Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
115 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
ANY PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY THE NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE DRIVEN BY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM UTAH AND WRN CO INTO SRN WY/NRN CO INTO THE NEBR PNHDL. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE THROUGH TX AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE WELL ADVERTISED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY GIVING SHOWERS.
1201 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
Southerly winds will remain gusty today ahead of this low, with persistent theta-e advection across the region. Convection is then expected to become more organized to our southwest tonight, as a surface front stalls over the central and southern Plains, and a deepening upper level low starts to push east across the Mexican Plateau. Tuesday really begins the first of several days of widespread thunderstorm coverage, as the upper low over northern Mexico and southern Texas interacts with the stalled front.
134 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS PRESENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE DRIER AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. INDICATES A SUBTLE SHIFTING OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA FOR ALL BUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
1140 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Low level moisture has increased markedly overnight due to the continued strong southerly winds both at and above the surface, with surface dew point values in the low to mid 50s across almost all of eastern Oklahoma currently.
/ISSUED 333 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016/ VERY NICE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND THE VERY WET AND STORMY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WHICH LOOKS OMINOUS DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD WE HAVE RECENTLY HAD.
1124 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016 Despite increasing high clouds this afternoon, enough mixing has occurred to allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70s with winds gusting as high as 45 mph in some locations. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread into the area Monday night into Tuesday when an approaching trough to the west will act to weaken the cap and serve as a source of widespread lift. This trough will slow its eastward progression and eventually become closed off over the Southern Plains later in the week.
Gusty south winds will continue tonight into the day Monday, with the highest speeds and gusts at KABI. Gusty south winds will continue tonight into the day Monday, with the highest speeds and gusts at KABI. While some breaks in the cloud cover is occurring this afternoon, low clouds will quickly redevelop and lower across the area this evening and overnight as the low level jet intensifies. Temperatures will be quite warm tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE NOTED JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION. THIS HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WAS BRINGING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AS DONE BY THE DAY CREW LOOK FINE. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A SE WIND AROUND 5KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
500 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WE SEEM TO HAVE MIXED INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW CENTERED AROUND 900 MB. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY USHERING IN STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s by around midnight and then look to hold steady or even possibly rise a degree or two as southerly wind pick up.
1244 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. AS SHELTERED LOCATIONS AND RIDGE TOPS ARE SEEING READINGS FALLING QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING UNDER THE RIDGE.
1257 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHARACTERIZED BY AN IMPRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CUTTING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DIGGING WESTERN US TROUGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO WERE NOTED. AND COLD FRONT TOO FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST TO AFFECT US. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY TO AROUND CENTRAL IA TO THE KS/MO/IA/NE BORDER AREA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BRINGING IN SOME COOLER TEMPS AT 925MB. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN OVER FAIRLY HIGH DEW POINTS AND RECENT SNOW MELT. THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL BE OFFSET A BIT BY HIGH DEW POINTS AND SOME WIND MIXING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMES TO COME OUT IN PIECES.
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO LIFT IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH/EAST IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT THE BEST SETUP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR. MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT FROM TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BREAK THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE TUE COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHEAST FOR WED. AND ALL MODELS SPIN A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT OF A TX TROUGH NORTHWARD INTO THE BOUNDARY. BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE CONGEALS ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
COOLER TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXIST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. TO APPROACH AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. COOLER IN THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. AND WARMEST IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS.
WELL ADVERTISED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY AND ON INTO SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT. AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN TO THE LOWER MVFR CATEGORY.
KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN SAMPLING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KT IN THE LOWEST 2000 FOOT LEVELS ALL NIGHT.
309 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016 The dryline has once again pushed back against the higher terrain of W TX and SE NM this morning. A well advertised upper trough will dig along the West Coast and become a cut-off low later tonight. The upper low is then forecast to slide southeast across northern Mexico through midweek before lifting north into Texas late this week/weekend. Models have shifted the track of the low north over previous runs which would keep more of our region in a deformation zone much of the upcoming week.
WITH MEAN TROFFING ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. COOLER TEMPS. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND FOG SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG MOST OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TOMORROW WILL LIFT DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS UNDER A 7-85H INVERSION/DRY LAYER. A CONTINUED TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES.
352 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK AND RATHER POORLY DEFINED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME MAINLY THIN CIRRUS COULD SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.
As of 18Z, an upper level ridge axis extends from the Gulf of Mexico northward through the Mississippi Valley and into central Canada. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure sits across far western Kansas early this afternoon. Winds are generally be from the south southwest ahead of this trough shifting to more of a westerly direction along and behind this feature. This in combination of the low dewpoints will cause extreme fire danger and burning of any kind is not recommended.
MONDAY WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS PLEASANT THAN THE THERMOMETER INDICATES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WE WILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING AS MID LEVELS COOL AND THE CAP ERODES. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT STATES JUST SOUTH OF MN/WI THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS. LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETIRE EAST AS THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS E NC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE SE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP US DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 40S.
THIS COMPLEX THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE COULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRACK BECOMES RATHER LOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY 06Z A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE I35 CORRIDOR WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF.
EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHRTWV TROF OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. DOWNSTREAM FM THIS FEATURE A SHRTWV RIDGE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/KS AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH 10-20 M H5 HEIGHT RISES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH THE MID- LVL DRY SLOT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TRACKING OVER A GOOD PART OF THE FA. OTHERWISE THE SFC CDNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROF WILL MOV INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD CONTS TO BE HOW AND WHEN THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TX LIFTS NEWD. BUT AGAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONT WITH THE SCHC/CHC POPS FOR FRI/SAT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.
1151 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY. BRINGING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS MAY WAIT UNTIL 925MB WARM FRONT ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS OOZED SOUTH BEHIND A A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING. TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE DRIZZLE LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AND STRETCHING TO THE NE INTO NW MN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
332 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
As the upper low moves over northern Mexico tonight, disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will intensify over southwest Texas and spread over the forecast area tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s with some upper 70s to the lower 80s along and west of the dryline. The upper level trough/low will park over the Southern Plains/Northern Mexico through mid week.
Still some model differences concerning the speed/location of the upper low as it ejects across TX.
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AT 700MB WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST CO EARLY TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WHERE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT. AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO MEXICO WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
ENDING THE WEEKEND ON A VERY SUNNY NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE THIS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER BERMUDA.
A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT FEELING QUITE SPRINGLIKE WITH DEW POINTS GETTING UP INTO THE 50S. AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY EVEN WHEN DISCOUNTING TODAYS NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING BUFFALO RIDGE WIND SURGE. THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES COULD ALSO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF TO THE EAST.
1256 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
1259 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. AS SHELTERED LOCATIONS AND RIDGE TOPS ARE SEEING READINGS FALLING QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING UNDER THE RIDGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WHERE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT. AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO MEXICO WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
1242 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION.
MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DUE TO DECENT RIDGING ALOFT.
WEAK RIDGING TAKES HOLD. A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. ONE WILL BE WITH A SURFACE TROF/CDFNT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WITH THE UPPER TROF/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
Clear skies and light winds should allow effective radiational cooling with lows in the low to mid 60s. Expect dry and mild conditions through the middle of the week as a mid-level ridge over the western U. With southwesterly surface winds in place and mostly sunny skies, have continued to trend warmer with temperatures as highs should reach above the seasonal normals into the low/mid 90s CWA-wide.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND INTO S/C FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
DIGGING NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY. HOWEVER ONE LIMITING FACTOR HERE IN WRN LWR MI WILL BE THE COOL STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OFF LK MI.
545 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND ENTRAIN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80S COMMON OVER THE INTERIOR.
553 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U. MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND TRANSFORMING INTO A TROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/ HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. LARGELY WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
3 AM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH SUCH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 75 INCHES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 68 86 67 / 30 60 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 66 84 66 / 30 80 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 66 85 66 / 40 80 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 63 81 61 / 30 80 30 20.
SOME SCT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FIRE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BUT BULK OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF GIVEN LOSS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER THETA-E RIDGE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHEASTWARD EXIT OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING AND HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. IN COLLABORATIVE EFFORT HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY SAT WITH MORE NOTABLE DIGGING OF PLAINS TROF AND PASSAGE OF FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS WITH BRIEF RESPITE AMID COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM FRI/FRI NIGHT CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Thunderstorms continue to move through mainly east central and southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of a weakening cold front moving southeastward through our area. The front will continue moving southeastward today as an upper level trough moves eastward through the Great Lakes region. The models continue to depict strong upper level divergence this morning across portions of central and southeast MO and southwest IL in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak moving northeastward through the Great Lakes region just ahead of the upper level trough.
930 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT WEATHER TO INLAND AREAS TODAY.
637 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS IOWA TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE IMPACTS FOR TODAY. AS THE TROF PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROF WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S.
938 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY.
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME WIDESPREAD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED BY 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WITH MODELS ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST.
AND EXTRA DOW\SE OF LIFT WILL BE PRESENTED BY THE VORT MAX STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.