Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE APRIL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO 90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT 800MB.
A RAPID WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
331 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST.
335 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015 East northeast flow around a high pressure centered in western Ontario continues to keep an extensive area of cloud cover across much of Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska. Highs today are expected to top out in the lower 60s. The lower boundary layer remains mixed overnight and winds of 5 to 10 mph will be common with dry air advection and should keep any fog formation at bay. Lows tonight should cool into the upper 30s along the Nebraska border to the lower 40s elsewhere.
413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. ONE SUCH TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN ATTM BUT WAS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED. ANOTHER MORE DEFINED AND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH. AND A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WAS CREEPING BACK INTO THE REGION. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. BEHIND WHATEVER EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WE GET WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH. THIS STRONGER TROUGH HAS BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH A LITTLE AND BUILDS BACK INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD THROUGH WRN ID. TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
131 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT DEEP RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR TERM. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING TROUGH.
314 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHING AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ERODES THE MOISTURE. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE RE- ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.
319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO SW TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
259 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY. FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.
112 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
125 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THIS WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND LEFT THIS ALONE FOR NOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE VERSUS DRIZZLE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR WESTERN CWA AND THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. AS THE DAY ROLLS ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E.
107 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
308 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS THE LARGE CENTRAL CONUS CYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SECONDARY WAVE WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 40S. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. BUT RAP SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
130 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
In the upper levels, a trough over The Great Plains will move into the lower Mississippi Valley by morning. The cold front at the surface is currently moving very slow and is draped over northern Alabama and southern Mississippi. Rain chances will increase overnight as the cold front approaches from the west. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
SPEED MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCE UVV WITH SURFACE/850 LOWS ALSO COMING ACROSS THE AREA. INCH OR LESS IN PARTS OF ERN AND SRN WI LATER TUPPER LOW PROGGD TO SHIFT EWD FROM NW IA INTO WI LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE/850 TROUGH WORKS ACROSS LATER TNGT. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM SHOW THE HIGHEST QPF WITH THESE FEATURES TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM MN. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH LOW AND TROUGH DRAWING CLOSER. UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO OH VLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH FLOW REMAINS WEAKLY CYCLONIC.
237 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 The Upper Level low that sat over the southwestern portions of the US through the weekend is finally on its way out. This upper level low will continue to move north and east through the short term. This may help keep overnight lows a tad warmer, especially over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. As the upper level low continues to move eastward, a dry northwest flow will develop and continue through late week.
350 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVERSTAYING ITS WELCOME FROM THIS WEEKEND HAS NUDGED EAST OF LFT. CDFNT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR THE KLFT/KARA TAF SITES THEN SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LAFAYETTE IS CURRENTLY HAVING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY.
THIS IN TURN WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP RAIN SUSTAINED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF AN E/SE MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENLTY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. THOUGH THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTHEAST AS MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. KOVACIK MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
342 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
1059 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 THERE IS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA FORM THE BACK SIDE OVER THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THEEASTERN NEBRASKA BORDER.
918 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
308 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
1031 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS MANY SITES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS SUSTAINED 40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS 55-65 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
328 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SRN MN/WRN IA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND. OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY EXITED THE MID STATE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN STILL OCCURRING, MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE.
236 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE IOWA GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE TO THE EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN HOW WET THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
942 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAVE SUSTAINED WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I15. DENSE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN THE HELENA VALLEY, BUT IS NOW THINNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HELENA VALLEY, INCLUDING THE KHLN TERMINAL, WHERE FREEZING FOG WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER 15Z THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 20-21Z.
EXPECT A MINOR WIND SHIFT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 40S. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. BUT RAP SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF CSV AROUND 20Z, WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BEHIND IT.
1051 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 The large upper low currently centered over northwest Iowa will be slow to move east, still influencing our weather through Wednesday. Across northern Missouri, an approaching vorticity spoke associated with the upper low will skirt the area this afternoon and evening, returning cloud cover and perhaps enough lift/moisture for some flurries - but no measurable snowfall is expected. With the clouds and weak cold air advection, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Wednesday afternoon, but no precipitation is expected.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT ANY SHOWER ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
316 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
931 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND FILL WITH SNOWS SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MN. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
1218 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. 25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF MQT-IMT. AS THE DAY ROLLS ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E.
PROBABLY EVEN ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW (-32 MB AT 500 MB/-18 C AT 700 MB) OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING.
200 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY NOT DRY OUT.
243 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OMAHA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAD SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
1127 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE. WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
351 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. SLOWLY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
318 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850 MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MAIN FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK. MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
252 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
146 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
101 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1003 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 Back edge of the lower cloud deck was roughly along the Indiana border late this morning. As a deep upper low currently over southwest Minnesota tracks slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, clouds will spread back into central Illinois and some light precipitation will be possible across the north. Models are in good agreement with the track of the low and its expected QPF across the area. As the low slowly slides by to the north, light snow/flurries will continue into Wednesday as well. Once the low departs the region, upper heights will rise significantly by the end of the week.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARSHALL. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING ISSUES TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN. MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY START MOVING EAST. JUMPING BETWEEN 015 AND 050 UNTIL THE COLD FRONT GETS HERE. THOUGH RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW WORKING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFT IN A PAINFULLY SLOW MANNER ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1034 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND FILL WITH SNOWS SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MN. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY NOT DRY OUT. KTW THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW IN NORTHERN GA AND EASTERN TN. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VIS TO VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH EASTWARD EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND IFR THIS EVENING.
SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW'S EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL HELP TO FINALLY BREAK OUR CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER PATTERN LATE TONIGHT UP NORTH AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
STILL HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WITH LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL US TODAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NEB/SOUTHERN SD. AN 850MB COLD AIR POCKET WAS NOTED FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD ID/WA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW. CWA WILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY TO BELLEVUE TO RED OAK AND WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE NEB/SD BORDER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OPEN.
CDFNT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR THE KLFT/KARA TAF SITES THEN SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LAFAYETTE IS CURRENTLY HAVING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY.
The frozen ground and entrenched inversions has set up the potential for freezing rain with the next approaching system. Precipitation is expected to be light with this system, however there is the possibility of warmer air overrunning the cold pools creating a light freezing rain/drizzle. The amount of warm air and resultant liquid precipitation remains uncertain, though right now, northwestern Montana has the highest likelihood of seeing this outcome. The most probable scenario will be widespread light snow, with isolated pockets of freezing rain.
THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO WRAP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA. UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS IMPACTING CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1100 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND HOURLY GUIDANCE. FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
103 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT GLACIAL SPEED. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
131 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKEND. AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HANGING IT UP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.