Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
342 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE RIDGING TODAY. WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND A THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN CO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OUT IN THAT AREA.
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW. BUT THE NAM IS INDICATING SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVR THAT AREA DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING. WHICH IS MOSTLY IN THE 70S OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPR TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WED NIGHT AND THU. FOR FRI A BAGGY TROF WL LIE OVR THE STATE. THE UPR TROF AND LOW WL MOVE EAST INTO KS SAT. SAT NIGHT THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL THEN HAVE DRIER WX.
OTHERWISE NO RAIN MENTIONED ELSEWHERE AS EXPECTING WEAK RIDGING AND A BIT STRONGER CAP TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY.
BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. 75 RANGE ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY.
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO ALLOW UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY.
BUT THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO FOCUS THE RAIN, WITH A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND OUT OF THE 80S FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
455 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
/ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE PERTUBATIONS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOF. LATER INTO THE NIGHT THE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS EAST AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEE THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH KEEPING A WET PATTERN GOING.
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN SWING NWD THROUGH SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS ERN IA INTO C WI BY 00Z WED.
442 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING TROUGH EAST OF AREA WITH WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWING. THINK DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GULF AND WEAK RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH DID GO A TAD WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/ THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA.
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ENTERING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REMAINS. A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF OVER ERN SD AND THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE EWD OVER SRN MN DURG THE DAY TDA. THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA SHIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SKIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER IDAHO.
445 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS OF COURSE IS MARITIME TROPICAL WITH CURRENT FLORIDA KEYS AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE RAIN.
456 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Today - Wednesday: Vorticity max which lifted out of West TX yesterday and helped generate the MCC that roared through east TX has attempted to merge with the NE/KS upper trough. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity max currently over east central KS while allowing a separate h7 vorticity max to rotate east through the NE/KS upper trough and across northern MO this afternoon. A weak cold front/convergent zone is expected to drift south through the CWA tonight and will provide additional lift for scattered convection. Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO CANADA.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE.
1159 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED A WEAK TRANSITIONAL RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
230 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1. ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MOVES EAST. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THE WEST INCREASING INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MODELS BRING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WET CONDITIONS AS WELL.
TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING. BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S.
AS WE MOVE INTO THU WE WILL MOVE UNDER S/W RIDGING BUT HGHTS WILL ACTUALLY NOT CHANGE AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT WITH PWS ABV 1. HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WE WILL MOVE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD ACTUALLY POP RATHER EARLY FRI/SAT/SUN.
LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN THE CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
657 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO RETURN BY WEEKS END RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
ON WEDNESDAY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. DEEPER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP EASTERN ZONES DRY. THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL TRACK IN EARLY EACH DAY AND SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE PACIFIC. UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER EASTERN WA EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER E WED AND THU WILL SEE THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKEN MORE.
318 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THE HIGHEST (LIKELY) POPS WILL BE FOCUSED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
640 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BUILD FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
254 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO. THE MAN AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST TO OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DETAIL AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM 997 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 1025 PLUS SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
Associated clouds will keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal for this time of year. Precipitation and winds will taper off overnight as the low pressure system weakens and gets absorbed by the broad trough centered on the West Coast.
628 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
/ISSUED 254 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY.
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS SOUTHWEST REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND ANOTHER MCV WEST OF SAN ANGELO AREA WITHIN A LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
314 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
638 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
235 AM CDT Wed May 13 2015 High pressure remained in control at the surface across the region with a clear sky, light east wind and cooler temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Coolest readings were in the eastern Ozarks where the lower dewpoints were occurring. The best precipitation will occur east of the trough axis across Texas into Oklahoma with very slight chances of rainfall over our far western CWA by late in the day.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON THURSDAY. ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL REINTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MTNS SEEING THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOMETHING OF A BREAK IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNT WITH THE TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY JUST DEPARTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST NIGHT.
554 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND EVENING RAOB DATA INDICATES A SUBTROPICAL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THIS RIDGE AXIS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT AFTERNOON INSOLATION OFFSETTING COOLER MORNING TEMPS TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
402 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
302 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.
147 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
Breezier and slightly warmer conditions are expected Wednesday throughout the region as the surface pressure gradient responds to deepening low pressure along the lee side of the Rockies, although cloud cover increasing late in the day may impede our full warming potential. Overall precipitation chances continue but are generally lower for Thursday night through the weekend as a dryline sloshes back and forth across the high-central Plains and southwest upper-level flow dominates the central CONUS. The most likely scenario will be for convection to develop in the High Plains during the afternoon - early evenings, then will build northeastward during the late evening and overnight hours, possibly reaching the forecast area after midnight each night beginning Thursday. The low-level jet will also position progressively further east each night as a deep trough over the western U.
139 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP AND CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
329 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
340 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
127 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD LAST INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
653 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN SPREADS OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
637 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 MVFR TO LOWER VFR STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BLEED INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINING SPRINKLES WITHIN EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL FADE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SAID FEATURE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF FROST OVER THE THUMB FOR SURE WHERE LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINING SPRINKLES WITHIN EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL FADE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SAID FEATURE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF FROST OVER THE THUMB FOR SURE WHERE LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
521 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL PROVIDE A DIFLUENT UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PROMOTING LEE TROUGHING.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PLAN ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DECENT PUSH OF 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND 850MB MOIST TRANSPORT. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
216 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
352 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 945 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015/ PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING/DRYING CONDITIONS FOR REST OF SHORT TERM. COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LOWS.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL IDAHO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST TODAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT LEAVING JUST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY.
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS ITS APPROACH ON THE ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY ALONG A BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH FROM ABOUT HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WHERE HIGHEST CAPES WERE POOLING.
12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN OREGON WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MANY AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WAA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOWEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN NW WI.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80, WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
448 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SETUP IS BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN 36.
Upper level low keeps moving east into southeastern Oregon tonight. Different pieces of energy associated with the low will keep moving through the Inland Northwest tonight and Wednesday.
328 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
244 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGED SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION.
558 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
MAYBE CLOUDS/VIRGA MIDDAY FOR DENVER THAN STILL A CHANCE OF A STORM ON THE BACK EDGE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.
RATHER BENIGN FORECAST PERIOD WITH A BROAD WESTWARD TILTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.