Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019 The stubborn trough of low pressure that has been plaguing the northern Rockies with rain for the past few days makes an exit this evening. Rain spreads north into west-central Montana this afternoon as flow turns towards the northwest with the exiting upper level trough and approaching ridge. Thursday will see clearing skies and seasonal temperatures as an upper level ridge builds over the northern Rockies.
Remainder of the forecast is for slightly warmer and generally drier conditions.
1058 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure will dominate the local weather through Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Fri into the weekend as a cold front drops southward.
/issued 437 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019/ Hot, humid and predominately dry conditions to continue through the week, courtesy of a persistent upper ridge over the southeast and lower MS River valley. A weak inverted upper trof extended across AL into middle TN, ahead of the wave.
632 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the local weather through Thu. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Fri into the weekend as a cold front drops southward.
723 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Aviation - Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon - Widespread rain Thursday night - Drier and cooler for the weekend A stalled front across Lower Michigan may focus showers and thunderstorms today as juicy air feeds in from the south with somewhat drier airmass across the north.
Yesterday's upper low across South Texas has since opened into a broad north-south trough axis while bisecting our forecast area. Despite this decay, favorable PWATs just over 2 inches continued to pool east of the trough axis. Meanwhile, high temps look a bit cooler than yesterday, especially over our western zones where morning stratus will take longer to erode. With the HREF mean performing quite well in this pattern so far, convection may wane a bit earlier this evening than yesterday as the upper trough will continue to weaken ahead of subtle upper ridging for late week.
Generally seeing temperatures in the low to mid 70s, thus trending at or a few degrees above the norm.
High pressure aloft persists over the region and low level ridge axis to the north will keep the activity moving toward the WSW around 15 mph. Poor boating conditions as stout high pres ridge east of the Appalachian Range generates a gentle to moderate E/NE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc.
437 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Hot, humid and predominately dry conditions to continue through the week, courtesy of a persistent upper ridge over the southeast and lower MS River valley. A weak inverted upper trof extended across AL into middle TN, ahead of the wave.
/issued 412 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019/ High pressure is ridging across the area at the surface and aloft keeping easterly flow in place. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s again this afternoon with Heat Index values around 100. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 90s.
For today, expect cooler temperatures and breezy winds.
Upper level low is currently centered over Flagler County with this trof feature encompassing the adjacent coastal waters and NE FL. As a result, east- northeast winds will prevail today between high pressure north of the region and a tropical wave crossing the Bahamas. High pressure will dominate north of the waters while a tropical wave crosses the Bahamas and south Florida through the weekend. Winds will increase to near exercise caution levels Thu as the pressure gradient tightens as the low approaches the Bahamas. As the low passes to the south of the local waters Fri- Sun, combined seas will near advisory levels due to building swells within the outer waters.
336 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Drier conditions return today as temperatures trend warmer through the weekend.
1054 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Mid and upper ridge centered just west of the area will hold firm across the southeastern states through tonight. Mid/Upper ridge will act to suppress convection and provide another generally fair and hot afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low 70s. A 594DM upper level ridge will be centered over the TN Valley and Carolinas on Thursday with an easterly flow through the lowest 15kft.
Upper level high high to remain in place across the mid state through the taf period. However, afternoon and early evening cap strengths will weaken as lower level moisture undercuts the mid and upper level ridging.
However, with western trough swinging eastward from NV into UT/CO, wind speeds aloft will increase, enhancing 0-6km shear to 15-25 knots with some low level turning seen in progged hodographs.
Otherwise, High pressure across the southeast states will keep southerly winds flowing into the region, with some clouds throughout the day. The heat continues into Thursday, but another front slides through Thursday night, bringing rainfall and cooler temperatures to end the week. High pressure across the se US will continue to dominate the weather pattern around the Midwest, with southerly air flow and a slight chance for rainfall. This is due to a few weak vorticity waves sliding along the nw periphery of the High. Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the low 70s across the CWA. Upper level Low pressure will track across the northern US Thursday, reaching the upper Midwest late Thursday.
/Today through Thursday/ Surface and upper-level ridge across the southeastern CONUS to maintain weak southerly flow across the ArkLaTex today. Influence of ridge to suppress diurnally driven afternoon convection across northeast Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s areawide with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Upper-level ridge to build westward across the ArkLaTex on Thursday driving temperatures upward into the mid to possibly upper 90s across the ArkLaTex with the higher values across northcentral and northeast Louisiana.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Aside from the possibility of MVFR CIGS/VSBYs across select terminals near daybreak, VFR conditions to prevail areawide trough 12/12Z. /Today through Thursday/ Surface and upper-level ridge across the southeastern CONUS to maintain weak southerly flow across the ArkLaTex today. Influence of ridge to suppress diurnally driven afternoon convection across northeast Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s areawide with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Upper-level ridge to build westward across the ArkLaTex on Thursday driving temperatures upward into the mid to possibly upper 90s across the ArkLaTex with the higher values across northcentral and northeast Louisiana.
637 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge centered just to our north will act to suppress convection and provide another generally fair and hot day. A 594DM upper level ridge will be centered over the TN Valley and Carolinas on Thursday with an easterly flow through the lowest 15kft.
334 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Tonight and Thursday: Expect mainly dry weather through the period as ridging remains across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs tomorrow mainly in the middle 90s.
215 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Upper level ridging will keep us in a hot and fairly humid pattern into Thursday. Lows tonight should be a couple of degrees warmer than last night, mainly around 70 degrees, and highs Thursday will again reach the lower to middle 90s.
/issued 926 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019/ High pressure along the eastern seaboard and extending southwest across the southeastern states and Florida continues to support an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. It will be another hot day even along the coast as the elevated northeast to easterly wind flow should again keep the west coast sea breeze from forming with highs again climbing into the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. High pressure to the northeast of the area will maintain an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow across the Gulf waters the rest of today with northeast-east winds around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet.
1132 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure will dominate the local weather through Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Fri into the weekend as a cold front drops southward.
and temperatures were ranged from the low to upper 90s. not much expected this period as high pressure throughout the column dominates a large region from the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. High temperatures will return to the low to mid 90s with heat indices again flirting with advisory criteria tomorrow.
High pressure overhead will allow daytime temperatures to warm near the seasonal average, with light winds also present.
For tomorrow, a trough across the western U. The attendant cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma late morning. By afternoon, moderate instability (MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg) will result showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front.
Low pressure currently over eastern Montana but moisture is wrapping around the back side of it this afternoon across Idaho. After that, high pressure building in from the west and southwest will influence our weather pattern through the weekend.
The breeziness is caused by a tight pressure gradient between a fairly strong high pressure center over the southern Appalachians and a well-defined NE-SW oriented trough now entering the Southeast Bahamas. Until the trough reaches the western Bahamas and near Andros Island on Thu night, the breezy conditions will continue with little more than minor diurnal fluctuations. So persistently breezy conditions are expected through at least Thu night, when the trough to our east reaches the western Bahamas.
Supercells are expected to track northeastward becoming more scattered to widespread, then a second line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front in more of a linear setup of thunderstorms and move across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, however confidence is low in thunderstorms developing across southwest Nebraska with the second area of convection.
With almost zero storm motion thanks to high pressure parked overhead, it is possible we could have some localized minor flooding.
The upper ridge over the southeast states will begin to extend westward across Texas on Thursday. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the lower 90s.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Relatively deep moisture and southerly flow in the lower half of the troposphere is helping to promote scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over East Texas. Unfortunately, locations east of a TXK to SHV to IER line will be probably be out of luck for rain due to the reassertion of subsident subtropical ridging influence from out of the Deep South. Tomorrow, the mentioned encroaching influence from the ridge aloft is likely to shut down diurnal convective potential in all areas of the Four State region (although a very stray afternoon shower in Deep East TX might not be totally impossible).
The upper low currently over WY is still expected to push a front into the FA by tomorrow afternoon/evening as the low moves across the Northern Plains.
Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed isolated convection along the higher points of the Cumberland Plateau and also over the Appalachians mainly south of the I-40 corridor. However, the upper ridge in place that has kept us so hot the last couple of days will lose some strength beginning tomorrow. That should yield highs maybe a degree or so cooler than today. That is to say it will be another warm day, with highs in the low to mid 90s, as opposed to the mid and upper 90s from earlier this week.
A cold front will enter far northwest Oklahoma on Thursday, but the wind shift may not reach WWR by 18Z.
Behind the front, expect cooler temps on Fri with highs from around 80 N to around 90 far SE.
235 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Unseasonably hot conditions will persist through the short-term forecast period as an upper ridge remains centered over the Southeast. The upper ridge will remain firmly planted overhead on Thursday with even less convective coverage limited to far north Georgia during the afternoon. The high temperature at Atlanta is forecast to exceed the record set all the way back in 1900 while forecast highs at other climate sites are within 2-4 degrees of the daily records. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models all taking the wave northwest toward the central gulf coast, but noticeable differences with the depth of the low and how far west it gets before turning north.
If clearing skies continue to warm the surface, we could see another round of decent strong storms late this afternoon/early evening as a cold front passes through the area. As the trough (currently to moving across western Wyoming) continues to move east, we'll see upper level flow turn northwest briefly on Thursday.
239 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Lingering precipitation across central and southwest Montana will end this evening as low pressure moves off into the Dakotas by Thursday morning.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast and winds were from the southeast. A weakness in the upper level ridge will allow showers and thunderstorms to continue into this evening.
Scattered showers/storms will continue to develop along the surface cold front as it moves slowly southeast during the morning hours on Thursday.
340 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS continuing to ridge over the wrn Gulf Coast, maintaining a variable but mostly srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery also shows ridging in place over the sern CONUS from the coastal Carolinas swwd through the lower MS Valley. Regional 88Ds show clusters of convection over lower Acadiana and interior sern TX rotating around the ridge.
Upper level trough continues to move east this morning.
The primary focus for the forecast period continues to reside with the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front makes its way through the area. Current water vapor imagery depicts a deepening upper-level trough centered across the northwest CONUS with southwest flow aloft prevailing over the local area ahead of this feature. The upper low will lift northeast as it continues to advect downstream through Thursday morning. As it does so, a speed max will center over northwest Missouri around the base of the trough, which will set the stage for organized convection ahead of the attendant cold front.
Flood Watch in Effect for Wednesday morning through Thursday Cut-off low is expected to form today over SE Montana this evening. Remainder of the forecast is for slightly warmer and generally drier conditions.
Another day of above normal temperatures Thursday before strong upper level low moving across the central Rockies into the northern plains drives a weak front toward northeast OK during the afternoon.
201 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Mid and upper ridge centered just west of the area will hold firm across the southeastern states this afternoon and tonight. Mid/Upper ridge will act to suppress convection and provide another generally fair and hot afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low 70s. The strong upper ridge will persist on Thursday, which will keep temperatures above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
High pressure will remain the dominant feature at both the surface and aloft for at least the next 24 hrs.
/Issued 235 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019/ Unseasonably hot conditions will persist through the short-term forecast period as an upper ridge remains centered over the Southeast. The upper ridge will remain firmly planted overhead on Thursday with even less convective coverage limited to far north Georgia during the afternoon. The high temperature at Atlanta is forecast to exceed the record set all the way back in 1900 while forecast highs at other climate sites are within 2-4 degrees of the daily records. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models all taking the wave northwest toward the central gulf coast, but noticeable differences with the depth of the low and how far west it gets before turning north.
Tonight and Thursday: Expect mainly dry weather through the period as ridging remains across the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs tomorrow mainly in the middle 90s.
753 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Surface and upper ridging will dominate tonight. The strong upper ridge will persist Thursday, which will keep temperatures above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
Drier mid level air wrapping around an upper level ridge centered over the Tennessee valley will work its way into the area Thursday which is expected to keep afternoon convection more limited than usual. /issued 340 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS continuing to ridge over the wrn Gulf Coast, maintaining a variable but mostly srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery also shows ridging in place over the sern CONUS from the coastal Carolinas swwd through the lower MS Valley. Regional 88Ds show clusters of convection over lower Acadiana and interior sern TX rotating around the ridge.
312 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Looking aloft we see the 500mb closed low starting to tighten and become a closed low by 21s centered over the Montana Wyoming state line. The cold front will pass late this evening, but winds will continue to remain strong after the frontal passage.
1033 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Surface and upper ridging will dominate tonight. The strong upper ridge will persist Thursday, which will keep temperatures above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
Lower tropospheric analyses place an anticyclone over the southeastern United States, although 925-700 mb heights have fallen over Florida. A high pressure center will persist over the southern Appalachians tonight through Thursday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 96 72 96 / 10 20 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 94 70 93 / 10 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 95 70 94 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 91 66 91 / 10 20 10 30.
A stout upper level ridge remains parked over the Mid-South. Temperatures are running in the low to mid 90s, on par with expectations due to slightly higher humidity and slightly lower low level thicknesses. Locally, expect another mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Updated at 255 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Upper ridging will be the dominant player in our weather for most of the period, with heat and humidity featuring strongly in the forecast.
Have maintained VCSH thru 12/01Z and after 12/16Z at KSAT/KSSF/KAUS where the higher PROBs are. Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast and winds were from the southeast. A weakness in the upper level ridge will allow showers and thunderstorms to continue into this evening.
Drier and warmer conditions will return to the area late in the week and continue through the upcoming weekend.
Will need to wait and see where convection fires and how far north the warm front will move our way this evening.
The low level shear does not look too impressive at this time, so would think the tornado threat will be quite low. Further north, the low clouds are still in place in Dawes, Box Butte and Alliance counties which will limit the severe potential.
Potential for patchy fog development in the early morning hours, with the highest likelihood of occurrence taking place over inland Georgia where the wind pattern will be at its weakest. Potential for patchy areas of fog forming in inland areas in the early AM hours, with the highest chances occuring in inland Georgia.
Tweaked the hourly values to account for slightly cooler temperatures in a few location and to remove any wording for lingering convection.
20Z surface analysis shows warm front still locked in our far southern CWA, near/just north of Sioux City. Elevated instability does expand northward through the evening in response, with 1000 J/kg or more reaching the Highway 14 corridor by late evening. For Thursday, main upper trough slowly swings eastward into the Dakotas, pushing a cold front eastward across the forecast area.
GFS ensemble mean maintains a weak upper trough over the CWA tonight/Thursday.
601 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Surface and upper ridging will dominate tonight. The strong upper ridge will persist Thursday, which will keep temperatures above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
446 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Looking aloft we see the 500mb closed low starting to tighten and become a closed low by 21s centered over the Montana Wyoming state line. The cold front will pass late this evening, but winds will continue to remain strong after the frontal passage.
An upper level ridge will amplify over the area tonight and Thursday. Yet another trough will move toward the area late this weekend, bringing showery weather to the area and cooler temperatures to the interior.
valid for Thu As the trough continues to move east, the threat of stronger thunderstorms will continue to push farther east.
Winds remain out of the east in the low levels and are more northeasterly aloft. This indicates that an upper level high is located to the northwest and an upper level low is located to the southeast of the forecast area.
The main upper trough is still well to our west over the northern Rockies, but will be closing off tonight and moving into the Dakotas tomorrow. Tomorrow, the low moves northeastward towards the southern edge of the Red River Valley, with the system becoming occluded over our region.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to northern Oklahoma TAF sites as storms develop and move out. For tomorrow, a trough across the western U. The attendant cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma late morning. By afternoon, moderate instability (MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg) will result showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front.
VFR TAF elements will prevail through the TAF period at all sites, with the exception of KBVO where thunderstorms along a cold front may impact that site late in the period between 22z and 00z. Another day of above normal temperatures Thursday before strong upper level low moving across the central Rockies into the northern plains drives a weak front toward northeast OK during the afternoon.
A large trough of low pressure moving over the Western States will bring drier air to Arizona tonight and Thursday.
202 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 An upper level trough will pass through the Great Basin through tonight.
Narrow upper trough east of area and going away. Flat short ridge from yesterday's model run has evolved on paper into a more zonal flow but still dry.
245 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Upper high to remain centered over middle TN today. Some moisture has managed to undercut the ridge and we will see a shrinking cap through the day.