Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
115 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High confidence with VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period as high pressure remains overhead through tonight. ) High pressure will sink southeast tomorrow as a weak area of low pressure begins to track across the Northern Great Lakes. as amplified upper level ridge axis moves overhead. The significant change is the low level winds will shift to the south/southwest this afternoon. Strengthening low level southwest flow on Tuesday ahead of cold front will allow temperatures to reach and likely exceed 80 degrees as 850 mb temps reach between 13 to 15 c. An increase in clouds/convective debris during the afternoon could cause a disruption to the forecasted highs in the low to mid 80s however. but there looks to be little to no upper level support as flatter upper level ridge holds.
/issued 348 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough will be digging south over the Pacific coastal states today as an upper ridge axis now extending from the ArkLaTex to the Great Lakes builds a little further eastward.
00z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery indicated a large trough over much of the western CONUS with upper ridging remaining over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Fairly impressive moisture plume observed from OK/TX northward to SD with 850 mb dewpoints exceeding 12C, sfc dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, and PWAT values exceeding 1 inch.
A trough noted on the 700/500mb heights combined with two MCV's moving across eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma were working to produce slow moving showers and thunderstorms across areas just west of the Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas. Several short waves will move over the flattening ridge tonight and through Tuesday. The overall pattern will change little from Tuesday evening through the end of the work week as the Ozarks remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS.
A few storms have already developed along the intersection of the diffuse west coast seabreeze and cold front, with additional showers popping up along some of the other boundaries across the region.
With the sfc flow shifting back more onshore tonight min temps will be a little warmer.
353 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The pattern will be dominated by a large trough across the west half of the U. , and a large ridge across the east half of the U. Upper MI will be near the top of the ridge, so any energy will produce showers and some thunderstorms.
Similar story for Tuesday as trough remains over the area. With plenty of cloud cover and trough in the area, temperatures will remain below normal.
Cold front is making its way southeast across the Ohio River early this morning. Most of the shower activity will push southeast of the region by tonight as high pressure nudges east toward MS River Valley.
325 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 High pressure will filter warm, dry air into the region over the next couple of days. Near freezing temperatures will again be a concern tonight for many valleys. However, freezing conditions do not look to be widespread enough to warrant any highlights. Dry weather will persist for the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
The cold front is expected to move into the western portions of the forecast area by around 22z, the HSV area by 00z and rest of the area by 03z tonight. Temperatures are expected to be about 15-20 degrees cooler (in the low 50s) by Friday morning compared to this morning. As upper level ridge building begins should see a return of sunny conditions on Friday. However, much cooler and breezy winds are likely with of 10-15 MPH sustained winds and gusts possibly rising to 25 MPH in the higher elevations of northeast AL/southern middle TN. After a blustery cold air advection fall day and daytime highs in the low to middle 60s, anticipating a significant drop in dewpoint temperatures which along with radiational cooling overnight should result in the lowest temperatures of the season.
249 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Dry weather will continue across southeast and south central CO tonight and Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. Tonight there will again be some areas of temps around freezing or in the upper 20s. Portions of the far southeast plains should see low temps in the lower 30s and they could see some areas of frost, but not expecting a long period of freezing temps so will not issue a highlight, but will mention some frost in the forecast. On Friday, temps will be warmer and should be about 10 degrees above average over the southeast plains, with about 5 degrees above average in the San Luis Valley.
Tonight Through Friday Relatively dry west flow aloft with a high pressure ridge over the west will bring variable cloud cover to the area through Friday.
High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Scattered showers will move through pretty much all terminals except KCLL throughout this afternoon as a cold front continues to push southeastward through SE TX. /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ 04Z surface analysis has the main cold front located roughly along a Presidio to San Angelo to Wichita Falls line. , mid to upper flow becoming more parallel with surface front, location of the leading pre-frontal trough), the main cold front will likely come through between the mid to late morning hours up north and be off the coast by the late afternoon.
The cold front has pushed through North Texas and is moving into Central Texas as of 11z. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ A cold front that extended just southeast of a Bonham to DFW to Comanche line as of 3 AM will continue to move southeast today. With clear skies and drier air having filtered into the region, lows will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
559 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 Drier and cooler air continues to filter into the state behind the cold front that pushed south through the state today.
Current thinking is a few locations, especially the lower lying areas may touch freezing mark briefly with most broad areas remaining in the mid 30s. Much warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s are likely Thursday afternoon with abundant insolation and gusty afternoon winds nearing 30 knots at times from Liberal to Hays and eastward. Highs will rise into the low 80s for the weekend as a strong upper ridge develops across the mid section of the country.
1122 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows trough in place across the central US, with main mid-upper level circulation near central Nebraska. Trough transitions east of our region today, with H5 ridge building across the Rockies an into the plains.
The main convective activity will come along the cold front which is forecast to move into northwest Alabama this afternoon. Clearing and turning much cooler after midnight.
350 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain through Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. Showers and scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage this evening as deepening low pressure advances along a surface boundary set up across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large high pressure system stretching from central Canada southward to the Great Plains. Upper troughing is moving over the western Great Lakes, with cold advection continuing off of Lake Superior contributing to a widespread cu field. High pressure will be slowly moving east over the northern Mississippi Valley. As light winds back to the west through the day, should see early morning clouds retreat northward some, but think thermal troughing should still lead to a persistent cu field over northern and northeast WI.
As a result, a fair and cooler day is in store. Late tonight will see a return of south winds across the western zones as the ridge axis shifts to the the east of that part of the forecast area. That development should keep the majority of northwestern zones from seeing freezing temperatures. The large scale pattern remains on track to transition from weak cyclonic NW flow early Friday to progressive ridging for the start of the weekend.
High pressure will bring quiet weather with dry conditions to northern and central Nevada through the weekend.
143 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Cold front moves from west to east this evening into tonight with showers and storms.
1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 /18Z TAFS/ The cold front continues to push south this afternoon with the last area of precipitation to the southeast of Waco at this time. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ A cold front that extended just southeast of a Bonham to DFW to Comanche line as of 3 AM will continue to move southeast today. With clear skies and drier air having filtered into the region, lows will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive longwave trough shifting across the Plains States. The low level jet associated with this trough has kept showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri yesterday through the early morning hours, with a secondary area of light rain in eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas thanks to the frontogenic forcing along a secondary cold front that will sweep into the region today. The cool weather wont last long as the progressive trough's axis, that is allowing the cool air to spill south, will move to our east later tonight placing Kansas and Missouri under the expanding influence of an upper level ridge.
317 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 (Today and Tonight) Much cooler across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures from the lower 70s across the I-20 corridor at Abilene and Sweetwater, to the upper 70s across the I-10 corridor at Junction. Will stick to the coolest of the guidance readings, showing overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper level ridge will occupy the central CONUS by Friday night with the forecast area sitting under the closed upper high at the base of the ridge.
Snow levels will continue to be pretty high, so expect rain in all but the highest terrain.
These conditions will allow for maximum radiational cooling with low temps in the upper 30s far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas to the low/mid 40s elsewhere possible by Friday morning.
/issued 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Cold front currently heading into the Davis Mountains and should be south of the border by sunrise. Much cooler temperatures (much below normal) are expected this afternoon due to cool air advection, despite the decreasing clouds.
Scattered convection along and ahead of the cold front, located from near Port Lavaca to south of Beeville to south of Encinal at 20Z, will continue to push south through the area through late afternoon. The cooler and drier air will push through the area with winds becoming breezy along the coast tonight into Friday morning.
A flat upper ridge was noted over the region this afternoon as a weak Pac disturbance was moving into WRN Canada.
323 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows an upper trough axis just to our east with a weak upstream trough axis sliding southeast from the Dakotas. Expect this area of high pressure to be centered over the CWA through the evening with light return flow increasing by early Friday morning. Clearing skies and calm winds overnight should allow temperatures to fall to around or just below freezing in most areas.
An upper level ridge will build over NM tonight and Friday with VFR conditions and light winds areawide. Cooler temperatures are expected today, but the drop in temperatures will be short-lived. An upper level ridge will build into the area Friday and shift eastward over the weekend.
Broad trof, with associated jet streak over northeastern Washington, was continuing inland this afternoon. After 9PM the winds should begin to subside as pressure rises move into the plains behind the trof and jet streak. As the trof slides through, a small chance of showers is possible north of Livingston, Billings, and Miles City overnight, but with minimal forcing, and some residual downslope winds, we wont see much coverage.
Cold front now well clear of the fcst area with breezy northwest winds prevailing in its wake. however arrival of high pressure during the overnight hours should quickly erode lingering clouds as the evening and early overnight hours progress. WFO LSX Benign weather pattern continues to take shape for the upcoming weekend as ridging builds overhead and southerly flow is re-established over the area.
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 A cold front continues to push through the Mid-South this afternoon. High pressure will build over the Mid-South on Friday and will remain over the area through the weekend.
A cold front was located along the Ohio River this morning. Our northwest counties will have the highest rain chances from noon to 4pm, while the highest chances for BNA will be 2pm - 7pm. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 70s northwest to lower 80s southeast. An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
This band, and the corresponding cold front. 55 A cold front is moving across the state this morning.
slowly deepening as the supporting upper trough in the Plains sharpens. mainly in the early to mid afternoon hours when temperatures approach 80F and speed shear increases ahead of the trough.
The cold front is expected to move into the western portions of the forecast area by around 22z and into the HSV area by 00z and rest of the area by 03z tonight. Temperatures are expected to be about 15-20 degrees cooler (in the low 50s) by Friday morning compared to this morning. As upper level ridge building begins should see a return of sunny conditions on Friday. However, much cooler and breezy winds are likely with of 10-15 MPH sustained winds and gusts possibly rising to 25 MPH in the higher elevations of northeast AL/southern middle TN. After a blustery cold air advection fall day and daytime highs in the low to middle 60s, anticipating a significant drop in dewpoint temperatures which along with radiational cooling overnight should result in the lowest temperatures of the season.
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Radar showing a wealth of showers and thunderstorms over/near most TAF sites as a cold front moves in from the west.
Northwest flow will bring dry and cooler than average weather to the area through tonight. More near freezing temperatures will be possible across the plains although it currently doesn't look like readings will be cold enough, long enough to warrant highlights. An upper ridge will transition eastward over the area for Friday through the weekend, keeping dry weather over the region and bringing a return of above normal temperatures. Winds should remain light, aside from some breezy westerly winds at times over the higher elevations during the afternoon.
The frontal passage will not bring much in terms of chances for rain overnight, with only a slight chance over our coastal waters, but cooler and drier conditions will be on the way for tomorrow.
As of 1930z the cold front was draped NE to SW across central MS with a broken line of showers/storms from TVR to CBM. Trended PoPs to match the latest radar trends and timing of the cold front with storms/showers exiting the CWA by early this evening. CAA behind the front will quickly usher in cooler temps and much drier air with dewpoints falling into the mid/upper 40s by Friday morning. 850mb temperatures will generally be near the 10th percentile, per the NAEFS/GFS ensembles, which will bring in cooler than normal highs on Friday. Breezy winds due to the lingering pressure gradient behind the departing trough combined with efficient mixing will help dewpoints fall into the upper 30s Friday. Cool, dry Canadian air will continue to filter into the region behind a cold front that will have cleared the area by Friday morning.
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Forecast concerns today will be showers/sprinkles ending, clouds today and Friday along with temperatures, then warmer weather for the weekend. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Mid level ridging increases with thickening clouds Friday in an area of h7 warm air advection. A wave tops the ridge across the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
The parent high will swing across NE and KS, allowing the trough across our area to exit east to MN by early evening.
Ketcham An upper trough over the Central Plains early this morning, will continue to dig east-southeastward with amplification, reaching the eastern CONUS by midday Friday. Patches of sprinkles could affect north-central and eastern Kansas this morning, as the cold, mid- level thermal trough moves across the region. Highs in the low-mid 60s (a few degrees cooler than normal) look on track given some afternoon insolation.
Mav guidance had 49f at KONL but hedged up a couple of degrees with highs in the low to upper 50s over all of western Nebraska.
and Friday Cold advection and some cloud cover will produce cooler weather today, with highs close to normal for this time of the year.
A cold front will continue to push across the ARKLATEX leading to intermittent wind gusts of 15-20 kts. /issued 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Upper trof continues to move across the Plains this morning, driving a cold front into N TX/SE OK. Convection associated with this trof/front is all post-frontal, and has continued to lose intensity over the last few hours. In addition to storms, gusty post-frontal winds will usher in a much cooler airmass, which will keep our temps across much of the region in the 70s today. High pressure will settle into the region overnight tonight into Friday, with NW flow aloft to overtake the srn CONUS in the wake of the trof.
With high pressure over our region, wind speeds are pretty light. Otherwise low temperatures should be around the low to mid 30s across the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the main synoptic cold front are beginning to push south of our CWA, with only a few cells in southern Dimmit and Maverick Counties left. These winds should be strong enough to keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s tonight for most locations despite clear skies, with the Hill Country and other lower-lying areas seeing some upper 40s. Lows on Friday night will be the coolest of the forecast period as light winds and clear skies allow for strong radiational cooling with lows ranging from the lower 40s in the Hill Country to lower 50s in the Rio Grande Plains.
A big ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the nation's midsection from the west on Friday.
203 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. A wide range of temperatures today with the low bisecting the area. An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up. A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday.
Low Pressure over kentucky late this afternoon will push northeast tonight. dragging a cold front along the Ohio River father southeast. As the low departs the area. High pressure over the Central Plains states is expected to build across the region. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows Low pressure in place across Kentucky. A frontal systems was found stretching from eastern Pennsylvania to Western Kentucky and then south to the Lower Mississippi river Valley. High pressure was found across the central Plains. Water vapor showed an approaching upper trough over Illinois and Iowa. As the cold front sags southward. Thus will trend toward the cooler MAVMOS lows. After the departure of the broad trough in place across the area on Friday. GFS and NAM suggest Strong ridging to build across the western plains and slowly spill eastward.
158 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Upper level analysis has trof shifting east into the Great Lakes region, and ridge building across the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the eastern Dakotas, with lee trof strengthening across central MT and eastern WY. Eastern pac troughing will persist through the period as fast westerly disturbed flow over the northern pac supports trough re- loading there. This will continue to support downstream mean ridging. Flow will remain progressive with periodic disturbances ejecting out of the persistent trough.
320 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Showers and a couple storms will continue to be an issue over the next several hours as a cold front works through SE Texas.
The south-central to southeast still has yet to experience freezing temperatures and thus lead toward a frost advisory in this location. However, with these location already experiencing freezing temperatures, held off on any headlines attm but have mention of frost for continuity across the CWA.
Current thinking is a few locations, especially the lower lying areas may touch freezing mark breifly with most broad areas remaining in the mid 30s. Much warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s are likely Thursday afternoon with abundant insolation and gusty afternoon winds nearing 30 knots at times from Liberal to Hays and eastward. Highs will rise into the low 80s for the weekend as a strong upper ridge develops across the mid section of the country.
157 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Aviation Low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley today will bring occasional rain, mainly to areas south and east of Grand Rapids.
342 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure will track across southern and eastern Ohio this evening along a frontal boundary. The low will reach central pennsylvania to central New York State tonight. As the low passes it will pull a strong cold front eastward with it.
As a cold front crosses the area late tonight and early tomorrow, northwest winds will pick up in DHN first, then ECP and ABY, then later Friday morning at TLH and VLD. Ridging across the Southern US will weaken as a trough of low pressure moves quickly across the Plains States. By the end of the day, a cold front will be approaching the region from the west, bringing a much cooler and drier airmass to the region in the coming days.
These cooler temperatures will be particularly noticeable as a result of the unseasonably warm conditions that have existed through much of October. Upper trof will be advancing across the Mississippi Valley overnight with broad ridging following into the plains. De-amplifying ridge advances east across the region during the first half of the new work-week while a low level southerly flow becomes established with high pressure advancing to our east. Thus warmer temperatures and climbing humidity returning. A strong cold front will advance across the northwest gulf late this afternoon and evening. Winds will then become east to southeast for the weekend as the high advances east of the region and settles into the southeast conus.