Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS MAINLY BEEN REALIZED IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ATTM COMPARED TO 24 AND 48 HOURS AGO DUE TO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND THE CLOUD COVER. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE REGION IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE OF THESE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANY INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
638 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 OVERVIEW: BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BOUNDED BY TROUGHINESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING INTO THE CWA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHOWERS END W-E BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY END AS DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE WESTERN U. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A WEAK TROUGH PROVIDES SOME FOCUS.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. S/W RIDGING ALOFT WILL DAMPEN SOME TONIGHT AS A WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. BUT CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE. AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. RIDGING WESTWARD INTO THE REGION AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
430 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADVANCED THE START TIME OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO MIDDAY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHERE SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL STATES. AS UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN STATES APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ATLANTIC STATES THEN LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE AREA. AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N BECOMING REINFORCED BY MID WEEK.
ABUNDANT MEAN LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NE GULF WITH VORT MAX ACROSS THE N FL. MODELS DEPICT MORE AREA WIDE HIGH END SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH UPPER RIDGE SPINNING OVERHEAD AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER N FL. THE BEST CONVERGENCE OF THESE EASTERLY WINDS AND THE WEEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS FROM AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. SAT-SUN: UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LEADING TO FURTHER INFUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SAT AS DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MORNING AS COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO CLEAR OUT BY AROUND MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
150 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY LATE FRIDAY.
947 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROF.
BROAD TROF OVER NATION'S MIDSECTION WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A 110KT JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND FEEDS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND DIRECTION VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SHIFTING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS THRU THE DAY AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC LIFTS UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND CRANKS THE FRONTAL TROF INTO CENTRAL FL.
437 PM MST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD UTAH TONIGHT. A FEW OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK.
613 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THRU THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
838 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
1012 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH. WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SAGGING SOUTH PUTTING A SQUEEZE ON THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN THE TRANQUIL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SCOOTING TO THE EAST. RESULTING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN PUMPING IN THE JUICE ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS.
1026 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
THE STRONG AND DRY UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THUR MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF AXIS TO THE EAST. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING THUR WILL BE FLATTENING OUT FRI WITH THE HELP OF A COUPLE OF STRONG DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
604 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AND INTO THE LOW-MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.
650 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THRU THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CAUSE LIGHT SW WINDS TO TURN TO LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT.
703 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
940 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. EVENING WEATHER MAP SHOWS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
741 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE.
650 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 411 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND 1029MB HIGH OVER TEXAS BIG BEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS FROM THE EASTERN PART OF GREAT LAKES REGION TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS BIG BEND. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TRAILING BACK THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAKING IT OVER THE RIDGE BUT NOT A GREAT DEAL AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN PRETTY QUICKLY FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THANKS TO LOW DEW POINT AIRMASS UNDER THE RIDGE AND CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH SOME 40S IN THE WINDY FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PACNW.
618 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA AND NORTHERN FL OVERNIGHT INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
Offshore short wave is weakening and tracking SSEwd as it encounters the W Coast ridge. Snow levels will be very high (above 8000 feet) so snow impacts will initially be limited to only the highest peaks.
542 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016 SFC RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL BE ORIENTED SW-NE DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE BY EARLY THU MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S SO WE SHOULD SEE A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE PLATEAU. FREEZING LEVELS REACH THE 600 FT AGL LEVEL AROUND 09Z ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
Otherwise, still looking at the potential for patchy freezing fog to affect FST, INK and MAF for a few hours Thursday morning. /issued 236 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ The upper trough that was over the area yesterday has begun to move southeastward. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s across a large portion of the area today. Since mostly clear skies, light winds, and freezing temperatures are expected tonight, freezing fog will be possible across portions of the CWA Thursday morning. Forecast soundings and the NAM12 surface humidity values are not indicating widespread fog so will not issue a Dense Freezing Fog Advisory at this point but will add in patchy freezing fog to the grids. Temperatures will warm up even further on Thursday as upper ridging starts to develop across the area.
823 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF I-40. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR MARINE DISTRICT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND VEER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 44 DEGREES.
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TX COASTLINE THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS. ELEVATED LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MID 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED FREEZING MARKS.
IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Model guidance suggests that large scale ascent will gradually increase overnight as the deep trough across the Western Gulf moves eastward.
411 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND 1029MB HIGH OVER TEXAS BIG BEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS FROM THE EASTERN PART OF GREAT LAKES REGION TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS BIG BEND. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TRAILING BACK THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
656 PM PST WED JAN 27 2016 A wetter and warmer storm will track through the area tonight and Thursday and will bring rain and high mountain snow. as well as local freezing rain in the valleys over the North Cascades.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 51 30 45 / 0 0 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 51 30 46 / 0 0 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 48 28 39 / 0 0 20 20.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHALLOW BUT ADEQUATE FOR A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON RADAR THAT WILL BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND THU.
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST LIKELY DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND HAVE INCREASED MIN TEMPS A DEG OR TWO IN SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AND INTO THE LOW-MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
113 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NE- SW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ACT AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ALL LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AND MOVE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIENED N-S ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY. DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD TROUGH INDUCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN ALONG WITH SEGMENTATION. UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BOOST ARE HEIGHTS A BIT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. THE GREATEST CHANCES APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF) AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEVADA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
332 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER. BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. THOUGH GENERALLY LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY.
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
118 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THIS TROF WILL TURN SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRUSH BY THE FCST AREA IN A DAMPENED FASHION TOMORROW AM. AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF THAT WILL BE OVER SRN SASK/MT. SURFACE: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SINKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW.
1045 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US. RW MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AVIATION UPDATED 1748Z HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY.
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT. TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AS OF 245 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE RECENT RECORD-BREAKING LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EAST OF THE SFC TROF.
417 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT, THE GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE'S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH.
SUBSIDENCE FROM EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY.
609 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.