Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front will move through Friday evening. Models suggest frontal system off to the northwest will sag into the northern or central zones on Thursday, before lifting back to the north late Thursday night in response to developing low pressure in the Plains. Not a lot of forcing expected locally with this feature, given the low level jet will be focused farther to the northwest.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Thursday evening. A cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma after 23z Thursday.
Low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula will gradually push east today and tonight exiting east of the region. High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida on Friday in the wake of the low pressure system. High temperatures in the upper 70s near the coast to the lower 80s inland.
allowing for a quick transition to upper ridging across the area and dry forecast despite a SE low level fetch. Thicknesses should continue to allow for abnormally warm temps with highs in the low to mid 70s for much of the CWA today under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
High pressure over the region will keep VFR conditions through the period. As high pressure shifts eastward winds will become east to southeast this evening and tonight and increase and become gusty during the late morning hours Thursday. /issued 319 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface have continued to provide plenty of subsidence throughout the entire column this afternoon across Deep South Texas, leading to hot and dry conditions once again. Thursday, there will be elevated fire spread and growth concerns again with slightly higher winds shifting to the south/southeast as a low pressure system develops across the Central Plains.
Temperatures this morning are running a degree or two cooler than forecast suggesting snow will be the operative Ptype for this event and in fact. snow is underway at Valentine and Ainsworth with temperatures below freezing. The snow is sticking to the roads in Rushville where temperatures are in the mid 20s but not at Pine Ridge where it is 30F.
The upper low has moved off the west coast of Florida this afternoon while a mid level ridge has built over the Mid-South. Another very mild day on tap as we remain under the influence of the upper ridge over the southern U. Low pressure developing over the plains will begin to move northeast into the Mississippi Valley Thursday night. Ahead of the cold front expect a warm and breezy day for the Mid-South with highs well into the 70s. The cold front will plow through the mid south late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Much colder temperatures are forecast for Thursday behind a cold front moving through the area overnight. Current observations indicate that a cold front has moved into far northwest Arizona.
320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 An upper ridge of high pressure will bring another warm and dry day to Southeast Texas today. The ridge will push eastward as a storm system moves across the northern Plains on Friday and pushes a front across our forecast area. Much cooler temperatures will follow the cold front over the weekend.
1245 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Thursday will have increasing chances for rain late as a low pressure system approaches from the Plains.
1020 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017 Upper analysis shows a weak wave moving through the northern plains, and a trough pushing in over the west coast. Low pressure will deepen tonight as trough swings over the Rockies. Cold air will wrap into the area with easterly winds, and snow will expand northward across much of SD as the low moves across NE. Best frontogenesis still looks to be along the SD/NE border, with the higher amounts expected there. The 12Z NAM has come in with a slightly stronger low with a more northerly track, bringing the higher amounts of snow northward. Snow will begin to taper off across the area Friday morning as low pressure moves quickly into the upper midwest. Models are showing stronger winds than previously across south central SD behind the low on Friday.
A cold front over Utah will exit the area tonight. A cold front currently extends from east-central through south-central Utah this evening and will continue to shift east out of the forecast area overnight as a trough crosses the eastern Great Basin. A closed low embedded within the trough is currently centered near the northwest corner of Utah. As the closed low slowly shifts east overnight, this dry slot is expected to shift over the Wasatch Front which should bring a corresponding downward trend in precipitation overnight. Precipitation should pretty much wind down across the south by morning as the cold front exits the area. However, the opposite will be true for northern Utah, as moisture wrapping around the low will cause snow to increase again tomorrow morning.
Otw, upper level low is now located over FL and to our north, a warm front over IL and IN will continue to push slowly northward. Temps will again be in the 70s today, some upper ridge amplification will take place toward 00z.
On Thursday there is an upper level low approaching the forecast area. The upper level low moves from the central high plains, through northern Nebraska and northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, toward the Great Lakes area late Friday night. As the upper level low moves to the northeast Friday night, the snow will come to an end from west to east.
A front extends from the low from south central Kansas to the northeast into northeastern Missouri. Clouds will hang on longer across central Missouri where highs in the lower 70s are expected. Cooler temperatures will occur Friday as temperatures range from the lower 50s across southeastern Kansas to the middle 60s across south central Missouri.
Showers are anticipated to increase in coverage tonight and into tomorrow morning as a cold front works through the region. The heaviest accumulations are expected to occur tonight into tomorrow morning in tune with the progression of the cold front. As always, please check the latest forecast and road conditions before travelling! High temperatures tomorrow will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today and overnight lows will drop below freezing across the board for Thursday night. The closed low will transition to an open wave on Thursday as it heads towards the northern Plains with an unsettled northwesterly flow remaining in its wake. This will result in a continuation of showers over the higher terrain as activity begins to shut down from west to east.
Forecast soundings indicate low and mid level drying as high pressure begins to build aloft. Upper level low pressure will be over southern Florida Thursday morning with another deep upper level trough over the northwest quad of the nation. Western trough will move eastward increasing the southerly flow over the state. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind this boundary on Friday. High pressure will then settle over the area Friday night with much cooler conditions than what we have seen of late expected by the end of the period.
/issued 303 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/ Wx map shows departing sfc and upper low over FL, with weak high pressure over the area. Fog expected to dissipate by mid morning as southerly winds increase today as low pressure intensifies over the Central Plains. Expect warmer temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, about 10-15 degrees above normal.
1152 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and drift northward as a warm front Thursday night.
152 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 South winds in the lower trop will provide a warm air advection environ for the next 24 to 36 hours, prior to a now developing weather system taking shape and sweeping thru the area with showers and thunderstorms chances mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Air temps Today and again Fri will top out in the lower 70s, which will be approaching record warmth for this time of year: Today Record High.
The deep layer low pressure system that moved across the northeastern Gulf yesterday has slowly pushed southeast of our area, and at 500 mb a strong closed low currently sits over the southern FL Peninsula. Between this feature and relatively high pressure to our north, our area will remain under northeasterly flow throughout this period, and lingering low level moisture will continue to support ample cloud cover through this morning. As a result, increased solar heating will lead to warmer temperatures than yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across our area.
956 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure will build across the area through today.
Flat ridging with the flow turning slowly to the southwest as a sharp trough drops south into British Columbia and tracks into Alberta. This will generate a weak cold front that will cross our CWA Sunday. Minor perturbations in the 500mb fields each day suggest some weak monsoonal energy may produce some showers/thundershowers over and near the high country from the Absarokas/Beartooths to the Big Horns.
1007 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then move east on Sunday.
8 - 2 inch range and some glancing influence from a broad upper trough over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. /Issued 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ The base of a broad upper trough is in place across the region with weak cyclonic curvature at 500mb. This shift is due to the mean trough moving to the east coast and the ridge center building over the plains.
a weak high pressure ridge will continue over the northern Gulf. the forecast area is in between and upper trough over the Southern Plains and an anticyclone over the Eastern Gulf.
At the upper levels, ridging will shift NW as an inverted upper trough/weak TUTT low approaches south FL this evening. The trough will then move over the peninsula for Sunday with a little dry air moving in over the Nature Coast. This will allow generally scattered thunderstorms to develop each afternoon and evening with the highest rain chances across the south. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, and lows will be in the mid 70s north and inland to the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A broad upper trough over the MS River Valley will slowly shift east into the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain across the southern Florida Peninsula today. Plenty of sunshine to start today for temperatures to warm into the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s inland.
608 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Water vapor satellite early this morning indicates a weak short wave trough was over North Dakota.
Over the last 24 hours the deep layer ridge over the region has weakened per analyses.
747 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 Low pressure will drift east through the Ohio Valley today and Sunday with a weak front trailing east to the Mid Atlantic coast and west into the Central Plains.
There appears to be a lack of a forcing mechanism to get new convection going today and it may depend on orographics initially, then outflow boundaries should help generate more convection in the lower elevations. With the increased moisture in the air today combined with dust which blew in from near Phoenix last night partially blocking the sun, temperatures will likely not reach the previously forecasted highs in many areas. I updated the forecast for today to make some minor adjustments to cloud cover and to lower the high temperature forecast a bit in some locations. Storms expected to develop this afternoon in the high terrain and in Clark/Mohave Counties with gusty/erratic outflow winds, locally lowered CIGs, and lightning all threats.
A pocket of slightly drier and warmer air aloft will be moving over northeastern Colorado, though the persistent easterly low level flow will continue on the plains and slow the drying at the surface. Between the little bit of warming and mixing out of the low level moisture, expect pretty good capping over and just east of the mountains. Less clouds and the slight warming will translate into warmer highs today.
1235 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then move east on Sunday.
Smoke layers with MVFR visibilities will continue in the Lowman area and surrounding valleys. But increasing westerly flow around an upper-level trough over British Columbia will quickly push it back out of the area tonight. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday, but still near seasonal normals. Upper level westerly winds increase on Sunday, so should see breezy conditions in the Snake Plain, and over the ridgetops.
516 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Current surface map shows high pressure ridge across the upper midwest, with weak trof across Montana into Wyoming. Upper ridge shifts east Sunday as trof moves across western Canada. Surface trof slides into northeast Wyoming/far western South Dakota Sunday afternoon/evening and will be the focus for thunderstorm development. High temperatures will be in the 80s to around 90s today, with some 70s in the higher elevation of the Black Hills. Warmer on Sunday, with most locations on the plains into mid 90s.
Much drier air progged to move in Sunday as high pressure builds and subsidence increases. from the lower 90s east to around 100 west. Will lower rip current risk to low today and tomorrow as the low long period swell that had been indicated in obs has subsided further and should not have much impact.
1149 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A weak upper level trough and remnant frontal boundary will keep chances for scattered showers and storms in the forecast today into tonight, best chances during the afternoon hours.
An upper level low pressure trough will track across British Columbia today through Sunday morning, brushing western Washington and increasing our cooling onshore flow.
The broad upper-level trough remains in place across the region guiding weak disturbances along it and in combination with plentiful moisture and daytime heating, additional scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible today. Many will see partly cloudy skies with temps reaching the lower 90s and heat index values into the upper 90s, until the rain arrives.
There is more moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere compared to yesterday. With the high PW and storm motion around 10 knots, the environment is also poised for efficient rain producers that may cause some urban poor drainage and low- lying area flooding. The weakness in the upper pattern across the lower Mississippi River Valley continues to allow diurnal development of convection. Away from direct marine influences, temperatures are generally in the 70s, but a sites with water nearby are in the lower 80s.
859 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A cooling trend to begin today as the dominating high pressure pattern weakens.
1040 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure centered over the SW U. This slow moving trough will help push the high pressure to the south and east today and Sunday. This movement will gradually position the ridge to help draw moisture north and into the area. A better surge of moisture will move over the area on Sunday as the high pressure over the southwest CONUS begins to be pushed to the east. daytime temperatures will run a little cooler. Nighttime lows will be on the warmer side for the same reason.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 92 73 / 30 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 73 89 71 / 70 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 90 70 / 40 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 87 67 / 50 40 40 30.
An upper level trough will support cooler temperatures this weekend.
At 500mb, the pattern is fairly stagnant, with a ridge sitting over the central US, and weak flow across the Florida peninsula. The last couple of soundings continue to show the freezing level well above 15k ft, almost 16k ft, and the 500mb temp around -6C to -6.
The weak and broad upper troughing pattern will continue into this weekend.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.
TFJ Previous Discussion: Upper low over British Columbia and diffluent flow into Alberta generating thunderstorms over the Canadian Rockies early this morning. Additional storms will generate through the day but with upper low dropping south, could see the storms slip across the border and track along the hiline tonight. As the upper low moves into Alberta on Sunday, the surface dry line/cold front pushes through eastern Montana.
spreading into the lower elevations late this afternoon and evening. Monsoonal moisture will continue to flow into the area through the period allowing for cooler daytime temperatures and widespread increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon hours. Expect showers and thunderstorms to initially develop over the mountain regions today, then move into the lower valleys by mid afternoon.
The base of a broad upper trough is in place across the region with weak cyclonic curvature at 500mb. This shift is due to the mean trough moving to the east coast and the ridge center building over the plains.
With another active day over the higher terrain of Central AZ, anticipate that there is still a chance for storms over the Valley floors. But, temps look to be below normal east of the Lower Colorado River Valley.
Edge of deeper moisture aloft is analyzed to be located from NE to SW across the W Gulf into the Lower Rio Grande Valley.
Better storm chances are expected to arrive tonight with both the GFS and NAM hinting at some weak upper energy moving out of southern WY and into the high Plains. A few storms may linger Sun morning over eastern KS before some weak upper ridging moves in.
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes down into northern MO places the area in clear skies and light winds overnight. Outside of the heat island around the metro area, the low temperatures are expected to drop down enough to create areas of fog and lower visibilities. Saturday night into Sunday morning a stationary boundary over northern Arkansas and Oklahoma returns to the area as a warm frontal boundary.
Forecast for today remains on track as a ridge of high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and South Florida will control the sensible weather features. With limited cloud cover today, and temperatures peaking in the lower 90's, expect heat index values to breach the 100 degree mark. A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is still on track to approach our county warning area tonight and in to Sunday, with the vertical column moistening and winds increasing across our coastal waters. A ridge of high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and South Florida will keeps winds light to gentle today, promoting optimal boating conditions.
1053 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 Low pressure will drift east through the Ohio Valley today and Sunday with a weak front trailing east to the Mid Atlantic coast and west into the Central Plains.
Active period through tomorrow, with one short wave trough due in later today and a stronger one due in tomorrow. Temps will be mild today and tomorrow, with the valleys reaching the lower to mid 50s as warm air advection ahead of the short waves continues. Total QPF in the short term will vary from around a third of an inch in the lower elevations to as much as 1.
An upper level trough currently near the Big Bend moves across our area today. Ahead of the trough, a band of showers and thunderstorms producing moderate to heavy rains with a trailing area of light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms gradually moves off to the east. The heaviest rains will be near the Coastal Plains to along the Highway 77 corridor during the predawn hours with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain expected, causing some minor flooding. Tonight into Tuesday, the upper level trough slowly closes off and moves to the lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast while an upper level ridge builds into Western Texas.
Precipitation will become showery again late Tuesday with a cold front passage overnight dropping snow levels to valley floors.
Another unseasonably warm day as the H5 ridge moves over the CWA with max temps approaching record values today. This ridge will move off the east coast with the next short wave, currently over the southern plains, moves into the southeast Tuesday. With a low level east flow Tuesday, max temps will be slightly cooler, but still above normal.
242 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Longwave trough emerging over the front range this morning exists as a result of a brief phased period between lower amplitude Pacific jet energy and the wave that came onshore in California a couple of days ago. Through mid-day today, this spells downstream ridge amplification overhead and light southeast flow at the surface in the wake of departing high pressure. Cirrus will spill across the ridge axis providing the only cloud cover on an otherwise clear day. A band of showers is modeled to be sustained by a weak prefrontal trough associated with the weakening low-level jet axis.
This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal. Stout/gusty northwest winds will affect Russell and Great Bend by late morning in wake of a cold front.
A weak 850 mb trough was located over SW TX. The best 700 mb moisture was also located over N TX with a weak trough over W TX. 300 mb winds show a diffluent pattern over E TX with a deep trough over the 4 corners extending south into northern Mexico. SE TX will lie on the east side of the upper trough through this evening so periods of light rain will persist this afternoon but heavy rain is not expected after 18z. The upper level trough axis will push east of the region tonight and drier weather is expected Tuesday. A weak 500 mb ridge amplifies slightly over Texas Wed/Thu so continued dry weather is expected with unseasonably warm temperatures.
Upper level ridging is currently centered over our area and with just a few cirrus clouds around some fog has developed. An upper trough will slowly work eastward and a closed low will develop tonight over southeast TX. Latest NAM is not as quick to close the trough leading to more QPF up our way. Regardless, showers should hold off until the daylight hours on Tuesday as the upper trough/low moves southeastward.
338 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build in from the west today and will crest over the area tonight. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the west.
231 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight, then move offshore on Tuesday.
340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and will continue shifting east today. Weak ridging builds in through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to boost temperatures well above normal.
715 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build in from the west today and will crest over the area tonight. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the west.
This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal.
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build across the region later today through early Tuesday.