Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
628 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NE WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO IA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE PASSING TO OUR EAST. AND AHEAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
930 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER ERN NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION INVOLVING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL LESSEN POPS THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO EXPECTED DRYING THROUGH THE LAYERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY DAWN WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. IF THE LOW TRACKS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A BAND OF SHOWERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I- 94 OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
RAW NIGHT COMING UP AS INTERESTING NR TERM TAKING SHAPE DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE DEEP CYCLONE OVR ERN NE. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING. FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH STILL DRAGGING ITS WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID STATE TOMORROW AROUND MIDDAY. A WEAK 700MB TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE TN RIVER NOW MAY CAUSE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH ROUGHLY 1-2AM. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
534 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA). FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60. H5 CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN SOME WAYS WILL PLAY A ROLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN'T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
1035 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WAS PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
752 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
AT H5 NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW FROM SHERIDAN WYOMING TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA WITH MAIN CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SUPERIOR NEBRASKA. ALEUTIAN LOW WITH CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. POTENT OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS CLOUDS HAVE VACATED ALL BUT THE EXTREME EDGE OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 1025 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ LOW LEVEL TROF BISECTING THE AREA ROUGHLY IN HALF FROM NE TO SW. WITH IR SATELLITE DEPICTING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF THIS TROF AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA LATER TONIGHT AMID STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS CLOUDS HAVE VACATED ALL BUT THE EXTREME EDGE OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
/issued 218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the northeast.
CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW. AND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
821 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR.
Light showers associated with the upper low will clip the northern half of the CWA tonight with scattered showers but any rain will be light. The area will see a brief break with ridging aloft to bring the area a dry day on Thursday with highs in the 60s with light winds.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS SOME LOCALES BACK ACROSS NW MAINE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN'T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
830 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A tranquil and much cooler night is in store for the region. Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region.
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ACROSS OUR REGION, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURS MORNING. THE LOWEST CIGS/VIS AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF APPROACHES THE SUX AREA. CURRENT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERLAID WITH A WARMER LAYER ALOFT. GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
905 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016 Scattered showers over the mountains with light snow accumulations over the higher elevations. A little breezy behind this system on Thursday, then dry and warmer. other than that everywhere else looks dry, warmer and breezy.
1128 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 TONIGHT-THU: UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT AREA. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. -HOWERTON WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF EJECTS TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS WHILE GFS FILLS LOW WHILE LAGGING OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH CAVEAT THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IF DRIER/MORE DOWNSLOPE ECMWF VERIFIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SEEN OVER NORTHERN NAPA COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH LATE WEEK AND RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
847 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
A WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE WHAT BRINGS US OUR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
AM NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SO RIGHT NOW WILL HANDLE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER VIS WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 2KFT STAYING NEAR KMSL WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT TO THE EAST AS OF 05Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
Models still indicate showers and thunderstorms will be developing by late this afternoon and will continue into this evening as an area of low pressure surges out ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers and storms should be ending along and west of the Mississippi River by around midnight, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area by daybreak as the cold front pushes east of our region Thursday morning. ECMWF is a little slower with the cold front, but all the models in general have been a little off in the timing with this system, so will just go dry after 12z Thursday for now and make adjustments as needed. We should see a brief break in our unsettled weather pattern Thursday into Thursday night as a weak upper level ridge slides across the area.
A large upper level low over British Columbia. with a broad cyclonic flow emanating from the low across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
Deep layer high pressure will remain in control with mostly VFR conds overnight. Strong deep layer ridging will continue to be centered off the east coast of Florida through the short term.
A dry cold front will drop south across central Wyoming overnight, to near a KRIW- KCPR line by 12z Wednesday. Tonight Through Tuesday An upper level low pressure center over eastern British Columbia and western Alberta with a jet across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will continue to produce west southwest flow across western and central Wyoming. Very Gusty winds will occur from the high based convection with isolated wind gusts to 55 mph.
Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week. Any residual showers will cease from the west this morning as upper level heights begin to rise behind an exiting trough.
Dry and even warmer air will arrive for the remainder of the work week beginning Wednesday.
The elongated mid to upper level ridge paralleling 29N latitude will undergo little to no change through the remainder of the work week.
611 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the area today will weaken by wednesday.
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Put it in the books, the low temperature on July 4TH was only 85 degrees at the Key West airport which broke the warm minimum record of 84 which was set last year. Furthermore, there is a very good chance that the low temperature will only be 85 degrees for today, July 5th which would again break the all time warm minimum. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across South Central Florida, resulting in east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots except slightly higher on the Florida Straits.
Running through this there is a larger scale cold front pushing south across Wyoming which will likely be obscured by the convective details, or merge with them.
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Main forecast issue for the next several days will be the excessive heat as a broad upper ridge dominates the southern half of the country.
1107 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday night. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
On the heels of this impulse, an upper level trough will amplify to our west and push eastward through the day. The added forcing associated with the trough combined with daytime heating and 30kts of bulk shear will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially across the north. Most likely, the greatest coverage will come around mid day through mid to late afternoon as the trough is moving into the area. Temperatures remain muggy overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Currently, surface map has high pressure overhead with low pressure over SD. Increasing warm/moist southwest flow on the backside of the high and in advance of the low was producing scattered thunderstorm activity across the Dakotas into west central/central MN. Strong cap develops this afternoon ahead of approaching low and weak cold front from the Northern Plains. Looking for that incoming cold front to trigger storms across central MN on the axis of the higher-end CAPE/nose of 850mb moisture transport.
A weak cold front will sag southward into the region late tonight and Wednesday and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.
125 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall. The front will return northward as a warm front later Wednesday. High pressure to the south of New England will dominate tonight into Tuesday Morning. Later in the day Tuesday an upper level trough will pass to the north of the State. A weak upper level trough will cut across northeast Maine on Wednesday brining a chance of showers to mainly the crown of the state.
Good agreement from models regarding persistent upper- level ridge of high pressure over the southern U.
For today, unpleasant summertime conditions are expected today with some upper level ridging and 850 mb temperatures rising into the 21-25 degree C range.
A cold front associated with this system will drop south to along the Kansas and Nebraska border this evening.
A dry cold front will drop south across central Wyoming overnight, to near a KRIW- KCPR line by 12z Tuesday. Tonight Through Tuesday An upper level low pressure center over eastern British Columbia and western Alberta with a jet across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will continue to produce west southwest flow across western and central Wyoming. Very Gusty winds will occur from the high based convection with isolated wind gusts to 55 mph.
217 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Potent nw conus upper trough will shift east in the period, supporting more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with severe storms possible Wednesday. Temps will rise into the 80s and 90s today, warmest se areas where warmer profiles reside aloft. Ll moisture plume will recycle over the area tonight as an advecting pac nw upper trough supports a staunch pos theta-e burst over the fa under steep mid level lapse rates. Cooler temps expected most areas wed given moisture/rain/clouds with se flow.
401 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the area today will weaken by wednesday.
At the surface, weak ridging in place over the mid Mississippi Valley.
This cluster of storms has allowed a fairly strong outflow to surge south which at 8z was likely near Winner South Dakota north to the highway 14 corridor towards Minneapolis. With weak cold air advection on the north side of the front, it will be a slightly cooler day with highs mainly mid and upper 80s.
Some amplification will occur late in the period as a trough works into the Western Conus and the axis of troughing from Eastern Canada south into the Northeast pushes further east. This will lead to a ridge building across the Central CONUS initially. Several short wave troughs will traverse through the flow throughout the period. The model consensus is for the most significant of these to depart early in the period with the region mainly under the influence of mid level ridging extending across much of the Southern CONUS.
Otherwise, this weak cold front will continue sliding south, hanging up along the Laramie Range today. Flow backs a tad on Wednesday as trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
The other issue for the day time is as those warmer temperatures aloft are building in, on the leading edge where the atmosphere isn't capped off yet, strong isentropic ascent develops in the 305 to 310 layer. The threat of severe weather with this activity looks marginal at this time with shear being on the low side.
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A warm front will lift north and track east over the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build behind it on Tuesday, and a return to southerly flow will occur Tuesday night.
A front across the area will gradually fade away as weak high pressure builds in for Tuesday. Current temps across the area are generally in the low to mid 70s and will bottom out in the upper 60s.
Deep layer high pressure up to 500mb will remain centered just to the north of the northwestern Bahamas, with warm temperatures aloft and southwesterly flow prevailing.
In its wake, rising H5 heights on the order of 30+ DM, ridge their way overtop the FA, resulting in a nice warmup/soupup Wed and particularly Thu.
High pressure then settles off the Southeast Coast from mid week into the upcoming weekend. Hot and humid conditions expected today with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s near the coast. Dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s.
and Wednesday Northwest upper flow and weak ridge axis to our west should keep the forecast area dry through the afternoon, with the possible exception of the northcentral counties where some storms may arrive by late afternoon. Low level warm advection will make it quite a bit warmer than yesterday with highs about five degrees above normal. A weak cold front moves across the region Wednesday.
222 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Added slight chance for thunderstorms in northwestern and southwestern portions of the forecast area for isolated thunderstorms coming off the higher terrain of eastern Colorado. Low clouds and fog dissipated and moved out of the forecast area today as a warm front pushed eastward ahead of a deepening lee trough. Winds will be generally light this afternoon and evening, but as the lee trough deepens further along the eastern Colorado border through the day tomorrow, expect temperatures to warm well into the 90s and likely approach the century mark as winds turn more southerly and begin to increase ahead of the trough. As the upper flow begins to turn more southwesterly, a stronger short wave trough moves east of the Rockies and across the plains on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The stagnant weather pattern will continue through the short term as the elongated upper level high pressure system remains in place.
High pressure will briefly build into the region this evening.
320 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 The low/mid lvl thermal ridge will expand eastward across the Central Plains today resulting in rising temperatures. Mid lvl temperatures continue to rise supporting dry weather conditions and a continuation of excessive heat on Wed while a sagging cold front will bring increasing chances for storms late Thu.
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Low pressure over KY will move east of the forecast area tonight and move off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday. High pressure will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and move off the east coast Wednesday. High pressure moves across the Ohio valley and moves off the east coast Wednesday. Low pressure system moves into the western lakes late Wednesday lifting a warm front into the Ohio valley.
1140 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. Light zonal flow aloft will continue through tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the activity will be done by midnight. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak trough passing over northeast UT and northwest CO will keep isolate rain showers going until about 8 am then these will push east of the area. The flat ridge that has been over the area and southwest U. Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between high pressure over Texas and a persistent long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week. Any residual showers will cease from the west this morning as upper level heights begin to rise behind the exiting trough.
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through Wednesday while a TUTT cell will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Deep layer ridge will continue across the area and the associated subsidence and weak capping will keep afternoon storm coverage below average.
Ridging will build back in on Wednesday, with only small rain chances in the north and east, as a weak upper system passes by.
This could bust if the high dew point air remains in place. Afternoon high temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 90s.
This morning, a dynamic short wave trough will continue to wrap up and move eastward across the Panhandles through sunrise. For the rest of the week, very warm temperatures continue, with weak ridging holding on across the southern half of the central plains and Midwest.
The high valleys should see high temps around average, with readings in the 80s.
A deeper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend may bring an increase in breeziness and slightly cooler temperatures.