Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight, although if the cloud cover lingers longer that expected, the lows will probably be too cold.
cloud cover should continue to thin out and exit the CWA from northwest to southeast as an upper level trof axis makes its way through the region.
143 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Outside of isolated flurries today, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 345 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A trough extending from the northwest Atlantic towards northern FL and into the Gulf states this afternoon will see the development of a low pressure area off the coast of southeast U. It will then push south in the form of a cold front tonight, increasing the chances of rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the northern portions of the forecast area of the Nature Coast this evening.
221 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 147 PM CST Currently, temperatures are in the low to mid 20s with northwesterly winds and clear skies. Looking upstairs, a strongly- positively tilted trough is located over the eastern United States with deep ridging across the west. Tonight, winds will relax and gradually become southwesterly as the aforementioned high pressure system drifts southward. 05"), temperatures will take the plunge overnight but not "too far" thanks to an increasing pressure gradient and hence surface winds right around daybreak as we find ourselves on the northern extent of the high. Temperatures are poised to rise above normal once again with highs in the upper 30s to even lower 40s, thanks to sunny skies, dry air through the entirety of the lower troposphere, and deep mixing.
Warm air behind the high pressure is leading to temperatures in the 40s across South Dakota. Expect temperatures to not be as cold tonight as high pressure moves south of the area. Clear skies and snow cover across the northern CWA will drive the lowest temps across the north. Into tomorrow, ridging builds into the area leading to temperatures in the 40s and melting snow.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s across the area with dewpoints in the teens and 20s.
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over IA and NE will bring cold weather today and again overnight tonight, under mainly clear skies.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 44 26 54 31 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 40 23 51 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 42 23 51 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 39 20 50 25 / 20 0 0 0 0 NC.
213 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 A cold night is in store tonight as clearing skies late this afternoon and early this evening will allow for good radiational cooling of the cold air mass that moved in behind a cold front earlier today.
1016 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Very quiet night across the area as upper ridging begins to nose into the area. Warmer air will continue to build into the region today, with good agreement in 850 mb temps above zero arriving by 00z. This air mass will also be very dry, with PWATs in the lowest 1 percent of NAEFS climo. Distinct split flow pattern develops Friday, with the srn stream featuring a closed/not quite cut-off low off the CA coast and the nrn stream well to our north in CN.
1136 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over IA and NE will bring cold weather today and again overnight tonight, under mainly clear skies.
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 An elongated positively tilted trough was moving southward through the middle of the country early this morning. This strong high pressure area will result in well below normal temperatures today with highs in the 20s and lower 30s. Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle teens. What will keep us from really bottoming out is that the high tonight will still be to the north with surface winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, keeping that area mixed. High pressure will move southward through the area Thursday night into Friday, eventually moving to our southeast by Friday afternoon. Winds transition to the south and southwest which should allow our highs to rebound close to normal with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Winds are now out of the northeast around 20 mph behind a cold front as of this writing. Each model solution is different on the exact placing of the higher amounts. It is still to be determined where the higher snow amounts do end up when all said and done. Overnight skies will be clear allowing for temperatures to drop into the low 20s for much of the area. Going into the afternoon on Friday winds will pick up to 15 to 20 mph out of the southwest aiding daytime temperatures to reach back into the low 50s.
Ensemble guidance agrees with this as most members keep surface temperatures near to just below freezing. If these warmer temperatures can start to mix down sooner higher temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are possible.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough running from Ontario through the Upper Mississippi valley and into the US central Plains. Replacing it, is a ridge running up the Pacific Northwest coastline and then turning east over southern British Columbia into Alberta where its nose if forming a chinook which is dropping south down the front range into Montana.
Expect clear skies and chilly temperatures tonight as cold, dry air advects into the area as a large dome of high pressure continues to sink into the Southern Plains/Middle MS Valley region. Low temperatures will dip into the upper teens/low 20s by Friday morning, with wind chills in the low teens.
A quiet pattern will persist through the period as weak ridging aloft shifts slowly east across the Colorado Rockies tonight, and further east into the Western High Plains Friday. Although a west-northwesterly flow aloft will intensify during the period, a cold/dry air mass will dominate the high plains of western Kansas capping any precip chances through late Friday afternoon. Developing lee side troughing will strengthen through the day Friday resulting in moderately gusty south- southwest winds by early afternoon.
344 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will move over the region tonight and bring very chilly low temperatures from 5 degrees above zero to around 10.
Temperatures will be colder tonight, with freezing temperatures expected areawide towards daybreak, with lows in the mid and upper 20s.
Forecast confidence is high: Strong high pressure centered just to the southwest of Wisconsin will gradually pull away to the southeast tonight through Friday night.
1044 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Mean layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean maintains a broad expanse of dry and sinking air. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all the MAN levels, highlighting the ridge's displacement to the southeast over the past 24 hours. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure over South Florida will dissipate this afternoon. A cold front will arrive Friday, with a northerly wind shift preceding the front tonight.
241 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure will give way to an increase in southwesterly winds on Friday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Large area of high pressure is stretched from southern MN through IA and into central KS this afternoon. The warm advection will spread across Iowa overnight as the high pressure system settles to the southeast. While mixing will be capped to near 900 mb by an inversion aloft, the mixing will help push temperatures into the 40s over central and southern Iowa with cooler conditions in the 30s to the north where several inches of snow cover remains.
1011 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over IA and NE will bring cold weather today and again overnight tonight, under mainly clear skies.
The strong area of high pressure over the PACNW will begin to weaken somewhat and shift eastward over the Northern Rockies today, resulting in a flat ridge.
An upper low spins offshore heading south to the California coastline. With this low, mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to push through the area.
However, impacts should be minimal given air temperatures staying above freezing. I can't rule out larger puddles or areas that have poor drainage from freezing over, so a few slick patches are possible. Lows will be in the lower to middle 20s (coldest in southern middle TN and the higher elevations of the Plateau), and wind chills will be in the teens. Arctic high pressure will slide south into the southern Plains Friday, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the TN valley. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40s if we are fortunate enough with full sunshine.
as deeper moisture vacates with moving weak LL trough axis and upper impulses. Later tonight, fairly sharp upper trough swings by but significant moisture/pcpn should be well east. While minor accumulation has occurred in spots, the higher elevations of the Plateau is where most snow is sticking, some places an inch of more right now. This high does expand southwest next few days and while we will see pretty cold mornings through Sun, afternoon temps will moderate nicely.
The light snow flurries associated with the upper level trough exiting has ended, and skies are clearing from the north to the south.
Cold temperatures on Thursday will give way to much warmer temperatures on Friday as afternoon highs soar back into the 50s for most. A strong upper-level ridge currently centered over the western edge of the Rocky Mountains will slowly progress eastward over the Central High Plains through the end of the work week. This dominant ridge will be the main factor leading to mostly clear skies and warming conditions through tomorrow.
201 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 A cold night is in store tonight as clearing skies late this afternoon and early this evening will allow for good radiational cooling of the cold air mass that moved in behind a cold front earlier today.
252 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 A mid/upper ridge was situated across the Southwest extending northward across the Central Great Basin area. Downstream across the Central Plains region, high pressure was building southward in the wake of a cold front. As high pressure translates slowly south and east across the area tonight, the best radiational cooling should occur across mainly southeast KS with southwesterly low level flow returning to western and much of central KS.
246 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over IA will bring one more night of cold weather under clear skies.
916 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Ridging building in over the region will lead to a warm and breezy day today. STP An upper level ridge will prevail over the region today, gradually becoming a dry W/NW flow by Friday. In the meantime, lows will become progressively warmer the next couple of nights. Lee-side surface troffing will continue to keep gradients tight through the day with southwest winds gusting into the 35-45 mph range at times today in the favored gap locations around Livingston and Nye, and perhaps occasionally at Big Timber and Harlowton.
Overnight lows will range from near freezing in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the lower 40s along the Rio Grande and into the coastal plains. Below normal temperatures continue for Friday night with lows near freezing in the Hill Country to the lower 40s along the Rio Grande.
-- Dry through the weekend -- ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement depicting a ridge covering the much of the central US. This ridge will take a few days to move east. Temperatures will be on the increase too as the ridge moves east and south flow develops.
337 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Mean layer ridging centered over the Western Caribbean maintains a broad expanse of dry and sinking air. This morning's KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all the MAN levels, highlighting the ridge's displacement to the southeast over the past 24 hours. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The stretch of upper 70s should end tonight as lows fall into the lower 70s. Winds will howl Friday night as warmer than normal Bay and Gulf side waters mix the boisterous BL winds to the surface.
329 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 This afternoon's GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough is continuing to slowly progress eastward across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. As the trough axis approaches and moves east of the CWA, upper level support for overrunning precipitation will decrease and result in showers coming to an end.
926 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A few clouds around 4,000' will continue to move southward ahead of an upper trough axis, leaving central Kentucky late this evening. Strong Canadian high pressure will build in from the northwest with clear skies and diminishing winds overnight. Temperatures at 02Z were running a bit cooler than forecast, so have knocked a degree or two off of the expected lows. Expect clear skies and chilly temperatures tonight as cold, dry air advects into the area as a large dome of high pressure continues to sink into the Southern Plains/Middle MS Valley region. Low temperatures will dip into the upper teens/low 20s by Friday morning, with wind chills in the low teens.
735 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over Iowa will bring one more night of cold weather under clear skies.
/issued 219 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ Chilly conditions will continue through Friday before warmer and windy conditions arrive this weekend. A strong cold front continues to push through the area this afternoon and should clear the Rio Grande this evening. Expect below freezing conditions at most locations except along the Rio Grande where temperatures will bottom out in the 30's. We could squeeze out some freezing drizzle or freezing fog in these areas so if you have travel plans around the I-20/I-10 split you may want to take it slow. Ridging aloft will give way to southwesterly flow this weekend as a strong storm system moves onshore along the West Coast.
529 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 A mid/upper ridge was situated across the Southwest extending northward across the Central Great Basin area. Downstream across the Central Plains region, high pressure was building southward in the wake of a cold front. As high pressure translates slowly south and east across the area tonight, the best radiational cooling should occur across mainly southeast KS with southwesterly low level flow returning to western and much of central KS.
Thanks to the strong sunshine on Thursday and above freezing temperatures on Friday, the snow pack is not ideal for blowing snow. but patchy blowing snow remains a possibility largely along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
832 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A cold front will move across the region tonight and early Friday accompanied by low clouds and a few showers and bringing an end to our stretch of warm and somewhat humid weather this week. Breezy northerly winds behind the boundary will usher in much cooler drier air Friday with temperatures about 15 to 25 degrees colder than today.
The biggest issue in the short term will be the possibility of high winds over the southshore tonight behind the cold front. We will have areas over the next two nights be at or below freezing.
A cold front will make its way through east central Florida overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning, as its associated low pressure begins to shift northeastward from off of the Carolina coasts.
508 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over IA will bring one more night of cold weather under clear skies.
706 PM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Ended up bumping lows up a touch since most of the guidance was much cooler than reality at the start.
Temperatures will drop steadily this evening as north winds decrease in speed, and the majority of the region will see lows at or below freezing by daybreak Friday. The entrance of a cool high pressure ridge will lead to light and variable winds on Friday while temperatures top out around 50. A return to southeast winds can be expected Friday evening as the ridge axis exits to the east. Areas east of the I-35/35W will likely drop in the low 30s with light winds and mostly clear skies, leading to efficient radiational cooling.
Higher elevations of western and central WY should remain just above freezing, remaining above the cold air inversions. Friday, the H5 ridge remains in place across the state, with broad westerly winds becoming notable for the northern mountain ranges.
/issued 213 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ A cold night is in store tonight as clearing skies late this afternoon and early this evening will allow for good radiational cooling of the cold air mass that moved in behind a cold front earlier today.
659 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Water vapor loop indicted an upper level trough located from northern SASK to southern ALTA. Downstream upper level ridge was over the area and will shift to the southeast overnight. Low level jet will occur east of upper trough and keep temps relatively mild overnight. Ensemble guidance agrees with this as most members keep surface temperatures near to just below freezing. If these warmer temperatures can start to mix down sooner higher temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are possible.
700 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend.
Luckily, temperatures will quickly rise above freezing by mid-morning, and with full sunshine most if not all of the ice and snow will quickly melt by afternoon. Strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will push drier air into Middle Tn through the next 24 hours.
310 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Currently, upper level ridging, accompanied by dry westerly flow at mid levels and dry southwesterly surface winds allowed temperatures to climb into the upper teens, 20s and 30s across nearly all of western and central North Dakota.
At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Rockies with weak lee trof present. Upper ridge remains over the area for the next several days.
343 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 For tonight thru Friday night benign weather is in the offing as a transient upper level ridge of high pressure moves eastward across the southern high plains.
921 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Low pressure heads east off SE US Coast tonight. Strong high pressure dominates Friday through the weekend, which starts cold and then moderates.
/Issued 343 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ For tonight thru Friday night benign weather is in the offing as a transient upper level ridge of high pressure moves eastward across the southern high plains.
Latest surface analysis places an elongated surface anticyclone over the central part of the country, centered from the Quad Cities southwest to Wichita. As a result, will favor CONSMOS in this scenario which will result in a drop in the low temp forecast at several locations. Skies will generally clear from north to south this evening with decreasing winds as Arctic high pressure builds directly over area by late tonight.
347 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Mostly clear skies will continue across the Upper Midwest, as a strong area of high pressure continues moving south through the Great Plains. A dry warm front will move east through the region overnight, with southwesterly winds and warm air advection. Overnight, patchy fog is possible across the region as the warmer temperatures contribute to snowmelt and trap the released moisture under a strong inversion.
Near the surface a strong cold front continues to moves east across the region exiting to the east later this afternoon, pushing most of the deep layer moisture to the south and east of the forecast area. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 30s for most inland areas and the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast. Highs Fri will range from the lower to middle 50s for all locations.
as deeper moisture vacates with moving weak LL trough axis and upper impulses. Later tonight, fairly sharp upper trough swings by but significant moisture/pcpn should be well east. While minor accumulation has occurred in spots, the higher elevations of the Plateau is where most snow is sticking, some places an inch of more right now. This high does expand southwest next few days and while we will see pretty cold mornings through Sun, afternoon temps will moderate nicely. Strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will push drier air into Middle Tn through the next 24 hours.
236 PM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over the Northern Rockies will slowly weaken over the next few days, however temperature inversions will remain in-place during this time for most snow covered valleys. Missoula and Salmon are standouts with respect to temperature inversions, with temperatures to be suppressed near to or below freezing. Patchy freezing fog is possible for valleys of west central and northwest Montana Friday morning.
* None Prototypical late winter anticyclone setup across Southeast Michigan today with deep column static stability from roughly 2. Many factors aligning to bring the high pressure, including negative differential cyclonic vorticity advection with exit of the trough axis, advent of deeper cold air advection, and confluent flow aloft drifting just east of Southeast Michigan. The anticyclonic gyre will support a deep anticyclone center from 875mb upwards of 400mb tracking directly through Southeast Michigan from 12-21Z Friday. Highs Friday are expected to be in the middle 30s some 10 degrees warmer than today.
An upper low near 140W/36N is bringing varying amounts of high level clouds over the area. As the upper low continues to move south, the cloud cover should also diminish which could result in milder temperatures Thursday afternoon.
Main concern through the rest of the day will be the gusty northerly winds in the cold front's wake. Temperatures across the northern counties tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s, while the rest of the region gets down into the upper 30s to low 40s. Friday will continue the mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures as high temperatures max out in the mid 50s. Areas generally just north of the metro area and east of I-45 may briefly drop to/below the freezing mark before sunrise Sat.
High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. Cloud cover has cleared out and high pressure builds across the area. Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight, although if the cloud cover lingers longer that expected, the lows will probably be too cold.
224 PM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Ridging will prevail over the region through Friday bringing dry and generally warmer conditions. Gusty to strong winds will continue along the western foothills from Livingston to Big Timber and Nye, and north to Harlowton, with breezy conditions for the central plains as high pressure west of the area interacts with lee-side troughing east of the Divide. Low temperatures tonight will range from around zero to possibly single digits below zero in some of the protected valleys in the east, to the lower 20s along the western foothills where winds will remain breezy overnight.
529 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Mostly clear skies will continue across the Upper Midwest, as a strong area of high pressure continues moving south through the Great Plains. A dry warm front will move east through the region overnight, with southwesterly winds and warm air advection. Overnight, patchy fog is possible across the region as the warmer temperatures contribute to snowmelt and trap the released moisture under a strong inversion.
Currently, upper level ridging, accompanied by dry westerly flow at mid levels and dry southwesterly surface winds allowed temperatures to climb into the upper teens, 20s and 30s across nearly all of western and central North Dakota.
/issued 329 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ This afternoon's GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough is continuing to slowly progress eastward across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. As the trough axis approaches and moves east of the CWA, upper level support for overrunning precipitation will decrease and result in showers coming to an end.