Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over southern Ontario/Great Lake/Upper Mississippi River Valley regions was providing mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Models show a weak mid-level trough moving southeast across the area today. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a weak/trough/cold front works into the area.
Temperatures not as cool as the previous few nights due to warmer daytime highs and overall airmass modification, so lows generally in the 50s (possibly upper 40s in the coolest locations). This will result in high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in upper Michigan to the lower-middle 80s over northern lower.
Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide; cooler in the high elevations.
Water vapor imagery and model analysis indicated a broad ridge over the Great Basin with plenty of dry air moving into northern California. Upper level high pressure ridge over the Great Basin will continue to stagnate through the week and into the weekend as the main upper level jet flow remains well to the north of the forecast area. Model atmospheric profiles indicate some instability for the Sierra ridges south of Highway 50 Wednesday afternoon and evening, so some thunderstorm development is possible.
/issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country with an upper low over northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. Expect storms to develop across the higher terrain this afternoon and then develop into the Permian Basin later in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler on Wednesday due to cooler 850 mb temperatures.
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Convergence into a lee-side trough and differential heating boundaries associated with areas of cloudiness earlier today plus strong heating supports thunderstorms. Forecasted chance pops with the higher values in the north section closer to deeper moisture and the upper feature. The upper ridge, to our south and east, will build northward some over the forecast area. Models continue to indicate a strong ridge over the W CONUS, with upper trough deepening and shifting east into the E CONUS. Convergence into a lee-side trough and differential heating boundaries associated with areas of cloudiness earlier today plus strong heating supports thunderstorms.
405 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 This Evening through Tomorrow: We've had a few isolated showers and brief thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area today, but chances will remain on the low side through tonight and into tomorrow. Most shower and storm activity this evening should stay closer to the upper low currently moving through Missouri and Arkansas, so have greater POPs confined to our southeast Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi counties. The upper low will shear out over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow, but there will continue to be at least a chance for additional showers and storms across parts of our area as the system weakens.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge continues to build across the western CONUS from the Southwest US into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. Weak surface toughing and upslope flow is present and moisture appears sufficient with surface dewpoints ranging from the low 50s into the mid 60s.
301 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Slow moving upper cyclone was located over far northeast OK this afternoon. although still may have some lingering convection into the afternoon as the trof axis is slow to clear.
257 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 The upper level low spinning to our south will continue to be the main factor in our weather through tomorrow evening. For the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours, the I-70 corridor has been in a bit of a deformation area with the low to the south within the overall upper ridge across the central to western portions of the country. But given ample low level moisture and weak forcing associated with the low, can't rule out showers and maybe a few storms along and south of I-70. For tomorrow, the upper low will have moved into central MO and think a similar scenario will unfold across the eastern half of the forecast area that occurred over western MO and eastern KS today.
355 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the wrn U. with a trough over the central plains this morning. Upper trough begins to amplify over the Upper Great Lakes by Thu and remains amplified over the area into the weekend. Model consensus timing indicates that a cold front will cross the western fcst area Thu afternoon and then slide through the rest of the fcst area by early overnight Thu night.
327 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure located over the northern Great Lakes will build into the North Country with clear skies and light winds expected.
An upper ridge over FL from the Gulf to the Atlantic slowly lifts north. Surface - Atlantic high pressure ridges west to the Gulf of Mexico with an axis initially across central FL that shifts to the northern Gulf waters and northern FL. As the deep layer ridging that has resided across the area the last few day begins to move away east-southeasterly lower level flow strengthens slightly and spreads north.
Upper level analysis shows continued northwest flow into the Panhandles as high pressure over the southwest has not shifted as far east as previous guidance suggested. The high pressure over the southwest is expected to expand over the Four Corners region with large scale troughing over the northeast CONUS. Otherwise, highs should be in the low to mid 90s, right around average.
Ridge axis rebuilding over western portions of the state tonight with surface pressure falling east of the continental divide. Real forecast challenge comes in the late afternoon as a weak disturbance slides over the ridge axis and tries to trigger convection over the western zones 21-00z.
This as low pressure now advancing into west Missouri maintains a northeast track, while a lingering southwest oriented trof gradually deepens and edges southeast toward and eventually into the area. Scenario suggests a weakening of dry high pressure aloft over the region that has been providing effective capping. Moisture currently confined predominantly to the lower levels will be increasing aloft.
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Western extension of Bermuda high pressure centered over southern Georgia early this afternoon. Weak upper trough extends from Missouri into Texas. Upper trough makes only very slow eastward movement over the next few days, but that will be just enough to allow for additional areal coverage of daily thunderstorms. Most should occur during the prime heating hours, but we will need to be wary of potential nocturnal MCS development closer to the center of the upper trough sneaking into the area during the late night hours. 35 Troughing or a shear axis will remain near the area through the weekend, which will continue the day to day chance of thunderstorms, primarily during max heating. 24/RR Light winds and low seas expected to continue for much of the week with Bermuda ridge extension pattern in place.
Weak subsidence associated with the ridge and weak surface convergence is expected to keep convective development at bay through the afternoon as temps warm into the lower to mid 90s. A high pressure ridge is still in place to our west, keeping us in northwest flow. After today, the ridge begins expanding eastward, which starts to turn the flow northerly and then eventually northeasterly.
158 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Convergence into a lee-side trough and differential heating boundaries associated with areas of cloudiness earlier today plus strong heating supports thunderstorms. Forecasted chance pops with the higher values in the north section closer to deeper moisture and the upper feature. The upper ridge, to our south and east, will build northward some over the forecast area. Models continue to indicate a strong ridge over the W CONUS, with upper trough deepening and shifting east into the E CONUS. Convergence into a lee-side trough and differential heating boundaries associated with areas of cloudiness earlier today plus strong heating supports thunderstorms.
High pressure is expected to continue to slide eastward across the central and eastern Great Lakes region tonight and Wednesday. Onshore flow with the high will continue to keep dry air over the area during this period, and will result in quiet weather.
A much better chance for storms comes later tonight as a weakening cold front moves in from the Dakotas.
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Progressive upper level trough continues to move across the area this morning with several embedded impulses producing very small areas of convection overnight across SD and KS. Upper heights will slowly build over the area Wednesday as a western upper level ridge begins to slide east.
322 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered over eastern UT and western CO tonight and Wed. Upper ridging is projected to become centered over and/or near the 4-Corners region during the balance of the longer term.
Upper level high pressure will be centered over the Four Corners region today, with a short wave trough moving across eastern Oklahoma and into Missouri and Arkansas by late afternoon.
Very few changes to the weather can be expected for the next several days as high pressure slowly moves off to the east. High pressure is over the western half of the country.
Across the western Panhandles under northwesterly flow, latest CAMs/HRRR/NAM continue to indicate convection developing over the high terrain of NM/CO and moving southeast into our region. High temperatures today will range from the low to mid 90s.
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure located over the northern Great Lakes will build into the North Country with clear skies and light winds expected.
After tonight's activity it looks like we will have one more day of storm chances before an upper-level ridge building over the 4-corners area begins to exert more influence for a while. In fact, our storm chances on Wednesday do not look very promising as slightly cooler temperatures should keep the area a little more stable locally, while upper-flow turning more north-northeasterly will keep the activity in NM pinned to the higher terrain.
At 19Z the upper level low was located over southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Additional weak embedded energy was moving around the low circulation. Looks like much of the area will be dry, save the east central counties within the area of lift within the deformation axis on the north side of the low by sunset. Later tonight and into Wednesday across the eastern counties there will be a chance for showers with isolated storms as energy rotates around the backside of the upper low as it moves off to the east.
500 mb high pressure centered northwest of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the Four Corners area will be nudged slightly northwest by 500 mb low pressure over the central United States and an inverted 500 mb trough over the central Gulf of Mexico that will approach from the east.
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to lower 100s over the next several days.
1130 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Heights aloft will rise significantly today as ridging builds over the four corners region. The ridge axis will remain just to our west through the period. Underneath the building ridge, subsidence and warming will occur which will make convective coverage hard to come by today and Wednesday. A few showers and high based storms may try to form today but mainly over the higher terrain with little if any measurable precipitation. Highs near 100 degrees expected over a few of the lower elevations of SE WY and western NE by Wednesday afternoon with temps well into the 90s elsewhere outside of the mountains.
Dry and warm otherwise into the middle of the week with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s.
This is due to the higher dew points south of the boundary, fueling very modest instability.
Will have to monitor temperatures closely as it is possible temps rise even a couple of degrees warmer than current forecast, but will persist with inherited MaxT grid for now. This is when an area of low pressure will track across southern Canada with the trailing cold front over western ND and into northwest SD.
118 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front was located to the south of the region as high pressure builds across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania from the northern Great Lakes. This area of high pressure will move eastward through tonight reaching New England Wednesday.
Temperatures today should be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Recent temperature trends have been slower to warm this afternoon, and as as result the highs have been gradually adjusted downward only a few degrees. Large upper high and ridge remaining anchored across the central Rockies/Great Basin area during the latter half of the week into the weekend; a pattern suggestive of high CAPE and low shear/weak steering flow for any convective development.
/Wednesday night through Tuesday/ Upper low in Missouri will be departing into the Ohio River valley on Wednesday night with quiet weather.
55 Recent mesoscale diagnosis efforts indicate a convectively enhanced/induced vorticity max, moving northeast near the OK/AR/MO border, with a small amplitude trough extending towards the ArkLaTex region. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont on Wed as a lingering upper trof conts working sloly acrs the region.
An upper level ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies will be the main feature through the period. There is an upper low to the east/southeast and a wave from the low moves through this afternoon and evening. The upper level ridge in the western CONUS continues through this period. There are a few waves that move over the top of the ridge and into the area, but most of them are fairly weak.
Increasing moisture and approaching low pressure will increase rain chances as the week progresses.
1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A large ridge will start the day over the Great Basin with Utah and Colorado beneath the northwest flow ahead of the ridge line.
700 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will retain control through Wednesday, providing the region with generally rain-free weather, pleasant temperatures, and fairly low humidity levels. High pressure slides to the east and allow a slow return of moisture to the area. Initially, best mositure return is over western NY as the low level southwest winds comes up along the lake plain.
Regardless, the highest POPs tonight will be in the southern part of the area, and generally later this evening. The upper trough from Illinois into southwest Missouri or northeast Oklahoma finally wanders farther east tomorrow and leaves the area in northwest/northerly upper-level flow between this exiting trough and the building ridge in the west. We maintain some low POPs for the next couple of days before the ridge builds in a little stronger. Brought high temperatures a little higher than the model blend given the building ridge and the fact that it is July.
125 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide fair weather through Wednesday.
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Weak low pressure over central Kentucky continues to spin up scattered showers and rotate them southeast in areas along to the east of the Lakes.
This as low pressure now advancing into west Missouri maintains a northeast track, while a lingering southwest oriented trof gradually deepens and edges southeast toward and eventually into the area. Scenario suggests a weakening of dry high pressure aloft over the region that has been providing effective capping. Moisture currently confined predominantly to the lower levels will be increasing aloft. High pressure ridging across the northwest gulf will maintain light southerlies and low seas.
Mid-level high pressure will produce rain-free conditions with moderate to breezy winds at the surface. The next 36 hours will be dominated by the H5 ridge stretched W/E across south Texas. This will be more of a concern in the western valley due to lesser rainfall received in the past couple weeks than the lower valley.
Deubelbeiss 254 AM CDT Focus will shift to the slow moving convectively enhanced upper low across the center of the country, and how far north is influence will be felt. The 0z suite of guidance continues to support a track from the lower Missouri valley early Wednesday and then eastward through the Ohio valley. The ridge/heat dome across the western U.
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the wrn U. with a trough over the central plains this morning. Dewpoints will increase into the lower to middle 60s and with highs climbing to around 80/lowers 80s there should be enough instability to warrant isolated to low chance pop just about anywhere across the U.
152 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure ridging into the region will keep a dry airmass across the region through Wednesday.
Deep layer ridging will dominate today with the axis stretched just south of the CWA, over the Gulf. With deep layer ridging and limited convection, temperatures this afternoon will soar into the mid to upper 90s, resulting in heat indices around 105 with these higher values mainly in the Florida Big Bend area and southwest Georgia.
With low level thermal profile similar to yesterday, not much change expected for the highs today compared to yesterday.
Just ahead of the upper trough plenty of scattered shower activity is ongoing particularly east of I-65. This activity will continue to slowly slide east with the upper trough as the morning progresses. Rain chances during the afternoon will be more scattered in nature as the trough is east of the area but the soupy atmosphere is left in place. It won't be a pleasant day by any means, however thanks to dew points in the low 70s. Temperatures on Wednesday should be a couple degrees warmer than today with a longer window of daytime heating likely before storms hamper the diurnal temperature curve.
607 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will build to the north through early Wednesday morning, then pass off the New England coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Highs this afternoon in the low to mid 90s. A ridge of high pressure builds across the western US on Wednesday resulting in dry conditions.
Storms are quickly drifting off the higher terrain from north to south under a northerly flow, impacting the southern Colorado valleys of Durango and Pagosa Springs. The ridge of high pressure will slide eastward and be directly overhead by Wednesday, leading to a warmup in temperatures with the lower valleys of southeast Utah and the Grand Valley reaching triple digit heat. Some lingering moisture under the high will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Not expecting much storm motion with the ridge directly overhead, and mostly gusty winds and virga with storms that form due to the dry low levels. This will result in an uptick in storm coverage each day through the weekend, mainly focused over the higher terrain.
Tonight and Wednesday Quiet conditions expected tonight as high pressure begins to pull away from the region. Shower/thunderstorm chances return for most locations on Wednesday as a warm front approaches from the southwest and the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of high pressure that stretched from southeast Ontario through the Great Lakes. The warm front was situated from the northern Plains southeast through the Midwest. A cold front was located from Manitoba southwest through the Dakotas. The broad area of high pressure will gradually shift east into the eastern Great Lakes/upstate NY tonight.
For the afternoon, the greatest forcing will be located across southwest MO, so the highest chance for showers/tstms will be across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The upper trough axis has not yet shifted east and until it does, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through tonight.
216 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will retain control through Wednesday, providing the region with generally rain-free weather, pleasant temperatures, and fairly low humidity levels. High pressure slides to the east and allow a slow return of moisture to the area. Initially, best mositure return is over western NY as the low level southwest winds comes up along the lake plain.
Water vapor imagery and latest upper air analysis indicates broad troughing over the NE US with weak flow aloft across the Mid-South and TN Valley.
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and reach New England on Wednesday. The high will leave a ridge extending west over Lake Erie through the day.
A mid to upper level ridge will hold over the Rockies while another ridge axis remains situated over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A very weak mid level shear axis will be between the ridges generally from northeast Texas to south of the Hill Country. Models depict a slightly lower temperature profile in the lower levels on Wednesday for highs to be a few degrees less over the Brush Country.
Even though temperatures have been several degrees cooler today, the humidity is so bad that it's hard to tell if that's a raindrop or just a sweat drop.
KLG With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to lower 100s over the next several days.
Low level ridge axis across the northern sections with E-SE flow. Position of ridge axis will allow earlier inland push of east coast sea breeze in the south, with highest coverage over the inland sections late afternoon. High pressure in the mid-Atlantic will continue the ESE flow through the end of the week.
The cu field should mostly diminish this evening, but possibly linger over SE OK/SW AR where sct to numerous ares of convection are expected to develop after 06Z over Srn OK/Nrn sections of SW AR near a weak sfc front and just S of closed upper level low pressure system that will drift NE along the AR/MO border.
Temperatures to remain near or a little above normal, with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Northwest flow aloft will continue this week, even as upper ridging builds in from the west and northwest.
635 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and reach New England on Wednesday. The high will leave a ridge extending west over Lake Erie through the day.
331 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 An upper level low is currently located across northeastern Oklahoma/southeastern Kansas this afternoon. The low will slowly slide to the east tonight and tomorrow. The low will be over the area on Wednesday and will continue to see scattered storms and a few storms occur at times.
The PacNW lies beneath south flow aloft between high pressure over the Rockies and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will retain control through Wednesday, providing the region with generally rain-free weather, pleasant temperatures, and fairly low humidity levels.
the trough axis only moving a couple hundred miles east over the next over the next 36 hours. The early morning surface pattern consists of a broad area of high pressure, punctuated by pockets of mesolows and highs from convection over the last 12 to 18 hours. Overall, made nudges to the forecast given the higher than average degree of uncertainty and to avoid flip flopping. Could have a few trailing showers and thunderstorms wrap around behind the low as it moves east of the area Wednesday, but chances are small and only in the far eastern counties.