Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Consensus among deterministic and several CAM solutions supports the going forecast of convection rounding the ridge into far northeast counties, with additional redevelopment during peak heating along the surface front/outflow boundaries.
This pattern will begin with a trough over the Pacific Northwest that extends into Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while the ridge extends north up through Hudson Bay. The trough will begin to split with one piece remaining of the Northwest Coast while the piece in Canada moves east and knocks the ridge over. This will allow the high pressure from the desert south to push north into Montana by Saturday to bring about a much warmer and unstable day.
1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 High pressure will continue to provide sunny skies through this afternoon. Warmer conditions are in store through this weekend with modest humidity levels.
719 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Low pressure will move southeast across the virginias to the mid atlantic coast early today as high pressure builds in from the north.
This boundary could provide the focus for afternoon convection, especially with slightly cooler temperatures aloft. But the main focus is to the high plains where the upslope flow of very moist air and good diffluence aloft should trigger significant convection this afternoon.
Upper level ridge will slowly shift west and strengthen.
1047 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 High pressure will build from northern Ontario and into the Great Lakes through the weekend with abundant sunshine and temperatures warming to above average.
with advertised highs running near or a little warmer than yesterday with slightly lower dewpoint trends noted.
949 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Cooler and drier air will filter in as high pressure builds into the region.
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 A cold front will push southeast through the region today and tonight.
1212 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Hydro The weekend will be very warm and dry with sunny skies as high pressure dominates our weather.
(Issued 548 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016) Another quiet and seasonably mild night is underway across the cntrl TN Valley this early Fri morning, as strong high pressure at the sfc continues to make its way into the mid/srn Atlantic. At the same time, a weak cold front was located from the mid Atlantic States wwd into the Midwest Region. With the oncoming weak cold front, slightly cooler/drier will begin to slowly advect swd into the region later this afternoon into the evening period. A dry and near seasonal weekend then looks to be in store for the TN Valley area, as a large dome of high pressure impacts much of the ern CONUS. as a cold front moves southward across the region.
The overall translation of any developing precipitation along the frontal boundary was depicted by the 4km NAM-WRF (ARW version), adjusted slightly southwest to reflect the current cold frontal position.
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 The upper level ridge, that has allowed temperatures to climb this week, will remain in place across the Central Plains into the weekend.
1041 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Upper low with lingering showers today, mainly east of Ohio River.
A weak cold front will backdoor its way into our region early Saturday. Upper-level ridge to maintain mainly dry conditions today with southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph.
Early this morning high pressure settled into the Great Lakes region. This high pressure is the main driver of sensible weather in the short term. With high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, drier more comfortable air will lead to a nice day today and tricky forecast for tonights lows as clear sky and slackening winds could lead temps to drop to near the dewpoint tonight. With models over doing the low level moisture as of late, there is a chance that tonight could be in 50s CWA wide. The upper level ridge currently over the central plains gets flattened and nudged eastward by a upper vortex moving across Canada.
A Strong upper high will build in from the south late today and tonight.
1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Low pressure will shift southeast away from the area today. High pressure over the great lakes will build across the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
As the somewhat weak LLJ begins to veer, wouldn't rule out an isolated shower/storm developing along the Buffalo Ridge after sunrise, but feel convection chances are low. Warm and humid weekend in store across the area with ridge building across the western half of the US.
/issued 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/ A slight moderation in the heat for portions of the Midsouth east and north of the Memphis metro today, as lower dewpoints spread in behind a weak backdoor cold front. At 3 AM CDT, this cold front had passed through Paris, TN, with upstream dewpoints in the lower and mid 60s over the western Ohio River Valley. Relief from the high dewpoints will prevail areawide for the weekend.
The cold front will move through northern GA and parts of SC during the day. The aforementioned cold front will encroach the Altamaha River Basin with isolated to widely scattered convection generally over SE GA by the afternoon. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. As a cold front enters and then moves south of area waters late tonight through Saturday moderate to strong northeast flow over the weekend at close to 25 knots with higher gusts at times with seas building generally into the 7-10 feet range.
953 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 High pressure and dry air remain firmly in control of the Great Lakes region this morning. Overview: large scale pattern features troughing along both coasts of NOAM and sharp ridging/very warm air through the plains and just into the western Great Lakes. Temps this afternoon will warm into the middle 80s for much of the area, with the usual cooler readings near the lakes. IMPACTS: None PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: Saturday morning, positively tilted H5 troughs sit along each coast, with a broad area of highly amplified, positively tilted ridging spanning from Baja California through Quebec. Good agreement for the ridge axis to fold through Michigan through the day Saturday.
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Have updated the HWO and related graphic to reflect the highlighted threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. /issued 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/ A slight moderation in the heat for portions of the Midsouth east and north of the Memphis metro today, as lower dewpoints spread in behind a weak backdoor cold front. At 3 AM CDT, this cold front had passed through Paris, TN, with upstream dewpoints in the lower and mid 60s over the western Ohio River Valley. Relief from the high dewpoints will prevail areawide for the weekend.
950 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Low pressure will move southeast across the virginias to the mid atlantic coast early today as high pressure builds in from the north.
This first chance will be in response to moisture moving in as the mid level ridge moves east.
The flow will shift to a north/northeasterly direction behind the front, ushering in slightly drier and cooler air.
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A cold front will result in rain and snow shower chances today before high pressure returns dry weather for tomorrow. Upper trough continues to pivot overhead this afternoon, with cold advection providing for rain and snow showers. Thus, temperatures have warmed into the low 40's, supporting more of a mix of rain and snow, even as 850hpa values falling to about -6C. The best locations to still see some snow but minimal accumulation will be the areas north of I-80 and in the high terrain through tonight as the deeper saturation of the boundary layer occurs to just near -10C. Building high pressure should bring a clearing trend for Sunday.
Clouds have all but disappeared across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, but temperatures haven't quite rebounded as most locations are still struggling to even reach the 50 degree mark! This chilly day will turn into a chilly night as temperatures fall below the freezing mark across almost all of Middle Tennessee.
Light rain is expected later this morning and afternoon at the lower elevations with light snow in the mountains. This will all move east- northeast and thus feel precipitation won't just be confined to the mountains today but the lower elevations as well. Still looking at snow levels getting down today to the 1000-1500 foot range with light rain at the lower elevations and light snow in the mountains. Cooler air will also be moving in with highs only in the 30s. Lingering snow showers in the northern mountains early Sunday night as upper low departs and northwest flow continues, however low level drying will bring those to an end pretty quickly.
Temperatures are in the low to middle 30s across most of the Midsouth. Temperatures there remain in the low to middle 40s. The low clouds in Northeast Arkansas should dissipate by midday.
Dry conditions persist again today but temperatures will be cooler and more seasonable in the mid/upper 50s. By this evening, deep upper level troughing should be advancing across the west coast. As has been promised the past few days, this trough will help form a major winter storm - in a typical east of the Front Range type development on Sunday.
This will also help to keep temperatures a little warmer than the past couple of mornings.
In the northwest, including parts of the Ozark Mountains, below freezing temperatures will result in freezing fog. Today Through Sunday Night It is another morning with areas of fog, and some freezing fog in parts of northwest Arkansas. Have Dense Fog and Freezing Fog Advisories going until 900 am CST. Strong high pressure will be over the region to begin the short term. The high will keep it dry today. At the same time, the high will shift to the east with time, and winds will become more southerly. As the high exits, a powerful storm system will track from the central Plains to the upper Midwest Sunday/Sunday night. As this happens, a cold front will make its way toward the region from the west.
Isolated to scattered convection currently over the Lower Texas coastal waters will need to be monitored, and may need to be included in amended TAFs before the next official issuance. As these two features fade and a weak 500 mb ridge becomes positioned directly over the region, drier weather will prevail tonight and Sunday.
Either way, mid and upper lvl cloudiness will increase in westerly flow aloft Sunday out ahead of upper trough movg towards area. Pcpn will begin as lgt rain late Sunday with increased embedded convection late tonight as shear increases in both the lower and the upper lvls.
Cooler conditions will exist across the forecast area as well, as a drier airmass advects into the region from the north. The high clouds are expected to thin a bit and eventually clear out of the CWA later today.
High pressure will allow for clearing skies through Sunday. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure midweek. Period starts with high pressure heading east and an upper ridge in place. But as upper level across the northern plains deepens, a surface cold front approaches from the west.
Another mixed bag of conditions tonight as Gulf moisture continues to surge in at the low-levels with winds veering more towards the east.
In addition, a cold front will bring much colder temperatures to the state, generally ranging 10 to 15 degrees colder. Strong southerly associated with the approaching upper trough are in place over northern Nye and White Pine counties.
An approaching weak cold front will bring a slight increase in shower activity for later tonight and through Sunday, but mainly along the coast to just offshore. Afternoon highs will remain in the lower 80s in most locations across South Florida with some periods of increasing cloud cover. A weak cold front will push southward down the north/central portion of Florida during the afternoon. Dry weather will generally prevail through mid week, behind the frontal passage, as a ridge of high pressure draws near. This ridge will allow for the flow to become east/southeast and breezy at times with a tightening pressure gradient, along with increasing low- level moisture.
There is ridging aloft in the synoptic scale upper flow pattern, with a small embedded wave moving across the region today in the flow. Temperatures are below freezing at KFYV with light ice accretion reported. /Issued 336 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/ Areas of freezing fog are occurring in parts of northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. especially bridges over water. A Freezing Fog advisory is up for northwest Arkansas and east-central and northeast Oklahoma. The system will track into the northern Plains and drive a cold front across the region. Initially the low-level moisture will be limited and come up to our west.
1145 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 500 mb ridge is moving east across the north central CONUS. A strong upper low approaching from the southwest will bring rain into the area Sunday afternoon, with rain chances increasing steadily from the southwest starting just before noon. However, it can be seen on BUFKIT model soundings that the lower levels will be too cool for surface based convection, so will not mention severe storms, as per the SPC day 2 outlook for this area.
402 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 High pressure will bring decreasing clouds overnight with lows in the lower 30s.
Further northwest, some low clouds and dense fog formed over the Peoria metro northeast along the Illinois River valley a few hours ago, but recent observations at Peoria and Lacon are back up over a mile and the low clouds will erode soon. Temperatures will trend milder, climbing a little above normal today, as low-level flow turns more southerly and increases on the back side of the surface ridging. Upper level ridge over the MS river valley at sunrise Sunday, will shift east over IL by 18Z/noon on Sunday and into the Ohio river valley by 6 pm Sunday.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. The light winds from the high pressure has allowed patchy fog to develop across parts of the area. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as the high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure is centered over northeast Arkansas at this time. The high is expected to move east tonight reaching northeast Tennessee by Sunday morning. With the high to our east on Sunday, south winds will start to bring milder air into the region. Temperatures will be warmer than today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Sunday night, a cold front will being moving across the central and southern plains.
As an upper level ridge translates downstream of the CWA toward the Great Lakes region a broad upper trough will become situated over the western CONUS. Expect a colder day on Sunday as a result of the lower 500mb heights, though conditions should remain dry.
/issued 933 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/ Removed fog/freezing fog mention this morning. /issued 442 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/ Although the fog and freezing fog has been slow to develop very far west yet, there are some low visibilities across northeast Oklahoma and the HRRR is still somewhat aggressive in fog formation across the far northeastern portions of the forecast area through sunrise. At this time, we will let the freezing fog advisory continue where it is currently located and continue to watch the trends.
A surface cyclone will begin over Colorado and then rapidly intensify as the upper level system ejects into the plains. Given the strong mid level winds, any surface based convection that develops will rapidly move into cooler low level air ahead of the dryline so that surface based severe storms are not likely. The warmest temperatures Sunday will be immediately behind the pacific cold front/dryline, with stratus keeping temperatures lower in Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Cooler air will move into western Kansas in the wake of the system and persist for a few days as deep upper level troughing persists across the central and northern plains.
216 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 One more quiet night with upper ridging remaining in place across the Plains, ahead of The trough now on the west coast. This trough should move into the Rockies tonight, with diffluent flow aloft beginning to spreading over the area by daybreak Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure will build down from the Ozarks/Mid- Mississippi Valley with northeast winds around 10 knots. This will help provide dry air in the low levels to keep conditions at VFR levels. and upper ridge remains west of the area. Sunday night through Saturday Weather will become unsettled after Sunday as upper level trough approaches the area.
The slower eastward progression of the upper trough near the west coast will result in a dry forecast for SW Idaho and most of SE Oregon today. Pops will be lowered accordingly, with only a mention of isolated showers in far western Harney County this afternoon along the leading edge of the trough. Showers will decrease Sunday afternoon as the trough pushes rapidly to the east. Temperatures will be warmer with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A cold front accompanying the trough will move through the region tonight. Temperatures will be 5-15 degrees cooler, with highs in the 30s and 40s.
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A cold front will move off the coast this morning. High pressure will pass through from the west this weekend.
GFS is much drier in the low levels, and fails to saturate. As the initial wave of the upper trough lifts northeast through the area, expect a band of showers to lift from the southwest to the northeast. The cold front aloft swings north quickly on Sunday night and still indications for enough instability that we could here a few rumbles of thunder.
311 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 High pressure is creeping southeast through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This diagnosis places a cold frontal boundary across central Florida, demarcating a fresh batch of continental air. Thereafter, high pressure will consolidate and broaden across the western-north Atlantic.
1036 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016 Current surface map shows weak trof across the western Dakotas. Upper level ridge located across the northern plains with mid/high clouds across the forecast area. Another warm day across the area as low level thermal ridge. Upper ridge breaks down tonight with strong trof approaches the Rockies. The upper trof moves into the northern plains Sunday. As upper low closes off, best chance of precipitation will be along eastern portion of forecast area Sunday night.
942 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016 Flat ridging in place today and will provide abundant sunshine and another mild day. Through this afternoon will see riding continue, as the main ridge axis continues to move east. Late tonight and into tomorrow, a trough will begin to move in. Amounts will light, a couple of inches in the high terrain, with a dusting to an inch in the foothills. Sunday night as the low starts to deepen, winds will increase out of the northwest across the area.
South winds returning over a larger portion of the western counties will help reduce the diurnal range with warmer mins tonight, while NE winds and a few pockets of partial clearing over eastern counties keep tonights mins closer to persistence. Satellite imagery indicates a nice subtropical plume of mid to upper level moisture spilling into TX from the Pacific which should enhance the production of streamer showers Sunday into Sunday night as surface winds increase in advance of a deepening upper trough to the west. The SW flow pattern aloft should also increase mid level warming, so while we do not expect to see a good chance of deep layer convection through Sunday night, a few storms could form along the Pacific front or along a prefrontal trough should one develop overnight.
WV imagery shows our region under weak nw flow aloft, downstream of amplified upper ridge over the central CONUS. Upper ridge will be quickly forced ewd as a strong upper trof moves into the Intermountain West. First of several embedded impulses will eject Sunday, and bring sct convection to our nwrn areas along an associated cold front.
Tonight will see continued push of high clouds toward the region as upper level trough and upper level jet energy approaches by 12z Sunday. With warmer thickness overnight expect lows to once again remain mild for this time of the year.
Winds will start to turn back around to the southeast and south overnight as high pressure moves off to the east and then strengthen on Sunday under a tightening pressure gradient.
Winds just now beginning to respond to this upper low and will do so increasingly though the night, helping to keep the boundary layer better mixed than last night. As upper low continues to lift northeast into the plains, moisture will continue to surge north with deepest becoming focused across eastern areas.
Wind will be increasing on Sunday as low pressure strengthens over the Great Plains.
Medium High clouds will continue into the evening, but will probably clear out for a time tonight before returning tomorrow ahead of approaching low pressure. It will likely be dry into the afternoon tomorrow ahead of approaching low pressure, with a little rain possibly arriving in the west by late afternoon.
358 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Sunday.
254 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A trough of low pressure will linger over the region tonight and Sunday.
335 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 We will see the breakdown of the 500mb ridge overnight into early Sunday as the large Pacific Coast trough moves east and stretches from Alberta down through eastern WY and the 4-corners region by late Sunday. The weak pressure gradient overhead, and very light winds will be on the way out as low pressure becomes better organized by daybreak Sunday. Expect the low to be set up from MT through eastern CO at 12Z Sunday and shift over the southern SD border by the end of the day. Kept the higher precip over our south and east for now.
307 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 High pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley will build over the local area tonight and Sunday. This high will shift to the Carolina Coast on Sunday night.
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A pressure ridge approaching from the west today will extend through the forecast area tonight and Sunday.
based on forecast light southerly winds and mostly clear skies have opted for lows in the lower 30s NE to middle 30s SW sections. Based on this arrival have opted for highs of 50 to 55 degrees with risk of low clouds and precipitation early may result due to evaporative cooling for highs at least a few degrees cooler for later shifts to reassess.
/DECREASE CLOUDS EAST, MENTION SPRINKLES WEST, WARMER/ Alongshore NEly low level winds over the Coastal Praries have contributed to increasing mixing and accelerated warming over areas generally east of Hwy 281. At the surface, a cold front was dissipating along the coast and winds behind the front from the north to northeast across our CWA. The upper pattern will transition quickly to a ridge today and tonight then a trough will move into the southwest turning the flow over Texas to southwesterly Sunday. A short wave trough will move through the pattern Sunday bringing a chance for showers to our CWA.
The remaining snow pack and cold ground in the Wadena/Park Rapids area and areas just south and east is keeping the low clouds and fog in tact. Southeasterly sfc flow increases Sunday but 925 mb temps are quite a bit cooler (2-3C vs 6C as today) and thus a tad cooler.
426 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 Sunshine returns Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.
Modest moisture transport ahead of this upper level wave will moisten up the low levels with drizzle possible in the morning. South winds will increase during the day as surface cyclone deepens with tightening pressure gradient. Mixing depth will be limited given moistening of the low levels preventing steep low-level lapse rates.
Temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler than today, with increasing cloud cover and southeasterly winds.