Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest water vapor imagery this morning shows upper low nearing southern NM with large scale ascent noted across west TX with showers/tstms. Adjusted pops this evening as well given none of the high- res/short term model solutions show much QPF before even 14/03z across extreme eastern OK and all of our AR zones. Temperatures may be a bit cooler in areas already under full cloud cover but visible imagery shows clear skies across extreme NE OK and a bit of NW Arkansas.
Expect this boundary will move north as a warm front through the day. The low to mid level shear will be fairly strong.
Scattered showers will be possible overnight for the coastal plains while stronger convection will be possible for LRD area between 08-12Z ahead of the cold front. Expect this boundary will move north as a warm front through the day. The low to mid level shear will be fairly strong.
230 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 As of Monday afternoon, a cutoff low pressure system continues to spin over the southwestern CONUS. The center of this low pressure system will slowly drift east through New Mexico this evening. By midnight low pressure will transition eastward, with the best dynamic support for snow and mid-level moisture content shifting east into the high plains as well.
Upper ridge to keep dry conditions in place the next couple of days. With inversions remaining in place below upper ridge, haze may create some minor visibility reductions this afternoon but VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Another round of patchy valley fog/low stratus is expected tonight as the upper ridge maintains inversions. Upper level ridge will continue to build today and remain in place through Tuesday.
1231 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Clouds associated with pre-frontal trough across South Florida early this afternoon producing occasional ceilings 025-030. Cold front stalls over PBI/Lake Okeechobee area late tonight with occasional MVFR and VCSH in these areas after 06z.
Cold air advection tomorrow will steepen the low level lapse and likely bring a deck of clouds with it.
400 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will settle over the area tonight and shift off the coast on Tuesday.
148 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
/issued 515 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ High pressure over the Mid South today will move to the east by Tuesday as another storm system approaches from the west. An upper level low pressure system over northern Mexico today will move northeast over the next couple of days before becoming absorbed by a larger upper level trough digging across the eastern United States. As the upper low lifts northeast through Tuesday.
313 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Rain continues to increase west of I-35 this afternoon as compact upper level low moves east across New Mexico.
There has been some northward progression along the Rio Grande Plains in response to the approaching trough and cyclogenesis across the Big Bend.
353 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
1125 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure centered over northwest Missouri early this morning will move slowly southeast across the area today. Skies will mostly cloudy today as sct-bkn high clouds stream northeastward ahead of a upper low moving into the southern High Plains. Temperatures the past few days have verified at or above the warm side of guidance, so will go with the warmer GFS MOS guidance today.
Freezing fog advisories are in effect for the Blue Mountain Foothills until 11 AM this morning. Patchy freezing fog has developed in and around the Columbia Basin this morning. Another day of strong subsidence associated with high pressure ridge aloft will allow temperatures in the mountains and higher valleys as well as Central OR to warm into the 40s. The Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys underneath the low level inversion will not be so lucky and will only warm into the mid to upper 30s. Conditions will improve through the afternoon but then the freezing fog and low clouds will likely redevelop again late tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Weak cold air advection through Tuesday will yield slightly cooler conditions tonight and tomorrow central. However, the arrival of low level warm air advection far west tomorrow will result in slightly warmer conditions in the lower 40s.
158 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
316 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) A potent upper level low is currently located near the southern New Mexico/Arizona border. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight as large scale lift increases with the approach of the upper level low. As the upper level low tracks across north Texas, wrap around shower activity will be possible across the Big Country into the afternoon hours.
411 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure overhead this evening will shift to the east coast overnight. Southwest flow will ramp up on Tuesday in advance of a trough developing over the Upper Great Lakes. The trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday night pulling a cold front south across the area. Lingering cloud cover in Pennsylvania will gradually erode overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead and the flow backs to the southwest. Southwest flow and warm advection will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next trough that will deepen across the Great Lakes region during the mid-week period. Daytime hours will be dry with very dry air above 800mb until the airmass starts to moisten as the cold front approaches.
410 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Mostly clear and cooler today with some increasing clouds and rain moving into N GA Tues. High pressure over the area will keep things dry for the next 24 hours but this ridge will weaken and allow increased moisture and showers to push into N GA Tuesday afternoon. Low temps tonight expected in the 30s and lower 40s across the CWA with high temps Tue just a few deg warmer than today.
130 PM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 It will be warm and locally breezy today then a little cooler through midweek with night through morning low clouds and fog.
Primary meteorological concern is amount of impact that closed upper low has over the forecast district during the next 24 hours. Recent PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and forecast model soundings suggest that closed upper low located approximately 125 miles to the south of Tucson, Arizona at 12Z this morning will move to southeastern New Mexico by 12Z Tuesday. Weather pattern will revert back to dry and unseasonably warm this week as yet another warm ridge of high pressure crosses the Rockies.
/15/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold front, cooler weather forecast for the ArkLaMiss region today. Highs will be within a few degrees of normal for this time of year, with clearing skies and lighter winds beneath a ridge of high pressure making for a pleasant mid-February day.
306 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will slide off to the east this evening, allowing a weak upper disturbance to approach from the west. A cold front will be departing to the southeast of our counties Tuesday evening, as its parent low pressure center moves across southern Ontario toward New York State.
1018 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather for the upcoming week with sunny skies and warming temperatures each day.
1200 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will ridge across the region from southwest to northeast through the day.
356 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front. Remaining stratocu across the area should clear this evening under building high pressure.
A high pressure ridge aloft will continue to build over the region today. Upper level high pressure will persist over the region through late Tuesday morning.
1229 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds in today for decreasing winds and dry conditions. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
There has been little change in model solutions over the past day or so, and all models continue to project scattered showers in the western half of our area through the evening, then a line of strong to marginally severe storms along a cold front, sweeping through areas west of I-35 between midnight and 6 am. Otherwise, high pressure will quickly usher in cooler air and clear skies from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Very little change is expected to the general air mass across the high plains tonight so look for lows once again down into the 30s(F) and possibly the upper 20s(F). Although a weak frontal boundary is pushing southward across western and central Kansas early Tuesday morning setting up northerly winds across the region, little additional cold air is expected to move into the high plains. With decreasing clouds expected, at least across west central and central Kansas, look for highs to only push the lower to mid 50s(F) Tuesday afternoon.
Dry and mild conditions will persist into Tuesday as high pressure remains aloft.
150 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the west coast, and a low over southern AZ/NM. Mild and dry weather will continue through the week, as the upper ridge slowly transitions eastward.
As the low passes by to our south on Tuesday night, models agree on moisture/precip making its way north across the TN/KY border. Temperatures should be mostly above freezing, with the exception of the highest elevations near the VA border.
It will be a quiet 24 hours with high pressure in control.
954 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 A low pressure system moving out of the Desert Southwest will mean a lingering chance of showers mainly across eastern Arizona through Tuesday.
1006 AM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 Strong high pressure will bring a good chance of sunshine to much of the Inland Northwest today and Tuesday.
357 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds in today for decreasing winds and dry conditions. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
138 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
The highest impact conditions are expected after 14/12z. We also have some peaks of sun, but lots of clouds in the low levels from 3-7kft. Also our VAD has shown a shallowing of E/NE flow with some veering to SE under the lowest cloud base.
/Issued 330 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ Gusty northerly winds will gradually relax this evening as high pressure settles into the region. Increasing cloud cover on Monday will mark the approaching influence of the upper low which is currently moving across Baja.
640 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A strong cold front tonight will usher in some more seasonably cool air starting tonight.
A cold front will advance across the mid-state today bringing scattered light showers and keeping MVFR cigs around the area.
Therefore, increased temperatures a few degrees overnight, resulting in warmer lows, not dipping below freezing, but in a few locations and not for more than an hour. Looking at wet bulb temperatures, the dew point forecast remains on track, and even with the warmer temperatures overnight, calculations would suggest two to three degrees below freezing is possible.
543 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front will continue to move through the region this evening. The cold front has slowed and is currently along a line from Austin to Del Rio. The models are in good agreement with timing of the trough axis as the cutoff low opens up and ejects across the lower Mississippi valley.
632 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front moves through the region this evening ushering in breezy NW winds and drier air.
In the midlevels a deep closed low currently dwells over the Baja Mexico region. This closed low will eventually kick out across the southern Plains.
Just enough of a gradient will remain in place tonight since the high is not centered on top of us, so not expecting temps to completely bottom out, but valley areas should be the coolest nonetheless. These numbers were a bit cooler which seemed reasonable. Also kept overnight lows warmer in this area because of the increased mixing.
A cold front will bring near to a little below average temperatures mid-week, otherwise above normal readings will be the rule.
617 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening followed by cool high pressure building in for the first part of the work week.
417 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 A weak cold front is located just north of the forecast area and from Northwest Louisiana into South Central Texas as of 12/21Z or 3 pm local. Rua The weak cold front will move into the forecast area before sunrise and into the coastal waters shortly after midnight. Cooler and drier conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure builds in behind the front from the north.
619 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front will sweep through late tonight.
935 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Clear skies will remain through the night as high pressure builds east. Just enough of a gradient will remain in place tonight since the high is not centered on top of us, so not expecting temps to completely bottom out, but valley areas should be the coolest nonetheless. These numbers were a bit cooler which seemed reasonable. Also kept overnight lows warmer in this area because of the increased mixing.
537 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 High pressure building behind a cold front across the region will bring northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts through 13/06Z.
We added start of precipitation as well, with short term solutions in pretty good agreement on the start of rain and freezing rain across the area mid to late Monday morning. Upper level low pressure system expected to move to near El Paso by the end of this TAF forecast.
Sharpening mid/upper trough will continue digging into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, before departing to our east tonight. Strong and gusty winds peaked for most areas early this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage, during a period of pressure rises of 3-4 mb per 3 hours. Given how winds have over performed a bit from model guidance today, decided to keep the higher gusts going for a few hours beyond what a consensus of models would suggest. High pressure to our south will bring anticyclonic low-level flow and cold advection for tonight, with lows dropping into the 20s. Winds will back southwesterly on Monday, in response to low pressure sliding southeast through Ontario. This will bring low- level warming, keeping mild temperatures around with highs mostly in the lower 40s.
1042 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A strong cold front tonight will usher in some more seasonably cool air starting tonight.
Cold front currently ATL-BHM will move steadily SE. Latest TAFs reflect potential for lower CIGS ahead of cold front late tonight through early morning. Offshore flow will continue through this evening ahead of approaching surface cold front. with winds shifting onshore to the NE Monday and advisory conditions expected as high pressure builds over north GA. Winds and seas relax Mon night into Tue as the ridge builds quickly offshore of the Fl Atlantic coast.
A low pressure system will bring a chance of valley rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures into Monday.
929 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front will sweep through late tonight.
A strong long wave ridge has set up along the west coast. The ridges. are warmer at night and occasionally breezy as low level easterly flow continues over the area. This pattern will persist until the upper level ridge breaks to the east of the area Monday night. At that point a short wave ejected from the upstream long wave trough will move onshore.
The 20z MSAS surface analysis showed a broad area of low pressure over southeast Ontario into Lake Huron with a cold front extended southwest into the Ohio Valley. High pressure was situated over the central Plains. The strong subsidence behind the departed cold front had cleared out most of the clouds from northeast WI with the exception of lake effect clouds from Vilas county to northern Door county. As the region becomes more influenced by the high pressure and winds become more westerly tonight, this lake effect threat would end.
520 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the central US through Sunday night before slowly sliding southeastward on Monday. Light westerly winds this evening will shift to to the south/southwest by Monday as the high moves southeast. Clear skies will result in overnight lows to drop into the low 20s across the entire forecast area.
Otherwise, the traditional cold spots that have more snow will stay cooler than areas with less snow. Monday should be a little warmer than today.
Winds will be light and the only clouds around are the high cirrus which does not usually help to hold temperatures much. There is an upper level low that will move into the southern plains for Monday. Have kept the low PoPs in the far south and will see how much gets into that area.
High pressure will build into Illinois on Monday, providing cool and dry conditions. Monday night will see a weak warm frontal circulation extend into southern Illinois from low pressure developing just southwest of Texas, causing increasing cloud cover south of I-74. For now, a dry forecast will continue Monday night, with above normal lows in the low 30s.
The latest water vapor imagery has an upper low moving through the Great Lakes. This feature will push a surface cold front through Central Alabama by Monday morning. High temperatures the next few days behind the front will be 10-15 degrees cooler, but still just above normal.
Ridging remains over the area with dry conditions expected for the next couple days.
In the ridges, this will likely be enhanced further as the lowering of the dynamic tropopause will force the layer of wind gusts into a smaller vertical extent, thus forcing higher gusts toward 55-60 kts there.
915 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Temperatures across the Mid-South continue to drop behind the cold front that is now located near the Gulf Coast. /issued 258 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ The cold front has passed Tupelo and will exit the CWA by 4 PM. Cooler and drier air will advect into the Mid-South, with dewpoints in the 20s area wide by sunrise. High pressure will build over the area, maintaining relatively light winds. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the low/mid 50s.
Models show an upper level ridge building northward across the west coast of the United States on Monday.
A low pressure system off the coast of northwest Mexico will keep moisture and instability over southern Utah through Monday. High pressure aloft to the west of Utah will bring a dry and stable air mass to northern Utah early in the week, then across the remainder of the region midweek. Upper low moving onshore over Baja California this afternoon.
647 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Strong cold front exits later this afternoon.
Surface analysis reveals strong cold front has passed through the CWA. Skies will remain clear this evening behind the front as high pressure and drier air works into the region. Expect lows to generally fall below the freezing mark for most areas. High pressure system continues to build into the region during the day Monday, and will nearly be on top of the CWA by Monday evening. Overnight lows Monday will drop near the freezing mark.
958 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Raised overnight temps slightly over ne Tx as cooler airmass backdooring into region. /issued 537 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ High pressure building behind a cold front across the region will bring northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts through 13/06Z.
Cold advection has kicked into full gear behind the departing cold front with temperatures falling back into the 50s this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area Monday setting up a mostly sunny day. After the cooler start, temperatures will bounce back into the mid 40s by the afternoon. Ridges may stay closer to 30.
Dry high pressure moving in from the northwest will bring mainly clear skies.
946 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Strong cold front exits giving very strong winds for mainly higher elevations of northern mountains with snow showers tonight.
High pressure moves in for Monday with a mix of sun and clouds. Weather will be mainly dry with the only chance for precipitation coming midweek as cooler air comes into the area.
Temperatures warmed into the 50s and even the low 60s along the Arkansas border. North winds will continue tonight bringing temperatures into the low 30s.
325 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017 Tonight an upper level low wl be moving eastward acrs nrn Mexico, just south of AZ. At the lower elevations, temps should generally be warm enough for rain rather than snow. With that upper low remaining to our south Mon night there wl still be chances for pcpn, mainly over the southern quarter of the state, with some additional light accumulations of snow in the mtns. The upper low then track into TX on Tue and drier conditions and warmer temps are expected over southern CO, along with some breezy northerly winds over the eastern plains.
958 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front crossing the region will move off the coast around midnight. Cool high pressure will build in for the first part of the work week.
/Tonight through Monday/ High pressure has settled into southern Nebraska and north central Kansas this afternoon. Temperatures remained mild this afternoon across Iowa despite a cold front moving through the state overnight. The area of high pressure will move east tonight and be centered over Missouri by late tonight. Increasing southwest winds and warm advection should lead to another mild day with readings a few degrees warmer that today.
A secondary surge of colder air aloft is evidenced by the evolution of the line of showers and thunderstorms that are now emerging into the ridges late this evening. In the ridges, this will likely be enhanced further as the lowering of the dynamic tropopause will force the layer of wind gusts into a smaller vertical extent, thus forcing higher gusts toward 55-60 kts there.
Subtle cooling in the boundary layer and an easing of the low level cold air advection will support a slow but steady decrease in the winds tonight.
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from western NC through central AL, accompanied by a very narrow band of scattered showers. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a rather flat ridge over much of the Southeast. The cold front will move southeast across our area overnight, with low temperatures in the mid 50s north, to upper 50s south.
/issued 258 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ The cold front has passed Tupelo and will exit the CWA by 4 PM. Cooler and drier air will advect into the Mid-South, with dewpoints in the 20s area wide by sunrise. High pressure will build over the area, maintaining relatively light winds. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the low/mid 50s.
Upper level ridge amplifies over the western United States and gradually pushes easterly towards the plains during the middle into the later portions of the work week.
Aloft, thick cirrus streams overhead, well ahead of a strong closed low over Baja California at midday. Clouds will remain thick, with gradually lowering ceilings, as upper low begins to approach through Sonora Mexico. Cloudy and cold, with temperatures actually running several degrees below normal, in the low to mid 40s.