Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 An upper analysis this morning is showing a long wave trough covering much of the continental U. This trough is anchored by a deep low centered where MN, ND, and SD come together. The short wave trough that brought wind to the region yesterday has motored northeastward and is located over MI. This trough will be oriented in a positively-tilted fashion as it crosses the region tonight. This setup will translate to a cold front moving into the northwestern part of the forecast area by about noon today then moving slowly in a southeastward direction through the afternoon, sweeping across the remainder of the area this evening. After a period of mostly sunny skies this morning, the latter trough will spread mid cloud back across the region again late afternoon through the evening.
1047 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Update to cancel the High Wind Warning. Winds remain elevated in the higher elevations of the Guadlupe Mountains.
316 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Ongoing stagnant storm system spinning north of the forecast area near the lower Red River Valley will be primary focus through the next 24 hours. Thus have introduced some patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle into the forecast into this evening, however do not anticipate much additional impact from brief periods of freezing drizzle early this morning.
Elsewhere, snow will be slowly winding down, particularly for the lower elevations. Decreasing cloudiness over northwest Montana may lead to ideal conditions for freezing fog to develop, especially in the Flathead Valley. Periodic snow showers will continue to affect KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN this afternoon; however, afternoon temperatures above freezing will reduce the chances of snow-covered surfaces for elevations below 3500 ft. Light to moderate snow will continue this afternoon and evening as a wave of energy moves through on the back side of the passing upper level trough. Snow intensity will begin to wane significantly overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, though some light snow may continue over the higher terrain.
Southwest winds will begin to increase Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front which will move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. this wave is forecast to move through the CWA with a wind shift out of the northwest and cooler temps behind the boundary.
359 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery shows large upper low pressure center now across the upper Midwest. Surface cold front/wind shift extends from Wichita to near Gage. as cold front moves east across the area this afternoon.
1134 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Weak cold front is pushing into northeast and central Missouri this afternoon with generally clear skies behind it.
1133 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Light southerly winds will shift to the northwest Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through. /issued 323 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ Latest upper air analysis shows a deep/broad closed low centered over eastern North Dakota.
As the closed upper level low pressure center moving into Minnesota ejects east northeast through the evening, strong northwest flow aloft will line up with the Bighorn mountains significantly increasing the flow over northern Johnson county. Tuesday Night Through Monday Cold northwest flow will gradually shift to the east as a high pressure ridge aloft shifts east into western Wyoming.
The low level jet should also result in some gusty winds especially in the higher terrain, though both the 00Z PIT observed and model soundings indicate the strongest winds should remain aloft above an inversion.
Isolated showers mostly clustered around the Upper Keys have rain cooled the area into the lower 70s. The Keys are situated on the northwestern flank of an upper ridge extending from the Yucatan to past the Bahamas, while an amplified trough is aligned over the Rockies. Forecast - Over the next couple of days a trailing ridge axis, associated with the previously mentioned high, will pivot northwards into the Florida Peninsula, resulting in an upward trend in southeasterly flow. The Keys will remain on the northwestern fringe of deep layered ridging aloft and ample warm dry air will remain aloft.
This in line with high resolution model guidance which is dropping warmer air aloft currently over the far northern fa southward into east central ND by morning. Current impulse rotating around upper low impacting mainly the north half of the forecast area. Upper low drifting a bit west now toward Cooperstown. Radar has been showing an area of rain on north and west side of the upper low continuing to move west and northwest with additional rain spreading north to the east of the upper low attm. 850 mb temps remain a bit above zero north of the upper low into northeastern ND back toward DVl basin. Tuesday will see the moisture being cut off from the upper low and a transition to more drizzly weather with patches of wet snow. Temps above freezing so again little impacts anticipated.
09z H5 analysis depicts a potent upper level low situated over the eastern Dakotas, with a trough axis extending southwest from the feature to Arizona. Meanwhile an upper ridge of high pressure was evident just off the eastern seaboard. 09z surface observations around the region indicate generally light winds with temperatures near 50 degrees with low stratus and fog present over the lower half of the FA. A warm front currently over southern Mississippi will move northward today and will be just near the TN and MS border by tonight. With the warm front lifted over northeast Mississippi by the arrival of the front, instability will be conducive for strong to severe storms with guidance suggesting near 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE across portions of NE Mississippi.
but given the low temp/dewpoint depressions already in place. The presence of cirrus and the approaching AC over N TX rounding the base of the broad troughing over the Cntrl/Srn Plains may also keep the patchy FG at bay as well. with temps expected to be some 10-15 degrees cooler Tuesday morning than what was observed this morning. A cold front is still just west of the Arkansas/Louisiana line, but this front will progress eastward this evening.
904 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2016 Dry weather with locally breezy north wind returns this week as high pressure builds along the West Coast.
Yesterday, a combination of morning rainfall (keeping temperatures cooler) and a lack of that northward dew point push kept us from having any widespread severe weather as that line pushed through the mid-state yesterday evening. Again, the NAM is the most agressive with the low-level helicity this evening. Curved hodographs in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere would suggest a tornado potential.
Main upper low centered over North Dakota while minor perturbations within the mean flow are dipping south and east over the desert southwest into the southern plains. One is centered over Iowa while a secondary low pressure is over southern Colorado. With the light winds and strong radiational cooling, lows tonight are seasonable with readings in the lower to middle 30s.
We will be within the dry slot on the southern periphery of a large and stacked closed low, centered over Minnesota. The low will remain in place through the period and gradually fill. The thermal ridge axis will be located southeast of Wisconsin, but close enough to still bring southern Wisconsin rather mild temps for late November. A trough rotating around the low will bring another mid level short wave northeast across Illinois into Lower Michigan. In addition, our far northwest forecast area could see more clouds due to the proximity to the main upper low.
Upper pattern will remain mostly unchanged today and tonight as the large upper low slowly migrates into MN with nw flow aloft remaining over the central Plains. Wintry precip will stay north of the forecast area, closer to the upper low. Even though temps will be a few degrees cooler than Mon, good mixing and downslope will still allow highs to be above normal. Temps on Wed and Thu will be slightly cooler but will still be close to seasonal normals.
For today, a dry cold frontal passage will pass by from northwest to southeast. Low-level cold air advection will bring in even cooler (though seasonable) weather for tomorrow. Expect most locations to drop to at least freezing, with a hard freeze likely north of I-40.
Low-level moisture axis supporting clouds as far west as Indiana should slowly erode as clouds work through the southeast half of the CWA and dewpoints fall into the low 40s by this aftn.
The axis of the cold core upper trough over central Utah at mid-evening will continue to the southeast and exit the state late tonight. Organized precip along the trough axis will thin out a bit later this evening as the trough exits off to the southeast.
The cold front now in northwest Arkansas will slowly work through the state tonight. Expect a few showers across the south late in the period associated with the next cold front. The cold front is just entering northwest Arkansas with the drier air behind it. The low clouds and fog will not dissipate until the dry air is able to push it out.
Adjusted Tuesday morning forecast lows downward by several degrees in the high valleys of southwest MT, including West Yellowstone, per trends in surface observations and the latest available consensus of model guidance.
During the day though frontogensis will occur over the area, as another piece of energy rotates around the amplified trough axis to our west aloft.
903 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 Radars and web cameras are showing some snow in the high mountains right now. Models keep, at least light snow going in the high country all night. Can't rule out a few flurries by Tuesday morning on the eastern plains with second surge of mid level moisture, but overall looks like another mostly cloudy and brisk day with temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
Thunderstorms may still be affecting portions of North Central Louisiana at the end of the TAF period as another cold front advances across the region. but given the low temp/dewpoint depressions already in place. The presence of cirrus and the approaching AC over N TX rounding the base of the broad troughing over the Cntrl/Srn Plains may also keep the patchy FG at bay as well. with temps expected to be some 10-15 degrees cooler Tuesday morning than what was observed this morning.
Wind shift with weak cold front is about to move into northern terminals at this time. Southwest and west surface winds will shift to northwest with the passage of a cold front late this evening and tonight. /Issued 251 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ One upper trough will push across the Panhandles tonight and another will move across the forecast area by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front will move through the Panhandles late tonight and early Tuesday with dry conditions continuing through at least the middle of the week.
305 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Mid/upper level low pressure currently located over the northern plains and upper Midwest will gradually progress eastward today and tonight. The highs will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Despite the cloud cover a slightly cooler air mass will be in place causing lows to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s.
The cold front that moves through tonight will have better dynamics as it will be colocated with the strong upper trough that will be swinging through.
Cold air continues to fill into the region tonight with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s as northwest winds of 7 to 12 mph are expected to continue overnight and prevent temperatures from falling into the lower 20s/upper teens. The models bring a complex and cold upper trough into western Canada and the northwest portion of the country. Model timing at the mid and upper levels is almost completely out of phase which has significant affects on how fast to bring in a strong cold front Monday and Monday night. So it is possible that high temperatures on Monday could be much cooler than what the blend has in there. However, by late Monday night into Tuesday the models start agreeing on the low level thermal field.
1129 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Very large and deep low pressure system is slowly moving west across eastern North Dakota late this afternoon. As it makes this loop it will inch close enough to the area to bring some accumulating snow to far northwest Nebraska, primarily the Pine Ridge in Sheridan county eastward into far northwest and north central Cherry county. Moist north flow aloft will be favorable for an upslope type snow event along the Pine Ridge into northwest and far northern Cherry county. Temperatures Tuesday will be colder (mainly 30s to near 40 degrees) as a secondary cold front moves through the area ushering in the colder air to our north.
The rain was occurring near a cold front moving east through Kentucky. Its initial cold front trying to pass through at our latitude is becoming oriented nearly parallel to the upper level flow, and is slowing down and losing its identity. Instead, another upper level impulse rotating around the large scale low/trough will support a second cold front moving in from the west tonight. Forecast soundings suggest it will be mainly elevated, but show some potential to become briefly surface based just ahead of the cold front.
Wk instability confined to trof axis. Deep low pressure over SE North Dakota was making its impacts felt as far east as the Great Lakes where surge of anomalously moist air was heading north into the region.
Convection will break out over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon, then spread into south central Kentucky this evening. Guidance max temps in the 60s look like a good bet, and min temp forecast is on the high end of guidance as some parts of south-central KY may be hard pressed to dip below 60 tonight. Latter half of the week looks quiet for the Ohio Valley, with zonal flow aloft, but low-level flow out of the W-NW as high pressure trying to build in from the west meets resistance from the weakening low over the Great Lakes.
335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this morning with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico. As this trough moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary trough moves down the West Coast. This will come around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a cold front through the area.
1148 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties.
Upper low spreading bands of -SN into the CWA early this morning with distinct upslope/downslope/downstream convergence signatures on KUDX WSR-88D. Today and this evening, upper low moves little and weakens a bit.
High clouds in advance of the system are moving overhead with the low clouds and stratus finally clearing lifting over the central part of the CWA in the JKL vicinity.
Upper trough will approach the region from the west overnight.
407 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Tonight and Saturday, Showers are occuring this afternoon mainly over areas north of the Highway 82 corridor.
Look for temperatures to be a few degrees cooler today.
110 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Cool yet mostly clear conditions can be expected today through tonight as high pressure takes over the region. Warmer air will return over the weekend.
a lee trough will develop and help strengthen southwest winds late this morning through the afternoon with some gusts as high as 35 mph. The combination of downsloping winds and a drier airmass approaching will result in good mixing through the day and temperatures quickly warming into the low to mid 80s.
321 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 An upper level trough over the Tennessee and Mississippi River Valleys will continue to deepen as it gradually moves east tonight. A moderately strong short wave associated with the trough has been producing showers and scattered thunderstorms in that area today and this will continue tonight. will continue to ridge south into Georgia through Saturday night.
The high wind highlights are doing well and will continue them until expiration. The first weather system passes through the region later tonight along with the cold front. Highs on Saturday will be cooler east of the divide, with the best cooling in the west.
Upper level ridge will settle over the area on Saturday.
Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue behind the cold front that passed earlier today. The next warm front will move through the region on Saturday so widespread rain can be expected by the afternoon. This second weather system will have a lot of moisture for this time of year so rain total will really start to add up in the high terrain and other favored locations.
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure today. Very weak warm front crosses Saturday.
Still may be a chance of an isolated shower into the early evening over the southern areas; otherwise, building high pressure aloft will lower the rain chances tonight.
157 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will settle along the Atlantic coast.
656 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build off to our east, settling over the Atlantic coast.
An upper level ridge will move in behind the short wave and dominate our weather for the next few days. In addition, we will see warmer temperatures.
The trough axis will slowly move east overnight, with shower activity coming to an end.
Much of the low level moisture is already in place. however upstream dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s may arrive through the night with some patchy fog hard to rule out.
641 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area for the start of the weekend.
Weak ridging builds in from the west on Saturday, so we will see a good warm-up with plenty of sun.
A strong upper level low, currently near 48N/127w, is still expected to lift northeast across Vancouver Island into central British Columbia today and this evening. This system's cold front moved through overnight, and the steady rain with this front has now exited northeast Oregon and southeast Washington. This cold front was responsible for some localized strong wind squalls as it moved through.
Slightly cooler Saturday with westerly winds and highs in the 60s.
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build off to our east, settling over the Atlantic coast.
As such, showers and an occasional thunderstorm will continue across the region, but will become less widespread and more focused over eastern portions of the CWA by the afternoon hours as the upper trough is progressive. Along and ahead of the trough axis an area of showers and thunderstorms is resulting in light to moderate rainfall. this morning, warming into the low to middle 70s across most of the region. A Ridge will build Over the Southern Plains.
Low- level trough axis is over the Rockies area, producing some breezy southerly winds across the CWA. Southwesterly winds will increase today as trough crosses the region, bringing in warm and dry air. Clouds will increase throughout the day as trough passes through, and winds will shift to the northwest with a cool front this evening. Significantly cooler yet still near to above average temperatures are expected for Saturday, with cool high pressure overhead. Another low-level trough will approach the region overnight.
306 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build toward the region today. The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
The cooler air advection behind the cold front and zonal flow aloft will drops highs Saturday closer to seasonal norms.
Anticipate that increasing subsidence/return of the influence of the upper ridge over the CWA/MSA will preclude convection Saturday.
At the surface, gusty southerly winds are in place, with the CWA sitting east of a trough axis over the High Plains. Temps are warmer today than yesterday, with 3 pm obs ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the mid 70s in the southwest. Models are in pretty good agreement showing low amplitude west-southwesterly flow aloft across the area through much of this time frame, set up between broad high pressure over the southern CONUS and periodic waves moving across the north.
Winds should mix down across the lower elevations a little sooner and San Luis Valley appears to have a better shot of hitting Red Flag criteria.
Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a trough off the west coast and weak ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was off to the east and our area was in southerly low level flow. Will be a little more optimistic on temperatures for Saturday, with highs mainly in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Cold front moving through west central Montana shifting eastward and as this pushes the leeside trough off the continental divide expect to see decreasing winds this evening. Downslope is eating away most of the low level precipitation over the plains but as the cold front shifts east tonight it will allow a few showers to reach the ground. Post frontal environment on Saturday will be cooler and still breezy and there is a window where another round of gap flow winds will set up around midday but lack of a critical layer at mountain top and a modest mixing layer should keep winds from becoming too strong.
251 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Canadian high pressure will extend across central NC through the weekend. 12Z upper air analysis depicts low level cold air advection in progress across central NC, a result of a passage of a surface cold front earlier this morning. 850mb temps upstream are 5-10 degrees C cooler.
246 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will crest over New England tonight.
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure today. Very weak warm front crosses Saturday.
The western half of Minnesota has seen a lot of sunshine this afternoon, but high clouds will be on the increase over the next few hours and there is a good chance the low stratus deck will gradually expand westward tonight. There is a moist layer aloft between 15-20kft which is the result of cirrus clouds approaching from the mid-upper jet, but also a saturated layer in the lowest 2-3kft. The soundings are also very dry above this saturated layer, so if the lift isn't strong enough to grow drizzle/rain drops in the lowest 2-3kft, then precipitation won't happen until late in the day Saturday when deeper moisture arrives near the advancing front - along with weak instability. The low clouds should linger through the day tomorrow.
Some areas could see the low temperature being as warm/mild as the climatological normal high for this time of year! There is also a cold front poised to work southeast across the northern plains tonight into Saturday. The slightly cooler airmass left in its wake will yield high temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s on light northwest winds on Saturday. but eventually diverge in amplitude as the longwave trof migrates into the central and eastern CONUS towards the end of the work week.
Short term models, particularly the GFS/ECMWF in good agreement developing a low overnight and holding trough/low west of forecast area. High pressure over the Great Lakes region this morning continues to shift east with Cold Air damming setting up by late this morning. Guidance temperatures are trending cooler with easterly winds and CAD, and look good with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly in the lower 60s.
still think good chance for the cooler locales will come up to forecasted conditions. southerly gradient persists out ahead of lee- side trough. This trough will begin to shift eastward overnight giving the area a shift to more WNW winds to start the day off on Saturday. Some fog may develop in eastern areas closest to ridge axis to the east. Cloud cover combined with WSW gradient will keep overnight lows above normal in the lower to mid 50s. warmest zones in the east ahead of trough.
125 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 Canadian high pressure will extend across central NC through the weekend. 12Z upper air analysis depicts low level cold air advection in progress across central NC, a result of a passage of a surface cold front earlier this morning. 850mb temps upstream are 5-10 degrees C cooler.