Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR SO DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. /ISSUED 305 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
506 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT QUIETLY CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS EXPANSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION.
AND A PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FOG PATCHY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS TENNESSEE. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS WILL EXIT EAST ALABAMA BY 01Z AND WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES AS VSBYS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 6 MILES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 58/ROSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WARM SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA.
TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WILL BE OVER NM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEIR MAIN IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
938 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO FALL ANY LOWER THAN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND UPPER 40S ON BARRIER ISLANDS. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL AID IN ALLOWING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
1055 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST MS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND BACK INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT ALONG A MEI-HEZ LINE AT 01Z WILL PUSH SE OF AREA BY 17/06Z. FORCING A COLD FRONT TO DO LIKEWISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AERA WEDNESNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION AT 20Z WITH ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE CLOUD FIELD ALONG WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE REMAINING SNOW FIELD WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 50 32 58 / 60 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 43 29 52 / 80 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 42 28 53 / 80 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 41 28 48 / 80 10 10 0 TN.
340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
331 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THEN SLOWLY SWITCH TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BUT STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MO.
254 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE H7 LOW OVER SOCAL THURSDAY MORNING WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT REACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SHORT- LIVED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSION IS FORECAST TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT. RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BUT IN THE MEAN TIME THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. SOUTHEAST SFC INFLOW SUPPORTED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST U. AND ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THE LOWER LVL ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE COASTAL AREAS.
328 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, PROVIDING CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP TONIGHT, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL MOISTEN FROM THE TOP-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGE HAS HELPED KEEP THE FORECAST AREA QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A VORT MAX SLIDING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS AT LEAST PARTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH MANAGED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. THE GULF COAST SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN COVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE SW/W STEERING FLOW. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NW ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z AS A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH A FEW RURAL AREAS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPLIT OFF FRIDAY AND SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A LARGER REGION OF WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
635 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND RIDGING OVER TEXAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE 500MB TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS TODAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST AS THE 500MB RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EL PASO COUNTY INTO KIOWA COUNTY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS VEERING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DIMINISHED MOISTURE DEPTH OVER THE REGION. A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO MAY MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
/39 SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
350 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015 BY AFTERNOON THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE THE LEFT THE AREA TO THE EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING POKES NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ZONAL H3 JET PARKED OVER THE GULF COAST FOR MANY DAYS IS DISPLACED NORTH.
408 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD NORTH OF I-80. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC CANADA WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD WITH 500 HEIGHT RISES OF 120 M OVER SRN WI. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS OF 3-5C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR TODAY. BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED.
CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
INCLUDING A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING FROM THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA. HEADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE. THE RIDGING SHOULD MOSTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
121 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXITING IDAHO ZONES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WX. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN IDAHO ZONES BUT ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
335 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES QUICKLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS LOOK TO FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE REGION. 09 /ISSUED 1204 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/ THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
254 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MID STATE YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE. A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
105 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
641 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THUS WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE FOR GUIDANCE HIGHS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUN MAY OCCUR. BELIEVE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
UPPER LOW/DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS SLOWLY CREPT EASTWARD WITH TIME. CLASSIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. THE WIND THOUGH WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE DECENT FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS REFLECTED BY THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION PROGGED FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GOOD ENOUGH PRECIP RATES THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE P-TYPE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT 850MB-700MB TEMPS QUICKLY GO ABOVE FREEZING JUST BEHIND WHAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP AND CONTINUE TO WARM THEREAFTER.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
358 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY.
411 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
203 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU PM. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD FAR NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS MN. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN WHERE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF THURSDAY EVENING.
351 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY KEEPING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
WITH NEARLY FULL SUN AND A LIGHT AND A TAD WARMER LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES (925 MB ESPECIALLY) EXPECT A HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER-MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PAST DAYS AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE RED RIVER AT 18Z. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN ALBERTA TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT WARMER SFC-850 MB LAYER THAN PAST RUNS WITH BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOSTLY LIQUID WITH ANY PRECIP. WITH BEST CHC OF SOME MIX (IP/SN) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NW/WCNTRL MN (LAKE ITASCA-BEMIDJI AREA INTO ERN BECKER-HUBBARD) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BC SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW MT IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION MOVING SW TO NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY. WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A CLOSED 700MB LOW AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ALONG A COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
339 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY'S WARMTH HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS MOVED EAST AND ALLOWED MUCH DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
315 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015 THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP. THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT IS NOT ZERO.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THAT WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE A SHALLOW BUT VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MID LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS STRONGLY INDICATE A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS EVENING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.
A positively tilted upper level trough is off the coast, with moist southwest flow extending inland with a stalled frontal boundary over Norcal. The band of precipitation will pivot as the trough moves inland Friday and becomes negatively tilted.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NUDGED BETWEEN THIS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
911 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 STOUT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD QUIET ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.
/ISSUED 239 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016/ CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER AL FROM APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT IT IS WEAKENING FAST. THIS WEAKENING RIDGE IS FINALLY ALLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS CREATED FLOODING ACROSS LA/TX TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE STILL TRIES TO KEEP A HOLD OVER GA FRI WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY INDICES LOW SO ONLY GOING WITH GENERAL THUNDERS FOR NOW.
Upper low was moving east across central Mexico with weak upper trough crossing the Northern Plains. The upper low swings north into southern Texas into Friday and expect cloud cover to slowly increase through then. Highs could be a touch cooler in more cloud but should be very similar to today. Model trends from the meandering upper low over Texas show a slower progression northward and therefore have backed off pops in the early evening, especially north of Interstate 70.
TEMPS JUST TWEAKED MAINLY IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE LOWER 30S IF NOT AROUND 30 IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN. HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WILL LEAD TO NO CHANCES OF POPS. THE GEM AND GFS ARE COOLER WITH TEMPS TOMORROW.
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 3 DEGREES IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Water vapor imagery and H5 heights still show closed low positioned across old Mexico with a nice fetch of Gulf moisture into the southern US where heavy rain has led to serious flooding issues. For the local area rain chances will decrease through the evening, but will increase once again Friday as upper low finally ejects northward. Given some instability across the region as this trough ejects, southern portions of the region could see some rumbles of thunder in addition to rain showers Sat and Sun.
733 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.