Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper level ridging over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks was keeping the weather quiet across the Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the low to mid 50s early this morning, making conditions feel more fall like. A return of southerly breezes will allow temperatures to be warmer to the west with mid and upper 50s to 60 expected. However, a cold front will approach from the northwest, triggering showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening.
An upper level trough traveling across the Pacific NW brought light precipitation for most of the area with less than 0. The trough is heading into Idaho and scattered mountain showers will taper off as the day progresses and end overnight. Temperatures will be similar or a tad cooler than yesterday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in the mountains and in the mid 50s to mid 60s in the lower elevations. An upper trough and front have moved east of the area and a northwest flow has developed on the backside of the trough.
Gusty winds are out of the northeast due to this high. Tonight, under clear skies, temperatures will fall to the mid 40s to the low 50s by morning. Tomorrow, the upper ridge axis will move east of the area during the early morning.
A broad upper low is near south Texas, giving way to a ridge axis over the Gulf of Mexico, followed by a tightening mid to upper-level low near the Bahamas. Low-level streamlines place a broad and lengthy trough from the Bay of Campeche to east of the Bahamas. Satellite derived moisture products reveal a broad expanse of deep tropical moisture in-line with the low level troughiness. We expect decreasing shower coverage this evening as the low level flow backs to the northeast, allowing some modified- continental air to erode the tropical profile.
Still expect tonight to be dry as the easterly flow will keep the low levels dry and with no notable forcing for precipitation. This will change on Saturday when the GFS/NAM shows an increase in low level moisture advection during the morning hours in advance of a cold front. This will occur in conjunction with increasing ascent associated with upper low over the Northern Plains. It still appears that the best chance for rain will occur over the northern section of the CWA where the best ascent associated with the upper low will be. Britt There remains decent agreement between the GFS/ECMWF and the GEFS mean that the surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA on Saturday night as the upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes.
242 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Major changes on the way as we get excited about the first significant Fall cold front, but first we have to get through another hot weekend. An upper trough will slide across the Northern Plains this weekend.
Tonight into tomorrow, as the main upper wave moves across the middle of the country, a cold front will move through the forecast area.
1041 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois today and tonight. A cold front will approach the region Saturday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1126 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper ridge sits across the northern Great Plains and a deep trough is pushing into the Pacific NW region. Upper flow is southwesterly across the intermountain region, which is now pushing into the CWA on the backside of the ridge. A cold front will then cross the CWA in the late afternoon through the evening. As the low pressure system pushes east of the CWA, wrap around precip will affect the CWA late tonight. Rain will change to snow across the highest parts of the Black Hills, possibly resulting in minor accumulations.
The moisture transport/theta-e advection will continue to increase this evening into the overnight as the low level jet strengthens to 50+kts.
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will shift east of the region tonight, as a storm system approaches from the west.
An upper level trough will continue to move through the intermountain west for the rest of today and this evening. This has set up a surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms that form within this trough may drift into the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle late this evening. This same system moving across the intermountain west today will send a cold front to the area on Saturday.
Cold front will also sweep across the CWA tonight as a potent upper trough moves across. Saturday looks breezy and dry with cooler temperatures.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ A weak cold front was located just south of Interstate 20 around 2030z. Model guidance, including most of the high-resolution CAMs has been extremely poor with this activity. On Saturday, an upper ridge over the Southeast CONUS will flatten and move farther east. As a new ridge builds over Northwest Mexico, an longwave trough be moving east over the Northern U. The first major cold front of our Fall season will be developing far to the northwest over Northern Oklahoma.
Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad trough draped across the western United States. These showers are due to moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Narda interacting with the large scale trough. As the trough pushes eastward, weak zonal flow under the influence of a large scale ridge will move over the Southwest U. Smoke from a prescribed fire near the Blue Ridge Reservoir may cause reduced visibilities in areas near and and south of KINW. A trough will bring southwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts from 20 to 30 MPH this afternoon.
19z Surface analysis places a cold front from Southern Alabama and Mississippi then back through Northern Louisiana and into Central Texas. Cold air advection and north winds behind the rain free cold front has brought much more tolerable temperatures to the Mid-South today.
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Seasonably cool weather returns today after the passage of a cold front. Overcast to broken sky shall linger into the early afternoon due to a cooler air mass moving over a warm (69F) Lake Erie. Due to a high percentage of cloud cover and cold advection, temperatures shall not venture far from the low-60s/upper-50s. With high pressure shifting towards Northern New York, a clear cool night is in store across the region. High pressure shall continue to slide eastward through Saturday, which will place PBZ in southerly flow ahead of a deepening low across the Northern Plains.
The latest RAP continues to show that the low ceilings will scatter out west of the Mississippi River between 4 PM and 7 PM and 7 PM and 10 PM for the remainder of the area. While we will be losing the low clouds temporarily, the mid and high clouds will be quickly moving into the region ahead of a negatively tilted short wave trough.
Northerly to northeasterly winds are forecast over the next 24 hours of around 5-10 kts with the cold front now to the south.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move east across the Northern Rockies today. An associated cold front will generate scattered showers as it crosses northern Utah this afternoon and evening. Colder temperatures behind this front this weekend will begin to warm as high pressure aloft expands east across the region early in the week. Most locations will remain dry both along and in the wake of this feature, with the exception being locations along and north of I-80 where dynamic lift associated with the approach of the mid level trough coupled with cold air aloft will support showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A cold frontal passage has shifted winds to the northwest and should allow winds to become gusty through the day.
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois today and tonight. A cold front will approach the region Saturday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The center of the ridge will move east into the Great Lakes region thru the day. Expect Sat to be a few degrees warmer as winds become more southerly. That said, the warm front is not expected to lift thru the area until Sat evening. Have trended just slightly warmer than MOS for Sat. Then a cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
Showers fell overnight and continue this morning in our CWA as an upper trough moves in.
1254 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 [Through 18Z Saturday] High pressure will continue to dominate across the region. Elongated upper ridge will slowly weaken today but will remain largely oriented east to west across the southeast US. A surface cold front is located north of the area across TN and northern MS and will slowly move south through today. The front wont make it into our area given the upper ridge. However, there appears to be enough surface convergence along the trough to spark isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in areas west of the Apalachicola and Flint rivers.
High pressure will keep things quiet across central Indiana through Saturday.
215 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Broad high pressure aloft over the southeast will continue to weaken and shift over the Atlantic through the weekend as a trough approaches from the west. At the surface, a stronger high pressure over the Northeast will build southward toward the region, tightening the pressure gradient for the weekend.
808 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Colder temperatures behind the cold front this weekend will begin to warm as high pressure aloft expands east across the region early in the week. With the trough pulling to our east, strong height rises and warming aloft have ended the threat of precipitation. Winds will abate across the north late this evening with high pressure building in. Otherwise cooler air in the wake of this boundary is advecting into the area, and will keep max temperatures roughly 10 degrees below climo Saturday.
The wake of yesterdays passing front gave us a comfortable start to the day, and this afternoon temps while still above normal are much cooler than Thu. Highs centered east of as a weak inverted LL trough axis sets up just to our northeast. Moisture advection gets into full swing Sat night in advance of a long-wave upper trough and an approaching cold front. This cold front will continue tracking southeastward ahead of the upper trough, moving into our northwest early Sun evening, across and out Mon morning. Instability nor shear especially strong with this system but we seem to have enhanced vertical motion Sat evening and more so Sun afternoon/night into Mon as the front and trailing upper trough pass. Progressive flow however brings another cold front across us Fri into Sat.
A wind shift is expected for all terminals tomorrow as another cold front moves through the CWA. An upper level trough will continue to move through the intermountain west for the rest of today and this evening. This has set up a surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms that form within this trough may drift into the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle late this evening. This same system moving across the intermountain west today will send a cold front to the area on Saturday.
Strong surface ridging east of the Appalachians will turn the winds southerly for Saturday. Moisture wrapping around surface ridging across the Carolinas will pull some bounday layer moisture into CHA with ceilings dropping to 4kft in the afternoon.
After baking in record heat for the first 3 days this month, it finally feels like fall across Middle Tennessee in the wake of a cold front that moved through earlier today. With cooler and drier air continuing to be advected in from the north, lows will fall into the 50s areawide.
A couple of upper troughs will cross Western Washington today and Saturday for a chance of showers each day.
/issued 242 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019/ Major changes on the way as we get excited about the first significant Fall cold front, but first we have to get through another hot weekend. An upper trough will slide across the Northern Plains this weekend.
As for temperatures, fairly decent difference between sheltered valleys and ridges. Winds will remain 5 to 10 mph across the ridge tops keeping temperatures up, but sheltered valleys will allow winds to be calm producing good radiational cooling. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 64 85 / 0 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 87 64 83 / 0 20 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 87 63 83 / 0 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 77 58 79 / 10 20 30 40.
Low and mid level clouds are forecast to return to the CWA during the morning hours Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Upper wave will shift into the northern/central Plains on Saturday with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma by early afternoon.
629 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Strong low level warm advection will help maintain the low level overcast, while generating enough lift with the approaching upper wave to start shower initiation. This is out ahead of our next upstream mid/upper low/trough now crossing central Idaho. A 100kt jet streak is in the process of rounding the base of the trough, which will result in a stronger/negatively tilted upper trough when it arrives later tonight into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow ensues as a departing closed upper low exits into Ontario.
836 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Low level easterly flow persists across the area with ridge north of the region. Otherwise dry conditions generally expected, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
822 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will continue to shift to the east which will bring our winds out of the easterly direction for much of the day tomorrow. /issued 215 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019/ Broad high pressure aloft over the southeast will continue to weaken and shift over the Atlantic through the weekend as a trough approaches from the west. At the surface, a stronger high pressure over the Northeast will build southward toward the region, tightening the pressure gradient for the weekend.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move east across the Northern Rockies today. An associated cold front will generate scattered showers as it crosses northern Utah this afternoon and evening. Colder temperatures behind this front this weekend will begin to warm as high pressure aloft expands east across the region early in the week.
Morning lows should range from the low 50s to low 60s, coolest near the Tennessee River, warmest around the Memphis Metro. 19z Surface analysis places a cold front from Southern Alabama and Mississippi then back through Northern Louisiana and into Central Texas. Cold air advection and north winds behind the rain free cold front has brought much more tolerable temperatures to the Mid-South today.
Satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad trough draped across the western United States. For the weekend, high pressure will strengthen across northern Arizona leading to a period of quiet weather, lighter winds and near normal temperatures.
All terminals should anticipate this to start immediately after storm passage and continue until around 05/15Z to 05/18Z, when a cold front arrives to dry the area out with northerly winds. Gusts could be as high as 25 to 30 kts behind the cold front tomorrow.
Strong low level warm advection will help maintain the low level overcast, while generating enough lift with the approaching upper wave to start shower initiation. This is out ahead of our next upstream mid/upper low/trough now crossing central Idaho. A 100kt jet streak is in the process of rounding the base of the trough, which will result in a stronger/negatively tilted upper trough when it arrives later tonight into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow ensues as a departing closed upper low exits into Ontario.
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Currently across the Florida Keys, temperatures are in the lower 80s to near 80 degrees with dew points clinging to the mid 70s. These layers (especially the lowest) are acting to suppress most convective activity, with isolated to widely scattered coverage currently detected on radar.
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will shift east of the region tonight, as a storm system approaches from the west.
825 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will shift east of the region tonight, as a storm system approaches from the west.
Saturday looks nice with sunshine and warmer temperatures.
As the low closes off a contiguous shield of rain will develop across central North Dakota late this morning and into the early afternoon with the deformation zone.
Broad upper level troughing was underway across the Plains this morning, forcing a large areas of showers and thunderstorms that extended from Kansas up through Minnesota.
As these storms move out of the area, expecting to see additional storm development across far eastern Nebraska as the low level jet increases to 50 knots.
A Low pressure system will slide through the upper Midwest today, dropping a cold front southward through the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This will swing through the area overnight, continuing the cooler temperatures and dry conditions to end the weekend. A large scale 500mb trof will continue to be driven across the northern US, as the Polar Jet stream drives the weather pattern throughout the Midwest. A Low pressure system will track through the northern Plains this morning, shifting into the upper Midwest this evening. This system will drape a cold front through the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
Clearing skies and lighter winds setting up for tonight as an upper trough exits the region. Areas that saw precipitation earlier today will have the best chance for fog development overnight, to include portions of the lower Treasure Valley.
There is a cold front to the west of the forecast area early this morning. As the front moves into the area the low clouds and fog will move out of the area.
Scattered to broken high clouds should become common across the CWA overnight tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. chances for showers and thunderstorms along/near the cold front are forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma late morning/early afternoon and spread into parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas into the evening hours.
218 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 NE Montana will be between systems today as low pressure and upper trough moves to the east while the next system moves through the area tonight on NW flow aloft.
Slightly warmer highs are in store for Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s north to around 70 south.
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 We will have a cold front moving though the area over the next 8 hours or so. In the very short near term however, a narrow axis of elevated CAPE, steeper mid level lapse rates will move eastward as a couple of rounds of broken - line thunderstorms develop, initially across south central Kansas between 9 and 11 UTC, followed by another narrow band that may develop just a bit farther west and more associated with the low level convergence to the synoptic front around 12 UTC. Beyond this morning sky will clear for a sunny day with temperatures fairly uniform in the low 70s behind the surface front.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along a surface cold front currently in far northwest KS, which will sweep quickly across the forecast area this morning through the early afternoon. An immediate drop in moisture is expected behind the cold front, quickly clearing out precipitation this afternoon and resulting in a dry evening and overnight period.
Currently, we are sandwiched between a weak low in eastern Texas, and an approaching upper level trough from the west, with clear skies. The northern plains low will send a cold front south, which will stall just north of our area.
A cold front will shift winds to the north later this morning for the northern terminals, and by early afternoon for KAMA. All terminals should anticipate this to start immediately after storm passage and continue until around 05/15Z to 05/18Z, when a cold front arrives to dry the area out with northerly winds. Gusts could be as high as 25 to 30 kts behind the cold front tomorrow.
An area of showers associated with weak wave ahead of the cold front is currently moving across NE KS and NW MO. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of a cold front currently across central Nebraska and Kansas and move east at a good pace. Behind the cold front it will clear out with sunshine across parts of the area by afternoon and slightly cooler.
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low pressure system over eastern WY.
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Cold front has just entered northwest KS, with a band of pre-frontal showers/isolated thunderstorms in the leading warm air advection region. The cold front will accelerate east this morning, with convection becoming more widespread and eventually entering northeast OK by mid-morning. The front will slow and stall across southeast OK overnight, with widespread showers/embedded storms developing north of the boundary as the low-level jet strengthens.
1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will shift east of the region tonight, as a storm system approaches from the west.
This weakness is showing up as an area of lower and mid level clouds across the Carolinas with an inverted trough along the spine of the Appalachians. upper trough and surface frontal system.
We will have a cold front moving though the area over the next 8 hours or so. In the very short near term however, a narrow axis of elevated CAPE, steeper mid level lapse rates will move eastward as a couple of rounds of broken - line thunderstorms develop, initially across south central Kansas between 9 and 11 UTC, followed by another narrow band that may develop just a bit farther west and more associated with the low level convergence to the synoptic front around 12 UTC. Beyond this morning sky will clear for a sunny day with temperatures fairly uniform in the low 70s behind the surface front. Highs mainly in the 60s as a weak upper ridge moves through the Plains early in the week.
Showers will be most concentrated near PNC through early afternoon, and then renewed more vigorous convection could occur across east-central portions of the area along the cold front. On Sunday, a stronger upper level wave will approach along with a cold front.
359 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 A couple troughs sweep through the larger scale upper trough over the north central and central portion of the U.
523 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor imagery/upper air analysis shows a compact closed upper low now pushing across the CWA into southwest North Dakota. Upper ridging sets up across the western CONUS through Sunday as dry weather continues across the region.
639 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 For today, a sunny sky with warmer high temperatures from around 60 northwest, to 60 to 65 across the south and east. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 50s northwest Sandhills to the lower 60s across the southeast.
Latest observations showed impressive pressure rises of 1 to 2 mb per hour across the western zones with the approaching area of high pressure. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler thanks to the front that moved through overnight. Highs for the plains should stay in the low to mid 60s with upper 50s further west and in the higher terrain. Precipitation is not expected as high pressure dominates over the next 24 hours.
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor imagery along with upper air analysis shows a weak upper level trough over south Texas and the extreme western portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Downstream of this feature remains a large and persistent upper level ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula. Further downstream a mid/upper level trough resides over the eastern Bahamas. Low levels continue to show a steady, elongated trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic extending from Bay of Campeche to the Bahamas. Satellite derived moisture products reveal a broad expanse of deep tropical moisture associated with this trough.