Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The depth of the cold pool behind the front that moved through yesterday is not very deep and apparently is not extending up as high as Marfa where temperatures are currently warmer than MAF.
628 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry weather will continue this morning as high pressure moves off to the east.
602 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Sustained winds have remained below 40 MPH with wind gusts remaining below 58 MPH over the last few hours, therefore the High Wind Warning for the Interstate 80 corridor including Arlington and Elk Mountain has been expired. The High Wind Warning for Interstate 80 between Laramie and Cheyenne has been cancelled due to winds dropping well below criteria. The High Wind Warning is being continued until 6 AM along Interstate 80 including Arlington and Elk Mountain due to gusts of 60 MPH remaining possible.
Low pressure over Missouri will move painstakingly slow towards the east over the next 24 hours (and beyond) as upper level low continues to deepen and cutoff from the main northern stream. The upper low will continue heading slowly east, reaching western Virginia by 12Z Sat with some indications of then working more north and actually retrograding briefly as it weakens, fills and finally pulls away from the area by 00Z Sun.
214 AM PDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Patchy freezing fog this morning and again Friday morning for valley areas, most widespread in the Sierra.
1012 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry weather will continue this morning as high pressure moves off to the east.
Winds on the backside of the high pick up out of the south West River Friday, with an uptick in temperatures. The period opens Friday night with a strong cold front beginning to enter the far northwestern corner of the CWA.
Now, today through Friday, a broad ridge of high pressure from the southwest will allow high temperatures to climb will above normal and no chance of any precipitation.
Temperatures will quickly warm today and peak tomorrow as high pressure moves into the region.
/Today through Friday/ Deep upper low centered over NW AR/SW MO this morning continues to slowly churn ewd, keeping cloud cover in place across the nrn half of our region. Moisture being wrapped around the upper low into the wrn flank has resulted in some shwrs across NE OK/NW AR, and model consensus is that these showers will eventually wrap around into SE OK/SW AR later this morning. This will remain a possibility for the nern half of the region through the evening hours, until the center of the upper low wobbles e into TN. Strong CAA and lingering cloud cover will result in much cooler and below-average temperatures across the region today, particularly across our nern half.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough axis extending from the Dakotas southward into central Nebraska towards a closed low centered over the OK/AR border. Upstream, a large ridge extended across the western CONUS. At the surface, the region remains between high pressure building in from our west and low pressure centered over northern Arkansas with a tightening surface gradient between the two systems.
A warm front will lift across the Northern Rockies this morning with snow levels rapidly rising from 5000 feet to well over 7000 feet by late morning. This warm front will stall over Northwest Montana later today and help provide a focus for an atmospheric river which will bring plentiful precipitation from Clearwater County into Northwest Montana through Friday. On Friday afternoon and evening, a weather disturbance and associated cold front will drop out of British Columbia and push the precipitation southward once again.
533 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A dry northwest flow will take over today as ridging begins to build into the area. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer east of the Divide, and 5 to 10 degrees warmer west of the Divide this afternoon.
The main rainmaker will become the upper level low pressure system that is currently over northwest Arkansas.
241 AM MST Thu Oct 28 2021 Temperatures will quickly warm today and peak tomorrow as high pressure moves into the region.
348 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A dry northwest flow will take over today as ridging begins to build into the area. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer east of the Divide, and 5 to 10 degrees warmer west of the Divide this afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the area today, and will remain in place for the short term period. These should come to an end this afternoon as some slightly warmer air moves in aloft with the building ridge. On Friday, a trough will make landfall in the Pacific Northwest with the main energy tracking eastward along the US/Canada border.
415 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Brisk northwest flow aloft will continue across the area for one more day, before upper level jet shifts eastward into the central plains tonight as ridge begins to build over CO. West-northwest flow aloft weakens a bit as the upper-level ridge over our area begins to flatten out. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions throughout the day, with little cloud cover and lighter winds. High temperatures are expected to just hit the low- 70s over the plains and mid-60s over some of the higher terrain. The night will be cool, although perhaps a few degrees warmer than the previous few nights, with lows over the plains sitting in the mid- high 30s.
The occluded front work out this afternoon and then the large upper low will sag into the area tonight and remain through Friday.
The gradient should maintain windy conditions beyond sunset , however the high wind gusts should be eliminated with the stable boundary layer returning. The north wind ushering the northern plains airmass will cap high temperatures probably in the low 60s and even some upper 50s possibly in some west central areas as the latest short term models have been trending. The mid latitude cyclone will move into the Ohio Valley and Appalachian region by Friday night.
449 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A deep, high amplitude trough is across the central CONUS at this time. The main trough axis is push through central SD. Upper ridging will build in to the region Friday, with upper flow transitioning from the south/southwest.
The gradient should maintain windy conditions beyond sunset , however the high wind gusts should be eliminated with the stable boundary layer returning. The north wind ushering the northern plains airmass will cap high temperatures probably in the low 60s and even some upper 50s possibly in some west central areas as the latest short term models have been trending.
618 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A longwave trough is gradually making its way across the upper Mississippi valley. The trough brought precipitation to the western side of the Mississippi and will gradually move it eastward. 850mb temperatures today will stay around 3 degC, a bit cooler than yesterday. This is reflected in the surface temperatures which will be in the low 50s today. As the rain moves out tonight, low temperatures will be in the low to mid-40s.
505 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 The High Wind Warning for Interstate 80 between Laramie and Cheyenne has been cancelled due to winds dropping well below criteria. The High Wind Warning is being continued until 6 AM along Interstate 80 including Arlington and Elk Mountain due to gusts of 60 MPH remaining possible.
A deep, high amplitude trough is across the central CONUS at this time. The main trough axis is push through central SD. Upper ridging will build in to the region Friday, with upper flow transitioning from the south/southwest.
High pressure will bring quiet weather conditions to the area through Friday. This is due to high pressure building into the area. On Friday, the ridge axis will shift off to the east. Although confidence remains low, a more northerly track is becoming favored with the low slowly moving across Oregon/N.
More widespread rain is expected to fill in over the area tonight, as the upper low behind the occluded front very slowly moves southeast into the Tennessee Valley. Most guidance has the surface and upper low right over southern Tennessee early Friday morning. With little sunshine expected and some continued cold air advection occurring, highs should be cooler, only reaching the lower to mid 50s in most locations.
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Low pressure will slowly track across the state, crossing the MS River by late this evening. The associated upper low is in generally the same area as the surface reflection and embedded in the base of a large trough that extends all the way to the Canadian border. Models remain consistent in cutting this low completely off from the prevailing flow by early afternoon. The strongest winds are likely to be felt across the higher peaks and exposed ridge tops. Precipitation will come to an end tonight but widespread cloud cover will persist until high pressure starts to build in by the end of the period.
High pressure will build over Utah and southwest Wyoming through Friday.
Drier weather returns for the weekend with cooler temperatures. Have extended the flood watch for western Okanogan and Chelan counties through the night, as it looks like the higher snow levels and rain will continue a few hours longer. Main concerns is potential for mudslides in and near the 2021 burn scars including Cedar Creek and Cub Creek, and to a lesser extent 25 Mile which is further from the crest of the Cascades and may not receive the higher rain amounts. JW 18Z TAFS: Southwest winds are begin to usher in some drier air into the Columbia Basin as a warm front lifts north. A renewed round of rain will spread south into the Spokane area, Pullman, and Lewiston overnight into Friday morning as a cold front drops into the region.
(Friday night through next Thursday) Mid-upper level ridging builds into the region over the weekend.
311 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 The short term forecast is highlighted by above average temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through the forecast area this weekend.
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions will continue across the Mid South over the next day or so as an upper low slowly moves across the eastern United States.
145 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Northwest flow persist over the northern plains, between the exiting trough and the western CONUS ridge. Southwesterly flow and warm air advection beneath the upper ridge will result in a mild, dry Friday.
Freezing temperatures were not achieved in the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau this morning, but could come close early Friday morning if wind speeds remain light enough. Tomorrow may be one of the top 10 days of the year as a weak upper ridge builds over the forecast area. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s in most locations with a few 80s along the Rio Grande which is right around normal for this time of year.
A fairly deep area of low pressure (993 mb) currently centered across southeastern Missouri will continue to track slowly eastward tonight.
An upper level trough will swing through the region late this week and into the weekend supporting a slight chance of showers despite drier air. As SW flow develops, increased mixing will lead to breezy SW surface winds develop overnight and some clearing of the low clouds. Remained near consensus with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
This afternoon through Friday night A broad ridge will be in place over the Great Basin and portions of the PACNW and Northern Rockies today. The ridge will flatten tonight into Friday morning, as a Pacific trough deepens as it moves onshore over the PACNW.
316 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A vertically stacked low pressure system was located over southern Missouri and will make its way to the east over the next 24 hours. A rather tight surface pressure gradient was producing gusty northerly winds as the region was on the western side of the low for the most part. By Friday afternoon, the low will have moved east of the area with some lingering light shower tapering off through the day.
This aforementioned area may drop to near the freezing mark tonight. A broad trough will be found off of the Canadian west coast. A ridge of high pressure will be found over western Canada and another broad trough will be found across Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes. The Panhandles will be affected by short wave troughs that move across the area in the southern stream.
Nearly stacked low pressure system was over southern Missouri early this afternoon continues to move east. It will be cooler Friday behind the low as NNW winds develop. A 500 mb longwave trough will become established across eastern North America.
A ridge of high pressure will settle across the region Friday night. Winds will diminish, and may even become calm for a period, which should allow temps to drop into the lower 30s. All of the forecast area (except the Omaha metro area) has reached freezing or below at least once this year, thus no widespread freezing headlines are anticipated at this time.
Late afternoon Friday, a cold front will slide south out of Canada bringing cooler temperatures.
A transitory upper level ridge will flatten out across the region Friday and Friday night. Went slightly warmer for highs now with upper 60s far western Sandhills to near 60 far eastern areas. Not as cold Friday night, with a strong thermal ridge off the surface with H85 temperatures range as high as 15C. A prefrontal trough also moves in with winds southwest.
A few breaks in the clouds have occurred allowing limited heating into the lower 60s, along with a few shallow light showers.
Also seeing some wrap-around -SHRA sinking S around the closed low across portions of Ern/SE OK and Wrn/SW AR, although sfc obs along the Srn extent of these -SHRA have been hard pressed to record anything measurable.
157 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Gusty conditions persist this afternoon as strong northwesterly winds wrap around the vertically-stacked cyclone currently across southwestern MO. Milder weather is forecast for the weekend as mid-level heights rise in the wake of the exiting cyclone.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 57 51 60 51 / 80 80 60 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 57 50 58 51 / 80 90 60 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 51 56 49 58 49 / 80 80 60 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 60 47 56 49 / 70 80 60 70 50 NC.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Showers developing ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest will overspread the region tonight through Friday.
1122 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Water vapor composite analysis shows a potent upper-level trough and associated frontal boundary impinging on the Florida Peninsula.
As the upper trough continues to progress eastwards towards Ohio, backing winds will focus the light rain towards central and north- central for the afternoon and evening hours. The areas with longest stretch of showers will be for north- central Wisconsin where the combination of the RRJ of a jet plus surface flow over Lake Superior could keep a few showers in place into Friday morning; and east-central Wisconsin for a few wrap around showers as the low pressure system lingers in the region early on Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A longwave trough is gradually making its way across the upper Mississippi valley. The trough brought precipitation to the western side of the Mississippi and will gradually move it eastward. 850mb temperatures today will stay around 3 degC, a bit cooler than yesterday. This is reflected in the surface temperatures which will be in the low 50s today. As the rain moves out tonight, low temperatures will be in the low to mid-40s.
132 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry weather will continue this morning as high pressure moves off to the east.
High pressure will bring warmer temperatures to end the week. We're currently seeing a higher energy amplified pattern across North America with a strong ridge near the west coast and a deep trough through much of the east. This will bring daytime temperatures 6 to 8 degrees above average over the next 36 to 48 hours as the ridge phases in from the west. After warmer temperatures to end the week, daytime highs will be within a few degrees of normal the next 7 days.
High temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than expected under these clouds otherwise the remainder of the area is sunny and on track. Within this stratus light snow and even freezing drizzle did occur this morning mainly in the higher terrain, but drier air aloft has caused that precip to gradually diminish. Tomorrow the warm air advection becomes more established as the ridge of high pressure lifts overhead. High pressure initially dominating the western CONUS will be suppressed by a Canadian trough traversing across the Northern Rockies. Otherwise, temperatures may bump up a few degrees while still under the influence of high pressure, though, zonal flow will truncate WAA aloft.
The lingering cloud cover is eventually expected to clear out overnight, with light winds allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s.
1236 PM PDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Patchy freezing fog is likely again Friday morning for valley areas, most widespread in the Sierra.
High pressure will continue to bring light winds and clear skies to the area through Friday.
After 00z the LLJ begins to lift to the northeast as the low pressure center to our west slides further east. Then, POPs ramp back up Friday morning as strong mid-level vorticity moves into the area with the upper low. The upper low will reside directly overhead through the day and several rounds of on and off light showers are expected.
A wave of low pressure will move through Pacific Northwest on Friday, and is expected to split during the morning. An area of low pressure will develop on the southern end, with a wave remaining for the northern piece of energy.
1129 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Sustained winds have remained below 40 MPH with wind gusts remaining below 58 MPH over the last few hours, therefore the High Wind Warning for the Interstate 80 corridor including Arlington and Elk Mountain has been expired. The High Wind Warning for Interstate 80 between Laramie and Cheyenne has been cancelled due to winds dropping well below criteria. The High Wind Warning is being continued until 6 AM along Interstate 80 including Arlington and Elk Mountain due to gusts of 60 MPH remaining possible.
251 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Expect cloud cover and seasonably mild temperatures to pass over the region this evening ahead of a strong cold front tomorrow evening. With the Friday cold front, expect much colder temperatures for this weekend and the potential for the first lower elevation snowfall.
243 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Largely vertically stacked low pressure over southern MO continues to provide for increased cloud cover east of I-29 although much of the rain has moved east of our coverage area.
236 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry and cool across much of the region as an upper level ridge builds into the Western CONUS. Most locations across the Eastern CONUS sit under cloud cover with precipitation as a longwave trough continues to be positioned over the MO/AR border. 700mb flow will continue to weaken headed into this evening as the trough to the east continues to propagate away from the area.
Warm air and moisture advection northeast of the low associated with a warm moist conveyor aloft has led to widespread steady rain across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois today. Low-level cold air advection on NE to N winds, along with the low clouds and rain, have held temps in the mid 40s to low 50s. This Evening through Tonight Periods of light rain will continue as the low over the Mid Mississippi Valley tracks eastward into Tennessee and Kentucky. The low will begin to fill or weaken overnight, so we can expect rain rates to decrease locally.
Where the sun does come out, expect to see a small rebound in temperatures before we cool back down into the 40s and 50s tonight as cooler air continues to move in. Taking a broader view, satellite shows the giant bowling ball that is our vertically stacked, mature cyclone spinning beautifully over the Ozarks with tongue of moisture from Florida and the Gulf extending up over the eastern portion of the CWA and into the cyclone.
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Vertically stacked low pressure system is just pulling eastward out of the Ozarks, with a warm conveyor belt ahead of it bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers up through central and eastern Kentucky, and on into southern Indiana.
surface reflection of a strong upper low for late October crossing the lower Mississippi Valley. with more of a col/deformation axis setting up between the deep low and a short wave trough moving through Manitoba. Band of rainfall wrapping around the upper low rotating back across Illinois/ Iowa. but the two main protagonists (northern branch energy and southern branch anomalous upper low) will bypass Michigan.
An upper low is centered over southern Missouri this afternoon while a dry slot out ahead of this feature is punching north across central Illinois. In areas where precip tapers off, patchy fog is possible overnight, especially east of I-55 where winds are weakest within an inverted trough. Main upper low is progged to pass just to our south Friday with pin-wheeling vort lobes supporting additional precip chances through the day. Closed upper low will begin to drift northeast along the Appalachians over the weekend with H5 height rises in place across central Illinois in its wake.
An approaching cold front late Friday brings cooler conditions over the weekend, but the area looks to remain dry. Otherwise, Thursday looks to be the mildest day of the next few thanks to an upper level ridge parked overhead. The upper level ridge shifts eastward by Friday as a digging upper level low pressure moves into NorCal. The upper low will bring cooler temperatures heading into the weekend. Latest model guidance shows a few showers will be possible with the upper low, but most shower activity will remain north of the Bay Area.
For Friday a ridge aloft will expand/build across the Northern Plains, with milder temperatures expected, especially over the western CWA where H850 temps will be pushing +10C or greater. The ridge will be short-lived since energy coming ashore western Canada will dig southeast toward the NC CONUS.
A stout upper-level trough has parked over the eastern half of the U.
Water Vapor imagery depicting closed upper low over the Missouri valley with latest surface analysis showing vertically stacked occluded low beneath. HREF members all in good agreement with rain overspreading the entire area tonight as upper low drifts slowly eastward into the TN valley. This forcing setup will translate out of the area on Friday as closed low continues its slow eastward progression.
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A large cutoff upper level low moving across the central Mississippi Valley today has induced an area of broad lift and moisture transport across the area. High pressure building to the west on Friday will help to shove this system out of the area while also serving to tighten the pressure gradient across the area along with increasing subsidence. Weak thermal ridging will keep temperatures near seasonal normals for the weekend, however this will not last.
651 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A large cutoff upper level low moving across the central Mississippi Valley today has induced an area of broad lift and moisture transport across the area. High pressure building to the west on Friday will help to shove this system out of the area while also serving to tighten the pressure gradient across the area along with increasing subsidence. Weak thermal ridging will keep temperatures near seasonal normals for the weekend, however this will not last.