Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fcst soundings show mid level clouds developing overnight so went a bit warmer than the past couple of nights for MinT. 850 temps cool a bit on Monday so MaxT should be a few degrees cooler than today.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 88 71 90 / 40 30 70 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 88 70 90 / 40 20 60 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 89 70 91 / 40 20 50 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 87 66 87 / 30 10 50 20 50.
Deep east/southeasterly flow in response to a building ridge over the Plains will advect warmer temperatures and deep moisture into the CWA. The Plains' ridge will have built and positioned further east, only enhancing southerly flow over the area and keeping warm and muggy conditions in place.
The Evening Update: A little cooler today in Wrn Solano Co, otherwise max temps over most locations were just a tad warmer than yesterday throughout the rest of the CWA. But that won't happen again on Mon as the Ern Pac trof will deepen off the coast and swing across the CWA Mon nite. This will increase onshore flow and a moderately strong Delta Breeze will ensue bringing cooler temps to the inland areas. Early afternoon temperatures are around 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, especially in the northern Sacramento Valley thanks to a northerly wind. The upper trough slowly deepening over the area will cool temperatures a few degrees and allow onshore flow to continue through midweek, though dry weather will remain.
307 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Weak high pressure will build over the region today, leading to cooler temperatures and lower humidity values for Monday. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows mid 60s to lower 70s, except cooler in the mountain valleys. Today will definitely be the nicest day of the week with high pressure building across the region. Dry weather continues tonight, though clouds will increase from south to north as a warm front begins to lift toward the region. This will also be the start of a warming trend for the week; Tuesday's highs will be a few degrees warmer than today for much of the region.
Through Tuesday, the majority of the deeper layer moisture remains south of the WFO PAH forecast area, even though some moisture advection associated with the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley low pressure system is pulled back into the area.
333 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Thunderstorms are continuing to fire along the CAPE gradient early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. " The added buoyancy in those storms would have the higher probability of larger hail and possibly strong winds.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain with gentle southeast to south breezes largely preventing efficient radiational cooling. As the aforementioned low-level ridge axis lifts northward over the next 24 hours the vertical wind profile along the Florida Keys will return to a more typical uniform easterly direction. Meanwhile the low to mid levels of the atmosphere will feature somewhat stronger ridging and subsidence with anomalously warm, dry air in the crucial 850-700mb layer (dew point depressions of 8-10 degC).
A near zonal flow is in place over Utah this evening with a flat ridge over far southern Arizona. On Tuesday, as the trough ejects across Idaho and Montana, southwest winds will continue to increase across southern and central Utah while a weak cold front sags into northern Utah.
High pressure will allow the heat and humidity to continue through late week along with the threat of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Not much change in the forecast as broad high pressure will keep it hot and humid. However, weakness in the ridge and over the South will allow for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms to develop as has been the case the last couple of days. Good confidence in blend afternoon temperatures in the lower and mid 90s. Status quo for the short term with broad high pressure aloft and stagnant hot and humid airmass to result in afternoon temperatures in the lower and mid 90s and dew point temperatures around 70 degrees resulting in 95 to 100 degree afternoon heat indices.
807 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020 High pressure over Southern California will bring another warm to hot day on Monday.
Deese A broad upper trough persists over the southeast states through the period. under the upper ridge.
Highs should again reach the 90s for much of the area outside of the higher terrain. Continued hot weather is expected through much of the week as afternoon highs in the lower-90s and heat indices in the mid-90s persist.
Today is bit cooler than average. Monday and Tuesday will be a bit warmer. - Fogleman /ISSUED 615 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ With an area of upper level higher heights located along the southern California coast and an area of upper level lower heights located over the Canadian Northwest Territories, a zonal flow has set up across the northwestern states, with weak ridging dominating the region. A west southwesterly cross-barrier flow, along with troughs rotating through the pattern in association with the low in northern Canada, will favor some breezy winds across southwest Montana as well as the northern part of the state on, Monday.
220 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 The subtropical ridge was centered to the w near AZ/NM border this AM leaving ern NM/wrn TX AM in nly flow aloft with an abundance of late night convection having recently exited the CWFA. Aforementioned ridge will build e some Tue, but there will be enough mstr/instability for slight chance PoPs in the mtns and high temps will edge back up to above normal. By Wed 7h temps start to increase as the ridge encroaches farther to e with only isold PoPs warranted in the mtns.
1222 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A cold front will push off the coast tonight. High pressure will build across the region later Monday into Tuesday.
334 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Latest upper level analysis reveals troughing over the northern plains and Canada with 590-591 dam high over the desert southwest. Highs today should top out in the high 80s to low 90s for most of the area. The upper level ridge begins to strengthen some going into Tuesday but weak northwest flow will remain in place. Kept the blended offering for slight chance PoPs in the western zones where 700mb theta-E is most impressive, and should allow a storm or two to come in off the higher terrain. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer Tuesday, with low to mid 90s being common.
The activity is developing on the western side of a broad upper trof that remains the dominant synoptic feature across the southeastern U. Said trof is providing a slow, but generally uniform southeastern motion to the convection. The pattern will remain fairly uniform into Tuesday as the upper trof continues to provide enhanced precipitation across the region.
Upper level ridging over the southwest and central CONUS is still on track to dominate our weather pattern for the majority of the week. Models are currently hinting at heat indices beginning to ramp up into the upper 90s on Tuesday, and slowly increasing through the week as this persistent ridge sits pretty over the region.
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The Central Plains region remains on the eastern fringe of the subtropical ridge with weak ill-defined flow and cooler mid-level temperatures allowing for diurnally driven showers and storms to persist across the area. A mid/upper ridge is progged to remain across the southwest with it's axis extending north and east toward the Central Plains. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. The mid/upper ridge is progged to camp out across the southwest allowing our forecast area to remain on the eastern fringe of the prevailing westerlies.
Highs in the lower 90s still looks on track. For tonight, a weak lee trough will prevail. For Tuesday, the spine of 500-hPa ridge axis will stretch over western Kansas.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 80s Monday and slightly warmer Tuesday with middle to upper 80s common.
The trough axis that brought us showers and storms the last couple of days will become more diffuse while exiting to the east.
As such, the highest POPs will concentrate inland. As the weekend approaches, the upper-level pattern should begin to amplify as a trough axis deepens over the eastern CONUS. An attendant cold front will attempt to make a run at the peninsula over the weekend, but will ultimately stall and slowly fall apart.
Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the desert southwest United States will remain a persistent weather feature through much of the week for west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level shear axis/trough across southwest Kansas will rotate southeast overnight around the periphery of the ridge igniting a thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. The northwesterly steering flow aloft will favor the extreme north/northeast Permian Basin with the highest precipitation chances/totals as the complex moves southeast. By Tuesday precipitation chances will begin to diminish and continue to decrease through the end of the week as the upper level ridge strengthens and expands eastward.
Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the region, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Diurnal heating will once again lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity. Convection will also develop along the old trough axis, which will be situated across the southern third, while the main impulse will likely support more organized storms across WY, which may grow upscale into an MCS.
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A cold front moving across the northern Plains will help to initiate thunderstorms across North Dakota this evening. Best chance for any locations to see thunderstorms will be across the eastern Panhandle and Pine Ridge region where slightly better instability exists. The cold front will continue to be located across North Dakota and will slowly move into northern Nebraska. Will keep the low chance pops (near 30%) for now through the end of the week. Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes while a cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into northeast Wyoming.
Wind gusts appear to be the highest threat west and north of Billings while both hail and wind equally a threat to the east. 500mb height increases tonight and mid level winds back to the SW as a trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will provide significant UVV (upward vertical velocity) across the northern sections of our CWA, and drag a cold front across our eastern sections as well.
Monday into Tuesday we will be between an area of high pressure to our west and a weak trough axis to our east across the southeastern United States. Temperatures today will warm to the lower 90s across the coast to near 105 across Brush Country and the Rio Grande. With an onshore breeze on Tuesday, high temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler than Monday across the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads.
(Tuesday) As the upper ridge to the west, slowly begins to shift back toward the east, rain chances will end Tuesday, across West Central Texas.
A little cooler weather is expected today with a deepening upper level trough and onshore flow. Tuesday highs will be slightly below normal, with Valley highs generally in the lower 90s.
430 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Flow around a broad area of high pressure sprawled across the Southwest has a allowed drier air to spread across the region over the past 24 hours. Flow aloft shifts to the southwest and winds pick up on Tuesday as a mid-level short wave trough ejects from the long wave trough over West Coast.
Longwave pattern will feature troughing over the southeast conus and ridging over the southern Rockies.
Warmer and Drier Today. Upper ridge axis will remain across CO today with subtle weak disturbances embedded in the flow moving slowly across the region. Still some remnant moisture within the upper high for some isolated to low end scattered thunderstorms, but with moisture gradually decreasing in the low levels, thunderstorms today will be high based and confined mainly to locations in and near the mountains through this evening.
505 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Upper flow will become increasingly southwest over the next few days as an upper trof digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will initiate surface cyclogenesis as the lee trof is pushed east, tightening the pressure gradient.
Synoptic pattern has remained stagnant for the past few days with a southwest flow regime over the region and a high pressure ridge over the four corners area. An approaching Pacific Northwest trough will bring increased winds today across parts of the state. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 90s in valleys ahead of the trough axis before falling several degrees Tuesday back into the upper 80s. Gusty winds will develop this afternoon with the lower Humboldt, Humboldt county and the central Toiyabe Mountains being a bit higher in terms of winds.
328 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020 High pressure will continue the hot weather for inland areas today with patchy dense fog near the coast early this morning.
With fair amount of dry air in the mid levels, downdraft CAPE values approach 1500-2000 J/kg by late this afternoon, with the highest values south of I-90. With upper level ridge expected to develop across the desert southwest and a series of ridge riders expected to move across the northern half of the US, expect warm and sultry conditions to continue this week with periodic chances for thunderstorms.
533 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Flow around a broad area of high pressure sprawled across the Southwest has a allowed drier air to spread across the region over the past 24 hours. Flow aloft shifts to the southwest and winds pick up on Tuesday as a mid-level short wave trough ejects from the long wave trough over West Coast.
CWA continues to sit in a region of weakness between 2 ridges with ample moisture in place.
Looking at the latest guidance, still favoring some weak sely H85 downslope flow across the terrain this afternoon as low pressure remains southward across AL/GA beneath the weak upper disturbance. Otherwise, did lower max temps a degree across the lower Valley, while also increasing around a degree further north in the wake of the more favorable downslope flow. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 87 71 90 / 40 30 70 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 88 70 90 / 20 20 60 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 89 70 91 / 20 20 60 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 86 66 87 / 10 20 60 30 50.
The spin of an H5 short wave near Mobridge, South Dakota was evident on area radars early this Monday morning.
/issued 220 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ The subtropical ridge was centered to the w near AZ/NM border this AM leaving ern NM/wrn TX AM in nly flow aloft with an abundance of late night convection having recently exited the CWFA. Aforementioned ridge will build e some Tue, but there will be enough mstr/instability for slight chance PoPs in the mtns and high temps will edge back up to above normal. By Wed 7h temps start to increase as the ridge encroaches farther to e with only isold PoPs warranted in the mtns.
316 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will remain situated beneath an upper level ridge. aside from a slight amplification of the upper ridge over the Central/Southern Rockies. Expect highs a few degrees warmer than today, in the low-mid 90s.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Thunderstorms are continuing to fire along the CAPE gradient early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. " The added buoyancy in those storms would have the higher probability of larger hail and possibly strong winds.
448 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Current surface map places weak cold front across central Wyoming through the Black Hills into south central North Dakota. Ridge builds a bit towards the weekend, which should result in a few dry days.
/Issued 334 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ Latest upper level analysis reveals troughing over the northern plains and Canada with 590-591 dam high over the desert southwest. Highs today should top out in the high 80s to low 90s for most of the area. The upper level ridge begins to strengthen some going into Tuesday but weak northwest flow will remain in place. Kept the blended offering for slight chance PoPs in the western zones where 700mb theta-E is most impressive, and should allow a storm or two to come in off the higher terrain. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer Tuesday, with low to mid 90s being common.
Another aspect to this system, will be a moderately strong cold front. Temperatures could increase to a few degrees above normal by the end of the week, as a ride of high pressure develops and strengthens over the Four Corners to the south. A moderately strong cold front will also accompany the trough with increasing westerly winds.
The highest rain chances will setup over the interior later today with southwest flow in place.
High pressure will allow the heat and humidity to continue through late week along with the threat of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Surface analysis this morning shows broad and poorly organized high pressure in place across the Great Lakes and Northern Indiana. Dew points across the area remained in the lower 70s. Status quo for the short term with broad high pressure aloft and stagnant hot and humid airmass to result in afternoon temperatures in the lower and mid 90s and dew point temperatures around 70 degrees resulting in 95 to 100 degree afternoon heat indices.
Highs today forecast to reach the lower 90s before convection starts. For the rest of today, winds will shift from the SSW to a more SE component as the ridge moves a bit further west towards southwest FL and the sea breeze development backs the winds along the coast as well.
We continue to see a dry southwesterly flow aloft over the region with an upper trough off the WA/OR coast. Rather, the trough will bring moisture to the Panhandle, while we get some brisk winds across the Snake Plain.
1027 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Aviation section updated High pressure will allow the heat and humidity to continue through late week along with the threat of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Surface analysis this morning shows broad and poorly organized high pressure in place across the Great Lakes and Northern Indiana. Dew points across the area remained in the lower 70s. Status quo for the short term with broad high pressure aloft and stagnant hot and humid airmass to result in afternoon temperatures in the lower and mid 90s and dew point temperatures around 70 degrees resulting in 95 to 100 degree afternoon heat indices.
Another very warm day is in store, with temperature climbing to near 10 degrees above average supported by rising heights under broad CONUS ridging. Highs should again reach the 90s for much of the area outside of the higher terrain. Continued hot weather is expected through much of the week as afternoon highs in the lower-90s and heat indices in the mid-90s persist.
Meanwhile, higher elevation exposed ridges and mountains will experience gusty conditions during the afternoon and night, particularly during Monday as an upper disturbance moves east across the region. Mid to late week, the north winds will see some invigoration from a tightened pressure gradient as another upper trough nudges down from the northwest alongside the present ridge to our south.
Shower activity will be generally confined to the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades, though a light shower or two may develop across portions of the lowlands later this afternoon ahead of the advancing disturbance.
123 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020 High pressure will continue the hot inland weather today.
There will be a cold front which is currently crossing into Kittson County in far NW MN, moving in tonight that gives one more opportunity for forcing, but since the air mass will have been worked over with this afternoon's convection, it's hard to imagine it will have sufficient forcing to blossom any more widespread convection as it moves through and since the short wave should have moved into Canada by the time the front crosses. 5" regime which should keep the area high and dry under weak ridging.
As ridge retrogrades slowly west, the area comes into a northwest flow regime by the weekend.
This feature will help to generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the higher terrain of northern Harney, Malheur, and Baker counties in Oregon. Temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer today, then 8 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kts through 07/06Z, then NW 10-20 kts as a cold front moves through.
Wind gusts appear to be the highest threat west and north of Billings while both hail and wind equally a threat to the east. 500mb height increases tonight and mid level winds back to the SW as a trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will provide significant UVV across the northern sections of our CWA, and drag a cold front across our eastern sections as well.
138 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the FA through Tuesday, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Main chunk of the Pac NW upper trough will eject east Tues with WAA/moisture advection spreading over the region. Cool front will push through the area Tues night with slightly cooler and drier conds expected Wed most places, except for far eastern scentral SD where frontal convection will be possible in the afternoon.
-Mottice Upper flow will become increasingly southwest over the next few days as an upper trof digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will initiate surface cyclogenesis as the lee trof is pushed east, tightening the pressure gradient.
218 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated weak westerly flow across the CWA as it was on periphery of large H5 ridge across southwest CONUS. At the surface, trough axis was apparent on sfc winds and cumulus fields was draped from roughly KMNH to KIMB. Otherwise, expect another area of thunderstorms to roll off of the higher terrain and impact northwest corner of CWA.
Would you be shocked if I told you that tomorrow will be the same thing all over again? We it is as the the upper low continues to slowly drift east-northeast. Lows will remain in the upper 70s with the high dewpoints.
More energy is expected to eject out of the western developing trof overnight. For Tuesday, a strong warm front will lift northeast across the CWA during the day.
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Overall pattern this week features an active northern stream that will eventually lead to strong ridging over the middle portion of the CONUS. High pressure over the southwest CONUS early this week will keep us in weak flow aloft and at the surface. Thunderstorms will come to an end around sunset with lows staying warm in the lower 70s in more urban areas with upper 60s in outlying areas. Tuesday will be similar today only slightly warmer by a degree or two.
There will be a cold front which is currently crossing into Kittson County in far NW MN, moving in tonight that gives one more opportunity for forcing, but since the air mass will have been worked over with this afternoon's convection, it's hard to imagine it will have sufficient forcing to blossom any more widespread convection as it moves through - thinking isolated nature would be most likely though the WRF cores have some linear modes to them, so I guess we'll have to continue to watch how this evolves. 5" regime which should keep the area high and dry under weak ridging.