Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With a sharp upper ridge to our west and a digging trough off the Atlantic seaboard, the deep layer flow locally will be from the northwest. This combined with max temps in the lower to mid 90s and a few weak impulses in the northwest flow will bring at least scattered convection to our entire CWA. The highest PoPs(50%) cover SE AL and extend southeastward through the western Big Bend.
311 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Strong upper level ridge remains in place across the mid section of the country, including southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
306 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 During the short term phase of the forecast, we will see the high amplitude long wave ridge aloft strengthen early in the period, then begin to fill/dirty as a heat Low develops across the mid South during the latter half of the period. Looking at model sounding data, we see lapse rates from 6 to 9 C/km in the lower 6 km of the trop today. Tmrw (Mon) is a similar day, as we see the upper High aloft losing its distinction and the lower trop flow starting to establish southerlies just to our west.
259 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania overnight and early Sunday.
Both the surface and upper ridge gets shunted south of the area as a deep layer trough amplifies across the eastern U. Afternoon max temps will be a couple of degrees warmer and with higher moisture levels. Drier and slightly warmer mid level air will work its way into the region which will produce hotter afternoon temps.
Temperatures should rise to highs in the lower 90s. Tonight, continued a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Big County, associated with a weak upper low. Otherwise dry conditions expected as an upper ridge strengthens over the region.
309 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016 A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week, keeping temperatures near normal. Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery. Forecast models through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing.
An upper level ridge is centered over the Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valley. An unseasonably warm and moist airmass remains in place under the upper ridge with 3 AM temperatures in the 70s in Iowa with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A band of showers and thunderstorms have been developing across Northeast Iowa aided by surface moisture convergence and a weak short wave rounding the upper level ridge. High temperature will once again reach the low to mid 90s over Central Iowa with 850 mb temperatures progged to be in the lower 20s.
A strong U/L ridge will retrograde over the central Gulf of Mexico today with the U/L flow gradually veering northwest over the forecast area.
203 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north later tonight. Morning lows will be warm, in the lower to mid 70s. Today: A cold front will be pushing through the Ohio River valley through the day, remaining well off to the north of the CWA this afternoon. Southwesterly surface winds will become more westerly as a lee-side trough sets up across the state. With ridge aloft and dry airmass expect no precipitation. So dry forecast for Monday and slightly cooler with east flow. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Upper trough axis over eastern California and slowly shifting eastward.
A 700mb trough combines with a return southeast flow at 850mb to keep the shower chance going over southeast Montana tonight. TWH Monday will see the energy from the southern stream of the weekend's trough move through the central Rockies which will lead to some of that energy working into Montana. The flow becomes southwesterly again, as a Pacific trough remains pretty much anchored over the West Coast. The latest GFS came in fairly lean on the QPF, and is generally on the warmer and drier end of the ensemble solutions. Temperatures will continue to warm back up into the mid to upper 80s and could get into the lower 90s at some locations in southeastern Montana. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will form south of KBIL, mainly over the higher terrain, late this morning and early this afternoon.
259 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 256 AM CDT Likely the most notable weather feature for today will be the much cooler and drier air flowing in from the North as the frontal boundary slips south of the forecast area by this afternoon. High pressure will continue to be an influence through tonight, but expect clouds to steadily increase as the channel of moisture/clouds across the Central Plains begins to pivot east late tonight. Thermal ridge will advect north Monday, bringing temps back to the upper 80s to around 90. As eluded too earlier, PWATs will be creeping up as well as dew points nearing the mid/upr 60s, resulting in apparent temps Monday afternoon in the lower to middle 90s.
A deep and well stacked ridge complex is centered over the Yucatan peninsula and the Western Caribbean.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Although 500 mb high pressure will be retrograding across the Gulf of Mexico, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. However, tonight through Monday, as the ridge moves even closer to the BRO CWFA, with new and more amplified ridging developing over the Lone Star State in tandem, dry weather will prevail for the forecast area.
A weak cold front will slowly sag through central Indiana today and could be just enough to force a thunderstorm this afternoon across southern parts of the area. After that high pressure builds and dry weather is expected until Monday night. The strong upper ridge over the area gets suppressed starting Monday night and after that time will see thunderstorm chances every period as upper waves moves through the main flow and then a cut off upper low makes its way from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. A cold front will slowly sag through central Indiana today. With the slower frontal passage increased high temperatures to the lower 80s in the north where the front could arrive during the morning to the low 90s south which spends much of the day in the warm sector ahead of the front.
339 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front with showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
Upper level troughing to west of the Gem State is slow to lift and move out, so showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon in places from the Snake River plain to the borders with UT and WY. The more southerly flow will allow mild and warmer air to move in and highs are expected to be up 6 to 8 deg F. In fact, the trough does not cross until Mon during the day, so thunderstorms and showers do not spread into central ID until Mon. A few showers will remain possible through midweek as a cold front slowly weakens across the area.
Models are still indicating the highest chances for pops will reside south of the boundary.
418 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Building high pressure under north, northwest flow aloft, will ensure a dry and seasonably cool day. High pressure will rule for Monday, with dry weather and comfortable dewpoints.
Overall, anvil shielding has likely lead to sufficient inhibition to prevent the higher threats this evening from being reached. Heavy rainfall may be possible especially across the northwest on the nose of the low level jet where convection may congeal. That said, the trend this evening has been for the higher bound of threats to not be reached. An attendant warm front will propagate into southwest North Dakota this afternoon.
147 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure today. Cold front Sunday.
While 90s will still be common over the E third of SD and W MN, the rest of the area will top out in the 80s, because of clouds, rain,or just being behind the cold front. Sfc dew points in the mid 60s, a healthy low level jet, and a trough rounding into our area and breaking down the 500MB ridge will also help. Cooler, more seasonal normal air will be able to work in for Monday.
A weak upper ridge will move through the area today.
234 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 The upper level ridge continues to impact the region with hot temperatures and dry conditions. Hot temperatures will continue despite the ridge breaking down this week, and continuing chances for precip will be in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
we'll also have to keep an eye on the trof currently in NW Tx as it makes its way toward NE Tx later in the aftn. The upper trof should dig SE into Louisiana tonight & Monday. Ridge starts building overhead Tue and should persist into the weekend.
411 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Building high pressure under north, northwest flow aloft, will ensure a dry and seasonably cool day. High pressure will rule for Monday, with dry weather and comfortable dewpoints.
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will build over the region Sunday into Monday.
During this timeframe, the Atlantic ridge will build back in over the region at the lower levels.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and near normal temps. Meanwhile a disturbance and its associated cold front will approach the two state area Sunday night and Monday spreading mid and high level clouds to the area. In addition pressure gradients will tighten and breezy winds could develop Monday afternoon and cooler aftn temps can be expected.
644 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure over the southern states will shift farther south as a weak cold front approaches from the north today. A cold front will be pushing through the Ohio River valley through the day, remaining well off to the north of the CWA this afternoon. Southwesterly surface winds will become more westerly as a lee-side trough sets up across the state. Partly cloudy skies this evening expected to clear overnight with low temperatures cooling into the lower 70s. With ridge aloft and dry airmass expect no precipitation. So dry forecast for Monday and slightly cooler with east flow.
421 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Current surface analysis places low over northwest South Dakota with warm front stretching to the east. Upper level analysis places trough over the far western United States with low cutting off towards southern California while ridge remains over the midwest. Colder airmass pulls in behind the low bringing much more pleasant temperatures to most of the area. Ahead of this feature, warmer temperatures are expected over the James River Valley region where modest instability is expected to develop. quiet weather is expected over most locations through much of the day before bottom end of west coast trough lifts through southwest flow and approaches the area.
Guidance generally favors the Rolling Plains for CI by Sunday afternoon as sharp ridging builds in from the west though by early evening a weak vortmax rotates eastward around the ridge out of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos/South Plains divide. Temperatures will also increase marginally with the building ridge along with another day of robust moisture. A mild overnight will lay the groundwork for our warmest air mass of the season under the building ridge. Upper level ridge axis is expected to move east of the region on Monday as the next trough out west begins to eject. The BC low should elongate and split moving SW out into the Pacific while Southern CONUS high pressure builds into New Mexico.
As the cool, weak trough exits the area this morning, a shift to dry westerly flow today will allow temperatures to reach around normal for this time of year. Generally dry and warmer weather will continue into Monday ahead of the next trough system and we transition into southwest flow.
The upper level low responsible for pulling this moisture northward in southern CA, continuing to lift northeast. This upper level low will eventually move in the western part of the state by this afternoon. Thunderstorm complexes are developing on the right front quadrant of this upper level low where the nose of a jet streak is rotating around, creating a decent area of upper level divergences. This line is likely to shift westward this morning, reaching Winnemuuca briefly before upper level trof to the north begins to push it back to the southeast. On Monday, the now open 500mb trof and the sfc dryline are situated in eastern NV, as a deep 500mb trof and associated closed low approaches the Pacific NW. Large closed upper low off the northwest coast is well agreed upon by the models.
317 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 256 AM CDT Likely the most notable weather feature for today will be the much cooler and drier air flowing in from the North as the frontal boundary slips south of the forecast area by this afternoon. High pressure will continue to be an influence through tonight, but expect clouds to steadily increase as the channel of moisture/clouds across the Central Plains begins to pivot east late tonight. Thermal ridge will advect north Monday, bringing temps back to the upper 80s to around 90. As eluded too earlier, PWATs will be creeping up as well as dew points nearing the mid/upr 60s, resulting in apparent temps Monday afternoon in the lower to middle 90s.
The MCS should then ride around the 500-hPa ridge and along the 700-hPa baroclinic boundary.
/issued 155 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ Weak mid level vorticity maxima, or convection spawned MCVs, swirling around an upper trough over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico Plains through Sunday. Southeasterly low level upslope flow will persist during this time also, which will continue a feed of low level moisture into the higher terrain during this time. An upper ridge will begin to expand over the region Monday, lower rain chances and vault temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. The West Coast upper trough will eject northeastward over the central Rockies Monday night and allow dry air to spread east with even hotter temperatures through the end of the week.
KMCB is currently expected to see the lowest ceilings and most widespread fog with some IFR ceiling restrictions of around 500 to 1000 feet possible from 11z to 13z. Currently, do not expect much worse than 3 mile visibility to form when the low stratus is in place.
Despite the ridging and low MOS numbers, the raw GFS and ECMWF each crank out a decent QPF footprint over the forecast area today.
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure will build overhead tonight through Monday.
249 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure over the southern states will shift farther south as a weak cold front approaches from the north today. Morning lows will be warm, in the lower to mid 70s. Today: A cold front will be pushing through the Ohio River valley through the day, remaining well off to the north of the CWA this afternoon. Southwesterly surface winds will become more westerly as a lee-side trough sets up across the state. Partly cloudy skies this evening expected to clear overnight with low temperatures cooling into the lower 70s. With ridge aloft and dry airmass expect no precipitation. So dry forecast for Monday and slightly cooler with east flow.
Slow eastward migration of the conditionally unstable trof of cold air aloft tonight along with the loss of daytime heating allows for the decrease in showers and thunderstorm activity early this evening. Any locations dropping down to freezing are highly localized so there is no need for a freeze warning. By late Monday morning another trof of low pressure is influencing the Cascades and parts of the Northern Mountains with a somewhat moist and unstable southwest flow thus pops show an increase over those areas late Monday morning and on.
547 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Strong upper level ridge remains in place across the mid section of the country, including southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
The combination of weak impulse beneath upper level ridge and the sea breeze should once again be sufficient to trigger isolated to scattered convection.
Satellite, radar and surface obs show a disrupted cold front over Lake Superior as of 19 UTC. The front is surging southward across eastern Lake Superior with support from the low-level marine layer. With a low-level high pressure ridge over the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley impinging on a slowing low-level trough over Lake Superior, gradient winds off the surface continue to increase this afternoon. Models suggest that a mid/upper level ridge will build over cntrl North America with a rex block developing. Expect that there will be a strong enough low level jet and theta-e advection with the prominent 850 mb theta-e ridge just to the west to support elevated tsra into Upper Michigan.
417 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Latest surface analysis shows high pressure continues to maintain its influence over the local area. This boundary begins to move back east as a warm front Tues morning as The upper ridging breaks down and upper trough moves east across the MS river valley.
320 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today along with local morning drizzle. An upper low sits atop of the area this morning. The lift assoc with this low has created a massive area of low clouds that covers all the coasts and vlys and xtnd deep into the mtn passes. The low and the strong onshore push will again keep most of the area cloudy through the afternoon. The cool air aloft with upper low will also destabilize the mtns which will see enough sunshine to warm up. but the marine inversion will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches.
High pressure aloft dominates the Gulf, with our area on the northern side of this ridge. Temps this morning a bit warmer, upper 70s to near 80 along the I-10 corridor, with dewpts not far behind.
348 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Southerly flow continues through tonight before an upper level trough along the southern California coast kicks inland and through our area Monday afternoon. Sufficient daytime heating, lingering boundaries from leftover convection last night and our normal lift along the higher terrain will be enough to fire off additional activity today with the southern zones firing earlier on the edge of the drier air mass. Could see a few early morning cells Monday with another active afternoon expected as the trough swings through.
303 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure over the Eastern Pacific will move across the area this weekend bringing a threat of thunderstorms and high elevation snow showers to the mountain areas through Sunday evening. Upper low is moving inland across Ventura Co attm. Strong deformation zone has set up across Fresno county and will remain stationary as the low drifts north into the Sierra. The band of rain will begin to move east later this morning as the low moves east into NV. Guidance is indicating that another vort lobe will form off the SOCAL coast and keep the low stretched out across the region through this evening. The low to our south will slowly drift north today as the secondary vort will move inland across SOCAL tonight.
Temperatures will remain below normal through much of this week, but high pressure is forecast to build by late in the week bringing a return to hot weather.
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front extended across the eastern and southern Great Lakes during the night. High pressure is expected to follow for Monday.
This is being held in place by an almost cut off low over Central California and an upper low over Northern Alberta. Today the upper flow continues to be mainly west-southwest with the California cut-off remaining nearly stationary and the Alberta upper low moving in Northern Saskatchewan and the Territories. Another upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will drop down near Vancouver Island helping in re-enforcing the southwest flow aloft.
Although this activity is still far west of our area and will remain so, the impressive cirrus shield confirms that yet another hole has been punched in the deep ridging aloft. Western and northern zones will be favored today, but with guidance agreeing that the activity upstream will induce well defined troughing in the mid-levels transiting the region during the daylight hours, scattered showers and storms will be possible regionwide. The ridge will re-establish itself across West Texas, gradually shifting east through midweek.
High pressure will move offshore this evening. A dry cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon.
Snow is falling across central WI where there is less dry air at the low levels. Soundings indicate the low levels never saturate so, do not expect anything more than flurries today. Winds will then veer northwest overnight as a trough of low pressure moves through the region.
A cold front of modified maritime polar air mass characteristics will push south into Central Texas tonight however, slowing by the time it reaches the Ranchlands around midnight, and then pushing slowly through the area through Thurs.
248 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A dry cold front will push south out of south-central Missouri early this evening. If the high clouds stick around, these temperatures may be 2-4 degrees too cool. Highs on Thursday will then be about 10 degrees cooler than what we saw today.
302 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 The last of the low clouds finally burnt off by early afternoon and have been replaced by mid to high level clouds. Warm air advection ahead of the next short wave trof has produced extensive clouds east of the Mississippi River. An active zonal upper flow pattern will push another short wave trof north of Alabama this weekend. An upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will keep the showers confined to areas north of I-20.
There is a weak upper trough over central Utah at 00Z Thursday late afternoon. For pops in the high country, 20-40%s are good overnight into Thursday early afternoon. For the plains, will go with some "slight chance"s over the higher plains up against the foothills through about 03Z this evening. Thursday's high temperatures will be 2-5 C warmer than this afternoon's. As a result, expect widespread but mainly light snowfall over the high country through Thursday night.
a cold front was pushing south across the TX Panhandle while modest WAA was occurring closer to home /S TX/. the aforementioned cold front will drift south across the region bringing weak north flow by sunrise. Greatest chances of fog and precip should be across the coastal counties where cloud bases will be the lowest/greatest moisture depth. Min temps should not occur until around 8am-ish when main surge of cooler air arrives into the region. Isentropic upglide is prog to peak in the morning as continued WAA aloft over an increasingly cooler near surface airmass occurs.
A low level trough will be moving across the area Thursday morning, which should clear out any clouds and shift winds to the W-NW. There will be some weak 850 mb cold advection, but with full sun, most Valley locations should reach the lower to mid 50s.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a flat upper level ridge today. This ridge will shift east tonight as the next Pacific system begins to approach the region. Low pressure system will be moving across the region Fri night through Sat.