Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Elevated instability axis decreases but does progress over our CWA so isolated to possibly scattered showers/storms may continue to redevelop overnight as the mid level trough axis swings over our area.
233 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 An upper level ridge extended north from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the lower MS and TN valleys. A trough axis was dropping south through the Carolinas and eastern GA. The weak trough to our east will shift into AL on Monday afternoon, and may yield a bit more cumulus coverage.
Very warm and increasingly humid afternoon out ahead of a cold front pushing south across upstate NY. best forcing and shear lies northeast of my area, and as the evening progresses, large scale forcing diminishes and stablizing boundary layer will allow convection to diminish along the cold front while it sags into southern parts of central PA late evening before stalling after midnight. Cooler Superblend is favored on Monday, based on southeast flow/cold air damming, a scenario which the NBM usually struggles with.
Building high pressure will result in minor warming today through Monday.
259 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A cooler air mass settles into the region for tonight into Monday.
Extensive low stratus and cooler temperatures remain in place to the northwest of the front in South Dakota, with much warmer temperatures and greater surface based instability to the southeast of the front.
203 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Deeper plume of tropical moisture continues to stream northward this afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma, east of expansive upper high located over the southeast States. Another weak upper level impulse will lift north into the area around upper high on Monday.
The well developed low pressure system will continue a slow progression north and eastward, and rain and snow will also slowly transition northward.
The upper low will continue to impact the forecast area today. Shower coverage overall will weaken this evening and overnight as the low continues to lift northeastward, taking the moisture and instability with it.
Rain chances will decrease by sunset this evening, but will increase again just before dawn Monday morning as a weak trough develops along the Texas coast. /issued 327 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Closed 500 mb low pressure off the coast of neighboring Tamaulipas will gradually move north towards the Middle Texas Coast and then inland during the period. The proximity of this mid-level system to the BRO CWFA will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the best chance for precipitation located over the lower Texas coastal waters.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the southeastern CONUS to maintain mainly dry conditions across the region through the short-term period. However, a persistent plume of moisture across the the Gulf of Mexico streaming north along the western periphery of the ridge to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of east Texas early this evening and again on Monday. With upper-level ridge firmly established across the eastern half of the ArkLaTex, which includes Louisiana and Arkansas, temperatures could approach 90 degrees on Monday. Otherwise, temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be expected elsewhere.
GOES-16 WV showing moisture sliding northward along a trough axis stretching from the Texas Gulf coast northward this afternoon. At the same time, broad and deep ridging centered over the TN valley is resulting in drier air and suppression of activity in the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Overnight into Monday, ridge slides off a bit more to the east while the west Gulf mid level trough begins to lift more inland.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon captured an upper low lifting slowly north into the NW Gulf ahead of PWATs about 1/2 inch less compared to the Mid and Upper Texas Coast. The axis of rich PWATs AOA 2 inches is progged sit relatively unchanged tonight as the low shifts north over the region, so following a lull in precip this evening we expect an uptick in precip late tonight as background ascent improves. Behind the low/opening wave on Monday morning, models are in good agreement in keeping a trailing N-S axis of broad ascent east of the residual trough axis.
307 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 (Issued 307 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021) Tonight and Monday: The backdoor cold front will continue to progress southwestward this afternoon into the evening. Also, looks like winds could eventually turn inland near Lake Michigan, so kept highs just a tad cooler there.
High pressure remaining north of the area will keep onshore winds on Monday with the developing east coast sea breeze the main feature. Mid level ridge will build across Florida to start the work week, then the ridge will slowly retrograde across the GOMEX and toward Texas Wed-Wed night, as a pair of short wave troughs drop across the SE CONUS. At the surface, the axis of a weak ridge will take up residence across Florida through mid week, with light southerly flow giving way to the afternoon east coast sea breeze (ECSB) circulation in the afternoon. The local air mass will remain too dry at the low to mid levels to support diurnal convection through the period.
As the upper low begins to moves east across northern Montana Monday morning, strong, uniform west winds throughout the atmosphere look to mix down to the surface, with gusts up to 55 mph possible along the foothills west of Billings, an up to 40 mph areas at and east of Billings.
351 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Nearby high pressure ridge will continue fair and warm weather across central and southeast IL through Monday night.
Temperatures are a tad bit warmer this afternoon with readings in the mid to upper 80s. The upper level pattern continues to be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure extending from the Mississippi Valley eastward with a large upper low over the Intermountain West region. The aforementioned ridge is expected to slowly nudge east over the next 48 hours and allow southwest flow to set up over the region.
Winds will be light and generally out of the south due to high pressure residing to the east of Arkansas. Today Through Monday Night Ridging at the surface and aloft look to hold for a bit longer across the region, providing another day of dry weather for much of the state. Ridging looks to begin its eastward retreat on Monday with precip chances returning to western Arkansas through Monday night.
Onshore winds have been generally light today as the upper low continues to move east and away from the area. The lingering mountain clouds are expected to dissipate this evening as ridging builds back into the area. This will act to warm up temperatures tomorrow roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
With the deep-layer ridge remaining in place on Monday, temperatures will continue to gradually ramp up, with mid to upper 90s expected during the afternoon.
338 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Upper level high pressure will dominate the area for the next few days.
To our east, a large ridge of high pressure remains over much of the eastern US.
The frontal boundary that pushed south across the CWA yesterday will surge back northward as a warm front today. Stage is set for rather good warming, and an opportunity to side with the higher end of guidance for temperatures. The highly meridional mid-level pattern of recent days will gradually lose some amplitude as main trof aloft shifts into southern Canada very early in the period.
239 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A backdoor cold front will cross the area tonight and stall south of the area Monday. High pressure will build briefly over the area Monday night.
A decline in precip is likely this evening and early tonight until an upper low arrives from the western Gulf toward daybreak complete with an uptick in SHRA, mainly from CRP to VCT.
320 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Strong high pressure will hold just to our west today through tonight.
A large scale, deep upper trough remains situated across the West, but will finally lift into the Plains today. The highest coverage of storms today look to be west of the Permian Basin and into the higher terrain. Models are suggesting one of these waves to traverse the area Monday afternoon with the high coverage of storms for our region. On a good note, cooler mid level temperatures will keep highs generally below normal to start the week. Another upper trough approaches the area late in the week with better rain chances and severe storms back in the forecast.
Flow pattern aloft shows persistent cloud cover from the Gulf up into the Midwest around the edge of the upper high. An upper ridge will reside over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes region leading to another warm and humid day. The better chances for scattered storms are across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, near the vicinity of a backdoor cold front.
This will occur as a broad upper low continues to lift north-northeast into the central and northern Rockies. Lows will vary from the lower 60s across the southwest Texas Panhandle to the middle 60s off the Caprock.
These showers are within an axis of deep moisture on the west side of a strong upper ridge over the eastern CONUS.
1228 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The synoptic high pressure to the east has slowly built westward which will leave our Sunday morning dry for much of the region. There is some uncertainty in the strength of this trough as well as the effects of diurnal heating prior to its arrival.
GOES WV analysis indicates deep relatively drier air advecting across the region at this time on the eastern flank of the upper ridge axis. As a result, earlier iso/sct stratocu across the southern valley will continue to erode, all while fair wx cu is favored on the ridgetops, perhaps in portions of the valley as well. VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure continues to dominate across the region. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 93 67 94 68 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 90 65 92 67 / 0 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 65 92 66 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 86 62 90 65 / 0 10 10 10 10.
Skies clear behind the system, but the low-level moisture sticks around in the Nebraska panhandle, so there's a good chance patchy dense fog will form after midnight tonight. Southeast Wyoming dries out in the low-levels, so fog is less likely, but still possible. Looking westward, the winds are not nearly as high as was originally forecasted across Carbon County and Interstate 80 between Rawlins and Arlington with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, but the High Wind Warning will remain in place until there is no possibility of high winds.
304 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 With the upper ridge firmly entrenched across the region, Monday will bring another day of dry and warm weather.
315 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 A warm front extending from a low pressure system centered in eastern Colorado is currently located over the southern part of the CWA, and has become the focus for some thunderstorm development across the far southeast. These are developing along the cold frontal portion of the aforementioned low pressure system. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s west, to the lower 60s east, with highs on Monday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
743 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Nearby high pressure ridge will continue fair and warm weather across central and southeast Illinois through Monday night.
Boxell (Issued 307 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021) Tonight and Monday: The backdoor cold front will continue to progress southwestward this afternoon into the evening. Also, looks like winds could eventually turn inland near Lake Michigan, so kept highs just a tad cooler there.
High pressure remains overhead, keeping our weather pattern warm and quiet in the near-term.
821 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 Updated forecast for tonight to cancel the High Wind Warning for north-central Carbon and Albany counties and also to let the remaining Tornado Watch for western Nebraska expire. The only other minor concern is near freezing temperatures west of the Laramie Range. Skies clear behind the system, but the low-level moisture sticks around in the Nebraska panhandle, so there's a good chance patchy dense fog will form after midnight tonight. Southeast Wyoming dries out in the low-levels, so fog is less likely, but still possible. Looking westward, the winds are not nearly as high as was originally forecasted across Carbon County and Interstate 80 between Rawlins and Arlington with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, but the High Wind Warning will remain in place until there is no possibility of high winds.
High pressure will continue to dominate the lower and mid Ms River Valley region tonight and Monday.
Dry air associated with this high pressure continues to pivot in across the region from the northeast and east. Aloft the deep layer ridging is holding in place but it is evident that the flow is no longer blocked and pivoting towards a more progressive pattern. As a result the stout upper level ridge is beginning to flatten and slowly shift eastward in response to a large upper level trough across the PacNW. Otherwise, deep layer ridging will continue to dictate the local weather pattern for the next few days.
Building high pressure will result in minor warming through Monday.
703 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will linger across the region through the middle of the week. Broad mid-level ridging will remain across the region tonight. At the sfc, the center of high pressure is expected to remain well to the west as a broad trough remains across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and Georgia. Mid-level ridging will prevail across the region. At the surface, high pressure will persist with plentiful dry air and subsidence.
/Issued 203 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ Deeper plume of tropical moisture continues to stream northward this afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma, east of expansive upper high located over the southeast States. Another weak upper level impulse will lift north into the area around upper high on Monday.
In its wake, temperatures were running around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time and there was considerably more sun. Overnight lows will be cooler than normal with some freezing temperatures which could impact sensitive new growth in southwest Colorado and portions of northwest Colorado. Clouds in the northwest are a bit of mitigating factor, but low lying areas are likely to dip below freezing for at least a short while. Flow aloft becomes zonal on Monday but again shifts to the southwest Monday night as the next Pacific Northwest trough moves ashore late.
917 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 A strong area of high pressure is promoting mostly clear and tranquil conditions once again across the Tennessee Valley region this evening. After temperatures peaked in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, they have dropped off quickly this evening and into the lower to mid 70s in most locations as of 02z. Dewpoints are running a little bit higher (compared to last night) and for this reason, expect lows to run a few degrees warmer tonight -- bottoming out in the lower 60s by early Monday morning. The weak trough to our east will shift into AL on Monday afternoon, and may yield a bit more cumulus coverage.
857 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A backdoor cold front will cross the area tonight and stall south of the area Monday. High pressure will build briefly over the area Monday night.
There will be a general decrease in shower activity this evening as the upper low responsible for the showers the last few days moves further east. There will be renewed shower activity, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, across the area by Monday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. The showers will be favored in the higher elevations across the north. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer in most locations although highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Another dry, hot day on tap for Monday as the CWA remains beneath the upper-level ridge and associated high pressure. With the upper ridge firmly entrenched across the region, Monday will bring another day of dry and warm weather.
807 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Strong high pressure will hold just to our west today through tonight.
917 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 A trof continues to extend from the Texas gulf coast inland this evening streaming very high atmospheric moisture west of the Sabine River.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal over the mountains with the cooler air aloft associated with the trough. Trough moves to the north of the region with dry southwest flow aloft. An approaching weak trough will turn winds southeasterly near the Kansas border allowing for some low level moisture to advect westward into the CWA.
628 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 (Issued 628 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021) As of 625 PM, the cold front stretched from Reedsburg to just northeast of Madison to around Delavan. Some additional showers may develop toward morning as the low level jet over the Central Plains starts to veer into the area and overspreads the frontal boundary. Boxell (Issued 307 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021) Tonight and Monday: The backdoor cold front will continue to progress southwestward this afternoon into the evening. Also, looks like winds could eventually turn inland near Lake Michigan, so kept highs just a tad cooler there.
High pressure over SE U. Expect lows in the low/mid 60s tonight, with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 80s coastal to lower 90s away from the coast under mostly sunny skies.
KUDX radar shows main line of strong to severe storms along eastward moving cold front is now well east of the Black Hills, heading toward central SD. Temperatures vary widely across the area at this time, 40s over the Black Hills area to the lower 80s over south central SD. Extensive low stratus and cooler temperatures remain in place to the northwest of the front in South Dakota, with much warmer temperatures and greater surface based instability to the southeast of the front.
Very warm and increasingly humid afternoon out ahead of a cold front pushing south between U. Nearest lightning activity has been across Lake Erie, but could still see a few flashes as the front encroaches upon warmer air characterized by surface-based CAPE values of over 1 kJ/kg. As the evening progresses, large scale forcing diminishes and a stabilizing boundary layer will allow convection to diminish along the cold front while it sags into southern parts of central PA late this evening before stalling after midnight. Cooler Superblend is favored on Monday, based on southeast flow/cold air damming, a scenario which the NBM usually struggles with.
915 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Low level ridge axis will settle southward across central FL tonight. Under mostly clear skies and relatively dry air, temps should fall into the low and mid 60s across much of EC FL, except upper 60/near 70 along the immediate coast. A little warmer with highs around 90F interior and low to mid 80s coast. Onshore winds associated with high pressure centered north of the state will continue each afternoon with warmer than normal temperatures inland developing through mid-week. Wind speeds will remain light, which is the only mitigating factor, given the low RH and dry ground conditions.
Warmer air aloft will be over the forecast area tonight. Upper level ridging will begin to weaken and shift eastward on Monday as a trough approaches the West Coast.
Shower activity will dissipate tonight as a low pressure system moves out of the region.
Stacked high pressure will keep the heat and air stagnation going for Middle Tennessee with many locations reaching around 90 the next couple of days.
1009 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will linger across the region through the middle of the week. Broad mid level ridging will remain across the region through the night. At the surface, the center of high pressure is expected to remain well to the west as a broad trough persists across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and Georgia. Mid-level ridging will prevail across the region. At the surface, high pressure will persist with plentiful dry air and subsidence.
/28/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Quiet weather continues across the ArkLaMiss region this afternoon with high pressure dominating the pattern. An area of mid-level spin associated with low pressure off the southern tip of Texas and an area of low pressure diving south along the Eastern Seaboard sit on either side of the ridge of high pressure and drier air extending from the Caribbean northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The lowered forecast MinTs and residual moisture and light winds in the region will support a chance for some patchy fog especially in far southern Mississippi and in low lying areas elsewhere. Tomorrow should be similar to today with just a slight eastward shift in the ridge axis.
A warm front extending from a low pressure system centered in eastern Colorado is currently located over the southern part of the CWA, and has become the focus for some thunderstorm development across the far southeast. These are developing along the cold frontal portion of the aforementioned low pressure system. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s west, to the lower 60s east, with highs on Monday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Expect mostly clear skies tonight as high pressure remains in control. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s for most locations. /27/ Prior discussion below: This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Quiet weather continues across the ArkLaMiss region this afternoon with high pressure dominating the pattern. An area of mid-level spin associated with low pressure off the southern tip of Texas and an area of low pressure diving south along the Eastern Seaboard sit on either side of the ridge of high pressure and drier air extending from the Caribbean northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The lowered forecast MinTs and residual moisture and light winds in the region will support a chance for some patchy fog especially in far southern Mississippi and in low lying areas elsewhere. Tomorrow should be similar to today with just a slight eastward shift in the ridge axis.
628 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 An upper level ridge extended from the Gulf Coast region north into southeastern MO and southern portions of IL and IN with surface ridging also extending north-northwestward into southeastern MO and southern IL.
Summed up this results in an expectation of decreasing severe risk across Slope and Bowman counties, and increasing risk east of there, from Adams and Hettinger counties into Grant, with the highest tornado potential there as well.
Deep and persistent ridging is now centered directly over the region which has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the mid/upper 80s. The upward trend in progged thicknesses indicates temperatures will continue to trend warmer over the next couple of days with highs around 90 degrees today then a few degrees warmer tomorrow with afternoon RH ranging from 30 to 40 percent.
After one upper level low pressure system exits the Great Basin to the northeast tonight, another storm system will move on shore over the Pacific northwest on Monday.
959 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A cooler air mass settles into the region for tonight into Monday.
617 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Nearby high pressure ridge will continue fair and warm weather across central and southeast Illinois through Monday night.
An upper level ridge extended north from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the lower MS and TN valleys. A trough axis was dropping south through the Carolinas and eastern GA. The weak trough to our east will shift into AL on Monday afternoon, and may yield a bit more cumulus coverage.
/Issued 304 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021/ With the upper ridge firmly entrenched across the region, Monday will bring another day of dry and warm weather.
The closed upper low that brought yesterday's gusty winds has drifted northward over Montana, with predominate westerlies now over the state.