Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
459 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Drier air moves in on Sunday with more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
A weak low pressure system aloft was centered early this morning near the southern California coast. Meanwhile, high pressure aloft was centered east of this forecast area over central Texas.
The upper low continues to move to the W-NW into the Central Gulf tonight and Sunday as surface Bermuda high pressure extended from the Western Atlantic across the Central FL Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf.
There is a very weak boundary left over from overnight storms north of the Highway 60 corridor. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s for most location with heat index values approaching 100 for some locations. Will mention the chance again for isolated to widely scattered showers or storms across the area on Sunday but most areas will remain dry and very warm with high temps back in the lower 90s.
141 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper ridge axis is moving over the northern plains, while a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Thermal ridge axis over the CWA today will result in very warm temperatures in the 90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80s.
347 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough passing through Lower Michigan will keep a chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast during the morning. This will be mainly supported by a corridor of weak DCVA from south to north over the area downstream of the upper level trough axis. The passage of the upper level trough axis today will mark the beginning of a larger scale pattern shift toward a more zonal configuration to start the week.
Isolated to widely scattered PoPs are expected within deeper moisture plume across the NW/W Sun on the western periphery of the ridge. The highest precip chances still appear to arrive mid week with an unseasonably stout cold front. The ECMWF is far more aggressive since it depicts a deeper trough impacting the upper midwest.
Look for one more day of minor warming this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure continues to build into our region.
Main story for today will be the increasing heat as upper level ridging moves over the Dakotas. Used the HRRR for winds over north central SD this afternoon which highlights ridges much better.
103 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Slightly cooler and drier air moving into the area today.
Light onshore flow caused by weak systems passing to the north will provide some morning clouds and slightly cooler temperatures through Sunday.
622 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will stall over the area today before moving offshore on Sunday.
338 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A weak cold front will move into the Piedmont this morning and will push slowly east across the Coastal Plain this afternoon before sagging just south of the area tonight and Sunday.
Anomalously high 925 temps of greater than 26C will exist in the Lower MS Valley as the mid level ridge continues to build over the region. Moist surface conditions, due in part to the amount of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks, will make it harder for dewpoints to mix down as we warm up to the low to mid 90's this afternoon. At the beginning of the period, mid/upper level ridge will remain anchored over the area while TUTT continues its westward trek across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and storms will be exiting the southeastern ridge counties this evening.
An upper level high was centered across New Mexico, which has allowed 850-700mb temperatures to warm up quite a bit, with +16C at 700mb at KABQ at 19/0000 UTC. A surface leeside trough will become established by late afternoon, and convergence will setup in its traditional axis from Baca County through east-central Colorado.
239 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper trough Saturday possibly brings a shower to northern areas.
Ridging then sets up and will be dominant through the day Saturday. The remainder of the period will be dry as high pressure settles in tonight and Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s in west central Minnesota, to the lower 90s west of the Missouri River. The models continue to show a cold frontal boundary sinking south across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with winds turning northeast.
343 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper ridge centered over southwest Texas with an upper trough over California. The ridging over Texas may not be strong enough to completely suppress convection across our forecast area today. Some of the high-res guidance shows convective signals focused on the southern Rolling Plains.
A strong jet streak extends northeast just downstream of this trough, with enhanced vertical motion in the right entrance region. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s across most of the CWA with afternoon heat indices between 100-105F in many areas.
436 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Drier air moves in on Sunday with more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
423 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure generally ruling across the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley from west to east. Aloft, a short wave trough was moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with some mid and high level clouds moving towards the central part of the Commonwealth. This short wave trough will continue eastward today, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms to the I-64 corridor. An upper level ridge will build in across the area through the rest of the period, bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, after a night of lows similar to tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s.
351 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Weak low pressure associated with a disturbance aloft will drop across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
330 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper ridge axis is moving over the northern plains, while a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Thermal ridge axis over the CWA today will result in very warm temperatures in the 90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80s.
434 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper ridge centered over TX stretches across the southern tier of states as a low sits along the CA coast. This low will spin in place for a few days before lifting northeast over the top of the ridge flattening it. As the trough passes off the ridge will rebuild behind it. Temperatures will remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s for the next few days but models are hinting at a front bridging down into the area late in the week. Thunderstorms will continue today especially over the higher elevations west of the Pecos river.
Most of the showers and storms will be across ne Fl into coastal areas of se Ga where the highest moisture exists.
This surface feature is enhanced by the northwestern quadrant of a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT). By Sunday, the low-level flow will shift around to the east, with some moistening of the deep layer.
This has allowed for temperatures to drop into the mid/upper 70s for rural areas, but the Houston urban heat island is in full force with temperatures still in the low 80s. Upper level analysis at 00z shows a fairly flat ridge across Texas and the northern Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough was moving across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The coming work week may actually be more wet than dry, but that will largely hinge upon upper level ridging or the lack there of.
320 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure across the region to allow for hot temperatures today with highs forecast to climb into the mid 90s.
625 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
137 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will pass east of the area tonight. An upper trough will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
340 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Late night sfc analysis shows the area mainly under the influence of high pressure centered over the nwrn Gulf. All signs point to today being another hot and mostly dry day across the forecast area, thanks to lingering ridging in place mainly to our west. Still our resident ridging aloft should keep somewhat of a limit on convective development.
41 Extended periods start off with ridging at the surface and aloft building into the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Looking for any window for increasing moisture that might bring a chance of rain to the CWA but the stubborn 500mb Ridge is holding tight. Impressive looking 25H low over the S Florida and SE Gulf will be very slow in moving west against an equally strong ridge.
Temperatures will trend slightly cooler (down a couple degrees), but will remain near normal.
In addition to the wrap-around moisture, another shorwave rounding the base of the overall troughing pattern will slide across the U. Temperatures will be kept a bit warmer over the east where cloud cover is likely to linger through much of the night. Saturday: The main trough axis will continue to shift eastward through the day Saturday allowing for a steady warming trend across the area. This will especially be true across the west half under the approaching ridge. The east half, still remain under the influence of the departing trough, will see some isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop along lake breeze boundaries.
We finally get a broad, low amplitude ridge building over the Southern Plains through early this upcoming week before the near zonal flow pattern is interrupted by a northern stream wave dropping down into the plains. The attendant cold front will approach by midweek bringing with it an increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier northwest flow pattern looks to round out the week.
Downstream this feature is forcing a resulting short wave ridge across the northern plains. Subsidence associated with the ridge will set up a warm thermal profile across western North Dakota today. A dry cold front will enter the northwest by late morning reaching the central by this evening. This is supported by the warmer HRRR as well as the GEFS temperature plumes which place a preponderance of runs with highs in the mid 90s central.
420 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will stall over the area today before moving offshore on Sunday.
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A broad area of high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley shifts eastward today resulting in mainly sunny skies and southwesterly flow developing at low levels. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with highs approaching 80. A cold front will track across the Upper Midwest tonight kicking off showers and thunderstorms across northern Minnesota, after midnight for north- central and northeast MN. The extended week ahead showcases an initial chance for additional precipitation before turning cooler and drier for much of the work week. A cold front associated with the precipitation will mainly impact the southern periphery of the forecast region with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Weak upper level trough pushing southeastward through the area this afternoon, allowing drier air to spread southward.
353 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure generally ruling across the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley from west to east. Aloft, a short wave trough was moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with some mid and high level clouds moving towards the central part of the Commonwealth. This short wave trough will continue eastward today, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms to the I-64 corridor. An upper level ridge will build in across the area through the rest of the period, bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, after a night of lows similar to tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s.
There will also likely be a weak surface convergence zone over the far eastern plains associated with the lee trough, and perhaps just enough moisture convergence along this line to pop a couple late afternoon storms as well. Convection will fire off again over the high terrain with a slight chance over the Palmer Divide and far eastern plains. Temperatures will be similar to slightly cooler than today's readings as more cloud cover will be moving in.
Therefore ground fog development is possible between now and sunrise especially in the low lying areas.
Northward advancement of monsoon moisture becoming more evident in forecast soundings and 700mb flow as a trough pattern sets up along the CA coast.
535 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
Weak surface convergence/trough evident in LAPS mass and pressure fields this morning. This activity should diminish quickly from the west into the afternoon as the mid/upper level trough axis moves to the east. The northern limb of a weak and low amplitude ridge will build in from the southwest during the afternoon and evening hours, suppressing convection. The ridge will build back in during the day on Sunday and Sunday night, limiting any potential for convection overnight.
High pressure was over the Dakotas with a light northwest surface winds.
A quick moving cold front will move through the North Bay before midnight and then push southward through early Wednesday morning.
A potent mid level trough is moving across west Texas while a warm front lifts north toward the Mid-South. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are developing north of the warm front in an area of highly diffluent flow aloft. Also as the warm front pushes north visibilities are deteriorating across much of the Mid-South. The assoicated cold front will move across the lower Mississippi Valley later tonight. The mid level trough will slowly exit the region in the afternoon while low level cyclonic flow continues.
1033 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Main forecast concern will be the approach of the first arctic cold front of the season by late Wednesday.
1141 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 For the 18Z TAFs, a weak cold front which has moved across KGUY and KDHT will continue southward across KAMA by mid to late this afternoon. Surface winds will quickly turn around to the west-southwest towards sunrise Wednesday as a sfc trof of low pressure begins to organize over ern CO and ern NM. Winds will slowly turn from southwesterly to northerly with a cold front passage through the area.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the forecast area tonight. Temperatures tonight and Wednesday will remain some 7 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s with highs on Wednesday again climbing into the upper 70s along the coast, and around 80 to the lower 80s inland.
1112 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning showing a large upper low centered over central Canada with low amplitude trof across the northern tier states. cold air advection was spilling into the lower 48 with the leading edge of the front roughly from the upper midwest to the NE panhandle.
Have lowered highs for tomorrow several degrees as southerly flow looks slow to return and may still not efficiently warm conditions without significantly warmer temperatures to the south.
Mid- level ridging over the Intermountain West will keep conditions dry across the Northland except for small chances of lake effect snow along the Gogebic Range of northern Iron county. More clouds would keep temperatures a bit warmer, which is the direction I'm leaning. A deepening mid-level trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest tonight.
239 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 (Tonight and Wednesday) Light showers will linger across the area through the rest of the afternoon hours, then end over northeast sections by mid evening as the upper low lifts northeast of the area. Temperatures will be cooler tonight, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Southwest winds and warmer temperatures can be expected on Wednesday as a lee trough develops in advance of an upper level trough diving south across the Intermountain West.
Satellite imagery this afternoon showing an upper level trough/closed low moving east northeast through the southern Plains this afternoon. High pressure building southeast across the northern and central Plains behind a front that pushed through western Kansas earlier this morning. Winds should diminish this evening as high pressure builds in. We should still see highs ranging from the mid 50s over central Kansas to the low/mid 60s along the Colorado border.
Ridging across the southeast will weaken tonight as an upper level low across TX/NM lifts northward into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Cold front pushing now just east of the fcst area as wind push has gone thru Bemidji. Also, an upper ridge exists across the western US, and just off the BC coast an upper level low dives south. This upper low will head towards the 4-corners region over the next couple of days. this band has wobbled north and south in the models from HWY 2 to I-94, so still plenty of uncertainty where the highest snows will be.
Visibilities across the region have improved enough to let the dense fog advisory expire at 9 AM, and expect any lingering pockets of dense fog to burn off within the next hour or so, with mostly sunny warm and muggy conditions expected the remainder of the day as high pressure surface and aloft remains in control. Similar to yesterday temperatures will run some 7 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations, and upper 70s to around 80 along the immediate coast. Tranquil boating conditions will continue across the coastal waters the remainder of today as high pressure surface and aloft remains in control with light northeast to east winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
109 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 Weak high pressure over the region today will move south tonight. Low pressure will track eastward across the region Wednesday bringing widespread showers, and possibly thunderstorms.
East-northeasterly winds to the north of the track of the low will support weak low- level cold advection amid cloud coverage surrounding the cyclone. Furthermore, turbulent mixing resulting from the gradient flow north of the low should mute nocturnal boundary- layer decoupling tonight, thus limiting prospects for another night of fog/low-stratus formation.
1057 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Upper ridging persists with moisture spilling over the ridge bringing some upper clouds. Highs will move in the lower 50s with dry conditions through tomorrow.
Scattered showers/sprinkles have developed across north AL and north GA and will continue for the rest of this afternoon and evening as the main system continues to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley. Models agree on keeping most of the precipitation across extreme north GA tonight, and then as the cold front and associated short waves moves into the Tennessee Valley, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front, moving into western GA Wednesday morning and across the rest of the CWA Wednesday afternoon.
200 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this afternoon reveals a massive deep layer anticyclone centered over Cuba, but covering much of the Gulf basin, Florida Peninsula, and Bahamas as well.
The low and associated rainfall will continue eastward on Wednesday drawing some slightly cooler air into the mid-state by the afternoon hours.
116 PM PST Tue Dec 19 2017 A cold front will move through the region Wednesday with a chance for precipitation, in the form of snow, across the Sierra Nevada.
434 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 Low pressure tracking eastward will move into the forecast area Wednesday bringing widespread showers, and possibly thunderstorms.
A dry cold front will move through central Indiana late this afternoon and evening. The result will be dry and cooler weather for midweek. This should drop southeast with a cold front, that will be dropping southeast across central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Would not rule out a couple of showers extreme southern sections Wednesday as the trough moves over the Tennessee Valley.
1138 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 Cold front currently working through the forecast area. Temps aloft will tumble behind the front, leading to cooler highs than yesterday. Wednesday looks to be breezy as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching trough.
1040 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is crossing the northern Plains into the Great Lakes area. Weak ridging is building over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front has just about made it all the way through the CWA to near the Nebraska border. This will bring warmer air back into northeast Wyoming into southwest and south central South Dakota where highs will reach into the 40s.
Places that have held onto temperatures in the low 30s like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls, snowfall rates up to an inch per hour will be possible this afternoon through the evening. Eventually, the winds aloft should provide enough mixing to raise the stratus deck, but that may not occur until the cold front arrives and scrubs out the inversion.
With dry airmass in place and high pressure ridge moving into far NW MN it should lead to a cold night with lows in the single digits below zero. Impact day is Wednesday as low pressure moves from the Pac NW into the northern Plains in the afternoon. Prior to this period, generally quiet weather will prevail with the main if not only feature swinging through Fri in the form of a cold front with minimal QPF.
Compact upper level trough will move sewd across the forecast area today through early Wednesday. This will gradually push a cold front across the region later today and tonight. Rain this morning should taper off for several hours then increase again later this afternoon into evening as cold front moves through the area.
350 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 An upper trough will exit WI Wed morning.
Low temperatures will be a little cooler than this morning, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A trailing surface cold front will approach the region late in the afternoon on Wednesday.
358 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 Upper low center was passing overhead this afternoon, with modest instability and attempt by the cumulus field to build mainly across the Rolling Plains. A weak surface cold front may dip southward into the area overnight.
Northeast winds down the Highway 95 corridor in the Idaho Panhandle have busted the forecast for CDA. Eventually, the winds aloft should provide enough mixing to raise the stratus deck, but that may not occur until the cold front arrives and scrubs out the inversion.
Compact upper level trough will move sewd across the forecast area today through early Wednesday. This will gradually push a cold front across the region later today and tonight.
254 PM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Zonal flow aloft/subtle ridging will persist through Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front has stalled across the front range and will return as a warm front tonight and dissipate.
Our new forecast has significantly reduced precipitation Nearly zonal flow continues across the forecast area with a strong closed low over the Pacific Northwest.
The fog will linger across the southern and eastern portions of deep south TX Wed morning before the weak cold front brings drier air into the middle and lower RGV Wed afternoon.