Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IN BOTH CASES WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER CONDITIONS IN STAGNANT VALLEYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z TONIGHT IN THE LOWER SNOW COVERED VALLEYS.
1205 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this evening. The high temperature will likely occur shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower 30s or upper 20s by the afternoon.
307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDENT COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ROSEBUD. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE LOWER 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AND THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 8 PM.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. A NORTHWEST -TO-SOUTHEAST 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS LED TO NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20. /ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR WEST TEXAS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS PLODS EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AS WINDS MAINTAIN THEIR NORTHERN COMPONENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THE DAY BEFORE.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIG SE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT-MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
232 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016 A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
A prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s. The high amplitude northwest upper level flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Winds will veer and become increasing strong, particularly late in the taf period, behind a cold frontal passage.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE STARTING OFF A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
219 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH PART TODAY.
242 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOR CLEARING SKIES.
251 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT ARE RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE COOL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NOW ZERO. LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTILTHE LOWER LEVELS DRY FURTHER. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING.
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern and Central Plains this morning. This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so and push through the region this afternoon and evening.
BACKING AND INCREASING WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOSE IN ACROSS FL AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION FROM CANADIAN BORDER TO FLORIDA. AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE TROUGH AXIS.
A weak cold front is currently moving through the area, and should be south of FST within the first hour or two of the forecast period. /issued 339 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ Upper trough moving down across the Central Plains states today as a strong ridge remains over the West Coast. The ridge will build east the next few days and dominate the wx pattern resulting in mild and warming wx for the area. The colder air looks to lag the wind shift as it will be cooler on Monday with highs in the 50s.
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER 09Z.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 13-18 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDENT COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AFTN. AS SFC WINDS BACK TO THE NW WHICH IS A BIT A WARMER WIND COMPONENT. NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THE BROAD UA LOW IMPINGES ON THE UPPER MID-WEST. /29 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TO OUR WEST ALL WEEK WILL FLATTEN AND TRANSLATE OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND.
A cold front will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern and Central Plains this morning. This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so and push through the region this afternoon and evening.
1123 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 DAYTIME ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN ENDING UP A TAD WARMER AND DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
256 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016 THIS AFTERNOON COOLER AIR AND GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SERN PLAINS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GRADIENT OVR THE AREA WL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS A TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AND AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE WRN STATES. ONCE THE TROUGH TO THE E SHIFTS EWD BY TUE OR EARLY WED. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
Regardless, models continue to show decent surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the lower half of a deep dendritic zone. The highest impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the precipitation and it's likely that not everyone will see snow. The ridging over the west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any precipitation chances.
327 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET. STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.
321 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST.
1047 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. THIS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL HELP ENSURE CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
1128 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN YESTERDAY WILL BE MOVING TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CAUSING THE SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO END THIS MORNING AS CLEARING GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY.
843 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
945 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT WERE OVER THE REGION. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THEY WERE OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A SERIES OF RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND HANGS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DRY SLOT IN THE LOWEST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND THUS. COASTAL TEMPS WOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER IF SEA SURFACE TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO NORMAL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROF WILL SET UP FROM OFF THE NORCAL COAST INTO CANADA. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE GOING INTO SEPTEMBER BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO OUR ENTIRE REGION AS A LONGWAVE TROF IS POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. PROFILER SHOWS MARINE AIR MASS NESTLED BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A WARMER DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
The low clouds will break up late this morning and VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The cold front has moved south of our area this morning. For today, looks like cooler temperatures will be the main weather story.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN GEORGIA. THE HRRR DISPLAYED DEVELOPMENT FIRST IN THIS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE INTO THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND HIGHER MOISTURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE FAVORED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE SLOWER TIMING AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS AND MOIST AIR MASS.
628 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC AS A WARMER THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF RETURN FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
1027 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS.
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS MORNING'S RAOB OBSERVATION (12Z KKEY) SAMPLED A WARMER AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 800 MB. CLOUD LINES MAY TRY AND FROM ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS TRANSITIONED THE UPPER HIGH CENTER FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS NEXT WED. THE ECMWF MAINTAINED THE UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
603 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO LIFTING NORTHEAST. A TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST TODAY. TAKING A LOOK UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINED AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS WITH AIR MASS LIKELY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE FOCUS ALONG TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TROUGHING DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
811 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT WERE OVER THE REGION. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THEY WERE OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A SERIES OF RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BISECTING THE CWA THIS MORNING AND THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CLOUDY SKIES ARE HELPING KEEP THOSE NORTHERN SITES COOLER AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PEAKS OF SUN FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND HAVE RAISED THEM INTO THE LOWER 90S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AT NRN TAF SITES N OF COLD FRONT. EXPCT WINDS MAINLY FROM N/NW AROUND 5-7KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE AS ROTATION AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DRAW THIS AIR FROM ITS SOURCE REGION OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST CKV AND RECENTLY BNA. SFC SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRYING PATTERN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH PTCLDY SKIES.
OVER THE WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SET UP A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING SOME MONSOON MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
1022 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE TX AND THE LOWER TWO TIERS OF PARISHES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NW GULF COAST. ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE CNTL CONUS TROF LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACRS LA AND ERN TX. THE UPR TROF WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY FRIDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING BUILDING IN FM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUSHING THE UPR RIDGE WEST.
COASTAL TEMPS WOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER IF SEA SURFACE TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO NORMAL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROF WILL SET UP FROM OFF THE NORCAL COAST INTO CANADA. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE GOING INTO SEPTEMBER BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO OUR ENTIRE REGION AS A LONGWAVE TROF IS POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. PROFILER SHOWS MARINE AIR MASS NESTLED BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A WARMER DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
1106 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA. ONCE COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
909 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A CLEARLY DEFINED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS LEADING TO SOME CLEARING. A COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS MAY DROP TO THE LOWER RANGES OF VFR BY SUNRISE. BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER/DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
811 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE PARENT LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. PRIMARILY TO FOCUS THESE CHANCES ONLY ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ABOVE THRESHOLD VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GENERALLY KEEP A TROUGH IN THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY. 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BUT IT DOES HAVE THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND HANGS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. AND WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BACK NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT SOME 60S IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
1250 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE 5000 FT CEILINGS AS THE LOWEST. A LEESIDE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AROUND EXTRM ERN NM OR OUR FAR WRN ZONES. ALONG WITH THE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO ACTING AS FOCUSING FEATURES.
956 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS.
1156 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF OHIO. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INCREASING SOME CLOUDS OVER IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VCSH WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED -SHRA AND SPRINKLES. -SHRA WL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z BUT SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TROF LINGERS OVER AREA THRU MID-MRNG. THERMAL TROF AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WL CONTINUE TO BRING STRATUS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPPER LOW WL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM WEAK KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING SRN CANADA. WITH THERMAL TROF SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING COLUMN MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BIT COOLER TODAY.
952 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMPARED WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS ABOVE 16. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
852 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY.