Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the wake of the cold front, cool air will spill in overnight on light northwesterly winds. Expect the light winds to keep lows in the lower 40s across north Florida and the upper 30s elsewhere.
Deformation axis shifts east and sfc ridging builds in tonight with snow ending.
Moderate northerly flow in the wake of this morning's cold front will relax tonight as high pressure builds over the area from the west. As the high pressure continues to build east into the western Atlantic, surface winds shift to easterly and then southeasterly over the local area Sunday.
No fundamental changes to the previous themes of a slight chance for showers just ahead of the cold front exiting the area by early afternoon. /Issued 354 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017/ Early this morning still a lingering isolated strong to severe storm possible along leading edge of cold front making its way into NW GA. Tonight should see a long awaited return to what will feel like actual winter as many locations in north GA should dip into the low 30s with both the radiational and advective cooling components at play. Sunday will be less windy with ridge centered close to the CWA.
Temperatures are cooler than previous days with current values in the 50s and 60s across the region. Zonal flow is currently in place across the southern CONUS, but a small but strong upper low can be seen nearing the California coast. By tomorrow afternoon, the upper low will be weaker but will approaching Texas. Models are in good agreement that strong southerly flow will develop in response to the approaching trough.
High pressure at the surface was shifting into the southern Plains. This high track will allow cold air advection to continue through today, limiting afternoon temperatures in the 40s. With the lower trop very dry Sunday morning, we think that if precip does occur, it will hold off until midday.
Weak ridging in place over the northern Plains with positively tilted trof moving through the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is located over the central Plains. Upper trof will approach the forecast area. With moderate surface heating and cooler air moving in aloft, lapse rates will steepen through the day, and induce some isolated to scattered snow and rain showers across the area. Upper trof crosses the area this evening, with snow showers continuing through midnight. Weak upper ridging returns to the area with cloud cover on the decrease during the day. A surface trof will cross the area mid to late day, with breezy westerly winds again across northwest South Dakota. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, in the lower 30s to lower 40s, coolest over snow covered areas.
upper ridge over the area today with fairly dry northwesterly flow. The low will move slowly across Washington and Oregon Sunday into Sunday night with snow likely.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to upper 20s areawide under clear skies and nearly calm winds. The coolest readings will drop into the lower 20s, especially along the Tennessee River Valley. As the surface anticyclone shifts east on Sunday, surface winds will quickly turn around to the south and push temperatures back into the upper 50s during the day.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures, what a novel concept for February, will occur across the region today.
1046 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Deep upper low over the Great Lakes this morning bringing clouds around the cyclonic flow over the region and providing just enough lift for some continuing flurries. Strong W-NW winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph will continue much of the day before tapering off around sunset as a high pressure ridge finally nudges the stiff pressure gradient eastward. The next low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest will already start to increase southerly wind by early Sunday morning.
300 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid 20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
The broad trof across central NOAM becomes a bit more amplified during the early part of the work week.
335 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 An intense cold front is east of the Appalachian Mountains and will move to the coast this evening.
With some veering of the low-level flow, a dryline should mix east across most if not all of the Big Country, extending southwest to between Ozona and Sonora by late afternoon. With considerable sunshine, temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s across our central and western counties, especially behind the dryline.
Surface wise, a weakening cold front/dry line is draped from extreme southeast Georgia southwestward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
407 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will build in the midwest and settle south of the Ohio Valley tonight.
Sunday looks dry and perhaps a touch cooler in the east vs today behind weak cold front. Southwest cwa will probably recover enough to match Saturday's high temperatures given fairly decent mixing in the low levels per model soundings.
Colder weather will move in toward the end of the week as a mid/upper level trough shifts from the north central CONUS into the Great Lakes and northeast.
400 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Fair weather through Sunday as high pressure takes hold and moves east through Sunday.
The weak lower and mid level front connecting both parts of the split trough will plunge from N to S across the area tonight bringing cold enough air and enough lift for snowfall in the mountains. The last in this recent series of upper level troughs will move through early in the week. A long wave trough moves over the Pac NW Sunday night.
High pressure dominates much of the central CONUS. Aloft, one sharp longwave trough is exiting into New England while another is developing over Manitoba into southern Idaho. This trough will produce enough lift in conjunction with the approaching front to produce isolated to scattered snow showers in mainly northern and eastern portions of the WFO MPX coverage area through midday tomorrow. Cloudy skies will linger through much of the day tomorrow as the front will settle over central MN into northern WI while the upper trough shifts into the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer due to the blanket of clouds across the area.
Still should see the coolest temperature across the snow cover in our south, with highs today ranging from mid-upper 20s in northwest Iowa, to mid 30s around Chamberlain and the Highway 14 corridor. Thicker clouds across the north should keep temperatures relatively mild in the lower-mid 20s.
A couple of short wave troughs currently over western Canada, will zip across the Upper Midwest tonight and Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure at the surface will come out of North Dakota today and move across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin with these short wave troughs. The warm air advection ahead of this low is expected to produce between 2 and 4 ubar/s of up glide on the 280K isentropic surface for late tonight into Sunday morning, with some of this over the northern portions of the forecast area.
High pressure will continue to move eastward towards the area this afternoon, and become centered across the TN Valley late tonight. A rather weak trough will begin to move into the Central Plains and upper level flow will take on a more southwesterly component by the afternoon.
Temp wise, stayed toward the cooler end of guidance based on current verification and model warm bias and did shade things even further down north in the deeper snow cover.
Some patchy freezing drizzle may persist a few more hours along the lakeshore, otherwise mid levels saturating to produce light snow. Several progs consistent with a weak surface boundary stretching over northern wisconsin from a low pressure sliding over north of the area. Progs indicate total totals approach the lower to mid 50s Sunday to indicate just how unstable aloft.
254 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Upper trough crossing the Northern Plains will bring a limited chance for very light precipitation into the evening hours across the highway 14 corridor. The aforementioned trough will move east of the area by Sunday morning, leaving a poorly defined frontal boundary across the CWA. The impact of snow cover has been marginal today, and would expect that to be the case again on Sunday, but will again hold temperatures a couple degrees cooler in the deeper snow pack areas. Sunday night will transition from a west-northwest flow aloft to a southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs into the Northwestern US.
319 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 At 3 PM, a ridge of high pressure produced mostly to partly sunny across the area. A low pressure system will move quickly east across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin tonight.
Gusty winds and noticeably colder temperatures will follow behind a cold front later today into tonight with scattered snow showers across the Alleghenies. Severe thunderstorm risk is now focusing on the Lower Susq. Strong winds aloft and focused forcing along cold front is supportive of fast-moving bowing structures capable of producing damaging winds. Risk for severe storms ends by 22z as the cold front pushes east of the area. A period of brisk and colder west winds will follow behind the FROPA with peak gusts 45-50mph on the highest ridges in Laurels. A few snow showers will also spill downwind of Lake Erie and over the higher terrain along the Alleghenies. Morning flurries and scattered snow showers will come to an end by the afternoon over the NW mtns with winds continuing to decrease as high pressure moves over the area.
1029 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017 Overnight water vapor loop showed a deep upper trough over the MS River valley, with a band of convection progressing across the eastern Great Lakes south into the TN valley.
another piece of Pacific high pressure will build into Wrn Neb.
315 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure will build into the region as the most recent storm system slowly moves out of the Great Lakes.
Aside from some residual snowfall in the mountains along the higher west facing slopes, Sunday and Sunday evening will be dry.
406 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid 20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
147 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017 The Tri-State area will see an increase in cloudiness this evening ahead of a weak upper trough that moves across the area.
This means some of those overly ambitious plants that have decided to bloom will be in for a little shock with lows mainly in the low to mid 20s.
1154 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Deep upper low over the Great Lakes this morning bringing clouds around the cyclonic flow over the region and providing just enough lift for some continuing flurries. Strong W-NW winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph will continue much of the day before tapering off around sunset as a high pressure ridge finally nudges the stiff pressure gradient eastward. The next low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest will already start to increase southerly wind by early Sunday morning.
A weak sfc trof will move across the region late tonight and into the morning.
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 A vigorous mid-level trough centered over the MS Valley early this morning will advance east today in response to the progression of an upstream system from central Canada into the north-central CONUS. We will continue to see further modification of the low-level air mass with highs in the mid 30s north to mid to upper 40s south.
The first weak system and associated cold front is currently moving through central North Dakota bringing a band of light snow along with it.
307 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 The upper level trough has shifted to the east of the region this afternoon and flow aloft has become more zonal. At the surface, high pressure will build across the area overnight. Thereafter, we will see clearing skies tonight as the high pressure builds in.
It will not be as cold as last night with lows expected to range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s across the region. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph by midday Sunday and high temperatures will range from the lower 60s northeast to around 70 degrees west.
Warmer temps are seen where mid level cloud deck pushes thru.
The next Pacific trough is expected to arrive Sunday, spreading moisture across much of the forecast area. Fast moving trough dropping through the Pac NW this morning continues southward today. This is ahead of a second cold upper level trough tracking from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pac NW for Sunday. Showers increase in coverage Sunday afternoon with increased instability ahead of the low center.
Return to southerly flow on Sunday brings warmer temps while a weak wave passes providing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers during the day.
Max temps Sunday will be in the lower 40s on gusty southwest winds.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest early this morning, will translate southeastward across the Central/Southern Plains Sunday into Sunday evening, while dampening some as additional upper troughing slides into the northwestern states. Not planning to increase the low probabilities (20-40%) of light precipitation mainly east of Interstate 135, as drier low-levels will need to be overcome at least initially.
High pressure that brought this weather is exiting off to the east attm and looks to move off the Mid-Atlantic states by tomorrow evening.
Along with cloud cover a small push of warm air advection at H850 with an associated surface warm front will help to keep mins from dropping too far.
324 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma will move east through the Mississippi Valley tonight and into the southeast CONUS on Sunday. The ridge axis will pass east of the CWFA after 06Z tonight which will cause the wind to swing back around to the south. Wind should drop off pretty quickly later this afternoon and this evening as the ridge axis moves closer.
Nearly zonal flow remains aloft this afternoon with a surface cold front over the Florida panhandle. The rest of Sunday should be very pleasant as high pressure builds in over the southeast U. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today (and closer to normal values), but it will be dew points about 20 degrees lower than today that will really make it feel nice outside under mostly sunny skies.
Thus, have strongly followed the higher resolution models on POPS and QPF this afternoon into tonight resulting in a snowfall swath of between 2 and 4 inches from northwest, north central, and into the northern James River Valley.
227 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure is currently situated over central Oklahoma, giving us southwesterly winds at the surface.
This will lead to a slight warm up with highs in the lower to middle 40s. With a warmer airmass tonight, temperatures should only fall into the 20s.
After record breaking temperatures yesterday, today will see the much cooler air working into the Quad State, with highs topping out some 30 degrees colder. Everyone should be falling to or below freezing by late this evening, so a good 6 or 7 hours of sub freezing temperatures can be expected tonight. Surface dew points in the teens will help relative humidity values plummet through the 30s percentile, despite the cooler temperatures this afternoon. As the High shifts east Sunday, return flow southerlies regenerate a warm air advection pattern that results in returning rain chances by the afternoon.
Lows by Sunday morning will be in the lower to middle 20s. The colder air will be short-lived however, as temperatures warm back into the lower to middle 40s Sunday afternoon.
The thermal profile for this suggest a wet snow or a cold rain initially as the freezing level is low, down to perhaps 1000ft, but surface temperatures are near to above freezing.
1259 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front will push through the area this afternoon with gusty west winds and well above normal temperatures. A cool and dry pressure ridge will build over the area Sunday.
--VFR conditions today through tomorrow-- High pressure will be in control during the period, featuring breezy/gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon becoming lighter and northerly post-sunset, continuing a clockwise turn through Sunday with modest breezes.
Weak upper ridging and low-level west-southwesterly flow will bring drier and slightly warmer weather for Sunday.
1240 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind a cold front. With the cold front well east of the area, temperatures are beginning their descent back towards the seasonal range. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. Wind in the highest elevations could approach Advisory criteria towards dusk. Sunday will feature more docile weather as high pressure at the surface builds in.
/Issued 326 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ Dry northwesterly to westerly upper flow today and tonight with short wave trough pushing across the Panhandles Sunday.
207 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure will move across the region tonight and result in clear skies and light winds.
A broad trough will develop over the Western U. Within this trough a weather disturbance will enter the Northern Rockies from British Columbia early Sunday morning. Impacts should be limited especially as afternoon temperatures in the lower 30s may hinder accumulations on the main roads.
/issued 243 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ High pressure continues to build across the region with north winds averaging around 5 to 10 mph at this time.
Snowfall amounts will be spotty and light, with perhaps a couple inches over the higher peaks of the central mountains by early Sunday morning.
Cold front is now east of the area with colder drier airmass working its way eastward into the area. Overnight, this high shifts east, becoming centered across the area by Sunday afternoon. The upper pattern becomes amplified again during the period as a long wave trough builds slowly east out of the Western U.
144 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Cooler temperatures will again be replaced by well above normal temperatures mid-week. With the cold front well east of the area, temperatures are beginning their descent back towards the seasonal range. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. Wind in the highest elevations could approach Advisory criteria towards dusk. Sunday will feature more docile weather as high pressure at the surface builds in.
The RAP, HRRR, and ARW all have some light QPF moving into our north central counties along this trough axis later this morning, so bumped up POPs a bit. As for temperatures, increasing clouds today, but there will be slightly warmer 925mb temps moving in thanks to westerly winds at the surface today.
After the end of the terminal forecast period of 26/18Z a lowering of the cloud bases will occur with returning moisture in the lower levels possibly with MVFR into the afternoon and evening Sunday.
Early this morning the region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough continued to shift eastward into the Great Lakes region. While afternoon temperatures are expected to remain cooler than the seasonal normals, the afternoon wind shift to the south will help to at least boost highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
/issued 335 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ Surface ridging sprawling the plains will keep temperatures on the cool side of average again today. Even with the return of southerly winds and full insolation temperatures will only peak in the lower to middle 50s.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large low pressure system continuing to exit the region over northwest Quebec. Cloud cover, snow showers, and flurries wrapping around the low are persisting early this afternoon over north-central and eastern Wisconsin.
The high pressure will shift east tonight in response to a weak upper level short wave approaching the area. This will result in low level winds veering to the east then southeast and ushering in moisture and warmer temps through Sun.
312 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure over the Plains will move east up the Ohio Valley on Sunday.
/issued 413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it passes across SE NM Sunday.
High pressure expected to build into the region this afternoon with clearing skies and a relaxing pressure gradient. Should be ideal conditions for radiational cooling tonight and have temperatures forecast in the lower to middle 20s areawide.
An upper trough will south into western Washington on Sunday morning.
Winds have remained somewhat brisk, especially over the eastern cwfa, but they will diminish as the ridge moves into our cwfa. Dew points in the lower teens and single digits have kept the humidity down. Winds will continue to diminish early tonight then switch to the south as the ridge moves off to the east.
As the trough deepens and draws closer during the day Sunday, surface pressure falls across SE NM and 70kt jetmax will result in a dryline extending roughly across the TX/NM border and pushing east through the Rolling Plains into North Texas by late afternoon.
831 AM PST Sat Feb 25 2017 Sunny and a little warmer midday, before a cool sea breeze develops in the afternoon.
108 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an upper level trough progressing offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning will increase surface pressure and strengthen high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Appalachians today, aiding the advection of a drier airmass into the region from the NW. With a much drier airmass in place and clear/calm conditions, expect lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the typical rural/low-lying areas (especially west of Hwy 1 across the N/NW Piedmont) to the lower 60s elsewhere, perhaps 65F in the far SE Coastal Plain. Expect continued clear skies with high temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees warmer than tonight.
Temperatures will be warmer today with highs from the upper seventies to lower eighties.
Upper trough axis is expected to shift east of the area overnight. 20 No major changes are planned for the extended as long range models continue to show an upper level ridge settling over the southeast and dominating through the period. Looks like at least slightly above normal high temperatures will prevail under high pressure influence.
625 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front today, bringing cooler and drier air to the area for most of the week. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of the week.