Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
550 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Dropped the Freeze Warning for COZ007 this morning as temperature observations in the area are well above freezing and no longer expect a widespread freeze. Northwest flow has setup behind the trough passage with just a few clouds favoring northern portions of the CWA. This slight disturbance will allow high temperatures on Sunday to trend down just a couple degrees cooler than today but otherwise remain unnoticeable outside of a subtle wind switch.
405 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Today and tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a stalled front near a line from Meridian to Natchez and a ridge extending across our northwest zones from the northeast. Temperatures will be warmer than normal again today, topping out in the lower 90s at most location but mid 90s will be reached again in east Mississippi. Normal highs run in the lower 80s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight as sights bottom out in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
Northwest flow has setup behind the trough passage with just a few clouds favoring northern portions of the CWA. This slight disturbance will allow high temperatures on Sunday to trend down just a couple degrees cooler than today but otherwise remain unnoticeable outside of a subtle wind switch.
411 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 For today, a sunny sky with warmer high temperatures from around 60 northwest, to 60 to 65 across the south and east. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 50s northwest Sandhills to the lower 60s across the southeast.
512 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 High pressure over upstate New York will build southeast off the New England coast by tonight.
Clouds should start building in the east as we move into the late afternoon hours as an inverted trough situated to our east tries to pull moisture into Middle TN. Right now, dew points are in the low 50s, but 60s dew points over northern GA are expected to push northwestward over the next several hours. Look for this low-level moisture over the Plateau to continue pushing northwestward through the overnight hours, however.
The widespread rain maker will be the cold front and longwave trough that will approach the area Sunday afternoon.
Fall finally arrives Sunday night with the first strong cold front of the season.
which were warmer that forecast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 64 86 66 / 10 20 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 63 84 64 / 10 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 64 84 63 / 10 20 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 59 80 61 / 0 20 50 30.
330 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor imagery/upper air analysis shows a compact closed upper low now pushing across the CWA into southwest North Dakota. Upper ridging sets up across the western CONUS through Sunday as dry weather continues across the region.
349 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Colder temperatures behind the cold front this weekend will begin to warm as high pressure aloft expands east across the region early in the week.
657 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over northwest SD. Water vapor loop indicated an upper low pressure system over eastern WY.
A cold front will move into north Arkansas tonight and bring rain chances to the north. Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge continues over the eastern U. with an upper trough over the Rockies. The upper trough will expand into the central sections and eventually into the east Sunday. High pressure will continue over the state today. However, another cold front will move into north Arkansas tonight.
On Sunday, a stronger upper level wave will approach along with a cold front.
An upper level trough will slide through Western Washington today for spotty showers. High pressure aloft will build in tonight into Sunday for dry weather.
and Sunday High pressure continued to shift east of the region early this morning, as low pressure deepened over the Dakotas. Rain will taper off from west to east this evening as a cold front moves through.
/22/ Today and tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a stalled front near a line from Meridian to Natchez and a ridge extending across our northwest zones from the northeast. Temperatures will be warmer than normal again today, topping out in the lower 90s at most location but mid 90s will be reached again in east Mississippi. Normal highs run in the lower 80s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight as sights bottom out in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
In the upper levels, the ridge is weakening over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient will be over the region with high pressure centered near New England. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 The seven day forecast is largely a tale of three cold fronts. Sunday, quick moving large scale trough swings southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Ohio Valley.
332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Surface cold front pushing into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with a line of showers and storms beginning to take shape along the boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue on Sunday north of the front along with cooler temperatures.
330 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a diffuse sfc boundary/old cool front in place from low pressure over srn AL wwd to cntl LA at this time. Water vapor imagery shows ridging centered over nrn Mexico/Desert SW ridging ewd into the wrn Gulf region. Some of the high res runs hold onto a little activity after midnight in vicinity of the boundary over the nrn zones as well as the addition of some weak lift via the tail end of a passing nrn stream vort. One last day of above normal heat is forecast with temps topping out in the lower 90s.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from the Upper Midwest back through the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a leftover surface boundary from yesterday's cold front is located along the I-20 corridor from Jackson, Mississippi to Montgomery, Alabama. GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict an upper level low over North Dakota and a mid level trough over portions of the Northern and Central Plains. Short term models indicate this mid- level trough should help to push the aforementioned cold front closer to the Mid-South by Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Sunday with the best chances occurring Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds would be the primary threat if a thunderstorm can reach severe limits ahead of the cold front.
330 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Cold front associated with an apparent upper trough over the northern Plains was in southeastern portions of the local area with visible satellite imagery showing very little development along it. Dry air advection was bringing dewpoints into upper 30s and lower 40s upstream for a much cooler night tonight as winds subside under clear skies.
An area of showers associated with weak wave ahead of the cold front is currently moving across NE KS and NW MO. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of a cold front currently across central Nebraska and Kansas and move east at a good pace. Behind the cold front it will clear out with sunshine across parts of the area by afternoon and slightly cooler. Sunday clouds will increase as the main trough moves across the area, a few showers may occur mainly south of Highway 50. As the trough exits to the east Sunday evening expect clouds and rain to clear area. Showers and a few storms along and ahead of a cold front moving through the area should persist another hour or two for the KC terminals.
A frontal system may bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the area tonight into tomorrow night, before high pressure moves back into the area and leaves the early to middle portions of the work week dry. With rain and clouds overnight, low temps should be a bit warmer, generally in the mid to upper 50s.
The cooler air and some cloud cover has worked itself across northern Georgia. Rain chances will remain rather low and mainly across the higher terrain of the Plateau, southwest Virginia, the E TN mountains and southwest North Carolina. This is in response the upper level trough and associated cold front approaching the area. At the start of the period a positively tilted trough will extend from the Great Lakes through much of the central plains. Models are in decent agreement regarding the spatial and temporal placement of this trough and its associated cold front.
303 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 A few showers and storms have developed over the past hour near a cold front in central and north central Oklahoma. Overnight into Sunday morning, additional showers and storms should develop as 85H winds increase ahead of a trough to our northwest. Cooler and drier air will settle across most of the state Sunday into Sunday night as the aforementioned trough moves east of the area.
Meanwhile, cold front extends just east of the KS Turnpike. The bigger story will be a significant upper trough expected to start digging over the western CONUS Wed and swing into the Plains for Thu. This will push a very strong cold front through the area on Thu. Some timing differences are showing up between the ECMWF and GFS with the ECMWF a bit slower lifting the upper trough out compared to the GFS. A cold front will usher in much drier air and VFR as well as gusty northwest winds of 20-30 knots for the afternoon hours across central and south central KS.
1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Water vapor imagery/upper air analysis shows a compact closed upper low now pushing across the CWA into southwest North Dakota. Upper ridging sets up across the western CONUS through Sunday as dry weather continues across the region.
An upper level trough is currently located across the Plains with a cold front across eastern Kansas. As the upper level trough moves to the east, the front will lay out more from west to east across southern Missouri tonight into Sunday.
Currently have an area of low pressure centered over far northeastern MN into SE Manitoba. A strong cold front associated with this system is stretching southward across western MN and through western IA into western MO/SE KS. The drizzle should clear from the forecast area as the low clouds move out by early/mid evening. A large area of high pressure will then build into the central US through with a broad zonal flow through mid-week.
Clouds should clear by morning for sunny and warmer conditions on Sunday.
324 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 The first significant cold front of the Fall season is still on track to arrive tomorrow night.
The forecast area will remain on the front side of an upper level ridge and under a northwest flow aloft through Sunday morning. Today will be about several degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.
250 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest MN, with front well east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the eastern Dakotas, with west-northwest flow extending back to the Pacific NW. Skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy with temps mostly in the 50s and lower 60s, some 40s over the higher Black Hills. Cool and breezy weather will persist through the rest of the weekend as pressure gradient remains fairly tight between low pressure to the northeast of the region and high pressure slowly moving across the northern Rockies.
Satellite showed a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low northeast of the Bahamas which will eventually fill and move away from the area. Satellite also showed a backdoor cold front pushing southwest into Georgia and this front will stall before entering our forecast area.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Light and variable winds along with clear skies to continue overnight as surface and weak-upper level ridging prevail across the ArkLaTex. Afternoon high temperatures across the region to climb into the lower 90s.
247 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will hold widespread clouds and much cooler temperatures over the area today and tonight.
210 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Looking and feeling just like fall out there today, with quite the upper trough axis lifting north into North Dakota while a trailing cold front crossing central IA/MN as of 18Z. Plenty of rain still streaming north ahead of that upper wave/cold front, courtesy of strong warm advection ascent coupled with anomalous moisture (PWAT 1. Improvement should come everywhere this evening and tonight as much drier air works into the region and we lose the lower level cyclonic flow, though will have to watch some residual lower clouds likely clipping areas north of I-94 overnight.
Regional satellite imagery was showing a strong surface cold front pushing slowly east through eastern KS/northeastern OK. The front will bring MVFR conditions with scattered SHRA/TSRA to the higher elevations of the LZK forecast area after 06Z tonight where these conditions will then persist through the end of the TAF period. A cold front will move into north Arkansas tonight and bring rain chances to the north. Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge continues over the eastern U. with an upper trough over the Rockies. The upper trough will expand into the central sections and eventually into the east Sunday. High pressure will continue over the state today. However, another cold front will move into north Arkansas tonight.
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 An area of low pressure and upper level trough will continue exiting the region to the northeast through tonight. Dry conditions with seasonally cool temperatures on expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s, to the low 60s.
Water vapor imagery along with upper air analysis shows a weak upper level trough over south Texas and the extreme western portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Downstream of this feature remains a large and persistent upper level ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula. Further downstream a mid/upper level trough resides over the eastern Bahamas. Low levels continue to show a steady, elongated trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic extending from Bay of Campeche to the Bahamas. Satellite derived moisture products reveal a broad expanse of deep tropical moisture associated with this trough. Meanwhile, a large area of high pressure aligned over the Northeast United States extends southward down the Eastern Seaboard and across the Sunshine State.
Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over northwest SD. Water vapor loop indicated an upper low pressure system over eastern WY.
Dry conditions return to the area for Sunday as the system exits off to the east and high pressure builds over the region.
Weak high pressure over the area should keep conditions quiet this afternoon with maybe an isolated shower along the sea breeze but even that would be a stretch.
Through this afternoon, a deep low pressure trough will continue its way northeast into the Upper Midwest and out of the Northern Plains. Rain will taper off in the James River Valley by this evening with this exiting trough. A tight surface pressure gradient is maintained with the exiting trough and ample height rises to the west, which will bring another windy day.
Cold front making progress across the region, but showing signs of slowing down which was anticipated. Showers will be most concentrated near PNC through early afternoon, and then renewed more vigorous convection could occur across east-central portions of the area along the cold front. On Sunday, a stronger upper level wave will approach along with a cold front.
257 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Cold front is currently located across the Southern Panhandle and will continue to gradually move to the south this evening. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow compared to today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 84 66 78 / 10 30 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 66 76 / 10 40 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 82 64 74 / 10 50 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 78 61 75 / 10 50 30 80.
There is some decent mid-level lift noted toward sunrise till about noontime Sunday, but the lower levels are very dry and not expecting much precipitation.
The approaching cold front on Sunday will stay north of KABI through 18Z. Currently, we are sandwiched between a weak low in eastern Texas, and an approaching upper level trough from the west, with clear skies. The northern plains low will send a cold front south, which will stall just north of our area.
102 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 For today, a sunny sky with warmer high temperatures from around 60 northwest, to 60 to 65 across the south and east. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 50s northwest Sandhills to the lower 60s across the southeast.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge centered over western Mexico with the flow over Texas turning anticyclonically from westerly to northerly. There was a trough over the Rockies extending down to the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, high pressure extended over the eastern part of our CWA and winds were mainly light and variable. A cold front was pushing into the Panhandle.
Ebert Previous discussion: NE Montana will be between systems today as low pressure and upper trough moves to the east while the next system moves through the area tonight on NW flow aloft.
Prior to its arrival, deep SW flow will be in place ahead of a southeastward moving cold front.
241 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 A cold front shifting across central and southeast Illinois, will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, into tonight. This is occurring in a pre- frontal trof and area of focused 925-850mb moisture advection.
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 The cold front is pushing through the area currently and is expected to be through the entire forecast area later this afternoon or early this evening. Otherwise, just cloud cover may spread northward with cool autumn-like temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected. Models are in general agreement moving a strong storm system across the northern Plains and surging a strong cold front through the area. Showers and a few storms along and ahead of a cold front moving through the area should persist another hour or two for the KC terminals.
1126 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Dropped the Freeze Warning for COZ007 this morning as temperature observations in the area are well above freezing and no longer expect a widespread freeze. Northwest flow has setup behind the trough passage with just a few clouds favoring northern portions of the CWA. This slight disturbance will allow high temperatures on Sunday to trend down just a couple degrees cooler than today but otherwise remain unnoticeable outside of a subtle wind switch.
A Cold Front and Possible Rain. A cold front will move into West Central Texas tomorrow and bring the potential for rain, along with cooler temperatures, for mainly the Big Country. Possible Rain and Finally Turning Cooler. The potential for rain will continue into Sunday night, as this first cold front moves farther south. Then, dry conditions will dominate through mid week, before another cold front late week brings another shot of cold air, along with the potential for more rain. As an upper trough deepens, over the northwestern CONUS, another surge of cold air moves toward the south, across the Central and Southern Plains.
For Sunday, VFR conditions expected to start the day but an upper trough approaching the area late in the day will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon hours.
657 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 A cold front shifting across central and southeast Illinois, will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, into tonight. This is occurring in a pre- frontal trof and area of focused 925-850mb moisture advection.
As a result, Sunday afternoon will be slightly cooler with sunny skies and high temperatures primarily in the 50s.
1016 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 High pressure ridging into the area from the north will hold widespread clouds and much cooler temperatures over the area through tonight.
436 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest MN, with front well east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the eastern Dakotas, with west-northwest flow extending back to the Pacific NW. Skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy with temps mostly in the 50s and lower 60s, some 40s over the higher Black Hills. Cool and breezy weather will persist through the rest of the weekend as pressure gradient remains fairly tight between low pressure to the northeast of the region and high pressure slowly moving across the northern Rockies.
535 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will hold widespread clouds and much cooler temperatures over the area today and tonight.
619 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019 The cold front is pushing through the area currently and is expected to be through the entire forecast area later this afternoon or early this evening. Otherwise, just cloud cover may spread northward with cool autumn-like temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected. Models are in general agreement moving a strong storm system across the northern Plains and surging a strong cold front through the area.
An exiting upper level trough will allow scattered showers to linger into this evening. High pressure aloft will build in tonight into Sunday for dry weather.
/issued 324 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2019/ The first significant cold front of the Fall season is still on track to arrive tomorrow night.
703 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2019 High pressure ridging into the area from the north will hold widespread clouds and much cooler temperatures over the area through tonight.
A secondary trough axis will cross our region tonight into Sunday morning, shifting flow from the northwest again as the trough deepens over the Central Plains. Another clear and calm morning will result in sub-freezing temperatures for lower valleys across northeast Utah and western Colorado. A Freeze Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT, highlighting regions most prone to sub-freezing conditions. The pressure gradient will weaken from west to east as the trough progresses eastward. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and calm winds are expected as cooler air settles in behind the trough.
Meanwhile, cold front extends just east of the KS Turnpike. The bigger story will be a significant upper trough expected to start digging over the western CONUS Wed and swing into the Plains for Thu. This will push a very strong cold front through the area on Thu. Some timing differences are showing up between the ECMWF and GFS with the ECMWF a bit slower lifting the upper trough out compared to the GFS.
An approaching cold front will slide into the Abilene are (KABI) by mid afternoon and to near San Angelo (KSJT) by sunset and shift winds around to the north. A Cold Front and Possible Rain. A cold front will move into West Central Texas tomorrow and bring the potential for rain, along with cooler temperatures, for mainly the Big Country. Possible Rain and Finally Turning Cooler. The potential for rain will continue into Sunday night, as this first cold front moves farther south. Then, dry conditions will dominate through mid week, before another cold front late week brings another shot of cold air, along with the potential for more rain. As an upper trough deepens, over the northwestern CONUS, another surge of cold air moves toward the south, across the Central and Southern Plains.
However, cold front draped across sern OK into nwrn AR will continue to very slowly drift swd tonight, and may allow for a stray storm or two to make it in to McCurtain Co overnight. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Light and variable winds along with clear skies to continue overnight as surface and weak-upper level ridging prevail across the ArkLaTex. Afternoon high temperatures across the region to climb into the lower 90s.
An area of low pressure and upper level trough will continue exiting the region to the northeast through tonight. Dry conditions with seasonally cool temperatures on expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s, to the low 60s.