Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL SPELL BIG CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO TRICKLE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH THEN PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
DENSE FOG IS IN A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OVER VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL BEND.
702 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
Cold front has exited the southeastern Big Bend this morning, with northwest flow and clearing skies in place across the entire region.
641 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/ MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN THE HIGH WILD FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT DAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL LAG THIS FEATURE BY A DAY OR TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY.
WITH THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
724 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
1201 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROF IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
1052 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
613 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 NO CHANGES WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND DRY VFR DOMINATING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WE TRENDED TOWARDS THE LATEST WARMER GUIDANCE. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY COURTESY OF AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS SOME MID- UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Dry conditions will continue for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs today slightly warmer than yesterday. Thus, highs today will likely be a couple degrees warmer, especially given sunny skies and relatively light surface winds.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS IT RUNS INTO AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGHING AND BETTER MOISTURE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN.
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SKIES SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.
1233 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
Weak high pressure of 1019 mb over the Ozarks will drift east into the mid MS river valley and KY into tonight providing fair weather to the area. After a clear/chilly night tonight with lows dipping into the lower to middle 40s, high pressure will shift east of the region and southwesterly winds will bring much warmer conditions back into the area on Thursday. The warm-up will be short-lived however, as a fast-moving cold front swings through Thursday evening.
1030 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
946 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN THE LOWER 10 PCT FOR DATE PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H850/H925 TEMPS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED A COOL START TO THE DAY. HUNTSVILLE AND GUNTERSVILLE WERE A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER SPOTS.
1048 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2015 ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE ON TAP THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
CLEAR SKIES ABOVE CONTINUE AS WELL WITH VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MOST OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES.
429 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 An upper level ridge will begin to strengthen over the next several days bringing a return to warm and dry weather. The ridge is expected to shift east of the area by the weekend which will bring increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and a chance of rain. Satellite reveals a westerly flow regime over the forecast area which according to all the latest model data will become a strengthening ridge through the next 36 to 48 hours. Winds will take a northerly bias today as high pressure builds over southern Canada and shift to the northeast tonight and Thursday becoming noticeably breezy down the Purcell trench and into the Columbia Basin.
Upper trough axis across central OK through north central TX will continue to move east this afternoon. Have opted to add a snow mention across portions of southeast OK that mainly includes the higher terrain. with some freezing drizzle possible through the day.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST GIVING MOST OF THE CWA A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR BY 18Z FRIDAY. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH NOW OUT ALONG THE 130W MERIDIAN OFF THE PACIFIC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING. TEMPERATURES COOLING AND FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
1200 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 High pressure being pushed out to the north as the developing storm system along the Gulf continues to deepen. A ridge of high pressure is currently in place at the surface, along with neutral upper-level flow. 548 dm 500 mb low over north central KS will weaken a bit as it moves east across northern MO tonight, while a new cutoff upper level low develops/deepens over the lower MS river valley tonight. 00Z forecast models are pretty consistent in deepening low pressure form LA at sunset today ne into northern AL by Friday morning and to the Carolina coast Friday evening.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE EAST COAST.
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER OUR N-CNTL ZONES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOTED EXTENDING SWWD INTO COASTAL SERN TX. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
Temperatures Friday will be similar today due to the impacts of snow cover and lingering cloud cover, then warmer temperatures are expected as return flow brings warmer air into the region for the weekend.
A RIDGE WAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER KANSAS CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THAT RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
1036 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EAST OVR THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. WHILE AN AN UPR RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES INTO CO FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
328 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL ALLOW MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE SHOULD A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY SOME LES. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWVS TO MOVE THROUGH THE N CNTRL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES.
WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET AT ONSET. WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED. THINK THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN EVENTS CAN CAUSE MORE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS THAN HEAVIER EVENTS. THINK MOST OF THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU. MID/UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THU EVENING THROUGH SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
1254 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS LOW LAKE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS THE STRONG LOW TARGETING THE EAST COAST SLIDES EASTWARD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS OVER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
301 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARM UP.
TEMPS IN THE MID/LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARMING UP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS THE N-S JET OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. VALLEY TEMPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN MTN TOP TEMPS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AS STRONG RIDGE AT MIDLVLS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TRANSLATING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD DUE TO TWO AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION. COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING.
ALSO STUCK THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER A LARGER AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ADDED SOME FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH THE SNOW AS IT ENDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO END THE WEEK AS THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY.
224 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. ENHANCED SATURATION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE MID- ATLANTIC AND HELP INDUCE A SECONDARY STRONG AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTIONS OF ACCUMULATING LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOWFALL IN THE CORRIDOR WEST OF THE RIDGES OVER MORGANTOWN SPECIFICALLY. OUTSIDE THE RIDGES COULD DIFFER WITHIN A FEW MILES OR MORE OF THE FORECAST.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN ND THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY GROUND ACCUMULATIONS AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BELIEVE WARM FRONT WILL NOT ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH AS ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL BE A SVR WEATHER THREAT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 7.
HOWEVER, TEMPS AND DEW PTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS RIGHT NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER TO ALLOW FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW TO FALL.
The big story this afternoon for GA is the surface winds behind a cold front which passed through around sunrise this morning.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASE A BIT FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. /ISSUED 524 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. /ISSUED 232 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BI-CENTRIC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. A FAIRLY STRONG 800 WIND MAX IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. AFTER THE WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. A QUIETER AND WARMER TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. AS AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Friday) Deep trof with two very distinct vortices is continuing to dig across the eastern Plains. Our CWFA is on the fringes of influence of both of these vortices, and dry low level air is being pulled from the east-northeast across the area as the surface reflection of the trof deepens over Louisiana. Should see temperatures continue to moderate with lows tonight generally in the upper teens and highs Friday in the low 30s. We might even break through the freezing mark across our southern zones.
950 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
350 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 (Tonight and Friday) The upper trough over central and eastern Texas this afternoon will move into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Within this trough a closed low is developing over northeastern Texas, and will track across northern Louisiana tonight. Temperatures will be colder tonight with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s across some of our western and northwestern counties, to the lower 30s elsewhere. A broad upper ridge will build over the heart of the nation, during the next 48 hours.
100 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
1157 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 /18Z TAFS/ UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
1034 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 THE PATTERN OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG THE LEFT COAST BEING TEMPORARILY DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THE PACIFIC JET LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST. IN THE SHORT TERM THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN THE TRANSITORY PHASE MOVING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS THIS RIDGE WILL BE DIRTY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LIKE THE LAST FEW HAVE BEEN.
CHILLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAN DECOUPLE. SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK AND LEAST LIKELY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SO TEMPERATURES TRENDED FROM COOLER WEST TO NOT AS COOL EAST. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY EDGING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALLOWING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO TRANSLATE INTO POSITION OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A COOLER SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM WYOMING TO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50.
THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT FUSE THREAT WITHIN THESE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS RACING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA.
334 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL END INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
1203 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES BY 21Z OVER THE INLAND SITES AND 22S TO 23Z AT KLBX AND KGLS.
THESE CLOUDS WERE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY THAT WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THEN LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHRTWV HEADS SOUTH AND PHASES WITH STG UPR TROF MOVG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THOSE WERE A BIT WARMER THAN THE BROAD- BASED CONSENSUS GRIDS.
Freezing drizzle that occurred this morning over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas has largely dissipated for now, but it is suspected that some re-development can be expected later this afternoon and especially this evening. In addition, northeast to northerly surface winds will increase as well as low pressure deepens across the Deep South. These increasing low level wind fields tend to increase the magnitude of collision/coalescence going in the lower atmosphere. Clouds will likely stay in place most of the day tomorrow, and with continued cold air advection, temps will struggle to reach freezing in many spots.
THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL ALSO HAMPER THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
408 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS TRAVELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. STRONG WEST-VEERING-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN TO WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STRONG MID-LAYER NORTHERLIES WILL MIX DOWN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOCAL BAY AND GULF WATERS. NICE CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT AS A 5H RIDGE AXIS TRAVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
Strengthening winds aloft, and increasing instability as the upper ridge moves east, will combine to mix some of this warmth to the surface.
244 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 BROAD/WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS INLAND TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
323 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 Ongoing precip across SE OK will continue to track eastward through the evening associated with mid level trough axis. Precip type will largely be either freezing drizzle or light snow with any measurable snow chances likely confined to the highest terrain of far SE OK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO WESTERN NE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN NE. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCH EAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WARM FRONT MOVES EAST. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHWEST SD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND 3-4MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GRADIENT/BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 30KTS SUGGESTS BREEZY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1009 MB) IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WITH A LENGTHY WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
336 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KEMP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY END. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO STAY AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. EVEN WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MID/UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH ABOUT 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY DOING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT 18Z TODAY THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED OUR CWA AND STRONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.