Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging builds in through tonight then shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft turns more southwest as the upper low/trough approaches the west coast. Showers may develop over the Cascades Thursday night into Friday morning as the trough approaches and jet moves south overhead. Friday afternoon into Friday night, the trough axis amplifies off the coast and the flow turns more southerly over the PacNW, spreading deeper Pacific moisture over the region. As the trough works ashore, cold front will begin to work into western reaches of the CWA by Friday afternoon, then slowly work across the area through Friday night.
954 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Surface observations at 9 pm indicated a cold front moving south across portions of southeast WY and NE Panhandle. Recently cancelled the High Wind Warning for portions of southeast WY as Westerly winds have been slowly subsiding this evening, and this trend will continue tonight as the cold front moves south through the area. Upper level ridge will be in place with subsequent widespread subsidence and high pressure.
Band of precip enhanced by a jet max at the base of the trof has slid southward this evening with some snow over the Black Hills and rain over south central SD. Surface cold front has raced into the eastern Dakotas and northern NE where it is visible on satellite.
Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight. An upper trough just offshore on Friday will shift through the area and weaken over the weekend.
However, frontogenesis is weakening, so we do expect activity to diminish this evening as upper trough and jet slide east. To cover this added Sheridan Foothills to the high wind warning. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two until the cold front clears the area this afternoon.
1252 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Aviation High pressure today will give way to a system which will bring periods of precipitation Thursday into Friday.
1235 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 A front just to our south will remain nearly stationary this evening before beginning to return north as a warm front into Thursday. Low pressure will move across the area Thursday. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend. Temperatures Thursday, similar to today are not expected to increase all that much as they likely remain in the low 50s through the day. The upper flow pattern will push this low to the northeast as high pressure in the central US begins to ridge into the area Friday. Winds will increase during the day Friday with gusts between 20 and 25 mph, although a stronger 850 jet will likely remain to the north in NC and the Mid Atlantic with a delayed arrival of this high.
205 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 A strong cold front will bring about a chance of showers this afternoon.
/Issued 159 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast tonight as the upper level low over southwest Texas moves away. A cold front will move through the Panhandles around sunrise Thursday.
The rain is the result of an upper level low which currently over northeast Texas. The upper low is expected to track across north Mississippi later this morning. As the low moves out of the region, the rain showers will also move out of the Mid-South by this afternoon.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system currently in northern MN will begin approaching the area late this afternoon. Went on the higher end of model guidance for highs today as southwesterly flow ahead of fropa often leads to over- achieving temps. Additionally, we may see enough moisture in the low levels aid in the development of light rain/snow showers across the KY Bluegrass after midnight. A pool of low level moisture to our northwest Thursday night will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley on Friday coincident with an upper trough and some slight enhancement from flow off of Lake Michigan.
1139 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure extending from MO into central IL will keep conditions dry overnight. The high will move east, allowing winds to shift to the south late tonight. Another cold front will approach the area Thursday, with the winds becoming gusty ahead of the front from the south.
1045 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 VFR conditions, with a mix of IFR and MVFR, are currently scattered across the Four-States region as this low-pressure continues to move through the area. Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern zones to the upper 40s across our southern zones.
A cold front and upper trough could bring some light precipitation to parts of central Indiana this afternoon through Friday morning. However, some increase in clouds will occur this afternoon again along a cold front. The cold front and an approaching upper trough will bring some decent isentropic lift with it, but moisture is very limited. With some sunshine expected today, and some warm advection ahead of the cold front, NBM temperatures look a little cool, mainly south. The upper trough will move through the area during the night and into Friday morning. ) A strong pressure gradient develops late tonight and on Friday as high pressure begins to build into the area.
1114 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind. A deep upper level trough is expected to swing through the region Friday, bringing another round of light snow and rain, then quickly lift out over the weekend. High pressure moves in from OH tonight and the center of it should be overhead by mid morning. Model 900/850 temps support max temperatures in the 40s over the northern mountains and the low 50s in the southern valleys. A deep upper level trough will swing through the state Friday, with snow and rain showers beginning to work in from the west later Thu night. A deep trough will swing through the Commonwealth on Friday and attempt to tap into moisture from a system moving up the east coast.
137 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind. A deep upper level trough is expected to swing through the region Friday, bringing another round of light snow and rain, then quickly lift out over the weekend. High pressure moves in from OH tonight and the center of it should be overhead by mid morning. Model 900/850 temps support max temperatures in the 40s over the northern mountains and the low 50s in the southern valleys. A deep upper level trough will swing through the state Friday, with snow and rain showers beginning to work in from the west later Thu night. A deep trough will swing through the Commonwealth on Friday and attempt to tap into moisture from a system moving up the east coast.
So gusty winds across teh region appear favorable until late Thursday when the warmer air enters the picture from the west. Strong h850 winds Thursday morning will again create gusty northwest winds across the James River valley through early afternoon as another adiabatic linkage to the low level winds are expected. A cold front will sweep across the state this evening and tonight, bringing strong winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind the front, mainly in the low 30s to low 40s. scattered convective showers will continue to develop in the warm air advection regime as well as along the approaching cold front.
/issued 755 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Updated POP/wx grids earlier based on local 88Ds showing a fairly substantial lack of precip activity behind the cold front, currently situated from low pressure near Marsh Island and extending offshore. With that said, strong wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots has been observed along the leading edge of the cold front. The current thinking is that storm intensity is likely to wane after sunset although mid and upper level moisture will remain plentiful enough to fuel continued scattered showers through the night as the trailing upper trof moves across central and northern Louisiana.
Winds will become southerly after 06z once a high pressure center has shifted eastward, and the onset of weak warm air advection overnight may slow the rate of nocturnal cooling. Overnight lows should be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. Kanofsky A strong low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday behind the cold front.
1041 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Surface observations at 9 pm indicated a cold front moving south across portions of southeast WY and NE Panhandle. Recently cancelled the High Wind Warning for portions of southeast WY as Westerly winds have been slowly subsiding this evening, and this trend will continue tonight as the cold front moves south through the area. Upper level ridge will be in place with subsequent widespread subsidence and high pressure.
At the surface, a cold front will quickly slide southeast across our region this morning and exit south-central Missouri early this afternoon. Despite the passing front, we went slightly warmer than the model blend for today's highs as stronger cold air advection will lag the initial front. Highs over most areas will be in the lower 60s, with middle 60s across south-central Missouri where downslope may come into play. Low temperatures will be a bit cooler than we saw this morning with most areas falling into the lower 30s. Highs should range from the lower 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the middle and perhaps upper 50s near and west of the I-49 corridor. An upper level ridge will slowly slide east through the area this weekend resulting in dry and pleasant conditions.
Any fog will burn off in the morning as a cold front pushes across the area, swinging wind to the north and increasing speeds into the 15 to 25 knot range. Winds will turn back to the south and then west around midnight after the upper low has fully pushed eastward.
Mild temperatures prevail, trending warmer toward the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return for the weekend. Allowed the High Wind Warning to expire earlier this evening so there are currently no highlights out for anywhere in the Great Falls CWA. mpj Updated 433 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 (00Z TAF Period) Surface cold front has moved through much of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures trend cooler behind the cold front this evening as winds gradually decouple and settle down. Temperatures trend warmer Thursday and Friday as a broad upper level ridge passes through the region.
Lows overnight are still expected to fall into the lower 40s and upper 30s. A warm front to the south will send high and mid level clouds northward through the evening.
/issued 230 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ The upper low responsible for abundant rainfall this morning across the Permian Basin is beginning to shear out into an open wave over northwestern Texas at the moment. In its wake, increasing short wave ridging and drier air aloft should scatter out cloudiness tonight. Temperatures will be much warmer Thursday under ridging aloft and downsloping winds at the surface, and above normal readings are forecast to continue Friday.
With the unsettled conditions will come slightly cooler temperatures. Ahead of this wave, a broad area of WAA is occurring across the Plains within the developing lee-side trough. Even with the expansive cirrus shield over much of eastern Kansas, temperatures have still managed to warm into the low-60s. The above-mentioned cold front will cross northeast KS around daybreak Thursday, with a quick shift to northwesterly winds in its wake. High pressure moves overhead Thursday night as upper level ridging builds east into the central US. Martin SW flow aloft will develop across the central US over the weekend as the upper level ridge shifts east. At the SFC, return flow will quickly develop by late Friday as the lee-trough deepens.
103 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Dry conditions will settle in through Thursday morning before a strong cold front brings a chance of showers mainly during the afternoon.
Forecast confidence in fog at KROW is on the lower side, so included only MVFR conditions for now. As a low pressure system moves into Texas, mostly clear skies will continue to overtake New Mexico through the overnight. Dry conditions will prevail into the early part of the weekend with temperatures generally staying near to slightly above normal, even with a weak cold front sliding into the state from the northeast on Thursday.
155 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 08z surface analysis had low over northwest MN with cold front into southern WY to southern NE. High pressure over MT building southeast, pushing leftover precipitation out of the CWA. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, but seasonal.
This trend should continue through the day as the upper low tracks further E/NE with time. diminishing by this evening/tonight as high pressure builds down into the region from the Central Plains. With a cooler start, Fri high temperatures will likely be similar to that of today (despite the sunny skies).
Light snow will move out of the area by early afternoon with decreasing clouds as upper level ridging and subsidence starts to nudge in.
A cooler day is in store for the region and expect max temps to be about 10F cooler than yesterdays readings on the plains. Skies should remain clear and will have a synoptically enhanced upslope flow over the plains today as an area of high pressure slips down over the high plains. With an upslope flow, cooler air and a bit higher humidity, no fire weather issues are anticipated today over the region.
As the upper level trough approaches today will confine chance pops to the south and then to the southeast this afternoon.
The clipper will push a cold front through the area late this afternoon and tonight, and winds will increase ahead of it this afternoon from the southwest and west and then veer to northwest behind it tonight and Friday.
305 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 No major forecast concerns/highlights during the next several days with general upper-level ridging in control. A bit cooler today as we are in the post-frontal air mass, but clouds should clear along with decreasing precipitation chances over the next few hours with increasing subsidence.
641 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Rain returns today as a second wave of low pressure moves east along a front stalled to the south. Drier weather will return Friday as a cold front moves off the coast.
523 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 (Today and tonight) The mid/upper level low across the Arklatex will continue to move eastward today. High temperatures will actually be warmer than yesterday with the increased insolation. The primary sensible weather impact of the cold front will be a northerly wind shift and a brief period of gusty winds. By late to mid-morning, the 925 mb winds are progged to be ~35-40+ knots behind the cold front.
It will be sunny and dewpoints will fall behind the cold front resulting in afternoon RH values of 15 to 20 percent. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler behind the cold front, but we still should see highs in the 50s given the strong mixing. The big story will be the nice weather this weekend with a ridge of high pressure overhead, which will be the warmest weekend since last fall.
Still, this system will drive a cold front through the CWFA today with drier air settling in overnight into Friday morning.
628 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Low pressure will move across the area Today with widespread rain. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend. Upper low over the ArkLaTex this morning will approach the Southeastern States later today. Deep moisture ahead of the low with highest precipitable water 1. In-situ wedge in place across the region with surface pressure ridge centered to the north and low level northeast flow across the region. Strong moisture flux and isentropic lift this morning through the afternoon along with strong lift associated with approaching short wave trough will result in widespread rain. Temps falling into the low 40s. Low pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast will continue deepening and moving away from the region as high pressure builds in from the central US.
with a cold front trailing south across the Gulf of Mexico. Atlantic high pressure across FL and the eastern Gulf waters slowly eases east. High pressure slowly exits the waters as a cold front approaches from the west with southerly winds become southwesterly and increase into caution speeds at times.
Today Through Friday Night An upper level closed low is currently just south of AR. with ongoing SHRA lifting north over SRN AR underneath and just downstream of this upper low early this morning. with precip gradually decreasing in coverage as the upper low exits to the east. In the wake of the departing upper low. with a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air expected to move into the state tonight into Fri.
A weak cold front will move through the region early Friday morning, with an increasing NE wind developing. What's left of the upper level low across northeast Texas will continue to open and move quickly away from the region today. Weak ridging aloft is forecast to gradually build over the region tonight and Friday. At the surface a weak, re-enforcing cold front is forecast to move through the area early Friday morning.
415 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Low pressure will move across the area Today with widespread rain. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend. Upper low over the ArkLaTex this morning will approach the Southeastern States later today. Deep moisture ahead of the low with highest precipitable water 1. In-situ wedge in place across the region with surface pressure ridge centered to the north and low level northeast flow across the region. Strong moisture flux and isentropic lift this morning through the afternoon along with strong lift associated with approaching short wave trough will result in widespread rain. Temps falling into the low 40s. Low pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast will continue deepening and moving away from the region as high pressure builds in from the central US.
419 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 A cold front pushed through eastern Colorado this morning increasing northeasterly winds directly behind the front. This cloud cover will help to keep high temperatures much cooler today. Temperatures should struggle to reach the low 50s in Denver. With mid to upper level ridging developing overhead, there will be dry conditions through tonight. High pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado on Friday as the flow aloft transitions to more westerly.
Otherwise w-sw winds 10kts or less will shift to the n-ne between 18Z-21Z with a weak dry cold front.
Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a strong upper level trough moving into western Minnesota. This trough will dig southeast through the day today moving into the central Great Lakes by this evening. This trough will force a cold front through the CWA this morning. Upper level ridge will then build into the area for the weekend.
526 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A vigorous mid/upper trough over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early this morning is progged to dig SSE over the Upper Mississippi Valley area and into the Great Lakes area by tonight. The latest guidance had shifted this trough a bit closer to the Central Plains states today which will have a pretty big impact on our sensible weather. As high pressure settles south across the area tonight, strong radiational cooling is anticipated. a mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the central CONUS on Fri-Sat bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures to the forecast area.
Precip chances return Friday night into the weekend with accumulating snow across the higher elevations. Broad ridging covers the region providing clear skies early this morning. Slight cooling expected across the area today as the upper ridge axis shifts east resulting in minor height/thickness falls, and also allowing a return of onshore flow into the Central Valley. Changes take hold Friday as the approaching longwave trough brings an increase in cloud cover and cools temperatures off. While quick moving, the southern extension of this trough should bring a round of precipitation to NorCal beginning Friday night.
A cold front is expected to work through the region this morning and we could see some wind shear near the boundary (primarily speed shear from the NE). Still, this system will drive a cold front through the CWFA today with drier air settling in overnight into Friday morning.
(Today and tonight) The mid/upper level low across the Arklatex will continue to move eastward today. High temperatures will actually be warmer than yesterday with the increased insolation. The primary sensible weather impact of the cold front will be a northerly wind shift and a brief period of gusty winds. By late to mid-morning, the 925 mb winds are progged to be ~35-40+ knots behind the cold front.
328 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 08z surface analysis had low over northwest MN with cold front into southern WY to southern NE. High pressure over MT building southeast, pushing leftover precipitation out of the CWA. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, but seasonal.
A stalled cold front that left us with stormy conditions these last few days is now well south of the state. A closed mid-level low pressure system tracked across north Mexico into Texas and has now begun to weaken and become an open trough as it continues to track east across the ArkLaMiss early this morning. Once this trough swings through the southeast later today, winds will become light by the evening/night and low temperatures will be in the low 40s area-wide.
cooler temperatures and more importantly calmer winds over the region this morning in the wake of yesterdays front which is well southeast of the region. Stronger pressure falls upstream over Wash/Oregon keep the leeside troughing from enhancing too much but will see some afternoon gusts near 30 mph particularly west of Billings.
Dry and warm weather under an area of high pressure through Friday will give way to a weak disturbance quickly swinging across the area this weekend with increasing southwest breezes and a slight cooling trend.
425 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 No major forecast concerns/highlights during the next several days with general upper-level ridging in control. A bit cooler today as we are in the post-frontal air mass, but clouds should clear along with decreasing precipitation chances over the next few hours with increasing subsidence.
/issued 414 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move across the Big Country today bringing little change to the weather. In fact, temperatures will be warmer for this afternoon than yesterday despite the cold front.
Still looking at warmer than normal temps through Friday.
414 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move across the Big Country today bringing little change to the weather. In fact, temperatures will be warmer for this afternoon than yesterday despite the cold front.
By Friday, the amplified ridge axis will pass to our east allowing south to southwesterly flow to set up across much of the desert southwest.
An east-west oriented western Atlantic ridge axis reaching into the southern half of the Florida Peninsula will slowly retreat eastward today, as a low pressure system centered over the north central Gulf coast region races eastward, pulling an attendent cold front through the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. This cold front will clear our entire region by late Friday, followed by much cooler and drier air into this weekend. Precipitation wise, with the mid and upper level trough dampening out and remaining north of our region, low level confluence and increasing moisture withing a south to southwest flow, albeit light will prompt a broken swath of showers to cross the Florida Keys late Thursday night and Friday morning.