Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 333 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. ANY CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 80S. IZZI 333 AM CDT LARGELY LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN TROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MCS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
910 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 333 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. ANY CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 80S. IZZI 333 AM CDT LARGELY LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN TROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MCS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
940 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 BROAD U/L RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES DRYING ALOFT DUE IN PART TO THE STRONG U/L RIDGE NOW OVER THE AREA WITH PCPW DOWN TO 1. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE COAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK BACK TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION.
1103 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S PRIMARILY DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED AFTERNOON MIXING. AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TREKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER IOWA.
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND PA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY.
101 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING CHANGES TO NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS AND SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
AS UPPER LOW OVER SE TX BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP LATER TONIGHT. THESE TRENDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THIS LOW MOVES LITTLE. ALTHOUGH EVEN A MINOR SHIFT SWD INTO THE GULF WITH THE LOW WILL CONCENTRATE MORE OF THIS MOISTURE INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S IF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AND ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FROM SCT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SE TX AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CUT OFF ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL BEND.
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 Broad ridging that has been in place across the central U. will slide slightly eastward today, allowing stronger southerly flow and slightly warmer temperatures to build into the area.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CWA. WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
438 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE ELONGATING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
STILL EXPECTING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY OVER INDIANA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FURTHER WEST ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
645 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. 590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW STRENGTHENS AND DIGS SOUTH A BIT.
208 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR 18Z TERMINAL FORECASTS VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED IN THE LOW AND HIGH ETAGES.
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENT CENTERED OVER INDIANA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE POINTING TOWARD TO SOME WEAK 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS OUT FOR THIS PERIOD. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
Sunny skies and afternoon cumulus are expected for Tuesday, with high temperatures similar to today, generally in the lower to mid 90s.
An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned over the western United States. Towards the surface, a large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Lows overnight are progged to range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into the lower to mid 90s.
FROM SCT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SE TX AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CUT OFF ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL BEND. AND ABUNDANT CONVECTION ALONG COASTLINE BLOCKING GULF MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT 10 AM ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END POPS INTO THE MID-EVENING WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE RESIDES BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY EJECTING THROUGH THE NRN/US ROCKIES OF MT/WY. LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BRIEFLY LATE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE AT 22Z. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NRN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUE NIGHT THAN PAST NIGHTS.
A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW MUCH DRYING TAKES PLACES AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY.
251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE.
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND PROG THE COLD FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH MINNESOTA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA.
ALSO RAISED TMAX ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB NOW THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEPARTED. COOLER NAM MOS HAS BEEN BETTER RECENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THAT LEAD. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BLANKETING THE SOUTHERN U. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STEADILY DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST.
THIS MORNING'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50'S TO THE MID 60'S, WITH THE GREATEST DEW POINTS IN THE LOW DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE CAP DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUGGY AND BREEZY WEEK EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
354 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHTLY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LCH/LIX CWA BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A BTR TO HUM LINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.
426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SSW FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
338 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM BAUDETTE TO WAHPETON AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
This region of higher moisture is a combination of the northern extant of the remnants of Erika (now a trough over southwest FL) and the southern extant of a weak front. Highs today will struggle to peak in the low 90s today thanks to extensive low level cloud cover this morning, but will dip into the low 70s overnight.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040 TO 050. /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. 13/MH IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND THETA E RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
258 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. AREA RETURNS TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SO MUCH WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED THAN TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N EXPECT BETTER NE FLOW AND TEMPS A CPL DGRS COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE.
329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE POTENTIALLY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
326 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
358 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS.
THE MODELS SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC.
WEAK H7 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH THE BARELY NOTICEABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH MODEL. A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS.
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THICKNESSES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
We still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri which was underneath the ridge axis.
204 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible) thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is building in from the southeast and also from the north/west.
427 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
400 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SIT ATOP THE LOCAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BRIEFLY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NRN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUE NIGHT THAN PAST NIGHTS.
326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT.
227 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 September will start cooler than average as a weather system moves through.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
137 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
/ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE SEEN THIS SUMMER. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF SCHOOL FOR MANY. AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND JUST OFF THE SFC IS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT WANT TO GO ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND WILL TEND TO GO RIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS. ALOFT: SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE W COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX/NM INTO ERN CANADA. INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NRN PAC COULD FORCE THE W COAST TROF INTO THE WRN USA. THE 12Z/00Z EC AND GEM REMAIN MUCH MORE POTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN USA. THIS ARGUES FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED E PAC RIDGE.
THE GFS AND NAM KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE UPPER RIDGING.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING ACCORDING TO 4AM SFC OBS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S.
343 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD AND KEEP US IN A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE. MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS CAN INITIATE CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EAST OF THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST.
105 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING EAST INTO NW MN. THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.