Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ALSO SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TEMP TREND. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA PREVIOUSLY TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKING UP ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT. WITH A WEAK CENTER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
126 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. MORNING LIKELY STARTS OUT CLOUDY/COOLER WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR EXITING/WEAK SFC REFLECTION.
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH TRANSLATES TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND JUST HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR CONVECTION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE CWA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER US THIS MORNING WITH WV/IR SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PAC NW. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO.
THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 850MB FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S EASILY ATTAINABLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF DES MOINES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SE COAST STRENGTHENS. AND A WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERS IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THE GFS ADVANCES THE UPPER TROF/FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND BUILDS THE RIDGE FURTHER W. FORCING THE UPPER TROF UP INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHUTTING OUR CONVECTION DOWN TO ISOLD AFTERNOON OCCURRENCES.
1050 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES BLOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER AND COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMER THAN NORMAL INLAND DUE THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGTS. MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL MAKE AN EARLY RETURN THIS EVENING TO THE COASTS AND BY MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL OF THE VLYS SAVE THE SANTA CLARITA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN HUMIDITIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/NAM INITIALIZATION DEPICT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WEST CNTRL GULF. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW (NAM/GFS 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) MIGHT SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE MSA TODAY.
WHERE BOTH SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE. AND MUCH COOLER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN PAST DAYS.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SK. WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PACIFIC NW. WITH A WEAKENING TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN SD SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
647 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
626 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THINGS BECOME COMPLICATED AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD. BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT.
At the surface, there was a LOW pressure wave over southeast IA oozing slowly eastward with a synoptic cold front trailing southwestward into northwest MO and a stationary front extending eastward across northern IL and IN. Temps ranged from the upper 60s north of the outflow boundary to the lower 80s in the urban core of STL, with 70s most other locations.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
223 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN PA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS OF SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AREAS PRIMARILY IMPACTED AT THIS TIME WOULD SEEM TO INCLUDE THE LOWER RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALLER BASINS IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE GULF COAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACRS THE CNTL CONUS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THIS AFTN AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA FM THE SE. FCST WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER TO OUR EAST AND FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR SW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MONTANA. WYOMING AND COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MORE APPRECIABLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH SATURDAY FIRST THOUGH AS WE ARE STILL IN A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LOW END CHANCE POPS BEFORE RIDGE FULLY DEVELOPS.
A MID-LEVEL N-S TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DESTABILIZING PATTERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE NAM HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HIGH-RES MODELS IN THE EARLY GOING. WITH SOME COOLER VALUES FOR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIKELY TO GENERATE A CB. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW DESTABILIZING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ENERGY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIED OUT THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY AND NE KY. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WEAKENING.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE WIND. SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S WEST.
Increasing winds, cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. A mainly dry cold front will roll through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SLUG OF HIGH PW AIR WILL ROTATE NW AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MAX HEATING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS.
428 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS SATURDAY MORNING.
1255 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY. AN OFF LAKE WIND WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SE WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM BOTH THE SW AND THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER S/W FROM THE SOUTH.
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS COMPLEX WITH A RIPPLED H5 TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK TO COLORADO. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO BUILD IN. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE NAM/RAP/GFS HOLD ON TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GFS/EC/NAM HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AS A VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE PACNW AND IDAHO.
A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST & PERHAPS EVEN "BACK BUILD" SAT NIGHT. SUCH BEHAVIOR WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT. TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO DECELLERATE THIS MORNING THEN STALL IN AN EAST/WEST MANNER VERY CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
125 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
On Friday a dry cold front will cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. A dry cold front is presently making its way across the Inland Northwest. The main impact will be cooler temperatures Friday but conditions will remain dry with relative humidity values dropping back into the teens. /Kelch 06Z TAFS: A flat ridge of high pressure will keep VFR conditions at TAF sites through 06Z Saturday. Disturbances moving through the flat ridge will allow breezy conditions to occur at various times through the time interval.
AN U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA BOTH CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE. THE U/L RIDGE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A 4K FOOT LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO SWITCH THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE NEXT TROF OF INTEREST OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RH IN PLACE AND THE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND WET GROUND. WITH A NARROW RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. NOT SURE OF THE EXTENT OF ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OR WEAK LIFT. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES STRENGTHEN NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER LATER TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT DID KNOCK OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES OFF DAYTIME HIGHS BUT THESE HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT UNEXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TYPE TROUGH. ALSO OCCURRING OUT WEST IS A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BROADEN AS IS SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE TX/LA BORDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NE OUR OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFT/EVG. THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN WI WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY MAKING EN-ROADS INTO THE TRIAD AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 09Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPEPR 60S- AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT.
The 8 pm EST regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined cold front from Tifton through Apalachicola, moving slowly east- southeastward. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed the associated short wave trough translating northeastward over the Great Lakes. With the mean wind through much of the lower and mid troposphere becoming parallel to the front in our area, it will stall across north FL by Tuesday morning, maintaining scattered showers from Perry southward.
CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE TUE EVENING AHD OF A COLD FRONT. WE ARE BETWEEN TWO LARGE TROUGHS, TO OUR EAST AND WEST WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD PROVIDING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, ALLOWS FOR MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXPECTED FOG AND STRATUS AROUND. WE THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE TIED TO THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
IT ALSO DID A GREAT JOB IN TIMING THE LOWERING VISIBILITIES AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE WESTERN US CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH.
THERE'S STILL SOME CU/STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS EARLIER TEASING SOME OF OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THOSE APPEAR TO BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST (WITH THE UPPER LOW).
THE UPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR REDUCING TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE LOWERING CLOUD BASES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINAL SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE THE MID ROCKIES.
OBS SHOW SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY OVER THE NRN GULF.
552 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE WILL PROVIDE STRONG WESTERLY SFC FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WESTERLY SURFACE WIND REMAINS UP OVERNIGHT OFFSETTING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD OCCUR UNDER EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES. COOLER AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING AND ALSO KEEP WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
/issued 152 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ Yet another warm/dry across the CWFA as downslope winds aid in surface pressure falls across Ern NM and the amplification of a low level thermal ridge. Meanwhile a broad upper low is slowly moving thru the Ern Great Basin and e of the 4-Corners region by 12Z. This upper low will push out a dry Pacific front arriving in the w around 06Z and in the e around 12Z. Despite the downslope winds Tue in will be cooler largely in part to Hypsometric considerations. Thickness will rise Fri along with some MSLP falls, so warmer M50s to M60s. Warmer yet Sat-Sun supported by ensemble + temp departures from 85h-5h. Warm and dry today with RH/s of 15-20 pct across the lower elevations of Trans Pecos/SE NM.
524 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 221 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DRAG LOWER CLOUDS REALLY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DRYING HAS LIMITED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING TO THE MID 60S AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE LOW TO MID 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VRF CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS AS THE STATE TEMPORARILY RESIDES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED BETWEEN TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND WEST. THE FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MANY AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE DOWN TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY INLAND AREAS AND FROST/FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
Tuesday is looking to be a pretty decent day (after morning fog) as weak ridging aloft briefly moves into the region.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN/WINTER WX TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE IS STACKED UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN MO. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BY 18Z TUE WILL BE OVER NW KS/SW NEBRASKA. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND WY. MAY END UP INSERTING SOME FLURRIES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS THU AS SOME ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MAIN UPPER TROF THAT HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND US/CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A SHORT LIVED UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE MAINLY THROUGH TUE WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH MIDDAY TUE THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON TUE.
915 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.
MAIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CONFINED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY MN TO NEILLSVILLE WI. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW MOVE NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF LAKE HURON. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL DRAW IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-35 DEGREE RANGE. INTERIM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PLAN ON COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
555 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.
611 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT TRAILING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.