Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight this boundary will push further south as a cold front, as the upper level trough axis dips southeast across the states. Anticipate cooler temperatures Sunday as cooler air moves into the region, with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s area wide.
The low ceilings/visibilities are expected to improve around 18z or shortly after. A cold front continues to drop south through west Texas this evening with thunderstorms developing along and behind it. However, will leave the High Wind Warning in effect for Guadalupe Pass since surface pressure rises/cold air advection will likely keep funneled wind speeds of 40-50 mph going overnight.
1134 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Closed low over the Northeast CONUS with slight ridging into the Western CONUS. Enhanced returns over Northern Lincoln county with areas of IP falling and freezing as it comes in contact with roads. Upslope flow with warmer air aloft being advected over colder surface. Most of the highs will be realized late. Lows in the low 20s to around 30.
High pressure to the north will elongate eastward into the Atlantic and winds will become southeast after midnight. Low temps in the lower to mid 60s except upper 50s in Okeechobee. Winds will veer out of the east then southeast overnight as high pressure ridge axis to the north elongates eastward into the Atlantic. Also, there will be an inverted trough just offshore northeast FL. A tricky wind forecast due to uncertainty with the inverted trough.
After sunset, precip chances for the Lower RGV will be reduced even more. Although lingering chances will be possible across the Northern Ranchlands and Northern Coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Even so, with moisture values still high in the lower levels, showers and maybe isolated rumble of thunder will be possible. High temperatures will be noticeably lower as breezy north winds usher in a cooler and drier airmass.
1212 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and cold airmass will remain in place across the area through the weekend.
Soundings around Miles City and Baker show a chance for some freezing drizzle. As it exits the area tomorrow afternoon winds across southeastern Montana will get a bit gusty during the afternoon, but should quickly decrease once the low moves out.
754 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Snow will taper off later today as low pressure system move further East of the region. Dry and quiet conditions build into the North Country Sunday as high pressure returns.
High pressure will dominate this period. A mid level ridge axis will be oriented from the Gulf Coast northwest through Iowa to southern Minnesota. Until then, high clouds spreading north out ahead of the low will arc to the east across the northern tier of the U. , over the top of the ridge axis west of Wisconsin. There is a considerable dry layer in the lower levels that will need to be eroded. We start to see better jet dynamics and a ridge riding short wave that get the forcing/saturation kicking in a bit better into Sunday evening so will carry pops CWA wide for Sunday night.
Dry weather is expected through Sunday as an upper ridge moves in.
Should see a good deal of sunshine along with some high thin cirrus clouds over northern and central zones the remainder of the day where the driest air will reside, while a bit more clouds and a low chance for a few afternoon showers will be possible over southwest Florida where deeper moisture and then remnants of a frontal trough resides. It will be a very warm day with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 over interior locations, but cooler readings (lower 80s) along the coast due to a developing onshore flow. Lingering LIFR/IFR cigs and vsbys from some low clouds and fog will improve to VFR by 14Z as the low clouds and fog dissipate. Winds and seas continue to diminish and subside this morning as high pressure builds in with tranquil boating conditions expected through Sunday.
Clouds will also be on a gradual increase along with lowering ceilings as an upper trough approaches the area. M CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ Upper-level ridge will maintain mostly sunny skies across the region for most of the day. As ridge shifts east, mid-level clouds to increase from the southwest. Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low to mid 80s across the ArkLaTex.
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows and upper level low over New Mexico and Arizona. 00Z models continue to indicate a piece of energy will break away from this upper level low and track northeast across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. The low level warm air advection ahead of the wave should produce 3 to 6 ubar/s of up glide on the 290K isentropic surface Sunday afternoon and into the early evening before this moves off to the east of the area.
1122 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Light rain should end this morning as low pressure exits. Building high pressure should result in dry weather this afternoon through Sunday. Several crossing low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances for the upcoming work week. Although rain is exiting the region amid building high pressure, cloud cover will remain through most of the day, limiting temperature increases. Dry weather is expected to continue Sunday,though some increase in clouds is expected in the afternoon in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure.
1019 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and will settle over the area on Sunday.
(ISSUED 548 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 ) The low MVFR CIGs remain just outside the NRN terminals this morning. Dry conditions will be seen today as upper level ridging transitions to SW flow aloft. and especially by Sun afternoon as a SFC warm front lifts north into SRN AR. Multiple upper level disturbances will lift north over the warm front late Sun into Sun night. primarily across the SRN third of the state along and south of the warm front in the warm sector.
expect skies becoming mostly fair with mild seasonal temperatures today as high pressure and subsidence prevail. Several inches of wet snow is possible in the high country again.
High pressure builds in later Saturday into Sunday.
Surface analysis this morning shows that high pressure ridging from the north is gradually strengthening over the TN Valley. The ridge will slide eastward through today as a developing storm system getting more organized over central TX will track towards the SE US over the couple of days.
A cold front will result in cloudy and, in some places, cooler conditions today with a chance for light rain for areas along and north of Highway 2 - most likely along the north shore towards late- morning. A low pressure developing across central Manitoba will move east Sunday, with the associated cold front approaching from the west.
Have adjusted grids to reflect a somewhat cooler scenario for today, especially this morning, and a somewhat more gradual clearing/thinning of clouds from the south. It is possible that IFR/MVFR ceiling erosion could occur sooner than forecasted per upper level ridging influences building into the mid state region, but on the whole, leaned toward most recent GFS LAMP guidance values which illustrate a reasonable timeline progression of stratus ceiling erosions at terminals.
Upper ridging begins to build over the region today from the N Carib and S Gulf amplifying up the E Coast and holding through Sunday. The surface front is stalling and washing out over S FL early this morning while dry high pressure builds into the Deep South. The high pressure area to slowly move eastward to the Carolinas Sunday.
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Short wave ridging over the forecast area this morning, which is helping to keep the lull in the precipitation going through at least most of the day today. At the surface a ridge of high pressure is dominating the area, bringing steady northeast winds and cool air. Rain should gradually start to move into the area from west to east Saturday night into Sunday morning as a closed off low slowly lumbers its way eastward and into the High Plains. Good moisture advection ahead of the mid/upper trough as well as the low level trough should provide enough moisture to produce areas of rain through the day on Sunday.
Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting isolated showers on the distant Florida Straits beyond 30 nm south of the Lower Keys. Surface wise, a nebulous ridge lies near our entire region, resulting in light and variable winds of 5 knots or less along the reef and northward with southeast to south near 10 knots on the Florida Straits. Despite deep layered large scale ridging, a light southwest wind will allow cloud line genesis and perhaps a few showers. Plenty of insolation and light mostly southeast to south winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
A low pressure system will bring a few showers producing mainly light rain amounts into this evening.
840 AM PDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Warmer today under high pressure aloft with gusty north winds near the mountains.
1210 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure builds in later Saturday into Sunday.
1001 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure building into the region will ensure fair weather through Sunday.
Drier air will gradually mix in as a high pressure ridge builds in from the SW.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: Western CONUS begins under split flow with the base of a trough over the Four Corners and its axis facing back towards the central US plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The ridge parts crests over Montana and drops back toward Nevada and California. Farther upstream, another trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and back into the Bering Sea where its being fed modified arctic air. COnditions should remain dry as the ridge exits the area. Tonight through Sunday: British Columbian Trough will move on shore and cross over the Canadian Front Range as it slowly dips south.
747 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Snow will taper off later today as low pressure system move further East of the region. Dry and quiet conditions build into the North Country Sunday as high pressure returns.
The partial sunshine in the north should help warm temperatures into the lower 60s. Southern areas will still be mild, but slightly cooler in the mid-upper 50s. On Sunday, models are in good agreement in progressing an upper trough eastward to the southwestern high plains by late in the day. In fact conditions dry from west to east ahead of a weak surface cold front through the day, albeit remaining cloudy in our far eastern zones in the afternoon.
High pressure will begin to build back in over the area today and Sunday with drier conditions.
Light winds will persist through today as high pressure settles over the region. Winds will then gradually shift to the south this evening and increase on Sunday as low pressure pushes into the area. High pressure will dominate this period. A mid level ridge axis will be oriented from the Gulf Coast northwest through Iowa to southern Minnesota. Until then, high clouds spreading north out ahead of the low will arc to the east across the northern tier of the U. , over the top of the ridge axis west of Wisconsin. There is a considerable dry layer in the lower levels that will need to be eroded. We start to see better jet dynamics and a ridge riding short wave that get the forcing/saturation kicking in a bit better into Sunday evening so will carry pops CWA wide for Sunday night.
The upper ridge over the region this morning will move south today as a W-NW flow aloft pushes into the PacNW. Temperatures will be slightly warmer compared to yesterday, with highs slightly above normal. A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Boise River near Glenwood Bridge. Another warm and dry day today with a upper level ridge over the region. High clouds will increase from the northwest ahead of a cold front early this evening. The cold front is associated with a developing upper level trough over Western Canada which is forecast to move southeast into the Northern Rockies Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, expect a cold front to shift winds to the north late this evening with low cigs and precip possible toward the end of this TAF period. As the low passes east high pressure will build in behind it.
Surface winds over the CWA will become more easterly through the period as high pressure shifts east of the region. Meanwhile aloft, a ridge axis will likewise shift east through the region. Tonight, a digging and deepening storm system moving into the Southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly flow aloft across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This, in addition to warmer temperatures aloft, will result in slightly warmer lows tonight as they range from the lower 50s across Northeast and East Central Mississippi, to around 60 over locales along and west of the Mississippi River.
A disturbance will flatten the upper level high pressure ridge today, increasing the westerly flow aloft. The shift of the flow will also bring cooler air into the area for Sunday, as high temperatures of mostly mid 50s to mid 60s today cool mostly into the 50s for Sunday.
826 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Light rain should end this morning as low pressure exits. Building high pressure should result in dry weather this afternoon through Sunday. Several crossing low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances for the upcoming work week. Dry weather is expected the rest of the day as high pressure begins to build in, though a stratus layer is expected to persist as low level moisture remains locked under a temperature inversion. Dry weather is expected to continue Sunday, though some increase in clouds is expected in the afternoon in warm advection ahead of the next area of low pressure.
536 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low slowly moving east across the Desert Southwest. A weak nose of the low level jet will also develop in the afternoon over the southeast portion of the forecast area, further enhancing the lift. Tonight the precipitation will end from west to east as the closed low transitions to an elongated trough and shifts the lift east of the Tri-State Area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 46 79 58 / 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 43 76 54 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 43 76 52 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 39 73 49 / 10 0 0 10.
/issued 427 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): During the period, closed 500 mb low pressure will transition from the Four Corners area, into northern Mexico, and across the Lone Star State. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be in a southwest to northeast mid- level flow as a result of this pattern, which, coupled with the intrusion of a cold front on Sunday, will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms across the BRO CWFA for much of the short term forecast period. Despite the aforementioned cold front intrusion, a moderate to breezy onshore flow will ensure well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures for the short term forecast period.
Past morning upper air data along with various GOES imagery inputs, continue to show a deep upper cyclone over the Desert Southwest with an axis of mid level deformation extending northeast into southwest/central Kansas. Based on radar trends and short range models, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread north-northeast across western Kansas today as a series of H5 vort maxima cycle northeastward across the high plains within a difluent flow aloft downstream of a closed low anchored across the Desert Southwest. Although instability will remain fairly limited, ample lift present north of a frontal boundary across the southern Texas Panhandle combined with a +70kt jet aloft streaming across the high plains will continue to provide sufficient support for periodic showers with embedded thunderstorms.
522 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Arctic high pressure will drift over the area tonight. Wind will also become a factor toward morning as the ridge axis drifts over the I-44/I-70 corridors in Missouri and Illinois respectively. The ridge axis will continue moving east across the Ohio Valley and down into Arkansas by late afternoon. This should put the CWFA into warm southwest flow in the low levels. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs are in general agreement that a maturing low pressure system ought to exist east of the Rockies somewhere between International Falls, MN and Dallas, TX.
Cold front has now moved well to the east of the forecast area this evening. Only areas in extreme northeast and southeast are still above freezing at this hour.
Overnight, drier low level air associated with building arctic high pressure will lead to few-sct low level cloudiness and eventually mainly clear skies on Monday. Return southwest flow around this high will increase somewhat by midday Monday, particularly kmbs where gusts to 20 knots or so will be possible by afternoon. Light flow out of the westerly quadrant will continue to promote light cold advection into tonight while SE Michigan's position along the northern flank of the high poses a decoupling quandary, critical for a chill forecast.
859 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 The cold front crossing the region this evening with widespread rain developing overnight.
A ridge off to the west is generating northwest flow aloft over Northeast Montana tonight. Much warmer temperatures from increasing heights will preclude dangerous wind chills tonight. Today through Noon Monday: Northwest flow with the weak ridge upstream will lead to dry and variably cloudy conditions through these periods. Strong Downslope winds and WAA at the surface will also lend to warming condition through mid day Monday with Highs possibly above freezing for areas of the Missouri Breaks. the winds themselves may be able to generate blowing snow from recent snowpack before freezing temperatures is reached around noon and generate some visibility drops and drifting. One the temps break freezing surface snow will likely begin to crust which should slowly stop blowing snow.
although speeds will not be anywhere as strong as those on the ridges. gusty westerly winds will continue on the high ridges and upper east slopes of the Front Range as noted above. Otherwise it will be a dry and warmer day.
302 PM PST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure will result in valley inversions and dry conditions through Monday.
730 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 23z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure building deeper into Kentucky from the northwest. However, it will not be strong enough to clear out the low clouds through eastern Kentucky and thus our low temperatures will not be as cold as they could have been. Even so, temperatures falling into the lower 20s will likely refreeze most wet spots on the roads as the night wears on. Cooler air continues to slowly filter in across eastern Kentucky with the cold front exiting well off to our southeast now. This will only allow highs to get back into the low to mid 30s for highs. As the high pressure ridge settles overhead for Monday night, skies will clear and give way to a cold night with lows back into the teens.
A strong cold front has advanced well east of the forecast area. A dry weather pattern thus in play with strong and cold high pressure over the region. Low temperatures over these areas should remain well above freezing so precipitation should be in the form of rain only. appears that most of the area north of I10 corridor will fall to freezing or below tonight.
417 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 A real raw day across the forecast area as a cold front moves through southeastern United States. A few changes in the thinking for tomorrow as high pressure should move in a little bit quicker than anticipated so the rain chances should remain along the coast and over the coastal waters for the most part tomorrow.
Concerns are for the lower desert zones where impacts from extremely low temperatures can cause busted water pipes and threats to vulnerable populations in Las Vegas and elsewhere. Many locations were in the lower 20s to upper teens. In fact many locations will be a few degrees cooler.
659 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday.
1034 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 The cold front crossing the region this evening with widespread rain overnight.
Expect cold overnight low temperatures with single digits to teens across much of the high country. Low temperatures are once again forecast to drop into the teens to single digits across the high country.
413 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure southeast of the region, with west-southwest winds bringing warmer air into the area. Westerly winds are a bit breezy at times over portions of northeast WY to northwest SD on the back side of the high.
708 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather until the approach and passage of a late week cold front. Stratocu should persist this evening under broad upper troughing and cold advection.
937 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday.
/Issued 258 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Tight temperature gradient present across the area today as the cold front settles over the CWA. Temperatures will rebound into the 40s across the north, but as the front continues to sag southward into south GA by tomorrow afternoon, the high temp will occur early with decreasing temps through the day.
707 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure over the midwest will move east across Ohio tonight and Pennsylvania on Monday.
Winds/seas over the marine area will continue to decline as gradient ascd with high pressure well east of the state shunts farther Ewd over the open Atlc.
727 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure builds into the area and remains through the first half of the week.
402 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Large upper level trough over the CONUS has nearly all areas inland of the coast under pretty cold temperatures. High pressure from the Pacific will attempt to build over the area in the coming days, but will be suppressed by multiple systems swinging across the northern states. Models also show a cutoff upper level low off the southern CA coast, that will linger and help to advect warmer air from the south to our area.
923 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure builds into the area and remains through the first half of the week.
A warmer westerly flow will develop over the Great Basin Monday ahead of a cold front.
Flow across central California is turning more east/northeasterly on the backside of a weak trough dropping south through the region. Expect moderate easterly breezes through the Kern County mountains and desert this evening as the trough exits. Winds will otherwise be decreasing as a Pacific ridge of high pressure noses in behind the trough. Models build the ridge inland during the next couple of days as an upper low closes off in the Pacific west of Baja. Temperatures will moderate a bit, so another hard freeze is not expected in the San Joaquin Valley, but there will still be areas of frost in sub freezing temperatures as well as more patchy fog.
612 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure over the central plains will spread a ridge across ohio into pennsylvania tonight.
912 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 The strong cold front has move offshore this evening and will move out to sea tonight. High pressure well to the west will begin to ridge across our area later tonight and remain in control of the weather into the middle part of the week.
932 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure should maintain dry weather until the approach and passage of a late week cold front. Some of the stratocu has eroded as surface ridging builds in under broad upper troughing, though mid an upper level clouds continue to stream across the region.
902 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Quiet but very cold weather will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight as Arctic high pressure builds across the area. As the high shifts eastward, southerly winds will begin to bring warmer air into the region beginning Monday afternoon when high temperatures rise into the teens and lower 20s.
933 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region overnight into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.