Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1251 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms extends from near Buffalo WY to near Pine Ridge SD, with another scattered line further south from near Glenrock WY to Alliance NE. A Canadian cold front extends across central MT into northeast ND. A Canadian cold front will drop into northern NE later this afternoon as a fairly strong disturbance tracks from the panhandle into southwest and central NE this afternoon and evening. With cooler Canadian air drawn into the region, highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with partly sunny skies southwest and mostly sunny skies central and northeast.
Hot temperatures will be the main focus over the next several days as an abnormally strong ridge of high pressure sets up to the west across Washington and Oregon. The hottest temperatures will be felt across the lower elevations in central Idaho where temperatures between 100 to 108 will be experienced.
214 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across north-central Wisconsin, to around 60 across east-central Wisconsin.
The main surface and upper level ridge has remained over the southeastern US and is expected to dominate the pattern through the end of the work week. This vertically stacked ridge is keeping the stationary boundary extending from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic states from moving to far south. This is keeping the higher QPF amounts across KY/TN instead of N GA. This ridge is also keeping any storms that do develop over the area from becoming to strong. Temps Tonight and Wednesday night will dip down into the lower 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the NE GA mountains.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of this pattern. Water vapor shows an upper level low in northern Chihuahua slowly moving into the bootheel. Heavy rainfall will again be the main threat with storms first forming over the higher terrain beginning early this afternoon.
1139 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 An upper level trough of low pressure currently south of Hudson Bay, will continue bringing below average temperatures through the short term portion of the forecast. With a fairly cool airmass in place, along with low dew points and light winds, low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 50s.
At the surface, high pressure is sagging southward from Saskatchewan, across eastern Montana and north Dakota, and into South Dakota. Temperatures will be relatively cool overnight as the high pressure system settles into the area.
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Starting the period, the region remains in a cyclonic flow pattern as an upper low continues churning over northern Ontario. High pressure nudging into the area today will center over western ND tonight. Cool conditions will then continue for Thursday through Thursday night, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, as high pressure remains over the area. During the day Thursday, the aforementioned upper low will begin to skedaddle off to the east. Previously mentioned upper low that had been impacting the region will continue moving eastward, while a west CONUS ridge builds. At the surface, flow will become southerly as high pressure previously over the area slides off to the east.
A more potent trough centered across the Great Lakes will pull a cold front across the region on Thursday and eventually interrupt this week's persistent pattern.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure then brings dry weather with seasonable temperatures this weekend. Secondary trough rotates through early Thursday, sufficient for low chance PoPs, primarily midday/afternoon.
Moisture has continued to increase along a mid- to upper-level inverted trough, with satellite indicated PWATs around 2. The inverted trough will move west of the area Thursday; however, moisture will continue to stream into the region Thursday and Thursday night. Heat will continue through the short term though temperatures will be a degree or two cooler than we've been dealing with over the past week or two. Winds could be breezy Thursday afternoon so, while the low level moisture will be fairly high, any fires that develop could rapidly spread.
Better chances for showers and storms may arrive across southern KS Thursday night as we see some weak low level moisture transport taking aim on southern Kansas while we remain within the high PWAT airmass.
1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The mid level wave and associated cold front that produced this past afternoons showers and storms has pushed out of the forecast area. Dew points continue to sit in the low to mid 60s, with the highest dew points along and east of I-29. The upper level low continues to sit over central Canada this morning but will slowly move southeast today. Another cold front tied to the upper low will push through the forecast area throughout the day today. Should see a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon from sufficient diurnal heating, raising highs to the low to mid 80s. Dew points fall in the wake of the front down to the low 50s, keeping humidity to a minimum.
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Cold front was pushing into our se cwa with isolated showers ahead of the front. Tonight: An upper air disturbance rotating around a closed low in the northern Great Lakes region will spread isolated to scattered showers across the area, mainly after midnight.
Needless to say, it will be a coolish day for this time of year with highs from the lower 70s to around 80. Because of that lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
Increasing deep layer moisture over the area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s throughout, and 70 degree dews west of the Alleghenies. Boundary layer moisture pooling ahead of warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley and weak surface heating has led to increasing coverage of showers over the Laurel Highlands and South Central Mountains at mid afternoon. It will be a muggy night, much more uncomfortable for sleeping than the past 2, with mins ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower to mid 70s southeast.
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A localized area of speed and directional convergence in the vicinity of the Lower Keys has sparked a few light showers traversing a few of those island communities. A ridge will continue to build across the Florida Peninsula, with the axis bisecting the Florida-Georgia line.
937 AM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Forecast looks on track today with the low potential of thunderstorms this afternoon and the heatwave continuing well through the week.
We do over 1000 j/kg of surface based cape our Southwest Michigan and with the cold front moving across the area with evening we will have surface convergence. The evening showers (what few there are) are due to a cold front pushing through the area. Thursday morning, the upper trough comes through and that will result in a few scattered showers.
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak low pressure moves across northeast Ohio into western New York through the evening pulling a cold front eastward with it.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of this pattern. Convection has been going since late morning mainly over the higher terrain. A weak upper level low has moved into southwest New Mexico and will continue slowly moving west/northwest over the next couple of days. For the rest of the afternoon expect continued convection mainly over the higher terrain. This evening hi-res guidance shows a line of storms forming from northern Graham County down to the international border and slowly moving westward, likely aided by the upper level low. Models keep the low around central/southern Arizona over the next couple of days.
An upper ridge will continue to support dry and hot conditions today.
Starting the period, the region remains in a cyclonic flow pattern as an upper low continues churning over northern Ontario. High pressure nudging into the area today will center over western ND tonight. Cool conditions will then continue for Thursday through Thursday night, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, as high pressure remains over the area. During the day Thursday, the aforementioned upper low will begin to skedaddle off to the east. Previously mentioned upper low that had been impacting the region will continue moving eastward, while a west CONUS ridge builds. At the surface, flow will become southerly as high pressure previously over the area slides off to the east.
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Secondary cold front with some rain cooled air moving into the northern valley evident on sfc obs with temps around 60 this hour. Temps overnight should drop to fairly chilly readings thanks to the cold and dry air advection we have been getting, down into the low 50s. Cool air mass remains in place and most of the highs should be in the 70s, with maybe a few upper 60s in lakes country where there will be more clouds. Any showers and weak thunderstorms should dissipate quickly Thursday evening and temps will again fall into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
656 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A cold front has established itself in northern Oklahoma with cooler temperatures and light northeast winds behind it.
1011 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 High pressure will prevail through late week. Min temps tonight will similar to, or even a bit above last night since we're starting out warmer and there is decent mixing in the boundary layer. Our latest forecast shows 82F as the low there for tonight. Atlantic high pressure will prevail as troughing becomes more apparent inland.
Otherwise, overnight lows will fall into the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
After that, dry conditions will prevail, as the high pressure ridge axis builds southward towards east central Florida.
605 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 An upper level trough of low pressure currently south of Hudson Bay, will continue bringing below average temperatures through the short term portion of the forecast. With a fairly cool airmass in place, along with low dew points and light winds, low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 50s.
A better chance for thunderstorms will arrive on Thursday as a cold front drops southward through the region. A broad upper level trough resides over the region, with a cold front at the surface near the Illinois River this evening. Will also be keeping an eye on a cold front dropping southeastward toward the Illinois River. As the cold front sags southward, scattered showers/storms will develop on Thursday.
We do have over 1000 j/kg of surface based cape our Southwest Michigan and with the cold front moving across the area with evening we will have surface convergence. The evening showers (what few there are) are due to a cold front pushing through the area. Thursday morning, the upper trough comes through and that will result in a few scattered showers.
An upper level trough of low pressure currently south of Hudson Bay, will continue bringing below average temperatures through the short term portion of the forecast. With a fairly cool airmass in place, along with low dew points and light winds, low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 50s.
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A series of weak upper-level disturbances will pass through the area tonight through Thursday while high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
Cold front was pushing into our se cwa with isolated showers ahead of the front. Tonight: An upper air disturbance rotating around a closed low in the northern Great Lakes region will spread isolated to scattered showers across the area, mainly after midnight.
High pressure will keep things quiet across our area, but a slug of 2"+ PWs associated with a westward moving inverted trough has crept into coastal areas.
High pressure will continue to build toward the West Coast and temperatures will increase as a result.
Surging humidity will result a a much warmer night than those recently, with lows ranging from the mid 60s over the northern mountains, to the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley. A weak cold front is progged to push southeast across the forecast area Thursday. The combination of highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints around 70F should push apparent temps into the low 90s over much of the Susq Valley Thursday afternoon, while cooler/drier air filters into the northwest counties behind the cold front. However, a deepening upstream trough and associated cold front will approach late Thursday night, spreading a renewed chance of showers into the region, mainly over the western counties.
Slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the High Sierra south of Highway 50 at times. Otherwise high pressure will be building over the region into the start of the weekend and will bring hot conditions.
Otherwise, it will be a night of dry/quiet weather as we see gradual height rises from the west (note the strong ridging along the west coast). High pressure building to the west will slowly increase heights over the next couple of days, allowing for temperatures to warm by a few degrees each day.
High temperatures will mostly be in the lower 90s with max heat index values around 100 this afternoon.
Secondary cold front with some rain cooled air moving into the northern valley evident on sfc obs with temps around 60 this hour. Temps overnight should drop to fairly chilly readings thanks to the cold and dry air advection we have been getting, down into the low 50s. Cool air mass remains in place and most of the highs should be in the 70s, with maybe a few upper 60s in lakes country where there will be more clouds. Any showers and weak thunderstorms should dissipate quickly Thursday evening and temps will again fall into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
Although the weak upper-level low shifts west of the area, a very weak mid- level inverted trough and surface moisture convergence could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms under partly cloudy skies. Tonight into Friday the broad mid-level ridge spreads west into the south-central CONUS. Although it appears ridging to take over at 500mb, moisture at 700mb is expected to be greater than today with PWATs remaining around 2" along with a weak inverted trough.
Friday: High pressure will weaken and drift further into the Atlantic. At the same time, the trough to our northwest will dig into the Ohio River Valley. The frontal boundary associated with the low in eastern Canada will move south and east against the Appalachians.
A more potent trough centered across the Great Lakes will pull a cold front across the region on Thursday and eventually interrupt this week's persistent pattern. Precipitation chances should linger through early Friday as the cold front makes its passage, with chances decreasing through Friday night as high pressure builds.
High pressure follows through this weekend with dry and seasonable weather. Weak cold front upstream across WI will slip quickly ewd today as parent upper low releases through James Bay. Otherwise some redevelopment along this feature possible toward this evening as it encounters residual theta-e ridging along a PLD to AOH line. Building sfc ridging follows in wake of this sys Fri. Thereafter stout mid lvl ridge briefly amplifies aloft through the wrn OH valley/srn lakes and signals a return of hot and humid wx to the area mid week. An upper level trof was helping to support scattered showers over northern Indiana early this morning.
323 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Today and tonight: Flat subtropical ridging will extend across the Southern CONUS with a large northern stream longwave trough draped from the Northern Rockies to New England. A few storms within a belt of moisture pooling ahead of the Midwest cold front may clip far northern portions of the area as well.
It's a small threat, but warrants a mention with a couple of small fires being reported now that fuels are seeing more significant drying with this heatwave under the ridge of high pressure.
Dew points will drop to the low 50s and upper 40s this afternoon while highs only reach the 70s to low 80s via weak cold air advection from the northwesterly flow. The cooler temperatures and low humidity will make for a wonderful day today! Clear skies and light winds from the decoupled boundary layer will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, cooling low temperatures down to the low to mid 50s. Mixing that to the surface will result in a bit warmer high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Luckily, temps will be on a downward turn beginning today, with highs in the 80s to near 90 this afternoon and falling back into the low to mid 80s areawide tomorrow. Flooding will continue to be a concern into the weekend, with the highest concern for those that have continued to see rainfall day after day. Consequently, as the shower/thunderstorm chances go down, our highs will begin to rise again back into the low to mid 90s.
Rinse and repeat for Thursday and Friday as high pressure strengthens over the west coast. This will result in light flow aloft over the US Southwest with moisture advection continuing to take place from the south in the lower levels. The high pressure ridge over the northern west coast looks to eventually shift towards the east providing even more southerly flow of moisture into the US Southwest.
A broad trof will remain in place across the eastern half of the country thru the short term period, centered over the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this latitude the flow pattern will be more zonal, and this will make for an interesting scenario as a slow moving cold front drops down into the area. This will bring a much-needed dose of cooler air to the region, along with much higher chances for rainfall.
129 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 High pressure will prevail through late week. Temperatures are quite mild, with most locations still hovering in the low 80s. Atlantic high pressure will prevail as troughing becomes more apparent inland.
Temperatures will not be quite as warm today as slightly cooler air filters southward into western Kansas this afternoon in wake of a weak frontal passage later this morning.
Another very warm day today with highs in the upper 90s inland as the mid-level ridge centered just offshore holds steady. A west to east oriented frontal zone will slip just enough southward with a mid level trough upstairs to warrant at least a couple of days of higher pops and those rainfall amounts.
High pressure ridging centered over the Great Basin northward to the Columbia River Basin will slowly expand east and re-intensify over the weekend.
322 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 A weak cold front has pushed through western NE, as lingering showers or thunderstorms exist to the southwest and south of the forecast area. Some damaging winds also occurred, with the highest wind gust of 81 mph recorded at Imperial last evening. A closed upper low will remain centered over Ontario Canada today. A cooler airmass will reside over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Highs will range in the upper 70s to around 80, slight cooler than the previous forecast. Friday, weak upper ridging develops with a slight increase in moisture across the western Sandhills. 5C/KM across the western half of the FA as highs reach the low to mid 80s.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 91 73 87 / 50 40 80 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 73 87 72 85 / 60 40 80 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 86 70 84 / 70 50 80 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 70 83 68 82 / 60 40 80 40 60.
At the surface, high pressure is sagging southward from Saskatchewan, across eastern Montana and north Dakota, and into South Dakota. Temperatures will be relatively cool overnight as the high pressure system settles into the area. The low pressure system to the north of the Great Lakes will move off to the east on Thursday and Friday, and the upper ridge will shift eastward over the forecast area, bringing a surge of warmer air into the northern plains for the weekend.
Temperatures will settle into the low 70s inland with upper 70s to low 80s at the beaches overnight. A mid and upper level ridge of high pressure that has been in place across the Tennessee Valley will shift east to a position across the southwest Atlantic Ocean as an upper level trough digs across the Ohio Valley through the end of this week. Persistent deep east-southeasterly flow in the mid and upper levels and south to southwesterly flow in the low levels will keep deep moisture in place over the area. The overall coverage should use up the available instability rather quickly on Friday afternoon and this should keep the threat for stronger storms on the lower side.
Showers and storms may encroach upon both our northern and southern borders this afternoon as a cold front slides into southern Oklahoma and the seabreeze becomes active across Southeast Texas. This may change on Friday as the aforementioned cold front slides further south, nearing the Red River by the afternoon hours.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through period, with the ridge axis meandering across the northern half of the state. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s north, and mid 90s to some areas of upper 90s central and south. The dry air moderates a touch for Friday as an upper inverted trough passes by to the south, with isolated chances across the northern half of the area, and scattered chances increasing as you go south.
Upper ridging slowly builds into the weekend, which will bring about an increase in temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 90s by Friday afternoon.
Looking ahead into the new work week, unfortunately the ridge that gave us the hot and humid conditions for what seems like the past month, looks to build back in over the region.
The weak inverted mid and upper level trough will continue inland into the Rio Grande Plains and Mexico this morning and dampen.
An upper ridge over the PacNW will provide the region with record/near record heat through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will exceed 100F in the lower valleys each day.
342 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Summary: Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is expected with cooler than normal temperatures.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The weak inverted 500mb trough yesterday was able to combine with above normal PWAT values to kick up a couple of thunderstorms and a new daily record rainfall for HRL. High pressure builds again today along the lower Texas coast with the best PWAT values hanging offshore.
1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A cold front has established itself in northern Oklahoma with cooler temperatures and light northeast winds behind it.
It's corresponding secondary cold front will sweep through Lower Michigan this morning resulting in scattered showers ahead of the boundary. - Quiet Weekend Ahead - High pressure anchored over the Central Plains will slowly move east into the Great Lakes through the weekend resulting in prolonged dry and quiet weather.
Some drier air arriving behind the leading cold front should result in 24hr minT deltas of >5F (lower) over the NW mtns with lows dropping into the upper 50s. However, a deepening upstream trough and secondary cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes and bring a renewed/increasing chance of showers mainly over the western counties into early Friday morning. The aforementioned cold front #2 will push southeast across the region Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers/tstorms. As the high continues to drift east into the weekend, we expect a nice stretch of weather to close out the month of July with seasonal temperatures and low/comfortable humidity.