Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 79 69 81 68 / 60 70 70 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 82 69 80 68 / 50 60 50 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 81 67 80 66 / 50 50 50 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 83 65 81 63 / 40 40 40 50 10.
509 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the plains. Guidance has been trending slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly begins moving to the east.
Monday through the work week the upper level high remains near or north of the 4-corners area, a favorable location for activity with deep easterly flow and plenty of moisture. Late in the week into the weekend there is some indication that there could be a trough over the area which would serve as a focus for convection if it becomes reality.
424 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Hazy skies are thinning today as the high exits the region. A southerly moving trough up in Canada will makes its way south over the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front associated with the trough will affect the Northland late afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.
654 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Hazy skies are thinning today as the high exits the region. A southerly moving trough up in Canada will makes its way south over the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front associated with the trough will affect the Northland late afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Patterson (Issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will dominate this period.
521 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and near-normal temperature through Monday. The days max heating with a bit of an assist from the ridges has allowed some showers to develop in the eastern portions. As surface ridging becomes more established tonight, a clearing sky and light wind should allow for fog development, perhaps locally dense in some valley locations. An increase in 850mb temperatures and decent mixing point to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
1009 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week.
Southerly flow ahead of the low level circulation continues to stream deep moisture into western KY and southwestern IN. Dew point values from Jasper IN to Elizabethtown to London and westward were in the low/mid 70s with PWAT values between 1. Over northeastern KY this afternoon (east of I-65/north of I-64) dew point values were drier in the low/mid 60s with upper 50s around Cincinnati. Temperatures due to continued cloud cover will likely stay in the low 80s. Early week pattern will see the amplified upper ridge over the Intermountain West balanced out by a trof digging into eastern Canada.
Over central IN, expect a clear sky overnight with mild overnight low temps in the lower 60s over our northern counties and mid 60s over southern counties. An upper trough is still slowly exiting to the southeast. By tomorrow, the upper trough will stall over the Tennessee Valley, continuing to keep rain out of the area through the short term. as a heat ridge continues over the Rockies and Plains.
943 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and near-normal temperature through Monday. As surface ridging becomes more established tonight, a clearing sky and light wind should allow for fog development, perhaps locally dense in some valley locations. An increase in 850mb temperatures and decent mixing point to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
1056 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The region is under a cooler, less humid northwest flow this evening. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, brining a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Fair weather is expected the rest of the night with lingering clouds exiting the eastern part of the forecast area, as high pressure and drier air mass work in from the west. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by Monday afternoon with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
High pressure centered over the Desert SW has been shifting west today. Most of this moisture is in the mid- levels, so thunderstorms could have limited rainfall, especially in the lower elevations. However, there could still be an isolated cell or two in the lower elevations. High pressure shifts east again by late Monday, ending the thunderstorm potential in our area. Onshore flow will continue through the week as the weak trough remains situated just off of the coast.
The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the plains. Guidance has been trending slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly begins moving to the east.
An upper trough is still slowly exiting to the southeast. By tomorrow, the upper trough will stall over the Tennessee Valley, continuing to keep rain out of the area through the short term. as a heat ridge continues over the Rockies and Plains.
High pressure should remain centered over the Four Corners Region, maintaining monsoonal flow over Arizona.
642 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 A weak cold front stalls near the Virginia - North Carolina border tonight into Monday. An upper level trough lingers over the region through midweek. Expect rapid convective development across srn VA/nrn NC over the next few hrs as the southward moving cold front (ivof RIC) merges with northward moving outflow boundaries aided by a weak disturbance move east across the area.
710 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 A broad region of high pressure extends from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes tonight. * None Quiet weather continues through the rest of the weekend with high pressure firmly in place over lower MI. Expect hazy skies to continue into the beginning of next work week before flow trajectories change behind a cold front. The thermal trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes this weekend finally pushes east tonight allowing 850mb temps to climb by 2-4C.
817 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 High pressure will be east southeast of the region Tonight.
This should produce cooler temperatures tomorrow along with better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Upper high remains anchored over WY/UT/CO region this afternoon.
Onshore flow will dominate through the week ahead as high pressure aloft remains in control over the interior West with a trough of low pressure to the northwest of the region.
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week.
/Issued 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ Axis of deepest moisture continues to be pushed to the south and this trend will become more pronounced after this evening as the western CONUS ridge continues to amplify, while a mid level trough drops southward along it's eastern edge. At the same time, the low level flow will break down with the more favorable regime focusing on the Arklatex overnight into Monday. The trough axis will slide to our south over the next couple of days with a surge of relatively dry air pushing into much of the area, with rain chances becoming more confined to southern areas during the week. Temperatures will start below normal but gradually trend toward more typical mid/late July conditions by the latter half of the week as upper ridge expands across the plains.
1053 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The region is under a cooler, less humid northwest flow this evening. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, brining a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Fair weather is expected the rest of the night with lingering clouds exiting the eastern part of the forecast area, as high pressure and drier air mass work in from the west. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by Monday afternoon with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
129 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A cold front will drop into the the eastern Carolinas and stall Monday and Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms.
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will offer dry conditions through the middle of the week. A dome of high pressure centered in the upper Midwest will influence the weather across the Ohio Valley. While weak northerly flow is present, dewpoints will be in the lower 60s.
244 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to central and southeast IL for the next several days. 2 am surface analysis indicated little change from 24 hours ago, as 1023 mb high pressure stretched from WI to northern IA. South of the ridge, persistent albeit light northeast low level flow prevailed locally. Aloft, the 500 mb trof axis that has affected the region the past few days is finally shifting south into southern IL. Northwest upper level flow will shuttle weak disturbances through the lower Great Lakes, keeping precip chances to our northeast. This will nudge dewpoints up into the lower 70s, and with highs around 90F Thu/Fri, peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F are possible.
The slow moving cold front in central and east Arkansas will move into south Arkansas Monday. Tonight Through Tuesday The regional synoptic pattern was showing a latitudinally-oriented upper trough located to our north with a weak surface cold front exiting the forecast area to the southeast. Through the forecast period, the upper trough to our north will slowly sag southward shunting upper dynamics ahead of the trough to the south as well. In the second half of the forecast period with further progression of the upper trough, the flow aloft will become northeasterly and this will cause drier air to work into the forecast area.
357 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An upper-level trough, possibly aiding a few early morning showers in southeastern MO, will continue to progress slowly southward today over the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier conditions are anticipated by Tuesday as large- scale subsidence continues with an upper-level ridge over the Rocky Mountains becoming increasingly positively tilted into the Midwest. This evolution will also force the low-level anticyclone that is maintaining easterly to northeasterly flow across the region further southward near the CWA by Tuesday. However, temps will be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday with slightly greater solar insolation forecast.
Nighttime microphysics is depicting partly cloudy skies and temperatures are in the lower 80s across the island chain this morning. Another beautiful day looks to be on tap for the Florida Keys to start off the workweek! Ridging will remain in control of our weather through Tuesday.
120 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Aviation - Cold front Tuesday may develop scattered storms, mainly east - Occasional storminess later this week -- Cold front Tuesday may develop scattered storms, mainly east -- After a warm and dry Monday, our focus turns to an approaching cold front on Tuesday.
1158 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level ridge building across Wyoming with very strong subsidence dominating the Nebraska panhandle. This upper level ridge will continue to dominate the area through Monday and keep us dry and warm with light winds.
A few isolated to scattered showers and storms around, mostly the higher terrain, east of the Divide.
The rest of the week will feature dry conditions and gradually increasing temperatures as the upper ridge slowly shifts eastward.
242 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Fairly mundane forecast over the next several days with upper level ridging off to our west dominating the pattern. Temperatures at 850 mb rise by a degree or two each day and thus expect afternoon highs to be about 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday and similarly for Tuesday.
With the extensive cloudiness and showers overnight low temperatures will be in the low 70s. An upper low over the northern states will lift northeast on MOnday leaving an elongated trough through the Appalachians into the lower MS Valley. Models indicate a cut-off low developing over the Deep South. Similar conditions expected for Tuesday with the cold front draped over the area. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s both days. Mean upper trough will reside over the eastern states through the weekend. Global models (with ensemble member support) depict a cut- off low over the lower MS Valley drifting west into TX.
A few isolated showers/storms are not completely out of the question with daytime heating and troughing aloft, but the forecast area should remain largely dry today with relatively light winds. Western CONUS ridging will begin broaden into the Plains, with our region being set up into the back side of a mean trough. Given the northern origins of these systems and the lingering trough keeping flow from the south cut off, precipitation totals will remain rather subdued overall.
257 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 As of 08Z Monday morning, the persistent midlevel ridge axis continues to reside across the Rockies with northerly flow across eastern KS. Midlevel water vapor reveals an elongated trough axis from the northeast US through eastern KS. At the surface, a broad ridge axis resides from western KS through the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, the elongated midlevel trough axis will progress south and southeast through the afternoon. Beyond today, the pattern turns warm and dry as the midlevel ridge axis across the Rockies shifts into the central Plains.
Otherwise, w-e upper trough axis is moving southward very slowly.
120 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will extend into the area through Tuesday.
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along the cold front across Oklahoma and Arkansas, which is slowly moving south towards the area.
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A weak, nearly stationary cold front gradually drifts southeast today allowing for showers and storms in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Morning lows ranging from the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE are expected. With the cloud cover and convection, expect much cooler than average highs today in SE VA/NE NC with temps in the upper 70s to around 80F. Another cold front moves in from the north Wed with again only a slight chance of a few isolated showers/storm. Drier Thurs with high pressure settling in. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tues night and in the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE Wed and Thurs night.
Several weak disturbances tracking around periphery of H5 ridge anchored over northwest Colorado.
233 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A weak cold front stalls near the Virginia - North Carolina border tonight into Monday. An upper level trough lingers over the region through midweek.
The wet and stormy pattern continues through the near term period as an upper level trough remains parked over the area. Monday will see slightly higher rain coverages than today, around 80-90%, due to an area of low pressure over the southeast approaching the forecast area. Higher chances continue on Tuesday as an upper low develops over the southeast and maintains the unsettled pattern. Slow storm motions, cell mergers, and the high PWAT airmass will continue to favor torrential downpours with high rainfall rates in excess of 2-3"/hr, and there will be potential for localized flash flooding of urban and low lying areas and along small creeks and streams each day.
With the frontal boundary expected to continue to be in/near the fa today, showers and storms will remain possible into this evening, mainly in southern/western portions of the fa with the highest chances along and south of the Red River. Low temperatures tonight (Monday night) will be cooler with temperatures falling into the 60s across most of the fa.
241 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week - Stormy Weekend Possible - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week Synoptic pattern shows Western CONUS upper high with downstream trough axis across the Northeast prevailing this week.
For tonight, a weak disturbance from the north and an approaching weak cold front will bring additional rain chances to mainly the Big Country later tonight into Monday morning. Expect another warm night, with lows in the low to mid 70s, and highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
1238 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Hazy skies are thinning today as the high exits the region. A southerly moving trough up in Canada will makes its way south over the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front associated with the trough will affect the Northland late afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across the region today.
With the exception of a few storms offshore, a relatively calm and muggy start to the work week as ridge of high pressure dominates over the area. This pattern shouldn't change much through mid week, except winds will become a little more southerly as high pressure slowly moves south. As the ridge axis travels south the other half o the week and into the weekend as a mid level trough approaches the East Coast. High pressure continues to dominate through much of the week. PErsistent high pressure over the region will keep south to southeasterly winds over the Peninsula through most the week.
E-W oriented midlevel ridge will continue to move south across the area. Anticipate highs in the low/mid 80s (just a touch lower than previous and based on latest concensus guidance). Lows tonight in the low 60s again. Highs on Tue will be a few degrees warmer than today and made no significant changes to previous forecast. Highs will be a touch cooler on Wed but still low 80s.
254 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper level trof will continue to sink south into the Tennessee Valley today into tonight. Low pressure is analyzed near Memphis early this morning, with a weak boundary stretching east across Tennessee. With lift from the upper trof, weak low-level convergence, and abundant moisture, showers and storms are likely today across TN. By Tuesday, large scale pattern across the country will feature an amplified upper level ridge over the Intermountain West while broad troughing impacts the eastern CONUS. This should help to keep dewpoints from being oppressive (+70 degrees) like they can be this time of year, while the general proximity of the high pressure will also promote subsidence aloft in our region to limit any rain/storm chances.
Increasing westerly WAA off the High Plains thermal ridge should push highs slightly warmer for Monday, reaching the upper 80s in most locales. While Monday's temperatures will be near record highs around the Duluth vicinity, the combination of our warmer climatology and a 4-5 degree gradient in the H850 temperatures south of this warm nose will mean that we will only see high temperatures readings just a hair above average for this time of year. As an upper tropospheric PV lobe crests the upstream ridge axis and dives southeastward Monday night, a zonal cold front/col sags southward in response across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area and extended towards the BRO CWFA will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. For Tuesday, closed 500 mb low pressure forming over the southeastern United States, mid-level troughiness becoming more pronounced along the Texas coastline, and a weak cold front easing towards the BRO CWFA from the north, will result in mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Upper levels not as supportive however with weak ridging through the evening. Not really anticipating severe weather with freezing levels around 13000 feet and a not too deep dry layer in the low levels. Monday night into Tuesday the upper level ridging more aggressively builds northeast with a jet max wrapping around the northeast corner of the ridge through MN into WI. Lows Monday night will be in the 60s with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, the warmer readings in central SD.
103 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and near-normal temperature through Monday. As surface ridging becomes more established tonight, a clearing sky and light wind should allow for fog development, perhaps locally dense in some valley locations. An increase in 850mb temperatures and decent mixing point to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. Ridging over the Rockies will broaden into the Plains, with our region being set up into the back side of a mean trough. Given the northern origins of these systems and the lingering trough keeping flow from the south cut off, precipitation totals will remain rather subdued overall.
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An area of high pressure remains centered over the region this morning. This high is expected to sink very slowly south through tonight while continuing to provide the area with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. A weak front over southern Canada this morning will work south as the high retreats and may make into to the northern sections of Wisconsin by late tonight. A weak short wave trough topping the western Conus ridge may slide southeast across the Great Lakes, interact with the front and cause some widely scattered showers and storms to develop across mainly the eastern sections of the area Tuesday afternoon. There looks to be the potential for short waves to top the ridge and move across the Midwest just about every day.
This is due to a broad region of high pressure extending from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes. * None Quiet weather continues through the rest of the weekend with high pressure firmly in place over lower MI. Expect hazy skies to continue into the beginning of next work week before flow trajectories change behind a cold front. The thermal trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes this weekend finally pushes east tonight allowing 850mb temps to climb by 2-4C. Next rain chances come the second half of the day Tuesday as low pressure tracking across eastern Ontario sweeps a backdoor cold front into SE MI.
With abundant low level moisture and southward moving cold front, expect MVFR and IFR cigs at all sites tonight with poor flight conditions. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 69 81 68 86 / 70 70 80 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 80 68 88 / 50 50 70 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 81 67 80 66 87 / 50 40 60 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 65 81 63 87 / 40 20 50 10 20.
An upper lvl ridge will stay centered over the UT/WY border helping high temps stay in upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region. The upper lvl ridge will stay near the Continental Divide reducing mid lvl heights over the region. Plus a front, that is currently traversing the Permian Basin, will bring in cooler temps into the area. Therefore, Tues temps are likely to be a few degrees cooler.
With the winds out of the east near the surface and the northeast aloft it should keep temperatures slightly cooler today with highs in the upper 80s. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. A fairly quiet weather pattern through the rest of the week as an upper level ridge moves out of the Rockies into the central plains.