Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN SECTIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. As this occurs, we will see a transition from light snow to light freezing drizzle. In addition, areas of freezing fog are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well. While we are not anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and overpasses. We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as we finally warm above freezing into the 40s.
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE.
SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS. WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE SW CONUS. WEAK SURFACE TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS TROF PASSES. WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. BUT ARE MOSTLY STILL BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL RETURN.
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTH AND SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR KEEPING SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE NORTH TODAY. /ISSUED 312 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING NOTED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NORTH GEORGIA.
BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
450 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
347 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
High pressure will remain in control through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. This trough will dig south across the western CONUS today.
208 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE CONUS. BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
more as a result of the expected cloud cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold front. Still expect snow accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before drier air moves in from the north on Saturday.
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
1152 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RE- TURNING AT THE LOWER/UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP CLOUDS OVER SE TX THRU THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPS WARM AND PCPN CHCS INCREASE. AND AGAIN NEXT WEDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
more as a result of the expected cloud cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold front. Still expect snow accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and will move south through the region this morning.
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL WILL BE VEERING TO A SE DIRECTION. AND WILL LEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
334 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
DENVER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MDLS SHOWING LOW BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE DENVER AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WL HEDGE THINGS TOWARDS STRATUS BUT ALSO MENTION PATCHY FREEZING FOG. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG DOES START TO ADVECT INTO THE MOUNTAINS FM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE COLD FRONT DOES SLIP INTO DENVER IN THE AFTN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN. UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon and into the Ohio river valley tonight. A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as high pressure builds into the region.
/ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/ THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN. UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
The rest of western Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the teens and low 20s.
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
1230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. IF SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.
257 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015 Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by 18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into central/northern IL through midday Saturday.
Cooler, breezy, and dry weather is expected on Saturday.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE ARCTIC HIGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SUBTLE WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
356 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN EVENT. THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY VERIFY BECAUSE OF WIND. BUT WE KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR AND SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO ONLY INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOSTLY SCALE BACK SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY TO GENERALLY TRACE AMOUNTS.
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a northeasterly flow at the sfc.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF EIGHT MILE WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10 F RANGE (SLIGHTLY WARMER CITY OF DETROIT). JET MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ALIGNED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z SUITE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
810 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2015 A weather system will move into the area today, leading to cooler and wetter weather into the weekend. CEO An upper level trough is currently situated off the Washington coast, with northwesterly flow persisting aloft across California. The aforementioned trough will continue to shift southward through the course of the day. Given the convective nature of today's precipitation, showers could be hit- or-miss especially across the lower elevations. Still expecting roughly 4-8" of snow accumulation above 5500 ft this afternoon through Saturday, with up to a foot at the highest elevations. Given the high traffic volume across the Sierra on Fri/Sat, some spinouts, slower travel, and chain controls should be expected. The upper low shifts overhead Saturday, and moves south Saturday night.
18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
248 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS. CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW SO ONLY INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
THE DEEP THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
AND WE'LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM (SAT-SUN) FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
1155 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM AIR WEST OF I29. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.
BUT THE BREAK BETWEEN SNOWFALLS ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE- FREEZING TEMPS SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES MAY BE BETTER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.
While confidence remains high that most areas should see at least an inch or two from this activity, there remains some questions as to how far north the higher totals will make it, and whether or not current forecast amounts are too high. However, looking at the past few runs of the NAM (which has been a bit more reliable than other models lately), it's possible some of these values could be on the high side particularly north of the Missouri River.
647 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake. Expect partly cloudy skies, with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST AND LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY WEAKENS IT AS IT REACHES THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LESS RAIN THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
405 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BENIGN WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW WILL CONJOIN WITH ANOTHER IN VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS INFRINGING THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING.
The trough axis from the northern stream wave will interact with the closed low over OK/AR causing it to weaken and become an open wave. In the wake of these mid level systems high pressure is building southward through the plains. Therefore expect the gusty surface winds this morning until the high pressure gets closer to the forecast area, and the gradient weakens causing the winds to decrease. Drier air at 850 mb advects in from the north later today, which will support the lower surface dew points. Went with dew points similar to the RAP, which has been handling the lower values fairly well. Sunday brings a return to southwesterly winds as the lee trof redevelops.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TRANSITION BACK TO A WNW FLOW REGIME ON THE SW FRINGE OF A MEAN SE CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD.
A weak cold front will move across the area today, with gusts to 20 KT possible, mainly across the northern terminals. /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake. Expect partly cloudy skies, with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID WEEK AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.
341 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER WYOMING BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING. DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGING TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONTINUED DRY TONIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME THIN CIRRUS AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN OVER THE RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE STATE. LOOK FOR MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT AS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 25 MPH THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS.
AT 00Z SATURDAY A 700MB AND 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A 250MB JET WAS LOCATED WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRETCHED FROM EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH, BUT IT WILL MORE OR LESS ACT LIKE AN ORDINARY WIND SHIFT AS THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO SPEAK OF REALLY. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT THE AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION.
Otherwise, the pattern will begin to dry out some today as the upper flow veers to the west south of a northern stream trough.
426 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OVER ARKANSAS WITH A WEDGE STILL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WE'LL FINALLY SEE THE DREARY WEATHER COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.