Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will struggle to get into the low 50s and while some will make it, others won't (Cumberland Plateau). I'm highlighting widespread frost by midnight and freezing temperatures just about area-wide by 4 am.
Through the rest of the week, the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue to drive northwest upper flow over northeast Montana. The next cold front will push through the area Wednesday night and Thursday, delivering additional light snow showers to portions of the region, especially in the southwest zones.
1146 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A cold front currently moving into the Upstate will move through the forecast area this morning along with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Aloft, the deep upper trough has already moved east to the eastern US, while a northwest upper flow remains into AR. Cold again tonight with around freezing temperatures expected in parts of northeast AR. High pressure will move into the area by later this afternoon. with primary concerns the near or sub-freezing temps. with just the far NW portions seeing temps drop to near or around freezing. Do think continued CAA will allow temps to drop to near or just below freezing for several areas within the Freeze Warning already in place. though some SE winds will keep most areas above freezing once again. Will issue a new Freeze Warning for the far NERN counties due to this area being most likely to see near or subfreezing temps.
High pressure will move into the area by later this afternoon. with primary concerns the near or sub-freezing temps. with just the far NW portions seeing temps drop to near or around freezing. Do think continued CAA will allow temps to drop to near or just below freezing for several areas within the Freeze Warning already in place. though some SE winds will keep most areas above freezing once again. Will issue a new Freeze Warning for the far NERN counties due to this area being most likely to see near or subfreezing temps.
Remaining in an unsettled northwest flow pattern, surface winds will shift out of the south into Thursday, ahead of a weak short wave trough.
Rain will be ending from west to east across the local region as a cold front continues to push through.
901 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A cold front currently moving into the Upstate will move through the forecast area this morning along with showers and a few thunderstorms.
06Z surface data has a strong storm system over the eastern Great Lakes while high pressure was over the Plains. A weak boundary ran from the low across northern Illinois and into northeast Iowa. Dew points were in the 20s and higher from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley with single digits and teens across the central and northern Plains.
Thereafter, the high will settle southward further, relaxing the winds fairly rapidly late this afternoon and evening. Lafayette is a bit warmer at 64 over 64 and finally AEX is 56 over 49 degrees. As the ridge builds overhead. high pressure at sfc is slipping down into the central US. Afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than yesterday "mid 60s to near 70" and the winds will be brisk at times especially along the coastal counties and parishes.
The cold front is through the forecast area and winds have picked up in response to strong 8mb/3hr pressure rises. As a result of a secondary trough axis passing, a round of rain/ snow showers are possible during the midday hours mostly across PA, WV, and MD. Winds will subside during this evening as high pressure builds in and daytime mixing is cut off. With the mid level trough axis holding strong across eastern Canada, high pressure has a tough time turning the winds west then southwest so clouds will be around the better part of Thursday as well. Low pressure riding up to our west will bring another quick hitting storm through.
A warm front will move through OR and WA today. The highest amounts will be in the Blue Mountains where orographic effects will enhance amounts.
Weather highlights include highs generally 18-28 degrees warmer than yesterday and light southerly breezes that will become northerly today. Large scale pattern will be characterized by an upper-level ridge evolving eastward to the West Coast with modest 500 hPa height rises forecast over western NEB today. Northwest flow will prevail aloft as the ridge becomes positioned from the Southwest US to the offshore waters of British Columbia by late today. Meanwhile, a surface lee-side trough will sharpen near the Front Range with a modest low developing in eastern CO this afternoon. Highs will be warmer than yesterday with low-level warm air advection early on. The combination of warm temps aloft, decent mixing, and adequate sky cover with high clouds should be conducive for highs in the lower to mid 60s in far southwest NEB.
Places like Blytheville and Walnut Ridge, Arkansas are already reporting windchills below freezing. For today, cold Canadian high pressure will settle into the region. After sundown, light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s areawide. Thursday will be slightly warmer as high pressure shifts east and return flow sets up over the region.
Aloft, the deep upper trough has already moved east to the eastern US, while a northwest upper flow remains into AR. Cold again tonight with around freezing temperatures expected in parts of northeast AR. with primary concerns the near or sub-freezing temps. with just the far NW portions seeing temps drop to near or around freezing. Do think continued CAA will allow temps to drop to near or just below freezing for several areas within the Freeze Warning already in place. though some SE winds will keep most areas above freezing once again. Will issue a new Freeze Warning for the far NERN counties due to this area being most likely to see near or subfreezing temps.
The cold front that moved through overnight brought us a much cooler morning. Temperatures have been slowly rising into the low and mid 40s for most of the area, but only expecting them to top out in the upper 40s and low 50s. Tonight's temperatures are still expected to plummet into the low 30s and even the upper 20s along the Cumberland Plateau.
However, the high temperature forecast for today was left intact. Surface winds will be Northerly 10-15 knots today with higher gusts to near 16-22 knots until the late afternoon when speeds will decrease as the high build over the area.
828 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A cold front currently moving into the Upstate will move through the forecast area this morning along with showers and a few thunderstorms.
930 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure will build in the lower Ohio Valley today and then track east through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight and early Thursday.
Winds are light and southerly, and temperatures range from the single digits across the western SD plains to the lower 20s across northeastern WY. Tonight, an initial impulse associated with a Canadian low pressure system/clipper will dive into the northern plains. This wave will bring another cooldown for Thursday, with highs ranging from the lower 30s to mid 40s.
Cold front will move across TAF sites this afternoon, shifting winds to westerly during the afternoon and northwesterly in the evening. Wind shift today trailing cold front passage this afternoon. SW winds 10-15 kts with seas 2-4 ft will shift WNW late afternoon trailing cold front passage. Winds will continue to veer NNE tonight as high pressure builds NW of the region. Winds veer further ESE Thu into Fri as high with decrease waves as high pressure builds offshore of the US Atlantic coast. Next cold front approaches late Sat. Rip Currents: Low risk today under offshore flow ahead of cold front.
820 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will move out to sea tonight. A strong cold front will cross the forecast area Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Northwest winds will remain strong with gusts to 60 mph possible so the high wind warning looks good for now. Light snow will end west to east today as the upper low pulls away and ridge builds from the west.
553 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 In the wake of the recent late season snow storm, mostly clear skies last night have allowed areas of low clouds and freezing fog to develop. This makes the forecast a bit challenging for this morning as some of the low clouds remain just off the surface, while other areas show that the low clouds have descended all the way into a ground fog.
524 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure associated with the exiting storm system is centered over northwest MO. Weak high pressure is located over western ND. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over eastern NE. Pcpn continues to wrap around the low across eastern SD into central SD. Colder air will remain in place across much of the area, and combined with the new snow cover, temperatures will struggle to rise much above freezing across western SD.
Worked over atmosphere from overnight convection has left the Midsouth cooler than forecast this morning. KGWX VAD wind profile showed only 10 degrees of directional sheer in the lowest 3 kft, with the top of this layer 50kts. The synoptic cold front will trail behind considerably, reaching the MS River at 3 PM. HRRR and RAP models depicted only light QPF ahead of the synoptic cold front over west TN and north MS this afternoon. Considerably cooler temps arrive on Sunday, with high temps as much as 20 degrees below normal under strong northwest flow aloft.
1159 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will move away from the region today and tonight. A strong cold front will cross the forecast area Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
514 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Light snow will end west to east today as the upper low pulls away and ridge builds from the west.
Few showers in the higher elevations north of KBNO-KEUL-KSUN. A weak warm front will cross the area today, bringing sprinkles and light showers, mainly to the mountains. Clouds will remain around tonight and winds will increase in response to an approaching upper level trough, resulting in a mild night.
& Expect a warming trend this weekend with highs climbing well into the 80s today and into the low 90s on Sunday.
Winds should increase over the next couple of hours with gusts of 20-25 kts ahead of the approaching cold front.
Winds will become southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to around 25 mph behind the cold front as it moves through AR today. Then cold air filters into AR, with some freezing temperatures over northern parts of the state.
East to southeast winds were climbing close to 15 mph across the lower Keys and near 10 mph elsewhere. The southeast lower tropospheric flow will likely produce cloud streets into the Gulf waters from the Lower Keys, but not necessarily a strong rain producer over the islands themselves.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: In the wake of the recent late season snow storm, mostly clear skies last night have allowed areas of low clouds and freezing fog to develop. This makes the forecast a bit challenging for this morning as some of the low clouds remain just off the surface, while other areas show that the low clouds have descended all the way into a ground fog.
1003 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 An unseasonably warm day is expected as stout high pressure remains overhead. Highs will range from the lower 80s along Nature Coast to the middle and upper 80s elsewhere. This will occur ahead of and behind a powerful cold front and line of thunderstorms.
749 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the approach of a cold front. Eastern CONUS ridging should is expected to maintain dry weather for the majority of the area today, while temperature stays about 20 degrees above average with the region in the vast warm sector under the ridge. The models remain in general agreement that deep cutoff low pressure will emerge from the midwest and dig over the Upper Ohio Region for the start of the new week. The main rain event is progged later Sunday and Sunday night as the systems cold front squeezes eastward under a crossing southerly, moisture-laden jet. QPF amounts remain in dispute with the main point perhaps being that the upslope enhancement appears to capped via a strong inversion resulting from the warm advection on the low level jet.
759 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will move out to sea tonight. A strong cold front will cross the forecast area Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
1056 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Moisture wrapping around the back side of a deep upper level low over the plains will be gradually eroding today with scattered snow showers diminishing from west to east. Ridging aloft will be shifting eastward as the next upstream trough digs sharply across the Western States.
/issued 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ Strong upper level low pressure system along Nebraska-Kansas border will be edging slowly east while a tight northwesterly height gradient will be over the northeastern 3/4 or so of our area through early afternoon at least before edging east as well. This looks like a very good setup for a cold night - and guidance temperatures are consistently near freezing. So, we are forecasting sub-freezing temperatures tonight this area as well, but cannot justify including within this Freeze Watch. After the chilly start, it looks like a very nice day with temperatures recovering mostly into the lower 70s and winds remaining light.
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Showers and quickly breaking up and little if any thunder expected areawide as cold front just exiting eastern cwa. Tornado Watch was allowed to be dropped earlier than the original 6 AM CDT expiration time with just some lingering moderate showers and isolated storms along the cold front which continues to advance through the region. Gusty W/NW winds will follow in wake of the cold front so have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the entire region until 7 PM this evening. Post-frontal temperatures will be noticeably cooler with unusually strong CAA occurring by mid April standards.
I did remove Yuma county from the High Wind Warning. Northwest winds will remain strong with gusts to 60 mph possible so the high wind warning looks good for now. Light snow will end west to east today as the upper low pulls away and ridge builds from the west.
Southeast winds will increase today, and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected. Strong thunderstorms along an approaching cold front are moving through Mississippi, and timing of this feature and chance for severe weather tomorrow remain on track from previous package. Isolated showers are possible today, and southeasterly flow continues to increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms along and just ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will move across Acadiana this early morning. /issued 540 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ A cold front is pushing through southwest Louisiana this morning. Drier and cooler air tonight as clouds will slowly dissipate and morning lows dropping into the 40s. The week ahead looks to be dry and on the cooler side with rains returning late in the week.
High pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring a warming trend to Utah this weekend. A ridge of high pressure is shifting over the Great Basin today, leading to mostly sunny skies across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning. The primary exception to this is in far northern Utah, where deeper moisture riding along the northern portion of this ridge is producing mostly cloudy skies for locations north of Salt Lake City. The warming trend will continue Sunday, as the ridge axis continues to shift eastward, and a warm southerly flow develops over Utah by Sunday afternoon.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure associated with the exiting storm system is centered over northwest MO. Weak high pressure is located over western ND. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over eastern NE. Pcpn continues to wrap around the low across eastern SD into central SD. Colder air will remain in place across much of the area, and combined with the new snow cover, temperatures will struggle to rise much above freezing across western SD.
Surface analysis at 3 am showed a weakening low pressure center over southeast NE with main low now over northern MO. Temperatures have been a bit cooler than expected for parts of the area early this morning. The NAM seemed to be doing a decent job so trended readings toward a blend of the NAM and some of the high resolution short range models. There is some chance of freezing rain but at this time it does not look to be a major impact.
An upper level trough of low pressure remains over the central conus this morning with moderate snow, along with thundersnow occurring in southeast South Dakota. However, based on the 3 KM NAM and the experimental HRRR, higher amounts are possible in Deuel County due to easterly fetch of moisture and the Buffalo Ridge.
/issued 540 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ A cold front is pushing through southwest Louisiana this morning. Drier and cooler air tonight as clouds will slowly dissipate and morning lows dropping into the 40s. The week ahead looks to be dry and on the cooler side with rains returning late in the week.
1015 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 A potent low pressure system carrying abundant moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Widespread showers will continue into Sunday as the low progresses east.
1002 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the approach of a cold front. The models remain in general agreement that deep cutoff low pressure will emerge from the midwest and dig over the Upper Ohio Region for the start of the new week. The main rain event is progged later Sunday and Sunday night as the systems cold front squeezes eastward under a crossing southerly, moisture-laden jet. QPF amounts remain in dispute with the main point perhaps being that the upslope enhancement appears to capped via a strong inversion resulting from the warm advection on the low level jet.
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 An upper level trough of low pressure remains over the central conus this morning with moderate snow, along with thundersnow occurring in southeast South Dakota. However, based on the 3 KM NAM and the experimental HRRR, higher amounts are possible in Deuel County due to easterly fetch of moisture and the Buffalo Ridge.
Models show a cold front moving across the PAH forecast area Monday morning.
1238 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for a continuation of dry weather.
315 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Models thus far have a good handle on a cold front currently touring far southwest KS and adjacent CO.
High pressure is in control of the Great Basin, and the only items to deal with are stratus and fog (ST/FG).
Currently, Arctic cold front has pushed through the Northern Plains, with gusty northwest winds and strong CAA across the region in its wake. Rapid clearing continues over western North Dakota with lingering low stratus clouds and light snow showers along to east of the highway 83 corridor this afternoon. Arctic high pressure builds across eastern Montana & western North Dakota tonight. High pressure remains quasi-stationary through the day Monday, then slides south-southeast into central South Dakota Monday night.
A sharp, amplified upper ridge axis over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to move east on Monday. Southerly flow will open the door to a negatively tilted cold front on Monday evening.
Large pressure/height gradients on the backside of the upper Midwest cyclone will translate to blustery northwest winds today, which in turn will promote continued low-level cold advection.
148 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 A deep trough of low pressure will drop into the Plains and upper Midwest/Great Lakes area today, with the western edge skirting down the Front Range in a northerly flow. This will bring much colder air down the eastern side of the divide, with some of this cooler air spilling over into northwest Colorado.
400 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over northern MN. The upper low is forecast to move over Lake michigan by 12Z Tue.
The cloud cover will prop up our temperatures, so latest forecast for overnight lows is warmer than previous forecast based on the consensus of the latest 12Z model guidance. The Clipper will slow down and wind up near the southwest Great Lakes tonight into Monday, with the large upper low over the MN and WI region.
1054 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 06Z TAF Cycle: VFR conditions with high cirrus expected for another 4-8 hours or so ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will quickly sweep through the Panhandles from around 09z-11z through about 14z-16z Monday morning. There also remains concern for some freezing fog or even some light freezing drizzle or light snow for a few hours behind the front which could reduce vsbys. Can't rule out a brief period of wind shear around 30 knots just ahead of the cold front. A strong cold front is expected to enter the Panhandles around 6 AM Monday morning.
Along the leading edge of the cold air, very light precipitation is expected to begin as light rain with a transition to light snow as temperatures drop below freezing through the evening. For a brief time over a portion of east central Colorado there is just enough of a warm layer aloft for the possibility of light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain between 06Z-12Z.
A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Monday morning, with gusty north winds developing following the frontal passage. Temps falling into the low/mid 20s during the day tomorrow will result in bigger impacts on the roads than we normally see with even light snow accumulations.
This energy organizes into a potent upper system, de-amplifying the portion of the upper trough over the Southeast and bringing a more west to east zonal upper flow.
A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area today.
We put most of the focus for higher snowfall amounts along the Pine Ridge and Alliance where the upslope flow will be the greatest. The models continue to show the entrance region of the upper level jet sliding southeast which will enhance frontogenetical banding, and potential instability again near the Cheyenne Ridge and the Laramie Range. The models are keying on this region well, but we are bit more concerned about the I-80 summit and possibly the foothills, where this low level arctic boundary may tend to get hung up for a little while before moving south during the afternoon.
Stronger upper trough digging through ND will continue to dig southeastward through the forecast area tonight, with the upper low closing off and remaining in place across the region into Monday. At the surface have an area of low pressure stretching from far SW Ontario through nrn MN and into NE SD. As the low drops southeastward into the state this evening, the area of snow to move through from northwest to southeast bringing a burst of fairly intense snowfall to the forecast area. As the snow tapers off, northwest winds are expected to pick up behind the cold front.
High pressure is in control of the Great Basin, and the only items to deal with are stratus and fog (ST/FG). The trough expected to move in tonight has been trending weaker and weaker, and now it is barely expected to bring precipitation even to Stanley, so even the mountains will barely see low chance PoPs, and the Snake River plain should be dry. The main thing this trough will do is break down the stranglehold of the ridge in the northern Great Basin. The next trough, that arrives at the very end of this period late Wed night, will have an easier time entering the Gem State. As is normal with dominating high pressure, wind should remain light and terrain-driven.
A cold front moves into the forecast area after midnight, resulting in increasing northwest wind.