Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1111 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Upper low was making its way northeast out of West Texas overnight. Local skies fairly clear save some cirrus that make its way west behind weak upper high to the northwest. Some mid and and high clouds should eventually reach mainly southeastern areas late today and tonight as the upper low takes a more easterly track. Low level temp trends for this afternoon show very similar temps, with again well above normal values with highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated and overnight lows close to normal highs for mid February. Upper level ridge will be in place on Saturday while low pressure deepens across the western high plains.
155 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will drift off the Southeast U. coast and allow a warm front to lift north across the southern Mid Atlantic states today and tonight. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. Expect generally clear skies through much of the night, although high clouds will be on the increase over our SW sections as an upper low now over OK/TX shifts into the middle and lower Miss Valley, spreading warm- advection high clouds into the forecast area from the SW. Expect lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with the cooler readings in the outlying areas.
132 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 During the next 24-36 hrs, we see Low pressure lift across the Red River valley, with associated moisture advecting northward/up the Mississippi valley, and chance cat pops spread across the Quad State tmrw. Altogether, the pcpn is light qpf, as the Low tracks across our southern border. Afterwards, high pressure ridging moves in.
1150 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will build across the region this afternoon and tonight. A weak low pressure system will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross northern Maine Saturday night. Low pressure will continue to slowly lift across the gulf of St. Gusty northwest winds will continue into this afternoon in the wake of the departing low and a ridge of high pressure building in from the west. Sat will begin with increasing cldnss as warm advcn well ahead of an Alberta clipper s/wv moves E across the region, with sn shwrs possible across Nrn ptns of the region Sat aftn and eve with the passage of a weak warm front.
1106 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 High pressure will bring clearing skies today along with seasonal temperatures. As a low-level ridge continues to build eastward into the region this afternoon and early evening, the clearing trend will also persist, with much of the forecast area seeing increased sunshine by early afternoon. Warming 850mb temperatures along with surface ridging will erode this cloud deck from southwest to northeast this morning. Tonight, a flat upper level ridge builds over the region as high pressure moves to the east coast.
343 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Upper low was observed via water vapor imagery rotating through Oklahoma, lifting mid level moisture into southeast Kansas. Ahead of this weak boundary, temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s while dewpoints mixed down into the lower 30s. For tonight, winds calm, becoming light and variable as a ridge axis drifts southward into northern KS. Potent, incoming upper trough across California will shift the upper low northeast and therefore increase cloud cover towards southeast Kansas Saturday morning. These clouds should dissipate as the low exits into Missouri during the afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies and light winds across the CWA. Highs may be slightly cooler, given the weaker winds, however still well above normal in the upper 60s.
High pressure over the Florida peninsula is producing fair weather this morning. Overnight temps tonight are expected to be 8-10 degrees warmer than what we saw last night. High pressure has set up over the eastern Gulf of Mexico allowing for perfect boating conditions today. An area of low pressure approaches the coastal waters on Saturday and will produce increasing chances of rain and thunderstorms through the day on Saturday. Winds will also be on the rise as they shift to the southeast through southwest around 10-15 knots ahead of the low pressure system.
227 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 Extremely mild conditions for this time of year, with highs 25 to 30 degrees above normal, and lows several degrees warmer than normal highs, will continue through the weekend.
1141 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017 A temporary rex block will continue over the Plains into the weekend with a cutoff cyclone moving slowly across the Gulf Coast and an upper-level ridge over the central and northern Plains. Along and ahead of the trough the surface to 850 mb flow will turn southwest allowing for good mixing within the 850 mb thermal ridge. This should allow for highs today to be 3 to 6 degrees warmer than we saw on Thu with record highs likely at KOMA/KLNK.
235 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 As high pressure moves off the east coast, a southwest flow of much milder air will develop by Saturday.
243 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 A warm front will cross through the area this afternoon.
140 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 First issue for today is the cold front dropping southeastward early this morning. Upper ridge exits MN/WI border late this afternoon, and first weak short wave arrives from the southwest.
Cannot rule out some drizzle overnight within patches of the low stratus cloud deck that will enshroud us. Our winds are expected to shift from the current northeasterly direction to southeasterly, which will usher in some much warmer air. The high- res models in general keep us dry after the morning low deck burns off, holding the main precip out of the area until late afternoon/early evening.
1230 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will bring a dry start to the New Year.
With plenty of near and below freezing temperatures in the higher valleys east and south of Tucson there may be some patchy ice as well where moisture lingers on the roads.
If the warmer GFS and NAM solutions verify, mixed precip would occur over the southeastern half or so of Upper MI, with decent snowfall NW. Winds look to turn NW late Tue as much cold air moves in beneath the upper trough. Temps may warm a little bit if the GFS is correct in showing a ridge passage Thu night and Fri. Southwest winds to 30 knots early this morning ahead of a low pressure trough will diminish by late morning/afternoon as the trough moves across Lake Superior. Another period of winds to 30 knots is expected Monday night into Tue with nw gales to 35 knots possible late Tue into Wed morning as low pressure deepens over the Upper Great Lakes and then moves off to the east. However, there is still uncertainty with the track and strength of the low.
With the warm front likely to remain well south of the forecast area, any severe potential will result from elevated instability associated with the cold core of the upper low as it swings across the far southeast corner of Oklahoma and into central Arkansas.
258 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Warm front pushes northeast tonight into Monday night.
Temperatures will drop below freezing in most if not all locations so freezing fog and maybe some freezing drizzle will develop. Best chance for freezing drizzle will be in the northeast area around McCook to Norton.
300 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 This afternoon, the high pressure ridge responsible for the quiet weather is moving out to the east coast. A couple of waves within the general trof over the southwest will drive the forecast through the next 24 hours.
A cold upper level trough across the northern Rockies through the Pacific Northwest will affect portions of the Great Basin during the early portion of the week. The associated cold front will sweep south into central Utah by Monday, bringing snow to the northern half of Utah. In addition, currently have clear skies above the valley gunk adding to the heating potential and should remain mostly sunny into the early afternoon before some clouds begin to develop as a trough from the northwest approaches. The advancement of this trough is somewhat slower than earlier 00Z model guidance, so have backed off on the onset of precip across northern Utah until late this afternoon along the Idaho border - which may still be too early - and this evening for the rest of northern portions of the CWA.
There should be enough moisture over the high mountains for a chance of snow in the mountains by late day and tonight. By late tonight, the next disturbance rotating around the large upper low spinning over the Pacific Northwest may brush the northern mountains. This should bring a little more light snow to the high country but any accumulation less than 2 inches, even in the favored areas north of Rabbit Ears Pass. Don't think cold airmass will infiltrate the northeast corner of the state, but for now kept a low chance of patchy freezing drizzle and fog over the far northeast to maintain consistency.
201 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 A well defined upper low INVOF SE AZ is moving e and will track across the CWFA overnight and mosaic radar shows -SHRA moving into far W TX. It still appears that the low will waste no time moving across CWFA. The window is brief but the highest elevations of the Davis/GDP Mtns could see some snow/sleet, less than an inch. Clearing skies in wake of the low and downslope winds Mon PM will support high temps that area approximately 5 degrees above normal. On Tue cold air will likely make a backdoor push into the n-ne CWFA and temps could be as much as 10 degrees cooler than they were on Mon.
By the early morning hours an increase in the low level moisture is expected with VCSH assigned to all Atlantic coast terminals at 06Z but not all that confident, with brief periods of MVFR ceilings possible after about 06z.
1239 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
An accompanying warm front will also lift north triggering an increase in showers and thunderstorms after midnight. 60F plus dewpoints will overspread into the southern and central portions of the Midsouth as the Low pushes in.
Backside of this has allowed rain to clear out for the most part but also has enhanced the low cigs and fog. Negative tilt to the trough through Mon evening along with strong southerly return flow points to increased chances for severe storms into Monday night. The main cold frontal boundary moves into West GA early Tues morning and pushes quickly east across the state by 12z to 15z. After the cold front moves east of the state.
Had a few slick spots in far western portions of the CWA early this morning, but didn't take too long for temps to rise above freezing, and currently sit with mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. At the surface, winds have gradually turned a bit more southeasterly with time, as high pressure slides further off to the east and low pressure over CO takes over as the primary feature. Admittedly am on the cooler side of things, with a larger area of FZDZ chances. Some models suggest that when those better chances come, temps are hovering near, if not above, freezing.
A quick and compact upper level low will continue to race across the southwestern US late this afternoon and then move across central Texas overnight. We will see strong lift from this low as it quickly transverses through the lone star state. An upper level jet is not exceptionally strong in advance of the low but increasing curvature to the jet will increase the upper level divergence over the region. Temperatures will cool a few Celsius degrees at 500mb as this trough passes over the area. Very strong subsidence will encompass the area tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the departing upper level trough.
The next impulse is the concentrated energy associated with the western cut-off low that is ejecting eastward into far west Texas this afternoon.
301 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will slide slowly into the area from the southwest early this week.
While the low-level stability will keep storms elevated across west Texas, the storms will organize into a line and eventually reach the rich moist Gulf air somewhere over the eastern half of our area. A few storms will through mid-morning Monday on the coastal plains, then high pressure will clear skies and bring a mild day followed by cool and calm conditions Monday night.
Also, models have trended a little farther south with the track of the low pressure system, and that could keep the main area of storms suppressed to our south.
1203 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will move east of the region today. High pressure will build in on Monday.
346 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight, and give way to an increasingly moist southerly air flow.
350 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will slide slowly into the area from the southwest early this week.
Mixing along the lee slopes will help keep temperatures warmer west of I-25 tonight. These winds will also help temperatures warm into the 50s, and perhaps a few low 60s across the lower elevations tomorrow. Mozley The last several runs of the extended models have been trending warmer for the first week of January.
Base of the trof over the Desert southwest is progged to move east and only slightly north as it moves into Arkansas late Monday afternoon. Warm air advection out ahead of this system streams moisture and isentropic lift into our area through the overnight and morning hours into Monday, so despite a warmer day ahead, much of it will be spent in clouds/fog and areas of drizzle. Could be a little optimistic the farther north you go, given a day in clouds and precip, but as the wave moves east and the next front drives southward, a thermal ridge of 6-9C at 850mb noses over our area in the afternoon.
1205 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure ridge has drifted eastward. Surface temperatures will be rising overnight with the approach of the secondary wave/system, and this should preclude freezing precipitation.
310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the southwestern U. Ahead of the trough, clouds are increasing from the south this afternoon. The trough will continue to push east tonight, and as this occur, drizzle and light rain will be possible along with some light fog into Monday morning. The trough will spread east across the region with the center of the trough axis moving across Arkansas on Monday. The increase in clouds will keep the highs in the 50s. MUCape will increase with the passage of the trough and may see some isolated thunder, which maybe capable of small hail, mainly Monday afternoon.
1254 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Warm front pushes northeast tonight into Monday night.
Moisture will return during the night and with lift persisting in the low levels. It generally appears to be freezing drizzle across much of the area initially although southern Iowa will climb above freezing toward daybreak with transition to drizzle. Precip should quickly end as the high noses in and drier air prevails. There may be a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the far Northwest but impacts should be minimal and not requiring any headlines.
A low pressure system will continue to move through southern Arizona today and spread rain and snow across much of the state.
1109 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure ridge has drifted eastward. Surface temperatures will be rising overnight with the approach of the secondary wave/system, and this should preclude freezing precipitation.
157 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 Upper air analysis features a deepening trof of low pressure across the western CONUS and rising heights from the southeast to the Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to slide east into the Ohio River Valley with return flow already taking shape across the western CWA this afternoon.
358 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak disturbance will lift north across the area tonight as high pressure moves east. Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers, especially Monday night.
It is questionable whether there will be a short period of light freezing drizzle in the western CWA so will be taking a close look at with the new model guidance.
251 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 KBYX shows scattered light showers from 20 nautical miles north of the Marquesas to the lower Keys to 60 nautical miles south of Marathon will move north northwest at 25 knots. Wind speeds are expected to gradually increase this evening into tomorrow as the pressure gradient across the region is compressed by an approaching trough. Model guidance continues to disagree on the strength and movement of a cold front later this week with biggest conflict being temperatures and dewpoints in the latter part of the week.
Another dry and pleasant day continues across South Florida as high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic and upper-level ridging aloft continue to influence the weather across the region. Along with increasing moisture, temperatures continue to warm up as well, reaching into the low 80s for many areas, above normal to start out 2017. For tonight, increasing moisture and the breakdown of the upper- level ridge as a deep longwave trough approaches from the lower Plains, may help to spawn a few isolated showers mainly over eastern areas and the Atlantic waters. The aforementioned longwave trough will become established across much of the eastern third of the CONUS, bringing a period of generally unsettled weather to the region.
302 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region though Monday.
A mild cloudy drizzly day to start the New Year with a warm front located to the south of the area stretching from W-E from Central Alabama eastward to the Carolina Coast. Current water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level trough moving across the Central Plains stretching southward into the Southern Mississippi River Valley. Light showers/drizzle will continue throughout the afternoon and evening as low level isentropic ascent will persist to the north of the advancing warm front. Mid-level and low-level flow will become southwesterly ahead of the approaching trough. The best lift and moisture will be across the mountains where the highest PoPs are featured. The warm front will continue to progress northward during the overnight hours but should remain to the south of the forecast area.
The cold upper level trough over the northern Intermountain Region continues to broaden and deepen. Models agree that the trough will remain over the Northwest through Monday.
352 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 (Tonight and Monday) A band of showers and thunderstorms near El Paso at 3 PM, associated with a strong upper low and Pacific front, will move into Crockett county and western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country late this evening, then across the rest of West Central Texas after midnight. Went closer to the warmer GFS MOS temperatures.
157 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight, and give way to an increasingly moist southerly air flow.
with temperatures remaining in the lower 50s to lower 60s. A warm front is starting to lift north across the areas this afternoon though. This warm front will continue to lift this evening ahead of an approaching system. the next more potent trough is currently moving into the New Mexico and Texas border area.
123 PM PST Sun Jan 1 2017 A low pressure trough developing to the north, will lift our moist and cool airmass over SoCal overnight and Monday, creating another chance of light precipitation along and west of the mountains. Weak ridging aloft for the midweek period should be sufficient to keep the weather dry, even with continued weak onshore flow. The winds are expected to increase and become more widespread this evening and overnight, so a Wind Advisory has been posted for the higher mountains and adjacent desert areas.
140 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight, and give way to an increasingly moist southerly air flow.
At mid morning, a trough / stalled front bisected Middle Tennessee. The boundary will pivot slightly and weaken, allowing slightly warmer and more moist air to creep up from the south.
Currently, clouds on the increase as moisture is increasing ahead of a large upper trough/low over the Pacific northwest. This will continue overnight with snow developing over the higher mtns. A cold front will sag slowly south overnight but the main push of cold air will hold off until Monday afternoon.
1115 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
This feature will be sending a cold front into our area late Monday. Based on moisture and temperatures profiles, a very light freezing drizzle mix is expected across much of northeast Nebraska where surface temperatures are slightly below freezing.
334 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 A short wave trough will pass east out of the southern Rockies and across West Texas tonight.
A period of drizzle or freezing drizzle may occur later tonight into early Monday before rain moves in Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Low level isentropic ascent will continue throughout the TAF cycle to the north of a warm front.
By the afternoon surface temperatures look to be at or above freezing. If precip ends up coming in sooner there may be some light freezing drizzle in the morning as bufkit soundings show saturation in the lowest 2000kft with the temperature profile below freezing and little to no ice in the dendrite growth zone.
Temperatures have been tricky this morning, below and near freezing temperatures across northwestern Oklahoma held on longer than anticipated, about two to three hours beyond sunrise. Surface wetbulb temps across central portions of Oklahoma are near or slightly below freezing, and this will need to be monitored closely. Currently anticipate wetbulb temps to rise above freezing before any fog/drizzle moves into central portions of the state later this morning.
Will continue the high chances through the morning with this system, gradually tapering off in the afternoon.
256 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
Snow showers will become better organized and more frequent tonight as the next short wave trough comes in from the northwest. At 2 PM MST the trough was along the WA coast.
GLS stands the best chance for the lowest ceilings tonight, with a scattered deck around 500 feet at 08Z. more humid morning with the surface warm front positioned way north across northeastern Texas. High dew points in the middle 60s (north) to upper 60s to lower 70s (coast) with a warm start around 70 F suggests that we will be achieving the lower 80s by noon at many sites.
At the surface, the ridge of high pressure has moved off the coast to the Atlantic ocean.
331 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 A warm front is currently located over northeastern SD and into west central MN where temps have warmed into the upper 30s and mid 40s. A few models are showings a tongue of warmer air aloft in the SE portion of the CWA where freezing rain is possible. Models soundings suggest any freezing rain will be brief with only minor accumulations expected. Will hold off on headlines as the confidence in freezing rain is low.
1005 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Updated this morning's low temperatures as increasing cloud cover and a bit of wind kept temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer than expected. The next storm system appears to be strengthening over the Pacific NW with its cold front sweeping across northern NV and into NW UT. A strong polar jet rounds the bottom of the trough and curves toward the north over WY and the high plains, while to subtropical jet is arcing north over southern CA. The surface cold front should push through NE UT into extreme NW CO late this afternoon and early evening then progress through most of the forecast area overnight and hanging up over SW CO Tuesday morning.
A warm front will bring an area of showers with a chance of elevated thunderstorms to southern WI tonight on the nose of a low level jet.