Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, a low is analyzed over Louisiana, with a trailing cold front extending into the Gulf of Mexico and another frontal boundary stretching across the northern Gulf coast and across the Florida/Georgia border. It should be noted that there remains the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight given some strengthening in the low-level wind fields forecast toward 12Z, and this lines up well with the Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook for tonight, which shows Levy and Citrus counties in a marginal risk for severe weather through 12Z. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate overnight and into Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches the area, with MVFR cigs expected for much of Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected starting overnight or early Tuesday morning and continuing through the day as a cold front moves through the area.
An Upper level trough and an associated surface front were pushing eastward across North Dakota. The low is then forecast to move slowly eastward during the day. Strong northwesterly winds are forecast behind the low, with mean boundary layer winds near 35 kt and peak speeds at the top of the mixed layer pushing 50 kt. Determining the westward extent of that area of snow is one challenge to the forecast, but the multi-model consensus is generally on board with it extending to the Highway 83 corridor. The 12 UTC ECMWF is particularly robust with higher amounts of snow all the way westward into the Highway 83 corridor from 09 to 15 UTC, but even the GFS and NAM simulated enough light snow that we were confident enough to post a blizzard warning for that area.
311 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic cold front now southeast of the forecast area, with gusty northwest winds and slowly falling temperatures behind it. Upper level analysis shows low over south central Canada, with broad trof sweeping across the northern high plains right now.
Surface wise, A western Atlantic ridge axis extends across south Florida, with a north-south oriented cold front is draped over the western Gulf of Mexico.
402 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Warm front situated along the immediate LA coast and cutting across Plaquemines Parish near Pointe a la Hache to Mobile Bay at this time.
615 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites this evening with gusty north winds in its wake.
637 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 An upper low across SW TX will lift NE through the period, merging with an upper trough swinging through the upper mid-west. The wedge will retreat to the NE as a warm front trapped across southern GA lifts north. High pressure will build into the area late Tuesday allowing things to dry out fairly rapidly. Also, anticipate gusty westerly flow Tuesday afternoon behind the low. Temps will continue to increase Tuesday with highs around 60 across the higher elevations to the lower 70s down toward central GA. With the low to the north of the area and NW flow bringing in drier and cooler air Tuesday night, expect temps to fall quickly with lows in the low/mid 40s across north GA and upper 40s further south.
IFR/LIFR will persist at all terminals through the night as low pressure continues to advance northeast across the region. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows the pesky upper level low has now opened up into more of a wave and is located over Central Texas, moving off to the east-northeast. A dry slot wrapping around just ahead of the upper low has been moving across Southeast Texas and into Southwest and West Central Louisiana.
917 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
1029 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Cut back POPs across the north a bit this evening/tonight based on current radar trends and current position of upper low. Rain will taper off towards evening as the low moves northeast of the forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 60 42 55 / 100 90 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 59 41 52 / 100 100 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 58 41 52 / 100 100 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 54 39 51 / 90 100 30 10 TN.
914 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A low pressure system, currently located in Central Louisiana, will lift northward tonight bringing widespread rain to the Mid-South. Temperatures will hold steady overnight with readings in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
A cold front will move across the region this evening and early Tuesday morning.
1220 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure today. A warm front tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
With plenty of low level moisture and light winds this evening under the influence of high pressure, LIFR-IFR conditions will be possible again Tuesday morning. On the western edge of low level high pressure, light winds from the south will continue to advect moisture into the area.
However, the higher winds may inhibit the fog getting too dense.
Upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. As the cold front moves into the CWA this morning, winds across northwestern SD will become light and northeasterly. Forecast soundings still hint at freezing drizzle over the western SD plains. Will leave out mention for now, but added a broad area of freezing fog. Expecting fog to dissipate around 09Z as winds become northwesterly and breezy with the cold front.
Temperatures remaining above freezing last night in the Cassia County area and near Raft River contributed to runoff and flooding in low lying areas. Should be slow to reverse the trend back to freezing. Thus a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Lower Snake Plain and Caribou Highlands until Tuesday evening when the second round of precipitation has a chance to run it's course.
111 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Low pressure traveling from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday.
Lowered cigs will also be a issue and this will continue to be the case tomorrow morning as shra and tsra begin to move into the region with the arrival of a cold front.
Have included a PROB30 for thunder at the Arkansas TAF sites this evening and into the overnight hours as the dryline/cold front approaches. /Issued 1036 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/ The low clouds that have shrouded the area this morning are expected to quickly erode across much of the area Today as the moisture is very shallow.
100 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2017 A weak trough will bring clouds and periods of light rain over and west of the mountains through Tuesday.
307 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Surface meso low pressure centered just to the south of Sioux Falls associated with a synoptic low across western Kansas. Northwesterly flow behind this low will gradually spread across the area tonight. May see stratus become deep enough that there may be a little freezing drizzle across southwest Minnesota, but not much in the way of lift in the saturated layer. In addition, winds increase out of the northwest attempting to dry out the layer, so only left slight chance of freezing drizzle in Southwest Minnesota mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge.
1211 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Hydro A low pressure system will track eastward from Wyoming through Michigan today and into Tuesday. A period of freezing rain will be possible across interior and northern parts of Lower Michigan for the Tuesday Morning commute.
135 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Aviation A low pressure system will track eastward from Wyoming through Michigan today and into Tuesday. A period of freezing rain will be possible across interior and northern parts of Lower Michigan for the Tuesday Morning commute.
958 AM PST Mon Feb 6 2017 A trough moving across the region will bring periods rain through Tuesday along with gusty winds in the mountains and deserts.
323 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Rain chances will be increasing tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Central Plains.
Temperatures have quickly warmed into the lower to mid 70s across most locations, and we have adjusted max temps upward a few degrees in line with the latest observed trends.
114 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will rebuild across the area today.
1022 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Latest surface obs indicate the warm front has finally moved north of the CWA. /issued 527 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/ A well defined warm front was located just north of the TXK/ELD terminal, our northern most terminal locations as of 11z this morning. The fog was caused by wet soils from the cooling rains yesterday with warm air from the warm front moving over these areas. So commuters should use caution and take extra time for your commute, the warm front that caused the fog should be confined to southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas through mid to late morning.
1036 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 The low clouds that have shrouded the area this morning are expected to quickly erode across much of the area Today as the moisture is very shallow.
1251 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Rain chances will be increasing late today through this evening as a low pressure system approaches from the Central Plains.
150 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warm front tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
The low level jet will begin to shift overnight but the moisture should be sufficient to produce areas of fog over most areas overnight. A bit cooler Tuesday night with the trough bringing slightly drier and and most likely a weak land (westerly) wind by morning. SCEC winds southern areas and offshore this evening, with lighter winds Tuesday and Tuesday night with the trough.
Medium to High Low pressure will approach from the southwest tonight, clipping the southeast forecast area on Tuesday. May see some drizzle this evening as low level moisture and warm advection increases ahead of the low. Temps are expected to dip to or just below freezing this evening into tonight in the northern forecast area. This will allow for a period of freezing rain and freezing drizzle, with a light glaze to around 5 hundreths of an inch expected. Have thus opted to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for the northern forecast area counties for late evening through Tuesday morning.
/issued 1023 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/ A secondary warm front is pushing north through the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning and was located roughly from KLIT to KCBM at 16z. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s. Most of the region will see morning lows in the low 50s. Rain is surging back to the North in response to a trough deepening over the Southern Plains. bringing warmer moister air across the Midsouth.
105 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Rain chances will be increasing late today through this evening as a low pressure system approaches from the Central Plains.
403 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Low pressure moving to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers tonight through Tuesday.
1023 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 A secondary warm front is pushing north through the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning and was located roughly from KLIT to KCBM at 16z. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s. Most of the region will see morning lows in the low 50s. Rain is surging back to the North in response to a trough deepening over the Southern Plains. bringing warmer moister air across the Midsouth.
309 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A southerly flow will continue through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. The cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
404 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity data have shown a slow- moving, persistent area of showers, some heavy, drifting northwestward across the Straits of Florida, Florida Reefs, and Hawk Channel adjacent to the lower Florida Keys. The overall large-scale weather pattern is similar to this morning and yesterday, with nearly zonal flow at upper levels prevailing over most of the continental United States and weak ridging over the Gulf basin and Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a high pressure ridge extends from the western North Atlantic to the western Gulf basin. After tonight, this ridge should move slowly southward toward the Florida Keys.
Low level stratus and reduced visibilities will be the theme for the remainder of the afternoon hours as temperatures and dew points continue to rise into the lower to mid 50s for areas south of the Missouri River.
401 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warm front tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
Patchy fog is also lingering along the warm front. 56/GDG Rain will continue into Monday morning as a warm front lifts northward.
910 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2017 Scattered showers from a deep upper low moving toward northern Baja will continue through the night before ending Saturday morning.
Models are fairly consistent over the next 24 hours in taking the closed mid-level cyclone over the Baja into northern Mexico and then start to eject this northeast late in the weekend.
On the surface map, the cold front has pushed to northern LA with a northeast wind flow into AR.
An organized cold front comes through mid-week. Colder air to the north inching closer and will brush our northern counties with freezing rain. Drastically decreased amounts in the mountains given the warmer obs, but still have a tenth to two tenths of ice in the farthest east portions of Randolph County.
A stronger inverted trough will develop across the mid state tomorrow and greatly increase our rain chances by afternoon.
Periods of freezing rain and drizzle will affect KBVO through the period with KTUL and KRVS seeing freezing rain and drizzle through Saturday morning. Ongoing widespread precip across far E OK and W AR has largely remained south of the freezing line with much more scattered light freezing rain reported further north. Regarding precip type the freezing line has been adjusted slightly per observational trends which does introduce fzra a bit further southward overnight and the freezing rain advisory was adjusted accordingly. Temps look to remain just below freezing in this zone which may slightly limit accumulation potential and updated amounts remain below warning criteria thus no further expansion of the ice storm warning. Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Saturday for OKZ058- 060>062-064>067.
So with a little warmer air in the low levels, high temps today will break 30 over much of the area.
Current water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicates an upper level ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern U.
402 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 A cold front is positioned over southern Virginia. A large area of high pressure is moving into northern New York state.
Forecast soundings would suggest more of a sleet threat than freezing rain, which given the very light amounts could pose less of a travel hazard.
259 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move east today and allow a weak trough of low pressure to move through the lower Ohio valley.
303 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure will then build across the region tonight through the weekend. Intense low pressure is currently located to the northeast of the region. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will crest over the area today then move to the east. Weak low pressure will pass to the north of the state tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the region late tonight.
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 Will keep the dry forecast going for north central Nebraska as a ridge continues to build across the western Plains. Will see slightly cooler temperatures across the Pine Ridge region where temperatures could drop into the single digits. A closed upper low will cross just south of Arizona Saturday night as an upper ridge extends from the southeastern U.
1220 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 A clear and quiet night across our area, with high pressure along the MT/ND border. Currently, split flow aloft over North America with deep low pressure off the southern CA coast and weak upper level troughing over central Canada. Very nice temperature recovery from yesterday, 15-25 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to 24 hours ago. A sunny sky coupled with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph will bring a similar day temperature wise compared to today, a few degrees warmer north and east with highs there in the teens with near 25 southwest. Upper level low ejecting through the Central Plains merges with an Alberta Clipper moving southeast across the Northern Plains.
spreading freezing rain across much of central and southeast Illinois this morning. Based on radar timing tools and 07z HRRR, the freezing rain will reach the I-55 corridor from the Lincoln area southward by around 10z/4am. As a result, have only carried low chance PoPs for freezing rain this morning from the Peoria area northward. where a Freezing Rain Advisory will remain in effect through the entire day. kept freezing rain chances limited to locations along/southwest of a Rushville.
A resilient ridge will remain over the the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north Florida over the next few days. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure centered across the southeast states to the southeast coast will move little through the remainder of the weekend. The pattern across South Florida and the Keys does not change much over the next couple of days, remaining on the southern periphery of a persistent area of high pressure centered near or just off the southeastern coast.
325 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Early Saturday morning map analyses showed a dome of high pressure centered over the southeast CONUS bringing deep easterly flow to the Sunshine State.
Main issue will be some lingering moisture in the low levels, especially near Lake Michigan that also extends into portions of south central Wisconsin.
304 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. Intense low pressure is currently located to the northeast of the region. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will crest over the area today then move to the east. Weak low pressure will pass to the north of the state tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the region late tonight.
433 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry this weekend with seasonal temperatures.
An upper level low pressure system will track east across northern Mexico this weekend. Moisture associated with this low will reach into southern Utah, with some shower activity across southern Utah Saturday. High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the first half of the week, followed by a return to an active weather pattern late in the week. The well-defined upper low off the northern Baja coast this evening is just about ready to make the turn east and track across northern Mexico this weekend.
1120 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicates the closed low just off the west coast of California near the Mexican border. Downstream from the closed low the flow as zonal. There will be some WAA occurring tonight ahead of the upcoming ice storm, so lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night. Expect freezing rain and wintry mix to begin early to mid-afternoon for areas south of the the KS/NE border with the best chances south of a Goodland to Hill City line. As we go through the overnight, freezing rain and sleet chances spread northward and encompass our entire CWA.
The rain and freezing rain may actually decrease some toward the end of this forecast. Rain and freezing rain will the spread from south to north through the morning on Saturday. Believe that any freezing rain at AMA will turn to rain by mid morning. DHT should see mainly rain and GUY will likely be in the freezing rain for much of the day on Saturday.
Fortunately, temperatures will be above freezing, giving us a cold rain instead of the icy conditions observed farther north. Temperatures today should be similar to, if not a few degrees warmer, than what we saw yesterday. Official forecast temperatures are on the low side of model guidance.
Generally high pressure aloft will prevail this weekend for dry weather with continued below normal temperatures.
435 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Relatively cooler high pressure will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend.
Sfc obs showing fog really not an issue across the area yet, quite possibly due to weak lift from a disturbance aloft noted moving nwd around the wrn periphery of the sern CONUS ridge.
Today should bring higher rain chances particularly along and north of I-40 as a subtle disturbance rides the northern fringes of an upper high centered over the gulf. Tomorrow upper ridging will build in bringing rain chances down but with washed out stationary boundary in the vicinity low level inversion will still be present meaning abundant low clouds.
328 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 Warmer conditions will be the main forecast highlight in the short term period. an upper level cutoff low was off the coast of Baja California, with a ridge over the Canadian Rockies. A weak surface cold front/trough moved southeast across northern and eastern ND late Friday night. and reaching into the low to mid 20s mainly south and west of the river.
400 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 A cold front is positioned over southern Virginia. A large area of high pressure is moving into northern New York state.
432 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry this weekend with seasonal temperatures.
The bottom line is, despite relatively light precip expectations for most areas, is that a Winter Weather Advisory was added to the northern flank of the I 70 Freezing Rain Advisory. Other changes included a temporal expansion of the freezing rain advisory given expectations of limited temperature recovery and a trailing surge of precip later this morning and into the afternoon.
Main impacts and tricks tonight across the Rio Grande Valley airports will be the low ceilings that moved in this evening. Saturday will be another breezy day but nothing too cranked as we saw earlier this week with sustained speeds again in the teens with gusts into the 20s, mainly from the southeast or even east- southeast as direction remains a bit backed due to pressure fields at the surface (high pressure nosing into central Texas with the backing winds from northeast to southeast south of the front) and aloft (back edge of broad subtropical 500 mb ridge across the entire Gulf).
The lower troposphere is virtually saturated from the surface through the mid levels with occasional ripples of upper level energy tapping into the moisture producing overrunning precipitation. With such limited observation sites in that area, hard to know what surface temperatures are but one thing for sure they are near freezing. Latest temperatures (08Z) still hovering around 32 degrees so issued a Freezing Rain Advisory generally west of a line from Greenville to Marble Hill and Perryville Missouri to Carbondale and Mount Vernon Illinois. In addition the axis of a weak H5 ridge will build northwestward from the southeast US into the central plains.
/ISSUED 1025 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/ A cold front hung up along the I-35 corridor has keep this warm and moist air mass in place across southeastern Texas. an unstable enough lower 7-8 k ft layer to support under-the-cap showers within a continued warm and moist regional air mass (as the cold frontal boundary is forecast to wash out as it moves back to the northwest early Saturday).
1200 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions during the night while sliding from the central Great Lakes toward the New England states. Downstream ridge amplification over the Great Lakes and energy pivoting across central Canada will tighten the resident mass gradient and support a stationary upper jet well into the weekend.
348 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 Upper level low pressure well defined in water vapor imagery early this morning just off the SoCal/Baja coast. Main upper low will begin to track eastward across Baja into northern Mexico. Large area of condensation and cloud development, and eventual precipitation will occur across the southern Plains today which will ultimately serve to build the downstream ridge ahead of eastward moving upper low. However a dry forecast for western NE today and highs slightly warmer temps despite some cloud cover.