Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1119 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 The main forecast challenge over the short term is temperature as an upper ridge breaks down and a surface cold front comes through. Perhaps the bigger factor on lows will be the 10C+ thermal ridge exiting the area and strong 40kt southwesterly flow at H85. Kept the Platte River Valley cooler as there will be less mixing and more of a drainage effect. The cold front clears the forecast area by 12z, so CAA takes over throughout the day. Kept highs on the cooler end of guidance, especially with the snow pack, resulting in upper 30s panhandle and lower 40s elsewhere. Did introduce schc -SN along the Pine Ridge during the morning for terrain enhanced lift and remnant surface moisture.
329 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Today and Tonight: Today should be a few degrees warmer with humidity levels noticeably higher thanks to continued southeast winds across the region.
Nam shows a 500 mb ridge on both the west coast and east coast with a broad trough in between the two ridges 12z Sat. The trough moves slowly to the east and southeast and the ridge in the western U. amplifies this period while the trough amplifies as well Sun night. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough with colder air over the ern half of the U. This trough heads east on Tue with modification of the cold air beginning then. KIWD: Low clouds will steadily slide through the TAF site through much of tonight as a warm front slowly lift northward toward the U. Improving conditions can be expected Friday as the warm front lifts north of the area.
340 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 This forecast period will features two cycles of: warm weather, followed by a mostly dry cold frontal passage, then cold weather. Strong WAA will continue today ahead of a cold front and will account for mostly cloudy skies and very windy conditions with sustained winds in the the 20-30 mph range with gusts to around 40 mph. This evening the cold front will begin to push into northwestern Missouri and progress southeastward through the CWA tonight.
Used a blend of model guidance highs today, generally from the upper 50s under abundant cloud cover near Durant and Ada to the lower 70s in far northwestern Oklahoma where sunny skies west of a surface dryline can be expected. Tonight, a weak cold front will move southward, and some showers, mainly in the form of a narrow line, should form on the cold front after 8 pm, anywhere southeast of a Ponca City to Lawton to Seymour, Texas line. Cooler and drier will quickly move in behind the front.
Cool overnight temperatures expected the next two nights with overnight lows near freezing in coldest valleys. Lack of cloud cover combined with the cold airmass over our area will allow overnight lows to drop to near freezing in the coldest inland valleys late tonight. The models agree that an upper level ridge will gradually build over California through the weekend.
High pressure from the surface to the midlevels centered over the NC/SC coastal region will provide benign weather across the Southeast today, with a light SW flow supplying weak warm advection.
227 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Another mild and breezy day is on tap with the area between high and low pressure to our east and west, allowing for continued southerly flow. A cold front will push toward the area tonight, with increasing moisture ahead of it.
The breezy south winds have really kicked in this evening in the enhanced pressure gradient ahead of tomorrow's approaching (fairly weak) cold front, and temps have been very slow to fall as a result. In fact, much of the southeast half of the coverage area (CWA) is now expected to hold above-freezing overnight (mainly 33-40 degrees), with roughly the northwest half mainly upper 20s-low 30s, with any mid- 20s largely confined to our typical colder spots such as around Ord and western Dawson County. Looking ahead, temperatures will cool on Friday behind a cold front, but it will still be mild for January with highs in the 40s and 50s.
255 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Today-Sun Night: A de-amplifying upper level trough will progress east of the Rockies into the Central Plains today/tonight. In the wake of the trough, NW flow aloft will prevail through the weekend. Expect dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures Fri-Sat and near normal temperatures on Sun, when a weak/dry cold front is expected to progress southward through the Tri-State region. Wind/Today: Pressure rises on the order of 6 mb/3-hr are expected in the wake of a weak/dry cold frontal passage between roughly 15-18Z, when winds will shift solidly to the NW and rapidly increase to 25-30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph.
350 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Latest surface analysis showed a 1038mb high over along the Eastern Seaboard with the ridge axis southwest along the east coast to Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoint readings were from the lower 30s across southern Mississippi to the mid 40s along southeast Louisiana coast. Upper air analysis showed a short wave from western Missouri to Arklatex region and stronger trough axis from western Montana to Utah. Short wave from western Missouri to Arklatex is expected to track to the Great Lakes today and leave deep moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley, especially along the coast.
1226 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening before going clear overnight as high pressure crests over the North Country. As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. Ridge axis will drift slowly ewd overnight. Still some NW winds 5-10kts at BTV/MPV, but overall trend will be toward light and variable conditions after midnight with ridge axis bisecting our forecast area by 12z Friday. On Friday the high drifts off to the easy and we start our return to warmer weather. Southwesterly flow builds in leading to temps warming in to the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
As the pressure gradient tightens between a high anchored along the East Coast and a cold front tracking through the Plains, southerly winds will increase to 15-25mph. Given these upstream trends and agreement among the high-res model guidance, have decided to add scattered sprinkles to the forecast from late morning into the afternoon.
357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Main concern will be p-type (potentially freezing drizzle) with any light precipitation that occurs this afternoon/evening. Guidance does not indicate precipitation this morning (forcing is very weak), but as winds become light fog (maybe freezing fog?) could be an impact through the morning hours. Forecast soundings show the potential for freezing drizzle (no ice crystals in cloud) initially, transitioning to snow. With that said, potential for freezing drizzle/snow enough to message.
1223 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will be in control. Late in the period, moisture will start to spread into CHA from the south, brining broken cigs at the low VFR end, potentially lowering to MVFR after 06Z.
103 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Friday.
241 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Cold front that brought mixed precip to parts of Northeast Montana overnight will move to the east early this morning. Upper trough will move through the area this morning.
Ceilings should remain VFR with the onset of the lower cloud cover and through much of the day with ceilings likely becoming MVFR just beyond this 24hr TAF cycle.
Pacific air continues to lift into the region ahead of cold front developing over the Dakotas. Southerly winds will eventually shift more westerly as the initial cold front sweeps into the are this afternoon. We should see a fair amount of high clouds across most of the area today with more lower clouds developing in the wake of the cold front late afternoon and evening west. The period will commence with the second of three cold fronts passing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley region.
1206 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tomorrow.
314 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure is currently centered across the Middle Atlantic, with a wedge in place across much of the CWFA.
Otherwise, mild and windy conditions expected today ahead of upper trough moving into the central Rockies. As upper trough swings into the Central Plains tonight, areas of light rain/drizzle will be possible across northeast Oklahoma ahead of approaching front with precipitation coverage increasing as boundary moves into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight.
Cooler today as a cool front pushes across the area.
307 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 A generally milder day is in store as a surface/upper level trough slides across the region.
The pcpn was in response to a low pressure system moving into the pacnw and will continue to spread showers across the region overnight that includes portions of the basin and little change was done to wx/pops. Otherwise low temps will remain in the 30s except in the 20s across the higher elevations and locations in the cascades/blues and wallowa mountains could experience an inch or two of snow accumulation.
223 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening before going clear overnight as high pressure crests over the North Country. As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. Ridge axis will drift slowly ewd overnight. Still some NW winds 5-10kts at BTV/MPV, but overall trend will be toward light and variable conditions after midnight with ridge axis bisecting our forecast area by 12z Friday. On Friday the high drifts off to the easy and we start our return to warmer weather. Southwesterly flow builds in leading to temps warming in to the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
1135 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Pressure gradients associated with low pressure moving into the northern Plains will be responsible for a steady south wind around 10 mph overnight, then a substantial increase Friday morning as the trailing cold front draws nearer. High pressure ridge has slipped off to the east and south/southwesterly flow at the surface continued the warm air advection into the region. Temperatures climbing into the 50s ahead of a warm front to the southwest with plenty of sunshine across Illinois today. Tonight, the southerly flow continues and temperatures will remain above freezing overnight, even though the skies will be mostly clear. Concern for the conditions to the southwest today, with highs reaching into the lower 60s, as dwpts fell into the 20s.
450 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 A broad and expansive high pressure cell is centered over the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds north of the island chain have struggled to reach 20 knots, revealing the decoupling effect of the cooler shelf waters Gulf and Bayside. Temperatures range from 66 to 71 degrees along the island chain, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
As a cold front nears, winds will decrease and veer slightly. Current thinking is that the lower stratus should stay south of PNC. Winds will remain a bit elevated overnight as a more significant mid to upper trough enters the Rockies through the early morning hours.
320 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure across the western third of the CONUS. Ridging was noted downstream and extended from the Ozarks north into southern Canada. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure was noted from the canadian maritimes south to New England. At the surface: Low pressure was located over swrn North Dakota with a cold front extending to the south southwest into eastern Wyoming. A cold front will track through western and north central Nebraska this morning. Even with H85 temps around zero C this afternoon, good mixing will facilitate highs in the lower 40s.
231 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Southeast winds to prevail across the region as high pressure shifts east today. Rain to spread east across the entire ArkLaTex and increase in coverage this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With increased clouds and moisture across the region, overnight low temperatures to be much warmer than previous nights, averaging in the low to mid 50s.
This is out in front of the main trough and cold front that will come through tonight. This first trough looks like it will have a narrow band of sufficient deep saturation to bring a 1 to 2 hour period of a small chance for showers. The east may end up being warmer than the western areas due to the longer period of sunshine expected there. The cold front comes through tonight and it also has a narrow band of sufficient saturation to support a chance of showers as well.
This may keep afternoon high temperatures a few degrees cooler than previously expected. High pressure ridge aloft will shift across Colorado today and then into central plains tonight. Lower elevations will see temperatures climb well into the 70s with the warm advection and building high pressure. Gusty winds will likely continue into mid morning over the high terrain according to spatial cross-sections. Enough instability will allow for the slight chance of afternoon thunder over the high terrain before the showers spread over the plains that evening. Snow levels are expected to drop to around 7500 feet that night, with the higher mountains seeing 2 to 6 inches possible overnight. A cold front will push south across the plains after midnight to increase the chance of showers south.
851 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A large upper low is moving slowly eastward across the Florida Peninsula and the Keys area this morning. Keeping the chance of showers in due to several lingering vorticity lobes that will pivot around the upper low this morning and early this afternoon. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday with a slight surge in winds.
845 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Latest satellite imagery showed the midlevel closed low moving over the region with wrap around clouds. Elsewhere across the region, cold air aloft in proximity to the low will result in widespread cloud cover and cool temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft will help cloud cover dissipate from the west after sunset.
1245 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The ridge of high pressure will settle south of the area into this evening, allowing for light west flow around its northern periphery. A backdoor cold front will sweep into area this evening (MBS) and overnight (I-94), bringing veering winds to the northeast. This system has effectively laid out a zonal cold frontal boundary across the northern shore of Lake Superior. This front will be the feature of interest today as it backdoors down the long axis lakes of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron with quiet surface ridging preceding its arrival over southeastern Michigan. The coldest of the marine air is forecasted to surge into the Port Huron area where it is certainly possible that temperatures could drop at least 20 degrees in a couple of hours, down into the lower 40s before 00Z.
1003 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move up the east coast early in the week.
Following several reports of freezing rain accumulating on windshields and surfaces this morning, the decision was made to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the northeast zones through tonight. Maliawco A cold front has moved to the south and west of the forecast area this morning. The frontal boundary will be quasi-stationary over Central Montana today with a low pressure system over Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over Manitoba will allow for gusty east winds over parts of Northeast Montana today. This trough and move across Eastern Montana this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be below freezing late tonight in some areas along and north of the Missouri River which will allow rain to change to snow. Will maintain a chance of light rain or snow in areas where temperatures will be near freezing.
The upper level low responsible for the cool wet start to the weekend was positioned near northwest Tennessee early this morning. This low is forecast to continue on a very gradual southeastward track into the Tennessee Valley and southeastern U. As it does, a general trend towards decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures should progress northwest to southeast across the forecast area. However, clouds and the potential for scattered showers will likely persist over southeastern portions of the area today with wrap-around moisture and lift in the deformation zone north of the low. After a small chance of lingering showers in far southeastern portions of the area this evening, dry weather is expected through the remainder of the short term as a ridge of high pressure passes through.
The cloud cover should continue to push ewd with the low, leaving behind VFR conditions by mid-morning at KLCH/KAEX and noontime KLFT/KARA. Other story today looks to be the elevated nrly winds as CAA continues in wake of the cold front. High pressure is centered over the Texas Panhandle this morning. The ridge will build east through today and become centered over our area by Monday Morning. By Monday Afternoon the ridge axis will shift east of the area allowing the return flow to begin.
With an upper level trof developing over the region, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move through the region today.
1112 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A large area of a light to moderate, steady rain continue to over spread the region ahead of an approaching upper-level low pressure system. Latest model progs, including the HRRR, RAP, and NAM show this precipitation regenerating again this after as upper-level lift increases and the true cold front pushes in. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 53 72 55 / 90 70 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 52 69 54 / 100 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 52 70 54 / 100 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 49 67 51 / 100 90 50 30 NC.
A cold front will push towards southeast Georgia late in the afternoon to the early evening, leading to numerous showers and isolated storms. This convection is forecast to weaken as the cold front moves across the region overnight.
Ongoing chances for showers look to continue today as the upper low spins overhead. Models have the upper low closing off and slowly spinning to the SSE during the day today and even into the early morning Monday. However, with the upper low spinning overhead, thunder may be possible especially on the Plateau.
The low levels are expected to remain dry so left showers out for now for the central valleys but will revisit in afternoon package to see if the Sevier and Sanpete Valleys need a mention.
VFR conditions will prevail today through tonight as a 500mb ridge across the central United States provides subsidence across the area. This will continue this morning before drier air aloft moves into the CWA this afternoon as subsidence increases with northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge builds across the south-central United Stated today. Below normal temperatures will prevail across the area today through tonight as drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area this afternoon.
Otherwise skies will be mostly sunny and max temps will be a couple of degrees above normal but quite a few degrees cooler than it was yesterday.
Models are not in good agreement regarding pcpn this afternoon but showers will stay in the forecast as weak upper trough comes in from Oregon. A weak cold front is moving across southwest Idaho this morning (around 3 AM MDT) with showers generally located out ahead of it.
1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Cloudy skies and much cooler conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley late this Sunday morning. However its upper reflection was moving to the south, SE of the Missouri Bootheel, with 1000/500 thickness values nearing 550 decameters, indicative of much cooler air aloft. As such, steep mid level lapse rates were moving southward with this upper low across the western TN/KY border. 34um or Channel 10) indicated some of the lower clouds from the western Ohio Valley and south of the Mid South. Fog may develop again on Monday night with the cloud cover clearing almost completely while temperatures drop into the low 50s.
630 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Ridge axis extending across north central Kansas into central Iowa will drift southeast into the area today. North-northeast flow will prevail ahead of the ridge continuing to provide weak cold advection. full sunshine and and strong late April insolation will warm our early morning lows from the low to mid 40s up into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. The ridge will continue drifting east tonight. It does look like lows will be a bit warmer on Monday morning across the area due to the warmer start to the evening. Carney Closed upper low that will be over the southeast CONUS early on Monday morning will move offshore and up the East Coast by midweek.
1028 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Cold core upper low steepening lapse rates a bit this morning and that is creating just enough elevated instability for a few lightning strikes to occur. Off and on showers/drizzle will affect all airports today with predominate MVFR/IFR cigs/vis as upper low shifts across the area.
702 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move up the east coast early in the week.
/issued 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/ An upper level low pressure system will move slowly southeast across the Mid South today. Slightly warmer highs in the middle 60s can be expected west of the river where skies should gradually clear this afternoon. The upper low will move east by Monday as high pressure builds in with a return to dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. This should allow temperatures to rebound back to seasonable averages in the lower to middle 70s by Monday afternoon.
The cold front extends to the county lines of Beadle and Spink, extending northeast and northwest from there. As this low moves east during the day, we develop a stronger push of colder air southwards on the west side of the low.
1047 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The morning visible satellite imagery depicts an extensive stratocu field that continues to linger across much of Deep E TX, N LA, and Scntrl AR, with additional cu cigs developing farther N across SW AR and portions of E TX as they sink S in wake of the nearly stacked low pressure system over Middle TN. 15Z temps were also running 1-2 degrees warmer than anticipated over much of the area, and given this, have bumped up max temps slightly to compensate as the cold advection has ended.
Deep trough moving onto the Pacific northwest coast this morning. Will keep the higher chance of showers over western and northwest zones. Highs will be warmer today, but may be tempered by increasing cloud cover. The GFS was very robust with QPF amounts over the west, mainly along the foothills, with over an inche of QPF Monday trough Monday night.
An upper level trough over the mid-mississippi valley will move into the Tennessee Valley Today and Tonight. A series of jet streaks moving around the trough will enhance strong divergence aloft over the southern Appalachians. An inverted trough will also develop across the area today due the jet dynamics producing low level forcing as well with isentropic lift developing.
1055 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure settling into the region and sunny skies dominate Central Illinois this morning. Very little going on in the short term, as the forecast area is influenced by a southwest-northeast high pressure axis. The upper low currently over the southeast tip of Missouri will settle into northern Alabama by late afternoon, keeping the northeast flow across our area.
1032 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An area of upper level low pressure will move slowly eastward across the southeastern states on Sunday. Dry high pressure will remain in place across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.