Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1101 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 Web cameras showing a few pockets of light snow remaining in the higher mountains. The snow will increase in the mountains tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Lift from the jet and the upper level trough will also aid in lift tonight and Friday. In addition gusty winds will produce blowing snow over the higher passes. As for highs, downslope flow along the front range will allow for highs close to 50 over the urban corridor, while across the far nern plains readings will only be in the 30s behind a cold front.
Tonight and Friday Rain will change to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and then to snow in eastern Wisconsin while the rest of the forecast area will have light to moderate snow. Decided to include additional counties in the winter weather advisory even though amount of freezing or frozen precipitation will be light, since rapidly falling temperatures will produce icy roads and sidewalks during the evening commute.
High pressure will gradually build over the region through the upcoming weekend.
235 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with northerly winds across the region.
Medium Strong cold front will continue to make its way through the area with mid level wave providing the bulk of forcing for the precipitation.
233 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Nice new model and collaborative consensus incorporates a faster incoming speed of the freezing airmass at the surface.
Early Friday morning with IFR to MVFR cigs hanging around precip will begin to transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet just before 12z for CKV and around 14z for BNA and MQY. The transition to freezing precip for CSV will be closer to 18z.
No significant weather (other than much cooler conditions) in the remainder of the forecast. Surface pressure gradient behind last night's cold front will diminish this afternoon, allowing winds to diminish. Much cooler today with highs 35 northeast to 45 southwest. Southerly low-level flow returns to all areas by mid-morning Friday, before a pre-frontal trof brings a wind shift into western sections by afternoon.
344 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Our northern stream upper trough will continue to move eastward tonight. At the surface, arctic high pressure will dominate the northern plains with decreasing winds this evening, becoming rather light overnight. The low level warm air advection and upper level PV are virtually gone.
For today arctic cold front will move quickly east through the area. However, there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle at the onset of this precipitation. The second area of 800 to 500 mb frontogenesis (associated with the mid level trough moving out of the Dakotas) will bring another round of accumulating snow to southeast Minnesota and along and north of Interstate 90. On Friday night, another arctic cold front will move quickly southeast through the area.
352 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 A coastal trough will shift inland through tonight.
Areas of drizzle and showers were occuring along and ahead of the front with freezing drizzle behind the front. However, monitoring an area of deeper clouds and cloud ice over northeast Texas streaming north ahead of a large upper level trough moving in. If this cloud ice makes it up here we may see a switch over to some sleet and snow with pockets of freezing drizzle. Northwest flow will continue through most of this period with temps back down below freezing for many days ahead.
The low pressure system just off the coast will continue to weaken this evening.
Surface ridging will build into western/central North Dakota tonight. This will be in the form of another cold front with the potential for some light snow during the afternoon followed by increasing winds during eve/night. By Wed ridging building in from the west will lift regional temps to near average values with the outlook for a further boost as the week comes to an end.
Rain ahead of a cold front will begin to spread into the area late tonight, increasing in intensity tomorrow morning which may lower vis to IFR or LIFR at times.
Otherwise, things are looking much quieter for a while with models are persistent with a return to a western ridge and eastern trough upper pattern over the continental U. This continues to look like a dry pattern with any little ripples just downstream from the upper ridge looking far too weak to interact with limited moisture.
As a result, will hold off an any potential highlights, which at the moment would be confined to the higher Park Range Peaks.
Rain and snow mainly in northern areas today along an eastward-moving warm front. Pcpn has been in the form of rain in the Treasure Valley as temps stayed above freezing overnight. Cold front this evening will briefly increase showers followed by lowering snow level again tonight. Next ridge will already be here Friday with temps again rising above normal. New 12Z NAM shows a weak trough moving through Idaho Friday just ahead of the main ridge.
349 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the prefrontal trough will be exiting the area to the east in the hour. Clearing skies have allowed temps to climb into the 70s behind the trough to the west. However, lingering moisture combined with lift and cooling temps aloft in association with the approaching upper trough has allowed scattered tstms to redevelop across portions of the western CWA.
1043 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 Latest upper analysis shows a trough over central North America with the trough axis currently moving eastward and away from the forecast area. At the surface, cold high pressure is moving into the region from the northwest. The winds will diminish some this afternoon but cold temperatures will remain, with the afternoon highs ranging from the lower 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills, the the single digits above zero over northwestern South Dakota.
349 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Cold high pressure will build into western Kansas tonight.
1204 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 A strong cold front is continuing to push across SE TX, with showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the boundary. Wind speeds will be towards the higher end of this range closer to the coast, impacting LBX and GLS. Starting to see a broken band of showers develop across western parts of the CWA ahead of the prefrontal trough. Look for the cold front to fill in a few hours behind the trough/precip.
A couple narrow light snow bands were forming across eastern Oklahoma on the back side of a strong cold front, but ahead of the main trough axis, in an area of forcing. Farther east, across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, temperatures remain above freezing, allowing the precipitation to initially fall as drizzle or light rain. As temperatures drop this evening, the precipitation will transition over to a mix of freezing drizzle, sleet and then finally snow. This will cause slick spots to form on roadways and elevated surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses. The wintry precipitation will come to an end overnight tonight as the trough finally pushes east and much colder and drier air is advected into the region.
This results in 1 to 3 inch snow totals with the highest amounts in the northwest part of the forecast area and lowest amounts in the south and southeast. The potential freezing rain amounts have been more challenging and there has been less model agreement there.
A cold front currently extends from northeast Kansas through western Oklahoma and into southwest Texas. The cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. Behind the front, temperatures will drop rapidly and precipitation will change over to freezing rain, then sleet and eventually into snow. On Friday, the cold front will be east of the forecast area with parts of northeast Mississippi starting out the morning with rain before a change to freezing rain and sleet. High pressure will start to build into the region by Friday night with snow ending over eastern sections of the forecast area in the evening.
249 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Early this afternoon, the cold front that brought the steep drop in temps this morning has cleared the area to the east. As the upper trough axis swings through this evening and tonight, skies will gradually clear from the west. Northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend while at the surface strong high pressure drops southeastward from the northern plains.
Friday will be cooler and drier, with less wind as high pressure spreads out over the area, and with high temperatures in the 60s. Friday night will be cooler with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s as winds decrease to light.
211 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 The cold front is well through the forecast area as of early this afternoon, with temperatures steadily falling into the teens and 20s. In these areas, a combination of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and flash freezing have resulted in hazardous conditions, especially on untreated roadways and walkways. Further to the east, light scattered wintry mix precipitation in the form of sleet, freezing drizzle, and snow flurries will continue through late-afternoon before shifting to the east. Impacts from this appear to be somewhat limited, in part to the later arrival of sub-freezing air and warm road temperatures in the 30s, timed with the earlier moderate precipitation.
It is setting up to be a slushy commute, though not all that slick until this evening when temperatures start to drop below freezing and it ices up.
309 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a sharp cold front between the Illinois River and the I-55 corridor. With temperatures rapidly falling late this afternoon and evening, a period of very light freezing rain will be likely. The boundary is expected to slow its eastward progress late tonight, resulting in a more prolonged episode of freezing precip along/southeast of the I-57 corridor.
1034 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 18Z TAF CYCLE Upslope southeasterly flow at KLVS has produced low clouds in the low MVFR category this morning. Weak high pressure will move into northern and central NM tonight, and winds decrease to 10 knots or less after 02Z. Friday will be warm area wide, but a few back door cold fronts will be on tap to keep temperatures cooler across the east thereafter. However, cold air advection continues behind the back door segment of the cold front.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with an arctic airmass over central Canada which is dipping into the lower and high Plains of the CONUS and the northern Rockies of British Columbia. A large warm ridge has begun to develop off the west coast of the CONUS making its in-roads into the Desert Southwest.
Low pressure and an associated arctic cold front move across northern Michigan through early tonight. Small chance for a little freezing rain early tonight. The relative warmth of today will come quickly to an end later this evening as an arctic cold front moves across the region. In the meantime, rain showers will continue for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours as weak low pressure traverses the area. This could lead to a brief period of mixed snow and sleet (with a smaller chance for a little freezing rain). less than an inch and little to no ice accumulation (from any freezing rain).
1129 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 Latest IR satellite imagery shows a closed low continuing to spin counter-clockwise between the southern Florida peninsula and the Bahamas.
1117 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Strong cold front continues to push through northeast Oklahoma this morning with gusty north winds at 40-45 mph behind front. Widely scattered areas of light freezing rain/sleet will remain possible this afternoon immediately behind the front across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a hundredth or two of ice accumulation possible at most. Still the potential for a narrow band of light snow to develop across northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon in association with upper trough axis. 1 inches), even small amounts could create slick spots on area roadways as temperatures quickly fall into the lower to mid 20s.
Surface cold front and impressive temp gradient is running faster than even the his res models like the HRRR. Fort Scott Kansas is already reporting freezing drizzle while its near 60 out east. Looking at top down analysis, locations immediately behind the front lose cloud ice quickly therefore we are more concerned that this may end up being a freezing drizzle event for this afternoon and evening for locations behind the front. The other notable feature are wind gusts as a strong area of low pressure moves to our north. Rain followed by small amounts of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, snow, and sleet are expected as temperatures fall well below freezing. While freezing rain or drizzle amounts are expected to range from a trace to just a few hundredths of an inch, a thin sheet of ice on roads will create impact.
As a cold front approaches from the west, winds will shift out of the southeast and eventually south.
Temperatures will be slow to warm with the north flow in the low levels with highs in the 30s and 40s. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the plains. In spite of this, temperatures will be warmer due to better mixing from breezy north winds.
Surface ridging will slide through the area allowing winds to decrease during the overnight hours. All of the higher resolution guidance indicate this activity moving into the west (around Lexington) around 9am. Feel the best chance for the higher accumulations/longer duration snowfall will be along a track from west central Nebraska through central/south central Nebraska into southeast Nebraska and into northeast Kansas. There is some indication from some of the higher resolution guidance that north central Kansas could see some accumulating snow as well and have raised pops for those areas during the day.
347 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 Scattered showers that developed earlier this afternoon will begin to diminish tonight as the upper level low continues to move towards the northeast away from the region. Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a mid level trough moving across the eastern half of the country tonight and Friday. This combined with high pressure over the western Atlantic will allow for an increase of moisture to move into the area on Friday. Due to the increase in moisture, the chances of showers will increase during the day on Friday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest computer model guidance show this cold front moving through the area on Friday night.
159 PM PST Thu Jan 11 2018 Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend as high pressure builds into northeast California and western Nevada. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest has brought an increase in thermal/pressure gradients, with gusty winds (generally 20-35 mph) across northeast California and western/ northwestern Nevada this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight and persists through the weekend.
Have also cancelled the High Wind Warning for western Oklahoma and western north Texas as wind speeds have diminished well below criteria. The mid level trough axis will exit our FA to the east around 00Z so only SChc PoPs will be possible through 06Z over SE OK. A secondary surge of cold, dry air is expected through the day Sat, as another polar trough digs into the upper Great Lakes region and strong northwest flow continues on the backside of the longwave trough.
High pressure builds in tomorrow, resulting in dry and mild weather through Martin Luther King Jr.
258 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Cold air continues to move into the region this afternoon behind the cold front that moved across the area this morning.
Upper level analysis places trough stretching from near the Red River Valley southward through the southern plains.
753 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Low pressure is expected to pass east of our region early Friday with much of the steady rain activity remaining over the ocean. However, an upper level low will provide for showery weather. A weak warm front crosses the region Saturday.
Short-term guidance indicates the low-level jet (and associated isentropic ascent) will continue to shift eastward this morning. The low- level jet is forecast to weaken as it shifts eastward, so would expect rainfall intensity to decrease as these storms shift into parts of central Oklahoma. After today, rising mid-level heights and a developing low-level thermal ridge will warm temperatures to above average in the 90Fs.
High pressure remains in control of the area this morning with dry air continuing over the area. Aloft, the broad upper trof continues today with dry mid/upper level flow. Highs today in the mid 80s inland and the lower 80s along the coast. Lows tonight several degrees below normal for most locations, ranging from the low to mid 60s over all interior zones, upper 60s closer to the coast (with a few lower 70s along immediate beaches).
615 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A quieter day today across the forecast area, as surface boundary currently located near the Missouri River lifts northeast as a warm front through the day. Front is expected to still be located in our far northeast areas by peak heating, and weak convergence along the boundary could trigger isolated storms east of the Buffalo Ridge during the mid-late afternoon. Given fairly dry soundings and increasing southerly flow behind the warm front, looks like an optimum mixing day, and have continued to favor warmer/drier/windier bias-corrected guidance options for today. A cold front will move across the area from western Dakotas Saturday morning, but breezy to windy conditions ahead of the front will be the main impact. Tightening pressure gradient will yield windy conditions east of I-29, with highest gusts across the Buffalo Ridge area.
High temperatures should be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday as heights rise aloft and 850-hPa temperatures climb inot the mid teens. Lows tonight should be much warmer than this morning, mainly due to the southerly winds at the surface. Gosselin Warmer temperatures can be expected this weekend with an upper level ridge building over the central US, and surface winds becoming southerly.
Northwest flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface should keep rain chances in check today. Expect dry weather again on Saturday as upper level ridging briefly develops.
945 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 An atypical early summertime, diurnal TSTM complex developed during yesterday evening across the TX Panhandle and then moved SE down the E side of the ridge centered across the High Plains through this Friday morning. /issued 649 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ High pressure to maintain light winds across area terminals today. These storms are currently moving southeast towards the DFW Metroplex and are associated with a weak upper trough moving southeast across the Plains. It is worth noting that a couple of the higher resolutions models, including the HRRR, indicate some convection could reach portions of East Texas by noon. With little in the way of cloud cover on Saturday, temperatures should be even warmer.
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis indicate a mid-level ridge from the southern Rockies into the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which is bracketed by troughing over the Pacific NW and eastern North America. trough will result in the gradual de- amplification of the downstream ridge which will shift into the north-central states today.
Aloft, the broad upper trof continues today with dry mid/upper level flow. Highs today in the mid 80s inland and the lower 80s along the coast. Lows tonight several degrees below normal for most locations, ranging from the low to mid 60s over all interior zones, upper 60s closer to the coast (with a few lower 70s along immediate beaches).
1023 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 The slow moving upper low that brought below normal temperatures and showers at times across the region this past week will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region today. A weak ridge of a high pressure will build over the state today providing plenty of sunshine and dry conditions through at least the mid afternoon hours. A warm front and weak wave of low pressure will slide southeast from the upper great lakes region late today and will drift across northern Pennsylvania or southern New York tonight.
The aforementioned vorticity maximum does move into SE TExas by Saturday morning with a developing upper level low over the area for Saturday.
A warmer weather pattern starts today as an upper level ridge slides into the Central High Plains. Lows tonight are progged to range from the lower 60s along the KS/Co border to upper 60s across central and south central Kansas.
950 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 The TN Valley will remain under a retreating broad upper level trough expanding over much of the eastern CONUS, while high pressure slowly builds at the surface. Despite the abundant sunshine, temperatures will still be a couple of degrees below normal, with highs expected to be in the low to mid 80s. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern over the area through the remainder of the forecast. Lows in the lower 60s are expected by Saturday morning, despite light winds and clear skies.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. No widespread restrictions are expected as broad high pressure builds.
There is slightly better mixing and a warmer start than yesterday and temperatures had no problem reaching 90 in several locations. Thus, high confidence the majority of the CWA will see highs in the lower 90s today.
711 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 The slow moving upper low that brought below normal temperatures and showers at times across the region this past week will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region today. A weak ridge of a high pressure will build over the state today providing plenty of sunshine and dry conditions through at least the mid afternoon hours. A warm front and weak wave of low pressure will slide southeast from the upper great lakes region late today and will drift across northern Pennsylvania or southern New York tonight.
Moving into the weekend, PoP chances will decrease as the northwest flow regime transitions into a ridge axis moving over the region. The ridge axis will begin a gradual warming trend each day through the weekend pushing highs into the 90s across everywhere minus the Hill Country.
A slow moving area of low pressure will lead to windy, dry and cooler conditions through the weekend.
The impending area of low pressure continues to spin off the Pacific coastline, sending added moisture across the Pacific Northwest. Weekend Outlook: Showers will continue through the weekend with afternoons seeing showers and/or thunderstorms developing mostly in the higher elevations. A broad trough over the Pac NW will keep cool and unsettled conditions over the region into the weekend. Southwest flow in advance of the trough axis will favor precipitation over the east-central Oregon and west-central Idaho mountains through the period, with enhanced activity during the day due to increased instability.
Upper trough down the eastern seaboard with drier air wrapping into the region as seen in WV imagery with the deep moisture well to the east. Tonight, low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s north and in the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s coastal for the central and southern zones.
647 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 We will be under the influence of a mid and upper level ridge today.
Temperatures will be around average in the lower to middle 80s. An expanding southern US mid level ridge will move into the area.
1126 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Visible/IR satellite reveals a stalled, weak trough positioned along the typical location of the Gulf Stream. High pressure is centered across the eastern Gulf. Weak high pressure will exist over the coastal waters to the Florida Keys, resulting in a brief window of gentle breezes this afternoon.