Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR conditions will prevail most of today before a cold front moves through and flight categories lift to VFR levels. Have some chance PoPs in the forecast fore the remainder of the morning but that may be a little generous in the end as most guidance has more organized, albeit still scattered in nature, convection attendant to the cold frontal passage this afternoon. By early this evening, the cold front will be nearing or crossing the Mississippi river and drier air will begin to filter into the region. The trough driving the cold front today is currently over the CO/NE/KS border region, but will eventually form a cutoff low over the NE/IA border by late tonight before diving southward through Missouri on Tuesday.
An upper level trough will continue to move away from the region today. High pressure will follow for most of the upcoming week.
350 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Current surface map places deepening low pressure over eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof through eastern South Dakota into central North Dakota. Water vapor shows mid/upper low over eastern Montana with next upper low beginning to cut off over southeast South Dakota. As upper low cuts off over southeast South Dakota today, lift increases across central south Dakota into north Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area for the end of the work week, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Next upper trof arrives for the weekend, bringing a chance of snow to the area.
939 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will build southward from Labrador and dominate area weather through Tuesday.
A cold front will advance across the forecast area overnight. The surface cold front associated with the low pressure will swing southeastward and is expected to move through the CWA during the overnight hours accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Convection will become more widespread, with increasing chances for thunder, during the afternoon and evening hours as forcing for ascent increases along and ahead of the cold front. Precipitation chances should diminish quickly after the passage of the cold front which is expected to exit the CWA by mid-to-late morning Tuesday.
A cold front is poised to move into and through northeast Oklahoma terminals early in the period with winds veering around to northwesterly behind the front. /Issued 316 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ Cold front currently located over central Kansas will sweep through the region today with gusty northwest winds developing behind front. Mostly sunny skies combined with warmer downslope northwest flow should allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s in the red flag areas with RH values falling into the 15-20 percent range. Speed max rotating around backside of upper low over the Great Lakes will allow northwest winds to increase into the 40-45 mph range Tuesday afternoon.
802 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather until low pressure returns precipitation chances Tuesday. Mainly sunny and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. High pressure is expected to slide E of the region tonight. Low pressure is progged to advance slowly out of the Midwest late tonight and Tuesday, with an associated occluded front progged to cross the OH Valley region.
gov/missoula for locations and further details on the highlights. Snow will have a hard time sticking to the roads for more than a hour or so this afternoon, due to the higher sun angle this time of the year.
740 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will bring fair skies and dry weather Monday.
North drainage flow will become onshore late this morning and afternoon as daytime mixing resumes and ridge axis pushes east. North winds will veer to northeast by late morning through afternoon as diurnal mixing resumes and low level ridge shifts east.
1039 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will remain in place today. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, followed by high pressure.
611 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east today.
532 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 South winds around 10 knots this morning to increase to around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region by 05/18Z. Ahead of the cold front, MVFR ceilings to prevail, becoming VFR behind the front after 06/00Z. Meanwhile, upper low across the High Plains continues to push ewd, with the associated cold front now encroaching upon the TX and OK panhandles. As the upper low and cold front push ewd today, additional convection is fcst to develop and spread sewd across our region. Cold front will push e of the region by mid evening, bringing any ongoing severe threat effectively to an end, with rain ending prior to sunrise.
854 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 15z surface analysis had deepening low over northwest IA with inverted trough into central ND and southern MT. Current surface map places deepening low pressure over eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof through eastern South Dakota into central North Dakota. Water vapor shows mid/upper low over eastern Montana with next upper low beginning to cut off over southeast South Dakota. As upper low cuts off over southeast South Dakota today, lift increases across central south Dakota into north Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area for the end of the work week, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Next upper trof arrives for the weekend, bringing a chance of snow to the area.
Deep- layer saturation into ice-producing thermal layers will continue to spread from south to north with that intensifying frontogenesis and will yield a quick change-over from ongoing freezing drizzle to heavy snow through the mid-morning. Currently, somewhat of a lull with a dry slot across southwest and south central ND, and light freezing drizzle northwest. Both the NAM/GFS show strong synoptic scale ascent atop low level frontogenesis, both overlapping the surface boundary/inverted trough today.
935 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east today.
514 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will build southward from Labrador and dominate area weather through Tuesday.
/issued 413 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A cold front across west Texas this morning will move into central Texas late today. The weak cold front will approach deep south Texas late this evening. High tempeatures Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the wake of the front.
638 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will build southward from Labrador and dominate area weather through Tuesday.
540 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather until low pressure returns precipitation chances Tuesday. Mainly sunny and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. High pressure is expected to slide E of the region tonight. Low pressure is progged to advance slowly out of the Midwest late tonight and Tuesday, with an associated occluded front progged to cross the OH Valley region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 47 62 38 / 30 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 46 60 37 / 0 80 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 58 46 60 37 / 0 70 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 41 56 35 / 0 60 60 40.
1054 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure is extending southward from the southeast coast to north/central Florida. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures are climbing into the lower to middle 70s. The morning local sounding showed a slow but steady increase to the moisture in the lowest levels, but we remain very dry overall. The winds in the lowest 3000 feet also slackened over the past 12 hours, and KBYX VWP signatures show that the 1000 foot winds have diminished even further from when that balloon was launched a few hours ago. Although winds are slackening as expected, there is a continuous long period north/northeasterly swell driven by the strong low pressure system northeast of the U.
A cold front was located along a line from near CNM to Andrews with imminent arrival at MAF. The dryline had made it about as far as west as a Gail to Midland/Odessa to Fort Stockton line but by 3am CST, it had already started to push back east as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The cold front will move through Southeast New Mexico before sunrise then through the remainder of West Texas by mid to late morning. High temperatures will be closer to normal for early March which will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday! This front will shove low level moisture to the east today and the dry/cooler air looks to stick around through mid week thanks to a secondary cold front Tuesday.
640 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas through today. A warm front will approach southeastern NC Tuesday, ahead of a wave of low pressure that will track east across SC Tuesday night.
A weak upper ridge off the coast will slowly spread into Western Washington on today, with a decreasing trend on showers through the day.
Late in the period, a cold front will approach from the west with showers and a few thunderstorms getting close to KDHN by 12z Tuesday.
1040 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will provide one more day of sunshine then the weather gets active the remainder of the week. High pressure is expected to slide E of the region tonight. Low pressure is progged to advance slowly out of the Midwest late tonight and Tuesday, with an associated occluded front progged to cross the OH Valley region.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A cold front across west Texas this morning will move into central Texas late today. The weak cold front will approach deep south Texas late this evening. High tempeatures Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the wake of the front.
The highest amount of 11 inches occurred near Portland North Dakota. After this band moves thru the LoW region the second or third bands will likely not make it into LoW region so coord with DLH and dropped LoW county from advisory. This band will continue to move NNW and as anticipated a larger area of precipitation incl thunderstorms in eastern half of SD on the north and east side of low pressure in eastern Nebraska/SE South Dakota will spread north and then northwest thru SE ND into central ND into the morning and aftn. Northwest flow aloft develops over the Northern Plains as the upper level low impacting the region during the short term moves to the east. Another upper low interacts with the lead low ejecting out of the Northern Plains.
We're a solid 10 degrees away from the high and with cloud cover and showers, I don't think we'll quite get to the forecast highs.
Despite a cooler air mass moving in behind the front, it's very dry.
The surface cold front associated with the low pressure will swing southeastward and is expected to move through the CWA during the overnight hours accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Convection will become more widespread, with increasing chances for thunder, during the afternoon and evening hours as forcing for ascent increases along and ahead of the cold front. Precipitation chances should diminish quickly after the passage of the cold front which is expected to exit the CWA by mid-to-late morning Tuesday.
At the surface, low is centered over north central KS near the Nebraska border with cold front extending from this low into sw KS. Upper low is expected to shift east for Tue and current indications are that pressure gradient will actually tighten for Tue setting the stage for even stronger winds with great mixing once again expected. The low will lift slowly NE, then N, across Wrn IA today. The MVFR cigs covering SE KS will be scoured from these areas by 15Z as the cold front surges through. The higher speeds are expected to be across central KS. Afternoon RH values will be in the 15%-20% range with the lower values west of I-135. RH values will also be slightly higher as they range from 20% to 30% with the lower values again west of I-135.
A weak weather disturbance in northwest flow aloft will bring scattered snow showers to the area this afternoon followed by drier conditions through mid- week as an upper level ridge builds over the area. Low pressure over the Dakotas continues to bring gusty surface winds to eastern portions of north-central MT this morning.
Rain chances increase late tonight as a cold front approaches the area. High pressure will continue to weaken and slide eastward today as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly winds will allow temps to warm to above normal today, in the low to mid 70s.
356 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 A stg upper level low will develop over the cntrl plains today and then move eastward tonight. Over the higher terrain, cross-sections still show moisture lingering thru the day with favorable orographic flow, thus will continue to some -shsn thru the aftn. There will also be some blowing snow over the higher passes. As for highs this aftn, readings will be much cooler over nern CO as temps only rise into the 40's. Over the higher terrain cross-sections continue to show moisture overnight so will keep in a chc of -shsn. Late tonight a mtn wave may develop and hi res data shows some potential for a brief period of high winds to occur in the normal windy areas of the higher foothills in the 09z-12z period.
A strong closed upper low over south central ID this aftn will move into southwestern MT by 12z, with the flow aloft transitioning fm southwesterly to westerly over CO. Otherwise gusty westerly winds in the mountains, foothills and along the Cheyenne Ridge on Tuesday. Cooler as well on Tuesday, with the warmest 700 mb temperatures going from 12-17. 5c this aftn to 5-10c Tuesday aftn, so 12-18 degrees cooler at the sfc. A Flood Advisory continues for the Cache La Poudre at the canyon mouth another day, then cooler weather should slow runoff a bit. A weak upper trough is progged to push eastward across the CWA Tuesday evening.
The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains parked to the SE of the region. Again the biggest issue will be heavy rain given the higher PWATs and continued deep warm layer. Amplified western trough-eastern ridge pattern will shift to opposite extremes, allowing for a low amplitude mean trough to set up across the eastern CONUS.
A dry cold front moved across Arizona today and the winds have decreased this evening. With very dry air in place, temperatures will be below normal tonight, with freezing temperatures in the mountains Tuesday morning. Starting Tuesday afternoon, expect a return to warmer temperatures with much lighter wind. Expect pockets of freezing temperatures above 6000 feet. Windy and cooler than normal conditions continue across northern Arizona this afternoon as a cold front pushes eastward across the region. Some of the higher elevation areas above 6500 feet will likely see below freezing temperatures.
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ The upper level low which was over East Texas for the last couple of days has become poorly defined and does not show up well in water vapor imagery.
However, these storms are expected to have trouble maintaining themselves as they move off the higher terrain to the east into an area of stronger capping. (Tuesday night through Monday) Overall, this period can be characterized as hot and dry, as upper level ridging dominates. This ridge will get suppressed into Mexico through the middle of the week as an upper low moves across the Upper Plains into Canada. The aforementioned upper ridge will gradually re-exert itself across the area over the weekend, thus limiting rain chances even more.
Low pressure area will gradually move northeast of the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. High pressure will start to build over the region for Tuesday.
Then, Tuesday's forecast looks similar to Monday especially with the saturated environment in place and weak ridging centered over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a longwave trough over the Intermountain West will begin moving across the NW flank of the prevailing ridge over the Southeast and Plains States. As it does so, it will push a cold front slowly southeast. This will be more important for the extended part of the forecast but worth noting the slow compression of the ridge.
Thunderstorms will end from southwest to northeast this evening with the passage of dryline from northern Colorado and strong cold front from the west. Intense upper low will track northeast into the northern Plains Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees cooler.
Heat indices varied from the low to upper 90s. Tuesday night, warm front north of the CWA and a wave riding down into the central US may lead to storms to develop across the area.
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 After a warm and mostly rain free night, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday, as a cold front pushes into the region.
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon, while rich Gulf moisture and instability was in place to the east of a dryline which was positioned from northwest Kansas to the Texas Panhandle. With the upper low remaining to the west tonight, an elevated mixed layer should suppress thunderstorm development in the forecast area.
941 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. The risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms will increase along the Georgia coast after midnight as weak low pressure develops along a sharp coastal trough that extended from the Northeast Florida coast to about 80nm east of Hilton Head.
828 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal. These clouds will help mitigate fog development despite light winds and sufficient low level moisture recovery with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Short range model guidance indicates slight strengthening of the low level SE flow across the Atlantic overnight and with the high moisture in place should see a low chance for Atlantic showers to move toward the coast from the Cape south along the east coast after midnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Prevalent mid to upper level cloud cover will keep skies mainly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Axis of high pressure ridge is forecast to sag a little south with the wind flow in the lower levels becoming southeast.
Overnight lows look on track with temps in the lower to mid 70s inland to around 80 on the coast. Mid/upper level ridge to the west remains dominant across S TX this afternoon, but is expected to shift westward as the upper low to the east of the area shifts west.
739 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal. Upper ridge center remains in place near the Carolina/Mid Atlantic coast, with upper low near the Gulf coast, providing a S to SW flow aloft which is allowing some upper level convective debris cloudiness to stream into our region. Upper ridge and associated mid level subsidence inversion, along with a dry low to mid level atmosphere, will suppress convection over most of our FA.
The low clouds will lift by mid Tuesday morning and VFR conditions will prevail for a few hours. Warm and muggy conditions will continue through the overnight hours with lows running in the lower to mid 70s. Rain chances will begin to decline from mid to late week with the upper level ridge exerting more control over the region especially over east Texas where the influence of the ridge will be stronger. Otherwise, mainly isolated diurnal convection will serve as the only relief from the heat and humidity as high temperatures creep up into the lower 90s and possibly even the mid 90s in some areas by late week into the weekend. The ridge will deflect disturbances away from the region as it orients more east-west along the Gulf coast region by this weekend.
Shear increases through the evening ahead of the low/cold front with 0-6km effective shear increasing to 40-60kt. Upper low will slide into Montana Tuesday with drier air continuing to filter into the region with breezy southwest flow. Colder 700-500 mb temps associated with the upper low will keep low to mid level lapse rates on the steep side with some showers/storms developing Tuesday afternoon. The upper low will depart into south central Canada.
545 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017 updated aviation section The cold front is just encroaching upon northeast Utah this afternoon with strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front and the parent upper level low spinning in northeast Nevada. As previously mentioned, winds will gradually die down behind the front as the colder air works in but breezy conditions can still be anticipated across the higher terrain. This will be the case again on Tuesday as the base of the upper level low swings through the region.
/issued 419 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Upper low which was over SE TX yesterday has become ill-defined and barely discernible in GOES-R imagery this afternoon, though a well defined and relatively sharp MSTR gradient remains over E TX and down into the WRN Gulf. GOES-R TPW product aligns with model data in depicting 2+ inches over the entire forecast area, as a long and steady fetch of tropical moisture continues to stream into the region around a SFC/low level ridge over the SE CONUS/WRN Atlantic. The low to mid level ridge to the east is forecast to build a bit WWD, while a ridge aloft over NRN MX/W TX builds eastward. Lows will continue in the low/mid 70s.
Upper ridge over the east coast will continue to pump warm and humid air into the Ohio Valley most of this period. A deep upper low over lifting northeast across the Rockies next couple days and east across southern Canada late week into early next will play a role here.
The eastern sections of the forecast area remained a bit drier as high pressure extended westward from the Carolinas. Weak upper troughing and a weak but persistent surface boundary across the forecast area will result in best coverage of diurnally oriented convection over the forecast area during the latter half of the work week and into the weekend. yet somewhat messy ridge pattern across the eastern 2/3rds of the country as a closed low emerges out of the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and carries on a negative tilt.
/issued 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Upper level high pressure centered in the vicinity of west central Mexico will maintain north to northeast flow aloft over deep south TX through the period as southeasterly onshore flow continues at the low levels. Showers will slowly migrate farther inland around sunrise and after before giving way to an enhanced sea breeze that will carry showers, along with some isolated thunderstorms, westward across the lower and mid valley through midday. Overnight lows will be near normal values the next two nights with high temperatures Tuesday afternoon running just a few degrees above normal from the lower 90s at the coast with mid 90s to around 103 inland.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 70 89 / 10 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 70 87 / 10 30 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 69 88 / 10 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 66 86 / 10 40 30 60.
908 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period. Maxima will be only slightly cooler than those today, with humidity leading to comparable apparent temperature. The cold front will stall overnight, draped across the region from nw to se. A broad upper trough is expected to advance across the nrn CONUS through the week, maintaining daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.