Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest water vapor animation shows a big trough and upper low over the western CONUS/eastern Pacific. Thermal profiles and the SREF guidance point to a good chance of freezing rain over parts of southwestern and south-central SD, although a mix also is possible over other parts of the CWA as well. In addition, have added Tripp County to the watch where substantial freezing rain is possible.
Given the expected low RH, breezy conditions, and location of the low level thermal trough, will go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for much of the area.
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure.
721 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front crosses today. High pressure Friday.
825 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure settling over the area will allow for clear skies and light winds.
1051 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Update A cold front will slip south of the region early this morning. An area of high pressure tracks eastward through Lower Michigan on Friday. This fair weather system will provide the area with dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
745 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. Light snow associated falling out of a mid-level cloud deck associated with a trough is pushing east into the higher elevations. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure.
/issued 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/ High pressure will continue to shift to the southeast today. Current temperatures are likely at the lowest point of the night as warm air advection should allow temperatures to hold steady or slowly rise through sunrise. Showers ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains will spread into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel after midnight. The showers will be ahead of a secondary warm front that will be more of a moisture boundary separating the higher dewpoints. The atmosphere behind the secondary warm front will be unstable thanks to higher dewpoints moving into the area.
12z MFL sounding shows light winds at the lower levels and a very dry atmospheric column.
1226 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A trough will cross the region later this afternoon and tonight, producing scattered to numerous snow showers across the area with spotty minor accumulations. The snow will finally come to an end from west to east on Friday as high pressure and drier air build into the region. Mainly tranquil and cool weather expected for the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds across the region. This will keep night time lows in the teens over the higher terrain, and around the 20 degree mark in the lake plains.
An area of low pressure will strengthen this afternoon over eastern Colorado. With freezing rain prior to the heavy wet snow, travel conditions in central SD will be difficult Friday morning. The system will depart the region Friday evening, leaving behind low clouds and the potential for freezing drizzle.
Updated aviation and fire weather discussions A cold front sweeping through Arizona early today will lead to a much cooler day today while bringing mainly isolated light showers to the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix.
725 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Areas of light snow will wane in coverage today and become confined mainly the higher elevations by tonight into Friday.
Light freezing rain or sleet are possible at times during the transition to snow.
1204 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Nearly cloudless skies are present across island chain as broad high pressure is anchored along the north-central gulf coast. An area of high pressure will move eastward along the northern Gulf Coast today. This area of high pressure will be centered over North Florida tonight and Friday before progressing eastward into the Atlantic Friday night.
500 mb chart from last evening showed a ridge extending from Saskatchewan down into western NE then into NM. To the west, a trough was moving through the Rockies with 12 hour height falls of up to about 100 meters. At the surface, a weak cold front was pushing south through the local area. Lift will be strengthening tonight with increasing moisture in diffluent flow aloft ahead of negatively tilted trough/closed low. Models are in fairly good agreement that a closed low at 500 mb will move into northwest KS by 12z Friday. Surface temperatures in the northern parts of northeast NE look cold enough for mixed precipitation, mainly freezing rain and sleet.
1103 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front crosses today. High pressure Friday.
These SRLY winds will allow for warmer temps and increasing moisture levels. While the wild fire threat will remain elevated today due to the higher winds.
1032 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Hydro A cold front will slip south of the region early this morning. An area of high pressure tracks eastward through Lower Michigan on Friday. This fair weather system will provide the area with dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
The strong upper level low pressure center will become vertically stacked over top of the deep surface cyclone in central Kansas on Friday.
728 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Aviation A cold front will slip south of the region early this morning. An area of high pressure tracks eastward through Lower Michigan on Friday. This fair weather system will provide the area with dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
Winds will increase across the area especially this afternoon as the low deepens. The low level thermal ridge will reside across central KS where mixing will be greatest and hence highs should be the warmest today where highs may approach 80 in spots. The low level moisture is lagging again and so we will see another day of very high to extreme fire weather conditions across the area. The low level moisture will finally arrive in the form of modest dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 overnight. Lows Friday night will fall into the 30s with most areas remaining above freezing.
Overpeck High pressure has pushed off to the east allowing onshore flow to return to the area. Today will be a transition day between the cooler, dry conditions we've had to a more cloudy, humid, and wet pattern this weekend. Ridging aloft will begin to break down and shift eastward today, causing the 500mb pattern to become more southwesterly with a series of disturbances rotating across Friday through the weekend.
The latest ir satl was showing mid and high level clouds over the area in response to an approaching low pressure system over the epac.
956 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
Elsewhere, isolated showers are drifting west- southwest through the coastal waters adjacent to the Lower Keys. The low level ridge is fractured into two portions.
As surface cyclone intensifies and cold front surges over terminals late tonight, strong and gusty north winds will take over after 12Z and continue through the day tomorrow. Ahead of the trough, modest moisture return has occurred across much of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Most model sounding suggest that a capping inversion will prevent thunderstorm development through the daylight hours, however, a storm or two may develop, especially where near surface moisture can pool near a warm front. Perhaps better coverage will be in southern Kansas along and near a 7h trough axis. As the trough continues south and east, better chances for scattered to widespread showers and storms will be across south central and southeastern Oklahoma, where moisture return will continue to increase.
815 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A strong low pressure system will push east of Lake Huron this afternoon allowing gusty winds to slowly relax. Cooler and drier conditions will be observed tonight into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area.
1017 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Low pressure over Quebec will lift out tonight. High pressure from the plains states will briefly build over the region Wednesday.
/issued 1007 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Warm and moist air continues to make its way into the region ahead of the developing upper trof that will move into the srn plains/lwr MS valley Wednesday. Clouds continue increasing ahead of this storm system, and a much warmer night is expected across the region. /issued 248 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Mostly sunny skies and lgt winds today will be quickly interrupted by early Wednesday as a stg upper trough will dig sewd into the area. Stg instability and near saturated airmass within this warm sector to interact with increased low lvl dynamical signatures, resulting in enhanced risk of svr storms, especially south of I-20, as helicity values may exceed 400 m/s2 as the warm front becomes displaced further to the north.
835 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Dry weather continued across the greater Tennessee Valley this evening, thanks to an area of high pressure situated across the NE Gulf of Mexico. A loss of daytime heating and a forming evening inversion (warmer temperatures aloft) has decoupled winds (now light from the south) from an earlier 5-15 mph range. Expect lows mostly in the low/mid 50s - with cooler values in our northern and eastern areas. The atmosphere will also begin to moisten rather quickly, especially during the afternoon as the warm frontal boundary situated across southern Louisiana lifts our way.
925 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A weak cold front, with mainly clouds, will move across tonight. High pressure for Wednesday. An upper low brings unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. Latest satellite imagery shows an upper level low is centered over Lake Superior. As a result, clouds associated with the upper low cover much of the region to our north. Tweaked the lows for tonight and highs on Wednesday to reflect the latest blend of MET/MAV numbers.
The low level jet veers out quickly which will keep the activity moving eastward with rain tapering off from west to east just before daybreak across central/south central Kansas. The highest pops will be weighted mainly along and south of highway 50 as recent trends would support a subtle shift north with the qpf axis. The higher probabilities for thunderstorms should remain across Southern KS after 03-05Z where MUCAPES of 400-500 J/KG are progged. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across the Central Great Basin area and into the Rockies bringing tranquil but breezy conditions to the Central Plains states through the period.
That being said, and assuming it can be overcome with forcing as almost all guidance suggests, other parameters still look pretty good for a line of storms to develop along a cold front moving into the region during the aftn and evng hours. /ISSUED 655 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Complicated aviation forecast for tonight through tomorrow morn- ing as we await the warm front from Gulf and then the next cold front toward the end of this TAF package. A brief break from all this active weather is expected late tomorrow morning/ early afternoon but will be looking for things to start ramping back up by late afternoon (from the north) as the cold front be- gins to move into the area.
Surface map this evening shows a ridge of high pressure nearly atop Middle Tennessee, with winds finally dropping off tonight after a lengthy period of strong sustained winds. Ridge won't move to our east until tomorrow, so we won't start to see any return flow until later tomorrow. Skies are mostly clear at the moment across the mid state, but additional cloudiness associated with a warm front to our west will begin to infiltrate overnight.
Will add in a mix of precip tomorrow morning over the southern suburbs, as well as over the Palmer and Cheyenne ridges. The mid level trough axis will pass across the cwa through this evening with weak ascent associated with it. The mdls indicate a weak cold front will push south into Denver Wednesday morning, 12-15z. Some lgt showers will continue through the mid morning hours, then increasing subsidence will develop behind the exiting trough by the aftn.
At the surface, a cold front remains across the southern part of the Florida peninsula, with high pressure building in over the southeast behind it. Lows for tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than this morning. A cold front over the southern part of the Florida peninsula will continue to weaken through tonight.
925 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Isolated showers are possible tonight with a crossing trough. Dry weather under high pressure is expected Wednesday before low pressure returns periodic rain chances Wednesday night thorough the weekend. Broad troughing should maintain clouds and mainly isolated showers tonight from near PIT north. Building high pressure should result in dry and clearing weather Wednesday, though a late day increase in clouds is expected again across OH in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Energy digging into the central Plains on Wednesday will develop into a closed low pressure center by Wednesday night.
726 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A weak cold front, with mainly clouds, will move across tonight. High pressure for Wednesday. An upper low brings unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. Latest satellite imagery shows an upper level low is centered over Lake Superior. As a result, clouds associated with the upper low cover much of the region to our north. Tweaked the lows for tonight and highs on Wednesday to reflect the latest blend of MET/MAV numbers.
The timing of the clearing out of the cloud deck has been updated with latest model guidance as the ridge begins to move into the region tomorrow. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a broad weak trough in northwest flow from Nebraska through northeast Montana and into central Alberta. Farther west, a ridge is building into the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon through tonight: Showers and thunderstorms across the area are being supported by a combination lift aloft from the exiting trough and at the surface by some daytime heating for thunder. Wednesday: Ridge should begin moving in. Strong ridge of high pressure and warmer than average temperatures will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure from the west.
836 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A cold front moving into the area, has brought showers and thunderstorms to South Florida this evening. /issued 346 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017/ Rest of Today and Tonight: A cold front is slowly making its way down the Florida peninsula.
836 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Surface map this evening shows a ridge of high pressure nearly atop Middle Tennessee, with winds finally dropping off tonight after a lengthy period of strong sustained winds. Ridge won't move to our east until tomorrow, so we won't start to see any return flow until later tomorrow. Skies are mostly clear at the moment across the mid state, but additional cloudiness associated with a warm front to our west will begin to infiltrate overnight.
MVFR ceilings will be common Wednesday, with winds shifting to the north and becoming gusty as a cold front sweeps across the area. This will push the upper level trof axis and an associated cold front into Eastern Oklahoma Wednesday morning and into Northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expected ongoing showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning should continue to move eastward across the CWA with additional development along and near the cold front as it moves through the region. Behind the eastward moving cold front. gusty northwesterly winds in the 20 to 35+mph range and cooler conditions are forecast. behind the cold front. rain chances will remain possible mainly over far Eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas as the wave wraps up and becomes a closed low over the region.
Will be in a quiet weather pattern for the next 24 hours as high pressure continues to build into the region.
A strong ridge is developing across the Western United States in response to an impressive 968mb low in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will continue to build overnight, with clearing skies.
642 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 There is a closed low over Great Lakes with a deep trough into the southeast CONUS and a cold frontal boundary along the Atlantic Seaboard this morning. There is a ridge into western Canada with a disturbance moving southeast into the northern plains in fast northwest flow. There is a trough over the desert southwest into Baja. Wednesday increased forcing over the forecast area as inverted trough moves across eastern Nebraska. Increased instability Wednesday afternoon with forcing along the trough and 120+ upper jet nosing into western Nebraska will continue thunderstorms over north central.
/issued 248 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Mostly sunny skies and lgt winds today will be quickly interrupted by early Wednesday as a stg upper trough will dig sewd into the area. Stg instability and near saturated airmass within this warm sector to interact with increased low lvl dynamical signatures, resulting in enhanced risk of svr storms, especially south of I-20, as helicity values may exceed 400 m/s2 as the warm front becomes displaced further to the north.
927 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A quiet night across the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians with high pressure in place across the region. Plateau, with lows in the low to mid 40s. The rest of the Valley should be a little warmer, generally in the lower 50s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 82 60 69 / 0 10 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 78 59 72 / 0 0 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 50 78 59 71 / 0 0 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 73 54 69 / 0 0 10 60 TN.
A cold front will push south through all area terminals between 03/09Z and 03/15Z on gusty north winds. /issued 122 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ A mainly dry northern stream cold front is poised to move through the forecast area late tonight and Wednesday morning knocking temperatures back to below normal values Wednesday afternoon.
1007 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Warm and moist air continues to make its way into the region ahead of the developing upper trof that will move into the srn plains/lwr MS valley Wednesday. Clouds continue increasing ahead of this storm system, and a much warmer night is expected across the region. /issued 248 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Mostly sunny skies and lgt winds today will be quickly interrupted by early Wednesday as a stg upper trough will dig sewd into the area. Stg instability and near saturated airmass within this warm sector to interact with increased low lvl dynamical signatures, resulting in enhanced risk of svr storms, especially south of I-20, as helicity values may exceed 400 m/s2 as the warm front becomes displaced further to the north.
634 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 00Z TAFS A few more hours of clear skies before clouds begin to develop after midnight in response to an approaching upper low and frontal system. A warm front will lift north out of the gulf during the morning hours inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms at BPT, LCH, LFT and ARA. During the evening a squall line associated with the passing cold front will push through the area from west to east. /issued 330 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS while low pressure is noted over sern NM/far wrn TX.
709 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will be moving across the area tonight and Wednesday. Expect clouds and plenty of showers tonight before the showers become more confined to the higher terrain on Wednesday.
939 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Low pressure over Quebec will lift out tonight. High pressure from the plains states will briefly build over the region Wednesday.
804 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will be moving across the area tonight and Wednesday. Expect clouds and plenty of showers tonight before the showers become more confined to the higher terrain on Wednesday.
732 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Aviation Lingering light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off late this afternoon and early evening as the upper level low pressure system moves further away from our region. High pressure will build in overnight and it will be cool with low temperatures in the middle 30s with some patchy frost. Fair and seasonably cool weather will then continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
A cold front will drive through the region overnight with increasing risk of MVFR stratus at KCDS toward daybreak. All the short term models keep things dry through this evening with some differences as a strong cold front pushes across the area. Highs tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today as strong north wind keeps cold air advection in place through the day.
846 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Update Lingering light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off late this afternoon and early evening as the upper level low pressure system moves further away from our region. High pressure will build in overnight and it will be cool with low temperatures in the middle 30s with some patchy frost. Fair and seasonably cool weather will then continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday, with gusty north winds and MVFR ceilings following in its wake.
722 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over ern Ontario which moves to western Quebec by this evening. Overall, the forecast is pretty quiet as the closed low continues to move away and allow drier air into the area which will decrease the cloud cover.
1242 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night thorough the weekend. Building high pressure should result in dry conditions, though a late day increase in clouds is expected again across OH in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Energy digging into the central Plains on Wednesday will develop into a closed low pressure center by Wednesday night.
Will continue to keep lows in the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow's highs should be a few degrees cooler than today. The period begins with the upper level ridge over the High Plains and shifting east over the Dakotas.
Strong cold front will race across S TX and accelerate after sunset.
736 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Dry high pressure will build across the area tonight through Wednesday. A warm front will develop in the region Wednesday night ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front.
High pressure is slowly moving over the region and will bring a significant warming trend to the area over the next few days. Over the weekend the next storm will usher in cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and increasing chances for precipitation. No changes to the forecast are expected this evening with relatively benign weather tonight into tomorrow as high pressure builds over the area from the southwest.
1224 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
1140 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 There is a closed low over Great Lakes with a deep trough into the southeast CONUS and a cold frontal boundary along the Atlantic Seaboard this morning. There is a ridge into western Canada with a disturbance moving southeast into the northern plains in fast northwest flow. There is a trough over the desert southwest into Baja. Wednesday increased forcing over the forecast area as inverted trough moves across eastern Nebraska. Increased instability Wednesday afternoon with forcing along the trough and 120+ upper jet nosing into western Nebraska will continue thunderstorms over north central.
VFR conditions to hold until about 16Z at all terminals but then come under convective impacts from thunderstorms advancing northward with a warm front.