Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 07z/2am surface analysis shows 989mb low over eastern North Dakota with warm front extending southeastward to southern Lake Michigan. As upper ridging continues to build into the Midwest, the warm front will get nudged further northward today. Pressure gradient will increase well ahead of the cold front and with deep mixing taking place to about 6000ft, am expecting wind gusts of 25 to 30mph from late morning through the afternoon.
Dry conditions will prevail tonight, but another quick upper low will bring snow showers to portions of central Indiana tomorrow evening and night. Further out, additional upper waves will continue to rotate through the area in the wake of the main upper trough.
Light precipitation is expected to begin moving into the area late tonight ahead of an approaching and fast moving area of low pressure aloft.
WV imagery shows the west coast ridge remains highly-amplified, and is undercut by the cut-off low just off the coast of Baja. Long-range models bring a trough thru the central CONUS over the weekend, and hint at a weak front cooling things slightly for Sun, but are not in very good agreement on timing/strength attm. What they do agree on is rain chances remaining slim-to-none, as cold fronts prevent return flow from replenishing the very dry AMS in place.
300 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today.
As far as precipitation with this area of low pressure, currently seeing scattered rain showers mainly as this system rotates through.
High pressure will continue to bring cool temperatures and areas of morning fog and frost before a transition to a more typical wet December pattern returns towards the weekend.
334 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the work week.
However, by early morning south winds will already be developing as a low pressure system rapidly approaches from the upper Midwest. Lows tonight in the low to mid 20s. Another cold front to pass east across CWA during Monday afternoon, and thru southeast IL early Monday evening. GFS and GEM models are stronger with upper level trof over area and has qpf over area on Thu along while Ecmwf is weaker with this trof and dry. Upper level trof lingering over Ohio river valley Fri morning finally appears to pull away from IL for the weekend with moderating temperatures.
High temperatures will likely be reached late morning across northern Nebraska, in the lower to mid 40s, then slowly fall as CAA develops during the afternoon hours.
307 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Dormant weather pattern will continue for the seven day forecast period as a blocking ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS remains. As cold modified arctic air masses continue to barrel down the central and eastern CONUS, occassional cold fronts will clip the Panhandles. As is stands current model guidance suggest these will be weak cold fronts and therefore highs will fluctuate between mid to upper 50s on the cooler days and mid 60s to lower 70s on the warmer days.
By mid to late morning and through the afternoon, forcing will increase again as the low moves through the area. A rain/snow mix that may at times be all snow is expected in the highway 20 corridor from Dubuque on east. South of the highway 20 corridor, light rain or sprinkles are expected that may mix with some light snow or flurries during the late afternoon hours.
409 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure along with cold and dry air will remain in control of the region today as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest.
The dominant pattern of an upstream amplified ridge will persist, and will maintain the downstream trough over the Great Lakes region through the bulk of the extended periods. Closer to Thur/Fri, ensembles do begin to indicate the ridge beginning to relax marginally; however, guidance continues the theme of quick clippers skirting the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. likely warming into the low/mid teens by late Tue aftn. Tue ngt-Sat: Troughing will finally begin to lift/pivot east, allowing mid-lvl heights to rise and create more of a diffluent/dry flow aloft. Synoptic snow moving in late tonight into Mon morning will produce a period of IFR conditons ahead of a low pressure system. Behind the low, more lake effect snow kicks in late Mon afternoon/evening impacting the western TAF sites with more IFR/MVFR conditions.
/issued 311 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ High pressure will remain over the Mid South through Monday. The stronger winds combined with dewpoints in the lower 30s and dry fuel moisture levels will lead to elevated fire danger across areas west of the Mississippi River on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be much warmer with highs in the lower to middle 60s. A cold front will move through the region Monday night.
1111 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Large scale flow over the CONUS will be stagnant over the next several days with mean ridging west/trof east.
Well in advance of the cold front was a band of scattered high clouds from the eastern Dakotas into southern WY. Concerning RFW conditions, RHs should remain above the 15 percent threshold over western NE thanks to an early arrival of the cold front. Upstream ridge of high pressure will yield northwest flow through the period.
In the low levels, the former upper-air disturbance mentioned above will be linked to a cold front which will push through the area this morning with strong northwest winds and falling temperatures expected by afternoon.
Ahead of the cold front associated with this low pressure system expect warm air to bulge into the Mid-South as 850 mb temps climb above 10C.
227 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 Imagery shows large scale continuing stagnant pattern in place with amplified blocking ridge west of the Mississippi (axis centered roughly along the west coast), a deep trof east, and WY west of the inflection point but still under nwrly flow aloft. The SFC has strong high pressure still guarding most of the entire wrn CONUS and nearly centered under the the ridge aloft.
Tonight-Wed Night: All of the Great Plains will remain under a very strong NW regime throughout these periods with a deepening upper-deck trough situated over the eastern U. while a strong mid-upper ridge remains parked out west. trough undergoing pronounced cyclogenesis the ridge may get forced slightly west to the Pacific coast. Main story will be strong and gusty northwest winds developing by mid to late morning Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
An upper level trough is currently over the Northern Plains early this morning.
A closed low off the western coast of Baja California is pumping moisture across Mexico and the western half of Texas per water vapor imagery. With the continued pattern of ridging across the western CONUS and a longwave trough in the east, South Central Texas will be under a rather stagnant pattern, allowing highs to warm into the mid 70s Monday after starting cold in the morning. High pressure at the surface will also keep winds light and generally out of the west.
352 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Weak ridging moving through central IL this morning, resulting in some variability in the winds, but generally more southerly flow at the surface.
Rua A relatively benign and a bit cooler than seasonal normal conditions look to be in store for the week ahead as upper level trough remains east of the Mississippi and and an upper level ridge over the west. This pattern will allow for a couple of reinforcing cold fronts to move across.
Light westerly winds will shift to the north-northwest behind a cold front early afternoon. We seem to be stuck in NW flow with a Rex Block type pattern over the western Conus, and a downstream trough across the east with periodic short waves traversing through the NW flow. These disturbances are sending weak cold fronts across our region every couple of days.
/issued 821 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017/ A cold and clear night is expected as high pressure settles in across the Florida peninsula.
335 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through Monday night, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation.
A warm front has moved east of the area allowing temperatures to warm into the the upper 40s and lower 50s. Winds are expected to back southwesterly tonight ahead of a cold front that will move across the area during the day on Monday. Highs tomorrow will climb above normal ahead of the cold front as there will be deep mixing ahead of the front and 850mb temperatures are around +5C.
Plenty of cloud cover today thanks to a low pressure system sitting over Baja California.
As of 20Z Sunday afternoon, stagnant mid-level pattern continues across the CONUS with a large trough in the eastern US and a highly amplified ridge in the west. High temperatures look to range from the low 50s along the KS/NE border, where cloud cover overspreads slightly sooner, to the mid 50s in central KS.
446 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through Monday night, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation.
129 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region through Monday night with temperatures well below normal.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the western United States will allow mild and dry weather to persist over New Mexico this week.
Have mainly rain mentioned today with no ice introduction into the column and surface temperatures warming to above freezing by the time the mainly forcing moves through the area.
Another mid/upper level short wave trough will dig in and a cold front will quickly push through the area late tonight.
1008 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over all of eastern Utah and western Colorado as the region sits on the eastern periphery of a sprawling ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin.
The mean longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will become reinforced late tonight into Monday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight, though a light freeze is still anticipated across interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Highs are expected to reach into the lower to mid 60s.
Critical fire weather conditions return for the far southeast Winds will increase again tomorrow behind a dry cold front dropping through the southeast plains. Temperatures tonight will likely cool efficiently in the higher trapping valleys and took blended model grids down close to colder guidance values for min temperatures(similar to last nights performance).
It also looks like the colder spots will be a little colder than forecast, and areas with drainage winds along the foothills possibly a little warmer. Have refined the low temps to adjust favored valley locations colder tonight. For Monday, a cold front will bring slight cooling to the plains, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than those observed today. ridge is forecast to hold its position to the west of us all week long. By the end of the week the ridge axis will retrograde from a position over Nevada and Idaho to a position over the West Coast.
An upper trough remains in place across the eastern 2/3 of the country this morning. A short wave is pushing southeast across the northern plains as a clipper systems moves around the back side of the trough.
Monday: As the clipper swings through the Great Lakes, an initial cold front will approach the area by daybreak. The other concern for Monday will be with a quick burst of light convective precipitation as colder air aloft, and a secondary cold front, rushes southward. Temperatures should plateau quickly in the morning, falling as stratus and secondary cold front arrive mid-day.
1218 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the work week.
Extending from that, a cold front will push across our area, with the main cold punch coming in during the afternoon.
230 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will extend over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states today through tonight.
The best chances for subfreezing temperatures will exist in counties east of the I-55 corridor. Temperatures will be significantly warmer tomorrow, finally eclipsing average high temperature values at most locations.
250 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 The first half of the forecast continues to be dominated by a strong ridge anchored over the west with high pressure at the surface in Montana. The second half of the forecast is dominated by a breakdown of the ridge, leading to only a modest flattening in the upper-level flow, and re-introducing precipitation chances to the region over the weekend. A significantly stronger trough of low pressure digs into Montana originating from off the northwest coast by the end of the work week. This will work to flatten out the ridge to a degree, even though generally the upper-level flow will remain west-northwest. Otherwise, ridging and high pressure still dominate the weather and dry conditions are expected to continue through the period.
An associated low pressure system at the surface was moving into northwest Minnesota with an increasing pressure gradient across the northern High Plains to the west of the low. This system will track southeast into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by this evening. A cold front will be moving south across western Kansas by around sunrise with northwesterly winds and weak cold air advection increasing behind the front. The light winds and clear skies should result in overnight lows falling into the low/mid 20s, generally around or a few degrees below the cooler MOS guidance. The highly amplified ridge/trough upper flow pattern over North America will continue before breaking down somewhat late in the week as the upper level high pressure along the West Coast retrogrades into the eastern Pacific.
1134 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 The next dry cold frontal passage can be expected Monday as the overall weather pattern remains generally unchanged. A dry cold front will increase southwest winds and veer them to the northwest late in the taf period.
High pressure ridge will sink South of the region Today. The ridge will sink further South Tonight as a cold front approaches from the North. Clouds will begin to return tonight ahead of the approaching front with lows expected to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning.
May also have to watch out for the potential of some light freezing rain, sleet and a rogue lightning strike.
1249 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through Monday night, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation.
At the surface, winds will shift to the southwest by this afternoon which will bring warmer temperatures to the Tri-state region. Temps will be on the order of 10 degrees warmer than they were on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
One half inch to one inch of snowfall accumulation is possible across eastern North Dakota as a cold front brings strong winds and snow chances overnight. Recent NAM guidance suggests low level temperatures will warm to just above freezing this evening before midnight in the Devils Lake - Valley City region.
Temperatures have already fallen near or below freezing for many locales with the warmest spots currently in the mid to upper 30s. Larger scale pattern remains fairly static through the period with ridging dominating the western half of the country and troughing over the east. A couple of decent short waves sweep through the large eastern trough through the upcoming workweek.
After a dry and slightly warmer Mon, the longwave trough that has persisted over the northeast will deepen as a strong jet core enters the backside of the trough.
Expect winds to increase markedly tonight as the cooler air pushes in. There is some mid level moisture just ahead of the surface front and soundings are supportive of snow through the profile down to the lowest few hundred feet though, depending on location, there may be a deep enough warm layer to melt. Over the course of the day, mid level dry air will move in, and low level steep lapse rates don't move high enough to reach the dendritic growth zone so while we may see afternoon shallow cumulus, snow showers are not expected to linger behind the low.
Of note, is a patch of freezing rain that will brush Cass and Crow Wing and maybe Aitkin counties this morning on the tongue of an elevated warm nose.
Hoenisch With an upper level ridge of high pressure to our west, expect mostly sunny skies over the region for the next few days. The exception will be the valleys of Southwest MT, mainly around Helena/ West Yellowstone where some patchy freezing fog could develop towards 12z before thinning around 17z.
Behind the snow band, drying aloft could result in a loss of cloud ice and some light freezing drizzle or a wintry mix. Ice aloft will return by late Monday morning and into the afternoon with a southward moving deformation precipitation band, but with surface temperatures rising to near or slightly above freezing, periods of a wintry mix could continue before all precipitation moves out Monday night. Additional snow accumulation will be minimal Monday afternoon, although winds will increase and shift to the north behind a secondary surface cold front.
227 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Another active weather pattern is forecast for this week as a mean trough remains in place across the eastern half of North America while mean ridging is mainly over the western half of North America. This southerly flow will advect somewhat warmer air northward, but only enough to moderate the temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees today.
/Issued 932 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ Temperatures this evening are quite variable across the area, with some areas already in the lower 30s, and others still in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We should stay several degrees below record highs, as most of those records are in the low to mid 70s for Monday. The wind shift associated with the cold front will be a potential problem for fire suppression efforts.
253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A chilly pattern will continue through this work week with a strong ridge along the west coast and a trough over the east. At least a couple of disturbances will dig into the eastern trough with reinforcing shots of cold air, along with brief chances for light precipitation.
with a dry cold front bringing a wind shift to NRN terminals by Mon afternoon.
An upper ridge remained over the intermountain west and a broad upper trough remained over the easter third of the country. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving southeast into MN and stronger winds were noted on the back side of this low across the northern plains. However winds are expected to shift to the northwest and begin gusting to near 40 MPH by the early afternoon as the low pressure system moves into IL and deepens. Think highs will range from the lower 50s near the NEB state line to near 60 over east central KS.
At the end of the current TAF period, a cold front will bring increasing clouds and a switch to northwest winds.
408 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 A clipper system will track across the lower lakes tonight dragging an arctic front across the forecast area.
1240 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will extend over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states today through tonight.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed pronounced mid-upper tropospheric anticyclone across the western CONUS with ridge poking north well into British Columbia.
This should continue to lead to the warming trend for daytime temperatures, with Monday highs expected to warm into the lower 70s.
That being said dense fog is likely to occur in Roseburg while some freezing fog will be possible across the Rogue Valley. As a result, have left the dense fog and freezing fog advisories as is. High pressure will remain in control over the waters with conditions remaining below small craft advisory levels through mid week.
Therefore, temperatures were lowered by a few degrees across much of the area for tonight, but most locations are still expected to remain just above freezing.
A few high clouds overnight will keep temperatures just a bit warmer overnight, but some areas still expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s with light winds.
409 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Under clear skies and steady northerly winds, temperatures range from the lower to mid 50s in the Upper Keys to the upper 50s in the Lower Keys. Surface wise, an expansive high pressure system is centered over the eastern portion of the long horn state with a ridge reaching across the Gulf of Mexico, and reaching down the spine of the Florida peninsula.
Little has changed in the synoptic pattern across the CONUS with the latest updates, as a highly amplified upper ridge continues to dominate the western half of the U. while a deep trough sits over the east.
some cooler air backs into the area during the day with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east) compared to yesterday. This would support highs in the low to mid 50s which is currently advertised in the forecast.
520 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
828 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A short wave trough moving east along the northern Gulf coast is supporting a large canopy of mid and high level clouds over the forecast area this evening.
1001 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A weak upper low is moving east along the Gulf Coast this evening with high pressure over the southeast. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s to mid 40s. The upper low will continue to move east overnight.
Where the low lying stratus is thick enough, could get a small amount of drizzle/freezing drizzle during the day on Sunday.
MVFR ceilings and gusty southerly winds look to continue ahead of a cold front/dryline approaching from the west. Rain and also thunderstorm chances will become possible during the day with Sunday afternoon over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas having the higher potential.
Elsewhere across cooler waters, expect gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes into Sunday morning. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1877, the high temperature in Key West was 86 degrees.
652 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
920 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
Only have lows dropping off into the low and mid 40s, with continued scattered rain showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
The highest winds will be centered on the caprock into eastern New Mexico. Temperatures will be much cooler than experienced today with a pacific cold front moving through during the morning. This will also serve to shove east the low level thermal ridge potentially somewhat easing a fire weather threat. Afterwards, a stronger cold front will move through Sunday night.
Otherwise, high clouds continue to stream northward, and are now as far north as the highway 2 corridor. With the recent warmer temperatures there is a crust on the snowpack so falling snow would be needed for blowing snow.
The High pressure ridge axis will lift northward towards SC/GA and will usher in a cool onshore flow and expect wide range in Max Temps from near 60 degrees along the coast to near 70 degrees well inland. Light and variable winds 5 to 10 knots will become NE to E and increase to 10-15 knots on Sunday as High pressure ridge over the waters tonight builds North of the waters on Sunday.
02 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure near Columbus GA. IR satellite imagery shows the presence of an upper low moving along the Central Gulf Coast and considerable mid and upper level cloudiness moving to the NE ahead of this feature. While there is a fair amount of lift ahead of the approaching upper low, moisture is at a premium. Even so, it would not be too surprising to see some sprinkles or even light rain overnight across North Florida before the upper low moves east of the region in the morning.