Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ahead of a longwave trough over much of the Plains states. While the H500 low along this trough over SE KS continues to lift NE into NW MO overnight. the attendant trough will remain stationary over the next few days. which should continue to spread NNE into portions of Deep E TX/Wrn LA tonight along an axis of H700 theta-e ridging that will expand N ahead of this trough. but this should change overnight as this theta-e ridging builds nwd. with the H850-700 trough slowly lifting back N Tuesday afternoon and weakening further.
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Cold front in Illinois will move through the forecast area Wednesday, followed by another over the weekend. Cold front currently over Il slowly inches closer today, but will not cross cwa until Wednesday. Cold front and upper level short wave support will slowly move through the region on Wednesday.
With a high moisture content in the lower atmosphere and nearly calm winds, the dense fog threat will continue to spread east. At this point, we are going to focus in on areas generally near and west of the Highway 65 corridor and will keep an eye on satellite trends this evening and overnight. As the trough continues to track east this evening and tonight, the showers will continue to spread northeast across the area. A drier air mass will spread into the area as the trough moves through the region and will end the rain from west to east this evening into Tuesday morning.
The disturbance will slow down and weaken in Nevada on Wednesday while a weak upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will spread further north for a slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain, mainly in the Boise/West Central Mountains and along the Nevada border. As a strong upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Ocean, a northwesterly flow will set up over the region. Two cold fronts will transition across the region within this pattern in an effort to bring in cooler, drier air.
Deep layer Bermuda ridge of high pressure holds strong from the west Atlantic into the southeast. 75 inches or so over the central portions of the forecast area begins to increase to around 2 inches over the eastern zones as Atlantic moisture moves in from the east, embedded in the low level southeast flow around the high pressure ridge.
/issued 152 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Mid/upper level trough has moved just e of the area while water vapor imagery show distinctly drier air aloft. The better low level mstr return Wed AM will be accompanied by the said mid/upper level trof returning w too. As such there will be a renewed possibility of -SHRA/-TSRA, especially from around noon Wed onward into Thur PM as the mid/upper trough sharpens. The possibility of storms will be on the increase again Sat as cold front is advertised to arrived sometime between 12Z Sat-12Z Sun.
153 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A warm front will bring the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, from later tonight into early Tuesday. A trailing cold front will follow, later Tuesday into the evening, with additional showers and storms.
The computer models do suggest that the upper ridge will weaken somewhat over the weekend, allowing a weak front to dip down into our region.
Otherwise, another muggy night with lows into the lower 70s are expected.
324 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 (Today and Tonight) The upper level trough that has been oriented southwest to northeast across our forecast area for the last few days will remain nearly stationary again today. As would be expected, showers and thunderstorms have developed east of the this trough, which has been east of our CWA for the most part. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through tonight with highs ranging from the lower 90s in our partly cloudy northwestern counties to near 80 degrees for southeastern areas under mainly cloudy skies with the possible rainfall.
This is keeping temperatures slightly cooler than anticipated with light winds as ridge axis pushes through the state.
301 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level trough over the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes region. First impulse embedded in the upper level trough is producing scattered convection over the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Latest 07z surface analysis indicates weak high pressure over northern Wisconsin into eastern Minnesota.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain. A similar pattern continues through the week as low pressure remains anchored over southern CA/NV and moisture values generally don't fluctuate much from day to day. By late this week a trough moving through the northern Rockies results in a more northwesterly flow, drawing drier air in from the north.
Temperatures continue to hover in the lower 70s with some patchy fog still possible. The main driver behind the convection is a piece of upper level energy pushing north along the edge of an upper level ridge axis. The overall pattern in the short term has not changed much over the past few days with a frontal boundary off to the northwest and a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures will also be status quo with mild morning lows, in the low 70s, and afternoon highs near 90 degrees. A cold front will be in the process of working southeastward across the region on Wednesday spawning numerous showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.
333 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will extend across the area today.
536 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
At the surface, weak high pressure over nrn WI into Upper Michigan has brought partly cloudy skies and dry weather to the cwa with light winds. 850 mb temps again around 14C will support max temps into the lower 80s inland. At the surface, a weak cold front/trough will lie across the same locations.
629 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure in Michigan will exit the region to the northeast and trail a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. This front will wash out this evening and then a weak upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Weak high pressure will then settle over the region for the end of the work week in a continued moist airmass. Highs today will range from the low 80s in the northwest in closer proximity to the front and longer time in the rain, to the upper 80s in the southeast which stands to see some sun at least early in the day. The cold front washes out this afternoon and is not discernible in the pressure fields after 0z tonight.
355 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An area of low pressure over the southern tip of Lake Michigan will pass to the north of Lake Erie of today. A warm front stretching from the low across northern Ohio will lift north of the lake this morning. A cold front trailing the low will sweep east across the local area this afternoon. A trough will cross the region late Wedneday.
By Wednesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will begin moving south from Canada east of the Continental Divide.
324 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An area of low pressure over the southern tip of Lake Michigan will pass to the north of Lake Erie of today. A warm front stretching from the low across northern Ohio will lift north of the lake this morning. A cold front trailing the low will sweep east across the local area this afternoon. A trough will cross the region late Wedneday.
Generally easterly flow will be in place for the next few days with high pressure ridging across the area.
635 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Showers are expected today behind a low pressure that moved into Lower Michigan last night. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a weak cold front moves into the area. The upper level trof and associated upper level disturbance that merged over the area last night and produced over 8 inches of rain at South Bend was moving into lower Michigan. Additional showers are possible along with a rumble of thunder as a diffuse weak cold front moves southeast into northern Indiana this afternoon. An upper level trof will move into the region this weekend and should bring another round of showers and storms to the forecast area.
333 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A warm, but somewhat unsettled pattern can be expected over the next few days with several disturbances embedded within west-to-northwest flow aloft on the edge of a Four Corners ridge. Thunderstorms likely once again this afternoon with low-level convergence in the vicinity of the Laramie Range and moist upslope over the high plains.
340 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An upper level trough axis will remain oriented from northeast to southwest across the region today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be likely again today, especially to the east/southeast of the upper trough axis.
Kept all zones dry through tonight (pop grids <15%), given high pressure building aloft with rising heights and anemic instability. This will translate to afternoon max temps a bit above mid August normals, in the low to mid 90s. Tranquil weather continues through the remainder of the work week as models show a weak upper level high moving eastward from the Four Corners region towards the High Plains. A trough of low pressure will continue to be the main feature at the surface leading to winds from a southerly direction. Highs during this time frame look to reach to around 90 degrees with lows ranging from the lower 60s west to upper 60s east. Models then suggest a strong upper level trough to move down from Canada and into the Northern and Central Plains this weekend.
Ridge of high pressure, which has been the dominant feature over the last several days, continues to nose westward from the Carolinas into Northern Georgia and Alabama. Meanwhile water vapor imagery shows deep moisture moving NE over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a Great Plains trough.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms early this week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. High pressure nearly overhead with limited available moisture. With a portion of the ridge overhead our mid level flow has weakened considerably, but still out of the north and east. For the rest of the week, as high pressure shifts eastward and weaknesses in the flow develop northwest of our area over the next 72 hours, we should see deeper moisture nose back in along with better dynamics for increased conditional instability. High pressure with VFR conditions across the area.
Low pressure driving through the panhandle thu night passes through the forecast area Fri afternoon and evening, bringing plenty of moisture and instability. SE Idaho to remain on the northern fringes of an ill- defined area of low pressure over the Great Basin.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the region today.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a stationary upper trough extending from the Central to Southern Plains. Vapor imagery also showed an elongated upper low in the northern-central gulf.
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure in Michigan will exit the region to the northeast and trail a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. This front will wash out this evening and then a weak upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Weak high pressure will then settle over the region for the end of the work week in a continued moist airmass. Highs today will range from the low 80s in the northwest in closer proximity to the front and longer time in the rain, to the upper 80s in the southeast which stands to see some sun at least early in the day. The cold front washes out this afternoon and is not discernible in the pressure fields after 0z tonight.
206 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An area of low pressure will move northeast from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region through tonight. Attendant warm front will lift northward through area before a slow-moving cold front moves through region Tuesday/Tuesday night. As this occurs, a warm front will lift northward through our region. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Tuesday night lows will range from the upper 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the south. The upper level ridge that has been anchored to our se is flattened late Wednesday, which acts to interrupt the moisture feed.
409 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Bermuda ridge pattern to keep steady- state onshore flow in place for the foreseeable future. Still mitigating a large area of runoff and routing through the lower ends of the lake drainage basins. This is generating backwater issues closer to Lake Maurepas simply due to the high volume of runoff. bermuda ridge flow to maintain onshore flow at light to moderate levels.
322 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Persistent frontal boundary remains off to our west this morning with the ridge slightly more off shore in the Atlantic this morning. With less influence from the upper level ridge, convection should be more robust today as the frontal boundary slips just into western Kentucky. A cold front will be in the process of working southeastward across the region on Wednesday spawning numerous showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.
623 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
434 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Summer will continue today as upper level ridging and weak west to northwest flow aloft remains over the state. an upper level ridge of high pressure will cover the Rocky Mountain Region. with a weak upper level trough of low pressure centered over Nevada. with dry air at the lower levels. This pattern may produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms most numerous over the high country.
The short term will be dominated by high pressure situated over the Atlantic off the coast off the Carolinas and given this overall pattern, the seabreeze will be the main focus for the short term. The low level flow will mainly be southeast to east Tuesday and Wednesday. This would indicate the highest PoP chances mainly across the Florida, although still a slight chance to chance further inland. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
346 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Upper level analysis has western ridge over the Great Basin with fast northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, weak surface trof is located across the central Dakotas with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Western upper ridge will slowly progress eastward, with heights increasing across the area. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures compared to Mondays readings. Shower and storm activity will likely initiate off the higher terrain, then progress southeastward onto the southwest plains of SD late in the afternoon. Upper ridge continues to build into the area tonight with showers and storms over southwest SD diminishing quickly in the evening. By late in the afternoon, upper ridge axis shifts east as weak upper level energy moves in from the northwest.
The lower resolution models -even the NAM12- are doing very poorly with this, even to the extent of having washed out this feature and dried up the QPF hours ago. The higher resolution models and CAMs are doing better, and have used them almost exclusively for the forecast for tonight and early Tuesday. Synoptically, there will be trough moving through the Northland Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. There is good agreement between the latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF with the passage of this trough. Behind the trough, high pressure will build in providing dry and quiet weather.
At the surface, weak high pressure over nrn WI into Upper Michigan has brought partly cloudy skies and dry weather to the cwa with light winds. 850 mb temps again around 14C will support max temps into the lower 80s inland.
/ISSUED / A coastal trough has developed right near the coast.
Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the low-mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS AS IT HEADS FOR THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER LOW.
608 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 An upper level trough is currently pushing off to the east and will continue to do so today as an upper level ridge builds into the plains today. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The upper level ridge will build over the region this weekend allowing warm conditions to occur.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 54 76 53 / 70 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 54 73 50 / 70 20 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 54 73 50 / 70 20 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 50 70 46 / 70 40 20 0.
FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DRY/MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
926 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIMINISHING POPS OVER OHIO FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARS THE OHIO RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
1029 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
647 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 Today - Saturday: While the upper low which has dominated our weather for the past several days has moved into IL we'll still have to deal with some of its' residual after effects in the form of cloud cover. 00Z models didn't handle this very well but the 06z NAM run looks more reasonable and spreads the low clouds across the northern third of the CWA this morning before lifting and eventually scattering out by mid afternoon. Upper ridging now over the Rockies will translate east with the ridge axis passing through early Saturday.
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ THIS MORNING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE RAINFALL OF RECENT HAS SHIFTED INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANS. A FEW LINGERING BUT DECREASING SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION PROVIDING A DRY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A MORE MOIST AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF A NEAR COASTAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW LBX FOG TO LINGER ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. LOOK FOR A COUPLE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER DAYS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON - THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THAT WELL. SCT SHRA AND ISO TS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NW AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A PLEASANT SPRING DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ONLY FELL INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND TUCSON AND MANY LOWER DESERT LOCALES. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 70S AS OF 1545Z. SUBTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ARE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY WITH EVEN A FEW SURFACE OBS IN NEW MEXICO INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
934 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ONE MORE DAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL HANG IN FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY.
ISSUED 322 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OPEN INTO A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BECOME SPOTTY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front from northeast MS to the coastal waters of TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive-tilted trough approaching from the west. This system is expected to weaken a bit as it moves into a region with less favorable thermodynamics, but we are still forecasting high rain chances across most of our area this afternoon given the expected Q-G forcing and moisture ahead of the approaching trough.
730 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
951 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEEKEND.
1024 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A SECONDARY SFC WEAK TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STRATUS RAPIDLY INCREASING BEHIND IT. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHIELD OF STRATUS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT 16Z WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE SHIELD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM 18Z TO 00Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP HIGHS RECOVER TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A 5-6F SFC TEMP DIFFERENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
WITH SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS LIKELY TO POP BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EJECTS DOWNSTREAM AND MEAN LAYER MOISTURE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY. STILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE UNDER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY FROM THE WSW.