Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN DRYING AT LEAST OVER THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. BEYOND SATURDAY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEN AS NEXT TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.
756 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WARMING UP COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
COOLER WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY.
Still a threat for severe storms across extreme southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours as conditions remain favorable in the vicinity of the warm front near the red river.
/ISSUED / HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO W GA TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE 870S TO LOWER 90S.
941 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE HAS MOVED TO THE MONTANA BORDER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHER OREGON TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
1201 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW.
1151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 AVIATION CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
An upper low will move out of the central Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A warm front extending ESE from low pressure over KS will lift north toward the area tonight, continuing north through the area Saturday.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA.
SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT HAS JOGGED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SET OF NWP RUNS. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA AND TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT AS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY ACROSS THE SOUTH DESPITE THE NORTHWARD JOG OF THE LOW. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED MINOR DISTURBANCES STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH TONIGHT.
842 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF CLEARING TO A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST IS SEEING THE LOWER STUFF HANG ON.
Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest Kansas into Nebraska. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south central Kansas.
TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY AS A LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
In addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains. Models suggest most unstable CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the low levels continue to moisten. The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into the Ozarks during the day.
EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE LOW PRESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS NM/OK/TX BORDERS. UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SWING N/NE AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEG TILTED. HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD. BUT SURFACE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR FREEZING. OVERALL THINK TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO BELIEVE SNOW WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING.
KETCHAM NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a potent trough across the Southern Plains. This trough will take on more of a negative tilt as it ejects northeast into the Midwest, bringing chances for showers/thunderstorms through the period. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the Midwest, isentropic lift will commence in response late tonight on the nose of a 55-knot low-level jet. This will result in light shower activity initially late tonight as the column saturates, but moisture advection will markedly increase by mid/late morning Saturday as the low-level jet veers into the Ohio Valley atop a surface warm front lifting north.
A weak cold front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning. Lows tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.
CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/TONIGHT/ EASTERLY FLOW STRATUS/STRATOCU WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. H300 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING STRETCHED FROM PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT IS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 81 65 82 / 20 60 70 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 80 63 81 / 10 70 60 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 79 63 81 / 20 70 70 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 79 58 80 / 20 70 60 70.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER ERN CO. A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN AL IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONSOLIDATE FARTHER NORTH ON SAT AND INDUCE A SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAD 50 TO 70 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A 110 KNOT JET ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA. BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA.
BUT GENERALLY THINKING THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN BASED ON SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PREVENTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES REINFORCING A BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NUMBER OF HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NC. POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING. THE NEXT UPPER LOW/WAVE DROPS THRU ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
735 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW.
Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of the area.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THEN SHIFT QUICKLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY. A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY LOWER IN THE EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS SOMEWHAT DRIER HAS DESCENDED INTO THE LOWEST LAYERS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
952 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW (RAIN STILL IN THE FAR NORTH) OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG I-80 FROM THE SUMMIT TO BRIDGEPORT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
509 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.
958 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WAS ABLE TO KEEP CONVECTION FAIRLY ISOLATED AND RATHER TAME DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS LOW STRATUS BUT THERE REMAINS PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
This will occur under increasing mid-upper ascent of large upper low now entering southern Plains.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX.
BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TN. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1105 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 CUMULUS/STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS HOLDING STUBBORNLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT/BAND OF SHOWERS WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE TO DETER FROST DEVELOPMENT. TO THE LOWER 40S MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THESE RAIN SHOWERS. TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 50S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
632 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PREVENTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES REINFORCING A BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NUMBER OF HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NC. POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
622 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 CUMULUS/STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS HOLDING STUBBORNLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT/BAND OF SHOWERS WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE TO DETER FROST DEVELOPMENT. TO THE LOWER 40S MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THESE RAIN SHOWERS. TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 50S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. RUNNING ONLY NEAR A TENTH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE WINDS UP TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RAIN POTENTIAL IS LESS.
749 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
742 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 AVIATION CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
655 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 18z/1pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending from West Virginia southwestward to an area of low pressure over the Texas panhandle. As a vigorous upper low noted on the latest water vapor imagery over northern New Mexico pivots northeastward, the front will get a push northward tonight. While the upper low appears rather progressive, a dry E/NE low-level flow north of the front will likely impede the initial northward progress of precip. Still looks like a rather wet weekend in central and eastern IL as a potent upper level low and cyclonic surface system works its way into the Midwest from the southern Plains.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING ON THIS SOLUTION BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON INITIALIZATION AND THINK ITS SOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS PLAUSIBLE. TRAILING BEHIND THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA TO DRYDEN LINE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF WHICH MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY.
WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
648 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NRN TX. THE LOW IS SHOWN TO HAVE MOVED INTO NWRN KS. SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ALONG THE NEB/KS STATE LINE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SPREAD SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER MIDNIGHT A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
/ISSUED 222 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ROUGHLY HALF OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ND. BUT IT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD.
with MVFR cigs developing over the area in the 08-10z time frame in response to the low level jet. Broad upper trough over the northern and central Rockies will gradually move east Wednesday with a trailing cold front pushing into northeast OK by late afternoon.
921 PM MST TUE MAY 10 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ONGOING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTH PLAINS LOW.
A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IS CLOSER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THEN LAST NIGHT.
1032 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MT AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER ONTARIO. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OPEN UP BY THU. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE FOR TONIGHT. MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN ON THU NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE NORTH.
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA ACRS THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY E/SE BREEZE OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THIS FCST CYCLE AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z WED. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. /ISSUED 438 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ LATEST LAPS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON 300-310K SURFACES ON ITS COOL SIDE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF BUILDING SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NE MT WITH A PAIR OF WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN SD E-SE TO NORTHERN IL. WHILE THERE WERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WARM FRONT. EXPECTED CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NORTH. LOWER 60S SOUTH (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.