Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A slow moving low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area into the early portion of the upcoming weekend.
These should continue to develop and spread northeast through the night as lift from a short wave trough moves in. Bufkit soundings show decently curved hodographs, at least through the lowest 3km.
946 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure over the Carolinas through the week with hot and mainly dry weather.
High pressure will keep any convection very isold Thursday aftn and eve and most likely limited to limited sea breeze in lgt southerly flow.
612 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure over the Carolinas through the week with hot and mainly dry weather.
1007 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure over the Carolinas through the week with hot and mainly dry weather.
A mid and upper level trough axis will remain camped out across the western portion of the taf area through the period.
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Complex of storms over western and middle Tennessee just east of weak upper trough over the Mid Mississippi Valley.
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A strong U/L ridge persists over the Florida peninsula creating large scale subsidence and well above normal temperatures. Skies across west central and southwest Florida will become mostly clear after midnight with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s.
Strongest storms have exited NE CO and the few showers that tried to develop and move off the higher terrain this evening have collapsed.
The area of low pressure influencing shower development remains just off the Oregon coast tomorrow, with an anticipated return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
850 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure to the northwest has directed dry air into the forecast area.
Bufkit soundings show decently curved hodographs, at least through the lowest 3km.
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the central CONUS and is forecast to remain in place through Thursday. Highs will remain in the 90s with dewpoints forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s, pushing afternoon heat indicies into the low 100s. This large ridge of high pressure will help to maintain mostly dry weather through the extended with a few showers and storms possible across northern portions of the forecast area, as disturbances ripple through the upper flow.
Showers and thunderstorms continue along the boundary across the offshore Gulf waters well to the northwest of Key West, and have recently developed just the west of Key West as well, but only scattered lighter showers moved across parts of the Lower Keys as the boundary passed through. Earlier this evening, a weak cloud line managed to produce a few showers and thunderstorms just north of the Lower Keys, but those quickly dissipated with little if any rainfall over land areas. Aloft, lower/mid level ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico is producing N/NE steering flow over Florida, which has aided SW motion of mainland convection into the western parts of our area during the past couple of days.
736 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure to the northwest has directed dry air into the forecast area.
Should see another batch of high clouds move across the area this evening from convection in the high plains. Thereafter, a retrograding weak/broad upper low is expected to track across Texas. This low, or its remnants (i.
so even warmer temperatures expected Friday afternoon.
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Today the much anticipated large amplitude upper level ridge will start to build into the region leading to our hottest stretch of the season.
/Issued 410 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ Not much to talk about in the fcst period as the regime sees little change with the main influencing feature being a weak upper low meandering along the northern Gulf states somewhat trapped by a broad ridge.
The surface warm front appeared to be near the MN border this morning will remain north of Iowa for the next several days. This is especially evident at the 925 mb layer and it is associated with the low-level jet which should be centered over eastern Nebraska tonight. Thunderstorms moving east across the plains this evening should be enhanced by the low-level jet and theta-e advection as they move into northwest Iowa. The low-level jet should kick-in again Thursday night.
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure remains dominant over the region, with the high centered over the TN Valley and ridging swwd through the wrn Gulf Region. Water vapor imagery shows ridging over far wrn TX beginning to build ewd while a weak inverted trof is noted developing over the wrn Caribbean/far sern Gulf. Mostly dry conditions are expected across the area today with the ridge briefly building over the area. and in fact, temps today look to be a couple degrees above normal with highs in the lower 90s all but the immediate coastline. Rain chances begin to climb on Friday as low-level moisture further increases while ridging aloft gets replaced by a wwd- moving inverted trof approaching from the ern Gulf, along with a sfc reflection.
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS, but a persistent MCS moved into the Ohio River Valley last night. A deep ridge builds over the center of the country, and some short waves ripple through the flow to the north and northeast. There are some slight chances in the extended, particularly in the north and northeast, closer to the apex of the ridge. The low pops more or less reflecting the waves that sneak a little closer to Central IL.
1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the central CONUS and is forecast to remain in place through Thursday. Highs will remain in the 90s with dewpoints forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s, pushing afternoon heat indicies into the low 100s. This large ridge of high pressure will help to maintain mostly dry weather through the extended with a few showers and storms possible across northern portions of the forecast area, as disturbances ripple through the upper flow.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances should then continue through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather is expected this morning under low level ridging.
More typical summertime convection is expected for Friday, as an upper level ridge now over the southern plains moves towards the northwest, away from the mid south.
242 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the central CONUS, with an area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and associated trough dropping down the west coast. This is creating moist southwest flow from the southwest US into the high plains. At the surface, a stationary and weak frontal boundary extends from central WY to along the SD/NE state line, with an area of low pressure along the boundary over east central WY. For today, the upper ridge will continue to build with warming temperatures and increasing heights. Could see something over the higher Black Hills or Bear Lodge Mountains, but should be short lived.
With the area under deep-layer ridging, we expect any convection that does get going in the late afternoon to be dissipated with an hour or two after sunset. In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure will be over the Southeast. On Friday the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in eastern portions of the region as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes farther west due to easterly flow in the lower levels. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
MVFR ceilings associated with this low level moisture advection are also expected to continue spreading into all of the South Central Texas terminals, lingering through mid-morning. The main change with the 06Z issuance is the introduction of VCSH/VCTS during the daytime hours as moist air remains in place and convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s are reached. 00Z soundings from DRT and FWD indicated weak mid-level flow between 700-400 MB (coincident with a weak trough axis oriented northwest to southeast across the state) and this will result in another day of slow-moving SHRA/TSRA with heavy rain producing brief IFR/MVFR visibilities should terminal impacts occur.
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An upper level ridge will build north across the central and northern Plains late this week providing for abundant sun and above normal high temperatures. The ridge axis is largely atop or east of the forecast area by late afternoon today, thus southwesterly flow should largely prevail.
1218 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday. Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 90s at most locations inland from the beaches.
300 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A ridge of high pressure will continue to influence the weather of eastern Kentucky today through tomorrow. However, the latest model data is suggesting that the ridge axis may shift a bit to our southeast today, which may allow for diurnally driven shower and storm activity across the area. Tonights lows should be in the low to mid 60s. Either way increasing temperatures and moisture will give way to a more unstable airmass through the period and lead to stretches of afternoon convection mainly on the higher terrain initially.
The best deep layer shear will exist along the border with North Dakota, and this is where the highest opportunity may exist for hail/wind, especially considering mid level temps are also cooler over this area. Once the convection moves out later this morning, am looking at fairly tranquil conditions through Friday as mid level thermal ridge builds across the forecast area. But, with such warm air aloft, feel the cooler guidance is probably too cool so stayed within shooting distance of model blend. Hot and humid conditions remain with a high amplitude 500mb ridge setting up from NM through the Central and Northern Plains up through south central Canada.
An upper level ridge will be found above the plains throughout the short term. An upper level ridge will be found above the plains throughout the short term.
Upper level ridge continues to build across South Texas with low level moisture advection across the region on southeast surface flow.
A slow moving low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area into the early portion of the upcoming weekend. A mean longwave trough remains in place over the West Coast and eastern Pacific this evening around a closed low centered over the PacNW coast.
Models are hinting that as the complex works east, it may try to work south across southwest Minnesota following the thermal ridge.
High pressure in place over southern Appalachia will provide warm. Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure in place from West Virginia to Georgia. ridging was in place across the plains states. The ridge is expected to strengthen overnight and relatively weak flow will remain in place aloft.
This is hinted in some of the higher resolution models although the source region has not yet seen any development as of 0530Z. /issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ We will be heading into a quieter weather period as we see out the week and head into the weekend as upper level high pressure centered over Northern Mexico today expands to the north-northeast and as the center of the ridge shifts northward to a position over New Mexico late in the week.
222 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure over the Carolinas through the week with hot and mainly dry weather.
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather is expected through the morning as instability has diminished, and low level ridging builds in. An upper level low will drop southeast from Hudson Bay to southern Quebec through the period.
346 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 So far a quiet start to the day as convection coming off the high plains has dissipated before making it to the local area. expect sunny skies and summerlike temperatures across the region as an upper level ridge begins to amplify across the plains. A hot and dry start to the extended periods is expected across the region as high pressure aloft will help to suppress convection and promoted above normal temperatures across the region. expect an approaching upper level trough to begin to flatten the upper level ridge.
/issued 751 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ A strong U/L ridge persists over the Florida peninsula creating large scale subsidence and well above normal temperatures. Skies across west central and southwest Florida will become mostly clear after midnight with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s.
Dry, southerly breezes continue across the region this evening thanks to a nearly stationary closed upper low rotating along PacNW coastline. The Southwest US is currently sitting between a West Coast trough and an area of high pressure to the east.
models back to showing a small meso upper low forming near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers today with a slow drift south through the Memphis metro by tomorrow afternoon. Downdraft CAPE is to surpass 1000 j/kg and the LCL to freezing level depth 12kft over north Mississippi in the Marginal Risk area. The low will start to drift southwest towards the ARKLAMISS late tomorrow night lowering rain chances across the northern counties.
The overall weather pattern remains the same today, with an upper closed low over the OR and WA coast, and an upper ridge of high pressure centered over TX and NM. Warming southwest flow aloft will persist across the Four Corners region, pushing high temps this aftn into the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to 100F for the plains. Activity will diminish by midnight, and clearing skies overnight will help temps cool to lows in the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.
430 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The forecast area will remain sandwiched between low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the southern Plains. Triple digits are possible Friday in the lower desert canyons of southeast Utah.
911 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure will be overhead with dry conditions until at least Friday afternoon. Another frontal boundary and area of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms starting late Friday, persisting through the weekend. High pressure will dominate the near term portion of the forecast. Although instability becomes quite high by late Friday afternoon, upper ridging should cap things off and keep us mostly dry through the day.
Streamer showers are possible again overnight but seem less likely as upper level ridge brings in drier and slightly more stable atmosphere. Upper level ridge continues to build across South Texas with low level moisture advection across the region on southeast surface flow.
Dry weather is expected this morning under low level ridging.
332 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A weak cold front was passing through our CWA from west to east during the night with clouds and sprinkles, and a wind-shift to west/northwest. Today will therefore be a little cooler than yesterday.
and Friday An upper trough moving across the Dakotas at 09UTC was supporting a large convective complex that will be moving into the forecast area later today and tonight. Highs today will be mostly in the 80s, except cooler along the Lake Michigan shore where there will be a lake breeze.
750 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A dying cold front will drift south of the Mason/Dixon Line early today. An area of high pressure building southeast from the Great Lakes will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today.
614 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS, but a persistent MCS moved into the Ohio River Valley last night. A deep ridge builds over the center of the country, and some short waves ripple through the flow to the north and northeast. There are some slight chances in the extended, particularly in the north and northeast, closer to the apex of the ridge. The low pops more or less reflecting the waves that sneak a little closer to Central IL.
611 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A dying cold front will drift south of the Mason/Dixon Line early today. An area of high pressure building southeast from the Great Lakes will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today.
540 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The forecast area will remain sandwiched between low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the southern Plains. Triple digits are possible Friday in the lower desert canyons of southeast Utah.
605 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Today the much anticipated large amplitude upper level ridge will start to build into the region leading to our hottest stretch of the season.
More cloud cover across southeast MO and southwest IL will result in slightly cooler high temperatures both today and Friday. Otherwise the combination of the mid-upper level ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast into MO, and southerly surface winds will lead to warm and humid conditions, particularly across northeast and central MO where high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. GKS The warm, humid summertime weather pattern will continue with mid- upper level ridging over the central US coupled with persistent southerly surface winds.
High pressure will be north northeast of the region this period.
/issued 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ An overall quiet pattern will dominate the forecast with upper ridging remaining overhead. This will allow for continued highs in the low/mid 90s across the FA with higher temps occurring across the Rolling Plains. The main exception will be each afternoon and evening across the southwestern Texas Panhandle along the edge of the upper high. Even this possibility will be dependent upon the position of the upper high. Currently chances are on the low side as the upper high, or rather its axis, is progged to position itself over our western zones further limiting rain chances.
630 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure overhead with dry conditions until at least Friday afternoon. Another frontal boundary and area of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms late Friday and the unsettled conditions persist through the weekend. High pressure will dominate the near term portion of the forecast. Although instability becomes quite high by late Friday afternoon, upper ridging should cap things off and keep us mostly dry through the day.
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 So far a quiet start to the day as convection coming off the high plains has dissipated before making it to the local area. expect sunny skies and summerlike temperatures across the region as an upper level ridge begins to amplify across the plains. A hot and dry start to the extended periods is expected across the region as high pressure aloft will help to suppress convection and promoted above normal temperatures across the region. expect an approaching upper level trough to begin to flatten the upper level ridge.
Friday still looking to be the hottest day so far this year, with ridge deflecting storm track to the north and west. H7 temps still pointing to most basins reaching the lower 90s.
A slow moving low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend.
This is associated with an upper low that continues to slowly pivot through AL and MS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 91 69 / 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 68 89 67 / 20 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 89 67 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 86 65 / 10 10 20 20.
Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Mid-level heights and thicknesses will rise over the next few days resulting in temperatures rising to warmer than average levels this afternoon through the weekend even with the tempering affect of some cloud cover. The heat will not be exceptional at 3-5 degrees warmer than normal but hot enough, especially with increasing dewpoints, that heat illness issues may become more problematic. The benefit to the high building over and east of the area is that monsoon moisture will gradually be directed into southern Arizona.
441 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the central CONUS, with an area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and associated trough dropping down the west coast. This is creating moist southwest flow from the southwest US into the high plains. At the surface, a stationary and weak frontal boundary extends from central WY to along the SD/NE state line, with an area of low pressure along the boundary over east central WY. For today, the upper ridge will continue to build with warming temperatures and increasing heights. Could see something over the higher Black Hills or Bear Lodge Mountains, but should be short lived.
Low pressure positioned to the west leaves north- central Idaho and western Montana with southwesterly flow and persistent disturbance passages.
IR is showing a weak upper level trough to the northeast of the area which is where short range guidance is showing an MCS forming and moving southwest during the day over Mississippi. For Friday, rain chances increase somewhat on our eastern zones as an inverted trough off to our east retrogrades westward which will provide the vertical ascent needed in our warm, moist atmosphere to produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Max temps each day will reach the lower 90s while the lows tonight should be in the lower 70s.
411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An overall quiet pattern will dominate the forecast with upper ridging remaining overhead. This will allow for continued highs in the low/mid 90s across the FA with higher temps occurring across the Rolling Plains. The main exception will be each afternoon and evening across the southwestern Texas Panhandle along the edge of the upper high. Even this possibility will be dependent upon the position of the upper high. Currently chances are on the low side as the upper high, or rather its axis, is progged to position itself over our western zones further limiting rain chances.
Latest morning observations and visible satellite imagery are reporting partly cloudy skies and temps in the low to mid 80's, which is 3-5 degrees cooler than yesterday morning at this same time. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90's with heat indices ranging from 98-102 degrees. High pressure that has been in the Gulf of Mexico slips northward today while a trough of low pressure moves over southern Florida. As the wave moves farther west into the gulf, high pressure builds to the northeast of Florida keeping an easterly flow over the area. This will produce sea breeze showers and storms over the east coast early afternoon and will move westward through the day with the highest coverage over the coastal waters late afternoon through the evening hours.
Upper trough has settled over the region with an unseasonably deep closed mid/upper low centered over northwest Oregon. IR fog product indicates most of the low cloudiness remains along the coast, but a few patches may develop along the foothills to the east of Sacramento. Current temps range from the 40s to lower 50s in the mountains to the mid 50s to lower 60s across the Central Valley, around 5-10 degrees cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago. Today is expected to see the coolest temperatures of the week (well below average for late-June), then gradual warming is forecast into the weekend as the trough along the West Coast weakens.
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An upper level ridge will build north across the central and northern Plains late this week providing for abundant sun and above normal high temperatures. The ridge axis is largely atop or east of the forecast area by late afternoon today, thus southwesterly flow should largely prevail.