Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect that with convective temperature of 85-86 and afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s can't rule out storms developing most anywhere this afternoon.
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A mid and upper level trough over the central Gulf combined with high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the north central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf is supporting a light southeast to southerly wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. East-southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with seas of 2 feet or less will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control.
532 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery positioned the center of the upper high over northeast NM, with a subtropical moisture plume extending from AZ into western WY. Convective allowing models and soundings prog 1500-2500 j/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 kt 0-6km shear, with the higher values over east- central WY.
556 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Widely scattered convection still firing late this evening across central Pa along axis of anomalous pwats preceding a slow-moving cold front over the Grt Lks. For overnight, will maintain the highest POPs across the Laurel Highlands and central mountains, where models place the axis of deepest moisture and marginal instability. High humidity and a fair amount of cloud cover will result in another mild night with min temps ranging from the low 60s over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. The slow-moving cold front will edge southeast into the region Wednesday.
552 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Dry conditions continue into Thursday as high pressure remains centered over Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as we get into return flow on the western side of the high and winds become southeasterly. More cloud cover is expected today as high clouds develop from a vorticity maxima pivots around the core of the ridge to our southwest. Lingering high clouds should lead to a warmer night across much of central and southern Minnesota with highs generally in the low 60s expected. Do not believe this cloud cover to be nearly as widespread across western Wisconsin, where mostly clear skies and calm winds under the high would allow for lows to drop into the low 50s.
High pressure over the area bringing another comfortable night with clear skies and calm to light winds. Today and tonight: High pressure will remain in control bringing mainly clear skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures and humidity. Highs will be in the lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
Otherwise highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, and around 5 degrees below normal for the end of July.
1039 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Currently - Lower level ridging extends across the Florida Peninsula is producing gentle broadly easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms have affected the broader area, but are now mostly concentrated over the gulf side waters of the Lower Keys to the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas. Short Term Update - Lower level ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the afternoon. Will maintain chances of rain transitioning to slight chance through the afternoon, as there remains some activity upstream of the Lower Keys. Loose ridging across Florida will maintain light to gentle mostly east breezes across Keys waters through the afternoon.
606 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 VFR conditions through tonight as upper level high pressure builds overhead. /issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ An upper level high will continue to dominate the pattern through most the forecast period resulting in hot temperatures and low to non-existent rain chances. The upper high is currently centered over western NM and is slowly pushing eastward.
626 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected today through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
Monsoonal ridge remains in place over the area through the short term.
400 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery positioned the center of the upper high over northeast NM, with a subtropical moisture plume extending from AZ into western WY. Convective allowing models and soundings prog 1500-2500 j/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 kt 0-6km shear, with the higher values over east- central WY.
/issued 349 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will extend across the southern Rockies into the Western High Plains the next 24 hours, with hot and dry weather persisting across West Central Texas. Warm temperatures expected again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower and middle 70s.
230 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2019 The overall synoptic pattern will change little through the end of the week, as broad cyclonic flow remains to the northwest, and upper ridging is fixed over the southeast across the Four Corners.
524 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging on track in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
540 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist today with a slow moving cold front. Mainly dry weather returns for most areas Thursday under building high pressure. Isolated showers are expected this morning under upper troughing, and ahead of an approaching cold front.
936 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist today with a slow moving cold front. Mainly dry weather returns for most areas Thursday under building high pressure.
Mid level moisture will continue to rotate around high pressure and move into southwest Montana.
The ridge of high pressure anchored over the southwest US continues to be the dominant feature in this pattern. Light onshore flow is expected to continue as the ridge holds tight and a trough persists to our east.
406 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An upper ridge over the southern Rockies will retrograde a bit to the west late this week into this weekend.
High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through the weekend.
619 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly this afternoon, as a cold front moves slowly across the state. Looking forward into the day, expect another round of fairly widespread showers/tstms to develop by midday as a cold front very slowly slips SE across the region through this eve. Ahead of the front, moisture and instability remain high enough to potentially kick off some stronger storms capable of producing strong downbursts and heavy rain - with the highest threat over the far SE counties where tstm threat will continue into early evening.
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure centered over northern Wisconsin this morning will keep conditions fairly quiet across the Northland today. The high will slip southeastward toward northern Lower Michigan by tonight which will result in a southerly return flow developing near the surface. Temperatures will nudge a few degrees warmer today with abundant sunshine expected.
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across the area will slowly move southeast through the day. The front will stall along the west side of the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Cold front bisects the forecast area early this morning. Mid level troughing persists with minor ripples moving through the trough. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile high pressure center will build a little further east into the western Great Lakes. Mid level troughing remains.
/Issued 406 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ An upper ridge over the southern Rockies will retrograde a bit to the west late this week into this weekend.
425 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Dry conditions continue into Thursday as high pressure remains centered over Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as we get into return flow on the western side of the high and winds become southeasterly. More cloud cover is expected today as high clouds develop from a vorticity maxima pivots around the core of the ridge to our southwest. Lingering high clouds should lead to a warmer night across much of central and southern Minnesota with highs generally in the low 60s expected. Do not believe this cloud cover to be nearly as widespread across western Wisconsin, where mostly clear skies and calm winds under the high would allow for lows to drop into the low 50s.
411 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
The CAMs have been showing for many runs now isolated to scattered convection within this low pressure area as early as 21 UTC, initiating in far southwest Kansas and expanding into the I-70 corridor around Hays and Wakeeney by around 7 or 8 pm. Deep layer shear is generally weak as the upper ridge has dominated the area for days, however steep mid level lapse rates will promote deep updrafts and a threat for perhaps a marginally severe wind gust and locally heavy rain and lightning continuing through the late evening hours far beyond sunset. Beyond the convective threat through the late evening, the lows tonight should be very warm in the mid 70s across the central Kansas counties, and not as warm out in the higher elevation counties near the Colorado line.
/issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ An upper level high will continue to dominate the pattern through most the forecast period resulting in hot temperatures and low to non-existent rain chances. The upper high is currently centered over western NM and is slowly pushing eastward.
Upper level flow remains northeasterly Thursday with full southeasterly flow in the low levels. Upper level ridging remains over West Texas with north or northeast flow aloft carrying weak upper level disturbances south into the area.
The upper ridge currently centered over the southern Rockies will continue to pump deep layer moisture across the forecast area through early Thursday. Early convection remains concentrated along the theta-e ridge along the southwest Utah/Nevada border region. Up north the deep layer southerly flow will buckle this afternoon with a mid-level trough forming from west-central Utah into extreme southeast Idaho by late in the afternoon. Dynamic support for lift with this developing trough along with increasing mid-level cold advection late this afternoon/early this evening suggests that convection capable of producing heavy rain will exist along the trough axis through the evening hours.
/issued 257 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ The highlight for this forecast packages is heat over the next few days followed by somewhat of a cooldown over the weekend.
Not much change in the upper level pattern for the short term period with high pressure ridge holding strong to the west.
112 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Upper level trough axis is departing to the east this afternoon while a smaller scale low level trough continues moving south into northern Indiana. Drier air will continue to slowly work into the low levels this afternoon and evening and erode the stratocumulus currently present south of a FNT-PHN line. High pressure builds in tonight and will lead to continued light northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies tonight into Thursday. Dry northwest flow and sprawling high pressure (1023 MB)/anti-cyclonic flow building into the Central Great Lakes will eventually win out, arriving tonight and more or less holding on through the weekend as upper level ridge axis over Central Canada is slow to break down.
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure remains in control of the weather across the CWA today. Expect clouds to dissipate over northern Illinois this evening and with light to calm winds forecast, went on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight. Expect similar highs to Wednesday, with values in the lower 80s area wide. Upper ridge to remain over the four corners region, with the active storm track remaining just to our southwest.
319 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Despite the fact that we are pretty much under the center of the ridge, and will be for the next few days, a CU field has developed thanks to moisture trapped in the H7-5 layer and afternoon heat.
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An area of persistent strato-cumulus stuck under the inversion near Mobridge will continue to have some influence through the early afternoon, otherwise clouds are mostly gone and high pressure to the east is responsible for a stiff south southeast breeze. For the short range, a strong mid level ridge centered over the southern high plains will continue to build slowly north over the next couple of days. Energy flowing through that ridge will provide for occasional chances for rain/convection. For now will maintain low pops, which reflects the low confidence that anything will fire up. However, by late Thursday into Thursday night, a decent looking wave is expected to ride the ridge, and then move out into the plains.
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Hot and dry will be the rule through the first part of the weekend as the region remains under the influence of a large upper ridge, currently anchored over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridge and associated easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will mitigate storm chances the next few days (aside from isolated potential in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains this afternoon), while southerly to southeasterly surface flow will keep low level moisture in place, yielding slightly humid days and mild nights.
Given the expected strong marine push as northeast flow fills in tonight around the eastern periphery of building high pressure, it stands to reason that some marine stratus or fog may manifest for areas north of I-69, though confidence is marginal at best. Otherwise high pressure and mostly sunny skies dominate through the end of the work week with temperatures near climatological average values.
1132 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 18Z TAF CYCLE Scattered cumulus forming around the higher terrain will be slow to develop into SHRA/TSRA today.
This should continue to be the case as showers and storms continue to fire in the higher terrain this afternoon. Temperatures will max out today at below normal value in the lower 80s. Tonights lows will also be slightly below normal, with most locations falling into the low to mid 60s. We can expect near normal highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday, as precipitation and cloud cover should not be quite as widespread as what we are expecting today. We will see continued influence from the upper level trough in the eastern CONUS and meanwhile an upper level ridge will dominate in the western portion of the country through the period.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge will remain over Montana through the weekend with warmer than normal temperatures. Waves will either overtop or flatten the ridge at times to combine with an unstable airmass to provide chances for thunderstorms. The warm front dissipates this evening and easterly winds will bring the higher dew points back west as a new lee side trough develops over Central Montana.
243 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the southwestern and south central CONUS with trofs over the Pacific Northwest and across the Great Lakes area. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across southern Manitoba with trailing boundaries across the central Dakotas and across northern Montana. Upper level pattern varies little over the next several days as high pressure resides across the central and southern Rockies.
An upper trough axis extending from the OH/TN valleys will promote west-southwesterly flow aloft across the region through tonight. At the surface, weak lee side troughing will be in place across the eastern Piedmont and western Midlands. Highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower 70s. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert Southwest.
Broad southwest flow looks to continue over the region with slightly warmer temperatures expected for this afternoon compared to yesterday. /issued 230 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ The overall synoptic pattern will change little through the end of the week, as broad cyclonic flow remains to the northwest, and upper ridging is fixed over the southeast across the Four Corners.
145 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist this afternoon with a slow moving cold front. Mainly dry weather returns for most areas Thursday under building high pressure.
Britt The upper pattern is expected to stay highly amplified over the CONUS through the weekend with a persistent high over the southern Rockies and a mean trough in the east.
10 AM temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s with light winds. The pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the work week, with a trough persisting over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and remain over the region.
This activity generated along the eastern periphery of the expansive ridge centered over the southern Rockies where isentropic upglide has been maximized. A few CAMs regenerate convection across northwest AR this afternoon and this seems reasonable given this area also lies along the periphery of the mid level ridge and some subtle forcing from a convectively generated vort max may be in play there along with ample daytime instability. Additional storms are expected to develop further west in KS along a warm front though this activity should largely dissipate before reaching the area. /Issued 406 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ An upper ridge over the southern Rockies will retrograde a bit to the west late this week into this weekend.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s. Despite widespread rain, rainfall totals remain near or below 1 inch with the highest amounts north of Highway 2 and west of Highway 61.
1045 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging on track in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered thunderstorms will continue Today ahead of a slow moving cold front. Mostly dry and seasonable weather is expected through the weekend outside of isolated thunderstorms across the southeast ridges. With weak disturbance rounding the persistent upper trough, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along and south of I-68 Thursday with drier weather to the north.
1147 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Upper level high pressure remains in place across nern NM early this morning, while plume of deeper moisture lifts northward out of AZ into UT and wrn CO. An associated cold front is anticipated to move south through plains, which should spark some thunderstorm activity.
Slight chance afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain south and east of KMUO, east of Idaho City, and in the KJER/KTWF area.
At the surface, a trough/weak cold front extends from nw KS into southeast CO. This will bring another round of widespread convection, with this round possibly a bit further west as the upper ridge retreats slightly west. At the same time, there is good model agreement in cold front sliding through the area by Fri night which will also aid to keep showers and storms around, especially over southeast KS. The front to come through Fri night will be fairly significant and will knock highs down into the low and mid 80s for Sat. After below normal temps to end the weekend, upper ridging will amplify over the Rockies for the start of the work week, which will allow the airmass to modify back to seasonal temps.
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure centered over the upper peninsula of Michigan today will migrate slightly southeastward over the upcoming day, maintaining the relatively dry air mass and subsident circulation aloft over central IL for dry conditions. Temperatures will also be slightly below normal, especially at night, when clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds will allow the lows to fall efficiently. High Thursday expected to reach the low 80s across central and southeast Illinois. High pressure should remain through the weekend with a stationary frontal zone draped from the central Plains to the lower Mississippi valley keeping associated convection closer to that zone and away from central IL.
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Currently - Lower level ridging extends across the Florida Peninsula resulting in light mainly east breezes across the Keys. Forecast - Over the next couple of days a subtle lower level inverted trough will ride westward towards Cuba and South Florida. Guidance remains in good agreement that this lower level trough will sharpen and dig increasingly northwards into Florida. This development is likely being supported by some weak support aloft in association with the upper gulf trough.
Thursday through Wednesday S/SE-ly winds at the surface will continue to advect a hot, moist air mass over our CWA and subsidence from the ridge aloft will continue to promote compressional heating over the next few days.
We will see continued influence from the upper level trough in the eastern CONUS and meanwhile an upper level ridge will dominate in the western portion of the country through the period.
An upper trough axis extending from the OH/TN valleys will promote west- southwesterly flow aloft across the region through tonight. At the surface, weak lee side troughing is in place across the eastern Piedmont and western Midlands. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s and overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert Southwest.
1120 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across the area will slowly move southeast through the day. The front will stall along the west side of the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile high pressure center will build a little further east into the western Great Lakes. Mid level troughing remains.
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected today through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
The high-res guidance continues to develop activity from along I-70 into north central Kansas. did try to trend cooler in central to south central Nebraska, but think there will be a large gradient near the front and across Nebraska.
H5 ridge centered over the Panhandle region yesterday and today could mean the hottest days of the week will be yesterday through Thursday, as the center drifts slightly west beginning tonight.
243 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep our region high and dry into Thursday night.
Tonight: Most areas should see a quiet night, albeit a bit warmer. It's possible given cooler southeast wind fetch, that any stratus develop could hamper temperatures further. Also to note is the split in model guidance with several models featuring much cooler temperatures likely due to increased moisture.
/issued 932 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ A mid and upper level trough over the central Gulf combined with high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the north central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf is supporting a light southeast to southerly wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. East-southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with seas of 2 feet or less will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control.
Lows expected to drop into the low to mid 70s towards sunrise. Flow aloft is from north to south as a ridge of high press is anchored over the rockies.
The northwest flow mid-level baroclinic zone on the eastern fringe of the mid-level ridge and warm pool will be active again tonight and likely Thursday night as well.