Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
706 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS WITH STRONG JET STREAK EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN AND WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES TONIGHT.
1045 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
844 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW KEPT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AGAIN OCCURRED AS THE EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONE STORM PRODUCING NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OVER PINELLAS COUNTY. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S COAST TO MID/UPPER 80S INLAND.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CENTER ITS MAIN CORE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 500MB BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY BECOME SLIGHTER HIGHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND LOWER QPF RATES.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.
833 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S FAR EAST/NORTHEAST/USUAL COLD SPOTS TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U. WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING L/W TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ACT AS A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE NW PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT.
1136 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
900 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE FACE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S. WITH THE HIGH PW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.
806 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. WITH UPPER RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW WI. (DAYS 3-7) THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE RING OF FIRE FROM THIS UPPER RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE LOWER 80S.
144 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE AFTN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BUT AIRMASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG CDFNT OVER NW INDIANA/ERN IL. FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES LIFTING NEWD UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE UPR GRTLKS.
406 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
335 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE U. WHILE WEAK TROFFING REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA.
359 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK/N TX ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE SRN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SERN U. OUR REGION REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E AND THE TROF TO THE NW. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE COOLER TEMPS TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.
106 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TRACK ACROSS COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CLEAR AND SEASONABLE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO SHRINK A BIT OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD WHERE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND PREVAILING WESTERLIES STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. RECORD BREAKING HEAT TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. BETTER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the lower 70s.
For now have kept the lower ceilings out of the KCNM and KPEQ terminals but will monitor. Saturday will also pose a threat for severe weather as well with the mid level trough supporting maintenance of the surface lee trough over eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Instability and shear are not as good, but will be enough to support strong to severe storms east of the dryline and along the higher terrain.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER/NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST.
1206 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MID AFTERNOON RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCV OVER NORTHEAST KS ROTATING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWEST KS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALSO PRIMES THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS DURING THE COLLAPSE PHASE. A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH NEAR I-70 TONIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SECOND LOW/VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SECOND UPPER LOW.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS AFTN/EVENING COVERAGE SINCE THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
321 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PENINSULA RESULTING IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE MOVES VERY LITTLE. 5" AS WE ENTER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE A BROAD AND WEAK 500 MB TROUGH IS APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGE SCALE FORECAST MODELS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART BEEN GENERATING WIDESPREAD QPF OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST LOBE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE MUCH MORE REALISTIC WITH SPARSE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT.
332 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THIS CWA TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THANKS TO AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/STORMS.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY MAINTAINING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
Depending on how strong subsidence is behind this system, there could be some redevelopment of showers and storms this morning and into the afternoon across KS and into western MO where a deamplifying upper trough should provide some enhanced ascent.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN/WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND PUSH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE AT THE SURFACE. THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THIS REGION FAVORED FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND REACHING THE MID 90S IN SOME SPOTS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Storms will also develop thru the NW-N in assocn with weak mid level shrtwv trof.
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 06-18Z WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE NEAR KWWR AND KGAG.
204 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE PCPN TO BECOME MUCH MORE SCATTERED IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTH.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL SEND BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER NORTH ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/JETLET PROVIDING SOME SUBTLE BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
139 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE 500MB TROF OVER MONTANA DEEPENS. WE COULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE PROFILES DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF. STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH PERIODIC INTERRUPTIONS FROM AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING QUICKLY OVER THE DAKOTAS.
145 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING. A COOLER. MORE SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY. A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
406 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ND.
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING. A COOLER. MORE SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY. A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSITION THROUGH SUNDAY, ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A PREVAILING LEE SIDE TROUGH HELPS RETURN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS.
MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
1149 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAVE ALREADY DIE OFF. WILL SEE A DRY START TO SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR WYOMING ZONES IN THE LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY.
For now have kept the lower ceilings out of the KCNM, KPEQ and KFST terminals but will monitor throughout the morning. Storms will also develop thru the NW-N in assocn with weak mid level shrtwv trof.
/ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1. BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO EASTERN MS. EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD.
ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NW ND. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WITH WARMER START. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SLOWER ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BLO AVERAGE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE TROUGH PAIR THE GULF OF AK AND WESTERN CANADA WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE US. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NWRN ND. THE H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED SFC FOCUS IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXISTS. COULDN/T RULE OUT A STRAY TSRA IN THE PINE RIDGE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IT IN THE FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1. BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO EASTERN MS. EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD.
1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015 The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow moving upper trough. The highest threat for heavy rainfall appears to be on Saturday night/Sunday as LLJ once again strengthens after sunset.
COLD FRONT WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. CIRCULATION AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE GIVEN STRENGTHENING RIDGE.
120 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA FROM THE GULF WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
) WITH MOISTURE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING E IN RESPONSE TO BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF DRIFTING E ACROSS WESTERN KS HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR RENO & MCPHERSON COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
652 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES STATES AND WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE NW CONUS SUNDAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TODAY AS WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
303 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
346 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAKES HEAVY RAIN A GIVEN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
However, expect at least sct TSRA to develop across the ern Ozarks aided by a weak s/w rounding the nrn fringes of the upper ridge. Portions of central MO may be slightly cooler as precip moves into the area sooner.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT SOUTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING.
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A WEAK H8 WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. A S/W TROF AND THE LFQ OF AN 80 KT JET STREAK WILL IMPACT PARTS OF C/NC WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO EDGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVG. THE SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTHWARD PUSH ON SUNDAY. A BIT COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
A cold front moved through the area yesterday and last night. This front will cause temperatures to be cooler than previous days, as highs should be near normal for this time of year. A weak ridge of high pressure begins to build for the first part of the week. The ridge will cause temperatures to steadily warm, but should not be as significant as what was experienced this past week.
402 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TODAY WILL START OFF WITH A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U. ABOUT NOON A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TRAVELING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SW CO. ALONG WITH INCREASING UPLIFT AS THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE A WARMER TEMPS. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SENDS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTING THE HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. HOWEVER LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE HIGH POINTS WILL BE FAVORED. THE SOUTH WILL SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WESTWARD TO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTH MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING LATE INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS.