Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1013 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 High pressure centered over southern Minnesota this afternoon has kept conditions quiet and dry today. Low temps tonight will be near normal with values in the low to upper 50s. High pressure will slide farther southeast on Saturday. An 850 mb thermal ridge will slide southeastward across northern Minnesota ahead of an approaching cold front. The thermal ridge will boost temperatures over northern Minnesota compared to areas farther south where clouds will keep temperatures a little cooler. Highs on Saturday will reach the low 80s north to the middle 70s south. A weakening cold front on Sunday will result in a few showers along the international border in the morning, ending in the afternoon as drier air from approaching high pressure takes over.
329 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Hot weather today will yield a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the coast as a cold front arrives.
Temperatures will remain close to normal with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures should be warmer on Saturday with highs around 90 degrees. By Saturday night, the upper level ridge over the central U. This will start to bring in much warmer air into the region. Temperatures Saturday night will be a little warmer with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will be much warmer than Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
An upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over Texas this afternoon, and Arkansas was on the northeast edge of the ridge. An upper level disturbance rotating around the ridge was helping to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Beyond tomorrow, the ridge will start to build across the area, and temperatures on Sunday are going to get downright hot - with lower to mid 90's across the north, and mid to upper 90's across the south.
Low temperatures will be above normal in the low to mid 70s.
Stubborn high pressure aloft over TX will maintain triple digit max temps each day for several days.
1202 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
235 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 A cold front currently draped across southern Saskatchewan early this morning will slowly drop southward across northern North Dakota today. This cold front will also lead to a noticeable temperature gradient from north to south today, with the latest iteration of the NBM suggesting highs around 70 degrees across northwest North Dakota, to the mid 80s across southwest North Dakota. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger tonight as the cold front continues to slowly push southward through central North Dakota.
131 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure will work into the region tonight allowing for dry conditions through the weekend.
901 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Cold front has pushed east/southeast through Billings this evening. As the low continues to move east from the PacNW, another chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive tomorrow afternoon for the mountains before the storms begin to move off of the higher terrain and into the plains. High temperatures will cool into the lower to mid 80s for Saturday and Sunday with low temperatures cooling off into the mid 50s.
1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 Beautiful day in place today with high pressure sprawled out across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures as of 1 pm were in the 70s with pleasant dew points in the lower and middle 50s. High pressure will drift east across the area overnight as a dissipating complex of storms approaches areas west of the Mississippi River from the Northern Plains toward daybreak. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy/cooler day on tap with highs mainly in the 70s. High pressure building in from Canada should get rid of the showers by afternoon with some partial clearing.
00Z 500 millibar upper air analysis shows an upper level high directly over West Central Texas. The ECMWF and GFS prog this upper level high pressure system to shift east into North Texas today, placing West Central Texas on the western periphery.
Models have a weak inverted trough associated with these storms which will help sustain them through the night. A stronger inverted trough is sustaining thunderstorms in Mexico tonight is expected to support activity across eastern Arizona Saturday afternoon and night into Sunday with possible heavy rain from the deep moisture. A trough off the northwest California coast will continue to draw deep moisture into central and eastern Arizona through the weekend.
127 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
It's not impossible for the low clouds to reach KJCT, but will monitor closely and amend as necessary.
a similar aviation forecast as the upper level subtropical ridge parked over Texas remains so for another day.
A ridge of high pressure remains in place aloft while at the surface a ridge is centered over the Atlantic and stretches into the gulf. Rain chances will mainly remain in the Atchafalaya Basin and to the east which is closer to the periphery of the ridge.
High pressure building in behind the cold front today has brought drier conditions and sunny skies for Central Illinois. Still in northwesterly flow, models have picked up on a wave moving over the upper ridge and dropping into the region, bringing chances for precip for most of Sunday.
1006 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The upper level low advancing into northern California Saturday will draw an increasingly dry southwest flow aloft into Utah this weekend. A dry cold front will move through the northern half of the state Sunday.
Diurnal trends will continue to dominate under strong ridging. 500 mb heights don't change much and 850 mb temperatures look similar to today so it's not completely clear why numerical guidance is trending cooler. Will trim a degree from today's values but not convinced it will be much cooler as suggested by guidance. Latest guidance has temperatures a bit cooler for the start of the week compared to previous runs, but temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper 90s and heat indicies going into the triple digits. The ridge of high pressure remains overhead through the beginning of the workweek limiting POPs, although the typical diurnal shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon hours. The chance of showers does increase beginning midweek as ridge weakens/slides to the west.
Upper troughing continues along the East Coast with a strong ridge across the South-Central CONUS. A weak cold front across southern KY will slowly drift south on Saturday afternoon and be a focus for chance PoPs along and south of this front.
134 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The cooler than average temperatures will continue through Sunday.
330 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 A cooler, less humid, and dry weather pattern will last through the weekend.
Highs today will mainly be in the 70s with abundant cloud cover from upstream convection as it heads east with the highest temperatures to the east with more hours of sunshine. Lows tonight will be warmer, only falling into the middle 50s across the north with lows around 60 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday should generally be around 80 as rising dew points into the lower to middle 60s make the air a bit more uncomfortable than it has been in previous days.
239 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and a ridge across the Rockies into the plains.
Sunday looks even better for severe storm potential, due to the strong upper level trof moving into northern Montana. The main question will be timing of when the mid level trof moves through the area. If this trof moves through a little slower than what the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian shows, we may have severe convection closer to the Laramie Range which is advertised in the latest day3 SPC outlook.
319 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and a ridge across the Rockies into the plains. This period starts off with high pressure across the Ohio River Valley and another across the Canadian Prairies. Slight troughing lies between them across Upper Michigan to Iowa. Otherwise precipitation associated with the approaching cold front, dries up before crossing Lake Superior.
500 mb RAP analysis and satellite show and area of high pressure located over Texas with ridging extending north into the Plains and Rockies. The tri-state area looks to be on the northern edge of the upper ridge tonight as it begins to gradually shift eastward. A weak trough moves across the central U.
341 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
1151 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 High pressure will track from the Upper Midwest tonight into southern Lower Mi on Saturday. Confluent northwest flow prevails through the weekend as high pressure dominates at the surface. Rebounding heights during Sunday will support a slight uptick in high temps in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front is moving south across the forecast area this morning. High pressure builds into NE Montana this afternoon which will allow for dry weather over most of the region. The cold front will become quasi-stationary this afternoon across Southern Montana which will become the focus point for thunderstorms this afternoon that could reach as far northeast as Petroleum County. The flow aloft turns to the SW tonight as upper trough in the Pacific NW moves to the east. The upper trough enters Western Montana and Alberta during the day on Sunday and the next surge of moisture moves in during the afternoon and evening with the next wave on SW flow aloft.
728 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger in the Idaho mountains on Sunday, but dry and cooler air behind a cold front will move into the area by Sunday Night.
The combination of hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s and high humidity, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, will contribute to heat index values in the 107-110 range.
An upper level low advancing into northern California Saturday will draw an increasingly dry southwest flow aloft into Utah this weekend. A dry cold front will move through the northern half of the state Sunday.
528 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 /12Z TAFS/ The low clouds advecting northwest across the Hill Country early this morning resulted in MVFR CIGs at KJCT. 00Z 500 millibar upper air analysis shows an upper level high directly over West Central Texas. The ECMWF and GFS prog this upper level high pressure system to shift east into North Texas today, placing West Central Texas on the western periphery.
539 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
Cooler weather will be seen today with daytime temperatures well below normal. A deep upper low remains just off the coast of northern California early this morning bringing cooler temperatures and unsettled weather to the area. Additional showers and storms are expected today as the closed low moves onshore and begins to lift northeast across NorCal. The closed low transitions to an open wave late afternoon and lifts north and east of the area Saturday evening, ending any chances for precipitation. Temperatures today will be quite cool in comparison to climatology, with Valley highs only reaching into the low and mid- 80s. Persistent cloud cover in the northern Sacramento Valley will keep temperatures cooler than in the southern portion, where the marine layer is expected to erode by late morning.
Updated at 234 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Weak cold front has been slowly sliding southward this morning and is currently Tennessee. While high temperature spreads across the region won't vary much, what will be noticeable are the lower dewpoints. Tonight should be rather pleasant as drier air allows temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s for many spots. Updated at 304 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Sunday and Sunday night high pressure moving from the upper Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic will keep our weather very warm and dry.
832 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 An upper-level ridge has become parked over the Southern U. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low-to-mid 90s inland. Coupled with the high humidity, this will cause heat indices (feels-like temperatures) to reach 108 degrees, prompting the issuance of a heat advisory for this afternoon from Tampa Bay northward.
The activity is situated along an axis of enhanced lift, and along the leading edge of the low lvl jet. Highs on Sun wl top out in the lower and mid 90s over most areas.
As an upper-level ridge centers itself closer to central Oklahoma later today through tomorrow, low ceilings and restricted visibilities (along with showers/storms) will become less likely. Otherwise, the story again will be the heat with the high temperatures and heat index values spreading north again. The axis of the highest dewpoints is expected to be oriented into north central Oklahoma this afternoon and will allow heat index values to get quite high.
611 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Today's weather should be quiet with high pressure edging into the area from the northeast. Through the short term period, an upper level high will move east across the southern U.
632 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 A cooler, less humid, and dry weather pattern will last through the weekend.
Hot and humid conditions continue with mid-upper level high to the west.
The upper high pressure system should remain quasi-stationary over the region during the period (deterministic GFS/ECMWF.
Satellite imagery showed cooler cloud tops associated with isolated convection over northeast Oklahoma this morning. Surface dewpoint readings in the mid to upper 70s along with temps in the low to mid 90s will create dangerous heat index values across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The upper level high will slowly slide east parking over over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1020 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
An area of low pressure continues to move ever so slowly toward Northwest California this morning. As the low accelerates east today additional showers will form over the interior areas of the region. High temperatures today across the interior will be 10-15 degrees below normal as the upper low moves overhead.
During Sunday, the main trough will push through northwest Montana bringing more rain for the entire area, but the best chance for soaking rain will be throughout northwest Montana between noon and 9pm. Weak high pressure is set to bring warming temperatures and briefly drier conditions for the first half of the week.
753 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 A cooler, less humid, and dry weather pattern will last through the weekend.
Associated frontal boundary extending into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa will continue to help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms on the nose of the low level jet across our eastern half. primarily from east central SD into the Buffalo Ridge and Iowa Great Lakes region. As a result, temperatures will be markedly cooler in the Highway 14 corridor, with highs in the lower 70s. Lows will be mild in the low to mid 60s. Stratus is expected to persist for much of the day, keeping temperatures a little cooler than normals. By late Sunday evening however, another wave riding the ridge lifts into the region.
621 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and a ridge across the Rockies into the plains. This period starts off with high pressure across the Ohio River Valley and another across the Canadian Prairies. Slight troughing lies between them across Upper Michigan to Iowa. Otherwise precipitation associated with the approaching cold front, dries up before crossing Lake Superior.
Convective chances look nearly nil with ridging in place aloft. A ridge of high pressure remains in place aloft while at the surface a ridge is centered over the Atlantic and stretches into the gulf. Rain chances will mainly remain in the Atchafalaya Basin and to the east which is closer to the periphery of the ridge.
622 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Hot weather today will yield a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the coast as a cold front arrives.
Further south streamline analysis placed approaching inverted trof across southern Sonora, moving north. Models agree that the approaching inverted trof will bring a really good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area over the next 36 hours and with PWAT values around 1. Activity will continue into the evening and overnight hours as the inverted trof moves north across the area. Activity will be winding down on Sunday as the inverted trof moves into New Mexico. Forecasting the high temperatures a bit tricky today due to cloud cover and when the showers begin.
A cold front should push south of the CWA and winds are oftentimes too light in the models. A cold front is moving south across the forecast area this morning. High pressure builds into NE Montana this afternoon which will allow for dry weather over most of the region. The cold front will become quasi-stationary this afternoon across Southern Montana which will become the focus point for thunderstorms this afternoon that could reach as far northeast as Petroleum County. The flow aloft turns to the SW tonight as upper trough in the Pacific NW moves to the east. The upper trough enters Western Montana and Alberta during the day on Sunday and the next surge of moisture moves in during the afternoon and evening with the next wave on SW flow aloft.
The upper level high continues to very slowly drift eastward and it appears that the center is just a bit slower in its eastward trek than suggested in last night's model soundings. Some weak convergence in wind fields exists across that area though the lower levels are relatively stable thanks to low level inversions.
All eyes on the dynamic inverted trough, currently south of Arizona, for this weekend. The trough is sustaining a couple of MCSs this morning, one south of Arizona and another in southwestern New Mexico. Expect this activity, deeper moisture and the trough to move north-northeast through Sunday, as an upper low over NW California shears out through the northern Great Basin. Battling this moisture is persistent southwest flow to our west, due to the Pacific Coast trough. Nocturnal convection is likely, due to the dynamical nature of the slowly ejecting trough.
Otherwise, the story again will be the heat with the high temperatures and heat index values spreading north again. The axis of the highest dewpoints is expected to be oriented into north central Oklahoma this afternoon and will allow heat index values to get quite high.
/issued 418 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ The upper level high continues to very slowly drift eastward and it appears that the center is just a bit slower in its eastward trek than suggested in last night's model soundings. Some weak convergence in wind fields exists across that area though the lower levels are relatively stable thanks to low level inversions.
327 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The upper level ridge currently centered over the Southern Plains is forecast to slowly build into the area in response to an upper level trough currently moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest.
Upper ridge over the northern Midwest will move east with the axis crossing Michigan early Sunday. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes.
Across the northwest half of the forecast area, slightly stronger and cooler mid level flow expected to contribute to steeper mid level lapse rates.
219 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and a ridge across the Rockies into the plains. This period starts off with high pressure across the Ohio River Valley and another across the Canadian Prairies. Slight troughing lies between them across Upper Michigan to Iowa. Otherwise precipitation associated with the approaching cold front, dries up before crossing Lake Superior.
349 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019 High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend with seasonable temperatures and dry weather.
Models show the upper ridge remaining centered over Texas through the weekend.
850 mb trough axis beginning to pivot across the CWA this afternoon, with warm advection ahead of this feature likely creating a few showers and thunderstorms over MN/IA counties later this afternoon. Closer to the trough axis, a few showers have already developed along a 925 mb convergence axis near or east of I- 29. Dew points are expected to only modestly fall this evening, and this should help temperatures a couple degrees warmer than previous forecast.
An upper level low and trough moving onto the Pacific northwest coast is providing a divergent southwest flow aloft across southern Montana and northern Wyoming.
Cooler temperatures today will give way to warmer temperatures Sunday. Tonight, the upper level trough that has driven cooler temperatures over the Bay Area heads toward Idaho and out of our region. However, being on the backside of the trough will keep the marine layer stagnant and remove any forcing mechanism for it to traverse any further inland.
/issued 832 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ An upper-level ridge has become parked over the Southern U. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low-to-mid 90s inland. Coupled with the high humidity, this will cause heat indices (feels-like temperatures) to reach 108 degrees, prompting the issuance of a heat advisory for this afternoon from Tampa Bay northward.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Area of high pressure centered across Lake Michigan is departing the area to the east. On the backside, a warm front is lifting northeast through Iowa with dew points in the low to mid 70s now in place across the western half of the state. Areal coverage will decrease though as storms move towards the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor.
252 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 (Tonight through Sunday) Persistence forecast continues under upper ridging.
The forecast area remains on the western end of an upper level high that is centered over North Texas. Early morning convection is not expected the next two nights as the ridge has lost some of its mid level moisture and stabilized in the mid levels as well.
An anomalous deep trough currently exists just off the west coast which puts our area under the influence of a dry southwest flow. ECMWF/GFS Ensemble forecasts indicate the afore mentioned trough will eject eastward across the northern tier of the US early this week, but another quickly takes its place by later in the week. The high pressure over the Southwest US will not reassert it self until this southwest flow weakens. However, wind speeds are expected to lighten up a bit as low pressure system to the north weakens and moves inland.
Still dealing with an area of mostly light rain and/or showers in response to a weak upper level disturbance moving around the northeast flank of the ridge which was centered this morning across North Central Texas into South Central/Southwest Oklahoma. This weakness north and east of the ridge will continue to drift south and east today, bringing with it isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Hot and humid conditions continue under the H5 ridge.
A secondary area of heavy rainfall could occur along and north of Highway 12, or closer to the upper level trough.
The area of low pressure responsible for the showers will continue eastward across southern Minnesota and into southern Wisconsin by Sunday morning.
Currently, quasi-zonal flow aloft with an upper ridge over the southern plains and a deep upper level low across south central Canada.
An upper level ridge which is currently centered over the central U. The ridge will continue to spread east on Sunday with dry weather and warmer temperatures expected. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values exceeding 105 degrees over a large area of the Mid-South.