Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1141 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE. THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS. WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SUSPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUN. THOUGH IT DOES ALSO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUN.
THIS LOW WAS PART OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25- 26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
QUIET WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS EXITED INTO THE DAKOTAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY BUT AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.
449 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY.
Expect a little warmer temperatures across the region today and Tuesday as the trough over the region weakens and onshore flow slackens.
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
219 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.
Still lingering presence of Low pressure aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not exceed the lower 90s.
242 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 Broad ridging that has been in place across the central U. will slide slightly eastward today, allowing stronger southerly flow and slightly warmer temperatures to build into the area.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13 DEGREES.
248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 BROAD UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE S. TEMPS TODAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER THANKS TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT WEAKER.
241 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND WILL PASS OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have ended over eastern WA and north ID this evening as the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft have moved off into Montana.
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
402 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ARKANSAS AND INTO S TX EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND TROF AXIS NUDGING A BIT CLOSER TONIGHT & TUE WE SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE TUE & WED. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS INTO THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. MODEL CAMPS STILL SPLIT ON THE TROF/LOW MOVEMENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRY.
406 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY. THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
331 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 Looks as though most of the short term will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. then near 90 to the lower 90s Tue/Wed. A weak trof of low pressure embedded within the ridge may produce an isolated storm here and there, but looks like most locations will stay precip free.
SAF AND LVS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS WITH LESSER CHANCES AT AEG. THE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IS NOW INDICATED AS A TROUGH AXIS AROUND 300 MBS IN THE VICINTY OF NE TN/NW NC. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WERE ALLOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING COLD FRONT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN AND WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURN FLOW. THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM DURING THE WEEK MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND GIVE US SOME GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF TAMPA BAY. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS RIGHT ON ITS DOORSTEP. THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS ALLOWED THE RIDGE TO BUILD WEST. CONVECTION PERSISTS TO OUR NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE BARELY NOTICABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.
600 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT MAY SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING NICELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A FINGER OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO TO THE WESTERN CWA ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS. TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION LEAVING THE AREA IN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT. THERE IS SOME WEAK SPEED DIFFLUENCE IN CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. A LITTLE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPES AND INSTABILITY.
THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME ALIGNED IN A MORE PARALLEL FASHION WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AND ALTHOUGH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE EVENT TIED TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEVER PUSH ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MADE TO REFLECT A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR DATA CONFIRMS THAT BKN BAND OF TSRA ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE S/E OF HSV. A FEW SHRA WILL REMAIN PSBL THRU 24/08-10Z AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SEWD THRU THE REGION.
1212 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
330 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. SO WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS NEAR PBH IN PRICE COUNTY REPORTED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS NEAR KABETOGAMA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THERE TO INL. WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATING THROUGH THE TROF. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA WITH AN INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTH INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES WERE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE A QUIET LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE. MAY BE HARD TO TOTALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE.
A LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE SNOW. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAZARDS DUE TO HOW LIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAK OF PRECIP. BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FOR THU WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPS.
1237 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 1. CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME SPORADIC ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MORE CHANNELED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE A POCKET OF 500 J/KG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE/SCT SHOWER/STORM MENTION GOING THROUGH THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING/COLD FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS.
358 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN SHALLOW INFILTRATION OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS FRI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING DIGGING FURTHER INTO THE SWRN CONUS.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA LEAVES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IT SHOULD LOOSE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. VERY COLD AIR PILING UP ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS GRADUALLY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING FROM 1026MB IN WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THIS NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AND MOVING AWAY. DRY WEATHER WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE VERY LONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
South to southwest winds of 8 KTS or less will become north around 5 KTS late morning/midday at KABI, KSJT and KBBD, as a weak cold front moves in. A weak cold front will bring north winds around 5 KTS late morning to midday Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will sag into the I-20 corridor and bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Big Country, although still above normal.
WARMER AIR ALOFT. ESPECIALLY AS THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD EXITS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL TO SIDNEY WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE RIVER WITH DRIER. COOLER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES CLEARING. VERY WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST S AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A STRONG WARM FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY FROM THE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE.
1151 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 AVIATION A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SHIFTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH A SHORTER WAVELENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN CANADA BY DAY 8. THE REST OF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CIG RELIEF THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
359 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT. STEMMING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. DEEP TROUGHING RULES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS SHEARED OUT. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. PWATS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH AND ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY BRING TOTALS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END. WITH READINGS MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE HOLIDAY.
Satellite imagery shows one vorticity max spinning into southeast WY with a southward trough extension into south central CO.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH CHRISTMAS. THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRING A WET SPELL TO INDIANA WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEMS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE IS APT TO RETURN TO OUR STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK.
A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N/60W WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BLOCK ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.
1019 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING NWD OVERNIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AREA AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO TX THIS WKND.
The freezing level should lower to 3 kft and the snow level should be about/at least 500-1000 ft below that. Breezy to locally gusty winds are likely in the higher elevations.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH PASSES. BUT REMAINED 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FORECAST PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING. AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4500 FT IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AROUND 3000 FT IN THE HIGH DESERT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
Only changes were adjustments to low temperatures around the Moses Lake area where temperatures fell into the low to mid 20s this evening with patches of clearing allowing temps to drop. A weak surface boundary extending southeast from the low is present from Bellingham to Moses Lake to Spokane. A short wave embedded within the trough is producing snow this evening over the Spokane area and Palouse as well as southern Stevens and Pend Oreille counties extending east into the Idaho Panhandle.
with an upper low developing over the southwest and eventually ejecting across the southern Plains. The extended range models have come into better agreement concerning the timing of the potent upper low.
DYNAMICS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH. BUT SHEAR KEEPS SOME ROTATION GOING WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
1143 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.
329 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 As of 3 AM, a weak upper level short wave trough was quickly moving east across the central Plains. We should see a pretty mild day with highs ranging from the middle 50s around Rolla to the lower 60s across far southwestern Missouri. As this event gets going, it is quite possible that we see a fairly narrow focus for the heavy rainfall as deep tropospheric ascent will be absent outside of the low level frontal zone.
BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. IN ADDITION A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.
Generally cooler temperatures are expected tonight as a slightly cooler and much drier air mass moves into western Kansas under the influence of a westerly downslope flow developing late tonight. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 30s(F) in south central Kansas. Fairly seasonal temperatures are likely Thursday as the cooler air continues to filter southward into western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures to near 0C across portions of southwest and central Kansas. Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure deepening as it digs southeast across the Great Basin Friday setting up an increasingly difluent flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
8C) RESPECTIVELY WHICH IS A BIT WARMER (AT 500MB) THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN ANOTHER WARMER/MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL DAY ACROSS ECFL. STUBBORN CLOUDS HANGING IN ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAK FRONT BRINGS COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO W/WNW ACROSS THE AREA EVENTUALLY VEERING TO NNW/N LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES DOWN THE PENINSULA.
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, AREAS OF MORNING FROST AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A SMALL SCALE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.