Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light Freezing Rain and Freezing Drizzle Possible this As of 3 AM, skies were cloudy across West Central Texas, with light winds and temperatures in the 30s. Most of the area was above freezing, except for the Big Country counties where temperatures ranged between 28 and 32 degrees. The main concern will be the potential for light freezing rain/freezing drizzle, where temperatures dip below freezing for a few hours this morning. At this time, it appears that temperatures will be marginal for light ice accumulations but still could see some patchy slick spots develop on elevated surfaces, even with temperatures hovering near freezing. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing by late morning or early afternoon, with light rain/drizzle possible over far eastern counties.
A cold front remains well south of the area, with high pressure in place across much of the eastern CONUS. Through tonight the high pressure will slide southwest as a cold front begins to drop in from the north with a stronger high pressure system behind it. This disturbance will be sliding over the subtropical ridge in place, so a good amount of the early activity this afternoon in the far north may only fall as sprinkles or light rain across the far north.
Sunny today with light winds and a little warmer temperatures. Today through Sunday Ridging over Nevada today will get flattened some on Sunday by a system passing to the north. Winds will be light today under the ridge, with Sunny skies and warmer highs in the mid 30's to mid 40's. Less clouds in eastern Nevada will allow for low temperatures to drop into the single digits through the lower teens. There will be some afternoon breezes, as the trof passage to the north tightens gradients a little, though strong winds are not expected.
Strong and cold high pressure centered over Missouri will continue to modify as it settles over the Ohio Valley, but stratus will hang on for much of today as a shallow layer of moisture remains trapped below a strong inversion. Temps near freezing will further limit the impacts.
A noticeable inverted trough and low at 925mb combined with moist air passing over cooler surface temperatures indicated by isentropic ascent along the 295-300K surfaces, will lead to additional light rain and drizzle through the day today. Persistent overcast skies will limit daytime heating and therefore have went a little cooler than the NBM guidance, with CONSSHORT indicating highs in the mid 40s area wide. A weak shearing out trough aloft will progress through Texas on Sunday, pushing the low-level feature eastward, allowing for drier conditions to develop by the afternoon and skies to begin breaking from north to south in the late afternoon to evening. Highs on Sunday will increase given the break in cloud cover and reduced precipitation, in the low to mid 50s.
347 AM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Sfc analysis at this hour shows high pressure centered over the Middle MS Valley with a sfc cyclone across nrn AB/MB. A trailing sfc trof extends swwd into the lee of the nrn Rockies, with weak indications of troughing as far south as the nrn High Plains. WV imagery depicts broad troughing over the wrn to cntrl CONUS, with embedded waves evident over the cntrl Rockies/Plains and digging into MT/ID.
Dry weather continues with above- freezing temps again on Sunday, though a weak cold front will sag across the area during the day. Associated low level warm advection will push temperatures above freezing this afternoon with plenty of sunshine, though blustery surface winds gusting near 30 mph (with strongest winds across northern parts of the cwa) will keep wind chills in the 20s despite sunshine and above-freezing air temps. The cold front trailing this low is progged to settle southeastward across the forecast area during the day. Still, temperatures look to be above-freezing with highs from the mid-30s far north/northeast IL to around 40 across our south/southwestern counties where cold FROPA will occur a little later in the day.
Minor snow accumulations across the higher elevations of the east TN and VA mountains. The bulk of the precip will occur from the central TN Valley and southward, where temperatures will be above freezing through the event and all liquid is expected. Near freezing temperatures will be in place tomorrow morning near the TN/KY/VA state lines, but QPF will be very light that far north. The higher elevations across the northeast TN and VA mountains, mainly above 4000 feet, may see minor snow accumulations ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to half an inch.
Greatest focus for precip will be across the southern half of the state this morning with some light sleet/freezing rain possible for a few hours. Temperatures will warm above freezing, but probably remain in the 30s for many during the day. As an H500 trough nears the state precip will become more widespread.
rain chances are still expected to increase later this morning as a weak coastal trough developing to our southwest (around/near the Lower/Middle TX coasts) begins a steady north/northeast track towards the Upper TX coast and SE TX. For our northern zones, highs will be in the lower to mid 40s and upper 40s to low 50s for the southern half. A return of freezing/near freezing low temperatures are on tap for the northern half of the CWFA with lows in the mid and upper 30s elsewhere (including Houston proper) and then the mid 40s along the immediate coast.
Winds remain light and temperatures will be much warmer than what we've seen the last several days, topping out in the 40s. Sunday, an upper level ridge to the west pushes into the High Plains with northwest flow setting up over the Tri-Cities. The ridge is expected to break down during the day with flow transitioning to zonal over the area. A new ridge sets up over the western U.
530 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 After a few morning flurries, dry weather should return today under building high pressure. Scattered snow showers will return by late Sunday with the next cold front. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected tonight under high pressure. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high moves east of the region. Wind should increase through the day with a tightening pressure gradient and increased mixing ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ontario region.
829 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will nose into the Commonwealth this weekend, then a cold front will sweep southeast across the state Sunday evening.
Some flurries and/or perhaps a few snow showers could emerge there through dawn, thanks to an approaching upper trough aligning with WSWrly LES. The main feature of interest is a low pressure system tracking across the Hudson Bay on Saturday. A cold front dives south across our CWA Saturday night and ushers in the next arctic air mass. Soundings show a brief period of robust snow showers accompanying the cold front passage, especially across the east. These showers could add up to a quick inch with light lake effect snow showers developing for northwest wind snow belts behind the cold front. Surface ridging moves in Sunday night ending the ongoing LES and setting up a potentially very cold night.
Coastal areas will remain a little cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to an afternoon sea breeze, while inland areas climb into the middle and upper 80s with a few more record highs possible. /issued 325 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022/ High pressure remains aloft over the region early this morning, with strong subsidence continuing over the local area. At the surface, a frontal boundary is located north of our area, with high pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward across the Florida peninsula.
Frigid temperatures will remain in place this morning, with most locations staying below freezing today. This will be a result of a tightening surface pressure gradient, as a leeside trough redevelops over eastern MT/WY. There will be a 20 to 30 degree swing from the low tonight to Sunday's high for most areas. Cody and portions of Johnson County will rise into the 40s, while most areas west of the Divide stay below freezing.
924 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Another very warm and dry day in store across the area as high pressure remains in control. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with light winds this morning becoming E/NE around 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon, with speeds toward the higher end of this range along the coast behind the sea breeze.
941 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 A potent ridge remains anchored over the Southeastern United States and Key West. Temperatures are nearing 80 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The high pressure will promote easterly winds 10 to 15 knots over most of the local waters and islands today. High pressure extends over the western Atlantic and back toward Florida. The ridge is causing an onshore flow for most of the Florida coastal areas this morning.
219 AM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Sfc analysis at this hour shows high pressure centered over the Middle MS Valley with a sfc cyclone across nrn AB/MB. A trailing sfc trof extends swwd into the lee of the nrn Rockies, with weak indications of troughing as far south as the nrn High Plains. WV imagery depicts broad troughing over the wrn to cntrl CONUS, with embedded waves evident over the cntrl Rockies/Plains and digging into MT/ID.
514 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Key Messages: - Near seasonal high temperatures in the lower 40s today. Mostly clear skies and weak isentropic descent will nudge temps above freezing into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon.
Model soundings indicate a very narrow layer of moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion, so the big question today will be whether we see enough heating/mixing in the low levels to eventually erode the thin layer of strato-cu that is developing. Strong and cold high pressure centered over Missouri will continue to modify as it settles over the Ohio Valley, but stratus will hang on for much of today as a shallow layer of moisture remains trapped below a strong inversion. Temps near freezing will further limit the impacts.
Breezy and warmer today with highs reaching into the 30s across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This will lead to drifting snow in open and rural areas from the mid/late morning into the afternoon, mainly north of the highway 30 corridor. Even across the northern tier of counties, highs near freezing and the strength of the late February sun will quickly warm the remaining snowpack and lead to melting by mid/late afternoon. Second half of the weekend, sfc trof sweeps through the area early Sunday for a switch to northwest BL flow. Sunshine, decent mixing and lag of cooler temp profiles support high temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s acrs much of the area.
Expect highs in the low to mid 30s today, then upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday. Ridge of high pressure is centered over central Illinois this morning and will slowly sag south towards the Ohio River Valley Sunday. Temperatures will top out near or just above freezing today, then expect to be 5-10 degrees warmer for Sunday.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper level trough extends from over the Great Lakes area southwestward to Arizona and Southern California. Cloud cover is expected to remain over much of the Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos today. Areas that continue to have cloud cover will be cooler today than areas further west where the sun will shine this afternoon. The southern end of the upper trough will move over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Sunday.
Benign but still generally cooler than average weather is ahead for the Panhandles. Today, positively tilted upper trough, currently located over the Front Range, will slide southeastward over the Panhandles. Have thus moved toward the generally cooler NAM MOS guidance for today, which has generally done well recently with the cold air mass with the exception of a couple days ago when winds in the SW TX Panhandle shifting to a decidedly downslope west-southwesterly. Due to dry conditions through much of the column, no precipitation is expected as the upper trough passes. Sunday, as the first upper trough departs, a second weak trough will slide over the Rockies.
The snow will taper off and end by this afternoon as surface ridging builds in with drying and subsidence. The northern stream dominates the next few days with fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada. on Sunday a low moves across southern Canada with a trailing cold front extending through the Great Lakes.
646 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the region Sunday night.
A glancing cold frontal passage this evening from the MB/ON clipper may spark some scattered snow showers in northwest MN, particularly near LOW. This cold front should stall and drape itself across the region on Sunday ahead of the incoming clipper train. Medium and hi res guidance is picking up the presence of mid level fgen parallel to the flow as well as this low level boundary. West to northwest flow will be the main feature through the upcoming week, with a transition to a ridging or even southwest upper pattern by the end of the week.
and Sunday Gusty winds and milder temperatures today, a small threat of lake effect snow showers far north tonight, and slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, are the main forecast concerns. A strong pressure gradient will set up over the area today, in between high pressure to our south and an approaching cold front to our north. The cold front will drop south through the area later tonight. Lows should range from around 10 above northwest to the lower 20s southeast. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be a little cooler, mainly in the 20s and lower 30s.
Today will be the first day above freezing in about week. As such, could see temperatures today a few degrees cooler than forecast if the clouds are thicker than expected. Sunday, the high pressure system that brought the cold air will finally remove itself from the CWA and ridging will being to build in.
952 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the region Sunday night.
Satellite and upper level observations this morning indicate a ridge of high pressure over the western U. Offshore, a large circulation around a low pressure center off the coast of British Columbia is pushing Pacific moisture onto the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The ridge of high pressure will dominate the Northern Rockies today. The warm nature of the incoming airmass will limit snow amounts, while the residual cold air in the lower atmosphere could make for freezing rain, especially over far northwest Montana and the lower elevations of of north-central Idaho.
946 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. Scattered snow showers will return by late Sunday with the next cold front. Recent RAP analysis suggests a thermal trough crossing the region, supporting lingering flurries across mostly nern portions of the forecast area provided llvl moisture and coincident steep lapse rates. Upper troughing will support temperature about 5 degrees below average; though high pressure will maintain a generally quiet, tranquil night under a clear sky. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high moves east of the region. Wind should increase through the day with a tightening pressure gradient and increased mixing ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ontario region.
621 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will nose into the Commonwealth this weekend, then a cold front will sweep southeast across the state Sunday evening.
620 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 After a few morning flurries, dry weather should return today under building high pressure. Scattered snow showers will return by late Sunday with the next cold front. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected tonight under high pressure. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high moves east of the region. Wind should increase through the day with a tightening pressure gradient and increased mixing ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ontario region.
Gusty northwest winds will develop across western and central NM this afternoon behind a weak cold front, but are forecast to be around 20kts. Patches of freezing fog are very unlikely across far southeast NM early this morning, thanks to high clouds keeping temperatures above the dewpoint temperatures. A cold front moving through the area today will bring a bit of breeziness to the area, making the below normal temperatures feel even colder.
A cold front remains well south of the area, with high pressure in place across much of the eastern CONUS. Tonight the high pressure will slide southwest as a cold front begins to drop in from the north with a stronger high pressure system behind it. This disturbance will be sliding over the subtropical ridge in place, so a good amount of the early activity this afternoon in the far north may only fall as sprinkles or light rain across the far north.
Southern WI will see increasing southwesterly flow given the tighter pressure gradient developing between the two systems along with warmer temps advecting into the area as well. Given the mostly clear skies, daytime temps are expected to crack the freezing mark and climb into the mid 30s today. This frontal passage is looking to stay dry as the high pressure to our south blocks any gulf moisture from coming up this way and it will mainly bring a west to northwesterly wind shift with only a slight drop in temps. Sunday will be another quiet day across southern WI as high pressure builds in behind the front and upper-level northwesterly flow pattern sets up over the region.
Ridging extending from the central to western North Atlantic has helped support moderate to occasionally fresh breezes across the coastal waters.
The weak isentropic ascent coupled with broad lift associated with an approaching upper trough will result in numerous light showers this afternoon, especially across the southeast zones where low level moisture is most abundant. Luckily, all temperatures have warmed above freezing late this morning, so the chances for freezing rain/freezing drizzle has ended.
Efficient radiational cooling tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the low 20s. Temperatures on Sunday will be warmer than today, with values looking to reach near normal values (normals for late February/early March range from the low 40s north to upper 40s south). A cold front will make it's way through the northern half of the area later Sunday into Sunday night, turning winds northerly and bringing another shot at cooler temperatures for Sunday night. Dry air in the low to mid-levels will keep things dry with the only impact being an increase in high clouds. Upper ridging quickly builds across the western CONUS for the start of the new week, translating eastward throughout the week.
Little or no cloud cover expected tomorrow, which will result in much warmer temperatures and a more rapid melting of sleet swath that continues from portions of our western north Texas counties, northeastward through central Oklahoma.
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Key Messages: - Near seasonal high temperatures in the lower 40s today. Mostly clear skies and weak isentropic descent will nudge temps above freezing into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon.
Downslope flow has produced adiabatic warming over the High Plains, and westerly H85 winds has provided WAA across the region.
However, that will come to an end Sunday as 850mb winds start to come out of the north on the heels of a fresh area of high pressure moving through northern Texas. In essence, if clouds push out faster than forecast then temperatures will be much warmer (maybe some 60s out west!) than currently forecast. For this forecast package, have elected to us a NAM12/NBM blend to indicate the potential for warmer temperatures out west and highs closer to 50 near the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 49 33 59 36 / 90 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 48 30 56 34 / 80 70 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 49 30 57 34 / 70 60 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 47 28 53 31 / 60 50 0 0 0.
252 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
Fortunately, temperatures have climbed back above freezing, so the sleet that's falling isn't causing an issue. Forecast soundings suggest a rain/snow mix overnight as temperatures fall back towards freezing. Impacts should be minimal, but with temperatures falling below freezing again tonight, less traveled roads could become slick. The bulk of the precipitation will pull off the Plateau by mid- morning tomorrow and while some very light precip south of I-40 and east of I-65 might stick around until noon, temperatures should climb back above freezing and limit any travel hazards.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 40 49 33 59 / 20 90 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 38 48 30 56 / 20 80 70 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 38 49 30 57 / 20 70 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 36 47 28 53 / 10 60 50 0 0.
A weak backdoor cold front will try to push into the area from Manitoba early Sunday morning but stall somewhere across northern North Dakota. This will allow for the southwest to warm into the upper 30s to low 40s for Sunday afternoon, while areas across the northeast will remain as cold as the lower teens.
(The rest of today ) Extensive mid/high clouds continue across much of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning in advance of approaching upper trough axis. Still a low chance that some of this precip could briefly transition to a wintry mix, mainly in the higher terrain areas.
WSW flow aloft continues to transport moisture into the region, although the lower levels are dry. With temperatures well above freezing, there should not be any impacts from this sleet.
1028 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Went ahead and removed mention of freezing drizzle across western north Texas for the rest of the morning/early afternoon. Just too dry with only detectable/reported drizzle or freezing drizzle down closer to I-20. Temperatures continue to warm late this morning and most of the area should be at or above freezing by noon. A portion of western north TX could get some freezing drizzle this morning. As this light precipitation moves into OK, temperatures are expected to be above freezing, so an precipitation that falls should be rain.
300 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 A surface and mid level ridge which held steadfast over the Western Atlantic and Florida will gradually weaken. In contrast, the mid level ridge will slide into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday afternoon.
(This evening through Sunday) Extensive cloud cover is persisting across west central Texas this afternoon as mid-level Pacific moisture streams across the southern Plains ahead of an upper-trough. Clearing conditions and resulting light winds will help temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 20s tonight. Tomorrow, high pressure will be the dominant feature for the region.
229 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the Rockies and a broad trough across eastern Canada. A cold front will drop southward across the area this evening. Sunday night will be cold with high pressure overhead initially.
High pressure approaches at the surface as mostly zonal flow persists at the upper levels, keeping most of the area dry through Sunday. Skies will gradually clear from the northwest to southeast by tomorrow morning as the high pressure system moves in. Additionally, a weak area of low pressure will cross to the south, which may be enough to allow for a few light showers to be possible along southwest VA and southern WV. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s for much of the lowlands, with low 20s along the higher elevations. High temperatures tomorrow are then expected to be around seasonable, with upper 40s to low 50s across the lowlands and mid 30s to 40s.