Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although available energy for these storms may be expended by mid evening an approaching cooler airmass aloft may keep the atmosphere destabilized throughout the overnight, especially in northwest Montana continuing showers and storms till early morning.
345 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A strong cold front will cross the region tonight.
313 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the weekend, with high temperatures near normal for mid-June.
249 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A stout upper ridge is present over the plains with breezy southerly winds in part to a tightening of the pressure gradient over western Kansas as winds have gusted up to 40 mph at times with localized areas gusting up to 50 mph.
Hot and humid conditions continue through the period as a deep layer ridge of high pressure builds just west of the area. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer on Saturday as slightly warmer 850 mb temps move into the area. The hot temps combined with the high humidity levels will send heat index values into the 106-112 range on Saturday afternoon. A few weak impulses may move southward across the area on Saturday in the northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
/Issued 1049 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ Lee trough is situated across east central GA. MCS across the Ohio Valley will likely ride along the periphery of the ridge and interact with the front. The mid level high pressure center will shift west through the period.
Sfc cold front currently located just northwest of the area will slowly propagate sewd this morning. This will make for a more comfortable day coincident with abundant sunshine due to high pressure. A much cooler weekend is forecast with broad troughing in New England reinforcing nwly flow in the Ohio Valley. Clouds will clear for the remainder of the weekend as large scale high pressure remains the prominent feature. Long range model ensembles indicate a warm stretch is likely with a stagnant ridge in the Mississippi Valley. Periodic precipitation chance is likely beginning late-week as low pressure in Canada may lend a frontal passage. VFR conditions expected through 00z with winds veering to the NW as a dry cold front drops south across the region.
In addition, development may occur along a cold front as it moves into Northwest Tennessee around sunset. Heat indices may approach 110 degrees as a ridge centered over the Plains continues to keep us hot and mostly dry. A backdoor cold front is expected to move across the Midsouth late Saturday.
1055 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper ridge will amplify across the central plains today then slowly shift eastward through the weekend.
119 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
310 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Breezy southeasterly winds will continue bringing heat and humidity into the area with dew points warming into the upper 50s, to the lower 60s. Hot conditions will move into the CWA on Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 90s, to around 103.
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A weak warm front is draped across Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska this morning keeping the winds out of the south over the region. There is also a strong high pressure ridge building into the region complimented by a strong trough coming into the Pacific Northwest.
Coverage and strength of the system may start decreasing with the loss of heating, so have kept the highest pops north of MCN-CSG.
An upper level ridge with high pressure centered over Missouri sits over the central United States, while deep upper level troughs are in place over the West coast and New England. After hot temperatures in the 90s and low 100s today, mostly clear skies should allow for cooling into the low 70s tonight.
216 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The center of an upper ridge will meander around the mid-Mississippi River valley through tomorrow. A slug of moisture currently over Louisiana today will rotate around the ridge into North Texas tonight and then into Northwest Texas and the Rolling Plains on Saturday.
A weakness in high pressure over the region has generated an area of disturbed weather in the form of storms near LFT and ARA.
Clouds are increasing from west to east this morning as a closed low off the Oregon coast advances slowly eastward.
333 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Almost like clockwork a cloud line developed mostly across the Lower Keys. A cut off upper level low that produced showers and thunderstorms this morning has drifted over the Straits of Florida and Cuba where it is producing convection south of Cuba.
323 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 An upper level high will remain over the central CONUS this weekend, with upper troughing over the western states and eastern CONUS.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the bulk of the period.
(This evening through Saturday) The weather will continue to be calm and seasonably warm throughout Oklahoma and western north Texas for Friday and through most of Saturday, with an upper level ridge continuing to be placed across the region. On Saturday, perturbations begin to develop in the upper level flow along the ridge, which may provide enough support for a couple of small showers/storms to develop.
321 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
/15/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A slight shifting/weakening of the hot subtropical ridge is expected to take place over the forecast area as we go into the weekend, but the effects on the heat and humidity will be negligible, and have thus maintained the heat advisory through early this evening. We start to see some changes later in the day as the upper ridge axis that has been in control of our local weather for several days retrogrades westward. The upper ridge will sharpen and narrow, bookended by upper lows over both the east and west coasts. The eastern upper low, with its trough axis draped across New England, will allow for a substantially drier airmass to move southward in its wake.
351 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper level ridging will persist over the plains. A trough of low pressure and resultant south winds are expected to continue due to downslope mid level flow across the northern high plains, inducing a pressure trough extending as far south as western Kansas. Upper level ridging will generally continue over the southern plains through 26 June and probably through the end of the month.
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Scattered storms will linger today south of the Ohio River, with drier and cooler air filtering in for tonight through the upcoming weekend. Northwest flow aloft with E-W oriented surface cold front near the Ohio River to push slowly south of the area late this afternoon.
A few constituent models took aim at the century mark, but confidence was not solid enough to follow suit, given recent performance under the ridge this week, in addition to potential rain cooling effects this afternoon. Today's chance of precipitation is due to the center of a broad ridge being to our north, allowing for weak disturbances to enter from the east to instigate convection. The loss of daytime heating will gradually eliminate remaining convection, however, temperatures will only fall toward a minimum in the mid-70s overnight with dew points in the lower 70s. By Saturday, the center of the ridge will slowly build back south, suppressing some convection in the process and allowing maximum temperatures in the upper 90s in more areas (especially south of the I-20 corridor).
152 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Strong mid/upper level ridge remains centered over the central part of the country with a rather weak surface pressure pattern over Florida. With some slightly drier air over the region, rainfall coverage will continue to be on the low side, with the best chances over southwest Florida.
(The rest of today ) Mid level ridge remains centered over the area, maintaining hot and humid conditions for this afternoon.
1007 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (Issued 1007 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022) Gusty northwest winds and cooler conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold front currently moving into Upper Michigan will continue to slide south across the area, surging down Lake Michigan, arriving late this evening and tonight. Anderson (Issued 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022) Today through Saturday night: High pressure will move overhead today and strengthen tonight into Saturday. The high will push a back door cold front through this evening, with breezy northwest winds becoming east to northeast. High temps will be near normal today, with the front bringing cooler conditions tonight through Saturday night. Highs will be comfortably in the 70s away from Lake Michigan Saturday, with cooler 60s likely near the lake.
145 PM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler weather along with mountain showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. An upper level trough has set up over the west and that is going to bring shower and thunderstorm chances along with much cooler conditions today and into the start of the weekend. Dry air at the low levels and lack of upper level instability will limit shower activity south of Marysville. The majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish by 4 am but we will see the trough axis and another vort max swing through on Saturday. 50" over the mountains north of I-80 with little to no QPF in the lower elevations. Another impact with this trough will be the cool temperatures.
ridge rider storm potential late tonight into Saturday morning 2. potentially another ridge rider episode late Saturday night Today has been very nice for mid June, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, light winds, and minimal humidity. The low level jet begins to increase after midnight across the Devils Lake region, peaking in the 12-15z time Saturday morning along the Red River Valley. They look even warmer now on the 12z model run where these ridge riders could be (+12C) on Saturday morning. Late Saturday night could feature more isolated ridge rider storms, but confidence is even lower at this point than for those late tonight.
835 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A low pressure system moving into the western states will bring cooling for today and Saturday with periods of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
254 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions continue tonight and Saturday with Saturday being even cooler than today.
As the region is south of the Subtropical Ridge and flow is more east/southeasterly, a weak sea breeze may develop this afternoon/early evening.
This activity will move east of our area this afternoon, and the surface cold front will move across the area tonight from the north. High pressure and a drier airmass arrives this weekend with northerly flow. Cooler temperatures near or slightly below normal will be expected.
With high pressure west of the area, flow off of Lake Michigan will continue to lead to cooler temps as well. High pressure will drive the weather through the short term period as drier air from the east moves.
Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s as of 1 PM, and should reach the low 90s in the next couple hours.
Robust upper level ridging remains in place equating into light and variable winds across all sites.
Unfortunately, the cooler and drier air still lags behind the storms today. Another muggy night is expected with lows in the lower 70s.
Northwest flow aloft with E-W oriented surface cold front near the Ohio River to push slowly south of the area early this afternoon. Cooler lows to range from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Seasonably cool weather to continue Saturday night with the high becoming centered over the area.
For Saturday afternoon, a few of the high res CAMS develop isolated to scattered showers and storms across north Texas westward into the Big Country.
159 PM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 An unseasonably strong trough aloft will maintain gusty southwest to west mountain and desert winds through tomorrow before onshore winds begin to subside.
210 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Large upper ridge remains across the central CONUS, while a upper low sits over the Pac NW coast. The ridge axis is slowly moving eastward of the CA, with south/southwest flow increasing across the northern High Plains. Thermal ridge over the Intermountain Region is sliding eastward into the CWA. On Saturday, the thermal ridge will move into the CWA, bringing highs in the 90s to lower 100s.
500mb ridge in control to provide VFR conditions the next 24 hours.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A broad summertime subtropical ridge has taken hold of the central CONUS and will keep this weekend high and dry across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Under the influence of this ridge, subsidence will keep precipitation chances to a minimum for today. High temperatures this afternoon and Saturday will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s though tomorrow looks to be a degree or two cooler than today with 850 mb temperatures a tad lower. Overnight lows will stay on the mild side, reaching the low 70s to upper 60s thanks to southeasterly return flow.
This will lead to increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: A large area of low pressure off the coast will keep a somewhat moist flow from the south cluttered with small scale disturbances that have potential to produce shower and thunderstorm activity regardless of time of day as both surface based and elevated forced convection are possible.
Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105 degrees. - Temperatures and heat indices will be slightly cooler this weekend, but still uncomfortable so caution still needs to be taken when outside. Those outside of the advisory should see heat indices in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge builds over the region this weekend keeping it fairly hot and humid. This will shift winds to the east-southeast and advect slightly cooler and slightly drier air into much of the forecast area. Along the stateline we should see the warmest temperatures and highest dew points for our area with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100.
Overnight, as the leading edge of high pressure starts to build in, we will transition over to lower high temperatures and humidity that will last through the weekend.
422 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and another over the lower Great Lakes with a ridge across the south and southeast which pokes up into the northern plains. The ridge in the northern plains builds northward tonight as the eastern trough moves into New England. An amplified upper level pattern will be in place at 12z Saturday with a +2 standard deviation ridge across the Northern Plains and a -2. 5 standard deviation trough on each coast.
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
The main sensible weather concern today will be the heat, as highs climb into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the low 100s (possibly around 105 in spots).
Lows will drop into the low to mid 70s most places, with a few upper 60s in the usual cool river valley sites.
Upper ridging continues to prevail over the region, but a few diurnal storms have formed just north of the area this afternoon and are slowly moving southeast. A short wave will rotate around the upper high on Saturday and this will push a frontal boundary southwest across the area. A tall upper ridge centered from the central Gulf Coast to the Midwest will be sandwiched on either side by deep troughs across the Great Basin and New England. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will be dropping into the area from the northeast. The most noticeable change behind the backdoor front will be a change in moisture with dewpoints falling from the low 70s into the mid to upper 50s, especially across the Golden Triangle and northeast portions of the area.
137 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper level ridging will continue its collapse this morning as a deep amplitude Pacific low pushes ashore in California. High resolution models are advertising considerable rainfall across the higher terrain through the weekend with 12 hour rainfall totals over an inch in some locales.
Rain-cooled post-MCS regime may not last more than another couple of hours, and the sfc cold front still lags near the I-70 corridor. Decent pressure gradient on the periphery of the high will give us a fairly fresh NNE breeze, with 20-25 mph gusts at times. Mid- and upper-level NW flow will be present as an upper-level trough will be located along the east coast of North America with an amplified ridge present across the center of the continent.
The upper-level ridge will continue to build through the weekend as an upper level Omega blocking pattern develops across the CONUS. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly cooler with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (The rest of today ) Mid level ridge remains centered over the area, maintaining hot and humid conditions for this afternoon.
The upper level pattern features a ridge east of the Rockies and a low over Quebec, with associated troughing over the Northeast US. A primary surface cold front moved through earlier in the day, while a secondary front is expected to move through overnight. Then, as the secondary cold front moves across the region, a chance showers will be possible for the eastern Lake Ontario region. The clouds, combined with the continued cooling airmass, will keep temperatures from rising much above the low to mid 60s, with a few usual colder spots in higher terrain.
1133 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 At the surface, high pressure sits in northeastern SD, with return flow moving into the region today. Upper level ridge is sitting over the northern plains, and will slowly move eastward over the weekend.
949 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 An upper level high will remain over the central CONUS this weekend, with upper troughing over the western states and eastern CONUS.
1027 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and settle south of the area on Saturday, ushering in dry high pressure and a pleasantly cooler weekend. As of 1015 PM EDT Friday: The latest surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward through the Ohio Valley late this evening. The cold front will settle well south of the area on Saturday. The leading edge of broad high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region.
Surface moisture increased fairly quickly early this morning as the trough over the Pacific Northwest begins to come onshore. At any rate, as the lower atmosphere continues to moisten, storm QPF amounts will increase with a very small chance of flooding in prone areas. With the higher surface RHs, fire weather doesn't look to be a concern at least through Saturday. Wind under the jet max will continue to be an issue Saturday and beyond as the trough moves through the region.
The upper level pattern features a ridge east of the Rockies and a low over Quebec, with associated troughing over the Northeast US. A primary surface cold front moved through earlier today, while a secondary front will move through overnight. Then, as the secondary cold front moves across the region, a chance showers will be possible for the eastern Lake Ontario region. The clouds, combined with the continued cooling airmass, will keep temperatures from rising much above the low to mid 60s, with a few usual colder spots in higher terrain.
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the weekend, with high temperatures near normal for mid-June.
Large upper ridge remains across the central CONUS, while a upper low sits over the Pac NW coast. The ridge axis is slowly moving eastward of the CA, with south/southwest flow increasing across the northern High Plains. Thermal ridge over the Intermountain Region is sliding eastward into the CWA. On Saturday, the thermal ridge will move into the CWA, bringing highs in the 90s to lower 100s.
Expect another mild night across SoFlo with mins in the low 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s near the coasts. The main sensible weather concern today will be the heat, as highs climb into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the low 100s (possibly around 105 in spots).
312 PM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A strong Pacific trough will slowly move across Nevada the next two days. Cooler air will slowly spread eastward, except over eastern Nevada where strong gusty southerly winds will occur through Saturday.
554 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A stout upper ridge is present over the plains with breezy southerly winds in part to a tightening of the pressure gradient over western Kansas as winds have gusted up to 40 mph at times with localized areas gusting up to 50 mph.
Tomorrow looks VFR with little convection as mid-level ridging is progged to strengthen.
Breezy southeasterly winds will continue bringing heat and humidity into the area with dew points warming into the upper 50s, to the lower 60s. Hot conditions will move into the CWA on Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 90s, to around 103.
745 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The weather will continue to be calm and seasonably warm throughout Oklahoma and western north Texas for Friday and through most of Saturday, with an upper level ridge continuing to be placed across the region. On Saturday, perturbations begin to develop in the upper level flow along the ridge, which may provide enough support for a couple of small showers/storms to develop.
930 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Key Messages: - Hot start to the week - Possible precipitation chances through the week Increasing Heat to Start the Week: An amplified upper level pattern will shift east over the weekend, with an upper level ridge building across the central U.
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions continue tonight and Saturday with Saturday being even cooler than today.
723 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and settle south of the region Saturday, ushering in dry high pressure which should give us a break from the storms for a few days at least, and a pleasantly cooler weekend. Weak vorticity lobes aloft and a slowly sagging cold frontal boundary remain NW and N of the area this evening, but profiles are already drying in the northwest flow and nothing more than weak, isolated showers appear possible along the immediate front overnight. The leading edge of broad high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region.
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
As the convection collapsed near the 7 Mile Bridge earlier, some drier air aloft lowered dewpoints close to 70F in Marathon, but remaining well into the mid 70s elsewhere. While an upper trough swings eastward trough New England and the Mid Atlantic, an upper low has settled into the northwest Bahamas. now drifting west through the lower Keys and offshore southwest Florida. Northerly winds 30-35 knots wrap around the western periphery of the drifting upper low, with moderate moisture along an east-west line a little south of its best vorticity axis. An update to the forecast will be issued to reflect the high slight chance PoPs intended for the overnight, with upstream showers more transient in nature with less favorable moisture.
500 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Key Messages: - Hot start to the week - Possible precipitation chances through the week Increasing Heat to Start the Week: An amplified upper level pattern will shift east over the weekend, with an upper level ridge building across the central U.
Oh well, there is a better chance tomorrow with the backdoor cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 62 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 58 85 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 58 85 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 50 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 0.