Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level moisture is increasing over the northern plains this afternoon with a broad upper trough coming onshore. Northeast KS remains under an upper ridge for the time being with light winds and clear skies in place. Winds remain steady around 10 mph, keeping temperatures warmer than Monday morning with readings in the 40s.
612 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will build into the area through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Temperatures will begin to warm on Monday as southerly flow in the low-levels returns. Any convection associated with this feature should remain over the higher terrain of Mexico and we will continue the dry forecast.
This region will have light winds through much of the night, with lows expected in the lower 40s. Look for warmer temperatures Monday as low level southerly flow returns.
1127 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
910 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will largely maintain control over the area through the night. Low pressure is expected to track along the East Coast, resulting in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. This will work to increase mid-level moisture toward the southeastern portions of the forecast area as well as the ridges. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west.
833 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week.
Surface analysis reveals a 1008mb low over northwestern Georgia with a cold front draped down into the Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show a nice "swirl" in the clouds over the lower Tennessee valley associated with the system. In our neck of the woods, persistent clouds and precipitation associated with wrap-around moisture from the upper level low have resulted in a soggy Sunday for south-central Kentucky. North-central Kentucky and southern Indiana have remained mostly dry thanks to drier air advecting into the lower levels of the atmosphere, but mid to high level clouds have blocked out the sun for most folks. Like today, the gradient between clouds/clear skies will be sharp on Monday and will have an impact on the high temperatures.
Low level moisture will begin to increase on Tues with instability increasing late in the day ahead of the next cold front.
1040 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
Forecast product suite updated as numerous shwrs across wrn half of mid state not starting to diminish as previously thought per upper level low not moving SE, but drifting slightly westward presently. The boundary layer will remain loaded with moisture this taf period, as an upper level low begins to move out of the area.
606 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Pocket of warmer air was located across the central plains this afternoon with a warm front over the northern plains near the South Dakota North Dakota border. Significantly colder north of the warm front with temperatures in the 30s at 18z across North Dakota. This colder air is forecast to begin to spread south on Monday behind a cold front which models bring into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon before stalling out across the area through Monday night.
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An upper level ridge axis overhead this evening will shift east with increasing westerly flow aloft Monday. The surface and upper level ridge in place will quickly shift eastward allowing for a return of southerly surface winds and zonal flow aloft over the coming 24 hours. However the slightly improved moisture and backed flow east of the dryline should keep highs in the upper 80s, while west of the dryline many spots on the South Plains may make it up into the lower 90s.
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will continue to work east across the region tonight and Monday as a cold front settles south into the Great Lakes. High pressure will regain control over the region as the front lifts back north Monday night.
/28/ Tonight through Monday, Latest satellite imagery showed a midlevel closed low pushing across the region. Afternoon breezy conditions will taper off for tonight, so expect a chilly night with lows from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. For Monday high pressure will build into the region from the Southern Plains with mostly sunny skies. Highs will be seasonable with readings in the lower to upper 70s.
Forecast product suite updated as numerous shwrs across wrn half of mid state not starting to diminish as previously thought per upper level low not moving SE, but drifting slightly westward presently. Scattered showers will decrease as an upper level low pressure begins to move out of the area. Conditions will slowly improve Monday as the low pressure moves away and moisture gradually decreases.
Given 1000/500 mb thickness values around 550 decameters and the colder air in place, night time lows should cool to around 50 most spots, a bit cooler in our higher elevated spots.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 68 54 79 / 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 68 54 77 / 80 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 54 69 53 77 / 60 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 64 51 74 / 90 60 20 10 NC.
High clouds have begun to fill the sky as moisture swirling around a potent upper low over TN surges northward. It will remain dry tonight with a ridge of high pressure holding on across the northern tier counties of PA, while the northern extent of deepening, moist easterly flow off the Atlantic advects north to near the Mason/Dixon line well after midnight.
Scattered showers will decrease as an upper level low pressure begins to move out of the area. Conditions will slowly improve Monday as the low pressure moves away and moisture gradually decreases.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front moving south across Lake Michigan this afternoon will sag into northern Illinois this evening and will help push temperatures down further inland. This boundary quickly weakens and lifts back north overnight in response to low pressure moving east across the Dakotas. A modest southeasterly gradient will be in place ahead of the low tomorrow which will allow breezy conditions to develop, especially west of the Chicago Metro. Onshore flow in Illinois near Lake Michigan will keep temperatures in the 50s immediately along the lake once again while inland expect highs in the low to mid 70s.
605 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure ridge axis stretching from the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes this afternoon. Once again, ridge axis in the region will keep the winds light and a significant lack of cloud cover will set up a decent radiational cooling event. sunshine and increasingly southerly winds will keep the temps a few degrees warmer than today.
938 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure is moving off the New England coast.
This also shifted the area of potential freezing rain a little farther south. Latest RAP/HRRR BUFKIT soundings indicate Williston may remain all snow while just to the south at Watford city, the potential for freezing rain appears. Even with the shift south, the area of freezing rain is still within the current SPS. Temperature profiles are warm/deep enough to melt ice crystals/snow from the saturated Dendritic Growth Zone (-12c to -20C), then falling to the ground in sub-freezing surface temperatures. This appears to occur for at least a few hours before winds aloft turn more southwesterly and westerly advecting in colder temperatures associated with the upper trough. The far southwest and southern James River Valley may get into the lower 50s Monday afternoon.
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Northeast winds decreasing this evening as high pressure settles over the area. After highs in the low 70s this afternoon, this should be sufficient for lows reaching near 40 degrees tonight, perhaps a few upper 30s. High pressure ridge axis stretching from the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes this afternoon. Once again, ridge axis in the region will keep the winds light and a significant lack of cloud cover will set up a decent radiational cooling event. sunshine and increasingly southerly winds will keep the temps a few degrees warmer than today.
The cold front will quickly move through the region by mid day Monday and unstable air will fuel shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late today and this evening as convective temp has been reached and a weak trough is coming in from Oregon. Cold front midday will being a chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms continuing Monday night as upper trough swings through.
1135 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Closed upper low over southwest Ontario this afternoon will be the primary weather feature for the area in the short term.
Coulston An upper-level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
648 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 At H5 upper closed low over northern Minnesota has moved little over past 24 hours. Sharp ridge over the western CONUS placing northern plains in fast northwest flow. Ridging over the northeast CONUS. Weak impulses moving through northwest flow around the backside of the upper low over northern Minnesota. Heating of the day and cooler temperatures aloft will destabilize atmosphere enough for a few storms this afternoon and a backdoor cold front moves through the flow some storms to continue through the over night hours.
927 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A cold front continues to push southeastward across the Mid-South this evening. /issued 328 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front was located from southern Indiana through northeast Arkansas and into west Texas. On Monday, the cold front will stall out across central Mississippi so any thunderstorms that form should be over north Mississippi. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Lower dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds will allow for a cooler, slightly below average night for the area. /issued 233 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Slightly cooler and drier air has overspread the area today.
The Pulley Ridge Buoy reports seas of 2 ft. A ridge axis will settle across the Florida Keys, stretching from the Southeastern Gulf, to the Middle Keys, to Andros in the Bahamas. Temperatures will gradually dip overnight to near 80, but with light winds under mostly clear skies, a few normally cooler locations may be able to fall to the mid 70s. Isolated showers may be possible Monday with a gradual moistening in the low levels. The low temperature so far today at Key West International Airport is 81 degrees.
Overnight this system will push out of the area with a weak cold front sinking in shftg S winds to N/NE perhaps down to along I-20, but the front will wave back N a bit Mon. /issued 412 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ The cold front, weak as it is, is nosing into Northeast Texas to Mineola and Gilmer. The cold front will sort of run out of gas and remain parked in the ArkLaTex just drifting back and forth in the light South wind and numerous outflows to boost coverage for the next few days.
630 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast over the next couple days. Bigger story looks to be thicker stratus/stratocumulus overspreading the area behind the passage of a cold front for Monday, with ceilings mainly in the 3500-5000 ft range, though with a risk for a few MVFR values toward RST at times.
Farther north, the cold front at 10 PM was located just south of a Del Rio to San Antonio to Giddings line and will stall later tonight across far southern areas of the CWA or into the CRP CWA. Upper air analysis this morning showed west-southwesterly flow over TX with a trough from central Canada to the Four Corners. At the surface, a cold front was moving into our northwestern counties. Winds ahead of the front were from the east to southeast and dewpoint temperatures were in the lower to middle 70s. The upper level trough will move across TX during this period.
A s/w trough is currently approaching S TX from the west and should help initiate further convective development late this evening and primarily after midnight.
1133 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast over the next couple days. A cold front continues to make quick progress toward the area, and will arrive near or just after sunrise for RST/LSE, bringing an increase in westerly winds, which will become even more gusty through the morning and afternoon hours with gusts either side of 25 knots expected.
A slow-moving cold front is triggering widely scattered convection across east-central Illinois this afternoon. Monday will start out sunny, but diurnal clouds will develop in advance of a weak trough pivoting around low pressure centered over the Great Lakes as the day progresses. NAM/GFS/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM all agree that widely scattered convection will develop in advance of the trough, so have included 20 PoPs across all but the far NW late Monday afternoon. Have lingered low chance PoPs south of I-70 into Monday evening as the trough slowly settles southward into the Ohio River Valley. Upper low centered over Ontario will be the primary influence over the weather across central Illinois through the middle of the week.
High pressure will continue to build over the southwest United States for the Memorial Day Weekend with warmer temperatures, light winds and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern Arizona. Only changes made to the forecast on the evening shift were to add areas of smoke to locations near the Snake Ridge wildfire. A ridge of high pressure will continue to move across the western United States bringing warm conditions to the area along with light winds.
/EC/ Tonight through Monday (Memorial Day): As the cold front moves towards the area, expect rain and storm chances to linger into Memorial Day on Monday. This will continue to drag the cold front analyzed off to our northwest slowly to the southeast. However, the strongest forcing will remain off to the north, helping the cold front stall up in the ArkLaMiss Delta tomorrow. /DC/ Tomorrow night through the rest of the week: Rather wet and slightly cooler than average conditions generally look to be in the cards for the Lower Mississippi Valley through the period as perturbed southwesterly flow aloft continues.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 81 65 83 / 30 40 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 61 82 / 20 30 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 64 82 61 82 / 30 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 58 81 / 20 20 20 30.
Srn WI will remain in a broad cyclonic flow from tnt into Tue due to the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada. Tue will be a repeat of Mon but cooler.
938 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Latest surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front roughly bisecting the state from southwest to northeast with drier air having worked into the NW corner of the state. A cold front continues to work its way slowly through the state.
1146 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure has been building into the region today. The cold front that has pushed well south has become stationary across Texas, extending east into Arkansas. This front will gradually return north as a warm front over the next several days.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The upper flow pattern consists of a trough that runs through central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, and a ridge that runs northward through the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Cool air advection and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west created strong northwest winds today. Models place eastern Montana in a dry slot between the showers of the trough to our east, and showers over the stationary frontal boundary to our west.
19z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into NE and another into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over the southeast SK with pinwheeling disturbances rotating around it into the Dakotas.
/issued 328 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front was located from southern Indiana through northeast Arkansas and into west Texas. On Monday, the cold front will stall out across central Mississippi so any thunderstorms that form should be over north Mississippi. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.
946 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from late Mon AM until early evening for breezy wly winds around a strong low pressure area in Ontario, Canada. Srn WI will remain in a broad cyclonic flow from tnt into Tue due to the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada. Tue will be a repeat of Mon but cooler.
1141 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 The slow eastward advancement of the sfc front and approaching upper trough led to renewed convective development during the mid evening. Scattered thunderstorms over far southern lower Michigan on into northern Indiana and Ohio will gradually expand in coverage as they move northeast into area along an advancing warm front. While low level shear is generally very weak, there will be a small window for an isolated tornado threat along the warm front as it edges into the far southern forecast area.
The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from northern Indiana down across southeast Missouri, with another surface boundary moving across the northern Plains. Aloft, an upper level low continues to spiral across southern Manitoba, with cyclonic flow established across the northern Plains and Great Lakes regions. This suppressed activity should continue through early this evening, before temporarily diminishing, before the cold front drops southeast across the area later tonight into early Monday morning. Shower activity will dry up through dawn, as the cold front exits off to the southeast. Dry weather should hold on into Monday night, as we await the next cold front approaching from the northwest.
/issued 927 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ A cold front continues to push southeastward across the Mid-South this evening. /issued 328 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front was located from southern Indiana through northeast Arkansas and into west Texas. On Monday, the cold front will stall out across central Mississippi so any thunderstorms that form should be over north Mississippi. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1108 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 At H5 upper closed low over northern Minnesota has moved little over past 24 hours. Sharp ridge over the western CONUS placing northern plains in fast northwest flow. Ridging over the northeast CONUS. Weak impulses moving through northwest flow around the backside of the upper low over northern Minnesota. Heating of the day and cooler temperatures aloft will destabilize atmosphere enough for a few storms this afternoon and a backdoor cold front moves through the flow some storms to continue through the over night hours.
Would not expect too much redevelopment overnight despite the approaching weak cold front so plan to lower/drop POPs over the northwest 1/2 of Middle TN. After 29/14Z, sct cu CKV/BNA to sct/bkn cu CSV will prevail per weak sfc ridging/zonal flow aloft keeping CKV/BNA dry, but can not rule out at least VCSH CSV 29/18Z-30/02Z per proximity to area of shwrs/tstms.
High pressure will hold across the waters for the next few days with a general west to northwest flow increasing each afternoon near the coast as the sea breeze develops.
616 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure has been building into the region today. The cold front that has pushed well south has become stationary across Texas, extending east into Arkansas. This front will gradually return north as a warm front over the next several days.
928 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue until the passage of the cold front overnight. Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. Evening update made to nix the flash flood watch as the focus for heavy rain and localized flooding has shifted northward in the vicinity of the warm front with residual outflow boundaries allowing for additional storms to develop. Overall, expect strength of storms to diminish with time with the loss of heating, but threat for heavy rain will linger until the approach of the cold front tonight. Cold front is still progged to pass overnight, with it east of the region by 8am.
605 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 The main feature of interest in the short-term is a upper level trough located over the central U. This feature will force a weak cold front into the area tomorrow.
929 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Monday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
822 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
737 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. This is helping to keep temps down somewhat with current readings only in the low to mid 70s. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to move through the area tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Monday (Memorial Day): As the cold front moves towards the area, expect rain and storm chances to linger into Memorial Day on Monday. This will continue to drag the cold front analyzed off to our northwest slowly to the southeast. However, the strongest forcing will remain off to the north, helping the cold front stall up in the ArkLaMiss Delta tomorrow. /DC/ Tomorrow night through the rest of the week: Rather wet and slightly cooler than average conditions generally look to be in the cards for the Lower Mississippi Valley through the period as perturbed southwesterly flow aloft continues.
An upper ridge over Eastern Washington will continue to shift slowly eastward through Memorial Day.
Models continue to show moderate northwesterly flow aloft across Colorado as an upper ridge builds over the western United States. At the surface, high pressure building over Woming and Montana will feed cool northerly winds into northeast Colorado that keeps afternoon temperatures around the 70 degree mark, similar to this afternoon. An upper level ridge will extend from the Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest Monday evening. The ridge weakens as it shifts eastward through the week.
1041 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure will linger over the region into Monday. A weak cold front will gradually sag south across the area prior to midweek. Atlantic high pressure will extend west over the region late week into the upcoming weekend.
930 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Monday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
As of 19Z a closed upper low continues to spin across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure continues to build in across the central plains. Sunny skies will continue through the remainder of the day with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s! A weak surface front will sag southward through the outlook area late tonight/early Monday morning.