Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
730 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2016 A deepening trough of low pressure will bring night through morning low clouds and fog west of the mountains, along with below normal temperatures for many places through midweek. A warming trend and shrinking marine layer is then expected for the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure builds aloft.
An upper low over Washington will continue to send some clouds and perhaps even a few sprinkles into northern sections of the CWA this evening, then primarily west of the Cascades and north of the Umpqua Divide overnight into Tuesday morning. A thermal trough will develop along the coast this evening and then strengthen through mid week.
The slow general warming trend will continue tomorrow as the winds become more southerly behind the departing ridge, bringing the highs up to the upper 80s in the southern half of the state. A broad mid to upper level ridge over the southeastern U.
with the trough axis sitting across central Kentucky, best coverage of showers and storms may be across areas that did not see the shower activity today. At midweek, the region is expected to be under the influence of a east to west oriented ridge centered to the West of Bermuda with a general area of ridging extending southwest to the Southern Plains. At least one weakness is expected in the ridge at that time, over the norther Gulf of Mexico. Also at that time, a closed low is expected to be moving across the Northern Rockies with an associated trough moving across the Western CONUS. The weakness is expected to move to near the MS Delta Region by Thu evening with the ridge center remaining in place to the east of the area with a second ridge center over the Southern Plains.
A cause is an area of mainly upper level low pressure from the west coast of Florida to the Bahamas. The GFS, its ensembles and the ECMWF do hint that the main upper low or moisture maxima will move to the NW across the western portion of the region during the early weekend. RSB For 00Z TAFs: A sfc boundary south of the cwa and a 8h upper low over srn AL will keep the chc of shra/tsra at the taf sites thru arnd 02z before tapering off later this evening. By Tuesday aftn more sct shra/tsra will be possible due to daytime heating, an old cdfnt and an upper low over the region.
/Tonight through Monday/ Return flow sets up aloft as an area of high pressure shifts to the east tonight with waa overnight.
728 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Strong high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. The summer heat is expected to continue during the medium range as the upper level ridge continues to expand northward.
802 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 A broad area of low pressure over AL/GA will drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. Circulation around a broad area of low pressure over GA/AL bringing a moist flow from the Atlantic into the area. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus development late tonight. Upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico east across Florida will slowly retrograde during the period.
Upper low center over north-central Oregon this evening will be slow to move eastward overnight. Shower and thunderstorm development ahead of the low center will push through east-central Oregon (Baker county) overnight, advancing into the west-central ID mountains Tuesday morning.
/issued 1035 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows high pressure centered east of the ArkLaTex this evening. with a disturbance moving around the periphery of this ridge. which coincides with the high resolution models that suggest that this activity will weaken through midnight.
Upper level high pressure is centered over west Texas. with an upper level trough of low pressure stretching from Washington state south into California. Colorado lies under the northern edge of the ridge.
1134 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will cross the area tonight into Tuesday, then move east Tuesday night.
Moisture levels have come up a little bit today, and with the upper high weakened, MLCAPES are running around 1000 J/kg west to 2000 J/kg east. Upper high still maintains control over region, but monsoonal sub tropical moisture tap may enhance rain chances especially late in week.
954 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 An area of low pressure over southern AL drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. Circulation around a broad area of low pressure over southern AL will continue a moist southeast flow from the Atlantic into the area overnight. Several models indicate weak short wave energy circulating around an upper low off the southeast coast crossing the Lowcountry into the eastern Midlands around sunrise. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus development late tonight. Upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico east across Florida will slowly retrograde during the period.
upper low moving across the Pacific northwest. Satellite showing a short wave rotating around the low this evening. For Tuesday the upper low will be directly over the region with fairly cold air aloft. Based on track of the low best chances for precipitation will be northeast Oregon. By Wed the low has moved out of the area with a drier northwest flow aloft. Skies will be mostly sunny with warmer temps.
/issued 223 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016/ The effects of a trough moving into the western U. are already being felt on a ridge of high pressure as more storms are forming this afternoon.
Low pressure over southeast GA evident on satellite images. The low should drift slowly westward during the period but we will remain in a tropical airmass. Broad low pressure system will stall west of the CWA through the week, with tropical airmass keeping anomalously high moisture over the area.
This will be changing over the next 24 hours as our focus then turns to the broad, upper level low and attendant surface feature over southern GA/northern FL. As we near the end of the week, extended models are indicating the approach of a cold front from the north.
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Water vapor imagery shows high pressure centered east of the ArkLaTex this evening. with a disturbance moving around the periphery of this ridge. which coincides with the high resolution models that suggest that this activity will weaken through midnight.
The upper level ridge will strengthen across the region through the day tomorrow as a high amplitude trough moves more fully into the western United States.
The CWA is currently situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, with southerly flow bringing in more moisture and warmer air.
Expect widely scattered thunderstorms to move east off the higher terrain into western Nebraska this evening. Hot and humid conditions will return Tuesday as H850MB temperatures increase as the upper level ridge builds overhead.
Clear skies within the lowest 5k ft through at least mid morning. Low amplitude upper ridge continues to build over the Great Lakes with the ridge axis set to cross the region later this evening. In addition, a deeper mid/upper level low tracking through central Canada will fold the amplified thermal ridge along Western Plains over into the region by Tuesday night.
In addition, the lower Ohio Valley will sit on the western edge of the upper level ridge. With the high moisture content and weak flow aloft, the main concern will be very heavy downpours tomorrow. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight than they have been the last couple of nights.
Don't want to remove pops completely due to the upper low and other sfc boundaries hanging arnd. (Issued 624 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016) For 00Z TAFs: A sfc boundary south of the cwa and a 8h upper low over srn AL will keep the chc of shra/tsra at the taf sites thru arnd 02z before tapering off later this evening. By Tuesday aftn more sct shra/tsra will be possible due to daytime heating, an old cdfnt and an upper low over the region. A cause is an area of mainly upper level low pressure from the west coast of Florida to the Bahamas. The GFS, its ensembles and the ECMWF do hint that the main upper low or moisture maxima will move to the NW across the western portion of the region during the early weekend.
First, the lower stratus and stratocumulus this afternoon could lead to some fog tonight. Tuesday should remain dry and with a ridge across the area, temperatures should be warmer than today. The ridge moves to the east Tuesday night and there is another weak upper level wave that brings a small chance for thunderstorms to the far south again.
Temperatures will be a little warmer in response to increased sunshine. Cooler temperatures will reflect the increased clouds/chance of precipitation. A low pressure trough that has been relatively stationary along the west coast will begin to shift east and de-amplify Wed night and Thu. The trough will shift into the high plains on Fri as high pressure develops off and along the west coast.
Will have enough residual moisture to ensure a few afternoon and evening storms but most of the storms should stay over the higher trrn with only ISOLD cells possible for the Plains by late afternoon into the evening.
Models continuing to nudge the slightly higher PWs in from the east (via the persistent low pressure system lingering over the far NE Gulf). the seabreeze (and/or other leftover sfc boundaries) should help to keep 20-30% POPS in the forecast for the rest of the week (with the higher numbers over the eastern portions of the area).
Tuesday, will keep slight chance of showers/thunder through the day as remnant activity from overnight may linger, especially with the strengthening western trough and 500mb ridge continuing its slide eastward.
The pressure gradient has been increasing through the day with the eastward movement of the high and a trough of low pressure /cold front/ moving into the Dakotas in association with a low pressure area moving east through southern Canada.
With H9 to H7 thermal layer for Tuesday prog to be nearly identical to slightly warmer than today.
1015 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will bring clear weather to the area tonight with temperatures falling into the 50s.
Rain chances will continue through the period as an upper level low pressure system along the Florida coast begins to wrap mid-level moisture over the ArkLaMiss. The best chances for precip will be along and east of Interstate 55 where there will be the best support from the upper low.
Farther west, numerous showers and storms are moving slowly east across the High Plains of Kansas/ Oklahoma and Texas. 5-2") and unstable in some locations with the highest potential instability (MUCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) in central and north central Oklahoma. Generally, kept the highest rain chances this evening where latest radar echoes are occuring, then kept the highest rain chances 30-40% after midnight in northwestern Oklahoma as well as near the Red River where a few lingering weak MCVs from earlier convection may trigger additional storms.
Thermal profiles continue to warm on Tuesday, and it looks like a hot and humid day as afternoon dew points climb into the lower 70s.
/issued 250 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016/ Remnant cloud cover from and upper level weakness on the back side of an upper level ridge has resulted in much cooler temperatures across the eastern half of our Four State Region today.
Little or no change in conditions across south central Texas, as a col in the upper level pattern leaves ridging in place and generally light winds at all levels. Look for Tuesday to be warmer than today by 1-2F.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 74 90 / 30 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 73 92 / 20 40 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 74 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 89 69 89 / 20 30 10 30.
Warmer weather will return later in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the district.
Don't want to remove pops completely due to the upper low and other sfc boundaries hanging arnd. By Tuesday aftn the chc of shra/tsra will increase due to the upper low over the sern US, old boundaries arnd the area, and daytime heating.
5-2") and unstable in some locations with the highest potential instability (MUCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) in central and north central Oklahoma. Generally, kept the highest rain chances this evening where latest radar echoes are occuring, then kept the highest rain chances 30-40% after midnight in northwestern Oklahoma as well as near the Red River where a few lingering weak MCVs from earlier convection may trigger additional storms.
In the meantime, drier air aloft, on the west side of an upper level low, resides across much our region and has brought an end to most of our afternoon rain showers.
A broad trough remains over the west coast the next couple of days.
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front moves through the region overnight.
1021 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Latest sfc analysis shows 1020mb high pressure anchored off the se coast, inland troughing over the NC western piedmont, and weak frontal boundary well N/NW of the area. Models indicate subtle shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections in afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture.
/Issued 336 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge beginning to amplify over the four corners region resulting in increased 500mb northwesterly flow over the TX/OK Panhandles. dew points are in the low to mid 60s. but with highs only in the low to mid 90s the spreads won't be as high as the last few days. The forecast for the next few days is very similar to today as subtle waves continue to round the base of the high pressure to our west and move in on northwesterly flow aloft.
755 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes region and produce fair weather through Tuesday.
1247 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Dry and less humid tonight through mid-week as high pressure builds in. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s, with Tuesday's highs expected to reach the 80s.
724 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
707 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Cold front moves into the region and stalls tonight. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening.
An upper level ridge over the Great Basin will result in continued hot conditions across the area.
725 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated afternoon convection generally waning early this evening across the forecast area as the upper ridge remains strong overhead. High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no airmass exchange for the next several days. At this time it appears most of the energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and Sun.
An upper level trough over the north and northwest gulf will push tropical moisture north across all taf sites through Tuesday night.
850 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening. Temperatures will be quicker to drop across northern portions of the forecast area overnight as cooler and drier air begins to work into the region. Due to this heat index values will be lower as well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.
527 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Then an upper ridge moves over the region, with warmer and drier weather expected for the weekend.
854 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Convective coverage was hard to come by this afternoon and evening as a relatively stable low/mid level environment on the backside of a mid and upper level low overcame any moisture increase that took place today.
625 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 TS dotting the forecast area early this evening, but coverage is decreasing as sun is getting lower and as cooler outlow air increases in coverage. /issued 257 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ The upper level high pressure dome which has largely suppressed most sensible weather (other than the heat) has moved far enough west to enable some changes for us in West Texas. The western extension of the mid-level ridge remains across the desert southwest through the week as a deepening trough slowly displaces the Bermuda High along the eastern seaboard.
737 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late today and tonight. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. to the lower 70s across the SE zones. Tuesday looks very warm to hot but with much cooler dewpoints as compared to today. Highs will range from the low/mid 80s over the NW to the low/mid 90s over the SE. The upper ridge across the Southern U. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border.
Synoptic setup: a large high pressure heat doe continue to be stationed over the western half of the conus with its center positioned over the Nevada/Utah border. Tonight and Tuesday: Ridge across the area earlier today has toppled and allowed weak southwest flow to enter the area.
Thunderstorms near the Highway 95 / Interstate 40 junction were the strongest with one gauge measuring about an inch and a half of rain in under an hour.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend through mid-week with triple digit temperatures across portions of the interior. Low clouds over the coastal waters were much more expansive this morning on the heals of a departing weak upper trough. Temperatures along the Pacific Coast are running in the lower to mid 60s with the coolest readings in the cloudier areas. High pressure aloft will continue to gradually build over the desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many interior locations exceeding 100 degrees.
As a result, the only main update this evening was to increase pops into the higher chance category and extend them a bit further east. This time though the low level moisture and instability factors will be higher. temps will be a bit cooler for Tuesday.
/issued 625 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ TS dotting the forecast area early this evening, but coverage is decreasing as sun is getting lower and as cooler outflow air increases in coverage. /issued 257 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ The upper level high pressure dome which has largely suppressed most sensible weather (other than the heat) has moved far enough west to enable some changes for us in West Texas. The western extension of the mid-level ridge remains across the desert southwest through the week as a deepening trough slowly displaces the Bermuda High along the eastern seaboard.
A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. These conditions will persist over the region for most of this week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the area.
North and Central Texas is sandwiched between an upper level ridge over the Four Corners area and another upper level ridge over the southeastern United States. /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ A large swath of deep Gulf moisture has invaded North and Central Texas today in response to a slow-moving inverted trough which has finally worked its way in from the east. This is all occurring as an upper level ridge which brought the triple digit heat over the weekend retrogrades westward into the 4-corners region. One concern with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding due to the high moisture environment in place and slow southwest cell motion.
1057 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure centered over the Four Corners will gradually move west toward the Great Basin over the next few days.
705 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
During the day Tuesday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the higher coverage across our southern and southeastern counties. Copious cloud cover and increased rainfall chances will keep afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s over the southern half of the CWA and in the mid 90s over the Big Country.
853 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure will be East/Southeast of the region this night. Ridge of high pressure will be East/Southeast of area waters Tonight.
715 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. After an unusually quiet day in regards to the lack of convection, another warm and humid night is on tap under deep layered ridging. A persistent weather pattern is in place as strong Atlantic mid/upper-level ridging extends across the Southeast and a weak trough remains far inland.
1050 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 A pacific low pressure trough with an area of enhanced mid level winds will pass over the area through the evening. A cold front will come south later tonight and end up along the continental divide by early morning. Tuesday Through Monday a series of cold fronts will move south each night through the week enhancing the low level moisture up along the continental divide. A pacific low pressure trough with an area of enhanced mid level winds will pass over the area through the evening. A cold front will come south later tonight and end up along the continental divide by early morning.
1059 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front moves through the region overnight.
with the higher coverage likely to remain just west of the forecast area. Overnight lows are generally in line given the high dewpoints in place.
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s expected. High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no airmass exchange for the next several days. At this time it appears most of the energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and Sun.
As this feature recedes west, the subtropical ridge is regaining real estate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
736 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
629 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 201 PM CDT High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather through Tuesday. Expect lows in the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s south, with around 70 in the immediate Chicago metro. Southern areas will likely see a slower cool down as dewpoints have hung on in the lower 70s, but should fall into the mid 60s tonight. The center of the high shifts east tomorrow but winds will continue to be light.
807 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late today and tonight. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. to the lower 70s across the SE zones. Highs will range from the low/mid 80s over the NW to the low/mid 90s over the SE. The upper ridge across the Southern U. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border.
18Z surface data has high pressure across the upper Midwest and Plains with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and through Tuesday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.