Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
810 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT PULLING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS TOWARD COLUMBUS THEN SOUTH TOWARD LINCOLN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
Will maintain the south to southwest wind tonight in advance of the cold front which will push through the area during the day on Wednesday.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA WILL FALL AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A cold front will approach KABI late Wednesday afternoon. /ISSUED 345 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper low currently just south of the Big Bend will weaken and lift northeast across south Texas tonight. Temperatures will warm into mid and upper 60s on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
/ISSUED 246 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
615 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
WHILE THERE MAYBE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. FEEL THE BULK OF IT WILL BE SNOW AS THE LOW LAYERS RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
842 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT.
Will continue a brief warming trend tonight and for most of the daytime period tomorrow, before a cold front crosses the region mid to late tomorrow afternoon. Also may see some patchy freezing drizzle on the back side of the line as the moist layer thins. Lows tonight will be a little below freezing, then expect them to rise to the 40s, with a few low 50s over south KY, Wednesday. Then expect readings to crash after the precipitation Wednesday night, with lows in the teens over southern Indiana and the low 20s elsewhere.
835 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. RATHER EXPANSIVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SWRN CONUS WITH REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTING H5 HEIGHTS RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2DM AND WARMING OF 2-3C THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED NORTHEAST INTO A STRENGTHENING CYCLONE. AND SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES TO DEWPOINT FORECASTS OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS LED TO READINGS BACK IN THE LOW 50S WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.
BUT THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE THIS AFTN IS HELPING MORE THIN CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN LAKES NORTH OF WINNIPEG.
After Wed highs largely in the 40s, most of the FA will be freezing by/even shortly before midnight.
High pressure over the region will move eastward as an area of low pressure develops in the western Gulf.
1009 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY.
Snow ratios look to be a bit higher than climatology and generally in the 14 to 15 range during the highest snowfall.
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COURTESY OF WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EAST. AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL FOLLOW AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF A MODERATE STRENGTH CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT. THE TRENDS OF THE LATEST SEVERAL WRF/NAM RUNS HAVE COME AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND NOTABLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. RMCQUEEN RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS THE SOUTH PLAINS IS POSITIONED BETWEEN EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY/LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS. /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY GAINING MOMENTUM ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOON AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE WATERS.
THEN THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION AND PUSH THE AREA OF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE REATURES AND THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION BUT DO EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW FROM ABOUT DENVER NORTHWARD DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROVIDING GOOD CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW HOURS WHILE OTHER FACTORS ARE ALSO PRESENT.
633 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH HAS PROVIDED SOME RELIEF FROM THE ABNORMALLY COLD CONDITIONS THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH ITS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF LAREDO. RSB /ISSUED 227 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED IN SW TEXAS. THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND ITSELF AS IT CHURNS ENEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHWARD WED NIGHT AND FOLLOW IN RIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THE GULF COAST.
TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
958 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
927 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS HEADING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHWRS SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. /ISSUED 404 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ THE NRN OLD MX CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS E THIS AFTERNOON. THUS SATURATING THE LOWER LAYERS FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEY DO INDICATE GREATER MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER 06Z ENTERING LOWER E TX/WCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER SE TX/S LA WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES E. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING ITS HEELS WILL BE ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER WRN ALBERTA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH.
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WAS DEVELOPING AS IT WAS DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. AND THE NORTHERN WAVE WAS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ITS ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CONSISTENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER-MEAN RIDGE ANCHORED TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AT LAUNCH TIME. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WHILE A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
While winds will decrease ever so slightly overnight, it still appears as if temperatures will only bottom out in the lower to middle 30s. Will maintain the south to southwest wind tonight in advance of the cold front which will push through the area during the day on Wednesday.
759 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET BUT CHILLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. JUST AMAZING WHEN YOU CONSIDER NOT ONLY ITS MID MARCH BUT WE HAVE A HIGH SUN ANGLE AND FULL SUNSHINE! HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY.
605 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015 A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BREEZE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF ZONE 4.
1251 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET BUT CHILLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. JUST AMAZING WHEN YOU CONSIDER NOT ONLY ITS MID MARCH BUT WE HAVE A HIGH SUN ANGLE AND FULL SUNSHINE! HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY.
635 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 OVERNIGHT FORECAST BECOMING COMPLICATED BY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS THAN ANTICIPATED. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTATION THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BASIN, THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
Temperatures behind the boundary are slightly cooler than hourly forecasts but are in line with overnight lows. Some isolated showers are continuing to linger however additional accumulations should be limited to the eastern counties and the higher terrain. A disturbance aloft and a surface cold front will move across the area this evening.
/ISSUED 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/ Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights through midweek. This will give way to a mid level trough swinging down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West Coast.
MEANWHILE MID- AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES UNDER A SOUTH BREEZE.
758 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A STRONG WARM FRONT.
The main time frame for the low clouds is late tonight to mid-morning Tuesday. Expect a quick breakup of the low clouds between 15Z and 16Z Tuesday. With the 850mb thermal ridge centered over the CWA tomorrow we can expect unseasonably warm temperatures continuing with morning lows and afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal.
THE WARM FRONT WITH ALL THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAS BARELY MOVED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE METEOROLOGY AFTER DARK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
949 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOSTLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVELS AS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE WATERS AND IS EXITING THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
849 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ALONG I-44 AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EC WANTS TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN WAVE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEPER UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH TENDS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SPITE OF SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE TONIGHT. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS COME INTO PLAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS. BY MID-LATE MORNING THE LOWER LEVEL WARMING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE QUIET AS BRIEF RIDGING MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHERN MN WITH ONLY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR CWA. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN TIER AND NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE GET BOTH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP AND THE WRAP AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
For tonight, strong and broad moist isentropic ascent will overspread the low level frontal boundary resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms forming over eastern Kansas and then spreading east-northeastward into northeastern Kansas and northwestern into northern Missouri. Models have a decent agreement on the track of the low, moving it from west central Missouri, right near the Kansas City area, into northeastern Missouri, around the Kirksville area.
/ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A RIDGE OF PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
907 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
959 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 A Low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to portions of southeast Washington and the central panhandle of Idaho tonight and Tuesday morning.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ALONG I-44 AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW CIGS.
706 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET BUT CHILLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. JUST AMAZING WHEN YOU CONSIDER NOT ONLY ITS MID MARCH BUT WE HAVE A HIGH SUN ANGLE AND FULL SUNSHINE! HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY.
1248 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS THURS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
/ISSUED 236 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OR WASHING OUT OVER THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING, AND VERY SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE COULD BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST/UPPER KEYS, THEN A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS BARELY REACHING KLFT AND KARA. MEANWHILE MID- AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. ONCE PRECIPITATION FORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN COOL A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 30S GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. LATEST NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED COOLER ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
1147 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 OVERNIGHT FORECAST BECOMING COMPLICATED BY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS THAN ANTICIPATED. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTATION THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 349 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND THEN WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
AREAS TO THE EAST SAW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS REACH THE LOW 60S. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE ONSET OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL QG FORCING IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. 1 INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ABOUT HALF OF THAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PLAINS. BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
INCREASED WINDS ABOUT TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS ESTABLISHING A BETTER OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD LATE IN THE WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
538 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BEHIND TODAYS TROUGH A WARMING TREND AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND DUE TO SANTA ANA WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT. LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST HEAT WAVE WE HAD WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 80S TO MID 90S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BUT IS QUICKLY EXITING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MILFORD TO AROUND HANKSVILLE. SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALREADY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS AND A WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AID IN THE SLOW DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. BISMARCK MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING BUT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE LOWER STRATUS SHIELD. AHEAD OF THE LOW. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.
905 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 A Low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to portions of southeast Washington and the central panhandle of Idaho tonight and Tuesday morning.
1019 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 71 54 72 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 70 53 74 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 70 53 75 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 64 47 72 / 10 10 20 10.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT MAINTAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.