Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS BEYOND 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS BROADENING OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR REGION.
457 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THE DIFFERENCES YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH A MORE OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO A CLOSED LOW ARE SEEN IN THE OBSERVATIONS. LESS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION (SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AS OF THIS WRITING) AND LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT ECHOS ON RADAR. BRB THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTING OUR AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER. SEVERAL WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT WIND DIRECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD AS WEAK SURFACE TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WEST OF THE AREA. WITH 30S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
311 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE SYSTEM THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE CWA HAS CLEARED THE AREA LEAVING ONLY A SMALL SECTION NEAR GOVE. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT A LITTLE COLD ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THAT AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MAINLY A TOUCH WARMER. SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE TIMING CRITICAL FOR HOW WARM IT GETS. MAINLY A LITTLE WARMER.
224 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR BIRMINGHAM AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. DEWPOINT TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALABAMA WERE IN THE LOWER 60S. TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TRENDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL FALL ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT CIRRUS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND GUSTY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS.
355 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA/HOUSTON METRO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S UP NORTH TO AROUND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
Gradient will continue to strengthen over the area into the early morning hours before the low shifts further eastward. The exception will be the highest terrain of NW AR and far SE OK where conditions are already supportive of a sleet and snow mix per public reports. will allow accumulations in the highest elevations.
There is the potential that the precipitation will transition to snow at the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma late Tonight into Wednesday morning. Could see an inch of snow accumulation in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas. Will not issue any kind of headline at this time with uncertainties still remaining with concerns to the temperatures at the lowest levels.
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR BIRMINGHAM SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. AS A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW PUSHES FROM WESTERN MS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TN THIS EVENING. A SECOND WARM FRONT IS HINTED AT BY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS MOVING INTO NW AL EARLY IN THE EVENING AND EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. N/NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 02Z TO 09Z TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY QUIET SHORT TERM CONTINUES WITH RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U. WE STILL HAVE ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE WRN EDGE OF THIS HITS THE NRN PORTIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW HYR MTN FLURRIES.
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR BIRMINGHAM SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. AS A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW PUSHES FROM WESTERN MS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TN THIS EVENING. A SECOND WARM FRONT IS HINTED AT BY MOST MESOSCALE MODELS MOVING INTO NW AL EARLY IN THE EVENING AND EAST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRI WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NERN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO ON SUN WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.
235 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT LOCATION SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S SO A FREEZING MIST THREAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE READINGS ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PREVIOUS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE HAVING DRIED THE LOWER LEVELS. A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY CLIPPER WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE AND AIM FOR THE CENTER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STG COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT FROST THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSED THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AROUND 25 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S MOUNTAINS/CAMAS PRAIRIE TO AROUND 50 WARMER VALLEYS.
1234 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. WL ENSURE A DRY AND WARM DAY OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AREAS. JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WILL DEEPEN THE MS VALLEY LOW. MOST RECENT TEMP GUIDANCE RMNS WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR NERN ZONES AND GARRETT COUNTY.
251 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 DEEP UPPER LOW MAKING A QUICKER PASSAGE ACROSS EAST TX. STG COLD FRONT WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND WAS MOVG SOUTH OF I-20 IN NE TX. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO REMAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY WKND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S DURING THE INTERIM.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONCERN FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OVER FAR WRN MD AND ERN WV AS TEMPS DROP SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. 23/00Z HI-RES PARALLEL ECMWF SHOWS TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FROM WRN ALLEGANY DOWN TO PENDLETON WV WHILE LATEST GFS KEEPS TEMPS ABV FREEZING ALL NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ALSO TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER ELEVS. DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS SPREADING BACK AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE OVR THE TN VALLEY.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S NEARLY AREA-WIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER TEENS OVER CENTRAL MN.
LOW PRESSURE (1004 MB) IS TAKING SHAPE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WHILE A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND PRECIP FOR THE SUN TIME FRAME IS RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE.
We will start to see lift become maximized as the mid level closed upper low passes just south and east of the area tonight. Looks like relatively warm temperatures will keep precip rain through the evening hours with a gradual transition to snow, first in the higher elevation terrain of the Ozarks, then over most of the area as lift/dynamic cooling look to just tip the scale over to snow.
207 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TO END ALL SNOW AND CLEAR THE SKIES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL CREATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
S/WV RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REMOVED FREEZING RAIN AS TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS DO NOT FAVOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. FAST MOVING COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER.
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT WINDS TENDING FROM THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 AM CST. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. LIGHT EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO COMBINE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS TO RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
349 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
1214 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER INTERNATIONAL FALLS WITH COLD FRONT AND SNOW BAND WITH FRONT NOW JUST CLEARED THE FCST AREA. RIGHT NEAR LOW PRESSURE PATH HAD NARROW ZONE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU THROUGH WARROAD AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ND WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF WAVE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN BC.
OVERALL ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT. FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW OUT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE SYSTEM UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE.
/ISSUED 246 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ LIGHT PRECIP SETTING UP ABOUT AS EXPECTED IN A GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM NERN NEW MEXICO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ALONG THAT SAME ORIENTATION. BY 15Z THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE APPROACHING DFW WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. BY 18Z THE THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE CLOSED AND MOVED INTO NW TEXAS EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST WILL RUN TOWARD THE HIGHER END WITH A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH. NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THANKS TO AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
233 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A cold front pushed through the region early this morning while a strong upper trough swings through the Plains. Rain chances will continue to decrease as we head toward the evening hours as the upper trough shifts east. The theme of winter-like temperatures will continue tonight as overnight lows drop to near or below freezing in most locations. The upper trough will exit to the east by tomorrow as weak upper ridging builds over the western ConUS.
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH TX. INCREASED LIFT ACCOMPANYING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW AND AT TIMES FAIRLY SCATTERED BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL OFF TO THE W/NW. TEMPS WHERE PRECIP IS FALLING HAS REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING. FAR NRN PORTIONS /PRECIP IS DONE/ HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT COMING AFTER SUNRISE.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A strong upper level low in Northeast Texas was moving east this afternoon. No snowfall is expected through the evening hours as temperatures remain above well freezing. Also, colder temperatures along the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau could come into play.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE U. SHIFTS NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NNE IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORT STREAMER CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA.
Winds will not completely decouple, however, as a strong gradient will still exist behind the cold front. A few lingering light wraparound showers are possible in eastern sections of the Big Country early in the evening, as the upper low in Northeast Texas moves northeast. Clouds will otherwise dissipate from southwest to northeast through midnight with subsidence behind the exiting upper low. With clearing skies, temperatures will fall into the lower and mid 30s by early morning. A few western areas, along and west of Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line may briefly fall to freezing. The downslope westerly component, along with full sun, will allow temperatures to rebound to highs in the lower 60s over much of West Central Texas. Dry and warmer weather is anticipated for the remainder of the work-week, likely persisting through the weekend.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE LOW- ELEVATION CAVEAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL. HOWEVER I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT WINDS WILL BE AS WEAK AS THE NAM ADVERTISES GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE. STILL THINK THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE DELTA REGIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S IN MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S.
Anticipating strong north wind gusts, especially along many of the east-west oriented ridgetops in Ozarks and Ouachitas. There is the potential that the precipitation will transition to snow at the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma late Tonight into Wednesday morning. Could see an inch of snow accumulation in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas. Will not issue any kind of headline at this time with uncertainties still remaining with concerns to the temperatures at the lowest levels.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF ENDING FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEANING TOWARD THE WEST. WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WARMER AIR OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MODEL QPF ARE POSITIONED UNDER THIS DOME OF WARMER AIR. WILL STILL INDICATE FREEZING RAIN UP TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL TAKE MOST OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH IT.
327 AM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RECORD HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY.
317 AM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
415 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST IN A LIMITED-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
800 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 UPDATE SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES.
615 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 PRIMARILY MVFR DECKS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTERN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND A LATE NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A 700MB COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP ENDING GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE STRADDLING THE CWA WILL PUSH NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN.
/ISSUED 420 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TREND OF THE PRESENT CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS DRAPED FROM NEAR NORTHEAST ATLANTA METRO EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN SLOPES DOWN TO ATHENS AND WASHINGTON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ONLY WINTRY PTYPE EXPECTED WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE WEDGE. RESULTANT TEMPS /LEANING HEAVILY ON THE BETTER RESOLVING LOCAL WRF/ AND FCST QPF THROUGH MIDDAY GENERATED UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL ICE ACCRETION AND SOME LIGHTER AMOUNTS JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SO DECIDED TO EXPAND A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS COULD INCLUDES THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND EASTWARD THROUGH ATHENS AND WASHINGTON.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND NEAR CALM WINDS BUT READINGS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW BECOMES NEARLY CALM UNDER WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS FORCING/MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN HAS STRUGGLED TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE IS A LITTLE CAPE IN THE LOW LEVELS. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TRACK THROUGH ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL ALSO HELP CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT SHORT DURATION OF SNOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONT.
/ISSUED 415 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST IN A LIMITED-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES ARE PRODUCING LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MODELS INSIST ON TROUGH LIFTING NWD WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING UP GRADUALLY. BUT HAVE TRIMMED A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE W AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLD TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE VARIABLE NEAR THE COAST N OF ABOUT JAX BEACH OWING TO TROUGHING.
Temperatures across the eastern Ozarks are below the freezing mark and some freezing fog and slick spots have developed. Temperatures across far southwestern Missouri are in the low to mid 30s. Some low lying areas could be slighting cooler and below freezing with freezing fog possible, along with some slick spots. An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the central Plains early this morning. The trough will track east across the area this morning.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF OROGAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW IN THE HIGHER MTNS. THUS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL STAY IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF TIME ALTHOUGH THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTN OR EVENING. HOWEVER WILL NOT COMPLETELY DROP THE HIGH WIND WATCH EITHER AND WILL DELAY IT A FEW HOURS AS BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AT RIDGE TOPS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO NEAR BISMARCK AND SOUTH. LARGE AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVED WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS WARM AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST TO CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY. THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
79 /ISSUED 621 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX /PARIS/ TO KINJ /HILLSBORO/ TO KMKN /HAMILTON/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH A DRY COLD FRONT JUST AFTER THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH NIGHT TIME VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.