Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1115 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Strong high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will keep the breezy easterly flow across the region bringing some Atlantic moisture westward leading to scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus along with a few sprinkles over the southern interior and southwest counties this afternoon and early evening. Strong high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift east well out into the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend, but continue to ridge west-southwest across the waters.
/issued 732 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ For the 24/12Z TAF period, mostly MVFR conditions affecting our area terminals this morning as low stratus continues to surge in from the Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front across the Srn Plains.
1123 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather today.
Dry and warmer conditions will return to northern Arizona today. The next low pressure system will cross the state Saturday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain showers mainly from Flagstaff northward.
638 AM MST Fri Mar 24 2017 A high pressure will move quickly through the region today, ahead however another Pacific disturbance expected over northern Arizona Saturday.
Not much going on aside from the fog as precipitation associated with an upper low remains to the south. 850mb dry air advection should help with that today as an induced high pressure bends around the north side of the low to the south.
729 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will drift northeast from the Ohio River Valley today, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain this morning followed by a rapid warm up.
The mid level trough associated with the front will amplify a bit over southern Florida and the straits of Florida today.
Increasing flow of slightly drier air in the low- levels from the north will work to really narrow the deformation band later this afternoon as the larger upper trough ejects eastward. Saturday: The large upper low will slowly pivot eastward into the Mississippi river valley through the day.
The cut-off upper low will slow its northeastward progress on Saturday, under a broad upper ridge. A trof axis extending south of the low will rotate into northwest MS / southwest TN Saturday afternoon, helping to reorganize storms in an increasingly unstable airmass.
Rain and wind will spread southward today across the forecast area as a cold front moves across the region.
401 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer and dry today under high pressure aloft. A low pressure system moving inland through California will bring small chances for light precipitation late tonight and Saturday along and west of the mountains along with gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
Radar shows the higher elevations of southwest Idaho are also getting rain and snow, while the Treasure Valley remains shadowed due to southwest flow at mid levels and moderate southeast winds in the valley. Expect scattered showers on Saturday in the moist unstable air in the upper level trough.
1252 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight.
Temperatures this morning turn it into a dense freezing fog. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: The day begins with Northeast Montana under an upper level ridge. Today with ridging we can expect another mild day with above normal highs and a southerly breeze. But tonight, flow aloft begins to back around to the southwest as the trough splits off, sending a cold front into the Pac-NW. Another piece of the trough swings across the Great Basin. Saturday the trough brings the cold front into the local region, but the northern portion of the Pac-NW trough heads into Saskatchewan, taking the moisture with it. However, the southern trough finally sends moisture along the front that clips the southeast portion of the GGW CWA.
With temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s through this afternoon, these winds will mostly mixed down with 20 to 25 knots over near shore waters and tidal lakes and 15 to 25 knots or 20 to 30 mph with gusts up 35 mph over Southeast Louisiana next to and south of tidal lakes and River Parishes.
Steepening lapse rates associated with the cold core upper low could produce a few severe storms (mainly hailers) this evening across northeast OK.
High Rip Current threat and High Surf at the Atlantic beaches A strong and well-stacked H100-H70 high pres ridge centered off the Carolina Coast will be the dominant WX feature for central FL, generating a deep and strong easterly flow thru the lyr. Morning analysis shows a frontal boundary stalled over Keys/ern GOMex with a band of enhanced moisture pooling within its associated trof. Hazardous boating conditions to cont well into the weekend as a strong high pres ridge centered off the Carolina Coast generates a fresh to strong easterly breeze acrs the lcl Atlc.
1142 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will drift northeast from the Ohio River Valley today, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain this morning followed by a rapid warm up.
1034 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Expect mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered to the west.
630 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system has developed over SE Colorado with a triple point over central Kansas extending a warm frontal boundary up through central Nebraska and a weak cold frontal boundary south into northern TX. As the low moves into northern Arkansas and southern MO Friday night into Saturday as the occluded like boundary pushes through the area creating another round of scattered showers with embedded elevated thunderstorms throughout most the day on Saturday.
943 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight.
644 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Low pressure system continues to deepen over the High Plains of southeast Colorado early this morning, keeping a stout south wind over the forecast area. Storm development has remained well to our west in vicinity of a dry line over western KS/OK, and along the warm front over NE/IA. By mid to late evening, will carry high pops all areas as main low pressure system approaches the region and cap gradually erodes. Low pressure will be over the region Saturday morning so will keep precipitation going through the afternoon before tapering off in the evening as the storm system weakens and lifts northeast of the Ozarks.
Rising upper level heights will follow the exiting wave pushing a warm front further north.
However, parts of it may need to be cancelled early depending on where the low tracks, with the northern edge of the advisory being the most likely area, so will continue to monitor with some changes possible later. Additional showers/storms will be possible across approximately the northern half of the fa this afternoon as the upper low moves across the area. Extended PoPs a little further south to account for a more southern track of the upper low. Some wrap around showers will be possible by late this afternoon and through the night across northern Oklahoma as the upper low gradually pushes east. Cold temperatures aloft, associated with the upper low, may lead to the possibility for a few cold air funnels late today into the evening hours as well.
This brings the high temperature for Pittsburgh close to 70, and this could be conservative.
629 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will lift north through Illinois today, setting the stage for continued significant warm air advection. Our W and NW counties should see just thin cirrus for most of the day, allowing warmer conditions to develop there. Rain and scattered storms will expand eastward across Illinois this evening, as low pressure progresses from Oklahoma into Missouri.
Mid level ridging across the southeast states will slowly shift eastward as an upper low moves into the southern Plains. Low level moisture will begin to dry out today but high level moisture from the Pacific associated with the southern Plains trough will move into the area beginning later this morning.
1046 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Current surface map places deep low across southeast Colorado with high pressure across the western Dakotas. For the rest of today, upper low will move into central plains with northern Rockies ridge shifting into the northern plains. Next upper trof in progressive flow moves across the Rockies on Saturday with increasing southwest flow aloft. Thermal profiles support rain/snow mix across northeast Wyoming with snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
Southerly gradient has set up over the Ohio Valley ahead of a deep closed low currently nearing the OK/TX Panhandle. Tonight the upper low will parallel the old Route 66 corridor out of Oklahoma into southern Missouri, and the warm conveyor belt will slowly edge eastward across Kentucky and Indiana.
818 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight.
Dry and warmer conditions will return to northern Arizona today. The next trough of low pressure will cross the state Saturday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain showers mainly from Flagstaff northward.
The main items of interest for today is the deformation rain band that is forecast to wrap around the synoptic low and the high wind potential. Therefore, have the highest pops in our north across the forecast district. This should delay the onset on the strongest winds on the backside of the low. Have added an end warning buffer since the low is moving more slowly across the greater region. The model does continue to vary with the position of this heavier axis as the synoptic lows/trofs keep changing with each run. An area of low pressure at the surface will deepen as it moves from southeast Colorado into northwest Oklahoma today.
High pressure across across the state will continue to weaken with southerly flow increasing as the ridge moves further into the Atlantic. This is due to our continued advancement of a developing low pressure system across Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas with an associated front extending southward into West Texas. This low should push toward Missouri through tonight and drag the front toward the Mississippi River Valley extending into Southeast Texas in the process.
825 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Fair and warmer today under high pressure aloft.
/Today/ Upper ridging will help keep the area dry today, but an increase in clouds is expected with moisture and some isentropic lift in a warm advection pattern. However, did go warmer than some of the MOS numbers.
648 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 /12Z TAFS/ A line of showers associated with an eastward-advancing cold front will exit the area by 13Z this morning. A thin band of showers is currently moving across the area early this morning as a cold front moves through the area. A potent upper level low currently in southeastern CO will continue moving northeast into the Central Plains today. On the southern side of this low, downward momentum will bring strong west to southwesterly winds to the surface. Although, a cold front will have moved through, dry, downsloping winds and partly cloudy to clear skies will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The medium range models indicate intense upper level troughs/lows moving east across the Southern Plains.
/Today through Tonight/ Intense low pressure system over southeast Colorado this morning with a very pronounced warm front extending northeast into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Temperatures at 3 am this morning were still in the low to mid 60s over southwest Iowa while temperatures were in the upper 30s across the far northern portion of the state. The area of low pressure will begin to shift slowly east today and fill. As the low pressure moves further east, it will drag the colder air south along with increasing precipitation along the deformation axis through tonight and will keep the potential for precipitation going for much of the night.
824 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
A colder air mass moves in behind the front, bringing cooler than -25C 500 mb temps into the region that will bring possible isolated thunderstorms into the coastal waters this morning, spreading inland to the Cascades this afternoon. a weak upper level ridge builds in behind the exiting front Saturday, bringing a break in the precipitation and clearing Saturday afternoon.
It seems that the positioning of the high just off to our east is allowing most of the Central Valley and Northward to benefit from downsloping influences, although weak, at 850 mb up 700 mb. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 54 72 58 / 0 0 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 46 69 53 / 0 0 10 70.
624 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Not much going on aside from the fog as precipitation associated with an upper low remains to the south. 850mb dry air advection should help with that today as an induced high pressure bends around the north side of the low to the south.
Ridge runner storm along the Raton Ridge. Convection should manage to get going over the plains and ridges during the afternoon, no problem.
636 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 As a cold front pushes towards the region today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Went the highest pops, 40 to 50, across nrn KY into srn OH with the second feature. With dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs into the 80, CAPES of several thousand J/kg will be possible.
The coolest temperatures can be found near the Tennessee River where Paris and Savannah are in the lower 70s. Over the next 24 hours or so we will transition into a slightly cooler and wetter pattern. Afternoon highs today are expected to be in the low to middle 90s. The cold front probably won't make it much farther South than the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon before stalling.
fcst models continue to show nocturnal shwr/storm activity across the Central Plains as the low-level jet strengthens with time.
The upper level ridge remains in place across the southern U. stretching from CA to FL while a mid level thermal ridge continues to bring intense heat to our region. The thermal ridge is expected to weaken slightly which should allow for temperatures to cool a bit the next few days. An upper level disturbance moving north around the upper ridge will impact the area Friday into the weekend.
326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 06Z surface data has a cold front running from western Wisconsin into southern Kansas. Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
An unseasonably cold low pressure system will move through the region over the weekend for cool temperatures and more rain showers some of which could produce moderate rainfall amounts.
In fact, MAV/MET MOS indicates that the highest pops through the 24 hour period should occur in the next six hours, which does not appear likely at the moment. By the afternoon focus shifts to the approaching cold front.
232 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An upper trough will exit the Carolina coast by sunrise this morning.
332 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain in control for most of West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Will keep highs at or a couple degrees cooler than yesterday.
Also with the mid level trough axis isolated showers are possible this afternoon, although CAPE is very low and a cap exists above 800 mb above the unstable low levels, with dry mid levels. The cap weakens toward evening as the mid levels moisten with the mid level trough.
Location and timing is uncertain attm and have kept PoPs on the lower end for now. As for temps, have trended twd the warmer guidance for most of the area today.
CAMs indicate this activity largely fizzling as upper trof pushes into western PA by 12z. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Still looking for heat indices to approach advisory criteria over portions of the lower Susq River Valley on Friday.
Pops more or less then continue onward thru the remainder of the short term forecast, with upper energy/wave between the High Plains ridge aloft and the Upper Ohio Valley Cyclone. This unsettled energy in the soupy/charged atmos in place offers just enough disturbance to overturn and efficiently rain out the high PWs in place, so more daily chances for the foreseeable future continue forecast.
Aloft, weak ridging into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend.
1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Things are evolving fairly rapidly as of mid afternoon as strong deep layer forcing from the upper trof in the Dakotas continues to overspread much of MN. This upper trough will dig into the Northwestern U.
Upper ridge moving across Montana today with hot and dry weather expected. As ridge shifts east, southwest flow increases into the state as a Pacific upper low spins toward the Pacific Northwest.
351 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Upper ridge continues to over the ArkLaTex this morning, despite the presence of a trof and cold front over the Upper Midwest. Series of disturbances expected to move across the mid MS River valley this weekend, nudging the back-door cold front further swd towards our region. This will weaken the upper ridge and allow for the return of afternoon convection, especially across the nern portions of the area in the vc of the front.
(Issued 901 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016) A warm and muggy evening is on tap with temps as of 9pm still in the lower to upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weak high pressure is slowly building eastward at the surface with mid-level ridging strengthening overnight. Lows were touched up slightly based on the current obs and the lows we reached last night.
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Current surface map shows high pressure across the western Dakotas.
1138 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Today's temperatures are running 2-4 degrees cooler than Wednesdays, behind a weak disturbance that passes east of the area last night. The flow aloft will become more southwest as the next low pressure system develops off the northwest Pacific coast.
338 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Cooler and less humid today, then returning humidity and only small rain chances over the weekend are the primary concerns of this forecast.
/issued 236 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Persistent 500 mb ridge will remain stretched across Texas through the short term period, dominating the weather pattern. While the column overall is fairly dry, southeasterly flow in the lower levels will maintain dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.
These features will move east to southeast through the day with a cooler northerly flow developing. Highs will range from the mid sixties in the Arrowhead to the lower seventies from the Brainerd Lakes east to Phillips and Park Falls. As the low pressure system continues to pull off tonight, showers/storms will end.
This will center SE Michigan within a progressively destabilizing profile heading into the afternoon period, immediately downstream of an inbound cold front and strong PV anomaly timed to arrive at peak heating. Residual mid level cyclonic flow trailing the exiting trough to start the weekend.
Temps are quite warm as the 850 mb thermal ridge is lying across the region. and thus will not need any heat headlines for the lower Susq for today.
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An amplified upper level trough across the upper midwest early this morning will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Tonight. The upper flow across eastern KS will weaken and shift to the northwest through Tonight as an upper level ridge amplifies across the high plains. At the surface a weak cold front front extended from northwest MO, southwest through Topeka, then west southwest across western KS.
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The upper low will continue to propagate east today. with ridging building in its wake.
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 As a cold front pushes towards the region today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Went the highest pops, 40 to 50, across nrn KY into srn OH with the second feature. With dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs into the 80, CAPES of several thousand J/kg will be possible.
The 00Z GFS develops thunderstorms to our west over the high plains during the afternoon that then slide into our southwest zones during the evening hours.
Trof axis overhead now resulting in elevated shower and weak thunderstorm activity. The caveat will be that there will be a fairly decent dry layer below 10kts, along with mid level ridging.
This will lead to some uncertainty on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms later today in Minnesota and western Wisconsin as the area of low pressure moves off to the east- southeast. Cooler temperatures will also reflect the increasing cloud cover along with much cooler air aloft.
A cold front dropping south across southwest Kansas during the afternoon will be located near the Oklahoma border during the early evening hours. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures can be expected on Friday given the cooling trend forecast in the 900mb to 850mb level along with the expected cloud cover.
507 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 High pressure centered to our northeast will be over the area today.
Temps should be quite a bit warmer Friday so will need to monitor for possible heat advisory again.
Isolated strong to severe convection still ongoing across the area early this morning, as deep moisture and instability have pushed westward toward the I-25 corridor in the wake of cold frontal passage. Upper ridge will be overhead on Sasturday, leading to mostly dry and hot conditions. With some residual moisture under the ridge, could see a few storms pop up in the late afternoon and eve, especially over the SE Plains.
CAMs indicate this activity largely fizzling in the next few hours while the upper trof pushes into western PA by 12z. Temps are quite warm as the 850 mb thermal ridge is lying across the region. and thus will not need any heat headlines for the lower Susq for today.
235 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The upper trough that moved through the Dakotas yesterday is exiting Minnesota and moving into the Upper Great Lakes.
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The model consensus shows showers and thunderstorms forming on a warm front across NW Neb this morning. 33 inches and K-indices in the lower 40s as lapse rates steepen. The humidity is being transported northward into the region ahead of a large upper level trough of low pressure that will be developing into the Pacific northwest.
A cold front on Friday will usher in drier air for the weekend. High resolution models are still indicating that in a moist zonal flow aloft along with some increase in low level convergence/jet may result in convection developing over the lower Ohio River valley and extending close to our southern border. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s. A cold front is expected to move into the CWA during the afternoon, and then pass through during the evening. Cold front will support the development of showers and thunderstorms during this time.
high pressure is centered over wrn SD. High pressure shifts into the far ern Dakotas tomorrow afternoon with return flow over our wrn 2/3rds zones. Should be rather warm with thermal ridge building through ern WY. Upper level ridge begins to build into the region during the weekend.
602 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 High pressure centered to our northeast will be over the area today.
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today.
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Central/Northern Plains upper trough influencing Kansas and northern Oklahoma convection will continue to move east and away from region today. Although large-scale forcing will be weaker with departure of upper trough, low amplitude s/wv trough progd to move over region from northern Mexico, combined with frontal boundary, will likely yield at least scattered storm development this afternoon and tonight, some of which will be severe.