Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z.
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW DEVELOPING SO LEFT THEM UNCHANGED. HAD TO ALSO UNDERCUT HIGHS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
343 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 62 74 49 / 100 50 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 61 74 48 / 100 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 61 72 47 / 100 60 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 55 74 46 / 100 60 70 40.
357 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND A SECOND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WAS AIDING IN THE INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND GETS ABSORBED WITHIN A CLOSED LOW DROPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO EASTERN KS THIS AFTN. TOMORROW AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. TEMPS ARE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. AFTN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ON PAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE RECORDED TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEN DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will develop. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in colder temperatures aloft. Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only reach the lower and middle 60s. A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.
MONTANA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 CLOSED LOW NORTH OF WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH INTO OKLAHOMA. RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. RIVER VALLEYS AND TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 250MB JET ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL DRAW CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will develop. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in colder temperatures aloft. Precipitation to then end west to east tonight as upper low lifts northeast.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN BECOMES IF ANY OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INDICATED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM RAPELJE TO BILLINGS TO NEAR HARDIN. WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WORKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS MIXED OUT WITH WINDS 20 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TEENS AS OF 2 PM. WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY DUE TO RELATED DECREASING HEIGHTS AS RIDGE IS WEAKENED. WE EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS TROUGH DROPS TO THE WEST COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S AND EVEN UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
930 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH TROF DEEPENING OVER THE PAC NW. TROF EXTENDS FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE. ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SW ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE PAC NW. VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BACK INTO WESTERN ZONES. TOMORROW WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE RECORD HEAT TODAY.
744 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TEMPS MODERATE JUST SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE RIDGE AND OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WHILE A TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND HUMID EACH SUBSEQUENT WORK WEEK DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DAYS MAINLY DRY.
SUNNY SKIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FINALLY POPPING UP ALONG TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WIND FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SOUTHERLY. WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT IN ZONES CLOSEST TO COLORADO AND NEAREST TO TROUGH. MODELS BRING H5 RIDGE FROM A MORE WNW ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A WSW ONE.
EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
lows tonight are expected to be at least 5 degrees warmer in most locations and this should preclude steam fog like we saw this morning. Louis due to urban heat island effect to the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks.
SFC LEE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AFT 14/16Z ERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE APPALACIANS WILL PROVIDE CAVOK THRU THE TAF PERIOD AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AS DRY AIR HOLDS FROM THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND THE LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER SE TX AND SRN LA WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SE.
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Upper level ridging will build back over the forecast area through tomorrow with dry conditions prevailing. Afternoon highs tomorrow will generally be in the lower 90s after overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across our southern counties to around 70 degrees in the northern Big Country.
1012 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE USUAL RURAL COOL LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S SE (TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE). AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE WEAK UPPER RIDGING TOMORROW AND DEEPER SW FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY INTO MID WEEK AS A LEE TROF DEEPENS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY BY LATE WEEK AS THE LEE TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND TURNS INTO A COLD FRONT.
610 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WEST DEEPENS.
756 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS ORIENTED N-S. RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD ALLOWS FOR COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS CREATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RECORD- LOW PWATS (AROUND 0.
917 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
712 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND DELIVER FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS TO SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT GRADIENT AND WARMER THERMAL FIELDS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.
QUIET EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WHILE THE CHILLY AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IS STARTING TO MODIFY. NOTHING UPSTREAM EXCEPT A THIN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BAND OF HIGHER LEVEL WAA CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ONTARIO. AS NOT ONLY DOES THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME WARM AND BECOME UNFAVORABLE. TO THE TO LOWER HALF OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NW LOWER COAST AND MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER WITH STRONGER WINDS COMING OFF THE WARMER WATERS.
Latest sfc analysis shows a leeside trough along the Front Range, which has induced modest southerly flow across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. /issued 232 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ An upper level ridge is now impacting the western 2/3rds of the country with an upper trough over the eastern conus. This upper ridging will keep rain and storm chances confined to the higher terrain and surrounding plains of West Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will once again warm back up to above normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s across most areas. The upper ridge will become better established over the region on Monday as an upper trough moves over the western coast.
1205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ACROSS N FL TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS FARTHER NORTH. WHILE MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL WILL STILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE TONIGHT.
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1051 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 ISSUED AT 330 CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH/DRY LINE LIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO SEE SOME ASSISTANCE BY THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR A SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WARRANTED. TOMORROW THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 90S EXPECTED. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E/SE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM ARE ABOUT HALF WHAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BEGIN MODERATING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MUCH MORE QUICKLY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO BE 7 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT/S LOWS.
THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
This will result in south winds each day ahead of the lee trough over western Kansas.
SO IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING REACH THE LOW LEVELS. SFC LEE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AFT 14/16Z ERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST WINDS. ZONAL STEERING FLOW ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERHEAD AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE PACIFIC U.
EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S OUT WEST TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD TO COASTAL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES.
TEMPS WILL BE AS COOL OR COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSITION FROM THIS TROUGH TO MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTHERLY WIND RESPONSE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 TOWARDS DAWN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WILL GO COLDEST IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
1153 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 ISSUED AT 330 CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH/DRY LINE LIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO SEE SOME ASSISTANCE BY THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR A SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WARRANTED. TOMORROW THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 90S EXPECTED. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
600 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. BUT CONVERSE COUNTY SHOULD SEE HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS PRIOR TO STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION. COULD SEE GUSTY ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS PRODUCED FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA LOOKS TO BE QUITE PREVALENT WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
With the low level high pressure off to the east, will continue to see a warm air advection pattern tonight into Monday in the lower levels. Temperatures will be warmer than last night, where parts of the eastern Ozarks actually dipped into the upper 30s. to the lower 60s out west. Upper ridge will build over the eastern U. and amplify with time as trough develops out west. Trough will eventually swing eastward by the end of the week and our shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually increase.
710 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0.
1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WEST DEEPENS.
47 A NICE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY FOR THE REGION WITH 3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS FEATURE WAS PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS /HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S/. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFF MEXICO PUSHES INTO COASTAL MEXICO MONDAY.
1158 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE DELIVERED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST STATES THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING OVER SE MICHIGAN. THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT GRADIENT AND WARMER THERMAL FIELDS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.
1034 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TEMPS MODERATE JUST SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE RIDGE AND OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WHILE A TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST.
857 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS NEAR THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FUEL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 High pressure continues to move slowly away from central Illinois this evening bringing a clear sky and light winds to the forecast area. The light wind flow has allowed temperatures to nose dive once again early this evening, especially across the east which is closer to the ridge axis. Ridge axis shifting east across the state early this afternoon. With southerly winds setting up on the back side of the ridge, milder conditions are expected tonight. A pleasant stretch of late summer weather expected through mid week across IL as upper level high pressure ridge builds across the eastern U.
829 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 High pressure continues to move slowly away from central Illinois this evening bringing a clear sky and light winds to the forecast area. The light wind flow has allowed temperatures to nose dive once again early this evening, especially across the east which is closer to the ridge axis. Ridge axis shifting east across the state early this afternoon. With southerly winds setting up on the back side of the ridge, milder conditions are expected tonight. A pleasant stretch of late summer weather expected through mid week across IL as upper level high pressure ridge builds across the eastern U.