Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will provide warmer and tranquil conditions for much of the week.
Clear skies prevail across Northern California as high pressure builds across the region. With a warming airmass, temperatures this afternoon are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across the forecast area.
Although the mid-upper low heads east today, it still looks like it gets hung up a bit over Iowa tonight. this cold front tonight could be a sneaker with a quick hit of an inch of snow in our northern fringe.
Surface cold front nearly through all TAF sites as of 06/00z this evening with winds becoming WNW.
Expect the high winds to slowly decrease later this afternoon and evening as the strongest subsidence moves out of the area and airmass decouples by this evening. Still expect winds in the 15 to 30 mph on the northeast plains overnight tonight given the still modest gradient and closer proximity to the upper trof. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side with readings remaining in the lower to mid 40s.
As a cold front approaches from the northwest tonight, clouds will continue to thicken with bases lowering to MVFR/IFR categories through the night. Boundary layer conditions continue to slowly moisten ahead of approaching cold front from the northwest. The cold front is the southern part of an occluded system tracking eastward over the middle part of the country.
Clouds will drop southeastward into our area on Tuesday as an upper level trough drops southeastward through the region. As the freezing level lowers the rain showers may change over to snow showers or at least a few flurries Tuesday night.
614 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 Unsettled weather expected through the week as low pressure brings periods of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to the region. but relatively warm cloud tops (-10C or warmer) and wet-bulbing at onset within the currently very dry low levels could result in broader potential for light freezing rain/drizzle. Temperatures especially in eastern Ohio should rise a few degrees toward daybreak as a warm front approaches from the west. The main forecast challenge with this system is ptype at the onset across eastern Ohio and the higher terrain of West Virginia and Maryland.
Therefore both the High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning have been cancelled. The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region. Winds will abruptly strengthen by ~15Z Tue (a few hours after sunrise) as mixing resumes amidst strong low/mid-level NW flow on the western periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains as it meanders southeast into IA/IL during the day.
Negative tilt trough making inroads into Iowa. Surface and ground temps remain above freezing and have largely abated any travel impacts. Cooling of the atmospheric column should result in accumulating snow occurring in the highway 20 corridor with 1 to 2 inches possible east of Dubuque. Right now we have light snow moving back into the northwest half of the area through sunrise as the atmosphere resaturates and the upper low moves out of central Iowa. If the atmosphere saturates slower or the upper low is slower then the possibility exists that the second half of tonight could be dry. Forcing from the lows combined with limited heating is expected to generate showers that increase in areal coverage through the afternoon.
Upper high pressure that is currently located over the Great Basin today will begin to shift eastward across the forecast area on Tuesday.
547 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 A broken line of convection continues to rapidly push E out of Deep E TX and across the Srn/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA along and just ahead of a cold front, and should clear the MLU terminal by 02Z. Even as the AC cigs clear later this evening, areas of cirrus will persist across much of the area beneath the digging trough over the Cntrl Plains, but should diminish from W to E after 06Z. /issued 355 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ The cold front continues to make solid ground through our cwa and stretches from Nacogdoches to Shreveport to Magnolia and should be through all but a handful of our SE parishes by sundown. A 1019mb high pressure center will build in for a nice evening with clouds clearing from NW to SE overnight.
316 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region. Winds will abruptly strengthen by ~15Z Tue (a few hours after sunrise) as mixing resumes amidst strong low/mid-level NW flow on the western periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains as it meanders southeast into IA/IL during the day.
520 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Deep low pressure wrapping northward near southeast SD this afternoon.
TFJ With the overall storm circulation moving further southeast, the the axis of low pressure stretches both upstream and downstream through the entire central and high plains region. Finally, by Tuesday afternoon, enough of the low pressure energy will have moved southeast, and enough of the high pressure ridge will have moved toward our area from the southwest to allow for warmer and calm weather conditions to begin to spread over the region.
Tomorrow will be a little warmer, in the low to middle 60s.
Low level moisture still wrapping into and north of the low, fueling the sloping frontogenetic lift (highlighted in north-south running x-sections) and lingering low level thermodynamics. Wind remains a factor this evening, blowing 20-30 mph with gusts to 40, but should slacken overnight as the low approaches, lowering the threat for blowing/drifting in the wind prone areas (southeast Minnesota/ne ia/ridge tops). The GFS and EC still favoring generally northwest flow into the upcoming weekend, with perhaps some ridge building by Sun/Mon. The northwest flow will also usher in some cooler, below normals temperatures into the weekend, with perhaps some rebound to seasonable normals by the end of the weekend.
815 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Downgraded the High Wind Warning that was in effect over parts of western South Dakota to a Wind Advisory. 20z surface analysis had low over southwest MN with inverted trough into western ND. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SD. Light upslope snow continues over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Tonight/Tuesday, upper low will spin into western IA by 12z and then take off to the east. A couple of weak waves may product some wind shifts, but general trend will be warmer and drier.
834 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Showers have moved out of the area this evening as the cold front has now pushed into eastern Illinois. Clouds have also moved out of the area behind the cold front. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. Clouds will drop southeastward into our area on Tuesday as an upper level trough drops southeastward through the region. As the freezing level lowers the rain showers may change over to snow showers or at least a few flurries Tuesday night.
Looking into tomorrow, we will get into the dry slot as potent upper low approaches from the northwest. Model proximity soundings show that we'll have very good mixing in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Precipitation will end quickly from west to east tomorrow morning as a dry slot that's part of an upper level low (ULL) over the Midwest works in. Should be a pretty nice day with temperatures climbing into the low 60s for most areas under lots of sunshine.
The main cold front extends from central MO southward through western AR. Under mostly sunny skies, highs will reach into the low 60s with lower humidity values. A stronger fropa will occur Tuesday night with an upper trough amplifying across the eastern U. The trough will not be entirely distrubance free.
432 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region. Winds will abruptly strengthen by ~15Z Tue (a few hours after sunrise) as mixing resumes amidst strong low/mid-level NW flow on the western periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains as it meanders southeast into IA/IL during the day.
1003 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 Unsettled weather expected through the week as low pressure brings periods of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to the region. but relatively warm cloud tops (-10C or warmer) and wet-bulbing at onset within the currently very dry low levels could result in broader potential for light freezing rain/drizzle. Temperatures especially in eastern Ohio should rise a few degrees toward daybreak as a warm front approaches from the west. The main forecast challenge with this system is ptype at the onset across eastern Ohio and the higher terrain of West Virginia and Maryland.
The HRRR model has a pretty good handle on the timing of the cold front that will move across the Houston metro area between 00-03Z and off the coast between 04-05Z. Surface analysis at 21Z has cold front from Caldwell/College Station to Crockett with a line of showers and thunderstorms along it.
Precipitation will end quickly from west to east tomorrow morning as a dry slot that's part of an upper level low (ULL) over the Midwest works in. Should be a pretty nice day with temperatures climbing into the low 60s for most areas under lots of sunshine.
Satellite imagery and surface obs have shown a low pressure system moving N/NW into the northern Plains states today. The showers that moved through the area this morning occurred along the warm front associated with this system. We start Tuesday with the cold front just to the east of the area. The airmass behind this front is rather dry and with good mixing and clear skies tomorrow think that temps may actually end up warmer Tuesday than today. Highs in the low to mid 60s are possible for much of the area. The upper level system that was situated over the northern US begins to drop S/SE through the day Tuesday and will push a secondary cold front into the area late Tuesday evening.
With the very dry air in place, temps will be chilly first thing in the morning, dipping down to around freezing. scattered mid level clouds look to move into the region as the low pressure system to the north begins to drop southeast and approach the CWA.
As high pressure settles into the region tonight, winds will generally become calm through the early morning hours. /Issued 529 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the region. /Issued 242 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ /Tonight/ The cold front and rain has now moved south of the region, and a tranquil and cool night is expected. A few locations across the northwestern areas of the CWA may fall to near freezing, but these temperatures should only occur for a few hours around daybreak.
The precipitation could end as a brief period of freezing drizzle in the early morning hours.
High pressure covers the Great Basin region for the next couple of days.
Cooler and drier air moves in during the overnight hours.
Weak weather disturbances in northwest flow aloft will bring scattered snow showers to the area the rest of this afternoon and early evening, followed by drier conditions through mid-week as an upper-level ridge builds over the area.
scattered mid level clouds look to move into the region as the low pressure system to the north begins to drop southeast and approach the CWA.
So the variable amounts will continue, not everyone is going to get the higher end totals, and in some instances they may be just a few miles away. The event should begin to diminish slowly from the Lake of the Woods region into the highway 2 corridor later tonight, taking the longest to end across the far south and southwest FA. expect high pressure to build in with lighter winds and more tranquil conditions.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located along the east coast of the United States overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.
With winds and clouds they should remain in the lower teens for overnight lows or perhaps upper single digits. An inverted trough setup over central North Dakota was delivering heavy snow across the state.
The cold air will slowly modify over the next few days as the upper level gradient decreases and a ridge moves toward the region. The ridge remains dominate through the middle of the week before becoming more zonal by the end of the week.
The only changes made this evening were to include areas of freezing fog around Truckee and in the Sierra Valley.
529 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the region. /Issued 242 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ /Tonight/ The cold front and rain has now moved south of the region, and a tranquil and cool night is expected. A few locations across the northwestern areas of the CWA may fall to near freezing, but these temperatures should only occur for a few hours around daybreak.
The low that crossed just north of us yesterday is meandering around the Cornhusker state today with northwest flow noted in its wake. As this low moves northeast later this week, split zonal flow will briefly develop in its wake until a powerhouse jet of 140+ kts dives south from the Aleutians and carves out a new eastern Pacific trough. After a week mostly devoid of significant sfc frontal activity, this clipper will likely push a decent cold front through the area this weekend.
As for winds, our +20mb gradient across the state diminishes to around 15mb as the low sinks into Iowa and slowly fills. It could produce some very light freezing drizzle or isolated light snow showers. This is especially true as we move into the weekend when daytime highs will climb above freezing and some of the snowpack will melt.
725 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 23z sfc analysis shows a warm front lifting through central and eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, with light winds, dewpoints are quite dry in the teens northeast to the lower 30s in the southwest, while most places are somewhere in the 20s. This dryness will impact the ability of the rain to make it to the ground later this evening and overnight ahead of the system's cold front as the column starts to moisten up. Closer to the surface a warm frontal boundary will pass through the area overnight, bringing with it a likely chance of showers for most locations in our forecast area. Not far behind this feature a cold frontal boundary will enter the Commonwealth from the west during the day Tuesday and speed through eastern Kentucky late Tuesday evening.
The low pressure over the northern plains will continue to move east. The high-resolution models do show some activity developing this evening, but not much in the line of QPF.
Overnight lows are now expected to range from the lower 40s across the Cumberland Plateau Region to the mid 40s elsewhere. MVFR will be common through the night as scattered showers impact the area ahead of a cold front. After 18Z, an approaching low pressure system from the northwest will begin to create gusty WSW winds.
825 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Temperatures will steadily warm through the week as high pressure builds across the region. IR imagery this evening showed some partially thin cirrus spreading into the central deserts from the west and surface dewpoints over the lower deserts were very low, ranging from single digits to the teens. Strong ridging aloft is expected to build northward into he western CONUS as a deep long-wave upper trof digs southward into the central/eastern parts of the CONUS. The only restraint to our temperatures will be considerable mid and high cloudiness that is expected to be pushed into the region from a deep trofing over the eastern Pacific.
Mainly dry NW flow aloft will become WNW aloft overnight as a cold front with prefrontal convection moves into southern MS and AL late tonight. Lows will drop into the upper 40s across inland cooler spots with lower to mid 50s common across most of east central Florida.
650 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight. Rain is likely on Tuesday as a cold front crosses the area.
A weak ridge is bringing clear, quiet weather through tomorrow. Tuesday afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than today. This low will deepen and move closer to shore tomorrow. cloud cover associated with the low will keep temperatures mostly above freezing west of the Cascades Tuesday night.
Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, but humidity will once again be very low and afternoon winds likely a little stronger. Have again populated the dewpoint grids for tomorrow afternoon with the ECMWF at the lower end of the guidance range.
20z surface analysis had low over southwest MN with inverted trough into western ND. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SD. Light upslope snow continues over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Tonight/Tuesday, upper low will spin into western IA by 12z and then take off to the east. A couple of weak waves may product some wind shifts, but general trend will be warmer and drier.
The highest speeds are forecast for central and south central Kansas.
An upper low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures to the area this week along with chances for rain and some light snow over the next few days. Model average temperatures in the low 30s should work for lows.
Still seeing some dry air near the dendritic growth zone, however with a brief period of sleet/freezing rain in the transition zones. Depending on overall movement of the upper trough/circulation we should see light snow taper into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures should be limited to 28 to 33 most areas Tuesday afternoon as cooler air invades the area in the wake of the surface occlusion and fresh snow.
513 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 20z surface analysis had low over southwest MN with inverted trough into western ND. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SD. Light upslope snow continues over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Tonight/Tuesday, upper low will spin into western IA by 12z and then take off to the east. A couple of weak waves may product some wind shifts, but general trend will be warmer and drier.
Weak low pressure aloft will remain over the region tonight.
Deamplified upper level ridge extends from Ohio River Valley with axis extending southward toward the FL Panhandle. An upper low centered over Iowa. The cold front will move southeastward overnight and extend from northern GA into the western FL Panhandle during the early daylight hours Tuesday morning.
However, round two with this system will arrive this evening as the upper low wobbles through the state over the next 24 hours. Strong forcing will push across the state overnight and despite the low level drying from the west, the lift will be sufficient for additional snowfall spreading into the west this evening and eventually much of the north into central Iowa as well.
Sufficient mixing will take place shortly after sunrise and this will allow increasing low-level winds ahead of an approaching cold front to be transported to the surface. The aforementioned front, currently analyzed across the Lower Mississippi Valley, will approach our area tomorrow night.
Wind will go light and variable overnight before switching to the north around 15 knots tomorrow afternoon behind another cold front. /issued 312 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ The cold front that pushed through this morning will help overnight lows be cooler than recent nights with most areas seeing lows below freezing. A second shot of reinforcing cold air is expected to push through the FA by tomorrow afternoon allowing for an even cooler day tomorrow.
North to northeasterly winds behind a cold front can be expected through this evening and overnight at area TAF sites. Upper air analysis from this morning showed a mid level trough across the central US with zonal westerly flow across south central Texas. At 2 pm this afternoon, the surface cold front was essentially along an Austin to Boerne to Uvalde line, and moving southeast. High pressure and dry air will filter in to the region in wake of the passing cold front, with northerly winds persisting.
859 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure continues moving away from the region as a cold front moves through the Gulf Coast States.
The upper low over northeast Nebraska this afternoon is forecast to move northeast some tonight then drop southeast into northeast Missouri. Strong winds will develop across Kansas on Tuesday as the western portion of the trough moves through during the day. Early Tuesday some light mixed rain and snow will be possible along the Nebraska border as energy rotates around the trough and clips far northern Kansas. Several midlevel closed low pressures will rotate over the Great Lakes region keeping us in northwest flow aloft.
920 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 A cold front has just moved through Memphis and will continue moving east during the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be a little warmer, in the low to middle 60s.
718 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 With the cold front south of San Antonio and storm potential decreasing due to the lack of daytime heating, lowered PoPs for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. Also edited T and Td grids to account for the position of the cold front. North to northeasterly winds behind a cold front can be expected through this evening and overnight at area TAF sites. Upper air analysis from this morning showed a mid level trough across the central US with zonal westerly flow across south central Texas. At 2 pm this afternoon, the surface cold front was essentially along an Austin to Boerne to Uvalde line, and moving southeast. High pressure and dry air will filter in to the region in wake of the passing cold front, with northerly winds persisting.
1014 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
Ridge axis across the waters will provide a generally southerly wind flow 10 knots or less, except becoming onshore along the coast Sat afternoon. With the ridge position across the waters, the long easterly fetch over the Atlantic looks limited in our waters, and we might not get the 2-3 foot seas the models show.
High pressure will remain over the area this evening. Currently, we remain under northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and troughing to our east. Upper level low over northern Manitoba rotating S/WV impulses through our region, with one of these embedded vorticity maximums responsible for the extensive low/mid level clouds over central and eastern areas of the state today. Feel more confident western and south central areas will be on the cooler side. Daytime highs will warm with WAA west and south into the low/mid 80s thanks to upper level ridging shifting east into the Rockies.
A weak low pressure system will move over the region overnight and then east of the area Saturday afternoon. It will be followed by weak high pressure aloft Saturday night.
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough swinging through western Nebraska this afternoon will move east of the area by this evening. Lows tonight very close to previous forecast from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
Due to the winds remaining from the south and somewhat elevated, expect the temperatures to slowly fall through the overnight period and fall into the lower 70s by sunrise on Saturday. The precip forecast is a bit uncertain as guidance struggles on the evolution of a line of convection along a cold front to our north. The cold front stretches from near Green Bay, WI south-southwestward into AR and OK. The TN Valley will remain situated on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a weak trough making its way into the MS Valley.