Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Persistent cloud cover and some precipitation yesterday kept temperatures cooler across the San Juan river valley. The cut off low pressure will continue to drift towards the Gulf of California and the associated moisture will push south as well.
Drier air will build into the region behind the departing cold front later this morning with clearing skies.
416 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A cold front will sweep through the plains today. As the upper trough deepens this evening, a few showers may even move over the west central MN counties. The upper trough will usher in much cooler temperatures.
There was a closed low at 500 mb over southern NV and southern CA which was part of a trough that extended up toward MT. Another trough was moving east across Canada. At 700 mb there was a thermal ridge from NM up into SD. Surface analysis at 3 am cdt showed a cold front from northeast ND into southwest SD and a low pressure center over eastern CO. Southerly low level flow will bring more moisture back into the area today, with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front should push southeast into KS and MO by late tonight as well.
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A cold front will sweep through the plains today. As the upper trough deepens this evening, a few showers may even move over the west central MN counties. The upper trough will usher in much cooler temperatures.
2 AM temperatures have dipped into the mid 50s in most locations, which are the lowest temperatures since mid June. Temperatures will top out slightly above normal today in the low 80s, but with dewpoints in the lower 50s, it will feel rather nice compared to what we've dealt with most of the month. This will also keep temps a little warmer tonight, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional scattered convection is expected later Wednesday afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest.
Strong to severe storms would be possible again given the higher instability levels.
530 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 07z surface analysis had low over northern MB with trailing cold front into central WY. Today, dry cold front slices through the CWA.
705 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A weak cold front will push across the area this morning, followed by high pressure rebuilding over the area through midweek. A cold front will cross the area this morning, followed by the return of high pressure later today. Highs today in the low to mid 80s. Clear sky/light winds will provide good radiating conditions tonight, as high pressure becomes centered just W of the CWA. Cooler with lows 55-60F range inland/low-mid 60s near the immediate coast. The area of high pressure moves just offshore of the Carolina coast by Wed evening. Still mostly sunny/less humid on Wed with highs in the low-mid 80s, except 70s immediate coast. Slightly warmer Wed night (w/ a light south breeze). Lows mainly in the low-mid 60s.
Dew points dropped overnight behind a weak cold front, too. VFR will continue through the next 24 hours under dry high pressure.
1041 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights an amplified pattern across our basin, with two upper lows bookending a mean-layer ridge over the northern Gulf Coast.
933 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Another quiet weather day is in store across South Florida as high pressure and deep layer ridging continues to dominate.
309 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper level low will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region this evening.
A cold front continues to slide eastward across the central Dakotas with some shower/sprinkle activity from the Mobridge area north and east into North Dakota. A cold front will sweep through the plains today. As the upper trough deepens this evening, a few showers may even move over the west central MN counties. The upper trough will usher in much cooler temperatures.
One of the highest rain totals in northeast Oklahoma was at Talala where almost 5 inches of rain fell (4.
/issued 933 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ Another quiet weather day is in store across South Florida as high pressure and deep layer ridging continues to dominate.
346 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Mid afternoon conditions across this forecast area indicate a cold front has swept through most of the area and remains draped north to south across far eastern zones. Otherwise, expecting an area of high pressure to gradually move in from the west overnight the day on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and more sunshine is expected.
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure over the area will weakens and drift east tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, and move through the area during the late afternoon and evening.
The main focus will be convergence in the 925-850 mb layer between the Highway 54 and I-44 corridors. There is then potential for convection to re-fire in the afternoon as a cold front moves southeast into the region. It does look like surface dew points should warm into the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of that front. At this point, we have highs over most areas warming into the lower 80s with perhaps some middle 80s near the Arkansas border. We will have to watch the potential for flooding closely, especially near and south of the Highway 60 corridor as there will be some potential for training thunderstorms.
218 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure will bring noticeably cooler temperatures and lower humidity through tomorrow.
Temperatures will approach the low 80s along and south of the I-25 corridor due to the westerlies effect on warming. A quiet overnight period is in store for the High Plains and adjacent mountain terrain with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s. A broad longwave trough will set up over the region overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, ushering in a dry cold frontal passage Wednesday with humidities rising slightly and temperatures dropping about 5 to 10 degrees in its wake.
Much cooler and unsettled weather is likely late this week and into the weekend.
Well we continue to be dominated by high pressure at the surface and the ridge aloft. Highs today climbed into the lower 90s over most of the area but a few locations may have stayed just under 90. With the way the ridge is setting up over the area and dominating most of the central/eastern Gulf and southeast CONUS conditions don't appear that they will change.
Meanwhile, the upper high pressure system centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours as a large upper trough over south central Canada and the northern Great Plains moves east over the Great Lakes and midwest states.
305 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over central and southeast Illinois overnight into the first part of Wednesday, as a cold front pushes across the area. A more significant cold front is expected late this week, with another round of steadier rain. Upper level pattern looks to be somewhat similar to the one from the more recent rain event, with an upper low over Arizona opening up and lifting northeast to interact with a separate wave moving through the north central U.
Highs will range from the lower 80s over parts of NE AR into the upper 80s over parts of North MS. /issued 508 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ A bit of relief will overtake the Mid-South today, with high temperatures in the mid 80s thanks to the passing cold front. The front will continue to sink south as high pressure builds into the area bringing dewpoint temperatures into the lower 50s. By Wednesday, rain chances increase as a weak cold front slowly moves into the area from the north.
Current dewpoints range from the low to mid 50s for most of the area. However, due to the cooler overnight temps, some fog is possible along area water ways. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 50s for most, which is near normal. Upper ridge remains to our south tomorrow and flow transitions from northwesterly to more zonal. Upper heights don't rise too much tomorrow but still expect warmer max temps with the non- northwesterly flow. Warm and dry weather conditions will persist through much of the extended as ridging will dominate late in the period. At the start of the period, a weak cold front will progress through the OH/TN valley region, while high pressure at the surface moves off the east coast.
204 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure will bring noticeably cooler temperatures and lower humidity through tomorrow.
1119 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Persistent cloud cover and some precipitation yesterday kept temperatures cooler across the San Juan river valley. The cut off low pressure will continue to drift towards the Gulf of California and the associated moisture will push south as well.
322 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Overnight temperatures will range from near 50 across the western half of the forecast area, except across the Pine Ridge region where lows could drop to near 45. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler from the upper 60s north to 75 to 77 southwest.
334 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Biggest forecast challenge in the near term is trying to determine rainfall amounts associated with the upcoming cold frontal passage later Wednesday night.
Water vapor satellite loop shows a cut-off upper low over extreme southwest Arizona. Despite the high moisture content and decent instability of 1500-3000 J/KG, there doesn't appear to be a short- wave disturbance indicated on satellite or in the models, so lift for showers and storms will be somewhat lacking compared to yesterday. Overnight, some low clouds may move into the I-10 corridor region, but otherwise expecting mostly clear skies with lows in the low 70s. Wednesday looks dry with some upper ridging building in and moisture decreasing a little.
TFJ A cold front has moved through the forecast area early this morning with little or no precipitation. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front this morning. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s in most areas.
With a fairly dry airmass in place across the region today, only a few scattered clouds have developed as the airmass continues to warm beneath a rather flat mid level ridge.
140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Current water vapor showing a strong mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas/northwest MN. This was pushing a cold front across MN with radar showing some showers and few storms firing along it. Breezy west winds and cooler conditions expected for Wednesday in the wake of the low and cold front. With lingering cooler cyclonic flow aloft, could see a few pop-up showers across northern WI. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for clear and cool conditions.
Mid/upper level ridging will hold over Florida through much of the period with an inverted trough/low drifting east of the peninsula during the weekend.
Slightly cooler and drier air continues to slowly filter into the area behind a cold front. The pattern over the central high plains region will undergo a transition as the westerly flow aloft east of the Rockies turns southwesterly and a large scale trough deepens over the far western U.
By 15z pretty much the entire region had finally climbed into the lower to mid 80s. Highs still should approach the lower 90s this afternoon and with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s the max heat index readings will be in the mid 90s. But there is some evidence that enough moisture could make its way to the western periphery of the 850mb Bermuda ridge extension to give somewhat of a chance of rain over the weekend. The GFS starts to lean more to a climo output past 132 hours, so its not very surprising to see it showing a relatively strong cold front approaching by 240 hours.
Same general pattern thru Wed eve with pops confined to nrn sections of the area along elevated trough boundary. Positioning of elongated upper ridge has enhanced low lvl easterly flow across southern portions of area and cutting off gulf flow, reducing overnight low lvl cloud cover and restricting mainly to ne TX, in addition to erasing sea breeze activity.
1146 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 07z surface analysis had low over northern MB with trailing cold front into central WY. Today, dry cold front slices through the CWA.
The mid-levels of the atmosphere remain warm as high pressure continues its hold over the southern states. Wednesday will be hot and dry again as the mid-upper level ridge remains over the southern states.
1152 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Cold front will slide farther south of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure rebuilds over the area tonight through midweek. Quick clearing behind the front and breezy NW winds will bring a warm afternoon, but slightly cooler and w/lower RH values, courtesy of breezy downslope flow and modest CAA. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Clear sky/light winds will provide good radiating conditions tonight, as high pressure becomes centered just W of the CWA. Cooler with lows 55-60F range inland /low-mid 60s near the immediate coast. Still mostly sunny/less humid on Wed with highs in the low-mid 80s, except 70s immediate coast. Slightly warmer Wed night (w/ a light south breeze). Lows mainly in the low-mid 60s.
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper trough continued to dig into the Northern Plains today, pulling northwesterly flow over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front will drift southeast through southeast Minnesota, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and across central Kansas. southerly low level flow will pull moisture and warmer temperatures into the the region ahead of the front. Temperatures have climbed into the the low to mid 80s.
A broad longwave trough will set up over the region overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, ushering in a dry cold frontal passage Wednesday with humidities rising slightly and temperatures dropping about 5 to 10 degrees in its wake.
Still expect storms to develop in the next few hours along the Highway 56 corridor. The tornado potential is not zero due to the high dewpoints, but low level shear is far from ideal for tornadoes. Pops will remain the highest across the SE counties in closer proximity to the theta-e axis.
154 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Current water vapor satellite across the west displays a closed ULL over southern AZ with a weak ridge extending back over Texas.
Meanwhile, sunshine continues to warm us into the low and mid 80s. High pressure will keep us dry through most of the day on Wednesday.
114 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure ridging into the region from the Ohio River Valley will bring a light to moderate northwest breeze to the District today, along with noticeably cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A stationary front will gradually washout across the southern South Carolina Midlands into central Georgia tonight as weak low pressure meanders in the Vidalia-Statesboro corridor. A rather quiet albeit hot pattern is in store due to a persistent deep-layered ridge.
Dew points dropped overnight behind a weak cold front, too. High pressure has slid just north of the area leading to northerly winds and mainly clear skies for the terminals.
Freezing levels around 7500ft agl, with low topped convection expected to around 20kft per Equilibrium levels, are in line with the the Donovan 1 inch diameter hail indicator.
Deep layer ridging is centered to our west, with winds aloft mostly from the north.
139 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 The 18Z surface map shows a cold front that has dropped into northern MS to BHM and ATL.
/issued 643 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ Widespread low cloud stratus layer to start the day, though high clouds still are blocking much of the view near KCDS. While much of our guidance does not convect storms this afternoon, some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and the NAM do.
General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. A weak cold front has moved into the area this morning, but moisture will remain too limited for any rainfall. Upper ridge shifting slightly south with resulting zonal flow. Max temperatures above normal in the low 90s.
420 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 TODAY and TONIGHT: Another warm and sunny day across South Florida as deep layer ridging remains firmly in place. With the low-level component weakening just a bit compared to yesterday, visible satellite imagery reveals an evident sea breeze boundary this afternoon propagating inland from the east coast. However, stronger ridging aloft, coupled with a significantly drier airmass in place, showers will have a difficult time initiating.
It's looking more likely to see only one round of convection with the main cold front this evening. However, nothing has shown to be initiating via GOES-East meso-sector in central Iowa and have lower confidence the CWA there will be storms until past 23z when the cold front lights up across northwest Iowa. However, as mentioned the window for severe storms is limited as the low level shear begins to weaken past 02z and so does the significant instability as the line moves southeast.
A deep and cold trough will set up over the Great Basin beginning late week bringing widespread precipitation to the region. Current forecast appears to be right on track with the high pressure system right overhead.
1008 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Warm and dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the day with high pressure centered over the northern gulf and dry air in the mid and upper levels.
254 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 As the upper trough shifts eastward this evening, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the forecast area tonight and on Wednesday.
A cold front has dropped south through north AL, allowing northerly flow to develop. A cooler trend should be evident tonight under generally clear skies and light winds. Lows should fall into the mid 50s to around 60 by daybreak Wednesday - a good 10-15 degrees cooler than they are so far. Although the seemingly permanent upper level ridge (now displaced over the Gulf Coast) will move somewhat more to the south over the next few days.
High pressure situated over the region will keep mainly dry conditions and light winds through the period. /issued 1008 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ Warm and dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the day with high pressure centered over the northern gulf and dry air in the mid and upper levels.
Upper heights have diminished today as a weak upper low moves into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This feature has allowed for the better coverage of precip and for temperatures to be cooler today. In fact, temperatures at this time today compared to yesterday are about 1-4 degrees cooler for most sites. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to middle 70s. For tomorrow, moisture values are expected to drop off as the upper ridge slowly builds back into region.
There is a small amount of instability 500-1000 J/kg developing according to the SPC meso page, mainly along the Highway 2 corridor. Any convection will shift off to the east later tonight as the upper trough moves into the upper MS valley. Wednesday night should be fairly quiet with northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough, with lows in the 40s. A strengthening H5 low, in the Hudson Bay region, will serve to bring cooler temperatures southward into the northern plains.
The 18Z surface map shows a cold front that has dropped into northern MS to BHM and ATL.
The cold front will finally make it through the area by midnight tonight.
stout ridging was centered over Apalachee Bay. This should keep low temperatures slightly warmer than last night, with upper 60s expected at most inland locations, ranging to the mid 70s at the coast. Ridging aloft may slowly migrate southward on Wednesday, resulting in a slightly deeper west-southwest flow locally. The slightly deeper westerly flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze slightly to the early to mid afternoon hours, resulting in highs reaching the lower 90s all the way to the beaches.
There is a weak cold front in the Northern High Plains that will backdoor into northeast Colorado after midnight tonight. The northeast plains will see slightly cooler readings where the cool airmass is a little deeper.
/issued 154 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ Current water vapor satellite across the west displays a closed ULL over southern AZ with a weak ridge extending back over Texas.
A cold front bringing northerly winds will enter northern Oklahoma late in the TAF period. For tomorrow, a hot day is expected with a low-level thermal ridge ahead of a cold front. The associated cold front will enter northern Oklahoma with a chance for showers/storms late afternoon into the evening hours. The highest chance will be across northeast Oklahoma, where the cap will be weaker.
654 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 The front stalled in south Arkansas will move back to the north tonight as a warm front.
939 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Evening surface analysis had a weak nearly stationary boundary close the Highway 82. The mid-levels of the atmosphere remain warm as high pressure continues its hold over the southern states. Wednesday will be hot and dry again as the mid-upper level ridge remains over the southern states.
623 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper trough continued to dig into the Northern Plains today, pulling northwesterly flow over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front will drift southeast through southeast Minnesota, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and across central Kansas. southerly low level flow will pull moisture and warmer temperatures into the the region ahead of the front. Temperatures have climbed into the the low to mid 80s.
738 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a dry air mass continuing to hold over the region under stacked ridging, which has kept the weather pattern rather quiet today. Slightly more humid air is forecast to build back in to the Florida Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, resulting in a bit warmer temperatures, but rain free conditions are expected to hold through the next several days. High pressure over the northern Gulf will shift slowly east through the rest of the week, with generally northerly winds turning to easterly/southeasterly by late in the week.
543 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Sunny skies prevailed over the region this afternoon as a mid- level low pressure system moved to the northern Gulf of California (GOC). This positioning left eastern Utah and western Colorado under the col between the low to the south and the westerlies of the northern stream. The low circulation over the northern GOC doesn't move appreciably according to model consensus so expect conditions on Wednesday will be quite similar to today's.
Dew points range from the low 50s to low 60s, lowest near the Tennessee River. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer, but clouds and showers should keep conditions a bit more tolerable.
However, the GFS and recent HRRR runs show a few sprinkles developing during the early overnight hours over the Lower Keys along a wind shift boundary (land breeze induced from the mainland) that will settle southwest. Weak high pressure will remain situated across Florida.
910 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure will continue to build overhead into tonight, before shifting offshore on Wednesday, resulting in continued dry weather.
529 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 As the upper trough shifts eastward this evening, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the forecast area tonight and on Wednesday.
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. There could also be some mid 60s in the cooler spots across the Francis Marion National Forecast. A rather quiet albeit hot pattern is in store due to a persistent deep-layered ridge.
Mid afternoon conditions across this forecast area indicate a cold front has swept through most of the area and remains draped north to south across far eastern zones. Otherwise, expecting an area of high pressure to gradually move in from the west overnight the day on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and more sunshine is expected.