Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Snow chances improve late this week as a surge of colder air and an area of low pressure moves across the region. Broad forcing for ascent won't have much moisture to work with over the Northland tonight and early Monday morning and a little freezing drizzle or light snow is possible. Low stratus over northwest Wisconsin and portions of northeast Minnesota will likely remain in place ahead of the trough. Chinook winds aloft will advance into the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and should be able to scour out the clouds and provide slightly warmer temps.
Otherwise, slightly warmer weather is expect for tomorrow with highs in the lower 40s.
Any snowfall accumulations are expected to be less than a half of an inch with possibly an inch across the higher terrain of the northern Adirondacks.
High pressure is shifting northeast over the Mid-Atlantic and an inverted coastal trough will lift north today. Cloud cover will steadily build throughout the day ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the west. The low will track through southeast GA overnight and push offshore near sunrise tomorrow.
942 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Upper low, currently over north Texas, continues to shift eastward this evening. Still the potential for very light snow to develop across far southeast Oklahoma overnight as upper low passes just to the south.
Therefore, expect a hard freeze tonight for road ways and bridges becoming slippery and icy. Remnant upper level low pressure, from the current winter storm, will eject westward over southeast New Mexico and pivot over Southern Plains by Tuesday. Tuesday morning clouds associated with the aforementioned trough should clear allowing for strong radiational cooling to keep low temps in the 20s to teens across the area.
Where clouds are slightly thinner, temps have dropped into the lower 20s, elsewhere under the clouds temperature were in the mid-upper 20s. For tonight, high pressure is forecast to build into the region and we should see a bit more clearing from north to south as the night wears on. Lows tonight should drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s.
The flow aloft is still split across the central United States with a weak ridge building in from the west and an upper-level low moving eastward through the southern Great Plains over the first half of the work week.
That being said, there is some concern that we could see lingering icy spots on roadways, especially overpasses and bridges, so we are likely going to extend these products out through 10:00 AM CST based off trends we see over the next few hours. As of 08:30z, surface observations showed temperatures across the area hovering near the freezing mark. Elsewhere across the area, where the greater snow amounts fell and the continued cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the lower 40s with a few locations struggling to make it out of the upper 30s.
Some of the high resolution guidance still sets up a narrow band of snow midday near or just South of the Memphis Metro as the upper low moves over the area. Temperatures should be below freezing by 9-10pm with lows in the mid 20s across most of the area.
Also, observed temps and dewpoints running warmer than forecast so extent of mix with snow or sleet may only be possible for first couple hours or so before changing to all rain later this morning. Also no surge of cold air behind this wave with SW flow patterns so refreezing of moisture should be limited, though some parts of far N and NW could see some temps near 30 before sunrise Tues.
The warming trend continues through the middle of the week with mid- level ridging and downslope flow keeping conditions dry and temperatures above normal.
An upper level low over northeast TX will move east-northeastward through AR this morning and into the TN Valley region tonight. Will also have slightly warmer high temperatures, particularly across central and southeast MO with at least partial sunshine this afternoon. Much warmer high temperatures are forecast Tuesday with plenty of solar insolation along with southwest winds.
This fog should burn off by 8am, giving way to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures.
Considerably warmer Tuesday through the remainder of the week.
Unfortunately stratus is not the only cloud out there this morning, and while the low level status is expected to slowly pull east to drape across mainly the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin by this afternoon, we will still have mid and higher cloud to keep us mostly cloudy even for the Brainerd Lakes region. Tuesday will see some more sunshine with the lower clouds finally pushing east and north of the forecast area as warm air advection set in aloft. It should also allow temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 30s.
930 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeasterly across Florida late today and off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.
Rains/ Freezing precip is now located in east central louisiana and will exit into Mississippi just after sunrise this am. Winds will lift off the surface this eve and skies becoming partly cloudy as high pressure settles over the regiion.
547 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 [Through 12Z Tuesday] Multi-layered cloudiness will continue to stream over the terminals through tonight as low pressure tracks eastward along the Gulf Coast states. High pressure is shifting northeast over the Mid-Atlantic and an inverted coastal trough will lift north today. Cloud cover will steadily build throughout the day ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the west. The low will track through southeast GA overnight and push offshore near sunrise tomorrow.
Warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday afternoon as an upper level ridge of high pressure slides eastward into the western states.
417 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeasterly across Florida late today and off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.
544 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Adjusted near-term forecast temps and dewpoints based on observed trends which continue warmer than forecast. Also, observed temps and dewpoints running warmer than forecast so extent of mix with snow or sleet may only be possible for first couple hours or so before changing to all rain later this morning. Also no surge of cold air behind this wave with SW flow patterns so refreezing of moisture should be limited, though some parts of far N and NW could see some temps near 30 before sunrise Tues.
Weak coastal trough extending along the South FL coast has lead to low to mid level cloudiness this morning, with very light sprinkles streaming south of Lake Okeechobee. Current forecast is on track, with highs in the low to mid 70s. (previous) Coastal trough extends from south FL northward along the Treasure coast, just offshore the Cape and continues well offshore NE FL. Weak low pressure will advance toward north FL from the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds veer S/SW as a weak cold front approaches from the NW.
404 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 An upper low centered over northeast Texas will shift east into southern Arkansas this morning.
Steady temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s combined with brisk northwest winds are creating wind chill temperatures around 30 degrees across the CWA this morning. Chilly temperatures are expected today with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s across the ranchlands to the upper 30s to around 40 across the Rio Grande Valley. Light winds and less clouds should support good radiational cooling and allow temperatures to fall to near or slightly below freezing tonight across the ranchlands. However, some model guidance suggest that clouds may return late tonight and keep much of the area above freezing.
On top of the low confidence cloud and morning low temperature forecast, the degree to which snow cover affects the forecast is uncertain.
408 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 The first half of the week will feature warmer than average temperatures.
Otherwise, dry conditions are in store today with afternoon high temperatures only reaching the low 30s.
Since issuance, the winds have come down a little, but they are not expected to stay down for too long as the low level gradients rapidly increase for Bordeaux over the next few hours.
We could be lucky enough to see a few breaks in the clouds with this low-level mixing ahead of this trough. Then low clouds will fill back in this evening and we could see some light freezing drizzle or snow showers once again through the rest of the night.
/Issued 404 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/ An upper low centered over northeast Texas will shift east into southern Arkansas this morning.
Cirrus clouds will continue working their way into the region overnight, with lows temperatures on Tuesday morning getting down into the lower 20s. As upper level ridging takes place aloft, west/southwesterly surface winds will again be increasing during the morning hours leading to another dry and warm day. Soundings around the region reveal that mixing depths will remain rather limited, thanks to less gusty winds which will hinder us from being able to tap into the even warmer temperatures aloft.
A late week cold front will bring a return of precipitation chances. Current conditions across the forecast area features increasing cloud cover ahead of a approaching trough currently sweeping through the Great lakes and OH. Northwest flow behind the trough and enough low level moisture will keep cloud cover across the area for the day today. To boot, positioning of the feature will slowly bring warmer air into the area allowing for slightly warmer than normal temps for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
320 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure over the area through Tuesday will maintain dry conditions.
There is a weak 500mb ridge, which kept the weather quiet today, that is breaking down ahead of a weak 500mb low, currently over east texas. This will keep the cold front from passing through the area on Tuesday, becoming more of a stalled weak boundary over Central Florida. There is also a weak area of high pressure just to the northeast of the Bahamas, which will help to advect some moisture towards the area. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will also allow for a little cooler temps with temps in the low to mid 70s once for the end of the week. As we move into the weekend another deep trough will be dropping out of Canada and into the eastern CONUS.
422 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 Surface temperatures remain above freezing which has kept snow potentials low. Rain will begin to diminish as we near daybreak today as the low moves off to the east. There will likely be some lingering showers mainly behind east of I-55 after daybreak as the high pressure system builds over the area. Breezy winds out of the north will help maintain windchill in the 30s with overnight lows at or near freezing. These freezing low temperatures are mainly along and north of I-10/12.
We may finally get a decent amount of sunshine on Tuesday as low pressure moves farther away and surface winds turn more southwesterly.
This is helping keeping temperatures up in the lower to mid 30s, even with snow cover across much of the area. Have backed off on the freezing fog this morning across the southern 2/3 of the area and going with patchy freezing fog. Will keep areas of freezing fog across the Big Country.
952 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-Atlantic, influencing our weather through the week. A weak low pressure system will pass to the south of our area on Tuesday.
222 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 The first half of the week will feature warmer than average temperatures.
645 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeasterly across Florida late today and off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.
A late week cold front will bring a return of precipitation chances.
/issued 422 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/ Surface temperatures remain above freezing which has kept snow potentials low. Rain will begin to diminish as we near daybreak today as the low moves off to the east. There will likely be some lingering showers mainly behind east of I-55 after daybreak as the high pressure system builds over the area. Breezy winds out of the north will help maintain windchill in the 30s with overnight lows at or near freezing. These freezing low temperatures are mainly along and north of I-10/12.
A weak trough of low pressure is positioned across central SD, and continues to track eastward. As a broad upper level ridge becomes established across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday, 850mb temps climb from between ~0 to 4C Monday afternoon (warmer west, cooler east) to between ~5 to 10C across the area by Tuesday 6pm (at/above the 90th percentile from climatology). Resulting forecast is for high temps on Tuesday in the low 40s across the still snow-covered Prairie Coteau to the mid-50s across portions of central SD, which is 20+ degrees above normal. Mobridge comes closest to breaking a daily record on Tuesday (57 in 1987).
400 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will be the theme today. Tuesday will be one more clear warm day as the upper ridge remains stretched across the state.
/Issued 544 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021/ Adjusted near-term forecast temps and dewpoints based on observed trends which continue warmer than forecast. Also, observed temps and dewpoints running warmer than forecast so extent of mix with snow or sleet may only be possible for first couple hours or so before changing to all rain later this morning. Also no surge of cold air behind this wave with SW flow patterns so refreezing of moisture should be limited, though some parts of far N and NW could see some temps near 30 before sunrise Tues.
324 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Overview: An upper level low. an upper level ridge along the central/southern Pacific coast will extend eastward through the Intermountain West into the Central High Plains.
228 AM PST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure will prevail over the forecast area this work week, leading continued morning fog and rising afternoon highs. This pattern of morning fog followed by above average highs where leftover stratus dissipates across the valley is expected to continue through the week as the ridge of high pressure aloft builds.
Rains/ Freezing precip is now located in east central louisiana and will exit into Mississippi just after sunrise this am. Winds will lift off the surface this eve and skies becoming partly cloudy as high pressure settles over the region.
This warmer airmass combined with plenty of sunshine and minimal clouds will allow temperatures to warm well into the mid to upper 40s.
The air mas should be warm enough that if there was more sunshine guidance many locations would be above freezing. On Tuesday, further moderation of the air mass with westerly flow, along with more potential for sunshine should allow for highs above freezing across our CWA. The pattern of ridging in the west and troughing in the east continues across the United States.
343 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Overview: An upper level low. an upper level ridge along the central/southern Pacific coast will extend eastward through the Intermountain West into the Central High Plains.
639 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will weaken as low pressure develops along the Georgia coast today. The low will bring light rain as it moves northeastward tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog and stratus will erode from west to east this morning as westerly winds into the surface lee trough continue to eat away at the edges. It should be slightly warmer for the lower eastern slopes overnight as westerly winds pick up into the surface lee trough.
Lower amplitude mid level northwest flow void of meaningful forced ascent or moisture/thermal advection leaves a largely static environment featuring dry conditions and temperatures on the warmer side of average throughout the early week period. Pervasive region of broken to overcast stratus now blanketing the region lodged within an existing low level thermal trough, effectively retaining a narrow moist layer beneath a stout inversion above 900 mb. Gradual exit of the mean trough synced with diurnal heating under light southwest wind will afford a modest diurnal response today. Highs today arriving within a couple degrees either side of the freezing mark - likely the 'coldest' day of this work week.
High temperatures around average for today and Tuesday will warm significantly for the latter half of the week as high pressure expands across California and strengthens along the West Coast.
A weak trough of low pressure is positioned across central SD, and continues to track eastward. As a broad upper-level ridge becomes established across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday, 850mb temps climb from between ~0 to 4C Monday afternoon (warmer west, cooler east) to between ~5 to 10C across the area by Tuesday 6pm (at/above the 90th percentile from climatology). Resulting forecast is for high temps on Tuesday in the low 40s across the still snow-covered Prairie Coteau to the mid-50s across portions of central SD, which is 20+ degrees above normal. Mobridge comes closest to breaking a daily record on Tuesday (57 in 1987).
Slick roads may continue to cause travel issues into early afternoon or until we see temperatures warm just above freezing this afternoon.
By late this afternoon, precip should be over as high pressure moves in on northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will be well down into the 20s, which will likely create refreezing hazards on area roadways/bridges.
458 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Under variably cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are averaging in the lower 60s along the Florida Keys.
Forecast soundings mostly saturate up to 3 kft and will have to consider whether the small potential for freezing drizzle is worth a mention. We could be lucky enough to see a few breaks in the clouds with this low-level mixing ahead of this trough. Then low clouds will fill back in this evening and we could see some light freezing drizzle or snow showers once again through the rest of the night.
Dominating high pressure parks overhead for the next few days.
1007 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Overview: An upper level low. an upper level ridge along the central/southern Pacific coast will extend eastward through the Intermountain West into the Central High Plains.
1036 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure along the Gulf Coast will move northeast and spread rain into the area this afternoon and tonight. The low pressure system will move northeast of the area Tuesday.
Highs were in the mid 30s to mid 40s today, and should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer tomorrow, or around 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year. Will continue to go on the higher end of guidance for high temperatures.
1235 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeasterly across Florida late today and off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.
1243 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-Atlantic, influencing our weather through the week. A weak low pressure system will pass to the south of our area on Tuesday.
Many of the models have not depicted this clearing and in fact was trying to keep the low stratus socked in which obviously was wrong. Key messages: 1) Have removed the mention of freezing drizzle for tonight. 2) More sunshine and warmer on Tuesday. A weak upper level trough will swing through the area overnight but lack of moisture and little if any forcing should preclude any pcpn.
Visibilities have improved over the northwoods this afternoon, so think freezing drizzle is no longer a threat for the rest of the day. However, freezing drizzle could be a concern again late tonight and is the focus of this forecast. Lows mainly in the low to mid 20s. But as warmer/downsloped air invades the region from the west, there are indications of thinning low level moisture that could lead to partial clearing in the afternoon. As a result, went with warmer highs into the lower 30s for most locations. Tuesday Night Through Monday Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week, with with warmer air arriving ahead of a cold front approaching from the Northern Plains.
208 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 145 PM CST The primary forecast concern is the threat for a period of freezing drizzle late tonight into early Tuesday morning. However, of more concern is the threat for a period of freezing drizzle with this lower cloud cover tonight. If any precipitation does occur, it appears that it could be in the form of light freezing drizzle due to relatively warm cloud temperatures, which look unlikely to support heterogeneous ice nucleation.
A weak coastal trough tries to develop into Tuesday night and may help develop a couple of showers into southeastern Cameron County, otherwise, mainly stay offshore. Lows tonight approach freezing across the ranchlands and upper 30s to near 40 for the RGV. Wind chill values may drop again to near freezing for the RGV and into the upper 20s for the ranchlands, but winds should stay generally below 10 mph. Highs today will likely struggle to get into the low 50s.
The upper level trough located over the Red River Valley is expected to move northeast throughout the day. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s.
Early afternoon temperatures have quickly warmed into the lower to middle 40s in most areas, with the exception of snow-covered sections of northern Missouri where visible satellite imagery shows an expansive swath of snow and ice remaining on surfaces.
154 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over AR with troughing extending west over the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was weakening over the southern plains while a trough of low pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into the central high plains.
145 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 145 PM CST The primary forecast concern is the threat for a period of freezing drizzle late tonight into early Tuesday morning. However, of more concern is the threat for a period of freezing drizzle with this lower cloud cover tonight. If any precipitation does occur, it appears that it could be in the form of light freezing drizzle due to relatively warm cloud temperatures, which look unlikely to support heterogeneous ice nucleation.
15z surface map placed high pressure over north Texas, ridging northeast into the Ohio Valley. This was producing light west to southwest winds locally, which will strengthen to 10-15 mph this afternoon over the northern half of the CWA and remain light farther south near the ridge axis. Lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s.
Tonight through Tuesday night Closed upper low will develop near the bootheel of New Mexico and far West Texas tonight and will track to around the Big Bend of southwest Texas Tuesday and then across central Texas Tuesday night. With the snow cover expected to mostly melt today, temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s to the lower and possibly mid 50s Tuesday.
Low temps tonight will generally fall into the mid and upper 20Fs, possibly a few degrees cooler where winds become calm at times with effective radiational cooling. However, modest lift associated with the trough should only be sufficient to produce a few upper or mid-level clouds during the morning.
With temperatures generally at or above freezing, as soon as the snow let up the snow began to melt. The current upper level pattern is characterized by a closed upper level low to the northwest centered near Memphis, TN. At the surface, low pressure is centered near Panama City, FL with an inverted trough extended northwards from this low. Further east, across Dekalb, Jackson, and Marshall counties, easterly winds have advected in warmer low- level temperatures keeping the precipitation all rain for these areas. Most locations will be below freezing from roughly 9 PM tonight through 9 AM Tuesday morning. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible overnight with plenty of low-level moisture from the snow/rain today. Temperatures should warm quickly with plenty of insolation and should be above freezing across the area by 10 AM.
Highs on Tuesday will climb into the lower 50s across the Ozarks region.