Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mild underlying thermal profile still projects to arrive solidly above average this afternoon, but with readings perhaps a shade cooler than those noted yesterday.
The coastal low off Daytona Beach is gradually shearing our and the gradient north of the low relaxing bringing an end of this northeaster event on Tuesday. The lower St Johns River continues to be running a bit high with the trapped tide all the way down to the Lake George area, but no major issues from this event.
243 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Upper trough was dropping into the northern Rockies and this will develop upslope gradients for a precipitation event for the mountains and foothills.
118 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
1125 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Satellite imagery is highlighting an eastward moving upper level trough, which will be brining light precipitation to the region, and a few inches of snow to the area mountains. Forecast is on track, though did add patchy fog to the Plains where a lack of cloud cover may lead to fog development before the trough moves far enough east to limit its development. Thankfully, this storm will miss us completely with maybe a few flurries across the far southern Nebraska Panhandle and maybe the higher mountains this afternoon and into this evening.
/Issued 844 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021/ Impressive 60 to 70 knot low level jet continues to spread into eastern Oklahoma this evening ahead of potent upper low moving through the Texas Panhandle. As the main upper low approaches overnight, steepening mid level lapse rates/cold temperatures aloft will support the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms to redevelop after midnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
Overnight lows will again range from the lower to middle 40s over southeast Kansas, to the lower 50s over far south central Missouri.
924 PM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Satellite imagery is highlighting an eastward moving upper level trough, which will be brining light precipitation to the region, and a few inches of snow to the area mountains. Forecast is on track, though did add patchy fog to the Plains where a lack of cloud cover may lead to fog development before the trough moves far enough east to limit its development. Thankfully, this storm will miss us completely with maybe a few flurries across the far southern Nebraska Panhandle and maybe the higher mountains this afternoon and into this evening.
411 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
1152 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Upper low currently spinning over NM, will slowly move east- northeast over the next 24 hours across most of ern KS. Copious amounts of low level moisture transport ahead of the low, will lead to widespread showers and even a few embedded thunderstorms lifting north across the area throughout much of the day into tonight. As the upper low spins across eastern KS Tue, some of the Hi-rez CAM solutions actually wrap some 500-1000 j/kg of instability into extreme SE KS and eventually SW MO and wrn MO by Tue afternoon. Both the medium range models both have some sort of agreement on the how end of the weekend will play out, as a ridge develops over the Rockies, with most of the plains shifting to more of a dry NW flow pattern.
1236 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
A surface warm front will lift northward through the region, bringing increasing moisture back into the picture.
541 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Cold front has moved into North Dakota with weak high pressure to the north. Low cloud developing on the edge of the high pressure just north of the border, but is not expected to slide too far south today. Cooler temperatures anticipated today as well as some gusty winds with cold air advection behind the frontal passage. The remainder of the week will feature a long wave trof over much of the CONUS with ridge over the eastern Pacific. Some breakdown of this pattern is possible by the weekend with the Pacific ridge pushing onshore.
Also extended the low clouds and low visibilities over Bozeman airport through 930am MDT this morning.
953 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 The line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that had stalled across southwest Louisiana earlier this morning dropping four to six inches of rain is once again progressing eastward at a decent clip. Skies to remain cloudy as temperatures fall back into the lower 60s.
The upper trough that brought showers to the area yesterday has moved south and a dry northerly flow is now setting up.
While parts of the higher elevations could see up to around 9 inches of accumulation, most of the high country will see 6 inches or less.
Cold and breezy conditions, along with some snow showers, continue today before drier and warmer conditions return briefly tomorrow.
Skies to remain cloudy as temperatures fall back into the lower 60s.
1020 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Temperatures are rising into the lower 70s this morning across the Florida Keys, a few degrees higher than this same time yesterday. From synopsis: A broad area of low pressure offshore from the coastal Carolinas will slowly move northeastward and further into the western North Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, a large continental area of high pressure will build southeastward over the next couple of days.
This activity is ahead of a cold front which is currently over central Oklahoma and extends south into south central Texas. This cold front will move east today across Arkansas approaching the Mississippi River by early this evening. The cold front is expected to stall out close to the Mississippi River tonight with some scattered showers expected across eastern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
TFJ Cold front has moved into North Dakota with weak high pressure to the north. Low cloud developing on the edge of the high pressure just north of the border, but is not expected to slide too far south today. Cooler temperatures anticipated today as well as some gusty winds with cold air advection behind the frontal passage. The remainder of the week will feature a long wave trof over much of the CONUS with ridge over the eastern Pacific. Some breakdown of this pattern is possible by the weekend with the Pacific ridge pushing onshore.
1028 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure will slowly move farther out into the Atlantic through midweek. A weak low pressure approaches from the south Wednesday.
High pressure will remain over the area through today.
A trough moving through the Great Basin will lead to a chance of light precipitation, primarily for the higher elevations of the Sierra, and the Tehachapi mountains areas. A few showers moving over the Sierra Nevada as a trough moves SE through the Great Basin. Model progs indicate the higher potential for precipitation today is towards the the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains due to a strong NW upslope flow. Winds should diminish this morning as the trough moves into the Mojave desert and wind direction turns more northerly.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon along a warm frontal boundary, with the potential for a a few strong To severe storms developing after noon from near the KC metro into central Missouri, lifting north through the afternoon toward the MO/IA border by sunset. The influence of the wrapped up 500mb trough over the southern plains is well evident on regional radar mosaic. In response, ample mid 50s dew points advecting into the region will support MUCAPE values around 500 to 700 J/KG within the warm sector ahead of a warm frontal boundary lifting into the lower Missouri River valley between 1 and 3 PM. with only some lingering precipitation near the low center as it lifts northeast through midnight.
643 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
/issued 414 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ The area of low pressure just offshore of the SE US coast will continue to lift out to the NE today away from the area and allow for drier high pressure to build over the state.
310 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Trailing trough continues to dive southward along the Rockies this morning. Still expecting a weak ridge briefly on Wednesday, before the next trough begins to impact far western WY later Wednesday, with increasing clouds and some early snow possible for the Tetons. The weak ridge will continue to slide eastward Wednesday night ahead of the next system.
Overnight lows will again range from the lower to middle 40s over southeast Kansas, to the lower 50s over far south central Missouri. There will be a wide disparity in temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 50s in southeast Kansas to as warm as the lower 70s across far south central Missouri.
The first mature 998 mb surface cyclone will lift to the north & east across the southern and central plains with the primary deformation rain/ snow axis remaining well to the east of the CWA. Models have started to suggest the development of a thermal trough axis from N to S across the CWA, characterized by 700 millibar temperatures as low as -12 deg C.
The focus then shifts to the system dropping in from the north and a cold front that sweeps north to south through the area today with wind advisories going into effect at 8 am PDT this morning. This will result in a day of dry weather conditions and slightly warmer temperatures although still below normal.
416 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Overview: At 09Z, a maturing mid-latitude cyclone was centered invof Medicine Lodge, KS with a minimum central pressure ~994 mb. The ensuing vertically stacked cyclone will lift NNE through eastern KS into northwest MO and southwest IA today, progressing toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. Today-Tonight: An imposing N-S oriented deformation band -- on the NW-WNW periphery of a maturing mid-latitude cyclone progressing NNE through central/eastern Kansas -- will bi-sect the Tri-State area from west-east today. as the MSLP gradient tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned cyclone. Wed-Wed night: A period of rain will be possible as the nearly stalled upper low over the Desert Southwest progresses east toward west Texas on Wed, mainly in far southeast portions of the area.
613 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES-16 Water Vapor showing a weak mid-level trough ejecting northeast across IA/western IL. Moisture surge ahead of this trough along with mid-level f-gen was producing widely scattered showers across southeast MN into northern WI. Meanwhile, a vigorous closed low was churning along the OK/TX border -our next weather maker through the next 24-36 hours. This closed low will lift northward into the region this afternoon and across our area tonight into Wednesday. Rain finally exits the area by evening as the low continues to pull northeast into Canada and a weak ridge of high pressure builds in.
526 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A broad upper trough remains over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Two low pressure systems are located in the region of the upper trough. The eastern low pressure system will continue to move northeastward into Iowa today. Deep moisture rotating around that low pressure system will bring rain to parts of south central South Dakota today.
Expect some snow accumulations over the higher elevations.
The low level winds aloft will shift to become out of the east/southeast in the early morning hours tonight.
Slightly cooler highs forecast along the coast from the Cape northward, in the low to mid-70s.
Made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures through the afternoon to capture observations running a degree or two warmer than expected. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 55 69 59 71 / 20 30 20 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 52 72 56 71 / 10 20 20 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 53 71 56 70 / 10 20 10 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 49 72 51 70 / 10 10 20 40 70.
1159 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Trailing trough continues to dive southward along the Rockies this morning. Still expecting a weak ridge briefly on Wednesday, before the next trough begins to impact far western WY later Wednesday, with increasing clouds and some early snow possible for the Tetons. The weak ridge will continue to slide eastward Wednesday night ahead of the next system.
Though Wednesday looks a bit cooler than Tuesday, it will be breezier, and relative humidity may still drop to around 40 percent, making conditions still somewhat favorable for wildfires.
Low clouds will remain across the northern half of the forecast area through much of the day with notably warmer afternoon temps across southern locations.
This low will be weakening as it moves across our CWA and combined with a lack of moisture means precipitation chances are fairly low.
318 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 An upper low will continue lifting northeast across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest this evening and tonight, while southwesterly flow associated with the larger-scale upper trough increases deep-layer moisture across the Southeast.
249 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
Low pressure will exit the region overnight leaving a dry northwest flow in place through mid week with occasional breezy to windy conditions.
Short term high- resolution guidance indicates precipitation associated with this trough/deformation zone will last through the evening hours and could transition to snow further south/west, but little to now accumulation is expected as precipitation should be diminishing by the time many locations transition.
1148 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Overview: At 09Z, a maturing mid-latitude cyclone was centered invof Medicine Lodge, KS with a minimum central pressure ~994 mb. The ensuing vertically stacked cyclone will lift NNE through eastern KS into northwest MO and southwest IA today, progressing toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. Today-Tonight: An imposing N-S oriented deformation band -- on the NW-WNW periphery of a maturing mid-latitude cyclone progressing NNE through central/eastern Kansas -- will bi-sect the Tri-State area from west-east today. as the MSLP gradient tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned cyclone. Wed-Wed night: A period of rain will be possible as the nearly stalled upper low over the Desert Southwest progresses east toward west Texas on Wed, mainly in far southeast portions of the area.
Should be another fairly chilly night as cold air advection will continue on the backside of the low with low 30s in the west and mid 30s in the east. A trough located over Las Vegas at the time of this discussion will be moving into New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. The models have been hinting at a brief closed low at 500 mb but then the system quickly evolves into a progressive trough during the evening on Wednesday. With the faster moving system QPF values are tending to stay under a half inch with the highest totals as this point being in our far southwest zones.
Concerning the forecast, cycle-to-cycle changes remain minimal as warmer, but still dry, weather is on the way for the rest of this week. Temperatures will likely fall into the (upper) 60s one last time this evening as surface winds remain light and variable, decoupled from weak southerly flow in the low levels of the boundary layer. This will begin to change meaningfully overnight as the influence of low pressure (located just offshore the Carolinas) begins to wane, allowing southeasterlies from the western North Atlantic ridge to seep in. This will lead to a veering vertical profile with surface flow reconnecting with ridging aloft. Likewise, high temperatures will soar to the mid 80s, quite a bit warmer than the 70s the past couple of days.
Should be another fairly chilly night as cold air advection will continue on the backside of the low with low 30s in the west and mid 30s in the east. A trough located over Las Vegas at the time of this discussion will be moving into New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. The models have been hinting at a brief closed low at 500 mb but then the system quickly evolves into a progressive trough during the evening on Wednesday. With the faster moving system QPF values are tending to stay under a half inch with the highest totals as this point being in our far southwest zones. Progressive long wave trough will continue to move through the region Wednesday night and the rain or rain/snow mix should exit after midnight.
Expect mainly rainfree conds this afternoon though a few showers could pop up as the weakening cold front pushes into the area. Latest VWP data indicates 40kts around 2kft associated with the low level jet. This activity is ahead of a cold front which is currently over central Oklahoma and extends south into south central Texas. This cold front will move east today across Arkansas approaching the Mississippi River by early this evening. The cold front is expected to stall out close to the Mississippi River tonight with some scattered showers expected across eastern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A low pressure system will slowly cross the region through tonight.
233 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES satellite imagery showed a potent low pressure system over eastern KS and upper trough digging south through the Great Basin. A short wave ridge was centered along the WY/CO Front Range, along with a weak 700mb thermal ridge. The higher elevations could receive up to three inches of snow. A upper low over AZ tonight will move east into NM Wednesday then transition to a trough over the southern High Plains Wednesday night. The cool and unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week with a persistent mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS.
Today will be dry with high pressure over the area.
(This evening through Wednesday) (Tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the area tonight into Wednesday, ahead of an upper level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. The upper level trough will move east across New Mexico on Wednesday and into West Texas by Wednesday evening. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s over far southeast areas. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Cold front moves through Wednesday night. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the evening, the better lift and moisture will occur after midnight as an upper trough move east across West Texas.
Short wave ridging takes hold for Wednesday so night so expect things to be dry.
Very easy to see the main feature of interest in satellite imagery, a potent upper level low pressure system currently spinning roughly over the eastern NE/KS border. Quite a range in speeds, near the center of the low around York/Hebron speeds around around 10 MPH or so, further west, gusts near 35 MPH are common. Temperatures remained fairly steady through the day, currently sitting in the lower-mid 40s. The highest forecast PoPs are right now through late evening, ending from south to north with time, and am admittedly on the slow side of drying things out. Models are in pretty good agreement showing another upper level low pressure system digging into the Desert SW tonight, taking a northeastward turn Wed/Wed night.
Down in the foothills around Red Lodge itself, snow has not been as heavy, but in the higher mountains snow has been falling fairly heavy at times. Will keep the highlights going through midnight. Wednesday should be lull in the active pattern as some flat ridging works in, with temperatures around normals.
323 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Tonight, a low pressure system, currently over eastern Kansas, will continue towards Lake Superior.
/issued 953 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ The line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that had stalled across southwest Louisiana earlier this morning dropping four to six inches of rain is once again progressing eastward at a decent clip. Skies to remain cloudy as temperatures fall back into the lower 60s.
Northwest winds will increase by sunrise as the low shifts into Iowa and we can expect gusts around 30 mph by sunrise.
315 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong.
247 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Widespread rain continues through most of the short-term period in association with the upper low lifting into Iowa on early afternoon water vapor satellite. We dry out by Wednesday evening, with temperatures expected to dip to near or below freezing in most spots on Wednesday night.
139 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
Currently, ridging is retreating across the eastern CONUS, with a seasonably deep upper level low churning across the southern Plains. Temporary flatter flow is occupying the Desert Southwest, with additional troughing moving in across the Intermountain West. At the surface, ridging is still maintaining control across the East, with deepening low pressure centered across southern Kansas. The upper level ridge across the East will dampen and move out across the western Atlantic today, while the southern Plains upper level low will move northeast across the Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will follow suit, reaching the Great Lakes by Wednesday, with its associated eastward moving cold front shearing out as it crosses the Mississippi River. Highs will return to the lower 70s for most locations.
The upper level flow over Texas has become zonal behind a trough this afternoon. A surface cold front is stretched along the Texas coast from Houston to Corpus Christi and then across South Texas. High pressure will be over the region tonight and skies will be mainly clear. Wednesday another upper trough will move into West Texas and bring a dryline and cold front combination into our CWA. Convection will spread across more of the area as the cold front moves across during the evening.
Generally looking at a tenth to half an inch of rain turning to light snow in some places overnight especially the higher elevations. Much cooler tomorrow behind the front with 30s and 40s as mostly cloudy skies persist into the afternoon.
The low level shear remains decent with 0-1km and 0-3km bulk shear at 20-25 knots and 20-30 knot respectively.
The deep tropospheric mid-latitude cyclone will lift northeastward across Iowa tonight. Scattered showers rotating on the back side of the low will affect portions of central Kansas and the Flint Hills through the late afternoon, though ending later this evening, followed by decreasing wind and clouds later tonight across the entire area.
132 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Overview: At 09Z, a maturing mid-latitude cyclone was centered invof Medicine Lodge, KS with a minimum central pressure ~994 mb. The ensuing vertically stacked cyclone will lift NNE through eastern KS into northwest MO and southwest IA today, progressing toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. Today-Tonight: An imposing N-S oriented deformation band -- on the NW-WNW periphery of a maturing mid-latitude cyclone progressing NNE through central/eastern Kansas -- will bi-sect the Tri-State area from west-east today. as the MSLP gradient tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned cyclone. Wed-Wed night: A period of rain will be possible as the nearly stalled upper low over the Desert Southwest progresses east toward west Texas on Wed, mainly in far southeast portions of the area.
There may be some additional showers overnight as the actual front/upper trough swings through, but it won't amount to much and there also won't be any temperature change as the upper flow remains southwesterly.
230 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Upper level low continues to move slowly across the Central Plains this afternoon and will accelerate northeast tonight. Patten will remain active this week but overall the higher impact weather will remain focused to our southeast.
216 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Ridging aloft will continue to build over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. At the surface, an area of low pressure lingering off the Carolinas coast will finally move away from the region, with high pressure then extending across Florida.