Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There are also echoes moving southward out of southern Manitoba Canada, that appear to be associated with a cold front. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over northern MAN. Upper low will settle into northern Ontario by 12Z Tue. Wed morning is expected to be the coldest morning with high pressure overhead. High amplitude long wave ridge over AK weakens considerably through the extended/Tue-Fri/. Also long wave trough centered over Ontario weakens and extends into the north central Atlantic by the end of the period.
Any residual elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon will dissipate in the evening hours as winds will diminish and eventually shift to northerly behind a strong cold front moving south throughout the Panhandles Christmas Eve morning. Winds should diminish by tomorrow evening as a surface anti-cyclone develops across Oklahoma. This will also help winds to shift to southerly as we go into Christmas Day morning with overnight lows on Christmas Eve night slightly warmer compared to Saturday night.
These amounts are on the lower end of advisory criteria but being the first widespread accumulating snowfall and roads busy with holiday travelers a winter weather advisory looks perfect, and in fact so much so that I have expanded it through the I-80 corridor to account for busy interstate travel despite amounts being fairly light. Overall, strong high pressure will limit impactful precipitation.
Expect much warmer temperatures this weekend followed by above normal daytime temperatures during the upcoming week.
1031 AM MST Sat Dec 23 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and west of the forecast area, with weak high pressure centered over northern SD. Upper level analysis shows long wave trough remaining across much of Canada and the northern US, with low centered over southern Hudson Bay.
Another foggy night possible over portions of inland Southwest An area of high pressure continues to be anchored over the region as a frontal boundary pushes in from the northwest. As the high gives way to the approaching front propelled by mid-level troughs over the coming days, cloud cover and rain chances will increase before the front stalls over the area midweek.
Lows will drop below zero where skies are clear and winds nearly calm, but about ten degrees warmer otherwise. A cold front will move slowly south into northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon, while the rest of the area has some middle or high clouds. Sunday Night Through Saturday Main concern for this period will be the arctic cold front passage late Sunday night into Christmas morning, then the bitter cold for much of the week. For Sunday night, models are indicating the arctic cold front sweeping across the region late Sunday night into Christmas morning.
Still expect some sunshine today with temperatures cooler than yesterday as caa sinks into the area. The next cold front drops into northern MN tonight and should spread clouds into at least the northern CWA overnight. The arctic cold front is still on target to drop south through the region on Sunday.
Few to scattered high clouds will continue to move from southwest to northeast through Sunday as a long-wave trough moves over the area and eastern Pacific moisture travels along the base of the upper level disturbance. At the surface, a wind shift is expected later this evening from north to south in response to a weak high pressure system across the middle Texas coast and a low pressure system moving across the southern Plains. In the wake of the cold front, expect breezy to gusty north winds and temperatures dropping quickly with digits in the 40s by 5 PM over parts of the Hill Country.
Some of the high resolution short range models and the 00z NAM suggested that, but the 00z NAM was probably too aggressive with coverage and amounts.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions continue to spread across the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon east to Wallowa county with most lingering light snow about over. Models have been consistent in the large scale pattern of an offshore ridge (though strength varies) but very inconsistent in details of disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow. The GFS has generally been dry with a stronger ridge than the ECMWF.
Across western Montana, 1-4 inches will be common with the higher values along and south of the I-90 corridor.
300 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 The cold front is moving into the far northern Red River Valley, but is a fairly slow mover.
High pressure builds into the region later tonight and especially on Sunday. The dry weather will be short lived as a low pressure system moves into the region and snow overspreads the region early Christmas morning and continues through much of Christmas Day. Dry weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region with highs in the 20s.
Due to weak cold air advection following this morning's cold front, temperatures are cooler than yesterday, but due to plenty of sunshine, temperatures should still reach the upper teens to near 20 degrees to lower 20s in most areas. Predominately westerly winds near 7-11 kts will keep wind chills during the day in the lower single digits. A scattered to broken low level cloud deck should cover most of northern CWA overnight with the cold front to our north and cyclonic flow aloft. The cold front is expected to gradually approach our area on Sunday, so we can expect to stay mostly cloudy on Sunday.
Breezy to windy around the mtns as well as falling pressures over the high plains sharpen the gradient.
Light south/southwest winds today will turn to the north 15 to 25 knots behind a cold front at KABI by 15Z Sunday, around 18Z for KSJT, and later for the rest of the area. With plenty of sunshine this afternoon, we are expecting to see temperatures several degrees warmer today, with a lee trough strengthening over the west Texas/New Mexico border. Light winds today should become more southwesterly overnight ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures overnight will be above freezing for most areas, but low-lying areas and river valleys could still see lows in the lower 30s.
Short range models suggest weak H7 frontogentic banding developing across portions of central Kansas late tonight behind a departing cold front pushing southward into Oklahoma. A reinforcment of colder air spreading southward into western Kansas behind yet another cold front will send temperatures back down into the teens(F) for lows tonight.
It's also much cooler across the region than it has been for the past week or so, with high temps today only reaching the mid 40s. While temperatures will once again reach the low to upper 40s tomorrow, it will be much colder tomorrow night with overnight lows in the mid 20s. Even worse a northwest wind of 10-15 mph will make it feel more like the upper teens! Arctic high pressure will build in for Christmas day, keeping high temperatures near 40 degrees.
217 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) Temperatures have rebounded nicely today after a cool start with most of west central Texas getting down to less than freezing this morning. This will drive a strong cold front through the area during the day tomorrow. No precipitation is expected with the cold front as it moves through, but we may see some low clouds along and behind the front for an hour or two, mainly in the Big Country. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow than what we see this afternoon. The coldest morning looks to be on Christmas with lows in the lower to mid 20s, due to excellent radiational cooling and a dry airmass, behind a strong cold front.
Mid and upper level QG forcing shows the center of the wave very close to I 80, and as you head northward into our forecast area, the low levels begin to dry out. Mixing will be fairly high for this time of year due to the aforementioned instability in the lowest kilometer, so breezy conditions will prevail. The well advertised arctic cold front will then move through Sunday night.
342 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 East-to-southeast flow is present across the Florida Keys and coastal waters as a mean-layered ridge lingers across South Florida/North Cuba. At the surface, an high pressure ridge axis bisects the Florida peninsula, and a cold front is marching eastward into the Florida panhandle and across much of the southeast as the parent low swings through New England. Temperatures across the island chain are in the low 80s and dew points are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Light to moderate breezes have gradually decreased since this morning as the weakening ridge axis sinks southward toward the Florida Keys. As the ridge axis nears Sunday night, calm to light winds may allow some measure of radiational cooling, though elevated dew points will prevent temperatures to dip lower than the mid 60s.
/DL/ The cold front has made rapid progress this morning and has now exited the CWA, with only a few light showers still lingering over the southeastern half of the area. For the remainder of the day, clouds will stick around as the upper trough axis lingers to the west and convergent cyclonic low level flow and lingering low level moisture remain. Winds will be gusty at times as the gradient remains relatively tight behind the cold front. In addition, another reinforcing trough/high pressure will be building down east of the Rockies into the high Plains into tonight. This will help bring a reinforcing cold front/dry air into the area into tonight.
133 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Cold front has finally cleared the mid state with high pressure now building in from the northwest. High pressure will remain situated to our west for the foreseeable future so that the cold air will be reinforced beginning tomorrow night as lows drop well into the 20's.
1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Light northeast winds will turn to the southeast this afternoon and this evening ahead of a strong cold front. These winds will weaken after 00 UTC, then increase from the north with the passage of a cold front after 06 UTC. /issued 402 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ The upper-level trough that brought us wintry precipitation has exited the area. In the system's wake, a warmer, but seasonably cool day is expected across the area. Breezy northerly winds behind the cold front will make it feel quite cold.
1130 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Latest 08z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from southern Ontario Canada into northern Iowa. Metars in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin are reporting flurries and low stratus clouds in associated with the cold front. First piece of energy rotates around the upper level trough into the Central Plains Sunday.
253 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 A weak cold front slides south across northern Minnesota today bringing another round of clouds and light snow today into this evening for parts of northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy overnight as the cold front slows down, though as it crosses the international border from the north tonight there may be clearing skies for parts of far northern Minnesota. High pressure builds in from the northern Plains east into the Upper Midwest on Sunday leading to partly sunny skies.
354 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 First concern is the potential of freezing drizzle across northern Oklahoma early Sunday morning. While it does not appear we should see significant precipitation, there is enough low-level moisture in place with a little lift near/behind the cold front to produce some drizzle with temperatures below freezing. There is enough uncertainty on if this will develop that will not issue any headlines, but it is worth a mention of at least a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the north between 06Z-12Z. A cold front moves through the area overnight with slightly cooler high temperatures expected tomorrow.
Next cold front arrives tomorrow with some ceiling improvement once the front passes. Current satellite trends support short term progs of maintaining a western portion of the low cloud shield before expanding again overnight.
Temperatures across the area were struggling to reach the freezing mark for all but the the West Plains area early this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will drop into the lower 20s across central Missouri with middle 20s near the Arkansas state line. Through Christmas Eve morning, light snow or flurries will be possible for most of the Ozarks, though some freezing drizzle may may occur south of Highway 60 as dry air aloft may limit cloud ice crystal development and the depth of the moisture may be limited.
Expect snow to increase markedly in coverage and intensity by this afternoon with the best banding along the strongest gradient of the baroclinic band and cold front over our central counties. Latest numerical model and ensemble solutions are in good agreement depicting a broad long wave upper trough across much of the Lower 48, with a persistent upper ridge off the Pacific coast.
Thermal profiles suggest a bit of light freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out to the south of the ICT and CNU terminals.
Cold front currently just east of BNA moving very slowly east as weak wave along it down in NW AL slows its progress.
321 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Low pressure off the Maine coast will exit into the maritimes tonight as high pressure gradually builds in from the west later tonight and Sunday.
Low level ridge axis currently over central CWA will drop to south of Lake Okeechobee Sunday as weakening front advances to the panhandle by 25/00Z, reaching northern/central CWA late Christmas Eve. With boundary layer flow become more S/SW tonight/Sunday, temps will continue to trend warmer. Continued dry Sunday with skies averaging P/C and max temps 10-12 degrees above climo, peaking near 80s along the coast to the lower/mid 80s inland.
Current satellite trends support short term progs of maintaining a western portion of the low cloud shield before expanding again overnight.
Short range models suggest weak H7 frontogentic banding developing across portions of central Kansas late tonight behind a departing cold front pushing southward into Oklahoma. A reinforcment of colder air spreading southward into western Kansas behind yet another cold front will send temperatures back down into the teens(F) for lows tonight. High pressure will move in with fairly weak winds after an initial surge of northerly winds earlier in the day. Highs Sunday will be cooler overall under the high. To the northeast, expecting cooler highs with 30s by Hays.
As this trough deepens into the central plains it will start to develop a frontogenetic boundary over Nebraska that will eventually push into our area with winds perpendicular to the isothermal gradient. This deepening of the trough also will force a southerly component to the wind ahead of the trough and create an area of isentropic lift. These two forcing mechanisms will combine with an area of moisture riding down the backside of the longwave trough to produce PoPs over northern into central Missouri overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Some limiting factors will be that the higher omega values will be above the dendritic snow growth zone, drier air in the lower levels early in the event, and the speed at which the feature will be moving.
Could see a few breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon in northeast Arkansas, but otherwise looks to stay mostly cloudy with temperatures nearly steady in the low to mid 40s. A strong trailing cold front stretches southwest from the low pressure center across west Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. This will help to push a reinforcing arctic cold front across the area on Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build in Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day with clearing skies and cold temperatures.
IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through much of the period as a cold front moves across the area today with low overcast and patchy fog. A cold front will move across the area today, entering southeast Mississippi this morning and exiting the area late this afternoon or early this evening. The highest rain chances will be across northern areas with chance pops to the south.
The ridge spreads east Sunday with very light winds, continued dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Temps and dewpoints remaining slightly warmer than expected. Snow ratios will probably be on the higher side of climo given strong omega/supersaturation in the DGZ but DGZ is also very shallow and expect plenty of plates and columns to be produced as well.
357 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 A chilly day under the low clouds for most of the cwa. The clouds will linger and continue to slowly move Eastward overnight with more in and out with another cold front on approach for Sunday.
A cold front associated with a disturbance translating from the northern Rockies into the Central Plains will plunge through the South Plains early Sunday morning. Some form of cyclonically curved northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will then persist across the central and eastern states through the remainder of the forecast, with ridging out west.
The forcing will be enhanced some by orographic lift into the west/northwest facing slopes producing light snowfall across the higher elevations, generally at or above 3kft. Snowfall of 1 to possibly 2 inches across the highest elevations.
The suite of latest models has converged on a similar solution regarding the timing and track of an upper trough that will impact the forecast area later tonight and Sunday.
Little change for today outside of observed trends trough 15 UTC this morning.
VFR conditions prevail in wake of last nights cold front. The lower Stratocu deck at 5K feet is steadily moving SE and will be clearing the region before sunset. /issued 449 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The cold front has cleared through the region over the last few hours with the isold to sct shower activity decreasing as more stable air moves in from the northwest. CAA will prevail today and tonight as surface ridging spreads over the region.
/issued 1023 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ The cold front has moved east of the area, with much colder air spreading into the area. Cold front is very well defined with narrow line of convection that is moving through Acadiana this morning. Much colder tonight but temperatures likely to stay well above freezing.
A dry reinforcing cold front will push thru the area during the day Sunday and winds will pick back up in its wake. A reinforcing cold front is still on schedule to move through the area during the day tomorrow (by noon up north and before 6 PM off the coast).
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing slowly southward across southwest and south central Nebraska. High pressure will move in with fairly weak winds after an initial surge of northerly winds earlier in the day. Highs Sunday will be cooler overall under the high. To the northeast, expecting cooler highs with 30s by Hays.
mostly in the lower to mid 50s in the SF Bay Area, and from the mid 50s to mid 60s from Santa Cruz County southward. Therefore, expect only isolated pockets of sub-freezing temperatures late tonight and early Sunday, mainly in the interior valleys of southern Monterey County. Widespread freezing temperatures are not expected and so Freeze Warnings will not be issued for tonight. the model consensus is for the system to split and shear apart as it encounters the ridge along the West Coast. Temperatures are forecast to trend slightly warmer through Christmas.
313 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 The ridge of high pressure over the southeastern half of SD early this afternoon will slowly exit the weather picture as a trough of low pressure currently just north of the U.
with a stronger NW flow of cooler air into northern Michigan. large expanse of high pressure stretches through the plains into south-central Canada. Short wave trough axis and wrap-around moisture/cloud cover/ spotty showers will slowly eventually bringing a N-S clearing trend this afternoon and heading into tonight.
/Today through Tonight/ Large area of high pressure in place through Iowa and into the Northern Plains this morning. High pressure will dominate the weather for much of today.
24h max temp change indicates temps trending 3-7 degrees warmer over most of the area, even in the Delta despite a moderately strong Delta Breeze. Sat's trof does not look too strong but may lift the marine layer for some slight cooling in the Delta influenced areas, but little if any cooling elsewhere. JHM Weak upper troughing lifting to the NE will dissipate over Southern Oregon tonight as longer wavelength trough offshore approaches the coast. Afternoon temps running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer except in the north where minor synoptic cooling occurring. Next broad upper trough moves into Interior NorCal over the next 24 hours. Deeper trough follows Sunday with greater height falls.
Very weak and subtle troughing aloft over the region, will try to push a weak front south into the forecast area during the course of today.
Most of the activity was noted over the greater Limon area, with the low clouds extending into eastern El paso and Crowley county. Max temps will be noticeably warmer today with readings getting into the mid 80s across the lower elevations of the plains with 70s and lower 80s elsewhere on the plains. A weak trough is located over the far se plains and is not expected to move much during the day. Numerous HRRR runs show storms developing over the higher terrain after 2 PM and then moving east over the lower elevations of El Paso county through the late afternoon.
Ketcham Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of the week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps by the end of the work week with highs climbing back into the low 90s. High pressure should keep most of the convection out of the area Saturday, with mid-level clouds about the only thing to be remotely concerned about.
303 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Clear skies and high pressure have allowed temperatures to bottom out in the 50s across the area this morning. This high pressure is the main weather producer for the short term period. This morning a 20 knot H85 jet will bring sustained winds near 10 kts with gusts in the teens, this with the high pressure will lead to beautiful sensible weather day.
Low level moisture remains elevated with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s ahead of a slow moving cold front. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a broad trough across the Upper Midwest into the Northeastern U. The cold front is forecast to move through the forecast area this afternoon, however, the drier air will be a bit further behind the boundary and there will be some lingering showers and storms into the evening hours before coming to an end late tonight.
Minor H5 ridging aloft will keep precipitation threat minimal most of the day.
256 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017 Sufficient monsoon moisture in place this weekend will lead to mostly afternoon and evening chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly focused across the high terrain of central and eastern Arizona. Isolated storms will be possible across the lower deserts of south-central and southwest Arizona.
402 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front will move through the area this evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through the end of the week. An associated cold front currently over Ohio approaches through the today warranting categorical PoPs again across much of the area. Dewpoints remain in the low 70s with max temps in the mid 80s. Cold front crosses the area tonight with PoPs ending by 2am. Cold front persists south of the area through the middle of the week.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered overhead this weekend. Subsidence and capping underneath the Ridge inhibits convective development.
At 500 mb, the CWA remains between a ridge to the east and another to the west with weak flow across the area. Have shown the highest PoPs (around 50%) across the Florida Panhandle and southern portions of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia (mainly around 40% PoPs elsewhere). High temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the lower 90s.