Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Persistent upper ridge over the SW US and Central Plains will strengthen the next few days as the center shifts east. Morning lows will remain elevated due to the high dewpts in the 60s and abundant cloud cover. Will have good chance of storms next few days west of the Pecos River especially over the higher elevations with pops going through the extended.
An upper level trough sweeping west to east along the US-Canadian border this morning has already begun to dampen the ridge and usher in a cooler, drier airmass across much of southeast Oregon. Temperatures will reach into the low 90s across the lower valleys for both Sunday and Monday.
Mid level clouds are beginning to increase from the north as the first surge of tropical moisture moves down through the Ranchlands around the periphery of the inverted trough as it shifts westwards across the coastal waters. /issued 352 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Isolated convection is moving south across the Northeastern Ranchlands and Gulf Waters early this morning as the approaching inverted trough moves into the region. 0" or even a smidge higher for the Lower RGV by this afternoon. It will generally be in the lower to upper 90s along the coast to the Mid Valley.
140 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 High pressure brings comfortable, dry weather the balance of the weekend.
618 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 An slowly approaching cold front will stall over the area into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. Latest SPC HRRR showing the highest pops towards late afternoon. The main front will weaken and wash out across the forecast area on Monday, although a weak lee-side trough should still remain. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s, and highs on Monday in the upper 80s.
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Butte, MT area and Lemhi county, ID late this morning and afternoon as the dry cold front pushes southeast.
340 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 The upper low pressure that has persisted along the Colorado front range the past day or two and its associated batch of rather moist air is forecast to drift slowly northeast into extreme southwest Nebraska by days end continuing northeast into central Nebraska overnight. For Monday the low lifts a bit faster northeast toward South Dakota.
Current temperatures at this hour are in the lower 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest. The cold front that was over the northern areas yesterday has moved just south of the Tennessee border. Upper trough that has settled over the eastern and southeast states will continue. To the west a ridge of high pressure over the central states will begin to edge a little farther east by Monday. Temperatures will stay warm today upper 80s to near 90 and slightly cooler tonight across the northern sections like this morning as the drier air mass lingers.
656 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind.
For this part of the forecast area lift from the closed low overhead will persist through the night, which should result in continued rain activity. Mid level upper low continues to linger over eastern Colorado, with deep plume of moisture overriding our CWA.
Meanwhile warmer and drier air aloft on the north side will cap convection again. Temperatures will be warmer today, though our forecast is warmer than guidance and what the forecast soundings would support. Trimmed today's highs back slightly but kept them warmer than guidance given the sunshine and the fact that the models have too much influence from the convection to the southeast. A broad ridge stretching across the southern U. The ridge will be centered over the Colorado and the Desert Southwest early in the week.
Region of low pressure is sliding eastward through British Columbia and Alberta and will continue on this eastward trajectory today, acting to suppress the persistent ridge of high pressure farther to our south.
359 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A closed upper low over eastern Colorado and western Kansas will lift northeast into the central Plains states tonight weakening into an open wave as it heads towards the upper Midwest.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ WV imagery shows the inverted upper trough remains over Chihuahua, nosing NE into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The inverted trough is forecast to move slowly west over the next few days, and trying to nose up into the SW CONUS, shifting the upper ridge to north of the Arklatex by 12Z Tue. Hi PWATs are also forecast further west near the inverted trough. Increased moisture and the ridge centered well north will allow temperatures each day to stay right around normal.
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Another short-term forecast is largely governed by the sub- tropical ridge aloft. However, there is a closed low meandering through this ridge, heading toward our area, as models have been predicting, and eventually becoming an opening wave. Compared to yesterday, it appears that the timing of this low is about 6 hours slower than it was yesterday, and the ECMWF is even slower than that.
347 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 At 08z, radar indicated a subtropical upper level low near Goodland KS. Heavy convection fired south of the upper low this evening across southeast Colo. The models lift the upper low into Swrn Neb tonight and ambient precipitable water increases to over 1.
328 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 An slowly approaching cold front will stall over the area into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. Latest SPC HRRR showing the highest pops towards late afternoon. The main front will weaken and wash out across the forecast area on Monday, although a weak lee-side trough should still remain. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s, and highs on Monday in the upper 80s.
Precip chances will linger across western Kansas today as short range models indicate the weak upper level low across eastern Colorado lifting slowly northeast into Nebraska during the period. Little change to the general air mass and increased cloud cover will keep highs from climbing out of the mid to upper 80s(F) across west central Kansas to highs still possibly reaching the lower 90s(F) further south and east. Expect lows down into the 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) tonight. The frontal system that is south of us today will have moved north as a warm front by Monday into northern Kansas.
155 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak trough of low pressure dissipates across the area overnight. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
604 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually settle south from Canada and stall over northern New England tonight before returning north on Monday.
Still a shift from a more northwesterly flow pattern with embedded waves to broad ridging aloft expanding over much of the southern two thirds of the country. The slightly cooler air and associated cloud cover may keep Monday's high temps in the low to mid 80s, with a northeasterly component to the winds. but the cooler air will not stay in place too long before the broadening area of the upper ridge eventually results in plenty of warm air from the SW shifting over the Miss River Basin and into the Midwest. The ECMWF and the GFS are a still conflicted as to the strength and northern extent of the ridging aloft as a series of quick waves top the ridge. which will result in heat indices back into the low 100s. revolves around a cold front dropping into the region later today.
A colder airmass will settle into the area in its wake as strong high pressure pushes into the Great Lakes during the week.
Sfc obs trends showing lows around the Nashville Metropolitan Area may be slightly warmer than previously anticipated. Looks like there could be some accumulations across the Upper Cumberland Region, approaching up to around one half inch across the higher elevations of the northern portions of the Upper Cumberland Region during the evening hours. With main upper level trough passage not expected across region until after 25/00Z. Initial light N sfc winds are expected, but as high pressure influences become more sly based, a switch to SW to W direction is anticipated.
Temperatures have dropped into the lower 30s to near 40 degrees under these conditions. A trough axis is passing through the plains and is bringing a Christmas Eve snow to the Central Plains and Midwest today. For us, this trough axis will send a dry frontal passage into the area late this morning and early this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to fall to or below freezing for the Hill Country and locations north of a San Marcos to La Grange line.
1101 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 /06Z TAFS/ Primary concerns for this TAF period is the low level wind shear across KABI tonight. Light south to southwest winds will turn northerly with a passing cold front. /issued 217 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Temperatures have rebounded nicely today after a cool start with most of west central Texas getting down to less than freezing this morning. This will drive a strong cold front through the area during the day tomorrow. No precipitation is expected with the cold front as it moves through, but we may see some low clouds along and behind the front for an hour or two, mainly in the Big Country. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow than what we see this afternoon.
1114 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Tranquil early winter night on tap as broad North American upper trough continues to establish itself. With weaker short wave trough dropping south, associated front will be working closer and closer. Main arctic cold front will move through the area on Christmas eve.
Fog will be possible over west central and southwest Florida again tonight and into Monday morning, but an approaching cold front will clear out fog from north to south through the night. Lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. High pressure will continue across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
359 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Sfc ridging across central and southern LA has resulted in light and variable /and at times calm/ wind conditions early this morning. The cooler airmass ushered in by the cold front will keep temps below normal today, and clear skies coupled with light winds will allow for excellent radiational cooling and thus overnight temps dropping to below the freezing mark. Fog should be hard-pressed to develop tonight given the cooler and drier airmass in place. Below seasonal avg temps will persist tomorrow with the cooler airmass in place.
314 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Synopsis and near term (early this morning): The synoptic pattern this morning is characterized by a low amplitude longwave trough in the middle and upper atmosphere over the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extends from off the New England Coast to the North Carolina Outer Banks, across Georgia and into the central Gulf. Short Term (today through Christmas Day): After patchy morning fog dissipates, should be another very nice day with high pressure and a dry air mass remaining in place. Highs will be a bit cooler Monday over the Lake Okeechobee region behind the weakening front.
Total accumulations of a trace to under two inches expected with the higher amounts generally from Benkelman to Hill City and points north. The pressure gradient between incoming high pressure and low pressure to our south will create breezy to perhaps windy conditions generally along and west of the CO/KS border through early Sunday morning. High temperatures should reach the low 30s for much of the area. The central CONUS will be under fast northwest flow between a trough over eastern Canada and a ridge near southern California.
Digging trough aloft advancing from the mid Mississippi Valley and rapid cyclogenesis moving northeastward from the southern Appalachians brings the next round of precipitation after a brief reprieve during the first half of today. Have added mixed precipitation on the front end after 20Z for the mountains given the above freezing air off the surface, but no freezing rain in place. Cold air spills in rapidly in the wake of the newly formed cold front, thus beginning a rather chilly period that will persist through the entire 7 days. A strong upper trough, and its sfc reflection will move across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Have generally 1-2" along and north of US50 across the lowlands and into the central mountains.
The ridge of high pressure over the southeastern half of SD early this afternoon will slowly exit the weather picture as a trough of low pressure currently just north of the U. Models do differ on just how cold it will be with the GFS/MEX guidance considerably cooler than the ECMWF.
Winds are expected to remain light during that time, but as a low pressure system starts to intensify over the central Appalachians, winds will increase to around 15 kts and become gusty late in the afternoon.
Extensive collaboration yields the SPS as the best vehicle to highlight light dusting of accums/mainly grassy areas as ground and air temps remain above freezing and the pcpn falls during the warmest part of the day. How much accumulates is more tricky, given above freezing temps of both air/ground, but do believe some saturation down to drier dew points will assist snow reaching the ground.
202 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 A cold front will move offshore early today. Cold high pressure will build in from the north.
147 AM PST Sun Dec 24 2017 Abundant mid and high clouds and periods of gusty winds in the high Sierra are expected today. While a few weak passing systems may bring light rain and snow near the Oregon border, no big Pacific storms are on the horizon through the end of 2017 as a high pressure ridge remains parked off the West Coast. This wave will increase wind gusts across the Sierra ridges again this afternoon with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible through the evening. Fuentes The flat ridging will continue for the remainder of the week with abundant mid and high clouds at times.
402 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 High pressure, which has controlled the local regime over this past week will finally break due to a broad upr wave migrating east of the MS valley over the eastern Conus. Psg of the front will be followed by a relatively brief cooldown as a rather shallow intrusion of cooler air, which will be in the process of spreading Swd through the region early Christmas morning.
A strengthening easterly gradient across KPUW and KLWS is expected to keep the low clouds at bay at KPUW and clear out KLWS by mid morning. This shift may keep the low clouds advecting northward this evening away from KGEG.
116 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 A cold front will approach the region tonight and will move through the region Sunday. High pressure will then build into the region and will prevail into midweek. Elsewhere away from the coast, despite clouds/showers ahead of an approaching cold front expect another day of above-normal high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s, highest near the Altamaha River. Also, the cold front will produce scattered to numerous showers across the area.
346 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Cold front, currently located near Interstate 44, will sweep south through southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by noon with gusty north winds behind the front. Patchy freezing drizzle will be possible through mid morning, which could create a few slick spots mainly north of Highway 412 through mid morning.
1221 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Cooler air behind a cold front tonight and Sunday. Strong upper level trough reinforces cold air for Christmas eve/Christmas, with a quick dose of snow. Moderate to heavy rainfall is pulling out of the region with cold front pressing through. Tomorrow will be cooler with mostly quiet conditions early, then upper trough approaches tomorrow afternoon with rain and snow showers developing. A strong upper trough, and its sfc reflection will move across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Have generally 1-2" along and north of US50 across the lowlands and into the central mountains.
Short range models suggest weak H7 frontogentic banding developing across portions of central Kansas late tonight behind a departing cold front pushing southward into Oklahoma. A reinforcement of colder air spreading southward into western Kansas behind yet another cold front will send temperatures back down into the teens(F) for lows tonight.
318 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Low pressure over Hudson Bay will remain quite predominant in the NAmer weather pattern. High amplitude ridging from California all the way to Santaland at 90N is noted. A disturbance in the mean flow is passing to our north today which is driving a cold front through the region this morning.
VFR conditions can be anticipated for all terminals through this cycle as high pressure begins to build into the region. As a cold front moves closer we may see some high clouds move over the region and a slight uptick in winds, however, overall TAF wx variables should stay rather benign. The ridge spreads east Sunday with very light winds, continued dry conditions and warming temperatures.
335 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 A cold front is slowly sagging south across the forecast area this morning, accompanied by increased cloud cover and snow showers. Aloft, we have an east-west oriented baroclinic zone at 850mb, draped across northern Minnesota, that is along the southern flanks of a large upper level trough over Hudson Bay.
1018 PM MST Sat Dec 23 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across much of the CONUS thanks to a stationary deep Hudson Bay low.
A few locations could see some light freezing drizzle near the KS/OK border for late tonight.
We have extended the inherited Winter Storm Warning eastward thru TOR/BFF and Bridgeport. Breezy to windy around the mtns as well as falling pressures over the high plains sharpen the gradient. Quick look at models showing another period of mainly light snows over parts of the CWA Monday as another disturbance passes by and the arctic front holds banked up against the higher terrain.
Light and variable winds are expected for rest of tonight as the weak high pressure ridge will remain along the coast. Winds will become light southwest to west on Sunday in advance of the next cold front. The cold front is expected to move into South Texas during the afternoon with north winds increasing and becoming north-northeast and gusty during the evening.
A cold front will make its way south through the southeast plains tonight. MOS guidance has been showing some strong winds behind the cold front and we currently have 40-45 mph winds in the forecast. Snow will develop along the Continental Divide Sun evening and spill over to the remainder of the higher terrain overnight, with the focus area being the central mts. Look for min temps Christmas Eve to fall into the teens to lower 20s for most areas, then the brisk nw flow aloft will help boost aftn readings on Christmas into the mid 40s to lower 50s for the plains, and 40s for the high valleys. A cold front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide Monday aftn, but the true effects of the front are not anticipated until the overnight hours.
However, a weaker short wave in the low to mid levels also sweeps through southern WI.
1207 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Crossing low pressure is expected to generate snow showers for the region by tonight, and into Christmas morning. That track will warm advect over eastern zones with temperature again forecast above freezing, with dry and warm advection in the mid levels limiting snow accumulation potential elsewhere. Possible problems are reserved for the tonight period as deepening low pressure digs toward NY state and pulls a cold front across the region. Snow showers are thus expected to have better accumulation potential with blowing snow in the gusts, especially over the I 80 as per upsloping flow off the Lakes, and with the terrain enhancement via the higher ridges.
This will strengthen the W-SW flow across our area in the 21-00Z time frame, bringing strong cold advection and steepening lapse rates under the upper trough axis.
337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Currently we have westerly winds across the region, keeping overnight temperatures much warmer than what we saw yesterday morning. Winds will begin to shift to the north/northeast later this morning as the next cold front moves through.
Otherwise, light winds tonight to become northwest at 15 knots and gusty on Sunday as high pressure rebuilds across the region.
Ceilings will lower overnight in the wake of a cold front moving south of the gulf coast, reaching the IFR to LIFR categories (400 to 600 feet) by 24. A line of deeper moisture with light rainshowers embedded continues to move east across eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon progged to shift east of the forecast area later this evening as a cold front moves south and east of the area late this afternoon through early tonight. Aloft main upper trof will continue over much the eastern conus through Sun afternoon with another embedded short wave moving from the central plains to the Tennessee/Ohio River valleys late this evening through Sun afternoon, with little to no affect further southward along the northern gulf coast through Sun afternoon.
A weak cold front slides south across northern Minnesota today bringing another round of clouds and light snow today into this evening for parts of northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy overnight as the cold front slows down, though as it crosses the international border from the north tonight there may be clearing skies for parts of far northern Minnesota. High pressure builds in from the northern Plains east into the Upper Midwest on Sunday leading to partly sunny skies. A weak low pressure system is forecast to cut across central/southern portions of Minnesota into Wisconsin through the evening. An area of light snow will occur as a result of the low and Arctic Front, mainly south of US Highway 2 in Minnesota and over much of northwest Wisconsin Sunday evening.
Lows will drop below zero where skies are clear and winds nearly calm, but about ten degrees warmer otherwise. A cold front will move slowly south into northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon, while the rest of the area has some middle or high clouds.
Worthy to note, latest model guidance does support some areas of light valley freezing fog, especially in and around deeper valleys of Meagher and Broadwater Counties. Winds decrease on Sunday as a low level cold front pushes through with continued cold temps.
High pressure builds into the region later tonight and especially on Sunday. The dry weather will be short lived as a low pressure system moves into the region and snow overspreads the region early Christmas morning and continues through much of Christmas Day.
423 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 An oblong mean layer ridge stretches from the Yucatan Peninsula northeast across the Bahamas. Deep cyclonic flow covers most of the continental United States, and yet the southern half of the Florida Peninsula remains bathed in a weak ridge axis. A nearly stationary cold front currently across the Florida Panhandle lies parallel to the thermal wind. At the surface, high pressure will spill southeast through the southern Plains. Northeast breezes will freshen along the southern flank of the high's gradient.
1037 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Low level wind shear will persist at all TAF sites through mid morning until a cold front moves through the region. This cold front will shift surface winds to the north-northeast and will be sustained around 18-24kt.
Light and variable winds overnight tonight will gradually strengthen and become S to SW ahead of a dry cold front that will pass through during the day tomorrow. High temperatures so far this afternoon range from the lower to mid 50s inland to the upper 50s at the coast. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected tomorrow ahead of the next cold front with a majority of the area (especially central and south) reaching the lower to mid 60s.