Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface westerlies will begin to increase as upper level trough pushes south and spreads across West Texas throughout the day. As upper level winds progress toward the surface we'll see surface winds peak by early afternoon around 20kts with 30kt gusts out ahead of a cold front that slowly works south out of the Texas Panhandle near sunset. With upper level ridging building in behind the trough and northerly winds quickly easing behind the surface front we'll see temperatures drop to near or below freezing across the southwest Texas Panhandle and mid 30s to low 40s for the rest of us. Height fields will rebound nicely on Wed under transient ridging, before assuming a more zonal regime through the weekend with at least one embedded trough and associated dry cold FROPA on Thanksgiving.
1028 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
404 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 As of 10Z, WAA pcpn is ongoing over the eastern portion of the CWA with obs reporting rain, freezing rain, and snow. An area of low pressure will move from Colorado, across Kansas, and into Missouri later today through Wednesday morning. With warmer temperatures, snowfall amounts have been lowered.
Upper ridge will bring partly cloudy skies and mild wx the rest of the day. Pacific cold front justoff the northwest coast will come inland today with pcpn starting in eastern Oregon this evening, then western Idaho after midnight, and over all areas Wednesday morning, decreasing in eastern Oregon Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today behind the cold front.
Weakened trough heights hold over the Four Corners region in the wake of yesterday's strong FROPA and main trough passage that generated showers, some isolated thunderstorms, small hail, and cooler temperatures across the CWA. Overnight IR imagery indicates the higher/colder clouds are mostly clear of the area, however some lower level and mountain stratus has developed across portions of Arizona. Skies were mostly clear out across the western CWA in southeast CA and southwest AZ with some 4-5kft cloud ceiling circulating around the desert areas between Phoenix and Tucson and through some of the higher terrain valleys of southern Gila county.
A low pressure system and associated cold front moving through the Central Plains will interact with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico to produce increasing surface winds today. The approach of the cold front will allow winds to diminish tonight to light levels. /issued 424 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The main event in the short term portion of the forecast will be the intrusion of a weak cold front into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will accompany the presence of the cold front, while no significant cold air surge will lead to high temperatures on Wednesday that will remain at well above normal levels.
504 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Along the island chain, another cool and comfortable overnight is being felt with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 60s. Surface wise, an expansive ridge lies from the Upper Great Lakes southward into the Florida peninsula, resulting north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots on our marine district.
and CC product (dual pol) show a mix of rain/freezing rain/sleet along the I 94 corridor. Temperatures remain in the low/mid 30s and not much cooling anticipated. With cooler road surfaces will likely see travel impacts so will keep advisory intact. Temperatures should recover a couple of degrees above freezing which will help roadways which had fzra. Not a great deal of change with thermal profiles so highs again likely in the low/mid 30s as not anticipating any additional areas of significant snow cover. Upper ridging will then build into the area to end the work week and for the majority of the weekend. With a decent 850 mb thermal ridge also building in, temperatures should warm to above average. especially across the west, possibly reaching into the low 40s.
527 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 As of 10Z, WAA pcpn is ongoing over the eastern portion of the CWA with obs reporting rain, freezing rain, and snow. An area of low pressure will move from Colorado, across Kansas, and into Missouri later today through Wednesday morning. With warmer temperatures, snowfall amounts have been lowered.
Latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows ridging building over the southeast and the Gulf of Mexico as a trough moves into the central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast, with a generally light northeast flow over the forecast area. For today, ridging both surface and aloft will remain in place over the region with sunny skies and no rain in the forecast. The moderating trend will continue, with highs several degrees warmer than those for today and dew points on the rise as well. A series of weak upper level waves will move to the north of the region with weak upper ridging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will generally limit any intrusions of drier cooler air into the weekend with temperatures near to just slightly above average.
However, temperatures remained right at freezing and above, with surface temperatures also right at or above freezing. There could be a few slippery sidewalks or parking lots as temperatures remain right around freezing, but with precipitation exiting and temperatures expected to rise, we should be safe cancelling the freezing rain advisory. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be freezing rain/rain/snow over the James River Valley. with the current Freezing Rain Advisory in effect until 9 am CST this morning. an upper level longwave trough was over the front range/western plains this morning. At the surface, a low pressure trough extended from a low in southeastern Saskatchewan.
Water vapor imagery reveals the upper low remains centered over southeastern Colorado and 08z surface analysis has the surface front somewhere near the TX/NM border. Decent WAA in the low levels, 925 to 850mb, will support continued prefrontal convection through the morning hours. As the low level Jet begins to veer after 12z in response to the upper low pushing into western Kansas, expect to see a gradual push for remaining showers/thunder to begin to shift eastward late in the morning hours. with northwest flow ushering in cooler temperatures for Wednesday. This will be short lived as broad ridging sets up Wednesday night into Thanksgiving, with a return to west/southwesterly flow and mild temperatures for Thanksgiving day.
As the deepening upper low in southeastern Colorado ejects into the Central Plains today, its trailing trough axis will approach from the west. Large-scale lift will spread across North and Central Texas this afternoon well ahead of a dryline/cold front combo. The cold front's wind shift will be during the nocturnal traffic minimum, and commercial airports will be able to begin Wednesday in north flow. Rain chances will decrease from west to east tonight as a cold front moves through the region.
This particular feature is evident on water vapor imagery rotating around a deep upper low anchored off the coast of British Columbia.
1022 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather to the area through this evening. However, the high will depart to the east tonight, allowing an area of low pressure to track toward the southern Great Lakes for the middle of the week. A trailing cold front will approach Wednesday afternoon, eventually crossing the region by late Wednesday night.
A ridge will quickly develop by noon and persist through Wednesday morning.
430 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 Moisture wrapping around a closed low now pushing into southwest Kansas will continue to bring rain and snow showers to much of western Colorado this morning.
1046 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure today. A weak cold front mid week.
Weak high pressure after the rain and high elevation snow will keep central and eastern Idaho mainly dry. The upper level trough has more momentum and energy with it, and so precipitation amounts are more and wind is stronger, perhaps even wind advisory level for Wed afternoon and evening. This is the timing of the associated surface cold front sweeping through eastern Idaho.
The bulk of the remainder of the day for southwest KS will be spent in the mid level dry intrusion of the cyclone as it lifts northeast across southwest KS. Any light precipitation will almost assuredly fall in the form of rain, as the freezing levels will still be just a bit too high for snow at even the High Plains elevations near the Colorado border. It would be a cold rain at that, with temperatures likely in the lower 40s along the Colorado border by late afternoon.
/Issued 322 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ Early morning surface analysis depicts a southeast CO cyclone. Synoptic models along with recent runs of HRRRX suggests that main convection will likely hold off until late afternoon (if not after 00Z) as the cold front and sharp upper trof punch into the area. Cooler weather is expected by Wednesday in the wake of the frontal passage.
610 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Aviation An area of low pressure will develop over Colorado today and track northeast tonight. it looks more snow than freezing rain late tonight into Wednesday morning. but northeast counties may very well stay below freezing for much of the day.
Farther east better radiational cooling and generally calm winds were providing for another round of subfreezing readings. On the surface models agree that a near 1000mb low pressure centered in southeast Colorado will fill 15mb over the next 36 hours as it lifts into Illinois. Deeper moisture out ahead of the low and weakening cold front will move slide into the Midsouth today. but the low RH and continuing fuel moistures will provide for an elevated fire danger.
Tranquil conditions across our cwa this morning, as drier air from the west is brought into the region behind the departing upper trof that brought the rainfall on SUN/MON. Current temperatures in the mid-40 to mid-50 range across the desert are expected to recover sharply today as warmer air aloft works its way into the region. Current short-range numerical guidance continues to show high rising into the low-mid 70s this afternoon under mainly sunny skies, very close to normals for this time of year.
Synoptic Setup: A series of progressive ridge/trough couplets/waves will move through the area over the length of the short term. As of this morning the first ridge axis is exiting through the Dakotas. The first Trough axis over Western Montana. the second ridge axis runs up the Pacific Northwest Coast. the second trough lies off the coast over the far northeastern Pacific. This low has a cold front and line of low clouds trailing it to the west which will drop south across the international border late this morning. By wednesday afternoon the next ridge will move through and may bump most of the low cloud coverage out while new higher clouds stream around the edges of the ridge.
Deepening high pressure ridging is forecast to build across the Deep South and Florida peninsula over the next 24hrs. A little warmer along the coast and around 50 (perhaps a few U40s in normally colder spots) at the rural inland mesonet sites. Deepening high pressure with veering N/NW morning winds to NE by late morning/early afternoon.
838 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry stable conditions associated with high pressure surface and aloft over the area will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of today with ample sunshine expected. After a cool start temperatures will rebound quickly under full sun and a northeasterly wind flow with highs returning to near seasonal levels with highs climbing into the lower 70s north, and mid to upper 70s central and south. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with northeast winds around 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less expected.
551 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure today. A weak cold front mid week.
A lengthy high pressure system stretches from north of the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. Mean layer analyses indicate mid to upper level ridging centered over western Cuba, highlighted by the large expanse of dry air sampled by the GOES water vapor channel.
The cold front will move through Oklahoma today and then Arkansas late tonight and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The main event in the short term portion of the forecast will be the intrusion of a weak cold front into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will accompany the presence of the cold front, while no significant cold air surge will lead to high temperatures on Wednesday that will remain at well above normal levels.
Water vapor imagery coupled with RAP 500mb height analysis showing trough of low pressure moving northeast out of the Colorado Rockies. Push of 850mb moisture transport/isentropic upglide ahead of the trough was producing a band of rain and rain/sleet mix out across southwestern MN through northern IA per radar/surface obs. That being said, latest forecast vertical temperature profiles indicate precipitation type could be tricky as it rotates through with a wintry mix of snow/rain/sleet and even some patchy freezing rain where surface temperatures are cold enough. Will have the dayshift keep an eye on surface temperatures today/potential for mixy/freezing precipitation types between the I-90/94 corridors which may warrant an Advisory as well. Precipitation looks to diminish rapidly Wednesday evening as the trough/low pulls toward the Great Lakes Region.
545 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will bring VFR conditions with just thickening cirrus today. Light WSW winds will become essentially calm as the high passes over the area and then E/ESE early Wednesday morning as it moves east. Clouds will thicken further and lower tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. VFR conditions expected with ceilings of 5kft or lower developing between 12z-18z Wednesday as rain approaches terminal with encroaching low pressure. * None Forecast starts off quiet with high pressure centered over lower MI.
southerly winds will be 10-15 knots and more gusty over parts of Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma and shift with the passage of a cold front. Later on today, an approaching short wave and associated cold front will bring an increasing chance for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather.
Temperatures remain in the low/mid 30s and not much cooling anticipated. With cooler road surfaces will likely see travel impacts so will keep advisory intact. Temperatures should recover a couple of degrees above freezing which will help roadways which had fzra. Not a great deal of change with thermal profiles so highs again likely in the low/mid 30s as not anticipating any additional areas of significant snow cover. Upper ridging will then build into the area to end the work week and for the majority of the weekend. With a decent 850 mb thermal ridge also building in, temperatures should warm to above average. especially across the west, possibly reaching into the low 40s.
As usual, readings be a bit cooler along the Cumberland Plateau.
Winds will turn to the north tonight as a cold front moves through. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible later today along the dryline/cold front, generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line. Overnight lows will be cooler tonight behind the cold front, falling into the 40s for most areas.
651 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
Wind speeds will decrease around 23/00Z before a cold front turns winds to the north tonight, mainly after 23/06Z. Upper trof continues to move slowly across the Central Plains. As the upper trof passes a weak dry cold front will drop south into the CWA tonight and Wed. Yet another upper trof will pass by to the north in the progressive flow. but stronger cold front south into the CWA.
Continued dry conditions today but trending a bit more moist in the lower levels as a coastal trough develops along the local Atlantic coast with onshore flow expected by afternoon. Amplifying mid/upper level ridge across the deep south will enable temps to warm several degrees compared to yesterday with high temps ranging from the upper 60s along the coast where breezy winds will near 15 mph while farther inland highs will top out in the lower 70s toward the Interstate 75 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon along the I-35 sites ahead of a cold front. A wind shift to the northwest is expected in the wake of the cold front overnight. An upper level trough over the Central and Southern Rockies is about to move out into the High Plains. Upward forcing will increase ahead of the upper level trough today with streamer showers possible this morning and thunderstorms this afternoon as instability develops. Upper level trough will move to the east across the Plains in the short term dragging a cold front through South Central Texas.
1028 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east into the region through Wednesday.
A cold northerly flow over the area this morning will give way to weak high pressure this afternoon.
a broad upper low continues to spin across southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin this morning with an elongated trough axis extending all the way down to northern Mexico. pronounced midlevel trough axis rotating along the southern periphery of the main upper low now rotating through our area with surface winds responding accordingly as latest obs show brisk northwest winds off to our northwest. A stratus deck associated with cooler temps aloft now also beginning to overspread the area. marking the beginnings of pronounced cold air advection which will keep daytime highs in the low 40s across much of the region today.
936 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the area this evening. Near record high temperatures today will lower to near normal for Thursday behind the cold front.
533 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system continuing to spin off to the northeast, current sitting over central MN. Models are in good agreement showing that main upper low making a continued eastward push through the short term period, moving into western WI by 00Z and further through the Great Lakes/Ontario areas through the overnight hours. Will continue to keep the mention of flurries going across northern portions of the CWA through the morning hours, with models showing a lobe of energy associated with the low passing just off to the north-northeast.
Beyond that high pressure at the surface and slowly rising H5 heights are expected to keep the region dry through the end of the short term period.
1059 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Mild today with showers ahead of an approaching cold front, with much colder temperatures into the weekend. Quick update late this morning to make minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and throughout the day and increase PoPs and winds along the cold front as it crosses the region tonight. Saturation of the low-levels has been slow, as a layer of dry air evident on last night's sounding has delayed the onset of steadier rain. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
For today, cold air advection from breezy northwest winds will allow for a slightly cooler, but seasonable day. Expect many locations to drop to at least freezing, with a hard freeze likely across northern Oklahoma.
920 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A strong cold front moves through this afternoon and evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes region this morning. An associated warm front lifts north producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. A cold front extends south from the low, and is expected to reach the OH river by 18Z. This cold front will bring an increase in intensity of the showers. Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it's possible that the mountains see some light snow showers.
424 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale trough centered Minnesota. This trough extends from the Rockies to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley.
The high will begin to weaken, and slide to the east, ahead of a cold front associated with a low that will move over the Great Lakes region over the next several days. There also some indications a pre-frontal trough may take shape and bring convective activity to South Florida well ahead of the front. When with PWATs climbing to almost 2 inches, and the trough, it creates the possibility for some thunderstorms, especially over the southeast Florida metro areas, and the SOuth Florida waters.
Given these clouds trends, have trended below the cooler MOS across the wrn and nrn portions of the CWA. However, given the wly flow and a secondary area of clouds currently over OK region moving into the area, have also trended twd the cooler guidance further south and east, but not below.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A cold front has nearly passed through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this morning. Return flow sets up on Thursday bringing warmer temperatures and increasing surface moisture.
Only other element of note tonight is stronger winds aloft moving into the region with southeast winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range at the higher elevations.
548 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 A strong cold front has cleared central and southeast Illinois to the east overnight, ushering much cooler but climatologically normal air into the area. A few short wave pivoting around this large low pressure system will keep a fair amount of low clouds around especially north of I-70 Thu and Fri, though light precipitation should stay north of CWA.
/issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on Thursday.
515 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 WV imagery this morning was showing a deep upper trof over the cntrl conus along with a tight circulation/sfc reflection centered over the Upper Midwest. Snow activity all in part to potent vort max rounding the backside of the upper level low.
401 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system continuing to spin off to the northeast, current sitting over central MN. Models are in good agreement showing that main upper low making a continued eastward push through the short term period, moving into western WI by 00Z and further through the Great Lakes/Ontario areas through the overnight hours. Will continue to keep the mention of flurries going across northern portions of the CWA through the morning hours, with models showing a lobe of energy associated with the low passing just off to the north-northeast.
09z surface observations depict temperatures mostly in the 50s east of the Mississippi, with temperatures in the 40s west as a cold front currently lies roughly along the river. Latest H5 analysis depicts a potent upper level low over eastern Minnesota this morning, with a longwave trough extending south and southwestward from the low into the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge was present off the Atlantic seaboard, with resultant southwesterly flow aloft over the local area. The cold front will slowly push through the region this morning, with high pressure building in behind. Surface winds will become westerly as the front clears the region by late this afternoon, with highs ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s under clearing skies.