Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and Tonight) Another day of near record warmth is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures forecast to top out in the 70s to lower 80s this afternoon as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft.
1025 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A weak trough axis continues to produce isolated Atlantic showers offshore the Treasure coast. Max temps will reach the low to mid 80s interior and upper 70s coast. Isolated showers will continue tonight along a weak trough axis extending NNE-SSW over the southern waters.
Not enough clouds to prevent diurnal heating from pushing inland temps into the lower to middle 80s and expect another 40 degree rise in temps from morning lows. Weak trough passage this evening followed by high pressure building north of the region will clear skies by the overnight hours and expect another cool night with lows in the 40s inland and near 50 degrees along the Atlantic coast.
Quiet and seasonably mild wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Wed evening, as high pressure remains layered over the Gulf Coast states. Temps have fallen mainly into the 50s for most spots, and with an optimal radiational cooling pattern in place, overnight lows look to fall predom into the lower 40s.
Surface analysis showed a weak cold front extending central MO into southern IL and IN.
1025 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure remains in control today as some high clouds drift across the area. High temperatures continue their warmer than average streak as most highs look to reach 5 to 10 degrees above those averages. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will pass to our east and this will cause winds to become more southwesterly. This would explain why guidance shows high temps a few degrees cooler than today. Perhaps it seems more so, because we've had long durations of quiet high pressure parked overhead this winter.
1045 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Currently - Surface ridging extending along the Gulf Coast connects weakly across northern Florida with another ridge out in the adjacent Atlantic. Consequently, the lower level ridge is quite weak. Short Term Update - The ridge across Florida will strengthen a bit overnight as Florida cools. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, shifting further northeast to east.
253 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Upper level ridging will move across the southern High Plains today, the axis of said ridging moving to the east of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon.
Northerly winds will keep a steady feed of cooler air into the area while 850mb temps hold in the negative teens so high temps will only get into the 20s/30s today. The cold air remains in place tonight dropping low temps into the teens and possibly single digits across the cooler locations in our north.
229 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 A crossing cold front will spawn rain, and then snow showers tonight before dropping temperature back below the averages for Thursday. A changeover to snow, gusty winds, and falling temperatures will continue early this morning behind a cold front currently near the Mason Dixon line and pushing south. Building high pressure behind the front will bring an end to any lingering snow showers this morning.
1106 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure will dominate. High pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
High pressure remains over the forecast area this evening with clear skies and light winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 44 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 40 71 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 40 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 36 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1140 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will push southward through the area this evening, bringing colder temperatures and blustery northerly winds.
High pressure remains centered over Manitoba into the northern Red River Valley. A pattern shift is then on the horizon as an upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to translate eastward and large scale troughing takes its place. (For the period Fri through Wed) Best chances for impactful weather come Sat afternoon and night, with light snow and the possibility for some freezing rain south.
930 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure remains centered over Manitoba into the northern Red River Valley. A pattern shift is then on the horizon as an upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to translate eastward and large scale troughing takes its place. (For the period Fri through Wed) Best chances for impactful weather come Sat afternoon and night, with light snow and the possibility for some freezing rain south.
An upper trough off the coast will split as it moves onshore Thursday with the southern part forming a closed low off southern California, and the northern part becoming too weak to push the previously forecast surface cold front through our area Thursday night.
1258 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing some scattered precipitation to the area.
It will be cold again tonight as high pressure remains across the region.
Key Messages: - Confidence remains high for a short period freezing rain, mixed with sleet, rain or snow, will fall across mainly the eastern 1/3 of MPX CWA.
A "backdoor(ish)" dry cold front will drop south into the area today while slowing/stalling.
A slowly progressive pattern is expected during the period with an upper ridge over the region today, while an upper trough approaches the West Coast. The upper ridge will translate east while the upper trough approaches the Four Corners Region Friday. Upper forcing associated with this trough will remain north/west of the CWA.
356 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Key Messages: - Confidence remains high for a short period freezing rain, mixed with sleet, rain or snow, will fall across mainly the eastern 1/3 of MPX CWA.
Cooler on Friday with a mix of rain and snow in many valley areas.
Low level cloud cover and some light fog moved in across the local area with a cold front overnight. Models eventually have the lower clouds that have encompassed the area this morning breaking up by afternoon. As this cold front lifts back north on Friday. As an upper level low across the desert southwest then lifts northeast across the four corners region and into the plains. but with the low intensifying to our northwest as it crosses the plains.
High pressure over the region is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and mostly dry conditions along the island chain and coastal waters. Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s and dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s, making for a comfortable, yet slightly muggy, morning. The aforementioned elongated area of high pressure extending across the Gulf States into the western Atlantic will allow for gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes, mainly dry conditions, and roughly near normal temperatures through Thursday evening. A stronger area of high pressure will build southeast across the eastern United States Thursday night into Friday, then move off into the western Atlantic during the day on over the weekend.
352 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Areas of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue to affect North Central Montana today.
824 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure will build east into the area today. Northerly winds will keep a steady feed of cooler air into the area while 850mb temps hold in the negative teens so high temps will only get into the 20s/30s today. The cold air remains in place tonight dropping low temps into the teens and possibly single digits across the cooler locations in our north.
Readings showing roughly a 20 to 25 degree difference, with upper 30s in the valleys to the lower 60s in the higher terrain. A weak 'backdoor' CDFNT is still progged to drop into NE AR later today, eventually stalling out tngt as the bndry encounters incrsg ridging aloft.
Temperatures may nudge a degree or two warmer this afternoon, which combined with dew points mixing down to the upper 20s and lower 30s should yield afternoon RH values around 15 percent today.
Thursday should be quiet as a high pressure system moves into the upper Midwest. Slightly colder temperatures are expected to accompany this high, though high temperatures will remain in the upper teens and lower 20s. Then, a Colorado low is expected to strengthen under a deep upper level trough and move through the Midwest.
Thermal profiles further south suggest the potential for freezing drizzle where the strongest warm air advection is, possibly mixing with some snow. Uncertainty is very high, but given the signal and potential impacts from freezing drizzle, it is worth some concern.
Like previous mornings, pockets of ice may form on paved surfaces this morning where sub- surface temperatures remain below freezing, especially on US 2 east of Kalispell and in the Seeley/Swan valleys. The moisture plume will very gradually shift southward through the day ahead of a weak cold front. Tonight, the steady precipitation will become disorganized and showery as the cold front reaches north- central Idaho and west-central Montana. Areas of fog and low clouds will also be common today ahead of the cold front, watch for sudden reduced visibility. Snow levels will drop to valley floors behind the cold front with scattered snow showers on Friday morning.
535 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Aviation - Weekend low pressure system - A low pressure system over the central Plains states will strengthen as it moves east northeast to near Sault St.
433 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
(Today through Friday afternoon) An upper ridge extending from Mexico up along the Rockies to Canada will drift onto the plains today as the next cut off low sets up off the coast of CA. This low will begin to move ashore late tonight rolling across CA Friday and weaken as it moves into AZ. Should be a couple degrees warmer today in the low to mid 70s with guidance indicating much warmer lows tonight in the 40s and 50s as a SE wind pulls moisture into the region. With all that moisture will see low clouds pushing up into the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin late tonight/early Friday morning. Friday looks even warmer with readings in the 80s for portions of SE NM.
322 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 As expected, early morning mesoanalysis shows a pronounced area of 750:700 mb frontogenesis running from roughly Mobridge to Brookings to Fort Dodge. After snow ends, a much cooler day is in store with an easterly component to the surface winds. Quiet conditions should continue through tonight as brief mid level ridging swings overhead. Temperature forecast will be a bit of a headache as there remains a good amount of uncertainty on the extent of the northward push of warmer air. Have generally played temperatures on the warmer side but still some risk of freezing drizzle across roughly the northwest third of our FA.
patchy to areas of fog have developed across the Pine Ridge and northern Nebraska as ample low level moisture gets pulled into the area. Otherwise, a quiet pattern is expected through Friday as strong upper level ridging builds across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Temperatures will drop today from earlier this week especially across north central Nebraska as cooler air moves in behind the departing front. Expect highs to range from the low 60s in southwest Nebraska to the mid 40s across Boyd and Keya Paha counties.
Otherwise, the BRO CWFA will remain on the northern to northwestern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the bay of Campeche during the period.
403 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure centered pretty much right over our CWA. Cold front well to the north, north of the Ohio River around Interstate 70. Aloft, ridging over the Rockies and troughing over New England and off of the Pacific Coast.
/issued 253 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ Upper level ridging will move across the southern High Plains today, the axis of said ridging moving to the east of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon.
Upper ridge over the Southwest United States will shift eastward over the next few days.
Cooler air with this system will linger over the area this weekend, bringing colder overnight temperatures. The associated trough is forecast to split this morning, with more accentuated shower activity moving to our north and south and effectively disintegrating the front locally early this afternoon. Winds are expected to be sub-advisory (less than 45 mph), but will likely be blustery all day, with the coast, interior ridges, and some valleys in southern Mendocino and Lake counties possibly seeing gusts reaching around 30 to 40 mph.
849 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 It was a little warmer this morning than 24 hours ago, but maybe still a little on the cool side for some with temperatures in the upper 40's to mid 50's before sunrise. The warm up will continue through the day under mostly sunny skies with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Pleasant boating conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure builds into the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend producing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s by sunrise. By Friday, the broad trough across the Eastern CONUS slides eastward allowing for upper level ridging to move over the Southeast.
629 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 It's a very cold morning underneath this high pressure. Trimmed the advisory back in areas with light winds and "warmer" temperatures. Thermal profiles further south suggest the potential for freezing drizzle where the strongest warm air advection is, possibly mixing with some snow. Uncertainty is very high, but given the signal and potential impacts from freezing drizzle, it is worth some concern.
Currently, a weak cold front remained just north of the Ohio Valley and into southern Missouri. The air behind the front is a little cooler so highs over this area will not be quite as warm as yesterday. As a result, no rain is expected and temperatures will remain well above normal with highs from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
Areas of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue to affect North Central Montana today.
240 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Not much change to the forecast this morning and not too many issues for the first 24 hours as ridging will continue to control the weather across western and central Wyoming. Look for another day of 60s across many of the lower elevations East of the Divide. A few of the warmer spots may even make a run at the 70 degree mark. On Friday afternoon and evening the pattern will change notably as a large and complex longwave trough pushes eastward over the Rockies.
The pattern starts to change later today as the high that has been in control of our weather the past several days pushes away from the region. As the high moves to the east, the winds will start to turn more southerly and become gusty through this afternoon. The low will then push east into Arizona during the day on Friday. Strong southwesterly flow will precede the low and combined with decent moisture should allow for snow to fall across much of the region.
333 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Today will be the last precip free day for awhile across eastern Idaho as high pressure remains in control of local weather. As we move in Friday, upper trough will move in the Pacific NW helping to break down the ridge and set the stage for more unsettled weather that will continue into the weekend. The first half of Friday looks mostly dry, but PoPs begin to increase throughout the day as moisture associated with a closed low over northern California and Nevada gradually overspreads the region.
411 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Not much change to the forecast this morning and not too many issues for the first 24 hours as ridging will continue to control the weather across western and central Wyoming. Look for another day of 60s across many of the lower elevations East of the Divide. A few of the warmer spots may even make a run at the 70 degree mark. On Friday afternoon and evening the pattern will change notably as a large and complex longwave trough pushes eastward over the Rockies.
457 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Short wave ridging aloft will dominate Oklahoma's weather through tonight. At the surface, a lee trough over eastern Colorado and New Mexico will continue to strengthen and increase south winds in western Oklahoma today.
515 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 (Today and Tonight) Another day of near record warmth is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures forecast to top out in the 70s to lower 80s this afternoon as high pressure reigns supreme at the surface and aloft.
317 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
528 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Upper ridging is moving into the Rockies with broad upper troughing extending from Eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front extends from southern MO, through northeast KS and into southwest Nebraska. Cold front will make highs today very challenging as it continues to slowly progress west. Strong cold front is expected to move through Sat night as another vort max slides over the Four Corners region.
This will result in temperatures 10-20 degrees cooler than yesterday but closer to seasonable normals in the low/mid 50s with low/mid 60s across south- central KY.
It still appears that Friday night we have about a 4kft thick status layer over the entire CWA with some very light ascent, no ice in the column and temperatures cooling or having cooled below freezing, and as such will maintain mention of freezing drizzle.
A weak inverted trough stretching from the Treasure Coast northeastward into the Atlantic is producing light showers and sprinkles right along the coast from Vero Beach to Ft.
924 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Scattered high clouds are streaming across the area this morning and it was another cooler start.
425 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Low level cloud cover and some light fog moved in across the local area with a cold front overnight. Models eventually have the lower clouds that have encompassed the area this morning breaking up by afternoon. As this cold front lifts back north on Friday. As an upper level low across the desert southwest then lifts northeast across the four corners region and into the plains. but with the low intensifying to our northwest as it crosses the plains.
858 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 We have another beautiful day in store for the TN Valley! High pressure is centered along the north central Gulf Coast and spreads out across the Southeast. The increase in heights with mostly clear skies and ESE winds will help daytime highs warm up into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Adjusted the hourly temps to accommodate current trends, however they are still on track to be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal and could be record breaking. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s by sunrise. By Friday, the broad trough across the Eastern CONUS slides eastward allowing for upper level ridging to move over the Southeast.
519 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 As expected, early morning mesoanalysis shows a pronounced area of 750:700 mb frontogenesis running from roughly Mobridge to Brookings to Fort Dodge. After snow ends, a much cooler day is in store with an easterly component to the surface winds. Quiet conditions should continue through tonight as brief mid level ridging swings overhead. Temperature forecast will be a bit of a headache as there remains a good amount of uncertainty on the extent of the northward push of warmer air. Have generally played temperatures on the warmer side but still some risk of freezing drizzle across roughly the northwest third of our FA.
Clear early this morning except for some clouds along the Treasure Coast associated with a weak inverted trough. However what appears to be a localized "superfog" type event is ongoing near Edgewater in SE Volusia County, where very localized but extreme (near zero) visibility reductions occurred along I-95, resulting in significant multi-vehicle crashes and subsequent closure of the highway. Axis of high pressure ridge will remain over NOFL through tonight with light easterly flow across the southern CWA.
We have another beautiful day in store for the TN Valley! High pressure is centered along the north central Gulf Coast and spreads out across the Southeast. The increase in heights with mostly clear skies and ESE winds will help daytime highs warm up into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Adjusted the hourly temps to accommodate current trends, however they are still on track to be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal and could be record breaking. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s by sunrise. By Friday, the broad trough across the Eastern CONUS slides eastward allowing for upper level ridging to move over the Southeast.
356 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Ample solar insolation allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 80s at most island communities this afternoon. Surface analysis across the eastern half of the CONUS depicts a sprawling, weak area of a high pressure over the Southeast, a frontal boundary across southern New England extending westward across the Ohio Valley, and a formidable high pressure building southeastward across the upper Midwest. With such dominant ridging in situ, forecast soundings show a substantial subsidence inversion for the next several days.
Tonight and Friday High pressure and light winds will allow temperatures to once again plummet across the region this evening. The high will move off to the east on Friday, allowing winds to turn southeasterly with some modest warm air advection. Friday Night Through Thursday Impacts from a strong cyclone continue to be the focus in this part of the forecast. While the track of the storm system has shifted only slightly over the past 24 hours, thermal profiles continue to warm, which has led to a shift north of the highest impact weather, including snow and freezing rain.
1228 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure remains in control today and will bring continued VFR through TAF issuance. Northerly winds will keep a steady feed of cooler air into the area while 850mb temps hold in the negative teens so high temps will only get into the 20s/30s today. The cold air remains in place tonight dropping low temps into the teens and possibly single digits across the cooler locations in our north.
237 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure will build overhead this evening and remain nearby through most of this weekend.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the short-term period with sfc and upper level ridging in place. Additional cirrus clouds will return from the west this evening and overnight with temperatures dropping back into the 40s to lower 50s as light sfc winds begin to trend more southerly due to advancing high pressure. On Friday, expect a bit more cloud cover as ridging shifts east and the flow aloft becomes more W/SW ahead of an ejecting upper trough out west.