Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As this high pressure slides southeast winds begin to shift to out of the west later this afternoon. Sunday will also see warmer temperatures than today, with highs ranging from the lower 30s across the Turtle Mountains, to the lower 40s across the southwest.
235 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through Sunday.
1234 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Most of the day will be VFR as dry air and high pressure hold over the region. Low level ridging begins to break down into Sunday as the blocking pattern relents and a northern stream wave train ensues across the Great Lakes during the early to mid week period.
Currently, surface analysis reveals a broad large area of high pressure covering the nation's mid-section. Under a mostly cloudy sky, areas of light snow (perhaps some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle as well) continue to work south across the region. If there is any lowering of the stratus cloud-base overnight in this nearly wind-less night-time boundary layer, this could present itself as fog, as well, especially over the "higher terrain" areas of the CWA (the coteaus and ridgetops). Sunday night, while the low level waa pattern continues, low level winds become southwesterly while the steering flow aloft is north- northwesterly. Temperatures tonight should be held up (warmer than climo normal) by clouds and fog, while the waa (and west or southwesterly wind direction) that develops Sunday into Sunday night will help to keep temperatures above normal.
1247 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure building in the Upper Midwest today and tonight will settle into the northern Ohio Valley on Sunday.
1052 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through Sunday.
Subtle ridging aloft will continue this evening as the Canadian high pressure over the Great Plains spreads into the OH Valley at the surface. On the other hand, areas that clear out enough could drop to the low 20s. Look for some cold overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Weak high pressure settled across the upper midwest today, keeping things pretty quiet in the area. Despite high pressure, subsidence has been weak and has allowed for thick stratus to remain largely unmoved. As the parent trough settles across the eastern US, southwesterly flow will increase warm air advection into the area and allow temperatures to warm 10+ degrees above seasonal averages into the upper 30s and even mid to upper 40s for some in the south. Forecast confidence decreases by midweek as model solutions quickly diverge with an incoming trough.
Continued cold advection however should allow low temperatures to get well down into the low to mid 20s, which is roughly where consensus numbers have them. Expect low temperatures to again fall well into the low to mid 20s. This high succeeds in pushing a low pressure system that forms in the Gulf off to the ENE.
317 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure covering most of the CONUS east of the Rockies and north of the Carolinas will maintain fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures through most of the upcoming week. There will be a NW wind across the lower lakes and this will likely bring in more cloud cover for the Alleghenies. So, will make them a little colder than blended guid, but only a couple degs cooler than their neighboring sites. We may not even mix up to 2kft in many places thanks to the strong subsidence inversion of the advancing Annie Cyclone.
1044 AM MST Sat Jan 9 2021 Trough continues to drop southward across UT, and should be centered on the Four Corner by noon today. Energy has been weaker than expected on the NE side of this trough, so light snow has been minimal across SW WY overnight. As the trough exits to the south, a piece of energy from the previous trough will get drawn southward into the passing trough, bringing some light snow to areas along and east of the Big Horn Mountains this morning through noon. Ridging starts to build in across the state for Sunday, bringing generally tranquil conditions to the region. Temperatures west of the divide will still only reach the 20s for highs, while warmer temperatures begin to return east of the divide, with highs in the 30s to near 40 around the KCOD region.
/issued 341 AM CST Sat Jan 9 2021/ Deep boundary layer moisture, cold temperatures and light winds have led to more freezing fog developing early this morning across the region. A freezing fog advisory is in effect for most our area until 10AM CST. Southeast surface flow will increase later this morning as the freezing fog dissipates. The potent upper level low will track south through New Mexico overnight, reaching the I20 corridor over Midland by sunrise tomorrow. With the clouds and snow covered ground, highs on Sunday will hover around the freezing mark as the system exits to the east. Upper level ridging near the West Coast will generally result in northwest flow over the southern High Plains.
Thus, expect a repeat on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s except for Northeast Mississippi that may see a few locations reach into the lower 40s. The big story continues to be the upper level low pressure system that is currently digging into the Southern Rockies at this time.
There is a slight chance that valleys across northwest Montana could see a period of light freezing drizzle towards sunrise Sunday morning, but confidence in this occurring is fairly low.
620 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through Sunday.
916 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
516 PM MST Sat Jan 9 2021 Band of light snow holding steady over far se Wy, on the north edge of an upper low currently over nw New Mexico. Expect the band to remain over mainly laramie and southern Albany counties the rest of the afternoon before breaking up and shifting south as the upper low moves farther southeast.
The position of the baroclinic leaf is far enough south, in conjunction with the upper level low in the Four Corners area, indicates a rapidly developing low pressure system in Western Texas. The high pressure system centered in the northeast is Iowa will serve to keep light north to northeasterly winds sustaining weak CAA over the CWA for the the overnight and Sunday. Additionally, the light northeasterly winds will provide another chance for some patchy fog and/or freezing fog tonight. This time though, most of the fog is expected to be further to the west in the High Plains, generally long and west of K-14 and along and north of US-50.
Light westerly downslope winds have developed at Livingston and Harlowton, and will begin to push further east as lee side trof develops a bit later tonight. With a high pressure building in and the winds expected to pick up a little, the fog potential should be limited. With that high pressure, winds along the foothills will see the greatest increase.
The strength of the low level inversion should keep cloud cover in place through the rest of the night and into Sunday. The cloud cover has kept temperatures a touch warmer and adjusted hourly temperatures and overnight lows accordingly. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 47 31 46 35 / 0 0 0 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 43 28 44 34 / 0 0 0 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 25 44 28 44 33 / 0 0 0 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 44 25 44 32 / 0 0 0 30 50.
Fair skies and dry conditions will keep the nights cool, but after this weekend, a warming trend will set in under building high pressure aloft. A digging trough near the Four Corners area was helping to accelerate the offshore winds today. That trough axis will be over the TX Panhandle by Sunday morning, but sfc pressure gradients will remain sufficient for some relatively strong winds in wind-prone areas into Sunday morning.
With a high pressure building in and the winds expected to pick up a little, the fog potential should be limited. With that high pressure, winds along the foothills will see the greatest increase.
A trough will move out of the Four Corners region today as it continues to dig southward into the southern Plains.
300 PM MST Sat Jan 9 2021 An upper level low, over nwrn New Mexico, will continue to move southeast tonight. The low level winds are still forecast to become more easterly early this evening which would allow light snow to become more widespread along the I-25 Corridor and Foothills.
However, I suppose you can't rule out isolated or patchy freezing drizzle but confidence is quite low at this time. Stratus with predominantly MVFR ceilings expected to persist through the period, as weak high pressure and a trapping subsidence inversion continue to govern our weather.
309 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 300 PM CST Some areas received a welcome reprieve from the dreary, cloudy days of late as the thin cloud layers was able to scatter out for a time today thanks to high pressure nosing in from the northwest and some subtle drying from the east/northeast. Low clouds will be a common theme early to mid-week as a persistent and strong inversion dominates the low-level thermo profile. Coverage of the low clouds is a little less certain with no substantial low-level moisture source and stronger winds resulting in negative moisture fluxes from an exceptionally dry layer above the inversion.
747 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 A large area of high pressure extending from the Central Rockies to the Great Lakes will drift a bit to the south over the next few days and maintain fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures for Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley through most of the upcoming week. They should turn out to be several deg F colder than blended guid, but only a couple degs cooler than their neighboring sites. We may not even mix up to 2kft in many places thanks to the strong subsidence inversion of the advancing Annie Cyclone.
416 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 Quick update to the forecast to include dense freezing fog for portions of the southern South Plains and portions of the central and southern Rolling Plains. A freezing fog advisory has been issued until 6 AM CST. Freezing Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ030-031- 033>037-039>043.
Cold and dry weather will continue through the duration of the weekend with weak upper level ridging overhead.
These will ultimately help swing a weak front thru the area, which should finally help scour the low stratus off to the E/SE.
521 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low just southeast of the four-corners will continue to move east-southeast through New Mexico overnight then east across north Texas Sunday. The upper low will be moving across north central Texas at 11/00Z, but will still expect some snow into Sunday night on the northwest side of this low.
530 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 300 PM CST Some areas received a welcome reprieve from the dreary, cloudy days of late as the thin cloud layers was able to scatter out for a time today thanks to high pressure nosing in from the northwest and some subtle drying from the east/northeast. Low clouds will be a common theme early to mid-week as a persistent and strong inversion dominates the low-level thermo profile. Coverage of the low clouds is a little less certain with no substantial low-level moisture source and stronger winds resulting in negative moisture fluxes from an exceptionally dry layer above the inversion.
Latest water vapor satellite loop this afternoon shows the upper low moving into new Mexico with another low across north central Nebraska. Lows tonight will again be dependent on cloud cover and have gone a little cooler in northeast and east central Kansas. Sunday the upper level low will track across Texas while the northern stream trough moves off into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday night.
On Sunday, breezy west winds will start to develop over North Central MT, allowing for warmer air to move into the region, and for the fog to begin to dissipate.
802 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 (Issued 800 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021) Stratus has quickly dissipated across portions of south-central and much of east-central Wisconsin this evening, allowing temperatures to quickly plummet into the low to mid teens.
Weather remains quiet, but low level moisture and cold temperatures may aid in the development of freezing fog in parts of Elko county overnight tonight.
Water vapor imagery of this 4 Corners cyclone is fairly impressive but we are lacking one huge ingredient. The low layers have just been too dry to get anything to the surface below 8500 feet. High temperatures look to be cooler tomorrow in the wake of this storm as mixing decreases and we have snow cover in the northern zones and the lower Green and Colorado River Valleys. High pressure building over the southwestern CONUS maintains dry, northwest flow stretched across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
High pressure over the central U. will produce a relatively light north to northwest flow in the lower levels across the region. Lows will near or briefly reach freezing in normally colder locations of Lake and inland Volusia counties. Along the barrier islands, south of the Cape, and immediate coast of Martin County, lows in the low to mid 40s are expected.
617 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure will move southeast across the Ohio Valley tonight, and across the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday.
This has led to afternoon temps a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecasted, with 2 PM temps in the low/mid 30's in most areas and upper 20's/low 30's in SW VA. This will maintain light northerly flow with the low-level flow turning more easterly toward sunrise.
831 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 A large area of high pressure extending from the Central Rockies to the Great Lakes will drift a bit to the south over the next few days and maintain fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures for Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley through most of the upcoming week. They should turn out to be several deg F colder than blended guid, but only a couple degs cooler than their neighboring sites. We may not even mix up to 2kft in many places thanks to the strong subsidence inversion of the advancing Annie Cyclone.
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TOMORROW. FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH The coldest night so far in 2021 still expected as lows will briefly dip to or just below freezing from Hernando northward.
Water vapor imagery from GOES-16 indicates a low pressure system over the Four Corners region with an area of enhancement out ahead across northeastern/eastern New Mexico. The track of the upper level low continues to show favoring towards a more southern track than previously forecast, which doesn't bode well for our higher snowfall chances. Western parts of the forecast area will have the best chance to see the higher amounts for this event.
Right now, the lowest visibilities are from Cando to Langdon, at one quarter of a mile. Overall expected trend tonight into Sunday will be gradual clearing of the low level moisture southward. With a bit drier air in the low levels moving in and a slowly increasing wind at 925 mb moving in tonight not expecting as much dense fog as past nights. An upper level ridge in west will keep the NW flow in place for the area, and bringing in some warmer temperatures. We will warm into the upper 30s and possibly even the low 40s heading into mid-week in the northern plains.
220 PM MST Sat Jan 9 2021 Band of light snow holding steady over far se Wy, on the north edge of an upper low currently over nw New Mexico. Expect the band to remain over mainly laramie and southern Albany counties the rest of the afternoon before breaking up and shifting south as the upper low moves farther southeast.
630 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure crosses Sunday.
The low clouds and flurries linger in Sweetwater county this afternoon.
While there is slight upper-level ridging today, stratus and northerly winds have kept temperatures in the mid 30s. Lows tonight are now forecast to be in the upper 20s, near the warm end of the model range but several degrees cooler than last night.
640 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
/issued 416 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021/ Quick update to the forecast to include dense freezing fog for portions of the southern South Plains and portions of the central and southern Rolling Plains. A freezing fog advisory has been issued until 6 AM CST. Freezing Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ030-031- 033>037-039>043.
311 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 Latest water vapor satellite loop this afternoon shows the upper low moving into new Mexico with another low across north central Nebraska. Lows tonight will again be dependent on cloud cover and have gone a little cooler in northeast and east central Kansas. Sunday the upper level low will track across Texas while the northern stream trough moves off into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday night.
Infrared satellite imagery at midnight showed the closed cyclone spinning over south central New Mexico, with radar imagery showing light snow in progress exactly where it was forecast to be, across Morton, Stanton, Grant, Stevens and Seward counties. Around sunrise/7 am, forcing for ascent will quickly end as the parent cyclone digs southeastward through the Permian Basin of West Texas. Stratus will gradually erode daylight Sunday, but with poor mixing/light winds, low January insolation, and high pressure at the surface it will not be a quick process. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing on the fresh snow cover across the southwest zones.
323 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Deep layer stability held firm under low and mid level ridging ensures benign conditions exist again today. A period of cold air advection will accompany an elongated trough axis across the area tonight. Moisture depth lacks to support precipitation development, but this process will effectively draw the higher low level moisture back into the region.
Band of light snow holding steady over far se Wy, on the north edge of an upper low currently over nw New Mexico. Expect the band to remain over mainly laramie and southern Albany counties the rest of the afternoon before breaking up and shifting south as the upper low moves farther southeast.
Expect lows to hover around the freezing mark in the coolest of spots. Two distinct upper lows are expected to swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 48 hours.
AMDAR soundings indicate near isothermal layer hovering at or just below freezing up to 700mb. Around the area, most roads remain in good shape though bridges and overpasses are starting to ice up. /issued 416 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021/ Quick update to the forecast to include dense freezing fog for portions of the southern South Plains and portions of the central and southern Rolling Plains. A freezing fog advisory has been issued until 6 AM CST. Freezing Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ030-031- 033>037-039>043.
1215 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure crosses Sunday.
Water vapor imagery of this 4 Corners cyclone is fairly impressive but we are lacking one huge ingredient. The low layers have just been too dry to get anything to the surface below 8500 feet. High temperatures look to be cooler tomorrow in the wake of this storm as mixing decreases and we have snow cover in the northern zones and the lower Green and Colorado River Valleys. High pressure building over the southwestern CONUS maintains dry, northwest flow stretched across eastern Utah and western Colorado. While KVEL is currently just west of the low clouds, it's always a good bet they'll drop to IFR so put some fog and low ceilings for the airport.
246 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
high pressure reaching across the Great Lakes from the center of the country will keep dry uneventful weather in place through the weekend. High pressure centered across the upper Midwest continues to ridge into our region this weekend. It will otherwise be dry with lows in the lower to mid 20s, except in the teens east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will also see a return to more seasonable readings, with highs in the low 30s and mid to upper 20s east of Lake Ontario. This will allow the low level flow to backing more west-southwest.
At the surface, high pressure remains in control of the Northern and Central Plains as stratus once again builds into the forecast area from the north. Clouds and patchy freezing fog will remain through the morning hours before some clearing takes place this afternoon and evening mainly across east-central Kansas. High pressure becomes centered over the area today with light north winds and cloudy skies limiting the amount of heating.
Despite the main upper low which continues to drift away from Colorado and into South Central New Mexico, the snow has increased. VAD wind profiler showing the low level flow has shifted more easterly this evening which has enhanced the upslope flow along the Front Range. An upper level low, over nwrn New Mexico, will continue to move southeast tonight. The low level winds are still forecast to become more easterly early this evening which would allow light snow to become more widespread along the I-25 Corridor and Foothills.
Meanwhile, high pressure was nosing into the Central Plains. For those locations where sunshine prevails, we may see highs in the lower 40s, but for those areas where clouds prevail temperatures may struggle to reach the mid 30s much like the past two days.
1104 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 300 PM CST Some areas received a welcome reprieve from the dreary, cloudy days of late as the thin cloud layers was able to scatter out for a time today thanks to high pressure nosing in from the northwest and some subtle drying from the east/northeast. Low clouds will be a common theme early to mid-week as a persistent and strong inversion dominates the low-level thermo profile. Coverage of the low clouds is a little less certain with no substantial low-level moisture source and stronger winds resulting in negative moisture fluxes from an exceptionally dry layer above the inversion.
1225 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through Sunday.
Patchy dense fog developed by sunset in the Lower Treasure Valley around Ontario and shortly thereafter in McCall. The clouds are associated with a weakening upper trough near the coast.
The strength of the low level inversion should keep cloud cover in place through the rest of the night and into Sunday. The cloud cover has kept temperatures a touch warmer and adjusted hourly temperatures and overnight lows accordingly.
100 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
Low temperatures are tricky where it may be cooler than forecast where breaks develop and warmer where there is overcast skies. There have been breaks to no clouds in the western FL panhandle where temperatures quickly dropped to the low 30s. Should see some sun today as the low level clouds erode but high level clouds will increase ahead of the next system.
345 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through the weekend.
- Above Normal Temperatures this Week - Quiet weather can be expected for much of this week while warmer than normal temperatures return.
This may occur in the wake of the departing short wave trough where the subsidence is the strongest, but if it does occur, it will not last long. Another short wave trough will be approaching from the northwest that will quickly spread more clouds over the region. Some upper-level ridging building in from the west moves into the area with 850mb temperatures rising above freezing.
That said, lows Sunday night will be around freezing over the northwestern portion of the area and considering these values plus wet bulb effects in the sub cloud layer, cannot rule out some wintry precipitation mixing in with the rain.