Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. BUT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST.
1256 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
A GRADUAL REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AND DRIER MEAN FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO ISOLATED AT BEST FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. TOWARD MID WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE NET RESULT BEING FAIRLY STEADY/NEUTRAL TENDENCIES IN MID LEVEL THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS OUR REGION.
250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 CURRENTLY - A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST - THE TROUGH WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN STALL TONIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF CUBA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY.
So VFR conditions will prevail as the subtropical ridge continues to dominate with very warm mid level temperatures.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE LOWER.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH COOLER LOWS EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE IN THE MID 60S BUT NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO OUR WEST.
323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES SO TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT OR MON. QUIET TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT OVR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. LEE-SIDE TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT T-STORMS.
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING THAT AREA.
HOT WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS MID TN AS A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SPRAWLS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TYPICAL JULY HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER 100S.
249 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE AS WELL AS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AND DESERT LOCATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
602 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS.
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
117 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. TONIGHT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN PRESSURE TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. THAT SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR STORM AND WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE POP FROM 00Z TO 03Z FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A PHN TO OZW LINE.
249 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015 DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S THAT WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE AIRPORT WHERE THE BEST BULK SHEAR RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. RIDGING. DRYING AND MORE ROBUST CAPPING WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER POSSIBLE OVR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE NW/NRN ZONES INCLUDING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY BEING LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPR LVL RIDGE. A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY. BUT DRY AND CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR NW WHERE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WCST TROF WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO GIVE ISOLATED CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVES CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AIDED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND EAST.
TONIGHT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN PRESSURE TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. THAT SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR STORM AND WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE POP FROM 00Z TO 03Z FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A PHN TO OZW LINE.
Summertime high pressure over the nation's mid section has temperatures sizzling across the Ozarks.
PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS WHILE THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS EDGING SOUTH ACROSS NE FL TRAILED BY NUMEROUS TINY SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL. BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE EDGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE GA COAST. STACKED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SE GA SUN WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ADVERTISED POPS LESS THAN 15% WHILE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN KEEPING HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BELOW 100 DEG. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT ACROSS SE GA TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
THIS LAYER WAS PARTIALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND DECREASE SURFACE DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MISSISSIPPI.
424 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY.
1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 MORNING CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS MANY AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. WITH GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. COMING UP WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (100) AND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
115 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DEEP RIDGE IS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS HIGH WHILE SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY (EXCEPT FOR A FEW EAST OF ALEXANDRIA AND OVER ST MARY PARISH). THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING A WEAKENING BACK DOOR FRONT OVER AR AND MS WILL DRAW CLOSER WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE THE BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTHEAST MODESTLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
433 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
735 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS AND EAST OF LANSING. OTHERWISE IT WILL PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S.
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STILL EXISTS IN OUR NW FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL EQUAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MAINLY S CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE MI. COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT OF A MISNOMER TODAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. THE HIGHEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLATTENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND CENTER OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL FURTHER ADD TO AN ALREADY WARM DAY AS A TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON WINDS LESS THAN 20 MPH. A PERSISTENT AND STRONG H500 RIDGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 PAST FEW DAYS HAS CURED GRASSLANDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KICK THROUGH AND OVER THE RIDGE BREAKING IT DOWN AND ALLOWING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE OREGON COAST AS OF 10 AM MDT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER SE OREGON BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OREGON AND WASHINGTON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LEAVING CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
OUR WELL ADVERTISED SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ A DOMINANT MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. AND IS PROGGED TO ROTATE SLOWLY AND STEADILY SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE.
WHEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDES AMPLE DYNAMICS TO IGNITE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE CWA AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN SPINES STATEWIDE. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR FILTERING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO OUR REGION WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1255 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS WITH NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A LONGER FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
1113 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
924 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS NE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE WARMER SFC TEMPS OCCUR.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT SW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PATTERN TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY LIGHTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/OBS SHOW STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOW UP WELL IN THE MORNING'S CAPE SOUNDING AND LATEST PROFILER WINDS. SFC FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY LIGHT (5-10 KT) N/NE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PUSHING 590 DM. BY FRIDAY EVENING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THIS RIDGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
REGARDLESS, H5 TEMP IS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LOWER FZL LEVEL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FORECAST WITH MORE CAPE FROM THE MODIFIED SOUNDING. THUS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG, AND BASED ON THE COOLER MIDLEVELS WILL ADD HAIL TO THE HWO.
Temperatures today will again warm into the upper 90s to around 103 degrees with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
Short range models indicate the upper level ridge axis across the Intermountain West becoming tilted to the northeast into the Northern Plains today as an upper level trough begins to lift northeast off the Pacific into the Pacific Northeast. Seasonal temperatures are expected again today as a prevailing south to southeasterly flow reinforces the warmer air mass across central and southwest Kansas. Highs up into the lower to mid 90s(F) are expected this afternoon.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST NORTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO RADIATE AND LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THIS MORNING AS UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAINTAINS SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING VERY HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERALL LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE SHOULD MIX TO 600 MBS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A STATIC ATMOSPHERE.
659 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE RIDGE AXIS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE MID MS RVR AND OH RVR VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS CONVERGING ON A BOUNDARY/TROF COMPLEX ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. WILL WALK OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OUT OF THEN THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO ADJUST EASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT FEEL WITH CAP AND RIDGE ENHANCEMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE DVN CWA. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGE AXIS ADJUSTMENT EASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIR LATE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Winds should begin to slightly veer during the day today as the high begins to nudge slowly eastward. Temperatures will be a tad warmer today across the area and we'll also begin to notice a gradual increase in humidity values through the short term.
HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BASICALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES AT A MAJORITY OF THE OBS SITES/. BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS IS UP FOR DEBATE. BUT LIKE MOST COLD FRONT SITUATIONS. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER.
1006 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. WITH VERY HOT AFTERNOONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR EAST (GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD AND INTO ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS) WILL LEAD TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LEAD MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN REGARDING HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS IS FOCUSED ON THE LOWER VALLEYS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO PERSIST THRU THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MONTANA. THE MID/UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/GULF STATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SEE THE MAIN FEATURES RETROGRADING WEST WITH A LEFTOVER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS FLORIDA.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF MUCH AND WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE SE U. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TOWARD ARKLATX THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THICKNESSES BUILD UP A LITTLE, SO GOING WITH READINGS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY FOR HIGHS.
CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN U. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ONE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO IN NW AL WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER DEFINITELY HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT AS WELL AS THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
1117 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BASICALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES AT A MAJORITY OF THE OBS SITES/. BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS IS UP FOR DEBATE. BUT LIKE MOST COLD FRONT SITUATIONS. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD OCCUR. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST LIFTS NWD. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING SHARPLY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
639 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. AM EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
737 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.