Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures should be cooler today than yesterday behind the front as most places should expect upper 70s by mid afternoon. Winds should become light this evening, and clear skies will help low temperatures get into the lower 50s across the area.
Winds should diminish across the entire forecast area by sunset as the Low finally moves far enough east. Low temperatures Saturday night will also be quite chilly as the Low pulls down cold Canadian air. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.
High pressure will remain over the Atlantic with a mainly east to southeast flow. Saturday looks to have the highest PWs with much of the area above 1.
Today and tonight: An intense, deep-layer cyclone over the mid-MO Valley early this morning will continue east-northeast into southern MN/northern IA today. Given the mature state of the extra-tropical cyclone, precipitation within the cold-conveyor airstream now encompasses the western semicircle of the synoptic system. Strong pressure/height gradients on the backside of the departing cyclone will yield strong northwest winds, especially over northeast NE where gusts of 50-55 mph are possible today.
- Cooler, mostly cloudy, and damp for much of this weekend.
Isolated to widely sct convection may develop by mid to late morning across portions of NE TX/SW AR ahead of a cold front that will drift SE into these areas through the afternoon, and thus have added VCSH/VCTS to the affected terminals.
Reimer Satellite imagery showing a deep upper low moving across southern Wyoming and shifting into the central plains. Strong upper divergence, combined with surface convergence along an inverted trough over central and eastern Montana, was creating widespread areas of rain and showers across southern Montana and northern Wyoming. The precipitation has been mainly rain across the lower elevations, with snow above 5500 feet. Saturday will be dry as an upper ridge slides in.
Fog is not expected tonight but some IFR ceilings could develop along the highway 84 corridor.
222 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Aviation -- High Fire Danger -- Dissipation of thicker mid level cloud deck earlier has allowed for warmer temps and lower humidities this afternoon, with most sites now seeing RH values of 15-25 percent. Thunder threat may exist as the low level jet ramps up and a few hundred joules of cape arrive, but the best instability stays south of Michigan.
This activity will continue to diminish, before daytime atmospherics change for the approaching cold front. Cooler/drier post frontal air begins to settle in tonight, as dew points drop thru the 50s and temps soon follow.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the middle 60s across southern Michigan to the lower 70s into west central Indiana.
Multiple batches of rain pivoting around a large upper level low pressure circulation over eastern Nebraska. As the low slides east, the pressure gradient on the back side of it will tighten up, resulting in some hefty winds across the western and central parts of the CWA starting late tonight and continuing through the day Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
453 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure centered to the southeast of the Carolinas supports moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. A broad upper level trough reaches south through the Gulf of Mexico into the Western Caribbean. 8" PW from the central Bahamas, west into the Straits and the Lower Keys.
These locations could see another inch or more by the time the low finally kicks out into southeastern Minnesota tonight. Across the far west, we will see decreasing clouds in the afternoon which could bump highs up into the low to mid 50s here.
Light winds will increase Saturday from the south to southwest 10 to around 15 mph with some higher gusts as a warm front lifts across the region.
Severe parameters are most impressive in the lowest levels (0-1km) with 30-40 kts of bulk shear magnitude and 200-300 m2/s2 of helicity with a clockwise turning hodograph.
218 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 The passage of a cold front today will bring with it more showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe this afternoon. This is expected to move east and out of the forecast area this morning, while the cold front itself makes a delayed entry from the northwest. With a 4 to 6 hour window between when the initial rainfall exits and the forcing associated with the cold front arrives, it seems likely that we will be able to destabilize again with surface based instability developing ahead of the front.
1157 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Mid/upper level clouds will continue to thicken overnight into Saturday as high pressure shifts east and a storm system tracks from the central plains into the upper midwest. Dewpoints increase late, into the low-mid 50s, but marginal instability still remains elevated in nature.
(Today and Tonight) Convective line associated with the passing cold front will continue eastward in a gradually weakened state through early morning.
but chances for SHRA/TSRA will increase throughout the period as a cold front moves into the state. Expect improving condtions for some sites behind the cold front as more stable air arrives.
The upper level low that moved through Nebraska today will continue to gain strength as it heads into the Upper Mississippi Valley Today. This will also be seen at the surface as the area of low pressure moves into Iowa. Meanwhile, high pressure on the back side of this system will continue to influence western Kansas bringing strong northwesterly winds throughout the day.
1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 As expected, mid/upper level negatively tilted trough moving into the central Plains. SPC meso-analysis indicates CAPE of 3000+ near the warm front and deep layer shear of 40 KTS. Wrap around moisture is expected on the backside of a mid-level closed low developing in the base of the aforementioned trough for overnight tonight into Saturday. ECMWF wind gusts and hi- res models indicate that the high wind warning may not be quite far enough east on the Nebraska side, especially north of Interstate 80.
Upper ridge moves in this afternoon which will diminish the chances for light rain.
Satellite imagery indicated the upper low was over Nebraska in the early morning hours. However, this will continue to decrease as a ridge builds in from the west today. There may be a few showers or sprinkles lingering in a narrow band from Custer to Carter county today thanks to weakened instability from that thermal trough, but otherwise we should see a dry and relatively seasonal day with highs in the 50s.
The lingering effects of surface ridging in the region leaves a corridor of sub-1-inch PWAT values along the Lower Mississippi River Valley early this morning, but a disturbance spinning just offshore the Florida Panhandle has helped to nudge greater moisture content north along the MS/AL border. Then by this evening, a cold front with combined outflow from ongoing storms to our northwest should dip into the Delta.
/issued 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Weak 500 mb ridging will continue over the Lone Star State today and tonight, placing the BRO CWFA in a northwest-to-southeast mid-level flow and resulting in dry weather. However, the movement of a mid-level trough into west Texas will generate isolated convection on Sunday, solely west of the Interstate 69C corridor.
428 AM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Transitory upper level ridge across the area today, while next major trough to impact the state begins to move onshore in the Pacific NW this afternoon. Winds farther west will be relatively light compared to the past several days, as mid level flow under the ridge is fairly weak, and expect mainly afternoon upslope breezes at most locations, with gusts staying near/under 20 mph. Tonight, upper ridge shifts east with mid/upper level flow becoming more s- swly toward Sunday morning as trough digs into the Great Basin.
The region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system this afternoon and the only lifting mechanism will be surface heating. Light winds will increase today from the south to southwest 10 to around 15 mph with some higher gusts as a warm front lifts across the region. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 80 60 85 / 20 40 70 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 62 79 59 83 / 10 20 70 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 77 57 83 / 10 30 80 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 57 78 57 80 / 20 20 80 30 10.
Today and Tonight: An upper trough will will pass through the region with little fanfare as moisture associated with this system remains over the Pacific Northwest. Seasonal temperatures should prevail with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s for the inland valleys to the lower and mid 60s along the coast and bays.
1016 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 High pressure will remain in control over the area for the next several days, with ample moisture to support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, with the greatest chances south, mainly along sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Have upped the highs a bit into the upper 80s near the coast but forecast is otherwise on track. High pressure will keep E/SE flow in place for the next several days, with a weak afternoon sea breeze each day near the coast and scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms.
Saturday will be warmer with increasing moisture but should be dry.
925 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A front will waver across southern NC through tonight, then retreat north into VA on Sunday as a warm front.
857 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Rain continues to have a hard time pushing west through dry air and appears to have mostly stalled east of the Highway 83 corridor. However, CAMs remain optimistic that rain will fill back in across the Highway 83 corridor later this morning. These locations could see another inch or more by the time the low finally kicks out into southeastern Minnesota tonight. Across the far west, we will see decreasing clouds in the afternoon which could bump highs up into the low to mid 50s here. Cloudy conditions will linger east on Sunday but ridging will move into the west, bringing with it a partly sunny sky.
Short wave ridging should help to support a period of warm and dry weather through Sunday afternoon with daytime highs likely climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the area.
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A cold front will push SE into the state through this afternoon. Expect improving conditions behind the cold front as more stable air filters into the state tonight into early Sun. Today Through Sunday Night Regional radar imagery showed some isolated SHRA/TSRA across NWRN/NRN sections early this morning well ahead of a cold front to the NW of AR. More organized convection is ongoing along that cold front. the best chances will be along the cold front this afternoon as the cold front interacts with increasingly unstable air ahead of said front. Cannot rule out a brief tornado or two either given slightly curved hodographs at the lowest 1 km. chances for convection return to the forecast late Sun night as this front lifts back north as a warm front Sun night into Mon.
Today and tonight: An intense, deep-layer cyclone over the mid-MO Valley early this morning will continue east-northeast into southern MN/northern IA today. Given the mature state of the extra-tropical cyclone, precipitation within the cold-conveyor airstream now encompasses the western semicircle of the synoptic system. Strong pressure/height gradients on the backside of the departing cyclone will yield strong northwest winds, especially over northeast NE where gusts of 50-55 mph are possible today. Sunday: The low pressure system will shift in the upper Great Lakes on Sunday with the pressure gradient relaxing by afternoon into the evening.
However, CAMs remain optimistic that rain will fill back in across the Highway 83 corridor later this morning. These locations could see another inch or more by the time the low finally kicks out into southeastern Minnesota tonight. Across the far west, we will see decreasing clouds in the afternoon which could bump highs up into the low to mid 50s here. Cloudy conditions will linger east on Sunday but ridging will move into the west, bringing with it a partly sunny sky.
This line is associated with the prefrontal trough ahead of an approaching cyclone but is expected to dissipate as well. Point soundings depict a capped environment throughout the Mid-South at this time, but a secondary PV anomaly will rotate around the base of the Midwest trough this afternoon, providing large-scale forcing for ascent to cool mid-level temperatures. Storms are likely to weaken during the late evening and overnight period as they move into an less favorable environment with drier air advecting into the CWA behind a cold front. Temperatures won't be affected much with highs generally in the lower 80s.
630 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 A front will waver across southern NC through tonight, then retreat north into VA on Sunday as a warm front.
816 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warmer temperatures with showers and thunderstorms chances increasing tonight into Sunday. High pressure will maintain dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. This will also yield warmer temperatures as we lose the wild diurnal swings. A few strong storms are possible with model progged moderate shear, instability, and dry mid level air enhancing the wind gust and large hail potential ahead of the cold front. The setup featuring a closed low aloft and a jet streak rounding the trough into the OH Valley will bring divergence aloft to the region. This, combined with decent PVA into the region will lead to frontogenesis as the surface cold front strengthens.
612 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 (Today and Tonight) Convective line associated with the passing cold front will continue eastward in a gradually weakened state through early morning.
418 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 The main feature impacting weather across the area today is the area of low pressure continuing east northeast into Iowa today and toward the Great Lakes Sunday. Wrap around moisture on the backside of this low is producing beneficial rainfall to much of the outlook area this morning.
Sunny skies will reign supreme with high pressure situating over the region through the weekend. An stacked low pressure system continues to reside near Nova Scotia but an approaching upper level ridge will finally displace this feature into the central Atlantic as the blocking pattern finally begins to break down. Another mostly sunny day is expected across the region as high pressure becomes entrenched. The upper level ridge axis will move overhead and bring a beautiful spring day to the region on Sunday. Sunday night should remain dry for the most part, but increasing clouds will keep our temperatures warmer and close to seasonal normals for early May.
A low pressure system passing by to the north will bring stronger winds to the area on Sunday, leading to increased fire danger. Early morning satellite loop showed cirrus moving in from the west ahead of a trough axis extending south from deep low pressure nearing the Pacific Northwest. The light winds won't last long though, as surface pressure gradients reverse and upper level winds increase this afternoon in response to the low entering the PacNW. As this low digs southeastward into Utah Sunday, it will drag a cold front through the southern Great Basin in the morning and through the Mojave Desert in the afternoon and evening. Humidity could also be marginal in the higher elevations of the Spring Mountains and the Sheep Range, but will be lower in the foothills.
Minnesota and Wisconsin will be on the cooler northern side of this low, meaning any surface based instability and potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is unlikely.
Rain/snow showers are forecast to move into the Central Mntns early this afternoon and then overspread the rest of SE Idaho by this eve, with the heaviest/most widespread precip late tonight and Sun as this closed low tracks just to our south across nrn NV/UT. 10" in the lower Snake Plain to 0.
While cloudy skies remain, temperatures are expected to reach back into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area with far NW MO around 60F and central MO in the low to mid 70s. The pressure gradient remains quite tight as the low pressure center passes to the north keeping winds gusty through Saturday and Sunday with generally westerly winds around 15-20 MPH gusting to 25-35 MPH Saturday and 25-30 MPH Sunday. Another wave from the west CONUS spins up a leeward surface cyclone this time across the southern Plains.
627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 The main feature impacting weather across the area today is the area of low pressure continuing east northeast into Iowa today and toward the Great Lakes Sunday. Wrap around moisture on the backside of this low is producing beneficial rainfall to much of the outlook area this morning.
Severe parameters are most impressive in the lowest levels (0-1km) with 30-40 kts of bulk shear magnitude and 200-300 m2/s2 of helicity with a clockwise turning hodograph. Depending on how deep the low level cold air infiltrates into the forecast area, lows Sunday night may reach mid 30s for some.
Sfc cold front will push towards the CWA by Sunday, but looks to stall as it arrives keeping moisture in place and bringing rain chances with it.
Weak upper-level ridging will move across the area today and tonight. With southerly flow advecting a warmer airmass into South Texas, highs today and tomorrow are expected to remain warm with temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 80s near the coast to the mid 90s further inland. Low temperatures tonight will continue to be mild with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 70s.
431 AM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Transitory upper level ridge across the area today, while next major trough to impact the state begins to move onshore in the Pacific NW this afternoon. Winds farther west will be relatively light compared to the past several days, as mid level flow under the ridge is fairly weak, and expect mainly afternoon upslope breezes at most locations, with gusts staying near/under 20 mph. Tonight, upper ridge shifts east with mid/upper level flow becoming more s- swly toward Sunday morning as trough digs into the Great Basin.
606 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 (Today and tonight) At this hour, a cold front is pushing southward through west central Texas, thanks to a strong low pressure system over the central Plains. Despite the cold front bringing in northeast winds around 10 MPH, high temperatures will still reach the mid to upper 80s for most areas. As high pressure moves across north Texas this evening, winds should decrease to around 5 MPH and shift easterly. Overnight lows will be mild once again, generally in the low to mid 60s.
The upper level low that moved through Nebraska today will continue to gain strength as it heads into the Upper Mississippi Valley Today. This will also be seen at the surface as the area of low pressure moves into Iowa. Meanwhile, high pressure on the back side of this system will continue to influence western Kansas bringing strong northwesterly winds throughout the day. Dry conditions are expected most of Sunday as a weak upper level ridge glides over the Central High Plains.
Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a large closed low centered over northwest IA. Surface analysis showed a 996mb occluded low centered the upper low. A cold front extended from an occlusion triple point near Chicago, southwest through AR and northeast TX. As we head into early evening, midlevel height falls and eastward translation of the low level moisture axis will likely drive convective initiation along and west of the MS River. The surface cold front will likely wash out over north MS by Sunday morning, becoming rather ill-defined under zonal flow aloft.
114 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Warmer temperatures can be expected with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a warm front crossing in the morning followed by a cold front late afternoon / early eve. A few strong storms are possible with model progged moderate shear, instability, and dry mid level air enhancing the wind gust and large hail potential ahead of the cold front. The setup featuring a closed low aloft and a jet streak rounding the trough into the OH Valley will bring divergence aloft to the region. This, combined with decent PVA into the region will lead to frontogenesis as the surface cold front strengthens.
The upper low that helped to spark yesterday's severe storms has pushed northeast and is currently centered over northwest Iowa. A 995mb low is stacked beneath the upper low with a cold front extending into the Mississippi Valley. Cloud cover and breezy west- northwest winds on the southwest periphery of the upper low have kept temperatures cool in the low to mid 50s across the northern half of the forecast area while southern areas have warmed into the mid 60s given breaks in the clouds. The upper low continues its trek to the northeast tonight with some clouds lingering across far northeast Kansas.
A warmer day expected with max temps in the upper 80s Orlando northward and lower 80s at the coast.
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Low pressure over northern Iowa/southern Minnesota will continue to gradually meander to the northeast through the period. Winds will remain breezy for the eastern half of the forecast area through Sunday, but then relax during the late afternoon or early evening as high pressure nudges into the area. Lows tonight will be mostly in the low to mid 30s, while lows Sunday night will be mostly be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
However, these storms will weaken considerably overnight as the better dynamics lift farther to the northeast with the low pressure system. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms are possible, but not expecting severe storms with the cold front passage. The aforementioned cold front nearly stalls in the middle of the forecast area on Sunday.
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight to Sunday morning in the circulation around low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes.
Upper ridge moves in this afternoon which will diminish the chances for light rain. The ridge moves to the east on Sunday turning the flow aloft to the SW.
After 00z, the low level flow actually weakens with 40kts of S/SW flow dropping down to 25 kts or so.
A low pressure system to our north will approach the area tonight, moving across northern and central Nevada into Utah on Sunday.
222 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 This afternoon, a mid-level ridge is making its way east, out of the Lower Mississippi Valley Region, which will allow unseasonably warm temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s. At the surface, the exiting ridge is creating sustained southerly flow into the region, which will continue to increase moisture throughout the afternoon. Coincidentally, there is an anomalous low pressure disturbance off of the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast that is generating moisture and instability in E/SE Mississippi. The cold front is expected to stall over NW MS, which will allow for moisture to linger for areas south of the boundary.
A ridge aloft then builds east across the area on Sunday, with dry conditions, but also with cold air stratocu clouds hanging in over especially the eastern CWA.
Upper level pattern shows roller coaster of troughs and ridges across the country. The troughs are over the western Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and Central Plains with ridges between them. That puts the CWA under the western side of the eastern of the 2 ridges now. The good news is dewpoints holding in the mid to upper 60s will keep heat indices from being much warmer than actual temperature.