Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With high RH trapped below the inversion and the upper trof still to our west, some drizzle may fall from the low overcast tonight. By Monday, quasi-zonal flow will be established over much of the lower Ohio Valley while a rather large upper level low (ULL) spins off the California coast.
High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday.
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Mostly sunny today - Cold front brings light precipitation Monday night - A significant precipitation event likely late week --Mostly sunny today-- I expect skies to be mostly sunny today and tonight. -- Cold front brings light precipitation Monday night-- Our next precipitation event comes to us thanks to the northern branch of the polar jet.
339 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Low level warm air advection and moisture advection will combine with the upslope flow on the surface and lift aloft from an approaching short wave trough to help produce showers along with a few thunderstorms across the Panhandles today through tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms may linger across the far southeast Texas Panhandle Monday morning as another weak upper level short wave trough moves across this area. Highs on Monday will be much warmer with readings in the 60's and 70's given the added sunshine.
This has prompted the expansion of the Freezing Fog Advisory to include the Southern Laramie Range. One thing we will continue to monitor is the possible expansion of low visibility/freezing fog potential into the Kimball and Cheyenne County areas of the Nebraska Panhandle. If this occurs, an additional expansion of the current Freezing Fog Advisory will need to be done to incorporate those areas. Current observations in those areas show 7 to 10 mile visibility, despite the low cloud ceilings under 1000 feet presently. Decided to go ahead with a Freezing Fog Advisory through 9AM Sunday as winds stay out of the south and southeast overnight. so did add areas of Freezing Fog across much of the Panhandle and southeast Wyoming plains. Evening shift may need to issue a Freezing Fog Advisory once we see where the denser fog sets up.
308 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Quiet weather expected across the region with relatively flat upper level ridging overhead. By late tonight, an incoming cold front will approach, switching our southerly winds from Sunday around to the northwest. Better forcing looks to be focused over SW MN, although could see enough saturation in the lower atmosphere to squeeze out a few sprinkles or flurries elsewhere.
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Morning soundings show a saturated column in the lowest 1 kilometer of the atmosphere, along with some weak lift.
The low levels are drier as compared to the past few days so fog production may only take place near the coast. Deep layer ridging will continue through the night, with the stationary boundary and associated rain remaining north of the region. Mid/Upper level ridge centered over the southern GOMEX will gradually flatten with flow becoming zonal across the gulf states by Monday night. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front just north of our CWA will slip down into our FA as a wedge of high pressure builds down into Georgia from the Carolina's. Temps will be well above normal Sunday with highs in the lower 80s north and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
Starting on Monday a good baroclinic zone develops as a warm front moves into southwest Kansas. Areas north of the warm front should stay cloudy all day with highs in the 50s meanwhile south of the warm front there should be clearing skies and temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Overall, drier and somewhat warmer conditions can be expected through the day time Monday.
The primary culprit for the wet pattern remains an unusually strong and persistent upper level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Similar to the "ring of fire" in the midsummer months, when storms track around the periphery of an upper level ridge, the upper level jet and storm track will remain in close proximity to the Midsouth this week. For today, a surface cold front will drop to central MS by midmorning.
1044 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2020 The latest water vapor images and upper-air analysis places a trough across the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern CONUS.
1003 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Plenty of low and mid clouds remain today under southwest flow as one system exits onto the Plains and another larger low pressure system spins off the Pacific Northwest coast. Some isolated showers have popped up over the high terrain this afternoon due to lingering instability but due to drier low levels, do not anticipate much in the way of precipitation accumulation with light showers over the mountains and sprinkles over the lower valley locations. The broken cloud cover is causing temperatures to be a bit cooler than yesterday but it does look like highs will be close to normal. The large low pressure system looks to become cut off from the main upper level flow by Monday, while it spins over northern and central California.
Gusty north or northeast winds are expected through the night and into the early to mid afternoon hours at Coeur d'Alene, Moses Lake, and Sandpoint with as a tight pressure gradient deep low pressure over southwest Oregon and strong high pressure over Montana and Alberta.
Temps will become much warmer later this week, increasing the potential for thunderstorms and localized heavy downpours.
Still would expect the low stratus and fog to develop during the overnight as plenty of low level Gulf moisture in place and winds near the surface are expected to relax. Warm and humid conditions continue as high pressure remains stretched from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast. A cold front is stalled from North Texas, across North Louisiana, and into Georgia. South of the front, the onshore flow around the edge of the Atlantic ridge continues pushing in a warm and humid air mass. Aloft, a ridge remains centered over the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping most precip north of the local area.
417 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Expecting to continue the quiet weekend today thanks to the large high pressure to the north. Things will change tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front from west to east. Overnight wind will become predominately southerlies ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Northern stream disturbance will push into far northern Ontario on Monday pushing a cold front southward across Lake Superior and the U. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of light snow but as low level temperatures climb above freezing by late morning.
224 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure surface aloft persists across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. The southern extent of the trough axis will suppress the U/L ridge currently over Florida south of the region.
436 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering dry weather with temperatures a little below normal. The high will slide off to the east Monday with temperatures moderating to near normal.
1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Satellite and radar reveal that the majority of the precipitation has shifted to the south with the low level warm frontal forcing. Winds will stay out of the east keeping us cool again tomorrow with lows near freezing and highs only in the lower 40s with cloudy skies.
Following a dry and warmer beginning, periodic rain can be expected as a series of disturbances cross the region this week. Nevertheless, the Winter Weather Advisory for the ridges remains in place with residual early morning snow possibly finishing with some patches of freezing drizzle in the higher elevations where surface temps are below freezing as per road sensors. Otherwise, expect rapid improvement today via building high pressure. well into the 40s, with upper 30s on the ridges. Dry weather can be expected through Monday as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high cloudiness. The flat ridging will also support high temperature a few degrees above the mid March averages.
Blustery north or northeast winds will persist through the night and into Sunday down the Okanogan Valley, the Upper Columbia Basin, and down the Highway 95 corridor from Sandpoint to Post Falls.
High pressure to the north of Illinois will continue to feed dry air in the mid-levels on northeast winds. Most areas lows will dip just below freezing. Double-barreled upper low over the western U.
On Sunday, expecting seasonal temperatures as southerly winds increase ahead of a trough that is expected to move through the region on Monday. With the passage of the cold front on Monday, could see a few light rain showers mainly north of I-90.
The first of several chances for precipitation comes Monday, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area, as a weak northern stream trough moves through the northern Plains, while some southern stream moisture moves into at least part of the area from the central and southern Plains.
The low pressure system along the northern California coast will generate a strong and mild southerly flow across Utah through Monday. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek.
1026 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering dry weather with temperatures a little below normal. The high will slide off to the east Monday with temperatures moderating to near normal.
Elevated storms are active in south Arkansas behind a stalled cold front the extends from west Texas into northern Louisiana and eastward across central Georgia. Mild temperatures are expected for Monday as easterly winds keep the higher dew points down at the coast.
924 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure builds over the region today and Monday with fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
551 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper low situated off the Northern CA coast, with a downstream upper ridge over the Central CONUS. A front was stalled just west of the Laramie Range, with extensive low stratus, freezing fog and drizzle to the east. The lowest visibilities were along the I-80 corridor from Vedauwoo/Buford east through Cheyenne, Pine Bluffs and Kimball. Recently extended the Freezing Fog Advisory to include Eastern Laramie County and Kimball County, valid until 9 AM MDT this morning.
Highs on Monday will be a bit warmer as surface winds turn out of the south by afternoon.
An inverted dry layer is also present in the lower layers of the sounding. The high-res models have been hinting at this. Doubt much is hitting the ground at this time except on some of the higher plateau ridges. Suspect overall pops may be a bit low over the higher terrain but confidence not high much liquid will make it to the ground. The more interesting subject matter is a closed upper low slowly dropping down California. but advection over the snow will keep forecast temperatures on the lowest end of guidance for now.
With that said, dryer air aloft is projected to progress south over the Inland Northwest and bring more stable conditions across the region as a weak positive tiled ridge axis noses east over the region. Gusty north or northeast winds are expected through the night and into the early to mid afternoon hours at Coeur d'Alene, Moses Lake, and Sandpoint with as a tight pressure gradient deep low pressure over southwest Oregon and strong high pressure over Montana and Alberta.
Mostly cloudy skies and the recent snow cover will keep high temperatures much cooler than the potential for this afternoon, with highs on the western SD plains mainly remaining the 30s with slightly warmer highs over parts of northeastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota. Areas of fog and possibly some light freezing drizzle or flurries are possible tonight as a shallow layer of colder air moves in behind a cold front.
410 AM PDT Sun Mar 15 2020 An unsettled weather pattern this week will bring cooler than average weather and periods of rain and mountain snow.
345 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 There have been reports of light freezing drizzle and slick roads in our eastern cwa tonight, east of a Forsyth-Lodge Grass line, courtesy of a fairly deep layer of low level saturation underneath drier air aloft, w/ temps in the saturated layer between 0c and -10c. This and cold advection moving east should reduce the threat of freezing precipitation over the next few hours.
415 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Active upper pattern continues with the region located between a high pressure ridge over the Gulf and a closed low along the Nrn CA Coast.
619 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Patchy freezing drizzle and fog will continue mainly near and south of Highway 2 through mid-morning. This will remain conducive for patchy freezing drizzle and fog to continue through mid-morning. A system moving across the Southern Plains northward into Kansas and southern Nebraska will bring a slight chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle to far southeast areas after midnight. A cold front will move through during the day, to actually bring slightly warmer temperatures from the lower 40s north to the mid and upper 40s south.
727 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High Pressure builds into northern New England today.
Following a dry and warmer beginning, periodic rain can be expected as a series of disturbances cross the region this week. Kept advisory going given weak radar returns and a few reports of light snow/freezing drizzle still occuring. The Winter Weather Advisory for the ridges remains in place due to this residual precipitation at higher elevations where surface temps are below freezing as per road sensors. Otherwise, building high pressure and increasing subsidence will slowly clear clouds from north to south through the day as temperature rebounds to near seasonal averages. Dry weather can be expected through Monday as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high cloudiness. The flat ridging will also support high temperature a few degrees above the mid March averages.
Upper trough over W NOAM, with upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico with weak ridging extending north into the Central CONUS, with upper trough moving east from the Midwest to the NE/Mid Atl coast. Monday: As Canadian high pressure moves into the Northeast, cold air damming will bring cool, low-level air into the forecast area. Highs may be in the low 50s or cooler to the north and should remain under 60 degrees for the majority of the forecast area.
Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the northwest Caribbean Sea, with low-level ridging holding court across the area. As the aforementioned upper high moves closer, subsidence should keep things a bit dry outside perhaps an uptick in cloud and a spotty shower or two along the Gulf breeze this afternoon across interior areas.
650 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure builds over the region today and Monday with fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
Morning soundings show a saturated column in the lowest 1 kilometer of the atmosphere, along with some weak lift.
/issued 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ Active upper pattern continues with the region located between a high pressure ridge over the Gulf and a closed low along the Nrn CA Coast.
623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 An inverted trough will nose up into the Dakotas today as a low slowly moves off the Rockies. Moisture may be lacking at times in the dendritic growth zone so isolated freezing drizzle is not out of the question. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday dragging in drier air with it. Temperatures will be modified by cloud cover today and an upper trough on Monday.
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Quiet weather expected across the region with relatively flat upper level ridging overhead. By late tonight, an incoming cold front will approach, switching our southerly winds from Sunday around to the northwest. Better forcing looks to be focused over SW MN, although could see enough saturation in the lower atmosphere to squeeze out a few sprinkles or flurries elsewhere.
A low pressure system will slowly track south along the Pacific coast.
Temperatures today will be cooler area wide, with highs expected to range from the lower 50s across the northern Big Country, to the mid/upper 60s along the I-10 corridor. Will have to keep an eye on temperatures as the models have trended cooler, and the NAM MOS is cooler than our current forecast.
As the morning continues the low clouds and fog will burn off with ample sunshine dry and very warm conditions expected the remainder of the day as sprawling high pressure surface and aloft covering the Gulf and Florida remains in control. Temperatures in the mid 60s early this morning will again climb into the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland during the afternoon with some near record high temperatures possible. Tranquil boating conditions under high pressure over the region will continue to support light winds, slight seas, and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
726 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 IFR/LIFR Cigs/Vsbys may impact KLAL, KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW terminals until 14Z as some low stratus and fog affect the area, otherwise VFR is expected at all of the terminals with SCT clouds in the 040-060 range expected after 15Z as the low clouds and fog lift. /issued 224 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ High pressure surface aloft persists across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. The southern extent of the trough axis will suppress the U/L ridge currently over Florida south of the region.
A low pressure system will slowly track south along the Pacific coast. Went for areas of freezing fog in Elko Countya and patchy fog for Humboldt County. A low pressure system will slowly track south along the Pacific coast.
647 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 A cold front now draped across northern Louisiana will advance into the forecast area as the day progresses. Elevated storms are active in south Arkansas behind a stalled cold front the extends from west Texas into northern Louisiana and eastward across central Georgia. Mild temperatures are expected for Monday as easterly winds keep the higher dew points down at the coast.
645 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering dry weather with temperatures a little below normal. The high will slide off to the east Monday with temperatures moderating to near normal.
/Issued 339 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ Low level warm air advection and moisture advection will combine with the upslope flow on the surface and lift aloft from an approaching short wave trough to help produce showers along with a few thunderstorms across the Panhandles today through tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms may linger across the far southeast Texas Panhandle Monday morning as another weak upper level short wave trough moves across this area. Highs on Monday will be much warmer with readings in the 60's and 70's given the added sunshine.
908 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Morning central FL soundings indicate a substantial dry layer from H8-H5 associated with the mid level ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a weak high pressure ridge will allow light winds this morning becoming onshore from the NE-E this afternoon as the east coast breeze moves inland. High temps will range from around 80 at the beaches to the lower 80s near the coast and mid to upper 80s across the interior. Atlantic ridge axis will linger over the local Atlc waters producing a weak pressure gradient and light winds.
337 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper low situated off the Northern CA coast, with a downstream upper ridge over the Central CONUS. A front was stalled just west of the Laramie Range, with extensive low stratus, freezing fog and drizzle to the east. The lowest visibilities were along the I-80 corridor from Vedauwoo/Buford east through Cheyenne, Pine Bluffs and Kimball. Recently extended the Freezing Fog Advisory to include Eastern Laramie County and Kimball County, valid until 9 AM MDT this morning.
Another disturbance aloft will force yet another cold front south into the forecast area through the course of today. However, it'll begin meeting resistance from strong high pressure and ridging aloft centered over the central Gulf of Mexico. Because of the departing disturbance through mid- afternoon and this high pressure to the south, any lingering showers associated with the front are expected to gradually dissipate across the the CWA through late afternoon.
956 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure builds across southeast Canada this afternoon, then across northern New England tonight.
As this upper level low pressure cut-off center circulation becomes completely separated from the northern stream flow, a shockingly cold punch of temperatures will sneak into portions of our area from central and northern Montana over the next 2 or 3 days. By mid-week, temperatures will climb to more normal levels as the influence of the colder low pressure trough slowly weakens away from the region.
422 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 An inverted trough will nose up into the Dakotas today as a low slowly moves off the Rockies. Moisture may be lacking at times in the dendritic growth zone so isolated freezing drizzle is not out of the question. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday dragging in drier air with it. Temperatures will be modified by cloud cover today and an upper trough on Monday.
1021 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Following a dry and warmer beginning, periodic rain can be expected as a series of disturbances cross the region this week. Some patchy fog and a few pockets of freezing drizzle remain, but with road temps generally near or above freezing, any impacts should be ending. Dry weather can be expected through Monday as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high cloudiness. The flat ridging will also support high temperature a few degrees above the mid March averages.
Forecast soundings in the low levels remain fairly dry through the day. Slightly deeper moisture in place as a weak cold front and fast- moving mid-level short wave pass rapidly across WI Monday night.
339 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure will build over the area tonight then move east on Monday.
223 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure. Most areas have scattered to broken cumulus, while thicker clouds, and even a bit of patchy fog, is hanging on in some ridge zones. Dry weather will continue through the night as a high pressure center slides across eastern Canada. Considered adding some drizzle/freezing drizzle in eastern Tucker County later tonight, but think that moisture and southeast flow will be too weak for much of a threat. A weak warm frontal passage during the day will commence warm advection and bring clouds back northward once again.
The Low has shifted further south along the coast.
Otherwise, lows tonight will remain mild, in the lower 60s.
Tonight will again be on the colder side, with low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s as we maintain northeasterly flow at the surface. As the high pressure moves off to the east tomorrow across Quebec, southerly return flow will allow temperatures to warm nicely, with highs pushing into the mid to upper 50s.
Upper trough over W NOAM, with upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico with weak ridging extending north into the Central CONUS, with upper trough moving east from the Midwest to the NE/Mid Atl coast. Temperatures a little cooler west of AGS so adjusted temps down slightly even south of the front through the afternoon. Monday: As Canadian high pressure moves into the Northeast, cold air damming will bring cool, low-level air into the forecast area. Highs may be in the low 50s or cooler to the north and should remain under 60 degrees for the majority of the forecast area.