Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dangerous conditions due to heat exposure are likely in the lower elevations through Monday as very hot temperatures continue.
At the surface, high pressure will return but then quickly move off to the east. So temperatures will be slightly warmer than today. Pressure gradient will start to tighten Sunday night as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes. This will result in warmer lows, especially in the northwest half of the area. Southerly winds will gust around 25 mph on Monday bringing in warmer air. High temperatures on Monday are expected to reach into the lower to upper 80s. The lower of those temperatures will be across northwestern portions of the forecast area where there will be more cloud cover and better chances of precipitation as a disturbance moves into the area.
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 High pressure will result in drier and cooler weather persisting over the area through the early part of the week. With dry dewpoints still expected under steady northeast flow, any weak cumulus field today will be relegated to a few places along the mountain ridges, but with a slight increase in thin cirrus as an upper trough axis traverses the region. Temperatures this afternoon should be comparable to yesterday, except perhaps a degree warmer in a few locations. As of 210 pm Sunday: Heights will gradually rise through the short term, while dry ridging will largely remain in control in the lower levels.
Multiple boundaries with dry line into east-central WY and cold front into northeast WY. Very dry air behind dry-line and ahead of cold front with relative humidities in the teens. Water vapour had jet streak zipping across the northern plains will push cold front out of the CWA this morning.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 64 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 62 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 62 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 59 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Surface analysis has a low pressure system in central South Dakota with a cold front extending to the west from the low. The cold front will swing to the southeast. Finally tonight, the cooler air will start to move into the area. Cooler air continues to filter into the area on Monday, but temperatures will still be in the 70s to lower 80s.
240 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 SFC/LL high well in place over the mid-south this morning, as an upper trough remains over the eastern US. Fridays cold front now well down by the gulf coast, and out of our picture. SFC/LL high here to stay for the next few days as upper trough transitions into an upper high on Monday in response to digging trough across the western US.
1129 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A weak area of low pressure track across the northern border of Pennsylvania tonight, bringing clouds and a few showers to that part of the state. High Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
A few thunderstorms will develop across the north late tonight as a warm front develops into the southern Great Lakes. Additional thunderstorms will develop Monday as a cold front moves into the area during the day and then lifts back north Monday night. A weak surface trof across central Ohio will continue pushing south and dissipate this morning. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with highs around 80 to the lower 80s. Southerly flow and clouds will result in warmer temperatures with lows from near 60 southeast to the upper 60s northwest. Surface cold front to drop into Ohio at the south edge of westerly mid level flow and stall out Monday. A surface front associated with a deepening cyclone in southeastern Canada will be in the proximity of the Ohio Valley on Monday night.
Warm and dry for the next two days as a high pressure bubble will have the area sealed off tightly from any moisture.
330 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
Currently, the upper air pattern features a eastern trough working into the New England region. Winds will pick up and become more south/southwesterly over the next 24 hours as the lee side trough deepens and broadens into the local area. The surface cold front will advance into the area by Sunday night. Capping should remain strong enough that if any storms can fire along the cold front, they would likely be isolated and mainly into the evening or overnight. The heat will persist into the day tomorrow but with mixing and dewpoints holding into the low to mid 60s as a result, should see heat index levels still maintain the 100 degree range. The cold front stalls over east central into central KS into Monday.
308 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 The main focus continues to be on the big weather changes that will occur this week as we get the first taste of the fall season in the form of a strong, but shallow cold front. The various medium range models all agree that a closed low will develop from the digging trough over the Rockies early this week. This low will become cutoff as the parent trough lifts out and leaves it behind. A strong and shallow cold front will surge south and then slow as it progresses east and encounters the terrain of W AR.
122 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 High pressure will maintain mostly dry and comfortable weather today. A weakening cold front may bring some rain on Labor Day, mainly to areas north and west of Pittsburgh. High pressure transitioning east and off the coast will maintain dry conditions with daytime highs right around normal (mid to upper 70s) A fading cold front is still expected to travel into at least the western portion of our region Monday afternoon and evening. The warming trend will continue, with afternoon highs climbing into the lower and mid 80s Monday afternoon.
As a cold front approaches the area from the northwest tomorrow, winds will increase from the northwest early Sunday.
In addition to the cooler temps, drier air at the surface has made even further inroads with upper 50s noted all the way down to Columbus. Temps will continue to be near normal except for the NE sections where temps will be slightly cooler and may not get out of the 70s.
313 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin extends into the region and will keep warm and mild wx over the area today and Monday.
The influence of the upper trough is diminishing as upper ridging begins to build in and take control. This transition will lead to a slightly drier and warmer forecast for today. Temperatures will be mildly warm in the low 90s and with heat indices in the mid 90s.
Today should be rain-free across the area with said dry air in place and temperatures should have not much of an issue warming into the lower 90s.
But until then, lower heights, cooler air aloft and periodic mid level vorticity lobes will rotate through our region. Our region will lie between a deep continental mid latitude long wave trough traversing east northeastward across the Continental United States before lifting into the Great Lakes, while high pressure remains in the western Atlantic Ocean.
Winds will diminish in speed and rotate from the southwest to the north as a weak cold front moves through the area.
206 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the upper level ridge over the Great Basin. Satellite imagery shows some high clouds moving over the top of the ridge onto the Plains. Lows will be warmer than last night due to the WAA. Sunday breezy southwest winds will turn to the northwest during the morning as a pre-frontal trough moves through. Behind the trough lower dew points will move in. After midnight a weak cold front will move through as winds turn to the east. Lows will be about 10 degrees cooler than tonight. A large upper trough spans the west central portion of the CONUS at the start of the period; however, varying guidance makes its exact placement questionable at this time.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A 500mb ridge of high pressure centered across the Desert SW on Sunday slides westward on Monday, as a strong trough of low pressure drops out of Canada. Weak high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue weak easterly flow across the lower Texas coast through Monday.
The storms are likely to be east of the forecast area border by 12-13z with clouds gradually thinning behind the warm front during the morning hours. The cold front that will drop south tonight will end the heat for quite some time and also reduce the chances of any grass fires by evening. Tonight the boundary will drive south with little moisture to work with and generally clear skies and much cooler temperatures by morning. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s in the south. Monday the cold front stall over northern Missouri while a northern stream short wave drops south into South Dakota.
Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
Southwest winds will increase today and low level thermal ridge will begin to shift south from the central Plains ahead of advancing cold front. This front will approach northern Monday morning as upper trough pushes east across southern Canada. This will put the low level thermal ridge over the area, resulting in a very warm day Monday.
High pressure will build to the north following the front. The best onshore flow will be across SE GA Today, with ample moisture, and troughing leading to higher than normal precipiation chances.
Coverage is forecast to increase through the morning and into the afternoon hours across the area as ridging aloft weakens and northeasterly low level flow increases. High temperatures will be much lower today behind the frontal boundary and due to the onshore flow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across interior southeast Georgia and coastal areas, and the lower 90s across interior northeast Florida. High pressure will build to the north following the front. The best onshore flow will be across SE GA Today, with ample moisture, and troughing leading to higher than normal precipitation chances.
1058 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
1045 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A mid-upper level low centered near the Cay Sal Bank will be responsible for periods of wet and stormy weather across the Florida Keys for the next 48 hrs or so. Visible satellite imagery and CIMSS low-level vorticity analyses place an inverted trough in the easterlies just to the southeast of the Florida Keys. The vanishing act played by the line of showers and storms which pushed through the Middle Keys an hour ago is a little perplexing, with only weak congestus and outflow moving through the Lower Keys now. Breezes will diminish this afternoon through Monday as a ridge axis lifts northward and a trough of low pressure tracks westward into our region.
SFC/LL high well in place over the mid-south this morning, as an upper trough remains over the eastern US. Fridays cold front now well down by the gulf coast, and out of our picture. SFC/LL high here to stay for the next few days as upper trough transitions into an upper high on Monday in response to digging trough across the western US.
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 High pressure continues over the area with light winds and patchy fog. Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast U. with an upper trough over the northeast. The ridge will strengthen over the west today with a northwest flow over Arkansas. Monday and Monday night an upper trough will settle into the Plains. A cold front will move south into Kansas and Missouri Monday.
A broad mid level weakness continues over east Texas extending into the Arklatex region this morning as 500mb ridging remains centered over the Four Corners region and over the Southeast states.
This will bring a cold front down into the northern CWA late tonight. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois tonight ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The cold front will move south to near I-70 by midday on Monday per the HREF/NAM/GFS as it becomes aligned with upper flow. Britt EPS/GEFS mean continue to show the upper trough will dig into the Plains through midweek.
A cold front from Canada will ride steady winds from the northwest and north over the next few days. First widespread freezing temperatures of the season will settle over the region on Monday night.
Based on thickness values and 850 temp projections, today's highs should be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. So, I have bumped up the high temp forecast slightly. Dew points are mostly in the lower 60s, but the morning upper air shows a lot of dry air above the surface.
A weakening cold front may bring some rain on Labor Day, mainly to areas north and west of Pittsburgh. A weakening cold front will approach the area from the northwest Monday morning, with overnight convection helping to drive it southeast.
/issued 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin extends into the region and will keep warm and mild wx over the area today and Monday.
/Issued 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ The main focus continues to be on the big weather changes that will occur this week as we get the first taste of the fall season in the form of a strong, but shallow cold front. The various medium range models all agree that a closed low will develop from the digging trough over the Rockies early this week. This low will become cutoff as the parent trough lifts out and leaves it behind. A strong and shallow cold front will surge south and then slow as it progresses east and encounters the terrain of W AR.
A few thunderstorms will develop across the north late tonight as a warm front develops into the southern Great Lakes. Additional thunderstorms will develop Monday as a cold front moves into the area during the day and then lifts back north Monday night. Southerly flow and clouds will result in warmer temperatures with lows from near 60 southeast to the upper 60s northwest. Surface cold front to drop into Ohio at the south edge of westerly mid level flow and stall out Monday. A surface front associated with a deepening cyclone in southeastern Canada will be in the proximity of the Ohio Valley on Monday night.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 61 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 58 86 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0.
For today, high pressure dominates much of the southeast. Surface analysis this morning has a high pressure ridge draped across the southeastern CONUS, with the recent front having traversed the forecast region and into the Gulf. though possibly a degree or two warmer than this morning.
935 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Weak ridging at the surface providing light E/NE flow across the area with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast. Highs on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s, with mid 90s focused across the northern half and closer to the coast.
More likely will see deeper mixing in the post-trough air mass, which should still yield mid-upper 90s for highs in our southeast counties, while northern areas top out in the mid 80s. Forecast soundings show deep dry layer above shallow surface-based inversion this morning, which should aid in dropping surface dew points as mixing deepens behind the trough through the afternoon. Stronger thermal gradient drops south across the area tonight, dropping temperatures into the lower-mid 50s by daybreak Monday. Could begin to see a few showers work into our far northwest prior to sunrise, as mid-level frontogenesis builds into western portions of the Highway 14 corridor, but believe most rainfall should hold off until after 12Z Monday. Mid-level front pivots over northwest Iowa as the upper level trough digs southward through the Rockies.
The upper trough that brought significant rains to parts of the Coastal Bend will continue to drift westward today, with upper ridging trying to edge in behind the trough. Monday looks very similar to today, with just slight rain chances and perhaps slightly warmer and more humid conditions.
Mild and slightly muggy conditions persisted overnight as 2am temperatures were still in the lower to middle 70s with dews near 70. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, especially west of Highway 65 as low pressure continues to develop further in western Kansas. Another mild night is expected tonight as a cold front will only drop into northern Missouri with light south winds expected to keep temps in the lower 70s. 850mb temps may actually be a degree or so warmer than Sunday given the wsw flow. This along with very little cloudcover and perhaps some compressional warming ahead of the front will likely lead to Labor Day high temps reaching the lower 90s in many locations and have gone 1-2deg above NBM guidance.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A 500mb ridge of high pressure centered across the Desert SW on Sunday slides westward on Monday, as a strong trough of low pressure drops out of Canada. Weak high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue weak easterly flow across the lower Texas coast through Monday.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Surface analysis this morning has a high pressure ridge draped across the southeastern CONUS, with the recent front having traversed the forecast region and into the Gulf. though possibly a degree or two warmer than this morning.
At the upper levels, a 500mb ridge was parked over the western US, while a few weak easterly waves were moving across the southern half of Texas.
Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast U. with an upper trough over the northeast. The ridge will strengthen over the west today with a northwest flow over Arkansas. Monday and Monday night an upper trough will settle into the Plains. A cold front will move south into Kansas and Missouri Monday.
546 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Upper ridging continues to encompass the Central Great Basin and Desert Southwest and is extending into the southern High Plains. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with a tightening pressure gradient over the southern and central Plains. This will allow a potent cold front to start its journey south, albeit slightly slower than previous model runs.
High pressure will continue to build over the NE Pacific through early in the coming week. Currently calling for temperatures in the lower 70s for today and Monday on the North Coast, but those values could easily go higher if the onshore flow does not materialize as expected.
644 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
Strong high pressure will bring hotter temperatures through the Labor Day holiday weekend, with record highs possible each day through Monday.
236 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest on Monday, kicking off some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the northwest mountains.
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will try to make its way south through the Midwest later tonight and early on Labor Day, before stalling out as mid level flow becomes more wswly.
A cold front will approach central Indiana tonight before becoming essentially stationary across the region through the middle of the week. Meanwhile a seasonably strong cold front will approach central Indiana from the upper Mid-West.
245 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has retrograded west a bit over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over srn NV.
High pressure will build to the north following the front. The best onshore flow will be across SE GA Today, with ample moisture, and troughing leading to higher than normal precipitation chances.
High pressure continues over the area with light winds and patchy fog. Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast U. with an upper trough over the northeast. The ridge will strengthen over the west today with a northwest flow over Arkansas. Monday and Monday night an upper trough will settle into the Plains. A cold front will move south into Kansas and Missouri Monday.
Based on thickness values and 850 temp projections, today's highs should be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. So, I have bumped up the high temp forecast slightly. Dew points are mostly in the lower 60s, but the morning upper air shows a lot of dry air above the surface. As high pressure continues to move across the Ohio Valley no change expected for the next 24 hours.
149 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 An upper low is in place just to the south of the area today as weak high pressure ridges across the area at the surface. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s near the coast. The upper low gradually lifts north over the state through mid- week before washing out and ridging building in from the Atlantic, while generally easterly flow remains in place at the surface, with a weak trough moving in along the Carolinas coast region.
244 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Labor Day. Water vapor satellite showed a weak upper-level trough moving across the Appalachians into central NC, and an upper-level ridge across the western Atlantic. Lower heights and northeasterly flow will maintain the "cooler" airmass across the region today, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and highs in the low to mid 80s. The upper-level trough will quickly eject northeast early on Labor Day, then heights build aloft throughout the day as upper-level high pressure approaches from the east. This will help keep central NC dry one more day, and the approaching ridge will raise highs a few degrees, with most areas reaching the mid- 80s.
217 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof shifting eastward across SASK/Manitoba, with west/northwest flow across the northern tier. Upper ridge is along and just offshore the west coast and building northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Cold front has shifted well south/east of our region with breezy northerly winds and cooler air filtering in. Upper ridge along and offshore the west coat will continue to build northward through the Gulf of Alaska as an anomalously deep upper trough develops over the central CONUS the next few days. For tonight, jet streak dives quickly through ND into the upper midwest, driving a secondary cold front through the Northern Plains.
A weak but dry cold front will cross the state today, followed by a much stronger cold front Monday.
400 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding east of Kentucky but not before giving us one more comfortable and pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Temperatures are peaking in the low 80s most places while dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s. This takes place starting Monday when a strong trough digs into the Bitterroots and extends the influence of the large mid level gyre over much of Canada and northern 1/4 of the US.
Strong cold front from the north/nne Monday will bring at least advisory level winds and possibly high winds to the Camas Prairie, Snake Basin, and south to the Nevada border Monday afternoon and evening, with highest speeds expected near Mountain Home.
140 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Mild and slightly muggy conditions persisted overnight as 2am temperatures were still in the lower to middle 70s with dews near 70. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, especially west of Highway 65 as low pressure continues to develop further in western Kansas. Another mild night is expected tonight as a cold front will only drop into northern Missouri with light south winds expected to keep temps in the lower 70s. 850mb temps may actually be a degree or so warmer than Sunday given the wsw flow. This along with very little cloudcover and perhaps some compressional warming ahead of the front will likely lead to Labor Day high temps reaching the lower 90s in many locations and have gone 1-2deg above NBM guidance.