Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite plenty of sunshine, Wednesday afternoon highs still look several degrees cooler than what we experienced today. Later tonight, a dry cold front will move across the area shifting winds to light NW. Daytime Wednesday will bring sunny skies at all sites with north winds near 10KT as dry high pressure begins moving into the region.
The short term period through sunrise Thursday will remain fairly quiet as weak high pressure looks to take hold centered to our south, with peaks of sunshine amidst partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Highs top out in the low to mid 30s Thursday afternoon.
917 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Current regional surface analysis shows much of the SE US is wedged between a storm system pushing off the lower Atlantic coast and an area of high pressure behind a dry cold front over the Plains. For locations that could see fog, expect temps to hover near the freezing fog threshold. While not expecting significant fog coverage, let along much freezing fog, will monitor overnight. Northwest flow will persist aloft as the ridge to our west slowly moves eastward. At the surface, high pressure will settle in across the region, leaving dry and seasonably mild conditions. This southerly surface flow will begin to filter warmer and more moist Gulf air into the area and lead to highs warming into the upper 50s and keep lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s tonight. For now, lows will fall into the lower 30s & some spots could reach near the freezing mark, but dense fog or freezing fog potential looks unlikely at the moment. Wednesday: Mean trough/jet energy will dig into the Pacific NW & Intermountain W Wed, keeping persistent NW dry flow. Low-level thermo ridge will build through, keeping N-NE winds, & nice warm, dry & mostly sunny aftn. /DC/ The forecast period begins with a deep high pressure ridge building from the west and impacting the southeastern region with warmer and drier conditions.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will trend cooler with chances for light snow. Evening update: radar is starting to fill in with snow reports along the Highway 2 corridor from near Wenatchee out into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane/C'dA area, as northeastward. The afternoon does still indicate some push above freezing, to the mid to upper 30s to near 40 in spots.
A dry continental airmass will be reinforced tonight by a weak cold front that quickly moves through southern Missouri. This will allow for one more cold night of temperatures below freezing. For Wednesday, look for temperatures to warm back into the low to mid 50s.
1136 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Cloud cover this morning delayed the warm-up for the area, but clearing skies under high pressure this afternoon has definitely made up for it, as we had to bump forecast highs upwards this afternoon. Dry northwest winds along with the high pressure system have produced near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, but those conditions will improve as temperatures start to decrease and the high continues southeast. Wednesday will be warmer with southwest winds keeping temperatures up from today.
Hennig (This afternoon through Wednesday night) It's noticeably warmer out there this afternoon despite increasing high clouds, with breezy westerly to southwesterly downsloping winds helping temperatures reach into the 60s and lower 70s areawide. Dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of a low amplitude ridge to the west and continued downsloping surface flow will yield an even warmer day on Wednesday, with highs across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas expected to top out around 15 degrees above normal in the 70s for most, with a return to the lower 80s possible for portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
Aloft - cyclonic flow over the eastern states and the Gulf of Mexico today shifts out over the Atlantic Thu as a ridge centered in Mexico builds northward over the US plains. Surface - high pressure down the Mississippi Valley to the west Gulf of Mexico slides eastward and becomes centered along the southeast US coast. Low cloudiness and light patches of rain will continue to spread onshore the remainder of tonight then start to erode shortly after sunrise as drier and cooler air moves.
Some fog has developed overnight near bodies of water, and with a few locations below freezing in those areas, some freezing fog will be possible. Use caution if traveling early this morning over bridges and overpasses along bodies of water as some freezing fog may bring a few slick spots. Cold front is working its way through the area, and that will help bring colder and drier air to the mid state which should limit more widespread fog development. Highs today will be cooler, only in the 40s, but southerly flow will return Thursday and see a stronger ramp up in high temps into the weekend.
Winds will remain in the 10 to 15 mph range to the northeast of the trough with southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range southwest of this trough.
Concur with deterministic output that developing upper level zonal flow over much of the CONUS during the period will contribute to a gradual deepening of low pressure over the Plains, and a gradual increase in onshore flow/near surface moisture over the CWA. Do not anticipate water levels reaching 2ft MSL during the high tidal cycles.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s this morning with patchy fog being reported in some locations, mainly along the rivers. Highs today will reach the lower 50s across the north with middle to upper 50s south. Light south winds on Thursday will produce warmer afternoon temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some high clouds will drift across Alabama on Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southern United States.
As such, afternoon highs in southeastern North Dakota could potentially reach the lower 30s, whereas the central Red River Valley and areas to the north and east will only see lower to middle 20s.
937 AM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 The area of low pressure and cold front that moved through the area yesterday continues to pull away from Florida. High pressure is building into the southeast U. behind this front helping to usher in some cooler and drier air this morning. High pressure building into the southeast U. This high pressure slips eastward off the eastern seaboard and ridges across Florida by allowing for decreasing winds and seas through the weekend.
Initial northwesterly low and mid-level flow behind the cold front will advect cooler air into the region, so despite insolation under the clear sky, temperatures will be several degrees cooler today than yesterday. Highs will peak near normal in the low to mid 40s. By this afternoon the low-level ridge axis will push past the CWA, throwing the region back into southwesterly flow. This flow will persist through Thursday as the low-level ridge sets up over the Southeast CONUS. Robust WAA along this low-level flow will kick off several days of toasty temperatures, the first of which being Thursday. MRM By Thursday evening the mid-level flow will become westerly as the ridge currently over the western CONUS elongates and shifts over the central CONUS.
Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a deep trough over the eastern CONUS with an amplified upstream ridge situated over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was in control over the region.
Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a deep over the eastern CONUS with an amplified upstream ridge situated over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was in control over the region.
402 AM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Latest GOES mid-level water vapor imagery reveals a plume of dry air filtering in over South Florida in the wake of a passing upper trough and attendant downstream frontal cyclone. The warmer, muggy conditions experienced the past few days will quickly transition in more pleasant, cooler weather. Temperatures this morning may reach as low as the mid 50s over the interior and lower 60s along the coast, while maximum temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s. The coldest temperatures in relation to the recent cold front will preside Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as minimum temperatures over the interior dip into the low/mid 40s over the interior, and low/mid 50s for metro/coastal locations.
A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the forecast area through Thursday. Because of the shallow mixing depths, didn't stray too far from the model blend, but did add in some warmer MOS, especially out west. Nonetheless, warmer than normal highs are expected through Thursday. For tonight some energy advects through the upper ridge.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge centered near Baja today will extend northward across the Western US putting the region on the east side of the ridge. This ridge will build eastward over the region on Thursday. Marfa had the lowest temp in the area with 19 degrees and Colorado City the highest with 77 degrees. With high pressure increasing the unseasonably warm temps will also be increasing.
The last two days, afternoon temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees warmer than most of the guidance and the official forecast was too cool. For example the ECMWF is showing 850mb temperatures only slightly cooler than the surface temperature, which is not reasonable given the dry and sunny pattern. Opted to go with the warmer GFS 2 meter temperatures with only minor modifications. The weather regime will remain rather quiescent into Thursday, so again opted to go with warmer temperatures.
Early morning temperatures will start below freezing, but by noon we should be above seasonal normal temperatures, and by mid afternoon about 10 degrees above daily normal temperatures. Thursday will continue the warm up process, with morning lows starting just a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal highs.
Water vapor imagery over the CONUS shows deep troughing over the east and ridging to the west. Some high level clouds over the ridge axis can be expected today, but otherwise generally clear skies. Warmer temperatures at the surface are also expected, with highs up to the mid 40s in the far southwest, 20s and 30s northwest to southeast, and teens around the Turtle Mountains.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over western MO/eastern KS with Lee troughing also in place. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place today across the Plains which will allow Lee troughing to also remain present. At the same time there will be a northern stream impulse that will track across the Northern Plains Fri morning/afternoon and will attempt to allow some cooler air to sink into the Central Plains. The GFS is quite a bit warmer than the NAM for both Thu and Fri as the NAM keeps the warmer air further to the southwest. In the wake of this system, cooler temps are expected as we start the work week but should still be above seasonal normals. Strengthening low pressure across the High Plains will support breezy/gusty south to southwest winds from late morning through afternoon.
[Key Messages] *Dry conditions with warming temperatures through mid-week [Discussion] Yet another quiet day is expected for the area as high pressure quickly moves by. It will be slightly cooler vs. A warm front will also follow, arriving across the CWA Thursday morning.
A much quieter start to Wednesday than we saw yesterday, as high pressure continues to build across the Midwest & MS Valley dragging down the FL peninsula. Much cooler and drier air has arrived with highs today nearly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the mid to upper 60s. More of the same tonight, although much drier air will limit clouds and fog and chilly lows in the low 40s north of I-4 to mid/upper 40s southward.
Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday. Later tonight there is a weak cold front that moves through and turns winds to the northwest for a few hours, but they soon turn back to the southwest and temperatures will remain warm for Thursday.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over western MO/eastern KS with Lee troughing also in place. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place today across the Plains which will allow Lee troughing to also remain present. At the same time there will be a northern stream impulse that will track across the Northern Plains Fri morning/afternoon and will attempt to allow some cooler air to sink into the Central Plains. The GFS is quite a bit warmer than the NAM for both Thu and Fri as the NAM keeps the warmer air further to the southwest. In the wake of this system, cooler temps are expected as we start the work week but should still be above seasonal normals.
Today is the day that high pressure will gradually give way to a prolonged period of U/L troughiness across the Pacific NW. These disturbances will help establish and maintain a long wave trough over the western states through the forecast period.
332 AM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 Upper ridging is building across the Northern Plains this morning, with high clouds spilling over the ridge and into the CWA. Warmer air has advected into Campbell County as of 3am, with temps rising into the upper 30s to low 40s. Warmer air will continue to push northeast into the rest of the CWA. Models are still trying to resolve details on how a large upper trough stretching across the western CONUS will impact the area. There is a possibility of some snow Fri night, as a strong wave crosses the region and a cold front pushes in, but much uncertainty still remains due to poor model agreement.
A warm front will lift across the region for today, with a chance for light snow. A strong cold front will drop southeast on Thursday night. A warm front will lift across the region today, bringing increasing cloud cover and a period of light snow to area terminals this afternoon and evening.
318 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Some fog has developed overnight near bodies of water, and with a few locations below freezing in those areas, some freezing fog will be possible. Use caution if traveling early this morning over bridges and overpasses along bodies of water as some freezing fog may bring a few slick spots. Cold front is working its way through the area, and that will help bring colder and drier air to the mid state which should limit more widespread fog development. Highs today will be cooler, only in the 40s, but southerly flow will return Thursday and see a stronger ramp up in high temps into the weekend.
Again seeing some ptchy fog/freezing fog in the usual low lying areas. Predawn temps ranged fm the 30s to the lower 40s.
Latest GOES mid-level water vapor imagery reveals a plume of dry air filtering in over South Florida in the wake of a passing upper trough and attendant downstream frontal cyclone. The warmer, muggy conditions experienced the past few days will quickly transition in more pleasant, cooler weather. Temperatures this morning may reach as low as the mid 50s over the interior and lower 60s along the coast, while maximum temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s. The coldest temperatures in relation to the recent cold front will preside Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as minimum temperatures over the interior dip into the low/mid 40s over the interior, and low/mid 50s for metro/coastal locations.
Huston Today is the day that high pressure will gradually give way to a prolonged period of U/L troughiness across the Pacific NW. These disturbances will help establish and maintain a long wave trough over the western states through the forecast period.
Broad upper ridge, currently centered near the Baja Peninsula, and resulting nwly flow aloft will dominate area wx. Other than some passing mid/high level clouds, dry and increasingly warmer conditions will prevail.
Current early AM temperatures did fall to and right above freezing so it's not entirely impossible that patchy frost formed along the northern fringe of the CWA. Tomorrow, temps will hike up to the lower 70s along with breezy southerly flow thanks to a tightened pressure gradient.
VFR is expected to prevail through the period amid a clear/mostly clear sky and light SFC winds BECMG southeasterly as high pressure slides east of the area. Current early AM temperatures did fall to and right above freezing so it's not entirely impossible that patchy frost formed along the northern fringe of the CWA. Tomorrow, temps will hike up to the lower 70s along with breezy southerly flow thanks to a tightened pressure gradient.
Previous discussion: A warm front will lift across the region for today, with a chance for light snow. A strong cold front will drop southeast on Thursday night. A warm front will lift across the region today, bringing increasing cloud cover and a period of light snow or vicinity showers to area terminals this afternoon and evening.
230 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A trough a day is keeping Santa away.
Aloft, the trough located over the southeast CONUS continues to track off to the east- northwest through the period. Northwest flow aloft then settles into the region as ridging begins building into the region behind this feature through Thursday. At the surface, high pressure builds into the area from the west, tracking east across the region through Thursday. For temperatures through the period, expect highs to range from the upper 50s to around 60 degrees generally north of the Highway 84 corridor, with low 60s along and southeast of Highway 84. Expecting a majority of the area to get near or just below freezing outside of immediate coastal zones. Currently, expecting highs on Thursday to reach the low to mid 60s for most locations.
120 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 A cold air mass settles across the region tonight with dry conditions through Thursday as high pressure moves across from the west. Warmer, but at times wet, weather then moves in for Christmas Eve and Day. After a slow warming start for Thursday, afternoon temperatures rebound into the 40s across the lowlands and into the 30s for mountains. High pressure remains in control for a fleeting time at the start of the forecast period as the upper level pattern morphs and opens the door for disturbances to encroach heading into the holiday weekend.
High pressure will build southeast toward the region Tonight, as an inverted trough develops over the coastal waters. However, could see a few more clouds at the coast due to the trough. However, the stirring winds from pressure gradient between high and trough will make the frost coverage questionable. There is enough of a gradient to keep winds up through a good part of the night, which would keep the lowest levels mixed, limiting potential for frost to settle. For Thursday, the high pressure ridge will build just to the north northwest. The inverted trough is expected to flatten during the afternoon. The presence of this trough in the morning will lead to a few more clouds over mainly coastal NE FL.
Think it is worth noting though, that overall moisture in the lowest levels remains largely limited, suggesting that coverage should remain patchy at best. Otherwise, look for another quiet day to prevail tomorrow as a warm front lifts northeastward across the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A mid-level trough will continue to move off the east coast of the US through the period as high pressure builds across the region. Thursday highs will top out in the low to mid 80s away from the coast with lows Thursday night in the 60s expected across the CWA. Southeasterly winds will pick up slightly, especially along the coast, on Thursday due to an increasing pressure gradient as low pressure forms across the Central Plains.
After another chilly start, temps are rebounding nicely and look on track to reach afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures much cooler currently, with highs expected to only reach the low to mid 80s. Dry air will lead to low dewpoints and thus temperatures will fall to the low 40s north of I-4, mid 40s across the rest of the interior, and upper 40s/low 50s for coastal locations. Guidance came in a few degrees cooler than previous forecasts, mainly for the rural areas south of Orlando, so adjusted accordingly. Cool and dry forecast continues into Thursday as high pressure builds across the Appalachians.
314 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure over the Great Plains will build eastward across the mid Atlantic states on Thursday.
1151 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 The forecast area is situated between the polar and subtropical jet streams today as yesterday's trough scoots into the eastern CONUS. There still looks to be a weak secondary short wave trough that will move across the northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. After this system moves by, the upper air pattern will return to a quasi zonal flow with troughing along or just off the West Coast. Several weak short wave troughs look to get ejected and then move quickly across the Midwest bringing with them some chances for light precipitation.
200 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 After seasonable temperatures today and tonight, a warm front will lift up across our area tonight, bringing a quick return of south winds.
1115 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 (The rest of today ) A dry northwest flow prevails aloft over the Plains between ridging over the West and troughing in the East. A lee trough will strengthen over the High Plains to our west, with southerly flow over our area. Stayed close to previous forecast which was a tad warmer than blended guidance and closer to MOS guidance.
(The rest of today ) A dry northwest flow prevails aloft over the Plains between ridging over the West and troughing in the East. A lee trough will strengthen over the High Plains to our west, with southerly flow over our area. Stayed close to previous forecast which was a tad warmer than blended guidance and closer to MOS guidance.
1028 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South today. /issued 253 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes back through the Ohio Valley and back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the dry cold front this morning. Short term models indicate the mid-level flow will become nearly zonal by Christmas Eve with temperatures moderating into the lower 70s.
High clouds will increase tonight and winds will briefly shift northwesterly as a very weak cold front moves in.
1006 AM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 Upper ridging is building across the Northern Plains this morning, with high clouds spilling over the ridge and into the CWA. Warmer air has advected into Campbell County as of 3am, with temps rising into the upper 30s to low 40s. Warmer air will continue to push northeast into the rest of the CWA. Models are still trying to resolve details on how a large upper trough stretching across the western CONUS will impact the area. There is a possibility of some snow Fri night, as a strong wave crosses the region and a cold front pushes in, but much uncertainty still remains due to poor model agreement.
330 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Discussion/Marine --Light Snow on Thursday, Mainly North of I-96-- Isentropic lift north of an approaching warm front combined with jet exit region support brings some light snow for Thursday.
219 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure over the Great Plains will build eastward across the mid Atlantic states on Thursday.
306 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight into Thursday. With cloud cover and warmer air in place, overnight low temperatures will be a little warmer in the 30s to around 40.
Jaja A low level trough centered in the Canadian Plains will help keep 850 mb winds oriented from the southwest as it tracks east across the US-Canadian border.
230 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 A long wave trough extends southward into Florida, with dry and stable air descending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints near 60. The forecast challenge for the next few days will be the high and low temperatures and timing the diminished breezes.