Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had low pressure located off the coast of British Columbia with a trough of low pressure extending southwest into the eastern Pacific. Downstream of this feature, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from the northern plains into south central Canada. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended from northeastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. With H85 temps ranging from 6C in the east to the lower teens in the west, highs should reach the middle 50s in the east, to middle 60s in the eastern panhandle. In sheltered and low lying areas, enough dry air exists, which will allow lows to reach the lower 30s. Clouds will also increase as well overnight, which will facilitate warmer low temperatures.
858 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 Mild weather will continue through Thursday with occasional high clouds ahead of a trough passing by to the north. The trough will drift south Thursday night and Friday for cooler weather, gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts, and a slight chance for light rain or drizzle along and west of the mountains.
Showers will decrease Friday as a weak ridge begins to build over the area.
410 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Only some lingering clouds remain in the vicinity of the weak cold front pushing into Georgia this morning as the few earlier light showers in far north Georgia have long dissipated. Highs will warm nicely under the abundant sunshine into the 60s in north Georgia to the lower 70s in central Georgia.
1030 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 No problems expected this period with ridging aloft and at the surface resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Next cold front will impact the local area on Friday. Precipitation chances arrive Friday night with the upper trough. The weekend will be dry under ridging/northwest flow.
Then we turn our focus to a upper level closed low across the Central Plains on Tuesday morning and a developing low pressure ahead of it. The models are a bit different with respect to the location of the low pressure which leads to a bit more uncertainty overall. Despite that, This is expected to bring a warm front northward and increase PWATs back into the 1. With the mid level ridge just off the east coast and nosing into the the southeast CONUS, the Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to be drawn north into the OH Valley. A low pressure system develops over the central Plains as an open wave shifts east on Tuesday. Ahead of this, precip chances will be on the increase through the day on Tuesday as the cold front out west develops and lifts to the northeast.
Moisture-starved cold front is advancing across central upper MI and ne WI (presently between Gd Marais and Munising). Incoming cold front will slowly and unsteadily cross northern MI from nw to se today. In addition, ahead of the cold front, some cu development is likely this afternoon in ne lower. Arrival of cooler air today is gradual enough to allow for yet another borderline summery day in northern MI. Min temps tonight will be cooler, thanks to a cooler and drier incoming airmass. A low pressure system currently across the Rockies will move slowly east northeastward over the next few days. So as the low moves up toward the region.
and Tuesday The cold front in eastern Wisconsin will move very slowly east today, as it nearly parallels the upper flow which is southwest.
Dry conditions are expected today through Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the Pac NW and the Northern Rockies. Lee troughing will develop over central Montana by this evening with surface pressure increasing over eastern Idaho/northwest Wyoming. Low temperatures in the 20s to 30s are expected tonight, with slightly warmer temperatures for Tuesday night (lows in the 30s).
Skies will become partly cloudy for a period this evening before a low pressure system moving ENE out of the Plains states approaches the Ohio Valley. Later tonight, we'll see more clouds return with rain ahead of the warm front entering southern KY toward sunrise. Low temps should range through the low to mid 60s. More unsettled weather is expected for Tuesday with showers/storms expected throughout the day as the warm front lifts northward through our region.
Current expectations are the cold front entering the Hill Country this evening, surging across the I-35/Highway 90 Escarpment areas overnight (Austin and San Antonio metro areas between 2 and 4 AM), then exiting to the Coastal Plains early Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will pass to the north of our area as an upper level ridge begins to build to the west along the Gulf Coast states leaving the cold front and isentropic lift as the only forcing mechanisms for convective development.
The main aviation issue will be the passage of a cold front overnight tomorrow sometime between 6-12Z at all TAF sites. A cold front will approach the area by 06Z Tuesday. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected across South Central Texas on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Later in the evening and through Tuesday morning, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect most of South Central Texas as a cold front pushes over the area.
08Z analysis shows a weak cold front from west of Green Bay to Prairie du Chien to Des Moines. This boundary will be south and east of the forecast area by 12Z this morning with high pressure building in its wake for the rest of the day. Highs today will be noticeably cooler in the post frontal airmass, topping out in the upper 50s into the 60s.
428 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Extensive mid level cloud cover has been persisting across the local area overnight ahead of a cold front across western Nebraska. when the main upper level low helps to push this cold front across the local area. expect the attention to turn from a blustery evening to the potential for near freezing temperatures and frost formation early Tuesday morning. opted not to issue a freeze warning and kept the watch going so the day shift can gain some more confidence on if freezing temperatures or frost will eventually be realized across the western fringes of the local forecast area.
Much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions will be seen today across much of the area.
659 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 The remnant low pressure center of Hurricane Nate will pull away to the northeast today. A low pressure system will bring another chance of rain to the region for the middle part of the week. High pressure to build across the region tonight. The 00Z models are slower in bringing pcpn back into the region along a warm front, therefore dropped PoPs on Tuesday to slight chance in the south and keep the ne dry.
Keeping with that thinking expecting the lowest temps to be in the mid 20s in SE ND and NW MN with the rest of the area in the upper 20s to near 30.
The much anticipated cold front is still on track to push thru the area late tonight and Tuesday morning. After a couple days of welcome cooler wx, onshore winds will resume and a warming trend will ensue. Upper ridge will expand back overhead from the east during the second half of the week driving temps back up to around 10 degrees above normal going into the weekend. Indications are the upper ridge will flatten and become re-centered to our west. Forecasts remaining on track with passage of a cold front into the coastal waters Tues morning. However, the arrival and passage of cold front overnight (toward the end of this TAF forecast) could produce isol- ated to scattered showers along/to just ahead of this boundary dur- ing the overnight hours.
144 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the ern CONUS and a trough from nrn Manitoba into the Rockies resulting in sw flow through the plains and nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended from just west of James Bay through wrn Lake Superior. Monday, high pressure building into the area with anticyclonic nrly flow will bring mostly sunny skies and high temps into the upper 50s west and lower 60s southeast. Above normal temperatures will return towards the end of the week ahead of an approaching cold front.
An upper ridge sits over the south after Nate diminishes, leaving us on the warm side.
Brief ridging over central Indiana will result in dry conditions today.
A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front will traverse the high plains region through tonight. Given the positively tilted nature of the system, cold air will rush southward just ahead of the trough.
medium to high: A slow moving cold front will drop through southern Wisconsin today. Temps in the northwest will be cooler, but still a couple/few degrees above average values. Forcing along the front will be fairly limited, though models are showing a decent amount of lift in the lower levels. Even with the cloud cover, looks like a good enough push in cooler temps behind the departing front for lows cooler than the last couple nights.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s for many, though it will remain slightly cooler on the Plateau as the clouds hang out a little longer. Showers are expected to accompany the northward progression of the warm front breaking into southern Middle TN before daybreak on Tuesday. Once the warm front passes through Middle TN, this will put the entire mid-state into the warm sector of this system and by early afternoon, many will begin to see scattered thunderstorms develop.
High pressure will continue to build over western Montana leading to a day of mostly sunny skies and light winds. Although high pressure will remain for Tuesday, winds will begin to increase, especially in the higher terrain and over the Camas Prairie in Idaho in advance of the next weather system.
Then we turn our focus to a upper level closed low across the Central Plains on Tuesday morning and a developing low pressure ahead of it. The models are a bit different with respect to the location of the low pressure which leads to a bit more uncertainty overall. Despite that, This is expected to bring a warm front northward and increase PWATs back into the 1. An upper level ridge will be the dominant feature across the southeastern CONUS, while troughing remains in place west of the Rockies. By the end of the week, the pattern will become more progressive, as the western trough moves to the east, dampening the upper level ridge.
The upper level trough over eastern Utah will exit to the east this morning. A cool northerly flow aloft trailing this trough will give way to an increasingly warm southwesterly flow on Tuesday.
358 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma shortly after sunrise and make much quicker southward progress than eastward. As mid-upper level jet rounds trough and progresses quickly eastward late today, surface cyclone and front will increase eastward pace and surge through central and eastern portions of Oklahoma this evening. Well behind the front, across northwest and north-central parts of Oklahoma, light showers will be scattered this evening and overnight as upper low moves overhead.
With this abundant moisture in place, PoPs will remain above normal for this time of year, ranging from the 20-60 percent range with the higher PoPs across southeast Alabama and across the far eastern portion of the CWA.
High pressure and modest offshore flow will provide dry and mild weather over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon today.
The western CONUS trough continues to translate slowly east with flow becoming more split with time. This cuts off the southern extension of the trough for later tonight with the northern stream trough moving through the areas. We still have some mid level moisture associated with the upper trough/jet streak moving across the Dakotas/Minnesota portion of the region. Will continue the low end PoP for the scenario for now.
high pressure over the NRN Plains was gradually building into the CNTRL Plains along with a very subtle thermal boundary extending from NRN IA to SW KS.
Low level moisture is on the increase across portions of southern Oklahoma early this morning, per mesonet dew point trends, as southerly winds strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level storm system. The front should clear the area tomorrow morning, with much cooler temperatures behind it for the middle of the week.
Beneficial rains falling throughout with brief heavy rainfall rates in some cells now lifting northward from the SC mtns into the Ridge and Valley region and Lower Susq River Valley. Most of the rain will be done by 16Z - but storm totals are still expected to be about 1-2inches everywhere with the highest totals in the WC zones.
A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest.
High pressure brings a dry Tuesday, and then another rain chance arrives for midweek. High pressure then pushes in from the west, which will bring any lingering showers to an end tonight, and perhaps allow for some partial clearing. Dry weather continues Tuesday as the high center tracks across northern Pennsylvania, with high temperatures fairly similar to today.
A weak cold front will drift across the region tonight. Light westerly winds today will veer to the north overnight behind a weak cold front dropping south. An upper low will move through the Midwest and approach the southern Great Lakes region late Tuesday night.
219 AM PDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Drier weather will linger over the area into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure remains in place.
CC Scattered rain and snow showers will dissipate overnight, as high pressure builds over the region. Breezy, dry, and warmer conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will briefly ridge into the area on Tuesday.
327 AM PDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A series of mainly dry cold fronts will provide periods of gusty winds and cool downs this week.
106 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 The strongest cold front of the season will move through the area tonight shifting winds to a northerly direction. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are anticipated to range from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas. The cold front mentioned in the short term will be well south of the area by tomorrow night with continued northerly winds. As for temperatures, lows are expected to range form around freezing along the KS/CO border to low 40s across south central Kansas.
431 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Upper level analysis has a positively tilted upper trof over the central Rockies and northern Plains, with ridging building into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure has settled across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. Upper level trof will continue to shift east of the area this morning, with light rain and rain mixed with snow coming to an end across south central SD. With Tripp county not seeing freezing temperatures yet this Fall, a freeze warning has been issued for tonight into Tuesday morning. Upper ridging will take place for mid week, with southwest flow aloft taking over for the latter part of the week.
Tuesday will be dry as high pressure noses into the area. Tonight and Tuesday, high pressure from the northern Great Lakes will nose down into the region. Partly sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with continued mild conditions as temperatures max out in the lower to middle 70s. Tuesday night remains dry as high pressure in the northeast moves slowly east ahead of a storm in the Plains.
A strong piece of the upper trough over the northwest CONUS this afternoon, will continue to dig southeastward into the Southern Rockies tonight, before ejecting eastward across the Central Plains from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. This will allow the frontal zone to strengthen tonight across southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, then moving southward as a cold front across Kansas Monday into Monday night. A few strong to severe storms appears plausible if surface dewpoints can reach the lower-middle 60s or higher with highs in the lower-middle 80s. Much cooler air will push into the forecast area behind the front Monday night through Tuesday night, with below normal fall-like temperatures.
432 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 The remnant low pressure center of Hurricane Nate will pull away to the northeast today. A low pressure system will bring another chance of rain to the region for the middle part of the week. High pressure to build across the region tonight. The 00Z models are slower in bringing pcpn back into the region along a warm front, therefore dropped PoPs on Tuesday to slight chance in the south and keep the ne dry.
Looking for temperatures to respond quickly with temperatures into the lower 90s most locations this afternoon.
1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure is draped over the area this afternoon. This ridge is separating tropical depression Nate from a low over the Oklahoma Panhandle. With the clear sky in place and light variable wind over our area between the two low pressure systems, we should see fog develop again tonight. A cold front will approach the area from western Missouri. The low is expected to move northeast along the warm front on Tuesday into early Tuesday evening through the area. The ECMWF/NAM has a low moving over central into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois and gradually deepening as the low tracks from west to east across the area. The front will clear the area by late Tuesday evening with high pressure building into the region behind the front from the Plains.
Temperatures were in the low 80s, and dew points were in the mid to upper 70s. A high pressure ridge will rapidly build across the western Atlantic later this afternoon and tonight, creating an easterly wind surge across the Florida Keys that will last through much of the week.
An upper ridge will move across the region today for sunshine and highs in the upper 50s and 60s. A weak cold front and upper trough will move into Western Washington Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing showers and possible thunderstorms.
313 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 As of 3 am the strong cold front was just entering the Panhandle. A trough will move through overnight, however, winds will stay around 15-20 mph overnight which should limit cooling some. A few areas in the extreme southwestern Panhandle may get close to freezing. Temperatures will slowly warm as the high over the southeast build west over Texas.
The weather will be cool and breezy today in the wake of a cold front passage this morning. Expect a warmer air mass to move into the area by Tuesday afternoon bringing a return of near average temperatures that will last through the week.
For Monday, moist south to southwest flow will continue over the local region with an upper trough and approaching cold front to our west and deep layer ridging to our east.
An upper level trough currently over Idaho will continue pushing southeast tonight. The airmass associated with the high pressure is certainly cold with 925 mb temps in the single digits, or around the 25th percentile. Weak CAA should produce highs only in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Monday night into Tuesday, a few temperature guidance sources have KABR dipping into the low 20s.
Bigger questions come on Tuesday into Tuesday evening as a very potent mid level short wave and its associated cold front move into the mid MS River Valley/lower OH River Valley region. Forecast soundings continue to indicate strong deep-layer shear as the h50 short wave takes on a bit of a negative tilt and 50-60 kt jet rotates around the base of the main trof axis.
358 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front will traverse the high plains region through tonight. Given the positively tilted nature of the system, cold air will rush southward just ahead of the trough.
Tupelo and Memphis remain in the low 70s with widespread upper 60s across the region. Southerly flow will strengthen tonight and tomorrow as a highly amplified trough and associated surface cold front approach from the West. This trough looks a bit more amplified than yesterday and attains a neutral to slightly negative tilt as it approaches the Mississippi River tomorrow afternoon.
A Frost Advisory is in effect for the Treasure Valley where temperatures will bottom out to around freezing. A dry northerly flow will shift east this morning as an upper ridge moves in this afternoon. The ridge will shift east tonight followed by southwest flow aloft on Tuesday. The flow will bring warmer temperatures with highs near normal.
High pressure brings a dry Tuesday, and then another rain chance arrives for midweek. One last slug of steadier rain just east of the low center will track mainly east of Pittsburgh over the next several hours, aided by a moist low level jet/850mb convergence. High pressure then pushes in from the west, which will bring any lingering showers to an end tonight, and perhaps allow for some partial clearing. Dry weather continues Tuesday as the high center tracks across northern Pennsylvania, with high temperatures fairly similar to today.
Temperatures should remain above normal trough Tuesday.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the region with mostly clear skies that will allow for good radiational cooling and overnight low temps are expected to fall into the 30s except into the 20s across the higher elevations. VFR conditions with light winds are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure settles in across the region. The upper level ridge will begin to break down Monday afternoon allowing SCT-BKN cirrus to begin spilling into the area. An upper level ridge will continue to build into the Pacific Northwest tonight. Low temps early Monday morning in the Lower Columbia Basin, the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, and the Simcoe Highlands will be around 32 degrees. The upper ridge will track east-southeast across the region Monday and Monday night.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build into the region bringing some drier air over the area along with increasing subsidence which will gradually lower the rain chances.
/issued 323 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017/ A fairly stagnant pattern for most of the week, with a 500 mb high pressure centered just to the north.
Attention quickly turns west with the approach of another cold front. The parent upper low will continue digging southeast across the Rockies before rapidly ejecting northeast through early week.
But in the north, temperatures will likely not drop below freezing, expect maybe in the far west of clearing makes it from NE MT into NW ND.
1141 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 The surface cold front made quick progress south over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado this evening. The upper level low over the western WY/northern UT area will continue dropping south-southeast overnight. Dynamical forcing and ascent ahead of the trough is evident in evening satellite imagery with a plume of colder cloud tops extending from central UT northeast over WY. A developing storm and its cold front will move out of the Northern Rockies and move from north to south across the area tonight and Monday. By 00z Tuesday the closed low should be over SE CO with northerly flow, cold advection and clearing skies over the area. A transitory ridge will move across the area by late Tuesday afternoon.
1054 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Drier weather will work across the area tonight and into early Tuesday care of a ridge of high pressure.