Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The synoptic cold front lies across KS and will slowly move this direction given its nearly parallel orientation to the flow aloft. More storms will develop along the true cold front off to the north and west this afternoon, and these storms will affect the region tonight.
For today, the next cold front to affect our area is already ahead of schedule, having pushed thru nwrn zones. Where the cold front ends up later this afternoon will have a large influence on initial tstm development. Have followed suit and lowered pops across the board for today and tonight, with highest overall probabilities across far srn zones closest to expected position of cold frontal boundary, with lowest values across much of the Oklahoma Panhandle.
905 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast today. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will move across the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Saturday.
949 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will slide southeast of the region through Saturday.
Weak upper ridge will keep the area under sunny skies with mild temperatures and light winds today. The morning weather balloon from Boise showing 3-5 degrees of warming in the low levels over the last 24 hours.
Tomorrow looks to have a slightly better chance of thunderstorms with daytime heating and cold front working through. SE Michigan settles within the associated deepening mid level southwest flow immediately downstream today, as the upper ridge axis currently anchored overhead drifts east. Main theta-e plume pulls to the east with the exit of the attendant warm front by mid-late morning Saturday, with the trailing cold front then arriving during the afternoon. Background wind field carrying upwards of 35 knots of shear within the lowest 6 km would allow for greater convective organization should the environment prove sufficient in generating deeper convective updrafts.
Should then be somewhat of a lull in the action later this morning into early afternoon before diurnal heating and the approach of another weak disturbance rotating east into the area from the larger upper low circulation plodding east from the Dakotas into northern MN by afternoon. Anticipate a general increase in showers and a few thunderstorms as this occurs, so kept the higher chances going into the afternoon. Upper level low opens up and ejects eastward by Saturday, allowing high pressure to take hold. But with the upper low still nearby, the last energy rotating down on the back side combined with the lingering cold pool could result in some spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms over primarily northern WI.
High pressure center over the Carolinas is pushing an easterly flow into the forecast area.
Inverted trough axis is located roughly from just off the lower Texas coast to just inland the Louisiana coast according the latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis. Rua Looks like a decent chance for widespread shower activity and a few storms today into Saturday, as inverted trough axis continues to move to the west-northwest, providing deep southeast flow over the forecast area, and keeping tropical like moisture in place, with PWAT values progged to be over 2. With the high moisture content in place, some locally torrential downpours will be possible producing locally heavy rainfall.
A broad 500 hPa trough is at the present time over the Northern and Central Plains with a closed low over ND early this morning. The upper level trough will weaken in amplitude, with the low weakening into an open wave, as the trough moves into the MN Arrowhead region and far Upper Great Lakes in the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, a surface cold front extends from a low near the Red River Valley that currently stretches south near the SD-MN border into Eastern NE into western KS. Cooler and drier aloft will be in place over western and north central NE today as the front advances east with 850 hPa temperatures ranging around 14-18 C. Thereafter a transitory ridge shifts east across the plains as a trough digs into the Pac NW.
Current isolated showers are well accounted for by the low PoPs already in the forecast. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Stacked low pressure over North Dakota with rain and most of the clouds out of Montana this morning. Fairly weak high pressure will be over the state today for mild temperatures and generally light winds.
Aloft the upper low over the Northern Plains will drift East ending up in Western/Central MN by 00z. the main trough will not pass through the state until sometime late Friday night. At the surface the low will lift out of South Dakota into Northeast MN by 00z dragging a cold front through Western Iowa by 18Z.
Early this morning the trough and its closed low was easily discernible on the water vapor loop over the dakotas, with the center of the 500 mb low over western North Dakota. A vigorous vort max was associated with the low. Lower at the surface a broad low pressure area was across the eastern Dakotas into western MN with a warm front into southwest MN. Drier air will be advected into southern areas on west winds as the low moves northeast. High pressure was located over northwest Ontario at 1930Z with dry air, dewpoints in the lower to middle 50's, nosing into the Borderland to the north shore of Lake Superior. These showers were driven by a short wave trof lifting northeastward and upper level divergence from 250mb jet also lifting northeastward.
932 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Low pressure in the Gulf has resulted in quite a bit of convection well offshore, but also on the edge of the 60 mile marine zones. In association with this low, precipitable water is moving back towards and over 2 inches, so isolated to scattered showers and storms should still be expected today. /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016/ Precip coverage has been gradually increasing offshore in association with a surface trof situated off the Tx coast. Majority of rain/storms should taper off by early evening w/ the loss of heating - though there could be a couple lingering cells around for the start of some of the high school football games. Coastal trof should wash out on Saturday.
1036 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Currently - A weak ridge extends across South Florida, resulting in light easterly breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. A weak ridge will extend across South Florida over the next several days, resulting in light east to southeast flow.
High pressure will bring one more day of sunny skies and mild temperatures to the interior.
The upper low over North Dakota that brought the shower activity to eastern Montana yesterday will continue to drift east today taking the showers with it. High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today into Saturday.
Flow aloft becomes more zonal, but in that zonal flow will be an ejecting short wave trough that will exit the desert southwest. However, there should be enough dynamics from the trough to interact with low level moisture. Afterwards, upper level ridging will build over the region.
mainly in the low to middle 90s. Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel will be a bit cooler than the rest of the region as widespread cloud cover and at least scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected. A deep trough over the Western two thirds of the Nation will gradually shift East over the next couple of days resulting in slightly cooler temperatures across the Midsouth as well as better rain chances. dew points will be in the low to middle 70s with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s just ahead of an approaching cold front.
738 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast today. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will move across the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Saturday.
1125 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will hold through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
1040 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 The ridge is shifting to the east and low-level winds are coming around to the south across the region. Across the area, expect the best coverage will be along the higher terrain. For the update, temperatures were running a bit above the forecast and made some minor adjustments up to the highs. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 67 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 93 68 89 69 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 63 86 63 / 20 10 10 10.
Mid state remaining quiet so far tonight, however short term models indicate some showers may develop in the northwest this morning ahead of the main trough over the Great Plains.
Toward and during the afternoon hours, focus will shift to slow moving weak cold front that will move through western and northern Oklahoma.
More storms will develop this afternoon but the highest chances will be east of the TAF sites so have left TS out of the present wx groups at this time. /issued 239 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ West to southwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as upper level troughing remains across much of the northern and western half of the nation. In addition convective chances will be enhanced later today and tonight by a southward moving cold front that is forecast to move south and west from the Panhandles and stretch from the central Permian Basin to western New Mexico later tonight.
Temperatures are running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 30s in the mountains to the upper 40s to mid 50s in the valley. Precipitation will turn more showery later this morning and thru the afternoon as the upper trough moves overhead. Showers will to taper off from the north and west this evening, then dry weather is expected for Thursday with brief ridging over the area.
917 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure continues to settle over the region. Winds and waves will pick up again ahead of a low pressure system on Thursday, likely prompting another SCA from as early as Thursday morning, lasting into Thursday night. A esely flow will then prevail for the afternoon with high temps ranging from the middle 30s over the lake counties to the lower 40s over south central WI. Polar high pressure will track across the nrn Great Lakes into the lower Great lakes through tonight with the upper ridging over the High Plains reaching the MS River Valley.
temps are in the low to mid 40s. Cool Canadian high pressure (1040 mb) over Lake Winnipeg will be ushering in some decent CAA today. Srn transitory ridge will push thru and bringing substantial height rises.
1006 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A northwest flow remains aloft across the state this morning as a trough swings into the east coast and ridging builds over Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico. Highs today will generally be in the lower 80s, although a bit cooler at the coast with the onshore flow.
515 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Upper ridge axis shifts slightly eastward today but still remains over the area resulting in above normal temperatures. So kept cooler temperatures in eastern areas while northeast Colorado will warm well into the 60s.
Cold front will move south across the area this afternoon. with advisory going into effect this afternoon with increasing N to NE winds behind cold front.
1015 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A cold front will push slowly southward through the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north this afternoon through Thursday. Warmer conditions will arrive this weekend as the high shifts well off in the Atlantic. High pressure will build into central NC this afternoon and tonight in the wake of the exiting cold front. While skies will become increasingly sunny, the low level cold air advection will deter warming. Yet, the actual lows should dip to freezing for several hours regardless. Lows Thursday night will again flirt with freezing in the south and likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s again across the north. coast, with mid level ridging moving across the area from west to east.
Upper ridge was sliding east and this will allow downslope gradients to kick in for a warmer day eventually today. This will lift the low clouds and provide a warmer day today. A western trough will move into Utah/Arizona tonight and this will set up a period of upper divergent forcing over southern Montana and northern Wyoming.
639 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Dry air in the lower atmosphere appears to be conflicting with the ability to generate low clouds this morning, as solutions have been eagerly anticipating all night. /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/ It will be cooler today following yesterday's cold front, while low clouds remain fairly uncertain this morning. High temperatures may not be significantly impacted, but we have edged slightly towards the warmer guidance expecting sunshine most areas, especially by later today. Tonight, an upper level ridge axis will edge just east of the area, with backing flow aloft.
Challenge for today will be temps and slight chance for some warm air advection precip as return flow from departing high pressure commences across the forecast area.
Upper level ridging will slowly build eastward during the overnight hours, though northwesterly flow will persist and keep clouds streaming through the forecast area from impulses to our north. Despite the cloud cover, weak CAA will allow temps to fall into the low to mid 40s, which is right around normal for late March. The ridge will continue to build into the TN Valley during the day Thursday, as surface winds become southeasterly.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from the Red River Valley in Oklahoma, southeast through Southwest Arkansas, and Central Mississippi/Alabama. Highs today will be cooler in the 50s to around 60 degrees north of I-40, and 60s south with the warmest temperatures towards Central Mississippi. The cold front over Central/Southern Mississippi is expected to become nearly quasi- stationary and begin moving back northeast as a warm front on Thursday. Short term models at this time suggest a mainly rain free passage of the warm front and have left any mention of rain out of the forecast at this time.
Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma and will continue a slow progression south with drier air filtering in from the east.
Milder air will move in behind this warm front today.
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplifying ridge transiting into the Plains ahead of a large East Pacific trough that is starting to to make landfall over the West Coast. The West Coast trough will be a driving factor in the weather through the rest of the work week and weekend. the West Coast trough will keep warm air advection prevailing across the Southern and Central Plains through the next 24 hours. showers, or drizzle, that may have started before sunrise, will likely move north through the day as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of the West Coast trough that will be digging into the Four Corners region. With the warm front moving north of Missouri Thursday afternoon, focus for precipitation will go with it, leaving Thursday night dry.
KDRT will have the highest winds of all sites with sustained 15ktG25 at times this afternoon. Upper air analysis last evening showed a large amplitude ridge over the western half of the country with northwesterly flow across Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The high in the Gulf will keep the front from moving into our area. The upper pattern during this period will become more progressive with the ridge moving toward the east and a trough moving through the west and ending the period over the Four Corners region. The low level winds will remain from the south to southeast and we don't expect much change in the weather.
High pressure will keep the area dry Thursday morning. A warm front is expected to spread light rain to the coast and the Umpqua Basin Thursday afternoon.
This system will also bring gusty winds this afternoon and evening followed by much cooler temperatures Thursday. The large ridge axis is now east of our area, with an increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the deep trough near the west coast. Surface winds will get gusty this afternoon with windy conditions through much of the area as the gradient continues to tighten ahead of the approaching trough.
Cold front across south central Alabama will push south into the Fl Big Bend this afternoon and be south of the area tonight.
920 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move southeast across the region tonight.
1041 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will continue to build in today, while NW flow aloft continues.
The caveat is that there is quite a bit of dry air in the lower layers to contend with and the likelihood is that much of the precip will evaporate aloft producing virga. Tonight an upper ridge moves overhead so expecting mainly dry conditions tonight.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Warm front will move east across the forecast area today. Will maintain a slight chance of rain/freezing rain there this morning and go dry elsewhere. Much warmer air mass will move into the area today with highs from 50 NE to 65 SW. Upper ridge will move to the east today turning the flow aloft to the southwest. An upper trough will split today as it moves inland from the Pacific. Although the southern branch trough is expected to track well south of the forecast area, the SW flow ahead of it is expected to bring moisture tonight as far north as the southern zones of the forecast area. Will mention a slight chance or chance of rain as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing.
The cold front that brought yesterday's storms has moved south of our area and left us with gusty winds out of the north. Dewpoints near the TN/AL state line are around 50 degrees, while dewpoints near the TN/KY line are in the low 30s. They'll continue to drop today into the low 20s over the northeast portion of our CWA. Upper ridging should keep the Tennessee Valley dry and beautiful for the remainder of the work week.
Much cooler conditions will be felt areawide behind yesterday's cold front, accompanied by gusty easterly winds. Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma and will continue a slow progression south with drier air filtering in from the east.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be breezy and warmer conditions today, followed by a chance for light freezing rain late tonight south central. Currently, upper level ridge axis over the high plains building eastward. Strong southerly return flow across the Dakotas with high pressure over the Western Great Lakes region and a trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. WAA today as a warm front moves east across the region with the upper level ridging.
An upper level ridge over Mexico into the southern Rockies will move across the southern plains and South Texas today. The high temperatures will be near or slightly above readings of the previous day. The upper trough moving into California today will move across the Four Corners region on Thursday. Low pressure will deepen over the southern high plains Thursday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will progress southward through north Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will move eastward over the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
The cold front, currently residing just south of the Interstate 20 corridor, will continue to slowly sink south through the forecast area during the course of today. Behind it, cooler drier air will advect into the region. Thus, resulting in slightly cooler conditions this afternoon compared to recent days. As the band of stratus in the south along the Highway 84 corridor continues to erode over the next couple of hours, clouds associated with a dissipating band of convection across North Mississippi will gradually filter southeast into northern portions of the CWA during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Dry conditions will be short-lived on Thursday morning before a developing low pressure system moves off the front ranges and tracks across the central US.
Otherwise, upper level ridging continues to build overhead this morning with the ridge axis forecast to extend over the mid-Missouri River Valley by 06z Thursday. Some peaks of sun are possible today, but thick low level clouds are expected to expand northward later tonight in advance of a strong Great Basin trough. A cold front will drop south across the CWA Thursday evening as the upper trough continues east over the Rockies.
745 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Very little weather of concern over the next 24 hours with arctic high pressure and the associated stable, cold dome parked over the region. * None A large arctic high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior will drift across the state today and off to the east on Thursday.
1029 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will return across the area this afternoon, and remain through Thursday night.
A esely flow will then prevail for the afternoon with high temps ranging from the middle 30s over the lake counties to the lower 40s over south central WI. Polar high pressure will track across the nrn Great Lakes into the lower Great lakes through tonight with the upper ridging over the High Plains reaching the MS River Valley.
Tonight: A surface warm front will begin to lift northward overnight, and should prevent any major drop in temperatures.
Still looks mile out west and cooler in the east where clouds will linger longer. Milder air will move in behind this warm front today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 41 63 46 / 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 36 62 42 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 35 63 43 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 30 59 38 / 0 0 0 0.
The fog should diminish a few hours after sunrise and then mostly clear skies can be expected the remainder of the day as high pressure will remain in control across the area. Onshore flow off the relatively cooler Gulf waters will keep temps along and near the coast a bit cooler than the interior sections. Looks like there should be just enough moisture and synoptic support to support a 20-40 percent showers chance across the area with the highest PoPs across the interior. Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Great Lakes region. A closed upper low extends troughing along the western Atlantic southward over the Bahamas and Cuba.
1101 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A cold front will move through the area today.
Showers will spread from west to east this afternoon through Thursday morning along a cold front, with rain changing to snow at the higher elevations by early Thursday morning.
1008 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
724 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A cold front will move through the area today.
A longwave upper level ridge axis centered over the western High Plains will translate eastward into the Central Plains by Thursday morning. Given this trend plus the fact that guidance over the last 24 hours has overestimated the lower tropospheric moisture profiles, removed POPs in the south for today.
The rain over the southern CWA should push south of the area this morning as the upper flow turns slightly northwest as an upper ridge builds into the area. Should be dry this evening, but there will be an increasing chance for showers overnight across central and northeast Missouri as the low level flow turns out of the southwest.
Otherwise, another very pleasant day in store with plenty of sunshine although temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. With high pressure sliding off to the east today, southerly winds will increase throughout the day (turning breezy by this afternoon with winds in the 10-15 MPH range) ushering in low level moisture in advance of our next cold front which will swing through the area Wednesday.