Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thunderstorms have entered southwest North Dakota as the warm front continues to push northward. Early this morning a warm front is pushing northward across South Dakota. The latest 00 UTC global models and more recent CAMs keep the warm front draped generally along the ND/SD border most of the day and only pushing slightly further north (perhaps around Bismarck) later this afternoon. While any storm that fires along the warm front should remain elevated there will likely be enough MUCAPE and effective shear to sustain a strong or possibly severe storm or two. Southerly low-level flow should bring surface dew points back into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon. With bulk shear around 50 knots orthogonal to the approaching cold front an environment supportive of supercells will be present in the pre- frontal air mass.
The highest chances for seeing any stronger storms will be along the coast, as incoming cells interact with the east coast sea breeze boundary. However, the highest chance for showers and storms will be this afternoon, as coverage increases.
902 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A frontal trough sinking in from the north and high pressure to the south and extending west into the Gulf is supporting a deep layered west-northwest wind flow across the forecast area this morning. As for the remainder of today expect to see the highest rain chances and best areal coverage of showers and storms to focus over inland and eastern portions of the peninsula which is typical for a westerly flow regime. It will be warm and humid with afternoon highs topping out around 90 to the lower 90s with heat indices in the 105 to 107 degree range which is just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
Aloft, ridging will continue to build over the Rockies increasing NWrly flow over the region. Within this NWrly flow, impulses are progged to traverse the periphery of the ridge through the short term. Another MCS may move across NE and C AR on Saturday, otherwise temperatures will continue to climb upwards, reaching the lower to middle 90s.
A splintered western Atlantic ridge will meander near the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida for the next several days.
A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will bring dry weather, generally light winds and above normal temperatures to the district during the next 7 days.
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 VFR conditions expected to hold for the next 24 hours as upper ridging continues. Subtropical ridge will continue its residency over the region supporting another day of hot above normal temperatures.
545 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions can be expected today.
1010 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. A cold front, currently situated in western Indiana, will continue to advance into the Ohio River Valley later today. With another hot day upon us (temps in the low-90s), pre-frontal storms will likely ignite shortly after lunch. Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as the center of a low pressure system lingers over Lake Erie. By early Saturday morning, the low pressure system mentioned above will swing across I-80 and morph into a weak trough.
As southerly winds continue and the low levels remain moist, another round of MVFR stratus is forecast for Saturday morning. The upper level ridge will be centered over far West Texas and New Mexico today and only expand into the weekend. The ridge will not only lead to mostly clear and dry afternoons, but subsidence underneath the ridge will aid in the warming trend that will continue today through the weekend. The typical summer time pattern of overnight stratus developing through Saturday AM can be expected again as southeasterly winds at the surface continue to keep the low levels very moisture rich.
An upper ridge, centered over the four corners region, will expand north and westward on Friday. The warmer air mass aloft should lead to a shallower and more compressed marine layer today through Saturday.
409 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions can be expected today.
These moist conditions will be short-lived this morning however, as a potent upper-level low passes to the north along the Wyoming-Montana border with strong westerly winds developing across the region today in response to the low. Saturday will offer a respite from the winds as the upper level ridge deepens over the region, though it'll continue to be warm with highs reaching into the low 90s across most of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle.
Drying is expected after 03Z as the cold front sweeps southeast, but scattered SHRA will persist a few hours later at TRI, so included an additional PROB30. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 71 90 69 92 / 20 20 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 69 88 68 90 / 50 40 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 68 89 67 90 / 50 20 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 85 64 87 / 50 50 10 10 30.
As Fay moves out of the area, a low pressure system propagates in from the Great Lakes Region bringing more unsettled weather for the weekend. As Fay exits to the north into Canada, a 500 mb trough digs into the Great Lakes region. As the trough moves in, steepening lapse rates aloft will prime the atmosphere for another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A trough will slide into NY/PA during the short term period and import cooler temperatures into the upper atmosphere. Combined with warm temperatures at the surface on Saturday, the trough will generate unstable conditions with EHI values between 1.
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The short-term forecast remains on track this morning, as the low-level stratus and patchy fog from early this morning has coming to an end. Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region by this evening as T. Models showing drier air pushing into the area from the northwest beginning this evening which should keep mostly clear to clear skies overnight allowing for cooler than normal temperatures across north GA. With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, temperatures will again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
As this system exits to the east the main trof begins to move into the area from the west. While there will be a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms with this system and associated cold front for western and central areas late morning into early afternoon, the timing and strength of the northwest winds with it will keep chances low. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will gust 30 to 40 mph at times through early this evening. Ridge builds into the area for Saturday, with sunny and dry conditions boosting temperatures into the upper 80s and early 90s.
Very strong high pressure will build over the southwest United States this weekend, with dangerously hot temperatures expected across northern Arizona. High pressure centered over the New Mexico Arizona border region will continue to dominate the short term forecast.
Forecast Confidence is medium to high: Quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure slides by to the south. Clouds should decrease overnight as well as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
927 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A heatwave will impact inland areas this weekend as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
/issued 345 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ WV imagery shows a broad ridge spanning the srn CONUS, centered roughly over far west Texas, w/the KEPZ 00Z sounding coming in at 500mb/596dam.
Partly cloudy skies and cooler air behind Friday night's frontal feature will keep temperatures cooler during the day, with upper 70s and low 80s for high temperatures.
500mb subtropical ridge across New Mexico and northwest Texas will move little tonight through Sat night and will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas through the short term.
Broad ridging in place across the northern Plains and Rockies. A short wave trough currently traversing across the Montana High Plains will be a contributor for convective development this afternoon across the Dakotas.
Models suggest the the disturbance will continue to move off to the southeast with more convection firing along the trough axis that extends to the west/southwest.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 69 92 70 / 20 0 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 68 90 69 / 40 10 10 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 67 90 68 / 20 10 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 85 64 87 66 / 40 10 10 30 30.
Large thunderstorm complex will likely continue to progress into southeast Oklahoma by early afternoon in the higher instability axis.
Seasonably warm today with upper 80s to near 90 in the Basin and warmer portions of central OR. Warmer tomorrow. Assessed storm potential with approaching trough and expect conditions to not be particularly favorable for storms with our system tomorrow evening.
309 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A cold front is working its way through the Bluegrass region as it pushes a line of showers east out of central Kentucky. This clearing trend will continue as northwest surface winds bring in high pressure behind the front. Skies will begin to slowly clear and slightly cooler temperatures will be felt. Expect winds to be between 10-15 mph for most of the day, so highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will hopefully feel a little cooler than the past few day.
1038 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions can be expected today.
Otherwise, conditions will be dry through Saturday morning with brief ridging.
Mostly clear skies today with slightly cooler temperatures than what we saw yesterday.
Otherwise, the majority of the day on Saturday looks dry ahead of a disturbance and trailing cold front coming through Saturday night.
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Northwesterly flow persists across the region as an upper level trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region and Tropical Storm Fay continues to push northward along the mid-Atlantic coast and into New England. However, rain chances are a little lower than the previous several days, with the highest PoPs in the 30-40 percent range. This drier air will keep rain chances to a minimum on Saturday and keep mostly clear to clear skies during the overnight hours, allowing for cooler than normal low temperatures over north Georgia. In contrast, High temperatures of 1-4 degrees above normal, in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia, are expected this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
The tail end of this trough could help initiate showers and thunderstorms over Yellowstone and the far northern end of the Absarokas this afternoon and evening.
Upper ridging then builds over the area tonight through Saturday night with dry weather and temps slightly above normal.
229 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 High pressure brings sunny and warmer conditions across the region on Saturday.
Saturday could be slightly wetter as a mid level trough edges closer to the area and could provide some extra lift.
115 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. A cold front, currently situated in western Indiana, will continue to advance into the Ohio River Valley later today. With another hot day upon us (temps in the low-90s), pre-frontal storms will likely ignite shortly after lunch. Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as the center of a low pressure system lingers over Lake Erie. By early Saturday morning, the low pressure system mentioned above will swing across I-80 and morph into a weak trough.
With suppressed convection, temperatures are expected to be warmer than today with mid to upper 90s across most of the area.
High pressure was controlling the regions weather for today with light winds and the quiet weather will continue this evening. The Ozarks is on the eastern edge off an upper level ridge which will allow for the potential of overnight MCS's and hot temperatures to continue. If locations arn't impacted by the MCS or cloud cover doesn't occur, temperatures may be warmer than forecast.
Based on available boundaries (synoptic-scale cold front, lee-side surface trof, OFB's), synoptic-scale set up with a notable s/w moving out of Montana, and a formidable upper jet streak in play (underneath the left exit region on an upper level 100+ knot speed max), this evening into the overnight certainly looks like a candidate for some significant severe weather (likely discrete very large hail producing supercells that eventually turn into prolific wind producers). The mid-level s/w trof generating tonight's convective activity is still progged to take a jog southeastward on Saturday and pass over/near the northeast corner of SoDak/wc Minn, bringing additional chances for less-impressive looking convection on Saturday mainly east of the James River valley over into western MN.
259 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 After a quiet day today and just a tad cooler and less humid, CAMs continue to indicate development of an MCS either over southern South Dakota or northern Nebraska by this evening.
Tonight through Saturday: Northwest mid level flow remained over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today, along northeast quadrant of high pressure centered over New Mexico.
/Issued 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ The short-term forecast remains on track this morning, as the low-level stratus and patchy fog from early this morning has coming to an end. Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region by this evening as T. Models showing drier air pushing into the area from the northwest beginning this evening which should keep mostly clear to clear skies overnight allowing for cooler than normal temperatures across north GA. With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, temperatures will again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
309 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A cold front is working its way through the Bluegrass region as it pushes a line of showers east out of central Kentucky. This clearing trend will continue as northwest surface winds bring in high pressure behind the front. Skies will begin to slowly clear and slightly cooler temperatures will be felt. Expect winds to be between 10-15 mph for most of the day, so highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will hopefully feel a little cooler than the past few days.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A cold front is moving through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this morning. This front will bring the area somewhat cooler air today, but the real change in the weather will be much less humid air. Dew point temperatures are falling into the mid 60s behind the front, and with some mixing this afternoon the dew point looks to drop into the low 60s in many locations.
The weekend is expected to be cooler, with highs rising into the low to mid 80s.
Have also kept pops below mentionable for Saturday and Saturday night given a pronounced mid level warm layer aloft courtesy of a stout mid level ridge of high pressure in close proximity to the area with 500 mb heights around 597 to 598 decameters progged.
An inverted trough or outflow boundary was from south central Kansas , nw to around hays. Overnight lows can be far warmer across the Pratt - Med Lodge areas (in the mid 70s) compared to mid 60s forecast around Syracuse.
Areas near the lake will be a little warmer with lows in the low 60s.
Aside from a few light showers in Northwest Montana this afternoon, dry and warmer is on the way as high pressure ridging builds overhead into Saturday.
1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions can be expected today.
/issued 902 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ A frontal trough sinking in from the north and high pressure to the south and extending west into the Gulf is supporting a deep layered west-northwest wind flow across the forecast area this morning. As for the remainder of today expect to see the highest rain chances and best areal coverage of showers and storms to focus over inland and eastern portions of the peninsula which is typical for a westerly flow regime. It will be warm and humid with afternoon highs topping out around 90 to the lower 90s with heat indices in the 105 to 107 degree range which is just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
232 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and cooler weather to central and southeast Illinois tonight. High pressure currently over MO will slide southeast to the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. With a dry column and light winds, overnight lows will be cooler than the last several, ranging from the lower 60s in east central IL, to the upper 60s in west central IL. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger late Saturday night with the passage of the mid level trof.
largely because the high- resolution CAMs have been struggling at best with the ongoing convection and the convective evolution for tonight.
202 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The upper ridge over the region will continue to shift eastward as an upper trough approaches from the west. At the surface, an area of low pressure has developed over northeastern Wyoming, with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern Montana. Destabilization is occurring across northeastern Wyoming ahead of a quickly moving cold front in eastern Montana and a dryline in northeastern Wyoming. Saturday will be slightly cooler than today.
Further west, including the Memphis Metro, lows will likely stay in the lower 70s. By late tonight, a MCS is forecast to develop over Missouri and track SSE into the Lower Mississippi Valley by late tomorrow morning.
High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
Very strong high pressure will build over the southwest United States this weekend, with dangerously hot temperatures expected across northern Arizona. Similar conditions exist this weekend, as the position and strength of the high pressure cell will continue to limit convection. The direct result of this strong high pressure and lack of widespread rainfall or cloud cover means Arizona will really heat up for the next several days. Excessive Heat Warnings continue to be the highest impact weather we are forecasting through the weekend and the messaging will remain the same.
The area will remain between an expanding upper ridge to our west and an upper trough to the east.
The large, in charge upper ridge centered over the region will continue to control the weather for the foreseeable future.
Deep layer west-northwest flow continues as troughing associated with Tropical Storm Fay extends southward along the eastern seaboard and weak ridging remains over the west-central Gulf.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon into tonight as the 500mb subtropical ridge across New Mexico and northwest Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over New Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA during the period.
00Z upper air analysis and evening GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over the Southwest United States with the Lower Mississippi Valley remaining on the eastern periphery of this ridge axis. Further west, including the Memphis Metro, lows will likely stay in the lower 70s. By late tonight, a MCS is forecast to develop over Missouri and track SSE into the Lower Mississippi Valley by late tomorrow morning.
1024 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Currently - A trough over the eastern United States reaches southward through the Florida Peninsula. This has split a ridge across the Keys. The proximity of the trough has resulted in a broad cyclonic flow across our area. A trough over the eastern United States reaching southward through Florida will maintain light winds becoming primarily westerly overnight.
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 After a quiet day today and just a tad cooler and less humid, CAMs continue to indicate development of an MCS either over southern South Dakota or northern Nebraska by this evening.
For now, have inserted prob30 groups during the afternoon hours at most sites, except KMLC which stands the lowest chance.
323 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Updated Air Quality Issues section A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will bring dry weather, generally light winds and above normal temperatures to the district during the next 7 days.
835 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and cooler weather to central and southeast Illinois tonight. Upper air data this evening and moisture channel data shows northwest flow aloft over IL with vort max over northeast MT and trof axis extending south to western SD. Clear skies overnight with light winds and pleasant conditions as dew points in the lower 60s. High pressure currently over MO will slide southeast to the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. With a dry column and light winds, overnight lows will be cooler than the last several, ranging from the lower 60s in east central IL, to the upper 60s in west central IL. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger late Saturday night with the passage of the mid level trof.
This evening is generally clear, dry, and slightly cooler than last evening as an upper trough passes through. The trough will exit east tonight and Saturday will be hotter as a hot air mass to our south builds northward.
511 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The cold front will push to the east this evening.
Conditions will be dry through Saturday morning with brief ridging.
Where rain and clouds held on most of the day, afternoon temps only climb into the upper 60s and low 70s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Upstream of the region, another cold front was observed gradually dropping southeast across western Ontario. This cold front will drop south throughout the day, bringing gusty north to northwest winds across the area. Expect cooler and near-normal temperatures, with widespread 70s and a few pockets of 80s across the south-central where downsloping winds will aid in locally warming conditions.
The airmass is expected to remain in place during the period, manifested as an upper level high pressure ridge. Slightly warmer (National Blend) and drier conditions (GFS/NAM PWAT value predictions) are anticipated for tomorrow.
Storms will taper off overnight as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures will follow for the weekend. Cold front is pushing across the area this evening with some showers and thunderstorms along and in advance of the front. Will update the forecast to better handle pops this evening as the cold front pushes across the area.
Storms will taper off overnight as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures will follow for the weekend. Will update the forecast to better handle pops this evening as the cold front pushes across the area.
225 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will bring dry weather, generally light winds and above normal temperatures to the district during the next 7 days.
Potentially recording breaking highs are in the forecast for the weekend, as the center of high pressure nudges northward and encroaches the CWA. Amidst the heat, moisture rotating around the western periphery of the ridge will begin to advect into the region on Saturday.
/Issued 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ Northwesterly flow persists across the region as an upper level trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region and Tropical Storm Fay continues to push northward along the mid-Atlantic coast and into New England. However, rain chances are a little lower than the previous several days, with the highest PoPs in the 30-40 percent range. This drier air will keep rain chances to a minimum on Saturday and keep mostly clear to clear skies during the overnight hours, allowing for cooler than normal low temperatures over north Georgia. In contrast, High temperatures of 1-4 degrees above normal, in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia, are expected this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
High pressure brings sunny and warmer conditions across the region on Saturday.
Storms will taper off overnight as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures will follow for the weekend.