Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS BUT GENERALLY A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO TODAY IN TERMS OF AIRMASS MOISTURE. WARMER AND DRY THAN TODAY WITH INCREASED WINDS. COOLER BY THE LAKE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
343 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
303 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS SEEMS BEST GIVEN THE LOW POPS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BACK TO THE WEST AND A WEAK FRONT THIS MORNING IS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MKL HAS AUGMENTED THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE SUCH THAT A WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. PRECIPITATION WAS RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND HAS LARGELY MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
DEEP RIDGING WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. SO MUCH COOLER NEAR THE LAKE VS INLAND AREAS. THOUGH AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF US BY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
1055 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015 The weather will turn unsettled tonight and Tuesday as a passing cold front produces showers and windy conditions. Drier and warmer weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE STRONG WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
200 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MID WEEK IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MOISTURE MAY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015 The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the northeast this morning. The next upper trough will move ashore the NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed low over WY early Wednesday.
409 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
438 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 LOOKS LIKE A SMALL BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE, AND STRENGTHEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. ALSO, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL BE MISSING ANY DECENT SHORT WAVES AT 500MB, WHICH WE HAVE BEEN GETTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THEN, BY TOMORROW, THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AGAIN AND A SMALL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTH.
341 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART OF THE U. DESPITE THE REDUCTION OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON, THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT AND APPROACHING POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
AND WEAKENS AS IT ROUNDS A RIDGE ALOFT ALIGNED OVER FLORIDA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS IN PLACE. WITH A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. FORECAST - DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH DEW POINTS OSCILLATING IN THE LOWER 70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED RIDGING. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO RIDGING FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST. PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL MEAN WINDS WILL TEND TO BE STRONGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS PRESSED NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) Low level ridging across much of the Upper Midwest stretching down into Iowa and northern Illinois will continue to funnel drier air into the CWFA today. Stuck to the cool side of guidance for highs and the warmer side for lows thinking that clouds would offset daytime heating and also keep us insulated at night.
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WEST TEXAS WAS SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN A BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TO NNE ACROSS OK/KS ON TUE. THUS FLASH FLOODING CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. BUT WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH VS A TRUE LOW-PRESSURE SURFACE REFLECTION.
426 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL HAVE A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RAIN ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOL AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES AND CONTINUING EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT IS ROUGHLY COLOCATED WITH THE FRONT.
126 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPSTATE SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE DEVELOPING WEDGE FLOW.
528 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
332 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED N/S ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR QUIET/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
THE EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS INFLECTION POINT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. FRIES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A VICTORIA TO LAREDO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS RETURN AND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. BUT 00Z GFS WAS WARMER. WILL GO A BIT WARMER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE MIXING MAY BE A BIT DEEPER. THE WEST COAST H5 TROF WILL HAVE MOVED INTO IDAHO. WITH THE WEAK H5 TROF OVER TEXAS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAKER CITY TO BURNS TO LAKEVIEW OREGON. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH BOISE AROUND 6 TO 9 AM MDT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION BELOW 4000 FEET MSL AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO COLORADO.
653 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY. A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS THE THUMB WITH A LATE DAY INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY. BOTTOM END OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE VICNITY OF 30 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. RATHER AMPLIFIED 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
COLD AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDING ACROSS NE MN AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AN ABUNDANT AMT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LAYER HAS INHIBITED THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND WITH ANY CONSISTENCY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE EAST AND NE INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALONG WITH A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MUCH MORE PLEASANT ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. WITH THIS RIDGE NEARBY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS.
230 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY WITH WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST TODAY AND THEN FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.
425 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO WADDLE SLOWLY NORTHEAST.
235 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2015 A cold front will produce showers and windy conditions today. Drier and warmer weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
300 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE WILL BE SE OF THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH EDGES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRDIOR. AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH.
GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PERSISTENCE A TOOL ALONG WITH SLOW WARMING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO LIMIT BL MIXING WITH HIGHS 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RANGE OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES FOR A COMFORTABLE DAY. MINS AROUND 40F NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE/UPPER 40S SW CLOSER TO UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL ENTER INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
450 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER OF N TX/SW OK. AS AMPLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO INITIATE AREAS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWRD AS THE FRONT SLOWLY RETREATS BACK NORTH. THIS BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT MAJOR UPPER TROF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES INTO OUR REGION.
400 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A LITTLE UNDER 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
448 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RH VALUES HAVE TANKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TEENS WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN GUSTY. NOT SO SURE THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL LAST MUCH LONGER. MODELS KEEP SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION FOR MID WEEK. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS CWA BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL COL POINT/REGION WITH CLOSED LOW ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
THE EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS INFLECTION POINT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. FRIES HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY SHUNTING THE REMAINING MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
647 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUSTAIN A PERIOD OF DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY. A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS THE THUMB WITH A LATE DAY INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY. BOTTOM END OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE VICNITY OF 30 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. RATHER AMPLIFIED 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNDN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF NEAR ERN ID/NRN UT AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY. THE ECM/NAM SHOW THE UPPER LOW STAYING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PUSHING INTO THE CWA WILL PROVIDE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR MAXES TODAY AND FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR NUMBERS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
346 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND GET ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE REMNANT TROUGH WILL GET CARRIED EASTWARD. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WNW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LONGEST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.
301 AM PDT THU MAR 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY.
208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
124 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
A SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAY SAG A BIT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURE. GULF UPPER RIDGING NUDGING SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAWIDE RAINFALL. HINTS OF AFTERNOON SUN FURTHER SOUTH TODAY MAY EVEN ALLOW A FEW SITES TO ACHIEVE THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
235 AM MST THU MAR 19 2015 CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY. TODAY TROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CENTER THAT HAS BROUGHT US THIS WET WEATHER IS NOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA. A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST AND PWATS BEGIN TO DROP. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA THIS EVENING. RADAR IS STILL PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
254 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
336 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. BUT DRY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME KICKS IN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHERN ND/MN. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO NORTHERN WI/CENTRAL WI THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA. WARM/DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PLAINS SHOULD EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A LOT OF THE PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SEEN LATE FRI MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POST FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND PHASES WITH AN SECONDARY SFC WAVE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
608 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
Most of the low clouds have dissipated at TAF sites with SCT-BKN mid/upper clouds thru the night. /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ The upper low that brought the rain showers yesterday has moved to the northeast of the region with southerly winds and gradually clearing skies returning to the area. An upper level trough over northern Mexico just south of California will move east toward the region on Thursday. Another cold front will move into the area Thursday night/Friday morning as the upper trough moves closer to the region.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
135 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR AS THIS WILL HELP LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
432 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS MORNING TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
416 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS A MAX TEMPERATURE RANGE OF AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. COOLER TEMPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE COAST IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
202 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
500 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY. SOME RAIN COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OVER NE PA WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES. SNOW WILL END DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE FAR SE FA AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
348 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DAMPENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM. TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW GET REINFORCED BY THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE BAJA REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HELP DRAW UP PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY BUT GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO OUR DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. AGAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN OUR SOUTH.
NORTHERN PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HINTED AT DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.