Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convection across western Kansas was developing in response to an approaching northern stream upper trof across the northern Rockies. Decent 850-700 mb warm advection and moisture transport will develop across central Kansas as this trof moves east across the northern Plains. This should allow the high Plains convection to develop or move eastward across central Kansas tonight with highest PoPs close to the I-70 corridor.
What showers and storms do develop are expected to be over the coastal counties and over interior southeast Mississippi (along the western periphery of the deep layer ridging over the region). Otherwise just a temperature forecast with lows tonight ranging from the low to mid 70s across the region.
1119 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad subtropical ridge across the southeastern CONUS with a trough digging into the northwestern CONUS. Main threat will be locally strong winds, but the backbuilding nature of some of the convection in the high PWAT airmass (around 2 inches) will also lead to some localized flash flooding concerns as well.
/issued 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ Upper trough axis from 300-250 mb extended from the eastern TX Panhandle southwest to the Davis Mountains. Mid-level moisture has remained more resilient ahead of this trough, mainly over the eastern Permian Basin where numerous diurnal storms are noted. Farther west, subsidence behind the trough should keep convection suppressed to mostly stable Cu, but have inserted a broad mention of isolated storms through tonight as water vapor reveals additional lift and re- moistening upstream within additional cyclonic flow. Unlike recent days, less interference from low to mid clouds should allow for warmer max temps especially on the Caprock.
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Current thinking is that High Pressure. latest guidance is warmer than previous numbers and have bumped highs up a degree or so.
/issued 153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U. while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the Intermountain West.
an elevated thetae ridge axis and slightly higher precipitable water content to the atmosphere. Convection is exactly where it should be as the center of a large and expansive upper level ridge was centered across the Tenn Valley with the ridge axis extending westward into northern La. A narrow band of convection located near the LA/MS border is moving west northwest along the sw flank of this ridge and could come into our extreme eastern zones about the time this fcst goes into effect by 7 pm but overall. scattered convection will be possible just about anywhere this evening given the high precipitable water content across the region.
923 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will be North of the region Tonight, with continued onshore flow.
Into the evening, a short wave trough is evident on latest water vapor imagery, lifting east and northeast off the western high plains of NM/CO this morning and currently crossing the Panhandles. For the weekend, with the southern plains wedged between a broad, lumbering ridge to the east and a trough to the west there will be low chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunder near daily. In short, the broad 500mb ridge will continue to reside over the eastern U.
Manual 12z upper-air analysis showed a long-wave trough from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the southern Rockies with a downstream sub-tropical high centered over the southern Appalachians. At the surface, 18z mesoanalysis placed a low over northeast Kansas -- coincident with the upper-air system-- with an associated warm frontal segment extending northeast through northwest Missouri into south-central Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms now developing over northeast Kansas in association with the above-mentioned impulse are expected to spread northeast along the warm front with portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa being impacted by this activity. Mid-level heights will rebound on Saturday into Saturday night with the passage of the polar-branch trough (mentioned above) to our northeast.
Surface observations show the frontal boundary that had been stalled out over far southeast KS was lifting into east central KS as a warm front. Visible satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud cover across eastern KS, which allowed afternoon temperatures to reach into the low 80s. In contrast, extensive cloud cover remained in place across north central Kansas today, keeping temperatures cooler near 70 degrees. With expansive cloud cover expected across much of the outlook area, have lowered high temperatures by a couple of degrees, into the low/mid 80s.
However, coverage of pcpn may pick up again toward morning as decent trof begins crossing the CWA. Upper level trough will move east across the Dakotas overnight and into Saturday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
1013 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening.
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper level trough will move east across the Dakotas overnight and into Saturday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
1011 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Update Low pressure will move toward northern Lower Michigan Saturday.
Muggy airmass remains with temps currently in the low to mid 70s. Only exception to this is across far eastern/southeastern counties as drier air underneath the ridge aloft pokes into the area. Upper wave generating convection over the western Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys currently will rotate around the flank of the ridge overnight and may produce an uptick in convective coverage over western counties during the predawn hours.
However, the low level airmass may become so saturated that an LIFR ceiling could develop here.
945 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight.
514 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern CO, with trough stretching northward across eastern WY into MT. Upper level analysis shows broad trough across the Rockies and high plains, with numerous disturbances within the trough across the region. Temps are mostly in the 60s, with 50s across the higher Black Hills. Unsettled weather will continue through much of tonight, then dry and warmer weather will return for the weekend as the upper trough shifts east of the region on Saturday.
732 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
823 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure axis moves offshore tonight as a weak cold front slowly drops into the region on Saturday.
A somewhat complicated synoptic pattern this afternoon with a pair of troughs approaching the Northland. The first was located over the Canadian Prairies and Dakotas and the second over the lower Missouri Valley. The northern trough will advance toward the area tonight and strengthen as it approaches. 00Z runs of the High-Res ARW and NMM cores seem to be handling the present situation the best and leaned heavily on them for this package. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly across the area, from less than one-tenth of an inch on the low end, to an inch or more for the areas which see the storms.
High pressure north of the region and lower pressure associated with a tropical wave and weak area of low pressure over the central Bahamas will maintain a moderate easterly wind flow over the region the remainder of tonight through Saturday with more showers and storms developing over the region by mid day on Saturday as deep layered moisture (PW aoa 2 inches) remains over the region. High pressure to the north of the waters combined with a tropical wave and weak area of low pressure over the central Bahamas will maintain northeast to east winds in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore and around 15 knots offshore with seas of 2 to 3 feet the remainder of tonight through Saturday with higher wind and seas possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
610 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will build across the tonight. A warm front will lift through the state Tuesday and bring a brief period of sleet an freezing rain in the morning.
With overcast conditions and showers at times, highs today should stay in the low to mid 60s. The pressure gradient gradually tightens today between the deepening cyclone in the Northern Plains and high pressure over the Outer Banks. The main impact weather in the short term will occur tonight through tomorrow morning along and ahead of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer wind shear just ahead of the cold front are expected to support the development of a squall line across IL and MO late this evening and overnight.
Freezing levels will start out the day around 2,200 feet so snow remains a good possibility for higher elevation locations.
610 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will move offshore this afternoon.
Most of this activity is expected to dissipate this afternoon, as high pressure builds from the Northeast.
Finally, the high winds are likely to create some blowing dust issues in Central Kansas. While this incoming front is causing the high winds and fire danger issues in the Central and Western portions of the state, this front will allow for some good moisture transport in the Eastern portions of the State.
613 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will push off the east coast today. A cold front will sweep southeast across the region late Tuesday.
The cold front will be arriving by this time on Tuesday which will help to limit exposure of the boundary to daytime heating for tomorrow. The day two outlook is still marginal for most of our counties in E TX and our the LA parishes awaiting the front and will see the diminished threat as the winds shift with the cold front from West to East during the day on Tuesday. The next cold front will be arriving hopefully late in the weekend with another round of showers and Thunderstorms for the area as a 1024mb high centers even farther North allowing for our springy Winter to continue into mid month.
637 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Aviation A deepening low pressure system located in the Upper Plains will track into the Canadian Prairies tonight. Later tonight and Tuesday morning a cold front will track eastward through the area triggering showers and even a few thunderstorms.
The upper ridge will amplify a bit today but also shift east of the lower OH and TN valleys in advance of the upper trof entering the central U. A distinct warm conveyor belt will shift into the lower MS valley this evening, associated with the low level jet of 50-65kt. This will produce mostly light precipitation initially in advance of the cold front in MO, AR, and TX. The cold front will drop southeast and approach northwest AL before midday. This will be when the highest chance of thunderstorms will occur. Precipitation will exit quickly Tuesday evening as the cold front continues to progress to the southeast.
609 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure along the coast will move offshore Today.
Strong cold front will progress west to east across our counties this morning. Will likely see a temporary lull in the winds, and although it will be quite windy, winds will decrease with nighttime cooling, though will still continue the high wind warning since Tuesday will be quite windy as well.
912 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 A warm front over Lake Erie will continue to move north of the area today. Low pressure over the Dakotas will move northeast to northern Ontario by Tuesday night forcing a cold front east across the local area Tuesday afternoon.
1027 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will push off the east coast today. A cold front will sweep southeast across the region late Tuesday.
An intense upper level trough currently moving through the northern and central Rockies early this morning. Ahead of this trough, a strong pressure gradient and low level jet has resulted in sustained 30 mph winds at times from Dodge City to Hays overnight but winds are beginning to subside as these features begin to edge off to the east. The upper level trough will move out over the northern and central Plains today. A band of very strong mid level winds, through the base of the upper trough, will propagate east out over southwest and central Kansas through the afternoon hours.
Over the lower elevations, sustained speeds of at least 40 gusting to at least 60 mph are expected. Strong west to northwest flow aloft across the region Monday night slowly moderates through the day Tuesday and becomes more westerly into Tuesday night as strong jet stream and passing upper trough continues to translate north and east of the area into the Upper Midwest. Latest models continue to indicate west to northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph mixing down across the area through the late morning and afternoon, with the strongest winds expected across the higher terrain and northern portions of the eastern plains. With that said, have issued a fire weather watch from 18z through 00Z Wed for areas north and east of the highway 50 corridor, save Otero and Bent Counties, where winds may not meet the 3 hour criteria.
748 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will push off the east coast today. A cold front will sweep southeast across the region late Tuesday.
A mid level trough over the plains will move toward the Mid Mississippi Valley. The assoicated cold front will push into the Mid-South overnight with increasing southerly winds. The severe threat has increased some as the mid level trough is digging a little further south than previous runs bringing the belt of higher mid level winds a little closer. dewpoints in the lower 60s and LIs of -2C to -3C. Skies will clear out Tuesday night as high pressure builds in.
Tonight, a cold front will approach, with increasing PoPs for showers and thunderstorms.
Lighter winds and much cooler temperature are expected today under a dry northwest flow aloft.
The approach of a cold front will bring gusty winds with widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms, especially late tonight through midday Tuesday.
Have updated the forecast to reflect the lower snow levels, otherwise the ongoing forecast remains on track for the day. Freezing levels will start out the day around 2,200 feet so snow remains a good possibility for higher elevation locations.
Cooler air will filter into the region tonight and Monday behind a cold front with slightly colder than average temperatures. A dry cold front is currently moving across our CWA and is associated with a broad upper level trough which is clearly seen on satellite IR and water vapor imagery. The best dynamics with this trough are well to our north in Utah which is currently seeing light showers in the area.
505 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area today in advance of a cold front that will move through on Tuesday. High pressure will then move in for the middle of the week, before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Temperatures will climb back into the 60s across most locations on Tuesday before a cold front moves through the region.
620 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Increasing southerly winds will bring warmer air into the region with shower chances increasing by this afternoon. A cold front will sweep in tonight into early Tuesday accompanied by a line of showers and a few thunderstorms. A few more days of warmer weather will be in store for the region, but at a cost. Focus shifts to cold front which will sweep through late tonight into Tuesday. Pops will subsequently increase as the front approaches but some concern how much shower activity will occur well ahead of the main front and associated upper level trough.
The cold front that moved south over North Central Montana yesterday will also retreat north to near a Cut Bank to Lewistown line today, which should help warm the plains back into the upper 20s to lower 30s as breezy west-northwest winds mix down to the surface. This pattern of mainly mountain snow, breezy westerly winds, cooler than normal temperatures, patchy blowing snow, and possible afternoon snow showers over the plains will continue through Tuesday, as lows mostly fall back into the teens overnight.
959 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will cross the region today. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday.
but still expect late afternoon cape values around 1500-2000 J/kg to develop in the highly sheared environment. Cooler/drier weather is in store for Tuesday.
333 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 A cold front continues to pass over the area this morning, resulting in strong gusty southwesterly and mountain snow. Cold air will continue to infiltrate the area today resulting in much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday as weak high pressure begins to build over the area. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure over the western states with a ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley.
659 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 A warm front over Lake Erie will continue to move north of the area today. Low pressure over the Dakotas will move northeast to northern Ontario by Tuesday night forcing a cold front east across the local area Tuesday afternoon.
but a cold front will be dropping SE into the state. Today Through Tuesday Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough digging across the mountain west into the high plains. As the upper trough digs into the upper plains, it is expected to become negatively tilted. By midnight Tuesday, the cold front is expected to move into Arkansas with a strong line of thunderstorms just ahead or along the boundary. The highest risk will be across portions of northern and western Arkansas which lies in the most unstable air. At some point as the cold front reaches central to southeastern Arkansas, low level stable air should hinder strong winds mixing down to the surface. The cold front is expected to clear the state by early afternoon with cooler and drier air following.
933 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area today in advance of a cold front that will move through on Tuesday. High pressure will then move in for the middle of the week, before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Used a more narrow range of highs from about 60-65 degrees before a cold front moves through the region.
5" today while lift will increase ahead of the incoming trough.
Today Through Tuesday Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough digging across the mountain west into the high plains. As the upper trough digs into the upper plains, it is expected to become negatively tilted. By midnight Tuesday, the cold front is expected to move into Arkansas with a strong line of thunderstorms just ahead or along the boundary. The highest risk will be across portions of northern and western Arkansas which lies in the most unstable air. At some point as the cold front reaches central to southeastern Arkansas, low level stable air should hinder strong winds mixing down to the surface. The cold front is expected to clear the state by early afternoon with cooler and drier air following.
1001 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast continues to control the weather over the area.
1054 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure remains situated along the Atlantic coastline near the Delmarva, surface observations indicate pressures near 1035 mb. Temperatures are in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Cool northwesterly flow continues across NorCal on the backside of the large upper trough moving across the West. Temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the teens and 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Ridging from the eastern Pacific will help to further taper showers by Tuesday with the best chances retreating to the northern mountains.
343 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 Cooler air will filter into the region tonight and Monday behind a cold front with slightly colder than average temperatures. A dry cold front is currently moving across our CWA and is associated with a broad upper level trough which is clearly seen on satellite IR and water vapor imagery. The best dynamics with this trough are well to our north in Utah which is currently seeing light showers in the area.
503 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will retreat offshore today, allowing warmer air to return under mostly sunny skies. A warm front will approach on Tuesday, bringing scattered showers which may start off as light mixed precipitation before quickly going over to rain.
530 AM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 Winds are decreasing at low elevations behind the departing cold front. A cold front continues to pass over the area this morning, resulting in strong gusty southwesterly and mountain snow. Cold air will continue to infiltrate the area today resulting in much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday as weak high pressure begins to build over the area. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure over the western states with a ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley.
Stout southeasterlies will aid in maintaining this low stratus with higher off-the-surface 30 knot winds possibly mixing down to support 20-25 knot gusts through early afternoon. An approaching late period cold front will slightly veer winds more west of south and increase convective chances across more interior terminals. Better rain chances come tomorrow as a cold front works its way into the area.
413 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 An upper analysis shows a weak ridge over the eastern third of the country with a trough over the west. The trough to the west will be deepening into a closed low as it tracks east across the middle of the country Tuesday. A cold front associated with this trough will be approaching the CWA from the north late in the day.
934 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure near the NC coast this morning will push slowly offshore into the afternoon. High pressure moves off of the eastern seaboard and into the western Atlc slowly today while remaining fairly strong.
Satellite loops show the large and cold upper trough continuing to push east over the interior West this morning. Otherwise, East Pacific high pressure will build in and shift the storm track northward for the rest of the week. Patchy frost is likely with a few areas reaching the freezing mark this morning.
652 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area today in advance of a cold front that will move through on Tuesday. High pressure will then move in for the middle of the week, before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Temperatures will climb back into the 60s across most locations on Tuesday before a cold front moves through the region.
A deepening mid level trough, currently located over eastern Montana, will continue to dig and eventually take on a negative tilt and close off over North Dakota today. At the surface, low pressure will start to develop over the southwestern part of the state. Rapid cyclogenesis will take place as this low propagates quickly northeast across the state, eventually moving into southeastern Manitoba by this evening. The GFS has been consistent with very strong pressure rises as the low races northeast.
921 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will move offshore this afternoon.