Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is expected to move into the DHT and GUY TAF sites by late Friday afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms may form along the cold front. All short range models have held up the next cold frontal passage slightly. It appears that Friday evening and night will be the best opportunity for highest pops areawide as the cold front moves sewd across the area. Like the previous cold front which zipped thru the fcst area about one week ago, this next cold front will likely behave in the same manner in that the atmosphere will dry out and stabilize somewhat behind it, and this is reflected in numerical weather models.
236 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the chance of rain each day, any heavy rain that might lead to flash flooding, and finally a cooler than normal temperature forecast.
338 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak area of low pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures along with enough instability over the Sierra for a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
A cold front will be charging south during the day tomorrow. The high resolution models are actually showing that the main front with the colder air will not arrive until the overnight hours, however a pre- frontal trough axis with a wind shift to the north will be pushing through in the afternoon. The low level winds will be veered enough ahead of the front such that it will most likely be detrimental to supercell structures.
Cut back on pops during the morning hours per the slower progression of the cold front tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Potential for some WAA convection to develop ahead of the main trough/cold front during the afternoon hours Friday.
The best coverage through the rest of the afternoon looks to remain south of the Mountain Parkway and especially near and south of the Highway 80 and Hal Roger Parkway corridors.
At noon the cold front appeared to be along a line from Roseau to Grand Forks to Jamestown. This jet, along with the theta-e associated with the high MUCAPEs, will shift east this morning as a low in the western Dakotas shifts east as well.
208 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak low pressure system over California and Nevada will produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms today.
The shear zone gets wiped out by Friday afternoon, as a more substantial mid/upper-level trough approaches the area from the west.
500 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight with a lee-side trough at the surface. Convergence into the trough combined with strong heating will continue to promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated 500mb ridge across the western north Atlantic extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas and northeast Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight into Friday even as low level moisture remains high across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands. Winds will be breezy Fri afternoon as the pressure gradient increases across the lower TX coast Friday.
242 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight with a lee-side trough at the surface. Convergence into the trough combined with strong heating will continue to promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
The Atlantic ridge axis will settle across central Florida, producing a light wind flow turning onshore in a sea breeze near the coast by early afternoon. With the ridge axis across central sections, there should be moisture convergence zones to the north and south. A frontal trough will press into the southeast states and push the Atlantic ridge axis across south FL.
Aloft, weak westerly flow along with broad troughieness was over the region. A much stronger trough was diving southeast into the greater pacific nw region. scattered showers and storms are likely for the higher terrain into this evening, with mainly more isolated activity for the plains and valleys. Showers and thunder may form a bit earlier than normal given the better instability and cooler temps aloft. A more significant cool front will move down the plains during the late afternoon as a relatively strong trough aloft moves towards the region, and should be located over the Palmer Divide by 4 pm-ish.
316 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the region Friday.
Temps in southern middle TN and NE AL still feel the effects of that convection due to the rain cooled air and lingering cloud cover with temps ranging from the lower 70s to the lower 80s. As ridge of high pressure that is still anchored across the region begins to slowly weaken, disturbances will glide along the northwest periphery. Generally xpct this trend to continue into the afternoon period, with the KHSV terminal having the higher prob of impact. Another upper wave from the w is then xpcted to approach the area early Fri morning, with the higher prob mainly near the KMSL terminal.
This activity should generally shift northeastward over the next day as the low moves toward northern lake Michigan. Highs Friday should be near or slightly warmer than today, ranging from the mid 80s to the upper 80s over some areas west of I-55.
Little change in the overall weather pattern expected through the upcoming weekend as a broad trough remains in place over the western portion of the country. SFO Bridge Approach.
100 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Aloft: A high-amplitude ridge was over the E Pac and extended into NW Canada. The Westerlies extended downstream from the ridge along the US-Can border. Flow over the Srn 2/3 of the CONUS was weak with trofiness over the Wrn USA and a subtropical ridge over the SE States and adjacent Atlantic. The main player in our wx will be the deepening trof over Wrn Canada. Not much will change thru tonight except everything will get slightly suppressed to the S as the Wrn Canada trof drops into ND/MT. The high will remain over the Ern USA while the cool front conts plunging S. This activity should wane 6-9 am as the low-lvl jet weakens. A fairly strong cold front for mid-August is expected to traverse the local area on Friday.
1223 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Main forecast concern in the short term will be timing of cold front on Friday. At 07z the cold front was just starting to enter the northern plains region with a stronger push southward across eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over northwest South Dakota. After that, at least for tonight, the front slows its southward progression into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow with a better push south into western Nebraska as initial piece of short wave energy drops into the region ahead of the main trough. System is expected to move off late Friday night as progressive upper trough sweeps through the region.
Meanwhile the parent upper level trough will drive a surface cold front through the region on Friday bringing and end to the showers and thunderstorms.
Low to mid level ridge will shift south of the area on Friday allowing a light sw steering flow to develop.
150 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is aligned across the gulf coast and the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. With the equatorward movement of the ridge and heating on the Florida mainland, winds have slackened to 10 knots or less except 10 to 15 knots on the outer Florida Straits.
248 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front will push off the coast tonight.
210 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 Weak high pressure today and tonight.
Weak ridging aloft will gradually build more into the northern Gulf while an upper level trough begins moving into the northern and central plains.
Atmosphere was primed with high moisture content again and little influence from weak upper level ridging. For the weekend it looks like the upper level ridge along the Gulf coast and Florida will be slow to strengthen.
321 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak area of low pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures along with enough instability over the Sierra for a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
1224 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak upr level trof wl be ovr the area today and tonight.
3 pm temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s at most locations, along with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. We will maintain chance pops during the afternoon as impressive upper level trough (for mid August) digs into the northern Plains. Ahead of this system and approaching strong cold front, very warm and humid conditions will over the cwa.
Highest coverage across central Ga where subtle trough axis coexists with 2000-4000J/KG SBCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. /Issued 447 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016/ The southeast remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface. Short term models are in good agreement as the upper ridging flattens out through the short term period, allowing increased moisture into west and north GA this afternoon.
Mid-level ridging is in the process of gradually weakening, while the main moisture axis is gradually sinking southward but still generally remaining north and northwest of the area. Placement of low and mid- level ridging suggests sea breeze associated convection should mainly stay south of the forecast area except perhaps in the far southwest. Microburst parameters remain in the low to low-end moderate category with the relatively highest potential southeast.
Friday will see temperatures remain below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1046 AM PDT Thu Aug 18 2016 A dry cold front will bring windy conditions, with blowing dust and high fire danger to the Okanogan Valley and much of the Columbia Basin today.
207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper trough over the northern/central U. A sheared Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the western fringe of the ua ridge. Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
further enhanced by mid level theta-e ridging that will linger over extreme NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. ahead of an upper trough that begins to swing E across the Plains.
A fairly robust mid tropospheric trough was noted in the 12z upper air data moving across Canada into parts of the Rockies and Plains. one ahead of the trough and one behind the trough (both around 85 knots). At 850 mb a cold front was noted extending from northeast to southwest over the northern Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon had a cold front from northern Minnesota back into the Nebraska panhandle.
Water vapor imagery clearly shows a weak trough across north texas that is helping tap tropical Pacific moisture.
Also, there will be some weak ridging at 500mb setting up over the region through the weekend as well. Even with the weak ridging aloft, the pattern still likes to be typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms for the CWA.
326 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 At 3 pm CDT Thursday a cold front extended from northern Minnesota southwest through eastern South Dakota and will continue moving east. A large region of high pressure will build into Montana and the Dakotas tonight. At h500MB a trough extended from near Hudson Bay southwest into Montana. This cold front has pushed the majority of the instability southeast of the region so any thunderstorms will be widely scattered to isolated this evening.
334 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weakening upper trough will work across the north this evening. Its associated cold front will provide some forcing across the Yampa Basin into the Park Range this evening before the brunt of the frontal forcing works onto the Front Range. Elsewhere storms will favor the higher terrain and move slower to the ENE off the ridges into the evening. Showers and small hail will favor the highest terrain.
324 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 Dry southwest flow continuing over the CWA this afternoon around the south side of upper low over central California. Little change over the next several days as upper low nearly stationary and southwest flow persists.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s, with highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s.
With little change in the weak flow pattern and dispersed low pressure over the southwest expected over the next couple days.
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER.
943 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE OTHER UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EXPECT VERY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
712 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
930 PM PDT MON APR 25 2016 FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
934 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
919 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016 THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO THE NE- KS PLAINS.
WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 LIGHT SNOW NOW ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S. TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MORE SNOW AS A WEATHER ELEMENT WEST. OTHERWISE SINCE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S DONT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT.
TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MORE SNOW AS A WEATHER ELEMENT WEST. OTHERWISE SINCE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S DONT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AN EXITING UPPER LOW IS RETREATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
837 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 NO CHANGES TO FCST WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT AND ALONG WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDED GOOD MIXING, SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THEN LAST NIGHTS LOWS WITH VALUES NEAR 60. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWRD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST.
659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE OTHER UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH LOW-LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM AND MOISTEN WITHIN THE W-SWLY RETURN FLOW. WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AMONGST A GROWING BUT STILL WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY.
745 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WRAPAROUND WILL IMPACT THE MUCH OF THE SPINE OF UTAH AND ADJACENT VALLEYS TOMORROW BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DECREASE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO UTAH.
1044 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
WE DID ADD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AS TEMPERATURES HERE AT THE OFFICE HAVE DROPPED TO 31 AND THE PRECIP TYPE WAS STILL RAIN/DRIZZLE. WITH THE HIGHEST 12 HOUR AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE VERY WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S. WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH.
SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINS RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE AREA SO THINK CONVECTION IN MID STATE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKS LOW BUT RAMPS UP LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND OMEGA INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE E/SE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE. LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH HELPING TO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE COMMOTION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS EXITS THE REGION. THE LOW WAS SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE. ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MN/WI. PROFILE DATA IS QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN ADDITION TO THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
623 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDED GOOD MIXING, SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THEN LAST NIGHTS LOWS WITH VALUES NEAR 60. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWRD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Winds should continue to decrease as the upper low over the Great Basin shifts eastward and gradients relax. These too should wane overnight with a gradual decrease in the low clouds through Tuesday morning.
1149 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE OTHER UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
535 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016 THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO THE NE- KS PLAINS.
ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY AROUND MIDDLE TN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES JUST A BIT STRONGER. BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AS MOST OTHER MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO OFFER PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND ERODE AWAY THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
Cold front will come into northern CWA late this evening and stall out across CWA. Mid/upper level ridge builds across area so not exactly a favorable environment aloft for convective initiation. Expectation is for most locations to top off in the low to mid 80s.