Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slippery roads will be possible overnight either due to snow covered roads or black ice from water refreezing. Friday will remain very cold as we will struggle to get above freezing in west Tennessee, eastern Arkansas and the bootheel. Again, refreezing will occur Friday night into Saturday as well. An abrupt pattern shift will occur early on Saturday as arctic high pressure quickly slides east and return flow sets up across the area.
The frontal boundary which moved through the Panhandles will lift north and east by Friday evening as a warm front and should have lifted out of the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Schneider Another cold front will move south across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in association with an upper level short wave trough passing to our north.
Walked outside to take our manual rain gauge measurement for the day and determined the cold front has indeed arrived. The upper trough bringing this cold air will quickly move northeast out of the area tonight and into tomorrow leading to northwesterly winds aloft. This airmass change will be short lived however as the next upper trough moves into the western US on Saturday leading to high pressure building over the area.
817 PM MST Thu Jan 6 2022 Evening Update (0320z): Approaching warm front is brining in scattered areas of snow. As it does, return flow around the High will start shifting our winds to the southeast. At the same time a Pacific system moves into the northern Rockies and this will start shifting our stationary Arctic front back eastward as a warm front. A chance of some light snow remains in the area on Friday with temperatures steadily warming during the day as the warm front approaches. For now going a bit lower on the high temps, although even this will bring us back up to and slightly above our seasonal norms (mid 20s for Glasgow).
It's breezy in the high country and blowing snow is causing travel impacts. We expect areas of blowing snow to continue to impact the high terrain tonight so we issued a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow in the Front Range mountains, northern Front Range foothills, and South Park through 5 AM MST. In the mountains, the greatest impact will be for the high passes where winds are strongest, mainly above 10000 feet. The strongest winds will be confined to the higher mountain passes. On Saturday, a weak upper trough will move across the state with zonal flow aloft in its wake.
Looking at soundings, there are hints that some freezing drizzle may occur in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday morning before we rise above freezing.
The mid level flow will transition to moderate ridging across the region through Friday night. This is due to the strong southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching cold front that will move through the area by mid day. In addition, expect a quick warmup Saturday ahead of the cold front that will sweeping across the area during the late morning into early afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to drop overnight, quickly freezing any moisture left on roadways. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 22 49 37 52 / 0 0 0 20 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 17 46 31 49 / 0 0 0 20 100 Oak Ridge, TN 29 16 44 32 47 / 0 0 0 30 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 12 45 27 48 / 0 0 0 10 100 TN.
A brief period of freezing rain is likely Saturday afternoon before precipitation transitions to plain rain with the onset of warmer temperatures. Frequent gusts between 20-30 mph will help transport a warmer and more humid air mass into central Illinois by early Saturday afternoon. Thermal profiles reveal a brief period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle across much of the area before transitioning to plain rain. We do know that many locations along and north of I-72 have developed a frost depth over the past week, with 75+ consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures. Still, there may be enough residual treatment on primary roads to mitigate a widespread freezing rain concern.
Warmer temperatures are expected tonight in the east and areawide Friday. Breezy conditions are expected Friday and Saturday along and east of the central mountain chain, and temperatures will briefly trend cooler again areawide this weekend as a disturbance passes eastward over the southern Rockies.
852 PM PST Thu Jan 6 2022 A trough of low pressure moving inland along the West Coast will deepen the marine layer through Saturday with cooling and more extensive night and morning coastal low clouds and fog spreading inland.
Unfortunately, it looks like low clouds and fog will be returning tomorrow afternoon from the coast as the warm front moves back inland.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the eastern part of the country and another upper trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will progress eastward on Saturday extending from the Northern Plains to New Mexico and Arizona. Surface winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will increase out of the west Saturday afternoon as a result of the approaching trough.
Had originally expected a Wind Chill Advisory to be needed overnight tonight into Friday morning, but most recent guidance has trended warmer with less wind over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will warm on Friday as the upper ridge over the western U. Temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 40s across the forecast area on Saturday ahead of the next upper trough sweeping east of the Rockies Saturday evening, bringing a slight chance of a wintry mix of precipitation to far eastern Colorado.
Low precip chances creep into Mohave county later in the period as a cut-off low tries to draw moisture northward. Satellite shows an area of high clouds developing around Reno in area of increasing west- southwest winds preceding incoming trough. Trough axis progged to reach western Nevada Friday afternoon then continue southeast across the Great Basin tomorrow night through Saturday.
Cold temps will continue into Saturday morning but we will see a surge of warm air later in the day as a strong southerly fetch kicks in ahead of a cold front.
We can still expect a chilly night as a cooler and drier airmass moves in behind the front. Even so, temps will make it right above freezing to the lower 40s with wind chill values in the 20s to 30s.
During the night tonight, winds will be rather light as the arctic high pressure system slowly moves to the northeast of the region. A decent ridge will begin to build into the region allowing the pressure gradient to tighten up. By Friday night, the WAA will continue and keep overnight lows much warmer than tonight but will still be a little below normal. Saturday will the warmest day of the short term with highs punching into the low 50s.
The coming week looks to be predominantly dry with a transitory ridge/trof pattern, beginning with a central NOAM H5 trof with attendant Arctic airmass over the Northern Plains, transitioning through a warmer H5 ridge for the mid week period, and followed by a back-door cold front to end the week.
While this line of showers and thunderstorms resembles what we usually see along a front, the nearest cold front is still straddling the Florida Panhandle. Nighttime microphysics depict partly cloudy skies across the island chain, with increased cloud cover from the convective activity to our west advancing quickly towards the Lower Keys. Strong high pressure will build into the region and tighten the pressure gradient.
511 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Latest analysis early this morning shows low pressure getting ready to move off the Mid-Atlantic coast, while cold high pressure is building into the region from the NW. High pressure will slide closer to the area this afternoon and then will be overhead this evening, before sliding to the east overnight and into Saturday. Afternoon temps will struggle to reach the low and middle 20s today. With high pressure shifting to the east on Saturday, southerly flow will bring some milder air into eastern KY.
At 06Z the axis of the 1032mb high pressure system stretched from north to south through the central part of the country with several states affected by the cold temperatures and wind chill headlines. We remain under the influence of the trough over the Great Lakes. but are on the western edge with mid-tropospheric ridging building in from the west with increasing heights today and tonight. Deeper moisture is drawn northward and some of the more recent runs of the HRRR/RAP/NAM point to enough low level moisture for freezing rain. Did include some silent pops/low pops for the possible snow/freezing drizzle mix.
357 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022 A cold start to the day today, under the southern periphery of a 1029mb surface pressure ridge centered over the mid-MS River valley. Southeasterly winds will develop over east AR this afternoon, around the periphery of the surface pressure ridge. For tonight, low amplitude ridging will develop over the lower MS River valley, in advance of an approaching trof over the Rockies. A few showers or patchy areas of drizzle may arrive to the east AR delta before temps warm above freezing, and have reflected this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Patchy fog has been developing across the San Joaquin Valley overnight, mainly along the Highway 198 corridor from Lemoore to Hanford to Visalia. An upper trough will move over the Pacific Northwest today with precipitation extending down over northern California. A ridge of high pressure will build inland from the Pacific this weekend.
533 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Cold air remains in place today with light snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and the ridges of West Virginia. The same goes for the ridges with upslope flow. Subsidence and crossing high pressure will return dry weather to the region Friday night into Saturday.
A warm front has stalled along the I-90 corridor, with shallow arctic air still in place across northwest Montana, the Potomac/Seeley Lake region, and across the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys. Freezing rain has developed across the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten by the mid to late morning hours as a cold front begins to push into the Columbia Basin. Southerly winds will advect warm air aloft across portions of northwest Montana, expanding the threat of freezing rain across the highway 200 corridor and in the Flathead and Mission valleys around the morning commute. A quick hitting strong pacific cold front will move across area during the late afternoon hours.
/issued 357 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ A cold start to the day today, under the southern periphery of a 1029mb surface pressure ridge centered over the mid-MS River valley. Southeasterly winds will develop over east AR this afternoon, around the periphery of the surface pressure ridge. For tonight, low amplitude ridging will develop over the lower MS River valley, in advance of an approaching trof over the Rockies. A few showers or patchy areas of drizzle may arrive to the east AR delta before temps warm above freezing, and have reflected this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Even for Colorado, that's impressive! For the rest of today, a weak, low amplitude transitory ridge will move through the CWA bringing times of sun and clouds, more of the latter near the mountains. Looking to our northwest, another trough will be poised to move into our area overnight with plenty of upper level support noted as we'll be under the right entrance region of the jet stream. At the surface, a cold front will move through and this baroclinic zone will be the focus of precipitation. Most models agree on a fairly narrow band of increased PWATs accompanying this cold front so while this system will be a quick mover, it looks to bring enough lift to produce advisory level amounts of snow for the northern mountains and Flat Tops. High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than those seen today.
Plenty of sunshine is thus expected for southern Wisconsin today, with lighter winds under high pressure. Not out of the question to see some freezing drizzle by Saturday afternoon. Models are showing decent saturation in the lowest 5 kft, so increasing clouds are expected at the very least. Not seeing much lift in the lower levels though, so kept the freezing drizzle mention out of the forecast for now. Temps will warm through the day Saturday and possibly even into early evening ahead of the cold front, with highs returning to near normal.
646 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will control the region through Saturday.
As the low level moisture continues to advance northward, all terminals will see MVFR and then IFR conditions through the overnight hours.
Snowfall accumulations of around 2-6 inches are likely across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades. Forecast soundings don't look too bullish on instability, but a few hours of clearing behind the front along with the upper trough swinging through in the afternoon may be enough to pop a few storms over the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain.
The last in a series of storm systems will move through southeast Idaho today with an upper level trof and associated cold front. Not sure if Snake Plain sees much snow behind the cold front as moisture decreases and gridded data has none but sometimes models underestimate how quickly cold air moves in behind cold frontal passage.
455 AM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Updated Aviation High pressure entrenched over the southwestern United States will continue to influence our local weather conditions today with mostly clear skies as well as moderating temperatures. A low pressure system will pass to our north late today into Saturday bringing an increase in clouds but no precipitation. Elite January weather will continue as a broad ridge remains parked over the region.
337 AM PST Fri Jan 7 2022 A trough of low pressure moving inland along the West Coast will deepen the marine layer through Saturday with cooling and more extensive night and morning coastal low clouds and fog spreading inland.
355 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure building back into the region will keep the weather quiet for the next 24 hrs. Even with ample sunshine today, the highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 50s. A mid/upper trough will ease across the CONUS, with the southern end lagging back into the Southwest.
High pressure will shift east of the area by this afternoon.
with temps in the low to mid teens across the north. The dry conditions will persist through this afternoon and evening with upper ridging moving overhead. Temps will bottom out around midnight in the low 20s to low 30s. There looks to be enough overlap of moisture increasing and temps below freezing to see some light FZRA or patchy FZDZ starting before sunrise in the higher terrain of WRN AR. Looks like the higher terrain of the Ozarks and Ouachitas will have the best opportunity for seeing accumulating ice. the higher terrain areas could see a few hundredths of an inch of ice Sat morning before temps warm rapidly above freezing by midday. a cold front will be moving back SE into the state.
912 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Scattered snow showers favoring northwest Pennsylvania and the higher elevations will taper off through this evening with building high pressure.
Light showers will be possible through this afternoon in the wake of a passing cold front.
- Very Light Wintry Mix Possible Saturday Night Model guidance indicates less than a tenth of an inch of mixed precipitation is possible Saturday night as a robust 50kt LLJ advects warmer air and some Gulf moisture up into Lower Michigan.
655 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will control the region through Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The most recent surface analysis indicates that a cold front currently bisects the BRO CWFA. Tonight, the convection persists offshore but shifts more over the northern ranchlands as low pressure develops along the Lower Texas Coast and the cold front retreats to the north as a warm front. Showers will be mainly offshore on Saturday in the wake of the warm front. Cooler temperatures today and tonight will be quickly wiped away on Saturday due to the cold front/warm front switch-up.
301 AM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure entrenched over the southwestern United States will continue to influence our local weather conditions today with mostly clear skies as well as moderating temperatures. A low pressure system will pass to our north late today into Saturday bringing an increase in clouds but no precipitation. Elite January weather will continue as a broad ridge remains parked over the region.
430 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will control the region through Saturday.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis in combination with mid level water imagery show a broad northwest upper flow as an amplified ridge builds over the western portion of the country. Cloud cover from a system working over the upper ridge does have clouds extending from it over the cwa. At the surface, a lee-side trough over the eastern slopes, with high pressure east of the region is providing the southerly gradient, especially in areas along the CO/KS border. The current winds/cloud cover is aiding the lows over the region. WAA southerly flow(20-30 mph gusts possible) continues providing a nice increase compared to the highs yesterday. For the upcoming weekend, overall dry, but the current trough to the west moves off the Front Range pushing south of the area during the day.
A few isolated showers continue to move across the interior and southwest Florida ahead of a weak cold front. By Saturday morning, slightly cooler airmass will be in place with most only dropping a few degrees. A broad area of high pressure will be building in during this time bringing afternoon highs to the low to mid 80s through the weekend.
High pressure building back into the region will keep the weather quiet for the next 24 hrs. Even with ample sunshine today, the highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 50s. A mid/upper trough will ease across the CONUS, with the southern end lagging back into the Southwest.
That said the fog potential remains nonzero across the interior with light low level flow and sufficient moisture pooling out ahead of a cold front that is forecast to push into the region today. The low level flow looks to increase later tonight, which should limit any fog potential.
704 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Scattered snow showers favoring northwest Pennsylvania and the higher elevations will taper off through this evening with building high pressure.
/issued 337 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The most recent surface analysis indicates that a cold front currently bisects the BRO CWFA. Tonight, the convection persists offshore but shifts more over the northern ranchlands as low pressure develops along the Lower Texas Coast and the cold front retreats to the north as a warm front. Showers will be mainly offshore on Saturday in the wake of the warm front. Cooler temperatures today and tonight will be quickly wiped away on Saturday due to the cold front/warm front switch-up.
Light freezing rain is expected to bring additional travel hazards late Saturday into Saturday night. This next round will be preceded by a fast return of warm air aloft as warmer air overruns colder air. Concern that ground and pavement temperatures will lag actual air temperatures, creating an environment for light freezing rain.
Temperatures were slow to mix out in some areas, ranging from near 20 in the southwest to the low 40s across the northwest Sandhills. On Saturday, A cold front will drop southward in the afternoon.
Strong high pressure will build to the north Tonight, with cooler air continuing to filter into the region. Temperatures across inland SE GA are expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s toward dawn, with winds becoming light. For Saturday, the high builds more toward the northeast. Models depict an inverted trough developing along the the coast during the day. The coastal trough will yield an enhanced pressure gradient, and winds elevated at the coast. Convergence due to the trough could result in a few coastal showers as well. Readings will be a little lower along the coast of NE FL due to the onshore flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters.
Surface analysis late this morning centers a 1033 mb ridge of arctic high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. /issued 357 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ A cold start to the day today, under the southern periphery of a 1029mb surface pressure ridge centered over the mid-MS River valley. Southeasterly winds will develop over east AR this afternoon, around the periphery of the surface pressure ridge. For tonight, low amplitude ridging will develop over the lower MS River valley, in advance of an approaching trof over the Rockies. A few showers or patchy areas of drizzle may arrive to the east AR delta before temps warm above freezing, and have reflected this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Southerly surface winds will increase overnight as the surface pressure gradient tightens from lee troughing. Increasing southerly winds and increasing cloud cover this evening will keep low temperatures around freezing, which is much warmer than the previous two nights. Highs tomorrow could get up into the low 60s across the area, if clouds can break during peak heating.
330 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Any snow will come to an end early this evening as low pressure moves away from the region.
1251 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with trof across the Pac NW. At the surface, arctic air continues to erode from the west with lee trof advancing through eastern WY. Surface trof will continue to work through the region this afternoon and tonight, with cold front sweeping through Saturday morning as upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies.
1039 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure and dry conditions expected. Temps will dip back down to freezing or below for most areas across north and central GA tonight. With high pressure building in across the region expecting dry conditions Today and Saturday.
A weak cold front will pass through the Bay Area through early afternoon with clearing by late afternoon into tonight. Fog formation in the valleys tonight as high pressure builds. Dry high pressure this weekend with seasonable temperatures as morning fog gives way to afternoon sunshine.
/Issued 827 AM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ Quick update to lower high temps today by several degrees given abundant stratus and north winds ahead of a deepening coastal trough. Influx of higher surface dewpoints won't occur until tonight once a coastal low drifts north and veers our winds more easterly, so temps for much of today should be curbed in the low/mid 50s except along the immediate coast.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the Midwest gradually moves east through the day across the Ohio River Valley. Additionally, a weaker southern stream trough will be lifting across the northwest Gulf toward Louisiana and Mississippi through Saturday. Even with this southern stream trough, limited moisture availability over our region, and ascent with this feature should remain off to our west-southwest keeping any precipitation chances to a minimum through Saturday. Highs on Saturday should moderate back into the lower to mid 60s across the area.
A cold front is quickly moving across the region this morning with rain and mountain snow in advance. Surface winds SE-SW 10-20 kts except 20-30 kts across the higher terrain, shifting to west after 21z following a cold front.
1032 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will control the region through Saturday.
104 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Scattered snow showers favoring northwest Pennsylvania and the higher elevations will taper off through this evening with building high pressure.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 51 38 52 34 / 0 0 20 100 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 18 46 33 50 30 / 0 0 20 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 17 46 34 49 28 / 0 0 30 100 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 13 45 28 47 26 / 0 0 10 100 80.