Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
938 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2015 Cold air beginning to retreat from Havre area as warm front nudges northward. Areas of light freezing rain that affected my northeast zones earlier today have mostly tapered off. While there may be a chance for light freezing rain overnight, it is not expected to be widespread nor will there be much ice accumulation. As a result have dropped the Freezing Rain Advisory. High winds have already been reported along the Rocky Mountain Front so have moved up the beginning time for the High Wind Warning to the current hour. Have opted to hold off on upgrading the High Wind Watch over the plains, but morning model runs suggest that a tight pressure gradient could also bring strong winds to Norris Hill in Madison County so have added them to the watch.
401 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND WIND HEADLINES TO COVER THE LOWER LYING AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY SINCE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY OTHER MINOR FORECAST CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OVER THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING FROM ALLIANCE. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE HIGH WINDS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH. AND CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
A DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SOME ENERGY TOPS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS.
426 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SINK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
255 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2015 Rising temperatures are the main story today and Saturday with a broad upper ridge building into the area. Models have really struggled to adequately resolve mixing heights in similar ridging patterns this season, and thus believe model guidance continues to be several degrees too cool with surface temperatures. An even warmer surge of 925 hPa temps on Saturday should allow temperatures to rise about 10 degrees warmer than Friday's readings with upper 60s/near 70 south of the Missouri River and mid/lower 50s to the north. Southerly winds gliding over the snow and dewpoints rising above freezing will likely favor areas of advection fog both nights.
1214 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
312 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE HELPED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
1045 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Cold air beginning to retreat from Havre area as warm front nudges northward. Areas of light freezing rain that affected my northeast zones earlier today have mostly tapered off. While there may be a chance for light freezing rain overnight, it is not expected to be widespread nor will there be much ice accumulation. As a result have dropped the Freezing Rain Advisory. High winds have already been reported along the Rocky Mountain Front so have moved up the beginning time for the High Wind Warning to the current hour. Have opted to hold off on upgrading the High Wind Watch over the plains, but morning model runs suggest that a tight pressure gradient could also bring strong winds to Norris Hill in Madison County so have added them to the watch.
1242 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
251 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SHRT WV AND SFC TROF PUSH THRU CNTRL NY AFT 12Z TODAY TRIGGERRING SOME SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NY ZONES. A RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD CREATING ENVIRONMENTS CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
WE HAD SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SO WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THE LOW CLOUDS IN HERE.
/ISSUED 730 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERES OVER THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOST OF US SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. /ISSUED 515 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE LOW/MID 30S FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SEEM REASONABLE.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
342 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE GREAT SQUASH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER QUEBEC FIGHTS IT OUT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
945 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY.
1230 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY SINCE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY OTHER MINOR FORECAST CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OVER THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING FROM ALLIANCE. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE HIGH WINDS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH. AND CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.
324 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN ND PULLING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (850-920 MB) WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUT DOWN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM FRONT SHOWN TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA DURING DAY ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE EXISTING DEEP SNOW PACK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG/ POSSIBLY DENSE / SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARMING THE SNOWPACK WITH MORE MELT LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPTS SHOWN TO CLIMB NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING.
401 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 A MUCH QUIETER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TOMORROW.
407 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE PRETTY WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT.
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS IS ABLE TO BREACH THE LOWEST STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST A BIT OF LIFT DEVELOPS DURING LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAT SUGGESTS A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG WITH SUPPORT OF BUFFALO RIDGE. AND EVEN POTENTIAL THAT AREAS WILL NOT GET VERY FAR BELOW FREEZING.
332 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
625 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF GARRETT COUNTY MD. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FREEZING RAIN. AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GARRETT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
An upper level trough is over northern Mexico just south of California and Arizona. This upper trough is slowly moving eastward and is increasing upper lift with an upper jet moving over the region. An approaching cold front will also increase lift with higher omega values across the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance that a few storms could become strong across the Davis Mountains and Terrell County where CAPE values will be the highest; however, this is not likely due to the substantial cloud cover across this area. The cold front will move into the area this evening into the overnight hours as the upper trough moves closer to the region. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be a threat starting on Friday mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos.
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND THIS MID/UPPER LOW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN EARLIER. TOMORROW NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OWING TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
1232 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. BUT DRY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME KICKS IN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHERN ND/MN. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO NORTHERN WI/CENTRAL WI THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA. WARM/DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PLAINS SHOULD EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
658 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 RETURNS ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING WILL BE INDICATIVE OF VIRGA AS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND OVER SE MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF CEILING BELOW 5000 FT BUT STILL VFR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT ABUNDANT CLOUDS ENTRAINED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE.
THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
300 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER COPIOUS CLOUD COVER.
OBS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO NE AL PROVIDING NE FLOW AT THIS TIME. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NE AL HAS LED TO PRECIP HANGING OVER NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW LIFTING NE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17Z WAS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND NW AL. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW CAL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through the end of the week.
342 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING AN ELONGATED POS TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO BAJA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING FRI AFT/EVE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E/SE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
219 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
322 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2015 Dry weather and warm temperatures today under high pressure. Cooler Friday and this weekend as a weak system clips the north state with a chance of precip north of Sacramento Friday night.
UPR LVL SW OFF TO THE E/SE W/ BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVR SFC HI P. CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ABOUND EXCEPT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOP CU BUILDING ATOP WEAK CONVERGENCE. SFC PARAMETERS ALSO QUIET WITH RELATIVELY WEAK P GRAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AND ONLY A WEAK LEE TROF BY MID-DAY OVR ERN WY.
THE WAVE HAS DEPARTED AND THE PROFILE STARTS TO DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
328 PM PDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND SOME AREAS WILL PUSH THE LOW 60S. HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DYING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AND LESS MIXING IN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AND A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT ABUNDANT CLOUDS ENTRAINED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE.
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015/ AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
Split-flow pattern continues into the end of the week as deep trough continues to pivot over the Hudson Bay area and southern stream energy moves slowly over the southwest U. Wave embedded in the northern stream trough should exit the forecast area Friday bringing gradual clearing and seasonal temperatures.
658 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF GARRETT COUNTY MD. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FREEZING RAIN. AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GARRETT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH BASICALLY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING REPLACED WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
1115 AM PDT THU MAR 19 2015 Today and Friday will be warmer and drier over the Inland Northwest.
WITH A TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH. WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW. WHILE A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. WITH WINDS REMAINING WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO LOW DPTS AND WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING LIFTS INTO A CU/STRATOCU DECK.
401 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LOWERED WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT ONE HALF GIVEN CHALLENGES SATURATING THE LOWEST LAYERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD JUST GRAZE THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE PICKING UP A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON FRIDAY.
242 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF GARRETT COUNTY MD. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FREEZING RAIN. AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GARRETT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NUMEROUS SMALL VORTICES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WANING TODAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED BEHIND THE EASTWARD- ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST AND PWATS BEGIN TO DROP. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
159 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING MUCH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
A cold front will move south into the area tonight, and have included MVFR ceilings at all terminals, and MVFR visibility at some, behind the boundary.
ITS POSSIBLE A SMALL SHOWER OR TWO TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. BUT THINKING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO YIELD PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
317 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015 WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CURRENT POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT.
308 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2015 UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 25 KNOTS. TODAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY AND AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTN IN THE RRV AND POINTS WEST ESP MID TO LATE AFTN. COLD FRONT AND NORTH WIND WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRI AFTN-EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM MANITOBA INTO MINNESOTA FRI NIGHT CLEARING SKIES.
255 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2015 UPPER TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY. A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AIRMASS DRY AND STABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE AFTN.
RHS GET THE LOWEST OVER THE MO RVR FIRE ZONES AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH THOSE WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
551 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
A cold front is currently located across North Texas and is forecast to move into the Big Country late this evening, then to the Interstate 10 corridor Friday morning. The next opportunity for rainfall will be along and behind the aforementioned cold front. Post frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop behind the cold front during the day Friday. Highs on Friday will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS NICE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAJA WITH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A cdfnt will drop into the region late Sat, bringing cooler temps for Sun. Ahead of the fnt, have trended aoa the warmer guidance, which is slightly warmer than the prev forecast.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST IFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z BUT LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015/ COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY.
As for high temps, little diurnal temperature swing with highs only in the low 40s to low 50s, with coldest temperatures far north.
Further upstream in NE, they enjoyed a semi-mild day with temperatures climbing into the lower 60s by early afternoon. For our neck of the woods, warmer temperatures will return tomorrow and through the weekend.
THIS IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS NERN UT AND NWRN CO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHEARS OUT ACROSS CO.
A cold front is forecast to move through the region after midnight, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms along with a wind shift to the north. Better forcing aloft tonight will interact with another cold front pushing south across West Central Texas to continue the potential for thunderstorms.