Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect gusts to be highest through midday and then diminish through the afternoon as high pressure moves in. Winds will be gusty and southwesterly as high pressure remains pinned to the southeastern US by a pretty broad coastal low near the southeastern seaboard, and low pressure moves through Canada, creating a steep pressure gradient in between. Luckily, upper lvl ridging in combination with the sfc winds will lead to some gentle warm air advection and highs today should crack the 60 degree mark. Sunday, winds will stay breezy out of the southwest, and highs will be in the 60s again, although mid lvl clouds may move in during the day as a warm front passes over us.
Upper level jet streak noses into the ridge overnight with the main impact being an increase in upper level clouds. Otherwise, lows stay fairly mild in the low to mid 40s. Ridge axis squarely overhead for Sunday will provide for another mild day across the region. NAM and a few of its derivatives suggest some lingering fog or stratus along the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN which in turn cuts back temperatures but this seems more likely to be an outlier solution with a moist biased model.
Temps have made into the low/mid 60s over much of southwest and southern ND. WV imagery shows broad upper low over the west coast with extensive clouds associated with a 130kt 250mb jet that is nosing into the Northern Plains. Still expecting the weak surface boundary currently approaching eastern Montana to cross ND later today and tonight, mainly resulting in a wind shift and slightly cooler temps on Sunday. Max temps will be cooler but still expected to be in the 50s.
In the wake of these showers, winds will increase across the plains on Sunday as cooler air arrives. Moisture associated with a low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will reach Southwestern Montana this evening, bringing some snow to mainly Southwestern Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front.
After temps cool back into the 40s with 50s in the elevated areas, highs tomorrow will run 2-3 degrees warmer areawide under plentiful sunshine and thermal ridge expansion (Upper 70s and 80s areawide forecasted). Hi-res guidance is mixed on the potential, however local bufr soundings indicate just enough boundary layer saturation w/in the lowest 100 meters from the surface to engage the chance.
158 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support downstream active progressive flow with an overall cooling trend in the period. Northern stream upper trough is progressing across southern Canada with a trailing lee side trough. Cold front will slide through the region Sunday, with breezy north winds in the lee of the BH.
Afternoon highs on Sunday, another amazing weather day, will top out in the low 70s across much of the area, with mid-70s forecast for the Rio Grande Plains.
1047 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 A sunny and warmer day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Showers are on the increase along the Idaho/Montana border this afternoon as a cold front approaches the region.
Changes for the eve update included a downward bump in temperature given the low dewpoints, clear sky, and light wind. Morning reading won't likely be as cold as the past couple days given the overall warming of the atmospheric column with strengthening high pressure. High pressure will support continued dry weather and slowly moderating temperature with warm advection and insolation. Gradually warming and dry conditions will prevail through at least mid week with high pressure continuing to build on the van of a wrn CONUS trough. High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind through the TAF period.
Early this afternoon a low amplitude upper ridge was located across the southern and central Plains. An amplified trough was moving east into the Atlantic off the Southeast US coast line. An upper trough was moving onshore across the western US. At 1 PM temperatures were in the lower to mid 60s across the CWA and afternoon highs should peak out in the upper 60s with some lower 70s across the southwest counties.
/issued 222 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ A passing upper level ridge axis this evening will be followed by a weak upper level impulse later tonight and Sunday. Temperatures tonight still appear milder with a warmer airmass and also those limited high clouds, another mark against widespread fog/stratus late tonight.
518 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Dry and mild weather is expected to persist today through sunday in response to the upper level ridge hanging tight over southeast Wyoming.
Helping with the fair weather is building mid level ridging aloft, which should keep a good influx of sunshine given the lack of appreciable cloud cover.
915 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure remains in place at the surface, as upper ridging builds from the west.
723 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Dry and stable low level conditions on the northern fringe of high pressure will persist into Sunday with only thin cirrus overhead at times. Return flow from a departed high pressure system now centered over southern New England has kick-started waa across Michigan, as noted in the DTX RAOB, where h850 temperatures have increased by +5C over a 24 hour period. Only a slight difference noted with surface temperatures at this time as temperatures highs hold right in the lower 50s for today.
Due to warmer than expected high temperatures today mostly in the 60-64 range, was tempted to push tomorrow's high temperatures warmer by a couple degrees as 925H temps will be about 2 degrees warmer. Kavinsky (Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Winds will be light tonight with high pressure and a surface inversion overhead. Highs on Sunday should be a little warmer than today, in the lower 60s, with a steady southwest breeze during the afternoon.
Expansive surface ridging continues to stretch from the western Gulf of Mexico up toward New England. We'll remain under the influence of this feature and a building upper ridge axis through the short term, which will certainly keep us dry and also continue the steady warming trend.
A warm front will slide east Sunday morning and will also act to increase wind speeds across NW WI. High pressure builds for most of the week to keep weather quiet and dry; however, a gradual cool down will occur as a theta-e ridge flattens.
630 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Today, a building upper-ridge has been ushering in 90th percentile low-level (850mb) warm air advection according to NAEFS/ENS guidance.
Cooler And Drier Weather Expected The Next Few Days. A deep low pressure system just east of the GA/FL border this evening eases northeast. High pressure builds in Mon with improving marine conditions and diminished winds and seas for much of the week. A cold front is expected late in the week with showers and an increase in winds and seas.
548 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support downstream active progressive flow with an overall cooling trend in the period. Northern stream upper trough is progressing across southern Canada with a trailing lee side trough. Cold front will slide through the region Sunday, with breezy north winds in the lee of the BH.
Mid-level NW flow and high pressure is keeping us in a cool, calm, and dry pattern.
The high clouds decrease Sunday leading to possible record warmth again Sunday. With a high of 80F this afternoon we've officially recorded the second warmest November day in Denver's history (only 81F on 11/27/2017 was warmer), and there's a good possibility tomorrow ends up in a similar spot. Gusty winds will be likely across the higher terrain, with quiet weather otherwise.
Models show the high thin cirrus rotating out of the area overnight allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Do expect to see some sheltered areas within the frost advisory to reach at or just below freezing but not widespread enough for a freeze warning. Surface ridging will keep winds generally light and less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 63 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 61 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 62 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 60 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
Do expect areas within the frost advisory to drop at or just below freezing, mainly sheltered valleys. Surface ridging will keep winds generally light and less than 10kts.
The decreasing sun angle should allow temperatures to rapidly cool late this afternoon from the anomalous warm fall afternoon highs we are seeing, not only Today but the warmer highs on Sunday as well. The lower lying areas of the far western Ark river valley have the best shot of seeing lows in the upper 30s. Warmer temperatures area-wide are expected Sunday afternoon.
630 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Conditions do not get much better than what we have over the Upper Midwest this weekend with high pressure over the Appalachians and deep ridging over the southwestern CONUS extending northeast. Highs will range through the 60s, from the lower 60s around the Brainerd Lakes region into western WI, to the upper 60s to near 70 in southwestern MN.
856 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern this weekend for our region. Meanwhile, strong low pressure slides by well to our southeast through Sunday.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air will result in beautiful weather across North and Central Texas through Sunday. Temperatures should cool quickly after sunset but with a subtle fetch of low level moisture in place, overnight lows will be a bit warmer than the past few night with mainly lower and middle 40s. Low level warm air advection will gradually increase Sunday, resulting in a warmer and slightly more breezy day with highs in the 70s and a south wind between 5 and 10 mph.
/Issued 251 PM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ Cooler-than-average temperatures will continue to be the main story through tonight. On the backside of the upr trough/storm system, clearing skies and weakening winds will allow for good radiational cooling tonight.
638 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 (This afternoon through Sunday) An upper ridge will dominate Oklahoma's weather through the weekend.
640 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Early this evening the surface maps show an elongated ridge of high pressure with its axis that stretches from the NE U. Afternoon highs on Sunday, another amazing weather day, will top out in the low 70s across much of the area, with mid-70s forecast for the Rio Grande Plains.
645 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Sunday night. A weak upper level trough will move off the Rockies and into the Dakotas on Sunday night. Will see some cooler overnight lows on Sunday night as the weak trough pushes into the region. Expect lows ranging from the low 30s in northwest Nebraska to the mid 30s in central Nebraska.
Forecast is on track for a clear and calm overnight with lows in the low/mid 30s and areas of valley fog. Expansive surface ridging continues to stretch from the western Gulf of Mexico up toward New England. We'll remain under the influence of this feature and a building upper ridge axis through the short term, which will certainly keep us dry and also continue the steady warming trend.
627 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
18Z data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley while weak low pressures are in the lee of the Rockies. Quiet and warmer than normal conditions will be seen as high pressure moves to the east coast.
High pressure remains in control with the continental airmass keeping temperatures 2-5 F below normal through tonight.
Another round of frost and freezing temperatures expected this morning, followed by another pleasant day. Another round of frost and freezing temperatures are ongoing, and a frost advisory/freeze warning has been issued for parts of the eastern TV valley. Once the sun rises expect any patchy fog and frost to quickly evaporate, and mostly sunny skies are in store as these clouds move off to the east with the low continuing it's journey along the Atlantic. Temperatures are expected to run a few degrees warmer than yesterday as the ridge begins to build in from the west.
Return flow from a departed high pressure system now centered over southern New England has kick-started waa across Michigan, as noted in the DTX RAOB, where h850 temperatures have increased by +5C over a 24 hour period. Only a slight difference noted with surface temperatures at this time as temperatures highs hold right in the lower 50s for today. Slight amplification of the longwave trough pattern across the Pacific west is expected as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. Upper-level ridging/height rises will maintain dry conditions with the warm up through Monday.
Have updated the forecast for the lower snow levels, otherwise it's on track for tonight. A deep upper trough will continue to dig into the Pacific Northwest and swing a cold front across the region later today. Southeast to southwest winds will also become breezy this afternoon, turning west to northwest behind the cold frontal passage.
Temps have made into the low/mid 60s over much of southwest and southern ND. WV imagery shows broad upper low over the west coast with extensive clouds associated with a 130kt 250mb jet that is nosing into the Northern Plains. Still expecting the weak surface boundary currently approaching eastern Montana to cross ND later today and tonight, mainly resulting in a wind shift and slightly cooler temps on Sunday. Max temps will be cooler but still expected to be in the 50s. By midweek, deterministic models, ensembles and cluster analysis support a strong trough developing over the central CONUS.
High temperatures today and Monday will primarily be in the lower to middle 60s.
Any fog or low clouds should be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos and far SE Permian Basin early tomorrow. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and expansion of the low lvl thermal ridge will promote further warming on Monday. Enjoy the above normal warmth because cooler weather is expected later in the week.
Models show the high thin cirrus rotating out of the area overnight allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Do expect to see some sheltered areas within the frost advisory to reach at or just below freezing but not widespread enough for a freeze warning. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 41 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 36 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 38 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 33 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
301 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week.
High pressure will remain in control of the region during the short term, keeping cooler temps in place and overall subsidence over SoFlo. The cooler airmass will keep afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s across much of SoFlo, a little warmer towards Homestead, then back into the mid-upper 70s on Monday. Morning lows overnight will again hit the low-mid 50s inland, and near 60 near the coast.
Changes for the eve update included a downward bump in temperature given the low dewpoints, clear sky, and light wind. Morning reading won't likely be as cold as the past couple days given the overall warming of the atmospheric column with strengthening high pressure. High pressure will support continued dry weather and slowly moderating temperature with warm advection and insolation. Gradually warming and dry conditions will prevail through at least mid week with high pressure continuing to build on the van of a wrn CONUS trough. VFR conditions and light wind will continue through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control.
At 245 PM, upper level ridging was bringing beautiful weather to the region, with temperatures in the 60s and just a few wispy cirrus flying by. Today and Sunday: The axis of upper level ridging will shift gradually eastward over the next 24 hours, allowing a transition to more southwesterly follow aloft. At the surface, pressure gradients should increase in response to lee troughing and a cold front advancing through the Dakotas. The Upcoming Week: A gradual cooling trend will begin Monday with the arrival of a weak cold front.
1244 AM CDT Sun Nov 7 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Sunday night. A weak upper level trough will move off the Rockies and into the Dakotas on Sunday night. Will see some cooler overnight lows on Sunday night as the weak trough pushes into the region. Expect lows ranging from the low 30s in northwest Nebraska to the mid 30s in central Nebraska. Precipitation chances arrive on Monday as a weak trough and associated cold front pushes across the central Plains. Any precipitation that does develop is expected to be all rain as temperatures, while cooler than this weekend, will still be well above freezing (highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s).
This has leveled off, and with increasing clouds we may not see too much more cooling (though a few more locations could fall to freezing than originally though). Winds will turn southerly this afternoon as a surface boundary makes its way through the CWA, advecting warmer air into the area. This is responsible for warmer temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Heading into Sunday morning, a weak cold front will push southeast through eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
We'll transition to more southwesterly flow aloft as the main ridge axis sits to the east running from the Great Lakes through Texas. A cold front will drop southeast through the area tomorrow night and into Monday morning.
157 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Following a cold front crossing the area as a weak wave moves through, expecting the areas of light showers to move out of the area today. Temperatures will will be cooler today, back drown around normal. Lows tonight will drop down below freezing for much of the area.
1143 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Dry and mild weather is expected to persist today through sunday in response to the upper level ridge hanging tight over southeast Wyoming. Otherwise, a cooler day is store for the forecast area.
An upper level low will push east off the Florida coast. Overnight temperatures are expected to flow suit and increase into the low to mid 40s. A dry cold front looks to stall to our north.
An upper level trough will continue to make its way over Florida and off over the Atlantic through Sunday.
205 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Upper ridging continues over the central and southern plains at 08Z with a broad trough axis just off the west coast. The surface pattern has seen little to no substantial change with southwesterly flow over our area and a weak lee trough in the High Plains just to our west. 925-850mb temps in the 16-18 deg C range should translate to highs in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, with some far eastern locations possibly remaining in the upper 60s.
Early morning surface analysis indicated high pressure stretched from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast through the Ohio Valley, while unorganized low pressure was in the lee of the Rockies. This resulted in light south winds keeping temperatures several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Aloft, 500 mb map showed ridging expanding east from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. The stretch of excellent fall weather continues in the short term as upper ridging expands east today. MSLP gradient tightens with the high shifting farther east and a low pressure trof tracking into the Plains and Upper Midwest. Positive 500 mb height anomaly bullseye shifts overhead as the upper ridge leans across the region on Monday.
300 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 The synoptic setup early this morning featured a northern stream upper wave moving east over Ontario, a southern stream trough moving east just off the southeastern coast and an upper ridge extending from Texas into the Missouri Valley. Finally, weak disturbance was rounding the upper ridge and generating a few isolated patches of high clouds over north central Indiana. The upper ridge will point northeastward across central Indiana late today and this evening before dropping southeast across the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Appalachians on Monday. This formula combined with the dry column will keep any clouds relegated to cirrus and mostly this afternoon and evening as the ridge moves in. Low level thermals support above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the lower 60s today and middle to upper 60s Monday.
Mid-level NW flow and high pressure is keeping us in a cool, calm, and dry pattern. With clear skies, light/calm winds, and favorable dewpoint depressions developing per continuance of building ridging influences sfc/aloft especially thru 07/14Z, heightened awareness needs to be given to LIFR fog induced vsbys potential all mid state terminals 07/10Z-07/14Z as atmosphere experiences max radiational cooling potential. Above trend in building ridging influences sfc/aloft should continue thru 08/06Z with VFR/SKC conditions prevailing.
A couple of weather systems passing north of our area will bring slightly cooler temperatures during the early to midweek period. Southeast Arizona is under west to southwest flow aloft as the ridge axis has now moved to the east of the area.
1100 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support downstream active progressive flow with an overall cooling trend in the period. Northern stream upper trough is progressing across southern Canada with a trailing lee side trough. Cold front will slide through the region Sunday, with breezy north winds in the lee of the BH. Slight warm up mid week before the next potent northern stream trough ejects across the upper CONUS and support a strong cold front into the region Wed-Thur. A dry cold front will pass through the area during the late morning and afternoon hours, bringing breezy northwesterly winds behind it across the plains.
1101 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Conditions do not get much better than what we have over the Upper Midwest this weekend with high pressure over the Appalachians and deep ridging over the southwestern CONUS extending northeast. Highs will range through the 60s, from the lower 60s around the Brainerd Lakes region into western WI, to the upper 60s to near 70 in southwestern MN.
Temperatures are generally at or just below freezing eastern third. Heights will be on the upswing as upper ridging moves our way. At the surface, high pressure ridging continues to extend southwestward from the high located over WV.
Although a nocturnal- instability driven shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, most island communities should remain dry overnight. Coicident with the fresh northwesterly flow, expecting a pretty wide range in low temperatures for the night, where the Lower Keys may struggle to get out of the lower 70s, while portions of the Upper Keys should bottom out in the lower 60s. From synopsis, intensifying low pressure off the coast of Northeast Florida will result in fresh to occasionally strong northwest to north breezes overnight.
1052 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Today, a building upper-ridge has been ushering in 90th percentile low-level (850mb) warm air advection according to NAEFS/ENS guidance.
/issued 222 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ A passing upper level ridge axis this evening will be followed by a weak upper level impulse later tonight and Sunday. Temperatures tonight still appear milder with a warmer airmass and also those limited high clouds, another mark against widespread fog/stratus late tonight. RMcQueen Upper ridging will be off to our east Monday with zonal flow setting up aloft.