Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will track across the region later Saturday. A strong, fast moving short wave trough digs southeast through the northern Great Basin tonight and then across Colorado and Kansas on Saturday. Winds will then turn more to the northwest during the afternoon behind a cold front.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Middle Tennessee back through Central Mississippi and into East and Central Texas. Meanwhile, a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure is centered across Missouri and Illinois this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will move north as a warm front across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight with increased clouds and a few rain showers possible mainly over extreme Northeast Arkansas.
An associated weak and narrow trough extends from Eta and into the Florida Straits while high pressure is aligned over the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Increased lower level moisture, associated with this dissipating trough lingers in the Keys and is responsible for considerable low level cloudiness across the Keys. This has capped winds in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Forecast - As the remnants of Eta lifts out to the northeast, high pressure will spread southeastward from the central United States. As a result, over the next couple of days the lower level moisture will both wash out and exit west of our area as winds become more uniform out of the east and firm up to a gentle to moderate breeze.
310 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 No impactful weather is expected through Saturday night as dry and cooler high pressure will remain in place. Temperatures will be seasonably cool to mild, undergoing a modest warming trend ahead of approaching cold front.
640 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and moves eastward Saturday.
On Saturday, as the trough heads to the east of Arizona, winds will shift to northwesterly with similar speeds as seen on Friday.
but as a warm front lifts north on Sat. Better chances for precip will be seen just beyond this TAF period as a cold front drops SE into the state Sat night.
205 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2020 High clouds will continue to stream in from the west the remainder of today as a trough approaches from the west. A cold front will sweep through from west to east tonight leading to increasing winds. Some areas along the lee of the Little Rockies and south into Petroleum County could see wind gusts closer to 60 mph, but confidence in wind gusts this high is too low at this time to issue a High Wind Warning for these areas.
However, as a fairly weak trough in the mid levels moves closer toward our region from the Pacific Northwest, we'll see precipitation initially start in the higher elevations but become more widespread this evening / overnight.
Temperatures may dip back into the 30s briefly tonight before gradually warming through the morning hours on Saturday as southerly winds progressively increase and help to bring warmer air north. Better chances for showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, will be Saturday afternoon and evening as an incoming cold front passes through. will still need to keep a close eye on any thunderstorm activity given the low CAPE-high shear environment. MVFR ceilings will also build across the area early Saturday morning, moving out late in the period as a cold front pushes into the region late in the period, also bringing a shift to more westerly winds towards the end of the period.
/issued 229 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): High pressure will remain in control for the short term with little change in the forecast.
Evening temperatures range from the low 40s to low 50s across the Midsouth, warmest near Memphis, and coolest near Jackson, TN. Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow, expect highs to return to the 70s across most of the area. We should see our first decent shot of rain tomorrow night as a weak cold front moves through the area. Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Middle Tennessee back through Central Mississippi and into East and Central Texas. Meanwhile, a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure is centered across Missouri and Illinois this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will move north as a warm front across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight with increased clouds and a few rain showers possible mainly over extreme Northeast Arkansas.
830 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure is controlling the weather across the Deep South this evening. An upper level trough and an associated cold front will race across the Great Plains on Saturday. Southerly flow will return to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday ahead of the approaching upper level trough and cold front. A warm front will lift northwards through the area late in the day on Saturday.
331 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Low level moisture advection continues today ahead of approaching low amplitude positively tilted upper trough now moving across the southwestern Conus through Baja. A sharper, more significant upper trough will follow just upstream moving from the northern Rockies late today into the central and northern Plains on Saturday. As trough axis approaches along with attendant shear and curvature vorticity, could see showers/thunder develop along the eastern Rolling Plains in area of progged 300-400 J/Kg Mucapes near Childress, however most of the activity is likely to be just north or east of the LUB CWA. After midnight, any residual showers/isold thunder will shift east with the passage of the trough.
528 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Tonight should be quiet across the CWA before an upper level trough tomorrow brings warmer temperatures, then precipitation.
/Issued 652 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020/ High pressure will remain in control for the short term with sunny skies and above average temperatures.
A weak weather system will move continue to move through the region tonight locally windy conditions and light snow possible over the high Sierra.
A cold front will track across the region later Saturday. A cold front will track across the region later Saturday. A strong, fast moving short wave trough digs southeast through the northern Great Basin tonight and then across Colorado and Kansas on Saturday. Winds will then turn more to the northwest during the afternoon behind a cold front.
142 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region for the first part of the weekend.
but as a warm front lifts north on Sat. A cold front will drop SE into the state after sunset. but as a warm front lifts north on Sat. Better chances for precip will be seen just beyond this TAF period as a cold front drops SE into the state Sat night.
High pressure is controlling the weather across the Deep South this evening. An upper level trough and an associated cold front will race across the Great Plains on Saturday. Southerly flow will return to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday ahead of the approaching upper level trough and cold front. A warm front will lift northwards through the area late in the day on Saturday.
Colfax snow profiler indicates the snow level around 7500 ft and the highway cams suggest some wet snow begins at Castle Peak to the Donner Summit.
Lows will range from the mid 40s in the northeast to the low 50s in the south.
By tomorrow evening a more robust wave and attendant cold front will move through the region, bringing one more round of showers and embedded storms to much of the area.
Warmer and breezy night ahead with a period of clearing, with increasing high clouds late tonight. Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 40s for the southern Red River Valley, and into the lower 30s near the Canadian Border. A warmer night is in store tonight with southerly winds.
A thermal ridge ahead of approaching surface cold front will also allow temps to rise well above climotological normals with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Winds will continue to veer to the northwest late today into this evening as a cold front pushes south through the area.
Temps cooling off quickly this evening with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s.
300 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Mostly clear skies tonight and Saturday as High pressure to continue. | TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 55 67 40 63 / 0 10 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 51 65 37 58 / 0 10 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 51 65 36 59 / 0 10 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 47 63 34 55 / 0 10 60 0 0.
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure will push east across Pennsylvania on Saturday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night.
Some areas may see some brief freezing rain at the onset early this morning, mainly south of I-72.
Heaviest rain and snow have moved east/southeast of our CWA but the storm's cold front was just now moving through western Idaho with more rain and snow showers.
356 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure will move north of the area through tonight with easterly surface winds beginning to push moisture back into the area.
215 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Focus for today will be incoming low pressure system from the Plains. The low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast toward upper MI after midnight.
The rest of the Wind Advisory remains unchanged, though several models suggest the potential for +50 kt gusts mixing down to the surface along the Highway 12 corridor in far southwest North Dakota. This evening and tonight, warmer air will move into the region as a warm front moves through. With clear skies, the low level inversion should develop and decouple the winds from the boundary layer. On Saturday, we look for some mixing to eliminate the lower portion of this inversion, and as the low level winds increase from good subsidence behind the cold front, we expect winds to increase during the day.
The 00z BRO sounding was relatively dry at the lower levels of the atms. /issued 229 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): High pressure will remain in control for the short term with little change in the forecast.
1008 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Tonight should be quiet across the CWA before an upper level trough tomorrow brings warmer temperatures, then precipitation.
238 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure will move north of the area through tonight with easterly surface winds beginning to push moisture back into the area.
Fairly quiet weather conditions overnight with leeside troughing and a strong gradient keeping some breezy south winds up to 20-25 mph into the morning hours on Saturday. Under clear skies and stronger warm air advection with the aforementioned south winds, morning low temperatures will not be as cold only in the mid to upper 30s staying above the freezing mark for much of the CWA. Expect changes by the noon time frame Saturday as a cold front quickly pushes across the CWA northwest to southeast with increased clouds expected but remaining dry. Winds ahead will strengthen and turn out of the west gusting up to 30-40 mph before becoming more northwesterly by early afternoon with the stronger gradient and cooler air advecting across the CWA.
Warmer air continues to move north tonight and with saturation taking place more toward mid morning areas north of US30 after temperatures begin to recover. A much more potent upper trough drops into the northern Rockies tonight. A brief period of light fzra cannot be ruled out at the onset until temps warm above freezing. More widespread precipitation is likely as forcing from the upper trough maximizes kinematic and thermal components phase by afternoon. Models highlight areas along and east of I-35 for the highest PoPs.
High pressure will remain in control for the short term with sunny skies and above average temperatures.
210 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region for the first part of the weekend.
1139 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front that moved through during the overnight hours, has stalled near the I-10 corridor this afternoon. The cold front stalling along the I-10 corridor is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front tonight. (Saturday night through next Friday) An upper trough will move east across the Midwest Saturday night, with associated cold front pushing south across our area.
1046 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Gulf of Mexico. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, a combination of radar, satellite, and surface observations reveals a weakening convergence zone across the Straits of Florida. At the surface, north-northeast winds prevail north and west of a trough axis and/or confluent asymptote, and east-northeast winds prevail to the east and south. A weakening trough over the Straits of Florida will dissipate gradually overnight and Saturday, as a high pressure cell builds southeastward.
1106 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure will push east across Pennsylvania on Saturday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night.
A cold front today moves across the region and may generate some rain or snow showers ahead of the front in the far east, followed by light, post frontal snow showers tonight and breezy west winds west of the valley as cold advection strengthens.
252 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 SFC/LL high and weak zonal flow aloft set to break down later today as a weak warm front sets up just north of the area. Later tonight however, and upper trough will approach and that will push a sharp cold front into the MS river valley toward midnight, then across the mid-state through Sun morning. Behind this front, SFC/LL high pressure and dry air will take control the next bunch of days, while aloft our upper trough transition into a ridge by mid-week, followed by another incoming trough late week.
Thunderstorm chances increase across nwrn AR sites ahead of next cold front, which will move through nern OK sites 00-03z and nwrn AR sites 03-06z.
120 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Dry high pressure will move into the region, remaining in place through Saturday night.
Temperatures may dip back into the 30s briefly tonight before gradually warming through the morning hours on Saturday as southerly winds progressively increase and help to bring warmer air north. Better chances for showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, will be Saturday afternoon and evening as an incoming cold front passes through. will still need to keep a close eye on any thunderstorm activity given the low CAPE-high shear environment.
High pressure centered north of the region will maintain a dry airmass and mostly clear skies across the area today. For tonight, high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds become light out of the southeast late tonight.
1122 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure will push east across Pennsylvania on Saturday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night.
1147 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Tonight should be quiet across the CWA before an upper level trough tomorrow brings warmer temperatures, then precipitation.
Temperatures mild compared to previous mornings, ranging from the mid 20s to upper 30s thanks to a BKN- OVC mid level cloud deck over the region, and a steady southeast wind ahead of the trough and a southwest wind in its wake. Upper level trough will develop east into the Northern Plains this afternoon/evening, driving a strong cold front through the region during the day. Cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, with winds slowly tapering off from west to east as high pressure briefly builds back into the western and central Dakotas.
Patchy fog is possible across the higher elevations in western parts of the Hill Country early this morning. Models show some very light QPF which suggests patchy drizzle or very light rain early to mid morning especially along the Escarpment into the Hill Country due to orographic enhancement of the low level jet. The low clouds and fog will erode and mix out with any drizzle or light rain ending with weakening of the low level jet. An upper level trough over the Northern and Central Rockies will move out across the Plains tonight to the Great Lakes and Eastern States on Sunday. In the wake of the frontal passage, breezy and gusty northerly flow, a much drier airmass, and much cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday.
Surface winds overnight have continued with lee-side troughing to the northeast of elevated terrain.
547 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Focus for today will be incoming low pressure system from the Plains. The low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast toward upper MI after midnight. Skies clear and winds subside Sunday night as high pressure builds in.
Collar (Issued 400 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020) Today through Sunday Night: An upper trough accompanied by a strong low level jet will swing across the Upper Midwest this weekend.
Southerly surface winds east of the trough have allowed for WAA and moisture advection, and has resulted in temperatures slowly rising overnight through the 40s. Recent CAM guidance has been aggressive in showing west to northwest wind gusts of 45-50 mph behind the surface cold front in the 23-03Z time frame. Northwest flow then takes hold for the beginning of the work week before mid-level ridging moves east and eventually flattens, resulting in nearly zonal flow over the area for most of the rest of the week.
A cold front today moves across the region and may generate some rain or snow showers ahead of the front in the far east, followed by light, post frontal snow showers tonight and breezy west winds west of the valley as cold advection strengthens. Cooler temperatures behind the front on Sunday, as today's upper 30s to mid-40s decrease into the 20s and 30s tomorrow.
503 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and windy conditions are expected with a Sunday cold front. Some increase in high clouds is expected later this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of an approaching Central CONUS trough. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, are progged to cross the region Sunday. Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow aloft should maintain minimal rain/snow shower chances Sunday night.
After the majority of the showers exit the area mid-morning there will be a period of drier weather ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area tonight. Strong westerly winds sustained in the upper teens and gusting into the low to mid 30s are expected behind the front, especially across the northern half of the CWA. Strong winds will persist into the afternoon Sunday as the surface pressure gradient tightens and a strong LLJ passes through the base of the low-level trough over the region, mixing 850-900 mb winds down to the surface. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s today ahead of the approaching cold front, which will cool temperatures slightly on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
High temperatures well above normal, with highs in the lower 80s for many areas. Cold front moves throught he area tonight and winds will gradually shift to the northwest and then north by morning. Drier air mass in place even ahead of the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 40s.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a deepening trough currently centered over the northern Intermountain West that is expected to pass through the area this afternoon into Sunday. This afternoon into the evening, a cold front is set to pass through the area from the northwest, bringing with it gusty winds and precipitation chances. As the trough deepens today, an impressive surface cyclone is expected to form and quickly eject northeastward through Wisconsin. The backside of the cyclone is suggested to have some kind of deformation band behind it, but its quick track to the northeast means the brief glance at rain this evening will not be able to muster up more than a few hundredths of rain. After the main trough passes to the east, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be dry.
24 Increasing low level moisture will lead to warmer and more humid conditions. The increase in moisture will also result in a warmer night tonight, with overnight lows between 64 and 70 degrees acrs the southern half of the area, and lows in the lower 60s acrs the Lakes region into cntl LA. A more robust upper level trough, currently over the intermountain West, will emerge over the cntl plains today and swing E-NE acrs the cntl CONUS through tonight. This will help push a rather strong cold front into the region late tonight into early Sunday.
Some areas may see some brief freezing rain at the onset early this morning, mainly south of I-72. Latest surface map shows southeast wind flow starting to pick up now that the high pressure is shifting further east. Initial concern will be if temperatures rise fast enough to overcome the potential for any freezing precip at the onset. However, lots of dry air is in place with dew points in the upper teens and lower 20s, and forecast soundings suggest the lower levels may take a couple hours to saturate enough to rain. A fairly quiet work week is in store, as the upper ridge builds west of the Rockies and shifts into the central U.
400 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 (Issued 400 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020) Today through Sunday Night: An upper trough accompanied by a strong low level jet will swing across the Upper Midwest this weekend.
and Sunday Another strong cyclone will race through the area tonight, bringing some rain changing to snow and plenty of wind. Building waves in the southerly flow ahead of the cyclone will generate large waves on Lake Michigan, possibly leading to some shoreline erosion.
Gusty southerly winds will develop overnight from this system, particularly in coastal areas and ridges of Del Norte county.
This will result in continued lee-side troughing across our forecast area with a tight north/south surface pressure gradient over the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. As a result, we will continue the high wind warning for these areas into early this evening.
With high pressure building in aloft and a fairly dry column, showers have been tough to manifest. As the low level flow remains easterly, expect that to change a bit this morning with a few more scattered showers out there, especially where we have the higher low level convergence closer to the remnant front/trough that is still lingering across south Florida and the adjacent coastal waters. That said, H5 ridging will suppress a lot of the development, so again coverage will be limited.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper trof over the northern Rockies, and a subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico, to the Red and Ohio River valleys. The progressive upper trof will dig into the middle and upper MS River valleys tonight. Strong momentum above the steep nocturnal inversion will likely have limited success reaching the surface, except in a narrow corridor along a strongly-forced surface cold front. West-northwest flow aloft will prevail early, before a deamplifying upper ridge lifts into the lower MS River valley midweek.
Today Through Sunday Night A large upper ridge is over the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow is over Arkansas this morning ahead of an upper trough in the Rockies. This upper trough will move east today and through Arkansas tonight.
As the high pressure ridge slides off to the east, the winds will pick up through today to 10-12kts by this afternoon. Though cooler air is filtering in behind the front, by dawn, the boundary is just inside of the forecast area.