Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most locations will remain dry, aside from perhaps a brief light shower or two in the high mountains of Trinity County.
353 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Current WV imagery shows the axis of the upper low currently positioned overhead. The moisture won't be in place early enough to take advantage of a few possible disturbances moving around the upper ridge tomorrow so the forecast will continue to be free of mentionable PoPs. Aldrich Gulf moisture begins to come back into the area Saturday night as flow backs in response to the trough digging into the desert southwest.
349 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Upper low evident along the colorado/kansas border this afternoon with scattered showers and a few storms moving generally southward over much of the CWA.
Sfc and upper ridging this afternoon will help somewhat limit convection, as will limited instability less than 500 J/kg as shown by all models. Nam shows a trough in the wrn U.
Gusty southerly winds will taper after sunset, but be more steady tomorrow as low pressure approaches from the west.
GKS The threat for showers/storms will continue on Saturday and Saturday night as the negatively tilted upper level trough moves northeastward through the area.
The region will remain on the southern side of an area of high pressure across Eastern North Carolina overnight.
215 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Southern California weather this Memorial Weekend will be influenced by an upper level trough of low pressure.
An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered convection from developing, though shear values will be high enough to allow one or two storms to be severe.
A few showers continue this morning due to wraparound flow from the low that brought the rain and storms yesterday with occasional snow being reported at the highest elevations. While a ridge does build in today, plenty of moisture and daytime heating will allow another day of showers and storms. Intensity and coverage will be somewhat less since the area of low pressure, and forcing it provided, will have shifted well to our east.
An upper level low will remain over British Columbia through at least tonight. Meanwhile the low level flow will remain westerly and onshore.
Upper trough axis expected to move slowly eastward over the next 24 to 48 hrs. Instabilities will again be on the low side so tstm development will be more isol/sct.
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Upper trough is currently extending from southwest Neb to central KS, and will lift northeastward squarely across the forecast area very late tonight and Saturday. Later tonight ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, thetae advection increases again and lingers through the day Saturday as the trough moves through. On the backside of this low, thetae ridging is pretty persistent, so would not rule out pockets of heavy rainfall, especially noting light mid level winds, generally throughout the eastern half of our area east of the James River valley. That said, the warm cloud depth is relatively shallow and the low level dew points are not excessively high.
A weakly organized upper low over the Caribbean will meander northeastward along the Florida Atlantic seaboard today through tonight, into an upper ridge situated over the east coast. Subsidence on the west and northwest side of this system working with the upper ridge will help to suppress any precip as it brings drier air towards and ultimately over the eastern quarter of the area.
An upper level trough moves away from Texas and along with drier air aloft makes for a lull in rains overnight.
A cold front reaches Central Nevada on Saturday, continuing periodic showers with a few thunderstorms across this portion of Nevada.
An elongated upper level low stretches southeast from just east of Florida to the Western Caribbean near Jamaica. Dry northwesterlies are apparent on water vapor imagery streaking towards the base of the upper level trough. Despite the hostility aloft, the lower troposphere features steep lapse rates and adequate moisture.
The kicker would be another weak disturbance passage latter today ahead of the Rocky Mountain upper low as it lifts out into the Plains early Saturday.
Deep layer shear is marginal with upper ridging still in place over the region.
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms pivoting around an upper level low pressure system are expected through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. For Saturday, the upper level low will push eastward, and with it any chances for rain showers will move out of the area. Temperatures reach up into the low to mid 70s across the entire CWA, making for a fairly pleasant start to the holiday weekend.
Issued at 240 PM Fri May 27 2016 The latest analysis showed high pressure at the surface and aloft off the Carolina coast while a closed low was located in the front range of the Colorado Rockies. For Saturday, models continue to show an upper level impulse swinging through the lower Ohio Valley. Plenty of clouds will hold temps in check, so most locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, but depending on timing a few spots west of I-65 could stay in the 70s.
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Mid/upper level closed low seen on water vapor sat pics over southwestern Manitoba/Turtle Mountains area this afternoon. Current convection in the form of scattered showers were in southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the northern tier of counties in North Dakota near the vicinity of the upper level low. Across our northern counties there is a potential for more vigorous showers/thunder with the cooler air aloft near the upper low. Tonight the upper level low is forecast to open and become diffuse with time as it lifts northward into northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan on Saturday. Meanwhile a large scale upper level low system over British Columbia today expands eastward tonight.
Highs will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with lows in the 60s.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish by mid morning. As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks.
However one common theme is that they do continue to show the highest chances and heaviest rain along west of the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys.
The other area of precipitation will be convectively driven across some of the higher terrain in southeast Wyoming. Saturday will bring slightly warmer temperatures with highs from the mid 60s into south central Wyoming to the lower 70s for the Nebraska Panhandle.
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Freezing level around 6000' AGL will support the potential for small hail. around a Pacific upper low, before a westerly flow overtakes the region Sat. along a cold front moving out of the area. Expect thunderstorms along the departing cold front so had highest PoPs in the afternoon over the far E.
The atmosphere will have a difficult time recharging today with the abundant cloud cover remaining in place, so confidence is high in the low probability for widespread severe weather. For temperatures, went a little cooler across the southwest where ongoing showers continue and also expecting redevelopment to occur late this afternoon.
Temperatures over the holiday weekend will edge closer to normal for late May with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert.
Further west, ridging from Canadian high extending down over western ND and will gradually decrease POPs over Devils region this evening and further east throughout the night.
southwest flow aloft existed with a stream of upper level disturbances tracking into our region from the Lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast. TES Southwest flow aloft continues for one more day and will maintain the areawide rain threat, ending with passage of a surface cold front later on Saturday night.
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Cold air aloft associated with closed low passing just north of forecast area may assist in production of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. /Issued 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ An upper low will pass by to our north today.
(Issued 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that the lower layers were mixing out with dewpoint temps falling to around 60 degrees across the forecast area.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the southeast United States. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is resulting in the advection of warm and very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico with surface dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
thus with heating and increased lift as the h5 trough migrates into the Plains. Large scale pattern features a mid tropospheric trough from Manitoba down into the four corners region. Water vapor imagery early this morning showed one closed low over eastern Colorado and another in northern North Dakota. A weak front seemed to extend from another low in northern South Dakota to western Kansas and then down to the low in Oklahoma.
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. A weak cold front will cross the region on Saturday.
Surface analysis this morning places an area of low pressure over southwest Kansas, a warm front over northern Missouri and southeast Kansas, and a cold front/dryline over west Texas, and an ridge of high pressure over the southeast coast of the United States. Upper level ridge is situated over the southeast U. Convection will become more diurnally driven this weekend as the upper low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valleys and heights rise a bit.
Tonight and Saturday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large upper trough positioned over the Kansas/Colorado border. Appears like a good opportunity for rainfall at all locations, but placed the highest chances generally over eastern Wisconsin where low level convergence is maximized and pwats are the highest. Lows mostly in the low to mid 60s. As the upper trough moves across the central plains, southwest flow will continue aloft. Some cooler locations are likely where rainfall is most persistent.
After this did keep some valley fog in the forecast and this would be enhanced in areas that do manage to see a storm For Saturday the focus shifts to the west where a 500mb wave across the lower Mississippi River Valley that will eject NE into western KY. Given no steering flow and high pressure no issues with winds are expected.
Upper level ridge will build northward on Saturday. The high risk of rip currents will continue through this evening as long period swells continue.
Temperatures ranged from the middle 40s to the lower 50s for much of the area. Highs today will be in the 70s, but it will once again be cooler near the lake. The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight, as the main upper level low and trough lifts into the western Great Lakes region. The extended highlights include the passage of a cold front early in the period, then upper level ridging followed by another extensive upper low.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that an upper low currently near the TX panhandle will lift northward across the Plains Tonight/Saturday while another system approaches the SWRN CONUS.
Low pressure well offshore will track towards SC and still expect minimal weather impacts on the local area except for elevated surf and higher rip current risk.
A meso Ridge runs north from northeast Montana through western Saskatchewan while a large trough stretches north from Washington up through the British Columbian coast. the remnants of a closed low from yesterday and left over moisture moving in from the northeast has allowed some showers and thunderstorms to form over the northeastern third of the CWA. To the west an upper level cold front has formed over western Montana.
Easterly flow is in place this morning as the region is on the southern edge of an area of high pressure off the Mid Atlantic States. The low level airmass has continued to moisten, and expect it to be a little more humid this afternoon. Expect a mostly sunny day across the region with highs warming into the lower 90s, except along the immediate coast, where temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected.
The main area of low pressure moves northeast across the region tonight through Saturday.
407 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the central plains with a trough extending into central Texas. The next disturbance rotating around the trough is interacting with daytime heating, rich gulf moisture, and high instability from residual cold pool and strong outflow boundary, from last night's and this morning's convection, to develop another mesoscale convective system. Upper level trough will begin to move off to the north on Saturday, however enough moisture and instability hanging around for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The effects of a mid to upper level ridge has continued to dominate the central Gulf coast weather, although a few showers have brushed the far northwest portion of the forecast area.
Low pressure developing off the southeast coast is being monitored.
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon continues to show two areas of low pressure across the western and central portions of the country. The northern and eastern periphery of a ridge extends into the central Gulf of Mexico, with a weak low centered over the Bahamas and Florida. At the surface, a weak low continues to spin between Bermuda and the Bahamas, with high pressure over the western Atlantic extending across the U. Rain chances look fairly similar to today, as the highest moisture will remain over mainly the southern half of the area.
However, HRRR is now initiating convection along inverted trough/sfc boundary which shifts slightly north. Main feature of interest will be an upper low over the central/southern plains which will slowly eject NE through the weekend. First will be any SHRA associated with upper low over SW MB. Better chances for rain will be across the SE FA as an impulse ejecting from the central plains upper low lifts NE. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but should be able to get into the low-mid 70s most areas. Central plains upper low lifts NE Saturday. Rain chances will likely be confined to the eastern Fa as remnant upper low lifts into the Mn arrowhead by morning. Upper low lifts NE with mid level flow becoming more zonal.
The low level jet will continue to move northward into the area this evening/overnight, keeping the moist flow into the forecast area.
Scattered thunderstorms in eastern South Dakota were lifting northward as a result of upper level impulses moving northward associated with another upper level low in the central plains. Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon.
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains will begin to move northeast on Saturday.
322 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The upper low continues to lift east into Kansas and Nebraska, with wrap around moisture continuing the showers and thunderstorms over the area. On Saturday, slight upper ridging will allow for warm advection, allowing for max temperatures to warm into the 60s and lower 70s for the plains. Weak troughing over the plains will produce light southeasterly winds over the plains, which will help focus the showers up near the Cheyenne Ridge.
105 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Upper low over eastern CO and western KS will continue to pull off to the northeast. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain before slowly moving across the plains during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures across the plains will rebound back into the upper 70s with mid to upper- 60s expected across the high valleys. Overnight, temperatures will be on the cooler side with lows approaching the freezing mark in the San Luis Valley.
Some convection already showing up on radar in this area at 19Z with an increase in coverage expected through late afternoon with activity spreading northeast tonight as the upper trough begins to lift toward eastern Nebraska.
However, most models suggest that some storms will form this afternoon along and near a weak cold front/dryline as an upper trough moves over the Central & Southern Plains. the upper low will move to the northeast of oklahoma later today with diminishing chances for thunder tonight and saturday. /issued 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ After a week, finally today the upper trough that has been to the west of OKlahoma will depart. Nevertheless, instability underneath the core of the low, passing from southeast CO into western Kansas, is expected to be sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the upper trough, Saturday appears to be the day between the last week and the next with the lowest chance for rain or thunder.
The upper low is moving across Colorado this morning and will continue to approach the Central Plains during the day today. An area of upper level low pressure is expected to be located right over the heart of the CWA to start the day, with continuing chances for at least scattered precipitation, especially over north-northeastern sections. During the daytime hours, model agreement remains good showing this upper level low sliding northeast, ending up roughly over the MN/IA/SD border area by evening.
The next feature of interest can be seen over the central Plains in water vapor imagery, rotating around the main upper low.
If an isolated storm were to form on the dryline it would most likely occur near the Red River, closest to the departing upper low.
have removed pops from all locations except the southern ridges. The lack of activity is due to an increase in subsidence under a strengthen eastern ridge and also very warm air aloft, which is providing a cap on the atmosphere. Observations to the west of the ridges are showing a west-southwesterly wind, while observations to the east are indicating a south-southeasterly flow. Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy fog looks minimal. Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up further over the forecast area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this afternoon. Deep boundary layer moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early part of the period.
1042 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The passage of a cold front this morning will bring cooler and breezy conditions. Accompanying the front and upper low will be a chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington. The cold front is pushing across extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho this morning with light bands of showers. Behind the front and beneath the upper level trough, the convective temperature has been met and showers have bloomed over the Okanogan Highlands and northeast Washington mountains.
Warm air aloft will limit potential for showers/storms the remainder of the day and have updated the forecast to show dry conditions outside of slight chances for the ridges. Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy fog looks minimal. Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up further over the forecast area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
East of the Cascades, significantly lower dew points are being observed today compared to yesterday, and with mostly clear skies again tonight, freezing conditions are likely in portions of the Klamath Basin.
349 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Warmer and drier weather today except for a few showers and possibly an isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorm along the Sierra Crest.
233 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that the lower layers were mixing out with dewpoint temps falling to around 60 degrees across the forecast area.
Highs over most areas should be in the lower to perhaps middle 80s.
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The approach of an upper level low pressure system will keep the airmass unsettled. The cold front associated with this system will cross the region today and most showers and thunderstorm activity will be associated with this front during the afternoon. However, a cold front will cross the area from west to east this afternoon and evening, contributing to the development of scattered -SHRA and TSRA.
As we move toward the latter half of the week, rain chances get a little better as the upper low closes off and digs southeast toward Arkansas/Missouri by the weekend. We will continue to keep an eye on the tropics with a low pressure developing in the Western Atlantic, but this is not expected to have any direct effects to our local weather.
Some weak low level ridging will develop across southern portions of the state on Saturday.
150 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Upper low will continue it's slow trek eastward through the afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the afternoon. The exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta- E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
Meanwhile at the surface, a low pressure system was analyzed over west TX with southerly low level flow persisting over the southern plains helping to maintain a moist airmass over the forecast area. Within the warm and moist airmass still in place, the upper trough axis slowly lifts to the northeast through the day on Saturday.
Low temperatures close to guidance and in the low and mid 60s.
This is in association with lift ahead of a weak mid-level trough rotating northeastward out of the Central Plains. General convergent/cyclonic flow with cooler air aloft is expected to continue likelihood of showers/isolated thunderstorms through the night.
Slow moving upper low that brought significant and hazardous weather to the area yesterday remains spinning over the western portion of our area. models having a hard time resolving/starting out with the details of the complicated upper trough. The high resolution was doing well initially on the surface wind field followed by the Gfs/Ecmwf. Gfs started out best on the low level thermal field. Closed upper low currently spinning over/near the western portion of the area. There will be more sun and warmer temperatures and made only minor adjustments to the previous forecast.
Good moisture rotating around the low pressure system with a couple of bands of showers/embedded thunder rotating to the north/west across the CWA. The low pressure system will dominate the weather the next 24 hours. Models in good agreement as the low slowly pushes to the east today across western KS then picks up a little speed as it lifts to the northeast into eastern Nebraska tonight. As the low lifts to the northeast overnight, dry air will get drawn into the back side of the system and bring an end to the showers in the west. As for temps, cooler today as the clouds/showers will keep temps from rising to far. Upper level low will be in the process of opening up and moving northeast across the region Saturday.