Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RIDE NORTH IN THE MONSOON PLUME AND CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MUCH DRIER WITH TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
1136 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MOIST SUBTROPICAL PLUME ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM.
645 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STILL NEED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CAT POPS INTO EARLY EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST.
258 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER TROUGHS WERE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER TX/AR/LA WERE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MOIST FETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.
107 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER INTO THE WEEKEND AND SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE ON HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND /WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST/.
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT DRY WEATHER.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS INTO EARLY EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST.
310 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE FRUSTRATING IN THAT THE MODELS SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND. NOW RATHER THAN RETROGRADING THE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL TX, THE TREND IS TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
203 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHERE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES/PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED BUT THE ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ESSENTIALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS SUMMER TIME SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS.
DRY LAYER BETWEEN 5000-18000 FEET TO REMAIN IN TACK AS SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO A BIT WARMER WITH THE NICE 60S DISAPPEARING AS THE 850 FLOW RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WHICH BUMPS UP OUR DEW POINTS.
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY.
1122 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 TODAY AN UPR RIDGE IS OVR UT AND WRN CO. ON SATURDAY THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RIDGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SITS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT QUITE AS MUCH DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SIGNAL AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW. TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. SUN-MON: STILL ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST MAXES AGAIN ON SUN. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. WITH APPARENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT PATTERN VERIFICATION WOULD SUGGEST BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WOULD BE EVEN WARMER BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. -HOWERTON WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THEN AN UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST. THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD DOWNSTREAM. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST OF MS/LA. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY.
DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE VFR RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. RESULTING IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING SHARPLY COOLER. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY.
A weak upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward across the Midwest. A broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the Midwest.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.
EC/GFS 12Z RUNS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HOWEVER ALL MODELS SHOW 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST OF STATE UNTIL WEAK SHORT WAVE. DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO BASE OF TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY. SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE LINGERS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROUGH SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH 500 MB TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF AREA BY 03Z.
347 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE HOT WEATHER FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONGER ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE HOT WEATHER FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY.
304 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Early this morning an upper level trough extended from the northern Great Lakes. The surface cold front was moving southeast of the CWA. A broad upper level ridge was located across the west central US. The upper trough will shear apart with the more amplified northern branch moving east across the Great Lakes States. The southern section of the H5 trough will dig south across northeast OK through the day. The low clouds should increase towards sunrise across the eastern half of the CWA. Highs will be in the lower 80s across most of the CWA. The H5 trough digging south-southwest across east central OK will cause a sfc and 850mb low to develop across central and eastern OK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRENDING NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER AND COOLER SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STATUS AND TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. EVEN WITHOUT THE CYCLONE IN PLAY.
A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT'S ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGHING LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THE PROMISED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST, SO WITH MOISTURE STREMING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW STORMS) DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY SETTING UP IN TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEB. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15 TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO.
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.
339 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN. WHILE A BROAD CLOSED LOW WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LIED IN BETWEEN. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG A BOWLING GREEN TO FRANKFORT LINE AND WESTWARD. THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD.
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY.
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD THE DIVIDE.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
433 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING ALLOWING A WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
RIDING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPLY-STACKED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
150 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND WARM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER LOW- LYING AREAS. THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE S/E WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND GFS SHOW A TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER WESTERN US RIDGE AIRMASS.
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U. GENERAL WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AND THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVHD. COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE IS SHUFFLING A BIT WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD AND A VERY STRONG TROUGH THROUGH HIGHER LATITUDE AND MID TIER STATES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE NEAR NORTHERN SONORA TO EXTEND INTO AREAS WEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR FIRST AREA OF INTEREST OVER THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION. SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE H3 RIDGE INFLECTION WILL HELP WITH STORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST SOME AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.
156 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER HOT DAY IN MOST AREAS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER DAMPENS TODAY LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL STILL BE PRESENT. THUS THE LOWERING OF POPS. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH RIDGING/WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
1008 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and some precipitation. This will lead to cooler overnight lows. despite not currently being much cooler versus yesterday.
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 TAIL END OF H5 TROF STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO N TX WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO SE TX TODAY. UPPER LOW SEEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE SE LA COAST IS STILL FCST TO RETROGRADE WWD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LATEST DATA DEPICTS A TROF AXIS GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS TO S TX MON-WED PUTTING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA ON THE MORE FAVORABLE SIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES (HIGHER CHANCES ALONG & EAST OF THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR TUE/WED W/ MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE). TROF/LOW MIGHT SLOWLY MEANDER BACK EAST THURS-SAT WHICH WOULD REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE BUT NOT ENTIRELY ELIMINATE POPS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. 47 GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR EAST.
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE EAST.
647 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING ALLOWING A WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE N ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW ENHANCES SHWR CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NNE.