Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We will continue to see warm air and moisture advect through tonight and ahead of a cold front on Friday. The cold front will begin to move into southeastern Kansas and the Ozarks after 1 pm Friday and should progress fairly quickly through the area.
1002 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Wx map shows high pressure off the East Coast, with strong low pressure over E CO/W KS, with a tight pressure gradient in between these two features. The low is expected to deepen further overnight and Friday as it approaches the area, which will increase the pressure gradient further over our region. /issued 342 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ Southerly flow has prevailed throughout the region today and wind speeds are expected to increase through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
749 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Another update here this evening, to cancel the High Wind Warning that was in effect for the southern Laramie Range & I-25 corridor this evening. Winds have weakened this evening, thus no longer warranting the High Wind Warning. So, went ahead and let the High Wind Warning expire on schedule at 6 PM for the Laramie Valley. Quite varied weather expected over the next 36 hours as an upper low deepens over Colorado overnight then moves out into the central plains Friday. A cold front is currently moving east across the CWA and nearing Laramie. Some indication of dry slotting over the plains overnight but then should see rain and snow build south later tonight as the surface and upper lows edge into the plains, continuing through Friday, all snow on Friday.
1103 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 All eyes are focused on the approaching western CONUS trough. Ahead of the trough, ample low level moisture is already being drawn north out of TX and that will continue overnight tonight aided by a developing low-level jet. At this time, most of the high-res models develop a broken line of thunderstorms west of the forecast area by 2-3 pm and then move the activity east-northeast.
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 All eyes are focused on the approaching western CONUS trough. Ahead of the trough, ample low level moisture is already being drawn north out of TX and that will continue overnight tonight aided by a developing low-level jet. At this time, most of the high-res models develop a broken line of thunderstorms west of the forecast area by 2-3 pm and then move the activity east-northeast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 82 60 76 / 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 81 60 77 / 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 54 81 58 76 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 81 52 78 / 0 0 10 20.
Lows will be considerably warmer tonight with lows in the mid 50s (low 60s along the coast).
With time, the warm front will become more established over extreme southern Iowa to just south of I-80 in Illinois. Storm system over the central Plains will significantly crank up on Friday, with the synoptic models showing minor differences with the low centered near southeast Nebraska by late afternoon.
813 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure, warming, and drying trend into the weekend.
18Z surface data has the cold front from Chicago back across northern Missouri. fair or average with marginal confidence on timing and confidence of cold front and associated impacts with the front.
825 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as Atlantic high pressure ridges back westward to the I-10 corridor. with lows by dawn ranging from the mid/upper 50s north of Brooksville to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere. Weather continues mostly dry and even warmer for your Friday. This process will continue into the weekend as a strong cold front moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and deep south.
Swly flow aloft is already beginning to take shape ahead of a deepening upper trof over the wrn CONUS. Sly sfc flow continues to bring increasing low level moisture to our region, which will prime us for the upper low's approach Friday. If we are able to get some cells going ahead of the cold front, perhaps as the dryline races ewd towards our region early Friday aftn, this will add another dimension to the linear storm structure that appears more likely later in the afternoon/evening.
The remnants of the small low pressure system continues to move north through the forecast area this morning with some isolated to scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. The upper level ridge over the region is shifting to the east allowing an upper level trough to move into the region. The leading edge of the trough will push a cold front across the forecast area late tonight and Sunday. The front could produce some light steady rain as it passes but the main impact will be cooler temperatures and enough westerly winds to finally mix out most of the smoke in the forecast area. Scattered showers are possible across the Lower Columbia Basin until 22Z this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening across the higher elevations as a trough crosses the region.
The mid/upper low slowly meanders into the southern James River Valley after midnight. Will need to monitor the low level lapse rates and surface vorticity for any potential landspouts that could develop within this area.
Mid level ridge stretched across northern Mexico and southern half of Texas continues over the weekend. However, enough moisture in the lower levels will continue to lead to hot and humid conditions with heat index values reaching over 105 degrees across most locations. Winds will begin to pick up this afternoon due to an area of low pressure moving east across north Texas. Breezy conditions will be possible again Sunday/Sunday night due to areas of low pressure from the southern high plains down into northeast Mexico.
An upper level trough will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures inland and a deep marine layer at the coast.
322 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Dry weather can be expected with Sunday high pressure.
An 850mb ridge extended from central OK through the IA-NE border into MB.
102 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure will keep the weather quiet today for the Midwest. Northerly winds generally less than 10kts for the morning and temperatures already into the lower 70s. Quiet weather on tap in the short term, as high pressure settles across the Midwest through tonight. The area of high pressure will slowly edge eastward early in the week, preventing any meaningful moisture return into our area.
330 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest and settle into central NC overnight then stall. Scattered convection will continue to percolate across central NC into the evening hours as a weak mid level trough drifts east across the region. Convection will be more concentrated in the east vs west due to the proximity of the 850mb trough. however, should see an increase in convective coverage late this evening/overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The sfc cold front will stall in vicinity of highway 64 as it becomes parallel to the flow aloft. Thereafter, guidance suggests central NC will be situated at the southern periphery of the westerlies, on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge progged to amplify over the Deep South.
335 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure is keeping mild and quiet weather in place for the weekend in the Midwest. Overnight, winds light and variable as the ridge remains anchored in the region.
144 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure and dry air will build in from the west.
WNW in the mid/upper levels and SSE in the lower levels. Have kept temps more in line with the "cooler" NAM/ECMWF as the low levels will remain quite moist. with the ridge shifting to the southeast Gulf coast.
Drier and more stable southwest flow aloft will keep storm chances confined to northwest Arizona Sunday then dry and a little cooler conditions can be expected during the coming week as a low pressure system moves over the western states. The main focus for thunderstorms on Sunday will be over the higher terrain of Mohave County. High pressure associated with the monsoon will is being pushed off to the east, allowing the dry air to move in from the west. A broad trough of low pressure in the north Pacific off the WA/OR coast will move southward down the coast over the next couple days, keeping a dry southwest flow over the area and bringing cooler temperatures.
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through the first half of the week.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning as the short wave trough that brought them out of eastern Colorado late last evening continues eastward across Kansas. Temperatures are expected to be warmer today than yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s extending from the Nebraska panhandle region along the eastern Colorado border region. This will produce an axis of greater instability extending from western Nebraska through eastern Colorado from mid-day through early evening as a short wave trough aloft sweeps east of the Rockies and across Nebraska and Kansas this evening.
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes extends surface ridging over our area today resulting in a very nice Saturday.
with the area sitting between high pressure to the east and a lee-side trough over the Front Range. skies are mainly partly sunny with temperatures ranging in the mid 70s up to the lower 80s. Lee-side trough over the Front Range will begin to meander east into the Plains and lift slowly northeast. Lee-side troughing sets up again but models hold the system over eastern Colorado during the day. off of overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s into the lower 60s. Overnight lows will be mainly in the low 60s.
Mostly likely scenario will be to see some afternoon development over the high Plains as unseasonably moist airmass remains in place. The GFS is more robust in upper troughing over the Great Basin into the Rockies and would result in more widespread shower/storm chances for Wed-Thu.
The upcoming week still looks warmer and wetter as the upper level flow shifts from northwest to southwest with a large upper trough moving into the western CONUS.
Plenty of moisture will linger as a weak cold front pushes in and stalls.
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Cold front and showers exit the mountains this evening. High pressure crosses to north Sunday.
1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Upper level analysis has large trough persisting across the eastern half of the CONUS. while ridging remains over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is located across MN with weak low pressure across MT and WY. Another weak impulse will move through the ridge late in the day, with showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly across northeast WY and southern SD.
139 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front approaches the region today and passes through tonight.
Ketcham Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of the week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps by the end of the work week with highs climbing back into the low 90s.
The mid and upper level ridge will remain in place across south central Texas through Sunday night.
236 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 232 PM CDT A broad upper level trough continues to swing across the Great Lakes this afternoon.
114 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Aviation An isolated shower or two are expected today as a cool airmass flows over the warmer Great Lakes.
Upper trough over the northern high plains may lead to some lingering thunderstorms over the eastern border counties late today into the evening. A few convective cells may also form over the higher terrain this evening. High pressure will build over the region for Sunday leading to warmer conditions. That looks short lived however, as an upper low centered over British Columbia exerts its influence and pushes a good deal of energy and associated cold front into the Pacific NW and northern Rockies.
Low pressure over Quebec continues to move away from northern MI. Mainly quiet for Sunday, as high pressure moves directly over lower MI during the day.
459 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front and associated upper-level trough are moving through our region this evening. Cooler and drier air should replace the humid air mass. A weak trough will dominate our weather most of the week as a ridge builds over the southern US.
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 It is another warm day with temperatures in the lower 90s and heat indices around 105F. Temperatures will be warm once again, with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices 102-107F.
Storm activity late this afternoon and tonight could organize into 3 clusters off the Colo front range, Laramie range and Black Hills/White river valley where a warm front will be located. South winds redevelop Sunday and this, presumably, will support highs in the lower 80s with partly cloudy skies.
A trough over Michigan will move south across the lake later this evening. The post trough subsidence and drying will help erode clouds leading to a mostly clear overnight. Given the colder start to the day it will likely be a few degrees cooler than today.
300 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure resulting in a great August weekend for outdoor activities. This Evening and Tonight Similar to last night, with high pressure over the Upper Midwest, lows are forecast in the lower to middle 50s on avg. However, there will be an upper low over Minnesota and cold front through NW Iowa. Uttech High pressure retreating to the east and the onset of warm advection will lead to a warming trend early in the week.
Overnight lows were much cooler the last couple nights than model guidance suggested, due to the rain- cooled air from evening and overnight shower activity.
Dewpoints in this region were in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 439 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/ Today's upper pattern will remain a bit unusual for mid-August, with a broad low amplitude 592dm 500mb height ridge centered over northwest Mexico, extending eastward through central and southern TX. At the surface, a weak pressure trof along I-40 early this morning will drop south, with light northerly winds prevailing over most of the Midsouth.
456 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late today.
639 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Low pressure will drag a trailing cold front through New England Sunday morning.
With near neutral low-level thermal advection, lows tonight should be near, to perhaps a degree or two warmer, than last night. Downstream surface and mid-level ridging centered over the Great Lakes should hold enough influence to keep any precipitation associated with the wave to our northwest during this time. With southerly return flow we'll see some weak warm advection with temperatures likely a degree or two warmer than on Saturday.
and further storms are possible into the afternoon, mainly east and south of a BWG to LEX line, as a cold front continues pushing through the region. Surface cold front is making its way SE across the area in pieces, as SDF has already seen a wind shift to NW, but radar fineline and lower dewpoints are still back over southern Indiana. Otherwise, after a cloudy and muggy start, dewpoints will drop off through the day as a bubble of high pressure builds from the Upper Midwest.
Departing upper low could still generate a few rain showers and thunderstorms over eastern counties before it fully exits the region later this evening. After midnight and through Sunday, the main influence on the forecast will be a narrow, but amplified upper ridge east of the Divide. Most of the cloud cover from the departing trough will leave the area Sunday for a sunny day. With increasing heights, and thermal ridge developing east of the Front Range, temperatures will nudge up closer to normal - most highs in the 80s. The upper trough over British Columbia will extend into the Pacific Northwest Sunday night. A local vorticity maxima out ahead of that trough will eject toward eastern MT on southwest flow aloft.
Starting tonight, an approaching cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. The cold front is still on track to push through central Idaho and northwest Montana Sunday morning and west-central and southwest Montana Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also be much cooler with highs in the 70s for many valleys and 80s for the lower elevation valleys of central Idaho.
A mainly dry day is expected Sunday as a weak upper ridge briefly builds over the region, although an even weaker wave passing through the ridge may produce some storms mainly across the southwestern 1/3 of the CWA.
540 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Mainly dry weather is expected under high pressure through the first half of the new week, though a weak disturbance could return low shower chances early in the week south of I 68. Isolated showers should exit WV/MD early this evening with an exiting cold front. Any chance of rain during the beginning of the work week will be contained to locations south and east of Pittsburgh, primarily in the highest elevations.
525 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front and associated upper-level trough are moving through our region this evening. Cooler and drier air should replace the humid air mass. A weak trough will dominate our weather most of the week as a ridge builds over the southern US.
with the area sitting between high pressure to the east and a lee-side trough over the Front Range. skies are mainly partly sunny with temperatures ranging in the mid 70s up to the lower 80s. Lee-side trough over the Front Range will begin to meander east into the Plains and lift slowly northeast. Lee-side troughing sets up again but models hold the system over eastern Colorado during the day. off of overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s into the lower 60s.
Low pressure off the California coast will maintain mild temperatures through the period with the normal night and morning coastal stratus. The stronger onshore gradient resulted in a slower burn off of the low clouds over the Bay Area as well as over the Monterey Peninsula and will likely result in an earlier return of the stratus this evening. Observations over the last several hours showed temperatures starting off slightly cooler than yesterday likely the result of lingering cloud cover this morning. The stronger onshore flow will also likely result in cooler afternoon highs. While slightly cooler, highs will still finish off the day in the 60s along the coast, 70s around the bays, 80s inland and 90s over the warmest inland valley locations. Little change is expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
335 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure over the area will slide east to the Great lakes by tonight.
Weak cold front trailing the system will continue to brush across Southeast Michigan for the next several hours, and will continue to expand current area of showers further south and sustain precipitation chances through the early evening. High pressure expanding in from the west will create favorable radiational cooling conditions overnight. Cool, almost fall-like, atmosphere tonight will allow min temps to fall to the low/mid 50s for most of southeast Michigan, with warmer readings closer to 60 near the Detroit urban heat island. The center of high pressure will slide into Michigan tomorrow, providing a dry and quiet day.
The higher-resolution short-term model runs all hint at thunderstorms firing late afternoon Sunday just north of the forecast area before moving southeast into the area Sunday evening and night. Temperatures continue to max out in the low 80s for Sunday which is still slightly below norms or mid-August.
Subjective surface analysis at 13z shows expansive ridge of high pressure from the surface to H700. Lower levels show lee side development taking place over South Dakota at the surface with an H850 trough beginning to take shape over the Western Plains at H850. tracking mainly with the low to mid level warm air advection/thetae advective processes. cloud cover should hinder afternoon warming north areas while the south with some afternoon sunshine will again drift into the lower 80s by late afternoon. Typically warmer conditions will be found in the metro. Highs Sunday will struggle to reach the lower 70s north and reach the lower 80s south.
Clear skies and high pressure have allowed temperatures to bottom out in the 50s across the area this morning. This high pressure is the main weather producer for the short term period. This morning a 20 knot H85 jet will bring sustained winds near 10 kts with gusts in the teens, this with the high pressure will lead to beautiful sensible weather day.
310 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 80s across the I-30 corridor to the lower 90s across deep East Texas. Temperatures on Sunday to be much cooler across the ArklaTex with highs ranging from the mid 70s across to the Ozarks, the mid 80s across I-20, and lower 90s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Upper-level flow to become zonal on Sunday as ridge begins to flatten across northern Mexico.
Low pressure off the California coast will maintain mild temperatures through the period with the normal night and morning coastal stratus. Little change is expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
The latest water vapor loops show a nice wave across North Dakota with a moderate jet max wrapping around the south side of this low pressure. Slow moving upper level trough exits the region Sunday night.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over the northern Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Once the high based cu dissipates, high pressure will provide mostly clear and quiet conditions for much of the night. Min temps should range from the lower to mid 40s in the cold spots to mid 50s near the Lake. Temps will be near todays readings, perhaps a degree warmer.
Of greater note is potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms across northern portions of the southeast plains this evening along a sfc trof/outflow boundary. Once again, thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon, however focus will also occur along the surface trof axis across the plains.
The low pressure system responsible for all the shower and thunderstorm activity will linger into Sunday morning with precipitation chances across the eastern CWA through a good chunk of the afternoon. The period begins with a weak upper level ridge crossing the region with dry conditions expected.
96, but this is all trapped in the lowest 4000 feet of the atmosphere. Mid level ridging continues across most of Texas, further enhancing the capping in the atmosphere.
Progressive trough in weak westerly flow continues to topple the remnants of the upper ridge just east of our forecast area. Corridor of mostly light to moderate rain (with at least one embedded MCV) within this trough will progress ENE across the CWA, but undergo additional decay per recent cloud top warming over a large area. HRRR continues to outperform the core models with this system and aligns well with our thinking of some progressive drying/clearing from W-E today behind the trough. This clearing should fuel some destabilization for a few late afternoon and evening storms, but overall subsidence behind the trough may greatly hinder this opportunity.
Efficient cooling and dry air advection will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s to mid 50s again across the CWA, so have bumped lows down for tonight by a notch.
652 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front and associated upper-level trough are moving through our region this evening. Cooler and drier air should replace the humid air mass. A weak trough will dominate our weather most of the week as a ridge builds over the southern US.
Thanks to the ample cloud cover this morning, temperatures have been slow to take off so Highs in the low to mid 80s still seems reasonable.
MDB 230 AM CDT A broad upper trough is currently in place over much of the Great Lakes region.