Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
423 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Just when you think it can't get any more windy with a cold frontal passage. A lot of this jet energy along made it to the ground thanks to instability aloft and the cold frontal passage helping to release much of this instability. There is a another jet impulse moving through the flow tonight which will keep a threat of snow going in the highest elevations along with strong wind gusts. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow but the real cold air will not come until the frontal passage Monday night.
653 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure surface and aloft will dominate the weather across west central and southwest Florida for the next several days.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front is still slated to move into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight and is expected to be near a McAlester to Fayetteville line by sunrise Monday. Gusty south-southwest winds will continue in advance of the cold front into the early morning hours. This will be especially true in the higher elevation areas of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. (Monday through Sunday) Cooler and drier air pushes in across the north for Monday behind the weak front, while the warm and more humid air remains in the south and east where highs again reach the 70s.
424 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Western NOAM upper trough will shift east as arctic air settles into the region.
641 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure offshore will continue to bring near record warmth for several days.
216 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Low Pressure system moving south of us through Wyoming will keep producing bands of snow through the area the rest of the day. As the Low pushes east it will draw even more Arctic air into the area with temperatures going well below zero.
553 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 (The rest of this afternoon thru Monday morning) South to southeast winds have returned to the region as a warm front lifts quickly north across the region, currently lying from central AR northwest across NE OK. Should be a mild night for much of the night until a weak cold front pushes into the region early Monday morning across the north, thus leading to another night of large low temp gradient from south to north across the forecast area. Lacy (Monday afternoon through Sunday) Cooler and drier air pushes in across the north for Monday behind the weak front, while the warm and more humid air remains in the south and east where highs again reach the 70s.
So far, this has kept us cooler and has kept fire weather concerns at-bay. Late this evening, winds shift to the west-northwest behind a cold front. Despite the cooler airmass, humidity values are expected to dip into the teens for large portions of the area as dewpoints fall to the single digits.
511 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Just when you think it can't get any more windy with a cold frontal passage. A lot of this jet energy along made it to the ground thanks to instability aloft and the cold frontal passage helping to release much of this instability. There is a another jet impulse moving through the flow tonight which will keep a threat of snow going in the highest elevations along with strong wind gusts. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow but the real cold air will not come until the frontal passage Monday night.
Expect a quiet night tonight, with decreasing wind speeds and just an isolated flurry or two in the high country.
The Waterville Plateau given the high exposed area to the wind will likely achieve similar wind chill readings into Monday morning. Then the lower cigs continue into Monday even as that dissipates.
The ridging will keep shower activity in check but, winds could advect higher moisture content into the region periodically and induce isolated to scattered showers. Breezes will remain backed from the northeast as a ridge consolidates around Florida through Monday afternoon. The ridge to the northwest will continue to expand to the east and cause winds to clock around back to the east and southeast while freshening by Monday night.
Upper ridging will remain in place across the northern Gulf, which will continue to keep a hold on our region. /28/ Monday night through New Years Day: Monday evening the first of three cold fronts to drop into our region through the period will be stalling across north Mississippi while ridging surface and aloft centered southeast of our CWA tries to remain dominant.
The next storm system will roll through tonight through Monday night, with another round of snow for the Sierra and Spring Mountains, and strong winds for the high elevations and portions of the San Bernardino County deserts.
1030 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Western NOAM upper trough will shift east as arctic air settles into the region.
A band of snow of has intensified along the leading edge of an upper trough digging into southeast Oregon this evening.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 60 70 63 71 / 10 20 50 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 59 71 62 68 / 20 30 40 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 66 58 69 61 67 / 30 30 50 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 54 69 57 66 / 30 30 30 60 90.
300 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 Overcast or mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures cooler today but still well above normal. A ridge over the Gulf will slowly shift eastward over the course of the week. The ridge weakens and deeper moisture will push into the region, increasing rain chances towards the later half of the week. The axis of a mid and upper level ridge will shift east of the forecast area today. The clouds will likely linger into the afternoon keeping temperatures cooler than the previous day but still well above normal. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s, although if the cloud cover holds on longer or breaks earlier than expected then the temperature forecast will need to be re- evaluated.
The Waterville Plateau given the high exposed area to the wind will likely achieve similar wind chill readings into Monday morning. JW 06Z TAFS: Snow showers will persist into Monday morning mainly from the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene areas down through the Palouse as a low pressure system interacts with an arctic boundary dropping over the area.
This is in response to an amplifying upper-level pattern and subsequent trough axis propagating through the southeast. Dry, stable high pressure remains in control.
Monday will be much cooler, especially coming off the record warmth observed Sunday, but afternoon temperatures will still be about 4-6 degrees above normal for the time of year.
1102 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 (The rest of tonight) A cold front is still slated to move into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight and is expected to be near a McAlester to Fayetteville line by sunrise Monday. Gusty south-southwest winds will continue in advance of the cold front into the early morning hours. This will be especially true in the higher elevation areas of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. (Monday through Sunday) Cooler and drier air pushes in across the north for Monday behind the weak front, while the warm and more humid air remains in the south and east where highs again reach the 70s.
This boundary will continue moving north overnight as southerly winds increase due to pressure falls across the Ohio Valley ahead of the high plains storm system as it moves toward the Great Lakes.
A trough will park itself over the western U. Today we will see cooler temps behind the Pacific front that moved through yesterday. Flow looks to turn briefly zonal before the western trough finally ejects and heights rise out ahead of it.
The main upper trof remains over the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure has shifted into Minnesota, with Arctic high pressure settling over the Northern Plains. Weak upper ridging will cross the area today with mainly quiet weather and mostly sunny skies expected.
Very mild temperatures in the lower 60s can be expected to arrive later today south of Highway 30. The next low pressure area that will move through Tuesday will have a similar track to the one today. Rain and much warmer air will briefly spread into the area today ahead of a low pressure area. Some brief travel issues are possible, but overall temperatures should stay above freezing through Tuesday night limiting weather related issues.
Short term (Today - Tuesday): Models depict deep-layered high pressure remaining in control of the region through the short term. Generally dry conditions will continue to prevail, with maybe a little moistening of the lower atmosphere.
Temperatures at cloud level run into the dendritic growth zone so no concerns about freezing drizzle with this one. The exception will be later in the week when a low pressure system will track across Kansas and Oklahoma.
(Today and tonight) Another very warm and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge still in place across the area.
As the morning continues daytime heating and mixing will help to erode the low clouds and fog with skies becoming sunny by mid to late morning and into the afternoon as high pressure surface and aloft remains in control. High pressure over the area will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with southeast to south winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
540 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021 The mean, long-wave trough at mid-levels remained over the West with an exceptionally strong jet moving through its base. A cold front associated with this system will push across the northern portion of the forecast area this evening, then continues south of the I-70 corridor late tonight before finally pushing south of the UT/CO border by midday Tuesday.
The midlevel ridge that has been in the Central Gulf this weekend will slide eastward to over the Caribbean by Monday night. The ridge slides further east Tuesday night into the Atlantic producing southwesterly flow aloft.
Ridging aloft has help suppressed rain and brought on unseasonably warm temperatures.
and Tuesday Light snow will change to freezing drizzle or drizzle as the upper trough exits the area along with the mid level moisture and ice crystals. A cold front will move through during the afternoon followed by west winds gusting to 30 mph in the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will get above freezing over all but Northcentral Wisconsin, but there could be some blowing or drifting snow when the wind picks up. Clearing is expected this evening as high pressure moves into Wisconsin. CLouds will increase Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches.
A cold front will slide through the area Tuesday night bringing somewhat colder temperatures, albeit still above normal.
422 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 Partly cloudy skies prevail across the Florida Keys on this early Monday morning, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s at the coolest interior locations such as North Big Pine to the lower 70s at waterfront sites such as Key West Airport, and winds on land mainly from the east at 5 mph or less. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure centered over the Florida peninsula, while aloft a deep ridge is centered over the Gulf of Mexico. This combination will provide mainly dry and mild to warm weather through the week, with temperatures remaining above normal and cold fronts unable to approach due to the ridge aloft.
532 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 (Today) A weak cold front has pushed south into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and will continue south today before stalling near the Red River. Temperatures north of the front will be a bit cooler today, but still well above the seasonal averages.
Snow continued over all but the Montana border counties as of this writing and the cold front was approaching a Rugby to Jamestown line. Will expect about four hours of blizzard conditions with the highest wind speeds through the James River Valley and adjacent counties to the west of that river valley.
533 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 (Today and tonight) Another very warm and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge still in place across the area.
(Today) A weak cold front has pushed south into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and will continue south today before stalling near the Red River. Temperatures north of the front will be a bit cooler today, but still well above the seasonal averages.
416 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Snow continued over all but the Montana border counties as of this writing and the cold front was approaching a Rugby to Jamestown line. Will expect about four hours of blizzard conditions with the highest wind speeds through the James River Valley and adjacent counties to the west of that river valley.
Combined with air temperatures in the low single digits to below zero, the apparent temperature will be frigid for the morning commute. The mean flow will become more west to northwest late this morning and early afternoon, as a deep open wave trough moves south out of British Columbia. Widespread valley temperatures in western Montana will be in the low single digits, to below zero for the Tuesday morning commute, with the afternoon highs not getting out of the teens.
Rain will taper off from west to east through the afternoon and evening ahead of another cold front pushing through the region.
223 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Another short wave currently in the Intermountain West was rotating around a long wave trough covering western North America. However, the lower levels of the atmosphere will not be conducive for measurable precipitation. This will bring lee cyclogenesis/troughing increasing the surface winds for Tuesday. Broad upper level longwave troughing will continue to engulf much of western North America through most of this week, with the evolution of the synoptic pattern largely controlled by a nearly stationary deep upper low over south-central Canada and expansive upper ridging over the Gulf of Alaska.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging has settled in across the Florida Peninsula for the time being. The ridge over us now will slide east over the next few days and settle across the western North Atlantic. The first is some additional moisture may pivot around the periphery of the ridge and could lead to some isolated showers.
247 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Increasing high cloud cover and limited mixing has kept temperatures several degrees cooler than expected today. A strong cold front then moves into the area by mid morning Tuesday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 61 71 63 72 / 10 20 70 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 60 71 62 71 / 10 20 50 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 68 59 69 61 68 / 20 30 60 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 56 69 57 68 / 20 40 30 50 80.
1038 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 No major updates this morning as high pressure remains in control over the region. Short term (Today - Tuesday): Models depict deep-layered high pressure remaining in control of the region through the short term. Generally dry conditions will continue to prevail, with maybe a little moistening of the lower atmosphere.
332 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 High pressure offshore will bring near record warmth for the next several days.
Moisture will rapidly increase tonight as a warm front lifts into the area and strong low level southerly flow becomes established.
256 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 Discussion/Marine - A couple more rounds of light snow/mix this week The pattern of warm advection "bursts" of light snow and mixed precip going to a mix of freezing drizzle/drizzle repeats again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico ESE across south FL and the Bahamas.
Latest surface analysis shows that the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains remain just ahead of a slowly encroaching warm front. Further warm advection will help temps creep above freezing by mid-afternoon. As such, light additional freezing rain accumulation can be expected with passing showers. The responsible low pressure will move across Erie this evening, with the attendant cold front stretching southwestward through the Ohio Valley. Showers will continue until the cold frontal passage (02-06z / 9pm-1am EST), with perhaps some rumbles of thunder given the available MUCAPE. The difference between this system and the system that brought snow accumulation and freezing rain on Monday morning is timing. There is less of a chance for freezing rain with this system, as temperatures at the surface are generally warmer but the chance remains non-zero for far northern counties.
(Through tonight ) The front that moved south across northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma has stalled in far southeast Oklahoma and will begin to work north as a warm front tonight. A few areas of fog could occur with warm front as it lifts north. (Tomorrow through Monday) Drier air will come into the region during Tuesday as the warm front lifts out of the area and southwest winds develop in its wake.
No major updates this morning as high pressure remains in control over the region. Have a wonderful Monday! Short term (Today - Tuesday): Models depict deep-layered high pressure remaining in control of the region through the short term. Generally dry conditions will continue to prevail, with maybe a little moistening of the lower atmosphere.
Rain and much warmer air will briefly spread into the area today ahead of a low pressure area. Some brief travel issues are possible, but overall temperatures should stay above freezing through Tuesday night limiting weather related issues.
1127 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 (Today and tonight) Another very warm and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge still in place across the area.
The band of snow along the cold front near the Nevada border will continue to slowly shift southward today. Instability associated with an upper trough will support isolated to scattered snow showers across the remainder of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through this afternoon. Gusts to gusts to 20 kts over the higher terrain including outside of the Snake River Plain.
1146 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 (The rest of today) A high pressure located across KS will continue to move ENE through the day today which will loosely help to push a cold front that is currently located across SE OK into W-central AR continue to push south and southeast.
(The rest of today) A high pressure located across KS will continue to move ENE through the day today which will loosely help to push a cold front that is currently located across SE OK into W-central AR continue to push south and southeast.
At 100pm MST, temps across far SW SD were in the lower 40s while temps across NW SD are near zero to 10 below. Another weak wave will round the upper trough tonight, bringing light snow to NW SD through the northern Black Hills and into NE WY.
1112 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021 The mean, long-wave trough at mid-levels remained over the West with an exceptionally strong jet moving through its base. A cold front associated with this system will push across the northern portion of the forecast area this evening, then continues south of the I-70 corridor late tonight before finally pushing south of the UT/CO border by midday Tuesday.
Milder (warmer) air will shift back north on Tuesday, continuing the much above average temperatures across Oklahoma and north Texas.
913 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Everything continues to evolve as expected with snow diminishing across the east as the upper low moves out of the area. Will probably start dropping winter headlines at least across the west and portions of the central shortly as conditions continue to improve but will likely have to replace these products with a Wind Chill Advisory given the breezy winds and strong cold air advection that continues to filter down behind the low. Snow continued over all but the Montana border counties as of this writing and the cold front was approaching a Rugby to Jamestown line. Will expect about four hours of blizzard conditions with the highest wind speeds through the James River Valley and adjacent counties to the west of that river valley.
The high pressure system will slowly shift eastward out into the southwest Atlantic through the time period. Have continued to forecast on the higher side of guidance for temperatures due to the warm/dry pattern and southerly flow. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s area wide under mostly to partly sunny skies.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 71 63 72 61 / 20 70 80 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 71 62 71 58 / 20 50 70 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 59 69 61 68 57 / 30 60 70 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 69 57 68 55 / 40 30 50 80 80.
A key trend noted today: A colder airmass is forecast for this event which means an above-freezing layer that is more shallow than what was discussed yesterday. A broad trough over the western third of the US will continue to provide active but mild weather to our area.
To the north, veil of high clouds moving into the area as a weak upper level trough approaches, with radar showing some 20-40dbZ returns. The passage of this trough tomorrow will add a wind shift to the west tomorrow and driving down humidity values which had improved today.
Deep layered ridging over the region this afternoon will slowly slide east into the Atlantic and extend back to the west across the central Florida peninsula through the end of the week and into the start of the upcoming New Year weekend. Stable dry conditions under the ridging will support pleasant dry weather across the forecast area each day through the period with adequate low level moisture and light winds supporting some fog development, some locally dense during the late night and early morning hours.
Deep layer ridge is in the process of settling in over the Florida Peninsula. This subtle convergence is creating a narrow band of clouds that resides over the Straits of Florida south of the lower Keys, back up to near Bimini Island. The ridge settling into across the region will also mean dry weather for the Florida Keys. Ridge currently over the Florida Peninsula will slide east overnight.
Low pressure will move across Lake Erie this evening, with the attendant cold front stretching southwestward through the Ohio Valley. Showers will continue until the cold frontal passage (02-06z / 9pm-1am EST). Temperature will continue to rise overnight with warm advection until the cold frontal passage, when temperature will drop back down the upper 30s, low 40s. The difference between this system and the system that brought snow accumulation and freezing rain on Monday morning is timing. There is less of a chance for freezing rain with this system, as temperatures at the surface are generally warmer but the chance remains non-zero for far northern counties.
Falling temperatures are likely during the afternoon hours across portions of central and south central KS as a cold front ushers in much cooler air later in the day on Tue. A reinforcing surge of cooler air is expected in the wake of this system with lows falling into the teens and 20s. A cold front may bisect Kansas at the beginning of the period with a wide range of temperatures anticipated on either side of the boundary.
A strong upper low continues to move through SW Canada with wave after wave of troughs sweep through the northern Rockies.
658 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 High pressure surface and aloft persists over the Florida peninsula with another night of clear skies, mild temperatures, and late night/early morning fog developing. The center of high pressure will begin to migrate a bit further east on Tuesday which will allow boundary layer winds to veer to the southeast and south. Though temperatures have been running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, the increasing south/southeast flow will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees warmer over the next couple of days.
710 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 High pressure offshore will bring near record warmth for the next several days.