Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The ridge axis will shift east Tuesday night as an upper trough pushes east.
An upper level ridge will control our weather for much of the coming week. Starting Tuesday, an upper level ridge will build across New Mexico and Far West Texas and that will help warm our high temperatures for much of the week 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Mostly clear skies will dominate the Land of Enchantment through the week as a ridge of high pressure centers itself over the region. Winds were somewhat stronger than expected with the passage of the front and remain gusty early this morning around Clovis, but they should taper off by daybreak The story through the remainder week will be the building ridge of high pressure over the Southwest. This ridge is currently centered over California and is quite evident on water vapor this morning. Models are in good agreement that the ridge will continue to build eastward and should be centered along the NM/AZ border by Tuesday evening. Temperatures will respond to this ridge accordingly with 700mb temperatures in the +6-10C range over most of the state by mid-week.
342 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Upper ridge forecast to build slowly eastward from the Great Basin across the Rockies Tue and Wed, leading to very warm and dry conditions across the area both days. Heights and mid level temps continue to rise on Wed as ridge approaches, with Colorado Springs and Pueblo nearing record highs, though current forecast is just a couple degf short.
Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic which predict the upper trough to continue to move across the ERN CONUS during the period with the CWA/MSA under a region of subsidence. This surge will result in the advection of cooler/drier air and maintain offshore flow over the MSA tonight. will forecast SCEC conditions over the Offshore MSA (slightly warmer SST values.
The GFS long wave model tells us that the overall weather pattern will switch from high pressure ridging over the western United States to a broad trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
302 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 An area of high pressure is expected to advance towards the east over southwest Ontario Canada tonight and through the day Tuesday, keeping the Northland within the anti-cyclonic flow associated with the high. Both the GFS/NAM models are showing a good slug of moisture as higher relative humidity values in the low-levels sweep southward over northwest Wisconsin. Elsewhere, high pressure should remain in control over the region through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight due to the high pressure overhead. This, coupled with the light winds associated with the high, should lead to a good radiational cooling night tonight.
/ Issued 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Cold front moved through the state today and has ushered in some cold temperatures for the next few days as a cold air mass settles in over the state of Arkansas. Tonight temperatures will be near or below freezing for the northern portions of the state. Not sure how long the temperatures will be below freezing so only have issued a freeze warning for the northern tiers of the counties. Some areas to just south may need to be expanded into the warning, however, don't think freezing temperatures will last more than an hour or so in these areas.
Forecast area under fast northwest flow aloft in between upper high over southern California and low pressure over the Great Lakes. Warmer air moves into the western and southwestern parts of the area supporting highs in the mid/upper 60s while across the east only mid 40s to around 50 expected.
1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Upper closed low over the Gulf of Alaska and a trough of low pressure from the Hudson Bay into the Missouri Valley with sharpening ridge between the two over the western CONUS. Light snow to develop tonight mainly over north central Nebraska to the east of Highway 83 on the nose of 150kt+ jet rounding the upper ridge today. After a quiet start Tuesday, northwest flow aloft will usher a disturbance across the High Plains and work in conjunction with a mid-level warm front to produce light qpf. At the surface, modified arctic air remains, thus light freezing precipitation is possible. Any potential freezing precip should be light as the model consensus suggests storm total QPF of a tenth of an inch or much less, with much of that as snow or rain.
920 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
This slightly warmer air along with slightly higher winds will keep lows even warmer Friday night.
503 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper-level low finally pulling well east through the Great Lakes, but lingering confluence zone back through the Northern Plains between shearing upper trough and the main westerlies through the Central Plains. Clouds will hang tough once again, and with a bit drier and cooler airmass should be able to see lows a couple degrees cooler than last night. Weak surface ridging will settle across the area through Friday, allowing some drier air to filter in on north to northwest flow. Highs with the lesser wind and slow erosion of clouds should remain mainly in the lower to mid 30s.
928 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday.
Northerly winds prevailed in the lower levels with west to west-southwest winds observed throughout the remainder of the sounding.
Things change moving into the overnight period Friday night as a warm front will advance northward to the EWX/CRP border and the 850 mb LLJ increases to 40+ kts.
An area of low pressure diving toward Baja California will bring gusty north winds to much of our region tonight through Friday.
High pressure centered over the area today has resulted in plenty of sunshine and cool but pleasant afternoon temperatures. The high shifts to the east of the area by tonight. Winds turn more easterly and moisture increases across the region Friday morning as a deepening upper trough digs south across the western US into northern Mexico.
Highs will be cooler Friday ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
After a chilly start to the day temperatures have moderately rebounded with many spots in the upper 50s to the lower 60s under widespread sunshine.
A quiet weather pattern will persist through tonight and tomorrow with generally zonal H300 flow in place tonight, transitioning to more southwesterly flow tomorrow as a broad longwave trough moves into the western CONUS. All operational models continue to spread moisture north across the southern plains northeast of an upper low over northern Mexico and breaking out precipitation by Friday afternoon south of Kansas.
725 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Currently at the surface, the cold front that has been working through the area today is slowly progressing through the southern part of the forecast area, and is expected to clear the region overnight. Area surface observations are showing a sharp moisture gradient in place across the forecast area, with dew points in the 50s over the Nature Coast, and generally in the upper 60s and low 70s south and east of Tampa Bay, showing evidence of the drier and cooler air filling in behind the front. The forecast generally looks on track, with significantly cooler low temperatures tonight than what was seen last night for all but the southern most extent of the forecast area.
/issued 258 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Zonal flow aloft will become more southwesterly tonight as a short wave trough digs south along the West Coast and cuts off over Northwest Mexico. Plentiful East Pacific moisture will pump over the area into the ridge building over East Tex and the Lower Miss Valley, supporting overrunning. At the surface, high pressure will spread out over the Southeast United States under the ridge, interacting with pressure falls upstream over Mexico being induced by the cut off low.
906 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Main change was to add possibility of drizzle or freezing drizzle to areas north of Pittsburgh and along the ridges. However, forecast low temperatures will hover around freezing and relatively warm ground and road temperatures are still in place.
Across the southern tier of the CWA, remaining clouds and moisture associated with frontal boundary will pass southeast of the region tonight, as high pressure builds from the West while cold front continues southward over central Florida this evening. Drier air, light wind and clearing skies will allow low temps to fall into the upper 30s-low 40s interior SE GA to the low 50s Flagler beaches and SE Marion County. With cold front travelling down the peninsula this evening. high pressure will build from the West through Friday.
Expecting to see a subtle slackening of the pressure gradient as a low pressure center continues to move off to the northeast, so winds may subside somewhat into the morning hours. Stuck toward the lower end of model temps for tomorrow given the expected clouds.
Tomorrow should be a near repeat of day, perhaps slightly warmer if we break out into sun.
923 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Current forecast on track with mention of patchy fog, intermittent freezing drizzle for central ND, and slight chances of light snow. Intermittent light patchy freezing drizzle continues to fall over central areas of the ND. Chances for light freezing drizzle and light snow will continue through the overnight hours. Concerns for the short term involve the patchy freezing drizzle across the central and east with some patchy fog tonight. Lack of seeder-feeder ice crystals will also support some patchy freezing drizzle through the night north and east. Will not mention freezing drizzle as bufkit soundings appear to dissipate the weak low level vertical motion that seems to be supporting the drizzle Thursday afternoon.
Winds will remain light with some QG and orographic influence aiding in snow fall over the higher terrain. The upper low will drop into the desert SW increasing mid level moisture from the Gulf into Colorado. Snow fall over the higher foothills will be higher then the lower foothills due to the upslope not being very deep and limited moisture. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler then today with highs hovering around the freezing mark and lows in the teens.
This trough is not really moving all that fast, in fact will elongate northeast-southwest over the next 24hrs, effectively remaining overhead through Friday. Temperatures will be a few degrees colder on Friday with the trough overhead, with relatively light winds continuing through this time. On Friday night, a disturbance moving southeast across Wyoming on the nose of a strong northwest jet will nudge the stagnant trough to the east. High pressure building in from the west on the wake of this disturbance, combined with pressure falls expected to occur across the plains ahead of the trough will strengthen the sfc pressure gradient rapidly across southeast Wyoming Friday night.
Intermittent light patchy freezing drizzle continues to fall over central areas of the ND. Chances for light freezing drizzle and light snow will continue through the overnight hours. Concerns for the short term involve the patchy freezing drizzle across the central and east with some patchy fog tonight. Lack of seeder-feeder ice crystals will also support some patchy freezing drizzle through the night north and east. Will not mention freezing drizzle as bufkit soundings appear to dissipate the weak low level vertical motion that seems to be supporting the drizzle Thursday afternoon.
An approaching upper trough to our west is signaling a return of low ceilings. Once ceilings develop, they may lower, as the lower levels become more saturated. /issued 357 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper trough will deepen over the southwestern CONUS tonight, with a closed low developing over southwestern Arizona Friday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will be warmer than last night, with lows expected to be in the 40s. With isentropic lift and the potential for saturation in the low-levels and a warm air advection pattern, the models hint at patchy drizzle/fog developing in the morning. (Friday through next Thursday) The mid and upper level low pressure circulation path is on track with global forecast models and is currently seen on water vapor imagery moving through Southern California.
Expect highs to top out in the low to mid 40s over southern IN/northern KY and upper 40s/lower 50s over southern KY.
scattered to broken mid level clouds are forecast to increase from west to east as an upper level low drops southeast into Northern Mexico.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 57 35 54 / 0 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 53 33 51 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 32 54 33 51 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 49 29 48 / 0 10 10 10.
As of mid afternoon, a closed upper low was over eastern Ontario and western Quebec with a general broad trough over much of the CONUS and North America. At the sfc, high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley with ridging extending into the OH and TN Valleys. This evening through Friday, the upper level low will move into the St Lawrence Valley and Maritimes with a couple of weak disturbances rotating around it across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure will continue building into the area.
616 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
545 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 A weak mid level ridge is currently over the region providing fair weather today and for tomorrow as well.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is deepening as it drops southward across the Great Basin. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure extends from the high plains of eastern Montana southward into the high plains of eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
This is ahead of a cold front currently over the panhandle of Florida which is forecast to move closer into Central Fl late this afternoon.
706 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday.
900 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will continue across the area. /Issued 220 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016/ High pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterdays frontal system that has moved off the eastern seaboard. Mostly clear skies expected to continue through the short term as this high pressure ridge dominates the weather pattern for the next few days. A cooler airmass has moved in over the region with temps tonight expected to dip down into the 30s across most of the area.
5 km and some omega (ahead of a short wave trough moving south through Minnesota) in this layer, added drizzle to the forecast through midnight tonight. At 2 PM, a closed low was located over eastern Ontario and western Quebec. With this low moving away from the area, much of the area has been dry this afternoon. The only other issue tonight looks to be the low temperatures. Due to this, opted to raise the low temperatures closer to these values tonight.
High pressure was over northwest Mississippi this afternoon. The high will move slowly east tonight reaching north Alabama by Friday morning. By Friday, skies should remain mostly sunny as high pressure remains just east of the region. Temperatures will be a little warmer than normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Chances for very light freezing drizzle/flurries or fog will be the main challenge for the short term. Obs reports of flurries or freezing drizzle have become more sparse in the last few hours. Model soundings continue to show the classic pattern for freezing drizzle, and the 900mb level has plenty of RH and periods of rising omega in the layer overnight. Will continue to keep patchy freezing drizzle and isolated flurries going overnight. The patchy freezing drizzle/flurries may continue into the early part of the day, but cyclonic flow decreases and flow aloft becomes more westerly, so think that the threat for nuisance wintery precip will be decreased.
Short term concern for short term is threat for light snow/freezing drizzle overnight. Current surface analysis indicates scattered light snow with some patchy freezing drizzle reported across the mn portion of the forecast area with only light snow in NW WI. This situation will continue though most of the overnight which may cause the scattered light snow/patchy freezing drizzle across most of the region.
/Issued 220 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016/ High pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterdays frontal system that has moved off the eastern seaboard. Mostly clear skies expected to continue through the short term as this high pressure ridge dominates the weather pattern for the next few days. A cooler airmass has moved in over the region with temps tonight expected to dip down into the 30s across most of the area.
There also has been reports of some flurries and light drizzle/freezing drizzle occurring this afternoon. Thus, have included slight chances of light snow/flurries along with patchy freezing drizzle through the night.
633 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
910 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night.
950 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
Frost and below freezing minimum temperatures will occur each night in the coldest locations of the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County desert. Short wave trough continues to move through the region with the axis now over southern California. Cannot rule out some very light snow showers in the high Sierra late this aftn into the early evening. The trough will deepen over the lower Colorado River Valley tonight as an upper ridge builds in over the Pacific Northwest. Thus, the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a Warning and also included the Sierra zone down to the Kern County line.
The seasonably cool and dry weather will come to an end tomorrow as an upper level low moves in.
941 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of this week. We've experienced a big change in air mass since this time last night when PWat was 140-150% of normal and now it's 40-50% of normal, under the influence of high pressure building from the west and a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Look for a range of low temps from 36-37F in the normally cooler spots of the Francis Marion Nat'l Forest and in the area of southeast Georgia from near Claxton to Metter and Millen to 45-47F along the immediate coast, in downtown Charleston and near Lake Moultrie.
Overnight, the high pressure should begin to slide eastward, which will cause our surface winds to back southerly by morning. With a slight uptick in cloud cover, temperatures over southeast KS and far southwest Missouri will likely only drop into the lower 30s overnight tonight. Friday, a trough digs southward across northwestern Mexico and closes off.
655 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A departing cold front will push off the Southeast coast today. High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
Otherwise, slightly warmer overnight low temperatures expected across east Texas with temps forecast to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
536 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. An upper low will remain the dominant feature during this portion of the forecast.
1017 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Scattered sprinkles or flurries overnight as cold advection continues under closed low moving across eastern Canada. Southwest flow will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers well north through friday, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges.
Otherwise, Cloudy and cool conditions will persist with lows in the lower and middle 30s, and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
440 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Tonight through Friday: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad mid to upper level trough over the CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the ArkLaMiss. Clear skies and light winds will help temps to fall to around freezing in the northeast. Overall, lows tonight will be from the lower 30s north to the middle 30s elsewhere. For Friday dry conditions will continue as high pressure provides another seasonably cool day.
Surface temperatures in valley locations are at or just slightly above freezing, with little in the way of snowfall accumulation likely through the evening. This maximum will occur on Friday afternoon, however with only seasonably average PWATs and a cold front quickly crossing the area by Friday evening, snowfall totals will likely end up in the 2 to 4 inch range - well below advisory criteria in the mountains.
Cold front shifting south of Melbourne this evening will gradually move into south Florida tonight. Northerly winds will transport cooler air into the area overnight with lows expected in the low to mid 50s north of I-4, low to mid 60s south and upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate Treasure Coast.
The upper low that impacted the High Plains earlier in the week is making its way further into Canada just northeast of the Great Lakes, while a disturbance anticipated to bring precipitation chances to the southern zones Friday night pushes over the southwestern CONUS. Overnight into Friday, flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwesterly as an upper trough deepens into a closed low over Arizona. Strong surface ridging is in place over a good portion of the Central/Northern plains with the arrival of these systems. This ridging will allow for blocking of any major moisture to really work up into the CWA.
That ridge center is expected to shift to over Alabama during tonight into Friday morning.
541 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad trough across much of the CONUS. Heights will build over the South and Midwest on Friday as ridging re-establishes itself across the Southeast. Mainly a temperature/cloud forecast this period as the aforementioned ridging aloft keeps the region precipitation free through the period. Latest indications are that areas along the I-70 corridor will likely be cloud-free the longest, thus have gone a bit cooler in these areas (in the mid 20s). With building heights aloft, expect temperatures a bit warmer than today, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
556 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of this week. For the early evening update we opened up a slightly bigger range of low temps from the normally cooler spots of the Francis Marion Nat'l Forest and in the area of southeast Georgia from near Claxton to Metter and Millen (36-37F) to the immediate coast, in downtown Charleston and near lake Moultrie (45-47F).
945 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of this week. We've experienced a big change in air mass since this time last night when PWat was 140-150% of normal and now it's 40-50% of normal, under the influence of high pressure building from the west and a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Look for a range of low temps from 36-37F in the normally cooler spots of the Francis Marion Nat'l Forest and in the area of southeast Georgia from near Claxton to Metter and Millen to 45-47F along the immediate coast, in downtown Charleston and near Lake Moultrie.
/Tonight through Friday/ Broad cyclonic flow to continue over Iowa tonight into Friday as the upper low continues to spin off to the northeast. A deep trough will begin to establish itself across the desert southwest with ridging building in from the southern plains into the upper midwest.