Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A nearly cloudless sky will continue be the rule through the day with high pressure in control. /Issued 728 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016/ Clear skies prevailed over the forecast area this morning as a dry cold front continued to move southeast through GA. A northwest flow aloft will continue today as an upper level high pressure ridge sets up over the central U. dry high pressure dominating across the deep south through at least the weekend and possibly beyond.
1133 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 Cool high pressure builds in today.
Observations showing temperatures in the upper 60 north, the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor and upper 70s at the coast.
High pressure aloft will strengthen across the Great Basin today, then shift east as a storm system enters the Pacific Northwest late in the week.
951 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 An upper level low will move overhead on today and allow for another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This morning the pattern featured an upper-level troughs of low pressure over the Northeast U. In between, a broad ridge of high pressure anchored off of Baja California extends northward into the Rockies and High Plains.
The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday, showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably warmer than most other available guidance. High pressure will continue over the area. Today Through Thursday Night A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the country by Thursday night. With high pressure in control. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
Upper ridging continues to dominate the wrn CONUS. Upper ridge axis and thermal ridge will move across the nrn plains Thursday. This will bring warmer temps reaching the upper 80s to upper 90s. Models are now showing a weak cold front pushing into the area late Thur afternoon/evening which could produce some storms mainly during the evening.
There will be very little change in the upper patter through Tue, with an elongated upper high extending from the Four Corners region into the forecast area. This high will actually strengthen a bit causing heights to edge upward across the area Monday, with little change on Tue. There will likely be some gusty southwest to west winds through the Highway 14 corridor and into the Antelope Valley each afternoon and evening through Tue. EC/GFS in good generally agreement showing the elongated upper high lingering through Wed, with little change in the weather across the forecast area. It will then be forced southward and eastward as a trough moves into the Eastern Pacific on Thu. Once this trough moves into the West Coast Thu night, another trough will dig down the West Coast, then linger into Sat.
Precipitation should be a little more spotty farther south/west as a ridge of high pressure stengthens from the Plains. The ridge will become more dominant tonight/Monday. As the ridge takes over, there will be a warming trend.
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 12Z MFL sounding shows PWATS increasing to around 2 inches, cooler 500 mb temp of -7. Still it remains to be seen if the lower levels do become unstable enough to support strong/tall cells across the area this afternoon. A surface Bermuda high sustains the east to southeasterly flow in the low low levels, while a 500mb ridge continues to sit to the northwest. This, coupled with an upper level low, which may also works its way over the area, will help to allow any convection to be somewhat stronger than it has been over the last several days.
A surface Bermuda high sustains the east to southeasterly flow in the low low levels, while a 500mb ridge continues to sit to the northwest. This, coupled with an upper level low, which may also works its way over the area, will help to allow any convection to be somewhat stronger than it has been over the last several days.
As in previous discussion, weak cold front last night will bring 6-8 degs cooling today.
Exception may be far north where some slightly cooler mid level air moves in this afternoon. Weak upper troughing remains in place through Monday.
The convection to our west is associated with a short wave trough that will progress eastward today.
An increase in clouds this morning will result in slightly cooler temperatures today.
/issued 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A bimodal upper ridge will stretch across the southern CONUS through tonight with the eastern maxima, now located over coastal Mississippi, building westward toward Texas. Afternoon temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs near 100 degrees. Morning lows should be a degree or two cooler with lows mostly in the lower 70s. (Monday through Sunday) Hot and dry conditions should prevail, as the upper level ridge remains in place.
the ongoing convection is expected to dissipate with the loss of the low level jet by 15z this morning. The NAM suggested storm development off the Laramie range and perhaps the Cheyenne divide and Pine Ridge also.
Have increased the clouds and pops over these areas Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US through the week.
A dry cold front developing over the region today will cause dry and gusty afternoon winds today.
the upper ridge will build northward resulting in much warmer temperatures. Due to the strength and location of the ridge. Upper ridging will continue to be the main feature on Monday with temperatures once again above normal.
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A strong low level jet of 35-40kts has intensified a warm frontal boundary over central Kansas leading to the formation of an MCS. High resolution models such as HRRR and RAP indicate these storms will start to dissipate as the low level jet weakens late in the morning with surface heating. This low increases the pressure gradient over the Great Plains and intensifies convergence along the boundary over NE Missouri as it interacts with the high pressure over the Great Lakes. Once the low level jet intensifies Sunday night another potential MCS is expected to form over NE Missouri and Iowa. The low level jet that forms over KS and MO Sunday night will also bring strong warm air advection over the region with an increase of 6C at 850hPa by 12z Monday morning.
Near normal maximum temperatures are expected with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Upper air analysis from 00Z soundings show upper ridge slightly weaker over the Desert SW and a slightly stronger ridge over N Florida. Heights at 500mb have risen a bit along the N Gulf coast in response to the ridging expanding over the area and troughing lifting off to the NE.
High pressure building overhead will keep remainder of short term period hot and dry. Expect temperatures today a couple degrees warmer in the west, and similar to yesterday east.
Moderate onshore flow will prevail today with flat upper level high pressure ridging building into the Pacific Northwest through tonight.
721 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 Low pressure was over Ohio along a stationary front from Delaware to Missouri. This low will move east today and Monday and push a weak cold front into Kentucky and Virginia.
with a trough axis of low pressure and associated convection extending NNE. This trough was retrograding westward. Precip will be greatest in coverage inland late this afternoon generally along and west of the Highway 301 corridor. Above normal temperatures with highs in the low/mid 90s across NE Fl are expected with mid/upper 90s across SE Ga. Prevailing VFR conditions with restrictions likely in afternoon and evening showers/tstorms mainly inland along and west of the Highway 301 corridor.
646 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Convection has blossomed within the last several hours across north central KS to the north of the retreating warm front within a region of good WAA/MCON associated with a southwesterly LLJ, and in advance of a weak disturbance aloft. Glass It still appears that the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will occur later tonight into Monday attendant with the slow east/northeast lifting warm front, a broad region of WAA/MCON associated with west-southwesterly low-level flow, and a weak disturbance aloft. This broad zone favoring showers and thunderstorms will then continue to shift across eastern MO and into western IL on Monday in response to the building ridge aloft, northwesterly steering flow, and a west-southwest LLJ.
1011 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A broad area of low pressure in place across northern Ohio will slowly shift east into Pennsylvania tonight.
Should see a few degrees of cooling today compared to yesterday as result of the more established marine layer and slight weakening of the ridge aloft.
751 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Aviation One more day of considerable cloudiness and scattered showers can be expected due to a very slow moving area of low pressure.
High pressure continues to ridge just north of Tampa Bay which will produce southeast through south winds 10 knots or less today.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Weak troughing aloft will be conducive to a few showers and thunderstorms over the area today.
/issued 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ A look at the early morning water vapor imagery shows plenty of mid- upper level moisture trapped across the Desert Southwest within a relatively flat west-east oriented ridge that spans much of the southern CONUS.
The short wave trough sweeps eastward tonight and everything above the boundary layer looks set to dry out. Fries Much drier air will be in place by Monday and persist through the end of the period with the longwave trough axis east of the forecast area. There is an outside chance of a stray afternoon shower over the ridges Monday afternoon with lingering moisture but elsewhere will be dry. A warming trend in temperatures can be expected through the first half of the week as ridging builds in from the west.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over the BC/ALTA border with an upper jet on the southern periphery. An upper level short wavelength ridge precedes the trough over eastern MT. Warm advection precip was occurring on east side of ridge. Upper level trough will move into central SASK by Mon amd will send a cold front into the Red River Valley Mon afternoon/Mon night. Westerly flow aloft will be over the area and a low amplitude upper ridge axis will be over the area at 84 hours.
This convection should continue to develop and spread in a northwest to southeast fashion across the forecast area as the low level jet veers. The upper level ridge begins to build in earnest today.
Slightly lower inland temperatures are expected through early in the coming week as an upper trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Inland temperatures will drop another few degrees today in response to a weak upper trough over the Pacific NW.
This trend may continue across portions of western and northwestern OK through the week on the northwestern periphery of the ridge axis. Temperatures will continue to increase this week under the ridge and come close to reaching heat advisory criteria each day, especially late this week along and east of I35 where dewpoints may remain in the mid to upper 60s if not higher.
1244 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A broad area of low pressure in place across northern Ohio will slowly shift east into Pennsylvania tonight.
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain just north of the area today and tonight.
We have transitioned to a period of warmer conditions and the potential for not only showers and thunderstorms, but a few stronger storms.
Early this morning a warm front stretched across far southern Kansas, and models show this front lifting northward across the area late this afternoon through this evening as a mid-level ridge begins to build northward across the central U. With southerly winds in place by tonight, expect warmer overnight temperatures with lows only dropping into the low/mid 70s.
Very little change in the overall pattern across the Gulf coast today as a weakness in the upper ridge remains across the southeast states. Highs will generally be in the low 90s inland to upper 80s near the coast.
a 500 mb ridge axis is expected to build steadily westward later today and tonight which will likely result in a more stable and drier airmass in place over the RGV. /issued 428 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500 mb ridging will continue to build over the RGV from the Gulf of Mexico throughout today and Monday. For temps will go close to persistence on through today and Monday as the 500 mb ridging strengthens over the area.
Overall, we expect an active day for showers and thunderstorms across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures peaking in the 101-106 range again.
Daily storm chances continue unabated, as troffy nwlys aloft continue through the course of the short term forecast, with evolution of synoptic flow pattern transition between falling heights east and rising heights west and PAH FA sandwiched between. Apparent temps will be on the rise during the work week, as ridging heights start to win out and surface temps/dew points climb a few degrees. As we have seen through the summer, the main synoptic feature will be the persistent 500 mb subtropical ridge that has oscillated eastward from the Plains and then back westward at times. The ridge will expand eastward during this coming week, and it will be centered almost directly over the Lower Ohio Valley late in the workweek.
Weakness in upper ridging remains over the area. Temperatures adjacent to large bodies of water were in the lower 80s at 2 am, with readings elsewhere in the middle and upper 70s. 32 A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the end of the week.
Broad upper level troughing will again be in place today. We do see a change to a more northerly upper level flow by Sunday night as upper ridging builds over TX. However, cape values are on the low side despite neutral to slightly favorable omega values at 00z. Over the ext period, upper ridging over TX will strengthen and shift east.
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain after 18Z Sunday.
1013 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 Low pressure was over Ohio along a stationary front from Delaware to Missouri. This low will move east today and Monday and push a weak cold front into Kentucky and Virginia.
512 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Current surface map shows weak low across Montana, with trof extending into Wyoming. Surface trof moves into western Dakotas this afternoon. Moisture pooling east of the trof will result in MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/KG. Surface trof/cold front slides through western South Dakota Monday morning and is located over south central South Dakota Monday afternoon.
This convection should continue to develop and spread in a northwest to southeast fashion across the forecast area as the low level jet veers. The upper level ridge begins to build in earnest today. The upper level ridge builds into the region.
Weak upper troughing remains in place through Monday.
Temperatures will run a few degrees above yesterday's highs with most locations warming into the low 80s. A mid level trough associated with a Canadian cut off low will push into the Dakotas overnight. A surface reflection low in SD, with inverted trough extending into canada, becomes focus for thunderstorms Monday.
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Visible satellite photographs skies are mostly sunny in the Lower Keys to partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere. Surface wise, a minor trough is draped from the extreme Southeast Gulf of mexico southward to the western portion of the archipelago of Cuba. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds with the highest on Hawk Channel and Florida Straits can be expected for the balance of today, however, an exercise caution headline will likely be required for the coastal waters beginning tonight.
Fries Much drier air will be in place by Monday and persist through the end of the period with the longwave trough axis east of the forecast area. There is an outside chance of a stray afternoon shower over the ridges Monday afternoon with lingering moisture but elsewhere will be dry. A warming trend in temperatures can be expected through the first half of the week as ridging builds in from the west.
At the upper levels, a weak inverted trough will move over the peninsula today and then gradually merge with a long wave trough moving into the eastern US. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s most locations this afternoon, and be a degree or two warmer for Monday afternoon. Tonight temperatures will fall to the lower 70s inland, and in the mid 70s to near 80 along the coast. Rather weak and broad upper ridging will remain centered generally west of us for most of the upcoming week. The surface Atlantic ridge axis will remain across the central peninsula.
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 31/00z upper-air analysis indicate a trough over western Canada, downstream ridging over the northern High Plains and a broad, low-amplitude trough over the Great Lakes into mid Mississippi Valley.
A trough of low pressure will be found across eastern Colorado leading to southerly winds felt across western Kansas. Highs today look to reach into the upper 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s or around 70 degrees. A trough of low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado Monday with continued dry conditions. A cold front is then progged to drop south towards northern Kansas Monday night as an upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains.
/issued 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ Broad upper ridge across the southern half of the country will remain over the region through the coming week and beyond. Summer time pattern will continue with little day to day change in the weather with near to above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorms over the higher elevations.
Subsequent isolated storms with the cold front later in the day will be high based and produce mainly gusty winds through the evening hours. but prog trends suggest the highest potential for a severe threat is east of the stateline in the Dakotas. Cold front is progged to move through Billings around 900 pm, and the remainder of the region overnight shifting winds from westerly to northerly for several hours. Weak return flow on Monday will mean cooler temps and less instability with a better capped environment.
Temperatures are forecast to warm into the lower 90s across most of the Mid-South this afternoon.
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain just north of the area today and tonight.
with a trough axis of low pressure and associated convection extending NNE of Cape Canaveral. This trough axis was retrograding westward. Precip will be greatest in coverage inland late this afternoon generally along and west of the Highway 301 corridor. Above normal temperatures with highs in the low/mid 90s across NE Fl are expected with mid/upper 90s across SE Ga. Prevailing VFR conditions with restrictions likely in afternoon and evening showers/tstorms mainly inland along and west of the Highway 301 corridor.
Isolated to widely scattered shower/storm development will be briefly held back early this afternoon until a weak mid-level ridge finally is east of the forecast area. However, slight chance pops were left in over the ridges earlier in the day as the area will be under the right-rear jet quadrant. Much drier air will be in place by Monday and persist through the end of the period with the longwave trough axis east of the forecast area. There is an outside chance of a stray afternoon shower over the ridges Monday afternoon with lingering moisture but elsewhere will be dry. A warming trend in temperatures can be expected through the first half of the week as ridging builds in from the west.
1058 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure over Quebec will gradually build east through today as a weak area of low pressure moves into southern New England.
Upper trough will swing across the Divide today. Templer Previous Discussion: Upper low over western Canada is expected to spin east into central Canada by late Monday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 92 72 / 30 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 70 / 40 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 91 69 / 40 20 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 88 66 / 40 30 30 20.
the weak surface frontal boundary is expected to lift northeast as a warm front and exit the CWA this afternoon. Ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the Southern Plains through the work week with temperatures back in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees possible. an isolated diurnal pulse type thunderstorm may be possible within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
H8 to H6 thermal layer is a degree or two warmer than 24 hours ago.
254 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will crest over the region this morning before sliding offshore. A warm front will lift into the region from the southwest tonight and be quickly followed by a cold front on Wednesday. The cold front will then stall over southern New England Wednesday night.
220 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of the weather today. Surface winds will increase and become gusty out of the south to southwest as low pressure slowly moves east across southern Kansas. It looks like record high temperatures are in serious jeopardy today as progged 850 mb temperatures support high temperatures in the lower 80s.
The highest temperature as of 3 am was at Saxon Harbor with 58 degrees. A secondary cold front was dropping across northern Minnesota early this morning. There are some differences in the way the models are handling the low level moisture today, which can be fairly typical of November. Will take a mixed approach in bringing a bit more sunshine from the Brainerd Lakes into Duluth, and favoring more clouds along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. We should see a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday as another cold front drops across the Lake Superior region. Temps in the mid 50s would be some 10 degrees warmer than normal.
The dominant feature will be a developing full-latitude ridge from the southern Plains to the Canadian prairie provinces. The forecast area is expected to remain near/within large scale ridging, and with gulf moisture likely to remain south of the area, precipitation chances will be very limited. Although a cold front will cross the area this morning, the warm start to the day and decreasing clouds should allow daytime temperatures to warm to 12-18F degrees above normal.
1158 PM MDT Mon Oct 31 2016 The cold front which has produced gusty winds at many areas throughout the day will continue to dissolve over western Colorado. A second trough reaches eastern Utah on Tuesday and keeps a cooler airmass overhead the region. This trough will bring a few isolated showers to the higher terrain on Tuesday, but will not produce any major impacts to the region. This trough will split into a northern half and southern half over the next few days with its axis sitting over the UT/CO border.
High pressure will build to the North this period, with an increasingly moist onshore flow.
High pressure aloft has shifted further southeast as a large trough was being carved out over the western United States.
A weak cold front currently over southern CO/KS will sag south and pass thru KGUY at 01/09Z, KDHT 01/10Z, and KAMA at 01/15Z. This should be the last warm day before a cold front drops across the area Wednesday to bring us back closer to seasonal averages. Medium range models have come into slightly better agreement with the 12Z runs showing the potential for isolated showers developing along the cold front as it moves through the central portions of the Panhandles.
432 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Ridging aloft will continue through the short term.