Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 /00Z TAFS/ Cold front south of I-20 will move south at 20 KTS, moving along the I-10 corridor 4-5Z. Otherwise, our attention turns to the cold front currently situated just north and west of the CWA. It will feel much more like fall with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.
955 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Evng analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary along the north FL border on the backside of a high pres ridge axis draped over central FL and the ern GOMex. Aloft, a well organized anticyclone dominates the H85-H50 lyr with the axis extending from the srn Bahamas into the central GOMex. However, wind fields through the H100-H50 lyr will prevent the bulk of the moisture pooling within the frontal trof from pushing much further south overnight. High pres ridge extending from Bermuda acrs central FL will drift south overnight, allowing a light to gentle E/SE breeze to veer to a gentle to moderate S/SW breeze overnight.
Latest models continue to support current forecast of warm dry weather Wednesday, with showers beginning Wednesday night in eastern Oregon as a cold front arrives from the west.
307 PM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019 With the deck of low clouds from earlier today eroding away toward the east this afternoon and evening, our forecast attention turns toward the warmer temperatures arriving through the middle part of the week and more rain showers arriving later this weekend.
High pressure aloft will dominate through midweek, bringing slightly above average temperatures to the region.
Latest HIRES models indicate still a potential of light rain showers as the upper low exits to the east of the cwa into this evening. Temperatures warmed into the lower 50s over east central MN early afternoon with brief sunshine.
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Large stratus area currently associated with low level moisture and the low level baroclinic zone. Within the low level moist layer, where breaks in the overcast have become established, a few showers are trying to form as there are decent low level lapse rates and weak vertical motion per RAP BUFKIT soundings. Increased upward vertical motion will initially allow some drier air aloft to mix through the low level moist column/below 5kft, but at the same time will also allow an inversion to develop near the ground given the snow cover and high moisture. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 60s west to the colder mid 30s in the Turtle Mountains with deeper snowpack.
A surface cold front trailed the leading convective cells by 50 or 60 miles. GOES East GLM showed lightning gradually decreasing, and cloud top temps no cooler than adjacent cirrus. The second weather maker is a cold front moving rapidly south from the Midwest. Heaviest rainfall from this cold front should be across portions of west Tennessee.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low to mid 60s with only a few cirrus clouds anticipated. Light and variable winds will gradually return to the south as high pressure translates eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley area late in the period.
256 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Upper ridging over the western U. However, wind speeds around 20 mph have been confined to the Fort Peck Dam, and have come in consistently on the low end of criteria. The upper ridge will translate downstream of the CWA late in the week as the next upper trough digs into the Pacific coastline and eventually brings an increase in precipitation chances to northeast Montana. That said, there is some degree of confidence that a wetter and cooler weather pattern will unfold for the upcoming weekend.
248 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas into the central plains. Lee side trof located over central Montana into Wyoming.
Satellite shows a patch of mid clouds across SE NM within the mid-level trof axis.
353 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Upper level ridging builds east across the region today. Return southerly flow (south winds) develop as leeward troughing develops across the western High Plains. Warming up once again as warmer air advects northward with high in the lower to mid 70s across the Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska. Farther east across portions of central into north central Nebraska, cool air in the wake of Tuesday's cold front will be recycled back north with highs in the mid 50s to around 60F.
Much cooler air will flow into central Indiana today behind an exiting cold front.
Temperatures today will remain approximately 5 to 10 degrees below normal behind the cold front that passed south through the region yesterday. The weak upper level low/trough that has split off from the northern jet will continue to meander east and south across Texas for the remainder of the work week.
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For the 16/06Z TAF period, deteriorating flight conditions will prevail through the early part of this TAF period as a cold front continues shifting across the region tonight. Light southerly winds will quickly veer N/NW with the cold front as speeds increase to between 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts near 20 kts. /issued 1002 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage this evening, but a cold front is just beginning to enter our NW zones so additional convection is expected through the remainder of the overnight hours. For this update, some slight adjustments have been made to POPs, winds, and cloud cover to better align with ongoing trends along the advancing cold front.
16/06Z TAF CYCLE The cold front will sweep through SE AR before daybreak.
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 A mixture of VFR/MVFR and IFR through the first half of the taf cycle as moisture streams in ahead of a cold front. The cold front will sweep through the region through mid/late morning spreading shra and lowered cigs/visb.
348 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Upper level ridging builds east across the region today. Return southerly flow (south winds) develop as leeward troughing develops across the western High Plains. Warming up once again as warmer air advects northward with high in the lower to mid 70s across the Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska. Farther east across portions of central into north central Nebraska, cool air in the wake of Tuesday's cold front will be recycled back north with highs in the mid 50s to around 60F.
331 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 High pressure settling over the forecast area today will result in seasonably cool readings this afternoon under full sun. Ridge axis to shift nearly overhead tonight, making a for a very cool overnight, especially the typically colder locations of NE OK and NW AR.
A cold front will make its way across the Ozarks through this afternoon. Current observations place the cold front from just north of Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks and northeast to just north of St. The low level shear was rather limited however though there was some good upper level jet support with a 115kt jet at 250mb over the area. As a result of the marginal ingredients in place ahead of the cold front, SPC has areas south of I-44 in a Marginal Risk for damaging winds up to 60mph and isolated hail to quarter size. An upper level ridge will slide across the plains and over the Ozarks for the later half of the week before sliding east of the Ozarks by the weekend.
118 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 The gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon, but should quickly diminish this evening as mixing decreases and high pressure slides in from the north. The entire area should see freezing temperatures and some may drop as low as the mid 20s. Wednesday will only be a couple degrees warmer than today as high presure slowly shifts to the east. As a result Wednesday night's lows are forecast to remain above freezing.
A high pressure center will move off to the southeast through the day. Winds should not be too strong today as the lee trof will just start to deepen through the next 12 hours. For tonight, warm air advection will continue ahead of a large trof located across the western United States/Pacific Northwest.
134 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 A cold front is just now entering Middle Tennessee from the northwest, with a band of showers and a few thunderstorms riding just ahead of the surface boundary. The front should exit the mid state by 12Z, with a few lingering showers lasting into the morning before drier, cooler air moves in. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 30's most areas, with patchy frost likely in the cooler locations.
Made some minor adjustments to increase Minimum Temperatures a little bit, as it is currently warmer than expected. FGC Previous discussion: With the deck of low clouds from earlier today eroding away toward the east this afternoon and evening, our forecast attention turns toward the warmer temperatures arriving through the middle part of the week and more rain showers arriving later this weekend.
317 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 At 3 AM, cyclonic flow, associated with the closed low pressure area over Lower Michigan, kept skies mainly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The rain will be moving east of the area this morning as the upper level low moves east into Lake Huron. While the low will be exiting the area, moisture will remain trapped underneath the subsidence inversion. As a result, we will remain mainly cloudy until the 950 to 850 mb ridge moves east of the area.
At 05Z a gravity wave, ahead of the cold front, was pushing south through the Hill Country and Central Texas. The actual cold front was lagging just to the north at 05Z, nearing a SOA-JCT-LZZ line. MVFR ceilings are possible behind the cold front across northern and eastern areas, including AUS, through 15Z.
250 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 An upper level ridge will track across the Central Rockies today and tonight. Warmer air will move into the state pushing high temperatures into the 70s across northeast Colorado.
339 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 A cold front continues its trek southward through the area and will pass south of the international border before sunrise. Models still show a weak upper low becoming cutoff over the S Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. This closed low will not have much of an effect on generating precipitation across the area as sfc moisture will be scoured out behind the front.
High pressure will remain dominant today and push the clouds east, which should keep winds light and variable with mostly sunny skies. Far northeast KS may stay a few degrees cooler with any lingering cloud cover, but generally we can expect to see highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Big changes are on the way, however, as a strong cold front currently situated through middle Tennessee and entering NW Alabama is making rapid progress toward Georgia. This strong cold front will enter northwest Georgia by mid-morning and quickly move southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Current showers and cloudy skies will quickly clear from northwest to southeast behind the cold front, and breezy northwest winds will usher in much cooler and drier air.
Although moisture will increase some, warmer temperatures and rather low afternoon humidity will provide a more favorable environment for the start and spread of fires.
High pressure over extreme South Florida, the Florida Keys and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters will slowly be pressed southeastward, as a weakening mid and upper level trough migrates eastward and across the Gulf coast States.
Low clouds and occasional breezy north winds ushering in cool air will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s for most locations.
/Today through Thursday/ Early morning convection along cold front to quickly exit the region to the south by daybreak. High pressure building behind the cold front to advect drier air across the region. Temperatures this afternoon to only make it into the mid 60s to around 70 before diving into the lower 40s overnight. Otherwise, upper-level ridge to prevail through Thursday with mainly clear skies and afternoon high temperatures in the lower 70s.
428 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Wednesday and Wednesday night: Rain will be ending this morning followed by decreasing clouds today as a cold front moves out of the area, and drier air begins to filter in. Expect partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures tonight in the wake of the cold front, with overnight lows ranging from the low 40s north to the upper 40s south.
/issued 339 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ A cold front continues its trek southward through the area and will pass south of the international border before sunrise. Models still show a weak upper low becoming cutoff over the S Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. This closed low will not have much of an effect on generating precipitation across the area as sfc moisture will be scoured out behind the front. An upper-level trof will come onshore Thursday and a return to SW flow aloft will transpire over the CWA.
653 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Rain will be ending Wednesday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front moving through the area. /27/ Wednesday and Wednesday night: Rain will be ending this morning followed by decreasing clouds today as a cold front moves out of the area, and drier air begins to filter in. Expect partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures tonight in the wake of the cold front, with overnight lows ranging from the low 40s north to the upper 40s south.
Temperatures today will remain approximately 5 to 10 degrees below normal behind the cold front that passed south through the region yesterday. The weak upper level low/trough that has split off from the northern jet will continue to meander east and south across Texas for the remainder of the work week. A broad but progressive ridge will make an eastward pass across the Southern Plains Thursday. Southwesterly winds and temperatures will increase Thursday afternoon as the ridge axis shifts past our longitude.
A high pressure center will move off to the southeast through the day. Winds should not be too strong today as the lee trof will just start to deepen through the next 12 hours. For tonight, warm air advection will continue ahead of a large trof located across the western United States/Pacific Northwest. The lee trof will continue to deepen and winds will be breezy to windy at times.
Highs today will be well below normal, ranging from the lower to middle 40s across the north, with highs around 50 across east- central Wisconsin. High pressure will then bring drier weather into the region tonight as winds ease considerably after sunset.
635 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 VFR conditions expected today as high pressure builds across the region. /Today through Thursday/ Early morning convection along cold front to quickly exit the region to the south by daybreak. High pressure building behind the cold front to advect drier air across the region. Temperatures this afternoon to only make it into the mid 60s to around 70 before diving into the lower 40s overnight. Otherwise, upper-level ridge to prevail through Thursday with mainly clear skies and afternoon high temperatures in the lower 70s.
High pressure will remain dominant today and push the clouds east, which should keep winds light and variable with mostly sunny skies. Far northeast KS may stay a few degrees cooler with any lingering cloud cover, but generally we can expect to see highs in the mid to upper 50s. By Thursday, winds turn more southerly under the ridge, which will help usher in warmer air and bring afternoon temperatures up to the low 70s.
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Upper level ridging builds east across the region today. Return southerly flow (south winds) develop as leeward troughing develops across the western High Plains. Warming up once again as warmer air advects northward with high in the lower to mid 70s across the Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska.
437 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 (Today and Tonight) Cooler temperatures will be the main story for today as the recent cold frontal passage will keep us in the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
Strong post frontal low level cold advection continues to sweep across the area this morning in response to intense upper low wrapping up across lower MI. Otherwise in its wake vigorous lake based thermal trough develops along with favorable flow trajectory to support some diurnally favored lake showers however strong subsident drying/broader dry entrainment likely to temper a more appreciable response. Robust ridging sfc and aloft follows Thu-Fri ahead of minor upstream sw lifting into srn Canada early Sat. Swd trailing weak cold front will wash out ewd across the lakes with diminishing rain chances late Sat.
/Issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ High pressure settling over the forecast area today will result in seasonably cool readings this afternoon under full sun. Ridge axis to shift nearly overhead tonight, making a for a very cool overnight, especially the typically colder locations of NE OK and NW AR.
405 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly sunny, dry, warmer and breezy as a transient ridge passes quickly by, centered over the four-corners region. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday's and about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The ridge will also bring a drop in afternoon humidities and increased wind gusts across most of southeast Wyoming. Breezy conditions will continue across the high terrain. Ahead of a strong cold front scheduled to move across the high terrain and the High Plains late Thursday, prevailing winds will turn to the southwest and increase in strength. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late Thursday, with the cold front reaching Carbon County before midnight.
428 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Latest surface analysis places a cold front just east of the Tennessee River at this hour. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s areawide, northwest winds, and abundant sunshine.
Will keep timing of precip end about the same, with it mainly dry this afternoon, but hanging on mountain ridges a little longer into the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 43 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 41 62 41 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 40 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 39 56 36 / 50 0 0 0.
A cold front is just now entering Middle Tennessee from the northwest, with a band of showers and a few thunderstorms riding just ahead of the surface boundary. The front should exit the mid state by 12Z, with a few lingering showers lasting into the morning before drier, cooler air moves in. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 30's most areas, with patchy frost likely in the cooler locations.
/issued 428 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ Latest surface analysis places a cold front just east of the Tennessee River at this hour. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s areawide, northwest winds, and abundant sunshine.
1044 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge centered over the Florida Keys and western Cuba. The low-level ridge axis is across the Keys as well, lending to gentle south to southwest breezes across the coastal waters. Forecast soundings depict a window for a favorable vertical profile this afternoon, mainly in the lee of the Lower Keys. A ridge axis will linger over the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this afternoon through Thursday night.
No major changes to the forecast on Thursday as return flow develops, and much warmer air begins to spread across the region. 60s will be common along the Buffalo Ridge Thursday afternoon, with 50s elsewhere. The period will commence with a sharp longwave ridge axis aligned over the Mississippi River, promoting clear skies and light winds.
High temperatures will run slightly warmer than normal today. A cold frontal passage late tonight will be followed by a blustery, much cooler day tomorrow.
Today Through Thursday Night Cold front was located ovr the SE corner of AR early this mrng, and wl clear the state before daybreak. Cooler and much drier air was filtering into the FA on breezy NW winds.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low to mid 60s with only a few cirrus clouds anticipated. Light and variable winds will gradually return to the south as high pressure translates eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley area late in the period. breezy southerly winds will return on Thursday as a mid/upper ridge builds over the central CONUS.
/issued 437 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Cooler temperatures will be the main story for today as the recent cold frontal passage will keep us in the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
439 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas into the central plains. Lee side trof located over central Montana into Wyoming. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains today/Thursday, with low level thermal temperatures peaking Thursday afternoon. Upper ridge breaks down Thursday night as lead impulse ejects out of western CONUS trof.
618 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 At 3 AM, cyclonic flow, associated with the closed low pressure area over Lower Michigan, kept skies mainly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The rain will be moving east of the area this morning as the upper level low moves east into Lake Huron. While the low will be exiting the area, moisture will remain trapped underneath the subsidence inversion. As a result, we will remain mainly cloudy until the 950 to 850 mb ridge moves east of the area. Lows on Thursday morning will be in the lower to mid-30s.
Temperatures will be a little slow to rebound today after a pretty cool start this morning with lows around or a bit below the freezing mark. Not as cool and most areas should be above freezing with southerly winds keeping us a bit warmer. The warm air advection will increase across the region with breezy southerly winds and an upper level ridge of high pressure. With the majority of the central CONUS dominated by ridging at the start of the period Thursday night.
A few valley locations in western Montana could actually get close to 70 degrees this afternoon, with the lower valleys of north-central Idaho warming to the low to mid 70s.
544 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly sunny, dry, warmer and breezy as a transient ridge passes quickly by, centered over the four-corners region. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday's and about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The ridge will also bring a drop in afternoon humidities and increased wind gusts across most of southeast Wyoming. Breezy conditions will continue across the high terrain. Ahead of a strong cold front scheduled to move across the high terrain and the High Plains late Thursday, prevailing winds will turn to the southwest and increase in strength. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late Thursday, with the cold front reaching Carbon County before midnight.
Big changes are on the way, however, as a strong cold front currently situated through middle Tennessee and entering NW Alabama is making rapid progress toward Georgia. This strong cold front will enter northwest Georgia by mid-morning and quickly move southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Current showers and cloudy skies will quickly clear from northwest to southeast behind the cold front, and breezy northwest winds will usher in much cooler and drier air. High temperatures Thursday will run several degrees below normal and range from the 60s in north Georgia to the low-to-mid 70s in central Georgia.
A cold front continues its trek southward through the area and will pass south of the international border before sunrise. Models still show a weak upper low becoming cutoff over the S Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. This closed low will not have much of an effect on generating precipitation across the area as sfc moisture will be scoured out behind the front. An upper-level trof will come onshore Thursday and a return to SW flow aloft will transpire over the CWA.