Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid/upper level high pressure currently over northwestern Texas will move into northern Texas by tomorrow night. With the ridge in place to our north, and limited moisture (PWATs less than 1.
1202 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable weather to the region for today through much of Tuesday.
1037 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable weather to the region for today through much of Tuesday.
1158 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Synoptic Overview: Flow aloft will strengthen over the Central/Northern Rockies today as an upper level trough (presently situated in British Columbia) progresses eastward through Alberta into Saskatchewan. The aforementioned trough will amplify into a stalled /cut-off/ low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba Tonight and Tuesday -- maintaining broad cyclonic flow aloft over the Central- Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Today-Tonight: Strong insolation, differential heating, and strengthening /increasingly diffluent/ flow aloft are anticipated to aid in the development of diurnal convection along the Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide, and much of the CO/WY Front Range early this afternoon (19-21Z). At the start of the period, an area of high pressure persists across the southern Plains with upper troughing across the northern half of the CONUS.
The front will linger to our south through late week as Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several days. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by morning. Upper level ridging continues over the Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.
On Tuesday, cyclonic flow, vorticity and a weak cold front will bring a chance of precipitation to SE MT and Sheridan County.
328 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak cloud line developed and remains ongoing this afternoon across the Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore waters, including the Bayside waters. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
412 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, a number of the CAMs develop an MCS along the cold front over southern Iowa on nose of low level jet.
The ridge that has been in place over us gets pushed eastward and a cold front begins dropping southward into our area.
345 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Early this afternoon, upper-level ridging persisted over the southwest CONUS with northwest flow becoming more zonal across the central Plains. Lee troughing has increased southerly winds today, warming temperatures a few degrees above yesterday's highs into the low to mid 90s. Convection is progged to develop across western Kansas and Nebraska this evening, but models have been persistent in keeping the CWA dry with more stable air and warmer low-level temperatures in place. Temperatures will fall into the low 70s. The aforementioned surface cold front progresses southeast through Nebraska and into northeast Kansas by late Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the low to mid 90s coupled with dewpoints in the low 70s will create a muggy afternoon with heat index values of 100-105 degrees especially in east central Kansas.
At noon, Hamilton, Granbury, and Breckenridge were all reporting 99 F. While ridging aloft should keep a cap on most convection, there may be just enough convergence near the stationary front (and instability is certainly not a problem given the dewpoints) to get a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. There is not much support for this in the high-resolution guidance, but the GFS shows some low QPF, and the synoptic/mesoscale setup favors at least minimal PoP mention. /Issued 344 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Our region will remain along the eastern edge of the upper level high mid week, resulting in hot and mostly rain-free conditions.
234 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable weather to the region for tonight through much of Tuesday.
As a cold front drifts southward overnight, the chance for showers will continue after midnight north of a Douglas to Scottsbluff line. Quite a variance in the models with respect to maximum temperatures with the NAM MOS much cooler than the GFS MOS.
Sun will be out in full force today and while it won't be as hot as it will be later this week, I think we still creep into the low 90s in a few spots. A ridge of high pressure remains situated to our west, and there will be little change in the weather pattern during the next 24 hrs.
1237 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A slow-moving upper level trough will swing over Pennsylvania early this week bringing fair and comfortably warm conditions. A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week. However, falling heights ahead of approaching upper trough axis will support the chance of an isolated shower late in the day, mainly over the northern tier counties. Expect fair weather tonight with patchy late night fog, as high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass build in from the Grt Lks. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the lowest minimum temperatures we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
Interior areas are forecast to cool through midweek as onshore flow increases and high pressure weakens. The marine layer is back in full swing thanks to the weakening upper-level ridge, which has trekked eastward into the Texas Panhandle. Min temps across the interior were observed in the upper 50s to low 60s F range with higher- elevation areas like those up in the East Hills just barely making it into the low 60s F.
Aside from a few showers/thunderstorms with brief heavy rain in Northwest Montana this afternoon, dry and gradually warmer weather will last through mid week under northwest flow.
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak cloud line developed and remains ongoing this afternoon across the Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore waters, including the Bayside waters. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
Winds have been light out of the north around 5 to 10 mph in response to this high, and T/Td's for mid July are fairly tolerable, with many locations seeing temperatures in the low to mid 80s at this hour with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. High temperatures will be a touch warmer than today, with many locations seeing upper 80s to near 90. Upper-level ridge slide off to the east as the upper jet continues to straddle the US/Canadian border.
A broad upper trough is extending into the Intermountain West, slowly progressing eastward. The next few days look to be warm and dry as we keep an eye on the developing high pressure over the Four Corners area.
Dry and seasonable weather will continue through Tuesday night under the influence of high pressure.
An upper trof over the eastern states finally moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday. In response, an upper ridge centered along the Mexico/U.
1020 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak, mainly dry cold front will move continue pushing south into central Utah today, where it will weaken in place through Tuesday. High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest Monday. This weather is associated with a trough moving across the Northern Rockies which will provide some slightly cooler temperatures across northern Utah today in the wake of the surface cold front that moved through overnight and is currently moving into central Utah where it will tend to stall this afternoon.
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A closed upper low sits over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan early this afternoon, with a trough axis extending down through Saskatchewan toward northeast Montana. To the west of this trough, a drier and cooler air mass is advecting into western North Dakota. As the upper trough axis pivots toward northern North Dakota later this afternoon, there may be enough cyclonic forcing to generate a few showers or weak thunderstorms, but a lack of boundary layer moisture will likely prevent stronger or more widespread activity from developing.
The upper ridge that had its grip on our weather will relax some and general ridging will reside over the region. Temperatures will still be warm and rise into the lower to mid 90s through the week.
/issued 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/ The ridge persists over the Southern Rockies this morning with northwest flow aloft across the MS/OH Valleys. Temperatures today will top out in the lower 90s across most of the CWA with light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week, bringing increasing warmth and humidity. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the coolest night we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
A ridge of high pressure will follow, building over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Scattered showers/tstms have initially focused near a weak trough/frontal boundary across the Pee Dee, but remain widely scattered elsewhere across the forecast area. Geopotential heights will begin to rise across the area Tuesday as a ridge axis builds across the Tennessee River Valley. This will allow temps to once again surge into the low- mid 90s, and will also keep showers/tstms fairly isolated.
246 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Ridging covers the area for the first part of this week, preventing widespread formation of showers or storms. A front may pass through the area later in the week, moving us out from under the subtropical ridge. A ridge has started to build into the area, and with that comes lower chances for storms. A few cells are forming up along the Blue Ridge, mostly in North Carolina. Clouds will clear overnight and Tuesday will be mostly clear with the ridge overhead. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for locations east of the Blue Ridge, upper 80s for those in the mountains.
With temps running a few degrees warmer than today, afternoon heat indices will range from 100-105F across portions of north MS and east-central AR. The obvious dominant feature in this forecast period will be the upper-level ridge. This ridge is currently anchored over the Southern Rockies but will build eastward over the coming days. As this ridge expands across the southern CONUS, the jet stream will lift poleward into the Great Lakes region.
With the increased rain chances, the high temp forecast dropped a tiny bit, but will still be in the middle 90s.
Subtropical high pressure will then build across the region through late week. Expect typical North Carolina summertime lows overnight, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 70s. With a little bit less cloud cover around, high temperatures should creep up a couple degrees bringing all locations into the lower 90s. No showers/storms are expected after sunset Tuesday night, and lows will fall into the low to mid 70s.
Medium to High Mid level and surface ridging dominate tonight. The surface and mid level ridging shifts eastward into Tuesday.
Warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Dry air, from building high pressure to our west, will help mix the boundary layer throughout the afternoon/evening.
Cold front associated with low pressure along the US/Canadian border extending into central South Dakota. As cold front works east this evening, expect cap to be weakened, but thunderstorm chances will likely have to wait until convection associated with a short wave moving from western Nebraska approaches after 03Z Tuesday. With cloudy conditions and cooler air moving in aloft, expect surface temperatures to remain in the 60s to lower 70s.
305 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper level ridge producing the pleasant weather across the region is moving east as a progressive trough slides across the US-Canadian border near MT and SAS. Synoptic models are fairly similar in timing with respect to dropping a cold front into Iowa tomorrow.
124 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper trough over the Pacific NW is pushing into the northern plains, with a jet streak rounding its base. The cold front has crossed the CWA, leaving breezy northwesterly winds behind it. Limited moisture behind the cold front will keep instability low across much of the CWA; however, with MLCAPE of 1-2 kJ/kg across south central SD, along with 40-50 kts 0-6 km shear there (even higher farther west), a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Overnight, a secondary cold front will push through the region. As cool high pressure slides into the area Tuesday, precip will diminish in the morning.
1202 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The cold front is sliding southward across the state currently, as noted in IR imagery and Td increases after passage. With the trough passing by this afternoon, instability will be enough to spark some showers and thunderstorms across the northern zones and Natrona County during the afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will move through the state late this evening, helping the moisture farther south, while bringing even more mild air to the region.
High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with low tonight in the low to mid 70s. The upper level trough pushes off the coast and upper heights will be building. Temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
Mid/upper-level ridging over west/northwest Texas will continue to influence hot and dry conditions across deep South Texas through the short-term. A slight "cooling trend" will begin tomorrow as a weakening on the southern edge of the ridge works its way over northeast Mexico and South Texas. Afternoon high temperatures tomorrow are expected to be about 2-3 degrees cooler than today, which should keep temperatures and heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria. Breezy and gusty winds are expected to continue tomorrow afternoon as thermal troughing and deepening low pressure inland interacts with high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico.
305 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 While the pesky stratus deck has improved and now just some more typical summertime afternoon cu field is in place, the rest of today should remain unimpactful and even more pop limited due to the much drier column and upper ridging. Tuesday looks almost cookie-cutter with slight pops in the far NE mtns for isolated orographic enhancement and again slight pops in the far southern tier as we remain under the drier ridging and a bit broader NW flow aloft. We start the period with 500mb heights of 589dm and slight northwesterly flow and rise to as high as 596dm per model guidance as the southwestern US ridge expands east by Thu and down to around 592dm or so by the weekend.
An upper level ridge over the western half of the U. That ridge will slide eastward over the next 48 hours and I hate to say it, but it's going to be with us for awhile.
With that said, environment is still favorable for severe storms, especially along the southern edge of the warmer mid-level temperatures and will need to remain vigilant. A cold front with stronger low level forcing will be entering eastern North Dakota this evening, and this surface convergence may be enough for storms to develop if environment remains favorable. After the main upper trough axis shifts east a secondary lobe of positive vorticity advection moves south of our CWA and elevated showers/storms may redevelop into the southern half of our CWA late tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front during this period.
High pressure settles in over the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, bringing a return to dry conditions. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east, with highs on Tuesday in the 70s. In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft starts the out period, with the upper ridge sitting over the Rockies. As we approach the weekend, the upper ridge shifts over the midwest, setting up a warming trend moving into the weekend.
1246 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A surface level high pressure hangs out in the area Monday bringing another warm day. The low level jet orients itself SW to NE from W TX to the KC metro.
Convection will decrease this evening and should end by midnight as lift from the upper level trough passing north of Colorado shifts east of the state and due to a stabilizing airmass. A cold front will push south across eastern Colorado early Tuesday morning. Northeast winds will increase low level moisture in additional to ushering in cooler air. As the low clouds erode, temperatures should climb in the 70s and possibly lower 80s across eastern Colorado. So supercell thunderstorms will be possible if temperatures warm into the lower/mid 80s and the cap can be broken.
919 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Showers and storms starting to spread into the western cwa this evening with a short wave trough. High pressure settles in over the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, bringing a return to dry conditions. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east, with highs on Tuesday in the 70s. In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft starts the out period, with the upper ridge sitting over the Rockies. As we approach the weekend, the upper ridge shifts over the midwest, setting up a warming trend moving into the weekend.
Warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
At 6 PM CDT a cold front was progressing through eastern North Dakota. A closed upper low sits over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan early this afternoon, with a trough axis extending down through Saskatchewan toward northeast Montana. To the west of this trough, a drier and cooler air mass is advecting into western North Dakota. As the upper trough axis pivots toward northern North Dakota later this afternoon, there may be enough cyclonic forcing to generate a few showers or weak thunderstorms, but a lack of boundary layer moisture will likely prevent stronger or more widespread activity from developing.
716 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable weather to the region for tonight through much of Tuesday.
An upper level ridge producing the pleasant weather across the region is moving east as a progressive trough slides across the US-Canadian border near MT and SAS. Synoptic models are fairly similar in timing with respect to dropping a cold front into Iowa tomorrow.
No changes to the persistent pattern over south Texas with the upper level ridge axis just north of the region and very dry air mass in place. A mid/upper level high pressure currently over northwestern Texas will move into northern Texas by tomorrow night. With the ridge in place to our north, and limited moisture (PWATs less than 1.
932 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A clear and quiet evening is in store across the area with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Winds have been light out of the north around 5 to 10 mph in response to this high, and T/Td's for mid July are fairly tolerable, with many locations seeing temperatures in the low to mid 80s at this hour with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. High temperatures will be a touch warmer than today, with many locations seeing upper 80s to near 90. Upper-level ridge slide off to the east as the upper jet continues to straddle the US/Canadian border.
719 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper trough will push off the coast overnight. Partly cloudy skies are expected overnight and the the combination of clouds and relatively high dewpoints will limit radiational cooling and overnight lows are expected in the low to mid 70s. The upper level trough pushes off the coast and upper heights will be building. Temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
(This evening through Tuesday) Severe thunderstorms are anticipated to develop in the high plains over the next several hours as a lee side trough develops along the northern periphery of a persistent upper ridge centered near El Paso, TX.
716 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Ridging covers the area for the first part of this week, preventing widespread formation of showers or storms. A front may pass through the area later in the week, moving us out from under the subtropical ridge. Upper level trough and surface front are well east of the area this evening. With dry air and high pressure building in the wake of the trough, rain chances are approaching zero. Clouds will clear overnight and Tuesday will be mostly clear with the ridge overhead. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for locations east of the Blue Ridge, upper 80s for those in the mountains.
A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week, bringing increasing warmth and humidity. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the coolest night we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the lower 50s in the coolest valleys of the north (before some stratuco develops over parts of the NW mtns) and to the lower 60s across the southeast counties.
The most intense storms should quickly move east of the area by 06Z with chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight behind an advancing cold front. Much cooler behind the front with considerable stratus and stratocumulus persisting into the afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday night as an h500 trough moves into the area.
A mid-upr trough axis has passed and is moving through ern NC, with associated trailing subsidence and drying aloft now overspreading wrn and cntl NC. With a little bit less cloud cover around, high temperatures should creep up a couple degrees bringing all locations into the lower 90s. No showers/storms are expected after sunset Tuesday night, and lows will fall into the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will shift eastward during the next couple of days and allow a weak upper level disturbance to settle southward into California.
608 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
/issued 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020/ While the pesky stratus deck has improved and now just some more typical summertime afternoon cu field is in place, the rest of today should remain unimpactful and even more pop limited due to the much drier column and upper ridging. Tuesday looks almost cookie-cutter with slight pops in the far NE mtns for isolated orographic enhancement and again slight pops in the far southern tier as we remain under the drier ridging and a bit broader NW flow aloft. We start the period with 500mb heights of 589dm and slight northwesterly flow and rise to as high as 596dm per model guidance as the southwestern US ridge expands east by Thu and down to around 592dm or so by the weekend.
Early this afternoon, upper-level ridging persisted over the southwest CONUS with northwest flow becoming more zonal across the central Plains. Lee troughing has increased southerly winds today, warming temperatures a few degrees above yesterday's highs into the low to mid 90s. Convection is progged to develop across western Kansas and Nebraska this evening, but models have been persistent in keeping the CWA dry with more stable air and warmer low-level temperatures in place. Temperatures will fall into the low 70s. The aforementioned surface cold front progresses southeast through Nebraska and into northeast Kansas by late Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the low to mid 90s coupled with dewpoints in the low 70s will create a muggy afternoon with heat index values of 100-105 degrees especially in east central Kansas.