Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. As the surface cold front moves through the region this morning, more comfortable dew points (in the 50s) will move into the region. With 850 mb temperatures about 3 to 4C cooler this afternoon, high temperatures will only range from the mid-70s to mid-80s. With drier dew points across the region tonight, low temperatures on Tuesday morning will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. During this time, a low pressure system will move eastward through southern Canada towards the northeast coast of the US. A trough of low pressure will move into/pass through the area Tuesday for increasing mid- level clouds and isolated to scattered morning -shra.
We are a bit warmer than expected today and with the increased humidity, we have been seeing some heat indices reading around 105- 109 degrees. Tomorrow will be pretty similar to today as an upper level low sinks south across the area. Showers and storms will develop over the waters and gradually move inland throughout the day with the highest chances over the Victoria Crossroads where PWATs will remain slightly over 2".
Upper level heights will continue to decrease today as a ridge of high pressure breaks down due to a trough moving off the northern plains. A cold front attendant the upper level trough remains well to the north today. Thunderstorms should begin to fire over the next couple of hours mainly off the Plateau area and in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 73 87 73 / 20 60 30 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 90 72 87 72 / 20 70 40 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 71 87 71 / 20 60 40 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 68 86 68 / 30 60 40 60 40.
Lows should settle into the lower to mid 60s. Mid/upper level ridge axis slides eastward for Tuesday and should provide a boost in temperatures by a couple degrees. Will continue to lean on the upper end of guidance for temperatures with good mixing and a bias in the operational models to the cooler side compared to their ensemble counterparts. Model forecast soundings suggest moisture depth should limit this growth, but with enough hints in the high- res guidance, will add slight chance POPs to the forecast in addition to the likely increase in cumulus.
The surface boundary that brought heavy rainfall last night and early today is now in southeastern KS as an upper trough continues its trek eastward across Canada.
first, the subtropical ridge aloft over the Southern Plains, followed by a westward translation of this ridge as a short wave trough digs southeastward over the Southern Plains, then followed by a eastward translation of the aforementioned subtropical ridge back over the Southern Plains. The subtropical ridge will otherwise remain intact for the next few days.
945 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Influence of the weak trough on our weather will dwindle over the next few days, as the stage is set for building high pressure and rising temperatures through late week.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s thus far on our way toward to upper 80s to lower 90s by later this afternoon. As far as convection is concerned, the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity continues to reside across SE Louisiana eastward along the immediate Gulf coastal region due to a meandering mid/upper level low along the Lower MS River Valley. Meanwhile, upper ridging centered across the TX Panhandle Region continues to influence the NW half of our region. Therefore, PoPs have been oriented much lower across these areas with mainly just slight chances for afternoon convection whereas PoPs progressively increase the farther SE you go across our region where the low pressure aloft will continue to help initiate showers and storms through the remainder of today across the SE half of the region.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.
With high pressure settling over western and central ND tonight, think in general lows will be similar to last night west of the Highway 83 corridor, and a little lower than last night to the east. Quiet weather with high pressure continues through the short term forecast period. With a ridge continuing to build in, temperatures should continue to increase tomorrow (especially west).
528 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Upper ridging continues across much of the western CONUS, with quiet and weak northwest flow across the CWA. A broad upper low is sitting across the central to southern Pac coast. The upper low will drift northeastward overnight and through Tuesday, reaching the region by the afternoon.
Radar is already showing rain developing over central and southeast Missouri in the warm air advection ahead of the trough. This area of precipitation will continue to expand in areal coverage as a warm front moves across the area this morning. Temperatures have been warming overnight, and are currently near freezing along and east of the Mississippi River. Will keep with a rain/snow mix along ahead of the warm front this morning which could result in up to 1/2" of accumulation over southwest Illinois. Precipitation should be all rain by afternoon as the warm front moves off to the east, but then a cold front currently over the Plains will move southeast across the CWA later today and tonight. Highs today will be above normal behind the warm front.
Expect a few showers today as low pressure moves through the state. Otherwise, high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine this week.
405 AM PST Sun Feb 9 2020 Cooler with windy conditions today.
High pressure will remain centered just offshore with dry weather today and Monday.
A cold front will move through the terminals tonight shifting the winds to the northeast. /issued 331 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020/ Upper trough dives down across CA today developing into a cut off low before moving into Mexico.
Upper level flow has become more zonal across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS ahead of a lee trough that is progged to move across the Plains today. Warm and moist air will be advected into the area by a 50-60 kt low level jet ahead of the lee trough. A cold front moves from northwest to southeast through the area today. Highs in north central KS will only be near 40 with highs in east central KS in the low 50s. Strong winds look to persist through the day as the lee trough deepens, although southerly winds will give way to gusty northwest winds after the passing of the cold front.
358 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Upper level flow has become more zonal across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS ahead of a lee trough that is progged to move across the Plains today. Warm and moist air will be advected into the area by a 50-60 kt low level jet ahead of the lee trough. A cold front moves from northwest to southeast through the area today. Highs in north central KS will only be near 40 with highs in east central KS in the low 50s. Strong winds look to persist through the day as the lee trough deepens, although southerly winds will give way to gusty northwest winds after the passing of the cold front.
535 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Today: The cold front is on our doorsteps as of 3am and will traverse through the forecast area over the next few hours. This cold front will bring in cooler air and temperatures will in the 30s across the area. The combination of the cooler air and wind will cause wind chill temps to be in the teens to low 20s across the area.
This moist airmass will spread northeast into the Ozarks today and intersect a cold front over the southern plains and mid MS River valley. This cold front will drop south behind a weak northern wave late tonight, eventually making to the I-40 corridor in the Midsouth by midmorning Monday. The southward advance of the cold front will slow and likely stall over central MS Monday night, as it becomes parallel to the midlevel flow.
242 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure and colder temperatures settle across the region through.
The energy and organization with this next disturbance is weak at best, which seems to be represented in the models with scattered, hit-or-miss snow showers amounting to no more than a quarter of an inch or a half of an inch outside the higher elevation areas.
331 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Upper trough dives down across CA today developing into a cut off low before moving into Mexico.
754 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 North winds will increase into the 18 to 23 knot range with higher gusts behind a cold front this morning. Split flow pattern becomes more apparent in mid levels through tonight as 500mb trough digs south along west coast. Nearly zonal flow as noted on 00z KAMA RAOB will gradually back to southwesterly as 500mb trough strengthens and begins to cutoff near southern CA. A separate wave will eject out ahead of the low from the southern tip of Baja, further enhancing return flow going into Monday. At the surface, a cold front is already advancing south through KGLD and KPUX.
Breezy conditions are expected during the TAF period courtesy of the interaction between high and low pressure.
541 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 An area of low pressure was observed over south-central South Dakota early this morning with a broad area of snowfall extending into eastern South Dakota, central and southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and western Wisconsin. As this low tracks along the Minnesota/Iowa border this morning and into Wisconsin this afternoon, light snow will spread across southern Pine County and much of northwest Wisconsin. Latest model runs have shifted the track of the low slightly to the south and pulled the snow slightly south as well versus previous forecasts. High pressure will pass to the south tonight with partly to mostly clear skies in place. As this cold front moves into northcentral Minnesota Monday afternoon, snow showers will become possible across much of northeastern Minnesota.
600 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure will prevail into Monday before a cold front nears and then stalls.
1045 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 As expected, the cold front moved through overnight bringing plenty of snow to our northern valleys and mountains. I'd expect that by 10AM the highway should just be wet as all the snow melts, if not a bit before. Even as the cold front weakens, there'll still be enough frontogenetical forcing to keep some precip going. Flow around the closed low to our west will cause southwesterly flow over the San Juans and with the cold front/boundary dropping into that area, some decent snow production is expected.
239 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough moving across the northern Plains, trailing southwestward into the Intermountain West. At the western end of this trough is the strong wave that was over the Pacific Northwest yesterday. This elongated trough will mostly shear apart tonight into tomorrow with the southwestern appendage cutting off over southern California/ northern Baja.
1244 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure will prevail into Monday before a cold front nears and then stalls.
A gradual increase in NE-E winds is currently underway, thanks to a strong high pressure cell moving east across the Carolinas toward the Atlantic.
1258 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
Precipitation will become more widespread over the next few hours as a cold front moves southeast into the area, with a few thunderstorms possible from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
1235 PM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows split flow with a deepening trough over the West Coast extending southwest from the rest of the trough over the Northern Plains. Due to the CAA today, lows will be cooler than last night. Monday night the upper level trough that is currently over the West Coast will move onto the Southern Plains. As it does so the northern edge of the trough will graze the southern part of the forecast area.
1216 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Updated forecast issued to remove Dense Fog/Freezing Dense Fog wording from products. /Issued 323 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020/ Dense freezing fog and dense fog advisory until 900 am this morning. The next round of wet weather will begin on Monday as a slow moving cold front drifts toward the area with deep moisture in the SW flow aloft moving over N GA and maybe portions of central GA by days end.
Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail into early this evening as a cold front moves across the area. Precipitation will become more widespread over the next few hours as a cold front moves southeast into the area, with a few thunderstorms possible from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
Upper ridging to build into the region from the N Carib Monday night through mid week. At the surface, high pressure in the W Atlantic stretches into the Deep South with easterly low level flow across the FL Peninsula.
SHRA will slowly become more widespread later this afternoon and especially overnight as a cold front drop SE through the area.
237 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 A fast moving low pressure system will pass north of the region tonight and Monday, bringing light accumulations to the northern mountains before transitioning to plain rain by early Monday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 43 57 54 63 / 10 20 100 100 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 40 53 50 60 / 10 10 100 100 70 Oak Ridge, TN 52 40 52 49 59 / 10 20 100 100 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 36 52 48 57 / 10 10 100 100 70 NC.
The upper level pattern across the CONUS has transitioned to a more quasi-zonal flow regime with the western trough axis extending through the Intermountain West into northern CA. At the surface, a cold front has made its way through the forecast area and is now stretched from southeastern KS into western MO and just east of Kansas City. With at least some blanket effect of the cloud coverage, have only gone with lows tonight into the low and mid 20s.
with low pressure frontal trough over W TX/OK/E KS this morning.
Showers develop before daybreak for VCSH at most locations, the becoming more prevalent as warm front lifts north through the region through the morning hours.
At this time, not seeing much drizzle or freezing drizzle in the weak convergence upstream associated with the low pressure and the loss of mid-level moisture and some ice introduction into the cloud bearing layer. Otherwise, subsidence associated with high pressure will spread into the area later tonight and linger through Monday. Low pressure will pass to the north of the Great Lakes Monday night night with a weak mid-level short wave moving through WI.
1140 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Today: The cold front is on our doorsteps as of 3am and will traverse through the forecast area over the next few hours. This cold front will bring in cooler air and temperatures will in the 30s across the area. The combination of the cooler air and wind will cause wind chill temps to be in the teens to low 20s across the area.
142 PM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 WV imagery this afternoon shows an elongated, positively tilted trof extending from CA newd into the nrn Plains. A potent upper- level jet is evident on the upstream side of the trof, along with a somewhat disorganized vort max centered near the AB/SK border. As cooler midlevel air arrives tomorrow, could also see the development of some lapse rate driven snow showers during the aftn/eve over much of wrn SD.
A cold front will move into HOB/MAF between 00Z-02Z/Mon, respectively, with wind shifting ne near 15kts sustained. A cold front will move through the terminals tonight shifting the winds to the northeast. /issued 331 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020/ Upper trough dives down across CA today developing into a cut off low before moving into Mexico.
1050 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Breezy NE-E winds today around high pressure to the north. Max temps will be slightly warmer today, generally in the mid 70s, except lower 70s along the Volusia coast. Strengthening high pressure well to the north will produce breezy E/ENE winds today with the strongest winds in the VRB-SUA corridor.
1025 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure should return mainly dry conditions most of today until crossing low pressure results in widespread precipitation tonight night through Monday. NW PA, N of a FKL to DUJ line, should see the highest accumulation.
236 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Gusty winds and clouds will continue to diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
Dry and tranquil conditions are likely through the period as a west-southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while much drier air surges into western Kansas in wake of a strong cold frontal passage this morning. Look for lows down into the teens(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 20s(F) in south central Kansas as winds subside becoming light and variable overnight. Expect highs pushing the lower/mid 40s(F) Monday afternoon.
253 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Main concern overnight and Monday are cloud trends and small chance for snow with next short wave/cold front moving through into Monday night. Southern stream remains active moving southwest CONUS trough east over the mid Mississippi River Valley into Midweek.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 57 54 63 48 / 20 100 100 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 53 50 60 46 / 30 100 100 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 40 52 49 59 44 / 60 100 100 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 52 48 57 43 / 10 100 100 70 40 NC.
A gradual increase in NE-E winds is underway, thanks to a strong high pressure cell emerging off the Carolina coast this afternoon.
141 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Low pressure will bring rain and snow chances north of interstate 70 tonight, with widespread rain expected by Monday morning.
258 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Cold front has pushed into parts of northeast OK, and we're finally seeing an increase in showers across the region.
The synoptic pattern over the CONUS consists of a positively tilted longwave trough with a closed low over CA and shallow ridging over the eastern seaboard. At the surface, a low over the Hawkeye State will traverse across the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US while trailing a cold front stretching southeastward into TX. Rain chances will begin to ramp up this evening ahead of the surface cold front. Rain will continue throughout the day Monday but will become lighter and possibly more showery in nature as the actual cold front pushes through central KY.
Weak trough works through the area Monday evening and may see a few flurries across southwest Minnesota.
A cold front currently moving south through the Panhandle has entered the Permian Basin with a passage through much of the region expected this afternoon and evening. A slight chance of freezing rain will exist in our far northwest Permian Basin and northern Lea county areas in the morning at precip onset with temps hovering around freezing to begin the day.
1031 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Upper air analysis depicts a positively tilted trough axis centered over the Northern Plains, trailing back toward the California coast. Broad surface to 700mb frontogenesis continues along the northwestern periphery of the low, providing continued ascent for areas of light-to-moderate snow showers this morning.
237 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Cold front was 30 miles northwest of Haskell county at 2 PM. Another cumulus field was ahead of the cold front in Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Much cooler also Monday with highs from lower 40s north to mid 50s south.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front has now moved into OK county as of 130 PM. Much colder temperatures will follow the cold front for Monday. Some brief freezing rain can't be ruled out over the extreme west through Mon morning but for now it appears not even a glaze will be possible.
415 PM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery revealed a split flow pattern aloft, with a southern stream cutoff low over central CA and progressive northern stream trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Rocky Mountain region. Surface cold front extended from central IA through southeast KS, central OK to eastern NM. Next Alberta clipper and associated cold front is forecast to quickly move to the southeast across MT, WY and the Dakotas Monday. High temperatures Monday will be a few degrees milder for the high plains compared to Sunday.
Surface observations show cold front over southeastern Kansas to Missouri, which is expected to drop into eastern Arkansas by late tonight into tomorrow morning.
248 PM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery revealed a split flow pattern aloft, with a southern stream cutoff low over central CA and progressive northern stream trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Rocky Mountain region. Surface cold front extended from central IA through southeast KS, central OK to eastern NM. Next Alberta clipper and associated cold front is forecast to quickly move to the southeast across MT, WY and the Dakotas Monday. High temperatures Monday will be a few degrees milder for the high plains compared to Sunday.
704 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Low pressure will bring rain and snow chances north of interstate 70 tonight, with widespread rain expected by morning, and tapering off thereafter. Despite this, there will be a few hour window, roughly between 00z-06z, within this warm frontal band where deep moisture and strong lift will allow for a quick few inch snow accumulation in the I-80 corridor, though remaining below advisory levels. Rain will spread areawide along and behind the advancing sfc cold front areawide through the Monday morning. The sfc front will stall across northern WV Monday night as it becomes farther displaced from the low center and upper trough. To the north, high pressure will build in and bring a return to drier conditions.
High pressure moving off the mid Atlantic coast into the Atlantic this evening will maintain a northeast to east wind flow in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore and in the Cautionary range (15 to 20 knots from the easterly surge) over the southern and central offshore Gulf waters the remainder of tonight.
542 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 An area of low pressure centered well south of the Northland will continue to move east and high pressure will build in behind it.
Currently precip tomorrow should remain mostly liquid, though a chance for freezing rain does exist at LBB and PVW between 12Z and 15Z. Cold front has cleared the entire area this afternoon. There is a small window early in the morning where near freezing surface temperatures may overlap with light precipitation leading to the potential for some freezing rain. However, since surface temperatures should be near freezing expect road temperatures to remain above freezing and hence overall impacts should be limited. Elevated surfaces that may cool to below freezing may see some slick spots though so motorists should still use caution.
233 PM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows split flow with a deepening trough over the West Coast extending southwest from the rest of the trough over the Northern Plains. Due to the CAA today, lows will be cooler than last night. Monday night the upper level trough that is currently over the West Coast will move onto the Southern Plains. As it does so the northern edge of the trough will graze the southern part of the forecast area.
The latter half of the forecast continues to hinge on how the 500mb low/trough across the SW CONUS evolves through the middle portion of the week.
534 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough moving across the northern Plains, trailing southwestward into the Intermountain West. At the western end of this trough is the strong wave that was over the Pacific Northwest yesterday. This elongated trough will mostly shear apart tonight into tomorrow with the southwestern appendage cutting off over southern California/ northern Baja.