Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
They are associated with an upper level low over the ArkLaMiss. A few light showers are possible near sunrise over northeast Mississippi as the upper low begins to lift northeast and into our area. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide with light patchy fog possible. Overnight, a weak upper level low pressure system will begin to track northeastward through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The upper low will move off into Middle Tennessee by late in the afternoon hours of Sunday. By midnight, a cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South.
400 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 This morning the surface analysis shows a high pressure remains just to the east centered across the eastern portions of Carolinas. The models are in good agreement on this feature pulling northeast and becoming an open wave ahead of a notable developing longer wave trough axis across the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs around 5 degrees below normal.
324 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 A cold front will move across Illinois this afternoon and tonight, bringing periodic showers to the area.
Temps are ranging in the 50s, with winds around 5-10 mph after a surge(20- 30 MPH) earlier tonight with the cold frontal passage. Over the next 48 hours, the region will endure below normal temperatures thanks to a cold frontal passage and subsequent cooler air working into the area from the north.
Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Rain chances will begin to increase late Sunday night as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
203 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Other than a slightly faster movement of the cold front (late this evening) into the WFO PAH forecast area, the model guidance the last several days has been fairly consistent in the timing of the cold front through the area.
Three main things to focus on this morning, starting with the upper level closed low currently over the lower MS River region. This low will translate to the northeast throughout the day and as it does, will drag some limited moisture into Middle TN.
346 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Temperatures and dew points are in the low 60s across most of the region under clear skies with light wind. Clearer skies today should allow temperatures to warm into the low to middle 80s. A weak upper level low over North Mississippi will track across Middle Tennessee into Kentucky today. This feature may spark a few rain showers over Northeast Mississippi or near the Tennessee River in West TN today, however weak ridging ahead of an approaching longwave trough should help to suppress showers especially over central and western portions of the Midsouth. Overnight, a fast moving cold front associated with a deepening longwave trough will approach from the West.
240 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 A much needed cold front continues its trek south, as of 3AM entering the northern portions of the Texas Panhandle, and will eventually pass south through the South Plains and Rolling Plains toward the I20 corridor by late this morning.
1155 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue overnight into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will surge southward as an upper trough digs into northern tier of the US.
338 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Very hot temperatures expected again today with potential record highs before a strong cold front arrives this evening. A large-scale trough over the Northern Plains will help send a strong cold front south. Ahead of this trough an intense thermal ridge has developed over the area and will lead to very hot conditions this afternoon. A deepening trough over the central U. will bring a strong cold front through the region around sunset this evening.
9 micrometer difference low cloud/fog imagery, as well as the night-time microphysics view indicated most of the lower altitude clouds have dissipated (for the moment) across the Tennessee Valley. A look at various water vapor imagery indicated an upper low spinning over the AR-LA-MS region. 2 um respectively) but was present at the lower 7. Low temperatures in the lower 60s look good. The upper level low will continue moving northeast through middle TN and KY Sunday morning. Showers may linger into Sunday night as a secondary trough axis pushes east behind the low/trough.
Temperatures should be much cooler than yesterday.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this morning and become oriented more SW-NE as low level cyclogenesis occurs across southwest portions of Oklahoma.
1202 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020 The High Wind Warning for the South Laramie Range, North Snowy Range Foothills, and Central Laramie Range/Southwest Platte County expired at 6 PM. Sustained northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will diminish this evening following the passage of a cold front. Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph will continue through sunset as a cold front moves through the area. Strong winds still occurring in the wind prone areas as of 2 Pm and with a bit slower movement of a cold front have opted to extend the High Wind Warning until 6 PM. The cold front that is pushing south across the CWA is expected to clear the CWA early this evening.
MVFR ceilings are forecast to lift northward across Eastern Oklahoma ahead of a strong cold front approaching the region from the north. The cold front front looks to move into Northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and spread south southeast through the CWA. Timing of cold front still on track with boundary pushing to near I-44 by late afternoon.
Currently, ridging aloft stretches westward across the state in tandem with weak surface ridging.
A band of light precipitation is currently spanning from central Nebraska into northwestern Iowa in association with a cold front that has since pushed into central Kansas and northwestern Missouri. As the trough deepens overhead and we transition out of our recent zonal upper-level pattern, a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern sets up that will both bring cooler temperatures and continued breezy days.
a cold front will drop SE into the area Sun evening.
This seems reasonable given the abundance of Gulf moisture that will advect/pool ahead of the surface cold front. Temperatures this afternoon will range between mid 80s south of I-44 where periods of sunshine will persist, to mid 70s north of the interstate where high-level clouds ahead of the cold front will be present.
1101 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 More "Fall-like" weather is on our doorstep this afternoon as a cold front begins to slowly push across the Dakotas. High based light rain risks tied with mid-lvl frontogenesis will begin to develop along and south of the Highway 20 corridor after midnight and quickly shift south of the forecast area by daybreak. Sunday: Upper troughing beginning to push further into the Northern Plains on Sunday with low-lvl CAA intensifying through the morning.
A cold front will enter the region between 28/01Z-03Z, first impacting HOB and MAF with strong N-NE winds. WV imagery shows the upper trough now over the ArklaTex, w/the west coast ridge nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico behind it. Models have sped up the cold front over the past 24 hours, but diurnal heating should slow it some Sun afternoon between KLUB and KMAF, as is typical, and then the front should pick up speed after peak heating. The NAM, ECMWF, and SREF all keep developing isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of the front on the higher terrain down south.
Northwest flow continues as a ridge of high pressure continues to build offshore. The ridge of high pressure will nudge closer to the coast on Sunday beginning a week long stretch where it will dominate the weather pattern with warm dry conditions.
Initial cold front dropping through the central plains, while secondary cold front drops through eastern Montana/North Dakota. The rest of the week features ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trof over the upper midwest/Great Lakes. Series of dry cold fronts will pass through the area with a few periods of gusty northwest wind. NW winds will start to increase again Sunday morning as another low pressure system crosses the region.
Low-level CAA will also begin to intensify with the aid of NW winds, causing temperatures to feel noticeably cooler compared to yesterday, as highs across the region only climb into the 60s. Unfortunately, accumulations look to remain minor if any, due to the amount of dry air residing in the lower atmosphere.
High temperatures today will be cooler with upper 50s to lower 60s.
A cold front will drop SE through the state this evening and overnight. This will allow for warmer temps for much of the CWA this Sun. a cold front will drop SE into the CWA by this evening. Expect drier and cooler air to filter into the state by Mon night.
Initial cold front dropping through the central plains, while secondary cold front drops through eastern Montana/North Dakota. The rest of the week features ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trof over the upper midwest/Great Lakes. Series of dry cold fronts will pass through the area with a few periods of gusty northwest wind.
This represents a forecast cooler than the guidance blend which tends to ignore the effects of high clouds. A blend of the warmer guidance blend and the cooler short term model blend plus bias correction suggested highs in the lower 60s Monday. The models continue to show a deep upper low forming across Hudson bay and an upper level ridge forming across the wrn U.
High pressure aloft will be in control this week for dry and warmer weather.
250 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2020 Dry conditions and clear skies will continue for the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds over the West Coast.
737 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Rain showers return late Monday with an approaching cold front. An amplifying ridge in response to strong troughing over the Plains will maintain dry and warm weather today. Warm, moist air will be shunted over the Upr Ohio Valley with the advance of a deepening midwrn trough. Temperatures will thus remain above average into Monday, but the encroachment of that trough/cold front will increase rain chance as the day progresses. Cold frontal passage is not expected to be decisive with a parallel, split-flow regime projected.
Sunny and a little cooler today with temperatures dropping toward seasonable levels. Near-freezing or below freezing temperatures in most locations tonight. High pressure rebuilds over NV beginning on Monday, with temperatures trending warming once again. Northwesterly flow aloft today and tonight will bring dry but cooler air into the region. Lows tonight will be cooler than recent nights, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to low 30s in many valley locations. High pressure building in from the west on Monday will kick off a warming trend, with continued dry conditions and relatively light winds.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees to start the week before high pressure rebuilds and pushes afternoon highs back to near record levels the second half of the week. The eastern flank of the broad ridge of high pressure from the eastern Pacific is weakening over the desert southwest as a trough digs into the northern plains. As it digs immediately downstream we will see a moderately cooler northerly flow over SE AZ.
311 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Upper pattern beginning to amplify with ridge building off the Pacific Northwest and trof digging into the Great Lakes. Pacific upper high will push into the Pacific Northwest early this week, with low over Ontario.
MVFR ceilings/and or visibilities late tonight around 09Z ahead of cold front moving into east Tennessee later Monday. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 66 81 56 65 / 40 30 70 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 65 80 57 62 / 40 30 50 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 80 64 80 55 62 / 40 30 60 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 60 80 57 62 / 20 20 30 70 70 TN.
High pressure aloft strengthening along the West Coast will bring additional cold air south across Utah today. Expansion of the high pressure across the western states will maintain dry conditions and bring a warming trend beginning early in the week.
Three main things to focus on this morning, starting with the upper level closed low currently over the lower MS River region. This low will translate to the northeast throughout the day and as it does, will drag some limited moisture into Middle TN. Second on our list of things to talk about is the passage of a cold front on Monday.
642 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this morning and become oriented more SW-NE as low level cyclogenesis occurs across southwest portions of Oklahoma.
751 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Rain showers return late tomorrow with an approaching cold front. Areas that observe any periods of clearing may experience breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. But, the encroachment of that trough/cold front to our west will increase rain chance as the day progresses; showers may be spotty late Monday afternoon due the interference of dry air. Cold frontal passage is not expected to be decisive with a parallel, split-flow regime projected.
400 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Breezy conditions, along with gradual drying and clearing skies are expected throughout the day today as upper level ridging build over the Western US. Ridging continues to build over western US today, with northwesterly winds keeping cooler temperatures over the area today.
Mid-level flow is currently backing ahead of trough digging into the central United States. At the surface, a cold front is currently positioned from the Great Lakes southwestward through northwestern MO and into the Texas Panhandle. High clouds associated with the trough have spread into the northwestern half of the CWA and will continue to move southeastward through the morning. By late morning, forcing directly tied to the advancing cold front will lead to a narrow band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of central MO to west-central IL. Behind this front, a cooler airmass will settle into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday. during this period as the trough responsible for our early week FROPA holds over the eastern U. and a ridge builds over the West Coast.
202 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Breezy northeast to east winds will push smoke west of the Sierra crest through Monday, and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average.
550 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Other than a slightly faster movement of the cold front (late this evening) into the WFO PAH forecast area, the model guidance the last several days has been fairly consistent in the timing of the cold front through the area. Heavily weighted the NAM-WRF ARW and NMM guidance, along the the CMC (Canadian) model, for the movement of the cold front through the region tonight through Monday morning.
A cold front will move into the area after 28/06Z bringing -SHRA conditions to most terminal sites followed by a wind shift to the northwest with winds increasing to 12 kts. Winds to remain elevated around 5 to 10 mph tonight ahead of a cold front the will move through the region on Monday. High temperatures on Monday to average in the lower to middle 70s.
at 3 AM, temperatures across the fcst area ranged from the lower 60s across the lower Ark rvr valley, to 50s on the Palmer and Raton Mesa. A much cooler day is in store across the area (YAY!!). Nighttime lows should also remain chilly, getting down into the mid- 30s over the plains and just below freezing in some of the mountain valleys.
Some scattered showers/storms will become possible mid/late afternoon over the region ahead of a strong cold front forecast to push into the region. /Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ A strong cold front will move rapidly south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Cooler and much drier weather will then prevail for much of the upcoming week.
A strong cold front will result in gusty northerly winds this afternoon and evening for all three terminals. /issued 240 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ A much needed cold front continues its trek south, as of 3AM entering the northern portions of the Texas Panhandle, and will eventually pass south through the South Plains and Rolling Plains toward the I20 corridor by late this morning.
Dry conditions and clear skies will continue for the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds over the West Coast.
408 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 A strong cold front will move rapidly south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Cooler and much drier weather will then prevail for much of the upcoming week.
Low-level CAA will also begin to intensify with the aid of NW winds, causing temperatures to feel noticeably cooler compared to yesterday, as highs across the region only climb into the 60s. Unfortunately, accumulations look to remain minor if any, due to the amount of dry air residing in the lower atmosphere. Upper level trough axis will slide overhead the region Monday, resulting in continued breezy northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures, as highs struggle into the mid 50s to low 60s.
Breezy conditions, along with gradual drying and clearing skies are expected throughout the day today as upper level ridging build over the Western US. Ridging continues to build over western US today, with northwesterly winds keeping cooler temperatures over the area today.
An upper level trough currently over the Northern Plains will dig southward through the short term period, becoming extended from the western Great Lakes to northern Texas by Monday evening. The gradient doesn't relax much tonight into the day Monday ahead of approaching high pressure, so will see wind speeds likely stay in the 10 to 20 mph range overnight, then increase back into the 15 to 25 mph range Monday morning before diminishing some in the afternoon as the high moves over the area. High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s.
1037 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Mean-layer ridging persists across the Florida Keys.
Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Rain chances will begin to increase late Sunday night as a cold front approaches the region from the west. By Monday morning the cold front should be on our doorstep and will move through the ArkLaMiss region during the day on Monday.
Temperatures should be much cooler than yesterday. Cooler air continues to push into the area for Monday and Monday night.
Looking at satellite imagery this morning reveals a potent storm moving into the Gulf of Alaska while an upper level ridge builds downstream. Low temperatures will be similar or even a few degrees cooler than was was experienced back on September 9.
440 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 The main concerns for this forecast package will be in regards to a cold front that will progress through the region from northwest to southeast today, bringing with it falling temperatures through the day as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
749 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Rain showers return late tomorrow with an approaching cold front. Areas that observe any periods of clearing may experience breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. But, the encroachment of that trough/cold front to our west will increase rain chance as the day progresses; showers may be spotty late Monday afternoon due the interference of dry air. Cold frontal passage is not expected to be decisive with a parallel, split-flow regime projected.
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 The main concerns for this forecast package will be in regards to a cold front that will progress through the region from northwest to southeast today, bringing with it falling temperatures through the day as well as the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
After Monday, temps will struggle to stay in the low to mid 70s each day through the rest of the week. The cold front that will be responsible is currently located from Wisconsin to the TX/OK panhandles and will begin to move aggressively SE today through tonight. All locations will do this with the passage of the cold front.
Cold front is on track to move through the area on Monday.
1253 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Water vapor shows deep trof extending through the Northern Plains. Little change in the weather pattern expected through the week, with long wave trof gradually shifting into the eastern CONUS.
126 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Rain showers return late tomorrow with an approaching cold front. Areas that observe any periods of clearing may experience breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. But, the encroachment of that trough/cold front to our west will increase rain chance as the day progresses; showers may be spotty late Monday afternoon due the interference of dry air. Cold frontal passage is not expected to be decisive with a parallel, split-flow regime projected.
This has dislodged some colder air from Canada and is currently making its way down the High Plains. Areas across eastern New Mexico into the South Plains will see the highest values on the order of anywhere between 9-12 mb/3hr. Additionally, given the amount of blowing dust with the last strong cold front, some blowing dust can be expected again. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow following the cold front. Temperatures at 850mb will be some 15-20C cooler than today making up for the very warm past several days. Upper level pattern will remain highly amplified through the week with a trough across the eastern CONUS and a ridge across the western CONUS.
Monday will see an upper low drop south from eastern Manitoba into Minnesota. Otherwise track of upper low will keep scattered showers east of the Red River with dry weather in E ND. Breezy once again and a bit cooler. On Tue there will be a sharp mid-CONUS trough stretching from the Midwest through the southern Mississippi Valley, and although a bit of a warmup will occur over our area, a series of cold fronts sweeping through the region mid to late week will keep the Northern plains at below average temps during this period. Near freezing temps aloft and at sfc Thu early AM could support a touch of -SW, but at this point we'll keep it out of the gridded fcst. Some lower end MVFR cigs psbl into NW MN Monday AM with next upper low dropping south.
At the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward and a cold front is moving over the Mississippi Valley. 5 inches through late Monday morning, but will further increase through the afternoon to be around 2 inches with the approach of the cold front.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 80s. No showers are showing up on radar at this time, but an upper trof continues to move through the area. Meanwhile, a cold front is plunging through Missouri at this time. Much cooler air will filter into the region behind the front. A large upper trof will set up over the Midwest behind the front.
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 (Issued 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020) This afternoon through Monday: The band of mostly high based showers via mid level frontogenesis will continue to expand and develop ewd this afternoon in response to the digging upper trough over the Great Plains. The upper trough will continue to dig through much of the MS River Valley late tnt-Mon AM. The models do have differences with the deepening and track of the low, but overall the trend is for more of a prolonged period of light to mdt rain for ern WI tnt-Mon.
Northeast Johnson County looks to see the highest winds, reaching into the 40 mph range. Ridging will then begin to take control of the weather Monday.
VFR conditions expected today into early tonight transitioning to MVFR to possibly IFR overnight as a cold front approaches the northern regions of the CWA.
There is northwest flow aloft behind an exiting system with high pressure ridging building in from the west. Dry and cold northerly flow as well as clear conditions under high pressure will help maximize radiational cooling tonight into the morning.