Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS WELL. BY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DIVES INTO THE MAIN TROUGH.
1131 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFF THE COAST NEAR PSX AND GLS AT 1720Z. LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH HOUSTON OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY 18-19Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR SO EXPECT ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPS ARE DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S/UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EVEN COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND.
-HOWERTON UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO ABOUND THIS PERIOD DESPITE RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT. BY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DIVES INTO THE MAIN TROUGH.
SUNNY SKIES ABOUND AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ON THRU SUNDAY. MODELS SHIFT BROAD H5 RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST COAST REGION. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ON WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE THE CWA ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS EFFECT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THOUGH AS THE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE SNOWPACK TO MELT UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
216 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLDER AIR MASS MOVED IN BEHIND A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR A KTCL-KBHM LINE BY 22Z AND KMGM-KAUO BY 02Z.
305 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
WARMER WITH WET WEATHER RETURNING BY THANKSGIVING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN WL PULSE UP A BIT MORE AS SHRTWV ROTATES THROUGH LNGWV TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH SHARPENING RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AND STG TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BUT SINCE THE IL CYCLONE IS WEAKER AND PASSING FARTHER S THAN ANTICIPATED. SHARPENING UPR TROF THAT WL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN COULD ALSO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS WAS OCCURRING IN NRN MN AND ND EARLY THIS MORNING.
1132 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rain, mixing at times with snow, will taper off across western MO over the next few hours and across central MO through sunrise as a cold front pushes into southern and eastern MO. Clouds will stick around through the morning then rapidly clear from west to east as high pressure quickly builds in from the west. Despite the afternoon sun, cold air advection through the day will keep temperatures in the 30s, with parts of northern MO staying below freezing for the entire day. Low-level ridge axis will pass to our east tonight allowing winds to return from the south after midnight.
/issued 515 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ Strong cold front bringing windy conditions to West Central Texas terminals today. Cold front has reached a line from San Angelo to Brownwood at 330 AM, with wind speeds having gusted to over 40 mph at all of the Big Country locations and as far south behind the front as Sterling City.
THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. AREA REMAINS IN SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER JET AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING CONTINUE/STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SO TEMPERATURES WARMER AND MORE UNIFORM.
305 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 STRONG CAA CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NWD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
238 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
DISCUSSION COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR NORTHERN TAF'S SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
344 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR NEW IBERIA/MORGAN CITY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 45 27 51 / 30 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 42 23 47 / 60 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 36 43 23 47 / 60 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 40 20 42 / 60 10 0 0.
249 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN NW MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN KY ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. COLD AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LOBE OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUNDAY.
231 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SO SNOW CHANCES VERY IFFY AND IF ANYTHING WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
314 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAINLY NUISANCE ITEMS DURING THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
250 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN IN COMING COLD FRONT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH IT MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST IMPEDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL INDICATE COLDER AIR MOVING IN QUICK ENOUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO THE AREA.
425 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
1157 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 The initial wind shift associated with a strong cold front passed through the Springfield area shorty after 2 AM this morning. As high pressure begins to influence the area, winds will decrease, with light and variable conditions expected overnight. A bit of passing high cloud cover may keep readings just a hair warmer over central Missouri, with lows in the mid 20s.
953 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2015 Showery conditions will persist today before a weekend storm brings snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of central Washington. Expect these to increase in coverage today over the higher terrain as orographic lift acts on an unstable air mass. The low will weaken as it moves east but should bring some precip to the Inland Northwest tonight, mainly for the southern zones as the low tracks along the WA/OR border.
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Deep layer high pressure centered east of the area will keep the area rain-free through tonight.
308 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS THICK TODAY. THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THESE STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL SPREAD ITS IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A MARKED INCREASE IN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A 160KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY SUFFER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER CAPPING.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES THRU SATURDAY AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CTRL/SRN ROCKIES. A LITTLE WARMER INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHILE SHIFTING EAST. LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED INLAND WHILE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE COAST COOLER IN THE MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUN THEN SUN NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
1235 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STIRRING AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY TO HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GOM AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH FURTHER WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. LOWS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRI NIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW WHICH LIFTS RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
1154 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THIS WEEKEND AS QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME IS INTERRUPTED BY A DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. THAT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONG 170+ KT JET DIVING SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING IT OUT ALONG ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AT MID DAY SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH OF CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE AMERICA.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING. APPEARS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AND HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
/ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ A SECONDARY WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE LOW 50S TO THE LOW 60S. AS A POINT OF REFERENCE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. BASE OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENS AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY SAT AFTERNOON.
THE ORIGINAL PACIFIC UPPER LOW. AND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
1157 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS IOWA WITH BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY LATE IN THE DAY A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE COOLER.
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN OUR SW/NW COUNTIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH TO DEVELOP IN THOSE LOCATIONS. RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON (ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL).
1024 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION WHICH HAS KEPT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING ALONG THE HI-LINE EAST OF I-15. BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND A BIT LONGER. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT.
253 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 SKIES AND PRECIPITATION HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SET IN. WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. NO COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
401 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION ON THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER OVER THE REGION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.
135 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS A BIT CLOSER WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN WRN IDAHO THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS IDAHO. BUT THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH AND PCPN ON THE OREGON COAST SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC JUST OFF ASTORIA/OR. THE LOW IS THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
322 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 AN STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC TO OUR NORTH IS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE U. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 12Z MOS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HITTING THE LOW CEILINGS ESPECIALLY HARD IN THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES AOB A MILE IN FOG. METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP (BUILDING RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WAA) FAVORS LOW CLOUDS VERSUS DENSE FOG.
238 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THERE IS STILL DECENT QG FORCING AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS COLORADO BUT THE HIGHEST QG NUMBER EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF WILL USHER IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA.
410 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
SFC FRONT PROGGD TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF WI AND EXTEND SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. ORIENTATION OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS SUGGEST WARMEST TEMPS IN SRN CWA AND SOMEWHAT COOLER IN THE NORTH.
101 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 50S. WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KCHA FOR IFR CONDITIONS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS WITH THE COVERAGE NOT BEING TOO IMPRESSIVE.
AIDING IN FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
Models keep warm sector and surface cyclone just SE of Barber county, keeping some marginal hail the primary threat from any convection in our CWA.
324 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE CO-LOCATED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S KEEPING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FLOOR QUITE HIGH HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TAX CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE TO THE NORTH.
349 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
1124 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 532 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ 12Z TAF CYCLE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NM ON SATURDAY.
HAVE MADE A FORECAST UPDATE TO BOOST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF A MEAN WEST COAST TROUGH HAS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
1010 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION WHICH HAS KEPT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING ALONG THE HI-LINE EAST OF I-15. BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND A BIT LONGER. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA, WILL GRADUALLY END BY 18Z.
1154 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR RESULTED IN SOME DRIZZLE AND LOW ACROSS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
Depending on whether or not the low clouds linger, CAPE values are more uncertain. Tomorrow will be cooler than today, and highs will be dependent on the amount of sun we can get. (Saturday night through next Friday) Rain chances will quickly diminish from west to east Saturday night, as a Pacific cold front overtakes a dryline as it sweeps east. However, given the low-level helicity values, some transient low-level rotation may occur with an attendant isolated/brief tornado threat.
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND MAY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION. AS THE UPPER LIFT AND COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD.
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN BE SEE AT AROUND 700MB AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS WARMER. THE RIDGE WILL PHASE BACK IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL DOMINATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY.
ALOFT - A LOW WAS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A SECOND LOW ALONG THE ND/MANITOBA LINE. BOTH EMBEDDED IN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE WAS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SURFACE - THE REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW WAS ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER AND TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OUT OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THU AS THE SECOND UPPER LOW MERGES INTO IT. KEEPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES. CANADAIN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND NOSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE THE COLD FRONT EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES STABLE DRY AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN.
1149 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Band of snow on the nw side of an upper level low over ne AR extends from the St. The band is associated with a trowal and deformation zone feature wrapping around the upper low. Accumulation has been more efficient in the higher elevation terrain where sfc temps have been just a bit colder.
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHT. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE DURING THE DAY AND BRING SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
113 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE CWA. AS BETTER DYNAMICS MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER 40S.
THE BROAD 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARDS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD IN PLACE OVER THE U. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. BUT AN ISOLD NEAR FREEZING TEMP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES.