Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST OF I-55. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIDGE CONTINUES SLOWLY BUILDING EAST AND ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL STILL MANAGE TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN LOCALLY.
312 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THIS RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW'S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA.
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS FAR FROM CLEAR-CUT TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING MORE THAN 5 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY WHILE SEVERAL OTHER ARE 5 DEGREES OR COOLER.
KEEPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR. 50H RIDGE. PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET SIDE. SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. WITH 70H RIDGE RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
OVERTOP OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
A FEW WEAK WAVES ON THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROFS JUTTED TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AND THE OTHER BEING A SFC FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACRS MN INTO NORTHERN WI KICKING UP SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIGGING TROF AXIS. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL UNDER A BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION. FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
Along with the convection, abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side for early July, with highs only in the low 80s. The passage of the upper wave will also push the low level front a bit further south, allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to build into the area overnight. Lows tonight look to fall into the low to mid 60s, as dewpoints drop into the low 60s. The 4th of July is actually looking rather pleasant at this point, with highs in the low to mid 80s, and partly cloudy skies.
SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THEM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. BIG STORY NUMBER ONE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE CANADIAN SYSTEM AT THE GUSTY WINDS IT WILL BRING WITH IT.
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN ITS STRENGTH AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF ITS AXIS AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AND OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
1205 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY TO MORE SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CELLS SHOULD MOVE SLOWER AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE ERRATIC TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IF THE HIGH SINKS FAR ENOUGH S.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VERY GRADUALLY COOL DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO LIGHT UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE BACK UP.
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
OTHERWISE, SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
Independence Day will still be warm, but a few degrees cooler than Saturday.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
BUT THE LOWER CIGS IN IFR CATEGORY WOULD HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT. THERE WAS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND TROUGH REMAINING IN BALANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING OFF THE EASTERN TROUGH.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN CO. AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY OVER NRN CO AS WE REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OFF A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE IN BY MIDWEEK TO INCREASE THE NIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING. TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY RUNNING COOLER WITH 24 HR CHANGES RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 0 TO -8.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN BERNARDINOS WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST DUE TO THE AIR BEING TOO DRY.
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST FORCING IS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CNTL AND SOUTH FL WHILE A MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AMPLIFIES AND MOVES NE ACROSS TENN AND WEST VA. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015 Surface observations across the area indicate a lack of any discernible weather-making boundaries, with weak flow as an area of weak low pressure sits over the Southern Plains. Through the morning hours this trough will continue its trek to the south/southeast, dragging with it the better chances for rain.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
331 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. GENERAL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE DAY WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AND TROUGH AXIS FOR FOCUS CAN'T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 8OS.
SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EASTERN TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. OVER THE EAST THE TROUGH PERSISTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A TROUGH APPROACHING WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN AND ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE HEARTLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM PRESSURE TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A WEAKENED STATE WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL WI. 925 TEMPS NUDGE A BIT MORE SO WARMER.
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AND GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. FRIES SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE TROUGHING.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHERE A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA. THERE IS A TROUGH PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TO THE EAST OF THAT EXISTS A REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT.
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE. MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST OF I-55. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
349 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. I WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. NAM AND ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER.
TODAY LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST.
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT.
AN EARLIER UPDATE WAS SENT TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO FAR SE OK AND WRN AR.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
TO MAYBE THE LOW 80S TODAY. COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. IN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN.
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH LINGERING WEAK TROF ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD FOSTER CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER ISOLATED.
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST WERE WARMER THAN FURTHER WEST SO ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
AT LOW LEVELS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT OVERALL THIS AIR IS A LITTLE COOLER AND NOT REALLY ANY MORE MOIST THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS. ON SUNDAY SURFACE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS YEAR.
A BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STEADILY INCREASING TEMPS SUNDAY AND MON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND 22Z WITH EXCELLENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM 100 KT 250 MB JET AND 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.
WV SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WE ARE STARTING OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR HOW QUICKLY WE SCATTER OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE TEMPS.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Rest of today: No big changes to the fcst as the region remains under a wide mid-level dry slot wedged between a well-defined short- wave trough in SW BC and a very weak nearly stnry frontal boundary over Nrn Oregon.
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT 700-500MB INVERTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OUT OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. /EC/ THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. UPPER DIV EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER.
WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AS SOME INCREASED HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FROM BILL. THE ATTENTION TURNS FROM BILL TO DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH AN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SO THINK LOCATIONS IN THE EAST MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BUT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI WITH N-NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF WE CAN GET THIS OUT OF HERE AND HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN FOR RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN THE FORECAST DATABASE HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGH POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL BUILD IN ON HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. MODEL DATA INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
1048 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT 700-500MB INVERTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OUT OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT.
WEATHER SHOULD BE IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 72 94 73 / 60 20 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 70 93 73 / 70 50 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 71 93 72 / 80 60 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 67 90 69 / 80 60 20 30.
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY.
550 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CHEYENNE CURRENTLY. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MORE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF DEPARTED.