Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
454 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. A split flow pattern will persist into Tuesday as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers are possible, mainly during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slowly advance into the area late this evening and stall across the area on Tuesday. As the upper low evolves tonight, increasing upper level forcing will bring another round of heavy rainfall to the region after midnight tonight through the morning on Tuesday.
This is a result of our position mostly to the west of the cut off upper-level low set to linger over the Lower Mississippi River Valley until the end of the week.
138 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region this morning and a ridge in the Rockies. The ridge moves east into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue with the trough moving into the eastern U. Will go with more persistent clouds today into tonight than previous forecast had due to dry air being slower to move in and will change low temperatures in the far west to a bit warmer than previous forecast had in there because of the clouds.
1135 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 (Issued 1135 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021) Low pressure over Lower MI will continue to fill into tnt as an upper ridge builds from the nrn Great Plains into the nrn Great Lakes. Gehring (Issued 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021) Today through Tuesday: Clouds will hang on today into Tuesday as low pressure departs and high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest. There's a better chance for some peeks of sun Tuesday, especially in the north towards the high.
This pattern will include high pressure that will be centered over Quebec.
A ridge is building over eastern Montana and the Dakotas today, setting up southwest flow coming into the region the next few days. Under that ridge, Missoula and Kalispell are expected to reach near record high temperatures Tuesday.
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will produce a west to northwest wind flow across our region today. The high- res nam and 06z hrrr are among the models that generate some isolated to scattered showers along this secondary front this afternoon. Tonight will be partly cloudy and a bit cooler. A rather strong 500 mb closed low is forecast to form over the lower Mississippi Valley by 12z Tuesday.
This afternoon through Tuesday night Winds will turn more southwesterly today, as the upper level ridge shifts eastward over the Plains.
Area of high pressure and hot temperatures remain in control across the region.
335 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
The period will begin active as an upper level low spins across the Lower Mississippi Valley this will send waves northward leading to periods of showers and thunderstorms.
This pattern will include high pressure that will be centered over Quebec. A broad area of upper level ridging will span across much of the Mid- West and East coast with an embedded closed low across the lower Mississippi Valley.
It is possible, looking at some of the models, that coastal LA will not see as much rainfall as is forecast over the next couple of days if the low progresses eastward a bit more quickly. But most of the model consenus has the low lingering a bit more into tomorrow and tomorrow evening, so it is more likely that the rainfall will be along the easternmost portions of SE Louisiana and along coastal MS.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a negatively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region down through the Lower MS River Valley. A pronounced vort max is currently digging across OK/AR/TX as it rounds the base of the trough. This piece of energy will pinch off from the trough tonight, becoming a closed low.
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area is progged to weaken while another mid/upper trough develops across the Mississippi Valley area through tonight and into Tuesday. As this developing mid/upper trough deepens it is progged to lift northward over the Middle Mississippi Valley area towards the middle of the week.
This will result in cooler conditions overnight, as well as on Tuesday.
255 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A strong ridge remains centered over our region today with well above normal temperatures and dry weather continuing.
1136 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Across the region this morning, high pressure over the central Plains is providing clear skies area-wide. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, along with the current mid level water vapor imagery, is showing a building amplified ridge over the Rockies making a slow shift eastward towards the Plains region. There is an upper low over the Great Lakes region, and another off Baja California. Latest guidance for the short term period keeps the upper ridge in place over the Tri-State area.
High temperatures will slowly increase as the ridge builds. Today will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with widespread mid 80s expected. Tomorrow should be a carbon copy of today with high temperatures once again in the mid 80s for most, though maybe a touch warmer than Monday, and lows cooling down into the 50s.
An upper level ridge will remain over the forecast area throughout the work week. A more prominent low pressure system will take shape off to our southeast along the lower Mississippi river.
202 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U. However as the upper trough deepens to our west, the primary synoptic forcing will continue to remain north and west of our area.
SNELSON Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 73 65 75 65 / 40 90 90 100 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 74 64 76 64 / 10 90 80 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 74 64 75 63 / 10 80 70 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 77 63 77 62 / 10 70 50 70 80.
1134 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper ridge expands across Colorado today, then begins to drift slowly eastward tonight. Low and mid levels will continue to dry today, and expect only some shallow convective cloudiness over the higher mountain peaks in the afternoon. Generally clear and cool overnight, and a few high mountain valleys could again drop to near freezing by early Tuesday morning. - Troughing of varying deepness and track decide who gets moisture and who does not. Waiting for the next trough of low pressure to begin influencing our sensible weather across the west. Another warm day expected across the lower elevations.
The upper level blocking over eastern Canada has finally given way and allowed the ridge to shift east. The upper level trough that had undercut the ridge over the western Great Lakes has cut off and is beginning to to sink southward, it is is expected to be over the southern Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Rockies and high plains will build east, extending into the U. Have brought the low temps tonight up to the warmer blended solution due to lingering clouds cover.
Light northerly winds will persist through the afternoon, importing some dew points in the low to mid-50s into our far northwestern zones and reinforcing pleasant, slightly warmer than average conditions area wide with highs in the mid-80s expected. A nearby upper low over MS will spin some middeck toward KMLU overnight.
215 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A beautiful afternoon is underway across the region as temperatures nose into the low to mid 80s under mostly clear skies and light winds. An upper level low currently just to our east will meander around the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next couple of days, keeping us in relatively dry northerly flow.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a positively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region down through the Lower MS River Valley. A pronounced vort max is currently digging across OK/AR/TX as it rounds the base of the trough. This piece of energy will pinch off from the trough tonight, becoming a closed low.
The upper level pattern features an upper level closed low to the north across the Ohio River Valley. This will lead to another closed low developing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley later today and into tonight.
115 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Temperatures this morning will start off cool in the lower 50s with some areas in northern MO seeing temps in the lower 40s. Weather today will be dry and pleasant as an upper level trough slides to our east, bringing in northerly winds at all levels and keeping temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Upper trof/low will be positioned over the Mississippi Valley for the next couple days resulting in a dry n/nw flow aloft locally.
However, concur with deterministic runs that mesoscale/synoptic descent associated with an upper trough/low, will force the boundary, followed by drier air, southward across the CWA this afternoon/evening. VFR conditions will persist through the 12z TAF cycle as a dry air and high pressure settles in behind a frontal boundary that is moving across the area this morning. A cold front is currently draped across a line from Del Rio to just south of Victoria. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s along the coast and in the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Dry air and high pressure will settle in behind the front, causing a decrease in cloud cover as the day progresses.
218 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 An upper level low was currently in the process of closing off over Arkansas this afternoon with a ridge of high pressure from southwest to northeast from the four corners region into the northern plains. The low will eventually become cut off late tonight into Tuesday and is expected to meander over Arkansas and southeast MO into the later part of the week. The chance for showers/thunderstorms will be the main focus as this low slowly tracks to the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s tonight with the warmer readings in northeast portions of the CWA where there will be more cloud cover.
Northerly flow aloft on the backside of an upper low over Arkansas will persist through tomorrow.
1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Very strong upper level ridging is expected to remain in place across the central US through the short term. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s with the warmest temperatures across northern Nebraska (north of US-20). Dry conditions remain in place through the end of the week as the upper level ridge slowly slides eastward.
1007 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper ridge axis is nearly overhead this morning with very quiet weather. A ridge of high pressure will stretch from New Mexico into the Upper Midwest today. The fire danger will be elevated due to the low rh values across the plains which will drop below 15 percent this afternoon, but this will be offset by mostly light and variable surface winds. The upper level ridge axis remains in place across eastern Colorado Tuesday leading to another warm and dry day.
An upper level trough, extending from TX to the lower Mississippi Valley, is predicted by the ECMWF/GFS/NAM to transition to a cut- off low late tonight/Tuesday, with the center meandering over the ARLATEX region. Owing to significantly drier conditions tonight, expect cooler temperatures tonight with lows generally 60-65F, and maximum temperatures mid 80s to the lower 90s Tuesday, similar to the SREF ensemble mean values.
Benign weather continues in the short term as upper ridging continues over the forecast area. Upper low, currently off the coast of northern Baja California, will translate northeastward to western Arizona by Tuesday evening. As this occurs, an elongated upper ridge will remain in place over a NM-NE-WI axis. Thus, despite the presence of the upper ridge, temperatures around or a bit below normal are expected given the both modest wind speeds and favored upslope orientation of the winds.
1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Dry subsident northerly flow aloft just east of a sharp upper level ridge axis over New Mexico. /issued 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ Another fine day is on tap for West Texas as we will be positioned beneath amplifying ridging and on the western periphery of a developing closed low across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Isolated showers have developed this afternoon extending from the Wabash Valley into the Kentucky Pennyrile as a weak trough/frontal feature moves through the forecast area.
250 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Mostly sunny skies under high pressure has led to milder temperatures above seasonable levels today. This low currently spinning just off the SoCal coastline will open up and track through the Desert Southwest Tuesday afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon out ahead of this low as PWAT levels increase towards 0. It will not take long for top down saturation to commence as forcing from this low lifts across the Four Corners region Tuesday evening and overnight, allowing for widespread coverage of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Still anticipate a couple inches of the white stuff could fall over the higher peaks above pass level, favoring the San Juans with lesser amounts among the higher peaks of the West Elks and Sawatch Range, with rain below that 11kft level.
MaxTs will trend slightly cooler with 24hr deltas of -5F or less. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are still a few to several degrees warmer than average for early October. A moist easterly flow around the high from the Atlantic should bring low clouds and perhaps some pockets of light rain/dz late Tuesday night into Wed.
1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A weak coastal trough will approach the area late tonight, before moving onshore Tuesday. High pressure will build inland later in the weekend. Latest run of the HRRR indicates that showers will begin to develop over the marine zones during the pre-dawn hours as a coastal trough drift westward.
An upper level low was currently in the process of closing off over Arkansas this afternoon with a ridge of high pressure from southwest to northeast from the four corners region into the northern plains. The low will eventually become cut off late tonight into Tuesday and is expected to meander over Arkansas and southeast MO into the later part of the week. The chance for showers/thunderstorms will be the main focus as this low slowly tracks to the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s tonight with the warmer readings in northeast portions of the CWA where there will be more cloud cover.
802 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. A split flow pattern will persist into Tuesday as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers are possible, mainly during the afternoon.
A cold front will bring a chance of light rain, mainly north of Cape Mendocino Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier weather with occasionally breezy conditions are expected behind the front before another front approaches late in the week.
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area is progged to weaken while another mid/upper trough develops across the Mississippi Valley area through tonight and into Tuesday. As this developing mid/upper trough deepens it is progged to lift northward over the Middle Mississippi Valley area towards the middle of the week.
/Issued 358 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a positively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region down through the Lower MS River Valley. A pronounced vort max is currently digging across OK/AR/TX as it rounds the base of the trough. This piece of energy will pinch off from the trough tonight, becoming a closed low.
914 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 (Issued 914 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021) High pressure continues to gradually move into the Great Lakes Region tonight.
400 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. Today-Tuesday night: With the Tri-State area beneath an upper level ridge -- above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds will persist.
807 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U.
/issued 255 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ Upper level trough over the eastern U.
There is a weak trough to our northwest with an axis center over the Mississippi River Delta and north central Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a ridge lies to our northeast, which the combination of the two is leading to lighter winds than in days prior.
333 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Dry air mass and lack of support/focus with upper ridge in place will support dry weather during the period. Near freezing temps are once again possible in the mountain valleys early Tuesday morning, with above normal temps returning Tuesday. Upper ridge expected to shift east at the start of the period, as upper trough lifts across the western CONUS.
A weak low pressure system will approach southern California and bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern Kern County this evening through early Tuesday morning. A Pacific storm system is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation later this week.
Can't rule out a stray shower or two at KELD/KMLU after 05/18z, due to their proximity to the upper low. This is a result of our position mostly to the west of the cut off upper-level low set to linger over the Lower Mississippi River Valley until the end of the week.
/issued 221 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ Northerly flow aloft will continue into Tuesday with upper level low pressure lodged across the lower Mississippi Valley and an upper ridge axis from eastern New Mexico across the central high plains. RMcQueen Overall the week looks to remain quiet as upper ridging dominates the region. An upper low will stay positioned to our east through at least mid week as it is stuck in a blocking pattern. Overall this upper low will not influence our weather.
Lone quiet period of wx this workweek evolves during the short term period once the fog burns off and the low stratus scatters out by the afternoon. Have brought in slight chance and chance PoPs to areas near/south of the OH Rvr toward sunset and beyond as SCT SHRA will be slower to advance north as the stacked/closed low begins its slow meander into the OH Vly for midweek and beyond.
Isolated showers have developed this afternoon extending from the Wabash Valley into the Kentucky Pennyrile as a weak trough/frontal feature moves through the forecast area.
312 PM PDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A weak low pressure system will approach southern California and bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern Kern County this evening through early Tuesday morning. A Pacific storm system is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation later this week.
Cooling trend starts tonight as onshore winds return with low clouds spreading inland by Tuesday morning leading to cooler temperatures Tuesday afternoon.
Latest GOES water vapor imagery shows the upper low now approaching the ArkLaMiss region. This low is forecast to close off by Tuesday afternoon as it is centered over the ArkLaMiss. /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing upper low digging south into the Red River valley at midafternoon. A well-defined dry slot/subsidence band was evident around the southern periphery of the low, while the beginnings of a baroclinic leaf were evident in the downstream diffluent flow over the Midsouth. Over northeast MS, fog may be more in the form of elevated stratus, northwest of an inverted surface trof from east central MS to north central AL.
/Issued 215 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ A beautiful afternoon is underway across the region as temperatures nose into the low to mid 80s under mostly clear skies and light winds. An upper level low currently just to our east will meander around the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next couple of days, keeping us in relatively dry northerly flow.
High pressure will prevail across the region, with its center sliding slowly eastward from atop MN/WI into the Great Lakes through tomorrow. The effectively negligent advection, both in terms of temperature and moisture due to deep ridging at the surface and aloft, spells light winds across the area through the short-term period, keeping a very similar environment in place.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. The region will be between high pressure to the northeast, and an area of low pressure to the west this period.
Weak upper trofiness will remain overhead, as the closed low near Toledo ejects out, but a wave diving into Arkansas closes off to take over. Will stay dry Tue morning, but as the day progresses the upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley will push a warm front north and west into central Kentucky. Cut-off low, weatherman's woe. This old adage will certainly ring true throughout the rest of the work week as a cut- off low slowly drifts from the Lower MS Valley up into the OH Valley resulting in daily rain shower and thunderstorm chances, mostly diurnally driven, before upper ridging moves in from the west providing southern Indiana and central KY with a dry weekend.
/issued 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing upper low digging south into the Red River valley at midafternoon. A well-defined dry slot/subsidence band was evident around the southern periphery of the low, while the beginnings of a baroclinic leaf were evident in the downstream diffluent flow over the Midsouth. Over northeast MS, fog may be more in the form of elevated stratus, northwest of an inverted surface trof from east central MS to north central AL.
As lows dip into the lower 60s. Lone quiet period of wx this workweek evolves during the short term period once the fog burns off and the low stratus scatters out by the afternoon. Have brought in slight chance and chance PoPs to areas near/south of the OH Rvr toward sunset and beyond as SCT SHRA will be slower to advance north as the stacked/closed low begins its slow meander into the OH Vly for midweek and beyond.
Another quiet evening and overnight in store for the northern plains with 500mb ridging and clear skies. Temperatures will again climb well above normal with highs in the low 80s valley and west with mid 70s to the east which is 15 to 20 degrees above the normal values.
514 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending from the Four Corners north/northeast through the Northern Plains, with upper trof just offshore the Pac NW. Nearly cut-off low is noted offshore southern CA with secondary and weaker low over far northern UT. At the surface, broad trof covers the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Upper low currently over far northern UT will shift through the Northern Rockies tonight, with surface trof becoming more pronounced and lifting through eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas. Thermal ridge then builds overhead on Tuesday, resulting in temps being a few degrees warmer than today.
Quiet day so far across the mid state, with a brief break in the rain as the next trough in the Plains strengthens and moves closer to the region.
543 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 A strong ridge remains centered over our region today with well above normal temperatures and dry weather continuing.
This afternoon and upper level ridge was located from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains while a longwave trough extended from southern Ontario into eastern Texas. A closed low develops tonight and Tuesday over the lower Mississippi Valley as a mid level trough moves across the western states.