Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface extends from the lower Ohio Valley through the Gulf Coast while a deep closed low spins near the SC/NC coast. Light winds and residual moisture in the lowest levels have resulted in patchy fog across south-central Kentucky, but this should quickly burn off soon after sunrise. For today, a very pleasant spring day is in store for the lower Ohio Valley as high pressure remains in control. In response, southerly flow will develop locally, helping to bring warmer temperatures into the area.
High pressure along the New England coast will dominate our weather through most of Wednesday.
Winds will increase again this morning, especially from Winslow eastward as a cold front moves across northern Arizona.
The parent low pressure system remains over the southeast United States and will north along the eastern seaboard of the United States over the coming days. Today will be a dry and somewhat cooler day across South Florida. Deep layered Atlantic high pressure will hang over the region into the weekend as the next frontal system emerges over the central United States. High pressure will build across the region for the coming days, allowing a lighter flow over the waters.
656 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Upper level low over the Carolinas will move to the mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley in the wake of this system. On Wednesday, weak high pressure will move east while low pressure and a cold front move into the western Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley.
With temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday -- generally around 80 degrees -- the added moisture will become a bit more noticeable. Latest surface map showing low pressure over north central Iowa, with a frontal boundary extending southwest to another low over the Oklahoma panhandle. As this southern low rides northeast today, the warm front will surge northward, and much of the rain will be on the northern flank. However, showers and thunderstorms will be developing along the trailing cold front this evening. Most models have the cold front moving into the western CWA during the afternoon hours, when 0-6km bulk shear is over 50 knots and MUCAPE's reach the 1500-2000 J/kg range.
Upper level northwest flow remains firmly in place over California as a ridge of high pressure resides over the eastern Pacific with a broad trough of low pressure over much of the central US.
Current temperatures are generally in the 30s in the mountains with 40s to lower 50s elsewhere - slightly cooler in most areas compared to 24 hours ago. Stronger ridging from the eastern Pacific builds over the area bringing a return of dry weather along with warmer temperatures as highs are expected to return to close to average for late April.
503 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 A weak cold front passed through the Florida Keys yesterday late afternoon and evening, followed by a short-lived period of fresh west to northwest breezes. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s. Tonight, a developing low-level ridge will move northward across the service area, with initially gentle moderate west breezes turning north or light and variable by midnight. Wednesday, weak low-level warm thermal advection will commence as a ridge moves farther northward and low-level winds attain a southerly component.
The low will be near the WI, IA, MN border around 12z Wed.
Ridging aloft will build into the area today from the west as the closed low to our east continues to move away. The ridge axis will be over the Appalachians on Wednesday, with a SW low level flow in the TN Valley. A deep trough over the Plains on Wednesday will be lifting NE and become negatively tilted as it tracks into the TN and OH Valley region.
Tonight will be cold with temperatures falling into the low 20s across western North Dakota.
Showers should wind down by mid day as the mid level ridge works towards the region. As the ridging spreads in the clouds should gradually thin and diminish through the day. The central CONUS will be under the influence of a trough, with several short waves to translate across the Mississippi Valley.
254 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 An upper level low over the Carolinas will continue to slowly pull away from the region overnight. Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
The local area will be dominated by weak ridging today as an upper level low continues to move east of the area and a new trough digs into the southern plains. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with highs ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the low to mid 80s inland.
340 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 The region will continue to be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, today through Wednesday.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast Wednesday as the upper-level trough axis finally shifts east of the area.
Some ridging continues to build into the region this afternoon. Where clouds have been less today, temperatures has warmed into the lower-middle 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s, though some of colder spots could drop into the upper 40s. Quiet, dry, and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday with highs warming into the 75 to 80 degree range.
For today and tomorrow, however, two beautiful and warm spring days are anticipated as H5 ridge builds over the Tennessee Valley, with highs in the upper 70s today and well into the 80s on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a sharp upper level trough will eject out of the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while taking on a negative tilt.
Thunder is decreasing with northward movement into cooler air aloft. With temperatures hovering around 40 and evaporative cooling with showers could see some flakes early this morning over the higher elevations of Sheridan county. As upper low moves into the northern plains surface gradients will tighten and winds will increase. Lows tonight will fall into the low 20s northwest with temperatures around 30 over most of western Nebraska. A brief dry spell comes midweek as weak high pressure builds into the region. Despite plentiful sunshine on Wednesday, increased northerly winds (gusts up to 30 mph) will result in cooler temperatures to continue to impact the region as well.
Tonight, another cool night with the lowest temps of the week as clear skies and light to calm winds allow temps to fall into the M50s to near 60 degrees.
Lingering moisture in the wake of a cold front will support broken to overcast cigs in the 040-050 foot range through 10Z as strato-cu clouds continue to advect in from the Gulf. A cold front is south of the forecast area, with breezy west to northwest winds continuing for the next few hours before lessening for the overnight period. Lows will be several degrees cooler than yesterday with dew points forecast to be almost 10 degrees lower.
As the ridging spreads in the clouds should gradually thin and diminish through the day.
303 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Weak ridging aloft and at the surface extends from the lower Ohio Valley through the Gulf Coast while a deep closed low spins near the SC/NC coast. Light winds and residual moisture in the lowest levels have resulted in patchy fog across south-central Kentucky, but this should quickly burn off soon after sunrise. For today, a very pleasant spring day is in store for the lower Ohio Valley as high pressure remains in control. In response, southerly flow will develop locally, helping to bring warmer temperatures into the area.
likely organizing into a linear MCS by late afternoon and through the evening hrs as the upper level trough axis approaches and becomes negatively tilted. organized storms will be seen as the increased forcing approaches from the approaching negatively tilted trough.
By early this afternoon a strong westerly jet will bring the next front to the coast with warm frontal rain this afternoon into the evening.
331 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low level moisture continues to surge north this morning ahead of upper trough digging south through the central/southern Rockies. A limited severe threat will persist overnight as the cold front moves into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by Wednesday morning.
535 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Light rain this morning will decrease through the day as East Coast low pressure pulls away.
1158 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017 The main concern with this forecast package is the timing of the cold front moving through Niobrara and Converse counties tomorrow. Tuesday night-Wednesday: Cooler temperatures are expected during this timeframe, but the bulk of the precipitation will shift south into the southern Rockies. This will be in response to the upper level trof moving east into the plains and weak upper level ridging building over the southwest.
A cold frontal boundary is expected to approach by early Wednesday, and will provide a pronounced focus for convection.
had dropped to the low 60s most locations, and winds generally SE 4-8 mph. A slow increase in winds can be expected toward morning, while temperatures drop to the low 50s. High pressure will keep conditions tranquil for another night, under mostly clear skies. The south winds will bring warmer air to the region, along with a warm surge at 850mb. That will keep overnight lows about 10 degrees warmer than last night, with lows bottoming out in the lower 50s. On Tuesday, low pressure advancing eastward across Oklahoma will be associated with a frontal boundary extending north into the western Great Lakes region. Showers and a few storms will be possible late Tuesday night in response to low pressure lifting NE from the southern Plains toward eastern Iowa.
Low pressure over southeast Colorado will work its way slowly northeast along the front tonight and Tuesday. Rain will gradually diminish and move southeast Tuesday night as the cold front works slowly south and east of the area with the better forcing also shifting to the south and northeast. Some lingering showers are possible yet on Wednesday as the main upper trough moves through the area with rain ending by Wednesday evening in the far southeast.
Unseasonably warm days are expected the next couple of days, as a deep upper trough moves across the Southern Plains well north of South Texas. This upper trough will do two things for us however. Frontal boundary pushes away from the region Wednesday night with temperatures a couple of degrees cooler across South Texas. Will refrain from using the word cooler.
WV imagery shows an upper trough over WY, w/a secondary trough over SE OR that is forecast to phase w/the first and move thru the Texas Panhandle by 12Z Wed. Unfortunately, a cold front will accompany the upper trough, and move thru Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 14Z.
High pressure is expected across the area through into early Wednesday.
Low pressure system over SC will lift ne to off the NC coast tonight. Temperatures today will warm back into the lower 80s but humidity will still on the low side with dewpoints in the 50s. Weak High Pressure ridge will set up over the region at the surface and aloft with a developing southerly steering flow.
356 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 High pressure across northern Maine this morning will move east into the Maritimes by this evening.
Colder temperatures expected due to the passage of a cold front.
418 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain showers developing across the North Country this afternoon and tonight.
A cold front is gradually making its way through the region, which will serve to shift winds to the northwest and eventually to the northeast this evening and tonight.
A low pressure system will cross the region today, before high pressure temporarily builds across the region tonight.
Winds will diminish during the evening ahead of a cold front.
331 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in periodic rain chances mainly east of I-79 early in the week. Dry and warm weather is expected with mid-week high pressure. Winds along/in the western lee of the ridges have remained mostly around or under 30 MPH. Upper level low pressure continues to spin up the Atlantic seaboard today. Easterly flow along the periphery of this system will continue to pump Atlantic moisture mainly into the ridges for most of the day, and as such have continued with the higher PoPs in the east. This support breaks down by midday, with the continued ridge focus thereafter. The upper low takes on more of a northeastward component this afternoon and tonight in response to increased ridging over the Ohio Valley.
Post frontal breezy winds and cooler temperatures are expected today.
420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain showers developing across the North Country this afternoon and tonight.
420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas today, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night.
208 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas through Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night.
On larger scale, water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show deep trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest with strong 120kt 300mb jet streak moving inland. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the upper 30s, more than 20 degrees cooler than normal. A broad trough of low pressure aloft will maintain much cooler than normal temperatures through most of the week and support a storm track generally south of our region.
614 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 High pressure across northern Maine this morning will move east into the Maritimes by this evening.
Upper low will move from southern GA northeastward to E NC by Tuesday morning. In anticipation of clouds breaking up this evening and overnight, with temperatures lower than expected today and tonight, lowered low temperatures by roughly 1-3 degrees areawide with readings in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure to build in later tonight and Tuesday with the cooler temperatures shortlived. Afternoon high temperatures will warm back into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday and possibly into the upper 80s on Wednesday.
Highs today are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s over the interior, with readings in the mid 70s to around 80 near the immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s to around 60 inland to the lower to mid 60s near the coast/beaches.
At the upper levels, a trough is deepening over the western CONUS, ejecting energy over the Central Plains. The WAA will help create sufficient instability across the entire area (1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and SBCAPE), but a moderate cap will be in place for most of the day until the cold front associated with the system enters MO/KS and breaks the cap this evening. The shear vectors are mostly parallel to the cold front; therefore, some discrete cells may develop initially but a linear system will be the dominate storm mode. Once the cold front moves through, the severe weather threat will diminish but post-frontal showers and a few non-severe storms will be likely, especially south and east of I-35.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast across northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska. At the surface, a low pressure trough had moved out into central and southwest Kansas today. A cold front will drop south across southwest and central Kansas behind the low and will be moving through the Medicine Lodge area by mid afternoon.
The 3-6Z window may be the best chance across the far eastern counties based on timing of the front, although rain chances and possibly some lingering thunder in the far east look to remain over the forecast overnight as lift continues ahead of the larger scale trof. Daytime highs today range from near 60 in the far northwest, although with the inverted trof developing over the CWA, not certain the far NW counties will make it out of the 50s today before the front pushes southeast. On Wednesday the main mid level trough will continue to gradually track over the northern plains. The associated cold front will already be east of the area, but the models are forecasting post frontal showers mainly in the morning. Frost is possible with in the lower to mid 30s and light wind especially in north central KS.
344 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure will move away from the area today while high pressure builds in.
Surface analysis this morning places a ridge of high pressure over portions of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Low pressure will develop and move northeast and into far southeastern Minnesota early Wednesday. The precipitation overnight likely a mix as a pretty good warm layer will exist at 850 mb while the lower levels will be colder and around the freezing mark.
On Tuesday, much cooler with rain showers likely east of Cody through Broken Bow. Cold air aloft will push southward Tuesday afternoon, with highs nudged colder due to influence of stratus from only the low to mid 40s north central to the mid 50s southwest. Some clearing late to allow lows to fall below freezing from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Broad upper trof over central CONUS expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Weak high pressure reaching into western North Dakota from central Canada will keep the eastern zones mostly dry.
Deep layered high pressure builds in on Friday, promoting a drier day with sunshine and summer-like warmth to kick off the weekend.
346 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise. Forcing for ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas.
The cooler temps have been slow to advect into S TX, but should help keep today's mx temps a tad cooler than yesterday's.
325 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2017 A warm moist southerly return flow will prevail through the weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens offshore the Southeast coast.
Today and tonight: Cooler and drier. Early morning surface analysis had a 993mb low over northern Illinois with the trailing cold front across the central portions of our CWA. The cold front will shift east of our CWA by sunrise and end the low chances of rain over east Mississippi. Despite decent insolation today, temperatures will top out cooler than normal at most locations. The cold front moving through our CWA this morning will stall near the Gulf coast this afternoon then return north as a warm front after midnight tonight. Model consensus has the warm front near the interstate 20 corridor by sunrise but rain chances look to hold off until during the day.
Showers and storms return this afternoon ahead of a cold front. A cold front associated with an occluding system will cross the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. Cold front and associated convection will quickly exit to the east this evening. Dry weather returns Friday with high pressure. Any cooler air behind today's front will be quickly ejected to the north as strong warm air advection takes over. Eastern ridge will try to build late Friday, but will be shunted by a series of upper level waves which will ride over the top of the rising heights.
425 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A potent upper level low pressure trough system will gradually traverse the Rockies today and tonight, with a belt of stiff mid and upper level winds crossing our area. Solutions also showing a weak cold front edging southward late into our northern fringes late in the afternoon, then southward during the evening passing much of the area by about 4 am Friday. The lower atmosphere certainly will be dry in advance of the front, and synoptic lift will only be able to saturate a narrow zone in the mid levels with precipitation efficiency very dubious.
638 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2017 A warm moist southerly return flow will prevail through the weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens offshore the Southeast coast.
The thermal trough will also build into the coastal area up to around Gold Beach. This will enhance offshore flow and breezy north to northeast winds at the upper slopes and ridges.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure resides across the Dakotas, with low pressure centered across central Wyoming. With high pressure over the central Dakotas, most of the precip should be confined to the Black Hills area and west. However, across southern Campbell County where the heaviest pcpn is forecast, 6 to 8 inches of snow is possible, especially across the higher elevations. The weekend looks mainly dry, but remaining cool, as large trof lingers over the region. Active northwest flow on the back side of the trough will bring several disturbances across the area, with daily chances for showers in most areas.
Showers and storms return this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Unsettled but warm weather through the weekend, A cold front associated with an occluding system will cross the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. Cold front and associated convection will quickly exit to the east this evening. Dry weather returns Friday with high pressure. Any cooler air behind today's front will be quickly ejected to the north as strong warm air advection takes over. Eastern ridge will try to build late Friday, but will be shunted by a series of upper level waves which will ride over the top of the rising heights.
Current temperatures are a little cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the mid 30s to mid 40s in the mountains with upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Weather systems will be deflected well to the north of the region over the next several days as ridging builds along the west coast.
Generally quiet weather is expected overnight as upper ridge gradually breaks down ahead of trough exiting the plains. In the upper levels a trough will be over the Central U. By Friday a ridge will build in from the south. By Thursday morning a weak cold front will be approaching the region bringing increased clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to upper 80s (due to varying cloud cover). On Friday southerly flow will return as the cold front dissipates or lifts to the north.
219 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Cold front crosses the region on Thursday. Weak warm front moves through this weekend.
Continued cold today and tonight but about 5 degrees warmer Friday. An upper level ridge will build into the region in the previous trough's wake.
309 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Cold front continues to push slowly eastward, and was roughly along a Lacon-Lincoln-Taylorville line at 2 am, with a low pressure area centered just south of Bloomington. The short-range models are in good agreement that much of this will lift of the forecast area by 7 am as the low tracks to Lake Michigan, with some lingering showers northwest of the Illinois River for a couple hours beyond that. Forecast soundings show skies remaining rather cloudy through the day, although some clearing should start moving in from the southwest during the afternoon as the low pulls away. Southern branch of the jet stream was focused along the southern tier of states this morning, but a developing upper low over Utah/Colorado on Friday will force this northward.