Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps today will be much cooler over the southeast plains, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 60s. The high valley and mtn areas should see temps similar to, or a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds today and tonight will mostly be 10 mph or less at the lower elevations.
Toward the end of the week, models are depicting ridging building over the SE CONUS, creating an increasingly amplified pattern as a trough crosses the Intermountain West. For the latter portion of the TAF period, STJ may need to be monitored for its typical visby issues it experiences in the fall behind a cold front (thanks to the formation of river fog).
Surface cold front is still back in Illinois, but will be entering portions of southern Indiana within the next couple of hours. Temps continue to fall overnight with high pressure building into the region.
Conditions are expected to improve by mid-morning across western Arkansas as a cold front continues to surge south and east of the area. /Issued 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue behind cold front that has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this morning.
901 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Now that daytime warming has kicked in across the area, temperatures across much of the Grand Valley and southeast Utah have climbed back to above freezing. Cooler air is in place today following yesterday's cold frontal passage. Low temperatures this morning will be significantly below normal and growing season-ending freezes area expected in the Grand Valley, Utah's Grand Flat and the Canyonlands and Bridges N.
856 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Easterly steering flow will push weakening coastal trof onshore this afternoon and still expect Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as daytime temps remain above normal into the middle to upper 80s.
A trough of low pressure will bring breezy conditions and a slight chance of showers by late in the week. A building ridge of high pressure over the southwest part of the country will be the dominant weather feature for the next several days. Latest long range model guidance has come into a bit better agreement in regards to a trough moving onto the West Coast late in the week.
731 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 A weak warm front passes east of the area today followed by a cold frontal passage tonight.
Cold front is quickly pushing south across EWX CWA and should enter the northern portion of CRP CWA within the next hour or two. Cooler air is lagging a bit behind the front, but should begin to push into the area by mid to late afternoon.
/issued 437 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Broad 500 mb ridging overhead will shift east over the central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. The higher dew points, along with light winds and mostly clear skies may allow some patchy fog to develop across the ranchlands and brush country overnight. High temperatures Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s near the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the west.
/issued 416 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ A mid/upper level trough is moving offshore of the US East Coast today. The associated surface cold front will push through south Florida this morning before stalling out over the area through tonight. The highest PWATs associated with the frontal boundary should be far south enough by Thursday.
942 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. Mid level ridging moves into New Eng today with rather dry column and moderating temps aloft. High pressure builds south of New England today, resulting in plenty of sunshine and milder W/SW flow with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Highs should end up a few degrees warmer than today, mainly in low to mid 70s, except 60s near south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. This will fall a bit short of tomorrow's record highs which are in the low to mid 80s (BOS 84 in 1945, PVD 83 in 2016, BDL 82 in 1963, ORH 81 in 1963).
A passing upper-level trough bringing a few high clouds into Eastern KY early this morning. At the surface, high pressure is anchoring over the Mid-Atlantic states and will ridge across the Appalachians through Thursday. By then we also will have ridging aloft, making for a couple of dry days, with a little warmer temperatures each day.
Although temperatures will still be above normal, they will be over 10F cooler than yesterday as breezy northwest winds push cooler air into the region. Gusts of 20 to near 30kts are also expected behind the cold front. High pressure over western SD at 18Z will shift over central NE by 00Z Thursday, with a ridge extending across the entire forecast area. The pressure gradient will increase in between this exiting high and low pressure over southwestern Canada. General zonal flow aloft will be replaced by a ridge Thursday afternoon, that will stretch southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. The 500mb ridge will move to the eastern U.
1001 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning. High pressure will build this afternoon and move east tonight. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday night.
1148 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will result in dry weather and a warming trend into the weekend. High pressure will dominate with little moisture to speak of. Eastern CONUS ridge will persist through the weekend.
The atmosphere will need to overcome a dry atmosphere that was ushered in by a cold frontal passage several days ago. Expect a bit warmer day as a result compared to yesterday with temperatures generally running either side of 80 degrees for afternoon highs. This warming trend will continue through the end of the work week as weak upper ridging builds in later today through Thursday.
A weak area of low pressure developing over southern California will slowly move east into southern Nevada by this evening.
A Pacific cold front will move through during the day and the cooler air will lower h850mb temperatures from 20C to 10-15C.
Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto the Plains. At the surface a cold front was following the short wave trough over Central Wyoming. Today a weak cold front will move through the forecast area. The north half will have more time in the slightly cooler air today. Behind the cold front northerly winds will become breezy during the late morning and into the early afternoon.
Cold front has moved to the east early this morning. NW winds will be diminishing as high pressure builds into eastern Montana today. Plan on canceling the High Wind Warning with the forecast issuance. While temperatures will 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, they will be near normal for mid October. Flat zonal ridge will build into Montana today and move across Eastern Montana tonight. Flow aloft will turn to the southwest Thursday morning as the ridge moves to the east and an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific. Thermal ridge will build back into Montana which will allow for warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s for highs.
A very strong cold front now crossing central ND will continue to plow east, shifting through the James River Valley by 7AM CDT. Aside from the strong winds, mostly sunny and much cooler today with highs in the 50s north, to lower 60s far south.
We will definitely see a dip in temperatures as heights fall from the approaching trough. As this first trough pulls away, the next trough we will deal with will be developing over the Pacific NW.
736 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast. The approaching trough will weaken as it impinges upon the area tonight but with little fanfare as the column is far too dry to support any sensible weather.
With sunny skies today, highs will be be in the lower to mid 80s. The cooler readings (lower 50s) are expected in low-lying areas and along river valleys of some of our eastern and southern counties, where winds will once again become light.
Strong cold front will move east through the forecast area this morning and midday. Otherwise the highest 850 mb winds do retreat to north of the border during the late morning and midday when the best mixing occurs and mixing layer goes to 840-820 mb.
A cold front will be dropping in today which will be the main focus in the short term for a couple reasons despite it passing through dry. High temperatures ahead of the front should reach levels similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer given the head start we have this morning in the 50s. This will allow min RH values to reach the low to mid 20s as dew points drop into the 20s and 30s. The brief trough will swing through this evening and WAA will already be redeveloping overnight.
This has kept the dry weather conditions, with cooler than normal weather. Today Through Thursday Night The forecast will stay dry in the short term with overall high pressure the main influence over the region.
Temps a bit warmer as the gradual warmup has taken hold. Temperatures are in the lower 60s right along the coast modified by the Gulf waters. This combined with a ridge aloft will keep fair conditions in place. Air mass will gradually modify as wind flow in the low levels becomes more easterly and southeasterly. The upper level ridge will also move further to the east over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and allow a short wave to approach the forecast area.
Upper air analysis last evening showed northwesterly flow over Texas between a trough to the east and ridge to the west. The upper level ridge will move across Texas during the next 24 hours. The low level flow will become southeasterly increasing moisture in the boundary layer. Thursday an upper level trough will move in from the west and combined with the deeper moisture over the eastern half of our area may produce some showers and thunderstorms.
Main weather new for today: Cooler daytime high temperatures with lower wind speeds. Cold front has moved to the east early this morning. NW winds will be diminishing as high pressure builds into eastern Montana today. Plan on canceling the High Wind Warning with the forecast issuance. While temperatures will 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, they will be near normal for mid October. Flat zonal ridge will build into Montana today and move across Eastern Montana tonight. Flow aloft will turn to the southwest Thursday morning as the ridge moves to the east and an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific. Thermal ridge will build back into Montana which will allow for warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s for highs.
1028 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast.
At this time, kept the lowest conditions at tri where ceilings could be in the lifr range with saturated conditions developing in the first couple hundred feet above the tarmac.
731 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. High pressure builds south of New England today, resulting in plenty of sunshine and milder W/SW flow with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Highs should end up a few degrees warmer than today, mainly in low to mid 70s, except 60s near south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. This will fall a bit short of tomorrow's record highs which are in the low to mid 80s (BOS 84 in 1945, PVD 83 in 2016, BDL 82 in 1963, ORH 81 in 1963).
Surface analysis this morning places a 1030 MB ridge of high pressure over West Virginia. This is bringing another night of rain free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
/issued 1028 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ Temperatures rebounding into the lower to middle 60s at 10 am.
Stout southwest gradient will be in place locally in response to very deep low pressure system passing through northern Canadian provinces. Quiet weather pattern through the upcoming weekend as ridging aloft and at the surface reside over the region for the most part.
Dewpts a bit slow to lower this morning but overall should have drier mixing given the highly moisture starved column. /Issued 722 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ High pressure will dominate the short term forecast period, with cooler and drier airmass remaining over the state. Highs today will generally be in the low to mid 70s, except the 60s in the NE GA mountains. Thursday, temperatures will be 4-6 degrees warmer, with temperatures in the low 70s north to near 80s south. Period still starts out dry with a gradual warming trend back to above normal temperatures through the end of the work week as upper-level ridging builds across the region.
Strong high pressure ridging continues to prevail over the region today along with a very dry airmass. /15/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry and slightly warmer. Early morning surface analysis had a 1028mb high centered over the central Appalachians and ridging back across the Gulf coast states. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather and warmer temperatures today and tonight. Under clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to morning lows slightly cooler than normal.
Surface cold front is being pushed into this region as well with a weak lee trough along the foothills of the Rockies extending into the TX panhandle. Into the day today, pre-frontal trough and weak/highly modified cold front works into the area slowly this afternoon as upper trough translates into the northern Great Lakes region. As it does so, mid-level ridge builds over the Central Plains. Lows should be a couple degrees cooler with a less well mixed BL and thus better radiative cooling.
1045 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Central and southeast Illinois remain sandwiched between slowly departing high pressure and a slowly approaching frontal system. The abundant insolation and southerly winds will push temperatures a little warmer than yesterday, with most areas topping out around 70 degrees. High pressure ridge axis stretches from the Southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure maintains control for Central IL with another mild day for the second half of October. Todays highs will climb into the lower 70s, with southerly winds continuing the warm air advection for the region. The warmer airmass in place will keep the overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s/upper 40s.
Temperatures are in the lower 60s right along the coast modified by the Gulf waters. This combined with a ridge aloft will keep fair conditions in place. Air mass will gradually modify as wind flow in the low levels becomes more easterly and southeasterly. The upper level ridge will also move further to the east over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and allow a short wave to approach the forecast area.
Brief period there 15-18z where some risk of 50 kt gust on the western edge of the RRV in the higher terrain, esp west of Cavalier ND. But overall winds for mixing will diminish slowly in the aftn so expecting to hold in the high end advisory range today for NE ND and the nrn RRV. Strong cold front will move east through the forecast area this morning and midday. Otherwise the highest 850 mb winds do retreat to north of the border during the late morning and midday when the best mixing occurs and mixing layer goes to 840-820 mb.
The breezy sswly winds will maintain a mild airmass over the region with the low level thermal ridge settling over the area this afternoon into the early evening. Went with high temps similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. A dry and weak cold front will then pass tonight with perhaps scattered clouds with its passage. The winds will become light late tonight as a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Continued dry and slightly warmer. Early morning surface analysis had a 1028mb high centered over the central Appalachians and ridging back across the Gulf coast states. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather and warmer temperatures today and tonight. Under clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to morning lows slightly cooler than normal.
920 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 The cold front that moved into South Florida last night has become nearly stationary over southern areas of South Florida this morning. /issued 416 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ A mid/upper level trough is moving offshore of the US East Coast today. The associated surface cold front will push through south Florida this morning before stalling out over the area through tonight. The highest PWATs associated with the frontal boundary should be far south enough by Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0.
A northwest flow pattern aloft will prevail across our region today and tonight to the east of an upper level ridge of high pressure that will gradually build from the western Gulf of Mexico and northward through Louisiana and Arkansas.
/Issued 342 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ High pressure will dominate the short term forecast period, with cooler and drier airmass remaining over the state. Highs today will generally be in the low to mid 70s, except the 60s in the NE GA mountains. Thursday, temperatures will be 4-6 degrees warmer, with temperatures in the low 70s north to near 80s south. Period still starts out dry with a gradual warming trend back to above normal temperatures through the end of the work week as upper-level ridging builds across the region.
LLWS setup time with some stronger winds remaining aloft associated with a wind max ahead of and slightly behind a trough. Winds shift to the WNW for a time after trough passage. Then a bubble of high pressure settles in for Thursday morning which slowly shifts off to the east Thursday afternoon. The breezy sswly winds will maintain a mild airmass over the region with the low level thermal ridge settling over the area this afternoon into the early evening. Went with high temps similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. A dry and weak cold front will then pass tonight with perhaps scattered clouds with its passage. The winds will become light late tonight as a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west.
The 11 pm surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary, decaying front from the central Gulf of Mexico through central FL, and a strong high pressure system to its north covering much of the eastern CONUS. With weak cold air advection persisting in the lower troposphere, high temperatures will only reach 75 to 80 (coolest north), despite ample sun.
High pressure ridge axis stretches from the Southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure maintains control for Central IL with another mild day for the second half of October. Todays highs will climb into the lower 70s, with southerly winds continuing the warm air advection for the region. The warmer airmass in place will keep the overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s/upper 40s.
A much more sizable trough and forcing/subsidence couplet will track across the northern Plains and southern Canada into the Great Lakes today and tonight however. This will stall along the IA/MO border by 12z with slightly cooler temps tonight, especially north. Forecast soundings suggest MOS is again on the low side with the high end of raw model guidance more appropriate versus 00z RAOBs and what occurred yesterday.
723 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast. The approaching trough will weaken as it impinges upon the area tonight but with little fanfare as the column is far too dry to support any sensible weather.
Light and variable surface winds are forecast today as the area remains between a large area of high pressure across the eastern U. NAM/WRF model showing a warmer 850 mb air overspreading far sw KS today accountable for models forecasting a slightly warmer high today in the low 80s. This still should be pleasant warm fall weather with dew points remaining in the low 40s west and northwest to near 50 in south central Kansas.
Afternoon highs today and morning lows on Thursday should be a couple of degrees warmer due to slow airmass modification.
Southerly winds will become gusty this afternoon in response to a lee trough developing ahead of the next storm system.
1241 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning. High pressure will build this afternoon and move east tonight. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday night.
Additionally, a strong low pressure systems situated and moving east across Manitoba into Ontario will continue to promote southwesterly winds, with diurnal mixing producing gusts between 20 - 25 kts during daylight hours. During the mid to late morning hours, a weak cold front will then push through Michigan, veering winds from SW to WSW. Quiet weather pattern through the upcoming weekend as ridging aloft and at the surface reside over the region for the most part.
A dry cold front is on track to move south by the afternoon bringing a NE to E wind push but no precipitation. The pressure rises will be sliding from north through east of us, but will turn the low level winds on the plains around to the north and then east. a weak southwesterly flow aloft will be over CO ahead of the next Pacific trough.
One more day of northwest flow aloft before the upper pattern evolves to southwesterly as ridging takes shape over the Plains in advance of highly amplified trough moving across the Western CONUS. With the northwest flow and upper ridging, expect dry weather to persist through the end of the work week. H85 thermal axis slides across the forecast area today in advance of a weak upper wave, and helping yield afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The warming trend should continue into Thursday as the upper ridge axis moves overhead, with some locations flirting near 80 degrees.
949 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend.
1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Hydro A large area of high pressure over the Central Appalachians will dominate our weather pattern over the next few days. A weakening cold front moves in from the northwest. Models are in decent agreement in showing the cold front currently in the Upper MS Valley to track southeast today and into the region tonight. Warm condition will prevail today a the low level thermal ridge moves in.
539 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto the Plains. At the surface a cold front was following the short wave trough over Central Wyoming. Today a weak cold front will move through the forecast area. The north half will have more time in the slightly cooler air today. Behind the cold front northerly winds will become breezy during the late morning and into the early afternoon.
1249 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Another pleasant day is in store as high pressure lingers over the area.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 800 am depict a fairly typical mid-fall pattern which is progressive with low amplitude troughing and ridging across much of the CONUS. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 800 am detail the center of a typical mid-autumnal sprawling near 1030 mb synoptic scale surface anticyclone centered over Western North Carolina. For the rest of the day and this evening, given the relative position of the trough, deeper lower to mid level moisture inflow combined with upper support, will maintain the likely chances, 70%, for showers with isolated thunderstorms.