Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The threat for storms will come to an end later tonight as a cold front moves into the region and cooler and drier weather moves in for the remainder of the week. Cooler and drier air will help decrease the areal coverage of showers with a few lingering showers later on Tuesday over southern Vermont. Noticeable cooler temperatures will be on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 60s to around 70. A quiet stretch of weather is expected for the middle to end of the work week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
MVFR conds will continue over Cntrl/Srn terminals for the next several hours as scattered SHRA move across the region associated with an advancing cold front.
So speaking about Tuesday, basic overview indicates an upper level ridge over the Great Basin that will be shifting eastward as an upper level low drops south along the West Coast. As the ridge axis approaches Tuesday morning, we lose the northerly component in our mid/upper level wind fields with southwesterly flow resuming operations by Tuesday afternoon. Deep southerly tap gets turned on by midweek with high pressure shifting into the plains and low pressure diving along the west coast. Temperatures, even a few degrees cooler, will remain above seasonal normals for this period.
746 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight while low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A cold front attached to the low will pass across the region Tuesday. This will be followed by quiet weather as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the work week. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and drag a cold front closer to our forecast area into the weekend. The cold front will continue across NJ/Delmarva during the day with more showers developing along it so likely or categorical pops for the morning then decreasing for the afternoon. Highs will be below normal reaching only in the low 60s N/W and low/mid 70s S/E.
20Z water vapor imagery shows broad upper troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS with the trough axis pushing east. Ridging is beginning to build back over the southwestern US while another upper low spins off the west coast. At the surface, last night's cold front has pushed well south to the OK/TX border leaving broad high pressure in its wake over much of the Plains and Rockies. As a result, temperatures are much cooler than we've seen recently and are on track to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The approach of a weak cold front from the north will initiate showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Later tonight, a cold front will move southward into central Texas but should remain well north of the CWA. Thanks to the increased cloud cover and potential rainfall, temperatures will be a bit lower tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
/Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ A cold front has moved across the area this morning, having made it all the way down to the Big Bend of Texas this afternoon. As a cooler airmass has settled into place, and skies are expected to clear, overnight lows will drop into the 50s. A warm front will move back across the region on Tuesday as the upper level ridge progresses east into New Mexico and strengthens. As the ridge strengthens, the ridge axis is expected to be along the eastern side of the Rockies with high temperatures being in the mid 90s in the western zones to the mid 80s in the southeastern zones.
That said, the cold front is working across northwestern sections of the mid state.
502 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight while low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A cold front attached to the low will pass across the region Tuesday. This will be followed by quiet weather as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the work week. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and drag a cold front closer to our forecast area into the weekend. The cold front will continue across NJ/Delmarva during the day with more showers developing along it so likely or categorical pops for the morning then decreasing for the afternoon. Highs will be below normal reaching only in the low 60s N/W and low/mid 70s S/E.
621 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 305 PM CDT After the active weather the last few days, we're in for some quiet conditions through Tuesday, as a broad upper trough drifts across the Great Lakes. A weak disturbance will slide down the ridge and into northern Illinois late Tuesday night.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s with SW flow around 5 mph.
/Issued 349 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Ample moisture and approaching upper level trough will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Behind the front a cooler and drier air mass returns to the state.
616 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) As of early afternoon, a cold front was moving southward through the Big Country and was located just north of I-20. Overnight, as the cooler air moves in, widespread cloud cover will develop underneath the frontal inversion, mainly south of I-20. Lows tonight should be about 10-15 degrees cooler than last night. Tomorrow, the cooler airmass should remain in place with generally northeast winds, turning east by afternoon. These factors should allow high temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s, which will be a welcome relief from the blast furnace conditions of the last few days.
This evening through Tuesday night H5 ridge will quickly traverse the region during the next 36 hours, keeping weather conditions tranquil with mostly sunny skies and reasonably light winds. With the ridge at its peak tomorrow, temperatures will recover back into the 90s for most lower elevations, with higher elevations and Yellowstone in the 60s and 70s. The warmer and drier conditions will mean elevated fire weather risks on Tuesday, mainly for areas along and west of the Divide. With the ridge moving east, some southwesterly flow may develop late afternoon as the next H5 trough drops south along the West Coast.
530 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Cooler and dry conditions will follow this evenings frontal passage. Cold frontal passage will end residual shower and storm this evening. The next rain chance will come with the progged approach of a weekend long wave trough. Diurnal heating/mixing of drier air with developing high pressure will return most terminals to VFR by Tuesday aftn.
1025 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The Florida Keys remain in the western periphery of a large subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Temperatures in the island communities are in the lower to mid 80s and the dew point values are in the mid 70s. Temperatures are forecast to settle into the lower 80s across the archipelago. From synopsis, the ridge axis across South Florida will continue to drift slowly northward.
1047 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight while low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A cold front attached to the low will pass across the region Tuesday. This will be followed by quiet weather as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the work week. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and drag a cold front closer to our forecast area into the weekend. The cold front will continue across NJ/Delmarva during the day with more showers developing along it so likely or categorical pops for the morning then decreasing for the afternoon. Highs will be below normal reaching only in the low 60s N/W and low/mid 70s S/E.
936 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A strong cold front will cross the area overnight and exit the Chesapeake Bay on Tuesday.
308 PM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 H5 ridge will quickly traverse the region during the next 36 hours, keep weather conditions tranquil with mostly sunny skies and reasonably light winds. With the ridge at its peak tomorrow, temperatures will recover back into the 90s for most lower elevations, with higher elevations and Yellowstone in the 60s and 70s. The warmer and drier conditions will mean elevated fire weather risks on Tuesday, mainly for areas along and south of the Divide. With the ridge moving east, some southwesterly flow may develop late afternoon as the next H5 trough drops south along the west coast.
Ongoing cloud cover from scattered MVFR to broken high clouds should continue exit Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening as the cold front and upper level trof axis pull further away from the CWA. /Issued 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ The cold front has cleared the forecast area leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake.
/issued 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. The cold front currently moving through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be well to the south of the Mid-South with rain ending from extreme southern areas.
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 (00Z TAFS) A strong cold front continues to push south through the terminals with gusty northeast winds behind it. (This evening through Tuesday night) As of 200 PM CDT, a cold front is plunging swd and now entering the Pecos River valley. Ahead of the cold front, a rather moist boundary layer is in place w/Td in the 70s stretching from Big Lake to Dryden. As lift assocd with the cold front interacts w/this moist environment, thunderstorms are expected to develop. Tomorrow morning will start off on the cool side with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.
1003 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
Much cooler and drier air will allow temps to settle into the mid-40s outside of the Chicago metro core by morning. Ratzer 305 PM CDT After the active weather the last few days, we're in for some quiet conditions through Tuesday, as a broad upper trough drifts across the Great Lakes. A weak disturbance will slide down the ridge and into northern Illinois late Tuesday night.
The cold front has now moved through the forecast area and was located near the Ohio River extending into southern Ohio as of mid afternoon. An amplified upper level pattern will develop and help to shove the cold front away to the southeast tonight and Tuesday. highlighted by a ridge over the western US and a deep trough across the eastern half of the country. high pressure will expand into the region from the northwest tonight and Tuesday with cool northerly flow and a progressively drier airmass. isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible as the upper trough axis lingers back across the region. Subtle increases in cloud coverage will come Tuesday night as a warm front extends east into the lower Great Lakes.
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The post frontal regime across the area has brought relatively very cool conditions as the surface ridging becoming more pronounced. One feature to watch for the rest of the day will be a broad trough with a fairly deep 1. This will make daytime highs a bit higher than previously advertised for Tuesday, likely settling into the lower to middle 80s, with slightly warmer temps across the western zones.
On Tuesday, an upper ridge currently overhead will gradually shift east as another weak trough moves through the area. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the afternoon and evening especially across Oregon and the higher terrain in Idaho. The trough will be accompanied by increasing moisture and wind shear, leading to impressive instability and the likelihood of storms becoming better organized. Given the high instability and wind shear, can't rule out potential for large hail as well.
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Cooler and dry conditions will follow this evenings frontal passage. After cold frontal passage ends residual rain, expect a rapid influx of lower, more comfortable dewpoint to accompany overnight lows about 5 degrees under the averages. The next rain chance will come with the progged approach of a weekend long wave trough. Diurnal heating/mixing of drier air with developing high pressure will return most terminals to VFR by Tuesday aftn.
1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will approach overnight and cross the area on Tuesday.
312 PM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Upper ridging will bring more dry and warm weather to the area tonight through Tuesday.
609 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Tuesday.
/issued 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. The cold front currently moving through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be well to the south of the Mid-South with rain ending from extreme southern areas.
1046 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will slowly approach from the tonight and pass through during Tuesday.
To the north behind the front, temperatures are cooler and drier. Highs will be held to the lowers 80s F north of the front and will be in the middle 80s F to the south. This will likely allow for more radiational cooling tonight than is typical this time of year under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies north of the highway 84 corridor. Temperatures will likely fall to near 60 F in some of the cooler spots near the Golden Triangle, warming as you go south with overnight lows in the Pine Belt likely only falling to near 70 F.
High pressure overhead has lead to clear skies and light winds early this morning. Warming temperatures continue on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds into the central plains. Height rises on the eastern side of the ridge and southerly surface winds present over our area will lead to highs in the mid to upper 80s over the western CWA and low 80s over the eastern Ozarks.
20Z water vapor imagery shows broad upper troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS with the trough axis pushing east. Ridging is beginning to build back over the southwestern US while another upper low spins off the west coast. At the surface, last night's cold front has pushed well south to the OK/TX border leaving broad high pressure in its wake over much of the Plains and Rockies. As a result, temperatures are much cooler than we've seen recently and are on track to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. For the next few days, the upper ridge continues building over the southwestern US, keeping the aforementioned low stationary off the west coast and leaving our area in northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sky cover will continue to diminish through dawn as the H500 trough axis and most embedded vorts cross the CWA. Bright skies will then be the rule this morning under a very dry column and subsidence from the approaching center of high pressure. The bright June sun should lead to FEW/SCT afternoon cumulus across southern/northern zones, although the air will feel very dry for late June, with surface dewpoints bottoming out in the low-mid 40s midday today. A weak warm front will expand from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes this evening. This will translate to highs in the low to mid 70s today. lows in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.
Cooler temperatures today, but a warming trend will begin on Wednesday. The trough will help to keep clouds over the region, but these will begin to diminish once the upper level energy exits to the east.
Low level flow becomes more southerly oriented through the day as cool high pressure to the east continues to drift away. This will bring us back to near average for temperatures, however negligible moisture advection in the low levels today means afternoon humidity will be quite low (down around 15 percent between the Missouri and James valleys). Slightly warmer air aloft advects into the region Wednesday, but the main push for getting temperatures again near the century mark will be the winds shifting to west southwest resulting in efficient mixing up to between 10-12kft.
133 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 The threat for storms has come to an end tonight though showers will still be possible as a cold front moves into the region. Cooler and drier weather moves in for the remainder of the week. Otherwise, abundant cloud cover will persist as the cold front marches southeastward from the St John Valley. Cooler and drier air will help decrease the areal coverage of showers with a few lingering showers later on Tuesday over southern Vermont. Noticeable cooler temperatures will be on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 60s to around 70.
The freezing level is around 5 kft today so, even though the updraft depth is expected to be limited. The storms should decrease by late afternoon with the trough axis moving east and diminishing insolation.
Today and Tonight: A prominent mid/upper-level trough in place along the MS Valley early this morning will progress east today ahead of a building ridge over the Rockies. The net result of these processes will be notably warmer temperatures today (i. The 00z HREF members are in unusually good agreement in suggesting the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by mid to late afternoon in the vicinity of the developing warm front over northeast NE into western IA. Wednesday and Wednesday night: The above-mentioned ridging over the Rockies is forecast to shift east into the Plains on Wednesday with some model signal of a weak disturbance cresting the ridge axis over the northern Plains. Furthermore, the above-mentioned "ridge-rider" may initiate storms to our west on Wednesday afternoon with the potential for that activity to evolve into an eastward-moving MCS on Wednesday night.
Cold front is approaching the Cumberland plateau and should push east of all terminals by 12z. Winds likely go nearly calm late as high pressure builds in, but will be after midnight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 60 84 65 86 / 30 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 57 83 62 87 / 60 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 82 61 87 / 30 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 52 80 58 85 / 90 0 0 0 10.
202 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon. High pressure and cooler air will arrive in the wake of the front for Tuesday and Wednesday.
318 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A little warmer today, but overall still a nice day in store for the area. Given decent mixing up to 850-700mb and slightly warmer temperatures than anticipated yesterday, have bumped temperatures up several degrees this afternoon. Despite the warmer temperatures today, continued lower humidity values and breezy winds will result in a generally pleasant, albeit warm, day.
323 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows moisture is working its way back into the region from the northwest overtop a ridge over the Southwest CONUS. Warmer air is also gradually being advected in, but you wouldn't know it if you were to step outside at the moment. Southerly flow increases overnight into Wednesday as the ridge moves over the Central Plains, allowing more summer-like heat and humidity to return. The large scale pattern will be dominated by a massive upper ridge in the western part of the continent.
Cold front will push thru the remainder of the CWA this evening, and precip chances will quickly come to an end as cooler and drier air filters into the state. Despite the cold front, an upper level ridge will continue to build across the Plains, with a northwesterly flow continuing across the area. Conditions tomorrow should be quite pleasant, with highs in the 70's across the north, to the lower 80's south.
104 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) As of early afternoon, a cold front was moving southward through the Big Country and was located just north of I-20. Overnight, as the cooler air moves in, widespread cloud cover will develop underneath the frontal inversion, mainly south of I-20. Lows tonight should be about 10-15 degrees cooler than last night. Tomorrow, the cooler airmass should remain in place with generally northeast winds, turning east by afternoon. These factors should allow high temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s, which will be a welcome relief from the blast furnace conditions of the last few days.
316 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 As a mid-level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, cool and dry conditions are expected, with temperatures well below normal today.
Watching the storms push down from the north with the cold front and expect ceilings/visby to lower with that as storms sag south.
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Currently at the surface, Atlantic high pressure is continuing to ridge across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, setting up southeasterly to southerly winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon seabreeze. Atlantic high pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will hold through midweek, with generally southeasterly to southwesterly flow, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will lift north during the second half of the week, with winds becoming more easterly.
/Issued 1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ The much anticipated cold front has moved through all of North and Central Texas late this evening with north winds and cooler air filtering into the region. Mid level ridging will quickly build back into the Southern Plains on Wednesday with a quick warmup in store.
That will be followed by clearing skies tonight as much cooler and drier air filters into the region. Dry, cooler, and less humid conditions are anticipated the next few days as high pressure migrates east from the Plains and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. In the upper levels, northwest flow will prevail between a ridge over the Plains and trough in the East. A gradual warming trend is expected by Wednesday as the ridge builds east and low level winds become southerly on the back side of the departing high. Highs on Tuesday should range from 75 to 80 degrees, then warm into the lower and middle 80s on Wednesday. Lows the next couple nights are forecast in the lower to middle 50s.
/issued 913 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Cold front currently pushing south across I-20 this evening characterized by a convective complex near Lufkin as well as additional convection across portions of north-central Louisiana. 700 MB trough lags the front by several hundred miles allowing for additional elevated convection across much of northeast Texas. Much cooler temperatures expected tonight into Tuesday with overnight lows in the 60s areawide.
427 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front over Central PA will continue to push southeast and out of the area this morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today and stay below normal through midweek before moderating into the weekend. The cold front appears to be almost half-way through the CWA and moving steadily.
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Today will be drier and much cooler than yesterday with scattered to numerous showers expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.
As the cold front slides south and activity continues to develop along the pre-frontal trough along the coast, the southern portions of Central Alabama will be in a conditional marginal threat for severe weather.