Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A MODERATE TO STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SAT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO GOOD MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ON SAT DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
STILL SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES THAT STRATUS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE DENVER AREA UNDER A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE NORTHWEST.
The low level clouds across parts of eastern MO and southwest IL will advect southeast of the area early this evening, with just some mid-high level clouds spreading back into the area later tonight. The low levels will be initially dry Saturday afternoon into the evening, but should began to moisten as the forcing increases.
TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE THE LOWEST AROUND THE MID COAST AT 03Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG.
EXPECTING A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TO FORM BY MORNING BUT EXPECTING AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF DENVER TO BE FOG FREE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FM THE NORTHWEST.
428 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS WRAP BRIEFLY WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTIES. LEE TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS BORDER ON SAT AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
316 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 A STRONGER PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE STAGNANT WEST COAST RIDGE. EAST COAST TROUGH PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET IS PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN CORE OF THE JET AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. IT'S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
653 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
1007 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE.
COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST OREGON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRANT COUNTY.
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
533 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 Cold high pressure is streaming down the Plains currently with the center of the high passing to our east.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN EVER-SO-GRADUALLY OOZING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS FINALLY CLEARED ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S COLD FROPA.
910 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 THE ONLY CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS HIGHER DEW POINTS POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING LEVY COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
Beyond this forecast time conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate as moisture increases and deepens over the area head of the next low pressure system.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S.
558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 13/07Z. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS. OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
549 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN HOWEVER THE SATURATION PROCESS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WITH RESIDUAL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
911 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 The center of arctic high pressure was near Sioux Falls, SD this evening. Beyond this forecast time conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate as moisture increases and deepens over the area head of the next low pressure system.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN EVER-SO-GRADUALLY OOZING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS FINALLY CLEARED ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE LAKES SHOULD MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE RIDGES IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES.
641 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
939 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 A WARMER EVENING THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS 66 WHILE THE DEWPOINT IS 62. WITH THE DEW POINTS HOLDING ONTO THE LOWER 60S WOULD SUGGEST THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 60 OVERNIGHT. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TREK NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A MORE ROBUST RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
411 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TODAY. A RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS EXTENDING SOUTH OF A DEEP LOW ACROSS THE JAMES BAY REGION.
Another cold front will begin to impact northwestern Montana and north-central Idaho overnight tonight, with a mix of valley rain and mountain snow.
A cold front is currently moving through the area this afternoon with a quick hitting cold snap for the weekend. Clouds will increase on Saturday and temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing over southwestern Missouri and will be in the middle 20s across central Missouri.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVANCING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AND MOST AREAS ARE SEEING A NICE WARM UP DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.
614 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
644 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front will pass through the region tonight with continued precipitation chances and slightly lower snow levels.
Across the area today we are seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS THE MAIN AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER TROUGH FROM 500- 200 MB SITUATED FROM A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUT NEARLY 40 KNOT WINDS AT 250 MB ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/ SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FEED INSTABILITY TO THE POINT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SQUEEZES THE AREA INTO A FAIRLY TIGHT CORRIDOR OF RIDGING. IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS MICRO-RIDGE FOR QUITE A PERIOD. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. OWING TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE HAVE ALREADY GAINED THIS WEEK FROM RAINFALL. IT WOULD SEEM THE AIR CONDITIONERS MAY GET A PRETTY QUICK START OWING TO DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
CLOSED CIRCULATION EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
/ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/ A WEAK TROUGH AXIS LOCATED FROM DALLAS TO NEAR AUSTIN THEN BENDS SE TOWARD VICTORIA TEXAS THEN EAST WELL OUT OVER THE GULF. THE PORTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY REACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THURSDAY.
INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. BUT THE HIGHER MUCAPE COMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
A H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE ONTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP WEAKEN THE HIGH.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION LATER THE DAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. BUT THE HIGHER MUCAPE COMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BRING ROUGH SURF. MID-UPPER TROUGHING JUST OFF OF THE ECFL COAST THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA REMAINS FORECAST TO LIFT NNE'WRD THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH L/M 60S AREAWIDE FORECAST. OCNL ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM THE ATLC AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE ECFL COAST. CONDS BCMG VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE FROM NE FL. THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NNE'WARD THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH FORECAST WINDS RANGING FROM NNW-NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BACKING TO NW TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DRIFT EWRD. WHILE THE AXIS OF SAID TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE COLORADO PLAINS. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REMAINS IN A DRY SLOT. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN USUAL BUT RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
1103 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THU.
1005 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING TO SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING. MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE RIDGES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP A BIT MORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTH. THURSDAY MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING THE LOW DOWN THE STATE.
Low pressure dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains through the end of the week.
724 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
925 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DOMINATE MIDSOUTH WEATHER TODAY WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS CAPPED AND MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. THE DYNAMICS FROM UPPER LOW WILL FEED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER VALLEYS TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN AND WEISER VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU. WITH THE WARM MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58.
655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS NEARLY REACHED THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH. THINK THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue to evolve today as the Ozarks region remains sandwiched between upper level ridging in the eastern U. and a large upper level trough out west. The showers and embedded thunder will spread slowly eastward across eastern Kansas and into far western Missouri this morning as the the vorticity lobe lifts north and the low level jet veers a bit. Expect convection to increase again tonight across the plains as a series of disturbances continue to track north on the eastern periphery of the western trough and the low level jet strengthens. The unsettled weather pattern will persist the remainder of the week into the weekend as the upper level trough out west continues to evolve and eventually shift to the east.
AND NOT JUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND BASED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LIGHT 5-10 MPH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND WEAK BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U. WINDS UNDER THIS RIDGE EXPECTED AGAIN TO GO MAINLY CALM AROUND SUNSET.
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/ SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW WARMER SPOTS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST RADAR LOOP/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 50-75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH TNGT. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JAX BEACH BY LATE TNGT. WITH THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TNGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE LOW BEGINNING TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND. WILL USE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH.
1014 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
955 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. MID DECK CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING UNDER THE RIDGE. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND REACH SOUTHEAST IOWA BEFORE STALLING OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE THE NEXT S/WV.
655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A PERSIST WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES OUT THERE ON THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND MOISTURE DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW WARMER SPOTS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BECAUSE ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER, COULD GENERATE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FOR THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION THERE IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOUTH FLORIDA EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN ADDITION THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL NORM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER MID LEVELS AND DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
311 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LEE TROFFING ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING A NICE WARM UP TO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THESE AREAS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH S TX TODAY RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MN TEMPS SUN NIGHT COULD BE JUST ABV FREEZING ACROSS THE N CWA BRIEFLY TOWARD SUNRISE MON MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
920 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW THE SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD BUT DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS WELL AS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING 10 TO 12 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN IN COMING COLD FRONT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH IT MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST IMPEDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL INDICATE COLDER AIR MOVING IN QUICK ENOUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO THE AREA.