Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The expectations of a hot day are panning out this afternoon, with 19Z temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s (slightly cooler in the eastern Florida Big Bend).
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG. RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OK/AR DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING.
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL TROUGHING STRECTING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND.
605 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
324 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
AND HAVE LINGERED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS INTO MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONGER PUSH OF COOLING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/FOR THE 18Z TAFS/ COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED FASTER THAN INDICATED EARLIER WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT KDHT AND KGUY.
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CWA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWEST LEVELS BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER LEADING TO THE FASTER WARM UP THIS MORNING.
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY THROUGH AMARILLO NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING WEST BENINNING WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH HALLOWEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS AZ/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
A positively tilted upper level trough currently over the Southern Rockies, will migrate east across the Southern Plains tonight into Saturday. Highs today will be in the lower and middle 70s, with lows tonight in the 50s.
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
1031 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
725 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT, MAKING WAY FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACH ON SATURDAY.
1003 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015 NUDGED LATEST QPF IN LINE WITH MORNING OPS GUIDANCE AND VARIED PRECIP LINE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
751 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
812 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015 DECREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH IS SHUTTING PRECIPITATION OFF UP THERE. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE U. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AND ITS LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST. IN THE NEAR TERM THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFR NORTH TONIGHT BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
At the surface, a broad high pressure system remained over much of the central plains, and MSLP were falling over the high plains of NM. The 00Z RAOB from Topeka showed a fairly dry airmass associated with the high pressure system and surface dewpoints suggest the airmass has not changed much in the past 8 hours with much of the low level moisture remaining over TX. As the upper low approaches the state, large scale forcing for vertical motion is progged to increased. By around midnight, the upper trough axis begins to become more positively tilted allowing low level winds to veer more to the southwest and take the best moisture advection to the east of the area. Therefore high in the lower to mid 50s seem reasonable. Latest model trends have the mid level trough axis centered across the CWA Saturday morning.
THIS TURNED SEWD THEN SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ.
RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE FALLING AT SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST. SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG TO WEST OF THE S/WV AND SURFACE WARM FRONT AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND COUPLED WITH WAA WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NEXT S/WV TROUGH. A LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 44 65 56 / 0 0 20 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 42 66 54 / 0 0 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 42 65 54 / 0 0 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 36 65 51 / 0 0 0 40.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE RAIN ENDS.
1045 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
930 AM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015 NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BACK IN CONTROL. RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT, MAKING WAY FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACH ON SATURDAY.
1041 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
915 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY A WELCOMED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BAKER MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN EVENT FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TEXAS EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/NWP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS DEPICT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES GREET THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ENABLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BUMP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. CONTINUING 7H WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TEMPS TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SATURDAY.
1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL PLOT INDICATED A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. SATURDAY STARTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST.
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek. The first one tracking through this morning is bringing widespread rain across Eastern Washington and North Idaho in the form of a warm front. For this afternoon temperatures will be mild as 850mb temps warm to +10C behind the warm front. 12Z TAFS: A strong and deep fetch of Pacific moisture will enhance over a warm front today and a second warm front tonight to produce two periods of widespread stratiform rain over the eastern TAF sites with the KMWH and KEAT TAF sites largely shadowed by the Cascades but also subject to occasional showers. Another warm front will develop tonight after 06Z and bring another round of rain mainly to the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites before 12Z.
MAX TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WARM BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT.
A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EAST. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY DUE TO PLENTIFUL HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CLEARING OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CLEARING ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE SW FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 40S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND.
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR CAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE CREST OF ROCKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
611 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL PLOT INDICATED A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. SATURDAY STARTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST.
1044 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER RAPID TRANSITION FROM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS THE HIGH- AMPLITUDE WESTERN U. TROF EDGES EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON. A PLAUSIBLE EVOLUTION WOULD BE FOR THE LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU TO BREAK UP ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE MIDDLE- LAYER OVERCAST MOVES IN. AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS DIMINISH TONIGHT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THEY ARE TRAPPED UNDER. CONSIDERING THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND WILL REMAIN SO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TODAY AND TONIGHT QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST/SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S N/NW TO NEAR 70F FAR S/SE. EXPECT CHILLY LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SAT SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL TS /SOME STRONG/ BEFORE SUNSET NEAR PVW-LBB. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF N-NE WINDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS AT LBB AND PVW. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF A TIGHT UPPER CYCLONE NEAR TOMBSTONE ARIZONA AT 4 AM. HOWEVER AM TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT AS THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND AS A RESULT KEEPS THE BOUNDARY STATIONARY LONGER. PRECIP WILL TREND LESS IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST AND MIXING RATIOS PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DECREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH IS SHUTTING PRECIPITATION OFF UP THERE. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE U. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
An amplified upper level low with a strong +PV anomaly lies over the southwestern states with weak ridging and mostly zonal flow aloft of the southeastern states. Near the surface, high pressure reigns over most of the eastern half of the U. with a low pressure system in central Texas and a passing cold front off the Atlantic coast and across northeast Florida.
1240 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
/issued / Progressive upper low was currently moving through southern AZ with an expanding area of showers/thunderstorms noted across western TX. Positive tilt trof axis will push through the area by Saturday.
OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
1133 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S TUE-THU. COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NE NC WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 8 K FT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.
1022 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS SHARPENED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FRACTURED INTO TWO SYSTEMS. AN EMACIATED TROUGH CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A REVIEW A SATELLITE ANIMATIONS INDICATES THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AVERAGED 6 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft will keep the region dry through today.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST. SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG TO WEST OF THE S/WV AND SURFACE WARM FRONT AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND COUPLED WITH WAA WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NEXT S/WV TROUGH. A LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE REGIONAL 88D RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW A DEEP AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE RED RIVER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TODAY. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST/SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S N/NW TO NEAR 70F FAR S/SE. EXPECT CHILLY LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SAT SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH HALLOWEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST.
THE SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COLLAPSES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLAT RIDGING TAKING CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND SE UTAH LOWLANDS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S TUE-THU. COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NE NC WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 8 K FT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
1118 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE JUST A GRAY OVERCAST AND CHILLY AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.