Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
712 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Light to calm winds have taken hold across the area this morning as high pressure slowly builds in.
The forecast remains on track with an upper low just off the coast becoming a little stronger tonight. A weak low pressure system off the Southern California coast will keep high temperatures a few degrees below average through Monday with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog extending into portions of the inland valleys.
/Issued 407 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ Ridging aloft stretching across the Gulf coast states into Texas strengthens through this evening as it shifts eastward. This drop in temperature is not expected to impact the high temperatures Monday. Atwell The upper ridge will dominate our forecast area into the middle of the upcoming week with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms across north and central GA.
1027 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures range from the mid 80s along most of the Lower Keys to 75 to 80 elsewhere. A weak tropical wave on the extreme western periphery of a large mid and upper level low will track westward into the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. In wake of this low level confluence and large scale ascent, drier air will filter into our area along with an increasing easterly wind.
Northwest Arkansas will be a tad bit cooler with highs in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will drop south Tues/Wed period with increasing chances for thunderstorms as it approaches. Behind the front, cooler and drier weather will end out the week.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have flared up across southern Utah this morning as the upper level low off southern Cal is turning the flow more southerly across that part of the state. The forecast of keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in across the southern mountains this afternoon looks good as the 700-500 theta-e ridge is the strongest there by 00z with some perpendicular flow into it. The Uintas and Bookcliffs have a secondary maxima in the theta-e ridge which should support some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as well. The only update this morning was to lower the PoPs at Green River and Price this morning as this is where there is a theta-e trough.
Cooling will continue early this week as an upper trough of low pressure becomes nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific. A nearly stationary upper level closed low will remain along the Central Coast through early to mid week. Cooler temperatures will continue this week with comfortable day time highs expected most places with only far inland locations experiencing warm to hot temperatures. Medium range forecasts indicate some strengthening of an upper level high over the Desert Southwest and California. SFO Bridge Approach. Moderate northwesterly winds will continue over the northern outer waters through tonight as high pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific.
The extent and transparency of this high cloud should not change much today and will likely only have a very negligible impact on temperatures. The latest short term high resolution models seem to want to focus the area of Texas Panhandle into far northwest OK, as well as far northwestern Kansas where weak lee trough in the low levels will exist.
728 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring one more day of fair weather then chances for showers and thunderstorms increase early in the week.
Upper low over southwest New Mexico this morning to lift northeast dragging weak trough into western part of area this afternoon and evening. /issued 427 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ Upper ridge center over TX with High pressure extending from AZ eastward to the Atlantic. An upper trough over CA is expected to develop into a cut off low before weakening later in the week and rolling over the top of the ridge. After it passes the ridge will build back across the Western US. Looking at a few more days of near normal high temperatures in the mid 90s before a weak cold front sags down into the area midweek.
The subtropical ridge axis is currently centered over south central Texas according to 20/00Z upper air observations as well as recent water vapor satellite imagery. The above mentioned ridge axis will remain intact today, bringing another round of above normal temperatures and dry weather to the region.
In addition, upper low spinning over the northeastern Gulf will help to supress convection a bit today as well.
Impacts on temps due to cloud cover blow-off will likely be significant over western half of region leading to slightly cooler temps in the Illinois River Valley east to I-55. Eastern forecast areas will likely see plenty of sun and heat index values reaching into the lower 90s. Models consistent in building ridge over western U. Monday and digging a 500mb trough southward into the midwest.
1126 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area through Monday. However, upper ridging over the region will help keep moisture shallow and limit the thunderstorm chanceS. Morning analysis revealed the lingering stationary trough boundary along the coast east of the forecast area which figures to be the main focus for any convection today. There will be areas of more cloudiness and possibly thunderstorms but believe these will be limited because of upper ridging. Greater cloudiness and thunderstorm chances may be in the southeast section closer to deeper moisture and a weakness in the h5 ridge near the coast. Expect highs in the lower 90s with maximum heat index values around 100. The thunderstorm chance should further diminish Monday night with the loss of heating and upper ridging.
Otherwise, ridging will produce VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Surface ridging will also keep winds light and variable through the forecast period.
1035 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Tweaked PoPs through 16z across southern IN and into Hancock, Breckinridge, and Meade counties in KY to account for rogue complex of showers moving ESE through Dubois and Perry IN.
Temps will be slightly cooler (5-10 degrees) today for areas to the east of the Laramie Range. All models show the highest mid to high lvl RH values through midday over the western Nebraska Panhandle.
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Cold front continues to move eastward across the region and has just recently moved through ABR. There is some MUCAPE and effective shear to work with, but the bulk of the higher values are moving eastward with the front, with more stable air back to the west.
The greatest coverage of thunderstorms should occur east to south of Tucson, but the lower deserts will not be completely left out.
High pressure near Bermuda ridges west over the region.
At the surface, high pressure is moving into the northern plains behind the cold front, and a low sits over central SD. Low-level jet ahead of an approaching trough will result in increased instability across northeastern WY and portions of western SD overnight, and the cap may weaken enough across northwestern SD for a few thunderstorms to develop; however, CAMs are not in agreement about that.
Clear skies across Middle Tennessee will allow for another warm summer day with forecast highs mainly in the low 90s, with upper 80s across the plateau. High pressure at multiple levels will combine with a dry atmosphere during this taf period.
/issued 427 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ Upper ridge center over TX with High pressure extending from AZ eastward to the Atlantic. An upper trough over CA is expected to develop into a cut off low before weakening later in the week and rolling over the top of the ridge. After it passes the ridge will build back across the Western US. Looking at a few more days of near normal high temperatures in the mid 90s before a weak cold front sags down into the area midweek.
A weak area of low pressure moving into southwest New Mexico early this morning is also helping to push moisture northward and is providing some forcing to the eastern and central zones.
1033 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure with fair weather will build across the area through Monday.
Tonight should be mainly dry as convection dissipates and the lower atmosphere stabilizes.
1010 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Overall, another day influenced by the upper ridge is in store, with temps ramping up into the mid and upper 90s. /issued 424 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ An enlongated upper ridge extending from Texas into the Southeast United States should provide enough subsidence to suppress most convective development today. However, an upper low moving west along the southern periphery of the ridge in the Northern Gulf of Mexico may provide enough onshore flow for at least a few isolated showers or thunderstorms during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The exception might be increased convective coverage as the upper low in the Gulf will be closer to the area.
/issued 424 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ An enlongated upper ridge extending from Texas into the Southeast United States should provide enough subsidence to suppress most convective development today. However, an upper low moving west along the southern periphery of the ridge in the Northern Gulf of Mexico may provide enough onshore flow for at least a few isolated showers or thunderstorms during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The exception might be increased convective coverage as the upper low in the Gulf will be closer to the area.
Upper low spinning in SE Gulf this morning to move further into the Central Gulf through Sunday.
High pressure will build over the region Monday giving warm temperatures and dry conditions with only patchy morning fog in the interior; clouds will be more extensive along the immediate coastline.
947 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region today, promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions. A rather strong 850 mb and 500mb ridge will still be in place across much of the southeast U.
The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary located just north of the Ohio River, amidst high pressure generally sprawled from the eastern Ohio Valley down through the southern Appalachians. Aloft, a short wave trough is pulling away across New England, with rising heights across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley. Warming temperatures and mostly clear skies will be on tap across eastern Kentucky through the short term, as an upper level ridge builds in across the southeastern CONUS. Strong upper level ridging in place will begin to break down Monday night as a longwave trough pushes into the Ohio Valley. This trough will remain in place, deepening, through the remainder of the work week.
1038 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will push east of the area today.
Dry weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure moves across the area.
Aim shooting for readings ranging from the low 90s across far eastern Colorado to the mid 90s up to 102 across the Republican river valley of southwest Nebraska to Norton and Graham counties of Kansas. Will have to closely monitor NAM/GFS boundary layer moisture behind the cold front which by midnight is flirting with our Nebraska counties. Low temperatures in the low 60s to around 70. large area of moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves into the area from the southwest during the morning hours ahead of an upper trough which is forecast to move in from the northwest during the afternoon. Otherwise we should see an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and night as the upper trough and moisture move through.
911 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The 12Z sounding this morning showed significant dry air above 700mb, but slightly cooler around 500mb at -6C. The freezing level remains high above 16. Highs today are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s at the beaches.
The storms developed underneath some broad diffluence on the western flank of the upper high, and a west-east axis of deep moisture convergence, and a westward-moving outflow boundary. For the remainder of Sunday, there may be a slight w-nw expansion of the upper ridge centered over east Texas, but deep moisture will continue to reside across the area, although some drying may work in from the south.
Strong high pressure will weaken and move east the next few days allowing for some minor cooling each day. Strong high pressure over the region is providing another very hot day across the lower elevations. The ridge has weakened a bit and this is evident in 24 hour temperature trends down slightly. The ridge will weaken the next few days as an upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.
To the South the lower end of the long outflow boundary continued to produce showers over lower parts of Deep East and Southeast Texas.
1037 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Surface wise, a weak western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central portion of the Florida peninsula. Outside of any localized heavy rainfall, low temperatures will hover in the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies.
ranging from the mid 80s near the Tennessee River to the low 90s in the Delta.
However, cloud cover should slowly dwindle as the more dry air filters into the Rio Grande Valley over the next 24 hours as high pressure across the Desert Southwest shifts closer. /issued 251 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States extending into southwest Texas has provided some subsidence and drier air across portions of south-central Texas and the Rio Grande plains this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer Mon afternoon than they have been the past couple of days with less cloud cover and low rain chances.
/issued 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/ 700 MB trough across eastern Oklahoma contributing to scattered thunderstorm development across much of east Texas and north Louisiana. 8 inches and temperatures in the lower 90s. High temperatures throughout the forecast period to average in the lower 90s each day with lows in the mid 70s. At the same time, northwest flow aloft will weaken in favor of strengthening ridge of high pressure. However, thunderstorms chances to increase late in the work week as upper-ridge retrogrades westward and a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Waves moving around an upper high combined with a meandering front will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana through much of the work week.
Surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley. As a low pressure system tracks across the lower Great Lakes, breezy southwest winds 20 to 25 mph are forecast to develop by Monday afternoon. Monday night will be mild and muggy with lows staying in the low 70s for most locations.
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Issued at 257 CDT SUN JUL 9 2017 Heat remains the primary concern through the next several days as ridging over the western CONUS shifts eastward, sending a ~594 dm high over the Plains through midweek.
The GFS/ECMWF deterministic generally consistent at 500-mb with flattening the ridge while moving it EWD from the Four Corners region to the SRN/CNTRL Plains, and developing/retrograding a weak trough over the CWA/MSA.
Tonight into tomorrow morning, a cold front reinforced by outflow from the aforementioned storms will move southward across the area for tomorrow. There will probably be a pretty large temperature spread across our CWA, with highs struggling to reach the low 90s near Ord, and blasting into the low 100s in Kansas.
there is a cold front that approaches North GA by the end of the work week as the southern edge of NW flow aloft dips south.
/issued 335 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis high pressure centered over the ern Gulf maintaining a moist onshore flow across the region. The region looks to remain in a rather persistent pattern through the early part of the coming week with the forecast area lingering on the edge of weak mid/upper-level troffing or zonal flow for the next several days. Afternoon highs will remain mostly seasonal with temps peaking in the lower/mid 90s. Perhaps a break is in store for the nrn portions of the area by late week as ridging over the wrn CONUS tries building ewd through the srn Plains.
1116 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a high located over southern Utah with a ridge extending north into the Yukon and north slope of Alaska. A closed low was located off the southern coast of Alaska. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over northern portions of Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Mid- Atlantic states and Carolinas. Across western and north central Nebraska, winds west of the trough took on more of a westerly component, while winds along and east of the trough were nearly calm to light southerly. Based on the guidance trends, I did go ahead and lower temps slightly from the inherited forecast, however, they were kept in the higher end of guidance, especially in the south where the forecast frontal position is uncertain.
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas west of the Missouri River as Rh values have fallen into the low teens and winds have started to gust in the 25-30mph range. Dry high pressure sinking in from south central Canada overnight will slowly exit across Minnesota Monday afternoon.
Should see some cooler temperatures and less humid conditions tonight.
Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge centered over the Four Corners Region. A minor short wave trough in the northwest flow around the ridge over the Northern Plains has lead to some storm activity there. Over the Central High Plains closer to the ridge water vapor showed a dry air mass so there has been no storm activity. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the forecast area from the north, but will be pushed to the east prior to entering the forecast area.
Overnight lows will gradually fall into the lower 70s.
The latest visible satellite imagery shows the bulk of the cloudiness over the Upper Mississippi Valley in the warm air advection zone/mid-level omega/area north of the surface warm front. low pressure was over North Dakota with a 45kt h85 jet. ridging will develop over the Western High Plains aloft, however cooling will take place at h85 and at the surface.
820 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 The old stationary front over southeastern NC will dissipate tonight, allowing the higher humidities to return Monday and Monday night. Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic will provide southwest flow over the Carolinas through the rest of the week. This is certainly the sign the old front is already washing out and even coming back north - with the higher dew points knocking on the Triangle's door overnight. In the north and west, one more night of lower humidity and slightly below normal lows for July (mid 60s) before the higher dew points arrive Monday night. High temps will be similar to today or perhaps a degree or 2 warmer.
501 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the Northern Rockies, with short wave activity noted from western SD westward to far eastern ID. At the surface, trof has moved through all but our far south central SD zones. Temps are very hot early this afternoon give excellent mixing and thermal ridge overhead. Temps will be slightly cooler on Monday, with another ridge topping short wave bringing a few storms late in the day. Upper ridge then expected to flatten through midweek, although temps will still remain well above average. Upper ridge then expected to rebuild and possibly bring more very hot weather to the region by the end of the week/weekend. Slightly cooler wx expected through mid week, although temps will still remain well above average.
540 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Upper ridge axis extends from Four Corners region to the northern Rockies. Mid/upper level moisture and weak disturbances rotating up and over the ridge across Wyoming have triggered isolated to scattered afternoon high-based convection. The other story has been the hot temperatures, especially across the high plains. The latest short range model guidance progs the upper ridge to the west to weaken as it shifts east across the Front Range and high plains. Monday's high temperatures will be somewhat cooler compared to today, with upper 80s-mid 90s.
High pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will be around 90 to the lower 90s each day this coming week with heat index values from 95 to 101. This is the result of upper level ridging moving over the center of the country.
IR and visible satellite images are revealing storm intensity on the rise as cloud top temperatures reach the lower -60C to lower -70C. Overnight lows will range from the lower 70s across the Hill Country to the mid 70s elsewhere.
1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Temperatures were warmer aloft today but strong heating and boundary collisions produced clusters of strong storms containing intense rainfall and frequent lightning strikes over Lake and western Volusia counties. The diurnal convection over land has ended but expect an increase in showers/storms over the atlc overnight which may cross portions of the Treasure coast as the low level ridge axis begins to lift northward.
Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the Northern Rockies, with short wave activity noted from western SD westward to far eastern ID. At the surface, trof has moved through all but our far south central SD zones. Temps are very hot early this afternoon give excellent mixing and thermal ridge overhead. Temps will be slightly cooler on Monday, with another ridge topping short wave bringing a few storms late in the day. Upper ridge then expected to flatten through midweek, although temps will still remain well above average. Upper ridge then expected to rebuild and possibly bring more very hot weather to the region by the end of the week/weekend.
Pronounced ridge and Desert Southwest anticyclone with monsoonal moisture in place to the west. Over the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS, a broad trough remains in place with several lobes of energy working around the periphery. Over northeastern KS, a fairly strong cap remains in place this afternoon with a well mixed boundary layer up to the H7 level which is helping temps reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. May hold for subsequent shift, but with the H85 thermal ridge building over the area with temps of around 25C, expecting temps to reach around 100 in place with dewpoints still in the upper 60s and low 70s. An elongated mid level ridge will be located across the southern US at the beginning of the period, with mainly zonal mid-level flow over the northern US.
On Monday, a broad weakness will persist in the mid level height fields as a weak trough moves in from the east.
Otherwise, high pressure northeast and east of the area means we have a favorable pattern for an average early season thunderstorm forecast with a deeper fetch of moisture now available.
Strong high pressure aloft will gradually weaken early in the week. High pressure aloft remains centered over south- central and southeast Utah this evening. Temperatures across northern Utah will be down 2-6 degrees from where they are today due to a slightly cooler airmass and the likelihood of more clouds.
An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners Region on Monday. Look for lows tonight near seasonal normals in the lower 70s. Highs on Monday will be a degree or two warmer in the afternoon. (Monday Night through next Sunday) The subtropical ridge weakens to some extent over the southwestern states early this week and expands east across much of the southern CONUS, merging with the Bermuda High over the southeastern states.