Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hot and somewhat muggy weather is expected in the Ohio Valley to start the upcoming work week, as an upper ridge axis extends from the ArkLaTex region northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. Weak sfc ridging will keep winds light and not offer any focus for convection, so no mention of precip through the first part of the week. Temps Monday afternoon will reach the lower/mid 90s, but as the boundary-layer continues to dry, expect dewpoints to mix down into the upper 60s, keeping the heat index values out of triple digits. The dominate weather feature for the first half of the week will be a strong upper level ridge across the central US centered over ArkLaTex and the Central Mississippi River Valley.
641 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the forecast period as ridging remains in control. The ridge is beginning to loosen its hold on the eastern sites, and as a result some isolated convection will be possible tomorrow.
Convection will once again be sparse tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Models in agreement that the mid/upper level ridge over the ArkLaTex will continue to build in the short term. Meanwhile, at the surface, the flow around high pressure centered over southeast OK and northern TN will keep high dewpoints, in the mid/upper 70s, pooled up over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. As temperatures continue to trend warmer and dewpoints stay as such, heat indices above 110 appear likely in these areas.
/issued 148 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ Stacked but narrow ridging continues to stretch from the W Atlantic over the C FL Peninsula and into the C Gulf of Mexico into early week.
/issued 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A broad subtropical ridge centered across the ArkLaTex region will maintain seasonable late August temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the short term portion of the forecast. Leaned toward the warmer guidance for the afternoon high temperatures on Monday given the overall dry subsident synoptic pattern. Expect the high risk of rips to end after midnight as the overall wave energy continues to fall below critical levels.
With strong upper- level ridging overhead, most convection is suppressed due to dry air and subsidence. Rain chances will still be minimal at 15% or less due to high pressure still overhead.
On Monday little change is expected as high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula remains in control. High pressure over the region will maintain tranquil boating conditions with light winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Monday with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component re-developing along the coast during Monday afternoon.
959 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. Dropped most of the PoPs for the overnite hrs but added slght chc PoPs to the lwr Md ern shore late as some of the high res data suggests a few shwrs are psbl toward sunrise from the large area of rain/storms now rotating sse across ern Pa/NJ. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in dry conditions.
--Scattered showers through this evening-- ML Capes near 1500 J/KG southeast of GRR and sfc convergence associated with dissipating/slow moving sfc cold front will support a continuation of scattered showers through this evening.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will move through the area late Monday morning through the afternoon. The cooler air mass, combined with smoke aloft, will keep max temperatures around 10 degrees below normal on Monday.
It has been a different story in central and north central Washington where north or northwest winds continue to be quite gusty as a potent cold front descends from British Columbia sending a shot of cooler air southward through the Okanogan Valley and across our counties along the Canadian border. Monday will continue to be cool with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s in far north Idaho and extreme northeast Washington while the rest of the Inland Northwest experiences highs in the low to mid 70s. /GKoch 06Z TAFS: Northwest winds will gust at Wenatchee, Chelan, and Omak for much of the night as a cold front pushes southward from British Columbia.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, with no rain forecast. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
This model depicts continued southeast development this morning, with the highest coverage of storm over the NE half of the forecast area.
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in dry conditions.
228 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Short term forecast keeps the state caught in fast southwesterly flow, caught between general troughiness across the Pacific Northwest and dominant ridging centered on the Southern Plains.
Weak high pressure overhead this morning has deflected the higher dewpoint airmass to the south, and with little ET these days, fog will mix out rapidly and dewpoints will crash for the afternoon.
Otherwise VFR expected with building upper level high pressure and warm temperatures. /issued 140 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ Synoptic weather pattern across the region will remain largely unchanged over the next 24 hours save a slight veering of the mid level flow as high pressure maintains its position over eastern Texas. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will help to further dry the lower layers with a cap keeping thunderstorm chances well below mentionable probabilities.
There is some uncertainty as to just how low dewpoints can mix out to, but they should be a bit lower by afternoon compared to the low/mid 70s they are now. The upper ridge to the south will continue to gradually expand northward, while any weak disturbances in the flow stay well to the north.
1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 High pressure overhead continues to dominate the region tonight, and as a result the forecast remains on track. /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the forecast period as ridging remains in control. The ridge is beginning to loosen its hold on the eastern sites, and as a result some isolated convection will be possible tomorrow.
Muggy with Lingering Storm Chances Today: The synoptic pattern today will feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas and laminar flow from southwest to northeast over the Northern Plains (between 700 mb and 200 mb). Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.
415 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Ridging aloft remains over the peninsula this morning, with the upper ridge axis over the northern peninsula and mid-level ridge axis over the southern peninsula. hot and humid with a daily chance of showers/storms, afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s with heat indices topping 100 each afternoon. High pressure remains over the Gulf waters through the early part of the week with mostly tranquil conditions before an upper level area of low pressure moves into the region by mid week.
1233 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Currently, Nebraska is located just SE of a closed low centered over the Montana/ND border. Some lee troughing dips SE through to W Kansas. A warm front has passed, but soon a dry line and subsequent cold front are expected to move through.
240 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure in place over MI and WI. Water vapor imagery showed ridging in place across IL/IN and MI with strong subsidence in place across the region. Models today show the ridge axis aloft moving slowly to the east. This results in strong high pressure settling across the deep south. high pressure is expected to sag southward toward KY/TN.
As it does, the low begins to fill a bit, and the main jet stream energy remains north of Lake Superior. This, in turn, has the dry air in the 700-500 mb layer that splits the chances for rain so that they remain, mainly north and south of the the lower peninsula.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ A sprawling upper level high pressure dome will remain centered over North Texas today and tonight, virtually eliminating rain chances and limiting cloud formation to just a few fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon.
153 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 High pressure will extend into the area through mid week. Summary: Confidence continues to increase that a mid-level ridge will persist over the Ohio Valley into this upcoming weekend.
401 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 High pressure will continue offshore with weak troughing over inland areas for much of this week. Best axis of high precipitable water values remains near the coast this morning as the upper level low centered over the mid Atlantic will move away to the northeast today, leaving our area in a weak northerly flow aloft. As a result, will forecast the highest PoPs 30-50 percent in areas closer to the coast, while areas west of the Highway 17 corridor will have PoPs of 20 percent or less. High temperatures will be warmer than recent days with highs lower 90s inland and mid/upper 80s coast. Seasonably hot and humid conditions on tap for most of this week as initial weak troughing over the area breaks down and high pressure builds in later in the week.
Limit time outdoors and drink plenty of water as the heat builds this week! With high pressure directly overhead, skies are clear and winds have become calm across central Illinois early this morning. Further west, scattered convection has developed ahead of a cold front within a broad 30-40kt 850mb jet from eastern Nebraska to western Wisconsin. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
For the short term period, the CWA will be situated on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over TX and OK.
High pressure centered over eastern TX will continue to build slowly and expand towards the northwest.
323 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 An elongation of the subtropical ridge across the central and eastern US will occur over the next couple of days, with the ridge expected to persist into the weekend. In fact, recent medium range model trends build the ridge over the ern US over the weekend, indicating a likely hot and humid last weekend of August. This will result in a drop in surface dewpoints (possibly down into the low 60s) this afternoon, causing in a lowering of the humidity.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge begins its dominance across the area today as it begins to build west across the southern Plains into the southern Rockies.
Weakening onshore flow beneath high pressure building in from the east will bring a slow warming trend through the week.
Rain/storm chances increase by the weekend, along with relatively cooler temps. Mid level heights continue to slowly rise from the south, as mid level ridge center over TX shifts up over the Red River Valley. Evidence of this drying could already be showing up in area obs, like KMLC whose dewpoint has dropped into the upper 60s from the low 70s.
225 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. Maintained only a slght chc PoPs for the lwr Md ern shore late tonight/early Mon morning as some of the high res data suggests a few shwrs are psbl toward sunrise from the large area of rain/storms now rotating sse across ern Pa/NJ. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
Upper 500mb heights increase to 590 to 592 dam by Monday afternoon as the upper ridge builds eastward.
321 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 The upper trough will gradually lift away from the region today as upper level ridging builds into the region through the week. The upper trough continues to be located over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic region while upper ridging over the deep south builds northeastward into the OH/TN valleys. The upper trough will lift northeast and the upper ridge to our west will build into the region today. Expect highs to be warmer than Sunday with highs in the lower 90s. Skies should clear out overnight allowing for good radiational cooling but elevated dewpoints will limit cooling and expect lows in the lower to mid 70s.
This will apply to all TAF sites, however KDHT is right on the fringe of the low level jet. The peak of the low level jet will run between KAMA and KGUY.
High pressure across the region will result in a mostly clear sky through the period at all sites. The highest probability (near 20 percent) is at TRI, and with the close proximity along the river, will mention tempo fog early this morning. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 94 71 93 / 0 0 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 92 68 92 / 10 0 10 0 30.
235 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 An upper level ridge is in place over the region and will remain the focus for the areas weather through this week. For today, a few upper level short waves will move through the upper ridge and bring the potential for some showers or an isolated thunderstorm to areas mainly east of Highway 65 as early as late this morning and into this afternoon. This will work to bring warmer and moist air into the region with afternoon temperatures today into the lower to middle 90s.
224 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. Maintained only a slght chc PoPs for the lwr Md ern shore late tonight/early Mon morning as some of the high res data suggests a few shwrs are psbl toward sunrise from the large area of rain/storms now rotating sse across ern Pa/NJ. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
140 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. Maintained only a slght chc PoPs for the lwr Md ern shore late tonight/early Mon morning as some of the high res data suggests a few shwrs are psbl toward sunrise from the large area of rain/storms now rotating sse across ern Pa/NJ. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over southern British Columbia. A weak trough extended south of this feature into central South Dakota and central Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms had fired along this trough tonight and were continuing over east central South Dakota. Elsewhere, high pressure was anchored over the Arklatex and low pressure was located over the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure was located over Bermuda. East of the boundary, winds were southerly and dew points were noticeably higher with readings in the lower 70s.
1049 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A trough that impacted the area last night has pushed into the northern Plains. A mainly dry west/southwest flow will continue tonight through Monday night with a warming trend Monday as a trough pulls across southwest Canada. A weak cold front, associated with the trough north of the region, is expected to push into northern Wyoming late Monday night. As a result, the weather will be drier and warmer with just isolated afternoon and evening convection.
High temperatures should rise into the lower 90s with light northerly winds. Forecast dewpoint values in the low/mid 70s should help produce heat index values ranging in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees.
339 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Latest analysis shows TD Henri over New England, along with an upper level trough that stretches from the northeast down through the Mid Atlantic and SE US. Another couple of troughs are located over central Canada and western Canada. Locally, eastern Kentucky is benefiting from high pressure and upper level ridging stretching from the deep south up through the Great Lakes.
148 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Satellite imagery shows an upper low over southern BC and southwest flow aloft in our region. There may be a smaller risk of weak thunderstorms in our northwest by late afternoon, but better chance (in a relative sense) is after 00z as a Canadian cold front drops thru the area.
420 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 High pressure will extend into the area today and tonight.
/Issued 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021/ /Today and Tonight/ A sprawling upper level high pressure dome will remain centered over North Texas today and tonight, virtually eliminating rain chances and limiting cloud formation to just a few fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon.
1253 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 The region will remain positioned between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through early week. High pressure will then dominate the region for the remainder of the week.
Middle to high level clouds across portions of the region ahead of passing trough this afternoon and evening. With some available moisture and forcing, potential this afternoon for initial elevated convection before moving out into the high plains of WY and then NE late this afternoon and into the evening. Ongoing upper level ridging and lack of moisture remains the norm for most of the work week.
320 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Current surface analysis shows weakening cool front just east of the forecast area, with a Canadian cold front hanging north of the area. Another Pacific cold front lies across far western MT and ID. Temps are in the 50s and lower 60s, with 40s over the higher Black Hills. A dry airmass will settle over much of the area ahead of the cold front to the west, with low RH and breezy conditions developing in many areas. Mainly dry cold front will then move through the region from the northwest overnight and Tuesday morning, with breezy northwesterly winds behind it late tonight and Tuesday, especially across the SD plains. A troughing pattern looks to remain persistent over the Pacific NW into the Rockies, with west-southwest flow aloft into the Northern Plains.
High pressure and ridging aloft will result in light winds and a clear sky through the period.
Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure in place over MI and WI. Water vapor imagery showed ridging in place across IL/IN and MI with strong subsidence in place across the region. Models today show the ridge axis aloft moving slowly to the east. This results in strong high pressure settling across the deep south. high pressure is expected to sag southward toward KY/TN. The previously mentioned blocking high steers much of the forcing well to the north. Meanwhile at the surface the strong high pressure system is in place across SE of Indiana. Ensemble means suggest upper ridging will hold across the Ohio Valley for the balance of the period. The local area may end up being capped off to convection for the most part, due to the proximity of the upper ridge.
For today, all models are showing a weak trough over the western United States. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday with highs in the low 80s to low 90s.
High pressure will provide dry weather on Tuesday, with warm conditions persisting through much of the week.
By this evening, low pressure and a cold front will push through with scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a wind switch to the northwest. Tuesday will feature cooler and drier weather conditions, but gusty winds will be possible.
Last evening's upper air analysis and this morning's water vapor satellite imagery show the subtropical ridge over Texas. There is good model agreement for the subtropical ridge remaining in place through the short term period. Models are also in good agreement in the lower levels with southerly to southeasterly flow continuing. The upper ridge will continue to suppress convection for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be about the same as the last couple of days, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
Look for generally hot and humid conditions for the next 2 days as high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will allow the area to reach into the low to mid 90s each day.
A low pressure system over WA will pass far enough north and refrain from affecting our region other than to tighten pressure gradients that could create occasional breezy conditions. The models were forecasting temps to drop toward freezing across central Oregon that may approach record lows while locations in the mountains such as Meacham are forecast in the upper 20s Tuesday morning. Afterwards a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the region Tuesday and afternoon temps will be slightly warmer climbing into the 80s. A long wave trough approaches WA/OR by midweek that will increase clouds for the area.
High temperatures should rise into the lower 90s with light northerly winds. Forecast dewpoint values in the low/mid 70s should help produce heat index values ranging in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees. Mean short amplitude troughing along the Mid Atlantic region (partially associated with TD Henri now over southern New York) will flatten during the course of tonight and on Tuesday, as upper ridging reamplifies across the southern Lower-48 into the middle of the week. Thus a repeat performance weather-wise is forecast on Tuesday, but a bit warmer. High temperatures should warm into the low/mid 90s. Dewpoint values again in the low/mid 70s will yield even higher heat index values, ranging from the upper 90s to 105 in a few places.
633 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 The upper trough will gradually lift away from the region today as upper level ridging builds into the region through the week. The upper trough continues to be located over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic region while upper ridging over the deep south builds northeastward into the OH/TN valleys. The upper trough will lift northeast and the upper ridge to our west will build into the region today.
632 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 High pressure will continue over the area today. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge over the southern U. The upper low pressure over the northeast will move off the coast Tuesday. Lows at night will be in the lower to mid 70s.
519 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge begins its dominance across the area today as it begins to build west across the southern Plains into the southern Rockies.
946 AM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Tranquil weather ongoing across the Tennessee Valley this morning as high pressure amplifies and settles into the area from the west. These clear conditions will prevail through the day, helping to boost high temperatures into the lower 90s by this afternoon. Mean short amplitude troughing along the Mid Atlantic region (partially associated with TD Henri now over southern New York) will flatten during the course of tonight and on Tuesday, as upper ridging reamplifies across the southern Lower-48 into the middle of the week. Thus a repeat performance weather-wise is forecast on Tuesday, but a bit warmer. High temperatures should warm into the low/mid 90s. Dewpoint values again in the low/mid 70s will yield even higher heat index values, ranging from the upper 90s to 105 in a few places.
On Tuesday An upper level trough will exit the northern Rockies and move out into the Northern Plains as another upper wave deepens/develops as it crosses Northern California.