Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Surface ridging over the eastern half of the state will be sliding away to the east today allowing easterly winds to veer to the southeast by Sunday morning. Dry air over the region will retreat with onshore flow this morning leading to increasing moisture in the lower levels and an increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the area through tonight. Temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend across the region as upper ridging traverses the area this weekend. Sunday night deeper moisture will begin pooling along and ahead of the incoming cold front.
510 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through tonight bringing plenty of sunshine to the area along with temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, despite an easterly flow over the forecast area.
630 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 A strong upper ridge will drift from west of the MS River Valley into the southeast states during the short term.
1057 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 The Florida Keys are clouds and rain free this morning as a cold front passed over us early this morning. Current observations show north to northeast winds near 10 mph over the Upper Keys while the Lower Keys were 10 to 15 knots with gusts near 20 mph. Rain chances will be nil with clear skies and nicer temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Freezing level this morning is at 13,000 feet, and the -20C level at 23,000 feet. /issued 338 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ The front that stalled over the gulf will get brought back to the area by the next cold front that will begin to form later today out west.
A winter storm may bring significant impacts to northeast 430 AM Update: A brief update was carried out to add mention of freezing drizzle which has developed along with areas of fog out ahead of the main snow showers early this morning.
A closed upper level low and deep upper level trough along the west coast will move slowly eastward today over southern Oregon and Idaho.
954 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Building high pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool conditions for the weekend. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions today with limited cloud coverage.
Some freezing drizzle is also possible with the fog. Upper level analysis places ridge over the plains with low just off the northern Pacific coast. For tonight, low level moisture continues to pull into the area with some drizzle or light freezing drizzle developing over eastern portions of the area. Moist air will continue to pull in over the top of the low Sunday morning, spreading areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle over the area. Broad lift from the approaching upper low then pushes easterly by mid-morning into mid-day with snow spreading into the west, and rain developing over central parts of the state where warmer air pulled into the system remains. There is still some question on the timing of the transition as some models want to hang on to the warmer air a bit longer than others.
331 AM PST Sat Mar 3 2018 A low pressure system along the West Coast will move inland tonight and Sunday. Drier and a little warmer for Sunday.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the plains with low just off the northern Pacific coast. For tonight, low level moisture continues to pull into the area with some drizzle or light freezing drizzle developing over eastern portions of the area. Moist air will continue to pull in over the top of the low Sunday morning, spreading areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle over the area. Broad lift from the approaching upper low then pushes easterly by mid-morning into mid-day with snow spreading into the west, and rain developing over central parts of the state where warmer air pulled into the system remains. There is still some question on the timing of the transition as some models want to hang on to the warmer air a bit longer than others.
615 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 North-Northeast winds today in the 5 to 10 knot range will maintain dry air in the low levels, with just some passing mid clouds (10-15 KFT) around this afternoon and evening.
1058 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Strong low pressure south of the New England Coast will slowly move further away from the forecast area through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley will move eastward.
401 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Current surface map places weak low across southeast Montana, with warm front just north of the Black Hills.
Another nice day expected across the region today as high pressure continues to wedge in from the north. A trough moving into the west coast will cause pressures to begin falling in the lee of the Rockies today and especially tonight.
945 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure over central Canada will slowly build eastward into the area today and Sunday.
A cold upper level trough is centered along the Oregon coast and will linger today with isolated to numerous showers and snow showers.
/issued 310 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Low-level moisture is creeping nw into the se PB this AM with light se winds east of the lee trough. Any clouds/light fog that develop will dissipate by mid morning and we expect another day with above normal high temps, especially across the w where 85h temps are 6-9C warmer. As an upper low moves e into the central plains a cold front will have been moving s and is forecast to arrive INVOF I-20 corridor around 12Z Mon. This will re-enforce cooler/even drier air across the area on Mon/Tue. Warmer Wed/Thur with dry air moderating some.
1029 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
A cold upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern California will continue to produce scattered showers, low snow levels, and isolated thunderstorms into Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday night will be chilly with low temperatures down near freezing in the inland valleys.
541 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
Elevated northerly winds behind the cold front, now south of Florida, has transported a very dry and cooler airmass into the region. 15 inches on the 12Z sounding at TBW is the lowest on record for this day. While temperatures will be cooler today, they will be just below seasonal norms. A N to slight NE component to the low level flow may be able to keep min RH values from falling below the mid 30s along the coastline of Brevard County southward.
730 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure over central Canada will slow build eastward into the area this weekend.
Today will be quite pleasant for early March across the forecast area, with dry air and light winds continuing under the influence of high pressure over our region. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure at the surface and ridging in the upper levels will contribute to an exceptional day of weather for Saturday.
Latest satellite data shows a broad upper ridge across the southeast US and an upper low across the northwest, with southwesterly flow aloft across the area. At the surface, a lee trough has developed to the west, with southeast flow off the Gulf of Mexico and increasing low level moisture. Increasing clouds may keep afternoon highs a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, but we are still looking for highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Higher dewpoints will keep overnight lows warmer tonight.
540 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Building high pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool conditions for the weekend. The clouds should erode by afternoon as high pressure builds further across the areas. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies are expected under the high.
933 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Ridge of high pressure is drifting dead overhead this morning, resulting in quiet conditions and minimal cloud cover. Overnight composite analysis reveals upper level ridging building across the plains and the western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. flanked by deep closed lows over the Pac NW and the departing major winter storm off the New England coast. High pressure/dry air remain the dominate forces across the region throughout the weekend. Upstream ridging/thermal axis slowly edges into the region and we will continue to see some mid and high cloud cover streaming through the region as a result.
301 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Current surface map places weak low across southeast Montana, with warm front just north of the Black Hills.
Surface temperatures are still forecast to remain above freezing, but the column will be cooling enough to potentially support a brief change over to snow in the far northwest portions of the area before it comes to an end Saturday morning. There is some concern that we may lose saturation in the ice nucleation zone, so we may still end up with just a very cold rain with temperatures just above freezing.
1013 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Upper low near the four corners region will continue to sink slowly southeastward into Northern New Mexico tonight as it weakens and fills. Friday will be dry across the district as the upper low shifts eastward towards TX.
The forecast for tonight looks on track with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50s and increasing chances for rain showers after midnight. Warm front has lifted north to the I-64 corridor, with fairly extensive stratus spreading in behind it. Min temps on Christmas Eve morning will be near or below freezing, so any residual moisture on surfaces will freeze.
The clouds were ahead of a low pressure system centered near the Four Corners region, and a mid-level trough axis that extended southwestward to near Yuma.
416 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 A deep layered ridge centered near the Yucatan Channel shows up prominently on the GOES-16 mid-level water vapor channel, exposing the wide expanse of dry air across the Western Caribbean. This ridge complex has built northward in the last 12 hours as the short wave near Bermuda progresses east. The amplifying ridge was corroborated by last night's 00Z RAOB analyses, indicating rising heights across the Gulf and southeastern United States at all standard levels.
1146 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 A warm front was located from Monroe to Mccomb to Slidell to just south of Pascagoula.
Dense fog has not been widespread or prolonged but will continue to monitor the Highway 191 and I-70 routes in this region. The closed low trekking across Utah and Colorado today will continue to bring convective snow showers to parts of western Colorado and eastern Utah this evening. Forecast models are shutting the snowfall off across eastern Utah around 6pm this evening, then tapering off across the higher terrain in western Colorado by midnight.
348 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 A cold front stretched across southern Missouri into northwest Arkansas early this morning will drop southeast into the Mid South this morning and stall out in the vicinity of the Interstate 40 corridor. Temperatures ahead of the front today will be quite warm with highs ranging from the upper 50s in northeast Arkansas to the lower 70s in northeast Mississippi. A reinforcing cold front will move across the Mid South by Christmas Eve with even colder temperatures anticipated.
A cold front was located from northeast Oklahoma through west Texas and into eastern New Mexico. The cold front will continue to move east on Friday but at a much slower rate. Temperatures will be on the warm side ahead of the cold front with highs from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees. The cold front will continue to push east Friday night and should be just east of the forecast area by early Saturday morning. Cooler air will start to move in behind the front with lows Saturday morning ranging from around 40 degrees to the mid 50s. Temperatures will be much cooler than Friday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
The next surface cold front is pushing into northwest ND, with a light snow developing ahead of it across northcentral ND. Cold high pressure remains over the CWA, with most sites staying in the single digits above zero and a few lingering below.
/Issued 500 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ The cold front moved across the fcst area a few hours ahead of the models fcsts. On Friday, an upper level low pressure system will zip across the region.
327 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Shwrs rapidly developing ahead of an approaching upper low over wrn NM. Upper trof to move into the Upper Red River Valley tonight, finally forcing the front and associated convection to push ewd. Much cooler temps are expected for Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Clouds unlikely to clear completely, however, as another disturbance/cold front is fcst to dive sewd in nw flow aloft Saturday night.
/issued 340 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the week and early weekend as broad high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Low temperatures will remain in the mid 60s across the southern counties and east coast metro areas and in the low 60s across the interior and west. A weak cold front stalls over over north-central Florida over the next few days, some moisture will pool over the area allowing for early morning fog to develop the next several nights. High temperatures will warm up into the low 80s along the east coast metro and mid 80s out west. Models continue to suggest next cold front approaching the panhandle of Florida this weekend will weaken the mid level high pressure over the region. High pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Similar to what has occurred farther to the southwest over Iowa today, a short period of drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible especially Fayette, Clayton, and Grant Counties this evening before any precip switches to snow with the introduction of ice in cloud. It likely would be a very small time/space window of overlap with sufficient moisture depth for drizzle and no cloud ice, but will have to closely monitor for any freezing drizzle this evening. Similar temps are expected for Christmas Eve Day ahead of a cold front that will drop through overnight with a reinforcing surge of cold air as 850 mb temps fall towards -20C in its wake by Christmas Day.
938 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Upper trough stretches through the northern plains and over the Rockies, with the upper low over the Four Corners region. With high pressure over the Dakotas, winds are generally variable around 5 to 10 kts, and temperatures early this afternoon are still in the teens. Upper trough will weaken tonight as it shifts eastward, and a broader trough will begin pushing into the region with another cold front.
High pressure continues to build into the area this evening. This will be in advance of the trough the will graze the northeastern portions of the forecast area on Saturday.
1103 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Through Tonight: At 2335Z KCBK (Colby) reported 700 ft AGL ceilings and a 5 mile visibility associated with freezing fog. Although freezing fog (vis >=5 miles) at Colby is not anticipated to persist for long or expand in coverage, it should be noted that with temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s, a trace of ice accumulation cannot be entirely ruled out.
312 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure should return light rain chances today, with more widespread rain expected tonight and Saturday.
A low pressure system will move across the region which may also produce some precipitation but again, confidence is too low to include at this time. /issued 319 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Upper low crossing the Four-corners this evening on track to swing progressively east Friday, crossing the southern Texas Panhandle late in the day. Cold front passing first, this evening, has been running faster than scheduled. Still some uncertainty with precise upper low path and depth, so a bit of lingering uncertainty elsewhere though bulk of solutions remain dry elsewhere in our area. Drier and warmer most areas Saturday before next cold front dives southward late Saturday night.
A cold front will continue to move south across the area over the next few hours causing winds to shift to where they are coming from the north. /issued 535 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are currently in place at all of the terminals, however, changes are in store for later tonight as a cold front will pass through the region. The mild temperatures will come to an abrupt end, however, as a strong cold front moves across the area late tonight and into Friday morning. In addition, an upper level trough moving overhead will generate scattered showers across the area beginning overnight and continuing into Friday afternoon.
123 AM PST Fri Dec 22 2017 Ridge builds across the west resulting in light winds and weak valley inversions developing through the end of the week. Periods of gusty winds are possible in the high Sierra through the weekend. The eastern periphery of an upper level ridge will edge its way across the western U. Since we will not be positioned directly under the ridge axis, the high Sierra will still be able to catch the southern fringe of jet winds.
Improving cigs expected thereafter until the cold front Friday evening.
256 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 SHRA across the far s-se CWFA this AM are in assocn with an approaching upper shrtwv trough and an intensifying upper level jet overhead. Meanwhile the cold front as of this writing was located just south of the Pecos River. There is good model agreement that the upper shrtwv trough will pass to the n this PM and there could be a few -SHRA in assocn with mid level thermal trough. Today will be much cooler than previous 2 days and in fact today's high temps will be the 06Z/Fri temps across most of the PB and temps will rise very slowly from lows this morning, at least for areas n and e of the Pecos River.
Already, cloud cover ahead of northward moving warm front is poised to move back into southwest portions. In advance, warm advection will increase as the surface warm front moves through the area. Guidance is also trending toward a quicker end to rain Saturday, with most solutions showing the cold front exiting the area during the mid/late morning hours and lingering showers ending shortly thereafter.
1221 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure and cold front bring a soggy Friday night and Saturday. Strong upper level trough reinforces cold air for Christmas. Fairly quiet overnight, but with warm front pressing northward through the region we will see an increase in clouds. 5h trough axis shifts eastward this period, with strong moisture advection along cold front in southwest flow for Friday night. There is well above normal moisture in place and dynamics are being supplied by cold front and moderate cyclogenesis in association with a wave moving up along the front.
330 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Cold front currently pushing into far southeast Oklahoma early this morning with gusty northwest winds behind the front. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible near the Interstate 44 corridor and in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before precip shifts east Saturday morning. Also, depending on how quickly the heavier precipitation spreads north of the front today, there is some potential for freezing rain or freezing drizzle if temperatures can wet bulb below freezing.
353 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 A surface front, along with a broad upper level trough will cross the region today.
The fog should linger into mid-morning before burning off due to increased turbulent mixing and buoyancy in advance of an approaching trough axis.
936 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017 A cold front dropping down from the north will bring generally light snow tonight through Friday night.
An upper trough currently over the Four Corners region will dive southeast into Central New Mexico Friday morning before moving eastward into the Texas Panhandle and Central Oklahoma Friday evening. As the trough approaches, southwesterly flow aloft combined with southerly low level flow will result in a rapid increase in deep layer moisture. Large scale ascent ahead of the upper trough will spread across the area tonight and convection is expected to develop across much of the area after midnight. As the cold front moves into and slowly across the area after sunrise Friday, vertical ascent will increase further increase the coverage of precipitation across the area. The greatest risk will be during the daytime and evening Friday ahead of the advancing cold front.
223 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 A cooler more winter like pattern has started to set up over the area on the backside of a cold front that is currently moving through SE MO. This cooler airmass will settle into the area as high pressure builds into the central plains. High temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid 30s to upper 30s in central MO. The surface pattern will remain similar with high pressure entrenched over our area keeping cooler temps in place.
1227 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Light rain begins late tonight with some freezing drizzle possible over southern Michigan and then drying out by Saturday morning.
243 AM MST Fri Dec 22 2017 A cold front will move to the south this morning. Cold Canadian high pressure will build into the forecast area today. Clouds will linger over the area as the low to mid portions of the atmosphere remains moist remains in an upper trough that extends south from a Hudson Bay upper low. Cloudy skies will continue Friday Night and Saturday as upper trough remains over the area.
Light snow has developed across the northwest, and will continue south and east as a cold front drops south tonight. The cold front will move through the state between midnight and 6 am bringing a quick shot of light snow to the region. The aviation hazard for the 06Z TAFs will be low VFR/MVFR conditions, as a cold front moves from northwest to southeast across ND.
1200 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure should return light rain chances today, with more widespread rain expected tonight and Saturday.
Drizzle and freezing drizzle look to continue this evening with the light snow across northern portions of the forecast area. Already receiving a few reports in Dallas County of freezing drizzle/sleet mix with a very small band that has developed over western Polk County and expands west into Audubon County. Forecast soundings continue suggest the entire column to drop below freezing later this afternoon into the evening. Confident the Des Moines Metro area will see fzdz (especially on elevated surfaces as road temperatures still range from 35F to 40F) but this fzdz is likely to impact the evening rush hour and cannot rule out bridges/overpasses getting a glaze.
We will be firmly in the warm sector with a brisk SW flow aloft, so with the strong warm advection, highs before the fropa may reach the lower to mid 60s.
Did introduce VCSH late in the TAF period due to the approaching cold front, with best chances from VCT-ALI-CRP.
331 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 A warm front will push precipitation into the area today, mainly along the northern tier of Pennsylvania and north. This will result in a mixture of snow, rain, and freezing rain for much of the day. Mesoscale models showing that the bulk of the precipitation will fall just north of the state border, nearer the upper warm front. Likewise have lowered the pops a bit better in line with the lowered QPF and latest models. To the south, cold air will hang tough as well, but warm layer will result in sleet and freezing rain for much of the day. Big high to the east will continue to reinforce the low level cold air through the daylight hours.
359 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough located over southern SASK and southern MAN, and another over northern SASK. Southern trough will move east across the northern valley and southern MAN for today. A cold front located over northwest ND will sweep across the forecast area today.
339 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Compact closed mid-level low pressure center will move across the southern half of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today and this evening. Mid-level flow becomes near-zonal Saturday, inducing development of lee trof, which will move into western sections.
Ridging slowly builds in for tonight with some clearing expected, especially west.