Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
841 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Scattered high clouds and southeast winds 5 to 10 mph continue this evening as low pressure over eastern Colorado edges very slowly closer. expect lows in the low to mid 40s as winds and cloud cover keep temperatures from dropping much. High pressure over the eastern United States kept southeast winds over central IL today. Main moisture and cloud advection late tonight, with the low clouds reaching into the area late.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFSHORE WILL WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SAT BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
909 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE FEATURE STILL EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT. /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE CNTL CONUS. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GO THROUGH MAX HEATING ALONG WITH OUR WEAK WARM FRONT. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES PRIMARILY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ONE MORE DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
828 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF DFW. CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING FROM S TO N WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -SHRA NEAR/S OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
854 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD CALM BTWN 30/03Z THRU 30/15Z BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFT 30/15Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO BTWN 25 TO 40 KTS BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 31/02Z. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PSEUDO DRYLINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NWRN ZONES VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS WED EVENING.
1151 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Scattered high clouds and southeast winds 5 to 10 mph continue this evening as low pressure over eastern Colorado edges very slowly closer. expect lows in the low to mid 40s as winds and cloud cover keep temperatures from dropping much. High pressure over the eastern United States kept southeast winds over central IL today. Main moisture and cloud advection late tonight, with the low clouds reaching into the area late.
1009 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS NOW WORKED WELL INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO MIDDLE 80S WEST. BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BRING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE NAM OF COURSE IS ABLE TO AVOID THIS CAP DUE TO THE HIGHER FORECAST DEW POINTS, AND THE GFS HAS LOWER DEW POINTS THEREFORE HIGHER BASES, AND IS HAVING TROUBLE BREAKING OUT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OUR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE IMPACT IS BEING FELT IN MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BROAD ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG H5 ANTI-CYCLONE TO HOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE SCENE IS SET FOR AN OUTFLOW EVENT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT COULD ENHANCE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AND MOVE IT MORE EASILY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WETTING RAINS WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEASTERN CA. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AZ WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED.
254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT. EARLY SUMMER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORS GOOD MIXING. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FIRMLY PLANTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE PRESENT MOST OF THE WEEK.
AS 800-600MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ON EASTERN FRINGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. REACHING GENERALLY THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST NAM/GFS CONSENSUS.
16 NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA.
1123 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS WEEKEND KEEPING DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE WILL PUT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST ABOUT OVER UTAH AS WE START OFF THE WEEK. FOCUSING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE US TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
104 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. H5 RIDGE WL BE HOLDING TIGHT SAT EVNG AND FLATTENING AS LEAD S/WV HEADS NORTH INTO MAINE BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AS A SECONDARY LOW ON SUNDAY FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED POSITIONED OVER UTAH THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECTING MOST VALLEYS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AND STORMS MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOST VALLEYS REMAINING DRY WITH A FEW DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
524 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECAST SUNDAY.
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE SUNSHINE. COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THIS MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO NEAR A CAMDEN TO TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO MOUNT PLEASANT AND MINEOLA TEXAS LINE. ALSO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LESS RAINFALL AROUND AND AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW MORE SUN TO PEAK THROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS NOW WORKED WELL INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE.
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT HAS POOLED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF FL AND WEAKENS.
135 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND PULL NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
325 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING TAKING PLACE TO FIRE STORMS ALONG A LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS NOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MENTIONED ABOVE. WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS WILL GET SLUNG BACK INTO THE CWA AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
549 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ARKADELPHIA AR THROUGH QUITMAN TX THIS SATURDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE S TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 346 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL TIGHTEN A BIT.
503 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE AS AN OCCLUDING/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP LOW OVER OHIO. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END THEREAFTER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
221 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
257 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM AROUND COOKEVILLE TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES IN. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.
342 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER AIRMASS.
THIS WAS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT THIS HOUR MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH WEAK TROF IN MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK. OUT AHEAD OF IT AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AND DEW PTS CLIMB A BIT HIGHER INTO LOWER-MID 60S. THOUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTM MENTION SUN AFTN.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS SET UP SHOP OVER THE KEYS AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BAY. WITH THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE AREA THE EXPECTATION IS FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH A TURN TO THE EAT TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND.
HIGH IT WILL BE QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE EAST SUNDAY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE THOUGH.
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED POSITIONED OVER UTAH THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECTING MOST VALLEYS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AND STORMS MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOST VALLEYS REMAINING DRY WITH A FEW DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.
222 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAINY AND COOL AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND PUSHING NORTH AND TAKING THE STEADY RAIN WITH IT. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS WEST TO THE THIN LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE COLD FRONT. AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STABLE. SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND IF THEY CAN TAP INTO ANY AVAILABLE BOUYANCY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE LOW. ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD TAP THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. TAX SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY NEAR THE CWA BORDER IS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE MOST OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE TRIGGERED. ALSO BUMPED UP AFTN HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. SINCE RICH THETA AIR AND CONTINUING AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN LOOKS LIKE LAST SUMMER WITH RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
431 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH AND REACHED FROM NEAR EL DORADO TO FOUKE ARKANSAS AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO ATLANTA. OTHER SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OHIL VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS EAST AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND NUDGING THE SURFACE FRONT TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a slow westward expansion of patchy stratus / fog along and south of the Ozark Plateau this morning behind the exiting cold front which has now made its way into central Arkansas and Tennessee. So far wind speeds have been high enough to keep the lower levels mixed and limit fog development, but wind speeds have shown a slowing trend, so will probably need to add fog to the grids/forecast for the early morning.
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS ALREADY GOING STRONG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BUT IT WILL BE DIRECTED MORE SOUTHWARD MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING. WHILE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEAN ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. SUNDAY TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015 KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio Valley.
201 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AND WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING TAKING PLACE TO FIRE STORMS ALONG A LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS NOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MENTIONED ABOVE. WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS WILL GET SLUNG BACK INTO THE CWA AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH DEEPENED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 /18Z TAFS/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE WITH LITTLE THERMAL GRADIENT. DUNN MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG A LINE FROM CANTON TO FORT WORTH TO BRECKENRIDGE. 12 UTC RAOBS ACROSS OK/KS REVEALED THAT THIS COOLER AIRMASS WAS QUITE SHALLOW /AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME COLD FRONTS/. WITH NO REAL MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ---FELT THAT IT WAS NECESSARY TO KEEP CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.