Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1052 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. probabilities, albeit still light, will shift north of I 80 after daybreak in accordance with warm front positioning.
519 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the 00Z TAF cycle with brief periods of lower ceilings as a cold front slides into the Panhandles. /Issued 445 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ The upper level low has moved from the four corners area to the northwest corner of the Panhandles. The low will skim over the northern Panhandles and place the area in northwest flow aloft. As the low lifts eastward, ridging will begin to fill into the western CONUS and maintain the dry northwest flow through the remainder of the week.
559 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in advance of an approaching cold front that will move through the state late in the period. Moisture wrapping around the upper low will spread low clouds across the north Monday afternoon.
A cold front will move across the area tonight causing winds to shift to the W and NW. Cooler air moving into the region behind the front will knock high temperatures down Monday compared to this weekend.
South winds will stay gusty through the night with high pressure off the southeast coast and low pressure over the plains. This will keep temps warm, with most places only falling to the lower 50s. By daybreak Monday, the low pressure system will push a cold front eastward to the Ms Valley. The cold front and band of showers will then move eastward across the Mid State through the day.
802 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Quiet weather this evening as we are under ridging aloft. A broad trough was moving onto the Pacific northwest coast this afternoon. The upper trough crashes across the state Monday and Monday night, with the core of the energy sliding across southern Canada.
Low level shear is very strong ahead of the cold front/dryline merger which was located just west of our CWA as of 10pm. Otherwise, did increase pops along and aheadof the approaching cold front for the remainder of the night. /issued 614 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ For the ArkLaTex, VFR for now with looming wx just a couple of hrs away for TYR/GGG as dryline near DFW ahead of a cold front gathers up the Gulf moisture.
Most of the shower activity across the region has diminished and many areas will remain dry for the rest of tonight as high pressure stays in place. Monday will be another dry day across South Florida as high pressure remains in control. /issued 338 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018/ An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through tonight.
/issued 338 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018/ An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through tonight.
A strong low pressure area will track slowly east across Kansas tonight and into northern Missouri on Monday. A warm front was located over extreme southeast Nebraska at 200 PM with temperatures in the 50s and 60s south of the boundary.
The trends of the 850 mb low track would also suggest that I still may not be far enough south with heaviest snowfall axis past 12Z Monday as the low looks like it may head more in an east northeast direction. With the low swinging through south central Kansas into the Kansas City area, this would also indicated a southward shift to the track.
winds have been decreasing across the majority of the CWA therefore the High Wind Warning (except for the Guadalupe Mtns). therefore the High Wind Warning will say in effect til 8 pm MST.
707 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Scattered clouds this evening will increase Monday ahead of a cold front.
445 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 The upper level low has moved from the four corners area to the northwest corner of the Panhandles. The low will skim over the northern Panhandles and place the area in northwest flow aloft. As the low lifts eastward, ridging will begin to fill into the western CONUS and maintain the dry northwest flow through the remainder of the week.
Warm temperatures have resulted in lingering rain across the Treasure Valley this evening as the trough progresses eastward. The Lower Treasure Valley still looks to remain a bit on the warm side for much prevailing snowfall, but the Upper Treasure Valley (mainly east of Boise) and into the Western Magic Valley are expected to receive moderate snowfall through Monday morning. No alterations made to the advisories as the system is generally on track, though slightly warmer temperatures are being observed across the Upper Treasure Valley.
520 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
Once the line/associated cold front cross, conditions improve while winds shift nwrly and increase. /issued 300 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ Wx map shows low pressure over the Central Plains, with high pressure off the Southeast United States, giving our region a south to southeast flow. The other issue tonight will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front, which is expected to move though towards daybreak Monday.
High pressure ridging to the north continues to pull seaward with the approach of the next low pressure system. High pressure to the north continues to pull eastward further into the western Atlc ahead of the next approaching front.
winds are expected to stay light at the surface but increase aloft overnight as upper level trough and cold front approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Lower pressure over southeast Kansas moves into the mid Mississippi Valley by Monday morning and the cold front will approach the Mississippi River by morning.
High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight, followed by a weak storm grazing northern Utah on Monday.
Good mixing will continue which will be able to tap into some higher winds aloft, particularly across the southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains closer to the upper level low.
A transition to MVFR/IFR conditions expected tonight as a cold front approaches from the NW.
The lower level capping inversion present on the 21Z sounding has been removed, however a secondary (higher) inversion remains in place and is resulting in the presence of some inhibition. Expect some clearing overnight as a dry slot wraps around the upper low. The true cold front will sweep across the area early Monday as the upper low transitions eastward. Colder temperatures settle back into the region through mid week before upper level ridging and southerly winds return by late week.
12Z models including the NMMB/ARW and NAM have shifted the track of this low a bit south and east. Went with cooler guidance, where the heavier snowfall is expected.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast across far Eastern and Southeast Oklahoma as well as over Northwest Arkansas ahead of a cold front/dryline that is just starting to enter into Eastern Oklahoma. showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas over the next few hours as the cold front/dryline makes its way eastward through the CWA. The cold front/dryline looks to be exiting Northwest Arkansas during the midnight-2am time frame with precip exiting ahead of the boundary. scattering mid/high clouds are forecast with the potential for increasing low clouds over Northeast Oklahoma as the upper level low moves east northeast into/through Kansas late tonight and Monday.
1006 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and pull any light rain to the north with it. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west.
Additionally, decided to add patchy freezing fog in the Gallatin Valley, as well as West Yellowstone given favorable dewpoint depressions in combination with supportive model guidance.
1038 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A warm front pushing slowly northward across the area will bring occasional light rain or drizzle into early Monday.
602 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and pull any light rain to the north with it. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west.
412 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Water vapor shows upper low developing over sern CO, with surface analysis placing low center over western KS. Snowfall will continue to increase this afternoon and evening across south central SD, especially Mellette Todd and Tripp counties, with upper low deepening even further as it tracks east across KS.
Southerly winds 7 to 12 KTs with gusts up to 20 KTs ahead of the dryline, then winds shift to northwesterly with passage of the dryline this evening into overnight, increasing to 10 to 18 KTs with gusts to 26 KTs with passage of a cold front overnight into early Monday. Pacific cold front and associated storm system is making a slow arrival into western portions of the forecast area this afternoon as shower activity is becoming better congregated along a pre-frontal trough/dryline feature over Central TX. The cold front should become more visible on the map this evening as the strong mixing from the dynamic upper low to the north relaxes.
02 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure NE of the region over Middle Georgia. The beginning signs of stronger return flow off the Gulf was present over the Central and Western Gulf, while over the Eastern Gulf, the low level flow was fairly light. One thing in favor of lower clouds/fog is the very cool waters over Apalachee Bay (water temps are in the low 50s), and not much additional airmass modification would be necessary for stratus to develop later tonight and advect inland once the southerly flow picks up.
This slower clearing may keep temperatures above freezing through the night across far eastern portion of forecast area. This will be a big factor in the low temperatures tonight. Eastern CWA may be a bit shakier with getting lows much below freezing, as the significant clearing likely won't get that far east until late in the night. As our deep upper trough shifts east overnight, a southwest flow will help moderate temperatures on Sunday, into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level swirl, seen in water vapor imagery over northern Saskatchewan this afternoon, will be dropping southeast and forming a closed low this weekend. This will bring another surge of cooler air southward, dropping highs deeper into the 40s by Halloween.
514 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Upper level analysis has large ridge to the west and trof to the east with fast northerly flow aloft across the northern Plains. Skies are mostly clear across the area with just some high clouds spilling over the western ridge. At the surface, warm frontal boundary continues to slowly shift east across the forecast area this afternoon, with west to northwest boundary layer flow present.
Mostly sunny skies with only a few high clouds and cool temperatures continue across South Central Texas this afternoon with most spots in the lower to mid 60s aside from upper 50s in the Hill Country. Ensemble MOS guidance generally has temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 30s across most of the region with some lower 30s in the western Hill Country just above freezing. High temperatures in the lower to mid 70s will once again allow relative humidity values to dip into the teens during the afternoon hours.
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure remains in place across the region keeping conditions dry and quiet. Temperatures for Saturday night will be chilly again, although, warmer than the previous couple nights. Expect lows in the low to mid 30s. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 50s along the South Dakota border to the upper 60s south of I-80. The large scale pattern remains highly amplified early Sunday night and will feature a 500 hPa longwave trough dominating much of CONUS with a closed low near extreme southwest Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will have broken down in the west with a mid-level low moving onshore to southern CA. The large scale upper-level trough will then broaden across the CONUS over the next 48 hours with cyclonic flow prevailing aloft.
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 After morning lows in the low to mid 20s across the area and the first hard freeze of Autumn across the CWA, temperatures have rebounded into the upper 30s to low 40s early this afternoon. The cooler readings were over the eastern CWA, which remained on the western edge of the large stratus deck today. Good radiational cooling will set up, especially across the eastern CWA, which will likely have lows in the low 20s. Further west, temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected and a south wind will begin to set up overnight with the ridge axis shifting east. Southerly winds will set up across the entire area on Sunday along with rising upper heights as the trough shifts east into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley.
Still expect much of the area to experience freezing temperatures early tomorrow morning. Cold high pressure will continue to settle over the region over the next 24 hours. My thinking is, if winds can calm down for just a bit, especially in the more rural areas, temperatures could drop to, or just below, freezing for at least an hour or two. On Sunday, high pressure will be firmly in place across the forecast area.
Upper ridge and accompanying inversion remain in place over the region. Have seen slight cooling aloft in last 24 hours as upper ridge begins to weaken.
In the low levels, surface ridging from the southern Plains into mid-MO Valley this afternoon will build southeast ahead of a cold front which is forecast to advance through the forecast area on Sunday. On Sunday, a westerly low-level wind component within the pre-frontal warm sector will support notably warmer temperatures across the southern half of the area with highs topping out in the lower to mid 60s.
This will keep temperatures from dropping as much as they did last night, although the usual low lying cold spots across the Edwards Plateau and Northwest HIll Country will again drop to near or below freezing. Warmer conditions on Sunday with highs in the mid and even upper 70s.
The cold front has now pushed east of Auburn and Troy, with rain behind the front along and east of a line from Roanoke to eastern portions of the Montgomery metro. As the upper level trough swings through, expect cloud cover to increase especially across the northeast. Cold advection will continue on Sunday with the passage of a strong upper-level trough. Afternoon temperatures should only reach the low 50s in the Northeast with mid to upper 50s farther south.
1205 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Aviation Low pressure near Mackinac Island will move to northern Quebec tonight and a weak area of high pressure will overspread Lower Michigan Sunday. Another low pressure system will produce more scattered mixed rain and snow showers Sunday night.
Next strong cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma terminals toward end of forecast with strong north wind shift and VFR clouds.
Thirty-six out of the 46 counties in our Forecast Areas had at least one spot that reached the freezing mark this morning! With scattered to broken high clouds this afternoon, temperatures had risen into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees as of 3 PM. Lows will be near/slightly cooler across the east and slightly warmer across the west. There will be some spots across the east that didn't reach freezing this morning that will briefly reach freezing Sunday morning, but given how spotty these locales are, we will just issue a Special Weather Statement noting the possibility of a brief freeze.
1134 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A dry warm front will progress across the region overnight, supporting somewhat warmer temperatures in the 20s- 30s, coldest over eastern Kansas. Much warmer and breezy weather expected Sunday, as downslope/compressional southwest low-level flow increases ahead of another cold front approaching from the north.
1015 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Update Low pressure near Mackinac Island will move to northern Quebec tonight and a weak area of high pressure will overspread Lower Michigan Sunday. Another low pressure system will produce more scattered mixed rain and snow showers Sunday night.
with the anticipation that freezing temperatures may hold off until just before sunrise in the far east. /issued 329 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Temperatures range from the low 40s in northwest TN to the mid 50s in northeast MS this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer, mainly due to less expected cloud cover. Winds will back during the day towards the south which should keep the area above freezing tomorrow night. Significantly warmer conditions are expected to begin the work week with sunny skies and southerly winds leading to high temps in the mid 60s to near 70.
A long wave trough initially from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast pivots to the northeast Gulf coast by dawn. ushering in a cold front that sweeps across the area with high pressure building in behind it. mainly in the southern waters will exit to the east during the evening although there may be some showers ahead of and right along an approaching cold front. The front is the main concern with winds increasing into small craft advisory speeds tonight as high pressure builds in behind the front with a tight gradient. The high will relax as it slides east with winds diminishing late Sun night or early Mon.
A robust warmup will occur Sunday ahead of the next cold front, with temperatures likely to overachieve in at least the western part of the forecast area, where readings should at least reach 70.
605 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure will dominate the weather across the region over the next 24 hours with flight categories remaining VFR. Cold high pressure will continue to settle over the region over the next 24 hours. My thinking is, if winds can calm down for just a bit, especially in the more rural areas, temperatures could drop to, or just below, freezing for at least an hour or two. On Sunday, high pressure will be firmly in place across the forecast area.
Much Cooler Airmass Sunday & Sunday Night. Broken waves of pre-frontal convection were approaching our western counties ahead of a strong surface cold front which was sweeping east across the central Florida panhandle. Restrictions to MVFR possible tonight ahead of cold front due to low ceilings of 2.
608 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Early morning temperatures dipped into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with virtually every location with an observation recording freezing temperatures. While the headlines have been expired, we can still expect one more night of freezing temperatures, with some areas falling several degrees below last nights low temperatures. Middle to upper 20s are expected, with the exception of the KC urban areas that should remain warmer in the lower 30s. With the ridge axis moving east, warm air advection ahead of the next cold front will bring much warmer conditions Sunday afternoon with readings closer to normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
A few high clouds will move through northwest flow aloft through Sunday, but VFR conditions will continue with dry air remaining in the low level of the atmosphere. Thirty-six out of the 46 counties in our Forecast Areas had at least one spot that reached the freezing mark this morning! With scattered to broken high clouds this afternoon, temperatures had risen into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees as of 3 PM. Lows will be near/slightly cooler across the east and slightly warmer across the west. There will be some spots across the east that didn't reach freezing this morning that will briefly reach freezing Sunday morning, but given how spotty these locales are, we will just issue a Special Weather Statement noting the possibility of a brief freeze.
with a strong cold front expected to enter northeast Oklahoma just beyond 06Z Sunday night.
Clouds will move across the area as the upper level low moves east.
1127 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Sfc ridging to move ovhd tngt which will result in light to calm winds. This ridge will move east of our airspace during the day Sunday allowing for a return to SSW winds. For this update, did expand the Freeze Warning to cover our entire CWA with freezing temperatures likely covering at least parts of all zones, especially in the more rural and outlying areas. In the meantime, remember to take normal precautions as it relates to the freezing temperatures expected tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 48 34 63 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 46 32 59 / 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 45 32 60 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 42 29 55 / 80 30 0 0 NC.
High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions into Sunday.
High pressure will weaken today over the region as a low pressure system moves into Southern California Sunday night.
1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 After morning lows in the low to mid 20s across the area and the first hard freeze of Autumn across the CWA, temperatures have rebounded into the upper 30s to low 40s early this afternoon. The cooler readings were over the eastern CWA, which remained on the western edge of the large stratus deck today. Good radiational cooling will set up, especially across the eastern CWA, which will likely have lows in the low 20s. Further west, temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected and a south wind will begin to set up overnight with the ridge axis shifting east. Southerly winds will set up across the entire area on Sunday along with rising upper heights as the trough shifts east into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley.
The aforementioned westerly downslope flow will draw warmer air into the region tonight helping to raise H85 temperatures up by roughly 10C. Should see lows only down into the 30s(F) across central Kansas tonight with the lower 40s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.
A cold front continues to approach NE Montana this evening. A cold front and associated rain showers will slide through NE Montana beginning tonight.
Cooler air is heading south from Canada so overnight minimums still look good but raised temperatures during the late evening hours to reflect this trend. Cold front that will move through the area late tonight is currently over southern Alberta.
636 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A relatively nice afternoon is being observed across the local area as light westerly winds have developed and begun advecting warmer air in from the west. expect a cold front to rapidly approach from the north during the late morning hours. where cooler air should begin filtering in before the time of peak heating. Cool air is expected to filter in behind the aforementioned cold front Sunday night.
Short Term Update - Tropical Storm Philippe and the low complex will continue to accelerate northeastwards through the remainder of the night. Drier mid and upper level air is moving in, in association with a mid latitude trough swinging through the southeast and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds will gradually back northeast, north then northwest, and may lull a bit as the lows move east of our area. This will push a healthy cold front through the Key, bringing with it cooler and much drier conditions. A cold front is will push through the Florida Keys Sunday resulting in continued fresh breezes. A significant wind shift from the southeast, to west, to north will occur as a cold front sweeps through the Florida Keys Sunday morning.