Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Confidence: Medium to High Main concern overnight will be some chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms over the east and northeast as the warm front aloft continues to retreat. High pressure over Wisconsin continues to move east as low pressure and an associated boundary west will advance north tonight, keeping most of the convection over the Dakotas heading into Minnesota. Lows tonight will remain in the lower 60s east to the lower 70s over the west as milder air and more moisture advect northward. Sunday still looks rather warm and breezy and all trends continue to point toward a day in the upper 80s northeast to the lower 90s over central and western sections.
319 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will follow a weak cold front dropping south across the Mid Atlantic region and stalling in the Carolinas through Monday.
Mid/upper-level ridge axis extends overhead and northward into the northern Plains this afternoon with scattered elevated convection just to the northwest of our CWA in a low-level warm- air advection regime. As of this writing the main cores have remained off to our west, generally moving northeast up the front side of the ridge. Upper ridging will move off to our east while a deepening trough in the western US advances eastward.
304 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Upper ridging remains in place over the Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. Tonight, the upper ridge doesn't move much at all, and this will help keep skies mostly clear.
Models still want to bring the low 90s and even mid 90s for most urban areas west of the Plateau, so kept temps similar to yesterday with Nashville again hitting 94 and even 95 degrees. On Monday, the upper high will move east as Cristobal moves northward from LA to AR.
221 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A deep trough of low pressure makes its way across the Pacific Northwest overnight, arriving in the Northern Rockies this morning (this afternoon in northwest Montana). The incoming cooler airmass will also act to tighten pressure gradients this afternoon, resulting in gusty winds. Expect overnight low temperatures on Monday morning to continue the cooling trend and be about 10 degrees cooler than what we experienced late last week. Cloud cover will hold off freezing temperatures in the valley. During the day on Monday, the trough that brings us cold, snowy weather this weekend deepens and starts to move east. The deep trough of low pressure continues its journey east and skies begin to clear.
The upper ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down and moving east allowing for some relief in temperatures, albeit a small amount of relief.
140 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Cooling trend continues today as the trough overhead prevails.
High pressure providing this nice weather will push east of the area tonight as a warm front lifts north through the region. Increasing heat and humidity will then be seen Sunday and especially into Monday as a rather strong southerly airflow overtakes the region ahead of a cold front and low pressure across the Northern/Central Plains. Attention then turns to remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal interacting with incoming cold front from the Plains.
With a tightening pressure gradient in response to low pressure deepening on the lee side of the Rockies. mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures will continue in this pattern as high pressure remains aloft. although the threshold for warm low temperatures records today are a couple of degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. expect breezy conditions to continue into the overnight hours tonight as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight ahead of an approaching cold front which will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms back to the area along with cooler temperatures later this week.
122 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A cold front slides across this evening and will be south of the area late tonight. High pressure builds in with less humid air for Sunday into Monday. Upper ridge will stay situated west of us Sunday, with a trough offshore. High pressure will set up from the Northern Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, while ridge aloft strengthens.
1136 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Diminishing winds and clearing skies tonight behind a strong squall line that moved from west to east across the High Terrain and Plains. Deep upper-level troughing over the northwestern CONUS will likely continue to promote shower & thunderstorm chances through at least Monday w/ a significant cold frontal passage on Monday expected to plunge 700 mb temperatures into the single digits to around 0 C by 00z Tue.
223 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather for today. Mostly clear skies prevail today with a 1020mb high pressure system building in from the north. High pressure and northerly flow will help keep the area dry and slightly cooler. Overnight, slightly cooler than average temperatures takeover with the help of optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Warm and increasingly humid conditions, along with little relief expected in terms of a breeze, with high pressure, surface and aloft in control.
This is due to subsidence on the western side of Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico and southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper low currently over the Pacific Northwest pulling hot low level air from northern Mexico.
936 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Diminishing winds and clearing skies tonight behind a strong squall line that moved from west to east across the High Terrain and Plains. Deep upper-level troughing over the northwestern CONUS will likely continue to promote shower & thunderstorm chances through at least Monday w/ a significant cold frontal passage on Monday expected to plunge 700 mb temperatures into the single digits to around 0 C by 00z Tue.
132 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Sunday. The high will remain over the area on Monday. Don't think the southern half of the fa will see dewpoints that low, but they should drop into the lower or mid 50s. The high will continue to build into the region on Sunday, and will remain over the area into Sunday night. Near seasonal highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s will fall into the 55 to 60 degree range Sunday night. Monday starts with the TS Cristobal nosing almost due north along the western edge of the Mississippi and an upper ridge in place over the Ohio Valley along with a dry easterly flow.
The current synoptic setup places central Indiana in an area of strong subsidence with high pressure over the Upper Midwest and a cold front pushing farther south. Elsewhere, a broad upper trough is making its way through the northeast U. But, it's the remnants of Cristobal that will be the main focus of the short term period since high pressure will keep conditions dry today through Monday night.
As Tropical Storm Cristobal pushes northward, a ridge in the Midwest will slide eastward around it. High pressure will keep conditions across the TN Valley dry and push daytime highs a degree or two higher in the lower 90s. Under cloudy skies, southeasterly winds will start to increase overnight and keep lows mild in the lower 70s. With high pressure off to our east, it will limit activity, QPF and winds in our eastern counties. Rainfall totals will be low, less than an inch, with the highest amounts expected west of I-65. Between the precip and vast cloud cover, daytime highs will be 'cooler' in the 80s. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than normal, reaching the lower 70s.
This will leave a warm and humid airmass in place under continued southerly flow, with afternoon highs around 90 and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoons with the highest chances over the interior with the sea breeze collision. Tropical Storm Cristobal moving north through the north-central Gulf of Mexico and weak high pressure to the east of Florida is producing a tight pressure gradient across the coastal waters.
1004 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Rest of the weekend continues to be cooler than average temperatures and breezy winds.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s. With the colder temperatures, the higher elevations will start to see snow falling overnight into Monday. Reimer Upper trof moving thru the region will weaken but bring more showers (and perhaps a weak thunderstorm) on Monday. Greatest chance of precip will be over the mountains, as downslope winds will be breezy for the lower elevations.
950 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle over the area today with a chance of a few showers.
With very warm 850-mb temps (20-22 C) locked-in below the upper- level ridge, surface temperatures will again surge near 90 degrees this afternoon. And yet, the latest run of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF), as well as the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, show solutions a little further west, closer to the I-49 corridor.
Inverted-v profiles would suggest damaging wind gusts as the main hazard once again, but the likelihood of significant gusts is much lower as forecast sounding data suggests more veering in the lower levels, versus the largely uni-directional profiles we had yesterday. A significant cold frontal passage on Sunday night will contribute to abruptly cooler temperatures across the area for Monday.
412 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will continue to provide east-southeast flow today, and the upper level ridge will also help to keep the mid Mississippi Valley warm and dry.
With the amount of dry air we have aloft over the region, these winds should help to mix some of this down to the surface, taking afternoon dew points from around 70 into the low 60s. The lower dew points, along with the 15-20 mph gusts, should make low-90s temperatures a little more bearable.
Near or below freezing temperatures likely for many areas Monday morning with warmer and drier weather returning by midweek. Strong cold front moved through the region last night with very cold temperatures expected today through Monday morning. Skies are expected to clear tonight, with cold dry air and efficient radiative cooling many areas around the region will see near or below freezing temperatures by Monday morning.
1037 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled height rises at nearly all the MAN levels this morning, revealing the building western Atlantic ridge in the wake of northward moving Tropical Storm Cristobal. Isolated showers continue to wax and wane within a thin zone of confluence to the southwest of the Lower Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis will build back across Florida tonight, allowing breezes to diminish further on Monday.
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 (Today and tonight) Slightly cooler (or "less-hot") air will be drawn west into Oklahoma/north Texas today, ahead of the northward-moving Cristobal.
700 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle over the area today with a chance of a few showers.
The 590dam ridge at 500mb that has persisted over west Texas will slowly start to break down today through tonight. This will be due to an upper level trough out west and landfalling Tropical Storm Cristobal effectively pinching off the upper level ridge. As a result, temperatures today will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but nevertheless, will still be a hot day with high humidity values.
Near the warm frontal zone, backed low-level flow coupled with enlarging hodographs during the afternoon into the early evening will support supercells with strong low-level rotation developing in the warm sector. Additionally, depending on how far north the warm front ends up, an increased tornado risk will accompany enhanced low level helicity associated with the frontal baroclinicity. Chances for showers and/or thunderstorms persist through the middle of the week as a long wave trough/closed mid level low loiters over the region. Cooler temperatures expected with this pattern and in turn the overall threat for severe weather will be minimized. We dry out and warm up later in the week as the trough pushes east and as a ridge develops across the Rockies and High Plains.
Quiet night across the region as an upper ridge prevails. Strong upper level high pressure will continue today with sunny skies this morning and some higher clouds working into southern sections this afternoon. Expect another hot day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. The higher temps will be along and north of I-40 where more sun is expected.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week as another weakening cold front moves into the area. An upper level trough will continue to deepen north of the forecast area as well, pushing a surface cold front into the northern Midlands, with deeper moisture returning. With a generally SW flow through tonight, expect overnight lows to once again be in the low 70s.
The broad wave trough over head has kicked off some showers to the northwest of us while the Sierra. Impacts are expected to be on the lower end. Slippery roads will be possible and recreational hikers or campers at the higher elevations may be affected by adverse weather. Come Monday we'll start to see a pattern change which will bring warmer and drier weather to the region.
Upper ridging remains in place over the Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. Tonight, the upper ridge doesn't move much at all, and this will help keep skies mostly clear.
410 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Upper ridge remains firmly in place across the central US. Ahead of the front, highs will remain the lower to mid 90s, with another day of heat index values 95 to 100, and southerly winds at 20 to 35 mph.
/Today through Monday/ Ridge axis directly atop Iowa this morning with nearest ridge- riding convection located N/NE across MN and WI. A hot and muggy couple of days ahead as the low-level thermal ridge slides in. Precipitation chances will be NIL as the region resides within subsidence beneath the mid/upper-level ridge.
646 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will follow a weak cold front dropping south across the Mid Atlantic region and stalling in the Carolinas through Monday.
621 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather for today.
956 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure prevails over the Mid-South today, as current temperatures rise to the mid 80s. High temperatures today will be in the lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100F. Quiet night across the region as an upper ridge prevails. Strong upper level high pressure will continue today with sunny skies this morning and some higher clouds working into southern sections this afternoon. Expect another hot day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. The higher temps will be along and north of I-40 where more sun is expected.
Surface winds will gradually veer through the period as Tropical Cyclone Cristobal moves inland and an onshore flow resumes at the aerodromes. /issued 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The main issue in this portion of the forecast will be the impacts swell from Tropical Cyclone Cristobal will have on the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. Aside from the impacts at the coast, dry and increasingly hot weather is likely across the BRO CWFA with Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley sandwiched between Cristobal to the east and 500 mb high pressure to the west.
259 AM MST Sun Jun 7 2020 Below normal temperatures and daytime breezy conditions will persist through Monday as a low pressure system moves just north of the region.
Upper ridge remains firmly in place across the central US. Ahead of the front, highs will remain the lower to mid 90s, with another day of heat index values 95 to 100, and southerly winds at 20 to 35 mph.
517 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A low pressure system moved through the area yesterday bringing wet weather along the warm front with overcast skies that kept the temperatures from reaching as high as originally expected. This system brought a juicy wrap around rain band with some lightning along the edge of a cold front through the area last night. Additional moisture is expected with the later system, with the highest QPF to the north and west. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The dry and cool air associated with this pattern will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight and again Monday night. Yet another deepening trough will move into the northern Great Basin today and toward the Four Corners by late Monday. This s/wv will bring very dry and cooler air to the state tonight and Monday night. As winds decrease overnight each night, we expect temperatures to drop below freezing in the high country. A ridge develops by mid-week, with warming daytime temperatures.
636 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will continue to provide east-southeast flow today, and the upper level ridge will also help to keep the mid Mississippi Valley warm and dry.
552 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will remain in place today, leading to mostly clear skies and light northeast winds. A warm front lifting north through the Western Great Lakes will allow for some mid/high clouds to spill over this evening.
High pressure will then be in place across the waters through the rest of the period.
For Monday, the lee troughing will continue to prevail. A cold front will eventually traverse southward.
Mid-level ridge holds strong over the region tonight through Monday, keeping that frontal boundary over the Plains nearly stationary. Southerly flow will continue as a result, bringing in warmer and more humid air. Looks like we stay mostly dry through Monday night as the mid-level ridge continue to hold.
121 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will remain in place this afternoon maintaining light northeast winds. A warm front lifting north through the western Great Lakes brings some mid/high clouds this afternoon and evening. Winds slowly start to shift tonight rotating to southeasterly by Monday morning as the high slides toward the East Coast.
Widespread freezing temperatures will occur in many lower valleys near and north of Highway 50.
241 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Upper trough remains to the west this afternoon producing fast southwesterly flow over the forecast area. A jet streak has rounded the base of the trough and is headed toward the forecast area from the southwest. Any storms that do develop over the higher terrain and move into northeastern Wyoming will likely produce strong to severe gusts due to the relatively fast low and mid-level flow over the area. The upper trough will remain to the west on Monday. Any precip would then spread eastward Monday night as the upper trough shifts eastward. Mainly dry weather is then expected through the rest of the week with warming temperatures as an upper ridge builds over the area.
The low pressure circulation in central Idaho, continues to produce high elevation snow. Thunderstorms are also developing on the periphery of the low, mainly from Lemhi County through southwest Montana. Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage through the afternoon as the low slowly moves into southwest Montana.
For Monday, the cold front approaches slowly from the northwest, and our temperatures should boost into the 90s once again for highs. The experimental HRRR is clearly the outlier for how slow the cold front/precip makes it to the east, and pretty much holds off on our CWA from getting precip into overnight Monday night.
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected with heat indices in the low to upper 90s.
A weak surface boundary (cold front) continues to slide southeast across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians this afternoon, all while mid/high cirrus advects northward from TC Cristobal into the southern Valley/Plateau/Mountains. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 74 / 10 30 20 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 92 71 89 72 / 0 20 10 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 92 71 88 72 / 0 20 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 90 66 89 66 / 0 10 10 30 30.
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A cold front will stall north of our area tonight, then gradually dissipate through the middle of the week.
The air mass supplied by the high has brought lower dew points today, but they have not fallen quite as fast as was forecast, with low level moisture being stubborn about mixing away. Ridges and open terrain will be the warmest, with lows likely around 60. What is left of Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the Mississippi Valley on the western side of the upper ridge. However, before that, nearly full sun again on Monday will result in a sizable diurnal temperature change, with readings soaring to 85-90 underneath the upper ridge. A modifying air mass in the flow between Cristobal and the high to our east will bring us increasing dew points, and Monday night will not be as cool.
Temperatures are running two to four degrees cooler than this time yesterday but more importantly so are the dewpoints as drier air moved into the region overnight.
344 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 An amplified upper-level ridge axis continues to move east across the Mississippi River Valley while a deepening western trough slides east across the western US.
1048 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Deep upper trough was situated over the western CONUS with a upper low center over OR. It will be a warm afternoon across the high plains with afternoon temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Inverted-v profiles would suggest damaging wind gusts as the main hazard once again, but the likelihood of significant gusts is much lower as forecast sounding data suggests more veering in the lower levels, versus the largely uni-directional profiles we had yesterday. A significant cold frontal passage on Sunday night will contribute to abruptly cooler temperatures across the area for Monday.
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 As of mid-afternoon, an upper level ridge axis stretches from the western Great Lakes southward through IL, while a pronounced upper trough exists over the western CONUS. Quiet and relatively warm conditions can be expected through the evening and overnight with the area remaining positioned between the ridge to the east and trough to the west. Tomorrow, TD Cristobal will progress north through LA and AR while the western upper trough approaches the central High Plains. Forecast high temps are in the low 90s tomorrow afternoon with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s given the continued moist low level airmass.
Increasing mid-level dryness and the expansion of the low- level thermal ridge will promote sfc temperatures in the 100-105F range for most locations with the hottest temperatures between 107- 115F along the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.
218 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather through Monday.
316 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights deep mean-layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean. The low level ridge axis reaches west across Florida, although it reaches an abrupt end as it encounters the eastern fringes of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Meanwhile, the lower tropospheric ridge will build west across Florida, regaining ground from Cristobal's cyclonic envelope.
Some scattered cirrus debris is making its way to southern MI around the ridge from convection currently over the U. Early week warming trend will kick in tonight as a 590dam ridge begins to slide east into the Great Lakes.
The dry and cool air associated with this pattern will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight and again Monday night.
131 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather through Monday.
An anomalous upper low featuring -30C temperatures at h500mb has moved into the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move east tonight and drive a Pacific cold front into cntl Nebraska Monday afternoon.
Once convection does initiate, best tornado potential will be near/along the warm front where storm relative helicity is maximized and LCLs are lower, and storm mode will be discrete (given boundary relative storm motion > 45 degrees).