Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1057 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Surface cold front, depicted well by a line of low clouds, has made its way into central sd this morning as the winds have turned north at Mobridge and increased. The only area of concern is the southeast corner of the CWA where 700mb temperatures drop from +13C down to around +10C as the trough deepens to the west and a weak impulse comes up from the southwest. The upper trough will have enough mid level ascent to generate weak elevated shower activity, but that should only manifest as mid/high clouds and possibly a few hundreds QPF. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but that will mostly be an overnight occurrence for the northwestern CWA, with much less mixed winds potential as the cooler airmass will be in place by the start of Friday.
356 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure moves east.
Ample sunshine and warmer temperatures are expected on Friday. High pressure will continue to pull farther away to the east tonight, shifting the focus to the approaching cold front from the northern Plains. Plenty of dry air aloft will keep skies clear, with lows a bit warmer than last night due to southerly surface flow. An upper trough will translate across the northern states tonight and Friday, dragging a cold front into far northern Illinois by the end of the day Friday. The cold front will be on a weakening trend as it arrives into northern Illinois, due to the primary dynamics remaining well to our north and shifting east away from northern IL. A few showers could develop south of I-70 as subtropical moisture drifts north with a weak trough undercutting the ridge.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 352 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The low level remnants of Nicholas continue to spin across the region this afternoon producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, an upper level trof presently centered over northeast Texas will slide southeast overnight which will use the lingering deep moisture to provide renewed support for widespread convection each afternoon through the weekend.
Lows tonight will then generally be in the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s down to the coast. Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents was extended through tonight, with a moderate to follow through the first part of the weekend.
150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure continues to pull east away from the area from lower Michigan. The return southerly flow has got underway and will continue overnight ahead of low pressure in the northern Plains. Progs show any precipitation associated the approaching low and cold front would hold off to just northwest of the area later tonight. This in combo with the lower level forcing with the frontal boundary, we should see at least some broken coverage of showers/thunderstorms. Any lingering activity will start to head off to the southeast Friday evening with high pressure building in rather quickly behind the front into northern/central WI.
This afternoon should see high temperatures top out in the low 90s, which is a little warmer than yesterday. The lighter winds today will also make it feel a bit warmer.
1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge is centered across the Desert Southwest, while an upper level low is located across North Texas. This upper level low will have little effect on the area, besides helping to keep temperatures near seasonal normals.
1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Today and tonight) Thursday is expected to remain quiet, as the upper level low exits to the southeast and ridging begins to establish itself over the region.
226 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure extending southwestward from SE Canada continues to dominate the weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the high slips further east tonight, surface winds are expected to veer more southeasterly and will likely begin advecting higher dewpoints into the region. This weak mid level lift, coupled with increasing moisture in the low levels, may be enough to spark some diurnally driven convection in SE MO and southern IL. This will push a cold front through IA before it stalls out somewhere near the MO/IA border tomorrow afternoon or evening.
as the pressure gradient helps sustain breezy southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front and good mixing will slow the typical diurnal trend. with some of the guidance hinting even cooler. but strayed a little warmer than neighboring offices based on the last couple of cold frontal passages. with an area of high pressure transitioning across the plains over the upcoming weekend as low pressure digs across the Pacific northwest. This trough will be the next potential weather maker for the local area.
Highs late this afternoon will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, with the highest values over far southwestern Missouri. Low temperatures on Friday morning will bottom out in the low to mid 60s. An upper-level ridge will build into the central CONUS for this weekend, with the aforementioned upper-level low remaining over the southern Mississippi River Valley.
529 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The first cold front has pushed off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon with another cold front currently moving into northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota.
730 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure moves east.
The more impactful push of the cold front will be felt tonight as skies clear and a much colder air mass from the north descends over our region. Some low lying river valley areas and locations near the border with Saskatchewan will easily drop to near freezing tonight.
613 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Surface cold front will be making its push through northeast sd and west central mn late this afternoon/early evening. With the help of lift from a short wave trough moving in from the west tonight along with mid level caa, steep mid level lapse rates, and decent mucape/instability, the showers and storms are expected to develop over the next several hours. The surface analysis shows a secondary area of cooler air off to our northwest late this afternoon pushing southeast.
The next cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest by Thursday. As of 745 PM: Showers have largely diminished as deeper moisture and forcing continued to be pulled east of the area by a developing coastal low pressure system. Remaining low level moisture and weak upslope flow will maintain a slight chance of showers, mainly near the Blue Ridge escarpment overnight.
950 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure moves east.
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 A quiet and warm September night is in store, with morning lows 6-8 degrees warmer than normal. For Friday, expect another mostly sunny day with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s. A vort max near the ArkLaTex region and the messy remnants of post- tropical cyclone Nicholas will slowly interact with each other and meander across much of the Gulf Coast states. Meanwhile, upper level ridging over the desert Southwest and northern Mexico will begin to exert its influence into the Ohio Valley. The upper level ridge will help to suppress precipitation and convective chances across our northern zones, but have lesser influence across portions of central and southern Kentucky where rain/storm chances will be possible.
643 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure extending southwestward from SE Canada continues to dominate the weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the high slips further east tonight, surface winds are expected to veer more southeasterly and will likely begin advecting higher dewpoints into the region. This weak mid level lift, coupled with increasing moisture in the low levels, may be enough to spark some diurnally driven convection in SE MO and southern IL. This will push a cold front through IA before it stalls out somewhere near the MO/IA border tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Surface cold front will be making its push through northeast sd and west central mn late this afternoon/early evening. With the help of lift from a short wave trough moving in from the west tonight along with mid level caa, steep mid level lapse rates, and decent mucape/instability, the showers and storms are expected to develop over the next several hours. The surface analysis shows a secondary area of cooler air off to our northwest late this afternoon pushing southeast.
The first cold front has pushed off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon with another cold front currently moving into northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota.
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge is building westward across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, this is resulting in light and mostly southerly breezes across the area. Short Term Update - The ridge will continue to fortify through the overnight period as a weak low lifts northward along the North Carolina coast. A weak ridge across South Florida and the Keys will maintain light breezes.
The highest coverage was generally along the coast as the sea breeze developed, then along I-4 from Orlando to Sanford, and now across much of Volusia County this evening. Temps settle in the low/mid 70s.
814 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An upper-level cyclone is nearly stationary over the Southern Plains this morning, inching eastward toward the Arklatex by this time tomorrow. Despite this trough approaching, 500mb geopotential heights are forecast to increase slightly as the low slowly fills beneath a broad ridge. /issued 347 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ Rainy weather appears in store for the Midsouth on Friday, ahead of a slow-moving weak upper low over east TX. An inverted surface pressure trof extending from the Arklamiss up the MS delta will provide some focus for convection, along with numerous boundaries from differential surface heating. Instability will wane Friday night, but scattered showers will likely continue, with the upper low nearly stalled over AR.
/issued 347 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ Rainy weather appears in store for the Midsouth on Friday, ahead of a slow-moving weak upper low over east TX. An inverted surface pressure trof extending from the Arklamiss up the MS delta will provide some focus for convection, along with numerous boundaries from differential surface heating. Instability will wane Friday night, but scattered showers will likely continue, with the upper low nearly stalled over AR.
Showers are starting to develop over the east and south with an upper low just off to our east, and another upper low over the Plains. The low to our east will move northward, and the upper low to our west will sneak closer to the area allowing for additional southerly flow and moisture transport to the region.
Unsure of how much of this will spill off the higher terrain and into the TN valley but the low levels remain fairly saturated so expect low cloud development to some degree later tonight. Soundings keep the lowest few thousand feet saturated overnight at KTYS and KCHA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 80 69 84 69 / 10 30 40 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 68 85 67 / 10 30 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 81 67 83 67 / 10 20 30 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 83 64 84 64 / 0 20 20 40 20.
246 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper trof moving along the north central conus/Canadian border this morning will move to Ontario and the northern Great Lakes by early evening. The associated surface cold front will sag southward across central Kansas this afternoon with temperatures falling from midday highs in the 80s into the 70s. Much warmer air will reside further south across southern Kansas with highs near 90F. Upper ridging will develop over the area once again on Saturday with highs close to 90F across most of the area.
335 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the northern Plains and will continue to move off to the east today. The trough will send a weak front south into portions of Kansas and Missouri but should overall remain north of the area with the better upper level support.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/ The low level remnants of Nicholas continue to spin across the region this afternoon producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, an upper level trof presently centered over northeast Texas will slide southeast overnight which will use the lingering deep moisture to provide renewed support for widespread convection each afternoon through the weekend.
As the high moves east, southerly flow and increased gradient will result in breezy to windy conditions with mixed winds in the 20-30kt range across the CWA.
The south winds will bring warmer temperatures into the area today with highs in the 70s in most areas. Upper ridge builds over the area tonight and moves to the east on Saturday turning the flow aloft to the SW.
Aloft, an upper level closed low will slide towards the region from the W. Given abundant cloud cover and scattered precipitation, highs will be coolest over Ern/SErn AR where highs are expected to reach the lower 80s.
Another quiet weather night across central IL with high pressure off the east coast and a cold front located over the upper Midwest. Under clear skies and light winds, 2 am temperatures were a few degrees warmer than recent nights, in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The other area that could see an isolated afternoon to evening shower/storm is south of I-70 where a surge of deeper moisture from the south overlaps a subtle surface trof. Southwest flow ahead of the front will tap into thermal ridging (+18C at 850 mb), sending highs to the mid/upper 80s. 1025 mb high pressure builds across the Great Lakes on Saturday, and resulting northeast winds will keeps highs in the mid 80s.
1036 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure extending southwestward from SE Canada continues to dominate the weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the high slips further east tonight, surface winds are expected to veer more southeasterly and will likely begin advecting higher dewpoints into the region. This weak mid level lift, coupled with increasing moisture in the low levels, may be enough to spark some diurnally driven convection in SE MO and southern IL. This will push a cold front through IA before it stalls out somewhere near the MO/IA border tomorrow afternoon or evening.
In the circulation around this low, there is an band of somewhat higher moisture as seen in the model moisture fields (especially in the lower levels) and the GOES-16 water vapor channels. This signal wanes toward the late afternoon and focus shifts to the cold front that will be pushing across the Texas panhandle and Kansas potentially toward western and northern Oklahoma and the potential of storms developing near this front late this afternoon into the early evening across western portions of the area with the highest potential in the northwest.
316 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Cold front extended from the MN Arrowhead region to nw IA and then to northern CO. Key messages: 1) Chance of showers and storms with a cold front today. 2) Cooler and less humid tonight with northwest winds. Details: Today: Main challenge is the coverage of any showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, as the weakening cold front pushes across the forecast area. Tonight: A slight chance of showers or storms in our se cwa early this evening but then high pressure builds into the area. Northwest winds will usher cooler and less humid airmass with lows ranging from around 50 along Hwy 20 to the lower 60s far se.
345 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 (Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021) Today through Saturday: Showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front well to the west continue to weaken as they progress eastward early this morning. It will turn cooler behind the front tonight, with temps dropping below 50 across western portions of the forecast area. and just a touch cooler north. Should be a good amount of sunshine under high pressure, though clouds may brush the south closer to the frontal zone.
The surface front will be shoved north of the region this afternoon as an impressive upper level ridge builds in.
115 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 A cold front will approach the area Friday night into Saturday, but may stall just north of the region.
Expecting the increased cloud coverage to remain through the day with upper end Chance PoP over majority of the area with highest coverage favored across the western half of the area as weak ridging begins to exit the CWA in tandem with a mid- lvl flow pushing across the ArkLaTex region.
254 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Upper low, currently located near the Red River over far south- central Oklahoma, will continue to drift southeast towards the upper southeast Texas coast over the next couple of days.
CMiller (Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure continues to pull east away from the area from lower Michigan. The return southerly flow has got underway and will continue overnight ahead of low pressure in the northern Plains. Progs show any precipitation associated the approaching low and cold front would hold off to just northwest of the area later tonight. This in combo with the lower level forcing with the frontal boundary, we should see at least some broken coverage of showers/thunderstorms. Any lingering activity will start to head off to the southeast Friday evening with high pressure building in rather quickly behind the front into northern/central WI.
The timing of the cold front and post frontal stratus will continue to be the main challenge in the short term forecast. This cooler air along with post frontal stratus will lead to difficulties of much diurnal heating through the day and we could see highs only in the mid 60s for portions of Hamilton and Scott counties. Through the day as the low moves eastward compressional heating ahead of the front should occur for areas south and east of Dodge City where we should see highs reach into the lower 90s. Severe weather at this point is on the low side as we should have ML Cape values around 1000 with 0-6 km shear values in the 20-30 kt range.
Moisture associated with post tropical cyclone Nicholas will stream northward into western/southern KY today as an inverted trough stretches from central LA up into southwestern TN. It will remain warm with highs in the low/mid 80s. A cold front currently located over the Upper Midwest will push southward across Indiana tonight and should be along the Ohio River by Saturday morning. Southern Indiana will be mainly influenced by a breaking ridge while south-central Kentucky will fall more under the broad trofiness and lingering tropical moisture over the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South. Temps continue to run above normal, especially at night given the high dewpoints.
The latest satellite imagery indicates that the cu field has begun to expand back to the W around the low level circulation, as it slowly begins to lift N overnight into Cntrl LA. Sct convection which has been persistent this evening along the attendant weak H850 inverted trough axis over Cntrl LA into SW MS, has gradually been showing some signs of weakening, although additional convection redevelopment can not be ruled out overnight as this inverted trough continues to lift N into N LA/Srn AR through daybreak Friday. These cigs should lower/become IFR or LIFR late over N LA/portions of Deep E TX and SCntrl AR, as the low level circulation associated with the remnants of Nicholas shifts N into Cntrl LA by/prior to daybreak. Along with the lowering cigs, vsbys may lower as well in -DZ/patchy FG, primarily affecting NCntrl LA.
Otherwise, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop later this morning into the afternoon hours as our forecast area remains situated to the east of an upper level low over Texas.
Today Through Saturday To begin the period, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is located south of the CWA along with an upper level low approaching from the Great Plains.
A surface front will be shoved north of the region this afternoon as an impressive upper level ridge builds in.
West Central Texas is currently in the transition zone between a weak upper level low centered over northeastern Texas and a weak upper level ridge starting to build in from the Desert Southwest. The low will continue to linger over eastern Texas over the next day or two before getting pushed out by the ridge.
302 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 We begin to transition into a wetter pattern today as an upper trough over Texas ejects eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy and humid day with high temperatures peaking just below seasonable norms in the lower 80s.
A mid/upper level low pressure system now located over the far southern Plains will drift ever so slowly east into LA/AR region by Saturday. The counter-clockwise rotation around this low will serve to throw tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Nicholas northward into the region with time. With the low level tropical moisture in place, it will also feel quite humid with dew points pushing the 70 degree mark in many areas along with afternoon temps in the mid 80s.
Look for the upper trough and associated low to our west over Texas to finally begin to slowly move eastward. The wet pattern continues into the day Saturday as the trough remains in the Mississippi Valley and the upper low begins to stall and could possibly retrograde some.
221 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 08z surface analysis had high over MT pushing cold front well south of the CWA, currently located from northern CO into southern MN.
As a result the midlevel jet will migrate northward ahead of the approaching low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. Tomorrow, a low pressure over southern Cal will get absorbed into the main flow over the Great Basin causing the pressure gradient to tighten up again. The uncertainty is the quality of the low-level moisture and response in the surface RH.
A 593 dam high will be centered over far W TX with an assocd low lvl thermal ridge stregthening and expanding ewd over the Permian Basin this afternoon. Strong heating over the higher terrain of the Davis and Glass Mtns will promote isold convection early this afternoon. Instead of U90s, highs will fall a few degrees into the low to mid 90s which is still above normal for this time of year. Isolated showers and storms will again be possible over the higher terrain south of the Pecos River where upslope flow will be present.
356 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 An upper level low is moving across Manitoba this morning which is ushering a cold front south across the Central Plains. Warm air near 350 mb will keep convective instability on the low side (only around 500 J/Kg) hence no severe weather is expected. /WCI Upper level low across north Texas should reside along the upper Texas coast by Saturday morning in an otherwise large area of high pressure across the central CONUS. A respectable trough is progged, at this time, to come ashore the BC maritimes.
158 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure moves east.
The latest satellite imagery indicates that the cu field has begun to expand back to the W around the low level circulation, as it slowly begins to lift N overnight into Cntrl LA. Sct convection which has been persistent this evening along the attendant weak H850 inverted trough axis over Cntrl LA into SW MS, has gradually been showing some signs of weakening, although additional convection redevelopment can not be ruled out overnight as this inverted trough continues to lift N into N LA/Srn AR through daybreak Friday.
As the right entrance region of the upper level jet moves east of the area cooler and drier air will settle in, bringing a pleasant day to the area. High pressure shifts east of the area quickly tonight with southerly flow developing. Some cooler lows in the mid 40s will be likely east of Interstate 29 where south winds will be slowest to develop while lows in central SD will be in the mid 50s as southerly flow develops in the evening.