Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thus today's forecast highs are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday (mid to upper 50s).
Zooming in to the Pacific Northwest, long wave ridging will persist initially; it will be flat enough to allow high level moisture to move over it, as is happening now. Short waves moving over the ridge will flatten it, and zonal flow aloft will develop midweek. This pattern will persist until this weekend, when the ridge will rebuild.
Key Points: - Cooler, yet above average temps persist through the work week. Added scattered sprinkles for the day given the lower stratus observed upstream.
Latest surface analysis places a high pressure system along the Gulf Coast, with an area of low pressure over Lake Michigan and another one over the Texas Panhandle. Benign weather will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the workweek. Dominant upper level northwest flow will help push a dry cold front through the Mid-South this afternoon. Expect highs to climb 5 to 10 degrees above normal with readings in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure is expected to remain in place across the region into this weekend, with little change in day to day weather expected.
Temperatures along the island chain are holding in the mid 60s, with steady northerly breezes off the Bay and Gulf side water temps in the lower to mid 70s preventing temps onshore from dropping any lower. Surface analysis depicts a weak high pressure ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic states along the northern Gulf Coast to South Texas.
354 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Today and Tonight: Dry through the period and after a colder than normal start, temperatures will top out above normal this afternoon and bottom out warmer than normal Wednesday morning. /22/ By Wednesday morning a trough will cross the region but will have little impact on our weather pattern.
603 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 High pressure will nose into the Ohio Valley today leading to dry conditions through tonight. High pressure builds in from the south overnight. Fairly clear skies and calming winds early overnight under the high will allow temperatures to quickly drop into the 30s.
Jet support for snow showers this morning is propagating northeastward, so PoPs are maintained up in the I-80 corridor/PA ridges for the next several hours. Otherwise, temperature will be near freezing overnight with the coldest temperature south of Pittsburgh where clearing is likely.
This aided in keep temperatures warmer. Surface temps are expected to be above freezing across the area. There is a small chance that when we transition from snow to rain aloft, that surface temps could evap cool to freezing or just below.
930 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 High pressure will nose into the Ohio Valley today leading to dry conditions through tonight. Mid and high cloud cover is generally decreasing as high pressure pushes in from the southwest, with more clouds lingering across the southern half of the FA according to satellite imagery. Winds ahead of the high may gust around 20 knots this afternoon. High pressure builds in from the south overnight. Fairly clear skies and calming winds early overnight under the high will allow temperatures to quickly drop into the 30s.
The trough axis is progged to be east of the Continental Divide by sunrise and subsidence in its wake will result in clearing skies across the north. A push of moderately cooler air across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah will result in reduced highs this afternoon, though readings will still run well above normal. High pressure will remain centered over the Great Basin at the midweek point with weak northwesterly flow persisting aloft across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Highs in the mid 60s near the Kansas border to the lower 70s across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas are forecast.
529 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across northern Oklahoma today before stalling. The airmass behind the front is still quite mild for late November, but it will knock down the high temperatures across northern Oklahoma compared to yesterday. Temperatures across southern Oklahoma and north Texas will be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday.
From Wed on, southwesterly flow in the lowest levels is expected to help boost surface temps modestly higher each day, to well above average levels, especially by Thu.
343 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 A weak trough crossing the area early this morning will bring cooler temperatures to the CWA today with highs in the 40s, to the mid 50s. An area of low pressure and mid level trough will cross the region late this afternoon through the overnight hours, bringing light rain, with a brief rain/snow mix possible in the far northeastern CWA. Warm air advection on the back side of the low pressure will likely cause temperatures to warm after midnight.
A weak upper level disturbance is expected to develop/move across the Southern Plains today, while another stronger upper system moves across the Northern Plains late this afternoon/evening, then over the Mississippi Valley/Midwest tonight, before merging with the weaker system to generate a trough that moves across the SERN CONUS Wednesday, while an upper cutoff low meanders over the Baja CA region.
A developing closed upper trough over Baja California will keep dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region, but upper level winds will bring some high clouds associated with the closed trough into the region. By tonight, the closed trough will start to retrograde a bit and high clouds will start to thin out. A cold front will try to move into the region from the northwest on Wednesday, but it will likely wash out in our extreme northwest zones as upper ridging builds into region. Should see sunny skies and above normal temps again with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s.
914 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 Dry and warmer today courtesy of high pressure. High pressure will gradually start to build into the region behind the departing wave, with dry conditions. Slightly warmer as compared to recent days with a southwesterly to westerly flow taking hold.
A ridge of high pressure will bring quiet and dry weather to all of the forecast area through the short term.
Light southwest to west winds will shift from a northerly direction 00-06Z with the arrival of a weak cold front. A weak cold front will move into the Texas Panhandle this morning, slowly move south and arrive in the Permian Basin this evening and tonight. In fact, high temps tomorrow will be similar to today and in some places may even be slightly warmer.
The absence of any large-scale forcing for ascent will keep much of the precipitation in the higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide in Glacier Park. Precipitation today will remain in liquid form except for the highest terrain. Strong winds will be enhanced by the terrain, so expect ridgetop winds across all mountain ranges of western Montana to reach 35 to 45 mph this afternoon, with even stronger gusts along the Continental Divide in Glacier Park and the Flathead Range.
Thereafter, generally clear skies with mainly some approaching cirrus will be the rule through the day, with light srly winds developing as high pressure moves east of the region.
While it will be cooler today temperatures will still be very mild, ranging from the mid 40s in southwest MN to the mid 50s along the Missouri River.
514 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 [Through 12Z Wednesday] High pressure will dominate the region today and that will lead to clear skies and light winds. High pressure centered across Alabama this morning will slide eastward and dominate the weather through the near term. Temperatures are near freezing this morning and expected to drop below freezing at many locations over the next few hours. As low level winds become more east to southeast overnight, lows tomorrow morning will be slightly warmer (although still cold) with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Forecast lows for tonight are generally on the cooler side of guidance.
217 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 Strong high pressure over the region continues to keep the storm track diverted to our north.
A slow moving cold front will drop out of Canada late on Wednesday, bringing colder air into the region.
326 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 It's a clear and cold morning across the Tennessee Valley as temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s as of 09z. High pressure will shift to the ESE of the area, allowing winds to veer to a south to southwesterly direction. The combination of a sunny, clear sky and southerly flow will make for a warmer day as highs will run about 10 degrees higher than yesterday -- in the low to mid 60s. A substantial warming trend will occur mid to late week as the aforementioned high pressure ridge amplifies over the Deep South.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Dry through the period and after a colder than normal start, temperatures will top out above normal this afternoon and bottom out warmer than normal Wednesday morning. /22/ By Wednesday morning a trough will cross the region but will have little impact on our weather pattern.
It's a clear and cold morning across the Tennessee Valley as temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s as of 09z. High pressure will shift to the ESE of the area, allowing winds to veer to a south to southwesterly direction. The combination of a sunny, clear sky and southerly flow will make for a warmer day as highs will run about 10 degrees higher than yesterday -- in the low to mid 60s. A substantial warming trend will occur mid to late week as the aforementioned high pressure ridge amplifies over the Deep South.
A low amplitude upper level ridge has moved over Texas and will remain over the state through the short term period. The low level flow has been light with a weak pressure gradient. The low level flow will become more southerly to southeasterly today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer especially across the southern part of the region. Patchy fog will spread farther north and west tonight/Wednesday morning with continued return of warmer, moister air. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be five to ten degrees warmer than today.
831 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 Very Fall-like weather conditions for Florida today as we continue under the effects of a high pressure to our north. Highs are forecast to climb to the lower-mid 70s under crisp blue skies.
338 AM MST Tue Nov 30 2021 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the end of the work week. Biggest weather concern the next few days will be the potential for overnight fog/freezing fog with stagnant airmass in place. Today looks a touch cooler than yesterday but as the ridge continues to build over the next few days, we'll likely see some slight increases each day in afternoon highs.
Mid to upper level dry NWLY flow continues as dry high pressure ridge stays over the area through the end of the week. Will gradually see moisture return as surface ridging slides east Wed allowing for a slight southerly component to the surface flow with a slight increase in dewpoints through the week.
A cold front will enter eastern New Mexico today, creating gusty winds from the north northeast.
Northwest flow aloft continues to provide a regime of stable, cool weather across the Deep South, and this will coincide with a slow warming trend today and tomorrow as low-level ridging slowly shifts to the east. Highs in the low to upper 60s are forecast, with mid 60s to lower 70s tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, modest increases in dewpoints are expected in areas north of I-20 today as southwesterly winds advect dewpoints in the 40s from the lower Mississippi River Valley.
A continued period of quiet weather is expected through the week with high pressure remaining in control. Dry conditions with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal can be expected. Persistent high pressure stretches from California to New Mexico this morning and will continue to be the main weather feature over the next several days bringing continued warm and dry conditions. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will continue to run around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. A few cirrus clouds are being observed this morning across southern Arizona in response to a weak closed low over the Baja.
515 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 A cold front will move through the TAF sites between late this morning and mid day. /Issued 251 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/ A positively tilted upper level short wave moving southeast through Colorado and eventually through the northern Panhandles this afternoon will help to drive a cold front through the area. Winds will get up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts behind the cold front, especially across the western Panhandles.
Storm track will remain well north of California with high pressure dominating the weather this week.
Weak low pressure was analyzed over southern Lake Michigan early this morning. Conditions are notably breezy in the lower levels ahead of a cool front draped through Illinois and Missouri. SW to W low-level flow is pumping warmer air into the region, and temperatures are significantly warmer than 24 hours ago. Upper 30s to mid 40s are common, with just a couple lingering spots in the east in the lower 30s. An approaching wave of low pressure will bring widespread mid-level clouds to the region early Wednesday. Flow aloft over our region will remain out of the northwest through the end of the week, but a strong ridge over the southern Plains will slowly nudge toward the region.
350 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 (Issued 350 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will move into the area today, bringing plenty of sunshine to southern Wisconsin. with model soundings right on the fence for rain/snow when the better chance of precip arrives late tonight due to near to above freezing temps in the lowest 2 kft. Either way, no accumulations are expected given the near/above freezing surface temps and likely mix with rain.
A high pressure located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will be extending eastward tonight. With that, winds will veer from the north to the east tonight into Wed as the high pressure moves towards the western Atlantic. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight but still dropping to the upper 40s for rural locations across the interior and lower 50s elsewhere. And a few degrees warmer too for Wed with highs in the mid-upper 70s.
This buckle is quickly moving to the southeast this afternoon, and the ridge will build right back across the region by tomorrow morning. Mostly highs in the low to mid- 50s and overnight lows in the mid-20s with increased wind in the wind prone areas can be expected and remain that way through the weekend.
121 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 A clipper system at the surface and a short wave trough will combine to bring some light rain to the region this evening. Upper ridging builds back in on Wednesday with a dry airmass and good westerly mixing winds at the sfc enhanced by a jet streak aloft. The period starts off with flat ridging over the western CONUS, but toward the weekend energy will start to dig out a trof over the central/eastern CONUS with mid-level ridging getting shifted to near or off the west coast.
Winds under this ridge will remain light (under 10 kt) from the west-northwest, and aside from a few high clouds mainly sunny skies are expected. This will result in a seasonably mild afternoon, with highs generally into the lower 50s. Early morning surface map indicated a clipper low over southern Lake Michigan with a cold front extending southwest and bisecting the CWA. Aloft, upper air data showed northwest flow firmly entrenched across the Midwest, between a ridge off the CA coast and a trof off the New England coast.
As this system passes overnight, upper-level ice introduction wanes and low-level moisture remains, introducing the possibility of freezing drizzle/rain according to some model guidance. With the stout surface warm air, anything widespread seems unlikely, and have kept limited amounts of freezing rain in forecast for now. How strong the west coast ridging, and thus troughing is remains a (the?) big question. Latest set of WPC cluster analysis continuing to paint a couple ways this could flesh out: 1) stronger/amplified upper level ridge to the west with deeper/stronger trough in the east and, 2) more flatten version of the ridge/trough setup, similar to what is expected through the better part of this week. Smaller subset (mostly GFS) would develop the ridge farther east, suggesting milder/drier conditions for the region.
High pressure will continue contributing to our dry, and warming weather today. An upper level trough will approach on Wednesday.
Otherwise, temperature will be near freezing overnight with the coldest temperature south of Pittsburgh where clearing is likely to remain.
RAH (Issued 350 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will move into the area today, bringing plenty of sunshine to southern Wisconsin. with model soundings right on the fence for rain/snow when the better chance of precip arrives late tonight due to near to above freezing temps in the lowest 2 kft. Either way, no accumulations are expected given the near/above freezing surface temps and likely mix with rain.
High pressure at the surface now centered east of the CWA, has resulted in southwest flow returning to the forecast area. This, coupled with flow aloft flattening a bit will yield warmer, but continued quiet, conditions across the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Dry through the period and after a colder than normal start, temperatures will top out above normal this afternoon and bottom out warmer than normal Wednesday morning. /22/ By Wednesday morning a trough will cross the region but will have little impact on our weather pattern.
1058 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 Composite satellite analysis reveals a longwave trough departing off the Eastern Seaboard, as a pretty strong cold front pushed through the Florida Keys yesterday. In its wake, a weak dome of high pressure continues to build across the Southeast, resulting in north to northeast flow across the entire CWA. From synopsis, gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes will slowly veer to northeast to east through Wednesday, as weak high pressure moves slowly eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. Gentle northeast breezes will prevail from Wednesday night into the weekend, as the weak high pressure drifts slowly southward across the Florida Peninsula.
/Issued 515 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/ A cold front will move through the TAF sites between late this morning and mid day. /Issued 251 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/ A positively tilted upper level short wave moving southeast through Colorado and eventually through the northern Panhandles this afternoon will help to drive a cold front through the area. Winds will get up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts behind the cold front, especially across the western Panhandles.
1229 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 High pressure tonight. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight. Some models suggest that the higher elevations could see snow mix in at times Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough pushes in from the west and raises chances for precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, for most of the area through Wednesday with minor QPF amounts expected.
VFR conditions persist for the forecast period with mainly virga due to the high based clouds remaining above 10kft.
In other words, a typical cold- season pattern when stuck under high pressure. As for later today, We're forecasting the low clouds and IFR to LIFR ceilings to continue inland with the low clouds lifting closer to the coast as a warm front approaches. We have high confidence in the low clouds lasting through the day inland as some higher clouds will be in the region. These higher clouds will limit surface heating and the potential dissipation of the lower clouds.
The main feature dictating the sensible weather for the Florida Keys is a weak, broad area of high pressure centered over the Southeast.
1050 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across northern Oklahoma today before stalling. The airmass behind the front is still quite mild for late November, but it will knock down the high temperatures across northern Oklahoma compared to yesterday. Temperatures across southern Oklahoma and north Texas will be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday.
Thermal profiles in model forecast soundings support all rain since the shallow radiation inversion should mix out as southerly flow and low- level warm advection strengthens during the morning, bringing temperatures above freezing before any precipitation starts. As the trough departs tomorrow afternoon, conditions should improve with rain shifting east of the area. Eastward building mean ridging and veered low-level trajectories will support fairly warm temperatures into tomorrow night.
206 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 High pressure tonight. High pressure builds in for the end of the work week. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight. Some models suggest that the higher elevations could see snow mix in at times Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough sweeps through the area to open up the forecast period.
Overall, very light QPF is expected less than a tenth of an inch, however will keep notable pops in the high chance range along and north of I-64. Wednesday brings another round of mild temperatures with highs in the low 50s north, to low 60s south.
At the surface, a warm front will slowly move from west to east, bringing with it widespread mid to high clouds. A cold front will be dipping south out of Canada in the afternoon or early evening, so northern sites may not have enough time reach their potential highs. Also, with the strong warm air advection ahead of the front, abundant cloud cover may work to keep highs a bit cooler.
As such, have trended just slightly above NBM numbers, with temps topping out in the low to mid 70s areawide. Impulse and weak cold front will pass to our n Wednesday, bringing some slightly drier dewpoints swd for Wednesday night.
913 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Temperatures have warmed quite quickly this morning after starting out around freezing, most sites are already in upper 40s to lower 50s. The only exception is across northeast AL where sites are still in the lower 40s. Overall a very pleasant day with high pressure overhead. A substantial warming trend will occur mid to late week as the aforementioned high pressure ridge amplifies over the Deep South.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 38 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 37 61 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 37 59 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 32 56 43 61 / 0 0 10 10 0.
Unfortunately, this has not been the case across our far southern zones with current readings sitting 3 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Even with the introduction of slightly cooler temperatures up north, highs will still exceed the climatological norm for late November by 10 to 20 degrees.
The high pressure causing this is locked in place until sometime in the extended. This morning was fairly easy as southerly wind from the trough kept the stratus and fog banked along the northwest and north end of the Snake River plain, from Island Park over to Terreton/Mud Lake and southwestward to the Craters of the Moon.
/19/ High pressure at the surface now centered east of the CWA, has resulted in southwest flow returning to the forecast area. This, coupled with flow aloft flattening a bit will yield warmer, but continued quiet, conditions across the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Dry through the period and after a colder than normal start, temperatures will top out above normal this afternoon and bottom out warmer than normal Wednesday morning. /22/ By Wednesday morning a trough will cross the region but will have little impact on our weather pattern.