Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 85 71 86 71 / 50 70 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 70 86 70 / 30 70 50 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 81 68 86 69 / 40 70 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 68 84 66 / 20 70 50 70 20.
705 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Continued heat and smokey skies today under continued ridging aloft. Little change in this pattern is expected as we head into Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper trough slowly makes its way towards the Upper Midwest.
Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 70s. Model ensemble means project an upper trough riding slowly east across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic, mainly just to our north and northeast, weakening and suppressing the upper ridge to our W/SW, allowing tropical cyclone Henri offshore to be picked up and lifted to our NE with no expected impact on our FA.
/issued 302 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ Weak trough across the region coupled with a southwest flow of moisture will continue into Thursday.
1039 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Currently - Ridging extends across Florida while Hurricane Grace continues to move westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds range from gentle in the Upper Keys to moderate/fresh and gusty in the Lower Keys. This will gradually open up the pressure gradient between Grace and a ridge across Florida. For the time being, a Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the Florida Straits west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
342 PM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 An upper low centered over Idaho is bringing rain showers and much cooler air to south central MT this afternoon. The plentiful moisture and cool air has produced some low clouds, and so there could be some hilltop fog especially later tonight when the low-level flow is progged to turn more northeasterly which would upslope the terrain especially over south central MT.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 85 71 86 71 / 30 70 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 70 86 70 / 30 70 50 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 81 68 86 69 / 40 70 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 68 84 66 / 20 70 50 70 20.
Midday on Thursday, the upper trough axis will begin pulling east of the area and we will see a reduction in convective coverage and intensity.
The upper-level trough that has moved into central NV has provided the district with much welcomed cooler temperatures. These temperatures are between 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to this same time yesterday.
Have a wonderful Wednesday night! Short Term (Rest of Today - Thursday): High pressure with east to southeasterly winds. Temperatures will be the main concern with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Overnight, lows along the east coast will be above normal to near record in the low 80s overnight.
705 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 (This evening through Thursday) A very slow-moving, or nearly stationary, shear-axis/trough continues to combine with plentiful low level moisture to spark new convection this afternoon from the northern Concho Valley northeastward into the Big Country. With very humid conditions in place, expect lows to continue to be mild, dropping only into the low to mid 70s. Highs should reach into the low to mid 90s in most locations.
Look for cooler temperatures today and Thursday as well as some showers and embedded thunderstorms, mainly along the eastern Nevada border. Frost and cold conditions are anticipated tonight over parts of the forecast area with some of our colder location reaching or nearing freezing.
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Daily afternoon shower and storm chances continue into the weekend ahead of a cold front. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 85 71 86 71 / 40 70 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 70 86 70 / 40 70 50 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 81 68 86 69 / 40 70 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 68 84 66 / 20 70 50 70 20.
An approaching trough should result in scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
A cut off upper low will then drift southeast across the region late this week with unsettled conditions through the upcoming weekend. It will be warmer with highs in the 75-85F range.
521 PM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Current surface analysis shows the cold front stretching from southwest North Dakota into eastern Wyoming, sliding eastward through the forecast area as we progress into the afternoon. High pressure rises will bring breezy conditions into the region through today. By Thursday evening, the upper trough begins to slide east of the rockies and associated upper low moves east towards the forecast area.
Upper low to the east of the forecast area this evening. Models consistent with a weak ridge building into the area with a dry northwest flow Thursday. Mostly sunny skies and warmer.
Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. The latest HRRR indicates lingering thunderstorm activity areawide through at least 8pm MST this evening, with mainly dry conditions developing from south to north through the overnight hours as drier air moves in ahead of an upper trough digging into the Idaho/Nevada/Utah region. By Thursday, the aforementioned trough should be centered east of the Great Salt Lake, resulting in mostly dry and breezy conditions across central and northern Arizona.
1024 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Daily afternoon shower and storm chances continue into the weekend ahead of a cold front. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains.
This high is pushing in a very dry air mass across the region. 45 inches, which is near or breaking the lowest PWat measured at Key West. To further drive home the point regarding the strength of this high, cirrus from Hurricane Grace should be streaming in overhead but are essentially being stopped in their tracks and can go no further than Cuba. This is because the high will retreat to the west and weaken in response to Tropical Storm Henri swinging west and then northwest across the western North Atlantic. In the meantime, as the high retreats westward, dry air will continue to pivot through.
Upper level ridging remains rooted over the southeastern U. through Thursday, gradually eroding into Thursday evening and Friday as a weak upper level trough digs into the Mid-Atlantic states. This trough cuts off into an upper level low by Friday evening over the northeastern U. Looks like a bulk of the forcing for convection will come from some positive vorticity advection on the southern periphery of the aforementioned upper level trough, with a modest lobe of vorticity at the 500mb level pushing across central AL on forecast guidance Thursday afternoon into evening. We rinse and repeat for Friday as a similar scenario of weak positive vorticity advection occurs during the afternoon into evening hours around the southern periphery of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic states.
127 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 [Through 06Z Friday] High pressure will remain in place over the region today, rendering mostly light winds from the southeast. Deep ridge will remain across the area with hot humid conditions and light winds persisting.
1101 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Continued heat and smokey skies today under continued ridging aloft.
353 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The pre-frontal environment remains rather hot today as the forward progression of an H5 low has been inhibited by strong ridging. Today's temperatures are expected to reach into the 90s once more in response to this ridging, with cooler temperatures to the northwest. A pre-frontal trough will set up just east of the Devils Lake area, where winds will shift and become northwesterly, thus limiting daytime highs to the 80s. Heading into tonight, precipitation chances increase gradually as the H5 upper low approaches the area.
An anomalously deep upper level trof was digging into the Great Basin region early this morning.
An upper level ridge over the CWA combined with southerly winds continues to bring extremely hot conditions to the Northland.
Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. Drier air will push into the region on Thursday as a trough passes to our north. The pressure gradient will tighten in response to the trough with breezy southwest winds developing in the afternoon as a result. The latest HRRR indicates lingering thunderstorm activity areawide through at least 8pm MST this evening, with mainly dry conditions developing from south to north through the overnight hours as drier air moves in ahead of an upper trough digging into the Idaho/Nevada/Utah region. By Thursday, the aforementioned trough should be centered east of the Great Salt Lake, resulting in mostly dry and breezy conditions across central and northern Arizona. By Friday, dry conditions are forecast areawide as a baggy trough sets up off the California coast producing dry southwesterly flow aloft.
some weak 500 mb ridging will move over the state. upper level ridging will become a bit more pronounced. expect near normal temps with ridging aloft increasing.
Meanwhile, a well defined upper level impulse also was rotating east around the upper low over the Great Basin and this wave should pull mostly northeast through Utah into Colorado late today. Today otherwise should be a bit warmer, maybe reaching normal for much of the area, though some areas of low clouds will suppress warming early in the day mainly across the Rolling Plains.
Latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF sag a weak cold front to near the KS/OK border over the weekend, with low shower/storm chances mainly confined to northeast OK/far northwest AR.
Deep layer ridging between an upper-level northern stream trough, a TUTT, and Henri will prevail through the end of the week. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the low 100s each day.
Daily afternoon shower and storm chances continue into the weekend ahead of a cold front. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains. S/W trof axis lingers over the area into Friday which will keep shower/thunder shower chances going.
An upper vort max moving through the weak trough stretching back over central Indiana will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast through the day. However, by midday a vort max looping around the back side of a cutoff upper low meandering back to the west will move into the northeastern/eastern counties, potentially providing some forcing to create a few showers and thunderstorms over that area in the afternoon/early evening. The period will being with the recent upper trough slowly departing to the east.
SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings will begin to move in across all terminals, with the lowest ceilings and patchy fog at KCLL, KUTS and KCXO near daybreak.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 71 86 71 86 / 70 40 70 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 70 86 70 87 / 70 50 60 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 81 68 86 69 86 / 70 50 60 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 68 84 66 85 / 70 50 70 20 40.
Daily afternoon shower and storm chances continue into the weekend ahead of a cold front. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s in the mountains. S/W trof axis lingers over the area into Friday which will keep shower/thunder shower chances going.
A cut off upper low will then drift southeast across the region late this week with unsettled conditions through the upcoming weekend. Active convection from primary push of remnants of tropical cyclone Fred has pushed east of the CWA thru Lancaster County. It will be warmer with highs in the 75-85F range. Upper level trough will still be over the area through the upcoming weekend, resulting in a daily chance for pop up showers or a few rumbles of thunder.
Northwest flow aloft at 5h and a ridge at 8h and a very moist and at least slight to moderately buoyant airmass will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms at times through Friday.
Continued southerly winds help drive temps just a bit warmer for Thursday and another notch higher for Friday when heat indices may breach the triple digit mark. Upper level low is taking its time traversing the Rockies today but will quickly eject east Thursday night.
Upper low to the east of the forecast area this evening. Models consistent with a weak ridge building into the area with a dry northwest flow Thursday. Mostly sunny skies and warmer. Another upper low moves into the Pacific northwest on Friday.
A cut off upper low will then drift southeast across the region late this week with unsettled conditions through the upcoming weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclone Fred have pushed into upstate NY at 07Z. Cloud cover and neutral temp advection should result in very little drop in temperatures overnight, with readings at dawn ranging from the mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low and mid 70s across the Lower Susq Valley. Based on expected cloud cover, have undercut NBM max temps just a bit, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 70s over the highest terrain of the Appalachians, to the mid 80s across the Lower Susq Valley. Upper level trough will still be over the area through the upcoming weekend, resulting in a daily chance for pop up showers or a few rumbles of thunder.
An approaching trough should result in scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The upper trough is progged to close off across the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday, with additional scattered showers/possible thunderstorms expected. The trough/upper low is progged to remain across the region through the weekend, with diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This is largely due to the high retreating and our next weather maker drawing closer.
139 AM PDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Northeast winds will bring continued cooler than normal temperatures today.
1001 PM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Current surface analysis shows the cold front stretching from southwest North Dakota into eastern Wyoming, sliding eastward through the forecast area as we progress into the afternoon. High pressure rises will bring breezy conditions into the region through today. By Thursday evening, the upper trough begins to slide east of the rockies and associated upper low moves east towards the forecast area.
345 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Another warm/humid day is forecast today with highs in the mid to upper 80s while surface dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 70s.
H500 ridging is expected to amplify over the Mid-South as well and may limit PoPs in coverage, but for now have kept Chc PoPs in place Fri for most locations, particularly over the Delta and MS river valley.
However, an approaching upper level disturbance currently over north Texas will move northeastward and potentially spark another round of storms late tonight, with the higher chances once again over our southern counties. Most of the stronger storms will be north of our area as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted as it moves across the central and northern Plains.
957 PM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Current surface analysis shows the cold front stretching from southwest North Dakota into eastern Wyoming, sliding eastward through the forecast area as we progress into the afternoon. High pressure rises will bring breezy conditions into the region through today. By Thursday evening, the upper trough begins to slide east of the rockies and associated upper low moves east towards the forecast area.
1257 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 (This evening through Thursday) A very slow-moving, or nearly stationary, shear-axis/trough continues to combine with plentiful low level moisture to spark new convection this afternoon from the northern Concho Valley northeastward into the Big Country. With very humid conditions in place, expect lows to continue to be mild, dropping only into the low to mid 70s. Highs should reach into the low to mid 90s in most locations.
The large-scale weather pattern doesn't change much over the next 36 hours as a large area of high pressure over the northeastern CONUS continues to bring southerly flow/warm air advection to the Northland.
/issued 302 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ Weak trough across the region coupled with a southwest flow of moisture will continue into Thursday. The upper flow becomes a bit more northwest on Friday as an upper low closes off over the Northeast US.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Summer usually means a relatively stagnant weather pattern, and our pattern is settling into a typical summer pattern with high pressure dominating the southern United States. The main difference is the high is weaker than normal and thus temperatures are lower than we might normally expect. Low pressure over the West Coast will send a couple of disturbances across West Texas and eastern New Mexico causing afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop in the mountains in the Big Bend that will drift northeast into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin both today and tomorrow. The highest PoPs will be in the Davis Mountains with shower activity diminishing farther east as instability decreases.
Meanwhile, high pressure spreading across the Sunshine State will keep easterly flow in place into the weekend, while subsidence from Hurricane Grace pushes pockets of dry air into the area, which will somewhat limit the amount of convection we will see along the sea breeze. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 90s, while overnight lows stay in the low to mid 70s. By Friday and into the weekend, an increase in moisture will result in an increase in storm coverage with high pressure dominating over the area. High pressure will stay in place over the Gulf waters keeping typical summertime conditions. Relatively moist conditions and easterly winds will stay in place as high pressure dominates over fire districts.
First, isolated to scattered storms are possible Thursday afternoon as a weak warm front moves north through the area. There will be an upper level ridge overhead during the day tomorrow, trying to hinder storm development though, so right now it only looks like a 30% chance for storms, mainly south of I-70.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by this afternoon with diurnal instability and the approach of the trough. Better moisture S of I 70 should result in the highest precip chances in that area today, with lesser chances to the north. Isolated (scattered in the ridges) showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday as the upper trough closes off over PA, and convective thresholds are reached.
The upper pattern will begin to undergo some changes today as upper heights increase as high pressure begins to build across the area. As a result, high temperatures today will be warmer, topping out in the lower 90s to upper 90s. Low rain chances will remain in the forecast for the Coastal Plains tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s to upper 90s once again.
Looking ahead to today, we still have an upper trough axis pushing across the region with a broad mid level weakness extending from the Ohio Valley back through the ArkLaTex. Highest rain chances will be along/north of I-20 and across northeast LA, with influence from the mid-level ridge limiting things a bit more in the southeast. /DL/ A deep layer ridge will largely be in control through the period, with temperatures going from warm to hot over the weekend.
Hennig (Today through Friday afternoon) Summer usually means a relatively stagnant weather pattern, and our pattern is settling into a typical summer pattern with high pressure dominating the southern United States. The main difference is the high is weaker than normal and thus temperatures are lower than we might normally expect. Low pressure over the West Coast will send a couple of disturbances across West Texas and eastern New Mexico causing afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop in the mountains in the Big Bend that will drift northeast into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin both today and tomorrow. The highest PoPs will be in the Davis Mountains with shower activity diminishing farther east as instability decreases.
High temperatures will trend warmer today, with dry conditions expected.
There will be a better chance of rain on Friday due to increasing low-mid level warm air advection, and as a weak warm front lifts northeastward through our area.
Cooler weather will prevail through today before a warming trend takes hold for Friday.
Isolated (scattered in the ridges) showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday as the upper trough closes off over PA, and convective thresholds are reached.
A trough over Nevada will continue to provide a northerly wind flow across north CA and smoke will likely continue to move towards the San Joaquin Basin through tonight. The mid level flow turns southwest Friday over NCal as short wave trough moves into the PacNw.
1034 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Another hot day anticipated today, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid-90s. High pressure building into the local area has significantly dried the mid and upper levels, despite muggy conditions at the surface. Lows tonight in the low to mid-70s. Mostly dry conditions for the coastal waters of east central Florida today, as high pressure builds into the local area.
Friday a little warmer with more sun as Fred is no longer nearby. A cut off upper low will spin over the northeast during the short term period. Unsettled weather will continue with high temperatures in the lower 80s.
The pre-frontal environment remains rather hot today as the forward progression of an H5 low has been inhibited by strong ridging. Today's temperatures are expected to reach into the 90s once more in response to this ridging, with cooler temperatures to the northwest. A pre-frontal trough will set up just east of the Devils Lake area, where winds will shift and become northwesterly, thus limiting daytime highs to the 80s. Heading into tonight, precipitation chances increase gradually as the H5 upper low approaches the area.
- More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Friday evening/night as a cold front approaches.
Subsequent downstream ridging is also building ahead of this low and will result in minimal changes to the pattern compared to yesterday.
337 AM MDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The large-scale low pressure system over the inter-mountain northwest region will slowly spin through the northern and central Rocky Mountains today through tomorrow - bringing some much needed relief from the seasonal hot and dry weather we all have endured over the last 2 to 3 months.
In recent runs of short-term models, they're showing the slow movement of the low over the southern portions of the CWA and gradually lifting out late Friday. With the colder temperatures aloft, minor snow accumulations is still possible across the highest elevations. Nonetheless, the entire short-term is dominated by cooler temperatures, widespread rain and potential snow.
Another warm/humid day is forecast today with highs in the mid to upper 80s while surface dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 70s.
747 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Compact area of deep layer ridging will be centered along the AL/GA/FL border through this evening. Highs reach the lower to mid 90s. High pressure north of the waters provides easterly flow light enough to allow afternoon sea breezes near the coast.
/issued 747 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021/ Compact area of deep layer ridging will be centered along the AL/GA/FL border through this evening. Highs reach the lower to mid 90s. High pressure north of the waters provides easterly flow light enough to allow afternoon sea breezes near the coast.