Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures ranged from the 50s in the north and south with warmer 60s sandwiched in the middle. Lift will increase tonight and tomorrow as the approaching disturbance/upper low along the Front Range slides into the Lower Tennessee Valley by tomorrow night. This expected complex will produce the brunt of the rainfall in the southern counties along a warm front. Then tomorrow a distinct dry slot will move into the south while a new precipitation shield associated with the upper level low swings through the northern counties.
430 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast NE, with cold front well south and east of the area. Upper level analysis shows compact upper low now over far north central NE, moving southeastward.
A warmer blanket of clouds is keeping temps higher southwest of Madison.
1053 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 A cold front will bring strong and gusty north winds overnight. Kept the low precipitation chances for north central and central Oklahoma in place, overall, but did make some minor adjustments, pulling them back to the east a touch. /issued 648 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ Lower clouds just above MVFR conditions are expected to move south out of central Oklahoma this evening followed by a cold front that will bring strong and gusty north winds overnight. A cold front will accompany it.
This trough will be replaced by stout surface ridging tonight through Sunday following a swift cold frontal passage tonight ahead of NE winds of 20 to 30 mph. The best shot for some light rain may actually unfold later Sunday afternoon with the arrival of a shearing/decaying mid- level trough. However, further drying of the lower levels by this time could result in this scenario being all virga. Even accounting for the overly moist model soundings, thermal profiles would still support some snowflakes at times given 90% or more of the column residing below freezing, but mild 2-meter temps should keep accumulations nil.
1155 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure advancing into Lower Michigan will scour the remaining VFR stratocu from SE Michigan during the night. The high will remain in control through the day and mainly provide a light northerly wind. Temperatures remain in the low 30s this afternoon, where they will likely stay owing to mostly cloudy to overcast boundary layer cloud cover. The exception is upper 30s noted downstream of the glacial ridge, providing a glimpse into the high temperature potential for this mid-March airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures around -12C. Shear max on full disk WV imagery over Nunavut is already amplifying as it is steered southeast by the longwave ridge anchored over western North America.
While winds will back to the northwest behind the frontal passage, the increasing cloud cover will limit radiational cooling overnight and, thus, should help to keep low temperatures in the low/mid 30s. By Sunday night, the region will be under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough shifts into the eastern U. At the surface, high pressure from over the Dakotas will gradually progress southward into the central U.
628 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather continues this weekend under high pressure.
A weak boundary is currently just south of the forecast area, with showers brushing the lower tier of counties. A low pressure system will lift into the MS Valley on Sunday and into the TN Valley by Sunday evening.
252 PM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 A weak low pressure system moving through California will tap a very moist subtropical air mass to bring periods of rain through tonight, diminishing Sunday morning.
Models consistent with a low pressure area developing on this boundary over the lower MS River Valley overnight. Meanwhile as this low tracks eastward on Sunday. high pressure wedges into north GA. Best instability expected to remain over western and central GA mainly Sunday afternoon ahead of the low and around the vicinity of the wedge boundary.
602 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will push into Pennsylvania tonight and Sunday.
A bit tough to forecast as northwest winds do increase overnight after the inverted trough passage, and the models show the BR-type fog even in the area of 10 knots or so of wind. After whatever there may be for morning fog and flurries/light snow over the east, it appears to be a quiet day on Sunday as high pressure begins building in.
700 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Added some freezing drizzle in the far western/southwestern zones for tonight. However, think that chances of any freezing drizzle are pretty low, so kept everything as snow for now. Considering there was some fog in that area while the trough was over central ND last night, can't rule out some patchy fog formation. High pressure will be building into the area with northwesterly winds. Think that clouds will keep the eastern counties from seeing their warm spots in the trees, allowing more uniform high temperatures from the lower to mid 30s. Late in the period some cooler air and precipitation are expected.
813 PM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 A weak low pressure trough will move through California tonight with areas of light to moderate rain, diminishing Sunday morning.
For the first half of the week a mid/upper level trough will setup over the eastern U. then move out into the Atlantic Ocean late in the week with some weak ridging building over the Gulf of Mexico.
528 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 A strong PV anomaly located over wrn SD will help push a cold front south across the forecast area late this afternoon or early this evening. Cooler drier air will be the main story overnight into Sun, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure drops south over the plains for Sunday. Ketcham A mid/upper ridge is progged to build across the Central plains toward the middle to the end of the week bringing a warming trend with rising temperatures. A return to breezy south winds from a developing lee side trough and a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing and elevated fire weather concerns for Wed and especially Thu. A cold front will be moving through the region during the evening hours tonight.
248 PM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 Pacific low pressure moving towards the southern California coast, with a good supply of moisture stretching west, will bring rain across the region late this afternoon this evening.
Gusty northerly winds had developed across the plains behind today's cold front. Sunday will feature lighter winds as high pressure builds across the Northern and Central High Plains. There are some high clouds advertised to spread east, but that will be difficult as they run into the developing upper level ridge over Colorado.
Slight chances will be north of I-40 until later in the morning on Sunday and into the afternoon as the upper low inches closer to the mid state.
Kept the low precipitation chances for north central and central Oklahoma in place, overall, but did make some minor adjustments, pulling them back to the east a touch. /issued 648 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ Lower clouds just above MVFR conditions are expected to move south out of central Oklahoma this evening followed by a cold front that will bring strong and gusty north winds overnight. A cold front will accompany it.
Forecast soundings suggest that lower levels will gradually saturate through the evening especially north and east of Omaha as the upper low moves into eastern Nebraska and cold air deepens.
Conditions then dry out, with fair weather as weak high pressure pushes into the region on Sunday. Highest at the highest elevations and on already snow covered areas. Roads shouldn't be much affected except for any liquid on them freezing as temperatures fall back into the 20s. A ridge of high pressure at the surface with rising heights aloft will be over the area Sunday and Sunday night with dry weather. High temperatures a tad warmer but still mostly mid and upper 30s. Sunday night cooler with some clearing.
/Issued 132 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ A cold front continues to push south across the central plains this afternoon. The winds will pick up behind this front tonight as an upper level short wave trough located over northwest Nebraska/southwest South Dakota dives southeast which will help drive the front southward. On Sunday, another short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the west. A northwest flow aloft will continue until an upper level ridge pushes onto the plains by mid week.
The storm threat will shift southeast later tonight as the upper wave and cold front pushes into the region. The cold front will clear the area late tonight, with a breezy and chilly Sunday on tap. Surface ridging conditions will persist through around mid-week, with seasonally cool weather prevailing.
959 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge over southern ALTA with an upper level jet moving south along the the east side of the ridge. Added some freezing drizzle in the far western/southwestern zones for tonight. However, think that chances of any freezing drizzle are pretty low, so kept everything as snow for now. Considering there was some fog in that area while the trough was over central ND last night, can't rule out some patchy fog formation. High pressure will be building into the area with northwesterly winds. Think that clouds will keep the eastern counties from seeing their warm spots in the trees, allowing more uniform high temperatures from the lower to mid 30s. Late in the period some cooler air and precipitation are expected.
An area of low pressure will track along this feature.
High pressure advancing across the northern to central Great Lakes overnight will displace any remaining clouds leaving scattered coverage of high clouds and light north to light and variable wind. The high will remain in control Sunday and mainly provide a light northerly wind with scattered to broken coverage of stratocu once again with a boost from daytime heating. Temperatures remain in the low 30s this afternoon, where they will likely stay owing to mostly cloudy to overcast boundary layer cloud cover. The exception is upper 30s noted downstream of the glacial ridge, providing a glimpse into the high temperature potential for this mid-March airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures around -12C. Shear max on full disk WV imagery over Nunavut is already amplifying as it is steered southeast by the longwave ridge anchored over western North America.
a cold front. Have delayed mention of VCTS a couple of hours A cold front will move South across the Four State Region helping to continue convection into the early to mid morning Sunday, when ceilings will return to MVFR and convection will end as the boundary shift South.
Strong ridging aloft will develop across the Great Basin for the first half of the week.
1009 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures ranged from the 50s in the north and south with warmer 60s sandwiched in the middle. Lift will increase tonight and tomorrow as the approaching disturbance/upper low along the Front Range slides into the Lower Tennessee Valley by tomorrow night. This expected complex will produce the brunt of the rainfall in the southern counties along a warm front. Then tomorrow a distinct dry slot will move into the south while a new precipitation shield associated with the upper level low swings through the northern counties.
Sharpening warm frontal boundary over the northern portions looks to briefly push north during the evening, then come back south as upper support moves in.
Will maintain gust potential of 40 mph across our southwest, but weaken those winds gradually overnight as high pressure settles over the western half of the forecast area. Winds are noticeably weaker on Sunday, but CAA from the high plains will limit highs Sunday in the 30s and 40s.
Most of the precipitation has ended, besides very light freezing drizzle being reported. Also, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going until 6 PM due to icy roads and very light snow, mainly bridges and overpasses icy. May see some partly sunny skies by Monday afternoon, which would help make it feel a little warmer.
Despite winds becoming light and nearly calm overnight, increasing dew points (ahead of the incoming cold front) will create a warmer night/morning (+3 to 5 degrees) than what was observed this past morning. On New Years Day, expect skies to become progressively cloudier out of the northwest as a strong cold front surges down the Florida Peninsula, knocking on our doorstep Monday night.
Widespread cloud cover has kept temps and also wind chill values a little warmer than previously thought. Still expect some of the coldest air of the season, to continue to settle across the area tonight into Monday as the strong arctic high pressure over nrn Neb builds south across the region. Latest model runs suggest temps are coming in a tad warmer than previous forecasts suggested, which when its this cold, will have big impacts on wind chills. Ketcham The warming trend looks to continue for the end of the week into the weekend, as the large trough over the ern US shifts further east of the area with the medium range models showing a lee side trough developing by Fri night, which would shift the surface winds around to the south for a welcome warmup.
High pressure will build offshore today then drift towards the coast tonight ending up over Western Washington on Monday.
320 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Arctic high pressure will slowly build south across the northern Plains tonight and then the Corn Belt region on Monday. With the high pressure still well off to the north, a persistent north wind will continue. High temperatures on Monday will likely not warm out of the single digits across central Missouri, with highs only in the lower to perhaps middle teens across far southern Missouri. If there is any good news, wind speeds will start to decrease in the afternoon as that high pressure continues to approach from the north.
An upper level ridge is building offshore this morning with dry northwest flow aloft over eastern WA and OR. Subsidence from the ridge is providing mostly clear skies and light winds.
The high will settle right over Nebraska tonight, ensuring winds to stay light and clouds continue to lift/clear over the Sandhills. Forecast soundings and isentropic analysis indicate a possible mid-level (around H7) warm front pushing into southwest Neb. SREF keeps the higher probability of low cigs (under 3kft) in the panhandle. For Monday, return flow takes over as the high pushes east of the area, but there is little in terms of temperature recovery.
Upper level analysis shows low over southern Hudson Bay, with broad trough covering central and eastern portions of Canada and the US. A ridge lies along the Pacific coast with strong northwest flow from the Northern Rockies through the Central Plains. The bitter cold will continue into the beginning of the New Year, though improving conditions can be expected after New Years Day as the ridge over the west coast slowly moves east and brings some milder air, especially toward the second half of the week. For tonight, skies will become mainly clear with relatively light winds as the high slowly moves southeast across the Dakotas. The mildest temps early this week will be across northeast WY and the Black Hills as warmer air initially impacts the higher elevations of the area.
1239 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Intense low pressure will remain over the Maritimes today and Monday.
Radar data and surface observations indicate decreasing light snow and freezing drizzle reports past couple hours.
Associated trough axis will be through our area by late Monday. Closer to the surface a massive arctic high pressure system will be dropping out of Canada and into the northern plains by late Monday, eventually nosing its way into the Ohio Valley. A few locations in the highest terrain to our southeast along the Virginia state line and in our Bluegrass counties will even approach wind chill advisory criteria. A series of ridges of high pressure will be the primary weather makers in the extended across eastern Kentucky.
Temperatures still expected to plunge quickly after sunset this evening with freezing conditions beginning across east Texas and central Louisiana as early as 6 PM. Temperatures Monday will struggle to rise above freezing across central Louisiana and will only be a couple degrees above freezing elsewhere.
Believe with cloud coverage transversing the mid state region this afternoon, current temps are generally likely to be the high temps for this afternoon.
Look for lows on either side of 0 with the lowest wind chills mostly in the -5 to -10 range.
833 AM PST Sun Dec 31 2017 High pressure aloft will maintain fair and mild weather this week, with periods of high clouds, as areas of low clouds and fog visit the coastal areas each night.
Temperatures areawide ranging from the upper 20s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 40s across deep east Texas. Temperatures tonight to fall into the mid to upper teens across most of the region while deep east Texas will remain slightly warmer in the lower 20s. Cold and dry arctic high pressure to remain established across the region through midweek with temperatures on Monday forecast to approach the freezing point of 32 degrees. However, many locations will remain below freezing before falling back into the teens on Monday night.
1234 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Intense low pressure will remain over the Maritimes today and Monday.
Temperatures have been falling all day across the Low Rolling Plains and the Permian Basin. Even though there could be a few snow flurries this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin no accumulation is expected. and Terrell counties for tonight since freezing drizzle is not expected. There could be freezing drizzle or light freezing rain/sleet due to upslope flow and an upper level speed max moving across northern Mexico. The GFS and NAM are more bullish than the ECMWF or what can be gleaned from the high- res RAP13 and HRRR models. Have expanded the Wind Chill Advisory to our northern tier of counties (The Low Rolling Plains and the Northern Permian Basin) where wind chills could drop to 5 to 10 below zero.
Arctic high pressure will make a slow transition across the area through Monday.
This will need to be monitored as it could inhibit radiational cooling for a period overnight, perhaps keeping temps slightly warmer than anticipated.
High pressure aloft will gradually strengthen across the region through the middle of the week. High pressure is building over the Great Basin this morning, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under a west to northwest flow on the front side of it. The airmass over northern Utah is a bit cooler on account of the cold front that moved through yesterday, but maxes should still run close to seasonal normals. The ridge is progged to remain in place over the next few days with the axis drifting eastward during the week. After that, the building ridge will slowly warm the airmass, though developing inversions will limit this warming from being fully realized in the valleys.
/issued 516 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017/ A cold front currently moving through the region was bringing drier surface air and improving visbys. Furthermore, very light freezing drizzle or snow will be possible out of this low cloud layer. Also emphasizing snow more than freezing drizzle over the southern Rolling Plains at least. Cold front on the verge of passing Lubbock at this moment, and will sweep southward before daybreak. The drier air also will erode and lift the low cloud deck, but it may be difficult to totally eliminate these clouds before dark this evening. Initial 4-8 millibar/three hour surface pressure rises early this morning will ease, but as 1050 millibar ridge noses southward to our east, at least low-end breezy conditions will remain through the day and overnight.
234 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Meridional mid-level flow was in place across the CONUS, with a broad trough stretched across the eastern half of the U. and a broad ridge over the western U.
1123 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Upper level flow remains northwest as a ridge persists over the west coast and deep trough over the eastern two- thirds of the United remains under the influence of a mean trough, with a jet stream shoved anomalously far south, allowing for very cold temperatures. The surface temperature will likely stay below zero for much of the area today, except for perhaps near the Nebraska/Kansas state line into north central Kansas where it will struggle to reach the lower single digits. Again, nothing to bank on for warmer temperatures.
222 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Broad upper troughing remains from the Great Lakes into the Plains with the Polar low remaining over southeast Ontario/Quebec. At the surface, high is centered over southern SD with cold front well off of the TX Gulf coast. Frigid airmass will slowly push east after Mon, with highs by Wed expected to be near the freezing mark for most of the area, which is still around 10 degrees below normal. These extended periods will start with a deep upper trough over eastern CONUS with nw flow situated over the Plains.
/Tonight through Monday/ Dangerously cold conditions will continue through Monday as an Arctic high pressure area slides down the Missouri River valley. /Monday night through Sunday/ On Monday night the Arctic high pressure center will slide from southwestern and southern Iowa down into Missouri, resulting in another dangerously cold night across the region.
1033 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across much of the CONUS, with ridging just off the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure has settled across the Northern Plains, with a stationary boundary along the lee of the Rockies. Arctic high pressure will slowly shift southeast across central South Dakota tonight. Although slightly warmer air will move into the area, the southerly winds will not make it feel any better. Some teens to lower 20s could be realized across the higher elevations of Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills.
330 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Arctic high pressure located over the northern Great Plains this afternoon will build to the south and east.
Another very cold night expected Monday night as the ridge axis gradually slides east across the region.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies the next couple of days. This ridge will keep the region dry, but valley inversions will be problematic. The other possibility is that the clouds will keep radiative cooling at bay and temperatures will stay relatively warmer.
214 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis shows the arctic front has pushed south to the Gulf Coast with high pressure building in from the Plains. The center of the high was positioned across the northern Plains today where temperatures were struggling to reach -20F.
145 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2017 High pressure will remain dominant across the region through the week as temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary closed low well west of the southern California coast will aid in boosting high amplitude ridging back along the west coast with H5 heights oscillating around the 580dm threshold locally.
Once the mid-level wave clears out of the region by Monday morning, high pressure will regain full control of the region as it nears closer from the NW. the temperatures will bottom out near or just below 0 in some locations in the north, and in the low single digits across the remaining CWA. A series of ridges of high pressure will be the primary weather makers in the extended across eastern Kentucky.
118 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2017 Dry northwest flow aloft continues as forecast area remains between a strong ridge to the west and a broad low pressure to the east. A weak upper trough will slide mostly down the front range Monday night and bring isold high mountain showers after midnight to the Park and Gore range.