Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 (Issued 347 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022) Today through Monday: The cold front is moving through early this morning and and arctic air mass will move in behind it with temperatures falling through this morning and barely rebounding during the day with afternoon temperatures in the upper single digits to teens. Lift is weak with only some positive vorticity advection with the trough moving overhead. Winds will gradually weaken through the day as high pressure builds in.
335 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Latest GOES 16/17 Satellite imagery shows the 500mb trough that moved through yesterday positioned over the central US with the larger vorticity maxima approaching the Great Lake region. In the wake of this system, northwest flow sits over the CWA as upper level ridging begins to take place today.
316 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from just south of KSTL to just west of the PAH forecast area into north central Arkansas. Temperatures by sunset will be in the lower to middle 30s.
By daybreak the cold front will be exiting the area, and the CWA will be precipitation-free. Northwesterly flow will dominate the region behind the cold front, advecting cooler air into the region through the morning hours. Temperatures will fall slowly but steadily throughout the day, the high temperature having already occurred at most stations. Despite insolation from the clear/clearing sky, continued CAA along northwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels will keep Monday's high temperatures largely similar to today's.
Key Points: - Warmer temperatures still on track for much of this week - Chance of precipitation for the end of the work week Early this morning a mid level trough was moving eastward over the eastern Plains while an upstream ridge was moving into the western states. Cold high pressure will build southward into northeast Kansas today as cold air advection continues. Heights rise through much of the work week as a ridge builds into the southern and central Plains.
/issued 305 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ The cold front has made its way all the way through the CWA as of 2 AM (08Z) this morning and continues to push south into the Permian Basin and Big Country. As the upper trough that brought the cold front moves over the region today, high clouds will stream over the region within the southwesterly flow aloft.
Winds will decay with high pressure moving in, although KMAF could remain gusty into sunset before decoupling. (Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest and extends southwest towards New Mexico and Arizona. A cold front is moving southward across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. The cold front will continue moving across the area today with gusty north to northeast winds. The upper trough will move over the eastern part of the country on Monday.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has passed south of San Angelo as of 4 AM CST. Highs will be quite a bit cooler when compared to yesterday.
453 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE MVFR cigs are expanding across northeast NM and south toward KCQC early this morning in the wake of a cold front. Low clouds and light snow showers over portions of north central and northeast New Mexico this morning in the wake of a cold front should diminish by the afternoon. Highs overall will be cooler today, but especially in the east.
Dry and more seasonable for today through the mid portions of the upcoming week as high pressure is expected to dominate. The overnight has been quiet due to an upper level ridge across the western United States. The ridge axis will be directly overhead today with mainly sunny skies. Have kept patchy freezing fog in the forecast for the overnight. On Monday, the ridge will shift to the east.
Clear skies along and south of the I-90 corridor has allowed for valley temperatures to plummet into the low teens and single digits. A ridge of high pressure will amplify across the Northern Rockies this afternoon into Monday. Valley cold air pools will strengthen Sunday night into Monday as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead.
414 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 08z surface analysis had lee trough/developing warm front from central MT into eastern CO. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over the western CONUS.
/issued 447 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ Southwesterly flow aloft prevailed over the Midsouth early this morning, in advance of a partially-phased deepening neutral-tilt northern branch and a positively-tilted southern branch trofs. The northern and southern branches likely to consolidate into a deepening longwave trof over the eastern CONUS on Monday. In the interim, the positive tilt nature of the southern branch trof will dictate a relatively slow cold front passage through the Midsouth into early afternoon. After this wave passes to the east, the cold front will pick up speed through the afternoon, with stronger winds driving south through the delta.
1035 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Latest GOES 16/17 Satellite imagery shows the 500mb trough that moved through yesterday positioned over the central US with the larger vorticity maxima approaching the Great Lake region. In the wake of this system, northwest flow sits over the CWA as upper level ridging begins to take place today.
Wind speeds and gusts should peak late this morning and into early afternoon, as approaching high pressure will lead to a decreasing trend through much of the afternoon and evening.
Poor flight conditions through late tonight as a showers move across the area ahead of and along a cold front. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 47 25 45 27 / 40 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 41 21 40 25 / 50 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 24 41 20 41 24 / 40 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 36 16 36 21 / 70 0 0 0 0 TN.
252 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 Rain is gradually ending from northwest to southeast behind a cold front this afternoon. One thing we'll be keeping a close eye on is the potential for a flash freeze as temperatures drop below freezing. We'll gradually warm above the freezing mark by the afternoon, but not by much. Highs will only top out in the low to mid 30s across most of southern Indiana and central Kentucky, and upper 30s near the Tennessee border. At the surface, an expansive high pressure center keeps the weather tranquil while the Arctic air mass slowly modifies.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning has brought on some gusty north winds and good cold air advection. With the immensely dry conditions behind the front, decreasing winds, and clearing skies, the Big Country could see some radiational cooling with temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 20s. Further south, temperatures will remain closer to freezing as radiational cooling conditions will be much less ideal with more ample cloud cover and lingering winds. Surface conditions will be bone dry with dew points in the low teens to potentially single digits.
An upper level ridge becomes established over the western United States tonight and starts to move east into the central United States tomorrow. This ridging pattern begins the warming trend that will continue through most of the week. A corner of far north central Nebraska may remain in the 30s as it will be out of reach of the warm air and more under the influence of a cooler airmass to the northeast. Skies should be mostly clear through this time as most upper level moisture is pushed to the north of the ridge.
1203 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 Rain is expected until a cold frontal passage this afternoon, which will bring temperature back below freezing.
1258 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 A cold front will exit the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region bringing a return to below normal temperatures for the beginning of the work week.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle teens across the area, with our coldest temperatures remaining near the International Border. As the high builds eastward today these winds will eventually relax. Will see the upper level ridge over the intermountain west shift eastward bringing increasing thicknesses indicating warmer temperatures returning to the region.
137 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Only minor changes to the short term forecast this afternoon, with upper level ridging building into the region.
(This afternoon through Monday night) It is a much cooler day today across the region in the wake of a cold front that has now progressed through the Rio Grande Valley. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds that have made it feel much cooler for most of the day will continue to diminish through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening, with light winds then expected overnight. Despite this, continued cold advection and slowly veering winds will yield a cold night, with lows ranging from the lower 20s north to the 30s and lower 40s through the Rio Grande Valley.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest and extends southwest towards New Mexico and Arizona. A cold front is moving southward across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. The cold front will continue moving across the area today with gusty north to northeast winds. The upper trough will move over the eastern part of the country on Monday.
308 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 Upper level trough and associated low pressure system will move across the eastern U.
Monday Night Through Sunday Another cold night will be on tap Monday night with mostly clear skies and light winds as a ridge of high pressure drifts across the western Great Lakes region.
High pressure to the east this afternoon, will sink to the southeast Tonight. A cold front will move into region from the north northwest during the overnight. High pressure will build from the northwest through the day Monday, but showers will be slow to clear NE FL into the afternoon. The high on Monday will come in the late morning, with temperatures then falling through the afternoon.
Low clouds have departed but extensive high clouds continue until the trough axis passes later tonight. A midlevel perturbation on the upstream side of the trough axis will be accompanied by modest ascent/saturation and probably be sufficient for at least some snow flurries late tonight and tomorrow morning across roughly the northern half of the state.
1032 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Short term forecast will be dominated by the building H5 ridge across the Intermountain West, pushing the active flow well to the north. A weak wave will sweep through in the northwesterly flow this morning, bringing a slightly cooler airmass into the region today. WIth lighter winds and strengthening ridging aloft, any remaining cold pools in local basins will remain in place, especially for the Upper Green River basin and the Wind River basin, keeping temperatures from moderating considerably into Monday.
Surface analysis late this morning places a cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes back through the Ohio Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of Northeast Texas. /issued 447 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ Southwesterly flow aloft prevailed over the Midsouth early this morning, in advance of a partially-phased deepening neutral-tilt northern branch and a positively-tilted southern branch trofs. The northern and southern branches likely to consolidate into a deepening longwave trof over the eastern CONUS on Monday. In the interim, the positive tilt nature of the southern branch trof will dictate a relatively slow cold front passage through the Midsouth into early afternoon. After this wave passes to the east, the cold front will pick up speed through the afternoon, with stronger winds driving south through the delta.
The cold front is now working into our northwestern counties.
227 PM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures this week.
Lingering snow pack across central KS may lead to max temperatures struggling for the late afternoon hours as max temperatures stay a little below seasonal normals, as the Canadian high pressure area moves across the region. Light and variable winds are anticipated for the start of the work- week as the mid/upper ridge builds over the Rockies with northwest mid/upper flow extending downstream across the central plains. Both the ECMWF and the GFS agree on another cool down via a strong cold front moving south across the area on Fri.
An upper trough was advancing towards CA from the eastern Pacific with southerly return flow developing ahead of it. The upper trough will gradually lose amplitude while progressing through the region on Monday.
The surface cold front was entering southern middle TN into far northwest AL at this hour. Sharply colder air and blustery winds will continue tonight with lows dropping into the lower 20s in southern middle TN and the northwest fringes of north AL, with upper 20s further southeast. Highs will only reach the 40s for valley areas, and perhaps the upper 30s atop the highest Cumberland Plateau locations. High pressure will slide southeast into the OH valley Monday night behind a "clipper" and basically merge with the existing high over the southern and southeast U. This will maintain cold air in our area, so expect another night in the lower to middle 20s followed by highs again in the 40s for valleys and upper 30s to around 40 atop the highest plateau areas.
1030 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE In the wake of last night's cold front, MVFR cigs are lingering across east central to northeast New Mexico. Low clouds and light snow showers over portions of north central and northeast New Mexico this morning in the wake of a cold front should diminish by the afternoon. Highs overall will be cooler today, but especially in the east.
An upper ridge moving in from the coast will keep clear skies over the area today. If any larger area of fog/stratus does form it will likely be across northern Malheur county and the lower Treasure Valley.
The ridge will be at its strongest on Monday, but then through the rest of the week a few weak disturbance will move through the ridge and weaken it, but not totally break it down.
It will be getting colder with lows mostly in the lower to mid 20s by sunrise on Monday. Look for lows in the lower 20s and highs lower 40s, except a few degrees colder along the Plateau.
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Another strong cold front has moved through the area overnight with gusty north winds that will continue through the day.
1245 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending from the Desert SW through the Pac NW, with northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains.
256 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
A cold front has pushed south of our region and is now moving into the middle Texas coast. Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in the Hill Country to the lower 40s in the coastal plains.
High pressure will be centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday. Temperatures will drop Monday evening back below zero before the high starts to pull away and southwesterly flow increases late.
The upper level pattern will start out behind dominated by the large upper level low over Hudsons Bay that will place the region under a northwest flow. Despite the potential passage of a couple of short wave troughs in the first part of the week, these look to have little sensible impact on the weather with high pressure initially dominating the area followed by a dry cold front passage. By the end of the week, the models are suggesting the northwest flow pattern will start to flatten out with a long wave trough coming across western Canada and extending down into the Rockies.
An upper trough was advancing towards CA from the eastern Pacific with southerly return flow developing ahead of it. The upper trough will gradually lose amplitude while progressing through the region on Monday. High pressure remains overhead with mostly clear skies.
Winds are quickly changing direction, becoming northwesterly to northerly as a cold front passes through the area, and will increase in speed through the afternoon to between 10 and 20 kts, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts possible. /issued 1000 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ The progression of today's cold front introduces a handful of complications to the details of the near term forecast resulting in some discrepancy among models. As of 16Z, several sites across deep east TX and NW LA have begun to climb into the low 70s, indicating more of a warming trend ahead of the front than previous consensus depicted, with increasing peeks of sunshine.
An upper level low will pinch off from the flow over southeast Arizona.
Morning sounding indicates a pretty good dry layer will need to be overcome, but the trough is producing snow currently in the Northern Plains. High pressure looks to be overhead at least the first half of the night Monday night, and with snow cover over the entire area, I'll continue to support the cool end of guidance, with lows in the -5 north to +5 south Monday night.
Winds will diminish this evening as surface ridging builds from the north, with excellent radiational cooling conditions setting up for the overnight hours.
A large positively-tilted upper- level trough is currently located over the north-central Plains. Its elongated axis extends from the base of the trough (over Wisconsin/Illinois) southwestward towards Arizona. Throughout the remainder of the period, the large trough will continue shifting eastward.
Another battle in store in the saga that is the wedge vs warm front, with the warm front situated on a line from Newnan to Covington over to Gibson.
19Z Surface analysis places an arctic cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes region back through the Ohio Valley, Middle Tennessee, North Mississippi, and into Louisiana. Rain has diminished across the Mid-South this afternoon as cold high pressure is building behind the front. The aforementioned cold front will continue to push away from the region tonight as cold high pressure continues to filter into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
353 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 High pressure will build into the area bringing a return to below normal temperatures for the next couple of days. Once the high moves east, southerly flow will allow temperatures to rise above normal for mid to late week. High pressure will start to nose into the area but there will still be some pressure gradient. The high will build into the forecast area during the period.
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 Quiet weather across the High Plains with early morning satellite imagery showing just some patchy mid clouds along with some lower stratocumulus from the sandhills into the panhandle of Nebraska. Expect today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees with an afternoon breeze to contend with. However with a high amplitude upper trof over the western US starting to push eastward, we can expect quiet weather to continue as a trend toward warming temperatures becomes established. Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions with a notable warming trend as the western ridge takes control of our weather through midweek.
(This evening through Monday) Breezy north winds continue behind a cold front early this afternoon. Morning lows should range from the low teens to mid 20s from NW to SE respectively. A clear, calm and beautiful day is expected Monday on the eastern fringe of a mid to upper ridge.
1133 AM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 08z surface analysis had lee trough/developing warm front from central MT into eastern CO. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over the western CONUS.
1115 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front has passed south of San Angelo as of 4 AM CST. Highs will be quite a bit cooler when compared to yesterday.
403 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Quiet weather is in store this afternoon and Monday as a ridge continues to sit over the west and the Central High Plains remains under northwest flow. An upper level ridge will start out this part of the forecast.
Low level cold air will be shunted off to the east by Monday, resulting in milder weather for the high plains.
On Monday night, lows will likely be in the evening with steady or rising temperatures later after midnight as high level clouds stream in from the west along with a Pacific/warm front moving across the cwa through the night.
700 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 A cold front will depart offshore tonight with brisk conditions to follow throughout Monday. High pressure should provide dry weather for most of this week. Confidence is high on temperatures falling below freezing tonight with breezy conditions on Monday. A cold front continues to track eastward over the Mid Atlantic to bring light to moderate rain at this time. Colder and drier air should arrive overnight, and any lingering rain could switch over to snow showers west of the Blue Ridge. However, the highest winds aloft appear to stay just to the north and does not quite get to advisory criteria across Bath and Greenbrier counties.
424 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending from the Desert SW through the Pac NW, with northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains.
Quiet weather remains in place and high pressure continues to amplify over the region. The only concern will be the potential for some patchy fog/freezing fog tonight but even this looks less likely than it did yesterday.
KALS could see some patchy ground fog along the river bottom towards sunrise and have included this in grids though confidence in its development is on the low side. Temperatures tomorrow will rebounding as lee troughing and increasing southerly flow returns to the region. Temperatures today have not warmed above freezing for these areas so suspect a pretty good snow cover remains which should get worked on tomorrow given the lee troughing and at least some degree of warming.
Latest MOS guidance is coming in much colder than our grids indicate, so blended towards this lower guidance and lowered the cold pools even more for lows tonight. We remain under northwest flow in the wake of yesterday's frontal/trough passage. High pressure will continue to build across the Intermountain West through the next 24 hours or so. Some energy left behind by the recent trough will attempt to form a Rex Block just to the south of us. But, it does look to clean the low to the south of us out as it moves through. Temperatures in our low valleys look to decrease tomorrow versus today according to latest model blends and this makes sense given recent inversions with high pressure aloft.
308 PM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 High pressure is building into the Mid Mississippi River Valley from the Northern Plains today. Light and variable tonight ahead of a weak low along with a clear sky will produce excellent radiational cooling conditions with lows dipping into the low to mid teens. The low will briefly turn the wind back to the south and southwest during the predawn hours of Monday morning. The low will move from southwest Iowa across northeast Missouri Monday Morning and into the Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon. The weak warm advection to the south of the low track will allow temperatures to warm into mid 30s to low 40s along and south of the I-70 corridor in Missouri and the I-64 corridor in Illinois.
412 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Broad upper trough encompasses the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, with a high amplitude upper ridge parked over the western 1/3.
Temperatures are mainly in the 30s F in most areas right now with teens and 20s F in the high valleys/parks. Models show an upper ridge to move into the CWA overnight and Monday. The low level winds look pretty weak with normal diurnal patterns expected.
Currently, a thin line of showers associated with a cold front is along the coast and will continue to push offshore over the next several hours. By tomorrow as high pressure across the Central US begins to push east, our winds become more northeasterly and continue to enhance CAA across southeast Texas.
312 PM MST Sun Jan 9 2022 Quiet weather is in store this afternoon and Monday as a ridge continues to sit over the west and the Central High Plains remains under northwest flow. An upper level ridge will start out this part of the forecast.