Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thermal ridging will build eastward across Minnesota throughout the day Friday while dew points remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s. In addition, the low level jet focuses across the Great Lakes. Only moisture pooling along the frontal boundary, and some lift associated with modest convergence will keep percentages in the high chance category with the best coverage over western Wisconsin. The thermal ridge will move across the area during peak heating but 92H/85H temperatures are not as extreme as in previously forecast.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and provide a break in the excessive heat for a few days. Tonight, will be a cooler night with most areas in the 50s for lows with clear skies and light winds. Upper trough moves to the east on Saturday and high pressure will bring light winds and clear skies.
117 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 West to northwest flow aloft continues across the region as upper level high pressure remains anchored across the Four Corners region.
A heat advisory has been issued for part of the area with the highest likelihood of seeing widespread heat advisory conditions being met. A semi-permanent and building anticyclone sets up and expands over the southwestern into central portions of the CONUS.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners this afternoon, and the westward-moving trough over the Permian Basin. The trough is forecast to keep pushing west, to the southern AZ/NM border by 12Z Saturday, nudging the upper ridge into NV/UT.
/NEW/ /Friday through Saturday Night/ A slow moving upper low will continue a westward track on Friday allowing stronger subtropical ridging to build in over the Southern Plains. With the upper trough well removed from the area on Saturday and ridging firmly in place, a dry forecast is expected with temperatures approaching 100 degrees in many locations.
The subtropical ridge was at a strength near 596 dm and near the Four Corners. With the improved mixing and the atmosphere continuing to get incrementally warmer each day, lower 90s are expected this afternoon. Weak closed cyclone will meander in West Texas tonight. Models show no change in the 500 mb heights, as the closed low retrogrades into New Mexico, pushing the subtropical high center temporarily to near Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Today and tonight) Some low clouds advected into the area overnight on the southeast side of the upper level low. The upper low at 0830Z was located between Snyder and Lubbock. As the upper level low continues to moves away from West Central Texas today, the low clouds will gradually burn off by 16Z or 11 AM CDT. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy and warm today over most of the area with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Tonight, West Central Texas will be located between an upper level low over central New Mexico and an upper level high pressure ridge across East Texas.
The cloud cover may max out at 60-70 percent late tonight/early friday, but should only impact the temp drop by about a few deg F, since the subsidence associated with the aforementioned high pressure area closer to us, and the presence of a deep layer of dry air will chew up the clouds somewhat. Min temps will slip to near or just under 50F across the perennial cold spots across the north, while the larger Metro Areas throughout the Lower Susq valley settle around the 60 F mark. After a couple of cooler days with lower humidity, a warm front will move north of the area on Saturday and bring higher dewpoints and warmer weather.
Prevailing south to south-southwest winds ahead of the front will advect a warmer air mass into the region today.
Relative humidity will be once again back into the lower teens if not the upper single digits. Saturday may be a degree cooler, but will see much of the area in the low to mid 90s. Humidity will also still be very low, again in the lower teens to upper single digits.
A warm front, associated with low pressure in North Dakota, and extends into W Illinois, is producing clouds and sprinkles over the forecast area this afternoon. As this system, as well as the 500 mb ridge pattern moves east, the chances for more significant precipitation will increase overnight. with the cloud cover, the primary concern is the thunder potential overnight as the differential advection and a weak 500 mb trough, and the warm front couple to produce better chances for thunder. In addition, warm air advection is on the increase with surface dewpoints rising through the 60s Friday and perhaps touching the low 70s Saturday.
/Issued 1157 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/ /Friday through Saturday Night/ A slow moving upper low will continue a westward track on Friday allowing stronger subtropical ridging to build in over the Southern Plains. With the upper trough well removed from the area on Saturday and ridging firmly in place, a dry forecast is expected with temperatures approaching 100 degrees in many locations.
323 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
Upper ridging, centered across the northern Gulf of Mexico, will continue to have a hold on our weather pattern today. Temperatures will be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday with highs topping out in the lower to close to mid 90s. The highest temperatures should be in the west, closer to the center of the upper ridge but also where convection should be less today. We continue to hold onto good moisture across the region with dewpoints expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. /28/ Upper level ridging along with a high pressure (593dam) will dominate through the period. Though most of the time ridges are associated with little to no rain, summertime patterns can still be accompanied by afternoon convection. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s each day.
The Evening Update: Little change in the CWA except for the Delta influenced area where temps are running just a degree or two cooler than 24 hrs. Marine layer at 1600 ft up a little bit from 24 hrs ago which may account for the difference and in addition with the upper trof moving into/across the Pac NW which kept the prevailing flow from the SW and the WF smoke out of our CWA. With the passage of the Pac NW trof, the 4-Corners is forecast to retrograde sufficiently to bring some warmer/hotter air into the CWA.
222 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Synoptic scale ridging will setup over the Central Plains and Nation's Heartland with near to above normal temperatures occurring Friday and Saturday. Central and south central Kansas will likely see temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s on Friday and the mid 90s to 1ow 100s on Saturday.
Temperatures are on track to bottom out from around 50F in the coolest northern valleys, to the low 60s in the more urbanized spots of the Lower Susq Valley. Model soundings are well mixed to 800mb, where temps of near 8C should translate to highs ranging from the mid 70s across the northern mountains, to the low 80s in the valleys of central and southern Pa. After a couple of cooler days with lower humidity, a warm front will move north of the area on Saturday and bring higher dewpoints and warmer weather.
337 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Showers and storms are possible today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a Rex Block anchored over the central CONUS with the upper ridge axis stretching northeastward through Minnesota and into western Ontario. The axis of this wave will be over the Dakota's by 00Z this evening, with convective initiation expected across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota as an advancing cold front interacts with a moisture-rich airmass with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg just along the boundary. This could include a stronger than expected cold pool with the morning convection, lingering clouds keeping temperatures on the cooler side, and a faster than expected motion of the main synoptic boundary. The surface cold front sags south into the evening hours on Saturday, depressing dewpoint temperatures by 10-15+ degrees across the forecast area into the upper 50s and low 60s.
Some weak cold air advection tonight into Saturday will bring slightly cooler temps in the 80s and much lower dew points around 50 degrees.
150 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
(Today and tonight) Some low clouds advected into the area overnight on the southeast side of the upper level low. The upper low at 0830Z was located between Snyder and Lubbock. As the upper level low continues to moves away from West Central Texas today, the low clouds will gradually burn off by 16Z or 11 AM CDT. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy and warm today over most of the area with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Tonight, West Central Texas will located between an upper level low over central New Mexico and an upper level high pressure ridge across East Texas.
Haze will linger through the night as the low-level diurnal thermal inversion continues to strengthen. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 71 92 73 92 / 10 10 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 93 72 93 / 10 10 30 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 30 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 91 68 90 / 10 10 30 10 40.
Skies will defintely look hazy once again but dont feel this should impact high temps much /maybe a degree or so/ with highs still forecast to reach the lower 90s in most locales.
1128 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cutoff upper level low drifting into the desert southwest as the potent mid/upper level ridge that made headlines for bringing heat to the western CONUS slowly slides eastward into the central plains. Across central and south central KS, max temperatures will likely reside in the low to mid 90s on Friday and rise into the mid 90s to low 100s for Saturday as the shallow moist layer mixes out each afternoon and mid/upper ridging becomes more prominent. Across southeast Kansas, evapotranspiration from recent rainfalls and the transport of moisture from breezy southerly winds will aid to keep max temperatures in the low 90s.
This is probably the result of cloud cover north of the cold front but strong heating should develop south of the front across swrn Nebraska and ncntl Nebraska. Warmer highs could develop. In the wake of the storm activity today and tonight, a cold front will back through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Cooler highs are in place Saturday- low to mid 90s. The POP forecast is problematic as an excellent focus will be in place across the Black Hills south through wrn Nebraska where moisture will pool along the back door cold front. There is also a strong signal for a surge of hot air moving through Wyoming aimed at the Black Hills and Pine Ridge.
Today, we're going to see warmer temperatures than the past couple days, but all model data suggests the main axis of dewpoints over 70 will be shunted into central and eastern Illinois, thus the Heat Index / Apparent Temperature grids top out in the upper 90s today, which is short of the criteria for Advisory, 100F. Tonight, the frontal zone should be active well to the north of our CWA, and another warm night is in store, in the lower 70s. Even after limiting dew points into the mid 70s heat index level will still rise over 100 degrees with afternoon highs in the low and mid 90s. The highway 20 corridor as well as Carroll, Bureau and Putnam counties appear to remain below criteria levels at this time.
Overnight into Saturday night, a flat ridge aloft gradually expands into the Inland NW.
A warm front, associated with low pressure in North Dakota, and extends into W Illinois, is producing clouds and sprinkles over the forecast area this afternoon. As this system, as well as the 500 mb ridge pattern moves east, the chances for more significant precipitation will increase overnight. with the cloud cover, the primary concern is the thunder potential overnight as the differential advection and a weak 500 mb trough, and the warm front couple to produce better chances for thunder. Upper ridge remains over the west with westerlies across SW Canada and across the Great Lakes.
This lends credence to the wind threat with any additional storms that push off the higher terrain to the west and through northeast Montana later this evening and tonight as well. Longer term ensembles point to the upper ridge pattern becoming established once more over the western U.
Tonight Through Saturday An upper ridge of high pressure continues to be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with an upper trough over the northeast. The high will drift to the northwest. By Saturday, this high will overtake the south and western parts of the U. A warm front is located in southern Arkansas this afternoon and will continue to move north.
337 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Light south winds were common across western and central Kansas this morning with temperatures still in the upper 60s to over the higher plains and lower 70s over the lower plains region. The HiRESFV3 may be slightly warmer than all other model guidance/output this afternoon.
a clear sky is expected tonight with low temperatures in the low to upper 60s and south winds of 5 to 15 mph. the forecast area will be under the influence of an elongated upper level ridge stretching from Utah east into Kansas through the southern plains. Moisture currently along the Colorado rockies is expected to shift slowly east, approaching western Yuma and Kit Carson counties in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s to 100 degrees with low temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s to low 70s. Heat index values will be within a few degrees of the high temperatures.
412 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 In the upper levels high pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico into Florida today then shifts west as troughing deepens off the eastern U. Meanwhile at the surface, the ridge axis will shift into south Florida today and the Florida Straits this weekend as a frontal trough and weak area of low pressure sags into the region. We will see some rather hot temperatures again today with highs in the lower to middle 90s away from the coast, with feels like temperatures reaching 102 to 107 degrees. During tonight the flow will begin to shift to northeasterly across the Nature Coast reaching the Interstate 4 corridor by morning as the trough moves into the region.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low over West Texas. The highest chances of rain and storms will be in Southeast New Mexico and along and south of the Pecos River. Temperatures today will be a little warmer with highs in the lower to mid 90s across much of the area. The upper low moves west of the region on Saturday which will reduce precipitation chances across the Permian Basin.
214 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Morning lows in the lower 70s. Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s, and overnight lows around 70. This, along with some orographic lift or lee side troughing, could allow convective activity to favor northern and western areas Sat aftn/eve.
Ridging will continue to build into South Texas as high pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico moves westward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will range in the low 90s near the coast to 103 over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 An area of showers and thunderstorms remains over the northwestern part of the CWA, but expect it to begin to dissipate as the low level jet over the area weakens. The heat and humidity has overlapped enough for some 100 F plus heat index readings this afternoon across the CWA, as the upper-level ridge remains in place. As it does so, it's associated upper trough will increasingly infringe on and temporarily flatten the Northern Plains' upper-level ridge. High pressure will be building into the region for the beginning of the weekend in the wake of an eastward departing frontal boundary.
Dry northwest flow aloft and surface ridging will keep conditions mostly dry. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 71 93 73 92 / 10 10 20 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 69 93 72 93 / 10 10 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 68 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 91 68 90 / 10 10 20 10 30.
956 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
613 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
Today Through Saturday Night As of 09Z, a small area of showers with occasional thunder continues across east-central AR in response to a weak disturbance that is currently transiting the state, generally along the northern periphery of an upper ridge over the northern Gulf. Radar trends and hi- res guidance do suggest a gradual decrease in convective activity over the next few hours, but more scattered activity is expected this afternoon in response to diurnal heating as the weakness in upper ridging persists. Meanwhile, as a mid/upper low across TX continues retrograding west underneath an expanding upper ridge across the western CONUS, temps will begin to climb in earnest locally.
High temperatures over western Montana will reach the 80s with a few 90s in the lower valleys towards Libby and Troy.
625 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
BRB (Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will retrograde towards the west today and in doing so, an upstream mid-level trough will shift northward. Most of the area will experience heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with some locations across south central OK getting into the low 100s. There is the slight chance for some isolated showers and storms in south central OK later in the afternoon/evening, where the higher dewpoints will reside. Tomorrow night lows will only get down into the low to mid 70s across the area.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area during the morning hours. With an upper level trough, increasing winds aloft, along with MUCAPE, believe the convection will continue beyond 12Z today. The secondary cold front will have the potential to bring strong to severe storms, mainly in North Dakota. The low dew points, along with high temperatures in the upper 80s, to the mid 90s will produce RH values below 25 percent for most of the CWA.
A weak trough dipping southward into northeast and central Florida today will provide ample lift and moisture to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms area-wide, with PoPs around 60%. Highs this afternoon will reach the low to mid-90s. A weak trough will dip southward into central Florida today, bringing a numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area.
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Some low clouds advected into the area overnight on the southeast side of the upper level low. The upper low at 0830Z was located between Snyder and Lubbock. As the upper level low continues to moves away from West Central Texas today, the low clouds will gradually burn off by 16Z or 11 AM CDT. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy and warm today over most of the area with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Tonight, West Central Texas will be located between an upper level low over central New Mexico and an upper level high pressure ridge across East Texas.
SSE winds could gust near 25 knots through the day as high pressure over the Gulf moves westward towards the Texas Coast, increasing the pressure gradient. Ridging will continue to build into South Texas as high pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico moves westward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will range in the low 90s near the coast to 103 over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
418 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area during the morning hours. With an upper level trough, increasing winds aloft, along with MUCAPE, believe the convection will continue beyond 12Z today. The secondary cold front will have the potential to bring strong to severe storms, mainly in North Dakota. The low dew points, along with high temperatures in the upper 80s, to the mid 90s will produce RH values below 25 percent for most of the CWA.
/Issued 457 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ A weak high pressure system extending from the surface to the mid- levels currently sits over the northern Gulf, roughly 250 miles south of LIX.
409 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Currently, temperatures are into the low to mid 70s with patchy, dense fog over West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100F. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 70s. As for the rest of the week, a ridge sits to our west and will gradually shift east while a trough that is currently over the upper Great Lakes also shifts east.
Detailed Discussion: Current water vapor imagery shows a amplified ridge over the central conus extending northward into the Canadian plains. An area of low pressure was noted across the southern Texas Panhandle. The thermal ridge will start to build eastwards placing the ridge axis across western Kansas and extending northeastward into northeast Kansas and northern Missouri Saturday afternoon resulting in heat index values approaching 105 degrees.
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all significant levels, highlighting the westward progression of the mean layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure will reach west across the Florida Keys and South Florida for the next several days. Congestus clouds are already firing in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, suggesting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in the next couple hours and continue through much of the afternoon.
548 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Synoptic scale ridging will setup over the Central Plains and Nation's Heartland with near to above normal temperatures occurring Friday and Saturday. Central and south central Kansas will likely see temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s on Friday and the mid 90s to 1ow 100s on Saturday.
/issued 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ Currently, temperatures are into the low to mid 70s with patchy, dense fog over West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100F. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 70s. As for the rest of the week, a ridge sits to our west and will gradually shift east while a trough that is currently over the upper Great Lakes also shifts east.
517 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will retrograde towards the west today and in doing so, an upstream mid-level trough will shift northward. Most of the area will experience heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with some locations across south central OK getting into the low 100s. There is the slight chance for some isolated showers and storms in south central OK later in the afternoon/evening, where the higher dewpoints will reside. Tomorrow night lows will only get down into the low to mid 70s across the area.
Otherwise, model guidance continues to show an anomalous plume of monsoon moisture spreading west and north around an anticyclone located over the Intermountain West.
618 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Showers and storms are possible today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Light south winds were common across western and central Kansas this morning with temperatures still in the upper 60s to over the higher plains and lower 70s over the lower plains region. The HiRESFV3 may be slightly warmer than all other model guidance/output this afternoon.