Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A brief period of freezing drizzle is still possible on the plains east of the Black Hills into south central South Dakota. Staunch upper level low over the central plains is beginning to move off to the east after stalling for a bit this morning. As the mid level dry slot works north, snow will likely end across the eastern FA with freezing drizzle returning for a period this evening. Attention then turns toward the remainder of the western CONUS trough, which will eject into the central plains later this weekend. This system will have a decent WAA signal, which would support some potential for freezing rain and sleet.
A deep and cold upper low over northern Maine at 12Z this morning will pull east of Nova Scotia this evening. Another upper low in Quebec will move toward the region tonight. Arctic air has spilled into the area early this morning, and temperatures today will feel more like January with highs in the teens north to the low 20s along the coast.
The intense cyclone that is causing the very strong wind today is moving east and will enter Missouri late tonight. Temperatures tonight will bottom out below freezing behind the cold front due to light wind and clear skies. Saturday high pressure begins to move in, keeping wind light through the day.
Didn't deviate much from the previous forecast package in regard to the high temperatures today, with highs still expected to rise into the middle 40s to lower 50s across the area. For these highs, leaned heavily towards the bias-corrected raw model blends, which seems to have had a good handle on the high temperatures lately. No precipitation is expected from the passage of this low as NAM/GFS soundings indicate too much dry air near the surface for anything to materialize, but cloud cover should increase through the day Sunday as colder air seeps into the region once the low passes through. Temperatures Sunday should still be above seasonal normals, but will be cooler compared to today's temperatures, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
355 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A much quieter day in store, as low pressure over northern MO and southern IA will continue to pull away from the region. Upper level ridging builds into the region on Sunday, providing for a milder day with highs in the 40s, though nearing 50 degrees through the lower MO River corridor.
417 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Expect continuation of quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Went on lowest end of guidance for lows tonight with the high overhead and clear skies. Seems we could see lows into the lower single digits inland west. Coolest temps Saturday in the lower 30s will be found over the east near Lk Superior with light north winds and potential for some broken mid level clouds at times. Confluent mid/upper level flow will support high pressure through nrn Ontario into the northern Great Lakes.
352 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 An occluding cyclone over IA/MO will continue to move east this morning. Dry air is wrapping around the southern periphery of the circulation between the cyclone and subtropical jet. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent interacting with the low-level jet will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through sunrise, mainly south of I-40, but this convection is expected to be east of the area by sunrise. Winds will be shifting from the west today and eventually from the north this evening as a cold front moves across the area. This front is forecast to gradually lift back to the north on Sunday as a warm front.
The dry easterly flow has done yeoman's work in beating back the northern progression of the precip shield associated with the low pressure system passing by to the south.
Previous discussion: A deep and cold upper low over northern Maine at 12Z this morning will pull east of Nova Scotia this evening. Another upper low in Quebec will move toward the region tonight. Arctic air has spilled into the area early this morning, and temperatures today will feel more like January with highs in the teens north to the low 20s along the coast.
Upper level low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring scattered light showers to Western Washington this weekend, but for the most part the weather will be dry.
and Sunday High level clouds continue to drift over the south half of the state this morning as a low pressure system tracks and weakens from Missouri this morning to the Ohio Valley region this evening. A week low pressure system in the northern stream is progged to slide northeast of the area tonight. A few clouds may be associated with this weak system tonight, but likely only influence would provide a wind shift to the southwest tonight and then back to the northeast for Sunday as a cold front drops south over the area. Northeast winds along the lakeshore for part of the day today and then for Sunday will provide cooler readings. Cooler air also will begin to filter into northern and northeast Wisconsin later Sunday in the wake of the cold front.
656 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Continued dry weather is expected today and tonight under a mid- level high pressure ridge. Highs today under mostly sunny skies will range from the mid to upper 30s east to the lower 50s southwest and south central. Only thing of note is that there could be an increase in clouds late tonight along an approaching cold front from Ontario. Confluent mid/upper level flow will support high pressure through nrn Ontario into the northern Great Lakes.
This high will also keep fair weather conditions with mostly clear skies through the weekend and the first part of the work week.
1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A cold front will bring a northeasterly wind shift to the terminals early this morning. A mid/upper level low over north central Kansas this afternoon is causing today's dry and windy conditions. Sunset and further movement of the low away from the area will see these conditions abate this evening.
Not too far to the northwest, a cold front was located from near Graham TX, to between Sherman and Paris TX, and northeast into Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. This cold front will overtake the dryline today and become stationary very close to the U. During the afternoon, a strong upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeast towards the Southern Rockies. As the West Coast upper trough moves into the Rockies, the stalled surface boundary will move back north as a warm front and large scale ascent will spread over the area. The approaching upper trough should result in an increase in elevated instability as temperatures aloft cool.
/Issued 645 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ For the 00Z TAFs, surface winds will diminish by sunset this evening and then become north at generally less than 10 knots at the terminal sites as a weak cold front moves across the region. A weak cold front will move in from the northeast this evening and overnight, with light northeast and east winds in its wake. Lee trof takes on dryline characteristics during the afternoon as it moves east across the Panhandles and into Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern sections Sunday evening and Sunday night as polar cold front and dynamics with closed mid-level low traverse the area.
A broad upper level low will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Saturday. The main center of the low will drift from northwest California through southeast Oregon to central Idaho during this period.
546 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Upper circulation was located over south central Iowa at 07Z with radar showing precip dissipating rapidly over western Iowa on the backside of the low. By tonight mid level ridging will move into the region with warmer temperatures for Sunday. Another strong upper trough will be moving into the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers by late afternoon to western parts of the area.
It will also be cooler today with gusty southwest to west winds to 45 mph on the desert slopes of the mountains.
Pleasant weather is expected on Sunday, with temperatures rising into the lower 50s under bountiful sunshine. A rapidly evolving upper level system that has ejected out from under a narrow upper level ridge has moved into the forecast area. The GFS was having major issues dealing with the low level thermal fields and thus precipitation types. Favor the NAM and other high resolution models that have a better handle on the low level thermal fields. Surface temperatures should be virtually at freezing or just below for this entire event. It looks like considering radar returns and limited surface obs/weather types precipitation was snow north of highway 30 with freezing rain and sleet south of 30.
Low clouds are spilling into the region on the backside of the low across eastern KS and western MO.
421 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Low pressure will be pulling off to the east today, dragging sfc front through the region. Cooler temperatures willlag the frontal passage today, so should remain fairly mild today despite possible lack of sunshine.
A vigorous upper trough will take on a negative tilt before closing off Sunday night across northern OK.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed over northern WI early this morning, in association with a H8 warm front, 1-2km moisture convergence, mid-level frontogenetic forcing, and MUCAPE of 400-600 j/kg. Elevated instability (H8 LI's of -4 to -6) and deep layer shear increasing to 50+ kts supports the potential for a few marginally severe storms with large hail north of the warm front. On Tuesday, the warm front and best precipitation chances will shift into northern WI, with central and east central WI getting into the warm sector during the afternoon. A marginal severe thunderstorm risk will continue near the warm front, but current indications suggest that the warm sector will get capped off. High temperatures will range from the 70s north to the lower to middle 80s south.
Convection is currently ongoing across parts of western and central South Dakota this morning, induced mainly by the low level jet and warm air advection. However, the best forcing looks like it will be limited to the overnight hours when the northward advancing warm front becomes more well defined and is coupled with jet level forcing aloft. SPC has the entire region in a marginal risk, with a slight risk just skirting the far SE CWA where the warm front will set up late tonight.
This will result in gusty winds at times and cooler than average temperatures.
Skies will be mostly clear under deep layer ridging and most areas will top out around 90 degrees.
Low pressure to organize over the central high plains propagating NE into SD overnight. Rain should lift north and east with the low Tuesday evening with most areas dry by midnight. Not a great deal of cooling in the wake of the low passage so temperatures will continue on the mild side. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs dipping below average.
1037 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Today is shaping up to be another quiet day weather-wise with temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Upper level ridge over much of Texas should suppress convection over the area so only expecting flat cumulus development today.
704 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An approaching short wave trough to the West will bring brisk Southerly winds to the region today. The trough will not be progressive tonight which will keep the thunderstorm activity restricted to the West for the most part and should not allow the activity to move into Central Kansas. Tuesday, the upper level trough will slowly come into phase with the surface through and will begin to push the dry line to the East.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to reach the low 70s to low 80s at lower elevations today with 40s and 50s at high elevation. Temperatures will be 8 to 15 degrees cooler on Tuesday as the first in a series of storm systems slides across the forecast area. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system pushing into central California with high pressure passing over the midwest and another storm system just offshore of the North Atlantic States.
A weak mid level trough of low pressure remains over Florida today in the wake of the cold front that passed through this weekend while ridging gradually builds into the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, broad high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf Coast today and shift east into the Atlantic through Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will run in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland today, and are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday afternoon.
1023 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the eastern Great Lakes today. A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move north across the area on Tuesday bringing summer type temperatures for mid week.
The winds will veer to sely later this morning and afternoon as a warm front approaches from the south. Elevated CAPEs will eventually rise to 1000-1500 J/KG while sfc based convection will likely remain in IA and IL along and south of the warm front. The warm front will then move north through srn WI tnt with temps warming through the night.
1031 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are rising through the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures of 70-75F.
Upper level ridge of high pressure currently expands across the entire central half of the United States. Strong subsidence underneath this ridge will suppress any chance for convection. The ridge will gradually slide east throughout the week as a broad trough replaces it from the west.
826 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build to the North this morning, then to the East this afternoon into Tonight.
1154 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Dry and warm conditions are expected for the first half of the week as high pressure strengthens. An upper ridge and surface warm front will progress slowly ewd today. Dry weather is expected Wed/Wed night under ridging and capping warmth aloft. Upper ridging is progged to break down and shift S/E by late in the week as a broad wrn CONUS trough begins its track ewd.
At 500 mb, a trough stretched from western Canada to off the coast of Baja. Closed lows were located near central Saskatchewan and in the far eastern Pacific off the coast of British Columbia. A new closed low should form today over southern California in the southern part of the trough, then move out into western Colorado by Tuesday evening.
Moisture is expected to slowly increase in the low levels as deepening low pressure across W TX increases the low level flow across S TX. The onshore flow will strengthen to more moderate levels today as low pressure deepens over west Texas. By Tuesday, we will begin to see slight chances for convection far west as deeper moisture pools in the region and convection develops over the higher terrain of Mexico. Temperatures remain hot across the region with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the brush country and Rio Grande plains with upper 90s in the coastal bend and Victoria area. Lows in the low 70s.
High pressure at the surface and a dry air mass is dominating the weather across the southeast and northern gulf coast states this morning. To the west a short wave is moving into the southwest states at the base of a larger trough.
/issued 557 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017/ This morning an upper level ridge of high pressure extended from South Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico, Northeast across the Four State Region, the Upper Mid-West and Great Lakes and into Canada. Upper level ridging will prevail over the forecast area through most of the first half of the week until an upper level closed low pressure system, now over California, shifts into the the Four Corners Region and becomes an open wave as it moves into the upper ridge. This will tend to weaken the ridge returning a Southwest flow pattern with a series of disturbances moving Northeast from the base of the trough as it advances across the Central and Southern Plains.
Also, temperatures were much warmer this morning than initially anticipated.
/issued 348 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017/ Upper level ridge over the Southeast Plains will gradually build across South Florida early this week before continuing to move east into the Atlantic by the latter part of this week. Inverted trough over the Central Bahamas will enhance a few to scattered showers along the southeast coast. Chance of rain begin to increase by the end of the week and early weekend as higher moisture in the southern periphery of the high surges west into South Florida. This is associated to an inverted trough over the Bahamas later in the week. Inverted trough over Bahamas will enhance shower activity over the Atlantic waters through the week and increase to more scattered by the end of the week.
717 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the eastern Great Lakes today. A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move north across the area on Tuesday bringing summer type temperatures for mid week.
The remnants of the upper level trough over the region will produce some cumulus clouds over the eastern mountains during the afternoon with a few possible showers. Meanwhile, the next weather system is a closed upper level low moving down the canadian coast that will push a cold front across the forecast area overnight through early Tuesday. Expect some quarter inch precipitation amounts around the Columbia Basin and then up to three quarters of an inch in the mountains from the passing cold front. The upper level low will then pass over the forecast area on Tuesday turning precipitation to showers with some possible thunderstorms.
Low pressure moves from western Nebraska this evening into central South Dakota overnight.
1124 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Update High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then a warm front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday.
A lull in shower activity is favored for this evening ahead of the approaching area of low pressure. Widespread showers are expected with this area of low pressure by Tuesday morning, and its associated cold front will bring brief periods of strong wind through Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure at the surface and aloft slips east to the offshore the eastern seaboard during this period.
However, the lower resolution, standard runs of the NAM and GFS keep the dry line in Kansas with no convective initiation over southeast Colorado. However, if the lower res, standard suite models are correct, there will be no convection. In this case, knowing the natural tendency for backing surface winds across the far southeast plains during the afternoon, I'm thinking the high res models have it right. This looks pretty good overall although it may need to be shifted west a little if the higher resolution models are indeed correct.
959 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Looking warm and dry for today with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Went a bit cooler than guidance based on recent obs in some locales, which results in lower dewpt depressions and more patchy fog mention across the CWA. Otherwise broad 850-mb ridge of high pressure centered across GA/AL today will continue to allow for dry and abnormally warm airmass. Temps moderating warmer today than yesterday (reaching mid to upper 80s most areas). Center of ridge shifts a bit more east of area for Tuesday and allows for more southerly low level fetch, which supports even warmer temps in upper 80s to low 90s. As the upper ridge drifts east.
WV imagery shows the upper trough about midway down the CA coast, having pushed the upper ridge east to the MS Valley and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.
Saturation of the lower couple thousand feet will increase the probabilities for late evening into early Tuesday morning development of MVFR ceilings. Temperatures at 3 AM are in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the lower 70s at the coast with some high clouds streaming across the area from the northwest. Skies will be partly cloudy today as afternoon high temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the lower to mid 80s at the beaches.
KCDS has the highest possibility of storms while KLBB and KPVW should remain dry. Slow and steady moistening of the low levels will continue this morning on broad southeasterlies, but aloft it appears likely that temps from 700-500mb will undergo gradual warming. While this fact is not so clear on models, 00Z RAOB analyses clearly show 500mb temps at ELP are 3*C warmer than MAF and AMA within SW flow.
Forecast on track and it's going to be a beautiful day with high pressure in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 60 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 59 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 84 60 / 0 0 10 0.
521 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with frontal boundary extending west-southwest across the Central Plains to another area of low pressure over south central WY. Upper level analysis continues to show trough along the west coast, with active southwest flow from the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains. Low pressure along the boundary will drift northeast into the BH area late this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into northeast WY to the southwest of the low. The best chances for showers and storms and the risk for some strong to severe storms will generally be near and to the north and east of the low from the Black Hills to northwest and central SD during the late afternoon and evening hours.
742 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then a warm front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday.
404 AM PDT Mon May 15 2017 trough of low pressure over California today will move into Arizona on Tuesday bring more cooling today.
This should translate into slightly warmer temps this afternoon.
High pressure will build in over Virginia during this time.
Went a bit cooler than guidance based on recent obs in some locales, which results in lower dewpt depressions and more patchy fog mention across the CWA. Otherwise broad 850-mb ridge of high pressure centered across GA/AL today will continue to allow for dry and abnormally warm airmass. Temps moderating warmer today than yesterday (reaching mid to upper 80s most areas). Center of ridge shifts a bit more east of area for Tuesday and allows for more southerly low level fetch, which supports even warmer temps in upper 80s to low 90s. As the upper ridge drifts east.
Not much to update this morning with the upper ridge building into the area and quiet weather expected.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 935 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Weak NE flow over the area this morning will increase somewhat as high pressure building over the region combines with development of an east coast sea breeze. High pressure slowly builds into the region over the next 24 hours.
606 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this morning. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s and will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s for morning lows. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 60s. An upper level trough currently across the west coast will start to spread east on Tuesday, remaining well west of the area. The trough will help to start to nudge the ridge to the east. Temperatures will still warm into the lower to middle 80s and no rain will occur as the ridge will remain in control.
The onshore flow will strengthen to more moderate levels today as low pressure deepens over west Texas. By Tuesday, we will begin to see slight chances for convection far west as deeper moisture pools in the region and convection develops over the higher terrain of Mexico. Temperatures remain hot across the region with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the brush country and Rio Grande plains with upper 90s in the coastal bend and Victoria area. Lows in the low 70s.