Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge centered over Arkansas will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. A weak upper level low off the upper Texas coast will remain far enough east to have little effect on our weather. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Latest indications continue to show the low pressure system off the Texas coast will track north into Texas, but remain well east of the area.
Fog is once again beginning to develop beneath a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains early this morning. Under mostly clear skies, lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
Another night of tranquil weather is expected across the TN Valley, as the region remains under the dominant influence of a strong mid- level ridge centered across the Ozarks/mid-South regions. Isolated- widely scattered showers which developed earlier today along a cold front pushing southward across KY will continue to dissipate as the boundary layer stabilizes, and we will maintain a dry/clear forecast for the overnight period. Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through the short term period as H5 high pressure centers over the lower Ozark/MS River Valley. Given that the upper high/ridging pattern will continue sliding east over the next several days in combination with relatively dry air, see no reason to think that high temps near or reaching 100 degrees are out of the question, especially on Tuesday.
Moisture remains in place across much northern Arizona this evening as a low pressure system moves into the Great Basin.
/Issued 745 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ Mid level ridge was centered over the region this evening. Upper high pressure ridge will remain in control which will result in afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across most of the forecast area.
1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Adjusted pops across the far east tonight with a short wave trough lifting across this region with some showers/storms expected.
1012 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Isolated/scattered showers wrapping cyclonically around mid/upper low and associated elongated SFC trof over the NW Gulf continue to spread across the coastal waters, with one broken band recently pushing into coastal Jefferson/Cameron. As the low approaches the coast tomorrow, expect widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to move into the coastal waters during the early morning and then steadily inland through the day. Guidance has been consistent in keeping the highest QPF values southwest of the area down towards Galveston. Widespread rain will continue through Wednesday as the low moves inland across southeast Texas and becomes quasi-stationary.
There are only so many ways to discuss the high pressure that has settled over the southeast.
212 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A weak trough will drop south across the area today and tonight with a few clouds and widely scattered sprinkles.
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A remarkably long quiet pattern starts today as dry high pressure overtakes the region.
522 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Current surface map places low across eastern Montana with trof extending into eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. Deep mixing will result in gusty west-southwest winds behind the surface trof.
750 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Quiet weather continues for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates over the North Country through to the weekend. A great stretch of late summer/early fall weather continues as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather across most of the Northeastern US.
310 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Moisture will continue to be drawn north ahead of a 500 mb trough moving through the Great Basin this morning. About Noon the Pacific trough will be over northwest Colorado and precipitation areas associated directly with it will phase with the precipitation over CO. The active pattern with progressive moderately strong troughs passing through ever few days will continue the rest of this week and through the weekend. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry with increasing southwest flow aloft and the next trough strengthens over the Pacific Northwest.
552 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A remarkably long quiet pattern starts today as dry high pressure overtakes the region.
410 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Long-anticipated trough beginning to sweep across the intermountain west this morning, with the center of the trough currently roughly in far SW ID. Rain will begin to overspread western WY later this morning as the trough sweeps east. Still expecting the trough to very quickly pivot NEWD into SE MT late this afternoon, with precipitation quickly ending SW to NE through the afternoon. Winds will also be an issue this afternoon behind the trough. Much cooler conditions can be expected tonight, with good radiational cooling allowing temps to drop into the 30s and 40s under clear skies.
Upper ridge axis this morning continues to edge eastward into the Midwest region. Mid level moisture return continues today as several embedded perturbations are noted lifting towards the western high plains ahead of the mid level trough axis in Oregon. Despite the decent low level mixing and gusty south winds this afternoon, cirrus clouds should once again temper highs a few degrees to the low 90s. A secondary upper trough is progged to cross the Pacific Northwest coast this evening, shifting the first upper wave into the northern plains.
Dry weather pattern continues through midweek with high pressure remaining firmly in control to the west of Humberto. A building upper level ridge with above normal heights signals a rebound in temperatures to above normal levels by this weekend. Consensus medium range deterministic models and ensemble guidance generally agree to keep the weekend rain-free as cold front approaches from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies over the upper midwest, bringing increasingly dry air to the region. Temperature are likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the western-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the eastern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. Areas of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected early this morning with low level moisture behind an exiting cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR later this morning, and continue through the rest of the TAF period, under building high pressure and dry advection. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
1024 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A cold front to our south will push into the southeastern U. through tonight as Canadian high pressure builds to our north. This high will dominate over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region for the balance of the work week, promoting dry conditions and cooler temperatures. The high will settle to our south this weekend. Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front across southern VA as northeasterly breezes and cloudy skies dominate across the CWA. Temperatures overnight will be much cooler than previous days, dropping into the low to middle 50s to near 60 degrees in the city centers. High pressure will remain in control through the period. Dry conditions with light northeast winds, becoming more variable as the high pressure settles overhead.
645 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Areas of fog will lift early, although low clouds may linger well into the day as a high pressure area to the north keeps a northeast flow over the forecast area. The cooler northeast flow should allow temperatures to be a little cooler today than yesterday with highs around 80. Low level post frontal moisture has allowed fog to develop and expand over Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana early this morning as a high pressure area to the north keeps a northeast flow over the forecast area. The cooler northeast flow should allow temperatures to be a little cooler today than yesterday with highs only around 80.
553 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Long-anticipated trough beginning to sweep across the intermountain west this morning, with the center of the trough currently roughly in far SW ID. Rain will begin to overspread western WY later this morning as the trough sweeps east. Still expecting the trough to very quickly pivot NEWD into SE MT late this afternoon, with precipitation quickly ending SW to NE through the afternoon. Winds will also be an issue this afternoon behind the trough. Much cooler conditions can be expected tonight, with good radiational cooling allowing temps to drop into the 30s and 40s under clear skies.
Latest water vapor imagery reveals negative tilt upper trough moving into western Idaho as mid level moisture continues to feed northeast through AZ/NM. The best dynamics associated with the parent trough will stay well north of the Panhandles and toward the northern Plains. Temperatures should once again be very similar to yesterday, although the increased moisture profiles suggest cloud cover may be a bit higher which could keep temperatures a degree or two cooler.
435 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Dry conditions with warmer temperatures expected today. 24-hour mid-level height comparisons show rises in upwards of 12 dm which offers warmer temperatures today. While only a few degrees warmer than yesterday, much of the day should be mostly sunny with high clouds arriving late.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies over the upper midwest, bringing increasingly dry air to the region. Temperature are likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the western-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the eastern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. Areas of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected early this morning with low level moisture behind an exiting cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning, and continue through the rest of the TAF period, under building high pressure and dry advection. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
/issued 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge centered over Arkansas will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. A weak upper level low off the upper Texas coast will remain far enough east to have little effect on our weather. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Latest indications continue to show the low pressure system off the Texas coast will track north into Texas, but remain well east of the area.
Precipitable water values are expected to increase late this afternoon and through the overnight period as the upper level low continues to advect in deep tropical moisture. 55 inches and an upper level low will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms.
747 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A cold front over Virginia will drop south today and tonight.
/issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ CWA remains located between a deep upper trough moving into the Great Basin from the west and high pressure to the east this morning with resultant SW flow over the CWFA. Tomorrow through the weekend a second deep upper trough will move on shore across the PACNW and then traverse through the Great Basin region producing continued SW flow aloft.
Dry and warm Weds as the upper flow increases out of the sw ahead of the next upper trough that will drop along the west coast by late in the day.
554 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A weak trough will drop south across the area today and tonight with a few clouds and widely scattered sprinkles.
Well organized equivalent potential temperature advection in the lowest 4. Sensible wx through the end of the week will be defined by the evolution of the upstream longwave ridge the axis of which extends from Lake Superior south into the Lower MS River Valley at press time.
Surface analysis early this morning places a weak back door cold front stretching from North Central/East Central Missouri east into Kentucky. GOES-16 Satellite trends show Hurricane Humberto 570 miles west of Bermuda, an upper level trough along the West Coast, an upper level ridge over portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, the Southeast United States, and a tropical disturbance just off the Texas Coast. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions suggest the aforementioned weak back door cold front dropping into the Mid-South later this afternoon into tonight.
525 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Another hot day is on tap for the area as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
Then temperatures will warm back into the 70s on Wednesday as another low pressure system bears down on the Silver State.
Thanks to high pressure, pleasant conditions with normal to above normal temperatures are expected to continue for today into Wednesday. Southerly winds will help us stay on the warmer side as well as keep our daytime dewpoints in the 60s.
842 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A remarkably long quiet pattern starts today as dry high pressure overtakes the region.
/issued 343 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ N-NW flow will prevail aloft as South Florida is located between upper ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico and residual troughing in the wake of Hurricane Humberto over the western Atlantic.
437 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection associated with an upper level low continues to remain over the waters; however, expect some scattered to isolated activity to develop inland today.
Beach goers should avoid getting in the water despite temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across the area this afternoon.
632 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A backdoor cold front will move south across central NC this afternoon and evening.
Another hot and mainly sunny day is underway with highs expected to reach the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s Plateau.
Models push this upper trough/closed low east-northeastward today as it weakens somewhat. The tailing weak trough moves across the CWA by late afternoon. In the low levels, the wind fields have downsloping winds progged for the CWA today into early evening. Thickness fields show a weak cold front to move across the area sometime this evening.
High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will keep central Indiana warm and dry until this weekend. Rain chances will increase over the weekend as a cold front approaches.
High pressure in place will ensure winds remain calm to light, with light easterly flow leading to generally variable wind direction overnight. * None Sensible wx through the end of the week will be defined by the evolution of the upstream longwave ridge the axis of which extends from Lake Superior south into the Lower MS River Valley at press time.
137 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 An upper-level ridge that has been created in part by Humberto and a tropical wave in the Western Gulf will be replaced by a positively tilted upper-level trough axis as it dives southward. This trough will serve to filter "cooler" and drier air into the area beginning late tomorrow night. Complements of diurnal heating, lack of rain, and fewer clouds, temps are expected to reach the low-to-mid 90s for almost everywhere except the immediate coast between now and roughly 5PM.
Because of these trends, I lowered PoPs through the afternoon and evening hours over the higher terrain. Overnight, high pressure will begin to build down the eastern seaboard, similar to a cold air damming setup you would see in the winter. As mentioned, will maintain some slight chance PoPs through the overnight hours and into tomorrow as guidance indicates a chance for some isolated showers to develop in the higher terrain overnight and into the valley areas during the day tomorrow. Speaking of temperatures, it should be a few degrees cooler tomorrow versus today. H5 high pressure will be entrenched over the area as the period begins, while it will work together with Hurricane Humberto offshore to bring a back door front into the area during Wednesday thanks to northerly flow along the coastal states.
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions with comfortable humidity across the area.
High pressure across the area will keep winds from the northeast. The cooler northeast flow will keep temperatures a little cooler today than yesterday with highs around 80. Low level post frontal moisture has allowed fog to develop and expand over Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana early this morning as a high pressure area to the north keeps a northeast flow over the forecast area. The cooler northeast flow should allow temperatures to be a little cooler today than yesterday with highs only around 80.
Precipitable water values are expected to increase late this afternoon and through the overnight period as the upper level low continues to advect in deep tropical moisture.
Tomorrow, the ridge that has been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to the East and thicknesses will fall slightly.
/issued 1146 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ Cumulus field continues to develop and expand northward late this morning as the area of low pressure along the upper Texas coast slowly drifts inland.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 359 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will remain in place across the area tonight with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s beneath partly cloudy skies.
The upper level trough over northern Utah this morning will exit the area early this afternoon. Much cooler temperatures today will be followed by a brief warmup midweek ahead of the next storm system arriving late in the week. The upper trough that brought showers/thunderstorms to much of northern Utah overnight will exit into Wyoming shortly. Weak convection embedded in the mid-level cold pool associated with the upper trough will persist into early afternoon, with clearing skies and cooler temperatures through the balance of the afternoon and evening. The next upper trough drifting south along the British Columbia coast will settle into the Pacific Northwest late tonight/early Wednesday.
1011 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Long-anticipated trough beginning to sweep across the intermountain west this morning, with the center of the trough currently roughly in far SW ID. Rain will begin to overspread western WY later this morning as the trough sweeps east. Still expecting the trough to very quickly pivot NEWD into SE MT late this afternoon, with precipitation quickly ending SW to NE through the afternoon. Winds will also be an issue this afternoon behind the trough. Much cooler conditions can be expected tonight, with good radiational cooling allowing temps to drop into the 30s and 40s under clear skies.
The dry weather pattern continues through midweek with high pressure remaining firmly in control to the west of Humberto.
213 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A cold front has moved through much of Northeast Montana with winds turning around to the northwest. The upper trough moves to the east late tonight.
343 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 For tonight, a similar setup to yesterday is expected with a cold front moving east across North Dakota. With the southern end of the upper-level trough lingering throughout the day near the international border, some rain showers may be possible in that area during the afternoon. Highs will be slightly cooler in the 70s area-wide. With winds and cloud cover expected to subside behind the front, temperatures will be cooler but still above normal for Wednesday night. Sat - Tue Long wave trough over the western US will shift to eastern North America by the end of the period. Low amplitude long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts. Upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will move across the region Sat.
Highs Wednesday will again be in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight 65 to 70.
Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler today. Next upper level low pressure system is just off the Pacific Northwest coast with a large area of showers across Western Oregon/Washington this morning. The Magic Valley will remain dry until Wednesday evening when the upper level low moves over the Pacific Northwest.
The much above temperatures that were associated with a strong h500 ridge over the central and northern plains will be coming to an end. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Cold front has passed through our area last night with a weakening low currently over the Island Park/Yellowstone area. Weak high pressure builds briefly late this afternoon into early evening ahead of the next, slightly stronger system.
Winds will then back off even more as a cold front moves in from the northwest after midnight. The current forecast has a range from 80 near Ord to the low 90s in northern Kansas, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see an even larger spread in temperatures across the area.
Model guidance shows a ridge over the eastern half of the U. and a trough over the western U.
231 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The rest of this week will bring continued warmer than normal temperatures with little or no rainfall.
241 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Southerly winds have been very gusty this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper trough will roll into ND on Wednesday. Cooler temps are expected behind the fropa tonight and Wednesday with highs only in the upper 70s, though this is still a few degrees above average.
Trended toward the warmer MAV guidance for highs on Wednesday. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday An upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes will keep very warm weather across the region through the end of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the week goes on as the ridge moves slowly east and the upper flow becomes more southwesterly.
Satellite trends and latest models both indicate subsidence being more prominent today from the lower Coastal Bend into the Brush Country.
High pressure currently remains in control, but some changes on the way later in the week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances.
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 With Hurricane Humberto to the east and an area of high pressure over the eastern Gulf, the area has seen a northwesterly flow. This has led to a quiet day weather wise across South Florida, with some relief to the high humidity. By the beginning of the weekend, Humberto should move far enough away to allow high pressure to build in to the north, bringing an easterly flow to the area, which would advect moisture into the area, bringing an increase in PoPs for the weekend.
343 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Upper level ridge axis (588 DAM at 500 MB) will continue to be in firm control through the work week (dry conditions), despite folding over and becoming more positive tilted. In Addition, with the ridge axis centered over Central Lower Michigan, some mid clouds (700 MB) also look to sneak in from the east, which also may help limit fog potential.
Dry conditions are forecast with lows falling into the lower 70s.
High pressure stays strong thru the short term, with an H5 centering/ridging across the heart of the FA today.
1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 We are pretty much on track with temperatures early this afternoon with most locations already in the lower 90s.
259 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Cannot rule out a bit of steam fog near the rivers, especially in the northern CWA where temperatures will be a little cooler. However, the lowering dewpoints and a lingering puff of wind should prevent fog from becoming any more widespread.