Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest estimate so far appears to be in southwest Saline county near Cordova with 2 inches. 5 inches of rain can be expected, with the highest amounts in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. In addition to rain, a cold front is current moving through the area. Winds will begin to weaken in the evening as the upper level low finally moves off to the east.
252 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 For tonight and Thursday, the longwave trough over the Plains will move slowly east. For tonight, the highest rain chances will be west of the Mississippi River. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin and be in the lower and mid-40s across the remainder of the area. The highest totals will be west of the Mississippi River and in southwest Wisconsin.
314 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 High pressure with dry and seasonal weather through tomorrow.
333 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A large longwave trough extends from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast, with strong jet energy associated with it. Rainfall amounts have turned out to be at the higher end of guidance: nearly an inch fell at Aberdeen.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 60 51 58 52 / 60 90 80 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 64 52 58 51 / 30 80 90 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 45 62 51 57 50 / 30 90 90 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 61 51 58 47 / 10 70 90 80 60 TN.
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure moves east.
Behind the trough across the west and into portions of the central, we have seen rapid clearing and these trends will continue to the east through the rest of the day and tonight. With a mostly clear sky overhead tonight, expect slightly cooler lows, in the 30s. Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs similar to today (warmer across the east than today), generally in the low to mid 50s.
253 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Pronounced long wave trough currently running through the central US with a strung out meridional flow of persistent DPVA. As the trough axis shifts east into the evening hours, should also see this area of rain shift east as well, likely focused east of I-29 after midnight and confined to near a Storm Lake to Windom line by the daybreak hours Thursday.
Tongue of moisture spreading north ahead of mid level trough continues to feed rain shower activity this afternoon. Overnight temps will range from low 30s west where some clearing occurs to in the low 40s east with clouds and precip lingering. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and mixing will see temps rise into the low 50s tomorrow.
Riding building over the area will keep drier conditions present into the weekend, though moisture riding along the ridge could generate a few showers along the northern border of the forecast area.
Expect these lingering showers to continue through the night before finally tapering off tomorrow morning as slightly warmer air moves in aloft. Elsewhere, high pressure builds in allowing for a slow warming and drying trend through the short term periods.
140 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Cool and dry weather will prevail as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes today and tonight.
Southerly flow from the Gulf, was producing rain from the coast to the Canadian border as the storm system in the plains pushes against an amplified ridge located over the Appalachians. The tight surface pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the east, will allow for gusty surface winds through the period as well.
Showers will continue to spread north ahead of the trough bringing widespread rainfall to the area. Moisture is spreading north as sfc-500 mb flow from south to north ahead of deep trough over the central plains. As precipitation moves north the trough will edge east so that this aftn the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of the Red River valley over NW/WC MN.
Recent radar trends show additional development near the eastward advancing cold front currently from Osage county into southeast OK. Still not out of the question to see a brief strong storm as the colder temps associated with the upper low spread east, but the overall severe weather chances remain very low. Strong northwesterly winds will develop behind the exiting cyclone, and will go ahead with a Wind Advisory for all of eastern OK beginning late tonight and continue through Thursday.
The upper level trof axis was a tad farther west across the central and southern Plains.
A developing area of low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies will continue to deepens a bit as it moves slowly towards the Mid Mississippi River Valley by Thursday morning. A large area of high pressure just to the east of Hudson Bay will continue to ridge through the Great Lakes and slow the aforementioned low pressure's movement towards the east.
Valley areas may fall into the lower 30s, while remainder of the area in the middle 30s to near 40.
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 An anomalous mid-latitude cyclone will continue to move slowly eastward across the MS Valley over the next 48 hours, bringing widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the Mid-South. Strong meridional flow will enhance poleward moisture flux downstream of the trough axis, with PWATs progged to peak around 1. This slow-moving trough will continue to deepen as it moves into the TN Valley, closing off into a 545 dam cut-off low.
102 PM MST Wed Oct 27 2021 Drier, cooler weather has settled into the area, but temperatures will quickly warm again during the second half of the week as high pressure builds back into the region. Strong subsidence under increasing high pressure aloft remains present today as the deep trough continues to track eastward through the Southern Plains. This subsidence along with warming aloft is allowing temperatures to recover somewhat under nearly cloudless skies this afternoon with lower desert highs heading up into the high 70-low 80 range. As the high pressure ridge continues to spread over the Southwestern U. 6 SD above climo), the warming will be more tangible, with forecast highs reaching into the upper 80s across the lower deserts.
A strong high amplitude upper trough was situated over the Great Plains. A well defined warm conveyor belt was observed ahead of the trough extending from a severe MCS in the northwestern Gulf and western LA, northward into KS and the northern Plains where lighter rains were occurring. An upper low will emerge from the trough tonight and shift east into AR by early Thursday morning. The warm conveyor belt consisting of a strong low level jet and moisture transport will produce widespread showers from the lower MO valley into the TN valley and deep South late this evening into the overnight hours. The highest gusts will occur in the higher terrain, where 40+ mph gusts will be possible. The upper low will become stacked near or around the MO bootheel Thursday afternoon and evening.
the latter especially across the higher elevations. A relatively mild night given all those clouds, with most areas struggling to drop out of the lower and middle 40s. A developing area of low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies will continue to deepens a bit as it moves slowly towards the Mid Mississippi River Valley by Thursday morning. A large area of high pressure just to the east of Hudson Bay will continue to ridge through the Great Lakes and slow the aforementioned low pressure's movement towards the east.
The upper trough will continue to strengthen off to our west, and the LLJ will ramp up as well.
showers and thunderstorms are moving into the area as a strong upper trough and associated cold front approach. Little has changed as far as the severe potential, with the Highway 84 corridor continuing to look like the area with the best potential for severe storms. The severe risk will end later this evening with the cold front exiting the area soon after midnight. Cooler air will usher in behind the boundary, with highs on Thursday ranging from the low 60s in the Delta to around 70 across the Pine Belt. Much of the day will be dry across the ArkLaMiss, but upper troughing will deepen over the area on Thursday, with increasing chances for light rain starting by the late afternoon, especially for areas north of I-20.
A large longwave trough extends from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast, with strong jet energy associated with it. Rainfall amounts have turned out to be at the higher end of guidance: nearly an inch fell at Aberdeen.
For the remainder of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, expect dry conditions to continue through Thursday along with decreasing clouds as an upper ridge develops across the region.
Chambers Crazy Mountain RAWs has consistently been gusting above 58 mph, signaling the higher winds aloft, but it's taken until ~1pm to really see some 50+ mph gusts mix down to the surface. Thursday will be pretty mild as upper ridging builds across the region.
618 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Pronounced long wave trough currently running through the central US with a strung out meridional flow of persistent DPVA. As the trough axis shifts east into the evening hours, should also see this area of rain shift east as well, likely focused east of I-29 after midnight and confined to near a Storm Lake to Windom line by the daybreak hours Thursday.
737 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure moves east.
1015 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure moves east.
650 PM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021 The upper low continues to slowly move east this afternoon with the upper ridge expected to push the low into the MS River Basin tomorrow afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected to linger through Thursday while the ridge pushes into the High Plains. Wind chills tonight could drop into the lower 20s west of the Colorado border to around freezing east of US-83. The ridge is expected to move into the area Thursday afternoon, which will gradually decrease the winds from west to east tomorrow evening.
This is in response to the passage of a deep upper trof and assocd strong sfc cyclone now located in the Arklatex. Light winds and excellent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plunge into the low 40s and even a few 30s across southeast New Mexico and the Davis Mountains. Model temps seem a bit too warm in regards to low temps in some locations and have opted to blend with the ECS which is still on board with freezing temperatures in Marfa. Tomorrow will remain cool and dry as the upper trof continues to progress into the Tennessee Valley. Highs will top out a few degrees below normal, mainly in the lower 70s. Another chilly night is expected tomorrow night with near freezing temperatures possible again in Tatum and Marfa.
Drier, cooler weather has settled into the area, but temperatures will quickly warm again during the second half of the week as high pressure builds back into the region. Strong subsidence under increasing high pressure aloft remains present today as the deep trough continues to track eastward through the Southern Plains. This subsidence along with warming aloft is allowing temperatures to recover somewhat under nearly cloudless skies this afternoon with lower desert highs heading up into the high 70-low 80 range. As the high pressure ridge continues to spread over the Southwestern U. 6 SD above climo), the warming will be more tangible, with forecast highs reaching into the upper 80s across the lower deserts.
655 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 For tonight and Thursday, the longwave trough over the Plains will move slowly east. For tonight, the highest rain chances will be west of the Mississippi River. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin and be in the lower and mid-40s across the remainder of the area. The highest totals will be west of the Mississippi River and in southwest Wisconsin.
/issued 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/ An anomalous mid-latitude cyclone will continue to move slowly eastward across the MS Valley over the next 48 hours, bringing widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the Mid-South. Strong meridional flow will enhance poleward moisture flux downstream of the trough axis, with PWATs progged to peak around 1. This slow-moving trough will continue to deepen as it moves into the TN Valley, closing off into a 545 dam cut-off low.
854 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A low pressure system located over western AR and eastern OK will continue to push eastward tonight. Ahead of it, a cold front stretching along the MS/AL state line from the Gulf Coast northward towards the AL/TN state line. SFC obs show a warm front in southwest AL that has kept the warmer and more unstable airmass well to our south this evening. As the aformentioned low pressure system gets closer to the area later tonight, gradient winds increase considerably. The upper low will become stacked near or around the MO bootheel Thursday afternoon and evening.
218 PM PDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Quieter weather with dry and warmer conditions through late week.
Places further inland may yet see temps reach into the low to mid 60s, with the diurnal cloud cover possibly limiting the warming that is going on at the sfc this afternoon. A deep mid-level open wave trough over the central CONUS slowly shifts northeastward Tuesday night.
300 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region is providing a continuation of dry weather and seasonably cool, but rather pleasant conditions in the presence of light winds. Thicker higher level cloudiness has suppressed temps into the lower 60s over portions of northeast and east central Iowa into extreme northwest Illinois. Highs Tuesday will follow similarly to that of today with temps being held down in the lower 60s where more cloudiness (W/SW) with mid 60s to around 70 where ample sunshine (favored E/SE).
Winds are generally out of the NE at 5-10 mph as high pressure across the Great Lakes controls the low level flow. Tonight, drier air in the low-to-mid levels will try to work its way into southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. With cool NE flow in place, but cloud cover keeping temperatures somewhat milder, expect temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 50s across the region by tomorrow morning. Highs should range from the mid-70s to the lower-80s. Unsettled weather is expected heading into the latter half of the week, with an upper low progged to close off over the OK/TX Panhandle Tue night and then take its sweet time moving eastward across the Southern Plains.
Another warmer than normal night is on tap and despite the stalled cold front to the southeast as morning lows will be in the mid to upper 60s at most locations. Tuesday the stalled frontal boundary will return north as a weak warm front associated with a developing low pressure system over the Plains.
Depending on how thick/widespread those clouds are (and how quick they arrive), temps tonight may end up being warmer than fcst with frost less of a threat. Still dry and a few degrees warmer on Tuesday with sfc ridging still in place. --Wet Mid to Late Week Period-- Latest 12Z guidance has continued the theme of closing off the mid week upper low over MO leading to a slower/less progressive solution.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Key Messages: - Rain showers likely midweek - Weekend warmup Midweek rain showers: Cool, dry, and calm conditions today with high pressure overhead will be replaced by a much more dynamic weather system as we approach midweek. The upper level short wave trough currently located over northern Utah will weaken as it approaches the region tomorrow, but still provide a push of positive vorticity advection across the forecast area (23.
Temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the low 40s with a few upper 30s across some of our western zones as skies clear off from west to east.
Rain is continuing across the forecast area late this morning mostly light to moderate as low pressure area that was along the Gulf coast near Mobile early this morning has moved northeast into northern Georgia late this morning. The most unstable airmass is east of the low pressure area in South Carolina where heavy rainfall is occurring with thunderstorms. The low pressure area is forecast to move east and northeast toward the southern Appalachians by early evening so an increase of precipitation should occur in eastern areas this afternoon into early evening. Lowered QPF amounts western areas but kept the higher totals east and southeast. Some downslope winds are still keeping cigs at VFR levels at TYS and TRI, but should change by mid afternoon as rain increases with low pressure moving into east Tennessee.
Discussion: Low pressure was now located over northeast Georgia at mid afternoon. Patchy fog will form after the rain ends as temperatures cool to the dew points which will be in the lower 60s.
Overnight lows will be a bit on the cooler side with light northeasterly winds.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper trough over SD/NE this afternoon extends SW back to AZ and will move across NM tonight into the Panhandle. On Tuesday a closed low will develop in the base of the trough over CO/NM and it will roll into Wrn OK/KS Tuesday night. A cold front will move down into the area late tonight and early Tuesday. The best chance for rain with this event will be the rest of this afternoon and this evening over the Lower Trans Pecos and NE Permian Basin.
718 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend. Mid level ridging across the region will shift off to the east through Tuesday night ahead of an upper level trough/low moving through the central US. A potent low pressure system will impact the region for the first few days of the period. A cold front trailing the low will lie nearly parallel to the meridional upper flow, contributing to the rather slow progress of the cold front.
1024 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge is centered north of the Bahamas and off the southeast Atlantic coast. Dew points will remain in the lower 70s. A ridge off the southeastern United States coast will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Precip coverage will increase during the afternoon as an upper system advances into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
A deepening upper level trough will exit the lee of the Rockies and quickly tracks from Kansas into Nebraska during the daytime hours.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a sprawling area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Otherwise, the high pressure to remain in firm control of our weather as it stretches from the Upper MS Valley, over the Great Lakes, into southeast Canada. The high pressure is expected to slowly drift to the east on Monday and still be the main weather feature over northeast WI.
Surface dewpoints in the advisory area were still around freezing so there is some potential for colder temperatures there is they can radiate enough. Depending on how thick/widespread those clouds are (and how quick they arrive), temps tonight may end up being warmer than fcst with frost less of a threat. Still dry and a few degrees warmer on Tuesday with sfc ridging still in place. --Wet Mid to Late Week Period-- Latest 12Z guidance has continued the theme of closing off the mid week upper low over MO leading to a slower/less progressive solution.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A low pressure system moving to the south of the forecast area today will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times to Wibaux County. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer as the cold air that brought freezing temperatures for lows over the weekend moves to the east.
5 inch range, but the higher totals and the higher rainfall rates have been maintained to the west of the area with a continued weakening trend overall the farther east the storms progress. (Tomorrow through Monday) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper low approaches from the west, with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
An area of low pressure is over Alabama and will move northeast over the next couple of days. The good news is that the high pressure ridging over Florida will keep any associated weather with this system well to our north. The high pressure will also keep a predominant ESE flow over the area with the seabreeze developing along the west coast each afternoon and pushing inland. 7 inches, which will keep rain and storm chances on the low side (20-40 percent). By mid-week, an area of low pressure develops over the central U. The low and associated frontal boundary will traverse eastward bringing increasing rain chances for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
Overnight temperatures tonight will be warmer compared to the last few nights due to increased clouds and subtle WAA entering the region.
908 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Little in the way of sensible weather tonight with expansive high pressure overhead. None the less, latest raw guidance suggests some locally colder temperatures to near freezing or just a touch below -- have made some minor tweaks to overnight low temperatures, primarily in the typically cooler/interior icebox locales. Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over most of the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Temps continue to warm thru the 50s toward afternoon highs in the lower 60s. The combination of all of the above will likely drop temps to or just above freezing for much of our CWA.
Upper ridging on Tue may allow some thinning of the clouds with periods of at least filtered sunshine. The rain will then hold off for much of srn WI until late Tue nt or Wed AM as low pressure and a warm front approaches from the south. High pressure will largely remain in control through Tuesday.
The upper ridge centered well offshore continues to move slowly towards the coast. The upper ridge will continue to build with the axis moving closer to the coast into the week. The thermal trough along the coast under the upper ridge is deepening today, with offshore flow increasing near the coast tonight. As the upper ridge axis moves closer to the coast, temperatures will continue to increase.
Overnight lows will be in the low 70s under partly cloudy skies. A high pressure ridge centered over the Florida peninsula will remain over the area.
600 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue its eastward movement overnight, with return flow beginning late in the night and continuing Tuesday. The upper air pattern features a broad trof over the CONUS and an active southwest flow pattern over our region. The HiRes guidance hints at mid level support lifting north across AR Tuesday night out ahead of the parent upper trof over the Plains. This will result in a higher chance of showers and storms with the highest chance over the west 1/2 of the area into SEMO.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over most of the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Temps continue to warm thru the 50s toward afternoon highs in the lower 60s. The combination of all of the above will likely drop temps to or just above freezing for much of our CWA.
Otherwise, temperatures were in the 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. The Hi-Res models indicate thunderstorms developing as a cold front moves south. Expect warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s across the Concho Valley.
High pressure over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region is providing a continuation of dry weather and seasonably cool, but rather pleasant conditions in the presence of light winds. Thicker higher level cloudiness has suppressed temps into the lower 60s over portions of northeast and east central Iowa into extreme northwest Illinois. Highs Tuesday will follow similarly to that of today with temps being held down in the lower 60s where more cloudiness (W/SW) with mid 60s to around 70 where ample sunshine (favored E/SE).