Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure has spilled southeast into the Ohio River Valley, bulging beneath a deep mid-upper level ridge anchored in the Western Caribbean. Water vapor imagery highlights the vast expanse of dry air associated with the ridge complex. The cooler waters bay and gulf side of the middle and upper Keys will increase just past 15 knots.
407 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Low pressure over eastern Canada will move east into the maritimes by tonight. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region by Sunday, before moving offshore Sunday night.
/issued 928 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ Abundant high clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this evening ahead of a developing low pressure system over South Texas. High pressure is centered over northeast Alabama this afternoon. This high will keep the region dry tonight.
It was mostly sunny and seasonably cool across the Mid-State this afternoon, as a high pressure area nosed in from the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures across the area at 3 pm ranged from the lower 50s along the Cumberland Plateau, to the middle 50s to near 60 degrees elsewhere. Satellite pics show high and mid clouds racing to get into Middle Tennessee from the southwest, ahead of an upper level low pressure area over the Desert Southwest. As closed upper low migrates across northern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend, Middle Tennessee will find itself in a moist isentropic pattern, with rain developing from the southwest Saturday and Saturday night. This also helps create the highest rain totals over those same areas.
Models were depicting good upper level divergence over our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough moving eastward through the northern Plains and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Although the forecast soundings indicate mainly rain with a relatively high freezing level, would not be surprised to see a brief period of light snow across northeast MO and west central IL with a dusting of snow accumulation possible on grassy areas.
At the same time, in the upper levels on Saturday, an upper low develops and digs into the Southwest U.
301 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Low pressure near detroit will slowly move off to the northeast through monday.
327 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Upper level ridging over the region will bring another warm and dry day across the CWA with highs in the 70s and mid 80s.
Low pressure over Northern Indiana and Lower Michigan will continue to slowly drift northeast today. high pressure over the plains states will build across Indiana. High pressure arriving across the area will dominate the weather for the first part of the work week.
112 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low will maintain shower chances through Sunday before high pressure begins to build overhead for the start of the work week. The semi-resident upper low continue to spin over western Ohio, although it seemingly finally has begun to wobble northeastward. Fries Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low moving into NY by evening. Ridging will begin to build eastward on Monday but with our region in the northwest flow between the ridge and the departing low, some widely scattered showers may be possible.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies with lows tonight in the low 50s.
406 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low will maintain shower chances through Sunday before high pressure begins to build overhead for the start of the work week. The semi-resident upper low continue to spin over northwestern Ohio, although it seemingly finally has begun to wobble northeastward. High pressure will then quickly fill in for the middle of the week with dry weather dominating and temperatures gradually warming.
the pesky upper low moved from LOU to near the the intersection of I 69/I 80 along the MI/IN border in about 24 hours. The upper level low will push from the Wolverine State to Toronto but clouds will be slow to scatter out with lots of llvl moisture. Clouds will become broken with some sunshine in the afternoon and we once again overachieve yesterday so have increased temps just a tad into the lower 70s. Sunday night should have lows in the low to mid 50s.
207 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 A slow moving upper level low continues to dominate our weather now through Monday with clouds and some showers, though much of time today will actually be dry. Drier conditions are expected to return by the middle of the week as high pressure takes control. Persistent upper level low will continue to dominate our weather to round out the weekend. Upper level low is finally budging from its position but will still be the primary driver of our weather as it slowly shifts east from the Central Great Lakes Today through our region Tonight. In effect, this is a TROWAL feature - trough of warm air aloft - and it has provided for waves of occasional showers.
The strong upper level low that remained nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley for the last couple days is beginning to drift northward, and will move over the Great Lakes region today. To the southwest of this feature, an upper trough axis will begin to develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley region by tomorrow afternoon. To the east of the upper trough, moisture will begin to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours, although the mid-levels still appear too dry to support any showers or storms over the majority of our area. 5" during the afternoon, and a weak surface front/trough over the central FL Peninsula will drift northward at this time.
Skies should begin to scatter out/clear by late morning as better mid- level ridging moves eastward and drier air aloft moves in.
Winds are moderate to occasionally fresh mainly from the east, with temperatures in the lower 80s along the island chain. A mid to upper level trough will remain aligned through the central Gulf of Mexico today, and become reinforced tonight through Monday.
Upper low currently along the Oregon coast will move to the Oregon Cascades late today, then due east across northern Nevada tonight, and then northeast from there Monday. Max temps today will be much like yesterday, but Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Light to moderate westerly winds will keep the air mixed Sunday night and low temps will be a little warmer than the current night.
The current northern IN upper low will finally pull away which will weaken the low level cyclonic flow and moisture transport with high pressure into IA by 12z.
Surface pressures will start to fall tonight over the high Plains as westerly flow aloft increases ahead of the significant height falls moving into the western US.
A weak mid-level vorticity maxima will continue to shift east-northeastward across the region overnight in the flow around larger upper cyclone moving slowly through the southern Great Lakes region. Scattered-broken mid and high-level cloud cover provided by this feature will offset nearly calm winds, with temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer tonight. Low temps should range from the lower 50s in southern TN and northeast AL, to the mid 50s elsewhere.
Quiet tonight and Sunday in advance of a potent upper level low. A lead impulse ahead of a closed low that moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday will bring scattered showers to central and eastern MT tonight.
Even though a cold front has pushed eastward through the area, enough instability remains that some scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible today through tonight. As the main closed low and upper-level trough energy sweeps through the Great Basin and takes a sharp turn toward the northeast, conditions will become favorable for more widespread rain showers and a few marginally severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.
Another low was along the coast this morning and will move southeast into southern Oregon and northern California as the associated cold front slowly pivots onshore then moves south later today and this evening for more areas of rain and continued cloudy conditions and cool temperatures.
603 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low will maintain shower chances through Sunday before high pressure begins to build overhead for the start of the work week. The semi-resident upper low continue to spin over northwestern Ohio, although it seemingly finally has begun to wobble northeastward. High pressure will then quickly fill in for the middle of the week with dry weather dominating and temperatures gradually warming.
243 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper low has now moved into srn MI while a weak upper disturbance was moving along the Gulf coast this mrng. An upper ridge will continue to build eastward during this period with less cloud cover across the CWA along with a slight warming trend. Aftn highs will mainly be in the low to mid 80s with mrng lows arnd 60.
with a drying NW flow aloft ensuing ahead of of the building upper level ridge extending from the Srn Plains NNE into Ontario.
331 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 High pressure will build over the eastern United States through Monday. The area will remain sandwiched between a broad upper ridge over the central and western Atlantic and closed upper low over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure will build from the northwest and then north while a stalled front lingers well offshore and tropical cyclone Matthew moves north from the Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas.
439 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Weak upper level ridging will be over eastern Colorado this morning, producing nearly clear skies. By early afternoon the upper ridge is expected to move over the eastern Colorado border, allowing the flow aloft to become more southwesterly. By Wed the flow aloft will become more wsw as a secondary upper level trough moves into the Great Basin. For Wed night into Thu there are some disagreements between the ECMWF and GFS as to how stg the secondary upper level trough will be as it moves across the area. The GFS solution would bring a good chc of pcpn to the area while the ECMWF would keep the best chc over the higher terrain.
356 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Fall weather continues across the region this morning as temps slowly fall towards the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will build southeast into the region and persist through mid-week. The low level boundary delineating 40s/50s dew points (west) to lower 70s dew points (east) continues to be nearly stationary through the Coastal Plain. Models do depict a weak wave tracking from the lower Miss Valley across western and northern NC Sun afternoon and night, bringing a shot of mid level clouds across the area.
304 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Weak low pressure will approach from the west today and will dissipate as it crosses the region overnight into Monday.
Expect increasing southwest winds and higher chances for showers and thundertorms today, ahead of a cold front due on Monday.
327 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Upper low which has been the weather story here in Middle TN the past couple of days is continuing its slow journey north and east as ridging to the west slowly pushes it out. Subtle disturbance in the broad troughing pattern will swing through during the day today but nothing is really expected in terms of precip. Cloud cover will decrease tomorrow and tomorrow night as ridging influences build into the area.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger behind a cold front that pushed through earlier this evening. A more vigorous upper level low will swing into the Great Basin Sunday after 18Z, sending several disturbances rippling into southwest Montana. A cold front will push though the area this evening bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to north central and southwest Montana. Showers will return to southwest Montana Sunday morning and spread north through the day as a large upper level low pressure slowly moves into the Pacific Northwest.
655 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Weak low pressure moves north along a stalled frontal system along the Mid Atlantic coast this morning. The trailing cold front moves off the coast this afternoon. Another weak cold front drops through the area tonight.
245 AM MST SUN OCT 2 2016 A low pressure system moving through the Great Basin today and tonight will bring a cold front through the Desert Southwest.
upper ridge axis over the area during the day slowly moving east overnight as low pressure and associated trough dives southeast toward northeast Nevada/northwest Utah. High temperatures today in the low 80s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 50s. upper low pressure center lifts northeast into north central Wyoming at the end of the day then into eastern Montana overnight.
The upper level low currently in the process of slowly lifting north- northeastward out of the Ohio River Valley will continue to move northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes at the beginning of the period.
341 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Weak ridging will lead to subsidence and dry conditions across the area today with temperatures rising above normal. The pattern then begins to change as an upper trough digs to our west giving us southwesterly flow aloft Monday.
An upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast tonight will swing southeast across southwest Oregon into northeast California Sunday. South flow on the east side of this upper low will keep most of the precip associated with this system west of the Cascade crest tonight. Also made a few adjustments to overnight low temps, mainly tweaked a few of cooler lows in central Oregon up 2-3 degrees as cloud cover will increase after midnight. As the upper low moves towards northeast California Sunday, will see clouds and showers wrap back across central Oregon.
Even warmer conditions continue to be on tap for Monday, as the southerly flow spreads eastward across the remainder of the forecast area and strengthens with the approach of upper level troughing.
An upper level ridge axis sits just west of the area in New Mexico, putting our area in dry northwest flow. The ridge axis will shift east into Texas by tonight. Overnight lows will also be slightly warmer for Monday morning.
242 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low will maintain shower chances through Sunday before high pressure begins to build overhead for the start of the work week. The semi-resident upper low continue to spin over western Ohio, although it seemingly finally has begun to wobble northeastward. High pressure will then quickly fill in for the middle of the week with dry weather dominating and temperatures gradually warming.
(Issued 243 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016) Upper low has now moved into srn MI while a weak upper disturbance was moving along the Gulf coast this mrng.
Calm winds and clearing skies have allowed temperatures to lower to near-freezing values this morning.
50 inches of rain beneath this band overnight, which is moving inland in advance of an upper low just offshore. 25 of an inch from the Warners and Winter Ridge westward to the Cascade foothills. The upper low will exit the area to the east tonight with just a brief break before another fast-moving disturbance moves in from the Pacific Monday morning.
The beginning of the work week will see height falls as a closed low moves across the north half of the western CONUS.
Ridging aloft is expected over South Central Texas as an upper level trough currently moving onshore the Pacific Northwest moves across the Great Basin later today to the Rockies on Monday. The surface ridging of the last few days weakens allowing for a slight increase in southeasterly lower level flow resulting in a warming and slight moistening trend.
419 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Considerably warmer this morning compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture slowly increases. At 850 mb, a weak high was located over central LA with a NW-SE oriented weak trough along matagorda Bay. At 300 mb, a deep upper level low was now located over NE IN and a broad upper level high had shifted into western Mexico.
Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs generally in the mid 80s. Upper troughing will begin to shift east of the area as upper ridging builds in on Monday. Afternoon highs will once again be a little warmer in the mid/upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.
/issued 341 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ Weak ridging will lead to subsidence and dry conditions across the area today with temperatures rising above normal. The pattern then begins to change as an upper trough digs to our west giving us southwesterly flow aloft Monday.
A return to more unsettled and cooler weather is forecast by mid to late week. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Area of low pressure continues to dig southward off the coast. This will allow a negatively tilted ridge of higher pressure to gradually build into the aviation area over the aviation area overnight and tomorrow.
High temperatures are fairly easy and should vary from the lower 70s east of I-29, to the lower 80s out near Chamberlain. Tonight will see mostly clear skies, except for clouds beginning to increase late, as a decent upper low approaches from the central Rockies. Southerly winds will increase in earnest on Monday as a large upper trough begins to eject through the Central and Northern Rockies.
A vigorous Pacific upper level low pressure system will cross Coos Bay, Oregon later today into the Great Basin tonight, then spin out across the Tetons Monday into eastern Montana Monday night.
16 Another beautiful day across the CWA! WV loop showing the persistent closed upper trough centered across northern IN/southern MI and migrating slowly north while a more potent trough is developing in the Pacific northwest and creating a downstream ridge across the Rockies. weak sfc ridging. Low temps will be slightly warmer than last night as CAA has finally subsided in the wake of last sfc frontal system. Temps will continue to rebound with highs in the lower 80s N to upper 80s S.
352 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper low now resides across southeastern Michigan on the western shores of Lake Erie. Slightly warmer air will continue to move in aloft with some of this mixing down this afternoon, but lingering cloud cover will once again keep temperatures below normal.
1237 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending southwest through southwest Minnesota into northeast Nebraska keeping winds down along and east of that line. The ridge axis will shift a bit farther east tomorrow with areas along and west of Interstate 29 likely seeing southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph. Good moisture return and isentropic lift across the western half of the region as the large upper low barrels east northeast on Monday night will allow showers and thunderstorms to become increasingly likely along and west of I-29 overnight.
An upper low near the Great Lakes region breaks down to an open wave while shifting into the extreme northeast states, and brings an associated trof axis which extends to the Sabine river valley likewise eastward to near the lower Mississippi river valley. Highs will be in the mid 80s with lows tonight ranging from the mid/upper 50s inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
Surface pressure gradient increases tonight as the upper ridge passes across the state. The stronger winds off the surface should keep lows in the low to mid 50s. The upper trough over the Rockies on Monday will move northeast with a negative tilt into Montana.
Medium The Mid/Upper level low will move across the Eastern Great Lakes as a ridge builds into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Wisconsin tonight. 700 mb RH begins to dry this afternoon with the 700 mb ridge over Wisconsin late tonight.
High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through Monday. Much warmer values are anticipated across the southern half of the CWFA with values nearing 90 degrees.
An associated U/L trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. An U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will shift east toward the central Atlantic with the ridge axis extending to north of the Bahamas. At the surface, broad cyclonic flow will develop over the Florida peninsula with high pressure over the southeast U.
132 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northeast Indiana and a ridge from the nrn plains to north of Lake Superior. At the surface, light northeast winds prevailed between a ridge over nrn Ontario and low pres over the s end of Lake Michigan. Otherwise, thicker mid clouds will keep min temps from the mid 40s to the lower 50s central and east. No precip expected Sun night into Tue as high pressure ridging is in control. Could see fog Sun night as ridge is overhead, then again Mon night (especially over the southeastern CWA) as SE flow increase. There is some concern that the low clouds and fog will return to KIWD late in the forecast with ridging building in but will leave mention of this out for now.
254 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 254 AM CDT Our upper low is finally beginning to shift east-northward, with water vapor imagery early this morning showing the center circulation now nearing KDTX (in southeastern lower MI). KJB 335 PM CDT The upper level low high tails it to the northeast allowing high pressure to build in Sunday night and Monday.
Overnight lows are on track with temps in the lower to mid 60s inland with lower 70s along the immediate coast. Concur with the GFS deterministic which predicts an upper disturbance to enter the western CONUS and contribute to the increasing of the upper ridge amplitude over the central CONUS/CWA during the period.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Stratus will continue to rotate around the southwestern side of a stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes region, but will begin to pull away to the east and dissipate this afternoon or this evening as the low begins to eject eastward. Have nudged high temperatures down a few degrees to better reflect yesterday's trends under the persistent stratus deck, but have raised highs to the west where skies are already clear and are unlikely to cloud back over as the low departs.
Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge over the plains with a trough approaching the coast. For tonight and Sunday dry weather will continue as the ridge persists over the plains. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday than today due to the increased warm air advection from the breezy low level jet mixing to the ground.
The upper level closed low continues to be the main synoptic feature in the short-term forecast. Current water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicates that the center of this low is now in Southern Michigan. Dry conditions will continue today with upper level heights increasing as the upper level closed low continues to lift slowly to the northeast. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer due to the higher heights aloft.
639 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Low pressure moves north of the region today with its associated frontal boundary moving off the coast this afternoon. A weak cold front drops through the area tonight.
The models indicate that mid level ridging will not truly enter our region from the west until Monday evening.
High pressure will build southeast into the region and persist through mid-week.
Some morning fog in the east once again has developed although for less of an area than past mornings as thin cirrus has helped keep temps warmer overnight. That cirrus is expected to slowly work its way to the east with a sunny day and light SE winds as 500mb ridge axis weakly bends to the east.
608 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Low pressure near detroit will slowly move off to the northeast through monday.
Forecast time-height sections/soundings indicate the low clouds should continue through today with only a slow rise in ceilings. Other primary issue will be the strong srly winds thanks to a tighter pressure gradient with low pressure passing the Plains as well as higher winds off the sfc mixing down. High pressure remains over the Atlantic and Northeast Gulf this morning while low pressure is moving across the Central Plains. This pattern will continue through today and into Sunday, and with just enough lift with the low pressure over the plains and the warm and moist flow, a few isolated showers will be possible away from the coast.