Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
336 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 High pressure will dominate the area today and then shift to the east tonight. A weak cold front will move south across the area Sunday.
A weak surface frontal boundary/trough will be sinking southwestward into the area this afternoon into this evening. Will be watching for a slight chance of showers/storms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with increasing moisture transport ahead of a cold front moving through MN into the area.
258 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 A weak short wave trough embedded in northwest flow is spreading extensive mid and high clouds across the region with some showers from southeast SD into south central Iowa where higher moisture levels exist. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest continues to push dry and mild air into the CWA. Clouds associated with the short wave trough should begin exiting the area by late morning leading to plenty of sunshine today.
344 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Today and tonight: Northerly flow aloft continues to persist over the region as the subtropical ridge sits off to our west. A small, mid-level closed low sits over the northeastern Gulf this morning as conditions are pretty quiet down at the surface. High temps will rise into the low 90s. Upper ridging will take hold over the Intermountain West, while upper troughing will be in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. As the upper ridge slowly migrates east, it will bring lower rain chances to western portions of the forecast area but also bring warmer temperatures to the region.
Mid/upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will slowly get lifted north from a large short wave trough to the north. Slightly warmer temps today but still a shade below normal. Southwest flow pattern aloft over our forecast area this period with weak upper trough west of the area and upper ridge well offshore. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s inland, around 90 coast Sunday.
An upper level ridge will remain anchored near and just east of the Four Corners region through the short term. South Central Texas will remain situated on the eastern edge of the ridge. Slightly cooler across central and eastern areas today as mid and high clouds spill in from the north.
1046 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with high pressure over AZ/NM.
A weak mid- level impulse rotating around 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area will pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early tonight.
A weak upper level low will continue to slowly lift northward from the Gulf into the western portion of the CWA today. Expect highs in the low 90s today, except the upper 80s along the coast.
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across NM, eastern AZ, eastern UT and CO through Tonight. After mostly cloudy skies this morning, skies will become partly cloudy during the afternoon with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s. The upper level ridge across the southwestern US will gradually build east into the southern high Plains.
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Mid-upper level ridging will keep the region dry. Models in good agreement (although a bit uncertain on timing) indicating a cold front (extending from a system in Canada) sagging southward through the region. With temperatures near 90F and dewpoints near 70F, moderate instability will set up ahead of the cold front. Ahead of the cold front expect hot and humid conditions with heat index values in the mid-90s.
1050 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 West to northwest flow aloft persists over the Upper MS Valley late this week on the periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region through the central plains. At the surface, weak high pressure has kept most of the area dry with showers/storms mainly remaining out to the west over the northern plains with weak return flow/moisture transport. Locally, another mainly dry evening/night is expected with low- level ridging showing no signs of budging. Temps on Sunday look to be very similar to Saturday, with highs likely pushing 90 in some of the warmer river valley locations.
Winds will become east/northeast through the period as low level ridge builds over region.
An upper disturbance embedded in the flow rotating around the upper high centered in New Mexico enhanced the thunderstorm development on the TON early this evening, with a few severe storms developing N and NW of Sells.
/Updated at 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019/ A weak upper level trough still extends southward down the Appalachians and into the state, with a low spinning over the north central Gulf.
247 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Water vapor imagery indicates mid/upper level moistures is located within the subtropical ridge which is centered e-se of 4 Corners region. Models suggest there will be a shrtwv trof that tracks swwd Sat night-Sun from SE NM into far W TX which again will keep PoPs mostly confined to SE NM and parts of the Trans Pecos. Temps will be cooler Sun, close to normal most areas. NAM12 has an outlier solution with shrtwv trof remaining across SE NM thru Mon PM and then tracks sewd across PB. The subtropical ridge is determined to put the hurt on SE NM/W TX and will likely build se Wed-Sat.
153 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 High pressure will continue to build into the region this weekend.
1240 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 A weak coastal trough will persist through Saturday before dissipating. A coastal trough will slowly move northeast along the coast on Saturday.
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 The large scale upper air pattern remains relatively unchanged since this time yesterday with an upper high/ridge centered near the four corners region and a weak elongated positively tilted upper trof stretching from the northeastern U. Temperatures today should be comparable to yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. The lower troposphere remains dominated by high pressure centered through the lower Great Lakes resulting in northeast to easterly low level flow. Fewer clouds are expected on Sunday with highs a tad warmer than today.
The areas with the highest potential for fog will be at locations that received rainfall this evening.
Winds will switch to the northeast later this morning behind a weak cold front.
Similar setup for Saturday with an upper high holding over the 4 corners area and keeping the atmosphere capped for the most part. Persistent weather expected over the area this period as the CWA looks to be under a generally northwesterly upper flow on the southwest periphery of an upper low near Hudson Bay.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to provide warm and dry weather to central Illinois today. Afternoon high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, mainly in the middle 80s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
Weak slow moving upper trof will still bring late morning and afternoon buildups with scattered showers and isolated storms, but with less available deep layer moisture, fortunately. Still sufficient moisture and lapse rates to promote isold to sct coverage of shra in the afternoon, while upper trof swinging southeast of Lake Erie may focus generally weak convection in the afternoon to early evening.
Temperatures will stay on the cool side due to the clouds and sfc flow with highs topping out in the lower 80s on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft be in control of our weather conditions on Sunday.
Highs this afternoon will likely reach into the lower 80s for most locations as high pressure off to our northeast continues to usher in cooler air from the east.
Fog is possible in the lower lying areas this morning but with clouds overhead don't expect it to be dense. A weak back door cold front will move down the lake today as high pressure moves across Ontario. High pressure will continue to dominate but weaken as it shifts south across the eastern Great lakes. A weak lake breeze will keep temperatures slightly cooler near the lake.
Models continue to show various timings and strengths of this activity, so confidence level for this event is on the low side.
An upper level ridge was centered over eastern New Mexico with a trough located over the Ohio Valley. low pressure was centered over northwest Oklahoma with a stationary front extending into southeast Texas. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler than normal with highs generally in the low 80s in the west to the mid 80s in the eastern sections. As the high centered over the Great Lakes strengthens on Sunday.
The Natural State wl rmn in between an expansive upper rdg to the W and a elongated upr trof to our E. The aforementioned upper trof to our E, with bring mainly SCTD diurnal convection to locations along and E of the MS River.
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 WV imagery this morning showing a large high pressure dome centered over the TX panhandle pretty much encompassing the majority of the CONUS with ridge axis extending well into central Canada.
As a result, expect lower cigs at these sites affected by any convection, generally in the low VFR to high MVFR range. Expect these trends to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours as upper level impulses ride down the eastern side of the upper ridge to our west.
1035 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure returns with warming temperatures over the weekend.
As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 80s across most locations Short term Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions and the 00Z NAM suggest any lingering showers and thunderstorms should diminish over the next 2-3 hours. As for the rest of the forecast area, expect dry conditions with temperatures dropping to the lower 70s tonight with partly cloudy skies. Northwest flow will remain in place for the next several days, with broad trough to our east being our rainmaker for the weekend.
Thus, kept with the slightly cooler temps in the low 80s across the area. Expect drier conditions to return Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
650 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 [Through 12Z Sunday] A few low clouds around 2500ft are possible this morning but latest trends and brief nature of the lower clouds, have opted with few-sct in the TAFs instead of a ceiling. A weak upper level low will continue to slowly lift northward from the Gulf into the western portion of the CWA today. Expect highs in the low 90s today, except the upper 80s along the coast.
A weak cold front will approach the KABI terminal early this evening, shifting winds to light by mid evening. /issued 442 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level high will be centered over the Four Corners region today. A weak cold front is expected to move into the Big Country late this afternoon and evening, with the front making slow progress south to near or just south of the I-20 corridor overnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, due to some increase in mid and high clouds, with highs 99 to 102 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
Cold core low just off the coast of the FL Panhandle will slowly advance north today and destablize much of the area as cooler air aloft moves over increasing heat at the surface. /GG/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Northerly flow aloft continues to persist over the region as the subtropical ridge sits off to our west. A small, mid-level closed low sits over the northeastern Gulf this morning as conditions are pretty quiet down at the surface. High temps will rise into the low 90s. Upper ridging will take hold over the Intermountain West, while upper troughing will be in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. As the upper ridge slowly migrates east, it will bring lower rain chances to western portions of the forecast area but also bring warmer temperatures to the region.
/10/ Today and tonight: Northerly flow aloft continues to persist over the region as the subtropical ridge sits off to our west. A small, mid-level closed low sits over the northeastern Gulf this morning as conditions are pretty quiet down at the surface. High temps will rise into the low 90s. Upper ridging will take hold over the Intermountain West, while upper troughing will be in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. As the upper ridge slowly migrates east, it will bring lower rain chances to western portions of the forecast area but also bring warmer temperatures to the region.
Mid-upper level ridging will keep the region dry. Models in good agreement (although a bit uncertain on timing) indicating a cold front (extending from a system in Canada) sagging southward through the region. With temperatures near 90F and dewpoints near 70F, moderate instability will set up ahead of the cold front. Ahead of the cold front expect hot and humid conditions with heat index values in the mid-90s.
The best moisture is pooled over the lower deserts west of Tucson with lesser moisture east of Tucson.
Hot temperatures are expected again today, but with cooling aloft with the flattening ridge, the resultant steep lapse rates could transition the showers into strong thunderstorms near the North Dakota border this afternoon. With the flat ridge, Canadian high pressure will slip some cooler air south of the border on Sunday. As the trough moving across Canada digs toward the Great Lakes, the upper ridge shifts slightly westward as it rebounds.
Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than where we have been the past few days and at or slightly above normal for this time of year. This pattern, which features an off shore area of low pressure interacting with the Four Corners monsoon high, will place the Northern Rockies under southwest flow aloft.
With strong moisture transport into the western portion of our CWA, low level convergence, and model soundings continuing to indicate a deep warm cloud layer, any convection that develops will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall through at least mid to late morning, with the greatest threat remaining over the lower James River Valley/central MO River Valley. Presently forecasting high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, though if cloud cover is more persistent than anticipated it will be a little cooler than that. Sunday looks to be a better day as upper level ridging in the western CONUS nudges a bit eastward.
There is still some weak troughing aloft and at the surface. Expect best coverage again will be over the higher elevations due to the orographic lift. Expect locations in the valley will have the lowest chances around 20% or so. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 86 70 / 30 30 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 70 85 68 / 20 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 86 68 / 20 20 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 65 84 65 / 20 20 30 30.
324 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Upper level high will remain over the Central and Southern Rockies today and tonight. Some of the Hi-Res models show isolated storms developing over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Temperatures will be near to a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. The well established upper level ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southwestern U.
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 WV imagery this morning showing a large high pressure dome centered over the TX panhandle pretty much encompassing the majority of the CONUS with ridge axis extending well into central Canada.
On the synoptic scale, big ridges remained over the western Atlantic and back over the southwest states, while a relative trough hung over the Tn Valley. Under the trough with very weak upper level winds, there was an inverted low level trough and axis of moisture across our area. This approaching trough will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity further on Sunday, resulting in 40-70 percent rain chances for the area.
442 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 (Today and Tonight) The upper level high will be centered over the Four Corners region today. A weak cold front is expected to move into the Big Country late this afternoon and evening, with the front making slow progress south to near or just south of the I-20 corridor overnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, due to some increase in mid and high clouds, with highs 99 to 102 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
/issued 311 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019/ Upper level ridging has begun its shift westward with water vapor imagery showing it now centered over northern New Mexico with upper flow over the southern High Plains more northerly in direction. This coupled with a short wave trough moving across Nebraska and Kansas will help a weak cold front move into the forecast area this afternoon and then south of the area later tonight.
848 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Little change in overall weather pattern with upper high anchored over the southwest U. Upper level high will remain over the Central and Southern Rockies today and tonight. Some of the Hi-Res models show isolated storms developing over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Temperatures will be near to a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. The well established upper level ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the southwestern U.
Latest radar trends and some of the higher resolution models suggests the heavier rainfall amounts may be just west of the forecast area.
Watch will be continued with additional forcing possible into the afternoon as s/wv trough progresses south over the region, but any convection will likely be more scattered in nature (thus lower pops).
Consequently high temps today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the upper 90s to low 100s in the Valley, 80s and 90s in the higher terrain, about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. GEFS 500 mbs heights/anomalies show a persistent synoptic pattern during the short term forecast period with a mean upper ridge over the 4-Corners and a broad trof over the Ern Pac. Otherwise, RH progs suggest a little more high cloud cover will pass through Norcal Mon/Tue as the Ern Pac trof deepens.
/Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019/ Current model analysis has an H2 ridge axis running along the Rocky Mountains and high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This ridge will gradually move east bringing the axis over the Great Plains Region by next Saturday. At this time the high will position over eastern New Mexico across the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle into western Oklahoma. However, the topic of interest over the forecast period will be the H5 ridge and high pressure that continues to dominate the Desert Southwest.
Expect this to be the trend again today with water vapor satellite imagery showing enough low and mid level moisture moving around the high into southeast Utah and southwest Colorado up towards the central Colorado divide. Temperatures will be a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday compared to today, due to the increase in clouds and showers.
A NE to SW flow will remain aloft due to an elongated mid-level trough digging through the southern US and western Gulf with a H5 ridge to the west across the Four Corners. Hot and humid conditions will continue, however will maintain the trend of slightly cooler temps across the Victoria Crossroads due to the expected rain and increased cloud coverage.
Meanwhile a 500 mb ridging feature will keep the rain and convective initiation limited to after 21z and constrained initially to over the Laramie Range before moving off into the High Plains. Another warm day across the high plains with higher from the mid 80 to low 90s while the western side of the forecast area will be cooler. Some periods of low RH values in the low to mid teens though winds are expected to remain fairly light keeping conditions above critical levels.
/issued 247 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019/ Water vapor imagery indicates mid/upper level moistures is located within the subtropical ridge which is centered e-se of 4 Corners region. Models suggest there will be a shrtwv trof that tracks swwd Sat night-Sun from SE NM into far W TX which again will keep PoPs mostly confined to SE NM and parts of the Trans Pecos. Temps will be cooler Sun, close to normal most areas. NAM12 has an outlier solution with shrtwv trof remaining across SE NM thru Mon PM and then tracks sewd across PB. The subtropical ridge is determined to put the hurt on SE NM/W TX and will likely build se Wed-Sat.
lcl wind profilers have responded by showing a noteworthy wind shift over the past 8-12hrs as the Atlc ridge axis remains suppressed over the FL Straits. Atlc ridge axis over the FL Straits will combine with a broad low pres trof extending from the Carolinas to the NE GOMex to generate a gentle to moderate SWrly breeze this aftn.
The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across NM, eastern AZ, eastern UT and CO through Tonight. After mostly cloudy skies this morning, skies will become partly cloudy during the afternoon with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s. The upper level ridge across the southwestern US will gradually build east into the southern high Plains.
Meanwhile a 500 mb ridging feature will keep the rain and convective initiation limited to after 21z and constrained initially to over the Laramie Range before moving off into the High Plains. Another warm day across the high plains with higher from the mid 80 to low 90s while the western side of the forecast area will be cooler. Winds will be light and variable overnight and be east to southeast for the High Plains sites and south to west for KLAR/KRWL Saturday afternoon. Some periods of low RH values in the low to mid teens though winds are expected to remain fairly light keeping conditions above critical levels.
558 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 High pressure will dominate the area today and then shift to the east tonight. A weak cold front will move south across the area Sunday.
349 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019 The upper-level ridge is expected to shift a little bit westward today, which will bring the main monsoonal moisture plume to the west as well. Highs this afternoon will be near average, with the plains reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s, and the high valleys topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows will get down to the low to mid 60s across the plains, and upper 40s to mid 50s in the high valleys.
As expected, the highest concentration of rain is west of the I-65 corridor.
Elsewhere, dry conditions and above normal temps are expected today and the Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for portions of the lower elevations across the area.
The pattern looks similar tonight and Sunday with a swath of relatively higher moisture advecting southward while a trough across the Northern Gulf tries to edge westward into the Middle and Upper Texas Coast.
More showers and storms may develop over north central WI as cold front approaches the region late Sunday night.
HREF cloud cover has a pretty good handle on trends, and RAP BUFKIT soundings show low level lapse rates/winds will be conducive to at least some weak mixing this afternoon, or just enough to breakup the low cloud cover anyway.
Overnight tonight, expect mostly clear skies and temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s with light winds. Broad high pressure dominates the region on the surface map this afternoon, albeit weak. Aloft, 500 mb ridging continues to dominate the desert SW, leaving Illinois in the resulting northwesterly flow. The flow aloft weakens on the eastern side of the Mississippi River, dropping into a weak troughing over the eastern half of the country. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees warmer, but precip chances are creeping closer to the N/NE into the afternoon as that weak boundary sags into the region.
118 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with a few isolated showers developing across the higher elevations.
Areas east of the Divide will be in the lower to middle 90s, while portions of the Bighorn Basin and Natrona County rise into the middle to upper 90s.
338 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 A 500mb ridge remains centered over UT, CO, AZ, and NM with weak perturbations in the northwest flow over KS.