Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 A vigorous upper level low pressure system crossing the northern Rockies into the high plains later today will promote dry and breezy northwest winds much of the area - though wind speeds have trended noticeably softer compared to the past several days. Strongest winds - perhaps into the low-end windy category at times should favor the southwestern part of the South Plains and might tend to spread out a bit east into the central South Plains. By late afternoon and especially into the early evening, we expect a cold front to become more pronounced with delivery from the upper low moving out of the Dakota's into Nebraska overnight. Biggest change in the Sunday time frame involved re-introduction of light showers as an upper impulse skirting the southern Rockies edges towards the high plains.
212 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 A warm front is progged to mix slowly north across northern Oklahoma today but remaining south of the Kansas state line where better instability will remain. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive on Sunday with northerly flow resulting in below normal temperatures across the region.
154 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lake effect snow showers will taper off Saturday afternoon, as weak high pressure pushes into the region. Second, high pressure nosing down from the Great Lakes will bring dry air and downward motion into NY/PA. Dry weather Sunday and Sunday night with weak high pressure. The highs are below normal by 5 to 10 degrees and the lows are close to normal.
High pressure aloft will keep dry and quiet conditions over the forecast area for tonight. A weak wave in the flow will ride up over the ridge Saturday night flattening out the ridge. Precipitation amounts will be very light and snow levels will continue to rise and keep snow only on the higher peaks. A high amplitude ridge will return to the region by mid day Sunday with dry and mild conditions.
Weak upper troughiness along the east coast. GFS and NAM models have some differences with the evolution of the system, with questions regrading the track of the low or possibility of the low occluding and secondary low developing near the coast.
A developing low pressure system over the Southeast U.
Given less cloud cover tonight, a still relatively new snowpack, and light winds with high pressure overhead will take temperatures down a few more degrees with lows ranging from below zero across the far north, around zero a bit farther south across the rest of north- central Wisconsin, with lows in the single digits above zero across central and around 10 across east-central Wisconsin away from the lakeshore. By Saturday the high slides east allowing mid and high clouds from a low out to the west to infiltrate the region. A bit warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday as the region gets on the backside of the high with afternoon temperatures in the 30s.
911 PM PST Fri Mar 9 2018 A weak low pressure system moving into California will tap this subtropical moisture to bring periods of rain this weekend to portions of central and southern California with chances and amounts expected to decrease substantially from north to south.
402 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lake effect snow showers will taper off Saturday afternoon, as weak high pressure pushes into the region. Second, high pressure nosing down from the Great Lakes will bring dry air and downward motion into NY/PA. Dry weather Sunday and Sunday night with weak high pressure. The highs are below normal by 5 to 10 degrees and the lows are close to normal.
1021 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary/warm front from southeast MT to western SD to central NE. Low pressure is in place along the front across southwest SK, with cold front trailing back across western MT. The shorter range models have come into better agreement on the track of the low and upper level wave, but still some differences, with the GFS the furthest north and east. Forecast soundings suggest potential for some light freezing rain/sleet to the north and east of the Black Hills late tonight into Saturday morning if any pcpn develops. The trough will move quickly southeast of the area later Saturday into Saturday evening, with snow and wind tapering off. Cooler air will be in place for the weekend, with highs in the 30s and lower 40s each day.
Dryline lingers along the I-35 corridor tonight, then a cold front plunges across our area on Sunday. Cold advection and the clouds should keep highs on Sunday 15 to 25 degrees cooler than today's.
431 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday as a developing low pressure system begins to lift out of the southeast.
A strong cold front will follow late Saturday evening with gusty northeasterly winds and perhaps even a brief window for sub-VFR ceilings. These easterly winds will veer NW by late Saturday morning ahead of an upper trough grazing the TX Panhandle by later in the day. This wave will deliver a respectable cold front by Saturday afternoon across our NE zones, followed by a reinforcement of cooler air and gusty NE winds overnight. Ahead of this front, the low level thermal ridge should become quite pronounced by midday as very dry downslope winds boost compressional warming.
Sunday will be much cooler than this afternoon, as highs drop back into the 50s thanks to another reinforcing cold front.
Cloud cover has now overspread much of the region ahead of approaching low pressure system. Based on model forecast system movement, layer moisture and UVM progs, it appears the southwest part of the forecast area will see the highest amounts, perhaps 1 to 2 inches of sleet/snow. Soundings are all below freezing aloft across the CWA, so removed the mention of freezing rain.
409 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Low pressure tracking through the Tennessee Valley will bring some snow to areas south of the Ohio River early this morning.
Light easterly gradient Saturday should allow for a lake breeze to develop and will keep temps cooler along the lake. The original deep trough and closed mid-upper level low and associated cold pool have and will continue to shift gradually east, allowing for a lessening of the cold air over the area.
931 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Afternoon upper level Water vapor Imagery showed a textbook upper level low over northwestern Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. This upper low was translating southeast towards the Dakotas and the Northern Plains. This cloud cover will limit the already warm diurnal temperatures to the lower 60s across the area this evening. A high pressure ridge will amplify to the west of the area through the weekend. This trough is rather disorganized but has fairly high moisture content associated with a weak atmospheric river. The high moisture content of this system has some potential to produce light snow over the San Juans, but overall amounts are expected to be limited.
It's considerably warmer tonight than the past couple of nights and current temps are in the mid/upper 60's. A weak area of low pressure over west central Texas will remain nearly stationary or drift slowly southeast today and surface winds will veer a bit to the southwest on the east side of this feature. The warm start to the day coupled with a southwest sfc flow will allow temperatures to warm into the lower and middle 80's today. Skies will become cloudy tonight and another warm night is expected as the low level flow remains onshore, winds don't fully decouple and clouds help insulate. A cold front will cross the area between 12-18z. Sunday will be cloudy and trend cooler but colder air lags several hours behind the surface front. Skies will clear Sunday night as high pressure builds into the central plains.
Have therefore lowered the low temperatures in Glacier, Toole, and Pondera Counties about 5 degrees, putting lows there in the single digits above zero. Coulston Expect sunny skies to develop over much of the region today, as an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region.
Strong high pressure aloft will develop across the interior west early in the upcoming week.
Ahead of this feature, a warm front currently positioned across eastern Kansas and western Missouri will lift north slightly before stalling across central Missouri Saturday afternoon. The upper low will then push overhead the area Saturday night through Sunday morning. A surface cold front will also cross through northwest Missouri late Saturday night. Given that the upper low will be displaced behind the frontal boundary, in addition to a rapidly cooling thermal profile, there remains a reasonable setup for a post-frontal wintry mix and then snow across northern Missouri Saturday night. Cooler than normal temps are expected behind the frontal boundary Sunday afternoon.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 30s and higher were across the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. medium confidence The large scale picture has high pressure over the Great Lakes providing dry easterly flow across the area. All models are indicating an inverted trof associated with this system. Conceptually, the more significant precipitation is close to the inverted trof and not the upper level ridge as the GFS/WRF currently suggest. The developing system in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys should intercept moisture resulting in less precipitation across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
With upper troughing anchored over the northeast CONUS, chilly weather will persist through the weekend. This high pressure will hold sway over the area through the weekend, so while some scattered diurnal strato-cu/cumulus (and perhaps a few flurries) will be possible, generally expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be quite cold given the generally clear and calm conditions that will be associated with the high pressure system. In fact, the rather fresh snowpack in place may very well lead to even cooler temperatures in some locations. An upper level low will be in the process of diving down across the Great Lakes region for the start of the week. This low will will pivot across the region through the middle of the week as a few waves also move along the flow.
Meanwhile a low pressure system has developed in the lee of the Rockies and moved east into the central and southern Plains states. As this occurred, a warm front has been steadily developing over eastern KS into southern MO and west KY today. This warm front will continue to strengthen and extend further eastward into our area with time. Models are still not in great agreement when it comes to location of this developing activity but anywhere in the vicinity of the warm front will have a chance. The next system to watch will be an upper level low that will be moving across Nebraska by 00Z Sunday. Otherwise, rain chances associated with the approaching upper level low will arrive late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday.
1144 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the midwest will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
Lingering cloud cover will counter warming but still feel that many will reach the lower to possible middle 80s by the COB tomorrow. A relatively dry cold frontal passage on Sunday.
1206 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east over Nova Scotia Saturday. An area of high pressure will build over the area this weekend. A trough axis moving into northwestern Ohio at this time is helping to support stratocu/shower activity. The lake induced instability is marginal, but when combined with the jet energy, trough axis, and lingering moisture under nw flow it isn't surprising to see an expansion of snow showers. The longer fetch over the snowbelt will support some additional accumulations of an few inches before the best energy wanes tonight behind the trough. High pressure will build in from the upper midwest Saturday providing subsidence and sunny conditions. Low pressure will track eastward across the Tennessee River Valley on SUnday with an upper level trough moving overhead.
148 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 08z surface analysis had had low over eastern ND and southwest SD with a cold front into northwest WY. Today, upper low spins southeast across northwest SD this morning and then north central NE by this evening.
Challenge for the short term will be light snow chances as WAA in the low and mid levels works into the Devils Lake basin and eventually into the RRV through the overnight. The chance for some snow could continue into early Sunday morning as the trough moves southeast with the low. Sunday high pressure builds into the Northern Plains and keeps the forecast dry until the end of the week.
1251 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. The primary potential weather maker in the short term will be low pressure developing across the southeastern United States and moving northeast.
1050 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Weak ridging will bring quiet weather to the area through much of the night, but an approaching piece of energy will not allow that quiet to last very long. Soundings in this layer are pretty dry so will keep the chances on the lower side. So for now, not looking like any headlines will be needed as a combination of warmer initial temperatures and marginal amounts of QPF should keep any snowfall amounts to less than 2 inches.
Clouds, however, will be increasing again later tonight into Saturday morning as an upper level trough moves out of the northern Rockies into the western high plains. A surface cold front will precede the upper system and is expected to reach eastern Nebraska by late Saturday morning and southwest Iowa by mid to late afternoon. A secondary trough is indicated to drop across the area during the day Sunday which will continue the chance of additional light snow or drizzle depending on temperatures. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to climb above freezing on Sunday.
This disturbance will approach and pass over the area during the day Saturday, with the cold front moving through during the early part of the day. Additionally there is a chance for snow across northern and eastern Nebraska as the upper low and cooler air move overhead. Sunday will be cooler yet with a secondary disturbance and reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in to the region. The high will eventually slide off to the east as lee troughing develops in eastern Colorado as an upper ridge approaches the area.
1237 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the midwest will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
For now, thinking accumulations of up to an inch and a half at the most and generally for the higher elevations. Temperatures will warm for all areas to above freezing by 9 am with any lingering snow transitioning to all rain. The low levels are rather dry across the forecast area from the model soundings. The low levels will begin to saturate later this morning with low level convergence along the boundary.
Winds will relax by sunset, but the cloud cover and an H85 thermal ridge will keep temps fairly mild tonight. Despite lift and forcing, some dry air remains in the low and mid levels to limit precip potential. Late afternoon/early evening, the upper low moves into the Siouxland, placing western Nebraska in a region of CAA. The northern stream trough and closed low will track through the Mid-Missouri Valley Saturday night. Lows from the upper teens to lower 20s northwest to the lower to mid 20s southeast. On Sunday, an upstream embedded trough in northerly flow aloft will drop southward behind the departing system.
Lee trough lays just east of a line from Douglas to Torrington to Broadwater this morning. As for Arlington, we are starting to see winds increasing there as well with Halleck Ridge gusting to 55 mph. Gradients begin to ease after 15Z this morning and do expect the High Wind Warnings to end at 10 AM.
519 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Early morning surface map showed the next cold front not too far to our northwest, across southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa. GFS forecast soundings are fairly moist most of the way up, while the NAM is limiting most of the moisture to about the lowest 5,000 feet of atmosphere. Bumped up PoP's a bit due to the strength of the energy coming in, though snow amounts still look on the lower side, mainly a dusting.
1051 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure will result in dry conditions today. Cooler temperatures arrive Monday.
532 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 An arctic cold front will become stationary from northwest to southeast across the area today. Warmer readings near 40 degrees can be expected south and west of the front across far southwest Nebraska and the panhandle.
532 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Rain chances continue today mainly to the south and east of I-68, with dry weather elsewhere under high pressure. Cooler temperatures arrive Monday.
402 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Latest surface analysis showed a 1018mb low over Mississippi coastal waters and a cold front from New York to central Tennessee to southwest Louisiana. Upper air analysis showed a positively tilted broad trough from the Great Lakes to east Texas. The cold frontal passage will occur tonight, northwest winds will increase this evening and a drop in dewpoint readings will occur early Monday morning.
514 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Surface ridging builds into the region.
High pressure will remain in control into mid-week as jetstream + storm track is deflected north.
807 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Rain gradually ends today as a cold front passes.
A dry cold front will bring a wind shift to the north at all sites 21-07 UTC as it moves southward and through Oklahoma and north Texas.
839 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front push off the coast this morning.
High amounts of deep layer moisture and divergence aloft are forecast to reach the area by around 00z and continue into the overnight hours as weak low pressure lifts northeast and the associated frontal boundary approaches. Won't make any changes to the advisory type though, as weak low pressure and a cold front will move across north Florida tonight, causing southerly winds to increase back to around 20 knots.
618 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Rain gradually ends today as a cold front passes.
446 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Current surface analysis has high pressure stretching from the Canadian Prairies to the Northern Plains while modest trough remains to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with trough over the midwest. For today, aforementioned light snow will continue to push to the east in line with modest frontogenesis over southwest North Dakota, but its progression east will be limited by aforementioned high pressure. Temperatures start to rebound on Monday, with warmest temps over the southwest, as west coast ridge works its way over the Rockies.
High pressure aloft will then build into the region through early in the upcoming week, followed by a weak weather disturbance grazing far northern Utah midweek.
Ceilings and visibilities will gradually improve after 15Z as drier air filters into the area in the wake of a weak cold front across the lower Texas coast moving offshore today. Expect VFR conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds into the CWA. /issued 357 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Satellite and radar images continue to indicate convection developing across northeast Mexico into the western Gulf of Mexico along a weak cold front draped across the area early this morning. Highs Monday will be slightly warmer than today.
432 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure slowly building into the region bringing slightly drier northerly winds this morning.
As expected, temperatures have also warmed substantially in the mountains in the last 24 hours, and are mostly in the 30s this morning all the way up to the highest observation points between 7kft and 8kft on the Crater Lake Rim and on Mount Shasta. The mild 5-10 degree above normal weather is expected to linger into Monday night, at which time a cold front is expected to move in from the northwest.
429 AM MST Sun Jan 28 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front south of the forecast area, with high pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows ridge along the west coast, with strong northwest flow extending from southwest Canada into the northern and central Plains. Highs today will range from the upper teens over far northwest SD to the low to mid 30s over northeast WY.
653 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front push off the coast this morning.
A weak backdoor cold front will move into southeast plains late tonight with just a few degrees of cooling to near normal temperatures on Sunday.
This evening and overnight few/scattered mid clouds will be possible as a dry cold front moves through the region. Strong cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma this evening, surging south into the ARKLATX by Monday morning. Cold/breezy conditions expected during the day Monday with lingering low clouds behind the front, especially across northwest Arkansas where temperatures could struggle to reach into the lower 40s.
1051 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A slow moving cold front over east Tennessee and southwest Virginia was producing light rain or drizzle over much of the forecast area late this morning.
As a cold front moves through the area, a noticeable increase in wind speed from the north will be observed with gusts around 20 knots, as well as, an increase in visibilities. /26/ Today and Tonight: Circulation around low pressure along the MS coast continues to provide ascent with areas of rain still occurring over mainly eastern sections. As the low pulls east into AL, low level northerly flow in its wake will limit convergence with the front moving across the area. Drier/cooler air will spread into the region this afternoon and tonight as pressure graident maintains cold air advection.
/issued 341 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ Light winds, clear skies and dry conditions tonight has resulted in good radiational cooling and temperatures near or below freezing will be common across the region come sunrise. Look forward to a very beautiful Sunday as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Looks like we'll still see a secondary shot of cooler air Monday but it will only cool high temperatures by 4 or 5 degrees.
409 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Current surface analysis has high pressure stretching from the Canadian Prairies to the Northern Plains while modest trough remains to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with trough over the midwest. For today, aforementioned light snow will continue to push to the east in line with modest frontogenesis over southwest North Dakota, but its progression east will be limited by aforementioned high pressure. Temperatures start to rebound on Monday, with warmest temps over the southwest, as west coast ridge works its way over the Rockies.
344 AM PST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure aloft and moderate to locally strong and gusty Santa Ana winds will bring well above average high temperatures through Monday.
4 inches but we expect that to come down as the cold front should finally move through later bringing in the much drier air. /issued 402 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ Latest surface analysis showed a 1018mb low over Mississippi coastal waters and a cold front from New York to central Tennessee to southwest Louisiana. Upper air analysis showed a positively tilted broad trough from the Great Lakes to east Texas. The cold frontal passage will occur tonight, northwest winds will increase this evening and a drop in dewpoint readings will occur early Monday morning.
639 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will spread rain across the area through Monday morning.