Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low was gradually lifting off to the north and east into North Dakota and southern Canada this afternoon. Even though temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, rh values across the area have ranged from the upper teens to the upper 20s. A building ridge over the Northern Rockies will lead to dry weather and warming temperatures on Sunday.
917 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Temperatures will increase during the fist half of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners.
Otherwise gradual cooling through the column overnight and with lower dewpoints temperatures will be cooler and much less muggy. Upper low will continue to propagate east into Ontario tomorrow. Any instability and cape confined right around the low so went with just shra.
Temperatures along and east of the Mississippi river will warm back into the mid and upper 90s tomorrow underneath the upper high center. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to the steep upper ridge in place over the region. The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a surface front associated with an upper level closed low over Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
1006 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure will build in from the north tonight and Sunday. A cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through late in the week. High pressure will build over the area from the north with NE flow prevailing. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
a cold front from near Cape Fear to Greeleyville will continue to drift southward tonight.
721 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 At 2 pm, surface analysis had a cold front extending from far northwest MN through eastern SD. Looking for storms to fire quickly along the cold front across northwest MN into eastern SD this afternoon, then move southeast into the region by 8 pm (from north central WI into southeast MN/northeast IA). Sunday night looks to be a comfortable night with lows falling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Have added isolated showers as they continue to weaken, but persistently pinwheel around an upper level low which is currently located in southeast Manitoba. Winds will stay strongest (but lower than this afternoon/evening) in the northern parts of the area where the surface pressure gradient will remain strongest in closer proximity to the low over Canada. Thus despite the low dewpoints overnight lows should remain mainly in the 50s with a persistent mixing wind in place. For Sunday, wrap around moisture and some mid level forcing in the wake of the low will see another round of diurnally driven showers mainly across the north during daylight hours.
743 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure for the the weekend.
The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to the steep upper ridge in place over the region. The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a surface front associated with an upper level closed low over Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the region through the night, with dry conditions prevalent.
A weak cold front will slide sewd across nrn TAF sites later this evening, and have reflected a north wind behind this boundary at KGUY and KDHT. /Issued 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ An upper level low is spinning over the Big Bend area. At the surface, a trough and a weak frontal boundary are converging across Southeastern Colorado/Southwestern Kansas.
Pacific high pressure will build into Western and North Central Nebraska. H700mb temperatures are expected to be around 10C with H850 in the lower 20s C.
Upper low continues to spin across south Texas tonight and will keep sending periods of high cloudiness across the region. /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ A TUTT, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, can be seen on satellite imagery east of the Big Bend over the northern part of the Mexican state of Coahuila. An upper level ridge that extended from New Mexico east- southeastward across Mississippi to northern Florida this afternoon is expected to shift northwestward into the Intermountain West during the next several days.
That being said, not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into the low-mid 60s this afternoon.
The influence of the upper low will stay with us tonight as winds remain out of the west although with the expectation that the surface gradient drops off. The plume of driest air in the mid/low levels is currently overhead, and by Sunday 850mb dewpoints increase to around +2 to +4C, although closer to -1C in far western counties, so most of the area will see surface dewpoints in the low 50s, though west river could drop to around 40F.
Downstream from this disturbance we find longwave ridging in place across much of the eastern CONUS. This ridging extends southward to cover the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. the subtropical ridge axis continues to weakly remain across our region. A slight increase in moisture along with a weakening of the upper ridge should allow for more expansive storm coverage during the late morning and afternoon hours. With a slight weakening of the ridge aloft, and likely increase in cloud cover, highs may come in a couple of degrees cooler than today, with lower 90s common. The subtropical ridge will remain in control of the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days with generally light winds and seas outside of scattered thunderstorms.
The cold front will drift farther south and is now off the Cape Fear coast and through GGE.
801 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend.
A weak cold front will continue sliding sewd across nrn TAF sites early in this fcst cycle, and have reflected a north wind behind this boundary at KGUY and KDHT. A weak cold front will slide sewd across nrn TAF sites later this evening, and have reflected a north wind behind this boundary at KGUY and KDHT. /Issued 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ An upper level low is spinning over the Big Bend area. At the surface, a trough and a weak frontal boundary are converging across Southeastern Colorado/Southwestern Kansas.
837 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday night.
Thunderstorms are likely across portions of western and central Kansas tonight as short range models indicate an attendant frontal boundary to the closed off upper low to our north pushing further southeast across southwest and central Kansas during the period. Areas of precip and slightly cooler air filtering southward into western Kansas behind the advancing weak frontal boundary will drop lows down into the 60s(F) tonight with a few lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
(Issued 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016) The subtropical high remains in place over the mid-south this afternoon, generally centered over the lower Mississippi valley. As the upper high retrogrades into the ArkLaTex Sunday, a weak wedge front will push westward into northeast Alabama.
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Scattered thunderstorms are moving northeast across parts of eastern Missouri this afternoon on the nose of a warm front. Attention turns to the approaching cold front late tonight. Given the climatologically unfavorable time of day and lack of a strong low level jet blowing into the low level baroclinic zone, think the CAMs have it right so have backed off PoPs for late tonight and Sunday morning.
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure controls our weather.
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend with mostly clear skies leading to a modest warming trend. Little change expected through the week with high pressure aloft resulting in continued dry weather and above normal inland temperatures in place. With hazy sunshine, the area is warmer than it was yesterday at this time by as many as 13 degrees.
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend.
Subjective analysis from SPC meso page shows mixed-layer CAPE still maximized along/ahead of cold front, so can not rule out a few showers or storms. Primary large scale features from this mornings 12z upper air charts included a closed low at 500 mb over southern Saskatchewan and a jet max of around 100 knots at 300 mb over northwest Wyoming. 12 hour height falls at 500 mb were around 120 meters south of the closed low. Primary thermal ridge at 700 mb extended from west Texas up into central South Dakota. Southwest flow in our area ahead of the approaching cold front had shifted best 850 mb moisture east of our area into the central and eastern portions of Minnesota and Iowa. coverage of storms into early evening may be mostly tied to the cold front pushing through the region.
1031 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to nose into the Ohio Valley tonight. Surface flow will turn southerly ahead of the next cold front that will cross the region Sunday night.
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to nose into the Ohio Valley tonight. Surface flow will turn southerly ahead of the next cold front that will cross the region Sunday night.
Though the upper ridge axis is almost directly over the area, isolated showers are hanging on in a few spots this evening.
Any afternoon storms should end quickly by 6 pm as we loose peak heating, but the cold frontal arrival after midnight a broken line of storms rolls east along the front. However, with the high PWAT values around 2 inches, some locally heavy amounts will be possible. Sunday looks to be more comfortable with dry advection through the day, though highs in the 80s to lower 90s are still expected behind the cold front.
A warming trend begins today as the ridge of high pressure expands into southern Oregon. As of 1 PM today inland temperatures are running about 10 degrees warmer than at the same time yesterday. At the surface a weak thermal trough expanded along the coast to around Cape Blanco last night and is expected to do so again tonight. This will lead to another night of breezy Northeast winds at the ridges of SW Oregon and western Siskiyou County. Sunday's temperatures are expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than today. A weak short wave trough is still on track to move inland along SW winds aloft.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across Florida Keys waters overnight due to a ridge extending across the Florida Peninsula.
Hot weather will continue through the weekend under high pressure.
641 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Scattered thunderstorms are moving northeast across parts of eastern Missouri this afternoon on the nose of a warm front. Attention turns to the approaching cold front late tonight. Given the climatologically unfavorable time of day and lack of a strong low level jet blowing into the low level baroclinic zone, think the CAMs have it right so have backed off PoPs for late tonight and Sunday morning.
There could potentially be some in the rain areas, but expect temperatures to drop slowly overnight due to the higher clouds.
Otherwise, it will be a muggy night with lows only dropping into the lower 70s in most locations, due to lingering cloud cover.
The major concern for this afternoon/evening, as has been well- advertised, is the threat for more severe storms as the primary upper wave and approaching cold front interact with a very unstable airmass with sufficient deep layer shear for supercells. As a closed upper low moves into Ontario, one more cold front will move through the forecast area.
Approaching upper low will continue breezy conditions through Friday. Upper low with vigorous vorticity center will drop south into NorCal over the next 24 hours.
201 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure will bring sunny, dry weather to NY and PA today, before a storm slides into the northeast and spread rain showers across our region for the weekend. High pressure-induced sunny skies will combine with 13C-15C 925 MB temperatures to produce a mild afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s across most of our region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH Short wave trough over eastern Kansas on IR satellite imagery is expected to track across central Illinois this afternoon/evening. with a second short wave near the ne North Dakota/nw Minnesota border area ready to drop south in the wake of the first trough tonight. The first trough will spread some mid-high level clouds across at least the southern third to half of the forecast area today. Not much change in 925mb temperatures so highs similar to yesterday though will keep trend from previous forecast of slightly cooler high temperatures in the south due to the increased cloud cover. Still cooler by Lake Michigan with light easterly winds. Cloud cover diminishes tonight as trough moves away to the east.
1109 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 20z surface analysis had lee trough over central MT into central CO with nice southerly flow over the CWA. Convergence along lee trough assisting high based convection over northeast WY per local radar. Storms will move slowly east this afternoon and evening, moving into an area of 250-500J/kg MLCAPE created by mid-upper 40s dew point pooling ahead of lee trough. Boundary layer moisture continues to increase on southerly flow with lee trough moving little. Given rising heights and implied subsidence over the CWA, thunderstorms may be few and far between and likely rooted near terrain or occur along lee trough. Upper low over the Pacific NW Saturday will begin to slowly move east-northeast over the weekend as ridge shifts east of the area.
and Saturday A weak upper low pressure trough will slowly drift over the Mid and Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Region today into Saturday. Dry surface to 850 high pressure ridge remains settled over the area today and into the weekend for the continued dry weather. This weak boundary drops south over the area late tonight into early saturday in response to a stronger ridge developing to the west this weekend.
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 00z upper-air analysis revealed the continued presence of a split-flow pattern with an amplifying trough over the western U. Again, some lingering cloudiness could temper the potential for maximum diurnal heating with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The major trough evolving over the western U. The associated surface cold front will concurrently advance east through the northern and central High Plains with the greatest thunderstorm chances remaining to our west.
657 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures can be expected today before low pressure brings the return of showers tonight and into the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal as ridging passes over the forecast area today. Cloud coverage and mid-level moisture will be on the increase through the afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east of the area and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
Progged 925 mb temps on Friday will be very similar if not a hair warmer than today. However, the mid clouds are expected to result in high temperatures inland a degree or two cooler than today, near/around 70.
/issued 211 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ Precipitation chances will end in the short term tonight through Friday night as an upper level trough across Texas pushes east of the region. In its wake upper ridging will take place allowing temperatures to rebound to more normal values by Friday afternoon under sunny skies. The upper ridge will move east of the forecast area by Saturday and be replaced by southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next couple of upper level Pacific storm systems.
The upper low over the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually drift southeast to the Oregon/Nevada border area. Widespread cloudiness/precipitation will mostly keep temperatures near/below normal, but warmer highs are likely in the east.
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees warmer today depending on location. The warmest highs could be reached in the low 80s near Elkhart, while around 70 may be more probable under the upslope surface wind modified stratus clouds which will again persist the entire day from Dodge City to Hays. The main wave of precipitation exited the area last evening, and with upper ridging developing, precipitation should not be expected today. Light southeast winds will continue as high pressure remains anchored over the Upper Midwest for another day.
Once the squall line clears KGPT, the mesoscale low pressure system associated with the MCV will continue to bring light to moderate rain and MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions along with some locally gusty winds to 25 knots to the terminals through around 10z. Another round of convection could develop after 14z and persist through the afternoon hours as a slow moving cold front moves through the area.
However, the HRRR indicates the upper trough axis will be east of West Central Texas after midnight tonight; thus, expect no weather after then.
Surface cold front continues to move eastward through Montana late this afternoon through this evening. Upper low dives south across the west coast. SW flow will be found Saturday as the mentioned upper level low moves more inland. with this cold front. across the highest peaks of western MT.
302 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
As we reach our maximum heating late this afternoon we could see a few showers mainly along and east of the highway 83 corridor. In addition, upper ridging begins to break down here and we return to a more southwest upper flow with increasing bulk shear.
Cold front has stalled near Rosebud County and has generally become a north/south oriented stationary boundary at this point.
Models show elevated instability sneaking/nosing in across our southeastern counties still, like last night, so we include a slight chance of a thunderstorm there, esp as the Low lifts northeast across the Tennessee valley later today. Pops wind down west to east tonight as the low tracks off to the east, but we do retain a troffy pattern that could linger an isolated shower even into the early weekend (Saturday). High pressure will be firmly in place over the area at the surface and aloft.
440 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area.
Expect a slowly progressive pattern as the mid/upper level ridge over the plains shifts through the Great Lakes and the western CONUS mid level low over OR lifts to Saskatchewan leaving a broad trough with wsw flow to the Upper MS valley and northern Great Lakes.
307 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southwest Missouri will track northeastward today, bringing clouds and a few light showers to central Illinois. Despite decent lift associated with the low, low-level airmass will remain quite dry. Another change noted on the 00z May 20 model suite is that the upper low will be slightly slower to depart than originally thought. Despite rising upper heights and a return to mostly sunny skies, northerly winds around the high will mitigate warming trend. with highs on Saturday reaching the lower to middle 70s.
Models show elevated instability sneaking/nosing in across our southeastern counties still, like last night, so we include a slight chance of a thunderstorm there, esp as the Low lifts northeast across the Tennessee valley later today. Pops wind down west to east tonight as the low tracks off to the east, but we do retain a troffy pattern that could linger an isolated shower even into the early weekend (Saturday).
349 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Upper level trough spinning through the Central Plains early this morning triggering a few light showers/sprinkles well to our south with expansive mid level clouds spreading northward through eastern Nebraska and Iowa. This trough projected to track eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, while another trough begins to drop south into the Red River Valley. With the more extensive cloud cover and cooler low level air working into the area around the Central Plains trough, have cooled temperatures today a bit from previous forecast, but still looking at highs a couple of degrees either side of 70. Should be another mild night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Southerly flow is expected to increase throughout the weekend ahead of a trough approaching from the west.
119 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight. A storm system over the Lower Mississippi on Friday will move northeast and spread rain into Pennsylvania late Friday night into Saturday. High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will build southeast and become centered over the state for Friday.
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Weak flow aloft is seen in the very short term period, but sufficient instability beneath this weak upper low is supporting some widely scattered thunderstorms north central early this morning. Expect this convection to last perhaps until sunrise as the upper low moves east after that. Friday will see a strong upper low consolidate over the northwest CONUS with a resultant downstream ridge over the northern plains.
345 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low center along the Oregon coast this morning. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and extreme NW CO.
Snow could briefly fall down to between 4,000 and 4,500 foot elevations on or near Siskiyou Summit this morning, but with air temperatures above freezing. Water Vapor imagery this morning shows a small plume of enhanced moisture over southeastern sections of the area this morning as a -27C 500mb low pressure center moves south-southeastward into northern california.
658 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will exit to the east today as low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley tracks northeast towards southern Ohio tonight. The low will exit to the east on Saturday as energy shifts to the east coast.
254 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Warm high pressure will build over the area today and Saturday.
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure with mild dry air, will build over the region Tonight and Friday.
This pattern expected to continue through the next 24 hours, with Friday expected to be a little bit warmer and winds slightly stronger as well. Lows have been dipping into the low to mid 30s with very good radiational cooling conditions, but this is not expected tonight with the tighter pressure gradient. A massive central North American ridge will dominate the weather for the Northland throughout the remainder of the work week and most of the weekend.
We still find ourselves within a broad ridge, with upper lows situated over the Pacific NW, eastern KS, and the Canadian Maritimes. This increased cloud cover is why temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two cooler than what was observed yesterday, despite little airmass change.
133 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Low and mid level clouds will increase late tonight in advance of an area of low pressure approaching the region.
406 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 An upper ridge will build over the Panhandles today and tonight with the upper flow transitioning to southwesterly on Saturday as the upper ridge moves off to the east and an approaching closed upper low over the Great Basin region moves slowly east.