Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The early timing and widespread, more stabilizing rain this mid morning eased the tempest of the this upper low for such as time as this afternoon. The cooler air held into among the forests of central Louisiana. The low level winds are shifting around as the upper low swings in overhead. Strong cold front will move through in the wake of the large precipitation field with winds becoming northwesterly with gusts upwards of 22kts for a brief period this evening. The warm front is gusting into central LA with mid to upper 60s and lower 60 dew points.
121 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
Low pressure to the south tonight. Cold front with light rain and snow showers late tonight into Wednesday.
With the approach and passage of a cold front this morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop just prior to frontal passage, with a few storms possibly becoming severe.
Snowfall should end from west to east as it passes, save for some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide north of Monarch Pass. Northwest flow across the region Wednesday night moderates through the day Thursday, as broad upper trough continue to translate east through the Central Conus.
Still expect low pressure to strengthen over central and eastern Great Lakes today with sharpening trof at around 10k feet. Increasing northerly winds in the wake of this trof will pull colder air southward across southern WI today. Several upstream short wave trofs will provide necessary lift to generate areas of mostly light rain and snow this morning across southern WI. Main snow for the Milwaukee metro will be this afternoon but with lesser amounts and with the likelihood of pavement temperatures remaining above freezing, had enough confidence to drop advisory in this area.
Current surface analysis places low over central and eastern Montana with weak ridge over central and eastern North Dakota. Upper level analysis places weak trough sliding through central/eastern Montana with some light snow starting to develop.
223 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 It will be warm and windy ahead of a cold front today. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues are windy conditions ahead of a cold front this afternoon and possible severe thunderstorms tonight. VAD wind profile trends support the model guidance of a strong low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front. The high-resolution models have a timing of mainly 900 pm to 200 am. Leaned toward the higher temperature guidance ahead of the front today. Also followed the higher guidance tonight because of mixing associated with the front. Drying will occur behind the cold front Thursday.
Severe weather outbreak appears about to unfold over the Lower Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Models indicate 500 mb winds will reach 100 knots over the Lower Ohio Valley by morning. In any case, development will become more widespread overnight as the parent 500 mb trough and associated cold front approach from the west. There will be multiple rounds of convection through the night, especially across the Lower Ohio Valley. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued shortly for the Lower Ohio Valley counties, which is where the heaviest qpf axis is indicated by WPC and area forecast offices. The surface cold front will move east across our region Wednesday morning.
247 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 The advance of a strong cold front has brought showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Region for today. Late day cold frontal passage will end these threats and return cold and snow showers chances to the region. After the FROPA, upper troughing, cold advection, and limited lake and terrain enhancement should result in scattered snow showers through Thursday as temperatures return to sub average.
Combination of strong low-level CAA and lingering stratus associated with the departing upper-level trough will yield much cooler conditions compared to yesterday. Most areas should dip to around or just below freezing under a clear sky and light winds. CWA will reside within warm sector of this disturbance and leaned toward warmer MET guidance as models have a large well- known cold bias under this scenario which is expected to unfold on Thursday.
Storms to end behind the wind shift as drier air moves in and the upper lvl trof axis shifts off to the east. Looking for drier and cooler air through the rest of the week.
430 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Thunderstorms will continue through the first part of the day as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. Behind the front, a cooler airmass will settle into the region through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, the convective line associated with the cold front is pushing east across central Indiana and into northwest Ohio.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with some gusts up to 35 mph.
The air mass remains quite unstable, with very steep lapse rates and cold temps aloft expected to sustain this convection as the upper trough continues to traverse E across the Srn Plains overnight. However, confidence remains quite a bit lower for severe as the best forcing with the approaching upper trough will remain mostly N of the area. The front still remains in track to enter Wrn AR/McCurtain County OK and extreme NE TX around daybreak Wednesday, but given this slightly slower solution and the potential it could get hung up in the higher terrain, have raised min temps pretty significant for much of the region, with temps hard pressed to fall much below 70 degrees given the winds and increasing stratus development over all but the NW zones.
Therefore, less and less confidence of receiving an inch or more but still looks like the highest amounts will be across the far west (maybe around an inch when all is said and done). Heights begin rising towards the end of the work week as upper ridging shifts east.
This convection is also rooted near an eastward moving cold front. A secondary focus for convection will be prior to sunrise to the west of the Mississippi River with storms focusing along an approaching cold front. with model guidance indicating a slower passage of the approaching cold front.
1256 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 The advance of a strong cold front has brought showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Region for today. Late day cold frontal passage will end these threats and return cold and snow showers chances to the region. After the FROPA, upper troughing, cold advection, and limited lake and terrain enhancement should result in scattered snow showers through Thursday.
As the low continues eastward, boundary layer thermal profiles will continue to cool with sustained low-level cold advection. A period of strong mid/upper level QG forcing will overspread the region this morning, with precip becoming more widespread and transitioning to snow within the deformation zone of the departing low pressure system.
An approaching cold front and associated prefrontal trough will move across the terminals after 12Z Wednesday, resulting in a westerly then northwesterly wind shift with a few isolated SHRA possible along the prefrontal trough at Conroe and terminals south. Cannot rule out a TS or two at Galveston (and possibly Angleton) where forcing along the prefrontal trough and enough daytime destabilization may occur to aid in development, but confidence is too low to include in TAF. Cold front moving into the Panhandle and is forecast to move through SETX Wednesday morning and into the coastal areas in the early afternoon with a prefrontal trough a few hours earlier turning the winds to the sw/w. Deep dry air sweeps across in the wake of the front with heating in the afternoon bringing a respite from the high humidity of the last few days.
Then, a strong cold front will move through the area and bring colder temperatures to the area.
333 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 A few showers expected to develop through the morning ahead of a cold front. Scattered TSRA expected ahead of cold front during the afternoon and early evening hours. 35 Will issue Small Craft Advisory for most of the overnight hours tonight into Thursday for all coastal waters with the passage of the cold front.
An area of high pressure across FL. will pull away late Wed or early Thu as a cold front pushes into the the Gulf. High pressure settles in for end of the week. High pressure ridging across the state will provide light winds and enough moisture for late night fog. A front pushes through during Thu with some better odds of rainfall and some drier and cooler air in it/s wake.
Clouds moving out of the region as upper trough pushing through. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning.
323 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes today and lift across northern Maine Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build toward the area late in the weekend. Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes this Morning then move across Northern Maine this afternoon into this evening. Warmer air will be pushing northward across the State today as the low approaches so even though precipitation is expected to start as snow, a change to mixed precipitation and rain will occur later this morning. Precipitation is then expected to change back to mixed then snow late tonight as the low moves off to the north and colder air moves in behind the low.
336 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 It will be warm and windy ahead of a cold front today. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues are windy conditions ahead of a cold front this afternoon and possible severe thunderstorms tonight. VAD wind profile trends support the model guidance of a strong low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front. The high-resolution models have a timing of mainly 900 pm to 200 am. Leaned toward the higher temperature guidance ahead of the front today. Also followed the higher guidance tonight because of mixing associated with the front. Drying will occur behind the cold front Thursday.
All is quiet on the home front thus far as high pressure over North Florida continues to exert just enough influence to keep active wx north of the area. low pressure continues to lift into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front through southern Illinois.
310 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 Cold front currently approaching the Red River Valley of Northeast Texas near Durant Oklahoma continuing to move southeast. Could see increased convective coverage across the region during the morning ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows tonight to fall into the 40s across most locations with the interstate 30 corridor approaching freezing.
As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 20s across west central Kansas to around freezing across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to only reach into the low to mid 50s with upper 40s possible across portions of west central Kansas.
322 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 Thunderstorms have largely moved east of the forecast area early this morning, in advance of the cold front progressing southeastward through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
/issued 351 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Subtropical ridge continues to dominate South Florida weather today. At least minor change is in store during the short term period, as wind in advance of a cold front will gradually turn more southerly at lower velocity. Deeper moisture will return to the area late Thursday as a cold front approaches.
Latest data still suggests a few wind gusts may reach the 60-70 mph range late tonight into Wed morning over the higher mtns and the normal windy areas of the nrn foothills. Area of snow is moving se across the plains in association with main upper level trough which should exit area by 04z or so. Have adjusted forecast for earlier ending time with this fast moving trof. Behind the trof, stronger nw winds will also develop over the northeast portions of Colorado. Dry and slightly warmer conditions expected on the plains for Wednesday. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Wednesday night into Thursday as a ridge builds into the southwestern states.
Mainly snow continues across parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning associated with a fairly weak low pressure system over Iowa. High pressure will build into the rest of the forecast region pulling in colder but near-normal air for the rest of the work week.
309 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 An upper trough is centered over the Northern Plains and a cold front is moving southward across West Texas currently north of the CWA. The upper trough will become centered over the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Upper level analysis shows trough now over the northern high plains, with strong jet remaining from the Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest. Unsettled and cool weather will continue through the short term as trough crosses the area late today and tonight, with northwest flow aloft in place through the rest of the period. Snow showers are possible through this evening, mainly near and east of the frontal boundary, as trough crosses the region. Activity should taper off by late evening as trough exits. The trough will help to push the boundary north and eastward across western SD overnight. Low pressure will slide east along the boundary on Wednesday as the front lingers from southeast MT to eastern SD. Highs will be in the 30s and lower 40s, with some 20s across the higher Black Hills.
About 20 Degrees Cooler Today. A strong cold frontal boundary continues to slide east through our region this morning. Even further west temperatures were in the 40s as the cooler and drier air mass continues to settle into the region.
Meanwhile, a cold front is bearing down on us from the northwest and has a fairly continuous line of showers and storms working southeast towards the Ohio river valley. The models are in general agreement during the period, but the GFS and ECMWF begin to have some timing differences concerning a cold front at the end of the period. Initially, a broad upper trough will be over the eastern CONUS, with an impulse rotating through it. Moisture will be limited, and models indicate most precip being along and north of the low track.
Some residual within the lower levels of the atmosphere may lead to low cig dvlp across the WC and NW mtns. Areas of precipitation and wind will taper off tonight as an upper level trough exits east of New Mexico. In the wake of the weather system, cooler air will continue to funnel into central and eastern parts of the state on Wednesday, but temperatures across western areas will begin to rebound. The warming trend will reach the rest of central and northern New Mexico Thursday, then continue most places through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure aloft crosses the intermountain west. High temperatures should climb a few to around 15 degrees above normal this weekend, with the highest departures from normal on the eastern plains.
Cold front moving through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the early portion of the TAF period with thunderstorms occurring along and ahead of the boundary. /Issued 835 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ Have increased pops across far northeast Oklahoma and for later tonight as a cold front currently across southeast Oklahoma moves into the area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Otherwise, temps will range from the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. A deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West ejects eastward over the Great Plains tonight. As the aforementioned trough progresses into the eastern CONUS, an attendant cold front dives into the lower Mississippi River valley by the mid afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, a moist and unstable airmass will develop as Gulf air continues to pump into the central Gulf states.
1218 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 The advance of a strong cold front has brought showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Region for today. Late day cold frontal passage will end these threats and return cold and snow showers chances to the region. After the FROPA, upper troughing, cold advection, and limited lake and terrain enhancement should result in scattered snow showers through Thursday.
322 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 A cold front continues to make good southward progress and is still moving south at a bit faster clip than any of the short-term or high resolution models have. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler compared to yesterday with low 60s for the Rolling Plains and mid to upper 50s across the Caprock. Jordan One last shot of surface ridging will keep winds light and temperatures near average tomorrow.
Storms will start in northwest AR after midnight, then move southeast overnight as a cold front east to central and southeastern AR. The cold front will move out to the state by midday Wednesday. This was the first round, while the cold front and upper system will move through AR later after midnight. As mentioned, these storms will mainly be along a line ahead of the cold front, with strong damaging winds the main threat, while large hail and an isolated tornado a lower threat. Lows tonight will be mild over central and southern areas with the cold front, while over northern AR around normal values. The cold front in the plains will not move through the state until after midnight. Expect the thunderstorms and cold front to exit the eastern part of the state during Wednesday morning.
Isentropic lift developing ahead of an upper trough moving through the area this morning will result in light snowfall along and east of the James River Valley this morning.
1244 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues Wednesday will be breezy to possibly windy conditions ahead of a cold front, and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots. Leaned toward the higher temperature guidance ahead of the front Wednesday. The higher guidance may be better Wednesday night because of mixing associated with the front.
wind or hail most likely though 0-3km SRH and sfc to 2km sfc relative flow would promote some turning in the lowest layers.
Water vapor imagery shows a large trough moving east across the Rocky mountains, which has helped focus a plumb of Pacific moisture across the Southern and Central Plains within a southwest flow. will focus on the areas along and ahead of the cold front as it settles southeast late this afternoon and this evening. We expect storms to start bubbling up on the southern side of Kansas City and along a line northeast towards Macon between 5 and 7 PM this eveing, which is when we think the low level jet with ramp up; resulting in a window for severe storms this evening as a quick shot elevated instability advects north. Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures to prevail through the rest of the work week as a northwest flow persists aloft allowing cool air to ooze across the Plains.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the western half of the country with flow over Texas from the south-southwest. At the surface, a dryline and cold front were entering our northwestern area. The cold front will be about half way through our area at the start of this period and continue through today. Temperatures will be cooler today and even cooler Thursday.
Thursday some light rain or snow may develop due to a weak wave and warm front in westerly flow. The surface pressure gradient will tighten late tonight and Wednesday which will cause increasing SW-W winds across the Lower Columbia Basin, North Central OR, and Foothills of the Blues.
the surface cold front/wind shift is near Falls City with temperatures in the 60s there. The h5 longwave trough continues to deepen as it progresses across the Rockies and this broad lift combined with upper level jet support. however as high pressure settles in for Thursday night, they should become light and variable.
Low level jet over us will likely cause wind advisory criteria across the area today, especially in the higher terrain. With the low level jet blowing we will see quite a bit of shear over us. Overnight lows behind this system will be much colder with some places flirting with freezing temperatures tonight.
420 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Low pressure over will move northeast across the central Great Lakes early today dragging a cold front across the area. This will be followed by a reinforcing cold front tonight.
Meanwhile a mid level neutral tilt trof is expected to advect east across the forecast area overnight. Will start out Wednesday night with the main 500mb trough set up from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes, with northwesterly flow dominating the Northern and Central Plains States. This will continue through Thursday, until a high amplitude ridge builds and stretches from TX up through central Canada. Look for high pressure over south central Canada Thursday morning to quickly build in, with dry weather figured Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Thursday night could again bring some brief light snow to northeastern areas as the high exits and a broad trough settles overhead.
1138 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 An upper trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains tonight. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens eastern panhandle to the lower 20s southeast.
1109 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 /06Z TAFS/ A cold front will pass through KABI around 07Z and will pass thorugh KSJT around 12Z. /issued 512 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south through West Central Texas overnight with front arrival at KABI around 07Z, 12Z at KSJT, and 15Z at the southern terminals. /issued 345 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Latest satellite imagery shows an upper level broad trough over the western US moving east, with a shield of cirrus across much of central and east Texas ahead of the trough. cold front will move through late tonight through early Wednesday. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures, we are still expecting highs in the 60s for Wednesday with mostly clear skies.
A period of light rain and/or a mix is also possible this eve until cooler air works into the region in the wake of the cold front. Widespread cloud cover from tonight through much of Wednesday will yield limited temperature changes, with lows in the 20s overnight and highs in the low/mid 30s on Wednesday.
340 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 The cold front hat pushed through the area last night and brought severe weather has shifted well to the east this morning. The upper level trough associated with this system will move through the area today.
A cold front currently extends from northeast Illinois through northwest Arkansas and into central Texas. As the cold front moves east today thunderstorms will move through the forecast area. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high pressure moving into the central plains. Cooler and drier air will move into region with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper 30s.
As an upper level trough over the Plains approaches, the cold front will drop southeastward through our forecast area tonight. Colder temperatures can be expected tonight across northeast MO due to cold air advection behind the cold front, then colder conditions for the entire area on Wednesday with only a small diurnal rise in temperatures expected.
A secondary focus for convection will be prior to sunrise to the west of the Mississippi River with storms focusing along an approaching cold front. Dry and cooler air will spread through the Midsouth late Wednesday afternoon and evening, setting the stage for low afternoon daytime humidity levels late in the week.