Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 226 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 The region remains on the west side of a trough that's stretched across the eastern CONUS. The main trough axis will shift to the east coast tomorrow while high pressure builds in at the surface across the region.
141 PM PDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Onshore flow today will allow for cooler temperatures to spread inland and for the return of low clouds and fog.
An approaching trough off the coast is splitting as it moves onshore today. The northern part is currently pushing a cold front across the forecast area while the southern part will form a closed low off the coast of northern California. The northern portion of the trough will impact the forecast area today as it pushes a cold front through the region and produces some rain as well as some high mountain snow. Temperatures today will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and overnight lows will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler. Cold front will impact KPDT, KALW, KBDN and KRDM through midday with low clouds and precipitation.
As the cold air deepens somewhat, and with warm air advection occurring above the cold dome, and with the lower levels becoming more saturated, it looks like areas of light rain and snow will develop mainly east of I-25, with some areas of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain possible based on projected soundings.
237 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 The closed low responsible for the recent bout of clouds and rain has finally moved far enough east for some sun over eastern KS per 19z satellite imagery. At the surface, the gradient between the low pressure over the mid MS river valley and high pressure across the western plains remains strong enough for some gusty north winds this afternoon. The ideal radiational cooling setup is expected to allow frost to develop overnight as lows fall into the lower 30s. The latest guidance for temps suggests the potential for freezing temps may be a little farther southwest within the narrow ridge axis, especially for the low lying areas in the flint hills.
204 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Low pressure continues to slowly move to the east with the heaviest showers currently in our northeast.
229 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Strong upper low east of the area still moving slowly E-NE this afternoon, resulting in ample cyclonic flow and cloud cover across much of the area. The low will begin to lift more NE tonight, which will help accelerate clearing across the eastern zones, however, have opted for cloud cover through the overnight period in those zones.
A cold front will impact especially the northern third of the forecast area today. An approaching area of low pressure looks to produce shower activity for portions of southeastern Oregon Saturday afternoon and evening, though coverage and timing remains in some question. Rain showers around KBKE/KMYL this afternoon and evening along a cold front, causing local MVFR and mountain obscurations. Surface winds: SW to SE 5-15 kt, shifting W to NW this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through.
1244 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Widespread rain will transition to scattered showers this weekend as low pressure slowly traverses the region. By tonight, rainfall will give way to scattered and light shower activity as the low digs over the Virginias and drops convective temperature via cooling mid levels. Ensemble guidance showing high probability that broad troughing will set up across the eastern half of the US through much week.
Otherwise, temperatures overnight are expected to dip down into the lower to mid 30s. With most of the area already having seen freezing temperatures and true sustained "hard freeze" temperatures (~28) looking unlikely, holding off on any headlines. For Saturday, expect a very nice October day as southwesterly surface flow ushers in some slightly warmer air. Temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 60s area-wide. However, the nice weather will be short-lived as a cold front slides southeast across the area from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
303 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 H20 vapor loop was clearly showing the center of the upper low just northwest of Chattanooga early this afternoon. Then, a ridge of high pressure will approach the area Saturday night. With thick cloud cover, temperatures will only fall a few degrees to the lower and middle 50s overnight despite northerly winds. The long period will be generally dry and match closely with the change to a distinctively autumnal weather pattern, as a broad H500 trough slowly deepens across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS and the corresponding, elongated area of polar high pressure continues to build from Canada into the Mid-West.
213 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A ridge of high pressure is keeping us dry and mostly sunny today with temps running close to normal. The ridge will flatten out tomorrow as a trough tracks over the Northern Rockies.
219 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A deep layered area of low pressure will affect much of the Eastern United States into Saturday.
332 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Through Saturday: The upper low that has brought persistent cyclonic flow accompanied by widespread stratus, occasional light rain and drizzle, and gusty northwest winds, will gradually lift out of our region as we go into the weekend. Before that happens, another lobe or two of ascent rotating around the upper low may bring additional light rain and drizzle through early evening into mainly northeast portions of the forecast area.
321 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue tonight as low pressure remains over Ohio. The threat for showers lingers Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
101 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A large upper level low spinning across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning will will translate slowly east today and tonight with ridging attempting to work in from the north and west by tonight. As the low pulls away, drying in the mid-levels from the west will put an end to any lingering showers/drizzle this morning. This suggests clouds may be quite stubborn and with the ridge axis holding just to the northwest tonight, widespread clearing may be too optimistic for much of the area.
231 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 As the slowly moving ridge upstream in central Minnesota nears, clouds will gradually begin to clear, especially in southeastern Minnesota. Tomorrow, the ridge moves overhead helping the clouds clear out in the afternoon.
146 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper level trough will affect much of the Eastern Seaboard today and into the weekend with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. Quite the fall feel out there today with our weather pattern being dominated by the upper low that is currently in place over the TN Valley leading to mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions with gusts over 20 mph. Moisture remains shallow across the area so even though we are seeing some showers being generated by the upper low, not getting a ton of reports of actual measurable rainfall. Lower than average 500mb heights and cloudy skies will continue to keep us cool today with highs topping out in the low to mid-60s across the area. With a cooler airmass in place, tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid-40s.
First our focus will be on a frosty start to Saturday before a late morning/early afternoon nice warmup, then gusty winds come in behind the cold front Saturday afternoon. It is a good set up for radiational cooling with the ridge axis overhead resulting in light winds and clear skies. The cold front appears to be speeding up a bit, but the cold air will only gradually filter in.
1021 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A strong storm system is crossing the southeast CONUS while upper ridging is building across the central CONUS. The ridge axis moved into the eastern Dakotas earlier tonight, with upper flow becoming southwesterly over the NE WY and far western SD. An upper trough across Canada will push south into MT/ND. A strong cold front will cross the area Saturday morning, bringing gusty NW winds and more seasonable temperatures.
Today's "heat" will quickly be replaced by colder temperatures tonight and tomorrow as a cold front sweeps through the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening, with northwest winds expected area-wide by midnight tonight.
High pressure currently over the western Permian Basin is on track to slide southeast before reaching South Texas later tonight. Saturday looks stellar with light winds and highs only a touch milder than today under weak ridging.
This ridge axis shifts east into the overnight hours with a better focus across NW IA into S MN. It is over this area that the most favorable radiational cooling conditions reside and thus have continued to hedge low temperatures toward the lower half of guidance or somewhere near 30 with mid 30s to lower 40s expected elsewhere. Upper wave slides eastward along the Canadian Border for Saturday dragging a cold front through the region for the second half of the day. Temperatures in the lower levels continue to support high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s although may see a backward slip in temperatures through the afternoon for some of our western zones where strong CAA arrives soonest.
All-in-all it has been a cool, gray day with temps in the low 50s.
1115 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Most of the low to mid level clouds that persisted near Eagle and Aspen as well as Hayden and Steamboat Springs finally lifted earlier this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in while some midlevel warm air advection takes place. For those of you that saw the clouds yesterday, high temps should run about 10 degrees warmer than what you saw yesterday. The ridge will get flattened Saturday as a trough moves across the Northern Rockies but any precip associated with the trough will stay well to our north. High temperatures will be very similar to those seen today, maybe a bit warmer but nothing considerable.
Behind the exiting system high pressure will build in across the Mid-South.
138 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue today ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. The threat for showers continues Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
High pressure settling south across the area in concert with clear skies and slackening winds will support good radiational cooling overnight into early Saturday morning. Cannot rule out patchy low-lying areas dipping just below freezing, but am not expecting a widespread freeze. Building thickness and modest southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will support one more day of warm temperatures.
An upper lvl trof which was responsible for windy conditions over the past few days is finally departing into the southeastern U. and weak ridging aloft is building over West TX and Southeast NM. However, very dry air remains in place and lows should bottom out below normal for the 3rd night in a row with near freezing temperatures possible again at Marfa. The upper ridge will begin to flatten out Saturday and the 500 hpa pattern will transition to quasi-zonal through the rest of this weekend. Tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period as a weak cold front moves into the area just in time for Halloween.
223 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 The upper level ridge axis over us will pass to the east tonight, with more of a zonal flow aloft then prevailing through Saturday. The main change will be the arrival of a cold front.
SCT to BKN mid level clouds wrapping around the western periphery of an extratropical cyclone centered over eastern Tennessee will continue to work into all terminals with the possible exception of BPT this afternoon. Gusty winds this afternoon will relax after sunset this evening as high pressure builds across the northern gulf coast behind the eastward departing cyclone. These winds will finally relax by this evening as high pressure begins to settle across the region.
921 AM PDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Onshore flow today will allow for cooler temperatures to spread inland and for the return of low clouds and fog.
Any shower activity from the trof passage will fade after sunset, leaving mainly just GNV with any VCSH chances through the overnight hours with flow off the NE GOMEX. A trough associated with this low will move east across area early this morning, with a line of showers associated ahead of it. A series of troughs will pivot east southeast across area through Tonight, the strongest of which will pass through overnight Tonight. With these troughs moving through the chance for showers will continue through Tonight. Noticeably cooler air will advect into region Today, and remain this period. Highs Saturday will trend a little cooler than Today.
An upper low will continue to produce showers for most of the day over all sites.
An upper low was centered over the HUN CWA this morning and can be observed via radar and satellite imagery. It will be difficult to time breaks in the precipitation today as additional bands on the west side of the low rotate south and southeast into the area. In fact, atop the highest elevations of Lookout Mtn, temperatures may stay just below 50 all day. Overnight lows will range form the mid 40s to the low 50s. Upper level heights will continue to climb on Saturday as the center of the low moves into the Mid-Atlantic. These locations in the southern Cumberland Plateau will have an upslope component to the low-level wind field that could keep chances for light showers going throughout the day on Saturday.
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure slowly sliding off to our east will bring pleasant and warm conditions with temperatures pushing a bit above normal this afternoon across central and western Nebraska to close out the workweek. For Saturday, a broad trof moving across Canada will push a cold front through the area. Moisture with the front is very limited so expect a dry passage with a bit of cloudiness, but the low level flow will increase from the northwest and generate blustery conditions by Saturday afternoon as cooler air moves in.
337 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A low pressure system will move northeast away from the area through Saturday.
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A weak cold front will slowly move through the Panhandles on Saturday. Therefore, highs on Saturday are expected to be warmer than today with readings in the mid 70's to the lower 80's.
The deep upper low that brought high winds to western Kansas the past few days continues to move into the Mid Atlantic region today while upper level ridging builds over the central High Plains from the west. At the surface, high pressure was building east through western Kansas this afternoon. As the high pressure moves east, light southwest winds will develop across the area. A low pressure trough will move east into far western Kansas during the day with northerly winds developing behind it. By Saturday evening, a cold front will drop south across western Kansas in response to an upper level disturbance moving out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains.
Mid 30s for 2m temperatures will be common, with clear/calm conditions supporting a very thin layer of freezing temperatures at the ground for frost formation. Most likely areas for at or just below freezing temperatures will be normally colder low-lying areas.
1153 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Large upper low over mid-MS valley will continue to move very slowly eastward today.
There could be a short break in the rain later today across the southwest half of the area but more showers will likely move into western sections later tonight on the backside of the upper low as it moves into western North Carolina. Tonight as the system begins to shift east tonight snow levels could fall enough for rain and snow at the highest elevations of the Smokies tonight. An upper level low will move east today and tonight with abundant low level moisture and rounds of showers moving through the region.
A pacific cold front has pushed southeastward across west-central Montana and north central Idaho as of 430 pm MDT today. Temperatures will trend 15-20 degrees cooler Saturday, with highs reaching into the 40s across western Montana valleys and into the 50s across north central Idaho valleys.
Temperatures have plummeted down to the lower 50s this evening and will continue over night into the upper 40s to low 50s. An Upper low continues to bring drizzle across our eastern counties this evening and will continue overnight. Behind the exiting system high pressure will build in across the Mid-South.
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move slowly across the forecast area on Saturday, with winds becoming north at less than 15 knots. /Issued 250 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ A weak cold front will slowly move through the Panhandles on Saturday. Therefore, highs on Saturday are expected to be warmer than today with readings in the mid 70's to the lower 80's.
A large gyre of an upper low was centered over eastern middle TN. Water vapor imagery shows several spokes of vorticity rotating around the low.
Low pressure continues to slowly move to the east with the heaviest showers currently in our northeast.
928 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue tonight as low pressure remains over Ohio. The threat for showers lingers Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
742 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Scattered showers will be the main weather feature this weekend as low pressure slowly traverses the region. This will persist through the evening as coverage will become more isolated through the night with low pressure centered to the southwest. As well, moisture remaining in the low levels and spots of clearing are likely through the night. Tomorrow, with the days heating, and the upper low center remaining in the area, showers will become more scattered again across the area. Ensemble guidance showing high probability that broad troughing will set up across the eastern half of the US through much week. Patchy MVFR cigs and isold showers are expected this eve with low pressure across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
727 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A low pressure system will move northeast away from the area through Saturday.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue tonight as low pressure remains over Ohio. The threat for showers lingers Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
Upper low continues to bring light rain across the area, and will continue overnight. Upper level low moving slowly eastward across eastern TN this evening. Scattered showers continue to move south across the area in correlation to the low.
A cold front is continuing to work its way through the area this evening, with showers extending from northern Harney County northeast into southern Baker County and the Lower Treasure Valley, and then on into the West Central and Boise Mountains.
541 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE High pressure overhead with light winds and VFR conditions areawide tonight and Saturday.
711 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 As the slowly moving ridge upstream in central Minnesota nears, clouds will gradually begin to clear, especially in southeastern Minnesota. Tomorrow, the ridge moves overhead helping the clouds clear out in the afternoon.
Otherwise, only thing of note is persistent wrap around stratocu ~4500 to 6000 ft associated with slowly departing and expansive low pressure system over much of the E CONUS.
1018 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 GOES-16 differential water vapor shows a potent upper level low over the Tennesse Vally; the low pushed a surface front through the keys this morning and advected a dry and stable air mass into the region. The cooler air mass moving over the warmer waters this afternoon produced stratocumulus clouds and no rainfall. The cyclonic flow will influence the local weather through the weekend and filter a modified cooler air mass over the area and keep daytime high temperatures near the low to mid 80s and overnight lows near the low to mid 70s.
The pesky upper low that has been responsible for our cloudy, drizzly, windy, raw days the last two days has finally pushed on off to the north and east. /28/ Prior discussion below: Through Saturday: The upper low that has brought persistent cyclonic flow accompanied by widespread stratus, occasional light rain and drizzle, and gusty northwest winds, will gradually lift out of our region as we go into the weekend. Before that happens, another lobe or two of ascent rotating around the upper low may bring additional light rain and drizzle through early evening into mainly northeast portions of the forecast area.
So confidence is low on the lower conditions at this time, and not including it in the current forecast.
644 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Skies are clear over much of our CWA, while mild temperatures remain in place as a warm front has lifted northeast and east into the RRV. The cold front tonight should bring a period of windy conditions, and BUFKIT mixing heights/momentum transfer shows a few locations may see gusts Saturday morning approach 40 mph in our west (along and west of the escarpment) with better chances toward Sargent/Ransom counties. A cold front brings cloud cover to the area for Saturday, along with a slight chance for light showers across the northern Red River Valley.
The closed low responsible for the recent bout of clouds and rain has finally moved far enough east for some sun over eastern KS per 19z satellite imagery. At the surface, the gradient between the low pressure over the mid MS river valley and high pressure across the western plains remains strong enough for some gusty north winds this afternoon. The ideal radiational cooling setup is expected to allow frost to develop overnight as lows fall into the lower 30s. The latest guidance for temps suggests the potential for freezing temps may be a little farther southwest within the narrow ridge axis, especially for the low lying areas in the flint hills.
A cold front will bring an increasing chance for rain and snow to the plains and valleys later today and overnight, bringing areas light accumulating snowfall to the plains as winds shift more northerly and decrease. Surface cold front extends largely east-west across north-central Montana this afternoon, and will continue to slowly move south toward the Great Falls area late this afternoon into this evening. Despite decreasing cloud cover especially over north-central Montana by Saturday night, temperatures will drop well below freezing into the teens and 20s, resulting in freezing of any leftover moisture on roads or other travel surfaces.
Ridge axis is slowly shifting east tonight but no appreciable changes to the weather are expected until tomorrow. The upper level ridge axis over us will pass to the east tonight, with more of a zonal flow aloft then prevailing through Saturday. The main change will be the arrival of a cold front.
05 The region remains on the west side of a trough that's stretched across the eastern CONUS. The main trough axis will shift to the east coast tomorrow while high pressure builds in at the surface across the region.
ongoing MVFR ceilings should remain common across far Northwest Arkansas into the morning hours Saturday before clearing with the exiting upper level low. /Issued 229 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ Strong upper low east of the area still moving slowly E-NE this afternoon, resulting in ample cyclonic flow and cloud cover across much of the area. The low will begin to lift more NE tonight, which will help accelerate clearing across the eastern zones, however, have opted for cloud cover through the overnight period in those zones.
647 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Two concerns in the short term are the potential for dense fog tonight/Saturday morning and then the timing of a cold front Saturday afternoon and it's potential implications for afternoon temperatures out toward Alexandria and Morris.
320 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A ridge of high pressure is keeping us dry and mostly sunny today with temps running close to normal. The ridge will flatten out tomorrow as a trough tracks over the Northern Rockies.
1045 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A low pressure system will move northeast away from the area through Saturday.