Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOLLOWING YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SETTING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. BUT SOME CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE BY THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR.
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWS AROUND 1. TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TODAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKLY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
1242 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015 A much quieter stretch of weather appears to finally be on tap for the region for the coming week, as ridging both at the surface and aloft look to remain in place over the area for the next few days. This will persist through at least mid morning, with fog and drizzle most prevalent along the spine of the Ozark Plateau, where stratus is more prone to build down toward the higher elevations. The slow clearing trend will continue Monday, though right now things are looking more cloudy than not as an upper low remains parked over southeastern Arkansas.
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A PERSISTENT/LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DURATION. AS THE LOW NEARS. AS THE LOW CENTER ITSELF LIKEWISE TRACKS SELY INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER AWAY WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ADD IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY/ MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE REGION WILL KEEP PERIODS OF CONVECTION GOING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 65 82 64 / 70 50 60 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 81 61 / 60 50 60 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 65 81 61 / 70 50 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 62 78 59 / 50 50 60 50.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING THINGS MAINLY QUIET.
/ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ MAIN CONCERN IS THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U. MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT DRIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING EAST AS WELL LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR OVER N GA. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN THEY DIFFER IN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BOTH MODELS FILL THE LOW HOWEVER THE ECMWF PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS.
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT AT 2 PM EXTENDED EAST-WEST FROM WILLIAMSPORT TO DUBOIS. THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG AND NEAR THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS.
250 PM PDT Sun May 31 2015 Cooler weather returns during the early part of the week along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains. Slightly warmer temperatures will be possible by the end of the week. Plentiful high-clouds and cooler temperatures have spread across the interior of NorCal today as the trough just offshore approaches.
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY. BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL HELP INCREASE PV WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
VFR conditions will prevail next 25 hours, as an upper lvl trough builds east into the area.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM GOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH OBERLIN AND NORTON. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
326 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE.
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ALONG MO/KS BORDER HAS HELPED MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER EAST. UPPER LOW WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER RIDGING/RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS TO EASTERN AR AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS TAKING A LONGER TIME TO FILTER THROUGH AR. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE REGION AND ON THE EAST SIDE.
High pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into Kansas this morning at 08Z. Highs today should top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the warmer temps in north central Kansas. Tonight, moisture will increase across western and central Kansas as the low level jet develops. Northwest flow will continue aloft as the upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Dry air in the low levels will need to be overcome and storms may have a hard time progressing as far east as highway 81 as the moisture axis should remain focused mainly over western Kansas. Lows tonight will cool into the lower 50s. Though mid/high cloud from dissipating convection could last well through the morning, expect highs to modify a few more degrees into the lower to middle 70s.
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CONT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS RATHER LARGE. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRAVEL ALONG THE RIDGE AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE. ONE NOTE ABOUT THE FORECAST IS THAT IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. KRC RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE TRIES ITS BEST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER A VERY STUBBORN UPPER LOW BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U. CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOSES ITS PUNCH.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL MONDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WHILE A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE TROF JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUE. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE IN ND TUE NIGHT WITH THREAT OF PRECIP PRECEDING SYSTEM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DRYING THE REGION OUT EVEN MORE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEK.
ALL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FOR THE RADAR RETURNS DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS WEAKENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT. IT'S POSSIBLE THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH BAY BY THIS EVENING. OR THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
539 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. KEEPING TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY. COOLER. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
325 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI.
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER TROF CENTERED JUST TO OUR N SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U. AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SERN U. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROF IS FCST TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO TX. AS A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE NW SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE RIDGE RETREATING TO THE W JUST A BIT. THE EURO IS FURTHER NE WITH THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. TODAY/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STILL CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTH TEXAS.
RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH WITH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING A WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
726 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
BUT RADAR IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON.
958 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
REST OF THE DAY WILL WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND AND CNTRL MN.
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. 00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS AND CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP. MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT.
BUT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL PROMOTE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING FAR INLAND SECTIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY'S IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
1227 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
1007 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. EVENING SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO AR AND INTO ECNTRL TX THIS MORNING. WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE E INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND TN VALLEY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE SERLY COMPONENT ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS THE REGION.
OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST POPS THEN. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT.
1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. ONLY HAVE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS TEMPS ARE PRETTY STEADY ACROSS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
THOUGH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH MAXS A TAD WARMER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
Weak high pressure is still in control of our weather pattern. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer today with most locations reaching the lower and middle 90s. The upper level ridge will remain across the southwestern U. and a trough will remain across the Great Lakes region for most of this week.
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
927 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WE HAVE THE REMNANT TROUGH SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOME LOCALIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY JUST WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. AND IS TRAPPED BY AN MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND A STRONG RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTH. THE SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE VERTICAL PROFILE. AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THE TUTT CELL WILL FIGHT THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH NUDGES THE TUTT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015 COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST.
A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND AND CNTRL MN.
THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.