Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Model guidance indicates that lift associated with this trough is fairly weak in nature. However the weak lift combined with cooler air aloft should set the stage for scattered storm development across southern and central arkansas Sunday morning and early afternoon. extensive cloud cover and cold pool mergers at the low-levels should reduce the instability sufficiently to allow the coverage and intensity of storms to diminish. The difference between the average cloud layer wind vector and the low-level jet is also expected to be very small.
It is a typical summer afternoon out there today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
With the higher potential for -tsra have included VCTS after 12/18Z.
1037 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.
706 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.
Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies areawide.
737 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will drop through the region tonight, accompanied by isolated showers. Behind this front, cooler and breezy weather is expected on Sunday. More showers will drop southeast into central NY with a cold front and upper level short wave. Warm front is across the far ne cwa in Oneida County. Later tonight, the main surface cold front and upper-level trough sweep through from NW-SE. Surface ridging will continue to build over the northeastern states early this coming week, effectively blocking any real moisture return from the SW.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 94 71 94 / 10 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 93 67 91 / 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 93 67 91 / 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 91 64 88 / 0 20 20 20.
Also, have bumped up some of the ridgeline winds in the coastal range between Brookings and the Illinois valley, and down into the mountains of eastern Siskiyou county, as the east winds look to really get going tonight in several model suites. Low pressure remains over the region today with temperatures running several degrees below normal but overall we see benign weather with plentiful sun and an area of scattered to broken clouds impacting areas from Roseburg westward to the coast. The trough slides east tonight and Sunday with high pressure building in and temperatures rebounding 5 to 10 degrees. The large scale pattern supports cooler than normal weather with some rain chances thereafter through the forecast.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight.
637 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 At H5 strong ridge from eastern Gulf of Mexico into central Canada. Upper closed low over southwest Canada with trough along the west coast. Closed low over southern Hudson Bay. With the cold front approaching the panhandle and a potent LLJ in place, lift should be sufficient to support at least some elevated shower or storm activity. Made little adjustment to min temps with a thermal ridge overhead, continued southerly flow, and no significant decrease in moisture. Although cooler highs are still expected, confidence was too low to make an adjustment more than a couple degrees. Main forecast challenge will be frontal passage across western Nebraska Sunday night with precipitation and cooler temperatures. Timing of cold front will be the key to ongoing precipitation.
Slight chance of late day showers or thunderstorms across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe. That means ridges and topographically favored SW-NE oriented Sierra canyons/valleys will most likely see some wind overnight. there should be more activity in our CWA Sun afternoon and evening as the upper low along the SOCAL coast moves NEwd up towards the Tahoe area or just to the S. A similar pattern for NorCal is in the offing for Sunday as the trough shifts east and fills over NorCal. Brief ridging behind the trough will result in warmer temperatures for most areas Sunday along with lighter winds by the afternoon.
804 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure today. Cold front Sunday.
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A strong area of low pressure will approach from central Canada tonight and cross the area on Sunday.
726 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight.
Strong ridging aloft and lack of moisture is the reason we are not expecting any diurnal convection today. The lack of moisture is also a contributing factor for the high temperautures in the forecast. However the ridge starts to slowly weaken Sunday with a ripple in the flow aloft. The moisture from the gulf will start to advect in the lower levels up to the 700mb height.
A small upper ridge offshore will near the coast tonight and move inland Sunday for a sunnier warmer day.
Low pressure remains over the region today with temperatures running several degrees below normal but overall we see benign weather with plentiful sun and an area of scattered to broken clouds impacting areas from Roseburg westward to the coast. The trough slides east tonight and Sunday with high pressure building in and temperatures rebounding 5 to 10 degrees. The large scale pattern supports cooler than normal weather with some rain chances thereafter through the forecast.
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 At H5 strong ridge from eastern Gulf of Mexico into central Canada. Upper closed low over southwest Canada with trough along the west coast. Closed low over southern Hudson Bay. With the cold front approaching the panhandle and a potent LLJ in place, lift should be sufficient to support at least some elevated shower or storm activity. Made little adjustment to min temps with a thermal ridge overhead, continued southerly flow, and no significant decrease in moisture. Although cooler highs are still expected, confidence was too low to make an adjustment more than a couple degrees. Main forecast challenge will be frontal passage across western Nebraska Sunday night with precipitation and cooler temperatures. Timing of cold front will be the key to ongoing precipitation.
Upper level ridge remains in place across the Central Plains. Highs on Sunday will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Cooler conditions will develop in the San Francisco Bay Area on Sunday as onshore flow begins to strengthen and low clouds/fog return to the coast.
A cold front is located across Rosebud County southward into North Central Wyoming. Ahead of this low, southeast winds are gusting to around 30 mph.
922 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight.
1200 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania overnight and early Sunday.
Weak low offshore the south Florida coast weakens with Atlantic high pressure ridge axis building back down across the area. Models indicate this will shift deeper moisture south with drier mid layer air moving into the region with the ridge.
603 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The 12Z upper air analysis indicated a mid-tropospheric ridge over the cntrl Plains. This system is expected to top the ridge over the next 24 hours with the associated frontal boundary dropping into the the northwest CWA by Sunday evening. Another hot day is in store for Sunday with the only change to forecast highs being an increase of a category over the northwest FA directly ahead of the surface cold front.
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low spinning along the Red River which will continue to provide some weak forcing through the overnight hours. Concerning thunderstorm potential overnight into early Several of the high resolution computer models continue to suggest that thunderstorms across west Texas will become better organized and move east into North Texas toward Sunday morning. /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ A weak upper level low continues to spin near Childress and the lift associated with this system has been responsible for the areas of convection this afternoon across the northern parts of the state. This activity will diminish with the loss of heating, however with the upper low to our west we expect some redevelopment late tonight and early Sunday morning to occur.
The surgace high pressure that resides over the coastal zones and adjacent Atlantic while make a subtle south and east migration offshore of north central Florida by midday Sunday. High pressure will dominate the local waters pattern for the next five days.
Satellite, radar and surface obs show a disrupted cold front over Lake Superior as of 19 UTC. The front is surging southward across eastern Lake Superior with support from the low-level marine layer. With a low-level high pressure ridge over the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley impinging on a slowing low-level trough over Lake Superior, gradient winds off the surface continue to increase this afternoon. Models suggest that a mid/upper level ridge will build over cntrl North America with a rex block developing.
NWP has not had a great handle on this weakly forced convection that has developed in/near a relative weakness embedded within a broad upper ridge. It will be hot again tomorrow, and the western zones, where somewhat drier air may attempt to move in, could see readings make it into the middle 90s, while highs elsewhere will be primarily in the lower 90s.
Mean ridging builds tomorrow. Guymon and Dalhart could see convection move eastward slowly from the higher terrain to the west. The limiting factor could be if the upper level ridge can build further north and suppress convection.
Southwest flow will continue across the region through the weekend as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. Moisture ahead of this trough will remain in place through the weekend. Deep layer southwesterly flow prevails across the Intermountain Region this evening, downstream from a pair of upper lows centered over central Alberta and off the southern CA coastline respectively.
Added slight chance POPs for most of the CWA through midnight due to a northward moving surge of higher moisture on the eastern flank of an upper low in Northern Mexico. This upper low will move into the CWA tnt and exit the CWA by Sunday aftn/eve.
A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure across the southeast US and an east/west oriented cold front dropping south out of Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Across the lower Ohio Valley, sunny skies and light southwesterly breezes prevailed, helping to push readings into the low 90s across the area. Dewpoints have mixed out into the low 60s so far, keeping heat index values to the air temperatures. Dewpoints will likely range from the mid 60s to low 70s in places and combined with highs again in the low 90s, maximum afternoon heat indices will hover in the 95 to near 100 range.
833 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development is now on a prefrontal trough sliding across Ohio this evening. That trough and the trailing cold front will cross tonight, with the potential for isolated or scattered storms still possible until passage. Building high pressure under north, northwest flow aloft will ensure a dry and seasonably cool Sunday.
1108 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The central CONUS ridge is gradually making its eastward progression with the following trough positioned across the West Coast. Center of the low will continue to deepen but has a northeastern track with a lagging southern portion running from California to the Baja.
Most locations should see overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, which is a few degrees warmer than last night. Kanofsky Warm and humid conditions are expected again on Sunday due to the influence of an expansive upper ridge whose axis extends through the bistate region. A high pressure center moving into the Great Lakes will send backdoor cold front into parts of MO/IL on Sunday night.
The wind field is rather weak in the lower half of the atmosphere with a peak wind speed of just 18 knots. Broad weakness in upper ridging will continue to allow diurnal convection each day through the first part of the work week. The weakness will shift eastward as the upper ridge strengthens over the local area mid week.
Active cluster of storms still ongoing across the Montgomery area as a westward moving outflow boundary is generating convection that is tracking eastward into the cooler side of the boundary and providing lift. /Issued 622 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ It is a typical summer afternoon out there today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Cold front is expected to work through the area tomorrow. On Sunday night, the GFS is an outlier with the surface cold frontal timing.
/ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ Gulf moisture has been a little slower to return this morning with PWat values a little lower than most models predicted beneath a broad ridge that will consolidate over Arkansas tomorrow.
After Monday, rain chances diminish going into midweek and into the weekend as upper ridge expands across the central and southern parts of the country.
Upper level ridge will work north and bring a continued dry period for much of the area. A series of waves will attempt to ride the edge of the ridge and could bring small chances for precip. Confidence still low but better shot at flattening the ridge and bringing at least some rainfall. If ridge grabs hold.
Our area remains caught between troughing on the West Coast with associated dry southwesterly flow and monsoon moisture trying to come around the western periphery of the sprawling high pressure ridge covering most of the southeast and south central U.
With no particular disturbances, flat ridging aloft, and warm air aloft and a freezing level this morning of 16k plus, this activity with be general in nature and heat/outflow driven this afternoon. 500 mb heights will continue to rise today as a ridge over the Atlantic and a ridge over the Desert Southwest link up, placing a 595 decameter ridge axis over the area. This will replace the weakness in the ridge which has been present in recent days. Given the high PWATs and slow storm movement due to a slackening of mid-level flow, isolated heavy rainfall may be possible. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values around 100.
The 13Z surface analysis indicated the synoptic cold front extended from eastern SD into central NE. This is ahead of cold front that will be moving into the area later this afternoon. The Nam and experimental HRRR suggest that another wave could move off the high Plains overnight and bring in additional thunderstorms from the west.
Meanwhile, a cold front is sliding southeast across northwest Wisconsin. The cold front will finish moving across central and northeast WI during the evening hours, before ending up over southeast lower Michigan and northern Illinois overnight. High pressure will be building in behind the front. Monday Night Through Sunday An upper ridge over the western Plains is forecast to build and move slowly east this week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Latest water-vapor channel satellite imagery indicates that axis of weak, inverted upper-level trough is currently over the western CWA as it continues to translate westward. For tonight, light ESE flow at 500-mb continues as main upper high center begins migrating eastward from NM toward OK/KS. Highest heat indices look to be in the Lower-Mid RGV and in the 104-109F range, so still rather hot.
Upper ridge is draped somewhere across the state with deeper moisture across the southern third of the state and down along the Gulf coast. These will also be slow-movers but likely short-lived due to upr ridge placement. Storms may also have a hard time developing due to upr ridge in place across the region and drier mid lvl air in place.
Low temperatures tonight should drop into the lower to mid 60s inland from the lake as drier air works into the region behind the front. High pressure will bring quiet weather and drier conditions to southern WI on Monday. Plenty of sunshine will allow for highs in the lower 80s.
307 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Upper level ridging will continue to control our weather for the next 24 hours, and really right on through the entire 7 days.
439 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Not a lot going on tonight as weak high pressure moves eastward across the forecast area. A return flow begins on Monday as the high moves off to the east. Strong baroclinic zone will be poised across eastern Nebraska to southwest Iowa to start Monday evening, and gradually will see larger-scale lift forcing increase as wave pushes around building ridge through the western plains and across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Boundary in the lower to mid levels likely to linger a bit across northwest Iowa and into southwest Minnesota, and veered low-level jet should keep a persistent threat for thunderstorms until at least midday, especially in northwest Iowa until additional support of upper wave slides away to the southeast.
Kanofsky A W-E oriented cold front is fcst to approach the MO/IA border late tonight and tomorrow morning before it becomes reoriented NW-SE and stalls across the region.
An upper trough continues to impact the west coast resulting in a subtle cooling trend across central California. Temperatures this afternoon were generally 2 to 4 degrees cooler compared to yesterday, with most San Joaquin Valley locations forecast to remain below the century mark.
Upper level ridge will be stretched across the southern conus through tonight. The upper ridge will strengthen to the west of the region on Monday, with the local area positioned on the eastern edge of the ridge. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the 100-105F range. A trough of low pressure will settle into the Southeastern states as this ridge weakens.
with the best opportunity of convection over the higher terrain of the palmer divide. cheyenne ridge and the mountains and foothills.
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 VFR conditions are expected to persist over all area TAF sites for the next several days with high pressure in place over the region.
Upper-level trough over Pacific Northwest will maintain somewhat moist and occasionally unstable southwest flow aloft over western and central MT through the TAF period.
The Pacific Northwest will remain under low pressure aloft through midweek for continued somewhat unsettled conditions. The thunderstorms over the central Cascades were moving slowly north, so the threat of thunderstorms over the lowlands in southern Snohomish County southward was starting to appear unlikely.
Strong high pressure aloft building rapidly over SW KS this afternoon with rising heights, few clouds, and much warmer temperatures. Hot upper anticyclone builds and expands across the central plains during the day, with GFS ending the day with a 598 dm high over SW Kansas at 7 pm. As the associated subsidence spreads in, clouds will be few and far between, especially SE zones closest to the approaching ridge.
At the surface, a weak cold front stretched along a line from south of KSUX to south of KBVN as of 18z with this boundary expected to stall across southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile along the cold front, confidence remains low that surface-based storm development will occur. into south-central Canada, between troughs over the northeast Pacific and eastern Canada.
1254 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Midday surface analysis showed a ridge positioned across the Carolinas with light southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley. Despite ridging aloft, low level southerly flow and associated moisture may be sufficient for isolated/widely scattered convection on Monday.
the upper ridge continues to strengthen and expand across the southern Plains.
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure along the Mason-Dixon line will bring a mostly sunny afternoon. The next weather system in the form of a potent upper level disturbance and cold front will bring increasing clouds overnight and a few showers and gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast pattern for much of this week. It does appear, along with the ridge, that a persistent lee trough over southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas will help to keep our southerly winds on the breezy side.
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a Monday cold front. Dry, warm, and eventually more humid weather can be expected tonight as high pressure completes a slide across the region. Warmer overnight temperature can be expected as the dew point increases with developing southerly flow. The aforementioned front and associated mid level trough are progged to complete approach Monday morning, and cross by late Monday night. Timing of storm initiation and encroachment of a severe-favorable deep layer shear profile with the mid level trough are also questionable, so changes to the overall outlook should be anticipated for these eventualities.
Early this morning shows the main 500 mb short wave trough moving thru northern Minnesota with the main concentration of t-storms over MN lakes country slowly moving east. Next feature is a cold front and associated short wave dropping south into central Manitoba at 08z. High pressure on Monday will give the area a welcome dry day with a good deal of sunshine.
345 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds into the North Country today and skies will continue to clear from West to East. Another cold front will move south from Canada Monday afternoon accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong.
A broad upper level low/trough will remain off the Washington and Oregon coasts during the early part of this week, coming slowly onshore into western Washington and northwest Oregon midweek before moving east later in the week.
127 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will weaken this week as high pressure, centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, builds. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At Noon PDT, skies were clear and sunny across the CWA, with some marine stratus indicated along the San Diego County coast and offshore, and patchy higher clouds near the higher mountains. Strongest wind gusts of 25-35 MPH were through the passes and over the high deserts. The upper-level trough along the West Coast, which has been very persistent this month, will weaken through the week as the subtropical high, centered over the lower Mississippi Valley amplifies.
/issued 317 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will build east into the Mid South today and remain dominant through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints mainly in the lower 70s.
303 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016 Weak high pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning.
Looking just a bit further out, the broad High Pressure circulation aloft ridges nicely across the country's mid section, and we see a strong H5 height rise, esp into our southwest FA, with 597+ DM building in.
A pre-frontal trof was noted ahead of this feature acrs central IA, and lingering outflow boundary from this morning's convective system was wavering along the IA/MO border into central IL. Thus highest coverage tonight expected along and south of I80, with secondary elevated showers and some storms to the north of I80 to maybe the highway 30 corridor.
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 An area of high pressure will drift across North Dakota tonight through Monday. This high pressure will bring dry and less humid conditions on Monday.