Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
403 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY.
BUT DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM.
DRT COULD SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES.
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ALLOWING FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE RUNNING ABOUT 2-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS AND THAT TEMPS ARE ALREADY RUNNING WARMER COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO.
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS RISE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHICH SERVES TO REALLY SPIKE POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CAT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LAYS OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LESS STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER RIDGE ON THE PLAINS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. AND A MATURING CYCLONE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS NWRN WY. WINDS ALOFT AT 300MB WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U. THE HRRR SHOWS OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THOUGH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS IN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS 80S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT SAILED THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND IS NOW ACROSS SRN SD. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE LIFT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION A BIT MORE WITH HEIGHTS RISING ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE KSTL AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
500MB RIDGING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE IS THE WORD OF THE DAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE TEXAS REGION PROVIDING FAVORABLE GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
804 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY.
AT 17Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US FROM VIRGINIA TO TENNESSEE.
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER ARE QUITE CONCERNING WITH DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS INCREASING THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO NORTHERLY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS. THIS MORNING'S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING PRESENTS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY (500MB TEMP OF -7C) WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WE'RE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS THE DRY AIR/WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON MOST DEVELOPMENT. I'VE ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON MIXING OUT WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. EXPECTING SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
929 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
855 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IS SITUATED BETWEEN MID-ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH AND BUILDING SRN PLAINS RIDGE. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DEEP-LAYER AND FLOW IS CONFLUENT ALOFT AND DIFFLUENT BELOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY BE WINNING-OUT IN THE LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION DEPARTMENT AS IT NUDGES/BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT GIVEN STRONG SENSIBLE HEATING AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S.
347 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATING AREA WX SHOULD RETREAT TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A TROF/WEAKNESS TO EVENTUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE NRN GULF.
1150 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
These clouds are associated with a 925mb thermal trough that should stall out across our NE CWA as we move into the daylight hours. Eventually the clouds should scatter out, but will likely result in cooler highs across our NE. Temperatures should fall into the low and mid 60s under mostly clear skies and generally light winds. As we move into Sunday, the Ohio River Valley will find itself in the overlap between a belt of stronger westerlies aloft and the NE periphery of an upper ridge dominating the southern CONUS.
-HOWERTON THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL 12Z-15Z WHEN A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT MAY REACH KRSL.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) Little change is expected in our weather tonight and Sunday, as the upper level ridge over Texas remains in place. With slight warming and drying of the airmass, respective overnight low temperatures and highs Sunday are expected to be about a degree warmer than today.
333 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY KEEPING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CALM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
317 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY.
Upper level ridge is nosing in from the southwest today. This will keep rain chances very limited and temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday.
1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GENERAL SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S.
FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALOFT DUE TO H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U. TEMPS ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AS IS FOR NOW.
533 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CHILLY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG H5 RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS THEN PROG TO SPREAD FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS WEST.
The upper level ridge that has kept the Ozarks in a summer like weather pattern will hold on for one more day this Labor Day. The upper level trough that will push a forecast cold front into the region continues to be a bit slower in suppressing the ridge to the south. The upper level trough will slowly begin to win out over the ridge with the advertised cold front slowly making its way into portions of the Ozarks by late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST.
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA.
325 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON TUESDAY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
126 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER CANADA. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. AND THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AT 850MB MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LOW ELONGATES TOWARD THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS WASHINGTON MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SW WASHINGTON EARLY TUESDAY.
THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WITH CONDITIONS A BIT WARMER AND DRIER THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ CDFNT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE ARND A WEAK UPPER LOW.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
115 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. HIGHS NEAR 108 POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS BY WED AND AROUND 100 FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVE SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN WI WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED ULD.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. SO THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY MAY NEED A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH WARMER VALLEYS TOPPING 100 AND LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN AND 105-108 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
234 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 Quiet night expected with mid level ridge still across the area.
WITH MOIST AIR MASS AND UPPER LEVEL TROF NEAR BY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 TRICKY TEMP FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESETERN COUNTIES HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER BUT THE NORTHWEST HAS QUICKLY GONE UP INTO THE 70S. THE AIRMASS CHANGE HAS OCCURRED WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS CANADA. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA SHIFTS EAST.
TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS DEW POINTS ARE HOVERING AROUND THOSE TEMPERATURES. WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF PENSACOLA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AL WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. FORECAST IS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER PATTERN THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
302 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
145 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE COAST AND NORTH PART AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
The upper level high pressure will retreat west toward southern New Mexico/Northern Mexico. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue to migrate into the eastern US.
THERE WAS A SUBTLE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT MATCHED UP WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES MIDWEEK WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
132 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE AREA BY MID WEEK. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
NOT SO IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED WESTERN TROUGH. THE PARENT LOW IN THE TROUGH IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH IS AIDING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. QG FIELDS SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE JET/TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED. MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HOWEVER AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE YAMPA VALLEY POSSIBLE TOUCHING THE MID 30S IN LOCAL POCKETS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVERHEAD WELL INTO THE WEEK AS RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH TAKES HOLD OF THE EASTERN STATES. WITH THE MONSOON EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY TO WAUTOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SO WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY KEEPING ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND ONLY RAMP UP PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE OVER EAST- CENTRAL WI AFTER 09Z. WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN NORTH OF THE LOW IN CONCERT WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD CREATE AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI DURING THE MORNING. CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
409 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK. COURTESY OF LINGERING OF LOW-LEVEL AIR RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NC.
IN CONTRAST TO THE UPPER LOW. A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONTS. WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
404 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF UTAH TONIGHT. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE PASSING TROUGH TO NORTH MAY COME INTO PLAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW TRAILING THE EXITING TROUGH WILL DRAW VERY DRY AIR INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK.
Low pressure continues to spin south of the area over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This low is pretty weak and will lift only slowly northward toward the FL Panhandle through tonight. Look for overnight lows in the lower 70s.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD.
149 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
325 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THE MID TERM TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTIONS AND A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED WITH BIAS TOWARDS WARMER GFS SOLUTIONS AS ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AT THE SAME TIME SHEARING THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS BRINGS A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE FOR THE SEASON. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN PLAINS SINCE LAST WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UP WITH LATER RUNS.
THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE SMALL SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN AN EVEN BETTER POSITION TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES.
Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for Tuesday night for now, due to flash flood guidance being on the high side and the very dry antecedent conditions preceding this system.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST.
ALL ACTIVITY MOVING WEST NORTH OF SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST THIS WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MOVE NNW INTO SW GA AND TRACK NORTH.
420 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 THIS AFTERNOON THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTNEN AND BE PINCHED OFF. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AS ITS TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH.
338 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 Late summer heat will continue into Tuesday with the forecast trended warmer despite the potential for more extensive cloud cover tomorrow.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER AL/GA BORDER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN LEADING TO MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS TC LINDA PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST ON A NWRD TREK.