Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR TUE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH AND GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING MOVING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER PROMINENT SHRTWV DIVING INTO THE SW CONUS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Cold front is all the way through the the CWFA at this hour. Edge of the low clouds is now east of Kirksville and extends southwest through west central Missouri.
EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER VS TODAY/SATURDAY.
HOWEVER ALL OF THE RAIN HAS REMAINED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S CONTINUING TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
and with upstream temps quite cool and with ample cloud cover feel that this afternoon will be cooler than previously thought. /issued 348 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/ Upper trough extending from NM down into Northern Mexico this morning will continue to slowly push east.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
212 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND A MID/UPR SW/V TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FURTHER SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SURGE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY A 3-4 MB PRESSURE RISES UPSTREAM. HOWEVER TO AVOID CONFUSION AND THE FACT THAT A FEW AREAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 3 FT MSL AT THE HIGH TIDE TNT. CEILINGS WL TEND TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO DRY THE LOW LVLS OUT.
1254 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
308 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW JUST OFF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HUDSON BAY LOW WITH TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REMNANTS OF PATRICIA MOVING ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS GULF COAST.
Cold front has passed through all except our far southeastern counties, and should reach KJCT by mid- afternoon. In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage, temperatures will slowly fall through the day, given strength of the low-level cold air advection with cloud cover. Adjusted the hourly temperature grids to account for the slow fall in temperatures, with the highs today occurring during the early part of this morning. It appears the heavy rain threat should continue to shift to the southeast today along with the cold frontal boundary. An upper trough moving across the area today will also enhance this lift. Areas of fog will continue to form this morning as the cooler air lowers the temperature to near the dewpoint temperature.
1034 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Clouds will spread over the Inland Northwest today ahead of a low pressure system tracking toward Oregon coast.
THE LOW 700 MILES W OF WA/OR WILL WEAKEN AND THE REMAINING TROF WILL REACH THE W COAST SUN EVE. THE PAST 4 RUNS OF THE EC AND THE 144 HR GEM SUGGEST THE TAIL OF THE TROF BREAKS OFF FORMING A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHWRS AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES. WED: THE LAST TROF CLEARS AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS. STRATOCU WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH THERMAL TROF/COOL POCKET OVERHEAD. TEMPS STILL A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
Clouds will move through a relatively weak ridge through Sunday.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/ PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ALONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO UPPER TROUGH FLOW. FROM BOTH THE SWD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
upper level low pressure will develop over southern TX and intensify as it lifts NE along the TX gulf coast.
235 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. 75" OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS TO ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. THOUGH THE WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
An area of low pressure over SE TX with abundant moisture will continue to slowly drift northeastward along the Gulf coast tonight. Temperatures today will peak be in the mid-upper 80s again and morning lows will be in the low-mid 60s.
THANKS TO A WESTWARD TRANSLATION OF AN UA TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
308 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AT 18Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NW INDIANA AND ON INTO NW ARKANSAS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AND THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
556 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 FEW CONCERNS WITH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
447 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME DIFFUSE NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IS THAT THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
NONE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR DURING THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE PRESENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL INJEST SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO THE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA.
256 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Cold front was into the NW portion of the CWFA, with a band of showers along and just ahead of it.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ARE UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO A COOLER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
559 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. 75" OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS TO ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. THOUGH THE WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
336 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 (time period) An upper trough over far west Texas into northern Mexico will progress east into our area tonight. Gusty north winds are occurring in the wake of the cold frontal passage, and temperatures have fallen into the 50s behind the front. Some cloud cover will remain over some of our eastern counties, where there is a lingering slight chance of showers Sunday morning until the trough axis shifts to the east.
352 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper trough over far west Texas into northern Mexico will progress east into our area tonight. Gusty north winds are occurring in the wake of the cold frontal passage, and temperatures have fallen into the 50s behind the front. Some cloud cover will remain over some of our eastern counties, where there is a lingering slight chance of showers Sunday morning until the trough axis shifts to the east.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS ARE ARE MOSTLY EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WITH STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING AIRMASS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN THE SPC HRRR IS DEVELOPING OVER 500 J/KG EAST OF A MOUNT PLEASANT TO SOUTH HAVEN LINE 18Z TO 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT.
226 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PASSES ACROSS.
300 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS.
1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 As of 3 am this morning, a cold front was currently located near Anderson to Bolivar to near Osage Beach. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will continue to move into the Missouri Ozarks Sunday appears to be a nice day with some sunshine and some high clouds towards the south.
WILL LIKELY NEED AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS FOR THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE BEFORE 3 PM. AND CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO EITHER LOW MVFR OR HIGH IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR HELPS LOCK DOWN A SOLID STRATUS DECK INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
The cold front that barreled its way south this morning is now south of the International border. With the cooler airmass in place lows tonight will be in the 30s/40s area wide.
219 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS THE WEST COAST.
Guidance generally allows for temperatures a few degrees warmer on Sunday night, however still in the mid to upper 30s across the region.
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A cold front moved through the region earlier today. A deepening mid latitude trough will move into the Plains late Mon-Tue, reaching the eastern Plains/eastern KS/NEB. This trough will pick up the Gulf low and abundant moisture moving it nne. The eastern cwfa will have the highest pops and rainfall amounts. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A post cold frontal band of mvfr ceilings is occurring along a KVIH-KSGF-KHFJ line and this will affect the Springfield and Branson sites in the near term.
Also made some tweaks to temperature trends primarily to go a little cooler and steadier on temperatures behind the cold front. With low level cold air advection behind the cold front as well as low level cloudiness, especially during the morning hours, forecasting a non diurnal temperature trend with nearly steady or even slowly falling temperatures during the daytime hours.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LAREDO TO COLUMBUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS TEXAS.
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS OUT WEST ALONG THE WITH PASSING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FOG AND INCREASED STRATUS THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD LEAD TO SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT WHERE SST TEMPS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 50S. THE EXITING LLJ AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER LAND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW.
514 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WERE KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NOTABLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. FEATURING ONE OF THE DEEPER UPPER LOWS I'VE SEEN IN A WHILE. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WAS DIGGING SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN LOW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A NW-SE FASHION TUE NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINTRY MIX. YIELDED MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW AND A BRIEF MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
614 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. BUT DISAGREE ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP PRODUCTION.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A STALWART 1027 MB SURFACE COLD RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NORTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND OUR RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY. STILL THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WARM GULF STREAM WATER IS/WILL RESULT IN A PREPONDERANCE OF STRATOCU UNDER THE INVERSION AND GIVEN THE SPREAD OF STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE EAST AND INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
EXPANDED AREA OF FCST FREEZING DZ AND INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME FOG INTO EARLY AFTN. UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ALSO OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AFFECTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT GOING ON AS WELL. AS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. ADDING TO THE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR SINKING IN WILL ALLOW THE DGZ TO FALL FROM AROUND 10KFT TO NEAR 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC. 1 TO 3 IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
904 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
620 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE EITHER FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ELEVATE INTO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR SOMETHING TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS DEPENDING ON HOW OR IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MATERIALIZES. FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE FOLDS OVER WHILE A SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS. FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES WILL PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY.
THE WEATHER IS QUIET THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND AN UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF US TUESDAY, AND THIS ALLOWS A WEAK WARM FRONT TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE WATERS AND COAST AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER INLAND.
TRAILING SWD FM THE LOW. DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FNT FOR LATER TNGT AND TUE.
940 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET TODAY. /ISSUED 427 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH REGIONAL WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
WARMER AND WETTER FOR THE SHORT TERM. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND A 1001MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER OUR CWA AND PWATS BACK TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS AGREE THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THEN BECOME A POST FRONTAL BAND TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A WARMING TREND AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BECOMING LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY AND COOLER WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BECOMING WARMER THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH RES MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND EURO ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF EURO AND GFS ON TEMPS TNITE WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY LATE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
221 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG ALONG TYPICAL SIERRA LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
552 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ALSO OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AFFECTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT GOING ON AS WELL. AS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. ADDING TO THE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR SINKING IN WILL ALLOW THE DGZ TO FALL FROM AROUND 10KFT TO NEAR 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC. 1 TO 3 IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
1049 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
601 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 A WEAK TROUGH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
911 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
551 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY TOMORROW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 Upper level trough is moving through the central Plains this morning. This will drag a cold front across the CWA today however, with shallow moisture and weak forcing precipitation will be pretty meager with this system. Model soundings are suggesting mainly light drizzle developing through the morning hours with the potential for the drizzle to be of the freezing variety across northeastern Missouri where temperatures are hovering right around freezing. Tonight the upper level trough will rotate through the area with CAA at the surface on the back side of the cold front. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week as clouds and continued CAA will hold temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
641 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.