Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These storms are expected to continue through the afternoon, but wane as diurnal heating ends at sunset and the trough axis pulls east- northeast. Weak ridging will remain over Texas through Monday, with clear to partly cloudy skies, near normal lows, but slightly warmer than normal afternoon highs.
419 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure draped across New York State will slowly drift east and off the Atlantic coastline through midweek. high pressure will remain anchored directly overhead today with attendant strong subsidence and plentiful dry air supporting nearly full sunshine. with readings peaking in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. With overnight lows should be a category or so milder and range from the lower 40s across the lake plains to the mid 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country. The dominant weather feature this week will be a strong surface and upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS, providing a continuation of fair and dry weather.
223 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry high pressure will be in control of our weather the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Dry high pressure is directly overhead, and it will dominate our weather through Monday with clear sky. However, significant ridging will begin aloft, which will allow temperatures to begin gradually moderating.
Upper level trough and fairly strong short wave to move across the region tonight into Sunday. The upper level trough will then move southward across the area Sunday into Sunday night with additional showers. Freezing levels will be just above 5 kft MSL with -20C heights only around 15 kft MSL through the period so graupel or even a couple lightning strikes will be possible with any stronger showers, especially near ALW and PDT.
The traditional cold spots in Potter and McKean Counties are already AOB freezing per 05z meso obs 31-32F. Max/min temperatures will trend warmer/above early Oct. A cold front associated with a northern stream trough appears to offer the next chance for rain later in the week, but it does not look to be significant/appreciable.
201 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Low pressure departs as high pressure builds from the west overnight and Sunday. This high pressure over the northeast builds slowly east through the upcoming week, moving offshore by mid week as a cold front approaches from the west.
A weak trough is currently moving in from the northwest as see by satellite. This first trough will bring isolated rain/snow showers to the area today. Additional energy over the next few days will reinforce the trough and help to strengthen it with daily chances for precipitation. First trough is making its way across the Great Basin this morning. Right now all that is evident of this trough is an increase in clouds cover, especially across the northern tier of the state. As additional energy moves in from the northwest, it will help to dig the trough further south and deepen. As the trough deepens on Monday, snow levels will drop to valley floors Monday morning, before rising in the afternoon.
448 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with cold front now moving southeast into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough continuing to dig south across the western US, with strong jet from the WA/OR coast to the Four Corners area. Cold front will move from west to east across the forecast area through the morning and midday hours, exiting south central SD early to mid afternoon.
Road surface temps are well above freezing so black ice/freezing fog should not be an issue. Max/min temperatures will trend warmer/above early Oct. Abundant warmth and dry wx will continue through midweek given well above normal upper ridge/heights. There remains a good deal of model variability concerning the northern stream flow which should suppress the anomalous ridge and send a cold front through the area toward the end of the week. Timing of the late-week front and low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes over the weekend remains uncertain - and therefore will utilize multi-model blend. Sub-freezing temps over the northern tier producing a widespread frost, with patchy frost impacting deeper valleys of central/southern mountains.
The first of October is starting off seasonably cool with a surface analysis showing high pressure centered over western New York state. By dawn, expect most if not all locations to dip into the low to mid 40s, outside of the Louisville metro where upper 40s are likely. For today, the high pressure will continue moving east over the Northeast and a easterly to slight southeasterly wind will develop over Kentucky and southern Indiana. The air mass will moderate compared to yesterday, so plan on highs to reach the middle 70s with the typical warmer spots in the upper 70s.
240 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes.
247 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region today. This high will remain over the region into mid week providing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures.
226 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry high pressure will be in control of our weather the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Dry high pressure is directly overhead, and it will dominate our weather through Monday with clear sky. However, significant ridging will begin aloft, which will allow temperatures to begin gradually moderating.
High pressure will continue to remain in control today with an upper level ridge continuing to build across the eastern CONUS. Low dewpoints and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to dip into the lower 50s across the southern valley and the 40s elsewhere.
216 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north and northeast through mid week. Lows ranging from mid 40s in the typically cooler locations to upper 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure draped across New York State will slowly drift east and off the Atlantic coastline through midweek. high pressure will remain anchored directly overhead today with attendant strong subsidence and plentiful dry air supporting nearly full sunshine. with readings peaking in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. With overnight lows should be a category or so milder and range from the lower 40s across the lake plains to the mid 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country. The dominant weather feature this week will be a strong surface and upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS, providing a continuation of fair and he dry weather.
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure is beginning to drift east/southeast of the region, and is allowing a stronger pressure gradient to arrive. Although guidance does continue to hold onto the elevated heights through tonight, before the upstream trough nudges east. Breezy south winds to 25 kts through Tue will be likely, as strong low pressure system slowly crosses south central Canada. Once the low moves lifts into eastern Canada the middle of the week, expect winds to diminish to 20 kts or less as pressure gradient weakens.
Based on deterministic NWP models and GFS ensemble mean, the upper pattern will be characterized by continued development of high amplitude with a trough over the WRN CONUS and ridge axis extending from the NERN CONUS SW across the TX. A weak trough over the ERN Gulf of Mexico per MSAS is predicted to move WWD during the period and approach the MSA/CWA Monday. SPoRT CIRA/GOES-16 depict high PWAT values/copious moisture over the SWRN Gulf/Bay of Campeche and near the foregoing trough.
Dry and Warmer. Afternoon highs today, with afternoon sun, will be much closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 80s.
Weather pattern this morning features a broad long-wave trough over the western CONUS, a H5 ridge over the Mississippi River Valley, and a weak ridge over northern mexico battling a TUTT low in the south- central Gulf of Mexico. With the weak ridge over south Texas and the troughing over the western CONUS too far north for any discernible lift across the region as PWATS remain near 1. By Monday, the TUTT low over the south-central Gulf will shift southwest and erode the weak ridge over south Texas and north Mexico. With the western CONUS trough flow pattern, this will then open up the Gulf moisture feeding pattern in to Texas.
317 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will shift further away from the region today, allowing winds to veer from easterly to southeasterly. Due to the increasingly southerly component to the boundary layer flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and a slowly approaching cold front, winds will not drop off after sunset as they have the past few nights.
542 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will shift further away from the region today, allowing winds to veer from easterly to southeasterly. Due to the increasingly southerly component to the boundary layer flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and a slowly approaching cold front, winds will not drop off after sunset as they have the past few nights.
Max/min temperatures will trend warmer/above early Oct. Abundant warmth and dry wx will continue through midweek given well above normal upper ridge/heights. There remains a good deal of model variability concerning the northern stream flow which should suppress the anomalous ridge and send a cold front through the area toward the end of the week. Timing of the late-week front and low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes over the weekend remains uncertain - and therefore will utilize multi-model blend.
There has been a slight southward trend of the position of the low, but overall decent model agreement. Wrap around also will bring sub freezing temperatures to the western zones, with the potential for accumulating snow. Best chance for snow accumulation will be in the higher elevations of the Little Rockies, but could see some snow as far east as Jordan.
446 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Continuing to track a cold front as it moves across western Kentucky early this morning.
246 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Clear to partly cloudy skies over the CWA with an upper trough axis moving east of the area.
327 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front currently along a line from Rusk, Texas, to El Dorado, Arkansas.
A fast-moving cold front is currently moving through the region, with FROPA expected at HOB/MAF by issuance, and all other terminals by 09-10Z. Unfortunately, this will come to an end overnight as a strong cold front backdoors into the region, courtesy of an upper trough currently moving thru the upper midwest as per WV imagery.
259 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Intense low pressure (975 mb) was located over Lake Superior with a strong cold front extending to Indiana and then to Texas. Intense low pressure in the northern Great Lakes will keep strong westerly winds blowing for much of the day. Tonight: Winds will diminish rapidly by sunset (which is really early these days!) as the cyclone fills and the atmosphere decouples.
/Issued 303 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017/ First in a series of cold fronts approaches the forecast area tonight.
1030 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017 Cold front has pushed well south and east of the Cheyenne CWFA this afternoon with winds and snow easing. All wind and winter headlines have been dropped this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Warmer temperatures Tuesday as we transition back to a more westerly downsloping weather pattern.
Strong high pressure centered to the west of Utah will maintain a stable northerly flow across the Great Basin through the end of the week. The high amplitude upper ridge along the west coast will maintain a stable northerly flow aloft across the region through the end of the work week. Valley fog will gradually become an issue, with the higher northern valleys likely the first areas to experience the increase. Temperature trends look to be flat in the lower northern valleys throughout the week. High elevations as well as some of the higher valleys will benefit from warming aloft with a more pronounced upward trend to temps.
The showers and tstorms will be ending over the next hour, along with the cold front reaching Lake MI. A Broken line of showers and sct tstorms will move newd around 43 kts with the passage of the cold front this evening. A brief period of showers and tstorms will occur with the cold frontal passage this evening. Southerly winds will remain gusty this evening ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front. The 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates are favorable and the surface dew points are likely to sneak into the low/mid 50s. The cold front will then swing through later this evening and bring an end to the shra/tsra.
Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will become westerly and then northerly and gusty as the front passes each TAF site. /NF/ Not much has changed from the previous update, the time of the cold front and the rain moving through is still set to come into the Northern Delta between 09-11Z. /SKH/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tuesday: A cold front begins to approach the area this evening and move into the delta very early on Tuesday.
1202 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 For the 05/06Z TAF period, mostly MVFR conditions starting out the period with low stratus covering much of the area along and ahead of a cold front along the I-30 corridor as of this TAF issuance. /issued 908 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/ Cold front has finally caught ongoing convection and has allowed for increasing convergence along the front, thus the increasing coverage along the boundary itself compared to 4 hours ago.
1120 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Main concern this afternoon involves the well advertised cold front that continues moving through the area, and the associated severe threat from thunderstorms now forming along the boundary. The one caveat seen right now is evident on the special SGF sounding which shows a decent cap remaining in place, however deep layer lifting should increase as the afternoon hours continue on as the upper trough approaches from the west. The aforementioned front however will mark the end of above normal temps for the foreseeable future, as Tuesday's high temps will only warm into the lower to middle 40s.
Low pressure was located over northern Lake Superior as of this morning.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Confidence: Medium to High Models handling of current system overall decent with elongated trough over MN/IA and two low centers expected to consolidate into one as the storm deepens through 12z Tuesday. At 19z cold front nearing the I35 corridor with warm sector beginning to be pinched off to the west and strong cold air advection replacing the mild air. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Main change in upper pattern will have nearly been completed by the beginning of this period with broad amplified eastern trof in place. Average temperatures will be from 20 to 30 degrees cooler than last week and back to below normal for the first time since mid November. Main concerns will be the various waves that drop into the western side of the trof and their timing and impact on the state.
1034 PM MST Mon Dec 4 2017 Main low pressure system continues to exit the region with winds slowly diminishing over the area. At the surface, low pressure over Minnesota and high pressure across the Rockies is creating a tight pressure gradient across the CWA resulting in northwest winds at speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 55 to 60 mph. Additional snowfall for the week at this time looks to be 4 to 8 inches for the higher hills.
As the center of the high moves southwest of Oklahoma/north Texas, winds will turn more to the west, but speeds will be very light by then. /issued 837 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/ The cold front is exiting southeast Oklahoma now, but gusty north winds will persist for a while.
A cold front is pushing south and east across plains this afternoon as an upper trough digs in. Through tonight the cold front will move closer and will enter the East Texas Lakes Region around sunrise.
This will be the case this week as a ridge builds into the area.
230 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 A strong cold front was slicing across western Kentucky as of 08z, accompanied by a solid band of heavy rain showers and embedded thunder.
Travel conditions are treacherous where temperatures have fallen below freezing.
1138 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 A strong cold front has started to push into west-central and northwest Illinois this evening. A cold front and band of showers/isolated storms will track across the forecast area this evening. Once the band of precip shifts east of our area, along with the cold front, late this evening, winds will shift into the west which should start the downward trend in temperatures for the rest of this week. A rather large temperature gradient across the region tonight with lows forecast to dip to the upper 20s north to the lower 40s far southeast counties. Highs on Tuesday will rise into the upper 30s far north to the low to mid 40s far south, but the gusty winds will make it feel much colder than that.
Cold front is currently working its way towards the MS River Valley, and still looks to pass through the mid state tomorrow morning.
A strong cold front will arrive into the Hill Country around 10Z, AUS area around 11Z, and SAT/SSF/DRT 13Z-14Z. /ISSUED 1012 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/ Muggy and warm conditions for December continue tonight across South Central Texas ahead of a cold front that is currently stretches from Dallas-Fort Worth to just north of San Angelo and Midland.
Cold front has cleared the area with some lingering showers across far southeast OK.
Trended cooler on min temps for parts of the panhandle and SW Neb to account for the clearing skies and waning winds. Threat of flurries remains across the north through the day, but confidence is low due to dry air in the low levels. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area Tuesday night.
Above normal temperatures will occur today with highs reaching the lower 80s inland. A cold front to the nw will push towards southeast Georgia by late tonight bringing a chance of showers to interior se Ga.
temperatures were still in the 50s across much of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, however freezing temperatures were not far away at ONL. A pre-frontal trough. however and the cold front is pushing through with clouds filling in and falling temperatures becoming more pronounced. The h5 trough over southeast Wyoming with 130m ht falls is quickly rotating across South Dakota and Nebraska with some deepening and should be over WI by 06Z. Most lows should range from the upper teens to the lower 20s.
Due to the positioning of this high the forecast area will remain in a tight pressure gradient although not as strong as directly following the front. The 850 mb temperatures should briefly rise a few degrees today and as a result the highs should reach the mid 40s.
233 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front has exited the southeast tip of the forecast area early this morning, with the rain recently ending at Lawrenceville. While the southwest half of the forecast area may eke out some lower 40s this afternoon, temperatures will fall well below freezing tonight.
The rain is ahead of a cold front which is also moving through the region. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front so temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. By tonight, the cold front will be well south of the region so no rain is expected.
314 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected today with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs for today as the upper trough's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area, with more rain expected. A capping inversion should prevent the low level jet's strong winds from reaching the surface, though after FROPA gusts should increase to 25-35 mph with cold advection and mixing. The cold front should complete it's passage into Central PA by early evening, with rain ending. Maintained a brief chance of snow showers for the higher terrain E-SE of PIT, though little precip is expected to remain by the time cold air arrives. Variably cloudy conditions are expected through the rest of the period in cold advection and broad upper troughing.
A significant weather pattern change will unfold beginning today in the wake of the cold front that pushed across the region Monday night. Our region will come under the influence of a deep northerly to northwesterly flow as an upper level ridge amplifies along the west coast and a deep long wave trough takes shape over the eastern U.
238 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong cold front Tuesday.
The forward speed of the area of rain and the associated cold front has been slowed down by all models and have therefore made adjustments to the onset of rain by a couple hours. There remains low instability with the short wave and cold front, but enough to keep the slight chance of thunder in the grids for today and early tonight along and ahead of the cold front.
357 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong low pressure over south central Canada will drift northeast over the next 24 hours while the pattern aloft begins transitioning to a high amplitude ridge over the western U. and full longwave trof over the east. Highs will be as much as 25 degrees colder today than Monday behind the cold front in west- northwest flow. Think the high clouds over central and southern portions of the area will thin out slowly today. There doesn't look like much if any chance of precip with this second front since last night's cold front shunted all of the low level moisture well to our south.
Freezing low temperatures are expected across much of the region through Tuesday night. There could be too much wind tonight in the Las Vegas Valley for temperatures to dip below freezing.
Besides the rain, strong low-level jet will produce windy conditions across the higher elevations with breezy elsewhere. For tonight, cold air advection, left over moisture and orographic lift from northwest flow will allow rain to change to light snow showers/flurries over the higher elevations.
However, current thinking is thicker clouds and precipitation help to stabilize at least the lower atmosphere, and when also considering the weak bulk shear profiles, have opted to maintain just a low-end chance for thunder at this time.
1012 PM PST Mon Dec 4 2017 Strong high pressure will intensify over the Pacific Northwest early this week, persisting through at least the weekend. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop in the lowlands by midweek, persisting through at least the weekend. The forecast for tonight is largely on track under a building ridge of high pressure. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A high pressure ridge will continue to build in over the region. There will be high cirrus that streams in over the ridge overnight and then will thin out on Tuesday.
A relatively dry period can be expected through late Tuesday afternoon as a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves eastward across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Although a strong westerly flow aloft will prevail across southwest and south central Kansas, much drier air in the lower/mid levels will hold off any chances for precip during the period. Additionally, a general west to northwest downslope flow in the lower/mid levels will continue to reinforce the dry air mass across the high plains, limiting instability. With a series of H5 vort impulses cycling from the Northern Plains down into the Ohio River Valley as upper level troughing remains anchored across the eastern CONUS, precip chances will remain virtually absent across western Kansas through the early part of this coming weekend.
The low pressure system that brought our abrupt arrival into winter continues to push into the Great Lakes region. High temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for most locations with wind chills in the single digits or colder.
A cold front, however, is heading our way from the north.