Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
539 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015 Little happening in the short term, as axis of high pressure extends northeast-southwest across the forecast area this afternoon. As with previous systems that have moved across the area the past couple of months, our CWA will be right in the middle of where two mid level troughs will be phasing together. On the surface, the low pressure area is still developing in the southwestern US and will not move out into the southern plains until Saturday evening. However, a cold front will be dropping down into Illinois at the same time, and how far this gets into central Illinois will determine where the cutoff of the warm air and cold air is, which will also determine where the heavy snowfall will occur.
Had planned on letting the advisory fall off but last observation had freezing rain in it so extended the advisory out through 11 pm MST. A mix of freezing rain. and snow is possible tonight along with freezing fog. /ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/ An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to the track of shrtwv trofs. Overnight we expect that the precip shield will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area of lift resides over much of the region.
/ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
FROM THE SFC TO 950 MB THE SOUNDING IS 10-15 F COOLER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THERE WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND NE FL COAST AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO NNE WINDS OFF THE WARMER WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY DID NOT GET AS WARM. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED NEAR FREEZING ALL DAY AND THIS HAS BORNE OUT WITH SNOW SHOWING ON WEBCAMS BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVEMENTS AND ROADS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE FREEZING OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND DWPTS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SO CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES IN ALL GUIDANCE WILL BE COOLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WE DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR ABOVE 6500 FEET TO INCLUDE THESE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON IMPACT BASED CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
/ISSUED 355 PM CST FRI Jan 30 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) An upper trough over Baja California was bringing lift and scattered showers to Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
548 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS. CURRENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SHOULD START TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL ALLOW A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS EVENT ARE COMPLEX GIVEN PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES VERY NEAR FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
938 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY.
536 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015 An upper level low is currently located across southern California as an upper level trough is starting to push into the Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge is located across the plains ahead of these features. Tonight the trough will dive out of the northwest towards the region as the upper level low tracks to the southeast and will they will phase together over the region. As this occurs the ridge will push east and flatten tonight into Saturday. As the upper level low tracks east and the trough south, rain will start to spread towards the area.
/ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW ENERGY AND MOISTURE PICKED UP BY WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
COOL CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MUCH OF THE AREA EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. FARTHER WEST THERE HAVE BEEN DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL UNDER MORE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS. WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
Lows tonight will occur before midnight, then steady to gradually rising temperatures are expected through the remainder of the night as southerly winds draw warmer air into the region ahead of the approaching system.
624 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
/ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/ An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to the track of shrtwv trofs. Overnight we expect that the precip shield will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area of lift resides over much of the region.
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.
After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of Arctic air. Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high pressure system slides to the east. The upper pattern will become more zonal as an upper level trough takes shape out west.
Strong 1042 mb arctic high pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri morning. Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind chills.
TEMPS WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST PLACES AFFECTED BY THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL BY NOON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PLACES IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS THAT DO NOT GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL SAT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1118 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 935 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ PATCHY FREEZING FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART, WHILE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS OVER ABOUT THE SE 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED JUST ABOVE FREEZING DESPITE THE CLOUDS IN HSV AND SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
1005 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AT 930 AM AND SHOULD BE THROUGH SE TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /ISSUED 404 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD COOLING AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE US 59 CORRIDOR HAVE FALLEN TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM MIDLAND TO ABILENE TO GAINESVILLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 QUIET DEEP WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON SETTLES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WHERE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-3KFT ARE ONSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS LATER TONIGHT TO BE AS LOW AS SEEN ON THU MORNING AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND 975-950MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO PROHIBIT PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS FARTHER INLAND AND ALSO WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE. NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.
The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has pushed well to the south.
WITH UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA.
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE 5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB AIR DROPS SOUTH.
1247 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500-6000 FT MSL. FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
EXPECT SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON.
There may be some light accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most of the area. There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad upper trough in place across most of the conus.
201 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT SEA OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE, AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NRN NM/PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT.
205 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WAA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS. TROUGH MAY SHIFT INLAND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS SE AREAS FRI NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS THERE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
454 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S. * QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.
BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL- ERN CONUS.
336 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO LOCATIONS, P-TYPE, AND AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW-BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.
1209 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NE SFC WIND THIS AFTN WILL ACCOMPANY MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND.
309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW WINDS BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH A SHARP CHANGE IN AIRMASS RESULTING IN TEMPS SOME 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THE HIGH PLAINS THURS NIGHT WHICH THEN ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK ON FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 1005 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AT 930 AM AND SHOULD BE THROUGH SE TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. RETURN FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER.
238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.
321 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT AND INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (0. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BISECTING THE NATION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO FLATTENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPSTREAM RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
1227 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING WILL RACE NORTHEAST TODAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MS RIVER VALLEY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY AS TEMP RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AROUND THE ARKLATEX WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT LOW4ER ACADIANA BY AROUND NOON AND SHOULD FILTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS A FAST MOVING DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKE SHREVEPORT AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY.
WEAK IMPULSE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT WARMER TEMPS AND ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. AS CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SAT NIGHT WITH QUASI NWLY FLOW ALOFT EVOLVING TO SWLY FLOW BY SAT NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN CA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MID STATE. MAINLY BELOW FREEZING. MID 20S N TO AROUND FREEZING S. WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING SAT NIGHT AS SLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AND WILL TREND LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS.
Have also had a few reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast at this time. Will continue to monitor and update if freezing drizzle ends up persisting. Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER COLD. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SHARPER OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH. BRIDGES.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SK. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AT THE MOMENT.
1108 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
204 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA UNDER SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.
837 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2015 Dry, warm, and breezy weather today, then a pattern change on Friday leading to cooler and wetter weather into the weekend.
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT.
1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF I-30. /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.