Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy west winds have been a little slow to migrate across the forecast area this afternoon likely due to the mixing being limited by the higher clouds that are more extensive than initially expected today. Breezy conditions are still expected to continue to expand across mainly the northern sections of the forecast area in the clearing area in the wake of the higher clouds, but may be coming up against the developing night time inversion as we approach sunset. With cooler air moving in overnight, expect high temperatures only reaching into the middle 60s on Friday. Winds are also expected to be lower as high pressure moves in at the surface.
Low-level air mass remains cool and quite dry as high pressure has been slow to retreat into the Appalachians, and return flow has yet to set up. Warm front taking shape over the Plains will bring increasing clouds and increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley tonight, but not before a quick drop in temps after sunset. Expect early mins, just slightly below freezing in the Bluegrass region, followed by steady or even slowly rising temps toward daybreak. Likely to categorical POPs for most of the area during the day on Friday as the cold front moves through.
This could lead to winds as high as 35 mph briefly before the pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure moves in.
The Northern Rockies will remain under the influence of a brief period of high pressure this evening into early Friday resulting in rather pleasant springtime conditions.
Drier air in the northwest wind behind the front will work to push out some of the low level moisture and clear up most of the fog and stratus by Friday morning. /Friday night through Thursday/ Upper level ridge builds over the central tier of the country through the weekend, which will keep temperatures above normal.
355 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Brisk and cold northwest flow pattern, with diminishing lake effect and orographic snow showers will be replaced by high pressure tonight into early Friday.
This allows slightly cooler conditions to sag through the northern zones, knocking a few degrees off max temps today. Mild temps anticipated tonight with an increase in cloud cover before the ridge pumps back up on Friday allowing temps to start climbing back to record levels over the entire forecast area as we head into the weekend.
Plains will flatten an upper ridge which has been over the area.
The cloud cover has kept the temps well above freezing in many areas.
420 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 H5 ridging will move across the Northern Plains tonight with a warm nose of +4 to +12C at H85 pushing into the CWA. Some of that warming will go to continuing to melt snow but that coupled with cloud cover will help keep temps at or above freezing in most areas tonight. Right on the heels of this ridge is a cold front from an associated low crossing Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Brisk winds will continue much of Friday night within cold advection and tight gradient on southwest flank of deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes.
An area of low pressure over southern Saskatchewan will track eastward today. While 850 mb temps are very warm, a deep snowpack and much cooler 925 mb temps should produce highs in the 40s for most locations. Areas west of the Missouri River valley will see much warmer temperatures. Light showers could be possible along the passage of the cold front in central SD.
A warm and dry airmass remains entrenched over Colorado as an upper level ridge slides across the state today. The lee trough of low pressure that has been over the I-25 corridor the past couple days is forecast to shift farther east today, increasing the pressure differences between mountain areas and the plains.
An upper level trough will advect through the region today supporting a cold front through the region with associated gusty NW winds. However, diurnal instability this afternoon and cold front aloft/lsa may provide enough lift for widely sct high based showers far west this afternoon and much of the fa this evening. Flow will remain progressive, but become more amplified in the period, supporting deeper/stronger troughs into the CONUS per active northern PAC flow. This will support a stronger upper level trough into the region this weekend.
Tonight should not be as cold either with the ridge moving east, cloud cover will be present along with southerly boundary layer winds starting to increase low level moisture a little. Thus, although the northeast counties will be close to freezing toward sunrise, I think for the most part, most should remain above freezing tonight.
305 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Light lake effect snow showers will slowly dissipate this afternoon and evening across the area as high pressure builds across the region. Friday will be quiet as high pressure briefly stays around.
With temperatures at or above freezing over the forecast area, have allowed the Freeze Warning to expire. A dry and warmer afternoon is in store for the region with highs expected to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. By Friday night, a cold front will into northern portions of the Mid-South.
208 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure sliding east across the region will give us dry conditions and winds shifting to the south.
An elongated upper level trough stretching from southern Canada to the California coast will maintain a mostly dry and mild southwest flow over Utah early in the week. Cool and unsettled conditions will return midweek as the trough shifts east through the Great Basin.
/issued 1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/ Temperatures have already reached the lower to mid 70s throughout the Mid-South this morning. The upper level ridge continues to slowly move to the east, it has some signs of an omega block-yet the troughs to the east and west aren't strong enough to keep the pattern from moving. The upper ridge currently over the plain states has a northerly flow aloft. Clouds will also be on the increase late in the day as the upper ridge moves to the east.
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Latest 07z surface analysis shows high pressure from Minnesota/Wisconsin to the Central Plain States. Will continue to focus the higher chances of showers/thunderstorms over these areas.
Otherwise, the upper low seen spinning over SE Alberta on water vapor imagery this afternoon, will continue to affect the weather through Tue.
143 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week.
A fairly strong cap, and elevated mixed layer will work to suppress most if not all convection through the day Monday as temperatures climb into the lower 80s in the afternoon.
Expect this low cld deck to persist over the rgv airports over the next few hours resulting in some mvfr ceilings through the early morning. Daytime heating and increasing low level mixture later this morning will likely mix out the low ceilings and patchy fog allowing for a return of vfr conditions. 500 mb ridging will build steadily over the south central plains states and northern mexico increasing subsidence throughout the short term. Since the NAM is the outlier and considering the strength of the 500 mb ridging building over the region will go closer to the drier GFS/ECMWF. Will go closer to the warmer side of temp guidance through today and Monday due to the increasing 1000-500 mb thicknesses.
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure ridge moving across the Miss River Valley this morning. High pressure currently centered near the IA/MO border will shift across IL this afternoon providing clear skies, light northerly winds becoming light and variable, and a warming air mass. Cutoff low expected to form over the mid-Atlantic region tonight, and this will slow the eastward progression of the upper ridge that is currently over the Plains.
The low pressure on the east coast is expected to push moisture into NE TN.
Don't expect dewpoint temperatures to really begin rising until after 12Z Monday so think lows will drop to near dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 50s across most of the area. Southerly flow on the western periphery of the ridge on Monday will begin moistening up the boundary layer.
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A high pressure ridge over the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon will continue to move across the region tonight. The ridge will keep the skies mostly clear with very light and variable winds. By morning, the ridge axis should be much further to the east, resulting in more south/southeasterly turn to the winds. Two upper lows, over the east and west coast remain in place today. with pleasant weather in the middle and warm temperatures continuing to build a thermal ridge in the mid levels over the Plains.
Upper low has moved northeast into Montana. Forecast area under a weak upper level trough pattern with northwest flow aloft.
and Monday Strong high pressure ridge will drift over the western Great Lakes region today into Monday.
131 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A few showers will be possible across the Scioto Valley this afternoon as a low pressure system pushes off to the east.
00z upper-air analysis showed a substantial trough over the western U. with an amplified downstream ridge from the central Plains into Canadian Prairie Provinces. In response, a weak surface wave will develop from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley by 12z Monday, along a cold front advancing east through the northern and central Plains. Despite increasing clouds, we should see slightly warmer temperatures today; in the mid 70s to around 80. Thunderstorms which are expected to develop along the cold front over western Nebraska this afternoon and evening should begin to affect portions of northeast Nebraska late tonight before spreading east and southeast across the remainder of the area Monday morning into afternoon.
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A steep upper level ridge continues to build over Mississippi River Valley as a broad area of high pressure builds at the surface. The dry air associated with this high pressure has left the Mid-South cloud free and kept dewpoints below 50 degrees. The upper level ridge will be stronger and stick around longer than previously forecasted, staying in place through Monday. Return flow from the high will result in increased low level moisture and slightly above average temperatures for work week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Generally a more tranquil period during the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates Texas, deflecting systems into the Central Plains.
Would like to see better agreement between the high resolution short range models concerning where convection will initiate and timing so there is some degree of uncertainty on evolution.
/Tonight/ With upper level ridge still in control today. Trough over the Western Plains will edge east tonight forcing the H850 low level jet axis to also move into western Iowa by 12z. This will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to drift into the region west of US 71 as diminishing CAPE and weaker moisture transport exist on the eastern fringes of the low level jet. Lows tonight will warm to the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s west. Already today H850 subjective analysis shows high-content moisture plume advecting north just east of the Western Plains trough.
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 500mb trough crossing the forecast area this afternoon. Closed low circulating vicinity of the mid Atlantic coast through the period. Overnight lows a bit cooler than normal most areas tonight but a gradual moderation through the rest of the forecast period. Relative humidity values Monday will drop into the low 30s and upper 20s across much of the area.
1101 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Deep southwest flow will remain in place across southern Colorado today and tonight as upper level low pressure shifts slowly from the Pacific Northwest into southern Canada.
208 PM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue over the central California interior for much of this week as an upper level trough resides along the west coast.
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Weak low pressure along the Carolina coast will move slowly northeast. otherwise dry high pressure will build into the region through midweek. A closed upper level low will continue to drop south into the Mid-Atlantic region. The first in a series of short wave disturbances along the periphery of the low will push east of the area, and should bring at least a temporary end to the isolated showers over the northeast Midlands by mid-late afternoon as weak subsidence develops. Another mid level short wave trough moving through tonight. Upper level low along the North Carolina coast Monday. Upper ridge in the midwest moving slowly east.
The surface cold front over the North Central Gulf will push further South and the convection off the Louisiana Coast will follow allowing for clearing skies overnight. An upper level ridge currently over the Midwestern States builds eastward into the region Monday providing deep layer subsidence and warming at all levels.
400 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 At 3 PM, a 1019 MB high pressure system kept skies mainly sunny across Wisconsin. On Monday afternoon, a weakening short wave trough will approach the area from western and northern Minnesota. Besides weakening, this trough will be entering a drier air mass.
342 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Latest water vapor imagery indicates a closed low over southern Alberta with an amplified ridge to our east extending along the Mississippi River Valley. In the lower levels. the 850mb moist axis stretched north from western Texas into the western Dakotas and continues to slowly shift east ahead of the main upper low. 18Z subjective surface analysis showed low pressure centered over Colorado with large ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi River valley. In the meantime, a dryline was noted across the High Plains with an additional weak surface boundary extending across western Nebraska into south central South Dakota along which some convection has initiated in north central Nebraska. primarily after 06Z as vort max associated with trailing upper trough sparks a convective complex over the Black Hills region.
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Today looks to be the last quiet day for a while, thanks to an upper-level ridge overhead, downstream of a large trough over the western U. Subsidence within the ridge will provide mostly sunny skies through the afternoon while return southerly low-level flow allows temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees across most of the forecast area. Upper ridge will shift to the east tonight, allowing southwesterly upper-level flow to develop across the Plains. The first round of thunderstorms may spread into eastern KS and western MO late tonight into Monday morning as convective activity across the High Plains spreads eastward overnight.
Surface wise, a ridge of high pressure extends from the central Gulf of Mexico with a trough of low pressure draped across north central Florida and the adjacent coastal waters.
The highest threat today will be very large hail up to softball size as high MLCAPE values are coupled with 0-6km shear of 50 knots.
The large low pressure system over the NW U. The system's surface cold front was moving across the CO and UT border over NW CO and stretching back to the SW. Aside from wave clouds over ridges the southern half of the forecast area will remain nearly cloudless. Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the period. Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the mean trough during the second half of the week.
High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of the week. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern Great Lakes.
Mid to upper level ridging will still dominate the Southern Plains synoptic pattern through mid-week but Texas will be on the weaker southern edge of its subsidence. the highway for weak westerly disturbances will still be open over eastern Texas. Relatively lower short term precipitation chances are based upon the larger scale influence of the upper ridge and the surface reflection of the southeastern U.
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Weak low pressure along the Carolina coast will move slowly northeast. otherwise dry high pressure will build into the region through midweek. A closed upper level low will continue to drop south into the Mid-Atlantic region. The first in a series of short wave disturbances along the periphery of the low will push east of the area, and should bring at least a temporary end to the isolated showers over the northeast Midlands by mid-late afternoon as weak subsidence develops. Upper level low along the North Carolina coast Monday. Upper ridge in the midwest moving slowly east.
Meanwhile farther south, another coastal trough/dewpoint gradient, has setup and could make for a pseudo sea-breeze this afternoon, helping to trigger more scattered convection across the Coastal Bend and its interior portions.
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta. As a result, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the backside of the ridge. East of this feature, instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S. Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily east of this feature, mainly SE zones.
A Pacific cold front will move into Wrn Neb this morning and become stationary.
A large area of light to moderate rain is slowly rotating through central PA, not far from a dissipating low pressure center, while lighter showers extend through eastern PA and along Lake Ontario. Very little movement is forecast for the upper low. A fair degree of sunshine is expected over NY/PA, and with the cool pool south of our region, temperatures should rebound into the lower and middle 70s. The proximity of the low, which will travel north off the New Jersey coast late in the day, combined with daytime heating, should spark a few showers in the afternoon, especially south and east of I-81.
An weakening upper trough will result in a mix of scattered light showers and sunbreaks through Monday.
High pressure will remain in control through Monday evening with generally clear skies. A lake breeze is expected to develop this afternoon keeping the lakeshore areas cooler. though with the high a bit further east. high temps in the lower 80s most locations.
342 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 (Tonight and Monday) An upper ridge extends from Texas north-northeast into the upper Mississippi Valley, with the ridge axis shifting slowly east of our area this afternoon. The overall setup on Monday looks similar to today with southwest flow over our area, but the upper ridge axis will be a little farther east.
A strong upper-level low pressure area will settle over the area today through Monday, producing unsettled weather.
222 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week.
Upper low sinking down the Eastern Seaboard tonight and spinning over the Carolinas tomorrow. Combination of features to wrap around this low with dry slot from the mid Mississippi River valley into the Deep South and N FL tonight into Mon. The weak front moving down the state this afternoon to continue and sink south tonight then pull off into the Atlantic Monday as weak high pressure builds into the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies to keep temps at or slightly above climo from the Bay Area into SW FL with partly cloudy and slightly cooler conditions over the Nature Coast tonight.
A benign weather day is expected today behind a cold front with drier air and sunny skies.
VFR conditions observed as cloud cover has scoured over much of the area with just some spotty CU mainly in east Texas and cirrus spilling over the ridge across the plains.
/Today/ Temperatures remain the only real concern today with long wave ridge overhead and little in the way of forcing or moisture. Soundings still suggest warmest readings northeast, but approaching central plains thermal ridge should make yesterday's gradient less pronounced.
224 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper low spins over southern Alberta, with a 100+ kt jet pushing into the Northern Plains. Cold front has stalled over western SD and isn't progged to leave the CWA until around 06Z.
An upper level low pressure system will gradually release its grip on the Pacific NW early this week with a weak ridgeof high pres moving in by midweek. A new trough of low pres will drop down into the region from the nnw late in the week, resulting in an increase in chances for showers again towards the end of the week.
Cooler than normal conditions can be expected for much of the week.
255 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes is expected to drift southeast over the local area on Monday.
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Low pressure will remain the primary feature through tonight.
The low pressure over the east coast will continue to push moisture and energy around and through SW VA and far NE TN. high pressure begins to influence the area with mostly clear skies and dry weather. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION MAY NOT BE SO QUICK TO RECENTER ITSELF OFFSHORE. AS THE RIDGING MAY HELP KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE SWLY MOISTURE FLOW TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
A strong upper-level low pressure area will settle over the area through Monday, producing unsettled weather.
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Oklahoma and the southern plains are now under the influence of the large upper trough over the western U.
/issued 1026 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/ Upper trough over the Eastern U. The weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move over the FL Peninsula today with drier high pressure building into the region behind the front with near normal temps.
506 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. An upper level low across was across southwestern PA based on the latest water vapor and meso analysis. With low freezing levels some small hail is briefly possible in a few of the storms. The showers are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the upper low begins to move SE.
605 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Weak low pressure along the Carolina coast will move slowly northeast. otherwise dry high pressure will build into the region through midweek. A closed upper level low will continue to drop south into the Mid-Atlantic region. A mid level short wave trough rotating around the upper low will move across the Midlands tonight. Upper level low along the North Carolina coast Monday. Upper ridge in the midwest moving slowly east.
331 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Omega-block pattern covering the CONUS will slowly slide east over the next few days, shifting the amplified upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes into Michigan on Monday. Good insolation and slightly warmer temperatures profiles should bring max temps back up into the mid 70s tomorrow, with locations near the lakeshores remaining cooler as winds turn off the lake.
643 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure will cross the area overnight and provide clear skies and light winds. Even on the backside of this high on Monday, expect skies to remain clear and return SSW flow to hold under 10 knots as pressure gradient really does not tighten too much until 00z Monday evening. *None Omega-block pattern covering the CONUS will slowly slide east over the next few days, shifting the amplified upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes into Michigan on Monday. Good insolation and slightly warmer temperatures profiles should bring max temps back up into the mid 70s tomorrow, with locations near the lakeshores remaining cooler as winds turn off the lake.