Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Deep layer ridge of high pressure positioned over the forecast area keeps the weather pattern quiet in the near term. Under mostly clear skies, overnight lows look to range very close to seasonal normals for mid May, in the lower 60s over the interior while closer to the 70 degree mark along the beaches. Under mostly sunny skies, daytime highs Tuesday lift into the lower 90s over the interior, while a light onshore flow along area beaches moderates highs by a category or so, in the mid to upper 80s.
634 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing a deep longwave trof over the western CONUS with a closed off low/potent vort max currently digging southward through southern CA heading toward Baja.
However, high pressure will pass over the region Tuesday with sunshine and moderating temperatures. It will mark a transition to a drier and much warmer weather pattern.
1007 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will cross the area from the west Tuesday then move off into the western Atlantic for the rest of the week. Frontal boundary has become diffuse this evening with much less of a dewpoint gradient than earlier today, currently ranging from the lower 50s in the northeastern CWA to upper 60s around NCA. With subsidence from the high, not expecting any isolated convection along the sea breeze.
1133 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 The area stills remains under high pressure this afternoon with the high forecast to continue to drift eastward. Our next weather maker is an upper level trough currently making its way across southern California. This trough is expected to continue to dig into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday.
IFR ceilings likely at KSOA after midnight trough mid morning. On Tuesday, an upper level trough across the southwest states will slowly move toward the Southern Plains. Tuesday night, a potent upper level trough will move through the northern half of Texas. Height falls, and cooling aloft will combine with a Pacific cold front moving east into plentiful low level moisture to result in a line of thunderstorms developing to our west during the mid to late evening hours.
733 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure moves over the area tonight, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Some cooling aloft noted tonight so temperatures in the mountains should be slightly cooler than last night. closed low over AZ will fill and lift northeast across CO during the afternoon. Lee trof strengthens and kicks eastward in response with a windy day in store across much of the area. timing of the eastward progression of the sfc trof axis washes out dew points and keeps severe threat to the east of the area during the late afternoon and evening.
1028 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. High pressure will remain over the Southeastern states and skies will be clear through the night. A surface cold front will remain across North Carolina tonight but will slip farther southward by morning, although there will be no appreciable impact to the area's weather.
A cold front will pass across the region Saturday along with some snow showers and possibly a few squalls. Low pressure is expected to pass to the south midweek but the track is very uncertain at this time. A cold front will approach from the northwest early on Saturday and is expected to sweep across the region through midday.
323 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure centered over the FL peninsula this afternoon will gradually shift S and E of forecast area by Saturday.
An upper level trough will continue to move to the south tonight bringing rain and snow showers to the area through this evening. The current upper level low aloft will continue to move to the south/southeast this afternoon eventually swinging onshore. Showers will gradually diminish in intensity and coverage through tomorrow as the low pushes inland. especially across interior Mendocino County where a frost advisory has been issued to reflect temperatures falling to the low to mid 30s under generally clear skies later tonight.
High pressure continues to build into the region and dry air follows it in. This high and dry air will stick with us through the next several days.
An upper level low pressure system will continue to be over the region and centered over southern Oregon. This low will continue to spread moisture northward across the forecast area producing scattered to numerous showers at times for most of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be cool today due to cloud cover and the cooler air aloft mixing down due to the shower activity. The mid/upper level low pressure system will remain mostly to the south affecting mainly KRDM and KBDN as the next wrap around moisture band moves into central Oregon this afternoon thus bringing -SHRA to KRDM and KBND this afternoon.
As far as the Aberdeen CWA goes, the precipitation has remained mainly in the form of freezing rain and sleet just over the southwestern portion of the area, with little to no snow. Currently watching a band of precipitation wrapping around the north side of the low into southern South Dakota. It appears that the precipitation associated with this band has begun to turn to snow, so anticipate the freezing rain will come to an end as this band approaches. The system exits the area late tonight as high pressure moves in, resulting in dry conditions on Saturday.
132 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Aviation An area of high pressure will build in from the northeast today. Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday. Tonight the low pressure system off to the west will be headed east. Guidance suggest this low will be weakening with time. typically supports the highest temperatures for the western part of the CWA.
Higher dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to patchy fog over the coastal waters tonight into Saturday morning as well. A short wave trough over central Baja California this evening will move northeast into southwest Texas around 12Z Saturday and into northwest Texas by Saturday afternoon.
1252 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A strong low pressure system will be moving through the northwest portions of the State today. By Saturday, the cold front will be moving through and will kick the flow around to the north.
As the low moves north over west-central and southwestern Montana Saturday night, rain will transition to snow in those areas.
Strong southwest to west winds will diminish very gradually this afternoon, as the deep low pressure center over northern Kansas moves slowly to the east. Then, a cold front will move south across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, bringing a wind shift to the north, but little else.
210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The surface warm front is poised just to the south/west of the FA, starting to nub into/across the southern SEMO border. Things change tonight as the Low moves into Missouri, and the surface warm front is ultimately drawn northward into/across our area. The ridge is shunted east and the modeled soundings show the inversion breaks down, allowing the ample warm/moist advection to begin to precipitate. It looks to be mainly with the lift of the warm front as an assisted lifting force, so from about 00z-09z is the convective (slight) chance mention. Most of the pcpn chance is with the warm front tonight. A lingering pop in our north/east is carried tmrw, until the Low itself passes with the trailing cold fropa.
Surface obs this morning show a warm front located just north of the I-40 corridor with temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 north of the boundary, and rapidly warming into the upper 50s and low 60s south of it. Although clouds will increase into the afternoon as showers approach from the west and warm front will likely remain in our northern counties, still expecting a nice warmup into the afternoon with highs in the 60s to around 70 areawide. Current forecast looks good and only major change was to raise highs a couple degrees south of the warm front.
High pressure nosing in from the north behind this morning's cold fropa will keep us dry today, though mid and high clouds will gradually increase as the day goes on. Temps have overachieved the past couple of days, so will go a bit warmer than guidance might suggest, with highs mostly in the 50s. Tonight the former cold front will drift back north as a warm front into Kentucky while its parent low follows I-70 from Topeka to Saint Louis.
631 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Expect continuation of quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Went on lowest end of guidance for lows tonight with the high overhead and clear skies. Seems we could see lows into the lower single digits inland west. Coolest temps Saturday in the lower 30s will be found over the east near Lk Superior with light north winds and potential for some broken mid level clouds at times.
A mid/upper level low over north central Kansas this afternoon is causing today's dry and windy conditions. Sunset and further movement of the low away from the area will see these conditions abate this evening.
No significant changes from previous TAF package as high pressure remains in control through the period. Expect mostly sunny skies to continue over South FL through the day with light winds as high pressure remains in control. /issued 726 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ VFR will prevail through period at all terminals as high pressure overhead will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds.
At 850 mb, a weak trough of low pressure extended from central OK into central Texas. At 300 mb, a weak trough was noted over east Texas and upper level winds were broadly divergent. The surface to 850 mb trough will move east today this feature coupled with the slightly favorable upper level winds and moisture should provide the eastern half of the CWA a good chance of rain late this morning into the early afternoon.
634 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure will settle over the area tonight through the weekend while low pressure tracks up the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday.
This low is expected to slowly lift east across central Illinois through Saturday morning. As it does, a weak cold front will push through the Mid-South through tomorrow morning.
1201 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A variety of weather impacts are expected today and tonight thanks to a strong low pressure system moving through the area. WV imagery shows that this system is nearly vertically stacked with the center of the upper level low centered over northwestern Kansas. Mesoscale models (NAM/HRRR/RAP) all tend to develop an area of dynamic cooling on the backside of the low late this afternoon. The forecast quiets down for Saturday thanks to midlevel ridging, with light winds and temperatures rebounding into the 40s and 50s.
312 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure system brings a bag of wintry mixed pcpn late overnight tonight into Saturday morning.
451 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Low pressure will remain northeast of the region through the weekend.
315 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure will settle over the area tonight through the weekend while low pressure tracks up the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday.
The light precipitation is associated with a lingering weak trough and northerly fetch off the Great Lakes. High pressure will dominate the region through Saturday with sunny days and clear nights. Only exception is perhaps some mid to high level clouds brushing over the south half of the state today due to the passing storm system over the lower to mid mississippi valley region. This easterly component will drift southward along the lakeshore as the high pressure ridge axis shifts south. Light northeast winds return for Saturday, so slightly cooler readings expected along the shoreline.
325 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Latest surface analysis shows a ridge extending from the western Atlantic across Florida into the forecast area. At the upper levels, mid latitude cyclone over the Central Plains becoming elongated, while southern stream is located at the base of the trough from the cyclone and stretches from the East Pac through northern Old Mexico and Texas, then across the Gulf South. A second upper level low is moving off the Pacific into northern California. Convective indices remain on the marginal side, and thus any showers that can tap into the highest instability may have enough updraft strength for storm growth to produce cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds, although any organization of the storms seems limited.
151 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperature are expected into the afternoon amid upper-level low pressure. Wintry precipitation could clip northern West Virginia and the ridges Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the ridge zones of Garrett, ern/wrn Tucker and ern Preston Counties beginning pre- dawn tonight and continuing thru Saturday. In either case for the ridge zones, headline thresholds will be met (either for all snow or for freezing rain). Places from Zanesville to Morgantown should be prepared for the possibility of a few inches of snow or a light glaze of freezing rain, although current expectation is that thermal profiles will support predominantly sleet during the late morning timeframe.
138 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperature are expected into the afternoon amid upper-level low pressure. Wintry precipitation could clip northern West Virginia and the ridges Saturday.
210 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A wintry mix will move into areas along and south of the highway 24 corridor late tonight into Saturday morning before ending.
123 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR during this taf cycle as a warm front advects atop the region tonight leading to increased precipitation chances and lowered cigs.
306 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Upper level analysis shows a closed low centered on the coast of northern California and southern Oregon and another closed off over southern Nebraska. Tonight light winds and high pressure aloft will create an opportunity for patchy fog in the James River valley, especially where cloud cover decreases further east. On Saturday high pressure centered over eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota will lead to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 30s with areas of western North Dakota reaching the low 40s where snow cover is thinner.
A gradual wind shift to the north or northwest is expected overnight tonight following the passage of a weak cold front.
120 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A negatively-tilted mid to upper-level trough will cross overhead the local area during the afternoon hours. There is still some uncertainty on whether or not the lower levels can destabilize sufficiently to produce surface based convection this afternoon. Aside from this risk, there is also the potential for elevated storms to produce marginally severe hail as MUCAPE values approach 700 to 800 j/kg, with freezing heights beneath 8000 ft. Saturday afternoon highs will peak in the mid 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows slightly cooler than tonight.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed very well-structured mid latitude cyclone deepening across far west central Kansas. The High Wind Warning remains in effect.
Southeasterly surface flow should prevail through the short term (keeping us above average for temps) as a high pressure system continues to exit stage east. Winds should remain just high enough to keep dense fog from developing, especially in the lower valley.
On Sat, a south/southwest wind flow will boost high temps into the lower-mid 80s, except for readings around 80 along the coast.
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Potent system moving through the region today creating areas of freezing rain and thunderstorms across our CWA. Freezing rain has been limited to extreme northeast Nebraska but have gotten a few reports of light icing on elevated surfaces in western Iowa. A few bands will continue to pivot north across the area, but feel current headlines will work-out as freezing rain gradually changes over to sleet along the SD/Neb border, so only a little additional icing is expected yet this afternoon. As the main low continues to slide east overnight, cooler air dropping south will turn precipitation over to a sleet or snow mix before precipitation ends all-together as the system pulls east. Weak high pressure moves overhead for Saturday however another system approaches the region later this weekend.
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Staunch upper level low over the central plains is beginning to move off to the east after stalling for a bit this morning. As the mid level dry slot works north, snow will likely end across the eastern FA with freezing drizzle returning for a period this evening. Attention then turns toward the remainder of the western CONUS trough, which will eject into the central plains later this weekend. This system will have a decent WAA signal, which would support some potential for freezing rain and sleet.
312 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Active forecast in the short term with band of precipitation lifting to the northwest across the forecast area wrapping around a low pressure center across eastern Nebraska. As the upper level low weakens and shifts east, atmosphere dries out from aloft. With residual lift through deep saturated layer could see some light drizzle/freezing drizzle through the evening hours.
320 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Skies remain mostly clear across the island chain with temperatures ranging from the low 70s (in the upper keys) to upper 70s in the lower and middle keys. No surpises are in store for the short term, as surface ridging continues across the Florida peninsula, gradually shifting to the western Atlantic through the weekend. The forecast remains on track for temperatures and humidity to increase as the upper level trough (centered in New England) lifts northward, escorting our pleasant continential dry air out of the Southeast US.
1246 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 MVFR to occasional IFR conditions will continue for the next several hours before drier air starts to move in behind a departing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon along the passing cold front but widespread severe weather chances look unlikely as upper cap looks fairly stout. expect upper level ridging to return over the state.
151 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A dry cold front near the south coast will move to the south today and become stationary. Weak low pressure will move through late Saturday, pulling the front back north as a warm front.
246 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Expect continuation of quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Went on lowest end of guidance for lows tonight with the high overhead and clear skies. Seems we could see lows into the lower single digits inland west. Coolest temps Saturday in the lower 30s will be found over the east near Lk Superior with light north winds and potential for some broken mid level clouds at times.
/issued 849 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ Dry and stable conditions courtesy of high pressure over the region will support pleasant dry weather with ample sunshine and light winds across the entire forecast area the remainder of today. After a very cool start (temps in the 30s and 40s) temperatures will rebound quickly with highs topping out in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas during the afternoon, but upper 60s to around 70 along the coast due to an afternoon sea breeze.
646 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Low pressure will remain northeast of the region through the weekend.
Forecast confidence is high: Low pressure will pass by to the south tonight, with precip on the north side of the low brushing the southern forecast area. Still looks like mainly snow, but not out of the question to see a brief mix with sleet or freezing rain given a little warm layer aloft and a possible loss of saturation in the ice crystal growth zone. It will be cooler toward the east, especially near Lake Michigan under onshore winds.
West winds around 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts (favoring KAMA) will continue in the wake of an exiting low pressure system. A weak cold front will move across the terminals around 17/01Z, which will veer the winds to the north BTWN 5 to 15 kts.
300 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The main short-term forecast concern is a stacked low pressure system centered over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas early this afternoon. The low is forecast to drift to the east through tonight, bringing precipitation into northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin during the evening and overnight hours. In short, think the far northern edge of the precipitation should remain mostly snow, with a mix or change over to light freezing rain across our far southern areas during the overnight. As the low departs to the east, high pressure will begin to build in Saturday afternoon, leading to decreasing clouds, light winds, and above normal temperatures.
The high, currently over the region, is progged to slide eastward over the next couple of days. This will bring a more southerly flow to the area, advecting some warmer, moister air over South Florida.
335 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The pesky precipitation on the back side of the upper low has finally ended over northeast Colorado. Models show an upper ridge push across Colorado tonight. southwesterly flow aloft is expected as the next upper trough develops west and northwest of us. Will go with a tad of pops over the high mountains late Saturday afternoon with the approaching moisture and system. For temperatures, Saturday's highs will be about 5 C warmer than today's highs. Flow aloft over Colorado will be out of the southwest, ahead of an upper trough moving into the Great Basin.
This will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
245 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A backdoor cold front will push south across central NC this afternoon, then stall across the area through Saturday. An area of low pressure will cross the area Saturday night, dragging the front southward.
355 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A warm front, located just north of Nashville early this afternoon, resulted in 3 pm temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 along and south of the I-40 corridor, to near 60 along the Kentucky border.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 63 37 47 / 80 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 61 36 45 / 80 60 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 62 36 45 / 80 50 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 54 34 43 / 70 70 40 50.
Overall, with the low dew points and light winds, low temperatures were lowered across the area a couple degrees (on average). Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, but humidity will once again be very low and afternoon winds likely a little stronger. Have again populated the dewpoint grids for tomorrow afternoon with the ECMWF at the lower end of the guidance range.
905 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 A warm front remains on the doorstep of the region along the Cumberland Plateau of Middle Tennessee and far NE Alabama and NW Georgia. We start Tuesday with the cold front just to the east of the area. The airmass behind this front is rather dry and with good mixing and clear skies tomorrow think that temps may actually end up warmer Tuesday than today. Highs in the low to mid 60s are possible for much of the area. The upper level system that was situated over the northern US begins to drop S/SE through the day Tuesday and will push a secondary cold front into the area late Tuesday evening.
Upper level ridge over the region Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.
Current short term model guidance suggests that overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than previously forecasted. MVFR will be common through the night as scattered showers impact the area ahead of a cold front. After 18Z, an approaching low pressure system from the northwest will begin to create gusty WSW winds.
Dry weather and a significant warming trend will continue through midweek as high pressure remains in control. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures are making for a spectacular afternoon, weatherwise, over the central California interior. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate our weather pattern through midweek.
/issued 234 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The cold front is now south of West Central Texas. The highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.