Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 This morning at 08Z a mid level trough axis was located over the Ohio Valley while another wave was moving southward into northeastern Nebraska and northwest Iowa. CAMS are divided with isolated showers or storms in far eastern Kansas and with forcing mainly to the east and some dry air advection as high pressure moves south will keep the forecast dry.
An broad upper trough will continue from the upper midwest all the way to the northern Gulf through the near term. As the trough slowly moves east the dry airmass over the area will be pushed east as deeper moisture moves in. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will sag southward toward the area, likely stalling across northwest portions of the area on Sunday. The combination of the upper trough, surface front and increasing deep layer moisture will lead to an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain generally north and west of I-65 where the greatest deep layer moisture and instability will exist. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
It is a quiet and cooler night across the region, only made some adjustments to temps where necessary.
A weak cold front has slowly progressed into Central AL overnight and will continue to push southeastward through the region today. Ultimately, it'll likely be an atmospheric dynamics match between the upward motion of the trough axis/frontal boundary and the subsidence associated with Isaias, which will result in our limited afternoon convective coverage (20-30%).
Low pressure in place over northeast Indiana will quickly depart to the northeast this morning.
426 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Mid-latitude trough will deepen over the eastern U.
A weak cold front moving southeast through AR during the day will bring ISOL -TSRA to mainly the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon.
335 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 A weak cold front was found pushing into the northwest portions of the CWA early this morning. The cold front will move through the CWA today and tonight bringing the chance for some scattered showers and isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.
Some afternoon clouds are possible today, especially in the fringes of an upper trough across eastern SD and west central MN with northwest flow aloft.
325 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The cold front that brought scattered showers and storms to the are yesterday continues its slow southeastward movement and slicing through south central KS and extending northeast toward northeast KS. Several waves are progged to continue to move through the weak upper ridge toward the end of the week which supports rather unsettled conditions and an increased risk of seeing storms, perhaps severe, particularly late week.
Latest HREF shows this trough dropping into Missouri and Illinois later today. As it does, it will bring a cold front currently over southeast Iowa and northwest Missouri moving southeast across the area during the afternoon and evening. With the increase in ascent associated with the trough and warm air advection ahead of the front, expect showers to increase in coverage across the area this morning, with the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across central and northeast Missouri where instability will be greatest along the front.
An upstream trough and associated cold front will move little this period while TS Isaias moves north along the Florida east coast. PWATs remain on the low side with good subsidence in the mid levels will lead to below average rain chances today. Rain chances of 20-30% are reasonable with the higher end chances in the Big Bend area. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s this afternoon and feel like the lower 100s coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1042 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Forecast concerns include the possibility of thunderstorms across the eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening and a possibility of showers and thunderstorms transitioning further to the south and west over the next couple of days as a cold front pushes deeper into the central High Plains region. The high pressure area aloft over the southwest U.
A cold front is still located in middle Tennessee late this evening, but it will move east into the forecast area overnight and should be on the Carolina side of the Appalachians during the day tomorrow.
While convective temperatures will be approached once again today some warmer air aloft should keep the atmosphere capped for much of the afternoon. This evening, as the weak impulse approaches the area, convection should develop once again along the higher terrain of CO and NM and potentially along the aforementioned front to our north. /WCI The work week will begin with an amplified upper level high pressure ridge over the southern Rockies and northwest flow aloft over the southern plains.
311 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows an area of low pressure centered over northwestern OH, with a trailing cold front draped across east- central KY. Aloft, broad troughing will remain in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the upper trough axis located to our west, extending through the MS Valley. May see some isolated to scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon as subtle waves of energy move through the upper trough. Tonight, temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 60s under partly clear skies. Full-latitude upper trof over the eastern CONUS will dominate through the week.
1144 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough from the Hudson Bay extending south through the lower MS river valley. An upper ridge was centered over southern CA/AZ with another upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, low pressure was over northern KY with ridging along the lee of the central Rockies. For Sunday a cooler and dryer airmass is expected to move in as high pressure builds south through the plains.
314 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure will move into the area today with generally mostly clear skies and mild temperatures for early August. Look for a cool night tonight with lows in the lower to middle 50s, or 12 to 14 degrees below normal. The week ahead starts dry and mild, then remains mild through the midweek but wet at times, before ending somewhat warmer and more humid.
An amplified mid/upper level trough axis will be situated across the lower Ohio Valley through the short term period.
As the area is behind a front to he south and high pressure is just to the north, an lack of downslope - today's highs are again going to be limited to the low to mid 80s in most area; perhaps a few degrees warmer in the red hills region.
Today, 850mb temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than on Saturday. Tonight, an upper ridge will extend over the Great Basin as northwest flow continues across our region.
1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The slow-moving closed low which brought us rain for the past couple of days is slowly shifting eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Further north, another short wave centered over the Hudson Bay is digging southeast into the Upper Midwest, and these two systems will come into phase over the next 24 hours, generating one long wave trough over North America extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, ridges of high pressure will strengthen to the west and east of the trough. This high amplitude blocky pattern will be with us for much of the week. Noticing a few showers back over central Missouri as well which are likely being generated by instability where there are breaks in the overcast and helped out by the vortmax rotating around the low.
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Surface observations and satellite imagery show a cold front pushing south across the Central Plains this afternoon. Despite cooler temps aloft, lapse rates are on the weaker side and, combined with lower dewpoints, may only support modest destabilization ahead of the front (1000-1500 MLCAPE). Initially, convection should be confined to the High Plains, with stable/drier air remaining over central/eastern KS.
1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Forecast on track with skies clearing and temps falling into the low 60s already in a few spots. Will see winds decrease also with lows expected to fall into the low to mid 50s. The cold front in the Upper Midwest currently extends from Lake Superior southeast across MN and through Sioux Falls.
There is a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Monday as a cold front tracks across the area.
This morning at 08Z a mid level trough axis was located over the Ohio Valley while another wave was moving southward into northeastern Nebraska and northwest Iowa. CAMS are divided with isolated showers or storms in far eastern Kansas and with forcing mainly to the east and some dry air advection as high pressure moves south will keep the forecast dry.
An approaching upper low moving toward the Pacific Northwest could weaken the marine inversion a little more today leading to better afternoon mixing and a little more sunshine for coastal areas, but otherwise the marine stratus is expected to persist for at least the next several days.
On temps, parts of the Hill Country might have received enough rainfall to modify Max T potential as the upper ridge tries to build back over TX.
The low-level circulation continues drifting toward the South Florida coast and will take a more northward trajectory today. Ample gradient winds in the low levels could become manifested at the surface in localized wet microbursts via convective momentum transport. Temperatures will rebound into the lower 90s in many areas owing to increasing insolation.
/issued 311 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ Upper ridge centered along the AZ/Mexico border this morning will shift east the next few days becoming centered over NM and TX by midweek. Even looking out 240 hrs shows the ridge in the same location. perhaps a degree warmer. As a result MET guidance much cooler Monday.
950 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure slowly builds in today from the west. Low pressure to the east will cause the Northland to be pinched in a pressure gradient that will keep winds elevated above normal speeds today and out of the north. Skies should be mostly sunny across Minnesota, but due to flow off of Lake Superior and the lingering low pressure system to the east - Wisconsin should have a fairly cloudy day with some potential for lingering shower activity with light QPF amounts (<0. Monday should be another cool, but dry day under high pressure.
626 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure will move into the area today with generally mostly clear skies and mild temperatures for early August. Look for a cool night tonight with lows in the lower to middle 50s, or 12 to 14 degrees below normal. The week ahead starts dry and mild, then remains mild through the midweek but wet at times, before ending somewhat warmer and more humid.
644 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The main challenge in the short term is determining where the low stratus will set up today, and how quickly it will dissipate. Meanwhile, the chance for showers continues to wane as high pressure and subsidence looks to outweigh any destabilization that takes place and should keep the clouds shallow as opposed to deeper convection and showers. High pressure will remain in place for the first half of the week, and them we'll see southerly winds develop by mid week. This will bring warmer and more humid air back across the region along with small chances for showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of the week.
647 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure slowly builds in today from the west. Low pressure to the east will cause the Northland to be pinched in a pressure gradient that will keep winds elevated above normal speeds today and out of the north. Skies should be mostly sunny across Minnesota, but due to flow off of Lake Superior and the lingering low pressure system to the east - Wisconsin should have a fairly cloudy day with some potential for lingering shower activity with light QPF amounts (<0. Monday should be another cool, but dry day under high pressure.
Low pressure in place over northeast Indiana will quickly depart to the northeast this morning. This upper level low will slowly linger across Indiana through Monday. A cold front is expected to push across the state on Monday afternoon and night.
Latest HREF shows this trough dropping into Missouri and Illinois later today. As it does, it will bring a cold front currently over southeast Iowa and northwest Missouri moving southeast across the area during the afternoon and evening. With the increase in ascent associated with the trough and warm air advection ahead of the front, expect showers to increase in coverage across the area this morning, with the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across central and northeast Missouri where instability will be greatest along the front. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today, particularly over south central Illinois. Highs on Monday will be cooler behind the cold front that will move through the area later today and this evening.
The two factors that brought the rains was a weak surface boundary that moved in from the northwest and a upper level trof that once storms started supported this activity. across the lakes region in southeast Texas and into central Louisiana they are currently hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 which is about five to eight degrees cooler/drier than yesterday. Tomorrow will see more of the same but it will be a bit warmer and drier.
Surface analysis at 04z shows an additional sfc boundary over far southern MN with weak low pressure near Green Bay and another south in central Illinois. Another short wave trough is associated with the northern stream low and should begin to drop south today across Iowa. Farther west, Canadian high pressure is expanding over the Northern Plains and Rockies. Today will see a fair amount of cloud cover and possible showers as the trough and wave push south over the region this afternoon.
628 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The cold front that brought scattered showers and storms to the are yesterday continues its slow southeastward movement and slicing through south central KS and extending northeast toward northeast KS. Several waves are progged to continue to move through the weak upper ridge toward the end of the week which supports rather unsettled conditions and an increased risk of seeing storms, perhaps severe, particularly late week. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Upper trough extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid/lower Mississippi Valley.
/Issued 426 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ Mid-latitude trough will deepen over the eastern U.
528 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Across the Tri State region this morning, the area is looking at high pressure nosing southward into the Central Plains region w/ a stalled frontal boundary extending from S/SW Kansas up into central and eastern portions of Colorado.
Some afternoon clouds are possible today, especially in the fringes of an upper trough across eastern SD and west central MN with northwest flow aloft. Will see a transition early in the period with low level flow becoming southeasterly as Canadian high pressure moves east.
Dry weather is expected today as northerly flow aloft and northeasterly flow at the surface continue ushering in cooler, drier air. H5 ridging is building to our west today, serving to further dry the air mass as we head into Monday. This ridge will flatten later during the afternoon Monday, with upper flow becoming a bit more westerly. Monday's highs will only reach the lower to middle 70s for much of the area, with middle to upper 70s further west.
355 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Today, expecting one more day of completely dry and warm weather as sky cover alternates between clear and sunny, and partly cloudy with mid- to high-level clouds moving up and over the crest of the ridge of high pressure currently in control over the region. Some light rain showers will signal the beginning of this change, over the higher elevations of central Montana.
Upper level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this morning depicts a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes south into the southern plains. The atmosphere will continue to heat up today with increasing moisture in the lower levels. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 90 69 88 / 10 30 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 87 67 85 / 10 40 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 70 87 67 84 / 10 30 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 82 64 81 / 40 50 50 30 40.
An amplified mid/upper level trough axis will be situated across the lower Ohio Valley through the short term period. The higher PoPs will slowly migrate eastward through Monday afternoon.
A weak cold front will move across the forecast area today bringing ISOL to SCT -TSRA mainly north of a line from KADF-KPBF. Today Through Monday Night Upper troughing to remain over much of the eastern half of the US through the period with the flow aloft over AR transitioning from to westerly to northwesterly as the trough moves very slowly eastward. For today, a weak cold front will sweep eastward across the state through the base of the upper trough with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east mainly over the northern two-thirds of the forecast area.
Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today, expecting one more day of completely dry and warm weather as sky cover alternates between clear and sunny, and partly cloudy with mid- to high-level clouds moving up and over the crest of the ridge of high pressure currently in control over the region. Some light rain showers will signal the beginning of this change, over the higher elevations of central Montana.
Will not mention in the TAFs at this time due to the low probability. Weakly unsettled NW flow aloft will dampen Monday night ahead of rising heights downstream of an upper high occupying the Upper Trans- Pecos.
A weak cold front was found pushing into the northwest portions of the CWA early this morning. The cold front will move through the CWA today and tonight bringing the chance for some scattered showers and isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s in the northwest third of the CWA with upper 70s and low 80s elsewhere. Have kept a chance of showers going on Monday albeit trending lower on PoPs, as have noted a drying trend in most of the deterministic models due to a faster progression of the mid/upper level trough. I think it's quite possible that most of the area stays dry, with any shower chances favored over northwest and west central Illinois during the PM within reservoir of better mid level instability in vicinity of the upper trough axis.
951 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak area of high pressure over the area is sandwiched between two weak frontal boundaries. While temps will still climb in the the mid/upper 80s today, dew points will only climb in to the low to mid 60s. Dry conditions should continue tonight as weak high pressure moves across the region. Stayed close to the blends, that kept them on the warmer side in the upper 80s to around 90.
Across the Tri State region this morning, the area is looking at high pressure nosing southward into the Central Plains region w/ a stalled frontal boundary extending from S/SW Kansas up into central and eastern portions of Colorado.
High pressure over the southwest United States will continue to provide dry conditions, sending daytime temperatures at or above the 100 degree mark for at least one more day, perhaps breaking some temperature records. An area of low pressure is beginning to move southward from the Aleutian Island chain. But for one more day, the excessive heat will continue as high pressure enveloping much of the Great Basin will remain centered over the northern Baja peninsula and Arizona. The high amplitude ridge axis is striking through Arizona and Utah and will not budge very much today. By Monday, a short wave trough produced by the Aleutian low feature will pass north of the state, dampening the ridge and shifting the ridge axis further east towards the 4-corners area.
A weak cold front has slowly progressed into Central AL overnight and will continue to push southeastward through the region today. Ultimately, it'll likely be an atmospheric dynamics match between the upward motion of the trough axis/frontal boundary and the subsidence associated with Isaias, which will result in our limited afternoon convective coverage (20-30%). The upper level trough doesn't seem to be in any hurry to push eastward whatsoever; and one of the outermost convergent bands off of Isaias is expected to push westward through GA on Monday. This could allow for some isolated shower/storms mainly east of I-65 Monday afternoon, but a lot of model guidance keeps this well over in Georgia as the trough axis slowly moves into Central AL; therefore, I'll keep PoPs limited to 15-20%.
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 After a start with temperatures in the mid 50s, continued cooler temperatures with isolated showers are what's in store for today. Wind direction will shift towards an east/northeasterly direction overnight, with temperatures dropping down into the lower 50s.
525 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 North-northwest flow aloft prevailed over the CWA with a upper ridge from the Northern Rockies to the Desert Southwest and a upper trough from the Western Great Lakes to the TX Gulf Coast. A weak disturbance moving southeast across the high plains was generating isolated convection over the NE Panhandle. Similar to recent days, convection will initiate over the higher terrain and intensify while moving southeast onto the high plains. Convective initiation will occur over the higher terrain and move southeast. Upper ridge rebuilds from the Four Corners to the Northern Rockies mid-week, then slowly translates east into the Great Plains by the end of the week.
326 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 North-northwest flow aloft prevailed over the CWA with a upper ridge from the Northern Rockies to the Desert Southwest and a upper trough from the Western Great Lakes to the TX Gulf Coast. A weak disturbance moving southeast across the high plains was generating isolated convection over the NE Panhandle. Similar to recent days, convection will initiate over the higher terrain and intensify while moving southeast onto the high plains. Convective initiation will occur over the higher terrain and move southeast. Upper ridge rebuilds from the Four Corners to the Northern Rockies mid-week, then slowly translates east into the Great Plains by the end of the week.
440 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from the lee of the northern Rockies through southern portions of the central Plains. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis still in place across the northern Rockies to the Great Basin region. Pleasantly mild and mainly dry weather will continue today and through much of Monday as ridge remains west of the area and gradually weakens on Monday. Ridge weakens later on Monday as a trough over southwest Canada slides east-southeast across the international border and into the northern Plains late Monday into midweek. South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front will bring increasing moisture and moderate instability.
While convective temperatures will be approached once again today some warmer air aloft should keep the atmosphere capped for much of the afternoon. This evening, as the weak impulse approaches the area, convection should develop once again along the higher terrain of CO and NM and potentially along the aforementioned front to our north. /WCI The work week will begin with an amplified upper level high pressure ridge over the southern Rockies and northwest flow aloft over the southern plains. Slightly cooler air following the Sunday night thunderstorms should extend across our area to start the day Monday and will keep highs on Monday somewhere close to normal for early August.