Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures this weekend will be much cooler with highs only topping out in the mid 60s and 70s by Sunday. They address the thunderstorm potential associated with disturbances along the outer eastern edge of the upper low off the Oregon Coast initiating convection this afternoon and evening followed by more convection associated with the ejecting inland of the offshore low itself.
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Upper ridging continues over the region with temperatures once again heating up into the triple digits across most of the area.
Next up in the high-res models is another surge this afternoon from the Owyhee Mountains northeastward into the Boise Mountains, although there is not much evidence of it so far.
Although the stout upper- level ridging will lose much of its grip across the Southern Plains by early in the work week, the Upper Great Lakes will remain on its periphery, allowing for a bit of an unsettled pattern to emerge overhead.
257 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend to start off the week.
312 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure was centered over Lake Michigan on Saturday.
1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Thunderstorms should stay along the periphery of an upper level high pressure this afternoon and tonight, generally west and north of the TAF sits. /issued 418 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ The upper level high continues to very slowly drift eastward and it appears that the center is just a bit slower in its eastward trek than suggested in last night's model soundings. Some weak convergence in wind fields exists across that area though the lower levels are relatively stable thanks to low level inversions.
1135 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
Temps will be in the low to mid 90s on Sunday with dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s.
/issued 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ Upper ridging continues over the region with temperatures once again heating up into the triple digits across most of the area.
ranging from the low 60s north to low 70s south across most valley locations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 69 92 / 20 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 92 69 92 / 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 88 63 90 / 20 10 0 10.
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend to start off the week.
845 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure over Lake Michigan will keep dry weather over central Illinois through tonight.
The upper low responsible for the widespread rain today was moving over southeast Arizona at this time. The location of this upper low had shifted the focus for heavy rainfall and the flash flood threat to Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties. These solutions looked reasonable as storms over the higher terrain of Gila and eastern Pinal drop south as the upper low lifts farther northeast tonight. The latest runs are highlighting an uptick in stratiform type convection across the higher terrain later this afternoon and evening, which will only further enhance the potential for flooding across the region.
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The upper level ridge currently centered over the Southern Plains is forecast to slowly build into the area in response to an upper level trough currently moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest.
We've seen the low clouds move toward DRT over the last couple of nights and expect they will have at least occasional ceilings Sunday morning for a few hours. Models show the upper ridge remaining centered over Texas through the weekend.
/issued 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ (Tonight through Sunday) Persistence forecast continues under upper ridging.
1022 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Currently - A fairly amplified deep layered trough extends southward along the Atlantic states into the northern portion of Florida. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge is aligned off to our east.
This setup will continue the low-level west to southwest flow across the region tonight into the next few days, with showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf in the early morning hours generally moving inland through the day.
All TAF sites are still under an area of high pressure with winds generally out of the south to southwest at 5-10 kts under mostly clear skies. Across the northwest half of the forecast area, slightly stronger and cooler mid level flow expected to contribute to steeper mid level lapse rates.
Several bands of high cirrus continue to stream through the western Great Lakes along the periphery of the upper level ridge. There is a narrow theta-e ridge and instability poking up through the Midwest kicking off an area of showers and some thunder in parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. Upper ridge over the northern Midwest will move east with the axis crossing Michigan early Sunday. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes.
The semi-permanent upper high over Texas will attempt to build eastward over our region tonight into Sunday.
640 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure was centered over Lake Michigan on Saturday.
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 /00Z TAFS/ No significant aviation concerns expected through Sunday with high pressure in control of North Texas weather. /Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ An approximate 596dam mid-level high pressure will remain anchored squarely over our area through the remainder of the weekend, keeping our temperatures hot and our sky relatively clear.
A closed upper low moving through northern California has brought unseasonably cool temperatures across the area as well as showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains/foothills. The potential for precipitation will diminsh as the low opens into a wave and begins to lift northeast across NorCal later this evening. Temperatures have been be quite cool in comparison to climatology, with Valley highs only reaching into the low and mid- 80s.
1038 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend to start off the week.
A strong upper low is moving northeast from northern CA into southeast Oregon this evening, and will move into northeast Oregon overnight. Next up in the high-res models is another surge this afternoon from the Owyhee Mountains northeastward into the Boise Mountains, although there is not much evidence of it so far.
The latest runs are highlighting an uptick in stratiform type convection across the higher terrain later this afternoon and evening, which will only further enhance the potential for flooding across the region.
The forecast area remains on the western end of an upper level high that is centered over North Texas. Early morning convection is not expected the next two nights as the ridge has lost some of its mid level moisture and stabilized in the mid levels as well. An upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandle on Monday pulling a weak front southward into the forecast area, although thunderstorm chances should remain to the north of the forecast area in closer proximity to the compact short wave. Upper level high pressure to rebuild behind the short wave trough with some question as to thunderstorm potential underneath it.
Through the day, the high pressure over the east will retreat but winds will remain out of the east, so poor mixing and below average temperatures again today (including some areas that will fail to break out). Ridging across the area will keep us dry, but we will see southwest flow aloft across Wyoming and western South Dakota with both an approaching mid-latitude wave and another southwest monsoon wave coming up from the 4 corners region.
Ongoing pattern of late day thunderstorm development off the Western High Plains will continue today as an upper level high transitions eastward across the Ark-La-Tex Region, giving way to a southwesterly flow aloft across the area. Steepening low/mid level lapse rates within an easterly upslope flow ahead of an advancing attendant frontal boundary and a moisture plume pushing surface dewpoints well up into the lower/mid 70s(F) will set the stage for thunderstorms once again this evening, particularly further north toward the vicinity of the I-70 corridor.
High temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. The upper ridge then builds across the region on Sunday and Monday, ahead of the next impulse.
Cooler temperatures today will give way to warmer temperatures Sunday.
High pressure will remain in control of North Texas weather with southerly winds around 10 kt and mostly clear skies. /Issued 301 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ An approximate 596dam mid-level high pressure will remain anchored squarely over our area through the remainder of the weekend, keeping our temperatures hot and our sky relatively clear.
A low pressure system was spinning moisture into our area and this combined with daytime heating continued to produce thunderstorms. Minor changes were also done to sky and weather along with low temperatures that are forecast in the low 60s and upper 50s with 40s in the mountains.
Upper ridging across the South-Central CONUS will continue to slowly expand eastward with strong subsidence aloft. With the increased ridging, drier boundary layer air, and max temperatures already in the low to mid 90s, expect temperatures to be 0 to 3 degrees warmer on Sunday across the forecast area, about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Dry conditions forecast tonight with high pressure across the region.
Temperatures will be seasonable, in the low to mid 80s Sunday and mid 80s to around 90 Monday. While no major systems are expected at this time, the best chances for rainfall will likely be in the evening and overnight hours, given the boost from the low level jet.
/issued 336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ A 596 dam mid-level ridge is progged to be centered near the Arklatex the through Monday. A low-level thermal ridge (850 mb temperatures ~24 to 30 C) on the western side of the ridge will result in very hot surface temperatures (~100-105+ F). Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the ridge across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.
Cooler again Sunday with much less wind. Sunday night into Monday morning will be cool to cold in northern Nevada, warmer in the central and east parts. much cooler today, cooler tonight in central and eastern Nevada, and cold tonight in northern Nevada with frost possible in northern Elko County.
Low pressure centered across the Pac NW slowly exits to the east today leaving behind cool temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures early this morning are running about 5 to 8 degrees colder than yesterday with some sheltered Sierra locations around freezing. If you prefer the below average temperatures, then enjoy it today because starting Monday it will begin to heat up and by midweek the 90s return to the lower valleys. Relatively flat ridging will be bringing the warming trend this week, along with generally light winds.
Temperatures are expected to once again reach into the low to mid 90s. The only thing that could spoil the high heat indices today could be increased cloud cover and storms triggering early in the day. Models continue to show a break from some of the higher heat by mid to late week. Typical summertime flat high pressure regime with relatively light winds and low seas the next 5 days.
Models rmn in good agreement this mrng building an upper ridge into the region the next few days.
The talk of the short-term forecast will continue to be dominated by the heat as a strong sub-tropical ridge continues to have a hold on the Southern Plains.
1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The upper level ridge currently centered over the Southern Plains is forecast to slowly build into the area in response to an upper level trough currently moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest.
JHM A closed upper low moving through northern California has brought unseasonably cool temperatures across the area as well as showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains/foothills. The potential for precipitation will diminish as the low opens into a wave and begins to lift northeast across NorCal later this evening. Temperatures have been be quite cool in comparison to climatology, with Valley highs only reaching into the low and mid- 80s.
Ridging will be the predominant feature over the region through the remainder of the weekend, with the approach of a low pressure system Monday bringing a couple of days of thunderstorm chances to the area, particularly Monday afternoon and Monday evening. High pressure in the wake of this system will again bring quiet weather to the area mid to late week. High pressure will be the main feature in place across the area tonight, and expect another night of mostly clear skies and lows dipping down into the lower 60s across most of the area. Forecast soundings are not supportive of precipitation at all Sunday into Sunday night, and really take most of Monday to become supportive, which isn't surprising given the ridging to the south suppressing moisture return.
135 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 A low pressure system will work through the Idaho panhandle today. Expect cooler but breezier conditions today, with winds approaching lake wind criteria for the American Falls Reservoir. Dry weather settles in for the first half of the week with another low pressure system expected to move into the Pacific Northwest later in the week. Temps will start off cool, turning warmer by midweek as some of the guidance is showing mid 90s possible in a few areas. A 500mb trough axis will push through the region today, and the primary forecast challenge will be the winds. An upper trough will work its way through the region today. Most of the moisture has shifted to the east, but the trough may trigger some isolated thunderstorms over the Central Mountains this afternoon.
326 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Today will be mostly sunny and comfortable once again as high pressure departs.
With high cloud cover mitigating direct sunlight for much of the day, high temperatures should remain near normals, which are in the low to mid 80s. Locations that do see thunderstorms are likely to receive over an inch of rain, given the high PW air being ingested by the storms.
High pressure over eastern OH/western PA will move off to the east and bring warmer, gradually more humid air into the area today and tonight. A warm front from the middle MO Valley southward into AR will slow slowly move eastward across IA/MO/IL tonight and effect our weather on Monday and Monday night. High pressure will be the main feature in place across the area tonight, and expect another night of mostly clear skies and lows dipping down into the lower 60s across most of the area. Forecast soundings are not supportive of precipitation at all Sunday into Sunday night, and really take most of Monday to become supportive, which isn't surprising given the ridging to the south suppressing moisture return.
/Tonight/ The late afternoon isolated convection over NE LA diminished quickly this evening with the loss of heating, with some elevated cigs persisting over Ncntrl LA as they spill SW around the Ern periphery of the upper level ridge centered over Ncntrl TX. Even with the mostly clear sky this evening away from these elevated cigs, 02Z temps have not dropped much, ranging from the lower to mid 80s. 8-12kft AC cigs are expected to develop between 09-12Z across Scntrl AR/much of N LA just E of the upper ridge center over Ncntrl TX, and should linger through much of the morning before eroding.
1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure over Lake Michigan will keep dry weather over central Illinois through tonight. A more significant short wave is expected to move across the top of the upper ridge, from NE into IA on Monday. Scattered warm sector storms will still be possible due to high CAPE, but better chances of storms may be on Monday night, as the dragging cold front moves through.
Upper ridge centered along the northern Gulf Coast will remain in place through Monday, keeping the very hot and humid conditions in place. The highest values are most likely across the Florida Big Bend into far southern Georgia.
418 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts with a ridge across the plains. The ridge flattens out this forecast period as the trough on the west coast moves into it and the upper flow becomes more zonal. A weak cold front will move through the area today and will have some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and a narrow band of deeper moisture with it.
High pressure over eastern OH/western PA will move off to the east and bring warmer, gradually more humid air into the area today and tonight. A warm front from the middle MO Valley southward into AR will slow slowly move eastward across IA/MO/IL tonight and effect our weather on Monday and Monday night. High pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley will provide for another warm day, but as the high moves slowly east this evening into Monday, there will be a gradual increase in moisture and some mid-high clouds ahead of the next system over the central Plains that will moving towards the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday.
/issued 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ Upper ridging continues over the region with temperatures once again heating up into the triple digits across most of the area. The upper ridge will flatten a bit on Monday with surface winds becoming westerly.
Temperatures this weekend will be much cooler with highs only topping out in the mid 60s and 70s by Sunday. The upper level trough of lower pressure will be swinging through on Sunday.
304 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Updated at 206 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 High pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic with generally low RH in the column will lead to dry and pleasant summer weather today.
/Tonight/ The late afternoon isolated convection over NE LA diminished quickly this evening with the loss of heating, with some elevated cigs persisting over Ncntrl LA as they spill SW around the Ern periphery of the upper level ridge centered over Ncntrl TX. Even with the mostly clear sky this evening away from these elevated cigs, 02Z temps have not dropped much, ranging from the lower to mid 80s.
The 00z GFS/EURO/NAM depict a 500 mb trough across the northwest U. this morning, pushing eastward through Montana tonight as a closed upper low attempts to form. North Dakota will be just ahead of this trough, in an area featuring strong cyclonic vorticity advection and some degree of warm air advection. At the surface, a closed low will attempt to form as well. Highs will struggle to rise above the lower 70s. One thing that is certain is the cooler temperatures on Monday, with highs only in the lower 60s across northern North Dakota.
This allow a modest cold front to drop south into Kansas. The timing and movement of this front will not only determine placement of the modest chances for convection on Monday afternoon/evening, but also where the highest heat and humidity combo will be realized and heat advisory.
248 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The heat continues for at least a few more days as high pressure sits along the Red River.
148 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend to start off the week.
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts with a ridge across the plains. The ridge flattens out this forecast period as the trough on the west coast moves into it and the upper flow becomes more zonal. A weak cold front will move through the area today and will have some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and a narrow band of deeper moisture with it.
A dry cold front will move through the northern half of the forecast area Sunday.
/Today through Monday/ Very persistent guidance temps thru period reflect a very static pattern where 595 ridge at 500 mb remains solid over extreme ne TX and nw flow becomes shunted. Aside from very lgt rain from mid lvl ac decks, little in way of convection which remained well to north and east of cwa, and thus have low confidence placed on even isold pops eastern portions of cwa this aftn as ridge will likely expand slightly.
Temperatures will climb heading into midweek before renewed troughing over the region brings a return to near normal temperatures and increased afternoon gustiness.
The warming trend will continue through the middle part of the upcoming work week as high pressure builds in from the Desert Southwest. Conditions then appear likely to cool late in the week as another upper level trough impacts the Pacific Northwest. The mid/upper level trough that brought below normal temperatures across the interior the past few days will continue to shift eastward away from the region. High pressure over the southern portion of the country will then build back westward over the Desert Southwest during the first half of the upcoming work week.
still sticking with the general idea that the Acadiana terminals will have the best shot at convection today with the mid/upper-level ridge axis lingering to our west. A slight weakness in the upper ridge may allow for a modest increase in cloud cover and shower activity this afternoon, but mainly over the Atchafalaya Basin once again, and into Central LA too. Continued hot with afternoon max heat indexes of 105-109 and minimal rain chances in the lower Atchafalaya.
Strong high pressure aloft over the Lone Star State into the ArkLaTex region will promote a northwest flow aloft. Johns River Basin this late afternoon and early evening where the highest instability will reside. Weak low pressure trough across GA will slowly slide southward the next few days with the east coast sea breeze allowed to develop each aftn.
905 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Today will be mostly sunny and comfortable once again as high pressure departs.
525 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Today will be mostly sunny and comfortable once again as high pressure departs.
High pressure residing south of the waters will maintain westerly winds for the next couple of days.
Temperatures today look seasonable, and perhaps a bit on the cooler than normal side with highs mainly in the 80s for nearly all of the CWA. Confidence is not the highest with placement, but this can be adjusted if needed by the day shift. Ensembles indicate a general amplification of the upper ridge in the west and troughing developing in the eastern United States toward late work week, but the western ridge may be broken down as another trough moves in from the northwestern United States. Not the highest confidence with this forecast as ceilings are a bit of a conundrum.
The highest dewpoints across the area may be slightly lower today across north central Oklahoma, but most areas will also be a touch warmer today. Given the high heat index values that we were able to reach across north central Oklahoma yesterday, and a number of areas forecast to be at or above 110, we will issue an excessive heat warning for portions of north central and central Oklahoma for today. Another hot day is expected tomorrow, but then the cold front approaches late Monday.
High pressure over eastern OH/western PA will move off to the east and bring warmer, gradually more humid air into the area today and tonight. A warm front from the middle MO Valley southward into AR will slow slowly move eastward across IA/MO/IL tonight and effect our weather on Monday and Monday night. Surface analysis shows high pressure in place across eastern Ohio.
High temperatures will average in the lower 90s, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 70s to lower to mid 80s. See no reason to stray from high temperatures averaging in the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s outside of heavy downpours or localized radiational cooling.