Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak upper level ridge will remain over the region through the period. Will see some high clouds spill over the ridge into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another reinforcing shot of high pressure will arrive this evening, with weak north to northeast winds expected through the night over the coastal plains. The high pressure ridge will move east Tuesday with a weak onshore flow forming by late Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Tuesday night. But a secondary surge of high pressure will move into the Gulf waters by early this evening.
With clear skies, radiational cooling is maximized, and temps have already dropped into the low to mid 20s across the usual cold spots. Tomorrow will bring a much warmer and windier day, in response to a northern stream storm system and lee troughing in the Plains.
While dewpoints currently are all well above freezing there, drier air will continue to move in overnight.
/Issued 210 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018/ Low pressure continues to churn off the Carolina coast while high pressure builds into the local area. Will also need to monitor the wind chills but as of now only very isolated pockets of the highest elevations to get to the 5 degree threshold for issuance.
As ridging influences sfc/aloft build into mid state region, even low level VFR ceilings should erode by 30/05Z, except CSV where MVFR ceilings should persist thru 30/16Z.
In addition, the GFS and NAM continue to hint at a few hour period where ice could be lost in the cloud, leading to freezing rain/drizzle chances instead of snow. Will leave some small freezing potential in the I-94 corridor north for now. With the northwest flow will come periodic ripples/troughs that could bring snow chances.
Freezing level was at 10,700 feet and the -20C level at 20,700 feet.
846 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Updates this evening have been for progression of clearing skies as high pressure moves toward the central IL area from the upper Midwest. High pressure advancing into the area will provide decreasing winds and mostly clear skies the last half of the night. The cold airmass will be slow to respond to the warming southerly flows, with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s, with areas near Jacksonville possibly reaching the upper 30s.
/issued 128 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ A large upper level trough centered across the Ohio Valley will continue to translate toward the east coast by Tuesday.
/issued 333 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ Reinforcing cold front this aftn will only knock back temps and dewpoints in current cool high pressure airmass, only a few more degrees. Overnight lows generally in upper 20s to lower 30s, although dewpoints into the teens for northern sections could see some cooler temps if wind manages to totally decouple before daybreak as high pressure center settles into Red River Valley by midday Tuesday.
636 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Cold front bringing windy conditions and scattered rain and snow showers to the area tonight. TRI is expected to have the lowest cigs as snow showers stick around there the longest.
528 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 High pressure was settling in underneath the inflection of an upper level trough to the east, and upper ridging to the west. The high pressure was associated with a Canadian airmass that capped afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Snow is mostly flurries with some probably accumulations over the highest terrain in the far west. Eastward push earlier but still fairly slow as we wait for the short wave to move through the bottom of the upper level trough. Upper trof producing some snow across the Great Lakes region this afternoon will deepen slightly as it approaches the NYPENN area tonight and Tuesday. Can't say for sure if this is a classic NORLUN trof (as they are rare here), but this trof may still be a catalyst for some local snow enhancement. As the system moves east tomorrow, best forcing rotates around the base of the trof and out to sea, the precipitation will wane fairly quickly before reaching much of the Catskills. Late at night, as ridging builds in surface and aloft, any residual flurries should end.
High pressure was located over eastern Kansas this afternoon with most sites reporting light and variable winds.
549 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, southwest winds will increase at the TAF sites and become gusty by mid to late Tuesday morning as a surface trof of low pressure strengthens over ern CO and ern NM. Latest water vapor imagery shows upper level ridge building into the southwest states with persistent broad cyclonic flow over the eastern CONUS. Model guidance indicates some breakdown of the ridge going into Tuesday as a trough digs in over the central and northern Rockies. Northwest winds aloft will gradually become more zonal over the Panhandles through Tuesday as the ridge dampens. This will support the development of a more robust lee trough with a strengthening pressure gradient across the Panhandles Tuesday through Tuesday night.
A large upper level low off the BC coast will drive a cold front across the forecast area tonight. Some rain will accompany the front but latest model trends are indicating a little less QPF across the lower elevations. Snow levels will lower substantially on Tuesday behind the cold front so some accumulating snow will be possible in the Blues before snow/snow showers taper off late in the day. It will be a bit breezy overnight and into Tuesday lower elevations and noticeably cooler in many areas compared to todays near record/ record warmth.
928 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 An upper level disturbance over the Lower Great Lakes and its associated cold front trailing into the Ohio Valley will swing across the region later tonight into Tuesday.
/issued 249 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Weak cold front has moved across much of West Central Texas today, producing light northeast winds. Winds will return to the south by morning, so hilltops will have better mixing and allow them to stay a few degrees warmer. Warmer on Tuesday with gusty southwest winds developing.
828 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 A 00Z surface analysis shows a ridge centered over the upper Mississippi Valley, but extending south all the way to the coast, with strong north-northwest flow across our local area. CAA in northerly flow between the ridge and the low will force temperatures down into the mid 30s from Dothan to Albany, increasing to the southeast to around 40 degrees in the southeast Big Bend.
Northerly flow down the peninsula will bring cooler and drier air to the area.
An area of high pressure over the eastern Dakotas will push eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection to develop over the region. While model soundings are showing the potential for low clouds with the WAA tonight, the low level moisture is not deep enough to warrant the mention of freezing drizzle or flurries. With a strong area of low pressure crossing the southern Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, our region will see a surge in warm temperatures. High temperatures should reach the mid 30s, in western Minnesota, to the lower 50s, along and west of the Missouri River.
This will allow for cooler temperatures across the area, although high temperatures will remain several degrees above seasonal normals. Overnight, winds will continue to remain weak with the highest gusts 20-30 MPH occurring across the mountains, definitely below advisory levels. As for low temperatures tonight, expect most areas to be noticeably cooler than last night/this morning as offshore winds are noticeably less widespread. However, the cloud cover overnight will temper those cooler temperatures somewhat.
This stable airmass is located on the back side of a deep upper trof that is moving east over the eastern conus, that shifts east over the western Atlantic by late Tue afternoon. Surface temps will be on the cool side tonight, or generally around 5 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s for most inland areas and the mid 30s to near 40 along the immediate coast, followed by cool temps on Tue, generally around 10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s for most areas along and north of Highway 84 and the lower to middle 50s further south stretching to the immediate coast. Clear skies overnight will help temperatures dip below seasonal normals with some interior counties seeing sub freezing temperatures.
The downslope flow will lead to max temps rebounding nicely for Tue, with max temps climbing back into middle 50s for most locations, and with the low 60s possible across central KS. With the increasing winds, and warmer temps, there will be some elevated grassland fire weather concerns for Tue afternoon. The first in a rapid succession of cold fronts, will drop south across the plains on Tue night or early Wed. Not alot of moisture as this front pushes south, with cooler air pushing south across the area on Wed. The next chance for any measurable precipitation looks to arrive late Sat night as the next, and much stronger, cold front surges S/SE across KS late Sat afternoon/evening. As the ridge axis translates away from the area, southerly winds will return from west to east becoming breezy on Tuesday.
Winds will turn more northerly and continue to usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and well above average temperatures through the coming week. For the remainder of today, a strong upper level ridge in place across the southwest United States will result in relatively light winds under thin cirrus cloud.
High pressure will slide across the area tonight, diminishing winds to almost calm in most locations. Winds will swing around to the south by Tuesday afternoon as the ridge slides off to the east. The ridge moves east during the day on Tuesday, with a return southerly flow kicking in quickly during the afternoon.
Clear skies will prevail tonight into Tuesday as the cooler airmass settles over the region. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s, with temps climbing into the 50s by Tuesday aftn. Area now under a dry north to northwest flow between a progressive mid-upper level trof over the eastern CONUS and an amplified ridge advancing into the plains.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through Tuesday even with the partly to mostly cloudy skies.
535 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tonight will be quiet as high pressure moves overhead which leads to temperatures falling to the single digits above and below zero across the region. A band of clouds will spread across the area which will be the leading edge of the warmer air. Tuesday night will see nearly steady or slowly rising temperatures as the warmer air continues to move northward across the region.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge off the west coast will keep dry conditions with above average temperatures and light winds for the upcoming week. The stratus deck over Lake Tahoe began to erode during the late morning and should dissipate through the rest of the day with increasing winds and a dry air mass at ridge level partially working its way down to the basin.
A drier and colder airmass will settle into the region overnight into Tuesday, as high pressure builds into the area.
Accumulation amounts before this quick moving system exits the mid state by 30/02Z(8 PM CST) could range from at most a dusting to up to an inch across the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau Region. The axis of the mid level trough that's swinging this moisture through the area should quickly move east and take any lingering flurries with it by midnight tonight.
943 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 The evening sfc analysis depicts sfc ridging extending from MO SW across Cntrl and Ern OK into N TX. The analysis also indicates a bit of a pressure gradient persisting across the region ahead of the ridge, but winds should gradually diminish after 06Z as the ridging begins to settle in. However, where the winds will stay up a bit (over portions of Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA), have bumped min temps up a tad to account for the mixing that will persist, as these areas remain a bit warmer than locales farther N.
The storm track will remain well to the north through the week resulting in dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures with highs in the lower 90s across the lower deserts.
Almost all of the precip has moved out of the area except for a few spotty showers arriving along the true cold front. The high moves east of the area during the day Thursday allowing for a gradual shift in winds back to the south. Highs on Thursday remain below normal in the low to mid 60s.
The strong cold front has pushed through Central AL overnight. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s for most of Central AL with the northern counties dropping below freezing.
Lafayette is a bit warmer at 64 over 64 and finally AEX is 56 over 49 degrees. As the ridge builds overhead. high pressure at sfc is slipping down into the central US. Afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than yesterday "mid 60s to near 70" and the winds will be brisk at times especially along the coastal counties and parishes.
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Mrng analysis shows the Atlc Ridge axis has dropped into the FL Straits in response to a frontal trof pushing thru the Deep South. Convective line over the central/wrn FL Panhandle assocd with a prefrontal trof is weak, disorganized, and pushing into an airmass with limited moisture: Mrng RAOB's measured PWat values btwn 0. Atlc ridge axis extending from Bermuda to the FL Straits will generate a light to gentle S/SW breeze thru midday.
1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A deepening 500-mb trough will continue to eject northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec today, with winds aloft across the TN Valley slowly veering to the west-northwest as this occurs. At the surface, a weakening ridge of high pressure will continue to build southeastward from the central Plains into the mid- MS Valley this afternoon, with gusty north-northwest winds expected to slowly subside by late afternoon. The high moves east of the area during the day Thursday allowing for a gradual shift in winds back to the south. Highs on Thursday remain below normal in the low to mid 60s.
819 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 SE wind in take hold at speeds of around 10 KT by late this morning and early afternoon, then diminish to nearly calm after sunset as a weak cold front sags into the region. /issued 318 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018/ High pressure is forecast to weaken as a cold front approaches South Florida. The front is associated with a low pressure system that is forecast to move from the Great Lakes region this morning, to the northeast, remaining north of New England.
/Issued 510 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018/ With the return of southerly flow at the surface, the Panhandles should see slightly warmer temperatures today than yesterday. The gentle northwest flow aloft today will begin to strengthen Thursday as ridging in the west strengthens. Lee side troughing also strengthens Thursday and continues the warming trend. A weak cold front looks to make it into the area Thursday afternoon.
A strong cold front is currently moving through Deep South Texas and will be through the RGV by mid morning. /issued 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A 996mb low is analyzed over the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front moving through South Texas early this morning. Behind the front, a 1030mb high will push cooler air into the region, with falling temperatures through the day. Temperatures this morning in the mid 70s will be the highs with afternoon temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Precipitation chances should decrease later this afternoon and evening, though models indicate coastal troughing and weak overrunning may keep at least isolated drizzle or showers in the forecast through Thursday.
For today and tonight the main moisture will be across our northern zones as a low-amplitude upper ridge passes through. Thursday will also be warmer with snow level rising to 7000 feet north to 8000 feet along the Nevada border.
At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge westward over the region as a cold front moves into the southeast. Made some tweaks to both PoP and Wx grids as well as the high temperature for today and will send an update out shortly. VFR conditions are expected to prevail into early tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible ahead of a weakening cold front tonight.
MSAS analyses depict the SWD progression of the cold front across the CWA/MSA early this morning. Cooler tonight with lows mainly in the 50s (cloud cover will limit radiational cooling. SCA conditions expected this morning over the entire MSA in response to the cold front.
With fresh snow, and the cool ridge of high pressure slowly exiting to our east, high temperatures will still be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Went on the low end of available guidance for our eastern counties. Otherwise, low pressure skimming southwestern South Dakota and Nebraska, may bring very light snow to portions of mainly western South Dakota late tonight. A surface cold front will be just north of the region Thursday morning. High pressure then begins to approach from the northwest.
Surface winds will be Northerly 10-15 knots today with higher gusts to near 16-22 knots until the late afternoon when speeds will decrease as the high build over the area.
825 AM MST Wed Apr 4 2018 The storm track will remain well to the north through the week resulting in dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures. Highs temperatures in the lower 90s will be common across the lower deserts.
Highs today may reach freezing for some locations that clear out and haven't received recent snowfall. Lows tonight should be "warmer" than recent nights, but still in the 10-15F range for most locations.
Winds will become southerly by tonight, with warmer overnight lows on Thursday. Next cold front will move across Kansas on Thursday, with gusty south winds and more clouds ahead of the boundary for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. To the south, a warm front will approach the Red River by Thursday evening, and this could be a focus of some elevated storms late Thursday night.
A ridge axis will stretch from Illinois northwestward across southeast and west central MN into eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Within the ridge axis we should see plenty of sun today, although there may be a period around midday where scattered to broken mid level clouds drift overhead. The ridge axis will remain in place tonight. With the deep snowpack being maintained by highs below freezing today, the decoupling winds, and mostly clear skies, temperatures will drop efficiently overnight.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today but still remain below-normal area wide. A strong cold front will swing through late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning with colder temperatures, and widespread snow expected through late week.
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure builds into the area today, but tight pressure gradient will make for gusty winds.
807 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 VFR conditions are expected to prevail into early tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible ahead of a weakening cold front tonight. Upper level ridging has shifted eastward extending northward from the Bahamas over Bermuda and into the Canadian Maritimes. An upper level low sits over the Great Lakes with associated weak troughing extending south through the Mississippi River Valley. On the surface, an area of low pressure sits over the eastern Great Lakes region with the associated frontal boundary extending south along the eastern seaboard.
Current observations indicating breezy westerly winds over the higher terrain, with lee troughing underway across the I-25 Corridor at this time. No big changes to current forecast, with lee troughing progged to deepen across the I-25 Corridor through the afternoon before lifting out across the far Southeast Plains this evening. This will lead to breezy westerly winds for areas over and near the higher terrain, especially the Southeast Mountains and immediate adjacent plains, where the dry downslope flow will lead to critical fire weather conditions late this morning through the early evening. Highs today warm back to at and slightly above seasonal levels in the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations, and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, with overnight lows mainly in the 20s and 30s areawide.
The relatively high April sun angle should help warm things up into the low 30s.
(Today and Tonight) Skies are mostly clear this morning across West Central Texas in the wake of the cold front that moved through yesterday. As of 3 AM, temperatures have dropped to the low 40s in the Big Country, upper 40s in the Concho Valley and Heartland, and upper 40s/low 50s in the Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country. Low dewpoints (in the high teens to low twenties) and clear skies are two factors that will help boost the radiational cooling that will occur as the morning continues. Expect a cool day with mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 60s in the Big Country, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Southerly winds tonight will start to bring some warmer air and higher dewpoints to the region (upper 30s/low 40s), with overnight lows in the upper 40s to 50 degrees.
Even though cloud cover will increase, warmer air will sneak in underneath and bump up highs about 5 degrees than those seen yesterday putting us right near climatological norms.
The upper low, however, is over the MN/WI border, keeping much of the Upper Midwest and into IL under cyclonic flow with cloudy skies. The movement of that upper low off to the west and the transition from cyclonic to a more northwesterly flow pattern will impact the southern extent of the cloud cover not only today, but into the overnight hours. only for more cloud cover drifting in from the upper low to the north moving into the Great Lakes. with a series of systems bringing cooler temps and a couple chances for precip. Behind the front, the flow across much of the CONUS has adjusted around the trough aloft, and setting up a predominantly weak northwesterly flow for a big chunk of the forecast at least through the weekend.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge axis extends into south Florida with a dissolving weak cold front dropping into south central Florida. Plenty of strengthening insolation with a light southeast wind becoming variable will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
Vigorous cold front and associated convection pushing into eastern Kentucky, giving way to anomalously cold Canadian high pressure. High pressure overhead will allow winds to decouple, and late afternoon clearing will mean a quick evening drop in temps. But it is important to note that several hours of sub-freezing temps can be expected throughout central Kentucky.
/ISSUED 504 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018/ Cooler/drier air is making its way into SE TX this morning in the wake of the overnight cold front and its associated storms. We will be seeing a series of cold fronts sweep across the area (some with rain, some without) through this forecast cycle. All of this appears to be courtesy of the persis- tent NW flow aloft as the weak ridging out west holds in place. The next cold front is progged for Fri night/Sat morning as scat- tered POPS return to the area. ) The next cold front is still progged for Mon and should be relatively dry, given the shorter return moisture timing. High pressure will quickly slide east turning winds east and then southeast tonight/Thursday.
An upper level trof was departing the forecast area at the start of this forecast period. Behind it, upper ridging was working into the area, which was coinciding with surface ridging. An upper level trof moves across the forecast area on Thursday. Embedded pieces of vorticity will accompany the trof and generate some light snow, from west to east through the day.
Ceilings will rise but winds will be in 15 to 25 KT range with possible higher gusts from the west northwest behind strong cold front.