Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Outside of this, high pressure north of the Great Lakes with ridging extending down to our area will gradually settle south, keeping dry and comfortable conditions in place, with seasonably cool nighttime temperatures. Favored locations along and west of the Fox Valley will likely dip into the lower 50s. Slightly cooler thermal profiles will yield highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and lower-mid 70s lakeside, with very low dew points for late August (lower-mid 50s). We should be able to shave a couple degrees off tonight's lows for Friday night's lows as high pressure center draws closer.
A narrow ribbon of moisture and possible showers/thunderstorms resides along the CO/KS border just ahead of an approaching upper trough. High temperatures generally in the low to upper 80s.
Behind this high pressure and an upper ridge build over the area bringing another mostly clear night. Lows will again dip into the low to mid 50s with a few of the cooler spots hitting the upper 40s. Highs on Friday end up very similar to today with values in the lower 70s.
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Early morning showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain continue as a result of a slowly progressing cold front, low level jet, right entrance region of the upper jet, and a very moisture airmass. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, topping out in the low to mid 80s. There is typical uncertainty with placement and amounts of rain, and also for driving features such as strength of the low level jet, but another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for more southern portions of the area.
A trough currently moving across parts of Idaho and Montana will continue east and south through the first half of the weekend.
To the east of there clouds should be minimal so temperatures will fall a little farther, especially over parts of southwest MN and northwest IA which will be under the influence on the high pressure a little more. Will shoot for lows in the lower 50s there and 60 to 65 along and west of the James River. Weak troughing spreads across the Northern Rockies tonight into Friday but is battling the ridge to the east. Friday night will see upper level troughing work onto the High Plains but will again struggle to press east into the drier and more stable air. Lows will be warmer with some increase in clouds and wind.
trough through Missouri this afternoon and into this evening. From the west and southwest, a minor trough will develop under the central and northern Plains mid-upper level ridge, where more zonal flow is impacting the southern half of the U.
Cooler and breezy today in the post frontal air mass. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Weak upper ridging will remain over the region today and tomorrow with several weak disturbances expected to wander overhead.
313 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 High pressure has slid off to the east of the region today, with a tightening pressure gradient aiding in breezy southeast winds over the western part of the CWA. Lows on Friday night will be in the lower to mid 60s.
354 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 As the high pressure area moves east across Ontario toinght and tomorrow, southeasterly winds will increase across the region.
915 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A weak trough builds in today, bringing cooling through Friday. High pressure builds back in this weekend, warming temperatures slightly. A weak trough of low pressure will move in today, bringing cooling through Friday and a deeper marine layer. For this weekend, high pressure builds into California, warming inland areas to slightly above average.
Light to gentle northeasterly winds will prevail this afternoon here on the west side of a low pressure trough over the central Bahamas. The trough will move into the eastern Straits on Friday and lift off to our north this weekend, bringing an incremental turn to gentle and occasionally moderate southerly breezes over the course of Friday and Friday night. No adverse effects on winds and seas are expected through this weekend and beyond over the Keys waters, stemming from the low pressure trough that NHC is monitoring over the Bahamas.
This boundary will be the focus for the heaviest rainfall overnight, with the highest totals likely to be along and just north of it.
GOES 16 water vapor imagery depicts troughing across much of the Ohio valley and into the central plains. Temperatures on Friday will likely be a degree or two cooler than today with increased cloud cover and precipitation. By Friday night, the trough will move out of the Great Lakes while at the surface, the front should be to the east of the forecast area.
Most areas topped out in the lower 80s -- a good 7-10 degrees below normal. In addition, excess cloud cover from this morning's MCV has kept the lower troposhere cool and stable.
In the wake of this front, high pressure will build in over the weekend. Surface observations indicate cold front is currently located over the far northern zones.
242 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, the pesky upper-level ridge continues to plague the southern Plains with hot weather. However, a few weaknesses in the ridge are allowing thunderstorms to develop across parts of the Big Country.
Upper air charts from 12Z this morning showed a thermal ridge at 850 mb and 700 mb extending from southern CA and AZ up into MT. There was a fairly strong trough at 500 mb extending from western Canada down into NV, with 12 hour height falls of up to 90 meters. The previously mentioned trough will be pushing eastward toward the Plains over the next few days.
High pressure to dominate the region through Friday night. Friday night lows should range a tad warmer as a more southerly wind is established. Highs Friday afternoon should warm trough the mid/upper 70s.
1135 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Another benign weather day is expected as Canadian high pressure dominates the region.
High pressure has slid off to the east of the region today, with a tightening pressure gradient aiding in breezy southeast winds over the western part of the CWA. Lows on Friday night will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Under mostly clear skies tonight, temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s with coastal areas remaining warm in the upper 70s.
A few high clouds have moved through the region today and are associated with the trough center that moved to the north of the region. Beginning tomorrow ridging will begin to spread back into the district. Ridging will mostly remain fully in place, however, there is a very slight possibility that a tropical system currently southwest of the California Baja over the Pacific and moving northward will affect parts of our area. Primarily in the form of high level clouds but could even see a thunderstorm or two over the higher elevations of the Sierra. Keep in mind that this is unlikely and the remnants of that tropical system will more likely affect northern parts of California as it gets pushed northeastward between the ridging to the southeast and a trough over the Pacific to the northwest.
Gusty conditions noted across much of the area today after a day with cooler temperatures.
348 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Plenty of clouds across the area this afternoon keeping temperatures a little cooler than seen recently. All the clouds are in response to an approaching trough from the west which is currently over central Utah. This trough also allowed some showers and thunderstorms to form with more coverage than originally anticipated. Tomorrow, the upper level portion of the trough will move through and similar to today and yesterday, models paint QPF and PoPs more so over the Front Range as opposed to our area. As the trough continues to move east out of Wyoming, it digs south as high pressure builds in across the southwest CONUS.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night we are looking at a weak frontal boundary moving through the area in association with the upper level trof. Cannot rule out a few severe storms develop as well as the low level shear increases across Nebraska. Most convection will remain north of the CWA with the passage of a upper level trough over MT and the Dakotas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight, as a cold front advances from west to east.
Plenty of clouds across the area this afternoon keeping temperatures a little cooler than seen recently. All the clouds are in response to an approaching trough from the west which is currently over central Utah. This trough also allowed some showers and thunderstorms to form with more coverage than originally anticipated. Tomorrow, the upper level portion of the trough will move through and similar to today and yesterday, models paint QPF and PoPs more so over the Front Range as opposed to our area. As the trough continues to move east out of Wyoming, it digs south as high pressure builds in across the southwest CONUS.
Sporadic rain and a few storms continue to bubble up across the Mid State this afternoon, with the highest rain totals so far staying north of I-40.
649 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 As the high pressure area moves east across Ontario tonight and tomorrow, southeasterly winds will increase across the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 72 88 / 50 60 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 69 86 / 60 60 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 86 68 86 / 50 60 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 82 65 81 / 60 70 50 40.
Nighttime lows in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s for some coastal locations. (modified previous) Increasing shower and storm coverage expected as an inverted trough of low pressure approaches the waters.
/issued 242 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, the pesky upper-level ridge continues to plague the southern Plains with hot weather. However, a few weaknesses in the ridge are allowing thunderstorms to develop across parts of the Big Country.
Canadian sfc ridging dumping down the upper Midwest will continue to provide a fair weather, lower humidity, and somewhat below normal temperature pattern into the weekend.
205 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A weak trough will bring cooling through Friday. High pressure builds back in this weekend, warming temperatures slightly. A weak trough of low pressure will bring cooling through Friday and a deeper marine layer. For this weekend, high pressure builds into California, warming inland areas to slightly above average.
746 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Weak upper level ridging and a relatively dry airmass limited the rain chances for much of the area today, although scattered showers and storms did move west through southwest Florida with more isolated convection developing farther north through the Tampa Bay area. Atlantic ridging will continue to extend across northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday, with light southeasterly winds turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze.
701 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through Friday.
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A cold front will continue to move south through the Ohio Valley this evening. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley Friday, bringing drier and cooler weather this weekend.
Remainder of area should see overnight lows in the low 50s to upper 40s. As the high pressure area moves east across Ontario tonight and tomorrow, southeasterly winds will increase across the region.
1036 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The low-level subtropical ridge centered just southeast of Bermuda reaches west across northern Florida. Nestled along the southern flank of the ridge, just out of reach of the 20 to 25 knots of WNW shear, is a broad area of low pressure pressing west away from Andros. Winds will be highly variable on Friday as the low pressure area slides northwest through southern Florida. From synopsis, a broad area of low pressure just west of Andros Island will move slowly northwestward tonight and cross the Florida Keys and South Florida Friday and Friday night.
The highest rain chances are expected to remain over the southern half of the CWA (roughly from I-10 to the coast) during the early part of the day.
235 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Cold front finally exits to the south today. High pressure with dry, cooler weather for the weekend. Much drier air at the surface, lower, and mid levels moves in with this wholesale airmass change once the wave aloft passes and high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Cooler and drier conditions will settle into the area late Friday night into Saturday.
256 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Quiet stretch of weather continues through the weekend, courtesy of broad low level ridging drifting through southern Ontario but firmly maintaining drier air in place across the area. Otherwise, temperatures remain comfortable with daytime highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s, while the typical cooler spots dip into the 40s.
316 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Easterly flow regime remains in place across the area today as Atlantic ridge is positioned north of the area. To the southeast, an inverted trough/tropical wave is moving towards the southern FL peninsula.
Ridging aloft will provide hot and mostly dry conditions again today while weak low pressure meanders to the south near se Fl and the northern Bahamas. High pressure will start to weaken this evening and overnight with an increasing easterly flow bringing a chance of coastal showers to Flagler/St.
The mid level and sfc ridging will slowly work eastward through tonight, but remain in firm control of nrn Michigan weather. Winds will remain light and northerly, keeping temperatures cooler than normal, with highs in the upper 60s to lower half of the 70s. The only clouds foreseen by this afternoon will be typical cumulus, with mostly clear conditions expected tonight and with temperatures dropping into through the 40s, with some of the typical cooler low lying areas sneaking into the upper 30s. Pattern synopsis/forecast: By early Saturday morning, upper-level heights are expected to be rebounding across the western Great Lakes before a ridge axis becomes centered overhead Saturday night.
Upper ridging is present in the Gulf and western Atlantic with southerly low-level flow toward the western FL Panhandle. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 90s.
Tonight Through Saturday An upper ridge will build over the Midwest tonight and Friday. A cold front in north Arkansas this afternoon will stall in central Arkansas Friday. Cooler temperatures are anticipated with the front, clouds, and rain in the area. Highs Friday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s, and Saturday around 80s north to the upper 80s in the south.
With the mid level ridge over the southern portions of the area, this will act to suppress convection with coverage at isolated across the area. Zonal flow aloft and ridging at the surface will prevail through the start of the weekend. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
Have opted to extend the Flood Watch for all except the northern tier of counties in OK through 18z, by which time the low level moisture transport should weaken enough for storms to decrease. Later today storms will develop over the high plains with some potential for these storms to eventually move into parts of the area late tonight or Saturday morning.
147 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through Friday. An approaching cold front will move into the region Saturday.
205 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Expect cooler and less humid weather to prevail across central Illinois into the weekend, as high pressure takes hold over the Great Lakes region. Below normal temperature pattern expected to continue most of the period, as the high over the Great Lakes and New England keeps the warmer weather shunted to the southwest.
At the same time, an upper-level ridge will steadily build eastward across the area today and the ridge axis will cross northeast WI Saturday. The main concern with this setup will be cooler overnight lows and the potential for some patchy ground fog to develop overnight into the early morning hours.
Forecast Confidence is high: High pressure will bring continued quiet weather to southern Wisconsin through Saturday. Given light winds at night under the high and enough clearing, there could be some fog in the typical susceptible locations, though primarily within the Wisconsin River valley.
Very modest 0-6km shear should limit the severe threat to very isolated across the southwest, otherwise a slowly moving h500 trough across eastern Montana this morning will move to the central Dakotas by Saturday morning. This slow moving trough will increase moisture across the northern plains, with precipitable water much above normal for this time of the year.
Backing up a bit to the big picture, an active northern stream continues in the upper levels with troughing in the northeast U. , weak ridging over the northern Plains, and another trough over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was situated over the lee of the Rockies, with high pressure over the Great Lakes region. This is keeping our area in upslope flow in the lower levels.
At the surface, a cold front will drift southward into the Tennessee Valley toward north Georgia today. The highest coverage will be in north Georgia in vicinity of the approaching surface front, though additional scattered activity will be possible elsewhere. Meanwhile, a weak surface "wedge" will build in from the northeast Saturday, bringing the beginnings of cooler easterly surface flow. Temperatures today will range from the mid-to-upper 80s in north Georgia where the highest convective coverage is anticipated to the mid 90s in central Georgia. A broad trough deepening over the Great Lakes this weekend still looks like it should push a frontal boundary into GA where it may stall in the vicinity of central GA on Saturday.
A broad area of low pressure near Andros Island early this morning, will move northwestward and over South Florida this evening before lifting north northeastward to offshore of the northeast Florida coast late Saturday.
Best chance for fog is across middle of forecast area where temperatures have radiated a bit cooler.
358 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Cooler, drier air is returning for the weekend.
Water vapor loop shows blocking ridge over the region with some pretty dry air over MN. Tomorrow, the surface pattern will not change too much with continued southeast winds, but the upper trough begins to move into the Plains. Upper level low pressure system slowly moves across southern Canada through the period.
The storms associated with the initial outflow have largely faded over the western South Plains, leaving slightly cooler temperatures and a MCV. Otherwise, the overnight outflow and lingering convective debris will suppress heating a bit early on, but temperatures should still make it into the lower to middle 90s. The bulk of the lift from the trough will be to our north, but the southern end of the MCS could clip our northern and northeastern zones (or even more of the CWA, if a couple of our more optimistic models are correct) as it develops into a modest southerly LLJ. However, coverage, if any, should be limited given large scale sinking on the subsident side of departing upper trough.
347 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, southerly flow into the forecast area today. An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday.
Breezy southwest winds this afternoon in response to a trough moving through the western U.
A stronger storm in south central Nebraska appears to be being enhanced by a modest weak upper wave under the mean upper ridge between an upper trough over the northern Rockies and another over eastern Canada. Highs today should again be in the lower to middle 80s. The Rockies wave enters the high Plains tonight and should bring another round of convection to western and perhaps central portions of the state.
A cold front extends from just north of Springfield (MO), to Cape Girardeau (MO), and eastward along the OH River. The cold front will move very slowly south across the CWA today and tonight, largely masked by convective outflow, eventually stalling south of TUP tomorrow. Rain chances continue overnight and the greatest chances will depend on where the cold front intersects with weak, southerly winds above the frontal zone.
On Saturday afternoon a dry, weak trough passage will result in slightly stronger winds north of Highway 50. The moisture transport will be highly dependent on how the ridge over the west evolves, with variations in the simulations for that time frame.
322 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, southerly flow into the forecast area today. An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday.
855 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A weak trough will bring cooling through Friday as the marine layer deepens, spreading low clouds and patchy fog into the valleys. High pressure builds back in this weekend, flattening the marine layer and bringing warmer days. For this weekend, high pressure builds into California, warming inland areas to slightly above average.
Remainder of area should see overnight lows in the low 50s to upper 40s. As the high pressure area moves east across Ontario tonight and tomorrow, southeasterly winds will increase across the region. An upper trough will sag south over western Canada Sat night and Sun.
The main impetus for this activity appears to be an upper trough moving thru the Southern Plains between the west and east coast ridges. Chances will taper off thru Sat night or so as the trough exits east.
531 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Quiet stretch of weather continues through the weekend, courtesy of broad low level ridging drifting through southern Ontario but firmly maintaining drier air in place across the area. Otherwise, temperatures remain comfortable with daytime highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s, while the typical cooler spots dip into the 40s.
Summertime sfc cold front bisecting cntrl KY early this morning will move into mid state during afternoon hrs today and push to around TN/AL border late tonight. Another summertime cold frontal passage is expected mid portion of next work week. Initial quasi zonal flow pattern aloft will persist across mid state region thru weekend before upper level troughing influences move across mid state region as Mon progresses. Upper level flow will become quasi zonal once again after this passage with possibly another upper level trough passage on Thu of next work week. Afternoon high temps will generally span the low to mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region thru Sun.
502 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The isolated convection currently across Oklahoma is expected to begin diminishing by mid morning as the low level jet driving it should be weakening. However, a short wave trough currently across the Central Plains will be moving further southward and initiating some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest POPs in place generally along and east of I-35. Heavy rainfall will also be possible as well, with the highest risk for some flooding across northern Oklahoma.
A weak area of low pressure along the southeast Florida coast is expected to drift north over the Florida peninsula through tonight with an area of deeper moisture associated with it spreading over most of the region. An inverted trough and weak area of low pressure will move northwest into the area over the next couple of days. /issued 316 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ Easterly flow regime remains in place across the area today as Atlantic ridge is positioned north of the area. To the southeast, an inverted trough/tropical wave is moving towards the southern FL peninsula.