Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The jet's axis will continue to lift northward overnight as ridging builds over the Desert Southwest. Ridging builds over the Great Basin on Monday, with its axis propagating towards the CWA.
Further east, the winds are taking longer to surface after a cold night and lacking the low level gradients we had yesterday. We still expect westerly winds to mix down across the plains this afternoon as the low levels get warm enough to support that. Winds will likely be marginal for the High Wind Warning with a peak early to mid afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado. The jet shifts well north of Colorado tonight as an upper level ridge starts to form across the western states.
Cold front is expected to push through the region later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Much drier air will quickly move in, along with cooler temperatures. By Monday morning many locations will be in the upper 40s across our AL/GA counties with temps in the low 50s across the FL Big Bend and south-central GA. High temperatures Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday highs.
55 High pressure will continue to build into the state behind the cold front. Today Through Monday Night A strong upper trough continues to move through the Plains and Midwest this morning. Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term and ridging will become more amplified over the Rockies Monday. High temperatures today will be cooler in the mid 50s to mid 60s and in the lower to mid 60s Monday.
97 As the cold low pressure trough moves east of our area today, and a warm high pressure ridge begins to build northward, the only chance for any precipitation seems to be scattered snow showers tonight clipping our far NE corner of Montana on a subtle short wave piece of energy riding the exiting low pressure influence. Otherwise, the forecast is either quiet or benign with any further precipitation chances being confined to the higher elevations of central Montana on Monday night.
Model consensus is for this low to track through the area roughly near or north of the Interstate 94 corridor, with the highest chances for light snow/flurries along and north of this track Monday afternoon. Quiet weather returns for mid-week, as high pressure traverses the area.
235 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Wx map shows strong cold front extending across the coastal waters.
Gusty NNE winds will taper by sunset before falling to 10 knots or less overnight as high pressure draws closer. This high will keep light NE winds intact through Monday.
1239 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2020 Lee-side troughing over the plains today has kept tight pressure gradient along the Upper Yellowstone Valley, but the orientation has not been as favorable as the past couple of days. High pressure ridging begins to build into the region Monday resulting in much lighter winds for the foothills and plains along with a warming trend.
1258 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Strong winds will occur through the rest of the day in the wake of a cold front.
The upper levels this afternoon was characterized by a trough digging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, northwest flow stretching through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, a closed low over the British Columbia coast, and an upper level jet nosing over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. High pressure has developed over North Dakota under confluent flow between the systems to our northwest and southeast. Through the first half of the week, a western ridge builds and propagates east over the region.
1138 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Rain showers and high winds will accompany a crossing cold front today.
Northwest flow will prevail on Tue as a ridge builds to the west. The ridge will move over the Northern plains Tue night into Wed, offering a nice boost to afternoon temps into the 40s. A dry cold frontal passage Wed night should only result in Thu being a few degrees cooler. Light snow is possible, with the higher confidence at KGFK and KDVL.
231 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Upper trough axis and attendant sfc cold front now quickly pushing eastward across the CWA and what was a fine convective shower line approaching from AL has become just an area of isolated sprinkles as the moisture diffuses and elongates away from the greater forcing to the north. Mostly clear skies to follow with ridge dominated regime setting up for majority of fcst remainder this week. Staying cooler Monday afternoon with only low 60s in most of north GA. MVFR cigs ahead and along cold front as it pushes toward the sites this afternoon.
With the main H500 trough continuing to move east into the Great Lakes Region, in the wake of the system, H500 height gradient will begin to wane.
This area of high pressure is progged to translate eastward over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley area on Monday with light and variable winds expected in it's wake. Breezy southerly flow is anticipated by afternoon as high pressure moves east of the area. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 60s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across the central CONUS on Wed and with sfc cyclogenesis across the Central High Plains, strong SSW sfc winds are anticipated downstream across central and eastern KS.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move across the area tonight. Highs climbs into the lower 50s to lower 60s, well above normal.
/Issued 1252 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ /Through Monday Night/ A pleasant mid-November Sunday is unfolding across North and Central Texas behind last night's cold front. High temperatures should top out in the low 60s along the Red River to the low 70s across the south/southeast with sunny skies. With chilly conditions expected Monday morning, patchy frost may be possible in cooler, low-lying areas.
1149 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Tightened up pop gradient given trends with zone of showers ahead and along the cold front as it impinges upon the far NW CWA at the time of this update. /Issued 352 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020/ Main feature of the short term is an elongating cold front that will bring chance to likely pops of showers to the CWA into early afternoon, primarily in N GA. We start off with high pressure over the Northern Plains and ridging all the was south into the Mississippi Valley and into the local area.
This will draw slightly warmer air into the high plains resulting in lows mainly down into the 30s(F). Despite the weak cold front pushing through western Kansas early Monday, look for afternoon highs up into the 60s(F).
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 61 40 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 57 38 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 58 38 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 54 34 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 TN.
This will draw slightly warmer air into the high plains resulting in lows only down into the 30s(F). Despite the weak cold front pushing through western Kansas early Monday, look for afternoon highs up into the 60s(F). For the first half of the work week a slow warming trend is expected as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and out into the Plains.
High pressure will bring a strong warming trend over the next few days with temperatures near record highs for the middle of the week. The warmup that began today will continue the next couple of days with high temperatures peaking around 15 degrees warmer than average for mid November.
Clear skies and cooler temperatures will prevail tonight. /Issued 231 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020/ Upper trough axis and attendant sfc cold front now quickly pushing eastward across the CWA and what was a fine convective shower line approaching from AL has become just an area of isolated sprinkles as the moisture diffuses and elongates away from the greater forcing to the north. Mostly clear skies to follow with ridge dominated regime setting up for majority of fcst remainder this week. Staying cooler Monday afternoon with only low 60s in most of north GA.
Still, the light winds and generally clear skies suggest the cooler guidance blend plus bias correction might work best. A backdoor cold front will move into ncntl Nebraska Monday night.
Much cooler and drier air will filter in behind a cold front forecast to move south of the Alabama coast by late this afternoon, and south of the Florida coast early this evening.
A narrow low-level jet will develop tonight near KCDS, with around 30 knots of LLWS in the lowest 500 ft AGL from around 16/08-15Z.
434 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Isolated showers will remain possible overnight as strong wind tapers off as low pressure move east of the region. A rain and snow mix will be possible with a mid week low pressure system. The cold front is through most of the region, which is shunting the main line of showers and its convectively-driven downdrafts to the east.
534 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 (This evening through Monday) In the wake of the cold frontal passage last night, a much cooler and drier airmass is over our area today. An upper level ridge will build into the southwestern US and move westward through Texas into the midweek.
Northwest flow will prevail on Tue as a ridge builds to the west. The ridge will move over the Northern plains Tue night into Wed, offering a nice boost to afternoon temps into the 40s. A dry cold frontal passage Wed night should only result in Thu being a few degrees cooler.
Boxell (Issued 234 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020) Tonight through Monday night: Strong winds will begin to wind down from west to east later this afternoon and into the evening as low pressure pulls away from the area. Clouds will hang on into the evening, with clearing skies then likely tonight as high pressure moves into the area. Should be enough sunshine in the south to see temps return to around normal, with temps a few degrees cooler to the north.
As a result, have gone a little cooler with the guidance for overnight temperatures. Look for lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s, with a few locations in the lower 40s. There is a small chance we could drop temperatures closer to the freezing mark in a few locations so be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation.
812 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 A cold front will sweep east of the area this evening.
Strong low pressure was just east of Lake Superior this afternoon with gusty west/northwest winds and areas of light snow or flurries in its wake. An upper ridge will build to the west with high pressure developing at the surface.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 40 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 57 38 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 58 37 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 53 34 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 0.
In fact, it's not impossible that more rural low-lying areas could reach the freezing mark briefly prior to sunrise Monday. The mention of frost has been expanded slightly in accordance with cooler forecast temperatures.
A cool night is on tap tonight as strong high pressure builds in over the region. As the high settles in the winds will become light and variable overnight and this will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s for most of the area. /15/ Quiet weather will prevail through the week as the region will remain under high pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft.
A cool night is on tap tonight as strong high pressure builds in over the region. As the high settles in the winds will become light and variable overnight and this will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s for most of the area. /15/ Quiet weather will prevail through the week as the region will remain under high pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft. /28/ 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this morning as a cold front begins to move out of the area. Strong high pressure will build into the region this afternoon with gusty northerly winds.
With the departure of this morning's surface cold front, we now enter into a period of cooler, drier, and generally pleasant weather that should continue well into the upcoming week. Look for overnight lows around 15 degrees lower than yesterday across the board, with some portions of the northern counties potentially even seeing the high 30s just before sunrise tomorrow. Nearly chamber of commerce weather this week with high pressure dominating and keeping it pleasant.
Chambers Lee-side troughing over the plains today has kept tight pressure gradient along the foothills. High pressure ridging begins to build into the region Monday resulting in much lighter winds for the foothills and plains along with a warming trend.
903 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Isolated showers will remain possible overnight as strong wind tapers off with an exiting cold front. A rain and snow mix will be possible with a mid week low pressure system. Precipitation will mainly fall as rain, though cooler air filtering in may create a rain/snow mix early Monday morning. The higher terrain of eastern Tucker County will better allow for continued mixing of the strong jet to the sfc, allowing for advisory-level winds through Monday morning.
As for the rest of tonight, expect the ongoing showers to gradually end by midnight with some low clouds and patchy fog possibly developing during the pre-dawn hours ahead of an approaching cold front which will be moving into the Nature Coast counties after midnight, with the front then approaching the Tampa Bay area by sunrise, and then continuing south into southwest Florida during Monday afternoon. As mentioned some low clouds/patchy fog will be possible overnight with even a few additional showers possible early on Monday morning ahead of the front, then drier and cooler air will filter into the forecast area on an increasing north to northeast wind flow during Monday afternoon and night.
High pressure will build in from the west overnight.
Very windy conditions persisted across the higher terrain as well as along much of the I-25 corridor today, with frequent gusts to 35 to 45 mph. The strong winds helped boost temps today into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to near 70F across the plains as of 3 pm. The pressure gradient begins to relax this evening as an upper ridge starts to strengthen over the desert southwest. Tomorrow, look for highs in the 50s for the high valleys and 60s across the plains.
/Issued 138 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ A sunny and seasonally cool day is underway, with northwest winds remaining a bit gusty behind last nights cold front.
This will gradually clear out through the night as a cold front currently working its way through the area pushes by. Cold front is expected to push through the region later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Much drier air will quickly move in, along with cooler temperatures. By Monday morning many locations will be in the upper 40s across our AL/GA counties with temps in the low 50s across the FL Big Bend and south-central GA. High temperatures Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday highs.
537 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2020 Wind gusts have fallen below Warning criteria across the Front Range and northern Foothills, and we've allowed the High Wind Warnings to expire. However the higher mountains and areas near the Wyoming border have been near high wind criteria at times, along with a couple mountain wave hot spots. It will still be windy in the same areas, but less, and areas on the plains away from the foothills and Cheyenne ridge should have fairly light winds. Any snow should just be orographic flurries on the ridges.
322 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Cold front is pushing through the near coastal waters at this time with very dry continental air advecting into the area this afternoon. Lows the next couple of nights should easily reach the lower to mid 40s inland and the mid 50s closer to marine influences.
402 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Great Lakes region with w/nw flow aloft extending westward through the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge extends across the western Dakotas with pressure falls along the Rocky Mountain front. Fast moving short wave embedded in the flow aloft pushes the next surface trof through tonight and Monday, with some windy conditions on the western SD plains on Monday.
934 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Isolated showers will remain possible overnight as strong wind tapers off with an exiting cold front. A rain and snow mix will be possible with a mid week low pressure system. Precipitation will mainly fall as rain, though cooler air filtering in may create a rain/snow mix early Monday morning. The higher terrain of eastern Tucker County will better allow for continued mixing of the strong jet to the sfc, allowing for advisory-level winds through Monday morning.
336 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Winds are gradually decreasing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient continues to relax behind yesterdays cold front. with most locations climbing into the lower to mid 50s the past few hours. expect west northwesterly flow aloft as an area of low pressure moves onshore across the west coast.
520 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Winds are gradually decreasing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient continues to relax behind yesterdays cold front. with most locations climbing into the lower to mid 50s the past few hours. expect west northwesterly flow aloft as an area of low pressure moves onshore across the west coast.
However the higher mountains and areas near the Wyoming border have been near high wind criteria at times, along with a couple mountain wave hot spots. It will still be windy in the same areas, but less, and areas on the plains away from the foothills and Cheyenne ridge should have fairly light winds. Any snow should just be orographic flurries on the ridges.
629 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 A cold front will sweep east of the area this evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Clear skies are expected overnight and on Monday as high pressure builds into the region. /issued 235 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ Wx map shows strong cold front extending across the coastal waters.
701 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 A cold front will sweep east of the area this evening.
/issued 204 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ A cold front in the wake of the system that brought all the winds yesterday has resulted in clear skies and cooler temperatures today. Southerly return flow and building high pressure will usher in above normal temperatures to kick off the week, with highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area.
509 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure settled across the region.
713 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Isolated showers will remain possible overnight as strong wind tapers off as a cold front exits the region. A rain and snow mix will be possible with a mid week low pressure system. Showers will mainly stay as rain, though cooler air filtering in by Monday morning may create a rain/snow mix. The higher terrain of eastern Tucker County will better allow for continued mixing of the strong jet to the sfc, which will keep advisory-level winds possible until early Monday morning.
646 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 [Through Tonight] Cold front will slowly move southeast across forecast area through midnight, with isolated to scattered showers ahead of the boundary. High pressure will build from the northwest overnight, allowing skies to have a clearing trend from the north.
Lingering cloud cover and light rain have diminished/moved east of the mid TN Valley this Sun afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Cooler/drier air should then spread into the area later tonight, as high pressure out of the srn Plains begins to build ewd into much of the region. Quiet, tranquil and near seasonal wx conditions/temps should then prevail heading into the new work week, as high pressure becomes reinforced out of the NW. Afternoon highs both Mon/Tue look to trend in the lower 60s/near 60F, while lows Mon night fall more into the mid/upper 30s range. Near stagnant conditions should again result in afternoon highs in the lower 60s Wed/Thu, before a slight warming trend begins near the end of the work week. A light freeze is possible Tue night, as lows drop into the lower/mid 30s for most locations.
The low-level jet is gradually intensifying over KCDS, and LLWS of around 30 knots in the lowest 500 ft AGL is expected to develop between 16/08-15Z Monday morning.
222 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Aloft, we remain in quiet northwesterly flow on the back side of an upper trough that is centered over New England. This quiet weather pattern will continue through most of the week as upper level ridging builds in from the west. Temperatures should approach 60 degrees this afternoon, although there is a little uncertainty on this as highs yesterday ended up a little cooler than expected.
914 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Cooler and drier air has begun to filter into the area, and will result in a much cooler airmass than we experienced 24 hours ago. Would not be surprised to see a few areas of frost, especially in the higher terrain. Quiet, tranquil and near seasonal wx conditions/temps should then prevail heading into the new work week, as high pressure becomes reinforced out of the NW. Afternoon highs both Mon/Tue look to trend in the lower 60s/near 60F, while lows Mon night fall more into the mid/upper 30s range. Near stagnant conditions should again result in afternoon highs in the lower 60s Wed/Thu, before a slight warming trend begins near the end of the work week. A light freeze is possible Tue night, as lows drop into the lower/mid 30s for most locations.
An upper level high pressure ridge will move into New Mexico tonight. And a minor push of slightly cooler air will settle into the area this afternoon and evening with light northerly winds trending east and southeast this evening.
1023 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Great Lakes region with w/nw flow aloft extending westward through the Pac NW. At the surface, ridge extends across the western Dakotas with pressure falls along the Rocky Mountain front. Fast moving short wave embedded in the flow aloft pushes the next surface trof through tonight and Monday, with some windy conditions on the western SD plains on Monday.
A broad trough will hang over the northeastern CONUS through the next 36 hours. Temperatures will peak in the lower or middle 40s.
The band will shift north as a warm front later tonight and Monday morning and will spread light rain and snow as it goes. Temps will be warmer Monday after the warm front passes.
Light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass in place will result in another cool night tonight, but most areas look to remain above freezing.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 40 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 38 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 37 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 34 52 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Cooler and drier air has begun to filter into the area, and will result in a much cooler airmass than we experienced 24 hours ago. Would not be surprised to see a few areas of frost, especially in the higher terrain. Quiet, tranquil and near seasonal wx conditions/temps should then prevail heading into the new work week, as high pressure becomes reinforced out of the NW. Afternoon highs both Mon/Tue look to trend in the lower 60s/near 60F, while lows Mon night fall more into the mid/upper 30s range. Near stagnant conditions should again result in afternoon highs in the lower 60s Wed/Thu, before a slight warming trend begins near the end of the work week. A light freeze is possible Tue night, as lows drop into the lower/mid 30s for most locations.
As this upper wave passes a surface boundary/weak cold front will cross southwest Kansas.
254 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure is located over East Texas early this morning and this feature has brought clear skies, light winds, very dry air and chilly overnight low temperatures. The cool start to the day will be short lived the sun will warm things up rather quickly and the dry air mass will heat efficiently with afternoon MaxT values reaching the lower 70's.