Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 A cold high pressure center will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coast tonight.
729 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will move off East Coast tonight.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail across most of the CWA tonight before ceilings/visibilities lower to IFR to near LIFR conditions late tonight into early Sun morning as a coastal trough/low across the coastal sections of the CWA lifts northward. Only 62F at MFE right now, and HBV and APY have struggled to reach the low 50's, with the much cooler air trapped in that region. Stronger SSE winds should finally push the aforementioned boundary back NW through the entire area as the day goes on, with temps recovering back into the low 70s even in the far NW areas.
1024 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will move off East Coast tonight.
Coastal trough remains quasi stationary from just east of KCRP. coastal trough was placed from just east of KCRP. All of the above fcst reasoning is based upon coastal trough slowly shifting inland thru the night. and if trough stalls/fails to push as far inland. with ENErly sfc winds to the west of coastal trough.
/00Z TAFS/ Surface analysis has warm front just south of a Galveston to Wharton at 23Z. KGLS will likely drop to IFR by 01Z and should see a slow progression of IFR ceilings northward as warm front moves north. There may be a few passing showers mainly north of Houston along where the warm front stalls by late morning.
The pattern aloft North America this evening showed an upper low over British Columbia and WA coastal waters and a broad low across Hudson Bay and Quebec with nearly zonal flow southward to Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico region. while a weak inverted trough begins to form offshore the FL-GA-SC coast. The zonal flow will provide stable and generally dry conditions while the high pressure maintains northeast and north low level flow with abundant moisture. The low clouds and fog will be lifting around mid-morning. High pressure ridging into the Gulf will keep winds northeast and north and in the 5 to 15 knot range. High pressure will extend over much of the Gulf through about mid week with a relaxed pressure gradient. This high slides east later in the week as a cold front pushes across Florida.
526 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 A dry airmass associated with high pressure moving off to the east will continue to cause dry weather across our area tonight. A weak cold front will move across the area on Sunday, resulting in an increase in cloudiness.
835 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 An area of low pressure will develop along the inverted trough east of the region overnight. Lows will be near 40 to the lower 40s across southeast Georgia, and the 40s to lower 50s across northeast Florida, warmest along the east coast. An area of low pressure will develop along the inverted trough east of the region late tonight and then move off to the northeast on Sunday, and VFR conditions are expected before noon.
Sunday will see similar temperatures but maybe a few degrees cooler as the downslope flow will be weaker and expect more cloud cover. Flow aloft will be turning southwesterly Sunday night as an upper trough moves into the Western US.
Strengthening low pressure at the surface over Eastern Washington, 2. An approaching dry, arctic cold front crossing the Continental Divide, This will all result in what could be some of the most impressive single storm snowfall amounts thus far this winter.
Warm front/coastal trough has moved little from earlier this evening. This low level moisture pooling across the region is resulting in areas of fog beginning to develop across the eastern half of the CWA.
435 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2017 Lee side troughing today has caused temps to rise this afternoon into the 60s and 70s for the Panhandles.
513 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2017 Cold front located just west of the I-29 corridor will continue to track east through southwest MN and northwest IA through the early evening hours. With subtle ridging nosing into south central SD late tonight, think there is good potential of clearing out in this area, while southwest MN and the Highway 14 corridor have the best potential for extended cloud cover. Cooler air will quickly filter across the region tonight, leading to colder low temperatures in the teens. With warming temperatures aloft and decreased snowpack in the Missouri Valley, there is good potential for this area to reach near or just above freezing on Sunday.
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The Arctic air-mass is confined within a broad upper low across most of Canada. The Pacific storm begins to be absorbed by the broad Canada low, allowing a slight upper ridge to develop over eastern Montana. this will temporarily nudge in a warm front that may produce liquid precipitation on Sunday, mainly in southern zones.
As was the case yesterday, warmer air was present over higher elevations with 35 degrees at Wicked Creek (south of Livingston) and 43 degrees at Timbercrest (south of Red Lodge). This would translate into rising temperatures tonight as the warmer air over the west moves east as west to southwest winds develop. Warmer temperatures expected Sunday as the cold air current over the area is shoved east and north. Have undercut guidance based on recent history, but Sunday does have potential to be much warmer with downslope flow. Winds will become the bigger story Sunday and Sunday night as a lee trough deepens. Have maintained the High Wind Watch for the west.
High pressure will continue across the southeast U. 90 inches with the majority of this moisture in the lower levels and very dry between 680-410mb. GOMex ridge will begin to fill in behind it, bringing partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Coastal troughing/convergence forecast to lift slowly northeast overnight with lessening shower chances.
A broad region of high pressure continues to settle over the region. There were no major short wave troughs upstream of our forecast area in the upper levels.
After midnight it is still possible that a few areas across SWNC, our eastern mountains, and foothills could see some light freezing drizzle/rain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 55 39 60 / 30 20 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 52 37 58 / 10 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 33 52 38 58 / 10 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 49 33 61 / 10 10 10 20.
636 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Canadian high pressure over the region shifts offshore tonight. an area of low pressure develops along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday. dry cold front crosses the area Sunday night.
coastal trough was placed from just east of KCRP. All of the above fcst reasoning is based upon coastal trough slowly shifting inland thru the night. and if trough stalls/fails to push as far inland. with ENErly sfc winds to the west of coastal trough.
543 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 A cold high pressure center will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coast tonight.
1030 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will shift offshore well south of New England tonight as a warm front passes by to the northwest of the region. Low pressure will move east through southern Canada Sunday and will drive a cold front through the region Sunday night as it continues east into the maritimes.
644 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure short lived as a more progressive pattern develops. Cold front mid week. High pressure to end work week. High pressure giving high cirrus with the sun poking through most of the day today. Tonight should be much warmer than last night as waa brings a warmer and moister air mass into the region. Moisture may be to limited by this time to produce anything, thus only the low POPs.
The 17Z sfc analysis depicts an inverted trough oriented SW to NE along the SE TX coast into portions of SW and Cntrl LA.
257 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 An upper level trof over the state today, will move east of the area this evening. Some low clouds have been covering the far sern plains today, but as the upper trof moves out of the area this evening, these clouds are expected to move out as well. Although some of the low clouds could continue in the San Luis Valley this evening, they are expected to dissipate by late night. The San Luis Valley is expected to to have slightly cooler than average temps, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
The bulk of the precipitation associated with the warm conveyor belt of the upper level low spinning southeastward along the west coast of Sonora has now shifted well off to the east of our area. The upper low itself is progged to eventually turn more eastward into Mexico during the day Sunday, but it will likely be too far south to influence the South Plains significantly, at least through the day. Did tend to favor the lower side of guidance given the moist grounds now in place. Aside from the northwestern zones, most of the FA will remain above freezing.
Did have to make some adjustments upward on the highs especially southeast counties as driest air highest cloud decks are there and no rain just yet and we are warming nicely considering we are overcast.
Upper ridging will be the dominant player on Sunday, again making for mild temperatures, with southwest winds at the surface. Sunday night the surface cold front will quickly push through, bringing increasing northwest winds, as well as better potential for a quick shot of snowfall.
228 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Combination of closed upper low to our southwest and trough moving through central and northern plains will continue to provide sufficient lift for widespread light rain and drizzle overnight. As upper trough moves east late tonight and Sunday most of the light precip is expected to end as lift shifts east and drier air moves into the area. Most areas should see some sun tomorrow with warmer temps and light winds.
354 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build in later today but slide quickly off to the east on Sunday. Low pressure over ME and Canadian Maritimes will move to the east and relax the NW flow - but not until late today and this evening. Still looking for an inch or less for accums on the higher ridges in the NW, and nil elsewhere. Temps will be cooler tonight without so much wind to keep us well-mixed. Just the highest hill tops of the SE may get a dusting. It is a nighttime event, and temps in the nrn tier are much more likely to be sub-freezing all night. The ridge moving to the east will be followed by a large mesocyclone emanating for a large upper level low moving into the northern Great Lakes region.
The arctic cold front will begin to impact the area Sunday spreading rain and snow showers across the region in the afternoon.
A low pressure system will bring clouds to the region after 02z and these will lower into Sunday morning when lcl mvfr conditions could be approached at all taf sites after 08z in and near showers.
1015 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 Upper level analysis has trough over the western and north central CONUS, with a closed low over the gulf of California. Upper trough will cross the region today, with increasing clouds and winds becoming more westerly. West to southwest boundary layer flow will advect in slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected.
1127 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Unsettled weather will continue to impact portions of New Mexico, primarily the southeastern portions of the state where precipitation will be most prominent from the upper level low pressure system within the SW region. Upper low pressure system will continue to sag into Old Mexico today through Sunday allowing precipitation to slowly taper off from north to south over New Mexico.
1146 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 The warm front is expected to waffle near the coast. Otherwise, given the location of the warm front and the approaching upper low, periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms can be expected. The location of the warm front will likely lead to IFR for most sites through the period. Warm front is situated from roughly Smith Point to Texas City to San Luis Pass to 15NM south of Matagorda Bay.
The next cold upper trough will cross the area during the first half of the upcoming week, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far.
The trough moves to the east this evening. Sunday will be a warm day ahead of the cold front that moves through the area in the late afternoon and evening.
302 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 At 2 PM, water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short wave trough over eastern South Dakota and another short wave trough moving into the Nebraska pan handle. The first short wave trough will move northeast through Minnesota tonight.
256 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Expect most locations, except perhaps the MO bootheel, to stay dry and mostly cloudy through the afternoon while high pressure meanders out of the area and weaker low level moisture supply remains.
Water vapor imagery showing upper level trof moving across central Colorado at the present time with some drying noted over the Front Range. As the trof sweeps through by daybreak, these lower clouds will also move out of the area. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer today with readings back into the lower 40s with much more sunshine expected. a dry but increase west/northwesterly flow aloft will develop over CO during the day, with the surface lee trough along near the foothills.
A trough of low pressure will slide through the Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday evening, bringing a period of light to moderate snow.
347 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over South Dakota with a WAA band of pcpn crossing the eastern CWA. With temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain, with pockets of snow.
Warm front is situated from roughly Smith Point to Texas City to San Luis Pass to 15NM south of Matagorda Bay.
201 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies prevail across the region due to upper level high clouds streaming in from the west. An upper level low will continue to dig southeast across Baja California and northern Mexico tonight and then begin to lift to the east and northeast Sunday and Sunday night. The warm front is then forecast to move across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Georgia Sunday night, with an area of low pressure developing in the Gulf off the coast of south Texas.
As expected, a cut-off low has evolved over northern Mexico, with an expansive area of warm air advection and ascent spreading through the southern and central Plains. Surface temperatures have warmed into the middle 40s to lower 50s across much of the CWA, with the exception of far NW Missouri where northeasterly winds have allowed cooler temperatures to reside. Based on forecast soundings across eastern Kansas into Missouri, the thermal profile supports the large majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain, with a warm layer in the lowest 2kft, and wet-bulb temperatures in the mid-30s.
1054 AM PST Sat Dec 3 2016 Deep low pressure will bring rain, wind, and heavy mountain snow to the Inland Northwest tonight into Sunday.
211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues ahead of a cutoff upper level low.
401 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Weak upper trough Sunday into Sunday night.
328 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over South Dakota with a WAA band of pcpn crossing the eastern CWA. With temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain, with pockets of snow.
309 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper low over Mexico with a short wave trough moving across the Northern and Central Plains this afternoon. Best deep layer forcing will occur ahead of the approaching trough this evening through 10Z Sunday. Lows tonight will only cool into the lower 30s in north central to the upper 30s east.
Sharp trough axis sweeps to the CO/KS border around midnight, and clears the SE zones around 6 am Sunday. A modest NW breeze at 10-20 mph Sunday morning will diminish to light SWly less than 10 mph, as weak high pressure translates to near Medicine Lodge by 6 pm.
114 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Snow persists across much of the North Country today, with steady snow expected across the high terrain through tonight.
1236 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area today. The high will move off to the east on Sunday as an upper level disturbance quickly moves to the Great Lakes.
Our main concern, though, is with the passage of the cold front. This cold front will mainly impact north central Idaho and western Montana during the afternoon and/or evening.
1218 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Cool high pressure at the surface over Missouri and Illinois will move eastward today ahead of a trof of low pressure which will deepen over the Great Plains. Mid and high level clouds are already overspreading the area from the southwest as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of the trof.
352 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday.
Will see light LES gradually diminishing today as a ridge moves overhead. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough across most of the U. This closed low makes it east into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and the associated trough makes it into the ern U. An approaching low pressure trough crossing Tue night into Wed will result in southerly winds increasing 25-30 kts Mon night and Tue, strongest over central and eastern sections.
Upper low continues to spin in the Desert SW this afternoon to slowly open and move eastward Sunday while upper ridging amplifies into the Deep South tonight to eastern seaboard Sunday.
210 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 A few showers are moving along a weak convergent zone which has been favoring the Atlantic waters just south of the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower 80s, and winds are fresh across the service area, with brief stronger peaks. This high pressure will continue to push towards the western Atlantic tonight and Sunday while a trough oozes northeastward through the northern Gulf of Mexico undercutting it.
Rain will gradually develop and increase from the south into this evening as the lower atmospheric column moistens in advance of an approaching mid level trough and isentropic upglide develops. A few snow flakes mixed with the rain cannot be ruled out overnight across the eastern Ozarks given the lower wet bulb temperatures. However no accumulation or impacts are expected as temperatures remain above freezing. The rain will come to and end from the west Sunday as the mid level trough makes its way across the region and a weak front pushes across the area.
343 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 (Tonight and Sunday) An unsettled pattern will continue during the next 24 hours as a well developed upper level low remains over northwest Mexico. The highest rainfall amounts(0. Temperatures will remain cold, with lows in the lower 40s and highs Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures will not fall much tonight due to the clouds and rain as lows Sunday morning will remain in the low to mid 40s. By Sunday, a warm front will be along the Gulf coast with a series of low pressure centers forming along the front. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Bu Sunday night, high pressure will briefly build into the region which will push the moisture south somewhat. Temperatures will be a little cooler in areas where the rain ends as clouds decrease somewhat.
1202 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 H5 hand analysis from this evening continues to indicate a fairly chaotic pattern across the lower 48 and Canada. High pressure was located over the eastern Pacific, off the coast of central California. north of this high, a trough of low pressure was located over British Columbia with 100 to 150 meter falls noted across the west coast of Canada. East of this trough, high pressure was located over northern Manitoba with a downstream trough of low pressure located over Quebec. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40s in the western half of the forecast area, where clearing is expected by afternoon.
Freezing levels will drop a little tonight, but with the warming in the lower layers, expect any initial mix of rain/snow on the northern edge to become rain. Surface temperatures around daybreak will hover near freezing in our Bluegrass and southern Indiana counties, but any precip should be light enough not to cause any driving hazards, especially with relatively warm road temperatures. That precip will kick east of here Sunday night, with high pressure building in behind it.
243 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Dry conditions will persist through this evening with surface ridging across the region.
446 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build across the region later tonight through Sunday.
This forcing is expected to continue this evening until the axis of the trough shifts east after midnight. Temperatures through the event are expected to be near or slightly above freezing, which should help mitigate some of the impacts. Once the trough shifts to the east we will see clearing skies on Sunday with winds become west and northwest through the day, which should lead to decent mixing and warmer temperatures with highs climbing into the 40s for many areas.
Upper trough kicks out of Mexico and across Texas Sun night-Mon night. Coastal trof & gradient tightens back up near the coast, and depending on eventual details, may produce a somewhat similar scenario as we saw last night & this morning.
258 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region tonight and Sunday, before moving offshore Sunday night.
With the frontal boundary draped along the Texas coast, and higher surface pressure building in from the north, not much northward movement expected with the warm front. This had led to much cooler daytime temperatures, generally expected to range in the 50s to 60s as South Texas remains socked in. Have cancelled the High Rip Current Risk but Moderate Risk for Dangerous Rip Currents will exist through the overnight for long period swells and elevated swell heights. With the warm front remaining well to the south.
This feature will support the potential for continued light precipitation mainly across east and southeast sections, while also driving a weak cold front into the area, causing clearing from the northwest overnight. There is a very slight chance for isolated areas of brief light freezing rain to develop just prior to the ending of the light rain.
211 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 Upper low continues to spin over the Gulf of California, with split trough moving through the central CONUS. Breezy westerly winds will continue tonight behind the trough. Mild weather will continue Sunday as a weak upper trough passes over the northern plains. Surface winds will become southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough, and temperatures will warm into the mid 30s and 40s. The next upper trough will begin moving into the region Sunday night, bringing chances for snow after midnight across northwestern SD, northeastern WY, and the Black Hills.
The lower atmospheric column will eventually saturate from south to north as the afternoon progresses. An upper level disturbance is currently pushing east into the Plains as and upper level low is located across northeastern Mexico early this morning. This evening as the trough tracks across the region light rain will develop across southeastern Kansas and spread into central Missouri. An increase in clouds and rain spreading into the area will result in highs in the middle 40s to the lower 50s this afternoon.
This moisture was in part rounding the bottom portion of an upper low situated across western Mexico east of central Gulf of California. Lower level moisture upgliding over the region, along with the high altitude moisture have set the stage for a wet and unsettled night. Night lows will only cool into the lower 40s with light easterly winds.