Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis reveals breezy and seasonably cool conditions across southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the wake of a cold front. Afternoon highs will only make it into the low and mid 40s for many locations given the clouds and CAA in the wake of the cold front. Winds will remain light out of the northeast as Canadian high pressure drifts over the Great Lakes region.
Cold front has cleared the southern counties and temperatures are gradually dropping. Approach of the upper level trough axis will begin to approach late tonight, with the widespread showers and a few storms continuing. May reach into the low to mid 30s for areas from Sweetwater north to Haskell and Throckmorton. Could see a few pockets of freezing rain develop, although with temperatures only right at freezing, impacts would be very small.
443 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 High pressure will build into the area through Friday and then move off to the east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain on the periphery of both high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere during the period.
Vigorous upper trough noted on latest water vapor imagery off the coast of northern California will cross the Rockies over the next 24-36 hours.
431 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Sensible weather conditions across the Florida Keys are nearly identical to yesterday morning with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s and dew points in the mid 60s. Interestingly the radar is also detecting an area of confluent northeasterlies and easterlies just south of the Lower Keys and along the Middle and Upper Keys. GOES-East infrared imagery shows a distinct line of flattened strato-cu along this interface, extending out over the warmer waters of the Straits.
/issued 237 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020/ High pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today with continued warm humid conditions across west central and southwest Florida. A backdoor cold front will push across the region tonight with drier slightly cooler air advecting over the area, however temperatures will remain above climatic normals.
As the low shifts into us Friday mid to late afternoon through the evening we lose our ice introduction and precip transitions to drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the low shifts east Friday night and colder air comes in, precip will transition back to snow with strong winds coming in with the colder air.
Much nicer weather is on tap for the region today as high pressure across the Ohio valley continues to influence surface conditions. High pressure to the north will bring VFR flight conditions through the next 24 hours. As the high slides off to the east, surface winds will veer to the south and east and advect mid to upper level moisture. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 33 51 41 54 / 0 0 0 40 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 31 47 39 53 / 0 0 0 30 100 Oak Ridge, TN 53 29 47 39 53 / 0 0 0 40 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 25 45 34 51 / 0 0 0 30 100.
A trof over the eastern United States has pushed a cold front to the northwest Florida coastline. Alabama/Mississippi are in the convergent zone between the eastern trof and southern trof, and light rain has developed over central Mississippi this afternoon. The combination of clouds and north surface winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than numerical guidance is forecasting. Ridging builds across the region Friday, which will provide for subsidence across Central AL, keeping the area rain-free for much of the day.
1258 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 A cold front is moving off the South Carolina coast this afternoon.
There could even be some spotty freezing drizzle developing Friday morning prior to the snowfall.
The greatest chances for rain and high elevation snow shifts towards the Kaibab Plateau this evening with the passage of a trough overnight.
239 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 Main change to forecast and messaging with the pending winter storm system is the prolonged expectation of sleet/freezing rain Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The 12Z TOP sounding depicts a very dry air mass beneath ~450 hPa, with antecedent west to northwest flow aloft and northerly flow in the lower levels. Still expecting a quick round of snow, initially, moving into the area before transitioning to sleet and then freezing rain throughout the area. Surface temps will be slow to warm, even through the afternoon, which will all result in the aforementioned prolonged period of freezing rain. , the Friday morning commute will be treacherous, especially with sub-freezing road temps from the onset of the event.
/CME/ This morning, cold frontal boundary slowly edging S across the forecast area and as of 9am is along Hwy 84. The short lived upper ridging over the SE US will begin to lose its influence over the region during the day on Friday as an upper trough crosses the Plains and approaches the MS River Valley. Return flow from the Gulf will have developed at the surface by Friday evening as SW flow develops in the upper levels ahead of the approaching upper trough.
This morning, cold frontal boundary slowly edging S across the forecast area and as of 9am is along Hwy 84. The short lived upper ridging over the SE US will begin to lose its influence over the region during the day on Friday as an upper trough crosses the Plains and approaches the MS River Valley. Return flow from the Gulf will have developed at the surface by Friday evening as SW flow develops in the upper levels ahead of the approaching upper trough.
Kept precip all liquid for now, but BVO/NW AR TAF sites will need to be monitored tonight in case surface temps trend any cooler than currently forecast.
1030 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Currently - Mid and upper level ridge remains in place across the Gulf and Sunshine State. Current temperatures reveal mid to upper 70s across all of the Keys with dew points in the lower to mid 60s and winds light from the ENE to E. The trailing cold front associated with the low will push south across our region by Friday afternoon and evening.
Several inches of new snow are expected in northern mountain areas tonight as Pacific cold front comes in. Warmer most areas today, then colder Friday behind tonight's cold front.
/issued 330 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/ A surface cold front has pushed through the Mid-South and is currently draped across Central MS. The drier cooler air has been slow to pool into the region keeping temperatures in the 50s northward and mid 60s south. High pressure will begin to build into the region today allowing drier and cooler conditions to prevail across the Mid-South. Upper ridging will become more amplified in response to a developing upper trough across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will begin to shift to the east Thursday night. In response, southerly flow will return to the Mid- South on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cold front has moved through the forecast area and satellite imagery shows skies becoming partly cloudy. Dry high pressure will come in from the north through this taf period.
The cooler temps have not begun moving in as temps continue to rise across N GA but they will begin cooling this evening through tonight. Northwesterly low-level winds behind the cold front have been fairly breezy as well this afternoon with gust in the 20-25kt range especially across N GA. With the cooler temps moving in tonight, looking for Friday morning lows to dip into the 30s and 40s.
It will also remain dry tomorrow during the day and around normal as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes.
Much nicer weather is on tap for the region today as high pressure across the Ohio valley continues to influence surface conditions. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 33 51 41 54 / 0 0 10 40 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 31 47 39 53 / 0 0 10 30 100 Oak Ridge, TN 53 29 47 39 53 / 0 0 10 40 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 25 45 34 51 / 0 0 0 30 100.
High pressure will provide mainly clear skies through tonight.
There are some exceptions, Ketchum to Stanley may see 3 to 8 inches with the higher amounts on the ridges.
GOES imagery and obs indicate lower cloud streets continue to drop south behind the cold front. The lower clouds will tend to decrease, with high clouds thinning a bit this afternoon. Although low-level flow will return from the southeast on Friday as the Arctic ridge builds eastward into New England and southward in the lee of the Appalachians, persistent mid/high clouds will keep high temps in the l-m 50s.
Plenty of post-frontal shower activity this morning as the upper trough remains just offshore. The upper trough will finally move inland tonight and a ridge will build in from the south.
Cold front has moved through the forecast area and satellite imagery shows skies becoming partly cloudy.
This as a result of a 1045 mb high pressure system centered over MN. However, this is temporary as moisture spills through the 5h ridge axis in the southern Plains. On Friday into Friday night, the high pressure cell shifts into the eastern Great Lakes, inducing a lee side ridge axis east of the Appalachians. Southerly flow across the lower MS valley will advect dew points in the 40s just to our west, with 30s in our northwest AL counties.
148 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 A cold front is moving off the South Carolina coast this afternoon.
High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee from the north, with VFR conditions and still some wind after last night's fropa. The ridge will pass over the mid state tomorrow, with winds gradually shifting around to the ESE by afternoon. Look for increasing cloudiness tomorrow ahead of the next cold front, but still VFR thru the TAF period.
But this will change overnight as a "back door" cold front moves from the FL panhandle southward towards the local area. Big changes in winds tonight as a cold front approaches the east central Atlantic waters.
Drier and slightly warmer conditions are likely through the upcoming weekend.
Southeasterly winds expected to increase mid Friday morning and continue through Friday evening as the pressure gradient increases due to an approaching cold front.
732 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Latest surface analysis has a frontal boundary along the GA/FL border with strong high pressure. the RAP model moves the front southward across the area later tonight through Fri with limited moisture and slightly cooler and drier air in it's wake. Winds will briefly slacken Sat then pick back up as strong high pressure drives another cold front through the area Sun.
Not much change to the forecast through tomorrow, with high rain chances tonight into Friday as overrunning occurs and lift from an approaching upper trough increases. Temperatures across the far western Big Country have dipped to around 32 degrees early this afternoon and some pockets of freezing rain will be possible through the rest of the afternoon, although little if any impact is expected on area roadways. Highs on Friday will be in the 50s for most of the area, expect far southeast sections where highs in the lower 60s are expected.
357 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 The magnitude of cold airmass and cloud cover has kept temperatures colder than some of the recent models and forecasts had for today, and perhaps the area around Elkhart may be the only areas that briefly see temperatures above freezing this afternoon before diurnal curve has an effect. No significant changes we're made to the current forecast for tonight's sleet an freezing rain event. Models have consistently indicated initial possibility for snow and sleet with a turn to a deeper warm layer and high certainty for widespread freezing rain. Gusty northwest winds will return on Friday which will create some downslope and much greater potential for highs in the upper 50s and 60s in the far west and cooler 40s in central Kansas as the clouds take much of the day to clear.
Some LIFR to VLIFR conditions may also develop at the three TAF sites with freezing rain and rain along with freezing fog expected. Moisture will continue to move over the cold dome at the surface and this will set the stage for freezing rain to continue overnight. The freezing layer below this to the surface is only about 1,000 feet deep. So, have gone with freezing rain as the predominant weather for tonight. The sub freezing area near the surface will slowly erode through the night and we should see temperatures warm above freezing by mid morning.
A ridge will build in aloft overnight, becoming centered over the Mississippi River early tomorrow morning. A few showers may approach Northeast Arkansas around sunrise with temperatures in the lower 30s. The threat for any frozen or freezing precipitation should not last for more than an hour or two with no accumulation. By tomorrow afternoon the ridge should be over Alabama and Middle Tennessee resulting in Southwest flow across the Midsouth. As the result of the Ridge and strengthening Southeast flow slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow. Highs are expected to range from the low to mid 40s across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to the low to middle 50s across North Mississippi. We should stay well above freezing Friday night keeping all rain of the liquid variety.
Shallow wedge of cold air remains in place across eastern OK and part of northwest AR this afternoon with temps remaining below freezing over northwest Osage and northern Washington counties. Right now dew points are only in the teens to lower 20s within the cold airmass and as precip begins to fall, expect wet bulb effect to lower temps some with a period of light freezing rain likely to the northwest of Pawnee- Bartlesville. Eventually warm advection should win out and temps there will slowly climb above freezing by morning. Cold front will sweep through the area late Friday with temperatues Friday night following a non-diurnal curve topping out during the night before dropping again by morning.
Temps will be near freezing, so some -FZRA is possible at KHRO/KBPK tonight to Friday morning.
Gusty winds and warming temperatures expected today ahead of a sharp cold front on track to pass late tonight into tomorrow morning. High pressure builds in through the weekend.
The magnitude of cold airmass and cloud cover has kept temperatures colder than some of the recent models and forecasts had for today, and perhaps the area around Elkhart may be the only areas that briefly see temperatures above freezing this afternoon before diurnal curve has an effect. No significant changes we're made to the current forecast for tonight's sleet an freezing rain event. Models have consistently indicated initial possibility for snow and sleet with a turn to a deeper warm layer and high certainty for widespread freezing rain. Gusty northwest winds will return on Friday which will create some downslope and much greater potential for highs in the upper 50s and 60s in the far west and cooler 40s in central Kansas as the clouds take much of the day to clear.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Latest surface analysis shows the cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning has pushed well to the south of the CWA. For tonight, subsidence beneath an upper level ridge axis moving in from the gulf will keep overall precipitation chances down overnight. Friday and Friday night, the ridging pattern will continue across the area through at least midday Friday ahead of an upper level trough begins to move east through the Rockies and into the central and southern plains by Friday afternoon. Convection is expected to increase Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of the advancing trough and associated front across the far northwest portion of the CWA. High temperatures on Friday are expected to range from the upper 40s across southwest Oklahoma to the lower 60s across the southern portion of the CWA.
524 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 VCSH will continue at the southern TAF sites through 03Z as a cold front continues to push southward through the area.
521 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 Main change to forecast and messaging with the pending winter storm system is the prolonged expectation of sleet/freezing rain Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The 12Z TOP sounding depicts a very dry air mass beneath ~450 hPa, with antecedent west to northwest flow aloft and northerly flow in the lower levels. Still expecting a quick round of snow, initially, moving into the area before transitioning to sleet and then freezing rain throughout the area. Surface temps will be slow to warm, even through the afternoon, which will all result in the aforementioned prolonged period of freezing rain. , the Friday morning commute will be treacherous, especially with sub-freezing road temps from the onset of the event.
136 PM PST Thu Jan 16 2020 A fast-moving low pressure system will bring gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts and precipitation from the coast to the mountains later today and tonight. High pressure builds in Friday through the weekend, bringing dry weather, warmer temperatures and periods of high clouds.
Moisture will continue to move over the cold dome at the surface and this will set the stage for freezing rain to continue overnight. The freezing layer below this to the surface is only about 1,000 feet deep. So, have gone with freezing rain as the predominant weather for tonight. The sub freezing area near the surface will slowly erode through the night and we should see temperatures warm above freezing by mid morning.
357 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 A weak cold front is currently pushing its way through the forecast area.
High pressure takes control for the weekend, with north breezes lingering down the Colorado River Valley. Axis of sharp, upper-level trough coming onto the California shore, with plume of moisture and upper-level lift aimed at the central and northern Sierra Nevada, slowly sinking southward. Fairly widespread gusts of 35 to 50 MPH have developed in the Wind Advisory/Warnings areas, though the higher speeds have been a bit slower to develop than some of the high res guidance might have indicated earlier. Winds decrease after midnight tonight, with cooler temperatures for most of the area and north winds increasing down the Colorado River Valley for Friday.
A trof over the eastern United States has pushed a cold front to the northwest Florida coastline. Alabama/Mississippi are in the convergent zone between the eastern trof and southern trof, and light rain has developed over central Mississippi this afternoon. The combination of clouds and north surface winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than numerical guidance is forecasting.
A cold front will bring chances of rain and mountain snow to the Kaibab Plateau by Friday morning.
Temperatures will continue to fall overnight behind the cold front with upper teens to mid 20s common across the region with locally single digits over North Central Washington. JW 06z TAFS: A band of snow associated with a cold front over SE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle will exit overnight with snow coming to an end at KCOE/KPUW/KLWS.
1023 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a robust ridge extending northward over much of central North America. At the surface, the dominant features are a sprawling arctic anticyclone centered over the upper Midwest and extending southward to the Gulf coast, and a rapidly intensifying gale center over the North Atlantic. Overnight, we can expect fair and rain-free weather, with moderate breezes and low temperatures probably not dipping below the lower 70s.
1255 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 High pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
Some sleet has been reported in spots, owing to the warm but very dry layer between cloud base and the ground per model soundings (wet bulb temp near 0C aiding in allowing freezing precip to reach ground). The freezing line remains to the north and west of Tulsa, lying across Osage and far northern Washington counties. Some light icing is possible on elevated surfaces as this light rain overspreads this zone of near or just below freezing air at the surface. However, with temps borderline freezing and some increase in surface temp after midnight in this zone, it remains uncertain as to whether there will be travel impacts. As the main area of precip expands into NW AR later tonight, short term guidance indicates that temps will wet bulb down to around freezing across Carroll and the higher terrain of eastern Madison counties.
224 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Significant U/L pattern change as the persistent strong U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida will be ejected east as an U/L trough digs over the eastern U. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will push across the forecast area early this morning with high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast building over the region in the wake of the front with increasing east to northeast winds. An area of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday with an associated cold front approaching north Florida Saturday night.
The lower levels will remain rather dry as seen in forecast soundings for the past several model runs. Downslope winds from the easterly winds won't help the low levels to moisten up, either.
An upper level storm and accompanying cold front will move through the area overnight. The cold front was through Burns as of 8 pm MST (7 pm PST), and was moving slowly east. Snow showers will continue overnight, especially in the higher terrain, and a winter weather advisory for snow has been issued for portions of the Upper Weiser River Basin and West Central Mountain zones (generally above 5500 feet).
A wintry mix of precipitation can be expected with weekend low pressure. A late eve update was issued to adjust POPs for numerous snow showers that continue to form on a southward sagging reinforcing cold front. Partly cloudy skies during the daylight hours will fade as the upper ridge axis approaches and warm advection commences. A mid-level trough will emerge from the central Rockies Friday evening, crossing the Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley by 12Z Saturday. A period of sleet and freezing rain can be expected in most locations during the day as the warm layer spreads northeast.
The pressure gradient remains relatively strong, so look for winds to stay up overnight, then shift around to the southeast tomorrow afternoon as the ridge passes over Middle Tennessee. This will pave the way for increasing cloudiness ahead of the next cold front. As the low-level jet strengthens in advance of this system, expect LLWS to become a problem after 00Z tomorrow evening, so will include LLWS remarks in the latter period of the upcoming TAF's.
The cooler temps have not begun moving in as temps continue to rise across N GA but they will begin cooling this evening through tonight. Northwesterly low-level winds behind the cold front have been fairly breezy as well this afternoon with gust in the 20-25kt range especially across N GA. With the cooler temps moving in tonight, looking for Friday morning lows to dip into the 30s and 40s. Yes, Saturday will be wet once again as showers move across the southeastern CONUS ahead of a cold front moving through Saturday evening.
253 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 After a cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, the temperatures and dew points will lower to more typical values for the next several days.
Temperatures will continue to fall overnight behind the cold front with upper teens to mid 20s common across the region with locally single digits over North Central Washington.
The low impact nature so far has been mostly from surface temperatures remaining above freezing in many areas, combined with a stubborn dry airmass in the lower trop that continues to eat into the eastern edge of the precip shield. The warm nose also hasn't shifted all the way north yet, allowing for more sleet than freezing rain. With temperatures remaining near freezing, latent heat processes will make it difficult to accumulate.