Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
601 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 SCT -SHSNS WILL END DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS COLD ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700MB WHERE TEMPS DIPPED TO AROUND -20C. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE MAIN AREA WILL BECOME DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DISPLACE THE REFORMING POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA KEEPING THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH TROF EXTENDING INTO EASTERN WYOMING. THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SK. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROF WILL HELP TO MIX SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
921 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after sunset. Further east there is a lack of moisture in the low levels closer to the high pressure.
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AS UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR NW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE AND A BUILDING CONTINENTAL HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. I FIND THIS SUSPECT GIVEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN.
1006 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KWWR/KGAG TOWARD AND AFTER 20Z SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY. /ISSUED 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE SHORT RANGE.
559 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 HAVE A FEW OBS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOW ACROSS NE/EC IA. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST.
PESKY CLD CVR SLOW TO ERODE WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING EWD ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM ADVT COMPONENT TO THE FLW WKNG WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS HWVR DRIER AIR IS ENTRAINING AND SUSPECT W/SUNDOWN WRN/CNTRL AREAS WILL CLR OUT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SC DECAYS. STG NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NW BC TO CREST WRN RIDGE AND SIGNALS BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE QUITE A SIG DOWNSTREAM WRN US RIDGE/ERN US TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EVENT HEADING INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. OTRWS PEAKING LL THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS SYS WILL FOSTER ABV NORMAL TEMPS SAT-MON TO WELL BLO NORMAL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WORKS SWD ACRS THE ERN US.
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN- EARNEST ALONG THE WEST COAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT VIRTUALLY ALL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. WITH LOWS IN THE PHX URBAN CORE REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S.
WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING DEEP BUT NARROW TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHEARING VORT MAX PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY WINDS TO W CENTRAL AND SW FL OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AROUND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD. 07 /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
447 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE WITH EARLIER CLOUD COVER NOW MOSTLY ERODED. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
712 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MAINLY HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW SANS A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CREATE LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE TROF. THE TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESPONDING TO A LEE TROF WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING IN ITS PLACE. ALDRICH AN UA TROUGH ACROSS WEST OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTN IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ESE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE DISTURBANCE AS AN UA TROUGH.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
956 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE RUC THIS CLOSE IN.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 326 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016/ AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
324 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THEN NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST AREAS AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. AND THERE WILL BE A TAD OF CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. AND EVEN "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.
INCREASING TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVERHEAD. /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/ THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MAINLY HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
1017 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
650 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE RUC THIS CLOSE IN.
559 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 1033 MB high pressure over central Texas and ridging into southeast IL is providing a nice sunny afternoon to much of central and southeast IL east of the IL river. These clouds associated with a weak short wave trof moving into central IA. This trof will sweep eastward across central/northern IL late this afternoon and into this evening and bring this band of clouds over areas mainly along and north of I-72 into this evening. Weak upper level ridging will build across the central portion of the country on Friday bringing tranquil weather to central Illinois with afternoon temperatures forecast to be close to where they should be for the first week of February, from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s far southeast Illinois.
216 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH.
/ISSUED 326 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016/ AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
935 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH.
652 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 SATELLITE SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THEN NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST AREAS AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. AND THERE WILL BE A TAD OF CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. AND EVEN "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.
532 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE 2ND IS PUSHING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL PROVIDING LIFT.
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER HIGH TO BUILD WEST TODAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES MAINLY LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE ALABAMA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS THE LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. KTW /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SRN CANADA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE 70S. WARMER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODELS TRENDING A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. PATTERN IS STILL PROGRESSIVE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIDGING.
115 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. WITH STRATUS CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL NV AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 70S TO THE MID 80S CENTRAL NV. THIS LOW WILL PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
327 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAMPING UP TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AT THE COAST TODAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ENSUES BEHIND THE THERMAL TROUGH.
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BY MIDDAY THE TROF THAT IS CAUSING THIS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER NY STATE WILL SPARK A 2ND ROUND OF STORMS ROUGHLY STARTING NEAR THE KELM/KITH/KBGM AREA IN THE 16Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. DID LITTLE WITH TEMPS, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE 90-92 RANGE, AND ELEVATIONS 84 TO 88.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BUILD WEST. WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CONTINUATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS STOUT PERSISTENT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR REGION. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A 594DAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL WORK TO PROLONG THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA. MOST SITES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SUNDAY.
629 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA. FOR TODAY THE BERMUDA RIDGE/INLAND TROUGH SUMMERTIME PATTERN BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE OVER AN H/5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.
STUMPF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
(700-200 MB) LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM IS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS PRIOR AND DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A RATHER EXPANSIVE DEEP AND WARM MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER ON ON THE GULF. WITH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LYING BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. MID AND UPPER RIDGING. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING JUST TO IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BUT THE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL FROM TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
234 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK.
416 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF COAST STATES.
COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS TODAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOT A SHOWER OR STORM AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. A S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE AREA WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE TROF CAN PASS AND THE FRONT SLIP S.
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA. FOR TODAY THE BERMUDA RIDGE/INLAND TROUGH SUMMERTIME PATTERN BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE OVER AN H/5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.
THE COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR LNK THROUGH CNK KS AND ITR CO. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NEBR WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. THERE REMAINS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE AND HAS BROUGHT A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
332 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2015 High pressure remains centered over the southern states. Highs today will be near seasonal values ranging from the low to mid 90s. the combination of a tropical air mass and recent rains will keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s creating very humid conditions with heat index values across the region ranging from 99 to 109 degrees during the afternoon hours. The highest heat index values are forecast along the Kansas-Missouri border on into central Missouri. Highs will be a degree or two warmer and should be in the mid 90s across the entire area. With dewpoints continuing in the low to mid 70s. it will suppress the upper level ridge just enough to allow a surface boundary to move into the region on Sunday.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE TROUGH TODAY THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THE IDAHO SIDE. STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW NEAR THE TROUGH CENTER.
A BROADER SCALE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH. FOR SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 25 MPH. MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S AT HAYS TO THE LOW 90S AT DODGE AND 98 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SK. THE HIGHEST CAPE AND NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AND RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PLANT ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
THE SET UP APPEARS TO BE A GOOD ONE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX AND A GOOD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN STATES.
330 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT THE APPROACH OF A H8 WARM FRONT AND ASSOC ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR THREAT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RRL-MNM THROUGH 12Z. MCS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TSTMS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GET MUCH QUIETER WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND WESTERLIES BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.