Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will produce light northeast wind across the KABI (Abilene) location while light and variable winds will continue elsewhere. /ISSUED 603 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will slowly move through the area today. A weak cold front will slowly move south through the Big Country today. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country, with highs generally in the upper 90s.
628 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL IOWA. WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY SETTLED ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THOUGH A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DROP SEWD OUT OF AL AND GA. CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SOME HEATING OVER SE GA BUT ENOUGH BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WINDS WILL BE SW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO S GA.
1212 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FOG HAS SINCE DIMINISHED BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. INCREASED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT OBS ALREADY HAD LOCATIONS IN THE LOW/UPPER 80S ASIDE FROM THOSE STILL UNDER GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 70S. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD EARLY THIS EVENING.
1037 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
628 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. FEATURING A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEB AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADS EAST TO ROUGHLY FROM KS THROUGH CENTRAL IA TO SW WI BY 12Z WED. THIS TRAJECTORY ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES WILL PROVIDE ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
655 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ASHORE THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
846 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING BEHIND THE FRONT.
H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT FELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW 60S TONIGHT.
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
313 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES.
A STORM SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE HIGHER APPALACHIANS. THINGS CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE MIDSOUTH. TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WISCONSIN TODAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AS WELL. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
230 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Little change in the short term is expected with slightly below normal temperatures once again to be witnessed across the region as cyclonic flow around the SE US upper low maintains the northeasterly low level flow. Weak ridge to remain in place across the forecast area into midweek as SE US low advects into the Atlantic while west coast upper low digs. By midweek the 00z GFS is suggesting a scenario closer to the previous runs of the ECM in which the west coast system maintains its closed low as opposed to filling and being kicked into the Central Plains.
223 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 An upper-level ridge axis currently over eastern Kansas will continue to provide subsidence over the CWA through Saturday. This should be contained to the west of the CWA along the periphery of the ridge axis, with resulting abundant sunshine in place over northwest and central Missouri. Overnight lows outside of this affected area will drop into the low 40s, with areas underneath the cloud cover reaching the mid 40s.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Clouds have been progressing eastward today across the CWA as low- mid level moisture continues to wrap around upper low over southeastern CONUS. Radar and surface observations has picked up isolated light showers/drizzle that is being generated under the axis of the upper trough. Rest of the CWA will eventually turn cloudy tonight, and expect isolated showers or drizzle tonight as the axis of the trough continues to sit over us.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
THAT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND 925MB JET AXIS. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. I DON'T THINK WE'LL COMPLAIN IF TEMPS DO END OF BEING WARMER. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING.
322 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Storm moving into NorCal will bring cooler weather, windy conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TO KICK OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A MUCH WARMER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WEAK/WASHED OUT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK.
LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SW GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO NE FLORIDA BY END OF TAF PERIOD FORCING WINDS ALOFT TO BACK FROM E TO NE BY THIS EVENING.
1205 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER COLORADO. SCATTERED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH ISOLD POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPS CHANGED LITTLE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERAL IN THE LOW 70S. AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
158 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof INVOF AZ/NM border with a mid level trof axis sw of srn Baja and remnants of Marty s of Baja's srn tip. Minor shrtwv trof moving thru the flow today and tonight will result in scattered SHRA/TSRA. Yesterday part of the challenge was identifying shrtwv trof/s moving thru the flow and is today as well. However there does look to be some consensus that a stronger shrtwv trof will move from nrn Mexico into the Trans Pecos Sunday, merging with the weakening shrtwv trof from AZ/NM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SW U. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON WHAT THIS LOW WILL DO ONCE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TX/OK WHERE AS THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING AS FAR EAST AS NM AND BIG BEND AREA OF TX BEFORE STALLING OR DRIFTING SOUTH THEN RETROGRADING BACK WEST.
227 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HUGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID WEEK.
1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IS LIFTING MOIST AIR OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE WILL COME UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAIN IS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
The upper level low remains parked over the region and should remain overhead into Sunday. Model guidance is showing very little in the way of lift to generate light rain overnight, but with the low levels still rather moist, would not be surprised to see some areas of drizzle or even light rain developing after midnight.
116 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN GFS TEMPS AND MORE IN LINE WITH NAM FORECAST HIGH TEMPS. LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SW GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO NE FLORIDA BY END OF TAF PERIOD FORCING WINDS ALOFT TO VEER FROM E TO NE BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.
Strong high pressure was centered over Quebec with a ridge extension all the way to the TX Gulf Coast. Upper low continues to spin over the SE U. The high pressure system will weaken while mid level ridging builds overhead with mid trop low centers off the SE Atlantic Coast and across the SW U.
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 EPIC WEATHER DAY IN SOUTH TEXAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, THANKS TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, BACK CLOSER TO 90F ACROSS A BETTER PART OF THE REGION. SO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT THOUGH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE WESTERN ZONES. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
348 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HUGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
1102 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 WILL ISSUES A QUICK UPDATE TO BACK OFF TIMING OF INCOMING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER OREGON THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
300 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELINQUISH CONTROL ON SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ELONGATED MID/UPPER LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE (AIDED BY HURRICANE JOAQUIN) INTO THE CAROLIN'S AND AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW INTO OUR AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST.
1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
REMAINS DRY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA PUSHING THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY ELY WINDS WILL CONT WITH THE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH AND DEEP LOW OVER THE SERN STATES CONTS. CLSD LOW OVER THE SERN STATES SLOWLY MEANDERS EWRD THRU THE SHRT TERM WHILE GNRL HIRES NORTH OF THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE NE AND THE GREAT LAKES.
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER GYRE. AND THE OTHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC.
323 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A strong upper trough remained in place across the western half of the CONUS today with several notable short waves rotating through the main long wave system. Each of these pieces of localized energy will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity as they move across the high plains through tonight. This is mainly due to a very dry and persistently reinforced airmass in the low to mid levels across northeast Kansas.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. FLOW ALONG ISENT SURFACE TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE CENTROID JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY FILLS AND SAGS SWD AND SC COASTAL LOW/ASSOCD WITH SWRN GA MID LVL VORTEX WEAKENS AS CAT 4 JOAQUIN ACCELERATES NEWD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD UPSTREAM BEFORE A BROAD UPPER TROF GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROF.
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE IL STRATUS ADVANCING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN WRN CONUS TROUGH AND SERN GULF COAST CLOSED LOW KEEPING IA WEATHER UNEVENTFUL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CWA WITH WEAK RIDGE STAGNANT ACROSS MID WEST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
1132 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS PROVIDING A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. AS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS JACKSONVILLE. THUS THE HIGHER POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MEANDERING CYCLONE OVER THE DENVER AREA. EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS A BRIEF RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BUILDS OVERHEAD.
DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE RIDGES INTO SUNDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH. EAST WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN A CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDSOUTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S.
Our current forecasts for winds are towards the higher end of guidance and some of the observed winds today may peak just shy of advisory criteria and current forecasts. JW 18Z TAFS: A large closed low over Oregon will continue to drop south away from the region into Sunday.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND WILL STILL BE THE CASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES IN PLACE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THUS PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDS IN. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED NIGHTTIME LOWS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AND WARMER ALONG POINTS EAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE CWA.
208 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 The long time influence of high pressure has lost ground to the upper low over the southeastern US, and clouds and low level moisture are edging into Central Illinois throughout today. Illinois remains in the col between the weakening southeast upper low and the northern stream for a few more days at mid-levels.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER OUTSIDE. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH AND TEMPS RATHER LOW.
415 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD IN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN GFS TEMPS AND MORE IN LINE WITH NAM FORECAST HIGH TEMPS. LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SW GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO NE FLORIDA BY END OF TAF PERIOD FORCING WINDS ALOFT TO BACK FROM E TO NE BY THIS EVENING.
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTATION WILL. THIS WARMER AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD.
530 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
412 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
222 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A LARGE TROUGH WAS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
210 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS VERY GRADUALLY EASTWARD. WRAPPING AROUND TOPSIDE OF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT SOME BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LOW WRAPAROUND FROM THE EAST WILL SCATTER OUT SO WILL LIKELY SEE MORE CUMULUS THAN STRATOCU OVER EASTERN CWA. EVOLVING PATTERN INCLUDING DEEP LOW OVER DESERT SW COMBINED WITH UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WILL LOCK OUR SECTION OF COUNTRY IN UPPER RIDGE.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Clouds have been progressing westward today across the CWA as low- mid level moisture continues to wrap around upper low over southeastern CONUS. Radar and surface observations has picked up isolated light showers/drizzle that is being generated under the axis of the upper trough. Rest of the CWA will eventually turn cloudy tonight, and expect isolated showers or drizzle tonight as the axis of the trough continues to sit over us.
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE RIDGES THROUGH TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSLOPE LEE OFF THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGES WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL IN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.