Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
512 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather today with highs in the lower 60s. Another soaking rain is expected Monday through Monday night as low pressure tracks through the region.
Upper ridge amplifies through the region today while cirrus wrap from W Gulf over the state. On Monday, an upper trough moves from the S Plains into the Ohio River Valley traversing the upper ridge. Upper energy pushes surface cold front through the Deep South with breezy southerly winds, warm and humid conditions and another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
132 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather through Sunday. A series of low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. Stratus is expected to continue clearing from W-E as high pressure builds in. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
614 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather today with highs in the lower 60s. Another soaking rain is expected Monday through Monday night as low pressure tracks through the region.
The heaviest amounts are likely over Marias Pass and throughout the high back-country of Glacier.
Patchy fog could also form over the interior areas late tonight into early Sunday morning, due to the low level moisture in place and the light winds. High pressure is building to the north of the area, as a weak boundary over the area, continues to dissipate today. The high, to the north, will gradually sink to the southeast, turning our wind flow more to the southeast and even south over the next several days.
The next significant chance of rain associated with the upper low will arrive early this afternoon near the Red River and western north TX before lifting across southern and central OK later in the day. Showers will remain possible overnight into Monday morning along and east of I35 on the backside of the low.
A second round of convection is likely later today, as the upper level low itself moves across the area. Otherwise, much cooler today behind a cold front that has cleared the southern counties as of 08Z.
The northern stream has a wave moving out of southern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba, which will remain to our north, though will supply us with a weak cold frontal passage tonight. Our PoPs are a bit lower by late morning into the afternoon than what most of the CAMs would indicate, but with initial dry airmass and not much more than weak isentropic upglide to generate precip, kept PoPs in the high chance range, though did speed up their northeast push into and across the area today.
Convection was noted just to the W of AR as well, along the WRN periphery of the high. The main concern today/early tonight wl be how far N the warm front works into AR and the resulting chances of severe storms.
627 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Low pressure over the western Atlantic this morning continues to pull away while high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley.
433 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will build over the region today.
146 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight. The high will drift east on Sunday and set the stage for low pressure to move toward the area from the Missouri on Monday.
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The next round of rain is ongoing across the area as a large mid to upper level system moves into the High Plains. Areas further north have a bit of dry air still located in the lower levels, which is really eating into potential rainfall amounts further north than the HWY 50 corridor. This will bring with it much better mid/upper level ascent as the PV anomaly becomes much more pronounced with the main trough.
152 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure builds in through Sunday.
629 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will bring milder conditions today.
620 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will bring milder conditions today.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s in the northeast to central, to the lower 60s in the southwest. The movement of the surface and upper low pressure systems will be the key to the amount and severity of severe storms over AR. Tonight Through Monday The upper level low continues over the Four Corners Region and a bit south of there. with an upper ridge over the Mississippi River Valley beginning to move east. This ridge will move east of Arkansas tonight and the upper low will move into Texas Sunday and through Arkansas on Monday. As high pressure moves east of Arkansas tonight moisture will be allowed to increase. Will keep rain chances going through Monday as the upper low traverses the state.
A dry cold front will move through on Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and producing breezy conditions.
532 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will build over the region today.
631 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A low pressure system will move southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday, bringing snow to the region. The highest accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expect north of the Toll Road.
907 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Current forecast looks on track with a dry cold front still forecast to come through the area tonight. Latest surface map showed low pressure over central Minnesota, with an associated warm front edging into western Illinois. As the low tracks into eastern Wisconsin overnight, skies will be partly cloudy for a time in our area. The mean flow across the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48 states is not as straight west-east zonal for much of the period as suggested yesterday. Now the flow is more northwesterly, which will help keep temperatures at least a little cooler than normal much of the time.
Tonight in response to upper level energy diving from south central Canada into the Great Lakes region the low pressure will push/pull a weak cold front across the CWA but due to a lack of moisture no precipitation is expected. High pressure slowly overspreading the area in the wake of the front should keep the region dry through the end of the short term period. The latest blend has come in a couple degrees warmer for this weekends precipitation event. Temperatures were a little warmer across the board for the extended. However with temperatures very near freezing for the area. The combination of warmer temperatures and less QPF resulted less than half the previous possible snow amounts.
Right now satellite and radar clearly depict the dry slot behind the main first round of snow, with much warmer IR satellite readings across the dry slot. The lingering moisture will push south of the region by Tuesday night, as arctic high pressure moves into the Northland.
542 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Occasional precipitation is expected with crossing low pressure tonight and Tuesday, and with a mid week trough. Isolated-scattered snow showers should continue to diminish this evening under building ridging. Snow is then expected to develop late this evening and overnight in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Snow should continue Tuesday with continued ascent and deep layer moisture as the center of the low tracks across the lower Great Lakes. Enough warm air could advect in to result a mix or changeover to rain from PIT south Tuesday outside of the higher elevations.
Quiet weather will prevail through Tuesday night as the upper pattern flattens out behind the departing East Coast trof. Just enough ridging Tuesday night that winds will subside, but plenty of cloud cover will keep min temps just above freezing in most spots.
Weak high pressure builds in this evening, followed by rapidly approaching Alberta Clipper and light snow breaking out again after midnight. Steadiest snowfall will be across the region between 11z and 15z and best warm advection will abate after 18Z, resulting in snow tapering to snow showers and temps rising above freezing. Max temps will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s southeast due to downslope component. Med range guidance all showing mean upper trough over the eastern through the rest of the week, supporting a cold and generally dry forecast.
High pressure at the surface will allow southerly winds to prevail and warmer temperatures should occur through Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s and highs tomorrow will reach into the lower 70s.
941 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure will persist into mid week.
A cold front will dip into the northern reaches of the CWA late Tuesday afternoon and evening.
502 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Light west to northwest winds will prevail overnight and then the winds will remain light as they turn to the north behind a cold front early Tuesday morning.
Steadiest snowfall will be across the region between 11z and 15z and best warm advection will abate after 18Z, resulting in snow tapering to snow showers and temps rising above freezing. Max temps will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s southeast due to downslope component. Med range guidance all showing mean upper trough over the eastern through the rest of the week, supporting a cold and generally dry forecast.
841 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A look at water vapor satellite loops we find a strong upper low heading northeast off the Canadian Maritimes. Short wave trajectories are pivoting eastward behind the low cutting off the advection into the Southeast States. Another vigorous upper low is spinning over the Baja Peninsula, and helping to steer a zonal flow across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are slowly increasing this evening out of the northwest to north near 15 knots on the waters west of the Lower Keys and Long Key Light, near 10 knots at Molasses Reef and Alligator Light, and 5 to 10 knots at the island terminals. High pressure will travel across the Gulf of Mexico while the pressure gradient ripples across the Keys area through the short term.
High pressure is moving across the northern gulf coast this afternoon and a very dry air mass is mixing down to the surface at most locations in the region. Through the next few days the ridge will continue east bound while low pressure moves across the plains and great lakes. A weak cold front will move across or into the region this weekend with a very modest cool down possible.
648 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure will persist into mid week.
Northwest winds will diminish Tuesday morning as a weak high pressure ridge moves east across the CWA.
941 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Quiet evening ongoing across the region as high pressure dominates the northern gulf coast. High pressure is moving across the northern gulf coast this afternoon and a very dry air mass is mixing down to the surface at most locations in the region. Through the next few days the ridge will continue east bound while low pressure moves across the plains and great lakes. A weak cold front will move across or into the region this weekend with a very modest cool down possible.
440 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 21z surface analysis had clipper low over central MN with cold front into the southern plains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 64 42 64 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 59 39 61 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 37 59 39 60 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 57 35 54 / 10 0 0 20.
544 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area tonight, but no precipitation is expected due to lack of moisture through the column and unfavorable upper dynamics across the CWA.
634 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Snow showers will slowly diminish this afternoon across central New York as high pressure briefly builds over the region.
642 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure builds across the region tonight with mostly clear, cold, and calm conditions.
1) High pressure settling over our southern zones late tonight will allow winds to go calm and lead to minimal mixing within the boundary layer. Winds and seas will continue to decrease as high pressure settles over the area.
/Issued 231 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017/ Latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure has built into the Tennessee Valley allowing for a drier and continued cool flow regime over the local area. After a morning of widespread temps at or just below freezing. Some embedded energy in main mid level trough will remain largely north of the area on Tuesday maintaining the benign pattern.
958 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Weak high pressure will build across tonight. Low pressure dropping out of the northern Plains will approach on Tuesday, then weaken and drift to the north as a secondary low develops offshore.
556 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Latest surface map showed low pressure over central Minnesota, with an associated warm front edging into western Illinois. As the low tracks into eastern Wisconsin overnight, skies will be partly cloudy for a time in our area. The mean flow across the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48 states is not as straight west-east zonal for much of the period as suggested yesterday. Now the flow is more northwesterly, which will help keep temperatures at least a little cooler than normal much of the time.
525 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure over the west-central Gulf will maintain clear skies tonight into early Tuesday. While not red flag warning criteria, conditions are supportive of fire growth especially grass fires given the low RH. Upper level pattern is beginning to flatten but still a trough over the eastern U. and a ridge over the western U.
A weak cold front is slowly making its way south across the local area this afternoon. with many afternoon readings already in the lower to mid 60s across the region. As the aforementioned cold front then continues to make its way south of the local area through the overnight hours. winds will finally subside across the local area and despite the cooler forecast temperatures, Tuesday should end up being a fairly nice afternoon with temperatures in the 40s and winds less than 15 mph. Northwesterly flow will be in place to start the extended periods with an upper level trough across the eastern Pacific expected to eventually move on-shore across the Pacific Northwest towards the end of the work week and track across the intermountain west over the upcoming weekend.
ForecastBuilder tool did introduce some light freezing rain across the northern valley however returns in this area are very light so not expecting any significant impacts should any rain/drizzle fall. Mostly snow in the higher returns north of Hwy 200 with a possible mix further south from Fargo through Park Rapids. As the 500mb weak trough continues to swing to the south out of Canada it will interact with favorable exit region of 300mb jet allowing for episodes of light snow to traverse the northern plains tonight into Tuesday. Slightly cooler for max temps with upper 20s to near 30 expected as the blyr temperatures cool only slightly.
/issued 318 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ A weak cold front will move south across most of Oklahoma by noon on Tuesday, bringing only slightly cooler air into the region.
539 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Northwest flow continues over Arkansas with high pressure to the south.
905 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Occasional precipitation is expected with crossing low pressure tonight and Tuesday, and with a mid week trough. Snow is expected to develop tonight, mainly N of a ZZV to MGW line, in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Snow should continue Tuesday with continued ascent and deep layer moisture as the center of the low tracks across the lower Great Lakes. Enough warm air could advect in to result a mix or changeover to rain from PIT south Tuesday outside of the higher elevations.
935 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Made minor changes to the ongoing forecast such as tweaking overnight temperatures a degree or so downward, as current thinking is despite a west-southwest light wind speed, clear skies and relatively light winds may give way to slightly cooler conditions than originally anticipated. Nonetheless, temperatures will still be warmer than recent night /30s and 40s/.
These winds have led to evening temps cooling at a slightly cooler rate than forecast, and have adjusted hourly temps a bit. A cold front will dip into the northern reaches of the CWA late Tuesday afternoon and evening.
311 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 An upper level ridge over the southwest part of the country will result in a west-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. A cold front will back into the northeast corner of the state late Tuesday afternoon. Above the sharp frontal inversion, the air above is warmer and much drier. Based on model cross sections and soundings of temp, theta-e and rh, portions of the plains have a reasonably good chance of seeing low clouds, patchy fog and possibly some freezing drizzle form after midnight. With the best upslope moisture apparently up around the Wyoming border, the fog and freezing drizzle threat will probably be more confined to areas along the Front Range north of the Denver metro area. Meanwhile in the high country.
Given the lack of expected high winds this afternoon, the decision was made to cancel the High Wind Warning.
430 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 A nearly zonal pattern remains in place with very weak ridging in the southwest and a seasonal Hudson Bay low providing a very large and broad troughing pattern from the northern Plains to New England. Tuesday: A cold front will push across the region Tuesday night. Highs are still expected to reach the lower 50s to lower 60s with temperatures falling through the afternoon and falling sharply through the evening.
A nearly zonal pattern remains in place with very weak ridging in the southwest and a seasonal Hudson Bay low providing a very large and broad troughing pattern from the northern Plains to New England. Tuesday: A cold front will push across the region Tuesday night. Highs are still expected to reach the lower 50s to lower 60s with temperatures falling through the afternoon and falling sharply through the evening.
Low level thermal progs for Tuesday support afternoon temperatures warmer than those seen today south of the boundary, and even north of the boundary, temperatures will not be much cooler than they were today.
A strong mid level ridge will remain in place across the region through midweek.
Slightly cooler air will filter into the forecast area, although temperature readings will still be well above late January averages.
In combination with the dry airmass and light winds, lows tonight should be able to radiate down a little cooler than the previous night. Cooler 850-hPa temperatures are progged across the northeast zones.
Lows in the lower 30s across the I-10 corridor, with low to mid 40s across the Big Country. Afternoon highs on Tuesday at or a little warmer than what we will see today, with highs in the mid and upper 70s.
High pressure will dominate our weather with the storm track remaining well north of the area. Varying degrees of high pressure immediately west and/or south of our area will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures.
839 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure builds across the region tonight with mostly clear, cold, and calm conditions.
1032 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure builds across the region tonight with mostly clear, cold, and calm conditions.
but the cold front can be seen slowly sinking southward across south central WA into N Central OR at this time.
Temps should continue to fall a few more degrees heading into the overnight hrs, but lows Tue morning should still be on the order of 10F or so warmer than the past few mornings, as return flow develops over the SE states.
Under sunny skies, everybody has warmed into the 40s with several readings in the low 50s. We'll maintain this warming trend tomorrow when many will reach the low 60s and remain dry.
500 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Models in good agreement amplified ridge currently over the west coast will break down with large scale flow transitioning to near- zonal over the conus heading into this weekend.
748 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track into New York state Tuesday. A warm front will cross the Mid Atlantic late tonight with a cold front crossing Tuesday night.
/ISSUED 525 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ High pressure over the west-central Gulf will maintain clear skies tonight into early Tuesday. While not red flag warning criteria, conditions are supportive of fire growth especially grass fires given the low RH. Upper level pattern is beginning to flatten but still a trough over the eastern U. and a ridge over the western U.
Highs into the upper 70s for many areas, with a few locations possibly into the low 80s.
601 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 At H5 closed low over the Northeast CONUS with trough extending into the Carolinas. Cutoff low over Baja with ridge into the Pacific northwest. A cold front is slated to push in from the north Tuesday morning across northern Nebraska, then move across southwest Nebraska during the afternoon hours.
temperatures should be a bit warmer. (ISSUED 539 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 ) Northwest flow continues over Arkansas with high pressure to the south.
With flow becoming more zonal and high pressure move off to the southeast, we will see a light wind through the night and milder temps than this morning. Minimum temps will generally range from around 40 well inland to the lower 50s near the coast.
/issued 305 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ SHORT TERM:(Tonight through Tuesday Night): Zonal 500mb flow will continue across Deep South Texas ahead of a weakening closed low pressure system over the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure is directly overhead the southern tip of Texas and Northeast Mexico.
424 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure continues over the southwestern CONUS through midweek. Forecast challenges in the short term are limited to overnight lows in snow-covered valley locations, where guidance has continued to come in much warmer than reality.
High pressure will build over the Florida Peninsula Tonight with the forecast of clear skies and cold overnight lows in the 30s inland with near 40 degrees along the coast. The High position will support widespread frost with near calm winds across inland NE FL and a Frost Advisory has already been posted. High pressure ridge flattens out just south of North Florida on Tuesday and expect breezy SW winds at 15G20-25 mph to help boost temps back into the lower 70s under sunny skies.
After collaboration with all surrounding offices, and based on trends and upstream observations and expectations, we have decided to cancel the high wind warning for all of western/central North Dakota. Having said that, we will replace the high wind warning with a wind advisory across southern North Dakota which includes the James River Valley through early this evening. Cold air advection will gradually increase as two more subtle cold fronts slide from north to south.
Southwest winds near the surface veered to the west the in the lower levels with westerly winds then prevailing throughout the remainder of the atmospheric column. The biggest difference this will have on the area will be in the form of warmer morning lows with mid 40s to near 50 tomorrow morning and then lower to mid 50s Wed morning. The biggest issue the medium range models are trying to solve for our area is the current low over the Baja and then the cold front Fri and Sun. As prev forecaster mentioned a cold front does try to push in Fri but stalls and that is another question, how far south does it make it.
A quiet week is in store with an upper level ridge dominating our weather pattern.
A weak cold front is completing its journey southward across the peninsula of Florida this afternoon. In its wake this evening, clearing skies and cooler temperatures will be ushered into South Florida. While temperatures may not warm up to the "Chamber of Commerce" averages that many come to expect in South Florida this time of year, the lack of strong wind will help keep things feeling warmer, particularly when standing in direct sunlight.