Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW PRESSURE IS TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO MENTION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
308 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE CURRENT BENIGN CONDITIONS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF THE WEST BUT DONT ANTICIPATE REAL DENSE SCENARIO AS WINDS PERSIST AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES.
Meanwhile, A trough of low pressure at the surface will be located across eastern Colorado through tonight leading to southerly winds across the forecast area. Another round of freezing fog will be possible again tonight after midnight but farther east than what we saw this morning. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 40s across central Kansas to around 60 degrees across far southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, A trough of low pressure at the surface will be located across eastern Colorado through tonight leading to southerly winds across the forecast area. Another round of freezing fog will be possible again tonight after midnight but farther east than what we saw this morning. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 40s across central Kansas to around 60 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF ND/MN BORDER WITH WARM FRONT EAST OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW WEST INTO SOUTHERN AB. AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TAKING WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST SD/SOUTHEAST MT LATE TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL RACE EAST TO WESTERN MT/WY. UPPER TROUGH RACES INTO THE PLAINS WITH MAIN ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAKER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS MT INTO ND PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SN OVER NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
1034 AM MST SAT JAN 23 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE TODAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER AND LESS DOWNSLOPE KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST. MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER UTAH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA.
Southerly flow on Sunday with good warm advection should push temperatures well above freezing across the entire area. Went middle of the road between warmer MAV and cooler MET for temperatures except leaned on the MAV up north which brings temperatures into the upper 30s due to the strong warm advection.
Winds will diminish to 10 kts or less around 00z, but are expected to increase by late evening at KABI/KSJT as the low-level jet begins to mix to the surface. The surface anticyclone over the southern Plains is nosing into the CWA, resulting in light and variable winds for much of the region. By sunrise, most of the CWA will be in the low/mid 20s, but a few low-lying areas could dip into the upper teens. After a cold start to the day, temperatures will rebound nicely as southerly winds increase in response to a developing lee trough. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph are anticipated this afternoon, with high temperatures in the low/mid 60s for most of the area. This will result in warmer overnight low temperatures, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
1143 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 UPDATE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE OF 1000MB ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN. THIS CYCLONE WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
110 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DUMP SNOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. CLD FREE SKIES IN ASSOCN/W FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MID-HIGH LVL SUBSIDENCE ALG NWRN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LYRD CYCLONE ACRS THE MID ATL COAST WILL WKN W/TIME AS CYCLONE PIVOTS OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATL. UPSTREAM VEERING LL FLW AND MODEST BLOSSOM IN LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ACCENTUATE GROSS MASS MSTR FLUX OF LKS MI AND HN W/GENERAL SWD EXPANSION/DVLPMNT OF STRATOCU CIGS LTR THIS MORNING OF WHICH WILL CAP POTENTIAL DIURNAL TEMP RISES THIS AFTN. SUNDAY STILL LOOKING QUIET WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
AND THIS WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVHD AS THE E COAST STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. AND TEMPS AS A RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
215 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016 THE NEXT TROUGH WAS ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS AND WEAKENS INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SO THE CENTRAL CO MTN ADVISORIES BEGIN AT NOON. OTHER ZONES THAT MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY SNOW CRITERIA INCLUDE THE EASTERN UTAH MTNS AND THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN.
1103 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALBERTA WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. TO THE LOWER 40S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ON SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A POWERFUL MID LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL STALL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
445 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR THIS REASON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH SRN CANADA TODAY AND THIS WILL INVITE WARM PACIFIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 7-9C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 50F OR WARMER IN SNOW FREE AREAS.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft should keep the region dry through Sunday night.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD. SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS AND SNOW BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER N-NE OVER THE SD PLAINS BEHIND THIS TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRESSURE FALLS RESUMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT EAST WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY JET DIGGING SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
348 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LEADING TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IF PCPN WOULD BE PRODUCED.
1150 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 Well, it has been a week since we have reached freezing at Kansas City and it may happen today as the warm-up begins. Sunday an upper level trough will shift east through the eastern Rockies into the central Plains. This will force an associated cold front into the area late Sunday night. Temperatures will be hovering just below freezing across northern MO allowing for freezing drizzle.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO WEST TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
1226 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 SFC/UPPER LOWS NOW WELL EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAKENING VERTICAL MOTION STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THIS TIME FRAME WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DO NOT THINK LIGHT FREEZING FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM SO DID NOT MENTION IT. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THOUGH NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW MUCH WARMER. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER. THE WARMER AIR AND INCREASING WIND MAY ELEVATE FIRE DANGER. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING A WIND SHIFT.
There is also a threat for localized freezing rain to occur later this afternoon through Sunday morning, mainly along the Interstate 90 corridor, including Missoula and the Northern Bitterroot, and points farther to the north. Sunday a ridge starts to build across the west coast, and starts to cut off the flow of moisture into the Northern Rockies. Mildly unstable northwest flow out of the ridge into the area will allow light snow showers to persist through most of the day, especially over the mountains.
238 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GREATER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE OCCURRED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED BACK BELOW FREEZING. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE THE HIGHS THIS SAT.
36 DEGREES IS THE HIGH SO FAR IN WESTERN FA. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
The amplitude of this ua trough will be such that strong winds will rake portions of the area, and be fairly stout over much of the rest of the region. Since the latest crop of models are in good agreement bringing 50+ kt h7 winds over northwestern reaches of the forecast area, will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch in the Guadalupe Mountains to a High Wind Warning for sustained westerly winds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts near 70 mph.
350 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE VAST PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT THUS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGING. WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. CENTER OF UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES SET UP FOR THE FINAL WEEK IN JANUARY.
Overnight lows will also be several degrees warmer, generally in the 30s to around 40 degrees, except for across the Marfa Plateau where lows in the mid 20s are possible. Temperatures Sunday will climb to 15 to 20 degrees above normal across the area under a substantial 850mb thermal ridge, with afternoon highs ranging from around 70 degrees to near 80 degrees across the region, even warmer across the Rio Grande Valley.
THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR AT THE 7H LEVEL TO MOVE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AXIS OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT SOME DEEP INVERSIONS OVER THE NORTH AND AS A RESULT A NUMBER OF AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH ISN/T EXACTLY INTUITIVE.
MGM AND TOI WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW AS THE LOW HAS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN THE EAST. 16 DRY ON SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
1040 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 SFC/UPPER LOWS NOW WELL EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAKENING VERTICAL MOTION STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.
1202 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 High pressure ridge axis over Central Illinois with mostly sunny skies this morning. Sunshine will help temps to climb to close to freezing later this afternoon. as ridge of high pressure currently west of the Mississippi River shifts slowly eastward today. As the high approaches, the winds will switch to the N by midday, then eventually to the W/NW by late afternoon. Due to the sunshine, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than guidance in the lower 30s.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL AT KDHT AND KGUY CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS. TAKING A LOOK AT TODAYS WEATHER WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO AREA WIDE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER AND HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE 70 MARK. BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LOWEST.
407 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED BACK BELOW FREEZING. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE THE HIGHS THIS SAT.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS ON TRACK WITH A COLD FRONT TO OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OBSERVED FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.
351 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE BIG STORM MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS IN THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH SO WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE THERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON AN EAST NORTHEAST TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY. A WEAK TROF CROSSING THE ST. LAWRENCE SUN NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SN SHWRS TO THE WRN CWA, BUT THE TROF APPEARS LIKELY TO FIZZLE AND ANY PRECIP DISSIPATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE APPROACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AS WELL WITH A RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IN CONTROL KEEPING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY BRING GULF MOIST AIR INLAND INCREASING RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. DUE TO ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WITH WAA INTO THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WINDS ARE ALREADY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST ND.
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S STILL LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF I-20. ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
Temperatures quickly dropped several degrees when breaks in the clouds appeared, along with a drop in visby, but deck has filled in over last several hours with temperatures generally in the low/mid 20s and some visibility reduced to around 5 miles with haze in some locations. Not expecting much change in the cloud cover today, however southerly winds and WAA in the low levels should help raise high temps into the low/middle 30s for the daytime hours. Given clouds and WAA have kept lows in the low/mid 20s.
253 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED. COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OUT WEST TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS NE SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH S/SE WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION AND LOWER THE HEIGHT FROM THE CURRENT 3,000FT DOWN TO ONLY FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. THE ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING FOG NEEDS TO BE ADDED. THE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREAD IN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE.
CAME VERY CLOSE TO ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING WITH OUR LOCAL HIGH WIND MODEL SHOWING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ROSE WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS AOA 50 F WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOWEST 4K FT. WHICH MEANS THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY IN THE CARDS. SINCE THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT WILL OPT TO PUT A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST AND PASS ON CONCERNS TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT SMOKY AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON AT 16Z WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REACH SW IDAHO AROUND 17Z. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST COMING ONSHORE IN WRN OREGON AND NW CA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WAS PROVIDING MILD AND RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER LOCALLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST APPROACHES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROVIDE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FA.
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 High pressure over the Ozarks will keep temperatures on the cool side for one more day with morning lows in the upper teens to lower 20s and wind chills in the upper single digits to lower teens this morning. This will be the beginning of a warm up however as an upper level ridge makes its way over the region tonight. The upper ridge will move quickly across the region though as another upper level trough moves into the plains Sunday night.
1202 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
1055 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO AREA TAF SITES TODAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE WINDS RESUME AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY.
PLACING WINDCHILL VALUES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
1250 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
322 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 Surface analysis this afternoon shows developing lee trough which has resulted in light south winds. which have aided in scouring out the low clouds we started the day with.
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 High pressure ridge axis over Central Illinois with mostly sunny skies this morning. Sunshine will help temps to climb to close to freezing later this afternoon. as ridge of high pressure currently west of the Mississippi River shifts slowly eastward today. As the high approaches, the winds will switch to the N by midday, then eventually to the W/NW by late afternoon. Due to the sunshine, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than guidance in the lower 30s.
206 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 Canadian high pressure was directly over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today.
Broken to overcast cirrus will continue overnight into Sunday, as the high pressure ridge axis passes SW KS this evening, and SW flow returns on Sunday. 12z NAM is the most aggressive model to redevelop stratus/FZFG again tonight, and included areas of freezing fog in the grids and forecast. Pleasantly mild temperatures expected on Sunday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 40s at Hays, to the lower 60s from Liberal to Elkhart.