Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
840 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Showers and thunderstorms in middle and southwest TN persist within a narrow ridge of convective instability ahead of the cold front. The first part of the upcoming work week looks to be fairly dry and warm over the TN Valley as a ridge continues to build eastward and towards the area. Subsidence associated with the ridge, along with dry air filtering within northwest surface flow, will keep rain chances very low.
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Upper level ridging continues to be the dominate feature in the upper levels, though as a British Columbia upper low advances across southern Canada, the ridge flattens and becomes suppressed to our south. Despite the ridge, showers and thunderstorms have impacted the Sandhills through north central Nebraska today as a LLJ and increasing moisture targeted the area. Attention is then placed on the High Plains and southwest Nebraska as the latest CAMS show additional development there. It appears the models have trended slightly faster with the arrival of the cold front, with an attendant warm front well north of the CWA before storm storm initiation. Though the models are still ambitious with storm development, first off the High Plains as early as 18z, with upscale growth to a convective complex impacting our area after 21z.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 90 69 94 69 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 88 67 92 68 / 30 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 66 93 67 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 85 63 89 65 / 50 10 0 10 0.
620 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 High pressure over the region tonight will allow for clearing skies and light winds. High pressure is still around for Monday and another repeat of today is expected with scattered cumulus starting mid/late morning. Forecast Confidence is high: High pressure overhead tonight will gradually slide to the east Monday into Monday night. Light and variable winds tonight will become light out of the south tomorrow on the back side of the high. Temps will likely be just a little warmer tomorrow than today. Clouds will begin to increase from the west later Monday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These clouds along with continued southerly winds will result in overnight lows a little warmer than what is expected for tonight.
Still expecting convection to develop along the boundary approaching from the west/northwest overnight when the low level jet develops. Will keep POPs a bit lower in the afternoon because of this, then increase them into the high chance category Monday night. Lows on Monday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/ The dangerous heat remains at the center of the forecast as temperatures continue to soar beneath the eastern flank of a strong upper level anticyclone. However, more robust thunderstorm activity just getting going over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico will propagate east-southeastward into Texas this evening.
(This evening through Monday) There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight, especially over northwest and north-central Oklahoma as storms exit the high plains and move towards our area.
656 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A trough is set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple associated waves. There is a ridge positioned over the central portion of the CONUS with a subtle wave along the Front Range and trough over western Canada/Pacific Northwest. Drier and cooler air following the cold frontal passage of yesterday made a definite difference in how it felt outside. Afternoon temperatures across Kansas were generally around 90 degrees which is close to the seasonal normal values which are in the lower 90s.
The TN Valley remains situated between a trough along the East Coast and a ridge over the Plains. Overnight lows tonight will be seasonably mild as temps fall into the lower 70s. The first part of the upcoming work week looks to be fairly dry and warm over the TN Valley as a ridge continues to build eastward and towards the area. Subsidence associated with the ridge, along with dry air filtering within northwest surface flow, will keep rain chances very low.
Today and tonight will feature an upper trough over the eastern one third of the CONUS with a northwesterly flow component over the central Plains working into another upper level trough into the Pacific Northwest region. An anticyclone remains over the Desert Southwest region.
A small cumulus field has begun developing in Daniels County into southern Saskatchewan as the cold front slowly pushes to the east, so it seems that, as of right now, things are on track still for showers and thunderstorms along the North Dakota border tonight. By the weekend, another trough and associated boundary passage will lend to a return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds: WNW at 10-20 kts as the cold front passes through the region.
Light offshore flow will promote sunny days and warmer afternoon temperatures for the coastal communities.
Afternoon thunderstorm activity over the high terrain will continue over the next few hours before a gradually ending this evening. Other areas have been less lucky remaining in the mid 80s to upper 90s along the high terrain and many areas in the lower elevations topping 100 F. Thunderstorm chances will decrease on Monday with the highest chances in the White Mountain Region and along the AZ/NM border. A trough deepening off the west coast will increase gradients across the area as high pressure remains over the southwest.
Expecting scattered showers in the region the rest of this evening with a slight shift east with time as trough shifts east. Frieders Surface cold front was difficult to discern this afternoon and was likely moving through the area in pieces, with radar/satellite showing a boundary pushing into NE Yellowstone County, and two different boundaries in Big Horn County. Monday will be much cooler under cyclonic flow and jet divergence.
724 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A drier and slightly cooler airmass continues to spread into the region from the north with a few gusts over 20 mph this afternoon. On Monday, winds will gradually shift back to southerly as high pressure moves eastward into the Ohio Valley and low pressure deepens over the TX/OK Panhandle. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions are expected with temperatures just a few degrees warmer than today. Our area remains on the periphery of a persistent upper level ridge over Texas and New Mexico through much of the work week. Keeping an eye on a stronger upper level trough that is expected to move eastward across the central U.
A ridge of high pressure centered near the Desert Southwest will remain in control of our weather through the end of the week. The ridge will weaken some but temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal with continued dry weather. A strong ridge of high pressure centered near the Desert Southwest region is protruding westward across southern and central California.
A slight cool down will accompany a dry cold front early in the work week before temperatures return to hot by mid work week.
405 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A trough is set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple associated waves. There is a ridge positioned over the central portion of the CONUS with a subtle wave along the Front Range and trough over western Canada/Pacific Northwest. Drier and cooler air following the cold frontal passage of yesterday made a definite difference in how it felt outside. Afternoon temperatures across Kansas were generally around 90 degrees which is close to the seasonal normal values which are in the lower 90s.
Expect showers and tstms to initially develop over the higher terrain of northeast NM and southeast CO, then track southeast across the fcst area late this afternoon through tonight. The greatest threat for severe storms is expected to be across the northwest zones up against the higher terrain in sern CO and northeast NM. The upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to meander around the area through most of this week.
Once a MCS (or two) becomes established it should move southeast late tonight along the low level moisture axis, which is oriented fairly closely to the cloud- bearing deep tropospheric flow field, so at least one MCS should survive well into the night. On Monday, a deeper leeside trough will develop across eastern Colorado, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds from the southeast. The mid tropospheric flow will be out of the due west on Monday, as a polar jet stream trough moves across southern Canada along/just north of the International Border.
1024 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 High pressure will build into and through the Ohio Valley through the middle of the work week with dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Hot and humid weather will build back into the area along with a chance of thunderstorms as the high moves off to the southeast toward the end of the week. Convection has pushed through the region and high pressure will build in. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 60s. With high pressure building in and a capping inversion seen in forecast soundings, will probably be our first completely dry day without any storms on radar in quite some time. Seasonable highs in the lower to middle 80s and nighttime lows around 60 - which can't be argued with in mid July.
Expanded the low precip chances across much of ern OK 06-12z.
The upper level trough axis will continue swinging into the region tonight. Cannot rule out a few showers making it into the northwestern portion of the forecast area tonight associated with the trough. Overnight lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Long wave trough from the Great Lakes through the eastern seaboard. A short wave trough will be moving thru possibly early in the day. Temps in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure will then build across the area for much of the work week, with a cold front approaching by the end of the week. Conditions should stay mostly dry overnight, but can't rule out an isolated shower while the main mid-upper level trough axis swings through. Locations to the west of the Blue Ridge that saw appreciable rainfall this afternoon/evening will have the greatest chance to see fog develop. By around midday tomorrow, the main trough axis will be situated off to our south and east. Meanwhile an upper level low will be located well off to our north-northwest over the Great Lakes. This should place our area in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the mid-upper level trough axis. With the trough axis past, the remainder of the short term period looks dry and fairly quiet.
Moisture will increase on Monday with the approach of an upper trough which will produce scattered to numerous showers/storms from the west during the afternoon and early evening.
616 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A rather nice day for mid July for this part of the country with highs only in the low to mid 80s. We can thank the high pressure that moved into the area last night leaving us with N-NE surface winds. Temperatures won't increase too much, but will get back into the lower 90s, outside of N central Missouri which will stay in the 80s. As the upper level ridge breaks down over the southern Rockies lee-side troughing will develop over the Southern Plains.
Outflow from earlier convection over the offshore Gulf waters did spark rainfall across parts of the Lower Keys during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but shower activity has now ceased across the entire area. Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, and winds on land are mostly from the southwest to west at 5 mph or less. Surface analysis shows broad cyclonic flow across our region, due to a lengthy trough extending from the Northeast United States southward into Florida. Aloft, water vapor imagery suggests that the Atlantic subtropical ridge is beginning to nudge westward into our region, with the influence of troughing over the eastern CONUS starting to diminish.
221 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A ridge of high pressure centered near the Desert Southwest will remain in control of our weather through the end of the week. The ridge will weaken some but temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal with continued dry weather. A strong ridge of high pressure centered near the Desert Southwest region is protruding westward across southern and central California.
Surface analysis this evening places a weak cold front just south of the I-40 corridor. KNQA WSR-88D radar trends show isolated to perhaps scattered showers/thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front. Latest short term model trends including CAM solutions indicate this weak line of convection sill continue to push southeast through North Mississippi over the next 3-4 hours with rain chances diminishing as the cold front pushes through the area. The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Louisville, Kentucky and southwest through Kennett, Missouri and back through Walnut Ridge, Arkansas.
303 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Surface cold front was difficult to discern this afternoon and was likely moving through the area in pieces, with radar/satellite showing a boundary pushing into NE Yellowstone County, and two different boundaries in Big Horn County. Monday will be much cooler under cyclonic flow and jet divergence.
1040 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A weak trough will bring showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to portions of the area this evening and tonight.
High pressure over the region tonight will allow for clearing skies and light winds. High pressure is still around for Monday and another repeat of today is expected with scattered cumulus starting mid/late morning. Forecast Confidence is high: High pressure overhead tonight will gradually slide to the east Monday into Monday night. Light and variable winds tonight will become light out of the south tomorrow on the back side of the high. Temps will likely be just a little warmer tomorrow than today. Clouds will begin to increase from the west later Monday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These clouds along with continued southerly winds will result in overnight lows a little warmer than what is expected for tonight.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the weather pattern and setup for heat really doesn't change with high pressure both at the surface and aloft dominating. The expansive mid/upper ridge anchored across the southwest to south central U. /northern Mexico area early in the week will start to extend east to east-northeast across the lower Mississippi valley to the interior southeast U.
Upper level trough which has been persistent over the area will begin to push to the east today with weak surface cold front advancing towards the area with low level flow out of the SW. Seasonably hot conditions expected once again with highs in the low to mid 90s. This evening the trough axis will shift over the coast and any lingering convection will likely dissipate shortly after sunset as rising 500mb heights promote subsidence. Some lingering mid level clouds and low level moisture will keep lows in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday and Tuesday night: A weak trough remains across the region.
Deep Canadian upper trough continues to shift east with an associated sfc cold front now settling south into the region. Cold front will settle into the area today with breezy NNW winds developing behind the front, esp on the SD plains. Much cooler day expected Tues, with most places seeing 70s for highs, 50s and 60s in the Black Hills.
A longwave trough has begun to dig over the PACNW this morning. Winds will increase once again over the forecast area, as a cold front approaches from the west. The weak cold front will begin to move through northwestern portions this evening, moving southeastward through the overnight hours. Highs Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler for many locations, as a result of the front. Instability near the front and trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms for the north counties Monday afternoon. Mainly dry zonal flow will set up for the latter half of the week, with a gradual warming trend due in part to a ridge to our south.
At the start of the period, an area of high pressure persists across the southern Plains with upper troughing across the northern half of the CONUS.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the cooler air associated with this disturbance linger most of the day.
A weak cold front will push through the region today.
Meanwhile, moderate northwest to west winds continue across much of south central WA and parts of the Lower Columbia Basin, elsewhere breezes are generally light. Region currently under influence of upper level trough passing over with cooler afternoon temperatures. Upper level trough will begin to exit the region tonight as an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific pushes east, placing the forecast area under a dry northwest flow aloft.
Storms are expected to develop in central Nebraska along the cold front and track east into northeastern nebraska late this evening. Any storm potential will depend largely on how far south the cold front tracks Monday night. Locations behind the cold front will see a rare July day with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, while locations closer to the front will be near 90 degrees.
An area of high pressure at H5 continues to sit over parts of west Texas, New Mexico, and eastern Arizona. Winds will be light but still downsloping out of the southwest for most of the afternoon aiding in the warming process under the high pressure. Tonight perturbations riding the ridge will introduce some showers and thunderstorms to the area.
These veering winds should support slight warmer temperatures than what we saw yesterday, in line with most guidance. 850mb temperatures are expected to climb possibly as high as 22C across central MO supporting surface temps in the low 90s.
The main clusters of storms should depart the area to the south and southeast by the 03Z timeframe, with cooler temperatures in the 50s filtering in behind the storms.
Widespread high level clouds associated with an upper trough will move through the region tonight. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with highs 5-10 degrees below normal. A dry cold front continues to progress through the forecast area, bringing strengthening northwesterly wind and increased cloud cover. Cooler temperatures expected across the forecast area on Monday, with warming temperatures beginning to return on Tuesday under a dry northwest flow.
256 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure in control through much of the week. A SPS may be needed in the next few hours to highlight the low visibility impacts heading into the morning rush hour. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s with 50s across the mountains. H5 s/w ridge axis is prog to be to the west of the CWA on Tuesday, and thus only a minor increase in afternoon high temps (from Monday) should occur.
243 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A strong, summer pattern continues to dominate the region with a near continuous ridge that wants to remain centered over parts of Western Texas and Eastern New Mexico. As such, the near constant train of short wave troughs that seem counter the ridge to the south are struggling to pull in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois for tonight and Monday, bringing light wind, mostly clear skies, and seasonable temperatures. Dry but warmer conditions are expected for Tuesday. Latest analysis depicted the 500 mb trof axis shifting through southeast IL. At the surface an elongated ridge axis extended from 1020 mb high over Hudson Bay south into the western Gulf. Ridging at the surface and aloft will migrate east across the area tonight and Monday. Lows should drop to the low 60s tonight with highs in the mid 80s tomorrow. Dry weather will persist through the day Tuesday as the ridge gradually shifts east of the area. Height falls will be ongoing over the upper Midwest ahead of a digging low amplitude longwave trof. This is expected to push a cold front southeast towards the IA/WI area late Tuesday.
Temps over the region were in the 90s across most of the plains with temps near 100 over the lower Ark rvr valley. Tomorrow will once again be quite hot with readings in the 100 degree range across the lower Ark rvr valley. With the boundary moving onto the Raton Mesa, temps will be 4 to 8F cooler than on Monday across the region.
1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A drier and slightly cooler airmass continues to spread into the region from the north with a few gusts over 20 mph this afternoon. On Monday, winds will gradually shift back to southerly as high pressure moves eastward into the Ohio Valley and low pressure deepens over the TX/OK Panhandle. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions are expected with temperatures just a few degrees warmer than today. Our area remains on the periphery of a persistent upper level ridge over Texas and New Mexico through much of the work week. Keeping an eye on a stronger upper level trough that is expected to move eastward across the central U.
These storms will once again last through the night ending before sunrise Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front that will push through later in the afternoon. Morning lows will once again be mainly in the 60s and pushing into the low 70s into south central portions of the state. The cold front tied to a polar jet stream trough up north will push south across Kansas on Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 94 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 92 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 93 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 63 89 65 92 / 10 0 10 0 10.
The upper low traversing the forecast area has started it's transition from positively tilted to a more neutral tilt. As the upper low continues it's axis re-orientation it will drift south and east of the area allowing convection to diminish by 00z. The cooler air on the backside of the departing upper low will help overnight low temperatures reach about 5 degrees cooler than this morning. Heights aloft gradually rise over the course of the day on Monday which will allow high temperatures to reach into the lower 80s. Upper ridge axis builds over the area on Tuesday to prolong the dry and warming trend across the forecast area.
Afternoon thunderstorm activity over the high terrain will continue over the next few hours before gradually ending this evening. Other areas have been less lucky remaining in the mid 80s to upper 90s along the high terrain and many areas in the lower elevations topping 100 F. Thunderstorm chances will decrease on Monday with the highest chances in the White Mountain Region and along the AZ/NM border. A trough deepening off the west coast will increase gradients across the area as high pressure remains over the southwest.
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A slow-moving upper level trough will swing over Pennsylvania early this week. A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week. However, falling heights ahead of approaching upper trough axis will support the chance of an isolated shower late in the day, mainly over the northern tier counties. Expect fair weather tonight with patchy late night fog, as high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass build in from the Grt Lks. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the lowest minimum temperatures we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts upper ridging over much of the middle CONUS. This will continue to nudge further east today with southwest flow increasing by this afternoon as an upper trough located in southwest Canada swings into the Northern Plains states. High temperatures today will be a tad bit warmer than yesterday, with values ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Upper ridging will slide east of the area tonight, with the aforementioned upper trough and it's associated surface cold front approaching from the west, bringing our next chance of widespread showers and storms going into Tuesday.