Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler valleys have dropped into the low to mid 60s, well on their way down to the current forecast lows in the mid 50s. Current lows in the mid 50s look very reasonable for the valleys, with ridges in the lower 60s. A large ridge continues to hold strong across the majority of the CONUS through the Mid-Atlantic states. Otherwise, conditions through Monday morning are expected to remain largely consistent with what was seen today/tonight with the exception of being slightly warmer. As we enter Monday the ridge continues to build into the region.
High pressure settling in over S TX with expectation of low level stratus and fog to develop over the next few hours, especially around ALI. Did hold off longer for BR development at VCT with the higher CIGs currently moving in.
/Issued 1012 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ Nice quiet evening compared to recent days as CAD wedge providing welcomed stabilized environment and cooler temps with easterly fetch and overrunning cloud cover. /Issued 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ Strong easterly flow associated with the high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states today continued to bring low level moisture into north and central GA this afternoon. High pressure and easterly low level flow will persist into the remainder of the short term.
The low dewpoints and clear skies will set us up for a cool night with lows in the 50s for most locations and in the lower 60s right along the coast. High pressure and warm temperatures aloft will provide another very warm day on Wednesday.
1048 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Low pressure will pull away from the region overnight followed by a weak trough that will move across the area on Wednesday.
Mild and dry weather conditions will persist on Wed-Thu before a cold front arrives ushering in more seasonable air and a slight chance for light precipitation late Thu.
Clouds associated with the weak trough moving across the area at the moment. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 63 35 69 / 0 0 0 0.
403 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Water vapor imagery reveals a changing longwave pattern as the upper trough has shifted along east coast with upper ridge now expanding from the Rockies out across the Plains. Consequently, temperatures have warmed considerably today across our region under mostly sunny skies and light winds with high pressure at surface. As the center of the high shifts east this evening and overnight, winds will return southerly and we are beginning to see early signs of that already across our far northwest zones. The warmer daytime temperatures will hang around a few more days as the upper ridge builds overhead for mid week.
Winds will decrease to near calm to very light and variable overnight as high pressure continues to encompass the region.
The main 500 mb ridgeline will pass east of the area tonight, opening UT and CO to increasing southwest winds at the surface and aloft. The Pacific trough expected to give us a brief bout of winter will dig into the Great Basin late Wed. The surface cold front appears will be moving east of the SLC vicinity after midnight Wed.
A cold front was moving across the Mid-State early this afternoon, and at 2 pm was just west of Nashville.
This activity should remain light, but expect pcpn intensity to increase somewhat in our west later tonight into Wednesday as Pac trof begins to move inland and we see an increase in lower-mid level frontogenesis. This will usher in cooler air from the northeast which will act as a wedge to help lift moist mid-level moisture moving in from the south and west. With good upper level support and upslope flow into the higher terrain, we are expecting the heaviest snows to be over the Beartooths (and associated foothills) and the Bighorn Mountains (and associated foothills near Sheridan and Story).
Mostly dry conditions return by midweek and will persist through late week as a weak ridge develops over the region.
While much of the CWA will remain dry for the remainder of this afternoon and evening, some isolated convection will be possible across mainly the southeast half of the forecast area as the trough axis pivots through. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will build over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. With full sun and dry ground conditions, despite the slightly cooler drier air over the region, highs areawide should climb into the mid and upper 70s.
Have carried the highest pops (likely) near the border with Canada. Precipitation type should primarily be rain, with thermal profiles warm enough to support all liquid, but have some concern a few spots in the far north could have surface temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. Will have only a few small grid points with any freezing rain potential for a brief period late tonight, so will not draw any special attention to it for now.
After many record high temperatures were set today, a cold front will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
If you must travel over the higher passes tonight, please use extra caution out there, roads will be slick and hazardous with temperatures falling to/below freezing. Showers will persist overnight into Wednesday as the cold upper trough offshore moves in.
A cold upper trough will bring showers to portions of the region through Wednesday. Much colder interior temperatures are expected this week as the trough moves overhead.
953 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Low pressure tracks across New England tonight and along the New England coast Wednesday. Meanwhile high pressure builds to the west through Wednesday.
920 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak trough will move across the area on Wednesday.
High pressure over the region will support fairly light northerly flow and 2-4 ft seas over the next few days.
759 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak trough will move across the area on Wednesday.
Cold front continues to shift east over the forecast area this evening and will move through the Magic Valley by midnight. Cold front currently draped across southwest ID will push through KTWF/KJER by late Tuesday evening. Main pcpn should come with the cold front as it passes through eastern Oregon late today and western Idaho this evening.
/Issued 440 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ Downsloping, light winds and ridging have allowed record high temps to be reached across the Panhandles today. Amarillo has reached 82 degrees so far and broke the high temp from 1965, which was 80 degrees. Record highs will be likely to be reached again tomorrow as upper level ridging just begins to break down ahead of the long awaited upper level longwave trough. Models are in closer consensus for the passage of the trough; however, models have been running a bit low on max temps and high on dewpoints. Winds will be on the increase as the trough gets closer and the pressure gradient tightens.
410 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper ridge axis will move across the central High Plains tonight with falling heights on Wednesday ahead of the system entering the Great Basin.
Water vapor imagery showing quick zonal flow aloft over the Northern and Central Rockies with upper ridge over southern Arizona. Despite the weak winds, 12Z sampled 850mb temperatures of 11C at TOP, 16C at LBF, and 18C at DDC signify the very warm mid-November airmass in place and 20Z surface temperatures in the lower 70s are common in the area. Upper ridge shifts east across Texas tonight into Wednesday as a trough enter the Great Basin. Mixing depths will be the main challenge, but feel fairly comfortable to go on the high end of guidance with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure will then bring much warmer temperatures before a strong area of low pressure results in rain, snow, and much colder temperatures this weekend. A minority of the NCAR reflectivity ensembles show the widely scattered showers shifting across the forecast area leading to the low confidence and low POP for any measurable rain.
536 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 VFR and dry with an upper level high high pressure ridge passing east overhead tonight followed by increasing southwest flow aloft Wednesday. /issued 343 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ An upper level ridge will migrate eastward over the southern high plains tonight. Light winds will persist through much of Wednesday morning, but with the ridge axis shifting to the east of the region and southwesterly upper level flow replacing it, a lee trough will develop across eastern New Mexico and will result in increasing southwest winds. High temperatures near today's highs and near the warmer end of a narrow MOS range look reasonable.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis moving east across the forecast area, as a broad upper ridge builds across much of CONUS west of the MS River. Meanwhile, the cold front extends from the eastern Great Lakes southward into western TN and central MS. Skies will continue to clear during the overnight hours as upper level ridging builds in once again across the area. The short term period will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and a strong upper ridging building across the area. Above normal temperatures will return on Wednesday, with temps rising into the low to mid 70s.
Low temperatures will vary greatly (as much as 10-15F) over small distances due to a very strong low level inversion which should allow rural valleys to be considerably colder than ridgetops and urban areas.
Axis of mid/upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf will swing across the peninsula overnight/early Wed. There is little moisture to work with though, as a cold front has settled into the northern Bahamas and Florida Straits, bringing drier/cooler air into the area. Temps look on track to drop into the lower-mid 50s over the area.
741 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 An upper level trough will cross the region tonight, followed by an amplified upper level ridge that will expand east toward the eastern US for the latter half of the week. A weakening, dry cold front/trough, associated with the upper trough axis, currently approaching the Tenn Valley may bring some scattered clouds into the western piedmont late tonight and stir winds a little, but this will have little impact on lows, which should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s for areas. In the wake of the upper trough crossing the area tonight, height rises will commence in earnest on Wednesday as the large scale flow amplifies and ridging build across the southern US.
An arcing upper level trough is carving out lower heights across the southeastern United States and the Florida peninsula. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 70s with dewpoints only a few ticks lower. Just to the north at KAPF, the dewpoint is in the lower 50s, so a significant airmass boundary is nearby. The forecast calls for decreasing rain chances overnight as the boundary layer dries out and the upper trough axis swings to the east of the peninsula. a cold front pushing through the Florida Keys overnight will freshen northerly breezes across the western-most waters first, then through the remaining portions Wednesday morning.
For tonight, an upper level ridge will move over the Central Plains with mostly clear skies and light winds. Lows will range from the low to mid 40s. For Wednesday, the upper ridge will move east with stronger southwesterly upper flow. Some records will likely fall with highs in the low to mid 80s. Will go ahead an upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning with the low humidities and winds expected.
808 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 An upper level trough will cross the region tonight, followed by an amplified upper level ridge that will expand east toward the eastern US for the latter half of the week. There is little in the way of moisture with the approaching weak upper level trough. This upper trough is expected to push through late tonight and early Wednesday morning with just a few mid/high clouds expected, but nothing more than mostly clear to partly cloudy skies officially. In the wake of the upper trough crossing the area tonight, height rises will commence in earnest on Wednesday as the large scale flow amplifies and ridging build across the southern US.
Doesn't look great for tying or breaking the record of 78 F unless some winds kick in? Models flatten the upper ridge over Colorado tonight as increasing southwesterly flow moves in Wednesday as an upper trough moves in/develops into the Great Basin by 00z late wednesday afternoon. There is weak upward synoptic scale energy progged on the QG Omega fields overnight, and it becomes a bit strong through the Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Models have decent drainage winds in the low levels tonight.
we expect at least some high clouds moving into the area during the day as the western trough approaches.
910 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Latest surface observations suggest that a weak cold front continues to lose definition across the TN valley this evening, with little change in thermodynamic properties of the airmass on either side of the boundary. That said, subtle confluence in the low-level wind field likely still exists across our region and has supported the persistent regeneration of stratocumulus clouds across our central and eastern forecast zones. Locally dense fog may also develop in river valleys and perhaps in the higher terrain of ne AL/srn TN where the existing lower cloud deck may continue to build down. The short term period will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and a strong upper ridging building across the area. Above normal temperatures will return on Wednesday, with temps rising into the low to mid 70s.
931 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Main update was to remove any mention of freezing rain from forecast grids. Have carried the highest pops (likely) near the border with Canada. Precipitation type should primarily be rain, with thermal profiles warm enough to support all liquid, but have some concern a few spots in the far north could have surface temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. Will have only a few small grid points with any freezing rain potential for a brief period late tonight, so will not draw any special attention to it for now.
expect breezy southerly winds to increase ahead a developing low pressure system on the lee side of the Rockies. The focus this afternoon remains on the approaching cold front and upper level low forecast to cross the local area mid week.
High pressure will then bring much warmer temperatures the remainder of the work week before a strong area of low pressure results in rain, snow, and much colder temperatures this weekend. A minority of the NCAR reflectivity ensembles show the widely scattered showers shifting across the forecast area leading to the low confidence and low POP for any measurable rain.
Confidence is higher with this run across the south and went the lowest there.
531 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Weak high pressure will continue to slide east of the area from this evening into the overnight period. As this happens, a weak cold front/wind shift line will move into northern and perhaps central Missouri before stalling. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the lower to middle 40s under mainly clear skies.
Light west-southwesterly winds will gradually back to the south tomorrow and increase to around 10-15 kts as an area of low pressure begins to deepen to our north.
Mid- and upper-level ridging combined with dry air and near calm winds is readily supporting the much above normal surface temperatures. 925mb temperatures will further increase tomorrow and allow for similar to 1-3F degrees warmer values.
600 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Mild and dry weather conditions will persist on Wed-Thu before a cold front arrives ushering in more seasonable air and a slight chance for light precipitation late Thu.
Wind will pick up a little out of the SW tomorrow as leeside trough deepens. /issued 256 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ Temperatures have warmed well above normal this afternoon under the influence of ridging aloft, with highs on target to reach well into the 70s and lower 80s across the area. On Wednesday, a pattern shift will begin to occur as the upper ridge axis shifts to the east in response to a trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest. Flow aloft will transition to southwesterly, and though the thermal ridge will shift eastward, highs Wednesday will be similar to today, in the 70s and 80s, roughly 10-15 degrees above normal.
440 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Downsloping, light winds and ridging have allowed record high temps to be reached across the Panhandles today. Amarillo has reached 82 degrees so far and broke the high temp from 1965, which was 80 degrees. Record highs will be likely to be reached again tomorrow as upper level ridging just begins to break down ahead of the long awaited upper level longwave trough. Models are in closer consensus for the passage of the trough; however, models have been running a bit low on max temps and high on dewpoints. Winds will be on the increase as the trough gets closer and the pressure gradient tightens.
A Pacific storm system will bring a change from our recent dry and warmer than normal weather as it moves through the region tonight and Wednesday.
Cold front now beginning to enter the forecast area and remains north of the TAF sites. Confidence is higher with this run across the south and went the lowest there.
However due to the passage of the cold front yesterday evening, drier conditions have been ushered in thus fog may be hard-pressed to develop. /issued 403 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ Water vapor imagery reveals a changing longwave pattern as the upper trough has shifted along east coast with upper ridge now expanding from the Rockies out across the Plains. Consequently, temperatures have warmed considerably today across our region under mostly sunny skies and light winds with high pressure at surface. As the center of the high shifts east this evening and overnight, winds will return southerly and we are beginning to see early signs of that already across our far northwest zones. The warmer daytime temperatures will hang around a few more days as the upper ridge builds overhead for mid week.
Otherwise kept forecast on it's current path towards introducing a change from the mild and dry weather to much cooler and more active pattern. Proton Previous Discussion Changes are coming as a large upper trough is moving onshore in the Pacific NW. Energy moving into the upper ridge this afternoon has triggered precipitation to break out over western and central Montana that will move into the CWA this evening, exiting across the northeast zones after midnight. Temperatures will be well above freezing tonight, so freezing precipitation is not expected.
Temperatures this morning are running about 5 to 12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday and we are on track for a rather warm day. Upper ridging has taken residence over the ArkLaMiss and this, along with plentiful sunshine, should allow for an unseasonably warm day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Once fog and low clouds dissipate, we should warm up quickly today as an anomalous mid/upper level ridge builds over the region.
It has not been particularly deep but has been deep enough to limit sunshine and keep temperatures cooler. On the other hand, as it continues to advance it will keep temperatures warmer overnight. Precipitation chances become the focus after 9 PM as an elongated neutral-tilt upper trough is moving across the plains. Several short wave troughs were moving toward the NNE out of the main longer wave trough. There is some potential to linger a bit longer in the far east as the upper trough slowly moves east and another slight chance for precip mainly in far northern KS late in the day as the surface front eventually moves into the area.
336 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the week.
305 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Low pressure passes well to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front north of the area dissipates. Another cold front moves through the area tonight.
220 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon.
1201 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure continues over Arkansas today. As the high moves east of the state tonight moisture will increase on the back side. Low pressure will move across south Texas tonight and a cold front will move into the Plains.
158 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the state through the short term.
As destabilization continues, and height falls associated with the mid to upper trough commence, this afternoon isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Coverage should increase rapidly during the evening hours as the mid level trough and jet approach.
Areas that remain in the clouds or that see only an hour or so of sun will be a couple of degrees cooler than the going forecast. Main changes to the forecast include an increase in cloud cover this morning and into mid afternoon, a slight decrease in the high temperatures beneath the persistent cloud cover, and a delay in POPs until after 21Z. This upper trough will move toward the southern Plains this afternoon, providing the forcing for showers and thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Texas by tonight. Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as winds become more southerly and lose some of the upslope component.
As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early Monday morning, the HRRR at this time developing another round of advection fog through the highway 183 corridor, which may cause travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this morning. On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the evening and overnight.
Southeast winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Monday into Monday night, and become southwest, as a tight pressure gradient develops ahead of a trough moving through the region. Medium Southerly flow continues with 850 moisture advection noted associated with increasing LLJ ahead of approaching trough. So confidence higher on the higher pops in the west after 18z. With more clouds and a persistent onshore flow temps will be cooler but still mild inland with 925 temps proggd to be 10-12c.
Things looking much better for this forecast period as high pressure is building into the area. Tomorrow we will be centered under a ridge of high pressure.
345 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure developing over the Rockies with a trailing cold front situated over the Front Range into far wrn TX. Closer to home high pressure was noted over the Ohio Valley. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing over the Rockies/nrn Mexico pushing ewd.
Temperatures across the region currently ranging from the mid 60s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 80s across portions of deep east Texas. Surface boundary across central Texas combined with upper-trough across west Texas to shift east overnight allowing for increasing rain chances across east Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
The area has rebounded nicely today with warmer temperatures.
Radar is clear at the moment, but as cigs lift into the low end VFR range by mid afternoon, expect scattered showers and eventually thunderstorms to develop. Better chance of convection looks to move into the area late this evening as the main upper trough approaches. However, abundant high clouds may result in breaks in the low clouds.
Despite building upper ridging influences/calm sfc winds, patches of high level bkn ci are expected to ride over upper level ridging influences, maybe curtailing potential for denser fog formation.
1223 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through Monday, shifting offshore mid week.
248 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through Monday, shifting offshore mid week.