Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, a cold front is expected to move thru the region Tuesday, w/a pre- frontal trough veering winds to the north early.
Filling upper low was sitting over southwest Idaho this afternoon while an upper high was forming over south central Canada. The upper ridge to the north builds into Montana tonight and Tuesday and provides a dry day. Some light showers are possible over the southwest mountains with energy and moisture wrapping around the upper low, then positioned over the desert southwest.
1124 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight. Warmer each day with high temperatures reaching back into the 70s towards the end of the work week. Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight, with upper level troffing remaining across northern areas. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. The chilly area of low pressure which brought wet and wintry weather at the beginning of the week will continue moving away to the northeast through the mid week period as the air modifies.
Warming trend will likely peak on Tuesday as light offshore winds in the hills as high pressure builds.
High pressure centered over Manitoba will slide southeast tonight with another clear and cool night in store.
604 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 Updated aviation section The low will bring the marine layer and near normal temperatures into Tuesday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts Tuesday afternoon.
At the surface, low pressure is centered over northeast NM/SE CO with a warm front extending from SW KS and into north central OK.
1114 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through this evening. Increasing moisture will head our way late tonight and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will drop out of the Gr Lakes.
Short wave trough making its move out of the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Mid South this evening generating some light sprinkles across Middle Tennessee. Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 62 78 / 30 40 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 78 59 71 / 30 50 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 56 77 58 70 / 30 50 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 72 56 69 / 50 70 50 50.
736 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A low pressure system will bring rain showers to the region tonight into Tuesday.
High pressure to our north has kept the lower levels of the atmosphere rather dry so some precipitation is having trouble making it to the ground, but this afternoon into the evening the lower troposphere should saturate all the way to the surface. Precipitation chances diminish from the northwest Tuesday night as the low moves off to the east.
The primary storm track is still well to our north (Ohio Valley and Great Lakes), but the typical summertime subtropical ridge is not exactly established yet either.
924 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 A high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather to the region on Tuesday.
Increasing clouds overnight with a lowering mid deck and even some stratus building in at around 5k feet as relatively warmer air spreads across the region. The mild air is moving into the region aloft in association with an upper level feature riding northeast out of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
902 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through this evening. Increasing moisture will head our way late tonight and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will drop out of the Gr Lakes.
A low pressure system will move south into the desert southwest by midweek. Relatively cooler temperatures will occur through mid week, with a chance of thunderstorms in the White Mountains.
Lowered the low temperatures tonight for the northern zones.
Canadian high pressure to settle southward across the Midwest and Great Lakes region Tue night and Wed returning dry weather with clouds decreasing over central IL tue night and in southeast IL on Wed. Cool lows Tue night in the low to mid 40s with mildest readings in southeast IL where clouds linger longer. Highs Wed mostly in the mid 60s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than normal for mid May. High pressure over the Great Lakes Thu continues dry weather on Thu with mostly sunny skies, and highs in upper 60s to near 70F.
100 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight.
928 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A low pressure system will bring rain showers to the region tonight into Tuesday.
508 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2016 Wet, dreary weather continues through the short term as an upper level low spinning over northern Nevada moves south into the Great Basin. However, this low will not track through the forecast area.
I continue to think that precipitation will be shutting down from west-east at a decent pace on Tuesday, especially by afternoon as the progressive short wave tracks quickly eastward and the impacts of a northern stream trof begin to be realized. The trailing short wave that will help drive the morning and early afternoon precipitation will be long by, and a northern stream upper trof moving into the Great Lakes/OH Valley region will continue to progress and shunt the baroclinic zone and forcing exceedingly further south.
Showers over the E half of the CWA will continue to sink S near the weak cold front through the late afternoon hours.
1003 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Moisture will increase overnight as a warm front lifts north across the area.
With the loss of heating, we expect the remainder of the showers to dwindle even further, and be constrained to the higher elevations of the east and south, after midnight MDT. At 2 PM MDT upper low was still over our CWA. Main showers and isolated thunderstorms were in the Boise Mountains, drifting westward, indicating the upper low center was in south- central Idaho.
Other issue is cold front timing and low clouds behind said front. /issued 327 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/ Elongated upper level low spinning over the Great Basin into Colorado is evident on WV imagery with an area of subsidence moving in to the the western part of the CWFA. As the MCS propagates southeastward, a cold front will push into the region overnight.
444 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 A high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather to the region on Tuesday.
In the wake of ending precip, still expect low level ridging to work across the area through sunrise, with a nice push of drying downstairs. Given the setup and tendency in recent days for lows to end up cooler than expected, have lowered numbers into central Wisconsin counties while also expanding at least some mention for patchy frost. The cold front continues to make good southward progress across the area and was along the Iowa/Minnesota border into southwest Wisconsin early this afternoon. A large area of high pressure builds in from Canada and then remains over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Southern locations will see the highest precipitation totals where up to an inch is forecast. Moisture is forecast to increase via southwest flow while the weak cold front will slowly progress southward driven by the upper weak trough.
A small/compact mid level low is located over NE Lake Superior with a mid-level trough extending into Upper Mi. With skies becoming clear to partly cloudy and with winds becoming light,continued to lean toward the lower side of guidance for mins tonight. Traditional cold spots could certainly drop into the upper 20s perhaps even mid 20s in a few spots interior west, but in general, expect mins in the low to mid 30s. Look for highs to reach in the upper 50s and lower 60s inland to the lower to mid 50s near the Great Lakes shores.
with a limited potential for strong winds primarily near and west of the highway 75 corridor.
Lows tonight lower 40s NW ranging to the lower 50s SE. With the lack of sunshine and 850 mb temperatures of only 4-5C, temperatures will struggle through the lower to mid 50s for most locations.
In the northern stream there is a ridge over Saskatchewan and Alberta with an upper low over the northern Great Lakes. In the southern stream there is a weakening upper low over northern Nevada/southern Idaho. Models indicate these showers will continue to dissipate this afternoon as synoptic scale subsidence continues to push southward as the northern upper ridge over Canada builds. Temperatures overnight will be cool, but should stay above freezing in most areas, with the exception of the higher elevations in the Black Hills, since models indicate 700 mb and 850 mb temperatures are all above freezing. On Tuesday the warming trend will begin as the northern stream area of upper level high pressure builds and the southern stream upper low weakens and gets pushes into southern California.
818 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure aloft will continue cool weather, a deep marine layer with abundant clouds, and patchy drizzle west of the mountains through Tuesday night.
1242 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight. Warmer each day with high temperatures reaching back into the 70s towards the end of the work week. Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight, with upper level troffing remaining across northern areas. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. The chilly area of low pressure which brought wet and wintry weather at the beginning of the week will continue moving away to the northeast through the mid week period as the air modifies.
735 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Aviation A cold front will drift south through lower Michigan tonight.
Min temps will be quite mild in the lower 70s. Water vapor imagery shows short wave trough over the western Gulf of Mexico advancing eastward toward FL. High pressure will continue to pull further into the western Atlc as winds veer more southeasterly. Tue will be OVC with winds turning southerly and a high coverage of SHRA/TSRA moving in from the west assocd with an upper level trough.
An area of low pressure will bring cooler temperatures along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of the area on Tuesday.
The low level jet will strengthen and the 925-850 MB flow will back resulting in the development of a more pronounced 925 to 850 MB front. A warm front to our southwest will approach the region later this evening.
541 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 A high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather to the region on Tuesday.
720 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Warm frontal action thickens and lowers the moist column overnight.
1022 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2016 Wet, dreary weather continues through the short term as an upper level low spinning over northern Nevada moves south into the Great Basin. However, this low will not track through the forecast area.
643 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure over south central Canada will shift into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight and Tuesday. A lake breeze will likely develop, so areas near Lake Superior will be a bit cooler than inland areas. Highs should range from the middle 50s to around 60 near Lake Superior, to the low to middle 60s inland.
Local radars show light rain across the western half of the cwa that is expected to continue shifting east northeast as a warm front continues north tonight. Latest surface observations placed the warm front near a Crossett, Arkansas to Jackson and to Hattiesburg, Mississippi line at 9pm. Mid 60s degree dew points were noted southwest of the warm front. The current forecast is on track and the only adjustment needed was to surface dew points in the wake of the warm front. VFR flight categories this evening may become MVFR flight categories after midnight as low stratus develops in the wake of a warm front that'll lift north overnight. As this occurs, a cold front will also begin to sag south into the Min-South and leave us between these two features.
1052 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through this evening. Increasing moisture will head our way late tonight and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will drop out of the Gr Lakes.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a surface cold front drifting south over central WI early this afternoon. Even though the surface cold front will be south of the forecast area early this evening. High pressure will be centered across the area.
712 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure will provide dry conditions through tonight. The upper ridge over the Great Lakes is progged to flatten and set up a surface boundary across the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile across the north, a weak cold front is expected to sag southward as the ridge flattens. Expect temperatures to be cooler than average tonight but much warmer than last night due to warm advection and increasing clouds. Moisture is forecast to increase via southwest flow while the weak cold front will slowly progress southward driven by the upper weak trough.
1010 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight.
725 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Moisture will increase overnight as a warm front lifts north across the area.
As the upper wave associated with the Great Lakes showers shifts off to our east Tuesday morning, we will see a gradual shift in the rain from north to south during the day with the highest POPs along the I-70 corridor. Canadian high pressure to settle southward across the Midwest and Great Lakes region Tue night and Wed returning dry weather with clouds decreasing over central IL tue night and in southeast IL on Wed. Cool lows Tue night in the low to mid 40s with mildest readings in southeast IL where clouds linger longer. Highs Wed mostly in the mid 60s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than normal for mid May. High pressure over the Great Lakes Thu continues dry weather on Thu with mostly sunny skies, and highs in upper 60s to near 70F.
ifr conditions are exected to develop behind a cold front passing the the state early tuesday. The highest potential for strong to severe storms will be with the storms coming out of the Panhandles into west central/southwest OK. A cold front will also move across the region tonight into Tuesday morning.
Weak short wave trough was moving across northern Mexico southwest of the Big Bend with scattered convection over northern Coahuila moving to the east. Models show the 85h theta-e ridge axis will be over the western Brush Country for tonight. East to northeast winds north of this low has brought lower clouds back into the Victoria Crossroads region.
A cool moist upper low will persist across the area through the first half of the week. A second and more energetic upper low will nose into the area late week.
A positively-tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes region is also providing additional ascent ahead of deep layer moisture advection from the south. Water vapor imagery currently depicts a deepening upper low settling across the western CONUS as of Monday afternoon. Cloud cover will then begin to thin out Tuesday night as the deepening trough over the southwest will create weak ridging over the Central Plains through the mid-week. Temperatures will slowly rise underneath this ridge through the late week.
717 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Chances of rain showers will increase tonight into Tuesday as a weak cold front drops southward into the region. Rain shower chances will diminish by Tuesday evening as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the northwest.
Cold front driven southeast around upper low centered over northern Minnesota had moved southeast of southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska just after midnight, taking showers and thunderstorms with it. Mid level jet will also draw cooler air aloft into our area over top of steep low level lapse rates near 10 C/km this afternoon.
This system is forcing a cold front south across the Plains today, which is now making its way thru NE OK as I type. Highs will also be kept in check thru early this week as relatively cooler air remains in place with weak ridging at the surface. For the latter half of the week, the upper ridging out west now will slide east over the Plains, leading to an increasing trend in temps, while maintaining dry weather.
The RAP shows all of the low level forcing moving east of the area by mid evening as the upper trough moves through area around 06Z.
An upper ridge over the western states was responsible for the sunny and pleasant conditions today, but the upper flow will become more northerly tonight and allow a backdoor cold front to drop into the area. Things clear out sunday night as the upper trough to our east digs in a bit.
Uncertainty in convective coverage for Sunday stems from the fact that the local area will be between systems - an approaching cold front to the north and a developing tropical low over the Gulf of Mexico.
232 PM MST SAT JUN 4 2016 Strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region through the weekend leading to very hot afternoon high temperatures with records expected in many lower desert locales through Sunday.
1119 AM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Upper trough/low is pushing east across nrn MN with strong ridging buildings across the western third of the CONUS. NW flow remains across the Dakotas on the ern edge of the ridge. With high pressure/ridging dominating the region. Not much change to the pattern is expected heading into Sunday as high pressure remains in control. Decent agreement with GFS/ECMWF with western CONUS ridge shifting into the plains for the middle/end of the coming week.
Tonight THROUGH Sunday As a large high pressure ridge builds over the western U. Breezy and dry conditions combined with the much warmer temperatures will bring down much of the remaining snow pack with elevated levels in rivers and streams. Sunday night THROUGH Saturday the high pressure ridge will remain the dominate weather maker over the area through the week with weak short wave troughs moving down the east side of the ridge across Wyoming keeping a threat of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Afternoon highs in the lower 80s are expected and temps will fall into the the upper 70s this evening. Showers and storms will diminish in coverage late tonight as surface cold front pushes in from the west. Overnight lows will cool into the lower-mid 60s. For Sunday and Sunday night, upper trough axis will be overhead during the day on Sunday and an additional round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/eve. Highs on Sunday should warm into the upper 70s and may touch the low 80s in a few places. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
A strong upper ridge will shift east and onshore surface flow will develop Sunday night.
A more favorable convective environment will develop due to easing of Atlantic high pressure combined with a veering to more sly component of deep layer winds to bring a better rain chc to the area Sunday afternoon.
/issued 1003 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ The pattern aloft this morning features a ridge over the southwest followed by two troughs: one near the Great Lakes and another cut off over eastern Texas. Another ridge resides over Florida, with a southwest to west flow aloft over the region. At the surface, the ridge axis is over the northern part of the peninsula, setting up a relatively light southeasterly wind flow that will allow the west coast sea breeze circulation to develop and make its way inland, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Winds will increase out of the south as a developing area of low pressure makes its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Latest WV loop and surface analysis depicts a surface and upper level low over northern Minnesota with a building upper ridge over the western U. As the upper trough continues to translate slowly east today, wrap around moisture and associated showers will linger over eastern portions of central ND. Farther west over central and western ND mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected.
Strong high pressure will lead to near record breaking temperatures through the weekend.
The upper low near Baudette will slowly propagate east through the period. although with upper level low further east showers should be limited to east of the valley.
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as an approaching upper trough begins to shift east. The best severe risk will lie to the east of the ridges, but a few more downpours will remain possible.
Under clouds and rain temperatures were in the low to mid 70s. across southeast Texas between Bridge City and near Deweyville. The upper trough will begin to weaken and begin to lose substantial energy by Sunday.
309 PM MST SAT JUN 4 2016 Strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region through the weekend leading to very hot afternoon high temperatures with records expected in many lower desert locales through Sunday.
Sunday is going to be an overall nice day with temperatures around the lower 80s, sunny skies, and light winds around 5 to 10 mph.
As mentioned by the previous shift, any upscale growth or thunder remains unlikely with very weak instability above the mixed layer and the low likelihood of much ice in the clouds. With the seasonally cool airmass in place and clearing skies, overnight lows will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 50s. With the low pressure system over the Great Lakes slowly exiting east, the tight pressure gradient will allow breezy northwest winds to return by late morning, however it will also allow the warmer temperatures aloft to mix down to the surface. Highs will improve into the lower to mid 80s. Sunday night should be mostly clear with lows in the 50s as a northwesterly breeze starts to bring in cooler air.
The main upper ridge over the region is shifting east as northern branch upper low continues to move east across the great lake states. The deepening upper low and associated trough will continue to merge with the southern branch upper level low over southern TX tonight/Sunday morning.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low in the Hill Country of Texas sinking slowly south. The upper low will weaken as it moves south into the Rio Grande Valley of deep South Texas.
206 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
The pesky upper level low that has brought scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the last several day should continue retreating south towards the Texas Gulf Coast through the weekend. another upper level system over the Northern Plains will help drive a cold front through the state later today and Sunday as it tracks towards the Great Lakes.
Upper ridge axis has become firmly established over Idaho and this has set up northwest flow across Montana.
The colder air aloft (and sharper lapse rates) appears to be hanging along and just behind the surface cold front over South Central Missouri/West Central Illinois at 1pm CDT. Adjusted temperatures/winds/dewpoints to also reflect the slower transition of the cold front across the WFO PAH forecast area.
158 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Water vapor reveals a minor trof axis dropping swd thru the northerly flow aloft while forecast soundings show there will be CAPEs around 1000 J/KG.
A broad ridge of high pressure was present from the desert southwest. East of the ridge a tandem of lows was present across Minnesota and a second over south Texas. High pressure was present over the western Caribbean. At the surface: Low pressure was located over central Wisconsin with a cold front extending south, then southwest form northwestern Illinois, through Missouri, and southwest to the Texas Panhandle. Clouds were abundant on the western periphery of the low, and extended as far west as northeastern Nebraska. Also favorable drainage light northwest winds will cause temperatures to fall into the lower 40s in portions of the Platte river valley.