Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weak wave moving across Wyoming will be racing east tonight, with the H5 ridge centered on the Four Corners expanding northward. RH values are expected to bottom out in the low teens to possible single digits Sunday afternoon.
218 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A beautiful start to the holiday weekend today as high pressure continues to dominate and we remain in a relatively dry airmass. Expect mostly clear skies and high temps reaching the lower 90s in most locations across the Valley. Expect this to result in a bit more in the way of diurnal cloud cover on Sunday, with highs remaining in the lower 90s. A very weak wave of energy aloft will approach the TN Valley region late Sunday as high pressure further amplifies over the southwest CONUS and slides further east, shifting the upper trough more toward the Atlantic coast.
For Sun, high pressure aloft ovr the SW states wl begin to expand sloly EWD into the Mid-South.
The severe threat should be about over though as it has been cooler out there all day. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin to amplify.
High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today continuing through Sunday. 500mb heights will be higher than the past couple of days resulting in a warmer day today with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, with cooler temperatures along the Dakota borders. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail Sunday with readings warming into the lower 90s for most areas. Fire concerns will be a bit elevated as afternoon humidities will drop into the lower 20s.
353 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Even though the cold front has dropped south of Central Illinois, some morning showers southeast of a line roughly from Taylorville to Rantoul, will keep a muggy feel to the morning hours. Well behind the cold front to the south, this will result in some higher RH levels in the boundary layer in the east and southeast. The southwestern 500 mb ridge builds for the rest of the weekend, modulating the upper pattern to more of a northwesterly look into the mid Mississippi River Valley.
A weak mid level trough is moving through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning bringing some clouds into mainly NE AR, the MO Bootheel and NW TN. Temps range from the lower 60s over West TN and NE MS to around 70 in the Delta. Some morning clouds from the passing trough will give way to increasing sunshine by the afternoon. Expect highs around 90 with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s creating comfortable humidity levels.
1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The mid tropospheric pattern in the short term has a prevailing ridge of high pressure over the southwest U. /Rockies/parts of the Plains with a trough in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast.
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (NHC's most recent Tropical Weather Outlook has low tropical formation chances on this system over the next five days) will be moving generally westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Deepest moisture levels and best lift from this system are expected to remain mainly to our south (near/off the coast) as mid/upper level ridging and associated subsidence gradually builds into our area from the northwest. This ridge will help to bring warming temperatures to the area for much of the upcoming week with highs in the lower 90s at the coast to the upper 90s/around 100 well inland. This easterly wave will travel across the Gulf as either an open wave or a very large, broad closed off area of low pressure.
As the high begins to build back in over the four corners today, convection will be kept to a minimum.
-BL A more unsettled period is forecast for this weekend for the coastal waters in response to low pressure moving westward though the gulf.
648 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through today under light northeasterly winds as high pressure drifts through the central Great Lakes. This high pressure will bring dry and stable conditions with predominately clear skies in the lowest 10k ft. Closer home, a large high pressure system continues to shift east across the region. This high will maintain a rather dry low level profile across the region into the first half of the weekend.
521 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Rather tranquil northwest flow resides with mean upper ridge across Pacific northwest and mean trough over northeastern states.
550 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east across upstate New York today.
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 With upper level ridging and light winds still in place, expect today to be similar to yesterday.
352 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners.
257 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Temperatures will trend upward through Labor Day as high pressure continues to dominate the region along with dry conditions.
There is some uncertainty as to how long the cloudiness will linger and this could result in a cooler day than is currently forecast. Given that we don't have a frontal boundary and significantly cooler airmass moving into the area, think that the cloudiness should gradually lift and scatter out by this afternoon with highs back into the 80s in most areas. For tonight, kept a slight chance for thunderstorms going as the models show the low level jet increasing once again. By Sunday, the upper level disturbance moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region gradually builds east toward the central Plains.
946 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 E/NE flow in place across the area today, with a little drier air in place today as the weak trough that moved over the area yesterday continues to shift west away from the area. Adjusted temperatures up a degree or two with the stronger easterly flow in place, but temperatures mainly remain in the lower 90s for highs.
326 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary still west of the forecast area, with high pressure centered over the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southwest US, with a ridge building northward over the Great Basin region. A warming trend will take place over the holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
Mid level steering flow is from the southeast, so expect differential heating on the higher terrain to initiate storm development after 17Z then a combination of weak surface convergence and cold pools to have storms develop on the windward side of the mountains through 1Z. Tweaked pops up for the northern West Virginia counties to reflect latest trends from the high res models.
535 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected today under building high pressure. Rain chances return Sunday with a trough of low pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today for most of the area under building high pressure. The exception is the WV and MD ridges, where enough instability is expected to result in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms as convective thresholds are met.
527 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary still west of the forecast area, with high pressure centered over the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southwest US, with a ridge building northward over the Great Basin region. A warming trend will take place over the holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
/issued 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge will be centered over the Four Corners region today, with weak northerly flow aloft continuing across our area through tonight. Low level flow will have more of an easterly component today and this should result in slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
High pressure aloft will bring warm and dry conditions to the region on Saturday.
/issued 532 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/ Latest water vapor satellite imagery/UA analysis revealed an upper ridge centered over the Desert SW, with a trof/shear axis on its eastern flank stretching across the NW Gulf coast. At the SFC, powerful Dorian continues to churn TWD the WNW over the WRN Atlantic, while a broad and weak low pressure area was near the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, amid a mix of clouds and sun, another warm afternoon is on tap with highs in the lower/mid 90s. This will be offset to some degree by the EWD moving and expanding upper ridge, which by SUN will be centered over the Four Corners. Ridge will continue to dominate the area WED into THU, with small rain chances returning FRi as a weak SFC front sags into the area.
532 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Latest water vapor satellite imagery/UA analysis revealed an upper ridge centered over the Desert SW, with a trof/shear axis on its eastern flank stretching across the NW Gulf coast. At the SFC, powerful Dorian continues to churn TWD the WNW over the WRN Atlantic, while a broad and weak low pressure area was near the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, amid a mix of clouds and sun, another warm afternoon is on tap with highs in the lower/mid 90s. This will be offset to some degree by the EWD moving and expanding upper ridge, which by SUN will be centered over the Four Corners. Ridge will continue to dominate the area WED into THU, with small rain chances returning FRi as a weak SFC front sags into the area.
616 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Scattered showers and storms possible along a slow moving cold front through Labor Day with temperatures slightly above normal. A cold front with a mid level disturbance will slowly move through the area today and this evening.
As a result, drier air is situated in northeast KS with slightly higher dew points in the low 60s toward central KS where showers have been trying to develop. From there, a broad ridge over the southwestern US will amplify and allow skies to clear with temperatures warming back to the low/mid 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s to near 70.
659 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east across upstate New York today.
The lower temps in the E looked good based on the stratus slowing the warmup. High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today continuing through Sunday. 500mb heights will be higher than the past couple of days resulting in a warmer day today with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, with cooler temperatures along the Dakota borders. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail Sunday with readings warming into the lower 90s for most areas. Fire concerns will be a bit elevated as afternoon humidities will drop into the lower 20s.
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge will be centered over the Four Corners region today, with weak northerly flow aloft continuing across our area through tonight. Low level flow will have more of an easterly component today and this should result in slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
606 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through today under light northeasterly winds as high pressure drifts through the central Great Lakes. This high pressure will bring dry and stable conditions with predominately clear skies in the lowest 10k ft. Closer home, a large high pressure system continues to shift east across the region. This high will maintain a rather dry low level profile across the region into the first half of the weekend.
Highs will range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.
Ample sunshine and a steadily warming atmosphere will lead to another warmer than normal late August afternoon. The tail end of a Canadian cold front will brush across NW Montana Sunday afternoon and should prove sufficient to initiate some convective showers. Cooler temperatures are also expected in these areas due to clouds and possible precipitation. Elsewhere, above normal temperatures are once again expected as high pressure aloft remains fixed in place.
Relative to the same time yesterday, most locations are reporting slightly warmer readings per surface observations and RTMA data. ridge, warm/dry conditions will prevail throughout the Labor Day holiday weekend.
A downslope easterly flow through the low levels will provide a stable and dry environment across the TN Valley.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and upper Midwest with a cold front in the Ohio Valley.
/Issued 414 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/ With upper level ridging and light winds still in place, expect today to be similar to yesterday.
314 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure aloft will bring warm and dry conditions to the region on Saturday.
Sunday will be dry and warmer with a few afternoon clouds once again.
208 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure aloft will keep warm to hot late Summer weather over SoCal through the Holiday weekend.
Winds are east in the Lower Keys and southeast in the Upper Keys.
757 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure aloft will bring warm and dry conditions to the region on Saturday.
High pressure will build over the area through Sunday, resulting in dry and warm conditions.
92 precipitable water value) and high pressure will continue to preclude any deep convective development. While this is happening, a broad area of low pressure will begin moving west from the Straits of Florida into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Highs this afternoon will remain toasty as they climb into the lower and middle 90s, while under mostly sunny skies.
92 precipitable water value) and high pressure will continue to preclude any deep convective developmen. While this is happening, a broad area of low pressure will begin moving west from the Straits of Florida into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Highs this afternoon will remain toasty as they climb into the lower and middle 90s, while under mostly sunny skies.
expect another quiet TAF period with high pressure continuing to control area weather.
613 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Even though the cold front has dropped south of Central Illinois, some morning showers southeast of a line roughly from Taylorville to Rantoul, will keep a muggy feel to the morning hours. Well behind the cold front to the south, this will result in some higher RH levels in the boundary layer in the east and southeast. The southwestern 500 mb ridge builds for the rest of the weekend, modulating the upper pattern to more of a northwesterly look into the mid Mississippi River Valley.
The low clouds are expected to slowly dissipate through the day from west to east. Low temperatures in the low to upper 60s.
A beautiful start to the holiday weekend today as high pressure continues to dominate and we remain in a relatively dry airmass. Expect mostly clear skies and high temps reaching the lower 90s in most locations across the Valley. Expect this to result in a bit more in the way of diurnal cloud cover on Sunday, with highs remaining in the lower 90s. A very weak wave of energy aloft will approach the TN Valley region late Sunday as high pressure further amplifies over the southwest CONUS and slides further east, shifting the upper trough more toward the Atlantic coast.
Through the day today, the high pressure that has brought us hot, dry conditions will push eastward.
/Issued 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/ Cooler temperatures have settled over the area this morning, along with patchy low clouds resulting from light winds and a moist boundary layer.
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will lead to quiet weather today.
Sunday we will continue to be under the influence of the ridge over the Rockies with northwest flow aloft. By Sunday, the upper level disturbance moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region gradually builds east toward the central Plains.
Little change in the overall pattern during the next 24-36 hours as the area continues to be sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and of course, powerful Hurricane Dorian just east of the Bahamas.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Widely scattered convection across east Texas and adjacent areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Oklahoma to gradually diminish through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating along with a gradual weakening of a stagnant upper-trough aloft. Upper-level ridge across the southwest to build east into the ArkLaTex allowing for high temperatures to again creep into the mid 90s across the Ouachitas from the lower 90s today. Otherwise, dry conditions expected on Sunday with low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s.
Another area of showers may develop from central MO to northeastern MO as moisture wraps around a low pressure area in eastern MO.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature through Sunday.
We can't rule out a couple moving off the higher terrain through the late afternoon/early evening hours with convective temps being reached, but overall the return to dry and warmer weather is well underway. For Sunday, the ridge continues to build in our direction with further warming.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON LABOR DAY WITH A AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Changes for this afternoon were focus on labor day weekend.
331 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will maintain a subsident/dry airmass over much of the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of the weekend.
Sunday will be notably warmer than today as skies slowly clear out. This warmup will occur as ridging expands over the Rockies.
On the synoptic scale, a strong high pressure aloft is dominating the southern CONUS, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. A deep closed low and associated trough at 500 mb are currently off the western coast of the CONUS. Conditions are relatively quiet at the surface, with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a stationary front to our west in Montana. A low stratus deck in southwest and south central North Dakota has not eroded as much as expected, keeping temperatures cooler than forecast.
322 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 An inverted trough will continue to shift west away from the area as Dorian continues to approach the Bahamas from the east.
Tweaked high temperature forecast as many locations across the central Valley warm into the low 70s.
105 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will lead to quiet weather today.
1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Rather tranquil northwest flow resides with mean upper ridge across Pacific northwest and mean trough over northeastern states.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will interact with the frontal boundary to further contribute to shower and thunderstorm development.
Temperatures this afternoon are in the low to mid 80s over the the SE where sunny skies have been the rule, while other areas are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Potential for some showers and storms along a weak cold front moving through Tue evening into Tue night, but that potential is low enough to keep precip out of the forecast for now. Cooler temperatures prevail Wed into Sat with highs from the mid 70s N to the mid 80s S.
Sunday we will continue to be under the influence of the ridge over the Rockies with northwest flow aloft. A warm Labor Day is upcoming as we will continue to be under the influence of an upper level ridge in the Rockies and winds near the surface turn more to the southwest.
Expect this to result in a bit more in the way of diurnal cloud cover on Sunday, with highs remaining in the lower 90s. A very weak wave of energy aloft will approach the TN Valley region late Sunday as high pressure further amplifies over the southwest CONUS and slides further east, shifting the upper trough more toward the Atlantic coast.
130 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather inland this morning, with higher humidity in the lower deserts.
1120 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary still west of the forecast area, with high pressure centered over the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southwest US, with a ridge building northward over the Great Basin region. A warming trend will take place over the holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through Sunday as a low pressure disturbance located near Vancouver Island slowly weakens and shifts inland. The models are showing increasing SW flow across the CNTRL mountains as a result of the incoming trough.
218 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Upper level high pressure continues to be centered west of us out near the Four Corners.
High pressure at the surface to the E/NE of the area over the Carolinas has provided a bit of E/SErly flow, and will make for a nice and quiet night tonight. High pressure will build into the area a bit more for Sunday, and with that, a tad more moisture is expected across the area. No rain is expected through this time, with daytime highs topping out in the lower 90s.
If this scenario does happen, there is the potential for brief downpours, cloud to ground lightning and thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 mph as suggested by area forecast soundings depicting a V-shape inverted trough. This feature is likely to interact with lingering outflow boundaries moving across Central Texas and an area of weakness/lift within the southern part of the upper level ridge over the four corners region.
Given that the low levels air so dry across Se Mi, per 12Z DTX sounding, deepening of the afternoon mixed layer through diurnal heating will likely erode any cu before they can made inroads into the terminals. High pressure centered across northern Lower Mi and Lake Huron will maintain a light (less than 10 knots) easterly wind through the afternoon. Closer home, a large high pressure system continues to shift east across the region. This high will maintain a rather dry low level profile across the region into the first half of the weekend.
202 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east across upstate New York today.
128 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure over Central California will keep the forecast area warm for the next few days through Labor Day.
Dry conditions return for Labor Day with highs in the lower 80s.
332 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak upper level trough was moving east across central KS into eastern KS early this afternoon. An upper level ridge across the southwestern US will expand east into the southern high Plains. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend as easterly flow begins increasing moisture across the area. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes ridging into the area. Easterly flow persisting tonight with high pressure ridging in from the north and Dorian approaching the FL coast. A few showers will remain possible overnight in the eastern Midlands and the lower Savannah River area.
109 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Clear and calm conditions are expected to continue as high pressure dominates the region, keeping VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the forecast period.
310 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary remains south of the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the northeast across upstate New York this afternoon and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight are forecast to be in the low 70s. (Sunday Night through Saturday) An upper level high is expected to be our dominant weather feature through the week.
216 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dry and quite warm conditions expected over the CWA the next couple days as an upper high centered in the 4 corners area remains in place and even strengthens a bit into this area.
Could not rule out a brief period of MVFR and local IFR ceilings near and at the coast early this morning, including North Bend, but confidence is not high enough to include the lower conditions in the TAF. Onshore flow is expected to increase tonight in the wake of a cold front with IFR and occasional LIFR ceilings along the coast and just offshore. Winds become northerly late Sunday as a weak thermal trough develops.