Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA AT 20Z. WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS NEXT CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE AREA AGAIN BEHIND THE LOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
1242 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS FL/GA ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN GA. ALL THESE SOLUTIONS POINT TO THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH.
STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST WITH THICKENING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OVER OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE TROUGH AXIS WAS NEARING THE SIERRA CREST. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES AWAY TONIGHT. A DIRTY RIDGE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES BY. SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVERHEAD TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VENTURE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING OFFERING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NE MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Heights aloft will be on the rise with the eastward shift of the broad eastern long wave trof into the western Atlantic, while the Rockies upper ridge flattens and moves into the central U.
Expect temperatures to top out in the lower to mid 60s. with the chances of showers increasing this evening ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH CIRCULATION CENTER ACRS NRN WY/SRN MT. UPPER TROF WILL WORK QUICKLY THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NEAR PINE RIDGE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER SATURATION AND SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD TO THE CHUSKA MTNS. ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ARIZONA BORDER. RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP THIS RIDGE CONTAMINATED. WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE WARMING WE EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS FROM OUR CURRENT RIDGE.
A few light showers are possible Friday evening ahead of the front and near the base of the trough where moisture is a bit more adequate; otherwise, the frontal passage should be mainly uneventful. Progressively colder temperatures are expected this weekend as a deep upper low drops into the Great Lakes region and allows very chilly temperatures to back into the region.
337 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 WARMER AND WINDIER WEATHER ON THE WAY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CHIHUAHUA WILL OPEN UP WITH THE RESULTANT TROUGH MOVING OVER SW TEXAS THEN CENTRAL TO EAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH EJECTS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS HIGHER CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS AGAIN. FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH DIFFUSE SURFACE RIDGING FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT/S TROUGH AND DRY COLD FRONT. THIS RIDGE IS STILL SHOWN TO RELAX AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH IN NW FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR WET BULB COOLING IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OR SO WHICH WOULD POINT TO A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. IF WE INDEED SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER ECMWF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS EXACERBATE/EXTEND CURRENT MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
733 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NE AND FAR NRN CWA. -GIH LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE.
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.
WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WE WILL POP SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THAT AREA.
IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA.
ANY SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HRRR/RAP ARE SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND TONGUE OF 70+ DEG DEWPOINTS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN WHAT THE FORECAST HAD OVERNIGHT. WILL DETERMINE IF WE GET FOG LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AND THEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE.
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED N INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS WAS TIED TO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED AROUND HE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
AS THE AVERAGE HIGH IS ONLY 5 DEGREES COOLER AT 64 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM YESTERDAYS VALUES AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A SOMEWHAT POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS WHILE BEING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT DAYTIME MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.
For today, a summertime high pressure system will expand into the region from the southwest, setting the stage for some oppressive weather. Look for highs to warm into the low to mid 90s in most locations today. We will keep POPS on the low side this afternoon as the lack of mid level moisture will suppress updrafts from developing into showers or thunderstorms. Lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s.
SUNSHINE AND HEIGHT RISES WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TDA. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARM ON SATURDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS BEING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY SPLIT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHEAR OUT. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL EJECT THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AN UPPER LOW NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO WEST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE COOLER. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
15Z DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA WERE IN THE 60S. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH THIS EVENING LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MEANDERING FROM NEAR GROUND LEVEL TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET. IT APPEARS THERE ARE A FEW DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE MAIN TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE AREA.
A more organized area of thunderstorms may develop tonight when a weak impulse will traverse the northern periphery of the upper ridge to the south. A continued unstable and weakly capped airmass could allow a few storms to develop at any time during the day, although the highest chances will again be during the overnight hours when another convective complex could spread across parts of the area.
TREND IS TO CONTINUE WITH THE ELONGATED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO WEAK AS THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE, WILL KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PLEASANT AND DRY INTO SATURDAY.
WITH LIMITED CAPE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY.
1205 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK TROUGH/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. AND A FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD POTENTIALLY BRINGING MVFR TO KMBS/FNT BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING BREAKS UP CLOUDS AND LIFTS BASES INTO LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-10KFT CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTHERN LOWER ALONG A WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL SURFACE. AND POSSIBLY SAGINAW VALLEY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE NE. THE LL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
912 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
1233 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
1011 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY.
835 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING.
PROFILER WINDS STILL SHOW A BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF FL AND RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT INTO THE PANHANDLE THRU DAYBREAK SAT. THE LCL SFC PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GOMEX.
WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OUT W STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS JUST TO THE E. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WELL CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWERED TEMPS BY A DEGREE BUT AS CLOUDS START TO SCATTER SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM REACHING THE HIGH TODAY. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A STRONG INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE. SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING MOSTLY WESTERN CO AND LEAVING EASTERN UT RELATIVELY DRY. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH CENTER EAST TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW U.
1104 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
939 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE COOLER SSTS ARE PRECLUDING MAXIMUM MIXING FROM OCCURRING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WEAK TUTT LOW.
THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY FORECASTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NE FL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
711 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK RIDGE TODAY.
1106 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AN UPPER LOW NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO WEST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE COOLER. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
748 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE SW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY. A VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW SAT.
THAT IS UNTIL A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
745 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE ASSURED DUE TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND THE PROXIMITY AND OPPRESSIVENESS OF THE HIGH.
Quiet short term, with ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface.
1135 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015 An upper level ridge currently over portions of the southern plains will cause a nice tranquil northwest flow. Wind will slowly shift from a northerly direction to a more southerly and southwesterly direction by tomorrow as a return flow sets up on the backside of the high. As the ridge aloft moves overhead, surface temps Wednesday are expected to warm. The middle of the week will see a continuation of the seasonable weather for the region as the upper pattern transitions from northwesterly flow aloft to short wave ridging.
THE CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ABOUT 400 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MONTEREY BAY REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
1035 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
For Wednesday, hot and dry conditions will prevail as the upper level ridge has more influence over are area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. 21 (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The upper ridge over Texas will weaken further and break down by late this week, as an upper trough moves east into the central and southern Rockies.
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
SOME CELLULAR HIGH BASE CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE THE HIGHEST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST. ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO EXTEND/BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS.
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE OH RIVER AND AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS ALL OF KENTUCKY. THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE AND WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. WEAK GRADIENT AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEW POINT RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY SOME OF THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE CWA.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO PROGGED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVERHEAD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
842 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HEAT PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 23Z/6PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE DAKOTAS. MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IL/IN/KY REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT RANGE IN SLOWLY ADVECTING THE SOUTHWEST TROUGHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.
852 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
925 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
19Z water vapor shows a closed low off the CA coast with a ridge of high pressure extending from Mexico north into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure was set up over the southern plains and southern MS river valley as a cold front moves south through the Dakotas. There are some signs from the models of isentropic lift and theta-e advection along the nose of the low level jet which sets up along the middle MO river valley. Models show the thermal ridge remaining over the area through Wednesday. With decent insolation and reasonable mixing, highs Wednesday should once again make the lower to middle 90s.