Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
707 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Showers/storms stretched from southwest WI across central IA early this morning, firing from the interplay of a cold front at the sfc and low level moisture transport/jet. The front will continue its very slow progress east/southeast, not having a lot of motivation with upper level ridge just off to the southeast. Wind shear also remains displaced west into the cooler air.
1005 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Issued at 1005 AM Fri Jun 19 2020 A few bands of showers/thunder are starting to fire up in southward moving bands rotating around the upper Low located near Wheeling WV. Almost a persistence forecast for most of the next 24 hrs as the weakening upper low remains parked near Wheeling, WV. Heights will try to rise in our western CWA as upper ridging tries to build NE in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
638 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Today, an upper trough located across western WY, into Utah and Arizona early this morning will advance east into eastern WY and central CO by late afternoon. This will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day with cool highs from the upper 60 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast. This will limit moisture transport as the upper trough progresses through most of western NE. Saturday the upper trough will move through central and eastern NE during the morning. Going into the afternoon, cooler air aloft with h5 temperatures near -15C will combine with surface heating will bring steep lapse rates and MLCapes to 500 J/KG.
Expect rain chances to favor the higher terrain of the plateau and mountains overall, but continued northwest steering flow will direct storms into the valley at times. Upper low now over central Appalachians and Ohio is continuing to rotate moisture into the southern Appalachians with scattered showers moving across northeast Tennessee this morning. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 90 68 91 / 40 20 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 86 66 88 / 40 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 64 88 68 88 / 50 20 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 60 84 62 86 / 50 30 20 20 30.
Other than a few high clouds spilling through the ridge along the West Coast, skies are clear across interior NorCal early this morning. Highs will continue to inch up a few degrees across most of the region today as the upper ridge moves overhead. Little change is expected over the weekend as the ridge flattens and zonal flow develops to our north.
922 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Clear skies and radar imagery greet us this morning as the cutoff upper level low which has controlled our weather the past few days tracks more to the north. Lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable across the area. Despite some upper level ridging to building into the area ahead of it. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmer temperatures expected near and west of the I-65 corridor.
414 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Today, an upper trough located across western WY, into Utah and Arizona early this morning will advance east into eastern WY and central CO by late afternoon. This will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day with cool highs from the upper 60 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast. This will limit moisture transport as the upper trough progresses through most of western NE. Saturday the upper trough will move through central and eastern NE during the morning. Going into the afternoon, cooler air aloft with h5 temperatures near -15C will combine with surface heating will bring steep lapse rates and MLCapes to 500 J/KG.
340 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Upper trough axis extended from the Northern High Plains to the Southern Great Basin. An inverted low pressure trough extended from the Four Corners to Central WY, with a band of rain showers and embedded thunder across western and northern CO into southwest NE. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the departing upper trough. A low amplitude upper ridge to the west will replace the upper trough Saturday, ushering in warmer temperatures and a drier more stable air mass. A trough of low pressure along the Front Range and upper level low pressure system moving east through the Central Rockies and High Plains will produce wetting rainfall across much of the area today. Warmer, breezy and drier conditions will return this weekend.
With high pressure off the California coast. Have kept thunderstorm chances out of the forecast through the weekend due to the position of the high pressure ridge and associated stable conditions.
1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will continue to influence our weather through the period. Highs both days will reach the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. The surface pressure pattern will feature high pressure offshore but with a very weak gradient.
651 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The last of the elevated convection overnight will eventually either slide east southeast of the CWA of remain in the confines of the far southern reaches of the CWA for the most part as the 850-700 mb cold front continues to sag farther southeast. Sky cover and cooler airmass should keep highs in the 70s.
Almost a persistence forecast for most of the next 24 hrs as the weakening upper low remains parked near Wheeling, WV. Heights will try to rise in our western CWA as upper ridging tries to build NE in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
/Issued 342 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ With the upper-level closed low now weakened and lingering in the Mid-Atlantic, and a weak upper-level ridge drifting across the Gulf states, the forecast area looks to have adequate amount of mid-level moisture, but limited convective development due to upper-level subsidence creating long and very skinny CAPE profiles in forecast soundings. Instability is stronger today but CAPE remains minimal above the freezing level reducing the chances for widespread thunderstorms, though isolated storm development could be possible. Tomorrow, rain chances will be reduced with the upper-level ridge moving toward the forecast area as highs go from the mid-80s today into a more seasonal upper-80s tomorrow.
High pressure will shift into the region today into tomorrow.
/19/ Today and Tonight: The forecast area currently resides between troughing in the east, and ridging to the west. Over the next 24 hours, this trough will gradually slide east as ridging builds into the region.
The Big Country is where the highest storm chances will be, with chances decreasing to the south. As far as temperatures, we will have a thermal ridge of similar strength and similar dewpoints and winds to what we had yesterday, so expect similar highs to yesterday (in the low to mid 90s).
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends southward into New Mexico and the southern plains. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday but will still be hot with highs mostly in the upper 90s to triple digits. The upper trough will move over the central plains on Saturday with temperatures cooling slightly from today.
(This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front has become essentially indiscernible within a large area of convectively-cooler air.
Issued at 1005 AM Fri Jun 19 2020 A few bands of showers/thunder are starting to fire up in southward moving bands rotating around the upper Low located near Wheeling WV. Almost a persistence forecast for most of the next 24 hrs as the weakening upper low remains parked near Wheeling, WV. Heights will try to rise in our western CWA as upper ridging tries to build NE in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
This would be due to increased moisture in the low levels along with generally light winds and partly cloudy skies. Much like today, diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours as temperatures soar into the lower 90s and reach convective temperature.
As the upper low over eastern Ohio continues to move off to the northeast, upper ridging will slide over the Tennessee Valley and provide a lesser chance of pops during the day on Saturday.
1115 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Upper trough axis extended from the Northern High Plains to the Southern Great Basin. An inverted low pressure trough extended from the Four Corners to Central WY, with a band of rain showers and embedded thunder across western and northern CO into southwest NE. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the departing upper trough. A low amplitude upper ridge to the west will replace the upper trough Saturday, ushering in warmer temperatures and a drier more stable air mass. A trough of low pressure along the Front Range and upper level low pressure system moving east through the Central Rockies and High Plains will produce wetting rainfall across much of the area today. Warmer, breezy and drier conditions will return this weekend.
A mid level ridge axis will push into the region tonight ending the shower threat. The ridge axis will center itself over the area on Saturday, but should be sufficient heating again by the afternoon to provide for a few sporadic showers across the area.
Expect rain chances to favor the higher terrain of the plateau and mountains overall, but continued northwest steering flow will direct storms into the valley at times. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 90 68 91 70 / 20 10 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 86 66 88 68 / 20 20 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 88 68 88 68 / 20 20 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 84 62 86 64 / 20 30 20 30 20.
/issued 1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ Weak ridging is developing aloft as a low that has persisted over the eastern US lifts northeast. Subsidence and drier air associated with the ridge aloft will limit convection today, with no more than an isolated brief shower or storm possible. Temperatures as of 10 AM are already approaching the middle 80s, on track to reach the lower 90s later this aftn. A high pressure ridge aloft continues to extend from Texas into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Ridge will continue to limit any convection today, and have not included mention of rain chances area-wide. Saturday looks to be a day of transition with the ridge advancing east of the region but expecting an overall dry day once again.
This supports the forecast of much lesser precip chances through the evening for SE OK - western AR with focus then being on convection organizing later today across the High Plains and spreading eastward overnight.
128 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will continue to influence our weather through the period. Highs both days will reach the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. The surface pressure pattern will feature high pressure offshore but with a very weak gradient.
An upper ridge over the region today will maintain warm and dry conditions, though clouds will begin to increase by afternoon.
Fairly extensive cloud cover will continue to moderate temperatures, with near average lows in the mid 60s and slightly below average highs in the low 80s.
104 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Showers/storms stretched from southwest WI across central IA early this morning, firing from the interplay of a cold front at the sfc and low level moisture transport/jet. The front will continue its very slow progress east/southeast, not having a lot of motivation with upper level ridge just off to the southeast. Wind shear also remains displaced west into the cooler air.
High pressure that was over northwestern Wyoming yesterday has shifted into north central Nebraska this afternoon. Upper ridging will be the main weather controller over the CWA this period boding for warm and mainly dry conditions. Some isolated late day convection will be possible most days as weak impulses drop se over the region ahead of the upper ridge axis over the western CONUS. A bit more widespread convection is possible by Friday as the upper ridge axis moves by and an upper trough moves over the Pacific NW and the northern Rockys. Unsettled weather this afternoon as a low pressure system tracks across the area.
213 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 It appears the thick cloud deck of altostratus and cirrostratus, along with the drier air in the lower boundary layer was sufficient to suppress convection today over the Keys and coastal waters. Outside of a few showers and thunderstorms this morning in the Gulf waters well north of the lower Keys, the Key West radar has been mostly clear. Temperatures are a few degrees below normal today due to the cloud cover, with the high of only 85 so far at WFO Key West. Little change in the sensible weather is expected through this weekend, as the base of the mid and upper level trough over the east coast swings through the Florida peninsula eastward into the Atlantic.
Highs in the lower 90s were good, much of the area was already in the lower 80s.
1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Weak ridging is developing aloft as a low that has persisted over the eastern US lifts northeast. Subsidence and drier air associated with the ridge aloft will limit convection today, with no more than an isolated brief shower or storm possible. Temperatures as of 10 AM are already approaching the middle 80s, on track to reach the lower 90s later this aftn. A high pressure ridge aloft continues to extend from Texas into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Ridge will continue to limit any convection today, and have not included mention of rain chances area-wide. Saturday looks to be a day of transition with the ridge advancing east of the region but expecting an overall dry day once again.
Previous discussion: An upper low pattern looks to persist over the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Upper ridging will build into the western U. for the middle of the week and expanding its reach into NE Montana with warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions returning.
These are in response to previous convection outflow interaction with ascent and lapse rate support via upper low pressure directly over the region. Another round of primarily afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday as the upper low slowly weakens and shifts to the east.
/Tonight through Friday/ An active stretch of weather is expected through the next 72 hours as a deep trough sends multiple waves through the region.
General subsidence underneath the ridge on Saturday should suppress most towering cumulus clouds that develop, but a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
None of this activity will be too strong, but small hail is a possibility w/ freezing levels on the low side. Look for highs in the low- mid 70s most places. JKL The upper low over Manitoba is progged to swing to the northeast throughout today, albeit slowly.
A closed upper low will continue to meander around over the mid-Atlantic region through tonight, then begin to shift east Saturday. An upper ridge shifts east over the Mississippi River to over the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast. Even with the upper ridge shifting east of the Mississippi River bringing increased upper subsidence, the CAMs are advertising enough moisture to trigger afternoon convection as a seabreeze moves inland from the coast. Subsidence from the approaching upper ridge will bring above seasonal temperatures to the forecast area.
In what looks to be the first of three potential rounds of convection today, CAMs and short range models indicate thunderstorm chances picking up across the area toward daybreak as a series of H5 vort maxima lift northeast out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of western Kansas. Lastly, steepening low/mid level lapse rates within an easterly upslope flow will set the stage for thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado later this afternoon as a series of H5 vort maxima exit the Colorado Rockies into the high plains. Well below normal temperatures are likely today as increased cloud cover combines with cooler air filtering southward into western Kansas. Expect highs only up into the 70s(F) in west central and central Kansas to possibly the lower 80s(F) further south near the Oklahoma border.
Flat ridging takes hold at 250mb, with the current mid-level weakness replaced with more robust ridging.
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Today, an upper trough located across western WY, into Utah and Arizona early this morning will advance east into eastern WY and central CO by late afternoon. This will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day with cool highs from the upper 60 to the low 70s northwest and mid 70s southeast. This will limit moisture transport as the upper trough progresses through most of western NE. Saturday the upper trough will move through central and eastern NE during the morning. Going into the afternoon, cooler air aloft with h5 temperatures near -15C will combine with surface heating will bring steep lapse rates and MLCapes to 500 J/KG.
Clear skies and radar imagery greet us this morning as the cutoff upper level low which has controlled our weather the past few days tracks more to the north. Lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable across the area. Despite some upper level ridging to building into the area ahead of it. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmer temperatures expected near and west of the I-65 corridor.
Sunny and warmer today with upper ridge moving in over the Great Basin and Idaho.
322 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Mid/upper trough will persist across the eastern United States through Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be slightly warmer than today, but still a notch below normal. Mid-level trough exits east early Sun with weak post trough subsidence setting up. Broad mid- level trough moves in for the middle of the week, associated with cutoff low over the Great Lakes. - Highs in the low to mid 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 A weak upper level low over eastern Ohio and West Virginia is bringing scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The low will move east tonight, allowing weak high pressure to build into the area for Saturday. Still, a few showers and thunderstorms have developed on the western periphery of the upper level low near the OH/PA border. Low temperatures tonight are near normal, in the low to mid 60s. Tough to find a place to highlight precipitation potential for Saturday as a 500 mb ridge axis moves in from the west.
A short wave trough in Wyoming will make its way east through the night across northern Nebraska and South Dakota. Already seeing the affects of the lift from this trough with scattered showers/storms in western sd late this afternoon. Otherwise, a more important short wave trough from the northwest with good cooling aloft along with a surface cold front will be affecting our cwa Saturday and Saturday night. The surface dewpoints will be modest in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s on Saturday. The period starts out with mid-level low pressure over south central Canada.
A few non-severe thunderstorms Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Larger scale ridging remains intact across the northern lakes region into Ontario overtop a slow moving cutoff feature over the Ohio/Pennsylvania border and downstream from larger scale troughing in the northern Plains. Low pressure is across Ontario with a boundary that extends down through western Upper Michigan into Wisconsin/Iowa and into the central Plains.
Mid to upper level ridging will move over Colorado on Saturday.
217 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Nearly stationary upper low continues to rotate over Manitoba/ Saskatchewan.
The overall ridge axis position is sliding farther west due to a trough passage to the north, which isn't as favorable for thunderstorm development. Ensembles and operational guidance are trending toward another trough dipping into the northwest around the end of June.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region today but will see some increasing high clouds due to an approaching weather system. This system will begin to flatten the ridge late tonight and Saturday bringing a low chance of precipitation to northern Oregon and eastern Washington as it passes. Temperatures will be a little warmer today and winds will be light.
Saturday morning a ridge will attempt to build over the Northern Rockies making for a sunny, dry, and warm start to the day.
An upper level low pressure system which has been the dominant influence on our weather for many days was centered near the OH/WV border early this morning.
227 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Passing trough is moving across SE WY currently, and got close enough to spark a few elevated showers off the southern end of the Wind River Range. This trough is quickly moving to the northeast, taking the bulk of midlevel support away from the higher elevations, so shower activity has been decreasing already this afternoon. Northwest flow behind this trough will set up a calmer day for most of the area Saturday, with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and 80s. Increased cloud cover in those locations will hold highs back in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Weak upper ridging builds in as the persistent upper low finally loses its grip on the region.
Parts of northwest Wisconsin are still dealing with overcast and some scattered showers/drizzle as a very slow moving cold front drifts east. Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight with high pressure in place, though there will remain a slight chance for light showers over Price County. Winds will gradually become northeasterly late tonight into Saturday near Lake Superior as high pressure moves in with southeasterly winds inland. A secondary upper trough crossing the Canadian border will introduce better chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across northern Minnesota going into Saturday night.
Modest subsidence on the backside of a departing upper level short wave trough may delay the onset by an hour or two, but still expect the models to be correct with their development of thunderstorms across the western South Plains that eventually congeal into an MCS near the I-27 corridor. As the upper level trough flattens and shifts east we'll dry out and heat up.
While morning showers have been moving fairly quickly with the low-level level flow, steering flow from H7-H5 is rather light, so a little concerned that storm motions will slow as they obtain more vertical development. Also a modest Pacific jet punching in with a relative weakness in the mid-level ridge nearby, so will have to watch out for at least nuisance flooding in spots. includes mid-level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region, as well as another trough over the Northern Rockies. , mean ridging of high pressure continues today. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward this weekend as the trough out west nudges into the Plains. Saturday, the ridge axis move into the Southeast U. Temperatures on Saturday may be a degree or two warmer, but will still be near normal.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to pop through the afternoon with an upper low overhead. Ridges will have the most complete coverage with more scattered coverage elsewhere.
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Closed upper low in southern Manitoba has a stationary front extending from Lake Superior to between Waterloo and Independence and then to the TX Panhandle. Cooler and much drier air west of the front with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s and temps in the comfortable 70s.
The trough axis influencing the region today will shift northeast overnight as weak upper level ridging moves into the region.
The region remains under the influence of an upper level ridge. The ridge will remain in place tonight and Saturday giving us one more dry day across the entire Mid-South. By Saturday night, a cold front will be moving across Missouri.