Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
558 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 The upper low continues to slowly move east and southeast into the Texas Panhandle with the back end across northwest Colorado through central Wyoming. RAP QG fields showing increasing subsidence taking over this afternoon and tonight as high pressure ridging aloft builds over Colorado. Despite the heavier snow, most roadways are now mostly wet, except still some slushy and slick conditions possible over elevated/bridge surfaces. Warmer temperatures expected on Friday with 40s (snow covered areas from Denver southward over Palmer Divide) and 50s elsewhere over the plains. The weekend should be fairly quiet with an upper level ridge building across the region. Temperatures should make it into the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area with mild temperatures across the high country.
As yesterday's trough continues to push eastward, gusty northerly winds will continue to linger down the Colorado River Valley, specifically around the Laughlin/Bullhead City area, where infrequent and isolated gusts in excess of 40 mph may be possible through the afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be a few degrees below average due to cold air advection in the wake of yesterday's trough. Ridging will build back in in over the region as we head into the weekend, with a weak disturbance moving through tomorrow afternoon.
Near surface dewpoint temperatures continue to hover in the low 70s, which have held low temperatures in the mid-70s over the past few days. The low temps are 5-8 degrees above normal for the date, depending on location. As the Atlantic ridge continues to build back over the Keys and South Florida, the moisture overhead should be shunted to our north, and drier air will advect into the area along the base of the ridge.
828 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will cross over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
/Issued 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022/ A deepening low pressure system pushing through the southern Plains tonight will lift into the Great Lakes region by tomorrow night. The attendant cold front will push across the Gulf Coast states with prefrontal convection approaching the area by late morning.
729 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Warm weather will be interrupted by a passing weekend low pressure system. Quiet, warm weather will continue to persist Thursday night into early Friday morning as a ridge amplifies over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system will eject out of the Central Plains and cross the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley late Friday, pulling an associated cold front.
Surface ridging is still expected to move over the region, and raises the potential for additional stratus, and ground fog (possibly dense) would be possible where clearing occurs along the ridge axis. Will see south winds develop across eastern ND tomorrow on the back side of the high and temps climb into the upper 30s to low 40s if and where sunshine breaks through cloud cover.
1055 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will cross over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with readings in the low 50s inland an mid 50s at the coast. Expect these winds to lull early Friday before increasing toward Caution levels late in the afternoon Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front to the west. High pressure will move to the east Tonight. An area of low pressure will track east along the Gulf coast Friday, and into region Friday afternoon. Lows Tonight in the lower 50s will be common, except mid 50s coast.
1035 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
836 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Weak high pressure and an upper level ridge will be over the area tonight with fog around daybreak.
553 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure has shifted east into the Southern Plains with predominately north to northwesterly flow settled overhead. Throughout the afternoon, the low to mid-level jet will weaken while traversing across the CWA.
Weak instability under a weak upper level trough is providing a few isolated showers across western and south central portions. Snowpack is going to keep the northeastern portion of the state cooler as high temperatures will ranges form the upper 30s to 40s.
The upper low continues to slowly move east and southeast into the Texas Panhandle with the back end across northwest Colorado through central Wyoming. RAP QG fields showing increasing subsidence taking over this afternoon and tonight as high pressure ridging aloft builds over Colorado. Despite the heavier snow, most roadways are now mostly wet, except still some slushy and slick conditions possible over elevated/bridge surfaces. Warmer temperatures expected on Friday with 40s (snow covered areas from Denver southward over Palmer Divide) and 50s elsewhere over the plains. The weekend should be fairly quiet with an upper level ridge building across the region. Temperatures should make it into the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area with mild temperatures across the high country.
812 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level ridge will offer warm and dry weather today.
513 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof axis crossing the Northern Plains, with short wave ridge over the Northern Rockies. Transitory upper ridge will move across the region tomorrow and result in drier and warmer conditions, with some breezy westerly winds especially across northwest SD.
333 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Expect above normal warmth into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has crossed across West Central Texas early this morning, with strong pressure gradient keeping the gusty winds in place. Cooler today behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to near 70. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure stretching along the Eastern Seaboard dominates weather conditions in the today allowing temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees by the afternoon.
Lingering snow falling from eastern Ford County towards Stafford with the highest amounts thus far in and around Larned in Pawnee County. Gusty north winds up to 30-40 mph will quickly diminish towards sunrise as well as the gradient slacken in wake of the mid level trough supporting the aforementioned snowfall. Sky conditions have started to improve out west as high pressure builds in from eastern Colorado with upper level ridging set to build in across the Rockies and high plains. Temperature wise, behind the cold front from earlier on Thursday, Friday morning lows will start off below freezing in the mid to upper 20s with a warmup into the 50s for much of the CWA minus some upper 40s in the heaviest snowfall mentioned above in Pawnee County.
1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 (This evening through Friday) Gusty west winds will turn to the north/northwest this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area from north to south tonight. Temperatures will be cooler tonight behind the cold front with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 60s. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
1120 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level low was centered over the TX panhandle. Bans of snow continued on the northwestern side of this low from portions of eastern CO into nwrn KS. Lowered the low temperatures tonight to the low to mid 20s across the west and mid to upper 20s east. On Friday, warmer temperatures return to western NE as the upper low moves over MO and IA. Friday night, transitory upper ridging builds across the Central Rockies.
With light winds and clear skies, temperatures will fall to near freezing overnight.
410 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue tonight as low pressure approaches from the area.
With temperatures hovering at or just above freezing across central KS, blowing snow has not reduced visibilities significantly through the night and the blizzard warning may be downgraded or allowed to expire early based on observation trends during the predawn hours. Gusty north winds may persist into the early afternoon hours before the pressure gradient begins to diminish as high pressure builds over the area.
High pressure across the Atlantic is currently building back across the region. Winds have gone from being light and variable to shifting east to southeast and increasing slightly as a result of this ridge building back in. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s, and dewpoints are in the lower 70s. High pressure will remain over the area for the next few days. Another mid-level trough will move northeastward from the Central U.
However, confidence continues to slowly increase that redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms may occur in the afternoon ahead of an impending cold front. The low-lvl wind profile may become increasingly unidirectional if deeper mixing manages to develop, but a narrow belt of backed winds just ahead of the front will create low-lvl shear supportive of tornadoes.
This weekend will be warm and dry as upper level ridging moves in overhead.
Much of north-central Idaho and northwest Montana will receive only small amounts of rain in the lower elevations, a dusting of snow on Lookout and Lolo Passes, and a few inches in the peaks of the Missions, Swans, and Cabinets today. Upper level flow turns southwesterly this evening ahead of another approaching trough of low pressure.
1106 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof axis crossing the Northern Plains, with short wave ridge over the Northern Rockies. Transitory upper ridge will move across the region tomorrow and result in drier and warmer conditions, with some breezy westerly winds especially across northwest SD.
So far, Cando and Langdon have dipped the lowest, down to a quarter mile at times.
126 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
158 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Weak high pressure and an upper level ridge will be over the area tonight with fog around daybreak.
High pressure building into the state by this evening will allow for decreasing winds.
There is the possibility of redevelopment along the cold front Friday afternoon though the latest CAMs are not overly impressive. Will need to keep an eye on winds tomorrow as cold front moves through. We will dry out over the weekend with cooler temperatures.
1129 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure has shifted east into the Southern Plains with predominately north to northwesterly flow settled overhead. Throughout the afternoon, the low to mid-level jet will weaken while traversing across the CWA.
Winds should weaken over the next few hours and continue to weaken further overnight as high pressure builds into the region.
233 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas.
Expect warmer weather and lighter winds for Friday.
(Today and tonight) The mid-level cyclone is moving across north central Oklahoma/ south central Kansas and will move northeast into Missouri this morning. There will be the potential of snow mixing with the rain in northern Oklahoma this morning, mainly underneath the cold mid-level temperatures of the mid-level cyclone or potentially with some heavier precipitation that can cool the column enough to support snow, but low-level temperatures only marginally support snow and the precipitation intensity is decreasing in western areas where it is a little cooler.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 51 61 41 65 / 80 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 53 62 41 62 / 50 60 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 51 61 41 64 / 70 70 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 53 64 40 58 / 50 50 20 10 10 TN.
258 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 A dry northwesterly flow aloft is expected as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Otherwise warmer today with high temperatures running just a few degrees below normal.
There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms especially along and south of a warm front that is expected to lift northward through the region.
Winds should weaken over the next few hours and continue to weaken further overnight as high pressure builds into the region. (This afternoon through Friday night) A potent short wave trough is presently transversing west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. A strong mid-tropospheric jet core is located over the lower Trans Pecos and the southern Permian Basin, and subsidence along with downward momentum transfer is present. The short wave trough will sweep east quickly, and surface anticyclogenesis will commence shortly over the region, resulting in a veering of the wind as a cold front moves south overnight. Highs tomorrow will likewise be cooler than today, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Eastern portions of the forecast area will remain under greater cloud cover today, along northwest edge of storm system which will be tracking slowly toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, with north-northeast flow around this storm system bringing a wedge of cooler air southward across MN/western IA. Meanwhile, mid- upper level ridging building northward behind this system will begin spreading warmer air into western/central SD. This leaves a fairly tight thermal gradient across the forecast area today, so confidence in temperatures is on the lower side, but will continue to favor cooler than NBM across the east, and warmer than NBM across our western counties where sunshine will be more prevalent. Given dry air mass in place across the area, seems favorable for optimal radiative cooling and will hedge overnight lows generally in the lower-mid 20s, closer to the NBM 25th percentile.
Intense dynamic lift along the northern flank of the low along with increasing 850-700mb frontogenetical forcing will support precip re-developing from ICT to TOP through sunrise with the northern precip shield expected to gradually weaken with time as the forcing shifts southeast.
A cooler northeasterly flow underneath the ridge will keep zones east of the James Valley in the 40s to around 50 today.
Clouds and a few sprinkles this evening are accompanying a weak upper trough moving through the interior Pac NW. VFR with pockets of MVFR conditions due to lowering clouds and light precipitation generally over the higher terrain north of a line from KBKE-KMYL through 18/12z as a weak front slides over the region.
241 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas.
In addition to the rain, northeasterly winds will be increasing this morning as the pressure gradient with the low tightens. Heading into Saturday, there is a chance for some wet snow to mix with the ongoing rain mainly for areas north of I-80 where overnight low temperatures are expected to be close to, if not slightly below freezing. Skies will also begin to clear late in the day, but temperatures will be cooler than seen the past few days with highs only topping out in the mid-40s.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures today and Saturday, along with another round of isolated showers later today and this evening. Currently, S/WV mid level ridge building into the Dakotas, with southerly return flow across the region. For today, WAA continues to expand eastward across the local area, along with increasing boundary layer mixing ahead of another embedded S/WV mid level trough.
High pressure moves east of the area late this afternoon and evening and all terminals become light and southerly. (Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures this morning are expected to be around freezing for most with continued north winds behind yesterday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday night rebound and almost all locations should remain above freezing overnight Friday. Mid-level ridging returns by Saturday and afternoon temperatures respond accordingly. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are anticipated and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande should climb into the 80s.
412 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Weak ridging has moved in from the west overnight, but an embedded weak perturbation currently over northern Utah/southeastern Idaho will move through today with mostly mid to high clouds. With a ridge building in tonight, drying out the air aloft, strong radiation cooling will give us a cool start to Saturday, especially in the colder mountain valleys with some snow cover. Look for temperatures to warm rapidly after sunrise Saturday as the ridge builds in over the region. Southwest breezes will pick up late in the day with the approaching trough from the west and the ridge sliding eastward.
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Expect above normal warmth into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
A cold front will sweep across the state today with winds shifting to the W/NW with gusts aoa 25 knots this afternoon. By afternoon, only PoP chances remaining should be over Nrn sections of the state as moisture wraps around the backside of the departing low pressure system. Heading into Saturday, upper level ridging and associated large scale subsidence will begin to build in from the W as Fridays unsettled weather exits the region. High pressure at the surface will move into the area and abundant sunshine will return.
Guidance remains in good agreement in building an upper ridge as it moves through the western US in a progressive flow regime.
Windy conditions behind the low pressure system today.
High pressure will build into the area later today as a weak trough exits the area.
518 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Not a whole lot to discuss in the near term forecast, as ridging has developed across the region. Saturday will be warmer and dry during the day.
Similar temperatures will be near that or slightly cooler for northwest WI. A strong low pressure system moving up along the Mississippi Valley will provide mostly cloudy skies to northwest WI as the low pressure travels eastward and transitions into an elongated trough. As the low pressure circulates and moves eastward, the high pressure ridge is expected to slowly pivot to become more northeast to southwest axis from the Arrowhead to Brainerd MN. The deciding factor as to how much fog will develop will depend on what cloud cover is lingering from the previously mentioned low pressure system.
621 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front has crossed across West Central Texas early this morning, with strong pressure gradient keeping the gusty winds in place. Cooler today behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
Early morning surface map shows the cold front has progressed to around I-72, linked to low pressure in eastern Oklahoma. The front is expected to drift a bit back to the north as the low moves to near Springfield by early evening. However, high-res model guidance brings in additional showers and a few storms late afternoon and early evening to the east of the low. Though temperatures will not be as warm as the last couple days, much of the forecast area will be in the warmer sector, with mid 50s to lower 60s for highs. A significant warmup takes place during the latter part of the weekend, as upper level ridging builds across the Plains.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has crossed across West Central Texas early this morning, with strong pressure gradient keeping the gusty winds in place. Cooler today behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
636 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue tonight as low pressure approaches from the area. This low will track through the Great Lakes Saturday offering lingering showers.
Low pressure moving into southwest Missouri early this morning is forecast to shift northeast into the St. The approach and passage of the low and its trailing front will result in a couple periods of showers and thunderstorms today.
413 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low near Tulsa at 0830Z / 330 AM CDT. A secondary severe threat will develop nearer to the upper low, as it tracks east through the mid-MS River valley this afternoon. The surface pressure gradient on the back side of the upper low will bring winds near, but not likely in exceedance of Wind Advisory criteria (25 mph sustained, 39 mph gusts) over northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN this afternoon and early evening. Following the departure of the upper low, tranquil weather will prevail over the weekend.
Lingering snow falling from eastern Ford County towards Stafford with the highest amounts thus far in and around Larned in Pawnee County. Gusty north winds up to 30-40 mph will quickly diminish towards sunrise as well as the gradient slacken in wake of the mid level trough supporting the aforementioned snowfall. Sky conditions have started to improve out west as high pressure builds in from eastern Colorado with upper level ridging set to build in across the Rockies and high plains.
Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure stretching along the Eastern Seaboard dominates weather conditions in the today allowing temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees by the afternoon. Then, the aforementioned ridge gives in to an approaching broad area of low pressure overnight and into Saturday.
947 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Expect above normal warmth into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
Deep layer ridging is moving in from the east and settling across our area this morning. Dry air associated with said aforementioned ridging will severely limit the boundary layer moisture. Ridge will retreat again back to the east late Saturday in advance of an approaching upper level trough currently situated over Oklahoma. Ridging will retreat back to the east late Saturday in advance of an approaching weather system currently situated over Oklahoma.
455 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. Large scale ridge builds over the Rockies/Northern Plains Friday into Saturday as trof digs into the western CONUS.
326 AM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Not a whole lot to discuss in the near term forecast, as ridging has developed across the region. Saturday will be warmer and dry during the day.
302 AM PDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Temperatures warm Friday ahead of the next low pressure to encounter the area for the weekend. ushering cooler temperatures, gusty winds and potential aviation and recreation impacts due to snow showers for Saturday.
409 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures today and Saturday, along with another round of isolated showers later today and this evening. Currently, S/WV mid level ridge building into the Dakotas, with southerly return flow across the region. For today, WAA continues to expand eastward across the local area, along with increasing boundary layer mixing ahead of another embedded S/WV mid level trough.
727 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Expect above normal warmth into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
Adverse flying conditions are expected early this morning until the passage of a cold front, which will produce increasing, veering winds and much clearer skies. /issued 300 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The passage of a cold front through the BRO CWFA will create marine and wildfire hazards today.
High pressure across the Atlantic basin extends to the local waters.
/issued 413 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/ GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low near Tulsa at 0830Z / 330 AM CDT. A secondary severe threat will develop nearer to the upper low, as it tracks east through the mid-MS River valley this afternoon. The surface pressure gradient on the back side of the upper low will bring winds near, but not likely in exceedance of Wind Advisory criteria (25 mph sustained, 39 mph gusts) over northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN this afternoon and early evening. Following the departure of the upper low, tranquil weather will prevail over the weekend.
Dry and average conditions today as a ridge moves through the state.