Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Other than some patchy fog across the Wisconsin River Valley, expect VFR to prevail through the day Monday, as high pressure moves into the region. Low pressure will continue east into Ontario tonight, with winds remaining gusty from the west across the northern half of the lake. High pressure will build in tonight into early Monday, bringing quiet conditions.
Slightly cooler air has moved into much of the forecast area behind this boundary such that the Heat Advisory issued earlier has been cancelled for all counties except Palo Duro Canyon State Park. Convergence along the trough may be just enough to spark ISO TSTMs across the far SE corner late this aftn and evening and just now beginning to see some CU developing in this area.
Across the western Sandhills, a light westerly wind and lower dewpoint will help drive up highs into the low to mid 90s. Tonight, a slight chance for thunderstorms north of a warm front extending across far southern Nebraska. Tuesday, an upper ridge axis will extend from the Southern into the Central Rockies. A weak cold front will settle to near the Nebraska/Kansas border, with easterly winds present across western Nebraska.
351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Heat today and Tuesday, upcoming rain chances and the possibility of cooler temperatures main focus. Models continue to carve out an eastern trough, while weakening upper ridge, allowing weak northwest flow to develop across the area by mid- week. This is expected to result in rain chances in the extended with better/higher chances across the north/northeast parts of the area and slightly cooler temperatures.
Airmass over much of the area could become capped as temperatures soar, but some concern there could be enough lift ahead of this wave to break that, especially if upper levels begin to cool closer to trough. Period will largely be dominated by cooler, drier northwest flow as upper troughing continues over eastern Canada. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds over the area.
The ridge will build in Monday and Tuesday, resulting in more hot and humid weather.
WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over the lwr Rio Grande Valley, resulting in yet another day of hot temperatures for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Over the next few days, the ridge will generally drift NW, w/thicknesses gradually decreasing across the area. By about midweek, long-range models dig a trough out of Canada into the Ms Valley, pushing a trough thru the Arklatex and into Texas and splitting the ridge between the west and east coasts. In general, a rich, low-lvl theta-e ridge remains oriented SW-NE, and this looks to be the best orientation to expect convection each day. Best chances short term look to be the NW half of the CWA, then expending SE later in the week as the aforementioned trough digs into the region.
Overnight the cold front to the north will move into our region providing a solid low cloud deck that may just keep our temperatures at bay for most of the region on Monday. Tuesday upper level ridging moves into the area resulting in a southerly return flow at the surface.
156 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist flow into the forecast area through much of the week. Weak troughing will linger locally. Persisted with overnight temperatures with lows in the low to mid 70s. Persistent upper trough over the area with ridge out west and offshore. Continued forecast of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms both days with temperatures remaining above normal in the low to mid 90s. The surface southerly flow is forecast to continue on the backside of high pressure off the Southeast Coast. The models depict a weakness in upper ridging over the forecast area. Many CAMs suggest the highest coverage will be outside of the TAF sites. The low chance of rain will continue overnight, particularly at OGB, where a plume of low level moisture will support scattered showers.
1017 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Upper ridging continues to build across the western to central CONUS bringing dry and quiet weather to the region. Highs tomorrow will be much warmer. At this time, the second half of the week looks to be dry as upper ridging remains across the area.
253 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The persistent upper level ridge will take on a more amplified look today. The ridge at 250mb will continue to move to the west across northern Mexico. The 500mb ridge will follow in the upcoming days as well. Thickness values are down about 25m from yesterday so temperatures will be a few degrees cooler although still well above seasonal averages.
Temperatures will climb into the low and mid 90s with potentially a larger area of 105F+ heat indices.
302 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude pattern in place across the Nation, with a trough sweeping east across the Great Lakes and a modest ridge axis poking north across the Rockies. And, as this high slides to our east today, southerly winds and synoptic level height gains all point at afternoon highs bounding back into the upper 80s and lower 90s today, and maybe a little hotter Tuesday.
Subtropical Ridge settles over the Southern Plains/Rockies area. Although the thermal ridge backs away only slightly enabling high temperatures to ease off a degree or two from the last few days, they remain well above normal.
Upper ridging currently to the west of the state will build into the region during the remainder of the short term period. The area will be on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge with a continuing chance of afternoon convection on Monday. Ridge will expand eastward on Tuesday and any precipitation chances will be confined to the eastern sections of the forecast area. South to southwest winds will continue to pull gulf moisture into the area and with temperatures being a little warmer, heat related headlines will likely be needed.
Convective parameters are decent, and guidance is showing some afternoon convection developing along the lee trough extending across the region. Looking aloft on Tuesday, we see an upper level ridge over the central rockies, this in combination with a weak cold front sagging south from Nebraska, will help give way to a nice tight pressure gradient, generating lift increasing our instability.
Today Through Tuesday Night Ridge of high pressure over the central and southern Plains will build over Arkansas the next couple of days.
Subtropical Ridge settles over the Southern Plains/Rockies area. Thermal ridge backs away slightly enabling high temperatures to ease off a degree or two each day, though remaining well above normal.
621 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure will exit to the east today. Return flow will set up on the back side of the high. Breezy southerly winds will usher in warmer, more humid air. Low pressure moves in from the west by this evening bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure builds back in on Tuesday with dry conditions expected.
The short term forecast period is highlighted by warmer temperatures and a conditional threat for severe weather. Early this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a transition to a more zonal flow pattern in the upper level over the Northern Plains as a southern ridge builds. With good warm air advection upstream of the developing low and southerly low level flow through the day, highs in the low 90s are expected in the southwest with highs in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
However, with the low overall chance of each terminal being impacted and another TAF issuance still to come before storms may begin, will leave out mentions of thunder this cycle. Hot weather expected to continue in the short term as upper high remains in place over W TX. Two disturbances, one over NE AZ and one just south of NM, should continue to ride the northwestern side of the upper high.
432 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Today through tonight: Generally speaking, the weather pattern remains hot and humid today in association with the eastern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge, but there are some complexities that result in low confidence concerning the forecast details.
/EC/ Today through tonight: Generally speaking, the weather pattern remains hot and humid today in association with the eastern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge, but there are some complexities that result in low confidence concerning the forecast details.
618 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude pattern in place across the Nation, with a trough sweeping east across the Great Lakes and a modest ridge axis poking north across the Rockies. And, as this high slides to our east today, southerly winds and synoptic level height gains all point at afternoon highs bounding back into the upper 80s and lower 90s today, and maybe a little hotter Tuesday.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Tuesday before upper ridge begins rebuilding over the region.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. Current surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s along the Arkansas River valley up through Tulsa and do not expect this to mix out this afternoon.
/issued 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Mid level ridging centered over the southern high plains sprawls to southwest Canada. weak troughiness stretches down the eastern seaboard. and ridging nudges into FL from the Atlantic through Tue night. At the surface a frontal trough along the northern Gulf coast and through northern Fl eases northward as broad Atlantic high pressure across south-central FL to the Gulf lifts into northern FL Tue. Wed-Sun: Atlantic high pressure ridging west along 30 North Latitude to the central Gulf coast provides a prevailing southeast flow but with an onshore shift near the Gulf coast in the afternoons. Gentle to moderate winds generally from the southeast except during afternoon seas breezes as relaxed high pressure dominates the waters.
With trof coming through, expecting a rather active day for convection as PWATs rise, convective temperatures continue to be easily met and sea breeze becomes once again active.
/issued 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ The subtropical ridge that had brought record heat to the area will remain centered over W TX and E NM today.
A cold front will sweep through the area during the second half of the week, with Canadian high pressure building in for the weekend. For today, it shows convection developing east of the Blue Ridge mtns south of I-66 and tracking east toward the Potomac River and southern MD.
720 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 H5 ridge shifting across Texas will continue to build NWWD across WY during the next 24 hours. Ridging will continue across the area through the period, so there is little change to the forecast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 92 71 / 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 95 70 92 72 / 10 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 66 90 67 / 20 10 30 30.
355 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 H5 ridge shifting across Texas will continue to build NWWD across WY during the next 24 hours. Ridging will continue across the area through the period, so there is little change to the forecast.
/issued 351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Heat today and Tuesday, upcoming rain chances and the possibility of cooler temperatures main focus. Models continue to carve out an eastern trough, while weakening upper ridge, allowing weak northwest flow to develop across the area by mid- week. This is expected to result in rain chances in the extended with better/higher chances across the north/northeast parts of the area and slightly cooler temperatures.
Conditions are expected to remain dry through this evening as an upper level trough continues to progress eastward, out of the region. With the cooler air mass in place, combined with southerly flow overnight, left in the chance for some fog across the eastern parts of the forecast area.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic north of the Cape will continue to shift slowly northward with low level winds out of the E/SE today. Deeper moisture moving into the area tonight with an approaching inverted trough will then lead to additional tempo IFR/MVFR conditions with onshore moving showers and isolated storms overnight, especially south of KMLB.
739 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Aviation - Fair weather today and tonight - Showers and storms possible Tuesday afternoon and night - Cooler late in the week A high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair wx today through tonight with seasonable temps for this time of year. A strong cold front will bring some showers and storms Tuesday night.
Today's temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal.
512 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Upper flow over the northern plains is nearly zonal, with slight ridging to the west. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s, beneath sunny skies. Highs will be cooler - but still warm - in the 80s.
Once any fog that does develop dissipates this morning, expect a warmer day. This will bring in additional low level moisture with increasing dew points and temperatures will be a little warmer as well. There will be a warm front that develops across north central Kansas. This will bring warmer temperatures to the area.
828 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Widespread rain with embedded storms was moving across the Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia this morning around an area of low pressure across southern Georgia. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for the Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia due to the cloud cover and rainfall, with upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the area.
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The short term forecast period is highlighted by warmer temperatures and a conditional threat for severe weather. Early this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a transition to a more zonal flow pattern in the upper level over the Northern Plains as a southern ridge builds. With good warm air advection upstream of the developing low and southerly low level flow through the day, highs in the low 90s are expected in the southwest with highs in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
Airmass over much of the area could become capped as temperatures soar, but some concern there could be enough lift ahead of this wave to break that, especially if upper levels begin to cool closer to trough. Period will largely be dominated by cooler, drier northwest flow as upper troughing continues over eastern Canada. After any early morning fog burns off at KLSE, VFR conditions are likely into tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies under weak high pressure.
Very weak trough lingers across the region early this week maintaining temperatures close to average for mid-August with light to moderate onshore flow.
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Upper level high pressure building overhead will shove moisture and thunderstorm chances mainly to the west and northwest of TAF sites later today. /issued 253 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ The persistent upper level ridge will take on a more amplified look today. The ridge at 250mb will continue to move to the west across northern Mexico. The 500mb ridge will follow in the upcoming days as well. Thickness values are down about 25m from yesterday so temperatures will be a few degrees cooler although still well above seasonal averages.
Minor changes were made to the forecast overnight as model simulations for the passing trough midweek continue to deepen. If simulations for the trough continue to deepen, chances for showers near the Oregon border may need to be added along with breezier winds.
351 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure over the region will result in continued warm and dry conditions over the next few days.
515 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The short term forecast period is highlighted by warmer temperatures and a conditional threat for severe weather. Early this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a transition to a more zonal flow pattern in the upper level over the Northern Plains as a southern ridge builds. With good warm air advection upstream of the developing low and southerly low level flow through the day, highs in the low 90s are expected in the southwest with highs in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
High pressure over the region will result in continued warm and dry conditions over the next few days. With high pressure in place, temperatures will stay on the warm side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals over northern Utah and closer to climo over southern Utah. The ridge is expected to continue to amplify through midweek, allowing temperatures to slowly continue to warm.
WV imagery indicates the upper-level ridge has begun its trek north, and is currently centered over West Texas. The ridge is still on track to move north-northwest over the next few days, allowing highs to drop into the 90s most locations beginning Tuesday, and continuing thru the extended and remaining above-normal.
1114 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Upper flow over the northern plains is nearly zonal, with slight ridging to the west. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s, beneath sunny skies. Highs will be cooler - but still warm - in the 80s.
Upper level ridge of high pressure remained the dominate feature across the Southern Plains at mid morning. the ridge of high pressure will remain in place with the surface boundary staying north of the CWA. a few isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms still look to be possible mainly across the higher terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas.
High clouds over central Nevada into California will lift north through the night as high pressure builds into the area.
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a moist and unsettled airmass over the state. Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. The area will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge.
/Tonight through Monday/ High pressure remains ridged into central Iowa this afternoon with return flow beginning to develop into far western Iowa and into Nebraska and Kansas. The return flow will increase this evening as the High departs to the east. The low level jet will form and increase to 35-40kts between 03-06z and will bring a strong push of theta-e advection into central Iowa. This would be contingent on potential for increased mixing ahead of the line can help erode the low level inversion and allow for low level vortex stretching.
/Issued 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Hot weather expected to continue in the short term as upper high remains in place over W TX. Two disturbances, one over NE AZ and one just south of NM, should continue to ride the northwestern side of the upper high. Ferguson Weak flow aloft will prevail as summertime ridge dominates the south-central and southwest CONUS.
Airmass over much of the area could become capped as temperatures soar, but some concern there could be enough lift ahead of this wave to break that, especially if upper levels begin to cool closer to trough. Period will largely be dominated by cooler, drier northwest flow as upper troughing continues over eastern Canada.
244 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm in northeast PA and the Catskills early this evening, tonight will become clear as high pressure builds across the region.
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Very hot weather will be the headline through at least tomorrow before a cold front approaches the area mid-late week. Left areas further west in an advisory for now given slightly cooler forecast highs compared with today which may keep these areas just below warning threshold, but this will need to be looked at again with the next forecast package.
308 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over southern areas through this evening. High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore to the southeast.
Subtropical ridge remains over much of the Srn/SWrn US, but some weakness on the periphery will push from the Gulf into South TX tonight.
On Tuesday, a cold front is expected to drop southeast into the area during the afternoon. Tuesday Night Through Monday The main forecast concerns are thunderstorm chances and potential severe weather Tuesday night, a period of cooler temperatures, and timing the return of precipitation chances late in the weekend. Due to recent model trends, have slowed down the progression of pops with the cold frontal passage Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms should stay over the higher terrain, though may impact CNM this afternoon/evening. /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ The subtropical ridge that had brought record heat to the area will remain centered over W TX and E NM today.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Tuesday as winds veer to the east. An upper-level ridge will then begin rebuilding over the region.
1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A strengthening upper high will keep higher moisture and thunderstorms mainly to the west of all terminals. /issued 253 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ The persistent upper level ridge will take on a more amplified look today. The ridge at 250mb will continue to move to the west across northern Mexico. The 500mb ridge will follow in the upcoming days as well. Thickness values are down about 25m from yesterday so temperatures will be a few degrees cooler although still well above seasonal averages.
As SE winds increase to 15-25 mph this afternoon, convergence along the lee trough/dryline is expected to allow at least isolated convection to develop across the western/SW zones this afternoon. Most locations will hold easily in the lower 70s through Tuesday. Most of the daylight hours Tuesday will remain dry courtesy of strong upper level ridging aloft.
231 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A upper level ridge dominated the south-central CONUS with warm and dry zonal flow aloft. A cold front poised just north of the Canadian/US border is forecast to progress southward into western NE and eastern WY plains Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds into the east. Low level easterly upslope flow will introduce cooler temperatures, increasing moisture and instability east of the Laramie Range during the afternoon and evening.
The bad new is temperatures warmer than usual, for this time in August, will continue; the good news is highs for Tuesday may be a degree or two cooler than today. Looking at 850mb temperatures, the thermal ridge may not be as dominate tomorrow. This would then help hold afternoon highs slightly cooler. Slightly Cooler and Possible Rain. Temperatures still look slightly cooler than those we've seen previously this month.
In addition the overall forcing is weak, so surface based thunderstorm development across southern/southwest NE near the warm front is uncertain. Initially large hail will be a concern from these storms due to the very steep mid-lapse rates, then later in the evening as the low-level jet increases, the storms should grow upscale and track east roughly along the I-80 corridor to the north of the warm front.
927 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A ridge of high pressure will gradually build up across the Pacific Northwest today and Tuesday.
With the freezing level embedded in the steep mid level lapse rates, expect hail to be a possibility, along with strong damaging winds with a wealth of dry air aloft.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the Northern Rockies for the next few days. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, peaking in the upper 80s in most locations.
1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude pattern in place across the Nation, with a trough sweeping east across the Great Lakes and a modest ridge axis poking north across the Rockies. And, as this high slides to our east today, southerly winds and synoptic level height gains all point at afternoon highs bounding back into the upper 80s and lower 90s today, and maybe a little hotter Tuesday.