Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Of course bridges and overpasses are always the first sections of roads to develop ice. Overnight lows should drop into the low to mid 20s across the Midsouth.
418 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 The quiet weather pattern with low amplitude ridging aloft persists for another 24 hours, after which time a more active pattern begins starting Monday night lasting through the end of the week.
Frost is expected to be widespread inland with sub-freezing conditions over parts of the Inland Empire and the lower deserts. A weak ridge will drift over the State midweek, pushing temperatures back to average or above, to round out the work week. Cooler weather and more clouds return for the weekend. It will be a chilly night with widespread frost likely several miles inland, and even freezing conditions over the I. and southern deserts, where several hours of subfreezing temperatures are expected. This should temper the lows west of the mountains, but it will remain quite dry far inland, where more freezing temperatures are likely in wind-sheltered valleys, and in the lower deserts.
Confidence in a potentially extreme wind event is growing for portions of the Lower Hells Canyon northward into the Camas Prairie tonight into Monday.
503 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 Ridge will remain over the region tonight into Monday, with the flow aloft transitioning from northwesterly to westerly. Gusty winds will develop over the higher ridges tonight, with a some downslope in the foothills towards 12z, with some gusts to 35 mph. Cold air will remain trapped in the high mountain valleys tonight so will likely dropped 20 to 30 below zero in those areas. It should get warmer even in those cold areas, but they should start to warm up as well.
High pressure will continue to shift east of the area tonight into tomorrow, allowing for increasing southwest flow.
Westerly sfc winds tonight and a building upper ridge will bring in some warmer air starting tonight and continuing into Monday. Will start out with low pressure developing over far eastern South Dakota. As this low strengthens and moves east across southern Minnesota, the gradient intensifies and cold advection kicks in. An inverted trough on the back side of the system, with low level frontogenesis, will help generate some light snow, though generally there isn't much lift despite a deep dendritic growth zone.
250 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 Ridge will remain over the region tonight into Monday, with the flow aloft transitioning from northwesterly to westerly. Gusty winds will develop over the higher ridges tonight, with a some downslope in the foothills towards 12z, with some gusts to 35 mph. Cold air will remain trapped in the high mountain valleys tonight so will likely dropped 20 to 30 below zero in those areas. It should get warmer even in those cold areas, but they should start to warm up as well.
858 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 An upper level low pressure system continues to move eastward through the Tennessee River Valley this evening. Of course bridges and overpasses are always the first sections of roads to develop ice. Overnight lows should drop into the low to mid 20s across the Midsouth.
Closed upper low now nearing the MS river expected to slide just to our south through tonight, pushing well east before sunrise Monday. This upper low has a pretty good moisture source and that plus pretty decent UVV will give a shot of winter pcpn, which has already started across our northwest. Elevated surfaces such as bridges/overpasses may see some slick spots late tonight, and for the morning commute.
High pressure is settling into North Texas which means winds will continue to diminish overnight. The lack of wind will make it feel a little warmer than last night though. Temperatures will continue a steady warmup with highs in the lower 50s. /Issued 244 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022/ /Monday Night and Beyond/ Zonal flow aloft will transition to broad cyclonic flow across the CONUS during the first half of the week, as an upper low deepens across the Northern Plains.
A dry northwest flow aloft over our region will be followed by building high pressure bringing a warming trend with seasonal temperatures returning the second half of the week. A weak trough late in the week could lower temperatures slightly. Mostly clear skies and another freezing night can be expected tonight across most of the Mojave Desert zones with low temperatures generally between 26 and 32 degrees.
Per current observations and short term model trends, increased cloud coverage later this evening as upper level low continues to move south of mid state region but a little more moisture is expected to hang around our area. 00Z KOHX Sounding showing a warm nose around 850mb but a 975mb to 890mb temperature profile below freezing with precipitable water values around 0. Northerly winds will gust upwards to 20-25kts overnight as freezing precipitation falls.
/issued 145 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022/ Upper level flow over the forecast area to back from northwest this afternoon to nearly zonal Monday afternoon as low-amplitude ridging moves overhead with light west surface winds this afternoon and tonight backing to southwest and increasing mostly to 15 to 20 mph range Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the snow field across the forecast area has already been shrinking underneath full sun despite temperatures still at or just below the freezing mark. Overall, the cooler side of MOS guidance is preferred. Rapidly increasing heights and thicknesses combined with increasing southwest winds under full sun suggest high temperatures about 12 degrees warmer than this afternoon's.
Strong cold front in association with this sys will drive first arctic intrusion of the year swd across the lakes/OH valley with temps falling through the 20s. Low level thermal trough deepens in wake of this sys Thu as heights aloft sharpen in response to secondary wave digging into the OH valley. Also, southwest winds return for the daytime as warm advection ensues on the back side of the high.
Westerly winds on the backside of the trough have helped boost temps into the double digits below zero, and warm air advection will help keep readings steady or slowly rising through the night. Either way, expect warmer temperatures.
Temperatures will be the only forecast challenge, as the lower troposphere progressively warms through Tuesday, while snowmelt holds that warming back. Off the snow, lower 50s are expected Monday afternoon adjacent to Oklahoma, but the rest of the CWA will struggle through the lower to mid 40s.
We'll have high pressure to our north ridging south into Northern New York and Vermont today. Then on Tuesday the flow will turn to southerly with another ridge of high pressure passing south of our region. Southerly flow and partly sunny skies, especially in Vermont, will mean temperatures return to just slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight. On Tuesday, an upper level wave and cold front move into the area. Behind the cold front, especially Tuesday night, there will be a surge of cold air that plunges into the area.
232 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 A couple of relatively milder (not as cold days) before another surge of Arctic air by mid-week! Rather broad/flat ridging aloft will move over the Plains today. Meanwhile, the next upper trof will move into the Pacific Northwest before sliding eastward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Lee side troughing will result in increasing low level southerly flow today into Tuesday across central and eastern Kansas.
The arctic front lagged behind the main cold front and is still transiting the area tonight, just crossing the I-65 corridor.
1252 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Lingering snow showers early this morning will dissipate as high pressure begins to build into the area for the early part of the week.
149 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 Arctic front will slide back into the region this week, as eastern Pac ridging ensues, forcing the downstream trough east. Strong cold front Tues will support adv or even warning level winds for much of the SD plains given strong CAA, pressure rises, esp in the lee of the BH where terrain squeezing will enhanced flow. Have decided to issue a high wind watch for the plains just east of the BH where the highest confidence for warning levels are.
Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show the 500mb trough east of the area with mid-tropospheric ridging over the Rockies. Warming trend continues for Tuesday, with high temperatures a few degrees above seasonable in the low to mid 30s.
234 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Progressive low amplitude ridging across western CONUS will gradually flatten over the next day or so becoming zonal with a northwest pitch. As a result, temperatures will not plummet despite mostly clear skies, and will actually be slightly warmer than normal over the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle, which generally has our lower overnight temperatures. With afternoon relative humidity values falling into the lower teens, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible.
This should translate to high temperatures returning above freezing today, but, likely remaining in the 30s. The moderating trend continues/improves a little Tuesday, as the high shifts east and low level southerlies return. 850 MB temps warm about another 5C, but some height falls start to work in from the north as our next weather system takes shape in the High Plains.
low temps in the teens are forecast with some of the normal cold locations in the low teens.
Have kept the warmer overnight temperatures from the previous shift, with overnight lows in the upper 50s along and north of I-4, with low to mid 60s to the south.
Temperatures will be the only forecast challenge, as the lower troposphere progressively warms through Tuesday, while snowmelt holds that warming back. Off the snow, lower 50s are expected Monday afternoon adjacent to Oklahoma, but the rest of the CWA will struggle through the lower to mid 40s. We should have good diurnal heating before the front as 850 mb temps will be around 10-11 (C) before slightly falling after the cooler air moves in.
A dry northwest flow aloft over our region will be followed by building high pressure bringing a warming trend with seasonal temperatures returning the second half of the week. A weak trough late in the week could lower temperatures slightly. Even though skies should remain clear and winds will remain light through Monday morning across much of southern Nevada, southeast California, and Arizona- the 00Z sounding this evening compared to 00Z yesterday shows a slightly warmer temperature profile today. Current temperature trends aross the region are also running about 2-6 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. All that to say it will still be cold but we are trending warmer than last night.
The shallow colder air held on the longest along the lower Arkansas River Valley farther east, with La Junta and Lamar remaining in the 20s. High temps for the high valleys are forecast to warm into the lower 30s to around 40F, so there will be a reduction in the snowfield there as well under sunny skies.
Frost is expected to be widespread inland with sub-freezing conditions over parts of the Inland Empire and the lower deserts. A weak ridge will drift over the State midweek, pushing temperatures back to average or above, to round out the work week. Cooler weather and more clouds return for the weekend. Wind sheltered valleys will easily get near the freezing mark down into the 20s as you start your morning on Monday.
This ridge will begin departing the region tonight allowing a reprieve from another freeze, although a few locales in our NE counties could still see a brief window of freezing temps. Along with milder temps by Tuesday thanks to southerly winds, modified Gulf moisture will be tugged back into the region, but this moisture will be too shallow and paltry for anything more than a few clouds even as a minor trough passes through in zonal flow.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Surface warm front has moved through the area this morning, being followed closely by an upper level ridge. However this ridge is going to be a quick moving one, getting out of here Monday night and being followed by a quick moving trough. Snowfall amounts look pretty light but many locations could see a quick inch or two before this trough exits the area by Tuesday evening.
/Tonight/ The back edge of the stratocu field has exited the region to the E as of mid-evening, with a crystal clear sky noted in its wake behind the strong upper trough to the E that has ushered in the arctic air mass currently in place. The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over the Srn Plains, with this ridging expected to gradually ease SE into SW AR/E TX by daybreak Monday. These temps should remain just above Hard Freeze Warning criteria, before readings finally climb back above freezing by mid to late morning Monday.
A dry northwest flow aloft over our region will be followed by building high pressure bringing a warming trend with seasonal temperatures returning the second half of the week. A weak trough late in the week could lower temperatures slightly.
132 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures expected today and Tuesday, with southerly winds on Tuesday gusting up to 35 mph at times.
03/06Z TAF CYCLE Last of the low clouds have dcrsd over the ern part of the FA. with some warmer conditions expected. Lows Tue morning will be warmer as well.
1027 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 The quiet weather pattern with low amplitude ridging aloft persists for another 24 hours, after which time a more active pattern begins starting Monday night lasting through the end of the week.
/issued 858 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022/ An upper level low pressure system continues to move eastward through the Tennessee River Valley this evening. Of course bridges and overpasses are always the first sections of roads to develop ice. Overnight lows should drop into the low to mid 20s across the Midsouth.
233 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Upper low located over northern Ga at this time.
1212 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday.
Surface observations showing patchy fog developing and with temperatures at or slightly below freezing, that could potentially be freezing fog. Wind speeds are sustained enough that I do not anticipate this being a wide spread freezing fog event, but in some areas freezing fog may actually be occuring, especially in locations were higher winds are usually shaded from.
High pressure moving from Texas this morning to Tennessee this evening and to the Virginias by dawn Tuesday will keep our weather cool and quiet. Locations that received snow overnight should see some sun today and have temperatures lift slightly above freezing this afternoon. Lows tonight will generally be in the low-mid 20s, with upper teens in the eastern valleys.
A deep closed low is located just to the west centered near Memphis TN. Strong diffluent flow aloft to the east of this low is leading to strong syntopic lift. This low is forecast to deepen this evening and into the overnight hours as the upper jet from the southern Appalachians into New England increases to around 180 kts. Overall, a solid setup for the low to continue to deepen and strengthen. High pressure will be building eastward on Monday, with northerly flow keeping cold air flowing into the Tennessee Valley. This will mean overnight low temps Monday night in the low-to-mid 20s.
322 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing the cold front moving southeast through the Big Bend of Florida, with a narrow band of showers passing along the pre-frontal trough passing through the Tampa Bay area. These showers will continue to work south and gradually dissipate through the next few hours, with breezy northwest and north winds behind the front bringing in much cooler and drier air today and tonight.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure will move across srn Canada. High temps for Mon will rebound to the lower 20s. Gehring (Issued 354 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022) Tonight and Monday: High pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes Region through tonight. Dry conditions, clear skies, and calm winds will continue Monday as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward toward the New England States. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday due to weak warm air advection and southwest flow kicking in on the back side of the exiting high pressure. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s. The fog development will be largely dependent on the how much moisture we can get from the fresh snowpack, warmer temperatures and shallow moisture advection from the southerly flow.
Subsidence behind the passing trough in Texas and a 1033 mb high has led to widespread sunshine across southwest Kansas. Tonight as the high continues to move to the northeast the lower level flow will be out of the southwest both at the surface and 850 mb levels.
Dry conditions on Tuesday and some temperature moderation with high pressure in control.
Northerly winds will gust upwards to 20-25kts overnight as freezing precipitation falls.
The low level winds will become south-southwest Mon afternoon, possibly bringing any lingering lake clouds that release off Lake Mi across portions of Se Mi, mainly north of PTK. Temperatures slowly fell through a good part of the day, but have since stabilized/risen with some sunshine and with the low level cold advection being exhausted.
With some lingering upper level ridging following the trough that moved through over the weekend, skies will be clear on Monday as temperatures will climb back near seasonable normal values.
430 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 Arctic front will slide back into the region this week, as eastern Pac ridging ensues, forcing the downstream trough east. Strong cold front Tues will support adv or even warning level winds for much of the SD plains given strong CAA, pressure rises, esp in the lee of the BH where terrain squeezing will enhanced flow. Have decided to issue a high wind watch for the plains just east of the BH where the highest confidence for warning levels are.
Despite passage of a batch of high level clouds during a portion of the night, enough radiational cooling still occurs to allow overnight temperatures to drop back below freezing for many, with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
510 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Current surface analysis depicts a strengthening cyclone across the Mid-Atlantic, which is bringing many locations with their first taste of snowfall for the season today. A frontal boundary extends southwestward from this center of low pressure. Although most available convective- allowing model (CAM) guidance seems to suggest this line of showers will weaken as the large- scale forcing for ascent wanes over the relatively warm Florida Keys coastal waters, should the line survive, it would be progged to reach the Lower Keys in the late morning hours and the Upper Keys in the early afternoon. A ridge building in behind the front will quickly clock winds around to the northeast tonight, and the overall pressure gradient will largely collapse by Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A closed low over the Gulf of Alaska will slowly open and pivot onshore over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday with its strong associated frontal system passing through NorCal.
We are expecting 3-5" in the South Hills region and a Trace to 4" elsewhere, with locally higher amounts possible along higher peaks and ridgelines.
Snow across the southeastern ridges will end this morning as the supporting upper trough/jet streak shift eastward. High pressure wl maintain dry weather on Tuesday, but with temperature moderation as flow backs to the west aloft, and southwest in the boundary layer.
306 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 It's been quite an eventful past 6-9 hours, as a deep upper low has passed across the region, bringing widespread precipitation in the form of moderate to heavy snow over much of the area.
648 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 A strong area of low pressure will move across the region this morning, causing showers and possible thunderstorms early this morning, along with windy conditions through late morning. The low will move to our NE, with clearing skies and cooler and drier air filtering into the region later today and tonight.
For today, a weak H5 ridge is over the forecast area but with a few pockets of upward motion passing through that flow. Clouds lower and thicken overnight and wind stays up as the low approaches with light snow breaking out over the northwest half of the area by daybreak Tuesday. With a 1046MB high pressing in from the northwest behind the low, and strong cold air advection, gusty winds will become a problem for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds where the higher snow amounts are expected, the northeast, support gusts close to 35 mph.
Slightly warmer this morning as high clouds have moved but still quite cold with temps in the single digits to teens. Southerly flow increases this afternoon out ahead the the upper low/trough working onshore. Warmer today and tomorrow due to better increased winds result in better mixing and removing cold dome over the region. Bit warmer on Tuesday with highs in the 30s to low 40s.
Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning will range from the upper singles to the low 20s.
Winds will continue to ramp up through the afternoon as a strong Pacific cold front moves inland. The combination of the snow and wind will create areas of blowing and drifting snow, mainly in the higher elevations. The precip will diminish somewhat on Tuesday, but will increase and become steadier once again Tuesday night as a warm front lifts northward and stalls over the area.
A cold front continues southward through the area as of around 930am, producing a line of showers, which is currently clearing far southern portions of the Treasure Coast. The front will push south of the forecast area Atlantic waters through around 11am, with significant clearing behind it, as high pressure builds into the local area. Much cooler temperatures this afternoon compared to the last several days, as highs struggle to reach 70 from around Melbourne northward and low 70s along and inland from the Treasure Coast. Hazardous boating conditions today, with northwest winds up to 20-25kts this morning behind the cold front passage. Breezy to windy conditions will develop across the area this morning and afternoon behind a strong cold front.
253 AM PST Mon Jan 3 2022 A return of onshore flow will bring cooler high temperatures to the coast and valleys today while the mountains and deserts continue to warm slowly today and Tuesday.
I wouldn't be surprised if a locale or two across our Big Country counties of the far west CWA to see a reading into the lower 60s. Low level warm advection continues tonight into Tuesday, though remaining very dry with low humidity thanks to the western Gulf of Mexico being scoured of any appreciable moisture by the recent arctic cold front. South winds around 10 mph and slight higher surface dew point temperatures will be keep low temperatures Tuesday morning at or just below freezing. A mostly sunny, breezy, and warmer conditions are on tap for your Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday, a broad trough will begin taking shape across the CONUS, with flow aloft transitioning to northwesterly as a short wave moves from the Northern Rockies into the Plains, well to the north of the region. A surface lee trough will result in a shift to downsloping westerly flow across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with a subtly tightening pressure gradient across western areas yielding potential for high winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. In addition to the potential for windy conditions in the mountains, Tuesday looks to be significantly warmer due to downslope warming, with highs currently forecast to reach the upper 60s to middle 70s for most, once again about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
These strong winds are forming in a deeply mixed layer south of an approaching arctic cold front. West winds 30 to 40 mph are in place across wrn Nebraska Tuesday and the High Wind Watch may need to be extended south to include areas south of I-80.