Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main threat with storms will remain heavy rainfall and lightning in the high CAPE but low shear environment. Somewhat zonal flow quickly amplifies with a mean trough forming over the Great Lakes and Mid-West which remains in place across the region through the period. Rather significant ridging does develop aloft and replaces this eastern CONUS trough as it lifts northeast out of the region just beyond the end of the extended window.
Drier air and high pressure are present over northern KS and southern Nebraska, but with cloud cover and minimal advection across much of the forecast area, dewpoints remain fairly high while dewpoint depressions are rather small. The most likely areas for fog development would be those areas that received appreciable rain in the past 24 hours but will also clear out and also have the higher initial dewpoints.
650 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will move across the area this evening and end the showers.
447 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
635 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Upper level ridging not only stays centered just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. Tuesday the piedmont trough appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze.
This lowered highs svrl degs over parts of N-cntrl KS where rain fell and skies were cloudy most of the morning. The low-lvl jet and moist tongue will remain out to the W.
with current temperatures running about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
The water vapor loop also shows a broad area of low pressure and convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Large scale features look to remain progressive, with high pressure building through the southern Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley tonight into early Tuesday. Dry and mostly sunny start to Tuesday, which should stay that way for areas south of the big bridge right through the day. the cold front sags into the region with the RRQ of the 500 mb jet.
As the low level jet increases through the overnight hours, temperatures will have a hard time cooling off- especially across central South Dakota. Further to the east, high pressure will be more in control keeping winds light allowing for better radiational cooling. Believe that the convective activity will now be tied close to this boundary across our northern and western zones, as the remainder of our forecast area is fairly stable with high pressure exiting to our east.
333 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Warm and humid conditions will persist with lows ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches, Downtown Charleston and around Lake Moultrie. A persistent weather pattern is in place as strong Atlantic mid/upper-level ridging extends across the Southeast and a weak trough remains far inland.
249 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Upper level ridge centered near the four corner will drift west the next 24 hours. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs climbing above 90 degrees over much of northeast Colorado. An upper trough and surface front passing southeast across the area Tuesday night will help push scattered thunderstorms east into Kansas through midnight, with gusty outflow winds, small hail and brief moderate to heavy rainfall the main impacts. Cooler air behind the trough and clearing skies will allow for minimum temperatures to cool a degree or two cooler than tonight's readings.
521 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Cold front moves into the region and stalls tonight. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening.
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 259 AM CDT A cold front bisects the county warning area along a southwest to northeast axis. There are also a few showers in southern Wisconsin associated with an upper low across west central Ontario. The leading edge of the cold front will move southeast of the area later this morning, taking the last of the lingering showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind the front we will welcome in a slightly cooler and less humid air mass, along with at least a few day period of dry weather. âComfortableâ dewpoints in the 60s will make more seasonably warm but certainly more tolerable conditions for mid-summer, as highs top out in the mid to upper 80s, or just a tad above normal, though a bit cooler at the lake with a lake breeze expected.
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Cooler outflow from the convective system in northeastern MO should track through much of, if not the entire forecast area. Even without the outflow boundary moving through, temperatures were a degree or two cooler than 24 hours ago. Where the clouds and rain cooled air are most prevalent, the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area, temperatures are about 15 degrees cooler than a day ago. Given all this, highs in the northeast will likely only be in the lower 90s or near 90 this afternoon. Plus it's deeper into the upper high.
535 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Warm and humid air continues to stream into the region this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
An upper-level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will push a dry cold front through northern Utah tonight.
High pressure ridge will sink South this period, and become centered Southeast of the region.
Very little change expected through the weekend as the upper ridge remains in control.
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Warm and humid air continues to stream into the region this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
1131 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front today.
These storms are showing a tendency to hug the higher terrain and thus could produce locally heavy rain.
An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure stretching across the southern United States will dominate weather across the Rocky Mountain Region over the next several days. Some subtropical moisture trapped beneath the ridge.
622 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday.
253 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Current surface map shows low over southeast Montana with trof into the Nebraska Panhandle. Cold front crosses northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota late tonight. Highs 10-15F cooler for Saturday.
On Saturday, the upper ridge will be suppressed slightly and the coverage of scattered showers is expected to be much broader than today.
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Upper ridge centered west of the MS river and extending eastward across GA will continue as the dominant weather feature through the short term. except maybe any remnant boundaries and the persistent lee side trough.
Showers and isolated tstms near the Divide have moved out of the area as the upper trof over northern ID and the associated cold front move east. as cooler temps move in behind the cold front.
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 12z Upper-air analysis revealed a mid-level high centered over northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas with a ridge axis extending northwest through the northern High Plains to the lee of the Canadian Rockies. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis indicates a weak front/trough stretching from northwest Iowa through northeast and south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas. A weak perturbation over Wyoming this afternoon will crest the mid-level ridge axis over the mid Missouri Valley tonight before shifting east of the area Saturday. On Saturday, areas of clouds and isolated storms may linger through part of the morning before giving way to another day of hot and humid conditions ahead of a cold front approaching our area from the northwest.
There are also some showers and thunderstorms in east Texas and central Louisiana moving south, related to an upper level disturbance rotating around the high pressure centered over the central US. Another round of thunderstorms is expected Saturday thanks to another short wave rotating around the upper level ridge of high pressure.
Temperatures reach well into the upper 90s to the low 100s over the Plains this afternoon with compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front.
The weekend looks to continue with mainly sunny skies and warmer than average temperatures. Additional amplification of the upper trof on Saturday looks to be wasted by the significantly drier air and high pressure at the surface.
At 2 pm temps range from the low to mid 90s across northern areas that did not see rain to mid and upper 70s and low 80s to the south where showers and thunderstorms have been more widespread. The overall pattern does not change much for Saturday as the area remains on the eastern side of a strong upper ridge over the central plains and a developing upper low off the southeast coast. Areas that don't receive rain tomorrow will again climb into the low to mid 90s. Muggy overnight conditions continue with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to move east and drives a divergent SW upper flow over the area tonight. The upper low moves across southern Sask with showers mainly staying north of the border. NW flow and minor upper troughing may bring in an isolated shower to the area Saturday night. Temperatures over the weekend will be noticeably cooler with 850 mb temps about 10*C lower.
1130 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Modest fetch of monsoon moisture remains across CO on western fringes of the upper high positioned across the central plains. The upper trof will move across the northern U. Rockies tonight which will allow a cold front to advance southward towards CO late in the period.
so any sunshine should boost us at least into the lower 90s.
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday.
Tonight Through Saturday A red flag warning is in effect until 9 pm mdt for zones 414 415 416 283 285 and 288 for low relative humidity strong wind gusts with a cold frontal passage and widely scattered thunderstorms with wind gusts to 50 mph. A rather strong pacific low pressure trough for mid summer will pass through western and central wyoming this evening. Ahead of the trough scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the area. A surface cold front will move through with the upper level trough with a wind shift to the west northwest with clearing. strong wind gusts for a few hours behind the cold front should be expected. Cooler dry air will move in later tonight and Saturday. Saturday night Through Friday Cooler dry air is expected over the area Saturday night.
The main increase in precipitation coverage will occur late tonight as the front finally lifts northward and the low level jet increases along the strengthening theta-e gradient. Although, typically the low level jet lessens in the morning, which leads to an overall decrease in thunderstorm activity, this may not be the case. In addition, this highly induced theta-e gradient/warm front scenario will likely be the focus for more convection during the afternoon in central Minnesota.
A trough of low pressure and associated cold front are moving into north central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. The cold front will also support breezy conditions across northwest Montana with significant chop or waves on larger lakes, such as Flathead Lake. Over north central Idaho, a cooler air mass has arrived and the atmosphere should quickly stabilize this evening. Over west central and southwest Montana, the cold front will support breezy to windy conditions into this evening.
This will result in slightly lower heights and temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler, maybe.
202 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. A few storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Cold front will work its way across Nebraska through the day. Instability should be favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm humid airmass south of front/trough. Somewhat cooler temperatures are anticipated after the passage of a cold front over the weekend.
651 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this evening. A secondary cold front will move through on Saturday and push offshore Saturday night.
An area of high pressure over the southwest states will keep very hot conditions over the Mojave Desert region through the weekend.
133 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. A few storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Cold front will work its way across Nebraska through the day. Instability should be favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm humid airmass south of front/trough.
The low level jet convergence remains well to our west through 06z then shifts northward into S Canada later tonight. Cold front should approach the western fa at prime heating supported by relatively robust mid level wave.
Low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 70s. As upper-level ridging begins to weaken and mid-level temps cool slightly, areal coverage of thunderstorms will become a bit more robust on Saturday. Have carried low chance PoPs everywhere with highs topping out in the lower to middle 90s.
Flow aloft has turned westerly behind a long wave trough that moved onshore earlier this morning. The upper level pattern will alternate between weak zonal flow and weak troughing. The ridges of the coast range will be dry and breezy during the overnight hours due to low to moderate. Stronger winds are returning to the coastal waters as the thermal trough returns to the coast.
The 599 dam 500 mb ridge is expected to slowly retrograde to west the next few days.
The high will remain in place but weaken slightly. The Pac NW trof will head into Canada tonight into tomorrow. Surface: A SW-NE oriented sfc trof bisected KS/Neb. with a warm front developing and lifting N and E into SD/IA. Peak Dwpts Today: Aurora 81F Kearney 79F York 79F Grand Island 77F Ord 77F What compounded these dwpts was winds were much lighter/calm near the sfc trof. Forcing is on the low end of the mesoscale and weak. Aloft: Zonal flow over the Nrn USA will gradually transition to a slight Wrn ridge/Ern trof. 2) Return much cooler (actually near normal) temps.
This quiet weather is expected to persist into the overnight hours with a high pressure in control of the western Great Lakes. The main forecast concern on Saturday will be the possibility for afternoon convection ahead of an approaching cold front.
With the upper ridge holding tough, will continue to the heat warning through the weekend.
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Diurnal convection continues to be main weather feature across portions of the region as the 598 decameter upper level high pressure system continues to compress and shift to the southwest. The highest probability of showers and thunderstorms will be across far western OK Panhandle and far northwestern TX Panhandle from this afternoon to late tonight.
Surface winds will veer from east today to more southeast and strengthen just a bit on Friday as high pressure reorients slightly. today so have trimmed PoP's a bit accordingly but will still be mentionable across the lower and mid-RGV.
1145 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Updated aviation section The arrival of low pressure to the left coast of central NOAM will signal a change in the pattern across the west beginning today. The Pacific NW upper Low ejects through the northern Rockies while the subtropical High also expands across the southern tier of states into the SE Pacific. KTEX and KASE remain the highest at threat for thunderstorms to reach within 5nm.
/ISSUED / 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 High pressure dominating the weather this morning along with the nocturnal inversion and landbreeze circulation. Areas near the coast east of Galveston Bay will probably be the first (where deeper moisture present) then expanding inland and developing west of Galveston Bay along the Highway 59 corridor.
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A weak cold front over the northern great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday.
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 An upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across much of the country including North and Central Texas where one of the hottest days of the year is occurring. Dewpoints have mixed out into the low to mid 60s in most locations which has kept heat index values near or below Heat Advisory criteria.
Meanwhile, the tail end of a mid latitude trough is in the process of cutting off north of the Bahamas. While not reaching down to the lowest levels, it will disrupt the lower level ridge, along with bringing with it a component of confluent lower level flow across South Florida and the Keys.
Mesoscale analysis indicated that the best instability with surface based CAPE values from 1500-4000+ J/Kg was in place along and south of this warm front. The upper level low/trough moves eastward across North Dakota on Saturday, providing a series of upper level impulses that will support the several rounds of thunderstorms expected this afternoon through tonight and into Saturday. Saturday afternoon the upper level trough is moving through central North Dakota, and lingering thunderstorms would be over and exiting the James Valley by late afternoon/early evening.
This is due to the persistent Pacific Northwest trough starts to shift eastward and broad ridging spreading into the region. Highs this afternoon will be noticeably warmer than in recent days, reaching around normal levels for this time of year.
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this evening. A secondary cold front will move through on Saturday and push offshore Saturday night.
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 High pressure dominates the region's weather today providing sunshine and heat. With lower dwpt air arriving combined with strengthening subsidence as high pressure builds in behind the departing front.
The relatively cool weather pattern is at an end for a while as the Pacific Northwest trough starts to shift eastward and upper level ridging over the south and central plains expands into the region. Light northerly winds over the northern and central Sacramento Valley and the surrounding foothills will bring warmer temperatures to those areas, with some spots remaining in the mid 60s to around 70.
We will remain in northwest flow situated between the broad ridge/trough pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. With dewpoints staying in the low 70's over Ohio, heat indices will approach 100.
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that a weak trough was moving southward out of western Kentucky and an area of showers/storms were developing along and ahead of the boundary.
Concur with deterministic output that the upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary yet with a gradual weakness in the 500mb heights over the CWA/MSA during the period. Expect diurnal/noctural convection during the period yet mainly isolated coverage when considering the upper ridge.
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight.
Warmer mid level temps are forecast to slowly move into far western AZ later today. The axis of strong high pressure will shift over or just south of the forecast area today through Saturday.
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A strong high pressure system centered off the mid Atlantic coast will continue to cause a southerly flow of hot and humid air across our area today. A weak cold front will move south across lower Michigan today and into northern portions of Indiana and Ohio tonight, possibly causing scattered thunderstorms in our area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, which combined with the high humidity, will result in heat index readings over 100 across much of the area. Debris high clouds should continue to thin across the area allowing for good surface warming into the lower 90s. Temps should be a few degrees warmer than yday with more aftn sunshine.
The large upper high center that was located near Oklahoma the past several days has slightly retrograded westward and is now located over New Mexico. As a result, the trough over the western Atlantic has slightly deepened and is expected to close off into an upper low by Saturday and move slowly westward toward Florida. On the surface, a broad area of high pressure near Bermuda ridges back west southwest over the southeast U. Temperatures will be around average to slightly above for July with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. The only exception will be along the coast where the sea breeze pushes in and areas that see the highest chances of thunderstorms.
605 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will pass through the commonwealth during the morning and midday hours.
313 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A short wave trough currently moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions is propelling a surface cold front east out ahead of it. Temperatures across our area vary from the low to mid 60s where light southwest winds and plenty of cloud cover are in place, to the upper 40s in a few sheltered valleys that have decoupled and remained under a thinner veil of clouds. These showers will dry up by this afternoon, as high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley. Highs will be cooler today, ranging from the mid 60s north, to the lower 70s south.
Ahead of the boundary there were a few weak upper waves that pass, aiding in convection development along the lower end of the boundary. Clouds may keep areas from Crossett to Cleveland slightly cooler than they have been for the past few days.
416 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area early this morning.
318 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 315 AM CDT A brief shot of cooler than normal air greets us this morning, but just as quick as it moved in it will retreat Friday. The upper trough responsible for the cold air is quickly pivoting northeastward across the central Great Lakes early this morning. Gradual dry advection this morning and full sun this afternoon should assist dew points to the lower to mid 30s for most of the area. BMD 311 AM CDT Northwest winds to around 30 kt continue early this morning behind a cold front, but should gradually diminish through the day as high pressure builds towards the region.
Tomorrow, guidance is pretty unanimous in digging the upper trough as it passes by, which would better support vertical motion, but also appears to stall out the front or even drag it back up towards North Texas, resulting in better rain chances generally north of our area. After this trough rolls by, expect midlevel ridging to take hold again, with subsidence and decreasing column moisture likely to succeed in restricting rain potential.
Warmer Today. It will be a warmer day today with highs reaching the lower 70s across the Plains. A weak disturbance will cross through southern Colorado today, and could set off an isolated shower over the higher terrain, but the window of opportunity is fairly brief, as the trough axis shifts into KS by 00Z. Models indicate a patch of high clouds crossing SE CO late tonight, but otherwise it will be clear enough that overnight temps will fall into the lower 40s and possibly upper 30s over the Plains, and below freezing for the high valleys. By the end of the period, the pattern will amplify and it will likely get cooler. Max temps will run 15F or warmer most locations. These critical conditions may also occur across the plains as latest guidance is indicating breezier conditions across the lower elevations.