Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The combination of gusty south winds and increasing high clouds, should help to keep the temps from rising into the lower 80s tomorrow.
Upper level ridging in place over the Southern Plains was providing a NW flow across this region; while troughing along the east coast moves further to the east. Left previous forecast high temperatures as is for now, which should range from the lower 70s east, to mid 70s west. Tonight will be cool with lows in the low to mid 40s under mostly clr skies. Thursday will be dominated by a strong upper ridge across the TN Valley.
/issued 927 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016/ A cold front has pushed south of the Florida peninsula as high pressure will continue to build across west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front through Thursday.
1120 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A few showers will accompany a weak cold front across the region today. Warmer weather will quickly return though ahead of a weekend cold front. However, building high pressure will help clear the sky overnight while rising heights and warm advection will maintain lows near average levels. A ridge over the Eastern CONUS is expected to amplify as a deep trough digs across the West.
At the surface, a low pressure system will be located over the Central Plains with colder air already moving into NW South Dakota by 12Z Thursday.
A low pressure system moving north of the area will bring much cooler temperatures by Thursday. Expect warmer temperatures this weekend ahead of a strong low pressure system approaching from the west.
1124 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 /18Z TAFS/ Upper high pressure will maintain VFR conditions through today, but as the surface and upper level high pressure systems move east today, gusty south winds will continue to increase as the surface pressure gradient continues to increase. Look for gusty south winds of 17 gusting to near 24kts by 16z tomorrow in advance of an advancing cold front and upper level trough.
The 500mb ridge will shift east across the Great Lakes by the end of the day, as a trough sinks over the interior western states.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to below freezing for almost everywhere across the forecast area.
In addition to the warmth, a strengthening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching upper trough will allow surface wind speeds to remain breezy overnight, and become gusty during the daylight hours Thursday. Wind speeds over east central Kansas into west central Missouri will see the highest speeds, with sustained afternoon winds near 30 mph with gusts to near 45 mph.
High clouds from the west will stream over northeast Kansas tonight helping to keep lows much warmer than average in the mid to upper 50s. Clouds begin to move in ahead of this system tomorrow afternoon, and highs will be slightly cooler than today, although still well above normal in the mid-70s.
124 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure for the remainder of the week.
Cold front is now east of our CWA and we are in the colder air mass behind it. A couple of short wave troughs along and off the northwest coast will dissipate as they come inland, so no showers are expected from them in our CWA. Main upper trough axis will pass through our area tonight, and northwest flow behind the trough will keep temps down through Thursday night.
232 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern tonight and tomorrow with light winds and decoupling tonight. This will allow for decent radiational cooling in the interior areas with temps dropping into the lower 40s in some of the normally colder areas.
429 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weakening low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight.
Mostly dry conditions return by this afternoon and will persist through late week as a weak ridge develops over the region.
209 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high pressure overhead.
In addition, upper level ridging will continue to push into the CWA as an upper level ridge axis across the southern Plains shifts east to the Lower Mississippi valley tonight.
Lows will range from the lower 50s out east to the lower 60s along and west of the I-49 corridor where winds will be stronger. Meanwhile, high temperatures should be just as warm, if not a degree or two warmer than what we saw today.
North to northeast winds have remainded gusty especially over the lower Keys, and while sustained winds have only recently picked up along the upper Keys reef, the western Straits and Gulf waters northwest of Key West have seen some of the strongest winds thus far. The deep east coast trough's 500 mb axis will swing over the Florida Keys this evening, however large-scale descent is well underway with cool air advection above the surface rapidly becoming neutral. That said, temperatures falling into the lower 60s over the Mainland next to lower to mid 70s Bay temperatures may result in a resurgence of breezy conditions late tonight, along with cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
350 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Upper level ridge is firmly anchored over the mid-section of the country while an upper trough continues to dig in along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure remains dominant just off to the east with return southerly flow increasing in response to a developing low lee of the Rockies. This warmer return flow coupled with sunny skies have allowed temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s areawide this afternoon. Clouds will also begin to increase ahead of the approaching trough out west with an accompanying cold front emerging across the Plains.
High pressure is evident at all levels across South Central Texas, leading to clear skies as temperatures fall into the 50s with a few spots in the Hill Country in the upper 40s. Clear skies under high pressure and southerly 5-10 knot winds will allow highs to once again reach the mid to upper 80s across the region, which will approach or exceed records along the I-35 corridor in the 84-87 degree range. A midlevel trough currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will continue to dig to the southeast today, reaching the Four Corners region by Thursday morning to help propagate the ridge axis east of the region. H850-925 temperatures decrease a few degrees on Thursday, which coupled with an increase in cloud cover, will keep Thursday's highs in the lower 80s for most spots.
Temperatures are in the low to middle 70s. Tomorrow will be even warmer. High pressure covers much of the southeast U.
303 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure will continue moving northward across northern Maine this evening.
The axis of a mid to upper level trough is just east the Florida peninsula with most of the Florida peninsula under the subsident side.
Mostly dry conditions return this afternoon and will persist through late week as a weak ridge develops over the region.
440 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the western U. and a broad ridge across the central U. this morning with a trough in the ern U. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes tonight and then moves into the lower Great Lakes on Thu. Because of this, went slightly cooler with temperatures for highs on Thu and went closer to mos guidance. With low sun angle and weak sunlight, this will also argue for going with cooler temperatures. There will also be an upslope component with south winds at IWD and SAW which will help with the lower ceilings developing.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will transition eastward across the region while a deep progressive upper level trough digs into the Rockies. Deepening low pressure over the High Plains will result in increasing southerly winds particularly tonight into Thursday. The strongest winds will occur Thursday as the low level jet strengthens toward 50 kts.
129 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure will build into the area today, as a large mid- level ridge builds into the eastern half of the country through the end of the week.
138 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A few showers will accompany a weak cold front across the region today. Warmer weather will quickly return though ahead of a weekend cold front. However, building high pressure will help clear the sky overnight while rising heights and warm advection will maintain lows near average levels. A ridge over the Eastern CONUS is expected to amplify as a deep trough digs across the West.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicated a broad ridge aloft over the central US. This has allowed surface pressures to continue to fall in the high Plains leading to strong southerly flow and good mixing over the CWA, which has resulted in record highs. As heights slowly fall over the next 24 hours the cold front will start to sag southward into the CWA.
An upstream dry 500mb ridge axis nears tonight and moves overhead on Thursday. Upper ridge persists through the end of the work-week.
high clouds slowly increase in coverage ahead of an upper trough slowly continues on a southeast track toward the intermountain west. The leading edge of cooler air and higher boundary layer moisture pushes into our Nebraska counties in the 09z- 12z timeframe. leading edge of cooler air and higher boundary layer moisture pushes a bit further south toward Interstate 70 during the morning while to the south gusty southwest winds develop. For the afternoon hours the 00z models show the upper trough moving east of the Rockies. High temperatures in the mid 40s northwest (Yuma) to the low to mid 60s far east through southeast (Hill City to Tribune and Leoti). For Thursday night the upper trough slowly moves across the area with main energy and moisture generally along/north of Interstate 70. Low temperatures in the low 20s west to low 30s east.
Expect another unseasonably warm mid November afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
South winds will develop as surface ridging moves off to the east, and low pressure moves down out of the Rockies.
High pressure at the surface will be prevalent across the region today, as ridging aloft builds in from the west.
243 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure moving thru Manitoba this aftn northwest of Winnipeg at 20z. Trough of low pressure south from the low through the Devils Lake basin to nr Jamestown. Main cold front located from the low and into far southeastern Saskatchewan and far northwestern ND. This cold front will drop southeast tonight. This low and upper low moves NNE with main deformation zone developing quickly over parts of central into northeastern SD.
214 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 An upper level trough moving out of northern California this afternoon will be near the Colorado Front Range by noon Thursday then to NW Kansas/SW Nebraska by Thursday evening. As the upper trough/low kicks out onto the Central High Plains Thursday afternoon, west-southwest winds should reach their peak mid to late afternoon. With the approaching upper trough heights and thicknesses begin to tumble.
With a drier low-level ridge progged to move into the region tonight, forecast models appear less favorable for widespread fog development, though it's plausible that there could be some localized occurrences in favored valley/river basin locations.
Meanwhile, low pressure will continue to organize across the Plains into Thursday.
MOS values both days are a tad warmer, around 80 in some spots.
The strong winds coupled with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s will create an elevated fire danger, although this will be tempered somewhat as low level moisture continues to increase through the day. Fast moving upper wave will shift into the central plains on Thursday with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma late Thursday night.
This will result in warmer temperatures on Thursday with afternoon maximum readings in the lower 70s. The blends are not picking up on the range of overnight lows from the thermal belt ridges to the cold valleys. For example the low at the JKL airport (Jackson NWS)this morning was 43, while the nearby Kentucky Mesonet site in the valley had a low of 30. The pattern is very conducive to significant differences in ridge and valley temperatures again tonight and Thursday night. A lee-side trough will move out from the Rockies and deepen as it heads towards the Plains. Ridging will sharpen up in the east, bringing well above normal temperatures to conclude the work week. The trough will continue to intensify as it heads into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions by early this weekend, bringing a sharp cold front through the area.
121 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough over Northern CA today is progged to dig into the southwest states tonight before emerging over the Central High Plains late on Thursday. A strong cold front will arrive across the area on Thursday night.
The cold front looks to drop south across the forecast area a bit quicker than previous model runs suggested. The front may be through the plains by late this afternoon, slowly creeping through the high country through Wednesday night. The front may stall across Carbon and Albany counties though until midday Thursday as the sfc cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado and develops an inverted trough across the high country. Therefore, snow may not really develop across the mountains until midmorning THursday when the strong upper trough moves across Colorado and finally drags the sfc/midlevel front and moisture across our CWA. Have higher confidence that upslope favored locales could see 6+" of snow, especially along the Pine Ridge.
Tonight as the main upper-level trough axis summits and clears the continental divide, snow will begin to fall over the central and southern mountains of Montana and most of Wyoming while the trough energy becomes somewhat disconnected for northeast Montana.
/issued 414 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/ Upper level ridging is over the central part of the country with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper trough currently over the west coast will begin to move over the Central Plains on Thursday. The base of this trough is expected to move over the CWA with high winds mixing downward towards the surface.
246 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weak trough/boundary which had been pushing across our CWA has come to a halt near the I-70 corridor, and should gradually wash out in place. With 850 mb temperatures near 17C, temperatures should get at least to the mid 70s in the afternoon, and perhaps even warmer over the southwest CWA, where the NAM MOS guidance gives highs closer to 80.
In it's wake, surface and upper level ridging will begin to build in from the west along with deep dry northerly flow.
Once this burns off mid-morning Thursday, the main aviation concern looks to be increasing srly flow with wind speeds exceeding 10 knots thanks to a tightening pressure gradient with low pressure developing over the Plains. the region will remain under the influence of weak high pressure at surface and aloft.
1245 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high pressure overhead.
223 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Current surface analysis place trough/frontal boundary over the northern/central plains with ridge over the midwest. Upper level analysis places ridging over the midwest with trough digging over the northern Sierra into the Great Basin.
136 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Surface map shows a ridge of high pressure bisecting the mid state with return southerly flow already bringing excessive warmth to areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau.
421 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure for the remainder of the work week.
456 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weakening low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky today through Thursday. Conditions will be drier on Thursday, as southerly flow kicks in and temperatures warm into the lower 70s. A lee-side trough will move out from the Rockies and deepen as it heads towards the Plains. Ridging will sharpen up in the east, bringing well above normal temperatures to conclude the work week. The trough will continue to intensify as it heads into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions by early this weekend, bringing a sharp cold front through the area.
Lows will range from the negative single digits north to the lower teens south of Pierre. By evening, snow will spread east as the high lifts out.
310 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cold front from last evening has pushed well east of the forecast area as of 08Z, with clear skies and brisk northwest wind in its wake.
1118 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 For the remainder of the afternoon, a cold front will continue to push south across the CWA through the evening and overnight. Afternoon high temperatures will be affected both by the position of the warm front in addition to rain-cooled areas impacted by ongoing storms. As a result, afternoon temperatures will range from the lower 50s across northern Missouri to the mid 60s to lower 70s for the southern counties. A Canadian airmass will fill in behind the aforementioned cold front tonight, bringing Thursday night lows back to the sub- freezing mark for most areas.
Meanwhile to the north, a cold front will be passing through as well. High pressure will then shift over the area in earnest this afternoon in a rather progressive pattern. Heading into tonight, a tricky temperature forecast seems to be shaping up as the cold air well in place along with mostly clear skies as the mentioned high pressure will still be passing through and exiting the area.
412 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Much below normal temperatures are in store from today through the weekend as a broad ridge of Canadian high pressure settles into the region.
330 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Closed low over the Hudson Bay with broad trough into the Great Lakes Ridge amplifying over the western Conus.
There isn't much of a thermal gradient associated with the front itself but the airmass that fills in behind is certainly cooler. Most locations highs today will be anywhere from 20 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday, as the front makes its way toward the I20 corridor by mid-morning. West of the I27 corridor will see more sun filter through by mid-afternoon with temps about 10 degrees warmer where there is the most sunshine.
/issued 831 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017/ A nearly zonal flow remains across the region this evening with an area of high pressure at the surface building in the wake of a dissipated cold front.
Brownsville radar currently shows some fading activity across portions of the Lower Texas Gulf waters with some additional convection south of the Rio Grande. the H5 trough west of Mexico will push slowly eastward keeping some mid-level perturbations moving across the region. or a degree or two cooler.
Moist NE flow behind the frontal boundary will support an increased risk for fog and freezing drizzle along the east slopes of the Black Hills and adjacent plains later this evening into Friday morning, esp as the focus for ll FGEN shifts NE tonight and the mid levels dry some. Warm front aloft snow will shift NE through Friday with 1-4 inches expected from mainly the Black Hills into NW SD, highest across NW SD. Just east around the Black Hills and far western SD, there is a risk for some freezing rain Friday afternoon with the initial start of precip. GFS ensembles continue to indicate low confidence in temp forecasts given the high spread among members, thus expect temp forecasts to undergo several iterations the next few days.
1126 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 Cold front was located across the NE TX Panhandle as of 5Z and should make it into CDS around 9Z. /issued 522 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ Winds will become more light and variable overnight before a cold front pushes through from northeast early morning. Overnight, a cold front currently in Kansas will accelerate south and enter our northeast counties around midnight. Also, weak isentropic upglide could wring out some light drizzle north of the front - although the low-levels dry out quickly behind the front so that potential also looks limited.
Despite the cooler temperatures today, it will be a nice day. Clouds will increase tonight as an upper level wave moves down across the High Plains into the Midwest and Ozarks Region.
1149 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 A weak wave of low pressure will move east along a cold front drifting south across the area tonight with another reinforcing cold front moving southeast through the region Friday.
1219 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Arctic high pressure was centered over central Saskatchewan with its axis nosing southward across the Dakotas. A battleground between high and low pressure will set up tonight across North Dakota.
The guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the overall large scale pattern, which is essentially northwest upper flow over our area, transitioning a bit toward the end as the western ridge tries to move east.
Deepening cold air advection pushes lows tonight below freezing for much of the area.
First issue to deal with will be the sub freezing temps despite the cloud cover.
347 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cooler regime will dominate the forecast next several days, closer to or even below average.
VFR conditions with development of gusty northeast winds behind cold front first half of forecast period. Otherwise, a cold front will drop south through the area this evening/overnight with gusty northeast winds. Low level moisture may pool enough ahead of the cold front near the Red River for a period of MFVR ceilings at SPS Friday morning. /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ A cold front will move southwest across Oklahoma and north Texas tonight, shifting winds to the northeast, and bringing somewhat cooler weather into the region.
Area of showers and thunderstorms making decent progress toward the Great Valley early this morning and should arrive at the terminals between 06-09z with continuation of some showers behind the initial development all the way into mid morning as the system cold front swings southeast of the region.
A ridge of high pressure will be pushing into the FA keeping wind speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range. The GFS begins a sharper amplification of a Canadian rockies upper ridge beyond 12Z Sun.
Tonight and Friday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a secondary cold front dropping south into northern Illinois early this afternoon. A 1048mb arctic high pressure system will be building southeast across the northern Plains and western Great Lakes through the night. Lows will fall into the lower single digits below zero across the north.
A mild westerly flow aloft will remain in place across the region through the upcoming weekend, followed by strong high pressure aloft across the western states for the first half of the week. The ridge over the area will continue to flatten overnight as a weak trough crosses the Pacific Northwest states. High clouds have spread into northern and central Utah ahead of this trough, with some midlevel clouds across far northern Utah. These clouds are expected to keep warmer temperatures across much of the area overnight. This cloud cover will be maintained tomorrow ahead of a cold front that is expected to cross the area late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.
Arctic high pressure will bring another day with considerable sunshine on Friday.
300 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 An Arctic cold front will move through Friday night, followed by bitter cold weather over the weekend.
324 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Latest guidance suggests freeze warning for tonight needs to be expanded area wide as 1045 mb Canadian high pressure ridges southward through the eastern half of the nation.
It will be much cooler today and for many along and east of the CO/KS border below normal with highs ranging from the mid 40s east to mid 50s/near 60 far west.