Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
950 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Extremely cold and windy weather will continue through the holiday weekend in the wake of an intense low pressure system.
The region will remain under the influence of very cold closed low pressure centered over the southern Hudson Bay today and overnight, with daytime highs still forecast to break most if not all lo max records at our climate sites.
215 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over North Dakota this morning. At the upper levels, northwest flow sits over the region, as strong upper low makes its way over Quebec, and upper ridging builds over the western CONUS. Expect temperatures to improve over the weekend as ridge builds and slides eastward over the Rockies. Earlier time of boundary passage could impact how long the above freezing temps are able to crust current snow, and therefore cause blowing snow concerns. Another concern will be potential freezing precipitation as above freezing temperatures are expected to bring rain or a mix to some areas, that could freeze as temperatures drop, causing slick roads for some areas.
Christmas Day will be a few degrees warmer, but still below freezing.
820 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Chilly morning as previously advertised with subfreezing temperatures and 10-15 mph northwest wind. everywhere else, hopefully temperatures will be exceeding or approaching freezing mark by that time. Will make that change when our current hard freezing warning approaches its current 11am/16z expiration.
* Temperatures will continue to moderate today and tomorrow, before a cold front drops temperatures back down to start the work week. Light freezing drizzle possible along with slick surfaces in spots Christmas evening.
As clouds slowly move east, more and more area will begin to fall into the low teens and upper single digits this morning. Skies will become clear areawide, which will result in radiative cooling, but with warmer daytime temperatures, lows will only fall into the teens and low 20s.
Warm air and moisture overrunning the moderating arctic airmass will lead to mixed precipitation chances including snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Ceiling will lower to MVFR this evening with mixed precipitation, including freezing rain possible overnight.
413 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over North Dakota this morning. At the upper levels, northwest flow sits over the region, as strong upper low makes its way over Quebec, and upper ridging builds over the western CONUS. Expect temperatures to improve over the weekend as ridge builds and slides eastward over the Rockies. Earlier time of boundary passage could impact how long the above freezing temps are able to crust current snow, and therefore cause blowing snow concerns. Another concern will be potential freezing precipitation as above freezing temperatures are expected to bring rain or a mix to some areas, that could freeze as temperatures drop, causing slick roads for some areas.
Highs should climb above freezing for most areas this afternoon, mainly in the mid and upper 30s. Readings dropping below freezing again tonight but at least remaining in the upper teens and lower 20s.
This on top of southerly surface winds helps the entire region climb back above freezing after the arctic front.
1144 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 (Today through Sunday Night ) Northwest flow aloft continues over the middle part of the country with strong low pressure over southeast Canada and an upper ridge off the coast of southern California. Highs today will be from the mid 20s to mid 30s and in the lower 30s to lower 40s Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the single digits northwest to the teens south and in the lower to mid 20s Sunday night.
The southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm up to the highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
(Tonight) As anticipated, we've remained below freezing for yet another day. Overnight lows will be "warmer" reaching double digits in the lower teens.
1021 AM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over North Dakota this morning. At the upper levels, northwest flow sits over the region, as strong upper low makes its way over Quebec, and upper ridging builds over the western CONUS. Expect temperatures to improve over the weekend as ridge builds and slides eastward over the Rockies. Earlier time of boundary passage could impact how long the above freezing temps are able to crust current snow, and therefore cause blowing snow concerns. Another concern will be potential freezing precipitation as above freezing temperatures are expected to bring rain or a mix to some areas, that could freeze as temperatures drop, causing slick roads for some areas.
Dangerous cold wind chills continue across the higher elevations through Christmas morning. Temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the forecast period. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night, generally ranging from the single digits to just above single digits. Christmas day should be sunny and warmer as the Arctic airmass continues to moderate across the region. Look for high temps in the mid to upper 20s, with some areas getting into the low 30s. Though highs are still well below normal, plenty of sun and the warmer temps will make it feel much nicer than what we've seen the past few days.
Highs will be about 10 degrees warmer than today in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
There is a chance for rain and maybe some freezing rain across eastern portions of the Tri-State area Sunday night. The rest of the day will see generally clear skies and warmer temperatures as an upper level ridge begins pushing into the area. In spite of the lows near 0 in the east, no hazards are expected with winds forecasted to be light. This will change winds to out of the north and increase cloud cover along with cooler temperatures and some moisture advection. There is a very low chance for freezing rain, but currently most of the precipitation would move through with dewpoints in the low 30's and temperatures around 40. This would make it hard to cool to freezing or near freezing before the precipitation and moisture shift off to the east.
Mostly cloudy, windy, cool, and dry conditions prevail across the Florida Keys and most of the adjoining coastal waters this morning, following the passage of a powerful cold front last night. Strong northerly breezes will decrease slowly over the next couple of days in wake of the recent cold front.
100 PM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 It's a race between temperatures and precipitation today to determine who will get snow, rain, or freezing rain. But, the clouds coming in aloft are warmer than the ground and are warming the valleys via radiation. The south winds will help break out the southern ends of the north-south oriented valleys, but how far north will it break out? And once it breaks out, in many areas the ground is so cold that rain will still freeze on it once it makes contact, even if the air temperature is above freezing. And even if they do, it won't be for long enough to warm the ground enough to prevent freezing rain.
Extremely dry air in the lower/mid levels will keep any precip chances at bay across western Kansas through late Sunday afternoon. Expect lows back down into the single digits(F) in central Kansas but downsloping developing late out west should keep lows from dropping below the lower teens(F) in extreme portions of southwest Kansas. Deepening lee side troughing will enhance a southwesterly downslope flow into western Kansas Sunday, helping to erode the colder air mass across the high plains and pushing H85 temperatures up above 5C in central Kansas to nearing 10C out nearthe Colorado border. Afterward, a drier pattern will resume control across the Western High Plains through mid-week as weak ridging aloft gives way to a more zonal flow aloft.
As far as actual air temperatures, lows will be in the lower teens to lower 20s across the CWA with single-digit lows expected across far northeast Georgia. High pressure will remain in place at the surface tomorrow while a 500 mb disturbance kicks through with associated mid- and upper- level clouds in tow. The plentiful sunshine today and ample sunshine tomorrow will begin to moderate the cold airmass that has gripped north and central Georgia over the past few days, leading to "warmer" highs tomorrow (relatively speaking) in the lower 30s to lower 40s outside of the higher terrain of far north Georgia, where highs will be in the 20s.
Unfortunately, temperatures are not going to get above freezing during short term forecast period but a slow warmup to temperatures closer to the freezing mark is expected.
323 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Drier and breezy conditions are expected through the holiday weekend as high pressure builds towards the region.
With the ridge moving east, winds will continue to gradually shift towards the south the rest of this weekend. The warming trend will continue into Christmas Day with highs finally above freezing areawide.
147 PM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Upper level analysis shows deep upper trough centered over western Quebec with upper ridging building over the NW US. Temperatures will push above freezing as the low-level baroclinic zone surges eastward tomorrow. In addition to the rain/snow, there is potential for a period of light freezing rain/drizzle as the front sags southward late tonight, mainly across NW SD. Have opted against any winter headlines at this time, as the bulk of the snow (outside of the Black Hills) will remain east of our area + melting and refreezing of old snow crust is likely to limit blowing snow potential.
Winds will slacken slightly as high pressure approaches from the southwest and the pressure gradient finally relaxes across the area.
135 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Strong low pressure will drift slowly north through Quebec and weaken through tonight.
Another lee-side trough will develop over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico early Christmas morning. A Saskatchewan Screamer diving southeast through the Northern Plains will help to send a cold front through the Panhandles Christmas night.
Look for daytime highs to be ~10 degrees warmer than yesterday with plenty of sunshine to make it look warmer than it actually is.
Compared to low temperatures the last several days, tonight will be warmer with lows ranging from the teens to the low 20s. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to trend warmer with the help of southwest surface winds and abundant sunshine during the daytime.
1133 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Chilly morning as previously advertised with subfreezing temperatures and 10-15 mph northwest wind. everywhere else, hopefully temperatures will be exceeding or approaching freezing mark by that time. Will make that change when our current hard freezing warning approaches its current 11am/16z expiration.
Windy conditions are expected to slightly ease up tonight, but still strong surface pressure gradient in between the departed eastern Canadian vortex and Plains ridge will keep winds high enough for areas near and north of I-70 to drop slightly into wind chill criteria again overnight and Christmas morning. Winds Christmas afternoon will drop off as the ridge expands into the Mississippi Valley.
Given these observations, as well as a more relaxed pressure gradient in place, have cancelled the Wind Chill Advisory and Hard Freeze Warning for the entire CWA with the mid-morning forecast update, but little thawing is expected as temps should climb to/above freezing around midday/early afternoon, but only reach the mid 30s with the elevated cigs limiting much of a warmup. What limited warming we see this afternoon will quickly diminish by or shortly after sunset, with temps expected to again fall back below freezing and remain so through much of Christmas morning.
Another low pressure will develop over the northern plains and dive southward into the lower Missouri River Valley on Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the associated cold front will promote breezy southwesterly winds, especially across portions of central Kansas. Elsewhere, especially along and east of the Turnpike, most locations will remain below freezing throughout Christmas Day.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to near freezing across the region and we'll continue to warm another few degrees through the afternoon before falling back down into the low/mid 20s again tonight.
And, we are still expecting decent warming Sunday afternoon as highs climb into the lower/mid 20s for western Ia, but into the mid 30s for central NE.
113 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022 Extremely cold and windy weather will continue through the holiday weekend in the wake of an intense low pressure system.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Around 1 PM today temps across most of the area had risen to just above freezing with modest 3hr MSLP falls. Mon AM will trend warmer with lows in the U20s-M30s.
Omega in the lowest 5,000 feet within the cloud layer ends up being within the dendrite growth zone so flurry activity could actually pick up during the evening. Pressure gradient begins to weaken with ridge axis moving overhead with continued warm advection and gradual moderation in temperatures.
(Tonight through Saturday) It'll be another cold night tonight with temperatures just a few degrees warmer than what was observed this morning. By Christmas morning southerly winds will begin to develop, which will help to warm temperatures above freezing across the CWA, with readings as high as the low 40s in the south. Model soundings continue to show a borderline set up for light snow or freezing rain depending on the warm nose intrusion above the surface.
Strong ridging along the California coast will build inland over the next couple of days.
We have observed mostly cloudy, windy, cool, and dry weather across the Florida Keys today in wake of a strong cold front which swept through the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters last night. Our forecast of 45-50F (coolest in the upper Keys, warmest in the lower Keys) is close to a consensus of post-processed statistical guidance.
* Snow/ freezing drizzle possible Sunday night in light precipitation event. * Warmer conditions expected mid-late week. Given the lower confidence in actually reaching -15 F, will remain headline free through the overnight. Warm nose appears to be less pronounced in soundings, so snow should be favored precipitation type, but as dendritic layer dries out, could see some freezing drizzle mix in with lift remaining in the deep stratus in the near surface layer. With surface temperatures in the upper 20s, any freezing drizzle would be highly impactful.
A few lucky places in north Mississippi may warm to near or slightly above freezing tomorrow, but most of us will have to wait another day.
410 PM MST Sat Dec 24 2022 Upper level analysis shows deep upper trough centered over western Quebec with upper ridging building over the NW US. Temperatures will push above freezing as the low-level baroclinic zone surges eastward tomorrow. In addition to the rain/snow, there is potential for a period of light freezing rain/drizzle as the front sags southward late tonight, mainly across NW SD. Have opted against any winter headlines at this time, as the bulk of the snow (outside of the Black Hills) will remain east of our area + melting and refreezing of old snow crust is likely to limit blowing snow potential.
Looking ahead into Christmas Day, model guidance continue to show the upper low slowly lift east and north across southern Canada. With this low slowly shifting to the north the arctic airmass that introduced dangerous cold conditions over the last few days should begin to slowly shift to the north away from our CWA starting Sunday evening.
With some moisture left in the lower levels and the DGZ now off the surface, some flurries and even snow showers have been spotted across the forecast area. Omega in the lowest 5,000 feet within the cloud layer ends up being within the dendrite growth zone so flurry activity could actually pick up during the evening. Pressure gradient begins to weaken with ridge axis moving overhead with continued warm advection and gradual moderation in temperatures.
Extremely dry air in the lower/mid levels will keep any precip chances at bay across western Kansas through late Sunday afternoon. Expect lows back down into the single digits(F) in central Kansas but downsloping developing late out west should keep lows from dropping below the lower teens(F) in extreme portions of southwest Kansas. Deepening lee side troughing will enhance a southwesterly downslope flow into western Kansas Sunday, helping to erode the colder air mass across the high plains and pushing H85 temperatures up above 5C in central Kansas to nearing 10C out near the Colorado border. Afterward, a drier pattern will resume control across the Western High Plains through mid-week as weak ridging aloft gives way to a more zonal flow aloft.
534 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 (Tonight) As anticipated, we've remained below freezing for yet another day. Overnight lows will be "warmer" reaching double digits in the lower teens.
518 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Around 1 PM today temps across most of the area had risen to just above freezing with modest 3hr MSLP falls. Mon AM will trend warmer with lows in the U20s-M30s.
With some moisture left in the lower levels and the DGZ now off the surface, some flurries have been spotted across the forecast area. Omega in the lowest 5,000 feet within the cloud layer ends up being within the dendrite growth zone so flurry activity could actually pick up during the evening. Pressure gradient begins to weaken with ridge axis moving overhead with continued warm advection and gradual moderation in temperatures.
To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly.
Temperatures remain cooler in the Arkansas River Valley around La Junta with the persistent snow cover. Still expecting some single digit temperatures along the Lower Arkansas River Valley, especially where there is snow cover near La Junta. Chilly, but near normal, temperatures will occur tonight in the higher mountain valleys, including the San Luis Valley. Warmest temperatures tonight will be along the lower slopes of the eastern mountains which drain well with light westerly winds.
Continue to take precautions to keep outdoor pets warm and sheltered and protect exposed pipes to minimize chances of them freezing for at least one more night.
Another low pressure will develop over the northern plains and dive southward into the lower Missouri River Valley on Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the associated cold front will promote breezy southwesterly winds, especially across portions of central Kansas. Elsewhere, especially along and east of the Turnpike, most locations will remain below freezing throughout Christmas Day. Temperatures will fall to near or just below freezing prior to the cold front's arrival late Sunday night into early Monday. A region of deep layer ascent just ahead of the cold front should support a brief period of wintry precip across portions of northern and eastern Kansas. CAA behind the cold front on Monday will keep temperatures steady or slowly falling in the 20s throughout the day.
Most areas should drop into the lower to mid teens, even west of the I-65 corridor by daybreak on Sunday despite expected cloud cover. In the higher elevations of Franklin county (TN), Jackson county (AL), and DeKalb county (AL), the mentioned winds combined with lows between 9 and 15 degrees will still produce wind chill values between 0 and -5 degrees Fahrenheit overnight.
The icing is resulting from the blowing snow being compacted and warmed under the tires of traveling cars, briefly melting the snow before immediately refreezing into a thin layer of ice. Snow production is being driven primarily through isentropic upglide along the 280-290K surfaces ahead of the surface cyclone coupled with stout upper level kinematic lift, with some token Fgen forcing noted closer to the low center in Iowa. The current snowfall forecast of 1-3 inches still looks to be on track with the highest totals mainly along and west of the Mississippi River where there will be a juxtaposition of higher snow ratios and stronger forcing.
1034 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Around 1 PM today temps across most of the area had risen to just above freezing with modest 3hr MSLP falls. Mon AM will trend warmer with lows in the U20s-M30s.
Patchy freezing fog is possible again this morning. Today through Monday night Ridging continues on this Christmas Day, which will bring partly to mostly sunny skies and above normal high temperatures in the the 40's north to the 50's in central Nevada. Winds will be on the lighter side under ridging. Highs Monday continue in the 40's and 50's and lows Monday night will be mainly in the 30's, with many valleys staying above freezing.
A fast-moving low pressure system will move southeast through the region this afternoon and tonight. This ultimately results in more ridging off the West Coast and a shift toward a negative PNA teleconnection. NW winds will slowly diminish into Sunday morning as high pressure approaches before becoming light Sunday evening. In La Crosse, WI, the high temperature was 8F in 2000. The low temperature in 2000 was -26F. The high temperature was 9F in 2000 and -6F in 1996.
Temperatures remain cooler in the Arkansas River Valley around La Junta with the persistent snow cover. Still expecting some single digit temperatures along the Lower Arkansas River Valley, especially where there is snow cover near La Junta. Chilly, but near normal, temperatures will occur tonight in the higher mountain valleys, including the San Luis Valley. Warmest temperatures tonight will be along the lower slopes of the eastern mountains which drain well with light westerly winds. The short wave to the northeast will push in a weak cold front, and temperatures will drop closer to average values for this time of year.
221 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Although still very cold, temperatures will be a bit warmer today with just a few flurries possible.
The thaw from the arctic outbreak late last week will be on today, as high temps over the vast majority of the forecast area climb above freezing. However, the soundings are also fairly dry in the low levels and the wet-bulb profile is all below 0C.
- Temperatures trend warmer later this week. This wave will turn southeast and eventually south as it rounds an upper ridge building over the western states. Forecast soundings suggest temperatures warm right to freezing near 850mb over the KC as precipitation moves into the area. With temperatures cooler east and warmer west. This will lead to west to east transition from light freezing rain to sleet to snow as the whole area of precipitation quickly moves south with the advancing clipper. Given the cold air that has been in place, if freezing rain and freezing drizzle are able to develop, the one to two hundredths will easily accrete on surfaces. In the wake of this system, upper-level ridging will spread into the middle of the country, broadening out as it does.
Arctic airmass will slowly moderate with highs today 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overall, surface ridging and dry airmass will allow for more widespread sun and moderating temperatures. Highs will be some 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This afternoon warms up nicely as mid- level ridging takes hold to our west.
After having a cup of coffee and warming up a bit, a present of temperatures at or above freezing today for a good portion of the area was left behind. We were told we would have to deal with one more night of hard freeze temperatures in the teens, but the warmer temperatures were on the way. Looks like all areas will see above freezing temperatures on Monday albeit brief and cloudy. A few of the short range models are even hinting at the low levels being moist enough to support some sprinkles/flurries making it to the near surface.