Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, the low level jet/moisture transport focus which was responsible for numerous night-time storms the past few nights over the area will shift north.
High pressure is holding steady in the western North Atlantic, and winds along the reef are currently near 15 knots, with occasional gusts near 20 knots outside of convection. Temperatures across the Florida Keys are in the lower 80s, and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure will continue to dominate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys through the rest of the weekend. All in all, the remainder of the holiday weekend is shaping up nicely, albeit toasty with highs near 90 degrees and lows only dropping into the lower 80s overnight.
Large area of high pressure remains centered across the Upper Mississippi Valley and much of the Great Lakes region early this morning. High pressure will remain centered across the Great Lakes thru today. A warm front will lift NE into the Western Great Lakes late tonight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-upper level trough/low over Southwest Texas still evident on satellite loops and analyzed by latest model suite. Center of 500mb ridge is analyzed over Louisiana and is expected to edge westward and strengthen as the upper low finally lifts northeast and fills in Monday. The upper low is well removed and the increasing subsidence from the westward moving ridge should keep rain chance at 10 percent today and below 10 percent July 4th.
420 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A cold front will slowly move south towards the North Carolina border today. High pressure will build across the region on Monday. Cold front is located across northern VA and central MD early this morning. As the cold front gradually moves south across southern VA and northern NC this afternoon. The latest trends continue to show the front moving south of the are Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves south out of Canada. Conditions are trending pleasant for Monday with dew points dropping to the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 60s across the central VA Piedmont to near 70F near the bay and ocean.
354 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature through the Fourth of July. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions, light wind, and seasonable temperature. High pressure will provide dry weather and generally comfortable humidity levels through the period. Temperatures on Monday will increase as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 500mb heights climb over the region. The cold front will continue to make slow progress across the region this afternoon. Most clouds will depart by mid- morning Sunday, and high pressure will provide a VFR day with light north/northwest wind.
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Sunday and into the mid Atlantic on Monday, providing dry weather. Upper level ridging persists over the central US this week leaving the Ohio Valley in weak northwesterly upper level flow. Locally heavy rain will be possible in any storms due to high PWATs and locally strong wind gusts could occur in the high DCAPE environment.
An upper level analysis shows a broad trough clipping the northeast CONUS, another coming into the PAC NW and a ridge encompassing pretty much everywhere else. The center of that ridge, currently near or just west of the Texas Panhandle, will gradually shift east over the next few days as the trough northeast of the area ejects out. That'll put the center of the high pressure much closer to the CWA, almost directly overhead. There seems to be quite a bit of moisture still caught inside the ridge as models indicating PW's in the low 2" range.
With the departure of yesteday's mid/upper level low, upper ridging will begin to build back into the South Central CONUS today. While this pattern shift should provide relatively clear conditions for your Independence Day celebrations/firework show watching, temperatures will be on the rise over the next few days with gradually strengthening ridging, reduced cloud cover, and persistent WAA as south to southeast winds prevail. While maximum heat index values will remain below advisory criteria in the low 100s, it will still be important to practice heat safety throughout the holiday weekend by staying hydrated, applying sunscreen, and looking before you lock! Overnight lows look to remain in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the coast.
150 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A slow moving cold front will push through southern Pennsylvania overnight, then exit the state by early Sunday morning. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair and seasonable weather with low humidity the rest of the July 4th weekend.
100 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A high pressure ridge, which has generally kept our weather hot and dry, has weakened a bit due to a disturbance moving into southern Texas.
Temps warming into the 60s and 70s, RH values largely in the 30s save for a few 20s in the interior west and central, and very few clouds in the sky really screams 'great!' The culprit responsible for this weather is high pressure slowly building into the Upper Great Lakes from our friends to the north. Starting with tonight, Canadian surface ridging gradually slides southeast as pressure falls occur across South Dakota. The first camp (00z HRRR, RAP, WRF-ARW, WRF-NSSL, GFS) develops the primary area of convection along a warm front draped across our CWA Monday afternoon/evening.
Nighttime temps will also remain a bit warmer with the increased boundary layer moisture.
A broad upper level ridge will continue across the southeast states through Monday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will continue from the western Atlantic into the southeast. Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to near 80 along the coast.
Low pressure over the NW United States is resulting in increased southwest flow over the western 2/3 of Arizona this morning.
It looks mainly quiet then the rest of today through tonight as high pressure lingers overhead. Looks like temps today could end up a bit warmer than yesterday, especially in the south and west. A lake breeze will move in by late this morning, keeping it cooler near the lake.
A strong upper level ridge builds into the central CONUS on Monday. This ridge will allow excessive heat to build into the area with daily highs in the middle to upper 90s, and heat indices ranging from 100 to 105 or greater.
The low level jet, 850mb moisture transport, and warm advection is better focused with this area. A warm front is expected to spread east to west somewhere over our southern FA or even as far southward as central or northern South Dakota. Getting into the evening, the low level jet looks to be strongest east of the Red River Valley, potentially even into central MN. Weaker elements of the low level jet may focus all along the ND/SD border region back toward MT. indications that upper ridge will situate itself over or just west of the forecast area by end of week are strong, with clustered analyses particularly consistent with this idea. Would think this would limit convective opportunities over this period of time, with ridge riders offering the only storm chances.
CAM guidance has consistently keyed in on kicking off localized early morning convection within close proximity of the low, similar to what occurred over northwest LA/east TX yesterday morning. Dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the week, where atmospheric moisture will be elevated with tropical remnants over the area and south/southeasterly winds prevailing.
636 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper level ridging has shifted slightly east from the Southern Plains to more across the southeast CONUS the past 24 hrs.
The current forecast generally looks to be on track with scattered to numerous showers/storms expected in this moist airmass especially given the proximity of the slow moving weak cold front to our north.
441 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper level ridging has shifted slightly east from the Southern Plains to more across the southeast CONUS the past 24 hrs.
Key Messages: - Hot and Humid start to the week Water vapor satellite was showing moisture rotating into the central Plains on the northern periphery of the upper high. For today, temperatures will be warmer with temperatures around normal for early July in the upper 80s to around 90. A weak disturbance will move atop the ridge from Colorado into Nebraska by this evening. Focus then turns to Independence Day as the thermal ridge expands into central and eastern Kansas.
322 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper low is persisting offshore the Pac NW coast while weak ridging sits over the northern Rockies to the central Great Plains. The upper ridge axis is now moving into the CWA, with upper flow becoming southwesterly on the backside. The upper ridge is progged to flatten out a bit more on Monday.
An upper low will bring cooler weather and some showers through Monday. Another upper low will be offshore mid- week for slight shower chances, with the upper low moving through late week and into the weekend.
A better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms comes overnight as a warm front lifts through the region and short wave energy moves across the region. If the atmosphere is able to recover there more storms should fire later on Monday as a cold front oriented from northeast to southwest moves through the forecast area.
This upper level ridge is expected to remain in place through Independence Day. Maximum temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to range from the lower 90s near the coast to near 105 degrees across the Brush Country. With the low relative humidity values and moderate winds, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible.
355 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper low is persisting offshore the Pac NW coast while weak ridging sits over the northern Rockies to the central Great Plains. The upper ridge axis is now moving into the CWA, with upper flow becoming southwesterly on the backside. The upper ridge is progged to flatten out a bit more on Monday.
513 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A slow moving cold front will sink to the south of the PA/MD border this morning. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes today and will bring clearing skies and seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s along with low humidity through the July 4th.
537 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature through the Fourth of July. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions, light wind, and seasonable temperature. High pressure will provide dry weather and generally comfortable humidity levels through the period. Temperatures on Monday will increase as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 500mb heights climb over the region.
Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Monday will be mostly in the lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast with some patchy late night fog possible.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue through this morning, mainly along and south of I-70 and then gradually shift southward this afternoon as subsidence increases as HREF is showing the upper ridge moving east into the Midwest.
(Today and tonight) A weakness in the upper level ridge will remain in place over west central Texas today.
1011 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A cold front will slowly move south towards the North Carolina border today. High pressure will build across the region on Monday. A cold front is sliding across central VA this morning and extends to the NE into the Delmarva. As the cold front gradually moves south across southern VA and northern NC this afternoon. The latest trends continue to show the front moving south of the are Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves south out of Canada. Conditions are trending pleasant for Monday with dew points dropping to the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 60s across the central VA Piedmont to near 70F near the bay and ocean.
1015 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda reaches west- southwest across Florida. The low level water vapor channel from GOES and TPW estimates indicate drier air is on our doorstep. High pressure parked over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys for the next several days.
around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. More impactful will be the high heat indices.
1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes today and into the mid Atlantic on Monday, providing dry weather. Skies will be mainly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s. Southerly low level flow develops on the back side of retreating high pressure. This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s across most locations Monday.
A poorly defined cold front is over northern KY early this morning, with an area of elevated showers and a few thunderstorms occurring along it. Slightly drier air will start to make it into our area and allow for cooler temperatures in our northern counties by Monday morning. A large and persistent upper level ridge will dominate over much of the central and southeastern portions of the CONUS through the majority of the period. Meanwhile, several smaller scale waves will travel through the flow over the top of the ridge.
711 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A slow moving cold front will sink to the south of the PA/MD border this morning. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes today and will bring clearing skies and seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s along with low humidity through the July 4th.
Winds remain elevated Monday across White Pine county as cooler temperatures filter into the region behind a cold front. High pressure builds over the region for the remainder of the week with temperatures climbing back above normal in the mid 90s by the end of the week. A low pressure trough northwest of the region will promote gusty southwest winds across northern and especially central and eastern Nevada.
342 AM MST Sun Jul 3 2022 Conditions will generally remain unfavorable for Monsoon convection across the lower deserts the next several days, while better rain chances are expected across eastern Arizona.
638 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (Today and tonight) A weakness in the upper level ridge will remain in place over west central Texas today.
Upper to surface ridging to only shift slightly and meander over the region combining with abundant moisture, diurnal heating, and bay/sea breezes to produce scattered to numerous afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some gusty winds daily with only subtle day to day variation.
650 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature through the Fourth of July. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions, light wind, and seasonable temperature. High pressure will provide dry weather and generally comfortable humidity levels through the period. Temperatures on Monday will increase as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 500mb heights climb over the region.
An entrenched troughing pattern will continue to provide unseasonably cool inland daytime temperatures, more persistent cloud cover and light precipitation. Heights will trend up by midweek as a strengthening Four Corners area ridge ushers the weakening trough north. An unseasonably strong mid to upper-level NE Pacific trough remains held in place by blocking downstream flow.
Currently, quasi-stationary upper level pattern with a closed low spinning over the Pacific Northwest and a mid level ridge over the Rockies. Embedded waves originated out of the closed low continue to move through and over the ridge, triggering scattered showers and storms across the region early this morning. Low stratus/fog development also taking place across the higher terrain of southwest North Dakota thanks to rich boundary layer moisture and an east/southeast upslope flow. Warmer temperatures are expected toward the end of the period. The Pacific Northwest low will slowly move onshore on Monday, with the ridge over the Rockies moving farther east into the Plains.
/issued 304 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-upper level trough/low over Southwest Texas still evident on satellite loops and analyzed by latest model suite. Center of 500mb ridge is analyzed over Louisiana and is expected to edge westward and strengthen as the upper low finally lifts northeast and fills in Monday. The upper low is well removed and the increasing subsidence from the westward moving ridge should keep rain chance at 10 percent today and below 10 percent July 4th.
1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (Today and tonight) A weakness in the upper level ridge will remain in place over west central Texas today.
140 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds.
Mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will shift to the northwest during the period with the center of the high over east Texas Monday and Monday night.
Guidance continues to agree that upper ridging will remain centered across the lower Mississippi Valley through at least midweek. This positioning combined with broad troughing over the eastern Pacific will allow the main plume of monsoonal moisture to center over NM/CO through this period. The general result of this setup will be the continuation of daily afternoon and evening storm chances over eastern New Mexico and the western South Plains, however there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength of the upper ridging and associated subsidence which has large implications on the eastward extent of this convection.
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Georgia continues to remain in a warm, moist, tropical airmass underneath broad high pressure ridging from the Atlantic Coastal Southeast to the Central Great Plains. Within this ridge pattern, weak flow will prevail across these areas from the surface through the upper-levels of the troposphere. Additionally, ever-so-slightly warmer temperatures between 700-500hPa combined with a bit of extra subsidence looks to keep thunderstorm updrafts weaker on Monday, which in turn, will lessen outflows and help dampen cascading development throughout the day. Aloft, jet has pulled well north of the CWA, leaving subtropical ridge across the southeast.
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda reaches west- southwest across Florida. Temperatures range from 89 to 94, with the highest reading registered on Big Pine. The low-level water vapor and TPW imagery from GOES place a broad swath of lower to mid tropospheric dry air across the Keys, the Cay Sal Bank, and east-central Cuba.
Current temperatures are at or several degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and dewpoints across much of the area are at or slightly higher than this time yesterday.
(This evening through Monday) Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across north TX early this afternoon and will continue to spread northward across the Red River through early this evening on the northeast periphery of an upper low moving over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Overnight dewpoints in the low 70s to mid 60s, and some residual cloud cover, will again keep lows well above average for Independence Day morning. However, it will also be a couple of degrees warmer.
125 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes today and into the mid Atlantic on Monday, providing dry weather. Skies will be mainly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s. Southerly low level flow develops on the back side of retreating high pressure. This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s across most locations Monday.
While the storms over the east were enough to temper the heating in those areas, abundant sunshine and upper level height rises will allow temps to climb into the lower 90s to match up with the rest of the area. Dewpoints area unlikely to mix too much this afternoon, so expect overnight lows to only drop into the lower to mid 70s overnight.
217 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 18z WV satellite shows an upper ridge extending from W OK extending westward over the Panhandles to NM and an upper wave moving northward over W TX. Progged soundings suggest warm temperatures aloft at around 400mb associated with the upper ridge should keep convection in check. Lee side trough will develop, leading to southwesterly winds and robust warming into the upper 90s.
Likely some wiggle room either way in temperatures with this forecast package but what seems more certain, baring any persistent cloud debris into the afternoon (most likely along/east of Hwy 59), is heat indices rising toward or into the lower 100s. Have coordinated a Heat Advisory with neighboring offices for the afternoon and early evening hours with perhaps some room for modification along the eastern fridges dependent on lingering cloud/convection Monday.
High pressure will build in north of the front as well as a dome of high pressure remaining across the Central Plains.
123 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 [Through 18Z Monday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms can affect all terminals this evening but mainly, ECP, TLH, and VLD terminals will have the highest chances through the evening. Subtropical ridge axis has shifted a bit to the south today, with the low-level flow becoming more westerly to northwesterly by this afternoon. Therefore, will paint the highest PoPs across Florida for this afternoon and evening.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows an inverted trough of sorts slowly moving NNW through West Texas this afternoon, on the periphery of the upper ridge now centered over south Louisiana.
Upstream clouds are tied to isentropic lift along and ahead of a warm front that's lifting toward the Upper Great Lakes. Warm front traversing north tonight will allow for the U. ridge. With the aforementioned boundary stalling across Upper Michigan tomorrow, plus another ridge rider tomorrow into tomorrow night, persistent precip chances will exist throughout the holiday.
Weak upper-level ridging to the east continues for today, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across the FL peninsula in response to the 2+ inch PW values and ample instability from daytime heating. By that point, the ridge axis should shift a little farther east.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show low amplitude upper ridge generally over the central CONUS. Think cloud cover left over from this morning was finally beginning to erode and allowing temps to push into the low 80s. 5" with dew points in the low 70s. Otherwise, models prog large scale pattern transitioning to a large high pressure dome becoming the dominate feature over the central Plains.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected diminish overnight We will be under the influence of upper level ridging as we head into the holiday which will continue the southerly/southwesterly low- level flow that has been driving our daily showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonal in the low 90s but the added humidity will have heat indices above 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.
As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 80s with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
Tomorrow, a similar synoptic situation as the ridge stalls and broadens a bit. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees, bringing highs up to the low 90s to near 100 across the plains (warmest in the northeast corner), 70s and 80s in the foothills and mountain valleys, and 50s and 60s in the mountains.
303 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Current WV imagery shows ridging beginning to build back into the region pushing the monsoonal plume of moisture to the north this afternoon.