Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1035 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours before another very cold and deep trough digs into the West over the weekend. Violin plots seem to indicate any bias correction added to models or guidance is on the warmer side and moved away from this direction and lowered most areas a few degrees today. Saturday will be the nicest day of the forecast with some mixing anticipated ahead of the digging trough. Deterministic med range models continue to be frustratingly out of sync in the upcoming week dealing with this very anomalous cold and deep trough settling across the lower latitudes.
In addition, progged 925 mb temps for this afternoon off the deterministic guidance would suggest highs only in the low 50s. Nevertheless, increased temperatures to the top end of the guidance Saturday when 925 mb temps are even warmer and suggest mid 50s. The dry air and somewhat light winds tonight should send temperatures below freezing in WI, while a gustier flow will keep lows in the upper 30s across most of MN.
208 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Deep NW flow upper trough will dig into the central CONUS this weekend, supporting very cold conditions across a large portion of the country by the end of the weekend. Strong cold front will quickly move through the region Sat, with gusty NW winds expected by afternoon on the plains.
310 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Ridging aloft extending over the state from the Atlantic along with surface ridging from the northeast influence weather over the forecast area.
However, widespread subfreezing temperatures are not expected. The upper low that affected the region yesterday will move into the Mississippi River valley on Saturday. Long wave troughing will dominate over North America with strong ridging into the Gulf of Alaska.
Areas of mostly light rain continues late this morning ahead of a strong upper low over far southwest OK.
Models are suggesting an inverted surface trof with strong moisture transport within the warm conveyor belt. This warmup will be short lived as a weak cold front pushes through the much of the area on Sun night. This front stalls, leaving the SE portions of the CWA warmer on Mon.
109 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb height RAP analysis showed a closed low slowly tracking east-southeast today along the Oklahoma/Texas border. Weak ridging extends across the area overnight while the OK/TX low moves slightly east. A cold front is set to move through during the evening hours and it will be the start of much cooler weather for the area. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs towards the Central Rockies from the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Rain, rain, and more rain will continue into the afternoon hours as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streams northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system. The exception will be areas southeast of Tupelo, Mississippi where temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 60s. /issued 523 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a positive-tilted closed upper low over the TX panhandle. A baroclinic leaf signature appeared to be forming between the upper low and a 150KT upper jet over the mid-MS River valley. For today, the closed upper low will deepen and become neutrally- tilted as it lifts east through the Red River valley.
These strong winds will continue into Saturday morning until winds switch to the northwest following a cold frontal passage. The exact areas that see warmer temperatures and those that remain cool will depend on the exact timing of the aforementioned cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to around 40 and lows Saturday night will range from the low 20s to about 30 degrees.
154 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Overnight and Saturday dry conditions will continue as high pressure and clear skies begin to give way to increasing west winds ahead of the next storm. Saturday afternoon the upper trough and surface cold front will move into southern Wyoming. Scattered snow showers are expected over the lower elevations of NW CO and NE UT.
Strong cold front is approaching from the northwest.
Warmer temperatures and lighter winds are expected today and Saturday.
244 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 It's a crisp fall afternoon across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as a light northerly to northwesterly breeze continues to maintain cold air advection in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Another chilly night is on tap tonight, with lows expected to dip down into the 30s for most of the area, and even some 20s possible across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and across the Marfa Plateau by daybreak Saturday. Locations that look to fall below freezing tonight have already experienced a freeze this season, thus no additional Freeze Warnings are currently warranted.
Decided to bump up temperatures slightly, current thinking is WAA advection ahead of the front will allow for mixing, so trended towards the warmer guidance and raised temperatures a few degrees ahead of the frontal passage.
256 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Stout southerly flow is expected across the plains tonight as a low pressure center moves ast across southern Canada. Have raised winds along the Buffalo Ridge. Saturday will be the only day with above normal temperatures as 925 hpa temperatures warm to 10-12 C ahead of a cold front moving through the area.
Changes are on the way with cold fronts approaching.
1100 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday.
In doing so, the upper low will usher an end to the rain from west to east later this evening into tonight while some wrap around precipitation will possible mainly over Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and northern sections of East Texas through the morning hours. High pressure will build into the region late in the day on Saturday. Lows Saturday night will be in the low 40s near I-30 while ranging to the mid to upper 40s along and south of I-20.
Most of the earlier day precip had shifted south of the area as a upper level low shifted slowly southeast along the Red River Valley.
303 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Cold advection has cutoff for the time being and clouds have cleared, permitting temps to rise into the lower to mid 50s across the area. Still expecting additional light rain to affect portions of central to east Missouri beginning Saturday morning through the late afternoon as an upper low lifts northeast through the region.
Dry weather will last through early Saturday as surface ridging will be in place. By morning, clouds will race back north as the upper low to the south is drawn into the flow, resulting in a negative tilted path of the upper low into Illinois.
Between those two features, increasing mid-level zonal flow across the northern Rockies was promoting falling surface pressures over the High Plains with a weak lee trough noted as of early afternoon over central parts of the Dakotas and NE. That lee trough may dissipate or retrograde west tonight in deference to further pressure falls over the High Plains with light south winds and clear skies supporting overnight lows of 30 to 35. The progression of the Canadian perturbation will contribute to the equatorward advance of a vigorous cold front which will likely stretch from western MN through central NE into northeast CO by Saturday evening. The cold front will advance through the entirety of the area Saturday evening with winds switching to north and increasing to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Dry and warm conditions expected today under high pressure. The advertised cold front will begin moving into the forecast area this evening, bringing a few high terrain showers with it. After temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal today, expect temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler on Saturday.
Temperatures will easily reach the low 70s in the far west, and may be limited to the upper 60s across central Kansas. Saturday night looks similar to Tonight although models are forecasting around a category warmer in the western counties for overnight lows.
323 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Widespread rain will continue to spread into the Mid-South tonight and will continue into Saturday morning as Gulf moisture continues to spread northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system.
533 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Deep NW flow upper trough will dig into the central CONUS this weekend, supporting very cold conditions across a large portion of the country by the end of the weekend. Strong cold front will quickly move through the region Sat, with gusty NW winds expected by afternoon on the plains.
Most of the earlier day precip had shifted south of the area as an upper level low shifted slowly southeast along the Red River Valley.
514 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Overnight and Saturday dry conditions will continue as high pressure and clear skies begin to give way to increasing west winds ahead of the next storm. Saturday afternoon the upper trough and surface cold front will move into southern Wyoming. Scattered snow showers are expected over the lower elevations of NW CO and NE UT.
616 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Cold advection has cutoff for the time being and clouds have cleared, permitting temps to rise into the lower to mid 50s across the area. Still expecting additional light rain to affect portions of central to east Missouri beginning Saturday morning through the late afternoon as an upper low lifts northeast through the region.
557 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2019 A fast moving cold front will continue to deliver gusty west winds this evening with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Another round of winds are expected on Saturday with the arrival of another cold front over central Washington. Winds and precipitation chances will wane by Saturday night allowing much cooler temperatures to move into the region. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Windy conditions associated with a passing cold front will keep fairly robust winds at most TAF sites.
Shower activity continues tonight as the upper low slowly works its way eastward. As the upper low approaches, winds will be on the increase, and will help temps to rise overnight. Rain chances will decrease a bit overnight from west to east, but still will have some showers and light rain/drizzle before the cold front brings more heavy rain late morning through the afternoon and evening across the area. Rain will cover the area through most of the taf period as a low pressure system lifts north along the Ms River. Around 10Z, winds will become more southerly and increase as the low pressure center moves closer.
/issued 244 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ It's a crisp fall afternoon across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as a light northerly to northwesterly breeze continues to maintain cold air advection in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Another chilly night is on tap tonight, with lows expected to dip down into the 30s for most of the area, and even some 20s possible across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and across the Marfa Plateau by daybreak Saturday. Locations that look to fall below freezing tonight have already experienced a freeze this season, thus no additional Freeze Warnings are currently warranted.
948 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Rain continues to rotate around the upper low moving east along the Red River. Rain chances will be lower near the Kansas border, which is most removed from the upper low track.
No other changes to the forecast; morning lows in the low to mid 70s.
617 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Stout southerly flow is expected across the plains tonight as a low pressure center moves ast across southern Canada. Have raised winds along the Buffalo Ridge. Saturday will be the only day with above normal temperatures as 925 hpa temperatures warm to 10-12 C ahead of a cold front moving through the area.
Thus far most of the activity has been affecting the Lower and Middle Keys. These showers are due to an upper level low currently situated at the southern periphery of the Yucatan Channel with an inverted trough extending northward across the Keys and into southern mainland. Short Term Update - Rain chances will remain high (80 percent) until the trough has passed through the area. In addition, winds will also remain breezy until the trough's passage. Winds are slowly coming down but will decrease rather quickly with the passage of the trough overnight.
A cold front is just moving into our CWA at this time, and will rapidly move south and east across the area overnight. Winds will be gusty on higher elevation ridgetops, especially those facing northwest. Little precipitation is expected with the frontal passage, but there will be light snow showers in the higher elevations of Baker, Adams, and Valley counties. Be prepared for much cooler temperatures tomorrow, as much as 25 degrees cooler for daytime highs, along with gusty northwest winds. Scattered to broken clouds associated with a cold frontal passage overnight.
Temperatures will gradually warm and the winds will subside thROUGH Saturday as high pressure influences the region.
Look for dry weather through tomorrow as Pacific high pressure keeps a lid on the weather in northern and central Nevada. A low pressure system and cold front will pass through Nevada during the latter portions of the weekend, bringing some gusty winds, a few showers in the north and east, and much cooler temperatures.
642 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Bright, sunny latter October day out there across the region thanks to high pressure drifting across southern WI/northern IL this afternoon. South/southwesterly winds across the area on the backside of the high and sunshine helping temperatures recover from chilly overnight lows in the teens to mid-20s. The area will be between departing high pressure into the Great Lakes region and low pressure moving through southern Saskatchewan/ Manitoba. An increase in clouds will be noted through the day Saturday as a closed low lifts northward out of the mid-Mississippi Valley into central IL. Meanwhile a cold front will make its way into central MN which will keep warm air advection going. Plan on highs in the lower/middle 50s.
Active Pattern with Unseasonably Strong Cold Fronts. Until then, rain/drizzle will continue across most of Oklahoma (with the exception far northern/northwestern Oklahoma) in association with the comma-head of the low. Relatively warmer temperatures are expected in its wake Saturday afternoon (though a little cooler in northwest Oklahoma where there is still snow on the ground).
/issued 323 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Widespread rain will continue to spread into the Mid-South tonight and will continue into Saturday morning as Gulf moisture continues to spread northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system.
556 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2019 A fast moving cold front will continue to deliver gusty west winds this evening with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Another round of winds are expected on Saturday with the arrival of another cold front over central Washington. Winds and precipitation chances will wane by Saturday night allowing much cooler temperatures to move into the region. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Windy conditions associated with a passing cold front will keep fairly robust winds at most TAF sites.
As a cold front sweeps through this evening the gusty winds will switch to the west and then northwest and continue into Saturday. The High Wind Warning and Lake Wind Advisory remain in effect.
This the result of building low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries moving into the cntrl MS River Valley by the early afternoon hrs on Sat. This low pressure system will eventually push newd into the cntrl Great Lakes Region on Sun morning, dragging a cold front across the mid state region Sat night. Mid state region should remain dry Sun thru Tue due to transitioning sfc ridging influences. Highs generally in the low to mid 70s. Behind mentioned sfc frontal passage, lows around freezing will be possible Thu night and Fri night. Rain will cover the area through most of the taf period as a low pressure system lifts north along the Ms River. Around 10Z, winds will become more southerly and increase as the low pressure center moves closer.
High-res guidance is in pretty close agreement with holding onto likely PoPs across most areas with lesser chances in the higher terrain of the Appalachians where downslope conditions will likely dry out the column. The low pressure track along with the maximum magnitude of 850mb flow to the west of the Appalachians is climatologically favored for mountain waves. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 71 56 72 / 90 40 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 76 58 72 / 60 30 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 55 73 55 71 / 90 40 90 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 75 59 72 / 40 20 90 50 TN.
Between those two features, increasing mid-level zonal flow across the northern Rockies was promoting falling surface pressures over the High Plains with a weak lee trough noted as of early afternoon over central parts of the Dakotas and NE. That lee trough may dissipate or retrograde west tonight in deference to further pressure falls over the High Plains with light south winds and clear skies supporting overnight lows of 30 to 35. The progression of the Canadian perturbation will contribute to the equator-ward advance of a vigorous cold front which will likely stretch from western MN through central NE into northeast CO by Saturday evening. The cold front will advance through the entirety of the area Saturday evening with winds switching to north and increasing to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
821 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2019 A fast moving cold front will continue to deliver gusty west winds this evening with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Another round of winds are expected on Saturday with the arrival of another cold front over central Washington. Winds and precipitation chances will wane by Saturday night allowing much cooler temperatures to move into the region. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Windy conditions associated with a passing cold front will keep fairly robust winds at most TAF sites.
/Issued 948 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Rain continues to rotate around the upper low moving east along the Red River. Rain chances will be lower near the Kansas border, which is most removed from the upper low track.
1049 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2019 A fast moving cold front will continue to deliver gusty west winds this evening with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Another round of winds are expected on Saturday with the arrival of another cold front over central Washington. Winds and precipitation chances will wane by Saturday night allowing much cooler temperatures to move into the region. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Winds associated with todays passing cold front are generally on the decrease along with the rainfall.
324 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Today will be sunny and warm, but a cold front will pass through overnight and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for Sunday. A cold front was draped to the south/southwest across the western Dakotas, with clear skies and southerly winds ahead of it. This will set the stage for warmer than normal temperatures, so continued with the recent trend of having the high end of guidance for today's highs. Overall development and movement of the western CONUS trough energy remains forecast challenge.
353 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Water vapor loop showed upper level trough was located from southern ALTA into the Pacific Northwest. Cold front was located over northwest ND and will enter the far northwest zones around 12Z Sat. A weak 500mb trough passes through the FA on Sunday night. Think this may be more of a lake effect snow potential, due to the combination of very cold air in the 925-700mb layer over the warmer lake waters.
340 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Main concerns continue to revolve around several cold fronts this upcoming week and possibility of wintry precipitation. Closed upper low that has brought us widespread rainfall, some of which was heavy across parts of central and southeast Oklahoma, as well as record snowfall in northwest Oklahoma, will finally lift northeast of the area today. Much of the area should see sunshine today with warmer temperatures. These warmer temps will be rather short-lived as another cold front will move into the state on Sunday. Most of the models bring the front to near the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon with warm temps, 60s and 70s, to the southeast of the front with much cooler temps to the northwest.
A cold front will slide southward across Kansas on Sunday with high clouds streaming over central Kansas.
High temperatures will remain below normal while climbing into the low to mid 60s for much of south central and central KS while far southeast KS may linger in the mid and upper 50s. This front will usher in another blast of Canadian air with highs only reaching the 40s across central KS while far southeast KS may climb into the low to mid 60s prior to fropa.
A cold front will sweep in from the west this morning. A deep upper trough will begin to dig into the Dakotas tonight. While daytime highs will remain above freezing, tonight they will fall into the 20s. While highs are expected to climb into the 50s today, highs will only top out in the 30s under the upper trough on Sunday. The upper pattern throughout the extended features a semi- permanent longwave trough parked over the central CONUS.
Skies will be clear throughout the day with south winds ahead of a late afternoon/evening cold front. The cold front ushers in the beginning of a much colder period. Expect the cold front to move into the forecast area by late afternoon, approaching the tri-cities between 5 and 7pm and continuing southeast through the area. Cooler air, breezy north winds and stratus is expected tonight behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be near freezing. As the work week starts, the upper disturbance will be off to the west of the area with a piece of energy rotating around the base of the trough.
In addition, progged 925 mb temps for this afternoon off the deterministic guidance would suggest highs only in the low 50s. Nevertheless, increased temperatures to the top end of the guidance Saturday when 925 mb temps are even warmer and suggest mid 50s. The dry air and somewhat light winds tonight should send temperatures below freezing in WI, while a gustier flow will keep lows in the upper 30s across most of MN. The first cold front will work through the region on Sunday with limited moisture resulting in increased cloud cover and no precipitation.
Upper lows currently across northern TX expected to make bee-line north-northeast later this morning, making it up into the OH valley by days end. Showers/iso storms again expected to become little more widespread later this afternoon, hanging on into the late evening as associated trailing cold front passes. A fairly deep upper trough will drop out of the Pacific NW on Tue, eventually working down across the southern plains, then up across the OH valley through Thu.
/ISSUED 810 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ A cool and blustery night in the lower 50s inland / middle 50s along the coast as north winds continue to blow at a good clip, averaging 15 to to near 25 mph this evening.
Dry weather will last through early Saturday as surface ridging will be in place. By morning, clouds will race back north as the upper low to the south is drawn into the flow, resulting in a negative tilted path of the upper low into Illinois. Sunday is by far the best day of the week ahead, with highs back in the lower 50s north to around 60 south, and sunshine. Sunday night a cold front will pass through, with no precipitation expected.
901 PM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 As of 8 pm MDT, the cold front that will slam the door shut on the warmth that we had today appears to be located in northern parts of Hill, Liberty, and Toole Counties (to our west), and has not yet moved into our warning area. The high wind warning is being allowed to expire on time (at 9 pm), with gusts generally in the 30s over the last hour (MTM38-- the BLM Zortman E station--is still gusting to 46 mph as of 8 pm). As a cold front sweeps through this evening the gusty winds will switch to the west and then northwest and continue into Saturday. The High Wind Warning and Lake Wind Advisory remain in effect.