Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
346 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Tonight through Sunday: Surface ridging continues to be over the region, leading to a warm afternoon as low level boundary layer temperatures are slowly on the rise as warm air advection slowly moves into the area. One thing of note is how well we have mixed with dewpoints falling into the low-mid teens. This will keep lows up somewhat in the west back closer to freezing while areas in the east could still fall into the upper 20s.
Winds will pick up from the south and southwest and become gusty across some of the higher elevations, but are expected to remain below advisory criteria through Sunday.
Sunday will see a weak ridge become zonal flow for a mostly dry day.
High pressure over the area has brought clear skies and calm winds to much of central Kentucky early this morning. The high pressure will drift across the Lower Ohio Valley today and move east of the region tonight. Highs today will be a bit warmer than yesterday, up into the lower to mid 30s. As the high pressure shifts eastward tonight, return southerly flow will begin to set up. For Sunday, a low pressure system will begin to move from the Plains into the upper Midwest. Given this slower trend, there will be enough time for temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 40s before the precipitation begins. Thus, will take out any mention of snow or freezing precipitation on Sunday.
Expect isentropic lift/coastal trough to contribute to patchy light rain/isolated showers over the ERN CWA/MSA Tonight through early Sunday.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 mb), Latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm continues to depict an expansive broad low amplitude long wave polar trough presently encompassing the entire CONUS. Well to the south of that, the main axis of a deep and warm anticyclone is positioned across the North Central Caribbean Sea, or just to the south of Puerto Rico to Jamaica.
Still expecting a general 1 to 5 inches across the CWA, ranging from the low end amounts near the Missouri River, to the high end totals across northeast/east central SD into west central MN.
A weak low pressure system to our north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of rain showers to the area on Sunday. Operational models and ensemble means agree in developing a long wave trough over the western U.
Much warmer air made it into the Black Hills with temps in the 30s to near 40. or even slowly rise overnight as warmer air to the south continues to work its way into the area. Drier weather is expected Sunday on the backside of the departing wave as high pressure builds in. Temps will be warmer tomorrow but still below seasonal averages.
Under mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Showers to increase in coverage across the region on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front across the Red River valley.
anticipate an early low temp with near steady or even slight rise in mercury as the lower trop warm advection kicks in more earnestly with time. It takes awhile for the column to saturate thru the 20+ F dew point depressions in the lower trop, so not much if any pcpn is anticipated thru tmrw morning (will let collab play that out on particulars). Upper dynamical energy will organize and propel a cold front from west to east across the FA during the overnight hours.
With low clouds expected to remain and/or fill back in overnight, Sunday morning's lows will be warmer than normal, mainly in the 40s.
Regardless of an intensifying upper level jet across the region, a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will preclude any precip chances through Sunday night. Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight as a prevailing low level southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas with H85 temperatures climbing by at least 5C to 8C. This will briefly halt a short-lived warm up to the region as cooler air spills into the high plains lowering H85 temperatures back down into the single digits(C). Cooler temperatures overall are expected Sunday in association with a fropa.
303 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 The high pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will shift east to along the eastern seaboard tonight. The ridge will still extend southwest into GA and southern AL. Above the weak inversion, a few spots could stay around 30 degrees on the ridge tops. Forecast soundings and MOS values suggest daytime maxes should reach back into the lower to middle 50s as a result. It's associated low will move track across the western and central Great Lakes region, while the cold front drops into a northeast-southwest position across the upper Ohio and lower TN valleys, just northwest of our forecast area by late Sunday Night.
Still expect a decent warm up tomorrow as low level SW flow continues ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should make it into NW OK by mid day.
Weak cold front now passing through our CWA from wnw to ese. The cold front will bring cooling to higher elevations but slight warming at low elevations as it scours out colder air trapped in the lowest valleys.
Latest global model output continues to be in outstanding agreement that the Desert Southwest will remain in dry northwesterly flow/flat ridging aloft as a very cold long-wave upper trof digs southward into the north- central US.
The snow will transition to a wintry mix and then rain Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts northeast acrossthe area.
Otherwise, expect a breezy day with somewhat warmer temperatures than yesterday. Otherwise, much warmer day expected on Sunday with temps approaching 70 degrees along the Red River south into north Texas with 50s and 60s elsewhere.
341 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley which is providing an erly low-level flow over the ern 1/2 of the forecast area. As a result overnight temps will be considerable warmer across the swrn 1/3 of the area. some 15 degrees warmer across coastal sern TX. but still 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.
/issued 350 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/ First off, we are seeing some freezing fog develop in the Pecos River Valley west to the Marfa Plateau. There could be a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses, but the fog should dissipate by mid-morning.
While the arctic airmass has been dislodged, extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures in check today with readings only forecast to edge close to the freezing mark in Nebraska, with some mid 30s possible in north central Kansas. Along the edge of the low cloud cover, the potential exists for fog development along our western zones. This trof will arrive here Fri or Fri night. Return flow will develop Sun night into Mon as the high heads E into the Midwest. the next arctic cold front will be surging S. Newly formed low pres is then fcst to eject into the Srn Plains Fri with an inverted trof extending N into KS/Neb. As this low heads NE toward the OH valley. The highest confidence portion of the fcst is more bitter cold. and then becoming gusty and northwesterly behind a cold front tomorrow.
High pressure will be North/Northeast of the region through Sunday. A coastal trough is expected to develop in the onshore flow pattern Tonight. This coastal trough is then expected to move ashore during the day on Sunday.
Will go with forecast highs in the lower to middle 40s given present conditions and a transition from weak cold advection this morning to weak warm advection this afternoon. This should keep mrng lows on Sunday a little warmer than this mrng, mainly in the mid to upper 20s.
/issued 357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Early morning surface analysis showed an Arctic pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley, extending into the Midsouth. Southeasterly low level flow will develop over the Midsouth, behind the departing pressure ridge. Low level modified maritime air will enter the delta area tonight and Sunday, ahead of approaching Pacific cold front.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. Some morning low clouds and freezing fog will be possible across far western Kansas. To the northeast, linger clouds and cooler 850-hPa temperatures will result in cooler highs. Cooler temperatures overall are expected Sunday in association with a fropa.
Temperatures will rise into the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures over the Nature Coast. nearer the high pressure center.
Temperatures will be much warmer tonight due to cloud cover and the increase in low level moisture, with overnight lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Southwest winds combined with 850mb warm advection will push temperatures well above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 70s.
1209 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 VFR mid-deck will continue to spread ewd today, as moisture continues to increase in response to low pressure in the Southern Plains.
Elongated upper level trough remains positioned east to west from southern Idaho into southern Oregon today. North to northwest flow aloft continues through tonight as a weak upper trough axis passes through. Temps will drop a little each day for most folks, with very few areas getting above freezing either day.
Rain will move in overnight as a cold front moves through quickly. An upper level low lies over the central Rockies with an associated jet stretching from the southern Rockies into the central Plains. To its east, we see mostly zonal flow aloft of the local area with weak upper level ridging over the southeastern US. This pattern will shift eastward today, with the low over the Rockies lifting into the central Plains by this evening, developing our next cold front at the lower levels. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s.
134 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Cold front is just now entering West Tennessee, with only isolated light showers having occurred in Middle Tennessee thus far. Existing showers do appear to be lined up along a developing pre- frontal trough that will intensify over the next few hours, with showers increasing east of Nashville later this afternoon and evening.
south of I-20 as a cold front moves through. /issued 408 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Cool, dry air will move in behind a cold front this morning. Went a couple degrees cooler. toward cooler GFS MOS and NAM MOS temperatures versus the AllBlend.
This appears to be virga associated with an upper level trough moving across the CONUS, as no sites have yet to report precip. a cold front continues to move through the region and is currently located along a line from Cameron to Athens. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front and much cooler air will filter in through the morning. Highs today will be in the 50s and 60s which is around 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper pattern really remains rather benign through the next 5-6 days featuring a large trough over the eastern U.
/Issued 253 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Flow aloft will transition from southwest to northwest today as positively-tilted trof axis pulls east from the area. Next trof takes shape from Quebec to the Great Basin by midday Thursday.
A cold front crossing tonight will bring colder temperatures and snow showers Thursday through the weekend. Main band of showers is well ahead of the cold front, now in Indiana. Mid level trough will begin more significant cold advection Thursday morning with rain showers changing to snow showers, especially in the afternoon.
305 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Temperatures are much closer to normal Today in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area last night. The trend of near normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as a northwesterly flow aloft develops with a ridge building over the western United States.
A cold front will bring scattered rain showers to the area today. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds will be breezy today and help bump temps into the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon. Tonight expect the cold front to pass through during the evening hours with gusty westerly winds following for the rest of the overnight hours.
407 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure will move across lower Michigan and to Ontario this evening. taking a cold front across the region. This cold front will return us to readings that are much more seasonable. A series of troughs will rotate across the Great Lakes through the weekend. Cold front will be crossing the area this evening and may bring a few more isolated/scattered rain showers across the area. but likely not hit the freezing mark just yet. Precipitation looks to be widespread on Thursday as the first in a series of troughs rotate across the area. Definitely bought the snow in by the time the lower level winds veer to the west-northwest.
A cold front will move through between 06-12Z, shifting winds to a more westerly direction and ending precip.
/Issued 250 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017/ The main concern is a cold front over the mid U.
248 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front will bring showers tonight, followed by colder temperatures and snow showers Thursday afternoon through the weekend. Main band of showers is still well ahead of the cold front, now approaching western Ohio. The front will cross the region overnight with showers, but main cold advection will lag the front as mid level trough follows. Mid level trough will begin more significant cold advection Thursday morning with rain showers changing to snow showers, especially in the afternoon. For the I-80 corridor and the ridges expect a light accumulation by evening, with a coating of snow possible in the afternoon elsewhere.
Strong high pressure aloft will lock in over the west coast states for late in the week, then expand east across the western states this weekend. A longwave trough encompasses much of the CONUS this morning, with several embedded features rotating through the larger scale flow. Mid level ridging is then forecast to expand inland, and maintain a dry northerly flow into the upcoming weekend.
Early Wednesday morning, the strong upper low appeared to be split into two main circulations in WV imagery. Cold advection was ongoing across the forecast area with west to northwest winds but the relatively deep mixing was keeping temperatures a bit warmer in the low to mid 30s. Quiet weather persists through the remainder of the week into the next as a blocking, upper ridge strengthens across the central and northern plains.
1133 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 WV imagery this morning strong upper low situated over cntrl neb with a sfc reflection centered over nrn MO.
Scattered light showers are expected to continue ahead of a cold front which is currently located in eastern Arkansas. HRRR shows the cold front clearing Clarksville before 00z but not quite Nashville. A cold front will sweep across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Behind the cold front winds will shift to the west.
248 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Surface pressure ridge to migrate across the forecast area tonight, exiting to the east Thursday morning. It will be replaced by a lee trough along the New Mexico state line. With the development of the lee trough winds on the Caprock will come around to the west while off the Cap winds should stay backed toward south and southeast.
Since we did not quite make it to the high temperatures the daytime guidance was indicating plus the much drier air coming in, chose to lower the mins a little from the previous forecast. Highly amplified pattern over the weekend with a ridge in the west and trough in the east will put the local area under northwest flow. The pattern flattens by the end of the period with a disturbance in central Canada, but will still be under the influence of a ridge over the desert southwest.
Cold front trailing precip across the southeast, with temperatures in the upper 40s/lower 50s keeping the precip to rain along and south of I-70. Precip on the north and west side of the low center producing some snow. For today low will pass from west central IL into northeast IL dragging a cold front into the area bringing a decrease in temperatures for afternoon after early day highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the area and upper 40s to mid 50s east of I-57. Extensive cloud cover will move back over the area behind the cold front along with brisk WSW winds 15-20 mph gusting 25 to 30. Late afternoon to overnight an upper trough will swing across the area bringing chances for precipitation into the area spreading from NW to SE until early morning.
As of 10 am CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 50s with lows in the 40s behind the cold front. Today we will see a cold front move through the region, this will bring a chance of rain to most of the Mid-South. The upper low slowly moves off to the north and east and the area is left on the back side of the trough for the rest of the week.
459 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Late this afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery indicates a well defined high pressure ridge, sitting stagnant over the eastern Gulf and Florida. This dry ridge is responsible for the clear skies, light winds, and lower humidity experienced this afternoon. High temperatures are topping out in the low 80s for the interior and near 80 along the coastal regions.
314 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes tonight, bringing a return to more winter like weather through much of the period.
307 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the closed mid- level cyclone was currently rotating through southern IA this afternoon.
Local 88Ds show scattered light showers along/ahead of a cold front crossing the nwrn zones at this time. /issued 948 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ A cold front as of 25/15Z was just entering the northwest corner of the forecast area and located from KRSN to in between KLFK- KJAS to in between KCXO-KIAH. /issued 445 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Temperatures are ranging from the teens over the upper plain states to the lower 70s along the central Texas coast. Southerly winds has raised our dew points allowing the temperatures to hold in the lower 60s. This cold front is expected to bring a brief chance for some showers ahead of the front. High pressure anchored over the central Rockies will ridge down into the region.
Widespread stratus and patchy fog/freezing fog will persist over the Columbia Basin and surrounding areas. Areas of freezing fog are occurring in the Yakima and Kittitas Valleys and Foothills of the Blues where the stratus deck intersects with the surface, mainly above 1200 ft MSL. A Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas until 1 PM.
/issued 446 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ The cold front is arriving this morning in NE TX and SW AR with NW surface winds from Tyler to De Queen now.
Scattered light showers are expected to continue ahead of a cold front which is currently located in eastern Arkansas. HRRR shows the cold front clearing Clarksville before 00z but not quite Nashville. MVFR cigs and scattered light showers will spread from west to east through the day with approach of a cold front.
254 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Today temperatures will be in the lower 70s south of I-20 while areas north of I-20 will range from the mid to low 60s. Tonight the cold front will move east of the area followed by clearing skies starting from east Texas, southern Oklahoma and central Louisiana. Thursday, will be cooler with high temperatures in the mid to lower 50s across the Ark-La-Tex, along with northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Minor update to adjust weather to adjust the freezing drizzle that was added this morning. Freezing drizzle has ended here at the office, but there is likely some still ongoing in parts of northwest Wisconsin per mPING reports this morning. The focus for today into Thursday will be the potential for light snow from the low pressure system moving south of the region, followed by the potential for lake effect snow as the system moves away from the region. Expect anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation along the South Shore of Lake Superior with the highest amounts in the Gogebic Range in northern Iron and Ashland counties through the weekend.
352 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure will move across lower Michigan and to Ontario this evening. taking a cold front across the region. This cold front will return us to readings that are much more seasonable. A series of troughs will rotate across the Great Lakes through the weekend. Cold front will be crossing the area this evening and may bring a few more isolated/scattered rain showers across the area. but likely not hit the freezing mark just yet. Precipitation looks to be widespread on Thursday as the first in a series of troughs rotate across the area. Definitely bought the snow in by the time the lower level winds veer to the west-northwest.
By Thursday this disturbance will be replaced by a strong ridge This will result in cooler weather, with an abundance of low clouds and fog in the valleys through the weekend.
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front is currently pushing east across the area and will slide east of the area this morning.
1146 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Will get into more of a true warm sector regime early today as a cold front approaches from the west. A secondary cold front will be poised to slide southeast through the region tonight.
Showers ahead of a cold front will be spreading into the area this evening. The cold front moves through between 08Z and 12Z, shifting winds to the west and advecting cooler temperatures. Broken to overcast clouds will likely persist behind the front into Thursday, especially in the northern half, as the midlevel trough passage comes around midday Thursday. Northern sections may see an isolated light shower Thursday beneath the colder midlevel temps with the passing trough. Much cooler air will move in early in the extended behind and exiting cold front.
Final snow totals will likely range 5 to 11 inches on the ridge tops of western Wisconsin and the higher elevations of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. 12z models are in good agreement that the short wave trough will move southeast through southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. The highest totals will be located along and south of the Wisconsin River. On Thursday, a short wave trough will move southeast through the region.
245 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 An intense sfc cyclone was occluding over the WI/IL border this afternoon. The character is teaming with large high pressure covering most of the Northern Rockies to produce brisk NW winds that have resulted in much cooler weather across KICT Country. The intense sfc cyclone will move NE across Quebec tonight & Thu then across Labrador/Newfoundland Thu night & Fri while high pressure strengthens considerably over the Great Basin. Warmer weather is still scheduled to arrive on Sat as the lower-deck flow takes on a more westerly component. It'll be much warmer to start the work-week as strengthening lower deck troffing surges E/SE across the Northern Plains to induce the flow to back to a SW-W component. It'll turn cooler on Tue when a weak SE-moving cold front should cross KS in the morning.
A lingering trough will maintain upper forcing for ascent and therefore cannot rule out a few lingering flurries or snow showers near the Montana/North Dakota border. An upper level ridge will build across the western U.
403 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front will sweep east across the region this evening, and precipitation will diminish before scattered rain and snow showers develop Thursday as colder air filters into the Ohio Valley.
945 AM PST Wed Jan 25 2017 Strong high pressure building over the Great Basin will bring clear, cool weather this week.
340 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A weak warm front will approach the are tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system bringing snow to the region continuing to slowly slide east early this morning, currently sitting over northeastern portions of NE. Snow (light-mod) continues to wrap around the backside of the low, mainly affecting portions of south central NE along and east of an Ord to Red Cloud line. The large upper trough over the central/eastern United states will shift farther east by the weekend.