Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CURRENTLY, A BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS IS PREVENTING ANY OF THE STORMS AND SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC FROM REACHING OUR AREA. THIS RIDGE, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, HAS KEPT COLD AIR LOCKED IN OVER US, AND THUS RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES. THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE IS FINALLY KICKED OFF TO THE EAST, FINALLY ALLOWING THE PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO RETURN TO OUR REGION.
438 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 SE TEXAS CONTINUED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AT 4 AM. BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
705 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ITS HOLD ON THE REGION WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A DALLAS TO BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO TO PECOS LINE AND WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS BRINGING WEAK IMPULSES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. 850 MB BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT ALL CREATE UPWARD FORCING OF THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
615 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND YIELD TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THE RETREAT OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE MILD WSW FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE UPPER LOW UNDER THE BLOCK IS MADE TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST AND EVENTUALLY UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES BY MID WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE FOR A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION TO SWING THROUGH AND BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
STUBBORN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE STARTING OFF QUITE COLD /BELOW ZERO IN SOME CASES/ AND THERE IS NOT AN OBVIOUS REASON TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THERE IS A CUTOFF LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
533 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ITS HOLD ON THE REGION WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER/SPRINKLES SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN EVEN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS ARIZONA. GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH DRY AIR STILL BEING BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF ARIZONA OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS DRY AIR AND THE RELATIVE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CWA PRECIP FREE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH A COOL AIRMASS CREATING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD KEEP MID STATE DRY THRU 28/00Z WITH SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS AND BKN CI EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NRN GULF TO THE CAROLINAS. SFC RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD. A RATHER STRONG SUB POLAR JET IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. AS FINALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TODAY. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TIMING ISNT PERFECT AND THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPS DUE TO THE INITIALLY WET ROADS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLDER ENVIRONMENT. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE A SNOW SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAY NEED TO KEEP A SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE FOX RIVER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS FAR ENOUGH EAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY FROM BOISE EAST. THINK FOG COULD REACH OR EVEN DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AND EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE LOWER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.
SOME FREEZING. THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOW MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS CAA PEAKS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH THE SAN JUAN RANGE SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS.
231 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING, EVEN IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO BRING PETS INDOORS OR TO A WARMER, SHELTERED LOCATION AT NIGHT AND TO WRAP ANY UNINSULATED PIPES.
457 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS WE DEVELOP A DRY SLOT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. IT APPEARS THAT WE MIGHT BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE THERE IS WARMER AIR ALOFT. SO I AM GOING ALL FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE SLIGHT/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN OUR SOUTH.
413 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN SEA BOARD WHICH IS MAINTAINING AN ERLY/SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS TO N-CNTL TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING NUDGING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SRLY FLOW BEHIND IT USHERING IN PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO A CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR EAST REMAINS ENTRENCHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR W/NW.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLEET MIXED IN WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEGUN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A SLOW MOVING. ALREADY SEEING A FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT THINKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS WELL SOUTH INTO TEXAS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA. JUST AHEAD OF THIS LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST.
958 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AS OF 15Z MOVING SE INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND EXTENDS THROUGH NEAR CLARKSVILLE.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX. A BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS TAPPED INTO A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SANDRA.
/ISSUED 413 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN SEA BOARD WHICH IS MAINTAINING AN ERLY/SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS TO N-CNTL TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING NUDGING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SRLY FLOW BEHIND IT USHERING IN PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO A CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR EAST REMAINS ENTRENCHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR W/NW.
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE. A STRONG PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AND GULF WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT CAN BE EXPECTED.
619 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ACCORDINGLY, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S TO EVEN LOWER 70S.
AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS PRETTY MUCH DRY THINGS OUT ALTHOUGH THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER LOBE THROUGH LATE EVENING. MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ROCKIES WITH A MAIN VORT LOBE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD FROM TX INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.
SUNSHINE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ALLOWED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN. WE WILL GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN A NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AS PART OF BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION THAT IS CIRCULATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE ERN MTNS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH THEN SPREAD OVR THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE AREA.
ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION SATURDAY THAN TODAY FOR THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER GYRE.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SEEN THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 240 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015/ TRICKY POP FCST ON TAP WITH OVERALL NO DEFINITIVE FORCING MECHANISM ALOFT IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT EAST OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED 700 MB HIGH AND CONTINUED RIDGE ALOFT AT 500 MB.
706 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
THE WEAK WARM FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS A SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DISTINCT CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST NV. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST NE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN NE AND IA AND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SFC TROF MOVES EAST. WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID EVENING AS THE SFC TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE KEYS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) A large upper trough dominates the southwest CONUS this afternoon enhancing the southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. A Pacific front will push into southeastern New Mexico tonight ahead of the upper low. As the upper low moves east over the western Plains tomorrow afternoon the eastern moving Pacific front will merge with the dryline with the Pacific front/dryline pushing into our western CWA tomorrow afternoon. Through tomorrow afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms and associated heavy rainfall will be over the northern Big Country which will be closer to the upper low. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. Models have been consistent in developing a line of convection along the dryline/Pacific cold front Saturday night.
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER GYRE.
BLANK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST.
A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING GOT BRIEFLY STRONG AS LAST GASP EFFORT OF DYING LOW LEVEL JET RODE OVER WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME CONCERN STORMS MAY FIRE AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT IS MAXIMIZED AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED. AND IF IT DOES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WITH WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER LOW AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KT OVERSPREADING INSTABILITY. FOCUS FOR INITIATION SHOULD COME WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.
823 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 915 PM PLACED CENTER OF UPPER LOW NEAR QUARTZITE MOVING ENE WITH MAIN DYNAMICS PRODUCING THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN MARICOPA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL EVENING HAVE KEPT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON BUT ALSO DIMINISHING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE EAST. MAY HAVE TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISHING RETURNS LIKE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.
AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD TO OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROUGH. COOL WEATHER SHOULD COVER ALL THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER US. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. EVENING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST.
MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE FACE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S. WITH THE HIGH PW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.
THE MOIST BAND WILL SHIFT OUT OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS.
743 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SFC TROF MOVES EAST. WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID EVENING AS THE SFC TROF MOVES FARTHER EAST.
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 DRIVEN BY A HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEEP ERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE FRONT INTO THE CWA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PUSHING ITS RAIN BAND WESTWARD. BRISK ERLY FLOW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET ASSOCD WITH A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE SPANNING THE ERN SEABOARD COUPLED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF THE BAHAMA BANK TO THE FIRST COAST.
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESPECIALLY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ARTHUR COUNTY. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. SO SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 80 67 83 / 40 60 40 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 81 64 83 / 20 50 40 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 79 66 83 / 20 60 40 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 80 62 82 / 20 50 40 50.
THE AVERAGE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
900 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
703 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
959 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE A BREAK FOR AWHILE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPTICK IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
1000 PM PDT Fri May 15 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers or thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. JHM Upper low will shift east into the Great basin region on Saturday with drying conditions for the valley. mainly in the afternoon according to the higher resolution QPF progs.
1018 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NE COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT IS MORE SO IN MISSOURI AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GREAT AGREEMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE MAIN PRECIP COMPLEX WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST.
It will be a muggy and warm overnight, with lows in the lower and middle 60s and dew points in the lower 60s.
THIS "CLEARING" WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A BROAD MID-LAYERED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF MINNESOTA AND REACHING C MINNESOTA AND C WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONG BUT NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL USHER IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
834 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
Tonight, the dryline will retreat westward in response to height falls ahead of a large upper low translating eastward over the southwestern ConUS. A Pacific cold front will spread eastward at the base of the ua trough and will collide with the retreating dryline tonight. The base of the upper low will swing by over New Mexico Saturday and push the dryline to the eastern fringe of the forecast area, with a slight chance of storms there during the afternoon. Strong mid level winds at the base of the upper low will rake the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains. Therefore, will replace the High Wind Watch in the Guadalupes with a High Wind Warning, and issue a Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico Plains.
1127 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NE COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT IS MORE SO IN MISSOURI AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GREAT AGREEMENT.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the Highway 65 corridor early this evening in an uncapped air mass.
1058 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.