Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.
MEANWHILE WE WILL HAVE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS. WENT WITH WARMER BIAS CORRECTED HI-RES ARW WEST FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS COMES AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST.
-KT AN UPR RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WL HAVE A LOW CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO AZ ON TUESDAY. THE NAM IS DEEPEST AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. AND ALSO MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT THRU WED. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP. AND THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. BUT MAINLY ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
634 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
AND TUESDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 09Z TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 75 IN THE AFTERNOON.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDDAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
645 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
/06Z TAFS/ A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY SCATTERS OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL CREATE AN AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE TO PROMOTE DRY AND COOL NE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE WSWRLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. ALSO PULLING IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH TROUGHING HAVING SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
141 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER DURING THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. BUT WITH LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S HAVE HELD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. HOWEVER DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY.
CLOSER TO A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TEXAS.
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
Upper trough just west of the forecast area will amplify on Monday, which will help to increase deep layer moisture west of Tallahassee.
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH FOG POTENTIAL ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THERE SHOULD BE A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOWING THE LOW/TROUGH HEADING OUR WAY ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLIFYING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE 925-850MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THE LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER EAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
248 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
1041 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A fast moving, dry cold front will produce windy conditions late this afternoon into this evening.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S INLAND. AN EARLY AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE LAKE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE AGAIN KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEUBELBEISS 303 AM CDT BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH MIDWEEK AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY.
1114 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AN UPR RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WL HAVE A LOW CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO AZ ON TUESDAY. THE NAM IS DEEPEST AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. AND ALSO MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT THRU WED. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP. AND THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.
Dew points will remain in the lower to mid 50s, which is around the 10th percentile for September (according to a local dewpoint climatology study). The back edge of the high clouds will exit western KY by midday.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY.
401 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW. NAM IS OUTLIER DEEPENING LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF/GFS/SREF SHOW TROUGH/LOW FURTHER NORTH TODAY AND LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A WASHINGTON TO THOMASTON TO COLUMBUS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AND MODELS SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH. GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING TO WEST AND VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS.
427 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 (Today and Tonight) As upper high pressure builds back over West Central Texas, dry weather returns with warm afternoon highs and morning lows. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s and lows tomorrow morning will be in the upper 60s. Normal highs for this date are in the mid 80s and normal lows are in the lower 60s. High pressure will continue to dominate the region for the next 7 days. Temperatures will remain warmer than seasonal normals, especially through late this week. Then, as the high weakens and the flow aloft becomes more northerly over Texas, cooler afternoon highs look likely for this weekend and into Monday.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO 10-12C IN WAA. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY IN THE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND. EVEN WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY. THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.
142 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN.
2 INCHES ARE TRANSPORTED IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE U. RIDGES DOWN OVER FLORIDA. BUT THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE BREEZY NE WIND FLOW AT THE SFC ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD DECREASE BUT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW NEARBY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL KEEP A N/NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY. A SWELL COMPONENT WILL PROPAGATE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PRES GRAD AND WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THOUGH WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL NUDGE THE HIGH WESTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
350 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2015 Dry weather continues with daytime high temperatures trending cooler going into early part of the week. Clear skies across NorCal early this morning as high pressure remains in control. It will remain rather hot across the interior of NorCal today with strong high pressure remaining overhead and light northerly/ northeasterly flow at the surface.
141 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD, MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, EXPECT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH TO BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BEING A LITTLE WARMER FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
The 500-mb associated trof axis was currently located over Northeast Oklahoma. while the associated 700-mb trof axis was just to the northwest of Eastern Oklahoma. Behind the 500-mb trof axis. An area of warm air advection interacting with the wave will aid in the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the morning hours before the trof axies shift east of the CWA this afternoon. Current thinking is that precip should be tapering off once behind the trof axies. Highs today look to be several degrees warmer compared to yesterday. a ridge of high pressure building out over the Southwest U. Will continue to carry a dry forecast for the week as latest model solutions have backed off some on a wave lifting northeast over the top of the ridge late in the week.
327 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
612 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT'LL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY FROM THE MID-40S IN COOLEST AREAS TO THE LOW-MID 50S IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS MONDAY EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LEE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL TRACK EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED MORNING. MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THIS FEATURE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KS FOR WED WITH BETTER CHANCES SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WED NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TODAY AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
207 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DRY FROPA PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SET FOR TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID- LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SLIDING EASTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT STILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
COOLER WEATHER COMMENCING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
High pressure will continue to build into the region on Monday. However, a bit of an upper level trough will linger over the region. Highs will likely range from the lower 70s in the north the mid-upper 70s across the south.
236 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
UNFORTUNATELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE AWAY THE MAJORITY OF WHAT HAS TRIED TO REACH THE GROUND. WHILE THIS PROCESS WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS EVENTUALLY TO THE POINT WHERE MORE PRECIP CAN REACH THE GROUND. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY AIR FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPS THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF.
603 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOSER TO THE INVERTED TROUGH.
207 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH A BIT OF ELEVATED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE FORECAST IS RATHER DRY AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
239 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND REMNANT BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TENNESSEE/GEORGIA. H5 TROUGH WILL BE STALLED OVER AREA TUESDAY.
103 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
However the ridge looks as though it will keep any precipitation north and west of the area. An upper level low looks as though is may become trapped under the ridge over the southeastern portions of the country and begin to retrograde west towards the end of the week.
240 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT'LL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.
510 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL HELP PULL DOWN A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE KINL AREA/NW CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
339 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW LEVELS VERY DRY AND ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUED CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WEAK 500MB TROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C, GOOD TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
/issued 245 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough entering the MS Valley, having pushed the ridge down into South Texas. As a result, we've taken afternoon convection chances to a bare minimum, w/no convection expected 1st period as subsidence behind the trough begins to take hold. Monday, the upper ridge begins building north and reasserting itself further into Texas.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOW ZONAL AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE AREA. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY.
Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge City to Coldwater line. Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
317 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Ridging is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the ridge flattening.
Activity on the periphery of the ridge will stay out of forecast area, including low stratus over Kansas.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVG TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW/W THROUGH WED AS THE REMNANTS OF TD 16E LIFT OVER THE RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF US AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE MID TO UPPER LOW BY THIS TIME. AND PERHAPS WEAK 'BACKDOOR' COLD FRONT.
308 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID LEVEL DECK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK. AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS. BY WHICH TIME THE ARRIVAL THE UPPER TROUGH/JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST. ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DAYTIME HEATING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GRADUALLY REPLACE WEAK UPPER RIDGING.
MUCH OF THE SAME AHEAD FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 80S EXPECTED MOST LOCALES. THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND A WK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER.
235 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
333 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER TX. UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO WEAKEN/SHIFT SWD AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.