Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Out ahead of the next incoming cold front, southerly flow will return tomorrow, allowing for highs to rise back well into the 40s and 50s, which will be above normal for this time of year.
A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH BOUNDARY IN NW ONTARIO AND NW MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO NE MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE A MEANS OF PRODUCING SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK.
332 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY FALLEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID-STATE EARLIER. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SATURATED UP TO 850MB MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THUS AM THINKING A LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BACKROADS AND BRIDGES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
1016 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015 AT 16Z THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAD MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT ARL/BRX THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. INSTEAD WILL FAVOR CONTINUING THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AND SW PLATTE COUNTY AREAS.
1046 AM MST MON FEB 9 2015 THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO A REGION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND BIG BEND OF NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CLEARING SKIES WITH A DEVELOPING NORTH WIND EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WEEKEND TROF HAS SHIFTED EAST. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** A RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN ALSO BEGINS TO SET UP AN OFFSHORE EVENT. THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE SW AND A LITTLE UPPER LOW RIDES UP AND OVER IT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
352 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
158 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON TUESDAY.
1113 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 1016 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/ AT 16Z THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAD MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
The lows will be mainly in the 40s with light winds. a lee trough will develop to our west, resulting in southerly winds picking up.
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH STARTING FOR KGUY AT 8Z WITH KAMA SHIFTING AROUND 15Z.
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX BY 12Z. INITIALLY THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. LAST NIGHT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLOUD COVER KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 30S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOT VERY DEEP. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE ALL FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THIS EVENT.
334 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE TUE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA THROUGH THE DAY ON WED INTO EARLY THU.
301 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2015 The low level stratus cloud deck that spread south across the region last night continues to persist across much of the area early this afternoon. The clearing will stop over the area likely close to the Highway 65 corridor this afternoon. An upper level ridge is located across the Plains this afternoon and will spread east and over the region on Tuesday. South winds and a warmer air mass spreading north will allow temperatures to range from the lower 60s across extreme southeast Kansas to the middle 40s across central Missouri on Tuesday.
SINCE WE'LL START OUT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MORNING (AND WITH WINDS GOING E/SE) DON'T ANTICIPATE QUITE AS WARM READING ON TUE BUT DID GO A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
Backdoor cold front has pushed southwest through the forecast area overnight as another weak wave tracked into the mid MS valley. The lowest visibilities are currently located on the western edge of the fog/stratus over south central NE. Winds should decrease as the ridge approaches the forecast area limiting the amount of mixing as most sites are only a few degrees away from saturation. Regardless have lowered the high temperatures today due to the uncertainty of the cloud cover, which should roughly range from 40 in far northeast KS to 50 in central KS. Highs forecast to mix from the lower 50s northeast to near 60 in the west.
THIS STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AND ERODES IT. ONE CONCERN IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL KEEP ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY.
AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR (THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME AREAS).
1254 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST.
/ISSUED 255 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/ COOLER. BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON DECK FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.
THE SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE 50S AS WINDS CALM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH FROM AROUND KLGU TO KSLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. A LEADING EDGE OF A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. RETURNING MOISTURE ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME PRECIP BACK INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK.
1250 PM PST MON FEB 9 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
These showers and storms were situated just ahead of a surface cold front. Lows tonight behind the cold front will return closer to seasonal normals.
/ISSUED 257 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2015/ The presence of a low level thermal ridge today underneath nw mid level flow and Tue underneath wly flow aloft suggest above normal temperatures will continue, 75 to 80 most areas and L80s along Rio Grande. By Wed a deepening mid level trof will move to near the 4 corners region, this as a fast moving cold front in assocn with nrn branch of polar jet moves thru the plains. Models develop light QPF by early Thur AM, but based on location of upper low (too far to the w) the trend of lowering PoPs looks appropriate.
Drier and warmer conditions return Tuesday. The final piece of energy will rotate across Norcal today as the upper low along the Pac NW Coast opens-up and moves across the Pac NW. Radar shows more showers moving Ewd into interior Norcal with the vort max rotating beneath the upper low. Forecast soundings show strong cooling in the low to mid levels this afternoon resulting in steepening lapse rates. High pressure rebuilds Tuesday for a return of drier and milder weather.
405 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 315 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/ QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON WILL WORK AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
1117 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1049 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/ THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. EXPECT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD 00Z. HAVE SHIFTED WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT MSL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MADE PRECIP PREDOMINANT.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT.
327 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
I also removed the threat of isolated snow showers across the northeast mountains or, more correctly, just changed it to a mention of flurries near the higher terrain. Cote' 18Z TAFS: A drier northerly flow, with minor upper impulses riding in it over a building ridge, will produce only a few middle and high clouds over the next 24 hours: a VFR regime. The lower levels remain dry and winds are expected to remain at generally at 10kts or less.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. CURRENTLY A LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE ALONG 14OW WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE.
COOL CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 COLD FRONT ARRIVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND ENDING THIS MORNING. WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED. SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH 8 AM. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST! AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
LOCAL RADARS REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES THANKS TO DEEP RIDGING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. LARGE-SCALE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES OVER TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. MARCH SUNSHINE WILL MEAN A LARGE TEMPERATURE SWING BACK TO ABOVE 40 DEG IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THU. LITTLE WIND OR WEATHER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT. WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING WARMER TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPS WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUT THE SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT REACH THIS AREA UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVE.
AND SOME FREEZING RAIN. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER FOOL YOU. AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. BEING LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
LIKELY NO RELIEF WITH THIS UNTIL/AFTER THE COLD FRONT WEDS. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPS REMAIN THE 50S NORTHWEST OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED FROM DKR TO UTS TO NEAR COLUMBUS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WE WILL SEE THE FOG LIFT. POSSIBLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FOR MOST AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND.
/ISSUED 926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/ DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES.
AND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS UPPER TROF MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
123 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
343 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND ENDING THIS MORNING. WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED. SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH 8 AM. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST! AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
1213 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AND A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. FAR SOUTHERN MN ACTUALLY HAD SOME FREEZING RAIN.
INITIAL PRESSURE TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AND TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z.
THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND.
925 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND KICK OFF A PERIOD OF CLEAR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE ADIABATIC WARMING TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS. ALL FORECAST SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING.
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015 A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the way to the region. The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BEHIND OUR LATEST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER DURING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WILL LET SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA CONTINUE THROUGH 0Z AS VISIBILITIES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MILES AROUND THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BUT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR AREA.
BEFORE THE CANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN. MIDDLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MID MORNING. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. KEEP IN MIND THAT SLEET AND SNOW CAN FALL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. SO DON'T RELY ON THE FREEZING LINE TO DETERMINE WHEN SHOW/SLEET MAY BEGIN. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A LESSER THREAT. SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE AT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN WARMER THAN SNOW.
BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RIDE NORTH ALONG THE COAST WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
COLD FRONT NEAR KTYR/KTXK BY 04/18Z. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN.
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015 Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the lower to middle 30s as of this morning. The coolest air temperatures remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing drizzle/rain remains possible. Primary concern will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing. Highs will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Lows will fall into the single digits to the lower teens.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 30S.
In addition, low clouds will return to much of West Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the north. Models continue to bring the cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow morning. Plus, we believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or below the freezing mark.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE WED WITH AREA ON BACK SIDE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. AND AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.