Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low clouds and fog should dissipate by late this morning. An upper level ridge will move across the Panhandles today and it should keep our skies mostly sunny this afternoon. As the upper level ridge moves east of the Panhandles on Sunday, falling heights will be noted over the Rockies ahead of another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The falling heights will encourage the lee-side trough the strengthen more.
Swaths of warm advection clouds are passing across northeast WI, but the nearest precip is under the trough west of Duluth. Light shower chances with this trough along with temperatures are the focus of this forecast as warmer air pushes into the region. Highs will mainly range from the middle 50s near the lake to the lower 60s. Remained on the warmer side of guidance on Sunday with highs ranging from the low to mid 60s at most locations away from Lake Michigan.
This WAA will be a gradual process with 850mb temps only climbing a 2-3 degrees above freezing by this afternoon resulting in a marginally warmer day with highs in the low 50s. This ridge draws the warmer airmass over the southern Plains eastward into the Midwest.
Dry cold front analyzed from Chadron to Guernsey to Rawlins this afternoon. but with the tight gradient behind the cold front. Will wait another hour or so before cancelling the high wind warnings. So afternoon highs Saturday looking to be 4-6 degrees warmer over today. Looks breezy to windy Sunday as next cold front moves into western Wyoming. Ridge axis shifts east into Nebraska early Sunday morning with slowly cooling 700mb temperatures.
Highs will generally range from the mid 70s east to near 80 degrees west of the Pecos River where the presence of the low lvl thermal ridge is most pronounced. The upper lvl ridge axis will shift east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and southwesterly flow aloft will increase over West TX.
Concerns about LIFR freezing fog vsbys/ceilings CSV thru 06/14Z. Concerns about IFR vsbys with potential of some suspended freezing particles per BR forecast also MQY. Otherwise, ridging influences sfc/aloft should provide VFR/SKC conditions thru 07/06Z.
After which the 5H Cluster Analysis shows some strong ridging developing over the region for several days which will give Norcal some dry and seasonably mild wx which could also result in morning fog/stratus.
Concur with deterministic runs which maintain an upper level high pressure system and dry conditions over the region during the period.
Yesterday's south winds pumped much warmer air into the region, and that has continued overnight. Despite mostly clear skies, our western 1/2 of the area has held in the lower 40s through 2 AM, while the east is in the mid 30s. Sunshine and 60s are on tap for today, with winds in the 10 to 15 mph range, gusting to the lower 20s. 2) Strong cold front arrives later in the week.
A ridge aloft is currently dominating our weather with the axis now having moved to our east. With full sunshine and the ridge in control, another day with well above normal temperatures for this time of year is expected. Well above normal temperatures will continue on Sunday, though will drop a few degrees compared to today as the ridge continues to move east and heights get knocked down slightly with some cirroform clouds.
As it treks northeast, it will sweep a cold front across our area a cold front this morning. Meanwhile, winds are still southwest to west east of the Seven Mile Bridge and range from 10 to 20 knots. Thankfully a northwest wind will allow the air mass to moderate as it moves over the warm Gulf waters for at least the lower and middle Keys. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 60s for most locations, while holding near 70 degrees in the lower Keys.
Upper ridge axis is beginning to shift east of our area. Broad low amplitude ridging is currently spread out across the Northern High Plains with the axis located near the Montana/North Dakota border. The ridge axis will move quickly across the state early today, keeping us in near zonal to slightly southwest flow aloft. A weak surface front/trough will move across the state late this afternoon through tonight. Sunday will still be warmer than normal, but maybe not as quite as warm as Saturday given the passage of the weak frontal boundary.
619 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Upper level ridging will continue to build over the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley today bringing above normal temperatures to our region.
Winds become southerly today, bringing warmer air into the area. A cold front pushes through the area late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into the area heading into the evening. Weak ridging, along with southerly surface flow, will be responsible for well above average temperatures today and into Sunday. Today's temperatures will be dependent upon cloud cover associated with a weak surface boundary/warm front that pushes northeastward through the afternoon. Heading into Sunday, a weak cold front slowly works southeastward into the area, but will have little influence over our temperatures, as clouds will once more put an upper limit on afternoon highs, which should top out in the 50s once more for most areas.
626 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Winds become southerly today, bringing warmer air into the area. A cold front pushes through the area late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into the area heading into the evening. Weak ridging, along with southerly surface flow, will be responsible for well above average temperatures today and into Sunday. Today's temperatures will be dependent upon cloud cover associated with a weak surface boundary/warm front that pushes northeastward through the afternoon. Heading into Sunday, a weak cold front slowly works southeastward into the area, but will have little influence over our temperatures, as clouds will once more put an upper limit on afternoon highs, which should top out in the 50s once more for most areas.
Broad low amplitude ridging is currently spread out across the Northern High Plains with the axis located near the Montana/North Dakota border. The ridge axis will move quickly across the state early today, keeping us in near zonal to slightly southwest flow aloft. A weak surface front/trough will move across the state late this afternoon through tonight. Sunday will still be warmer than normal, but maybe not as quite as warm as Saturday given the passage of the weak frontal boundary.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday):500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas today through Sunday as the upper level ridge shifts eastward across northeast Mexico and east Texas tonight into Sunday. light northeast winds will prevail across deep south Texas today and veer to the east tonight but remain light tonight into Sunday as a weak onshore flow returns along the lower Texas coast. Not much in the way of tidal overflow along the lower Texas coast early this morning and with low tides at 10:07 this morning.
A cold front on its way through the state will bring valley rain and mountain snow showers this afternoon through tonight across northern Nevada.
517 AM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 The latest analysis has a flattened long-wave upper ridge across the central CONUS with an upper trough off the West Coast. In the low levels, a thermal ridge was over the CWA and will lead to highs today well above average. This will send a cold front south across the CWA.
Deepening low pressure offshore the northeast Florida coast early this morning will keep some unsettled weather over west central and southwest Florida the remainder of today. Cool air advection (noted on 12Z raob data) will keep temperatures below normal with highs only reaching into the mid and upper 50s across the Nature coast, lower to mid 60s central zones, and upper 60s to lower 70s across southwest Florida and along the coast, with a breezy northwest to northerly wind flow making it feel even cooler. Winds and sea should begin to diminish and subside on Sunday as the gradient slowly relaxes as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Snowfall up to 6 inches will be possible this afternoon and evening over the crest of the northern Sierra, and some travel impacts can be expected across the higher passes.
Sunday should be equally warm, but increasing cloud cover may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Active weather is still expected towards the end of the week, as a trough comes ashore the pacific coast early in the week and deepens over the central CONUS mid to late week.
1033 AM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 The cold front was likely just offshore the Upper Keys at the present time, and making eastward progress. The morning sounding clearing indicated the post-frontal cool advection process, with backing winds in the lower troposphere and deep drying bringing precipitable water down to near 1 inch. Today will likely feature a few more hours of truly "windy" conditions, especially along the Lower Keys, whereas upper Keys winds are most likely to lull a bit this afternoon.
934 AM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will dominate over the region for the duration of the weekend. Low pressure will strengthen off the Southeast coast passing east of the Outer Banks late in the weekend.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the short term period.
07Z water vapor imagery shows upper ridging over the southwestern CONUS with broad troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the forecast area remains within southwesterly flow between high pressure well to the east and very weak troughing on the lee of the Rockies. The pressure gradient over our area doesn't look quite as strong today as yesterday, but as the upper ridge builds in, we'll still see enough mixing with increasing WAA to see a notable bump in temperatures compared to yesterday. On Sunday the pressure gradient tightens further, which should continue to usher in warmer air and bump temperatures up a few more degrees to bring highs into the 70s across most of the area.
Today will be a different story with showers and cooler temperatures, as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler. A secondary push of cooler air aloft is expected to move through this evening allowing for snow levels to lower to 4500 feet. Light snow with minimal accumulations are possible in the higher terrain of southwest Montana, including Georgetown Lake. Anyone traveling overnight tonight should be aware that there could be a few slick spots in the higher terrain of the aforementioned areas. For the most part valleys will be mostly dry with continued cooler temperatures.
708 AM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 SE MI is in the pressure gradient between Atlantic coast high pressure and low pressure in central Canada today and tonight. This maintains a warmer SW surface wind with dry high pressure origin. This WAA will be a gradual process with 850mb temps only climbing a 2-3 degrees above freezing by this afternoon resulting in a marginally warmer day with highs in the low 50s. This ridge draws the warmer airmass over the southern Plains eastward into the Midwest.
Slight warm/moist advection will help hold tonight's lows a few degrees warmer across the board with most areas holding in the 40s. Otherwise, wind speeds will be a touch higher tomorrow as the ridge axis shifts eastward and the surface pressure gradient sharpens to our northwest.
/Issued 1047 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ A sunny and warmer day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
1127 AM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 The latest analysis has a flattened long-wave upper ridge across the central CONUS with an upper trough off the West Coast. In the low levels, a thermal ridge was over the CWA and will lead to highs today well above average. This will send a cold front south across the CWA.
500 MB low pressure over the coastal Southeast states will slowly move out to sea. High temps Sunday will be near normal as high pressure ridging at 500 MB begins to build in from the west behind the slowly departing coastal low. This ridge will give us a warm spell for much of the upcoming work week.
Echoes on radar were gradually becoming more shower-like and less like sprinkles, as the mid/upper trough axis remained to our west and moisture remained below a developing inversion above 850 mb. Northwest surface winds had lulled, however increasing cool advection (temperatures currently having slipped to the lower to mid 70s) will likely accelerate the northerly winds across the mid 70s Bay and Gulf waters overnight, while shadowing the Upper Keys from the more extensive low cloudiness and isolated showers. Strong low pressure east of Jacksonville this afternoon is expected to move slowly east-northeast offshore the southeast U.
Winds will become breezy this afternoon as a longwave trough moves inland, swinging a cold front across the region later this afternoon. Widespread precipitation through the region after 06/22Z, with heavier precipitation near the cold front passage.
With temperatures expected to be in the lower 30s across the entire CWA, frost is likely and have issued a frost advisory from 3am to 6am Sunday morning.
Do expect areas within the frost advisory to drop at or just below freezing, mainly sheltered valleys. GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 63 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 61 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 62 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 60 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
At 245 PM, upper level ridging was bringing beautiful weather to the region, with temperatures in the 60s and just a few wispy cirrus flying by. Today and Sunday: The axis of upper level ridging will shift gradually eastward over the next 24 hours, allowing a transition to more southwesterly follow aloft. At the surface, pressure gradients should increase in response to lee troughing and a cold front advancing through the Dakotas.
257 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 18Z data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley while weak low pressures are in the lee of the Rockies. Quiet and warmer than normal conditions will be seen as high pressure moves to the east coast.
(This afternoon through Sunday) An upper ridge will dominate Oklahoma's weather through the weekend.
As a result, some orographic showers are starting to appear over the higher terrain near Livingston and the Beartooths. A cold front will move through the area Sunday morning bringing a brief, slight chance of rain to the plains. The rest of Sunday remains cool and dry for most areas, with high temperatures running about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
251 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Cooler-than-average temperatures will continue to be the main story through tonight. On the backside of the upr trough/storm system, clearing skies and weakening winds will allow for good radiational cooling tonight.
A mid to upper level trough over the southeastern CONUS will move over the western Atlantic later tonight. The upper trough is then expected to linger along the eastern Seaboard through the remainder of the period as an upper ridge builds in behind it. Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower to mid 60s, before cooling into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight. Areas along the coast will be slightly warmer due to moderating affects of the Gulf waters, with lows dipping into the mid 40s.
At the upper levels, a nearly stacked low pressure system is off the SE coast. Thus, it will be cold again tonight but a tad "warmer" with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Some of the ridge tops may not fall below freezing tonight.
347 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Sunday night. A weak upper level trough will move off the Rockies and into the Dakotas on Sunday night. Will see some cooler overnight lows on Sunday night as the weak trough pushes into the region. Expect lows ranging from the low 30s in northwest Nebraska to the mid 30s in central Nebraska.
222 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 A passing upper level ridge axis this evening will be followed by a weak upper level impulse later tonight and Sunday. Temperatures tonight still appear milder with a warmer airmass and also those limited high clouds, another mark against widespread fog/stratus late tonight.
Winds are beginning to shift to be southerly as the pseudo-warm front pushes through with the clouds, but remaining light. Winds become southerly today, bringing warmer air into the area. A cold front pushes through the area late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into the area heading into the evening. Weak ridging, along with southerly surface flow, will be responsible for well above average temperatures today and into Sunday. Today's temperatures will be dependent upon cloud cover associated with a weak surface boundary/warm front that pushes northeastward through the afternoon. Heading into Sunday, a weak cold front slowly works southeastward into the area, but will have little influence over our temperatures, as clouds will once more put an upper limit on afternoon highs, which should top out in the 50s once more for most areas.
High pressure at the surface will continue to shift east through the forecast area through Sunday. As this happens, ridging aloft will steadily build east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This could again affect morning lows there, keeping them a couple of degrees warmer than what they could possible fall to in this airmass. Slightly warmer but pleasant conditions are again expected, as highs top out in the mid 60s to around 70.
With abundant sunshine and increasing warm air advection, temperatures have responded accordingly, reaching the low to mid 60s by 19z. A few sites across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota have even neared 70 already today in the vicinity of the ridge axis and topological enhancements. Similar conditions or a couple degrees warmer are in store for Sunday. As the ridge passes across the area the tightening pressure gradient across the area and some deeper mixing will allow south winds to gust 20-25 mph Sunday afternoon.
402 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will remain across the area through the weekend.
223 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Dry and mild weather is expected to persist today through sunday in response to the upper level ridge hanging tight over southeast Wyoming.
As the area of low pressure off the Florida Atlantic Coast continues to make its way northeastward, we'll continue to see cooler and drier air filtering into the region through tomorrow. Winds are expected to decrease by tomorrow afternoon as the low pressure gets further away and high pressure over the Central Plains begins to slide eastward over our region.
340 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 (Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Winds will be light tonight with high pressure and a surface inversion overhead. Highs on Sunday should be a little warmer than today, in the lower 60s, with a steady southwest breeze during the afternoon.
257 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Expansive surface ridging continues to stretch from the western Gulf of Mexico up toward New England. We'll remain under the influence of this feature and a building upper ridge axis through the short term, which will certainly keep us dry and also continue the steady warming trend.
By the middle of the week, broad high pressure will build over the desert southwest bringing drier conditions and warmer than normal temperatures to the area. A jet streak moving around the southern end a broad trough over the Pacific NW will enhance higher elevation winds this afternoon, and winds may gusts as high as 55mph along the Sierra crest this evening as this feature passes. Winds will decrease overnight, but breezy conditions will return Sunday afternoon, albeit to a lesser extent, as the trough over the Pac NW gradually moves east. Temps in the Owens Valley will return to near normal levels tomorrow while areas further east and south will be slightly cooler than today.
154 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Today, a building upper-ridge has been ushering in 90th percentile low-level (850mb) warm air advection according to NAEFS/ENS guidance.
850 mb temps warm a bit and MaxT values will also warm with temperatures warming into the lower and middle 70's. it'll be warmer Sunday night with weak onshore winds and also a bit more humid.
Somewhat flat upper ridge will persist over the region tonight and into Sunday. Sunday will bring a mix of clouds/sun, and there should be a slightly cooler airmass in place, so expect temperatures to be a bit cooler vs Saturday.
An upper level low will push east off the Florida coast.
Changes for the eve update included a downward bump in temperature given the low dewpoints, clear sky, and light wind. Morning reading won't likely be as cold as the past couple days given the overall warming of the atmospheric column with strengthening high pressure. High pressure will support conitinue dry weather and slowly moderating temperature with warm advection and insolation. Gradually warming and dry conditions will prevail through at least mid week with high pressure continuing to build on the van of a wrn CONUS trough. High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind through the TAF period.
257 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Return flow from a departed high pressure system now centered over southern New England has kick-started waa across Michigan, as noted in the DTX RAOB, where h850 temperatures have increased by +5C over a 24 hour period. Only a slight difference noted with surface temperatures at this time as temperatures highs hold right in the lower 50s for today.
Upper low to our southeast is keeping northerly flow aloft, and keeping temps cooler across the area. This will allow for near and just below freezing lows tonight. The upper low will slowly work its way east into the Atlantic, and upper ridging will move eastward in its place.
We'll transition to more southwesterly flow aloft as the main ridge axis sits to the east running from the Great Lakes through Texas.
228 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Conditions do not get much better than what we have over the Upper Midwest this weekend with high pressure over the Appalachians and deep ridging over the southwestern CONUS extending northeast. Highs will range through the 60s, from the lower 60s around the Brainerd Lakes region into western WI, to the upper 60s to near 70 in southwestern MN.
1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Upper level ridging will continue to build over the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley today bringing above normal temperatures to our region.
With a high of 80F this afternoon we've officially recorded the second warmest November day in Denver's history (only 81F on 11/27/2017 was warmer), and there's a good possibility tomorrow ends up in a similar spot. Gusty winds will be likely across the higher terrain, with quiet weather otherwise.
Winds will turn southerly this afternoon as a surface boundary makes its way through the CWA, advecting warmer air into the area. This is responsible for warmer temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Heading into Sunday morning, a weak cold front will push southeast through eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
248 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Early this afternoon a low amplitude upper ridge was located across the southern and central Plains. An amplified trough was moving east into the Atlantic off the Southeast US coast line. An upper trough was moving onshore across the western US. At 1 PM temperatures were in the lower to mid 60s across the CWA and afternoon highs should peak out in the upper 60s with some lower 70s across the southwest counties.
Southwesterly winds will continue to intensify this evening and into Sunday as a ridge of high pressure is pinched over the Southern Plains and anomalously low heights dig into the PacNW.