Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
115 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
1023 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER RIDGE AXIS PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT AROUND 45 METERS THROUGH 12Z. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK CAA BEHIND IT.
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF.
Temperatures fell into the teens east of Springfield, and into the lower 20s to the west. Arctic high pressure finally shifted east of the region, forcing a return of southerly breezes this morning. These south winds combined with sunshine today will facilitate temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. Temperatures in the lower 50s are likely out toward Joplin and Pittsburg. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 30s with no precipitation expected.
MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL CAN BE REACHED.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A LOW CUTTING OFF WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS MUCH OF MID-AMERICA. ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS SUPPORT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH-WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WE STILL EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN MARCOS.
349 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A STRONG 591 DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO KEPT THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1052 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
310 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL SHIFT TO MORE WEAK SLY FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY. CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHICH WERE RUNNING A TAD WARMER THAN THE GRIDS/12Z MOS INDICATED. SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS.
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION HAVE MOVED WEST INTO DEKALB COUNTY. STILL EXPECTING IT TO TAKE TILL 11AM-12PM TO GET THE WHOLE AREA ABOVE FREEZING.
Leaned aoa warmer MAV guidance for most of the CWA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MODEL.
254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015 High pressure has shifted to the southeast of the area and southerly winds are treating us kindly today. Only exception is across south central Missouri where deeper snow cover has held temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. Little change in the weather pattern is expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure to our south maintains a low level southwesterly flow. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night, ranging from the upper 20s in south central Missouri to the low/mid 30s elsewhere.
WINDS GO FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON'T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING DUE TO THE MELTING SNOW. AND WARMING CONDITIONS FCST AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SW TROF FROMT HE EPAC BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON THU. WHILE A MODEST CYCLONE/FRONT GENERATES N OF THE FA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT OF SORTS THRU THE REGION.
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS MUCH OF MID-AMERICA. ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS SUPPORT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH-WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
358 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. MORNING RADIOSONDES INDICATE SOME WARMING OF THE AIRMASS AT THE LOW LEVELS SO EXPECT HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.
200 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS. A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CA INTO THE GULF OF AK. SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT WAS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHICH WERE RUNNING A TAD WARMER THAN THE GRIDS/12Z MOS INDICATED. SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS.
954 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES TONIGHT WHERE ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 8-9 AM. BELOW NORMAL LOWS LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL.
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EVEN THEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND WARMEST AIR WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST.
228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
Better mixing throughout also resulted in warmer temps with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows are therefore much warmer in the lower 30s area wide. Saturday is on tap to be similar to today, if not even warmer. Latest trends on GFS and NAM MOS guidance with some decent mixing present suggest highs tomorrow could be a few degrees warmer in the lower 60s. The trough axis passes through the area by late afternoon, shifting weak winds to the northwest.
1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY RESTS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTING RIDGE IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM KENTUCKY SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. THE WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE CWA.
1254 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
THESE SUSPICIONS WERE CONFIRMED WHEN THE 12Z METMOS CAME IN 9-10 DEGREES WARMER AT SOME LOCATIONS THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE. SFC RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION. WHILST WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING PROMOTES THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO VEER TO THE SW BY THIS AFTN /AOA 10 MPH/. WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS THOUGH STILL CHILLY /20S/. ALTHOUGH A PERSISTENT LOW-AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE COULD DISRUPT THINGS.
1144 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAWRENCE VALLEY GUSTING CLOSE TO 20KTS ON CHANNELED FLOW WHICH HAS USHERED SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN WITH OGDENSBURG REPORTING 21F THIS HOUR. WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN SUMMITS).
WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS. THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL BE WARMER DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. IT COULD APPROACH 60 IN JULESBURG WHILE SOME OF THE LOWER SNOW COVERED AREAS WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS.
249 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WERE BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN MO WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WILL DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA.
1137 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015 High pressure centered on a SW to NE axis just to the southeast of Illinois will remain nearly stationary today. A low pressure system moving across southern Canada will drag a warm front across Iowa/MN today. We will see gusty southerly winds in Illinois as a result of that approaching warm front and a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the frontal zone. A ridge of high pressure will pull away from the area today. The surface pressure gradient will become much stronger as the ridge departs, allowing gusty southerly winds to develop. These southerly winds will begin to transport much warmer temperatures into the area, a welcome trend that will persist for at least the next several days.
TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S OVER THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX TO THE MID 20S FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. EAST TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION. /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE FROM TO FREEZING AND BELOW ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. AND WILL HELP "WARM" TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 50F TO THE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO I-10.
High pressure continues to keep the air mass warm and dry.
THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME SLIGHT COOLER AIR RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY.
LATER THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY TURN WEST SOUTHWEST AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 - MAINLY IN THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT MAINLY APPEARS TO BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF IT PRECIPS AT ALL.
1100 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015 High pressure centered on a SW to NE axis just to the southeast of Illinois will remain nearly stationary today. A low pressure system moving across southern Canada will drag a warm front across Iowa/MN today. We will see gusty southerly winds in Illinois as a result of that approaching warm front and a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the frontal zone. A ridge of high pressure will pull away from the area today. The surface pressure gradient will become much stronger as the ridge departs, allowing gusty southerly winds to develop. These southerly winds will begin to transport much warmer temperatures into the area, a welcome trend that will persist for at least the next several days.
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA THE 06/12Z NAM/GFS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SAT. THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST MON IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WED. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F OR SO WARMER ACROSS SE AZ VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR. THEN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TUE-THUR. WHEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
942 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHEAST U. A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL FINALLY TAKE PLACE AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST U. AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE GIVEN GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT. BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH FAIRLY MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN WARMER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY SFC WINDS. WHICH WAS MUCH WARMER AND SEEMED MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY SNOW COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER EASTERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. SET UP BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEST COAST.
We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in the region. Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be moving off to the southeast over the course of the night. Lows Saturday night will be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.
211 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY. AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER PATTERN.
1151 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING PASSING RIDGE AXIS SINKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY. SFC TROF OR EVEN A TYPE OF WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO DRAW UPON PLAINS THERMAL POOL AND MAKE FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
101 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT.
254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. SO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON.
Winds will start to pick up out of the south later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the region as well as warmer temperatures. For Saturday southwesterly winds will continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for many locations.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDE AND MAV MOS 18Z-00Z AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST AND WAS AMONG THE LOWEST AVAILABLE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS WITH RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
236 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND NWLY FLOW IS PARKED OVER THE REGION HELPING TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. AND WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT NIGHT.
356 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS HERE).
201 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015 Even though se winds have returned the surface anticyclone is still showing a presence across TX. By Sat evening an initial jet max and associated shrtwv trof will approach and move into the Trans Pecos region starting Sat evening.
THE HIGH CENTER IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AND THE LOW CENTER IS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THE CONTROLLING RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND AMPLIFIES INLAND SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BAJA CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NE THROUGH AZ AND NM.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MASS.
/ISSUED 341 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Quiet weather for the short term forecast, with warmer conditions this afternoon. This allows light southerly flow to return and bring a slightly warmer air mass into West Central Texas. Thus, will stay on the cooler side of guidance for most areas.
303 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015 High pressure will provide quiet weather through tonight. The pressure gradient between a warm front entering NW IL this evening and high pressure to the SE of IL will keep southerly winds in the 8-10kt range in most areas. Those winds will help keep low temps a little warmer, with readings ranging from the low 20s in the Wabash River Valley to the low 30s from Jacksonville to Rushville. Northwest flow will also continue, but warmer temps in the lower levels will continue to advect northward through the period.
Went closer to the warmer GFS MOS guidance for high temperatures today, particularly in areas without snow cover from central MO eastward through the St Louis metro area.