Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increasing amplitude to the low level thermal trough with 850 temps dropping to -2 to -5c by morning. Low level thermal trough persists into Friday though mid level cyclonic flow eases a bit Friday afternoon. An Upper level trough over Minnesota and the eastern central Plains digs as it moves into Wisconsin tonight with the downstream jet moving off. As the 700mb trough axis moves east downward motion dominates south central this afternoon and southeast this evening. Widespread frost with some freezing temperatures south central, with lesser frost potential closer to Lake Michigan where north winds will stay up.
1152 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain later today and into Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. High precipitable water values, slowly crossing low pressure and associated ascent should result in enough flood potential for a watch. Otherwise, a warm front should continue to lift north across the region today as developing low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
A cold front is still expected to move across the forecast area this afternoon with an increase to the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area. /EC/ Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the area this morning as mid level clouds expand ahead of an approaching cold front. North-northwesterly wind gusts will bring drier and much cooler temperatures behind the front tonight with temperatures dropping well into the 50s.
Post frontal showers and storms have moved generally east of the highway 65 corridor early this morning. Some drizzle or light shower activity can't be ruled out later this morning and into the afternoon, especially near the Highway 54 corridor as a vort lobe from the passing short wave moves overhead.
513 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows trough in place across the central US, with main mid-upper level circulation near central Nebraska. Trough transitions east of our region today, with H5 ridge building across the Rockies an into the plains.
720 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Digging upper trough and fairly sharp short wave sweep into the region by late this afternoon. Associated cold front enters the northwest by late in the daytime period. Strong northwest flow pattern sets up Friday with cooler and drier airmass quickly sweeping across the forecast area on gusty northwest winds. it appeared we would may have a deep closed upper low that would keep precip chances in through the first half of the weekend. Nothing of the sort is advertised now though with a progressive frontal passage allowing for upper low to transition to the Carolinas and dry air to filter in quite readily to the area. Upper 30s possible for the higher elevations Sat morning and then more widespread.
although additional convection is expected to develop over the next few hours ahead of the advancing cold front. Temperatures were holding steady in the low to mid 70s. An upper level low across the central United States will continue to dig southeastward over the next 36 hours allowing a strong cold front. The cold front should reach interior southeast Texas this afternoon and swiftly move across the rest of Texas and Louisiana later this afternoon into the early evening. Rains will end a short time after frontal passage with high pressure building into the region tonight through the weekend.
Warming trend today through Friday under upper ridge, although temps will be held down by cloud cover. The warm and dry trend continues today as the area will remain under a weak ridge aloft. This will keep moist westerly flow associated an upper level low pressure system just to our north through Friday for mainly high clouds. The higher terrain in Baker County stands the best chance to see showers this afternoon and Friday afternoon though it's only a slight chance.
1048 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain later today and into Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. A warm front should continue to lift north across the region today as developing low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
Ridge of high pressure directly overhead early this morning. mostly sunny skies will prevail today as the ridges holds over the region. warm air advection/isentropic lift/push of 850mb moisture transport kicks in as the high slides east and a warm front approaches from the Plains. Thursday could get a little interesting as the warm front sets up across southeast MN into far southwest WI. All models show a respectable surge of 850mb moisture transport going into the afternoon impinging on the warm front. GFS/NAM showing 0-3km MUCAPE increasing in excess of 4000j/kg along the warm front, but this seems a bit excessive given their respective surface dew points in the middle 70s. And given proximity to the surface warm front and decent helicity values.
The high will exit east beginning Thursday night, allowing for a warming trend and unsettled weather towards the weekend.
1022 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A cold front will cross the state early this morning.
The filtered sun will get temps up into the low 70s northeast to low 80s southwest today. Further south, elevated thunderstorms may exist late in the night in the vicinity of a warm front close to the SD border.
The flow around 85-7h is weaker east of the current precipitation and the low level jet will gradually decrease through the morning hours.
624 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure will continue over the area. Today Through Thursday Night A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the country by Thursday night. With high pressure in control. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
/issued 337 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ A clear night is underway throughout the Mid-South after a cold front, currently stretching from Kansas to New England, pushed through the region earlier today bringing drier, cooler air to the Mid- South.
A short wave diving down into the eastern upper trof will pass well to the north today and will carry the mean trof axis off the east coast late today and tonight. This will maintain the NW flow across our area, with high pressure at the surface building down from the Midwest and OH valley. High temps should be on the order of five degrees below yesterday owing to the passage of the thermal trof and the weaker downslope E of the Blue Ridge. As of 210 AM Wednesday: On Thursday, the mid level pattern across the CONUS will feature a trough over New England, longwave ridge over the Great Plains, and a low off the Pacific Northwest. Thursday night lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s across the mtns to the low to mid 60s east of I-85.
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 An upper level trough will cross the area this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds through the end of the work week.
1108 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure dominates the Midwest this morning and warm temperatures and light and variable winds remain the rule. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing mostly sunny skies and much lighter winds than have been noted in recent days. Despite cool early morning lows in the lower to middle 50s, dry airmass will heat efficiently today. Adjusting forecast soundings to an approximate mixing height of 800mb this afternoon yields high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, which is a couple of degrees warmer than numeric guidance. As the high shifts east of the region, WAA will begin tonight.
At the surface, a trough was noted across far southern South Dakota where a few showers had developed prior to 3 am. This trough will begin to lift northward later today.
Warm with scattered high clouds elsewhere under high pressure aloft.
An upper trough over the eastern states will move eastward today. High temps today will climb into the lower 90s across much of the area. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s inland to around 70 along the coast.
Increasing heat for the area day to day as upper ridge moves over the plains region.
One doesn't have to look to far to see the root cause for the anticipated warm up with water vapor imagery showing stout ridging across the central and northern Rockies this morning. This ridge is forecast to move downstream into the Plains and Miss Vly this week which will result in the warmest airmass of the season so far.
Rest of the forecast is on track with easterly surface flow, plenty of moisture and the proximity to the upper level low aloft aiding in formation of the scattered showers and storms throughout today. Another round of convection will fire early this afternoon, with a line over the lower valley moving slowly west. Some shower activity will develop again on Thursday, but the upper low will have shifted a bit farther offshore, so convection may be slightly weaker.
932 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure will build in today and persist through the end of the week. As of 930 AM Wednesday, high pressure over Missouri will continue to expand east through the afternoon. High temperatures on track and should reach the low/mid 80s in most area. A very pleasant June evening with lows dropping down to the low/mid 50s interior to 55-60 on the coast. Dry Wed thru Fri with warming temps as the slightly cooler airmass modifies.
936 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A cold front will cross the state early this morning.
Otherwise, will see an increasing southerly low level flow today as surface ridging moves off to the east. At the same time, a western CONUS upper level ridge will begin to nudge eastward, and all will contribute to warming temperatures for this afternoon. Readings will be a good 8 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the lower 80s east of Interstate 29 to upper 80s through the Missouri River corridor. It will be much milder night with lows in the lower to mid 60s. The remainder of the week looks to be hot and dry with a well amplified ridge parked over the region.
This morning was cooler and much drier across the TN Valley with overnight lows cooling into the lower 50s! The same trend will continue through the rest of today as well! In the wake of the cold front, dewpoints are around 10 degrees lower today and water vapor satellite highlights dry air across the region as well. As high pressure continues to move into the region and the pressure gradient slacks, the gusts will diminish.
Upper ridge will be over Montana today. The ridge axis will move from the western part of the state this morning to the eastern part of the state this afternoon. The ridge moves to the east tonight and flow aloft turns to the southwest with an upper low in the Pacific near British Columbia. A cold front will move through Central Montana tonight and across Eastern Montana on Thursday. However, the eastern zones will likely be warmer than today as the front will not arrive there until afternoon.
High pressure will be firmly in control over the next 36 hours, setting up a pleasant stretch of weather through Thursday. As the high shifts east Thursday, slightly milder temperatures will return, but still comfortable for June. Dewpoints might not recover as quickly as models anticipate on Thursday as the low level flow really doesn't support the moisture recovery, so have stayed under guidance with daytime mixing. Lows tonight should be well into the 40s for most valley locations with the high just about on top of us. Record lows are in the low 40s at London and upper 40s at Jackson and despite the chilly temperatures, these records may be hard to beat. Upper ridging across central North America will continue to be anchored by cyclonic flow on either side stretching from southern Canada into the northern U.
The first in a series of cooler weather systems will move through southwest Washington and northwest Oregon today for the start of a much cooler pattern. A second upper low will drop south out of the Gulf of Alaska later tonight and Thursday to reinforce the pattern and produce a better chance of showers. The low will remain over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend.
Drier and slightly cooler air will continue to filter in through Thursday, as a dry high pressure center builds into our region.
721 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will spread the area in the wake of this mornings showers.
The First Heatwave of the Season is upon us with Many Locations Aloft: The Wrn USA ridge will make steady/slow progress. The low-lvl jet will redevelop but the strongest WAA will be well NE of the fcst area. close to the better thermal packing along the warm front.
With this high- based activity, should primarily bring a threat for lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, will see an increasing southerly low level flow today as surface ridging moves off to the east. At the same time, a western CONUS upper level ridge will begin to nudge eastward, and all will contribute to warming temperatures for this afternoon. Readings will be a good 8 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the lower 80s east of Interstate 29 to upper 80s through the Missouri River corridor. It will be much milder night with lows in the lower to mid 60s. The remainder of the week looks to be hot and dry with a well amplified ridge parked over the region.
Otherwise, cirrus clouds lingered across portions of the high plains from earlier thunderstorm activity. Temperatures across western Nebraska ranged mainly in the low to mid 60s. An upper ridge will extend across the Southwestern U. This will bring the expansive thermal ridge eastward into the Central Plains today. Thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain to our west, and may move into parts of the eastern Panhandle and far southwest Nebraska late this afternoon. Strong mid-level ridging across the central US will keep central Nebraska dry from Thursday into the weekend.
(Issued 228 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016) 07z satellite and water vapor images are showing plenty of dry air and no clouds over the area with temps in the lower to middle 60s in the wake of a cold front. A deep upper ridge currently over much of the western U. Even with light winds out of the northwest, the slow rise in 850 temps in response to the ridge and the sunny skies will create a warming trend.
100 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure will build in today and persist through the end of the week. A very pleasant June evening with lows dropping down to the low/mid 50s interior to 55-60 on the coast. Dry Wed thru Fri with warming temps as the slightly cooler airmass modifies.
728 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 Clear skies prevailed over the forecast area this morning as a dry cold front continued to move southeast through GA. A northwest flow aloft will continue today as an upper level high pressure ridge sets up over the central U. dry high pressure dominating across the deep south through at least the weekend and possibly beyond.
A broad upper level trough across the eastern Great Lakes this morning will move east into New England Tonight. An amplified upper level ridge across the western US will begin to slowly move east towards the northern and central high plains late this afternoon and Tonight.
Closer to lingering trof axis across Central Florida a more moist/tropical airmass remains and a few showers/storms will be possible along and south of a line from Ocala to Palm Coast. Elsewhere expect partly to mostly sunny and hot conditions in the northwest steering flow with highs in the lower to middle 90s inland and even a late day Atlc Coast Sea Breeze will still allow 90 degree readings all the way to the coast.
/issued 339 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ Upper ridge remains centered west of Baja this morning with the ridge axis running up across the Intermountain West to Canada.
A cool high pressure system over the upper midwest will move southeast across Indiana late today and tonight and to the east coast by Thursday night.
/issued 315 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ High amplitude upper ridge is in firm control of the Western CONUS this morning though monsoonal moisture is doing its job of keeping the ridge a bit dirty just to our west. The ridge will slowly shift eastward today with perhaps only about a 10m H5 height increase. Thursday will be another quasi windy day (20mph on average) thanks to a surface lee trof.
Temperatures will be fairly persistent, with high in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front is currently pushing through the southern counties this morning. Guidance yesterday came in too cool as temperatures actually warmed into the lower and mid 90s. With the current upper level trough shifting into the eastern conus and soon into the Atlantic, an amplified upper ridge will set into place over the central US. With the upper ridge in place, a high pressure cell will drop down from the Ohio River Valley and push northerly winds into the CWA. As seen today, cooler temps will remain in the area ranging from mid 60s during the evening hours and mid 80s to low 90s for the daily max.
Winds are still expected to be quite gusty, particularly east of the Cascades and for the ridges west of the Cascades and the Siskiyous. A low pressure system will slowly drift into the Pacific Northwest, and it will bring a few troughs through the waters over the next several days. The Medford CWA is currently in between an offshore long wave trough and a broad ridge over the Western U.
Active weather today with near-record temperatures and gusty southwest winds ahead of a slow-moving Pacific cold front. Southwest flow strengthens over the area today as an upper trough advances toward the Pac NW. Ahead of the trough, the airmass dries out and warms up over much of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. By late afternoon a cold front accompanying the upper trough will advance into east-central Oregon, bringing a sharp wind shift, cooler temperatures and a slight chance showers and thunderstorms to Baker county and northern Harney and Malheur counties. Conditions remain dry into Thursday as the center of the trough stays along the WA/OR coast. The most notable change on Thursday will be the temperatures, which will be 10-15 cooler than today (though still above normal).
Trended slightly warmer today with mdls suggesting the wrmfnt lifting thru the region a little faster than prev progd. Will go with temps at the warmer guidance for today. Tilly Models are now a bit further north with placement of warm front on Thursday.
With these drier conditions and only mid and upper level cloudiness streaming over the region, high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected.
Thursday should be dry across the CWA as upper level ridging and warm 700 mb temps will be centered over the area.
A few showers and thunderstorms should develop across the Lower Texas Coast this afternoon, but will not impact the region. Gulf moisture will increase beginning Thursday with a developing lee trough across the Central High Plains. Therefore, it will start to feel a bit warmer during the afternoon with heat index values reaching the middle and upper 90s. Warm and humid conditions will continue on the weekend with high pressure aloft and abundant low level moisture.
Canadian high pressure brought a cooler and drier airmass, leading to overnight temperatures in the 50s. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the 60s. A very impressive upper ridge of high pressure will build over the nation's midsection through the end of the week.
The Medford CWA is currently in between an offshore long wave trough and a broad ridge over the Western U.
/issued 455 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ Weak cold front attempting to back door into the region this morning will slowly slip farther south to along the Gulf coast with a slight reinforcement of drier air filtering in later on today. Don't expect any relief in the temperature department as highs will climb into the lower to mid 90s under mostly clear skies with just some spotty cumulus developing during the heat of the afternoon.
955 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure centered over the Mississippi River Valley will build east into the region.
a broad upper level ridge was well established over the Rockies and front range with low pressure over eastern North America. The building thermal cap will become more prominent on Thursday associated with the apex of the upper level ridge moving into the Dakotas. Looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over western and much of central North Dakota.
Therefore, expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s area wide this afternoon.
/issued 331 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The overall upper level ridging from the southern California coast into Texas will continue to dominate the weather for our region. There is a weak upper low trapped within the ridging along the Gulf Coast which has sparked a few showers and storms in the Brownsville to Corpus Christi area. Tonight, have gone a few degrees cooler than models suggested in some of our low lying areas as temperatures in those locations have been just a bit colder than guidance the last couple nights. However, think that the coverage and possibility of any low clouds, which would hamper cooling, are low enough to keep the cooler than guidance temperatures.
946 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 Upper trough moving through the NE U. Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 49 80 56 / 0 0 0 0.
NAM/GFS both crank CAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Highs in the low to mid 90s, south winds gusting near 30 mph.
639 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing mostly sunny skies and much lighter winds than have been noted in recent days. Despite cool early morning lows in the lower to middle 50s, dry airmass will heat efficiently today. Adjusting forecast soundings to an approximate mixing height of 800mb this afternoon yields high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, which is a couple of degrees warmer than numeric guidance. As the high shifts east of the region, WAA will begin tonight.
1121 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 With high pressure bldg into area. /issued 455 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016/ Weak cold front attempting to back door into the region this morning will slowly slip farther south to along the Gulf coast with a slight reinforcement of drier air filtering in later on today. Don't expect any relief in the temperature department as highs will climb into the lower to mid 90s under mostly clear skies with just some spotty cumulus developing during the heat of the afternoon.
Clear skies, noticeably cooler temperatures and much more comfortable air is rampant across Middle Tennessee this morning. Thursday starts the transition to warmer temperatures. The upper level ridge that has been plaguing the Western U.
1134 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will spread the area in the wake of this mornings showers.
Continued warm and mostly dry weather conditions are forecast today under a high pressure ridge across the western states.
A cold front is currently pushing through the southern counties this morning. Guidance yesterday came in too cool as temperatures actually warmed into the lower and mid 90s. 88 With the current upper level trough shifting into the eastern conus and soon into the Atlantic, an amplified upper ridge will set into place over the central US. With the upper ridge in place, a high pressure cell will drop down from the Ohio River Valley and push northerly winds into the CWA. As seen today, cooler temps will remain in the area ranging from mid 60s during the evening hours and mid 80s to low 90s for the daily max.
650 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 Warmer temperatures and increasing south winds will return to Kansas for today.