Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1259 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Isolated showers will move across southeast Illinois for a few hours this morning, but dry weather will be the rule over the rest of central Illinois until later this afternoon when scattered showers and storms develop north of an advancing warm front over west central Illinois. Daytime highs should range from the upper 50s in the north, to the middle 60s in southeast Illinois, but become much warmer on Thursday, reaching to around 80.
1041 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A cold front will deliver the mountains a shot of early season snow today.
150 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A weak developing warm front across the Sandhills has organized an area of light rain early this morning. Thereafter, skies may clear across the Panhandle allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 60s west of highway 83. The temperature forecast today leans on the warmer RAP and HRRR models. Tonight, strong warm air advection develops ahead of an arctic cold front, located near Edmonton Canada at 08z this morning. The arctic cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday.
222 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Mid-upper level ridging extends southwest through the western Atlantic and then across the northern gulf coast states, while troughing extends northward from near the Yucatan Peninsula.
On Thurs, upper disturbance seen on wv imagery south of the Big Bend area (in the base of a broad trof) will make its way further eastward.
Not a lot of lift apparent with this system, but should be sufficient to keep the lower-end chance PoPs in the forecast, mainly across our central Georgia counties where moisture and marginal instability a little more evident. Surface ridging down the lee of the Appalachians also persists keeping the lower-level flow easterly.
258 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week.
An upper low with short wave energy in it will move north across FL this afternoon and evening, then across SE GA Tonight.
306 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Continued warmer than normal through the period but low rain chances return in the south tomorrow afternoon. The ridging surface and aloft that has been dominant over our CWA will weaken tonight and Thursday. Little change in our recent high and low temperatures are expected as temperatures tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s again and temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s again Thursday.
Anticipate cloud cover to gradually diminish across the southern Tennessee Valley and daytime maximum temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s (cooler in the highest elevations of the mountains, of course). AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 81 62 79 63 / 0 0 0 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 80 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 80 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 78 56 77 56 / 0 0 0 20 20.
A ridge of high pressure stretches from the Mid- Atlantic States into Southern Arkansas and North Texas this afternoon while low pressure is located over the Central Plains. A warm front is lifting north across the Plains as well. This will produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms with the highest coverage over Acadiana where moisture will be greater.
Tonight, a trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies and progress east towards the northern Plains. As this trough enters the northern Plains mid to upper-level ascent will increase. This is well supported by ensemble guidance as the 12Z EC/GFS/CMC mean ensemble probabilities keep the highest QPF axis along the southern border. Snow tapers off Thursday evening as high pressure settles in behind the trough.
Conditions will then deteriorate overnight with the return of the low ceilings and with patchy fog development.
We tend to over perform on max temps on sunny days one day ahead of an expected frontal passage, so will employ the high end of the temp guidance envelope, with most locations into the mid 80s by early afternoon.
Meanwhile farther south over MO/western IL, scattered convection has developed on the nose of the low level jet/sfc warm front. Strong fetch of southerly winds pushing northward tonight, riding across a sfc warm front that nudges from the mid mississippi river valley tonight toward the WI/IL border for Thu afternoon. How far north the low and sfc warm front can make it is key for Thu as warm sector could harbor as much as 1000 J/kg.
Comparatively the next 24 hours or so should be quiet, with the slow moving warm front finally lifting north of the forecast area and warm and humid conditions taking over areawide.
High pressure and upper ridging will dominate the weather pattern through Thursday night with southerly flow starting to increase during this period.
A warm front will help to initialize rain showers across South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. The exception will be across the Pine Ridge region where model soundings indicate that some wet snowflakes or isolated freezing drizzle could be possible as surface temperatures drop to near freezing overnight. Little to no snow accumulations are expected, even across the Pine Ridge region where the best location is to see snow, resulting in minimal impacts.
This afternoon through Thursday evening A quick moving cold front will move across the area tonight. Overall, expect between a 20 to 30 degree change from the high today to the high on Thursday.
A warm front will lift across the southeast third or so of the state in the afternoon/evening. If we can realize this there will be severe potential near a strong cold front that will push through the state and be located from Waterloo to east of Creston by 00Z Thursday evening.
236 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A broad upper-level trough covers the northern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over eastern SD, and with low pressure over southeastern WY, winds across our CWA are southeasterly. Wet-bulb zero heights indicate mainly snow as the precipitation type, although the southern edge of precip may be a mix, including freezing rain, especially across south central SD. Northerly winds behind the cold front will be breezy, strongest across northeastern WY where pressure rises will be 3-4 mb/3 hrs. Snow amounts are expected to remain within advisory criteria across the CWA, although the northern Black Hills may approach 6 inches in the higher elevations. Some light icing could be possible south of I-90 with freezing rain.
115 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. However, high clouds currently to our south are also forecast to move northward and overspread much of central and eastern NC overnight, which could potentially limit the amount of fog and shift the nature of the low level saturation to more of a stratus situation. - Noted a slight drying trend in forecast soundings in the H5-7 layer, so perhaps a bit less in the way of deeper cu formation as the low level moisture lifts with heating.
255 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Latest surface analysis shows that warm front extended across southern Missouri into far southern Illinois. This supports keeping highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky. A upper trough will move into the Central Plains by Thursday night.
This pattern will keep overnight temperatures on the warmer side and a steady stream of low level moisture coming into the region.
Aloft we have a weak upper level trough parked over and just west of the Florida Peninsula, while at the surface the island chain is pinched between a low over the Yucatan Peninsula, a high over the eastern U. All of this equals widespread showers with localized flooding as ample moisture in the low levels continues to pump in. Otherwise, some sun is breaking through for at least the Lower Keys. Where it has been raining, temperatures are hovering in the middle 70s, while the Lower Keys are in the lower 80s.
Southerly winds will pick up by mid morning, with the highest winds expected across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. With ample sunshine and strong south winds, temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and could be close to record highs for the date.
The Lower Keys saw much of its rain earlier this morning with amounts generally 1-2 inches with locally up to 3 inches in so spots. Since then, the sun has attempted to shine through the clouds, especially in the Lower Keys. Key West is currently in the lower 80s with Marathon hovering around 80 degrees and upper 80s for the Upper Keys.
1054 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Isolated showers will move across southeast Illinois for a few hours this morning, but dry weather will be the rule over the rest of central Illinois until later this afternoon when scattered showers and storms develop north of an advancing warm front over west central Illinois. Daytime highs should range from the upper 50s in the north, to the middle 60s in southeast Illinois, but become much warmer on Thursday, reaching to around 80.
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Surface warm front lifting north through the I-44 corridor will continue the progression north this evening as leeside trough deepens along the eastern edge of the Rockies. As 925 hpa warm front lifts to the north, expect precipitation to come to an end across the area. South of the warm front, 30-45 knot low level jet develops. Strong south- southwest winds are expected to develop during the day Thursday as warm front lifts into central Iowa and cold front pivots south out of Nebraska. As cold front works into northwest Missouri, additional round of convection is expected to develop, but is dependent on moisture around around 850 hpa. Convection should become outflow dominant as convection organizes into a line as cold front surges southeast.
408 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Surface warm front lifting north through the I-44 corridor will continue the progression north this evening as leeside trough deepens along the eastern edge of the Rockies. As 925 hpa warm front lifts to the north, expect precipitation to come to an end across the area. South of the warm front, 30-45 knot low level jet develops. Strong south- southwest winds are expected to develop during the day Thursday as warm front lifts into central Iowa and cold front pivots south out of Nebraska. As cold front works into northwest Missouri, additional round of convection is expected to develop, but is dependent on moisture around around 850 hpa. Convection should become outflow dominant as convection organizes into a line as cold front surges southeast.
Fog should begin lifting and dissipating from south to north during early Thursday morning with northward advancement of a warm front. Pfahler Latest surface analysis shows that warm front extended across southern Missouri into far southern Illinois. This supports keeping highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky. A upper trough will move into the Central Plains by Thursday night.
551 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A broad upper-level trough covers the northern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over eastern SD, and with low pressure over southeastern WY, winds across our CWA are southeasterly. Wet-bulb zero heights indicate mainly snow as the precipitation type, although the southern edge of precip may be a mix, including freezing rain, especially across south central SD. Northerly winds behind the cold front will be breezy, strongest across northeastern WY where pressure rises will be 3-4 mb/3 hrs. Snow amounts are expected to remain within advisory criteria across the CWA, although the northern Black Hills may approach 6 inches in the higher elevations. Some light icing could be possible south of I-90 with freezing rain.
A cold front moved through this evening accompanied by windy conditions. There are isolated showers in the higher elevations from Baker County to the West Central Mountains which will end overnight. Temperatures near or slightly below freezing will be favored in the wind-sheltered locations of the Treasure Valley and Western Magic Valley where a Freeze Warning is in effect from late tonight through Thursday morning. It will be dry, breezy, and much cooler on Thursday with high temperatures around 10 degrees below normal. Surface winds: W to NW 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening as a cold front passes through the area, continuing overnight near KJER and KTWF.
737 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 The area will continue to be sandwiched between high pressure and low pressure for the next couple of days. A ridge of Atlantic high pressure stretches along the eastern seaboard to the northeastern Gulf coast while a low pressure trough over the Yucatan extending into the Gulf of Mexico will both remain nearly in place through the end of the week. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southwest maintain a tight gradient for the next couple of days with east winds that will be gusty at times.
Warm front has shifted north of the area, and lies across far nwrn OK and sern KS at this time. Comparatively the next 24 hours or so should be quiet, with the slow moving warm front finally lifting north of the forecast area and warm and humid conditions taking over areawide.
605 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 The biggest change for this update was to introduce chances for freezing drizzle mixing with snow along the Highway 12 corridor through the evening, along with areas of fog. Despite the ongoing snowfall and freezing drizzle potential, we are still okay with this start time given ground temperatures are likely still above freezing, and fog being the more dominant visibility restriction. Tonight, a trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies and progress east towards the northern Plains. As this trough enters the northern Plains mid to upper-level ascent will increase. This is well supported by ensemble guidance as the 12Z EC/GFS/CMC mean ensemble probabilities keep the highest QPF axis along the southern border. Snow tapers off Thursday evening as high pressure settles in behind the trough.
A surface and upper ridge are situated over Middle Tennessee this evening, with clear skies and light/calm winds.
723 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Latest surface analysis shows that warm front extended across southern Missouri into far southern Illinois. This supports keeping highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky. A upper trough will move into the Central Plains by Thursday night.
/issued 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/ There is a broad upper level trough over the northern portion of the country. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward over the northern Rocky Mountains/northern Plains on Thursday.
1035 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A cold front that pushed through the region this past afternoon will return as a warm front on Thursday.
Forecast Summary: Increasing chances for rain and drizzle are in the forecast overnight before a strong cold front brings a chance for some thunderstorms on Thursday.
Low temperatures remaining above average, in the low 70s, with mid 70s possible along the coast.
/28/ Continued warmer than normal through the period but low rain chances return in the south tomorrow afternoon. The ridging surface and aloft that has been dominant over our CWA will weaken tonight and Thursday. Little change in our recent high and low temperatures are expected as temperatures tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s again and temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s again Thursday.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Continued warmer than normal through the period but low rain chances return in the south tomorrow afternoon. The ridging surface and aloft that has been dominant over our CWA will weaken tonight and Thursday. Little change in our recent high and low temperatures are expected as temperatures tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s again and temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s again Thursday.
Bermuda high and upper ridging currently over the region is expected to hold really through most of Thu night, before breaking down on Fri. Around sunrise Fri, an upper trough and a weak cold front will be moving out of the plains, with this front expected to reach the MS river around sunset. Early Mon, another cold front is expected to be at our doorstep, which will move across the area Mon afternoon/evening. A surface and upper ridge are situated over Middle Tennessee this evening, with clear skies and light/calm winds.
Solutions indicate the best likelihood for a low stratus layer late tonight will be to our south, over the lower Pecos Valley extending into the Big Country. This pattern will keep overnight temperatures on the warmer side and a steady stream of low level moisture coming into the region.
855 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week.
The warm front that had been working northward through the day has cleared the area to the north and is now located over southern Kansas. Light southerly winds will continue to bring unseasonably warm and humid conditions tonight across all of E OK and NW AR with temps ranging from the lower to upper 60s by sunrise. These lows, assuming they hold since a cold front is expected to move through late tomorrow night, will be close to record high minimums. Chances, however, favor temperatures getting a little cooler than the respective records at sites across E OK and NW AR.
WAA as a result of deep SW flow should allow afternoon temps to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s, a good 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
A few degrees cooler tonight than last night but very little in the way of change expected Thursday. Repeat of the low ceilings/fog again Thursday night.
High temperatures will remain at or just below freezing across much of the CWA, with portions of the area near Lake of the Woods climbing to just above the freezing mark. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower teens for Devils Lake, with near 20 degrees near Fergus Falls. For Friday, CAA follows the exit of the H5 upper low, facilitating early-day high temperatures generally in the middle 20s to low 30s. with weak ridging aloft despite a broad general trough across much of the US and Canada.
Tonight and Thursday Somewhat drier air will arrive tonight before strong overrunning ahead of a northward moving warm front brings precipitation to the area Thursday.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 One last day of warm temps for the work week today as southerly flow ahead of a cold front will aid in keeping 850mb temps above normal with thermal ridge placed over the western half of the forecast area. Tomorrow morning will see a swift moving front blow through much of the forecast area with much cooler temps and gusty NE winds post front.
145 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A warm front push across the area on Thursday. A strong cold frontal passage Friday night will then send temperatures to below normal levels for the weekend. A warm front will lift north across the region on Thursday while producing a few showers. The area will be deep in the warm sector Thursday night with the warm front pushing into Canada. A developing low pressure system over the Mid-West will be the driver of the weather conditions throughout the entirety of this period. Warm dry conditions will prevail Friday as the region will remain underneath the warm sector of the low pressure system.
A ridge of high pressure stretches from the Mid- Atlantic States into Southern Arkansas and North Texas this afternoon while low pressure is located over the Central Plains. A warm front is lifting north across the Plains as well. This will produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms with the highest coverage over Acadiana where moisture will be greater. Friday a low end chance of precip can again be expected as a weak cold front moves in and the short wave moves through. A slightly cooler airmass will filter into the region, but mainly over interior SETX through CenLA.
Southerly winds will pick up by mid morning, with the highest winds expected across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. With ample sunshine and strong south winds, temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and could be close to record highs for the date. The cold front will advance across the area late Thursday night into the early morning hours of Friday.
A strong cold front will be approaching NE OK sites by around the end of this forecast cycle. The warm front that had been working northward through the day has cleared the area to the north and is now located over southern Kansas. Light southerly winds will continue to bring unseasonably warm and humid conditions tonight across all of E OK and NW AR with temps ranging from the lower to upper 60s by sunrise. These lows, assuming they hold since a cold front is expected to move through late tomorrow night, will be close to record high minimums. Chances, however, favor temperatures getting a little cooler than the respective records at sites across E OK and NW AR.
A few degrees cooler tonight than last night but very little in the way of change expected Thursday.
An upper level trough begins to gradually amplify as it moves across the northwestern CONUS making its way to the midwest region through Friday. The upper level ridge located over the southeastern CONUS begins to retreat northward into the western Atlantic. A broad upper level trough will continue to slowly move eastward across the central CONUS into Friday. Temps will remain slightly above normal on Friday with high temps in the lower to mid 80s across the region.
1115 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Updated short term grids next 6-12 hours to refine current cold frontal position and timing going forward plus light precipitation implications. Strong cold front is currently making its way southward across SE WY and West NE Panhandle this evening with strong temperature gradient noted in observations on either side. Temperatures have already fallen to freezing in Converse, Niobrara, and across north Panhandle in Dawes County. today with highs only in the low to mid 30s across most locations, colder in the mountains.
Based on webcams, IR satellite, and regional radar, north central SD probably has the highest snowfall amounts so far this morning. While the heaviest snow will occur through the early morning hours, additional accumulating snow can be expected through this afternoon as the main upper level trough pushes across the region. Sleet may be the dominant P-type, but can not rule out freezing rain as well. Scattered flurries, or perhaps patchy freezing drizzle, will be possible tonight.
A storm system moving south through western Canada will push a dry cold front south across the area later tonight through Thursday. A second, stronger cold front will impact the state this weekend.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this evening, traversing most of the forecast area through the night.
A cold front will then cross the are Friday afternoon and evening A warm front will lift through the region tonight bringing warm conditions for Thursday and Friday. The next chance for rain will arrive later in the day on Friday with the next cold front. Cool conditions return for the weekend behind the cold front. Southerly flow will occur across the area between a high on the Atlantic coast and an approaching cold front.
The next strong cold front pushes into NE OK before midnight and likely clears western AR / SE OK by late Friday morning. Widespread precip is also expected to develop along and behind the cold front tonight through Friday morning.
Dry weather continues through Friday with cooler, more seasonable temperatures.