Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 (Issued 912 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020) Winds are increasing out of the south as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Cronce (Issued 322 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will continue to shift eastward from the Great Lakes Region into the New England states. Meanwhile low pressure will quickly advance from the northern plains through Lake Superior and into Canada. This will quickly shift the winds to southwesterly, which will give southern Wisconsin some gusty winds from the resultant gradient and pull warmer air into the area. By Wednesday, a cold front will move through Wisconsin. As the front passes winds will shift to northwesterly and high pressure will begin to build back into the region from the northern plains.
WV imagery indicates broad ridging aloft extending across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored near and along the Colorado border. The result of this stagnant pattern will be a continuation of the same as afternoon temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s for highs and overnight temperatures dip down into the lower to mid 50s for lows. There will be a slight increase in the lower troposphere pressure gradient today, leading to south to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, but I would not expect wind speeds to get much stronger than that.
Today, westerly winds will maintain warmer temperatures over much of Central and Southwest Montana but another weak cold front is expected keep cooler temperatures for north-central locations.
Decided to go with cooler guidance on temperatures for highs today, with some of the cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska. A weak cold front will also move across the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures slightly. An upper level ridge develops across the west, keeping the forecast area on the eastern edge of the ridge and an upper level northwest flow.
9 inches with the higher values across NW AL. Persistent cloud cover across the region to the north of Sally should keep high temperatures cooler than the past few days with highs in the low to mid 80s. Reduced PoPs for the update but kept with the higher PoPs over NW AL. The short term portion of this forecast will be dominated by Hurricane Sally, which is predicted to initially lift slowly northward into the central Gulf coast, before accelerating northeastward around the rim of a strengthening subtropical ridge positioned from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the southwestern North Atlantic.
High pressure aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the end of the week. An upper level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will bring cooler temperatures to Utah by the weekend.
As for today, we should more high clouds push north from the Hurricane, but for the most part, skies should stay mostly sunny today allowing temperatures to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s after a somewhat cooler start. Mostly clear skies should continue into tonight as the ridge holds position across the region. While some weak moisture transport is expected on Wednesday, this may only bring our dewpoints back into the lower 60s, and likely not enough for any diurnally driven convection. Thus, will go with more of partly to mostly sunny day with highs into the low to mid 80s.
441 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the region today and will continue through much of the rest of the week as an upper ridge remains over the western CONUS.
527 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Broad mid/upper level ridge dominates the western half of the CONUS early this morning. Little change expected today compared to yesterday with rather warm and dry weather with the prevailing ridge aloft. On Wednesday, the ridge aloft will retrograde to the west in response to a deepening trough over southern Canada and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This will allow a dry backdoor front to progress south and west into the CWA, resulting in cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
606 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure supplies dry conditions through Wednesday.
519 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Skies are partly cloudy across the Florida Keys this morning with only isolated showers detected by Key West radar, mainly across the Gulf side waters north and west of the Lower Keys. Temps are in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain, owing to a lack of precipitation and limited radiational cooling due to southeast winds and cloud cover.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 67 80 67 76 / 20 20 40 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 65 83 66 76 / 10 10 20 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 85 65 83 66 77 / 10 10 20 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 10 40 50.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the workweek with dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures.
628 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Low to mid-level clouds are currently streaming in from the southwest across the majority of the area out ahead of a weak upper low centered over New Mexico. At the surface, a ridge axis extends into our area from high pressure centered over the northeastern US. The area of clouds will shift eastward through the day, but will help keep temperatures mild, in the low 80s for high most areas.
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY 948 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the eastern Great will shift to the East Coast today.
However, the position of the trough axis around this time should limit winds to sub-red flag warning criteria. By Wednesday morning, the cold front (a dry system with little moisture to work with and thus no precipitation) will have passed through, and CAA will be in progress on a northerly wind.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Another summer-like day is expected today, as temperatures moderate well into the 80's in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front.
721 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the eastern Great will shift to the East Coast today.
517 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Seasonably cool temperature will moderate slightly through mid week, but expect cooler weather thereafter.
/issued 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020/ Weak mid level ridging and lacking moisture has kept our skies mostly clear this morning with just some occasional high clouds. Current temperatures this morning are generally in the 70s and will rise to the low to mid 80s by this afternoon.
1059 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Seasonably cool temperature will moderate slightly through mid week before returning this weekend with the passage of a cold front.
256 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the southwest states will continue slow warming through the middle of the week.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday, generally in the upper 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s.
716 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure directly overhead this morning will control our weather for the next couple of days.
/NEW/ /Through Early Wednesday/ Clouds and increasing dewpoints have kept temperatures a bit warmer than forecast for central and southeast zones, and morning lows have been updated to reflect these trends. The moist axis associated with the low cloud deck is expected to shift slowly west and produce a few showers primarily west of the I-35 corridor today. Slightly better rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a weak upper trough approaches from the west.
512 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Western edge of high pressure remains over lower MI today. Subsidence in the mid levels combined with remnant drier air in the low levels will limit diurnal cu. Low pressure moving across northern Lake Superior will help to strengthen S/SW flow over SE MI this afternoon. Limited moisture within the low level warm advection keeps conditions dry and clouds mainly north with the possible exception of some mid level coverage brushing the Tri Cities and northern Thumb. Filtered sunshine is still expected to help lift temperatures back into the 70s when combined with the warmer SW flow which then holds temperatures in the 50s tonight. The low level moisture supply into the front is looking better in model depictions which indicate surface dewpoint reaching the lower 60s and around 10 C at 850 mb.
517 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The broad area of high pressure which settled over the region this weekend will remain overhead through midweek according to the latest model guidance. Limited moisture beneath the high is expected to yield sunny or mostly sunny skies for most areas. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the region beneath the high.
Tranquil weather continues today as high pressure over the region will make way for a pleasant afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to climb into the lower 80s across the region with plenty of sunshine. For tonight, overnight lows drop into the lower 60s. A weakness in the upper level ridging will allow for rain chances to be introduced to the forecast for portions of the region on Wednesday.
634 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Cold front is now draped just south of Hettinger, to Bismarck, to Carrington, with surface pressure rises ongoing behind the front. This morning, a weak cold front was dropping through the forecast area, oriented southwest-northeast and extending through Dickinson to Harvey as of 830 UTC, with some increased cloud cover along the front and winds shifting to the northwest behind it. Hoping that today will be the only day where we have much smoke in the lower levels, with the highest concentrations in western North Dakota where we could see reduced visibilities. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly midweek, with a deepening upper low over the Hudson Bay, and another upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure directly overhead this morning will control our weather for the next couple of days.
Except for brief warmer temperatures on Wednesday, expect generally below normal temperatures through the week. Vertically integrated smoke from the HRRR highlights the high concentration of smoke in our upper-atmosphere being advected from the fires out west, which will continue to provide hazy skies across the fa. High temps will range from the low to mid-70s today. High pressure will be situated northeast of the region today. With southwesterly flow, temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
High pressure over the area bringing quiet weather and light winds early this morning. High pressure continuing to control our weather as hurricane Sally drifts in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
814 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Seasonably cool temperature will moderate slightly through mid week, but expect cooler weather thereafter.
Cold front has now passed through all but the far southeast portion of the CWA. Cold front is now draped just south of Hettinger, to Bismarck, to Carrington, with surface pressure rises ongoing behind the front. This morning, a weak cold front was dropping through the forecast area, oriented southwest-northeast and extending through Dickinson to Harvey as of 830 UTC, with some increased cloud cover along the front and winds shifting to the northwest behind it. Hoping that today will be the only day where we have much smoke in the lower levels, with the highest concentrations in western North Dakota where we could see reduced visibilities. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly midweek, with a deepening upper low over the Hudson Bay, and another upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
412 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Upper level ridge axis will shift westward today putting CO under north to northeasterly flow aloft.
303 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the region today and will continue through much of the rest of the week as an upper ridge remains over the western CONUS.
High pressure aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the end of the week. An upper level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will bring cooler temperatures to Utah by the weekend. High pressure oriented over the intermountain region will maintain dry and stable conditions across the forecast area today, with minimal change to temps vs.
349 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through most of the week under high pressure. A mainly dry late week cold front should return below average temperatures by the weekend. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it moves east across the region. Clouds will increase overnight as the trough and a surface cold front near the region.
205 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Weak/positively tilted upper trough will continue a slow eastward progression over the next couple of days.
A broad upper trough will amplify over central and eastern North America during the next several days. Developing northwest flow into the base of the eastern NOAM longwave trough will drive cooler Canadian air into the region the next few days.
Broad mid/upper level ridge dominates the western half of the CONUS early this morning. Little change expected today compared to yesterday with rather warm and dry weather with the prevailing ridge aloft. On Wednesday, the ridge aloft will retrograde to the west in response to a deepening trough over southern Canada and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This will allow a dry backdoor front to progress south and west into the CWA, resulting in cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
351 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will shift to the East Coast this evening.
Expect quiet conditions tonight with lows generally in the lower to mid 60s. The upper level trough currently over west Texas and eastern New Mexico begins to move eastward on Wednesday. Otherwise, it will be a little warmer with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.
With a trough of low pressure sitting over the KS/CO border for most of the day, winds east of the trough have been southerly w/ gusts at times over 20-25 mph. West of the trough, light flow to westerly at times. This will keep a southerly flow east, and weak downslope flow west of the trough in NE Colorado.
There is a very low chance that light rain may form off this trough in an environment of low CAPE and light northeasterly mean 0-6 km flow. There is a chance that showers will form off of this trough tomorrow. Kendrick Weak upper trough overhead combined with weak surface convergence/confluence and modest theta-e/instability/moisture convergence across the southern row of counties early Wednesday evening lead to thinking about precip chances, however even with the trough overhead progged soundings point to convective inhibition that may be too much to overcome.
255 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure ridging from the New England coast to the Ohio Valley tonight will keep us dry with a very light northeast breeze and scattered high clouds. Lows will range from the mid 50s in southern Indiana closer the the axis of the ridge to the lower 60s in southern Kentucky. On Wednesday the high will slip eastward as TC Sally stays well to our south in southern Alabama. We may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow as thicknesses increase slightly and the surface conditions continue to dry, though cloud cover may dampen that somewhat.
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure directly overhead this morning will control our weather for the next couple of days.
106 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will shift to the East Coast by evening.
Mid and high clouds will stream over the region downstream from a weak trough aloft. Surface ridging extends from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic west and southwest to the central and southern Plains.
201 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The persistent area of high pressure will remain across the forecast area across the four corners region through Wednesday. Most of the forecast area will continue to have a weak northwest flow in the lower levels with borderline elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected through Wednesday afternoon.
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A dry cold front will continue its slow approach from the northwest this evening, moving atop the WFO MPX coverage area overnight through the first half of Wednesday, moving into IA/IL by Wednesday evening.
301 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 (Issued 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Southwest flow will continue as low pressure moves across Ontario. Temperatures will be warm with breezy southwest winds, before a cold front moves through midday.
Similar conditions will continue through the next several days as high pressure will remain overhead with southwesterly flow aloft continuing to transport smoke into the region.
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad area of high pressure located over the southwestern CONUS. Low amplitude ridging extended north into the northern Rockies of Montana. West of the ridge, low pressure was around 800 miles off the coast of Oregon with a trough extending south into the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure has pushed into western Nebraska this afternoon with a cool front draped across central South Dakota. A weak cold front will push into the forecast area overnight. Behind the front Wednesday, highs will be noticeably cooler with readings in the mid 70s in the north to lower 80s in the southwest. Highs were trended toward the cooler MET guidance tomorrow, as hazy skies will continue.
415 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in place throughout the short term across Kentucky, with lower heights located well to our north. Temperatures and humidity will be higher than that of today, with highs forecasted in the low 80s.
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Low to mid-level clouds are currently streaming in from the southwest across the majority of the area out ahead of a weak upper low centered over New Mexico. At the surface, a ridge axis extends into our area from high pressure centered over the northeastern US. The area of clouds will shift eastward through the day, but will help keep temperatures mild, in the low 80s for high most areas.
With the help of weak high pressure northeast of the Bahamas and a light easterly component to our low-mid level flow, the drier mid-level air to our east will continue to slowly creep in. The Pulley Ridge buoy in the Southeast Gulf and the Satan Shoal buoy southwest of Sand Key are respectively observing 5- and 3-foot seas. A weak bubble of high pressure will sit just northeast of the Bahamas through this afternoon, while Hurricane Sally affects the northern Gulf Coast.
A cold front extended from far northeast Minnesota through central South Dakota and into Colorado. This boundary will drop southeast and through the state on Wednesday as a closed low settles south through Hudson's Bay and will shift the upper flow to northwesterly.
Northern stream trough will dig into the region starting Wednesday night bringing a pronounced cold front with it.
Mid and high level clouds will persist across south Texas through the period as the weak mid level trough drifts slowly west across the Brush Country. Visible satellite imagery shows a swirl in the mid level clouds over Duval County with mid level trough extending from north-northeast into the northern Brush Country to south-southwest near Falcon Lake. This mid level trough axis should continue to drift west today.
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A large area of high pressure directly overhead will maintain control our weather for the next couple of days with nearly cloud-free air and light wind.
401 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in place throughout the short term across Kentucky, with lower heights located well to our north. Temperatures and humidity will be higher than that of today, with highs forecasted in the low 80s.
The main focus of the short-term forecast period is a weak cold front that is currently draped across central South Dakota and will be passing through eastern Nebraska tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. The highest values of near-surface smoke will be mainly in central Nebraska westward.
Aside from a weak midlevel low across west TX, the vast majority of the southern US remains beneath midlevel ridging. Weak WAA has allowed temperatures to warm a few degrees from yesterday afternoon with temperatures in the low 80s area-wide. Current dew point readings suggest crossover temperatures will be in the low 60s across much of the area. Afternoon highs will be a degree or two warmer than today with highs in the low to middle 80s.
924 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the southwest states will continue the warming trend through the middle of the week.
1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The broad area of high pressure which settled over the region this weekend will remain overhead through midweek according to the latest model guidance. Limited moisture beneath the high is expected to yield sunny or mostly sunny skies for most areas. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the region beneath the high.
The warmest days will be during the latter half of the week with high temperatures mainly topping out between 106-109 degrees across the lower deserts. Dry conditions are expected with only a few showers possible across the high terrain today before rain chances completely come to an end starting Wednesday.
A warm/dry pattern continues throughout the period as broad ridging aloft remains in control across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. An extremely weak and disorganized flow aloft combined with very little instability across the high plains will keep precip chances out of western Kansas through late Wednesday afternoon.
Lows will be slightly warmer than the past few nights, but still quite comfortable in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop southward into northern Missouri by late afternoon and across the remainder of the area Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower 80s The front will clear the area Wednesday evening with any remaining rain chances pushing east of the area.
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A quasi-rex pattern is in place with high pressure over the northern Great Basin and broad low pressure extending from the Southern Plains into the Desert SW. With the high overhead shower activity will wane tomorrow afternoon. There remains just enough orographic forcing to keep moderate cumulus forming over the higher ridgetops.
Visible satellite imagery shows a swirl in the mid level clouds over Duval County with mid level trough extending from north-northeast into the northern Brush Country to south-southwest near Falcon Lake. This mid level trough axis should continue to drift west today.
Tonight, a secondary cold front will drop south from Canada and will increase cloud cover a bit across the north and maybe central late tonight into Wednesday morning before dissipating as the center of the high moves overhead. Stuck with our guidance for lows tonight and daytime highs Wednesday which were both a bit cooler than previous guidance.
104 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Seasonably cool temperature will moderate slightly through mid week before returning this weekend with the passage of a cold front.
320 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Few impacts in the short term with high pressure building into the area over the next 24 hours. With the passage of a secondary cold front tomorrow morning will see better mixing and the HRRR does indicate the integrated smoke to be pushed south of the area tomorrow. Temps tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s as 925mb drop from 15 to 20C this afternoon to 5 to 10C tomorrow. A dip in the jet stream allows CAA to occur until the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler. NW flow will be present until a low pressure system aloft moves to our north, changing flow in the northern plains to be from the southwest and west through the period.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 81 67 76 66 / 20 40 70 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 84 66 76 64 / 10 20 60 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 63 85 66 77 64 / 10 20 50 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 62 76 62 / 0 10 40 50 60.