Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There may be some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight along with some fog.
906 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure will gradually build across the region over the next few days, to bring dry weather, with mild temperatures for the end of February. Sprawling high pressure at the surface, and zonal flow aloft, will characterize the prevailing pattern during the early part of the week.
Specific to winds, 925mb flow of 25-30kts perpendicular to Buffalo Ridge will maintain some gustiness along/downslope of the Ridge, as well as other elevated portions of the CWA, through the overnight hours. Remainder of the CWA should decouple this evening, and will likely see elevation reflected in overnight temperatures, coldest in the valleys and warmest in highest elevations and downslope of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN.
926 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Strong positively tilted upper level trough axis is currently residing across Eastern Kansas and pulling out of the OK/TX Pnhdl region of the country late this evening. Lift in association with this trough axis is confined to our southern and eastern zones, in association with the large rain shield across these same locations. The back edge of this rain shield continues to make slow but steady progress eastward across the Lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep East Texas into portions of Central and Northeast Louisiana. With drier mid level air rapidly infiltrating our region from the west with the arrival of the trough, have removed pops for the remainder of the night for all but our southeast third where pops are still categorical in nature.
A weak cold front will work south through the the area this evening with a shift of the surface winds to the north overnight.
/Issued 308 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/ An upper trough will push east across the Panhandles this evening and will usher in a surface boundary tracking north to south across the forecast area.
Clear skies have allowed temperatures to jump into the low to mid 70s across these areas.
602 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure will gradually build across the region, over the next few days, to bring dry weather, with mild temperatures for the end of February. Sprawling high pressure at the surface, and zonal flow aloft, will characterize the prevailing pattern during the early part of the week.
with some decrease in cloud cover gradually occurring over the past couple of hours as high pressure and drier low level air begin to build into the region. and will then gradually diminish throughout the night as the low level pressure gradient loosens in response to the upstream ridge axis building into Michigan.
For the near term/this afternoon and evening, RWIS (Road Weather Information System) temperatures indicate road surface temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. We queried and received reports from State Radio that north-south highways, especially in the James River Valley are experiencing drifting/melting/refreezing and icy spots. Next upper low over eastern British Columbia/western Alberta with an attending surface warm front/cold front will slide across western/central ND during the short term period. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage Monday evening. Visible satellite imagery shows the leading edge of mid/high clouds associated with a warm front/warm air advection which will slide across western/central ND tonight. Winds will be weaker Monday (10 to 20 mph), so thinking right now is the drifting/melting/refreezing will not be an issue like we are having this afternoon.
There was substantial blowing snow for a few hours this morning, but the loose snow appears to be depleting and the low visibilities are much more limited now. This would continue the high wind threat into Monday morning. Warmer temperatures in the forecast for Monday look good. Just a chance of a little light snow in the high mountains as this passes.
Weak high pressure moves across the region tonight into Monday providing dry and quiet weather. Have increased highs just slightly mainly over far northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin where highs should climb into the lower to mid 40s.
GAH PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Strong pacific trough over the Pacific NW today in the process of splitting with one piece to move over southern Canada while the southern piece cuts off late tomorrow and drops south. Fairly quiet conditions then ensue starting tomorrow with a weak cold front shutting off the wind energy by the afternoon. SYNOPSIS: A cold front will bring scattered to broken MVFR cloud bases Monday afternoon.
Low pressure building east out of the Lower Mississippi Valley will pull the frontal boundary which moved through the area earlier today, back into the Southern Appalachian region. Moisture and lifting accompanying the low will lead to showers developing, initially around cha mid to late evening with northward progress to include tys after midnight and then on to tri a little before sunrise.
628 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure builds into the area tonight, but is shunted back by a wave passing to the south overnight into Monday. The high builds back in Monday night.
High pressure was centered over southeast Illinois at 8 pm CST resulting in a clear sky across much of central IL. High clouds continued to stream northeastward from the lower MS Valley through the OH Valley to the New England states. Through Monday, we'll be under the influence of high pressure near the lower Ohio Valley.
940 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure with mild temperatures will move over the area for the early and middle work week.
Brief short wave ridging will move overhead tonight but upper level winds will already begin to back by Monday afternoon. This backing of the winds will be in response to a digging trough diving down the California coast. Surface lee troughing and cyclogenesis will develop in southeastern Colorado on Monday afternoon in response to this system.
422 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Upper trough continues to push across the central states, with another wave moving into the Pacific Northwest, and ridging in between. Surface winds are southwesterly around 10-20 kts, with a weak warm front moving into the CWA. Warmer air will continue to advect into the area on Monday, with the region under southwest flow.
This time the rain will occur mainly over the southeast half of the area as a disturbance lifts out of the Lower Ms Valley.
A mid-level wave traverses the area tonight, although with high pressure in place will see little more than some clouds this afternoon moving eastward tonight. The clear skies and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as the high shifts east of the area. On the lee sides of the Rockies in Colorado, a deepening low pressure will increase the pressure gradient over central Kansas. Gusty winds up to 30 mph will be seen across the western half of the CWA, along with minimum RH values in the low 20s.
Warmer guidance choices are preferred considering snow cover is gone and sunshine will be plentiful during Monday afternoon.
220 PM PST Sun Feb 25 2018 A relatively cold low pressure system will arrive Monday and bring precipitation to the region.
514 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Surface ridging centered over the middle/lower Mississippi River bringing in drier air into the area is leading to a lull in what has otherwise been an active pattern across the forecast area. A weak trough is currently just west of the forecast area, and will move through later tonight. This trough will not bring any rain, but rather some passing mid/upper level clouds.
752 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure builds into the area tonight, but is shunted back by a wave passing to the south overnight into Monday. The high builds back in Monday night.
Low temperatures look to range from the low teens west to low 20s east. For Monday just a few high clouds and warmer. Those lower dewpoints and slightly warmer temperatures will produce critical fire weather conditions over much of the area.
The trough will lift out tonight, with surface ridging able to build over the drenched Ohio Valley.
403 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Strong pacific trough over the Pacific NW today in the process of splitting with one piece to move over southern Canada while the southern piece cuts off late tomorrow and drops south. Fairly quiet conditions then ensue starting tomorrow with a weak cold front shutting off the wind energy by the afternoon. SYNOPSIS: A cold front will bring scattered to broken MVFR cloud bases Monday afternoon.
A trough of low pressure approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southwest winds to the area on Monday.
In fact, short range guidance actually has the surface dewpoints increasing into the mid to upper 20s Monday afternoon (compared to the mid/upper teens today) out ahead of a surface trof/cool front that models have slowed down a little bit. Based off today's readings which seem to be under-achieving in some spots, not carrying the highest confidence right now in Monday's high temperature forecast.
Rodriguez 115 PM CST Mild conditions will begin the period as low amplitude ridging aloft traverses the midwest. At the surface, high pressure in response to the ridging aloft will expand across the eastern third of the country.
Already across the western half of the South Central Texas, dry weather has filtered in and especially across the Rio Grande Plains where surface observations are reporting clear skies and temperatures in the lower 80s.
A surface reflection of this wave was also moving east across western Kansas with northerly winds developing behind the low. Behind this, the upper flow becomes more west to southwest tonight through Monday as a strong trough digs along the West Coast. At the surface, a trough will begin to develop tonight along the eastern slopes of the Colorado\New Mexico Rockies.
Another mild night with low temps in the lower-mid 60s. High pressure will build SE of area early Monday. A cold front will slide across the area waters Monday afternoon and evening.
923 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Low pressure will track northeast this evening bringing an end to the precipitation across the region.
A clipper will pass eastward through Manitoba Monday, bringing warm air advection to the Red River Valley and yielding a mild day with highs near and/or above the freezing mark. With temperatures near the freezing mark Monday and abundant sunshine for many locations, expect any drifting snow or remaining snow and ice on roads and other surfaces to undergo a diurnal melt and refreeze cycle, causing scattered slippery spots. A quiet period coming up weather wise, with high temperatures around the freezing mark most days.
The cold front is finally entering extreme northwest Marion County, behind which dewpoints have fallen into the 40s. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across the south later tonight where the airmass will be slightly warmer.
Short wave emerging out of the Lower Mississippi Valley is on the move this evening, building slowly northeast with strengthening lift apparent from Northern Louisiana through Northwest Alabama.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a potent low pressure system moving northeast over northern Ontario. Low clouds continue to wrap around the low and across northern WI, though the light snow and flurries ended early this afternoon. As high pressure over the Ohio Valley builds north, cloud trends is the main forecast concern. As low pressure continues to lift off to northeast Canada, high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will gradually build into the region. High pressure will continue to dominate our weather.
H5 hts will begin to rise tonight, as a trough of low pressure slides east into the lower Mississippi valley. At the same time, a trough will deepen across the western CONUS, which will build a low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS for Monday. With snow cover and light winds tonight, lows will reach the teens with cooler readings in the Platte River Valley.
Increasing fire danger over the southeast mountains and plains on Only some lingering flurries and patchy blowing snow over the higher peaks of the Central Mountains at mid-afternoon, and expect these to end before sunset and will keep evening forecast precip free at all locations. Mid/upper level flow then bends back to the southwest on Mon as trough digs south along the Pacific Coast, leading to warmer and continued windy conditions across most of the region by afternoon.
Snow will taper off behind a cold front, which is currently situated in northeast Oregon. Valleys will see a brief period of snow with the cold frontal Monday morning. Surface winds southeast to southwest 10- 20 kts except 15-25 kts over the higher terrain, shifting to west 10- 20 kts with the frontal passage.
Through Monday, we'll be under the influence of high pressure near the lower Ohio Valley.
1049 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure with mild temperatures will move over the area for the early and middle work week.
938 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 The cold front has pushed into the far eastern FA, with northwest winds now over nearly the entire area.
The weekend will have a more typical early summer pattern, cooler with more morning clouds.
Low clouds continue to slide east behind advancing cold front. Early this morning a surface cold front continues to scoot south and east across central portions of the state.
Sat looks to be dry and seasonal, as weak ridging moves across the plains. As a SE-moving cold front which at 11Z extended from NE KS thru ~KMPR to the TX Panhandle, crosses KS Nly winds will spread across all terminals with sustained ~13kts at all terminals this afternoon.
An upper level ridge will exit to the east today, and a weak upper trough will approach the region tonight, triggering a marine push tonight.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along a weak cold front north of KABI this evening.
Best dynamics lie south along the cold front. H5/H7 ridging moves into the Plains region overnight into Saturday.
Wave over the high plains may aid in continuing some showers and storms generally over our southern half for Friday.
Some break will be seen later this afternoon to early evening, then models do have the cold front and additional upper level short wave energy to move through the region tonight and into the weekend, with additional rain and storms. Another round of SHRA/TSRA wl affect much of the area later tngt as a cold front moves into NW AR and another upper lvl impulse moves into the region.
802 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
The weakening shear axis aloft will shift more to the west as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico also pushes further west through the end of the week.
716 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Mid and upper level troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with moist cyclonic low level flow across the area. Temperatures today will range from the lower 60s north to mid 70s south. Nam shows a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough in the central U. 12z Sat with a ridge over the Rockies. This trough remains over the area into Sun. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the country 12z Mon. There is also a broad trough over western Canada and also across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The ridge starts to build over the Rockies 12z Tue and continues to build northward over the Rockies 12z Wed. This ridge continues to amplify over the western U.
Highs will range from 65 to 70 over far northern Minnesota to the lower seventies from the Brainerd Lakes region into northwest Wisconsin.
1128 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
Little change in temps with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
The line of storms now moving into southwest Missouri has become the dominant feature and will intercept the low level jet and use up the available instability as it dives southeast. The attendant cold front will push southeast of the CWA by on Friday night.
Shallow troughing over the Central Plains and a complex of storms expected tonight near the Red River Valley should lead to increases in surface winds and humidity over South Central TX today.
/issued 308 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ A mid level trough remains stretched from the Central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Southeast early this morning. Storm coverage should increase tonight as the mid/upper level troughing pushes into the region. Storms, or remaining convective outflow should push into north Mississippi by early Saturday morning with a weak cold front lagging behind across northwest portions of the area. An upper level low will cut off over the Middle Mississippi Valley by mid week and slowly migrate east southeast through the end of the week.
Otherwise, quiet weather with cooler temperatures was observed across central Iowa during the early morning hours. Another trof axis will slip southeast into the upper Midwest on the backside of the system by this afternoon which should lead to the development of a few thunderstorms in northwest Iowa by late afternoon. Subsidence will also spread across the state later tonight ending any threat of precipitation across the forecast area by midnight as weak surface ridging slides into the Missouri River valley. With the thermal trof entering the state tonight along with clearing skies, temperatures should be below normal with readings into the 50s.
907 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A dry and mostly sunny day can be expected as high pressure builds in overhead. Highs will top out in the 70s to lower 80s for the lower elevations this afternoon. Weak energy topping the ridge late on Saturday into Saturday night could aid an isolated storm over the high country, otherwise forecast looks dry.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Northwest upper flow will pass over eastern Montana today while an upper ridge develops over the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge slides east on Saturday per 00z model guidance expect rising heights and therefore warmer temperatures across the CWA.
1115 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Southerly flow continues with Upper level ridging to the east and southeast and broad upper trough over northern Great Lakes and northern Plains States this morning. A cold front ahead of the trough from the Central Plains southwest to west Texas was moving slowly east southeast. Best rain chances will be across the eastern half of the area especially the higher mountains.
1042 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper level trough will be swinging across the divide this morning and re-enforcing the cooler northwest flow. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will ease the critical fire weather conditions of the past several days. The pattern shift is a result of the upper ridge rebuilding over the Rockies as another trough arrives to the Left Coast tomorrow afternoon. The western trough will be advancing to the east Saturday night but also being pushed northward by the expansion of the subtropical high over the Western US/Mexico Border. Models suggest moisture slowly being entrained into the ridge which may allow weak convection to form on the terrain in the afternoons.
High pressure aloft will build over the the area today into tomorrow.
They still have most of the convective activity developing in the interior and progressing the the north west, with the highest chances for the western interior, western Lake region, and the Gulf coast this afternoon. With plenty of tropical moisture in place, it will feel hot with heat indices likely reaching into the lower 100s across many areas as well, especially south. The short term period will continue to feature the Bermuda high becoming reestablished both at the surface and with upper-level ridging aloft.
The activity will occur ahead of a cold front that was approaching the northwest corner of Missouri at 07z. Some of the high-res guidance turns the mcs eastward into southeast Missouri later this morning and early this afternoon. Overall, there is a pretty strong model signal for some type of mcs to cross se Missouri and the Lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon and this evening. The cold front location may be muddled by convective boundaries as well. Therefore, the highest pops will continue to be along and southeast of the Ohio River.
810 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front on Saturday. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. Periodic restriction potential, primarily MVFR, will persist today as bouts of convection plague area terminals in advance of a Saturday cold front.
Overall forcing for ascent will be limited locally, as an upper low remains anchored across Manitoba with cyclonic flow expanding south and east through the Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic coast. Upper ridging across the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will negate pronounced height falls across the Commonwealth, but diurnal heating and steepening lapse rates this afternoon, combined with southwest flow and convective temperatures in the low-mid 80s, will allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm development. A low stratus deck moving into southern Kentucky this morning may act to put a damper on heating for a period this morning, but should see this mix out by mid-late morning as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. Given the likely presence of early day precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures should hold a couple of degrees lower, topping out in the lower 80s.
1120 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front on Saturday. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. Periodic restriction potential, primarily MVFR, will persist today as bouts of convection plague area terminals in advance of a Saturday cold front.
Cooler temperatures will continue through the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the trof and with continued low level stability. Warmer and mainly dry weather is on the way for the coming week.
/issued 358 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ The synoptic situation this morning sees near zonal flow in the eastern part of the country with high amplitude ridging along the Pacific Coast. The ridge out west will flatten somewhat over the remainder of the weekend as a trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest as it weakens.
Meanwhile, a synoptic scale short wave trough will dig southeast from mid to late afternoon across the central Plains. As this happens, a surface cold front will push southeast into the Missouri Ozarks. We have taken a middle of the road approach for high temperatures with most areas expected to warm into the lower 80s.
705 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of high pressure extending from off the coast of southern California, east into Texas. Ridging extended up the west coast of the CONUS into western Canada, while a broad, low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from central Canada south into the north central CONUS. Have opted for the warmer MAV guidance. Skies will clear as well, and with drier air pushing into the forecast area from the northwest, overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 50s.
Weather is expected to remain unsettled through today and tonight as a cold front moves down from the NW across the CWA. and starting in the low 70s this morning all make daytime highs in the low 80s likely.