Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE BIGGER STORY COMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 OR 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
540 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS IS STEERING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD WITH THE LEADING EDGE NOW PUSHING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
305 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THERE IS ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR A FEW REPORTS WEST OF OUR AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE AND GARRETT COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE W WEST OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DRY IN THE MEANTIME EVEN THOUGH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLS INTO THIS RIDGE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA BY LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY.
A SMALL RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE ARE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF SRN CA WEATHER. TONIGHT A TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROA222 CH THE AREA.
455 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. SFC RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS NE TX INTO CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME AC NEAR 10-12KFT AFTER DARK THIS EVENING.
THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED TROF FROM UPR MI TOWARD SE ONTARIO. AIR MASS IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW PRES IS VERY COLD WITH 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS -26C.
1130 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 GENERALLY MVFR CIGS REMAIN AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS.
A cold front will move into the region overnight bringing much colder air from the Northern Plains region. Highs will be relegated to much below freezing for the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon. Settling high pressure and radiational cooling should lead to cooler conditions on Monday morning with not as much wind.
BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S MONDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SW ONTARIO. LAWSON MVFR CIGS WERE COMMON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COMPUTER MODELS HINTING AT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG. WHILE CONCURRENTLY A BREEZY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA /15-20 MPH/. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH RAISES CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 500 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /40S AND 50S/. AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOT USHERING IN AN OVERLY COLD AIRMASS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK. WITH THE SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WILL BE A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTS.
436 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF TODAY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH. WILL BE MONITORING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG FROM BURLINGTON TO TRIBUNE WEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING FOG LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED FREEZING FOG AS A RESULT. MAY SEE SOME MORNING FREEZING FOG OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG ONCE AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES.
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
544 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ALL THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP NICELY SO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE SURFACE WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WILL BE THINNER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER SO FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS VICINITIES AND ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SE UT. FLOW AGAIN GOES NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY. OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
1245 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA CAUSING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -40 DEGREE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. AND PERHAPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN SNOW COVERED AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY REACHED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER AREAS OF ASPEN-VAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ALL THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP NICELY SO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE SURFACE WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WILL BE THINNER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER SO FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS VICINITIES AND ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SE UT. FLOW AGAIN GOES NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY. OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AN AMPLIFIED 500-MB VORT MAX WITHIN BASE OF BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE. STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENEWD OVER THE NRN GULF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NW FLOW OF 8G16 KTS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MIX OUT THE LOWER STRATUS DECK. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 18/06Z.
A SECOND PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
Will start the short term under the influence of very cold Canadian high pressure.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA AND SHOULD REACH GUYMON BY AROUND 14Z AND AT KDHT AND KAMA AROUND 16Z. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THEN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD FORM AS WELL. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN NW ONTARIO AND ERN MANITOBA. THIS UPPER LOW TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST AND SOME MOISTURE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATER MONDAY.
AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BIGGER STORY COMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
The cold front will move into the Big Country during the early evening hours and be through all of West Central Texas by sunrise.
601 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 Arctic high pressure will continue to slowly build into central and southeast Illinois today. Temperatures at 3 AM range from the single digits in the far northern portion of the forecast area, to the lower 20s along and south of I-70. Arctic airmass due to 1034 mb Canadian high pressure dropping southward into the Northern Plains and to move into the MS river valley Monday night, and into the OH/TN river valleys Tue.
353 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
110 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
Meanwhile, ahead of this feature, temperatures have held up in the low 30s across central Kentucky and southern Indiana thanks to a stubborn stratus deck.
The main band at this hour was composed of some weak echoes across Spokane county through the higher Palouse, expanding into the central Panhandle. So the threat of widespread freezing drizzle is not anticipated, but this thinking will be revisited and adjusted if temperatures do show signs of cooling more than expected.
403 AM PST SUN JAN 17 2016 DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER REGION EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT SURGES QUICKLY SOUTH. AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF FORECAST AT KLAW WHERE FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOME DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL YESTERDAY. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY OVER NORTHERN ONE-QUARTER OR SO OF OKLAHOMA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 FIRST LEAD IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS RESULTING IN NW FLOW. THE RIDGE LACKS SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO IMPEDE THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN TONIGHT DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP ON SUN.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST AND TAMPA BAY REGION BY MID-MORNING AND EXIT THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
1257 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL YESTERDAY. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY OVER NORTHERN ONE-QUARTER OR SO OF OKLAHOMA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 420 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING THE 500 HPA TEMPERATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL SLOWLY START TO ERODE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA WITH INCREASING LOCAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SURFACE INTO 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW YORK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF UNITED STATES AND CANADA TODAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE ONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STREAM ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS (AROUND 1.
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
604 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. COMBINATION OF CAA/CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN YDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROF AND SHOULD DEEPEN THE TROF EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRST TASTE OF FALL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSH INTO THE REGION.
341 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SOLIDLY SITUATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. AND AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTH STILL EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA'S TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES S TX. KEPT CLOSE TO HPC VALUES FOR EST RAINFALL WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST VALUES S OF THE CWA. COOLER MX TEMPS ARE IN STORE TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN. THEN SOME WEAK CAA TONIGHT WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MN TEMPS TONIGHT AND MX TEMPS SAT. THEN MN TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ACROSS THE N AND MX TEMPS A TAD WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCSTD.
314 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO YESTERDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR BEHIND IT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH70S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
STILL LOOKING AT START OF PERIOD SATURDAY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AS STRONG CFP AND SUPPORTING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. /ISSUED 250 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015/ THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TOWARD THE NE STATES AND THE FRONT MOVES E AND S OF THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ENDING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
VFR WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WELL SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST AUTUMN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS.
SOME STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING DIFFICULTY IN INDENTIFYING TRUE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE TO SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 AVIATION ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2015 INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND A COLD FRONT.
147 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. H5 TROF WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENING. BY SATURDAY NLY CAA ALONG WITH A MEAN H5 TROF WILL PROBABLY MEAN FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. WHILE THE SE MOST LOCATIONS COULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. BUT THEN WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.
324 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 COLD FRONT APPROACHING I-40 WILL CONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY.
636 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE SAME BIG PICTURE IDEA CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE, IN WHICH A SLOW MOVING, DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NY/PA THIS WEEKEND. CONSENSUS FROM OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC ALIKE IS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER, SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION, AS IT PERTAINS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS WET AREA-WIDE, WITH GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT LOWER-LEVELS, WELL DEFINED FRONTOGENESIS FORCING, AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS.
241 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY.
442 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DECENT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING WITH A BIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPING TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY. SO WITH THE HIGH PWAT VALUES. A SPEED MAX DROPPING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL HELP PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BUILD IN.
THE REMNANTS OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A BIT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL ALSO OCCUR AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BRING A TASTE OF FALL. THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
630 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
412 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TWO AXES. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. DURING THIS PERIOD THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT JOPLIN MO TO ARDMORE OK TO CHILDRESS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SE TX ON SATURDAY AND DEW PTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
333 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING FROM ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. REINFORCING THE POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS. WITH N/NWRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NV AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. BUT EVEN LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
650 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
506 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO FRI NIGHT AHD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.