Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 256 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/ Our cold front that moved through yesterday morning has stalled just south of Hwy 90, allowing temperatures along the Rio Grande to reach the 80s today. Much cooler temperatures will be seen everywhere else this afternoon, with low 40s mostly in the Permian Basin and 50s along the Trans Pecos. Any precipitation will be very light and will move off to the east by early Friday morning before temperatures drop below freezing. As the trough moves off to the E, SW flow aloft will return and quickly warm us back up to the 60s and 70s on Friday.
The combination of weak isentropic lift and an approaching cold front will lead to isolated to scattered showers today, mainly across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. With the expected cloud coverage and approaching boundary, temperatures to the north should be slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the mid 70s across the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, while over the southern Brush Country, highs are expected to warm into the 80s. For Friday, temperatures should be cooler in the 70s with rain chances to diminish throughout the day.
Lower level cloud cover may help keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but temperatures will still remain several degrees above seasonal normals. Highs today will reach the lower to middle 80s across much of the inland Rio Grande Valley with upper 80s out west. A weak cold front will approach the CWA from the north later this evening and into Friday morning. Some uncertainty then exists as to how far south and east the front will track before lifting north and acting as a warm front.
To the west, we also were watching an approaching upper level low pressure trough passing the Four Corners this morning that will cross our region this evening as a weaker open wave. Even so, this wave should be sufficient to thicken the low cloud layer and lead to a chance of light rain later today favoring the southern Rolling Plains.
532 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Main 500 mb trough/vorticity axis is located in western Manitoba and is moving southeast. Clouds in southern Manitoba closer to main 500 mb trough/vort axis and this will move east today keeping some risk for clouds thru the far northern fcst area. Did side a tad on the warmer side of guidance for most areas, but the spread in possible temps today was pretty small. Southwest winds remain up tonight as 850 mb thermal ridge moves in.
A western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Southeast United States and the Florida Peninsula will govern our sensible weather elements over the next several days. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees above normal with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.
Coolest temperatures are actually in the areas with fog, due to the cooler waters (water temps in the 40s and 50s) that are triggering the fog. Will go with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, but if we get significant breaks in the cloud cover at any point, temperatures certainly have the potential to get into the lower 80s. Areas along the immediate coastline (especially the Mississippi coast) are likely to see their high temperatures occur by midday each day with the cooler Gulf waters moderating any warming.
As of 3 AM the highest peaks over the North and East Bay are still showing gusts 65-80 mph 3500' and above. Latest 24 hour trends show temperatures 3-10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning.
240 AM PST Thu Feb 25 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer today and Friday before another cold front pushes through from the north Friday night.
Another wave drops in tonight and will bring numerous snow showers to SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle. We are also looking at another wave bringing scattered snow showers to SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle overnight into Friday morning.
955 AM MST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure gains control of the forecast area today before an approaching trough brings multiple periods of snowfall Utah and southwest Wyoming.
Temperatures were generally in the low to mid 30s across the area with a light northeast wind. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with highs from the mid 40s up in central MO to the low 50s in the south.
355 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure will track overhead tonight into Friday morning.
Temperatures are slightly cooler however, but still reaching into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
MVFR cigs prevail at all but CNM/PEQ at issuance, with these terminals expected to remain just beyond the reach of the low clouds for the duration of the forecast. /issued 256 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/ Our cold front that moved through yesterday morning has stalled just south of Hwy 90, allowing temperatures along the Rio Grande to reach the 80s today. Much cooler temperatures will be seen everywhere else this afternoon, with low 40s mostly in the Permian Basin and 50s along the Trans Pecos. Any precipitation will be very light and will move off to the east by early Friday morning before temperatures drop below freezing. As the trough moves off to the E, SW flow aloft will return and quickly warm us back up to the 60s and 70s on Friday.
For tomorrow, cloud cover should keep temperatures mild across the area, with highs in the mid-upper 50s across most of the area, and into the low 60s across portions of western-north Texas.
(This evening through Friday) There is a chance of showers with an isolated thunderstorms tonight, as an upper trough moves across the West central Texas, lifting warm air over the cold air at the surface.
Dry weather associated with high pressure ridging will continue through tonight, with a minimal chance for light showers occurring later tonight for counties along the Altamaha river as a very weak cold front from out of the west moves through just north of the forecast area and touch upon southeastern Georgia with rain chances remaining low due to the overall dryness of the already existing air.
TFJ Ridge building into the Pacific Northwest will flatten out to produce a chinook across the northern Rockies on today. Cold front dips south on Friday pulling a Canadian high into the northern plains. Some upslope snow showers are possible across the southwest zones as the high pushes south Friday night.
Will need to keep an eye on this overnight and see if lows will be slightly warmer than what is in the forecast at this time.
RAH (Issued 343 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021) Today and Tonight: Today is looking quiet and cooler as some scattered clouds work their way into the area and as high pressure currently located over the Central Plains pushes east through the day. Daytime temps are expected to top off in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with overnight temps falling into the low 20s to upper teens. Quiet conditions will continue overnight as mid-level ridging progresses through the region.
Some elevated instability is present however the highest values remain to the east of the forecast area therefore left any mention of thunder out of the forecast at this time. A weak dryline will try to bisect the forecast area tomorrow which may lead to slightly warmer temperatures to the west and cooler to the east but all locations will climb into the 60's.
1150 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Much cooler temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas today. Expect highs in the 40s for most locations, except across the Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will be in the low to mid 50s. Overnight, a weak upper level trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Additional rainfall amounts of one tenth to one quarter inch are possible, although some higher amounts are possible within any thunderstorms, with our eastern counties once again favored for the higher amounts.
311 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure will track overhead tonight into Friday morning.
1056 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 A weak cold front to the north will push south through the area today. Friday will be a cool day but warmer temperatures should return for the weekend.
Slightly warmer conditions are expected for Friday as clouds increase in advance of a system that will bring a brief period of rain late Friday night. The weekend will feature much warmer conditions and high temperatures well into the 50s. Currently not expecting clouds to be much impediment to radiational cooling tonight as winds slacken off with approach of low level anticyclone. Departure of low level anticyclone on Friday will allow for return warm advection Friday afternoon. Warmer conditions for Friday will allow for continued melting of snowpack and continued rises on some area rivers. No significant changes to the forecast post-Friday as a broader western CONUS Pacific wave allows for quick resurgence of low level thermal ridging back into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
154 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Upper level open short wave trough just passing by the 4-corners region is expected to move across the Panhandles tonight with little fan fair.
Snow moving into the northern tiers impacting KBKE and KMYL this morning becoming more widespread over the higher terrain of SW Idaho this evening.
342 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 A fractured ridge axis stretches west across Florida, with the dominant node persisting over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor imagery highlights a broad expanse of subsidence over the Caribbean and Sargasso Seas, collocated with deep, mean-layer ridging. Northeast winds average 7 to 12 knots across the Florida Keys, tending higher to the west of the Lower Keys. A continental dome of high pressure will have subtropical aspirations tonight and Friday as it slides east into the western North Atlantic. As the anticyclone broadens over the Atlantic, the kinematic fields will respond across the Florida Keys.
Expect temperatures will be a little warmer in this area and bumped up highs slightly. An upper level short wave trough will move into north Texas tonight.
The one factor to watch, however, will be the high clouds streaming in ahead of a surface pressure trough currently draped over eastern Montana. Winds will become breezy again Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The aforementioned cold front approaches Friday night, bringing with it slight chances of rain or snow to the west with a better chance of snow (but still light and brief) across the north central.
A strong cold front is making its way across the region this afternoon. Western Montana will generally see light snows Friday and temperatures near freezing during the day.
Lows Friday night will be warmer, in the middle 30s west to the lower to middle 40s east, so snow mixing in is not expected. For Friday, the highest chances of rain are across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. By Friday night, the highest chances will be focused across west Kentucky.
353 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions tonight and Friday before a series of low pressure systems bring periods of rain through the weekend. Dry conditions and light winds will prevail under the high with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. A mid-level trough over the four corners region will begin to head east on Friday. Meanwhile, surface winds shift to the northeast and east with the departing high pressure.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): A weak cold front is perched just north of the CWA this afternoon as moderate southeast to south return flow continues locally.
Surface and upper-level ridging will be in place across the area tonight before slowly shifting eastward through Friday.
157 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 A little cooler today, but all-in-all, not a half bad day. This is an expected development as models tend to shift northward or southward with time, but what it means is the exact locations that will get the highest amounts is still yet to be determined.
Overnight, winds will gradually veer around to south/southwesterly as a weak lee cyclone develops in eastern Colorado ahead of the next upper level impulse. NBM appears not to be catching on to this dry air returning behind this surface boundary so will begin to trend towards the lower dewpoint forecast which was from the NAM,MET, MAV. This also favors warmer temperatures on Friday, especially west of the surface boundary.
Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s in many locations. Friday: Any fog should dissipate by mid morning then partly cloudy and warmer, with highs pushing into the 40s to lower 50s. Friday night: Models have weakened the upper level trough/forcing arriving during the evening. Temperatures near or above normal are expected through the period, with highs above freezing and most areas with snowpack seeing sub-freezing lows.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northern plains 12z Sun that moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sun and into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging moves into the Rockies 12z Mon that moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Weak upper troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed with the pattern becoming more amplified by 12z Thu with a ridge in the western U. West-northwest winds behind this mornings trough are producing a marginal MVFR/VFR lake effect cloud deck at CMX and SAW.
Dry weather will continue through much of tomorrow as high pressure tracks across the region. Winds will be light and variable as the high progresses eastward. As the influence of subsidence weakens over the area and an upper trough approaches, models show a plume of moisture advancing northward into the southern stretches of the CWA. A low pressure system will lift northeast across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and into Quebec this weekend.
1035 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 A fractured high pressure system stretches west across Florida, with the dominant node lingering over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Northeast winds average 7 to 13 knots at the marine observation platforms, tending higher to the west of the Seven Mile Bridge. A weak area of high pressure will move into the western North Atlantic this afternoon. A dominant dome of high pressure will push off the Mid- Atlantic and New England Coasts Friday and Friday night.
Dry weather is expected today with temperatures back to near normal as high pressure builds toward the area from the west. Due to the cold frontal passage yesterday, cold advection will be in place throughout the day over the area, bringing high temperatures back to near normal after the last couple of warm days. A weak upper ridge axis will move into place Friday morning, and this should allow for some cirrus to move in tonight ahead of it. A low pressure system will lift northeast across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and into Quebec this weekend.
Nevertheless, it appears we'll see at least 40 mph gusts from late morning through mid afternoon until the winds aloft weaken with an approaching low pressure area from the Dakotas.
Meanwhile a mid-level shrtwv trof will move across the area overnight, but according to NAMBUFR soundings mstr will not deepen.
227 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 If you are sick of the cooler weather and looking forward to some heat these next few days are for you. High pressure will remain parked over the area through the weekend bringing sunny skies and near record warmth.
Combined with clear skies and a dry airmass, another cool night is ahead with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s, except closer to 60 degrees toward eastern Martin county. High pressure starts to rebuild toward FL with low-level winds returning to a light south to southeast flow. High temperatures expected to reach the 82-84 range across the interior, but a diffuse seabreeze developing early in the afternoon should hold locations along the coast in the upper 70s due to the cooler ocean temperatures.
The cold front this afternoon is located south of a La Grange to Gonzales to Cotulla line.
1035 AM MST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure continues to push to the east, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest, as a deep low pressure cell and its associated cold front moves northward towards New England. Good upslope precipitation brought from the flow around the high pressure cell, located just off to the east, resulted in around an inch of snowfall across CYS, with the bulk of the moisture remaining to the south over Colorado. Still expect precipitation to end once the high pressure cell dives far enough to the south/southeast to effectively end upslope flow across southeastern Wyoming. Due to the consistencies within the models and the strong subsidence, we went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings for wind prone areas along the I-80 and I-25 corridors.
On Friday, clouds will begin to gradually increase by afternoon with the approach of an upper-level trough and increasing mid-level moisture. As the aforementioned trough continues eastward across the Midwest Friday evening into the first half of the night, light rain will be possible for portions of the area.
There is the potential for some aircraft icing as the tops of these clouds remain above freezing while the remainder of the cloud layer is at or below freezing. To the west, we also were watching an approaching upper level low pressure trough passing the Four Corners this morning that will cross our region this evening as a weaker open wave. Even so, this wave should be sufficient to thicken the low cloud layer and lead to a chance of light rain later today favoring the southern Rolling Plains.
225 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Clouds increasing this afternoon ahead of short wave trough currently located across CO/NM this afternoon.
There will be a concern for fog/freezing fog overnight along the WI/IL border as the inversion builds overhead. With the sun and southerly winds Friday expect highs to get into the low 40s again resulting in a pleasant end to the work week. RAH (Issued 317 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021) Friday night through Thursday: As an upper level trough approaches the region Friday we'll move into an area of warm air advection and positive vorticiy advection Friday night.
251 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021 The 12Z H500 hand analysis map is showing a fairly waving pattern from the deep trough over the 4 Corners upstream to the highly amplified ridge over the E. The sounding this morning at GJT had us in the lower realm of normal but subsidence and drying behind the trough should put us deeper in deficit by the next balloon launch. There will be a thin line of moisture aloft moving through at the interface of the retreating ridge arriving trough by morning.
With the passage of yesterday's cold front, current temperatures in the valley are up to 5 degrees cooler compared to this same time yesterday. The big temperature drop occurred in the Kern County desert, where current temperatures are up to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, and up to 10 degrees below average.
The only real concern overnight will be patchy fog/freezing fog, though the southwest breeze may keep some of that at bay. Best chances look to be across the far south near the Illinois state line, as well as across some of the lower areas of the Rock River Valley from Janesville north to Juneau. There will be a concern for fog/freezing fog overnight along the WI/IL border as the inversion builds overhead. With the sun and southerly winds Friday expect highs to get into the low 40s again resulting in a pleasant end to the work week. RAH (Issued 317 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021) Friday night through Thursday: As an upper level trough approaches the region Friday we'll move into an area of warm air advection and positive vorticiy advection Friday night.
On Friday, brisk wly flow at aloft across the area, while surface lee trough develops along I-25. Much of the area will become breezy and warmer by afternoon, though fairly deep snow cover over El Paso county will hold back temps somewhat.
Increased clouds have kept temperatures cooler than yesterday with highs topping out in the mid 40s. The plume of moisture is quickly swept east by the mid level trough, although there could be a brief window where light rain/sprinkles is supported in the eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures in north-central Kansas will warm into the low to mid 50s while cloud cover over east-central Kansas will keep temps near the 50 degree mark.
The cold front that pushed through the area and stalled along the Gulf Coast will push back into the area as a warm front and stall.
305 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer today and Friday before another cold front pushes through from the north late Friday.
For this reason, the High Wind Warnings have been expanded to include the Laramie Valley, central Laramie County, and east Platte County. A big concern in addition to the high winds is going to be blowing snow in the area along I-80 between Laramie and Cheyenne that received 4 to 5 inches last night.
Lower dewpoints, unfavorable wind direction, and SST in the low/mid 60s precludes the traditional advective sea fog event. High pressure over the area will keep warm, dry, and otherwise very pleasant boating conditions for the next several days.
An upper trough was moving into the NW quadrant of the US today. This cold front drops south through the CWA late Friday with some isolated disturbances moving through in the NW upper flow late in the day. The lower levels look too dry to allow for much precip to reach the ground but felt it was enough to broadbrush low chance pops with little/no qpf Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
mainly west of the Highway 301 corridor affecting the Ocala. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s. A front across central Ga will remain north of the area on Friday resulting in another mostly sunny and warm day with temperatures reaching the lower 80s inland. Dry weather associated with high pressure ridging will continue through tonight, with a minimal chance for light showers occurring later tonight for counties along the Altamaha river as a very weak cold front from out of the west moves through just north of the forecast area and touch upon southeastern Georgia with rain chances remaining low due to the overall dryness of the already existing air.
/Issued 225 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/ Clouds increasing this afternoon ahead of short wave trough currently located across CO/NM this afternoon.
Another dry day today, a little cooler than the last couple of days but still seasonable.
538 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 (This evening through Friday) There is a chance of showers with an isolated thunderstorms tonight, as an upper trough moves across the West central Texas, lifting warm air over the cold air at the surface.
It will take some time for the low levels to moisten so do not see any precipitation making it to the surface until early morning Friday. While most of this precipitation will be rain, we could see a brief wintry mix across the highest terrain of southwest Virginia and extreme northeast Tennessee as wetbulb processes bring temperatures to near freezing across these locations. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 53 50 69 58 / 80 90 80 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 52 47 64 55 / 40 80 80 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 39 51 47 63 55 / 40 80 80 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 48 43 60 51 / 20 70 80 70 60.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): A weak cold front is perched just north of the CWA this afternoon as moderate southeast to south return flow continues locally.
Slightly warmer conditions are expected for Friday as clouds increase in advance of a system that will bring a brief period of rain late Friday night. The weekend will feature much warmer conditions. Currently not expecting clouds to be much impediment to radiational cooling tonight as winds slacken off with approach of low level anticyclone. Departure of low level anticyclone on Friday will allow for return warm advection Friday afternoon. Warmer conditions for Friday will allow for continued melting of snowpack and continued rises on some area rivers. No significant changes to the forecast post-Friday as a broader western CONUS Pacific wave allows for quick resurgence of low level thermal ridging back into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
At the surface, high pressure resides across the Rockies, with a broad lee trof across the northern Plains.