Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CENTRAL/SRN AR. WITH MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THIS LOW. MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER PACIFIC NW TO DIG SE INTO NM THIS WKND AND HOLD STEADY OVER THAT STATE FOR A DAY OR TWO. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLD POPS INTO NE TX LATE IN WKND BUT INCREASING MOISTURE QUICKLY AS THE LOW THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WEAKENS AND LACK OF SFC FEATURES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS STILL WATERLOGGED PORTIONS OF CWA. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
356 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 MAIN CONCERN IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. NAM/GFS DRIFT THE LOW INTO AL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN MOVES IT VERY LITTLE. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME FOR FRIDAY AND THIS WILL CREATE SOME STRONGER WINDS.
COOLER STILL TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WARMER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND.
327 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Wvapor showed the upper low center over scntrl MO. Shower chances will continue tonight into Friday morning as the upper low center passes just to our south.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US.
234 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESIDING EAST OF THIS INVERTED TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST TO CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
In the mid and upper levels, there is a cut-off low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. With mostly cloudy skies and rain developing today temps will be cooler.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY.
At the same time, high pressure nosing down the lee of the Appalachians is pushing a backdoor cold front into the northeastern portion of the forecast area.
105 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
Weak closed low in central Oklahoma at midday, with associated weak deformation zone continuing to spread cirrus into southern Kansas. Winds back more SE this afternoon, with decreasing cirrus and highs in the low to mid 70s. Windy and warmer. Powerful cyclone spinning over the NE Pacific this afternoon. Models are in excellent agreement, and displaying impressive consistency, regarding this cyclone's track as a strong omega block forms over North America this weekend. Intense closed low dives to near Grand Canyon Arizona by 7 pm. Moisture supply certainly does not look fantastic regarding the thunderstorm potential, with dewpoints mainly in the lower 50s. Also, with the slow eastward progress of the cyclone in Arizona, jet stream forcing for convection will also be limited to areas mainly W/SW of SW KS.
JW 06Z TAFS: Low pressure system moves ashore tonight and tracks along the WA/OR border between 12Z and 23Z Thur.
WITH WHAT HAD BEEN PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES CENTERED TROUGHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. BEING REPLACED BY STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGING. WITH OVERHEAD RIDGING SECURING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH INTERIOR AREAS LIKELY DROPPING A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.
For the rest of the day, partly cloudy skies will prevail, with light southeast winds and afternoon highs ranging from the lower to middle 70s over the eastern counties and mid to upper 70s western counties.
324 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO BE INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CIRRUS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
245 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 Breezy Winds will continue as a sharp cold front moves through this morning. Only modest rain and snow amounts are expected with the front and upper low, with the best chance north of I-80. Temperatures will be much cooler with brisk winds Thursday and Friday before a significant warm up over the weekend. Snow accumulations will be minor and mainly limited to elevations above 5500-6000 ft with a trace to an inch or so; only token amounts, up to 4 inches, are expected for the higher Sierra. Winds peak this afternoon with the passage of a surface cold front; there could be isolated gusts up to 50 mph during frontal passage especially for more wind prone locations.
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY NICE SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION.
An upper low over Arkansas this morning will drift slowly southeastward to Alabama by the end of the short term. Shower coverage will wane this evening as the sun sets, and should be lower still tomorrow as the low drifts away. We got a degree or two warmer yesterday than expected, so will go on the warm side of guidance for temps today and tomorrow with highs generally in the 69-74 degree range.
418 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AS BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER CONUS. DRY AIR MASS UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. INTENSIFYING THE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN US.
640 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
316 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 An upper level low is situated over northwestern Arkansas at this time with mid and high level cloudiness across the entire CWA. This low is expected to slowly meander across northern Arkansas through tonight. The low over Arkansas will make its way into the southeastern US on Friday and help set up a blocking pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes. The next upper low.
422 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS AND CSRA. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. 00Z MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. SO LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MAY BE COOLER IN THE CSRA.
S-SE BREEZES WILL PICK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW- LEVEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO A LARGE UPPER-LOW MOVING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
An upper level low is situated over northwestern Arkansas at this time with mid and high level cloudiness across the entire CWA. This low is expected to slowly meander across northern Arkansas through tonight. The low over Arkansas will make its way into the southeastern US on Friday and help set up a blocking pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes. The next upper low.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL MAINTAIN A STRANGLEHOLD ON INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
602 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AS BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER CONUS. DRY AIR MASS UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. INTENSIFYING THE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN US.
137 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. H500 RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AS BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER CONUS. DRY AIR MASS UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. INTENSIFYING THE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN US.
234 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESIDING EAST OF THIS INVERTED TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
WEAK UPPER LOW TO BECOME CUTOFF AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AND LEND A HELPING HAND WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS.
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MANY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM MEAN WEST COAST TROUGH.
350 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS GIVEN MODEST UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -15 DEG C AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SSE ACROSS AL/GA THROUGH FRI EVENING.
616 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
650 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL SUSTAIN CLEAR SKIES TODAY. ISSUED 316 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 MID APRIL INSOLATION AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (580+ DAM AT 500 MB) INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE. SO AT THIS POINT HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW QPF FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE.
/TODAY/ LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. BUT STILL WENT ON THE LOWERED END OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AND RH GIVEN YESTERDAY'S TRENDS.
Evening update: One round of showers is tracking into southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle at this hour. /sb 06Z TAFS: Low pressure system moves ashore tonight and tracks along the WA/OR border between 12Z and 23Z Thur.
/ISSUED 356 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016/ MAIN CONCERN IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. NAM/GFS DRIFT THE LOW INTO AL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN MOVES IT VERY LITTLE. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME FOR FRIDAY AND THIS WILL CREATE SOME STRONGER WINDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.
246 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWS DROP TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH.
319 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
553 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Wvapor showed the upper low center over scntrl MO. Shower chances will continue tonight into Friday morning as the upper low center passes just to our south.
337 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. AND THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REFLECTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE DEEPENING BOOKEND TROUGHS ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S. WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
344 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS OUR AREA TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY. AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
BELIEVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET TO ABOUT THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES BEFORE THEY START DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WARMER DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMER MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP LAKE MICHIGAN AND BAY LOCATIONS MUCH COOLER.
315 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WEAK UPPER LOW TO BECOME CUTOFF AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AND LEND A HELPING HAND WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX FRIDAY AS A 500MB LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
557 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING TREND OF TEMPERATURES.
STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO BE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE KBDN.
UPPER LOW IN THE ARKLATEX WRAPPING SERIES OF VORT MAXES THROUGH THE GULF COAST SENDING UPPER ENERGY AND CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AROUND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM AROUND I-4 NORTHWARD.
254 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS IN THE NORTH. ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA VARIABLE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE THE SKY SOMEWHAT BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS THERE WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE INCREASING RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. WHILE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -11 DEG C OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY ARE NOT TOO SHABBY, THE COOL OFF ALOFT OVER THE REGION TO -13 DEG C ON FRIDAY AS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEARS HAS PROMPTED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO PUT MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INTO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY.
AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
607 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
LOW PRESSURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEBRASKA. WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE SLIDES PAST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL JUSTIFY LEAVING THE HIGHER POPS IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER HIGH TO REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY ENABLING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
WITH A BIT COOLER AIR FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR MODESTLY WARMER WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AROUND 7-8KFT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AREAS.
112 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS. 75 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.
307 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO. WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED SLIDING ACRS ND. AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH. UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
542 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AND NOT WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE BE HIGHER.
231 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 20 MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA.
WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH. /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
522 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
Temperatures near a degree or two cooler today than yesterday with highs generally in the 90s most areas. A subtropical ridge slowly retrograding overhead today will continue westward through Friday, becoming somewhat anchored over NM this weekend.
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SPARKED CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST.
WITH ALL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH OVER COLORADO. WARMER TODAY AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES. WE MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PINE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.