Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
124 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Things are settling down with high pressure settling toward the area. Nam shows a 500 mb trough over New England with more troughing in the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. This troughing remains throughout the forecast period into Tue morning. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Canadian Prairies 12z Tue which digs into the upper Great Lakes on Wed. This trough remains over the area into Sat with it becoming more amplified on Sat. Temperatures look to be slightly below normal for most of this forecast period as a cold front moves through on Wed and then stalls out south of the area through Sat.
Starting around 4 pm, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop along a prefrontal trough, mainly south and east of Dodge City. Cold frontal passage expected tonight, with winds becoming N/NE across all of SW KS during the late evening. Lows Sunday morning in the lower to mid 60s. Cloudy (in the morning) and noticeably cooler. Given the expected afternoon August sunshine, ignored the cooler MET/NAM guidance, and followed the warmer MAV guidance, with afternoon temperatures ranging from near 80 NE (Hays) to the mid 80s along the Oklahoma border. About a full 10 degrees cooler than Saturday, with NE breezes of 10-20 mph persisting all day.
More widely scattered activity is seen across the lower elevations to the south as well as the White Mountains. Expect a drying trend with lower humidity and warmer temperatures through the middle of the coming week.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast WY, with frontal boundary stretching from north central WY to eastern CO. Highs will be in the 70s and lower 80s each day, with today looking to be slightly warmer than Sunday. Potential for severe weather later on Sunday looks minimal at this point, with less instability, good deal of clouds, and slightly cooler temps.
443 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 High pressure returns this afternoon into Sunday as a cold front stalls over the Carolinas.
After these waves, high pressure will nose in from the northwest.
High pressure will provide a fair and cool night, with fair weather continuing through Sunday morning.
A weak cold front is still on schedule to drop into the South Plains during the day Sunday.
1246 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Cold air aloft, upslope moisture advection and a thermal ridge across the Cntl Rockies appear to be fueling thunderstorms across Wrn Neb this morning.
The mid-level flow will become more cyclonic on Sunday as a broad upper trough swings into the area. Quite a bit of cloud cover is expected, which could hold temps down in the low to mid 70s across most areas. Chances still look to be higher for scattered showers and isolated storms than today with the approach of the trough.
The driest day of the forecast will be today, and thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday, cooler temps along with lower dewpoints will hang around today as well.
High pressure over the Atlantic is spreading the ridge axis over the Florida Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the Florida Keys on the southern edge of the pressure gradient. The ridge is driving winds along the Keys and surrounding waters, but daytime heating of the larger land masses, Cuba and the Peninsula, are perturbing the flow. The ridge is the thing in the forecast that seems to want to persist for the long haul.
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with weak cyclonic flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, weak Canadian high pressure has settled across the northern Plains, with a stationary boundary wedged against the east flank of the Rockies. Potential for severe weather later on Sunday looks minimal at this point, with less instability, good deal of clouds, and slightly cooler temps.
Rain and thunder chances ramp up tonight as a complex that is expected to develop over the high plains makes a run at the area. resulting in the higher rain chances across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
A 594 dm upper level high pressure cell continues to sit stagnant over the CWA, responsible for the subsidence and very warm weather.
The other feature of interest is the weak short wave trough moving out of south central SD.
Nam shows a 500 mb trough over New England with more troughing in the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. This troughing remains throughout the forecast period into Tue morning. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Canadian Prairies 12z Tue which digs into the upper Great Lakes on Wed. This trough remains over the area into Sat with it becoming more amplified on Sat. Temperatures look to be slightly below normal for most of this forecast period as a cold front moves through on Wed and then stalls out south of the area through Sat.
The high pressure system responsible will move east of the area on Friday. This will allow a low pressure system to approach from the west for a cooling trend. This morning, the low clouds and fog made it to KSEA's doorstep. The onshore pressure gradient will be stronger this afternoon compared to yesterday; thus, look stratus to blanket much of the lowlands Friday morning. As the ridge axis slides off to the east, it will allow a low pressure system over the northeast Pacific to approach the region on Friday.
Finally, a weak cold front will move slowly south across the terminal sites later this evening and tonight. Probablistic guidance suggest the highest rain chances will be across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle between 06z and 12z Friday.
Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: A hot high pressure heat dome currently resides over the Desert Southwest with a ridge rising up north into the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and Yukon Territory. Northeast Montana lies on the cooler side of these two classing airmasses under northwest to northern flow aloft. Today through tonight: High pressure at the surface will keep things seasonal, stable, and dry with light winds.
1010 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania today, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
Temperatures should reach the low 80s over much of the area due to dry adiabatic mixing to around 700 mb. A little warmer day expected today as mid level heights build a bit from the west. This wave did produce a few light showers over the high county, but activity has faded with the energy sliding southeast into northern Wyoming. Pieces of energy, along with a cyclonic jet max wrap around the low and eject across southern and eastern Montana. Effective bulk shear was progged around 35kts, which is on the low end for stronger storms. Temperatures look to be a bit warmer on Friday despite easterly surface winds.
959 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Returning moisture on southerly flow around departing high pressure will combine with a weak disturbance aloft to produce a few showers and thunderstorms today, mainly east of I-71. On Friday, a weak cold front will approach, providing yet another chance of showers and storms as higher humidity and warm temperatures remain.
A weak trough moving northwest later tonight and tomorrow may cause activity to persist into the overnight hours. Additionally, the MCS induced a Gulf of California surge as well, pushing dewpoints along the Lower Colorado river to near 80. The disturbance responsible for the increased MCS activity will start to move northwest tonight and north on Friday in response to deepening low pressure over the northern Great Basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18z over the higher terrain areas, then move toward the northeast.
1204 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
757 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front will stall across the region today. The front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front Friday. A cold front will stall across the region today through tonight.
732 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania today, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
1048 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary just south and west of the CWA, with high pressure over northeast MT. Today is looking to be a pleasant day across the area as high pressure slides north and east of the area. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with winds gradually switching to the east and southeast later today and this evening as the high moves away from the region.
1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Active weather pattern this morning as a trough of low pressure edges westward over the South Florida peninsula. The high moisture content may lead to an additional flooding concern, as heavy rain already led to areas of ponding of water and minor east coast metro street flooding earlier today. /issued 351 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ A mid to upper level trough of low pressure extending from the Bahamas southwest into the Florida Keys will continue to move to the west northwest through South Florida today into tonight. 2 inches by this afternoon over all of South Florida, as the mid to upper level trough moves through the area. High pressure will then build back into South Florida for Friday into this weekend.
A weak trough off the east central Fl coast will continue to drift NNW today and will produce scattered showers/storms to mainly the outer offshore waters. Latest HRRR and lamp guidance suggests the low clouds will linger for another couple of hours before lifting by around noon. Weak trough along the east central Fl coast will drift NNW into tonight.
737 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Despite weak high pressure across the region today and Friday, modest increases in humidity and daytime temperatures will result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Skies will be partly sunny on balance, and high temperatures will reach the lower 80s in most valley locations today and Friday.
1254 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
The forecast area is currently under a southwest flow aloft in between the ridge centered over Colorado and New Mexico and the trough just off the California coast. The California trough is progged to lift northward tomorrow, allowing the ridge to build back westward by the weekend.
An Upper level low will gradually weaken and move east with today likely being the last day of thunderstorms across the interior zones. Today will likely be the last day of enhanced thunderstorm potential across our region as the low begins to weaken and eventually push onshore Friday.
1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move offshore today.
1004 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
A few showers will be around this morning impacting cha and tys with the lowest flight condition at cha where an mvfr ceiling hangs in for awhile and possibly a period of ifr vsby due to the rain.
1036 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Hydro A cold front will approach the area from the west today and move through the region tonight and Friday. Dry weather returns for the weekend with high pressure building in from the west. Main forecast challenge pertains to ascertaining shower/thunderstorm chances associated with a cold front moving through Southwest Lower Michigan over the next 24-36 hours. Some scattered redevelopment is expected on Friday as the cold front will finally be pushing through.
1238 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front will stall across the region today. The front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front Friday. A cold front will stall across the region today through tonight.
955 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front will stall across the region today. The front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front Friday. A cold front will stall across the region today through tonight.
623 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Cold front continues to pivot through the area tonight. This front is being driven southward by a well developed upper trough over the eastern Dakotas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 72 86 72 / 70 40 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 69 85 69 / 70 50 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 82 71 86 70 / 70 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 85 66 / 70 50 50 40.
Little change in the pattern (upper low in northern California, deformation axis across the southern portion of our CWA), and potential for convection today compared to yesterday. Most of the activity will be across the south near the Nevada border and in the higher terrain of central Idaho. Upper level ridge begins to break down Friday night as an upper level trough reaches the northwest coast.
741 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Aviation A cold front will approach the area from the west today and move through the region tonight and Friday. Dry weather returns for the weekend with high pressure building in from the west. Main forecast challenge pertains to ascertaining shower/thunderstorm chances associated with a cold front moving through Southwest Lower Michigan over the next 24-36 hours. Some scattered redevelopment is expected on Friday as the cold front will finally be pushing through.
900 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 An upper trough and its/s surface reflection over the southern 1/3 of FL and the Bahamas this morning ease westward today. This moisture along with lift from the upper trough and afternoon sea breeze circulations.
A weak trough along the West Coast will bring night and morning coastal clouds through the weekend with clearing each afternoon.
This will help provide lift early this afternoon for storms that fire off the high terrain. A cold front will push south across northeast Colorado early this afternoon. Later arrival of the cold front will allow for more heating and a little better instability. High temperatures today are expected to be cooler due to cloud cover and a cooler airmass moving in behind the cold front. Storms will likely initiate off the higher terrain than spread into the adjacent plains.
An Upper level low will gradually weaken and move east with today likely being the last day of thunderstorms across the interior zones. Today will likely be the last day of enhanced thunderstorm potential across our region as the low begins to weaken and eventually push onshore Friday. Models have been trending towards a more organized cut off low solution versus an open long wave trough as were previous depictions.
1032 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry today with seasonal temperatures. Valley fog has developed across NY/PA this morning since high pressure is currently located over the region and mostly clear skies has prevailed through the night. Temps are expected to fall into the low 60s/uppr 50s Thurs night. On Friday night, general model consensus has a large-scale upper trough slowly approaching from the west, while a surface warm front slowly approaches from the south.
Latest satellite trends also indicate that the lower ceiling deck may enter KAUS airspace next few hours and have placed a TEMPO MVFR ceiling group now through 1500Z. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate keeping most of our CWA dry with increasing temperatures.
645 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 The low pressure system that brought all the rain to the North Country over the past 24 to 36 hours continues to move eastward.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Stacked surface and upper low is over Saskatchewan and Manitoba early this morning. Northeast Montana will remain in a cyclonic NW flow aloft on the southwest side of this low today and Saturday. Synoptic Setup: long range begins with a trough running down from the Northwest Territories through southern Manitoba and into the eastern Dakotas where it turns west and backs into the Colorado. To the west a ridge runs up the cascades from northern California through British Columbia. In between lies the high plains including northeast Montana under northwest to northern flow aloft.
300 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 A cold front/wind shift has moved across roughly the northwest half of Oklahoma and western north Texas today. The primary focus for storms will be a dryline and cold front with some upper support from an approaching trough. A more likely solution will be for storms to develop along a cold front during the early to mid evening hours after near surface winds have backed by early evening.
The 1 am surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure across the Southeast, along with a rather cool, dry airmass for this time of year. Although high temperatures will return to average (upper 80s), the dry air will actually keep the apparent temperature a few degrees cooler.
Hi-res models suggest storms will stay along and north of Interstate 74 as the cluster pushes across Indiana and into Ohio overnight, but with the warm front hung up nearby and a 30-40 kt low-level jet, it's difficult to rule out precip completely.
237 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Rain chances return tonight, continuing at times through the holiday weekend with another area of low pressure. The last few sprinkles/light rain showers will dissipate over the next few hours as flat ridging builds in for the late afternoon/evening hours with a brief dry interlude. Models agree on bringing what will likely be an MCS into the CWA overnight along/ahead of a warm front, although the exact track is disagreed on.
147 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 An area of high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley today.
358 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A weak trough will extend down through western and central North Carolina.
149 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A trough across the eastern Great Lakes will pull away from the region today. High pressure will briefly be in place for the latter half of today.
High pressure will build over the area this weekend and bring dry weather, light winds and a day to day warming trend. A deep marine layer pushed into the San Joaquin Valley overnight and brought with it cooler temperatures today (5-10 DEG F below yday at most locations), and a stratus deck to the valley and southern Sierra foothills which has persisted into this afternoon across the eastern valley and the southern Sierra foothills although noticable thinning has taken place. WRF indicating an upper ridge pushing into the western CONUS on Saturday which will bring a warming trend to our area as heights and thicknesses rise.
The warmer temperature and moderating trend will continue tonight with milder overnight lows expected but we will remain rain free. Low level ridging under zonal flow aloft on Saturday will lead to continued warm weather across Central AL. However, the front begins to stall just north of the area thanks to the ridging in the Gulf.
A low end tornado threat cannot be ruled out due to locally backed surface flow just north of the Cheyenne Ridge. Saturday should be cooler with breezy northwest to north winds. With the upper trough passing overhead during peak heating, expect scattered shower activity especially over the higher terrain.
/issued 316 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night ):Mid level ridging will build to between 590 and 594 dam in the short term, supporting a further upward trend in heat. Heat will increase under the mid level ridge Saturday afternoon.
317 PM PDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure transitioning out of the area is being replaced a building ridge high pressure. This ridge of high pressure will continue to build during the holiday weekend causing fog and low clouds to hover along and near the coast as temperatures warm inland.
Meanwhile, of more concern is a closed low over eastern Idaho, which is embedded in a trough that extended from Saskatchewan and Manitoba down into Nevada. Storms that initially develop out over the High Plains this afternoon will move eastward overnight. Focus of the low level jet stays well to the west, so the chance of severe storms overnight looks low.
1242 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Today: A mid-level ridge will gradually amplify as it moves east from the Western Plains to the Missouri Valley.
129 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Rain chances return tonight, continuing at times through the holiday weekend with another area of low pressure. The western end is already eroding, and expect this trend to continue as a weak ridging pattern builds in.
332 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure ridge will still be in control overnight, promoting a mostly clear sky with some light winds across the region. Moist, Gulf air will continue to stream into the area from the southwest as the aforementioned upper-ridge over the Gulf scoots off to the southeast. Given the highly unstable airmass (with MLCAPEs at around 2500-3000 J/kg), this feature(s), may be enough to overcome the inhibition that is also progged to be in place.
Today an upper level trof will be over ID and western WY, with westerly flow aloft over CO. Deep layer shear values this afternoon are forecast to be 25-40kts, with the highest values being over El Paso county, and then in the evening shear values are about 40-50kts across all of those areas with the better low level mstr.
With the onshore flow, seeing dewpoints on the increase, in the lower 70s now.
326 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Tonight high pressure will gradually settle southeast over the area with drier air moving south out of Nebraska this evening. Overnight convection that develops in the Western High Plains with southeast upslope flow is forecast to move off the high plains and gradually move east overnight. Lows tonight should cool back into the lower 60s. By Saturday night, the deep mid-level trough will be tracking eastward across the CWA, which will help to push the surface cold front east of the area by late evening.
/Issued 406 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017/ High pressure will be in control of the sensible weather today, but will shift to the southeast tonight. For Saturday, the highest risk of storms should be well to the north across the Mid Atlantic/TN/KY.
Lows will range from the low to mid 60s far inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the coast. Another dry day expected Saturday as upper level ridging maintains its grip on the Gulf and northern Gulf coast. Saturday afternoon is expected to be 4-5 degrees warmer than this afternoon as anomalously warm 850 mb temps move into the region.
Mean troughing will continue over the region through the weekend as a closed upper low spins over southern Canada.
The low moving through Wyoming today will continue to move east, skirting just south of the area tonight. The best chances will be over the higher terrain.
620 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure will move east, south of Nova Scotia tonight.
138 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure will bring a brief reprieve of dry, warmer weather today. Upper low continuing to move off to the east, as high pressure nudges into the region. A warm frontal boundary and upper disturbance will move into the region late tonight/early Saturday, kicking off showers and isolated thunderstorms again, becoming more numerous later in the day Saturday.
237 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A couple of upper level troughs will be crossing the region this weekend. A cold front from the west will cross the local area Memorial Day. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through Sat morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning.
there is a broad ridge over the south central CONUS. Closed low moving into the Great Basin and another over south central Canada with cutoff low over the Northeast CONUS. Stronger wave ejecting out of trough over the Great Basin but not progged into the western Panhandle until 00z. Lows tonight again cool and have gone with cooler guidance again. Shouldn't see a 33 like last night over southern Sheridan county but some areas of the Pine Ridge will possibly see an upper 30. Have gone cooler again with highs in the low to mid 60s. With Strong upper low anchored over northern Minnesota we will see fast northwest flow with schc precipitation as weak waves move through fast northwest flow. Then there will be several backdoor cold fronts dampen the temperatures especially over northern Nebraska.