Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1053 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms today, especially this evening.
418 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hot and humid conditions with spotty thunderstorms will persist until a weak cold front moves through the region Friday, bringing a greater chance for storms.
Morning satellite shows clear skies for much of the Basin with cloud shield associated with approaching trough beginning to move across the Cascades into the Kittitas Valley with light showers in the west Cascades. Today, trough/front passage will allow for the chance of a few isolated storms from the Blue Mtns eastward as heights lower, more moist southwest flow increases through the column, and instability builds with good diurnal heating. RHs may cross below 15% in isolated areas of the lower Basin and high Oregon desert.
306 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over New Mexico and build across Texas through tomorrow. The low levels will be fairly moist again tomorrow, with afternoon dewpoints again in the mid and upper 60s for much of the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also be a little stronger tomorrow, resulting in slightly higher temperatures, with highs 99 to 106.
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Generally drier and warmer conditions are expected until late tonight, though a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over portions of the southwest through this evening.
224 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Low amplitude ridge and quiet weather exists over the region today. Stronger Pacific trof will move thru the area on Friday. Cold front will arrive in our west early in the morning, reaching Billings around 15Z, and with the fropa will come breezy NW winds and some mainly light showers. Evolution of this trof has slowed a bit, leaving a bit more time for more moistening/destabilizing of the air mass in our east.
NE low level flow is keeping drier air across our NE zones of NE TN and SW VA while Td rise into the low to mid 70s across our southern and western counties. Expect diurnal convection once again this afternoon with convection initiating along the higher terrain of the plateau and mountains across SE TN during the next hour. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 71 91 70 / 20 70 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 91 71 88 68 / 10 70 50 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 89 67 / 10 70 50 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 68 84 65 / 10 70 60 50 20.
As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to edge east this weekend, another MCS is likely to form across the northern plains before dropping southeast late Friday night into far northeast Kansas and Missouri.
No signficant change to the synoptic scale pattern during the period as an upper level high pressure system centered over New Mexico and extending to over the CWA/MSA, is expected to remain quasi-stationary.
Broad high pressure over the southwest US will keep conditions generally dry and warm for most areas in East Idaho throughout the period.
247 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 High pressure is in place over the Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure just off of the Carolinas coast lifts NE over the Gulf Stream. That area of low pressure has a 90 percent chance of tropical development over the next 2 days as it continue to lift away from the area and dig a trough of low pressure down over the state at the surface and aloft into the weekend.
Clear skies through much of today with temperatures expected to hit around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The cold front can be seen on satellite at this time draping across Washington and into western Oregon.
Meanwhile, a low pressure center is over the Texas panhandle with this the residual MCS outflow boundary extending southeast across Oklahoma. Not much to see in the extended with upper ridging dominating the weather pattern.
204 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 The upper ridge responsible for bringing the hot wx to the region was centered over NM this morning.
So far, no strong updrafts in this region yet but several low topped cells have been displaying weak mesocyclones in the 5-10kft range though much of this area is more primed for vortex stretching and landspout potential with good 0-3km CAPE values near 200 m2/s2. That said, with the aforementioned weak mesocyclones and increasing southerly winds ahead of the boundary, surface vorticity certainly may enhance further.
given the ridging overhead and approaching dry air aloft per water vapor imagery, increased POPs slightly but not enough to warrant including a precip mention in the grids/zones at this time. Dry high pressure now in place with sharply lower moisture will result in no shower or thunderstorm activity. The combination of the two will allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s today and into the low to mid 90s tomorrow and upper 90s over the weekend.
Regional 88Ds are very quiet with good ridging aloft. various high res models continue to advertise spotty showers across our nrn zones by late afternoon, but confidence is low given the ridging and thus will not insert any precip mention at KAEX at this time. given the ridging overhead and approaching dry air aloft per water vapor imagery, increased POPs slightly but not enough to warrant including a precip mention in the grids/zones at this time. Dry high pressure now in place with sharply lower moisture will result in no shower or thunderstorm activity. The combination of the two will allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s today and into the low to mid 90s tomorrow and upper 90s over the weekend.
Tonight, a low amplitude ridge will slide over the Northern Plains as a deepening trough crosses into the Pacific Northwest. Ongoing southerly low level flow in the southwest should bring surface dew points into the low to mid 60s.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. Hot and humid weather will persist again today under persistent ridging. This ridging is expected to weaken across western portions of the forecast area with the encroachment of a Midwest longwave trough. Isolated convection is expected elsewhere, including the eastern ridges, along the lake breeze north of I-80, and along lingering outflow boundaries from yesterday's convection. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precipitation probabilities on Friday in continued warmth and humidity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon, becoming widespread Friday evening as the trough axis treks across the region.
Temperatures will be a touch cooler east of the Mississippi River, but still topping out around 90.
The morning low clouds rolled back to the immediate coast with a majority of the low clouds from Monterey Bay southward. The big weather impact to the region, and moreso to the state, will be the building high pressure and resulting warm up. For about a week now models have shown a very impressive high pressure locking in over the Four Corners and nudging into CA. So what does this mean for the Bay Area? The ridge of high pressure will build slowly NW into the Bay Area, which will turn the temperature dial upward each day.
Peak winds aloft are mixing with cold front moving east, supported by increased daytime heating. Southern edge of stratocu on south side of the upper low moving east into west central Manitoba is down to about Hwy 2 Rugby to Minot to Williston and 06z NAM indicates pretty high 850 mb moisture spreading east today along and north of Hwy 2. Upper low will move east into the Interlake region in Manitoba north of Winnipeg this afternoon.
Low pressure will track up the east coast as a cold front approaches from the west on Friday. The atmosphere is a little more capped today with ridging dominant over much of the area with less of a triggering mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front, supported by an upper low dropping through the Great Lakes, will affect western NY and the far border of our area on Friday night.
1107 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Extremely dry and hot weather will continue over eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term forecast period as a potent ridge of high pressure remains in control. However, wind speeds of 25 mph or greater will only be briefly reached and will favor the higher terrain. Highs on Friday will tick upward by 2-3 degrees as h5 heights associated with the large dome of high pressure continue to rise.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will bring dry weather, generally light winds and above normal temperatures to the district during the next 7 days. Temperatures are running a bit warmer than at this time yesterday.
1114 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An upper ridge will build over the area from the west this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the eastern parts of the forecast area with low pressure developing thethe east of the Rockies. The high dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing during the afternoon.
Model and ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a highly anomalous upper level ridge will build over the southwestern and CONUS this weekend. The upper level subsidence downstream of this anomalous ridge will contribute to 850 hPa temperatures anomalies over the Lower Mississippi River Valley in excess of +4 sigma through much of the weekend.
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 A cold front has pushed east of our CWA, while a mid-upper level trough passes to our our east associated with a deeper upper low in Canada. This matches expected model trends, and we should eventually have light winds this evening/overnight with high pressure building east. Friday-Friday night: Another trough will move west to east across the Northern Plains with period of high falls/positive vorticity advection moving into our CWA Friday evening/Friday night.
309 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low into the southwest corner of Manitoba resulting wsw flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. Although confidence is limited, there is a strong enough signal that as the SD shrtwv lifts to the ene and the cold front nears thunderstorms will again increase in coverage with some developing/extending into west or central Upper Michigan even as the higher chances remain to the south. Weak front will clear the area by early Friday with slightly cooler and drier filtering into the U. Cooling will be a little more downwind of Lake Superior aided by the cooler waters.
Areas up towards Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla are up around 90 while temperatures around Branson were only in the lower 70s.
Less oppressive temperatures/dew points set for Friday as high pressure builds in from the Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region.
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Low pressure will continue to move up the North Carolina coast through tonight and then near or offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. A cold front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. As of mid afternoon, low pressure currently sits near Cape Hatteras and continues slow north-northeastward progress. Nearly all rain should end by midnight, but a lingering shower will be possible out by Rocky Mount along the fringes of the low pressure system. Although today has been warm, southwest winds will allow even warmer air to advect into the region, and many locations will rise into the mid 90s.
Very strong high pressure will build over the southwest United States this weekend, with dangerously hot temperatures expected across northern Arizona. High pressure will amplify heading into the weekend.
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms today, especially this evening.
Precipitation chances will return Friday night as the 850 theta-e ridge works back into the area, and convection that forms over the Dakotas drops southeast along the thickness gradient.
322 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Lower tropospheric ridging is fractured across Florida, with one dominant node centered southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi. Temperatures across the island chain range from rain-cooled lower 80s in the Lower Keys, to the lower 90s east of the Seven Mile Bridge. Most locations along the island chain were rain free today, although portions of the Lower Keys registered nearly two inches of rain over the past several hours.
Scattered thunderstorms moving down the east side of the upper ridge from north of Jackson Mississippi to north of Mobile. Mostly just scattered cumulus across the area this afternoon, with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 90s. As ridging builds toward the area, any threat of convection at all will be limited to late afternoon isolated thunderstorms.
As mentioned in the discussion below, a weak upper trough will move in from the west later today. Given the high fire danger to the areas mentioned above, we felt it was best to lean on the side of caution, so nobody is caught off guard. This will filter into the area as a weak trough moves ashore to our north today. Conditions will improve on today as the thermal trough moves inland.
309 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Tonight, as rains come to an end and skies clear, an upper trough continues to deepen as it moves to the east from the southern Minnesota/Wisconsin border. This cold front is expected to reach the Lower Ohio River Valley tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, the day begins with precipitation chances increasing from the northwest ahead of the advancing cold front.
With moderate instability and a weak trough across the area, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s. The low pressure area along the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday morning is expected to evolve into a tropical cyclone and continue to move northeastward, away from our area. Long wave upper trough remains over the area and expect the weak surface convergence associated with persistent trough. Short waves rotating through upper trough may trigger a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The temperatures on Friday should be a little warmer with more sun as the deeper moisture shifts offshore and 700mb-850mb flow becoming more west with resulting warm advection and downslope.
850 mb temps at around 21-23 (C) for most of the CWA would suggest a second straight day of temperatures being more in the low to mid 90s range for highs.
In the wake of Friday night's active convective weather, slightly drier and cooler air will advect in from the northwest for the weekend. Highs are expected to be near normal, in the low to mid 80s. Northwest flow aloft with subsidence due to a building ridge should bring quieter conditions throughout the weekend.
With moderate instability and a weak trough across the area, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s. Low pressure will continue moving northward along the mid Atlantic Seaboard Friday and into the Hudson Valley Friday night.
Deep layer west-northwest flow continues as a strengthening low (Invest 98L) moves north-northeastward up the mid-Atlantic coast with its associated trough extending south across the region and high pressure remaining over the central Gulf of Mexico.
932 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 MORNING UPDATE: A ridge will build into the area today and will bring fairly quiet weather throughout the area today, therefore no updates to the forecast were made this morning. Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the Intermountain West falling into the US plains and cool Pacific air over the southwestern quarter of Canada. Today through tonight: A weak ridge will move north into eastern Montana today and exit overnight. With the exit of the ridge isolated showers may develop early Friday morning.
Very warm temperatures continue as well with forecast high temperatures mostly in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 102-107 degree range. High pressure at the surface and aloft will then attempt to rebuild over the western and northern Gulf by mid-week. Daytime temperatures will continue to climb into the lower 90s across the coastal areas to mid-upper 90s over the interior.
A warm night is in store with lows in the lower 70s in the Hill Country to near 80 degrees along the Rio Grande and over the coastal plains.
206 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low into the southwest corner of Manitoba resulting wsw flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. Although confidence is limited, there is a strong enough signal that as the SD shrtwv lifts to the ene and the cold front nears thunderstorms will again increase in coverage with some developing/extending into west or central Upper Michigan even as the higher chances remain to the south. Although there may be trend toward cooler weather this weekend, above average temperatures are expected to continue. Temps will still climb into the low to mid 80s with 70s downwind of northwest flow off of Lake Superior.
Weak upper trough will remain across much of the eastern US one- third, as weak low pushes off the Atlantic coast. Development with these features may be largely morning, as drying is indicated behind this SFC/LL trough. We will remain in a NW upper flow regime Fri night but LL high pressure will move in and remain through Sat. Drier air and this high will reduce our a good bit Fri night into Sat night.
Thus far, convective activity has been relegated to the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau in eastern TN into DeKalb County AL along Lookout Mtn.
Expect dry conditions to continue overnight with lows falling into the lower 70s.
A cold front has pushed east of our CWA, while a mid-upper level trough passes to our our east associated with a deeper upper low in Canada. This matches expected model trends, and we should eventually have light winds this evening/overnight with high pressure building east. Friday-Friday night: Another trough will move west to east across the Northern Plains with period of high falls/positive vorticity advection moving into our CWA Friday evening/Friday night.
Models show the low level jet eventually veering out late tonight(mainly after 2am) which could activate mid-level baroclinic zone for thunderstorm development over central/south central Kansas. Meanwhile, a low pressure center is over the Texas panhandle with this the residual MCS outflow boundary extending southeast across Oklahoma. Not much to see in the extended with upper ridging dominating the weather pattern.
Afternoon highs reach the low 90s with peak heat indices between 100-105.
Vertz Low amplitude ridge and quiet weather exists over the region today. Stronger Pacific trof will move thru the area on Friday. Cold front will arrive in our west early in the morning, reaching Billings around 15Z, and with the fropa will come breezy NW winds and some mainly light showers. Evolution of this trof has slowed a bit, leaving a bit more time for more moistening/destabilizing of the air mass in our east.
740 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 A cold front will track across the state tonight, bringing scattered thunderstorms. Behind the front for late tonight and Friday, a period of brisk (for mid- summer) west/northwest winds will overspread the area as the gradient briefly tightens ahead of 1015 mb high pressure building towards MO. This "cold air" advection should limit highs to the upper 80s, though with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s conditions will still be humid.
Convection became more scattered late this afternoon and early evening across southeast half of the forecast area as heating allowed temperatures to climb to the lower to mid 90s across the valley areas.
Also, a surface trof or residual outflow boundary has moved into parts of the OK Panhandle and the northeastern TX Panhandle. Additional Heat Advisories will likely become necessary during this time period as an upper level ridge of high pressure dominates the weather in our area.
532 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 With the upper-level high pressure centered over the southern US and northern Mexico a pressure gradient still exists over our area. Tomorrow the high pressure will lift northward causing the high temperatures to be 2-3 degrees warmer than today. The high pressure will continue to lift northward toward the Four Corner region. Therefore each day into the weekend will gradually get warmer. Near record heat will be possible as the thermal ridge accompanies the high.
Highest temperatures will be observed over eastern Mendocino and much of Lake County where highs may reach the low 100s. Marine air and ocean breezes will keep coastal areas seasonably cooler. The net result will be the low clouds linger into the late morning early afternoon while some patchy coastal drizzle is possible this weekend. A trough aloft over the Pacific NW will likely keep the hot four corners ridge from building firmly over the area.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and tonight through Friday as an upper low and associated cold front track southeastward across central Indiana.
338 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 With the upper-level high pressure centered over the southern US and northern Mexico a pressure gradient still exists over our area. Tomorrow the high pressure will lift northward causing the high temperatures to be 2-3 degrees warmer than today. The high pressure will continue to lift northward toward the Four Corner region. Therefore each day into the weekend will gradually get warmer. Near record heat will be possible as the thermal ridge accompanies the high.
644 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the evening over portions of northern Wisconsin which will be ahead of the cold front and which will also get brushed by an MCV that's off to the south. There may be some patchy fog in spots and lows will drop into the lower fifties to around sixty. Friday will be dry thanks to weak ridging.
Still looks like the overnight hours will remain dry, but we could see chances for showers and storms increase near sunrise across our far west ahead of a cold front. Tonight, as rains come to an end and skies clear, an upper trough continues to deepen as it moves to the east from the southern Minnesota/Wisconsin border. This cold front is expected to reach the Lower Ohio River Valley tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, the day begins with precipitation chances increasing from the northwest ahead of the advancing cold front.
Tempo group in for DRT with the lower confidence of ceilings reaching that far west. A warm night is in store with lows in the lower 70s in the Hill Country to near 80 degrees along the Rio Grande and over the coastal plains.
The frontal boundary continues to shift more westward than the models initially had it, with dewpoints over northeast Weld County in the low 60s early this afternoon. Fire danger will be elevated with dry fuels, single digit rh's and gusty winds primarily in the high mountain valleys, and along the northern border areas. Through the weekend, hot weather will continue as the strong upper level ridge remains in place over the southwestern United States.
Generally drier and warmer conditions are expected until late tonight, though a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over portions of the southwest through this evening.
307 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An upper ridge will continue to build over the area from the west this afternoon. At the surface, a weak trof extends from northeastern South Dakota in southwester SD. The high dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing during the afternoon.