Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. BUT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
Satellite more or less confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4 Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). On Tue the theta-e ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. From Wed onward it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple digit heat across the plains with records possible.
THE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL THREAT OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES A BIT AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA.
1137 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
929 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH. AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND ENSEMBLE WRF FROM NCAR SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP. MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT.
ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY.
845 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.
BUT INSTABILITY AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SRN IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH WITH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING A WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE SHOULD ELSEWHERE SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
719 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.
731 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
1151 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
950 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS CREPT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERALL BACKED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING.
A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
1241 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. AND IN THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 65 95 70 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 64 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 62 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 60 88 63 / 0 0 10 20.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
Closer inspection of surface data and model output point more towards a weak backdoor cold front slipping southward from MN and passing through the CWA overnight. Today will feel rather balmy as highs the next two days will struggle to get above the freezing mark south of I-70. As an upper trough exits the eastern U.
BUT STILL EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
UPPER LOW TRAPPED UNDER REX BLOCK WILL DRIFT ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIVINGSTON/BILLINGS TO REALIZE SOME OF THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND THE CWA ARE ENJOYING. GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO NOW BE THUR THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING NEGATIVELY TITLED AND SPLITTING TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST PUSHES ONSHORE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN RETURN AS SOON AS SAT NIGHT IN THE FASTER EURO SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW DIVING S-SE OUT OF CANADA TO OUR EAST. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAXT VALUES ON SUN GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN PROGGED COLD FRONT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOTED ABOVE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MID WEEK. BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS TODAY.
MODEL RH FIELDS DRY OUT AT 925 HPA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
Compact short wave trough translating sewrd across nern OK at this time. An associated weak cold front will pass through nrn sites tonight and srn sites Sunday morning. Light westerly wind will become northerly on Sunday as high pressure builds into the Southern Plains behind the front. Cold front sitting northwest of the forecast area will continue its approach, moving through at least the northwestern half to two-thirds by morning.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED. THIS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WE WILL KEEP THE LOW TEMPS AS IS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID 40S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
Winds will be N-NW around 10 mph following a surface pressure trough that moved through the area overnight. Cool air in place will keep the temps chilly through tomorrow, with high pressure building into the region.
A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER RESIDES OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON TODAY. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST LOOKS EVEN SHARPER THIS RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER SREF GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HAVE KEPT THE NORTH A BIT WARMER BASED ON ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER. NO FLURRIES ADDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOIST LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THOUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL EAST. WHILE THE WEST MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD EAST. EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED THE TROUGH TO HOLD ON LONGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
Area ASOS and KY Mesonet stations have dropped into the lower-middle 30s with the typical colder locations already in the upper 20s. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 20s in most locations with the more sheltered locations dropping into the upper teens to the lower 20s. The low clouds may linger or even deepen across the Bluegrass region Sunday night as the low-level fetch remains off the Great Lakes. A time height cross section for Lexington shows the low-level saturation increasing to between 150-200 mb going into early Monday morning, all warmer than -10C.
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SNOW PACK AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 500HPA TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A 250HPA JET STREAK MOVES SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THINKING THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
Compact upper low continues to drop southeastward over western Kansas, the main impacts of which have been to boost highs a bit with better mixing, and to drop dewpoints as you go west and mix into the drier air. High pressure at the surface continues to drop southward from the high Northern Plains into the Central Plains tonight and into Sunday. As the front comes in, think lows across the far southeastern counties will hold in the lower 20s while the northern counties drop into the teens. Cold advection continues tomorrow but in combination with mostly clear skies still think highs should make it into the lower/middle 30s tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise a cooler day in store with a modified Canadian airmass in place and readings only peaking in the low to middle 30s.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING IN DRY WEATHER AND COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
KBRO DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD PUSHING OFFSHORE AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE PASSAGE AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A 500 MB TROUGH. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. NO RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE IN EFFECT. WEAK 500 MB RIDGING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE BRO CWFA BUT SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DO START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY NEED TO GO WARMER. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SNOW PACK IN PLACE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MOST AREAS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE FREEZING. STILL BELIEVE THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE SOME INSOLATION OVERNIGHT AND THAT THE COLD SINKS WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS READINGS. BUT NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON THIS THINKING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD IS NOT A SOLID DECK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE RIDGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF SUBSTANCE WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
THE CLOUDS COULD CAUSE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. AND PERHAPS COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COULD PRODUCE CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. A FEW MODELS MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY 6Z MONDAY. HIGHS COULD BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE SERIOUS COLD AIR STILL UP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPS CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) A longwave trof centered thru eastern NOAM is producing NW flow aloft across the area. Models maintain this regime with some deepening of the longwave as a short wave trof digs into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region today. This will help bring a secondary cold front through the region this morning with low level winds veering to N/NW and good CAA in its wake.
310 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATES TO NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. H5 UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE MET GUIDANCE WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV AND ECS DATA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
4KFT BELOW FRZ AND WARMER LAYER ABOVE THEN DRY. AN UPPER LOW OVER N OK AND ONE OVER CENTRAL TX WILL BOTH MOVE E BRINGING SKC 11-15Z. /ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER-LOW TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REBUILD BEHIND IT. A FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
1238 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 BKN MVFR STRATUS ALREADY FILLING BACK INTO AREA ALONG PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH MORE TO COME AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS FLOW VEERS TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS BACK IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE ONCE SOLID OVC AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND COLD FRONT OOZES BACK SOUTH INTO AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO PEEL OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD SURGE ON TARGET TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE/TROUGH WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT THE ACTIVITY. LARGE ANTICYCLONE SPREADING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. FLOW TURNS EVEN A BIT MORE NW ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A TROUGH. MORE NOTABLE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN NORTHERN PA FALLING TO AROUND -20C MON AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER ALL OF THIS ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN BY MONDAY AS TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS. CHILLY LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN STORE FOR SUN NIGHT NORTH OF I-80.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE THIN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOWS IN THE WEST SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES. 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO MONTANA. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST AND AN INCREASING CIRRUS DECK WILL LIMIT FULL SURFACE HEATING.
MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROFS TOMORROW. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCOMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED TROF WILL BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS ARE A BIT COOLER AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE.
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging pushing slowly east across the Western High Plains through Sunday night. Combined with a much drier air mass already situated across the high plains, western Kansas will remain dry through the period. Dry conditions will continue early in the period as medium range models indicate upper level ridging edging slowly east across the Central Plains Monday.
With the extent of clearing, a fairly moist boundary layer and light winds, patchy fog or freezing fog is expected to develop across the northern third of our area tonight, and possibly as far south as Coleman and San Angelo by early Sunday morning. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley, to the lower 30s farther south and east. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
304 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.
404 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POURED QUICKLY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMOVE THIS INVERSION TODAY AS WELL AS SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE LOWERING OF THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE 850 RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO DIMINISH AND THEN END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH THEN END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH A TURN OF THE WINDS TO THE WEST.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND FAVORED COOL SPOTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO.
COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
319 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FL COAST. A WAVE WILL EXTEND WEST FROM THIS LOW AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ALONG IT FROM THE GULF. THE LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD LONG ENOUGH FOR LOWS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
PREVAILING SHRA AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR E AND PUSHES FRONT THROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WEAKENED THE HIGH THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THE LAST FEW DAYS.
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
316 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFYING IN THE DVN CWA. THE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO WESTERN IA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -10C OR SO. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 20S.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES /KEEPING US CLOSE TO NORMAL/ AND KEEP OUR LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WA WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN MT SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT PROGGING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
259 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE ONTARIO/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE ARE NOT ANY FLURRIES INITIALLY OCCURRING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT THESE START TO OCCUR ALONG THE MINNESOTA/CANADIAN BORDER AS THE FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO INCREASE.
A dry cold front will take shape and make an early day passage today, as an upper level low slides into/across the lower Mississippi river valley.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAIRLY MILD AND IN THE 20S.