the New England coast and broad surface ridging extending southwest along the east coast and into the Gulf of Mexico.
308 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 Upper level low near Hill City, KS will continue to race to the northeast away from the Panhandles. Winds will turn to the north and northeast overnight behind a cold front, but they will remain in the 10 to 15 mph range.
High pressure with a mid-level ridge across the region. The ridge of high pressure will shift east into the western Atlantic for the end of the week with winds becoming a little more southeasterly. High temperatures will continue to be warm in the low to mid 80s across the area.
A cold front will drop south into the region tonight, making it to near the OH River by around noon on Thursday. Many locations, except for possibly our extreme southern counties, should see a break in the precip Thu night, as the cold front moves farther south into TN and becomes nearly stationary in the swly flow aloft. However, the break will be temporary, as the front begins to retreat back northward as a warm front into the OH River Valley Friday and Friday night. Precip amounts will likely ramp up with this round, especially later Friday and overnight Friday night, as a mid level trof pushes southeastward into the Midwest and Plains states. 5-3 Standard Deviations above climo norms Friday night as a wave of low pressure forms in srn MO and lifts northeast along the Ohio River.
100 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 High pressure gradually shifts offshore during the next few days resulting in the development of a warm and moist southerly flow.
1105 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 (This evening through Thursday) A very deep surface cyclone was centered over Nebraska this afternoon, with a dry line extending south across Kansas to near the 100th Meridian. The cyclone will advance quickly to the northeast this evening, and the dry line will move about halfway across our forecast area (roughly along I-44) before the cold front arrives Thursday morning, and shoves the very warm and moist airmass farther to the south, finally exiting our forecast area Thursday afternoon (but it returns shortly afterward). A strong capping inversion this afternoon is forecast to dissipate this evening, allowing convection to occur along the dry line and cold front as they move into the eastern half of Oklahoma.
Otherwise forecast is in good shape with decreasing winds and eventually the cold front moving through. (This evening through Thursday) A very deep surface cyclone was centered over Nebraska this afternoon, with a dry line extending south across Kansas to near the 100th Meridian. The cyclone will advance quickly to the northeast this evening, and the dry line will move about halfway across our forecast area (roughly along I-44) before the cold front arrives Thursday morning, and shoves the very warm and moist airmass farther to the south, finally exiting our forecast area Thursday afternoon (but it returns shortly afterward). A strong capping inversion this afternoon is forecast to dissipate this evening, allowing convection to occur along the dry line and cold front as they move into the eastern half of Oklahoma.
(The rest of tonight) Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing at mid evening along and northwest of Interstate 44 ahead of a cold front positioned near Osage co in northeast Oklahoma. Overall severe potentials will remain possible through the late evening hours and should weaken overnight as the cold front continues its southeastward push into the CWA. mostly cloudy conditions were common with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s and temps in the low 70s. showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to spread across the CWA with the movement of the cold front. forecast lows in the lower 40s near the Kansas border to lower 50s in east central Oklahoma are possible. have adjusted pop/wx/temp/dewpoint grids to account for latest timing/movement of the cold front and added minor tweaks to hourly wind/sky grids based on latest trends/obs.
Prior discussion below: Tonight through Thursday: Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail tonight into Thursday across the area. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the east to low 60s in the west. Expect most of the area to remain dry though, as surface ridging continues to prevail.
Tomorrow will see a small bump up in temperatures but will remain seasonal compared to the highs we saw earlier this week.
Cloud cover ahead of the next cold front, which is over the central CONUS at this hour, will increase this evening resulting in a mostly cloudy sky at daybreak. Deep layer west-southwest flow will persist on Thursday as an upper ridge remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico. Again, could go higher if the lower clouds are able to break up a bit. Scattered showers will begin to develop and gradually increase in overage late Friday evening into Friday night as a pre-frontal trough axis shifts ESE across the area.
With high pressure nosing off the Rockies, winds are light and westerly. By Friday, the trough moves off the Front Range as a cold front, aided eastward by an upper trough that passes north of the CWA.
Storm totals of 4-8 inches are still expected in the mountains above 5000 feet, with 1-2 inches still possible in the lower valleys before snow tapers off Thursday morning. Upper level trough moving onshore this afternoon will bring widespread snow across the area this evening. Scattered snow showers ahead of the approaching trough will continue across Southwest Idaho this afternoon bringing a dusting to quarter of an inch of snow. Increasing southeasterly winds could delay the onset of precipitation an hour or two in the lower valleys but expect the main snow event to begin around 6 PM MST. However, Fog and stratus could develop in the lower valleys limiting radiative cooling and thus keeping temperatures closer to normal. Building ridge on Friday will further strengthen the inversion and keep any fog and/stratus locked in.
W/SW winds will shift to the NW/N as a weak cold front moves into the region, expected around 09Z-10Z at CNM/HOB, 11Z at MAF/INK, and between 14Z-16Z at PEQ/FST. (This afternoon through Thursday night) A potent 50-55 kt 700 hpa jet assocd with a deep mid lvl cyclone over the Central Plains is raking northwest portions of our CWA this afternoon. Abundant mid-high clouds have delayed the onset of strong winds at GDP by a few hrs and kept our temperatures cooler overall. A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight, however high clouds and late arrival of dry air promote above normal lows across central and eastern portions of the CWA.
Temperatures are already dropping across the high terrain with the temperature at 16F in Bellemont, 18F at the Flagstaff Airport, and stations up the on Kaibab Plateau reporting 8-9F. With dew points expected to drop into the single digins overnight with clearing skies along and north of the high terrain, expect temperatures to really bottom out overnight. The potent storm system and cold front have passed well east of the state this afternoon, with below normal afternoon temperatures in its wake. Thursday - the next weakening trough passes through the region with precipitation staying north of Arizona. It will be 5-10 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon.
A strong cold front just moved through a North Platte through Bassett line. The High Wind Warning is scheduled to expire at 03Z. The upper low lifts into the northern Great Lakes by daybreak, as an upstream trough digs across the Pacific Northwest. The next upper trough and cold front passage will be Friday into Friday night.
Southerly winds will range between 3-10 knots overnight, with the higher winds across the Delta region. Prior discussion below: Tonight through Thursday: Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail tonight into Thursday across the area. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the east to low 60s in the west. Expect most of the area to remain dry though, as surface ridging continues to prevail.
354 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers this afternoon and evening.
252 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 Very gusty winds this morning will diminish later today, as will rain showers that are accompanying a cold front. Temperatures will also fall throughout the day and it will be below freezing tonight.
Additional thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night associated with a warm front. The trailing cold front was pushing through eastern Kansas, with showers and some storms out ahead of it in southern Missouri. As the storm system moves to the northeast across the plains and takes on a negative tilt, a cold front will approach the Ozarks tonight. Temperatures on Thursday will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today (though still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the day). Models remain consistent stalling the cold front across the northern half of Arkansas Thursday night, then moving back north as a warm front Friday into Friday night.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 56 70 59 68 / 0 20 10 40 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 54 70 58 68 / 10 30 20 30 90 Oak Ridge, TN 64 54 68 57 66 / 10 60 30 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 48 66 50 66 / 0 30 30 10 90.
Key Points: - Very strong winds continue into this evening - Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions also persist through this evening - Severe Storms quickly moving through the area this afternoon As of 20z this afternoon, the well-advertised mid-level trough is progressing northeast across eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and northwest Kansas. The strong synoptic winds coupled with the low RH will create a very dangerous fire weather situation once the dryline moves through. Will keep the High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning as is for now, valid until 9pm.
Today Through Friday Chaotic weather map across the country this afternoon with a well defined surface cyclone rotating its way northeast across portions of NW Kansas as of 20z. Visible satellite imagery shows dust being transported from portions of eastern Colorado, the panhandles and western Kansas toward the center of the low.
This will occur ahead of an approaching cold front as prevailing southerly winds average near 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts across our western terminals in east Texas as well as SHV and TXK. By late Thursday morning, the cold front will approach I-30 where it is expected to stall out through the remainder of period with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across much of our airspace. /issued 1014 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/ Increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front still well to our NW will contribute to slightly more lift overnight and in the development of scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. The best rain chances will remain across our NW zones in closer proximity of the cold front as it approaches the middle Red River Valley through the early morning hours.
Activity is aided by a flattening inverted trough that has stretched along the coast most of the day. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60s, near 70 along the Treasure Coast. KDAB has the highest potential for showers over the next several hours, so continuing TEMPO mentions with update.
Regarding weather over the past 7-9 hours: - WOW! We anticipated for days that we would have very strong/damaging gradient winds (associated with the parent low pressure system/intense mid-upper jets) and that fire weather could be a big issue (especially in/near our KS zones), and both of that came to fruition, as we had several, mainly unofficial wind gusts of anywhere from 60-90+ MPH that were NOT directly associated with thunderstorms. The high wind warning and blowing dust warning should both be eligible for expiration by 9 pm if not sooner, especially the blowing dust warning.
The more easterly component especially near the coast with the high dewpoint air will probably lead to more widespread marine dense sea fog Thursday night. Isolated showers may develop to the north of the I-10 corridor tomorrow with the approach of a surface cold front to our north, though coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to include anything beyond VCSH wording for now.
Temperatures are already dropping across the high terrain with the temperature at 16F in Bellemont, 18F at the Flagstaff Airport, and stations up the on Kaibab Plateau reporting 8-9F. With dew points expected to drop into the single digits overnight with clearing skies along and north of the high terrain, expect temperatures to really bottom out overnight. The potent storm system and cold front have passed well east of the state this afternoon, with below normal afternoon temperatures in its wake. Thursday - the next weakening trough passes through the region with precipitation staying north of Arizona. It will be 5-10 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon.
An elongated, zonal upper- level jet will remain overhead and a weak inverted trough will develop across southeast Kansas into central Missouri.
217 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Southwest flow aloft will continue today as long wave troughing encompasses much of the CONUS. A weak cold front was currently moving through the region shifting light winds to the north but primarily bringing in much drier surface air. Afternoon temperatures will be much cooler today because of the front but still above seasonal averages for mid-December.
The core of the low-level jet is overhead early this morning, and 50 to 70 knot winds are just a couple thousand feet above the surface.
1036 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure gradually shifts offshore during the next few days resulting in the development of a warm and moist southerly flow.
For the lower elevations, this system mainly looks to bring light snow only for areas west of the Divide. On Friday, a weak cold front pushes through, knocking temperatures back down to seasonal averages and switching winds to northerly and northwesterly east of the Divide.
Ridging aloft wedged into the region from the southeast and high pressure at the surface wedged into the region from the east, will overall maintain quiet weather across much of the CWA today and tonight. A strong storm system currently lifting northeast over the Great Lakes region this morning, will drag a cold front east towards the northwest corner of the CWA later today.
Breezy and much cooler conditions will be noted as temperatures fall into the 40s everywhere north of I-70. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching I-55, with a band of showers along and just ahead of the boundary. High pressure will build into Illinois tonight, resulting in clear skies and very light winds.
and Friday A deepening 977 mb low was situated just west of Lake Superior early this morning, with an associated cold front moving through the Upper Peninsula and northeast WI. The high winds will continue through early this morning, then gradually subside later today into this evening. The High Wind Warning will likely need to transition to a Wind Advisory after 15z.
(Today) Cold front currently located from east central OK into far NW AR with a focused corridor of persistent convection and scattered showers further south across the warm sector.
549 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 The cold front is currently just southeast of KUIN, passing through KJEF and KAIZ, and is just southeast of KJLN. The deep low pressure system driving this front is moving rapidly northeast into Canada, as is the short wave aloft. Another short wave over the Great Plains will push east today and give the cold front another shove through the rest of the forecast area into Arkansas. Carney The low level baroclinic zone will stall over Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois tonight north of the front.
Southwesterly flow aloft for the short term as the next longwave trough builds into the west. Cooler air expected today behind the recent front as highs dip to near normal.
An area of snow is expected along the midlevel trough axis, mainly through Friday afternoon. A cold front will also cross the area Friday, bringing NW winds at 15-25kt.
520 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers this afternoon and evening.
437 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 A cold front will move through today, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms along with it. The front will stall out somewhere just south of the I-40 corridor Friday morning, slowly lifting back up as a warm front by Friday night.
(Today and tonight) Low clouds developing and moving north into West Central Texas, ahead of a cold front moving south across the South Plains. Will generally go above guidance for temperatures this afternoon, although a little cooler across the Big Country behind the front than for the those areas farther south.
538 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 (Today and tonight) Low clouds developing and moving north into West Central Texas, ahead of a cold front moving south across the South Plains. Will generally go above guidance for temperatures this afternoon, although a little cooler across the Big Country behind the front than for the those areas farther south.
727 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 Mild conditions continue today, with widespread showers likely with the passage of a cold front.
A brief period of moderate to heavy snow is possible in the West Glacier and Polebridge areas as well.
537 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Winds will remain light today behind a cold front but will slowly veer to the southeast throughout the day. /issued 217 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021/ Southwest flow aloft will continue today as long wave troughing encompasses much of the CONUS. A weak cold front was currently moving through the region shifting light winds to the north but primarily bringing in much drier surface air. Afternoon temperatures will be much cooler today because of the front but still above seasonal averages for mid-December.
0"), and the E/SE flow with high pressure to our north will carry this drier air slowly west across central FL today. Max temps will be mainly in the low 80s today.
Looking upstream, an upper low currently located in the Pacific NW will zip southeasterly through the day, leading to increasing moisture aloft. Lows fall into the upper teens/lower 20s across the area, with the lowest temps expected across southwest Nebraska where clearer skies should persist longest. A stronger cold front will dive out of South Dakota by late evening, dragging much colder air into western and north central Nebraska. A few flurries can't be ruled out near the Pine Ridge with weak convergence noted near the Black Hills, but confidence in this is low.