Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a fairly deep trof over se Canada into the ne CONUS. The Upper Great Lakes are under confluent nw flow between the trof and flow that is undercutting a ridge centered over Saskatchewan. Favored the low side of guidance for min temps. Traditional cold spots should tumble to the low/mid 40s. For now, will maintain a dry fcst given the low probability of development.
Mid evening temperatures so far have cooled into the mid 70s to mid 80s (mostly in the lower 80s) with a north to northeast winds 5-10 mph. A stationary frontal boundary was draped south of the region, pushed southward by weak high pressure sliding eastward across the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal boundary just south of the region should move northward as a warm front during Sunday afternoon.
438 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A warm front will lift north into the area.
Surface analysis this morning shows extensive high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, extending back westward as far as the eastern Dakotas. Aloft, the flow is solidly northwestward, originating from a ridge axis over the western Dakotas.
Upper level ridging remains across the Southeast, keeping the more active storm track to our north, through the Ohio River Valley. Slightly more cloud cover this afternoon will keep temps a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, but still expect highs in the mid 90s.
A few thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon across mainly the higher terrain of Clark, Lincoln, and northern Mohave Counties as some lingering moisture and instability remain in place.
A fairly light south to southwest flow will continue tonight and into Sunday with the Atlantic ridge axis over the peninsula. Expect a pretty quiet night with lows in the mid 70s across the interior to around 80 or even the lower 80s closer to the coast. High pressure will remain across the peninsula for the next several days, with a light south to southwest flow and the afternoon sea breeze along the coast each day.
Dry westerly flow aloft Sunday with an upper low moving into BC. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures several degrees cooler than today.
Forcing was virtually nil, as all the low to mid level WAA, jet dynamics and DPVA were well to our west and south with two separate areas of low pressure. One of the areas of low pressure will work into the Ohio river valley, while the other lifts into srn Manitoba, both well away from nrn Michigan.
Storms are expected to redevelop after 11 am, initially over the higher terrain before drifting over valley locations in the early afternoon and evening as outflow boundaries interact and generate new storms like what happened yesterday.
Dewpoints range from the lower 60s on the cooler side of the boundary in Paris to the mid 70s in Clarksdale. Expect highs in the lower 90s north to mid 90s south with heat index values in the low 100s across at least the Delta region. A weak mid level trough will approach the region with showers and thunderstorms concentrated mainly to the NW of the Mid-South.
217 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 ne pac upper trough will continue to support several impulses into the region in the period, supporting sct-isold shra/ts. Hires models suggest convection will fire in the northern/central hills early this afternoon slowly pushing ese onto the plains, with other shra/ts developing along the slow moving trough.
Late evening surface map shows the main area of low pressure over south central KS/OK with an inverted trough extending into southern Iowa. HRRR confines most of the lower cloud over the south and into Nebraska through 00z.
120 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler temperatures to the start of the weekend will begin to move out of the area, allowing fair weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend.
129 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure centered over the area this evening will move off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures today will push into the low to mid 90s across the area with heat index readings into the triple digits, generally around 105. Rain chances remain very low, less than 10 percent today with just a very stray shower possible as high pressure continues to be in control of the weather pattern in our area. Large Atlantic ridge extending into the north Gulf will maintain light south to southwest flow across the coastal waters for much of the week.
Fairly quiet summer weather is on tap for the remainder of the weekend as a low pressure aloft gradually sinks southward into the PacNW. This upper level low will help to send a surface dry cold front through southern Oregon.
646 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the area from southern NC into the Upstate of SC. A flat upper level ridge will extend from the western Atlantic across the Gulf of Mexico to Southern Texas. We used the higher maximum temperature given recent temperature verification and H850 temps of +20C to +21C.
With the exception of temporary LIFR ceilings at BPK, weak high pressure will dominate tonight with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Thermal ridge axis will be over the fa for a warm day.
Low pressure pressure near the Oklahoma panhandle will track east across the central and southern plains tonight.
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure controls our weather.
This will keep temperatures cooler than normal with highs in the 70s expected across the area. Set up between broad troughing moving through the Midwest and a hint of ridging over the Rockies, models currently not showing much of the way of forcing moving through the area, so the forecast remains dry through the evening/overnight hours.
256 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Upper trough over eastern Canada/northeast CONUS will shift to the east and northeast as two centers wobble around each other.
534 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure controls our weather.
1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Widespread light to moderate rain continues through the afternoon and evening hours as strong isentropic lift ahead of the incoming mid level trough. This focus for low level ascent remaining so far south with a good low level jet around 30 to 40 kts transporting plenty of moisture north and over the cooler air should help keep widespread rain with some embedded thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the area from southern NC into the Upstate of SC. A flat upper level ridge will extend from the western Atlantic across the Gulf of Mexico to Southern Texas. We used the higher maximum temperature given recent temperature verification and H850 temps of +20C to +21C.
High pressure was situated near Manitowoc, WI and was a bit stronger and farther west than the models indicated. Afternoon highs should range from the lower to mid 70s along Highway 20 to the cool mid 60s in se IA, westcental IL and northeast MO (due to thicker clouds and some rain).
As this wave moves eastward this morning, the low-level jet is progged to gradually veer to southwesterly, which should shift the heaviest rainfall over far southeast Kansas by daybreak, before pushing east of there by late morning. Widespread convective outflow and considerable cloudiness should lead to a cooler than normal early July day today. Given skies clear out tonight behind the front, areas of radiation fog may develop underneath the low-level ridge axis with light winds/clear skies across central and south-central Kansas.
Lower rain chances are forecast than the last several days due to high pressure building into the region, with rain chances in the 20-50% range, lowest across the northwestern half of southeast Georgia. It will be seasonably hot, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Large area of high pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes region late this evening.
Another slight warm up is expected today, and up to 10F warmer over the southwest third of the forecast area where 850MB temps rise from around 11C late Saturday afternoon to near 18C by the end of the day.
The main wx features today include a low pressure system moving from the plains into Missouri, and a warm front that will develop eastward from the low, extending across the Ohio Valley. Highs today will be mainly in the lower 90s, with upper 80s Plateau.
This will keep temperatures on the lower side again Sunday.
Have continued slight chance pops across the area through this evening as diurnal heating and orographic lift combine with a weak trough over the region to trigger convection. By Sunday, somewhat better storm chances are expected, particularly across far north Georgia (chance pops) as the broad upper trough looses its influence over the region and ample mid-level moisture settles into the Tennessee Valley and the north Georgia counties.
554 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great lakes will move off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon.
A warm front is present across this area along with a zone of differential heating. Despite low level moisture convergence across this area, the presence of short wave ridging has held down convective initiation. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms can also be expected across the remainder of southern Missouri into this evening along that warm front and as that upper level short wave begins to approach. As we head into late this evening and the overnight period, that low level jet will continue to strengthen with convection increasing in areal coverage north of that warm front across central and especially northern Missouri. If current trends hold (and models have been fairly consistent), we may eventually be looking at heat headlines as high temperatures return into the lower to middle 90s with dew points in the lower 70s.
322 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Another hot and humid day is expected across the ArkLaMiss today as a 594dam ridge across the northern Gulf and a 1017mb ridge along the Gulf coast continue to dominate and combine with a moist air mass. Surface dew points were being observed early this morning in the lower 70s. Although an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out again this afternoon, chances are expected to be less due to slightly stronger ridging over the region and wl not carry mention of rain today in the forecast.
Do not expect any fog in Chadron due to winds out of the south providing some localized downslope to the north of the Pine Ridge. Warming trend will continue today with all models showing a ridge axis moving into the forecast area during the day. Showers and isolated thunder will develop across the higher mountains.
Very dry air in the lower levels across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa will continue to advect westward on an east wind, helping to keep the stratus in place. A few 80s will be possible in central South Dakota towards the highway 14 corridor where slightly warmer low level temperatures exist. In addition to the warmer temperatures, increasing low level moisture will bring afternoon dew points up into the lower to mid 60s, making it a little more humid than recent days.
With the cooler temps across the Nebraska Panhandle, that area with remain rather capped through the afternoon, with little storm development.
Looks like chances for convection may be slightly higher tonight as moisture continues its slow increase and shallow upper trough to our west draws closer.
Did keep eastern zones cooler with expected persistent cloud cover today.
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Warm front brings chances of sprinkles or light showers today.
Due to a steady, albeit light to gentle southeast wind, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, A Western Atlantic ridge has become better defined across South Central Florida, with east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots on our marine district.
402 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen and bring above normal temperatures back to the area for the next several days.
A couple of low pressure systems will move through southern Canada, but the majority of clouds and precipitation will remain north of the border. Cooler and more pleasant temperatures will be present with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Though temps in the lower Hells Canyon in western Idaho will hover near 90.
Specifically, latest surface analysis depicts a boundary drifting southeast from near GCK back into southeast CO while a more diffuse boundary, likely the warm front, extends east-southeast from GCK toward P28.
435 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure controls our weather.
Upper closed low moving into British Columbia. Closed low over hudson Bay with trough into the northeast CONUS. Toyed with introducing isoT across the far NW in the afternoon with proximity to the trough and increased instability, but maintained a dry forecast as any thunderstorm development should remain in the western panhandle through 00z.
By late evening it looks like most, if not all of the convection should end as the upr wave moves out of the area and an upr ridge builds ovr the state.
Surface and upper level ridging will continue to dominate the area through tonight. The combination of the upper ridge and a dry mid-level airmass will result in continued hot and dry weather.
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pattern shift begins today where we'll see the semi stationary front along the front range move out on the high plains. An increasing zonal pattern will focus a better chance for precip across the Dakotas and warmer temperatures return.
333 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great lakes will move off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon.
Associated weak cold front will sag south to near our northwestern border counties by this evening. Surface dewpoints this afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s across the eastern part of our area, but should drop into the lower 60s across our far western counties as the low- level flow veers somewhat toward the southwest.
A shallow mid-level trough moves the Rockies into the Cntrl Plains states tonight, and that will result in a tighter surface pressure gradient and higher daytime surface winds Sunday. Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad ridge over the middle of the country with a weak trough over the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southeast. The upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the central plains, but should stay far enough north to allow our weather to remain dry. There is a slight chance for some thunderstorms to slip into Val Verde County from the higher terrain in Mexico.
Today a weak cold front will push from west to east.
Upper trough over eastern Canada/northeast CONUS will shift to the east and northeast as two centers wobble around each other.
A cold front that was in Phillips and Petroleum Counties at 08z will move to the North Dakota border by mid morning.
Synoptically a weak upper level trof will slowly progress to the east by the middle of the week followed by a more substantial low that will dive down to Northern California over the weekend. Weak upper level trough remains over the region tonight and Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure centered 700 miles west of point arena will drift slowly northward.
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 The upper trough moving through Kansas and front slowly moving into northern Oklahoma this morning will help maintain rain and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma through mid-day. Some development southward into central Oklahoma is also expected given the low-level jet.
404 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 A warmer night is in store for eastern Utah and western Colorado with increasing mid and high level moisture bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions back into the area. However, impacts from wind driven snow will be felt, especially over the higher passes with gust potential to 50 mph or better.
The cold front and accompanying band of precipitation has moved south of Boise and is moving through Twin Falls/Jerome. Roads may become slick as temps fall below freezing. Cold front continues to shift south and was roughly along a KREO-KMUO-KSUN line at 03Z and expected to be along the ID/NV border by 12Z. North of the cold front will see decreasing clouds and possible valley fog in sheltered valleys Monday morning. Surface winds westerly 5-15 knots with gusts of 20-30 knots along and south of the cold front.
942 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Continued VFR with some high clouds early as upper low steers by to the south. Upper low will slowly pass by well south of the area - high clouds spreading over tonight and at least early Monday are associated with this upper low. /issued 241 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ After a couple of raw and damp days it took a northerly wind shift and weak surface ridging to provide a warm up. Broadening our view, the upper low that has been traversing northwest Mexico the past couple of days is finally moving eastward.
831 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight.
Upper low will slowly pass by well south of the area - high clouds spreading over tonight and at least early Monday are associated with this upper low. /issued 241 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ After a couple of raw and damp days it took a northerly wind shift and weak surface ridging to provide a warm up. Broadening our view, the upper low that has been traversing northwest Mexico the past couple of days is finally moving eastward.
406 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Clearing trend will continue this evening but will reverse course later tonight, as clouds begin to spread back north in advance of the ejecting upper low from Baja. Cloudiness will continue to increase Monday, and rain will spread into southeast Oklahoma by late morning or early afternoon as the upper low begins its trek across Texas towards the Arklatex.
Another short wave trough was over far southern MAN. Light snow will end this afternoon and early evening with winds turning to the south overnight in response to developing low pressure across western ND. During the day tomorrow a leading short wave on the long wave pattern changing 500mb trough will propagate along the international border increasing in strength with time.
Rain will spread east into southeast Georgia after midnight along a broad warm front that has stalled near the Altamaha river basin. A warm front will remain nearly stationary just north of the area waters tonight.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep dry conditions over the area tonight through Monday afternoon.
An active weather period is expected monday with the low deepening upon approach from the west gulf into central Louisiana, placing much of the CWA in the warm sector of sorts, though stable marine layer influences may maintain mostly elevated convection above a stable inversion layer for quite some time.
As for Monday, temperatures will be in the 50s due to warm air moving across the region before a cold frontal passage. Current guidance has this cold front moving over the region during the mid to late afternoon hours.
This trof will effectively carve out the longwave trof that will deliver the arctic cold. the fcst area will remain in return flow and strong WAA ahead of the first strong cold front. The flow will become increasingly cyclonic until this trof moves thru KS Wed afternoon/ eve. and Fri it will turn anticyclonic until a low-amplitude ridge is fcst to move thru Fri night. but the first cold front will be along the OK/KS border by dawn Wed. This will overwhelm the low and force it S away from the forcing aloft. The last 5 runs of the EC ensemble mean have averaged 2-4" along and S of Hwy 136 with the highest amts over Nrn KS.
Over locations where the temperatures are not forecast to fall below freezing, northern and central parts of Oklahoma where we have fog mentioned, we included freezing fog. You typically need visibilities much lower than we are forecasting, less than 1 mile, to begin to see any bridge issues and/or riming.
926 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure moves offshore overnight as a weak frontal system moves in for Monday morning.
Mid/upper level transitory ridge will continue to slide across central ND this afternoon then exit to our east this evening. Both the NAM/GFS QG fields advertise poor alignment between the lower level frontogenetical forcing field and the mid/upper level divergence field.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 54 51 60 / 40 60 100 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 54 47 58 / 60 40 100 70 Oak Ridge, TN 42 53 47 58 / 60 40 100 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 53 44 54 / 60 20 100 80 TN.
515 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Warmer air has started to spread back into the area this afternoon on the backside of the upper trough now moving into the mid Mississippi Valley. The warmer temperatures and full sunshine today has eroded a good part of the snow field located over parts of southeast Nebraska from yesterdays event.
A weak cold front moving across the region will maintain a chance for showers moving across the region through this evening. A weak cold front moving across the region will maintain a chance for rain showers moving across the area through this evening.
701 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Weak upper trough crosses this afternoon and tonight.
In addition, as temps drop below freezing in areas of dense fog, freezing fog could create a few slick spots on bridges, especially over bodies of water. /Issued 406 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ Clearing trend will continue this evening but will reverse course later tonight, as clouds begin to spread back north in advance of the ejecting upper low from Baja. Cloudiness will continue to increase Monday, and rain will spread into southeast Oklahoma by late morning or early afternoon as the upper low begins its trek across Texas towards the Arklatex.
A weak surface trof of low pressure will move across KGUY and KDHT during the mid to late afternoon hours on Monday with winds becoming north-northwest to north. One final warm day expected on Monday with highs mainly in the lower- to mid-60s.
558 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight.
541 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Subtle upper ridge of high pressure will move rapidly eastward across the forecast area tonight. Despite the very mild temperatures this afternoon, trended toward the cooler bias corrected readings this evening before modifying the temperatures after midnight. On Monday, upper trough will advance into to the Dakotas. A surface wind shift to a brisk northwesterly direction will occur with this trough and will begin to usher in cooler air across our western zones by early to mid afternoon.
A cold front will enter northern Utah late tonight, then sweep south into central Utah during the day Monday.
Shift in the mid/upper level pattern begins as low pressure develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and provides a deepening south flow over the Peninsula. Despite the impressive moistening, mid/upper level ridge appears to hold tight through much of the day, suggesting that despite an uptick in shower chances in the afternoon, thunder chances should remain quite low. A warm and noticeably more humid afternoon on tap with temperatures topping out in the low 80s most areas. Assistance will come from a dampening upper trough transitioning toward the Mid-Atlantic states.
Temperatures are near freezing, so the drizzle could put a very light coating of glaze on any untreated surfaces.
The deep mid-to-upper level trough over Mexico that helped cause our persistent rainfall pattern over the past 36-48 hours is finally beginning to eject to the northeast towards Big Bend. Although we are having a relative lull in the action with only scattered light showers over most of the region now, IR satellite imagery shows convective activity is increasing over southwestern Coahuila in response to PVA and height falls ahead of the trough.