Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level high pressure firmly entrenched over Texas with drying right on top of west central Texas continuing to indicate sinking/warming air over our region. Another day of mainly 100 to 105 degrees for highs with a few isolated locations cooler than 100 along the I-10 corridor, or hotter than 105, mainly in the Haskell or Throckmorton County area. A strong upper level high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern and continue to bring hot and dry conditions to West Central Texas during the next 7 days.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
IN ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IN THESE AREAS SHOWN IN THE MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
315 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY MAKING FOR A TYPICAL MID SUMMER DAY NOW THAT THE EARLIER FOG AND MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT. THEY ALL DEPICT THE WESTERN GULF COAST RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION. EAST KENTUCKY IS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE AND AS SUCH SEEING MINOR WAVES PASSING BY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND STARTS TO KNOCK DOWN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS COMPLEX PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. AND SEVERAL UPPER LOWS FROM THE GOA TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER LOW OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER THE YELLOWSTONE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW OVER THE YELLOWSTONE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST THIS EVENING.
The cold front will be near Great Bend to Dodge City and Hugoton by morning then near Medicine Lodge by Sunday late afternoon. Much of the higher moisture will be in back of the front into tonight with around 3000 J/kg CAPE forecast and mid level winds around 20 to 30kt. High temps could be around 100 at Medicine Lodge again ahead of the front with cooler upper 80s to lower 90s in back of the front. Will also hang on to some 20 to 30 percent chances for thunderstorms along and north of the cold front.
/ISSUED 249 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HIKE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WEST TEXAS REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS WITH MONSOONAL PRESSURE AGAINST WESTERN ZONES WHILE A DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH LATE WEEKEND ALLOWS A WEAK FRONT TO DRAG THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
158 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S.
Probably wont be too much of a complaint though with heat indices relatedly being a bit cooler as well over the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. Attention then turns to tonight with the expectation that another MCS will form on the western periphery of the upper ridge and then descend into Missouri later tonight. A frontal boundary tied to upper low moving through Hudson Bay will move into the Plains on Sunday and rain chances will be on the increase as surface waves move along the front Sunday night.
Relatively quiet and seasonably warm conditions are expected across the region today with the forecast area sitting between a monsoonal push to the southeast of the forecast area and a developing low pressure system off the Pacific coast. Moisture will deepen over the Cascades today as the offshore system creates a more coherent southerly flow regime and a slow moving highly meridional cold front sneaks into the coast. 18Z TAFS: A deep upper level low pressure system will dig offshore with moisture increasing over the region late this afternoon into tonight.
242 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015 THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ID MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MT. THE STAGNANT UPPER RIDGE PREVAILED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING DEMISE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN NE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTHWARD.
518 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/IMPULSE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATION.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ABOUT THE AREA AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT THERE IS NO REAL RELIEF AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE REGION.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
136 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 Upper ridge was still centered over East TX this morning and stretched across the region.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OWING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVERHEAD INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN LATE TOMORROW.
218 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADES SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL U. THIS OCCURS AS ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DRIVES OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND SPINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
318 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS INCREASED OVER THE FAR SRN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AS SURFACE HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE LOWER LEVELS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN KS TRACKS EASTWARD AND DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR SE PLAINS.
640 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER MANITOBA WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE WARMER DUE TO LINGERING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE JUST A TAD COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
HOT AND DRY SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE WAY OF THINGS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS UPPER LVL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVERHEAD.
425 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 THE FA WILL EXPERIENCE 2 MORE DAYS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MON THROUGH TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE/SW KS LATE TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA EXTENDS TO MN AND SD. SLIGHT RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING OVER MN AND WI. A LITTLE DENSE FOG HAS FORMED JUST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUDS. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RETROGRADING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
254 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS JET AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE A DRY DAY OVERALL AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE AREA OR JUST EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE A RESULT OF STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND A STUBBORN MARINE AIR MASS THAT LINGERED INLAND INTO MIDDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN DESCEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER BY MIDWEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW. ADVECT IN COOLER AIR. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS THE REGION AS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BACKBUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN EASTERN WYOMING.
BUT WAS NOTED FROM MORNING DEW POINT READINGS THAT WERE UP TO 3 DEGREES WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY.
553 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADES SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL U. THIS OCCURS AS ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DRIVES OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND SPINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOMINANT SUMMERTIME H5 RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
THIS IS UNLIKELY TO LAST AS INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AS USUAL. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY 06Z AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN.
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD CENTERED OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FORCES THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE W.
WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE GALESBURG AREA.
WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE SHOULD DRIVE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST.
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
126 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST CO FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING.
LATEST AVAILABLE IT IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE EAST TO WEST CENTER OF A MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTH TEXAS. WITH AN ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO ABOUT GEORGIA. THE AXIS OF A SHARPENING MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARDS TO OFF OF NORTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DOES SHOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED FAIRLY FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE SUN PROVIDED ENOUGH SFC HEATING TO ACT ON THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET STORMS FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLIER THAN USUAL BY 17Z/11AM MDT. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING ALONG WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 20KT RANGE BUT COLLAPSE AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHICH HELPS SETUP ANOTHER WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC/WARM FRONTAL REGION - LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IA. THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO REFOCUSES INTO AND ACROSS THE WEST-EAST FRONTOGENETIC REGION. WHERE THE CLOUD/RAIN SHIELD SETS UP WILL HAVE SOME SAY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MOVE.
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850 TO 300 MB LAYER BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS TX. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT CU IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP VERTICALLY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, POSSIBLY BY LATE MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. /ISSUED 758 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, THIS WILL INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TODAY. SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE SHORT TERM /AND INTO LONG RANGE FOR THAT MATTER/ CONSISTS OF STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN PLAINS. WITH A LEAST MODEST TROUGHS OVER BOTH COASTS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
358 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS WHERE THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY.
132 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY.
Not much change in the forecast through Sunday, with hot and dry conditions continuing as the upper level ridge dominates.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MON-TUES) UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE FA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
403 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 ANOTHER STORMY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME CLEARING SKIES IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH CAP WEAKER THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GET AWAY FROM RIDGE AXIS.
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 COMBINATION OF UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP FOR THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN STORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH SIDE OF A MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND.
AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN NE FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW OF THE MODELS ERODE THE CAP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOP STORMS. THIS IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE DIRECTLY AHEAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT SO KEPT A SLIGHT POP AS THE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NE MINNESOTA WHERE SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP. WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE PLACED ON THE COLD FRONT THOUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN.
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY.
A 594DM 500MB RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF EAST TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION BRINGING THE LOW/MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE ENCROACHING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER DELTA. SUNDAY WILL SEE A FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
629 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS/JUST WEST OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. WILL ALSO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS VICINITY AS DEEP UPSLOPE MAY BE STUBBORN TO END. THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CORNER OF MONTANA AND EXITING THE REGION.
AS NLY SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHIFT EWD. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM OK TO NRN AL. A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS MAY COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY, BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TO AROUND 100 NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PHASE WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
directly beneath the main thermal ridge axis in place across the Central Plains. RUC vorticity/water vapor combo still showing several weak inbound waves rotating along the northern periphery of a well-entrenched Southern Plains upper ridge. Overall convective scenario this afternoon was in question based on a much further southward track of last night/s MCS activity from the High Plains. High res suite suggests an outflow reinforced warm front will stall south of the IA/MO state line later tonight after initial MCS passes. Drier conditions to then return by the early work week along with cooler temps. Through the mid-week, the southern ridge axis will slowly work its way north with resulting mid-level northwest flow over the area.
OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND KEEPING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS IN TACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 595 DM RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS OUR CWA. STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. OVERALL SEVERE INDICES FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ON A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO MAIN TROUGH AXIS. NAM SHOWS INCREASING FORCING BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT: COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWEST KS TO SOUTHEAST CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THIS EVENING INTO A MARKEDLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COVERING NORTHWEST & WEST-CENTRAL KS. THE AFORE-MENTIONED S/SE MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE "STAR OF THE SHOW" IN ALL RESPECTS. IF THE FRONT'S SWD PROGRESS IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED THEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE EXPANDED TO ALONG THE HIGHWAY 400 CORRIDOR. TUE & TUE NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SE ACROSS NEBRASKA & KS WILL ADVECT COOLER & DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE NICE WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS. WITH A DEEP(!) UPPER-DECK TROF DIGGING FROM QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH WOULD SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE & E OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
645 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.
AND FINALLY HEADING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND IS INTEGRATED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW.
Given expanding ridging would expect it to dissipate as it gets closer and stay north of the area. Attention then turns to the aforementioned expanding ridge across the area. This ridge will dominate the weather through Sunday with increasing heat and humidity.
Over the next several days, upper level ridging will migrate westward from the southern plains into the southern and central Rockies. There will be a chance of thunderstorms as the cold front passes this afternoon and tonight. Therefore, damaging winds will be a possibility with the storms given the high cloud bases.
CAMERON IS THE ONLY ZONE WHERE TEMPS WERE NOT CLOSE TO 108, HOWEVER THE ONLY RELIABLE OBS ARE AT THE SOMEWHAT COOLER COAST.
456 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015 THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ID MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MT. THE STAGNANT UPPER RIDGE PREVAILED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING DEMISE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN NE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTHWARD.
WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN CLOSE TO THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. THE REGION WILL BE AT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. EAST-WEST UPPER RIDGING OVER FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP COVERAGE. UPPER HIGH OVER SRN PLAINS SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED LAPSE RATES WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS PARTICULARLY WED-FRI.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN SECTIONS SUNDAY. PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY AS NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT PASSES KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z SUNDAY AND 11Z SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SW FLOW IN THE MID-UPR LEVELS WHICH WILL TAP NICELY INTO THE MONSOON PLUME AS EVIDENT BY H7 THETA-E ADVECTION/RIDGING.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT AND IT WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL SUNDAY MORNING.
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A COOLING SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
846 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
1035 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES.