Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE BEST CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
923 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY FANFARE.
AND SUBSTANTIAL RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR PENINSULA.
544 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE THICK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST AS UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HAD BEEN REPLACED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AT ESTHERVILLE TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW MID 40S SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA QUICKLY DROPPED TOWARD SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY AND BY 00Z SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WOUND UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z. THIS AIR IS MODIFIED WARMER AFTER 06Z AND THE SATURATION SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT /AND AT TIMES VARIABLE/ SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT KCDS THURSDAY MID-MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN WILL SEE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVE FROM THE 4-CORNERS THIS AFTN TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER DESPITE THE FRONT WITH PROGGED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUGGESTING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE IN FULL THROTTLE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SONORA THURSDAY EVENING.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH LFT AND ARA. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAVING JUST SLIPPED PAST BPT WILL BE MOVING THRU LCH AND AEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LFT AND ARA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH LA AND SOUTH AR THIS AFTERNOON. STRETCHING SW FROM THE LOW A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED INTO EAST TX.
IT INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U. A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER FOG LATER TONIGHT IN ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BOTH MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSES MIXING OUT THE FOG. STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. TRAILING DRY SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT.
628 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 12Z UPPR AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH THE H5 CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SW MANITOBA. SOME MIXING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH AND THIS CREATES CONCERNS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A QUICK FALL IN TEMPERATURES OVER OUR ERN CWA AND TEMPERATURES ON THU NIGHT MIGHT BE NEAR FREEZING FOR THESE AREAS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE THE WESTERN US TROUGH MAY START TO PROGRESS EWD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE AREA WITH A SCHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD NEXT WED.
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SHOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AND HELP TOUCH OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS CLEARED THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS. THE DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF WA.
940 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH S/SW TO NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE AND IS OOZING SEWD. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF ASSOCD WITH THE WIND SHIFT/TROUGH BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. LIGHT W TO WNW FLOW AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A GOOD SET-UP FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. DIMINISHING TO A LIGHT/GENTLE BREEZE AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH NUDGES ITS WAY THRU CENTRAL FL.
931 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING UTAH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
739 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK. FIRST WIND SHIFT IS APPROACHING THE RIDGES WITH ONLY MODEST COOLING BEHIND IT AS MAIN FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE RIDGES WITH FIRST FRONT. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIVE MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY.
721 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY.
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
/issued 248 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ In the wake of a cold front that moved through the region this morning, highs today will top out in the upper 60s across southeast New Mexico to the low 80s in the Rio Grande Valley, near and just below normal for this time of year, and a far cry from the warm temperatures we experienced yesterday. Temperatures will warm above normal once again on Thursday with southerly to southeasterly return flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, with increasing cloudcover and precipitation chances ramping up across the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday afternoon. Rich Gulf moisture will be routed into the region ahead of the aforementioned trough, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DECREASING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
637 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 Secondary cold front about to enter the northwest part of the CWA early this afternoon. Deepening upper low is dropping southeast and was centered over southwest Minnesota early this afternoon. Punch of dry air across the northern CWA will keep skies mostly clear overnight, but the large stratocumulus shield to our north will be sinking southward in the wake of the low passage, and clouds will be increasing toward sunrise north of Peoria. A deep upper low over the eastern Dakotas will progress over lower Michigan by 12z/7am Thursday. Cold air diving south behind the low will create a chilly/blustery day across central Illinois.
622 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY.
610 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY FANFARE.
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SHOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WATERVAPOR/IR SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WA/ORE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE IT SHOWS THE NEXT WARM FRONT. SW TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A LITTLE MORE WIND THAT WE/VE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
SO THE IDEA OF A WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING. BUT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THRU 06Z BEFORE GRADIENT SLIPS SOUTH. NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING BACK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SRN MN AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS AND EXPECT TO SEE PRECIP SPREAD BACK SOUTH THRU THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVENING ENDING LATER TONIGHT. AS FOR PTYPE WITH WARMER AT AT 925 MB MOVING IN AS WELL AS SFC WARMING DO EXPECT THE WET SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT IN AREAS THAT GOT THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING (BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-ITASCA-PARK RAPIDS).
815 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WHILE KIWX RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING THRU THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CREATING 200+M HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE 75-80KT SPEED MAX MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE AREA REMAINS IN EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
A longwave trough centered across the middle portion of North America will slowly shift east through the period as a ridge begins to build across western North America. Once this wave passes later on today and tonight, we will see a reinforcement of high pressure and cooler air tonight. We expect another night of sub-freezing temperatures, perhaps over a larger area. High pressure at the surface will result in an overall weak pressure gradient through the TAF period, thus winds will remain less than 12 knots.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTN WITH A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG IT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
349 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT COOLER NW FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INDUCE SOME LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST EXPECTED.
A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
1253 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD FRONT EASTERN IOWA AND EASTERN MISSOURI WILL SWING THRU AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
432 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS.
1144 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NW WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. LEANED ON THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S IN NE MINNESOTA. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.
UPSTREAM TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. VORT LOBE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS MANAGED TO TAP INTO SOME ERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ARRIVES LATE EVENING. GUIADANCE IS SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY DOES NOT LAST TOO LONG.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING COUPLED WITH THE MEAGER BUT APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. BUT FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL DROP NEAR FREEZING. WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE PROMPTED ADDITIONAL WIND SHIFTS.
/ISSUED 229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN THE MEMPHIS AREA AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL A BIT AS ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE NORTH.
300 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BY SATURDAY.
343 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE WARMER THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
400 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Cold front will push through the forecast area by around noon. Cooler conditions will filter in overnight and last through the weekend as high pressure presses east into the Ohio Valley.
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART THE REGION. WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN MOVING IN ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY TOMORROW MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR KMCW TO KFOD TO KICL. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLING INTO IOWA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRETCHED FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE TX AND EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. ALSO FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN AS THIS OCCURS ENDING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS EAST OF TUCSON LATE TONIGHT.
A slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area on Friday behind the cold front currently pushing across the region. Highs Friday will warm into the lower to middle 60s which are right at normal for early November.
229 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Expansive ridging building in behind last night's cold front has brought rapid clearing to the region, with mostly clear skies expected most of the day today across the region. Northwesterly winds will keep temperatures about 10 to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still right around average for early November with highs in the upper 50s. The passage of a weakening upper-level trough axis will bring an increase in clouds overnight along with the possibility of a few light rain showers or sprinkles, mainly across far northern Missouri.
1051 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN AREAS AT 1 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
342 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS THE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS ARE INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE LINGERING QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. A GUSTY COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NM FRIDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. AS A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
455 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 OUR STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A COOLER. SCATTERE SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SHEARING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL OH. EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SOUTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GLAKS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DELIVERING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR BECOMES QUITE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY AS CAD CONTINUES AND AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE UPSTREAM KICKER IS NOW RE-ENFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH FROM COLORADO TO MINNESOTA. THEREFORE WENT WITH THE COOLER SHORT RANGE MODEL TEMPERATURE BLEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO -6C DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A 500MB UPPER TROUGH.
303 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE DVN CWA TOWARD EASTERN ILLINOIS. COOLER TODAY BUT MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AS 850MB HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A solid line of moderate to at times heavy rain with scattered t- storms has pushed into the area ahead of an approaching cold front and sharp upper level trough. A lot of the high-res models do indicate that much of the line will weaken between 12-18Z, so have backed off on POPs during that time frame. Extent of this rainfall northward into south central KY will largely be determined by how far south the cold front makes it this afternoon.
AS THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL RECEIVE A SECOND PUSH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
/ISSUED NOV 5 3:32 PM EST/ ONE MORE DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -10C RANGE. AN NON-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL. THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A COOLER. STRATUS AND FOG ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COMBINED WITH IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS LATE LAST EVENING. WILL KEEP MOST VSBYS IN THE 1-2SM RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS OVER NORTHWEST PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK.
155 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST IS NOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.