Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong to Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall Expected This For this afternoon and evening, a cold front across northwest Oklahoma will continue to move southeastward. Limited insolation should result in cooler temperatures. Beyond Friday, the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand back to the west with anomalously high heights.
Storms will likely expand in coverage along the advancing cold front by mid afternoon and make a more concerted pushed into northeast Oklahoma from late afternoon through late evening. Fcst soundings suggest a rather brief window of svr potential with storms associated with the cold front as they advance into NE OK w/ locally damaging winds the primary concern, and 12z HREF members support a similar scenario.
325 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Fairly quiet day around the region this afternoon with radar showing only a few isolated showers in SE TX as well as in the Lower Atchafalaya Basin. At the surface, high pressure located in the Tennessee Valley and an associated mid level ridge have helped suppress more widespread convection, as well as usher in a much drier air mass as is clearly evident through the GOES-16 mid level water vapor loop.
302 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 At 3 PM, a low pressure area was located just east of Aberdeen SD. A cold front extended from this low southeast into south-central Minnesota and then south through central Iowa. A warm front extended from the Albert Lea MN southeast to Platteville WI. With 0-1 km shear of 30 knots, there will be the potential of isolated tornadoes along the warm front.
Axis of upper level trough and associated QG ascent are moving across nrn CO early this morning. Thus, shower activity should gradually end over the plains and mtns by around 12z, as upper trough exits the area. However, with downward descent behind the upper level trough, there will be good mixing later this morning and aftn. Thus expect gusty northwest winds over the higher terrain and across the plains. Finally, with drier air and light winds overnight, some of the high valley areas may drop into the teens for lows by Fri morning.
Cloud cover on Friday will be more widespread, keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
This activity was along/ahead of an east to west warm front across northern IA into northern IL. and was feeding off of strong push of anomalously high moisture content air ahead of deepening low pressure over Nebraska. CAMs have this activity lifting northward across the area this morning as that deepening/occluding low pressure moves north into MN by this afternoon. Could see a lull in the showers/storms for a brief time early this afternoon before the cold front from the low swings northeast into the area by late this afternoon into this evening. Deep low pressure will lift into Canada Friday with wrap around cumulus/stratocumulus in colder/brisk cyclonic flow expected across the area.
229 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High pressure will build across the area tonight with partial clearing.
The cold front in the Plains will work into northwest Arkansas after 06Z. Winds will be southerly at 10 knots or less with higher gusts across the higher elevations during the afternoon hours. Aloft, upper level troughing was located over the Rockies with a large expansive ridge over the mid-MS/TN Valley region. At the surface, low pressure was located over portions of NE and SD. On Friday, the upper trough will translate eastward across the northern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure will slide north and east dragging a cold front across the Southern Plains. As this frontal boundary approaches the state, its forward momentum will decrease due to high pressure acting as a blocking mechanism.
Water vapor loop has the upper low spinning over the Dakotas, with mid level dry air moving through our southern and eastern counties. Tonight, the low will move into MN. Have precip chances picking back up again later tonight before shifting off to the east tomorrow as the low pulls away from the region. Temps will remain cool behind the low pressure system, with the western counties getting into the 60s with 50s in MN where rain lingers longer.
248 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The cold front is currently bisecting the FA and, though it continues to push southward, has slowed in forward speed.
A lee-side trough over Alberta already has started to form and will push east Friday. The upper flow will become much more progressive with small amplitude troughs and ridges moving into the area form the Pacific over the weekend.
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Main forecast concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms late afternoon and into the evening across mainly parts of northeast Oklahoma, in association with an approaching cold front. The aforementioned cold front currently stretches across parts of northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas. The highest instability values in the area are positioned along and to the northwest of Interstate 44, and it is expected that this area will have the main potential for any isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through the evening.
200 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High pressure will produce quiet weather through the weekend. A low pressure system will arrive by midweek.
Upper level trough continues to move through the central plains meanwhile a cold front continues to move through southwest Kansas with the position as of noon between Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Tonight winds should calm with high pressure moving in and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s. Friday as the high pressure moves eastward the winds will switch back to the south and highs will reach into the mid 80s.
With little to no rain expected across the region today along with high pressure building in, temperatures should top out a degree or two warmer than yesterday.
An upper ridge will build in from the west today and provide the area with mostly clear skies, warmer temperatures, and light winds.
1242 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to drift to the northeast early this morning as a cold front slowly tracks eastward across the area. Temps will be cooler than we have seen the past few days with highs mainly in the 70s. As the upper trough and associated closed low move east of the Central Plains, zonal flow sets up aloft with predominately southerly flow at the surface allowing for highs to reach back into the 80s and 90s for the next several days.
145 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue to provide above normal temperatures and limited convection today. An upper ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley combined with a fairly dry atmosphere will act to suppress diurnal convection for most areas. Upper ridge will provide above normal max temps with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 90s most areas. Precipitation chances increase some on Friday as high pressure weakens and moisture increases with a backdoor front moving closer to the area.
A tightening pressure gradient between this low and a high pressure system will help produce gusty northwest winds tonight through Friday afternoon as well. Dry weather continues into Friday evening as high pressure holds influence. Much warmer and drier conditions are still on their way according to the latest ops models and ensembles.
This afternoon, an intense cyclone is situated over the eastern Dakotas. From the cyclone, a cold front is situated from along the SD/MN border, to along the Nebraska/IA border, then curves across central KS to the southern TX Panhandle.
320 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An upper level high has been driving the anticyclonic motion of air around the feature as an upper level low continutes to slowly propagate off to the West in the Central Gulf of Mexico, driving the weather across the peninsula.
Stormy activity this morning got going in the unstable air mass ahead of the cold front as strong jet induced warm air advection across the region; providing the needed lift for some scattered storms. One of the results of a slightly cooler western Missouri is that good instability (to fuel thunderstorms) is a bit removed and ahead of the better organizing shear; which current observations and mesoanalysis show well behind the front.
1127 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A cold front moved through southeast CO overnight. Today an upper trof will be exiting the area to the east, leaving dry westerly flow aloft over southern CO. Temps today across southeast CO will be cooler with highs around or slightly below average, in the 70s over much of El Paso County, and in the upper 70s and lower 80s over the rest of the plains. Teller County should see highs mostly in the 60s, with a few locations in the lower 70s. Some MOS guidance temps for Alamosa tonight have a low of 33 degrees, which is 6 degrees below average and near freezing.
1006 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The main area of light to moderate showers resides across central South Dakota, in association with the upper low across southeastern Montana and northwestern South Dakota and the left exit region of a 80 knot jet streak. CAM solutions have backed off on areal coverage of showers today across much of the CWA, with perhaps a focus back to the west over western/central SD associated with the upper low circulation.
High pressure is centered over the southern Appalachians and will help keep the region dry tonight. On Friday, a weak cold front with move across most of Arkansas. Temperatures will remain on the hot side on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
342 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a lower- to mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered over the Tennessee River Valley, while a large-scale wave in the tradewind easterlies was analyzed from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through the central Bahamas.
Warmer conditions then for tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s. We will see some increase in clouds Friday afternoon as a short wave trough tracks across the Montana/Saskatchewan border. The associated cold front may produce isolated to scattered showers as it gets dragged through southern Montana in the evening.
A crossing cold front will filter in drier air amid high pressure for the weekend. A subtle cold front is progged to sag south across the forecast area through the day, eventually stalling along the PA/WV border in response to lack of upper jet support and the amplification of a SE CONUS ridge. Though, instability will be limited given warm advection in mid-levels in response upstream ridging and lack of sufficient shear to allow for organized storms. The aforementioned boundary is progged to lift northward Friday as a warm front in response to a deepening, 500mb closed low across the Central Plains. High resolution models suggest the development of a strong inversion as ridging amplifies ahead of the low. This warm layer should prohibit deep-convection potential through the majority of the day, with sufficient cloud cover expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
237 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The low pressure system that was associated with yesterday's cold front continues to spin over central South Dakota as seen on satellite imagery bringing cloud cover to northern portions of the CWA, especially across Dawes County, NE. A few light rain showers are possible this afternoon across these areas before the low pushes farther toward the east. Highest peaks, especially in the Snowys, could see temperatures below freezing.
A few storms have begun to fire this afternoon under the strong ridge that remains set up over the Eastern half of the United States. Best chances for storms remain along the higher terrain this afternoon/evening. Trough and associated front will begin to make it's way into the area tomorrow afternoon leading to an increase in shower/thunderstorm chances.
143 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 19z surface analysis had low near KATY with trough into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over KD07 with wrap-around precipitation over western SD.
335 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 As of 20Z, a strong low pressure system is centered over southwestern MN/northwestern IA with the associated mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas. The surface cold front extending from the low has been progressing eastward throughout the day and is located just west of Manhattan. Overnight and into Friday, the mid-level trough will swing northeast into Canada with zonal flow becoming dominant over the Central Plains. Surface ridging and subsidence will bring in drier air behind the front with dew points falling into the 50s while daytime temperatures reach the low 80s under plenty of sunshine.
A crossing cold front will then usher in drier air for the weekend. The aforementioned boundary is progged to lift northward Friday as a warm front in response to a deepening, 500mb closed low across the Central Plains. High resolution models suggest the development of a strong inversion as ridging amplifies ahead of the low. This warm layer should prohibit deep-convection potential through the majority of the day, with sufficient cloud cover expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The cold front moving out of the Panhandle has finally started to stall from a Dora to Tulia to Goodnight line. /issued 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ The cold front that will drive the showers and thunderstorms we'll see later today into tomorrow is currently moving south through southern Colorado and southern Kansas. Short term guidance is in pretty good agreement with the position of the cold front over us. POPS remain high through most of the day Friday as the cold front lifts north somewhat, and shifts east of our CWA by Friday night, when we begin to dry out.
The activity in the mountains will probably diminish this evening with loss of heating but a southward moving cold front in the Texas Panhandle will increase precipitation chances across the northern half of west Texas and southeast New Mexico later tonight and especially during the day Friday.
A cold front will approach and move through Friday into Friday night bringing additional thunderstorm activity to the region. High pressure and slightly cooler conditions will move into the region for the weekend. Another hot and humid day is in store for Friday in advance of a cold front that will move through late Friday into Friday night. Cooler air will begin to move into the region Friday with with locations northwest of Interstate 71 expected to drop down in the upper 50s to around 60. Locations closer to the frontal boundary where it will take longer for the clouds to clear out, have low temperatures dropping down into the lower to upper 60s.
With little to no rain expected across the region today along with high pressure building in, temperatures should top out a degree or two warmer than yesterday. /issued 609 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ Upper lvl ridging dominating wx pattern.
310 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Low pressure aloft continues to wrap up to the northwest as a cool front swings through the area. Otherwise west winds will bring in cooler air with lows likely in the lower to middle 50s. Friday will be a breezy and cool day with west winds gradually diminishing from west to east as weak surface ridging builds. Weak ridging builds through Friday night with a stronger southerly gradient developing through the night.
Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis show the trough axis and closed low are moving onto the Plains. At the surface the cold front was progressing east across the Plains ahead of the closed low. Today northwest winds will increase mid morning as the low level jet winds begin to mix down. As the day progresses winds will slowly decline as the stronger winds of the low level jet shift east. Due to the CAA highs will be close to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Friday WAA will cause highs to be warmer than today. A weak upper level short wave trough will develop overhead of the surface feature.
410 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2019 Updated Aviation A warming trend will continue the next few days as high pressure builds across the intermountain West. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend, mainly across higher terrain areas, but isolated storms will be possible into the lower deserts as well.
As of 20Z, a strong low pressure system is centered over southwestern MN/northwestern IA with the associated mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas. The surface cold front extending from the low has been progressing eastward throughout the day and is located just west of Manhattan. Overnight and into Friday, the mid-level trough will swing northeast into Canada with zonal flow becoming dominant over the Central Plains. Surface ridging and subsidence will bring in drier air behind the front with dew points falling into the 50s while daytime temperatures reach the low 80s under plenty of sunshine.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall across the majority of western and central North Dakota today, followed by the start of several days of dry weather and warmer temperatures on Friday. Currently, upper level low moving slowly east across the Dakotas this afternoon. Well defined TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) from north central ND wrapping back southward across western ND contributing to strong vertical ascent which is evident on region radar imagery and rainfall reports. However, enough boundary layer moisture and sufficient low level lapse rates will be present so that as the low stratus burns off/moves east, diurnally driven CU will likely develop in the stratus' wake.
404 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 WV imagery this afternoon showing a large closed circulation currently migrating slowly across the Dakotas with an upstream ridge over the northern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered near the SD/MN border with an associated cold from extending from southern MN through central IA then into eastern KS. Models are advertising that the large scale pattern will alter over the next several days as flow transitions from near zonal to more amplified in part to a strong upper low digging down the west coast.
Highest pops overall were placed across the southeast TX Panhandle tonight into Friday closest to the cold frontal boundary, decreasing to non-mentionable values in the OK Panhandle as well as parts of the northern Texas Panhandle tonight through Friday afternoon.
Northwest flow aloft over Colorado around an upper level low over the Northern Plains will turn westerly Friday. A low pressure trough deepens over eastern plains during the afternoon and will help produce gusty westerly winds over the higher foothills and mountains.
The current forecast is on track with the massive upper level ridge holding its position over the Eastern U.
905 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Clear skies persist across the TN Valley this evening, as high pressure maintains its hold across the region. Temps may be a degree or so warmer for Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms. A change is on the way though! As the upper level ridge begins to flatten out and shift Ewrd, a weak cold front will approach and then fizzle out across the area this weekend. Daytime highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints falling down into the lower/middle 60s.
342 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Northwest flow aloft over Colorado around an upper level low over the Northern Plains will turn westerly Friday. A low pressure trough deepens over eastern plains during the afternoon and will help produce gusty westerly winds over the higher foothills and mountains.
408 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Expect mainly dry weather through the period as ridging remains across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs tomorrow in the middle to upper 90s. Peak heat index values Friday will be in the lower 100s for most locations.
Updated at 330 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over KY and TN this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the low to mid 90s. A cold front associated with the northern wave will approach from the northwest Friday evening. Highs will once again push easily into the low to mid 90s. Updated at 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A weakening line of showers and storms will clip southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky on Friday evening as a cold front tries to drop south into the Ohio Valley.
Despite lack of distinct radar echoes, still expect many locations to continue to see drizzle and reduced visibility this evening before an area of greater coverage of rainfall propagates into the region overnight, as the upper level closed low pushes northeast into Minnesota. Water vapor loop has the upper low spinning over the Dakotas, with mid level dry air moving through our southern and eastern counties. Tonight, the low will move into MN. Have precip chances picking back up again later tonight before shifting off to the east tomorrow as the low pulls away from the region. Temps will remain cool behind the low pressure system, with the western counties getting into the 60s with 50s in MN where rain lingers longer.
A crossing cold front will then usher in drier air for the weekend. A few showers along a trough axis continue to push southward across portions of northern West Virginia. The mid/upper-level ridge axis will rotate through tonight, with return flow commencing beneath 850mb. The aforementioned boundary is progged to lift northward Friday as a warm front in response to a deepening, 500mb closed low across the Central Plains. High resolution models suggest the development of a strong inversion as ridging amplifies ahead of the low. This warm layer should prohibit deep-convection potential through the majority of the day, with sufficient cloud cover expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
Looking aloft, we see the trough making its way finally out of our area overnight. And as it moves out the corresponding ridge slides in from the west bringing in with westerly winds aloft transitioning to southwesterly winds. As the trough moves further east, we will see winds relax and become light and variable overnight tonight.
1005 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 There will be increased chances of showers over the weekend in an onshore flow between ridging to the north and tropical low pressure to the south. There will be some increase in moisture from the north well ahead of the backdoor front but the shower and thunderstorm chance should remain low because of surface and upper ridging plus nighttime cooling. The high-resolution models displayed dry conditions. Precipitation chances increase some on Friday as high pressure weakens and moisture increases with a backdoor front moving closer to the area.
High pressure begins to weaken going into the weekend. Currently, this wave has a high chance of developing a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
/NF/ Expect mainly dry weather through the period as ridging remains across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs tomorrow in the middle to upper 90s. Peak heat index values Friday will be in the lower 100s for most locations.
Will continue to monitor forecasts from NHC on potential tropic cyclone nine as it is expected to move NW and may impact FL this weekend, but uncertainties remain with this system at this point. /issued 320 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ An upper level high has been driving the anticyclonic motion of air around the feature as an upper level low continues to slowly propagate off to the West in the Central Gulf of Mexico, driving the weather across the peninsula.
605 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 At 3 PM, a low pressure area was located just east of Aberdeen SD. A cold front extended from this low southeast into south-central Minnesota and then south through central Iowa. A warm front extended from the Albert Lea MN southeast to Platteville WI. With 0-1 km shear of 30 knots, there will be the potential of isolated tornadoes along the warm front.