Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
651 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI LATER IN THE EVENING AND THERE IS DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCU NOTED UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO AND NW MN ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
112 PM MST MON JUN 15 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING PWAT INDICATING ABOUT 1. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY. BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT THAT HAS CAUSED RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF INDIANA BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
A weak upper level trough or shear axis now located from central Oklahoma into northern Missouri will continue to sag slowly southeast and stretch across the Ozarks region by Tuesday.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT. LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
CLOUDY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OUR CHANCES OF BREAKING OUT ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HOLDING ON STRONG.
EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 90S IN WARMER AREAS THRU MID-WEEK.
/ISSUED 317 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015/ A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
254 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 An approaching disturbance along with daytime heating will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening for the higher terrain of north-central Idaho through Southwest Montana. Storms will be moving rather quickly allowing a few to drop into the lower valleys. The low-level air is rather dry, so stronger storms may produce gusty winds.
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
WE ARE RIGHT SMACK DAB UNDERNEATH THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AS OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SE CONUS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND OVERALL DRIER AIR TO LINGER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH (WHICH IS NOT OUR TYPICAL HOT TRAJECTORIES) BUT MORE SUNSHINE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE HIGHS 92-94. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT TO OCCUR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MORE READINGS IN THE MID 90S.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
311 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SHORT LIVED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN INVEST AND HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP SOME STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PRETTY MUCH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST US AND THE TROPICAL WAVE /AL-91/ MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. LATEST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STAYING JUST BELOW 100. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF MOVES UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
RANGING BETWEEN 15-17 KNOTS ON THE HIGH END TO 10-12 KNOTS ON THE LOW END. CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
402 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTN UNDER STRONG RIDGING. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDED FROM THE UINTAS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE 60S FAR SOUTH AND IN SOME SPOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. MAINLY NORTH DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
211 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE ARWEA ON TUESDAY.
THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DICTATE OUR CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.
The convection is occurring across central Oklahoma into western Iowa ahead of an upper level trough located across the Plains. An upper level ridge of high pressure remains in place across the south eastern U. The upper level trough axis will slowly slide east today and and will set up across eastern Kansas tonight. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop just to the east of trough axis somewhere across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri and possibly into central Missouri. The upper level trough axis will shift over the region by Tuesday evening and should start to see better coverage in storms Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will increase some with the trough over the region, though instability will again not be overly strong.
433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE PERIOD STARTS.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WAS MOVG INTO SW WI. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AND SCT SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
419 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. A COLD FRONT HAS KEPT WINDS NORTHERLY AND ALLOWED HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN SIMILAR WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF THAT DOES NOT QUITE YET HAVE A CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD.
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF STACKED HIGH PRESSURE, WITH WARM, MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF, THE SEABREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE LITTLE ON THE SOUTHERN END BUT OVER THE MS VALLEY IT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
131 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A WARM FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARD MID WEEK. WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF REGION. MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
630 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
However, the potential for severe weather is diminished by the low confidence in thunderstorms developing. The thunderstorms will be enhanced by diffluent flow aloft, and good instability in the low levels, so severe weather will again be a possibility with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. However, most of this activity should remain west of our area, as storms will likely weaken after moving east off the higher terrain.
IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
211 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
333 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A WARM FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARD MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
245 PM PDT Sun May 17 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Lots of cloudiness across interior NorCal this afternoon with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the northern Sierra Nevada and Coast Range, and even some snow across the high Sierra.
319 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A ROBUST SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS AS WELL FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE UNTIL LOW CLOUDS FLOOD EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL BE COLD ADVECTING THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT.
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDY AND COOLER WITH MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION PRODUCING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH.
Early this morning, the upper level trough, that brought widespread thunderstorms across the CWA this evening, was located across south central NE and was lifting northeast. Today, The upper trough will continue to track north-northeast into eastern ND by 00Z MON. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s. Tonight, a cold front will push southward across the CWA. The low-levels of the atmosphere look too dry for any pre or post frontal showers to develop.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN WYOMING. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
The airmass has been worked over pretty well, with dewpoints just now starting to return to the lower 60s.
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S AND MLCAPE HAS EXCEEDED 1500 J/KG. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TUE NGT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. TROF DIGGING TOWARD THE CA COAST THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WED AND ACROSS OUR AREA WED NIGHT.
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH. TOMORROW: A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND FAIRLY COOL 850-HPA TEMPERATURES, HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION WITH MID 60S FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.
LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS. THE MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT INTO THE GOMEX. LOW ENERGY/RH AIR ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL AS THE RIDGE DROPS S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF ECFL BY 00Z THIS EVENING. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MID WEEK AND WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH. AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND WEST OF OUR AREA NEAR A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
406 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015 Water vapor imagery at 20Z shows the closed upper low lifting northeast over the northern plains, while very weak embedded pv anomalies rotate southward over western and southern Nebraska. Otherwise the cold front currently over northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska is expected to shift southeast through the area tonight. Skies remain mostly sunny with temperatures much cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENTIRELY END AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMES INLAND VIA CALIFORNIA AND CIRCULATES MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH NEVADA MONDAY. WETTEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLING OVER FAR NORTHESTERN SD AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY.
showers and a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the southeastern corner of Washington and the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle. Scattered showers will continue to affect the higher terrain west of the basin as easterly upslope flow enhances lift.
1130 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN SD THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND LOW OVER CENTRAL SD. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY. /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO DRY OUT TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WITH SOME DISTINCT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT WIND AND HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THAT SOLUTION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
331 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 IN SPITE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED. AN 110 KT JET ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING IT A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. NUDGED MONDAY/S HIGHS TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGH PASSES PROBABLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH MOST SNOW MELTING ON CONTACT SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING HILITES.
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A NORTHERLY PUSH FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS.
120 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE INLAND TEMPERATURES.
249 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 Much quieter weather this afternoon across western Montana and central Idaho as a low pressure system which brought several rounds of precipitation to the area has shifted east of the area. A few showers are still possible this afternoon over the higher terrain south of I-90, particularly in central Idaho. A broad trough will be settling over the western United States throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The circulation around this low will push mid level moisture into the Northern Rockies causing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UA LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED NE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00 INCH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STILL APPEARS AN ACTIVE WEEK IS IN THE OFFING WITH SPLIT FLOW REMAINING OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH THIS FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING A STEADY DIET OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EJECTION EWD ONTO THE PLAINS.
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 STRONG HEIGHT RISES HAVE TAKEN OVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN SO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BE THE BEST AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONALLY ACTIVE AND WET MONTH OF MAY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PROMISES TO DELIVER A SLEW OF TROUGHS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
WITH SCT CONVECTION HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE INTO N LA/SCNTRL AR.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST. TROF OFF THE WEST COAST EJECTING LARGE FIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS DISORGANIZED AND WELL MIXED UNDER THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER TROF. NOTED CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF TOWARD THE COAST. NOW STARTING TO LOOK LIKE LESS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAN BENITO COUNTY MONDAY AS WELL WITH TROF DYNAMICS FURTHER INLAND TOWARD SIERRAS.
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.