Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY PROVIDE MORE EASTERLY WINDS TO KELD AND KMLU. AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING EAST.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT LEAVING ONLY A COL ALOFT.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH FOUND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EVEN WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ATOP THE REGION.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ECFL THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT VEERING SW/WSW WINDS TO WNW/NW. N/NW SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FAIRLY STRONG REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 0.
517 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure will be briefly sullied by a cold front tonight into Saturday, but the threat of precipitation will be limited.
1206 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA, AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND DRIER, COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID STATE.
MEAN TROUGH HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN U. STILL SHOULD BE A COUPLE SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS SHOULD HELP MINS GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 38 55 34 67 / 10 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 50 30 64 / 20 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 52 30 64 / 20 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 48 25 59 / 60 10 0 0 NC.
945 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
1255 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
GREATER MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE SERRNIAS DEL BURROS WITH THE LOWEST CLOUDS NEAR KDRT AND INCREASE IN HEIGHT TOWARDS KAUS. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPS IN THE RRV PROBABLY NEAR THE LOW POINT AND ERN FCST HAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES TO FALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH CURRENT T VALUES BLO FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS BARELY OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES. WITH WARMER COLUMN AND MIXING TEMPERATURES NOT NEAR AS COLD.
TEMPS SOUTH OF I 80 AND OFF OF THE RIDGES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO INITIAL ACCUMULATION WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS. FOR THE RIDGES. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY.
338 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AFFECTED BY WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAK SFC RIDGING PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION.
341 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS RIDGE WAS BETWEEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER WYOMING. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY. WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. THE LOW OVER WYOMING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK.
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
Late in the forecast (03Z/21) winds turn w ahead a strong cold front. Another upper trough will begin to move over the Central Plains by Friday evening. This trough will send colder air southward into the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. Temperatures behind the front on Saturday will be quite a bit cooler with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s expected across most of the area.
Temperatures were in the low to upper 50s with very dry air in place at the surface as dewpoints were in the teens to 20s. Some eastern Ozarks locations in the valleys may wind up in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure will move into the area and will drop readings into the teens to low 20s across the area.
1132 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. /ISSUED 521 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR OVER ARKANSAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST.
242 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER THERMAL BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THAT AMOUNT IS ON THE HIGH END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS REGION AT THIS TIME /NEAR KBNO- KBOI LINE/ WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ALONG FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
A SLOWLY VEERING WIND TO ONSHORE THROUGH DAY AHEAD OF AN EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE N GREAT LAKES AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS NEXT STRONG TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE BLOWING THROUGH WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A cold front has cleared our southeast Big Bend counties this morning with a little bit of low cloudiness stubbornly lagging behind the front. To the northwest, expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 70s.
BILLINGS WRIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG IT AS IT IMPACTS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS MON ABOUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SUN. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SAGGING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 950 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO RAISE/LOWER SOME PORTIONS OF AREA BASED ON OBSERVED RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS AND SECONDARY ADVECTION OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTH. INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT US THE SQUALL LINE YESTERDAY IS FINALLY KICKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO ALABAMA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE PARENT CYCLONE MIGRATES WELL INTO CANADA. KOVACIK ALL MODELS ARE INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
QUIET WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
144 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION. EARLY THIS EVENING, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND WAS RIDGING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
329 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A TASTE OF WINTER TO CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. /TODAY/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY TODAY.
THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS A GOOD BET. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A STRONG FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS IS NOT AS CERTAIN AS 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN SOME SLOWING OF THE PARENT TROUGH EXITING WYOMING. UNSEASONABLY COLD SURFACE RIDGING THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY COMPLETE WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AT 850MB FOR MOST/ALL OF THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A TASTE OF WINTER TO CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. /TODAY/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
GENERALLY SKY IS FORECAST WITH NO ISSUES UNTIL ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. /ISSUED 417 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. WITH RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DECENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOWS COULD DIP TO BELOW 36 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING TEMPS THIS SEASON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
Surface temperatures will remain at or above freezing during the majority of the precipitation event, and road surfaces will remain relatively warm.
The high moves east, with temps seasonal for mid Nov. Relatively energetic mid level trof will contain adequate moisture and forcing for mainly light showers Saturday. 1030mb high builds in in the wake of the front, with Saturday night lows in the lower to mid 20s forecast.
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. PREV DISCUSSION --> HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF SATURDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE OVERRUNNING PCPN THAT AFFECTS NRN INDIANA AND NW OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM 20-25 AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OTHER THAN RAISING THE HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
300 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 High pressure is sliding east across the region this morning, with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s across the area as of 3AM. Arctic high pressure will then move into the area Saturday night, with winds becoming light and variable overnight.
1126 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RVR VALLEY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THE ADIABATIC COOLING OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH ANY PRECIP.
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. MODELS INDICATE SUBTLE TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW REMAIN STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 40S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. ACCUMS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY LEADING TO MORE COMPACTION. ALSO EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND LOW SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO FREEZING AND MORE ISSUES.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE WARM AIR WILL BE VERY TEMPORARY DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
Increasing lift in advance of the associated mid level cold front will bring rain chances tonight. The precip should end before cold enough air works its way into the region in the low levels behind the strong cold front.
1254 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EAST WINDS 5 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 151 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO ENTER OUR NW ZONES NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SAT. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
1256 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ZIP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM ABT ROC NY-JST PA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY BNDRY LAYER TO CUT OFF ANY ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR/CHILLY WX WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND IS BARELY NOTICEABLE IN SURFACE OBS AS OF 03Z.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPENING DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS VARY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEEPENS. A PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY BUMP TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR A TAD ABOVE FREEZING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS WOULD BE TO CUT DOWN RATIOS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR A TIME.
BY 12Z SATURDAY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SHOWERS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.
335 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 The main topic of interest in the short term continues to be the strong cold front this weekend.
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING MORE RAIN.
248 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. A COLD FRONT WILL ZIP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
/ISSUED 926 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 302 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS RANGED FROM NEAR 60F NORTH TO THE LOW 70'S SOUTH. AFTER SEEING WARMER HIGHS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THE MODELS THAT INCREASING WAA SHOULD PROVIDE FOR WARMER THAN FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND MAY BE TOO WARM. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAVE A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 850 MB. WILL NEED TO RELY ON PRECIPITATION LOADING BELOW THIS LAYER FOR SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ONSET. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION TO OCCUR QUICKLY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR SFC WETBULBS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING RAPIDLY. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AND COULD HAVE LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
355 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 A COLD FRONT AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL LEAVE THE HIGH LIGHTS AS THEY ARE. MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WHICH WILL FAVOR ZONE 31 BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING LAPSE RATES AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE REGION.
122 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXTEND COOLER COASTAL AIR. THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS WEEK. MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOCAL AS THE UPPER HIGH REPOSITIONS ITSELF AND THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED N-S.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE STATE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING GENERALLY STAYS IN PLACE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT BREAK DOWN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BY START OF THE WEEK.
AXIS OF THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST OF FL. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS SLIGHT/GRADUAL NWD LIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR LAKE OKEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THU-SUN (MODIFIED PREV) MID LVL HTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVER THE SERN CONUS STARTING FRI AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH ERODES.
632 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THESE INCREASED WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE LATER IN ADVANCE OF OUR FRONT COMING BACK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOME VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTREMES TO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
HOT AND STICKY OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG YET. MICROBURST PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NE ACROSS NE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VC OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS WHICH STILL REMAINS OVER EXTREME ERN OK INTO ECNTRL TX. THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS SHOULD ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES SW TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FLAT FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN POP-FREE AND HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS RIDGE WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. WE WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE RUNNING COOLER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING MONDAY.
STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION/0-1KM HELICITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED SHOULD COOLER LAKE ENVIRONMENT SLOW NWD PUSH OF SFC WARM FNTL BNDRY/LAKE ENHANCED TRIPLE POINT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS CDFNT PROVIDING FAIR WX TUE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WED.