Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, given the trough in the east we will see a few more clouds in the form of fair weather CU and high cirrus. Also we should see a general warming trend as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s. This could lead to less of a ridge valley split but kept close to the 3 to 4 degree split from previous forecast. Right now will stick with sub 15 POPs, but certainly could not rule out a isolated shower near the Cumberland Plateau and near the VA border in some of the higher terrain locations. Temperature wise could be more limited but still climbing into the low to mid 80s for most.
131 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Fair weather with below normal temperatures and humidity will prevail the next few days, as Canadian high pressure works into the region.
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Cool front has moved well offshore with longwave troughing holding cooler airmass in place.
Consensus between models indicates the low- pressure trough stalls across the Florida Peninsula today. The low in the gulf is expected to slide across land, emerging into the western Atlantic Tuesday morning and being picked up by the jet stream, pushing it northeast, offshore of the Carolinas.
/12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Dry weather with slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Monday. Normal morning lows run in the lower 70s while normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s. /22/ Northwest flow aloft combined with the influence of high pressure will help to keep dry conditions through Tuesday.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across Arkansas.
602 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Expansive high pressure will continue to bring favorable aviation conditions through the period. There will be an outside shot for late day thunderstorms to drift south into MBS as a weak cold front settles into northern Michigan. Weak cold front/narrow moisture axis (PW values around 1.
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week.
High pressure will remain in control across the tri-state region through the period, allowing for continued quiet and dry weather. Upper level flow will gradually become southwesterly late in the period, in response to a vigorous approaching upper level low and associated cold front, which will be covered more in the short term section.
The cold front has made it to Lake MI with the dry slot following aloft. The occluded system will gradually shift newd for tnt with the upper trough passage and another cold front passage occurring. Strong cold advection this morning will lessen this afternoon, but high temps will only reach the lower to middle 40s.
155 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Rain will develop by Friday afternoon along and east of I-69 and continue through evening before diminishing from west to east overnight as a strong cold front moves through the area. Sw trough over nw MN will continue to amplify sharply sewd into ern WI this period. Sfc cold front will sharpen in tandem as it edges ewd into cntrl OH Fri evening. WI sw will liftout through cntrl ON Sat as respectable low level thermal trough deepens across the wrn lakes.
404 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
High pressure centered along the Pacific Coast will maintain a dry northerly flow across the Great Basin through the upcoming weekend. Seasonal temperatures today will give way to a gradual warming trend over the weekend as this high nudges eastward.
A low pressure centered over central Minnesota will sag southward overnight dropping a precipitation shield over the region that will gradually change from rain to snow. A winter storm warning was issued for the Minnesota counties bordering Canada due to the higher snowfall amounts there coupled with the strong winds. The combination of these factors combined with the lift from the low in the area will result in lake enhancement across the South Shore of Lake Superior.
127 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure into Friday.
658 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
Have continued mention for the start of this TAF cycle, but could be removed after 14Z as the low level jet moves east. Winds will go light as this high builds in tonight.
High pressure directly overhead this morning with clear skies and near calm winds will still provide for widespread morning lows in the 40s around sunrise except for lower 50s at the coast. High pressure will push NE towards the Carolinas today with onshore E/SE flow developing and low level moisture increasing enough to develop partly sunny skies along the coast in onshore moving Strato-Cu clouds while mostly sunny skies still expected well inland. Skies becoming partly cloudy over inland areas with some increase in high clouds during the overnight hours with lows falling into the lower to middle 50s, while partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected closer to the coast with lows near 60.
1118 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Current low level water vapor loop shows the base of the upper level trough currently over southeast Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon as drier air just off the surface is pushing into Converse and Niobrara counties. It will be breezy late at night across the wind prone areas, and during the day across the high valleys and high plains Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph expected.
main impact will be from a strong cold front crossing the area Friday. Otherwise, after a warm afternoon, much cooler air is coming. A cold front will arrive from the Plains tonight.
At early afternoon, the strong surface cold front was roughly just southeast of the Kansas turnpike and will continue to move across southeast Kansas thru early this evening. Unseasonably cold air will become firmly entrenched across the area Friday in the brisk northerly low level flow as the upper level trof axis rotates across eastern Kansas to the south of the closed low over the Upper Midwest. The deep upper longwave/closed low will be slow to depart into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through Saturday night with temperatures remaining well below seasonal climo.
352 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Latest sfc analysis places the cold front across central IN southwest through srn IL and nrn AR. At any rate, look for the cold frontal boundary to reach our extreme northwest just before midday, Nashville around 4 pm, and then the Plateau around 9 pm.
140 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Friday night.
High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures to the area through Saturday.
Longwave trough deepening over the Central U. At the surface, weakening high pressure along the SE and Mid Atlantic states this morning to move into the W Atlantic later today while cold front dives into the Mississippi River Valley and low pressure area in the NW Carib continues to produce shower activity. Expect another quiet weather day today with mostly clear skies and slightly cooler than average temps. For Saturday, the upper trough will push the cold front through the FL Panhandle while kicking the Carib system North-Northeastward to over Cuba by Saturday evening.
While precip stays to our north, gusty west winds and cooler air will lead to a brisk day. The upper level trough axis and associated vorticity streamer also rotate through after midnight. Forecast soundings are mainly below freezing and have shallow saturation. Saturday looks cloudy and cool thanks to additional CAA under the trough.
A strong cold front is set to move across the TAF sites early this morning, bringing a northerly wind shift and gusty conditions through late afternoon. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s are leading to humidity values in the 25-35 percent range. A large trough axis can be seen entering the northern plains this afternoon on water vapor satellite and this system will be responsible for the coldest front of the season. Some freezing temperatures are possible for the Hill Country and a freeze warning may be needed tomorrow.
A weak system moving through Utah and the Four Corners region will bring breezy northerly winds to the region Friday, most notably down the lower Colorado River Valley.
420 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure into Friday.
426 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
615 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure into Friday.
221 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Areas north of a Hays to Dodge to Garden and Syracuse/Johnson line appear to have a great chance of meeting the true Hard Freeze criteria this morning (28 F or cooler for at least 4 hours). The low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead to significant fire weather risk (see fire weather section in this discussion below). Widespread subfreezing temperatures are expected tonight, with low lying areas of the Ark valley possible bottoming out in the teens by 12Z Saturday.
Friday will end up some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today with the highly amplified pattern in place leading to a deep northerly flow pattern. Some high and mid level cloudiness will continue to crest the upper ridge in the west and drop down over our region leaving skies partly to mostly cloudy at times. This will impact temperatures for tomorrow night so we should see a general warmer trend for lows by sunrise on Saturday. X-Section show a decent batch of mositure running along divide mountains under a WAA pattern with the western ridge beginning to shift eastward.
346 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Big changes are on the way today as a strong cold front barrels across the Mid-South. Rain chances will end from west to east during the overnight period as the large scale forcing downstream of the trough axis shifts eastward. A few areas may briefly dip down to the freezing mark and patchy frost is possible, but most areas will remain in the mid 30s. The upper- level trough will swing across the Mid-South late Saturday, but will have little moisture to work with.
341 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A strong area of low pressure, currently over northern Wisconsin, will continue pushing east of the region today. With high temperatures peaking in the lower 40s, RH values should fall below 20 percent west river.
Somewhat cooler temperatures today and Saturday for eastern areas with highs near normal.
412 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The main focus through the short term period will be the passage of a strong cold front currently located across northwest Arkansas. Longwave troughing and its respective cyclonic flow field will dominate the weather pattern over the majority of the lower 48 with an area of low pressure gradually migrating through the Great Lakes region. The aforementioned attendant strong cold front will push through the ArkLaMiss from the northwest and is progged to enter the Delta by the early afternoon hours and will exit the CWA shortly after daybreak Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, inland areas will remain unseasonably warm in response to a mid/upper level high pressure along the West Coast.
All eyes are on the cold front making a mad dash through the CWA this morning and how much wind we can expect as a result. For cold fronts of this type, often we experience a local enhancement along the eastern edge of the Plateau which often is not captured in the model guidance. At present, the majority of the CWA should stay well above freezing Saturday morning per guidance across the board. So while a widespread freeze is not expected, a couple spots may indeed dip down to freezing for their min T.
307 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Early this morning, a closed mid-level low was centered just west of the Great Lakes region, with a mid-level trough extending southward across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was steadily advancing southeastward across the central U. behind the yesterday's exiting cold front. Satellite imagery showed areas of stratus still in place behind the cold front across much of northeast and east central KS, with some of this cloud cover trying to scatter out across portions of central KS. As this cloud cover scatters out through sunrise, expect continued cold-air advection to cause temperatures to drop into the low/mid 30s across far northeast and east central KS, with readings plunging into the upper 20s across north central KS.
Though highs will not exceed the 40s in most locations, dewpoints are expected to crash below 0F Friday afternoon in assoc/w vigorous mixing in the lowest 4 KFT, with minimum RHs <= 15 percent. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the rest of today with lows tonight in the lower 20s.
416 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will build across the region today and move off the coast allowing a return southerly flow to develop Saturday.
617 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
244 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
112 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will build over the southeastern part of the country with fair weather and moderating temperatures expected through the end of the workweek.
Mostly clear and cold this morning with high pressure over eastern Montana. Upper ridge along the west coast spilling moisture across the Canadian prairies with northerly flow and high clouds beginning to reach into the northern zones. Cloud cover will continue to increase today while ridge slowly nudges eastward. Saturday temperatures will also be influenced by downslope flow and compressional heating in advance of the cold front.
258 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Colder, below normal temperatures will continue to move into the region as high pressure builds. Winds will be much lower today as the positively tilted trough continues to move away from the region. All areas of the CWA will experience freezing temperatures Friday night and into Saturday morning. Saturday will be a little warmer as the winds will be more westerly allowing for some down slope wind.
Models hint at some precipitation over the southern zones/Big Horns late tonight as a warm front crosses the area. Have included slight chance PoP's for this, mainly over the higher terrain as we may only see sprinkles or virga at the lower elevations.
Strengthening warm advection on the western flank of eroding high pressure will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the averages today. Rain can be expected on Saturday as a cold front leads a high amplitude trough out of the Midwest, and across the Upper Ohio Region. Adjustments for this period included timing tweaks to catgegorical POPs based on dry slot and trough axis forecasts blended from the latest deterministic trends.
155 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Friday night.
350 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Moisture and rainfall will be making a return today into Saturday as a cold front swings through the area. An upper level trough is currently moving southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes. The southern portion of the trough is rapidly expanding south and will reach the Texas/Mexico border this evening. Meanwhile, tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and approaching trough of low pressure will enhance southerly flow. The bulk of convection should be rolling through tonight as the cold front moves through.
Early this morning, light rain was mainly north of an elongated low pressure system stretching from northwest Wisconsin to east central Wisconsin. This low pressure system will pivot over northeast Wisconsin today into tonight before lifting northeast of the region late tonight into Saturday. Satellite imagery this morning with radar support show a dry slot wrapping into the state ahead of the mid level low pressure system over eastern Minnesota. Meanwhile as the low pivots and drifts east over the state, the deformation area will approach north central Wisconsin late today and then sag into a bit more of north central Wisconsin tonight.
356 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The significant upper low that brought the strong winds and some of the first snow of the season, albeit only a dusting, is moving slowly away.
Upper level ridging will remain in control for the next several days, producing dry conditions and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. The ridge will weaken under pressure from a few smaller scale waves over the Pacific by the end of the weekend.
Then, by Mon, an upper trough will move into the upper midwest sending a cold front through the region during the day. Freezing temperatures will again be possible mainly across northern OK Tue morning behind this front. The highest chances will likely be near the Red River where strong isentropic ascent is expected. However, the GFS suggests there may be enough moisture accompanying a secondary trough Wed so this may be something to keep an eye on.
Another sunny and warmer day today with highs uniformly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Late this afternoon and tonight clouds increase ahead of the cold front and winds will continue to increase.
High pressure is stacked over the region with low level ridging centered over northeast Florida and upper level ridging centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, allowing mostly zonal flow aloft. Model guidance for minimum temperatures has shown a significant warm bias the past few nights, so have kept forecast minimum temperatures below much if not all of the guidance on hand, with lows dipping into the low 40s. A mean upper-level long wave trough will remain nearly stationary over the central CONUS.
/Issued 308 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ The much anticipated strong cold front has pushed through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning, with much cooler temperatures and gusty northwesterly winds following it. Most, if not all, of the forecast area should see freezing temperatures tonight, with favored locations likely to see a hard freeze.
316 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 upper trough swinging through Central Plains with an upper ridge over the Western US. The trough axis will slowly move east but will be slow to exit the region. A strong cold front blew in last evening with with a gusty north wind and dusty conditions. After unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday in the 80s it will be much cooler today with area highs mainly in the 50s. light wind and dry air will combine for efficient radiational cooling with readings falling to or below freezing for many locations.
1201 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Extrapolated timing of the cold front currently moving through NoTX has it reaching CLL around 11-12Z. Cold front is still on its way. Hires data suggests we'll start seeing a broken line of shra develop once it nears the Highway 59 area in the morning.
344 AM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows deep low pressure over northern WI, with high pressure over eastern MT and WY. High pressure to the west will move over and east of the area today, with cool temperatures remaining across the area. Milder conditions, close to average, will return for the weekend as ridge over the west coast nudges eastward.
A high amplitude ridge along the west coast today will begin to expand eastward on Saturday. The inversion will remain intact through Saturday which will produce patch fog in the morning and hazy conditions in the afternoon for the lower valleys.
A little leftover moisture in the northerly flow will allow for isolated light snow showers over the northern mountains Saturday morning and afternoon before upper ridging dries the weather out.
357 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cold front and deep upper low pressure system to head east into the region today. Skies are expected to clear tonight, allowing readings to fall into the lower/mid 30s.
A Canadian cold front is quickly moving south and southeast across North Texas and Arkansas. Aloft a short wave is dropping southeast across the plains helping to amplify the the already in place trough. Instability will be limited, however enough lift will be present to provide a few thunderstorms and scattered to widespread showers as the cold front sweeps through. Tonight along the coast a wind adv may be needed as more mixing is expected near the warmer waters.
308 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The much anticipated strong cold front has pushed through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning, with much cooler temperatures and gusty northwesterly winds following it. Most, if not all, of the forecast area should see freezing temperatures tonight, with favored locations likely to see a hard freeze.
249 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure into Friday.
221 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
The upper low pressure trough was over the eastern US, with a strong upper northwest flow into AR. This has allowed the Canadian high pressure to filter this far south. The upper low pressure trough will move to the eastern US and is expected to steer Hur.
256 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 255 PM CDT Large upper level trough still situated across the region this afternoon and in this pattern, cloud shield has really expanded.
After these restrictions clear out, the cold front will move southeast of our area during this evening. As drier air moves in behind the cold front, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period. The remainder of the forecast still looks on track; showers and thunderstorms remain likely from Tallahassee northeastward into SW/south central Georgia this afternoon as the cold front moves through these areas. Highs will be in the lower- mid 80s across most of our area, and will likely remain in the upper 70s in parts of SE Alabama behind the cold front.
309 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was located over northeast Wisconsin. For tonight, the short wave trough over northeast Wisconsin will move southeast into Lower Michigan. On Thursday and Thursday evening, a short wave trough and cold front will move south through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Since there is still some convergence along the departing cold front, introduced a small rain chance for this time period.
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front will remain stalled near the New England coast through early Thursday morning with occasional heavy rain and a few thunderstorms occurring, especially this evening and overnight.
307 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Another quiet and cool night ahead as high pressure shifts south.
204 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Expect showers and thunderstorms today and this evening along and ahead of a cold front.
1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 WV imagery this morning showing a stagnant pattern with an anomalous upstream ridge across the wrn half of the CONUS and a deep longwave trof to the east. At the sfc, large area of high pressure was building southward into the Central Plains.
249 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Synoptic scale ridging is pushing east over the TN Valley with a trough axis currently crossing the TN Valley. The higher winds aloft and stronger pressure gradient at the surface have contributed to gusty northwest winds today.
1038 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A thick blanket of wildfire smoke will remain over the region the next few days promoting poor air quality and cooler temperatures.
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The weather will be quiet and cool today across our region in a highly amplified weather pattern in between an upper ridge axis along the western CONUS and an upper trough to the east from Quebec south toward the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was oriented along the high plains. A cool airmass remained in place, and pre dawn temperatures averaged in the low 40s in the low/mid 40s, with a few hours of cooling left this morning. Overall pattern will be an upper level ridge over the rockies and plains.