Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
201 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Upper ridge will remain in place across Montana today with warm and dry weather. As the ridge axis moves east tonight and Saturday into the Dakotas will see some increasing smoke from western wildfires into the forecast areas. A Pacific trough will move inland across the Pacific NW today and into Montana on Saturday. This will bring a cold front across the region Saturday evening and night with showers and thunderstorms.
1145 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 High pressure dominating the Upper Mississippi Valley will gradually move southeast over the next few days bringing dry and cooler temperatures into the weekend. High pressure continues to build into Illinois. 12Z HRRR vertically integrated smoke plot shows this plume pushing south of our area on Friday, as the broad upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southward, bringing a temporary end to the hazy skies.
347 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Today and Tonight: Continued dry with cooler temperatures through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front just south of our CWA while a second dry reinforcing cold front was noted nearing our northwest most zones. This reinforcing cold front will move through our CWA today and bring a surge of cooler and even drier air that will help keep afternoon highs in the 80s. Under mostly clear skies and a light wind tonight, strong radiational cooling will allow morning lows to drop into the upper 50s along the Highway 82 corridor and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
VFR will generally prevail through the period at all TAF sites as high pressure builds in from the north. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 60 76 58 78 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 56 75 55 75 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 55 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 52 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 0.
With a trough in our region, an attendant cold front is trying to slowly crawl southward today. As the upper-level trough continues to propagate eastward, a favorable atmospheric environment should allow the axis to dig and become negatively tilted.
352 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 High pressure across the intermountain west will continue its slow progression eastward over the next couple of days.
A cold front has moved through the region and high pressure is building into the state. Tonight Through Saturday Night A dry cold front will continue to drift south through the state tonight allowing for nothing more than a stray shower or two. Cooler temperatures will be seen over the next few days with drier air to accompany.
222 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 The main story in the Near-Term and Short-Term forecast period will be the cooler and drier air. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a trough in the mid-levels just to the south and east of the Tennessee Valley. There is an inverted low- level trough that will be present across the area tonight. Temperatures will drop due to this low-level cool air advection. However, the inverted low-level trough across the area will lead to increased moisture in this layer. High temperatures are on the cool side on Saturday ranging from the low to mid 70s.
BRC Mild, dry, and sunny conditions are expected throughout the region Friday, thanks to an expansive area of high pressure across the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. This area of high pressure will maintain very stable atmospheric conditions that will eliminate the possibility for precipitation, and even most cloud cover. Meanwhile, a combination of persistent northeasterly winds and anomalously low temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere, generally 850 mb and lower, will result in a very mild afternoon and downright cool overnight lows.
A weak area of high pressure over the desert southwest will expand east across the southcentral U. The biggest uncertainty is the track of the tropical system as it becomes blocked by the high to the north, models show it wobbling across the western gulf in an erratic manner. An early exit to the east could bring warmer temps to the CWA while a westerly track could increase rain chances and give us cooler temperatures.
By Saturday morning, the trough will be passing through the Pacific Northwest with its axis taking on a negative tilt. Speaking of gusty winds, with the trough axis moving through the region and high pressure located over the southern Four Corners, the pressure gradient will tighten in response.
Increased southwest winds will bring gusty conditions over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada through this evening. The strongest winds are expected mainly over the ridgetops and Sierra Nevada crest, but may pose additional challenges to fighting the ongoing fires. Even cooler temperatures are in store this afternoon, as well as similar readings on Saturday, as the low pressure system passes over the Pacific Northwest. The southern end of the trough will pass over our region by tonight into Saturday.
By evening showers from a Pacific trough will develop from central Idaho and eventually moving north and east. On Saturday as the trough moves through our area, all locations are expected to receive rain.
Models showing a long wave trough across the eastern U. Near normal temperatures today and tonight will give way to cooler than normal temperatures Saturday behind the front.
With weak instability and left front quad jet dynamics expected with this trough/cold front, expect isolated lightning strikes embedded in the area of showers, which should produce much needed wetting rains in the west. With the associated cold front, clouds, and showers, high temperatures in western Wyoming could be as much as 20 to 25 degrees cooler Saturday than on Friday. East of the Divide, high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler.
Tonight into Saturday the 500mb flow transitions as a ridge axis begins to build into the area and with it model trajectories show the upper level smoke/haze spreading eastward into the region.
1209 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 A subtle cold front was moving southeast, marked by a line of towering cu and a wind shift into the northwest. The push of cooler and drier air behind the front is gradual. Daytime highs will be in the lower 70s on Saturday.
The front is currently over southern Arkansas and will continue to sink southward and dissipate as upper ridging anchored over the southwest conus contracts a bit, and troughing digs down into the mid south. High pressure will build in at the surface.
and Saturday A cold front was moving through east central WI early this morning, and bringing cloud cover, a brief increase in northeast winds, and even a few lake-enhanced rain showers. Expect mostly clear and cool conditions to prevail through Saturday, as Canadian high pressure resides over the forecast area. As the high starts to shift east on Saturday, developing south to southwest winds will result in a slight moderation in temperatures.
Dry conditions will continue throughout the period as weak ridging aloft shifts slowly east out of the Great Basin into the Central/Southern Rockies and the Western High Plains. Developing lee side troughing will strengthen in eastern Colorado Friday resulting in a more southerly flow across western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 80s(F). Prevailing quiet conditions will likely continue early into the weekend as weak ridging aloft moves east across the Central Plains Saturday.
340 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind a weakening cold front. A few upper 40s are possible in the cooler spots tonight and Saturday night. The GFS and Canadian keep the system in the Gulf while the ECMWF moves it into the Lower MS Valley which would bring some rainfall to at least parts of the area.
The upper trough and closed low will move over Washington and Oregon today, as upper ridging amplifies across the Central Rockies. The slightly cooler airmass to our east will keep eastern areas noticeably cooler from near 70 and the lower 70s, while far western areas reach the lower to mid 80s. For tonight and Saturday, the upper trough in the Pacific Northwest will advance eastward into MT and WY by late Saturday afternoon. Expecting some mid cloud development Friday night as a warm front lifts northeast. Much warmer Saturday from 85 to 90, with many highs near 90 across the west. The upper trough will begin to move into the area Saturday night, with just a slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the far northwest.
Satellite imagery that shows the "hot spots" regarding warmer surface fire temperature looks like it is has spread the last few hours. Low pressure system analyzed east northeast of Chadron in southwestern South Dakota this afternoon. Smoky conditions continue over much of the area as upper high pressure system remains over the Rockies. with smoke from western wildfires moving in on the northern periphery of this ridge.
Prefrontal trough has moved through the region with winds from the west to west northwest. A cold front is analyzed just north of the Tri-State region moving south. Highs will be in the lower 80s in the northern sections of the CWA to mid/upper 80s in the FLorida counties.
1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A band of stratus and fog drifted across the area this morning along a secondary cold front dropping through southern Missouri. A broad area of high pressure will be in control of the weather across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks through Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with highs Friday afternoon in the 70s.
405 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Overnight, with high pressure building in from the northwest and a dry airmass throughout the column, we've observed clear skies and temperatures across the region drop into the 20s inland and the 30s by the lakeshores. Some of the warmer spots have been Copper Harbor, Big Bay and Marquette, which so far have only fallen into the lower 40s. With 850mb temps hovering around -2C today, expecting highs to top out in the low-mid 50s.
For now have the highest cloud percentages along and south of I-94 for this morning and then scatter them out this afternoon.
1045 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Main forecast challenge continues to be localized elevated fire concerns as upper trough pushes through the area bringing gusty to windy conditions. cooler temperatures and higher humidities Friday. JHM Westerly flow from upper trough clearing smoke from a large part of the central Valley. Some returns also showing on radar as moisture getting pulled into this trough from old tropical system is moving across far southern portions of the forecast area. Upper trough will move into the area tonight. the main portion of the upper trough moves across the area.
Highs will reach the lower to middle 70s with morning lows in the 50s through Saturday.
333 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Mild, dry, and sunny conditions are expected throughout the region Friday, thanks to an expansive area of high pressure across the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. This area of high pressure will maintain very stable atmospheric conditions that will eliminate the possibility for precipitation, and even most cloud cover. Meanwhile, a combination of persistent northeasterly winds and anomalously low temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere, generally 850 mb and lower, will result in a very mild afternoon and downright cool overnight lows.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A dry cold front will slip south through the forecast area overnight into Friday. While this will result in a continuation of northerly flow across the region, slightly cooler drier air will now begin oozing into the forecast area in the front's wake. This will result in slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions setting up over the region as we round out the work week. With some clouds filtering through the forecast area during the period, low tonight will fall into the 60s and highs Friday afternoon will only warm into the low and middle 80s.
234 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Expect cool and dry weather in central Illinois the next few days as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region.
Cold front draped over central Indiana this afternoon will continue to push southward this evening and overnight. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s but a few isolated locations could drop into the upper 40s. Highs will be 10+ degrees cooler with afternoon highs upper 60s to right around 70 degrees. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep north to northeast winds pumping in the coolest air of the season so far this weekend. Expect lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s in our metro areas and the lower to mid 40s range in our cold spots. Saturday night may be cooler in the cold spots compared to Friday night, given lighter winds, which also may help with steam fog formation over area waterways.
This will help limit high temperatures to the low 70s in south central Kentucky and the upper 60s across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass.
322 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 High pressure starts to build in today with dry and cool weather occurring for several days. Upper level trough associated with remnants of Hurricane Sally will move off to the east and allow a nice clearing of clouds along with a lot of the moisture with it by this afternoon. High pressure will slide in from the west and promote fair weather and northerly flow which will provide some support for cooler temperatures. The low temperatures will allow potential for frost to form in spots for Randolph and Pocahontas counties late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Highs will struggle to get out of the 60s across the lowlands and remain in the 50s in the mountains.
(Today and tonight) Light winds and seasonal temperatures are expected today and tonight, as a ridge aloft and weak surface features dominate Oklahoma/north Texas weather.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter into Middle Tennessee this evening with dewpoints now down into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
1148 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 06Z TAF CYCLE Strong upper level high pressure drifting southeast over NM will lead to tranquil weather conditions for the next 24 hrs. Expect some warming with mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures through the weekend as high pressure moves south over the Land of Enchantment.
The arrival of a cold front will bring showers and westerly winds.
In the upper levels though we do have a stream of moisture with a longwave trough out of Eastern Canada that extends southward into Eastern Conus but flattens some. In the lower levels we have much drier air now in the wake of Sally. Most should not see much of any activity, but should notice cooler temperatures.
535 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Expect cool and dry weather in central Illinois the next few days as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region.
We continue to be in NW flow aloft with an upper ridge approaching from the west. Tonight into Saturday the 500mb flow transitions as a ridge axis begins to build into the area and with it model trajectories show the upper level smoke/haze spreading eastward into the region.
737 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Overnight, with high pressure building in from the northwest and a dry airmass throughout the column, we've observed clear skies and temperatures across the region drop into the 20s inland and the 30s by the lakeshores. Some of the warmer spots have been Copper Harbor, Big Bay and Marquette, which so far have only fallen into the lower 40s. With 850mb temps hovering around -2C today, expecting highs to top out in the low-mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Numerous showers/thunderstorms are anticipated for today as deep tropical moisture once again interacts with a positively-tilted 500 mb trough over the Lone Star State. Fortunately, and finally, the eastward shift of this mid-level feature, and 500 mb high pressure building in its wake, will lead to drier conditions tonight and especially on Saturday.
Water vapor imagery shows cut off low slowly approaching the Oregon coast with ridge extending over the Intermountain West. Also have an upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay region southward across eastern CONUS. For today and tonight these features will shift eastward, with the ridge axis over the Northern Plains by 12Z Saturday and the western cut off low coming inland. High temperatures today will be a little warmer ranging from the mid/upper 70s west to upper 60s southeast. Global models are in decent agreement with negatively tilted upper level trough moving across Montana Saturday and Saturday night.
415 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Water vapor imagery shows cut off low slowly approaching the Oregon coast with ridge extending over the Intermountain West. Also have an upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay region southward across eastern CONUS. For today and tonight these features will shift eastward, with the ridge axis over the Northern Plains by 12Z Saturday and the western cut off low coming inland. High temperatures today will be a little warmer ranging from the mid/upper 70s west to upper 60s southeast. Global models are in decent agreement with negatively tilted upper level trough moving across Montana Saturday and Saturday night.
959 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Dry air continues to filter into the Mid-South behind a weak cold front this morning. /issued 340 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind a weakening cold front. A few upper 40s are possible in the cooler spots tonight and Saturday night. The GFS and Canadian keep the system in the Gulf while the ECMWF moves it into the Lower MS Valley which would bring some rainfall to at least parts of the area.
Weak surface frontal trough north of I-4 this morning will be forced (slowly) further south into the central peninsula by late day, and then near the Lake Okeechobee region by sunrise Sat morning. Warmer temperatures aloft and poor support at the middle/upper levels will only provide scattered shower and isolated lightning storm chances during the day; generally south of I-4.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Continued dry with cooler temperatures through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front just south of our CWA while a second dry reinforcing cold front was noted nearing our northwest most zones. This reinforcing cold front will move through our CWA today and bring a surge of cooler and even drier air that will help keep afternoon highs in the 80s. Under mostly clear skies and a light wind tonight, strong radiational cooling will allow morning lows to drop into the upper 50s along the Highway 82 corridor and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
A weak area of high pressure over the desert southwest will expand east across the U. The biggest uncertainty is the track of the tropical system as it becomes blocked by the high to the north, models show it wobbling across the western gulf in an erratic manner. An early exit to the east could bring warmer temps to the CWA while a westerly track could increase rain chances and give us cooler temperatures.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An upper-level trough will influence one more day of near to below average temperatures across the area today, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Smoke aloft should persist Saturday, as a high-amplitude upper-level ridge shifts east across the Northern Plains. Southeasterly breezes will again be on the increase, perhaps gusting to around 30 mph (above most guidance) as incoming low pressure tightens the pressure gradient. High temperatures Saturday will be a good 10 degrees warmer than Friday across the board.
The main story in the Near-Term and Short-Term forecast period will be the cooler and drier air. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a trough in the mid-levels just to the south and east of the Tennessee Valley. There is an inverted low- level trough that will be present across the area tonight. Temperatures will drop due to this low-level cool air advection. However, the inverted low-level trough across the area will lead to increased moisture in this layer. High temperatures are on the cool side on Saturday ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Dry weather will continue though the upcoming seven day as the region remains under the influence of strong high pressure. Surface analysis this morning shows strong high pressure in place across the western Great Lakes. Aloft water vapor showed strong ridging in place across the Western United States with a moderate trough in place across Appalachia.
Not much of a change in pattern is seen with both surface and upper- level ridging keeping nearly calm winds overnight. A closed low currently off the Pacific coast is progged to weaken into an open wave as it translates into the Northern Plains, keeping the best lift well north of us in the Upper Midwest. As this moves east and lee troughing at the surface deepens further, winds increase for the weekend and bring breezier conditions towards central KS. The next best chance of precip in the period is mid to late week as another upper trough passes through the central US, but even this is a low enough chance to preclude any mention in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, temperatures stay fairly consistent warming back to the low 80s for the daytime with overnight lows in the 50s.
339 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Light southwesterly flow aloft will move in over eastern Utah and western Colorado today as an area of low pressure approaches the Pacific coast. Thus, temperatures will run 5-10 degrees warmer overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary will bring an increase in mid and upper-level moisture, with clouds and showers possible in the higher terrain of northeast Utah, as well as the mountains of western Colorado. A closer proximity to the main low pressure system along with favorable upslope flow could result in a tenth or two, as shown in the most bullish GFS guidance. Precipitation is unlikely in the lower valleys of the western slope for this event, except perhaps a few showers along the US-40 corridor in northwest Colorado.
/Issued 238 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ Drier low-level air (dewpoints in the 50s) is currently working into northeast OK, and strengthening surface ridging conditions will ensure a dry and pleasant weekend. Expect highs today generally around 80/lower 80s with slightly cooler afternoon highs for the weekend.
/issued 340 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind a weakening cold front. A few upper 40s are possible in the cooler spots tonight and Saturday night. The GFS and Canadian keep the system in the Gulf while the ECMWF moves it into the Lower MS Valley which would bring some rainfall to at least parts of the area.
A low pressure system passing north of the area today and Saturday will result in breezy conditions across much of the region with the strongest winds expected today from gusts 25 to 35 mph.
Upper level ridging will begin expanding into the area today and tonight as the area of weak low pressure aloft moves east and dissipates.
615 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 (Today and tonight) Light winds and seasonal temperatures are expected today and tonight, as a ridge aloft and weak surface features dominate Oklahoma/north Texas weather.
637 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Light southwesterly flow aloft will move in over eastern Utah and western Colorado today as an area of low pressure approaches the Pacific coast. Thus, temperatures will run 5-10 degrees warmer overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary will bring an increase in mid and upper-level moisture, with clouds and showers possible in the higher terrain of northeast Utah, as well as the mountains of western Colorado. A closer proximity to the main low pressure system along with favorable upslope flow could result in a tenth or two, as shown in the most bullish GFS guidance. Precipitation is unlikely in the lower valleys of the western slope for this event, except perhaps a few showers along the US-40 corridor in northwest Colorado.
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 High pressure across the intermountain west will continue its slow progression eastward over the next couple of days.