Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As an upper level high pressure located over North Texas builds into South Texas today, PWATs are expected to drop from 1. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected today with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s near the coast and mid to upper 90s across the Brush Country. With mostly clear to clear skies tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s across portions of the Brush Country and range from the lower to upper 70s across the rest of the CWA. With drier air expected to continue Thursday and less cloud cover compared to today, temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than today.
Some of the high resolution models hold onto a smattering of clouds and even light virga showers into this evening. Dew points under the high center currently are in the low 30s and even a few upper 20s, but there is still enough uncertainty in clearing to keep lows in the mid 30s, with around 40 in portions of the southern Red River Valley and west central MN. Thursday will see a bit of a break in precip chances as upper ridging briefly moves into the Red River Valley. Some 30s will be possible Thursday night in our far eastern counties, but clouds and precipitation chances will be on the increase as the next upper low approaches western ND.
1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Temperatures are running about a degree or two warmer than 24 hours ago.
135 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Upper Midwest moving into the Great Lakes, with upper ridge extending into the Northern Rockies and upper low over Northern CA/OR. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Dakotas with early afternoon temps in the 50s to lower 60s. Pac NW low will lift into the Northern Rockies on Thursday, with lee trof advancing into eastern MT/WY. A band of showers/storms is likely to lift northeast across the area Thursday into Thursday night as large scale forcing associated with upper trof crosses.
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures arrive today with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Wednesday night. As of 07Z, the cold front was just starting to move into northwestern MO. Temperatures will still warm into the 90s in our far southern zones by this afternoon, but for areas from about I-70 northward cooler temperatures are expected with a muted and earlier diurnal trend.
227 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 The region sits on the northeast corner of a 594+ dm 500mb ridge amid nearly full sun, with just a few cumulus clouds bubbling in the heat. Relief is not far away however as a surface cold front, currently approaching the St. Due to several days of subsidence under the ridge lower level moisture profiles look quite dry and it looks like significant precip will be pretty hard to come by with this frontal passage.
Northwest winds this afternoon will continue to be quite breezy, but will relax overnight as the low pressure system over the Hudson bay moves away and cool canadian high pressure slides into the forecast area tonight. High temperatures tomorrow be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with light northerly winds, becoming southeasterly from west to east as the high pressure moves over the area. Lows will fall into the 40s again for most, but parts of west central Wisconsin will fall into the 30s with very light winds under the high, and some areas of frost may be possible, but the clouds increasing from the west may nix this possibility.
1150 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Current satellite imagery shows clear skies across the forecast area as the high pressure strengthens over the Appalachians and the ArkLaTex region. (Today through Thursday) Weakening high pressure ridge axis along the Appalachian will result in mostly dry conditions for the short term. The developing cold front moves south out of the Great lakes states today and moves into N GA Thu afternoon. High temperatures Today and Tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 90s, which is about 7-12 degrees above average.
(This evening through Thursday) Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper high that has been hanging out near our area still centered to our southwest, with a trough over the north-central CONUS and low entering the western CONUS. Though, subsidence from the upper high overhead, inversions within the thermal profile as noted by hi-res guidance, PWAT values below the 50th percentile and a dry sub-cloud layer will help to keep precipitation chances near zero for this afternoon. The much anticipated cold front is currently (2 PM) along a line from the OK Panhandle to the north of Wichita, KS, to Hartford, KS.
Upper low over northern California will move into eastern Oregon tonight before arriving in western Montana on Thursday. A cold front will march through the area this evening, with cooler more stable air filtering into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day tomorrow, mainly across the high country.
1126 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Hot, humid air will be replaced by cool, drier air over the next 24 hours thanks to a cold front diving southeast across central IL today and tonight. Clouds and precip remain over parts of the area, but this will not affect temps for this afternoon since the cold front is still northwest of the area and will not be getting into the area this this afternoon. Currently, IL is in the warm sector of a low pressure system with the low centered over the IA/WI border. These lows are associated with a large upper trough that is currently centered over Manitoba. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the surface front and also behind the front in the vicinity of the low level boundary.
1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level high will shift almost directly over West Central Texas this afternoon.
146 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 A cold front moving from the northwest will bring the threat for strong thunderstorms today.
(Thru Tonight) An upper trough digging southeast over the Great Lakes/Midwest is forcing a cold front south down the Plains. Currently, the cold front stretches from northeast KS to far northeast NM.
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (The rest of today ) Approaching cold front viewable on visible satellite image this morning across central KS in the form of some patchy lower clouds. Latest CAMs showing a weak signal for some showers ahead and along the front late this afternoon into early evening but prospects of any meaningful activity remains too low to mention given subsidence associated with intense mid level ridge.
231 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 The long anticipated cold front has finally begun its push through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and is currently draped from roughly the Lake of the Ozarks through Springfield, IL. Afternoon temperatures for areas along and north of the front have been notably cooler than the last several days, while areas to the south have again seen abnormally warm temperatures, well into the 90s. This will obviously bring much cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northerly post-frontal winds. This will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the last few days and about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
151 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Aviation - Showers and storms developing through midday - The approaching strong cold front will trigger development of scattered showers and convection through the morning.
Surface observations currently show a prominent cold front south of I-35 in KS and between I-70 and I-44 through MO. 50" on the high end. Eastern KS, far western MO, and areas south of I-70 will have the best odds to see the higher end of these rain estimates.
Calm and dry weather conditions are anticipated today where high temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across most of the forecast area, 8 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of year. A trough amplifies over the Great Lakes Region, helping to push a front through the forecast area tomorrow.
Much cooler on Thursday with lingerings showers and clouds.
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening in association with a cold front.
The region sits on the northeast corner of a 594+ dm 500mb ridge amid nearly full sun, with just a few cumulus clouds bubbling in the heat. Relief is not far away however as a surface cold front, currently approaching the St. Due to several days of subsidence under the ridge lower level moisture profiles look quite dry and it looks like significant precip will be pretty hard to come by with this frontal passage.
701 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 The long anticipated cold front has finally begun its push through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and is currently draped from roughly the Lake of the Ozarks through Springfield, IL. Afternoon temperatures for areas along and north of the front have been notably cooler than the last several days, while areas to the south have again seen abnormally warm temperatures, well into the 90s. This will obviously bring much cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northerly post-frontal winds. This will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the last few days and about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion (This evening through Thursday night) Not a lot of change in thinking for the short term forecast as we remain in a high pressure and ridging pattern through the period. We reached the low to mid 90s in the majority of the CWA today.
947 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening in association with a cold front.
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening in association with a cold front.
Onshore flow resumes tonight and Thursday for cooler conditions and areas of night and morning clouds.
The cold front is now working southward through southern MI and is not expected to produce any additional storms. Big shift in the longwave pattern as a deep 500mb upper low, below 540 dam, sets up just east of Hudson Bay with southern extension reaching the Great Lakes.
542 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Upper Midwest moving into the Great Lakes, with upper ridge extending into the Northern Rockies and upper low over Northern CA/OR. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Dakotas with early afternoon temps in the 50s to lower 60s. Pac NW low will lift into the Northern Rockies on Thursday, with lee trof advancing into eastern MT/WY. A band of showers/storms is likely to lift northeast across the area Thursday into Thursday night as large scale forcing associated with upper trof crosses.
Cold front is plowing through the panhandle at a rate exceeding the most agressive guidance. (This evening through Thursday) A dome of high pressure aloft continues to result in warm and relatively humid conditions across the forecast area. That front is expected to stall as it loses impetus as the main upper trough driving it southward is well to the northeast and as the front undercuts the strong upper level ridge.
441 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: A dominating upper ridge extending through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through tomorrow. Meanwhile, on the poleward side of the ridge, a northern stream trough will be diving through the Great Lakes region and will send an attendant surface cold front through the Midwest and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 90s across much of the area with a few readings in the low 100s possible across the Delta. Temps will be close to normal across the region, with lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Dry and warmer weather conditions are forecast for the latter half of the week into the weekend. Strengthening westerly flow will likely push storms off to the east quickly late this afternoon and early this evening as the low center tracks to the NE Thus, expect showers and storms to come to an end quickly early this evening while large scale subsidence develops over the area.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms were present across the forecast area as an upper low over northern CA/southern OR slowly shifts northeast. A warming trend begins tomorrow as an upper ridge nudges east toward the PacNW coastline. However we will not be completely under the influence of the ridge tomorrow.
719 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Lingering showers will diminish this evening, as dry air moves in behind a cold front.
824 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Showers and storms are likely overnight along and ahead of an advancing cold front. As this forcing for ascent spreads ewd across the Upper OH Valley, convective coverage may increase overnight in two waves: first as a cluster of storms in the 0100-0600 UTC timeframe, and second late tonight as less-intense showers and storms as the cold front currently crossing MI advances sewd. Radiational cooling will be optimized Thu night as wind slackens and sky clears, leading to overnight minima some 10F below seasonal normal, and into the 30s in the ridges.
The area of low pressure producing these showers will continue to lift northeast tonight, with wraparound moisture expected into Thursday evening. Drier conditions return late Thursday, and continue into the into the weekend with cooler temperatures.
/22/ Tonight and tomorrow: A dominating upper ridge extending through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through tomorrow. Meanwhile, on the poleward side of the ridge, a northern stream trough will be diving through the Great Lakes region and will send an attendant surface cold front through the Midwest and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 90s across much of the area with a few readings in the low 100s possible across the Delta. Temps will be close to normal across the region, with lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
On the large scale, deep layer mean anticyclones remained anchored over the southern Plans and over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico. That means 10% of the waves in that sea state will be 37 feet, 1% will be around 48 feet, and the highest ones will be nearly 58 feet! This area is experiencing Force 9 on the Beaufort Scale ("Sea begins to roll, dense streaks of foam, spray may reduce visibility"). One round of showers and storms traversed the upper Keys a few hours ago, and another round is approaching portions of the lower and middle Keys at present.
727 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 After another record setting day of heat across Middle Tennessee with Nashville hitting a toasty 100 degrees, temperatures have cooled down somewhat but are still quite warm at this hour ranging from the low 70s on the Plateau to the low 90s in our northwest counties. However, the long heralded Autumn cold front is currently approaching STL and is still on track to push through the midstate Thursday morning, reaching Stewart County around 10-11Z and exiting Grundy County by 17-18Z per latest NAM and HRRR models. A cold front will drop through the area after 3 am in the northwest and clearing the southern counties by late morning on Thursday.
/61/ Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) Following another fairly muggy night tonight with patchy fog developing along the major rivers and lakes, we'll finally begin to get some heat relief on Thursday in the form of a strong cold front. The front will begin to move into northern Alabama by the mid morning hours on Thursday as the upper trough axis swings southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Breezy northerly winds can be expected behind the front as a drier, cooler continental airmass filters southward through the evening hours.
632 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (Thru Tonight) An upper trough digging southeast over the Great Lakes/Midwest is forcing a cold front south down the Plains. Currently, the cold front stretches from northeast KS to far northeast NM.
705 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: A dominating upper ridge extending through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through tomorrow. Meanwhile, on the poleward side of the ridge, a northern stream trough will be diving through the Great Lakes region and will send an attendant surface cold front through the Midwest and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 90s across much of the area with a few readings in the low 100s possible across the Delta. Temps will be close to normal across the region, with lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
620 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) A mid to upper level ridge will remain centered over Texas through the short term, leading to mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. With clear skies tonight and tomorrow night, temps will cool down efficiently with lows reaching the low 70s outside of the Houston- metro area and mid to upper 70s across Houston and along the coast.
The wind shift associated with a cold front has moved almost completely through the area this afternoon. These showers and storms should last through the evening, the rest of the period will be controlled by high pressure moving into the area from Canada. Discussion: High pressure moves into the area through the period as cooler and drier air is expected across the area. Main forecast concern are the lows and highs tomorrow, clouds tonight should keep the area cooler than the last few days.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front is progressing south as expected this evening, and at 930 PM was roughly along a Grove to Ralston line in NE OK.
With the primary upper trough not moving through the Plains until tomorrow, and some model signal for lift with the mid-level moisture and some even showing some QPF, have also kept low POPs in the north into Thursday. (This evening through Thursday) Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper high that has been hanging out near our area still centered to our southwest, with a trough over the north-central CONUS and low entering the western CONUS. Though, subsidence from the upper high overhead, inversions within the thermal profile as noted by hi-res guidance, PWAT values below the 50th percentile and a dry sub-cloud layer will help to keep precipitation chances near zero for this afternoon. The much anticipated cold front is currently (2 PM) along a line from the OK Panhandle to the north of Wichita, KS, to Hartford, KS.
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (This evening through Thursday night) Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a slow- moving cold front across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. The cold front will continue to move slowly south this evening and should be south of the Texas Panhandle late tonight.
Thursday and Friday Showers continued to sink south of the forecast area overnight, as high pressure and drier air pushed into the Missouri River valley. A low pressure system will move across Montana and into the Dakotas, with an associated warm front approaching the forecast area Thursday night. Cooler air will remain over the region today and Friday. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s, with temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s by Friday morning.
This feature is forecast to return tomorrow night, keeping the boundary layer sufficiently mixed for mins continuing above normal, except maybe a degree cooler than this morning as per NBM. Otherwise, WV imagery shows the ridge centered directly over central Texas. A trough traversing the upper CONUS over the next 24 hours will flatten the ridge, but this will have little appreciable effect on afternoon highs.
Overall, expect a wet and damp day with max temperatures noticeably cooler today, with temperatures in central KS struggling to climb above 60 degrees. As it moves east, 850h theta-e advection will increase again across the High Plains, for another chance of showers and some embedded storms.
307 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today across the area with rain mainly south of a Kansas City to Sedalia line. - Additional rain chances move into the area tonight through Friday with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Further south, winds become southerly behind a warm front and that will allow our southern zones warm into the lower 70s.
High pressure traverses in by tonight, dominating through tomorrow. However, the pattern will remain progressive, with the next upper trough and attendant low crossing Manitoba.
1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 After another record setting day of heat across Middle Tennessee with Nashville hitting a toasty 100 degrees, temperatures have cooled down somewhat but are still quite warm at this hour ranging from the low 70s on the Plateau to the low 90s in our northwest counties. However, the long heralded Autumn cold front is currently approaching STL and is still on track to push through the midstate Thursday morning, reaching Stewart County around 10-11Z and exiting Grundy County by 17-18Z per latest NAM and HRRR models. A cold front will drop through the area after 3 am in the northwest and clearing the southern counties by late morning on Thursday.
(Today through Friday) As depicted by KOHX radar during these early morning hours, surface cold front has pushed into northwest portions of mid state region. Surface cold front will continue progressing southeastward as remainder of early morning hours progress. As apex of above mentioned surface ridging builds southeastward into central Great Lakes Region by shortly after sunrise on Friday, with its broad influences being felt as far south as the deep south, lows tonight will be quite seasonably cool.
The cold front is now working southward through southern MI and is not expected to produce any additional storms. Big shift in the longwave pattern as a deep 500mb upper low, below 540 dam, sets up just east of Hudson Bay with southern extension reaching the Great Lakes. Notable thermal trough will be surging southward tonight with 850mb temperatures falling to low single digits by 12Z Thursday morning and around 0C by 00Z Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will bottom out into the upper 30s for most of the area as the high pressure centers itself over lower MI. The jet largely stays to our south through much of the coming week keeping us in the cooler airmass.
236 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over eastern OR, slowly moving eastward. Upper low the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper low will move into central MT as low pressure develops in response over north-central WY. Left exit region of 110kt jet streak ahead of upper low will promote a northeast-moving band of 800-600mb theta-e advection resulting in broken area of showers/isolated TS this morning/early afternoon hours.
Main concern with the forecast for today is where the low clouds will hang during the day and where we will see some clearing as this will affect the high temperatures. CAM models are all showing the low clouds should hang in place all day for most of southwest Kansas with the exception of the Oklahoma border counties. All global models EC/GFS and Canadian flatten out the large southern Plains subtropical high pressure by the end of the week with northwest flow aloft redeveloping.
High pressure builds across the region into the weekend with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
Temperatures will be much cooler. Radiational cooling will be optimized tonight as wind slackens and sky clears, leading to overnight minima some 10F below seasonal normal, and into the 30s in the ridges. Friday will be defined by clear and cool conditions amid high pressure.