Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Ridge of high pressure extends from southwest Texas northeast through central Missouri and continuing northeast into the upper Midwest. This ridge will drift southeast tonight and Saturday. Remainder of the area will probably be a bit warmer due to the passage of the ridge axis and subsequent warmer return flow from the south.
Sunny skies will prevail behind a cold front this afternoon. Highs will peak in the low to mid 80s from Apalachicola through Valdosta and locations southeast.
322 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 An upper level trough and attendant cold front will track east across the Carolinas this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region from the northwest in the wake of the front tonight and Saturday. Strong forcing in the form of of 120m-180m height falls (170m at BNA this morning) and intense FGEN showing up from 925mb through 700mb, courtesy of a deep upper trough swinging through the Ohio/Tenn Valley and a cold front near the US-1 corridor, coupled with up to 500 j/kg of warm sector MLCAPE, has lead to a very recent formation of a broken band of convection. Winds will again weaken Saturday night, possibly enough so to decouple across the southern and western Piedmont as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Meanwhile another trough of low pressure will move into the Cascades this evening and through the north Idaho Panhandle overnight.
High pressure will keep skies mostly sunny this weekend while allowing for temps to warm to above normal levels.
High pressure and clear skies will lead to VFR conditions through the period.
215 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016 Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario to the Southern Plains will shift eastward across the area tonight, providing mostly clear skies and light winds. The ridge axis will be centered over the eastern KILX CWA by 12z Saturday, with some light return flow developing further west across the Illinois River Valley. and with dewpoints currently ranging from the middle 30s west to the lower 40s east, think these numbers look reasonable. Once the ridge axis shifts further eastward, southerly return flow will bring warmer air back into the area on Saturday. With south winds and full sunshine, afternoon highs will reach the lower to middle 60s.
In the mid-upper levels, a deep longwave trough was moving east into the Mid-Atlantic states and New England, with a high pressure ridge over the Southwest U.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure exists over the Desert Southwest with it arching up into the intermountain West forcing southwest to zonal flow over northern California through Idaho and Montana. A large pacific trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and is trying to move inland.
238 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Dry and rather mild weather should prevail through the short term as broad area of high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates the pattern in advance of a strong upper trough approaching the West Coast.
Cold front across north Florida will sweep southward through the peninsula followed by a surge of cooler and drier air (the coolest since early May) on increasing northwest to north winds. High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will build eastward with a ridge axis extending into the western Atlc.
overnight lows will not be as cool as last night's with most areas falling into the lower to middle 40s by morning. Southwest winds to increase on Saturday as leeside troughing develops along the Front Range. Continued southerly flow will increase 850 temps to the 14 to 16C range which will support highs in the lower 70s Saturday afternoon.
1143 AM MDT FRI OCT 21 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level dome of high pressure will slide eastward across NM today. Upper level ridging will dominate the weather pattern today before the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend.
High pressure is shifting east today with a southwesterly flow developing for the weekend.
Stratus clouds that have been shrouding many area east of the MS River overnight will gradually push east with H50 trof this morning, leaving most areas of western KY/sw IN with plenty of sunshine by noon. However, chilly high pressure nudging eat into the MS River Valley will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite the return to sunshine. In fact, will not rule out patchy frost later tonight as winds slacken underneath the high pressure system and skies remain clear. High pressure will begin to push a little farther south over the weekend, allowing winds to turn swly and a warming trend to commence.
An inverted trough associated with the low will then bring a chance for light rain showers along the international border Saturday night.
High pressure will slide eastward with southerly winds increasing along the backside of the high. This high will move off to the east by Saturday, allowing southerly winds to return.
224 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Upper level trough keeps showers and clouds around into tonight.
Lows Saturday morning are generally in the lower 40s. No big changes for Saturday with the exception of slightly warmer temperatures than today. Highs are slightly warmer in the lower to middle 70s.
Relatively uneventful short term period in store as cold front leaves dry and breezy conditions in it's wake.
352 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 A warm front/trough will move across the forecast area tonight. Saturday to remain dry with the warm wedge still over our area and the sunshine we should get should also boost highs into the 50s most locations, a welcome change for outdoor activities after our week of cooler values.
343 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 High pressure will settle over the Mid-South tonight. The pleasant autumn weather will continue into Saturday as the high remains over the region.
1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Ridge to the west continues to build east into the northern plains today with warmer temperatures aloft. Dry air in place with light winds will promote rapid cooling tonight across the region, with lows falling to near the freezing mark in favored lower spots. A warm day Saturday with a thermal and upper level ridge across the region.
the short term forecast remains dry through Saturday as we remain under the influence of a large 4 corner high pressure system that is keeping moisture and upper disturbances well to our north.
The cold front that moved through our area yesterday was moving east of the Appalachian Mountains this morning. An upper trough axis was located over east TN. A high pressure system was sitting across the plains, and will move in during the next 24 hours with crisp fall weather. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s for most areas, while clouds hold temps in the 50s for the Upper Cumberland. Dry high pressure will move in during the next 24 hours with mainly VFR, although CSV may have some episodes of MVFR cigs through 21Z.
542 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 Early morning RAP and satellite analysis show a large scale trough over the western US, with a closed center near the California/Oregon border. Ridging extends across the central US into the Northern Rockies, with SW flow over the intermountain West. WAA south of this feature should support highs in the 90s, while north highs may struggle to reach the low 80s (depending on cloud cover). Friday-Friday night: Large scale forcing increases with entrance region of jet ahead of large scale trough transitioning over our CWA. Biggest question is going to be low level moisture along/east of this trough and impact on instability. NAM currently shows ML CAPE around 1500 J/KG which could be sufficient for an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms considering the very high shear values ahead of trough (50kt+ effective shear values).
856 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
728 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low pressure along the coast of South Carolina slides slowly north along a front through Friday with high pressure shifting over the Southern Appalachians.
1002 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend. Late Friday, and Friday night, a mid-level trough will swing through New England, and push a frontal boundary south across the Upper Ohio Valley.
expect VFR conditions for the entirety of the TAF period as high pressure stays in place overhead.
1106 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Weak low pressure will anchor an unsettled weather pattern across the region into Friday. The low will dissipate late this week followed by high pressure building in from the north over the weekend. Temps will peak in the low to mid 80s though it could get a few degrees warmer in spots where sun breaks out. With so little changing to the pattern, we suspect clouds will be prevalent with low temps again in the lower 70s many areas. The longstanding mid and upper low will begin to weaken and be absorbed into the prevailing westerlies to the north on Friday.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that the upper ridge will shift east while the strong upper disturbance moves from the WRN to the CNTRL CONUS.
613 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Persistent upper-level ridge remains centered across the Red River Valley this morning with broad west-southwest flow prevailing over the Central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
Surface ridging remains in place over Central Alabama with very little clouds to note on visible satellite today.
Upper level ridge continues to impact the region, bringing dry conditions and clear skies. Temperatures have remained very consistent across the mid state with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the low to mid 60s. Today and Friday look to keep similar temperatures across the area, however for the weekend the upper level ridge axis will cross the MS River Valley and this may bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge lies over the Florida peninsula and the adjacent nearshore Atlantic and Gulf waters. Given the close proximity and weakness of the ridge, winds are mostly east at 5 to 10 knots Otherwise, our morning sounding reveals plenty of moisture (pwat 2. Despite limited moisture below 700 mb over the last couple of days, a good portion of the Lower Keys has received a spell of rainfall.
/issued 401 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper ridge remains center over TX with an upper trough/low extending down the West Coast.
955 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low Pressure remains off the Carolina coast while high pressure is centered over New England.
1021 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper ridge remains centered ovhd. 10 am temps once again nearly a carbon copy to yesterday with readings mainly in the lower to middle 80s. /issued 457 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper level pattern continues to maintain ridge axis over central Texas with cirrus spilling down through the Red River Valley and across the Ark-La-Tex. Expect these high clouds to be a bit more extensive today, but this will do very little to inhibit heating as temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon. A pattern shift is coming however as a deep upper trough now over the Pacific NW digs into the Intermountain West and the Rockies over the next 24-48 hours.
Beautiful start to the first day of fall! With high pressure and dry air settling over the region, there is barely a cloud in the sky this morning. Fall or not, highs will be summer-like and end up in the lower to middle 90s. Also lowered dew points a deg or two and they are expected to mix out into the lower 60s/upper 50s in most locations helping keep the heat index down. The persistent ridge over the area the past week will continue to be in control of the weather for the Tennessee Valley through the upcoming weekend.
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 This morning's sounding shows subsidence remains plentiful thanks to mid-level high pressure which is entrenched over the region. Carlaw /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ An upper level ridge will continue to provide quiet aviation weather across the area today. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ The first day of fall will be far from cool with afternoon highs reaching the lower and middle 90s. Dry air and subsidence underneath the upper ridge will keep precipitation chances very low today. Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight in response to a developing low pressure system across the west.
Surface analysis indicating broad low offshore the South Carolina coast (remnants of Julia) with a cold front trailing south to roughly an Ocala to Flagler Beach line. There was a mid/upper low which will continue to meander across the Carolinas today. Weak cold front will move to just south of waters before washing out today.
Upper low across the Carolina's will pull clouds into the northeast Tennessee mountains and parts of southwest Virginia today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 90 65 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 65 91 66 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 60 87 59 / 10 0 10 0.
601 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Upper level ridge will remain over West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. The upper level ridge will remain anchored over Texas resulting in dry weather and light south to southeast winds around 10 mph or less. Afternoon highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, dropping to around 70 for lows tomorrow morning.
Precipitation this morning is primarily concentrated over two areas: in the vicinity of a cold front stalled over northwest Utah, and in a broader area over central and eastern Utah on the front side of the jet. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the trough will also result in some gusty winds over southwest and west central Utah, where a wind advisory is in effect. The front over northwest Utah will get moving again late this afternoon/early this evening as the main trough enters the forecast area. The trough will move across the forecast area through Friday. Will need to consider winter weather highlights for the higher elevations of northern Utah with the afternoon forecast package. The passage of the storm system will also bring significantly cooler temperatures across the forecast area, particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the well advertised closed upper low circulating over southwest Oregon, with the attending trough extending down through western California. A 120kt jet streak was riding down on the back side of the upper low which will continue to dig the upper low/trough through Nevada and Utah. The upper low will become negatively tilted as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough, with a compensatory downstream mid/upper ridge across central/eastern ND through tonight. Some precipiation expected in western ND today and tonight, becoming more widespread Friday and shifting into central ND, as the upper low begins to eject out from Utah toward North Dakota. Mid/upper level ridging will keep central ND dry today with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures are being held cooler due to the cloud cover late this morning, but conditions should warm rapidly after the clouds burn off. The low level flow will increase from the Southeast this afternoon which will scour out the stratus over the Front Range by later this morning. This low level flow will result in a Denver Cyclone which may allow enough convergence to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms by later in the day. At 12z Friday morning, an upper trough and closed low is over Utah.
644 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to provide quiet aviation weather across the area today. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ The first day of fall will be far from cool with afternoon highs reaching the lower and middle 90s. Dry air and subsidence underneath the upper ridge will keep precipitation chances very low today. Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight in response to a developing low pressure system across the west.
1044 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 A little drier air has moved into the northern half of the area with weak troughing over the state. Light winds and seas with a weak trough in place across the area today. Ridging will build in from the north through the weekend.
/issued 234 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016/ A deep low pressure system is located near the Oregon/California border this morning. Over the next 48 hours, this low will slowly march into and through southern Idaho.
/issued 325 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper level high over Texas will start to feel the pinch of an approaching upper level low which should make its way to the Great Basin by 12Z Friday. a strengthening Pacific Coast ridge will evolve the morphology of the trough axis to be quite compressed from east to west. As we go into Friday morning, the Gulf of Mexico moisture starts to open up in response to decreasing surface pressure along the lee trough.
759 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
1150 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the Metroplex and ACT TAF sites through Friday with drier air and subsidence producing VFR conditions today. 50 This morning's sounding shows subsidence remains plentiful thanks to mid-level high pressure which is entrenched over the region. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ The first day of fall will be far from cool with afternoon highs reaching the lower and middle 90s. Dry air and subsidence underneath the upper ridge will keep precipitation chances very low today. Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight in response to a developing low pressure system across the west.
lower dewpoint air and slightly cooler temperatures on the back of a light northerly wind will begin to moderate into the afternoon as southerly flow returns.
A strong low pressure system moving north of the area will bring a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and gusty winds at times through Friday. Water vapor imagery shows a low pressure system and associated trough over the western states from the Pacific Northwest into southern California. A few showers and/or storms will approach the area from the west today as a cold front approaches, but are expected to fall apart with minimal impacts to the TAF sites this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible today into tonight mainly north of Tucson as a cold front moves across the area. Isolated showers mainly from Tucson east on Friday as the upper level trof pushes across the area. Cooler Friday with highs 6-10 degrees cooler for areas from Tucson east.
711 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area through Friday before dissipating. Weak high pressure will build in from the north late week.
High pres returns this weekend, with dry weather and bit warmer temperatures.
925 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to strengthen today allowing for the easterly steering flow over South Florida to increase to around 6 knots.
/issued 457 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper level pattern continues to maintain ridge axis over central Texas with cirrus spilling down through the Red River Valley and across the Ark-La-Tex. Expect these high clouds to be a bit more extensive today, but this will do very little to inhibit heating as temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon. A pattern shift is coming however as a deep upper trough now over the Pacific NW digs into the Intermountain West and the Rockies over the next 24-48 hours.
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 /06z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected tonight through Sunday, as upper level ridging and subsidence begin to assert themselves across the region.
Tonight and Sunday Currently monitoring a marginal severe weather threat over central WI, where partial clearing has occurred, CAPE has increased to 800-1000 j/kg, and a warm frontal boundary is situated nearby. Despite the passage of the upper trof overnight, a general decrease in shower activity is anticipated due to waning instability. Sunday Night Through Saturday Northeast Wisconsin will remain in a relatively cool pattern through the upcoming work week as a broad upper-level low pressure trough over the eastern half of North America slowly transitions east. A strong upper-level high pressure ridge will expand into the Midwest by the end of the week and temperatures will warm at that time. for 00Z TAF Issuance An upper low system with frontal system dropping south over the state will bring periods of showers and storms to the area this evening then diminish overnight.
1144 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. Otherwise, we will be under weak upper level flow with an amplifying upper level ridge to the west of the area. The aforementioned surface boundary pushing through this afternoon will have surface ridging push in behind it.
A cold front is currently pushing southeast across the area this afternoon, as an upper level trough is spreading across the region. Behind the front direr and slightly cooler air will spread into the region. An upper level ridge will build over the plains early in the week then over the region during the middle to end of the week. Highs by the end of the week are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with the upper level ridge over head. A cold front will continue to pass through the area this evening, with skies gradually clearing with time.
occurring along a slowly northward advancing warm front. Current regional radar mosaic shows warm frontal showers and isolated thunder advancing northward through west central and central PA. Increasing WAA pattern/southwest LLJ and anomalous H85 moisture influx of high PW air /+2SD/ will support widespread coverage of showers/storms lifting northeastward with warm front across central PA overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen to below 1000mb lifting northward across the lower Great Lakes into southern Ontario. To the south of a warm front advancing into NY and southern New England, guidance suggests a stronger early-day surge of moisture and forcing coincident with strengthening deep layer flow ahead of the approaching negative tilt trough.
A cold front is crossing the region. This system is forcing a cold front south across the Plains today, which is now making its way thru NE OK as I type. Highs will also be kept in check thru early this week as relatively cooler air remains in place with weak ridging at the surface. For the latter half of the week, the upper ridging out west now will slide east over the Plains, leading to an increasing trend in temps, while maintaining dry weather.
Drier air is moving into the area behind a cold front. A cold front is crossing the region. This system is forcing a cold front south across the Plains today, which is now making its way thru NE OK as I type. Highs will also be kept in check thru early this week as relatively cooler air remains in place with weak ridging at the surface. For the latter half of the week, the upper ridging out west now will slide east over the Plains, leading to an increasing trend in temps, while maintaining dry weather.
/issued 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ Water vapor reveals a minor trof axis dropping swd thru the northerly flow aloft while forecast soundings show there will be CAPEs around 1000 J/KG.
One batch is moving out of NE AL and into GA, while another is located in NW AL associated with a pre-frontal trough.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An upper ridge over the western states was responsible for the sunny and pleasant conditions today, but the upper flow will become more northerly tonight and allow a backdoor cold front to drop into the area. Things clear out sunday night as the upper trough to our east digs in a bit.