Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE IS CROSSING THE ROCKIES. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AND SO THE ECM/GFS HAVE HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM. TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACTUAL TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER THAN PREDICTED. SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
OR IN THE LOWER 20S THERE. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFT INTO THE FA. REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MID LEVEL SW FLOW THURSDAY AS NEXT MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE.
213 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H8 TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WEST TO EAST CLEARING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS THE MAIN AXIS CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A HINDER TO PRECIP. COOLER AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W/NW.
241 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
353 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS 1000-15000 FEET AGL THIS MORNING THEN LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE DAY AND EVENING TO 5000-8000 FT AGL. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK TOWARDS THE WESTERN U. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
1023 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 High pressure to the east and developing low pressure west will result in a tightening pressure gradient today. Warmer.
DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON FRI WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 70S. -HOWERTON OVERALL PATTERN STARTS WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TRANSITIONS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH BY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE HIGH END OF HIGH CATEGORY IN NE EDGE OF FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
215 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN KPHP AND KPIR. A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM THE LOW INTO SERN NE AND NRN MO. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
230 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EJECTS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF A TULIA TO MORTON LINE STAND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MAKING THE THREE HOUR REQUIREMENT.
Normals for the latter half of February fall into the lower 40s.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. KEEPING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEAMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES OUR REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
407 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT FREEZING FOG LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AN ISSUE PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-40. AFTER DEALING WITH THE FREEZING FOG ISSUE. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK NICELY TOMORROW WITH SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 1023 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ High pressure to the east and developing low pressure west will result in a tightening pressure gradient today. Warmer.
As the trough approaches, a lee trough will strengthen in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in increasing south winds tonight. Record to near record highs are expected in the lower to middle 80s, with the warmest readings along and just west of the dryline.
THE WARMING TREND WILL SOON BEGIN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Unless the low clouds accelerate out of here by late morning, it looks like the RIDGE will catch up to the backedge, resulting in it stalling, allowing the low clouds to linger for much longer into tonight or even regain some ground back to the northwest and north late today as the flow at cloud level becomes southerly. Given the warmer start to the day and southerly flow developing in the afternoon, should see max temps today higher than persistence at all sites, and thought MOS values were good first guesses at most sites.
104 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 30S. IT WONT TAKE MUCH FOR A DAY TIME RISE OF 5 DEGREES TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
An upper level ridge will move out of the Rockies and over the central Plains this afternoon and tonight. This will pull the lee side trough currently set up over eastern Colorado out into western Kansas this morning which will keep winds fairly light across western Kansas through much of the day.
At the surface, high pressure will remain off to the east, while a lee trough develops overnight into Thursday. A strengthening 850 mb thermal ridge will result in well above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor, to the low and middle 80s elsewhere.
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS HIGH HAS BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AROUND BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
358 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
322 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED MENTIONING OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT NRN ZONES THRU MID MORNING HRS ON THU. SLOW EROSION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PER NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES MOVING FROM THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY 17/18Z INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18/18Z. SOME IFR FREEZING FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE 18/04Z-18/15Z PER CEILING EROSIONS.
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE RH MINS WILL BE THE LOWEST AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS NICE AND WARM WITH LOTS OF CIRRUS UNDER THE EASTWARD MIGRATING RIDGE. AFTER THAT THE PENDULUM SWINGS BACK COOLER FOR US WITH FRESH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE EAST TO LOW 50S IN THE WEST.
1121 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
312 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN USUAL.
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROF OVER EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS INCREASE 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NE TO THE LOW 40S SW. AS A RESULT OF THIS WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE EAST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE WEST.
345 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SWING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TO SETTLE OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 17 /ISSUED 254 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WHILE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE WEST COAST.
RIDGE - ERN U. TROUGH PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY /MENTIONED ABOVE/ REMAINING INTACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
256 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALIGNED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF ASCENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ERODING. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL PIVOT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING SOME PERSISTENT WINDS OVER 10 KTS.
146 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT KTRI AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT KTYS AND KCHA FOR NOW.
131 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. FLOW DIMINISHES AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 1057 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
237 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 235 PM CST HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES NORTH OF I-80. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW MID 20S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO MOVES OVERHEAD LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD MIXING SO RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE REFREEZING OF WET ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. AND A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 ONLY CRACKING THE LOWER 40S. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED ON RIDGES.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN SC DECK FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TOMORROW AND SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME RAIN AND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS LESS DENSE. AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH EASTERN UT AND SHOULD BE SWEEPING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH UNDER THE EXITING LONGWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
As high pressure drifts east of the region on Thursday, strong southerly winds will develop across central Illinois.
A large upper ridge to our west will slide across the Plains overnight as an UA trough comes ashore along the West Coast.
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE REFREEZING OF WET ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. AND A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 ONLY CRACKING THE LOWER 40S. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED ON RIDGES. OUR REGION WILL ENJOY A QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN.
254 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 Following a relatively mild overnight tonight, a fast-moving cold front is expected to move across the Northern Rockies from the west Thursday morning through early afternoon. Subfreezing temperatures will combine with gusty winds and brief bouts of snowfall over area mountain passes during this time. For most low elevation locations, Thursday afternoon temperatures will only be slightly cooler than today, however Thursday night temperatures will cool off enough that isolated slick spots may surprise anyone driving through the region.
REGION IS UNDER A GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH AN OVERCAST CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR AHEAD OF INCOMING TROUGH. TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DAWN WITH SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MSL. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THU. AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS. WHAT IS LEFT OF IT/S AXIS MOVES THROUGH THU AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS TROUGH. WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR STREAMING IN AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND A BIT COOLER.
1145 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAVE DEPARTED THE GEORGIA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
1245 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
217 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA WERE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IS WHAT EFFECT THE HIGH CLOUDS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SW VA AND ALONG THE TN/NC LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly, beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really begins.
1231 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC TROF AKA DWPT FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING CWA AS OF 07Z. H5 TROF SCOOTING ACRS ONTARIO WL BRING INCREASING CLDS OVR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS.
A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING.
1127 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 ALOFT: THIS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF HAS BEEN LOCKED-IN FOR THE LAST MONTH. THE STORM OVER THE E PAC WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT FORCING THE WRN RIDGE E. SO RISING HEIGHTS TODAY WITH NW FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AT THIS TIME. A PAC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TODAY AND PRESS FURTHER INLAND THRU THE WRN USA TONIGHT. WARMER AS MOST OF S-CNTRL NEB SURGES INTO THE 50S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK TOWARDS THE WESTERN U. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
258 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 Main concern over the next few days will be wildfire danger as temperatures warm to near record values in the lower to mid 70s, and a very strong low-level jet positions over the region.
HAVE SEEN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
400 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12C TO 15C TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. A POCKET OF FREEZING TEMPS DEVELOP IN THE PLATTE VALLEY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD MORNING. THIS FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION AND PRODUCES A FORECAST ABOUT 1 DEGREE WARMER THAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
319 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 Fast, progressive flow pattern in place aloft with upper ridge building east into the Rockies today with a strong trough approaching the west coast. This will bring much warmer air into the area, with increasing mixing allowing for very strong winds to reach the surface. Will go ahead with a Wind Advisory for much of east central Kansas where the highest confidence in the stronger winds exists.
219 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 DRY COLD FRONT NEAR CEDAR KEY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 KNOTS. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
1149 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 Northwest flow aloft will continue through much of Wednesday before a western ridge enters the area through Thursday. Southerly surface flow will begin the warming trend today with highs peaking in the in the mid to upper 50s for areas south of the I-70 corridor, with areas north staying in the low to mid 40s underneath lingering cloud cover.
THIS COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDLEVELS DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
345 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
1126 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 254 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WHILE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE WEST COAST.
1248 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
High pressure at the surface has pushed across the forecast area and where the sky has cleared out over the western portion of the forecasts area, we have seen some light fog develop. Upper ridge will edge closer to the forecast area tonight and will start to see fairly strong low level warm advection set up. Upper ridge moves overhead, with very strong low level south to southwest winds setting up over the area during the day.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH TRIALING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER ZONAL IN NATURE TO END THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE MOVES EAST.
327 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALSO REMAIN PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW/MID CLOUDS OF EARLIER TODAY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. TO MOVE EAST AND GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME FOG/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. RIDGING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
1039 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016 AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS LESS DENSE. AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH EASTERN UT AND SHOULD BE SWEEPING THROUGH WESTERN CO.