Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
518 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2017 A cold front was crossing through the far southeast part of the forecast area early this Monday morning and pushing south and east. A bit cooler today, post frontal, and then comfortably cool tonight. Hot Tuesday, 90s, normal highs in the 70s for the second week of September, as a thermal ridge axis / 24 to 27 degrees C at H8/ pokes into the southwest. Ahead of a low pressure trough dew points increase enough, 60 Bismarck through Jamestown, that it might feel a bit on the sticky side.
/Issued 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ A rather tranquil weather pattern will exist across the southern high plains this week as an upper level ridge of high pressure dominates the region.
315 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2017 An upper high continues to dominate the region and will help keep Irma and its associated moisture well east of the FA.
/issued 342 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/ An upper level trough is located from the Midwest down into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. This trough is steering Hurricane Irma into the Southwest Florida coast. This will help bring back warmer temperatures and more humid conditions. Despite the increase in moisture, some upper level ridging should help keep in check any significant rain chances.
Upper level ridging over the Plains states will shift a bit westward as Irma moves into the Southeast early in the period.
249 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Low pressure off the Southern California Coast will continue a threat of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and high desert areas into Tuesday. The low moves north and inland for drying, strengthening onshore flow, and a deeper marine layer for the latter half of the week.
1042 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Warmer weather will return for Monday and Tuesday as a ridge builds over the Inland Northwest.
Across the plains, values are generally between 110 and 140 percent of average with the higher values closer to the mountains.
Highs will again reach right around normal in the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight again falling about 5 degrees below average.
An upper ridge will flatten some into Tuesday providing zonal flow aloft across the state of Montana. The remainder of the forecast area will see lows ranging in the 50s to even low 60s in a few of the warmer spots. Weather change expected past midweek to cooler and potentially wetter conditions with a strong upper low moving across the region. Upper trof begins digging south from BC into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night with upper flow turning southwest and lee trof beginning to form in central Montana. Low level winds turn briefly southeast across the plains but moisture feed appears to be limited due to blocking by the remnants of Irma over the mid- Mississippi valley. Cooler air continues to filter south as the trof digs into the northern Rockies.
High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions tonight and light winds. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 50s except into the 30s across the higher elevations. Warmer temperatures can be expected tomorrow as a warming trend is expected into Tuesday with highs climbing toward 90 degrees in the basin. However with the high pressure system along with light winds some smoke is expected to return that may lower vsby tomorrow afternoon after 18z and into tomorrow night.
336 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Area will remain dry and warm over the next several days as large ridge of high pressure over the western US pushes east through the week. This ridge will keep remnants of Irma to our east across the Ohio river valley while a deepening trough moves across the western US. The above mentioned upper ridge axis will shift east of the area late in the week allowing southwesterly mid-upper level flow to persist into the weekend.
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 A large area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will maintain control of our local weather into Tuesday. The more- shallow mixing height will keep temps cooler than 70F over the Laurels.
Winds will be lighter than last night especially near the axis of the trough. Monday night and Tuesday: Upper ridge will be centered over Colorado, situated between low pressure off the coast of southern California and the remnants of Irma to the southeast. Heights begin to diminish as the ridge will break down as we head through the day on Tuesday.
A flat ridge will be in control today and Tuesday. An upper trough moving into British Columbia will increase downslope flow on Tuesday and thus that is expected to be the warmest day. Record highs are in jeopardy Tuesday with maxes in the lower to mid 90s.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoons through the early part of the week, mainly along the higher terrain.
High pressure shall be in control early this week, allowing for temperatures into the mid to upper 80s and somewhat drier conditions. A change in the weather pattern will begin late Tuesday with the arrival of moisture from a cut-off low over California.
Diego CA 249 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Low pressure off the Southern California Coast will continue a threat of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and high desert areas into Tuesday. The low moves north and inland for drying, strengthening onshore flow, and a deeper marine layer for the latter half of the week.
Have had to adjust temperature grids slightly to slow rate of cooling as the high cloudiness is helping insulate those areas under it. This did result in an adjustment in the low temperature forecast to be slightly warmer in the western and central Panhandles, but all regions still are within Hard Freeze Warning criteria. /Issued 440 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ After a cool day where our highs struggled to reach 50 today, temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow, as the upper level trough shifts eastward.
Breezy nwly winds will continue overnight in the wake of a cold front. /issued 945 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Cold front advancing into the eastern Louisiana this evening. The cold front and associated band of strongest convection is currently passing the ARA terminal and should be east of the site by 00Z. A cold front continues to advance east across the forecast area this afternoon. Will hang onto showers in the forecast until mid-level trof advances through followed by sharply drier air.
This high will become dominant over the area overnight and Saturday, keeping conditions dry. Lows in those area between 5 and 15 degrees are expected, with the coldest temperatures likely to occur in the low lying areas of the James River Valley. Winds will remain light through the day Saturday, and under abundant sunshine, will see temperatures rebound to highs from the mid 40s east to the lower 50s west. An east Pacific ridge and mid to eastern conus trof will continue through most of the period.
Although the 00Z guidance is just coming in, the trends in temps, dewpoints, sky cover and wind all point to freezing temps for many areas including some counties not in the initial Freeze Warning. Would not be surprised to see a few spots on the outskirts of the Metroplex, such as Alliance Airport, to reach freezing. Although the lower levels are dry, some sprinkles and light sleet have been reaching the ground. Please note that some other normally colder spots outside of the Freeze Warning may briefing hit freezing.
/issued 1010 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Skies continue to clear across the northwest half of the region in the wake of today's cold front while the last of our lingering light rain showers continue to slowly exit the region late this evening.
/issued 906 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Several mesonet sites across mainly western Oklahoma are at or below freezing early this evening. Even with a gentle northwest wind, temperatures will fall well below freezing tonight with at least 10 more hours of no insolation. All locations are expected to fall below freezing by dawn.
As of 20Z the cold front has passed through CKV and will make it to BNA between 23Z and 00Z and most likely won/t make it to CSV until after 09Z. Have around freezing temperatures tomorrow morning.
945 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cold front advancing into the eastern Louisiana this evening. The cold front and associated band of strongest convection is currently passing the ARA terminal and should be east of the site by 00Z. A cold front continues to advance east across the forecast area this afternoon. Will hang onto showers in the forecast until mid-level trof advances through followed by sharply drier air.
Will be transitioning into a more active weather pattern tonight as a cold front approaches the Southern Appalachian Region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 56 37 51 / 100 90 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 55 36 46 / 90 100 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 54 36 46 / 90 100 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 57 35 44 / 40 90 80 20 TN.
An additional inch is possible with up to 2 more inches over the higher terrain of Lake and Cook counties. Elsewhere, tonight and Saturday, high pressure will begin to work its way across the area ending the light snow where it hasn't already stopped. This is due to the northerly flow over Lake Superior in concert with the depart area of low pressure.
/Issued 440 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ After a cool day where our highs struggled to reach 50 today, temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow, as the upper level trough shifts eastward.
Early-afternoon water vapor imagery depicted a mid to upper-level low over the upper Midwest with an associated trough stretching southwest into the southern High Plains. As such, we will maintain the freeze warning for central and southern portions of the area where lows are expected to dip into the lower to mid 20s.
Evening weather balloon from Boise still shows the presence of an inversion aloft, associated with the upper ridge along the Pac NW coast.
729 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
532 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Aviation Section Updated Clear skies and noticeably lighter winds dominate Central Montana into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the west.
The surface cyclone is now located over northern WI and a large amount of dry air, easily seen on satellite, is clearing out our snow potential and cloud cover for the short term. Tonight, the lower wind speeds coupled with mostly clear sky conditions should lead to the coldest night of our nascent cold season so far. The exception will be our counties in southwest Minnesota which will be a bit cooler since they ended up with just enough snow to reflect some of the insolation.
Mid and high level moisture continues streaming over the state from the north as the high amplitude western ridge/eastern trough flow pattern remains in place. The QPF fields show a tad of measurable precipitation in the high mountains north of I-70 later tonight into Saturday morning. Skies will clear Saturday night as an upper level ridge in the northwest flow aloft pass over the state.
Expect temperatures tonight to be a little warmer compared to last night, although it was still be pretty cold with lows between 15 to 25 degrees.
521 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof shifting into the Great Lakes area and ridge building across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across Wisconsin, with high pressure across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will remain across the western CONUS with the forecast area on the eastern edge.
1011 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will remain offshore and large scale troughing will be over the eastern U. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
A strong cold frontal passage earlier today has brought a significant change in air mass to central Indiana.
Breezy northwesterly winds are continuing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient has been slow to relax behind a departing area of low pressure now affecting the Great Lakes region. opted to hedge temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance.
Dry Canadian high pressure settling south across the region overnight will support widespread sub-freezing temperatures, ranging from upper teens across central KS to upper 20s to near 30 degrees far southeast KS.
1032 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast extending from northern Baja California to northern British Columbia will produce rather strong northerly flow aloft across the northern Rockies.
After 12z, the front should begin pushing well east of the area, and lingering low level cloudiness associated with a thermal trough will begin to break up. After 15z, the remaining terminals should see the low cloud deck running around 1000 feet begin to lift into MVFR and VFR range.
837 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Updated the forecast to decrease sky cover as high pressure has kept much of the cloudiness well to the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are continuing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient has been slow to relax behind a departing area of low pressure now affecting the Great Lakes region. opted to hedge temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance.
High pressure centered along the Pacific Coast will maintain a dry northerly flow across the Great Basin through the weekend.
720 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat to the NE away from central North Carolina.
653 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A strong cold front is now currently pushing east through the heart of the region with the boundary still on track to move through NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG sites later this evening. /BB/ Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand across the ArkLaMiss this afternoon as cold front progresses southeastward, with boundary currently stretching from just west of Vicksburg to near Winona.
Cloud cover will continue to slowly overspread the area this evening, as a cold front approaches from the west. A strong cold front was over central Kentucky at mid afternoon, moving southeast. Temperatures ahead of the front were mostly in the 70s in the JKL forecast area, but were only in the lower 40s over western Kentucky at the same time. The elevation factor becomes more important on Saturday night, as temperatures at higher elevations in the southeast part of the state fall below freezing. That being the case, the higher elevations may see not just snow, but also light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Although the lower levels are dry, some sprinkles and light sleet have been reaching the ground. Please note that some other normally colder spots outside of the Freeze Warning may briefing hit freezing.
KCSV will have southerly winds a bit longer this evening before the cold front arrives.
As this high drifts southeast by Saturday, winds will turn to the west and increase after sunrise. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid teens. Record low temperatures for North Platte and Imperial are in the lower single digits and the in the negative single digits for Valentine and Broken Bow. With more westerly winds on Saturday, high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 50s. Large scale pattern begins highly amplified early Saturday night with an upper-level trough across the central-eastern CONUS and an upper-level ridge over the West Coast.
1241 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region today. No significant changes were needed for todays forecast as rain will accompany a cold front across the region. The amplifying trough over the Central CONUS will shove that front over the Upper Ohio today, but the jet-energy digging the trough is projected to slow progress and result in a brief period of split upper flow.
Plentiful sunshine on Saturday will allow afternoon temperatures to climb back into the low 60s for most locations.
Mostly clear skies prevail across the CWA this evening along with unseasonably warm temperatures, except along the coast from around Cape Blanco south and the adjacent coastal waters, where marine stratus is keeping it cooler. This weather comes courtesy of a strong long wave ridge with an axis right along the west coast, which is part of a rather large but weak omega block.
/issued 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Large temperature gradient across the Midsouth this afternoon with most of the area now in the mid 40s behind the cold front, but northeast MS has reached the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Widespread showers are occurring behind the cold front as expected, but there has also been isolated convective activity along the leading edge of the rainfall due to enhanced convergence and marginal midlevel lapse rates. The cold front will be through the remainder of the area by 8 PM, with temperatures quickly falling into the 50s in northeast MS.
Sfc analysis shows low pressure over the U. This low will move east to Ontario by Saturday night and the upper low accompanying it will move over the Lower Peninsula.
Will be transitioning into a more active weather pattern through the next 24 hours as a cold front moves into the Southern Appalachian Region.
Model guidance has been suggesting single digit to around 0 dewpoints through much of the night combining with an area of high pressure moving through western Kansas which should keep the cold air in place, limit any cloud cover, and decrease the winds considerably. Saturday should bring slightly warmer temperatures as the longwave trough will move eastward into central Kansas. This will allow slightly warmer air to move in from Colorado and highs should near 60. As the area of high pressure moves into the Texas panhandle, we could have some mid to upper level clouds move back in to the region after the noon hour.
The mid level trough was slowly rotating through the area and clouds were slowly trying to erode as drier air filters in, however it is a struggle. Afternoon dewpoints were in the lower to middle 20s and with drier air attempting to move in, still thinking temps are on track to crash tonight, especially across areas that clear.
For now went with scattered wording in western areas this evening but may need to carry stronger wording in east as trof swings through. Also beefed up overnight wind speeds in tight pressure gradient and surge of cold air advection behind trof. Expect remaining VFR cigs over southeast WI to lower to MVFR overnight as low pressure trof passes through the area. Medium Primary upper low vicinity MI U. will lift northeast this period with trough axis hanging back into the area. Cloud cover persists into Saturday with the trough in place with more of a northwest wind. Expecting highs in the low/mid 40s.
1107 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Seeing some weak echoes across parts of the coastal waters as the base of the mid-level trough continues to dive towards the south. In wake of the cold front passage earlier today, gusty north winds and falling temperatures have developed. Tomorrow night will be just as chilly to a few degrees cooler.
955 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will crest over the area overnight then move east of the region on Saturday.
851 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Our chilly morning quickly turned around with most of us warming up into the low 80s. Late this afternoon, the area of low pressure was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 with the expectation it will form into a depression or tropical storm Philippe in the next 24 hours as it moves across Cuba and heads towards the Florida Straights.
Northwest flow continues aloft on the southwest side of the upper low over Wisconsin. Went ahead and expanded the Freeze Warning into Washington, Clay, and Dickinson counties where freezing temperatures this morning were not widespread.
1000 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 H100-H70 anticyclone centered off the Mid Atlc coast this evng with its trailing axis extending acrs the nrn FL peninsula and into the ern GOMex. Hi pres ridge centered off the Mid Atlc coast will drift NE overnight, generating a gentle to moderate SE breeze over the lcl Atlc.
With a strong upper high over the Pac-NW Coast and trough centered over the Great Lakes, flow aloft is almost from due north tonight. This is the same disturbance that will drop south into our region Saturday night as a cold front. The ridge in the west will begin to be felt in temperatures as heights increase tonight. Although many low temperatures will again fall below freezing, areas in the southwest should not. Lows tonight will be around 5-10F degrees warmer than last night. Templer Previous discussion - The highly amplified weather pattern across the entire CONUS continues with the trough and low center over the Great Lakes region and the ridge and high center over the west coast. The pattern will allow for dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures over the next day or so.
Will see an increase in mid/upper level clouds with the trough's passage and a wind shift to northwest but remaining light. Temperatures in the single digits and teens will be common under high pressure. Thankfully winds will be light so wind chills will only feel minimally cooler than the temperature. Tomorrow a trough will approach western North Dakota. This will allow warmer westerly winds to push into the area bringing temperatures up into the 50s across western North Dakota.
The most dominate feature for us is the ridge just off the coast of California. The combination of the ridge to the west and a deepening low over the great lakes has the CWA entrenched in strong northerly flow. Cold advection regime will continue as cooler and drier northerly flow behind yesterday's cold front increases. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler than the past few days, as colder air moves in. A quick warming trend is expected late in the weekend, as the ridge breaks down and flow becomes more westerly. Large scale US trough will amplify as a large deformation axis develops and spreads south over top of us.
1010 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Skies continue to clear across the northwest half of the region in the wake of today's cold front while the last of our lingering light rain showers continue to slowly exit the region late this evening. /issued 511 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Cold front has pushed well east of all our terminals late this afternoon with any remaining convection having moved east of our terminal sites with the cold front as well. Upper trough axis is still to our west and lift in association with this trough is significant enough that some showers are being squeezed from mid level moisture with the trough. Temperatures aloft have cooled significantly thus that some of the higher dbz echoes this evening could have embedded sleet pellets with it.
855 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Deep layer trough is located from wern Great Lakes to the lower MS valley with associated sfc cold front from TN southwest into srn LA and the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Low level moistening will slowly occur tonight on southeast to east flow and warmer overnight lows expected compared the last 2 nights. a few light showers expected late tonight in the warmer and more moist south to southeast flow near 10-15 mph. NHC started writing advisories on potential tropical cyclone eighteen at 5 pm.
The cold front and associated band of strongest convection is currently passing the ARA terminal and should be east of the site by 00Z. A cold front continues to advance east across the forecast area this afternoon. Will hang onto showers in the forecast until mid-level trof advances through followed by sharply drier air.
853 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
In wake of the cold front passage earlier today, gusty north winds and falling temperatures have developed. Tomorrow night will be just as chilly to a few degrees cooler.