Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1113 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Allowed the high wind warning to expire at 5 PM.
High clouds continue to move across the area under NW flow aloft with upper high centered off the Baja Spur. This upper high will strengthen a bit today as the upper ridge amplifies over the SW CONUS.
123 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak wave of low pressure will shift NE from the Gulf of Mexico to offshore the Carolinas, proving a slight chance of light rain this afternoon through early tonight.
Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and bring gusty winds from the north.
340 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure will drift offshore late tonight and Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast on Tuesday, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast Tuesday night. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. Associated weak spin-up of a low pressure area will move NE up the SE coast overnight, remaining well offshore. Although modulated by a thickening cloud cover, the southerly return flow will support warmer temperatures than yesterday with afternoon highs ranging from mid/upper 50s across the NW Piedmont to lower/mid 60s SE. Much warmer overnight lows in the lower 40s NW to near 50 SE. A surface cold front with limited moisture will be making its way through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.
/issued 132 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/ After a quiet night an upper level trough moving across southern Canada will drag a dry cold front through the forecast area during the day Tuesday. For Thanksgiving through the weekend the weather continues to look dry with above normal temperatures developing as northwesterly flow aloft transitions to northerly flow with an upper level ridge building across the southwest United States. However late tonight, west to northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph over SE NM ahead of an approaching cold front, and result in poor recovery. 20 foot northwest winds of 15-20 mph sustained will be common ahead of the cold front, but will turn abruptly to the north and increase to 20-25 mph sustained, with gusts in some areas near 45 mph behind the front.
A cold front is expected to swing through the area on Tuesday, bringing in a cooler airmass. However, temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will fall into the low to mid 20s.
Strong low pressure will continue ewd across Ontario, Canada, then newd across Quebec, Canada. A 100-120 kt nly jet will drive the upper trough axis across srn WI this afternoon with the strong cold frontal passage this morning. High temps will occur early this morning then fall through the morning, but becoming steady in the lower to middle 30s for the afternoon. The broken stratocumulus behind the cold front over MN should also develop sewd via the upper trough being driven swd by the upper jet. Medium Some modification of low level thermal trough expected with winds swinging around to more of a west or southwest direction. Medium A weak surface/850 trough passes through then the flow reloads from the southwest as next low approaches from the northern Plains.
The surface cold front will advance through the area overnight with winds shifting and becoming northerly late tonight. Highs will be about 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today.
This will form mean longwave upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, with upper ridging in the western CONUS.
For the 24-36 forecast period, quasi zonal flow will transition to more amplified western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough set up. Due to the zonal to slightly northwest flow over the Rockies, a lee trough has become more active and intensified allowing for the stronger surface to upper level winds to set up over the region. This will help push a cold front into the area after midnight and pushing through much of the forecast areas of northeast and east central KS by sunrise.
These light winds or calm winds so far have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s in some locations, especially in northeastern Alabama and portions of southern Middle Tennessee. Some radiational cooling over the next few hours could drop the temperatures into the lower to mid 30s in some locations in Moore/Franklin counties in Tennessee or in some areas in northeastern Alabama. The above noted disturbance to our NW will result in amplification of the northern stream trough. The amplifying trough will help drive a dry cold front across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night, bringing more cold air back to the region for the mid week. More freezing temperatures are forecast Wednesday night with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Strong high pressure aloft will follow for the middle and latter portions of the week. However, have kept the PoPs on the low side. High pressure will settle into the area tomorrow and through much of the week.
Front begins to come down overnight and brings the cooler air.
127 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening. Any snow accumulation should be limited to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
1114 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 Not much change to forecast trends during the period with timing of cold front tonight the main concern. A cold front was pushing into western parts of the Dakotas at 20Z with surge of warm air out ahead of the front over the central plains. High pressure then settles over the area Tuesday night before moving off to the southeast on Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 60 41 57 / 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 59 41 54 / 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 59 41 54 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 57 38 52 / 0 10 10 10.
338 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 09z sfc map shows low pressure east of Dryden Ontario.
Over the Gulf of Mexico, the amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds and convection. Slightly warmer temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.
A snow flurry is still possible overnight over the LOW and Red Lakes region of northern MN. Pressure gradient is relaxing a bit now as cold front has pushed well east of the FA.
114 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Dry and cool high pressure over the region will move offshore tonight. Moisture will return tomorrow as weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico and brings isolated showers to the region.
These above normal temperatures are occurring ahead of an approaching cold front. expect an abrupt shift in winds towards daybreak as the aforementioned cold front makes its way across the local area.
449 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 The mean layer ridge formerly situated over the Baja Peninsula has been nudged westward by a height carving complex of Pacific short waves. The base of the mid-upper level trough reaches into the Bay of Campeche and has recently aided in the vigor of convection across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front which stalled over the Florida Keys yesterday has fractured and rebounded to the north. One piece pivoted around the western flank of the ridge and now dangles over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The meat of the mid-upper level trough will pivot to the northeast today, crossing into the Atlantic Bight tonight. At the same time, the low level gradient will erode over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula.
343 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 The upper level ridge currently parked over the West Coast will continue to amplify today. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly cooler than yesterday thanks to the cold front but, still warmer than typical November high temperatures. The warmer than normal high temperatures and continued dry environment will make for another elevated Fire Weather day.
Winds begin to shift more easterly across the eastern terminals and southwesterly across the west ahead of the next cold front. Any rain, with the next cold front, looks to hold off until later Tuesday night. A strong short wave trough will dive south-southeast through North Texas Tuesday afternoon and then to the Texas coast late Tuesday night. There will also be increasing low level convergence along the coast in advance of the next cold front that will move through the area during the overnight hours Tuesday night. The short wave trough will interact with available moisture to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the coastal plains into the coastal waters.
Kept VCSH for the lower RGV airports early tonight, but conditions should dry out after midnight with drier air moving in aloft. Tuesday will be pleasant with high temperature recover into the lower 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and light southeast to south winds. The next front will be on the way Tuesday as a Canadian air mass plunges south over the plains ahead of a large ridge over the western United States. An embedded mid level short wave trough will roll down the eastern side of the ridge and into the lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf Tuesday night, adding some vertical instability to the surface front.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ A cold front will enter northwest Iowa by 06Z this evening and push through the state by 12Z Tuesday morning. High pressure at the surface will build into the state for the rest of the day.
242 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Main weather highlights today will be a wind shift associated with a cold front, and at least elevated fire weather conditions behind the front. will amplify as a trough moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. With a clear sky and dry air, temperatures will drop to or below freezing by sunrise.
330 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Surface analysis this morning shows the high pressure ridge axis nearly bisecting AL as it remains centered over Carolina coast line. West of I 65 has observed temps already in the low 30s. Our gradual warming trend will continue today as deeper southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front, progged to pass through the region early Wednesday. Regardless of the warmer temps and slight moisture return from the south, ridging through around H7 along with a decent subsidence inversion in place will keep rain chances minimal. However, expect that feature to remain east of the CWA as the mid/upper level trough will swing through the area during the afternoon hours. Late Tuesday/early Wednesday timeframe will feature a dry cold front quickly shifting through the area, helping to reinforce some cooler than average temps.
1226 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure continues to move off to the east as a cold front moves into the central plains. The cold front will move through the state during the period resulting in a wind shift but no rain. As a result, low temps tonight will average about 5-10 degrees warmer than last night. However, the warming trend will be short-lived, as another cold front is poised to move into the area tomorrow.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large cold air trough over the Canadian Prairie and dipping down into eastern Montana and the Dakotas. Behind this a large ridge is forming off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and California. A large pacific trough also exists over Gulf of Alaska. Today through Wednesday morning: Ridge to the west will move inland and press against the cold air over eastern Montana. This compression will begin shallowing the cold air over the area today with high pressure setting up at the surface. By the evening hours, the front against the front-range will become a warm front and begin moving over eastern Montana. the strong inversion will lead to a very strong freezing rain profile.
A cold front will drop southeast towards the area by late tonight behind the departing low and moisture pooling ahead of the front may lead to areas of late night fog which is strongly suggested by MOS and SREF Guidance. but uncertainty as to how much destabilization is realized north of warm front in cloudy conditions. Cloudiness and scattered showers will likely keep high temps down north of warm front. following cooler MET/ECS MOS guidance rather than warmer MAV guidance for high temps. low pressure develops over eastern Gulf of Mexico with warm front extending eastward over ctrl FL. Isentropic lift north of warm front.
A cold front will move through the area TAF sites Tuesday morning into the afternoon shifting the winds around to the north-northwest. The main adjustment made was to sky grids to incorporate the high cloud cover moving in from the northwest. A cold front, currently over ND/MT, will slide quickly south and east over the Plains, and will sweep thru our area on Tuesday. A cold front is expected to move the area Tuesday morning/afternoon with winds shifting around to the northwest behind the front. Next dry cold front expected to slide south across the area during the day Tuesday, with little impact other that shift to north winds followed by colder temperatures for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Latter part of the forecast will remain quiet as upper ridge develops over the southwest U.
1049 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Sending out another quick update to keep the high wind warning going until 3am, due to strong wind speeds persisting. We are sending out a quick update to extend the high wind warning through 11pm. We sent a quick update to let the High Wind Warning expire for portions of Southeast Wyoming. Should see about 3-6 inches over the higher peaks later tonight into Tuesday morning before it tapers off. Much cooler east of the mtns Tuesday as the front backs up against the mtns. The front should begin to retreat back east Tuesday night as lee troughing develops over the high plains.
1041 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 We are sending out a quick update to extend the high wind warning through 11pm. We sent a quick update to let the High Wind Warning expire for portions of Southeast Wyoming. Should see about 3-6 inches over the higher peaks later tonight into Tuesday morning before it tapers off. Much cooler east of the mtns Tuesday as the front backs up against the mtns. The front should begin to retreat back east Tuesday night as lee troughing develops over the high plains.
These storms should gradually dissipate through mid-morning, when the coastal trough/low reaches the Panhandle. It will be this area of low pressure that brings the bulk of the rainfall to the region today.
The northerly winds across the Oklahoma Panhandle today will be a precursor to a cold frontal passage late tonight to early Friday morning.
213 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow over the next several days.
We may even see some sunshine with highs pushing into the lower 80s.
An upper low was slowly tracking east across Canada, brushing across northern ID and MT. Save for a few mid-level clouds over northern Co and the higher terrain, much of the forecast area remained sunny with a slight smoky haze which pushed temps into the 80s to lower 90s. Overnight min temps should remain mild with 40s for the high valleys and 50s for the plains. The same scenario will likely occur tomorrow as the upper low continues east across northern MT. For the east, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide later in the aftn, producing gusty northeast winds at the surface and ushering in cooler air overnight. However, prior to cold front passage, look for gusty west to southwest winds which will boost temps into the lower 90s.
The higher coverage looks to be east of I-65, where deeper moisture will be present.
444 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A warmer and more humid airmass will work into the region on southerly winds as low pressure in the northern Great Lakes region drapes a cold front southwest towards Texas on Friday.
Overall, rain chances should be on the downward trend as high pressure moves into the area from the east. Beginning tomorrow, conditions should get gradually better over the coastal waters as high pressure moves into the area.
Some of the short terms models have shown the possibility for heavy rainfall over southern Iowa overnight as a cold front stalls out. With this in mind and warm front draped across the area, supercells with the potential for isolated tornadoes and large hail will be possible in the afternoon and early evening.
149 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast, while a warm front passes well to the north.
KGUY and KDHT will have a more northerly wind shift after 19Z as a cold front starts to work slowly southward. Decent instability returns to the area on Friday along with the passage of a cold front that morning.
424 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper ridge extending up from Northern Mexico across the area today and Friday will result if hot temperatures for the region. The ridge axis along the West Coast will be displaced east as an upper trough moves ashore and pushes east. However high pressure will remain over the region. Ahead of the trough a moist south wind expected but behind it a west/southwest downslope wind will result in much warmer and drier conditions.
Latest 00z models have an upper ridge sliding across the northwestern U.
A disturbance on the backside of the trough continues to move through the Northern Rockies this morning. A ridge of high pressure quickly pulses over the region on Friday causing temperatures to climb to slightly above normal readings with fairly dry conditions.
A series of weak troughs will affect areas to our north, but will act to keep 500mb heights near 590-592dm over our region at least through the weekend.
156 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will slip east this evening, allowing a warmer and more humid airmass to work into the region. A cold front will sag down toward the area through the day on Friday.
137 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast early this morning will move further into the western Atlantic today.
104 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow over the next several days.
224 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 One last dry day in the forecast ended yesterday, and a series of troughs will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through most of the forecast. On Friday, another trough will move eastward from the Plains, and bring additional precip chances to the area.
Most of the low clouds wl be confined to central/south AR, where MVFR CIGS wl be noted.
Today will also be the coolest with 70-80 in the lower valleys and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Warmer weather is still coming our way.
As we head into the weekend, an upper level ridge spread across the eastern Gulf and into the Atlantic will stream moisture into the region and a trough swinging into the Great Lakes will send a series of disturbances through.
/Issued 902 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ Water vapor imagery is showing drier air moving into the region (eventually), with upper trough axis just off the coast.
Meanwhile, broad mid and upper level ridging is in place across Florida and the adjacent bodies of waters. Forecast - High pressure spreading into the Atlantic today will gradually consolidate into a broad Atlantic high with a ridge axis extending into the southeastern United States. Meanwhile, much drier mid level air will ride in on the southern flank of the mid level ridge.
212 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A gradual moistening trend will continue today through Friday night ahead of a cold front. The highest rain chances will be Friday night as the cold front reaches southeast MO and southern IL.
The wind may decrease some during the mid to late afternoon across northwest Oklahoma, as a cold front approaches. During the evening and especially the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop as a cold front approaches parts of northern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary from late Thursday/early Friday convection may complicate things, but at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along a cold front by late Friday afternoon.
225 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with a trough stretching across the northwestern states. Cool air associated with the trough will keep highs today in the 70s. Lingering moisture/instability may support a few more showers/storms on Friday before the trough exits the region. One more day of highs in the 70s is expected before much warmer weather returns with a large upper level ridge.
THURSDAY: This will be a transitional day, as we lose the influence of the weak front currently across North Central Florida as high pressure begins to build in from the east. The axis of the western Atlantic ridge, both at the surface and aloft, will extend across the Florida peninsula bringing prevailing easterly flow. Warm and muggy temperatures will continue with highs in the lower 90s, leading to afternoon heat indices around 100F.
405 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A calm morning is ongoing around the Mid-South currently, with temperatures in the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. Latest surface analysis depicts an anticyclone centered off the coast of North Carolina, resulting in southerly surface flow around the local area.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the daytime heating this afternoon/evening, with the highest probabilities across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. High temperatures today will hold in the lower 80s across the south with more cloud cover and rise into the mid to upper 80s further north where more sunshine will be seen.
453 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with a trough stretching across the northwestern states. Cool air associated with the trough will keep highs today in the 70s. Lingering moisture/instability may support a few more showers/storms on Friday before the trough exits the region. One more day of highs in the 70s is expected before much warmer weather returns with a large upper level ridge.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the daytime heating this afternoon/evening, with the highest probabilities across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. High temperatures today will be fairly uniform across the area; near 80 everywhere expect the higher elevations.
427 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow over the next several days.
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Today and Tonight: Some showers have developed overnight in response to an upper-level trough of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. The highest POPs and likely highest rainfall accumulations through today and tonight will be found along and south of the trough's center - or across southeast Mississippi.
345 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 H5 analysis tonight had a fairly zonal pattern across the lower 48 with a fairly active northern stream.
The lower coverage of QPF of the GFS is why didn't go to 100 yet. Model outputs for this weekend show the Bermuda ridge extending across the GOM and northern Gulf coast with a northern stream trough racing across the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley.
641 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A warmer and more humid airmass will work into the region on southerly winds as low pressure in the northern Great Lakes region drapes a cold front southwest towards Texas on Friday.
favorable shear profiles and the high level of instability will increase severe potential north and east of the low, particularly across portions of central Kansas where conditions will most primed. High temperatures will once again push well up into the 90s(F) this afternoon with little change to the air mass across the high plains.
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Persistent upper low centered over srn LA continues to generate convection along the TX/LA Gulf coast this morning. Overall flow over the CONUS is zonal, with a developing trof over the Rockies attm. Trof over the Rockies to eject into the Plains Friday, and weaknesses aloft will interact with the sea breeze to bring additional, mainly diurnal convection to the region again.
130 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Dry conditions overnight will be short lived as a warm front approaches from the southwest bringing rain chances back to the forecast thursday.