Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
252 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Upper level ridging overhead today will shift east of the region tonight followed quickly by a fast-moving and very low amplitude short wave trough and associated jet streak on Saturday. At the surface ridging has already moved east of the forecast area with a return to south/southeast low level flow having already occurred. The upper trough and jet streak may have enough mid level moisture to work on to result in some light precipitation, although models suggest instability will basically be non-existent. Increasing mid clouds during the morning ahead of the trough with some sprinkles and an outside shot at a hundredth of an inch or two are the current expectations.
At the same time, a short- wave trough at 500 mb in southwest to westerly flow aloft will move across the region, perhaps bringing enough lift for a few light showers generally south and west of a Mertzon to Coleman to Mason line Saturday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with lows tonight in the low to mid 40s and near seasonal high temperatures Saturday in the low to mid 60s.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the western half of the country with westerly flow over Texas.
High pressure will build into the area overnight, clearing skies and allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s. Upper level ridging will follow through the weekend, which will steadily warm temperatures and lead to dry weather. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as the high begins to work into the area. Expect temps to get down into the low to mid 20s across the area. The short term will be dry under the influence of surface and upper level high pressure through the weekend.
The ridge will advance across the region Saturday with winds trending more easterly. Mild afternoon temperatures are on tap today and SAT, with SAT morning the coldest of this forecast period as lows drop into the mid/upper 30s across Central LA and the lower 40s S of the I-10 corridor.
345 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 An upper level trough moving through the region has provided a damp, cloudy, cool, and windy day to all of eastern Kentucky with periods of rain and snow showers. Still seeing some good radar returns impacting the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky and with temperatures below freezing for locations at or above 2500 feet, snow accumulations will remain possible through this evening. However, this wave will not be a direct hit, so not expecting things to get out of hand, but may provide enough weak forcing for another inch or two for the highest elevations. A few locations could approach the upper teens, but will generally leave lows in the low to mid 20s for most areas. Ridge tops could stay closer to 30 overnight.
Mostly sunny skies and breezy south winds bringing in much warmer air today. Sub-freezing temperatures combined with the fog may lead to slick spots on area roadways, mainly across the James River Valley. Have gone closer to the HRRR for dewpoints, which have been on the low range, and verified better in the southwest. The period opens with some much above normal warm air in place over the CWA, while an upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to flatten/transition eastward.
Low temperatures will in the lower and mid-30s north of Interstate 94 and near 40 across the remainder of the area.
1028 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 The axis of the upper ridge is currently centered over the region and will continue moving eastward today. Warm advection under the ridge has forced temperatures to run well above normal and that will hold true today and tomorrow. The 700 mb temperatures might rise a few degrees compared to yesterday, so the highs were adjusted accordingly. High clouds are beginning to spill over the ridge and they span over most the western CONUS. Tomorrow a midlevel trough will come ashore the Pacific coast stretching from Oregon down to California. Ahead of this trough winds are expected to increase and advect moisture in from the west. In response to this the models are developing afternoon convection in the higher elevations.
Light north winds and clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to dip into the low 30s Saturday morning across the Mid-South. Sunny skies and warming temperatures will be the main story across the Mid- South through the weekend due to the presence of high pressure.
913 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Dig out your sunglasses and hold onto your hats today! Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in behind the cold front that is now well to our south. As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will keep northwesterly winds breezy. Sustained winds will be ~15kts with gusts ~25kts or higher especially in the higher terrain. Cloud cover on the backside of the low lifting into the Mid Atlantic will mainly brush our Southern Middle TN and NE AL locations, bringing sct to bkn skies. Temperatures are expected to reach freezing at most locations early Saturday morning, with the possible exception of locations near the larger lakes along the TN River.
1112 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Amplified upper level longwave ridge works across the upper mississippi river valley this weekend.
This will affect the high temperature forecast as well, with warmer highs to the south and east. The previously mentioned boundary will slowly sag into the highway 200 corridor Saturday night.
Reimer A couple of mild days ahead with mid level ridging taking hold. Heights fall Saturday night and this pushes a cold front into the area. Energy and moisture will combine for a chance of rain and snow showers, with the best chance being over the higher terrain.
An upper level low will clip the extreme Northeast Plateau today.
Should see gusts in excess of 40 mph, especially at the higher elevations by afternoon. The first part of the forecast remains fairly quiet with high pressure in control of the sensible weather.
Dig out your sunglasses and hold onto your hats today! Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in behind the cold front that is now well to our south. As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will keep northwesterly winds breezy. Sustained winds will be ~15kts with gusts ~25kts or higher especially in the higher terrain. Cloud cover on the backside of the low lifting into the Mid Atlantic will mainly brush our Southern Middle TN and NE AL locations, bringing sct to bkn skies. Temperatures are expected to reach freezing at most locations early Saturday morning, with the possible exception of locations near the larger lakes along the TN River.
1007 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Water vapor shows large ridge building through the western CONUS. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with lee trof advancing into eastern MT/WY. Dry and much warmer weather will be the story both today and Saturday, with main forecast concerns centered around fire weather (see fire weather discussion below). Lee trof will advance through much of the CWFA today, allowing temps to climb well into the 60s at most plains locations. Thermal ridge then peaks over the CWFA on Saturday, with plenty of highs in the 70s east/south of the Black Hills. Gusty southwest winds may continue into the night ahead of approaching cold front.
The trending will continue tonight, with the ridge center bisecting the FA by 06Z, and centering overtop the FA by 12Z. The high pushes east into the Tennessee River Valley Saturday, and return flow sets up gradually, particularly in our western counties, by afternoon. This may translate to some rh values in the low end 30s, and pockets of upper 20s, but winds will be less than 15 mph, to mitigate the heightening of the fire hazard due to lowering rh.
This will result in some isolated afternoon convection in the higher terrain of the San Juans, as well as the Uinta and Tavaputs ranges. Temperatures in the valleys will likely be the warmest of the year so far, with highs in the low 60s in Durango and Montrose, mid to upper 60s in the Grand Valley, and 70s in the lower canyon country of eastern Utah.
Ridging will slide east of the area tonight with stronger south winds developing on Saturday.
Not quite as cold for Saturday night but still at or below freezing for most areas.
High pressure builds in with a dry and stable airmass. /issued 709 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020/ The cold front is currently on the south side of the Tampa Bay region with a few light patches of rain in advance of it and low level cloudiness trailing in it's wake. with gradual clearing of the lower clouds. A secondary dry cold front traverses the state overnight with reinforcing cool and dry air. An exiting front and building high pressure will maintain robust to strong winds with a small craft advisory on the Gulf and a small craft exercise caution for bay and harbor waters. The high begins to slide east during the weekend with winds veering and diminishing.
The impressive upper level ridge remains over the region for Saturday along with the warm air mass.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with breezy and warmer conditions today, followed by cooler and wetter conditions overnight tonight into the weekend. A cold front will move slowly southward through the region on Saturday, bringing with it scattered rain and snow showers.
A very dry airmass is in place across our forecast area today underneath northwest flow aloft and with surface ridging building from the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley region. The dry northwest mid level flow pattern will persist through Saturday morning, before ridging aloft builds over our region by Saturday afternoon. Highs this afternoon look on track to range in the lower to mid 60s over most areas, except slightly cooler around 60 degrees to the lower 60s generally along and to the north of U. Lows tonight will be chilly in the lower to mid 30s over much of the interior, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s near the immediate coast and beaches.
Expect benign weather through the short term period (unless you suffer from seasonal allergies as breezy winds will continue to blow around pollen) as high pressure builds across eastern Texas today and then slides eastward on Saturday. With the high pressure shifting eastward tomorrow, the clockwise rotation around it will induce east to southeasterly flow over the region. Temperatures over the next 36 hours will be on the cooler side with temperatures tonight dropping down into the low to mid 40s across much of the region. Fowler On Saturday night, surface winds will become southeast as high pressure shifts east and low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies.
Cold front will come in Saturday with showers and cooling, and lowering snow levels.
1110 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 A cold front crossed the Florida Keys around 7-9 am this morning, and it continues southeast through the Straits of Florida. Northwest winds and cold advection should lead to steady or falling temperatures over the Lower and Middle Keys. Otherwise, pressure gradients will continue to tighten and winds will increase as a high pressure center makes its way from the Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley tonight. Northwest winds are rising in the wake of a cold front that passed the Florida Keys earlier this morning. In response, seas have already built to 5 feet at the Pulley Ridge buoy (42097) in the southeast Gulf, with further building expected.
235 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Strong high pressure has built into the mid sections of the CONUS allowing for drying conditions all the way into the deep south including the local area. The high will settle over the Tennessee Valley by tonight allowing for lowering wind speeds but still less than optimal radiational cooling conditions. Still, with the clear skies, have gone more with the cooler MAV/MET blend and lows below freezing for most all areas of North and Central GA. High will translate east on Saturday and upper level trough will be replaced by and approaching ridge.
This will drive what will happen with temps today; cooler if it stays thick, warmer if it disappears. TFJ Upper ridge will be over Montana today. Warm temperatures will continue in most areas on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through the area Saturday Night. Models are indicating that it will be a mix of sleet, snow, rain, and possibly freezing rain.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Overhead high clouds continue in the southwest flow aloft as a mid level ridge axis moves slowly east past the area. Plains high pressure also currently extends south into the area and will also slowly edge east. Winds will be light, shifting from northeast to southeast over the period as the center of high pressure moves from the Plains toward the Mid Atlantic coast.
254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 High pressure will bring a cool night across the forecast area and then fair weather into Saturday.
High pressure will move towards the state later this afternoon and overnight tonight. Today Through Saturday Night Dry air continues to filter into the state as NWRLY winds continue to bring cooler and drier air into the region. with high pressure to the NW of AR.
Another mild night is in store, with an even warmer night possibly creating more record high minimum temperatures.
128 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 A high pressure ridge over the region will keep the wx mild for another day. The next upper trough will come ashore the West Coast Saturday.
221 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Northwesterly winds have been breezy throughout the day due to the pressure gradient between a departing low lifting into the east coast and the incoming high pressure. High pressure will build in through the weekend and provide pleasant conditions.
Given how cold it is aloft and the low boundary layer dew points, expect more of the precip to be snow than current forecast so will adjust toward more snow as precip type, and will also add sprinkles/flurries further south. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 54 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 50 31 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 52 30 63 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 47 25 61 32 / 20 10 0 0 0 TN.
The models show a cold front approaching from the northwest through Saturday night with another night of mild overnight lows across the cwa in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
While sunshine was still observed today as mainly high clouds rolled overhead, the associated cold front from the next approaching storm was now moving into Northern California.
306 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2020 Precip chances return Saturday with accumulating snow and possible chain controls across the higher elevations. Increasing clouds over the region late this afternoon ahead of approaching trough just off the coast. Trough will quickly move east through NorCal Saturday, as upper ridge finally shifts east.
Sfc ridging over Ern OK/N TX into AR this evening will build E across the region overnight, with light NNE winds to start the 00Z TAF period becoming Lt/Vrb overnight. /Now through Saturday Night/ Very dry lower tropospheric conditions and northerly breezes today in the wake last night's cold front are leading to efficient boundary layer mixing and, therefore, temperatures warming into the pleasant mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow will feature a continued slow increase in high cirrus clouds, but in general, expect a fair amount of sun with southeast winds helping temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s. Tomorrow night will not be nearly so ideal for radiational cooling as southerly flow in the lower levels starts to pick up as high pressure departs farther to the east.
Aloft we have ridging over the Northland with strong southerly winds in the lower levels slowly filtering in from the west.
250 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 A broad upper ridge will remain over the region, leading to warm and dry weather again on Saturday. Gusty southwesterly winds may continue into Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/ High pressure will bring a cool night across the forecast area and then fair weather into Saturday.
Northwesterly winds have been breezy throughout the day due to the pressure gradient between a departing low lifting into the east coast and the incoming high pressure. High pressure will build in through the weekend and provide pleasant conditions.
940 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 The AVIATION section has been updated High pressure will build into the area overnight, clearing skies and allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s. Upper level ridging will follow through the weekend, which will steadily warm temperatures and lead to dry weather. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as the high begins to work into the area. Expect temps to get down into the low to mid 20s across the area. The short term will be dry under the influence of surface and upper level high pressure through the weekend.
/issued 256 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Overhead high clouds continue in the southwest flow aloft as a mid level ridge axis moves slowly east past the area. Plains high pressure also currently extends south into the area and will also slowly edge east. Winds will be light, shifting from northeast to southeast over the period as the center of high pressure moves from the Plains toward the Mid Atlantic coast.
729 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Chilly high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. Cold air aloft associated with the strong mid/upper trough will move over the region this afternoon. However, due to the drying in the lower levels with increasing temperature/dew point spreads, much of the showers will not reach the ground (virga). Lows tonight will fall into the lower to mid 30s. The airmass supports highs in the low-mid 50s and lows Saturday night in the mid-upr 20s, so cooler-than-normal in the wake of the departing trough.
Dry weather will continue into Saturday as high pressure continues to lean eastward through the day. Maples The period starts off quite nicely with an exceptional end to the weekend as the axis to an upper ridge translates east from the central plains.
These high clouds are associated with an upper low affecting the swrn U. The thermal ridge moves overhead Saturday night and this will contribute to the lows which will be close to record warm in some areas.
Winds a bit gusty over se WY Saturday afternoon as surface pressures fall over the high plains.
The main trough axis will drift east of Billings, so most of the area will be more in southwesterly flow. This will give way to cooler temperatures as a cold front moves into the area overnight.
217 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 A cold front will gradually work southeastward across the region tonight through late Saturday leading to unsettled showery weather.
With the dominant ridge holding strong, the overall weather pattern is rather stagnant. A trof in the lee of the Rockies will help compress the sfc pressure gradient, giving way to slightly stronger winds (primarily for the east and southeast) tomorrow afternoon.
Also expecting winds overnight to shift to the south and increase through Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures back into the Midwest this weekend. Strong high pressure centered over central IL tonight will bring light winds and clear skies. A few temperatures have already dropped below freezing. Clear skies will persist overnight and Saturday, as High pressure glides into the region.
608 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 The AVIATION section has been updated High pressure will build into the area overnight, clearing skies and allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s. Upper level ridging will follow through the weekend, which will steadily warm temperatures and lead to dry weather. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as the high begins to work into the area. Expect temps to get down into the low to mid 20s across the area. The short term will be dry under the influence of surface and upper level high pressure through the weekend.
Will update later on this evening to remove the higher wind gusts from our eastern zones. High pressure will continue building into Middle Tennessee tonight, with the ridge axis approaching mid state tomorrow and winds diminishing.
Models have an upper ridge moving eastward across Colorado overnight. The low level winds should be normal drainage patterns tonight, then some weak easterlies Saturday afternoon over the plains. 5 C warmer than this afternoon's readings.
Lee troughing over the High Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient over the Central Plains. Low-level moisture will be fairly limited due to high pressure over the Southeast preventing Gulf moisture from advecting northward.
950 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Chilly high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. The airmass supports highs in the low-mid 50s and lows Saturday night in the mid-upr 20s, so cooler-than-normal in the wake of the departing trough.
Also expecting winds overnight to shift to the south and increase through Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures back into the Midwest this weekend. Clear skies will persist overnight and Saturday, as High pressure glides into the region.
The only fly in the ointment to the forecast is a a band of high clouds trailing the H500-300 ridge axis, which may temper mixing slightly. The broad upper level ridge shifts east of the forecast area by Saturday evening ahead of a longwave trough digging into the western CONUS.
706 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Dry and breezy conditions are again in store for Saturday as a ridge of high pressure shifts east aloft.
/issued 128 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/ A high pressure ridge over the region will keep the wx mild for another day. The next upper trough will come ashore the West Coast Saturday.
A broad upper ridge will remain over the region, leading to warm and dry weather again on Saturday. Gusty southwesterly winds may continue into Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
651 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 A potent upper level low will move southeast from the Lower Great Lakes and help to rapidly intensify a surface area of low pressure a few hundred KM east of the Delmarva Peninsula late today. Little or no snow accumulation is expected today in the valleys with a slushy inch or two likely on the ridge tops to the east of the Susquehanna Valley and also across the Laurel Highlands. Cooler air will push into the region on a gusty northwest late today and tonight.
417 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 A broad upper ridge will remain over the region, leading to warm and dry weather again on Saturday. Gusty southwesterly winds may continue into Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cool upper level trough will move through the region over the weekend.
The ridge that we have been under today will shift off to the east and a fairly strong southwesterly low level jet will result in somewhat breezy conditions overspreading the CWA tonight and continuing on Saturday. We went with the 90th percentile guidance for the high tomorrow as we have been running a few degrees above guidance lately. The dew point will also increase to above freezing during the day which, combined with the well above average temperatures will accelerate the snow melt in the areas that still have a snow cover.
Tomorrow will be a different story as pressure gradient increases in response to lee troughing across the High Plains. The dewpoint forecast was lowered using some of the high res guidance/MOS to better represent the very dry airmass expected tomorrow afternoon.
616 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 A potent upper level low will move southeast from the Lower Great Lakes and help to rapidly intensify a surface area of low pressure a few hundred KM east of the Delmarva Peninsula late today. Little or no snow accumulation is expected today in the valleys with a slushy inch or two likely on the ridge tops to the east of the Susquehanna Valley and also across the Laurel Highlands. Cooler air will push into the region on a gusty northwest late today and tonight.
444 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Upper ridge will slowly translate eastward over the weekend.
Expect the nice weather to continue into this weekend as high pressure moves over the region.