Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
But now the idea is that an uptick in the low-level jet (from the wsw to w) will eventually help maintain activity (and perhaps even allow for a touch of backbuilding) as it crosses parts of northern lower and eastern upper MI thru circa 4 am. The lowest visibility will generally be in areas along and west of I-75, with a few locations likely restricted to less than 1 mile. Cooler and Less Humid. An upper level trough settles in over the region through the period.
255 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Strong U/L ridge of high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic coast will hold across the Florida peninsula today.
136 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Warm and muggy conditions with scattered storms continue through the evening under the western periphery of subtropical high pressure centered off the United States east coast.
330 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach the area late this week. Little change in the weather pattern surface and aloft through tonight with high pressure in control. The flow will be out of the southwest today and this should result in slightly warmer high temps in the low 90s inland. Lows will be warm, in the low to mid 70s. High pressure shifts farther out over the Atlantic as a deep upper level trough digs south from the Great Lakes driving a cold front toward the East Coast.
Cooler weather is expected over the weekend. Today will see greater shower and thunderstorm coverage with falling heights ahead of an approaching upper trough.
356 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 With the aid of some mid level ridging to our ne/n and slightly lower PW's, temps should be a bit higher and precip coverage a touch lower than we've seen the past couple days. With mid level ridging situated across cntl Tx and being on the subsident side of an inverted trof stretching across the cntl Gulf, this time period will likely be the driest part of the week for most locations (though still expect some sct seabreeze activity generally south of I-10/US59 on Thurs).
Onshore flow will bring cooler but still above normal temperatures to the region through the Fourth of July holiday.
1214 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered off of the Mid Atlantic coast through the middle of this week.
1211 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail before a cold front approaches the region late week.
1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 IFR stratus has already built into AUS as of this TAF package and expect the lower ceilings to work into SAT/SSF over the next 2-3 hours. Tomorrow, moisture and elevated PWATs are still in place, but a strengthening upper ridge should help suppress some shower activity leaving the better chances during peak heating during the day and more coverage along and near the Coastal Plains. With the strengthening of the upper ridge, temperatures should be able to climb closer, but still just below normal tomorrow.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 71 88 71 81 / 20 20 70 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 71 87 69 79 / 20 20 80 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 86 69 79 / 20 20 80 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 85 67 76 / 20 20 80 90 80.
A stagnating trough continues to dominate the weather in the Midwest as scattered showers dot the CWA this morning. Overnight, dewpoints remained in the low 70s with overcast skies, resulting in another muggy start to the day.
The main upper trough over Canada will shift southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight through tomorrow which will shunt the the remnant boundary and attendant anomalous PWs south of the area by tomorrow afternoon.
214 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 594 decameter upper high over southwest Canada will migrate slowly to the east over the next couple days, and weaken slightly. Despite some weak energy in the flow aloft, the suppressive upper high and relatively dry troposphere should keep conditions dry, and hot.
246 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure continues over ID/MT and a low has formed over Utah, with Wyoming in between the two. A majority of the state will be in the drier, warmer pattern of the high, while the low will push into portions of southwestern Wyoming.
However, the amount of shower/storms today should be less than previous days due to some increase in subsidence resulting from the core of the 500 mb ridge encroaching on our region from the east. With 850 mb temperatures warming by a couple degrees compared to yesterday, and plenty of breaks in the clouds today, expect warmer highs today in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tonight, dry weather is expected by mid evening, as the core of the upper ridge builds and moves directly overhead.
307 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 An upper level system that will help amplify troughing over the eastern CONUS was heading SSE over northern Ontario. It over the next couple of days will form into an upper low somewhere over the Great Lakes, with unseasonably deep troughing setting up over the eastern lower-48. Lower heights courtesy of the trough will continue a cooler trend as we head through the latter half of the week. Will stay on lower end of scattered regarding convection chances, with the higher PoPs more to our west. With more sun than clouds, today should generally be warmer than it was yesterday with highs around 90. The above mentioned trough will continue amplifying as low pressure forms over the Ontario/Quebec border and heads towards the Great Lakes.
With the upper ridge gradually retrograding today, expect increasing afternoon chances of showers and a few storms primarily for northeast OK/northwest AR.
357 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Upper ridging remains in place over the southeastern CONUS as remnants of what was TS Danny slowly move west across the region.
1046 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Quiet weather across the area for the next several days as weak flow aloft settles into the area from the west and a trough digs into the northeast. Overall this will keep high pressure at the surface nearby into the early part of the weekend which means lighter winds and lower than normal humidity for this time of year. Light northerly or easterly flow will be in place on Wednesday with low level temperatures just a bit warmer than today. This should allow for highs from the mid 80s in southwest MN to the lower 90s along and west of the James River.
The upper trough will slowly drop heights aloft today and diurnal help will kick off late morning and afternoon convection, possibly continuing into the evening for some, especially along and north of I-40.
121 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
Since instability will be low today with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points around 60, the potential for strong or severe storm development is low.
Subtropical high pressure continues to be parked from the mid Atlantic into the Deep South early this morning. The upper trough that has been parked across the central Plains into the upper Midwest the past few days has finally gotten knocked loose. The central Plains trough has diminished while the trough over the upper Midwest is getting kicked south and east.
323 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Wednesday: As upper level ridging shifts east today, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms activity to linger through the day.
Northwest flow aloft persists as upper trough finally elongates and moves east of the area. The forecast area is on the eastern periphery of the robust upper ridge that has contributed to record high temperatures across the Pacific NW. As the upper ridge continues to nose into the Northern Plains and flow turns more westerly/southwesterly temperatures will continue to rise into the weekend.
230 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Temperatures remain cooler than average with isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms expected each day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. The blocking high aloft over southwest Canada and northwest U.
1245 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail before a cold front approaches the region late week.
Not sure this will happen as weak upper level ridging develops over North Texas. 10 inches so subsidence from the ridge will be fighting low level moisture and daytime heating. A mid-level ridge that is progged to build in from the NE could help to limit POPs a bit by tomorrow (afternoon). But did opt to err on the side of wet until more evidence of this high is available. And so based on the higher POPs/clouds, did keep max temperatures tomorrow near 90.
This is occurring as the region is sandwiched between two upper level high pressures (one to the south and another to the west), with a digging trough off to the east. After daybreak, the resulting high pressure will keep calm conditions continuing throughout the day, with another diurnally driven cumulus field developing by the early afternoon hours. Once mixing ceases near sunset, the cu field should diminish rather quickly and another quiet evening is expected with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Surface analysis depicts a large subtropical high pressure area centered over the western Atlantic and extending westward into the Carolinas, with the Keys lying in a gradually weakening pressure gradient along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level low located over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge far to the north over the Mid Atlantic region. For today, the mid/upper low over the northern Gulf combined with copious available moisture in ESE low level flow will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers with some embedded storms.
In the upper levels, the dome of high pressure responsible for all-time record-setting heat in the Pacific Northwest will shift from the Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces while a deepening trough lowers from Hudson Bay into eastern Ontario. Flow over the central CONUS is quasi-zonal, with a cut-off low spinning near the Great Salt Lake.
Thursday looks to be pretty similar, with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 80s and another chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Models continue to agree that the deep trough over the Great Lakes will deepen into the southeast.
Another record breaking hot day is in store for the Northern Rockies today as the ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature. The ridge of high pressure moves off to the east on Thursday, but warm temperatures will remain over the region. Once the low levels moisten up, then these storms will be capable of moderate to heavy rainfall.
734 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Made some minor updates to this morning's low temperatures and max relative humidity mainly over the parts of Northcentral MT that remained slightly warmer and had slightly better relative humidity recovery overnight.
Thursday The southwest edge of a deep upper trough will glance eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois as the main upper low rolls across the eastern Great Lakes. North to northeast winds are expected to develop across the area with high pressure following on the heels of the trough. Dewpoints are still in the low/mid 60s during the day, not falling into the 50s until Thursday night.
/issued 428 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/ Upper level high pressure will continue to slowly drift towards the forecast area today ending up just to our east by this evening. Afternoon temperatures should be warmer today as heights aloft begin to increase and with less widespread cloud/shower coverage as opposed to yesterday with temperatures reaching the 80's in most spots. This high will help keep the area moistly dry for the day Thursday. Increased thicknesses from the building high will also lead to high temperatures of mid to upper-80s for much of the region, with some areas over the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandles rising into the low-90s. An upper trough will deepen into the Plains from the Great Lakes Region Thursday.
The upper trough will slowly drop heights aloft today and diurnal help will kick off late morning and afternoon convection, possibly continuing into the evening for some, especially along and north of I-40. Getting into the day Thursday, the trough and cold front will impact the mid state even more as the front will be in the OH River Valley by the afternoon. The GFS has lined up with the ECMWF and in fact has slightly moved the upper low further east, so timing looks pretty good for rain to move in from the north Thursday morning and continue during the day. Strong to severe storms will again be possible with instability still in place and shear picking up slightly being closer to the front and the upper trough dipping southward towards the region.
Subtropical high pressure continues to be parked from the mid Atlantic into the Deep South early this morning. The upper trough that has been parked across the central Plains into the upper Midwest the past few days has finally gotten knocked loose. The central Plains trough has diminished while the trough over the upper Midwest is getting kicked south and east. As we move toward the holiday weekend, the aforementioned upper trough over the Midwest continues to deepen over the country east of the Mississippi River. Farther west, a broad area of high pressure will cover much of the Rockies with increasing westerly flow along and north of the Canadian border.
Weaker mid level ridge was centered over the Red River valley this morning. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will be on the northern periphery of the ridge across NE OK this afternoon and tonight. With the upper ridge gradually retrograding today, expect increasing afternoon chances of showers and a few storms primarily for northeast OK/northwest AR.
/issued 255 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021/ Strong U/L ridge of high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic coast will hold across the Florida peninsula today. Pattern change upcoming as an U/L trough will dig over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley tonight/Thursday.
Convection coverage will diminish late today and overnight as a mid to upper level ridge begins to build into the area. The ridge will continue to build over the area Thursday, with resulting subsidence slowly dropping the chances for convection.
617 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach the area late this week. Little change in the weather pattern surface and aloft through tonight with high pressure in control. The flow will be out of the southwest today and this should result in slightly warmer high temps in the low 90s inland. Lows will be warm, in the low to mid 70s. High pressure shifts farther out over the Atlantic as a deep upper level trough digs south from the Great Lakes driving a cold front toward the East Coast.
Some of the diurnal convection will dissipate by late evening, but nocturnal showers/storms are expected late tonight as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region sending a cold front southward into our area late tonight. The highest pops and QPF will shift into southeast MO and southwest IL Thursday along and ahead of this cold front as it drops southward through our area. Much cooler high temperatures can be expected in this area Thursday afternoon, mainly due to the cloud cover and precipitation.
642 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper high pressure will build westward into northern Texas through sunrise Thursday.
As has been the case for the past few nights, mild temperatures will continue to prevail overnight, with lows ranging from the lower to mid 70s across the region. By Thursday morning, upper-air pattern will feature a ridge across the central CONUS, with troughing across the northwest CONUS.
After the frontal passage, "cooler" temperatures will arrive for Thursday before a warm up into the 90s for the weekend.
The right entrance region of a 65kt jet at 300mb will move across northeast Wisconsin this afternoon and evening while a cold front drops south from the Upper Peninsula. Northeast winds will bring in cooler and drier air Thursday as high pressure moves south from Hudson's Bay.
1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop today and continue through Thursday as a cold front travels from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
428 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Upper level high pressure will continue to slowly drift towards the forecast area today ending up just to our east by this evening. Afternoon temperatures should be warmer today as heights aloft begin to increase and with less widespread cloud/shower coverage as opposed to yesterday with temperatures reaching the 80's in most spots. This high will help keep the area moistly dry for the day Thursday. Increased thicknesses from the building high will also lead to high temperatures of mid to upper-80s for much of the region, with some areas over the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandles rising into the low-90s. An upper trough will deepen into the Plains from the Great Lakes Region Thursday.
We may see a brief relative lull in thunderstorm activity after sunset this evening, but then renewed development is expected overnight as an upper trof approaches from the north and low level winds aloft freshen slightly ahead of an 850mb front just north of the Ohio River.
1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through today.
Flat upper ridging will begin to break down today as a longwave northern stream trough drops into the Great Lakes region. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Upper ridging remains in place over the southeastern CONUS as remnants of what was TS Danny slowly move west across the region. Hot temperatures will prevail on Thursday thanks to subtropical ridging sticking around. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s and highs will climb into the lower 90s for most areas within the CWA.
Showers and storms should dissipate across the interior within an hour after sunset, but the low-level onshore flow will keep shower/storm chances along the coast this evening and tonight.
Think the lower ceilings will continue for the next 3 hours or so, and there may be some fluctuations in category during that time. Morning Water Vapor Images from GOES-16 show upper level lows to the west of the area across Mexico and another spinning to the southeast of New Orleans across the Gulf Coast.
For today, the Tri-State area remains under southwest flow aloft with an upper low over western Utah, high pressure over Texas and an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Moisture is being pulled into area from the Pacific due to return flow around the high to the south. For the end of the week an upper level short wave trough may move across the Plains as the closed low over the East Coast moves off shore. Current data shows this short wave trough moving very slowly along the periphery of the ridge. It may transition to a closed low and slide south.
Afternoon highs will be in 90s across the lower elevations today.
658 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop today and continue through Thursday as a cold front travels from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
405 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Current surface analysis depicts high pressure building across the eastern portion of the CONUS, extending from the Midwest through the eastern seaboard, as low pressure pushes eastward across the Pacific Northwest.
Thereafter expect widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with high temperatures generally a few degrees cooler than average. The mid- level inverted trough extending north from Mexico is currently over the Cochise county area and this will shift slowly west today to about Santa Cruz county, a favorable area along and west of the axis. Given the above and the rapidly dissipating clouds, some confidence can be given to several of the CAM solutions that point toward convection developing over the higher terrain early this afternoon, including the Catalina/Rincon/Santa Rita ranges. PWs peak over the area Thursday with that mid-level weak trough lingering over the same area, just in a more of a SW-NE orientation. The combination of higher PWs, higher dewpoints and the influence of the upper trough should result in a fair amount of convection.
This moist airmass will continue to filter into our area throughout the day with high pressure located over the western Atlantic continuing to support moderate east to southeast flow through this afternoon.
516 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure continues over ID/MT and a low has formed over Utah, with Wyoming in between the two. A majority of the state will be in the drier, warmer pattern of the high, while the low will push into portions of southwestern Wyoming. Highs will be at least 5 degrees warmer on Wednesday and a few more on Thursday. Wednesday will be mainly dry and a little warmer.
After any fog that develops this morning thins, expect temperatures to gradually warm into the lower 80s. and holding down Max T's again in the lower 80s.
933 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic continues to keep a fairly moist airmass flowing into the SE US with southeast sfc winds and PWAT values around 2" through the lower OH River and MS River Valleys. The above mentioned trough will continue amplifying as low pressure forms over the Ontario/Quebec border and heads towards the Great Lakes. Lower heights, more clouds and a cold front approaching from the north will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly Thursday afternoon, with widespread showers and storms in the night. High temperatures should be a tad cooler Thu, rising into the mid/upper 80s.
Bermuda ridge continues to hold strong off of the east coast. An upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday bringing a strong cold front by July standards through those areas.
Upper ridging remains in place over the southeastern CONUS as remnants of what was TS Danny slowly move west across the region. Hot temperatures will prevail on Thursday thanks to subtropical ridging sticking around. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s and highs will climb into the lower 90s for most areas within the CWA.
Sparse activity expected today across the northern areas including AEX as high pressure aloft should suppress convection.
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Wednesday: As upper level ridging shifts east today, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms activity to linger through the day.
530 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Current surface analysis depicts high pressure building across the eastern portion of the CONUS, extending from the Midwest through the eastern seaboard, as low pressure pushes eastward across the Pacific Northwest.
Cooler temperatures and less humidity will make for much more comfortable weather.
The monstrosity of a high pressure system that brought record shattering heat the PacNW has weakened and is now inching its way eastward. To the south an upper level low is spinning over Utah. The upper low will likely kick off a few thunderstorm over the Sierra the next few days. Coastal areas will remain cooler and in the 60s to lower 70s. Onshore flow and a weak upper low off the coast will maintain the marine layer for the next few days. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Short story up front, the current weather pattern is going to hang around for the foreseeable future with thunderstorms starting late morning, becoming more wide spread across the high country through the afternoon and tapering off in the evening. Within this weak flow regime, water vapor imagery shows a Rex block pattern with the low over Utah and the high over Alberta/Saskatchewan, and an omega block pattern with a high over east Texas and the associated lows just south of Big Bend TX and New Orleans.
The monstrosity of a high pressure system that brought record shattering heat the PacNW has weakened and is now inching its way eastward. To the south an upper level low is spinning over Utah. The upper low will likely kick off a few thunderstorm over the Sierra the next few days. Coastal areas will remain cooler and in the 60s to lower 70s. Onshore flow and a weak upper low off the coast will maintain the marine layer for the next few days.