Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) The large high pressure system currently centered near the NE/IA border will be the dominant weather feature today. Biggest challenge will be stratus trapped within southeastern quadrant of the high. The models are in good agreement that the center of the high will slide to the north today which will lead to veering of the low level winds from north to northeast. Continued veering of the low level winds to a more southerly component will occur tonight as the high retreats, which should promote remaining clouds to be advected to the northwest.
Temperatures are starting off chilly in the lower to middle 20s.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE COMING WEEK WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DELIVERING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MT THROUGH ERN WY/CO WITH ROBUST WARM ADVECTION IN OUR WRN 2/3RDS ZONES. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THERMAL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE CWFA. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WX ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN NERN WY/BLKHLS AS LEE TROF PUSHES THROUGH.
A weak low pressure system will remain over the Pacific Northwest for much of the week promoting periods of light snow and rain.
COMBINATION OF MIXING AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE FA WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS HOLDING INTO THE TEENS.
EXTENDED GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT AND SNOW SHOWERS STARTING IN THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ON THUR MORNING. WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW UNDER A MUCH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANANDA IN THE GFS AND MORE NW FLOW BEHIND THE AXIS OF A STRONGER WAVE IN THE EURO.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AND UPON THEIR ARRIVAL SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO START CREEPING INTO THE PANHANDLES AND MOISTENING UP THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
251 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SNEAK UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY (INTERIOR MID 30S/COASTAL MID 40S) WITH A PARTIALLY CLOUDY DAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE RELATIVELY COOLER MIDDLE 50S. A SHALLOW TROUGH PASSAGE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY WILL PLACE EASTERN TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE FORECAST.
The latest surface analysis depicts high pressure over the plains. A nearly stalled cold front extended from Wisconsin to Southern Virginia. This will allow for a bit warmer recoveries as we lose the northerly component.
1049 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016 CONDITIONS AS OF 11AM ARE MUCH COOLER THAN ANY GUIDANCE INDICATES. H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOWS THE PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OUT WEST HAVE BEEN ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND EACH OTHER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE WEAK SIDE AND NO APPARENT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. WED MORNING THE SECOND TROUGH SHOULD BE SPREADING PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING MORE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WED NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH TAKES SOME OF ITS ENERGY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A weak low pressure system will remain over the Pacific Northwest for much of the week promoting periods of light snow and rain. Areas of low clouds are also helping to keep the lower air mass cold and will limit temperature rises today.
1132 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 A TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY.
344 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH THE FREEZING LINE SOMEWHERE ALONG INTERSTATE 12 IN LA AND I-10 IN MS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS FALL AND NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST.
The light easterly flow and mainly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling and favor min temps toward the lower end of MOS, or around 20F.
253 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 MAIN CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT.
CONCEDE THAT CERTAINLY EVEN LESSER AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY MAY CAUSE WRECKS/TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THIS AM WITH THIN ICE LAYER/MELT AND REFREEZE ON BRIDGES. SOME LES MAY LINGER INTO LATE MORNING AS TROF BECOMES INCREASING INVERTED AROUND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PIVOT. FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK. ENERGY FROM A BROAD DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER VISIBILITY FROM THE HRRR THE WORST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. AND UPON THEIR ARRIVAL SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO START CREEPING INTO THE PANHANDLES AND MOISTENING UP THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINK SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE DRY WITH MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
400 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL SHIFT EAST WITH QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SECONDARY RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING TO TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS SHOULD HELP SCOUR THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT ON TUESDAY AND WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
/ISSUED 947 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. /ISSUED 618 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016/ MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY.
304 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO ENERGY ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB TOWARD THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. BRIEF HIGH BELTED ZONAL SPLIT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WILL BUCKLE SUBSTANTIALLY LT PD AS WRN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES NWD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
FROST FORMATION OVER MORE WIND PROTECTED INLAND LOCATIONS THAT DID TOUCH FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS BASED UPON CURRENT WARMING AND TO FOLLOW AN ANALOG PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY WHERE MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 60S. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY IN THE MEAN MIDDLE 50S.
208 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
211 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.
334 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN BAJA MOVING EASTWARD.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AROUND PHILIP TO THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL LES SNOWS TO BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING IN THIS REGION AS THE SURFACE TO 850 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND WINDS DECREASE AND THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
335 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, we have ridging aloft, with a trough in southern CA and AZ moving east toward Texas. At the surface, ridging centered near the Great Lakes will shift to the southeast into New England through tomorrow, shifting our winds from light and variable or northeasterly to southeast by Tuesday morning. As the upper level trough approaches through tomorrow, low level winds will become more organized out of the south, increasing moisture. Mid and upper level clouds will also increase as lift moves in with the trough. With the additional cloud-cover, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow as far as afternoon highs, but slightly warmer tonight with increasing clouds and southeasterly winds picking up.
307 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA RESTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED A LOW CLOUD DECK SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
352 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging pushing slowly east across the Central Plains through Monday night. Considering the dry air mass across the high plains and a weak flow aloft, precip will remain absent from western Kansas through the period. Highs are expected to reach near 40F across central Kansas to the lower to mid 40s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Slightly warmer low temperatures are likely Monday night as the low level flow becomes more southerly. Look for lows only down into the 20s(F) as the warmer air begins to slowly lift into western Kansas.
Despite the WAA and a modest veering profile in the lowest 3kft lift is neutral at worst so conds should stay dry tonight. On Tuesday, upper ridging will shift east of the area, giving way to southwesterly flow as the first of several short wave troughs approaches the central Plains. Tuesday itself should be in the low 40s, although with increasing high cloud cover through the day.
121 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 A TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY.
249 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL DRIVE THE ANSWER TO BOTH OF THE ABOVE ISSUES. FORECAST THUS RETRACTS THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SENECA AND CAYUGA COUNTIES WITH SOME TRAILING BANDS OFF SENECA INTO THE WATKINS GLEN AND ELMIRA AREAS. THIS PERIOD OF FORECAST TIME LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKING A FEW DAYS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING WOULD SUPPORT PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE DENSE FOG MATERIALIZES. WITH READINGS WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW 40S TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
1235 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 AVIATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK.
Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be a tad warmer than Monday, but still seasonable.
326 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW DEGREES HIGHER SOUTH AND COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ.
256 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 Low level moisture trapped underneath an area of high pressure has kept skies mostly cloudy during the afternoon. As high pressure exits the region, winds turn to the south and increase tomorrow between 10 and 15 mph sustained. This will help lift and scatter the stratus deck somewhat, allowing highs to be much warmer near 40 degrees.
1022 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016 WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR COMPOSITE REVEALED A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH FROM A CENTRAL MT LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL WY. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AREA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY LULL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE FAR NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING WITH THESE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPANDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD DUBUQUE.
Low level warm air advection have trended temperatures warmer than previously forecast holding off any snow for the time being. For counties south of this, snowfall amounts will be minimal given the warmer temperatures just above and at the surface. Rain amounts would be light with any afternoon precipitation and snow (mainly in north central Kansas in the afternoon) would not accumulate due to the warmer surface temps.
Deepening low pressure over south central Kansas is cranking up the wind machine, with southeast winds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts in excess of 35 mph. Wind speeds will gradually relax heading into this evening with a cooler airmass entering from the northwest. A few showers/flurries will be possible across central Missouri overnight as temperatures drop to the around the freezing mark.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
/ISSUED 352 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ Potent upper level low continues to lift northeast across the corridor of enhanced lift now in place over northeast OK will also quickly shift northeast of the area later this morning. Both RUC/HRRR have consistently forecast dew points mixing into the lower 20s across SE OK and into NW AR. Wind speeds will be somewhat lighter but still meet the low end of criteria. Cold front will sweep across the area late today with colder airsettling in for tonight.
1023 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE.
WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH SEAS.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.
WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THIS FOG ALONG WITH THE LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE HAVE PREVENTED US FROM WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT OVER INLAND ZONES HIGHS MAY QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOW 80S LATER IN THE DAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT STARTING AROUND 06Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY.
555 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Water vapor imagery showing strong negatively tilted upper trough spinning across the Southern High Plains this morning.
/issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains so have issued a wind warning for there as well. The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande.
/ISSUED 338 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW STRETCHES ACROSS CROSS COUNTY ARKANSAS TO NEAR SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. A WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS IS SITTING SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG THUS SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WOULD NOT BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
328 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
425 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 (Today and Tonight) Another breezy day is in store for West Central Texas today, along with cooler temperatures.
Clouds have increased across NorCal overnight as a rather weak weather system slides down in northwesterly flow ahead of the building ridge over the eastern Pacific. The second system will move through Wednesday, and while it is forecast to be a little stronger, it too will be moving through the ridge and will be dampened.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS EASTERN UTAH AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS SEE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
Despite the cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal today and warmer than yesterday.
the cooler mins will be across west central Kansas. 00z NAM and GFS soundings late day continues to support highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. A few upper 30s will be possible near the Oklahoma border while to coolest highs will be located where the higher snowfall is expected.
WITH INSTABILITY STILL IN QUESTION OVER NCNTRL AND NE LA/SCNTRL AND SE AR AS THE 150+KT SWRLY UPPER JET BEGINS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BENEATH THE NW OK CLOSED LOW EJECTING NE ACROSS KS. BUT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SE INTO THE REGION. LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW THAT WILL EJECT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL DIG SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
713 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 59 62 35 / 30 100 80 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 60 63 34 / 20 100 90 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 59 61 34 / 20 100 80 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 52 60 33 / 10 70 100 10 NC.
AN APPARENT PREFRONTAL TROF. WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. CAA WILL CONTINUE WED AND INTO THU AS AN UPPER TROF AXIS TRANSLATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WED MORNING.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE FLURRIES. WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PROGRESSING FURTHER NORTHEAST TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO WARNING AS A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WERE WELL OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. NOW THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER ON THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF COLORADO AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALL FLURRIES SHOULD END AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA.
552 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO NERN COLORADO. WINDS ON THE PLAINS HAVE TAKEN ON A NWLY COMPONENT AND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM COLORADO. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NEXT 12 HOURS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY MOST AREAS WILL NOT FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS WARMING ALOFT AS CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PLAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WARNING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE DROPPED SHORTLY.
300 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A DEEP AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE MIDWEST. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES. WHERE THE LOWLANDS JUST WEST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.