Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 71 90 71 93 / 70 30 30 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 90 69 92 / 20 20 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 90 69 91 / 20 20 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 65 88 65 90 / 10 10 10 0 10.
141 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Upper low/trough over eastern Oregon this afternoon was shifting east with backing winds and showers over western Montana.
Fairly quiet weather to start the weekend across Nebraska with cool high pressure centered over the High Plains. Expect weak short wave energy will move through flat ridging and push some cloudiness from the south into the state by this afternoon. High pressure will move off to our east with a warm front moving across the region. However as storms grow upscale the core of the low level jet will be moving more into eastern Nebraska over time, taking the severe threat to our east Sunday evening. Extended ensemble guidance continues to feature low amplitude ridging in a progressive flow regime allowing for a steady stream of short waves to ripple through the flow.
Ridging was noted along the gulf coast. At the surface, a cold front had pushed into the TX panhandle and the Ozarks. The pattern over the next several days keeps the upper ridge over the southern plains while the mean westerlies impact the northern tier of the country. With the dry air moving south tonight and skies mainly clear, think lows will fall into the lower and middle 60s. With this highs are expected to be back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
(This evening through Sunday) Current surface analysis shows a cold front sneaking into NW OK, with an outflow boundary extending W/E near the I-40 corridor and then slightly NE to near SWO.
High pressure centered over the Plains will drift east across the area tonight, with winds dying off this evening and mostly clear skies through the night. Low pressure will emerge from the high Plains late Sunday morning, then move east through the day into Sunday night.
Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery shows a clear, persistent convergence axis (almost a warm front) draped from Paducah KY SSE to about near Muscle Shoals. A strong storm or two are possible as well should we ever realize any clearing in this low stratus deck. We'll start to see building upper-level heights as the upper-level ridge over ArkLaTex builds eastward into Mississippi and Alabama.
1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A cold front will move east through the area this morning. On Sunday, high pressure will provide dry weather.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level high is currently centered near the ArkLaTex region. This high will slowly build west into our region during the short term period. Highs today will be near normal with highs in the 90s across a majority of the area, upper 80s in the higher terrain, and low 100s in the Rio Grande Valley. Lows will be a bit warmer than normal with plentiful moisture across the region. By Sunday, the ridge will continue to build and weak subsidence will overspread much of the area. Rainfall chances will end for much of the region as a result with only an isolated chance of a thunderstorm over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico. Low tempertures will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as we begin to dry out.
1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A strong, negatively tilted trough was moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early this morning. Its associated cold front was pushing through the forecast area with the line of convection now slowly pushing south and east of the forecast area. A slightly cooler but noticeably drier air mass will settle over the area today.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level high pressure ridge will bring dry weather during tonight and Sunday.
The disturbance should send a dryline and weak cold front through wrn Nebraska during the afternoon. The models are in very good agreement building an upper level ridge across Texas north toward Nebraska early this week.
Thereafter, mid/upper level ridging will begin to build into the region from the southern Plains. An upper-level ridge over the middle of the country will begin the week. This ridge will build northward and westward through the middle of the week, which will place the northern storm system track closer to the Great Lakes.
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 West Texas is situated between an elongated high along the Gulf Coast and a negatively tilted trough just east of the northern Rockies. The gradual increase in geopotential heights as the mid/upper-level anticyclone centers over the southern Great Plains will cause surface temperatures to rise into the middle-upper 90s, while nearing and/or breaching 100 degrees in areas along and east of the edge of the Caprock escarpment.
Continued hot and dry weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend with a strong ridge of mid/upper level high pressure the dominate feature. The ridge is centered just north of SE Texas and is resulting in upper level subsidence over the region.
319 PM MST Sat Aug 21 2021 Storm activity will be on a gradual rise over the next couple of days with best chances remaining over the higher elevations and in areas to the south and east of Tucson.
625 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 VFR conditions continue this evening into tonight as high pressure remains overhead.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level high is currently centered near the ArkLaTex region. This high will slowly build west into our region during the short term period. Highs today will be near normal with highs in the 90s across a majority of the area, upper 80s in the higher terrain, and low 100s in the Rio Grande Valley. Lows will be a bit warmer than normal with plentiful moisture across the region. By Sunday, the ridge will continue to build and weak subsidence will overspread much of the area. Rainfall chances will end for much of the region as a result with only an isolated chance of a thunderstorm over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 71 92 71 / 30 40 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 69 91 70 / 30 30 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 68 91 70 / 20 30 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 65 90 67 / 10 10 0 10 0.
Thunderstorm activity will begin to taper off this evening as the upper trough pushes eastward and instability weakens after sunset.
Gusty winds are prevalent across the region this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that now resides over eastern Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. An upper level trough will continue to drift northeast into Ontario this evening, which will cause the cloud cover and sprinkles across the region this afternoon to diminish fairly quickly around sunset along with the gusty winds. Breezy southerly winds are expected especially to the west as the pressure gradient tightens up behind the departing high pressure to the east. An upper level trough with an weak attendant cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening and night.
The 00Z XMR sounding shows some dry air filtering into the upper levels, but still a fairly moist profile through the low and mid levels, with PW value of 1. Temperatures were hot and humid once again this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 105-112.
659 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Current surface analysis shows a cold front sneaking into NW OK, with an outflow boundary extending W/E near the I-40 corridor and then slightly NE to near SWO.
Adjusted PoP chances up slightly CWA-wide given CAM support and saturated environment as perturbations move within the periphery of the trough.
1019 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Currently - Lower level ridging across Florida and through the Gulf of Mexico is gradually strengthening. Short Term Update - Ridging will dominate overnight across the broader area. The steady breeze will slow any nocturnal cooling and temps are expected to fall only another degree or two in to the lower 80s. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
403 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Tonight and Sunday: Despite the low level boundaries and better flow, deep convection has been slow to develop this afternoon due in large part to the proximity of the mid level ridge centered over east TX. The sprawling ridge will once again allow temperatures to climb as mid 90s look probable.
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A cold front was working its way through the area this afternoon. High pressure just north of the region will allow for light winds. This is located along the periphery of a developing upper level ridge.
The mid/upper low over WV/northern VA, which is helping to direct Henri northward, is also directing minor impulses into the area from the NW. Northeast SC zones will have the highest chances for showers/tstms this afternoon/early evening, but expect better chances into southeast NC zones as well during Sunday afternoon/evening. Rain chances continue for the Short Term period, however they will be a bit lower than Sun as an upr-level trough axis pulls offshore. A much juicier airmass Sun will aid in getting tstorms started by noon, with the sfc sea breeze boundary and sheared mid-level vort rounding the upper trof both aiding. Scattered thunderstorms expected to fire along the daily sea breeze and the Piedmont trof of the Carolinas each day.
Stout sub-tropical ridging remains centered over the ArkLaTex this evening. Low temperatures will be mild in the low to mid 70s. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Sunday: Despite the low level boundaries and better flow, deep convection has been slow to develop this afternoon due in large part to the proximity of the mid level ridge centered over east TX. The sprawling ridge will once again allow temperatures to climb as mid 90s look probable.
/TW/ Tonight and Sunday: Despite the low level boundaries and better flow, deep convection has been slow to develop this afternoon due in large part to the proximity of the mid level ridge centered over east TX. The sprawling ridge will once again allow temperatures to climb as mid 90s look probable.
/issued 358 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021/ 591DM ridge centered along the TX/LA border continues to be the biggest influence on the local weather. The eastern side of the nearby ridge looks to erode slightly tomorrow. At the same time, temps should still be quite warm, in the mid 90s with the ridge still as close as it is. Another aspect that'll start to change tomorrow due some erosion of the ridge is a few more updrafts actually developing into storms and not being capped. The ridging aloft will be a little weaker each day.
Winds should increase overnight as downward omega strengthens & 700-800 mb flow increases with the passage of the trough axis. A generally warm & dry forecast period expected as ridging remains in control aloft for much of the central and eastern US. Should see showery activity throughout the evening, and even into tomorrow early morning for KRWL, with an upper level trough digging to the east/southeast across the CWA through tomorrow morning. A change toward considerably warmer & drier conditions will likely yield critical fire weather conditions for areas along and east of I-25 on Sunday.
Chambers Upper low/trough over eastern Oregon this afternoon was shifting east with backing winds and showers over western Montana.
Then post-frontal ridge to slide in and scour out things with lower RH and cooler temps. Lows in the lower 60s southeast, to the mid 50s northwest. High pressure with northeasterly sfc winds under pronounced H85 to H8 MB inversion. Limited mixing may keep high temps more in the low 80s, but sunshine and lower DPTs/lowered RH's may allow heating into the mid 80s in some locations. That repeating process is known for knocking down the ridge placement, and allowing the convectively active warm frontal zone to shift southward with time.
722 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level high pressure ridge will bring dry weather during tonight and Sunday.
/issued 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021/ West Texas is situated between an elongated high along the Gulf Coast and a negatively tilted trough just east of the northern Rockies. The gradual increase in geopotential heights as the mid/upper-level anticyclone centers over the southern Great Plains will cause surface temperatures to rise into the middle-upper 90s, while nearing and/or breaching 100 degrees in areas along and east of the edge of the Caprock escarpment.
340 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Mid-level heights are building over the Lower MS Valley, indicating the much advertised pattern chance is commencing. The subtropical ridge is currently anchored over east TX and LA, nosing poleward to near Lake Michigan. A weak cold front will dip into the area this morning, bringing drier air into the region. Afternoon dewpoints are forecast to remain in the mid 70s with temperatures climbing into the low/mid 90s.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 71 92 71 93 / 40 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 69 91 70 93 / 20 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 91 70 92 / 20 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 65 90 67 92 / 10 10 10 0 10.
Unsettled pattern to bring showers and TSTMs today at base of upper trough, while helping lift surface boundary near and along the NE SC and SE NC border today. As upper low north of the area continues its exit to the northeast, moist environment remains through midweek with PWATs near 2".
1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level high pressure ridge will bring dry weather during tonight and Sunday.
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A low pressure system continues to sit over New England, but that's not stopping a positively tilted upper ridge from stretching from Texas towards Lake Huron. This places the ridge over the CWA. Tonight, winds go mostly calm and skies remain mostly clear as high pressure and upper ridging take a stronger hold over the area. Louisville remains warmer in the mid 70s. Strong upper level ridge centered near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning will result in a hot and muggy week ahead for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Afternoon highs will steadily climb going into midweek as the ridge slowly inches toward the region.
322 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A weak cold front will bring slightly less humid conditions to central Illinois today. Cold front continues to inch eastward early this morning, with 07z/2am wind analysis suggesting it is now along I-57. Drier air is trickling into the western KILX CWA as evidenced by dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s well behind the front across the Illinois River Valley.
Overall expecting quiet weather Sunday and Monday as an upper level low over the Mid Atlantic interacts with Henri in New England Sunday night into Monday. The weak low to our S/SE moves to the coast on Monday, and with high pressure over the area it will be another mostly clear to partly cloudy day. Afternoon temps will be a couple degrees warmer ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A strong 500mb ridge will continue to provide subsidence across the region through the forecast period.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in dry conditions.
At 3 AM, an upper level trough was evident on satellite over Montana/Idaho/Wyoming. This should prime the atmosphere with 1500-2500 j/kg of MLCAPE ahead of an advancing cold front, and lead to scattered thunderstorm development across central Nebraska between 5 PM and 8 PM. Warmer with Lingering Storm Chances Monday: Model guidance suggests a stalled front across our region Monday.
No major changes were made to the forecast this evening as high pressure overhead will keep the quiet, repetitive, and dry forecast ongoing through the next couple of days. /issued 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021/ VFR conditions continue this evening into tonight as high pressure remains overhead. Another hot and dry day today thanks to the upper level ridge that is situated over the region. We can expect conditions similar to yesterday to persist today and tomorrow before the ridge relocates itself northwest of the CWA.
433 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A weak trough of low pressure will approach the area today and then dissipate, offering an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. High pressure will follow and prevail for the early part of the week resulting in hot and humid conditions. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Mid level ridge top begin building into the region Monday. A mid level high will be centered over the central plains states Monday night with a ridge axis oriented toward the northeastern United States. At the same time, the long wave trough will be situated over the west coast with short wave energy ejecting over the north side of the high into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
307 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A return to generally benign weather is expected across the CWA today as an upper level anticyclone continues to build over Texas. This will be occurring in tandem with the departure of upper troughing over the Rockies, resulting in a slight veering of upper level flow as the day progresses. Another impact of the building upper level ridge over Texas will be an increase in afternoon high temperatures, especially over the Rolling Plains. /DWK No major changes once again with upper level high pressure expected to build across the area early to mid week with 500 millibar heights in the lower to mid 590's.
1131 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A cold front was working its way through the area this afternoon. High pressure just north of the region will allow for light winds. This is located along the periphery of a developing upper level ridge.
212 AM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Upper trof moving through the region continues to produce areas of showers with some embedded lightning. We remain under Q-vector convergence aloft but as the trof tracks east we will transition to descent from west to east from roughly 10-16z. In the wake of the trof, we will shift quickly to clearing skies and breezy west winds. perhaps a bit warmer in our east. Next deep low over southwest Canada will push toward the northern Rockies and a cold front should reach our NW cwa by around 00z. With mixed winds and RHs in the mid-upper teens (and a cold frontal passage in the evening), Monday is a day to watch with regard to fire weather.
Last evening's upper air analysis and this morning's water vapor satellite imagery show the subtropical ridge over Texas. There is good model agreement for the subtropical ridge remaining in place through the short term period. Models are also in good agreement in the lower levels with southerly to southerly flow continuing. The upper ridge will suppress convection for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be about the same as the last couple of days, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
As for today though, our pattern finally shifting as an upper ridge builds in and that pesky SFC boundary shifts south. And this upper ridge will really be the driving force well into mid- week, as after today, we will see little to any pcpn through Wed night. We will also see a lot of area return to the lower/mid 90s for highs. On Thu we are looking at a Bermuda high and a weakening upper ridge.
With an upper level ridge now over the area, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The upper level ridge will dominate the regions weather for much of the coming week with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across the region each day.
The Tulsa metro was upgraded to a warning mainly due to a combination of the urban heat island effect co-located with some of the highest forecast dewpoints in the region, likely aided by last night's rains. Data continues to indicate some potential for afternoon convection, mainly over the terrain areas of western AR on the eastern periphery of the building ridge aloft and near the tail end of the retreating effective surface boundary. Mid level ridging nearly overhead this upcoming week will bring a stretch of hot and dry weather to the region.
Mid level high pressure ridge, centered over northeast Texas, will build south into the region through the period.
Other than FG/BR VIS issues tonight, VFR CIGS will prevail throughout the period with a strong upper ridge in place tomorrow. No major changes were made to the forecast this evening as high pressure overhead will keep the quiet, repetitive, and dry forecast ongoing through the next couple of days. /issued 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021/ VFR conditions continue this evening into tonight as high pressure remains overhead. Another hot and dry day today thanks to the upper level ridge that is situated over the region. We can expect conditions similar to yesterday to persist today and tomorrow before the ridge relocates itself northwest of the CWA.
Winds should increase overnight as downward omega strengthens & 700-800 mb flow increases with the passage of the trough axis. A generally warm & dry forecast period expected as ridging remains in control aloft for much of the central and eastern US. A change toward considerably warmer & drier conditions will likely yield critical fire weather conditions for areas along and east of I-25 on Sunday.
This will keep our winds relatively light and variable through much of the day until later this afternoon when south winds should prevail as a result of the high moving east of the area. For the start of the work week, an upper ridge will strengthen over the middle of the country.
During the daytime, advancement of ridging and continued high pressure to the north will keep the region in a generally northerly flow pattern.
410 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Narrow ridge axis aloft bisecting the peninsula this morning between W Atlantic and S/Central CONUS ridging, south of troughing extending down through the Mid-Atlantic along with Henri approaching New England. E CONUS troughing gradually fills and lifts out by mid week as ridging builds to our north over the Central/Eastern CONUS and deeper E'ly flow returns along with a W'ward moving U/L low that gradually crosses the state mid to late week. with temps running in the low/mid 90s and heat indices topping 100 each afternoon. High pressure remains over the Gulf waters into mid week with mostly tranquil conditions. An area of upper low pressure expected to move into the region by mid week.
215 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A slow-moving, cut off upper low will be located over PA and the Virginias through this weekend. The upper low will capture more significant moisture on the western side of Hurricane Henri through Sunday, bringing mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the eastern sections of the Commonwealth.
1151 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A slow-moving, cut off upper low will be located over PA and the Virginias through this weekend. The upper low will capture more significant moisture on the western side of Hurricane Henri through Sunday, bringing mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the eastern sections of the Commonwealth.
324 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Upper low brings a few mountain showers and storms each afternoon through Monday. Upper low continues to rotate over the area today, with diurnal showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and east. Upper low will shift east a bit later today and tonight, with upper heights building across the area from the west. There, a ripple crossing in the mid/upper level northwest flow prior to the ridge building in may allow elevated heat source convection in the humid, modestly unstable air.
334 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Upper-level ridging is currently present over the Middle Mississippi Valley with an area of high pressure settling in over the Upper Midwest at the surface.