Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds across the rest of the area will likely back from the west to the southeast this afternoon just as if a weak backdoor cold front was moving through.
However, wrap-around MVFR cigs around an approaching upper low pressure system along the Red River Valley into SE OK will shift SE into much of NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR prior to daybreak, which will eventually spread to much of the region through the remainder of the morning.
High pressure will prevail over the greater region today. For tonight, the high pressure will continue over the greater region. On Wednesday, a large upper level trof will being to carve out across the northern Rockies.
1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Key Message * Light to moderate rain continues through this evening * Dry and cool for mid week * Chance for light rain possible late week A deep trough over the southern High Plains will continue to dig eastward through the rest of the day. As the trough ejects through the southern Central Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley it will continue to produce light to moderate rain for the immediate forecast area. A head of the trough within the warm air advection zone light rain has commenced and will continue through the isentropic ascent process.
250 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure well northeast of the region, with a warm front to the northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough moving into the upper midwest, with near zonal flow from the northern high Plains to the Pacific NW.
255 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 The cold front that had helped to bring widespread showers across the area late yesterday is now over north-central Illinois early this morning per latest surface observations. Cooler than average temperatures make a return, with a chilly night ahead Tuesday night. Much cooler temperatures are expected today, with highs in the lower to middle 50s, with cool overnight lows in the middle 30s west to the upper 30s/lower 40s east, which are actually cooler than normal for this time of the year.
Stronger than forecast gap flow event is ongoing in this area ahead of a cold front that should arrive in the next hour or two. However, with that being said, new snowpack over Yellowstone and cooler temperatures is inducing tight pressure gradient over the Beartooths that will bring about this seasons first (of many) gap wind set-ups for the Livingston area, who will see gusts 50 to 55 mph this evening and overnight, decreasing late Tuesday morning. Impacts should be minimal, as road surfaces should stay just above freezing east along the foothills. Breezy west to northwest winds are the variable that will impact the lower elevations, with gusts 25-40 mph across the area.
The two main rain producing phases of this system are the low level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening then the baroclinic zone later Tuesday night into Midday Wednesday.
1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows the upper level trough axis shifting just east of the CWA. Portions of the northern Nebraska Panhandle including Chadron have been observing light snow, which will continue through late this afternoon on the backside of the low. As this low continues to shift east, height gradients will continue to tighten leading to the next high wind event for the wind-prone locations of southeast Wyoming. Upper trough moves into west central Wyoming Wednesday afternoon with snow developing over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges.
(Today and tonight) In the wake of the departing upper low, pleasant weather is expected for our area today, followed by a cool night tonight. The upper low was tracking along the Red River Valley during the post-Midnight hours, and will lift northeast into southeastern Missouri by late this afternoon. Ample sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the lower to mid 70s for highs across our area this afternoon.
316 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Widespread rain showers with pockets of heavy downpours are currently encompassing the western and central portions of Upper Michigan early this morning as a cold front continues its track across the area. Cold front inching its way eastward tonight at 0z Wednesday, coupled with increasing dynamics/fgen as a low further south lifts toward the Ohio River Valley will result in increasing shower activity across the eastern UP. Behind this over the west, the cooler air will build into the region, resulting in a dry and cooler night then the past couple. Expect the cooler and dry airmass to push east through the day Wednesday as high pressure begins to settle overhead.
A compact but strong low pressure system was over OK/TX this morning and will move to the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the low, south winds will quickly ramp up this morning. Showers and winds will diminish quickly tonight, then cooler air will arrive. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than normal with some lingering patches of clouds and perhaps even a stray sprinkle. Shower chances will rise for the weekend as another low pressure system crosses the region.
With the stacked ridging today, afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for late October, with highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. The cold front will approach the area by early Wednesday, bringing isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few storms, mainly for ares from around the Tampa Bay north through the Nature Coast.
The upper low over NM will quickly skirt eastward overnight across northern TX and OK, and should provide a bit more upper support to the precipitation along the frontal zone, especially in regions to the south and southwest of Arkansas.
Low clouds will increase in the northern half of the state due to the wave, and temperatures will be much cooler north (mid to upper 30s) compared to south (lower 50s along the SD border).
The upper-level low and associated surface cyclone will depart as it lifts to the northeast. As the surface cyclone departs, the surface pressure gradient will gradually relax, decreasing the winds through the day.
1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (The rest of tonight) The main concern overnight involves the second round of showers and thunderstorms set to move through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later tonight as the upper low currently in the Texas Panhandle moves through the area.
Today through Wednesday night A cold front is currently moving through northwest Nevada and will be moving southeastward through northeastern Nevada this morning.
The CWA stays in the warm sector for a good chunk of the day though, so with the decent mixing and warmer air aloft, blended in some NBM75 for highs, which puts most areas in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees. This high is right overhead overnight, with light winds and what should be mostly clear skies. Again, there could be some clouds along northern/northeastern portions of the CWA, but there seems to be enough radiational cooling potential to leverage some cooler end guidance for low temps. On Wednesday, southerly winds return as the high moves east and should be another day of temps in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.
1030 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Key Messages: - Rain diminishing by Tuesday morning as cold front passes - Remaining dry and seasonable through the end of October Tonight into Tuesday night: Rain along a passing cold front tonight With an anomalously moist air mass across the region this evening into tonight (pushing the climatological max compared to MPX and DVN soundings) rain showers will lift northeasterly as the cold front shifts from west to east. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal behind the cold front, with highs near 50 and lows in the mid 30s by Tuesday night.
* Seasonal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period, with low temperatures remaining above freezing. Large upper level trough across the central US will continue to bring precipitation to portions to the region today. Drier air will help promote deeper mixing, resulting in gustier winds and marginally warmer temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough skirting the Red River, and tilting negatively as it ejects into the MS Valley. Wednesday, temperatures rebound to near or above normal as the next trough approaches and flow aloft transitions to southwest. Leeside troughing on the Front Range will increase return flow in the east, while westerlies increase over the higher terrain out west.
927 PM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Forecast seems to be on track with showers still lingering over the forecast area this evening as an upper level low traverses the area. A cold front will continue to move across the area this afternoon and tonight. This front should bring snow to the highest passes with around 6 inches of snow at Crater Lake National Park through Wednesday morning.
(Today and tonight) On the heels of a tightly wound upper low that brought the first snowflakes of the season to places such as Friona and Lubbock airport last evening, widespread chilly temps in the 30s and lower 40s were in place. NBM's cooler highs look better than MOS in this setup, especially given our very moist soils over much of the region.
Ketcham A mid/upper trough over the Southern High Plains this evening will move eastward bringing another round of showers to southeast Kansas later tonight and into the morning hours on Tue.
310 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Clouds will thicken today, before showers move in tonight ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest.
1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Strong upper trough swinging across NM today moving into W TX this afternoon. Trough pushing a Pacific front through the area. Strong wind associated with this trough expected to mix down to the surface. Lows tonight will be about 20 degrees cooler with 30s across SE NM and higher elevations with 40s elsewhere.
Showers continued over mainly eastern WI, along and ahead of a cold front. Low pressure developing along the front in eastern OK and Arkansas will track northeast toward Lower MI this afternoon and evening. A few lingering showers will depart far eastern WI early Wednesday morning, followed by dry conditions and clearing skies as high pressure arrives in the afternoon. Lows tonight should range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas.
A potent upper level low nestled in the southern stream is located this morning across the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures through the period will generally remain unchanged with day time highs in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows will hold in the lower to mid 70s.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The cold front moved through this morning and we are seeing some gusty winds persisting, mainly over western counties at time of writing, but could still an increase in winds over the remainder of South Texas during the morning hours. As high pressure pushes in today, expect a pleasant day with high mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s. As the ridge shifts east of the region on Wednesday onshore flow will return.
Another cooldown is expected Wednesday as an inside slider trough enters the Great Basin. Before departing, the disturbance also managed to generate strong winds across the Tulare and Kern County Mountains while also keeping some of the district dry and cooler. Ensemble error spread does grow during the latter part of the week, yet, that spread is within the ball-park of being able to reach the lower 70s (near normal) later in the week. Orographic support may allow the Sierra Nevada to receive what the lower elevation may not see. La Nina still dominates the region, but with the break-down of the blocking high, precipitation is only a matter of time before the valley seeâs rain.
On Wednesday, a trough and associated front will lift north across the region and result in scattered precipitation during the day.
1049 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Clouds will thicken today, before showers move in tonight ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest.
226 AM MST Tue Oct 25 2022 Weak high pressure and dry conditions will prevail over the next several days with the coolest temperatures being seen today.
656 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Clouds will thicken today, before showers move in tonight ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest.
Minor winds will continue along with increasing temperatures until Wednesday then a passing low pressure system drops through the region Wednesday night.
Weak high pressure and dry conditions will prevail over the next several days with the coolest temperatures being seen today.
756 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Widespread rain showers with pockets of heavy downpours are currently encompassing the western and central portions of Upper Michigan early this morning as a cold front continues its track across the area. Cold front inching its way eastward tonight at 0z Wednesday, coupled with increasing dynamics/fgen as a low further south lifts toward the Ohio River Valley will result in increasing shower activity across the eastern UP. Behind this over the west, the cooler air will build into the region, resulting in a dry and cooler night then the past couple. Expect the cooler and dry airmass to push east through the day Wednesday as high pressure begins to settle overhead.
Water vapor imagery highlights a narrow ridge axis extending north into the southeastern United States. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled falling heights at all SGLs, with the potent mid-latitude cyclone nearing the Mississippi carving out lower heights to its east. Gentle to moderate northeast breezes will diminish today into tonight as high pressure nestles across South Florida and the Keys.
A trough will drop down from the northwest tonight and bring some light rain to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties.
605 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough skirting the Red River, and tilting negatively as it ejects into the MS Valley. Wednesday, temperatures rebound to near or above normal as the next trough approaches and flow aloft transitions to southwest. Leeside troughing on the Front Range will increase return flow in the east, while westerlies increase over the higher terrain out west.
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Widespread light showers continue to move to the northeast across the forecast area early this morning along and just ahead of the cold front that extends from northwestern IL south southwestward just west of KFYG and just south of KSGF as of 07z.
But even if precip lingers and does move into the region, temps above freezing should favor light rain over snow. Upper trough axis continues to move east across the CWA early this morning. Light rates and sfc temps above freezing will negate any impacts from this precip. Behind the departing trough, another weak and subtle wave moves into ND out of SK ahead of cooling temps aloft. At this time, we're not anticipating this activity to be impactful due to light rates, sparse coverage, and temps near or above freezing, should this activity even push into our area at all.
452 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure well northeast of the region, with a warm front to the northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough moving into the upper midwest, with near zonal flow from the northern high Plains to the Pacific NW.
The cold front that had helped to bring widespread showers across the area late yesterday is now over north-central Illinois early this morning per latest surface observations. Cooler than average temperatures make a return, with a chilly night ahead Tuesday night. Much cooler temperatures are expected today, with highs in the lower to middle 50s, with cool overnight lows in the middle 30s west to the upper 30s/lower 40s east, which are actually cooler than normal for this time of the year.
However, impressive moisture transport across the region was underway, and surface dew points in the lower 60s have reached northwest AL.
A weakening upper low slides southeastward through the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation totals will be light overall with the highest totals across north-central Idaho, where 3-5 inches of snow are anticipated above 4000 feet. Snow levels will range from 3000-3500 feet in western Montana on Wednesday morning, thus the lower valleys from I-90 southward may see a dusting and a few slick roads.
527 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Storm has exited to the east with high pressure moving over eastern Montana. The remainder of the week will see slowly warming temperatures and dry weather as an upper low drops across the Pacific Northwest and digs toward the southern Plains. By the end of the week a flat ridge will push into Montana, with temperatures jumping above normal for the weekend.
542 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today and tonight) On the heels of a tightly wound upper low that brought the first snowflakes of the season to places such as Friona and Lubbock airport last evening, widespread chilly temps in the 30s and lower 40s were in place. NBM's cooler highs look better than MOS in this setup, especially given our very moist soils over much of the region.
Baker (Today through Wednesday) Main focus remains on a rather high amplitude upper cutoff low that is progged to sling a translated sfc occluded/cold front across the area primarily this evening into the early morning hours. Aloft we mainly transition to zonal flow though will be a cooler day with many areas in the north only making it to the mid 60s.
1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today and tonight) On the heels of a tightly wound upper low that brought the first snowflakes of the season to places such as Friona and Lubbock airport last evening, widespread chilly temps in the 30s and lower 40s were in place. NBM's cooler highs look better than MOS in this setup, especially given our very moist soils over much of the region.
150 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Northeast Montana is in a NW flow today that will transition to a split flow tomorrow (Wednesday) as a trough off the Pacific NW coast cuts off a bit and drops off to our south across the central Rockies. With the snowcover decreasing over the next couple of days, high temperatures should be warmer so had to adjust in these areas.
353 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) The upper trough has passed to the east of the region and westerly upper winds are over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. An upper trough will dig southward on Wednesday night to around the Four Corners Region.
Clearing from west to east is expected this evening into tonight which will allow temps to fall into the low 30s for most, a few locations across west- central Wisconsin may dip into the upper 20s.
Turning Wet and Cooler Tonight. A slow moving cold front will cross northern Michigan tonight. This front is trailing from low pressure over Hudson Bay, with its movement slowed by another low traveling up the front from the mid-Mississippi Valley. The rainfall and colder air moving in behind the front will see most areas seeing overnight lows at least 10 degrees cooler than last night, but this is still about 10 degrees warmer that normal. A cold front associated with an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay will continue to drag slowly through northern Michigan through Wednesday morning/early afternoon. diminishing from west to east throughout the day as high pressure and much drier air begins to build over the Great Lakes. This high pressure will dominate northern Michigan's weather through the end of this forecast period and beyond.
A wind shift to southwest will be followed by a second wind shift to northwest behind the cold front.
205 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler weather has moved east of our area and will leave near normal highs behind it.
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
A few of the high res models showing trace amounts of precipitation but thinking mostly virga with those ceilings and dry low levels. Lows will be in the lower 30s. Clouds will persist through Wednesday as the upper low moves from the Pacific northwest to western Colorado. Highs will be similar to today in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer over the Rio Grande plains Wednesday, while readings will be similar for the coastal plains. Lows will be 7-10 degrees warmer Wednesday night as onshore flow continues.
331 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the southern plains which is embedded in a deep trough over the plains. The closed low heads northeast into the Ohio Valley by 12z Wed while the trough axis heads east towards the upper Great Lakes. Key Messages: -Cold front and showers hanging around Wed. -Fog possible Thurs AM -High pressure, dry zonal flow thru weekend -Potential pattern break after Halloween The cold front continues its slow roll through the UP, and the slowing trend in the models continues. A secondary low along the frontal boundary will be passing northeast through the Lower Peninsula and far northern Lake Huron on Wednesday, which will serve to keep the pressure gradient tight in the east half of the UP and the eastern zones of Lake Superior Wednesday.
Otherwise, mid afternoon surface analysis had the cold front over our eastern Mississippi counties. This cold front will shift east during the next hour or two and cooler and much drier air will filter into our CWA. This cooler airmass will lead to cooler than normal morning lows Wednesday in the 40s. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over southern Missouri. This closed low will track east northeast tonight and over the Ohio valley by Wednesday morning. This will allow our winds aloft to become near zonal Wednesday as surface ridging shifts east over our CWA.
103 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Rain is forecast starting late tonight and continuing through Wednesday as low pressure and a frontal boundary pass through.
A degree or two warmer today across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints near or just above 70. Pacific short waves will bombard the CONUS in roughly zonal flow, while a lengthy trough axis to the east of the Bahamas draws tropical moisture poleward towards Bermuda. The Keys will remain within the northeast quadrant of mean layer ridging anchored over Mexico and Central America, with low level kinematics remaining weak and BL moisture struggling to recover.
Ketcham Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low rotating across the Ozark region with a much weaker piece of energy tracking across the Northern Rockies and about to move into the Northern High Plains. Strong zonal upper flow will setup across the Plains for Wed in the wake of the upper low.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall off into the lower to mid 40s overnight.
337 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Issued 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure will slightly deepen as it moves from se MO into srn IL late this afternoon. Afterward, the low will slightly fill and become more broad as a weak occlusion occurs. The broad low will be located over ern Lower MI by 12Z Wed, with the upper low along the IN and Ohio border. Large scale subsidence will clear the skies for Wed and temps will rebound into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure and cool temps then expected for Wed nt.
Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today for most, with mid 70s across our Texas counties and upper 60s to near 70 for much of the rest of the area.