Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall the low to mid level moisture are a bit disjointed and the upper level forcing is not exactly in the area with the better saturation potential so that is the reason for the small chance.
lows near the freezing mark, cloudy conditions, and WSW winds around 10 mph overnight look good. After a brief bout of sunshine earlier this morning, clouds moved in as moisture wrapped around the large low pressure system to the north/northwest. Although the temperatures are cooler, they are relatively close to the climatological normal. The low clouds and low level moisture may result in some flurries/sprinkles, mainly north of a line from Peoria to Bloomington, before midnight. For tomorrow, westerly winds will continue, with clouds remaining in place as the temperatures climb only to the low 40s.
857 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 A deep mid-latitude cyclone is moving very slowly to the east across the upper Midwest, with a strong jet extending from the Mid-South, northeast into the Great Lakes. Winds will become light overnight, which should promote fair radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures falling into the low/mid 30s by sunrise.
1049 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the area this evening. Near record high temperatures today will lower to near normal for Thursday behind the cold front.
The other area of concern is the chance for freezing fog tonight with areas of clear skies. Templer Previous Discussion - As a vertically stacked low pressure system continues to push over the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region, periods of light snow continue to sneak into far eastern Montana.
520 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Latest water vapor loop is showing the weak upper level trof continuing to push southeast from the northwest.
This overrunning pattern will continue into Thursday Night with moisture advection strengthening as trough begins to develop out across the desert SW.
324 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Dry and cool air are in place over the state this afternoon with weak upper level ridging also in place. Temperatures will be similar to the highs we saw today.
With the light winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to drop to or below freezing across the majority of the area tonight.
/issued 217 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ An upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends southward into Texas while another upper trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures today are expected to be mostly in the 50s across the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through last night. The upper trough centered over the Midwest moves just to the north of the Great Lakes area while the trough over the Pacific Northwest moves southeastward on Thursday.
911 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track into eastern Canada tonight. An associated cold front will push through the Mid Atlantic late tonight.
The high surf advisory has been allowed to expire at 6 pm. In the wake of the front, a cooler airmass is filtering in across the central Gulf coast with rain chances ending. Upper level ridging then begins to build over the area Thursday in response to the upper low swinging east off the north Atlantic coast and another trough digging into the intermountain west.
520 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A crossing cold front will bring another round of rain showers tonight and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Showers continue east of Pittsburgh as warmer moist air ascends ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
431 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Upper low is over MN/WI, gradually shifting eastward. Next upper trough will approach the region Thursday.
809 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A crossing cold front will bring another round of rain showers tonight and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
The upper low currently over MN/IA should move further east tonight. There has not been a lot of reports of drizzle or fog upstream where the upper layers have already dried out, but model soundings for tonight continue to show a classic freezing drizzle signature. With the low layers remaining fairly saturated for much of the night, cannot rule out some drizzle. Some lingering freezing drizzle is possible mainly in the morning, but the lower layers should start drying out and the best lift will be well to our northeast. Temps should be a bit cooler than today, down into the upper 20s/low 30s although the true arctic air will hold off a bit longer.
723 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front will move east of the area this evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 56 34 58 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 53 33 53 / 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 41 53 33 54 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 50 30 49 / 30 10 10 10.
In the wake of the front, a cooler airmass is filtering in across the central Gulf coast with rain chances ending. Upper level ridging then begins to build over the area Thursday in response to the upper low swinging east off the north Atlantic coast and another trough digging into the intermountain west.
953 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front exits late this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
901 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front will approach from the west tonight then cross the area early Thursday.
the current forecast models showing the low finally lowly pulling off to the northeast into Ontario by morning. Another shot of cold air advection will come on Thursday afternoon and therefore, along with the the s/wv moving through the upper low, have put in small chances of precipitation types. Late this afternoon most areas in Minnesota were reporting snow, however, a band of warmer mid level temperatures kept northshore and the Twin Ports area through Hinckley in light rain and drizzle. There could be some periods of freezing drizzle very late tonight and tomorrow morning when some mid level drying occurs and the clouds lose their ice crystals. The precipitation will be patchy and very light, and will be dependent on how long the surface temperatures remain below freezing.
On Thursday, the rain will become focused around the higher terrain, changing to snow Thursday night.
933 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front has moved eastward through the area and colder air is filtering in in its wake. The parent low pressure across the Upper Great Lakes will continue to slowly shift east.
542 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 After a brief bout of sunshine earlier this morning, clouds moved in as moisture wrapped around the large low pressure system to the north/northwest. Although the temperatures are cooler, they are relatively close to the climatological normal. The low clouds and low level moisture may result in some flurries/sprinkles, mainly north of a line from Peoria to Bloomington, before midnight. For tomorrow, westerly winds will continue, with clouds remaining in place as the temperatures climb only to the low 40s.
A fairly potent trough was moving into the western United States, with 12 hour height falls of up to 170 meters at 500 mb this morning along the WA coasts. Surface pressure gradient will be decreasing tonight and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the area.
640 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A strong low pressure system over Wisconsin will move slowly northeast over the next couple of days causing mostly cloudy and colder conditions in our area with scattered rain and snow showers over southern Michigan and far northern Indiana.
704 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Aviation An upper level trough of low pressure will bring cool and unsettled weather tonight through late this week with extensive cloud cover and intermittent rain showers.
However, moist airmass out ahead of the cold front should still support patchy fog overnight into early morning Thursday. Southerly winds up to 15-20 knots offshore will become south to southwest overnight as cold front continues to near central Florida.
Upper level ridging then begins to build over the area Thursday in response to the upper low swinging east off the north Atlantic coast and another trough digging into the intermountain west.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a weak Pacific cold front is pushing slowly southeastward across northwest Kansas. These storms will be initiating along the weak cold front/surface convergence zone. The aforementioned cold front will move into the area tonight, probably reaching the southeast 1/3 or so of the DDC forecast area by midday Friday. Southerly winds 10 to 25kt will persist across central and much of southwest Kansas overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.
most concentrated ovr NRN/WRN AR where sfc dewpoints were in the lower and mid 70s. with an elongated upr trof extending fm the SWRN states into the upr midwest.
Upper level high pressure ridge remains over the west coast and will dominate the weather pattern over the next several days.
253 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70 and winds will become light. High pressure will ridge southward and into the area through Saturday.
The high pressure ridge will slowly erode through the day today with some slow height falls expected across eastern Kentucky by this afternoon. However, the low level jet over the region, could spark a shower/storm or two late tonight, mainly across northern or northeast Kentucky. Forcing remains weak or non- existent through the day, so shower/storm coverage may be more isolated, but the better rain chances will increase back to the northwest closer to the mid level trough. Jackson is a borderline situation, but opted to leave fog out as it may not quite make it up to the ridge top.
The high pressure ridge will slowly erode through the day today with some slow height falls expected across eastern Kentucky by this afternoon. However, the low level jet over the region, could spark a shower/storm or two late tonight, mainly across northern or northeast Kentucky. Forcing remains weak or non- existent through the day, so shower/storm coverage may be more isolated, but the better rain chances will increase back to the northwest closer to the mid level trough.
SE Michigan settles within the associated deepening mid level southwest flow immediately downstream today, as the upper ridge axis currently anchored overhead drifts east. Main theta-e plume pulls to the east with the exit of the attendant warm front by mid-late morning Saturday, with the trailing cold front then arriving during the afternoon. Background wind field carrying upwards of 35 knots of shear within the lowest 6 km would allow for greater convective organization should the environment prove sufficient in generating deeper convective updrafts.
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure overhead this morning will shift offshore this afternoon making for a sunny day. Fair weather continues tonight as the high remains nearby. A cold front approaches late Saturday but it should remain dry during the day.
A lull in activity is expected in the wake of this activity, but another round of thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon along the cold front that will slowly push south through the forecast area Friday evening into Saturday morning. Difficult to gauge what will occur during the afternoon hours as the cold front will not arrive until after this forecast period.
320 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Hit-or-miss clusters of showers/thunderstorms will affect the forecast area today, as a cold front approaches from the north and subtle upper waves approach from the west/southwest. Furthermore, weak isentropic ascent ahead of upper energy approaching from the west should allow for at least widely scattered showers/storms to eventually develop this morning over south-central and southeast KS ahead of the cold front. Thinking the convectively-reinforced cold front will tend to race southeast today faster than what NAM/GFS depict, limiting afternoon/evening thunderstorm redevelopment across the forecast area. This scenario is supported by the RAP and HRRR, and makes sense given current southward speed of outflow/cold front. Five-star weather expected across much of the area Saturday, as high pressure settles south in wake of the cold front.
/Issued 348 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016/ Pattern remains dominated by persistent TS Julia to the east and WSWly flow ahead of slow moving upper trough over the Western CONUS.
This flow will also bring warmer and a bit more humid air as well. A slow moving upper trough will plague the region through much of the weekend, as it nudges a weak surface boundary through.
556 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will hold through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
658 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
High pressure will bring one more day of clear skies and mild temperatures.
Weak troughiness over the region will continue our dry westerly to southwesterly flow through Saturday. A weak impulse currently near central California carving down the back side of the large scale mean trough position will probably lose higher latitude support and get pinched into a cutoff low as the jet retreats northward (in between a strong ridge off the California coast and another over northern Mexico).
Satellite imagery shows a weak mid level low/trough axis over the northwest Gulf of Mexico east of the coastal waters with scattered convection early this morning. The mid level trough axis is expected to remain over the northwest Gulf and drift to the southeast slightly on Saturday. Moisture is expected to increase over the coastal plains later today as the low pressure area moves inland with PWAT values increasing to 2 inches along the coast. But convection will develop again over the coastal waters later tonight and move inland on Saturday with the better chances rain over the Mid Coast region while drier air and building mid level ridge limits rain chances for the Coastal Bend and Brush Country.
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will hold through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
334 AM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Current water vapor imagery loop showed the upper low/trough moving across the north/central Great Plains, with active convection firing along a surface cold front from the Upper Midwest to the Lower Missouri valley. There is good agreement with the short range model guidance, with eastward progression of the upper trough toward the Upper Midwest today. Upper ridge will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern Great Plains during the next 24 to 36 hours.
A warming trend will begin Friday and extend through the weekend as high pressure builds into California and weak offshore flow develops.
242 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Weak high pressure aloft across S TX extending east northeast across the Northern Gulf Coast still firmly in control of our weather pattern. Broad upper trough across the Central/Northern Plains is resulting in southwesterly flow aloft across our portion of the country attm. There is a weak inverted trough that shows up best in the elevated thetae analysis that should move northward from the SC LA Gulf Coast today which should result in enhanced diurnal tstm coverage across our eastern zones compared to our western zones where more ridging will keep pops delegated to isolated variety. Upper level ridge to our south gets pressed slightly further south on Sat allowing for a little more influence from the southwesterly flow aloft.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will move over the area today with warm and dry conditions for the day. The ridge shifts east quickly Saturday, as a jet stream develops into the area.
A ridge of high pressure will continue over the region through Friday.
An upper disturbance spinning eastward across Wyoming into Nebraska will send a cold front south through the eastern plains this evening. As the front continues south from the immediate Pikes Peak region, it will gradually lose its punch and mainly become a northerly wind shift ushering in cooler air.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Surface and upper level low situated over central ND early this morning with widespread light rain showers from Bowbells and Mohall southwest through Minot, Beulah and Dickinson, to near Bowman and Hettinger.
Deep layer ridging will prevail locally today, resulting in temperatures a couple degrees above seasonable values.
A strong U/L ridge will persist over the Florida peninsula through the weekend which will continue to produce temperatures a few degrees above climatic normals.
Saturday will be a few degrees warmer with upper level ridging holding in place ahead of a cold front.
422 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Today through Saturday night, After several days of hot and dry weather in the ArkLaMiss, we will begin to see a change in the weather pattern as the persistent southeast CONUS ridge loses some strength while energetic westerlies shift southward toward the Lower MS Valley region. Temperatures could be significantly "cooler" Saturday due to more widespread cloud cover and earlier shower/thunderstorm development that may keep some locations from reaching 90 F for the first time this month.
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast today. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will move across the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Saturday.
514 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will slide southeast of the region through Saturday.
A broad 500 hPa trough is at the present time over the Northern and Central Plains with a closed low over ND early this morning. The upper level trough will weaken in amplitude, with the low weakening into an open wave, as the trough moves into the MN Arrowhead region and far Upper Great Lakes in the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, a surface cold front extends from a low near the Red River Valley that currently stretches south through the SD-MN border to Eastern NE to western KS. Cooler and drier aloft will be in place over western and north central NE today as the front advances east with 850 hPa temperatures ranging around 14-18 C. Thereafter a transitory ridge shifts east across the plains as a trough digs into the Pac NW.
More seasonal temperatures are likely today as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas behind the advancing cold front. Even with the help of decreasing cloud cover by this afternoon, look for highs only up into the mid to upper 70s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas ahead of the frontal boundary. Southerly winds 10 to 25kt will persist across central and much of southwest Kansas overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.
1108 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 Remnant upper low moving into sern Wyoming while the main low has now formed around the ND/SD/MT triple point. Showers/storms will continue into the evening before gradually retreating to the higher peaks or ending all together. Another frontal surge drops down tonight as our upper low pulls away with moistening in the boundary layer across Central Wyoming.
602 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will slide southeast of the region through Saturday.
With dew points starting to rise, expect overnight lows to also climb back above climatology ranging from the lower 60's in SW VA to near 70 in SE TN.
An upper low pressure system was moving east of the Rockies, lifting toward the Dakotas with a lead wave moving out of Wyoming into Nebraska. Looking for storm initiation to occur in western Kansas heading late this afternoon with the storms tracking northeast into our western counties this evening, with convection becoming more widespread heading into tonight across our cwa in increasing dynamics as the upper system moves into the Dakotas and the associated cold frontal boundary advances across the Central Plains. The weekend period is shaping up to be nice weatherwise in fairly zonal but progressive flow behind the departing upper trough. A southern plains upper ridge axis expands north early next bringing a warming trend in temps, then flow transitions southwest around the middle of the week as a couple of Pacific troughs move onshore bringing intermittent chances for storms.
Expect a gradual shift of the highest PoPs to the southeast through the night. More unsure of coverage of showers and storms along actual synoptic cold front which is expected to be entering the CWA very late Friday night and early Saturday morning. With better forcing for large-scale ascent to the south and weak convergence along the cold front. Cold front will continue to move southeastward through the day on Saturday. but there is still a chance of showers/storms along the synoptic cold front. Just have schc-chc PoPs across the southeastern 1/3 of the CWA early on Saturday evening along/ahead of the cold front.
429 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Precip coverage has been gradually increasing offshore in association with a surface trof situated off the Tx coast. Majority of rain/storms should taper off by early evening w/ the loss of heating - though there could be a couple lingering cells around for the start of some of the high school football games. Coastal trof should wash out on Saturday.
239 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Mid state remaining quiet so far tonight, however short term models indicate some showers may develop in the northwest this morning ahead of the main trough over the Great Plains.
402 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure in the vicinity will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures into Saturday morning.
333 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
Should be a nice day in the west with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 70s. Showers linger through the morning along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, and over eastern portions of central ND through much of the day. Cooler here as well with highs in the low to mid 60s and possibly some upper 50s around the Turtle Mountains. Will not mention it at this time but will pass along to the day shift the possibility of fog along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
/issued 210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from the Gulf to the Great Lakes. The trough will tear in two with a portion of it digging back to the SW and forming a cut off low by Saturday. High pops Friday and Friday night north as models develop good qpf along an E- W trough/boundary.
239 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 West to southwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as upper level troughing remains across much of the northern and western half of the nation. In addition convective chances will be enhanced later today and tonight by a southward moving cold front that is forecast to move south and west from the Panhandles and stretch from the central Permian Basin to western New Mexico later tonight.
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure departing the region will keep conditions dry through Friday morning. An approaching cold front will bring increased chances for precipitation late Friday afternoon through Saturday.
654 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will bring an increase in humidity today, then a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance east up the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be warmer that yesterday, ranging from the lower 80s in the north to the upper 80s across nrn KY. As the s/w works e tonight, it breaks down the upper ridge over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with the pcpn and cloud cover.