Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 An upper level trough was centered over eastern ND and northwestern MN with upper level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic region. Nocturnal convection was across parts of eastern Nebraska and Iowa early this morning, ahead of the upper level trough and associated cold front. A better chance of rain can be expected on Monday, especially in the afternoon, and particularly across southeast MO and southwest IL along and just ahead of the weakening cold front as it drops southward into central MO and southern IL. High temperatures will be cooler on Monday, mainly due to cloud cover, a better coverage of showers/storms, and weak cold air advection behind the cold front across northeast MO and west central IL.
With a little more sun than today, may be a degree or two warmer than today.
Other TS may develop INVOF of the dry line in NW SD, and INVOF of the Pine Ridge in SW-scentral SD. Upper ridging expected Tues, supporting the warmest day in the period with highs in the 80s/90s. Dry conds expected Tue with chances for storms returning Wed evening over NE WY as the next trough arrives. Cooler and unsettled flow develops toward the end of the work week, with increasing chances for showers and a few storms.
/Issued 340 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021/ A cold front from near TAD to just south of GLD is expected to stall out from near a DHT to GUY line by this afternoon. Model soundings show that the low levels become unstable by noon especially along and out in front of these features. On Monday, there is a weak short wave trough that moves south southeast across the southern Texas Panhandle in the afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely form late tonight as the low level jet increases and we see warm air advection across the forecast area. Temperatures will start to warm up as an upper level ridge moves into the the area.
The high pressure will slide east across the forecast area tonight, providing mostly clear skies, light winds, and seasonable low temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60. Net effect of this should keep the boundary layer cooler than the most aggressively mixed models indicate, with highs through the Missouri Valley possibly not climbing much above the mid-upper 70s.
313 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across central and southeast Illinois for the next couple of days as a cold front sinks southward into the region.
On Mon, westerly flow aloft will be over the area as a sfc lee trough intensifies along the front range. This will lead to warmer temperatures as highs reach the lower to mid 90's across nern CO.
Meanwhile ridging will start to build across the region come Monday night. That energy is expected to jog a bit more in a southerly fashion as ridge builds over the High Plains.
Meanwhile high pressure off the eastern seaboard builds across FL and over the Gulf tonight and Mon. This will allow the high surf advisory to expire. Hurricane Ida moves out of the Gulf tonight as high pressure builds in from the Atlantic. The high pressure then slowly settles south with an axis reaching south FL by mid and late week.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over northern Wyoming into Montana, with low pushing over Ontario, keeping a west to northwest breeze over much of our area. Upper level analysis places trough sliding into the Great Lakes region, with rather zonal flow to our west.
535 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 What a welcome change as passing upper trough is finally driving frontal boundary through the area scouring out moisture and ending heavy rain threat. Cooler and drier air advecting in with west winds which should gradually diminish tonight leading to a quiet night overall. West to northwest upper flow remains in place to start the new week as ridging starts to occur over north central CONUS.
Aside from the smoke our Idaho zones will be sunny and very warm again Monday while Oregon zones begin to cool down as a weakening Gulf of Alaska upper trough comes inland.
645 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable conditions for the first half of the week. High pressure was observed over the Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure located over Ontario just north of Lake Superior. Additionally, a few showers were seen on radar across the Minnesota Arrowhead in the cyclonic flow regime on the backside of the low pressure over Ontario. This low will lift northeast tonight as the high expands and builds northeast.
KGUY and KAMA have the highest chances of impacts with storms in the vicinity. Watching a cold front that has just about stalled near Dalhart as temperatures behind the front has remained in the 70s throughout the day in the far northwestern Panhandles. A residual shower or storm is possible for the southern TX Panhandle on the periphery of ridge trying to build in from the west.
Monday will bring a similar scenario with boundary interactions in play and northern Missouri being a bit cooler than areas along and south of I-70.
Steady tropical storm force winds/wind gusts have been occurring across the the Lower Atchafalaya, and these are going to continue and spread farther north across the tropical storm warned area tonight as Ida continues tracking northward. In Ida's wake, a trof axis is progged be left behind as the flow aloft begins to amplify over the CONUS, with a trof digging into the ERN CONUS and a ridge building over the Rockies. This trof axis and associated deeper MSTR pool will keep elevated rain chances in the forecast for areas along/S of I-10 into the coastal waters TUE into WED. Toward the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper trof is progged to depart to the east while the upper ridge expands east and amplifies, covering much of the Central CONUS.
408 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable conditions for the first half of the week. High pressure was observed over the Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure located over Ontario just north of Lake Superior. Additionally, a few showers were seen on radar across the Minnesota Arrowhead in the cyclonic flow regime on the backside of the low pressure over Ontario. This low will lift northeast tonight as the high expands and builds northeast.
751 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across central and southeast Illinois for the next couple of days as a cold front sinks southward into the region.
848 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 (Issued 850 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021) Drier, more stable conditions continue to spread across southern Wisconsin as northwest breezes have dropped surface dewpoints into the lower 60s. Conditions will remain dry ahead of the main cold front which can be see in visible satellite imagery working its way across the western half of the CWA. Clear skies and post cold front conditions will allow for temps to fall into the mid to upper 50s inland with areas near and along the lake front staying a bit warmer in the low 60s.
A trend toward cooler and less humid conditions can then be expected. No big changes to previous forecast and have maintained chance PoPs into the overnight across the south as low level front will slow in response to northeastward ejection of primary upper level trough across Upper Great Lakes/Ontario. A moist/unstable environment and negligible capping under subtle height falls will support at least widely scattered convection along a broad pre-frontal trough axis this aftn-early eve, with additional convection (greater coverage) expected along the primary cold front this evening into the early overnight north to south.
545 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across central and southeast Illinois for the next couple of days as a cold front sinks southward into the region.
These will dissipate, and while normally I'd be calling for patchy fog tonight, I think the high cloud cover from Ida will keep most of it at bay.
1029 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Currently - Surface through lower level ridging centered over the southeastern Atlantic states extends southwards through our area and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sean. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. This is especially as the ridge is able to expand further westward behind Hurricane Ida, which made landfall along the Louisiana Coast this afternoon.
Much more comfortable conditions tonight as dew points drop and min temps will be cooler behind today's cold frontal passage. Monday, increasingly confluent flow aloft over the area ahead of weak ridging building into the Northern Plains should result in dry conditions. Lingering somewhat moist dew points in the mid 50s and cooler 850 mb temps moving in to the area could result in the formation of stratocu, but it looks too dry in the low-levels based on fcst soundings to expect any pcpn. 850 mb temps of 9-10C should yield max temps ranging from the lower 70s north to mid 70s south under a nw flow.
Web cameras and buoy data indicate that long period swells are reaching the lower Texas coast this afternoon. Have issued a rip current statement for the rest of the afternoon into tonight for the high risk of rip currents. Also, a high surf advisory may be needed later tonight into Monday morning for the lower Texas coast. A coastal flood statement has been issued for the lower Texas coast from late this evening through 7 AM Monday morning.
Meanwhile ridging will start to build across the region come Monday night. That energy is expected to jog a bit more in a southerly fashion as ridging builds over the High Plains.
214 PM PDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Hot and very dry today and Monday turning cooler through the rest of the week. A brief period of critical fire weather conditions is expected late this afternoon over ridgetops, as trough forms off the Coast. Wind gusts up to 20 mph has been observed so far across the high Sierra and southern Cascades this afternoon. Ensembles and cluster analysis indicate that an upper trough will gradually deepen into mid-week. The deepening trough will bring increasing fire weather concerns to the northern Sierra and southern Cascades early to mid-week.
GOES16 Night FOG product now is showing a widespread area of stratus layer cloud north of the surface stationary front, with a corridor of scattered stratus expanding southward through the highway 183 corridor toward Edwards/Pawnee counties. Beyond sunrise, the air should warm efficiently and be warmer than Sunday, but still pleasant and near climatology in the upper 80s (normal high today at Dodge City is 89). Tonight an MCS is forecast to develop along he warm front in Nebraska and be driven southward into north central and northeast Kansas after midnight.
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 A pleasant stretch of weather gets underway today and pretty much lasts through the week with cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. These welcome changes are set in motion by the cold front exiting Lower MI leading up to sunrise. This leads surface Td down into the 50s during the afternoon as high temperatures reach the lower to mid 80s.
This lift is sandwiched in between a elongated/sheared zone of vorticity in northern MO/central IL, a deformation zone over southwest MO/south central IL, and north of shear axis of a mid-upper level ridge stretching from Greenville KY to Greenville MO.
320 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Surface and upper low near James Bay will continue lifting northeastward today as broad ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes in its wake. except warmer near the Lake shores.
1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable conditions for the first half of the week. High pressure was observed over the Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure located over Ontario just north of Lake Superior. Additionally, a few showers were seen on radar across the Minnesota Arrowhead in the cyclonic flow regime on the backside of the low pressure over Ontario. This low will lift northeast tonight as the high expands and builds northeast.
There's a secondary cold front in northern Ontario. In any case, the area will be rather small, with the majority of the region being dry today, and tonight, as high pressure builds into the region. High impact weather potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: A temporary omega block looks to set up through midweek with a cut-off low centered over Quebec followed by ridging through the Plains and another cut-off over British Columbia.
Through the night, it should become more diffuse with low-level flow becoming more influenced by modest lee troughing, and thus more uniformly east- southeasterly with time.
/issued 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021/ Mainly VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the forecast period with the exception of MVFR ceilings possible across MLU beginning late 30/09Z as tropical cyclone Ida moves through western Mississippi.
Watching a cold front that has just about stalled near Dalhart as temperatures behind the front has remained in the 70s throughout the day in the far northwestern Panhandles. A residual shower or storm is possible for the southern TX Panhandle on the periphery of ridge trying to build in from the west.
1152 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across central and southeast Illinois for the next couple of days as a cold front sinks southward into the region.
204 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Weak upper ridging over the area will result in a very warm and dry day over our CWA with highs in the 80s.
330 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine -Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week -Next chance of rain (low) is over the weekend --Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week-- The cold front has passed through and surface ridging will impact the region most of this week.
Ridging over the Carolinas will drift southward into the offshore waters east of the area Today. The dry airmass associated with the ridge will spread further west into the inland areas. Hot afternoons expected to start today, with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and to near 90 along the coast.
There is some evidence of this trough on the low level vorticity analyses from CIMSS. Overall, a quiet August morning across the Florida Keys with gentle east to southeast breezes, mostly clear skies, only a few showers and thunderstorms across the distant Straits of Florida, and temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
429 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Surface and upper low near James Bay will continue lifting northeastward today as broad ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes in its wake. except warmer near the Lake shores.
1154 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021 With convection now well off to the southeast, generally expect VFR conditions outside a period of minor MVFR fog late tonight as low level moisture pools around a passing cold front to some extent. The deep 925-600mb cold front is forecasted to sag southward and clear the Michigan/Ohio state line between 15-18Z Monday. A big drop in surface dewpoints are expected with readings lowering down into the low 60s areawide. Heat indices will reside in the lower to mid 80s which will be some 10 to 15 degrees lower than recent days. 0 kft agl but differential cold advection in the low levels will lead to very stable conditions.
Farther north, cooler and drier air seeps in and keeps us in the upper 70s to low 80s today through the work week with just a mix of sun and clouds. The cold front that helped to force the showers and storms on Sunday stalls out near our southern tier or 2 tiers of counties. On the northern side of the boundary, drier and slightly cooler air will be able to seep in, with dew points back into the 60s and temperatures only into low to mid 80s under a mix of sun and clouds. Drainage of cool air occurs tonight allowing cooler lows into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 71 78 69 80 / 40 50 90 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 81 69 79 / 30 30 90 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 78 69 78 / 40 40 90 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 69 83 67 76 / 20 20 70 80 80.
A 500hPa anticyclone will set-up just south of the Four Corners region for tomorrow afternoon. The only place that may see an isolated shower and thunderstorm is over the eastern San Juan Mountains in response to some CVA embedded in the anticyclone.
Only changes made to the forecast were to account for the lower clouds and patchy fog potential in the northeast corner tomorrow morning. Model guidance is consistent in showing the lower clouds/fog to lift by noon. On Mon, westerly flow aloft will be over the area as a sfc lee trough intensifies along the front range. This will lead to warmer temperatures as highs reach the lower to mid 90's across nern CO.
Low pressure descending into the region will bring a trend towards cooler and less dry conditions through the upcoming week. Today was a transition day in terms of the weather pattern, as flanking high pressure waned and was replaced by deepening low pressure trough originating from upper British Columbia. Nearly all locations exhibited a shift towards significantly cooler, less dry weather in response to this transition, however the most extreme interior locations lingered in the warmer, drier air left from the retreating heat dome. Meanwhile, interior locations farther south than the extent of the descending trough such as Parkfield and Pinnacles National Park were 106-107F today, up slightly over yesterday. Looking ahead, a continued cooling and moistening trend coupled with a deeper marine layer and continued onshore flow is anticipated as the BC trough digs deeper into California from the north.
219 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Smoke and haze set to return across eastern Idaho today as upper- level flow becomes southwesterly as an upper-level trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest.
1105 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 What a welcome change as passing upper trough is finally driving frontal boundary through the area scouring out moisture and ending heavy rain threat. Cooler and drier air advecting in with west winds which should gradually diminish tonight leading to a quiet night overall. West to northwest upper flow remains in place to start the new week as ridging starts to occur over north central CONUS.
Weak high pressure was located just off of the southeast U. Conditions will remain warm and humid today, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior, and upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Weak high pressure lies just north of the local coastal waters.
This lift is sandwiched in between a elongated/sheared zone of vorticity in northern MO/central IL, a deformation zone over southwest MO/south central IL, and north of shear axis of a mid-upper level ridge stretching from Greenville KY to Greenville MO. Ridging behind the remnants of Ida will dominate the remainder of the week and into next Monday.
High pressure builds back into the region today as Ida lifts northward through the southeast states. Will continue the high risk of rip currents through today and tonight as long period swells will continue to push into the region.
08z WV satellite reveals a largely zonal flow pattern over the northern half of the CONUS with a weak upper trough from NE KS to NM.
Tropical cyclone Nora to our distant south has officially eroded per the latest NHC guidance, running aground choking off its crucial source of warm ocean waters. The HRRR kicks things off on the mountains around noon, with storms drifting toward the west to northwest as the high center sits just south of the Four Corners region.
Under a strengthening ridge, warm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday.
Northeast Wisconsin will remain on the southern edges of the ridge; however, this will keep conditions precipitation-free under fairly light flow. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the 70s with overnight lows dropping into 40s north-central to the low and mid 50s elsewhere.
Low pressure begins a cooling trend today with increasing humidity for the region.
As a dry cold front enters from the west on Tuesday, conditions will become much windier through the afternoon and evening hours. Following the dry cold front, the Northern Rockies will remain under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That being said, precipitation will remain scarce during this time as moisture associated with the center of the Low will stay far north of the Canadian border.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening in eastern Colorado. GOES16 Night FOG product now is showing a widespread area of stratus layer cloud north of the surface stationary front, with a corridor of scattered stratus expanding southward through the highway 183 corridor toward Edwards/Pawnee counties.
809 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Low ceilings and numerous showers and possibly embedded storms will continue across most of the TAFs this morning as Tropical Cyclone Ida continues to slowly pull away to the north.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 638 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Low ceilings and numerous showers and possibly embedded storms will continue across most of the TAFs this morning as Tropical Cyclone Ida continues to slowly pull away to the north.
A warm front will arc east-southeast from the weak low across the Sandhills into central Nebraska. As low-level moisture returns northward into the area though the day, it will pool near the warm front later this afternoon and evening with surface dew points nearing 70F. A corridor of high surface based CAPE and strong shear will coincide near the warm front by late afternoon into this evening. This area will be on the nose of steep low-level lapse rates nosing northward into the area south of the warm front. This will be most true on the immediate cool side of the warm front where backed low-level flow will be supportive of a tornado threat. Mid-week upper level high pressure builds across the Southern Plains with a deep trough developing across western Canada into the northern Rockies.
Farther north, cooler and drier air seeps in and keeps us in the upper 70s to low 80s today through the work week with just a mix of sun and clouds.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Mostly upper ridging is over the southern half of the country with Hurricane Ida over Louisiana and Mississippi. The upper ridge will build over Texas and New Mexico on Tuesday.
603 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Lingering near-surface moisture contributes to pockets of low stratus and fog this morning as a cold front is slow to depart to the east. A pleasant stretch of weather gets underway today and pretty much lasts through the week with cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. These welcome changes are set in motion by the cold front exiting Lower MI leading up to sunrise. This leads surface Td down into the 50s during the afternoon as high temperatures reach the lower to mid 80s. The cooler air over the warm lake water also generates patchy stratocu for partly cloudy sky heading into Tuesday morning. An eastward track across the mid Appalachians is ensured by upper level long wave amplification driven primarily by the trough digging into the Pacific NW and Canadian Rockies.
ALPW imagery suggests the higher sfc-850mb moisture content is still to our south but this will begin to surge northward this afternoon and tonight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 71 78 69 81 / 40 80 100 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 81 69 80 / 30 60 90 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 79 69 79 / 40 60 90 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 83 67 77 / 30 30 70 90 90 NC.
Early this morning, nearly zonal flow was noted at the mid to upper levels, with a hint of subtle ridging near the Montana border. Warm air advection and moisture will be on the increase through the day, leading to a slightly warmer day than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s across the northeast to the mid 80s southwest. The one exception will be the aforementioned weak wave that will move through aloft (bringing with it modest height falls and cooler temperatures aloft, leading to steep mid level lapse rates southwest). An upper level ridge axis amplifies on Tuesday overhead as a Pacific Northwest trough digs south and east.