Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE 9 AM REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UNEVENTFUL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THERE APPEARED TO BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MOS AND HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING.
1136 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A ROBUST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN. ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND REACHES WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS RECORDED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS TROUGH, CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST, WILL SWING EAST TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TONIGHT.
1105 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
TRICKY CALL AS WE ARE ISOTHERMAL BUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT FARTHER SOUTH WE WARM ALOFT SO IT MAY BE A FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS, I ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZING RAIN ISSUE AS WE WARM ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT COOLER NUMBERS THAN WHAT MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST, BUT EVEN SOME GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE NEAR 32 AT KRME AND KMSV. STILL THINK FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS EAST OF I-81 IN NY.
WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, LOOK FOR WARM, MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
Lingering mountain showers Wednesday, otherwise dry and warmer for the latter part of the week. A cold upper low from the Gulf of Alaska is centered just west of the California/Oregon border. By Wednesday the low is moving well to the east and most places will remain dry.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND NRN CA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED.
THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING THE PARENT LOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREA COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE BAY AREA BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH. A COLD FRONT MOVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS THAT COULD OCCUR AROUND THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE MAKING FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS WHERE TEMPS HOVER NEAR FREEZING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
658 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015 TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY TO STAY SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
The warm front has setup and is sitting right through central IL, north of a Quincy to Springfield to Mattoon line, which puts half of the cwa south of the front, and the I-74 area, including Lincoln, north of the front. The warm front should become a little more active this evening and shift north, as the first in a series of low pressure areas moves along the frontal zone. As this first low moves east, it will drag the cold front south through the cwa, so pops for Wed morning will be higher to the south and only a slight chance in the north.
Cloud cover and a fresh snowpack will limit highs today as temperatures will only reach the lower 20s to near 30. High pressure will build into the area late this afternoon and remain over the area through tonight allow temperatures to dip into the teens.
1238 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY COULD OVERSPREAD SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. A RAPID EVOLVING SITUATION IS TAKING PLACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH OF I-70 AND FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/MD. A DEEP TROUGH AND ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
The main focus is a cold front dropping south through the area, currently just south of KMAF, which will move through KINK, KCNM, and KPEQ within the first hour so of forecast issuance.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL MAKE A RETURN APPEARANCE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH SOME TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPREADING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ELSEWHERE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE COLUMN WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENTLY INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS REMAINING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
338 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2015 Upper trough axis was entering the southern High Plains early this morning with upstream cloud tops cooling, but snowfall was steadily ending from north to south, along and south of Interstate 70 at 08Z as winds from 2k to 9k feet veer and increase, bringing drier air in. This veered wind will bring in moderately warmer low-level air for a noticeably warmer day in the west, though stayed closer to the cooler NAM MOS values with some cloud, lighter winds, and recent snow. Models are in good agreement with winds around 850mb veering ahead of a cold front overnight for anywhere from minor to strong frontogenesis to occur, depending on the model.
MORE FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE SMOKIES. LA CONTE MAY SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A TIME TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF DRY TO THE REGION AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 270K SURFACE WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER VALUES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS HUDSONS BAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
349 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH NO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. TUCKER COUNTY WV IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW RATIOS PROGGED. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
414 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
1004 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2015 Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the week under high pressure ridging. High pressure ridge will continue to become stronger over the region through Monday. A weak circulation dropping south over the ridge is bring some high clouds over the area today. Weak disturbances moving south over the top of the ridge the next couple of days may continue to bring some high clouds to the area.
COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER NEAR NOON.
WE EXPECT THAT THE LOWS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST VS.
132 AM PST MON FEB 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EXPAND INLAND BY MIDWEEK, CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
WITH A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. REINFORCED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WITH RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK LIFT. WILL BE WARMER MONDAY. THOUGH APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THIS AREA BEING MORE DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN TROUGH. LEAD COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING GENERATED BY THIS TROUGH AS IT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUSHING A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
344 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVES EAST WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH. THE HIGHER 925 MB RH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRIEFLY DRIES A LITTLE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
1155 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL TRY TO KEEP THE THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A FDY TO MFD TO YNG LINE. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING THE ADVERTISED SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEN EYES TURN TO YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE AND USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY SUNSET.
LOCAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE NRN ZONES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT CLOSER TO A SFC TROF/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT SOME FOG COULD STILL FORM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS. BEHIND THE LINE IS THE COLD FRONT. COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS. SO ANY REMAINING WET SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES COULD POTENTIALLY FREEZE OVER BRIEFLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST TOTAL WILL BE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN SOME AND TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
THOSE RETURNS ARE WHAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS THEY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT INTO AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THOSE AREAS FOR A CHANCE OF TRAVEL ISSUES RELATED TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN A BIG CONCERN AT CHA FOR THE LATE MORING HOURS.
Starting to see first area of precipitation showing up on the regional radar from the high Plains into northern and central MO. Will still take a bit of time to saturate the lower levels given the very dry Arctic air mass. Several bands of heavy snow will be possible and where/if these bands move across the same locations, that will be where the highest storm total snows occur. Would not be surprised to see isolated areas receive higher amounts with this system over the eastern Ozarks due to the convective potential and the higher (13-14:1) snow/liquid ratios we are using for this event. Mean upper trough position will remain over the Central U.
MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY OF AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
IFR ELSEWHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. LOCAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING MAINLY OVER THE NRN ZONES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT CLOSER TO A SFC TROF/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT SOME FOG COULD STILL FORM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS. BEHIND THE LINE IS THE COLD FRONT. COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS. SO ANY REMAINING WET SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES COULD POTENTIALLY FREEZE OVER BRIEFLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ALONG A KBCE-KAIB-KMTJ-KLXV LINE AT 2 PM MST. NAM INDICATED AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHILE GFS AND ECMWF WERE A BIT MORE UNDERSTATED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
With continued snow and a north wind, temperatures today will remain in the low to mid 20s.
HOWEVER, THE HIGH QPF VALUES OVER THE SOUTH SUGGEST THAT AREAS THAT DON'T SEE THAT MUCH SNOW WILL SEE A BOAT LOAD OF SLEET INSTEAD, AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRETTY THICK LAYER OF FREEZING TEMPS NEAR THE GROUND (ON THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K FT) WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED, EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ALABAMA BORDER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHERE MIXED PRECIP OCCURS, IT WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARD SLEET RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN FOR TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN ALMOST ALL AREAS COULD GET AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES, AS OUR LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS EAST.
Worst case scenario would be to see initial snow melt on roadways gradually icing up overnight as temperatures fall into the low 20s and ground temperatures drop below freezing.
240 AM MST MON FEB 16 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BRINGING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB -24C TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 90 TO 110 METER 12HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WE OBSERVED JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM DENVER TO NORTH PLATTE AND DODGE CITY. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT 00Z MONDAY. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER AREA APPEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BASED ON NORTH PLATTE SOUNDINGS.
939 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through midweek with a little lingering fog Monday.
HAVE NOT ANALYZED IN DETAIL THE 00Z NAM, BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE STILL GIVES CONCERN THAT THE FAR NW TIP OF AL INTO SRN TN MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A MORE PROLONGED ICING EPISODE ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP TO LIQUID BY 15-17Z WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY. THE -RA WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF -SN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS BACK THRU THE REGION AND LOWERS TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
THE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 COULD REACH 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER. QPF AMOUNTS ARE HUGE AND LETS HOPE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THAT FALLS AS SLEET AND NOT FREEZING RAIN.
A BAND OF STEADIER SNOWFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING RELATED WELL WITH A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS CROSSING EASTERN COLORADO AS OF 06Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND EVEN THE HRRR HINT AT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STATUS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH THE SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
RANGING FROM A HALF INCH OUT BY BRIDGEPORT TO 2 INCHES AT GLENDO. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE FRI AND INTO SAT. AXIS OF TROUGH IS IN UTAH ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA.
A SYSTEM PRESSING SOUTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
BRINGING WITH IT A VERY SHALLOW AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS RETAINED AN EASTERLY DIRECTION UP TO 3 KFT AND TEMPERATURES STARTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST LOCATING ITSELF ACROSS ALABAMA TONIGHT AND OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING THROUGH H8 AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER REST OF CWA WITH SOME LIFT SO MAY SEE SOME LGT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES TEMPS IN THE LOWR TO MID TEENS MOST PLACES. SLIGHTLY COOLER FAR EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WITH BREEZY WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT LIKELY FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
409 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WERE POCKETS OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVEN THERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH FREEZING.
SHARP U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN EXTENSIVE L/W TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM U/L CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CA WHICH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP. A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY. WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THE SOUTHEAST U. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH U/L FORCING WILL ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF SHOWERS.
WITH A RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER ERN NOAM. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN RIDGE WL CYCLE UP AND DOWN. BUT IT APPEARS THE ERN TROF WL REACH IT/S PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
A cold front to move se across central/se IL Tue morning and generally move through dry with limited moisture. 00Z forecast models continue to dig a strong upper level trof southward into the Midwest including IL Tue night and Wed with another surge of arctic air into the region. Scattered flurries with mostly cloudy skies to accompany this trof along with bitter cold temperatures. Strong upper level trof starts to shift east of IL Thu but still very cold Thu with arctic high pressure moving into MS river valley. As high pressure drifts east of IL late this week and upper level heights and 850 mb temps elevate, temps to moderate to mildest readings on Sat in low to mid 30s for highs.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE AREA. THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. STRONG N TO NW FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES ONCE THE COLD AIR MASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL KEEP PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH CONTINUING THE CAA ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 24 HRS AS THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
WITH FREEZING RAIN REPORTED MAINLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. WILL REFRESH THE WSW TO REFLECT THE HIGHER 12 HOUR AMOUNTS.