Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1144 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 93 69 91 / 30 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 91 66 88 / 30 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 91 65 88 / 30 30 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 87 62 86 / 40 30 10 0.
/ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/ THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN DURING THE PERIOD.
617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY. MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ALONG WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
A BONAFIED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAG THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE.
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.
LIMITED COVERAGE HOWEVER ANTICIPATED AS AXIS OF MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS CENTER REORIENTS TO OUR WEST BY LATE THU. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS DEEPER MOIST PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL INTO NM BY EXPANDING RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER FROM AN EASTERN FRONT WILL NOW TRY ITS HAND FROM THE WESTERN SIDE AS IT RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TREKKING SSW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS GA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE WATERS.
603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z.
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015 A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM located roughly along southern Missouri's Highway 60 corridor.
951 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.
727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING ROUNDING LARGE UPPER LOW NOW AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.
1152 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
704 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015 A large cyclone swirling over the Rockies provided a moisture advection / southwest flow regime over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. As the low level jet kicks in, thunderstorms will once again develop, with the better chances for areas south of Interstate 44.
709 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS FAR AS THE SFC SETUP THERE IS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SHOULD PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
1000 AM MST SAT MAY 16 2015 THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A DEEP, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE IDAHO/WYOMING/UT BORDER AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST.
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. PROGS SHOW THIS HIGH MOISTURE AIR MASS TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH TO THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE PWAT STILLS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 1.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 67 82 65 / 70 40 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 65 82 65 / 50 40 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 66 82 66 / 60 40 50 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 61 81 63 / 50 40 50 30.
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
600 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER SRN LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE DAY. WEAK WAA AND PARTIAL SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER BY THE LAKES AS IS TYPICAL). WARM FRONT ITSELF WILL WASH OUT.
743 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ WV SAT LOOP SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN NEVADA. THE SOUTHERN RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. I HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL POPS AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS WELL TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
942 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE THIN NATURE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER AT TIMES COULD ALLOW A TAD MORE WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HELPED TO BRING THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO WAS FINALLY ON A WEAKENING TREND. A FLOW AROUND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST PROVIDED A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER-48.
659 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION AND TO A LIMITED EXTENT THE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ON RADAR NORTH OF I-80 AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA PER RADAR AT 08Z. WARM FRONT IS LOCATED VERY NEAR TO I-80 AND ISNT MOVING MUCH. TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL GROW SOMEWHAT AND THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH RAPIDLY. THIS PROVIDES A MORE CURVED HODOGRAPH IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A LARGER SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT. DEEP VERTICAL QG LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER.
1105 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DEEP RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD/WRN ATLC. AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS LCL AIRMASS WHILE BLOCKING OUT ANY MEANINGFUL MID LVL VORT RIPPLES. HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND.
WHICH ARE FAR COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING ROUNDING LARGE UPPER LOW NOW AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SSE WINDS ~12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS OR HIGHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT AEX/LFT/ARA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 40-50%. /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. PROGS SHOW THIS HIGH MOISTURE AIR MASS TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH TO THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE PWAT STILLS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 1.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 247 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THIS RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD IS BLOCKED BY A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. BUT WILL REQUIRE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE LOW ENERGY AIRMASS.
1201 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE FIRST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE SFC DRYLINE THIS MORNING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SIERRA WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES SOME FOCUSING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY TODAY.
UPPER LOW IN ERN IDAHO STILL THROWING MOISTURE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IDAHO AND POPS WILL CONTINUE HIGH TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES. LOWER POPS TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS EAST.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN U. A LOW CENTER WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO WYOMING AND MONTANA TODAY.
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD CURRENT RADAR AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER TOP OF FLATTENED RIDGE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO AMPLIFY A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKEST AND RAINFALL MOST WIDESPREAD, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL CRACK THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 CAP HOLDING SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S EXPECT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED.
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT BUT THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO BE MUCH FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
920 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT NEGATIVELY ACROSS HE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED WESTERN KANSAS AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ATOP A MODESTLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WITH A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
1240 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS INTO MOST OF THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPREADING INTO EAST TN THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET IN TO THE LOWER 80S HOWEVER.
MVFR/IFR CIGs expected for a short time this morning but winds will shift from the southwest bringing an early end to the low clouds with VFR conditions the remainder of the TAF period. Weak Pacific cold front associated with the upper system will move southeast through the forecast area tonight.
SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. TORNADIC THREAT IS VERY LOW WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IS A LITTLE TOO SLOW BRINGING THE UPPER LOW NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND EC LOOK BETTER BUT THERE ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS ON PRECIPITATION THREAT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. AS FAR WEST AS THE LOW TRACK LOOKS. IT DOES LOOK WINDY RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND EXTENDS OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS IS A SIMILAR POSITION FOR THE LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL RECENTLY.
444 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEAR SOUTHWEST NEVADA. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. THOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA TODAY. ANOTHER TRAILING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE WARMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW BUT TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
/ISSUED 458 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A dry line has pushed east into the forecast area early this morning beneath a broad upper level low pressure area.
THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HELPED TO BRING THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO WAS FINALLY ON A WEAKENING TREND. A FLOW AROUND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST PROVIDED A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER-48.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER TOP OF FLATTENED RIDGE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO AMPLIFY A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND INCREASED WARMING IN THE 85H-70H LAYER THAT WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS DRY LAYER MAY SERVE TO SLOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL TEMPS CAN REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S. /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME FOR TODAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW JUXTAPOSED BY DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
1032 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS HIGH IS GENERATING MODERATE EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS IN PLACE ALOFT. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SOULD PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
910 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 FAIR AND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY.
759 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATED A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK ANY INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH SO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COOLER NIGHT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO JUST EAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT /STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON NORTHEAST TOWARDS TEXARKANA AS OF 7 PM CDT/ SAGS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
747 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. IT THEN APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACROSS NW OHIO WILL SEE THE FRONT PASS BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP TO THE LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE STRONGLY FELT TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
930 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH A LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM ANNAPOLIS- WASHINGTON DC-FRONT ROYAL.
1155 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance The cold front/dry line was located along the Wabash River and southwest just to the west of Paducah at 8 PM. At 19z (2 pm CDT) Wednesday, the leading edge of the cold front stretched from west of Poplar Bluff Missouri to near Flora Illinois. The last surge of light to locally moderate precipitation will move in a 25 to 40 nm swath along and either side of the cold front, backing into the colder air over parts of Southern Illinois during the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. As the forcing from the upper low exits northeast of the area after midnight, the ageostrophic/baroclinic response will lessen markedly reducing precipation chances sharply as the trough axis passes through the area quickly.
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES BY THE EVENING.
849 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 The cold front/dry line was located along the Wabash River and southwest just to the west of Paducah at 8 PM. At 19z (2 pm CDT) Wednesday, the leading edge of the cold front stretched from west of Poplar Bluff Missouri to near Flora Illinois. The last surge of light to locally moderate precipitation will move in a 25 to 40 nm swath along and either side of the cold front, backing into the colder air over parts of Southern Illinois during the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. As the forcing from the upper low exits northeast of the area after midnight, the ageostrophic/baroclinic response will lessen markedly reducing precipation chances sharply as the trough axis passes through the area quickly.
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES BY THE EVENING.