Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A major shift in the weather pattern will begin tomorrow across the area as a trough pushes across the Rockies. By tomorrow the trough across the Central Plains begin to split into two pieces with the northern portion continuing eastward while the southern end of the trough breaks off, closes, and then begins to retrograde back to the southwest. The proximity to the trough in combination with the plentiful Gulf moisture streaming into the state will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow for much of the area.
315 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Low pressure along the coast of the Carolinas will weaken and head east tonight. A back door cold front enters the area by Saturday night.
Low pressure system and exiting the state will allow high pressure to build back over the region over the weekend. Copious amounts of rainfall and surface moisture coupled with clearing skies this evening will allow areas of freezing fog to develop in valley locations across eastern and northeastern nevada tonight and early Saturday morning. Expect a warming trend and dry conditions to continue for the next several days as high pressure builds back over the state.
333 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Warm front continues to surge northward this afternoon with a large temperature gradient across the region. Low clouds and fog remain stuck over the higher elevations of the eastern CWA and will keep fog mention into the evening/overnight hours as things may be a bit harder to scour out here. Focus will then shift to Saturday as low pressure moves northward into ND.
(Issued 1023 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016) A strong area of high pressure remains in place over northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee this morning. We could use some here, but will remain dry courtesy of the high pressure and very dry air aloft. Current temperatures are already in the lower 80s in the normal hot spots such as Huntsville and Muscle Shoals. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the main influence on areal sensible weather.
The 850 boundary will shift east on Saturday as mid level ridging moves into the region. High pressure over Ontario will shift east bringing drier air from the east to southern WI. Warm advection kicks in as southeast winds veer south ahead of deepening trough over the northern Plains. The increasing clouds and some mixing from 25 knot winds around 1k feet at the top of the shallow nocturnal inversion will keep lows in the lower 60s, with some upper 50s in the far north and northeast.
Dry and slightly warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. Expect dry weather on Saturday as Arizona is influenced by northerly flow on the back side of the trough stretched from the northern Plains into the southern Rockies.
Overnight lows will generally range from the lower 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Dry conditions will continue through Friday, courtesy of an amplifying mid-level ridge directly overhead of the local area as depicted on water vapor imagery.
A large ridge of High Pressure over the plains states is expected to build across the Ohio valley and Great Lakes Tonight and Saturday. High pressure over Ontario will also build southwest.
237 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Expect dry weather today and tonight as an upper ridge remains Missouri and Illinois. Britt The dry weather will continue into Saturday as the ridge remains over the area, so any showers and thunderstorms associated with the approaching trough from the west will stay just to the west of the CWA.
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A warm front was lifting through the forecast area early this morning, with all convection north of the region. Pops dramatically increase through the day Saturday as a cold front begins to move toward the region with a marginal risk of severe storms possible Saturday afternoon/evening.
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge remains in place over the Mississippi Valley today and the ridge should remain over the region for much of the weekend.
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A ridge of high pressure continues to promote sunny. Higher thickness values and 850/700 mb temperatures were also noted on model progs as the upper-ridge axis amplifies. combined with the very dry soils will help warm highs into the low to mid 90s over the central/southern Valley. Strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate area weather early in the extended.
136 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels. A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of the front. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight temperatures will be similar to last night's low temperatures, daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's values.
227 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through later today and tonight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. Cold front sitting along the northern PA border this aftn. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
356 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A strong upper level low was over northern UT this aftn with moderate QG ascent over CO at this time. As the upper low moves into central Wy tonight. Cooler on Saturday and generally dry across the northeast plains. A mix bag of rain and snow showers in the high country saturday aftn. The upper level low will be over Wyoming on Saturday with wrap around moisture continuing to bring precipitation to the mountains through Saturday afternoon. Instability and lingering moisture will keep a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday evening for the higher mountains and adjacent plains. Elsewhere on the plains clouds will increase through the day with cooler temperatures on continuing cold advection.
1125 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northern CO and southwest WY with developing warm front into eastern NE. Water vapour showed upper low over eastern NV, which is the main forecast concern this morning. This afternoon and this evening, dynamic evolution of aforementioned upper low expected. With temperatures ranging from the lower 60s over northwest SD to the upper 80s over south central SD across front boundary, forecast uncertainty is high. Fast moving cold front will push into CWA Saturday afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds.
102 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday.
558 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After a cold front passes through the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend. A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of the front. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight temperatures will be similar to last night's low temperatures, daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's values.
High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region by Sat night.
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon continues to feature a longwave trough across the western CONUS, with downstream ridging found across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest. On Saturday, the upper-level ridging that has been in place for the past several days will slowly shift off to the east-southeast. KD Convection should move into northeast and central MO Saturday night as a deepening upper level trough moves eastward through the northern Plains and the persistent upper level ridge over our area begins to shift further southeast. This upper level ridge along with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions southwest into southeastern MO and southern IL will likely keep areas from STL south and east dry through Saturday night.
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region by Sat night.
312 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 This is largely a persistence weather forecast with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. The increasing low level moisture should keep our temps a degree or two warmer tonight compared to last night, with similar gains expected again Saturday night.
On the larger scale, upper low in Utah will move into Wyoming tonight and rain should exit the Magic Valley to the east. Patchy fog will form in the valleys early Saturday morning and then Saturday will be sunny and a little warmer than today.
Upper ridging will strengthen through the short term, keeping us dry and very warm.
312 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After a cold front passes through the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend. A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of the front. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight temperatures will be similar to last night's low temperatures, daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's values.
Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery was showing the upper low centered near Salt Lake City with diminishing radar returns across SE Idaho. Numerical models continue to show the low lifting NE into Wyoming late this afternoon and eventually into SW North Dakota by Saturday afternoon.
217 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 20z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over eastern colorado with a warm front arcing northward from southwestern into central and eastern South Dakota. The upper low is located over far southwestern Wyoming this afternoon and will track eastward tonight. Temperatures have risen into the mid 90s in the area of sunshine south of the warm front over south central South Dakota, with lower 60s in the region of stratus over far northwestern South Dakota. A fast moving cold front will push into northwestern CWA Saturday afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds.
Have the highest confidence for the TYR and GGG terminals in which this isolated convection will affect these areas through mid-afternoon.
A low amplitude upper level trough and associated frontal boundary will weaken as it moves east of the Cascades today. Highs will be mainly in the 50s mountains and 60s in the lower elevations. There will be a bit of a westerly breeze this afternoon and evening in the lower elevations. Lowest cigs will run between 3500 and 7000 ft AGL at most sites, though KYKM and KPSC will remain near the high end of the range.
A dry punch and subsidence should allow for clearing across much of the region before a backside spoke of energy rotates around the low as it shifts farther into Wyoming overnight. Dynamics are not overly impressive as QG progs show the greatest up lift well north near and north of the upper low center. Temperature guidance has come in a bit warmer with added moisture and cloud cover. The Gunnison Valley could see some sub freezing temperatures near sunrise otherwise confidence not to high for freeze headlines.
436 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday.
627 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through later today and tonight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. Cold front sitting along the northern PA border this aftn. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
204 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through later today and tonight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. Cold front sitting along the northern PA border this aftn. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
152 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through today. A weak cold front will push south into the area tonight.
A warm front will continue to lift northward into the Dakotas today, with one more summer-like afternoon anticipated across the region. expect an area of low pressure to deepen on the lee side of the Rockies. expect the warm front to our north to begin to transition and track southeastward towards the local area as a cold front. there could be a strong thunderstorm or two ahead of the approaching cold front as instability increases during the overnight hours and shear values near 40kts are forecast by early Saturday morning. An upper level low pressure system in the northern Rockies is expected to move into the northern plains Saturday and Saturday night. A cold front moves into the forecast area Saturday morning.
The low level flow will veer slightly toward the E-NE, possibly pulling in some additional moisture just under the inversion from srn Ontario. The depth of the low level inversion and upstream cloud trends support continuing a predominate ceiling sub 5000 ft until roughly 12z. Surface cold front has slipped just south of the border with elevated front quickly on its heals. Large high pressure north in Canada will slowly slide southeast across Ontario through Saturday. Northeast flow will advect in cooler and drier air that will bring partial clearing into thumb region overnight, however, low and mid level moisture will remain in place across the rest of the area until Saturday afternoon, when surface ridging noses in bringing quick clearing from the northeast.
311 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Surface cold front has slipped just south of the border with elevated front quickly on its heals. Large high pressure north in Canada will slowly slide southeast across Ontario through Saturday. Northeast flow will advect in cooler and drier air that will bring partial clearing into thumb region overnight, however, low and mid level moisture will remain in place across the rest of the area until Saturday afernoon when surface ridging noses in bringing quick clearing from the northeast.
Ridging influences aloft, and enough continuing strength of ridging influences at the surface at/near terminal locations,to support VFR, and on the majority of time, SKC conditions thru 12/24Z.
While 90s will still be common over the E third of SD and W MN, the rest of the area will top out in the 80s, because of clouds, rain,or just being behind the cold front. Sfc dew points in the mid 60s, a healthy low level jet, and a trough rounding into our area and breaking down the 500MB ridge will also help.
High pressure. The boundary between the warm humid air mass and the cooler Canadian air is marked by a surface front that is draped across the Northern Plains. currently situated along the TX-OK border will attempt to undercut the ridge as well providing an impetus for some diurnal convection. the upper level ridge remains over the central portion of the country.
By this evening cooler air aloft will move west to east across the area as an upper level trough shifts from the Rockies and into the plains. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are again expected Sunday, along with cooler temperatures. High temperatures will generally be 10 to 15 cooler Sunday. Again the overall threat for severe thunderstorms is on the low side.
A 500mb ridge, currently over the region, will slide to the west as a trough digs slight south over New England. While the trough is strong, it does not look to significantly impact the weather for South Florida. This is ahead of a low pressure system that will bring a cold front towards north Florida. There is a weak 500mb low that will develop under the ridge, to the west of the area by mid week.
A uniform cumulus field has popped up in the southeastern CWFA in the lee of the surface trof as expected once highs reached the upper 80s. This reduced moisture will tend to counter the warmer high temperature's impact on instability ahead of a well-defined dry backdoor cold front which will be surging south into the area during the late afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will move slightly westward through Sunday. Models show northwest flow increasing some Sunday as upper ridge moves westward.
Active cluster of storms still ongoing across the Montgomery area as a westward moving outflow boundary is generating convection that is tracking eastward into the cooler side of the boundary and providing lift. /Issued 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ It is a typical summer afternoon out there today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Sunday morning will bring weak ridging to limit convection.
Tonight and Sunday A building upper ridge over the northern Plains is resulting in the upper flow becoming more northwest over the Great Lakes allowing a backdoor cold front to bring cooler and drier air to the area for tonight and Sunday. Temperatures and dewpoints will be almost 20 degrees cooler Sunday than they were today.
1054 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The 12Z upper air analysis indicated a mid-tropospheric ridge over the cntrl Plains. This system is expected to top the ridge over the next 24 hours with the associated frontal boundary dropping into the the northwest CWA by Sunday evening. Another hot day is in store for Sunday with the only change to forecast highs being an increase of a category over the northwest FA directly ahead of the surface cold front.
920 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move through the area Sunday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad ridge over most of the country. There was a weakness in this ridge over Texas and a deep trough over the west coast. The weakness in the upper level ridge will lead to weak cyclonic flow over Texas tonight and Sunday.
1013 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania overnight and early Sunday.
However, additional development will be possible overnight, mainly across the nwrn half of the CWA, as the weak upper trof over TX inches closer.
Lows will be in the lower 70s. Highs will be in the lower 90s. (Sunday Night through Saturday) Looks like summertime weather for this week as a flat upper level ridge builds over the area.
VFR will continue next 24 hours under high pressure.
1028 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure today. Cold front Sunday.
Overall, anvil shielding has likely lead to sufficient inhibition to prevent the higher threats this evening from being reached. Heavy rainfall may be possible especially across the northwest on the nose of the low level jet where convection may congeal. That said, the trend this evening has been for the higher bound of threats to not be reached. An attendant warm front will propagate into southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Supporting the possibility for tornadoes is strong 0-1 km storm relative helicity, over 200 m2/s2 for Saturday evening along the aforementioned warm front.
A lot of elevated instability and the low level jet getting going over central ND will help with a marginal threat for some severe hail overnight. Currently, a low pressure system is centered in southeastern MT with a warm front extending east through northern SD. This warm front will lift north through the forecast area tonight, providing a focus for elevated thunderstorm development. As the warm front in SD lifts north tonight, MU CAPE values will be around 1500-3000 J/kg with effective shear of 30-40 kts, supporting the possibility of severe storms across much of the area (basically north of Wahpeton). There may be a lull by late morning ahead of the cold front and upper wave.
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The central CONUS ridge is gradually making its eastward progression with the following trough positioned across the West Coast. Center of the low will continue to deepen but has a northeastern track with a lagging southern portion running from California to the Baja.
/issued 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. With more clouds expected on Sunday temperatures will be a little cooler with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Did increase the low chance POPs on Sunday farther south, but for now did not go more than 30 percent anywhere.
An attendant warm front will propagate into southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Supporting the possibility for tornadoes is strong 0-1 km storm relative helicity, over 200 m2/s2 for Saturday evening along the aforementioned warm front.
953 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move through the area tonight. bringing cooler and less humid air for Sunday. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. with locally cooler conditions near Lake Michigan. Well defined cold front noted from Saginaw Bay west to north of Muskegon with a noticeable drop in temps and dewpoints (at least 10 degree drop on both elements) behind the front. Weak pre- frontal trough and convectively enhanced short wave moved through northeast area earlier today helping bring sfc winds around to west northwest. Main synoptic cold front slides south through the area overnight. High pressure will be over the area at start of period but will be sliding east as return flow develops. Another upper midwest MCS looks likely Sunday night as short wave tops plains ridge.
Currently, a low pressure system is centered in southeastern MT with a warm front extending east through northern SD. This warm front will lift north through the forecast area tonight, providing a focus for elevated thunderstorm development. As the warm front in SD lifts north tonight, MU CAPE values will be around 1500-3000 J/kg with effective shear of 30-40 kts, supporting the possibility of severe storms across much of the area (basically north of Wahpeton). There may be a lull by late morning ahead of the cold front and upper wave.
Early afternoon analysis places a weak cold front slowly working south toward the I-90 corridor, driven by quite the push of low level ridging and drying working south out of Manitoba. Of more focus is the potential for some additional showers or storms later tonight into Sunday, along what should be a very tight moisture gradient backing west across the CWA, in response to that ridge axis sliding through the Great Lakes.