Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is also 1020mb high pressure across the nrn Plains which will build into Nebraska tonight and the models show precipitable water falling to around 0. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer short term model blend. This is associated with the approach of an upper low currently along the coast of nrn California.
High pressure ridging prevails across the ArkLaMiss this evening with mainly clear skies across most of the area. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s east to the low 60s in the west.
1041 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 The cooler air is here and it will not be going anywhere anytime soon. The highest winds will be east of I- 29. The low level thermal field will be a bit warmer however so highs will still be on the mild side. Morning lows a touch cooler with the lighter winds, teens to near 20 over snowpack and upper 20s in northwest IA.
Upper level ridge was centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early this morning, with the ridge axis extending northeastward across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia and across the Carolinas. This ridge will slowly drift to the northeast through tonight, with upper level height rises continuing. At the surface, high pressure will settle just northwest of Bermuda, with easterly onshore flow prevailing. Periods of thin cirrus will also occasionally drift overhead on the periphery of the ridge aloft to our southwest. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across southeast Georgia, and the low to mid 50s across northeast Florida.
For now it appears the lower CIGS will stay out of these terminals, but will continue to monitor for the next couple of hours. /issued 417 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021/ This morning a cold front is moving through the Great Lakes region with the front trailing back to the southwest into a dryline over west Texas. For the gulf region high pressure off the mid-Atlantic states extends down into Louisiana and most of Texas with temps remaining in the 60s on southerly winds. Southerly winds will continue the process of slowly increasing the moisture profile today and tomorrow as upper level ridge will suppress development of showers.
Scattered to numerous showers are possible each day with mainly light snow accumulations in the higher terrain above 4000 feet. Factors which will help produce showers across the rest of the region will be embedded circulations rotating within the large upper low and general instability due to cold air aloft which will aid shower development during the late morning and afternoon hours.
535 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Key Points: -Cooler and wetter pattern setting up across the central US.
At the same time, a cold front was moving southward through the Texas Panhandle which will make for an interesting surface wind field for the rest of today. The cold front is expected to continue to advance southward through the rest of the morning hours progressing well into the South Plains.
High pressure will settle overhead tonight and winds will likely decouple. Slightly cooler air with depressed temps aloft expected Friday, but full sunshine and winds less than 5 mph will still make for a pleasant day.
The pattern aloft featured a closed upper low pressure system over California, an upper trough to the north translating across Saskatchewan/Manitoba with southwest flow across the Central Plains ahead of the aforementioned western low. At the surface, high pressure in western Neb will migrate east across SD/northern Neb with winds transitioning from a northerly direction to an easterly one with speeds noticeably lighter than yesterday. Daytime temps are still shaping up to be fairly mild in the low/mid 50s. On Friday, cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of the approaching western upper low. Then the brunt of the storm with widespread precipitation is still on track to impact our region Friday night and through the weekend time frame as the intense upper low pressure system lifts northeast thru the central Rockies and across the plains.
A slow moving cold front will impact winds at the NE OK and NW AR sites at these terminals will see a wind shift to the northeast. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase tonight, mainly across NE OK as the low level jet increases. /Issued 346 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021/ Cold front has pushed into NE OK with impressive post frontal cooling while sustained upstream pressure rises support short term guidance of a continued southward push through the morning. Observational trends and short term guidance support taking a bigger swing at cooler temps north of the front today.
A weak cold front extended from central SK into MT, slowly sinking southeastward with mass of stratus behind it. Today/tonight, weak cold front will dissipate as it sinks southeast. Friday, upper low moves into southern CA.
With strong upper ridging still in place across the the East Coast and a strengthening closed low to our west, this frontal boundary will make a slow southward progression towards the Mid- South today. Rain chances will continue to increase further south as the cold front slowly sags south and stalls near the I40 corridor.
835 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain chances return today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. Slight cold advection behind the exiting cold front will knock temperature readings down about ten degrees Friday, but remnant zonal flow aloft and increasing insolation will aid in maintaining above seasonal average temperature.
High temperatures today are expected to range from 75-80 for most locations except slightly cooler along the immediate coast.
A large closed low crossing through the western states dominates western US weather this period. With no trough during this period, wind will remain light and mostly terrain-driven.
This will be an issue for mostly aviation interests as a low cloud deck is expected to encroach on much of the lower elevations through the morning. Once the low cloud deck clears out, skies should be mostly clear through Friday night. Highs Friday should push into the upper 40s and 50s as large cut-off upper low remains well south of our region down near the four-corners region.
Heavy snow accumulations are expected in the higher elevations of the Tehachapi Mountains into Thursday evening.
The polar jet stream has split, with the southern branch possessing a large cut off low pressure system over southern California and the northern branch positioned across northern parts of the Canadian provinces. This has placed the Northern Rockies under weak high pressure and this will remain the dominant weather pattern through the weekend.
Cooler air moves in today as a cold front moves through the region. A cold front accompanied by a line of showers is moving through the region this morning. Behind the front, cooler air moves in with temperatures decreasing as the day progresses. As a warm front organizes along this boundary, another surge of moisture will bring a chance of precipitation southwest of a Canton to Paris line Friday afternoon and into the evening.
650 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain chances return today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. A second trough will cross the southern half of the region this afternoon. Rain showers will continue tonight as the cold front slowly advances southeastward. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with building high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Cooler air will overspread the region on Friday, but temperatures look to once again be above seasonal averages.
650 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 A cold front will move through the area today with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Low pressure that has dominated the forecast area's weather with showers and some significant snowfall (mountains and Northern California) is shifting farther south over Southern California. The low will be far enough away today to no longer bring much in the way of showers to our forecast area. The low will be near enough to influence areas east of the Cascades with gusty northeast winds into the 20s (mph).
524 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain chances return today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. A second trough will cross the southern half of the region this afternoon. Rain showers will continue tonight as the cold front slowly advances southeastward. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with building high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Cooler air will overspread the region on Friday, but temperatures look to once again be above seasonal averages.
RAP seems to have a decent handle on it so far, showing stratus and low level RH field gradually breaking up through the day as high pressure builds. Cooler today with a brisk northwest wind. An associated cold front passage will take place through mid-day across western and central North Dakota, though most noticeable cold air advection today remains over the northern tier of the state.
Mid level ridging will persist across the southeastern CONUS as a 500 mb low moves down the West Coast. Highs this afternoon will reach the 80s across much of the area and the lower 90s across Starr and Zapata, then drop into the mid to upper 60s tonight and once again reach the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday afternoon. While we can't totally rule out a streamer shower or two, with surface moisture remaining rather shallow and ridging centered over the Gulf, there are no mentionable rain chances through the short term period.
441 AM MST Thu Mar 11 2021 The upper level trough continues to drop southward along California as the low begins to cut off. This are looks to be influenced by the diffluent zone ahead of the trough. The axis of the positively-tilted trough remains across western WY tonight, keeping any further precip with this system confined to the southeast away from the region. Friday, the upper low will start to push into the Four Corners region.
346 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Cold front has pushed into NE OK with impressive post frontal cooling while sustained upstream pressure rises support short term guidance of a continued southward push through the morning. Observational trends and short term guidance support taking a bigger swing at cooler temps north of the front today.
413 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 The weather remains enjoyable across the Florida Keys under the influence of the strong high pressure near the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Temperatures across the island communities are in the low 70s and dew points in the low to mid 60s. The high pressure system parked between the Outer Banks and Bermuda continues to be the main influence in the weather pattern affecting the Florida Keys.
417 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 This morning a cold front is moving through the Great Lakes region with the front trailing back to the southwest into a dryline over west Texas. For the gulf region high pressure off the mid-Atlantic states extends down into Louisiana and most of Texas with temps remaining in the 60s on southerly winds. Southerly winds will continue the process of slowly increasing the moisture profile today and tomorrow as upper level ridge will suppress development of showers.
Forecast area remains on the northern periphery of the persistent upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the work-week. Enough moisture recovery by late in the day Friday for at least a slight chance for some showers into the far north in the vicinity of a weak cold front sinking south into the GA/TN/NC border area.
413 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Cooler today with a brisk northwest wind. An associated cold front passage will take place through mid-day across western and central North Dakota, though most noticeable cold air advection today remains over the northern tier of the state.
845 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Lowered temperatures appreciably for today as cold air advection continues to drive a cold front southward this morning. Mahale (Today and tonight) Showers and storms are struggling to form in our forecast area as a cold front makes its way south. The advancing cold front is expected to stall out just past the northwest half of Oklahoma by mid morning. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will help mitigate fire danger behind the front.
422 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Key Points: -Cooler and wetter pattern setting up across the central US.
Latest surface plots show that a cold front had moved through all of central and southwest Kansas earlier tonight and is currently extends from far southeast Kansas through the southern Texas Panhandle into northeast New Mexico. A cooler airmass behind the front will hold temperatures closer to seasonal values for mid March with highs today expected to remain in the 50s for most locations. Far southwest Kansas could see highs around 60 or the lower 60s. With weak mid/upper level ridging overhead, skies should remain sunny through today. A strong upper level low pressure system over California will slowly move into the Desert Southwest tonight and Friday.
Cooler air moves in today as a cold front moves through the region. Cold front has passed through most of the CWA and is south of I-72. A cold front accompanied by a line of showers is moving through the region this morning. Behind the front, cooler air moves in with temperatures decreasing as the day progresses. As a warm front organizes along this boundary, another surge of moisture will bring a chance of precipitation southwest of a Canton to Paris line Friday afternoon and into the evening.
fog) where the stratus intersects the higher ridges. This will be an issue for mostly aviation interests as a low cloud deck is expected to encroach on much of the lower elevations through the morning. Once the low cloud deck clears out, skies should be mostly clear through Friday night. Highs Friday should push into the upper 40s and 50s as large cut-off upper low remains well south of our region down near the four-corners region.
815 AM PST Thu Mar 11 2021 Ridge is building into the region and expect dry weather.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The deep South Texas wind machine is on, with strong high pressure over the Gulf interacting with lower pressure inland and upstream. Big picture has ridging over the Gulf and a slowly maturing mid level low edging into the Desert Southwest through Friday night.
1137 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Some rain will occur along and in advance of a cold front dropping down from the north later today into Friday morning. Much cooler but dry weather is in store for weekend. NW sections will see temperatures drop close to freezing by day break.
This will be followed by rising heights over our region tonight as low over southern CA becomes completely cut off, and flat ridging builds from the PacNW to northern Rockies. JKL Still watching the large low pressure that will move out of the Central Rockies and into the Central Plains this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Lower Keys and nearshore Gulf waters show a northeast wind. This has led to cooler waters and therefore a more stable air mass just above the water's surface. Surface observations show temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with dew points comfortably in the low to mid 60s. Winds will slowly be on the decline going into the end of the week as the high slowly migrates further east. Meanwhile, deep layer ridging aloft will set up across the region and will keep substantial subsidence over the region and severely limit rain chances. Thereafter, high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through Friday night before moving sufficiently east.
Cooler air will also continue to move into the area as a cold front moves through the region.
Satellite imagery shows clouds along the NV border and a southward-moving upper low off central California.
(This evening through Friday) The forecast the next 24 hours will be modulated by the cold front that has pushed southeast of I-44 today. The ongoing convection may reinforce the cold front and stall/delay its the northward advancement. Therefore, opted to trend toward the cooler end of guidance for tomorrow's highs given the abundant cloud cover/precipitation expected along and north of the effective surface front--especially since yesterday's runs of the global models (i.
216 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Cold front has pushed into far northwest Arkansas early this afternoon, extending southwest to near a Tahlequah, Okemah line.
1213 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Band of clouds with 500 mb through/sfc cold front from NW MN into south central ND.
119 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain showers are likely through Friday morning with the approach and passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. Showers will slowly shift south of the forecast area along with the sfc cold front through early Friday morning, with high pressure and dry air building in after its passage. An upper low will move into New England early this weekend and help drive a second, dry cold front and more NW flow aloft through the Upper Ohio River Valley.
351 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak backdoor cold front is forecast to move over our area this weekend. Temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 70s will fall back into the mid to upper 60s by sunset. Lows still expected to range from the upper 40s well inland, to the lower to mid 50s closer to the coast.
Upper ridging over the Gulf will continue to build through Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface, Bermuda high pressure will continue to nose into the forecast area while a weak cold front begins to sag southward toward the Tennessee Valley.
249 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Band of clouds with cold front will push east and clearing which is entering the Devils Lake area will spread east through early evening. This will leave most of the night clear across the area with diminishing wind as high pressure moves south. Sunny Friday and warmer air will move in with a big rise in temps during the day reaching the 40s, with around 50 DVL basin.
Some brief breaks in the clouds have allowed for temperature to rise into the low 60s for much of the area. The severe threat remains minimal, but non-zero with abundant shear, especially in the lowest levels with effective bulk shear near 50kts and 0-1km SRH near 200.
Northwest flow at the surface will weaken overnight as high pressure settles in. A weak secondary cold front will try to settle south towards highway 14 later tonight and more than any additional cooling it could provide the weak convergence along it and the wet snow on the ground could allow fog to develop.
/Updated at 1129 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021/ Forecast adjustments were made to the high temperatures for this afternoon as the high clouds have basically derailed most folks getting to 80 degrees today. Otherwise, there aren't many weather changes to speak of in the short term with high pressure continuing to dominate.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains north of central Florida through late week, continuing a low level onshore flow across the region.
1028 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Next 500 mb short wave trough moving thru SW Manitoba and into north central ND at 16z.
Broad high pressure off the eastern seaboard continues to ridge southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With that being said, mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures can be expected again today with temperatures topping out in the low 80's. Strong high pressure ridging in from the northeast will produce rain- free conditions and gusty east-northeast winds through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area and winds die off quickly tonight.
Low level cold advection and strong anticyclonic flow trajectories will lead to surface ridging over Southeast Michigan Friday. 5C to 850mb supports high temperatures Friday of around 50 degrees for many areas, cooler north and near the Lakeshore. Strong upper level confluence will lead to stable surface anticyclone over Southeast Michigan this weekend.
1034 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 At mid-morning, a cold front was located near a Shawnee to Jay line in Oklahoma and extending back into far southwest Missouri.
An uptick in convection will be possible with some increase in the low level jet atop the surface front tonight.
Moisture continues to increase out ahead of a cold front today with mid/high clouds dominating amidst light/moderate sly/swly winds with low end gusting possible. Tonight said cold front will approach from the north, possibly favoring MVFR cigs at TRI by mid/late morning Friday. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 53 75 55 73 / 0 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 55 69 53 64 / 0 10 40 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 73 54 68 51 64 / 0 10 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 49 63 47 59 / 0 10 60 30 30.
232 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 Winds continue to be out of the east to northeast and is helping to keep temps cooler than yesterday. The upper low currently situated over the West Coast will be approaching the Four Corners region by tomorrow morning. Models hint at some marginal mid-level lift tomorrow morning ahead of the upper low and develop some showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. Large scale ascent ahead of an upper low expected to be centered over Arizona Friday evening continues to be progged to help in the initiation of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
253 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 A mid level low was located over southern California this afternoon within a mean trough from Montana into the eastern Pacific.
A 1017mb low was also analyzed along the cold front near Springfield, Missouri. Forecast is on track with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s areawide with light rain possible north of I-40. With strong upper ridging still in place across the the East Coast and a strengthening closed low to our west, this frontal boundary will make a slow southward progression towards the Mid- South today. Rain chances will continue to increase further south as the cold front slowly sags south and stalls near the I40 corridor.
Strong southwest to west wind gusts persist late this afternoon in the wake of a strong cold front that cleared the forecast area earlier today. High pressure then moves over the region Friday night resulting in clear skies and very good radiational cooling conditions (some spots inland could drop down toward zero).
252 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 A developing warm front across Wyoming this afternoon will lift north and east into wrn Nebraska. While this is occurring, a Canadian cold front across the Dakotas will drift south into the upper Missouri Basin. The temperature forecast for highs Friday uses the short term model blend which is cooler than the 50 percentile of the model blend. This rain is most likely across srn Nebraska where the NAM and GFS models show a warm front lifting north through wrn KS. The warm front will continue to lift very slowly north Friday night and precipitable water will approach 0.
123 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 High pressure off the southeast Coast has a ridge anchored into GA and AL, while a southerly fetch of moisture continues off the central and western Gulf of Mexico into the lower MS and OH valleys. A cold front dropping southeast through southern IL and MO will sag into KY, far northwest TN, and northern AR late tonight into early Friday morning. A ridge of theta-E at 9-8h will flow parallel to this boundary, maintaining at least light to moderate rainfall and perhaps a few thunderstorms well to our north.
Southeast winds are strengthening this morning as Gulf high pressure interacts with interior lower pressure. Mid level ridging will persist across the southeastern CONUS as a 500 mb low moves down the West Coast. Highs this afternoon will reach the 80s across much of the area and the lower 90s across Starr and Zapata, then drop into the mid to upper 60s tonight and once again reach the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday afternoon. While we can't totally rule out a streamer shower or two, with surface moisture remaining rather shallow and ridging centered over the Gulf, there are no mentionable rain chances through the short term period.