Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will continue to build in across the region tonight into Wednesday. The high is NOT of arctic or Canadian origin. Biggest question is whether we will get any clearing under the dome of high pressure. Even if we finally were to get rid of the lower clouds, high clouds ahead of the next storm system will likely be streaking northeast into the region later Wednesday. This will set the stage for another fairly widespread rain event across the lower Ohio Valley region. Once again, MUCAPES are expected to bounce up into the 100-300 J/KG range as a negatively tilted H50 trof rotates around the base of the closed low Thursday afternoon/evening.
324 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will track southeast through central North Carolina today. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build into the region from the northwest tonight and Thursday. Cold front approaching the area is currently settled along the WV/VA border. Regardless highs will be in the lower 60s across the north and near 70 degrees in the south. High pressure will be in control for much of the day on Thursday as an upper level ridge moves over central North Carolina. A bit cooler with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A closed upper low over the desert southwest will continue to meander this direction in the coming days. Precipitation will mostly affect the southern half of the state, but will spread north Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as the upper low approaches.
406 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will pass through the area this morning. High pressure will build toward the region today before settling overhead Thursday.
323 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure was centered over Missouri and extended westward into eastern Kansas. South to southwest winds have developed across north central Kansas on the back side of the high at 09Z where temperatures have slowly risen over the past couple of hours. High clouds will continue to stream northward today as an upper level low moves northeastward into western and central Kansas. Tonight with the approach of the upper trough and associated energy rotating around it expect to see an increase in low level moisture with southerly winds increasing in the 950mb-850mb layer.
A cold front will continue to push through the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
243 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Surface map early this morning has a ridge of high pressure extending from KS/MO northward through eastern MN/western WI. plan on overnight lows in the middle 20s to the lower 30s. Looks like mainly rain, but may see some patches of freezing rain as well as temperatures bottom out in the lower/middle 30s.
Areas of freezing fog have been observed across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, which may present the possibility of slick spots on elevated surfaces during the morning commute. A broad trough over the southwestern CONUS will lift northeast through the morning and eventually provide steady southwest flow aloft by the afternoon. Overnight lows through this period will also remain above freezing for most areas until late in the weekend. As the southwestern trough lifts northeast, broad ascent will accompany low level moisture transport, sufficient for a chance of rain showers across central Missouri.
The strongest storms since 1:00 AM have been along the highway 59 corridor between Sugar Land and Wharton. Rain and thunderstorms will continue over the area through tonight and into Thursday as the upper low over New Mexico moves northeastward into the Central Plains. Chances for isolated severe storms with locally heavy rainfall look better Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the main upper trough and the right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet move overhead.
overnight lows should fall slowly into the low 40 to low 50s. A stronger upper level low pressure system now moving into far west Texas will lift northeast through Thursday. The upper low should lift northeast away from the area later Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east.
319 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will pass through the area this morning. High pressure will build toward the region today before settling overhead Thursday.
High temperatures had topped out in the low 80s along the east coast with mid-80s inland, values around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Wednesday into Thursday, expect more of the same with upper level high pressure ridging in place. Skies will be mainly clear with maximum temperatures in the low to mid 80s, 5 to 7 degrees above normal.
The exceptions will be the Coteau region which I'll explain next - and around the periphery of the CWA where there is less snow cover (south) and the higher terrain (west). These favorable mixing conditions will allow for the warmer air aloft to mix to the surface and keep temperatures mild overnight and into Wednesday. Models show some light QPF/drizzle signature but on closer inspection NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles only show moisture through the lowest 2-3kft and thus this will more than likely just be a layer of stratus and is not thick enough to generate precipitation with dry conditions aloft.
Warmer weather is in the offing too as temperatures head toward 50 by the weekend. There are areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle across northern Michigan and Wisconsin and this will be moving south. Added some freezing drizzle to the northern zones for overnight. Ridging aloft and at the sfc will erode the clouds during the day and we may see some sun late.
344 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure will redevelop off the mid Atlantic coast early today.
Upper low over the desert southwest will move northeastward and off the front range of the Rockies later today and tonight, and this will send the stalled front back to the north a bit.
331 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 At 230 am, the remaining light rain showers were moving northward into the panhandle following a vort lobe pivoting north around an upper low centered over nrn NM/srn CO. The broad upper-low/trough will translate slowly northeast today across West Texas and the southern plains. The airmass will be drying out and large-scale upward motion will be very weak so we don't expect any more showers despite the trough crossing overhead. Warmer temperatures will accompany the developing southwest breezes and highs this afternoon should be mainly in the middle to upper 50s. A progressive series of upper level troughs will affect the area through the week ahead. Unfortunately, we will see mostly wind with little precipitation from the trough train. Thursday will begin to see the increased surface winds despite short wave ridging aloft.
The upper low responsible for pulling the gulf and Pacific moisture across the region is located in the SW States and NW Mexico. Lift will increase as the surface and upper lows draw closer which will increase pops, mainly late tonight. The low will continue northeast Thursday pulling the frontal boundary eastward.
Gradual Warming Trend and More Active Weather through the Patchy to areas of fog will persist through this morning particularly on the higher terrain due to stratus build down. Otherwise expect clouds to persist today as an upper low pressure system lifts northeast from the Texas Big Bend region.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb low/trough across the southwest United States/northern Mexico early this morning will move eastward today. Rain chances will increase tonight into early Thurs morning as the upper level trough moves eastward across northwest TX and the stationary frontal boundary draped across the area provides a focus for elevated convection along and north of the front.
Winds will gradually decrease a bit towards morning so still expect the lowest readings towards morning. West to southwest winds will continue to bring even warmer 925mb temps into the area, and there should be some decent mixing. Think that mixing and warm air advection will help, but did lean towards the cooler end of the models with mid teens just east of the Red and some upper teens and 20s elsewhere. 500mb ridging will continue through the work week with temps hinging on fog development and clouds. Over the weekend light precip chances increase with a rain and snow mix, depending on the time of day, as short wave energy undercuts the ridge.
Upper trough moving east across Ohio Valley this morning is pushing a cold front across eastern sections of the forecast area this morning. The front to the south will begin to move back north as a warm front with moisture overrunning it late tonight.
The pattern will start out relatively benign in the beginning with just some rain chances across the northern and eastern counties tonight as an upper low passes over the lower Great Lakes Region. As this low passes to the east, high pressure will quickly build into central Indiana behind it, resulting in dry conditions for Wednesday. After that, the pattern becomes more active when the first of several low pressure systems approaches from the southwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s, which was captured best with a blend. First, dry conditions will prevail tomorrow with a brief period of ridging over the area. However, isentropic lift will intensify further on Thursday night as the trailing upper low provides additional forcing.
Upper level ridge across Florida will dampen a little this morning before amplifying to our west over the Gulf tonight. Trended just a little lower with dewpoints (still in the low to mid 60s) than previous forecast to go along with new guidance.
night periods as high pressure ridging transitions to SW flow. Biggest challenge for the forecast will be the high temperatures. The forecast looks cooler and somewhat unsettled.
The mid level low is progged to shift southeast by late Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses.
1127 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 A large upper low remains entrenched across the Desert Southwest while a surface front remains stationary along the Upper Texas Coast. The upper low off to the west will move east Wednesday, causing the main area of precipitation to shift east of the area. Conditions should improve quickly Thursday morning as the upper low swings east into the MS Valley. /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ With upper troughing entrenched over the Desert Southwest, a deep tropical plume downstream has kept North and Central Texas cloudy today, preventing the shallow postfrontal air mass in place from moderating today.
1240 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level low keeps clouds in place today.
What a change a day can make, our storm system has exited the region and has been replaced with full sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cut off upper level low will track northeast into our forecast area on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected with this system. We are really only expecting an increase in mid to high level clouds as this upper low tracks overhead.
Pronounced Upper level ridge axis (500 mb heights between 564-566 DAM) will be overhead tomorrow, and NAM soundings still maintaining low clouds, but with the inversion based around 1 kft, will favor the low clouds mixing out and dissipating, although forecasted 950 mb RH still muddled when comparing the GEM/GFS/NAM. Assuming the low clouds clear out, there should be an increase in high clouds as the elongated upper level low currently over the Four Corners Region advances northeast into the Central Plains.
333 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will push east across the region today, and will be accompanied by a few brief rain showers.
Upper ridge currently over Montana will move to the east today. Although shallow inversion remains, warm air advection has allow temperatures to stay warmer overnight than previous nights which will allow for warmer temperatures today. Upper flow begins to turn southwest this afternoon as upper trough begins to dig in towards the California coast. The trough moves inland Thursday and Thursday Night turn the flow aloft more southerly. A cold front moves through the area Thursday Night with limited moisture.
111 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will cross the coastal waters this morning. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
Split flow was converging over Missouri today as a closed off upper low was lurking over the desert southwest. On Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low axis will be moving directly over southern Missouri. The upper low begins to shear out and drifts to the north in time, allowing warm southerly breezes to persist.
310 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level low keeps clouds in place today.
418 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 The weather story across North Central Texas this week will be driven by the breakdown of the large ridge over the central and western U.
426 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weak and slow moving cold front will pass through the area later today, bringing the risk for more showers and storms. A weak cold front will try and cross the region late today, before losing most of its structure as the evening approaches.
The concomitant synoptic cold front lies from northern Missouri across central into southwest KS. Temps will remain in the low to mid 90s Tues/Wed.
349 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Broad upper level low/trough over the eastern Gulf will push west and northwest into the western Gulf through tonight. Storms will diminish in the evening with loss of daytime heating, and temperatures overnight will be in the low to mid 70s by Tuesday morning.
Northeast Montana begins the day under the boundary of a hot desert air-mass to the south and cooler trough air to the north.
357 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Upper level trough was over the western Great Lakes. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over northern ALTA/SASK with an east-west jet streak on the south side of upper low. Trough will move across northern MAN this afternoon. Upper trough will send a cold front into the northern REd River Valley by Tue afternoon. Low level ridging moves out of SASK and into the area Tue night and should push precip south and east of the area for Wed. However a weak low pressure system will move across SD Wed and may produce rain in the far southern Valley Wed.
348 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 The departing short wave trof will result in large scale subsidence across the entire region today, with high pressure in control at the surface. The ridge axis will move off to the south tonight and Tuesday, allowing low level westerly flow to develop in the 925-850 mb layer. This will once again result in an increasing warm/moist advection pattern by 06z tonight, and sufficient moisture/instability/lift should be present by the midnight to 3 am time frame to result in showers and thunderstorms slowly developing along the nose of the 925-850 mb thermal ridge that will slowly build into northwest Minnesota tonight on the northwest periphery of the departing risge axis.
Temperatures were in the lower 80s with light and variable winds over land and 5 to 10 knots from the southeast across the available marine stations. The high pressure will shift westward today, the ridge will deepens over the local area, and remain across the Florida Peninsula through most of the work week.
500 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Rather muggy start with a little fog East and calm or light SE everywhere ranging in the low to mid 70s with 90plus percent on the RH. The water vapor shows the upper ridge over Texas and a nice pile of tropical 2plus inch pwat overhead and extending off shore in the Gulf. The associated upper low is over the West coast of FL and moving NW and will bring back in an inverted trough keeping some decent pops going this week and mainly in the afternoon heating. The Easterlies will hand around for a good while this week and the higher than average chance for rain should keep the high heat in check compared to lately anyway.
The mid-level low will continue to drift southwest over the region for the next couple of days as it slowly rotates around a broad upper ridge. As a result, temperatures should only reach the lower 90s, which will keep heat index values below advisory criteria. By Tuesday, another upper low, currently over Florida, will move west along the Gulf Coast and eventually across the southern half of the CWA.
148 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
204 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Aviation A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. High pressure will build in and produce fair and continued very warm weather Monday through Tuesday. Scattered showers will linger mid to late this afternoon and a few thunderstorms should redevelop late this afternoon and evening along and out ahead of the approaching cold front. Convection will develop there on outflow boundaries from the MCS earlier today and also along and just ahead of the cold front. Fair weather will return Monday through Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind the departing system.
Decent low and mid level theta-e ridge axis sets up in this area with early afternoon surface based CAPES from 1000 to 2000 J/kg and bulk shear from 35 to 45 knots with isolated thunderstorms already appearing on the radar shortly after noon. Low level convergence axis sets up in the afternoon across southeast Wyoming but it will be difficult for thunderstorm initiation with less low level moisture and warmer temperatures aloft acting as a capping inversion. This afternoon/s model guidance progs the upper high pressure center to retrograde west across the Four Corners and Great Basin early this week.
Deepening trough along west coast will turn the flow a little more southerly across the CWA today into Tuesday.
Moisture will be on the climb today through Tuesday as a upper level low/inverted trough moves west across the northern gulf. Better chances head into tonight into Tuesday as the upper low approaches the Texas coast.
356 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
/Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater moisture under the ridge. The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday.
152 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. Low-level pooling of 70-75F sfc dewpoints across the Lower Susq Valley, combined with numerous outflow boundaries from earlier convection and the approach a a weak upper level disturbance, will lead to a likelihood of showers in many locations over the next several hour across the region along, and to the SE of Interstate 81.
629 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead.
The upper high will initially be centered near the four corners region today.
305 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 259 AM CDT A cold front bisects the county warning area along a southwest to northeast axis. There are also a few showers in southern Wisconsin associated with an upper low across west central Ontario. The leading edge of the cold front will move southeast of the area later this morning, taking the last of the lingering showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind the front we will welcome in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass, along with at least a few day period of dry weather. âComfortableâ dewpoints in the 60s will make more seasonably warm but certainly more tolerable conditions for mid-summer, as highs top out in the mid to upper 80s, or just a tad above normal, though a bit cooler at the lake with a lake breeze expected.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend into the coming week with temperatures approaching the triple digits across the interior. The ridge of high pressure continues to build over the area and is expected to persist through late in the week. Late in the week coastal clouds will likely increase again as the ridge starts to shift east.
Overall expect plenty of sunshine and warmer air to overspread western and central ND. It is best reflected in the 700mb height fields and in the 850mb isotherms, with a thermal trough/cooler pocket, along with a surface and boundary layer wind shift noted in the RAP13 and GFS. This low level convergence area along with increasing moisture advection per 850mb southerly winds will spawn increasing chances for shower/thunderstorm development across portions of southern ND tonight.
120 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 a cold front will move slowly south and east across the Great Lakes region late tonight and during the day Monday.
303 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated high pressure ridging with centers located over the desert Southwest and near the Carolinas is being disrupted by general inverted troughing over the northern Gulf Coast states. An upper level low pressure system off the west coast of Florida will move across the Gulf today.
The upper trough discussed previously will shift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 to 48 hrs, and it is expected to move fast enough to remain cold core in nature with very little surface reflection noted in near term guidance.
537 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Convection will continue to percolate today invof a slow-moving cold front. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler tdy compared to ydy across most of the CWA except for the far southern CWA and eastern Ozarks. A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this week, which will act as a focus for pcpn.
421 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today.
Latest moisture channel imagery showing a mid level trough moving through the northern plains at this time. System is suppressing the ridge and moving its axis to the west with a lowering of heights and cooler temperatures. A weak impulse in the upper flow is moving along the periphery of the upper high and helping to ignite this afternoons convection. Attention will then turn to a cold front approaching from the north. Forecast for both Monday and Tuesday will be muddled with the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area and the area in between upper level highs to the west and to the east.
214 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Hot and dry conditions with mainly light late day breezes are expected for the next several days as strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
Strong upper ridging in place over the the southern Rockies and Desert Southwest, along with a weak upper low forming over Florida continued a general northerly upper flow pattern over the region.
A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) lies over the southeast Florida coastline with a broad mid and upper level ridge covering most of the southern CONUS. The mid and upper level ridge, which has been in place for a few days now, has worked some dry air into the mid levels as can be seen in our KTAE soundings yesterday and today. Mid-level and upper level dry air will be pulled westward into the region along the northern periphery of the low which will supress convection across the eastern half of the forecast area during the day tomorrow. Afternoon highs will generally run in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to 100F.
526 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Update A high pressure system centered in Iowa will build slowly east today and into Michigan on Tuesday.
446 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Convection will continue to percolate today invof a slow-moving cold front. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler tdy compared to ydy across most of the CWA except for the far southern CWA and eastern Ozarks. A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this week, which will act as a focus for pcpn.