Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Zonal flow remains in place aloft over the region with a low moving over the Great Lakes region and high pressure to our south. At the surface, weak high pressure extends over the southern half of the Florida peninsula with a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped to our north. Thursday will bring a brief shot of cooler and drier air as high pressure builds over the southeast.
Have continued to trend toward the lower end of guidance for highs today and on the top end of the spectrum of guidance for low temps tonight.
Thermal trough axis shifting east and drying in low levels should diminish lake effect showers overnight but all members of HREF still showing weak returns over the area into Thursday. Winds and cloud cover should keep lows near 40F tonight with continued below normal Thursday with highs only in the lower 50s.
351 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 High pressure will settle across our area tonight, as light surface winds will gradually shift out of the south. With only a few high clouds and light winds, we will expect another night of radiational cooling keeping low temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than average for early Fall mornings. A building ridge aloft with increasing south winds will warm Thursday to more mild and seasonably normal temperatures.
1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 At 3 AM, cyclonic flow, associated with the closed low pressure area over Lower Michigan, kept skies mainly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The rain will be moving east of the area this morning as the upper level low moves east into Lake Huron. While the low will be exiting the area, moisture will remain trapped underneath the subsidence inversion. As a result, we will remain mainly cloudy until the 950 to 850 mb ridge moves east of the area. Lows on Thursday morning will be in the lower to mid-30s.
They should continue moving east with the front and allow for sunny skies today, except for cooler temps hanging around. Didn't adjust temps too much as it still looks like most of the area will be in the low 60s or near 60 for highs, and some mid to upper 50s on the Plateau.
Temperatures will continue to warm into Thursday as low-level winds veer to the southwest in response to a developing low pressure system in the north-central Great Plains.
--- BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridging over the western U. However, wind speeds around 20 mph have been confined to the Fort Peck Dam, and have come in consistently on the low end of criteria. The upper ridge will translate downstream of the CWA late in the week as the next upper trough digs into the Pacific coastline and eventually brings an increase in precipitation chances to northeast Montana. That said, there is some degree of confidence that a wetter and cooler weather pattern will unfold for the upcoming weekend. Maliawco Synopsis: A building ridge of high pressure from the west will act to partially clear skies across the region throughout the day.
The region remained under the inflection between a long wave trough to the east and a building ridge to the west. The upper level ridge axis should track directly overhead tomorrow and tomorrow night keeping skies clear.
Also, getting pretty cold in the highest elevations of the Smokies, but most areas staying above freezing, so not planning on Freeze Warning there, and winds will be too breezy in those areas for frost development.
With the departure of the high tomorrow, winds will increase from the south. Although moisture will increase some, warmer temperatures and rather low afternoon humidity will provide a more favorable environment for the start and spread of fires.
240 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Tonight and Thursday: A mid-level ridge from the Canadian Rockies to Great Basin will advance into central North America while a surface lee trough deepens over the High Plains. The lee troughing will support strengthening south to southeast winds on Thursday along with warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
A few showers may redevelop near DRT closer to 06Z as lift from an upper low nears the terminals and this activity may make it as far east as SAT/SSF by 15-16Z Thursday, but have not included mention in the San Antonio TAFs due to low confidence. North winds are increasing as this cooler air starts to filter through. Updated the forecast to adjust fluctuating temperatures behind the cold front, and to reflect current precipitation conditions.
Widespread cloudiness have kept temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecasted. Cooler and drier air continues to filter through the area in the wake of last nights frontal passage. Thursday, an upper low moves through the area from the west. Though we remain quite dry in the lower levels, this disturbance may pull in enough residual moisture to generate some showers and thunder, in our western counties tomorrow afternoon. By Thursday night, southeasterly winds return bringing warmer and more moist air back from the Gulf.
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Tonight and tomorrow should be relatively quiet as upper ridging dominates. Winds will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as a lee trough develops ahead of an upper trough.
Due to high pressure building into the area, skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light tonight.
1108 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly sunny, dry, warmer and breezy as a transient ridge passes quickly by, centered over the four-corners region. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday's and about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The ridge will also bring a drop in afternoon humidities and increased wind gusts across most of southeast Wyoming. Breezy conditions will continue across the high terrain. Ahead of a strong cold front scheduled to move across the high terrain and the High Plains late Thursday, prevailing winds will turn to the southwest and increase in strength. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late Thursday, with the cold front reaching Carbon County before midnight.
257 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Southerly flow will continue to gradually increase overnight into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds onto the Plains. The low level thermal field will warm nicely, but with a slight southeast component to the wind some sights in northwest IA and southwest MN will remain on the cooler side. Highs from the lower 60s in those areas to the lower 70s in south central SD.
335 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly cloudy and cooler conditions continue this afternoon as upper ridging builds to the west.
Surface flow becomes more southeast, but despite the poor mixing inherent in the wind direction, warmer air above the boundary layer is headed in our direction.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with an upper level ridge to our west and a deep upper level low over the Great Lakes. Ridge axis builds into the Northern Plains tonight, then starts to slide off to our east on Thursday. Upper level clouds will be on the increase Thu as a mid level trough moves into the Northern Rockies.
239 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the Rockies with sharp trof over the Western CONUS and Great Lakes region. At the surface, lee trof stretches from eastern Montana into the Nebraska Panhandle. Upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains tonight, with warmer air moving into the area. Upper ridge breaks down Thursday night as lead impulse ejects out of western CONUS trof.
254 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge centered over the Florida Keys and western Cuba. The low-level ridge axis is across the Keys as well, lending to gentle southwest breezes across the coastal waters. Since then, we have watched visible satellite imagery an the slow erosion of the low level cumulus as the Cuban shadow worked northward. Meanwhile, a short wave trough over the Texas- Mexico border will erode the northwestern flank of the mean- layer ridge. Baroclinic forcing from the short wave will act upon a weak area of low pressure (see early afternoon ASCAT) over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday and Thursday night.
1123 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas into the central plains. Lee side trof located over central Montana into Wyoming. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains today/Thursday, with low level thermal temperatures peaking Thursday afternoon. Upper ridge breaks down Thursday night as lead impulse ejects out of western CONUS trof.
An upper level ridge will track across the Central Rockies today and tonight. Warmer air will move into the state pushing high temperatures into the 70s across northeast Colorado. On Thursday, the high pressure ridge aloft will shift east across the central plains as a weak upper trof pushes into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, lee trof will develop with increasing southeast winds across far Eastern Colorado. Temperatures look to be slightly warmer on Thursday afternoon with a slight nudge upwards of 700mb temperatures to around +11c.
1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Upper level ridging builds east across the region today. Return southerly flow (south winds) develop as leeward troughing develops across the western High Plains. Warming up once again as warmer air advects northward with high in the lower to mid 70s across the Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska.
252 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 A cold front is expected to exit the area this afternoon with no significant additional rain expected. Much cooler temperatures are expected the next 2 nights with forecast temperatures running 3-6 degrees below normal across the area tonight and similar for Thursday night.
Strong southwest flow aloft will continue today in advance of an approaching low pressure system.
Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid 30s just about everywhere, with maybe a couple degrees warmer in WI if the clouds hang on a bit longer than expected.
Tonight and Thursday: A mid-level ridge from the Canadian Rockies to Great Basin will advance into central North America while a surface lee trough deepens over the High Plains. The lee troughing will support strengthening south to southeast winds on Thursday along with warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
636 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly cloudy and cooler conditions continue this afternoon as upper ridging builds to the west.
336 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 The warm upper level ridge will shift eastward tonight and Thursday ahead of the next trough digging into the western U. However, some ridgelines in/near the foothills will stay warm with sufficient drainage winds. However, the increasing high clouds will likely shave a couple degrees off potential highs, so mid to upper 70s should be common in the lower elevations, with a couple spots possibly touching 80F.
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Southerly flow will continue to gradually increase overnight into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds onto the Plains. The low level thermal field will warm nicely, but with a slight southeast component to the wind some sights in northwest IA and southwest MN will remain on the cooler side. Highs from the lower 60s in those areas to the lower 70s in south central SD.
Mid & high-level clouds should exit the region by this evening, but anticipate an increase in cloud cover once again overnight ahead of upper-level troughing over the western CONUS. Ahead of a strong cold front scheduled to move across the high terrain and the High Plains late Thursday, prevailing winds will turn to the southwest and increase in strength. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late Thursday, with the cold front reaching Carbon County before midnight.
534 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the Rockies with sharp trof over the Western CONUS and Great Lakes region. At the surface, lee trof stretches from eastern Montana into the Nebraska Panhandle. Upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains tonight, with warmer air moving into the area. Upper ridge breaks down Thursday night as lead impulse ejects out of western CONUS trof.
The upper ridge currently over the Rockies and High Plains shifts east over the Plains states on Thursday. The broad latitude upper trough approaches over the western U. with the initial short wave trough embedded in the longer wave trough lifting out across the forecast area overnight Thursday night. That westerly downslope flow is expected to produce very dry conditions over the western half of the forecast area Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s and relative humidity values drop into the 10-15% range.
307 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies now prevail across the entire region, thanks to the ridge of warm, high pressure in place. Thursday night, the flow aloft will be from the southwest as cloud cover, winds, and the chance for rain showers increase as the next trough of low pressure arrives from the west.
A cold front will push southward across the area on Thursday morning bringing much cooler temperatures and increased winds as well as a few mountain showers.
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX/ Tonight and tomorrow should be relatively quiet as upper ridging dominates. Winds will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as a lee trough develops ahead of an upper trough.
The high pressure currently over the area will move off during the day tomorrow, before a front moves into the area. While the front will be generally dry for the lower elevations, the mountains will see a better chance.
Upper low across southwest Texas providing some denser cirrus across southeast Oklahoma this evening with another batch spreading toward north central Texas. Temperatures at a few locations running cooler than hourly forecast at the moment but overall dewpoints are holding close to or ahead of forecast so expect overnight lows to be on target.
328 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Tonight: An upper-level ridge is currently located, and will remain over, Colorado throughout the short term forecast period (Wednesday 6PM through Thursday 6PM). During the overnight hours, the response from the upper-level ridge will be dry air and dry conditions. Thursday: The upper-level ridge axis will be over the eastern plains tomorrow afternoon, and behind the axis will be gusty, downslope winds over and downstream of the Rocky Mountains. Low relative humidity values will be a response to the downslope winds across the region, with the lowest values over the I-25 corridor and San Luis Valley.
/issued 351 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ High pressure will settle across our area tonight, as light surface winds will gradually shift out of the south. With only a few high clouds and light winds, we will expect another night of radiational cooling keeping low temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than average for early Fall mornings. A building ridge aloft with increasing south winds will warm Thursday to more mild and seasonably normal temperatures.
First cold front moves through the region on Thursday bringing breezier conditions and a few passing light showers along and mainly north of Interstate 80.
Warm, dry weather will end overnight in eastern Oregon, and Thursday morning in western Idaho as a Pacific cold front moves through. Front will bring showers, brief gusty northwest winds, and much cooler temps.
842 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 High pressure will slide east of the area tonight as a trough approaches from the northwest on Thursday. A cold front will cross the state late Thursday brining cooler temperatures and showers.
Calm winds currently over central OK are anticipated to progress eastward with the ridge axis. /issued 351 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ High pressure will settle across our area tonight, as light surface winds will gradually shift out of the south. With only a few high clouds and light winds, we will expect another night of radiational cooling keeping low temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than average for early Fall mornings. A building ridge aloft with increasing south winds will warm Thursday to more mild and seasonably normal temperatures.
The cold front is clearing the area to the south and drier, cooler air is building into north and central Georgia. Low temperatures overnight are on track to drop into the 40s across much of the forecast area, and even into the upper 30s in the higher elevations in far northeast Georgia. /Issued 252 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019/ A cold front is expected to exit the area this afternoon with no significant additional rain expected. Much cooler temperatures are expected the next 2 nights with forecast temperatures running 3-6 degrees below normal across the area tonight and similar for Thursday night.
329 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Rain continues this afternoon through tonight courtesy of a cold front tracking into western NY and a deepening coastal low.
1130 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 A cold front was currently well offshore with high pressure ridging in from the west. Fair and dry weather expected Thursday and Friday under strong high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. Guidance has been trending cooler with overnight lows.
A pretty strong cold front will pass through the region Thursday afternoon, dropping high temperatures into the upper 40s near the Idaho and Oregon borders to the low 70s in the central Nevada hot spots. Another cold front with more moisture comes on the weekend where northern mountains could actually pick up a few inches of snow and some flakes could hit the valley floors. Upper trough axis over the Great Basin will swing east today, dragging a potent cold front with it. The trough swings east quickly and is replaced Friday by roughly zonal flow, drier and cooler still than today.
107 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure prevails amidst moderate nwly flow.
302 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 The Ohio Valley sits in front of a large upper level trough centered over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ozarks. The trough continues to steadily move east and push the high east over Indiana and Kentucky tonight. Today, the high pressure continuing to build over the area will provide clear skies and WNW winds 5-12 mph. This will result in a dry cool day with highs only reaching the low 60s for all but the Bluegrass of Kentucky which will only see the upper 50s. This is about 10 degrees cooler than normal. High pressure ridging from Hudson Bay to the Ohio Valley sliding toward the East Coast will keep our weather dry with partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.
350 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Lingering showers will dissipate for much of the area this morning, but will continue through tonight for the I-80 corridor and ridges. Shower activity is expected to slowly wane over much of the area through the morning, with shower chances continuing along and north of I-80 and along the ridges through tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect until 2 PM for Garrett and Eastern Tucker where the highest wind gusts are possible. Though warmer than Thursday, highs on Friday will once again be limited. The building upper ridge will keep dry and warming weather in the forecast for much of the weekend.
309 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure will build in through late Friday.
Mid & high-level clouds should exit the region by this evening, but anticipate an increase in cloud cover once again overnight ahead of upper-level troughing over the western CONUS. Ahead of a strong cold front scheduled to move across the high terrain and the High Plains late Thursday, prevailing winds will turn to the southwest and increase in strength.
and Friday High pressure will drift across the western Great Lakes today, which will bring in periods of sunshine, especially during the afternoon hours. The high will drift east tonight as lows fall into the lower to middle 30s. Winds will turn southeasterly on Friday on the backside of the high with high clouds increasing ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.
However, upper lvls more w-sw and cirrus continue to generate into area from upper low, cut off from main westerlies, being steered to the east by separate southern stream jet. Precip with this low will remain near coast and not affect cwa. This low is also keeping height and thickness fields in place and expect persistence in temps from yesterday into today, and only a few degrees warmer on Friday under continued dry airmass.
This will spell the return of southerly winds, ample sunshine, and warmer temperatures. Friday/Weekend: An increasing pressure gradient ahead of the next large upper trough emerging from the Intermountain West will provide breezy southerly winds on Friday, with temperatures continuing to warm into the lower 70s.
High pressure will result in dry conditions throughout the short term period.
229 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Expansive surface ridging encompasses much of the eastern half of the U. Ridge axis will slide east of the area on Friday allowing temperatures to return closer to average for mid October.
209 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A cold front was currently well offshore with high pressure ridging in from the west. Dry conditions will continue overnight and Friday with a ridge of high pressure moving in from the west. A cutoff low drifting underneath the ridge along the Gulf Coast states is expected to merge with a potential tropical system (NHC now has a 70% chance of development within the next 48 hours) during this period.
1023 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Mostly cloudy and cooler conditions continue this afternoon as upper ridging builds to the west.
Surface flow becomes more southeast, but despite the poor mixing inherent in the wind direction, warmer air above the boundary layer is headed in our direction. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated before and while the cold front moves across western South Dakota and into the western CWA early Friday morning.
1042 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the Rockies with sharp trof over the Western CONUS and Great Lakes region. At the surface, lee trof stretches from eastern Montana into the Nebraska Panhandle. Upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains tonight, with warmer air moving into the area. Upper ridge breaks down Thursday night as lead impulse ejects out of western CONUS trof. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures expected on Friday behind the cold front.
317 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Forecast remains on track for warmer temperatures today as a broad, progressive ridge shifts east across the region during the day. Once the ridge axis is east of us by late morning/early afternoon, south-southwesterly winds will pick up and temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees area wide. The longwave pattern remains active into Friday as a deepening trough to the west will have an 80-90kt jet max pushing through New Mexico, and west-southwesterly surface flow up to 20kts by mid afternoon over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Max temperatures will climb higher from todays values and may be further enhanced by compressional heating out ahead of a cold front marching south through the Texas Panhandle late in the afternoon and early evening.
933 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Current satellite pictures are showing some upper level cloudiness moving southeastward ahead of an upper ridge axis. The warm upper level ridge will shift eastward tonight and Thursday ahead of the next trough digging into the western U. However, some ridgelines in/near the foothills will stay warm with sufficient drainage winds. However, the increasing high clouds will likely shave a couple degrees off potential highs, so mid to upper 70s should be common in the lower elevations, with a couple spots possibly touching 80F. An initial short wave trough is expected to move across the state Thursday night and Friday morning which will primarily impact the mountains. Some showers may spread onto the plains Friday afternoon as the upper trough tracks eastward.