Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front moving southeast across northern Wyoming at this time, and will move through the CWA overnight. Low and mid level moisture too limited for any precipitation along the cold front. Much cooler and breezy in the wake of the cold front with decent cold air advection through the day.
330 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper trough over the northern conus will deepen today over the Northern Plains. This will send a cold front southward towards Texas.
Perturbations in the southwest flow, associated with the shear axis, will keep stormy activity bubbling up for the remainder of the afternoon and overnight hours with a cold front, associated with the Montana trough, sweeping through Friday afternoon and evening bringing another round of storms. However, while the mid to late morning hours of Friday look relatively dry, Friday afternoon and the overnight hours will see a progressive line of storms sweep across the region along with cold front.
The upper level ridge responsible for this pattern will finally back off as a trough sweeps across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the next 48 hours.
More vigorous forcing will arrive by the afternoon and into the evenings as a significant short wave trough arrives with strong kinematic forcing and an attendant sfc cold front.
Forecast area under a northwesterly flow between a ridge building off the west coast and a weak weather disturbance moving through western Montana.
Expect to see a break in activity near morning before a cold front drops into the northern tier from srn Canada, with more light rain, very scattered in nature, spreading north to south across the area tomorrow. Cool temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s are expected as a much cooler air mass sinks into ND.
However, some small changes are a brewing as a surface frontal boundary extends out of an East Canada low pressure system into the Great Lakes, then to the Central Plains and then to the Rockies. In the upper levels, we continue to have an upper ridge present across the Southeast U. This will allow a surface cold front to push into Alabama over the weekend. 25/Owen A ridge of high pressure aloft will provide one more dry day today. Low rain chances will return over the weekend with the approach of a weak cold front.
A cold front over eastern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois will move to central Indiana late tonight and become stationary.
Progressive flow regime continues within broad trough axis that extends from the Pacific Northwest to southern Ontario.
Leading edge of deeper moisture should be moving into the eastern counties toward sunrise and some of the high res models indicate the possibility of showers developing prior to sunrise so have nudged up rain chances in the areas east of a Livingston to Pasadena to Angleton line and lowered them in the west between 3 and 7 am.
The primary concern through Friday night continues to be heavy rain and flooding concerns although a handful of severe storms will be likely on Friday along a southward moving cold front. a southward advancing cold front will provide a focus for storms after 21z continuing through the evening and overnight hours for portions of the area.
There is a patch of clouds over W TN/MS that have developed along a piece of upper level energy caught under the high pressure and are moving E/SE towards the area. Stumpf For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are forecast through the period as high pressure continues dominate the weather pattern for the TN Valley.
Satellite water vapor imagery showing large upper level low pressure circulation over the western Gulf of Mexico with a strong push of deeper column moisture advancing northward.
We will remain under the influence of the mid level ridge for the period.
106 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Strong high pressure will remain over the region overnight into Friday. A weak cold front will dip south toward the area by early Friday before lifting back north as a warm front by Friday night.
318 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today and will crest over the region tonight.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Ridge of high pressure moving through the area this afternoon, which has made for a nice day so far. Showers will end Friday night across eastern MN and western WI as a low pressure system and cold front push east of the area. This will lead to high pressure and pleasant weather for the weekend.
241 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Upper trough and sfc front will create isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the area today.
An upper level ridge will continue to shift over the Pacific Northwest through Friday.
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Mid/upper level ridge of high pressure over the southeast will weaken down through tonight as an upper trough pushes through the northern plains and upper Midwest.
/issued 335 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) The extension of the subtropical ridge across the area will result in mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Friday. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures on Friday will be several degrees above normal, with highs in the lower and middle 90s.
Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota. Better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Friday as secondary upper trof swings through the forecast area. Cooler and breezy conditions for Friday. Dry and warmer conditions will develop over the weekend as a weak ridge crosses the area.
Subtropical ridge center remains over South Texas this afternoon resulting on continued hot and dry conditions. Ridge is prog to dampen through the short term period as a strong inverted trough shifts west across the Gulf of Mexico. South Texas remains on the western side of the trough tonight and Friday. sufficient moisture values are prog to advect around the peak of the ridge to near the Middle Texas Coast tonight. Better chances of nocturnal precip /although not all that high/ will occur Friday night as inverted trough axis becomes draped along the coast/.
I spy a Cold Front, at the surface, extending from eastern IA into northern MO. The High aloft is still really strong and holding thru the day Friday, but begins to show weakening here Friday night as a sharper Trof aloft presses in from the northwest.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon and increase tonight as low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler through the weekend with less humid conditions. With weak high pressure over the area and calm winds along with moist boundary layer.
KDRT will be on the cusp of the low-level moisture field and have left VFR overnight for now but MVFR ceilings could be close 12-15Z and will amend as trends warrant.
1210 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Low pressure will cross northern Maine late tonight, bringing a cold front across the region through early Friday.
Temperatures are on track to fall to around 70 to the lower 70s north, lower to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s coastal.
Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is draped from Andros island southward to the island of Cuba, while a western Atlantic ridge is draped across the gulf coast region.
137 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Aviation High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Friday afternoon.
As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes with a cold front draped from southern Wisconsin to Kansas City. Steady southwest breezes prevailed ahead of this with readings in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Higher pressure aloft will build over the region today for more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
242 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
The best chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm the remainder of the night is across northwest North Dakota as the upper level low across far southern Saskatchewan continues to propagate southeast through the night. As we lost our insolation and winds started to de-couple, the peak gusts really dropped off as the showers approached the Highway 83 corridor.
/issued 653 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ Persistent aviation pattern with upper ridge remaining in place. /issued 243 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ Upper ridge continues to hold fast lover the srn/sern CONUS and is centered almost directly ovhd.
322 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Minimal impacts expected with cold frontal passage today. Steady cold advection will likely off set any solar keeping high temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
After one more day where the heat index reaches toward 100, a cold front is expected to sweep through Oklahoma tonight. A fast-moving mid-level trough will move to the north of Oklahoma associated with the front which is expected to enter northern Oklahoma a bit before sunset.
This solid line of convection has kept the low-level jet focused a bit further south than earlier anticipated and will make it difficult for it to expand much further north this morning. Precipitation should gradually scatter out later this morning as the low-level jet weakens and the weak upper impulse overhead pushes east of the area. Depending on how quickly precipitation can clear out this morning, and if any sun can peek out this afternoon, the atmosphere may have enough time to become weakly to moderately unstable this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest.
338 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper level disturbance will be dropping out across the northern plains today dragging a dry cold front through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. General trend remains for westerly winds today shifting to the northwest with gusty conditions along the ridges.
Forecast area will be under a flat ridge pattern through Friday for continued dry conditions.
/issued 359 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ Afternoon WV imagery and RAP 500 hPa height analysis show a broad upper level ridge continues to extend across the Gulf Coast. The vort max is associated with an inverted trough moving westward that is forecast to move over SC TX on Friday.
1203 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
A synoptic trof will move across the Northern Plains and will have a sfc reflection in the form of a cold front. A significantly drier airmass will advect in across the region with high pressure in control.
An upper ridge of high pressure will remain situated from Texas to east Georgia this evening, while an inverted upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move westward. The western edge of the upper ridge over Texas will weaken after midnight into Friday as the inverted upper trough moves over southeast Texas, but the ridge will remain strong over the southeast states.
Some afternoon cu will develop along with passing areas of cirrus before thicker clouds expand back into the area in advance of the approaching low pressure system.
Tonight Through Friday A dry cold front has moved south through the northern third of the area. The cold front will then push south through most of the area tonight and Friday morning with northeast winds higher humidity and cooler temperatures. Some light snow can be expected in the higher elevations of the northern mountains tonight and Friday with accumulations up to 4 inches.
Light southeast winds will increase to moderate in the afternoon as high pressure over the Gulf interacts with lower pressure upstream. Light to moderate winds are anticipated with a few clouds courtesy of mid- level high pressure in control over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. An inverted mid/upper-level trough currently over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue propagating westward overnight, approaching the coastal waters by early Friday morning, then pretty much stalling out along the coast by later in the day. Not sure how far inland any enhanced moisture associated with the aforementioned trough will make it during Friday daytime. For Friday night, some pooling of moisture along the coast is noted in model output in association with the upper trough.
Any convection associated with cold front boundary movg toward area should remain well to the north thru 10/06z. /issued 243 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ Upper ridge continues to hold fast lover the srn/sern CONUS and is centered almost directly ovhd.
447 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Cooler temperatures will prevail today as a cold front comes out of Wyoming this morning. Satellite imagery shows no cloud cover associated with the front as dew points in Wyoming are in the lower and mid 30s. The dry cold front will do little more than cool off temperatures and keep winds out of the north and northeast through this afternoon.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a trough over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. A ridge runs up through California in response. To the northwest a second ridge is developing off the coast of British Columbia.
The remainder of the area should remain beneath upper ridging which should keep conditions dry. Water Vapor Satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles this afternoon indicate a ridge of high pressure located over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. Highs on Friday will be similar to today with highs in the lower 90s at most locations.
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Early wind shift expected across northwest half of forecast area this morning, followed by true cold front arriving in far northwest part of combined Panhandles late this afternoon. Cold front then expected to sweep through remaining sections by midnight.
On average, we'll see storm rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches along and north of the I44 corridor with 1-3 along the Highway 60 corridor and southward (locally higher amounts possible).
1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure ridge axis was over the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, some additional clouds, mainly cirrus, was beginning to move along the Canadian border in the warm air advection ahead of an upper trof approaching the Northern Plains. The upper trof remains over North Dakota. Used a blended approach to pops, leaning closer to the high resolution HIRESARW/HIRESNMM models for timing and coverage.
1141 PM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Low stratus and fog this morning is holding temperatures down thus far; however slow and gradual clearing should allow enough heating to bring the highs into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture content is very high in the lower levels as tropical moisture streams up along a theta-e boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A cold front approaches the region tonight and will push through the CWA on Friday. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the northwestern portions of the CWA and the lower 80s in the south and southeastern portions of the CWA. To start off, Friday night will see the back end of an eastward exiting trough.
as yesterdays cold front remains draped from the panhandle of Texas into the Great Lakes region.
An offshore high pressure ridge will maintain dry conditions across the region and above normal temperatures across interior areas through this weekend.
Forecast soundings once again indicate winds from the east-northeast to east on Friday at the lower levels. This in combination with the available moisture could mean the development of showers along or near the Keys, especially for the Lower Keys by mid-morning and early afternoon.
239 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Clear skies and temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2AM with the upper ridge over the southeast states starting to break down. The ridge holds on just enough today to keep mostly sunny skies and light winds in the forecast. Today looks to be the last "hot" day with highs once again topping out in the lower to middle 90s.
Broad upper level ridge of high pressure covers the southern U. Meanwhile higher dewpoints, in the lower to mid 70s, stretch from along the Mississippi River west into Arkansas. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s.
A weather disturbance exiting the northern Rockies will push a dry cold front south across Utah through this evening.
Showers and t-storms will once again be possible Friday afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches.
Height falls associated with a short wave in this area moves squarely across the forecast area between 06Z and 12Z Friday in advance of a surface cold front. Broad upper troughing exists to the west over the western plains providing a moist flow in the low levels and a decent low level jet of 20 to 25 knots. Ahead of the cold front, likely pops are still warranted for much of northwest Iowa early Friday morning before the aforementioned short wave departs. A break could ensue in the mid and late morning, before more likely pops are warranted in our southeast zones in the afternoon as the main upper trough swings through along with the cold front.
On Friday, a cold front will approach northern AR and help develop scattered convection over the area. On Friday, a cold front will gradually move south and develop convection over northern AR.
211 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 The region is under the influence of weak high pressure. More widespread activity is forecast across the southern half of the peninsula with a low level trough possibly passing westward through the Florida Straits later in the day.
After a chilly start, Friday is expected to be a pleasant day weather wise with dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
1003 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Cooler temperatures with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast for today. As of 08 UTC, a cold front near the international border will continue to propagate southeast across western and central North Dakota this morning. Temperatures in the lower to mid 60s are expected area today. Scattered rain showers focused behind the front this morning will increase in coverage with daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft with the upper level low.
Currently, a broad ridge of high pressure is set up across the western Great Lakes with a mass of convection ongoing along a warm/stationary front in southern Missouri/Kansas which leads to a low in southwest Kansas. These features will propagate east today with the stationary front transitioning to a warm front which stays south of the region going into tonight. Wind shear looks decent ahead of this trough, but the depth of the forcing is in question with the mid level trough lagging behind the surface features.
1028 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
1254 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
1035 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Aviation sections updated A cold front over eastern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois will move to central Indiana late tonight and become stationary.
A weak upper level trough was situated across the western plains today; and ample low to mid level tropical moisture was in place. South of this front from Pratt and Ashland southward, temperatures were in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, along with moderate surface based CAPE values.
Lows will be in the mid 60s east to the low 70s west.
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Elongated upper trough from the northern TX Panhandle southwest to far West TX will edge southeast today ahead of NW flow aloft and a welcome cool spell for the start of the weekend. By peak heating, this trough axis should reside from near Tulia southwest to Denver City with lift optimized east of this line. Lack of low level ascent will improve markedly tonight as the cold front accelerates south and improves deep layer ascent, particularly in the vicinity of the upper trough. Model spread with the cold front is not bad at all with extremes falling within 60mi of each other by 06Z.
Tonight and Friday Skies will be clear this evening but mid clouds are expected to arrive after midnight in broad warm advection pattern as an upper trough approaches from the northern Plains.
Forecast area will be under a flat ridge pattern through Friday for continued dry conditons.
Surface cold front has pushed south of Cut Bank and will continue moving south overnight with initially northerly winds behind the front backing to the northwest after a few hours.
Winds will begin backing after 00Z as a cold front approaches. /issued 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ An upper trough over the northern conus will deepen today over the Northern Plains. This will send a cold front southward towards Texas.
1259 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Rain showers will be ending and it will be breezy, much cooler today with unsettled weather throughout weekend. cold front moving through area right now with just scattered showers. Cold advection may lead to a very brief period of near freezing temperatures at highest elevations of west virginia and maryland ridges, but likely not for a longf enough duration to harm vegetation. 850mb temperatures bottoming out in the -3 to -5 celsius range will fuel very steep low-level lapse rates as the passing upper-level trough axis provides the impetus for shower development Sunday afternoon. With freezing levels so low, and a relatively dry boundary layer, graupel production seems probable in stronger showers. This will bring a clearing trend to the sky cover overnight and may decouple the boundary layer over the lowland counties.
813 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 For the ArkLaTex the cold front approaching has Tstms near KTYR and later near KLFK with some upper support in West TX moving East.
The low clouds will stick around much of the morning. A cold front currently in northwestern Texas will drift to the south and stall across Central Texas late this afternoon into tonight. These features along with daytime heating will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with the highest chances over Central Texas and across the Rio Grande Plains where the greatest moisture convergence and upward forcing are expected.
This system will bring a return to cooler temperatures and showery conditions with a few thunderstorms to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Water vapor satellite imagery has a dry slot of clear skies sweeping across souther Nevada and into western Utah this morning, pinched between mid and high clouds spreading across southern Utah and increasing clouds ahead of the upper level low moving on shore of northern California. Afternoon high terrain showers and thunderstorms are possible as the ridge breaks down and diffluence in the mid levels creates enough lift and instability to generate convection.
with the highest speeds expected along the Mississippi River. 3 AM CDT surface map showed a cold front just north of a Jonesboro AR to Paducah KY line. A prefrontal thermal ridge had persisted through the early overnight, with temperatures over northeast AR as much as 15 degrees warmer than over the TN River Valley. The cold front should sweep through the Midsouth. upper trof lifts offshore.
WV imagery shows intrusion of much drier air which will make the low clouds even less of a factor as the day progresses. Surface dewpoints are in the 70s south of Crystal River with a cold front just north of the forecast area where dewpoints drop into the lower 60s and 50s. The cold front will be progressing south through the forecast area today. With plenty of sunshine today highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to around 90 inland.
716 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The 07Z objective sfc analysis indicated the high pressure ridge extended from eastern MT into western NEb. This ridge axis will slowly cross the region over the next 24 hours.
602 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The cold front is currently pushing south through the state. Today Through Sunday Night The next cold front is dropping SE into NWRN sections of the CWA early this Sat morning.