Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure is currently centered over northern Indiana. T This high will move slowly east today keeping dry weather across the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Friday with high in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
1243 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 A cold front will slide well offshore tonight. A weak cold front will approach from the north on Thursday then wash out north of the border Thursday night.
Regional radar display shows shower and thunderstorm develop well upstream that will be moving onto the Cheyenne Ridge. Highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s, warmest over northwest and southwest NEB. Large scale pattern early Friday is expected to consist of a) a broad upper-level ridge in the western CONUS that extends from the desert Southwest north across the Northern Intermountain West and b) an upper-level low centered over southern Manitoba.
Dewpoints over the entire forecast area have dropped below 60 and should remain there with few exceptions until after the high is well to our east and southerly flow returns - which will not occur until Friday. Highs on Thursday will be a few notches higher than today - in the lower to mid 80s. Skies will still be mostly clear, but enjoy the last of the low dewpoints. Through the weekend, it will feel warmer and a little more sticky, but still nice.
Warming temperatures expected through the weekend as an upper level ridge moves over the Lakes Region. Another upper level trough and associated positive vorticity maximum will move south during the morning hours supporting the convection. Upper level trough axis will shift east into PA this evening. A weak upper level trough axis will move into the area midday and into the afternoon Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Thursday and a bit more mild Thursday night as weak WAA starts. High temps in the afternoon will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will continue to warm as the upper level ridge builds in and thicknesses rise.
High pressure that has resided over the area the past two days will begin to shift eastward today, this will bring a return to weak WAA. Models continue to advertise a upper level pattern shift from eastern CONUS troughing and ridging over the Rockies to a pattern of quasi-zonal flow across the northern CONUS over the weekend.
420 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Under mostly cloudy skies and light south to southwest winds, temperatures are mainly in the lower 80s except the upper 70s in the rain soaked westernmost Lower Keys. A deep layered western Atlantic high pressure cell will lie nearby through tonight, before lifting northward on Friday into this weekend.
High pressure to our west over the Four Corners Region will keep northerly flow aloft over the Natural State through the period.
730 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 An area of high pressure will build into the central Appalachians today, and remain anchored over this region through the weekend.
Temperatures will be running about 3 to 6 degrees cooler today and Friday with deeper moisture in place along with increased cloud cover.
Max temps holding in the mid 80s across the north due to clouds and precip, while Treasure coast will once again see the warmest temps reaching the low 90s before storms move in from the west.
Light westerly wind becomes light south tonight under mostly clear sky as high pressure drifts across the region through sunrise Friday.
/issued 424 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A high pressure ridge will remain over the general area for the next few days. In fact, low temperatures in the lower 60s may come close to breaking the current record low minimum temperatures of 60 for San Angelo and 63 for Abilene.
954 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Cold front is about to make its way through the James River Valley. Thunderstorms have continued this morning as a cold front makes its way across the region.
Rain showers located ahead of the trough over south central South Dakota will move eastward and out of the forecast area early this morning. A cold front has entered northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota and a few light rain showers have developed along the front in northeastern Wyoming. Models differ on the location of the cold front this afternoon. The upper low will move eastward toward the Great Lakes region on Friday as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, leading to northwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
255 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Hot temperatures this week with widespread triple digits at the lower elevations.
412 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 As of 08Z Thursday morning broad midlevel ridging continues across the southwestern half of the CONUS. At the surface, troughing across the High Plains continues to deepen with the approaching midlevel low/trough. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than prior days with highs in the mid 80s.
High pressure stretches from central Iowa into the Mid Atlantic states early this morning with some high clouds streaming southward across central and eastern Iowa.
Morning 12Z regional soundings indicated less than an inch PWs, with a cold front analyzed off the Gulf Coast. We have warmed a couple degrees in low-level thermal profiles, but otherwise should only be a couple degrees or so warmer than yesterday, in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. While temperatures this afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer in most locations, mid 80s to around 90, overall less humid conditions will continue under sunny skies.
Highs today and tomorrow will be in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. The upper level ridge will slowly slide east from the Desert Southwest toward the High Plains. As it does so upper level short wave troughs will move around its periphery. These troughs will provide several chances for rainfall during this period.
Today and Friday will be MUCH drier as monsoonal and low level moisture is scoured out behind Wednesdays ridge crashing wave.
A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the area over the next several days allowing a warming trend over Western Washington. An upper level low will approach the area over the weekend for increased clouds and a chance of showers while temperatures fall closer to normal.
421 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Rather cool clear night for this time of year with temperatures across the area in the low to mid 60s north to the upper 60s near the I-10 corridor to the low to mid 70s along the immediate coast. High pressure will hold another day across the region with high temperatures once again holding below normal. Showers will develop late toward Friday morning well offshore but is a harbor of what is to come as the stalled frontal boundary over the middle gulf begins to retreat northward as a warm front on Friday.
424 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 (Today and Tonight) A high pressure ridge will remain over the general area for the next few days. In fact, low temperatures in the lower 60s may come close to breaking the current record low minimum temperatures of 60 for San Angelo and 63 for Abilene.
The high will begin to move south today and then westward through the weekend. This will begin to put much of the region in a less favorable flow pattern, while the airmass itself will become more stable as the warmer air aloft moves directly overhead.
1028 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through the weekend outside of an isolated shower and thunderstorm across the southeast ridges. updated PoPs for today through extended to better capture general climo, with support of GFS, of aftn showers in a warm and relatively humid environment over the higher terrain.
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern again today. /issued 421 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ Rather cool clear night for this time of year with temperatures across the area in the low to mid 60s north to the upper 60s near the I-10 corridor to the low to mid 70s along the immediate coast. High pressure will hold another day across the region with high temperatures once again holding below normal. Showers will develop late toward Friday morning well offshore but is a harbor of what is to come as the stalled frontal boundary over the middle gulf begins to retreat northward as a warm front on Friday.
This will result in another warm day, with highs in the lower to middle 80s, except mid to upper 70s lakeside. Models still show modest MLCAPE of 300-600 j/kg over eastern WI this afternoon, but little precipitation development as an upper level ridge moves through. A steady light south to southwest wind and increasing clouds will result in a milder night, with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to overspread the region on Friday, as a cold front approaches far northwest WI later in the day. Look for highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s, except locally cooler along the Lake Michigan shoreline.
The cold front that passed a few days ago swept the low level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico.
The area of high pressure that brought the string of cooler and drier conditions will slowly shift east into the Ohio Valley today and the Mid Atlantic states by the weekend. At the same time, the highly amplified upper level pattern, with a western ridge and eastern trough, will flatten some through late week. This will allow for the influence of the upper level high to expand eastward and result in a slow moderation in temperatures through late week.
525 AM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019 12Z TAF CYCLE Abundant moisture in place beneath upper level high pressure centered over southwestern NM today will lead to a greater crop of SHRA/TSRA today. Storms will fire up over the higher terrain by 19Z then move slowly southward into nearby highlands/valleys thru 00Z.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 As of 08Z Thursday morning broad midlevel ridging continues across the southwestern half of the CONUS. At the surface, troughing across the High Plains continues to deepen with the approaching midlevel low/trough. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than prior days with highs in the mid 80s.
Thunderstorms have continued this morning as a cold front makes its way across the region.
High pressure is set to begin building into north- central Idaho and western Montana today. Warm and dry conditions remain for Friday, which is when the current high pressure ridge will reach its peak. This dry air and building high pressure will leave storm free conditions and minimal cloud cover today.
The northerly flow further dries out the lowest levels so no fog expected tonight.
352 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 While today has been slightly warmer than yesterday, dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s have made for another pleasant day. The low for Corpus Christi is 70, and Victoria is 69, both of which will be in jeopardy of being broken.
Conditions remain dry with southerly winds tomorrow morning as high pressure drifts east of Michigan.
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through the weekend outside of an isolated shower and thunderstorm across the southeast ridges. updated PoPs for today through extended to better capture general climo, with support of GFS, of aftn showers in a warm and relatively humid environment over the higher terrain.
Progressive upper level low currently over south central Canada will fire off some storms over northwest MN and drop south overnight, possibly using the LLJ to make it far south as northern Iowa toward the morning hours Friday. Most favorable kinematic/thermodynamic support stays north closer to the upper low, so confidence is not overly high that any convection makes it this far south. Storm chances shift north and east of the area Friday as the upper low departs.
A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the area the next few days with a warming trend through Friday.
However, we may have too much clouds for thunderstorm development as many of the high resolution models are indicating. Think the clouds may keep temps cooler a touch than what some of the models are advertising.
339 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had high pressure over northeastern New Mexico. North of the high, a closed low was located over central Saskatchewan. Low pressure aloft over southern Canada will track east overnight. With little or no forcing aloft and good subsidence on the western axis of the northern stream low and trough, dry conditions will be expected for the bulk of the forecast area. Some isolated convection will develop on the northern and nern periphery of the upper level high over northeastern New Mexico.
244 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure will build over the region through tomorrow night.
With the intrusion of warmer and more humid air, temperatures tonight will be about 3-5 degrees warmer than this morning.
A cold front has made its way through all but the far southeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon. It will be cooler with more clouds over the far north central, closer to the upper low that tracks across southern Manitoba.
The Canadian highs pressure that brought the cooler air earlier this week is now moving off to the north and east. Metzger The extended range starts off interesting as the next cold front encroaches on the region.
259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Tonight through tomorrow (Friday): This stretch of quiet & cooler than normal weather will continue tonight. Overall limited moisture should keep any showers or convection closer to the Gulf Coast & south of the Highway 98 corridor & Pine Belt.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure over portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. This has resulted in sunny skies and temperatures as of 2 PM CDT in the lower to middle 80s at most locations.
348 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 20Z water vapor imagery shows an expansive midlevel ridge over the Four Corners region and a compact area of midlevel cyclonic circulation moving across Saskatchewan, Canada. The airmass over northeast KS remains fairly dry in the low levels, per BUFR soundings, which will limit rain potential this afternoon/evening. Slight low level WAA will allow temperatures to be a touch warmer, which will be the general rule through the weekend as well.
The stationary front is expected to transition to a warm front and move north during the forecast period, which will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Isolated showers are also possible, but mainly for the lower Texas coastal waters and the three immediate coastal counties.
There is a cold front analyzed roughly half way through the CWA, per surface obs/pressure and radar data. Will continue to monitor the latest radar trends, and make small updates as needed to the low end pops. Another impact from the cold front will the on fire weather. A large upper level high pressure area over the southwest U. Our region will continue to be affected by westerly flow aloft on the northern edge of the upper high with a couple short wave troughs moving through bringing chances of showers and storms with them.
Deterministic or ensembles all agree on high pressure dominating the short term. High pressure was centered just northeast of the area and should inhibit any convection through the short term. As we progress into the weekend the high will drift slowly toward the east coast.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ The latest mid-level analysis indicates a 500mb ridge centered across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a 1024mb high is centered over the Ohio Valley with the axis of high pressure extending southwest into the ArkLaTex region. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM are all in agreement that the deep ridge across the Southwest will remain in place through Friday night. The NBM appears a little warm with highs on Friday, so went with a cooler MAV/MET blend in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Overnight lows will be in mid 60s tonight and slightly warmer with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 on Friday night.
102 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure will move in from the west over the next several days. High pressure moving from the Midwest into the Middle Atlantic States will direct a dry northeasterly flow into the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday with a little less of a breeze. Modified Canadian high pressure will provide The Midlands and CSRA with dry weather through this weekend. Weak high pressure aloft persists over the Southeast U. High pressure moving from the Midwest into the Middle Atlantic States will direct a dry northeasterly flow into the forecast area, with winds 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Deeper moisture will remain well east of the area ahead of upper troughing, but there remains enough mid-level moisture for fair weather cumulus.
Previous Discussion from 238 am MDT: Synoptic Setup: To the south,hot high pressure has made it into southern Idaho and southern Montana from the Intermountain and Desert Southwest. This is forming a blocking pattern for progressive (west to east) flow. To the north The Gulf of Alaska through southern Canada remains an express lane for relatively cooler ridges and troughs. When a ridge moves by the warm air attempts to surge northward, when a trough moves by it is beat back south with outside chances for thunder drifting across northern zones.
A ridge building over the northern Rockies is causing clear skies and warm weather. The dry cold front yesterday brought a drier air mass into the region, so humidity today is much lower than it has been recently with many locations dropping into the low teens and single digits.
250 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure through the weekend.
Moisture levels will be returning on Friday as high pressure moves off to the east and winds become east-southeast.
241 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Current surface map places cold front across eastern North Dakota into central Nebraska.
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure remaining north of the area will bring several days of dry, seasonable afternoons and slightly cool nights. Water vapor imagery and upper level model analysis shows a general trough pattern positioned over the eastern third of the CONUS with an upper level ridge over the west. At the surface, a high pressure system positioned over the east brought clear skies over many location. Breezy conditions across the Carolinas with gusts up to 25 mph for some locations with temperatures in the low to mid 80s, which is slightly warmer than 24 hours ago at this time.
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern half of the U.
a warmer and more humid air mass. Temperatures overnight should be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Friday climbing into the mid 80s. The upper level ridge centered over the Rockies has begun to flatten out as a short wave trough continues to track across southern Canada. As this trough moves into the Great Lakes region. it will allow the upper level trough over the Ohio Valley to begin to lift to the northeast and the upper western ridge to flatten further eastward.
241 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 A frontal zone now analyzed across north central Florida will make little equatorward progress owing to Atlantic ridging firmly entrenched to the south and east. With troughing across the Southeast CONUS south to southwest steering flow will continue this evening, focusing convective coverage towards the Atlantic metro areas. The frontal zone to our north will gradually dissipate as high pressure builds into our area from the east. Atlantic high pressure should remain the dominant feature with easterly winds leading to a typical summer pattern of sea breeze driven convection, with the greater afternoon coverage over the interior and gulf coast.
148 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019 A surge of monsoonal moisture rotating around the west and north quadrants of a huge ridge will continue providing the focus for convection the next 24 hours.
As the high pressure weakens over the land areas, southerly winds will prevail and further enhance the moisture to the region and a typical summertime pattern will set over the weekend.
Overnight a cold front passes through North Dakota and Minnesota, and a few thunderstorms could travel southward along the boundary affecting southwest MN.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will remain over the region through tomorrow. A mid and upper level ridge will generally remain centered over the southwestern United States through this weekend.
Dry and hot weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure in place.
312 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Updated at 310 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure continues to cover the area with little change through tomorrow. Fortunately, humidity levels will remain manageable with dewpoints in the lower 60s, so heat index values will be roughly the same as the actual temp, and overnight lows can still drop into the mid/upper 60s, a bit below normal. The one real chance for precip will be Mon night/Tue as a progressive upper trof pushes through the Great Lakes. Pattern really starts to amplify later in the week with a hot ridge over the Intermountain West, resulting in NW flow from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
With high pressure gradually easing to the north of the forecast area, winds will remain mostly light and gradually shift erly. /issued 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ High pressure will dominate the weather pattern again today. /issued 421 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ Rather cool clear night for this time of year with temperatures across the area in the low to mid 60s north to the upper 60s near the I-10 corridor to the low to mid 70s along the immediate coast. High pressure will hold another day across the region with high temperatures once again holding below normal. Showers will develop late toward Friday morning well offshore but is a harbor of what is to come as the stalled frontal boundary over the middle gulf begins to retreat northward as a warm front on Friday.
Otherwise, large high pressure dome was situated over the western half of the CONUS.
244 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through the weekend outside of an isolated shower and thunderstorm across the southeast ridges. An isolated shower can't be ruled out across the far southeast ridges due to weak orographic lift and enough low level moisture, but any showers that develop will end shortly after sunset and produce little to no accumulation.
239 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 (Tonight and Thursday) Quiet weather will continue in the short term, as the subtropical ridge remains the dominant weather feature. Temperatures will be cool again tonight, although not as cool as the past couple of nights with lows mainly in the lower and middle 60s. Temperatures will still remain a bit below normal on Friday, with sunny skies, light winds and afternoon highs in the lower 90s.
This had allowed for winds to vary from east to southeast to south across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the region gets more on the backside of the high pressure. temperatures and dewpoints were running a couple degrees warmer this afternoon compared to 24-hrs ago across much of the CWA.
A 1023 mb ridge of high pressure is resulting in sunny skies across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the middle to upper 70s at most locations. High pressure is currently centered over northern Indiana. T This high will move slowly east today keeping dry weather across the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Friday with high in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
226 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Latest surface analysis had high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and southerly return flow, albeit weak, across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Temps were near normal into the low to mid 80s. The humidity has been comfortable with dewpoints only into the lower 60s. Ridging builds in across the central US, bringing with it warmer air and more moisture to the area.