Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some of the short term models are hinting at possible isolated convection over the higher terrain of southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Otherwise expect continued modest cooling into Sunday as an upper trough approaches the offshore waters and strengthens the onshore flow as the marine layer will likely deepen to around 2000 feet.
At this time, the fog should develop and dissipate over a short period of time as the cold front and drier air advects into the area during the next few hours. High pressure near the surface will continue to advect drier air at low levels into the region later today through at least Sunday night.
A longer wave length upper level trough across the east central conus will deepen this afternoon as a upper trough digs southeast from south central Canada into the Great Lakes States.
High temperatures will be ranging from the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s interior and west coast metro areas.
Dry and warmer weather continues through the weekend as high pressure builds overhead.
In the meantime, look for significantly cooler, drier air to begin filtering into Middle Tennessee as high pressure builds over the central Plains.
418 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions.
649 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front crosses the local area today.
Today Through Sunday Night A cold front was situated south of Arkansas this morning. A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the United States will push high pressure into Arkansas from the north.
651 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A trough of low pressure will remain across the Great Lakes today and tonight. Sunday a cold front will swing east across the region.
Any subsidence on the backside of the trough will likely keep the forecast area fairly quiet through the remainder of the day.
Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens across the east central US with southwest flow over the northeast. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures tonight, with lows in the 50s.
210 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front sweeping through this morning returning comfortable humidity levels to the area. Light to moderate rainfall will continue to shift eastward this morning following the low. Much drier air evident on the low- level water vapor imagery to our west is quickly eroding the western edge of the rain as the low departs. The cold front will move through later this morning, leaving in its wake lower dewpoints and clearing skies. The presence of a broad upper-level trough will dominate the short term, bringing progressively cooler temperatures and afternoon rain chances.
Meanwhile, looking upstream, a surface cold front was located well north of this current convection or somewhere near the Middle Red River Valley of N TX into Southeast Oklahoma and South Central Arkansas. While the sfc cold front should make steady progress southward today/tonight, the 850mb boundary will be much slower to push southward in the wake of the sfc boundary. Its not until we can push this elevated boundary through the region that we can eliminate pops and for that reason, kept slight chance/chance pops tonight through Sunday with the highest chance pops across our southern most zones both periods.
Lowering freezing heights through the weekend may eventually lead to a chance of some small hail in some of the low topped convection, which would be more possible on Sunday than on Saturday.
658 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions.
Upper ridging continues to be anchored over the desert SW while a trough sits over the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. At the surface, cool high pressure is in place east of the Rockies with generally light NE to E boundary layer flow.
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cooler, less humid, and breezy conditions will be in store for the weekend.
633 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cooler, less humid, and breezy conditions will be in store for the weekend.
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ A cold front that is unusually strong for late June is continuing to move south across southeast Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon.
Also watching the compact upper low moving southeast across eastern ND. This upper low will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air, especially for eastern areas. Highs will be well below normal with readings only in the low to mid 60s over the far eastern CWA. Warmer temps aloft and good mixing will allow western areas to reach the low 70s.
427 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Today through Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough axis over the Central CONUS. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s. Lows for tonight will be from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south.
Another bonus today will be much less wind than yesterday; winds today will trend SEly as high pressure begins to weaken, but they will remain 10 mph or less with a weak pressure gradient forecast. All zones will remain dry through the daylight hours, with surface ridging keeping instablity absent.
Currently, upper level low is dropping southeast through eastern ND. Forcing from the low is producing an area of showers extending back into central ND. Tonight will be another cool night with high pressure building over the state behind the exiting upper low.
Increasing precipitable water values will occur within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today as 500 mb low pressure with an associated inverted trough moves closer to the western Gulf of Mexico.
have kept the highest pops from Atlanta to Athens this morning. and then spreading the higher pops into central GA by this afternoon. The upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes should help push the front into south GA during Sunday.
Because surface winds have veered more to a southwest direction, the wind flow has become more unidirectional and lessened the low level directional shear. As the remnants of Cindy pulls off to the northeast towards the mid- Atlantic states, a cold front will get pulled southward tonight and into extreme north Alabama by sunrise Saturday. The presence of the cold front will keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across north Alabama overnight. Band of showers (with a thunderstorm in the vicinity of TCL) ahead of a cold front will continue to impact the northern sites during the overnight hours, eventually sinking southward towards MGM/TOI around sunrise. Additional showers/storms will develop ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon, but may stay just south of BHM/TCL where the PROB30 was removed.
Otherwise, there is a chance for accumulating rains across most of the forecast area, but the highest threat will be across north-central WI closest to the wave aloft.
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Broad mid level troughing will grip the Great Lakes region throughout the upcoming weekend. The subsequent suppression of the mean thickness field under prevailing deep layer west-northwest flow will maintain a cooler and less humid resident environment during this time. The combination of cooler mid level temperatures and near surface diabatic heating will establish a steep lapse rate environment for substantial diurnal cu growth today. MLCAPE reaches upwards of 800 J/KG, perhaps sufficient to generate a deep enough updraft to support small hail given the lower freezing levels.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CENTER OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS AREA IS ACTUALLY SEEING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THIS MORNING THANKS TO LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WHICH HAS REDUCED THE ADIABATIC WARMING AFFECT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
226 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will drop southeast across the area this evening and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. Cold front is crossing CWA, while Tropical Depression Cindy was centered over east central Kentucky and is forecast to eject northeast tonight. An upper level trough axis is pushing directly overhead. As this occurs the cold front will move across the area late this evening, bringing an end to precip. The cold front will then clear the area early Saturday morning. Right behind the cold front winds will pickup briefly as strong CAA moves in. Cool temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs on Sunday from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s far south.
A surge of drier air behind the cold front is making its way into central Kentucky, and in its wake it has cleared any fog that developed this morning. Some drier air behind the cold front is just now working its way into Dubois/Orange counties and is scouring out any fog that has developed. Surface analysis reveals a cold front has nearly cleared the CWA at this hour, with the Lake Cumberland region just now starting to see a wind shift to the northwest. Cooler and drier air has filtered in behind the front, allowing for some clearing skies this morning. A rather pleasant weekend is in store as cooler and drier air continue to funnel in from the west and northwest.
648 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front crosses the local area today.
448 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Showers will exit central Pennsylvania this morning as a cold front pushes eastward across the region. Drier and cooler air with comfortable humidity will arrive and last through much of the coming week. Cold front now pushing into the central and north central mountains with a final broken line of showers, which will exit eastern areas by 12z. Afternoon highs should range from the mid 70s north to the lower to middle 80s southeast. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Highs will be several degress cooler throughout. Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.
524 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front sweeping through this morning returning comfortable humidity levels to the area. The cold front will move through this morning, leaving in its wake lower dewpoints and clearing skies. The presence of a broad upper-level trough will dominate the short term, bringing progressively cooler temperatures and afternoon rain chances.
Another bonus today will be much less wind than yesterday; winds today will trend SEly as high pressure begins to weaken, but they will remain 10 mph or less with a weak pressure gradient forecast. All zones will remain dry through the daylight hours, with surface ridging keeping instablity absent. Saturday night into Sunday will see the upper pattern remain unchanged with a large upper trough over the eastern half of the country while a ridge sits over the west. This will leave the Central Plains under a northwest flow regime as the lee trough gradually deepens enough to kick high pressure eastward.
The current situation has a long wave trough settling into the MS Valley with a jet segment and PV anomaly through IA in the base of the trough. The upper low over ND this morning will advance into the Upper MS Valley by 00z bring anomalously cold mid level temperatures. Any weak convection should dissipate quickly into the early evening hours with loss of heating giving way to mostly clear skies overnight in subsidence behind the upper low.
234 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front crosses the local area today.
Looking at surface observations there's still plenty of juice to work with as dewpoints have only "dropped" into the lower to middle 70s. The cold front is expected to be over the area Saturday morning and a weak disturbance moving along the front out of the OK/TX area could generate some showers and storms during the day Saturday. This will be a welcome change from the high humidity values we have had over the past few days. Temps remain in the low to mid 80s for highs on Saturday but overnight lows Saturday into Sunday drop down to around 60 degrees. This will keep temps on the cooler side for this time of year with values only in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
518 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will cross the region today then exit the coast early tonight.
Broad mid level troughing will grip the Great Lakes region throughout the upcoming weekend. The subsequent suppression of the mean thickness field under prevailing deep layer west-northwest flow will maintain a cooler and less humid resident environment during this time. The combination of cooler mid level temperatures and near surface diabatic heating will establish a steep lapse rate environment for substantial diurnal cu growth today. MLCAPE reaches upwards of 800 J/KG, perhaps sufficient to generate a deep enough updraft to support small hail given the lower freezing levels.
Strong high pressure aloft will return to the region tomorrow.
620 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A trough of low pressure will remain across the Great Lakes today and tonight. Sunday a cold front will swing east across the region.
Cool night still in store with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Cool and breezy conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper trough sits over the region. The upper flow through the next few days will be mainly northwesterly with a trough to the east and a slowly eastward migrating ridge to our west. Looking at mainly dry conditions with slow moving high pressure to our south blocking us from gulf moisture and keeping the low level flow out of Canada which will also result in below average temperatures.
Mid level ridging will hold on tonight despite a cold front and supporting mid level trough moving through the Tennessee Valley. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s. This trough will sweep up the remnants of Cindy and slowly push a front through the southeast. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s Saturday night, mid 60s to low 70s as the front begins to pass through Sunday night.
The cold front will slowly move through south Arkansas overnight. The cold front responsible for the severe weather and heavy rain continues to push through southern Arkansas.
The next few days will be characterized by an upper ridge which will keep anti-cyclonic flow over the southwestern states while a broad upper trough over the north-central US maintains cyclonic flow over from the northern Plains to the Atlantic coasts.
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 The remnants of Cindy are interacting with a southward moving cold front this morning with much of the area experiencing shower activity. This general scenario should continue today with the highest rain chances shifting southward through the day.
333 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front has moved through the Midsouth, currently located along a line from Greenwood, MS to Columbus Air Force Base to Jasper, AL. At Walnut Ridge, AR and Pine Bluff, MO, dew points are in the low 60s.
434 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions.
There is a notable shift Sunday night as the ridge begins to flatten as it starts to move into central Montana. This allows a lee side trough to begin forming along the leeside of the Canadian Rockies and the easterly surface flow becomes more southerly across the western sections of the region. This allows temperatures to be slightly warmer overnight.
1115 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Broad upper trough remains across the central CONUS today with an upper level just north of North Dakota. Base of the upper trough/jet is pushing across East River into the upper Midwest. Temps Sunday will be 3-6 degrees warmer than Saturday. Warmer air will advect in for the beginning of the work week as southerly return flow sets up.
quite a bit of moisture in the 850-700mb layer spreads east during the day and with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 70s to near 80 (west to east) generate quite a bit of cloudiness and possibly some rain showers. High temperatures remain below normal with mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to upper 50s.
339 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Hardly any change in the forecast as high pressure, to our south, remains in control. The ridge axis of the high reaches from Arizona up through Nevada and into Oregon. Another sunny day in store with a few cumulus expected over the higher terrain but coverage will be minimal. The ridge of high pressure will remain centered in southern Arizona and extending along the California coast on Sunday night, resulting in a mild and dry end to the weekend. Going into the new work week, a broad upper level low will begin to dig into the northwestern CONUS. This will gradually flatten the ridge over the course of a few days with temperatures moderating, though still remaining above normal for this time of year.
A surface cold front is located as of 24/07Z from roughly north central Texas to the Louisiana/Arkansas border. With the high moisture content and winds at 85H-70H rather light and parallel to the front, convection will be slow moving with the possibility of training.
Strong high pressure and hot weather is the main story for today. The upper ridge is shifting inland over the Pacific Northwest today with the coastal thermal trough following. The upper ridge axis shifts eastward into Idaho on Sunday with a robust upper low approaching the region from the southwest. With a slightly cooler airmass in place and increased cloudiness, temperatures will cool off several degrees, but it will remain HOT. Thunderstorms are possible as the upper low ushers in moist and unstable southerly flow Sunday afternoon and evening, with a continuing chance during the overnight hours.
252 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front crosses the local area today.
245 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front crosses the local area today.
126 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
MVFR CIGs may develop later tonight behind a cold front moving into the area, but with none developing so far (BKN040 is the lowest currently seen in the TX Panhandle) will keep CIGs at VFR for now and AMD if needed. Meanwhile flow aloft is from the nw with model indications of a minor shrtwv trof. Convective concerns are mostly decreased Sat, except across the Lower Trans Pecos where best SB instability gathers. Mid level pattern will likely exhibit a little more ridging from Tue-Thur with possible presence of mid level theta-e ridge axis Thur, promoting an uptick in precip coverage? Broadening cyclonic mid level flow will attempt to suppress mid level ridge keeping temps in check late in the extended, at least compared to the past week.
The upper ridge will continue to drift westward during the period with a mid level shear axis expected to be quasi-stationary along an axis from southeast Texas to the western Brush Country. Models indicated drier air at the lower levels will push in from the Gulf into the Coastal areas by this evening with convection diminishing over the western Brush Country.
On Sunday, we'll still have some cyclonic flow in the boundary layer along with cold air aloft, so some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected once again, although with ridging starting to work in from the west, would expect things to mainly be near and east of I-35 on Sunday. This looks to be followed by a brief period of westerly upper flow before the western ridge re-asserts itself and we get back into northwest upper flow by the weekend.
317 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Slightly unstable northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge will bring a few showers to the region on Saturday, but mostly dry conditions on Sunday as the ridge axis moves overhead.
307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 An upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and a large trough over the Great Lakes will produce a northwest flow aloft today. The airmass temperature doesn't change much today, but more sun will result in warmer high temperatures. On Sunday upper level high pressure will be centered over southern Arizona. with an upper level trough of low pressure covering much of the central and eastern United States. isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain where greater instability exists.
335 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Challenge will be rain shower placement with passage of upper low and def zone rain band across the northern FA this afternoon. Center of the upper low moving into SE ND this morning with an area of showers heading for the southern Red River valley. Second area of rain expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and northern valley late this morning to early afternoon as band of 700mb Omega slides south with the upper low.
Mixed bag of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby can be expected through tonight as Cindy moves further NE and a cold front approaches from the west. Improving conditions by afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.
321 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front sweeping through this morning returning comfortable humidity levels to the area. Scattered light showers are bi-secting the area ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will move through later this morning, leaving in its wake lower dewpoints and clearing skies. The presence of a broad upper-level trough will dominate the short term, bringing progressively cooler temperatures and afternoon rain chances.
953 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 Low pressure, located over the southern Mississippi Valley early this morning, will track northeast to the Mid Atlantic coast by this evening.
This may yield a period of freezing drizzle, however given the proximity of the lifting profile to the bottom of the dendritic layer, it would seem poorly formed flakes are more likely in the terrain than freezing drizzle at the moment.
Moisture will pool along the front today and tonight before the front retreats as a warm front Sunday.
916 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 High pressure over the Western Atlantic Waters will allow for an light easterly wind flow over South Florida today allowing for both the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland.
Winds will weaken considerably mid to late afternoon, become light/variable for several hours, then back to the south and strengthen to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph overnight as a potent upper level low digs ashore the PAC NW, flow aloft backs from NW-W over the Rockies, a lee trough develops in eastern CO, and the MSLP gradient tightens over the High Plains. Sun/Sun Night: Southerly flow is expected to persist on Sunday as the aforementioned upper low digs SSE into the Intermountain West and a lee cyclone deepens over northeast CO. Further north, high temperatures may be affected by a cold front progged to approach the Tri-State region from the north late Sun afternoon/evening, though recent model guidance suggests fropa will not occur until Sunday evening/night.
Vsbys at the TAF sites have fallen this morning and with the lower cigs and vsbys, expect LIFR to IFR conditions the next few hours, although observations may bounce between categories. Another warm day is in store with temperatures this afternoon reaching into the low 80s, well above normal.
At the surface, a cold front was moving northwest to southeast across western North Dakota, helping to spark off some light snow showers across southeastern Montana, western South Dakota, and extreme southwestern North Dakota. Behind the cold front, high pressure will move into the region and winds will be a bit breezy, mainly across the Missouri and James River valleys. Moderate to strong frontogenetical forcing in the lower levels will overlap strong Q-Vector divergence in the upper levels. Finally, BUFKIT soundings do suggest the potential for some freezing drizzle to mix with snow at times early Sunday morning along and south of I-94.
Local radars indicate that light rain continues to fill in across the state with considerably more rain to the west that is associated with an area of enhanced lift in the base of a broad upper trough. Weak high pressure will build in later today through early Sunday for a brief respite from the unsettled conditions. The high will exit quickly Sunday afternoon with moisture and precipitation chances returning to the south as early as late Sunday morning.