Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Any updrafts that can organize a mesocyclone will also be capable of becoming severe though. There may even be more than one round of storms but the best chance for multiple severe storms would be in the afternoon and evening as a strong short wave trough crosses the region.
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Subtropical upper ridging continues to strengthen across Mexico and the desert southwest, with height rises today into tomorrow across TX. With a high sun angle, dry soils, and strong thermal ridging, hot conditions result.
Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across much of the area following widespread rainfall earlier this morning and will figure into both mild overnight lows and the potential for patchy fog, especially across portions of northwest AR and far eastern OK where high clouds will be slower to approach.
206 PM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Warmer and drier weather is expected over the region on Tuesday with near normal temperatures.
Further west, more isolated high based showers and storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon across portions of the ContDVD and into the high valleys, with breezy westerly winds leading to near critical fire weather conditions once again across the San Luis Valley.
High pressure will remain over the region through the next few days, with no headlines expected.
Potential is there for elevated storms near broad warm frontal zone from just north of I-40 across western Oklahoma, east southeast through central Oklahoma late tonight.
438 PM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Warmer and drier weather is expected over the region on Tuesday with near normal temperatures.
Not expecting any significant precipitation overnight as high pressure aloft over Old Mexico & Texas continues to build eastward. Dry, VFR conditions to persist through the forecast period under high pressure influence from the east.
651 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
/issued 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022/ Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago at most locations early this afternoon. Along with the somewhat depressed temperatures, the northeasterly winds have carried in improved low-level moisture, with post-frontal dewpoints most in the lower to middle 60s as of 1850Z. This won't be an issue over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico, where storms will erupt during the afternoon.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week leading to much warmer weather. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store late this week and Heat Watches are in effect for the lower elevations.
VFR conditions will prevail during the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. With high pressure and ridging settling in overhead, we can expect heat, humidity, and therefore heat index values to increase today and tomorrow. Overnight lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees warmer and in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations and low 80s for our coastal and island locations.
Dry, VFR conditions to persist through the forecast period under high pressure influence from the east.
759 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Dry high pressure will move out over the Atlantic as the wind becomes southerly with the heat and humidity returning Tuesday.
A cold front will stall over the region late week, before a storm system potentially arrives over the weekend. A stationary front will linger across SE GA and across the waters through the overnight as high pressure remains inland.
/TW/ Tonight through Tuesday: The subtropical ridge extending from TX eastward along the Gulf Coast region will continue to have the greatest influence on the weather early this week, resulting in primarily rain-free, hot and humid conditions. The exception may be for locations along/north of the Highway 82 corridor where mesoscale convective systems emanating from the energetic westerlies may bring the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): An H5 ridge across northern Mexico will build across Central Texas Tuesday. Tuesday's highs are expected to be a degree or two warmer than they were this afternoon as 850mb temperatures creep into the 26 to 28 degree Celsius range, which supports widespread upper 90s to 100s. Temperatures are then expected to be a degree or two cooler Tuesday night as winds calms down under a mainly clear sky.
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Early afternoon satellite imagery and observations show no shortage of boundaries across central and western Nebraska with an old lingering frontal boundary extending from SD into central/eastern Nebraska, a north-south inverted trof/dryline across western Nebraska, and numerous convective outflow boundaries floating around.
Overnight temps will remain in the low to mid 70s. (Previous Discussion) A slightly drier airmass will prevail on Tuesday, as a lower-amplitude upper trough passes north of the local area. Temperatures remaining above normal, in the lower 90s, though urban areas of Orlando could reach up to 95.
929 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Moisture from post-tropical cyclone Alex extends from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and through the western Atlantic waters. As Alex races to the east-northeast tonight, a ridge stretching from the Caribbean to Puerto Rico will try to flex into the region late tonight into Tuesday. The ridge will push the moisture over Cuba north-northwest and over the area tonight.
By mid-week, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the east, bringing warming temperatures into the 80s and 90s.
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 High pressure grants tranquil weather and comfortable temperatures through Tuesday. By Tuesday night shower chances will be on the increase as a low pressure system approaches from the west and lingers through the end of the workweek. Clouds will likely increase during the day as a short wave trough approaches from the west.
Thunderstorms over south central MT and north central WY late this afternoon-early this evening could produce pea-size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph as drier air moves into the lower levels and evaporative cooling under the storms contributes to strong wind gusts at the surface. Tuesday night, an upper air ridge will move into the region and cause any showers and thunderstorms to dissipate and skies to become mostly clear.
A cold front extended from southern WI to southern NE with warm/moist airmass ahead of the front. Tonight: At least scattered (or clusters) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, ahead of a cold front gradually moving southeast across the cwa. Drier air will filter into the area on north winds, so lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Ridgetops and many large valleys will experience winds gusting to 25 mph during this time as well.
A cold front will stall over the region late week, before a storm system potentially arrives over the weekend. A stationary front will linger in the vicinity as high pressure persists inland.
The arrival of a weak ridge of high pressure should result in partial clearing later this morning and afternoon.
The higher resolution models offer different solutions in both areal and spatial coverage.
A cold front will move into the Southeast Wednesday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridging into the Carolinas with a stalled frontal boundary across southern GA. Hi-res guidance is fair agreement showing isolated convection developing along the sea breeze to our east and along the higher terrain of NC along with overnight convection outflow boundaries becoming active in the Upstate. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A cold front will move into the Southeast on Wednesday but it will be slow to cross the forecast area.
202 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A weak cold front moves southeast across the plains today, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms possible over north- central and central Montana as a result. Another cold front moves across the area Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to southwest and central Montana.
/28/ Broad/flat upper ridging currently extends across northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. A northwest flow regime is in place from the Central Plains and into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tuesday: The subtropical ridge extending from TX eastward along the Gulf Coast region will continue to have the greatest influence on the weather early this week, resulting in primarily rain-free, hot and humid conditions. The exception may be for locations along/north of the Highway 82 corridor where mesoscale convective systems emanating from the energetic westerlies may bring the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts.
A transitory upper ridge will move into the region late tonight and into Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
The remainder of the day should be rain-free as mid-level ridging continues to strengthen over much of the Lone Star State. However, high temperatures will likely remain in the low 90s near the Red River where thunderstorm outflow from this morning's complex of storms as well as increased cloud cover should result in slightly cooler conditions.
After a cold frontal passage tonight, dry and pleasant weather will move in for Tuesday. Lows tonight are forecast in the low 60s north/west of Bloomington, mid 60s to the south. Tuesday should be a dry, partly cloudy, and mild day with a transient high pressure feature crossing IL behind tonight's cold front.
An upper level ridge axis will build eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region Tuesday and Wednesday, while low level ridging noses westward across much of the Gulf. Hot temperatures are otherwise expected both days as the upper ridge axis builds overhead. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the lower to mid 90s inland and in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees near the immediate coast and beaches. Lows Tuesday night should range from around 70 or the lower 70s over most inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast and beaches, or even around 80 degrees along the barrier islands.
Outside of storms, it was a muggy night with temps in the lower 70s and dew points just a few degrees below the temps. Shear parameters do not support tornadoes this afternoon and evening, but the higher cape values with some mid level drying will support downburst wind potential.
The two environmental points that may lend some support to this are: a) storms may struggle some with the capping in place, especially if it does not erode as fast as forecast, and b) the low-level jet looks fairly weak.
Another chances for showers and storms arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night, with slightly cooler air building into the region late in the workweek into the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures to fall into the low to mid 70s as expected as southerly flow continues to drive temperatures over radiational cooling overnight.
215 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today with a crossing cold front. Models depict the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region late today, bringing widespread rain to the area. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable Wednesday.
A cold front will stall over the region late week, before a storm system potentially arrives over the weekend.
A weak cold front will attempt to enter the area today, but will not make much progress. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current observations show a very weak cold front has moved into the northwestern Permian Basin this afternoon. A better westerly wind component tomorrow will help push the thermal ridge farther east causing very hot temperatures. Even the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains will easily exceed 90s so proper hydration will be very important for any outdoor activities tomorrow.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 591mb mid-level ridge remains anchored over South Texas through Wednesday (and beyond) continuing to provide near to slightly above seasonal temperatures and dry rainless conditions. The gradient begins to relax tonight and more so on Wednesday as the ridge edges slightly north and eastward moving mid-level trough allows for pressure rises over the Plains States.
The precipitation is being generated by weak low pressure at the surface and a corresponding short wave aloft that will move east of the cwa this morning. This wave will induce low pressure over the Plains and then move east across Michigan Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain mild around 70 or low 70s NE ND/NW MN with more sun and a tad cooler in thicker cloud cover south.
Additionally, a weak cold front will come sliding in from the north this afternoon and eventually stall across central Kentucky, and some models indicate showers/storms could develop in response to surface lift from the front. An upper level trough will swing through the region during the day, and upper level lift/forcing associated with the trough as well as surface convergence from the frontal boundary will result in showers/storms during the day and evening hours.
Tuesday through Wednesday morning, high pressure from the south moves up to cut off the Pacific moisture feed, leaving only leftover nuisance sprinkles, hit-and-miss variety, especially later Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Wednesday mid-day through Wednesday afternoon/evening, the large ridge of high pressure will dry conditions out temporarily and allow temperatures to warm up again.
(Today) Isolated-widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of northern AL/southern TN through the early morning hours, with this initial activity being driven by a subtle increase in the low-level jet in response to a mid-level vort max progressing northeastward across the OH Valley. This boundary will continue to focus the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms across our region for much of the day, with activity expected to spread southeastward as a strengthening and expanding mid-level ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley increases west-northwesterly gradient flow aloft.
320 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Weak surface ridging over Florida today will setup light and somewhat variable winds, with the west coast sea breeze producing westerly winds in the afternoon.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that brought much needed rainfall to northern Michigan yesterday is now draped from north of Lake Huron southwestward to northern Ohio. Attendant cold front has also cleared the area to the east with higher surface pressure slowly encroaching from the west. Broad/weak troughing remains overhead that'll gradually become more zonal with time late this afternoon into tonight. Highs ranging from the upper 50s/near 60 in the coolest lakeside spots to the low-mid 60s for most (some low 70s possible across far northeast lower and near Saginaw Bay). This is mainly due to a long wave trough which will remain anchored across southeast Canada through the first half of this weekend. A short wave moving through the upper trough aloft in combination with daytime heating may bring a few showers to the region Wednesday.
For Tuesday, heights will be on the rise across the tri-state area as a ridge builds over the region. Warmer temperatures are likely as well, given the lack of convection. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s for most of the area away from the immediate coast. Zonal flow with a hint of troughiness over the Great Lakes region will contribute to a relatively calm short term. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 90s away from the Coast with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Early afternoon satellite imagery and observations show no shortage of boundaries across central and western Nebraska with an old lingering frontal boundary extending from SD into central/eastern Nebraska, a north-south inverted trof/dryline across western Nebraska, and numerous convective outflow boundaries floating around. Wednesday looks to be a dry day as the axis of the departing upper trof moves to our east and high pressure builds in at the surface.
245 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary south of the region, across southern NE, with a weakening cold front/trough across SD. One more day of unsettled and cooler weather as the next stronger disturbance over western WY moves east over our area later this morning and afternoon. Highs today will be in the 60s and lower 70s, with some 50s across the higher Black Hills. Wednesday will be the start of a somewhat drier and warmer stretch of weather as a ridge slowly builds over the western US. Warming trend continues late week into the weekend as ridge continues to build to the west and gradually shifts eastward. Even with the building ridge, a couple of disturbances are likely to pass over at least parts of the area during the period.
Otherwise, cooler and drier air will filter into the region. Overall, forecast remains on track as two MCVs and a cold front bring ample chances for showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. After midnight, the cold front is shown to drop into the northwestern forecast area. Should any of these storms move over areas that received the higher end of totals, the additional rainfall could prolong any ongoing ponding/flooding. A trough is forecast to sweep across the central Plains during the day on Wednesday morning before moving overhead Wednesday evening.
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Outside of a few showers into this morning, drier and cooler conditions will dominate into early Wednesday. While the lingering area of precip will shift east and weaken with time main cold front is still set to slowly drop in this morning. Chances for showers/storms will quickly increase by Wed afternoon with the next trough dropping in from the north. Definitely leaning towards the lower end at this point with lack of deeper moisture. More significant trough will be carved out as piece of Pacific energy ejects out of the NW states and another trough drops out of Canada from the Hudson Bay closed low. Cutoff upper low will only make slow progress east across Ontario over the weekend keeping the area on the "cooler" side with highs in the 70s.
957 PM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Warmer and drier weather is expected over the region on Tuesday with near normal temperatures.
1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today with a crossing cold front. Models depict the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region late today, bringing widespread rain to the area. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable Wednesday.
Chances for deep convection today remain best along the Raton Mesa with hefty inhibition and thermal ridging at H7 keeping PoPs here near zero.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be drastically reduced today as a an upper level ridge builds to the west, pushing the storm track farther north in the western zones.
Chances will taper off from west to east Wednesday afternoon with the passage of the associated cold front, with just small chances lingering in the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky Wednesday evening.
This will create a temperature difference between the southwest which is forecast to range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. The northwest is forecast to see high temperatures from the lower 60s to upper 60s. Skies are going to clear up by the late morning hours as subtle ridging builds over the Northern Plains helping increase temperatures into the 70s.
An upper trough is currently making its way toward west Tennessee this evening, while a front stalls across the Tennessee/Mississippi border. A subtropical height ridge was centered over northern Mexico, extending into the southern half of TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. As was the case last night and this morning, storms will develop in the strong baroclinic zone over the central plains, then ride the periphery of the ridge across the Ozarks into the Midsouth Tuesday and Wednesday.
A weak trough will be stalled out over the region which will keep the showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the day.
The combination of a building upper level ridge and a strong low level thermal ridge will bring very hot temperatures to our area again this afternoon and early evening. For tonight, expect warm and humid conditions with lows in the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday morning.
Lingering moisture and low level thermal trough should result in an evolving CU field. Otherwise high pressure settles in for a dry day today. Onshore flow will keep things cooler near the lake.
253 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 We're starting out this morning with zonal to slight ridging at 500mb, with the main low over Ontario set up with a trough extending west along the MT/Canada line. At the surface, a weak ridge will extend from central Canada down through ND and northeastern SD/western MN. An elongated area of low pressure stretching from southern Alberta through eastern MT will be extend to another low set up between southwestern NE through TX. For today, the 500mb will slowly sink south across ND and MT, and into SD/MT, with the main trough sliding over eastern SD and into southern MN/IA by or shortly after 12Z Wednesday. High pressure will slowly build in from the west overnight through the day Wednesday.
1218 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
RAP/NAM develop a sloped, frontogenetic sfc north of the low, roughly across northern IA into southwest WI. However, if you are looking for warmth more typical of the season, the GFS and EC have been starting to trend toward ridge building as we move into the new week. SPC Cluster analysis shows ridge building in all 4 of its clusters, with the EC putting most of its eggs in the 2 stronger ridging pattern baskets. potentially much warmer in the EC.
Wednesday will feature a slightly cooler and drier post-frontal airmass, with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees.
356 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today with a crossing cold front. Models depict the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region late today, bringing widespread rain to the area. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable Wednesday.
/issued 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 591mb mid-level ridge remains anchored over South Texas through Wednesday (and beyond) continuing to provide near to slightly above seasonal temperatures and dry rainless conditions. The gradient begins to relax tonight and more so on Wednesday as the ridge edges slightly north and eastward moving mid-level trough allows for pressure rises over the Plains States.
This has on occasion sparked some showers and thunderstorms mainly across the Upper Keys and over the waters southwest to northwest of the Lower Keys. Weak high pressure will then once again develop across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to generally light southerly winds through the end of the work week.
A weak cold front moves southeast across the plains today, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms possible over north- central and central Montana as a result. Another cold front moves across the area Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to southwest and central Montana.
High pressure will bring and dry and warmer day today.