Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
328 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015 Weak surface ridging will build into northern/northeastern and central Missouri tonight with light to calm winds expected. So with clear skies in the that portion of the forecast area and light winds, temperatures are likely to fall into the lower 30s with some sheltered areas likely falling into the upper 20s.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY DROP TO AT OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING.
INCLUDING A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING FROM THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA. HEADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE. THE RIDGING SHOULD MOSTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
608 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES ON THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS ROTATING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THIS PCPN WAS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EL PASO COUNTY INTO KIOWA COUNTY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
1220 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 COLD FRONT ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AT THIS WRITING. AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTH/WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE HIGH RIDGES OVERTOP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. IT DRAWS DOWN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE HIGH FIRMS ITS GRIP ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An elongated ridge of high pressure which stretches from the east-central Great Plains up into central Canada will continue slide east tonight. Upstream temperatures this morning fell into the low to mid 30s across southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. With strong low level flow from the south to southwest will see low level moisture return ramp up, but still feel that precipitation will be slow to move into forecast area due to weak upper level ridge.
237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE JET LIFTING EVEN FARTHER NORTH.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.
1227 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO THE MISSOURI BASIN DRIFTS EAST TODAY SETTING UP A COOL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM KANSAS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WHICH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE OBVIOUS CULPRIT IS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF UTAH WILL RETURN SOUTH AND WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT DRY AIR ALOFT WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS. AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
High pressure will move nearly right over the top of the area with morning lows falling into the middle 30s. Temperatures Thursday will then climb into the lower to middle 60s for tomorrow afternoon. A broad upper level ridge will move across the Plains Thursday into Thursday night and push the cool Canadian high east of the region. This will allow moisture to return from the Gulf region in earnest as strong southerly winds bring warmer temperatures and more moisture into the Ozarks.
UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LARGE TROUGH FROM THE INTERIOR ROCKIES TO WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIF. WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION OVER GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVING EAST VERY BROAD RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS.
318 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SHELTERED VALLEY TEMPS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND EVEN THE UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS DUE TO THE AIR MASS DESCENDING ON THE EAST KENTUCKY WILL LEAD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT.
342 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 LINGERING CLOUD COVER/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD FAR NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS MN. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN WHERE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A CLOSED 700MB LOW AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT.
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH MORE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. DUE TO THE HIGHLY VARIABLE REGIME. AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE BUILDING A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS JAMES BAY WILL FILL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE.
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH MORE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS JAMES BAY WILL FILL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE.
321 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I40 THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE S AND SE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT MAX LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME CONVECTION MAY LIFT OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LIMITING AFT/EVE DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTHERN OK BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
312 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S MAY MITIGATE SOME OF THE FROST THREAT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER NW WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED THU AS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SETTLES OVER IL BY SUNSET THU.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE ROCKIES AND THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE OVER DEAF SMITH/OLDHAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A STALLING COLD FRONT AND ADVANCING DRYLINE. WE COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE THE FIRST FEW UPDRAFTS GET TOPPLED AS THEY ASCEND INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. THIS WILL BE OVERCOME BY A COMBINATION OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE, ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY, AND INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED MILLIBARS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY. WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RENEWED AREA OF LEE TROUGHING SETS UP AND PUSHES THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES EASTWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH AND AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST TN AND WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
552 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015 Weak surface ridging will build into northern/northeastern and central Missouri tonight with light to calm winds expected. So with clear skies in the that portion of the forecast area and light winds, temperatures are likely to fall into the lower 30s with some sheltered areas likely falling into the upper 20s.
1122 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
SFC ANALYSIS HAS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND ESE WINDS. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER TX WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME.
A WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
331 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT LOOSENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW. BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR THESE TEMPERATURES. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FAR SW CONUS AND BAJA MEXICO. A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXISTS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. TONIGHT THE LOW MOVING WAVE WILL STILL BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD T. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING WEST OFF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH ALONG THE RIDGES. THIS HEAVIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGHING IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.
and cooler temps with the front. Southern Plains in ridge.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA TODAY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY AIR WITH IT (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH ONLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT) SO SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORELINES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH A FEW WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CRAWLS TO EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
229 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES WHILE THE TROUGH BROADENS A BIT FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
616 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL STALL OVER NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING.
349 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL THEN POUR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SMALL BUT EFFECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
405 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES WHILE THE TROUGH BROADENS A BIT FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM REACHING THIS FAR EAST.
LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE SE UPSLOPE FROM THE OUTER BANKS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES HAS DUMPED IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN MN TODAY WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ESSENTIALLY PARKING ITSELF THROUGH WESTERN WI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 30S. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON PUSHING THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AS BLOCKING HIGHS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PAC.
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
327 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL BE ENDING THE RAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ON AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA WITH SCT- NUM SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E TROUGH SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH. STEADY DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO STEADY CLEARING (AT LEAST IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF) AND MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
The HRRR indicates an upper low was meandering over confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers most of the morning then it slowly lifts it toward EVV this aftn. Cleared the mention of rain in the wake of this trough. After today cooler and drier air will filter into the region with temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal for highs and lows.
ON WEDNESDAY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY DURING WEDNESDAY TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR AREA SO EXPECT TO SEE ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST DEVELOP/SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. FORCING IS QUICK TO EXIT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SO HAVE TAPERED PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. BY MIDDAY TOMORROW THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. U/L TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE W/NW FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED THROUGH THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEST.
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 VFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF HOUSTON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE IT EAST TO A SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AXIS BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO TEXAS.
423 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THOUGH WITH UPPER TROUGHING SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
302 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL WRAP WESTWARD OVERNIGHT SO HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY OR JUST A TOUCH LOWER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRIER BOUNDARY AND LOW LVL AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER-DECK LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER-DECK WAVE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO ND & MN. DOWNSTAIRS THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION SINCE LAST WEEKEND HAD CREPT S/SE INTO N & NW KS WITH BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON KRSL. TODAY: THE BEHAVIOR OF THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION. A 3RD (& STRONGER) MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT'LL LIKEWISE ALSO PUSH E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE LOWER-DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN NM. ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY IMPACT KRSL AND KHUT AS WELL AS KCNU WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 03-15Z.
BUT NOT REACH FREEZING. E-CNTRL WI TO BE HEADLINE-FREE AS NE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT AROUND 20 KTS PLUS WARMER BAY/LAKE MI WATER TEMPS HELP HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. A PREVAILING NE WIND WL CONT TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPS AND DELTA T/S ALSO MAY GENERATE LAKE CLOUDS AT TIMES AS WELL.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cold front is beginning to move into northern Missouri early this morning. So have the highest PoPs across northern Missouri for this morning and then taper them further south later in the day. The other story with this front will be the much cooler air settling southward. And in our south, where there should still be some good heating, highs look to climb into the lower 80s. The cooler weather looks to stay with us through the rest of the forecast, being reinforced by high pressure in the Great Lakes and east northeasterly surface flow.
254 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The upper level trough that was moving to the west and brought showers to the eastern Ozarks today will begin to shift back to the east as the upper level flow catches it and moves it east. This will occur as a cold front approaches the region and moves through the area into tomorrow. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow are only expected to rise into the lower 70s even after the low overnight stratus burns off and the comes out for tomorrow afternoon. The forecast for the remainder of the week will feature cooler, more fall like weather as the upper level pattern transitions to northwest flow aloft and additional Canadian air filters south across the plains and into the Ozarks.
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AS IT SLOWS UP AND PINCHES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. WITH BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS LINING UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
408 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.