Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 352 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough now over the Pacific Northwest will swing southeastward over the Central Rockies through tonight with the nearly zonal flow aloft over the forecast area backing to the southwest. Skies will clear from west to east over the area this morning as the 850mb thermal ridge builds over the area from the southwest. As surface winds veer to the southwest and skies clear, afternoon temperatures will be boosted into the lower 80s, around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. For tonight, morning lows will be in the 50s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal.
328 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
Overnight activity will clear out by Tuesday morning but low clouds look to hang around as warm front works northward Tuesday. Warm front still remains south of the CWA and will gradually push northward with time. /Issued 355 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ Sfc warm front remains well south of the Red River this morning with isolated storms ongoing across SE OK along the elevated frontal zone. Storms originating near this zone will also quickly become severe while the trailing cold front surging southeastward Tues evening will provide an additional focus.
1138 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result. The region is progged to be in the warm sector in SW flow ahead of a trough advancing ewd from the Western CONUS.
351 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 At 3 PM, southerly winds, ahead of a developing low pressure system over northeast Colorado, were found across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. 12z models are in fairly good agreement that both the moisture and warm air advection will increase this evening and overnight ahead of a short wave trough moving out of the Central Plains. However, we will have to watch the dew points closely tonight, because they could result in the rain starting out as freezing rain in areas where the dew points remain below freezing.
148 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017 Moderate to locally heavy rain will continue across extreme southwestern California into the evening as a low pressure trough pulls a deep moist layer inland. Some snow will fall on the higher mountain peaks to the north as well. Strong westerly winds will accompany the rain and snow in the higher mountains. Slightly warmer for Tuesday.
1032 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017 Overnight water vapor loop showed the next Pacific upper trough over the northwest CONUS.
218 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Upper level trough stretches from Idaho into Southern California this afternoon. This trough is expected to swing east overnight tonight and will be emerging onto the high plains by late Tuesday afternoon. This intense low coupled with the strong winds aloft associated with the upper trough should bring strong winds especially to the western and southern Texas Panhandle where a High Wind Watch has been issued. However, winds may stay up in the 20 to 30 mph range behind a cold front that will sweep south behind the upper trough. A few rain showers would not be out of the question, mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle in association with the cold front.
131 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure offshore will result in onshore flow today.
Also near and ahead of a warm front and nearly stationary frontal boundary that extended from South Central Oklahoma through Northeast Texas and North Louisiana, mentioned possibly severe in the wording.
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, an expansive western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the Southeast United States and the Florida peninsula. With our area lying on the southern half of a deep layered western Atlantic ridge, large scale mid and upper level descent will prevail with moisture pretty much confined below 850 mb. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs averaging in the lower to mid 80s and low temperatures generally in the mid 70s.
Surface pressures were falling quickly over central Kansas with warmer air surging north. Deeper moisture with this warmer air keeping skies partly sunny, with enough depth of the moisture for a few showers to form in eastern areas. Cold air advection slowly works in, but should have enough clearing of the low cloud for a warmer day for most locations ahead of a cold front.
240 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 The upper trough that provided light rain earlier today mostly over the southern TN Valley was translating into NC.
There are some issues with the incoming trough. We have been expecting a shallow moisture layer coming into the mountains to deepen today and produce snow that peaks with the trough passage this evening. Spatial cross-sections not as generous in the mountain regarding the moisture but still should see light to moderate snowfall in the high country through Tuesday night.
Elevations above 6000 feet could see 4-7 inches of snow while the lower elevations generally south and east of Kingman could see 1-2 inch rain totals by Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures are likely across much of the southern deserts today. Showers are expected to linger over Mohave County Tuesday morning before the trough axis sweeps eastward in the afternoon.
Next short wave trough and more light snow again this evening in southeast Oregon, and mainly from midnight through Tuesday morning in southwestern Idaho, already in forecasts. Long wave trough over the Pac NW will keep unsettled conditions across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Tuesday.
As a lee low forms across the high plains, winds will shift to south and southeast to the south of a warm front, which will develop along the northern tier of South Dakota today. To our northwest, high pressure will result in dry northerly flow according to NAM BUFKIT soundings, which will limit accumulations there.
Temperatures today will be a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Forecast highs are in the low/mid 60s. Strong poleward moisture advection will continue tonight with dewpoints climbing into the low/mid 60s by midday Tuesday.
1250 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Coastal high pressure will keep temperatures warm to start the new work week.
We will also continue to mention a low chance for convection mainly east of Highway 83 given the warm temperatures and an approaching upper trough axis.
Warm front still remains south of the CWA and will gradually push northward with time. Will carry LLWS at FSM early tomorrow morning, associated with the low level jet. /Issued 355 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ Sfc warm front remains well south of the Red River this morning with isolated storms ongoing across SE OK along the elevated frontal zone. Storms originating near this zone will also quickly become severe while the trailing cold front surging southeastward Tues evening will provide an additional focus.
An upper ridge south of Cuba reached over the Gulf of Mexico with southwest flow containing a weak embedded short wave trough aloft the central Gulf coast. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridged southwest. This will provide a slight increase in moisture which along with lift as the short wave trough track across the east gulf into FL will be enough to support some low odds of showers/storms this afternoon for the nature coast and inland central and southern counties. High pressure ridging across FL into the gulf today will provide southeasterly winds.
Initially this afternoon, the upper level trof is over the Great Basin with a strong southwest flow aloft. Snow showers are increasing over the mountains this afternoon but webcams showing snow mainly over the higher terrain and not much happening on valley floors. Will maintain these areas with the higher chances of snowfall. Gusts of up to 60 mph should occur down the east slopes of the Front Range mountains, foothills and along the Cheyenne Ridge. An additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected over the high mountains.
Weak high pressure tonight will yield fair weather and seasonably mild temperatures tonight.
123 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure offshore will result in onshore flow today.
Southwest upper flow on the leading side of an upper trough centered over the Pacific Northwest will prevail across northeast Montana tonight and Tuesday with scattered light snow showers at times over the area.
Upper level trof over the Great Basin will move into the four corners region. This will allow a relatively weak disturbance to traverse just north of the Altamaha River Basin tonight interacting with a warm front near the Basin. Flat upper ridge will be over FL/se GA Tue Night/Wed morning, supporting dry conditions. heights fall as strong upper trough passes well N of our area. with upper ridge suppressed to Srn FL.
212 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result.
209 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 A slight chance for -sn remains in the forecast this evening for Sheridan county ahead of an upper trough moving across Wyoming. A cold front will also move into northwest Nebraska this evening, and push through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. The advancement of the cold front from the west will end the fog from west to east overnight, with no fog expected after 12z Tuesday. Cooler H85 temperatures behind the front from 0C to -5C will reduce highs Tuesday to the lower to mid 30s northwest, to near 40 across the southeast.
Mid level clouds will be on the increase today into the early evening as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Southeast winds may reach small craft advisory levels very late tonight into early Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches from the west.
With the wave focused to the north, have some low chance pops along the highway 14 corridor, but models are only hinting at the potential for saturation in the dendritic layer. Biggest concern is along the highway 14 corridor, where temperatures are expected to fall below freezing. At this time based upon on bufkit soundings & model temp profiles, I will play the odd of the atmosphere not becoming saturated and freezing drizzle becomes a possibility into the late morning hours until surface temps warm above freezing.
A west southwest flow aloft and a 500 mb subtropical ridge over the southern Gulf will continue to support a warm southerly flow across region. Weak low pressure near the Sierra Madre this afternoon will keep winds fairly light across the west with gusty winds near the coast today. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. The low level jet strengthens tonight which will keep wind speeds up to preclude fog and also hold low temperatures tonight in the low 70s.
Updated this morning's low temperatures as increasing cloud cover and a bit of wind kept temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer than expected. The next storm system appears to be strengthening over the Pacific NW with its cold front sweeping across northern NV and into NW UT. A strong polar jet rounds the bottom of the trough and curves toward the north over WY and the high plains, while to subtropical jet is arcing north over southern CA. The surface cold front should push through NE UT into extreme NW CO late this afternoon and early evening then progress through most of the forecast area overnight and hanging up over SW CO Tuesday morning.
1226 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Chilly temperatures this morning will quickly rebound this week as a warm front lifts north, leading to near record high temperatures by mid-week.
This activity has push a nice cool sfc boundary through much of the area and is just about to be south of the highway 84 corridor. Temps are cooler this morning but will see a rise similar to prev forecast values later in the afternoon.
Precip will be more scattered in nature and the low level wind response will be weak initially. This activity has push a nice cool sfc boundary through much of the area and is just about to be south of the highway 84 corridor. Temps are cooler this morning but will see a rise similar to prev forecast values later in the afternoon.
212 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A cold front will move east of the state tonight. Weak high pressure builds over the region through Tuesday.
Expect the trough to remain in place however, keeping in colder temperatures across the area.
An area of low pressure is located across southeast WY. Upper level trough is moving into the Northern Rockies.
The upper trough that provided light rain earlier today mostly over the southern TN Valley was translating into NC.
No major highlights through the short-term as well-above normal temperatures are ongoing this afternoon and even warmer temperatures expected tomorrow after early morning clouds and areas of fog. Surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s west to mid 60s east and this low-level moisture along with cooling this evening will aid in abundant low clouds and patchy fog once again. After diurnal mixing occurs and clouds break apart, H925 temps are expected to be slightly warmer Tuesday then today per BUFR soundings and thus higher surface temperatures are anticipated.
An area of low pressure is located across southern WY. Upper level trough is moving into the Northern Rockies. Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the CONUS with upper trof moving into the Northern Rockies. Upper level trof will slide across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies expected. High temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 A warm front will lift NE into the area overnight with a mid level impulse moving across the region. The warm front will race NE Tuesday with mid trop NVA developing across the area Tuesday morning, early afternoon. Timing best chances will be very difficult that far out and ahead of a cold front to our west.
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Widespread freezing fog is being reported from Kirksville through St. This is all in thanks to a ridge axis directly overhead, allowing for light to calm winds, clear skies, and just about no dewpoint depression. A warm front lifting north across the area later today into tonight will bring the chance for rain. Cold front pushing its way through the region on Tuesday, coupled with 60+ kts.
421 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result.
High High pressure will build in from the north today and tonight, bringing decreasing clouds from north to south. It will be cooler near Lake Michigan though due to onshore winds. High clouds will likely increase late tonight in at least the west ahead of an approaching trough. high Upper level ridging builds into the region ahead of a deep cutoff low over the southern plains. We will sit in a generally diffluent region ahead of the low, so good jet level divergance will be realized throughout the day. With high RH, strong WAA, and considerable fgen showing up at 700mb in all models, it looks like the mid level portion of the warm front extending from the low will push into southern Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon.
410 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 07z sfc analysis shows a low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. Now the bulk of these initial showers and storms have moved off to the east while a few lighter ones trail back toward the system's cold front now pressing through western Kentucky. They all depict a trough passing through Kentucky this morning as it moves off to the East Coast by evening. This will be followed by rising heights and broad ridging through the mid part of the country tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next in a series of deep troughs will be moving through the Four Corners region.
Quiet forecast through the midweek period as high pressure aloft and at the surface build into the region.
As the low continues away from the area, this should occur with some veering to the NE. More likely to trend cooler up toward I-64 southern IL, southwest IN, but stay closer to guidance farther south, should we see more breaks than currently forecast. Upper low seen over northern AR early this morning is forecast to track across the southern Rockies and end up over the central Plains over the next 60 hours, strengthening with time.
155 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure moves away today, with lingering NW flow showers.
312 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weak low pressure will approach the region from the west today and will cross the area this evening.
339 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will offering a continued chance of showers. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week, providing dry weather.
Mid-level trough over the High Plains will move east this morning, to be replaced by gradually increasing westerly flow through Wednesday as weak upper ridging slides by to the south. At the surface, broad lee-side troughing will persist over the High Plains into Wednesday night. Wednesday will see a bit stronger breezes out of the southwest and continued mid- to high-level cloudiness, but temperatures will also be a bit warmer, resulting in what is likely to be the warmest day of the workweek for most parts of north-central and southwest Montana. Thickening clouds will likely result in warmer low temperatures for most areas Wednesday night.
Elsewhere, under mostly clear skies, temperatures are in the lower 70s with winds gentle to moderate from northeast to southeast. Mid to upper level ridging will slide eastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and Wednesday. By late in the week, a weakening trough swings through the central Gulf of Mexico.
232 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line late tonight and Tuesday.
An active forecast period is expected for Central Indiana as several troughs and ridges rotate through the area. After that, weak ridging will result in dry conditions for mid- week, but another system will approach from the southwest on Wednesday night. Cloudy skies will be the rule with low center moving through the area and being in the wake of the low after it moves east. Could see a decent gradient in low temperatures as the northwest could drop into the mid 40s before daybreak as the low moves east (currently a couple obs of mid 40s in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana), but most of the area should stay in the low to mid 50s. Rain showers will end from west to east very early tomorrow morning, and then dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening as ridging strengthens aloft.
Upper trough is moving across the lower Ohio Valley with the best forcing moving east of the area.
404 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A brief return of mid-level ridging over the Central Plains will maintain dry conditions despite persistent low level moisture beneath 850 hPa. Values will range from the mid 50s north of the I-70 corridor to the lower 60s for points south, where weak WAA will persist.
Moving on, upper ridging to build in tonight and Wednesday.
A low pressure system will bring a chance of showers mainly east of Tucson through Tuesday night. Expect strong gusty winds Tuesday and cooler temperatures.
330 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The upper level low/cold pool aloft is centered over the Ohio Valley early this morning, and WV imagery shows the wave spinning east along the Ohio River. Low pressure will scoot off to the east this morning, and the Bluegrass region may see some isolated light showers. Otherwise, the bulk of the day will be dry, mostly cloudy, and cooler. Upper level heights slowly rise through the day as ridging returns, but clouds and northwest winds will keep highs in the mid 60s. Surface winds will turn northeasterly as low pressure moves into the southern Plains.
358 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A low pressure system moving eastward from Arizona will bring strong gusty north winds today.
75 inches which is above 200 percent of normal and a very modest 30kt low level jet develops tonight aiming the moisture up the high plains.
Late tonight there will be an upper level wave that approaches from an upper low on the high plains. On Tuesday, the upper low continues to move slowly into the central and southern plains.
Will include low level wind shear at KMAF from 28/09Z to 28/14Z when the low level jet will shift off to the northeast.
Elevated warm-air advection in advance of the trough will likely set off a few showers and thunderstorms this morning over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.
The highest likelihood would be across the south (AZO to JXN) where ground moisture is high, as well as the far north within cooler valleys. There is remarkably good agreement among the mid range models with respect to a slow moving southern stream upper trough that is expected to bring the next chance of precipitation to the area beginning late Wednesday night as it lifts northeast.
Patchy fog remains possible outside of the low cloud shield with improvement after sunrise in both fog and low cloud coverage. Additional cloud cover looks to develop out west and begin to spread into the region ahead of the next approaching upper level low. Slightly lower dewpoints within the weak north to easterly low level flow should allow for cooler low temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s from north to south tonight. These temperatures combined with calm/light winds and relative humidity values near 100 percent underneath high pressure could create areas of patchy fog to develop over parts of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late tonight into Tuesday morning.
As upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley this morning, enough instability remains to produce scattered showers, mainly acros TRI/TYS.
645 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A series of troughs moving through the area today will trigger some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the area tonight.
The upper low which will bring this moisture is moving across western New Mexico this morning. This low will help to spark showers across the western portions of the Panhandles as early as 6 AM. These storms are anticipated to move northeastward across the Panhandles as the upper low moves closer to the Panhandles over the course of the day. recent model runs have shown the track of the upper low to be slightly further south than previously indicated. This, as well as morning convection, will help to keep the warm front further south that previous thought.
633 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight.
The models were in good agreement with the track of the large upper level low pressure system moving out of the southwest U.
503 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line late tonight and Tuesday.