Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
518 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021 The trough that has been sitting to the southwest of the area will continue to impact the region through the first part of the term. As the trough slowly begins to eject, the embedded jetstreak will slowly surge into the region. Still in agreement with earlier shift on the highlight locations while considering potential upgrades across Natrona and Johnson counties. As the trough and associated low ejects out, drier air will advect in and allow for the lower clouds to begin to filter out. Behind the departing trough quasi- zonal flow sets up but models project a few small perturbations working their way through the day Monday. Monday night through Sunday With troughing expected to remain over the area through much of the period, active and unsettled will be the words to describe the weather pattern.
323 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021 A low pressure system is moving north into Montana, bringing another batch of rain to Central Montana and far eastern Montana and the Dakotas. The low track is expected to be a little more west, riding up the Rocky Mountain Front into Alberta and Saskatchewan by Monday morning. To the east towards North Dakota, similar rainfall totals are possible as a band of moisture wraps into the low. Residual rain may fall into Monday morning to the north and western portions of the CWA as precipitation wraps around the low on its journey north.
We are seeing a few light showers mainly along the Sierra crest as a vort max embedded in the upper level low pushes into northern NV. Then the upper level low will finally become an open wave and push northeast into the northern Rockies. This will bring dry conditions for the remainder of the day along with a continued warming trend as short wave ridging builds in. Ridging pushes to the east on Monday as a short wave drops into the PacNW.
648 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will remain over much of the eastern United States today with above normal temperatures. A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic area from the north on Monday which will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The clouds and showers should dissipate through the day today as the low finally exits to the northeast, although some light rain is possible along the coast this morning and afternoon as a weak warm front pushes onshore. Smaller scale upper level ridging will then build in overhead, with temperatures warming and the area drying out until the next system arrives Monday.
Very warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected today ahead of a cold front pushing south across upstate NY. Waning large scale forcing and a cooling boundary layer should result in diminishing convection along the cold front, as it sags into the central part of the forecast area this evening, then stalls out over southwest Pa after midnight. Mixing to at least 850mb yields expected highs today ranging from the low 80s over the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands, to around 90F in the Susq Valley. Model consensus tracks wave of low pressure and best chance of rain across the southwest part of the forecast area Monday morning. Still favoring the slightly cooler Superblend Monday, based on southeast flow/cold air damming, a scenario which the NBM usually struggles with.
617 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures to continue due to a ridge of high pressure in the area.
The trough centered over the Great Basin that has been helping support the convection the last few days is expected to finally lift to the northeast today. With the dry air in place, borderline critical fire weather conditions will exist today, but will be localized and focused mainly over the lower desert valleys. Winds will finally relax tonight as the upper level trough continues to move out, allowing pressure gradient to relax and become more zonal.
624 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure continues the very warm, mostly clear, and generally dry conditions.
338 AM MST Sun May 23 2021 A slow-moving low pressure system over the intermountain West will eject northeastward today, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal by Monday. DISCUSSIONâ¦ Early morning temperatures across the lower deserts are in the 50s and lower 60s, making it the coolest morning in nearly a month for many spots. Meanwhile, the closed upper low that has lingered across the intermountain West the past few days is showing signs of weakening. This will allow the low to lift northeastward today.
expect an upper level low tracking north across the intermountain west to help push an upper level wave and surface front across the region late this evening or overnight.
Water vapour had elongated upper trough from southeast OR to UT with today's weather maker taking shape over eastern UT per 110kt north-south oriented jet streak over western CO. Today/tonight, upper low shifts into western MT as jet streak zips northward. Trailing dry line/trough expected as jet streak lifts into MT. Rapid evolution of features as 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE pools along warm front and 0-6km bulk shear increases to 40-50kts. 0-3km shear very well-defined along warm front per hodographs. Hints at a couple of supercells ahead of main line along warm front. Discrete supercells along warm front will feature large hail and possible tornadoes.
1019 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Lighter winds in place today as the high pressure center has settled just to the north of the state and allowed the pressure gradient to relax. Easterly flow below headline criteria for the next several days as high pressure will remain across the area through the week.
Tropical moisture continues to be pumped into the area with a ridge of high pressure maintaining to the east and a trough located to our west. The ridge is expanding ever so slightly westward which has shifted the heaviest area of precipitation to the western portion of the CWA. Subsidence from the mid level ridge may suppress most of the development though a few should bust through.
1048 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 The dominant synoptic-scale feature influencing the local weather pattern this morning is a deep, north-south ridge, extending from the western Caribbean to Canada. This system support a robust, low-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States, which is driving easterly flow across the Florida Keys, as well as large-scale subsidence. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the lower Straits of Florida (beyond the Florida Reef tract, between the Seven Mile Bridge and west of Dry Tortugas National Park). A sprawling high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through the next several days.
/TW/ Stout ridging aloft and at the surface will remain centered over the Deep South today. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. /TW/ Strong ridging remains in place through at least midweek in the mid levels and aloft. Mid week the pattern aloft starts to shift as a wave at h5 pushes into the Great Lakes as another moves on shore in the Pac NW and the subtropical ridge weakens to accommodate a more zonal pattern. Precip chances shift to a more diurnal/afternoon thunderstorm regime at the end of the week when the llvl RH has rebounded with dwpts well into the 60s and the mid/upper level ridging begins to break down.
320 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021 The trough that has been sitting to the southwest of the area will continue to impact the region through the first part of the term. As the trough slowly begins to eject, the embedded jetstreak will slowly surge into the region. Still in agreement with earlier shift on the highlight locations while considering potential upgrades across Natrona and Johnson counties. As the trough and associated low ejects out, drier air will advect in and allow for the lower clouds to begin to filter out. Behind the departing trough quasi- zonal flow sets up but models project a few small perturbations working their way through the day Monday. Monday night through Sunday With troughing expected to remain over the area through much of the period, active and unsettled will be the words to describe the weather pattern.
Expect to see temperatures drop a few more degrees over the next couple of hours with many other locations dropping into the low to mid 20s along the high terrain. Temperatures will warm back up into the mid 60s across the high terrain and to mid to upper 70s across the valleys for Sunday. The low that brought us the extreme winds will begin to lift northward through the day Sunday. With the low still to our north, afternoon west to southwest breezes will still occur. With temperature around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and much lighter breezes, it should be a great Sunday to get outdoors. A ridge will build in across the area through the midweek with quiet weather and warming temperatures expected.
/issued 327 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Closed 500 mb low pressure off the coast of neighboring Tamaulipas will gradually move north towards the Middle Texas Coast and then inland during the period. The proximity of this mid-level system to the BRO CWFA will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the best chance for precipitation located over the lower Texas coastal waters.
1049 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Upper level ridge still influencing the sunny and dry wx across the Ohio Valley this morning. MaxT this afternoon will once again range from the mid to upper 80s with a few locations breaking into the low 90s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are once again expected tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s with our urban areas seeing lows in the mid/upper 60s thanks to the urban heat island. On Monday surface pressures will be decreasing but the upper ridge will still be in place from Ontario through the Ohio Valley to the Gulf.
620 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The frontal boundary that pushed south across the CWA yesterday will surge back northward as a warm front today. Stage is set for rather good warming, and an opportunity to side with the higher end of guidance for temperatures. The highly meridional mid-level pattern or recent days will gradually lose some amplitude as main trof aloft shifts into southern Canada very early in the period.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist into Monday as a high pressure ridge dominates from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Deep South. This ridge will begin to shift east by Monday and Monday night, but any precipitation potential should hold off until mid week. Nights should be relatively mild with lows in the lower 60s tonight and middle 60s by Monday night.
A low pressure system over southwest Idaho and northeast Nevada today will bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the northern parts of Lincoln County this afternoon. Otherwise, a weak cold front will bring north breezes to the area tonight and Monday.
Mild night currently with temps in the lower 60s for the most part. The short term period will continue to be controlled by a stacked zone of high pressure through Sunday night.
Today looks pretty similar to yesterday with the upper low slow to move over the western US and the high pretty well locked in place in the east. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s, but wouldn't be surprised to see some locations a few degrees cooler if they are more impacted by showers. Heading into the work week, there is at least some more meaningful movement in the pattern as the next trough comes onshore in the Pacific. This pushes the upper low northeast and should finally cause the blocking high to break down through the week.
Morning water vapor imagery clearly depicts the mid-level ridging centered almost directly over the TN Valley, aided by the presence of some wispy cirrus. Blended guidance is slightly warmer today and shows higher probabilities of reaching 90 (40-60%)--but soundings & RH plots hint that the cirrus may not be in a big rush to go away.
506 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Broad ridging throughout the atmospheric column (its axis just to our west) will result in mostly clear skies lasting into this evening, along with warm temperatures. An upper level trough dropping southeast across southeast Canada and New England will cause a cold front to approach us from the northeast late tonight and Monday.
Meanwhile, the upper high over the Southeast will begin to flatten. Convection developing over the High Plains along the lee trough/dryline, may survive eastward into portions of central Kansas late tonight into tomorrow morning when instability is waning. Strong-severe storms should initiate by late Monday afternoon/evening over the central/southern High Plains with strong heating along the lee trough/dryline.
639 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The synoptic high pressure to the east has slowly built westward which will leave our Sunday morning dry for much of the region. There is some uncertainty in the strength of this trough as well as the effects of diurnal heating prior to its arrival.
Broad ridging throughout the atmospheric column (its axis just to our west) will result in mostly clear skies lasting into this evening, along with warm temperatures. An upper level trough dropping southeast across southeast Canada and New England will cause a cold front to approach us from the northeast late tonight and Monday.
The large upper level low pressure system will be lifting northward into central Montana today. The path of the low will cause a moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico to be wrapped back into the Northern Rockies. Snow levels will be slowly rising throughout the day, but the higher terrain will receive several feet of new snow by Monday morning. The low pressure system will continue to track northward tonight into Monday with steady precipitation being mainly confined to northwest Montana.
MVFR cigs currently at KMAF/KCNM and IFR at KHOB at this hour and will continue through 14z before diurnal mixing scours out the low ceilings from west to east. /issued 338 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ A deep upper level low remains over the western U. This low will be replaced by another, though weaker, low that will slowly transit the northern U. in a troughing pattern with lower pressures continuing to advect moist Gulf air into southeastern New Mexico and West Texas as well as prevent a strong upper ridge from developing. Low level moisture will help storms to develop over the next couple of days with the highest PoPs in our western counties.
Upper level high pressure centered along the Mississippi River shifts southeast in response to a deep upper low over the northwestern Conus moving though a mean upper trough. Subsidence from the upper ridge will continue to bring temperatures above seasonal norms, especially over areas closer to the center of the upper high, east of the Tombigbee River in our case. High temperatures today are expected to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the warmer temperatures again east of the Tombigbee. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the mid 60s at the coast.
221 AM PDT Sun May 23 2021 Cold low pressure will bring some showers again today but many locations will see a drying trend by this afternoon. Warmer temperatures and afternoon breezes are forecast for the rest of the week with a few showers possible across far northern California and Nevada.
422 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The synoptic high pressure to the east has slowly built westward which will leave our Sunday morning dry for much of the region. There is some uncertainty in the strength of this trough as well as the effects of diurnal heating prior to its arrival.
GOES WV analysis indicates deep relatively drier air advecting across the region at this time on the eastern flank of the upper ridge axis. As a result, earlier iso/sct stratocu across the southern valley will continue to erode, all while fair wx cu is favored on the ridgetops, perhaps in portions of the valley as well. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 64 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 63 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 62 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 58 87 62 90 / 10 0 10 10 10.
A slow-moving low pressure system over the intermountain West will eject northeastward today, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal by Monday. DISCUSSIONâ¦ Early morning temperatures across the lower deserts are in the 50s and lower 60s, making it the coolest morning in nearly a month for many spots. Meanwhile, the closed upper low that has lingered across the intermountain West the past few days is showing signs of weakening. This will allow the low to lift northeastward today.
KCDS has the highest potential of being affected by thunderstorms; however, confidence in temporal and spatial extent is too low to include in this forecast. The only impactful difference is the low to our west has lifted north slightly, placing eastern New Mexico in southwesterly flow aloft. In addition to the low stratus, patchy fog is also possible over the Rolling Plains. As storms move into the South Plains, the upper-level flow will decrease, and drying will occur in the low to mid-levels. With a stronger upper level low pulling out into the Canadian Prairies on Monday, surface lee cyclogenesis over southeastern Colorado will keep surface winds backed across West Texas.
1000 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure over the East will continue mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures. The chance for scattered convection may return by the end of the week as the ridge flattens allowing moisture to increase. Deep layered high pressure will remain centered to our west from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast.
PWat anomalies continue to be on the high side for this coming week meaning the storms that do develop are likely to be rather efficient rain producers.
221 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Stacked high pressure will keep the heat and air stagnation going for Middle Tennessee with many locations reaching around 90 the next couple of days.
327 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the lower and mid Ms River Valley region tonight and Monday.
Hit/miss showers and thunderstorms will remain intact across deep South Texas through the rest of the afternoon and evening as the upper low slowly drifts northward. A deep mid/upper-level low over the western CONUS will lift northward later tonight and into Monday, helping build an elongated west-to-east subtropical ridge over central Mexico and kicking the weak disturbance that is currently overhead northeastward in the process. Model consensus points at weak perturbations in the mid-level flow and has a surface coastal trough developing tonight, leading to showers and thunderstorms beginning early-mid Monday morning.
140 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Anomalously warm high pressure continues to dominate the pattern as temperatures will reach the mid-90s this week.
Temperatures have risen to the lower 70s over the far southern SD parts of the forecast area with dewpoints in the 60s flowing northward. Water vapour had elongated upper trough from southeast OR to UT with today's weather maker taking shape over eastern UT per 110kt north-south oriented jet streak over western CO. Today/tonight, upper low shifts into western MT as jet streak zips northward. Trailing dry line/trough expected as jet streak lifts into MT. Rapid evolution of features as 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE pools along warm front and 0-6km bulk shear increases to 40-50kts. 0-3km shear very well-defined along warm front per hodographs. Hints at a couple of supercells ahead of main line along warm front. Discrete supercells along warm front will feature large hail and possible tornadoes.
352 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A cooler air mass settles into the region for tonight into Monday.
The closed upper low that has influenced the weather for several days is currently making its way into southwest MT and continues to bring wrap around moisture to far eastern WA/OR. Instability will increase this afternoon, and a wave rotating around the low will bring additional light showers to the northeast mountains/valleys this afternoon. High pressure building behind the low will tighten pressure gradients for sustained winds around 15-30 mph. Another upper low will be approaching the Pacific northwest and will be near the coast on Monday. Southwest flow ahead of the low with increasing clouds and instability.
933 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021 Updated forecast for cooler temperatures as guidance is lowering temperatures in response to stubborn stratus field across the area.
344 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 An upper level ridge extended from the Gulf Coast region north into southeastern MO and southern portions of IL and IN with surface ridging also extending north-northwestward into southeastern MO and southern IL.
1100 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure remains in control today.
Upper level ridge still influencing the sunny and dry wx across the Ohio Valley this morning. MaxT this afternoon will once again range from the mid to upper 80s with a few locations breaking into the low 90s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are once again expected tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s with our urban areas seeing lows in the mid/upper 60s thanks to the urban heat island. On Monday surface pressures will be decreasing but the upper ridge will still be in place from Ontario through the Ohio Valley to the Gulf.
A Pacific cold front has cleared the Colorado front range and the Laramie Ranges triggering thunderstorm activity which will carry east into wrn Nebraska this evening. Winds aloft, although very strong, are unidirectional supporting storm splitting and the warm air advection ahead of the Pacific cold front appears limited to sern Colorado- aimed at nwrn KS and swrn Nebraska. A check on the RAP model shows this front stationary late Monday but winds at the lower levels are not backed.
Satellite imagery denotes an anti-clockwise rotation consistent with an area of high pressure over Idaho and eastern Oregon. This low has produced showers across our area for the last couple of days and will finally exit the area today to the east.
A cold front arrives for the second half of the week. Strong ridging aloft will suppress the potential for strong convection providing plenty of subsidence during the evening hours. Chance for showers increases Monday, more certain across the eastern mountains and eastern half of the lowlands where diurnal heating, lingering moisture, and a nearby frontal boundary interact to each other. Upper ridging slides eastward Monday night, pushing the front away from the area.
On Monday, cold front will stall across southeastern forecast area and then begin to retreat as a warm front Monday afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) Water vapor loop this afternoon shows an upper low along the Lower Texas Coast with a large surge of tropical moisture moving into Texas.
348 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will linger across the region through the middle of the week. Broad mid-level ridging will remain across the region tonight. At the sfc, the center of high pressure is expected to remain well to the west as a broad trough remains across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and Georgia. Mid-level ridging will prevail across the region. At the surface, high pressure will persist with plentiful dry air and subsidence.
247 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Quiet weather continues across the ArkLaMiss region this afternoon with high pressure dominating the pattern. An area of mid-level spin associated with low pressure off the southern tip of Texas and an area of low pressure diving south along the Eastern Seaboard sit on either side of the ridge of high pressure and drier air extending from the Caribbean northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The lowered forecast MinTs and residual moisture and light winds in the region will support a chance for some patchy fog especially in far southern Mississippi and in low lying areas elsewhere. Tomorrow should be similar to today with just a slight eastward shift in the ridge axis.