Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With clouds moving in shortly after sunset, decent surface winds through the night and a rather warm start to the late afternoon, expect low temperatures tonight to be quite a bit warmer than last night, especially across central and northern Wisconsin. That said, cloud erosion will likely still be a fairly slow process for the low sun angle of December. In addition to the clouds, 925mb post-frontal temperatures will be quite a bit colder than they were for Wednesday, which will keep temperatures tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today. That said, highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s will still be around 5 degrees warmer than normal for early December.
252 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 An upper low over southern Quebec province will move off to the north today and Thursday, as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic from the Mississippi Valley.
High-res models continue to develop widespread fog in the wake of the stratus, for most areas east of the James River Valley, except in the higher elevations from the Coteau in east central SD to the Buffalo Ridge and points east in southwest MN. This pushes our south central SD counties to near 50F, while readings hold in the lower-mid 40s east of the James River Valley.
Freezing fog that many saw across the TN Valley this morning has since dissipated leaving plentiful sunshine in place. A wedge front remains off to our east this morning with high pressure stationed over the TN Valley. Temps are still chilly currently hovering around freezing, but they will gradually warm up towards 50 degrees by this afternoon with southwesterly flow in place aloft. Today will be warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal with seasonable values in the upper 50s. Moisture advection will continue to filter in aloft on Thursday ahead of an upper level trough disturbance, but believe we will stay dry through much of the daylight hours.
1129 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 An upper low over southern Quebec province will move off to the north today and Thursday, as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic from the Mississippi Valley.
However, closer to home winds coming off the southern mainland and moving over relatively cooler waters when compared to the warm Florida Straits. Cooler waters over Florida Bay, along with a developing thermal trough over the mainland is leading to a slackening of winds over Florida Bay.
959 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Freezing fog that many saw across the TN Valley this morning has since dissipated leaving plentiful sunshine in place. A wedge front remains off to our east this morning with high pressure stationed over the TN Valley. Temps are still chilly currently hovering around freezing, but they will gradually warm up towards 50 degrees by this afternoon with southwesterly flow in place aloft. Today will be warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal with seasonable values in the upper 50s. Moisture advection will continue to filter in aloft on Thursday ahead of an upper level trough disturbance, but believe we will stay dry through much of the daylight hours.
1128 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front is moving across West Central Texas early this morning as an upper low deepens over the northern Texas Panhandle. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Those clouds should stay through the night across the northern third of the forecast area, which will act as a blanket and keep overnight lows slightly warmer. We should see a rather large temperature gradient across West Central Texas by tomorrow morning, with lows in the lower 30s across the Big Country, but much cooler in the mid 20s for the cloud-free areas to the south.
127 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low centered over the Texas panhandle, with two distinct PV anomalies rotating around the low circulation, the northern most anomaly likely aiding in area of precipitation across the area. While not likely, could see a 1 or 2 hour window with patchy freezing drizzle as things wind down. Otherwise ridge over the Rockies will build over the rest of the period leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. With light winds, some fresh snowcover and clearing skies did push forecast towards coldest solutions tonight, with lows falling into the lower teens in the west.
1020 AM PST Wed Dec 2 2020 A weather disturbance will pass across the area today which will bring another round of breezy, north winds as well as cooler temperatures today and tomorrow.
However, closer to home winds coming off the southern mainland and moving over relatively cooler waters when compared to the warm Florida Straits. Meanwhile, another interesting weather phenomenon is occurring as gentle isentropic upglide is occurring in the 700 mb level south and southwest of the Lower Keys. Cooler waters over Florida Bay, along with a developing thermal trough over the mainland is leading to a slackening of winds over Florida Bay.
1207 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Dry conditions can be expected through Thursday with building high pressure.
This will be a bit tricky, since areas that saw no snow or snow that melts today would get a bit warmer than places like Lander, that saw more snow.
High pressure and benign weather will then persist through Thursday night. The 12z GEFS solution shifts the western ridge further west over the eastern Pacific Ocean toward Alaska. This pattern does not scream âbig winter storm potentialâ but it does favor cooler weather and potential clipper-type systems for mid-month. The CPCâs 8 to 14-day outlook reflects similar trends with cooler and drier weather favored for week 2.
Current temperatures are in the upper 30s into the lower 40s. Highs should reach into the lower to mid 50s thanks to the sunshine. We will start out dry today as upper ridging start to shift east. Rain chances will increase late tonight as a trough over the Rockies moves southeast and becomes a cut-off low over the Plains. The Mid-South will remain in the cooler sector limiting any instability. However, a developing LLJ will provide some lift allowing for Gulf moisture to pool northward over the cooler airmass. We do not anticipate any impacts at this time as upper air soundings indicate a good amount of dry air in the lower levels during this timeframe.
The main upper level cut off low is currently working its way across the Southern Plains and is expected to wander to the northeast before beginning to rejoin the main trof over the Great Lakes. While in this more northerly flow aloft, a quick perimeter wave slides south over the Midwest on the backside of the main upper level trof.
Another cold morning is expected ahead with much of the region approaching freezing. The southeasterly flow across the region will advect moisture back into the region as the area is briefly under the influence of a weak upper level ridge. This more mild airmass influencing the region will allow for a more mild day with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s across the region.
In the meantime, a high amplitude ridge has developed with its axis right over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s across the south and stall in the 50s and 60s elsewhere hampering the instability. Will also be expecting another band of storms to develop mid to late afternoon probably in the vicinity of Columbus to Madisonville and march eastward out ahead of or near the incoming cold front. Then expect winds to briefly relax before the cold front arrives and winds increase again though out of the north/northwest tonight.
Allowed the SPS for freezing fog to quietly expire. Expect plenty of sun today with afternoon highs in the lower 40s for the Plateau to the around 50 for the southwest along the river and AL/TN state lines.
An upper level low is moving across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and a cold front is mostly through our CWA. Winds behind the front are from the northwest bringing cooler, drier air. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s across the entire CWA with freezing temps in parts of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be cooler with highs generally in the 50s across the CWA. Freezing temperatures will spread farther east across the northern part of our CWA, but not into Austin.
Normally colder locations fell into the low and mid 30s with some areas of frost and even some brief freezing temps around the Villages as well as NE Lake/NW Orange counties between Apopka, Mount Dora and Cassia.
136 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Surface ridging continued to impact the region today with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temps. A northwest flow pattern is expected as strong ridging aloft persists over western US/Canada.
334 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into central NC through Thursday.
Currently have a secondary cold front pushing south through the region this morning accompanied by low clouds and gusts north winds. /issued 415 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ A cold front rolled through late last night transporting colder air into the area preventing high temperatures in the Permian Basin from breaking into the 50s this afternoon, while the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande will reach the 50s. An upper level trough over the TX Panhandle will transition to a cutoff low by this afternoon.
225 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Highs should be in the low to mid 40s with dry conditions in central Illinois for at least the next few days. A closed and cut-off upper low over northern TX will migrate southeastward over the upcoming couple of days while central IL remains in a col region between this feature and a large upper trough over southeast Canada.
An upper ridge is over the region with offshore flow. The ridge will weaken as a dissipating front brings some clouds to the area Thursday and Thursday night.
355 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will build north across the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
224 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 The Northern Plains sits under diffluent flow aloft this afternoon, with a closed low over the TX/OK panhandles and a highly amplified ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, the Northern Plains are located on the northeast periphery of stationary high pressure over the Rockies.
High pressure will shift towards the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as an upper level trough slides into the Lower MS Valley.
High pressure across the SE CONUS will gradually slide eastward. However, temperatures will still be cooler than normal for this time of year with mid-upper 40s western Lake region, low to mid 50s interior and Gulf coast, with upper 50s and low 60s along east coast.
An upper ridge over the area will weaken and move eastward through tonight as a large upper trough and embedded closed low advance eastward. The upper low will become centered over Oklahoma by late tonight with an upper trough trailing southwest. Rain will gradually develop and move into the area from the west late in the morning with the highest chances during the afternoon. Warmer temperatures expected on Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s over interior northwest zones to the mid and upper 60s down toward the coastal counties of AL and the western FL panhandle. Lows tonight will also be warmer due to increasing cloud cover, with lows in the low to mid 30s inland to mid and upper 40s along the coast.
Just a few passing high clouds are expected today with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Dry air remains in place and sandwiched between trof to the NE and closed low over the SRN plains.
1135 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 A large mid-latitude cyclone was established across the nations midsection this morning, and will begin to force rain across the Ozarks today. There is still a chance that some snow could be observed, especially in the higher terrain along the Ozark Plateau. A cold front slowly moves across southern Missouri Thursday night. Overnight lows Thursday night should stay in the low 30s.
Rain will likely mix with snow some across northeastern Oklahoma and in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and might even briefly change over to mostly snow toward sunrise as surface temperatures cool enough for less melting to take place. The best potential for accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces remains across western areas of Osage and Pawnee counties in Oklahoma and in the higher terrain in northwest Arkansas. No significant impacts are expected at this time as surface temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing throughout the event.
High pressure that was centered over the Tennessee Valley continues to trek northeast into middle Ohio River Valley. As this high moves northeast, a subtle wind shift more to the northeast has been occurring. Temperatures managed to climb into the lower 70s for all communities.
IFR ceilings across the TAF sites as the pre frontal trough pushes through. By early tomorrow morning, dry northwesterly flow will dry the atmosphere as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s across the south and stall in the 50s and 60s elsewhere hampering the instability. Will also be expecting another band of storms to develop mid to late afternoon probably in the vicinity of Columbus to Madisonville and march eastward out ahead of or near the incoming cold front.
Upper level ridging is bringing quiet conditions along with mostly clear skies. Upper level ridging pushes to the east later today as a short wave pushes into NorCal for tomorrow. Clouds will decrease for the morning into the afternoon tomorrow as the trough closes off just to our north and east.
We continue to be stuck in the doldrums here in the Upper Midwest, as low pressure systems on either side of the continental United States trap us in an area of weak high pressure and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front moving through our region today has pushed in a blanket of stratus clouds that will keep us slightly warmer tonight, with lows staying in the low to mid 20s. Mostly sunny skies should return to the region tomorrow as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes keeps most of the clouds and precipitation to our east. Most of the CWA will likely see highs above freezing tomorrow, 5-10 degrees above normal for December 3. A short wave trough and weak cold front will keep MVFR ceilings around for the next 3 to 5 hours for Minnesota terminals.
Radar detects no shower activity across the area, although a small area of mid level cloudiness moving eastward from the Dry Tortugas toward the Lower Keys has generated some weak radar returns at times.
653 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will build north across the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
335 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 The main forecast challenges over the next few days include continued wintry precipitation this evening, then warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Broad isentropic upglide and a shallow moisture layer, generally under 800mb, is resulting in flurries and freezing drizzle across western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have been hovering right around the freezing mark, while soundings suggest the entire saturated/cloud layer below -10C. The surface and upper lows partly responsible for the wintry conditions slowly work east across the southern Plains, while the cloud deck erodes across Nebraska. A Western US upper ridge nudges onto the High Plains while modest WAA continues at H85. There's potential for even warmer temps, as it seems models have been generally underestimating peak heating the last few weeks under similar conditions.
In general, models are continuing to trend a bit further south with the tracking of this system, with the lows moving east across Oklahoma with a slight northeastward pivot toward far southern Missouri by Thursday. While radar was showing some light returns developing over far east central KS by mid-afternoon, model soundings show a decent amount of dry air in the low levels that will need to be overcome before precipitation actually starts. Temperatures have trended a few degrees warmer today with readings reaching into the low/mid 50s across east central KS and in the 40s elsewhere across the outlook area. The warmer trend today will result in temperatures being slower to drop toward freezing tonight, which will further slow down the transition from rain to snow overnight into Thursday morning.
Dry air remains in place and sandwiched between trof to the NE and closed low over the SRN plains.
434 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 The frontal system that brought the region the cold air yesterday and today has lifted north as a series of lows along the next incoming cold front currently west of the Dallas/ Fort Worth area moves slowly to the southeast this eve. High pressure will remain once all the precip ends and the weekend is shaping up to by dry and on the chilly side.
Across the San Luis Valley temps were in the lower 30s. Cold pool will start shifting east and heights aloft will begin to rise as warmer air advects in from the northwest. High temps tomorrow will be dependent on snowfall, and areas generally east of a line from the KTAD area to KLAA will be cooler due to the fresh snowfall, and expect temps to reach on around 40F, while the rest of the plains will be well into the 40s. Large upper-level ridge will begin to move over the region Thursday night as the previous trough pushes farther south.
337 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure system, that is currently located over the Red River Valley, are spreading quickly into the Mid-South. Little to no impacts are expected, but can't rule out an isolated slick spot on a bridge.
541 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 Strong high pressure aloft and clear skies will dominate our weather tonight.
/issued 337 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ Clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure system, that is currently located over the Red River Valley, are spreading quickly into the Mid-South. Little to no impacts are expected, but can't rule out an isolated slick spot on a bridge.
532 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Surface ridging continued to impact the region today with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temps. A northwest flow pattern is expected as strong ridging aloft persists over western US/Canada.
530 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 The main forecast challenges over the next few days include continued wintry precipitation this evening, then warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Broad isentropic upglide and a shallow moisture layer, generally under 800mb, is resulting in flurries and freezing drizzle across western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have been hovering right around the freezing mark, while soundings suggest the entire saturated/cloud layer below -10C. The surface and upper lows partly responsible for the wintry conditions slowly work east across the southern Plains, while the cloud deck erodes across Nebraska. A Western US upper ridge nudges onto the High Plains while modest WAA continues at H85. There's potential for even warmer temps, as it seems models have been generally underestimating peak heating the last few weeks under similar conditions.
ML/UL ridge will continue to break down tonight, which will allow clouds to spread over the region throughout the night. Clouds will keep temps warmer than last night but they are currently running a bit lower than expected.
A large and complex mid/upper level cyclone remains over the the central/southern Rockies and neighboring Great Plains which is expected to keep all precipitation to our south across the southern Plains.
High pressure and benign weather will then persist through Thursday night. The 12z GEFS solution shifts the western ridge further west over the eastern Pacific Ocean toward Alaska. This pattern does not scream âbig winter storm potentialâ but it does favor cooler weather and potential clipper-type systems for mid-month. The CPCâs 8 to 14-day outlook reflects similar trends with cooler and drier weather favored for week 2. Once the lower cigs move out of the region, residual moisture in the boundary layer could lead to more MVFR during the morning.
631 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today into Thursday.
While some breaks in the showers will appear, an uptick in rain with more of a line of showers is expected as a cold front moves through after midnight, continuing east through the morning hours. /issued 434 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ The frontal system that brought the region the cold air yesterday and today has lifted north as a series of lows along the next incoming cold front currently west of the Dallas/ Fort Worth area moves slowly to the southeast this eve. High pressure will remain once all the precip ends and the weekend is shaping up to by dry and on the chilly side.
We continue to be stuck in the doldrums here in the Upper Midwest, as low pressure systems on either side of the continental United States trap us in an area of weak high pressure and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front moving through our region today has pushed in a blanket of stratus clouds that will keep us slightly warmer tonight, with lows staying in the low to mid 20s. Mostly sunny skies should return to the region tomorrow as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes keeps most of the clouds and precipitation to our east. Most of the CWA will likely see highs above freezing tomorrow, 5-10 degrees above normal for December 3.
506 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Dry conditions can be expected through Thursday with building high pressure.
By Thursday night, the upper low will be just west of the PAH forecast area, and this will reinvigorate our precipitation chances mainly across west Kentucky. The rest of our region will see lows in the lower 30s.
407 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low centered over the Texas panhandle, with two distinct PV anomalies rotating around the low circulation, the northern most anomaly likely aiding in area of precipitation across the area. While not likely, could see a 1 or 2 hour window with patchy freezing drizzle as things wind down. Otherwise ridge over the Rockies will build over the rest of the period leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. With light winds, some fresh snowcover and clearing skies did push forecast towards coldest solutions tonight, with lows falling into the lower teens in the west.
(This afternoon and Tonight) A persistent deformation band, already responsible for nearly a foot of snow in parts of northwestern Oklahoma today, will continue to produce periods of moderate to at times heavy snow the rest of the afternoon into tonight across northwest and portions of north- central Oklahoma on the northwest side of a deep closed low. Ahead of this feature winds will retain an easterly component and will keep temperatures nearly steady and well above freezing along the I-35 corridor tonight. For areas slightly further west (Grant/Garfield/Kingfisher counties), winds will back slightly and the low-level thermal profile will likely cool enough for rain to mix with or perhaps change to snow. As the closed low slowly moves eastward, deeper saturation will wane within the TROWAL through the night, with precipitation intensity in the deformation band decreasing from west to east.
825 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Highs should be in the low to mid 40s with dry conditions in central Illinois for at least the next few days. With a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis overhead, calm winds and clear skies allowed evening temperatures to dip near forecast lows in the mid 20s in many locations. This will act to stabilize temperature trends overnight as the high thin clouds continue to advance north/northeast. A closed and cut-off upper low over northern TX will migrate southeastward over the upcoming couple of days while central IL remains in a col region between this feature and a large upper trough over southeast Canada.