Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting 80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday weekend. Temperatures should get a little warmer than today but still below normal for late May. Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus early in the period.
301 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure will track northeast and away from the mid Atlantic coast tonight.
High pressure continues to be in control of the weather today centered across Iowa and drifting Southeast. Temperatures inland will be in the lower to middle 70s. however a thin cirrus shield will likely help to keep temps elevated overnight in the lower 50s to upper 40s across the forecast area. With dew points this afternoon falling into the lower to middle 40s and a few upper 30s. temperatures overnight may be able to quickly fall and could allow lows to be a few degrees cooler than currently forecasting. A high amplitude mid-level ridge extends North through Central Canada early Sunday and will drift east over the Western Great Lakes. Areas adjacent to Lake Michigan will likely be several degrees cooler with a light onshore flow in the afternoon. with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Upper low partially driving this over oregon will drift into southern alberta sunday. A cooler day is expected with highs in the 60s west to mid 70s east. The intense upper low drifts into southern sask sunday. It will be cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. The inherited long range forecast appears in fine working order depicting an upper trough across the region helping to maintain unsettled weather conditions. long range begins with a large ridge running from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes and up into Quebec. A large Trough runs from off the coast of California through western Montana and into northern Manitoba where it dips into a much cooler arctic core. A second synoptic trough/low is attempting to form over the Gulf of Alaska.
It seems that low pressure has found a home over the Great Basin.
Cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday with the most concentrated precipitation expected over the Idaho Panhandle. Large closed low over eastern Oregon is sending a couple waves into the region. JW 18Z TAFS: Another disturbance rotation around a large low pressure system over Oregon will move into SE Washington and N Idaho this afternoon and tonight bringing numerous showers. Some of the rain will wrap around the back side of the low into NE WA/N Idaho overnight into Sunday morning as the low tracks into NW Montana and Alberta. As the low tracks NE of the area Sunday morning pressure gradients increase, with breezy SW winds developing in some areas.
333 PM PDT SAT MAY 21 2016 UPDATE TO MENTION FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT Low pressure persisting over northern California will keep below average temperatures with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week.
Most of the forecast soundings still show evidence of ridging/subsidence for most of the night, but the eastward progression of the ridge may be enough for some activity late especially in the southeast Texas Panhandle where the WAA signal is maximized. Troughing to our west continues through mid-week before accelerating eastward toward the Panhandles by the end of the week.
515 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A cold front will move across the area this evening. Dry high pressure will build into the region behind the front through midweek. A cold front extended through the Carolina Mountains to central Georgia early this evening. Most of the high resolution mesoscale models show the convection across central GA skirting some of our GA counties in the CSRA, but generally remaining south of the Augusta area this evening. Omega block over the CONUS will begin to break down with upper low over the Northeastern states to Mid Atlantic/Carolina shifting off the eastern seaboard. Upper ridge in the midwest moving slowly east. Several short waves rotating around upper low may be trigger for convection.
Temperatures will become warmer by mid week. Low pressure area over the region will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the interior this afternoon and into the evening hours.
High pressure at the surface continues to hold across the area with a CU field quickly building this afternoon.
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Scattered showers will continue to diminish as the low pressure responsible for the showers and clouds pulles east of the area. High pressure will build in through the first part of the week, bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures. Slow clearing in the western part of the forecast area overnight, with the east still being influenced by the upper low and associated energy. The upper low becomes more broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high pressure works into the west. Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which extends up into the Great Lakes.
Surface wise, our region lies between a ridge of high pressure to our east and west, with a trough of low pressure draped across the central Florida with variable winds of less than 10 knots on our coastal waters.
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Upper ridge axis remains to the west today with lower cloud continuing to push east on a shallow area of westerly winds. Models are also consistent with isentropic upglide diminishing overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead. Stronger lower-level southerly winds tonight into Sunday bring warmer air in, so though cloud may again be persistent, expect highs several degrees warmer than today.
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure will track northeast and away from the mid Atlantic coast tonight.
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure stretching from the Upper Midwest all the way to the Gulf Coast will continue to control our weather tonight and Sunday. Don't see any reason we won't cool down to near dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Ridge axis will drift east of the CWFA Sunday which will allow weak warm advection to begin. Strong insolation along with the weak warm advection will likely push temperatures up at least into the low 80s. Ridge will continue moving east Sunday night with low level flow increasing from the south- southwest. Lows Sunday night will likely be a bit warmer than Sunday morning's lows due to the warmer start to the evening and the continuing weak warm advection.
The center of a large low pressure system continues rotating in place over southeast Oregon. Its cold front will stretch north to south across Utah today and make little progress east. On Sunday the low center makes little progress east and instead lifts to the northeast into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front will move through the forecast area, but the strongest forcing will remain across the north.
An upper trough will keep the weather showery and cool through Sunday--especially in the mountains.
Another omega block pattern is in place with the ridge of high pressure extending up into the northern Pains. With the ridge building into the region today, northwesterly flow will filter in drier and cooler air. JMS For 18Z TAFs: A secondary cold front is now entering northern AL and a sct/bkn cloud deck around 4000ft has developed along the front. However, the main upper level system is entering north central TN and another sct/bkn deck around 4000ft has formed near the low.
however a thin cirrus shield will likely help to keep temps elevated overnight in the lower 50s to upper 40s across the forecast area. With dew points this afternoon falling into the lower to middle 40s and a few upper 30s. temperatures overnight may be able to quickly fall and could allow lows to be a few degrees cooler than currently forecasting. A high amplitude mid-level ridge extends North through Central Canada early Sunday and will drift east over the Western Great Lakes. Areas adjacent to Lake Michigan will likely be several degrees cooler with a light onshore flow in the afternoon. with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
229 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Large trough sprawled across the western US will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A subtle cold front associated with the trough will brush the area late tonight towards morning. The low center that was to our west today will shift northeast through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with below normal highs. Nighttime lows Sunday night will also be below normal and quite a bit cooler than tonight's. Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the period. Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the mean trough during the second half of the week. Low level wind shear is also possible late tonight as the lower valleys decouple.
243 PM PDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure persisting over northern California will keep below average temperatures with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week.
142 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 The upper ridge over Oklahoma will drift east tonight opening the way for multi-day influence of a slowly-moving, large upper level trough over the western U. Further, showers and thunderstorms may develop early sunday over northwest texas when a weak upper low passes through the upper ridge.
temperatures will rise to the lower 70s. except near Lake Michigan where the lake breezes will contribute to cooler air spreading inland this afternoon.
144 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Northern Michigan centered between Ohio Valley low pressure and a moisture starved cold front dropping south into Lake Superior. High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states today. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the passing front. with cooler temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year.
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A cold front is slowly moving through the southern half of the state this afternoon.
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure off to our east will continue to move east the rest of the weekend, which will allow high pressure to build over the middle Mississippi Valley.
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A large upper level low pressure system will keep unsettled conditions over the area through early this week. Low pressure in the lower Ohio valley is producing enough isentropic lift to generate this activity while the secondary low near Delmarva becomes the dominate feature by this evening. Will continue with chc pops through the late night period as the upper level trof moves into the region. Upper level trof deepens and cuts off over the forecast area then drops south during the afternoon. Upper level low will continue dropping south into VA/NC area.
159 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend. The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s.
Cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday with the most concentrated precipitation expected over the Idaho Panhandle. Radar shows increasing showers over SE Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as a wave coming around a large closed low over Oregon moves into the area. JW 18Z TAFS: Another disturbance rotation around a large low pressure system over Oregon will move into SE Washington and N Idaho this afternoon and tonight bringing numerous showers. Some of the rain will wrap around the back side of the low into NE WA/N Idaho overnight into Sunday morning as the low tracks into NW Montana and Alberta. As the low tracks NE of the area Sunday morning pressure gradients increase, with breezy SW winds developing in some areas.
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over the western United States and ridging over southern Canada and Northern Plains. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in developing southerly flow on the backside of ridge and advect warmer air into the forecast area.
101 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure over southern Ohio will dissipate today as another low develops along the East Coast later today. A trough of low pressure will linger back west over the local area through Sunday.
Troughing will remain over the area through much of the upcoming week keeping temperatures at mid to late April levels and bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra and southcentral Nevada mountains. Longwave troughing will remain over the area through the upcoming week keeping temperatures at mid-late April levels. We had a similar string of cooler than normal weather last year at this time but it rebounded to above normal at the end of May and reached 100+ degrees by the 30th.
244 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening, mainly across the high plains of southeast Wyoming into the far western Nebraska panhandle. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear, mainly due to considerable veering in the lowest 3 km. Strong upper low will sweep over the CWA Sunday along w/the surface fropa. Slightly cooler temperatures and drier low-levels are expected to limit instability enough so that severe weather will not be a major concern; however, with a 40-50 kt 500 hpa jet overhead, a stronger storm is definitely possible. Cooler.
A rather tranquil weather pattern will continue in the short term as mid level ridging keeps the area dry with northerly surface breezes.
352 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Highly amplified and slowly evolving longwave pattern will nudge east over the next 12 hours as the cyclonic gyre over the lower great lakes ingests additional energy diving out of Ontario tonight and closes off over the northern Appalachians. The exception will be the Thumb region where marine-modified air will limit mixing depths and therefore limit highs to the low to mid 60s.
256 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Quiet weather expected tonight as high pressure, at the surface and aloft builds into the region. A few of our more favored cold spots may drop into the upper 40s by Sunday morning with most of the forecast area seeing early morning lows in the lower 50s.
1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Large scale amplification will proceed this period and the deepening upper trof in the eastern U. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday owing to considerably more sunshine although still below average. Glass The upper ridge across the Plains will shift into the MS Valley on Sunday however the blocky nature to the downstream pattern will keep surface features in slow motion.
630 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure over West Virginia will move to the east coast tonight. A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will drop across the area on Sunday.
Water vapor imagery shows very dry air aloft over forecast area with upper trough axis moving across the area. Drier air spreads in tonight in wake of weak surface front/trough.
Lowered max temps slightly to account for morning fog/drizzle, few showers, stratus, and the recent trend of being cooler than guidance. Thinking stratus and fog will erode early afternoon across the west with the help of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms initially near highway 61 should increase in coverage and intensity as a cold pool develops across the northwest sandhills and drives a cold front southeast during the late evening and overnight.
404 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region, giving way to a Mostly sunny/Partly cloudy day across the region today with temps in the 80s. The ridge will begin to flatten on Sunday, and a weak disturbance will move near the region bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of East Texas.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The upper ridge continues to build aloft across the area into the short term period with a few perturbations within the upper flow. On Sunday, as the ridge moves further E the gradient will strengthen increasing SE winds in the afternoon.
309 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A trough of low pressure will linger over the local area through Sunday afternoon.
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes region, and the other over eastern OR. East of the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of 3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection developing over the Davis Mtns.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday night as another cold front moves through the state.
634 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather today and Saturday.
Sfc lee trough drawing low level moisture nwd and resulting in areas MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br stretching from potentially the KROW area to near KCVN and ewd between 14/06Z-14Z.
An upper level trough over the southwest states will move eastward and reach the local area on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to slightly above average with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Temp values look pretty good with lows in the low 60s where the heavier cloud cover will be close to the front and the upper 50s where only high clouds are expected in the southeast. As was the case yesterday, some chances for some patchy fog are possible in southeast Mississippi ahead of the cold front moving through due to light winds and dry air.
A warm front associated with the storm has moved just north of Burns, Boise, Mountain Home, and Twin Falls this morning. Precipitation has temporarily tapered off south of the warm front. A cold front is also associated with the storm and is forecast to move from west to east through the area later this afternoon. A band of moderate rain is associated with the cold front, so most of the forecast area will see a period of rain when the cold front passes through.
426 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will settle along the Atlantic coast. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday which generally falls within the MOS envelope.
Surface wise, a large continental region of high pressure is covering all of the eastern United States with a ridge reaching down the Florida peninsula.
650 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build toward the region today. The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
403 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 At 08z, a little higher based stratus starting to sneak up into the lower Missouri valley, an offshoot of larger mass of stratus to the south. Northward push today will be a bit problematic as gradually increase mixing, especially for the lower stratus forming across central KS pulled northward with strong southerly low-level jet. A nicely sheared layer atop the low level moisture suggests that drizzle will be possible, and perhaps even some fog as stratus lowers toward areas of higher terrain near/east of I-29. Kept highs a little cooler over northwest Iowa where it looks like the stratus will hang in the longest. Cooler air will settle in Saturday night which should erode the stratus and push it to the southeast.
137 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Showers will come to an end by early evening as a cold front moves through the region. That front will usher in noticeably cooler air for tonight and Friday, with areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night.
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday.
341 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build toward the region today. The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
143 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure centered over Illinois will move over the local area tonight and then shift to New England on Friday. The high will continue to influence the area into Saturday.
215 AM MST FRI OCT 14 2016 Strong high pressure over the region will keep dry conditions in place through the next several days. Flat ridging over the region will keep skies mainly clear through the period, with a very dry airmass allowing, at most, some cirrus clouds to move across the region from time-to-time.
647 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will settle along the Atlantic coast. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday which generally falls within the MOS envelope.
Still have areas of rain moving across the region however cold front is moving through and expect precipitation to diminish and change over to showers later this morning. As for wind expect southerly winds to be increasing during the day as the low nears the coast.
Have most areas in the mid-to-upper 70s and the southern valley in the low 80s.
Will maintain 3 SM MVFR fog from previous forecast but will take CIGS down to IFR for a few hours later this morning as latest NAM soundings show the lowest levels quite saturated.
351 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather today and Saturday.
209 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 A dry cold front will cross NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. The main cold front was located from eastern Tennesse NE across central Virginia at mid-evening. The milder lows of the warmer models appear most likely given the mixing of the boundary layer with the cold frontal passage, then the increase in cloudiness later tonight. Otherwise, it will remain dry with low to mid-level ridging centered over the area.
Southerly winds will strengthen during the day as a lee side trough develops. High pressure will begin to build overhead Saturday while a lee trof turns winds back to the south/southwest.
Variable cigs will prevail overnight under an upper trough exiting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as seen on WV imagery. /issued 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ Quite a change today in the wake of yesterday's cold front, as the combination of cloudcover and cold air advection has resulted in many locations struggling to make it out of the 50s and lower 60s, with the exception of southern zones where temperatures this afternoon are in the 70s and lower 80s.
Clouds and cooler airmass will bring a significant drop in daytime temperatures with highs today only reaching into the 60s in the Sacramento valley. A warm frontal band preceding this system is forecast to move through Norcal Saturday morning with the main front moving onshore in the afternoon.
239 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 06Z surface data had high pressure over the Great Lakes with a weak low in southeast Colorado. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. After sunset, the low clouds will slowly move east through sunrise Saturday. This is most true over the northwest where the moist layer is deepest and the cooler boundary layer exits.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Cool yet mostly clear conditions can be expected today through tonight as high pressure takes over the region. Warmer air will return over the weekend.
There will be a brief break in the weather Friday and Friday night but it will be windy across much of the lower elevations with gusty sw-w winds. The exact track of the low will determine the extent of the wind impacts.
With zonal flow aloft and high pressure settling at the surface through Friday, winds will lighten and skies will clear. Models keep our area under weak ridging, and have the limited precipitation developing to our southeast in the IND/ILN forecast areas.