Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rising motion due to heating in the buoyant airmass, along with some assistance from short wave lift ahead of a Mid America upper low should allow for the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms both today and tonight across the Southern Appalachians.
247 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Main near term focus remains the potential for showers and thunderstorms with the approach and passage of an upper level low/trough through Thursday evening. Early this morning, the center of low pressure was positioned over southwest Missouri. Bands of showers and some thunderstorms were rotating around the upper low. The low is forecast to slowly trudge east across southern Missouri into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday and eventually the Ohio Valley Thursday night. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this low coupled with an unstable and very humid air mass will result in waves of showers and some thunderstorms today through Thursday. Rain chances will taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening as the low shifts to our east.
304 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Region at 2 AM CDT under weak high pressure with increasing high clouds from disturbance over Missouri. At the surface a cold front will extend from northern Wisconsin into western IA. 4km NAM has convection firing along the cold front then sliding south and east with time. After this, the weekend still looks to be amazing, with highs in the low 80s, lower RH, breezy and lows in the 50s at night.
413 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to the upper 90s over the next several days.
An east to west deep layer ridge will remain entrenched across the lower southeast states despite a mid level trough and weak surface cold front moving southward into central AL and northern GA.
High pressure will remain stationary centered around the 4-corners area of the country. A low pressure system will be dropping south along the canadian coastline but through Thursday will provide little energy to influence the position of the high pressure area.
/issued 333 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ The ridge of high pressure that has been located over the region during the past several days will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida for the rest of the week and moving forward into the weekend.
324 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 An upper level low will track slowly east across the Mississippi river valley tonight and gradually approach the Appalachians from the west late Thursday into Thursday night.
324 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper level high will build slowly eastward into the state through tonight. The combination of the two will effectively cap off the atmosphere across the plains, while a few high based showers/storms with gusty winds still possible over the higher terrain. Where this convection occurs, expect temperatures to remain similar or slightly cooler than todays readings, whereas elsewhere will likely be a degree or two hotter. The plains should see reading of mid to upper 90s, with several spots over the east plains, especially along the lower South Platte River valley to reach 100 degrees or more.
1132 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered over eastern UT and western CO tonight and Wed. Upper ridging is projected to become centered over and/or near the 4-Corners region during the balance of the longer term.
608 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Upper level ridge building and moisture shallow. Upper level ridge continues over the southeastern states through Thursday which should limit afternoon convection and temperatures in the upper 90s. Upper ridge shifting southeast into the Atlantic as long wave trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
High pressure will remain across the region, with rather light winds and afternoon sea breezes.
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show upper low slowly rotating over southwest Missouri early this morning. A few light showers noted across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the backside of the low. Upper low will be very slow to move east and portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas could see additional scattered showers and isolated thunder this afternoon.
Persistant western ridge will remain in place over the next several days allowing northwesterly flow to continue over the region. A cold front is progged to drop into the area Thursday afternoon/evening providing only a wind shift.
Look for increasing mid to upper tropospheric flow on Thursday, as a low amplitude wave drops southeast around the eastern periphery of a stout anticyclone centered over the Four Corners. A surface cold front will accompany the wave, with lift maximized as the front slides southeast through southern Wisconsin. Expect around 25 knots in the lowest kilometer, with the effective storm relative helicity peaking around 200 m2/s2. This profile is sufficient for supercells and bowing line segments, and the risk for a tornado or two can't be ruled out given the low-level shear magnitude.
500 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 UPDATED AVIATION With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to the upper 90s over the next several days.
Current temperatures in the Central Valley are running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago as the Delta Breeze continues and range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in the Delta and Sacramento region to the mid 60s and lower 70s across the remainder of the Valley. A return to hotter weather is expected to begin Thursday and continue into the weekend as the Southwest high builds westward bringing as slightly warmer airmass and compressing the marine layer.
As main upper trough and surface front move out of Canada overnight tonight. Upper trough begins to amplify over the Upper Great Lakes by Thu and remains amplified over the area into the weekend. Model consensus timing indicates that a cold front will cross the western fcst area Thu afternoon and then slide through the rest of the fcst area by early overnight Thu night.
Drier conditions are likely today and tonight as a broad upper level high pressure center across the Intermountain West begins to expand slowly eastward into the Western High Plains. With little change expected to the air mass across the high plains, look for highs to the push the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon. Large upper high and ridge remaining anchored across the central Rockies/Great Basin area during the latter half of the week into the weekend; a pattern suggestive of high CAPE and low shear/weak steering flow for any convective development. Light southeasterly winds will persist across southwest and central Kansas through Wednesday as a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border.
Hot and dry conditions will continue today with upper ridge extending through the Great Basin. Temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday with Canadian high pressure pushing out of Saskatchewan and into the northern Plains. With the high pressure will come another, but slower, shift of the winds around to the southeast. Synoptic Setup: Thursday night begins with a large area of hot high pressure covering the western half of the CONUS. Ridge spurs jut out from here over central US Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and up through British Columbia and Yukon Territory through the Rockies. A large closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and into the Gulf of Alaska.
Updates this evening mainly concern thunderstorm coverage with a line of storms weakening out by the Mobridge area, otherwise its mostly isolated coverage to the west and just south of I90.
The upper low pressure system was over central MO and rotating upper energy into AR. The most significant convection was in western AR associated with the strongest lift rotating around the upper low pressure system. This area is forecast to move east southeast this morning and hence the highest moves into central areas. Tonight, the upper low pressure system and low pressure trough is forecast to move more east, and hence taking the main lift to eastern AR.
356 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 As of 8Z, an area of low pressure is pushing into northern MN with a trailing cold front along the ND/SD border. This front will lift northward as a warm front today as a low pressure system approaches the region from the northwest.
643 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will provide another pleasant day with seasonal temperatures, low humidity and generally rain-free weather.
An upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will keep the heat on through Thursday. High temperatures will range from around 90 in the mountains to the low 100s in the valleys each day.
642 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather today into this evening. There is a low chance for showers on Thursday southeast of US 24 as weak low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley. Most locations will remain dry with highs in the low to mid 80s both today and Thursday.
552 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper low currently over southwest Missouri will track slowly E/NE into the lower Ohio River Valley today. Thanks to temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s, CAPEs will reach the 1500-2000J/kg range by peak heating. Despite decent instability and increasing synoptic lift ahead of the approaching upper low, winds throughout the profile will remain very weak. Have focused highest PoPs across the southeast CWA in closer proximity to the low. Showers and thunderstorms will linger along/south of the I-70 corridor into Thursday as the upper low tracks through Kentucky. Meanwhile, a cold front poised over the Upper Midwest will trigger scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Wisconsin/Minnesota late Thursday afternoon and evening.
313 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Upper level ridge building and moisture shallow. Upper level ridge continues over the southeastern states through Thursday which should limit afternoon convection and temperatures in the upper 90s. Upper ridge shifting southeast into the Atlantic as long wave trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
244 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Low dewpoints along with light winds under weak surface ridging will ensure at least one more cool night.
102 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Hydro Weakening low pressure, formally Irma, will approach from the south today and tonight and bring some cloudiness and perhaps a few showers to southern lower Michigan. Otherwise high pressure and above normal temperatures will dominate our weather through the coming weekend. Will maintain low chance pops today and tonight for a few showers south of a MKG to MOP line as guidance depicts a narrow band or two of mid level fgen related forcing pivoting nwwd around north side of approaching upper low. The upper low moves to near IND by 00Z tonight then heads ene from there, reaching PA on Thursday.
Broad low pressure area left over from Irma now over the Ohio Valley continues to spin and bring in some light rain showers across plateau and central valley areas at mid afternoon. Warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds across the area.
322 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Low level moisture will slowly return to North and Central Texas beginning tonight, keeping temperatures a bit warmer than the past several nights. However, the northern zones will be the last to see the moisture increase and therefore will have the coolest temperatures with lows from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Otherwise we are left from some residual clouds and temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s with low 90s across our western counties where clouds have cleared out. Thursday will feature another warm day across the region with 850 mb temps in the low to mid 20s C. Weak mid level troughing and broad warm air advection may be enough to support some isolated activity but weakly rising heights aloft may suppress the activity or at least keep it to a minimum.
259 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A weakening upper level Low will move into the Ohio Valley tonight and then across New York and Pennsylvania on Thursday.
Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, with slightly more humid air. The center of circulation of the low will move over central OH tonight, and then turn east across PA into Thursday. A weak high pressure builds late Thursday. The upper level low associated with the remnants of Irma, pass north of the forecast area, as it moves from Ohio into western PA, Thursday, and then across PA, away from the forecast area, Thursday night. All the while, the low fills and opens up into a trough.
Jaszka A Canadian cold front is slowly moving southward through the region today. As a result, it will be quite a bit cooler this afternoon over North Central MT and not as hot over Southwest MT.
As expected a few thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain. Tonight and tomorrow upper pattern turns much more progressive as an upper trough builds in from the west. This will kick the upper low that has been in our area out into the plains. The upper trough will also escort in cooler air that looks to hang around for a while. looks like the only real threat of precipitation will be in the northern area in the higher terrain the way the lift from the trough is situated.
DRAMATIC CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER AND MOIST CONDITIONS. A weak cold front will shift southward across western Montana and north central Idaho into this evening with a few showers possible (mainly west central Montana). The dramatic change we've been talking about will start Thursday night as an upper level trough begins to deepen across the Northern Rockies.
250 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Omega block will remain in place across the CONUS over the next few days, with ridge extending north across the High Plains through Thursday. Near record high temperatures will be possible again Thursday, with highs nearing 100F at warmer locations. Pulses of disorganized vorticity are rotating around the ridge from the Central Rockies into our CWA will allow for elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop.
305 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 As the upper trough deepens over the west coast our region comes under increasing mid level sw flow through the short term. Temperatures should follow with minimums from the around 50 over the far nw to the lower 60s over the south. With more cloud cover and boundary sagging south temperatures will be cooler over all but the far s-se where low 80s possible. By Thursday night, the weather pattern changes and becomes more unsettled as southwest flow aloft dominates, and an upper level trof digs in the intermountain west.
The combination of cooler air closer to the center of circulation and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 60s across the north, but temperatures will rise into the lower 80s in the southeast where skies will be mostly clear.
This cyclone continues to wrap a lot of dry air into its center and has the look of a decaying, occluded baroclinic low. Moisture continues to wrap around the core of this cyclone, with isentropic ascent noted just above the boundary layer. Low ceilings, relatively light winds, and patchy fog are present with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the lower 60s at most locations. Highs today are anticipated to moderate into the lower 70s west of the Mississippi River but remain in the middle 60s near the Tennessee River. Models indicate mid/upper level ridging will gradually build into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
The increased cloud cover over Southern Arkansas and North Central/Northeast Louisiana should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in these areas compared to locations farther west, where temperatures are already near 80 degrees F.
but we shall see how the high level smoke as the sun rises. Overall did increase sky cover some over MN due to the high clouds.
600 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 For tonight, a clear sky and light wind is expected over the area with high pressure in place. The high pressure will slide off to the east on Thursday with the pressure gradient increasing behind the departing high and in advance of low pressure developing in the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to build into the area as well, so there should be a warming trend beginning on Thursday with most areas seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Mvfr ceilings and visibility a possibility at cha tonight with southerly flow ahead of the low pressure that was formerly Irma.
313 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The upper pattern across the North America will transition from generally zonal flow to deeper trough building over the Southwestern US by the end of the week. This will allow for an upper ridge to deepen across the eastern two-thirds of the country. The trough developing over the west and stronger flow around that trough will help produce a strong lee side trough at the surface.
Highs today should generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s though locations along the immediate lakeshore that stay under the clouds longer will be cooler.
A low pressure system near the California coast is spreading moisture across the region this afternoon and evening. The threat for showers will persist through the night as the low begins to move inland. The threat for precipitation begins to increase on Thursday as a second low pressure system moves towards the area out of British Columbia. This low will bring a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
152 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Weak high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through this afternoon, while a weak area of low pressure tracks northeast across central and eastern VA. A mid-upper level low over wrn TN/KY, which includes the remnants of Irma, will lift newd across the OH Valley while gradually filling/weakening through tonight. Meanwhile, the warm front/wedge front that was over central NC yesterday has lifted north into central and northern VA, leaving the forecast area in the warm sector/low-level SSWLY flow. Lots of sunshine expected through the first half of the day, before we see a resurgence of 850-500mb moistening late this afternoon and through tonight, amidst larger scale, 20-30 meter background mid level height falls on the ern periphery of the aforementioned mid- upper low lifting toward the OH valley.
Models have remained consistent in bringing a significant pattern change to the area as a low pressure system moves into the region ushering in much cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation beginning Thursday. Showers will increase across the area Thursday as the low pressure system moves into the region and north to northeast upslope flow develops.
Upper low continues to spin along the lower Ohio River Valley this morning. Conceivably, showers could be most prevalent on the NW and W side of the upper low, as has been the case, and in developing southerly flow east of the low. On Thursday, the low pulls away. It will be a little milder on Thursday, with highs in the lower 70s in east- central KY to the mid-upper 70s in our western counties.
An upper level low will track northeastward along the Ohio River through tonight with a lob of vorticity extending southwestward from it to the eastern Gulf Coast. Coastal areas will bottom out in the lower 70s.
317 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 This afternoon a mid-level ridge stretched from the southwestern U. , with water vapor imagery showing increasing cloud cover over the Pacific Northwest from an advancing mid-level trough. Models show this trough deepening across the western U. This advancing low pressure will cause an increasing pressure gradient overnight and through the day on Thursday, with short-range guidance showing winds beginning to increase by sunrise. By Thursday night, a positively tilted mid-level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest while a closed low (the remnants of Irma) located over the northeast CONUS progress eastward.
Based on current surface obs, high temps will have plenty of time to reach the lower 90s for inland areas before precip develops this afternoon, and this should once again result in afternoon heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. Severe parameters looks rather unimpressive, as there are no vort maxes passing by and model derived 500 mb temps appear warmer than -6 C.
605 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the region today. A weak cold front will move into the north Thursday and stall.
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper level trough tracks across the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Thursday.
124 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Region remains under the influence of a weak upper-level ridge axis which extends from the Four Corners region north/northeast into the High Plains. In addition, a closed upper low is just moving onto the California coast. CAM's continue to weaken this activity as it moves east, away from the low-level jet so have left our forecast area dry through the day.
1123 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A cold front passage tonight will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures for the rest of the work week.
Aloft southwest flow increases as a mid level wave moves eastward from the Ohio Valley and a secondary trough digs off the TX coast.
225 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will track into Pennsylvania by Thursday morning.
The remnant upper low associated with Irma will be located east of the Great Lakes with associated troughing extending southwest through the Ohio River Valley and further south into the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak upper ridging extends over Florida, which will help keep Hurricane Jose out to sea east of the Bahamas.
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper level trough tracks across the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Thursday.
A strong cold front will move through region Thursday bringing in a drier and cooler air mass into the Great Basin.
/Issued 1028 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ High pressure centered over the plains this morning has resulted in a light wind regime across the area. Warmer areawide temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s across eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas with lower 80s elsewhere are expected.
233 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper trough is over and just east of the Mississippi River with another upper low moving over California. West Texas and southeast New Mexico are under an upper ridge with northerly flow aloft. The upper low over the West Coast moves onshore on Thursday and becomes connected with a broader upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. There is again a chance of storms Thursday afternoon and early evening along the higher terrain.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned between 500 mb high pressure that will ease east from northwest Mexico to the north- central part of the country, and 500 mb low pressure (the remnants of Irma) that will gradually move from the Ohio River Valley to New England. After several days of refreshing temperatures in the wake of an early cold front, temperatures will return to well above normal levels courtesy of the limited cloud cover and decreasing precipitable water values.
357 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the region today. A weak cold front will move into the north Thursday and stall.
300 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The first cold front of the Fall season will bring gusty winds Thursday along with another chance for showers, or even a few storms north of Highway 50.