Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some very weak vertical ascent from a upper trough axis over the region in also contributing to the development. The center of a large upper ridge currently over New Mexico, Southwest Texas, and Northern Mexico will migrate northeast towards the Texas Panhandle by Friday night. As the ridge expands over the region, increased subsidence should limit rain chances even more on Friday. The upper trough axis will generally be east of the area, but it will still be close enough that a few isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out in North Central and Northeast Louisiana.
The upper level ridge will progress to the east allowing WAA to move into the area on Friday and bring us one of the warmest days of the year. Temperatures will get into the lower 90s with heat indices near or over 100F in places Friday afternoon. Strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon along a warm front just north of the Missouri River over northern Missouri.
Upper ridge will build in from the west with increasing temperatures expected.
Gusty afternoon winds develop Friday, and chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through Friday night as a weak low pressure system crosses Arizona.
High pressure will build in from the north over the weekend bringing drier and cooler conditions. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday, however still expecting warm conditions with high temperatures in the 80s. Cut-off low south of California rejoins jet stream flow Friday night leading to an amplification of a downstream ridge in the central US and a trough over the Northeast.
For Friday the upper level ridge in the southwest slowly starts moving towards the central plains.
Going into today, the upper level ridge portion of an omega block currently over the southern Rockies/Plains region, will continue to remain in place for much of the short term period. Low pressure remains off the west coast, with a trough over the east. Little movement of the ridge will give the CWA yet another round of hot and above normal temperatures today and will persist right into the first half of the upcoming weekend.
Weak upper and mid-level troughing will feature throughout the day. Overall, expect best coverage of afternoon convection will once again be over the higher elevations. Scattered showers/storms will continue to develop this afternoon with the broad troughing across the region.
The lower clouds in the west could have some light precip as evident on the radar loops, so will throw in some small pops to cover that over parts of the area. Upper ridge has been flattened.
Temperatures and dewpoints are also a little warmer and have trended those parameters warmer through mid morning, as well. The mid and upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua state of Mexico gradually expands to western Texas today and the southern Plains Friday.
/issued 428 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb mid-level ridging centered across northern Mexico will continue to strengthen and expand into Texas over the next few days. The northerly mid-level flow around the ridge will continue to advect dry air aloft across the region.
High pressure will build across Indiana on Friday night. bringing cooler and drier weather for the weekend. High pressure was found across Wisconsin. along and near the cold front.
Overnight a ridge will begin to build back across the Midsouth from the West. This feature will limit coverage of precipitation tomorrow, but also result in warmer temperatures.
Also note scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the "warm front" portion of the MCV over far se IL into nw KY. Will allow for an isolated heat of the day storm here and there, but expect the bigger message will lie with the building heat and humidity as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the Plains. With the aid of sunshine, afternoon temperatures will be running in the lower half of the 90s in areas along and west of the MS River, closer to the upper level ridge.
Cooler airmass and a northwest wind on Friday with sunshine.
Wisconsin is currently under high pressure this afternoon. With the higher dewpoints and the minimal diurnally driven instability, the lake breeze has provided enough lift to generate some pop up rain showers. By tonight an upper level trough will begin to move through the northern plains. By Friday morning the cold front will move through southern Wisconsin. There will be periods of rain showers and thunderstorms tonight through Friday as the trough passes Wisconsin. The better forcing, lift, and moisture for thunderstorms will be Friday morning into the early afternoon hours, when the cold front passes. An upper-lvl ridge will amplify and move eastward this weekend placing the area under high pressure and subsidence. This, in combination with north winds behind the cold front, will force out the muggy air mass, leading to a dry, sunny, and pleasant weekend.
329 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 A mid-level embedded perturbation will help touch off some thunderstorms this afternoon near the cold front in South Dakota, and along a trough over Nebraska/Kansas this afternoon. Cold front will likely stall in the southern CWA or just south for Friday, but best moisture hold on more to the east.
Onshore flow and an early morning marine layer brought some relief to the coast with temps running several degrees cooler than yesterday. Interior locations are running a few degrees cooler than yesterday as well, but temperatures are still rather hot. For tonight, a shallow marine layer will begin to become better established as the ridge of high pressure continues to move eastward. A big cooldown is still on track for Friday with temps 5-10 degrees cooler near the coast and as much as 20 degrees cooler across interior locations. Another shot of colder air will spill over the region as a trough moves through this weekend.
Lingering showers/storms will end Friday morning as drier air works south behind the front with high pressure settling in. Surface through mid-level ridging will build across the area this weekend with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 70s and 80s.
Wrn and ncntl Nebraska will be post-frontal Friday and the easterlies should lift moisture onto the high plains of WY causing storm development off the Laramie Range. A strong low level jet and warm front develops Friday night. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances are in place for this warm front.
355 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Weather map shows high pressure ridge across the Gulf, keeping a light southeast wind. By Friday, will have a little more influence of a building upper level ridge from the west that should inhibit convection to 20% during the afternoon hours over Central and South Central Louisiana.
235 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge is currently centered to our west, over the western half of New Mexico and western Colorado. A weak impulse will move around the northeastern periphery of the upper level ridge and enter the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon. The low cloud field should break up by late morning or midday at the latest. The upper level ridge will edge a bit farther east into our area on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, and are expected to range from the lower to mid 90s in our southeastern counties, to the upper 90s across the northern Big Country and parts of the Concho Valley.
The Lower Keys were once again the big winners with rainfall accumulations. 35" with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere across the Lower Keys.
The best chances will be Friday and Friday night as a cold front moves through.
With weak troughing parked over the local area aloft, a persistence forecast is favored through the near term.
Highs should be in the low to mid 80s, although locations that stay in the clouds or see any precipitation could stay in the middle to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday as a weak northern stream wave brings a cold front through the area.
This feature and an accompanying trough should move across this portion of the Tennessee Valley in the overnight. The models depict another MCS in the northern Plains later tonight that may drop all the way southeast through the lower OH and into the lower TN/MS valleys by Friday night.
Warmer air aloft may keep overall CAPE values lower during the day, and overall shear levels will remain muted.
/issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge is currently centered to our west, over the western half of New Mexico and western Colorado. A weak impulse will move around the northeastern periphery of the upper level ridge and enter the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon. The low cloud field should break up by late morning or midday at the latest. The upper level ridge will edge a bit farther east into our area on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, and are expected to range from the lower to mid 90s in our southeastern counties, to the upper 90s across the northern Big Country and parts of the Concho Valley.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into Friday as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep South Texas.
As of 20Z Thursday afternoon broad WNW midlevel flow was present across the Central Plains with an amplifying ridge across the SW US.
807 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Weak high pressure will generally support fair weather through much of Friday before, a cold front passes through late Friday and Friday night allowing for some unsettled weather. weak high pressure should provide us with fair dry weather tonight. A surface cold front will be located over the western/central Great Lakes by the start of Friday and will make its way east throughout the day. Highs on Friday will climb up into the upper 70s and low 80s, with the cooler places being located along the Southern Tier as they will be socked in with cloud cover from the stationary front overhead. As a cold front approaches and crosses the region Friday night we can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build across Indiana on Friday night. bringing cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s and highs tomorrow will be in the 80s.
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 High pressure will move offshore tonight. Weak low pressure will develop along the Southeast Coast, impacting the area through Friday night.
What storms develop are expected to stay north of Highway 36, as warmer temperatures aloft look to cap us off areas farther south Friday morning. Currently, models indicate that any left over boundary in northern or central Missouri will likely be reinforced by the cold front currently in Nebraska and Iowa.
A mid-level embedded perturbation will help touch off some thunderstorms this afternoon near the cold front in South Dakota, and along a trough over Nebraska/Kansas this afternoon. Cold front will likely stall in the southern CWA or just south for Friday, but best moisture hold on more to the east.
Skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy, with temperatures persisting in the low to mid 70s.
The upper trough is making its way through middle TN and trying to provide a slight punch. The upper trough is approaching the area and will move through CKV by 03Z. Outside of the line associated with the upper trough VFR conditions are anticipated. With the trough heavy rainfall with IFR VIS and MVFR CIGs could occur.
An upper trough will move over the area for another round of cool showery weather through the weekend.
On Friday, gusty winds will develop and chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through Friday night as a weak low pressure system crosses Arizona.
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Weak high pressure will generally support fair weather through much of Friday before, a cold front passes through late Friday and Friday night allowing for some unsettled weather. Weak high pressure will provide us with fair dry weather overnight. A surface cold front will be located over the western/central Great Lakes by the start of Friday and will make its way east throughout the day. Highs on Friday will climb up into the upper 70s and low 80s, with the cooler places being located along the Southern Tier as they will be socked in with cloud cover from the stationary front overhead. As a cold front approaches and crosses the region Friday night we can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Another cold front will move in from the northwest on Friday night.
High pressure aloft will continue to bring hot temperatures to the area again tomorrow.
/issued 355 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/ Weather map shows high pressure ridge across the Gulf, keeping a light southeast wind. By Friday, will have a little more influence of a building upper level ridge from the west that should inhibit convection to 20% during the afternoon hours over Central and South Central Louisiana.
This drops south and even southwest into the high theta-E air across the lower MS valley. The models depict another MCS in the northern Plains later tonight that may drop all the way southeast through the lower OH and into the lower TN/MS valleys by Friday night.
Strong thunderstorms which moved northwest off Cuba late this afternoon have ultimately weakened and blobbed out into a decaying area of stratiform rain which will soon brush the Lower Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis will extend westward across Central Florida through Friday night.
639 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Weak high pressure will generally support fair weather through much of Friday before, a cold front passes through late Friday and Friday night allowing for some unsettled weather. weak high pressure should provide us with fair dry weather tonight. A surface cold front will be located over the western/central Great Lakes by the start of Friday and will make its way east throughout the day. Highs on Friday will climb up into the upper 70s and low 80s, with the cooler places being located along the Southern Tier as they will be socked in with cloud cover from the stationary front overhead. As a cold front approaches and crosses the region Friday night we can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms.
248 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge will be centered over West Texas today, keeping our area hot and dry. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 90s, except far southeast counties where a few readings in the lower 90s will occur.
On Friday, gusty winds will develop and chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through Friday night as a weak low pressure system crosses Arizona. Dry weather returns for all by Saturday afternoon, though temperatures will be much cooler this weekend.
Cloud cover and precipitation associated with the convective complex should limit max temps to around normal for early June with highs mainly in the lower and middle 80s.
423 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Currently - An Atlantic ridge noses across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes.
319 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 1012 to 1015mb High pressure across western SD will gradually move east this morning and through the day Friday. As this feature sets up in western Minnesota this evening, low pressure out west will be deepening and we start to see the gradient increase across the state. We also see increasingly warmer air off the surface, with 700mb temperatures nearing 13C. Outside of elevated weak convective showers and storms there doesn't appear to be much risk to the CWA until after loss of daytime heating and enhancement of the low level jet which is addressed in the extended discussion.
The upper trough axis will be off to our east and south today, and that is where most of the showers and storms look to be this afternoon. With temps climbing into the lower 90s, isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible.
Thereafter, things really quiet down the rest of the day and for much of the weekend, as broad upper troughing digs through the Great Lakes while elongated low level ridging overtakes much of the region from Hudson Bay.
Overnight a ridge will begin to build back across the Midsouth from the West. This feature will limit coverage of precipitation tomorrow, but also result in warmer temperatures. The ridge will continue to build Saturday boosting temperatures back into the 90s across the entire Midsouth.
Temperatures were generally in the low 70s, under passing cloud cover and light southerly breezes. Another hot and humid day is expected with highs in the low 90s. Afternoon highs on Saturday are also expected to reach the low 90s.
Warmer temps aloft will also allow for decreased instability and will only carry low end chance pops for much of the area although some mid range pops necessary for far southern zones as tropical moisture begins to increase.
The leading edge of a cold front approaches the KS/NE border toward sunrise with some low clouds possible. upper level ridging strengthens over the area with a large trough west of the Rockies. Low temperatures are expected to be rather mild in the low 60s to low 70s.
What storms develop are expected to stay north of Highway 36, as warmer temperatures aloft look to cap us off areas farther south Friday morning. Currently, models indicate that any left over boundary in northern or central Missouri will likely be reinforced by the cold front currently in Nebraska and Iowa. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain hot and humid, with heat indicies Friday likely to top out around 100 degrees with absolute temperatures in the low 90s. Temperatures will moderate a little through the weekend as the backdoor cold front settles into the region, though temperatures will still be in the 80s to low 90s.
Drier air mass and upper level ridge to the west should preclude any significant shower development.
311 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms can expected today and again Saturday until passage of a cold front. Showers continue south of PIT early this morning as weak forcing for ascent continues with the slow advance of an upper trough across the lower and mid OH Valley continues. That trough will continue to support additional showers, and possibly a few storms today, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh where moisture and instability will focus east of the systems trough axis. Deepening low pres digging across Quebec tonight will pull a cold front across the Great Lakes and Upr OH region on Saturday with continued shower and and slight storm chances.
335 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Today the upper level high to our west will start to move over the region and build. Temperatures will peak this afternoon a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Tomorrow the upper high over the region weakens as a trough moves into the southwestern states.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Showers continue south of PIT early this morning as weak forcing for ascent continues with the slow advance of an upper trough across the lower and mid OH Valley continues. That trough will continue to support additional showers, and possibly a few storms on Friday, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh where moisture and instability will focus in the ern quad of the system. Low pressure digging across Quebec Friday night will pull a cold front across the Upr OH region on Saturday with continued shower and storm chances.
351 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Weak ridging aloft continues to extend westward over the state from the Atlantic early this morning. At the surface, high pressure remains stretched across the south-central part of the peninsula with Tropical Depression Cristobal meandering over Mexico/Central America.
350 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Warm and humid weather is expected today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon with coverage increasing tonight as a cold front passes.
The upper trough is making its way through middle TN and trying to provide a slight punch.
The weekend then continues to look hot and humid with an upper level ridge building overhead.
The unseasonally high heat and humidity will persist through the weekend as the upper ridge remains overhead.
927 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring much cooler weather, an abundance of clouds, scattered showers, and gusty winds over the mountains and deserts.
252 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico with ridging extending north into the central Rockies. Highs today are forecast to be close to or a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight should again be on the warm side with readings in the lower 70s thanks to southerly winds and a moist airmass preventing much radiational cooling.
Activity is expected to weaken tonight ahead of the approaching area of low pressure scheduled to make a larger impact on the area Friday and Saturday.
Otherwise, another hot and humid day is in store with temps warming up into the upper 80s and dewpoints reaching the lower 70s. Heat index values will push into the low/mid 90s. Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s but heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.
In the lowest flight conditions as usual, flight weather could become mvfr with some convective gustiness.
An upper level ridge will continue to build across the Rockies allowing for dry weather to remain over north central Nebraska through Friday afternoon. A weak upper level trough will then pivot across southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska. This trough will bring some isolated rain and thunderstorm chances to northern Nebraska along the border. A strong upper level trough will develop across the Rockies early on Saturday. As this trough moves across the northern Rockies and into the High Plains by Saturday evening, storms will develop across northern Nebraska into South Dakota. However, any slight deviation in the trough, north or south, will result in significant changes to storm development.
A southwest flow pattern will develop over the Northern Rockies today allowing for warmer temperatures, with most valleys reaching the low to mid 80s this afternoon. In these locations, storms could be more widespread, as further lifting will be present with an approaching surface cold front from the west. A much cooler and wetter pattern will move into the Northern Rockies behind the exiting trough this weekend, as a North Pacific low pressure system moves in.
Upper level ridging over the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains is expected to build northeastward through the next few days. The resulting increase in warm mid level temperatures will make it more difficult for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to fire up across western Kansas or even approach the region from the higher terrain along the eastern slopes.
Tonight Through Saturday Latest satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area this afternoon, with latest surface obs reporting temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 70s across northern and western Arkansas, to upper 80s across eastern and southeastern Arkansas. The aforementioned trough, which was the main instigator for the convection today, will continue pushing east tonight. As this feature moves away from the state, expect high pressure to build into the region. This will help to diminish chances for widespread rainfall, however weak perturbations along the periphery of the high are likely.
308 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Upper level trough and cold front pushing through the upper Midwest with a line of broken tstms from western WI to western IA. Today: Scattered thunderstorms especially this morning ahead of the cold front that will push across the cwa. Tonight: In the wake of the cold front gradually lowering dewpoints and light n to ne winds will bring a more comfortable night. This weekend: Sprawling high pressure in Ontario and into the Great Lakes will bring dry weather and comfortable humidity.