Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
146 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Thanks to benign northwest flow aloft and a slowly building ridge, quiet weather is expected through noon Saturday with mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures about 5 degrees above average. A subtle vorticity maximum moves through the low-amplitude ridge, and the associated vertical motion should provide a focusing mechanism for afternoon convection.
314 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 254 PM CDT We have relatively quiet weather behind a cold front that is passing through the southern quarter of my forecast region, dropping dewpoints from previous lower 70s into mid to lower 50s F.
212 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will continue to push across the area today, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of Interstate 69 this afternoon/early evening. Cold front continues to push from NW to SE across the forecast area this afternoon. Cold front moves southeast of the forecast area just after 8PM EDT which will remove precip chances. The cooler post-frontal airmass will allow overnight low temperatures to drop into the upper 50s. The cooler temperatures and abundant ground moisture could result in patchy ground fog Saturday morning. Dry conditions are anticipated on Saturday as high pressure builds over the western Great Lakes/western Ohio River Valley.
An upper level trough in Canada transporting a cool, dry air mass into the region will move off to the east as a ridge moves over the Northland.
the highest precip potentials should shift southward with the movement of the boundary with chance pops possible late tonight/Saturday morning. cooler conditions are forecast with lows tonight in the upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south. The cooler conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend with highs slightly below the seasonal average. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain possible for the weekend as the surface frontal boundary and also a weak upper level low hold over the region. near the upper low.
These storms are out ahead of a cold front that is draped across Indiana, Illinois and through the Plains. The upper level ridge that has weakened over the past 24 hours will hang out over our area which will allow for daily showers and thunderstorms through late week.
1201 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge that has kept Texas in the searing heat will start to break down today as a trough over the Great Lakes starts to dig further south. A cold front located over the Central Plains will dip into the Southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of it, a weak area of low pressure will develop over the Panhandle and drift slowly eastward. Despite the higher chances for rain and more clouds, the airmass is still quite warm, so high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today. Otherwise, the airmass will continue to be warm and humid overnight, allowing for low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Main change during the short term is the upper low near Hudson bay will shift off to the east. This will send the high pressure currently over SD today into the southern Great Lakes on Saturday.
908 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Dry northwest flow aloft, with slowly building heights from a ridge axis to our west, will result in dry conditions with seasonable temps today. JKL High pressure building into the region from the west will maintain dry conditions over the area today.
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will settle south across central Illinois today bringing a few showers and storms mainly to areas along or south of I-72.
The clear skies, light winds, and lower dew points will also allow for cooler temps once again. Overnight lows will range from the low to middle 40s across the Northwoods, to the upper 40s to middle 50s from east- central WI to the lake shore. Very few clouds are expect as high pressure slides across the state. Northwest flow aloft early in the period will gradually transition to a weak split flow pattern by late in the weekend, with flattened ridging present from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes.
Currently, the area sits in northwesterly flow aloft between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over the northern Great Lakes. Ascent continues to increase over the higher terrain of WY/CO with the approach of the upper wave, and is anticipated to spark some thunderstorms this afternoon. Surface moisture continues to decrease locally as diurnal mixing continues, with areas along and north of I-80 with dewpoints in the low to middle 40s. Unfortunately, this low will pass off to our south and east and keep the bulk of precipitation out of our area.
/issued 917 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021/ High pressure over the area is keeping east to northeast winds across the Sunshine State this morning.
757 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Aviation - Cooler with relatively dry air through the weekend - Warmer temperatures with an increased risk of showers midweek - Next more significant precipitation event late in the week - Cooler with relatively dry air through the weekend As well signaled by the MJO going into phase 2, and our models continue have been forecasting for over a week, the cooler air has arrived and will remain in place through the week. Actually the first few days of August will turn out be cooler than this push of cold air this weekend since the polar jet does not get south of us.
736 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend, bringing cooler and less humid conditions. Cold frontal boundary in the Great Lakes will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s northwest behind the front to around 70 southeast. On Saturday, the cold front will exit south into Kentucky. There may be a lingering shower early in the southeast; otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. It will be drier and cooler as our low level flow will be from the north to northeast around 10 to 15 mph. To start the period, broad high pressure extends over much of the Great Lakes region.
719 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will slip southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight into Saturday, with building high pressure behind the front. A cold front will begin to slip southeastward across the commonwealth overnight, ushering in a cooler and less humid airmass. Mid-level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of PA Saturday. However, high pwats and low-level convergence are enough to maintain the chance of showers and a few storms along and south of the cold front, as it sags southward through the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will turn cool across the north, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the cooler spots of the NW mtns.
736 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will slip southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight into Saturday, with building high pressure behind the front. A cold front will begin to slip southeastward across the commonwealth overnight, ushering in a cooler and less humid airmass. Mid-level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of PA Saturday. However, high pwats and low-level convergence are enough to maintain the chance of showers and a few storms along and south of the cold front, as it sags southward through the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will turn cool across the north, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the cooler spots of the NW mtns.
355 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Thanks to benign northwest flow aloft and a slowly building ridge, quiet weather is expected through noon Saturday with mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures about 5 degrees above average. A subtle vorticity maximum moves through the low-amplitude ridge, and the associated vertical motion should provide a focusing mechanism for afternoon convection.
1032 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will slip southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight into Saturday, with building high pressure behind the front. As a cold front begins to slip southeastward across the commonwealth overnight, lower dewpoints will begin to return to NW PA. Mid-level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of PA on Saturday. However, high pwats and low-level convergence should be enough to maintain the chance of showers and a few storms along and south of the cold front, as it continues to sag southward through the remainder of central PA. Temperatures will turn cool across the north, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the cooler spots of the NW mtns.
701 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A significantly drier airmass is now advancing into Se Mi in the wake of the cold front which is now exiting Se Mi. High pressure expanding into Lower Mi from the west tonight will sustain a light NW-N wind. The cold front is slowly dropping across SE MI this afternoon, currently residing in between I-69 and M-59. Much drier air follows the front with upstream dewpoints over northern lower already down in the low 50s/upper 40s helping to clear skies out for tonight.
608 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will push into the Ohio Valley by daybreak. Cooler and less humid air will filter into the region. Cold front continues to push from NW to SE across the forecast area this afternoon. Cold front moves southeast of the forecast area just after 8PM EDT which will remove precip chances. The cooler post-frontal airmass will allow overnight low temperatures to drop into the upper 50s. The cooler temperatures and abundant ground moisture could result in patchy ground fog Saturday morning. Dry conditions are anticipated on Saturday as high pressure builds over the western Great Lakes/western Ohio River Valley.
747 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
Ir images indicating shear aloft over the region and a upper level trof down the western side of Florida.
What is left of the cold front remains south of the KS/OK border where the bulk of the convection has been over the last several hours. With a broad area of weak downglide in the low and mid levels, feel that the odds of getting a storm overnight is too low to mention. The high PW airmass that remains in place will make for efficient rainfall with any storms that can develop. Still looking like we have a couple of weak waves that traverse the area to start the work week while a more pronounced trough moves into the Central Great Basin by mid week. These will bring periodic chances for showers and storms to the area throughout the week, though the best of these chances coming mid to late week as the deeper trough approaches the region.
1003 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will slip southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight into Saturday, with building high pressure behind the front. As a cold front begins to slip southeastward across the commonwealth overnight, lower dewpoints will begin to return to NW PA. Mid-level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of PA on Saturday. However, high pwats and low-level convergence should be enough to maintain the chance of showers and a few storms along and south of the cold front, as it continues to sag southward through the remainder of central PA. Temperatures will turn cool across the north, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the cooler spots of the NW mtns.
/EC/ Through Saturday: Broad mid/upper troughing over the eastern US will build slightly southward as we head into the weekend, with an associated cold front seeping slowly through the Mid MS Valley and into the Mid South.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Through Saturday: Broad mid/upper troughing over the eastern US will build slightly southward as we head into the weekend, with an associated cold front seeping slowly through the Mid MS Valley and into the Mid South.
An upper level high pressure ridge is predicted to build over the region during the period (deterministic output). Anticipate isolated/scattered convection (mainly over the Coastal Plains) Saturday, as a compromise between the upper ridge and copious moisture.
Comfortable and cooler conditions expected the rest of the night with temperatures falling into the 50s. The cold front has brought back west to northwest flow and has ushered in some cooler and less humid conditions with highs today and Saturday expected to just be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. The large scale upper level trough will push east of area into Saturday likely bring back large scale weak ridging across the region bringing a more stable environment overall.
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will settle south across central Illinois today bringing a few showers and storms mainly to areas along or south of I-72.
This afternoon, high pressure was located over the Central Great Basin with ridging noted just off the West Coast.
514 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Latest satellite picking up on a growing cumulus field mainly over the higher terrain across the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges in addition to portions of the Rocky Mountains in CO as a few have begun to be tall enough to return echoes on the KCYS radar. Lingering broken cloud deck across the high plains have limited early diurnal heating with KIBM, KCYS, and KSNY reaching only in the middle 70s as of latest obs. Expect highs today to be on a touch cooler with upper 80s near Chadron but low to middle 80s across the rest of the high plains in WY and NE as well as west of the Laramie Range. Lows tonight from the low 50s into the upper 50s for most.
832 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A few showers remain possible late this evening along a cold front pushing southward into southeast Illinois, but otherwise dry weather is expected through the weekend.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge returns to the area this weekend resulting in dry conditions and well above normal temperatures.
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Main change during the short term is the upper low near Hudson bay will shift off to the east. This will send the high pressure currently over SD today into the southern Great Lakes on Saturday.
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 254 PM CDT We have relatively quiet weather behind a cold front that is passing through the southern quarter of my forecast region, dropping dewpoints from previous lower 70s into mid to lower 50s F.
Otherwise, we should see little fluctuation in temperatures overnight, as the rain cooled airmass has already brought temps down into the low to mid 70s. We will start the weekend off with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing southward ahead of a weak cold front Saturday morning. Temps will be a tad cooler with the increased cloud cover and persistent rain chances with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
As the upper trough exits tonight, upper ridging will build back in. Northwest flow aloft continues to weaken and upper flow comes to be dominated by the upper high over the intermountain west. A subtle mid level trough may exist over the area early in the period, with some available mid level instability. Second, BUFKIT profiles hint that the boundary layer will remain just moist enough for surface based convection in the vicinity of this weak upper trough (through the lack of a surface boundary could be an issue with identifying a placement of any storm activity).
1018 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will slip southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight into Saturday, with building high pressure behind the front. As a cold front begins to slip southeastward across the commonwealth overnight, lower dewpoints will begin to return to NW PA. Mid-level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of PA on Saturday. However, high pwats and low-level convergence should be enough to maintain the chance of showers and a few storms along and south of the cold front, as it continues to sag southward through the remainder of central PA. Temperatures will turn cool across the north, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the cooler spots of the NW mtns.
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 As the upper trough exits tonight, upper ridging will build back in. Northwest flow aloft continues to weaken and upper flow comes to be dominated by the upper high over the intermountain west. A subtle mid level trough may exist over the area early in the period, with some available mid level instability. Second, BUFKIT profiles hint that the boundary layer will remain just moist enough for surface based convection in the vicinity of this weak upper trough (through the lack of a surface boundary could be an issue with identifying a placement of any storm activity).
The vast majority of the CWA was dry today due to unfavorable conditions for the development of showers and thunderstorms courtesy of upper level ridging. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid seventies. Saturday, mid/upper level high pressure along the Carolina coast will gradually begin weaken and slide a little farther eastward through the day. Time sections show some mid/high level clouds on Saturday which should prevent temperatures from being any warmer than Friday's highs. Expect similar temperatures with most areas in the low/mid 90s.
450 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Broad upper ridging covers the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Dakotas, and winds are light and variable. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, as the upper ridge persists and the low-level thermal ridge gradually strengthens and spreads eastward. Highs Saturday will be in the lower 90s on the plains, 70s/80s in the Black Hills.
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 (This evening through Saturday) The weak upper level ridge that has resulted in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas through the last several days, is beginning to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across the western CONUS through the next 24 hours, placing West Central Texas in north flow aloft. This afternoon and evening, an outflow boundary/weak cold front will move into the Big Country. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 90s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon hours, with the highest concentration of activity in the vicinity of the boundary. Highs on Saturday will be below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
901 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight. A lull in the wake of the intense storms is expected before convection spreads nwd from WV late tonight as the MCV advances ewd and a cold front in nwrn OH advances swd. Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are forming at this time as the wrn OH MCV approaches, with increasing coverage as a cold front impinges on the area.
A weak surface front associated with the trough over the Midwest and Midsouth should stay north of our forecast area today, but ongoing convection over southern OK/AR early this morning has kicked out an outflow boundary that may work its way eastward into our area this morning.
1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 254 PM CDT We have relatively quiet weather behind a cold front that is passing through the southern quarter of my forecast region, dropping dewpoints from previous lower 70s into mid to lower 50s F.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer through the short term period than the past two days with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Broad persistent high pressure will remain in place across the northeastern CONUS into the first half of the upcoming week while upper level flow interchanges between zonal and modest ridging. This will result in warm southerly flow advecting not only gradually warmer air each day but also more moist air, nudging up dewpoints and hence humidity levels a little bit each day.
303 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Southerly flow will slowly increase today, but humidity values will still remain on the lower side. High pressure will continue to drift east with southerly flow at the surface remaining in place and above about 10 mph most of the night.
the moisture from the showers and general decline in high pressure is what will allow for fog to build along the coast.
339 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes with a ridge over the Rockies. The trough will move to New England and a weak trough will develop over the Mississippi River valley with the ridge shifting to the western U. Quiet and warm weather is expected through mid-week with southerly flow returning to the area as ridging builds into eastern Canada.
A persistent mid to upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to loosely remain draped across parts of the Southeast as a weak upper low or inverted upper trough meanders north over the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf. Additionally, a broad trough aloft pivots across parts of the Midwest today on its way toward the East Coast through the day on Saturday.
417 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure builds in from the west bringing cooler and drier weather over the next few days. A cold front traversing through our CWA from NW to SE this morning brings one last round of showers and thunderstorms before the drier air moves in.
By this afternoon, temps will reach into the low to mid 80s under clear skies and calm conditions.
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 (This evening through Saturday) The weak upper level ridge that has resulted in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas through the last several days, is beginning to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across the western CONUS through the next 24 hours, placing West Central Texas in north flow aloft. This afternoon and evening, an outflow boundary/weak cold front will move into the Big Country. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 90s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon hours, with the highest concentration of activity in the vicinity of the boundary. Highs on Saturday will be below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
An upper level trough in Canada transporting a cool, dry air mass into the region will move off to the east as a ridge moves over the Northland. Despite an increase in moisture from the associated southerly flow, RH values will remain in the low 30 percents throughout the region due to the more greatly increasing temperatures.
247 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will again be limited in coverage today as the upper level ridge begins retreating into the Atlantic this afternoon. Synoptic situation will begin slowly changing this afternoon as the upper level ridge which has been over the area begins retreating into the Atlantic Basin. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid 90s with lows tonight again in the low to mid 70s. Saturday, mid/upper level high pressure along the Carolina coast will gradually begin weaken and slide a little farther eastward through the day.
321 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 (Issued 321 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021) Today through Sunday: High pressure over Wisconsin today will move east tonight into Sunday. The influence of the high will bring a nice period of weather to the area.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 03z surface/composite analysis shows primary cold front lying along a sharp moisture discontinuity from the lower Great Lakes into central Indiana/southern Illinois/central Missouri. Low level thermal trough axis also runs roughly north-south across Upper Michigan/Wisconsin. Upstream high pressure expected to build into Michigan this morning while dynamic portion of short wave trough moves east of the upper Lakes.
High temperatures will be a touch cooler this weekend in the presence of rain and cloud cover.