Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STRATUS SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXTENDED FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATING THE NERN US THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
Last night's decoupling resulted in poor low temp verification (much cooler than forecast). Will see if the highs hold across southern sections. This occurs as a broadening long wave trof digs over the mid Ms valley, in response to repeated shots of energy streaming from the Plains toward/across the Oh valley. The net effect for our FA is a slight/gradual increase in moisture in the atmospheric column, while temps cool slightly in response to the trof'ing. ridge and the northeast U. /Canadian trough. trough/dominant western ridge.
MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR FLYING IN THE REGION.
339 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM JANUARY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S HAS BEEN FUELED BY S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO JUST SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROF AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING THROUGH KS TODAY AND WILL SOON ENTER NRN OK. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS.
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG AND ICY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NWRLY BY TOMORROW AS RIDGING OFF THE COAST STRENGTHENS. LEAVING US WITH DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER.
1255 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY ONLY ALLOW A FEW SPRINKLES TO HIT THE GROUND BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WHILE MORE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW BRING MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN.
301 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.
WITH ONLY PASSING CI EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
Plains today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into the region Tuesday afternoon in it's wake. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be pretty similar to today further south.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BUT FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** THE BAREST OF RIDGES SITS OVER SO CAL AT THE MOMENT. A LITTLE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. A GOOD EDDY SPINS UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF EXITS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH WITH A WARM, DRY SW'LY SURFACE WIND BRINGING ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS TO THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SINCE SATURATION IS BELOW /WARMER/ THAN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SO ICE CRYSTAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS THIS MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN A FEW SPOTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. EXCEPT ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AS A BAND OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, REINFORCING THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING EARLY IN THE DAY AND H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 0C, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A MODEST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHOVE SOUTH BUT WITH SLACKED PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEN E-NELY WINDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHTS TROUGH WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE CROSSING THE STATE TODAY AND HIGHS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
Early morning temperatures indicate some islands of warmer and cooler temperatures, likely due to the lack of any appreciable surface features to homogenize the lower atmosphere.
THE SATURATION DEPTHS COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK LIFT AND A LACK OF ICE INTRODUCTION ALOFT WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL ELIMINATE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG AFTER 1000 AM. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STARTED A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
222 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015 It has been a very pleasant day today with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s area wide. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 30s with cloud cover slowly increasing overnight.
THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY FINDS ITSELF THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE IN SD HAS BEEN FREEZING RAIN. SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MID-TO-LATE MORNING. EVENTUALLY SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS FEATURE INTO CENTRAL IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BRING SNOWS TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND NM BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH THU BUT WITH READINGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
259 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IT APPEARS THIS WILL NOT IMPACT HIGHS TODAY AS MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TO PERHAPS AS WARM AS THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY COLD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
109 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY.
225 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER KANSAS TONIGHT DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS. COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVES TO OUR NORTH. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY SO IT WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE OUT DESPITE GOOD MIXING HELPING HIGHS TO STILL REACH INTO THE 40S NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 50S KANSAS.
345 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT A SECONDARY COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION AND THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WEAK UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RH VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EXTENDING EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
255 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 AFTERNOON MIXING HAS BEEN BRINGING SOME DECENTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE SFC THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND RESULTANT RH VALUES IN THE LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. EVEN A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN - EXCEPT IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR LIGHT SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 40S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO ANCHOR AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT RESULTS IN MULTIPLE RIPPLES FLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
1236 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF PIECEMEAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. DROP MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR PRECIP AS DENDRITIC LAYER ALOFT FINALLY SATURATES.
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO PUSHING TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL BECOME ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A LOW DIPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THIS SNOW WILL FORM AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ABOUT 1 INCH BEING TOWARD THE HIGHER BOUND OF WHAT SHOULD FALL TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS LOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER IN THE AFTERNOON AND IT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW.
VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF INTO TUESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH ORIENTATION MAY FAVOR DYNAMICS MAINLY FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
700 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND.
352 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015 West to southwest flow aloft will continue today and this should strengthen the surface lee low/trough across the west Texas/eastern New Mexico border. Not expecting a severe weather outbreak but a few of the storms will be strong possibly severe especially in the lower Trans Pecos region and Big Bend given a cape forecast of near 1000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range.
1053 PM PDT FRI APR 10 2015 A fast moving cold front will move through the region late tonight into Saturday morning. This will result in rain and snow showers, breezy winds and cooler conditions into Saturday.
402 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY DAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND PULL DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF COAST REGION.
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO SE GA THIS MORNING AND INTO NE FL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL FADE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS COLD FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS NE FL AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOWER STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEDGE-LOCAL NORTHEASTER BUILDING IN FROM THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.
210 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S COLD FROPA.
634 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON.
436 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY QUIET AND VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE ARKLAMISS TODAY BEFORE THINGS GET ACTIVE AGAIN. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION AND RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ENSUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO GREATER THAN 1.
216 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 215 AM CDT A QUIET AND PLEASANT SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA DURING MIDDAY. BEING TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH CENTER. SO CONTINUE THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
BRINGING A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME IN OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY W OF THE BAJA COAST IS FCST TO CONTINUE EWD OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLOUD INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE MODEST AND SLOW EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND NEARBY WITH THAT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH. AT THIS TIME THE LOWEST LEVELS DO NT LOOK MOIST ENOUGH TO PRESENT A FOG PROBLEM IN THE STIFF FLOW. THE REST OF THE MOISTURE FIELD AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE THERMAL LIFT PATTERN SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS WINDS AND ISOTHERMS TRY THEIR BEST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT PARALLEL.
424 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES RIGHT OFF THE BAT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
149 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A WEAK TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT.
221 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70 EXPECT FOR WARMER MID 70S FAR WEST CLOSER TO A WARM FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL VARY FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS A NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. GIVEN LATE DAY INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
627 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. BEFORE MIXING TO A SCATTERED CU FIELD AS RESIDUAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE WEST. THE LOW- LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TAUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO CIRRUS SPILLING OVER PASSING FLAT H500 RIDGE. AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES DURING THE NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER.
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OUR WAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. I FAVORED THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA WHERE WINDS REMAIN NEAR CALM.
359 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. AND SOME WEAK LATE DAY WAA WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR 60F AFTER A COOL START (COOLER LOW-MID 50S HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI SHORELINE). DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ENSURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UPWARD TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A BAND OF AC THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AND ASSOC SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MI IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPS AT BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS AS KISQ WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. THE INCREASED MIXING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROF WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FALLING OF TEMPS. A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID WEEK AND ANOTHER TROUGH TOWARD THE AREA BY THU INTO FRI. GUSTY SSW WINDS TO 30- 35 MPH MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SFC HEATING PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MIXING HEIGHTS INTO THE 900-850 MB LAYER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEADLY PIVOT EAST THIS EVENING. BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST BY SAT AFTN/EVE. TEMPS SAT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S. LIKELY HOLDING IN THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. BEACHLER 238 PM CDT SFC RIDGING SHOULD LINGER SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. LLVL MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND STREAM NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF EARLY SUN. A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THEN LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
344 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECTING A SCATTERED CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AS RESIDUAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE WEST. THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TAUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO CIRRUS SPILLING OVER PASSING FLAT H500 RIDGE. AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES DURING THE NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SRN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
230 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
626 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION.
441 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY AND WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PERHAPS FOR THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRIDGE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND HELP TO SETUP A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN.
212 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
323 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
413 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS STATIONARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AND WILL BE BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND N.
255 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015 215 AM CDT A QUIET AND PLEASANT SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA DURING MIDDAY. BEING TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH CENTER. SO CONTINUE THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MTF 240 AM CDT UPPER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR AREA RESULTING WARM AND MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION.