Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level ridge over New Mexico and West Texas will break down today as a trough moves into the western United States. The trough will tap into eastern Pacific moisture and combined with afternoon heating will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to form in southeastern New Mexico and areas of Texas west of the Pecos River, especially in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where orographic lift will also aid in storm development. Tonight will be mild before the trough arrives over the CWA on Wednesday. Increasing lift associated with the trough should increase storm coverage and spread it farther east into the western Permian Basin. The increase in clouds on Wednesday may shave a couple of degrees off the high temperature as readings struggle to reach 90 degrees.
243 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 High pressure arrives today to provide dry weather through the remainder of this week. A cold front has pushed east of the forecast area early this morning, and lower dewpoints in the 50s have made it as far east as the New River Valley. With a calm wind tonight and generally clear skies though some upstream clouds with 5h trough could impact Southeast WV, lows will be in the 50s for most with some 40s in the deeper valleys. Still expecting high pressure to settle over the area for Wednesday as most of the area remains in the 70s with ample sun and lower humidity.
115 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Today and tonight: Heights will rise across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a deep closed upper low centered over far northern Ohio quickly lifts northeast. In its wake, upper ridging over the Southern Plains will also shift east.
At 300 AM, satellite imagery showed a bowling ball of a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Kay in the Desert Southwest. An upper level ridge sandwiched in between the two systems was producing a swath of clear skies from Texas to Nebraska. The Outlook for Today: Upper level ridging will maintain itself over region today, producing mid and upper level subsidence that will keep our skies clear. Breezier with Rain Chances Developing Late in the Week: The axis of the upper level ridge will drift towards the Great Lakes during this period as a rather messy trough solidifies its hold over the Rockies. The trough should help the remnants of, and moisture from, former Tropical Cyclone Kay lift northward towards the High Plains.
408 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The cold front is currently located across central Georgia and will advance southeastward out the CWA later this morning. While the cut off low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region begins to shift northward throughout the day, northwest flow will funnel cooler and drier air over the forecast area today. Max temperatures trend a little warmer on Wednesday with max high temperatures from the low 80s to upper 80s.
The thick smoke will likely affect temps today with slightly cooler numbers preferred. Semi-active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture will then begin to push into the region Wed, with a lee side trough being kicked onto the plains per the first in a series of impulses. Semi-active SW flow will then persist for the remainder of the week, supporting daily rain chances, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps. A semi-active pattern will then set up for the last half of the week into the weekend, with daily sct-isold showers and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures.
/Issued 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/ /Through Wednesday/ An upper low currently spiraling over the southern Great Lakes will continue to move east and away from the region, while an upper ridge over the Rockies spreads east into the Plains in its wake. The ridge will maintain the streak of mostly sunny days along with clear and pleasant nights across the region through at least midweek. At the surface, a ridge centered over the Mississippi Valley will keep our winds out of the southeast with speeds around 10 MPH.
Broad low pressure sits over the northeast Pacific through the next few days. Onshore flow will persist bringing marine stratus and cooler conditions through the week. This low is nearly stationary and brought some scattered showers through the morning. With the low slowly shifting inland the impacts will be minimal and sensible weather wise will likely just see fall-like weather with onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and possible drizzle.
412 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 An upper level low will continue to cause considerable cloudiness and below normal temperatures today. The low will move away from the region on Wednesday, allowing warmer temperatures and sunshine to return through the end of the week and into the weekend. An upper level low and energy rotating around the low will continue to keep mostly cloudy skies over most of the region this morning. Latest models continue to support mixing out the lower cloud cover this afternoon, particularly south of Interstate 70. For Wednesday, mid-level ridging will cause decreasing clouds and much warmer temperatures by afternoon. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
253 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Latest surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley with a ridge extending northward through Missouri and Iowa early this morning. In the upper levels, water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over the Rockies. Highs today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the low level thermal profiles continue to warm up. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer still with 80s across the entire CWA.
305 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 The deep upper low now churning over the metro Toledo region will become more progressive today as inbound height falls across far northern Ontario help drive this system toward upstate New York by evening. This deformation region is forecast to pivot across wrn Lower Mi during the first half of the day before dramatically weakening as it advances into Se MI this afternoon, courtesy of significant large scale height rises in the wake of the upper low. A cold front will be driven across the forecast area on Wednesday, associated with aforementioned height falls across northern ontario.
1106 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Upper level ridging will shift eastward into the Central Plains leading to the return of above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday with highs in the low 90s.
Near normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week in wake of a cold front. -RCG 1125 PM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (13/06Z TAF period) Mid- and high level clouds have increased over the northern Rockies as a more moist southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. /ISSUED 137 PM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022/ Upper level ridging begins to weaken and move east as an upper level trough develops to our Pacific Northwest, bringing multiple weather disturbances beginning tonight.
The upper level ridge will nearly be centered over the High Plains. Did trend with the warmer bias models of the MET and 90th percentile as confidence grows in warmer temperatures for Tuesday. Confidence is moderate that sustained winds won't exceed much past 10 mph throughout the day, supported by bufkit soundings where much of the winds in the lowest levels are below 10 kts. A trof begins to move eastward into the High Plains Wednesday night bringing the next chance for precipitation.
Low pressure is expected to develop over Wyoming in response to a weak northern Rockies upper trough. Thus, with about a 30mph wind, a plume of warmer mid level air coming up from the south/southwest, and little change in humidity, anticipate an increase in the fire danger for Wednesday afternoon. Also though the day we will see increasing mid level moisture associated with a monsoon plume pulled up into the northern plains by the aforementioned upper level trough. The main concern is with inverted V type soundings with bases near the freezing level. Coupled with upper-level support associated with a trough, showers and storms will develop across the region.
Ridge continues to build across the Rockies and starts sliding east.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected for this afternoon and early evening, most likely over the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, the high desert, and portions of the Inland Empire.
621 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will build east out into the Plains today. This along with veered low level flow will bring low level thermal ridge east with it resulting in warmer temperatures for today. Meanwhile developing western trough will also result in pressure falls across the high Plains and strengthening pressure gradient and increase in south winds. This will aid in warmer nighttime temperatures as well Tuesday night.
603 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today) A much needed break in the rainfall continues to evolve over much of the region this early Tue morning, as high pressure out of the middle/southern Plains gradually builds to the east. An upper low/trough axis centered over the Great Lakes also continues to lift ENE closer to the middle/northern Atlantic states. Near seasonal temps are expected to climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies.
Upper level low pressure, currently located over the western end of Lake Erie, will track off to the northeast today. High pressure will provide a nice day Wednesday with plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions.
High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida while a weak frontal boundary remains stretched across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The front stalls over Florida by Wednesday with high pressure building into the southeast U.
453 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level ridge over New Mexico and West Texas will break down today as a trough moves into the western United States. The trough will tap into eastern Pacific moisture and combined with afternoon heating will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to form in southeastern New Mexico and areas of Texas west of the Pecos River, especially in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where orographic lift will also aid in storm development. Tonight will be mild before the trough arrives over the CWA on Wednesday. Increasing lift associated with the trough should increase storm coverage and spread it farther east into the western Permian Basin. The increase in clouds on Wednesday may shave a couple of degrees off the high temperature as readings struggle to reach 90 degrees.
(Today through Wednesday) The cold front is currently located across central Georgia and will advance southeastward out the CWA later this morning. While the cut off low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region begins to shift northward throughout the day, northwest flow will funnel cooler and drier air over the forecast area today. Max temperatures trend a little warmer on Wednesday with max high temperatures from the low 80s to upper 80s.
Wednesday looks to be even warmer with an upper-level ridge axis passing over the Upper Midwest and stronger southerly flow developing at the surface.
An upper level low pressure system will bring cooler and cloudier conditions to Western Washington today along with a chance of mainly mountain showers. The low will shift eastward on Wednesday, but a broad trough over the region combined with onshore flow will maintain night and morning clouds and cool temperatures. A deeper trough over the weekend will cool temperatures further and produce a better chance of showers.
547 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Upper level low pressure spinning near Toledo Ohio will drift to the east today and bring periods of clouds along with a few late morning and afternoon showers, mainly across the Northern and Western Mountains of the state.
Mean layer ridging centered over the western North Atlantic has shifted slightly to the southeast (height falls on the 12Z FL RAOBs), although its upper level is dimpled with a TUTT cell sliding southwest through the Bahamas. Water vapor imagery highlights a broad trough complex over the Mississippi River Valley, east of high amplitude ridging over the Rockies. The low level gradient is diffuse across South Florida and the Keys. Weak ridging nearby and an approaching broad trough will result in light and varying breezes becoming east to southeast tonight and tomorrow. Towards the end of the week, continental ridging will expand southeastward through the eastern United States, resulting in moderate easterly breezes by this weekend.
Meanwhile, frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly sags over the Southeast. This combined with high pressure southeast of the area will keep southwesterly flow in place today before shifting east to northeast on Wednesday. There would be ample moisture to work with in addition to temperatures aloft forecasted to be a degree or two cooler. Overnight lows stay in the low to mid 70s. THe aforementioned front sort of stalls while falling apart, as upper level ridge builds from the west. High pressure southeast of the Peninsula combined with the frontal boundary across north Florida will keep southwesterly flow across the area. Interaction between high pressure and frontal boundary will keep southwesterly flow across the Peninsula with showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day.
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 An upper level low will continue to cause considerable cloudiness and below normal temperatures today. The low will move away from the region on Wednesday, allowing warmer temperatures and sunshine to return through the end of the week and into the weekend. An upper level low and energy rotating around the low will continue to keep mostly cloudy skies over most of the region this morning. Latest models continue to support mixing out the lower cloud cover this afternoon, particularly south of Interstate 70. For Wednesday, mid-level ridging will cause decreasing clouds and much warmer temperatures by afternoon. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
1039 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 An upper level low will keep the region mostly cloudy to cloudy and continue below normal temperatures today. The low will move away from the region on Wednesday, allowing warmer temperatures and sunshine to return through the end of the week and into the weekend. With the upper low positioned over western Lake Erie and plenty of low clouds/drizzle and even some fog rotating through Indiana at this time, the updated forecast is even more pessimistic for clouds and high temperatures for this afternoon. For Wednesday, mid-level ridging will cause decreasing clouds and much warmer temperatures by afternoon. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
715 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday) This AM at the surface, ridging is taking hold over the Deep South behind our first front of the season to bring a tiny taste of fall/ cooler air into the area (at least for the night time temps. This ridge will remain in control for the duration of the short term with sunny weather expected. In the upper levels, NW flow will be present into AL now into early Wed as the upper low moves from OH NEWD into ME. The upper ridge will shift from the Rockies and build over Central Conus through the short term.
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Today and tonight: Heights will rise across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a deep closed upper low centered over far northern Ohio quickly lifts northeast. In its wake, upper ridging over the Southern Plains will also shift east.
603 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Latest surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley with a ridge extending northward through Missouri and Iowa early this morning. In the upper levels, water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over the Rockies. Highs today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the low level thermal profiles continue to warm up. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer still with 80s across the entire CWA.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Sfc ridging over the area will gradually shift eastward through the period which will provide a transition to E/SE flow. Aloft, H500 ridging across the Rockies will expand eastward in the wake of the cyclone lifting northeast across the southern Great Lakes. As this ridge builds over the area, temperatures (especially daytime highs) will begin to increase to above normal values.
528 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today) Upper ridge will begin expanding over the plains today as eastern U. upper low continues moving east. Broad sfc ridging centered to our east will result in light south winds, but also continue to favor low dew points this afternoon. Temps should be at least a few degrees warmer.
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 High pressure arrives today to provide dry weather through the remainder of this week. A cold front has pushed east of the forecast area early this morning, and lower dewpoints in the 50s have made it as far east as the New River Valley. With a calm wind tonight and generally clear skies though some upstream clouds with 5h trough could impact Southeast WV, lows will be in the 50s for most with some 40s in the deeper valleys. Still expecting high pressure to settle over the area for Wednesday as most of the area remains in the 70s with ample sun and lower humidity.
At the upper levels a weak trof will move into the state and hgts will fall to 580 dam. The weak troffing aloft and increased onshore flow will create widespread stratus across coasts and lower vlys Wednesday morning.
Thankfully this week is very different with a much cooler pattern in place over the west coast as broad troughing gradually deepens over the next several days. Dense fog this morning is an issue along the Humboldt and Del Norte coastline, but as the trough deepens the threat of dense fog should decrease as the marine layer also deepens.
Surface pressure gradients continue to trend toward stronger onshore as high pressure shifts east resulting in significant cooling. Current temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 60s to lower 70s across the Central Valley. Cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the week as troughing over the eastern Pacific moves over NorCal. Breezy winds are possible today and Wednesday through the Delta and over ridges.
424 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Issued 417 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022) Today through Wednesday Night: The occluding low pressure system that drove our weather for the past few days will continue to exit east this morning. High pressure should then keep things pleasant into Wednesday with high temps in the low 70s again, and passing high clouds. Something to keep an eye on is plummeting temps later in the day as a weak cold front comes down the lake.
We remain under the upper level ridge axis through today and Wednesday, with clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. Wednesday night, the ridge will move off to the east and a low pressure system will stall over South Dakota. The low's associated warm front will then stall out over northeastern Minnesota. 5 inches combined with a nearly stationary warm front will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across the majority of the CWA.
COOLEST MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN 3 MONTHS EXPECTED (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly push through the area today with a drier airmass behind it. Low temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the northwest half of the area, with mid 60s to near 70 across the southeast half.
520 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Upper ridging will slide eastward over the Plains today with the corresponding low level thickness rises/warming resulting in the return of a more intense heat with highs above 90F across central and southern Kansas. On Wednesday, remnant tropical moisture originating from the baja region will advect northward into the upper trof lifting northeastward across the Rockies. While the low levels will remain relatively dry, increasing mid and high level moisture/clouds may begin to impact western portions of the area late in the day.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, courtesy of closed 500 mb low pressure moving over the Great Lakes area, will prevail during a majority of the forecast period before being replaced by weak inverted troughiness for the final 12 hours. However, a burst of generally scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Wednesday as the inverted mid-level trough combines with deepening tropical moisture.
715 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Upper level low pressure spinning near Toledo Ohio will drift to the east today and bring periods of clouds along with a few late morning and afternoon showers, mainly across the Northern and Western Mountains of the state.
(Today through Wednesday) A deep closed upper level low is centered near IN/OH with the base of the trough near the northern Gulf of Mexico and the apex now east of the CWA. Looking at surface obs over LA and MS, its quite easy to discern the cold front's location. As the evening and overnight period progresses, high pressure will continue to build in form the north and usher in post frontal dry/cool airmass. The upper trough will be racing east by mid- week and ridge following right in its footsteps.
353 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Moisture from the remnants of Kay will move into the higher terrain this aftn. The lower levels are fairly dry so any activity that does develop will likely be higher based. For tonight will continue to see a chc of showers and a few storms over the higher terrain this evening. It is possible for these storms to become more scattered to isolated once moving off the higher terrain.
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Sfc ridging over the area will gradually shift eastward through the period which will provide a transition to E/SE flow. Aloft, H500 ridging across the Rockies will expand eastward in the wake of the cyclone lifting northeast across the southern Great Lakes. As this ridge builds over the area, temperatures (especially daytime highs) will begin to increase to above normal values.
557 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Cool high pressure will drop into the northern plains today with a tightening pressure gradient as lee trof develops. With an upper trof digging along the west coast, moisture will be increasing across the region and some showers are possible across the northern zones. As the upper trof continues to develop across the west through the week, temperatures will remain near normal and occasional showers are possible.
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Expect warm and dry weather today across the area due to an upper level ridge. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight 65 to 70.
Highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the low to mid 100s.
An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out, but POPs will be kept below 10 percent due to expected dominance of the approaching upper ridge. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ An upper low currently spiraling over the southern Great Lakes will continue to move east and away from the region, while an upper ridge over the Rockies spreads east into the Plains in its wake. The ridge will maintain the streak of mostly sunny days along with clear and pleasant nights across the region through at least midweek. At the surface, a ridge centered over the Mississippi Valley will keep our winds out of the southeast with speeds around 10 MPH.
Broad low pressure moving inland over Washington and Oregon for the next few days. Upper low near WA coast this morning with the trough axis off the Oregon coast. Some drizzle can be expected over the coast range this morning as the upper trough moves inland.