Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s, and winds on land are from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near Bermuda, with a cold front extending from the Mid Mississippi Valley into South Texas. The Keys lie within gentle southeast flow around the high. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows zonal flow across the southern tier of the CONUS, downstream of a closed low over the desert Southwest, with a flat ridge extending from the Bahamas across the western Caribbean and into the Bay of Campeche. 37 inches, the nearby lower/mid level ridge continues to provide abundant dry air above 850 mb.
855 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Cold front dropping into the area this evening with temperatures over southern and central Alberta/Sask mainly in the 40s, 30s to the north. 76 Gusty downslope winds have helped mix out the lower atmosphere, bringing surface temperatures up into the 60s for many locations. Very dry conditions in the lower atmosphere will make for some virga showers initially and then likely some light rain showers for a brief period before ending.
A time lapse of GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows snow leftover from the most recent winter storm melting rapidly as temperatures increased well above freezing today with plenty of sunshine.
GOES visible satellite imagery this afternoon showed clearing skies and rapidly melting snow cover thanks to the high mid April sun angle. Saturday Much warmer to start the weekend with gusty southwest winds, between 30 to 40 mph, developing by the afternoon.
548 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Quiet day across the Western Slope today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest this evening ahead of the next Pacific trough which will trek inland from southern California and across Arizona between midnight tonight and daybreak Saturday. Conditions will remain dry until mid Saturday morning when the aforementioned trough lifts across western Colorado. Even though this disturbance is set to move into the region within the next 24 to 36 hours, discrepancies still plague the models in terms of where the trough will be centered. Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast across the highest peaks along the Divide through Saturday night.
On Saturday an approaching pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front over the deep south will bring increasing rain chances to the region especially from the I-4 corridor north into the Nature coast during the day. It will be warm and humid with highs in the lower 80s north, and mid to upper 80s central and south. High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula will maintain south to southwest winds around 10 knots with slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Saturday with an enhanced Gulf sea breeze Saturday afternoon.
A weak upper low will bring clouds, cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers on Saturday.
/issued 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020/ (Tonight and Saturday) Cold front has moved through the entire area, and much colder temperatures have taken hold. For tonight, we will see temperatures drop into the upper 30s well north of I-20 to the upper 40s along the I-10 corridor, as cooler air continues to filter in. 20 (Saturday Night through Next Friday) Southerly return flow should continue Saturday night as high pressure moves east.
623 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Light winds and clear skies associated with high pressure settling south will support another chilly night across the region. Left locations generally west of I-135 out of the freeze warning, as increasing boundary layer mixing should keep temperatures mostly above freezing. Increasing southerly flow and atmospheric thickness will support warmer temperatures Saturday into the 60s to near 70 degrees.
628 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A cold front is expected to push through the area late this evening and through the overnight hours.
Cut-off upper low moving east through Socal this afternoon is advecting moisture northward over the Sierra.
405 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Clouds are increasing across the region ahead of a cold front that currently stretches across southern IN and into eastern TX. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with relatively low humidity. We'll dry out pretty quickly by the afternoon as a weak ridge quickly moves east-northeast across eastern CONUS.
Showers and isolated storms in a band from the KEVV tri-state into southern IL will continue southeast with a cold front through the early evening. Expanded the Advisory south with all areas dropping into the low to mid 30s.
641 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 The main forecasting concern overnight will be the potential for widespread sub- freezing temperatures, which could lead to another frosty night across the Ozarks. Regional surface obs from early this afternoon depict a cold front extending from Indianapolis to Paducah to Fort Smith. Behind this front, a modified Canadian air mass is spreading across southwest Missouri as a robust mid-level trough digs across the mid-Mississippi valley. With the drier Canadian air mass settling in behind the front, temperatures overnight will consequently dip into the lower 30s. Scattered showers will develop across the Four States region as warm/moist isentropic ascent lifts over a warm front displaced well to our south.
(Previous Discussion) Saturday looks to be a more active weather day for east central FL as an approaching cold front from the northwest brings adequate forcing for strong to potentially severe thunderstorm development. South winds will swing southwest early Saturday, leading to much higher afternoon max temperatures in the low 90s south of Orlando and mid/upper 80s to the north where cloud cover/cooling rain will limit the effect of SW flow. Southeast winds this evening up to 15 knots offshore will veer to the south-southwest and diminish to 10-15 knots overnight as weak front lifts back north as a warm front.
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Light winds and clear skies associated with high pressure settling south will support another chilly night across the region. Left locations generally west of I-135 out of the freeze warning, as increasing boundary layer mixing should keep temperatures mostly above freezing. Increasing southerly flow and atmospheric thickness will support warmer temperatures Saturday into the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Temperatures this morning have dropped into the upper 20s in a few places, and the southward extent of the sub- freezing temperatures is greater than initially forecast, stretching as far south as I-40.
Temperatures will recover today from chilly early morning lows from 25 to around 30 to afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s, except only 40s over deeper snow areas.
145 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Low pressure bringing widespread precipitation will move east overnight as high pressure and dry air build from the west. Dry cool and cool weather is forecast for Saturday under the influence of high pressure.
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A cold front will swing through the Dakotas today.
Temperatures early this morning have dipped near or just below freezing, and likewise will continue the ongoing freeze warning for areas with sensitive spring vegetation. High pressure shifts east of the area today, returning breezy southwesterly winds and warming temperatures into the low/mid 60s by afternoon.
Seeing a decent temperature gradient set up as northwesterly winds advect in cooler air, with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s over southern IN to the lower 50s over southeastern KY.
1015 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Quiet day across the Western Slope today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest this evening ahead of the next Pacific trough which will trek inland from southern California and across Arizona between midnight tonight and daybreak Saturday. Conditions will remain dry until mid Saturday morning when the aforementioned trough lifts across western Colorado. Even though this disturbance is set to move into the region within the next 24 to 36 hours, discrepancies still plague the models in terms of where the trough will be centered. Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast across the highest peaks along the Divide through Saturday night.
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Water vapor satellite this morning show a low amplitude short wave trough near Lake Winnipeg with another over Alberta. A cold front was just entering North Dakota and these waves will propel this across the area tonight. With the low amplitude to the short wave trough, the pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer is expected to stay well to the north of the area. 00Z HREF seem to confirm this with only some spotty activity shown along the front as it passes through the area with the better coverage remaining farther north closer to the short wave trough.
1107 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Rain and snow should end early Saturday morning as low pressure exits.
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Rain and snow should end early Saturday morning as low pressure exits.
The cold front is just making its way through the Great Valley at this hour with widespread light to moderate showers advancing quickly across the Southern Appalachian Region. Quiet night expected with lows ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A weak high pressure area was centered over eastern Kansas this afternoon and is expected to continue to slide to the southeast through this evening and overnight. With that said, we should be able to fall to or several degrees below freezing for several hours tonight, with temperatures becoming steady or warming slightly early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will begin to warm up starting Saturday with southwesterly low-level flow and short wave ridging aloft. There will still be some snow cover left in northern Missouri so while most of the forecast area climbs into the low to mid 60s, areas over the snow cover will be stuck in the 50s.
WAA in advance of this wave will try to moisten the lower levels sufficiently by afternoon for showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of the area.
1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 The main forecasting concern overnight will be the potential for widespread sub- freezing temperatures, which could lead to another frosty night across the Ozarks. Regional surface obs from early this afternoon depict a cold front extending from Indianapolis to Paducah to Fort Smith. Behind this front, a modified Canadian air mass is spreading across southwest Missouri as a robust mid-level trough digs across the mid-Mississippi valley. With the drier Canadian air mass settling in behind the front, temperatures overnight will consequently dip into the lower 30s. Scattered showers will develop across the Four States region as warm/moist isentropic ascent lifts over a warm front displaced well to our south.
Leading edge of cooler air which will keep tomorrow cooler has tracked through KGGW and its approach will lower winds at gap flow areas overnight. The surface pressure gradient weakens early Saturday morning as upper trough and associated cold front move toward the region. Saturday our flow gradually turns cyclonic again as an upper trough connected to strong Hudson Bay low shifts moves into the Pacific NW. The associated cold front slips into our CWA from the north/northeast by early afternoon.
High pressure is situated from the southern Plains into the Midwest. A seasonably deep upper level low is rotating across the northern portion of Hudson Bay, keeping broad cyclonic flow across southern Canada and the northern CONUS. A well defined short wave trough is currently swinging east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions, with an upper level jet max currently streaking across eastern Kentucky/West Virginia. Further south, flow is fairly zonal from the Arklatex to the southeastern CONUS, with an upper level low/vort max currently rotating across northern Arizona. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in the north, to the lower 50s across the south.
314 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Rain and snow should end early this morning as low pressure exits.
The Evening Update: Convection has once again diminished over the Sierra and mainly the Windward side of the coastal range as the closed low to our south has moved into AZ, and the offshore open wave has moved W of the SFO Bay area. JHM Cut-off upper low moving east through Socal this afternoon is advecting moisture northward over the Sierra.
Trailing upper wave at the base of the trough tracking through the Ohio Valley this morning with upper level ridging/negative upper level PV advection today over Lower Michigan to provide general subsidence/mostly sunny skies. Increasing low level warm advection/southwest winds ahead of the next cold front, and soundings and local probabilistic guidance suggests gusts at/above 25 mph/20 knots late this afternoon as mixing depths extend at/above 5000 feet.
Cold front is just starting to work its way into the northwest, with strong northwesterly winds and temp drops showing up at Clarksville. As transient ridging influences surface and aloft build into mid state region from 08/09Z onward but shift eastward as 19/06Z approaches, northerly surface winds will decrease to 5-10 kt range with scattered/broken cirrus moving west to east across region 19/00Z-19/06Z.
Highs today are expected to be in the upper 60s into the low 70s.
High pressure currently extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains will settle south of the region today, allowing a S/SW return flow to strengthen as the day progresses. Further south in closer proximity to the ridge axis, winds will remain much lighter south of I-70. As the high shifts away, a cold front will approach from the northwest late tonight.
342 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Upper low near the 4 Corners Region this morning with a secondary trough swinging across Srn CA. The low will track E across the TX/OK Panhandles today with the trough moving into the area tonight.
Upper level ridging will build over the region tonight through Saturday morning. High pressure at the surface over western Kansas today will move off to the east tonight. Skies will be clear under the ridge through this evening. These south southwest winds will continue to increase into the 20 to 25 knot range between 15z and 18z Saturday as surface pressures continue to fall over eastern Colorado as a trough of low pressure approaches the Colorado/Kansas border.
Currently, a weak cold front extended from northeast North Dakota back through west central North Dakota.
Cold front was located south of a line from VCT to BEA to COT at this time and expect the front will be near a LRD to CRP line by 08Z. Front will stall over the Gulf waters this afternoon and return into the coastal region this evening as a warm front.
Temperatures are already in the lower to middle 80s throughout the island chain; climatologically speaking, this is representative of our typical daytime high temperatures for this time of year. The anomalously-warm conditions are owing to an expansive mid- and upper-level ridge with its axis oriented over South Florida.
747 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Dry weather expected through Sunday morning under high pressure, before a cold front returns scattered showers chances Sunday afternoon and night. Dry weather and a clearing trend is expected today under building high pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather through Sunday morning as it moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected to develop with the approach and passage of the trough/front.
15 with the area of high pressure centralized over the region. Will eventually see mid/upper level moisture increase this evening, but the lower 12kft still look pretty dry by the late evening and not seeing much chance of precipitation until after midnight. Lows tonight will be much warmer than current conditions with readings expected to be from the mid to upper 40s.
423 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Cold front moving through the region this morning providing focus for an upper level disturbance tracking through the southeastern CONUS this morning. The break in the precip later today will be brief, however, as the next wave moves across the Southern Plains, lifting that same frontal boundary back north as a warm front later this evening/overnight. The short wave will continue to drive a cold front into the region, with continued chances of storms through Sunday morning into the afternoon hours.
539 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Rain and snow should end early this morning as low pressure exits. Dry weather is then expected through Sunday morning under high pressure, before a cold front returns scattered showers chances Sunday afternoon and night. Any remaining light rain/snow behind the steady precipitation should end early this morning with the passage of the upper trough axis. Dry weather and a clearing trend is then expected for the rest of the day under building high pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather through Sunday morning as it moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected to develop with the approach and passage of the trough/front.
Look for afternoon highs to only top out in the low 60s under this northerly boundary layer flow. MVFR CIGs across the area expected to improve later this morning, as a passing cold front continues to vacate.
921 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure to build in from the west, offering dry and cool weather today.
/issued 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/ Tranquil weather in store for the Midsouth today, following last night's cold frontal passage. This area will will reside south of a warm front and will more likely see storms rooted in strong surface-based instability. NAM surface Theta-E prog depicts the surface warm front lifting up to a Charleston to Amory MS line Sunday afternoon, with a frontal wave near Charleston at 21Z (4PM CDT).
213 AM PDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A weak trough, coupled with a deep marine layer, will bring a few showers along and west of the mountains today.
As an area of low pressure moves south through northern Klamath County this morning, areas in northern Douglas and Klamath county have become more favorable for light amounts of rain.
427 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Clouds have cleared out and winds were light over the CWA early this morning as high pressure was centered over southern Missouri. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s, so will leave the going frost advisory/freeze warning as is through 9 am. The high will move off to the east today which will cause warm air advection to begin later today. Ahead of the trough, strong low level moisture convergence will cause showers to develop late tonight into Sunday as this system moves across the area. Have kept the highest PoPs south of I-70 with model MUCAPES showing some modest MUCAPE late tonight into tomorrow over parts of central and southeast Missouri.
519 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Tranquil weather in store for the Midsouth today, following last night's cold frontal passage. This area will will reside south of a warm front and will more likely see storms rooted in strong surface-based instability. NAM surface Theta-E prog depicts the surface warm front lifting up to a Charleston to Amory MS line Sunday afternoon, with a frontal wave near Charleston at 21Z (4PM CDT).
Northeasterly flow shouldn't impact temperatures too drastically especially as clouds clear in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 60s. Some model differences continue on the organization and exact timing of the midweek system, but the southern-plains track of the low seems relatively consistent.
Sunday the trough becomes a warm front as a low builds over Texas and the warmfront pushes north.
High pressure in place over Missouri will build across Indiana and the Ohio Valley today before pushing east of the Carolinas by Sunday Morning.
653 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Today will start out mostly sunny and mild with southwest winds, but a cold front will move through the region and bring some clouds and northwest winds, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday.
For Sunday, temperatures cool to back below normal for most of the area behind the cold frontal passage.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler and breezy conditions today along with a chance for light showers. Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded S/WV and sfc cold front over northern North Dakota. Cold front will be driven south across the remainder of the state this morning followed by a somewhat more defined S/WV sliding southeast across the region this afternoon/early evening.
The rest of today and much of tonight will be dry as high pressure over the Missouri Ozarks shifts east into the Tennessee Valley by day's end. Lows tonight should dip into the lower to middle 40s as clouds increase through the night.
602 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Water vapor satellite this morning show a low amplitude short wave trough near Lake Winnipeg with another over Alberta. A cold front was just entering North Dakota and these waves will propel this across the area tonight. With the low amplitude to the short wave trough, the pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer is expected to stay well to the north of the area. 00Z HREF seem to confirm this with only some spotty activity shown along the front as it passes through the area with the better coverage remaining farther north closer to the short wave trough. Sunday will be cooler than today with afternoon high temperatures being around 10 degrees lower.
Trailing upper wave at the base of the trough tracking through the Ohio Valley this morning with upper level ridging/negative upper level PV advection today over Lower Michigan to provide general subsidence/mostly sunny skies. Increasing low level warm advection/southwest winds ahead of the next cold front, and soundings and local probabilistic guidance suggests gusts at/above 25 mph/20 knots late this afternoon as mixing depths extend at/above 5000 feet. Cold front on track to move through late Sunday morning/Sunday afternoon.
255 AM PDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Spotty, mainly light precipitation will come to an end today as a low pressure system moves farther away from the Golden State.
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A cold front will swing through the Dakotas today. H85 temps will fall to -4C tonight and Sunday resulting in some cooler temps at the sfc behind this front. That will be reinforced by persistent upper troughing.
Temperatures are forecast to be cooler through the weekend.
638 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Clouds have cleared out and winds were light over the CWA early this morning as high pressure was centered over southern Missouri. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s, so will leave the going frost advisory/freeze warning as is through 9 am. The high will move off to the east today which will cause warm air advection to begin later today. Ahead of the trough, strong low level moisture convergence will cause showers to develop late tonight into Sunday as this system moves across the area. Have kept the highest PoPs south of I-70 with model MUCAPES showing some modest MUCAPE late tonight into tomorrow over parts of central and southeast Missouri.
A cold front enters the state after midnight and may bring low clouds to far northeast Colorado by sunrise Sunday morning. Northwest flow will be over Colorado on Sunday as a trough drifting southeastward over the Intermountain West weakens throughout the day.
Although some days will be more active than others, there will be a chance of showers and storm each day (especially in the higher terrain) across the forecast area.
A weak cold front is expected to move across the terminals tonight with northwest to north winds in its wake.
First, a weak cold front will gradually intrude into the region from the north today before dissipating tonight.
ML/UL troughs swing by very early Mon. This low is just a head of a pretty sharp upper trough. Upper trough moves east overnight Thu, setting up dry Wx Fri for most. MVFR CIGs across the area expected to improve later this morning, as a passing cold front continues to vacate.