Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
518 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. INTERESTING MIX OF WEATHER TRENDS THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
900 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DRIER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50F OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50F WITH A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL IL BY DAWN TUE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZE HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST EARLY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
730 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE STATE TODAY. COULD BE TRICKY EXACTLY HOW FAR SE THE DRY COOLER AIR GETS.
730 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
635 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINTAINING 20 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT /STRETCHING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA/ SLOWLY CREEPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE N/NE BY WEDS. THEN SPREADING INLAND SUN/MON AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES IN OFF THE GULF.
1147 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DRIER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50F OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50F WITH A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL IL BY DAWN TUE.
726 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0.
643 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND BECOME DEEPLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
1015 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUMP A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WA ON WED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
/ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
930 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
612 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 Very quiet weather pattern in place across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as upper-level ridging continues to build across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies. expect lows early Tuesday morning to range in the lower to middle 50s across much of the area.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP TO IMPROVE THE SMOKY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE LINE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MIXING AND TRANSPORT OF SMOKE.
632 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO CYCLE THE CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN. MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. WITH THE HIGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN TOMORROW. BUT COOLER IN WESTERN WI WHERE THE CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
759 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DEVELOPING AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST HOW DIFFUSE THE COLD FRONT IS. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
1057 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO CYCLE THE CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN. MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. WITH THE HIGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN TOMORROW. BUT COOLER IN WESTERN WI WHERE THE CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
The region continues to be in between high pressure over the desert southwest and a low pressure area and a low pressure area off the coast of Canada.
1116 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. WARANAUSKAS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER.
842 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
827 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE DRIFTED NORTH TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE TUESDAY.
939 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL ND AND WILL SHIFT INTO WRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME DEW POINTS BETWEEN DEVILS LAKE AND VALLEY CITY ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. 00Z NAM IS KEEPING TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREV FCST. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN AGAIN TUE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY.
1031 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS FOUR CORNERS. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE RETURN MOISTURE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS.
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
728 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A COLD FRONT PASSAGE USHERED IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DIMINISHED CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE LOW TEMP FORECAST NEEDED LITTLE ALTERATION AS PER ALREADY CLOSE INCOMING GUIDANCE.
1152 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 Very quiet weather pattern in place across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as upper-level ridging continues to build across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies. expect lows early Tuesday morning to range in the lower to middle 50s across much of the area.
939 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
731 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
653 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.
642 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
WITH THE 5H TROF STILL ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS AFTN PCPN.
836 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL SATURDAY THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE WESTERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IF SOLAR IS NOT LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS AREA COULD SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOSE OF ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ALSO UP IN CANADA SO WILL LIKELY NEED FORCING FROM COLD FRONT TO GET ANY STORMS GOING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON SAT UPR RIDGE FOLDS EWD ACRS THE LAKES W/APPRECIABLE HGT RISES ALOFT. OTRWS BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE UPR 80S-90 WILL BRIDGE MAX TEMPS HIGHER.
710 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF CAPE IS AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
1037 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A highly amplified n-s upper ridge axis over the High Plains will become oriented sw-ne from the the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes over the weekend. VFR conditions expected through the period as low level ridging remains in control across the region.
STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE OVER SEVERAL AREAS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE HEATING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES EASILY ECLIPSED 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH 594-597DM 500MB HEIGHTS RIGHT SMACK OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK AROUND SOME OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL SATURDAY THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE WESTERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IF SOLAR IS NOT LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS AREA COULD SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOSE OF ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ALSO UP IN CANADA SO WILL LIKELY NEED FORCING FROM COLD FRONT TO GET ANY STORMS GOING.
/ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NWRN NM LATE THIS AFTN. THE LOCATION OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE UA RIDGE NOT BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/. AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES VERY SLOW SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE DIFLUENT EASTERN PART OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY THIN.
Most of the rest of the CWA was a little cooler than Thu especially over the Nrn half of the CWA due to a little CAA across the north due to the passing of the upper low. NWly winds in the wake of the upper low allowed the smoke from the Trinity Co fires to waft SEwd into Shasta and Tehama Cos. Significant warming is expected during the weekend as ridging over the 4-Corners region expands NWwd into CA. Thermal belt areas in the higher terrain will also have warm/dry overnite conditions.
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLE WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH HANGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD UP FROM THE BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA TONIGHT.
AS A MID LEVEL GULF TROUGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST THIS WEEKEND.
A COOLER, DRY, AND WINDY SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEYOND 12Z.
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS ARE JUST OFF TO THE WEST. AND KEPT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING WITH THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
The highest rain chances will certainly be before 06Z when the loss of daytime heating helps stabilize the atmosphere, but cannot rule out isolated storms continuing past midnight along residual boundaries. More storms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly across SE NM and the higher terrain. Satl imagery shows the center of the persistent ridge over the fore corners region of the Desert SW. Tomorrow should finally break the streak of 100+ days as the ridge retrogrades a little further west allowing cooler temps aloft.
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF CAPE IS AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
745 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED S/WV ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.
846 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER INHIBITING FACTORS INCLUDE WARMING MID LEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY/EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPR TROUGH. AND LOW CHANCE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS BLOOMING IN THE AFTERNOON WARMTH AS THE WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO.
904 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
1234 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE VALUES STEADILY TRENDING UPWARD. OVER THE SUMMER TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS MIGRATED AROUND AND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THAT IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK TO THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK AROUND SOME OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
1017 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED S/WV ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO LATE TODAY WHILE DRY COLD FRONT PASSED EWD ACROSS OREGON ZONES AND INTO SWRN IDAHO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT REACHED ONTARIO/OR AROUND 640 PM MDT AND BOISE 755 MDT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND COOLER AIR COMES IN SMOKE MAY SETTLE OVER THE SNAKE BASIN.
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
900 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE INCREASING JUST NORTH OF THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AS COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT SSI THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND BEGINNING AT SGJ AROUND 06Z.
813 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ON SAT UPR RIDGE FOLDS EWD ACRS THE LAKES W/APPRECIABLE HGT RISES ALOFT. OTRWS BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE UPR 80S-90 WILL BRIDGE MAX TEMPS HIGHER.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND ALLOW THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO NUDGE NORTH. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U. WILL ERODE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT INVOF FL. THE GFS SHOWS A MID LEVEL COL DEVELOPING OVER FL WITH THE ECM SHOWING NO BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT.
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY THE HIGH END OF ANY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM LOGAN TO SOUTHERN SALT LAKE COUNTY.
WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON MSAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
1129 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RESULTANT VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW (IE NO LOW LEVEL JET/WAA) AND FEEBLE INSTABILITY DON'T REALLY SUPPORT THE ONE OR TWO MODEL OUTLIERS THAT SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE THREATENING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE. /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ SOME MUCH WELCOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AROUND ON SATURDAY.
740 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
WHILE TWO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE ONES RE-CARVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AMIDST AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WSW WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH THE RIDGE ANCHORED AT THE SFC. THIS EVOLUTION TENDS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE 597 HM RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AND SHUNTING SOME OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 88 69 89 / 20 30 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 85 67 87 / 20 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 86 66 87 / 20 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 62 86 / 20 20 20 20.
WITH AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
1217 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS GULF COAST MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS WEST ACROSS GULF COAST. WITH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS AROUND 80. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS ARE JUST OFF TO THE WEST. AND KEPT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING WITH THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KCSV BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
355 AM PDT Tue May 26 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures this week with mainly afternoon and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
153 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN BRIEFLY REPLACED BY A SMALL SCALE RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW HAS SLID INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON.