Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Brief periods of heavy rainfall will also remain possible into the early morning hrs, given the close proximity of the associated low pressure system.
714 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 High pressure will maintain control of our local weather into Tuesday. The high pressure system will shift eastward as tropical storm Irma continues its trek into the Tennessee valley. Mins warmer then last night, due to the expected slower arrival of thicker clouds and any rain on Tuesday and increased Max temps Tuesday.
A weak frontal system will wash out just to our north today, leaving most of the region under the influence of weak high pressure this afternoon through Friday night.
1020 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Partly sunny and warmer than average temperatures are expected today with weak high pressure building into the region.
1007 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A quiet day across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure established at the surface and an upper-ridge maintained to the southwest across the Texas Hill County. Given the dry boundary layer and good isolation, highs will once again warm into the low to mid 80s. Easterly surface winds will promote some slightly cooler air across the valleys and terrain of far Northeast Alabama, where some located spots will peak in the upper 70s. The trough moving across the Intermountain West will be moving across the central/southern Plains bringing the potential for severe weather over TX/OK/KS region on Friday. Meanwhile, further east, the ridge will be moving towards the east becoming centered north of the Bahamas.
An upper level trough will extend fm the nrn Rockies into the Great Basin with Sw flow aloft over nrn CO. Highs this aftn will range will mainly be in the 60s over nern CO except over srn Lincoln county where temps may reach the lower to mid 70s. For tonight the upper level trough will begin to move east with an increase in mid lvl ascent overnight. The main batch of energy is expected to push east through the afternoon, as will the highest PoPs.
Temperature trends would suggest that tonight's lows should be warmer than this morning's low temperatures. As for the remainder of Thursday, we'll see the cold trough move eastward resulting in clearing skies.
A synoptic scale ridge that has been in place across the Southeast over the past several days will continue to suppress convective updrafts today with a strong capping inversion in place in the low levels. After some patchy morning fog underneath high cirrus clouds dissipates, the TN Valley should warm nicely into the low 80s with light easterly winds keeping dewpoints generally below 60 degrees. The trough moving across the Intermountain West will be moving across the central/southern Plains bringing the potential for severe weather over TX/OK/KS region on Friday. Meanwhile, further east, the ridge will be moving towards the east becoming centered north of the Bahamas.
942 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will push south across the forecast area today. then lift north as a warm front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak cold front near a FDY to ERI line. Models continue to lift front back north as a warm front, but models a little slower with the front. Showers are expected to lift northward with the warm front Friday night.
1047 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
1107 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Currently - A very wet and windy morning across the Keys was due to the combination of a sharp low level trough and a large upper level trough aligned just west of our area. Fresh to Strong winds associated with this low and related shower activity will gradually shift more uniformly southeasterly and relax.
A weak upper level low pressure system is located over central Idaho this morning. An offshore ridge builds over the forecast area this evening and tonight. Lows will likely be a few degrees warmer than this morning, but still mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.
527 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A relatively dry southwest flow continued over the region early this morning as the area remained between low pressure over the northwestern U. and a broad expanse of high pressure over south-central and southeastern U. A stalled cold front remained in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor which will make forecast highs a bit of challenge today. Despite being a fairly deep trough, the relative dryness of the airmass of the area will limit showers and thunderstorms with Colorado's northern and central mountains favored. Chances elsewhere and in the lower elevations will be limited to non-existent. Numerical guidance was warmer but favored colder blended bias corrected forecast.
Still expect decreasing clouds through the day, but ample cloud cover continues to linger this morning under the elongated upper trough overhead. Gilchrist Previous discussion: Synopsis: short term begins with a trough running from the central Idaho through southern Montana and into the Great lakes. Right above this a ridge sits running from Oregon through southern British Columbia and then spilling out on the High Plains of Alberta into a chinook. Yet another larger trough is exiting the Gulf of Alaska for northern British Columbia. Today through Tonight: trough lifting into the region this morning is expected to lose steam and then reverse to the south as the ridge to the north presses down on it. Friday: Ridge should be in full swing across the area with some extra downslope from a weak chinook.
1220 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will push south across the forecast area today. then lift north as a warm front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak cold front near a FDY to ERI line. Models continue to lift front back north as a warm front, but models a little slower with the front. Showers are expected to lift northward with the warm front Friday night.
Lowered the high temps slightly due to the clouds. Breezy sly winds and high waves will occur Fri nt-Sat as strengthening low pressure tracks from the central Great Plains to Lake Superior. The cold frontal passage will then shift the winds to gusty swly by late Sat afternoon or evening. A double upper jet structure moves across Wisconsin today and tonight ahead of a trough moving into the northern Rockies. looks like any precipitation today would be sprinkles due to the low level dry air.
Temperatures will likely be warmer than the last couple of days as a result of decreased cloud cover and less precipitation. Friday will be warmer and breezier ahead of a cold front that should push into the region Friday night.
/Issued 422 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to influence the weather across the CWFA through Friday. Currently, there is a weakness in the upper ridge across the far southern CWFA, but stronger ridging from the west will build in overnight and Friday. At the surface, the wedging high pressure will remain in place, but will weaken through the period. ECMWF/GFS are in better agreement that ridging in the Atlantic will keep the cyclone closer to the western portion of the current NHC cone of uncertainty through this weekend.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in another quiet and toasty early-October afternoon across the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: The ArkLaMiss will remain under the influence of broad ridging with the ridge initially centered over central Texas at the start of the period. Despite the center of the ridge being well to our west, anomalously high mid-level heights and temps will keep warm daytime high temps in the upper 80s across much of the region. The overnight period will be primed for radiational cooling with light to calm winds under a relaxed surface pressure gradient and clear skies with low temps dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s.
Dry weather with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend. An upper low north of the area should continue to rotate across northern Nevada through today, leaving the forecast under dry southwest flow. A weak cold front expect to work its way down the southern Great Basin tonight leading to areas of breezy northerly winds tonight and Friday.
1048 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure remains situated across the region resulting in a mostly clear sky and max temperatures in the low 80s for most.
959 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front over northern Pennsylvania will drift slowly south and stall out across the southern part of the state tonight into Friday.
748 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Aviation A dry day is in store with high pressure in control, although cloud cover will increase this afternoon and a few light showers are possible tonight.
911 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The region will be between high pressure to the North, and a low passing West into the Gulf that is positioned over far Southern portion of the state this morning. The combination of moisture pushing North from this low, along with onshore flow, will provide the chance for showers Today, with the best chances for showers near the coast.
521 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind.
132 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight chance pops. Sunday night and Monday, as a cold front pushes southeast of the area and a dry, stable post frontal air mass moves into the region expect skies to clear and dry conditions to prevail. During the day on Monday, surface ridging will begin to slide southeast of the area ushering in southerly winds and a warmer air mass.
322 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight chance pops. The mid-lvl ridge axis is progged to become positioned over the Southern Plains, which will likely keep a frontal boundary displaced along the northern periphery. Mon/Tue: Southerly flow will advect warmer temps across the U. Passage of cold front and development of cool upslope flow will result in IFR/LIFR cigs overnight tonight through this morning at KSAW. A cold front will move through this afternoon and push south of the area, winds will become north-northeasterly this evening into Sunday around 15 to 20 knots.
Quiet evening across central Kentucky and southern Indiana as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather. Some patchy fog will be possible in the low- lying and typical fog prone areas overnight. Some patchy fog to areas of fog will develop after midnight across the region as temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, topping out in the mid to upper 80s. For tomorrow night, a cold front will drop towards southern IN. Thereafter, upper level ridging will build in through the midweek timeframe.
232 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across Minnesota, with remnants of stationary front across western South Dakota. Strong upper ridge across the Rockies into the Northern Plains will bring another hot day. Old surface front will lift northward today as trof/dry line.
252 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Overnight GOES-16 water vapor loop depicted a mid/upper level ridge dominating the west-central CONUS. Weak disturbances trapped under the ridge triggered several clusters of active convection from the Desert Southwest to the southern Great Plains. 00Z short range models and ensembles are in good agreement progging the upper ridge to gradually shift to the east and south through early this week, opening the door to subtropical/monsoonal moisture. Similar high temperatures are forecast Monday, slightly warmer across southeast WY and southern NE Panhandle.
Low level ridge axis will shift south across north central Florida and produce light and variable winds this morning, turning onshore in a sea breeze by afternoon along the coast. GFS model shows a little moistening across the south so the highest PoPs will be confined around Lake Okeechobee (40 percent) where the sea breeze interacts with the Lake breeze boundary this afternoon. A mid-level trough digging into the southeast will shunt the Atlantic ridge axis into central/south Florida as moisture levels gradually increase, especially across our southern zones.
1146 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Remnant showers and storms over northern New Mexico tonight, thanks to converging flow from an easterly wave south of the area and northerly flow between the upper high and a low over eastern CO. Showers and thunderstorms started early today over the high terrain, but have not gained much ground since then. On Monday, the upper high that is currently centered over southern NV will elongate eastward from NV to OK.
248 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Upper ridging remains in place from the Rockies into the central and northern Plains. Medium range models do try and bring a cold front down into the central Plains Sat into Sat night, but confidence in this making it into our forecast area is low at this time.
350 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will stall out across the area tonight, then gradually dissipate Sunday into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. The mid level trough axis is forecast to remain along the Appalachians Monday and Monday night. Even though the low level boundary should just about wash out by then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Quiet weather will remain across central and southeast Illinois overnight with high pressure lingering over the area. However, a weak front/trof is sinking toward the area from the upper Midwest. It will be warmer tonight than last night as low-level flow turns more southerly between departing ridge axis and approaching boundary. High pressure was centered just north of Bloomington early this afternoon, and will be shifting into the Ohio Valley this evening. Latest model guidance suggests a few showers/storms with it will be possible as soon as late Sunday morning across the northern CWA, but main threat remains with scattered afternoon and early evening storms as the cold front moves southward across the forecast area. Have continued the trend of raising the high temperatures from the model blends, solidly in the low-mid 90s most areas.
306 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Today will be breezy and cooler behind a cold front that moved through the region overnight. Winds will subside overnight leading to a cooler than average night tonight.
With the strong outflow boundary moving south and expected to set up across our central TX counties, and higher moisture generally across the southern half of the CWA, we'll have the highest PoPs generally south of I-20. Dunn /Monday Onward/ The upcoming week will feature hot and mostly dry conditions across the forecast area as the upper ridge expands eastward into the central and southern Plains. Through midweek, the upper ridge will gradually intensify, leading to a subtle warming trend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring overnight as energy associated with a pre-frontal trough interacted with a low level jet over the region. Ridge crasher system is still on track to affect the area today and into this evening. Cold front will move through the area during the afternoon and early evening hours with a squall line of strong thunderstorms forming along it. Temperatures in the 90s to low 100s today will cool into the 80s and low 90s behind the cold front for Monday.
Dewpoints north of the boundary have remained in the low to mid 60s, while dewpoints south of the boundary are in the 70s. Temperatures this afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than they were yesterday, but the dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s, making it feel "comfortable" outside by mid-July standards. A weak cold front near the Great Lakes region will begin diving southward today, and showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of it in northern and central Indiana/Illinois. Upper level ridge over the central US will begin inching toward the region. While the core of warmest air aloft should remain off to our west, we should see temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s toward the mid and late week period. Subsidence associated with the upper level ridge should keep things dry through most of the week.
An inverted trough will be forming in the height field just south of Plains ridging and eastern CONUS troughing tomorrow. Models advect in early work week higher PVA within easterly flow underneath an eastward expanding Southern Plains ridge. The only mentionable item in the extended will be that upper ridging will envelop the southeastern U.
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 High pressure centered over northeastern Minnesota early this morning will continue to provide dry conditions and plenty of sun through the afternoon across the area. As the high slides further east, southeasterly winds will begin to pick up behind it, especially across the western half of the forecast area.
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will stall out across the area tonight, then gradually dissipate Sunday into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. The mid level trough axis is forecast to remain along the Appalachians Monday and Monday night. Even though the low level boundary should just about wash out by then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
218 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 There will be little change in sensible weather this week outside of variations in the marine layer, as high pressure over the Eastern Pacific persists and weak low pressure troughing maintains a southwest flow over the forecast area in the upper levels.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the highest concentration stretching from the big bend and eastern panhandle northward into adjacent sections of southern Georgia. An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will amplify through Sunday night, pushing a weak surface frontal boundary into the southeast by Sunday night. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level low drifting eastward across eastern Colorado while a larger scale upper level ridge of high pressure is moving east across the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting slowly east across the Ohio River Valley. The frontal system that is south of us today will have moved north as a warm front by Monday into northern Kansas.
Upper level analysis at 500mb still shows upper level ridge over the Rockies with troughing through the Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery shows an elongated shear axis and weakness in the ridge over the Miss River Valley stretching back towards the Texas Gulf coast. Based on the 00Z LCH sounding and model soundings across the area, convective temperatures should again be in the low/mid 80s with moist adiabatic lapse rates supporting very talk and skinny CAPE.
257 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis indicate a series of vorticity lobes embedded within broader-scale troughing over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a pronounced upstream ridge was depicted from the Four Corners into the Canadian prairie provinces with a subtle mid-level low over the central High Plains. In the low levels, a weak baroclinic zone stretched from southern WI westward across northern parts of IA and NE into the northern High Plains as of 06z. This low pressure will subsequently develop east across the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley through Monday night while a trailing cool front edges south through the northern Plains.
322 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Slightly, and I emphasize slightly, cooler and drier will be in place over the area today in the wake of yesterdays weak frontal passage.
328 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually settle south from Canada and stall over northern New England tonight before returning north on Monday.
High level cloudiness (remnant moisture from former TS Eugene) spread over the area from the SW Sat afternoon/evening as moisture worked its around the Wrn periphery of the Desert SW high and ahead of the weak trof just off the CA coast. The moisture will skirt across the Srn portion of the CWA into Sun as an upper trof moves through the Pac NW and suppresses this moisture to the Srn zones. Another hot day is in store for Norcal on Sun as temperatures should trend a few degrees warmer than Sat for most locations. JHM The heat will be short lived as the high pressure shifts to the east and a weak trough develops over the west coast.
640 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will move south and bring scattered storms to the area today into this evening.
416 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 An slowly approaching cold front will stall over the area into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. Latest SPC HRRR showing the highest pops towards late afternoon. The main front will weaken and wash out across the forecast area on Monday, although a weak lee-side trough should still remain. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s, and highs on Monday in the upper 80s.
High level cloudiness spread over the area from the SW Sat afternoon/evening as moisture worked its around the Wrn periphery of the Desert SW high and ahead of the weak trof just off the CA coast. The moisture will skirt across the Srn portion of the CWA into Sun as an upper trof moves through the Pac NW and suppresses this moisture to the Srn zones. Another hot day is in store for Norcal on Sun as temperatures should trend a few degrees warmer than Sat for most locations. JHM The heat will be short lived as the high pressure shifts to the east and a weak trough develops over the west coast.
127 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight. A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday afternoon into Monday. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the nw to the mid 80 in the south.
539 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure drifting east across Pennsylvania today will supply abundant sunshine, low humidity, and light wind.
/Issued 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ The lee side low in the midst of all the high pressure continues to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. By Monday, the ridge of high pressure begins to strengthen and squash out the low pressure center; thus cutting off chances for storms. The ridge will continue to ride overhead through the week and keep conditions dry and hot. By week's end, the ridge begins to drift off of us slightly.
An inverted trough will approach from the east today with moisture increasing. Deeper moisture will surge northward off the Gulf late tonight into Sunday as the next mid-level inverted trough moves westward into Deep South Texas. Have slightly trimmed back PoPs for tonight from west to east with the timing of the higher moisture out west not expected to arrive until Sunday morning and afternoon. On Sunday, rain chances increase to 30% for much of the areas as the trough moves closer, but models still slightly differ, so have not made any major changes. Cooler temperatures are also expected on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower to upper 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Isolated convection is moving south across the Northeastern Ranchlands and Gulf Waters early this morning as the approaching inverted trough moves into the region. 0" or even a smidge higher for the Lower RGV by this afternoon. It will generally be in the lower to upper 90s along the coast to the Mid Valley.