Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
242 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK RIDGING ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING ASHORE IN THE PACNW. AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED S/SW DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPRAWLED BACK INTO E/CENTRAL TX. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, THE HUN CWFA WAS SANDWICHED IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH THE REMNANTS OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW FIRING UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FURTHER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY BE AUGMENTING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FACILITATING THE INCREASED ACTIVITY DESPITE A LARGE-SCALE REGIME ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY NEUTRAL TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS TONIGHT. INITIAL ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN SE OHIO AND ALONG RIDGES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME. ONCE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A STRONG MID- LEVEL JET PASSING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE 850MB TROF. EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT NEAR 30KTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MD/WV.
600 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015 Breezy west to northwest winds are advecting a cool and dry airmass into the region today, in the wake of a cold front that passed through the region early this morning. Winds will start to decrease this evening as high pressure, currently centered over the High Plains, moves into the area overnight. Another sunny and pleasant day is then expected for Tuesday, as the area of high pressure only very slowly moves east into the Ohio Valley.
357 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT WAS NEARLY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH.
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 AM WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015 Breezy west to northwest winds are advecting a cool and dry airmass into the region today, in the wake of a cold front that passed through the region early this morning. Winds will start to decrease this evening as high pressure, currently centered over the High Plains, moves into the area overnight. Another sunny and pleasant day is then expected for Tuesday, as the area of high pressure only very slowly moves east into the Ohio Valley.
WACO WILL ALSO SEE LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO DALLAS TO ABILENE AND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING INTO WESTERN EDGE OF WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, STRETCHING FROM WEST OF PINCKNEYVILLE IL, ONWARD TO PERRYVILLE AND VAN BUREN MISSOURI.
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015/ TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA IS MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SITUATED BETWEEN IS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM IL DOWN TO WEST TX. MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE. DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SEEN IN THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING. WITH THE COLD FRONT SO FAR BACK TO THE WEST.
1239 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015 18Z TAF issuance Clouds continue to increase behind a cold front that moved through the region this morning.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS NOT THE CLEANEST RIDGE ON THE MAP AS A DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SET TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE NICKS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAWS IN SOME MILD AND DRY AIR FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
CONVECTION IS INITIATING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS FEEDING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
320 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING ATTEMPTING TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. SFC PATTERN WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHERLY FETCH GOING WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR TUES NT AND WED NT.
337 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPS TO MAKE A RETURN ON TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND 700MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 7C ON SWLY UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. A TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE DYNAMIC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED.
GIVEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE EAST OF BAX TO ADG TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUNCTION TO NEAR TEMPLE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET SERVES TO ADVECT A POCKET OF MOISTURE (OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE DERIVED TPW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF) INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO TAYLOR LINE. THE COLD FRONT AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
This precipitation is occurring ahead of a cold front which is pushing east through the area, and at 3 AM was located just west of the Highway 65 corridor. Behind the front a slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area as highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s occur both today and Tuesday afternoons. Upper level ridging will build east into the central U.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. AS THE FORE-MENTIONED UPPER LOW IN THE SW US BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S ACRS THE NRN CWA WITH LOCATIONS ALONG I-10 HAVING REACHED THE LOWER 80S JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. BUT HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER ON HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODEL TAKES THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Last remnants of cold front over our CWA currently extending from Sparta to near Vandalia. tonight's weather will be dominated by unseasonably strong low pressure system tracking its way from MN into the upper Great Lakes. Cyclonic circulation around the low has produced an extensive area of low cloudiness from the mid MO valley throughout IA. So, as this cloud deck advects east with the low some of this cloudiness will dissipate with loss of heating, but some of it over our far northern counties will likely linger at least into the late evening hours. with overnight lows ranging form the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
246 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A COOLING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
345 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO PUSH STRATUS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A WIND SHIFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
214 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AND STRENGTHENING SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
1118 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 DRIER DAY IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AFTER A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS. HRRR AND NAM12 GENERATING A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
301 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING INTO WESTERN EDGE OF WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, STRETCHING FROM WEST OF PINCKNEYVILLE IL, ONWARD TO PERRYVILLE AND VAN BUREN MISSOURI.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT PUSHES IN TO THE AREA DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 18Z WED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RH VALUES CRASH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY WED AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST BY WEEKS END TO ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE A RATHER MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WED AFT BUT FASTER INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THU LOOK TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10-15 KNOTS MOST AREAS TONIGHT THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW INTO LATE WEEK.
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IS AFFECTING THE JAMES VALLEY REGION. AND A WEAK INDUCED RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF SOILS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOW 80S. NORTHWEST WIND WILL USHER IN A DRIER COOLER AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY COOL TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 50S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
351 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER.
318 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS CAUSED ALL THE WEEKENDS WEATHER WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW CENTER IN WI SSW INTO CENTRAL WI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUD COVERED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
UPPER LOW ACRS NRN WI WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR EAST WITH MID LEVEL STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE.
552 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA THAT HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. WITH A STRONG MID- LEVEL JET PASSING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE 850MB TROF. EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT NEAR 30KTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MD/WV.
345 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 A CLOSED AND NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S.
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015/ A cold front has moved through the area bringing gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures to the area. There remains a warm and moist southeast flow riding over this airmass which combined with an approaching weak upper trough will cause convection to expand across much of the area south of I-20 tonight.
142 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
228 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORMING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LEADING TO SOME CONVECTION NORTH OF CUBA. THIS DRYING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SIGNATURE OF THE UPPER LOW AT 500 MB. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF THIS WEEK IS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE GULF MAY PUSH BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO SURGE OF MOISTURE AND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS.
641 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOMORROW. USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TOLEDO AREA BY 8PM. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE EAST AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
247 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER.
AT 12Z MONDAY ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM ARIZONA TO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE PREVAILING ANTICYCLONE. FOR TUESDAY, AFTER A COLD START, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALSO MOVE IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
151 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 SYNOPTIC PICTURE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE IMPLANTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU MIDDLE TN AND S ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWALTER INDICES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 0 TO -2 WITHIN THE 8H THETA-E RIDGE, SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. AS THIS OCCURS, THE COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK JUST INTO FAR NW AL THIS AFTERNOON, THEN STALL OUT ACROSS TN THRU NW AL INTO NRN MS.
The overwhelming trend in the latest guidance is for a more rapid drying trend into this evening, but with all of the moisture in the area and the cold front lingering just to the southeast will err to the wet side tonight and Sunday. On Monday, the surface boundary will move back through the region as a warm front in response to a strong storm system moving northeast into the central and northern Plains.
IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH ALL OF OUR PARISHES NOW ARE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 401 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ A WET FORECAST WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CNTRL LA.
124 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TURN WINDS NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY. UNTIL A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
1136 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION DUE TO SUBSIDING AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THESE INVERSIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER BASIN PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON, THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SEE WARMER LOWS THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.
WITH A SRN STREAM TROF OVER THE SWRN CONUS. S OF A NRN STREAM RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST. THE SWRN CONUS UPR TROF WL MIGRATE EWD. TO LEVELS A LITTLE BLO THE LOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO JUST EAST OF JACKSON TN AND GREENVILLE MS HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE PUSH OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS HAS WEAKENED. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
342 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
108 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK AS SOME OF THE MORE STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS TO EASE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AS FREEZING LINE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
348 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Most of the short term will be dominated by the influences of a closed upper level low that will work its way slowly across the northern Rockies and Plains states. Short wave energy ejecting northeast from the low will bring additional areas of mainly light rains today and Monday, especially to western KY and far sern MO.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NRN CO. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AND DROOPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
1223 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
1247 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER MID TO UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF A OMEGA BLOCK WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. ON THE SURFACE A SAGGING COLD FRONT FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. VWP WIND PROFILES SHOWS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL MIDDLE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST.
INITIAL WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
145 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
254 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
1021 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE CORE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UTAH/WYOMING STATE LINE. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL HAVE READJUSTED ITSELF SO IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
1154 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WINNING THE BATTLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEADING WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW STRETCHES TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING KEEPING MANY PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALTHOUGH THIS LAYER DIMINISHES FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND A MIX OF LIGHT FZRA AND ICE PELLETS MAY BE MORE COMMON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIGHTING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR MISSOURI BORDER. MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL BE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS IOWA MONDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EXPECT TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICE INTRODUCTION AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT MAY SEE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.