Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
but closed upper level low rotates slowly over the state this morning. Chances for rain decrease by this afternoon and especially this evening as the closed upper low moves east of the state. Dry conditions will then be seen for the rest of this Sat night and for much of Sun as a fairly amplified upper ridge moves east over the state. A larger scale upper trough will approach the state from the west late in the short term period.
920 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track north of the area tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region later Sunday.
The upper low that brought strong winds and precipitation to central California is now located off the coast of Baja California this morning. The high res ARW and NMM as well as the HRRR indicate a few heavy showers will be present across the valley and Sierra Nevada this afternoon into the early afternoon hours. The upper low is forecast to shift east Saturday night into Sunday, with mostly dry weather forecast for Sunday.
However, we are still looking at a high pressure ridge moving over this area today and through this weekend. That will bring increasing inversions, cold morning low temperatures, and some freezing fog issues in the lower valleys.
947 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain over Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
Many areas will see temperatures at or below freezing by daybreak, and even those locations that remain above freezing may still see patchy frost. The ridge axis will actually retrograde later today, causing an increase in north to northwest winds this afternoon, which will reinforce the cool, dry airmass already in place. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will drop south across West Texas over the next 24 hours. The weekend weather pattern will be defined by an upper trough across the eastern half of the nation with an upper ridge across the west, leaving dry northwest flow over North and Central Texas.
A cold front will move through after the end of this period shifting winds from northeast to north. Aloft, have elongated trough from northeast US to the southwest US. This trough will shift southward over the next couple of days with strong upper level jet also helping to provide upper level divergence.
910 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A series of troughs will move across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Winds are quickly turning north behind the front, which will hold high temps in the low-mid 70s around the lake where cool air advection is already commencing. Periods of MVFR possible today under mainly stratocumulus/stratus clouds as a cold front moves across South Florida. The front will shift winds to the west northwest and usher in cooler and much drier air across the region. High temperatures will be closer to average after today's near record warmth, ranging from the lower 70s to around 80. The short term period will feature dry weather on Saturday as high pressure briefly ridges into the region from the north.
Northwest upper level flow will gradually become more northerly over the next couple days, as an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes region, and a massive upper level ridge develops in the west. The result will be cooler, yet still above normal temperatures through Saturday. Precipitation should be minimal, with some flurries or perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle. Will continue to mention areas of flurries or patchy freezing drizzle, especially north.
11 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 The cold front has pushed into south FL this morning with noticeably cooler and drier air overspreading the forecast area. expect additional clearing with cooler temps falling into the 40s across the whole area. Cold front has pushed just south of the waters this morning.
520 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 A long wave trough is setting itself up over the Eastern portions of the US which will provide a persistent Northwest flow over the region for the short term.
Aloft, have elongated trough from northeast US to the southwest US. This trough will shift southward over the next couple of days with strong upper level jet also helping to provide upper level divergence.
Periods of MVFR possible today under mainly stratocumulus/stratus clouds as a cold front moves across South Florida. The front will shift winds to the west northwest and usher in cooler and much drier air across the region. High temperatures will be closer to average after today's near record warmth, ranging from the lower 70s to around 80. The short term period will feature dry weather on Saturday as high pressure briefly ridges into the region from the north.
826 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada through the weekend with high pressure extending from the plains to the southeastern part of the country.
529 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Mid level trough axis is rotating through from the central plains northeast into the Great Lakes area. Mean flow within this layer should carry the cloud cover southeast by mid morning, bringing a warmer and sunny afternoon over northeast Kansas. Could see a few flurries in mainly northeast areas as at least one wave rotates south-southeast around the upper low in eastern Canada.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today than they were yesterday with highs in the mid 30s to the mid 40s from north to south. The current forecast for Sat/Sat night is dry, but confidence isn't the highest with that, mainly for eastern portions of the CWA. Northwest winds are in place as the CWA sits in between high pressure over the intermountain west and low pressure affecting the northeastern CONUS, and models showing a corridor of stronger winds (30-ish kts) just off the surface, bringing the potential for stronger gusts.
515 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 An elongated trof at 500 mb stretching from eastern Canada southwest through the southwest U. Weak low amplitude waves rotating southeast from the longwave trof will push across our area over the next 24 hours bringing cloud cover and scattered flurries.
716 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest today and will cross the region tonight.
A large mid and upper level trough hangs over most of the CONUS with a jet streak stretching across the south and off the mid-Atlantic coastline. At the surface, yesterdy's cold front lies well off to our southeast in the Florida Peninsula and will push off the coast of South Florida later today. Locally, we will see cooler conditions in the wake of this front with morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Weak short wave rotating through the upper trough will keep a chance of snow showers on Saturday night.
A longwave upper level trough over the region will bring several disturbances down from the northwest over the next few days. highs today will be mainly in the lower 40s.
A strong ridge of high pressure continues to fold west to east across the Pacific Northwest. The ridge of high pressure is expected to remain overhead and strengthen through Saturday. Winds will be light under the inversion, and for most mountain and ridge tops as well. With the ridge in place and very limited moisture there is little chance of precipitation across the area.
242 AM PST Fri Jan 27 2017 The forecast area lies on the east side of an upper level high pressure ridge this morning. The axis of this high pressure ridge is expected to move overhead tonight through Saturday bringing mostly clear skies, with the exception of low clouds and fog in some of the valleys.
612 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A series of troughs will move across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Little to no impact expected with surface temperatures residing at the freezing mark or a couple of degrees below. Flow backing slightly this morning ahead of the next trough could favor this area to spread back northward. The next trough passing through today may favor an uptick in shower coverage across the area as it enhances low level convergence over southern MI. Cooler air working across the lakes tonight behind the next trough may also encourage an uptick in shower coverage. With a broad upper level trough now in place over North America east of the Rockies, expect a much more winter-like pattern during the upcoming forecast period. With the area embedded within northwest flow regime within this upper trough, cold air will be free to spill into the Great Lakes from Canada during this entire 7 day forecast.
923 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain stalled over Labrador through tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday.
Tonight and tomorrow, the rainfall becomes more likely in coverage, as the available moisture continues to increase ahead of a 500 mb trough that will drop south from the Desert Southwest into central Texas and northern Mexico.
This is keeping temps a little warmer over those sections with readings in the mid 30s.
608 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada through the weekend with high pressure extending from the plains to the southeastern part of the country.
A light southwest to west breeze is in place most locations, and has become variable over the offshore Gulf waters well offshore from the Lower Keys. A cold front will push through the EYW and MTH terminals this evening.
A closed upper low continues to move to the east/northeast across southeastern Canada, with the axis of a broad upper trough extending into the desert SW. These clouds have kept temps from dropping too much overnight, with 2 am temps in the upper 30s, while areas that are clear have fallen into the lower 30s. Winds have remained in the 5 to 10 kt range, so most locations have wind chills at or below freezing. This will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours and lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s by daybreak. Meanwhile, the upper trough will begin to amplify as it moves into the MS Valley. Although forecast guidance is still differing on the overall solution of this trough, the timing and placement of its movement is very similar.
320 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 The current satellite water vapor image is showing a broad trough of low pressure stretching over the United States with high pressure building over the Eastern Pacific.
952 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 The cold front continues to linger over central and southwest Florida producing a predominant broken layer of clouds around 3-5k feet. With this cloudiness and the fact that we will be on the north side of the cold front, temperatures will not warm too much today. Areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions will continue in the vicinity of the cold front over southwest Florida early this morning, otherwise any ceilings should be above 3000 feet and therefore VFR conditions should prevail. As the cold front shifts south, a predominant northwest through northeast wind around 15 knots will prevail through the weekend.
/22/ Today and tonight: Dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures are expected. Early morning water vapor imagery/surface analysis had a negatively tilted trough axis from the Great Lakes region extending southwest back across the desert southwest. Latest surface analysis had a ridge axis from the western CONUS extending across the southern plains and our CWA that will remain in place through tonight. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50s followed by a night of at or below freezing temperatures.
633 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain stalled over Eastern Canada through this weekend.
926 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest today and will cross the region tonight.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: The long-wave pattern across CONUS and Canada consists of an amplified ridge over the west extending north to the Arctic Ocean, and a trough centered around Hudson Bay.
511 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Widespread VFR conditions are expected today as high pressure dominates. The upper pattern remains highly amplified this morning with strong ridging along the west coast and a broad, negatively tilted trough that extends from the Canadian Maritimes all the way to the Baja Peninsula. West coast ridge will amplify significantly as the period progresses keeping the area in a pronounced northwest flow aloft.
553 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 A positively tilted and elongated upper level trough will move southward through our area today. Highs today will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous day, and slightly below normal for late January.
The region is in the base of middle to upper level trough though which will continue to bring higher clouds to the area.
The elongated upper level trough over the western Great Basin will shift east across the region through Thursday. Unsettled conditions associated with this trough will persist through the balance of the week.
649 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 An area of low pressure was located in southeast North Dakota this afternoon with a frontal boundary extending east southeast through Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. The Northland was in a cooler easterly flow north of the boundary with stronger winds occurring around Lake Superior. On Thursday, the warm front will move east and north and extend from northeast North Dakota southeast into northwest Wisconsin Thursday afternoon then it will continue to push northeast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower seventies to lower eighties, but be cooler around Lake Superior as we expect the easterly flow to continue.
Strong ridging looks to remain across the east coast. Possible scattered thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon given the amount of instability but this will be fighting a cap and a bit of upper ridging so will also leave out any mention at this point.
Upper level low remains over eastern portions of Montana with an unstable north-northwest flow aloft over central and southwest Montana. with only a few isolated showers across the higher elevations of south western Montana.
An upper level low centered over the border of Saskatchewan and northern Montana is keeping the region in southwest cyclonic flow. Strong low level CAPE/steep lapse rates, elevated surface vorticity associated with the low/trough, and very little shear could contribute to one or two brief/weak tornadoes given the stronger cores. Overnight, expect continued showers and thunderstorms to wrap around the low, mainly in the north and west.
1256 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures expected. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little air mass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most spots. Some model differences on how robust this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.
856 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Ridge of high pressure will hold through the end of the week.
Southwesterly flow over the past 12 to 24 hours has brought an increase in Gulf moisture to central Kentucky and southern Indiana characterized by dewpoints now in the low to mid 60s. The highest precipitation chances through midnight were confined to along and west of I-65.
Synoptic low and warm front stretches from eastern South Dakota to near Rochester MN with south southwest flow over much of the forecast area now. in the lower to mid 60s. Upper level trough over the four corners region Thursday will slowly meander eastward into the weekend. A series of impulses will eject out of the southwest trough and push through the region.
With continued southerly surface winds and relatively high surface dew points, lows tonight will be at least 10 degrees above normal for late May and a little warmer than the previous night. May be mainly scattered diurnal convection during the afternoon and early evening on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures.
Strengthening high pressure over the eastern Pacific and low pressure inland will continue to cause north winds and seas to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels today.
755 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the wrn U. trough. 75 inch of rain with the highest amounts in the western cwa through Thu afternoon. Broad troughing across the western U. will send several waves of energy NE across the Plains around broad ridging across the eastern U.
(Issued 243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016) The forecast area was continuing to be on the western fringe of the upper ridge axis, which was across much of the Southeast U. A weakening area of low pressure across northeast Texas on Thursday will shift northeast into Arkansas as a short wave at 500 millibars follows a similar northeast movement through Thursday night.
730 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 An upper level ridge of warm air will remain in place as weaker low level systems pass by the area.
This disturbance will send a weak cold front through the fcst area into Nrn KS which will be the focus for severe weather late Thursday aftn. SPC has outlooked Swrn Neb for severe weather and if the moisture shows up and storms are able become rooted in the lower levels vs remain elevated. A warm front will beceom positioned near the Nebraska/Kansa border early Thursday evening.
Dewpoints will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile.
It does appear one of these disturbances is located over northwestern Mexico late this evening, as evidenced by enhanced thunderstorm development over the higher terrain.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over northeast South Dakota early this afternoon. The stationary front will return northward tonight as a warm front. then a low overcast will settle in as a warmer airmass arrives. This will promote temps warming into the low to mid 80s at most locations in the afternoon. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Thursday Night Through Wednesday An upper-level low pressure trough over the western U.
A building ridge of high pressure along the coast will result in a gradual warming trend through the upcoming weekend along with dry weather conditions. Meanwhile, do see some cumulus developing over the higher terrain as expected with lingering moisture aloft. A building ridge of high pressure will become the dominate weather feature across the region for the remainder of the week and result in a gradual warming trend. By tomorrow afternoon, most inland locations will be around 5 degrees warmer compared to this afternoon.
Further development will be possible across the higher terrain as additional low level forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Following any lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in a moist environment. This is brought to us by a upper level ridge that will reside along the east coast, meanwhile a upper level closed low will be in place near the front range. This upper level ridge will keep the trough well west of the region. The issue here is we will reside on the periphery of this upper level ridge. Overall temps through the period will remain above normal, with highs topping out in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
907 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the area from the east into the weekend. Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints continue to rise.
An upper level ridge will remain in place through Thursday.
Current satellite imagery is showing our area still in between two upper lows located over Southern California and Central Montana. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the Idaho/Nevada border and over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho, until sunset.
Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over the Carolinas and poorly organized low pressure over Kansas. Strong ridging looks to remain across the east coast.
High pressure at the surface remains stretched from the Atlantic across the northern gulf coast this afternoon while a ridge aloft remains over the lower Mississippi Valley. Through tonight and into Thursday the upper level ridge will gradually shift east as an upper low moves across the southwest states. With the upper ridge weakened and daytime heating in full swing scattered storms can be expected by afternoon. Tomorrow pops will be lowest across acadiana and higher in the East Texas Lakes as the edge of the ridge straddles the area.
Some high-terrain breezes may continue overnight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Moisture will continue to gradually increase and allow for the possibility of a few afternoon thunderstorms as dewpoints rise into the low 60s. subsidence associated with ridging both at sfc and aloft should be more dominant and keep convection suppressed for the most part.
747 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Aviation Weak low pressure moving across Lower Michigan this evening will cause scattered storms to develop, some of which may contain gusty winds.
1022 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day.
746 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build back into the area from the east into the weekend. Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints continue to rise.
1140 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Sunshine and warmer weather will continue this evening ahead of a cold front. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight. then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains oriented from western portions of the Gulf of Mexico to the Central Gulf Coast Region this evening, with dry weather continuing across our area underneath this feature. We increased gridded sky coverage a bit overnight to account for the high cloudiness. The low temperature forecast generally remains on track, though did make some slight adjustments to hourly temp/dewpoint grids to account for the latest trends. An upper level ridge will remain in place through Thursday.
None of these areas have been well-predicted by any of the models, including the high resolution convection-allowing (CAM) models.
The low level jet will be veered to the southwest and best lift associated with it looks to focus across far northeast Kansas into southern Iowa and western Missouri. Thursday, The upper trough will move east across the Rockies while ejecting out waves through the morning into the afternoon hours.
At the same time an upper level trough will maintain a chance of showers over the area.
The Mid South remains positioned along the northern periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered along the Gulf Coast.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 70s, and highs tomorrow will be similar today in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving a medium chance (60 percent or 6 in 10 chance) of development over the next 5 days for the area of low pressure north of the Bahamas. The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and approach the southeast US over the weekend where it may stall or move slowly near the southeast coast.
Water vapor imagery showing longwave trough across the northern Rockies to a closed off low in southern California.
849 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Overnight, dry conditions will persist due to the ridging pattern in place. Light to calm winds will allow for temperatures to cool into the low to mid 60s.