Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Toward midnight and beyond, the focus will be with the passage of a weak front, and DPVA approaching our northern CWFA, at the southern extent of a trof axis from the Great Lakes to central Illinois 12z Thursday. Will transition Pops out of the area, making way for dry conditions area wide Thursday night through Friday night, as high pressure builds in upon northwest flow aloft, giving us relief from the humidity. There may be an uptick in diurnally enhanced cloud cover Thursday, as the H7 trof continues to move through the area, lagging a bit behind the upper level trof.
1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Latest radar imagery shows the actual cold front moving through the area. For tomorrow, temperatures will be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s as high pressure builds southward into the region. That high pressure will move across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday and by Friday afternoon should be to our east. Temperatures will trend warmer heading into/through the weekend as upper level riding spreads eastward.
A cold front Friday night could touch off a few showers Friday night but moisture is rather limited.
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Main forecast issue will be timing of convective bands associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 2. Prevailing storm motion of around 15 knots to the southwest as the affects of a broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf become more apparent.
For the evening forecast update, chances of precipitation tomorrow morning have been limited to areas of the highest terrain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed today across the higher-terrain, though significant precip is still unlikely for most locations. The low levels of the atmosphere will remain quite dry, so the primary threat from these storms will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. Temperatures across the lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon will climb to 105-110 F both afternoons, making for a moderate heat risk. Be sure to take the necessary precautions by planning outdoor activities during cooler times of the day and staying hydrated.
Upper ridging west of the area appears to weaken today as trough moves from the Great Lakes region southeast across the Mid Atlantic region. This trough will drive a weak cold front toward SC tonight. Upper ridging may be slightly weaker although it still remains warm near 10C at 700 mb. There may be a focus of thunderstorms across the north Midlands by evening as short wave trough moves across the area although the strongest dynamics expected north of the area in NC. Max temperatures likely a degree or two warmer than yesterday.
1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Upper level ridging will build northward across the area tonight through Thursday. Drier air has temporarily moved southeast into the area behind an upper level low tracking across the Northern Plains. Mainly dry conditions are expected along with warmer high temperatures Thursday. Winds will be on the increase as well Thursday as leeward troughing develops east of the Rockies. This will draw higher dew points/moisture back into the region along with the warmer air. A cold front will slip south into northern Nebraska Friday.
Low pressure over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. and Atlantic high pressure ridging west along the Florida Keys will dominate the area into this evening. The Gulf low pressure has been generating higher eastward moving swells that are creating a high risk of rip currents. Southerly winds around 15 knots with seas up to 4 feet today will begin to increase tonight as Potential Tropical Cyclone Number Two.
Otherwise, mainly high clouds expected through the remainder of the forecast period as drier air-mass filters into the region behind cold front. /Issued 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019/ Cold front extends from west central Oklahoma through far northeast Oklahoma early this morning, although the true "drier" air is sill across southeast Kansas. Then, overnight lows Friday morning will be a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 60s for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Forecast grids and hazards were based on the latest official forecast on Potential Tropical Cyclone number 2 from the National Hurricane Center and also collaboration on rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center. Although the track has shifted a little to the east, the uncertainty in the overall forecast still leads to a possibility of dangerous tropical cyclone conditions across portions of the forecast area from late Friday into the weekend, including wind, surge, and heavy rainfall threat. The main player in the sensible weather over the next few days will the eventual track and strength of the potential tropical cyclone.
Rain chances will decrease this evening as a cold front moves through, but a moist air mass will remain in place and could result in low cigs late tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 88 72 / 70 50 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 72 87 70 / 60 40 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 72 88 70 / 60 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 68 86 65 / 60 40 40 20.
Capes are progged higher with dewpoints progged to get into the lower 60s in some cases.
756 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning should become more numerous this afternoon with the approach of a cold front.
A weak mid level feature moving through a flat ridge over the Northern Rockies has produced some scattered showers and a few lightning strikes this early morning. The ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the next 48 hours.
535 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. A few high clouds across the area with building upper level ridge. Low level thermal profiles surge upward today, with highs 10-15F warmer than yesterday. Flat ridge remains across the area through the weekend.
Heat Index values could creep to the low 100s again, but showers and thunderstorms along with cloud coverage today should help keep them at bay.
307 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. A few high clouds across the area with building upper level ridge. Low level thermal profiles surge upward today, with highs 10-15F warmer than yesterday. Flat ridge remains across the area through the weekend.
Storm motions will be slow underneath the upper level high making localized flooding the biggest threat. Guidance suggests that by mid week the stubborn upper level high will begin to flatten allowing for increased storms chances across our area.
255 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The trailing edge of a cold front is brushing the coast and Umpqua Basin this morning. The Charlotte Ridge and Devils Graveyard RAWS have managed some measurable light rain and/or drizzle from this.
Stout mid/upper level ridge with 597dm center near the Four Corners and 700mb ridge of +16 to +18 Celsius temperatures will promote very warm and dry conditions today. Subtropical moisture will be drawn around the mid/upper level ridge center northeast into the CWA.
A cold front will sweep through southern Indiana and central Kentucky today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Current radar reveals a broken line of showers and storms running from Washington County, Indiana southwestward to Hancock County, KY associated with a prefrontal trough. By the time diurnal heating has a destabilizing effect, the cold front should roughly be positioned along and east of the I-65 corridor. Showers and storms should diminish with the setting sun while cooler dew points settle in across the area. While temps will be solidly in the mid/upper 80s, dewpoints will be in the lower/mid 60s so the heat index should be held in check.
A ridge of high pressure will prevail over Colorado through the period.
The high clouds will clear most areas later today, although will not necessarily add another group to the TAFs if the clearing of the high clouds is the only change expected at an airport. Relatively Cooler and Less Humid Today. Otherwise, noticeably lower heat indicies are expected today with a relatively cooler and drier air mass advecting into the area. Currently, it appears the track from Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 will stay far enough to the east of our area with no appreciable impacts expected. The mid-level ridge is progged to expand eastward as the remnants of the tropical system phases with the westerlies.
209 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Warming trend across Central California over the next few days as high pressure builds over the area.
Similar to yesterday, an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico promotes southerly flow across the area. With convection moving in later in the afternoon, expect the highest temperatures across SE Georgia and along the I-95 corridor in NE Florida.
The short term forecast will be cooler today and dry! Early this morning, there may be some valley areas that develop fog but the thinking is that overall drier air and a shallow inversion with some mixing aloft will keep fog from having much time to develop or even become very widespread. Current WV imagery and 00Z RAOBs show the an upper level anticyclone over the southwestern CONUS with a broad ridge in place with the ridge axis building into through the northern Plains. The upper trough has translated east over the Great Lakes region. The surface analysis shows surface ridging and high pressure in place over the area with a northerly component to the winds for today. This should help temperatures climb back to the low 90s in spots.
Weak high pressure influence from the western Atlc ridge will promote directional wind component of SSW to SSE at times.
/issued 253 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019/ (Today) A weak cold front will be moving south across the area through much of the morning hours. As the front passes, the wind shift to the north northeast will bring in some cooler air and knock temperatures back down into the low 90s by the afternoon.
521 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning should become more numerous this afternoon with the approach of a cold front.
afternoon, so expect high temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer compared to today. With model soundings showing mixing up to around 850mb and with the nose of warmer 850mb temperatures focused across the western half of Kansas, anticipate afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 80s to low 90s from east to west across the CWA. With mostly clear skies expected this evening, low temperatures should drop into the low/mid 60s. The broad mid-level ridge will remain anchored across the CONUS through this weekend, with the exception of Tropical Storm Barry which is forecast to track from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern U.
230 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 20Z water vapor IR satellite shows the ridge axis directly over the Rockies. With little movement in the ridge, dry conditions should continue through tonight. The higher values of CAPE will be focused further north into central Nebraska. Upper pattern will be dominated by a ridge centered over the southern plains. However, will also see weak energy moving around the ridge, through central Colorado into western Nebraska. That will translate to daily thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon through evening, with storms initiating on the higher terrain of Colorado then slowly moving eastward before dissipating after sunset.
well advertised cold front lays across northeastern Montana near Glasgow.
Upstream high pressure ridge will settle over southern WI overnight. The high pressure ridge sags south of the area on Friday, allowing dry southwest winds to increase through the day. A warmer day is expected with temperatures peaking mostly in the middle 80s. The cooler Lake Michigan waters in the 60s will likely turn winds to the SSE during the day. Although the low level convergence is weak, will maintain schc pops for thunder overnight.
It will remain very warm overnight with lows only dropping into the lower to mid 70s.
In the wake of the cold front, much drier air is in place in the mid-levels preventing a more robust convective potential. Barry will help maintain northerly flow over the region in the lower levels which will bring slightly drier air into the region.
443 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A cold front will finish crossing the region this evening.
High pressure will dominate much of the forecast resulting in gradually increasing temperatures and generally dry weather.
Once Barry lifts away from the area, mid level heights will be on rise some as the ridge begins to reestablish itself across the plains.
Otherwise, an 500 mb ridge centered over New Mexico into will provide subsidence across the south Texas through the period. Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the low pressure area in the northern Gulf of Mexico to Tropical Storm Barry.
113 PM PDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday as a ridge of high pressure aloft continues to influence the high temperatures across Central California.
1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. A few high clouds across the area with building upper level ridge. Low level thermal profiles surge upward today, with highs 10-15F warmer than yesterday. Flat ridge remains across the area through the weekend.
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Widely scattered convection has initiated near a cold front pushing southeast through central KY. Steep low level lapse rates and the high DCAPE will promote strong to locally damaging wind gusts in SPC's Marginal Risk area through 00z or so. The trough slides east of the area tonight.
Strong high pressure aloft centered near the four corners region will draw an increasingly moist air mass across Utah through the end of the week. Although the sky cover was updated to increase cloud coverage, the min temps were left untouched for now, but most likely they will need to be bumped upward, especially after reaching the highest temperatures of the year in many places today.
Subtropical ridge in the mid levels is centered over the four corners region and Tropical Storm Barry is over the North Central Gulf; leaving South Central Texas with a NNE flow throughout the vertical profile.
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Upper level ridge remains over Colorado, which will continue to bring monsoonal moisture towards the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): As the mid level trough/shear axis works south around the broad circulation of what is now Tropical Storm Barry, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue, mainly across western portions of the CWA. Temperatures will still reach above normal through Friday, although maybe slightly cooler than previous guidance due to increased cloud cover and chance of rain.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the higher elevations of Baker county this afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to rise, reaching the low to mid 90's each day.
Meanwhile, the water vapor imagery depicts that the large upper ridging in place from the Four Corners Region E into the Plains continues to expand E into the Mid and portions of the Lower MS Valley, with deep lyr dry air beginning to expand/mix S across Ern OK/much of AR/portions of NE TX/N LA, indicative by the lack of cu and increasing subsidence noted on the visible satellite imagery over these areas.
A weakening cold front was barely making itself known amongst this hour's observations. Lows will cool to the lows 70s.
High pressure remains in control across the region tonight providing quiet weather. A weak cold front moves into the region from the north during the day on Friday and will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bigger story will be increasing heat and humidity as a ridge builds over the central and western CONUS. As the ridge drops to the southeast tonight, winds will become lighter and variable, then shift to come out of the southwest Friday morning.
Upper level high pressure will remain over the four corners region through the weekend; troughs will continue moving over the western portion of the ridge into the Pacific Northwest during this period. In this pattern high temperatures will remain slightly above normal with higher heights associated with ridging over the Great Basin and Rockies. However, closer proximity of trough will help initiate daily Delta breezes with evening cooling and relief from the heat over the Delta, Srn Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Valleys.
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Temperatures have warmed to near seasonal averages, and will trend gradually warmer through the weekend.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow as high pressure suppresses any activity from forming. As for temperatures, lows tonight are anticipated to dip into the mid to upper 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern Rockies and Tropical Storm Barry treks into the Lower Mississippi Valley then eastward into the Tennessee Valley.
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A slightly cooler and less humid air mass is currently in place across the area this afternoon, as the upper level ridge has moved to the west of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the lower to middle 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Friday will be similar to today but a few degrees warmer, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days this weekend.
Most of these will be confined to the mountains and foothills, and the Cheyenne Ridge/Palmer Divide. A ridge of high pressure will prevail over Colorado through the period.
A high pressure area will move over the region tonight and result in light winds and clear skies. Forecast lows are in the low to mid 60s and given this, feel that at least some mention of fog in the forecast is warranted. Heading through the weekend, we'll start to be influenced by the upper ridge that is over the western tier of states currently.
148 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 High pressure will result in dry weather in the short term.
Today's high will approach mid 80âs in the valleys of Montana, while the lowest valleys of Idaho will become a warm low 90âs.
The Caribbean HRRR explicitly shows a few convective wind gusts near 50 knots reaching the Lower and Middle Keys.
A southeast-moving cold front crosses the region on Friday, possibly stalling over northeast NE into northwest IA by Friday night. Ahead of the front, warmer and more humid air moves in.
High temperatures reached into the low to mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining relatively low, in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Upper ridging centered over the western Atlantic will move east allowing an upper trough extending southward from the Great Lakes region to move into the region. This trough will drive a weak cold front toward SC tonight.
130 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern Rockies with subtle wave noted over northwestern WY. Surface trof is crossing the western Dakotas, with temps well into the 80s early this afternoon, and even some 90s in northeastern WY. Upper ridge will get knocked down slightly on Friday behind tonights departing wave, which should lower high temps a few degrees. Slightly better chance for storms as a more robust wave moves through the flat ridge and capping is not quite as robust. Flat upper ridge through the weekend will bring near to slightly above average temps and chances for storms as waves move through the ridge.
Dry and Cooler. The forecast, for the tonight and Friday periods, calls for dry conditions, along with temperatures cooler than those of previous days. This flow, from those directions, will help produce cooler temperatures tonight and Friday.
Widely scattered convection has initiated near a cold front pushing southeast through central KY. Steep low level lapse rates and the high DCAPE will promote strong to locally damaging wind gusts in SPC's Marginal Risk area through 00z or so. The trough slides east of the area tonight.
This feature will eventually collide with the true cold front across Western and Middle Tennessee, likely generating additional convection overnight as this frontal boundary slowly slips south and east into Alabama. Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy sky, with warm and humid conditions as lows bottom out in the lower 70s.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow as high pressure suppresses any activity from forming. As for temperatures, lows tonight are anticipated to dip into the mid to upper 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern Rockies and Tropical Storm Barry treks into the Lower Mississippi Valley then eastward into the Tennessee Valley. Quiet aviation weather will prevail through this TAF period as western Kansas will remain under the influence of a large ridge of high pressure aloft.
1046 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 In the wake of a cold front, drier air will be filtered in on north winds overnight. High pressure to the west will keep these drier north winds over the region until the center of the high settles over the CWA overnight Friday.
High pressure remains in control across the region tonight providing quiet weather. A weak cold front moves into the region from the north during the day on Friday and will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bigger story will be increasing heat and humidity as a ridge builds over the central and western CONUS. VFR conditions expected tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds as axis of high pressure moves overhead. VFR conditions expected to continue into much of Friday, with winds becoming southwesterly by morning as high pressure slides east of the area. Isolated showers and storms that could cause temporary MVFR conditions are possible Friday evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, but timing and coverage are uncertain and have left out for now.
A monsoonal surge of moisture associated with thunderstorm complexes in the Gulf of California has pushed moisture up into Northern Arizona through the day with widespread diurnal thunderstorms firing over much of the higher terrain in Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Overnight, Moisture associated with today's activity is expected to flow eastward with more showers expected to develop again over the higher terrain of the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim before spreading out across the area Friday.
20Z water vapor IR satellite shows the ridge axis directly over the Rockies. With little movement in the ridge, dry conditions should continue through tonight. The higher values of CAPE will be focused further north into central Nebraska. Upper pattern will be dominated by a ridge centered over the southern plains. However, will also see weak energy moving around the ridge, through central Colorado into western Nebraska. That will translate to daily thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon through evening, with storms initiating on the higher terrain of Colorado then slowly moving eastward before dissipating after sunset. High pressure will remain over the area tonight into the day on Friday, leaving a quiet forecast.
No other mentionable changes to current forecast, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A slightly cooler and less humid air mass is currently in place across the area this afternoon, as the upper level ridge has moved to the west of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the lower to middle 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Friday will be similar to today but a few degrees warmer, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days this weekend.