Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The weather during the bulk of the short term period will be dominated by a large area of high pressure. This ridge will be situated over the region through late Sunday night before it finally begins to break down as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Cloud cover will be sparse through late Sunday, before finally increasing in coverage late Sunday night ahead of the trough.
Dewpoints have dropped slightly this afternoon into the lower to mid 50s in most places. Most guidance does forecast the ridging over the area to weaken somewhat on Sunday as a front pushes east into the western Great Lakes area and Missouri. Overall, temperatures look to be just a degree or two cooler than today as a result.
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Strong low pressure system sits over the region this afternoon. As the low slowly drifts eastward, expect chances for showers and isolated storms to end from west to east this evening. Sunday will be dry with clearing skies as high pressure begins to build over the area.
Forecast is on track for a nice day across southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon under partly cloud skies with temperatures running a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Winds will be lighter than yesterday as high pressure builds over the area.
Temperatures this afternoon are primarily in the 90s, with a few cooler locations across the Hill Country and where rain cooled air and increased cloud cover has kept temperatures tempered.
Isolated showers and storms are possible this morning across portions of southeast Missouri, then an upper level ridge should push far enough west to give us dry conditions this afternoon into tonight. Models continue to push a cold front toward our region on Sunday.
Today Through Sunday Night The current synoptic setup can be characterized as upper level ridging anchored firmly in place across the southeastern CONUS, meanwhile to the west, a deepening trough is traversing the northern half of the Rockies. Highs on Saturday will top out in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. South/southwest winds may become gusty this afternoon with winds approaching 20 to 25 knots across the higher elevations of the Ozarks. Sunday, upper ridging to our east relaxes a bit as the trough ejects into the Northern Plains.
325 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Quiet weather continues in the short-term forecast period as weak upper ridging and weakening surface ridging persist across the region.
Heavy rainfall during this period is expected, as remnants mix with another approaching cold front. The idea is that with High pressure off the se coast of the US, this will hold the movement of today's shower activity in the area. This High will also slow the progression of the frontal system on Sunday, leading to the chance for flash flooding.
Meanwhile, dynamics aloft will be relatively favorable with an increasingly difluent southwest flow and a strong +100kt jet core lifting northeast across the high plains with a right entrance region setting up generally across western Kansas, virtually straddling the stalled frontal boundary. Cooler air will surge into western Kansas early Sunday morning behind a secondary and much stronger cold front. High pressure builds into the area Sunday as the aforementioned cold front continues to sag south of the area.
Finally starting to see a few spotty showers rotating around the upper low across northwest SD.
A weak mid level short wave rounding the base of the high pressure system centered over the SE US, will continue moving west across S TX tonight. The short wave is progged to weaken further with the high pressure becoming more dominant by Sunday.
314 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 As of early afternoon, distinct boundary near the Highway 60 corridor in southwest MN/northwest IA, with line of showers and embedded storms largely confined to the boundary.
On a positive note, the amount of moisture and potential development of fog may reduce the freeze concerns except in the high mountain valleys.
High pressure will continue to dominate through all levels of the atmosphere.
Additionally, there is a cold front coming through later tonight which will result in a wind shift becoming more northerly Sunday morning. Another break in the precipitation is then anticipated followed by redevelopment of more showers and tstms later this afternoon and evening as the southern end of an upper level trof of low pressure heads across the region late today and tonight. This feature, plus a leeside surface trof located over eastern CO and eastern NM acting as a low level focusing feature, plenty of moisture, an unstable atmosphere, and sufficient shear warrants the possibility that some storms may become strong to severe, with wind gusts to around 60 mph to 65 mph and hail up to the size of quarters to perhaps half dollars the primary hazards.
102 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over ND with trof extending southwest into the Desert SW. Upper ridge building into the Pac NW.
high temperatures will be cooler today with mid 70s to around 80 in far eastern Colorado and low to mid 80s east of the CO/KS border thanks to some cooler air that moved in behind a cold frontal passage early this morning. Moisture in the 850-500mb column increases from mid evening through the overnight hours from south to north and from an approaching upper level trough advancing toward the area from the west. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to around 50 in far eastern Colorado to the low and mid 50s east of the CO/KS border. dry weather is expected behind Saturday nights upper trough passage. Lots of sunshine expected during the day with highs in the low to upper 70s.
As the upper low and its trough axis lifts northeast over northwest MN this evening, this may be strong enough to generate at least some stronger storms for a time late afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, drier air working over western area now, clearing the sky and driving temperatures into the lower 80s. Otherwise clouds may work back into the region late tonight as core of the upper low moves into the state Sunday. Models develop some light rain over the southeast portion of the cwa as the trough/FGEN forcing moves through that region. Cooler air to work over the area Sunday afternoon, and with the expected clouds cover, temperatures should struggle to warm through the upper 60s.
200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Showers move out today as a ridge builds over the northern Rockies.
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong ridge across the ern half of the U. The trough moves east into the northern and central plains tonight and into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. Will go with a drier solution for this forecast period for pops as there has been scattered stuff going on all day and hints of some of the models is that the area gets split as the cold front goes through.
Confidence is rather low due to scarce moisture in the lower levels (dew points in the 30s and 40s) in the post fropa environment and spread among the ensembles. Went with a broadbrushed approach to PoP with the highest concentrations in the southern panhandle (fgen band) and SW (elevated convection). Flow aloft will transition to northwesterly as the trough axis bisects the forecast area. Am a little concerned about isolated showers invof the upper trough and elevated instability. Nudged min temps down a degree or so, where much of the CWA drops to 50 or cooler. The state sits on the periphery of a deep upper trough and Hudson Bay low.
High pressure continues to be in place across the area today. Dewpoints look to drop into the lower to mid 50s late this afternoon with mixing. The warm and dry pattern will continue Sunday as high pressure remains anchored aloft.
105 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over ND with trof extending southwest into the Desert SW. Upper ridge building into the Pac NW.
1117 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States, with deep, moist, and unstable easterly flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. We lowered the high temperatures by a degree or two based on increased cloud cover. A high pressure cell over the southeastern United States will maintain strong northeast to east breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, from this afternoon through Sunday night.
The upper pattern today features strengthened ridging across the southeast CONUS, generally centered across central AL/GA, all while troughing prevails out west. At the surface, high pressure centered just off the Carolina coastline extended westward into the TN valley region. This deep ridging will continue to yield dry conditions for the vast majority of the region, with a very slight chance of some mountain top shra not to be ruled out this afternoon. As for Sunday, pretty much a carbon copy of today albeit with a slight westward shift of the upper ridge center. The main theme continues to be above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions due to the persistent ridge that is in place. Sunday night the ridge shifts east and briefly becomes suppressed as a weak front approaches.
Increased cloud covered has allowed for slightly cooler temperatures in this area so hourly temperatures were modified to reflect this.
759 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A jet entrance region and approaching s/wv trough will continue to promote widespread precip across the SE half of the TX Panhandle through the overnight hours with the back edge of the precip slowly shifting east with time. A cold front will push through the Panhandles early Sunday morning switching the winds around to the north. An upper level short wave trough in the broad southwest flow aloft will approach the Panhandles from New Mexico which will help to touch off showers and thunderstorms. This area is closest to the ejecting short wave trough and closest to the deepest moisture and this area has had the heaviest rain over the last couple of days.
528 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over ND with trof extending southwest into the Desert SW. Upper ridge building into the Pac NW.
744 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a dry airmass holding over the northern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula this evening under a strong ridge of high pressure.
821 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong ridge across the ern half of the U. The trough moves east into the northern and central plains tonight and into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. Will go with a drier solution for this forecast period for pops as there has been scattered stuff going on all day and hints of some of the models is that the area gets split as the cold front goes through.
729 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure will bring generally fair weather and warm temperatures to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend.
/issued 344 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ The majority of convection this afternoon has been focused across lower acadiana where a plume of deeper layer moisture is wrapping around a westward building upper ridge. The aforementioned upper ridge is progged to build across the area overnight into early Sunday accompanied by drier mid level air. While this is expected to effectively cap convection across south central Louisiana, scattered convection is expected to develop around the western periphery of the ridge (in the higher moisture environment) during the afternoon hours.
Don't be fooled by the clear skies and warmer temperatures today, as the next front will arrive tomorrow, bringing cool and wet weather back to our area once again.
447 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A strong ridge will continue to dominate the southeastern United states bringing drier and above normal temperatures back into the region to start off the new week.
Current temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with dew points down to the mid to upper 50s. Mostly clear skies continue overnight with light south to southeast winds, where dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s. With increasing surface moisture advection expected overnight, low temperatures were slightly raised into the low to mid 60s to match ongoing trends. Most guidance does forecast the ridging over the area to weaken somewhat on Sunday as a front pushes east into the western Great Lakes area and Missouri. Overall, temperatures look to be just a degree or two cooler than today as a result.
Hence the cooler, moister air looks like it will be late to arrive this evening. For Sunday, drier and warmer air aloft with subsidence will move in early. Warming at the surface will lag the air aloft, but it should recover to be at least as warm as it is today, with warmer highs likely over the mountains.
/Issued 325 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ Quiet weather continues in the short-term forecast period as weak upper ridging and weakening surface ridging persist across the region.
918 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 No major updates this evening with partially cloudy skies briefly becoming mostly overcast across many interior counties around and shortly after sunrise as the lower levels saturate up.
356 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Gusty winds will decrease this evening as we transition to weaker northwest flow tonight once the upper level trough axis crosses the Divide. However, prolong freezing temperatures will still blanket northwestern Colorado valleys under this cold airmass, mainly across the Yampa River valley and dropping as far south as Meeker. Brief periods of sub-freezing temperatures are possible for valleys across southwestern Colorado, likely impacting the cities of Cortez and Durango. However, the areal coverage and timing of freezing temperatures were too spotty to warrant a Freeze Warning in these zones. The approaching transitory ridge will advect warm air across the CWA aloft first, forming a mid-level inversion over night. By Sunday night, winds will shift back to the southwest as the next PacNW trough digs into the Great Basin.
524 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Gusty winds will decrease this evening as we transition to weaker northwest flow tonight once the upper level trough axis crosses the Divide. However, prolong freezing temperatures will still blanket northwestern Colorado valleys under this cold airmass, mainly across the Yampa River valley and dropping as far south as Meeker. Brief periods of sub-freezing temperatures are possible for valleys across southwestern Colorado, likely impacting the cities of Cortez and Durango. However, the areal coverage and timing of freezing temperatures were too spotty to warrant a Freeze Warning in these zones. The approaching transitory ridge will advect warm air across the CWA aloft first, forming a mid-level inversion over night. By Sunday night, winds will shift back to the southwest as the next PacNW trough digs into the Great Basin.
939 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 High pressure will bring generally fair weather and warm temperatures to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend.
High pressure to the north northeast will weaken through the night. Low temperatures Tonight will range from the low to mid 60s inland to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Morning temperatures Sunday will be several degrees warmer than this morning and lows will continue to be warmer than normal. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Sunday: With a big ridge of high pressure holding firm over the Southeastern US, dry weather continues to persist over our area. With the area of increased moisture moving around the ridge and into our western counties/parishes, temperatures will fall into the low 70s in that part of the CWA. Sunday will be much like today with high pressure in place.
Strong low pressure system sits over the region this afternoon. As the low slowly drifts eastward, expect chances for showers and isolated storms to end from west to east this evening. Sunday will be dry with clearing skies as high pressure begins to build over the area.
541 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 As of early afternoon, distinct boundary near the Highway 60 corridor in southwest MN/northwest IA, with line of showers and embedded storms largely confined to the boundary.
A cold front will push through the Panhandles early Sunday morning switching the winds around to the north. An upper level short wave trough in the broad southwest flow aloft will approach the Panhandles from New Mexico which will help to touch off showers and thunderstorms. This area is closest to the ejecting short wave trough and closest to the deepest moisture and this area has had the heaviest rain over the last couple of days.
Precipitation an clouds will start clearing out as upper trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains during the day.
High pressure is stacked across Ga and the Carolinas with ridging extending westward across the mid state. By late Sunday night, the upper high becomes suppressed to our south. Westerlies will then allow a cold front to approach from the northwest.
Extensive region of showers and thunderstorms in western and central Oklahoma oriented along the low level jet has begun to move into parts of eastern Oklahoma over the past hour or so. Additional development is expected during the early afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, likely near and south of Interstate 44. The overall convective potential will sag southward tonight, with cooler and drier air briefly moving in behind the front.
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
By afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, which is expected to be just north of the I-44 corridor, for a few strong to severe storms to be possible.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the areas weather with mostly clear skies tonight. Otherwise minor changes were done to sky and temps that are forecast to fall into the 50s with 40s in the higher elevations tonight. Ridging will bring stable weather through tonight. A cold front sweeps across the region tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing a good chance of rain showers, especially over the mountains.
Meanwhile, a progressive upper level trough was over the high plains, with an associated surface cold front over the middle of the CONUS. The trough will move east and suppress the upper high to the Gulf Coast by Monday, allowing the cold front to pass southeast through KY on Monday. Increasing low level winds and warm air advection will hold temperatures up tonight over ridges and open terrain.
335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 One upper trough crosses the Rockies onto the plains today as the next one moves ashore the WA/OR coast.
A ridge will move over the area Sunday, moving off to the east Monday. This will keep it dry with a mostly sunny sky and highs in the low 70s Sunday and mid-70s Monday.
Went a couple of degrees above guidance again due to the intensifying drought, nearly full sunshine from the downward vertical motion underneath the ridge, and relatively low dew points in the boundary layer. Projected soundings really show this dry boundary layer with little to no afternoon CAPE, as well as a strong inversion in the 800-700 mb layer associated with the thermal ridge. The H5 ridge will finally begin to flatten a bit Sunday night as the aforementioned Plains and Rockies trough opens up and ejects toward the Great Lakes sending a weakening cold front through the OH Valley and toward the TN Valley. The front will still be to our NW Sunday night, and with the lingering influence of the ridge, maintained a dry forecast.
High pressure centered to the east over GA will get moved more to the east as a weak front approaches from the northwest.
The line of showers / storms will eventually spread into far NW AR by Sun afternoon w/ trailing cold front / outflow continuing storm chances further south later Sunday into Sunday evening.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
Temperatures under the upper trough will only top out near 70. Upper ridging will build in on Monday pushing temps back up into the upper 70s.
Temperatures remain cooler on Sunday with highs only rising into the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will begin a warming trend on Monday with highs rising into the low 80s for most locations.
Finally starting to see a few spotty showers rotating around the upper low across northwest SD. There will be an upper level low pressure area/trough over the southwest U. with a weak Pacific trough in the northern stream heading towards our region.
An upper ridge moves over the region on Monday and increase in solar will help afternoon highs climb into the 70s as dry weather prevails.
424 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
In the upper levels a ridge is centered over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure is over the Southeast with easterly low level flow over the region.
High temperatures today will be in the mid/upper 80s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s well inland to the low 70s coast.
455 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Aviation section updated A cold front will move through central Indiana starting this evening and through tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week before increasing to the 80s again by the end of the week.
S/WV ridge moves into the region tonight with a southwesterly low level return flow expanding east across western and central ND. Expect warmer overnight temperatures compared to this morning's observations. We remain dry through most of Monday night in the wake of the S/WV ridge and ahead of an upper level jet approaching from the northwest.
Satellite shows upper low moving east into the western Dakotas as the western Trough moves east over Wyoming to New Mexico. The surface frontal boundary extended from northeast Nebraska to low pressure over southeast Colorado at 07Z. The trough is expected to continue to move east across the Plains today with the frontal boundary moving through the area by late afternoon. Will continue with the highest precipitation chances across northeast and east central Kansas through the morning hours then end from northwest to southeast through the afternoon.
Quiet weather is expected for Sunday, with zonal flow and subtle ridge building in behind the departing wave. At the beginning of the period, a broad trough spans across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, placing the region under weak northwesterly flow. A closed low spins near Baja California, where it remains nearly stationary to start.
Quiet weather will continue through the day Sunday as high pressure surface and aloft remains in control.
132 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong ridge across the ern half of the U. The trough moves east into the northern and central plains tonight and into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. Will go with a drier solution for this forecast period for pops as there has been scattered stuff going on all day and hints of some of the models is that the area gets split as the cold front goes through. a round of showers with the upper low looks more likely for the central and east. 85H temperatures will lower back into the 2-6 C range on Monday ensuring a cooler more seasonable day compared to our recent stretch of unseasonable warmth.
Mid-level ridge axis will remain centered over the southeast, while the ArkLaMiss will remain to the west. As a trough digs through the Great Lakes, this will drag a front towards our area. Due to broad scale ridging & subsidence, this will help the front sag slowly towards the area & gradually wash out.