Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY.
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ITS POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TODAY.
1206 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
1127 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HOLD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL KEEP SE WINDS TODAY. A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO E TX WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPAND EAST AS WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE DEAMPLIFIES AND CONFLUENT NW FLOW TAKES HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE COLUMN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE PROVIDED THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 12Z AND SNOWPACK WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RESPONDING MUCH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
259 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. TRANSITION TO NWRLY WINDS INPROGRESS AS SECONDAY TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
216 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016 COLD ADVECTING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DROP INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST WITH MORE DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1033 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 A WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE DOWN OVER THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. BECOMING LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. RESULTING IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT THEN CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. THE HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
140 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY. AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE SNOW HAS HAD DIFFICULTY ACCUMULATING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. AND OMEGA PLACEMENT ARE ALL FACTORS TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV. STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
ONLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF MARITIME MOISTURE INTO COLORADO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SCATTERING OF MID- LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH MTNS THIS MORNING COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS EARLY. FURTHERMORE THE LOW-LEVEL PRES GRADIENT ON THE PLAINS HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. COULD SEE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED OVERNIGHT ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND ON THE HIGHER EAST FACING SLOPES WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE IN WIND PRONE AREAS BY MORNING.
This along with full sunshine will help temperatures rebound with most locations reaching the lower if not middle 50s.
Ceilings across NW Arkansas will remain at the low end of VFR levels through the afternoon. /ISSUED 301 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016/ A cold front has pushed through much of the area this morning with little impact. Rather chilly temperatures are expected tonight as high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front.
/ISSUED 305 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016/ TRAILING TROUGH BEHIND LOW SITUATED NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH WHILST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS SOON AS TOMORROW /60S/. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UA RIDGE EDGES EWRD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS SRN WI. WITH THE DISPLACEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LLVL THERMAL TROUGH EXPECT LESS STRATOCU COVERAGE. IT WILL LIKELY STAY A TAD WARMER.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP13 INCICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE OR SHIFT IN THE LOWER CLOUDS/925-850MB RH FIELD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH EXITING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND/OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY 12Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
LARGE HOLE IN THE LOWER CLOUD DECK REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BRINK NORTHWEST WIND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS WELL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST LOOK LIKELY WITH 30S REMAINING TO THE EAST.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an amplified trough across the east coast, with upstream ridging over the West. The clouds should begin to push off to the east by Friday night as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.
1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the low levels compared to previous soundings.
402 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. A DRY / WEAK TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
AND HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN CA.
THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENIGN AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
401 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. TRANSITION TO NWRLY WINDS INPROGRESS AS SECONDAY TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
326 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016 SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE NOSE OF A INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE HEADS OUR WAY.
1246 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HOLD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH 84 HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND AFFECT THE AREA SAT NIGHT. SHORT WAVE WILL SEND COOLER AIR INTO THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND TEMPORARILY STALL. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RIDGING EAST OF PACIFIC TROUGH.
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
654 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LOW DIGGING IN AT H5 OVER THE DESERT SW. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING ACROSS ILLINOIS, AS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO COLORADO.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN OVER COLORADO.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
But even with broken to overcast skies forecast, warm advection and building thicknesses suggest warmer temperatures will prevail.
641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
1110 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
NORTHERN RAIN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS CELLS MOVING INTO A NON-WORKED OVER AIR MASS WITH SOUTHERN CWA ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG EITHER THE WARM FRONT OR OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION.
939 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. WITH THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH 70S.
1029 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 STALLED COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY.
425 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
901 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AS THE CLEAR SKIES ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LOW DIGGING IN AT H5 OVER THE DESERT SW. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING ACROSS ILLINOIS, AS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO COLORADO.
716 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
Upper low continues to spin around the Four Corners this afternoon. Low and mid level moisture transport into central and western Kansas will continue this evening and increase overnight as the low level jet strengthens. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the evening and overnight with the highest confidence mainly west of a Marysville to Manhattan to Council Grove line where shear and instability will be favorable for strong to a few severe storms. On Friday, the upper low will pivot east northeast from the four corners into southern Colorado.
A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS CO. MODELS COMING TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST. WITH GFS WARMER AND ECMWF MUCH COOLER. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
An upper low is near the Four Corners region this afternoon, and a dryline has mixed east into into West Texas. The upper low will move into northern New Mexico tonight. Low temperatures tonight should be similar to last night, and mostly in the lower 60s. As the upper low moves from northern New Mexico into Colorado on Friday, the dryline will advance farther east, and should be in our far western counties in the afternoon. With the upper low moving farther east, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will shift to our eastern counties.
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART UNDER GENERAL HIGH SFC PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
504 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
1030 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MAIN CENTER EXITS INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND TROUGH AXIS CLEARS LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT. MUTED RIDGING WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL ADVECT A DRY COLUMN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN MANY AREAS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RELEASE OF THE MARINE LAYER/LAKE BREEZE. IT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKES.
927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHALLENGES ABOUND IN THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
911 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2015 High pressure over the west coast for mainly fair skies and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 75 57 77 / 30 30 10 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 75 56 77 / 20 30 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 75 57 77 / 20 30 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 73 52 78 / 20 20 10 20.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BROOKINGS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN CURRY COUNTY.
An upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower Trans Pecos. Much of the Permian Basin south through the Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this afternoon. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can be expected.
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PREV DISCUSSION 240 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015 OUR LINGERING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. AS THE LOW EXITS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER AND AREA-WIDE DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
1048 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR KAMA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MIGHT ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST.
1018 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
930 PM MST THU APR 16 2015 EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION.
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO. A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. SOME HINTS OF A WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT.