Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hi-res solutions overnight have certainly given some support to this line of thinking, pushing a great deal of the measurable precip threat southward, with exception of south central SD and the lower Missouri Valley. Ridge of high pressure settles in overnight, with mainly clear skies outside an increase in mid to high clouds into the James/Missouri river corridor. With fresh new snow cover and a period of lighter winds, have locally dropped the lows below zero over the lower Missouri valley.
This area will need to be monitored this afternoon as cold front drops into the area. A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening.
1228 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Aviation A low pressure system over Ontario will deepen as it pulls away from Michigan today. Meanwhile another wave of low pressure will track from the Central Plains through through the Ohio Valley this evening and off the Mid Atlantic on Thursday.
High pressure will build in the midwest Thursday and reach the region by nightfall.
As an upper level ridge of high pressure begins building in from the west this afternoon, strong northwest winds from the central mountains east will subside.
Drier and warmer weather ahead. Much of this period will be marked by change, with the current 500mb ridge moving into the western states and the dominant trough set up across much of the rest of the nation slowly shifting to the eastern half of the nation. By 06Z tonight the 500mb map should show a full ridge over the western half of the nation, and a trough over the east.
A cold front across southern Oklahoma, and approaching KSPS in Texas, will continue to move quickly southeast this morning. Winds will be generally from the north at 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30kt at most sites as a ridge of high pressure advances south into the southern Plains. The high will continue moving southeast, and winds will begin to shift back to southerly toward morning in northwest Oklahoma.
Chilly low level thermal trough in place through 12z Thursday. The LLVL RH progs show some pockets of drying into tonight though still some influence of the low level thermal trough in place. High pressure over the northern and central plains with low pressure over the east coast of the U. We'll be stuck between high pressure over the northern and central plains and low pressure to the east. We'll stay on the cloudy side through the day, with some clearing possible tonight as the ridge pushes in.
317 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Windy and colder conditions will arrive to the Midsouth this evening, behind a strong cold front passage. upper level trof lifts out to the Atlantic and upper level ridging builds over the plain.
343 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Snow will end from west to east into this evening as low pressure departs.
Cold front should move through right around 5-8z and once it does that look for winds to quickly veer around to the northwest with vsbys improving and low clouds slowly lifting.
242 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Cold air has poured into the region following last nights cold front. When you add in fairly gusty winds, fire weather concerns will be elevated over this period, especially across the warmer and drier western parts of the CWA.
Drier and cooler air, with a northwest to northeast surface flow was noted behind the front. Cooler tonight with closer to normal temperatures. Incrsg N/NW winds wl usher much cooler and drier air into the area. Light N/NELY winds were noted behind the fnt, with the assocd cooler air still lagging back acrs NRN AR. Predawn temps ranged fm the lower 40s to the mid 50s. Temps in the N wl be cooler, generally in the 60s. The real push of cooler air wl occur tngt and Thu.
A look at webcams from around those areas indicated some snow continued to fall but impacts in the high passes were minimal with roadways mainly wet. A cold front remains to our north in central Wyoming and is readily apparent when looking at the difference in temperatures across the state. Broad ridging builds in Thursday though some snowshowers may persist for the far northern mountains. The upper level ridge over the area Thursday moves east with southwesterly flow on the backside kicking in Thursday night.
A colder blast of air will arrive tonight causing highs Thursday only to reach the low 20s. A return to warmer temperatures will occur over the weekend with rain arriving once again. Impacts thus far appear very limited as air temperatures were in the low to mid 30s and surfaces a bit warmer than that. As the afternoon progresses, this will likely change due to a combination of cooling of the surface and also increased snow rates overcoming the warmer temperatures.
/issued 423 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/ Currently, A cold front is bisecting the CWA along a line from just south of Paris Tennessee back west to just south of Jonesboro Arkansas. Cooler air will funnel in behind the front overnight, and temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north to the lower 30 across the south.
Surface wise, a ridge axis is aligned on the Florida Straits while a cold front is taking shape from the tennesse valley into southeast Texas. A western Atlantic ridge lying across the Florida Straits will retreat southeastward as a cold front along the southeast Texas coast races eastward and across the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday, before passing through our entire county warning area Thursday night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Temperatures are once again setting records across the Rio Grande Valley as surface winds continue to veer to the southwest this afternoon, allowing for another day of intense heating off the high terrain of Mexico. Tonight, a deepening low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic with a trailing cold front moving southward into Deep South Texas. 12Z model guidance is trending cooler on temperatures for Thursday morning and afternoon with drier air than expected to move through.
Gusty winds out of the northwest will continue through the first 6 hours of the forecast for KAUS then a shift to the due north as a cold front pushes through around 23Z.
The cold front is progressing through the area and should be all the way through by 6 pm. Much cooler and drier air will move into the area overnight, bringing a substantial change in temperatures back to near seasonal normals by tomorrow morning.
Highs on Thursday are only expected to recover to around 10 to 15 above zero under a continued cold air mass in place across the western Great Lakes as a ridge of high pressure passes through the region.
215 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 A cold front will slide Southeast Overnight into Thursday morning.
215 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 The short wave trof currently centered in middle MO is moving east- southeast at a steady pace. Current indications are the short wave trof will be exiting the CWA at 00Z. We should see gradual northeastward clearing of the stratus this evening into the overnight hours, however some high clouds in the northwest flow aloft will be spreading into the area in the wake of the low clouds. Impressive cold air advection will bring rather chilly air into the region tonight as high pressure builds southeastward, with most locations seeing lows well into the teens. The combination of the cold high pressure system and clouds will result in a rather cold day, with highs on Thursday anywhere from 10-15 degrees below average.
Mountain areas will be favored, with the higher terrain of central Idaho and Baker County Oregon, with precipitation estimates ranging from around half an inch along the edge of the Snake River Valley to well over two inches over the higher elevations. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer on Thursday, and stay above freezing in most areas overnight. Significant rain and warming is expected in all areas tonight and especially Thursday as the next Pacific warm front comes in.
344 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Cold front this afternoon has pushed south of the area.
Ridge will build over the Baja and Western Mexico with the ridge axis extending north through the 4 corners and along the west side of the Rockies. At the same time L/W trough will deepen over the east coast. This will provide more than enough forcing to get a good cold front through overnight tonight. By this weekend though look for temperatures to moderate and moisture to begin to return as the high pushes off the coast and into the Atlantic.
246 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 An area of high pressure, currently over the region, will bring cold temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits below and low teens below zero.
341 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 A cold front is bisecting the state from roughly Alexandria to Jasper, TX at this hour. The front, which is not expected to produce much more than just broken cloud cover, will continue to sink to the south this evening and tonight ushering in cooler and drier air for Thursday.
The weak cold front continues to make progress slowly moving south over AR, and was from TXK to south of LIT to east around MEM. Clouds had cleared, and behind the front, drier and cooler air, and a northwest to northeast surface wind flow was noted. Aloft, the upper low pressure through continues to push east taking the storm system with it.
While the highest QPF and resulting snow is still north of the forecast with this wave, it should still be able to produce amounts of generally less than an inch north of line from roughly Rockport to Atlanta in Macon county. Temperatures today may also be several degrees cooler than previously forecast so have generally cooled things down a few degrees. This change generally keeps areas north of the river below freezing. Once these systems push east of the area, cold high pressure will move into the area with Thursday morning lows in the low to mid teens. That high pressure should quickly slide to the east of the area by Thursday afternoon.
A cold front is expected to move through overnight with light and variable winds shifting to the north late and picking up during the day. VFR conditions with veering winds will occur today as a weak prefrontal trough moves into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The passage of a cold front tonight will continue the veering wind trend and VFR likelihood. Otherwise, the approach and passage of a prefrontal trough today will have the ability to create a second consecutive day of record high temperatures. Relief will come in the form of a cold front passage around midnight tonight, which will knock overnight low and daytime high temperatures down a few degrees but still prevailing at well above normal levels. Relatively dry air will prevent any precipitation from developing despite the trough and frontal passages.
A warm front will be pushing northwards tonight allowing for snow to change to freezing rain in the valleys of western Montana. Thankfully there will be snow on the ground for most places and the freezing rain could get soaked up.
Drier and cooler air, with a northwest to northeast surface flow was noted behind the front. Cooler tonight with closer to normal temperatures. Light N/NELY winds were noted behind the fnt, with the assocd cooler air still lagging back acrs NRN AR. Predawn temps ranged fm the lower 40s to the mid 50s. Temps in the N wl be cooler, generally in the 60s. The real push of cooler air wl occur tngt and Thu.
Increasing S-SW flow this evening and tonight to produce moisture pooling of warm dewpoint airmass over cool shelf waters ahead of an approaching cold front creating areas of dense sea fog, mainly from the Tampa Bay area northward through Cedar Key. Strong and fast moving vort lobe to push isolated-scattered showers through the NE Gulf and Nature Coast overnight around C FL by daybreak to SW FL after sunrise, well ahead of the cold front. By Thursday afternoon NW flow aloft brings a cooler and drier seasonal airmass into the region on breezy NW-N winds.
A cold front will move through the area this evening/tonight with winds shifting around to a northerly direction. Winds will shift to west and northwest today ahead of a cold front moving into the region tonight. A prefrontal trough will push through the region today, shifting winds to the west/northwest, and bringing drier air into the region. Expect highs today to reach the lower 90s across much of the region. A return closer to normalcy will come as a cold front moves through the region tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees cooler (though still well above normal), with highs in the 70s across the region.
/issued 1041 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/ As of 1630z, the cold front was just north of the Interstate 30 corridor and continues to make steady progress southeast. Farther north, behind the front, the strong northwest winds should bring colder air and keep temperatures much cooler.
1157 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Low pressure will track north of the region Today. High pressure will return Tonight. Low pressure will track off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday morning and pass east of the Gulf of Maine Thursday afternoon. High pressure will then build in from the west later tonight. May see orographic snow showers in cyclonic flow for Fri with skies bcmg moclr at night as high pressure builds east. Excellent rad'l cooling expected on Fri night and cannot rule out mins arnd -25F for cooler locales in the North Woods.
1114 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 A cooler/colder air mass will spread southeast during this time.
256 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Cold air advection accompanying the low stratus continues to steadily keep temperatures below freezing this afternoon across northeast Kansas. An upper trough passing over the Great Lakes Region towards Thursday morning will increase high clouds from northwest to southeast. Highs Wednesday are slightly warmer given the sunshine with readings in the mid to upper 30s.
Cold northwesterly flow behind surface cold front that past through early this morning is providing mainly lake effect overcast this afternoon. Another mid level trough axis will swing across lower Michigan from late tonight through early afternoon Thursday.
Cold front has just about cleared northwest AR and extreme SE OK with a broad region of 5-6mb/3hr pressure rises noted in wake of the boundary.
1132 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 At 3 AM, a short wave trough was moving southeast through Iowa. Subsidence in the wake of the departing short wave trough will allow skies to gradually clear today. The high temperatures (13 to 23F) for today will be mainly this morning and only climb 1 to 3F this afternoon. For this evening, another short wave trough will move quickly southeast through the region.
355 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Cold air moving back into that state behind cold front that crossed the state today. Snow is expected late tonight into early Thursday morning with the highest accumulations likely in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
A cold front will continue to slowly move south with winds initially switching to northerly behind the front as already seen at KCDS. Winds will eventually shift back to southerly as a high pressure system moves well to the east of the area. A cold front which is making its way across western Oklahoma will back door across our area today filtering somewhat cooler and drier air into the area tonight as high pressure passes to our northeast tomorrow morning. Though a cold front will have pushed through the region on Wednesday, a quick return of southerly flow on Thursday will keep temperatures from cooling much. In fact, though we'll be around 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday, we'll still be around 10 degrees above climate normals.
216 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Dry high pressure was located over the Dakotas this afternoon. The high will be in the vicinity of the region tonight and the sky should remain fairly cloud free.
1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Ridge of high pressure a loft continues to build across the region this weekend. the thermal ridge is slated to run from the MN arrowhead southwest. Dew points currently progged to hold in the low to mid 60s. While the high pressure ridge is expected to keep any shower/storm activity at bay. models remain in good agreement with sliding an upper level trough across the top of the ridge Sunday night, flattening it out. At the sfc, an associated cold front will move into western WI overnight, gradually laying up from west to east across IA/northern IL while the mean trough departs east.
Upper level low pressure/+PV anomaly covers the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. It appears that the main surface front is well ahead of the upper trough axis, and has moved out of our offshore waters. However, the drier air remains back near the upper trough axis, so have analyzed a front delineating the airmass difference here (though there isn't really a reflection in the wind and pressure fields).
For tonight, a lee trough re-establishes with light east to southeast upslope winds. Most models keep us dry tonight and our temps this afternoon have been running around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. For Sunday, a lee trough deepens with southerly winds picking up to 15 to 22 mph and lots of sunshine. Highs warm also as upper level high pressure moves back into the Central Plains. Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday.
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Large ridge of high pressure aloft should make for a dry short term. A low level weakness under the ridge will retrogress westward across the region tonight and Sunday, and may generate an isolated shower here and there.
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure continues to extend into lower MI from the ese, sustaining a warm but dry airmass. This will pump more moisture into the region, so that our minimum relative humidity is expected to be around 30% for the low end instead to 25% like yesterday and today. Sunday night, the models are showing the typical type of northern Michigan cold front "precipitation split" over the region. This looks like it is due to the cold front outrunning the 500 mb jet streak in W Lake Superior.
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control this weekend.
330 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Dry and unseasonably hot southwest flow will continue tonight as a positively tilted area of high pressure aloft extends from the desert southwest into the central high plains. However, the center of the high sets up in the vicinity of Durango which prevents moisture from moving into the area.
402 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
1207 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Expect cool, wet and breezy weather across the Inland Northwest today as a deep low pressure system kicks inland. Warmer temperatures are expected for the first part of the work week.
1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Upper level high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the southern Rockies with a ridge extending into the Great Lakes region.
Convection should not be more than iso at best in nature with a broad upper level ridging pattern in place across our region though. Per some embedded weak mid to upper level disturbances in an otherwise broad upper level ridging pattern, and with also sfc diurnal heating influences becoming more established supporting sct cu field development approaching 18/18Z, at all terminals, expect sct cu fields to continue to develop or persist, with sct ac and patches of bkn ci possible also, through generally 19/03Z.
Strong 4-corners ridge will build further into the Great Basin region allowing temperatures to soar into the 90's and 100's across Nevada. This combined with the building 4-corners high will bring lighter winds overall to Nevada but some afternoon gusty winds are still possible across the higher elevations Sunday.
With the low dew points the heat index readings will not be any higher than temperatures today, but the nearly full sun with the temperatures will certainly give a warm feel to those outside today.
Linear band of convection translating west within a very moist airmass continues along the periphery of the upper-ridge.
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A backdoor cold front helped to lower the dewpoints today making it feel not as hot as the previous several days. This will allow for warmer dewpoints to return.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): H5 ridge has buckled well to the west, with a low pressure swirl moving southwestward across East Texas. This wraparound trough will continue drifting to the southwest through the next 36 hours. As the axis of the trough passes tomorrow morning, instability will increase aloft.
Rest of the CWA under subsidence with surface ridging over the region. Weak surface cape values in the 400-600 J/kg range in the Hill City/Norton areas and dewpts in the lower 60s. along with proximity to the trough could provide enough instability to trigger a few storms. H5 ridge fully entrenched over the Central Plains is going to give the region another day well into the 90s. At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas. High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the eastern U.
332 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Strong easterly flow associated with the high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states today continued to bring low level moisture into north and central GA this afternoon. High pressure and easterly low level flow will persist into the remainder of the short term.
346 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A large ridge continues to hold strong across the majority of the CONUS through the Mid-Atlantic states.
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Abnormally dry and cool high pressure will linger across the region through the weekend.
316 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure centered through the Great Lakes region continues to dominate the weather bringing low humidity and seasonable temperatures. The high will gradually retreat eastward over the next 24 hours resulting in slowly veering low level flow tonight and gradual increase in moisture, and continuation of tranquil weather. This coupled with the expansion and intensification of a large ridge aloft will result in the return of more typical summer heat and humidity.
254 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Low pressure will continue to produce breezy winds through this evening along with chances for showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 80 through this afternoon.
Lower freezing levels may also allow for a few cells to produce small hail this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Model guidance show a ridge axis stretching south of the region, and helping in keeping a generally southwest flow across South Florida through Sunday. Also, expect another round of heat index values climbing into the low 100s Sunday afternoon.
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 The inverted trough was indicated by the 19z surface analysis and IR/visible satellite imagery to be moving southwest into the Tennessee valley this afternoon. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies were indicated across the forecast area with temps in the low to mid 80s. Have trended closer to the slightly warmer NAM model temps for tonight's low temps.
101 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will build in for the weekend, bringing in dry conditions with a warming trend.
456 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Abnormally dry and cool high pressure will linger across the region through the weekend.
242 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 An upper low will become cut-off over the Atlantic ocean east of the Carolinas on Sunday. This will help pull cooler and drier air down the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and into Georgia and Alabama.