Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT SUBSIDES. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW TO INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO NM BY 03/00Z TO HELP INITIATE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A 100KT JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. COLD POCKET ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. A LARGE COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ISSUED 304 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S WAVE WILL BE OF INSUFFICIENT DEPTH TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5KFT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITH PROGRESS.
544 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY.
354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
Mostly sunny skies will begin the work week as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.
1110 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016 GENERAL BROAD LW TROF ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TROF/CLOSED LOWS STIRRING THE POT WITHIN. THE LOW MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FA IS QUITE BROAD AND LOCATIONS OVR THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. UPR RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FOLDING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY. WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. WHILE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE WRN CONUS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
358 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
411 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ridging out to west will slowly translate to central United States. while at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east and one to the west. and the upper flow will transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west approaches.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO SUNDAYS VALUES.
235 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS KEEPING FOG FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION AND SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.
157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
BUT ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. A COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. A TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
143 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS PUT READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITH PROGRESS THIS MORNING.
345 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
315 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK. AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST TODAY.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
306 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016 Warmer temperatures are expected today with a slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 40s.
LONG DURATION ROCKIES RIDGING AND NERN THIRD CONUS TROFFING FROM MID WEEK ON LEADING TO POTENTIALLY ACTIVE MIDWEEK RAFL.
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. COULD DROP TO THE LOW 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHS SHOULD FROM THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB BUT THE MOISTURE IS SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS PRETTY SPARSE.
329 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
423 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY.
344 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Upper low pressure area that has been producing the persistent rainfall across the area is currently near the upper Texas coast. GPS-MET/Satellite derived TPW products indicate drier profile moving north through the central gulf as the low appears to be loosing its identity. Forecast still seems to be on track as trof remains over the area for the next few days as the upper low shears out.
These showers are associated with the closed low that will track northeastward across NorCal today. At 3 am, the center of this low was over the Bay Area and the center should be over our CWA by this afternoon. As the center of the low edges into the Great Basin on Monday, residual moisture will keep a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and daytime highs should be within a similar range as today. except cooler around areas influenced by the Delta Breeze.
but most locations were still in the low and mid 70s. moisture throughout the column will slowly push southeast today as current upper trough axis pushes into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Closer to the surface a weaker refection of the upper trough will also push across the area. Highs today will drop into the low and mid 80s.
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Quiet weather expected in the short term with weak high pressure prevailing across the region. Sunday will be an awesome day with highs again in the lower 80s.
The upper level jet has increased the low-level southerly jet over the region pulling abundant moisture into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 82 64 88 / 70 60 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 79 62 83 / 80 80 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 80 62 85 / 80 80 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 78 59 82 / 80 80 20 10.
349 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Cold front pushes through today with more showers and thunderstorms.
629 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper level ridge currently over the Desert Southwest will provide dry weather across North and Central Texas this week as it develops east across the central U. For today, an elongated trough which stretches roughly from the Texas Coast to Memphis, TN may provide enough lift across the southeast zones to produce occasional showers today. Any showers which form in this area will move southwest around the northern edge of the Gulf Coast trough. Temperatures will be plenty warm today and for the rest of the week for that matter as the upper ridge builds overhead and sunny days transpire.
The main upper ridge over the region is shifting east as northern branch upper low continues to move east across the great lake states. The deepening upper low and associated trough will continue to merge with the southern branch upper level low over southern TX tonight/Sunday morning. The front should make it into northwest GA by Sunday evening with drier/cooler air moving into the area Monday.
233 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
416 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Elongated mid level trof axis stretches from south Texas into Arkansas early this morning. At the surface there was a low pressure area situated just off the Galveston coast. This activity is expected to ev- entually move inland the rest of the morning given the location and rotation associated with the upper low that is still lingering over the state. Models continue to slowly push the upper low further to the SW with time. thereby helping to drag a weak cold front into the area late this afternoon/early tonight. 41 Perhaps one more day of stormy/wet weather for the TAFS as the upper low lingers near SE TX.
340 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Upper ridge aloft dominates across much of the Great Basin with a resultant moderate Northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Water vapor imagery indicating a pronounced wave undercutting the ridge and is now across Southwest Wyoming.
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Patchy fog will be seen across south-central and southeast Oklahoma early this morning ahead of slow moving and very weak cold front.
Warmer temps aloft move in on Sunday with good mixing winds developing once again. So, expecting cooler temps to return on Monday with continued breezy north to northwest winds.
241 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Small short wave trough over southwest Wyoming this morning will continue to move southeast and it should be in northeast New Mexico by late this afternoon or early this evening. This convection may also be aided by an upper level weak short wave trough. The models do spread showers and thunderstorms across most of the Panhandles Monday night and this could happen if this ends up being a legitimate short wave trough.
A low pressure system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening and again on Monday.
Tonight through Sunday As a large high pressure ridge builds over the western U. Breezy and dry conditions combined with the much warmer temperatures will bring down much of the remaining snow pack with elevated levels in rivers and streams.
212 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Northwesterly flow aloft associated with a ridge centered over southern AZ will dominate the weather pattern for the day. Aldrich Upper level ridging over the western CONUS will shift eastward through the week, eventually becoming centered over the plains states by the end of the week.
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Update/Aviation A large area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region will intensify as it tracks northward into Southern Hudson Bay through Monday. Several weaker waves of low pressure pivoting around this system will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms into Monday Evening.
245 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A weak low pressure system moving inland through California will spread cooling inland through Monday.
Also a surface cold front trailed Southwest from the Great Lakes Region into Southwest Arkansas. and South Texas into the Coastal low pressure system. Aloft a long wave trough of low pressure trailed Southwest from the the Great Lakes Region, Southwest across the Lower Mississippi Valley and was phasing with the previous upper level low pressure system over Southeast Texas and along the Upper Texas Coast. For today will keep the higher rain chances to the Southeast of the cold front and in the vicinity of the surface inverted trough. To the West a ridge of high pressure aloft will cover the western half of the country. Temperatures will be warming up with sun and under the influence of building high pressure on the surface and aloft into the work week.
Tonight-Sunday: Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level ridge continuing to dominate the area with mild conditions prevailing over the area this afternoon. Sunday night-Monday: May see some lingering cirrus during the night as the upper level trof builds over the northern Colorado. These showers and thunderstorms may have a little faster movement with even a little better shear, due to the low level flow becoming more east.
High pressure aloft squarely over Utah will maintain the unseasonably warm and dry conditions today. A weak upper low will move slowly through the high pressure early in the week, followed by a return of strong high pressure aloft midweek.
Will continue to mention an isolated showers or perhaps thunder this evening as the mid-lvl trough axis begins to pivot east from the central plains towards Illinois. Slightly cooler air mass in place on Sunday, but with high temps still expected to be in the mid 70s. The bulk of any weather through early to mid week will be largely influenced by the lingering large upper level low near the region, and with periodic waves of energy traversing this flow.
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. However, the warm and humid airmass will continue the threat for scattered rain this morning as the upper trough deepens to our west. This afternoon, the best upper-level support will lie along and east of the upper trough axis coinciding with where guidance shows the best instability. Better chances for thunderstorm development this evening will be along and east of our ridges. The surface cold front which is currently still back in Illinois, will approach later today with additional showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorms. Clouds will be tough to pin down under the upper trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
A weak upper low moving across northern California will result in continued cooling today. A gradual cooling trend is then forecast to continue for much of the week as an upper trough over the Eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West Coast. A weak upper low moving inland across Northern California has been producing thunderstorms across the mountains of Northeast California overnight. This low's primary impact on our weather has been to increase the depth of the marine layer and bring about cooling.
A thick layer of high clouds over the area has been keeping temperatures cooler today. The center of the low moves over the interior by Sunday morning. As the low continues to move closer to the coast this evening we should see the high clouds move northward. The low should bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Sunday. As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than late tonight and Sunday.
A mid/upr trough axis with several vort max/low centers will remain across the CWA through the pd. The northerly boundary layer flow, abundant cloud cvr, scattered pcpn, and wet soils will keep daytime highs generally 2 to 7 degrees cooler than normal.
As long as the trough remains over the region, we will continue to see scattered to numerous showers and storms through the next 24 hours.
432 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper level trough will swing across the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front with it.
351 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 The northern portion of the full latitude upper trough over the Mississippi Valley region rotates through the northeastern U. by this evening while the main upper low center moves north of the Great Lakes region. The weak low center over the Gulf coast region of Texas remains as a weaker elongated trough along the Gulf Coast. As these features of the high amplitude pattern over the U. move slowly eastward, the upper ridge axis over the western U. The smaller upper low center over northern California attempts to cut through the upper upper ridge, making it as far as northeast Nevada by late Monday.
By later in the week, upper ridging will take over, and both daytime and nighttime temperatures will be on the rise.
252 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure will prevail and bring mainly dry weather and much warmer than average temperatures to the central California interior through mid week. A weak low pressure system will move over northern California today and will bring a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada through Monday. The ridge of high pressure responsible for the week-long stretch of above normal temperatures remains over the western United States. This low will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the Sierra between Yosemite and Kings Canyon National Parks this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening.
615 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. This afternoon, the best upper-level support will lie along and east of the upper trough axis coinciding with where guidance shows the best instability. Better chances for thunderstorm development this evening will be along and east of our ridges. The surface cold front which is currently still back in Illinois, will approach later today with additional showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorms. Clouds will be tough to pin down under the upper trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
The upper level jet has increased the low-level southerly jet over the region pulling abundant moisture into the southern Appalachians.
The early morning weather map features the longwave trough extending from central Manitoba through Lake Superior and all the way down to TX. with the low moving off. The effects of this combined with a strong short wave rotating through the upper trough will set off afternoon showers and thunderstorms in a weakly unstable airmass. with the highest over the southwest corner of the forecast area.
A surface analysis early this morning showed low pressure centered near Milwaukee, Wisconsin with a cold front extending southward through Chicago and St Louis. Ahead of these features, a rather moist air mass remained across the lower Ohio Valley with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Better mixing in the low-levels will bring some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially along/west of I-65. Plan on highs in the low 80s. Drier and cooler conditions look to arrive tonight as the upper level flow becomes northwesterly.
546 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 12Z TAF Cycle A northwesterly flow aloft along with upper level support tracking southeast out of the central and southern Rockies will allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the higher terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. /Issued 241 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Small short wave trough over southwest Wyoming this morning will continue to move southeast and it should be in northeast New Mexico by late this afternoon or early this evening. This convection may also be aided by an upper level weak short wave trough. The models do spread showers and thunderstorms across most of the Panhandles Monday night and this could happen if this ends up being a legitimate short wave trough.
641 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper level trough will swing across the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front with it.
Widespread VFR and light surface winds are forecast through 06Z Mon as high pressure remains in control. A mid to upper-level high pressure ridge will dominate our weather pattern tonight through Monday as the axis of this ridge drifts eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Montana Rockies.
This path puts it into the longwave ridge axis, and brings increased heat/moisture and therefore chances for showers and thunderstorms to our CWA. As the low draws closer tomorrow, most of the CWA has at least a slight chance Monday afternoon.
339 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Upper level ridging remains the dominate feature over the region for another 48 hours. Just enough juice being added to the lower levels to allow for the build-up of a few high based showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon.
The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure as well as deep boundary layer mixing have resulted in breezy northwesterly winds over most of the South Dakota plains. Western CONUS ridge hardly moves keeping the CWA under dry northwest flow aloft.
156 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Low pressure will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms today and Monday with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain possible.
655 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Cold front pushes through today with more showers and thunderstorms.