Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
320 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Upper level analysis has the Northern Plains under fast northerly flow aloft, with ridge to the west and trof to the east. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies with a weak frontal boundary across the eastern Dakotas. Western upper ridge will build over the northern Rockies and Plains, bringing dry and mild conditions for today and Saturday. Even warmer air will move into the area on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
After a great radiational cooling night, temperatures will climb into the teens as a strong upper level ridge moves overhead today giving mostly sunny skies and generally light winds. Warmer air begins to press east from the Great Plains. Saturday will be a much warmer day when the warmer air arrives driving temperatures above freezing.
and Saturday Cyclonic upper flow and a weak trough will bring some clouds to the northeastern third of the forecast area today. An upper ridge approaching the region Saturday should be accompanied by warm advection.
700MB temps are rather mild this afternoon, so the high country will see mild highs as well. Lows tonight will vary widely again with single digits in the western valleys to as mild as the lower 30s in some mixed locations. East of the divide, snow develops over the north as the cold front sags south into this area as the weather system moves over the area.
311 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 After a great radiational cooling night, temperatures will climb into the teens as a strong upper level ridge moves overhead today giving mostly sunny skies and generally light winds. Warmer air begins to press east from the Great Plains. Saturday will be a much warmer day when the warmer air arrives driving temperatures above freezing.
302 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Expect high pressure over the region today to guide mild temperatures and dry weather conditions. A cold frontal passage remains the expectation for Saturday yielding increasing westerly winds late in the day. Current guidance shows higher elevations such as the Little Rockies as having the higher wind gust potential, perhaps in excess of 40 mph at times.
351 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Upper level analysis has the Northern Plains under fast northerly flow aloft, with ridge to the west and trof to the east. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies with a weak frontal boundary across the eastern Dakotas. Western upper ridge will build over the northern Rockies and Plains, bringing dry and mild conditions for today and Saturday. Even warmer air will move into the area on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Much cooler on Saturday as onshore winds return ahead of the next cold front.
Latest surface analysis places high pressure over the western gulf with warmer air continuing to be transported into the region as this feature moves to the east through the period. In the upper levels, an amplified pattern is in place with a rather intense upper low centered over eastern Quebec with broad troughing over the central and eastern Conus. Weak ridging will be located over the state SaturdaY afternoon providing a sunny and warm start to the weekend before it slides sliding off to the east by the end of the period. As far as temperatures are concerned, widespread highs in the 50s are expected today with upper 50s to upper 60s expected on Saturday as that warmer air works its way in.
549 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 A weak disturbance will trigger light snow or flurries across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures only reaching the lower to middle 30s.
415 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies today and tonight, bringing mild and dry weather to srn Colorado. 700 mb temps jump back above 0C along and east of the mountains, which should lead to max temps breaking the 60f mark over the lower Arkansas Valley by afternoon. Tonight, lee trough persists, with just enough downslope wind to keep min temps on the mild side, especially along and west of I-25, where lows will stay in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Westerly flow aloft will produce very warm and dry conditions across the state on Sat, with forecast highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains.
Models did very well with this cold front the last few days until this morning. One thing that has the highest confidence with this is that there will be some breezy conditions ahead of and behind this system and this is not unusual as we approach the early part of spring. Headlines will be necessary for the late afternoon and evening hours over the open waters due to a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Northwesterly unidirectional flow today will result in good mixing and bring warmer air into the region this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The 850 mb temperatures will also be around 5C warmer at midday today than at the same time yesterday, which will further promote warming when we see that afternoon mixing. Consequently, we are expecting high temperatures today will be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s across our forecast area this afternoon. The best weather has been hitting about perfect on our weekends lately and this will again be the case this weekend with an upper level ridge moving through.
The next trof will be digging down the west coast later this weekend then eastward across northern Mexico and toward Texas as we head into the Tue-Wed timeframe.
528 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: High pressure remains dominant across the region. Today and tonight: High pressure still dominating much of the ArkLaMiss region today, but a quick short wave aloft is pushing some mid level clouds and sct showers across the northern tier of the state. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the day again, and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
416 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Northwesterly unidirectional flow today will result in good mixing and bring warmer air into the region this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The 850 mb temperatures will also be around 5C warmer at midday today than at the same time yesterday, which will further promote warming when we see that afternoon mixing. Consequently, we are expecting high temperatures today will be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s across our forecast area this afternoon. The best weather has been hitting about perfect on our weekends lately and this will again be the case this weekend with an upper level ridge moving through.
With high pressure once again in control of the sensible weather over the region, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the period.
Current forecast has highs 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday which looks good. Most of the plains should keep some wind so it will be a few degrees warmer. Accepted the latest guidance which was a little warmer than the previous forecast out on the plains and a bit cooler in the sheltered mountain valleys.
Otherwise, expect quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure slides by to the southwest. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure slides by to the southwest.
The coldest lows will be across the west and south in the low to mid 20s. A very mild day in store Saturday as a strong thermal ridge and zonal flow aloft extends across the Plains States. The far southwest will be the warmest in the lower 70s. A cold front will move through Saturday night along with an increase in clouds after midnight.
Afternoon high temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 30s.
1024 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies today and tonight, bringing mild and dry weather to srn Colorado. 700 mb temps jump back above 0C along and east of the mountains, which should lead to max temps breaking the 60f mark over the lower Arkansas Valley by afternoon. Tonight, lee trough persists, with just enough downslope wind to keep min temps on the mild side, especially along and west of I-25, where lows will stay in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Westerly flow aloft will produce very warm and dry conditions across the state on Sat, with forecast highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains.
(This afternoon through Saturday) The highlight in the short term will be fire weather and warm temperatures. With downslope flow and clear skies, kept today's temperatures toward the higher end of guidance. This combined with the low RH values in western Oklahoma and north Texas will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
Gilstad An upper ridge will cause mild and dry weather to continue across the Northern Rockies today into Saturday. Locally cooler air is possible this afternoon from central Carbon County northeastward to southwestern Yellowstone County as cooler air flows out of the Bighorn Basin. The upper ridge has also facilitated an appreciable sea-level pressure gradient over south central MT that has produced gusty winds in the Livingston to Nye corridor this morning. Low pressure over Canada will bring a cold front eastward over the area Saturday afternoon and cause winds to turn northwesterly. A few snow showers are possible over the lower elevations Saturday evening, but with strong subsidence expected in the middle levels of the atmosphere precipitation amounts will be light.
Even warmer air Saturday as many areas push well into the 50s with ample sunshine.
234 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
Doubt much of that actually made it to the ground given the dry air in the lower levels. A weak cold front will move through today, but mainly a wind shift as very little change in airmass across it. /GG/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: High pressure still dominating much of the ArkLaMiss region today, but a quick short wave aloft is pushing some mid level clouds and sct showers across the northern tier of the state. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the day again, and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Quiet conditions tonight as the upper level pattern goes from northwest to zonal with an approaching ridge in the Rockies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s. Saturday highs should reach into the low to mid 70s.
240 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 An upper trough is over the eastern part of the country with upper ridging over the western part.
A cold front will approach the region later tonight perhaps bringing some mountain snow showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. As a cold front moves across the region on Saturday, windy conditions can be expected along Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains with light precipitation developing over the mountains.
1022 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Upper level analysis has the Northern Plains under fast northerly flow aloft, with ridge to the west and trof to the east. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies with a weak frontal boundary across the eastern Dakotas. Western upper ridge will build over the northern Rockies and Plains, bringing dry and mild conditions for today and Saturday. Even warmer air will move into the area on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
To the east and west of this boundary that's been keeping a steady veil of stratus across our eastern counties, dry air under high pressure is the rule. On a positive note, the boundary should slide east into MN around 06Z, with warmer air advecting in aloft. Expect highs Saturday to top out in the 40s and low 50s where limited snow cover exists, mainly southwest of a line from Mobridge to Miller.
As high pressure slides eastward, surface winds will shift to the south overnight and into tomorrow morning. The next trof will be digging down the west coast later this weekend then eastward across northern Mexico and toward Texas as we head into the Tue-Wed timeframe.
Meanwhile, a broad h500 ridge should nudge the warm front east on Saturday, bringing mild air through the region.
This should put areas void of any meaningful snow pack into the 50s to perhaps around the 60 degree mark toward the MO River Valley and locations with a deeper snow pack likely stuck in the lower 40s.
Downslope slope flow this afternoon will allow for sufficient mixing of the lower levels which should result in temperatures continuing to rise quickly into the afternoon.
1135 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Northwesterly unidirectional flow today will result in good mixing and bring warmer air into the region this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The 850 mb temperatures will also be around 5C warmer at midday today than at the same time yesterday, which will further promote warming when we see that afternoon mixing. Consequently, we are expecting high temperatures today will be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s across our forecast area this afternoon. The best weather has been hitting about perfect on our weekends lately and this will again be the case this weekend with an upper level ridge moving through.
The main forecast challenge for the short-term period is when the low level stratus will move to the east. Given the possibility of moisture remaining wedged in the lower levels, there is a chance of fog formation overnight. There will be a warming trend into Saturday as an upper level ridge pushes east into the area.
An increase in clouds will accompany this warmer air, thus anticipate temperatures to be steady or slowly rise overnight with readings reaching around 20 degrees far northeast WI, middle 20s south.
The higher elevations of the NE mountains are the most likely area to get some accumulations. We think the highest elevations could as much as an inch to inch and a half with the lower elevations getting a half inch or less before ending.
With tightening surface pressure gradient and lee trough development to our west, south winds will increase on saturday morning and become gusty.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ An excellent weekend is in store for the Four-States region, as ridging aloft behind a weak frontal boundary will allow for the dry airmass to remain in place. Allowing for the lows tomorrow night to be well above average.
Stronger onshore flow on Saturday will bring cooling and higher humidity inland ahead of a low pressure system dropping south along the Central Coast.
With warm advection continuing Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will only fall into mid 20s to mid 30s.
With the southerly winds and moisture, overnight lows will be much warmer, with readings expected to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.
With warm temperatures above freezing today and afternoon sunshine bringing road temperatures into the 40s, initial snow accumulation may be on rooftops and grassy areas. On Saturday high pressure will move eastward out of the Mississippi Valley, providing us with mostly clear skies and a light west breeze. Temperatures will climb above freezing by early afternoon.
The wind should quickly diminish this evening as the temperature inversion sets up and high pressure begins to build into the area tonight. The upper pattern will begin to shift on Saturday with the upper trough moving east and upper ridging building into the area. Beneath the upper ridging, some low level warm advection will set up with some gusty south winds, especially in the western CWA. Highs will likely warm in to the low to mid 60s out west with upper 50s in the east. Lows will be in the low 40s in the southeast to the low 50s in the southwest.
High pressure aloft will move east across Utah today ahead of the storm system advancing into the Pacific Northwest.
924 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 High pressure ridge aloft will continue to build into the region with decreasing northwest flow aloft. Current forecast has highs 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday which looks good. Most of the plains should keep some wind so it will be a few degrees warmer. Accepted the latest guidance which was a little warmer than the previous forecast out on the plains and a bit cooler in the sheltered mountain valleys.
339 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
With a deep upper trough slowly drifting northeast off the east coast and high pressure building over the central US it's going to be hard to come across any moisture.
A band of heavier snowfall has produced around a half to one inch snow accumulations in the higher terrain of the southern Cumberland Plateau this morning, with radar showing more scattered coverage behind it. Across the higher terrain where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect, generally 1 to 3 inches can be expected today.
1125 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: A dry cold front will move through the region today serving more of a wind shift than anything else. Doubt much of that actually made it to the ground given the dry air in the lower levels. A weak cold front will move through today, but mainly a wind shift as very little change in airmass across it. /GG/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: High pressure still dominating much of the ArkLaMiss region today, but a quick short wave aloft is pushing some mid level clouds and sct showers across the northern tier of the state. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the day again, and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Lows this morning dropped to the lower-mid 40s across most of the area while rural areas from Lake and Volusia counties southward to Okeechobee county observed temps dropping below 40 degrees. Highs today will "warm" up to the lower to mid 60s under sunny skies and west-northwest to north light winds.
106 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
1113 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Currently - Visible satellite shows the lower deck of clouds that was over the Lower Keys is eroding. Overnight temperatures fell into the lower 50s across the Upper Keys, while only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. Since then, temperatures have recovered into the lower 60s in the Upper and Middle Keys, while holding steady in the lower 60s due to the cloud cover. High pressure resides to our west across the northern and northwestern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a reinforcing, weak cold front will move through the region Saturday, keeping daytime temperatures hovering the upper 60s with overnight lows ranging from lower 50s to near 60 degrees.
Easterly surface winds will be strongest across portions of the Snake Plain and Baker Valley as they feed into an approaching low pressure system. Temperatures have started off warmer than last several days and highs this afternoon will run 10-15 degrees above normal for most locations.
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control over Deep South Texas.
144 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 An amplified pattern remains in place aloft with ridging out west and a closed low over eastern Canada, with troughing extending across much of the eastern half of the U. At the surface, high pressure over Texas extends eastward across the Gulf and over Florida. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region during the day with little fanfare.
Another weak upper trough set to move across the region this evening.
442 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures abound this afternoon as warm air advection takes hold as the ridge of high pressure is beginning to shift over the forecast area. Temperatures tonight are not expected to be as chilly as recent nights due to the presence of increasing high clouds but they will still be below freezing. Mild conditions continue on Saturday with temperatures reaching above normal levels under southwest flow ahead of a positively tilted trough approaching from the PacNW. Some mid level clouds may enter by Saturday evening as this trough draws nearer with light orographic showers possible over the eastern Uintas Saturday evening.
Wind will go light and variable overnight at most TAF sites then come out of the S tomorrow and expect will be gusty in the afternoon as leeside trough deepens. /issued 240 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/ An upper trough is over the eastern part of the country with upper ridging over the western part.
510 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 (This afternoon through Saturday) The highlight in the short term will be fire weather and warm temperatures. With downslope flow and clear skies, kept today's temperatures toward the higher end of guidance. This combined with the low RH values in western Oklahoma and north Texas will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
Ridging will continue to build overnight and into tomorrow, with skies clearing and winds subsiding overnight. Highs could reach the low 70s if mixing is slightly greater than forecast, or moisture advection is slightly less than forecast. With lee troughing developing towards Colorado and western Kansas, a tight pressure gradient will form across central and eastern Kansas, resulting in some gusty southerly winds.
934 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A wave of low pressure will dive southeast into Ohio Valley this evening bringing light snow to southern locations. Wave of low pressure containing light snow has dropped around a half inch of accumulation. As expected, the snow is ending as the wave quickly exits the area, giving way to high pressure and clearing skies everywhere except Central Ohio where low clouds are expected to linger. Tranquil weather is expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph should help to keep temperatures feeling cooler.
306 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Temperatures across the region have moderated as an upper ridge begins to build into the central CONUS, with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the middle 50s in eastern Kansas to the middle 40s in northeast Missouri. The aggressive warmup continues into the weekend with continued upper ridging and a H85 thermal ridge nosing into the Mid- Missouri Valley.
GOES-16 imagery shows a large reservoir of clear skies to our north, and this will develop across the area tonight into Saturday as high pressure and drier air build in. Saturday, the high will shift east in the morning.
Cooler temperatures around the region over the weekend as a cold front moves through.
A weak cold front will bring cooler and breezier conditions for the weekend.
254 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 Minimal changes to the short term forecast, as the upper level ridge is in control over the region through the bulk of the period. Wind in preferred gap areas (Livingston and Nye) will be the main concern to start the period, as the upper ridge supports a strong surface pressure gradient over south central MT. Another dry and warm day is on tap for Saturday, but a cold front will cross the region through the afternoon causing winds to turn northwesterly, and usher in colder air. A few rain or snow showers are possible over the lower elevations Saturday evening, but strong subsidence in the middle levels should keep precip amounts light.
Abundant sunshine is being observed across most of the CWA, but a band of stratus on the western periphery of the trough remains nearly stationary across the eastern Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota. As the trough exits to the east, flow will turn more westerly and push this stratus eastward back into western Minnesota tonight.
658 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
Expect lows this evening in the low to mid 40s inland and in the 50s along the coast as an onshore flow pattern gradually begins to redevelop overnight. This will begin a string of warmer days across SE Texas, with highs reaching the the low to mid 70s in most locations on Saturday afternoon.
A reinforcing cold front will sweep across east central FL late tonight/early Sat with little fanfare. Chilly tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s with a light west wind ahead of the front. A reinforcing cold front will cross the waters overnight.