Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The lower amplitude/splitting flow will result in the forecast area primarily being affected by Pacific air masses that have downsloped the Rockies, though the area will also spend a little time on the southern fringe of colder Canadian air masses. A fast moving cyclone will accompany the feature through the region. A somewhat organized band of precipitation is likely along and north of the track of the cyclone, with just some scattered light precipitation to the south. The guidance products that have performed best the past few days were quite a bit warmer than the NBM. Also trended a little warmer than the NBM for temperatures tonight and Wednesday.
714 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will then build in from the west and southwest through Wednesday night.
Trended highs towards warmer guidance around the 75 percentile for most of the area where snowpack has mostly melted.
Thus I left a the mention of freezing rain/drizzle mixing in with any light rain/snow.
As the day progresses, high temperatures above freezing can cause precipitation to fall as a mix or all rain, especially in our southern counties. Some light freezing drizzle within the mix is possible, since warm air aloft will still be present as surface temperatures decrease. The highest totals are expected in Cass County and the majority of northwest Wisconsin.
A light onshore flow is starting in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana as high pressure moves to our east. Start introducing small pops on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region on Wednesday.
High pressure and a virtually clear sky will allow afternoon highs to approach the mid 60s today and Wednesday. Clouds are expected to build tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.
250 AM PST Tue Feb 23 2021 Warm and dry weather continues today with cooler weather expected for the remainder of the week.
A dry cold front will push through northern Utah this morning.
A blend of MOS guidance and bias-corrected guidance gives widespread high temperatures in the lower 70s, which seems reasonable especially given recent trends in observed temperatures.
/Canada border and contribute to a cold front that is predicted to approach the CWA Wednesday afternoon.
Hi res model guidance indicates snow showers and flurries shifting eastwards into this afternoon parts of the central ridge/valley region into the Susq. Precip could end as light rain/snow or even plain rain showers over the valleys of south central PA this afternoon as temps rise into the low 40s. Latest blended mean QPF supports snow totals ranging from 1-2 inches over the highest elevations west and north of I-99/I-80 to little to no accumulation elsewhere.
412 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Despite clear skies overnight, robust ridging aloft and a very mild air mass over the region has kept temperatures quite warm overnight. Westerly winds could gust 30 to 35 mph around sunset, but a quickly forming nocturnal inversion should reduce mixing as this cold front moves southeastward overnight. Troughy northwest flow aloft Wednesday keeps relatively dry continental air over the region.
A dry nearly zonal flow aloft and increasing onshore surface flow will allow highs to warm in the upper 70s to the lower 80s across much of the CWA today. Southeasterly flow develops late this afternoon into tonight and pushes a warm front across the region by late tonight. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in 80s, except for the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
551 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Despite clear skies overnight, robust ridging aloft and a very mild air mass over the region has kept temperatures quite warm overnight. Westerly winds could gust 30 to 35 mph around sunset, but a quickly forming nocturnal inversion should reduce mixing as this cold front moves southeastward overnight. Troughy northwest flow aloft Wednesday keeps relatively dry continental air over the region.
341 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure at the sfc will move into and out of the area over the next 24 hours bringing return flow and moisture depth back to the area.
Hires model guidance indicates light snow will overspread the NW/NC Alleghenies by 15Z before shifting eastward across parts of the central ridge/valley region into the Susq. Precip could end as light rain/snow or even plain rain showers over the valleys of south central PA this afternoon as temps rise into the low 40s. Latest blended mean QPF supports snow totals ranging from 1-2 inches over the highest elevations west and north of I-99/I-80 to little to no accumulation elsewhere.
553 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Winds will remain brisk today as a deep low pressure area tracks north across southern Canada.
Cold front traverses the region late this evening.
With high pressure off to the east, winds will become more southerly with time. A cold front will then approach and move through the region from northwest to southeast later tonight and during the day Wednesday.
/issued 321 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ Our upper level trough has moved off to the east with zonal flow returning to the region. Our next system will be a quick moving upper level trough trekking across the northern tiers of the US on Wednesday. A cold front associated with this trough will push down on Wednesday, potentially hindering our high temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
Highs today are expected to get to around 50 here in the Omaha area, while the NE/KS border should see highs in the lower 60's; a long shot for areas that could only muster highs just over 0 degrees a week ago. NOHRSC snowpack temperatures indicate that continued erosion of the snowpack is expected to take place as well, as all of Nebraska and far southwest Iowa's snow reaches near freezing. Later this evening, a cold front is expected to put a damper on the recent warming that we have enjoyed, returning northwesterly winds to the area.
A weak cold front is then poised to move through the area from northwest to southeast late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a few areas in north Mississippi hovering in the lower 30s, due to calm winds. High pressure, currently centered over the Louisiana's Gulf Coast, will slide east this afternoon.
448 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mid and high clouds will be increasing over the northern two- thirds of the forecast area as a low amplitude mid-level trough brushes the northern zones from late morning through the afternoon. Winds aloft increase over the northwest Colorado Plateau in response to the tightening pressure gradient associated with the trough's passage, so expect modestly breezy conditions there this afternoon. A more amplified mid-level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to northern Utah on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures anticipated across the north as a the cold front associated with this system eases southward to near the I-70 corridor during the day.
Cold advection with this system in the wake of this system is very limited, but will be sufficient to support a prolonged mixing layer into the higher elevations, where POPs will linger into the afternoon. Above average temperatures will result Wednesday before the fast-moving trough and its sfc cold front sweep through, with meager moisture and lift limiting precipitation chances.
/Issued 322 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021/ A nice welcomed quiet and abnormally warm regime on tap thru short term as region is dominated by broad sfc ridging and mainly zonal flow aloft. Temps 5-10 deg above climo norms today with highs in upper 60s to low 70s for most areas, then even a few degrees warmer for Wednesday with continued dry airmass, zonal flow, and more southerly component to fetch with weakening ridge.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting an increase in low top showers in and around the Lower and Middle Keys. A trough of low pressure in the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico will limp through our area today, before becoming stationary and diffuse tonight and Wednesday. Beyond that, an elongated and extremely modest area of high pressure will extend across the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters.
637 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure along with mostly sunny skies and drier air will remain in control of the area through Wednesday.
A warmer and mostly sunny afternoon is expected today. As the surface ridging continues to glide eastward, southerly flow makes a full comeback. Overnight lows will be warmer as well, with temperatures in the 50s. Wednesday will start will morning cloudiness and some areas of fog before a cold front moves in later in the afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler that today due to the afternoon timing of the front.
320 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast MT, with warm front extending southeast through the northern high Plains and a cold front trailing back through central MT and into eastern ID. Another windy day is in store for much of the area, especially for northwest into west central SD, as cold front to the west moves quickly through the region today. Accumulations to several inches are certainly possible over some areas of the northern and northwestern Black Hills through Wednesday, especially the higher elevations. The convective nature to the snow could produce at least locally higher amounts over the higher northwestern Black Hills.
349 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Forecast challenges deal with strong winds today ahead of an approaching cold front. Decided to expand the High WInd Warnings to cover the southern Panhandle 18Z to 00Z today.
The result was a slightly warmer, drier forecast with afternoon highs now in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is more in line with MOS guidance and some of the warmer hi-res solutions. I don't expect it to be as cool as this morning, however, as the low-level ridge should now be to our east which will increase 100-850 mb thickness values.
301 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mid and high clouds will be increasing over the northern two- thirds of the forecast area as a low amplitude mid-level trough brushes the northern zones from late morning through the afternoon. Winds aloft increase over the northwest Colorado Plateau in response to the tightening pressure gradient associated with the trough's passage, so expect modestly breezy conditions there this afternoon. A more amplified mid-level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to northern Utah on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures anticipated across the north as a the cold front associated with this system eases southward to near the I-70 corridor during the day.
413 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast MT, with warm front extending southeast through the northern high Plains and a cold front trailing back through central MT and into eastern ID. Another windy day is in store for much of the area, especially for northwest into west central SD, as cold front to the west moves quickly through the region today. Accumulations to several inches are certainly possible over some areas of the northern and northwestern Black Hills through Wednesday, especially the higher elevations. The convective nature to the snow could produce at least locally higher amounts over the higher northwestern Black Hills.
The cold front has moved through the Northern Rockies last night allow snow levels to drop to most valley locations.
/issued 215 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ Surface ridging continues to shift eastward toward the Mississippi Valley this morning, boosting southerly flow and this afternoon's high temperatures past the mid 70s, especially in southwestern zones. /16/ Cold front associated with departing upper trof over the NE to be draped across our srn areas at the start of the pd.
613 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 [Through 12Z Wednesday] The fog across the TLH to VLD area has dissipated as the cold front continues to move east. The 6Z surface analysis has a slowly sagging cold front extending across the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. For tonight, high pressure looks to park over us, prompting winds to go calm and keeping skies mostly clear.
321 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Our upper level trough has moved off to the east with zonal flow returning to the region. Our next system will be a quick moving upper level trough trekking across the northern tiers of the US on Wednesday. A cold front associated with this trough will push down on Wednesday, potentially hindering our high temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
752 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Cold front will exit the region shortly with some lingering areas of clouds across the region this morning. For the remainder of the day high pressure will build in from the northwest bringing some drier air into the area helping to clear skies. This high will move across the region tonight and then east well out into the western Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. However, it will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula and thus the fair dry weather will persist with temperatures moderating through the week.
Gusty winds will occur through much of the period as an area of low pressure develops and slides eastward. Given progged 850mb jet and tightening pressure gradient, have also gone toward the higher end of consensus wind guidance, with gusts as high as 40 mph possible in the southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Could see a 1 to 5 inch snowfall out of this event which would go through tonight into Wed with the highest amounts across the central U.
Once again seeing a wide range in predawn temps this mrng with sheltered locations AOB freezing, with 40s and lower 50s common elsewhere. Cooler and drier air wl filter in behind the fnt.
519 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Low pressure system over northeast Montana this morning with a front extending south into Wyoming and another along the Canadian border. Band of precipitation along the southern front is mostly rain, although freezing rain or snow is possible depending on temperatures. Canadian front will bring another round of precipitation and some slightly cooler and drier air for late morning. Given the current temperatures around the freezing mark for much of the north, icing and freezing rain potential are still high enough to leave Winter Weather Advisory in place. Weather for the rest of the week appears to be dry despite a series of troughs and a general cooling trend.
Look for warmer temperatures again today with mostly clear skies and light winds as a mild airmass remains over Arizona.
229 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Forecast challenges deal with strong winds today ahead of an approaching cold front. Decided to expand the High WInd Warnings to cover the southern Panhandle 18Z to 00Z today.
635 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
620 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week.
157 AM PST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild temperatures and light winds will continue today except for gusty winds across the ridges. Then, a strong cold front will bring gusty northeast winds and much cooler temperatures Wednesday.
Deviated from raw guidance for temperatures and nudged toward the warmer side during the day and went slightly cooler for tonight due to the dry airmass that will allow the ground to heat and cool more efficiently. Expect highs today to be around 70 across the area followed by lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s to the low 40s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s areawide.
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: VFR under high pressure this morning. Some llws possible in the northwestern terminals overnight as a trough edges closer. High pressure continues to dominate the surface map, with clear skies and mild temperatures climbing into the upper 60s/low to mid 70s. A blend of MOS guidance and bias-corrected guidance gives widespread high temperatures in the lower 70s, which seems reasonable especially given recent trends in observed temperatures.
This flow will remain light enough to allow the sea breeze to develop near the coast each afternoon helping to keep coastal locations several degrees cooler than inland. High pressure will build in over the eastern gulf waters through Wednesday with breezy northerly winds veering to east on Wednesday.
Warmer afternoon temperature can be expected. A few showers cannot be ruled out for the ridges as cold advection in the wake of that system is sufficient to support a semi-deep mixing layer, so slgt, to chc POPs were maintained for a few hours. Passage of that trough/cold front will bring another shower chance on Wednesday afternoon, but problems with any showers combined with melting are not anticipated given limited moisture and system progression.
Tonight, a cold front will move south through the area bringing a northerly winds shift and a period of LLWS.
LLWS likely for all sites this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front should move through NE OK around 08-10Z and into SE OK/NW AR 12-15Z with another period of LLWS likely. The low in Tulsa last Tuesday was -13. With forecast highs in the lower/mid 70s today we're looking at a 85+ degree 7-day temperature swing.
Much of the CWA will be in the high teens around 20% for RH by late morning going into the afternoon as temps climb well into the 60s.
A high pressure over the southern U. Lows tonight will cool down to the upper 40s across interior Volusia and northeast Lake, the lower-mid 50s from I-4 southward to interior Brevard/Osceola and upper 50s-lower 60s from coastal Brevard to Martin county. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s across the far north, low 60s across the the south with mid 60s along the coast, and mid to upper 50s everywhere else. (modified previous Discussion) Dry through the period as a strong mid level ridge builds over the Gulf and the FL peninsula. In the low levels, Atlc ridge axis will rebuild across the FL peninsula from the east. High pressure building to the north of the local waters tonight and tomorrow, will shift light to gentle breezes tonight and persist from the east on Wed.
246 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Southwesterly to westerly winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing low pressure system in the extreme northwestern Texas Panhandle. This low will bring a cold front through the area late tonight leading to a northerly wind shift. By late morning into the early afternoon, even though mixing aloft will increase, the higher wind speeds will be located east of the area hence a steadily decreasing trend in wind speeds for the afternoon.
A thermal ridge has developed across the Sandhills ahead of an advancing cold front moving into northwest Nebraska. Trended highs towards warmer guidance around the 75 percentile for most of the area where snowpack has mostly melted.
1058 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Temperatures range from the lower 70s to near 80 this morning across the Florida Keys, depending on whether or not your location has received rainfall. A trough of low pressure/weak cold front is in the process of slowing crossing the Keys, with most cooler locations in the rain-soaked Lower and Middle Keys. This layer is near the freezing level, so no meaningful ice formation for the necessary charge separation is occurring. From synopsis: A trough will pass through the coastal waters of the Keys today. In its wake, a modest high pressure cell will move from the Louisiana coast on Tuesday across the northern Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.
130 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
Early afternoon surface observations indicate temperatures are rising quickly through the 60s, and will likely top out in the low to mid 70s later this afternoon. Relative humidity has also been dropping quickly as a relatively dry airmass is in place, and this coupled with increasing winds owing to a deepening lee cyclone in eastern Colorado is fostering elevated to significant fire weather conditions across our area. Strong north winds behind the front will advect much cooler air into southwest Kansas, and widespread sub-freezing temperatures can be expected early Wednesday morning, with areas around Syracuse possible dropping into the upper teens.
1009 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
Temperatures into the low 60s in northern TN, MO Bootheel and AR with temperatures into the low 70s in northeastern MS are expected today. Low temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow late afternoon into the evening some light showers could develop over the area due to a weak cold front approaching and eventually becoming stationary over the area. Temperatures are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a few areas in north Mississippi hovering in the lower 30s, due to calm winds. High pressure, currently centered over the Louisiana's Gulf Coast, will slide east this afternoon.
The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a center of low pressure across south central North Dakota, and this low will continue to drift southeast through the day. North of this low, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong frontogenesis continue. Latest mesoanalysis shows 250 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE across the southwest, so an isolated lightning strike or two could be possible with any heavier shower, but due to the low probability nature and uncertainty will refrain from mentioning thunder in the gridded forecast. Expect breezy northwest winds once again Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph and cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 20s north to the mid and upper 30s south.
237 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
Temperatures had no problem reaching the low to mid 30's across the I-10/12 corridor with low to mid 40's across SE LA and the Southshore thanks to radiational cooling. Otherwise, only other modifications were to MaxT's for today with a good 2-3 degree increase from blended guidance placing many in the lower 70's. /issued 341 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ High pressure at the sfc will move into and out of the area over the next 24 hours bringing return flow and moisture depth back to the area.
1018 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 A cold front that moved over east central FL late last night and early this morning will continue to push south of the Treasure Coast. As a cold front continues to move south of the local Atlantic waters, winds will shift from the NNW to N this afternoon.
346 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will provide mostly clear skies this evening through the overnight. A quickly moving cold front brings a chance of precipitation Wednesday along with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures quickly drop with sunset due to remnant snow pack and decreasing winds, reaching the low to mid 30s by shortly after midnight. Temperatures may rise a few degrees before daybreak due to warm air advection on the backside of the high. Warm air advection with southerly flow will continue through midday Wednesday as the high pushes well to the east and low pressure traverses the upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is likely to bring falling temperatures for the afternoon hours in west central Ohio, arriving over the I-71 corridor into the southeast parts of the local area by mid to late afternoon.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 40 70 44 61 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 40 67 42 56 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 38 67 41 57 / 0 0 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 35 66 39 54 / 0 0 10 20 10.
335 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 A ridge will continue building northeast across the region through tonight. As a low moves eastward across the central Great Lakes on Wednesday, it will bring warm northeast across the area Wednesday morning, quickly followed by a cold front Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure continues to dominate the surface map, with clear skies and mild temperatures climbing into the upper 60s/low to mid 70s. A blend of MOS guidance and bias-corrected guidance gives widespread high temperatures in the lower 70s, which seems reasonable especially given recent trends in observed temperatures.