Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The primary upper trough sits over the central US this morning. The disturbance that impacted the area yesterday has moved off to the east-northeast, but another couple of disturbances have yet to round the trough. Skies will remain cloudy through the day, and temperatures are expected to be much cooler than yesterday. Nearly 30 to 40 degrees cooler in some spots. Tonight:Another disturbance will dive into the parent trough and bring with it a chance for some light snow showers.
Elsewhere, there's quite a bit of weak convection in the drier air, but very little making it to the ground outside of the higher mountains. For Thursday, warmer, drier, stable air will move over us. Temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer and the going forecast looks good.
253 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix.
228 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Deep trough that brought the cool air to the area yesterday is the impetus for some nasty T-storms over the lower Mississippi Valley today.
Some lingering snow showers will be possible across the higher terrain through the afternoon, but accumulations will be minimal. Latest satellite and 500 mb analyses indicated the Pacific storm which began to impact the region last night has shifted east of the area as an open wave mid-level trough overnight. The higher valleys and mountain bases will see teens and 20s with readings in the lower to mid-30s across the lower valleys by sunrise Thursday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A cold front moved through this morning, bringing breezy and gusty northwest winds and clearing skies but little difference in temperature. Overnight low temps tonight under mostly clear skies will be cooler than average, mainly in the 50s. The reinforcing high will provide deep South Texas and the RGV with an onshore flow Thursday afternoon, which may help keep coastal regions a few degrees cooler than Wednesday east of I-69E.
239 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Brief period of upper ridging is bringing us sunny/quiet wx today with temps now in the 50s across our west. Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving into western MT ahead of PacNW trof. Precip chances at lower elevations from Pacific trof will be hindered by deep downslope flow, but expect mountain snow and a with shower activity continuing Thursday night as secondary PV lobe drops thru the region on the back side of the main trof. though the higher hills of far southeast MT could see a little snow accumulation Thursday night.
Surface analysis right now depicts our region in the warm sector with the warm front well north and east of our CWA. Further west, the cold front is sliding through AR and the TX/LA border with a line of strong/severe storms just out ahead. Models suggest that another well- defined mid-level vort max will pivot east-northeastward through the TN Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, around a deep upper low over the Great Lakes.
258 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A closed upper low at the base of a positively tilted trough/ deformation axis is diving south along the High Plains this afternoon. Overnight lows in these areas will likely fall into the mid teens, and perhaps even cooler in low lying areas. But if cloud cover persists to the east, lows would then likely fall on the warmer side of guidance. There will not be enough moisture for any precipitation with this trough, but it may become breezy to its west.
If we see severe storms, our southwest looks like the highest probability. A cold front will be right on this band of storms heels and will be well east by sunrise tomorrow, with the trailing upper trough axis east Thu evening. There is a hint of some showers across the west Thu afternoon as the upper trough passes but will hold off on those for now. SFC/LL high pressure will break down late Mon, and Mon night/Tue we are looking at impacts from our next storm system. Tue morning a warm front will set up to our north and deep moisture ahead an upper wave will return. And while this warm front will move north Tues afternoon, another weak low/boundary looks to move over the mid-south on Wed as well.
As this trough moves over the Rockies, precipitation will form and move to the southeast towards the area. With temperatures dropping to near freezing for areas near Friona, there may be a transition from rain to rain/snow mix for the southwestern Texas Panhandle for a brief period. Precipitation will move east through the night and will be possible through the early morning hours for areas off the Caprock as the trough moves to our north.
244 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Low pressure will drift eastward tonight with some wrap around moisture expected.
(Tonight) The cold front has cleared most of eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas early this afternoon, with parts of far southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley still ahead of it. Parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas near the Kansas and Missouri borders will see low temperatures near freezing tonight.
256 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Some lingering clouds, as well as light snow shower activity over the higher terrain, continue this hour. A transient ridge of high pressure will build in this evening, bringing that dry air as well as clear skies and unseasonably cold temperatures.
Closed upper low will move east across the central Plains states as the trough axis approaches the Panhandles from the central and southern U. Main upper low and trough exit the forecast area by 12Z Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the southwestern states northward across the Four Corners region and northern U.
210 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Pressure gradient continues to rapidly contract at the surface through the low/mid levels. Very evident at 850hPa where the ridge to east has helped jam the gradient between the fast approaching low to the west. Further west, the cold front of interest is pushing through AR at the moment with a strong squall along/ahead. The line itself has slowed but will eventually pick up in speed as the the low/mid level wind field further establishes. The cold front and prefrontal precip will be well east of the area tomorrow and high pressure will be re-establishing from the northwest. Temps will be noticeably cooler than on Wednesday, falling into the mid 60s.
226 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 From a synoptic standpoint, the Florida Keys are currently sandwiched between ridging off the eastern seaboard, extending into the Bahamas, and a high amplitude trough moving into the Mississippi Valley region.
(The rest of today ) Cold front, currently located near a MLC/Jay line, will push through the remainder of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by mid afternoon. Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two will remain possible this afternoon in association with main upper trough axis. Otherwise, cool/breezy conditions expected behind the cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1248 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Models were in good agreement earlier today with an upper level trough, located over Wyoming at 12z Wednesday, crossing northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas early tonight. Thursday will be sunny and warmer given improving downslope flow and warming boundary layer temperatures.
10:00 am temperatures are running a little cooler than expected, currently in the low 70s across most of the Midsouth. This trough and attendant cold front will traverse the region throughout the day.
107 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low circulation is located over the northeast NE/southeast SD area early this morning. Locally, some light precipitation will continue to wrap southward across eastern portions of north central NE this morning in association with the NE/SD upper low. Eventually this northern stream energy diving south will phase with the NE/SD upper low across IA during the day Thursday. Temperatures in this area will struggle to reach the freezing mark due to the combination of cloud cover/precipitation and CAA.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1132 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The short term starts with today being much cooler, windy, and a chance for snow this evening. Tomorrow is then warmer and drier.
There still remains the threat of severe storms producing even stronger winds/isolated TORs but latest data would suggest the southwest has the highest chance.
This should light snow to much of the area though as previously mentioned, with warm ground conditions and lows just approaching freezing, impacts should be largely mitigated. Have increased PoPs in this high coverage/low QPF event.
Warmer and drier temperatures are expected into the weekend. Some breezy to locally gusty conditions are possible over the high terrain of eastern Arizona this afternoon as well, however, much the stronger jet energy remains over New Mexico.
Cooler and drier air will move into our CWA in the wake of the trailing cold front that is expected to shift southeast of our CWA by morning. Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected Thursday.
An upper level low was found over Iowa this afternoon as a surface cold front had moved all the way across Iowa and into Illinois this afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front and behind dropped into the 40s and 30s. Rain was found with the cold front. Tomorrow the upper level low will be found across the area. Late Thursday night clouds will break up as the upper level thermal trof approaches the area.
Road surface temperatures are in the 30s and will cause some melting but there will be some accumulations on roads at times and especially on bridges.
Previous AFD: Pressure gradient continues to rapidly contract at the surface through the low/mid levels. Very evident at 850hPa where the ridge to east has helped jam the gradient between the fast approaching low to the west. Further west, the cold front of interest is pushing through AR at the moment with a strong squall along/ahead. The line itself has slowed but will eventually pick up in speed as the the low/mid level wind field further establishes. The cold front and prefrontal precip will be well east of the area tomorrow and high pressure will be re-establishing from the northwest. Temps will be noticeably cooler than on Wednesday, falling into the mid 60s.
Local radars are showing a few additional returns over our northwest associated with the cold front but elsewhere the rain will taper off by midnight. Temperatures were still running warm but will be knocked down later tonight with the passage of the cold front. Cooler and drier air will move into our CWA in the wake of the trailing cold front that is expected to shift southeast of our CWA by morning. Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected Thursday.
Large scale flow consisting of a longwave trough extending from the upper Midwest to the southern Plains.
An area of low pressure continues to push east of the region, leaving behind low clouds, gusty northerly winds, and patchy freezing drizzle. The eastern CWA should see a cloudy sky throughout the night, perhaps keeping lows on the higher side of guidance. A brief ridge on Thursday will transition to another trough on Thursday night. The ridge should bring warmer temps, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in northeast SD, to the lower 50s, west of the Missouri River. As the trough moves into the area Thursday night, it should bring light pcpn, possibly rain and snow into west river counties.
The windy conditions are due to a ridge to the east of Florida and a trough moving through the Ohio and Tennesse Valley and the central Gulf Coast States.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase tonight and Thursday with a crossing cold front. Storm mode for Thursday will likely be isolated cells within the warm sector and then a broken squall line ahead/along the the cold front. Rain shower activity will continue to pass through the region late Thursday as the low tracks into New England.
Tonight and Thursday 500mb upper trough over Iowa and Missouri is forecast to become negatively tilted as it lifts northeast across Wisconsin late tonight. The upper jet moving over the cold front over Illinois will produce a surface cyclone that should rapidly intensify as it lifts north northeast to northern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. The upper dynamics and low level warm advection and convergence will produce rain across the forecast region tonight, changing briefly to freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow due to cooling produced by vertical motion and by the latent heat of melting.
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Low pressure will drift eastward tonight with some wrap around moisture expected.
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Our upper level trough will continue to move off to the east along with the stratus and rain chances. With all of our area behind this mornings cold front passage, gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue until after sundown. It will be much colder tonight with radiational cooling enhancement with temperatures dropping near to just below freezing across northern Oklahoma, to mid to upper 30s across much of the remainder of our Oklahoma areas, to lower 40s near and south of the Red River into northern Texas. Thursday afternoons temperatures will stay slightly cooler than seasonably average for the end of March.
For tonight, mostly clear skies with minimum temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s along areas north of I-10, the upper 40s to mid 50s along areas south of I-10, and the low 60s along the coasts. A very nice spring day is on tap for Thursday with mostly sunny skies and maximum temperatures in the low to upper 70s along areas north of I- 10 and the upper 70s to low 80s along areas south of I-10.
Ongoing spring storm will continue as a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even some rain this afternoon.
Non-thunderstorm winds are already gusting into the lower 50s mph, as expected, it won't take much for damaging downdrafts. After that, the forecast is routine, and cooler. Some wrap-around may prolong a chance of showers and delay a clear-out, as the actual primary long wave trof does not fully pass until 24-36 hours later. Then it's high pressure sliding in/overhead and cooler air, with 50s/30s temps to finish out the near term.
608 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Some lingering clouds, as well as light snow shower activity over the higher terrain, continue this hour. A transient ridge of high pressure will build in this evening, bringing that dry air as well as clear skies and unseasonably cold temperatures.
We do have some isolated instances of non tstm wind damage due to the higher gradient winds.
623 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (Tonight) The cold front has cleared most of eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas early this afternoon, with parts of far southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley still ahead of it. Parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas near the Kansas and Missouri borders will see low temperatures near freezing tonight.
A closed upper low at the base of a positively tilted trough/ deformation axis is diving south along the High Plains this afternoon. Overnight lows in these areas will likely fall into the mid teens, and perhaps even cooler in low lying areas. But if cloud cover persists to the east, lows would then likely fall on the warmer side of guidance. There will not be enough moisture for any precipitation with this trough, but it may become breezy to its west.
(The rest of tonight) We've had some clearing this evening in the wake of the upper low that brought the early morning severe weather and spotty showers this afternoon. Thus, despite forecast lows near freezing tonight, this forecast will follow the same philosophy as the day shift by holding off on frost/freeze headlines.
Cooler tonight and Thursday with some showers Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon.
/issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ First off, have dropped the wrn half of the High Wind Warning area as sfc obs show winds drop off quick behind the squall line.
Showers associated with an upper trough continue to develop and move eastward near the ID/NV border, including Owyhee County. Gusty winds following an exiting cold front will diminish somewhat this evening, although it will remain breezy in many areas overnight. Dry, breezy, and cooler conditions are anticipated for Thursday.
High pressure will move east of the area tonight, allowing a quick hitting storm system to cross the area Thursday.
Area VWP's are beginning to show an increase in wind speeds within the lowest 1-3km suggesting the eastward motion of the core of a strong LLJ. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 68 42 63 39 / 100 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 71 43 60 36 / 90 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 69 41 60 35 / 100 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 73 42 55 32 / 90 60 30 0 0 NC.
214 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Through the weekend, night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will extend well inland, sometimes onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains.
These clouds have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. As the trough shifts to the east, a stronger pressure gradient will cause increased winds for tomorrow. A ridge moves over California, bringing warmer temperatures and mild weather for the rest of the week.
622 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix.
445 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Models were in good agreement earlier today with an upper level trough, located over Wyoming at 12z Wednesday, crossing northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas early tonight. Thursday will be sunny and warmer given improving downslope flow and warming boundary layer temperatures.
Winds are starting to calm slowly, and temperatures are dipping below freezing. Winds will continue to diminish into Thursday as weak high pressure moves into the Northern Plains. A bit more sun and less cold air advection will boost temps a bit higher than today into the low 40s. Another approaching trough should bring increasing clouds and winds shifting to the south ahead of the next system on Thursday night, so have temps near 30 in the west while better radiational cooling in the east should drop readings into the teens.
841 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Showers will continue tonight through much of Thursday as an upper level low lingers over the area. Expect lows tonight in the mid and upper 30s most areas, and highs Thursday only in the lower to mid 40s.
631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix.
425 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (Issued 425 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022) Tonight and Thursday: Low pressure is tracking across southern WI right now. The upper low is over Iowa and will dig into southern WI this evening. Cold air will track into southern WI from northwest to southeast late tonight while the higher QPF axis pivots across central and portions of south central WI. We were on the fence about including Milwaukee County at this time, but there is concern that the warmer temps could linger there longer and they might not see snow accumulation on the roads. Snow or a rain/snow mix is expected to linger across southern WI through Thursday morning and most of Thursday afternoon as the low pressure trough lingers over the region.
Dry and cooler air will filter in behind the front dropping early morning temperatures into the 40s.
308 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A closed upper low is currently dropping southeast across Kansas.
These troublesome breezes are expected to continue for the next couple of hours as strong high pressure centered over Bermuda continues east over the central Atlantic.
/issued 937 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ Surface analysis is showing the cold front extending along a line from Natchitoches, LA to El Dorado, AR as of 31/02z.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s. The low pressure system and cold front that gave us our severe weather yesterday continues its eastward push. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the low to mid 30s.
233 AM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Synoptic Setup: A very turbulent spring time pattern is setting up as extremely narrow and amplified ridges and trough couplets move across the region in 24 to 48 hours periods.
1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Showers will continue tonight through much of Thursday as an upper level low lingers over the area. Expect lows tonight in the mid and upper 30s most areas, and highs Thursday only in the lower to mid 40s.
Low cigs and freezing fog over parts of the eastern plains will lead to patchy IFR thru 14Z.
Area VWP's are beginning to show an increase in wind speeds within the lowest 1-3km suggesting the eastward motion of the core of a strong LLJ. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 42 63 39 67 / 20 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 43 60 36 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 41 60 35 64 / 20 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 42 55 32 62 / 50 30 0 0 10 NC.
Wind gusts of 20kts or more may occur through the next few hours as high pressure builds in. /issued 1015 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ Wx map shows cold front moving across C and SW LA, just past AEX and LCH at 10 PM. Expect the cooler and drier air to filter across the region with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 expected by daybreak Thursday. DML Expect northwest to north winds of 15-20 kts behind the cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution for the 0-20 nm marine zones. /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ First off, have dropped the wrn half of the High Wind Warning area as sfc obs show winds drop off quick behind the squall line.
The challenge for the next several hours whether we will get additional gusts near/above criteria through 12Z or maybe even a bit beyond as pressure gradient continues to increase and pre-frontal trough sweeps east. Thermal profiles will remain warm enough for all rain prior to the cold front, with a mix of rain/snow then expected prior to everything ending.
437 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will pass across the area this morning.
313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: - Light snow, patchy freezing drizzle this morning - Temperatures getting closer to seasonal normals Today and Tonight: Final phase of our mid-week system is underway with light snow on its backside before it finally departs today. Other concern with the intrusion of drier mid-level air is the potential for some patchy freezing drizzle through mid-morning. Have added this to the forecast as a possibility this morning, but am not anticipating much freezing drizzle production. With lingering cyclonic flow aloft and cold advection steepening the low level lapse rates, forecast soundings today suggest the possibility for flurries/sprinkles through much of the day given the moist, slightly unstable boundary layer. Clouds should largely diminish overnight as weak ridging builds in with lows dipping into the teens in the favored bog areas, mid 20s elsewhere.