Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
538 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 A weak cold front will drop south through Illinois this afternoon. Clouds and precipitation associated with a low pressure system passing by to the south of Illinois has not produced much in the way of cloud cover for our CWA so far overnight. No precipitation will develop this far north, despite a cold frontal passage progged to occur from north to south this afternoon.
533 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 A cold front over Lake Superior will drop southward through the area this morning.
A warm & dry weekend ahead for the central Rockies w/ broad upper- level ridging remaining anchored over much of the western US. Temperatures continue to trend warmer today with day- time highs in the mid/upper 50s for areas along and east of I-25 & low to mid 40s over our western zones. Saturday should be slightly cooler w/ the passage of a weak cold front, but generally speaking it will be another mild day.
541 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 This morning, we find ourselves sandwiched between an upper ridge that comes out across the northern Rockies and a deep upper low coming down off of Hudson Bay. From that upper low, there is a backdoor cold front dropping southwest across Lake Superior, whose western tail will wash out at about I-94 today. Therefore highs for Saturday will be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two cooler thanks to the cloud cover. Little change in the pattern is expected through the period, with anomalously strong ridging over the western half of the CONUS expected to maintain our mild and dry stretch of weather.
/issued 347 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ Showers are quickly shifting out of the Midsouth as a strongly positively tilted longwave trough approaches the lower to mid Mississippi River valley.
334 AM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 In addition to a ridge across the Rockies there is a compact upper low that pulls into southeast Idaho today, and then back westward on Saturday. Under high pressure winds will be light in most locations except today across southeast Fremont and Natrona where a common southwest breeze will be observed. Have kept those areas on the low end of the guidance or even cut a few degrees below that.
234 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 An upper level low over the region will move east of our area by 00 UTC. Given full sun, went on the higher side of guidance, similar to the NBM, and lining up with GFS/EC guidance.
The lower levels, just off the surface to about 3000 feet, winds are coming from the east southeast. Taking a look at analysis and water vapor satellite imagery, there is a rather large and broad trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico, with a ridge developing in the western Caribbean. This same time yesterday we were about 3 to 5 degrees cooler. As high pressure off the Carolina coast continues to trek eastward, the gradient across the region will continue to relax and winds will continue to slacken.
Rain has moved out of the area as a cold front moves east this afternoon. Skies will gradually clear from west to east this afternoon and evening as the upper trough pivots eastward. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area through tonight in the wake of the front. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s inland to low 40s along the coast.
Temperatures haven't risen much from their morning lows as many locations are hovering in the low to mid 40s at this hour. We're likely to see clouds/stratus return to the region early tomorrow morning as a fast moving cold front currently in southern MI pushes southward, and low level moisture becomes trapped in a strong inversion behind the front.
Clouds and precipitation associated with a low pressure system passing by to the south of Illinois has not produced much in the way of cloud cover for our CWA so far overnight. No precipitation will develop this far north, despite a cold frontal passage progged to occur from north to south this afternoon.
One is about to move into the Tennessee Valley, a second feature(closed upper low) is over Sonora and last but not least, a vort lobe is sinking south across the Western Great Lakes region. Upper low over Western Mex is expected to slowly slide east tonight and by Sat afternoon will be moving into western TX.
A convoluted pattern downstream of an upstream blocking ridge was portrayed with several seemingly dissociated systems in a broad upper trof bounded over the eastern CONUS. Some ridging will increase the west to east upper flow and help temperatures rise a little more into the mid 40s; otherwise, no significant weather is expected.
Clouds are abundant across Michigan as of this writing associated with a cold front dropping in. High pressure sets up on Saturday with cool northerly flow. High pressure remains in control on Saturday.
Surface analysis is showing broad westerly flow across the region with a weak trough extending from the Great Lakes across northwest Missouri into the central Plains. There was a cold front over the upper Midwest which the HREF shows moving south into Missouri and Illinois later tonight before it begins to weaken.
/issued 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ An upper level low pressure system is moving through the Mid-South this morning. Latest CAM runs show a few showers developing across West Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low moves through. /issued 347 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ Showers are quickly shifting out of the Midsouth as a strongly positively tilted longwave trough approaches the lower to mid Mississippi River valley.
A ridge of high pressure aloft was keeping our area dry with light and variable winds at the surface, allowing plentiful sunshine and prevailing temperatures in the 40s. Northwest flow will prevail through this period as a high amplitude ridge sets up across the eastern Rockies.
We've continued the trend of warming a bit more than originally forecast this afternoon with a handful of sites dipping into the lower 50s. At the upper levels, an expansive west coast ridge is holding strong over the western US. The ridge axis will begin to deamplify a bit on Saturday as it nudges a bit closer to the Northern Plains. Expect a few clouds overnight with lows in the 20s and a mostly sunny sky on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s across the Turtle Mountains to the lower 50s again southwest and perhaps the far south central.
The strong upper ridge gets squashed across the east on Saturday as an upper low barrels into Minnesota, but other than some slightly cooler temps from the James Valley east, this system will have no real effect. The high temperature forecast will remain in the 75th to 90th percentile, numbers that the ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance continue to support well with highs in the 40s and 50s.
906 AM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Dry and warming airmass today as high pressure continues to build over the region. Surface temperatures running about 10-15 degrees warmer this morning from 24 hours ago. It should wind up about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Low level convergence and thus light rain/drizzle associated with an inverted surface trof will continue over southern parts of the Purchase and Pennyrile areas of western KY through 12Z or so as the parent mid level low over southern MO gradually moves eastward. trof departs and broad Central U. ridging works overtop the PAH FA. The NBM is bullish on this ridging, driving its temps upwards to the 75th percentile of the envelope of model guidance as this metamorphosis occurs. This looks to be a mostly dry period, though there is some collaborative interest expressed in adding trace or low qpf pops on the front end of the package as the aforementioned trof spins out, before the broad ridging takes over. Will monitor for patchy fog / freezing fog late tonight.
An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary are departing to the east while high pressure is settling in from Texas to the Rockies. By afternoon, however, the upper low will move closer increasing chances of rain.
Winds turning west-to-northwest behind the cold front later this evening. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 53 31 53 35 / 10 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 48 29 50 33 / 50 20 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 34 49 29 50 33 / 30 20 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 44 26 48 29 / 80 40 0 0 20.
Overnight lows should to drop into the mid to upper teens for most areas with warmer temperatures near the lake.
1053 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (Today and tonight) Patchy fog (freezing fog) will be seen across the region this morning, with most of the fog confined to low lying areas.
High pressure at the surface over TX will bring a prevailing light west to southwest wind. Highs will climb to near average for this time of year, into the low to mid 50s under full insolation.
934 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (Issued 934 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020) A weak cold front will drop through north to south today, with the main impact being some increased clouds, particularly in the east.
Tomorrow will likely end up several degrees cooler than today and northwest winds will be a bit more breezy. That said, highs should still reach the low to mid 50s.
1154 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (Today and tonight) Clear and cold morning ongoing across West Central Texas with temperatures falling into the lower 20s already in some areas. Upper low over northern Mexico will move slowly southeast tonight, with models showing increasing cloud cover across the areas of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley by morning.
We are in a recovery from the previous winter system, and temperatures will gradually increase each day as high pressure builds over the Panhandles. Areas to the northeast may still be a bit cooler with highs as the snowpack is still melting away.
This northwest flow exists to the east of persistent troughing across the eastern CONUS and to the west of a large and strong ridge over the northwest CONUS. Can't completely rule out some fog with the very light winds and clear skies, but the weak advection of warmer and drier air should keep the boundary layer from becoming saturated.
High pressure over the Interior West will maintain dry conditions for the next several days. Another day of upper level ridging across the Interior West.
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 A cold front over Lake Superior will drop southward through the area this morning.
1117 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 This morning, we find ourselves sandwiched between an upper ridge that comes out across the northern Rockies and a deep upper low coming down off of Hudson Bay. From that upper low, there is a backdoor cold front dropping southwest across Lake Superior, whose western tail will wash out at about I-94 today. Therefore highs for Saturday will be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two cooler thanks to the cloud cover. Little change in the pattern is expected through the period, with anomalously strong ridging over the western half of the CONUS expected to maintain our mild and dry stretch of weather.
234 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 An upper level low pressure system is pushing east into Middle Tennessee at this time. High pressure will build into the area for Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper low in northern Mexico will move northeast across West Central Texas Saturday, with the center moving along a Sonora to Brownwood line. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly in the higher elevations in northwest Crockett county Saturday morning and early afternoon.
At this time, the HREF and SREF indicate the highest potential for fog extending from around the Pittsburg, KS and Joplin, MO, northeast towards the Truman Lake region. With temperatures expected to fall slightly below freezing, the potential for freezing fog exists if the fog does materialize. Sunny skies can be expected for the remainder of the day despite the approach of a dry cold front. We should add 3-6 degrees for highs tomorrow (versus highs this afternoon) with most areas making the lower or middle 50s.
1011 AM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 Skies expected to remain mostly cloudy today, as mid to high level clouds continue to spread eastward across central Florida ahead of a cold front that will shift eastward into the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf. As the pocket of drier air in the lower levels gradually erodes through late day, a slight chance for light but measurable rainfall may be possible, especially across northern portions of central Florida into late afternoon, so have added 20 PoPs across this region. There will be a greater chance for showers, as well as MFVR/localized IFR cigs along to behind a cold front that will move through the area later into tonight.
Once again, temperatures are topping out above normal, in the lower to mid 50s.
A cool night will be in store for the region tonight underneath high pressure and with deep dry air in place, expect efficient radiational cooling tonight with many places dipping into the 20s by Saturday morning.
Winds remain a bit elevated along the MO River tonight but elsewhere should see good radiational cooling with lows falling to the lower to mid 20s.
1033 AM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 In addition to a ridge across the Rockies there is a compact upper low that pulls into southeast Idaho today, and then back westward on Saturday. Under high pressure winds will be light in most locations except today across southeast Fremont and Natrona where a common southwest breeze will be observed. Have kept those areas on the low end of the guidance or even cut a few degrees below that.
/Issued 650 AM EST Fri Dec 4 2020/ A strong upper closed low will rotate from the lower MS River Valley into the southern Appalachians during the short term. there could be some instability developing mainly this afternoon as the warm front tries to move north.
Despite the upper flow and a weak cold front moving through tonight, high temperatures Saturday will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs near previous forecast in the low to mid 50s.
An upper level low pressure system is moving eastward into Eastern Arkansas. Upper pattern over the region this morning is characterized by a positively tilted trough extending from eastern Oklahoma northeast into the Ohio valley. All short term/high res models agree in moving this trough/low to the east and into southern Illinois by late morning. Otherwise, upper pattern across the CONUS features ridging over the west with an extension of the positively tilted trough into the desert southwest. Another upper low, currently over northern Mexico will lift out and be located over eastern Texas by the end of the period.
(This evening through Saturday) Mostly clear skies, seasonable highs, and lows just below freezing will dominate the short term.
1154 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 Quiet weather continues with warmer than normal temperatures.
some slightly cooler air moves into the area overnight. Despite the cooler air high temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 50s. This is after morning lows in the low to mid 20s.
Quiet weather should continue into tonight, as weak high pressure works into the area.
A few cirrus have developed over the southern Edwards Plateau today in the southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow ahead of a closed low over N Mexico.
Temperature wise, expect a few cold spots under the clear skies in central Wisconsin to drop into the lower teens. Areas with more cloud cover and closer to the lakeshore will stay closer to the lower twenties. The incoming high pressure will keep a cooler air mass in place, so high temperatures will likely remain in the lower to middle 30s during the day.
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 An upper level low pressure system is moving through the Mid-South this morning. Latest CAM runs show a few showers developing across West Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low moves through. /issued 347 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ Showers are quickly shifting out of the Midsouth as a strongly positively tilted longwave trough approaches the lower to mid Mississippi River valley.
1104 AM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Upper level ridge will continue to build into Colorado today, as old upper low sinks south through TX. Did keep snow covered areas of the far sern plains slightly cooler than blended guidance another day, especially ern Las Animas and Baca counties.
131 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Broad upper-level ridging covers the western and central CONUS. Persistent upper ridging will keep weather mild and dry for the next several days.
This has caused the surface anticyclone to broaden significantly, resulting in variable winds and ample mixing with temperatures already peaking in the middle 50s across the CWA this afternoon. The presence of clouds and weak, northeasterly low-level flow will cause temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than today, peaking in the lower 50s area-wide on Saturday afternoon. Sincavage The upper-level low will continue to progress over the state during tomorrow night, with an increase in its forward motion owing to the intensification of the sub-tropical jet stream as a strong cyclone forms over the northeastern U.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Clouds are slowing pushing eastward out of the region today as the closed upper low/trough which plagued the region over the past couple of days, has lifted NE into the TN Valley. Skies will eventually move out the region, with mostly clear conditions expected as high pressure settles into the region this evening. This should result in light winds and good radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s overnight with a few areas falling below freezing. However, southwest flow aloft will return with mid to high clouds on the increase ahead of another closed upper low lifting north out of Mexico into West Texas.
245 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 WV imagery shows yesterday's main trough currently over the MS Valley. That said, best chances of snow continue to be the Davis Mtns through the Stockton Plateau, although confidence is higher at the higher elevations. While moisture remains lacking, models signal a modest deformation band on the north side of the low, under which higher snowfall accumulations are anticipated.
317 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 Low pressure will move east across the upper Great Lakes region, dragging a weak cold front southeast across the area this evening. At the same time, low pressure will move from the Southeast off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Given full sun, went on the higher side of guidance, similar to the NBM, and lining up with GFS/EC guidance. trof departs and broad Central U. ridging works overtop the PAH FA. The NBM is bullish on this ridging, driving its temps upwards to the 75th percentile of the envelope of model guidance as this metamorphosis occurs. This looks to be a mostly dry period, though there is some collaborative interest expressed in adding trace or low qpf pops on the front end of the package as the aforementioned trof spins out, before the broad ridging takes over. Will monitor for patchy fog / freezing fog late tonight.
143 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Very little change in the upper air pattern through Saturday with high amplitude ridge of high pressure across much of the west. There is a tiny system which rides over the ridge into the Northern high plains and Great Lakes region Saturday. This brings just slightly cooler air into the low levels Saturday afternoon following a very weak frontal push.
Have trended temperatures warmer for Saturday too, although this is when the upper level disturbance will swing through the FA. After this, confidence is increasing on a warming trend caused by a lingering upper level ridge.
At the surface, high pressure remains out over the western Atlantic Ocean with weak low pressure over the southeast and a frontal boundary moving into the deep south. Rain chances increase for tonight as the front moves through the area, with most showers coming to an end Saturday morning as high pressure quickly builds back in.
With high pressure locked over the Northern Rockies, low stratus has held steady across the Flathead and Mission valleys, including valleys as far west as Libby, Troy, and Yaak.
An upper level low over the region will move east of our area by 00 UTC. Given full sun, went on the higher side of guidance, similar to the NBM, and lining up with GFS/EC guidance.
Weak veering winds off the surface were noted on the evening sounding as the lower tropospheric ridging over the western Atlantic/northern Bahamas erodes, although the sounding showed little if any change in heights at 500 mb since this morning. Low pressure developing across the eastern Gulf and southeast U.
/issued 245 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ WV imagery shows yesterday's main trough currently over the MS Valley. That said, best chances of snow continue to be the Davis Mtns through the Stockton Plateau, although confidence is higher at the higher elevations. While moisture remains lacking, models signal a modest deformation band on the north side of the low, under which higher snowfall accumulations are anticipated.
523 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 High pressure will be over the area through the period.
955 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 A cold front will drop through the region tonight, followed by cooler conditions for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Upper low bringing all the rain early today now just moving east off the Plateau. Clearing skies setting the stage for patchy overnight fog, possibly freezing fog in spots early tomorrow as temps drop down to near 30.
Have sped up exit of pops for the lower elevations, but kept pops lingering in the eastern mountains. The freezing level should be low enough now for precip in mountains to be mainly snow by now. Freezing level on radar down to about 6500 feet MSL or so. Should be getting drier in lower elevations as high pressure builds in. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 53 32 54 37 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 48 30 52 36 / 20 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 34 49 30 51 35 / 10 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 44 27 49 33 / 90 10 0 0 20.
202 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 High pressure centered across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain mostly clear, dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend.
This is most evident in dewpoint temperatures ranging from the mid 30 to the lower 40s across the region. Clear skies and dry air above the boundary layer will allow for good radiative heat loss after sunset with minimums expected in the low to mid 30s by sunrise Saturday.
Now that the lower clouds have departed the area, should be a quiet forecast period with VFR conditions prevailing. An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary are departing to the east while high pressure is settling in from Texas to the Rockies. By afternoon, however, the upper low will move closer increasing chances of rain.
Cold front pushing over the western Florida panhandle at this time with dew point temps in the mid 40s.
606 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Strong high pressure aloft will keep our region clear/dry.
514 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Mostly clear skies, seasonable highs, and lows just below freezing will dominate the short term.
As a result, expect upper 30s to near 40 for overnight lows to prevail in this region with generally 40s elsewhere except the extreme lower valley where lows will be in the lower 50s given the thicker cloud cover in this region. KBRO radar continued to show light rain/virga approaching from the southwest towards the lower valley. However, towards sunrise sufficient moistening of this sub-cloud layer as a result of increasing isentropic lift and large-scale ascent from the approaching northern Mexico closed low will occur. The best chances for rain will again be the lower valley where the strongest isentropic upglide, dynamic forcing, and deepest moisture will coincide.
/issued 234 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ An upper level low pressure system is pushing east into Middle Tennessee at this time. High pressure will build into the area for Saturday.
The band appears to be right under the crossing upper level jet and will likely remain until the surface cold front and approaching trough axis, push most of the precipitation southeast. Present vorticity advection will result in rain showers south of Pittsburgh to change to snow overnight as temperature cools to below freezing.