Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
So southeast winds along with mid and high clouds, lows will be a bit milder with near normal lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Will see increasing low level moisture, weak instability and developing warm front lift northeastward through region late tonight. An upper trof will begin traversing the Rockies tonight with strong lee cyclogenesis thru Fri. Have trended temps warmer, but are probably still not warm enuf even with a short period of warming.
318 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Sprawling high pressure in place over the Central Great Lakes, with the center (1036-1038 MB) slow to exit southeast Michigan Tonight, providing favorable radiating conditions under clear skies and dry airmass in place, as surface dew pts reside in the single numbers across most areas this afternoon. Still, with the shorter nights and lack of snow cover, expecting mins to only bottom out in the lower teens across most locations as dew pts come up, otherwise Flint's daily record low of 7 degrees would be in jeopardy.
645 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Slow eastward exit of expansive arctic high pressure will sustain a stretch of favorable aviation conditions tonight and Thursday. Advancement of warmer mid level air into the region will bring a thickening/lowering high based cloud throughout Thursday. * None Sprawling high pressure in place over the Central Great Lakes, with the center (1036-1038 MB) slow to exit southeast Michigan Tonight, providing favorable radiating conditions under clear skies and dry airmass in place, as surface dew pts reside in the single numbers across most areas this afternoon. Still, with the shorter nights and lack of snow cover, expecting mins to only bottom out in the lower teens across most locations as dew pts come up, otherwise Flint's daily record low of 7 degrees would be in jeopardy.
A cold front moving across the area this afternoon will move across the northern gulf tonight before stalling out. A large area of high pressure across the Great lakes will move southeast and provide a low level easterly flow with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
326 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 The mid/upper-level trough across the east coast will continue to shift out into the Atlantic through tonight and into Wednesday as ridging builds over the southern part of the country and into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will be pushing south of the area Thursday night as an upper trough shifts east of the state.
450 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Vis imagery and observations indicate a thinning of the high clouds underway this afternoon. Despite the clouds, temps will likely drop to minima in the lower to mid 40s. As the 500 mb ridge shifts into the TN and lower MS valley on Thursday, a vast area of south-southwest flow in mid levels will develop across much of the southern and central U.
417 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast into the mid Atlantic states tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of the high will bring a warming trend for the rest of the week. A large low pressure system will move into the area over the weekend. High pressure centered to the north of the area will move southeast tonight. A weak warm front will lift north late Thursday into Thursday evening which will bring winds around to the south with wind speeds slowly increasing later Thursday night. 12Z model suite suggests that a few showers could occur near the warm front across the northern counties. Temperature forecast is on the cooler side of guidance.
115 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move southeast across the region tonight.
137 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A cold front will move through the area today.
248 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 indicate a thinning of the high clouds underway this afternoon. Despite the clouds, temps will likely drop to minima in the lower to mid 40s. As the 500 mb ridge shifts into the TN and lower MS valley on Thursday, a vast area of south-southwest flow in mid levels will develop across much of the southern and central U.
331 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 158 PM CDT Warm advection will kick in tonight as cool high pressure exits to the eastern Great Lakes region. Mid and high clouds from low pressure off the CA coast will stream east-southeast over the area tonight over a flattening ridge across the plains. With the increasing clouds expect temps to hold a tad warmer than last night. The developing warm front will shift northeast across the area later Thursday and Thursday night. Weak upper ridging and southeasterly flow maintaining drier lower level conditions will preclude more widespread shower activity.
This system will also bring gusty winds this afternoon and evening followed by much cooler temperatures Thursday. The large ridge axis is now east of our area, with an increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the deep trough now onshore near the west coast. Based on the track of the low a little north of our area, and the associated cold front now entering western Arizona, it looks like the best chances for precip for most of our area will be directly associated with the frontal passage tomorrow morning. The cooler air is still on track behind the front tomorrow.
315 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes and move off the SE coast Thursday night.
312 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this afternoon will slide southeast and crest over our region Thursday.
As high pressure footprint gets more established this afternoon expect gradient and wind speeds to weaken substantially. * None A large arctic high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior will drift across the state today and off to the east on Thursday.
151 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure building eastward will cause temperatures to become somewhat milder on Thursday.
Upper trough is positioned over California this afternoon with disturbance dropping south through it across NorCal.
117 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A large area of high pressure over the Great lakes will move eastward today and be centered over western Pennsylvania tonight.
348 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to shift to the east, and an upper-level ridge will move into the Northland from the west this evening. Southerly flow will bring an influx of warmer and more humid air into the Northland through tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover.
335 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure anchored across Lake Michigan will drift southeast this evening, allowing for a few cirrus clouds to gradually shift across south central Kentucky. While low temperatures should fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for much of eastern Kentucky, valley locales, especially in far eastern into northeastern Kentucky, will likely fall into the low to mid 20s. Moisture will increase Thursday as surface ridging shifts across the Appalachians and upper ridging slides overhead aloft. Increasing heights/thicknesses underneath the approaching ridge will warm temperatures into the 60s. Warm air advection Thursday evening/night will continue, leading to a much warmer night in the low-mid 40s.
135 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A cold front will push slowly southward through the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north this afternoon through Thursday. Warmer conditions will arrive this weekend as the high shifts well off in the Atlantic. High pressure will build into central NC this afternoon and tonight in the wake of the exiting cold front. While skies will become increasingly sunny, the low level cold air advection will deter warming. Yet, the actual lows should dip to freezing for several hours regardless. Lows Thursday night will again flirt with freezing in the south and likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s again across the north. coast, with mid level ridging moving across the area from west to east.
The increase in moisture will join upper level dynamics, as a mid- level closed low gets closer to the area, to allow for severe weather to become possible for the Panhandles. Models are still in a bit of disagreement over the exact track of the low. Short range models are indicating that the low may move more northerly than previously anticipated. Currently, we are still in a favorable enough position for storms, but if the low were to track much further north, we would end up dry slotted.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large ridge over the western half of the US running from the New Mexico through eastern Montana and up into central Saskatchewan. To the east a highly amplified trough of equal size runs from off the coast of British Columbia to off the coast of southern California. This afternoon and evening: Ridge will exit out of the area with a warm front moving across at the surface. The base of the trough off the coast of California will move inland and beginning transversing the Desert Southwest.
324 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 A large area of high pressure over the Great lakes will settle across the Mid-Atlantic Region for tonight and Thursday.
Regarding Thursday, did significantly reduce the mention of freezing rain as the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing rain. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be breezy and warmer conditions today, followed by a chance for light freezing rain late tonight south central. Currently, upper level ridge axis over the high plains building eastward. Strong southerly return flow across the Dakotas with high pressure over the Western Great Lakes region and a trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. WAA today as a warm front moves east across the region with the upper level ridging.
Mid level ridging will lie overhead, shifting slowly east toward the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support south southeast winds. The axis of a mid level trough will cross the four corners area tonight and Thurs. Gulf high pressure will retreat east slightly.
A deep upper-level trough currently along the Pacific coast will move across the Great Basin and desert southwest tonight, and into the 4-corners region during the day Thursday.
156 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Warmer temperatures will be in store starting Thursday as a warm front approached the region and brings a chance of showers with it Thursday night.
Sunshine has temps on a warmer trend for mid afternoon than previously forecast and winds are back to South at SHV the boundary is stalled over southern DeSoto and wash in place. The weak cold front that moved south of KSHV will washout later today, with southerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. /TW/ The back door cold front is weak, but still moving SW looking at surface gusts and visible imagery from NE TX back into central LA.
412 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a weak cold front from North Florida to Mississippi Coast to west central Louisiana. Upper air analysis showed a general northwest flow from East Coast to the Mississippi Valley, ridge axis over the Plains and vigorous wave approaching the West Coast.
1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplifying ridge transiting into the Plains ahead of a large East Pacific trough that is starting to to make landfall over the West Coast. The West Coast trough will be a driving factor in the weather through the rest of the work week and weekend. the West Coast trough will keep warm air advection prevailing across the Southern and Central Plains through the next 24 hours. showers, or drizzle, that may have started before sunrise, will likely move north through the day as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of the West Coast trough that will be digging into the Four Corners region. With the warm front moving north of Missouri Thursday afternoon, focus for precipitation will go with it, leaving Thursday night dry.
An upper ridge axis centered over West TX today will shift east with an upstream trough likely to increase southerly winds for Thursday.
428 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Tonight through Thursday afternoon, High pressure centered well to our north, will continue to build into the forecast area behind the cold front that now resides just south of the CWA. Therefore, look for cooler conditions across the CWA tonight, as lows range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
157 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure building eastward will cause temperatures to become somewhat milder on Thursday.
221 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure building eastward will cause temperatures to become somewhat milder on Thursday.
316 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. The center of the high pressure will move eastward overnight into the Middle Atlantic, shifting the winds to an easterly direction. Cooler (slightly below normal) high temperatures are anticipated for Thursday.
617 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes and move off the SE coast Thursday night.
/issued 1006 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017/ A northwest flow remains aloft across the state this morning as a trough swings into the east coast and ridging builds over Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico. Highs today will generally be in the lower 80s, although a bit cooler at the coast with the onshore flow.
Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing rain.
245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Strong high pressure to our east will move slowly away tonight, with a H5 ridge axis approaching from the west. We expect dry weather Thursday night as the H5 ridge moves across the area.
A Pacific storm system will move east across the Great Basin through Thursday, followed by a return of high pressure for the end of the work week.
/Issued 1041 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017/ High pressure will continue to build in today, while NW flow aloft continues.
129 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
211 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday.
325 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the region tonight and Thursday will result in drier conditions, lighter winds, and clearing skies.
219 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday.
The weak cold front that moved south of KSHV will washout later today, with southerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. /TW/ The back door cold front is weak, but still moving SW looking at surface gusts and visible imagery from NE TX back into central LA.
Quiet weather will rule as high pressure is in command. Warm advection and increasing moisture will continue Thursday night in advance of a warm front. A short period of freezing rain remains possible along the leading edge, mainly in the DuBois vicinity around midnight or so. Will continue with a low-confidence freezing rain mention and maintain the HWO mention as is.
CIGS will drop again overnight tonight into Thu morning as a warm front lifts back north across the state.
301 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Warmer temperatures will be in store beginning Thursday as a warm front approaches the region and brings a chance of showers with it Thursday night.
1150 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Upper ridge axis shifts slightly eastward today but still remains over the area resulting in above normal temperatures. So kept cooler temperatures in eastern areas while northeast Colorado will warm well into the 60s.
245 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 An arctic cold front moving across Vermont and New York during the pre-dawn hours will usher in much colder air today with strong and gusty northwesterly winds. High pressure in place for Thursday will result in lighter winds and moderating temperatures.
140 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with the next trough moving over the west coast. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west is resulting in gusty southerly winds across the western SD plains. Precipitation chances will increase overnight as upper trough approaches the region, mainly in the form of rain. Upper low will close off over CO, and precip will shift southeastward across the CWA as low gradually moves eastward into KS. Meanwhile, cooler air will filter in from the north.
924 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure over Newfoundland will continue to move slowly east through Friday. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the region through the weekend with much warmer weather.
1042 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A strengthening area of high pressure should lead to an extended stretch of warm temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and dry conditions today through the weekend.
/issued 448 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Water vapor imagery this morning shows the center of mid-level ridging nearly overhead. The 500mb ridge over Texas will slowly retrograde towards the north central Mexico and the Texas Big Bend Region through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Friday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West. The main forecast issue through the short term will be the high heat indices. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support moderate south-southeast winds today and Friday.
918 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure will drop southeast across the area today. a cold front will accompany the low as it moves through. High pressure will follow. Expect showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the late morning and afternoon across the area ahead of the low. This evening and overnight the low will continue southeast as high pressure builds from the northwest.
There will also be some spotty patchy fog until about sunrise with the high low level moisture, light winds, and stable air mass. Upper air analysis from 16/00z shows mid/upper level ridge centered across southeast Texas, and still building east into the forecast area, with height rises noted at 70H and 50H. The mid/upper level ridge will hold through Friday. The upper level ridge will retrograde to the west over the weekend.
Strong high pressure is centered over northern Mexico this morning with a trough over the northwest United States.
At the surface, a subtle front/trough extends through central SC & GA, into southern AL.
Low pressure is expected to track from MI this morning, to WV this evening, and to the coast by Friday morning. It will send a cold front south through our area late this afternoon and early this evening. Limited redevelopment is possible with heating on Friday, but activity would likely be capped in the mid levels, yielding just showers in the cooler and slightly drier air mass.
100 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure will drop southeast across the area today. a cold front will accompany the low as it moves through. High pressure will follow. Expect showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the late morning and afternoon across the area ahead of the low. This evening and overnight the low will continue southeast as high pressure builds from the northwest.
A strong short wave disturbance is on track to rotate around the base of the upper low and will help to enhance showers throughout today. East of the Cascades temperatures are in the middle 30s in spite of cloud cover and with some clearing we could see some temperatures decreasing to around freezing, especially north of Chiloquin where satellite imagery shows thinner cloud layer.
As mentioned above, the influx of drier air will begin to mix down into the lower levels heading toward the end of the work week. This will be aided by a very strong upper ridge pattern building from the srn Plains into the OH Valley/Great Lakes states. As this pattern evolves, a weak cold front will move swd through the local area Fri morning, with a few more showers/tstms possible along/just ahead of the approaching boundary. This sets the stage for what looks to be a very nice and seasonal weekend, as strong high pressure at the sfc builds swd along the Atlantic coastal states. Winds will become NW late in the TAF as cold front approaches from the north.
With an upper level low over the Pacific northwest and and upper ridge over the central Plains, southwesterly flow aloft should continue to be the story for the short term.
Brong Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into Friday.
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 The weather will be fair and seasonable through the weekend as high pressure dominates. Fair and dry weather is expected from tonight into the upcoming weekend as a sprawling ridge of high pressure settles across the northeast.
The high PoP areas are closest to the upper low/trough centered near the Oregon coast. The low will remain there through Friday and gradually fill, while 500 mb heights increase from the southeast. Friday will be about 10 degrees warmer than today just about everywhere. MAV guidance way be warming too fast Friday-- other MOS products and even the previous MAV were about 3 degs cooler than the new MAV.
1219 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Still expect some recovery in the airmass sufficient to support another round of storms after 19Z or so ahead of approaching low pressure, with the full spectrum of threats still possible. Activity will begin to die down after 06Z or so with loss of instability and the passage of the low. Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
Main concern continues to be hot and humid conditions for the next few days, as mid level heights increase, as a large ridge builds across the plains. As this ridge builds into the area, south- southwest flow will lead to very warm temperatures across the region for Today-Fri and possibly into Sat. The summer time temps arent the only issue, as surface dewpoints are expected to remain in the low-mid 70s for areas east of I-135, this will lead to heat index values climbing into the 107 to 110 range for this afternoon (possibly into Fri as well). Plan on keeping Fri-Sun mostly dry for now as the ridge remains across the area. Ketcham The hot and dry weather pattern will continue through the end of weekend as models show the upper level ridging remaining quite pronounced across the region.
Best chance for convection still looks to be northern areas closer to the approaching cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 73 90 68 / 20 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 84 64 / 20 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 93 70 84 65 / 20 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 65 80 59 / 40 30 40 10.
750 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Aviation Low pressure will produce clouds and scattered showers today along with cooler temperatures.
CAPES in the 3000 range and just enough shear (30-35 kt) should be enough to develop convection in a narrow zone just ahead of trough.
/ISSUED / Hot and humid continue to be the words of the day as area remains dominated by area of high pressure aloft.
Models have upper ridge building through central plains today but as it does another short wave currently poised over the western Great Lakes Region will take a dive this way during the day and drive a front down through Middle Tennessee tonight bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms tonight. As we go through the weekend upper ridge will build in across the area from the central and southern Plains.