Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1218 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONTAL POSITION AND CHANGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SW. OUR 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWEST 500 MB SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR PERHAPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Secondary cold front will continue to progress southeast this evening with wind becoming northwest in its wake. Temperatures will be cooler tonight with lows generally in the 60s.
842 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SO CAL COAST FORCES A TRANSITORY RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND ENTER NRN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE WED.
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 23Z/6PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE DAKOTAS. MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IL/IN/KY REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT RANGE IN SLOWLY ADVECTING THE SOUTHWEST TROUGHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.
INJECTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NRN NM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP THAT DIRECTION WITH AGAIN NEAR AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND/OR MODEST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
1203 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 90 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 86 62 87 / 10 10 10 20.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEEN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE CWA.
736 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS ONCE AGAIN PROMOTED A DIURNAL HIGH BASED CU FIELD WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE RESIDES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
1139 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD GULF COAST TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AS THE PERSISTENT TX RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO PROGGED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVERHEAD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LACKING, THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE MARINE AREA AND BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNRISE. EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
603 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COASTS AND SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE.
Easy mixing to 850 hPa will support highs in the lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Dewpoints will be higher on Wednesday, and some moisture pooling ahead of a cold front over southern IA could yield some 70s dewpoints over north central Missouri where heat index values could exceed 100 degrees in the afternoon.
ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WED MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE MORNING HOURS OF WED OVER SRN WI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LLWS FROM 06Z-14Z WED AS A WLY LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS QUIET THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AK /ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COASTS AND SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE.
1248 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
/15/ A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR 90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR.
637 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS DRAWN UP INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SPARKED OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENTLY - THE FLORIDA KEYS RESIDE ON THE BROAD WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS ARC HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE KEYS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN END OF A BROAD RIDGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FINISHED IN THE LOWER KEYS. MAY ADJUST WORDING IN THE LOCAL FORECAST TO EXTEND A BIT LONGER THE HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE KEYS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WESTERN FLANK OF A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA. NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO THE YUMA AREA BUT ARE QUICKLY SHEARING APART AS IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE STATES. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST SD. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND A COUPLE WAVES PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHWEST SD.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REMNANT ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EAST WILL SEPARATE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND RETROGRADE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
1042 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES. RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE UNDER ASSAULT FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
1200 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
H5 RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS MORE OR LESS SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED YET FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION.
UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES RETREATING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHICH WAS SUPPRESSING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INDICATED WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
THIS AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. AS THE WEAKNESS/WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST MORE MOISTURE WILL COME BACK IN FROM THE EAST AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA. GUIDANCE IS STILL PERSISTENT IN THAT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U. AND WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IL/IN/KY REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT RANGE IN SLOWLY ADVECTING THE SOUTHWEST TROUGHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.
723 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW'S APPROACHING 2 INCHES) STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON A DEEP LAYERED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF REGION DURING THE DAY WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE A GOOD BET.
FREEZING FOG OVER SIOUX FALLS CWA SLOWLY ADVECTING EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPS -1C TO -3C SO SAT MAX TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER FOR SAT VS FRI SEEMS REASONABLE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. COOLER BUT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS YESTERDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS ON SCHEDULE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THAT WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING EXITING OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROG WINDS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NAM/GFS AND IS SLOWER FILTERING IN COOLER AIR.
However, a weak embedded wave located over Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday morning. As the mid- level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to low 30s. A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains and into Kansas by mid day Sunday.
CURRENTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S LOOK ON TRACK. BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST.
1158 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED SE OF THE FA. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. SOME SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AND WE WILL SEE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR COUNTIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT PRODUCING A BRISK AND COLD NIGHT. ALONG WITH PROJECTED WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
At the surface, an area of low pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm air east. Because of this think the prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE IS VERY LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN COOLER GFS/NAM AND MILDER ECMWF.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES TROUGH, AND ALSO ON THE VERY OUTER EDGES OF A DEEP OFFSHORE CYCLONE. A VERY QUIET WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING. A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS MILD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS OVER THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST HERE.
330 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Light W/SW winds will continue, however a weak cold front is expected to edge into northern portions of the area during the last 6 hours of the forecast period, accompanied by a wind shift to the NW. /issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side of upper ridge centered off the CA coast. Another trough moves down across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building in for a few days.
PRECIP TO COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH EASTWARD ADVANCE OF UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THEN INCOMING WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DEVELOP AFTER 06Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ESSENTIALLY BEGAN THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS AREA FIRST IN LINE TO FEEL THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND STRONGEST WINDS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING TRUMPS THE MENTION OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS JUST OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF NORTHERN GA. AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS. RIDGE BUILDING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO MIX WARMER PACIFIC AIR ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY TIGHT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE WITH AN AXIS W OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER PRIOR TO RAISING POPS ANY FURTHER.
132 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HYDRO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 AS THE DEPARTING UA LOW WHICH BROUGHT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IS A WEAK UA RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS UA RIDGE IS PROMOTING INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND THIS. HOWEVER A W-SW WIND COMPONENT IS A WARMER WIND COMPONENT WHICH WILL MITIGATE EXTREME COOLING. THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE DEPARTED AND FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO VEER TO THE NW COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WILL SEND DOWN A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/ TO ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE AFTN /MAJORITY OF MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THIS TIMING/.
1247 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 58 /ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S. WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST THROUGH SUNSET. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EAST TEXAS. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY.
307 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW.
An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the west coast.
429 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWING THE AREA COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN MN AT 12Z SUN. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WI BY 00Z MON.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MID 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S MOST AREAS.
THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE TX COASTLINE WILL EXIT OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDWEST TOMORROW. THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING CONTINUING THE CAA. SO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS IS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED REPORT OR TWO OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is expected for the first half of the week.