Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The left exit region of the jet and a weak upper level trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to far eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and western Nebraska. It will be cooler Wednesday with readings in the lower to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Cooler surface temperatures and slight warming aloft will help to stabilize the airmass Wednesday. Wednesday night a large upper-level trough of low pressure will cover much of the central and eastern U. with an upper-level ridge of high pressure stretching from the Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
Lower level ridging is also nearby, while a weak mid level trough is to our northwest and a weak cut off low aloft is centered over western Cuba. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather. Weak ridging will run across Keys waters overnight, keeping winds light, initially south, shifting southeast.
A cooler day is expected tomorrow and instability will be limited if not zero for most of the day, so showers are more likely than thunderstorms tomorrow.
The area is currently situated downstream of an upper level trough with southwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will be cooler with overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A better chance for SHRA/TSRA will occur Wednesday afternoon which will be aided by low level moisture convergence, and upper level diffluence downstream of an amplifying trough. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 80 63 79 / 30 50 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 79 62 76 / 10 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 61 79 61 76 / 10 40 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 78 58 74 / 10 30 60 40.
With temperatures reaching into the low 90's for much of the area Wednesday and dewpoints in the 50's, showers and thunderstorms continue to be a threat.
828 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019 High pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool weather into Wednesday. The longwave pattern will begin to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday as a relatively strong jet core passes the upstream inflection point and deepens the trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
219 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front currently across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push southeastward through the morning, sweeping any lingering storms to the south along with it. Behind the front, a drier and slightly cooler airmass will produce pleasant weather through tomorrow for most of the area.
Coulston Fair weather continues, as temperatures trend warmer for Wednesday and Thursday. Updated 1115 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 (06/12 06Z TAFs) VFR conditions are expected at the KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, and KHLN terminals throughout the duration of the 1206/1306 TAF period as upper level ridging builds in over the Northern Rockies tonight/Wednesday morning and is then gradually broken down Wednesday evening/night. - Moldan /ISSUED 510 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ Scattered clouds will thin and dissipate overnight as the upstream ridge continues to amplify. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over Southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon as the ridge begins to weaken and a weak mid-level wave cuts through. Temperatures continue to climb Wednesday and Thursday as warmer air arrives from the west, reaching 10 to 15 degrees above average.
/ISSUED 956 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ Upper trof axis is currently stretched from ne Tx into the Valley. Locally, impulses embedded closer to the base of the trof are contributing to some light ese-moving precip across the area.
255 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows weak cold front across southern SD, with high pressure centered over ND. Ridge is in place across the west coast. Relatively nice weather is expected for the next couple of days as high pressure moves south-southeast across the Plains. Warmer air will build into the area for late week as the west coast ridge slowly moves east over the Rockies and eventually weakens as it moves over the high plains.
247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The near-term forecast is relatively quiet as will be in a cooler post-frontal airmass through the day today. Highs are also only expected to reach the low to mid 70s today. Dry conditions continue through the day on Thursday as we see rising heights aloft and the upper trough continues eastward. Rain chances return late Thursday night as the low-level jet kicks up isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Thursday will get off to a cloudy start across the eastern half of the CWA before high pressure brings clearing skies across the board by afternoon. Despite anomalously low upper heights and strong CAA, think June sunshine heating the dry airmass will yield afternoon highs a few degrees above guidance in the lower 70s.
A cooler day is expected tomorrow and instability will be limited if not zero for most of the day, so showers are more likely than thunderstorms tomorrow. Thursday should be warmer as the influence of the Great Lakes trough begins to shift to the east.
The upper trough was well east of the area extending south from eastern Minnesota into eastern Kansas. An amplified northwest flow in place today and an upper ridge extends across the Great Basin. Dry conditions will persist Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper ridge in the West flattens out and the upper flow across the Central Plains becomes more zonal and weak height rises occur. Highs Thursday will will warm to the lower 80s west to the upper 70s in the east. Meanwhile surface dewpoints will rise into the lower 50s as southerly winds increase.
FGC Previous discussion: An upper ridge over the Pacific NW will gradually move in, but flatten over the area late Thursday and NW flow is reintroduced into the weekend. The upper ridge will provide a warming trend but will break down as thunderstorms move across Alberta/Sask and central Montana late Thursday that could bring in a strong tstorm.
312 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, which is providing the dry air as dewpoints range in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be a little warmer today, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows for Thursday morning mainly the lower to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 south of the interstate. Another cool front with slightly cooler and drier air expected to move through late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Still can't rule out a few thunderstorms near KAMA for the next several hours behind a southward advancing cold front. /Issued 617 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ A cold front will push south across the area this evening. The upper level short trof and weak cold front are forecast to move through the region this evening and tonight.
Approaching upper trough will help increase convection across western zones this morning. Rain will decrease tonight but will likely overnight as upper trough moves into the se pushing a cold front into se Ga.
Dry air advection and the influence of more mid-level ridging will occur Wednesday and lead to drier conditions than today.
At the start of the period, an upper low spins over eastern Canada and zonal flow extends across much of the CONUS.
328 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite imagery this morning revealing large scale flow consisting of a broad upper trof covering the eastern half of the CONUS with a well amplified ridge over the western half. Also, several vort max were riding down front end of upper ridge and spread out across the the Central Plains/Mid MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northern WY.
/issued 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas tonight, from the north.
As the jet surges SE from the western Dakotas into primarily the central third of KS as the night progresses, the N/S oriented upper-deck trough would deepen considerably. As the associated cold weak cold front, which this afternoon extends from NE Nebraska to SW KS, continues its SE push moisture advection would increase, especially elevated as 850-MB theta-E advection ramps up considerably. The rapidly strengthening mid-upper deck trof would cause the cold front to accelerate later this evening. This would force the lower-deck ridge axis E of KS that would operate in tandem with a deepening trof situated along the Front Range to enable moisture to quickly return Thu Night. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward across the region with winds switching to the north.
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 An upper trough is over the central part of the country with northerly flow over the area. A cold front will push into the area today but will not have much of an impact on temperatures as highs today will be similar to yesterday.
As this high then migrates east of the area Thursday night, the overall pattern begins to change.
By later tonight, the primary cold front will sweep through the area with any shower/thunderstorm activity coming to an end. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, leading to a mostly sunny and cool day with highs much below normal - from the mid 60s to near 70. Winds will drop off on Wednesday night, and it will be a very cool night with lows in the lower to mid 40s. By Thursday, high pressure begins to shift off to the east, and with a southerly flow returning to the region, it will be a warmer day with temperatures back into the 70s.
A cold front has moved into the northwest part of the forecast area. As the afternoon goes on, there will be a few less of the lower clouds and the thiner cirrus will allow for a little more heating and therefore the CAPE should increase. In addition, a cold front has moved into the northwest part of the area and expect it to continue to move to the southeast during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. With the cold front and a little heating, expect there to be a few thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and continue into the evening. The better chance for thunderstorms will be in the east/southeast as the front moves into the area with a little time after the showers move out of the area, along with the lower clouds.
A cold front currently in the Panhandle will move through today bringing NW-E wind shifts, around 12Z-13Z HOB and 16Z-17Z FST.
/issued 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/ The June 12-13 00 UTC TAF discussion follows: A cold front with a northerly wind shift is expected to progress from north to south tonight.
High pressure ridge will be shifting east today with a weak low pressure area nearing the coast of northern California. It will still be quite hot on Thursday for most areas with near record temperatures possible, although areas just east of the Cascades will see slightly cooler readings. On Thursday winds will increase across much of the lower elevations as cooler air moves through the mountain gaps and passes.
Mid and upper level ridging builds weakly over our area. After quite an unseasonably cool day yesterday, a warming trend begins today and continues into Thursday as the thermal ridge tries to get established. Also, heating and upslope flow of that moist airmass may generate isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Serranias del Burro to the Davis mountains this afternoon. It is likely that none of this reaches our area as steering flow is weak and they will encounter capping warm mid level temperatures as they move off the higher terrain.
High pressure will result in tranquil weather along with a slight warming trend through midweek. A high-amplitude ridge is in place over the West Coast states through western Great Basin this evening, with Utah remaining under a dry and stable northwesterly flow aloft. Farther upstream, an upper low is noted off the California coast, with a separate trough off the British Columbia coast. The ridge axis will shift to near western Utah tomorrow afternoon as the aforementioned low off the California coast starts to get absorbed into the flow ahead of the storm off the British Columbia coast. However, models indicate an increase in midlevel moisture as well, which may be enough to generate isolated high-based convection off the higher terrain, most likely over northern and central Utah.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
A veer of upper flow to the southwest is underway this morning over the Upper Ohio Valley in response to a digging trough over the Midwest. probabilities were thus maintained, although any flood threat looks minimal given expected convective element speed, lack of sustained moisture convergence with the low developing north of the area, and with sub 60F sfc dewpoints and mid level dry slotting eventually compromising precipital water values. Mid level lapse rates with the advance of that thermal trough will have to be monitored.
In the wake of this departure, an attendant cold front will begin sliding down the Florida peninsula before stalling across Central Florida.
Scattered high level cirrus clouds are encroaching from the west underneath the approaching high pressure ridge. High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through tomorrow, allowing for the hottest weather of the year so far.
A deep upper low pressure trough will move into the western Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. Highs on Thursday will only reach the lower to middle 60s.
304 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Spring is not quite done yet with us but it will be trending much warmer this weekend. A cold front currently moving through the region early this morning was initiating some convection mostly across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. This cold front is expected to make its way through the region by daybreak or so and will advect in drier surface air. Surface ridging behind the front will essentially kill any instability leading to a poor environment for thunderstorm continuation.
By afternoon, the area will be on the back side of the upper trough and in a steep lapse rate environment with the cool temps aloft.
A frontal system and upper trough is expected to move across the area on Wednesday into Thursday.
449 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Under mostly clear skies and light and variable winds, temperatures range from the mid 70s in portions of Big Pine Key to the lower and mid 80s in Marathon. On our marine district, the close proximity of a ridge axis is resulting in variable winds ranging from calm to 6 knots at Smith Shoal Light.
Still, with weaker mid level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s, do not anticipate any strong storms today, and even thunder is questionable at best.
Satellite imagery also shows a general decrease in cloud cover as well associated with drier air advecting in from MT with high pressure currently located in northcentral WY. Strengthening upper trough is crossing the region at this time, with the main upper wave now crossing the CWA. Precipitation will decrease through mid evening as diurnal cooling sets in and large scale ridging builds in from the west. Drier weather is then expected through Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging builds in. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s tomorrow, then warmer air will push in for Thursday, with highs reaching the 70s to low 80s.
Showers and MVFR ceilings will linger over the coastal plains early this morning as the mid level short wave trough moves through south Texas.
Leaned toward the higher end of guidance given the overall low bias as of late. The one potential exception to the previously mentioned quiet weather would be a weak wave sneaking down the back side of the exiting trough.
High pressure will build over the area through the middle of the week with the hottest temperatures so far this year expected through Thursday.
236 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will slide to the east and pass overhead tonight. Winds going calm as high pressure passes overhead tonight. High pressure continues to drift eastward through the day. Expect temps to be about 4-5F warmer than Tues over the NW, but just a deg or two cooler in the SE where they will lack the downslope warming of Tues.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase overnight across northeast OK and over northwest AR toward morning as a cold front moves through.
Eyes now turned out west where an upper trough is digging and a cold front lurks. This upper trough will work rapidly east today. By 00z, upper trough and a SFC front nearing the MS river. With the upper trough axis not officially east of the area until mid-morning, a few showers may linger overnight. warm front is set up across the OH valley and there is expected to be a good bit of activity along it. This warm front does seem to stay well north but the mid-south will be in axis of good moisture advection through that period.
259 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will crest over the region early today before shifting offshore. Low pressure tracks up the East Coast on Thursday spreading rain through New England.
The cold front was located just north of HOB to just of CNM and satellite shows IFR CIGS/FG around MAF/INK moving n towards HOB. /issued 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ An upper trough is over the central part of the country with northerly flow over the area. A cold front will push into the area today but will not have much of an impact on temperatures as highs today will be similar to yesterday.
620 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front has moved through all three TAF sites with lingering convection now to the south and southeast of the terminals. /issued 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ Spring is not quite done yet with us but it will be trending much warmer this weekend. A cold front currently moving through the region early this morning was initiating some convection mostly across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. This cold front is expected to make its way through the region by daybreak or so and will advect in drier surface air. Surface ridging behind the front will essentially kill any instability leading to a poor environment for thunderstorm continuation.
While temperatures inland should cool by a few degrees as the ridge axis shifts eastward, moderate Heat Risks will likely persist in the interior valleys again this afternoon, especially given limited cooling this morning.
Highs will run in the mid to upper 80s with some interior and southern locations reaching the lower 90s. Frontal boundary currently over panhandle in conjunction with ridge axis over southern peninsula continues SW flow across the waters.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 62 77 54 / 40 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 61 74 51 / 40 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 60 75 51 / 40 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 57 73 47 / 30 50 40 10.
623 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will crest over the region early today before shifting offshore. Low pressure tracks up the East Coast on Thursday spreading rain through New England.
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will keep the region mostly dry today. The upper trough will also keep temps cool with highs not reaching 70 in most areas. Upper flow will shift from one dominated by an upper trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge to the west. Over time, the western CONUS ridge breaks down, while the upper trough to the east pinwheels in place.
416 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Models have had a tough time with sharpening the long wave trough to the west of the area. The trough is digging a bit and winds are sharpening in the base of the trough which is forcing deeper moisture northward. The closer to the coast and south of the coast, the higher the rain chances.
High pressure over Nevada today slides east tonight. Ridge axis over Nevada this morning slides slowly east as a weak trough approaches the California coast. Weak isentropic upglide in advance of California trough will expand the scattered-broken cirrostratus layer across western and northern Nevada today. As the ridge continues to slide east of Nevada tonight, there is some moisture convergence along the northern Nevada border for nocturnal showers during the overnight hours. Short wave moves across Nevada on Thursday with cooler air filtering across the state.
409 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will keep the region mostly dry today. The upper trough will also keep temps cool with highs not reaching 70 in most areas. Upper flow will shift from one dominated by an upper trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge to the west. Over time, the western CONUS ridge breaks down, while the upper trough to the east pinwheels in place.
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The synoptic setup has east central Florida in between Atlantic high pressure ridge and low pressure trough extending from the Great Lakes into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
High resolution models suggest a brief break in precipitation by midday, with additional thunderstorm development later in the afternoon ahead of a cold front.
It will certainly be cooler than normal given the cool airmass moving in and the steady 10-20 MPH northerly winds. The high pressure axis will work through the area tonight through Thursday with clear skies through the remainder of the period. Tonights lows will fall into the low to mid 40s, but it's likely a few spots will see upper 30s given calm and clear conditions. Low level flow begins to turn southerly tomorrow afternoon, so temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than today, with similar dew points.
608 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A cold front will move through the state today. with a cold front dropping SE through the state.
427 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 An upper level ridge is expected to remain centered over the Utah/Colorado state line through tonight with moderate northwesterly flow aloft across northern Colorado. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be rotating over the eastern half of the state with wind gradients shifting to an easterly direction by afternoon. The easterly flow will help to keep temperatures cooler and the airmass stable through the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop are expected to dissipate as they move eastward from the foothills, and encounter the cooler, more stable air on the plains. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal, but all in all, not too bad.
Building upper ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions today, with light winds. Heights will fall tonight and Thursday as a stronger Pacific jet flattens the ridge in place. Moisture will be a bit greater, but limited by a lack of advection up the high plains, and wind shear will remain relatively weak. Warmer temperatures over the coming days will increase the mountain snow melt.
318 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will result in tranquil weather along with a slight trend through midweek.
621 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite imagery this morning revealing large scale flow consisting of a broad upper trof covering the eastern half of the CONUS, with a well amplified ridge over the western half. Also, several vort maxes were riding down front end of upper ridge and spreading out across the Central Plains/Mid MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northern WY.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 62 77 54 / 40 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 61 74 51 / 40 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 75 51 / 40 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 57 73 47 / 30 50 40 10.
As upper ridging over the Pacific Northwest extends into the region, look for warming temperatures on Thursday with some places having high temperatures pushing 90 degrees. As the ridge breaks down late in the day with a cold front passing through, chances for showers and thunderstorms may increase.
A trough axis will continue to swing through the Mississippi River Valley today with a reinforcing cold front sliding into the region from the north. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s and no major changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. A few showers will be possible ahead of the cold front this evening in the Delta, but limited instability/ moisture will not support much in the way of thunderstorm potential.