Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1029 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Cold front will continue to slowly move south across the CWA overnight. This line of storms is associated with a weak cold front that will slowly progress through north Georgia today as the upper trough pushes eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Westerly flow continues at the surface around the north side of high pressure located in northeast Oklahoma. The lowest dewpoints in the north, were the flow is strongest and the soils, the driest. The upper pattern in the extended will shift from a dry ridge and zonal hot flow aloft, to one featuring a hot and humid airmass under a broad, but weak upper low.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: An upper ridge over the area is flattening and will be expanding over the western half of the country Friday. At the surface, low pressure is developing over Saskatchewan by tonight and will move across Manitoba Friday. A trailing cold front looks to move south across the CWA early in the day then destabilization ignites scattered thunderstorms over SW and central Montana early in the afternoon.
The upper low stalled off the Baja, CA coast for what seems like forever will finally move east and dissolve. In it's place, a closed low is forming over north central TX and it will drift south the next couple of days. Finally, the high pressure ridge axis over the Great Basin will switch from north to south, to southwest to northeast.
CAMS show some showers moving in, mainly in the northern Midlands, during the overnight hours as the trough axis nears the region and a weak frontal boundary moves through the area.
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The upper level ridge responsible for the increase in temperatures today will continue to remain the main player in our weather pattern during this forecast period.
Showers should be over by mid to late evening, with a few lingering showers over the higher terrain near the CO/NM border. It will be rather warm tomorrow and anticipate temps to max out in the lower 890s over the plains along the Ark River with 80s over the remainder of the plains.
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 154 PM CDT Copy, paste, and repeat! It's another warm early-summer day with current temperatures in the lower 80s, a westerly breezy, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today though with highs a few degrees warmer and in the upper 80s to around 90. An upper ridge will build across the region this weekend with high temps expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.
549 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 An upper level trough continues to rotate northeast over the Lower Ohio Valley and may have played a partial role in the brief strengthening of a thunderstorm over Harrison County IN. Sfc cold front draped south through central KY continues to push eastward, and the window is beginning to close for strong convection. Current sfc analysis places the cold front across western Kentucky, evident by NW winds on the Kentucky Mesonet. By this evening, precip should begin to taper off as the sfc front pushes east, but the upper trough axis should still be located across the Ohio Valley through the short term. Friday morning lows are forecast to drop into the upper 50s across the region, slightly cooler than climo. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s under with light west winds.
836 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Low pressure and its accompanying cold front will weaken while moving through the region overnight through Friday. The front will wash out offshore over the weekend, as weak high pressure settles across the local area.
131 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Low pressure and its accompanying cold front will weaken while moving through the region overnight through Friday. The front will wash out offshore over the weekend, as weak high pressure settles across the local area. Late this evening, a cold front was still back in SE OH and ern KY. With the cold front slowly approaching from the west overnight, and the upper trough still west of the region, expect more sctd showers and isolated tstms to redevelop overnight into Fri morning. Broad trough aloft will swing through the region Fri into Fri night, gradually pushing the bulk of the significant moisture S and E of the FA. Variable clouds/partly sunny Fri with highs mainly in the lower-mid 80s. High pressure builds over the area for Sat.
241 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Upper level low is positioned south of the forecast area early this morning with ridging running from the Southwestern U. There is an outside chance that a rogue thunderstorm could rotate around the low potentially impacting the southern Rolling Plains into the southeastern South Plains this afternoon however again confidence in this happening is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations in the low to mid 80's under partly cloudy skies. /WCI A mid level low continues to be indicated over the Lone Star State for Saturday morning and this feature will be quite slow to do much moving as it remains lodged between a ridge in the southwestern CONUS and the Bermuda high.
WV imagery this morning showing a large area of high pressure centered over the central Great Basin.
After early morning fog, today will be mainly sunny with highs mostly in the lower 80s. For tonight, high pressure surface and aloft will be in control. For the rest of the weekend, Saturday looks mainly dry, but models have trended faster bringing moisture up from the south as a large upper level low starts to drift northeast out of Texas.
Through Friday, the forecast area will remain sandwiched between deeper moisture and a summertime convective pattern to the east, and an upper trough (along with a little forcing) stretching NE-SW to the west of the area. An upper level blocking pattern begins to set up through the short term period with a PW gradient remaining in place over the area.
Strong high pressure will remain over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the end of the work week, resulting in record breaking high temperatures. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the weekend, though temperatures will remain well above normal. High pressure remains firmly in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening, resulting in generally dry conditions and very hot temperatures. The ridge will start to flatten a bit by tomorrow afternoon, but the warming trend will continue, especially over northern Utah. The flattening of the ridge from a storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest should increase winds just enough to combine with the hot and dry conditions to result in some critical fire weather conditions.
Farther to the north, upper troughing and a weak frontal boundary extends southwest through the Ohio River Valley. The ridge will hold and keep the front to the north until Saturday when the front washes out.
Very wet period still looks on tap across the region through the short term period as a stationary frontal boundary and upper low over Texas continues to provide the mechanisms for periods of rain and thunderstorms.
1232 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the southwest CONUS to Saskatchewan and a trough into the central Great Lakes resulting in northwest flow toward Upper Michigan. Lingering low level moisture along with clearing and temps dropping into the low to mid 50s will result in potential for patchy fog development. Friday, as the mid level ridge builds into the region with increasing southwest low level WAA (850 temp to around 18C) temps will climb into the mid and upper 80s. SSW winds at or below 10 mph will be weak enough to lake breeze development off of Lake Superior with some cooler air near the shore. A fairly broad ridge over the plain states, will continue to move toward the upper Great Lakes region during the weekend.
A ridge centered over the Great Basin will slow drift eastward on Friday with continued subsident flow across our forecast area. The ample sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft will allow temperatures to approach 90 in Denver although it appears the high will be a degree or two short of that mark. High pressure over the western US will shift east from the weekend onward. A Pacific NW upper trough will move onshore Saturday morning, then push east along the Canadian border in the nrn stream. With ridge cresting over the region Saturday we'll see above normal temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s mountains and low 90s on the plains.
All rain has dissipated, but with dew points in the lower to middle 60s, areas of fog are already developing, especially in southern middle TN and the valleys of northeast AL. The rest of the day should be dry and warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Patchy to areas of fog are again expected tonight with lows in the lower 60s.
A blocking, more stagnant Bermuda High appears to be expanding into the southeastern CONUS which will continue to help slow progression east of a weak mid to upper level circulation meandering east/northeast through the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley regions. A western CONUS ridge remains in place at this hour and will gradually flatten and shift east into the northern and central Plains through the weekend. Trends continue to keep any residual moisture from wrapping around the weak southern CONUS upper low focused to the southeast of the area.
An upper level ridge remains centered over the Desert Southwest, which extends into the Northern and Central Plains. Highs today remain very close to the previous forecast with most locations reaching in the lower 90s. The high at Valentine is now forecast to reach 98 degrees. On Saturday, the upper ridge will flatten out. Highs will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper 90s northern NE.
(Today and tonight) The center of a large upper level low was located across Crockett County, with an upper level trough of low pressure located between the Big Bend and Del Rio. Models show the upper level low pressure system slowly drifting to the east and reaching San Saba this evening.
1008 PM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Water vapor shows large upper ridge over the Western CONUS extending into the Plains, with center of high over the Great Basin. At the surface, weak trof extends from northeast to southwest across SD. Friday and Saturday will be hot with thermal ridge peaking over the area. Expect all plains locations to rise in the 90s (a tad cooler in the Black Hills) with a few locations reaching 100. There is a slightly better chance for a few storms Saturday night as upper ridge flattens with trof developing over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, sending a cold front through the Northern Plains.
127 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, and satellite shows mostly clear skies across the northern plains. Thermal ridge axis will move over the CWA today and Saturday, resulting in hot temperatures both days.
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 (This evening through Friday) An upper trough remains over our area this afternoon. A weak closed low is expected to develop over the southern half of our area overnight with a slow eastward drift on Friday. The higher Pops and greater coverage will be generally across the area southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line on Friday. Little temperature change is expected, with forecast lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s, and highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
319 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Ridging aloft will gradually flatten today into Saturday which will allow a more westerly component to the wind in the low levels. Compared to mixing yesterday, which topped out around 8-9 kft, similar mixing heights are expected today with temperatures aloft about 2-3 degrees warmer. This will bring very warm lows for Saturday morning, but will not stray too far from the 50th percentile as dry and droughty conditions usually support a larger diurnal range, so mostly lows in the mid 60s with some warmer readings likely near and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
Large high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and build westward resulting in a deep southwesterly flow that will advect very warm air into the region.
With a trough lifting off the eastern seaboard and a cutoff low over Texas, the western half of the CWA; the FL Panhandle and SE AL, lie within a slightly more favorable environment when it comes to forcing for ascent, available instability and PW values greater than 1. Expect daytime highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the low 70s.
07z WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the Intermountain West, a trough over the eastern Great Lakes, and an upper low over SW TX, resulting in northeasterly flow over the Panhandles. At the surface, winds are generally light and out of the south, with temperatures mainly in the lower 60s.
Otherwise spotty MVFR CIGS are expected around sunrise with CIGS likely remaining on the low side throughout the day as showers and thunderstorms form and ex- pand in coverage. The upper level trough becomes a closed low early Friday and begin its slow approach to Southeast Texas through the day on Friday.
323 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 An upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will shift eastward today, bringing another day of much above average temperatures. While the short wave will flatten the ridge some on Saturday, low level temperatures remain the same as today, with highs reaching the 90s, to around 100 degrees. Early on in the forecast period, there is that cold front trying to work south and east through the CWA.
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U. and a trough in the east this morning. This will help to flatten the top of the ridge over the upper Great Lakes a bit today as it tries to build into the area. A fairly broad ridge over the plain states, will continue to move toward the upper Great Lakes region during the weekend.
The weak trough aloft will continue to drift over west-central Texas, and scattered mid/high-level clouds will be seen today with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Daytime heating may allow for the development of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though grids show low POPs given the low predictability.
A large positively tilted upper trof initially extends from the interior eastern states to the southern Plains, where an incipient upper low is beginning to form over Texas. A weak surface trof, which is rather weak indeed with not much more than a wind shift, currently extends from central Mississippi to across northern Alabama. The upper trof slowly lifts off to the north through Saturday allowing for broad upper ridging to build from the extreme southeast states towards the Ohio River valley while the upper low centered over Texas slowly expands. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
Light winds and dry airmass over the region may allow for a bit cooler temperatures so did bump temps down slightly overnight. The upper level ridge responsible for the increase in temperatures today will continue to remain the main player in our weather pattern during this forecast period.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Northern High Plains and Central Rockies. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado. Dry conditions will continue today and tonight as a weakening upper level ridge moves across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Prevailing low level southerlies will further draw warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado border. Look for lows generally down into the lower 60s(F) tonight with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas. Dry, tranquil weather will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge out west dampens and a weak cut-off low spins over central TX.
An upper trough will finish swinging through with scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then after a quiet night, the leading edge of building heat will get underway Saturday.
Midlevel heights aloft show just a bit of ridging despite the aforementioned low, and the area should remain mostly dry tonight and tomorrow. Looking ahead toward Saturday, the low over Texas will start to drift over NE TX, bringing some upper level energy across the area.
Generalized negative vorticity advection along with confluence in the exiting upper level jet will create a broad region of subsidence within the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Also, with broad subsidence in correspondence with high pressure, dry conditions and minimal cloud cover is likely. Temperatures will be similar if not slightly warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s.
239 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Weak ridging is slowly pushing off to the east into the Ohio Valley with a weak trough moving into the Northern Rockies.
Upper air data showing northerly flow in place as we sit on the east side of ridging extending northward from high pressure over the southwestern CONUS, reaching into central portions of Canada. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a system spinning over TX is bringing unsettled weather to that area with troughing up along the East Coast, and another disturbance is making its way into the Pac NW region.
1146 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A few lingering showers over the eastern Ozarks were ongoing this afternoon underneath an exiting upper level trough of low pressure. This will create mainly sunny conditions on Friday with highs in the low 80s. Mostly dry weather is expected as afternoon highs warm into the low to mid 80s.
A Rex Block takes shape today over the central CONUS with the upper level ridge axis bending eastward over the Southern Plains low, enabling westerly WAA to continue through the day and pushing the threat for showers east of the forecast area. While the lower tropospheric thermal ridge axis will be north of the forecast area, 850mb temperatures will still push +20C today.
A slow moving trough will eject to the east of the region this morning. A trough lifting across the area will continue to bring scattered showers and degraded flight conditions to some area terminals. Diurnal mixing and drying in wake of the trough passage will lead to VFR everywhere by late morning and through the remainder of the TAF period.
At the surface, high pressure south of the area had moved slightly east this morning. Temperatures ranged from 70 to the low 60s with mostly clear skies. With little change, other than some additional moisture, expect a repeat of yesterday or even a few degrees warmer as a nod to the mix down from H7. With the high pressure shifting slightly east this morning, we will have a better fetch to see some moisture return. Dewpoints this afternoon will mainly be around 50 degrees, which is warmer than yesterday by a few degrees. As such, today will feel warmer than yesterday. Discussion: Blocking pattern with a high over low block looks to continue through the weekend.
419 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A cold front will clear the area this afternoon. High pressure will return with mainly dry weather for the weekend. The upper trough axis tracks east of the area by evening, but could induce a few showers/isolated storms this morning over the mountains of WV. During the late afternoon Saturday, down towards the NC mountains there is a slight chance of a stray shower as those areas are further from the center of the high, but on the whole, Saturday looks to be a pleasantly warm, clear day.
Lows tonight will be in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Highs will likely reach into the lower to middle 80s.
345 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough that has brought so much severe wx and rain to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico the past week or so currently centered over the Permian Basin. The exception will be the Big Bend/lower Tran Pecos, where the exiting trough will have residual (yet waning) influence the next 24 hours. For the first time in a while, forecast soundings on the lower Trans Pecos show shallow mid- lvl lapse rates and little deep-lyr shear to write home about. As the trough traipses east, upper-level ridging will begin building into the region, and temperatures will gradually warm as a result.
The slow moving trough will eject to the east of the region this morning. With the deep moisture well east of the region and warmer air aloft overspreading the area, the atmosphere will become less and less conducive to supporting new shower and storm development. Further deterioration to IFR stratus is expected overnight with low lvl moisture in place under the crossing trough.
This evening through Friday night Strong ridging continues over most of the western CONUS today. The ridge will flatten somewhat on Friday, but 700mb temperatures will generally peak Friday afternoon in the 16C to 18C range as this occurs; Friday will be the hottest day of the year thus far with likely widespread broken or near-broken high temperature records. With the flattening ridge and weak instability, isolated convection does look more likely Friday, mainly across the north. A weak cold front will arrive Friday evening which will keep isolated showers and thunderstorm chances across the far northwest through early Saturday morning.
Better chances for convection will be seen for Sat into Sat night as an upper level closed low over TX lifts north into the Red River Valley region of TX/OK. This will put AR downstream of this upper low under S/SW flow aloft.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 89 67 85 / 10 0 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 62 87 64 87 / 10 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 87 63 87 / 0 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 57 85 60 88 / 20 10 10 0 10.
Overnight low temperatures tonight will drop down to the low 60s. Actually, it'll be cooler to the south that won't be in play here.
2)Much drier weather returns today with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80's. This should continue to take place as the low to mid level clouds continue to clear out.
217 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A mid to upper ridge will prevail from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the southwest North Atlantic. South Florida will be under the western periphery of high pressure centered to our northeast.
For Friday, expect a repeat of today (though even warmer) as upper level ridging takes over with anomalously warm temperatures aloft. Upper level ridging continues aloft, though height rises begin to slow down as the jet streak along the west coast begins to flatten the ridge.
315 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Early this morning, an upper RIDGE was over the eastern and central Rockies with an upper TROF axis over the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over western Tennessee resulting in a light S-SW flow over our region. Skies were clear over our region with temperatures mainly in the low-mid 60s although isolated spots have dipped into the 50s. The upper flow pattern is one that is progressive, with the upper RIDGE over the eastern/central Rockies translating eastward to the upper MS Valley by late Saturday with a new TROF filling the vacancy in the northwestern CONUS left by the departing RIDGE. This ridging will be less of a factor on Saturday, bringing in higher dewpoints in the low 60s.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer side for the night. Friday and Friday night the upper ridge to the west will start to build into the area. Through the weekend there is an upper level low that has been undercutting the ridge. The low has been in the southern Plains and as the end of the weekend it starts to wobble.