Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 1110 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ Updated for expiration of the High Wind Warning. Have allowed the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains to expire as scheduled, with wind speeds expected to continue decreasing through the day. /issued 337 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ The cold front finally blew through the area last night though temps have been slow to fall this morning with MAF currently still above 60 degrees.
A cold front continues to slowly push through the region. Winds at the start of this TAF period should be south to southwesterly but will veer toward the northwest by tonight behind the cold front.
157 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the region under northwest flow on the backside of an exiting upper trough today. To the southwest, high pressure is centered over Baja California with ridging over the Desert Southwest. Winds turned to the south early this afternoon as a lee trough deepened along the Rockies. A strong upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and flow aloft of the region shifts to southwesterly.
348 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Leeward troughing has developed across the western High Plains. Warmer air as advected northward today and will continue to do so through tonight. No frost is expected tonight due to the increase in winds and warmer air that has moved north. Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday as southerly flow and warm air advection continue. Across the western Sandhills winds will be more southwest and this will allow for drier air off the higher terrain to the west to spread east.
208 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough near the coast, along with a weak front slowly moving through the region late today and Tuesday, will bring a slight chance of showers.
As the upper level trough just to our northwest begins to slide towards our area, low/mid level moisture will decrease and limit shower development beyond 03z.
A low pressure system is approaching the region from the northwest.
208 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Doesn't get much better than the next few days weather-wise in October! Broad zonal flow regime in place across much of the CONUS at the moment will gradually transition to one of digging western troughing, helping build heights across the eastern states into midweek. In the low levels, broad ridging centered across the southern Plains this morning will slowly meander through the Great Lakes, maintaining a dry air influence across the local area while also ushering in a gradually tightening pressure gradient with time.
826 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 It has been a soggy afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure moves across the area.
826 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A cold front moved over the Gulf waters this afternoon and will continue to move southward tonight. At this time, the forecast contains highs in the low 80s for this region and may be subject to a few changes depending on how soon the cloud coverage begins to clear out.
917 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Broad area of low pressure/inverted trough located across south Florida along with high moisture gave almost all of east central Florida measurable rainfall today along with some isolated storms. Latest RAP depiction of MSLP places the trough axis roughly from Lake Okeechobee extending through the Treasure Coast and to the ENE over the Atlantic. This places areas from Vero Beach northward on the ascending side of the trough, and some PVA aloft is providing additional lift. Showers and storms expected to transition more offshore overnight, but with the high moisture and broad low pressure nearby VCSH will remain in all TAFs.
For this evening, a low level trough axis extends from the Yucatan Channel northeast to about Naples or Fort Myers, leaving the Keys under deep and moist south-southwest flow. This will favor the Lower Keys. A midlatitude trough dipping into the north-central Gulf will continue to support stronger southwest flow aloft. After Tuesday, upper level support will exit the area, and the low-level trough to our northwest will become more ill-defined.
705 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Lingering showers are possible over the southeast ridges tonight. Outside of lingering showers over the far southeast ridges, Tuesday looks dry with seasonable temperatures. This setup will necessitate keeping PoPs in over the SE ridges through the night as well as thicker and more widespread cloud cover. A potent upper level low will dig across the western U.
Everyone will get to enjoy a bonafide cool fall night with lows dropping into the upper 40s over our northwest counties and the low to mid 50s elsewhere, which amazingly is 40-50 degrees lower than temperatures were just 2 days ago.
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
Lows will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. /issued 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ Cooler and drier air will continue to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area overnight and early this morning.
813 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough near the coast, along with a weak front slowly moving through the region, will result in a slight chance of showers through Tuesday.
08/00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD as high pressure conts to bld into the region.
832 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
816 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough near the coast, along with a weak front slowly moving through the region, will result in a slight chance of showers through Tuesday.
/issued 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ Cooler and drier air will continue to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area overnight and early this morning.
435 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Much advertised cold front finally moving toward the coast this aftn, currently located along or just south of I-10. Aloft, a trough was located over the eastern CONUS, extending fm the Ohio Valley S/SW over the mid/lower MS Valley toward the NW Gulf coast. This trough is expected to progress east, helping to usher the cold front offshore overnight into Tuesday. 24 Any inland convection is expected to diminish/move south through early evening as the cold front continues to progress acrs the area. Much cooler air will filter into the region tonight, with lows falling into the upper 50s north to lower/middle 60s south. High pres will build over the region Tuesday, providing for a very pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, low relative humidity and highs into the lower 80s.
/GG/ As the front shifts southeast of the forecast area, we are looking at diminishing light rain and cooler/drier air continuing to advect into the forecast area.
High pressure and light winds over region. /issued 236 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ Overnight low dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds will set up favorable radiational cooling conditions, low temps will be even cooler than this morning. Guidance and model temps seem too low Thur based on scenario that front will be to the n with downslope winds ahead of front, we will continue trend of warmer temps.
Light winds and clear skies have dominated today though some surface gusts have already returned to central portions of the state as lee troughing develops under west-northwest flow. Still appears best warm-air advection will be aloft tonight into Tuesday so keeping highs in the lower to middle 70s with increased mixing not resulting in much warming.
Expect decreasing clouds later tonight into Tuesday as drier air continues to advect in behind the cold front which has moved through the CWA. /27/ Prior discussion below: As the front shifts southeast of the forecast area, we are looking at diminishing light rain and cooler/drier air continuing to advect into the forecast area.
627 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Doesn't get much better than the next few days weather-wise in October! Broad zonal flow regime in place across much of the CONUS at the moment will gradually transition to one of digging western troughing, helping build heights across the eastern states into midweek. In the low levels, broad ridging centered across the southern Plains this morning will slowly meander through the Great Lakes, maintaining a dry air influence across the local area while also ushering in a gradually tightening pressure gradient with time.
524 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the region under northwest flow on the backside of an exiting upper trough today. To the southwest, high pressure is centered over Baja California with ridging over the Desert Southwest. Winds turned to the south early this afternoon as a lee trough deepened along the Rockies. A strong upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and flow aloft of the region shifts to southwesterly.
401 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure will keep temperatures above normal through Tuesday.
With last night's cold front all the way through Middle TN this afternoon, dew points have really fallen off. This is going to keep not only overnight lows a little warmer than they could be, but afternoon highs should also be lower on Tuesday.
438 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Well advertised cold front looks to be along a line of roughly Alexandria to Natchez to Jackson, MS. This cold front should continue to push over into the Gulf tonight. Once the cold front passes it should bring low temperatures in the upper 60s along and north of I-12 to low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Even with the cold frontal passage temperatures will still continue to be above average in the mid to upper 80s and slowly uptick again as high pressure builds back.
635 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Leeward troughing has developed across the western High Plains. Warmer air as advected northward today and will continue to do so through tonight. No frost is expected tonight due to the increase in winds and warmer air that has moved north. Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday as southerly flow and warm air advection continue. Across the western Sandhills winds will be more southwest and this will allow for drier air off the higher terrain to the west to spread east.
A surface trof of low pressure over ern CO and ern NM will result in south to southwest winds through Tuesday, gusty at times from late morning Tuesday through the afternoon hours.
Warm southerly flow will be in place as the region remains between high pressure to the east and approaching low pressure from the west. A fairly strong cold front will then approach the area Tuesday night, and looks to just slide across the northwestern part of the CWA by sunrise Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s east, with highs on Tuesday in the 70s. Lows on Tuesday night will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s east. Highs should reach the upper 60s to the low 70s. An upper level trough west of the region will bring cooler temps in our western CWA on Wednesday.
Models do have the upper trough slowly moving eastward during the day, but show the trough axis still over eastern TN in the early evening.
Latest model data shows little change with a cold front arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. It enters e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mid-late afternoon, pushing through the lower Snake Plain in the early evening and through the western Magic Valley by midnight.
Heading into Wednesday, a southwesterly flow regime is expected in the low-levels in response to a deepening upper-level low that will pivot across the inter Rocky Mountain region. The region is forecast to remain relatively dry, excluding the far southeastern portion of the CWA where low chances of rain are possible along the potent cold front. The exact timing of the cold front is a little uncertain at this time. Gradient winds post-frontal passage (FROPA) may be sustained around 25mph with higher gusts (perhaps to wind advisory criteria) given a tight pressure gradient along the cold front and pressure rises post-FROPA of ~8-10mb/12hr as the upper-level low pivots into the northern Great Plains.
/15/ Expect decreasing clouds later tonight into Tuesday as drier air continues to advect in behind the cold front which has moved through the CWA. /27/ Prior discussion below: As the front shifts southeast of the forecast area, we are looking at diminishing light rain and cooler/drier air continuing to advect into the forecast area.
340 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Primary forecast focus is on the strong cold front late week.
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure was in control of the regions weather overnight and will continue through today and overnight tonight. Upper level ridging will slide across the plains and into the Ozarks and help allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s today thanks to sunny skies. Winds will begin to pick up overnight though as southerly return flow begins as a rather strong upper level trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest.
A strong cold front is still expected to reach the western CWA by sunrise Wednesday thus keeping the far western CWA very cool (highs 10 to 15 degrees below average) and the rest of the forecast area warmer and near average. For tonight, lows will remain above freezing. Conditions also become windy Wednesday from west to east as the aforementioned cold front passes through.
Low level jet developing in response to upper trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight should begin to transport moisture north with some elevated convection possibly developing as far east as northeast OK late tonight into Wednesday morning. Upper low is expected to continue moving east and eject into the plains by Wednesday night, with more robust moisture transport taking shape by then.
08/00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD as high pressure conts to bld into the region. Come Wednesday, low pressure will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies with southerly flow returning. Meanwhile an upper level trough will deepen over the Rockies and house a cold front to move through the Plains at the end of the week.
VAD wind profiles at HPX do show pretty good mixing, 20-30 knots, in the lowest 1 and 2 kft, whereas KLVX is a little weaker 15-25 knots. ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s across the area.
But more widespread activity is expected to move into the region after sunset as a strong upper trough moves into the Plains.
/issued 236 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ Overnight low dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds will set up favorable radiational cooling conditions, low temps will be even cooler than this morning. Guidance and model temps seem too low Thur based on scenario that front will be to the n with downslope winds ahead of front, we will continue trend of warmer temps.
A trough of low pressure over the Florida peninsula continues to generate a few showers across west central and southwest Florida. then the trough of low pressure will gradually pull away from the area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The best chance will be across the southeast New Mexico Plains this evening closest to the passing upper trough.
CVKING Meanwhile, big changes will be happening aloft to our west as a deep trough of low pressure is carved out across the Rockies.
230 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Persistent low level cloud cover will continue through mid morning today as the mid and upper level trough axis gradually passes through the TN Valley today. As the mid level trough axis slowly tracks out of Northwest Alabama, a slight chance for rain will continue through the afternoon. High pressure at the surface will translate from the Great Lakes region to the northeast into New England. When combined with the warmer early morning temperatures due to the cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, high temperatures today will pleasantly peak in the mid to upper 70s. At the same time, mid and upper level ridging will increase through mid week, setting up an omega blocking pattern over the Southeast.
/ISSUED 826 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ A cold front moved over the Gulf waters this afternoon and will continue to move southward tonight. At this time, the forecast contains highs in the low 80s for this region and may be subject to a few changes depending on how soon the cloud coverage begins to clear out.
In fact, by Thu, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s ahead of a large low pressure system moving into the central Plains.
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, the cool air mass, clear skies and light and variable winds are resulting in 1 am temperatures having already dropped into the low 50s in many locations. Today looks dry and warmer as weak upper level ridging moves in and the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s across the region. Expect a warmer night tonight, with lows in the low 60s.
1249 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Leeward troughing has developed across the western High Plains. Warmer air as advected northward today and will continue to do so through tonight. No frost is expected tonight due to the increase in winds and warmer air that has moved north. Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday as southerly flow and warm air advection continue. Across the western Sandhills winds will be more southwest and this will allow for drier air off the higher terrain to the west to spread east.
106 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible over the southeast ridges tonight. Outside of lingering showers over the far southeast ridges, Tuesday looks dry with seasonable temperatures. This setup will necessitate keeping PoPs in over the SE ridges through the night as well as thicker and more widespread cloud cover. A potent upper level low will dig across the western U.
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
A mid level ridge axis currently situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley will slide off to the east today, with warm air advection continuing in the low levels. Quiet weather persists into tonight, with low temperatures just a tad warmer courtesy of the ongoing WAA.
Today will be warmer, however, as surface winds remain out of the south under slight upper ridging.
High temperatures will be close to seasonal normals today with warmer readings tomorrow.
1221 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible over the southeast ridges tonight. Outside of lingering showers over the far southeast ridges, Tuesday looks dry with seasonable temperatures. This setup will necessitate keeping PoPs in over the SE ridges through the night as well as thicker and more widespread cloud cover. A potent upper level low will dig across the western U.
/issued 321 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ (Tonight and Tuesday) This cold front has brought welcome relief, from the heat! Lows tonight will be around 5 degrees cooler than usual early October lows.
344 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 The cold front that has been discussed for days has moved through the CWA. One characteristic of early fall cold fronts that is sometimes observed is a lack of clear cut location. Meanwhile, temperatures will finally fail to break any records today with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Wednesday should be a similar day as today albeit a bump in temps back into the upper 80s as a weak upper level ridge passes overhead. As this high pressure slides farther east, southerly flow wrapping around its west side will gradually bring dewpoints back up into the lower 70s.
Drier air will be filtering in behind this slow moving short wave trough axis, with clouds breaking up as early as mid to late morning in western areas and then this trend continuing to the east during the remainder of the day/early tonight.
1030 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Doesn't get much better than the next few days weather-wise in October! Broad zonal flow regime in place across much of the CONUS at the moment will gradually transition to one of digging western troughing, helping build heights across the eastern states into midweek. In the low levels, broad ridging centered across the southern Plains this morning will slowly meander through the Great Lakes, maintaining a dry air influence across the local area while also ushering in a gradually tightening pressure gradient with time. Big changes looming into late week and beyond, with excellent agreement among guidance at this point for strong western troughing to slip eastward and close off somewhere across the Upper Midwest into the weekend.
Continued dry and warm conditions are expected on Wednesday as a potent upper trough churns toward the Rocky Mountains from the Pacific, further veering low and mid-level flow and pushing highs into the mid 80s to mid 90s.
344 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next couple of days.
Mild tonight but cold front will move into the Devils Lake area by morning. Cold front will progress southeast Wednesday and rain will develop as moisture overruns the colder air behind the front.
354 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough crossing BC Canada and pushing into the Pacific NW states. Zonal upper flow across the CWA is gradually becoming more southwesterly as the trough continues eastward. A strong cold front will push through Montana this afternoon and evening, cross over into the CWA late this evening into Wednesday morning.
406 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 A sprawling high pressure system currently centered over the Ohio Valley will continue to dominate the surface weather pattern through Wednesday. The ridge axis will slowly shift to the southeast through the short term, which in conjunction with a strengthening low over the Plains, will turn the low level flow back to the south.
Very gusty southwest winds will develop Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches.
947 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 A cold front that moved across the area yesterday was now positioned from east of the VA/NC Blue Ridge, to the upstate of SC and SE of Atlanta. At the same time, mid and upper level ridging will increase through mid week, setting up an omega blocking pattern over the Southeast.
531 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next couple of days.
1047 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 An elongated trough stretching from southwest to northeast across east central FL this morning, will keep a wind flow from the northeast north of Orange and Canaveral while the Treasure Coast will observe a southwest wind flow.
Persistent low level cloud cover will continue through mid morning today as the mid and upper level trough axis gradually passes through the TN Valley today. As the mid level trough axis slowly tracks out of Northwest Alabama, a slight chance for rain will continue through the afternoon. High pressure at the surface will translate from the Great Lakes region to the northeast into New England. When combined with the warmer early morning temperatures due to the cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, high temperatures today will pleasantly peak in the mid to upper 70s. At the same time, mid and upper level ridging will increase through mid week, setting up an omega blocking pattern over the Southeast.
Temperatures will remain a bit warmer than average through Wednesday then cool off several degrees late in the week. Upstream water vapor imagery showed a weak upper level trof extending from SW UT to srn CA.
This jet will dip southward into northern Oregon this evening, but the best jet dynamics will remain north of the region, and the highest amount of precipitation will be north of the area as a result. As we head into Wednesday morning the upper trough that brought the front through the Pacific Northwest shifts east, with an upper ridge building in quickly behind, and a thermal trough deepening on the southern Oregon coast.