Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, an increasing northeast flow off Lake Michigan tonight will allow the lower conditions to return this evening, with IFR cigs/vsbys expected across the southeast. This is part of a very large trough system that extends up to James Bay, Canada. Temps aloft are quite cold in the core of the low, down to -22C. At the surface, a low pressure center will drift across southern Wisconsin with dewpoints in the 50sF. The weak convergence associated with the low, coupled with the steep lapse rates due to the moist low levels and cold temps aloft will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Short wave perturbations rotating around the upper low will help to encourage precip development. The rain should focus best along the weak low level trough axis during peak heat this afternoon where convergence will be maximized.
/Issued 355 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ A cold front will push south across the area today, while an upper low will move south from Minnesota into northeast Arkansas by late Wednesday. A few showers may develop in northwest Arkansas Wednesday due to the cold air aloft associated with the nearby upper low.
Flat, transitory ridge slides into the picture this afternoon with pressure gradients relaxing. This will allow the gusty nature to the wind fields to ease up a bit today with even lighter winds anticipated for Wednesday as the ridge slides east into the plains. This front will be arriving over our northern zones by late in the night with showers developing as lapse rates steepen in response to cooler air moving in aloft.
336 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 One weak area of low pressure will track through Quebec today as another weak low tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Mid- Atlantic low will track to our south on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds over our region.
A cold front/upper level trough near the northern Nebraska border. no strong CAA present overnight so area will see slightly below normal lows in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday will range in the lower to mid 60s. allowing for strong H5 ridging to push east out into the Plains region thru Wednesday night.
332 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A sfc cold front extends for central IA into eastern KS. An upper low over centered over the Midwest will move south into northeast MO by 12z/7am Wed. Wednesday: The closed upper low over MO will move sse into TN by Wed night.
A cold front/upper level trough near the northern Nebraska border. no strong CAA present overnight so area will see slightly below normal lows in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday will range in the lower to mid 60s. At the start of the period, a closed low spins in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The corresponding trough extends to the southwest of the low, leaving nearly zonal flow across the High Plains. Multiple disturbances pass through the trough during the extended as the low gradually moves across the US/Canadian border.
Warm and dry weather conditions are expected for today as an upper level ridge advances across the region with rising heights. The ridge axis will shift downstream of the CWA as the next low pressure system approaches from the west on Wednesday. This system will push a cold front through the area with a chance for showers and general thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. Given these arguments will let the High Wind Watch ride and future shifts can decide on the upgrade. Main feature for midweek on continues to be a strong upper low swinging across western Canada.
110 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. Fries Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time.
Temperatures are expected to be a bit cooler today in the post-frontal air mass, but still expect widespread 50s or possibly low 60s. Warm and dry for Wed as upper- level ridging rapidly builds into the region and H7 temps climb to +10 to +12 deg C.
Of more importance will be the closed low currently taking shape over the Upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms into Middle TN tonight. On Wednesday, the trough moves on and the closed upper low should push south through the mid-state towards the Alabama state line.
306 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Deep longwave trough developing across the middle portion of the country this morning associated with a well defined upper jet structure along the east, south and western flanks of this vigorous trough. The center of this closed low will slowly shift southward today into the Central Plains and as it does, a spoke of PVA will be exiting the OK/TX Pndl and into the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Splitting upper jet structure in association with this wave in the trough will only serve to enhance upper level forcing as a strong surface cold front accompanies the feature aloft.
Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the lower to mid 50s.
Look for cooler conditions through most of the week as a onshore flow combines with the marine layer. Synoptically the ridge of high pressure that has been overhead the past few days will being to flatten out later today. At the same time an upper level low moving to the coast of BC will move into the Northern Rockies by tomorrow. The combination along with a deeper marine layer will lead to much cooler conditions working their way to all parts of our CWA.
309 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Current obs are showing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing to our north behind a cold front moving into the Permian Basin, and models are in good agreement that this area of rainfall will spread south into our CWA later this morning. Stability is increasing behind the cold front so no severe storms are expected.
248 AM PDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure aloft will bring the hottest temperatures of the week for desert areas today. Coastal areas will be cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog spreading into the far western valleys this morning.
This is part of a very large trough system that extends up to James Bay, Canada. Temps aloft are quite cold in the core of the low, down to -22C. At the surface, a low pressure center will drift across southern Wisconsin with dewpoints in the 50sF. The weak convergence associated with the low, coupled with the steep lapse rates due to the moist low levels and cold temps aloft will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Short wave perturbations rotating around the upper low will help to encourage precip development. The rain should focus best along the weak low level trough axis during peak heat this afternoon where convergence will be maximized.
Continued cloud cover and pcpn will keep temperatures slightly below or about 4-6 degrees cooler than late May normals and in very close agreement with NAM/GFS MOS as well as the Super Blend.
A weak low pressure center will approach the Southwest California coast on Wednesday.
337 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Deep upper level trough stretching from Minnesota back across the CONUS into the desert SW this morning. Surface map also has an elongated trough from weak low pressure center over southern WI. Cold front across the center of the country back into the Southern Plains. A weak pressure gradient with the actual trough has light and somewhat variable winds over the region. Overnight the lingering showers and thunderstorms will also limit the drop of temps behind the cold front passage, although the winds will come around to more northerly. Wednesday expected to be cloudy and cooler behind the cold front. with low pops for scattered showers again as the upper low is very slow to move out of the region. Models having a hard time with the evolution of the low beyond midweek still.
Much Cooler and Rainy late Tue night and Wednesday. Deepening upper low diving south out of MN will move to the Show Me State tonight and near MEM Wed evening. With the deepening low, cannot rule out a stronger cell developing near the warm frontal boundary associated with the low, and we may see couple of isol stronger wind gusts in convection as the low deepens.
Still the main action is along the cold front later this afternoon through the evening hours. MUCAPE is projected to exceed 3000 J/kg across much of the region this afternoon with surface dewpoints hovering in the upper-60s north to the low/mid-70s south. With the approach of the mid-level trough/cold pool we should be able to see any cap fizzle and allow the parcels to grow upscale as the better forcing/ascent arrives along the frontal boundary.
Still expecting a cold front is drop down from the north-northwest later this afternoon/early evening with scattered thunderstorm activity along it. Concur with the GFS/ECMWF deterministic that an upper level disturbance will dig S/SE across the Plains during the period and reinforce/maintain the upper trough over the CNTRL CONUS. In response, a cold front is expected to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday night.
Stronger high pressure aloft will bring well above average daytime temperatures through midweek.
Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the lower to mid 50s. An upper level low will develop over the area Wednesday in response to a strong disturbance dropping into the west side of the main trof. Given the track of the low and the development of a TROWAL, widespread rainfall amounts between 0.
320 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017 The low pressure system that was located over swrn Ontario yesterday, has dropped southward across Minnesota overnight and is expected to be located in central Iowa by this evening. Have also included a slight chance of showers in those areas until early aftn, although moisture is limited and will become drier this afternoon as the upper ridge builds in from the northwest. Southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday with much warmer temperatures.
1213 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Cold front making its way into northern part of forecast area at this time. /Issued 350 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Cold front is continuing to make its way south through the region just about to exit the TX Panhandles as obs show winds shifting to northerly behind the front. Any left over showers or an isolated storm will linger through Tuesday morning as the main upper level trough axis continues to shift east bring the precipitation upstream of the axis further to the east throughout tomorrow morning. With the cold front passing and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and warm conditions today, along with light wind. An area of low pressure will move east over British Columbia this evening. As this system moves southeast through Wednesday, it will send a mostly dry cold front south across the forecast area on Wednesday.
The storms will be most focused along a cold front which will move across the entire region through the day. Dry northwest flow aloft will remain in place across the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday as a deep upper trough digs into the southeastern U. However, the cool and dry air will be very temporary with building upper level high pressure and a return of Gulf moisture.
A cold front will drop south across the area on Wednesday, bringing breezy winds and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
509 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A cold front will move through the area this morning. Overall, cooler weather is expected the next couple of days, before warming significantly late this week as upper ridge moves over the Plains.
Forecast - The ridge axis near the Keys will settle southwards nearer Cuba today and tonight as a low pressure system moves into the eastern United States. This is response to an amplified trough aloft rotating east of the Rockies. The flow across the keys will begin trending upwards early Wednesday the as the air mass rushes northwards around the ridge and towards a deepening trough moving through the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico.
Issued at 403 AM AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Low pressure will deepen across Indiana late today. tonight and Wednesday as an upper trough over the upper midwest moves southeast and develops into a closed upper low over the Ohio valley by Wednesday.
527 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 One weak area of low pressure will track through Quebec today as another weak low tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Mid- Atlantic low will track to our south on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds over our region.
509 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures, but unsettled weather will start to return on Wednesday. In general, a partly sunny forecast was thus featured, except in the ridges and points nearby where clouds may be a bit thicker. Model solutions have had substantial difficulty over the past few days managing the depiction of the digging and deepening of the mid/upper lower from the upper Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley.
This will happen as a cold front passes through the state from the Plains. Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front will arrive from the Plains today, and will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
a mid/upper ridge over the PACNW this morning is progged to translate eastward across the Central Plains on Wed-Thu bringing dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures. We may see the cap weaken in the vicinity of the dry line/cold front across Central KS and with MLCAPE around 1900 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kt, there may be a brief window for a severe storm or two across portions of Central KS Thu evening.
145 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will result in a period of mainly dry weather through Wednesday.
346 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A nearby upper low will continue bringing isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles today as it digs south through Minnesota into Iowa.
High pressure over us now will shift eastward allowing for a light easterly flow tonight. Weak isentropic lift kicks in Tuesday night ahead of that broad area of low pressure which looks to be deepening over far western Kentucky overnight. as an upper level low drops south out of Iowa. With the deepening low, cannot rule out a stronger cell developing near the warm frontal boundary associated with the low, and we may see some stronger wind gusts as the low deepens.
Reasoning for this is the weak slow moving trough that is currently moving through the area this morning. As long as this trough exists to the west, the potential will exist for quick bursts of heavy rainfall. As the short wave moves through the base of the larger upper trough, it will begin to accelerate in direction to the northeast. As the short wave lifts north and east, the possibility of any severe weather will lower significantly late tonight and by 3am the cold front should start making its way through the area bringing chances of rain downward as well.
/Today through Tonight/ A large mid/upper low pressure system currently centered over Minnesota will drop south across Iowa and Missouri today and tonight. Behind the trough and below the core of the mid/upper level trough, regional radar imagery depicts scattered light showers and it is expected that these will increase in coverage across Iowa this afternoon, coincident with the diurnal heating maximum and the low moving overhead. Presence of thunderstorms this afternoon is uncertain with little to no instability indicated by forecast and upstream profiles, but the core of the low moving overhead this afternoon. Coverage and intensity of showers/storms should gradually diminish overnight tonight, but continued light showers are expected as the low will be slow to depart to the south, with fairly deep saturation remaining in its wake.
326 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight.
Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if not cooler, generally west of US Highway 83. Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level trough moving through. On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights at h500 suppressing convection most of the area. Initially the global models track an upper low across southern Canada pulling a cold front through western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will form along the cold front.
A synoptic cold front was moving south through the Panhandle region into the Caprock of west Texas. This cold front will move south through our area today. Expect the precipitation to move into the southern half of the forecast area by this afternoon, and out of the area entirely by this evening as drier, more stable air filters in behind the cold front. Tonight, with clearing skies, diminishing winds, and dry air behind the cold front, temperatures will be cool with lows dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s. (Wednesday through memorial Day) Dry and warmer weather can be expected across West Central Texas Wednesday through the first part of the upcoming holiday weekend.
344 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will move later today. It will be breezy today across the James Valley as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the approaching high pressure center. An upper low across southern Canada will pull a cold front through western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will form along the cold front.
411 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Large upper low will move southward today along the eastern edge of the forecast area, with an attendant short wave in an east to west orientation moving through this morning. 0-1km ML cape is very minimal, and MU cape is all bottled up in the lowest kilometer with virtually none about 900mb. With a bit of gradient producing modest wind speeds, lows should stay in the lower to mid 40s.
335 AM PDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure over the region will maintain dry and hot conditions through Wednesday.
This wave is very near the main upper low and as this wave moves into the area, showers and a few storms are likely to develop across northern MO and then build southward with time. Forecast soundings show about 100 to 200 J/kg CAPE with a low freezing level and low equilibrium level. While convection will be shallow/low topped, freezing levels around 6000 to 7000 ft suggest some potential for small hail. For Wednesday, the upper low will have shifted into eastern MO or IL by the afternoon hours.
123 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight.
Look for FG/BR/cigs to slowly lift by lunch and then shwrs/tstms to become likely as the cold front moves over the area. Also seeing patchy -RA/-DZ farther W still lingering over portions of Deep E TX S of I-20 based on the low 02-03Z cigs/reduced vsbys, which also look to longer overnight as well. A brief lull in the rain is expected Tuesday morning, but we will await the arrive of the upper trough now digging SSE into the lower TX Panhandle to trigger sct to numerous areas of convection over the region by afternoon. Did make a few minor (cooler) adjustments to forecast mins tonight as well, but otherwise, the current forecast still looks good.
Additional upper energy moving through the base of the trough will pass over the state for Wednesday and allow for some strong to possibly severe storms. Winds will increase today across the area ahead of a cold front and allow for a Lake Wind Advisory. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower 80s to near 90.
340 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 An upper low is currently centered over Minnesota, and is forecast to steadily move southward today into Iowa. As it does so, it will advect cooler air into the area, both at the surface and aloft. Skies will start to clear and winds will start to decrease from west to east as high pressure builds in, but lows will depend heavily on how quickly this happens.
Upper ridge will dominate our weather today into tonight. The ridge will slide eastward tonight, allowing for an upper trough and associated surface cold front to approach the region from the west on Wednesday. Just ahead of the cold front, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible.
The high pressure axis will slowly move south for the next couple of days, with winds turning to the southwest. Winds will increase near cautionary levels tonight into Tuesday and then will reach advisory levels as a cold front approaches the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.
421 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A ridge of high pressure will exit east of the region today.
Given the recent observations and hi-res models, suspect most of the morning hours should remain fairly quiet as outflow from morning activity should tend to stabilize the lower levels. For this afternoon, the active northwest flow aloft will help drive a cold front into south central Texas. Low- level lift along this front combined with an upper trough axis and cold pool aloft should be enough to generate scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance for severe weather will decrease by mid- evening as cooler and drier air in the low-levels moves in behind the cold front. The forecast for Wednesday will remain quiet as the above mentioned upper trough axis moves east of the region.
129 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Aviation An upper low over the Great Lakes will keep the chance of rain in the forecast for the next few days.
142 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Weak high pressure overspreading western and central PA late this evening with partial clearing over central and western areas. and mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front will arrive from the Plains today, and will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
641 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A ridge of high pressure will exit east of the region today.
High temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to around 40. northeast to southwest oriented ridge axis moves into the area in between low pressure systems over Kentucky and north of Montana.
High pressure will shift gradually eastward across the Great Basin Tuesday into Wednesday then move off to the east.
A strong cold front is expected to move through central Idaho and northwest Montana early Wednesday morning, spreading into the rest of western Montana by late Wednesday morning.
Main forecast challenge in the short term comes today into this evening as a mid/upper level level low moves east across the lower Oh Valley. The low will likely generate an area of light precipitation beginning over southeast MO this morning. However, surface temperatures are likely to stay a couple to a several degrees above freezing, and much of the precip will be light and fall during the daylight hours.
This trough will drop south through the forecast area today bringing rain showers ahead of it across the region.
Temperatures behind the front are running about 10 degrees cooler. Winds are expected to increase to around 15 MPH with gusts to 25 area wide by late this morning and will continue through the afternoon before weakening during the evening as high pressure begins to build across the region.
1015 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A cold front is currently located just northwest of our area across eastern and southern KY, with a line of showers just ahead of it moving into SW VA. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level trough is located near western KY.
In its wake a reinforcing shot of cooler air is currently near the Pecos River and heading south toward Mexico.