Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite imagery shows a lot of high clouds streaming over the state at this time, but even so, current temperature readings are running several degrees cooler than at yesterday at this time. Temps are ranging from the lower 40s to around 50 at area airports. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern over the next couple of days.
The High Wind warning for tonight remains on track as a low-level jet strengthens perpendicular to the mountains. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 52 36 46 34 / 100 90 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 51 37 44 34 / 90 90 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 51 36 43 33 / 90 90 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 55 35 42 32 / 80 90 30 30 30 TN.
Light snow showers will continue in the mountains with northwest facing slopes receiving the highest snow totals. An upper level low will intensify over the central plains today leaving nrn Co in northwest flow aloft. Highs today will be cooler as readings drop back into the 40's over nern CO. Highs should be able to push into the lower 50s across most of the plains. The warm advection and slight ridging/drying will also bring an end to any lingering snow showers in the high country before noon.
245 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 WV imagery shows a highly-amplified upper trough over the central CONUS, buttressed by a ridge over the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft. Temperatures will top out this afternoon just above normal and generally increase over the weekend as the west coast ridge builds east.
The lapse rates do improve slightly between 700mb and 500mb, and this could support some elevated thunderstorm activity later today as the main trough axis moves through. The highest probabilities will remain over the coastal waters south of Louisiana this afternoon and evening where a bit more low level instability is expected to develop. Sent an update to reflect the lowering of thunderstorm risk at most of the terminals today.
As the upper low currently over KS becomes negative tilt and tracks to srn IN, more accumulating light snow is expected. At times the mid levels may dry out enough for a lack of ice, hence light rain or brief freezing rain where sfc temps are below freezing.
606 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest this evening and will cross the area tonight into Friday morning.
Expect cool and breezy conditions Friday as the system continues pulling away from the region and high pressure begins building in.
Surfaces will remain slippery, especially in rural areas, mainly from last night into today's fog, mist, freezing drizzle, and light snow. For tonight, the weak inverted trough still remains over west central Minnesota, keeping some lift in that area. This may make it hard to scour out the low level moisture/clouds.
The main forecast concern is light snow into the evening and then the potential for light freezing drizzle. There appears to be some potential for a few flurries, or flurries mixed with light freezing drizzle later tonight, when mid level lift will be less - and we lose some ice introduction aloft. Cloud cover should try to decrease Friday, mainly on the western fringes of the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds eastward into the eastern parts of SD, NE and KS.
315 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 The main forecast concern is light snow into the evening and then the potential for light freezing drizzle. There appears to be some potential for a few flurries, or flurries mixed with light freezing drizzle later tonight, when mid level lift will be less - and we lose some ice introduction aloft. Cloud cover should try to decrease Friday, mainly on the western fringes of the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds eastward into the eastern parts of SD, NE and KS.
400 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 High pressure will shift to our east tonight. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure retuning for the weekend.
High pressure over the area Friday with light winds and abundant sunshine.
Low pressure centered just southeast of Kansas City will slowly meander east over the upcoming day, crossing southeast Illinois early Friday afternoon. A diffluent zone aloft northeast of the upper low should bring an increase in precipitation intensity overnight. Slightly milder air has wrapped well into the northeastern quadrant of the low circulation bringing temperatures into the mid 30s in portions of central IL this afternoon, and even upper 30s to around 40 in eastern IL.
By the 7 to 10 day time frame, a large upper level longwave trough is progged by amplify over the upper Midwest and eastern United States.
Area VWPs indicate the low level jet is beginning to ramp up tonight with 850mb flow near 35-40 knots at FFC, HTX, and OHX. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 53 36 45 31 / 90 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 52 37 43 32 / 90 80 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 51 36 44 32 / 90 70 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 53 35 41 30 / 40 90 40 40 30 TN.
Cloud deck and breezy conditions precede a weak warm frontal passage overnight tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds into the High Plains and adjacent High Terrain.
314 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Ridging will continue to build in tonight. The mountains will still see some snow showers, but the lower elevations will only see some higher cloud cover.
A cold front is now in the process of moving southeast across Acadiana and will exit the area by late afternoon.
This ridging, along with a decrease in moisture, should decrease the coverage of snow showers in the mountains later tonight and Friday. 700mb temperatures will increase to near 0 degrees Celsius across the plains tomorrow afternoon under the ridge aloft. This, along with light winds at the surface, will allow highs to reach the low to mid 50s with dry conditions. Upper level moisture will increase ahead of an approaching trough tomorrow afternoon.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a pretty well developed upper level low across Kansas. This closed low will quickly deepen by 00Z as its southward plunge begins to take more of an easterly track as the trough starts to lift off to the northeast. Current radar imagery is mirroring the higher resolution models this afternoon and we should start to see snow begin to fill in across northern Missouri over the next few hours. The column will fully saturate by this evening and with the highest omega values located near the saturated dendritic zone snowfall rates will be fairly high. As we begin to loose cloud ice on the backside of the system late Friday morning and afternoon, we could see a bit of little freezing drizzle and some flurries develop.
Light snow will gradually exit to the east tonight as high pressure dips into central SD.
Have adjusted wind speeds tonight in these areas, but overall the trend should become more focused in the gap locations (Livingston and Nye) as building ridge brings backing winds aloft. JKL Ridging will continue to build in tonight. The mountains will still see some snow showers, but the lower elevations will only see some higher cloud cover.
Cloud deck and breezy conditions preceed a weak warm frontal passage overnight tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds into the High Plains and adjacent High Terrain.
Kinematic/deformation forcing will continue to bring precip, mainly in the form of snow to the north of the low path, including across southeast MO. The only concern would be very shallow melting due to surface wet bulbs just above freezing, but nocturnal cooling and more precip should cool things just enough where that should not be a concern. The slightly cooler column versus yesterday may be sufficient to boost snow ratios just a bit, so accumulations by early Friday morning may reach 2-3 inches before waning through the day, and possibly briefly flipping to light freezing drizzle northeast by evening as the deeper moisture and ice introduction exits. Weak flow and short wave ridging will lead to a dry weekend after this system and fairly seasonal temperatures.
301 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 The Winter Weather Advisory over south central Missouri will come to an end at 00z as snowfall diminishes from west to east as the dry slot associated with the Kansas upper low reduces cloud ice. The diminishing cloud ice will set the stage for a bit of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle as the snow diminishes. Amounts/impacts are expected to be minor as road temperatures have warmed to or above freezing. Attention then turns to the upper low itself that will move southeast through the Missouri Ozarks overnight. However as the upper low shifts overhead anticipate that rates over west central into central Missouri to offset temperatures leading to accumulating snowfall.
Current temperature trends are generally warmer than yesterday at this time, especially across the sunnier regions including Monterey and San Benito counties. Last hour both MRY and SNS reported 64 degrees, six degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next couple of days.
Will continue to mention some MVFR/IFR fog in the TAFs late tonight but will lean towards TEMPO wording for the lowest visibilities and ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 329 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): High pressure will spread over the area, with a previous frontal boundary well to the southeast. Mid level ridging just to the west will glide east over the area in the short term. Though the upper valley could see some of the fog, most will develop over the lower valley where slightly better moisture will remain. Fair weather will prevail on Friday, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and temperatures near normal in the lower to middle 70s.
518 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Upper level trough axis continues to sit overhead as of mid afternoon with the mid level cut off low slowly sinking south. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a bit of a dry and warm layer around the 6-7 kft range, which depending on how saturated it is, has kept precipitation type flipping between light snow and freezing drizzle. While this layer does appear to saturate a bit by later this afternoon, we begin to loose saturation from aloft by this evening, keeping the potential for periods of light freezing drizzle within the broader light snow. Boundary layer moisture remains fairly high into the overnight hours, particularly in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. This area is also highlighted by the highest SREF probabilities with a chance for localized dense fog to return.
By tonight, cutoff, southern stream upper low pressure is forecast just west of the MO /MS-junction with a broad swath of warm, moist advection on its van blanketing the OH Valley and Great Lakes. initiation of snow, or a rain/snow mix, which may persist over the higher elevations for a couple hours given dynamic cooling via upslope. The exception would be for the eastern ridges, where deterministic models suggest the presence of strong wind beneath the inversion. Otherwise, widespread rain can be expected with model-world agreeing on rapid saturation over the area as the systems "trowal" is shoved over the region with the advance of the low through Friday.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ WV imagery shows a highly-amplified upper trough over the central CONUS, buttressed by a ridge over the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft. Temperatures will top out this afternoon just above normal and generally increase over the weekend as the west coast ridge builds east.
With the approach of a cold front, winds are expected to veer at the surface from ERLY to SERLY while remaining fairly light. Easterly surface winds are forecast to veer overnight to light SERLY with the approach of a cold front that will pass through the area Fri night. Current ENE winds will continue to veer overnight to E/ESE/SE ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds veer southerly ahead of another cold front and remain near 10 knots.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): High pressure will spread over the area, with a previous frontal boundary well to the southeast. Mid level ridging just to the west will glide east over the area in the short term. Though the upper valley could see some of the fog, most will develop over the lower valley where slightly better moisture will remain. Fair weather will prevail on Friday, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and temperatures near normal in the lower to middle 70s.
/issued 230 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ An upper level low is located across SERN KS and wrap around precipitation (mostly virga) has continued to affect our northeastern zones. This low will continue to move east allowing for drier air to continue to filter in via northwesterly flow aloft.
438 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough axis moving very slowly eastward, with upper ridging building behind in across the central to northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through tonight and Friday as the ridge builds in.
243 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough axis moving very slowly eastward, with upper ridging building behind in across the central to northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through tonight and Friday as the ridge builds in.
332 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 At 21Z, water vapor imagery showed an upper low spinning over central Kansas with some mid level dry air wrapping in over eastern parts of Kansas. Locations seeing precipitation have reported a mix of rain and snow as temperatures remained above freezing near the surface this afternoon. Northwest winds will allow temperatures to drop after sunset and sub freezing conditions are expected this evening and tonight. As the low continues to spin southeastward, mid level moisture will wrap around and into the area. The upper trough will continue to move off to the east Friday night while high pressure at the surface expands across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
/Issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Current satellite analysis plotted with the RAP 500 mb heights depicts agreement in the development of an H5 closed low over central Kansas that is strengthening. Going down to 700 mbs the winds speeds are reaching 50 kts up stream of the low. Temperatures will reach a high in the low 50s today before dropping to the 20s overnight.
/issued 258 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Rain will gradually shift east through the evening hours as a weak trough moves through the Mid-South. Behind the trough, an upper level low will move into the region and will bring a second round of rain beginning late tonight into the day on Friday.
At 21Z, water vapor imagery showed an upper low spinning over central Kansas with some mid level dry air wrapping in over eastern parts of Kansas. Locations seeing precipitation have reported a mix of rain and snow as temperatures remained above freezing near the surface this afternoon. Northwest winds will allow temperatures to drop after sunset and sub freezing conditions are expected this evening and tonight. As the low continues to spin southeastward, mid level moisture will wrap around and into the area. The upper trough will continue to move off to the east Friday night while high pressure at the surface expands across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Winds over the lower elevations tonight and on Fri should be relatively light.
257 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 Rather dynamic fcst period on tap as we start with widespread showers given both upper trough forcing and low level isentropic upglide against a strong CAD wedge. Storm total QPF came in on the high side for the far NE mtns and given some of the higher rainfall amounts seen this morning capped near three quarters of an inch in last 6 hrs, thought it was best to do the same which ends up isolated 1.
1045 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough axis moving very slowly eastward, with upper ridging building behind in across the central to northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through tonight and Friday as the ridge builds in.
in response to close upper low wobbling down into the MS river valley. Upper low will spin more showers down across the northwest toward morning, and through much of Friday, before ending as a wintry mix Upper Cumberland before ending Friday night.
/issued 938 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. Additional showers will arrive toward morning, as the upper low center moves into southeast MO. /issued 258 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Rain will gradually shift east through the evening hours as a weak trough moves through the Mid-South. Behind the trough, an upper level low will move into the region and will bring a second round of rain beginning late tonight into the day on Friday.
The trough axis is progged to swing through the area overnight and into early tomorrow morning. Expect cool and breezy conditions Friday as the system continues pulling away from the region and high pressure begins building in.
1058 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Upper level trough axis continues to sit overhead as of mid afternoon with the mid level cut off low slowly sinking south. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a bit of a dry and warm layer around the 6-7 kft range, which depending on how saturated it is, has kept precipitation type flipping between light snow and freezing drizzle. While this layer does appear to saturate a bit by later this afternoon, we begin to loose saturation from aloft by this evening, keeping the potential for periods of light freezing drizzle within the broader light snow. Boundary layer moisture remains fairly high into the overnight hours, particularly in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. This area is also highlighted by the highest SREF probabilities with a chance for localized dense fog to return.
Well defined corridor of light precip continues to rotate around the upper low currently centered near far NE OK.
Expect mostly SKC conditions through early to mid morning Friday before some lower clouds begin to shift into our northern terminal sites from the wrap-around cloud cover coming in behind an upper level low pivoting across northern Arkansas. /issued 955 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ A deep upper level cyclone center is dropping into southwestern Missouri currently and the atmospheric "dry slot" to the south of the center is advancing through the Four State region and doing a good job of finally clearing out the clouds. Temperatures may be able to sneak down to freezing in sheltered spots northwest of I-30, although elsewhere lows by dawn should range from the mid to upper 30s.
While radar returns are abundant, it's likely rain won't reach the ground across eastern Ohio until the low- levels moisten with the arrival of the low-level jet around daybreak. By tonight, cutoff, southern stream upper low pressure is forecast just west of the MO /MS-junction with a broad swath of warm, moist advection on its van blanketing the OH Valley and Great Lakes. initiation of snow, or a rain/snow mix, which may persist over the higher elevations for a couple hours given dynamic cooling via upslope. The exception would be for the eastern ridges, where deterministic models suggest the presence of strong wind beneath the inversion. Otherwise, widespread rain can be expected with model-world agreeing on rapid saturation over the area as the systems "trowal" is shoved over the region with the advance of the low through Friday.
Winds will continue to diminish as surface ridging moves slowly over the area towards tomorrow morning. Surfaces will remain slippery, especially in rural areas, mainly from last night into today's fog, mist, freezing drizzle, and light snow. For tonight, the weak inverted trough still remains over west central Minnesota, keeping some lift in that area. This may make it hard to scour out the low level moisture/clouds.
330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 A closed low over MO will drift NE to the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours.
The low pressure area in central MO will continue to slowly move east and then turn ENE across IN tomorrow evening into Sat morning. Low pressure centered just southeast of Kansas City will slowly meander east over the upcoming day, crossing southeast Illinois early Friday afternoon. A difluent zone aloft northeast of the upper low should bring an increase in precipitation intensity overnight. Slightly milder air has wrapped well into the northeastern quadrant of the low circulation bringing temperatures into the mid 30s in portions of central IL this afternoon, and even upper 30s to around 40 in eastern IL.
The clouds will continue to clear acrs SW LA through midnight, with the clearing line advancing east of the lower Atchafalaya between midnight and 3 AM. Cooler air will continue to spill into the region tonight, with lows on track to fall to near 40 acrs the northern zones to middle/upper 40s along and south of I-10. A cold front is now in the process of moving southeast across Acadiana and will exit the area by late afternoon.
Highs may climb into the lower 50s across portions of central KS while much of northeast KS remains in the 30s. This will bring an increase in pops to the region although there has been a subtle trend southward with the mid/upper trough which may keep the higher impacts south of our forecast area.
224 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Showers continue across the area as an area of positive vorticity advection swings through the broad trough/ upper low. The upper low is currently centered over north central Arkansas and south central Missouri. There should be a break in the rain between the broad rain shield that we've experienced over the last several hours and the showers associated with the upper low. The upper low will wobble northeastward along the Ohio River Valley today and be located along the central Illinois/ Indiana border by 00z.
938 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. Additional showers will arrive toward morning, as the upper low center moves into southeast MO. /issued 258 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Rain will gradually shift east through the evening hours as a weak trough moves through the Mid-South. Behind the trough, an upper level low will move into the region and will bring a second round of rain beginning late tonight into the day on Friday.
Areas west to the Colorado state line will see temperatures closer to the 20 degree mark under clear skies as high pressure builds into the high plains out of Colorado. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s northeast to southwest with colder air seeping into the central and north central portions of Kansas keeping areas along the I-70 corridor cooler.
A cold front will move through the state early Friday morning from the NW with winds switching to the W/NW with gusts upwards of 20 knots. Patchy fog may reduce visibilities down to IFR over SErn terminals ahead of the cold front.
259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Initially colder temperatures today quickly begin to give way to progressively warmer temperatures through the weekend. Have kept with the lower side of guidance also due to stratus being slow to clear the area. Only a narrow zone of a relative dry airmass will allow for partial clearing into the evening and overnight period as the upstream ridge dampens within broader northwest flow aloft. Even so, some relative height rises suggest an overall warmer airmass is lifted poleward.
312 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 Closed low over southern Missouri will modulate Southeast Michigan weather through the weekend.
Area VWPs indicate the low level jet is beginning to ramp up tonight with 850mb flow near 35-40 knots at FFC, HTX, and OHX.
High pressure will shift east tonight. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure returning for the bulk of the weekend.
228 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Region of light rain/snow continues to push eastward across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the upper low centered over northwest Arkansas slowly exits the region.