Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a broad low pressure system was over the eastern United States. A ridge of high pressure was building across the central united states and in our area. we are still on the backside of the large upper level trough mentioned earlier across the eastern US.
A similar set-up remains for daytime Friday, with model consensus highlighting far west counties and the Highway 281 corridor. The other deterministic models show a sharper mid to upper level ridge axis knifing NE into North TX effectively ending unstable NW flow pattern.
347 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Another nice day is on tap for the North Country today, with temperatures warmer than yesterday in the mid 70s to low 80s, but there will be a few isolated terrain driven showers possible across the Adirondacks during the afternoon.
Upper ridging over the Rockies today, will shift eastward into the plains during the day Friday as a closed low in the east opens up and moves off the mid Atlantic seaboard. Northwesterly upper flow over Arkansas will keep temperatures subdued today, ranging from around 80 in the cooler spots up north to the low or mid 80s in the southwest. As the upper ridge shifts east into the plains, southerly flow will return and both temperatures and humidity levels will gradually climb.
223 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper ridge to the west of the CWA will move eastward today and tonight and emerge over the plains Friday.
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper low located over WV with a trough axis extending southwestward across middle TN. Meanwhile, the latest sfc analysis shows a weak trough over eastern TN.
622 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper low will spin across southwest Pennsylvania before moving into New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight into Friday, before a pair of disturbances drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure and the associated quiet weather pattern will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight (and beyond). Strong ridging over the high plains and troughing over the eastern U. Pattern will keep the edge of any impacts of weak impulses topping the ridge out of our area. Little reflection of this wave at the surface and any CAA will be counteracted by the upper ridge building east into the Great Lakes.
The base of a deep upper trough continues to rotate south across the local area overnight. With the clearing skies, temps have already fallen into the lower 60s to around 70 and are expected to fall to the mid to upper 50s. Cloud cover though may tempo increase Thu, as the upper low/trough pattern over the Mid Atlantic/OH Valley areas begins to gradually lift newd. Cloud cover may be a little more concentrated across NE AL on Thu, with some dynamic forcing becoming slightly better organized over extreme NE AL, invof the upper trough axis.
Central Alabama will be under the influence of upper trof which was positioned over the southeast states. This upper trof will bring cooler and lower humidity levels into the region. An inverted surface trof currently over west Georgia will push into east Alabama this morning. Clouds have already increased in areal coverage across far east Alabama along the low level trof axis. The inverted trof will dissolve this evening and so will the chance of any additional showers. 58/rose Deep-layer dry air and relative high pressure will be in place on Friday behind a departing upper trough.
317 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The warm up begins today as high pressure that has been in control over the past couple days finally shifts south. Weak afternoon warm air advection and mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. However, the real warm up will be reserved for this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region beginning Friday.
Low level flow this morning is a bit weak, but short range guidance suggests an increase along the low level theta-e axis, combined with a focused region for isentropic ascent developing through 12z (7am) across the northwest. Cohen's well detailed Day One SPC Outlook, any short wave impulses traversing the 500mb ridge will add additional support to any diurnally driven convection. Overall, chances will diminish through the day, as the upper ridge finally begins to shift eastward, tilting into the mid-Missouri Valley.
1047 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A cold front tracks through overnight into Thursday bringing significantly cooler temperatures through the weekend. NAM and HRRR suggest the night will feature dry and mild conditions until the cold front arrives in the morning. /sb 06Z TAFS: Southerly flow ahead of an approaching trof is transporting mid and high level moisture into the region with cigs generally abv 12K ft AGL. Showers and embedded high based thunderstorms will begin developing around the Cascades overnight and spread east through the day on Thur as a cold front presses slowly into the region.
507 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will provide unsettled afternoon weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
Upper level ridge will be over Eastern Montana today. Low pressure system moves across Eastern Montana with a warm front. The low moves to the east Friday morning ending the chances for showers. A cold front moves in the afternoon and evening which will be late enough in the day for the eastern half to get hot with highs in the 90s. With the ridge moving to the east on Friday, the flow aloft turns to the SW.
Weak subtle perturbations moving through the upper ridge combined with surface heating has triggered another round of thunderstorms over the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as we start a warming/drying trend into the end of the work week. -KT Thursday night and Friday An upper level disturbance embedded in northwest flow east of the ridge axis will move through southern Colorado Thursday evening. The upper level ridge will persist over Colorado on Friday, bringing very warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions to southern Colorado.
Best chance of thunderstorms will shift south and east into the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains during Thursday as the aforementioned disturbances continue to track southeast into those locations. This disturbance is forecast to weaken and move southeast through the remainder of west Texas Friday with a slight chance of thunderstorms from the southeast Permian Basin to the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Precipitation chances should be on the decrease this weekend as an upper level ridge to the west builds into the area.
High temperatures today a will be mainly in the 90s, a bit cooler than yesterday, with similar temperatures on Friday. With the return of onshore flow will expect lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
516 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low into Thursday night. High pressure and warming conditions for the weekend into the beginning of the new work week. Cant be completely ruled out anywhere this morning with upper low across region. Unsettled weather to continue today, as upper low continues to linger across the area. Could be some river valley fog towards morning across the area, depending on how quickly the low and associated cloud cover pulls out of the region. Despite the upper level low moving off to the east and high pressure building, a weak disturbance slides down the backside of the upper low and brings a small chance for precip to the northern counties. After this slides through, high pressure builds strongly for the remainder of the weekend for increasing temperatures.
North to northwest flow dominates above 700 mb through the period owing to the stationary pattern through the next 36 hours with south Texas east of the center of 500 mb ridge over New Mexico and broad trough with core over the Mid Atlantic states but axis extending back to the west central Gulf. Weak short waves diving into the backside of the trough kick up lift and some deep moisture today and Friday but the core remains well north of the Valley.
Although rain chances are not expected today, will point out that some of the higher resolution models such as the 00Z Texas Tech and the 06Z HRRR show at least isolated chances today over the far southwestern areas toward Matagorda Bay.
Temperatures ranged from the mid- upper 60s in the Bluegrass region to the lower-middle 70s out toward the Pennyrile region. Temperatures will cool into the lower 60s in most locations during the evening. For Thursday and Thursday Night, the upper low over the northern Mid- Atlantic regions will generally stay in place. A small perturbation aloft will rotate through the upper trough to our east and may produce a stray shower over eastern KY. By Thursday night, the upper low will start to pull off to the east and dry conditions are expected with lows in the low to middle 50s. High pressure across the southeastern U. Aloft, a trough in place Friday will shift eastward and ridging will build in and strengthen.
405 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper level low pressure area will drift across the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast states through Friday. Very cool night out there for early June as temperatures across the area are already in the mid to upper 50s this morning with the lowest temperatures in the northeast. Temperatures very cool once again today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in a very nice day on Friday with a warmup underway as southerly return flow brings maximum temperatures back up into the low to mid 80s.
255 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central MN, with a frontal boundary stretching southwest through southern SD into northeastern WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far northern MN with an upper ridge over the Rockies, creating northwest flow over the northern high plains. For today, upper ridge will continue to build allowing southerly flow to bring warmer air into the northern plains. Upper ridge becomes centered over the area Friday, with very warm temperatures expected. Winds will turn more south-southwest ahead of the approaching cold front and a dryline that will extend south into far northeast WY and the Black Hills.
613 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today. Low pressure is then expected to pass east of our region tonight and early Friday, but plenty of shower activity is expected due to an upper level low.
The cool down begins today as the leading edge of a broad upper low moves into the Pacific NW. A cold front will track through southeast Oregon late this morning with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are 10-20 degrees cooler today than yesterday, and another 5-15 degrees of cooling from today to Friday will put temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal.
518 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
An inverted trough axis is currently setup over the Atlanta area and has allowed for continued cloud and light shower development this morning. To some extent this is already occurring in the Atlanta area this morning with the inverted trough. Models are running a bit on the low side (mid-upper 70s) and nudged highs this afternoon a degree or two above those values. With increasing subsidence and light winds as the ridge moves east we can expect temps in the low to mid 80s.
459 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper ridge to the west of the CWA will move eastward today and tonight and emerge over the plains Friday.
The larger trough axis was moving slowly to the southeast. moving slowly to the southeast towards the northeastern CONUS upper trough. This upper trough will help delay the return to low-level southerly winds for Arkansas. which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for highs across the state. After the trough passes by Thursday night. a larger scale upper level ridge will build over the region as we head into the weekend.
356 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A developing low pressure system offshore the southeast coast will track slowly northeast offshore the Carolina coast today, then lift rapidly northeast to the Canadian maritimes tonight and Friday.
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 TODAY AND TONIGHT: The upper level trough/low that has been slowly moving through the Gulf this week has been absorbed into the larger east coast trough this morning as it moves across North Florida and Georgia. With the system go the best dynamics, the subtropical jet and main trough, off to the northeast away from the area. With the waning deep moisture and effects of the trough lifting away, fewer clouds and more sunshine this morning, we will transition into a more convective pattern. FRIDAY: Frontal boundary stalls out across the Lake Okeechobee region on Friday, with broad troughing continuing aloft across the state.
317 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure brought a pleasant day across the North Country with another round of fog expected overnight in the favoured river valley locations.
402 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low into Thursday night. High pressure and warming conditions for the weekend into the beginning of the new work week. Unsettled weather to continue today, as upper low continues to linger across the area. Could be some river valley fog towards morning across the area, depending on how quickly the low and associated cloud cover pulls out of the region. Despite the upper level low moving off to the east and high pressure building, a weak disturbance slides down the backside of the upper low and brings a small chance for precip to the northern counties. After this slides through, high pressure builds strongly for the remainder of the weekend for increasing temperatures.
243 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will affect the weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
545 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will provide unsettled afternoon weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
There are still a few light showers associated with the departing cold front along the North Dakota border, but these should move out over the next hour or two. High pressure will make for dry weather conditions tonight across northeast Montana with clearing skies.
Upper trough is swinging through the mid state this evening, and will be east of us by morning, so look for less thunderstorm potential tomorrow.
749 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will slowly dissipate through Wednesday. High pressure will then build over the area then dominate the weather the rest of the week. Showers/thunderstorms have increased across NW Ohio this afternoon near a 7H trough/low that will only slowly dissipate into Wednesday.
915 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A low pressure trough deepening over the West, will maintain a deep marine layer and seasonally cool weather into the upcoming weekend.
The local weather map features weak high pressure extending E-W across N FL with light onshore flow ascd with the diurnal onshore breeze, weakening at this hour. A modest amount of mid level debris clouds will diminish late tonight leaving just sct at most clouds in cvrg given predominant ridge across most of the region into Wed.
Still a weak line of showers across central ND, and this will continue to wane as the upper trough shifts farther east, and westerly winds and drier air advect in overnight. Cooler and much drier on Wednesday.
951 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 The strongest storms are now over the southern valley with the best MLCAPE values as the front moves into the highest sig tor parameter axis, which is over Richland co. The thunderstorms will exit the area to the east as the cold front pushes through sometime between 06 and 12Z with a few lingering showers left behind. Southwest winds and warm air advection will return fairly quickly for Wednesday as another trough develops to our west.
Upper level high pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Line of storms has cleared eastern ND and have cancelled the TOR watch for eastern ND, as well as far NW Minnesota where it is predominantly rain showers as well as some high wind gusts, that have subsided significantly since issuing the high wind warning for the wake low. The strongest storms are now over the southern valley with the best MLCAPE values as the front moves into the highest sig tor parameter axis, which is over Richland co. The thunderstorms will exit the area to the east as the cold front pushes through sometime between 06 and 12Z with a few lingering showers left behind. Southwest winds and warm air advection will return fairly quickly for Wednesday as another trough develops to our west.
830 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will move into the area on Wednesday and will linger while gradually dissipating through the end of the week. Expect mostly clear skies as the low level flow will back to a more west-nw direction, advecting a slightly drier air mass which should inhibit the formation of widespread low clouds and fog.
937 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will slowly dissipate through Wednesday. High pressure will then build over the area then dominate the weather the rest of the week. Showers/thunderstorms have increased across NW Ohio this afternoon near a 7H trough/low that will only slowly dissipate into Wednesday.
Wednesday will be a break between storm systems, and then a cold upper trough will move into Utah starting Wednesday night. The upper trough that brought precipitation and cooler air to the forecast area last night and today is now heading towards the northern Great Plains. The decaying cold front has made it past a Milford to Green River line and is expected to make very little additional forward progress. The cold airmass and mostly clear skies will allow for much cooler overnight mins compared to last night for areas behind the cold front. A warmer southwesterly flow aloft will develop tomorrow in advance of the next trough which will be carving into the Pacific Northwest region.
Drier conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. This is associated with an upper level trough pivoting through the region along with some embeddedshort wave energy. However, will linger some lower chance pops through much of the night as the trough axis swings overhead. Even though an upper ridge is trying to dominate the region, there appears that there will be enough sfc convergence that pop-up convection can't be ruled out.
Moisture will be present in the low levels overnight. showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher elevations of east TN with little to no impacts to any TAF site.
1125 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Midsummer-like conditions have returned to the area under strong warm and moist air advection in the lower levels. Cold front will progress through the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures.
/issued 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nern Gulf maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow. Water vapor imagery continues to show a more zonal flow in place aloft as a longwave trof continues pushing ewd across the Rockies. Seasonal POPs remain in the forecast through the remainder of the period as sufficient moisture lingers and interacts with a developing shear axis aloft thanks to deepening trof over the wrn along with Jose spinning off the middle Atlantic coast.
As the surface cold front moves farther to the southeast, the mechanism generating the strong west to northwest flow along and just east of the south Laramie Range will gradually weaken through midnight. Cold front moving into the plains currently and will move across the Panhandle by early this evening.
19z surface analysis had low near KPIR with pre-frontal trough into central NE and cold front into east central WY. 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed over central SD ahead of pre-frontal trough with Td/s in the mid-upper 60s. It'll be a race between the pre-frontal trough and synoptic lift as to whether strong instability and shear can be realized over south central SD late this afternoon.
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 For this update have removed the mention of rainfall and adjusted the cloud cover up with the current trend of low level moisture feeding into Central and North Texas and approach of short wave trough of low pressure across South Oklahoma and North and Central Texas, and along the Western side of weak upper level ridge over Southeast Texas and Southwest and East Texas.
After the wave exits, ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes as a deep trough develops over the northwest U.
The result of these conditions will be low temperatures several degrees warmer compared to this mornings lows with upper 60s to upper 70s forecast.
Our PoP forecast is somewhat based on the latest HRRR runs, except we had to extend the higher PoPs farther south to account for the HRRR's incorrect storm initialization.
Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees to become more in line with the cooler air behind the showers and decreasing cloud cover. Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 67 87 / 20 20 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 85 65 85 / 20 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 86 66 85 / 20 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 83 60 82 / 20 30 10 30.
900 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Surface analysis this evening continues to show a large area of high pressure over the eastern US. This looks to result in heat indices perhaps climbing into the lower/mid 90s across NW/N cntrl AL.
VFR conditions expected to prevail across the region with gusty south winds ahead of approaching cold front. Cold front will move over northwest and west-central Oklahoma terminals near or shortly after 12Z with the front forecast to stall before passing over rest of terminals.
Currently, an upper level trough is becoming negatively tilted over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains as the associated trough axis pivots into the region. This is reinforcing frontal features at the surface with a warm front analyzed from the Dakotas into Iowa. A cold front is marching into western Nebraska and a dryline feature is extending from western KS into the TX panhandle. Temps also should be cooler over much of the area in the low to mid 80s. It is possible on the warmer side of the boundary that some of the counties in east central KS could reach into the upper 80s and around 90. 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement in slowly progressing the long wave trough over the western US eastward into the plains through the period.
Afternoon and evening shower coverage remained extremely isolated to the higher elevations Tuesday, with a weakening trend expected to continue after sunset. High pressure continues to build into the High pressure will remain across our area this afternoon into tonight. A weak surface cold front to the northwest slowly edging east towards the mountains late tonight. The cap will weaken enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. A rather quiet weather pattern with little change in the low level/upper level features.
750 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures.