Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 412 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Thunderstorm development expected to be enhanced today and tonight with the approach of a short wave trof and the arrival of its associated cold front. Cold front makes its way through most of the forecast area tonight, and then passes through the southeast Texas Panhandle Sunday morning.
Any convective potential will have to rely on diurnal heating with a weak lee trough present. or some orographic enhancement given a south component to the low level fetch. Sunday should be a slightly higher chance for storm development as the broad upper trough north of the region dampens more and allows a swath of more enhanced mid level moisture to advect across the TN valley and approach the northern tier of the CWA. overall pattern continues to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s.
An upr trof wl be exiting the state to the east early on Sun, with an upr ridge building then building ovr the area bringing drier air. High temps should also be a little warmer, and should be just a little below average. Showers/tstms should develop by late morning or early afternoon ovr the higher terrain, with some isold storms then spreading to the sern plains in the late afternoon and evening hours. Thu an upr trof wl be moving acrs the nrn Rockies with west to southwest flow aloft ovr the forecast area and hints of a monsoon- like plume of mstr streaming into CO. Fri and upr trof is forecast to move into the Great Basin in the GFS, while the ECMWF is a little slower with this feature.
At 15Z, temps have warmed up into the low/mid 80s already with a few mid-level clouds starting to pop up and upper-level clouds streaming in from the MCS over MO. The TN Valley will stay dry and have mostly sunny skies as the MCS rounds the upper-level ridge and stays to our north. Even though we are in the wake of the cold front that went though yesterday, which is now in central AL, we will not see a relief in temperatures. High temps will be slightly warmer than yesterday reaching the mid 90s by this afternoon. The heat index will reach the mid/upper 90s today, and will be the lowest values of the holiday weekend.
A well developed vertically stacked low pressure system is currently overhead, and continues to drive widespread precipitation and gusty northwest winds. Tuesday and Tuesday night cyclonic flow on the backside of the low now over southern Manitoba will keep a few showers going, mainly across far northeast Montana.
Afternoon temperatures over the lower deserts will remain near or a few degrees above normal.
222 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Water vapor shows upper low over far nern MT with dry sw flow aloft extending into the nrn plains. Pcpn in our nwrn zones will end by early this evening with high pressure building in overnight with rather cool lows expected. High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions.
Upper ridging will remain broadly draped over the region today with the center sitting over the Mexico/AZ border. Models show the center of the upper ridge shifting east slightly on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures in the 30-35 C holding strong the next several days.
348 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 The main weather feature will be an anomalously cold upper low that will track across northern North Dakota tonight and tuesday.
143 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak surface across the central Midlands will continue moving northward tonight and further northward into NC Tuesday, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north some into our region. The upper ridge will weaken some late this week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. The upper ridge will continue to build slightly over our region, while the surface boundary continues to shift slightly farther to the N and NE and set up mainly just to the N/NE of our FA Tuesday.
350 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Analysis this afternoon shows a rather vigorous trough along the U. /Canadian border near the Montana/ND border with downstream ridging over the Great Lakes. A broad but relatively flat ridge spanned much of the Southern CONUS, while a weak, closed upper low was present over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Potent upper low over northeast Montana this afternoon with strong gusty winds across the region but rainfall is on the wane across southern Montana and northern Wyoming. This low is moving northeastward and will be in southern Manitoba by Tuesday afternoon leaving below normal heights in its wake but overall trend is for a quieter weather pattern the next few days. It will be warmer with much more sunshine but temperatures will still be below normal by a few more degrees.
Thunderstorms, some severe, could develop during the afternoon in the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA as this cold front slows down. The high res guidance is pushing this activity further eastward with each iteration as we head through the day which points toward the possibility that the strongest activity could potentially form east of the CWA. Today's cold front will stall and fizzle out in central Kansas on Tuesday with easterly and eventually southeasterly flow returning to the area throughout the day. Active weather is anticipated at the end of the work week with west/northwest flow aloft, followed by heights rising during the weekend bringing drier and warmer conditions.
353 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will slowly move offshore through Tuesday. A diffuse warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
1220 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Current surface map places cold front from central South Dakota in the Nebraska panhandle. Water vapor imagery shows upper low over Montana. For today, upper low lifts into southern Saskatchewan.
Inland areas will see daytime temperatures above normal late in the week as high pressure strengthens over the region. A slight cooling trend is then forecast for the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough pushes inland over the Pacific Northwest. A gradual warming trend is forecast to being today and persist through late week as an upper level ridge builds across the region. The forecast models then drop another mid/upper level trough out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming weekend.
432 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region, will slide east and off the coast Tuesday morning.
/issued 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ A weak upper low remains over the area. in the low to middle 70s under partly cloudy skies. a weak ridge is in place across the Eastern half of the Nation. with a shallow trough over the Northern Rockies. Beneath the weak ridge over the East. High temperatures should be slightly warmer tomorrow as heights rise and we expect less cloud cover. Temperatures should be near normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to middle 70s.
By Tuesday night, there are some signals that the upper level ridge will break down sufficiently for an upper level disturbance to forcing a cluster of storms over the eastern Plains.
336 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas through the week as high pressure remains southeast over the Atlantic.
General pattern does not change much with weak upper trough sort of stuck in peripheral ridge flow that limits storm motions to crawl speeds and dictated by propagation along outflows, sea- and lake breeze boundaries for the next several days. steady state onshore flow around fringes of bermuda ridge pattern to maintain generally light southerly winds and low seas for the next 5 days.
328 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will build east and crest over the area tonight. The high will slide offshore on Tuesday, setting up a warm southwesterly wind over New England.
344 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Dry weather will continue tonight under departing high pressure.
246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 The 19Z sfc analysis shows the SD low centered from Faulk through Beadle to Hutchinson Counties, with a trough extending east near the Cheyenne River and Cherry Creek. Finally starting to get some better clearing across central SD this afternoon, which will result in better mixing and increasing westerly winds behind the cold front.
353 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 90s this afternoon across Southeast Texas under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday as the shear axis pushes farther east of the region, with high temperatures again rising into the low to mid 90s as skies become partly cloudy. Little change in the overall pattern is expected the next few days with the region situated in between two upper ridges, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s.
/issued 413 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016/ The latest surface analysis across the southeast states shows high pressure ridge axis suppressed well to the south over the Florida peninsula allowing a continued SW flow regime over the local area.
401 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 A cold front will continue to work its way south through the panhandles tonight. The cold front should knock off a few degrees off of the highs for Tuesday.
427 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Included central Laramie County into the High Wind Warning as winds ramped up quick at KCYS ASOS and peaked at 58 mph shortly after 4pm. Halleck Ridge. Dana Ridge WYDOT sites along I-80 have been reporting 52-53 MPH gusts. decided to keep the High Wind Warning going through 6PM. Warmer temperatures Tuesday as 700mb temperatures climb back to +14C during the afternoon.
A cold front was moving through central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, and this feature will begin to slow this evening as it approaches southeast Nebraska into central Iowa as the upper support lifts northward and the flow becomes parallel with the boundary.
315 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weakening front and area of low pressure across the region will bring a good chance of showers and storms over the next couple of days. A building ridge of high pressure will bring above normal temperatures and less coverage of storms mid week. More typical summer time weather can be expected into the weekend with scattered showers and storms each day as the Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominate the weather. A consensus of guidance continues to slowly lift the front back north for the remainder of this afternoon and overnight, with a warm and moist southerly flow continuing as high pressure builds back in from the south.
1212 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure beginning to build back into area from TX. /issued 534 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ A weak trough continues to be in place across the region. On Tuesday, it looks like the majority of the region should stay dry, as the upper trough begins to lift out.
419 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 This Afternoon-Tonight: Low level ridge has lifted a little further north today, allowing for flow to back a little more easterly than yesterday. Tuesday: Deep layer subtropical ridge will continue to be the main driver of the local weather into mid week. Coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday will be a toss up between the suppressive effects of the mid level ridge as it builds westwards across the peninsula and a little deeper moisture rotating around its base into South Florida. Light southerly flow will allow both the Gulf and east coast sea breezes to push inland, with the highest coverage of storms over the interior. Afternoon highs remain warm, but closer to normal in the low-mid 90s.
355 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Biggest problem for Tues is whether there will be any shra and, if so, how much of an area will they cover? Have decided to add about 10pct to the higher elevations. 590 dam upper-level ridge in place over the region Monday will gradually slide eastward through midweek, allowing moisture to slowly work in from the SW and making above normal temperatures feel more uncomfortable.
118 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 A low pressure trough will bring cooler weather and more extensive coastal clouds through Tuesday.
/issued 337 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will be centered over far West Texas, resulting in mainly hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Upper level ridge to remain in control, centered near El Paso and southern New Mexico.
Tonight THROUGH Tuesday A cold air mass over western Wyoming is expected to produce some freezing temperatures in Jackson Hole in Teton county and the upper Green River Basin in Sublette county where freeze warnings have been issued. /00Z ISSUANCE/ As the low pressure system over Montana moves to the east this afternoon and evening, MVFR conditions possible from NW WY through north central WY, especially over and near higher terrain. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots expected, and higher gusts over the higher terrain. The western valleys should see some freezing temperatures and areas of valley fog is expected.
Otherwise, expect another hot, humid, and hazy day with highs in the low to mid 90s today under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
655 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
(Issued 1036 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016) Water vapor imagery and H5 RAP analysis indicated a weak area of low pressure approaching the CWFA from the west, with lingering showers/storms situated along the associated front arcing northward into Central TN/KY.
Very flat ridging has developed over us between last weekend's low which is departing to the east and another low currently off the B. As a result, most of us are seeing sunny skies and warmer temperatures today than we've had in several days.
Strongest south winds expected across the eastern zones today, with substantially less winds across the NW 1/2 of the CWA, as cold frontal boundary sinks southward by evening.
A trough of low pressure aloft and an associated front will give a threat of showers to the coast tonight and to inland areas Tuesday.
An upper level low will continue to move into Central Canada this afternoon into tonight with its trough axis swinging through the northern Plains. This will help push a cold front farther south into Kansas this afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across northwest Kansas to mid 70s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are anticipated to range from the lower 90s across west central Kansas to upper 90s across south central Kansas.
Warm front, but more like a "humid" front, will lift northeastward overnight and bring in a more humid Gulf air mass. and given overall lower than average predictability of weaker features in this type of pattern forecast confidence is a bit on the lower side.
Thunderstorms, some severe, could develop during the afternoon in the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA as this cold front slows down. The high res guidance is pushing this activity further eastward with each iteration as we head through the day which points toward the possibility that the strongest activity could potentially form east of the CWA. Today's cold front will stall and fizzle out in central Kansas on Tuesday with easterly and eventually southeasterly flow returning to the area throughout the day.
The GFS and ECMWF show flat upper level ridging over most of the southern CONUS continuing through the end of this week, with the strongest presence over the southwestern states and Texas.
144 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the area will move slowly east through Tuesday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
Weak mid and upper trough insitu over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Mid and upper trough lifts northeastward tonight so will keep pops going with overnight lows down in the lower 70s with mid and upper 60s on the plateau.
A weak warm front was positioned just to our southwest in TN early this morning. The highest pop is on Tuesday, once the humid low level air mass is fully in place and the upper level system arrives. The upper ridge will move east by midweek with moisture/humidity returning for the rest of the week.
Update: Low pressure aloft is overhead and deepening, driving widespread precipitation across Phillips and Petroleum counties. In fact, locally heavy rainfall be possible as wrap around moisture pushes across the area tracking with the low pressure system.
100 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 Lighter winds will continue this evening as high pressure builds over northeast California and western Nevada. More typical afternoon and evening zephyr winds return Tuesday as weak low pressure moves by to the north.
Temperatures throughout the lower portion of the column will increase a couple more degrees, supporting a push to 90F for highs.
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Heat and humidity ahead of cold front moving into the area this afternoon, and potentially severe convection and heavy rain with the front this afternoon and evening, are the primary forecast concerns. Mid level ridging was evident on evening upper air charts extending from the Texas panhandle into the mid Missouri River Valley and into Minnesota. Upper low was moving across Idaho into Montana early this morning, as advertised by model output from the last several days.
146 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak mid and upper trough insitu over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Mid and upper trough lifts northeastward tonight so will keep pops going with overnight lows down in the lower 70s with mid and upper 60s on the plateau. Chance of convection will increase by this afternoon and evening as an upper low moves almost directly across the mid state and with plenty of moisture in place.
Medium Remnants of outflow boundary dividing up the CWA in a nw/se fashion with very war/humid/cu filled to a bit cooler/less cu and more of a lake influenced airmass. 500 millibar trough in the Dakotas is proggd to lift northeast and take on a negative tilt orientation as it pivots into MN, well northwest of here. Also upper divergence increases into western cwa in conjunction with jet core tied to trough. Overall a warm and muggy night shaping up with most lows expected to be in the 70s as the sustained 925 thermal ridge axis will be sustained with the favorable flow ahead of the approaching boundary.
Dry weather is expected tonight as a High pressure system departs the region.
Approaching upper level low is currently centered near the ND/SK/MT triple point. A low exists over SE SK and eastern SD with occluded frontal boundary extending N-S across central ND and warm front extending east of SD low into southern MN. Elevated warm air advection north of the warm front over central MN is a focus for thunderstorm activity currently.
Looking at Tuesday, low pressure will be moving east across southern Canada, with a tight pressure gradient across the Dakotas. The region then becomes situated between the exiting high and low pressure to the west.
139 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas by midweek and persist through the end of the work week. Mostly sunny and toasty today as the subtropical ridge holds strong. West to west-southwest flow below 500 mb per 12Z KCHS sounding is allowing surface dewpoints to mix down into the lower 70s. The only exception may be interior SC where either the sea breeze pops a few storms late today and/or activity in the SC Midlands associated with the lee trough shifts into our inland zones.
The ridge axis is centered in northern Mexico and extends into West Texas. There is a weak trough axis across East Texas but no rain is expected to be generated due to poor moisture values. For tomorrow, the ridge axis will begin to translate east with a 594dm contour centered near El Paso.
Overall decreasing trend seen on radar, but will see a rebound later due to slow moving short wave trof. On the synoptic scale the mature low over southern Manitoba Tuesday night will lift northeast towards Hudson Bay and weaken, partially due to a mid-level ridge over the lower Great Lakes into New England.
The incoming trough has produced 30m height falls at 500mb over the past few hours with steepening mid-level lapse rates. The 0-1 km shear isn't bad either with 15-30kts along the warm front from the Twin Cities to Redwood Falls and low LCLs. Therefore there is a tornado threat near the warm front in MN.
As the upper levels warm during the day today above the mid level moist layer, the mid level instability should begin to decrease and lead to the eventual demise of the high based showers and storms. the latest data suggests that this high based activity may develop over portions of NE OK on Tuesday morning. /Issued 407 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ An upper ridge will remain the dominant feature over our area for most of the forecast period.
Mid level jet at the base of a trough moving through the N Rockies will increased to 50+ Kts during the afternoon, which will lead to gusty winds later this afternoon as strong mixing transports some of this momentum to the surface. For the rest of today, RH below 15 percent and W winds gusting in the 30-40 mph range for the higher terrain will be the main concerns.
Sfc analysis shows the cold front has passed southward into Colorado with northwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts across the plains. Upper trough is progged to lift northeastward into Montana through the day.
/Issued 527 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature for this 7 day fcst period with above normal to well above normal temperatures expected.
Isolated to scattered convection over east central Wisconsin associated with an area of weak shear along and near the surface warm front stretching from just north of MKX to central Wisconsin to Northern minnesota. Large mcs moving over northern and central Minnesota bowing along this warm front and north of the mid level cap. This convection likely to focus downstream along the warm front and cap edge this morning, which is progged to lift north of the area this afternoon. A cold front approaching from the Northern Plains will approach the area this evening and slowly drop southeast overnight into tuesday. This unstable air mass will linger over the southeast half of the state as mid level westerly winds increase with the Northern Plains upper trough slowly drifts eastward.
Do have a small area of northeast Missouri in likely category as this will be the first place the storms move into, and will be closest to the best instability, shear, and the low level jet will be strongest up there. The synoptic cold front will be well to our north, but scattered storms should form on the old outflow boundary from the MCS.
Afternoon temperatures over the lower deserts will remain near or a few degrees above normal. These unusually strong winds have nixed some of the drier air aloft down to the sfc, pushing dewpoints down into the 30s and low 40s at many locations, with even some 20s across se CA and the lower Colorado River Valley.
Still prefer the HRRR, which indicates activity will be a bit slow to wane over central MN this morning just along and north of the warm front. Meanwhile, the atmospheric cap will build south of the warm front, with heat and humidity increasing over central and southern Minnesota. By late afternoon, expect convergence along the eastward-advancing cold front to spawn clusters and/or a line of thunderstorms across western Minnesota.
341 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas.
358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 This afternoon an upper level closed low was positioned near the Montana/North Dakota/Canada borders or fairly close to Williston North Dakota. Underneath high pressure.