Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1135 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 A ridge will be moving in place over the region today, pushing zonal flow and west winds out and bringing more southwesterly winds in. Warmer air will advect in with this flow finally raising high temperatures to around normal. Ridge continues to build northward across Wyoming for the latter half of the week, deflecting most instability to the north and west. Models still picking up on an impulse on the western end of the trough moving across the region Wednesday.
A summer like pattern is expected across central Indiana this week with high pressure across the area during the week. There will be small chances for rain later in the week as upper level waves ride the ridge through the Midwest. Current thoughts are that as the complex moves through Illinois it will weaken as it moves into an area of high pressure.
1149 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Similar meteorological conditions are expected to continue over southern Colorado during the next 24 hours as compared to the previous 24 hours as upper ridging continues to build into southern Colorado.
As high pressure moves in today, showers should be kept at bay and VFR conditions should prevail.
We could see some lingering showers, mainly across the northern forecast area early this evening as a weak cold front moves through.
247 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 The threat of thunderstorms this evening continues to decrease as the focus for development has shifted north into southern Iowa where the cold front resides this afternoon. The upper level ridge begins to build north into the central Plains on Wednesday but our CWA remains on the eastern periphery and any MCV, or weak upper level disturbance floating across the area during the afternoon could lead to a diurnal surge of thunderstorm activity. CVKING The ridge will continue to build across the Plains and into the upper Midwest through the weekend. Have maintained a largely dry forecast for the end of the week and weekend, but the orientation of the ridge from roughly New Mexico to Minnesota does give me some pause.
111 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Mostly sunny skies and less humid conditions are expected today with highs climbing into the lower 80s. Subsidence in wake of yesterdays' trough has allowed for clear skies and drier air to filter in. Good deal of sun should be seen through the day with temperatures heading back to more seasonable levels in the lower 80s.
1251 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Dry weather is expected today under building high pressure. Dry weather and mostly clear skies should continue tonight as the high moves east.
317 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
A weak mid-level ridge will prevail over the next 36 hours with scattered afternoon convection possible on Wednesday along with high temperatures forecast to approach 90 degrees areawide. Convection to quickly diminish by sunset this evening and Wednesday evening allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide during the overnight hours with temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s both nights.
Precipitable water values will fall below 1 inch this afternoon as mid-level ridge builds into the forecast area, preventing convection. Weak high pressure will continue to build eastward into the region through Wednesday before drifting back to the west by later in the week.
Aloft, a trough is stationed over the western US with a closed low off the coast of British Columbia, with gradual height rises are present over the Central Plains. As the ridge remains in place over the Northern Plains, expecting precipitation to move out during the day with mostly sunny skies under high pressure aloft. High temperatures are forecast to be generally in the low 80s across all of western and central North Dakota. Model guidance shows an embedded closed low in southwest flow aloft moving over the Dakotas late Wednesday night, with another round of showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop in Montana and Wyoming. The severe threat looks to continue through the weekend, with upper level flow becoming even more southwesterly as the ridge begins to shift east.
1158 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build into the region from the Midwest through mid-week.
Upper ridging is expected to increase Thu into Fri from the southern High Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Strong upper ridging is expected to persist through the weekend across the region which will finally allow for a prolonged drying out period.
1036 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019 After a couple days of mild weather, a return to cool and showery weather is expected late this week with the arrival of a slow moving low pressure system.
Wednesday becomes more interesting as mid/upper winds back to the southwest as upper low encroaches into the Pacific Northwest coast.
A more summer like pattern is setting up for the rest of the week with ridging beginning to strengthen over the area later today. The majority of the remainder of the short term looks to be dry as the ridge continues to strengthen.
412 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 REST OF TODAY: Deep layer ridging that is currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico and extending across our area has resulted in mostly light, westerly winds.
209 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build in with a less humid airmass for the overnight and to start Wednesday. A return southwesterly flow on Wednesday will help to gradually increase temperatures and humidity levels once again ahead of another weak cold frontal boundary approaching from the Lower Great Lakes region. A breezy but still warm NW flow has set in behind the departing surface cold front. Lower dewpoints have made it into the central ridge-valley region and will continue to infiltrate the remainder of the CWA, setting the stage for a mild but less humid overnight. A weak cold front will drop into the lower lakes by late Wednesday. A digging upper trough over the Northeast US will bring the most likely period of t-storms to the area over the weekend.
Upper-level ridging will build across the eastern two-thirds of the country late in the week through the weekend.
Low pressure over central Canada combined with weak high pressure off the coast will maintain a warm and humid flow of air through the end of the week. Low pressure lifting through eastern Ontario tonight will pull an occluded front into the area this evening. Low pressure over James Bay combined with high pressure just south of the Maritimes will channel warm and humid air north into the area on Wednesday. However, there is just a slight chance of a stray thundershower along the western edge of our area late in the day as an upper trough to the west approaches. A weak ridge of higher pressure will retreat to the east as a cold front moves into NW Maine at the start of the period.
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach from Pennsylvania this weekend. Trough axis has moved through, with a band of enhanced cloudcover currently crossing the area. Ridging will provide a quiet night, with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s/lower 60s.
As an upper level low begins to move inland along the Washington/Oregon coast line, strong southwesterly flow and an incoming upper level jet stream will produce favorable lift over much of western Montana and central Idaho.
955 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019 After a couple days of mild weather, a return to cool and showery weather is expected late this week with the arrival of a slow moving low pressure system.
Overnight storms are likely to expand across northern KS westward across the High Plains.
Large upper low will drift onshore the Pac NW tomorrow, with upper ridging setting up across the northern high plains. Ridging aloft will continue through the end of the week as the upper low remain stationary across the Pac NW.
The atmosphere is much drier today as high pressure sets up at the surface, so we should make it through the next 24 hours rain- free.
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build over the region through late in the week. Lows generally in the lower 60s north ranging into the mid 60s south. Dry air and sinking associated with subtropical ridging will bring sunny skies. Highs in the mid to upper 80s NW-N Piedmont ranging into the lower 90s over the Sandhills. As the high remains overhead Wednesday night, this should be the coolest night.
This helped to focus strong thunderstorms in the 8-10 pm time frame over and adjacent to the Lower Keys, complete with a waterspout report and a wind gust to 48 mph at the Weatherflow station at the Coast Guard station on the north Gulfside end of Key West. A 500 mb high is centered near Miami this evening, forming part of the greater large-scale subtropical ridge.
457 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Upper level winds are transitioning to the southwest as we become sandwiched between a closed low off the PNW and an amplifying ridge over Texas. The warming trend will continue with southwest flow pushing warmer temperatures and dry air into the CWA. CWA remains smushed between the spinning low pressure system off the PNW and high pressure tracking over the southern plains through the end of the week.
925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
Breezy west winds will continue overnight behind a cold front, which is currently passing through the region.
The rest of the forecast period will consist of a typical summer pattern as a weakness increases in the large scale subtropical ridge over the southeast CONUS.
406 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Westerly flow aloft continues with a 586 DM ridge over the region. Low levels continue to be drier with near inverted-V soundings and high lapse rates in the low levels.
944 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure regained control over the eastern Tennessee Valley today with a drier airmass and lower dew points and mostly sunny skies.
Weak high pressure will continue building into the region from the northwest overnight keeping winds from the northwest and becoming more northerly toward daybreak. Overnight the clouds will slide eastward and the northerly flow will advect slightly cooler air into the forecast area. Weak high pressure will continue to build eastward into the region through Wednesday before drifting back to the west by later in the week. Models indicate that a weakness in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere will cut off across the Lower MS River Valley and northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, high clouds to linger overnight, but these shouldn't keep us from getting down into the low 70s areawide. A weak mid-level ridge will prevail over the next 36 hours with scattered afternoon convection possible on Wednesday along with high temperatures forecast to approach 90 degrees areawide. Convection to quickly diminish by sunset this evening and Wednesday evening allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide during the overnight hours with temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s both nights.
A low pressure system along the Pacific coast will maintain breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the remainder of the work week.
936 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 At 01z, high pressure was noted over southern MS with lower pressures over West Texas. At 700 mb, a weak trough extended from central LA into SE TX with dew pts between 5 and 8 degrees C. At 300 mb, a weak trough extended across SE TX from a weak low over SE OK. SE TX was in a 55 kt RRQ and think the lift from the trough and the RRQ are responsible for the persistent light rain tonight. All in all, it will be warmer tomorrow and precip coverage considerably less than today.
Cooler temperatures will be likely over the interior by mid week, and a few showers will be possible over Del Norte and Humboldt Counties. Westerly onshore flow is forecast to increase south of the low, which will aid in moistening the airmass over NWRN CA.
924 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
212 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019 An upper level trough of low pressure will persist near the West Coast this week, maintaining onshore flow.
1027 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build east of the region tonight offering mainly dry weather. A warmer and more humid airmass will develop into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week into the weekend.
932 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach from Pennsylvania this weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep us dry and quiet the rest of the night with dewpoint temperatures lowering into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A large high pressure ridge will provide quiet and seasonably warm conditions Wednesday.
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Strong U/L ridge and associated large scale subsidence over the Florida peninsula aided in capping convection for much of the day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s in most areas away from the immediate coast.
353 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Upper level winds are transitioning to the southwest as we become sandwiched between a closed low off the PNW and an amplifying ridge over Texas. The warming trend will continue with southwest flow pushing warmer temperatures and dry air into the CWA. CWA remains smushed between the spinning low pressure system off the PNW and high pressure tracking over the southern plains through the end of the week.
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 The threat of thunderstorms this evening continues to decrease as the focus for development has shifted north into southern Iowa where the cold front resides this afternoon. The upper level ridge begins to build north into the central Plains on Wednesday but our CWA remains on the eastern periphery and any MCV, or weak upper level disturbance floating across the area during the afternoon could lead to a diurnal surge of thunderstorm activity. CVKING The ridge will continue to build across the Plains and into the upper Midwest through the weekend. Have maintained a largely dry forecast for the end of the week and weekend, but the orientation of the ridge from roughly New Mexico to Minnesota does give me some pause.
1034 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Upper level winds are transitioning to the southwest as we become sandwiched between a closed low off the PNW and an amplifying ridge over Texas. The warming trend will continue with southwest flow pushing warmer temperatures and dry air into the CWA. CWA remains smushed between the spinning low pressure system off the PNW and high pressure tracking over the southern plains through the end of the week. Persistent southwest flow continues to bring dry and warmer air into eastern Utah and western Colorado Thursday.
Heating will also result in SHRA development by late morning near the Austin and San Antonio terminals as convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s are reached.
323 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Models show upper ridge will gradually build and continue to influence the region through the rest of this week. This ridge will diminish/end rain chances for at least several days for much of the fa. However, depending on strength and position of the ridge, sfc heating and the moist airmass in the area could lead to some afternoon/early evening shower/storm development. Models show the ridge will break down later this weekend as a easterly wave approaches and moves into the southern Plains.
/ISSUED 936 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/ At 01z, high pressure was noted over southern MS with lower pressures over West Texas. At 700 mb, a weak trough extended from central LA into SE TX with dew pts between 5 and 8 degrees C. At 300 mb, a weak trough extended across SE TX from a weak low over SE OK. SE TX was in a 55 kt RRQ and think the lift from the trough and the RRQ are responsible for the persistent light rain tonight. All in all, it will be warmer tomorrow and precip coverage considerably less than today.
Aloft, a zonal flow pattern will transition as a ridge begins to build across the southern Plains. The area will remain on the eastern edge of this ridge as it develops.
Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 am were in the lower 50s across central WI and upper 50s to lower/mid 60s elsewhere. Plan on highs in the lower/middle 80s. Weather gets active tonight as models bring a warm frontal boundary and increasing moisture transport/elevated Cape northward toward our area. Early morning convection along/north of the warm front is expected fade/move east and south of the area by midday.
145 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build east of the region tonight offering mainly dry weather. A warmer and more humid airmass will develop into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week into the weekend.
High temperatures should be around 90 area-wide with lows in the lower 70s. With this in mind, have lowered pops for tomorrow afternoon and have raised high temperatures into the lower 90s as well.
306 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
A summer like pattern is expected across central Indiana this week with high pressure across the area during the week.
320 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 An upper level ridge will build across the southern half of the country from West Texas to the East Coast. Model soundings show an inverted V in the lower levels, suggesting gusty winds will be possible with stronger cells.
311 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low off the coast of Washington state with a trough extending south to off the coast of central California. Southwesterly flow aloft extended from this trough east to the Central Rockies. Across Canada, closed low pressure was located over northern Saskatchewan with another low over northeastern Ontario. As for precipitation chances, will place the highest pops in the north, where low level moisture is most prevalent, and where the nose of the low level jet is forecast to lie this evening.
Conditions will become more humid starting Thursday with afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Storms are possible mainly south of highway 30 with daytime destabilization of the lower layers.
337 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Central Illinois falls between an upper low over the southern portions of Hudson Bay. and ridging over the southeastern CONUS. A slow moving cold front has edged into the NW corner of the state. For the remainder of today, that cold front will not make it very far, pivoting to a more E/W orientation as the surface temps are progged to climb into the upper 80s. Through the weekend, the pattern is dominated by deep ridging across the center of the country. If an MCS were to break the pattern, the highs would also come into question.
The progression to a more familiar summer like pattern will continue through the week as ridging strengthens across much of the country. Temperatures will be near or a bit above normal as a result of this, and a few low chances for thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the warm and humid airmass, and perhaps as a result of convective complexes forming on the periphery of the ridge and skirting the area.
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure building in at the surface and rising heights aloft will provide us with generaly quiet weather conditions today and tonight with thunderstorm chances less than 20%. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon, with peak heat index readings in the lower 90s along and west of I-65.
259 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A round of storms developed on the nose of the low level jet overnight, along the southwestern edge of the CWA. Given the extra boost from the low level jet, a couple of these storms could still be strong to severe this morning, producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. The ridge will remain in place Wednesday night through Thursday.
Expect dry conditions overnight as an upper-level ridge over Texas begins to build east into the Southeastern United States. Due to the strength of the ridge and the subsidence from it, expect a drier trend to develop as diurnal convection is suppressed on Thursday. There will be enough moisture underneath the ridge to allow for isolated thunderstorm or two, but this activity will to tied to the daylight should diminish after sunset. Mostly sunny conditions will allow for good heating and highs in the low to mid 90s. A ridge will build across the Central portion of the U.
Warmer temperatures return at the end of the work week and through the weekend; however, they are still expected to be cooler than seasonal averages.
405 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will extend into the region for the rest of the week bringing typical summertime conditions -- warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
1205 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with a weak Wednesday disturbance before high pressure brings dry weather on Thursday. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected tonight under a ridge of high pressure. A weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon.
314 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
A low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the remainder of the work week.
PoPs will remain in for Thursday, though slightly lower as H5 heights rise and ridging develops from the Ohio Valley back into the Central Plains.
Breezy west winds will continue overnight behind a cold front, which is currently passing through the region. We could see some lingering showers, mainly across the northern forecast area early this evening as a weak cold front moves through. Will have a few short wave troughs move through the region Wednesday night and again Thursday night.
Mid level ridging was expected to strengthen today, but a weak inverted trough at 700 mbs will continue to funnel Gulf moisture across nearly all of South Central TX today. The 700 mb inverted trough tracks west this evening, leaving room for a few showers and storms to extend into the evening hours over the Rio Grande Plains.
345 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Upper level ridging will build in today with high pressure centered over West Texas. The upper level ridge will move west slightly on Thursday but PWATS will remain above normal, around 1. Numerical models continue to show a weak upper level ridge sliding into the region by Thursday with a drying trend expected to accompany the weak subsidence.
Slightly warmer and more humid conditions can be expected today and tonight as upper level heights gradually rise with south-southwest surface/low level winds. GKS Thursday and Thursday night appear dry at this time as upper level ridging builds over MO and IL with continued southerly surface winds as the synoptic boundary remains well north of our forecast area. Daytime highs may be slightly warmer compared to Wednesday, although it appears that we will be getting into a typical Summertime weather pattern with persistent temperatures generally slightly above normal for late June.
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails on the western periphery of mid/upper ridging, with weak southwesterly flow at the surface near the center of high pressure. At the surface weak high pressure will be over the Southeast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
Temperatures were running a few degrees warmer than last night with every station checking in with 70s. Models are in agreement that the flow throughout the column will weaken today as a Col region sets up between two upper level highs. This set-up should channel deeper moisture seen on IR satellite from the Texas Coast up into the Lower Mississippi Valley.