Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will persist across West Central Texas through the short term, with upper level ridging over the West, upper level troughing over the Midwest, and dry northwest flow aloft over our region. Tonight, clear skies and light winds should lead to decent radiational cooling, but probably not as cool as it was last night, due to some strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. At the surface, a weak cold front will come down into the Big Country by Thursday afternoon, so expect slightly cooler highs Thursday for that region (low 80s).
This Evening Through Wednesday Forecast area lies under cyclonic NW flow between larger upper trof over Great Lakes and sharp ridge over western US.
401 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week into the weekend as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U. Low pressure will provide a chance for rain showers late this weekend. This trough will bring enough instability for cumulus and shower development during the afternoon hours.
334 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Tonight and Thursday: A longwave trough located over the eastern two-thirds of the country this afternoon is the reason for the northwest flow aloft and the cool, fall temperatures today. The front will make its way through our CWA tomorrow morning as the cooler air follows behind and slowly works its way into the area.
Moderately strong northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley will gradually back to WNW over the course of the afternoon, as a mid- level vort max digs southeastward across the Upper MS Valley/Lower Great Lakes in the flow around a longwave trough centered across eastern Canada. At the surface, gusty southwest winds will persist between a high positioned across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a cold front drifting southeastward from the Central Plains into the Lower OH Valley. An amplifying upper trough over the Great Lakes will force a secondary dry cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
Overnight lows look to reach the low to mid 40s. Continue CAA advection will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
(This evening through Thursday) The weather pattern in the short term is benign with the only feature of note being a cold front and associated wind shift currently moving through the area. This means temperatures tomorrow will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, and around 5 degrees below early October normals.
Showers are expected to taper off through the late evening, leaving us with much cooler in the wake of a cold front. Highs Thursday will reach the lower 40s for the Lake of the Woods region, with upper 40s near Valley City.
254 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Cool air is pouring into the Midwest, though the deep mixing behind the cold front is both allowing for a mild high temperature today and has brought the expected 2 to 4 hour window of strong winds that have reached near 45 mph in spots, measured almost exclusively on ASOS, which is a 10M mounted wind speed measurement and could be higher than the AWOS units.
Previous discussion: Upper ridging will continue parked over the western U.
today with with a longwave trough draped across the eastern U. and high pressure across the west. The high pressure is dominating the weather across S TX keeping the airmass dry and skies clear.
An upper level trough will broaden and become more established over the eastern CONUS through Thursday. At the surface, a dry cold front will drop down to the central gulf coast possibly reaching our northwest zones by Thursday evening. Until then, after another cool night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s, we will see a slight warm up on Thursday with highs in the lower 80s.
A strong ridge of high pressure remains firmly in place over the Pacific coastal states. This weekend the models indicate that high pressure will begin to shift more towards the Great Basin, being suppressed and moved by increasing jet stream activity blasting into northern British Columbia.
341 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Near picture perfect conditions ongoing across the region this afternoon with clear skies and temperatures in the lower 80s.
Current mid-level satellite water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb heights show an elongated ridge across the west and southwest CONUS. An elongated trough moves off the east coast into the Atlantic, while another low pressure spins north of the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with the low near the Great Lakes is pushing south across the forecast area this morning into the afternoon with northeast surface winds following behind the front. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s across the northwest combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with the remainder of the area in the lower 50s. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler Thursday given the cooler air mass brought through by the aforementioned cold front.
A weak cold front is on its way and it will arrive early Thursday morning. While the overnight lows tonight will still be a few degrees warmer than this morning, the daytime highs on Thursday will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s across North TX and mid 80s across Central TX.
/10/ Today through tonight: Northwest flow associated with a highly amplified longwave trough over eastern North America is maintaining a dry and seasonable airmass over the ArkLaMiss region. Sunny skies and increased warm advection/mixing ahead of the next approaching cold front will allow temperatures to rebound a bit today, especially over the Delta region, and temperatures tonight will not be quite as cool.
Gusty winds have already been going with a 50 mph wind gust at KBEH as one of the storms attained sufficient height to tap the higher wind fields.
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Cold front pushed south of our area this morning and will stall across South Florida this evening. As we go into the weekend ridging in the Atlantic will start to build back in.
1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 (Today and tonight) A downslope-warmed air mass across the High Plains will advect in from the northwest today.
343 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Relatively quiet weather next several days with a couple of dry cold frontal passages.
1114 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Cooler air along with dry conditions will settle into the region for the next several days. Only a few minor adjustments to temps, running a bit warmer than forecast. Cooler, drier regime, below average max-T today and min-T tonight, but very close to climatology Thursday day. Very quiet weather conditions through the short term period as mid level troughing will dictate conditions across the Eastern U. Highs will be in the lower 70s or so with low temperatures dipping into the lower 50s with some upper 40s not out of the question. Maintained the low chance pops with this feature although the GFS has essentially backed off any precip while the ECMWF continues to show some.
453 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Amplified pattern continues aloft with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. Two short wave lobes round the base of the mean trough during the course of the short term, the first tonight and the second. A surface cold front stretches southwest from a low over the Great Lakes. This cold front will slide through eastern Kentucky overnight. The second system will produce a weak trough at the surface. High pressure will build into the region afterwards, ushering another reinforcing shot of cool autumn air which will drop temperatures back down below averages for this time of year. The first few days we will see below normal temperatures, with daily highs in the 60s and nightly lows in the low to mid 40s.
A dry cold front has moved through northern portions already this morning, as well as through Casper and Riverton/Lander.
Tonight overnight lows will drop to the lower to mid 40s with afternoon highs Thursday capped to the lower 50s north and in the mid to upper 50s over the central and south.
One trough and associated showers passed through this morning with some subsidence/drying behind it into early this afternoon. This was short-lived though as water vapor showing another mid-level trough dropping into northern MN from Manitoba. This convection is expected to wane this evening as the trough passes and we lose surface heating. Yet another trough drops into the area later tonight into Thursday for more showers and isolated storms.
155 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U.
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. Mins will range from the lower to middle 40s across the north to around 50F south. Highs will be similar to Wednesday with maxes ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the lower 70s southeast.
157 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, intensifying low pressure tracks north across eastern Canada. A weak cold front will then approach later tonight and stall nearby Thursday into Thursday night.
222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mild temps underway ahead of the next cold front which is currently near Interstate 44 through NE OK.
Ample instability across central/east central Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin this afternoon will allow for some small hail due to low freezing levels.
304 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Gusty SW winds continue ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. The cold front is expected to pass through later this evening, with a brief (2-3 hours) increase in cloud cover. A few showers (20- 30%) could drop into our NE again, but overall still calling for a mostly dry day elsewhere and slightly cooler highs confined to the 60s.
along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. Canadian high pressure. With this in mind, sensible weather on Thursday will be analogous to today -- albeit 7-10F cooler via persistent weak cold advection. An amplified synoptic pattern (characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS) will persist through the weekend.
Do believe temperatures will fall enough into the lower to mid 30s to result in some areas/widespread frost late Thursday night.
A cold front is indicated upstream and this feature is expected to move through the area tonight. At any rate, cooler air will follow.
The cold front that went through the area yesterday has ushered in a cooler and drier airmass over the region. A second dry cold front will sweep through the area Thursday with another round of reinforcing cool air.
Tonight should be a couple degrees warmer than last night, with lows generally in the 50s although a couple low-lying spots may still drop into the 40s.
118 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, intensifying low pressure tracks north across eastern Canada. A weak cold front will then approach later tonight and stall nearby Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will remain the dominant feature, being slowly superseded by a new air mass moving south into the Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf. Mid level ridging centered over the Southwest United States and North Central Mexico will extend east over deep South Texas. With upstream ridging in place, will expect mostly clear to clear night time skies and mostly sunny to sunny daytime skies with no rain in the short term forecast.
1016 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Dry cold front expected to move through the forecast area this afternoon, however cooler air will lag some behind the boundary. Cooler conditions to ensue tomorrow and continue into the weekend.
1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 For the 30/18Z TAF period, SE winds at 5-10KT from an upper-level ridge precede another reinforcing cold front arriving by 01/14Z across the area. Winds to become light and northeast on Thursday as high pressure becomes reinforced behind a dry cold front across the region. Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 80s today to lows in the mid 50s overnight. High temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the mid 70s behind the front across the I-30 corridor to the lower 80s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
It will feel much cooler tomorrow with highs only expected to reach the mid 60s across the area. Expect the cooler air post frontal airmass to continue to filter in through tomorrow night as appreciable cold air advection continues in the 850mb-700mb layer.
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. Rapid clearing has in fact taken place the last few hours over the Lower Susq. Large scale subsidence will help the low clouds dissipate over the Alleghenies by late morning, with a good amount of sunshine expected there.
218 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure along with cool and dry conditions will settle over NC through tonight.
A cold front pushed through earlier this morning, however the strongest cold air advection had not reached much of southwest Kansas until midday, thus many areas saw temperatures rise to the lower to mid 80s before stabilizing in the afternoon. North winds will weaken tonight, and the combined dry airmass, clear sky, and cooler airmass in place should result in low temperatures of lower to mid 40s. Continued north winds on Thursday will keep the cooler airmass in place, and this will result in high temperatures around 15 degrees lower than today.
Also, with cooler temperatures today, the relative humidity is not expected to drop below 20 percent as was the case for most locations yesterday.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight with lows closer to seasonal normals. Fog shouldn't be an issue for most tonight as the temp/dewpoint depression should be slightly higher due to the warmer overnight temps. Highs tomorrow will be just a tad cooler due to the frontal passage with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s expected.
1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Moderately strong northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley will gradually back to WNW over the course of the afternoon, as a mid- level vort max digs southeastward across the Upper MS Valley/Lower Great Lakes in the flow around a longwave trough centered across eastern Canada. At the surface, gusty southwest winds will persist between a high positioned across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a cold front drifting southeastward from the Central Plains into the Lower OH Valley. An amplifying upper trough over the Great Lakes will force a secondary dry cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
The low temperature forecast for tonight remains a little tricky, with cloudier conditions and low level onshore winds likely keeping temps from falling below the low 70s from near/south of Melbourne directly along the coast.
Gusty SW winds continue ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. The cold front is expected to pass through later this evening, with a brief (2-3 hours) increase in cloud cover. A few showers (20- 30%) could drop into our NE again, but overall still calling for a mostly dry day elsewhere and slightly cooler highs confined to the 60s.
715 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. Frontogenetic forcing to the north of the low is producing a narrow band of light rain at 23Z from eastern Ohio into northwest Pa. Mins will range from the lower to middle 40s across the north to around 50F south. Approach of upper trough axis will result in increasing cloud cover and the chance of afternoon showers across NW PA on Thursday, with partly to mostly sunny skies elsewhere east of the Alleghenies. Highs will be similar to Wednesday with maxes ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the lower 70s southeast.
/Issued 222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ Mild temps underway ahead of the next cold front which is currently near Interstate 44 through NE OK.
511 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A reinforcing cold front has brought a chance for some light showers this evening.
A cold front has moved through most of the area today, with drier and cooler air gradually moving in from the north. Tonight and Thursday will be cooler with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s to around 70 (warmest south).
Low temperatures were lowered slightly in northeastern areas of the County Warning Area (CWA) and along the Northern Plateau based on recently cooler trends. A cold frontal boundary is located near to just east of the Ohio River with only a few isolated light showers well to our north. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 73 48 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 71 46 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 71 46 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 68 43 63 39 / 0 10 10 0 0.
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 (This evening through Thursday) The weather pattern in the short term is benign with the only feature of note being a cold front and associated wind shift currently moving through the area. This means temperatures tomorrow will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, and around 5 degrees below early October normals.
823 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through Thursday night as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. Frontogenetic forcing to the north of the low is producing a narrow band of light rain at 23Z from eastern Ohio into northwest Pa. Mins will range from the lower to middle 40s across the north to around 50F south. Approach of upper trough axis will result in increasing cloud cover and the chance of afternoon showers across NW PA on Thursday, with partly to mostly sunny skies elsewhere east of the Alleghenies. Highs will be similar to Wednesday with maxes ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the lower 70s southeast.
345 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Expect little change in conditions over the next 36 hours as the ridge of high pressure persists over the West.
Continued warm above average temperatures and clear skies accompany a strong area of high pressure dominating the western United States.
The surface Atlantic ridge is off to the east leaving a broad trough and generally gentle northeast to east flow across the Keys. An old frontal zone remains draped across our western and northwestern waters while troughing is in place to our east over the Bahamas.
Strongly amplified pattern, with a strong high pressure ridge in the western states, and the eastern states under the influence of the Hudson Bay low. Also, for tonight and Thursday night, low temperatures will dip below the freezing mark for many locations, under this strong influence from the low.
Tonight and Thursday: A longwave trough located over the eastern two-thirds of the country this afternoon is the reason for the northwest flow aloft and the cool, fall temperatures today. The front will make its way through our CWA tomorrow morning as the cooler air follows behind and slowly works its way into the area.
843 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Current forecast for tonight is on track as cold front works across extreme southeast Oklahoma this evening.
A strong upper level ridge approaches from the west, and as the day progresses, this stratus layer dissipates, ultimately leaving the region under mostly clear skies. A cooler air mass causes cooler temperatures, today; however, with ridging dominating the area, expect temperatures to warm back to near average values and then to reach back up into the above average range.
Upper level ridge will remain in place through the weekend bring warmer and drier conditions.
35 Relatively quiet weather next several days with a couple of dry cold frontal passages.
530 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. Mins will range from the lower to middle 40s across the north to around 50F south. Highs will be similar to Wednesday with maxes ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the lower 70s southeast.
427 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Warmer temperatures west of the scattered sprinkles have resulted in relative humidity levels dropping below 25 percent through the James River Valley as of 4 pm. Cloud cover will continue to advance southeast out of Minnesota overnight, and a few lingering sprinkles could be possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Have raised temperatures slightly given the persistent mixing, but temperatures in most areas will fall into the lower 40s.
753 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Amplified pattern continues aloft with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. Two short wave lobes round the base of the mean trough during the course of the short term, the first tonight and the second. A surface cold front stretches southwest from a low over the Great Lakes. This cold front will slide through eastern Kentucky overnight. The second system will produce a weak trough at the surface. High pressure will build into the region afterwards, ushering another reinforcing shot of cool autumn air which will drop temperatures back down below averages for this time of year. The first few days we will see below normal temperatures, with daily highs in the 60s and nightly lows in the low to mid 40s.
638 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure to cont to dominate the weather pattern over the region this eve into the overnight hours. /issued 341 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ Near picture perfect conditions ongoing across the region this afternoon with clear skies and temperatures in the lower 80s.
/issued 638 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ High pressure to cont to dominate the weather pattern over the region this eve into the overnight hours. /issued 341 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ Near picture perfect conditions ongoing across the region this afternoon with clear skies and temperatures in the lower 80s.
Rest of tonight: Mean longwave trough is persistent from the lee of the Rockies across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes & into the northeast. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Thursday: A longwave trough located over the eastern two-thirds of the country this afternoon is the reason for the northwest flow aloft and the cool, fall temperatures today. The front will make its way through our CWA tomorrow morning as the cooler air follows behind and slowly works its way into the area.
352 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure will maintain a warm and dry airmass across the region through the upcoming weekend.
Light winds and cool temperatures expected this evening with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected. An upper level trough will broaden and become more established over the eastern CONUS through Thursday. At the surface, a dry cold front will drop down to the central gulf coast possibly reaching our northwest zones by Thursday evening. Until then, after another cool night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s, we will see a slight warm up on Thursday with highs in the lower 80s.
748 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure continues to build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of a frontal system which has become stationary across extreme south Florida. Much drier slightly cooler air has advected over the region which will lead to relatively cool comfortable conditions overnight across much of the forecast area. With the decreased cloudiness over a majority of west central Florida, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with highs around 80 north and in the mid 80s central and south.
541 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE A dry backdoor cold front will continue to advance west and southwestward this evening and overnight.
717 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A cold front enters the area late tonight into Thursday.