Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION.
Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approching the area from the northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to our northern CWA.
354 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION.
WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON SATURDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE PRECIP FOR A WHILE AT LEAST.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH.
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS LOWER. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. LOOK FOR COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES.
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHICH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE STATE. THE BEST INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEVADA. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWFA.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. A NEW SHORT WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST HURRAH OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR A WHILE.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH A TROF OVER C TX. SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND FLORIDA AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
322 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
KGUY HAS THE LOWEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
408 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER ONE LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AS WE DRY OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP RIDGING, THE DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 90S EAST.
431 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY 300 AM EDT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. CL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST.
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS.
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
80 INCHES THIS AFTN WITH NO CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. STILL HAVE INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT CUMULUS BUILDUPS AGAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
244 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
AS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI. UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
25/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR DATA IN SUGGESTING THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEGINNING IN THE 25/06-09Z TIME FRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM TO BECOME ESTABLISHED MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT 25/10Z. QUITE COMPLEX FCST THRU TONIGHT AS MAIN ISSUES ARE DETERMINING PCPN TIMING THEN CHANCE OVER FROM FREEZING TO FROZEN.
COLD FRONT IS STILL WITHIN THE FCASTED TIME FRAME AND ALL FCASTED VARIABLES LOOK GOOD.
At the surface, low pressure centered near Elkhart KS will slide east across KS and then northeast into MO on Monday in tandem with the wave aloft. A Pacific cold front trailing south of the low will sweep across the region during the day on Monday. Moderate low level southerly flow will eventually bring shallow layer of moisture in to the area ahead of the associated cold front tonight. Not a major cool down behind the Pacific cold front.
328 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 Upper level trough is moving through the central Plains this morning. This will drag a cold front across the CWA today however, with shallow moisture and weak forcing precipitation will be pretty meager with this system. Model soundings are suggesting mainly light drizzle developing through the morning hours with the potential for the drizzle to be of the freezing variety across northeastern Missouri where temperatures are hovering right around freezing. Tonight the upper level trough will rotate through the area with CAA at the surface on the back side of the cold front. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week as clouds and continued CAA will hold temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
327 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT.
1020 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through Monday night bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog.
FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES WILL PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE PROCESS.
1221 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALLOWING SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN UPSLOPE WINDS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST ENTERED WESTERN COLORADO.
AND TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW WILL MAINLY BE LIQUID AS MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN HIGHS BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE DRIZZLE AS HIGHS COULD RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. AFTER THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS THE DYNAMICS FROM THE MAIN LOW WILL FACTOR IN AS A VIGOROUS POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS TILTS THE SCALES INTO ISSUING A HEADLINE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A GLAZING ON THE ROADS FOLLOWED BY SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND STALL OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 06Z TAF PD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 931 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BEFORE DAYBREAK.
432 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH DRIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
A weak cold front moving south through the area will shift surface winds to the northwest later this morning. For Monday, a cold front will move south across the area during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Big Country to the lower 70s across the Northwest Hill Country.
Upper ridge moves overhead Monday and will maintain dry weather for the region through much of the upcoming week with the main weather impact likely to be late night and morning valley fog.
A SECOND AREA OF WEAK ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROF AXIS IS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
This high should continue to shift east by sunrise, with light return flow beginning at the surface and warming temperatures just above the near-surface layer. A warmer day is expected as compared to yesterday, with highs in the low-mid 60s.
1001 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SASK TO TX PANHANDLE. ALSO WILL ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FEATURE IN SOME REGARD MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FA BY MID EVENING. GOOD THING THIS TIME TOO IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE SO NO BLOWING TO WORRY ABOUT.
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REEVALUATE LATER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE PROCESS. STALLEY MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
321 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 A WEAK TROUGH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft should keep the region dry through tonight. Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast on Monday as a system lifting northeast out of the central plains pulls a cold front toward the area. In the last 2-3 hours of the Monday night period all precipitation should be east of our area by the time temperatures drop below freezing. Beyond that high pressure should keep the region dry through the rest of the period.
200 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM WITH INLAND AREAS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY. WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY. WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY.
BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR LIQUID TO REFREEZE. ROAD SURFACES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING WITH ROADS BECOMING ICY. CURRENTLY ROAD SURFACES ARE DRY AND ABOVE FREEZING BUT DEPENDING ON THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WHEN THE SNOW STARTS FALLING.
A few isolated showers will be possible across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning ahead of cold front before boundary pushes east of the area by mid afternoon.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
306 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE SNOW COVER DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR CSV AND EVEN INTO THE MID 40S NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
WILL SEE ALL AREAS DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AS CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HOLD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE.
The cloud cover is keeping temperatures up, with readings in the lower and middle 50s as of 11 PM. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower and middle 40s for most areas, except across far southwest sections where some readings in the upper 30s will occur. For Monday, a cold front will move south across the area during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Big Country to the lower 70s across the Northwest Hill Country.
A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO ALABAMA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST. WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP. WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST.
340 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST HOWEVER.