Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Deep NE Pac upper trough will support a splitting stronger impulse into the region, bringing a temporary break in cold arctic air over most of the fa. The main impact from this system will be breezy conds and a period of warmer air this morning. Stronger flow reflection will support a stronger WAA push into the region with many locations over NE WY and the Black Hills warming above freezing tonight. This trough will will support a period of gusty winds on the SD plains, possibly adv winds.
Low level surface inversion sets up maintaining or further thickening the cloud cover tonight before the more established southeast flow partially mixes through the low level moisture for a mostly-partly cloudy Monday.
Thursday will dry under high pressure ridging with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. FROPA has occurred and dry air is pushing into the region, dropping RH values into the lower teens thus far.
/Thursday through Wednesday/ Thursday will begin hot and humid as low-level flow veers to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Dewpoints will likely range in the low to mid-70s like today, with temperatures climbing several degrees higher due to enhanced warm air advection and warmer morning start temperatures. The cold front will surge across the area between the late afternoon and early nighttime hours. It will depend on the relative strength and motion of the low-level high and low pressure systems and there is a fairly high degree of uncertainty.
834 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2016 High pressure will move off of the New England coast Thursday.
Showers and storms will be more numerous tomorrow afternoon as an upper level trough moves into the region, therefore, included VCTS at all of the terminals after 20z.
A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late afternoon and evening hours. Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on Thursday. Upper ridging will build into the Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.
749 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight into Thursday morning.
The weak upper ridging keeping most of the area dry but an upper low and troughing will ramp up the POPS late tonight across WRN KY overnight and act more like a tropical system. With upper low and trough overhead and coupled with high PWATs have increased pops to likely (even categorical from 18-21z) very heavy localized rainfall amounts are expected.
Isolated SHRA will be possible along the sea/bay breeze again Thursday afternoon, but subsidence from upper ridging looks to keep coverage too low to include in TAF. Skies should clear by around midnight over most of the area and temperatures fall into the lower 80s. Models still keep the mid level circulation over land for 24-30 at least but still might try to eek the low levels out over the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche for a few hours. Upper ridge over TX has been holding strong of late and at times stronger than model progs.
Exception is south of I-70, where mainly slight chance PoP's around 20% will be kept in the forecast as the MCV and upper trough tracks eastward. After some areas of light fog early in the morning, sunshine is expected to be fairly prevalent through the day, although the threat of isolated storms will linger south of I-70 as the upper trough pushes through the Ohio Valley. and the western ridge pushing just far enough east to send the temps higher.
/issued 202 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016/ The focus is on tracking the upper level high and associated heat dome across the central part of the country. For Thursday the center of the upper level high will be west of the region over the central plains.
The 500mb meter height is basically unchanged and the freezing level is now up near 17kft. VFR conditions will continue to dominate under a strong ridge of high pressure.
These trends suggest weak forcing and instability ahead of developing east Pacific trough.
Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. S/SW winds up to 10-15 knots expected overnight, as high pressure ridge axis remains south of the area.
That said, the environment remains very favorable for development and intensification, especially as the cold front progresses east. Watching progression of cold front this afternoon as it moves east across the western Dakotas. Plenty of moisture and instability ahead of the front and also noting the approach of a potent upper level trough. On Thursday, much drier air will be moving in behind the departing cold front. Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s with high temperatures cooling down into the low to mid 80s.
While there may be some some isolated thunderstorms and lingering debris cloudiness early tomorrow, still think there will enough solar insolation tomorrow for temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s thanks to the recent rainfall. Combination of highest heat and humidity tomorrow to cause the highest heat index will be over a small part of central Missouri where values will be around 105 degrees.
1151 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 We will remain on the northeastern periphery of an upper level ridge into Thursday. With dew points generally remaining in the lower 70s, we are looking at heat indices in the 100-108 degree range over many areas.
The bulk of the upper level forcing will be with the trough, but an associated sfc cold front will hang well south, and will slip west-east across the local area thu evening. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, highs nearing 90 and what should be a decent amount of sun proceeding the front, SBCAPES of +3000 J/kg are progged for the late afternoon hours.
/issued 325 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper high continues to grip West Central Texas through Thursday with sizzling hot temperatures. (Thursday through Wednesday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will result in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas for the next 7 days.
A cold front approaches the area from the northwest overnight tonight and moves across the forecast area during the day on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will move into the region behind the cold front with portions of northeast Colorado only reaching into the lower 80s. Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous by late afternoon as a short wave trough begins lifting out of eastern New Mexico and northeastward across northwest Kansas.
Little change is expected through the end of the week as high pressure aloft remains in the region keeping a lid on most activity except for south central Louisiana which is on the edge of the oppressive high pressure zone and may get a boost in pops in the morning and early afternoon hours as weak disturbances rotate into this area from the east and northeast.
1254 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A warm front will lift north across the area overnight.
A weak drying trend is forecast to begin tomorrow although taking a look at the low/mid level flow, it still retains a noteworthy easterly component.
An isolated shower is possible along a weak land breeze early Thursday morning (possibly near Galveston) and again along the sea breeze in the afternoon, but subsidence from upper ridging over Texas will keep coverage too limited to include any mention in the TAFs attm. /ISSUED / The high pressure ridge over the area will slowly drift northward for the next several days.
Much cooler conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend thanks to a pattern change ahead.
Otherwise little to no cumulus on Thu due to warmer temps aloft but a cold front will bring showers and tstorms for the evening hours over south central WI. A cold front will then shift the winds to wnwly for Fri.
1156 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Broad area of high pressure is in place across the region at 19Z with a cold front moving into the western Dakotas. The cold front will move southeast tonight and reach northeast Nebraska by Thursday morning and far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late Thursday afternoon.
89/GSatterwhite Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s. /Issued 256 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016/ Large upper level ridge across much of the southern CONUS will continue to be our main weather influence over the next seven day forecast period.
the cold front continues to move south. Looks like the smoke will get mixed out soon as the north wind moves in with the cold front passage. A strong low pressure trough passing through the Northern Rockies into the northern Great Basin will continue to produce strong gusty winds with very low relative humidity and an unstable air mass until 9 pm mdt. A cold front will pass through the state through the night with a sharp wind shift to the northeast. Much colder air will move in with freezing temperatures possible in the mountain valleys of the west.
Sunny and cool today under upper trough. Cool again tonight as the trough exits east, then warmer Thursday as upper ridge rebuilds over our area.
The low-level winds also have an upslope component to them with scattered showers continuing into the evening and overnight hours along and east of the Appalachian Mountains. More widespread chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast tomorrow as an upper level low moves across the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 74 92 / 10 60 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 72 89 / 10 60 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 89 72 90 / 10 60 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 87 69 87 / 30 50 40 50.
Temperatures have surprisingly been running warmer than yesterday in big part due to a more compressed marine layer (currently around 1000 feet) plus higher temperatures aloft (indicated off the KOAK sounding). Tomorrow should be the start of a cooling trend as a longwave trough begins to advance down the coast from the north.
501 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016 Upper low is over northern MT, and a 90-kt jet is rounding the base of the trough. At the surface, low pressure has moved into western ND. Cold front has begun passing through the CWA, with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front becoming gusty from the northwest behind. As the cold front pushes into moister air, storms will intensify. Eventually storms are expected to form into a line along the cold front, with large hail and strong winds will be possible. Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
VFR conditions will continue to dominate under a strong ridge of high pressure.
928 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 We will remain on the northeastern periphery of an upper level ridge into Thursday. With dew points generally remaining in the lower 70s, we are looking at heat indices in the 100-108 degree range over many areas.
S to SE winds 5 to 14 KTS will prevail with the higher sustained winds and gusts to 22 KTS during the afternoon and evening hours. Morning soundings, upper air analysis, and water vapor all show the subtropical ridge planted over the Lone Star State. Southeasterly winds continue to bring in a bit of moisture at the surface, but the high pressure is drying out the mid and upper levels. The ridge will continue to be the controlling factor in our weather leading to hot and sunny days with partly cloudy and mild nights.
Will keep smaller chances going also south of the boundary, but not all that confident we will see any precip south until the cold front moves across overnight. For Thursday night, a cold front will continue to drop across western Kansas with increasing chances for thunderstorms. South winds will shift to the north and northeast at 10 to 20 mph with the cold front.
Aviation weather across much of North and Central TX is expected to remain quiet over the next 24-30 hours as high pressure builds across the region. Winds through the overnight hours will veer towards the south-southwest as a low level jet develops in response to the potent northern plains trough. slightly better mixing has resulted in dewpoints in the lower 60s. Very little change in temperatures is expected tomorrow as the center of the 500mb ridge will be directly overhead. mainly around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge.
Given the strength of the upper ridge and the increasing cap. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across portions of the area will make for a toasty night.
Large upper level ridge across much of the southern CONUS will continue to be our main weather influence over the next seven day forecast period. 89/GSatterwhite Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
1035 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Currently - Gentle to moderate east sot southeast breezes are being driven by a ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula. This along with nearby ridging has resulted in very little convective activity across the Florida Keys area this evening. Short Term Update - Surface ridging will remain to our north, keeping gentle east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys overnight. Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail across Florida Keys waters through the overnight period due to ridging across the Florida Peninsula.
Dewpoints stay near the lower 70s tomorrow, especially in east central Kansas farthest out ahead of a frontal boundary moving into north central Kansas by late afternoon. Heat indicies in this area with the highest dewpoints range between 105-108 degrees. An upper level trough will move across western Ontario and Great Lake region Thursday night. This will flatten the upper ridge and suppress the upper high southward across the Southern Plains.
1220 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure will build off the coast tonight, allowing southerly flow to develop.
88 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
Models try to sneak some moisture up into Southeast Michigan Thursday in the southeast flow around the periphery of the high over the east coast.
Skies should clear by around midnight over most of the area and temperatures fall into the lower 80s. Models still keep the mid level circulation over land for 24-30 at least but still might try to eek the low levels out over the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche for a few hours. Upper ridge over TX has been holding strong of late and at times stronger than model progs. An isolated shower is possible along a weak land breeze early Thursday morning (possibly near Galveston) and again along the sea breeze in the afternoon, but subsidence from upper ridging over Texas will keep coverage too limited to include any mention in the TAFs attm. /ISSUED / The high pressure ridge over the area will slowly drift northward for the next several days.
629 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Broad area of high pressure is in place across the region at 19Z with a cold front moving into the western Dakotas. The cold front will move southeast tonight and reach northeast Nebraska by Thursday morning and far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late Thursday afternoon.
Model soundings are showing similar conditions again for Thursday, with possibly slightly cooler conditions aloft, and numerous garden variety showers and storms are expected.
High resolution models still show additional development expanding southward through the evening, due to the low level jet. A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late afternoon and evening hours. Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on Thursday. Upper ridging will build into the Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.
934 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 A warm front will lift north across the area overnight.
800 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure over the area will result in continued dry conditions tonight.
A weak upper level ridge will move across the area tonight then shift east of the Cascades on Thursday.
Upper trough energy approaching from the west will bring another, more widespread, round of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area early tomorrow morning. Behind the trough axis, dry conditions will round out the remainder of the short term period. Sunday will be near seasonal values with regard to temperatures, but upper level high pressure will begin to build back in across the region Monday, bringing well above normal temperatures back to the state.
Storms will come to an end with the departure of the trof and the loss of daytime heating.
Today, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will continue the light flow and afternoon diurnally driven convection over South Florida. The highest concentration afternoon, diurnally driven, thunderstorms will be over the interior.
Characterized by weak ridging aloft and a stagnant surface pattern, temperatures should hover in the middle to upper 80s all week, with possibly a few 90 degree readings mixed in by mid- to-late week. Dew points should remain in the low to middle 60s throughout the week, providing us with several very comfortable days to look forward to.
322 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A poorly defined slow moving cold front will move east across the area today. High pressure will build in tonight and Monday.
High pressure ridging into the area from the north will weaken today. An approaching cold front will move into the area Monday. The development of a weak upper level low will keep the chance for convection across the area through much of week. An upper level trough crossing the Mississippi River Valley will continue moving east into the Ohio River Valley and Tennessee Valley tonight. The chance for convection will also increase across the western Midlands and CSRA late in the day as a cold front approaches from the west and weak short wave energy moves into the region. The chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase overnight as a weak cold front approaches from the west. An upper level trough and its associated weak cold front will cross the area Monday.
a slightly drier and cooler airmass will filter into the region. but a few degrees cooler than last week. in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, so at least it should feel a bit cooler.
Low temperatures so far have only cooled into the low/mid 70s. On a wider view, the clouds were primarily near a cold frontal boundary extending from the eastern Great Lakes, to western Tennessee and west Texas. The water vapor view indicated a fast zonal flow moving ashore the west coast between 40/50 north, with a trough feature over the central Plains advancing eastward. The advancing upper trough will help drag the cold front across our area today. With extensive clouds in place, high temperatures this afternoon should only rise into the low/mid 80s. Dry weather returns for the last few days of the summer season, as high pressure over the US/Canadian border slides to the ESE. Despite the passage of the cold front, late summer heat will only abate somewhat on Monday with highs in the mid/upper 80s.
601 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight.
High pressure will rebuild quickly across the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians Monday and remain over the area through the end of the week.
310 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure was over much of the Northland early this morning which has led to mostly clear skies, light winds and areas of fog. Continued warm air advection today will lead to a warmer day with highs in the seventies for most areas but also will cause clouds to increase. The southerly wind will keep temperatures cooler along the North Shore. The chance for showers and storms will then increase over the rest of the Northland this evening as the cold front moves into central to eastern Minnesota by 06Z. Another in a series of long wave trofs will dig into the western U. With the falling heights, low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies.
Two trough passages bring unsettled weather for the new work week. The mostly sunny warming trend continues on Monday with clouds invading from the SW in the afternoon and overnight as a trough approaches the southern California coast.
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure will retreat from off the New England coast today.
Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with lower 70s west to middle and upper 70s elsewhere. The jet stream buckles and shifts north Monday allowing for ridging and rising heights to build across the forecast area. Afternoon highs will remain in the lower to middle 70s, which is about normal for this time of year.
411 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight.
and upper level ridging will again be expanding to the west of the state. Expect warming conditions as the influence of this upper ridge expand east into AR by Late on Mon.
248 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure aloft will bring hot mostly dry weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and again on Monday.
505 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A weak cold front will move slowly southeast into the region today.
1237 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Low pressure over eastern Lake Superior has continued to produce clouds and scattered showers. This low pressure system should move far enough east tonight to allow a ridge to build in, bringing the showers to an end and clearing skies overnight. Upstream in Canada there were some upper 30s under this ridge, and would not be surprised if some of our cold spots got that cold as well. The warm front moving in will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon in the far northwest from around KINL towards KBJI.
427 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A cold front moves slowly across the area today. High pressure for the work week. but I did slow down the PoP as upper trough and then the accompanying cold front come through today and tonight. Cold front will lag behind the upper trough and not pass until late tonight or early Monday morning. The low level moisture will remain overnight and low temperatures will still be in the low to mid 60s. Axis of 500 hPa trough will pass central WV around 15z Monday morning. has slowed the eastward progression of low level moisture in the wake of the trough. minor adjustments have been made to Sky and PoP forecast for the Monday morning hours over central WV and the higher terrain.
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A cold front will approach from the west this morning then stall over the area through Monday.
135 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front. Upper level ridging over the southeastern states will retreat to the southwest as a trough moves into the Mississippi River Valley. The models show h5 troughing moving into the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with the trough over the region Monday. There should be increased instability Sunday night and Monday associated with the upper trough. Previous runs of the GFS have displayed upper ridging more dominate.
324 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Models show a weak upper level trof moving across the PAH forecast area this afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the 60 to 65 degree range.
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight.
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 06Z surface data indicates high pressure running from the western Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk issued for portions of the area next 24 hours but at best this event would be isolated and strengths of severe phenomena of gusty winds and possibly small hail to be on the lower end. Lows by morning should be in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.
Upper level ridge will hold over the region through the period.