Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This closed cyclone will continue to roll eastward acrs the Gulf states today forming a large Rex block complex acrs the mid into eastern CONUS through early Friday. With less ambient fog, some higher cloud ceilings and mixing northeast sfc winds, temps today should have an easier time to get into at least the lower 30s in many areas, with the south pushing the mid 30s at ties especially with any lower stratus thinning or areas at times under more of a mid deck. The clouds and sfc winds should keep temps from dropping out of the low to mid 20s for overnight lows, but a clearing patch and sfc wind decouple over snow cover supports some teens.
520 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Closed low will move along the LA/AR border region this morning with light rain/snow mix pinwheeling across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Temperatures are now expected to remain just above freezing where precip falls, which will mitigate any ice potential. The position of the inverted trof axis and associated moisture across the area will allow the very light precip to linger into midday before dissipating/exiting the area.
This moisture may help to form areas of freezing fog tonight into Friday morning.
Behind today's cold front which is now pushing east through Louisiana the short term will see seasonal temperatures and sunny skies. Cooler air will start to filter in so areas of the Hill Country and Austin metro will struggle to hit 60 degrees for a high today, while the Rio Grande and San Antonio Metro's warm into the mid 60s. The low finally moves far enough east as high pressure continues to build in overnight for the surface winds to decrease. The light freeze could also get into some of the more rural areas of the I-35 corridor, with the urban centers remaining above freezing.
These showers will continue to linger through Thursday morning as the upper level cyclone continues to exit to the east. Overcast skies will continue in central Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas through most of Thursday, which along with the CAA will help keep high temperatures in the 40s across most of Oklahoma and in the low 50s across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
High pressure remains positioned over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region today. Although there may be some breaks in the low clouds at times during the day, it will be a mostly cloudy day with mid to high clouds around.
659 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 An upper level low pressure system passing south of the region as it moves eastward will bring a chance of flurries along and south of the Ohio River tonight. The upper low will bring some moisture and ascent to areas south of the Ohio River as it pushes into the western Tennessee Valley this evening.
Lack of moisture in dendritic growth zone could allow some of the precipitation to fall as light freezing drizzle. High pressure ridge from Northern Plains across the Great Lakes holds while low pressure system lifts offshore of the East Coast. As the high becomes bigger weather factor, it appears that we finally will see some more sunshine as we work into the day on Friday.
The region currently sits in a bit of a col between high pressure across the Upper Midwest and areas of low pressure across the Midsouth and far northeast. Lows will range from the low 20s in the ridges towards the I-80 corridor, to mid/upper 20s elsewhere. The deep/closed low aforementioned cross the Midsouth will meander eastward Thursday into Friday before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday. The Pittsburgh CWA will remain on the northern periphery of this low, resulting in persistent northerly flow through much of the lower troposphere through the short term period. With ridging and relatively warm air across the Upper Midwest into Ontario and Quebec, there isn't strong cold advection despite northerly flow.
There is also the possibility that elevated surfaces could see a light glaze of ice this morning, primarily in areas that are sitting right at or below freezing.
934 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure extends from James Bay to northern WI, resulting in light ne sub-850mb flow. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Definitely a quiet January night across the Northwoods with both mid and surface based ridging building directly overhead. Deep layer high pressure is forced to remain centered across our area through the remainder of this week as southern stream low pressure passes by well to our south and deep troughing pivots across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Details: Uneventful weather set to continue today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of said high pressure will continue over the forecast area with above normal temperatures still occurring.
Thermal profiles suggest that much of the precipitation will be rain at least early on in the lower elevations, although the freezing levels and strength of a warm nose aloft again vary significantly in the models. The other complicating factor is the steep lapse rates under the upper low. Confidence has risen that we will reach warning criteria for snow in the higher elevations of the mountains from Blount county north to Johnson, so will upgrade the watch to a warning for these areas.
614 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure over the region will make for quiet weather through the weekend. Freezing drizzle over the Finger Lakes region and Southern Tier has been becoming much less widespread and lighter over the last few hours, likely coming to an end by morning. The low stratus trapped under the inversion will persist through Thursday night into Friday morning. Even though there will be some sun on Friday, highs are expected to stay below freezing everywhere except in the Wyoming Valley and SW of the Catskills where some downsloping will warm the lower atmosphere a few degrees.
408 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure over the region will make for quiet weather through the weekend. Freezing drizzle over the Finger Lakes region and Southern Tier has been becoming much less widespread and lighter over the last few hours, likely coming to an end by morning. The low stratus trapped under the inversion will persist through Thursday night into Friday morning. Even though there will be some sun on Friday, highs are expected to stay below freezing everywhere except in the Wyoming Valley and SW of the Catskills where some downsloping will warm the lower atmosphere a few degrees.
Temperatures are just cold enough aloft for some lake effect snow showers or freezing drizzle near the lakeshore today through this evening, but amounts should be very light.
With the warm air advection in place, it will be warmer today with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s. VFR conditions through the day with breezy S-SE winds before a cold front moves through the area tonight. Deteriorating conditions today, with SE winds 10-15 KT, veering southerly and increasing to 15-20 KT by this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
552 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 A vertically stacked upper low over the Arklatex region with an inverted upper level trough to the north will shift east with time. This isn't an ideal overall setup for a significant snow (or mixed precip) event for our area with the main low so far south, but guidance does continue to indicate that the northern extent of precip will continue to rotate around the main upper low over southern MO over the next few hours before overall lift gradually weakens after 15z/9am.
911 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure over the region will make for quiet weather through the weekend. As of 3 AM, freezing drizzle over the Finger Lakes region and Southern Tier has been becoming much less widespread and lighter over the last few hours, likely coming to an end by morning. The low stratus trapped under the inversion will persist through Thursday night into Friday morning. Even though there will be some sun on Friday, highs are expected to stay below freezing everywhere except in the Wyoming Valley and SW of the Catskills where some downsloping will warm the lower atmosphere a few degrees.
A closed low will cross the Midsouth and trek eastward Thursday into Friday before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday. The Pittsburgh CWA will remain on the northern periphery of this low, resulting in persistent northerly flow through much of the lower troposphere through the short term period. With ridging and relatively warm air across the Upper Midwest into Ontario and Quebec, there isn't strong cold advection despite northerly flow.
205 AM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Pacific energy arrives this morning from the west and will push a cold front through the area today. Further east a combination of the stalled out cold front providing surface convergence and jet interactions aloft generating divergence will produce the best precipitation chances along end east of a Forsyth to Hardin to Sheridan WY line from late afternoon through tonight.
/issued 422 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Dry west to southwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will provide subsidence through the period. High temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds. Temperatures at a few locations across the northern ranchlands may briefly reach the freezing mark. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s across the ranchlands to the low to mid 40s across the Rio grande Valley. Another surge of high pressure arrives Friday with moderate northeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW TORNADOES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. BENEATH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE.
203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP'S BACK IN.
WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ENJOY FAIR SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS. BETTER CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE MARINE LAYER THINS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST FOR THE MID- WEEK PERIOD. FOLLOWED BY RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND RIDGING ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD ENSURE SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS INLAND.
1109 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THE UPPER LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE UPPER LOW. STARTS OUT WARMER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER A WET AND COOLISH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS ALSO ON THE RISE WITH WARMING ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD.
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE MID RANGE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES AS FLAT/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS.
HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS TO MOVE ACROSS. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TUESDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-5 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS.
Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this morning, with strong lift associated with it. Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms over I-20 corridor.
A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH.
WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES.
220 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W.
AFDABQ 1154 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the Ozarks for tonight.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE ON TUESDAY SO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT.
BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
1144 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PLAGUED US ALL WEEKEND WILL BE OVER WRN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK BUT IT'S NOT DONE WITH US YET. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WA STATE AND WON'T MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE JET STREAM HAS DROPPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BUT WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE CLOSED LOW KEEPING UNSETTLED WX IN THE PICTURE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
/ISSUED 740 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/ UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW. BUT THE NAM IS INDICATING SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVR THAT AREA DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING. WHICH IS MOSTLY IN THE 70S OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPR TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WED NIGHT AND THU. FOR FRI A BAGGY TROF WL LIE OVR THE STATE. THE UPR TROF AND LOW WL MOVE EAST INTO KS SAT. SAT NIGHT THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL THEN HAVE DRIER WX. ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVR CO ON MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CO.
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD VORT LOBE ATTACHED TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY LIGHT WINDS. AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S.
236 PM PDT Mon May 25 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures this week with mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms afternoons and evenings through the middle of the week. High pressure dries things out by late in the week, with high temperatures peaking at 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MOVES EAST. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THE WEST INCREASING INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MOVED FROM NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST CO IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL WY. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH A TRANSITORY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
HIGHS WED IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A BIT OVER THE EASTERN STATES WED NIGHT AND THU SO CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AREAS FROM I-72 NORTH LOOK DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME CLOSER TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W.
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON.
But continued troughiness, for lack of a better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms across northern Missouri. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend, models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff low or at least a slow moving system.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AND THIS WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt.
DID LOWER THE HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. -VINCENT ALTHOUGH THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THOUGH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING COMMON BORDER.
IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED. 7" RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.