Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE THAT A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON MONDAY. WHICH SHOULD STUNT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT PRECIP FROM SPREADING TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS.
325 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASED WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. 25 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE KING RANGE OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY THU SWITCHING BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW /SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA INTO UTAH TONIGHT BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
A secondary and stronger low pressure system will move in Monday afternoon. The most precipitation will be along the Clearwater Mountains, Southern Bitterroot Mountains and the higher terrain of southwest Montana.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
TO THE DISTANT WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THIS TIME.
1224 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING A MILD AND DRY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY.
The low pressure system along the Gulf Coast will lift northeast over the next couple days which will spread moisture back west into the area.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL TAKE EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS EWRD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A CUT OFF LOW. THE GRADIENT OF POPS FOR TODAY IS GREATEST FROM WEST TO EAST AS NW AL IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH. WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN THESE AREAS WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY DUE TO SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS JUST STARTING TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. FLAT UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MAIN ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES LIFT NORTH AS UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
Look for a beautiful fall day today with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. AND THE ADJACENT NEBRASKAN PINE RIDGE. WITH PROJECTED HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS/NW MO WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT AS WE GET SOME MORE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS MON ALSO SIMILAR. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL STAY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS TROUGH.
649 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MID WEEK. THIN CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF GULF COAST LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRUSH AREAS FROM PIT S. DIGGING OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPEED UP THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE/PRECIP PUSH.
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 DRY AND CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE UVM AND WORK WITH H3 JET STREAK INDUCED LIFT.
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES DROP OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
138 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXITING SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.
251 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF KY. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PULLED BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. WHILE TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
310 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS FAIR WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
248 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FROM NORTH CAROLINA.
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SETS UP NORTH OF IOWA. WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING GETTING LOWS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN LOWER AREAS. WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 60S.
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXITING SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE TX/LA COAST WITH A CDFNT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND THE STORM WARNING IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ENDED AROUND 10 PM WITH A GALE WARNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AFTER 09Z, AS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND REACHES SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY 18Z/26.
153 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 DRY AND CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
328 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 High pressure over the upper Midwest is pushing down dry low level air into the area while a storm along the western Gulf coast is pushing high clouds northward into much of southern Missouri.
High clouds streaming north/northeastward ahead of the TX upper trof/low and remnant Patricia upper circulation will primarily influence the southeast half of the CWA.
THE COOL AND MOIST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE COOLER. IF YOU WANT WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TODAY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF TONIGHT.
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA STATE LINE TO THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 60S. LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING QPF/STORMS EAST OF A WAURIKA TO STILLWATER LINE AHEAD OF A NEARBY MID/UPPER TROUGH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPS RISING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
337 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
The heaviest amounts will be in the higher terrain along the Montana/Idaho border. The path of the low indicates that Northwest Montana should have the heaviest amounts in valley locations.
A much stronger, wetter and warmer system will move over NorCal today as a strong upper jet and TPW plume will plows into the region.
A BIT DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER.
IN ADDITION, THIS TYPE OF SET UP WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY, COASTAL RANGES AND EVEN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EAST BAY HILLS. MODELS BRING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE NORTH BAY STARTING AROUND NOON, AROUND SF BAY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (LIKELY CAUSING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ISSUES), AND TO MONTEREY BAY BY THE EVENING.
A weak cold front will continue to push across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. A weak cold front was positioned across Southeast Oklahoma into the far Northeast corner of Oklahoma this morning. the cold front will continue to shift east southeast through the CWA. Behind the cold front. west to northwesterly winds and cooler temps are expected. Morning update will be to account for latest trends for hourly temps/sky/dewpoints as the cold front pushes through.
1113 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. A TRANSITION TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LOWER MEASURABLE SHOWER CHANCES THEN THIS AFTN/EVE AS MOISTURE/SUPPORT SCOURS ALOFT AND A TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH EDGES INTO A MOIST NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RACE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL BE IN A POSITION TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT THOSE TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE INCREASED WIND WILL HELP MIX THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
334 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WHEREVER TEMPS DIP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING. TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT A SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72 AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS AROUND HALF AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL DEEPEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND RAISE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWARD. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY IMPACTING ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BLUFF TOP AND RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES MAINLY CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER THE SEPARATION APPEARS A LITTLE TO GREAT BETWEEN THESE TWO CLOUD LAYERS FOR A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS SO HAVE KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.
This was occurring in response to a weak cold front moving across Missouri as an upper level short wave moved through the pattern. The southerly winds over the past 24 hours had helped to bring a fairly moist airmass into the Ozarks but despite the weak cold front moving through the region, winds will become light from the west with temperatures and Td's dropping into the 30s tonight.
1147 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN PANHANDLE AND WRN OKLAHOMA TWD KCDS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE HIGHER WIND PUNCH. PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT NARROW WINDOW OF 15-25 MPH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AS ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING ENSUES IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THIS SWATH OF WINDS ALOFT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-WAVE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST MO. THE STRONG COLD FRONT PRODUCED A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WAS STILL IN THE MID 50S AIDED BY SOUTHERLY 15-25 MPH WINDS. THE STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD TUE NIGHT. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT GETS PUSHED E TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THU & THU NIGHT. UPPER WAVE SHOULD DECELERATE & STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE IT IS PROGGED EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF MID TO UPPER LOW FRI NIGHT & SAT.
KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARENT TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AND BRING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 00 GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BRING DANGEROUSLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ARKANSAS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO NEAR ROCKSPRINGS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOW A LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE WESTERN US TROUGH AND/OR CUT OFF LOW. MODELS TRACK UPPER TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST SYSTEM.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD LINE HAS RECENTLY CLEARED HETTINGER AND MAY REACH THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 0Z. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT MILD AIR AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM MOBRIDGE TO GRAND FORKS LATE TUESDAY.
/issued 414 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015/ The high wind warning has expired in the GDP Mtns. Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof in wrn NM and consensus of model data is that shrtwv trof will pass to the north of CWFA today. This will result in cooler 85h temps, but still warm enuf for above normal temps and with 85h winds of 15-25kts it will briefly be breezy after 18Z. Still warm on Thur with backdoor front lurking to the ne and could result in cooler temps there Thur. Still looks to be an unseasonably warm Christmas as surface pressure falls occur ahead of an upper low moving into the desert SW.
TEMPERATURE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. THE MAJOR WEATHER DECISION POINTS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE EFFECTS FROM THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXTENSION ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY THANKS TO BEING ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND A SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT. MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO THE DRIER MID LEVELS. AN EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
211 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015 A broad, low amplitude upper trough will encompass much of the ConUS through the coming week.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM DES MOINES IOWA.
THE MODELS ARE QUICKER TO PUSH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS AND OUT OF THE SNAKE PLAIN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY SETUP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SITS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS RAPIDLY INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS REGION.
150 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. 850 MB FLOW OF 55 KTS OR SO WILL MATCH UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY. EVEN WARMER AFTER THAT WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH OF 74 ON WED AT BNA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MS/TN VLYS TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN THE FROM SOUTH AND EAST AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST INTENSIFIES. BREEZY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROLONG THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC BEACHES.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT MILD AIR AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM MOBRIDGE TO GRAND FORKS LATE TUESDAY.
1203 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015 /18Z TAFS/ With the low clouds and fog having dissipated, VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals through the period. Skies will become mostly sunny as low clouds push east with the low level moisture. High clouds will also push east by late morning as an upper trough over Oklahoma moves east. Lows in the mid 30s are expected in the low lying areas, particularly south of I-20, where the pressure gradient/winds will be weakest/lightest.
A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL PULL TO THE NORTHEAST. PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TN VALLEY.
PCPN TYPE IS A PROBLEM AS TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO SATURATION THRU THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT GLAZING ON AREA ROADS (MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES). LATEST THINKING WUOLD BE TO HEDGE TOWARD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING (MAINLY AFTER 9 PM). MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVRNGT AND THEN END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that this trough will move quickly off to the east this morning which will cause a cold front currently extending from Iowa through far northwest Missouri into Kansas to sweep through the area this afternoon.
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 53 66 58 / 70 100 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 52 64 55 / 50 100 60 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 52 64 55 / 50 100 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 49 61 53 / 30 100 60 80.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING AND THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. BY LATER TONIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE LOWS BY DAY BREAK TODAY.
ISSUED AT 334 PMCST MON DEC 21 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A MEAN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AMERICA. WITH THE WEST COAST COOLER THAN NORMAL.
IT IS WARM OUT THERE AS WE APPROACH THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER (TOMORROW) WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AREAWIDE. ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH DURING THE AFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DE-STABILIZE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK SURFACE TROF SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFT.
227 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015 WITH MODELS SHOWING A LARGE BROAD TROF MAINTAINING OVER THE CONUS. PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN EVENTUAL THRUST OF CAA INTO THE LOWER 48 BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARMER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS BREEZY WESTERLIES DRAW IN WARMER AIR BELOW A WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.
AS GULF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE S. WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HINTING AT A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE SW STATES POSSIBLY LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ALONG WITH MID AND HIGHER ALTITUDE MOISTURE AND A NEARING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS JUST STARTING TO DIG INTO OREGON AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TOMORROW. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL SHOULD TEND TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROF AXIS TRAVERSES THE REGION AND A WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AT THE VALLEY FLOORS AT MOST LOCATIONS AND RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET AS PRECIPITATION MIXES DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT. 700MB WINDS /AROUND 10000FT MSL/ REACH 60-75KT AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS /ESPECIALLY THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS/ AND IN THE WELL MIXED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE HEALTHY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER WEST FACING TERRAIN.
A weak cold front was positioned across Southeast Oklahoma into the far Northeast corner of Oklahoma this morning. the cold front will continue to shift east southeast through the CWA. Behind the cold front. west to northwesterly winds and cooler temps are expected. Morning update will be to account for latest trends for hourly temps/sky/dewpoints as the cold front pushes through.
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SO DECIDED TO USE THE NMM SURFACE VISIBILITY GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK AREAS ON ROAD AND WALKING SURFACES UNDER FREEZING TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA.
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US THIS PERIOD.
With a chance for inversions to develop will keep forecast overnight lows in the lower 30s. A cold front slides through the forecast area as the wave passes overhead.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT REACHES THE JKL FORECAST AREA.