Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A midwest trough with an associated weak frontal boundary will wash out over the CWA during the next 36 hours bringing scattered showers along with it. Above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough will remain well to the north of the forecast area.
316 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge off the sern U.
400 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Late night sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the cntl wrn Atlantic, providing a moist srly low-level flow over the region. Meanwhile a cool front was noted extending from low pressure over the Great Lakes swwd through the Ozarks to the Red River Valley. Water vapor imagery showed a trof axis nearly overhead this morning with ridging building to our west. Main issue tonight continues to be the likelihood for fog development, especially near the coast where marine fog is likely given the warmer dewpoints interacting with cooler shelf waters and advecting inland.
Despite the weak northerly winds, sunshine this afternoon should help bring high temperatures back in to the lower to middle 40s. This may create a travel concern as temperatures fall below freezing on wet areas. High temperatures for Wednesday will range from the lower to middle 40s.
124 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week. A cold front is expected to stall over or just north of the region Wednesday into the weekend. At the surface, High pressure is forecasted to remain off the coast into mid week.
Mostly a zonal flow over the central CONUS with an upper level low over the Pacific approaching Southern California and broad subtropical ridging over Central Mexico.
While a couple hundredths of liquid are possible, any snow will likely melt on impact, making travel impacts very minimal until refreezing occurs Wed night.
Showers will initially continue to increase this morning from the west ahead of a cold front currently pushing into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 53 70 55 71 / 90 50 50 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 51 67 52 70 / 80 60 40 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 65 49 67 51 69 / 80 50 40 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 48 64 47 68 / 60 60 30 30 50.
The low-level jet will enhance the isentropic lift. The low-level jet will also produce windy conditions across the higher elevations.
Troughiness digging into the northwestern United States will allow for broad southerly low level flow to develop on the Plains.
But as advertised, a northern stream wave moving from the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes area helps push a cold front down the Plains moving into northern Oklahoma tonight after midnight.
Low temperatures tonight will be warmer tonight and generally in the mid 50s as increased cloudiness and increasing moisture keeps things warmer tonight. Temperatures will warm each day with the low 80s likely by Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible within the broader region of warm advection initiated by the low level jet, with the greatest instability and hence, most intense activity coincident with the front itself in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Subtle weak mid/upper ridging is anticipated across the area on Tuesday with return flow and low level warm air advection. We could see some morning virga or perhaps a few showers across portions of central KS early Tue and limited insolation may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential with most locations seeing highs in the lower 60s. A robust mid/upper trough is progged to move over the Northern Plains on Thu driving a cold front south into the Central Plains.
It appears most locations will hover around freezing Tuesday night.
Model guidance suggests highs will be well above normal, in the low to mid 70s. Moisture advection and 850 mb flow will strengthen in the late afternoon as a weak cold front pushes towards the forecast area from the north. Although warmer than normal temperatures are likely through the rest of the week. Widespread clouds blanket the region with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper trough over the MS Valley which will approach from the west today.
This combined with the low-level moisture with the southeasterly flow, precipitable water values continue to rise as a result of the deep column moisture. With mid-level ridging building back over the area, do anticipate for partly cloudy skies to return Wednesday afternoon across the majority of Deep South Texas. This will lead to more insolation and even warmer temperatures compared to the last few days.
/issued 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ Temperatures are warming quickly this afternoon thanks to westerly downsloping winds and a weak 500 hpa ridge building over the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be warmer yet as mid-level heights increase and the low-level thermal ridge shifts eastward.
With temperatures near to below freezing, a few slick spots are possible on roads. With temperatures still in the lower 30s, there could be a little rain or snow. Have some concerns for the high temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures cool into the lower 30s, but precipitation should end before the temperatures cool enough to change the precipitation type.
359 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 An approaching cold front will bring some showers today, particularly during the afternoon.
Rain chances should eventually increase after midnight as broad ascent on the van of the aforementioned trough encroaches the forecast area. Additional showers will develop along this boundary, aided by closer proximity to the trough axis. Depending on heating/recovery, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the aftn when the trough axis will approach region, with cooling temperature aloft potentially unlocking weak instability. Lack of strong CAA behind Tuesday's cold front and quasi-zonal flow aloft will result in above normal temperature through the period. High pressure will likely provide brief dry conditions in the wake of Wednesday's system.
Model guidance is not overly supportive but given the moist ground conditions, upslope winds, and a warm frontal boundary moving north out of the Big County/Permian Basin, we certainly could see fog especially at KLBB/KPVW with a lesser risk at KCDS. /issued 212 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ A cold front has moved through the forecast area bringing a wind shift to northwest and a period of gusty winds but little in the way of cooler air. Upper level ridging will build overhead starting tomorrow and continue through much of the week. At the surface lee side troughing will result in west to southwest winds.
316 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 As of 2 AM, low pressure was exiting to the Great Lakes with high pressure diving south into the region. Clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies later this morning/early afternoon as the high pressure builds into the area. Rainfall amounts won't be close to what we just had, with trace amounts just south of I-80 up to around a quarter inch just north of the Highway 20 corridor.
Rain showers are expected this morning and much of the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front which should begin to enter OH zones by mid-afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front on Wednesday but still above normal.
125 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Rain will continue overnight as a cold front approaches. It will be a bit cooler in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, with highs ranging from the lower 40s near Lake Michigan to the middle 50s in east central Indiana into northwest Ohio. Overnight temperatures will stay above freezing.
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain tapering off early today - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning - Turning cooler for the end of the week into the weekend - Rain tapering off early today Guidance is in relative agreement in showing the deep moisture departing off to the east of Lansing between now and daybreak. but based on the diminishing trend to the precipitation and temperatures mostly above freezing it looks like any impacts should remain localized. - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning Low temperatures are forecasted to drop to near or below freezing values Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
with just a few showers remaining over the high country of north central Colorado. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal in the low valleys with near normal anticipated near snowpack.
Southwest to westerly winds on Wednesday will bring warm temps into the area with highs in the 40s, to the low 60s.
742 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 An approaching cold front will bring some showers today, particularly during the afternoon.
Lows tonight will also be some 20 degrees warmer than usual early March lows.
Regional radars show precipitation moving across much of the Ohio River Valley along and ahead of a cold front that, as of 12z, extends from roughly Detroit through Indianapolis and southward. The 12Z PBZ sounding notes 35kts at 2000 feet and 50 knots at 3000 feet within the LLJ ahead of the associated trough. The cold front will then enter eastern Ohio by around noon today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front on Wednesday but still above normal.
The high for the day will occur this morning ahead of the front, and then temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 40s behind it. A brief upper ridge will move in tonight providing a short break from chances for rain.
As of 2 AM, low pressure was exiting to the Great Lakes with high pressure diving south into the region. Clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies later this morning/early afternoon as the high pressure builds into the area. Rainfall amounts won't be close to what we just had, with trace amounts just south of I-80 up to around a quarter inch just north of the Highway 20 corridor.
Only scattered and short- lived showers are possible elsewhere as an associated front sweeps through behind the low. Wednesday night brings a cold front pulled east by a dominant low in the northern jet, but aided by an sub-tropical accomplice low. Models are far from consensus, but agree in an active pattern with the west coast trof deepening and a closed low approaching on the southerly jet.
Drier conditions are expected tonight/Wednesday, as the upper ridge gradually builds, and as the upper jet streak moves north of the CWA.
/issued 400 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/ Late night sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the cntl wrn Atlantic, providing a moist srly low-level flow over the region. Meanwhile a cool front was noted extending from low pressure over the Great Lakes swwd through the Ozarks to the Red River Valley. Water vapor imagery showed a trof axis nearly overhead this morning with ridging building to our west. Main issue tonight continues to be the likelihood for fog development, especially near the coast where marine fog is likely given the warmer dewpoints interacting with cooler shelf waters and advecting inland.
544 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Split flow was observed across the western CONUS this morning with a deep closed low off the coast of California and a mostly zonal polar branch across the northern 3rd of the US. High pressure will develop late this evening from the west signaling the return of stronger westerly winds.
At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from Cape Girardeau, Missouri southwest into Walnut Ridge, Arkansas and back through Little Rock, Arkansas.
625 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge off the sern U. A zonal pattern will develop across the central CONUS this week with upstream flow taking on more of a split-flow, blocking regime.
With plenty of lingering clouds today, trended below the warmer GFS MOS temps.
Surface analysis late this morning shows a cold front across Western Ohio. High pressure was found over eastern Kansas. Radar shows showers associated with the cold front exiting the state. Models show the high pressure system over Kansas will continue to build across Indiana this afternoon as the cold front and associated short wave continue to depart to the east.
A cold front has pushed through the Memphis metro and is currently approaching Tunica, MS and Jackson, TN. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from Cape Girardeau, Missouri southwest into Walnut Ridge, Arkansas and back through Little Rock, Arkansas.
Dew points are still rather comfortable in the lower 60s. Temperatures look to peak in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with dew points hanging on to the lower to mid 60s. Still anticipating the removal of at least the Gulf waters by this afternoon as high pressure near Bermuda continues to weaken and shift farther east into the Atlantic.
current radar imagery shows the second round of rain showers spreading east across the region ahead of the advancing cold front. Showers will become widespread through the early afternoon as the sfc cold front enters eastern Ohio. Showers will quickly diminish after FROPA with building high pressure and advection of drier air. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front on Wednesday but still above normal.
341 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Split flow was observed across the western CONUS this morning with a deep closed low off the coast of California and a mostly zonal polar branch across the northern 3rd of the US. High pressure will develop late this evening from the west signaling the return of stronger westerly winds.
A low pressure system off the California coast will move inland late in the week, impacting mainly southern Utah and points south.
Cooler weather with rain chances return during the weekend. Skies are clear across most of NorCal early this morning, though the deep closed low off the coast to our southwest continues to send some mid and high clouds northward across areas south of Sacramento.
711 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week. A cold front is expected to stall over or just north of the region this weekend. Today: The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the central Atlantic and a slow moving cold front back across the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Expect another mild afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place during the period as high pressure lingers offshore.
526 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Water vapor shows distinct short wave moving through northwest SD early this morning with main trof axis over the northern Rockies. At the surface, ridge has shifted into the eastern Dakotas with broad low over eastern WY. Snow/rain showers may redevelop this afternoon across much of western SD given main upper trof moving through and some steepening lapse rates. Short wave ridge and surface trof will cross the northern plains on Wednesday resulting in dry and mild conditions with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Grassland fire danger will reach the high to very high categories.
958 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week. A cold front is expected to stall over or just north of the region this weekend. Today: The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the central Atlantic and a slow moving cold front back across the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Expect another mild afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place during the period as high pressure lingers offshore.
846 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A weak upper-level trough will continue to push across the Tennessee Valley this morning, bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers through the region. Temperatures will only fall into the lower 50s overnight due to lower cloud cover remaining.
Temperatures ranged from the low 20s to the mid 30s. Surface ridging moves overhead today, bringing plentiful sunshine for at least the morning hours. Warmer solutions would suggest mainly rain, however. As precipitation moves out early Wednesday morning, can't rule out a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle, but drying low levels and decreasing lift look to limit the potential for this.
Otherwise we should be dry and cool this morning though temperatures are expected to warm back into the mid to upper 40s for the most part though the northeast and areas along the lakeshore will likely remain cooler.
318 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Water vapor shows distinct short wave moving through northwest SD early this morning with main trof axis over the northern Rockies. At the surface, ridge has shifted into the eastern Dakotas with broad low over eastern WY. Snow/rain showers may redevelop this afternoon across much of western SD given main upper trof moving through and some steepening lapse rates. Short wave ridge and surface trof will cross the northern plains on Wednesday resulting in dry and mild conditions with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Grassland fire danger will reach the high to very high categories.
The high will support east-southeast winds around 10 knots or less and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
Winds will then turn to the northwest with the passage of a cold front after midnight. The strongest winds will likely be across the western Panhandles as a surface lee-side trough strengthens ahead of a mid and upper level trough moving southeast from the central Rockies. As the short wave trough moves across the northern parts of the CWA this evening it may produce some virga. A weak cold front will move across the Panhandles early on Wednesday behind the departing short wave trough. This lee-side trough will help to turn the winds around to the south during the afternoon on Wednesday. High temperatures may only be a few degrees cooler than today given the quick turn-around to southerly winds.
Some patches of valley freezing fog may be present through this morning, however the impact will be minor.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to drop southward toward and eventually across the area later today into tonight.
Temperatures will begin to trend downward past midweek as a strong upper low begins to develop over the Pacific Northwest. As this low moves south along the coast, a winter storm system will spin up over the northern Rockies.
711 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Aviation - Rain tapering off early today - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning - Turning cooler for the end of the week into the weekend - Rain tapering off early today Guidance is in relative agreement in showing the deep moisture departing off to the east of Lansing between now and daybreak. but based on the diminishing trend to the precipitation and temperatures mostly above freezing it looks like any impacts should remain localized. - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning Low temperatures are forecasted to drop to near or below freezing values Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
A low pressure system will approach the California coast today through Wednesday.
533 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 An approaching cold front will bring some showers today, particularly during the afternoon.
Rain showers continue across the Mid State this morning, ahead of a weak cold front. Satellite imagery and surface obs depict the cold front moving into our northwestern counties now.
At the surface, ridging prevailed through the western Great lakes with light winds and plenty of sunshine. Mid clouds were increasing from MN into western WI with WAA/isentropic lift ahead of a trough through the Western Plains. Wednesday, mid level and sfc ridging are expected to take over with any remaining snow over the east ending early.
Split flow was observed across the western CONUS this morning with a deep closed low off the coast of California and a mostly zonal polar branch across the northern 3rd of the US. High pressure will develop late this evening from the west signaling the return of stronger westerly winds.
We'll continue our climb toward the upper seventies for the remainder of this afternoon and again tomorrow, under a building ridge to the west. Split upper level flow will stall the onshore progress of the Pacific Low overnight into tomorrow, while a broad and progressive disturbance in the Polar Jet flattens the ridge over the Four Corners region. With warmer temperatures this afternoon and upper level clouds gradually filling in overnight, we'll see the continuation of more mild overnight lows, mainly in the 50s with the exception of our northwest zones, which will be in the upper 40s.
312 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Rapid clearing will occur late today from north to south as subsidence in the wake of cold frontal boundary settles through the area.
151 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge off the sern U. A zonal pattern will develop across the central CONUS this week with upstream flow taking on more of a split-flow, blocking regime.
223 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Aviation - Rain tapering off early today - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning - Turning cooler for the end of the week into the weekend - Rain tapering off early today Guidance is in relative agreement in showing the deep moisture departing off to the east of Lansing between now and daybreak. but based on the diminishing trend to the precipitation and temperatures mostly above freezing it looks like any impacts should remain localized. - A few slick spots possible Wednesday Morning Low temperatures are forecasted to drop to near or below freezing values Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
This afternoon: Main surface cold front remains well off to the west of the region, with the boundary across western TN and northwestern MS.
QPF overall should remain light through, and with surface temperatures above freezing no lasting wintry accumulation is anticipated.
3 inches, and ridging building aloft will prevent much more than a few sprinkles from developing. Temperatures will remain above normal with dew points slowly climbing into the lower to middle 60s. High pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean stretching west across the Florida Peninsula will maintain tranquil boating conditions through the upcoming weekend. The high will support east- southeast winds around 10 knots or less and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
However, areas of fog may be a concern overnight, particularly if some breaks in the higher level cloud cover occur overnight.
/issued 926 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/ A cold front has pushed through the Memphis metro and is currently approaching Tunica, MS and Jackson, TN. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed from Cape Girardeau, Missouri southwest into Walnut Ridge, Arkansas and back through Little Rock, Arkansas.
The edge of the lower deck of clouds has been slow to move out and there could be some fog tonight. Will go with the idea that the lower clouds will move out of the area this afternoon/evening and will move back with some fog later tonight. With sunshine and warm advection, expect temperatures to be warmer on Wednesday.
Winds will turn northwesterly between 07Z and 11Z from north to south and then towards the end of the period begin to turn northeasterly as the low moves away. The strongest winds will likely be across the western Panhandles as a surface lee-side trough strengthens ahead of a mid and upper level trough moving southeast from the central Rockies. As the short wave trough moves across the northern parts of the CWA this evening it may produce some virga. A weak cold front will move across the Panhandles early on Wednesday behind the departing short wave trough. This lee-side trough will help to turn the winds around to the south during the afternoon on Wednesday. High temperatures may only be a few degrees cooler than today given the quick turn-around to southerly winds.
In this area, roughly along the highway 20 corridor counties, between a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is possible.