Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 927 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LA/MS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EAST WITH A SE RETURN FLOW RESUMING ACROSS SE TX. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MUCH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MON MORNING. IN THE LOWER 40S C LA TO THE UPPER 50S SE TX. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON. WITH CLEARING BY WED AS THE HIGH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. DML WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
945 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PHASED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SEPARATE VORT CENTERS IN THE TROUGH WILL CONCENTRATE LIFT IN DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE FA.
LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS A RICH STREAM OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
345 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
1131 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 /18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT ON NORTHERLY WINDS HOWEVER. BROADER UPPER TROUGH.
1234 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
12z soundings sampled impressive low level warming which will allow for noticeably warmer temps this afternoon.
341 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
115 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG & AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT'LL BE PUSHING THRU THE REGION.
448 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S AT COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AND A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET GUIDANCE FALLS IN LINE WITH THIS LOCAL SCHEME. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PROVIDES A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
224 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK.
1259 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING ON TO THE EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S. INCREASING MIXING TONIGHT WILL YIELD MUCH WARMER MINS AND CONTD DRY AS RTN MSTR TONGUE AHD OF PLAINS LOW HOLDS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND RAPIDLY DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A DECENT THETA-E SURGE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MODEST 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING ABOVE 4 G/KG AT THAT LEVEL. COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP RIGHT AT THE ONSET BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
1015 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PHASED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SEPARATE VORT CENTERS IN THE TROUGH WILL CONCENTRATE LIFT IN DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE FA.
1102 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND SHOULD REACH NEAR 50 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHILE THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY WITH AREA IN WARM ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
17Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE IN SE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN.
1128 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 Today will see warming temperatures as an upper level ridge slides across the region. Southerly winds will also help bring a warmer air mass into the Ozarks for today and tonight. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 40s across the area with some locations around and south of Joplin reaching into the lower 50s. A weak cold front will approach the Ozarks Monday morning and make its way through the area through the day.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
313 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING ON TO THE EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S. HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ORTHOGONAL FLOW ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES PROVIDE ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT.
154 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY.
THIS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BRINGS STRATOCU WITH LOW END VFR CIGS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MORNING HOURS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
1136 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN ARE CURRENTLY IN A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDS WEST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND IN THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MSL AT AROUND 15Z MONDAY AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER SHOULD MAKE IT TO HSV TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. FAST MOVING AND PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROF CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE AZ/NM BORDER. DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROF HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS AS OF 2 PM. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CUMULUS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THERE WERE NO RADAR ECHOES CLOSE TO OUR AREA WITH THIS TROF PASSAGE. H5 HEIGHTS FALLS WERE IN 80M OR HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AND WITH FULL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT CENTRAL DESERT HIGHS TODAY TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S WITH WARMER WESTERN DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 70.
1227 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
1240 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
327 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY LOBE INDICATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THIS PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THE TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW.
344 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.
247 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY.
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MONDAY DAYTIME REMAINS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR A BETTER CHUNK OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL AND WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING.
Satellite fog product showed some areas of stratus/fog earlier (before the higher clouds moved in) across the northern Sacramento Valley and portions of the northern Sierra foothills. Today's system weakens as it moves over the eastern Pacific ridge across NorCal today. Ridge moves onto the West Coast Monday and will maintain dry weather for the region through much of the upcoming week with the main weather impact likely to be late night and morning valley fog. High pressure then builds into California later Monday through at least midweek. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are likely.
A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD E INTO DEEP E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SE INTO WRN AR/EXTREME NE TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH WARMER/DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MIXING EWD INTO NE TX/SE OK/SW AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IS REINFORCED SEWD MONDAY NIGHT BY ADDITIONAL COLDER AIR THAT WILL BE DRAWN SWD BY A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH E OF THE ROCKIES THAT WILL DIG SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER LARGE SCALE FORCING SUCH THAT SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST MONDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA.
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SO THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD AND WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUMS OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING HERE. FURTHER SOUTH OVER INLAND AREAS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS SHIFTING EWD INTO AL/MS. MODELS SHOW THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO SRN FL. AS SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTN SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE LOWEST LEVELS FOR ENHANCING THE FROST POTENTIAL. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OVER THE SE ZONES. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST AS WATER TEMPS HAVE BEEN RECORDED NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
244 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
1019 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO INDICATE THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EAST COAST STORM LIFTING OFF-SHORE ALLOWING THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH TO PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND. THE DERIVED GOES PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING IN WITH MAIN SYSTEM. QG PROGS SUGGEST TWO PIECES OF ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH WHILE TO OUR WEST. BEFORE THE SPLIT THE NORTHERN ENERGY WILL FOCUS WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO SUPPLY LIFT TO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME STRICTLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH CENTRAL SAWATCH/ELKS WILL BE THE FOCUS.
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM OMAHA TO DENVER. BULK OF ENERGY ON THE ERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL RACE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE WRN END WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD FROM ITS SUNDAY AFTN POSITION OFF THE OREGON COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND SNOW HAS PICKED UP AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECAME ESTABLISHED. SNOW CONTINUES SOUTH DOWN I-15 TO ALMOST CEDAR CITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX IN THE SRN END OF THE UPPER TROF AND KEPT EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. ONE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE IN THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES TO THE MTNS AND WRN VALLEYS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE CWA AND SHUTS IT ALL DOWN BY TUE AFTN.
AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE THREAT OF BLACK ICE/REFREEZING ISSUES IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MAKING FOR AN EVEN WARMER DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BRING MOISTURE INTO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR. AND WARMER DAYS.
Large temperature gradient across SW KS this afternoon, with NE zones struggling to get out of the 30s, while Elkhart is in the lower 60s as of noon. Strong NW winds of 20-35 mph and associated cold air advection will keep afternoon temperatures primarily in the low to mid 40s. The upper level trough will move out of the area Monday with a dome of high pressure building into western Kansas behind the aforementioned cold front.
431 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE THE COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY AND TAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY. A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY HARNEY COUNTY. AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL USHER IN AN INVERSION THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEK. AND ALSO IN THE VALLEYS OF BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT.
1248 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN ARE CURRENTLY IN A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDS WEST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND IN THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
315 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 QUITE COMPLEX FCST THRU TONIGHT AS MAIN ISSUES ARE DETERMINING PCPN TIMING THEN CHANCE OVER FROM FREEZING TO FROZEN.
Issued 230 AM EST Tue Dec 29 2015 The synoptic pattern early this morning features a rather deep trough across the central CONUS, with downstream ridging just off the east coast. For tonight, the aforementioned PV anomaly will eject northeast through the trough into the Midwest. Therefore, will favor the drier hi-res solutions and just keep slight chance/chance precip chances going for precip late tonight into Wednesday, with the highest chances in the Lake Cumberland region.
654 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TODAY AND RACE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY.
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS ALOFT. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, SEVERAL INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN AREAS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
SO WILL MAKE SURE TOO KEEP A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE LIGHT SNOW MENTION ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A PIECE OF THE WEST TO EAST ELONGATED UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO GET EJECTED FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
A STALLED FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS REACHED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO WEST OF THE YUCATAN AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CROSSED THE STATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EAST GULF.
1040 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL RACE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
711 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS LATER TODAY GENERATINGAREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. /ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN YUMA AND BLYTHE. A CHILLY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 49 58 43 / 10 60 100 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 47 59 43 / 10 30 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 47 57 42 / 10 30 90 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 46 60 42 / 20 20 90 40 NC.
302 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AROUND 5K-10K AGL AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THESE PLACES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO BETTER MIXING AS THE LOCALLY SHALLOW ARCTIC-LIKE AIR WILL ERODE AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE TYPE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WITH MODEST ADVECTION WILL COLLAPSE WHILE WAKE-FILLING BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TELECONNECTION VOID FOR FALLING HEIGHTS AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS THIS EVENING. DENSE AT TIMES WHEN NOT RAINING BUT MIXING TO FOGGY RAIN ONCE THE WARMER RAINFALL BECOMES DOMINANT.
AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DECEMBER 2015 COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT JACKSON EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH. BUT EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA HELPING TO SHUT OFF THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND READINGS WOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST IF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE.
/ISSUED 433 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
540 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TO THE STATE IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AROUND 650 MB THAT HAD WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS BACK WEST NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN IA. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS.
Weak ridging aloft was over the Central Plains behind the old upper low moving across the Great Lakes and another trough digging into southern Arizona. Local surface pressure gradient continues to weaken with ridge from Dakotas south into east Texas. 9 satellite imagery showing some thinning and breaks in the prevalent low cloud just east the ridge axis. Kept highs on the higher side of guidance with similar thoughts on the snow field being much shallower than models believe with some scattered clearing anticipated.