Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hi-res models suggest the area of convection over northwest TX will expand southward along a cold front this morning. A cold front will move through late this morning and bring improving conditions by early afternoon. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the western US with the base of the trough west of Texas. A cold front will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA tomorrow.
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 The warm start to October has come to an abrupt end as a seasonably strong cold front has swept southward through the area. As of 08Z the cold front had cleared the CWA and was stretching roughly from Andrews to Abilene and moving steadily southward. Gusty northerly winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph has been carrying in cooler and drier air, with temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s and dewpoints dipping into the 30s. Most spots should see highs peak in the lower to middle 60s, though the exact number will be determined by exactly how much insolation each location receives.
Expect seasonable temperatures and light northeast winds today as high pressure briefly moves across Arizona.
Currently, a thermal trof is dominating the region as a weak ridge pattern develops ahead of a split flow pattern moving through the Eastern Pacific. The thermal trof, along with the weak ridge, will support a gradual rise in temperatures over Central California.
406 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 The cold front was through the Texas Panhandle as of 3:30 AM and was moving across the Red River Valley. An upper level high pressure ridge over the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico placed a southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast Texas. 40 Surface analysis at 08Z has a cold front pushing into N Texas with a line of convection along it. Cold front over N Texas should push south during the day and reach the Houston area by the evening hours.
450 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 A cold front will move through the region Saturday.
/Issued 617 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ Cold front moving through the Panhandles will bring with it a strong shift out of the north with gusts up to 35kt. On Friday the upper level trough will be pulling up into the Great Lakes region while high pressure begins building into the Southern Plains.
247 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 High pressure exits tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday.
524 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 A cold front will move through the region Saturday.
Sfc ridging remains stacked across our area and thus, clear skies over the mid state.
A cold front moving through today and tonight will give small chances for showers and storms across mainly the northern counties and usher in cooler temperatures behind it. Then dry weather is expected with upper ridging moving across the area and near normal temperatures. The upper ridge will move off to the east by mid week and this could allow rain chances to move back in. A cold front will move in from the west later this afternoon and evening. Expecting a few degrees cooler than yesterday given some mid and high cloud cover will be arriving ahead of the front and inhibit warming during the afternoon. An upper trough moving through Saturday behind the cold frontal passage of Friday evening will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs only in the 60s and lows Saturday night in the mid 40s.
A cold front will push through the state Friday, with winds turning to the north, increasing, and becoming gusty across the northern counties. (51) High pressure continues over Arkansas tonight but should weaken enough to let a cold front pass through the state late tonight and Friday.
334 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A cold front poised just west of the Mississippi River early this morning will continue to move eastward today.
continuing to be strong on Saturday as high pressure builds in behind Matthew as it pulls northeast. with a dry sfc cold front pushing across the CWA and high pressure filtering in closely behind.
Upper ridge will continue over Norcal through the rest of the week providing dry conditions with a warm temperatures.
223 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Cold front currently moving across the Red Rive of North Texas and portions of eastern Oklahoma this morning. With a lack of moisture across the region, cold front will move across the region without any discernible convection.
the region is seeing temps in the lower to mid 30s. warming trend will continue for the entire CWA as H5/H7 ridge builds over the central portion of the country.
219 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 A strong cold front is beginning to move into the region from the northwest as of 2 AM, and will continue to push through the area this morning. Dewpoints will tank this afternoon into the 40s as high pressure starts to build into the area. This will set the stage for a chilly night, with low temperatures in the low 40s for most.
The upper low continues to rotate over southern Canada, with another vort lobe on the southern edge currently moving through the CWA. Tonight, northwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the upper trough.
649 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will remain across the area today and tonight then move east on Saturday.
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 The next 12 hours look to be a bit busy as storms persist across the region ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front that will sweep through far eastern Kansas and Missouri later tonight. It is this large trough it will push the frontal boundary southeast trough eastern Kansas and Missouri tonight. The low levels of the atmosphere have remained a bit stable in area due to the cloud cover from the convection earlier today. Winds this morning will remain gusty out of the north following this evening's cold frontal passage with speeds gradually weakening through the afternoon hours as arriving high pressure relaxes the pressure gradient.
0 inches, as upper-level ridging builds across the region.
A cooler and much drier airmass moves in for the rest of the weekend Overall the main challenge in the forecast deals with the timing and coverage of any showers/thunderstorms today. A much drier and cooler airmass moves in for the remainder of the weekend.
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure and a seasonably warm airmass will remain in place across the area today. A cold front will push east across the region tonight, ushering in a cooler airmass for the weekend. A mid level trough will weaken as it moves into the western Great Lakes region through this afternoon. This will help push a cold front east toward our area through late afternoon.
253 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through tonight.
1119 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Broad upper trough sits across the central CONUS with the upper low across central Canada. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the night and Friday with high pressure in control. Temps tonight are expected to reach freezing across the CWA. except for nw SD which reached freezing temps early this morning.
651 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure and a seasonably warm airmass will remain in place across the area today. A cold front will push east across the region tonight, ushering in a cooler airmass for the weekend. A mid level trough will weaken as it moves into the western Great Lakes region through this afternoon. This will help push a cold front east toward our area through late afternoon.
Today Through Saturday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas early this morning, and was accompanied by showers/isolated thunderstorms. Farther northwest, cooler air will keep temperatures closer to seasonal. Readings this afternoon will range from the mid 60s in the northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. High pressure and very dry air will build into the state from the Plains Saturday. Under the high, as winds diminish Saturday night, temperatures will drop into the 40s/lower 50s.
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 (Today and Tonight) The cold front that has been advertised for several days now was approaching the I-20 corridor in the Big Country this morning as of 230 AM. We will be much cooler overall, but models have varied on how much influence low clouds will have on highs. The NAM has been consistently cooler with more low cloud coverage, but the latest LAMP guidance has trended this direction. Thus, will not go quite as cool as the NAM, but cooler than the MAV guidance overall. Highs should range from the lower 60s north of I-20 to the upper 70s south of I-10.
The Freeze Warning is in excellent shape with a large part of the CWA experiencing freezing conditions. A cooler day can be expected today with potential for gusty winds out west, then temperatures should moderate into the weekend with generally light winds.
Forecast Confidence Medium Last band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will cross the forecast area this morning, pushing out of the east between 14Z and 16Z with forcing along cold front that was approaching the western CWA at 08Z.
316 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A decent short wave will move thru the region today dragging an assoc cold front thru the area. This activity is assoc with a cold front that will push thru the CWA today. Temps in S cntrl IA as of 3 AM were in the mid/upper 40s and this is the air mass that is fcst to advect into the region behind the cold front. highs will struggle to reach the lower 60s across the nthrn FA.
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 High pressure exits tonight. A cold front crosses early Saturday.
The current situation has the long wave trough still exiting the Rockies upstream with the right entrance region divergence of a MN/Ontario jet segment producing widespread mainly high level lift and clouds from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes.
High pressure will bring a drier and warmer airmass today through Saturday.
239 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 07Z Cold frontal position is from just W of DBQ to near SGF and on down toward DFW. Further east, the highs may reach closer to but still fall just short of yesterday's highs. Post fropa isallobaric pressure rises will tighten the gradient between the High pressure centered over MO/KS and Matthew centered near FL/GA coast, resulting in a stiffer breeze for us from this PM into the evening-overnight hours. Gradually, the High center propagates eastward overnight-tmrw, which slowly relaxes the gradient north and west of the Ohio river, tapering to our south/east ptns FA a little thereafter, as the High centers broadly from IND to LSX by 00Z Sun. Dew point temps will peak today in the lower 60s, along and just ahead of the incoming front. And High temps will be running 10-15F cooler.
Moistening of the lower atmosphere will continue as winds become more easterly through the column. A 500mb ridge of high pressure will build across Texas and Northern Mexico. a weak cold front is sinking south across the Panhandles region. and over the lower river valley on Saturday as one more surface inflection interacts with the cold front.
Area of high pressure expands eastward through the day on Friday as the upper trough exits eastward. Winds quickly weaken at the sfc behind the cold front overnight, setting up the potential for patchy frost across north central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are on track to be the coolest day of the forecast with readings in the lower to middle 60s.
Based on current trends and overall consensus, dewpoints should drop into the mid 30s to low 40s along this ridge. Trended temps closer to the cooler MET guidance for Sat AM as a result, with PNC dipping into the upper 30s. The highest chances are expected over NW OK where enough BL moisture will be present. The ECMWF and GFS diverge quite a bit in the extended with the timing and progression of the next cold front (GFS more aggressive as its mid to upper flow is more amplified).
Cooler air will continue to infiltrate into the plains as the secondary front move through. Main weather concern for tonight will be widespread freezing temperatures across the region. Expect all lower elevations to be at or below freezing tonight.
Our region is embedded between a trough to our northwest and powerful hurricane Matthew to our southeast. Tonight though the trough will swing through the region, with only a change in wind shift at first. As the pressure gradient tightens over us Saturday we will notice more the cooler air pouring into the region on stronger north winds. Highs Saturday should be anywhere from 10- 15 degrees cooler than today.
The cold front that we have been talking about for nearly a week will arrive through the ArkLaMiss region later tonight into Saturday.
331 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Deep upper trough across the Upper Midwest this morning has resulted in cool temperatures across the area. With temps currently near freezing at KHON, will keep the freeze warning going there, but with warmer temps elsewhere than anticipated, will change the freeze warning to a frost advisory for this morning. Another cold night is expected tonight with temperatures approaching freezing in the highway 14 corridor.
445 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Early this morning temperatures were dropping below or approaching freezing in the Eastern Uinta Basin and Paradox Valley so these areas were added to this mornings freeze warning. A cold and dry airmass over the area and clear skies overnight resulted in freezing to near freezing temperatures this morning in some lower elevation areas that have not yet received freezing conditions. A freeze warning remains in effect until 9 am mdt for portions of the northwest CO plateau, upper Colorado River valley and the lower Gunnison and Uncompahgre River valleys.
A passing cold front will then bring another chance for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Drier and noticeably much cooler weather is expected behind this front. Highs on Saturday in the lower 60s and lows in the lower 40s. Otherwise dry tonight into Fri am as dynamical focus shifts west along approaching cold frontal boundary extending southward of disturbance lifting up across the wrn lakes. Primarily VFR conditions through the period with focus on veering surface flow as cold front slides eastward across northern IN this afternoon.
606 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through tonight.
Fair skies and warm temperatures are expected through the weekend as an upper level high pressure ridge slides across northern California.
An upper trough is currently situated over Vancouver Island with weakening surface front as it makes landfall. Models suggest the kinematic forcing associated with this trough will mainly stay north of our forecast area, but may trigger some showers over northern Custer county this afternoon. A freeze warning will remain in place until 8am, and temperatures are slowly approaching the freezing mark, but are a bit warmer than forecast.
331 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Cold front has pushed through most of Oklahoma this morning. High temps will be a good 15-20 degrees cooler today behind the front with gusty north winds. Most locations will be in the 40s with the cooler sites in the upper 30s.
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will continue to slide south into Oklahoma and Texas. Meanwhile, the dome of high pressure behind this front will move into eastern Kansas by this afternoon.
As of mid afternoon, mostly sunny skies prevailed across the lower Ohio Valley as the region lies between a low pressure system and surface front across the central Plains and Hurricane Matthew centered in the Bahamas. Temperatures have risen into the lower to middle 80s. On Friday, a very moisture limited cold front will approach the region, mainly in the afternoon. Plan on highs to still make it into the low 80s with mostly to partly sunny skies. Plan on lows Friday night in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s in the urban cores.
146 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 An approaching cold front will bring rain to the area later today through Saturday morning.
A cold front will approach Deep South Texas just beyond this TAF cycle. /issued 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across northeast Mexico and deep south Texas tonight. The upper level ridge will move across southwest TX Friday but low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal sections Fri afternoon and this will provide at least seabreeze convection across the coastal sections of the CWA. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area Friday afternoon as a weak cold front moves southward through north central TX.
Another upper level trough was over the southern MAN/SASK border. Will continue to keep lows mainly in the low to mid 40s although the usual cool spots of the far northwest near Langdon and near Fosston could see lows dipping into the upper 30s. Skies will quickly clear from west to east allowing temperatures to drop to the lowest readings thus far this season. The latest model runs are in very good agreement with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the lower single digits.
739 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure over eastern NY State will move off the New England Coast tonight.
/issued 354 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a trough over the NW Gulf Coast with the deepest moisture residing generally along and east of a line fm the lower Atchafalaya River sw toward the upper TX coast. At the sfc, a weak ridge of high pres extends over the Ohio valley sw toward E TX, while a weak inverted trough was approaching the cntl Gulf fm the east. Conditions will be warm and muggy with overnight lows expected to reach the lower to middle 70s. The weak trough in the mid lvls will meander over the nrn Gulf the next few days.
A few cells have tried to form near Greensburg and Meade Kansas near the cold front, but have struggled to maintain themselves. Overnight lows were lowered about 1-2 degrees as the air remains fairly dry with surface dewpoints mainly in the lower to mid 60s, which combined with some thin cirrus clouds and a decent southerly breezy should allow for some radiational cooling.
1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2016 Quick forecast update to increase PoPs (20 to 30 percent) across the coastal waters for the remainder of the night and pull the mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms farther north towards the Highway 59 corridor. Models continuing to build the upper ridge over the SE U. these next few days as an upper low develops and deepens out west and moves across the central Rockies. one has a ridge atop the region while the other is trying to draw a trof/shear axis in from the west.
Models continuing to build the upper ridge over the SE U. these next few days as an upper low develops and deepens out west and moves across the central Rockies. one has a ridge atop the region while the other is trying to draw a trof/shear axis in from the west.
A weak tropical wave looks to close in on the east Florida coast, generating showers and a few thunderstorms which may pivot west southwest about the western edge of the low pressure center. In the wake of this system, east to southeast flow looks to persist as weak high pressure holds north and east of the waters.
Temperatures have climbed into the low to middle 80s and with dew points in the 50s and completely clear skies, it's an unbelievable day. Models are hinting at some convection south of Middle TN tomorrow afternoon, but with the ridge aloft and the influence of its subsidence, I think we will remain mostly dry.
636 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Water vapor satellite this afternoon showed a short wave trough over eastern Colorado that was moving to the northeast. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Minnesota into western Kansas. The short wave trough will continue to move northeast and is expected to pass over the area late tonight through Tuesday morning. The low level moisture transport does not look all that strong and primarily through the area until late tonight when a split in this flow develops with part of the flow briefly becoming focused on the southern sections of the forecast area.
/ISSUED / Quick forecast update to increase PoPs (20 to 30 percent) across the coastal waters for the remainder of the night and pull the mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms farther north towards the Highway 59 corridor. Models continuing to build the upper ridge over the SE U. these next few days as an upper low develops and deepens out west and moves across the central Rockies. one has a ridge atop the region while the other is trying to draw a trof/shear axis in from the west.
Ill defined but it looks like a small trough or circulation on RAP around 500 mbars to our south down through Alabama and Georgia. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60's.
950 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Upper level trough extended from northern MAN to northern CA. Upper level trough over Canada expected to shear off to the east and begin a split flow pattern over North America tonight and Tue. Canadian upper trough will move across the area Tue. Another upper level trough was over the southern MAN/SASK border. Will continue to keep lows mainly in the low to mid 40s although the usual cool spots of the far northwest near Langdon and near Fosston could see lows dipping into the upper 30s. Skies will quickly clear from west to east allowing temperatures to drop to the lowest readings thus far this season. The latest model runs are in very good agreement with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the lower single digits.
Sunny skies dominated the afternoon for the Midwest as a whole as high pressure dominated the Great Lakes and much of the region. Warm temperatures continued with southerly surface winds with return flow behind the ridge axis to the east. Southwesterly flow will help to continue the warming aloft and at the surface through the overnight and through at least the first half of tomorrow as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW. The front is associated with a trof aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay back to the Central Pacific coast. The cold front is not exactly in parallel flow just yet.
This evening high pressure resided over the Gulf Coast states while an upper low was developing along the West Coast of California. Southerly winds at the surface will also continue to transport moisture back into the region which should keep temps several degrees warmer compared to last night. current temps and dewpoints were running about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24-hrs ago.
852 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through midweek as a the stalled front to our south gradually dissipates.
404 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016 An upper upper low moves over the area tonight and Tuesday.
(Issued 322 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016) Latest satellite and surface analysis show a weak low pressure system just SW of Mobile, AL. A warm front associated with this system is draped from southern MS through central AL up into east central GA.
828 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through Tuesday night along with warm temperatures on Tuesday.
However, the approaching short wave indicated in satellite imagery over central Colorado will help showers fill in a bit more across the lower elevations over the next few hours, and then gradually lift northeast across the plains during the overnight hours. Low level moisture is a bit low for fog in all but the foothills and possibly Palmer Divide where cloud deck coincides with the higher terrain. Could see some drizzle develop later tonight with sufficient but still relatively shallow moisture depth and enough upslope forcing in the low levels. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon over the high country. Due to the high pressure over eastern Colorado and the extensive cloud cover it will be a cool day with most areas on the plains remaining in the 60s.
A cold front is currently passing through Minnesota late this afternoon. We eventually expect development farther south along the cold front this evening and tonight - perhaps over far east central and southeast MN before moving into western WI. The boundary will be a little deeper this evening and the low level flow ahead of the boundary will increase tonight. Cooler and dry Fall-like weather spreads in tomorrow.