Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our sweltering summer simmers on as upper level ridging just does not want to go away. If anything, the upper ridge will just slowly strengthen its hold on the area this week starting Monday. This will allow for dewpoints to climb into the low 70s leading to heat indices to climb back above 100 degrees and could reach as high as 105. Upper ridging remains firmly entrenched over the area, and the associated subsidence should work to limit any afternoon convection, although with the increased moisture we could see a few sea breeze induced showers or storms down near, and just inland from, the coast.
Discussion: Ridge of high pressure is centered just to our west. This places our area on the eastern periphery of the high which yields northerly flow across our area. The northerly flow is keeping dewpoints quite low for this time of year and RH values will bottom out this afternoon in the low to upper 20s.
Upper level ridging continued to slowly push eastward overnight and was centered over the Mississippi River Valley as of 3 AM while troughing to the west was just beginning to push into the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front was pushing eastward through the Dakotas and helping to trigger scattered showers and storms, a few of which were severe. We'll remain on the western periphery of the upper level ridge today with strong southerly flow continuing to usher in the warm, moist air we've been seeing the last several days. Attention then turns to potential storm development late this afternoon into this evening as the aforementioned trough and cold front approach the area. The cold front will be farther southeast on Tuesday and lead to another similar severe weather threat.
Evening update: There is enough forcing in the clutter on the west side of the deep trof over the area to keep some pops for a mention of showers continuing overnight, however the thunder wording has been removed.
336 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure moves east across the area today as a warm front lifts northeast across the area through tonight.
Early afternoon temperatures were in the low to mid 80s. Expect near normal lows in the lower 60s. Ridging begins to break down at the beginning of the period as MCS track moves into the area. Boundary separating the high PWAT Gulf of Mexico moisture will be in the area and will help to lead to cooler days and some warm moist days depending on which side of the boundary we are on for the rest of the period. Discussion: High amplitude ridge will start the period on Tuesday. As the ridge breaks down that day, a cold front will sag south into the area. This will drive the dewpoints and thus the low temperatures each evening. The NBM is the highest of all guidance.
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 An upper trough will advance slowly east across the Great Basin tonight through Monday. A cold front will move into the northwest during the day. Then, near and behind the advancing cold front late Monday afternoon and evening. Activity will diminish by late evening as the cold front advances through the forecast area. A dry and warm day expected, with highs from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday from around 80 far northwest, to the upper 80s far southeast.
309 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Today through tonight: A subtropical high will strengthen and remain centered over the lower/mid MS Valley region in the near term. In terms of convective rainfall coverage, the warm air aloft will preclude deep convection for the most part, but a coastal convergence zone enhanced by the sea breeze should be sufficient to initiate and bring a few storms into the lower Pine Belt region during the mid/late afternoon. /EC/ Tuesday through Monday: Summer is definitely here and we have the temps to prove it! Strong high pressure (595-596dm) along with strong mid and upper level ridging will keep the ArkLaMiss dry through the much of the week. Temperatures are expected to rise to the upper 90s to the low 100s most days through the next work week.
Yes, spring comes to an end in about 24 hours and while we'll be a little warmer today, we're only going to be running a couple of degrees above normal with continued dry air in place. On Tuesday, look for the upper ridge currently situated to our west to start exerting itself over the region again. This will push temperature a few degrees warmer than today. However, without much of southerly boundary layer push, dew points should remain in the low to mid 60s, so it'll be hot again, but it shouldn't be as oppressive as last week.
Upper ridge located over the Ozarks and the Mississippi valley will gradually break down over the next day or two. As the ridge breaks down, low level moisture transport looks to increase across western KS today, with convection expected to develop over NW KS by this afternoon/evening. With the increasing low level flow, expect slightly warmer temperatures today, with some locations west of I-135 climbing into the upper 90s to near 100.
The region is currently between upper level ridging to the east and a trough over the Rockies. The Coteau region will see slightly cooler heat indices. The precipitation exits the area by midnight or so, with the overnight hours and Tuesday looking dry as high pressure moves in behind the exiting front. This will also finally break the period of extreme temperatures, with cooler and less humid air expected on Tuesday.
148 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure builds in from the northwest through Monday, then becomes centered off the Southeast coast Tuesday. A trough of low pressure develops along the coast Tuesday night.
1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A ridge is in place from central Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the Northeast and another one over Great Basin/Rockies. Water vapor shows a subtle feature over the moisture axis on the back side of the ridge working north into western Kansas; this has led to some scattered showers and storms in southwest Kansas. With the ridge in place, above normal temperatures persist across Kansas by around five degrees with values in the 90s.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered northeast of the region will continue to influence S TX weather, with above normal highs and humid conditions. Models show a weak mid level short wave tracking west around the southern periphery of the high Monday. The combination of these features are conducive for convective development on Monday but the high pressure should keep the convection isolated.
Deep layer ridging will continue to be in place across much of the region today and tomorrow. The center of the low level high pressure will generally be over the Gulf States for the beginning of the work- week, which will lead to mostly clear skies and rain-free conditions for Central AL. Diurnal temperatures will gradually increase compared to yesterday with highs today in the low to mid 90s and then mid to upper 90s on Tuesday. With dewpoints in the low to mid 60s both today and tomorrow, heat indices should remain below 100 degrees area-wide.
EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
Attention then turns to the chance of more thunderstorms today as an upper trough moves across the Northern Plains. A frontal boundary looks to stall in the eastern part of the forecast area before getting pushed east later this afternoon / evening as the trough swings through the area. The H5 trough continues to exerts its influence on Tuesday before heights build again for the middle of the week.
(Today) The surface map indicates high pressure has now shifted into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. This is maintaining a drier and cooler airmass this morning. The high will allow flow to remain light easterly today. Forecast highs in the lower 90s looks on target (middle to upper atop the higher plateau locations). The northern extent of this may bring slightly higher dew points in the lower 60s into north AL this afternoon with maybe a few cumulus developing, but still tolerable.
326 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Sunny and hot conditions are in store for the beginning of the work week as the upper-level ridge axis becomes centered directly overhead. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s area wide with even warmer temperatures in the upper 90s expected on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and bring some relief in addition to shower and thunderstorm chances.
322 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A mostly dry warm front today and tonight, with heat returning Tuesday.
344 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Drier air moves in today with moderating temperatures expected as ridging builds into the eastern United States.
and Tuesday A strong upper ridge from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Wisconsin will move slowly east today through Tuesday. High humidity and a steady south wind will keep low temperatures mostly in the 70s overnight, except for cooler values near the lakeshore. The heat and humidity will shift to Eastern Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon as the upper ridge axis shifts east and a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but warm air aloft and a lack of Gulf moisture will probably keep any activity isolated or widely scattered.
609 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Today and tonight) A large upper level high, currently centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, will remain in place today and tonight. With a bit of strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs today are expected to be at or slightly hotter than yesterday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
(Rest of Today) High pressure overhead continues today allowing for a hot, but not that humid day across the Tennessee Valley.
Weak ridging will make for mostly dry conditions today.
Moisture wrapping around a mid-level closed low over southwest Montana will provide a focus for precipitation today. Snow levels drop to 6000 feet this morning with several inches of snow across the higher elevations of Lemhi County and Southwest Montana. A few showers will remain on Tuesday with a baggy trough in place but daytime temperatures return to seasonable levels.
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Aviation --Early Monday Morning showers possible-- Moisture streaming southward on the eastward side of a building ridge continues to dissipate as showers move into the dry, stable air of Central and Southwest Michigan. -- Warm and Dry through the week -- The upper level ridge will continue to move over the region through Tuesday bringing a dry and hot air mass over the region.
/Issued 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ /Through Monday night/ The center of upper level high pressure will remain across the Lower Mississippi Valley region though Monday night keeping North and Central Texas with hot, humid, and relatively quiet weather. /NEW/ /Tuesday Through the End of the Month/ As a mid-latitude trough emerges from the Rockies and ejects into the Northern Plains today, the subtropical ridge that has been displaced to our east will deamplify and pivot clockwise. The ridge will remain anchored overhead for the remainder of the week, and triple-digit temperatures will become more prevalent as a result.
606 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Sunny and hot conditions are in store for the beginning of the work week as the upper-level ridge axis becomes centered directly overhead. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s area wide with even warmer temperatures in the upper 90s expected on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and bring some relief in addition to shower and thunderstorm chances.
Freezing temperatures early this morning in many valley locations.
Ridging positioned over the Four Corners allows monsoonal flow to kick up some showers and storms with daytime heating convection into the second half of the week. Signals of low pressure drawing up the southern Pacific coast late week gives hints at more shower/storm activity. Today will provide us with some clouds and seasonable temperatures as the weekend trough lingers over the Great Basin. This sets us up for the rest of the week as the ridge returns to take control of our weather pattern.
735 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
514 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A mostly dry warm front today and tonight, with heat returning Tuesday.
/issued 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ Current temperatures are running 2-4 degrees cooler than last night but range considerably, from the middle 50s near the Tennessee river to the low 70s at Memphis and Oxford. Some guidance hints at the possibility of a weak front stalling near the Tennessee Kentucky state line midweek resulting is a chance of rain, but given the strength of the ridge, this scenario seems unlikely.
Despite these features, the pressure gradient in our area is fairly slack as the high cell to the north has not quite reached our area so far. Short Term Update - Through this afternoon and into tonight, the area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sean will shift further westward into the Bay of Campeche while the high to our north will continue to spread southeastward and southward. Daytime heating may allow a broken cloud line to form along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon, resulting in a chance for vicinity showers. There were no tropical cyclones in the area.
/DL/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A subtropical high will strengthen and remain centered over the lower/mid MS Valley region in the near term. In terms of convective rainfall coverage, the warm air aloft will preclude deep convection for the most part, but a coastal convergence zone enhanced by the sea breeze should be sufficient to initiate and bring a few storms into the lower Pine Belt region during the mid/late afternoon. /EC/ Tuesday through Monday: Summer is definitely here and we have the temps to prove it! Strong high pressure (595-596dm) along with strong mid and upper level ridging will keep the ArkLaMiss dry through the much of the week. Temperatures are expected to rise to the upper 90s to the low 100s most days through the next work week.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday night/ The center of upper level high pressure will remain across the Lower Mississippi Valley region though Monday night keeping North and Central Texas with hot, humid, and relatively quiet weather. /Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ /Tuesday Through the End of the Month/ As a mid-latitude trough emerges from the Rockies and ejects into the Northern Plains today, the subtropical ridge that has been displaced to our east will deamplify and pivot clockwise. The ridge will remain anchored overhead for the remainder of the week, and triple-digit temperatures will become more prevalent as a result.
Feeling HOT HOT HOT for sure for these next couple of days across Southeast TX as the persistent mid to upper level high pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern. The high temperatures for today and Tuesday will be similar to yesterday's as the onshore flow continues and 500MB pattern remains pretty much unchanged with heights around 592-594 dam.
519 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain in control of the region through today providing seasonable temperatures for mid-June.
500 mb high pressure centered over Arkansas and extended over the BRO CWFA, coupled with a relatively dry atmosphere, will produce rain-free conditions for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight.
644 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will persist today.
937 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
547 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low humidity.
Additional storm chances are possible later this week into the weekend with temperatures cooler than Monday, but still above average. Skies are mostly clear this morning with temperatures still in the 70s and even 80s for most locations (except cooler near Lake Superior). These warm nighttime temperatures are being fueled by deep ridging over the region with warm and moist south to southwesterly flow aloft. The ridge will gradually continue east today, placing the Northland right within the warmest part of the airmass. Temperatures will be a bit cooler along the North Shore, but even there, highs in the 80s and heat index values up into the 90s are likely except perhaps along the immediate waterfront.
533 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today as the upper trough continues to advance eastward. Showers will lift north on Tuesday with warmer and drier weather expected midweek. By the end of the week the next trough will slide out of BC, across the Canadian Rockies, with another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
920 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low humidity.
358 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper level trough over the Great Basin will lift north of Colorado today. Can't rule a shower or storm over the far northeast corner this evening as the cold front pushes through, otherwise the area will be rain free. Dry cooler air behind the cold front will bring a cool night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. This pattern is due to the upper level trough axis pushing northward.
Behind this system, warmer air will gradually move into the area, resulting in a warming trend through midweek.
446 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, centered over the mid-west/great lakes region. Upper trough is currently moving over The Rockies, and southwest flow sits aloft the FA. A surface cold front has made its way through the area this morning, and we will see cooler temperatures to start the work week.
The trough passing through the region to our north will lift into the northern plains and southern Canada over the next 24 hrs. After unseasonably deep early season moisture late last week, we've seen considerable drying from the west under the trough, with much of the gulf moisture shunted east and southeast.
719 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Today) The surface map indicates high pressure has now shifted into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. This is maintaining a drier and cooler airmass this morning. The high will allow flow to remain light easterly today. Forecast highs in the lower 90s looks on target (middle to upper atop the higher plateau locations). The northern extent of this may bring slightly higher dew points in the lower 60s into north AL this afternoon with maybe a few cumulus developing, but still tolerable.
354 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 With the trough axis sweeping to the east today, most of the thunderstorm energy will remain off to the north and east through the afternoon. The trough pushed through a cold front a few hours ago, so the cold pool behind it will be settling across the state, keeping temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for the last day of Spring, with the NW higher elevations struggling to get into the 40s. The trough sweep into the Northern Plains quickly tonight into Tuesday, with general westerly flow aloft setting up.
Highs will range from 87-88 along the coast to the lower 90s from Orlando westward and along the Kissimmee River basin.
315 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Water vapor imagery showing a deep upper trough over northeast Idaho with a strong upper ridge over the southern Plains. Energy spinning off of the low with a deep southerly moisture feed caused all the convection yesterday. The upper low has moved farther east today and this will take the deep moisture flow into the far eastern parts of Wyoming and Montana and the much of the northern Plains. This points to the highest cape (500-1000j/kg) over the east. The upper trough lifts across the forecast area tonight and weakens. Today and Tuesday will be cool with highs in the lower 70s.
512 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 With the trough axis sweeping to the east today, most of the thunderstorm energy will remain off to the north and east through the afternoon. The trough pushed through a cold front a few hours ago, so the cold pool behind it will be settling across the state, keeping temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for the last day of Spring, with the NW higher elevations struggling to get into the 40s. The trough sweep into the Northern Plains quickly tonight into Tuesday, with general westerly flow aloft setting up.
652 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low humidity.
426 AM PDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure aloft will bring warming today and continuing into Tuesday for the mountains and deserts.
534 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper level trough over the Great Basin will lift north of Colorado today. Can't rule a shower or storm over the far northeast corner this evening as the cold front pushes through, otherwise the area will be rain free. Dry cooler air behind the cold front will bring a cool night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. This pattern is due to the upper level trough axis pushing northward.
Accumulating snow is expected on the highest peaks of southwest Montana. Behind this system, warmer air will gradually move into the area, resulting in a warming trend through midweek.
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Upper level ridging will stay centered over the Mississippi Valley into tonight before gradually starting to slide westward throughout Tuesday towards the Texarkana region. For the surface, broad high pressure continues to stretch from the southeast CONUS into eastern Texas. Temperatures remain persistent with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s for portions of the Hill Country to as high as 102 elsewhere while overnight lows generally bottom out in the low to mid 70s. Diurnal mixing will allow for the low clouds to mix out or see ceilings at least lift to where some fair weather cumulus will be possible. Today compared to Tuesday looks to be the slightly more favored as Tuesday could start to see increased subsidence with the upper level ridge sliding westward.
922 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 After a beautiful cool morning across Middle Tennessee, the heat unfortunately returns this afternoon as an upper ridge builds over the state. Yes, spring comes to an end in about 24 hours and while we'll be a little warmer today, we're only going to be running a couple of degrees above normal with continued dry air in place. On Tuesday, look for the upper ridge currently situated to our west to start exerting itself over the region again. This will push temperature a few degrees warmer than today. However, without much of southerly boundary layer push, dew points should remain in the low to mid 60s, so it'll be hot again, but it shouldn't be as oppressive as last week.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The heat has officially returned today with temperatures currently in the low 80s on the Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. However, it continues to be unusually dry in the low levels with dewpoints only in the 40s to low 50s, which is creating very low RH values down into the teens. With the airmass so hot and dry, heat index values are below the actual temperatures, aka it feels cooler than reality. H5 ridge centered near Memphis will begin strengthening and expanding tomorrow with heights rising aloft over Middle Tennessee, so Tuesday is expected to be several degrees warmer than today with highs around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s everywhere else.