Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Its quite possible that several locations struggle to break freezing today. Arctic high pressure shifts out of the Northern Plains across to the eastern states through the first half of this week. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is going to swing across the Tennessee Valley and try to wring out limited moisture into precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning.
/issued 1012 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020/ The trailing edge of the cold front extends across southwest Florida this morning. Areas north of this front are seeing clear skies and much cooler temperatures this morning. Interaction between a cold front over southern Florida and strong high pressure over the central U.
1242 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 High pressure will slowly build into the area through mid week.
Temps at the surface are expected to remain above freezing as CAA will be non-existent as surface winds remain out of the south to southeast with cooling coming in the form of web bulbing. Surface WAA should help keep temps mostly above freezing rain threshold.
1210 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Under variably cloudy skies and north winds varying between 10 and 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the Florida Keys. A distinct cold front over south central Florida will drive southeastward and exit our entire region this evening. Meanwhile, weak cold air advection blowing across relatively warm nearshore Gulf and Bay waters will result in changeable skies with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 70s across most of the island chain. A cold front currently pushing through southern Florida will reach the EYW and MTH terminals this afternoon. Temperatures Tuesday night across the island chain will vary between the mid and upper 40s in the Upper Keys to the lower 50s in the Lower Keys which will be the coldest temperatures so far this winter season.
Tuesday will be dry and warmer, but the southerly winds will make it still feel rather cold. Areas in far western Minnesota could see wind gusts near 40 mph later tonight into Tuesday as downsloping occurs along the Buffalo Ridge.
Short-term models are consistent with showing low pressure system will quickly drop southward through the Tennessee Valley by late tonight, then cross Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind this system, with clear conditions prevailing.
In addition, southerly flow should continue to bring warmer temperatures and with ample sunshine improvement should continue. The lowest visibilities are along the western or leading edge. Clear skies prevail through much of the day as high pressure slowly moves eastward, giving way to H5 ridging as we head into Tuesday. Tuesday brings much warmer temperatures to the region as the western ridge builds eastward. Highs are expected to climb into the lower 20s in the Lake of the Woods region with near 30 degrees in the southern James Valley, closer to the ridge axis.
High pressure will move east today, allowing a series of weak weather systems to pass through the region through midweek. High pressure will return late in the week. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis trends indicate the axis of a mid level ridge shifting east and allowing an increasingly moist southwesterly flow to impinge on the area, this in advance of a disorganized trough over the eastern Pacific. Two features to note within this trough, a weak upper level short wave off the SoCal coast, and a more consolidated upper low oriented off the Oregon coast near 140W.
Under mostly sunny skies due to subsident northwest flow aloft, temperatures today to only make it into the lower 50s. Expect overnight lows to drop below freezing areawide with the vast majority of the area in the mid to upper 20s by early Tuesday morning.
1250 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Chilly high pressure into midweek. Wind from this direction is not really great upslope flow, so not expecting widespread snow showers, but with weak cold air advection in the low levels, we should continue to see the last of the moisture being squeezed out as light flurries. Temperatures at 850mb begin to increase through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, which should spell an end to any lingering flurries and allow the low clouds to scatter out through mid to late morning. Temperature wise, went on the cooler side of guidance for today and tonight, and then closer to a consensus blend for Tuesday.
Hooley Ridge of high pressure will be over the area today into tomorrow for warmer and dry conditions.
Temperatures trend warmer by mid to late week ahead of our next system for late week with a chance for rain and snow. This transitory cloud cover and a low level inversion may help to keep temperatures from falling tonight, but if clouds do break, expect temperatures to fall back into the single digits, especially with the ridging edging in late tonight. Height falls begin to increase in earnest behind the southeastward moving clipper system from Canada after midnight tonight with the entrance of the strong trailing high pressure system.
The next chance for widespread rain and/or snow will be this weekend as a strong low pressure system moves up the Ohio River Valley. Inversion heights have lowered to between 850 and 900 mb, but the thermal profile remains cold enough such that there is sufficient moisture in the lower dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ) to produce light. As the mid-level ridge axis shifts eastward Tuesday night, a backing of the wind to a SW direction will bring in warmer low-level air and quickly erode the cap and existing cloud deck. By mid-week, an amplifying trough across the plains will place the PBZ forecast under southwest flow.
237 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Cold high pressure will build overhead for tonight and Tuesday providing fair but cold weather. The high will gradually move off to the east mid to late week allowing for a warm up. Low pressure may affect the region over the weekend. High pressure will remain over the forecast area on Tuesday providing another day of cold weather but with much less wind. Clouds should be on the increase during the afternoon as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest.
BY FAR THE COOLEST WEATHER FOR THIS EARLY WINTER SEASON Under partly cloudy skies and north winds of around 15 mph, temperatures are mainly in the lower Keys. A cold front over South Florida will pass through our entire area later this evening, followed by cooler and drier air.
1051 AM MST Mon Jan 20 2020 An upper level ridge will move over the area today, leading to dry weather and temperatures that are generally above average across the southeast plains, Teller county, and in the Upper Arkansas River Valley. Tonight, the upper ridge will shift east of CO as an upper trof moves into the Great Basin.
1012 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 The trailing edge of the cold front extends across southwest Florida this morning. Areas north of this front are seeing clear skies and much cooler temperatures this morning. Interaction between a cold front over southern Florida and strong high pressure over the central U.
Strong high pressure will be northwest of the region through Tonight, with a low pressure trough to the southeast.
Temperatures may return to near normal by late week as low pressure develops over the Deep South.
Our next opportunity for widespread precipitation will be Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow in the lowlands and light to moderate snow accumulations in the mountains. Also bumped up the high temperatures a few degrees as well where the mild downslope easterly winds should allow high temperatures to reach the low 40s on the palouse with mid 40s for the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley.
High pressure ridging will hold over the forecast area today into tonight. A zonal flow aloft will prevail Tuesday as the ridge gets flattened in response to an upper low and trough that moves onto the Washington and B. Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees more with readings ranging from the lower 40s along the Dakota borders to upper 40s along the foothills.
1255 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Snow should end today as high pressure builds in.
210 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 Rather quiet stretch of weather remains on track for tonight into Tuesday, as high pressure works through the region. Will have to closely watch trends into the evening as we begin to develop return flow with the high passing just west of the local area, as it is possible for any residual stratus to be lifted back north for a time. Regardless, Tuesday does look a little warmer with highs back into the teens and lower 20s and plentiful sunshine (maybe some late day high clouds), though gusty conditions won't help the cause.
Cloud cover streaming in from the north associated with a quick moving clipper system should prevent temps from dropping as cold as last night, but still quite cold with overnight lows in the lower 20s. Wind chills overnight will be in the lower teens. Ridging over the Plains slowly pushes eastward as high pressure over the mid-atlantic weakens.
TYS may see this low deck go scattered tonight but there will be midlevel clouds building in that will linger through the rest of the period.
235 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 A light flow off Lake Ontario will still keep a few clouds and flurries around parts of central New York this week, but for the most part high pressure will dominate the weather with mainly quiet conditions. High pressure building into the region will offer up mainly dry and cold conditions for the bulk of our forecast area in the near term.
1227 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Snow should end today as high pressure builds in.
130 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Northwest flow aloft and a large area of high pressure at the surface building southeast from the Upper Mississippi Valley will bring a lengthy string of dry days this week.
249 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Potent 990mb low pressure has lifted north of Labrador, well to the north/northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. Winds remain breezy this afternoon, but winds continue to gradually diminish as pressure gradient slackens with high pressure building into the region. Some mid teens possible in typically cooler spots. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the low to mid 20s.
146 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 A light flow off Lake Ontario will still keep a few clouds and flurries around parts of central New York this week, but for the most part high pressure will dominate the weather with mainly quiet conditions. High pressure building into the region will offer up mainly dry and cold conditions for the bulk of our forecast area in the near term.
High pressure will generally be present across the region in the short term. However, have opted to follow the optimistic clearing trend indicated in the high-resolution guidance. Low pressure will bring the possibility for wintry weather and additional rainfall to the region midweek. The period starts dry, however, under the influence of high pressure centered along the Ohio Valley. South flow over central Illinois will result in non- diurnal temperature trends Tuesday night with temps either holding steady in the lower 20s or inching up.
328 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 High pressure will slowly build into the area through mid week.
Short term model discrepancies noted when it comes to actual location depiction of generally northwest to southeast upper level low movement across mid state region as tonight progresses.
558 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 Rather quiet stretch of weather remains on track for tonight into Tuesday, as high pressure works through the region. Will have to closely watch trends into the evening as we begin to develop return flow with the high passing just west of the local area, as it is possible for any residual stratus to be lifted back north for a time. Regardless, Tuesday does look a little warmer with highs back into the teens and lower 20s and plentiful sunshine (maybe some late day high clouds), though gusty conditions won't help the cause.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure was over the region early this afternoon while a trough of low pressure was approaching the West Coast. Moisture streaming out ahead of the trough was responsible for the clouds moving into the western half of the ridge. As the ridge axis is forced east of the Continental Divide by the trough over the eastern Pacific moisture deepens this evening with light showers developing late, mainly over the San Juan Mountains and the eastern Uintas of northeast Utah. Model QPF output not all that impressive, though snow, with mixed precipitation and rain in the lower valleys, will be fairly widespread during the day.
The warmer air mass may introduce the possibility of some freezing drizzle from the southern valley into west central MN during this time.
, the backdoor cold front that has been in our area the last couple days will move back to the southwest tonight into Tuesday morning. Cooler and drier air will advect back to the southwest into the area. This will result in cooler temperatures for most locations tomorrow (also cooler due to increased cloud cover/decreased insolation). Isentropic ascent and warm air advection downstream from the aforementioned trough will result in a low chance of rain beginning late afternoon across the west as well.
The low temperature forecast for tonight remains a bit tricky, since mostly clear skies should promote quick cooling; however, some mixing in the low levels will likely prevent ideal radiational cooling from occurring in most places tonight. The balance between MOS-based and raw model guidance gives a range of low temperatures from around 23 degrees in the colder, hillier spots of east-central MS to around 27 or 28 degrees around the lower lying spots of southern Mississippi and northwestward through the Delta region.
752 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 High pressure will drift across the Midwest through Tuesday, with lingering clouds moving out and temperatures warmer than on Monday.
The last of the low clouds are finally scattering out this afternoon and skies should be clear tonight with high pressure nosing in from the northern Plains. Many models are leaning toward a slightly warmer forecast, probably due to bias correction, so I undercut the guidance. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 20s, similar to today.
The next chance for widespread rain and/or snow will be this weekend as a strong low pressure system moves up the Ohio River Valley. As the mid-level ridge axis shifts eastward Tuesday night, a backing of the wind to a SW direction will bring in warmer low-level air and quickly erode the cap and existing cloud deck. By mid-week, an amplifying trough across the plains will place the PBZ forecast under southwest flow.
The direct effect of WAA may be slightly muted due to increasing midlevel cloud cover with the approaching midlevel trough. Subtle midlevel height falls associated with approaching the trough and isentropic ascent should result in widespread precipitation near/shortly after 00Z for areas west of Highway 77, although a plethora of low level dry air could delay this until the profile saturates. By Tuesday evening, thermal profiles are likely to be below freezing and should result in all-snow, at least initially.
Currently, upper level ridge axis building east into the Northern Plains this afternoon, with mid level WAA spreading east across the Dakotas with a surface warm front over eastern Montana. Temperatures much warmer than 24 hours ago, already well into the 20s west with low 30s far southwest. Ridge moves east across the region tonight along with the warm front moving into western ND, increasing low level WAA into the Dakotas. In the wake of the ridge axis, upper level clouds will increase from west to east tonight, becoming mostly cloudy west late this evening and statewide by 12Z Tuesday. Warm front continues to advance eastward across my central and eastern counties Tuesday daytime.
A tricky sky forecast will be seen tonight as some clearing will try to build in from the northwest as the area of high pressure moves towards the region. If more of the area clears, these colder readings could be seen just about anywhere with temperatures into the lower to middle teens. Tomorrow, the area of high pressure should quickly move in eroding whatever is left of the clouds and allowing a return to sunshine areawide. Highs should rebound into the lower to mid 30s after the chilly start. With high pressure setting up overhead Tuesday night, expect our coldest night for the entire area with many valley locations likely reaching the single digits.
Progged thermodynamic profiles suggest that this will be a rain/snow event, with typically cooler guidance - in particular the NAM - suggesting snow will be dominant. In either case, if snow does occur, expect it to be a relatively wet snow, as the lowest ~5000 feet of NAM soundings show temperatures below but close to 0C. Best chance for snow to mix in will be with any precipitation that arrives early in the afternoon before the low levels warm sufficiently. Latest trends will need to be examined closely - an overall cooler trend of just a couple degrees or earlier arrival would lead to potentially impactful snowfall.
High pressure continues to weaken over western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon ahead of an approaching weather system. As a warm frontal feature moves into the region tonight into Tuesday morning, very light precipitation is expected to develop. Precipitation will likely fall as light snow, though some pockets of freezing drizzle are possible. A cold front and upper level trough will swing through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing a period of accumulating snow to mountain passes across northwest Montana and along the Idaho/western Montana border.
While accumulations will be light, minor to moderate road impacts are anticipated this afternoon into early evening as untreated roadways become icy as vehicles compact the snow onto a sub- freezing surface. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be warmer than today as an upper- level ridge axis builds across the Central CONUS.
434 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2020 Warmer air is flowing into the region this afternoon as the upper ridge builds over the region from the west.
524 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 Temps should fall pretty quickly this evening given clear skies and light winds; expect readings to fall into the low teens by mid to late evening. The last of the low clouds are finally scattering out this afternoon and skies should be clear tonight with high pressure nosing in from the northern Plains. Many models are leaning toward a slightly warmer forecast, probably due to bias correction, so I undercut the guidance. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 20s, similar to today.
Any of this lower moisture/cigs will slowly sct out through the overnight hours revealing only mid clouds associated with a passing upr wave. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 41 23 48 32 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 37 21 47 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 38 22 46 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 35 19 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0.
538 PM MST Mon Jan 20 2020 A backdoor cold front has been moving west across the CWA today. As of 21Z, the cold front was situated diagonally across the center of the GLD CWA. This occurs ahead of an approaching 500 mb trough. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower teens to 20s tonight. There is potential for some fog/freezing fog tonight/tomorrow morning in the southwest corner of the CWA.
600 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Cold high pressure will build overhead for tonight and Tuesday providing fair but cold weather. The high will gradually move off to the east mid to late week allowing for a warm up. Low pressure may affect the region over the weekend. Clear and cold night in progress with high pressure building in overnight from the west. Still some light flow over the area but these will drop off as ridging shifts east and subsidence increases. High pressure will remain over the forecast area on Tuesday providing another day of cold weather but with much less wind. Clouds should be on the increase during the afternoon as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest.
527 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 The 00Z TAF cycle will bring VFR conditions yet again, under nwly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Another cold night expected across the ArkLaTex with temperatures forecast to fall to at or below freezing areawide. Surface and upper-ridge responsible for cold and stable conditions across the ArkLaTex to begin to slide east on Tuesday. Portions of extreme northeast Texas and McCurtain county could experience snow after midnight as moisture begins to saturate the column and precipitate out before temperatures recover above freezing. As the morning progresses, warmer air advection at the low to mid levels will bring a transition from snow to sleet and eventually freezing rain as the coldest layer will be at the surface where temperatures will be in the lower 30s.
Expansive high pressure across the mid section of the country will spill colder air into the southeast and Florida into mid week as another reinforcing mid level wave brings colder air by tomorrow night. Another subtle low/trough feature offshore will move south and increase the gradient near the coast and over the Atlantic overnight with lighter winds to 5-10 mph where the temps are expected to get the coldest across portions of Lake and interior Volusia counties. A Gale Watch is in effect Tue afternoon through Wed afternoon with a tight gradient on the back side of low pressure developing offshore.
The next chance for rain will be associated with a passing cold front, which is currently off the PacNW Coast. The cold front is on track to move toward the NorCal Coast tonight and then push through the Bay Area on Tuesday. Warm advection light rain will develop over the North Bay tonight and then precip will increase in coverage with the cold front early Tuesday.
The next chance for widespread rain and/or snow will be this weekend as a strong low pressure system moves up the Ohio River Valley. This is shown nicely on the 00Z PIT sounding, with the highest RH layer just below 850mb has a temperature of about -15C. As the mid-level ridge axis shifts eastward Tuesday night, a backing of the wind to a SW direction will bring in warmer low-level air and quickly erode the cap and existing cloud deck. By mid-week, an amplifying trough across the plains will place the PBZ forecast under southwest flow.
Troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS coupled with Canadian high pressure at the surface that has migrated south into the Upper Midwest continues cold air advection into the state. Most guidance indicates this cloudiness should diminish overnight allowing temps to fall precipitously to freezing or just below across the upper Nature Coast. Continued light northerly flow will likely make feels-like temps a few degrees cooler.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Another cold night expected across the ArkLaTex with temperatures forecast to fall to at or below freezing areawide. Surface and upper-ridge responsible for cold and stable conditions across the ArkLaTex to begin to slide east on Tuesday. Portions of extreme northeast Texas and McCurtain county could experience snow after midnight as moisture begins to saturate the column and precipitate out before temperatures recover above freezing. As the morning progresses, warmer air advection at the low to mid levels will bring a transition from snow to sleet and eventually freezing rain as the coldest layer will be at the surface where temperatures will be in the lower 30s.
VFR conditions should prevail for the first half of the forecast period, but cigs should begin coming down to MVFR KCNM after 12Z as an upper trough moves into the region. /issued 203 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/ Surface ridging finally starts to wane Tue.
As the trough reaches the area late Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening, the gradient slackens, resulting in diminishing wind speeds. With the developing WAA, will see high temperatures on Tuesday range from the mid 20s east to the lower 40s west, with lows Tuesday night mainly in the lower 20s.