Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
926 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 A cold front will move through overnight, resulting in scattered snow flurries and possibly a light dusting of snow, mainly north of I-70, as well as one more bitter cold day on Friday.
An upper level trof will drop from the central plains into the Midsouth Friday morning.
102 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 A cold front will sweep through bringing an end to the brief warm up.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight will be quiet with increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. Dew points continue to be low so precipitation isn't expected with this front, just cold temperatures!/JNE/ A very chilly airmass will continue to surge into the forecast area Friday night with temperatures dropping well into the 20s in association with a cold thermal trough forecast to swing across the area.
Any snow to the valley floor will likely hold off until the evening hours, any impactful, accumulating snowfall is expected to remain in the higher terrain. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 45 18 35 23 / 0 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 40 15 31 18 / 0 50 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 41 14 31 19 / 0 50 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 39 12 26 12 / 0 70 60 10 0 TN.
251 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 With the upper trof swinging across the area, and another slug of moisture spilling down from the Great Lakes within it, high res modeling is spitting out a little QPF in our northeast this afternoon. This may translate to another dusting up there, similar to yesterday, so we'll carry a small pop with otherwise flurries accompanying the trof passage. Dew points may drop into the lower single digits in the Ozarks before the close of the day, allowing RH levels to drop into the 20s percentile. Temps will plummet down into the lower half of the teens region-wide tonight.
The upper trough will swing through tonight/tomorrow. As this trough swings through left the flurries across the north and small chance for snow on the Plateau. Expect cigs to fall as a cold front approaches and it's possible that visibility drops slightly as flakes fall.
137 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Current surface map place high pressure across eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota, with warm front across western South Dakota. Warm front shifts eastward today while western CONUS upper level ridge provides robust low level warm advection. Ridge flattens this weekend.
Any snow to the valley floor will likely hold off until the evening hours, any impactful, accumulating snowfall is expected to remain in the higher terrain. VFR conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and evening as an upper trough and strong cold front moves through the area.
1043 PM MST Thu Jan 27 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE The upper low is losing organization and snow showers are losing their cohesiveness and coverage now.
1144 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 A cold front will move through overnight, resulting in scattered snow flurries and possibly a light dusting of snow, mainly north of I-70, as well as one more bitter cold day on Friday.
VFR conditions will continue through the day as a cold front approaches from the north.
Snow showers expected this today as a cold front crosses the region. An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-2" (increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. A few localized spots of 3+ inches can't be ruled in the ridges Light sw showers will continue in the southeastern highlands tonight with a developing east coast low. A more vigorous trough lifts northeast into the Lower Middle Atlantic. The bulk of the PVA will be further to the south with most of the production assisted by the ridges of WV and into PA where another couple inches will be possible.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis is showing a broad amplified ridge over the western portion of the country. Latest guidance is for the ridge to break down allowing for winds to become more westerly by the end of the weekend. At the surface, a few weak troughs will traverse the cwa, with no qpf expected, only a wind shift between west-northwest to west- southwest.
1040 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 Forecast concerns in the short term will will be exiting light wintry mix/light snow and flurries through early this evening then much colder temperatures and Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show a broad trough encompasses a large part of the central and eastern U.
259 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A quiet weather pattern will be in place during the short term period due to upper level ridging setting up over the western U. Otherwise, today will be the last cool day before much warmer weather arrives.
Snow showers expected this today as a cold front crosses the region. An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-2" (increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. A few localized spots of 3+ inches can't be ruled in the ridges. A more vigorous trough lifts northeast into the Lower Middle Atlantic. The bulk of the PVA will be further to the south with most of the production assisted by the ridges of WV and into PA where another couple inches will be possible.
The lowest levels of the atmosphere are very dry right now -- many spots with dew points in the teens and even a few single digits still being seen. However, this will change throughout the day as low levels moisten and the upper level trough to our north swings a couple of impulses at us.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with continued ridging this weekend. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NE 5-10 kt, shifting to SW-SE 5-15 kt after the high pressure center passes Fri.
These ceilings are expected lift or clear out as the cold front moves through the terminal in the next hour or two with the northeasterly wind shift. Current visible satellite shows clearing across our western counties, with just some lower clouds remaining along the lower Trans Pecos. Some light precipitation is expected to develop along and south of the lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell County and parts of the Big Bend. Any precipitation is expected to fall as rain given the warmer temperatures in the region, however, a flurry or two, especially in the higher terrain, cannot be ruled out. Highs Friday afternoon will be slightly cooler post-front, but clearing skies will still provide us a nice afternoon with upper 40s to low 50s.
440 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 IR satellite imagery shows a chilly morning across the region, especially in the high mountain valleys with locations such as Kremmling sitting at -18F. Gusty NW winds are developing over the high mountains this morning with gusts 30-40 mph. An upper level ridges slides eastward in Colorado today advecting in higher heights and warmer 700 mb temperatures. As result, today will be mostly sunny with warmer temperatures.
341 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A short wave trof currently centered through IA will dig southeastward and deepen today. Otherwise a reinforcing cold front associated with this short wave will push through the area this morning accompanied by stratus and rather potent CAA, and lead to well below normal temperatures today.
420 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Weather during the short term remains fairly consistent, as an amplified ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Elsewhere, building heights aloft also carries in warmer temperatures. By Saturday ridging overhead will become suppressed by two low pressure systems at play. Guidance has trended well in line with the southern cut-off low traversing the Great Basin on Saturday. Simultaneously, a low digging along the northern British Columbia province will aid in suppressing the low overhead and turning mid level winds to the northwest.
331 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Not too many concerns in the short term as long wave ridging will keep dry conditions through the period. As for high temperatures, we have tended more toward the higher end of guidance East of the Divide. The warmer areas, like near Buffalo, may crack the 50 degree mark Friday or Saturday. With warmer air aloft, colder weather will remain West of the Divide with deeper inversions and deeper snowpack.
219 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Upper level ridging moves into the area today and will make for a relatively pleasant weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure will keep things quiet to start the weekend.
323 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Not too many concerns in the short term as long wave ridging will keep dry conditions through the period. As for high temperatures, we have tended more toward the higher end of guidance East of the Divide. The warmer areas, like near Buffalo, may crack the 50 degree mark Friday or Saturday. With warmer air aloft, colder weather will remain West of the Divide with deeper inversions and deeper snowpack.
309 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Upper level ridge over the Idaho/Nevada/Oregon triple point this morning with very strong high pressure over Idaho and even 1050mb observed in SE Idaho.
High pressure will settle into the area for the rest of the week with slightly warmer temperatures and clear skies.
Upper level trough still swinging through the area along with a north to northeast wind has caused stratus to expand across much of the cwa overnight. With the clouds this has kept temperatures much warmer than earlier expected. Today: Skies should become sunny as clouds depart to the east as the morning progresses and the upper level trough shifts east. This occurs as winds turn northwest and ushers colder/drier air into the area, as Canadian high pressure settles into the cwa. Tonight: High pressure ridge over the area will gradually shift east with surface winds becoming light southerly.
419 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough and associated cold front to continue exiting the state to the south.
404 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Weather during the short term remains fairly consistent, as an amplified ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Elsewhere, building heights aloft also carries in warmer temperatures. By Saturday ridging overhead will become suppressed by two low pressure systems at play. Guidance has trended well in line with the southern cut-off low traversing the Great Basin on Saturday. Simultaneously, a low digging along the northern British Columbia province will aid in suppressing the low overhead and turning mid level winds to the northwest.
As high pressure builds into the region, skies will become clear and winds will go light/variable tonight.
546 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Aviation - Tranquil Weather Through Saturday Afternoon - A high pressure ridge will bring tranquil and cold wx through Saturday afternoon. - Weak System To Bring Light Snow Saturday Night - A weak low pressure system moving in from the NW will bring potential for scattered light snow showers Saturday night. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions).
545 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (Today) High pressure will reign supreme today, with afternoon high temperatures slightly below the seasonal averages for late January.
315 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Its quite a bit warmer early this morning than we were 24 hours ago. Most of the area is above freezing, generally in the mid to upper 30s. Portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may dip into the upper 20s, but most of the Midsouth should see sunrise temperatures in the low to middle 30s. A midlevel trough will shift across the Mississippi River valley today. A weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough may be enough to produce a few sprinkles near the Tennessee river this evening, but moisture levels remain very low so widespread precipitation looks unlikely. A cold front associated with the midlevel trough will move through the Midsouth this afternoon. A ridge will slowly build into the Midsouth from the west Saturday.
442 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Patchy freezing fog will remain possible early this morning in parts of southwest Oklahoma due to lingering snow cover.
(Today) High pressure will reign supreme today, with afternoon high temperatures slightly below the seasonal averages for late January.
At the surface, low pressure from northern Saskatchewan will very gradually dig down towards northern Minnesota today and through the night tonight. An associated warm frontal boundary, already situated over far southwestern North dakota, will slowly slide to the east becoming quasi-stationary at times. As a result, the common "warmer southwest, cooler east theme" will continue. The eastern forecast area starts with cooler temperatures generally in the single digits above zero, while the western forecast area is around 15 to 25 above this morning. Warmer air filtering into the west will pump highs to near 40 degrees in the southwest, while the locations in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains will struggle to reach 20 degrees.
148 AM PST Fri Jan 28 2022 Blocking high pressure will maintain dry and generally quiet weather through the end of January. Low pressure and a cold front will bring increased winds and cooler temperatures for the start of February, but the storm track looks unfavorable for bringing meaningful precipitation to the Sierra or western Nevada. A ridge of high pressure rebuilding overhead today then shifting to the Great Basin Saturday will keep the ongoing pattern of mild daytime temperatures with chilly nights going through the weekend.
Upper level ridge over the area will shift southeast and weaken on Saturday.
Temperatures are more likely to be slightly above normal Saturday with thermal ridge aloft transitioning over our CWA. There is potential for warmer locations to reach 30 Saturday (most likely in the southern RRV).
Temperatures have dropped in northeastern Alabama into the lower 30s with clear skies earlier this evening. Further west, ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough axis, temperatures remain warm in the the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. However, this pre-frontal trough axis is slow to push east in most guidance, so there looks to be a window for some heating before a stronger and more quickly moving arctic front over northern Missouri pushes southeast toward central Alabama later this afternoon. Around midnight, expect wind chill values to drop into the teens and bottom out in the single digits to near zero degrees in the higher elevations of northeastern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee around daybreak on Saturday. This should allow for enough warm air and weak moisture advection for lows to remain a bit warmer, mainly in the lower to mid 20s.
Snow expected this today as a cold front crosses the region. An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-2" (increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. A few localized spots of 3+ inches can't be ruled in the ridges. A more vigorous trough lifts northeast into the Lower Middle Atlantic. The bulk of the PVA will be further to the south with most of the production assisted by the ridges of WV and into PA where another couple inches will be possible.
For today, high pressure ridging will sweep through the Northland, leading to quiet conditions. Some moistening of the lower levels is possible late this morning into the afternoon, which could squeeze out some flurries/light snow, given the cold thermal profile hovering within the dendritic growth zone.
Ridging and light variable winds this morning have kept stratus to a minimum. This can be attributed to the persistent ridging regime that has trained over the PacificNW for the past few days. The omega blocking pattern has maintained temperate and fair weather conditions for the CWA. Upstream of the current ridging pattern is a trough that will isolate itself into a cutoff low which will veer towards central and southern California over the weekend. The blocking ridge will progress eastward towards the Great Basin, lending to further deformation of the high pressure regime.
The exception is low clouds and fog/freezing fog mostly in the Umpqua and Coquille basins. A strong upper level ridge is in place over the western US.
As high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and the pressure gradient eases up some, temperatures should plummet into the lower to mid 20s areawide.
An upper trough was nearby to the northwest. During the day, the upper trough will deepen a bit as its axis moves across the forecast area. Meanwhile, convergence will increase along the surface cold front as it moves south across the area. Forcing from the upper trough and surface front will be enough for some chance category PoPs. For now went with the high end of the chance category across the southwest. Temperatures are starting out warmer than expected, but cold advection behind the cold front will keep them in check today. High pressure building in will diminish winds though, so wind chills will only get into the single digits below zero northeast.
307 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Upper level trough still swinging through the area along with a north to northeast wind has caused stratus to expand across much of the cwa overnight. With the clouds this has kept temperatures much warmer than earlier expected. Today: Skies should become sunny as clouds depart to the east as the morning progresses and the upper level trough shifts east. This occurs as winds turn northwest and ushers colder/drier air into the area, as Canadian high pressure settles into the cwa. Tonight: High pressure ridge over the area will gradually shift east with surface winds becoming light southerly.
SOme light snow is possible in the afternoon across the north along a weak warm front.
Main change was to up snow totals along the ridges in the southeastern CWA. Amounts in other areas will be less, mainly around an inch or less, as a cold front continues to sink across the region. Drier air will slowly work in from the northwest, cutting off the snow with time, although accumulation will continue into the evening in the ridges, as noted. A more vigorous trough lifts northeast into the Lower Middle Atlantic. The bulk of the PVA will be further to the south with most of the production assisted by the ridges of WV and into PA where another couple inches will be possible.
542 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A short wave trof currently centered through IA will dig southeastward and deepen today. Otherwise a reinforcing cold front associated with this short wave will push through the area this morning accompanied by stratus and rather potent CAA, and lead to well below normal temperatures today. A return of veering south to westerly lower tropospheric flow on Saturday and low level WAA will bring warmer temperatures, especially across central and eastern MO.
417 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Current surface map place high pressure across eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota, with warm front across western South Dakota. Warm front shifts eastward today while western CONUS upper level ridge provides robust low level warm advection. Ridge flattens this weekend.
Strong ridging over the southwest with a quasi-omega synoptic pattern setup will bring continued above normal temperatures through most of the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared West Central Texas early this morning, with a little colder conditions in its wake. Satellite also shows a small area of fog near and just east of Abilene in the higher elevations along the Taylor/Jones/Callahan/Shackelford 4 corners area. But will continue to monitor and if it expands in coverage or the visibility drops very much more, will add an area of freezing fog to the forecast. Otherwise, a slightly cooler day upcoming, but with fairly abundant sunshine. Temperatures mainly in the low to mid 50s. Another decent radiational cooling night tonight, with lows int he low to mid 20 across the lower areas and river valleys. Lows in the lower 30s across some of the higher elevation hilltops.
Details: Dry north to northwest flow aloft will stay in place through Saturday as a broad upper level trough over the Midwest slowly advances east becoming a high amplitude trough over the eastern CONUS by Friday night. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge currently over the west coast states will shift east over the Four Corners region. The northwest winds today actually help push the cooler airmass eastward as H5 heights increase markedly.
The main challenge today and Saturday is high temperatures - just how warm will we get? Persistent low to mid-level WAA will set the stage for abnormal warmth as an upper-level ridge slowly shifts east across the Central US.
A ridge of high pressure over much of the western U.
/Today through Saturday/ By this morning, the Four-States region will start to get clipped by a rather robust long wave trough moving through the midwest. This is the same trough that will help potentially bring feet of snow to the northeast. Highs today will range from the low to mid-50s, with lows tonight ranging in the mid to upper-20s. Given a tight pressure gradient with this trough, gusty winds will also be possible into the evening hours. By Saturday however, the trough begins to slide to our east, which will open up some areas to return to average temperatures. Look for afternoon highs in the low-60s in our western zones, and low-50s in our eastern zones.
/issued 315 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022/ Its quite a bit warmer early this morning than we were 24 hours ago. Most of the area is above freezing, generally in the mid to upper 30s. Portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may dip into the upper 20s, but most of the Midsouth should see sunrise temperatures in the low to middle 30s. A midlevel trough will shift across the Mississippi River valley today. A weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough may be enough to produce a few sprinkles near the Tennessee river this evening, but moisture levels remain very low so widespread precipitation looks unlikely. A cold front associated with the midlevel trough will move through the Midsouth this afternoon. A ridge will slowly build into the Midsouth from the west Saturday.
510 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A quiet weather pattern will be in place during the short term period due to upper level ridging setting up over the western U. Otherwise, today will be the last cool day before much warmer weather arrives.
519 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared West Central Texas early this morning, with a little colder conditions in its wake. Satellite also shows a small area of fog near and just east of Abilene in the higher elevations along the Taylor/Jones/Callahan/Shackelford 4 corners area. But will continue to monitor and if it expands in coverage or the visibility drops very much more, will add an area of freezing fog to the forecast. Otherwise, a slightly cooler day upcoming, but with fairly abundant sunshine. Temperatures mainly in the low to mid 50s. Another decent radiational cooling night tonight, with lows int he low to mid 20 across the lower areas and river valleys. Lows in the lower 30s across some of the higher elevation hilltops.
However, warmer temperatures will develop for Saturday afternoon.
/JNE/ Cold temperatures will be on tap across the region today! Highs will mainly be in the 40s for most areas with a few spots across the south reaching the low 50s. As high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and the pressure gradient eases up some, temperatures should plummet into the lower to mid 20s areawide.
215 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Plenty of returns on radar this afternoon as the upper level trough axis swings through the area. After temperatures crept into the lower 40s, evaporative cooling has helped drop those temperatures back into the 30s.