Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show an upper low spinning over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with a lobe of PVA clipping northeastern Iowa. /Sunday through Saturday/ Quiet and cool weather is expected early in the week becoming much warmer and humid by the end of the longer term. The mixing along with the warm advection should add a few degrees onto today's highs and have generally gone into the lower 80s for Sunday.
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 A cold front is currently pushing southeast across the area this afternoon, as an upper level trough is spreading across the region. Behind the front direr and slightly cooler air will spread into the region. An upper level ridge will build over the plains early in the week then over the region during the middle to end of the week. Highs by the end of the week are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with the upper level ridge over head. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A pre-frontal trough has moved through the TAF sites this morning, with winds now out of the northwest, albeit light. KBBG still close to the lower cloud deck and could see some IFR ceilings through early afternoon before these push off to the east.
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Today will be highlighted by an upper trough of low pressure moving across the northern and central MS valley. The cumulus will erode this evening leaving clear skies for the rest of tonight and lows in the lower to mid 50s. Sunday looks to be a warmer day with optimal mixing and warmer thermal profiles, as highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Weak warm advection overnight however with light mixing and SKC temperatures might be a few degrees cooler. Secondary mid level circulation drops into main trough over the great lakes Sunday. With cooler column dropping into the fa temperatures should respond and have cooler minimums. Stronger waves digs into the mean trough over the great lakes. With more cloud cover and cooler airmass temperatures to hold mainly in the 60s to around 70 over the far SW.
111 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Another few days of high pressure, dry and warm conditions on tap.
Anticyclonic northwest flow aloft is in place over the central High Plains to the east of a strong upper level ridge sitting over the western CONUS. With light winds and dewpoints in the mid 40s tonight, we should see lows drop into the lower 50s with a few locations likely dipping into the upper 40s.
Models, and specifically short range models, are picking up on a disturbance moving across south-central KS/western OK and are using it to steepen lapse rates just enough to allow convection along a weak surface trof. Aldrich Upper level ridge Sunday over the 4-corners' meridian will shift eastward to the spine of the Colorado/New Mexico mountains.
upper ridge and upper midwest low pressure system. CAPE will be under 1000 j/kg today given warm temperatures aloft associated with the upper ridge, and cooler temperatures on the plains will keep a cap in place across the plains restricting any afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to the mountain areas. -KT The upper level ridge axis remains to our west on Sunday as northwest flow aloft continues across the northern plains. It will still be warm Sunday with highs mostly in the 80s at the lower elevations.
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Still expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the first half of Sunday as mid level trough brings deeper moisture and lift into the area, ahead of a cold front now across Illinois. Have gone with a broad brush of chance POPs through the period with progressively cooler temperatures behind each passing system.
An upper level trough passing into the Midwest has pushed a cold front into southwestern Kansas early this morning.
219 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 With ridging and drier air mass pushing into the region, the main issue will be temperatures. Models in close agreement on low level thermal field and tended to blend the output or slightly below the warmer guidance. The upper level ridge to the west will move across the Tri-State area during this period. During the overnight hours the nose of the low level jet develops over the north central part of the area. Looks like the higher dew point depressions will move in later in the night.
This trough will sweep into the state later this evening, forcing the front southward and kicking the last vestiges of the showers and thunderstorms south of the state. Dry northwest flow will spread into the state on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expected.
1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Line of showers and thunderstorms along and just ahead of cold front extending from southeastern Iowa to Kirksville then southwest towards southern portions of KC metro area, is moving into more stable air/lower CAPES, so will continue to see a weakening trend through daybreak.
Upper level ridging continues to build over the Northern Rocky Mountain region for mostly clear skies and very warm/hot temperatures. High pressure ridge keeps the airmass mostly dry and stable except for a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over extreme Southwest Montana.
After midnight tonight, the upper low will move south and east, and it will no longer have any influence over West Central Texas weather. For tonight, some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may linger; otherwise, expect clearing skies and lows ranging from around 60 to the lower 60s.
Have based rain chances tonight on current radar trends and Hi-Res guidance, which gradually shifts the focus for activity back to the northwest late tonight with the approach of upper level troughing.
Warmer temps aloft move in on Sunday with good mixing winds developing once again.
/Issued 144 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ Mean northeasterly flow is occurring over the Panhandles early this morning on the northwest edge of slowly departing upper low currently over central Texas. A weak cold front forced by a northern stream wave now exiting the central/northern Plains will continue moving south across the area this morning. The post-frontal air mass is slightly cooler with only a small different in temperatures tomorrow expected in comparison to today. Mid-upper flow will become more northerly as western ridge amplifies and the central Texas upper low shifts further away.
Cold front pushes through Sunday. A series of reinforcing cold fronts move through early in the work week. With the warm temperatures, the freezing and -20C lines are rather high so still thinking damaging winds would be the biggest threat severe-wise, with hail a secondary threat. And finally, expect the cold front to move through Sunday, with a third round of showers and thunderstorms.
Will continue to mention an isolated showers or perhaps thunder this evening as the mid-lvl trough axis begins to pivot east from the central plains towards Illinois.
133 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Closed low over Minnesota with trough through Mississippi valley. Ridging from southeast conus through Great Lakes ahead of the closed low. Strong pronounced ridge over the western conus.
Surface cold front from just west of the Twin Cities to near Des Moines will move into central WI by 18Z. In the post-frontal air mass, another vorticity lobe within broader trough aloft will rotate across the area, sparking another broken line of convection this afternoon/early evening. Despite cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening low-level lapse rates with trough passage, MLCAPE values only rise to around 300-500 J/kg with surface dew points in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Otherwise, today will be cooler with highs in the 70s and increasing northwest winds this afternoon.
The main upper level low continues to push southeast towards Corpus Christi this afternoon, but a secondary mid-level circulation (evident on afternoon water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis) appears have to developed roughly over the Houston metro. An approaching weak cold front (stretching from the Permian Basin into Northwest Texas this afternoon) will slowly approach during the day on Sunday, reaching the Brazos Valley Sunday evening.
(Issued 1107 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016) Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated an open upper low over SE TX beginning to phase with an upper low currently churning west of the Great Lakes region. High pressure prevailed to the east/west of these features, making a pinwheel effect of sorts for the local CWFA. Generally scattered showers and storms are lingering across the area at the moment, but additional development is expected later this afternoon and especially this evening as a surface cold front (currently draped across the eastern Central Plains) meanders SE through the night. A cold front will move towards the region early Sunday morning, and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move towards the terminals once again between 08Z and 13Z.
Water vapor satellite animation shows an upper level low continuing to spin in the vicinity of south TX late this morning, with moist south to southwest flow aloft spreading across our region well in advance of this system.
Heading into tonight, forcing will slowly be on the increase as the cold front out west finally begins to slide east. By Sunday, the cold front moves east with the bulk of the gradient reaching eastern Kentucky by Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, with a saturated ground and clearing skies coupled with cooler temps and subsidence moving into the area, fog will be a threat.
A cooling trend will begin near the coast today and spread inland by Sunday as an upper level low pressure system approaches the coast and onshore flow increases. Temperatures across the region this morning are generally running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago as cooling overnight was limited partially due to increased high cloud cover. Meanwhile, low clouds remain confined mostly to the coast with high clouds spreading over the entire region ahead of an approaching mid/upper level low. With a very warm and dry air mass aloft still in place, temperatures will once again be very warm to hot over inland areas this afternoon, yet slightly cooler compared to yesterday.
The upper level trough digging southeast across the upper midwest will phase with the upper low across eastern TX and move into the MS river valley Tonight. The weak surface cold front will move southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours of Saturday. Scattered CU will redevelop during the afternoon hours across northeast KS as lapse rates may be steep enough along the western periphery of the departing H5 trough. Highs Today will reach the lower 80s across much of the CWA. Meanwhile a strong ridge continues to build over the Western CONUS with impressive heights entrenched in place.
Increasing WAA pattern/southwest LLJ and anomalous H85 moisture influx of high PW air /+2SD/ should support a broader coverage of showers/storms expanding northeast with warm front across central PA tonight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen to below 1000mb lifting northward across the lower Great Lakes into southern Ontario. To the south of a warm front advancing into NY and southern New England, guidance suggests a stronger early-day surge of moisture and forcing coincident with strengthening deep layer flow ahead of the approaching negative tilt trough.
322 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Rain will taper off from west to east this evening as a warm front ahead of low pressure over Wisconsin moves across our area. The cold front associated with this low will move across the area late tonight possibly accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be around 60, with highs on Sunday in the lower and middle 70s. Wk shrtwv and subtle sfc warm front lifting ne across the area combining with deep moisture resulting in an area of rain overspreading much of the cwa today. except cooler near LM with onshore flow.
301 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 A cold front will push into the Mid-South tonight. The cold front will still be located over North Mississippi and areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River Sunday morning. Meanwhile, clearing will begin to take place across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee on Sunday as high pressure begins to build into the region.
Mid/upper level low pressure currently moving over the upper Midwest. A few pieces of energy are diving through the southern end of the trough axis. These winds should become light overnight as high pressure slides southward through the high plains. Skies will be mostly clear and high temperatures in the lower 80s.
The warming trend continues through the weekend as the Great Basin ridge slowly shifts east.
Cold front pushes through Sunday. A series of reinforcing cold fronts move through early in the work week. With the warm temperatures, the freezing and -20C lines are rather high so still thinking damaging winds would be the biggest threat severe-wise, with hail a secondary threat. Fortunately, we have been quite dry and flash flood guidance is high across the lowlands. And finally, expect the cold front to move through Sunday, with a third round of showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 1034 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from Quincy, Illinois to Tulsa, Oklahoma while a pre-frontal trough stretches from Farmington, Missouri to Harrison, Arkansas. /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ Early morning temperatures are in the low 70s across the Midsouth under cloudy skies. A deep trough remains in over the Mississippi River valley. This low will slowly sink to the south over the next 24 to 48 hours. and the mean trough will shift slowly to the East. West of the axis of the trough.
This boundary is expected to become the effective wind shift/prefrontal trough into the morning hours. Deep northwest flow will develop over the Midwest around a large upper level closed low over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. With warming mid levels there really aren't signals for convection late in the week despite warmer and more humid sfc/low level air advecting northward. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A pre-frontal trough has moved through the TAF sites this morning, with winds now out of the northwest, albeit light. KBBG still close to the lower cloud deck and could see some IFR ceilings through early afternoon before these push off to the east.
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Weak cold front moved through the CWA during the overnight hours, initiating a thin band of elevated convection along its leading edge. The upper level trough to the north will continue eastward through the Great Lakes region and a broad ridge will build into the western US placing the Central Plains in a northwest flow regime through the end of the upcoming week.
9 inches with mid level RH values of up to 66 percent showing a very moist environment with the presence of this low over the Texas region. Models are in good agreement with the movement of the upper low through Sunday evening with the center of the low pressure slowly drifts South into the CWA. The low will become an elongated trough with abundant moist boundary along the Texas Coast while upper ridge builds to the West. Forecast temps will be a bit below normal due to the the lower heights and thickness values along with high pops and clouds today and Sunday.
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Quiet weather expected in the short term with weak high pressure prevailing across the region. Sunday will be an awesome day with highs again in the lower 80s.
550 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Still expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the first half of Sunday as mid level trough brings deeper moisture and lift into the area, ahead of a cold front now across Illinois. Have gone with a broad brush of chance POPs through the period with progressively cooler temperatures behind each passing system.
Isolated or scattered -TSRA possible near and just behind weak cold front with most activity east and south of terminals. Will mention prob30 at KSPS where timing of mid level trough and heating could lead to slightly more coverage there. Very light showers skirting far southeast and south-central parts of Oklahoma north of upper low. This coincides with passage of mid-level/H70 trough.
1220 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 With ridging and drier air mass pushing into the region, the main issue will be temperatures. Models in close agreement on low level thermal field and tended to blend the output or slightly below the warmer guidance.
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 19z/2 pm surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low pressure over western WI, with a cool front extending southward through central IL near Lincoln and into southeast MO. Models show more clouds dropping south from IA into the IL river valley later tonight as 565 dm 500 mb low near Minneapolis/St Paul MN tracks into the western Great Lakes with upper level trof axis moving into IL by dawn Sunday. Low pressure area over the Great Lakes region will continue to influence the weather over central and southeast Illinois through the beginning of the new week.
interior valleys could see a weak tsra move off the high terrain this evening, while I-25 corridor and eastern plains stay mainly dry as nly steering flow and limited instability keep storms from pushing eastward. On Sunday, thunderstorm chances should increase most locations with upper ridge retreating slightly to the sw as weak s/w energy drops south into the central plains.
Tonight and Sunday Currently monitoring a marginal severe weather threat over central WI, where partial clearing has occurred, CAPE has increased to 800-1000 j/kg, and a warm frontal boundary is situated nearby. Despite the passage of the upper trof overnight, a general decrease in shower activity is anticipated due to waning instability. Sunday Night Through Saturday Northeast Wisconsin will remain in a relatively cool pattern through the upcoming work week as a broad upper-level low pressure trough over the eastern half of North America slowly transitions east. A strong upper-level high pressure ridge will expand into the Midwest by the end of the week and temperatures will warm at that time. for 18Z TAF Issuance An upper low moving across northern wisconsin will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance of formation within 5 days in its 2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.
and Sunday The upper low over northern Minnesota is expected to move into Upper Michigan today while at the surface diffuse low pressure moves from central Minnesota to central Wisconsin with a warm front moving north towards southern Lake Winnebago. If the warm front does make it into the southern Fox Valley later in the afternoon and there is some surface heating a marginally severe storm would be possible. SHowers will diminish after mid evening as the upper low lifts northeast from the Great Lakes. Another upper low drops down towards the northern Great lakes Sunday. Despite cold advection and some drying in the low levels there is a good chance of showers or low top convection Sunday afternoon as a strong upper jet approaches.
529 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
401 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Copious moisture circulating around Great Lakes low pressure will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching upper level trough will continue this afternoon and into early Sunday. The higher PW values on Sunday will remain over the mountains where the highest chance for showers and storms will be. There could still be a strong storm or to on Sunday across eastern portions of the area where SBCAPE values will be around 750-1500 J/Kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear values of 40-50 kts as the main upper level trough moves through.
Today will see similar conditions to yesterday as temps are expected to average in the 70s across the lower elevations and upper 50s/low 60s in the mountains. Temps will steadily climb back into the upper 70s to low 80s for Sunday as H7 temps rise into the lower teens Celsius.
439 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 A warm front extend from Michigan into North Carolina and a cold front trails from Michigan to Texas. The warm front lift north tonight and Sunday while the cold front moves east.
322 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Rain will taper off from west to east this evening as a warm front ahead of low pressure over Wisconsin moves across our area. The cold front associated with this low will move across the area late tonight and Sunday, possibly accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows tonight will be around 60, with highs on Sunday in the lower and middle 70s. Wk shrtwv and subtle sfc warm front lifting ne across the area combining with deep moisture resulting in an area of rain overspreading much of the cwa today. except cooler near LM with onshore flow.
However, with deep and moist south/southwesterly flow in place and an upper trough approaching from the west, additional showers and storms may develop overnight.
I made a few minor changes for less cloud cover and a degree or two warmer highs on the plains. High amplitude ridge aloft will continue to build over the Great Basin and much of the Western U. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today following the weak disturbance. A weak disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft over the state will bring another round of afternoon and evening convection, mainly over the higher terrain but there will be a slight chance of a few storms pushing southeast across the urban corridor and Palmer Divide. Temperatures will be warming as the upper ridge over the western states moves closer.
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Mid/upper level low pressure currently moving over the upper Midwest. A few pieces of energy are diving through the southern end of the trough axis. These winds should become light overnight as high pressure slides southward through the high plains. Skies will be mostly clear and high temperatures in the lower 80s.
Otherwise, we will be under weak upper level flow with an amplifying upper level ridge to the west of the area. The aforementioned surface boundary pushing through this afternoon will have surface ridging push in behind it.
The upper level low pressure system responsible for rounds of heavy rain the past several days continues to push southeastward and away from South-Central Texas. Showers and storms are expected to taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating as well as the upper low pushes slightly to the southeast and into the northwest Gulf waters.
1058 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016 High pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest during the next several days.
Scattered rain showers will continue to push across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving south through the region. a low pressure system was pushing southeast through the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front through Eastern Iowa. an upper level low positioned over the Texas Gulf Coast. Ahead of the cold front. mainly over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas as the cold front moves through the CWA. even though a cold front is moving through. have adjusted hourly pops and temps based on hourly trends and observations and added minor tweaks to afternoon sky/temp/wind/dewpoint grids based on the movement of the cold front.
Skies over the area have become mostly cloudy and likely to remain so for the next several days as the low in the western Caribbean begins its transit northward over the central Gulf. Rain chances will remain above climatology as low pressure develops over the Yucatan and the Keys remain in a plume of tropical moisture emanating from the Caribbean. Sunday night winds are expected to begin increasing as the low begins its northward trek. By Sunday evening 20 knot plus winds could be overspreading the lower Keys with winds in our western Gulf waters approaching 30 knots.