Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST BREEZE AND FALLING DEW POINTS. COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90. BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE AIR.
THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COAST.
This is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of the southern CONUS today. Tonight in Friday we will begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the lee side of the upper ridge.
153 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT TO OUR NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM AT AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUGGEST MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS BUT.
323 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected over the next several days as upper-level high pressure currently over the southern Plains continues to retrograde westward and brings northwest flow back across the region. At the surface, high pressure will drift very slowly to the east, allowing light southerly winds and a bit more moisture to seep back into the region beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, bringing dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, and max heat indices back into the mid to upper 90s most afternoons. A few disturbances may ride down the ridge and into the region during the forecast period, but will be somewhat difficult to pin down both spatially and temporally.
NIGHTTIME HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE EVEN OVER THE FAR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY STRETCH FROM AZ/NM/TX TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. ON SUN/SUN EVENING A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
348 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS TODAY DUE TO STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT PLUS A MARINE LAYER NOW AROUND 1750 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S INLAND.
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS. AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.
1124 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
255 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT FOR THE BLUE MOON WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES.
STUCK WITH THE WRF-ARW SOLUTION, WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EAST/WEST LINE BISECTING DODGE CITY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY, WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SHOWN BIAS IN THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT SOLUTIONS.
GOING A BIT WARMER FOR TOMORROW THAN WOULD HAVE THOUGHT. DID GO A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN TODAY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WITH A TROUGH ACROSS MT/ND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD. TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SWING BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK 700-850MB THETA-E RIDGE. COULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON -TSRA ROOTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ABOUT 500J/KG MLCAPE.
AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS THIS LOWER LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN FL COAST ACCOMPANIED WITH AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO MIGRATE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TODAY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY SLOWLY AMPLIFIES THROUGH 84 HOURS.
A moderately strong ridge high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Starting tomorrow, lower valleys in central Idaho, like the lower Hells Canyon area will begin to see highs above the 100F mark. Many valleys of western Montana will see highs in the lower to mid 90s.
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENSURE THIS FACT. EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEST RIDGE/EAST TROUGH CONFIGURATION IS UNDERWAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE GFS TRIES TO BUILD THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
144 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under ridging aloft.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.
WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE REGION FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
239 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH THIN CIRRUS WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT NE WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NOT MUCH IF ANY CU FIELD ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SPARKED CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST.
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. RW MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT TO OUR NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
231 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO 105 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, THEN RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRIDAY.
114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS BACK DOORING INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ THIS HOURS TEMPERATURE READINGS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW HOT SPOTS IN THE MID 90S. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LINGERING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED CLOUD-COVER AND CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
314 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT COOLER. THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW PW'S WILL ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
200 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG TROUGH AXIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND STILL SEASONAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ (TODAY AND TONIGHT) THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORNING LOWS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DEWPOINTS WILL TRY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THIS LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ALSO LIMITING HEAT INDICES. KEEPING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH/BOUNDARY OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. RODRIGUEZ 356 AM CDT GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT REINFORCES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
406 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
123 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND PLEASANT. OTRWS ENLARGED SHRT TERM DIURNAL TO ACCOUNT FOR XPCD DECENT MIXING THIS AFTN AND DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT W/A LEAN TWD WARMER MOS MAX TEMPS/COOLER MINS TONIGHT. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A SOMEWHAT TURBULENT PATTERN AS SEVERAL WAVES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS TAKE AIM ON THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
402 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON'S BAY.
WITH TSRA MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE LFK/MLU/ELD TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE TROUGH. /ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WELL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER INLAND AREAS. WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EVER-SO SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH BUT STILL A GENERAL SELY STEERING FLOW WITH SURFACE WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. LOWS BARELY GOT DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SHOWERS WERE FORMING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND MOVING RAPIDLY NE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF 10 AM MST. A WARM FRONT LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE IN MEXICO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS AND RAPIDLY FILLS IN.
Dry air will continue to filter into the area from the north tonight, as high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes. By Friday, high pressure will push east into the eastern Great Lakes and eventually New England. At the same time, the upper low that has been spinning over northern Mexico for several days will finally start to (slowly) move north across the Gulf Coast.
1122 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING. SHOULD FINALLY START TO SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SPREAD NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MX. BUT FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LVL SE FLOW PULLS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE INTO AREA.
The western edge of deep layer ridging will continue to prevail locally through tonight.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING.
Moderate to Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through This Deep closed upper low continues to spin over northeastern Mexico, feeding a firehose of deep tropical moisture northward up the lower Mississippi Valley. Northern stream disturbance continues to make slow but steady progress across the Upper Midwest, starting to shear some of that moisture plume farther northeast up the Ohio Valley, and driving a cold front into southern Illinois and Indiana. Max temps in the mid/upper 60s look good for Friday, but enough breaks in the clouds could allow northern sections to get a bit warmer. Friday night the moisture starts to recover, with a warm front lifting north into Kentucky ahead of the ejecting upper wave.
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE DEPARTING US TODAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO TEXAS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. 00 GUIDANCE COME IN A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN SEEING. WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. MID/UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPONSOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
316 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
The heavy rain should work southward later tonight and Friday, as the ridging aloft builds in from the southeast and the closed low over northern Mexico shifts eastward into Southeast Texas, disrupting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (via the enhancement of convection in the western Gulf).
928 AM MST THU MAR 10 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL YIELD WARMER HIGHS TODAY. EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
AND FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER LATER TODAY BEFORE DEPARTING EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN COMBINED WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
UPPER RIDGE IS BEING NUDGED OFFSHORE AS DEEP CLOSED LOW FROM MEXICO MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN. BUT WILL BE MADE UP FOR WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY. MOST PLEASANT RIDGE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WON'T BE ANY INTRUSION OF POLAR AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME LIFT WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT GENERATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH AND WEST.
There has been light showers associated with this trough in northwest KS this morning. This means the minimum RH values could reach the lower 20 percent range mainly along and near a line from Herington to Seneca.
221 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
LARGER UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO STREAM CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GENERALLY JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TRACK OF THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUR LARGE LUMBERING TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY CONTINUES TO CHURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN INTO CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALOWING FOR FOCUS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT SLOWS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
1250 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET. /ISSUED 1011 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET, BUT BREEZY TODAY. /ISSUED 406 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016/ HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA AS A VERY STRONG/DEEP MID/UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FLORIDA AND ALL THE WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THE MEXICO LOW PUMPS COPIOUS MOISTURE AND FLOODING RAIN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF TEXAS, FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE PROTECTIVE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN IT.
Think we'll stay cooler today than the past couple of days with the clouds and light rain as well as northerly flow behind the cold front. Stuck fairly close to cooler members of guidance for highs which puts temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.