Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure in southern Oregon is ushering in a large area of moisture into the Northern Rockies. This low pressure system will meander eastward overnight centering itself over the Northern Great Basin.
930 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Lingering showers have just about moved east of NE AL this late Mon evening, with the weak cold front not far behind the exiting precip. Mid/high clouds are spreading into the area from the NW in the wake of the frontal passage, as temps fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s.
Per upper level low approach/movement and provided additional moisture/lift into mid state region thru 19/24Z, will mention VCSH CSV thru 19/24Z. Confidence not high enough to mention prevailing shwrs in FM group CKV/BNA/MQY with anticipated moisture/lift associated with upper level low movement into mid state region, but certainly can not rule out in vcnty.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central MT, with warm front stretching southeast into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the high plains, with low pressure just off the northern CA coast. Nearly stalled warm front will creep into far western SD on Tuesday, bringing warmer air into the forecast area. Highs should reach into the 80s across much of the plains, with some upper 70s over the higher Black Hills and toward central SD. As upper low moves onshore and tracks slowly east- northeast into the Great Basin by late Tuesday, stronger energy aloft will shift further east into our region and will likely be strong enough to break the cap late in the day, especially over the higher terrain in WY.
Tilly The main focus thru this period will be the stacked upper low currently impacting the region. Model solns generally suggest this low will lift to the NE out of the Ohio Valley.
601 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper level omega blocking pattern will keep the weather fairly status quo through Tuesday with cool and cloudy conditions. An upper low over IL will move south into TN by Tuesday.
928 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Updated forecast for precipitation trends with one area of more concentrated showers currently moving across the south central Illinois, and a second area that is moving southwestward toward west central Illinois around the upper low. Tilly The main focus thru this period will be the stacked upper low currently impacting the region. Model solns generally suggest this low will lift to the NE out of the Ohio Valley.
322 PM MDT Mon May 18 2020 With the amplified upper-level low pressure trough digging and deepening all along the US west coast, persistent SW flow aloft is being directed over Montana.
1014 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country for mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler tonight with light winds and clear skies allowing us to radiate out nicely. This will allow for the colder locations in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks to drop near freezing overnight. Expect temps will range from the upper 20s dacks/nek to l/m 40s warmer CPV.
A cold front is currently making its way across the mid state, so look for clouds to lift from west to east as the focus for afternoon and evening showers & storms shifts to the Cumberland Plateau. Look for low clouds and showers to move back in later tonight and tomorrow as an upper low, which is now situated over northern Illinois, dives southward into Middle Tennessee and brings additional moisture and lift.
Upper ridging continues to build over the northern plains today. Southeast winds ahead of a lee side trough are expected to develop again on Tuesday after gusts diminish tonight. With the ridge and good mixing, temps have climbed into the 60s and 70s today, though hampered in some places by cirrus. Went with a cooler solution for now, but if the stratus clears by noon, daytime heating will be sufficient that warmer highs in the 70s will be probable.
723 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country for mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Expect temps will range from the upper 20s dacks/nek to l/m 40s warmer CPV.
850 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper level low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday, bringing occasional showers and the possibility of heavy rain to the region. A chance for showers will then linger through much of the week as the upper level low slowly drifts across the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will continue to advect around this low ahead of a quasi-stationary front over western Ohio. Widespread showers will continue to rotate around the low overnight. This will help keep us cool through the day with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 60s.
659 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An area of low pressure in central Illinois Monday afternoon will slowly drift toward the southeast tonight, reaching southern Indiana by Tuesday afternoon.
A surface cold front continues to progress across the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon. The cold front will continue to progress east and through the region by late this evening, as winds shift to the NW and dry air begins to move in. This will bring in end to precipitation chances and should help to scatter out some of the lower clouds for at least part of the night.
847 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An area of low pressure in central Illinois Monday afternoon will slowly drift toward the southeast tonight, reaching southern Indiana by Tuesday afternoon.
932 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper level low pressure system remains over Southern Illinois this evening. Clouds associated with the upper low are skirting locations near the MO/AR and KY/TN borders at this time. Expect clouds to expand southward during the overnight hours as the upper low slowly moves south. Expect a cloudy day on Tuesday as the upper low moves into Northwest Tennessee.
Variable sky conditions should prevail through remainder of evening into early morning hours before additional cloudiness moves in from the northwest per approaching upper level low, which might bring a chance of isolated showers to mid state region around sunrise and shortly thereafter. Per upper level low approach/movement and provided additional moisture/lift into mid state region thru 19/24Z, will mention VCSH CSV thru 19/24Z. Confidence not high enough to mention prevailing shwrs in FM group CKV/BNA/MQY with anticipated moisture/lift associated with upper level low movement into mid state region, but certainly can not rule out in vcnty.
/Issued 254 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ Closed low pressure system. The backside of this low was spreading scattered to broken cumulus clouds across far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. Closed low is progged to continue to move south southeast to near the Ohio River valley Tuesday morning and into the Southeast U.
A strong, late season low pressure system will bring windy conditions and areas of critical fire weather to northern Arizona today and Tuesday.
Additional clusters of showers and storms over the waters to the west and southwest of the Lower Keys are moving east and should impact parts of the Keys and nearshore waters during the next few hours. Skies are cloudy along the Keys, with temperatures having been driven down into the lower to mid 70s due to rainfall and outflows. Water vapor imagery shows a deep and well-defined trough advancing across the eastern Gulf, and this feature has been driving the strong convection across our region. Overnight, showers and storms currently approaching the Lower Keys may continue to move up the island chain during the next few hours.
/Tonight/ Quiet conditions will continue tonight, although drier sfc air over Ern OK/Cntrl AR remains progged to backdoor SW into portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme Nrn LA ahead of weak sfc ridging over the Plains/MS Valley. The timing and extent of any cu development will help offset radiational cooling tonight, with min temps expected to be several degrees warmer than what was observed this morning.
Some snow will be possible in the higher terrain, especially above 6000 feet today and 5500 feet on Tuesday. This pattern is brought by an area of low pressure circling off the Humboldt County Coast, and should push ashore later this afternoon or evening. This low pressure system will continue our showers for tonight with the showers beginning to end from southeast to northwest. Overall, showers will be less on Tuesday--especially west of the Cascades, and conditions will continue to dry out Tuesday evening where precipitation will be tied to the higher terrain.
523 PM MDT Mon May 18 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central MT, with warm front stretching southeast into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the high plains, with low pressure just off the northern CA coast. Nearly stalled warm front will creep into far western SD on Tuesday, bringing warmer air into the forecast area. Highs should reach into the 80s across much of the plains, with some upper 70s over the higher Black Hills and toward central SD. As upper low moves onshore and tracks slowly east- northeast into the Great Basin by late Tuesday, stronger energy aloft will shift further east into our region and will likely be strong enough to break the cap late in the day, especially over the higher terrain in WY.
923 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 With high level clouds coming over the region tonight along with steady southeast breezes, temperatures will be mild overnight only falling into the mid 40s to the lower 50s by morning. Upper ridging continues to build over the northern plains today. Southeast winds ahead of a lee side trough are expected to develop again on Tuesday after gusts diminish tonight. With the ridge and good mixing, temps have climbed into the 60s and 70s today, though hampered in some places by cirrus. Went with a cooler solution for now, but if the stratus clears by noon, daytime heating will be sufficient that warmer highs in the 70s will be probable.
High pressure will gradually build south of the waters during the week, keeping a southwest to west flow across the waters.
The upper level low that has been bringing active weather to NorCal is begining to push off the Pacific east into CA. The CAPE profiles are tall and skinny with the freezing level at about 6000 feet, this is very supportive of small accumulating hail and that is the main risk we have been seeing with thunderstorms along with the heavy rain. The trough axis will be pushing east through CA on Tuesday and this is going to keep showers in the forecast with the best chances after 18z/11 AM in the foothills and mountains.
1022 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper level low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday, bringing occasional showers and the possibility of heavy rain to the region. A chance for showers will then linger through much of the week as the upper level low slowly drifts across the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will continue to advect around this low ahead of a quasi-stationary front over western Ohio. Widespread showers will continue to rotate around the low overnight. This will help keep us cool through the day with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 60s.
An unseasonably deep upper trough is moving toward the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians. Due to the 850mb low dropping into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys along with ridging into the northeast/mid-atlantic states, a strong southeast 850mb jet of 40-50kts develops.
459 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. Much warmer weather is ahead this holiday weekend with chances for storms and highs in the lower to mid 80s. An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. An upper level ridge will build north of the Ohio River and bring much warmer weather through the holiday weekend.
Weak cold front may bring some clouds around FL040, however, with isold convection possible by this aftn through the end of the pd. /Tonight/ Quiet conditions will continue tonight, although drier sfc air over Ern OK/Cntrl AR remains progged to backdoor SW into portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme Nrn LA ahead of weak sfc ridging over the Plains/MS Valley. The timing and extent of any cu development will help offset radiational cooling tonight, with min temps expected to be several degrees warmer than what was observed this morning.
High pressure over Quebec will begin to push a dry airmass westward, bringing clearing from east to west tonight and tomorrow.
Forecast Confidence is Medium to The pesky cut-off low will keep clouds and drizzle over the area today, but it does look like we'll start to dry out by this evening as the upper level low moves from central Illinois to Tennessee. With the low pressure system shifting to the southeast, an axis of high pressure will set up to our north on Wednesday and allow some drier air to move in resulting in some sunshine. This will also keep our easterly winds in place and therefore temperatures will be cooler by the lake.
252 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure will build southeastward into the area today. This high pressure system will hold firm over the area through the week leading to a quiet stretch of weather with more sunshine. High pressure will nose into the region breaking up some the more persistent cloud cover around early this morning. The high pressure system continues to nose in through Wednesday with remaining clouds slowly clearing out. Dry weather will return by Wednesday as the upper level low spins over the Tennessee valley and high pressure over eastern Canada builds into the northeastern US.
307 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A closed upper low centered over southern Illinois will drift slowly southeast to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of this week. A ridge of high pressure between these two storm systems will bring fair and generally dry weather across the region through at least Wednesday night.
Another cloudy day for central Indiana as an upper level low continues to slowly meander around the Ohio Valley. This will change by mid morning as the low pressure system that has impacted Indiana for the last few days slowly sinks south.
301 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Current water vapor explains the setup very well for west Texas as the state is nestled under a prominent ridge axis centered through the central US. This is sandwiched between a cutoff upper-low over the Midwest and a broad trough entering into the Pac coast. The combo will lead to intense heating under a well placed thermal ridge in our forecast area today. Our ridge will breakdown slowly through the rest of the week as the western trough moves eastward into the Inter-Mountain west, lowering heights and keeping the temps cooler than the past few days.
The eastern portion of the CWA is still seeing lighter winds due to the proximity of the ridge axis to the east of the CWA. Through the midweek timeframe, the entire region is still looking at above normal temperatures as an upper ridge will shift east over the area. The first will be late Tuesday afternoon over central/eastern Colorado as a trough sets up. Models have been pushing the enhanced trough further south along the Front Range and is now affecting northern Yuma county. The trough does stretch the full length of the western CWA. For the extended the models are showing an upper-level pattern of ridging over the High Plains along with an cutoff low over the Southeastern states and troughing over the Rockies.
327 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Scattered showers today - Mostly dry the rest of the week - Scattered showers today Upper low begins to move south today as rex block develops.
123 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country for mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Expect temps will range from the upper 20s dacks/nek to l/m 40s warmer CPV.
1119 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 A closed upper low centered over southern Illinois will drift slowly southeast to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of this week. A ridge of high pressure between these two storm systems will bring fair and generally dry weather across the region through at least Wednesday night.
Our weather for the next 4 days will be dominated by a large upper level low currently over southern Illinois.
255 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Low pressure will linger just east of Illinois today, and even on Wednesday. Low pressure churning over W-SW Indiana early this morning will move very slowly to the S-SE through tonight. Various spokes of energy rotating around the low will be foci for scattered showers today and into this evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 402 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A wet pattern will continue through mid week, as additional waves of showers and thunderstorms rotate through the region ahead of a strong low pressure system situated near the base of the southern Appalachians. Water vapor imagery shows a closed 500 mb low center moving southeast over the lower Ohio Valley early this morning.
Water vapor imagery was showing flow aloft consisting of a deep trough/closed circulation situated off the the west coast with a well amplified ridge over the central CONUS. Another deep upper trough downstream was covering the eastern half of the CONUS. Tonight through Wednesday night Increasing heights the next couple days will aid with warmer temperatures along with dry conditions prevailing through mid week. Near normal highs are expected with temperatures Tuesday topping out in the lower/mid 70s.
The eastern portion of the CWA is still seeing lighter winds due to the proximity of the ridge axis to the east of the CWA. Through the midweek timeframe, the entire region is still looking at above normal temperatures as an upper ridge will shift east over the area. The first will be late Tuesday afternoon over central/eastern Colorado as a trough sets up. Models have been pushing the enhanced trough further south along the Front Range and is now affecting northern Yuma county. The trough does stretch the full length of the western CWA. Pattern will definitly be different during the period as opposed to current setup, as H5 trough gradually becomes centered over the region and gradually transitions to a cut of low over southern US by the end of the period.
353 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country through mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Pleasant weather on tap for the North Country as high pressure noses down from Canada. Clouds will increase just a bit this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, as we see daytime mixing and a bit of lingering moisture, but overall expect mostly clear skies to prevail a good part of the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the mid 60s to around 70, turning a few degrees warmer for Wednesday under plentiful sunshine. Patchy frost will be possible tonight for portions of the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks as sheltered valleys could drop into the lower to mid 30s.
A prevailing dry pattern will continue through much of the period as an amplified ridge aloft edges slowly east across the Central Plains, gradually giving way to an southwesterly flow across the high plains of extreme western Kansas. However, a rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out later this evening near the Colorado border as an increasingly negatively-tilted upper level trough approaches from the west, setting up an intensifying south-southwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado. Should see afternoon highs up into the lower/mid 80s(F) across much of southwest Kansas after expected developing morning cloud cover begins to lift/scatter out toward mid-day.
437 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Quebec will bring about a drying trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
May continue to see small scale effects (such as the downslope off the Buffalo Ridge) impact sky cover. Have slightly cooler highs in northwest Iowa into portions of southwest Minnesota because of the impact of cloud cover. With rex block across the eastern US, models have slowed up increasing pressure gradient as trough approaches from the west.
403 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Rounds of showers, with areas to the south and west of Pittsburgh seeing the higher chances, will continue around a low pressure system to our southwest. Despite the lack of overall CAPE, low-level lapse rates will be sufficient to mix down strong wind gusts of around 30 MPH west of the ridges, and 35 to 45 MPH in the higher elevations. In other ridge areas, potential is more marginal, but there are some elements in model soundings (such as orthogonal flow, reverse shear, and overall stability) that suggest possible mountain wave activity. Although values will be cooler than yesterday given the easterly flow, did still lean towards the warmer side of guidance as some breaks in the clouds are expected.
/issued 932 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ An upper level low pressure system remains over Southern Illinois this evening. Clouds associated with the upper low are skirting locations near the MO/AR and KY/TN borders at this time. Expect clouds to expand southward during the overnight hours as the upper low slowly moves south. Expect a cloudy day on Tuesday as the upper low moves into Northwest Tennessee.
322 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Second verse same as the first! GOES water vapor is showing the stacked closed low shifting south over the past 6 hours, good news. Unfortunately, being on the north side of the low brings the moisture plume right into the forecast area.
351 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 A cold front with not much in the way of cooling will stall over the area this evening.
Lower SC deck forecast to move into northwest Arkansas late tonight, spreading into northeast Oklahoma this morning on backside of upper low. /Issued 254 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ Closed low pressure system. The backside of this low was spreading scattered to broken cumulus clouds across far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. Closed low is progged to continue to move south southeast to near the Ohio River valley Tuesday morning and into the Southeast U. a long wave trof. a ridge of high pressure along with upper level north to northwesterly flow are forecast to hold over the Plains with near seasonal average high temperatures and cool overnight temperatures for the CWA.
330 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country through mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Pleasant weather on tap for the North Country as high pressure noses down from Canada. Clouds will increase just a bit this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, as we see daytime mixing and a bit of lingering moisture, but overall expect mostly clear skies to prevail a good part of the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the mid 60s to around 70, turning a few degrees warmer for Wednesday under plentiful sunshine. Patchy frost will be possible tonight for portions of the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks as sheltered valleys could drop into the lower to mid 30s.
359 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will allow for continued dry and seasonable weather through the work week. Skies will be sunny to start the day with some cirrus debris increasing through the afternoon from the upper low over the Ohio Valley. Skies will once again clear from the north overnight as the upper low retrogrades southward. A dry and pleasant stretch of weather continues through the short term period as the area remains under the influence of upper level ridging.