Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Focus will mainly be with temperatures over the next couple of days with high pressure remaining across the region.
With high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley, a light gradient will develop with west winds generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures will steadily warm into the lower 50s across much of the area. Strong persistent troughiness across the Gulf of Alaska, downstream ridging and warm temps through the western and central CONUS along with a cutoff low in the SW states, and troughiness from the eastern lakes into New England. At the surface, strong high pressure center and deep layer dry air is over the western lakes and upper midwest region. Very little change in the overall pattern for the next several days while upstream ridging/warm air press into the Great Lakes.
532 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the region on Saturday.
Early this morning high pressure was located over the Great Lakes. Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures as high pressure will drive the sensible weather through the period.
355 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure throughout the column will be the rule through the short term. Given that wet bulb temperatures are well above freezing for most locations, think that any patchy frost will be isolated tonight. Dew points mixing down into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon hours will set the stage for another seasonably cool night.
A cold front was moving through central Alabama early this morning. But, this rain near the cold front will continue falling apart and be gone by sunrise. Models are in good agreement that the upper ridge builds back overhead through the weekend. Although the highs drop off, we will still remain well above normal in the 70s. The GFS seemed to have a better handle the eventual development of a closed low west of the area. At this time, leaned toward the ECMWF due to the persistent ridge and antecedent dry conditions. 87/Grantham A cold front was currently moved southward across central Alabama.
For today, an upper level low will continue to bring good chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of northern Arizona.
635 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the region on Saturday.
An upper low over southern Arizona will lift to the northeast bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to western and central New Mexico today and central and eastern portions of the state Saturday and Saturday night.
219 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A mid-level vorticity maxima trailing the trough which crossed the region last night will continue to shift southeastward into GA this afternoon, with northerly flow aloft in the process of weakening as this occurs. This trend will persist tonight as an amplified 500-mb ridge axis spreads slowly eastward from the southern Plains into the lower MS valley. At the surface, the center of a Canadian anticyclone continues to build southward, and should settle across the OH valley overnight.
237 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon through midnight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. For Saturday night, expect a mostly clear sky and light winds with overnight lows in the low/mid 40s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early November.
217 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A large area of high pressure will build in from the Ohio River Valley over the next several days. Dry, breezy and cooler conditions will be followed by a slow moderation in temperatures over the upcoming weekend. Highs will range from the mid to upper 40s over the high terrain of the North and West. to the low to mid 50s in the Central and SE valleys. The exception will be over the northeast where a weakening back door cold front may bring an increase in clouds for the afternoon. Upper air pattern has a sharp ridge to the west of PA and a trough near the East Coast.
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Pacific moisture associated with a closed low over southern Arizona will remain over the region through the day. The closed low is progged to slowly weaken and lift towards the four corners region tonight through Saturday. Afternoon highs Saturday will only reach the lower and middle 70s.
236 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure over the Illinois River Valley will drift slowly southeast through Saturday.
126 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A weak cold front passing through northern NY may cause a few sprinkles or light rain showers overnight.
355 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Dry and mild conditions were in place today with a mid-level ridge stretched across the central U. With light southerly winds from this surface pattern, afternoon temperatures will reach into the low/mid 70s. With light southerly winds and some cirrus clouds persisting through the day on Saturday, expect another day of unseasonably warm conditions with temperatures reaching into the low/mid 70s.
313 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area today and tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week. Rain threat long gone for the foreseeable future as cold and dry high pressure builds in the wake of a strong cold front. The cold front is now well offshore and the following strong CAA is keeping temperatures capped at around 70F. Clear skies, dry weather and seasonal temperatures expected to persist through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure and clear skies will be present through the short term. NW flow will bring in slightly cooler and drier air overnight through Saturday night. as well as the higher elevations in east TN.
240 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A weak southerly flow will remain over Colorado tonight ahead of an upper low over eastern Arizona. The upper low is progged to move near the Four Corners area Saturday afternoon.
253 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis depicted a mid to upper-level low over Arizona, ridging over the Great Plains and a full-latitude trough along the Atlantic Coast. In the low levels, an elongated ridge axis stretched from the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes into the central Rockies as of 18z with slightly better mixing and gradient flow supporting temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the southern portion of our area. Strengthening gradient flow and downslope-induced warming associated with this lee trough will yield another seasonably warm day with high temperatures in the lower 70s.
An upper trough axis along the coast will continue to push east as a large upper ridge expands over the center of the country. Water vapor imagery shows much drier air filtering into the region behind a cold front which pushed east of the area earlier.
231 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A weak cold front passing through northern NY may cause a few sprinkles or light rain showers overnight.
524 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. A cold front will pass through Saturday night.
445 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the region on Saturday.
High confidence in the short term with dry and cooler weather. High pressure will build into the region and dominate the weather pattern through the short term. Otherwise the main story for the short term is much cooler but still above normal temperatures.
Broad upper level ridge of high pressure to maintain dry and mild conditions across the forecast area today. The area will remain in between a large upper level low over the Pacific and an upper level ridge over the central US, leading to a SW flow aloft.
127 PM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will bring mild, dry weather to the region through tonight.
600 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Water vapor imagery shows ridging over the Plains with a closed upper low spinning over the desert southwest. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains with some weak lee troughing over western Nebraska/northeast CO. Focus of the first few days of the forecast will revolve around the upper low spinning over the desert sw. Some showers and storms may linger over central/eastern KS Mon night into Tue morning but by Tue afternoon should be south of the forecast area, closer to the closed off upper low over the sw conus. While temps look to be cooler than they have been the last several days, they are still expected to be close to or even a few degrees above seasonal averages for the Tue-Fri time frame.
Some lifting of cigs during the afternoon is likely, perhaps into the low end VFR in some locations. /issued 417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Cold front has pushed well south of the area early this morning, and most of the ongoing precipitation has remained south of the area across the Rio Grande Valley. Upper level low across Arizona will lift northward today and begin to weaken and fill.
Dry conditions will prevail for one more day, as high pressure dominates our weather. An approaching cold front will bring rain to the region for Saturday, with some of the rainfall moderate to heavy in intensity at times.
225 PM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will persist through at least the weekend, so dry conditions are expected. Large upper level ridge now dominating the midsection of the CONUS and providing for warm and dry conditions across the district. While the ridge pattern will shift eastward in the next 24 to 48 hours, Central California will see one more day of warming on Saturday before cooler air filters into the area. The dominate ridge pattern will be counteracted by warming and drying at the surface.
This will push a Pacific cold front through late tonight into early Saturday. The weak upper low, presently off of the southern California coast, is progged to eject east-northeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday morning.
320 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will crest across the area this morning before moving offshore. A weak low pressure system will bring a light snowfall to the region late Saturday through Saturday night as it moves across the region.
This should create a shield of snow showers and flurries following the backside of the low tonight through the middle of Saturday morning north of I-94. For temperatures, being in the warm sector, we have been a few degrees warmer today than we were predicting overnight and we should see a swath of highs in the mid 30s in SW MN downwind of the Buffalo Ridge. Favored the warmer guidance for lows tonight, which just means a slower push of cold air behind the low. The cold trough will be working across the upper MS Valley Saturday, so highs near to slightly below normal look good.
As previous shifts have mentioned, this system remains quite mild with snow levels dropping from 7000 ft to only around 5500 ft, keeping a chance for some mixed precipitation throughout the event for some of the lower elevations. Overnight lows down south will be several degrees warmer than last night as a result of increased cloud cover. A second cutoff low will be ushered south of the Four Corners on Sunday by a broad upper level low dropping into the northwestern CONUS.
Model analysis shows the high pressure will continue to shift eastward overnight, being centered over our forecast area early Saturday morning. Given the model placement of the high pressure, thinning cloud cover and current temperature trends, have bumped down minimum temperatures tonight to the low 30s. In the upper levels there will be mostly zonal flow on Saturday then a ridge will build in from the south on Sunday. Low pressure near The Great Lakes will drag a cold front through The Ohio River Valley and The Mid-Atlantic states. A cold or stationary boundary will likely connect these systems through The Lower Mississippi Valley. Lows will be in the lower 50s on Saturday night and in the lower 60s on Sunday night.
1127 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The boundary layer will remain well mixed this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front approaching the area. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected to close out the year as high pressure moves over the area Saturday into Sunday.
High pressure across the region will shift offshore today with winds veering to the southeast. After a chilly start to the early morning, onshore flow will warm temperatures up to to the low to mid 70s this afternoon, which is near to a couple degrees above normal for this time of year.
Short lived upper ridge passing through today with eyes on the next short wave trough dropping out of Canadian Prairies. Some hints that ice source could drop out at times as wave passes so kept small risk of freezing drizzle in our far northern areas although confidence in any impact from that is minimal. While most of the holiday weekend looks quiet, by Sunday mean upper trough starts to dig across the western U.
At the surface, a weak cold front extends from extreme se Nebraska, into west- central KS. Weak cold front will push through the entire forecast area today, knocking temps back closer to seasonal normals. Precip chances are still expected to increase Sun night into Mon morning as this trough slowly digs southeast, increasing mid level theta-e advection. Models continue to come in warmer for temps Mon morning which leads to increased confidence that all of the precip will remain in liquid form. Highs on Wed and Thu will likely not top the freezing mark. Winds will shift to the northwest at 15 to 25 mph before diminishing during the day on Saturday as high pressure settles over the area.
358 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front making slow progress to the southeast across forecast area early this morning. Despite cloud cover, gusty southerly winds ahead of cold front will help temps warm up into the low 40s to low 50s today.
253 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front tracking through the area this morning will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler today, as much as 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 An intense area of low pressure over Canadian Maritimes will continue to move away from the area overnight. Weak high pressure builds into the region Saturday. Low pressure tracks across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning and will be followed by high pressure. Expect these wl wind down later this aftn except for the high terrain in the North Woods where they wl lkly persist in some fashion or another thru midnight. High pressure located acrs the wrn Great Lakes begins to build in fm the west twd daybreak. Prtly sunny skies expected briefly tomorrow in ridge axis ahd of next Clipper system appchg. Early Sunday morning the front will move to eastern Maine, the low to southwest Quebec.
A weak disturbance over the Northern Plains will send a cold front south across the Plains tonight. This will usher in cooler air by morning with overnight lows falling into the 20s.
COld front will approach and then move through the terminals will winds veering around to the northwest behind the front.
1143 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Strong south-southwest winds will continue ahead of a cold front that will move over TAF sites late tonight and tomorrow. /issued 525 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016/ South winds will remain rather gusty much of the night before decreasing ahead of a cold front that will move through taf sites late tonight through Saturday morning. A relatively minor cold front will move through Oklahoma and north Texas overnight into Saturday, causing only minor changes in temperature, but will shift winds to northerly and will provide higher relative humidities.
A low pressure system moving into Arizona overnight. The center of the upper low was moving across eastern San Bernardino County this evening and will head into Arizona overnight. The 00Z NAM and GFS solutions are in good agreement that the upper low currently along the northern California coast will straddle the Southern California Coast on New Years Eve and largely miss Southern Nevada, but a slight chance of a stray shower can't be completely ruled as indicated in the going forecast and no changes to the POP/WX grids were made beyond 12Z Saturday. A few light showers with ceilings around 6 Kft will remain around the Las Vegas Valley until about 08Z then the low cloud layer should diminish.
High High pressure will likely bring plenty of sunshine for at least the morning, before clouds begin to increase from the west later in the day ahead of approaching low pressure.
The cold front is still to the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon. The cold front will move through most of the forecast area during the evening hours. Behind the cold front winds will turn to the northwest and will pick up a little. There will be a little warm advection with temperatures a little warmer on Sunday.
343 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 A weak frontal boundary will sag south across the area today before stalling and then lifting back north as a warm front late tonight and Sunday.
A low pressure system will move into Arizona overnight. The center of the upper low was moving across eastern San Bernardino County this evening and will head into Arizona overnight. The 00Z NAM and GFS solutions are in good agreement that the upper low currently along the northern California coast will straddle the Southern California Coast on New Years Eve and largely miss Southern Nevada, but a slight chance of a stray shower can't be completely ruled as indicated in the going forecast and no changes to the POP/WX grids were made beyond 12Z Saturday. A few light showers with ceilings around 6 Kft will remain around the Las Vegas Valley until about 08Z then the low cloud layer should diminish.
/ISSUED 853 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016/ A coastal trough was already forming along the immediate coast.
241 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front was nearing the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. High temperatures will be back down to around normal for late December behind this cold front. Another upper level short wave trough over northwest California now is expected to dive southeast and this system will move south of the panhandles on Sunday night.
The set-up is a bit borderline given the high clouds over the region, but given the lack of cold weather so far this season and a high enough confidence in below-freezing temperatures, we decided to go ahead and issue the warning. Just some high clouds and much cooler temperatures- in the 30s and 40s across the forecast area. High pressure will shift eastward long the northern Gulf coast tonight and out into the Atlantic for Saturday and Sunday, with winds gradually becoming east and then southeast.
Some patchy freezing fog is possible in the Columbia Basin though no fog has developed yet. A ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions to the region tonight and Saturday before an approaching storm system takes aim on the two state area tomorrow night. With the high snow ratios portions of the region especially in the area mountains could experience several inches while Sundays afternoon temps struggle to reach the freezing mark.
A weak cold front will affect KABI early Saturday afternoon and KSJT by sunset, with light north winds following FROPA. A weak cold front will affect KABI early Saturday afternoon, with light northwest winds following FROPA. Otherwise, cool tonight with the cloud cover in place but warmer with more sunshine on Saturday. Cold front make enough progress towards I-20 to trim temperatures down a little.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Tonight low pressure will shift into the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through Iowa. There may be a period of lower clouds associated with the frontal passage but any forcing is disorganized and there is just too much dry air in the lower levels to expect any precip.
High to middle level cloud deck will move in across the region Saturday morning with next low pressure system moving in from the SW by afternoon.
1237 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
Winds will be out of the west until around 12Z where a cold front will move south across all TAF sites. Another cold front tomorrow will bring cold air advection into the Panhandles and allow temps to drop back down to the 40s.
High pressure ridge, currently overhead, will shift eastward through this morning.
Light precip over Wrn Shasta mtns/Siskiyou Co moving NWwd as upper low off the Nrn CA Coast drops Swd along the CA coast thru Sat afternoon. At times, the model WBZs for the RDD area Sun nite thru Mon nite noted to be below freezing with ice in the snow growth zone, -10 to - 20 Deg C. JHM Upper low pressure system over Oregon will drop south to near the San Fransisco Bay early Saturday afternoon. High pressure ridge will briefly build over northern California Sunday with another cold system approaching from the north late Sunday night.
344 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front will approach the region today bringing light rains ahead of the front. While a brief mix of rain/snow at onset isn't out of the question due to deep moisture and wet bulbing near freezing at the sfc, think that precip will quickly go to all rain given rising temps after sunrise. Temps should top out in the low to mid 40s this afternoon with lows in the 30s tonight. For Sunday, the boundary will lift back north into the Ohio Valley as a warm front.
1226 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold high pressure will move offshore today. Expect lows tonight warmer than tonight as a result of increasing mid/upper level cloud cover, ~40 degrees.
409 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A pressure ridge over the area will move off the coast this afternoon.
109 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
Temps have fallen into the lower to mid 30s across the N/NW CWA but remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s to the ESE. Today: Cold air advection from NW winds increases behind clipper system cold front this morning into the afternoon. Adiabatic compression to the sfc yields temps near freezing at the Quad Cities. Through early this morning, ahead of the cold front, LLWS will be expected at all sites from the surface to 2000 ft aloft, where winds will be blowing southwest at 50 kts through about 09z. Surface winds of 10 to 20 kts will shift to southwest between 09z-13Z, after which the cold front will switch winds to northwest at 15 to 25 kts through sunset.
337 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will build into the region today. Weak low pressure will approach from the west this afternoon and cross the region tonight. The low will move east Sunday.
230 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front extending into the southwest states. Cooler but still seasonably mild lows in the 20s are expected behind the front for tonight.
Warm front near the gulf will gradually move back north on Saturday, with flight conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower in all but the north. Better rain chcs wl occur Sat as the storm sys moves closer, with the highest POPS still expected ovr the SERN half of AR.
A low pressure system will move into Arizona overnight. -Wolcott- 858 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2016 The center of the upper low was moving across eastern San Bernardino County this evening and will head into Arizona overnight. The 00Z NAM and GFS solutions are in good agreement that the upper low currently along the northern California coast will straddle the Southern California Coast on New Years Eve and largely miss Southern Nevada, but a slight chance of a stray shower can't be completely ruled as indicated in the going forecast and no changes to the POP/WX grids were made beyond 12Z Saturday. A few light showers with ceilings around 6 Kft will remain around the Las Vegas Valley until about 08Z then the low cloud layer should diminish.