Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LANDBREEZE MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING THEN SE FLOW REDEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH STILL LIGHT AS RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER.
632 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 Very quiet weather pattern now in place over the Lwr Missouri Valley as high pressure has firm control the weather pattern. albeit slightly warmer with high pressure slowly tracks off to our northeast allowing for a gradual return of southeasterly winds. Highs on Sunday should range into the lower to middle 70s across much of the area.
751 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. A RIBBON OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAS MANAGED TO SNAKE UP JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE EVERY LAST DROP OF THAT INSTABILITY TO GET MUCH OF A WIND GUST THREAT OUT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRIES BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND SOME 30S INTO THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
CURRENT COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MIDDLE TN AS EVIDENT BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
1234 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
1028 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE WRAPPING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. AS THE LOW RAPIDLY EXITS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT AND THE STRATUS TO EXIT WHICH WILL SET UP A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
318 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO TX. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CAL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIDESPREAD ALTOSTRATUS ~15,000FT WAS STREAMING N FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEX. NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDING FL TO THE MID-MS VALLEY THE SRN PLAINS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N ACROSS CENTRAL & E TX.
OTHER LOCATION IS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLEST TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS AND SHALLOW MIXING NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS SUGGESTS MID 40S. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TIED TO THE LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PULL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN MID LEVEL PRECIPITATION PUSHES IN.
THINK ANY RISK NOW OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE LOW. EVEN AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC ARE STILL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS A WARM AND COLD LAYER JUST ABOVE. KEPT A THUNDER MENTION GOING AS THERE STILL IS A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW AND WE ARE STILL GETTING LIGHTNING REPORTS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE PRODUCING SOME PRECIP RIGHT ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AFTER 09Z OR SO AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON NOT MUCH COMING FROM IT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT NOT AS COLD AS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR FORSYTH.
1128 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
351 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO WIDESPREAD VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 50S MANY PLACES WITH A FEW UPPER 40S INLAND AREAS. STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY. CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF I-95 WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS LIKELY WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AND MUCH COOLER MID/UPPER 60S ON THE BEACHES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MILD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ALPENA MICHIGAN TO DES MOINES IOWA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY. THEY ARE STILL 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
336 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AND QUITE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EFFECTING MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
UPPER LOW SHOULD MAKE A LITTLE FURTHER EWD PROGRESS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. CAN LIKELY GET BY CANCELING THE HARRIS COUNTY PORTION OF THE WARNING AND GO W/ ADVISORY FOR JUST MINOR ISSUES NEAR THE LOWEST SEABROOK ROADS.
1146 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 903 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ ANOTHER WONDERFUL DAY (IF YOU PREFER WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS) FOR EARLY MARCH. AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NW MEXICO. A STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THIS CYCLONE. WHICH WILL REDUCE LONG WAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAKE WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
Cold frontal boundary is currently situated near the KC metro, running southwest to northeast along a KCNU to KDVN line.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
BUT A COUPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH.
326 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 Surface frontal boundary has exited the area this morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Some of this low level moisture has tried to form into a very low stratus deck. The only exception to that would be if the lingering boundary layer moisture forms into a stratus deck as the low level lapse rates begin to steepen. Highs today reach the lower 60s despite the high cloud cover that lingers through out the day.
1241 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTH FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
253 AM MST WED MAR 9 2016 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGH VALLEYS NORTH OF THE EASTERN UINTAS AND THE CRAIG TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
With the upper level low to the southwest, the activity may drift back to the northwest a little and reach across the remainder of the terminals as well. /issued 340 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Currently, we have southwest flow aloft with a large/powerful upper level low moving southeast into central Mexico. This boundary could potentially serve as a focus for thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon and evening with continued heating, and lift from the upper level low moving into the area. Farther west and south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing northwest of Del Rio, into the lower Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau as lift from the upper level low begins to spread northeast into our region.
337 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS TAKE MORE BANDED FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT/850 MB TROUGH ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM STORMS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHEAST TN IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEAST US COAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS TO MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. TONIGHT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO OVERNIGHT. AS OF 04Z PRECIP WAS EXITING SE OREGON AND WILL CLEAR THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN WI THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM. CAM AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALIKE SHOW PRECIP BLOSSOMING ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
1122 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AT 20Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
309 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY USHERING IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SLOWLY SOUTH OF TX WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS TODAY. DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. PHASING WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES.
223 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A cold front will push south through the region Wednesday morning with rain and MVFR ceilings developing behind it. /issued 218 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ Strong upper level low pressure area centered in northwest Mexico will slowly shift southeast into central Mexico through Wednesday night.
420 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 THE TWIN CITIES HAD THEIR FIRST OFFICIAL 70 DEGREE DAY THIS AFTN AS STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DEVELOPED. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THIS AFTN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS WC/SW/SC MN. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A DEEP UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED EAST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RUNNING A BIT COOLER SOUTH OF I-20 AND A LITTLE WARMER NORTH OF I-20 BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASINGLY BE CONTROLLED BY A SPRAWLING RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MANY TUNED TO OUR REGIONAL WEATHER IN THE SUMMER SHOULD RECALL EXPANSIVE RIDGES IN THE VICINITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND THIS IS THE WAY OUR WEATHER WILL BE TRENDING. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MS (CLOSEST TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER).
632 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ STRONG UPPER RIDGE (594DM) WAS CENTERED NEAR CHS WITH 590DM HEIGHTS SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE SERN U. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT VERY ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION THRU WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE ATMO COLUMN MOISTENS FURTHER AND HEIGHTS DECLINE JUST A BIT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO ERODE AT SOME OF THIS INITIALLY THIS MORNING. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL THEN REJUVENATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN/CENTRAL MN WHICH WILL BUILD EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME HEATING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY.
836 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A LENGTHY ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE POSITION WILL SUPPORT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN BUT WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING EXTENDING WEST INTO ALABAMA AND NORTHEASTERN TN. A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND WEST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE ATLANTA AREA AND INTO NE ALABAMA INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TODAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW U.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THOUGH UNTIL A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SWRN CONUS. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS.
629 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NO DISCERNIBLE REASON WHY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AVIATION DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME RAIN COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE HEAT RIDGE TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW ARE HINTING AT SOME RIDGETOP CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THAT SHOULD ONLY BE WARMER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EVEN MORE. BILL WILL STAY WELL OFF TO OUR WEST WITH THE HEAT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE.
BILL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED AROUND TROPICAL STORM BILL AND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE SERN CONUS. TODAY THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE FROM TS BILL WILL FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT AND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SO STILL HAVE AFTERNOON TSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.
THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND PASS N OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL CONT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL FORM ALONG THIS LOW. JUST TO COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE STORMS COULD BE POTENT AS THEY INITIALLY MOVE IN.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND WET WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND FALLING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
1157 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRECHED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO -- KMFD-KCAK-KYNG -- AND SINKING SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. CHARACTERIZED BY A FLATTENING RIDGE.
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST TEXAS. STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS IN THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SO FAR, ASOS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BUT GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THINK THAT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE DISSIPATING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS DRYING OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON.
EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.
A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE SAME PATTERN GOING, THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LESS HAZARDOUS ON WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION. SUSPECT ANY INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. THE ONLY BREAK FROM THE HEAT SHOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. MODELS HAVE KEPT THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NLISTEMAA HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 72 95 74 / 20 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 95 71 92 71 / 20 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 94 71 92 72 / 20 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 92 66 89 68 / 30 30 20 20.
631 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
YESTERDAY/S SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER DRY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN OVER THE REGION AND MOVES THE INSTABILITY WELL OUT OF THE REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION FURTHER STABILIZING THINGS TODAY. BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY. A WEAK MARINE PUSH SPILLS STRATUS INTO THE WEST SIDE NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE WITH SOME POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INLAND BRIEFLY TODAY ANOTHER WEAKER MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NO DISCERNIBLE REASON WHY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
1036 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
1235 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AXIS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER WYOMING AND UTAH. THE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS WYOMING BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK ASCENT FROM THE TROF. THE UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WYOMING ALONG WITH MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. ENTERING A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CYCLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. ITS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGES/HEAT DOMES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WHILE TROPICAL STORM BILL ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE OUT OF OUR AREA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA. CWA KIND OF IN THE GRADIENT WITH MORE RIDGE EFFECTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER STRONG RIDGING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.