Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 244 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends continue to depict an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level ridge axis will provide precipitation free conditions across the Mid-South tonight but will gradually shift east overnight as an upper level low over the West Coast of the United States moves east into the Central Plains.
Initially the precipitation over the lower elevations will evaporate before reaching the ground, but should eventually reach the surface. and we expect snow to reach the lower elevations first in Wheatland County this evening then in areas farther east including the Billings area, after midnight MST. There is a slight chance of freezing rain east of Billings as models show a layer of above-freezing air aloft, although they also show this layer as being dry, so precipitation may not reach the ground as freezing rain. Any snow or mixed precipitation will diminish Saturday afternoon as the second upper trough moves eastward away from the area.
/Issued 610 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021/ Tonight through Saturday should be quiet as an upper ridge moves across the southeast. A strong upper closed low will move rapidly into the Mid MS Valley Saturday night.
At the same time, an area of low pressure over the central U. Dry and slightly warmer conditions Sat as the ridge over the Florida peninsula shifts eastward, resulting in the winds veering to the E/ESE around 10 mph. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the low 40s across northern Lake and northwest Volusia counties, mid to upper 40s everywhere else, except low 50s along the immediate Space/Treasure Coasts. High pressure near the mid Atlc coast will get nudged into the western Atlc during the period. This will force a weakening cold frontal boundary southeastward into the central FL peninsula ahead of sunrise Mon morning. The highest threat will be along/north of I-4 (40- 50pct) to 20-30pct across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee County.
Strong low pressure system moving across the southern plains during the next 24 hours will have significant impact on flight conditions. /Issued Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK/ Large trough over California/Nevada will approach Oklahoma tonight and move across the forecast area on Saturday. As the mid-level trough approaches, moisture depth will increase over the area and rain will start to develop and move into the forecast area late tonight, most likely after midnight, then become widespread Saturday morning before moving out of the area by sunset. A cold front will move through Saturday afternoon and evening, so cooler temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week.
A mostly clear sky and upper level ridging are to thank for sub-freezing temps overnight.
436 PM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 A warm front extends from NW to SE across the area from north of Belle Fourche to near Valentine, Neb. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers.
on the eastern periphery of an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. Tonight: Expect sensible weather similar to last night, with colder temperatures in the northeast, warmer temperatures in the southwest, and dense fog developing late this evening -- mainly north and east of Colby where a robust snowpack persists and the elevation is lower /cold airmass is deeper/.
700 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Late afternoon analysis has upper level ridging stretching north over the nation's mid-section. High pressure slides across the eastern US and out over the Atlantic during the weekend with winds slowly veering. The high pressure moves away Sun night as a cold front approaches with showers and a few thunderstorms. as high pressure builds in Mon.
553 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Upper trough currently over the California coast still expected to dig across the southwestern U. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm and windy south winds will keep temperatures warmer than average. The NBM was a bit cool biased with the afternoon MaxT, as well as the winds, so instead used a slighlty warmer and windier CONSMOS. By Saturday evening, expecting the gusts to have gone down as lighter north winds will start bringing in cooler air.
351 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Sfc analysis shows high pres centered over the Ohio Valley, ridging southward toward the Lower MS Valley. Strong winds around the southeastern flank of the trough are spreading considerable Pac moisture acrs the Rockies, with this moisture expected to overspread the region Saturday as the system moves into the southern plains 24 The increase in low level moisture and clouds will help to moderate temperatures tonight into Saturday. Anticipate overnight temps about 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight than last night, with lows ranging from the middle 40s acrs cntl LA to the lower 50s acrs SE TX. The ridge aloft will break down as the west coast trough quickly advances east acrs the Rockies.
Thin cirrus clouds were moving over ridge centered across the Mississippi Valley and beginning to move into the eastern Tennessee Valley.
Mostly dry weather conditions and cooler temperatures are expected tonight before light rain returns to the North Bay early Saturday.
The last of the fog finally lifted, or at least improved in visibility in our west, no thanks to the low sun angle of January. Look for some light icing from freezing fog, which will possibly impact roadways and make them slick. Adding insult to injury will be the potential for wintry mix/light freezing drizzle with a stubborn dry mid-level forecast quite consistently. Both the HRRR and NAM advertise the potential of freezing drizzle through Saturday evening, save the short period Saturday afternoon when we may be just above freezing. Still could be a bit of blowing snow, especially farther northwest where it would be less likely to get freezing drizzle to tamp down blowing snow. I did highlight slick conditions from freezing fog development tonight/Saturday. In reality, it may be from both freezing fog and freezing drizzle.
The southeast Utah ranges and San Juans will see snow first this evening by 8pm or so, with light snow overspreading the remainder of the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado before midnight. Valley locations should see their best opportunity for precipitation along and just behind the passage of a cold front, set to move through in the 9pm to midnight timeframe. The coming week will start under the influence of a ridge of high pressure.
801 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
The widespread freezing fog has remained north the Hays vicinity though the early afternoon and temperatures elsewhere have been slow to respond given the increasing/extensive cloud cover over the area. However GFSLAmp indicated high probability for VLIFR type ceilings to rapidly develop are about 9z as the rain and possibly brief freezing rain type lifts rapidly north into central Kansas before dawn. The period of rain will be brief as the low pressure moves out quickly and deep northwest flow takes over the he rest of the afternoon.
310 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 A mid/upper ridge across the central CONUS will bring mild late January conditions to snow-free areas of Kansas this afternoon while a vigorous mid/upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting that low ceilings and visibilities will be a little more robust along the southern fringe of the snowpack compared to last night. Contingency forecast hydrographs do not support any runoff problems at this time even with the wet and near freezing soil conditions. Large-scale forcing for subsidence will quickly overspread the area in the wake of the trough on Sat evening with dry weather prevailing.
/issued 700 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021/ Late afternoon analysis has upper level ridging stretching north over the nation's mid-section. High pressure slides across the eastern US and out over the Atlantic during the weekend with winds slowly veering. The high pressure moves away Sun night as a cold front approaches with showers and a few thunderstorms. as high pressure builds in Mon.
252 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Satellite shows mid-level low near the 4-Corners region with an assocd moist plume from wrn OK to the Lower Trans Pecos. The attendant Pacific cold front was e of Holloman-Sierra Blanca.
The heavy rainfall today will come courtesy of a upper level trough which is moving through the southern Rockies this morning. This trough will develop a nearly stacked low over SW KS this morning and move into SE KS by late this afternoon. This evening the the low will pass through the southern CWA and push east of the area.
A warm front extends from NW to SE across the area from north of Belle Fourche to near Valentine, Neb. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers.
However, through the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and along the Rio Grande guidance continues to suggest a lowering of ceilings overnight into IFR range and eventually LIFR range 12Z-15Z just ahead of a cold front. Improving conditions to VFR are expected at DRT 16Z-18Z behind the cold front and at SAT/AUS 18Z-20Z. As high pressure peels farther away from the region, southerly flow will continue to advect higher dewpoints northward while paving the way for some advection fog. After midnight, a compact upper low will lift across the Four Corners and into Kansas by daybreak while sending a modified Pacific cold front our way. Highs tomorrow are still warmer than today thanks to dry westerly/downslope flow, yet as winds slacken tomorrow night lows should return to the 40s for most locales.
325 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Weak mid level ridging over the Mississippi River Valley and Gulf of Mexico will shift east into the Atlantic through the weekend as a broad mid level trough digs into the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sprawled across the eastern US today will keep quiet weather conditions in place, with a cool start to the morning giving way to seasonable afternoon temperatures under light east to southeast winds.
A mid/upper ridge across the central CONUS will bring mild late January conditions to snow-free areas of Kansas this afternoon while a vigorous mid/upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting that low ceilings and visibilities will be a little more robust along the southern fringe of the snowpack compared to last night. Contingency forecast hydrographs do not support any runoff problems at this time even with the wet and near freezing soil conditions. Large-scale forcing for subsidence will quickly overspread the area in the wake of the trough on Sat evening with dry weather prevailing.
1055 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
The highest amounts predicted are for the southern zones from Van Buren County eastward to Jackson County.
200 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Water vapor shows split trof moving out of the Rockies into the Plains, with main upper low over the Southern Rockies early this morning. Additionally, freezing drizzle looks to be more of an issue east of our zones, but will continue to monitor. Increasing northwest winds later this morning and afternoon behind an eastward moving surface trof should scour out much of the dense fog, and may also result in some light snow, but little in the way of accumulations expected. Decreasing clouds expected tonight from west to east as upper trof shifts east of the Plains.
Look for thickening and lowering clouds today as low pressure approaches the region, but precip will take its sweet time with plenty of low-level dry air to overcome. Cloud cover will keep max temps on the lower end of guidance, but temps do remain far enough above freezing to keep the precip almost entirely rain.
the remainder of the forecast remains on track with fog until midday eastern areas along with a chance for freezing drizzle. Currently, the area sits in southwesterly flow aloft, with a mid- level trough axis positioned across CA/NV. The trough over CA/NV will continue to move eastward overnight and approach the area as an open wave. This leads to freezing drizzle as the primary p-type for areas generally east and northeast of a Burwell to Springview line.
Strong low pressure system will move through the area during the next 24 hours. Pacific cold front will move into parts of NE OK and NW AR with winds becoming NW and MVFR ceilings returning. Instability will remain marginal with SBCAPES in the 250-750 j/kg range at the highest.
Instability will remain marginal with SBCAPES in the 250-750 j/kg range at the highest.
An upper trough was moving eastward from the Desert Southwest towards the Texas Panhandle early this morning. High pressure will then shift into the western Atlantic tonight, as the area of low pressure weakens and moves towards southern Illinois. A weak coastal trough will move inland this afternoon, and low level moisture and cumulus clouds will increase. Temperatures will rebound today into the lower 60s across interior southeast Georgia, and the mid 60s to around 70 degrees across northeast Florida. Temperatures tonight will be around 15 degrees warmer due to south to southeasterly low level flow ahead of the front, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 across southeast Georgia, and the low to mid 50s across northeast Florida.
Snow showers have ended tonight in eastern Nevada as a trough of low pressure cleared the state.
1048 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Upper trough currently over the California coast still expected to dig across the southwestern U. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm and windy south winds will keep temperatures warmer than average. The NBM was a bit cool biased with the afternoon MaxT, as well as the winds, so instead used a slighlty warmer and windier CONSMOS. By Saturday evening, expecting the gusts to have gone down as lighter north winds will start bringing in cooler air.
Rainfall amounts will be generally less than one-half inch, with the higher amounts north of I-20. Decent low level warm air advection today should produce afternoon temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday, but the really cold air will arrive Sunday night.
An upper level trough passes through western United States, with most of the energy remaining to our south as it moves across The Four Corners region and eastward across central U. Snowfall continues across southwest Montana until late this morning, when a ridge begins to build into the area from the west. At the onset of the approach of this ridge, a moderately tight westerly cross- barrier flow develops across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, causing some gusty winds, especially in that area. Subsidence and drying associated with said ridge favor mild weather through the weekend, and a warming trend begins. As is common, upstream from a building upper level ridge, an upper level trof digs deep along The U.
AM PST Sat Jan 30 2021 The weather this weekend will be dry with a warming trend as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
420 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Freezing drizzle has materialized across a good portion of the CWA, especially northern areas. Several web cams across north central SD are also showing evidence of freezing drizzle. Expect the fog and freezing drizzle to persist through the day, with gradual improvements from west to east this evening/overnight. Sunday shows a trend of clearing skies from west to east as warmer air also moves in.
Widespread freezing drizzle and dense fog are the two main challenges for the short term. Further south and east, freezing drizzle has become more widespread and should continue through the morning and into the afternoon, tapering off in the west and north through the day.
Freezing heights drop to snow supportive levels aft 06Z.
While not amplifed yet a large ridge is beginning to form over the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.
Low pressure currently organizing in the lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado will track eastward today. Current temps across the area are in the upper 20s and lower 30s, so there appears to be a narrow window of opportunity for light freezing rain upon precip onset. With marginal temps and increasing southeasterly flow quickly pushing readings above the freezing mark by mid-morning, do not think icing will be an issue. As low pressure tracks into southern Indiana, northerly flow on its back side will allow the lingering rain to mix with or change to snow as far south as the I-70 corridor by Sunday afternoon. Snow accumulations will be mitigated by temps above freezing as well as the decreasing precip intensity.
354 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Freezing drizzle and light snow is still expected today with higher accumulation possible along portions of the North Shore. Soundings continue to support freezing drizzle, especially over our southwest area. However, some freezing drizzle will be possible over northwest Wisconsin and much of northern Minnesota as well. The freezing drizzle will be most likely today then saturation increases tonight with snow the most likely precip type. The high resolution models continue to be quite bullish on QPF along the North Shore today into tonight, but especially today. The GFS/ECMWF ensemble members do not support the high snowfall either. A quieter period is in store Sunday night through through mid week with an upstream ridge eventually moving over the region.
443 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 High pressure will move east of the CWA today bringing an increase in cloud cover with a primarily dry day for the daylight hours. A much warmer day with highs approaching 70 as a brief return flow ahead of the next system takes place. The trough will drag an associated frontal boundary into the Arklatex area by this evening bringing a round of showers into the area with the best chances of rain for most areas being between midnight and sunrise on Sunday.
528 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 A low pressure system will move across the area later today, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and some potential for thunderstorms. Temperatures remain above freezing. Temperatures will remain above freezing Sunday (highs in the upper 30s to low 40s), but there is a question of how long drizzle/flurries persist, potentially into Sunday night when temps fall into the mid to upper 20s. Will have to monitor for potential for freezing drizzle or light snow showers.
The heavy rainfall today will come courtesy of a upper level trough which is moving through the southern Rockies this morning. This trough will develop a nearly stacked low over SW KS this morning and move into SE KS by late this afternoon. This evening the the low will pass through the southern CWA and push east of the area. Otherwise expect a much cooler day on Sunday with highs in the 30s.
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021/ An upper level trough passes through western United States, with most of the energy remaining to our south as it moves across The Four Corners region and eastward across central U. Snowfall continues across southwest Montana until late this morning, when a ridge begins to build into the area from the west. At the onset of the approach of this ridge, a moderately tight westerly cross- barrier flow develops across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, causing some gusty winds, especially in that area. Subsidence and drying associated with said ridge favor mild weather through the weekend, and a warming trend begins. As is common, upstream from a building upper level ridge, an upper level trof digs deep along The U.
South winds wl ramp up later this mrng and cont thru the aftn hrs ahead of the low.
The system cold front pushes across the forecast area from late afternoon through late evening with gusty post frontal winds continuing through the day Sunday.
440 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Water vapor shows split trof moving out of the Rockies into the Plains, with main upper low over the Southern Rockies early this morning. Additionally, freezing drizzle looks to be more of an issue east of our zones, but will continue to monitor. Increasing northwest winds later this morning and afternoon behind an eastward moving surface trof should scour out much of the dense fog, and may also result in some light snow, but little in the way of accumulations expected. Decreasing clouds expected tonight from west to east as upper trof shifts east of the Plains.
Another forecast challenge is the possibility of freezing precipitation. This warm air aloft and below freezing surface temperatures suggest that freezing drizzle will be the main precipitation type. On Sunday, an upper level ridge will begin to move over the Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure will begin to develop, leading to clearing skies and increasing temperatures, with highs in the 40s in the area.
Precipitation will begin mainly west of the Mississippi River this morning as light freezing rain and then spread into southwest and west central Wisconsin this afternoon. With sub-freezing dew points, there will even be freezing rain with temperature above freezing due to evaporative cooling. The highest ice totals will be in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. This freezing rain will result in slippery travel conditions. Snow totals will range from 2 to 6 inches with the highest totals across northeast Iowa and from southwest into central Wisconsin. In the wake of this weekend's system, benign weather will return through the first half of the coming week as broad surface to mid- level ridging spreads across the central US.
Those totals may be enhanced late this afternoon into this evening by the potential for isolated thunderstorms as elevated instability increases slightly ahead of the low. Most of the precipitation should be wrapping up around midnight, but low clouds and periods of light rain and drizzle are likely to linger through much of Sunday and Sunday night as energy rotating around the upper low acts on lingering low level moisture.
A cold front will move into the Southeast tonight, and cumulus clouds will increase. An upper trough was moving eastward from the Desert Southwest towards the Texas Panhandle early this morning. High pressure will then shift into the western Atlantic tonight, as the area of low pressure weakens and moves towards southern Illinois. A weak coastal trough will move inland this afternoon, and low level moisture and cumulus clouds will increase. Temperatures will rebound today into the lower 60s across interior southeast Georgia, and the mid 60s to around 70 degrees across northeast Florida. Temperatures tonight will be around 15 degrees warmer due to south to southeasterly low level flow ahead of the front, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 across southeast Georgia, and the low to mid 50s across northeast Florida.
447 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 A developing low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the region tonight through Sunday night.
Dry conditions once again with seasonal high temperatures expected today as a weak inverted trough washes out as E-SE flow dominates across ECFL, strengthening as winds veer southerly tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the low 70s with overnight lows in the the 50s for all but low 60s for coastal Martin County.
501 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 A developing low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the region tonight through Sunday night.
348 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 A low pressure system will move across the area later today, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and some potential for thunderstorms. Temperatures remain above freezing. Temperatures will remain above freezing Sunday (highs in the upper 30s to low 40s), but there is a question of how long drizzle/flurries persist, potentially into Sunday night when temps fall into the mid to upper 20s. Will have to monitor for potential for freezing drizzle or light snow showers.