Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1059 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
644 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN. COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD-KPIT AND MOVING STEADILY INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. A SHARP TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES - BUT THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT REACH THE COMMONWEALTH UNTIL AFTER DARK. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PUSH ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP UP INTO THE SE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF SE GA AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF NE FL (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE ZONES) BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH.
AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ENTERS THE AREA.
734 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN. COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KAVP-KSEG-KEKN WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER TONIGHT. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON OVER THE LOWER SUSQ SHOULD MOVE EAST OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. A SHARP TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES - BUT THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT REACH THE COMMONWEALTH UNTIL AFTER DARK. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PUSH ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP UP INTO THE SE.
THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT.
615 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MID DAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
649 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AT THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB WILL PROVIDE FOR A BIT OF A CAP WHICH MAY KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
849 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WITH THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN. A BIT WARMER LAKESIDE.
949 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
310 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST IS NOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
Cold front now generating light showers east and now south of the Louisville area.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION.
Given the light showers that have developed on both sides of the cold front today, figure a few places may just eek out enough rain to measure.
633 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 63 46 62 / 90 90 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 62 41 59 / 90 70 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 60 41 59 / 90 60 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 61 39 57 / 90 60 10 10.
932 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. A LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE NAM AND GFS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SO WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN A TAD.
THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SITU MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS ATTM. 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST A BIT AS THE SURFACE RIDGING LETS GO TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEPPER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
618 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SCALE/POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WHICH RESULTS IN A LITTLE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. STEEPENING OF THE LWO LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BOOST THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S UNDER BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE.
AND SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE THE LAST MAIN SHOW FROM THIS UPPER LOW AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY.
347 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY.
335 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OCCURRING ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR.
FAVOR LOWS ON THE COOLER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.
Upper low continues to spin over Arizona this morning with energy ejecting northeast into the Central Plains on the east side of the trough. The upper low will move northeast into Colorado by this evening while the trough moves eastward into the Plains. Large scale forcing increases tonight across central and eastern Kansas as the upper trough progresses eastward. During the remainder of the day the main upper low pressure will track over the northern plains bringing a cold front through the forecast area mainly in the afternoon and evening.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE LOW. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT REACH 33-35 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0. UPSLOPING MAY ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN HILLS TO SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI AND OPEN UP. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN ND TO MO WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AZ LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI.
246 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
641 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST AREAS. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS MORE CIRRUS MAY DRIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AS A SOUTHWEST STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS STRONG UPPER LOW SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLIDING WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BIT COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
336 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/ THE SFC MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRES STILL SITTING OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING WEST WITH LOW PRES OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE N-NE. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL CO. THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TODAY. TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT.
Dry conditions will persist through tonight as an upper level high remains centered over the Gulf Coast with a ridge extending north along the Mississippi River Valley into the Upper Midwest. An upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will open as it shifts northeast into the Plains over the next 24 hours.
129 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
258 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
202 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THEY TAKE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND GIVEN THEN STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WE LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SHOWING STACKED HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
1253 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM /UPPER LOW/ THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTN.
323 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
403 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD QUICKLY OUT WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TAX HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
254 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low over the AZ/NM boarder with a low of dry mid level air wrapping up into the low. Have trended highs for Friday warmer due to a lack of cold air advection for the bulk of the day. If the sun breaks out earlier in the day, highs could be a couple degrees warmer than the mid 70s that are forecast. Continued some low thunderstorm chances for the evening hours as surface trof and wind shift could provide just enough low level lift for a storm to get going before shifting to our east and south.
149 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
358 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE REGION. INCLUDING A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A FRONT AND TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION.
This suggests that the highest precip accumulation will be between Highway 27 and Highway 283 for the event. Pops should then taper through the overnight period an subsidence increases in the wake of the departing synoptic trof.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL BE QUITE FORMIDABLE AND WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE SENT PACKING AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE MERCURY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
257 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW.
The weak cold front today has caused the ridge of high pressure to be knocked down to more of a westerly flow pattern.
mainly in the Low Rolling Plains and the Eastern Permian Basin. Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the Upper Low responsible for the heavy rain lifting NE through Southern Colorado.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL SURGE NWD ALONG A E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF OVERCAST SKIES AND THE COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
A MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
454 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
142 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WASHES OUT ACROSS AROUND I-64 CORRIDOR.
227 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND PROPAGATE NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
330 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
116 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
409 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
356 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A DRY SLOT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD OVER ERN COLORADO. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE. A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS CONVERGE ON THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. ON THE HIGH RIDGES OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT RANGE DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGS WARMER WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS 10-15 DEGS F WARMER ON THE PLAINS AND ROUGHLY 5-10 DEG F WARMER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
246 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A warm and breezy afternoon is in progress across the region, as a tightening pressure gradient continues to develop over the area ahead of an area of upper level low pressure over northeastern Colorado. Lows tonight should be rather mild, with readings in the low to mid 60s.
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSING TAF SITES.
328 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM /UPPER LOW/ THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTN.
210 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. A PORTION OF THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE FL GULF COAST AND WE SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WEAKENED RIDGE. GOOD RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD INTERACT WITH THIS STALLED OUT FRONT AND PRODUCE AN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
241 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY, THEN DRAG MUCH COOLER AIR THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY.
Behind the line of storms the flash flood threat will be greatly reduced but with the upper low still to the west we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Permian Basin that could produce a more localized flash flood threat into this afternoon so will leave the flash flood watch as is. An upper trough quickly drops south replacing the departing upper low on Friday. This trough will be more positively tilted, keeping the deepest moisture to our east so rain chances Friday will be highest in the eastern Permian Basin.
THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY FAST. WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND /PWATS OF 0.
523 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
353 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE CLOSED LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT SAN JUANS AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AGAIN. A RESIDUAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR RECYCLING OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1140 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CWA AND CAUSING PLENTY OF PRECIP FOR THE REGION. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OPENING UPPER LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND SUNRISE THEN TRACK NE THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DRYING NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.
429 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF TONIGHT AS SE FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AS NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SAT NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL.
200 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2015 FAIR AND WARMER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR FRI AND SAT. SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE AS A TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. BEFORE A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FOR WED AND THU. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AGAIN COOL THINGS OFF AND BRING MORE CLOUDS.
312 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF COUPLED FORCING ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LONG WAVE /CURRENTLY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES/ TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE OVERALL PICTURE AND REASON FOR SHOWERS IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT BUT NOT ENTIRELY CUTOFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS LOW IS NOT ONLY DYNAMIC WITH A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK WRAPPED AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT HAS BROUGHT A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MIGRATE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS PASSAGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THE CAVEAT IS THAT THERE COULD BE ONE LAST HURRAH WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION POSSIBLY COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH.