Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions prevailed across southeast Arizona this morning with a few storms already starting to pop up, mainly over the higher terrain east of Tucson. Upper air charts showed inverted trof extending from northwest NM to southern Sonora MX. Flow aloft becomes more E-SE tonight late tonight and potentially southerly on Sunday as models move inverted trof across the area.
Upper level short wave trough noted in morning water vapor imagery will approach from the northwest on the periphery of the upper ridge.
Near the surface, a weak cold front is moving slowly southward across northwest and north central Kansas.
With clear skies and very low dew points, we can expect one more chilly night before the return flow delivers considerably warmer temperatures starting tomorrow. VFR conditions through this TAF cycle as high pressure takes over across the region.
1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
722 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, winds will diminish some this evening, then ramp up again by mid to late Thursday morning as a surface trof of low pressure deepens over ern CO and ern NM. Northwest flow aloft over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles transitions to southwest overnight as mid-level ridge translates eastward across the forecast area. Also on Thursday, modest increase in low- to mid-level moisture aligned with surface trof expected to lead to a small amount of elevated instability in eastern sections late in the afternoon. Pacific cold front moves east through the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with further low-level drying.
1228 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. Dry weather and partial clearing is expected overnight with increasing snow shower chances just before sunrise as a cold front approaches. With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Quiet and mild conditions are expected in the short term period, as an upper level ridge slides across the central part of the country.
Cold front is currently near a KELY-KEVW line as it tracks eastward.
849 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 The surface cold front has moved through northeast Minnesota and is passing through northwest Wisconsin at this moment. A weak cold front sags down from Ontario tonight, but mostly misses our CWA. There is a chance that clouds could advect in with the cold front, so increased sky cover, but not to an overcast threshold. Thursday should be equally as nice though a tad cooler as high pressure builds keeping clouds to a minimum.
836 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 VFR conditions under high pressure. /issued 459 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep trough of low pressure sagging along mid-Atlantic region with ridging further west, out over the high Plains. Clockwise flow around this feature has allowed for light northerly flow across the peninsula today, drawing in a drier and cooler airmass. Maximum temperatures have once again struggled to reach the lower 70s, much cooler than average for this time of year. By tonight, a second impulse of dry and cooler air will reach our CWA from the north. However, dry conditions will remain with maximum temperatures still struggling to reach the low to mid 70s.
Skies were partly cloudy across the Lower Keys, with sunny skies east of Vaca Key. Temperatures will rebound into the lower 70s tomorrow as breezes diminish and veer to the east. From synopsis, an area of high pressure will move eastward along the northern Gulf Coast overnight and Thursday.
Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a narrow but sharp upper level ridge stretching from the Yukon Territories through the front range of the Northern Rockies. Models and BUFKIT soundings indicate moistening up of the lower levels as winds turn more northeast this evening/overnight, with upslope flow across our western counties. For Thursday, the narrow ridge of high pressure mentioned above shifts into eastern North Dakota with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Per latest water vapor imagery, an upper low was seen circulating just west of Queen Charlotte Islands with an attending trough stretched south along the west coast.
750 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Aviation High pressure will retreat southeast tonight allowing a cold front to drop through the region.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the PAH forecast area into early Fri, as a strong area of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS moves eastward.
931 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 A weak cold front will settle south across the forecast area tonight with little fanfare. Areas in West-Central IL will get into the low 50s while areas in East-Central IL will be in the mid to upper 40s. A weak cold front will turn winds to the northwest overnight, but no precipitation is expected with the front. Lows will be around freezing, and I went lower than guidance suggested given clear skies and light winds. Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, and despite the cold front, high temps should be in the 50s.
Southerly winds have returned to the Midsouth and a ridge is beginning to build in from the West. As a result temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night. Areas near the Tennessee River may approach freezing, but most of the Midsouth should be in the middle to upper 30s. Temperatures will trend warmer. A 1027 mb high pressure area is located over the lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will shift east-southeast toward Florida. Northeast Mississippi tends to be the coldest in this kind of pattern and temps there will get down to near freezing. Warmer southwest winds will bring temps to near the 70F mark on Thursday under mostly sunny skies.
A cold front will sweep through the area tonight. Cooler, but mostly dry conditions will then affect the region through the weekend.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 920 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Cold high pressure has settled over the state and mid 30s along with possibility of patchy frost are forecast once again for coldest northern locations for the first time in awhile. A high pressure ridge will build across the peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico on Thu, diminishing winds below 10 knots with seas subsiding to 3-4 feet. A high pressure ridge will build across the area from the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure and VFR conditions will be expected through the TAF period.
VFR conditions through this TAF cycle as high pressure takes over across the region.
755 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 A quiet short term period through tomorrow with high pressure maintaining control across the Upper Midwest. This area of high pressure will continue sinking in from our north, and overnight lows should fall off efficiently under clear skies with light winds. Sunny skies again tomorrow but slightly cooler temperatures are expected under northerly flow.
940 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. Dry weather and partial clearing is expected elsewhere under this ridging, though minimal snow shower chances should begin to increase just before sunrise as a cold front approaches. With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
The air mass in this area is relatively dry with dew points in the lower 30s so any measurable rain from these showers will be isolated in nature.
At the surface, high pressure will build overhead tonight. This will allow temps to drop to near or slightly below freezing across much of the area away from the coast tonight. The high moves east of the area on Thursday with a light return flow developing by the afternoon.
High pressure over the Gulf Coast states will keep mostly clear skies over the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 63 43 68 / 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 61 43 58 / 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 31 61 43 57 / 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 57 37 48 / 0 0 10 30.
1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 At 1 PM, high pressure was providing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will keep skies mainly clear through Thursday morning. These clouds are associated with some moisture spilling over top of the 500 mb ridge. 5C colder than this afternoon, the high temperatures will be about 5F colder than today.
743 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
1053 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Cool high pressure will settle into the area tonight and allow for some cooler readings as winds remain light into the night.
Should still be a bit warmer than last night due to the persistent onshore flow. The onshore flow will lead to slightly warmer min temps tonight along with increasing moisture. With the increased moisture/clouds on Thu, highs should be similar to today's values and slightly warmer for Thu night lows.
/issued 459 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep trough of low pressure sagging along mid-Atlantic region with ridging further west, out over the high Plains. Clockwise flow around this feature has allowed for light northerly flow across the peninsula today, drawing in a drier and cooler airmass. Maximum temperatures have once again struggled to reach the lower 70s, much cooler than average for this time of year. By tonight, a second impulse of dry and cooler air will reach our CWA from the north. However, dry conditions will remain with maximum temperatures still struggling to reach the low to mid 70s.
1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 A weak cold front will settle south across the forecast area tonight with little fanfare. Areas in West-Central IL will get into the low 50s while areas in East-Central IL will be in the mid to upper 40s. A weak cold front will turn winds to the northwest overnight, but no precipitation is expected with the front. Lows will be around freezing, and I went lower than guidance suggested given clear skies and light winds. Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, and despite the cold front, high temps should be in the 50s.
Lower ceilings will settle into the area overnight/Thursday as winds become northwest behind a cold front that is trailing this disturbance. VFR conditions are expected well into the overnight with an increased chance of cigs aob 5kft after 08z or so as cold front approaches from the northwest. Mostly clear skies will persist through the first half of the night as the high pressure ridge slides through. A deeper pool of moisture currently north of Lake Superior associated with strung out pva on the backside of the large trough over the northeast will advect into the area during the day. With weak caa and lesser sunshine then today, highs Thursday will struggle again for this time of year reaching the low 30s north to upper 30s south.
648 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Cool high pressure will settle into the area tonight and allow for some cooler readings as winds remain light into the night.
632 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 At 1 PM, high pressure was providing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will keep skies mainly clear through Thursday morning. These clouds are associated with some moisture spilling over top of the 500 mb ridge. 5C colder than this afternoon, the high temperatures will be about 5F colder than today.
The cloud cover could put the halt on temperatures and with the low level jet developing overnight, should see temperatures hold steady or rise through the second half of the night. The overnight forecast challenge is the low temperature forecast. A dry cold front will pass through the area Thursday before stalling in the TN Valley Thursday night. The models are coming into better agreement with this first disturbance, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a cutoff low transforming into more of a shallow trough as it moves over the Ohio Valley the first part of the weekend.
1039 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
A quiet short term period through tomorrow with high pressure maintaining control across the Upper Midwest. This area of high pressure will continue sinking in from our north, and overnight lows should fall off efficiently under clear skies with light winds. Sunny skies again tomorrow but slightly cooler temperatures are expected under northerly flow.
Proton Previous Discussion: Deep low along the Pacific NW coast will begin to influence the weather across NE Montana overnight tonight into Thursday as first in a series of weather disturbances swing NNE across NE MT producing a mixture of precipitation types, snow, freezing drizzle, freezing fog, and some rain mixing in Thursday afternoon, for areas mainly south of the Missouri River.
738 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. Snow showers should diminish this evening as an upper low exits and lapse rates decrease with sunset and warm advection aloft. With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
923 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure system at 1024 mb centered near LA will move to the FL west panhandle by 12z Thursday.
624 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Upper level ridging will dominate across the region tonight ahead of long wave trough that is located along the west coast. The base of the long wave trough will pivot toward southern Colorado by Thursday afternoon. A warm front will sharpen across northern KS Thursday afternoon, with highs well into the 80s across southwest KS to the south of the front.
1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 H5 pattern this morning had a trough of low pressure extending from the Ozarks southwest into Texas. West of the ridge, a trough of low pressure was situated from the British Columbia coast south into northern California. At the surface, high pressure was situated over eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. With high pressure dominating across the high plains his morning, skies were mainly clear and winds were light. High pressure will retreat east today into southeastern Kansas by late afternoon. Deep layer shear is on the order of 10 to 20 KTS along the trough later today so support for supercell thunderstorms is weak at best. Showers and thunderstorms arrive late Tuesday as a low pressure system over southern Canada drags a cold front across the northern Plains.
Thunderstorms coming off the higher elevation in eastern NM are not expected to make it far enough east to affect any terminal, but help produce some high clouds that will move into the western Panhandles later this evening.
225 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered showers accompany an upper level low through much of the workweek.
Tonight and Tuesday The main forecast focus to be on temperatures as high pressure to dominate northeast WI weather for the next several days. The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of high pressure centered over James Bay with a ridge axis extended southwest into northern sections of MN and WI. Clear and cool conditions are expected tonight as the ridge of high pressure to stretch from James Bay southwest into the Midwest. Look for min temperatures to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s north-central WI, to the lower 50s east-central WI. Tuesday Night Through Monday High pressure will keep the weather dry and quiet during the middle of the week.
A cold front will begin to push south through the area by late in the period, bringing a shift to light northerly winds. An upper level trough will continue to gradually swing east out of the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the next twenty-four hours. While there will be some decrease in convection this evening and overnight, good rain chances will remain across the forecast area tonight, as a cold front associated with the aforementioned upper trough, begins to sink south into the forecast area. High rainfall rates from torrential downpours, as a result of the very moist airmass entrenched over CWA with dew points in the lower 70s and precipitable H2O values around 2 inches, could also result in some localized flash flooding.
On Tuesday, we will continue to see an active northwest flow aloft, but should also see a decrease in moisture due to northerly flow in the low-levels.
/issued 1049 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ Center of upper low nearly ovhd.
The potential for overnight rain showers and afternoon showers and storms exists through the rest of the week before dry and warmer weather settles in this weekend. The main upper low will drop in from the nw over w-central NY during the day Tuesday and cause the convective showers and storms to re- develop. Steering flow within the upper low will be rather weak, so storm motion will be very slow. Upper low will slowly drift to the south Tuesday night and allow the showers and storms to end. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to mid 50s. Highs on Tuesday will only reach into the lower to mid 60s from w-central NY into ne PA.
Synoptic Setup: Near term begins with an area of hot high pressure over the Lower Intermountain West and a ridge jutting out of it through Wyoming and into the western Dakotas. Tuesday: High pressure will move in from the north along with cooler temperatures and stabilize out the atmosphere. Aloft the meso-ridge from the Washington will intensify and gain more influence over eastern Montana leading to clear skies and dry conditions.
209 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Latest upper analysis shows a high amplitude SW-NE oriented upper ridge extending from the SRN Rockies, across the nrn plains and then northward across Manitoba to Hudson Bay. An upper trough is currently approaching the forecast area from the west. With southeasterly winds, most observations are showing dewpoints in the lower 50s, however dewpoints adjacent to the western/downslope side of the Black Hills are only in the mid 30 to mid 40s. As the cold front moves into the forecast area. The cold front will continue to slowly move eastward, across south central SD on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, with readings in the 70s and lower 80s.
242 PM MST Mon Jun 5 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
An area of low pressure will track across Southern Virginia late this afternoon and then track out to sea this evening. An upper level low pressure area will then meander over the northeastern U.
110 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front over the area will move off to the southeast today. A trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through mid week.
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Rain and cooler conditions will dominate the start of the week as an upper level low moves overhead.
Widespread MVFR conditions will continue for much of the period, with IFR(and isolated LIFR) possible for all terminals as a low pressure system moves through the state. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper level low pressure system will move across Arkansas today and tonight. This should be the end of the rainy pattern as the low pressure area will move off to the southeast. An upper ridge over the Rockies today will build eastward on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today as an area of low pressure slowly moves through the area. A cold front then moves through on Tuesday followed by high pressure which will bring cooler and drier air. The cooler air will be noticed Tuesday night.
The main upper low is over the ArkLaTex region but it is the bottom end of a much larger upper level trough extending southeast from the central great lake states. As of right now areas south of the watch have not received the higher amounts like North GA so those areas can still handle a bit more precipitation.
Eastern Kansas sees modest northeast flow in the low to mid levels as a weak front slides in. This will bring cooler and drier air to the bulk of the area. Should be enough wind with this drying to combine to keep any fog at bay tonight with highs several degrees cooler for Tuesday, especially in the northeast.
Some weak frontogenesis at 850 and 700 mb will accompany the low, bringing a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the Missouri River area between Chamberlain and Pickstown after midnight tonight, which will continue west of the James River through Tuesday afternoon. Have cut back on pops for Tuesday and limited the eastward extent of any precipitation as this will be running into drier air pushing in from the east thanks to the Great Lakes high pressure. Thins will be slightly cooler on Tuesday, especially in the western areas, but highs will still be near normal around 80. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, and slightly cooler temperatures are the main impact through the end of the week, then very warm temperatures into the weekend.
In addition, freezing levels are rather low at about 6500 feet so could see some hail to dime size. Perhaps a few leftover showers across northeast lower overnight, otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies and a little cooler temperatures expected. Upper level low is slow to exit the region to the southeast. Otherwise, decreasing clouds and slightly warmer temperatures are expected. Pattern Forecast: Upper low over the lower Great Lakes/mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. while ridging extends from the desert southwest northward into northwest Ontario. This ridging will build southward into the upper Lakes for the midweek period. will be a slow process as troughing over the mid Atlantic/Ohio Valley will be reluctant to give way. Ridge will be getting flattened between upper level energy to the southeast and another piece of short wave energy coming in from the northwest.
Tuesday will be warm with more sun than today, before a backdoor cold front drops into the area by Wed morning. This will bring some drier air and allow the low temps to fall down into the 50s for some locations on Wed/Thu.
252 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) The persistent upper trough that has been bringing beneficial rain to west central Texas will continue to move towards the east and away from the area. Tuesday will be dry as upper ridging builds to our west.
1021 AM PDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Dry and warmer weather will linger through the first half of the work week, followed by more unsettled and much cooler weather by the end of the week.