Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
943 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY.
947 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE LOWER CLOUD DECK NUDGING SOUTHWARD. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE AWAY FROM THE MIDWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
Currently in between a strong amplitude upper level ridge centered over the central and southern Rockies, and a strong area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes, within strong north-northwest flow. We remain under control of high pressure in the lower levels which is keeping a cooler and drier air mass over the region. Looks very similar today as we had yesterday, with upper level northwest flow remaining in place and low level high pressure. This will keep the cooler and drier air mass in place over the region through the short term.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
1034 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW. 4 WITH VALUES MOST PROLIFIC ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO THE LOW. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW TODAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE LOW WILL TEND TO FOCUS PRECIP AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND WILL LIKELY SEE A NET DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DOMINATE IN WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE.
345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 OVER THE PAST DAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A TOUCH EAST WITH NORTHERN AMPLIFICATION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 60 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 55 83 58 / 0 0 10 0.
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES GRADUALLY MOVES EWD. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY XPCTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS UNDER PREDOM SUNNY SKIES. 77 /ISSUED 155 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW EXTENDED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. AS HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS, A TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
945 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN.
FEWER CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.
WE REMAIN UNDER NNWLY FLOW ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN U. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE ERN U. TROF AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS PROBABLY ONE TO TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WILL BE THE CASE TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
636 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
421 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SEEMS OVERDONE AND FORECAST WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO/NM AND NEXT UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 700MB LOW IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EFFECT OF THE COOLER AIR DURING PEAK HEATING TIME.
936 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
1004 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
626 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
451 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARMER AND DRY THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST. AND THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF I95 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS SOME LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WORK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETROGRESS. AND IT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESENT A SURFACE PATTERN WITH AN APPEARANCE MUCH LIKE A DAMMING SCENARIO SANS COOLER AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
702 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR US WHICH WILL IMPACT THE HIGH TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS WEST OF MADISON HITTING THE LOWER 70S. HIGH THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN.
SFC NE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT MAINLY SUPPORT AROUND MID/UPPER 80S. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS PROBABLY ONE TO TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WILL BE THE CASE TODAY.
COLD FRONT AND COOLING STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROUGH COMES INLAND.
621 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 155 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW EXTENDED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. AS HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS, A TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
626 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE AWAY FROM THE MIDWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
TODAY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S MOST OTHER AREAS. OUR FRIENDLY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SOME NICE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, WITH LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN MOST AREAS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND DAMPENS OUT, AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
High pressure will remain across the area through Thursday night.
440 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. AND ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS. DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY.
746 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AVIATION ONE MORE COOL AND OVERCAST DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A LARGE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL FINALLY DEPART TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING AS FINAL VORTICTY MAXIMA DROP THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE MAY OFFSET THIS SO WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
949 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD AROUND AND INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHED FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT KTYR/KGGG/KLFK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING BUT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KELD/KMLU SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER BY 05/18Z.
PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THE CLEARING SKY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED THE ENTIRE PENINSULA TODAY, SPAWNED BY THE DEEP MID/UPPER LOW, WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDING ITS BASE, JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST, THEN MOVING EAST AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern side of the cloud shield. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops tonight. Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the week.
AMPLE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS REMAINING ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST. BUT BELIEVE MIXING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 20-30KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL KEEP IFR CIGS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDY.
840 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MID EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW AROUND WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FL. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
958 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMAL COOL SPOTS. WARMER WHERE THE CLOUDS AND/OR BREEZE ARE MORE PREVALENT. WEAK UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FAST THROUGH EARLY PART OF WORK WEEK.
743 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. WEAK UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FAST THROUGH EARLY PART OF WORK WEEK.
MUCH OF THE HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS REMNANTS FROM EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE MARTY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME- CONNECTING A HEALTHY WAVE OVER JAMES BAY TO THE CLOSED LOW RAVAGING THE CAROLINAS- IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION TODAY.
835 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IR LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW AROUND WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FL. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
EXPECT SOME RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH WEAKER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND NOT AS WRAPPED UP CYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND BETTER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MONDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH SOME MOVEMENT OUT OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
930 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THAT APPEAR TO BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER. IN THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WELL INLAND.
MONDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS (MOSTLY MORNING) FOR FAR NE ND INTO FAR NW MN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND FAR NRN FCST AREA. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS TURN WEST AND SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO DVL BASIN IN THE AFTN AND OVERSPREAD ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. COOLER MON NIGHT IN CLEARING AREAS WITH SOME PATCHY FROST PSBL.
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT KTYR/KGGG/KLFK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING BUT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KELD/KMLU SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER BY 05/18Z. WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SE INTO SRN CA. THIS LOW HAS ALREADY SHIFTED THE SUBTROPICAL JET E ACROSS MX INTO ERN NM/MUCH OF W TX. WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN FLA SHIFTING E INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AND UPPER RIDGING OVER TX AMPLIFYING N INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DID TONE DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT MONDAY /FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST/ AS THE LOW AND ELEVATED CLOUD COVER MAY HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DRY SLOT CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS COMBINED WITH BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING TO ALLOW FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE OVER THE REGION SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PAST SEVERAL. SO WITH UPPER LOW STILL LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST. UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM OUR FCST AREA.
GUSTY WINDS WERE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY SO LESS WIND EXPECTED MONDAY.
1102 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
This regime will place the Ohio Valley within ridging aloft between the upper lows through the period which will help keep sunshine and warmer temperatures in the forecast. Winds will stay up just enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling, thus lows in the low to mid 50s seem reasonable. Low-level thicknesses look similar to today, but a day of drying soils and full sunshine should help temperatures to warm a few degrees warmer than today which puts highs in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s.
810 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
DESPITE THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING GETTING UNDERWAY TOMORROW.
LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO WITH RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS SHOWN OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH SSI LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH RAIN AREA ROTATING TO THE SOUTH ON BACK SIDE OF LOW.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. /ISSUED / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY DUE TO A DIMINISHING THERMAL TROUGH.
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND FOR THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 81 58 80 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 81 57 78 / 10 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 82 56 78 / 10 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 50 76 / 20 10 10 0.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THIS CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER 60S OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ONCE THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF INTO NODAK AND MINNESOTA. AND KEEP THEM FROM FALLING MUCH PAST THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER MONDAY THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS KEPT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN IS FINALLY WANING WITH DIURNAL MIXING HELPING TO BASICALLY ERADICATE THE CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. EVEN HERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE ERODES EAST OF THE RIDGES AS FLOW THERE BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. FRIES DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 70S FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND WEST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SHUNT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMOVE ANY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. /ISSUED 159 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME OUR EVENTUAL WEATHER-MAKER LATER THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THE LOW SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AT TIMES AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
858 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SOME OF OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
707 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. WEAK UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FAST THROUGH EARLY PART OF WORK WEEK.
Relative humidity time heights indicate much of this low level moisture will linger over the next few days across the PAH forecast area. Models show weak upper level ridging over our region into mid week, which will keep us dry with a warming trend, with temperatures already above normal by Monday.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA.
1037 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
/ISSUED / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WAS PRODUCING A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER ALABAMA. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF ALABAMA BY SUNRISE MONDAY TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY MONDAY AND KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA.
Went just a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday. By Monday night, a mid-level ridge will be stretched across the Central and Southern Plains with a closed mid-level low spinning over the southwestern U. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the Great Lakes region southwestward into the central U.
SURFACE WEATHER MAP THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND A FEW LOWER 50S.
/ISSUED 159 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME OUR EVENTUAL WEATHER-MAKER LATER THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THE LOW SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AT TIMES AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NORTHERN BRANCH OF A AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT.
839 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW HELPED TO PRODUCED A GOOD DEAL OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT TO SEE LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE (POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT) LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.