Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
444 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 H500 hand analysis map at 00Z showing the bulk of NOAM under a large scale trough with only AK and the the far southeast states under the influence of ridging. Our first trough is still translating across our eastern CWA this morning. Good ascent in the base of this trough with the upper jet making a cyclonic kink in the flow across our southern CWA. The passage of the third trough late this evening through Monday morning will signal a good uptick in precipitation across the region. Once again the colder air aloft in this trough will steepen lapse rates and an increase in snow rates will occur through the late afternoon hours before warm advection begins to kick back in. but most the time they are on the highest peaks.
613 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure and drier airmass will build into the region today through Monday. Will go ahead and allow the High Wind Warning to expire at 4 AM but may need to issue an SPS for a couple of hours to cover the borderline wind advisory winds. With cooler air filtering into the region, expect highs today ranging from the upper 30s in the northwest to the upper 40s across the southeast.
422 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 Early this morning a broad long wave trough was over the Central Rockies. Within the trough a smaller scale feature had generated flurries that was moving across the northern half of the forecast area. Behind them the sky will clear and a warm front will move in from the southwest. Similar to today, the cooler air will be east of Highway 83. Westerly winds will be breezing in the warmer air. Due to the dry environment in place am not expecting any precipitation either day despite some minor short wave troughs moving over the forecast area.
The 00z BRO sounding from last night was very dry at all levels, so expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the early portion of this current TAF set as it will take some time for better moisture advection to develop at the lower levels. /issued 356 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The old cold front in the Gulf of Mex is expected to move back up N and NW as a warm front today and Mon moving a little closer to the Tx coastline. This in combination with the approaching warm front will gradually increase the conv chcs mainly near the lower TX coastline and the offshore waters late Sun into Mon.
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible. Temperatures have been held down across the northeast corner of Indiana/south central MI and expect to see patches of freezing drizzle in that area before the boundary layer mixes out early morning hours Monday. Ridging pattern persists into the middle part of the week as the longwave pattern exhibits broad trofiness across the Central US. The broad trof over the Central US persists through the week before the next in a series of deepening short waves ejects through the plains and into the Great Lakes.
1017 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to mid 40s. /issued 354 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Today and Tonight Enjoy the 'absence of rain' and cooler temperatures today because an unsettled wet pattern and above normal temperatures are likely across the Mid-South for the majority of the week! A post-frontal stratus deck currently blankets much of the Mid-South this AM.
307 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Overall, a strong 500 mb ridge axis will remain in place over the Florida Keys through the week ahead, strengthening some during the second half of the week.
1048 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 H500 hand analysis map at 00Z showing the bulk of NOAM under a large scale trough with only AK and the the far southeast states under the influence of ridging. Our first trough is still translating across our eastern CWA this morning. Good ascent in the base of this trough with the upper jet making a cyclonic kink in the flow across our southern CWA. The passage of the third trough late this evening through Monday morning will signal a good uptick in precipitation across the region. Once again the colder air aloft in this trough will steepen lapse rates and an increase in snow rates will occur through the late afternoon hours before warm advection begins to kick back in. but most the time they are on the highest peaks.
Avery A cold front will track across the region today into tonight, bringing with it a chance for snow. Locations expecting the higher amounts have been placed in a Winter Weather Advisory.
137 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure through Monday. High pressure will provide generally dry weather through Monday. Afternoon highs will be cooler than the end of last week, but still well above normal. in the 50s across the lowlands today and around 60 Monday. The NAM is trying to spit out very light QPF Monday as a weak trough moves into the Great Lakes and a southern stream wave moves along the cold front that passed through last night.
Monday night with even further moistening, redevelopment of fog across the area, and even warmer lows in the 50s and low 60s.
1052 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 Short wave trough passing through Colorado will bring some light snow to the Continental Divide early this morning, while winds over the mountains and near most lee slopes become breezy at times into the afternoon. After a midday lull, snowfall chances along the Divide will increase late this afternoon and overnight as next trough approaches, and some pockets of heavier snow may develop over the eastern San Juans toward Mon morning as mid level flow turns more swly. Models don't bring winds very far down the east slopes however, and will keep strongest gusts limited to the higher terrain at this point. Min temps many areas will run just slightly warmer than the past few nights as clouds/winds increase.
The rest of the region will have snow, and some wind, with a cold front passage this evening and tonight, but snow amounts should mostly be 1-3 inches.
241 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Monday is still looking to be a rather breezy day as a broad upper trough swings across the Central Plains. The big midweek cold front is looking milder and milder with each model run. The good news, Pacific moisture is still on track to stream in late week and interact with a much more potent trough than the wind-making ones.
The primary issue in this area is the freezing drizzle. There is also a light band of snow across southern Nebraska working east that will bring an end to the freezing drizzle from west to east this afternoon. Precipitation is expected to begin between 6am and noon as lift increases and the low levels become more saturated. The predominant precip type will be light snow, but the HRRR and RAP are hinting at the potential for some freezing drizzle at times as we lose saturation aloft. Ultimately, I decided to side with the HRRR/RAP solution and added some freezing drizzle to the more favorable southeastern portions of the forecast area.
107 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure and drier airmass will build into the region today through Monday. With cooler air filtering into the region, expect highs today ranging from the upper 30s in the northwest to the upper 40s across the southeast.
This is due to a developing lee troughing in the High Plains of the western Dakotas. The lee troughing in the High Plains continues to develop and move east on Monday as a mid level wave rounds the base of an upper low anchored in the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
355 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley and baroclinic zone off to the southeast. We have seen some south winds in the 1000 to 850 mb range, which seems to be leading to perhaps bit of downsloping thats eroding the lower clouds this afternoon. This will allow for perhaps additional lower stratus to develop or build back east later tonight into Monday, as the low level moisture remains stuck underneath a low level inversion evident on the forecast soundings.
Temperatures have held in the upper 40s to lower 50s, a little warmer across the Plateau. The aforementioned boundary will begin to work back to the north as a warm front on Monday.
/issued 1017 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to mid 40s. /issued 354 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Today and Tonight Enjoy the 'absence of rain' and cooler temperatures today because an unsettled wet pattern and above normal temperatures are likely across the Mid-South for the majority of the week! A post-frontal stratus deck currently blankets much of the Mid-South this AM.
207 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Conditions will remain warm and humid for today and through the work week with the subtropical ridge axis in control, much like one would expect in the middle of summer, but not in January. Generally warm and dry conditions will remain all the way until next Sunday, when a glimmer of hope is on the horizon in the form of another cold front. There is not much optimism that the front will provide a lot of relief given how challenging it will be, among other things, for parcels to grow warmer than the surrounding environment and gain positive buoyancy. Warm and humid conditions continue through the week with high pressure in control.
1220 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue until low pressure returns later in the week.
230 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Warm, dry weather will continue until low pressure returns later in the week.
222 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, an area of low pressure was moving into the Central Plains, allowing southerly flow to persist across west Texas. Over the next few hours, winds should diminish as the area of low pressure and an upper-level impulse move east.
1223 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure will move into the region today behind the cold front that pushed through the region last night. It will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy today with high temperatures back to normal for this time of year, reaching the lower to middle 30s. It will trend warmer for the first part of the work week with highs mainly in the 40s.
Temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 50s and a few spots will reach into the lower 60s before peak heating ends. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday evening was well south of the area, draped along the Carolina coast, southward into the Florida Panhandle. This will slowly lift northward as a warm front later this evening, with moisture increasing through the overnight hours. A broad upper trough over the central CONUS and a ridge over the Atlantic was keeping southwest flow over the TN Valley, which will aid in the moisture return over the area ahead of the front. The warm front will continue to slowly progress northward on Monday, before stalling over the region.
341 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Ridge of high pressure will drift east of the region overnight as a weak area of low pressure moves across the central Great Lakes late tonight into Monday.
Southeast winds will continue around the Atlantic ridge but will continue to slacken from recent days. Deep layer ridging continues over the region. Deep layer ridging to become dominant from the western Atlc extending to across the GoM. High pressure remains a fixture over the western Altc through the extended.
Low clouds continue to dominate the lower OH Valley and our 4 TAF sites at this time, with MVFR ceilings from about 1500-2500 ft agl.
1032 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The CWA looks to be situated between isolated snow showers across ND, and an area of low pressure/snow to our south. Will continue to watch the low pressure off to our south to see if it looks like the far southeast corner of the CWA will see anything by this evening.
Freezing Fog may develop tonight mainly after midnight. As the trough at the surface moves through the area this evening it will produce warm air advection overnight as winds shift southwesterly. This will lead to the potential for freezing fog after midnight as warm air over-rides cold air on the ground.
Current National Weather Service Doppler Radar shows a band of moderate snow developing in the lower Treasure Valley.
CIGs are then expected lower to IFR/MVFR levels as a weak warm front lifts north over South Texas.
Temperatures are warming into the lower to mid 50s by late morning.
High pressure builds in later tonight and Monday for drier weather. Sensible weather then quiets down by tonight into Monday with southern nose of polar high pressure building into the region. A dampening upper H5 trough passing through the mean west- southwest flow aloft may bring a few flurries to northern higher terrain but that's about it.
115 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday.
With the warm front to the southeast, low stratus deck may persist into the afternoon. In addition, as the warm front advances north rain chances will increase affecting all taf sites after 00z Monday.
1052 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 A low stratus deck overnight with southerly flow caused low temperatures this morning to be slightly warmer than was previously forecasted with temperatures actually slightly warming overnight in places. This will allow a shot of WAA in the lower levels and provide just enough lift to cause some snow and rain over the region late this afternoon.
919 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 Early this morning a broad long wave trough was over the Central Rockies. Within the trough a smaller scale feature had generated flurries that was moving across the northern half of the forecast area. Behind them the sky will clear and a warm front will move in from the southwest. Similar to today, the cooler air will be east of Highway 83. Westerly winds will be breezing in the warmer air. Due to the dry environment in place am not expecting any precipitation either day despite some minor short wave troughs moving over the forecast area.
1132 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The CWA looks to be situated between isolated snow showers across ND, and an area of low pressure/snow to our south. Will continue to watch the low pressure off to our south to see if it looks like the far southeast corner of the CWA will see anything by this evening.
134 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 20z surface analysis had warm front from eastern SK through central NE. Cold front has pushed into central to northeast MT. Pleasant day southwest of the warm front over the CWA, but still chilly northeast of the front. Water vapour showed energy pouring into the northwest CONUS, which is carving out upper trough. Tonight, upper trough moves into MT as warm front stalls and front oozes into southeast MT. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with warmest readings over the higher terrain.
The highest snow amounts (1. Active weather through the period with several waves of low pressure potentially impacting the area.
An upper trough will cross the Rockies and reach the Northern and Central High Plains on Monday. This will bring a warmup to all areas with forecast highs nudged warmer to the low to mid 40s west and upper 30s east. A cold front will quickly sweep through the area Monday night bringing a gusty west to northwest wind up to 20 mph. Wind chills will fall to the low single digits northeast late Monday night.
Expect 5 to 10 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts possible over the higher peaks. Local blowing and drifting is expected over the higher terrain.
403 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A weak weather system will lift across the region tonight, before high pressure works into the region Monday.
High pressure will move east of the region tonight with surface winds becoming east to southeast. With clear skies over the north, there could be some patchy fog developing over the north prior to the lower clouds moving in. A developing warm front will approach the coast early Monday with clouds developing and areas of light rain/drizzle developing toward the coast. Upper ridging will expand westward and anchor itself over the Gulf through mid week.
/issued 222 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, an area of low pressure was moving into the Central Plains, allowing southerly flow to persist across west Texas. Over the next few hours, winds should diminish as the area of low pressure and an upper-level impulse move east.
/issued 241 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Monday is still looking to be a rather breezy day as a broad upper trough swings across the Central Plains. The big midweek cold front is looking milder and milder with each model run. The good news, Pacific moisture is still on track to stream in late week and interact with a much more potent trough than the wind-making ones.
840 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A well organized high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the NE GOMex will maintain a steady state WX pattern overnight with a light but steady E/SE sfc breeze acrs central FL.
Things will change heading into tonight and Monday as a warm front lifts north into the region. As dewpoints increase further into the afternoon and Monday night, will expect sea fog development over the bays and nearshore waters, where SSTs remain in the lower 60s. Overnight temperatures will also be warmer due to the increased moisture, with lows in the mid-upper 50s, roughly a 10-20 degree increase in some locations.
549 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Warm, dry weather will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. High pressure will support quiet conditions through the period. Overnight temperature should remain elevated under a cloudy sky in southerly flow ahead of an encroaching Great Lakes trough.
649 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A weak weather system will lift across the region tonight, before high pressure works into the region Monday.
Radar showing a few showers aligned along a slowly retreating warm front over the northwest Gulf. Precipitation is moving to the northeast as the warm front is beginning to back to the north at this time. Winds to swing around to the southeast tomorrow as high pressure migrates off to the northeast. As the warm front lifts out of the gulf showers a few isolated thunderstorms will develop and increase in area coverage late morning into the afternoon hours tomorrow.
Warm front will remain nearly stationary/slowly drift north over the coastal waters overnight. Several short waves passing east across the Plains will pull the warm front north Monday. The shallow cold pool will retreat north as the warm front moves north along the Mississippi Delta. Water temps in the low 60s. Warm front to the south titled our office to issue a Dense Fog advisory for land and marine tonight. Warm front will move north Monday with the higher chance of rain shifting north through the day and slowly shifting north of the area Monday night.
Precipitation is moving to the northeast as the warm front is beginning to back to the north at this time. Winds to swing around to the southeast tomorrow as high pressure migrates off to the northeast. As the warm front lifts out of the gulf showers a few isolated thunderstorms will develop and increase in area coverage late morning into the afternoon hours tomorrow.
713 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Strong high pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge west-southwest over Florida for the next several days.
High pressure will remain over the southeast U. On Monday, a warm front will start to lift north across the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be warmer on Monday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The warm front will continue to move closer to the Mid-South Monday night with a better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
403 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The freezing drizzle has pretty much ended across our forecast area and the last band of snow is working east towards Highway 81. We will be between these fast moving short waves and should be dry and warmer with highs back above freezing for the entire forecast area.
Low confidence that any precip will make it into our area tonight, but will keep the low PoPs south and east. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 66 59 70 / 20 50 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 63 56 68 / 10 30 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 44 63 54 68 / 10 20 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 63 51 65 / 10 10 70 80.
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday.
The low cloud deck covering the mid-state is slowly moving off to the north.
Discussion Broad synoptic scale troughing encompasses the western two-thirds of the conus. 1-3" is likely as the snowfall quickly passes through the evening hours with the highest totals north of I-80.
526 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled as the light wintry precipitation (freezing drizzle/snow) has ended/shifted eastward. The freezing drizzle has pretty much ended across our forecast area and the last band of snow is working east towards Highway 81. We will be between these fast moving short waves and should be dry and warmer with highs back above freezing for the entire forecast area.
Freezing drizzle that developed ahead of the wave in an area of weak low level lift has been working its way across the northern half of the CWA this afternoon, and had created some slick spots on area roadways. This batch of freezing drizzle should come to an end as the lift shifts east of the area late this afternoon and early this evening. Temperatures will remain below freezing so if fog forms, a few slick spots could redevelop on area roadways. Temperatures are currently forecast to reach the low 40s and mid 40s within the region of WAA.
508 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley and baroclinic zone off to the southeast. We have seen some south winds in the 1000 to 850 mb range, which seems to be leading to perhaps bit of downsloping thats eroding the lower clouds this afternoon. This will allow for perhaps additional lower stratus to develop or build back east later tonight into Monday, as the low level moisture remains stuck underneath a low level inversion evident on the forecast soundings.
409 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 20z surface analysis had warm front from eastern SK through central NE. Cold front has pushed into central to northeast MT. Pleasant day southwest of the warm front over the CWA, but still chilly northeast of the front. Water vapour showed energy pouring into the northwest CONUS, which is carving out upper trough. Tonight, upper trough moves into MT as warm front stalls and front oozes into southeast MT. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with warmest readings over the higher terrain.
931 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A weak weather system will lift across the region tonight, before high pressure works into the region Monday.
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible. Temperatures have been held down across the northeast corner of Indiana/south central MI and expect to see patches of freezing drizzle in that area before the boundary layer mixes out early morning hours Monday. Ridging pattern persists into the middle part of the week as the longwave pattern exhibits broad troughiness across the Central US. The broad trof over the Central US persists through the week before the next in a series of deepening short waves ejects through the plains and into the Great Lakes.
Southerly winds as well as some breaks in the cloud cover tomorrow should result in warmer high temperatures Monday, around 10 degrees above normal as well as more snow melt.
Expect temperatures during this short term period to be above average, with afternoon highs tomorrow reaching the low to mid-60s, and lows tomorrow night ranging from the upper-40s and 50s.