Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
126 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND 80S ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONG. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER AIR TONIGHT WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S EAST. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
A UPPER TROUGH WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM THE GULF COAST NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN MT TO NORTHERN ND. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
1232 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 ANOTHER FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION! LOW LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. NO COMPLAINTS HERE - ENJOY! LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID LEVEL DECK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH BACKS CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE WRN ATLC.
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOOD SETUP FOR IMPRESSIVE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AS BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VFR FLIGHT BACK TO THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW CHILLS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
249 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED THOUGH AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
ALTOCU CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST WILL BE CLEARING SHORTLY AT AEX AND IN A FEW HOURS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEY BUT EAST OF THE CASCADES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
136 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED TO THE FAYETTE RIDGES AND ELEVATIONS SOUTH BUT SHOULD EXPAND A BIT NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KPIT. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY STRAY SHOWERS ENDING EARLY ACROSS THE RIDGES. UPPER PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
WEAK TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FA TODAY. ESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT COOLER CONDS THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL SEASONAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ESE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND STRONG SFC RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASING LL FLOW WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PER REMNANTS OF 16-E WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL POS THETA-E ADV OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OVER LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT SPAWNED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THAT HAS WORKED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA AS THE DAY HAS WORN ON. WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE HIGHS ABOUT TO PEAK IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. THEN A MASSIVE RIDGE FROM OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL U. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY. IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. WITH READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A GOOD 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE STATE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW MAINLY AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S.
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H7 IS BEING PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST /EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WHILE FARTHER ALOFT A H5 S/W TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE REGION.
1129 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE A TRANSITION TO WETTER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY. AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SO CA COAST OFFERING A KICK TO THE TROPICAL REMNANTS AS THEY MOVE S-N THROUGH AZ ON TUE. THE THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WILL STRENGTHEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. NUMERICAL HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV (DRIER/WARMER) AND THE MET (WETTER/COOLER).
Temperatures are a tad warmer today than yesterday. An upper level trof continues to shift eastward and will eventually be replaced by upper level ridge that should build into the region from the southwest. Lee-side trofing will cause some scattered convection to develop, however, this activity should stay well west of the region. Initially, it appears ridging will be in place across the eastern US with the main storm track being west of our area. To make the upper level pattern more interesting, globals are still closing off an upper level low across the southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau by this weekend. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, as high pressure remains in control at the surface.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EVEN AS ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND MOVES INLAND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK. A CLASSICAL/HYBRID DAMMING EVENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NC PIEDMONT WITH LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BUT HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S. -BLAES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EASTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE U. WITH RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR TODAY HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLIFYING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE 925-850MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THE LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER EAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING.
THE ADVERTISED PROCESS OF AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAKENING AS IT BANGS INTO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT LEVEL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AS WELL AS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT AND SMALL CHANCE POPS AROUND IN THIS AREA. WENT VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT WHILE EDGING ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER THAN THE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
12Z EARLY GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST US BY MID-LATE WEEK. A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER.
CHEYENNE 84 (1936) LARAMIE 78 (1958) RAWLINS 80 (1966) THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE SHOULD BE SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO 10-12C IN WAA. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY IN THE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO OUR WEST SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK. A CLASSICAL/HYBRID DAMMING EVENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERRIOR NC PIEDMONT WITH LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BUT HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S. ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DAYTIME HEATING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
137 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND DRY FALL WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. BUT IT WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
106 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS.
HIGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW MAINLY AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S.
321 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 MAIN UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER MINNESOTA, WHILE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE WAS SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE STRONG DECOUPLING AT THE SFC IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS MAY DROP A FEW AREAS INTO THE UPPER 40S, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 50S FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN AS THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA, AND MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BRIEFLY MOVES IN. A POTENT CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ND/MN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING IN FROM THE NW. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A MAINLY W-E RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS DEPICT FURTHER PROGRESS TO ALONG I-10.
532 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER AUGUST SUNSHINE WITH MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE OUR MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
WITH COOLER AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO LOOKING AT A COOL START TO MONDAY.
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SHOWING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
359 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT WE EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO LINGER AS RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE NORTHBOUND ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
330 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
Storms Continue This Morning Then Pleasant Weather Through Mid Strong storms continue to track southeast across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A cooler air mass will build into the region behind the cold front today. The region will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the week as upper level trough will be located over the eastern U. and an upper level ridge over the western U. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the taf site region at or around 12z. A period of lower, mainly mvfr ceilings are expected behind the front, then clouds should scatter out as high pressure builds into the region for much of, if not all of the last half of the taf period.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED A MASS OF RELATIVELY COOL STABLE AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE EAST TODAY WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. RANGING FROM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN SOME AREAS UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN OTHERS.
Water vapor loop shows a vigorous closed upper level low moving into Minnesota early this morning. A cold front associated with this system was moving south across the central Plains and has nearly cleared south central Kansas early this morning. Medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough tracking eastward across the Upper Midwest into the Western Great Lakes Monday as a developing upper level ridge moves very slowly east across the Intermountain West, setting up a fairly weak northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Northern California remains between upper level ridging over the southwestern US and broad upper level troughing over the eastern Pacific. With a shallower marine layer, it's not expected that the low clouds will spread any further inland. Current temperatures are about the same to a little warmer for most spots compared to yesterday, and little change is expected for high temperatures this afternoon. The northern San Joaquin and the central Sacramento Valley should reach the lower 90s, while the northern Sacramento Valley could see highs get into the upper 90s.
Water vapor loop shows a vigorous closed upper level low moving into Minnesota early this morning. A cold front associated with this system was moving south across the central Plains and has nearly cleared south central Kansas early this morning. An upper level ridge will build from the Four Corners region into central Canada through much of the upcoming week. With increasing heights and thickness values, a trend toward warmer temperatures will be noted through at least the early to middle part of the week.
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
410 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVENTUALLY RETREATS TO THE WEST.
MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MORE SOLAR SHOULD BRING A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE.
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOW TOO MUCH CINH EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPS FROM A REDUCED COVERAGE OF CLOUDS. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY STARTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW IS OVER ND/MN AND CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD. WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.
301 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 MOST OF THE FORECAST SHIFT WAS SPENT TRYING TO BUILD IN DETAILS ON THE TRENDS IN THE WEATHER FROM THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARD ERN WI WITH LIGHT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME POST-FRONTAL SHRA ABOUT A COUNTY FURTHER WEST. MULTIPLE FRONTOGENETIC BANDS INDICATED IN THE RAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONTAL AXIS ALONG MN/DAKOTAS BORDER IS SHIFTING TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDING THE MN TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SCENARIO WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH AFFECTING NRN WI LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
204 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ALONG THE COAST PUSHING SEA BREEZE BY MID AFTERNOON BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES AND MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY. AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE MID VALLEY.
334 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 2 AM WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE HIGHER POPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE DAY AS WELL, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAK WIND PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE SURFACE. BUT SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER.
256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM OF THE WEEK HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN DEW POINTS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRUSH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS WILL EASE. THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK.