Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation to start the work week. In the upper levels, an eastward transitioning ridge was located over the Northern Rockies and High Plains, while a trough axis was moving over the Pacific coast. As the ridge moves over the Northern Plains through the weekend, mild temperatures will be common under a coinciding 850mb thermal ridge.
As the upper level ridge shifts across the local area overnight through Sunday in response to an area of low pressure digging across the desert southwest. These warmer temperatures will further exasperate low relative humidities across the region Sunday afternoon. Given the high confidence for strong/gusty winds and low relative humidity values.
High pressure overhead has led to light and variable winds throughout the day. Meanwhile, a steep mid to upper level trough will push into the Four Corners region and strengthen across the Rockies due to leeside cyclogenesis. Daytime highs will reach the upper 70s while overnight lows will be noticeably warmer and in the mid to upper 50s.
These conditions will be short-lived as a strong Pacific Cold Front is already crossing the Washington Cascades. The timing of the cold front is around 6pm MDT/ 5pm PDT, as it will begin to affect north- central Idaho and northwest Montana.
1050 AM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Weak ridging today will bring another very mild day to the state, with lower elevations reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Then the next winter storm arrives across the state as a longwave trough and associated cold front sweep through. The proximity of the trough and midlevel instability will bring the peak of the western mountain snowfall between 6am and noon Sunday. Sunday afternoon, the sfc cold front will also sweep southward, bringing colder sfc temps. As the front and trough move into central WY, the lower elevations will start out as rain, before switching over to snow once the front passes.
Breezy north to northwest winds will also develop on Sunday along with temperatures warming into the lower 60s near the coast to upper 60s inland. High pressure will then build in across the region in place of the exiting mid/upper level trough.
154 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers will persist today into tonight as upper level low pressure tracks through the area.
1247 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Mild, dry weather returns for the weekend, with Sunday the warmer weekend day.
(This evening through Sunday) Our dry weather pattern will continue for the remainder of the weekend as an upper level ridge works its way across the state. Southerly winds overnight will keep our temperatures relatively warmer compared to this morning. On Sunday, an upper level trough will begin to deepen over the Desert Southwest.
136 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A front exits the piedmont by this evening, with northwest winds brining in cooler air tonight into Sunday.
Upper level trough along with a 500mb vort max will swing across the Ohio Valley this morning. Lows will fall into the low/mid 30s overnight.
123 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Satellite imagery shows upper ridge over the northern Rockies/high plains and a deepening upstream trof moving onto the Pacific coast. High clouds are spilling over the ridge and into our region. Modest gap winds gusting into the low 40s are occurring at Livingston and Nye. Pacific trof is forecast to split with jet driving to the far SW CONUS as it moves inland over the next 24 hours. precipitation (mainly snow) will shift slowly eastward with the upper trof. The models have not quite resolved their timing differences with respect to the trof axis, but it does appear precipitation will linger into the evening over the Bighorns and SE Montana.
155 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Rockies with trof along the west coast. At the surface, trof/warm front crossing the western Dakotas. Upper ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains tonight, with broad southwest flow and warm advection continuing. Strong cold front will move into northeast WY in the afternoon and far western SD in the early evening, with very gusty northwest winds expected.
1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Light and variable winds are anticipated today as the mid/upper ridge builds eastward across the area. Southerly winds will ramp up on Sunday as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado resulting in a tightening pressure gradient downstream across the Central Plains.
South winds will begin to return late tonight into early Sunday morning as lee pressure falls commence over eastern CO ahead of an approaching mid to upper trough.
147 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday, with briefly cooler weather this weekend.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Southeast. With sunny skies tomorrow temps will be warmer with highs mostly in the 60s.
Showers were developing in southeast Oregon ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The cold front will move through southeast Oregon late this afternoon and southwest Idaho this evening, accompanied by gusts to around 45 mph. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal.
Think temperatures will stay above freezing with overnight lows in the middle 30s. Dry column per model soundings and rh progs and subsidence associated with high pressure from the Gulf to the Great Lakes will provide sunny skies across all of central Indiana on Sunday. The abundant sunshine and warm advection support well above normal highs in the lower to middle 60s. Normal highs for late March are in the lower and middle 50s. As the high shifts east Sunday night, winds will gain a Gulf fetch while an upper ridge will move into the Mississippi Valley well ahead of an upper low over New Mexico. Will see cirrus spill overtop the ridge. That and the southerly low level winds will keep temperatures from falling to any lower than the lower 40s.
249 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Lines of deep convection in the C to NE Gulf this afternoon as series of vort maxes move through the upper trough. But models have backed off the POPS, rainfall and severe weather potential for the entire area tonight into Sunday as the approaching upper trough is not expected to be as deep and the upper dynamics are lifting quickly to the NE out of the region leaving weaker support.
Showers will continue to develop ahead of a cold front in southeast Oregon this morning.
Today will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 67 40 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 64 38 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 38 65 38 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 59 35 69 43 / 10 0 0 0 0.
High pressure spreading over the area. /issued 335 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A zonal 500 mb flow will persist over the BRO CWFA, while at the surface, high pressure dominates.
allowing low temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s. Given clear skies and light winds, excellent radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.
Strong cold front expected to sweep through the region tonight into early Sunday morning. However none of the ensemble data supports this and the high-resolution models don't seem to indicate it as well. 2 to 4 inches remains possible in the lower elevations with 5 to 8 inches likely on ridges and mountain tops.
223 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Following dry and mild conditions this afternoon, an upper trough approaching the west coast will translate across the western U. Longer term, ensembles show upper ridging returning to the region for the middle part of the upcoming week with an expected rebound in temperatures.
A positively tilted upper trof extending from near the Great Lakes into the south central states takes on a meridional orientation while progressing to the East Coast during the period.
1210 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Low pressure centered over northern Indiana this morning will continue to move northeast today.
306 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Occluded low pressure system will slowly vacate the region early tonight. Lows arriving in the low to mid 30s. Generally benign weather conditions to finish the weekend period as high pressure eases into the region with the backdrop of gradually increasing geopotential heights. Moderating thermal profile under a high degree of insolation yields above average temperatures Sunday - readings peaking in the low to mid 50s.
Then high pressure will build in for the beginning of the week. High pressure will build in through the period.
415 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 19Z sfc analysis shows a deep area of low pressure moving off to the northeast with cyclonic flow still affecting eastern Kentucky. Currently they range from mid 40s northwest to the low 60s still in the far east where some sun has been available for much of the afternoon. They all depict the current trough over the region departing to the east as the initial short wave moves into New England this evening and the southern tail moves through the Deep South and the southern Appalachians later tonight and early Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): High pressure initially will control the forecast, spreading over the area and shifting east tonight and Sunday. A sharp, mid-level trough will dig into the Southwest United States on Sunday, however, resulting in High Plains pressure falls and a tightening gradient. Southeast winds will begin to strengthen Sunday night, pulling Gulf moisture and low clouds across deep South Texas and the Lower RGV. Coastal shower chances will increase Sunday night with a weak warm front moving back north, and a few showers may also get pulled across eastern sections of the CWA.
135 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A front exits the piedmont by this evening, with northwest winds brining in cooler air tonight into Sunday.
300 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 The upper level ridge axis over the state will shift to the east tonight, with mild and increasing southwest flow across the forecast area through Sunday. By late in the day, we will see moisture increase sufficiently ahead of the next digging storm system to bring scattered snow showers into parts of the high country. That said, we'll still be quite mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s over the plains, with a few 70 degree readings in the lower elevations.
The higher stratiform cloud bases combined with the drier layer between the surface and cloud bases resulted in the virga for much of the morning hours. Wind-related impacts will be limited as the gusts are expected to remain between 20-30 mph in the Valley, and locally stronger gusts for the wind-prone mountain gaps, peaks, canyons, and ridgetops.
The aforementioned Atlantic ridge has continued to build westward into the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters, allowing for winds to continue slackening to light to gentle southeast breezes. Visibile satellite imagery also emphasizes this ridge our skies have remained mostly clear for the past 24 hours. All of this combined has allowed temperatures to steadily increase to the mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s.
1117 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern Midlands this afternoon as a cold front crosses the region.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft moving eastward through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across much of Texas. Ongoing quiet pattern will continue tonight into Sunday as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies and through the Western High Plains while a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels remains dominant throughout western Kansas. Milder temperatures are likely tonight as developing southerlies induced by a slowly strengthening lee side trough begin to draw slightly warmer air into the region. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F) by early Sunday morning with the lower 40s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Deepening lee side troughing will strengthen low level southerlies Sunday, enhancing warm air advection into western Kansas with H85 temperatures pushing a little above 15C.
Sunday will be cooler with some lingering showers possible in central New York. Instability has increased to over 500 J/kg due to temperatures around 70 with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Late tonight will be a break before showers return Sunday with the upper level trough and multiple short waves. This clears out late in the day with the trough east of us. Sunday night will have slow clearing as drier air moves in ahead of high pressure.
151 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday, with briefly cooler weather this weekend.
These conditions will be short-lived as a strong Pacific Cold Front is already crossing the Washington Cascades. The timing of the cold front is around 6pm MDT/ 5pm PDT, as it will begin to affect north-central and northwest Montana.
315 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Cloudy and occasionally wet weather has persisted behind a cold front this afternoon. Overnight lows could be a bit tricky as the timing of the clearing will have an impact on how cold sites could get, but generally expecting our western zones to have the coldest temperatures where clearing will be in place longest, while areas off to the east will be slightly 'warmer. ' Sunday should be pleasant by mid-March standards as it will feature plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs climbing into the low and mid 60s.
510 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Rockies with trof along the west coast. At the surface, trof/warm front crossing the western Dakotas. Upper ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains tonight, with broad southwest flow and warm advection continuing. Strong cold front will move into northeast WY in the afternoon and far western SD in the early evening, with very gusty northwest winds expected.
As front moves through the region overnight, additional showers and an isolated storm may be possible mainly north of Orlando late tonight, but PoPs still remain on the low side. Increasing lower cloud cover producing IFR/MVFR cigs expected with passing cold front overnight through Sunday morning, with improving conditions to VFR from north to south through tomorrow. Southerly winds 10-15 knots will become west-northwest late tonight as a cold front begins to push through the waters.
High pressure is already departing toward the east this evening. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Following dry and mild conditions this afternoon, an upper trough approaching the west coast will translate across the western U. Longer term, ensembles show upper ridging returning to the region for the middle part of the upcoming week with an expected rebound in temperatures. PATTERN: High pressure currently in control over the region, but a low pressure trough and some isolated rain showers are moving in through western Montana.
Cloudy and occasionally wet weather has persisted behind a cold front this afternoon. Overnight lows could be a bit tricky as the timing of the clearing will have an impact on how cold sites could get, but generally expecting our western zones to have the coldest temperatures where clearing will be in place longest, while areas off to the east will be slightly 'warmer. ' Sunday should be pleasant by mid-March standards as it will feature plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs climbing into the low and mid 60s.
820 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday, with briefly cooler weather this weekend.
813 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Aviation - Drizzle/light rain ending this evening The low pressure system over Lake Huron will track off to the east this evening. Also the low level convergence weakens.
A strong low-level cold front is moving into south-central Idaho, and is bringing a substantial increase in west-northwesterly winds in its wake. Much cooler and drier conditions are on track otherwise for Sunday. Mostly VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR and mountain obscuration in rain/snow showers along a cold front. Showers were developing in southeast Oregon ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The cold front will move through southeast Oregon late this afternoon and southwest Idaho this evening, accompanied by gusts to around 45 mph. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal.
19Z sfc analysis shows a deep area of low pressure moving off to the northeast with cyclonic flow still affecting eastern Kentucky. Currently they range from mid 40s northwest to the low 60s still in the far east where some sun has been available for much of the afternoon. They all depict the current trough over the region departing to the east as the initial short wave moves into New England this evening and the southern tail moves through the Deep South and the southern Appalachians later tonight and early Sunday.
721 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A cold front is moving east through the Mid-Atlantic, and will move off the coast tonight.
The influence of high pressure approaching the upper Midwest begins to show in Lower MI after midnight. Occluded low pressure system will slowly vacate the region early tonight. Lows arriving in the low to mid 30s. Generally benign weather conditions to finish the weekend period as high pressure eases into the region with the backdrop of gradually increasing geopotential heights. Moderating thermal profile under a high degree of insolation yields above average temperatures Sunday - readings peaking in the low to mid 50s.
Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of precipitation all are in the forecast tomorrow.
811 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 19Z sfc analysis shows a deep area of low pressure moving off to the northeast with cyclonic flow still affecting eastern Kentucky. Currently they range from mid 40s northwest to the low 60s still in the far east where some sun has been available for much of the afternoon. They all depict the current trough over the region departing to the east as the initial short wave moves into New England this evening and the southern tail moves through the Deep South and the southern Appalachians later tonight and early Sunday.
The upper level ridge axis over the state will shift to the east tonight, with mild and increasing southwest flow across the forecast area through Sunday. By late in the day, we will see moisture increase sufficiently ahead of the next digging storm system to bring scattered snow showers into parts of the high country. That said, we'll still be quite mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s over the plains, with a few 70 degree readings in the lower elevations.
923 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler for the first day of Spring with gusty northwest winds and rain/snow showers over the Alleghenies on Sunday.
702 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Our dry weather pattern will continue for the remainder of the weekend as an upper level ridge works its way across the state. Southerly winds overnight will keep our temperatures relatively warmer compared to this morning. On Sunday, an upper level trough will begin to deepen over the Desert Southwest.
But all guidance favors mid 30s on the low end tonight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 67 39 70 52 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 64 39 70 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 65 38 70 46 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 59 35 68 43 / 10 0 0 0 0.
534 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday, with briefly cooler weather this weekend.
1032 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler for the first day of Spring with gusty northwest winds and rain/snow showers over the Alleghenies on Sunday.
904 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Rain chances will linger through the weekend with crossing low pressure, but a quiet beginning of the work week is anticipated. Scattered showers will continue this eve with the encroachment of broad upper low pressure.
Then high pressure will build in for the beginning of the week. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s in the far east. High pressure will build in through the period.
Sunday will be much cooler with some rain showers possible in central New York.
1054 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler for the first day of Spring with gusty northwest winds and rain/snow showers over the Alleghenies on Sunday.
919 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A cold front crosses the area tonight.
Cooler temperatures tonight will lead to areas of frost across the area and sub-freezing temperatures across portions of the interior. Warmer temperatures are expected during the coming week, with daytime highs over 80 degrees across parts of the interior during mid-week.
921 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Clouds and associated patchy light drizzle will continue to move out of the area overnight as the low pressure center from last night's storm system pulls away and travels down the St Lawrence Valley. Cloudy and occasionally wet weather has persisted behind a cold front this afternoon. Overnight lows could be a bit tricky as the timing of the clearing will have an impact on how cold sites could get, but generally expecting our western zones to have the coldest temperatures where clearing will be in place longest, while areas off to the east will be slightly 'warmer. ' Sunday should be pleasant by mid-March standards as it will feature plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs climbing into the low and mid 60s.
728 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 VFR early tonight will give way to MVFR/IFR cigs and some isolated MVFR vsbys from some patchy fog after 06Z as a weak cold front sinks south through the area. /issued 249 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ Lines of deep convection in the C to NE Gulf this afternoon as series of vort maxes move through the upper trough. But models have backed off the POPS, rainfall and severe weather potential for the entire area tonight into Sunday as the approaching upper trough is not expected to be as deep and the upper dynamics are lifting quickly to the NE out of the region leaving weaker support.
Have edit the hourly grids, yet didn't change the lows for tonight as I think they are in line.
943 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Mostly clear skies were noted over the Keys this evening, with current temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in the lower 70s. A trough will be exiting the southeast U. coast this evening, with high pressure lagging over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A col point will pass by to our north, eventually yielding to the backed, northeast winds of the Gulf coastal high pressure.
728 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A cold front crosses the area this evening.
949 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Sunday will be much cooler with rain showers, especially from the Twin Tiers northward.
1213 AM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022 Aviation - Drizzle/light rain ending this evening The low pressure system over Lake Huron will track off to the east this evening. Also the low level convergence weakens.
At the upper levels, a trough is swinging through the area with ridging to our west. Eventually the trough axis will move east of the area into the mid Atlantic region and upper level heights will be on the rise today. High pressure settles over the TN valley tonight. Skies will remain mostly clear and it will be cooler overnight, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, however some low to mid 30s are expected in the typical deeper valley cold spots. High pressure slides to the east on Monday and should be off the SE coast by Monday evening.
As the upper level ridge shifts across the local area overnight through Sunday in response to an area of low pressure digging across the desert southwest. These warmer temperatures will further exasperate low relative humidities across the region Sunday afternoon. Given the high confidence for strong/gusty winds and low relative humidity values. As the aforementioned upper low across the southwest then shifts into the plains on Monday. with a bit of snow mixed in primarily west of the Highway 281 corridor where the cold front is expected to stall.