Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs will range from the lower 40s over south central Lower Michigan to the lower 50s into west central Indiana. Temperatures should begin rising overnight, with all temperatures rising above freezing before precipitation begins. Therefore, no travel issues are expected with temperatures staying above freezing. No freezing rain, sleet or snow is expected.
Upper level ridging over the region will keep temperatures well above normal and mostly clear skies south of Fresno County through Monday. High clouds are expected from time to time as a cold front remains stationary to our north and will dissipate by Monday.
156 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 228 PM CDT No real big concerns through the period as high pressure to the west is expected to build overhead later tonight into Sunday. Clearing skies still anticipated into Sunday, while warmer air mass advects into the region. As high pressure shifts to the east during the day Sunday, southerly winds will pick up while temps rise into the 50s. This will assist in keeping temps cooler in the 40s for locations near the lake. The low's cold front will slide across the region Monday, and precip is expected ahead of the front.
119 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Crossing low pressure will generate some light rain and snow through early morning. More showers can be expected with a Monday cold front. Scattered light rain and snow showers through the night as an upper low continues to transition east over the forecast area. Model soundings indicate potential for light freezing drizzle in the ridges, so have maintained mention in the forecast for elevations above 2kft. Activity will diminish through the morning under increasing subsidence as high pressure builds back in briefly. Dry weather continues Sunday night as the ridge crosses.
This front will favor a more organized precipitation event, as well as aiding in gusty winds for exposed ridgetops and coastal headlands.
452 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Dry conditions will prevail until the next cold front crosses the region Monday afternoon and overnight. Building high pressure will quickly diminish any ongoing light drizzle or snow early this morning with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day as the upper ridge axis transitions over the forecast area. Sunday night will remain dry as the ridge continues to slide east. Rain will be possible sunday afternoon and into the evening as the next cold front quickly crosses the region.
201 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Low pressure moves south and east of the area tonight and Sunday. High pressure returns late Sunday remains in control through Monday.
Clouds will erode by the afternoon as an upper level low pressure system moves farther away.
The aforementioned low will bring a cold front through the western Great Lakes tonight, with rain showers developing ahead of the cold front across north central and central Wisconsin during the afternoon hours, sweeping east this evening and into the overnight hours. The weak forcing and instability associated with this cold front will keep thunder chances to the south of the cwa for this system. Highs today ahead of the front are expected to range from the middle to upper 40s across the north, with highs in the lower 50s across the south. Highs on Monday behind the weak cold front will be similar to today, signaling the weak nature of the aforementioned cold front.
249 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Quiet night tonight with northwest flow aloft settling in and the upper trough trying to hold on to the eastern CONUS. The trough should slide east into the Atlantic later today, and upper ridging will try to build in today as well. Mainly have highs in the mid to upper 50s, but the low 60s are not out of the question with spring approaching and the current sun angle.
Warm front will move through the area tonight. Warm front will move across the area tonight with warmer lows expected, especially south and west. A warm front across eastern Montana this afternoon will propagate east across North Dakota tonight and occlude. A mild overnight is favored tonight given the warm airmass and increased mixing with the passage of the aforementioned front with widespread lows above freezing.
235 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure will build into our region from the west today and tonight, then linger over the area Monday.
318 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 The weather pattern for the next several days will be dominated by an upper level ridge over the Central CONUS, meaning most of this week will be warm and precipitation-free.
636 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Low pressure moves off the east coast today. High pressure crosses tonight. A cold front crosses Monday night.
133 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 An upper trough and cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure along with cooler and drier air will then return through Monday.
The limiting factor for storm development late tonight will be the lack of moisture above the lower to mid-levels, which would translate to perhaps some drizzle instead, but as moist, WAA ramps up tomorrow, could see slightly better chances late tomorrow night.
459 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 The cold front has moved offshore and will continue moving away from the region today allowing high pressure to build in. High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain over the region through Monday night.
Temperatures remain tricky for today, with the actual front still back in Tennessee and expected to push into the state by early evening as upper trough transitions eastward. High pressure will build into the region behind the front, and expect winds to remain high due to the tight pressure gradient.
507 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Patchy fog will be possible along and south of the cold front as it tracks across the south half of the ArkLaMiss this morning. Today through Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed an upper trough over the Great Lakes region dragging a cold front slowly through the region around the interstate 20 corridor. The cold front should clear the forecast area by after sunrise along with the patchy fog. A warm frontal boundary will come back to the western part of the forecast area by early this evening. The warm frontal boundary will extend from the northwest delta to southeast Mississippi by early Monday.
Increased cloudiness and cooler temperatures prevailed today.
419 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Canadian high pressure and northwest flow aloft will bring dry and stable conditions to the CWA through tonight. As the high pressure ridge drifts over the CWA tonight, winds will diminish rapidly after sunset. The northern stream is very progressive during this period, with an amplified trough pattern digging deep into the higher latitudes.
Skies will slowly clear on Sunday with highs rebounding into the middle 40s over south central Lower Michigan to the lower 50s into west central Indiana. Upper low exiting the region this afternoon but several short waves and vorticity maxima moving southeast in its wake and each generating light showers over the region. Clouds to slowly erode Sunday afternoon but remain slower than most guidance until low level ridge and stronger warm air advection moves in. Warmer temps expected Monday with return flow but this will also increase moisture flux across the region with rain likely.
508 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Taking a look at the big picture this morning, a deep low was exiting off the east coast near DE/NJ with a new trough developing out in the Pacific well west of the CA coast. In between, a ridge somewhat reminiscent of summertime at a strength of 587 dam was centered over the Plains. A weak disturbance was passing under this ridge this morning, moving from the TX/NM border into the TX Panhandle.
A trough will progress southward down the Florida peninsula this morning and pass through the Florida Keys either this afternoon or tonight.
422 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Today: Latest surface analysis showed a cold front draped east to west along the SE CONUS from the Carolinas to northern Louisiana. Models prog the aforementioned cold front to sweep southward this morning, reaching south Florida by this afternoon. Dry air will continue to advect in from the north this afternoon, dropping RH values to the upper 30s in Glades and Hendry counties with values in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Tonight into Monday, brisk north northeast winds will act to advect in a cooler airmass. The onshore component of the winds will limit Mondays maximum temperatures to the lower 70s along the east coast metro and mid to upper 70s further west. However, as the week progresses, both the GFS and ECMWF begin to build high pressure in from the west.
Elsewhere across the lower elevations of southeast CO conditions will be near critical, but winds will come up just shy of meeting the wind gust criteria. For tonight, with the ridge overhead expect little in the way of clouds tonight with unseasonably warm temps. Lows will only get into the 40s and 50s on the plains and 20s and 30s across the higher terrain. Record warm temps will be possible (likely?) tomorrow across the region as the ridge moves to the east and the westerly low level gradient picks up a bit over the area. An upper-level ridge remains intact, keeping temperatures above average for this time of year with lows Monday morning ranging the upper 30s to mid-40s for the plains and below freezing for the mountains and high valleys.
The closed upper low over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to track southeast through the day. A deep northerly flow with 850 mb cold advection will result in cooler temperatures today, with highs in the 50s in most spots. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s, with some Valley locations potentially falling below freezing.
349 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure will continue to build over the Mid South both at the surface and aloft through Monday as a large upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic states pushes east. Dry and warmer weather can be expected with highs today ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s and into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday.
Today through Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed an upper trough over the Great Lakes region dragging a cold front slowly through the region around the interstate 20 corridor. The cold front should clear the forecast area by after sunrise along with the patchy fog. A warm frontal boundary will come back to the western part of the forecast area by early this evening. The warm frontal boundary will extend from the northwest delta to southeast Mississippi by early Monday.
The lowest relative humidities do not appear to be collocated with the strongest winds, so will hold off for now on any fire weather headlines. A cold front will work its way in Monday with cooler temperatures following.
High pressure will build over the area today and tonight, before a cold front crosses the area Monday night. Strong high pressure then builds across the region during the middle to latter part of the week. Over the next few hours, we'll see rain/snow line shift southward as column continues to cool down beneath upper low. Upper low and trof axis will shift east later today with precip ending by 15Z if not sooner. High pressure then builds overhead tonight with clearing expected by daybreak Monday. Chilly with temps in the low 30s east and upper 20s west.
Clouds were thinning and breaking up as the cold front sags south into the afternoon over AR. Tonight Through Monday Night The cold front will continue to sag south, setting up a mostly clear and cool night. Lows will be from the lower 40s east, to the lower 50s west. Dry with mostly sunny skies on Sunday as the upper high pressure ridge builds more into the region. Highs will reach the 70s again with some around 80 to the low 80s possible.
A short wave preceding an approaching cold front will produce occasional clouds during the remainder of the overnite hours but no measurable pcp expected as moisture will be limited. A Canadian high building into the area behind the front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass to the area on occasionally breezy north to northeast winds. The gradient relaxes inland tonight as the high builds in across the western Carolinas which sets up ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Areas along the St Johns River and coast will be around 10 degrees warmer due to a NNE breeze off the warmer waters. High pressure moves overhead and then out into the Atlantic.
135 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure will build into our region from the west today and tonight, then linger over the area Monday.
555 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 The cold front has moved offshore and will continue moving away from the region today allowing high pressure to build in. High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain over the region through Monday night.
Moist southwest flow will continue through the short term, even as a weak ridge axis moves through late tonight. A cold front is located roughly from Adams County southwest to southeast Baker County to near Burns. QPF totals in the short term range from around a tenth of an inch in the lower elevations of the Snake River Plain, to between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch in the mountains. The best chance for thunderstorms appears to be Monday after the weak ridge axis moves north.
The ridge that has been over the Great Basin is now centered over the High Plains. Lows will be warmer than last night due to the moisture advection. Behind the trough winds will turn to the northwest. The lower dew points coming in from the west and record/near record highs may lead to critical fire weather conditions.
338 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Unseasonably warm weather expected over the next couple of days as strong upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains.
525 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure will build in today and last into Monday. A moisture-starved cold front will pass through Monday night, making for a cool mid-week. Snow diminishing over the area as the upper low fills a little and moves to the SE. An additional inch of snow may stick on the higher elevations of the SC counties. The lower elevations are just a little milder, but could have something stick on the grassy areas and car tops. While some clouds may linger in the higher elevations early, clearing should occur everywhere. There could be a little mix with snow in the far north but the time of day and previously above freezing temps argue against any accums if snow does occur.
151 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Upper level low drops southeast to the mid Atlantic coast early this morning. High pressure crosses tonight.
Temperatures this afternoon range from the lower 40s across southern IN to the mid 50s across south central KY. However, with cloud cover and winds gusting 25-30 mph at times, it will feel cooler. Winds will relax overnight as the upper level low over the Ohio Valley shifts to the south and east. Lows tonight will drop to around the freezing mark. Lows will be warmer, only dipping into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Satellite still shows some cyclone related lower clouds just to our north/east, east of the ridge, and then some warm advection mid decks, just to our west, west of the ridge. This allows the lower trop column to warm and moisten, sufficiently so to destabilize and introduce a chance of thunder by early Monday morning, as a zonal almost northwest flow action aloft shoots some energy over the frontal boundary that sets up to our north/west.
1203 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 228 PM CDT No real big concerns through the period as high pressure to the west is expected to build overhead later tonight into Sunday. Clearing skies still anticipated into Sunday, while warmer air mass advects into the region. As high pressure shifts to the east during the day Sunday, southerly winds will pick up while temps rise into the 50s. This will assist in keeping temps cooler in the 40s for locations near the lake. The low's cold front will slide across the region Monday, and precip is expected ahead of the front.
Still looks too dry in the low and mid levels for any precipitation. Cooler temperatures in the wake of a backdoor cold front that will move slowly westward across the plains east of the mountains. Coolest temperatures in the cooler air from Lusk to Chadron, though temperatures will still be well above normal.
The high will remain in place but weaken slightly. The Pac NW trof will head into Canada tonight into tomorrow. Surface: A SW-NE oriented sfc trof bisected KS/Neb. with a warm front developing and lifting N and E into SD/IA. Peak Dwpts Today: Aurora 81F Kearney 79F York 79F Grand Island 77F Ord 77F What compounded these dwpts was winds were much lighter/calm near the sfc trof. Forcing is on the low end of the mesoscale and weak. Aloft: Zonal flow over the Nrn USA will gradually transition to a slight Wrn ridge/Ern trof. 2) Return much cooler (actually near normal) temps. Although there may be a hit or miss storm during the daytime hours and also into tonight as a cold front moves through, chances and timing are not clear cut and have not included in the tafs just yet.
Otherwise, another day of above normal temperatures is taking shape with plenty of mid-afternoon readings already in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees.
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 An area of high pressure aloft will expand from the central U. An expansive area of high pressure aloft centered over the central/southern plains will shunt the main band of westerlies near or north of the Canadian border.
Most global models are not handling the Nebraska convection well, if they recognize it at all, but some of the high-resolution short-term models like the HRRR have a much better handle on it and continue to move it eastward, albeit with decreasing intensity, across our area through the morning hours to around midday.
A cold front moving into the northwest Sandhills will bring strong heating ahead of the front. Deep layer shear is not forecast to be very strong, ranging up to about 25 knots near the cold front where storms are most likely to occur. There could be some post frontal elevated showers or thunderstorms overnight back across the western counties as the upper trough exits the region. Lows tonight behind the front will be cooler from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Since central Nebraska will be north of the front on Sunday, temperatures will remain on the cooler side (highs in the mid to upper 80s).
A cold front will move across the CWA this afternoon, reaching the RRV around mid afternoon and then into west central MN in the early evening. Heavy rainshowers are also expected with storms in this region with the high PWAT values.
Afternoon temperatures expected to top 90 degrees across much of the lowlands today. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, heat indices will climb above 100 degrees. Guidance suggest that a cold front will stall north of the area on Sunday before lifting north as a warm front later Sunday night.
Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight. The warm front and CAPE/moisture gradient to our south will begin to surge northward Saturday in advance of the next upstream wave to affect the region through Sunday morning. In addition, large precipitable water values will be increasingly advected into an active warm frontal zone as the day progresses, and this should result in a somewhat robust heavy rain threat across the southern half of the Duluth CWA. We have issued a flash flood watch for all areas roughly along and south of the highway 2 corridor from noon tomorrow through early Sunday morning, focusing on the area along and just north of the retreating surface warm front.
Today Through Sunday Night Upper trof moving across northern MT eastward with cold front coming into eastern MT. Warm front from low in southeastern MT across southern SD. As the trof moves toward the upper Great Lakes, a weak short wave crossing on the northwest flow may produce some precipitation Sunday. Temperatures will be much cooler today.
Area remains on the eastern side of an upper level ridge, but there is some weakening across the CWA as an upper low nears the eastern coast of Florida this evening. The seabreeze will remain the main driving force behind convection today and given this have confined the higher PoP chances across Florida and portions of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Upper level ridge weakening as a wave moves across southern Canada.
Farther south, a bit more moisture in the column combined with some cumulus development and more insolation being eaten up by latent heating should keep temperatures from running up much above the lower 90s. However, dewpoints will remain elevated throughout the day and likely into the lower 70s during maximum heating. Only maintaining a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms during the evening as the ridge axis shifts east and flattens due to a weak wave passing through the southern Great Lakes. This moisture, combined with hot temperatures, will again have heat indices in the mid to upper 90s for most locations west of the Ridges.
The main question driving the location of the convection will be the position of the warm front. The extra cloud cover over the area today along with the warm front to our south will keep temperatures cooler today, with highs expected to get into the lower 80s north to the mid 80s south.
A departing low pressure system will leave in its wake a chance of a few thunderstorms over the Glacier Park region today, along with breezy afternoon winds for most areas, otherwise it will be a warm and dry day. High pressure ridging builds in Sunday for further warming under mostly sunny skies allowing high temperatures to return to seasonable levels. North-central Idaho valleys, however will see much warmer temperatures, where some locations could see 100 degrees by midweek.
A slight cool down expected for Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten and a cold front approaches from the north.
The upper level pattern remains very similar today with the region still on the eastern side of an expansive upper ridge centered over the southwest states into the Southern Plains. This results in the highest precip waters (over 2 inches) shifting west of the local area today which suggests that overall coverage of storms will be lower compared to the past couple of days. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices generally in the 100-106 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. A few storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Cold front will work its way across Nebraska through the day. Instability should be favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm humid airmass south of front/trough.
700 mb temps of +14 didn't pose a problem for convection maintenance ydy morning, therefore there is no reason why slightly cooler H7 temps today would pose much of an impediment to iso-sct SHRA/TSRA today.
Current moisture levels remain on the low side with PWATS around 1. 25 inches while warmer than normal conditions aloft continue to keep monsoon activity somewhat dampened.
Light E/SE flow will continue for the next several days as high pressure continues to ridge across the state.
East-southeast winds with some gusts upwards the low-20s knots range this afternoon. Concur with deterministic output that the upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary yet with a gradual weakness in the 500mb heights over the CWA/MSA during the period. Expect diurnal/nocturnal convection during the period yet mainly isolated coverage when considering the upper ridge.
Although we continue to slowly bake out the low level moisture, still expect to see afternoon heat indices rise near or slightly above 105 degrees with actual air temps only a few degrees below these readings.
A strong upper level ridge continues across the Central U. 0 inches with lower values across SW VA and the higher values across the Souther Valley.