Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS EAST TO SE WINDS PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EAST TX. THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS OUR COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BELIEVE IT WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSULATION ALONG WITH THE WINDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WELL COURTESY OF VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PRODUCED BY AN 1036 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL PROG FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THAT LOW INTO NW TN. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND IT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. WITH NO ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED.
/ISSUED 345 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/ ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U. WILL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STRETCHING INTO FLORIDA. BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SK. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SD. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. THE FREEZING LINE RIGHT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NEAR FAITH AND THEN SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PCPN OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD IS LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. WINDS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS WARM FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
802 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WHEATLAND COUNTY. FORCING FROM DYNAMIC UPPER TROF IS SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS FROM SHERIDAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WERE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT. MIXED WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM.
1041 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND AREA OF CONCERN. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MATERIALIZES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
1019 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING. MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES AND EAST OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND DOWN TOWARD THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU WHERE RAIN SHADOWING IS TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE.
BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONGIHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING IN THE PARK RANGE SUNDAY MORNING. DYNAMIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING THE LONGWAVE RIDGE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INLAND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
The main threat for light freezing rain, and maybe eventually light freezing drizzle, will be in the deepest valleys of far northwest Arkansas, especially in parts of Carroll, Madison, and Franklin Counties.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.
18Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE COOLER AT MOST SITES.
613 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: BITTER COLD TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN: OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY MORNING. 12Z SFC MAP SHOWED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE -20S OVER MINNESOTA UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES HERE LAST NIGHT DROPPED INTO THE -20S OVER THE INTERIOR COLDER AREAS LAST NIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE ANY WARMER TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR OUT MORE AREAS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
THE DOWNSLOPE AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS GOING FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS WY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THEN MORE BORA LIKE OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
552 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
Isentropic upglide over shallow cool air mass near the ground strengthens tonight ahead of approaching short wave trough. /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ The main concern tonight and into Sunday morning will be the chances of freezing drizzle/freezing rain across portions of far northeast Oklahoma and a good chunk of northwest Arkansas.
FORCING FROM DYNAMIC UPPER TROF IS SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS FROM SHERIDAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WERE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT. MIXED WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM.
701 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 AVIATION THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR COLDEST WEATHER OF THE MONTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA IS FOR THE MOST PART A WARM FRONT TYPE SYSTEM.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS LATE SUNDAY. THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DFW SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE AND 5 KTS OR LESS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND HAVE RE- INTRODUCED HIGH MVFR CIGS AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE THE WINDS GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
543 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 1037 MB Canadian high pressure over IL at mid afternoon will move into the upper Ohio river valley of WV/PA by 12Z/6 am Sunday. Remain concerned that a period of freezing drizzle may occur in the late afternoon/night time hours Sunday as the deeper moisture peels away and ice crystals are lost. Have allowed for a brief period of freezing drizzle on the back edge of the precipitation Sunday night. In any event, current Winter Weather Advisory looks good and can easily be extended if confidence grows in the freezing drizzle threat.
615 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY CAUSING LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING CROSS LAKE FETCH WITH SUBSIDENCE/WAA ALOFT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AND DEW POINTS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE THAT SEA FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 225 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING SWD WHICH IS ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. WITH MINS LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THEN INCHING UPWARD AS WARMER GULF AIR SPREADS EWD.
THE PCPN WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
Temperatures will start off cold today, with pre-sunrise readings in the lower and middle 20s across much of the area.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE TROF WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR UPPER RIDGING TO OCCUR INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S.
WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTH AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND IN WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS. SINCE WE STAY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. THE UP AND DOWN CONTINUES FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH WILL NOT REMAIN CONSOLIDATED. BUT BECOME SPLIT WITH SOME PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN WHILE A PORTION OF THE FORCING SHIFTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS APPROACHING TROF WHICH IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROF WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK QG ASCENT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AM THEN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING TROF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK AS BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WAS CAUSING SOME SLIPPERY SURFACES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICE AT 230 AM. GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY MIDATL/GOMEX RIDGE. HOWEVER TRANSITION TO SIG COLDER TEMPS DYS5-8 AS PRESENT STRONG EPAC SYSTEM OBLITERATES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND PHASES WITH POLAR VORTEX BY TUE.
/ISSUED 434 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ THE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ANCHORED OVER WCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. WITH NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE DRY ADVECTION SPILLING SE INTO THE AREA. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH BANDS OF AC NOTED OVER NW TX BENEATH THE APEX OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS THE COLD AIR FORCES THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW GROWTH ZONE TOWARD THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW. COLD AIR WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
441 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL USHER IN A CHILLY AIRMASS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL MS. THE DEPARTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT ON FRIDAY.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
446 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND REACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS COOL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SALT LAKE BASIN. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH - SOMEWHERE FROM 17:1 TO 20:1 ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE FRIDAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT EASTWARD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND FRI BUT A TAD WARMER FRI DUE TO THE VEERING WINDS. TONIGHT'S LOWS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING FOR A FEW LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE N CWA.
POLAR JET DOMINATED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO KEEP A DRY PATTERN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR BRINGING MOST AREAS TO A LIGHT FREEZE.
525 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY ON FRIDAY AS BRIEF MIDDAY RIDGING PREVAILS.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
437 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RATHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
434 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 THE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ANCHORED OVER WCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. WITH NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE DRY ADVECTION SPILLING SE INTO THE AREA. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH BANDS OF AC NOTED OVER NW TX BENEATH THE APEX OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
A WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE COAST JUST NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SHOW PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TO THE CASCADES.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT E. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND FRI BUT A TAD WARMER FRI DUE TO THE VEERING WINDS. TONIGHT'S LOWS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING FOR A FEW LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE N CWA.
645 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS BL-925MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNUSUALLY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR EASES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH ANOTHER FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIR MASS, TEMPS WILL TUMBLE TO FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR DAY FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXISTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO ATLANTA AND COLUMBUS WHICH MARKS THE DEFINING LINE OF COLDER AIR.
349 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016 A cold front is moving across the region this morning causing snow. Friday, a brief ridge builds over the area causing a break in the snow for most areas.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER C TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTH WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS. WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
548 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 High pressure advancing into Illinois from the west will push the remainder of the low clouds into Indiana shortly after sunrise. A low pressure system approaching Wisconsin today will drag a band of clouds into northern Illinois this afternoon. As the high pressure center edges closer to IL, the pressure gradient will continue to diminish, helping to curtail the wind gusts, which will be a nice change from yesterday's blustery conditions. Broad upper trough covers a large part of the central U.
1050 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT STILL DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY AT THIS TIME BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/TENN VALLEY WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY IN THE BASE OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY BY WED MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM THE GULF BUT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND AS A RESULT.
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES SHOULD STAY MIXED KEEPING THEM IN THE LOWER 40S. A TRANSITION TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF A DAMPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
616 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
438 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.
106 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. 29/05Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PEE DEE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS A LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC WIND PREVAILS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
530 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING IN RESPONSE. LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THAT WILL CHANGE COME WEDNESDAY AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY AND THE WESTERN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BACK INTO THE LOW-MVFR/IFR RANGE.
354 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME SUNSHINE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
436 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Upper pattern has a strong low over the Great Basin this morning that will wobble east today moving on to the Central Plains by Wednesday while the base of the trough extends back toward Baja. This low will continue to move off to east while the trough slowly swings through.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.