Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
235 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 The forecast concerns for the short term include the diminishing fog across the southeast, a brief period of gusty winds with a cold frontal passage this evening, and the cooler temperatures Wednesday. The fog area will be permanently (for the short term) swept away by a leading trough that will bring northwest mixing winds this afternoon. This will be followed by a more potent cold frontal passage this evening, bringing colder temperatures and some gusty northwest winds, and will, for the most part be a dry frontal passage with just some slight chances for light snow north central this evening. On Wednesday night a moderate to strong pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in Ontario and deepening low pressure in southwest Alberta.
Otherwise, WV imagery shows an upper ridge in place over Baja del Sur, leaving the area under dry, NW flow aloft. Unfortunately, a cold front moving thru the Central Plains will move thru the region Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 11Z, courtesy of a fast-moving trough dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes area. Thu night, an upper trough will make landfall in the PacNW, and quickly move to the central CONUS by 12Z Sat.
316 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 A southeastward moving cold front will move into MO tonight.
Tonight and Wednesday An approaching surface system and mid level trough will combine with increasing low level moisture to bring rain to the area during the night. Rain should gradually come to an end during the day, but snow showers are expected across north central Wisconsin due to cold advection over the warmer waters of Lake Superior.
Cooler in the wake of the cold frontal passage with 700 mb temperatures near 1 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Overnight, much of the region will see some clearing, as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to move in. With this clearing, a few of the higher valleys along the Continental Divide (Such as Butte, Avon, and the Seeley/Swan Region) could dip into the lower teens, if not single digits. Valleys further west in western Montana and north-central Idaho, have a good chance in seeing fog and/or stratus developing, that will keep these areas from dropping below the low 20s. One phenomena that could lessen the chances for fog and keeping lows in the mid to upper 20s in and around Missoula, is an easterly drainage wind through Hellgate Canyon, that could keep the low- levels mixed. Precipitation will begin to spread into central Idaho and western Montana Wednesday night, ahead of an approaching cold front.
1226 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure should result in mainly dry weather through Wednesday morning. Rain chances return with a late Wednesday cold front. Clouds will slowly erode this afternoon, generally from south to north, as high pressure slides across and winds veer towards the east with time. Mainly clear skies are expected tonight as the high continues EWD.
Computer models hint at a few sites experiencing VFR fog overnight, the low levels of the atmosphere looks to be a bit dry thus mitigating the insertion of fog mention at this time. Although shifting to the northeast, high pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area over the next 24 hours. This shift will cause winds across the CWA to be more east northeasterly today, in addition to conditions being a touch warmer. However, towards day break Wednesday, some clouds will begin working their way into the Delta due to increasing moisture and upglide ahead of a cold front that should be dropping southeast into the Ozarks.
Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 122 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure in central Ohio will move northeast this evening. Southerly flow will bring in warmer air and more moisture, eventually getting wrung out as showers with the next cold frontal passage on Wednesday.
341 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Upper level pattern shows the apex of a trough passing east across the eastern quarter of the country.
Southerly flow in the low-levels across portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau is resulting in some light showers early this morning. Cloud cover will once again thicken overnight given continued southerly flow in the low-levels. The leading edge of a weak cold front may drift into the northern portions of Val Verde and Edwards county tomorrow afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will remain in place over the U.
250 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the island chain.
300 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Messy forecast for this evening, but luckily temperatures are all above freezing so any precipitation should remain liquid. Approaching mid level trough continues to hold area in warm air advection regime, with hints of a warm front laid up across northeast Iowa as of 19z. Quiet weather settles in for a bit mid week, with ridge passage Wednesday night.
1116 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Below-seasonal temperature trends will finally come to an end today as a weak mid-level ridge advects overhead atop steady southerly return flow at the surface. High temperatures will approach the mid to upper 50s across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with values in the lower 50s across central and eastern Missouri. Increased 850 hPa flow ahead of lee-side low pressure to the west will aid in widespread ascent for light rain and drizzle throughout the morning and afternoon hours today. This feature will force the previously mentioned lee-side low eastward and provide for modest ascent ahead of and along the surface cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
333 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will be across our region tonight as a weak upper low slides east into the Maritimes. The high will remain over the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
After the chilly, clear start this morning and a bit of river fog, an area of low clouds across northeast Alabama and east Tennessee is spreading northwest into our southeast counties in the low level southeasterly flow per the 12Z OHX sounding. VFR will continue through the next 24 hours as the center of high pressure moves off to the east.
After 15/12Z, winds will shift to the NE and become gusty as a cold front begins to push southward through the area, and while low clouds/fog may be possible with the front Wednesday morning, timing uncertainty precludes inclusion in this issuance. Lee troughing will develop later today and southerly winds will increase along with clearing skies.
211 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 A southeastward moving cold front will move into MO tonight.
With northwesterly flow aloft and north-northeasterly flow at the lower levels, expect clear skies and near-normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area this afternoon and overnight lows will dip into the low-mid 40s.
A cold front will be approaching later tonight with a few showers possible over NE AR and the MO Bootheel toward sunrise.
Low level moisture has been in place ahead of the trough for several days now with an elevated mixed layer around 750 mb above this low level moisture.
Temperatures are expected to range from the lower 30s to mid 30s for most areas. Will once again have patchy freezing fog in for areas that dip down to freezing. Clear conditions to start the day tomorrow but upper level clouds moving in through the day out ahead of an advancing cold front.
PN Gusty winds and near to above normal temperatures will be the theme across Central Montana over the next couple of days, although areas from Havre to Chinook may stay cooler than areas further south.
A somewhat zonal pattern is noted over the CONUS on WV imagery and UA analysis between high pres over the Baja/NW Mexico and a low amplitude trough over the eastern states.
Cold front south of this system moving thru ern ND at mid aftn and will move thru the RRV 23z-01z period and then eastern fcst area toward 06z. Rest of the area eastward has the low clouds but vsbys in fog improved greatly during the late morning. This will help ease winds as a surface ridging sliding across the region overnight however looks to lag behind the bulk of the colder, drier polar air mass leaving some question in cloud cover.
With the west push of the upper high (and any subsidence therefrom), and lack of airmass shifting, temps today rise to around the same level as yesterday, an around seasonal around 70, with overnight lows also relatively unchanged from last night (low 40s north to around 50 along the coast).
Freezing fog is possible along the Milk River Valley near Havre.
243 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. High pressure over the region Tue night retreats to the NE on Wed as a low pressure area track east across the Great Lakes. Warm front lifting ahead of the low will bring chance for showers to western sections early Wed with higher likelihood of showers Wed night into Thu as the low tracks north of PA. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri.
Observations show dew points currently in the upper 50s to low 60s, and with the 850 mb ridge situated over SE TX, conditions should remain dry overnight with precipitable water values lowering overnight to around one inch. Low temperatures tonight should dip into the low 60s to the north and low 70s along the coast.
356 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri.
322 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Ahead of upper level trough that moves through the CWA later this evening there remains a slight chance of precip in the western third of the CWA. As this trough approaches, large scale ascent increases accompanied by a strengthening LLJ. There are expected to be gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage late Wed.
344 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Tonight through Wednesday: Slight northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region tonight, and sharpen a bit by tomorrow, courtesy of slight amplification of UA ridging across western CONUS. Will therefore see slightly warm temps across the western zones where cloud cover will commence to invade /middle to upper 40s/ versus slightly cooler conditions across the eastern zones before cloud cover moves in /lower 40s/. This increase in cloud cover is courtesy of an UA low translating eastward from the Northern Plains to across the Great Lakes Region by tomorrow aftn, and concurrently its trailing cold frontal boundary nearing southeast AR by the end of the short term period.
Luckily, a strong upper level trough with jet stream support and an attendant surface cold front will be coming through the region overnight tonight and Wednesday morning. Temperatures behind the cold front will be near normal for this time of year. The end of the week looks have sunny skies for the most part as high pressure slowly moves to the east.
/issued 301 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ Lee troughing to our west will strengthen through tonight and surface winds will become more westerly. Both of these factors should help to erode the low stratus deck that has persisted for the past several days. Clearing skies and downsloping warming component of the wind will result in warmer temperatures today. Areas that see more sun earlier will warm more quickly with the highest temps in the far southwestern Panhandle.
The mostly clear skies and a light/near calm wind regime in the seasonably cool air mass will cause temperatures to tumble into the upper 30s and lower 40s by late evening with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 30s. The air mass remains seasonably cool and with skies becoming partly- mostly cloudy, limited insolation will make it feel even cooler. The expected cloud cover Wednesday night will trap some of the terrestrial radiation, leading to slightly warmer overnight temperatures.
A brief cold front will pass late tonight, perhaps with a small window for low clouds mainly before daybreak over the Rolling Plains, but much drier and breezier afterwards.
A weak ridge will transition across the area today. A system near 140W and 35N will be lifted northeastward by the trough off the British Columbia coast and precipitation will spread across SE Oregon Wednesday morning and into SW Idaho by Wednesday afternoon. Satellite showing cold front moving through the Boise and McCall area this morning. Otherwise, short lived upper ridge to move into the region later today through Wednesday morning bringing a temporary reprieve to the precipitation before the next system moves in Wednesday afternoon.
This should allow for the sun to come out and with dew points expected to climb into the low to mid 60s, surface CAPE values should rise past 1200 J/Kg.
This would be most noteable over the higher terrain of the north-central U. A low pressure system approaching from the Plains will cause deteriorating conditions overnight through Tuesday as snow and lower cloud cover develop.
122 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and possible thunderstorms.
Did add some freezing drizzle to northeast after getting a couple reports.
Latest guidance still supports northerly wind gusts to around 60 mph as the cold front blasts through overnight into Tuesday.
Models remaining on track with the timing of the cold front entering into our northern coun- ties late this afternoon, then just off the upper TX coast around midnight. Drier/cooler conditions expected in the wake of the front as N/NE develop Weds. Seas of 4-7 feet with the higher seas beyond 20 nm will hoist an SCA through 3 PM. Cold front pushes out into the Gulf this evening and will bring showers and thunderstorms and available CAPE and shear should support at least strong thunderstorms with the FROPA.
Weak troughiness is shifting east of the area this morning with a dry northwesterly to westerly flow behind it. High pressure with associated thickness increases will push already warm temperatures back to around 10 to 12 degrees above average over the next couple of days and into the coming weekend. The transition season storm track will remain well north of our area with only gusty winds to mark the passing of trailing troughs through the region from time to time.
557 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity as it lifts northward today. A low pressure center will cross east through northern Ohio this evening, trailing a cold front that will have a line of thunderstorms race eastward through the Ohio Valley.
Cold front arrival still expected near to just a bit after sunrise. A cold front will be racing southward entering our northern zones near or just after daybreak Tuesday with windy northerly flow while surface pressure rises around 10 millibars per three hours press southward into the Panhandle.
A cold front will move south across the region and bring very gusty winds, especially across the northern terminals. A strong cold front will move through the KABI around 17z, KSJT around 19z, and the southern 3 sites between 20z and 21z. /issued 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Cold front is draped just south of our CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will remain steady or even rise after midnight as the warm front surges north across the area. The next strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the CWA by the late morning and early afternoon.
Warm front has lifted north toward the I-70 corridor, taking most of its convection north of our Indiana counties as of 07Z. Shear profiles support potential for discrete supercells ahead of the approaching cold front, but the limiting factor (self-limiting?) in our tornado threat will be the trade-off between instability to initiate deep convection and the helicity and low LCLs to support tornadogenesis.
541 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Temperatures are definitely starting out warmer than yesterday. Lafayette, Alexandria, Jasper all were warmer as well. Things are heating up across the central and southern plains today as a vigorous Upper level trough is digging into the central plains and appears to be syncing up with a Baja trough. This will definitely create a lot of instability today with a warm cap aloft keeping the energy pinned in for the approaching cold front tonight.
Dynamic upper trough that brought heavy snow to most of southern Montana and northern Wyoming was sliding across eastern zones early this morning. Highs today will be warmer, but held down by fresh snow cover. Should have a better shot at warmer air on Wednesday with persistent downslope flow and increasing 850mb temperatures.
455 AM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 High pressure moving into Montana this morning is pushing snow to the east. High pressure moves into the plains today, with lee trof developing across central Montana. Moisture will begin streaming through the northwest flow as ridge builds along the west coast. Another potential potent storm system will cross Montana over the weekend as upper trof moves through the northern Rockies. Ebert A mix of low VFR and MVFR early this morning as the low pressure storm system moves east. Conditions at all sites will improve to VFR today as high pressure builds into the region.
Flat H5 ridging across the southeast will give way to falling heights today as a trough slides east out of the Plains into the MS valley. At the surface, a warm front has lifted well north of the TN valley, while surface cyclogenesis is underway beneath the aforementioned Plains trough. The front looks to clear the region by NLT than sunrise setting up building high pressure and drier/cooler conditions for Wednesday. But broad troughing will be fairly persistent across the East, and so temps will average below normal for the period as a whole.
The cold front should begin to move through the area around midnight tonight with sh/ts just ahead of it. The front's southern end begins to feel the effects of a building mid level ridge to the southwest as the front moves into the gulf. Another cold front is projected to move to the coast or just offshore by the weekend. Conditions will improve during the day today for a short period before the cold front nears the area and increases rain chances after 00Z. The strongest winds will hold off until the cold front moves into the coastal waters, which should be around daylight Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Upper level trough is moving over Baja California and will move into Central Texas late today. Ahead of the front today temperatures will warm up well above normal in the low to mid 90s along and west of Interstate 69-E. An isolated wind gust may approach 40 mph in the lower RGV, but we should be under Wind Advisory criteria today as the low-level jet weakens slightly.
426 AM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 The cold front has just about exited the region and winds have subsided somewhat though plenty of areas continue to see gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Cases in point: Meeker is 28 degrees cooler, Aspen is 20 degrees cooler, and Grand Junction is 15 degrees cooler. Southern areas still remain fairly warm but this will change as cooler air continues to drop southward.
Temperatures will cool back to near normal today behind a weak cold front that swept through the area overnight.
452 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 High pressure over the region will move eastward today as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. This will keep above normal temperatures and dry weather in place today with a cold front crossing the area Wednesday along with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Surface warm front is just north of the KS/OK border early this morning. Winds drop off tonight and excellent radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the lower 20s across northeast Oklahoma to lower 30s farther south.
Appears we've had a pre- frontal trough work across the central portions of the forecast area with winds shifting to the WNW. As the cold front rolls through tonight, showers will increase across portions of northwest Colorado and the mountains of west central and southwest Colorado. Very dry air will advect into the region behind the cold front tonight, shutting off any chance of precipitation by the early morning hours on Tuesday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday as the cooler airmass remains over the region in northwesterly flow. Temperatures will also begin to rebound to near normal on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the Southwest US.
439 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity as it lifts northward today. A low pressure center will cross east through northern Ohio this evening, trailing a cold front that will have a line of thunderstorms race eastward through the Ohio Valley.
Snow over the area will diminish from west to east this evening and overnight as an upper trough slides overhead and eventually off to the east.
A cool but dry airmass over the area today will yield to warmer and increasingly moist conditions for the latter half of the week.
A cold front will move quickly through the forecast area this morning, with strong north winds aloft mixing to the surface, particularly across the north-central and northeast parts of the Combined Panhandles. Have omitted the southwest Texas Panhandle from the higher winds, due to this area being most removed from the strongest 850 mb winds. Winds turn to southeast tonight as post-frontal ridge builds into western Oklahoma. South and southwest winds increase on Wednesday as developing lee trof over eastern New Mexico creates a tight pressure gradient over the Panhandles.
This is a bit concerning considering the high QPF and I cannot discount it.
Quiet conditions expected today, with a cooler start this morning.
Cold air advection in association with an upper level trough coming through the central plains plus the development of post frontal stratus should keep temperatures cooler through the day along and east of a line from Dodge City to Hays. Overnight lows will be a bit of a challenge since it looks like from Dodge on east with the coldest of the airmass still in place, dew points in the low teens, light winds, and no clouds radiational cooling could cause lows to fall into the upper 10s to low 20s.
A cold front will be approaching the region late in the TAF period with winds expected to shift more out of the NE then N with the frontal passage.
255 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 As of 3 am the cold front was currently across southern Kansas and is expected to enter the CWA around 12Z and clear the southern counties by 18Z.
654 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity as it lifts northward today. A low pressure center will cross east through northern Ohio this evening, trailing a cold front that will have a line of thunderstorms race eastward through the Ohio Valley.
Fog, drizzle/freezing drizzle ahead of the front, a wintry mix/snow behind the cold front and don't forget the wind.
The high-res cam models (convection allowing models) are in strong agreement with the 00z nam on most aspects of the forecast. A strong cold front will sweep southeast into the region today, reaching a kmvn to kpof line around 21z. Once the front exits western KY this evening, much cooler and drier air will arrive overnight. Some places may drop slightly below freezing in se Missouri and srn Illinois. The better chance of widespread frost or freezing temps will be Wednesday night. Clear skies and light winds will likely result in widespread frost, even where temps manage to stay above freezing.