Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
206 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Upper ridging dominates the upper air pattern as its axis slowly shifts to the east and helps usher in higher temperatures.
Little has changed with the evolution of the high pressure ridge through the weekend. The upper level ridge axis will move over the Northern Rockies late today into Sunday. As the air mass warms via compression under the ridge axis, we expect temperatures to trend 1-3F higher this afternoon. The ridge axis will move along the Continental Divide Sunday afternoon.
316 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide us with light breezes and quiet weather today under a canopy of high clouds. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 80s with comfortable dew points.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s and lows at sunrise should be in the 70s for most locations.
This convection is also on the cusp of the higher PWATs east and drier air west while residing in steeper low and mid-level lapse rates for pulse convection mode.
249 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Another cooler than normal and quiet weather day is expected across central Illinois to start out the weekend.
155 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and remain in place for Saturday. High temperatures will rise into the lower 80s across most areas.
/issued 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ Early afternoon temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s. A stalled cold front is located along the Tennessee Mississippi state line stretching into central Arkansas. Over the weekend, the cold front will remain over the Midsouth while slowly dissipating. A weak trough will approach Sunday. Storms may be enhanced by any weak disturbances migrating through the westerly flow Saturday and more on Sunday as the trough approaches.
These clouds have kept the fog at bay for the most part, but they are helping to make for a very mild start to the morning with 08z temperatures in the low to mid 70s. An upper trough over the Ohio Valley will help to nudge a slow-moving cold front south into the northern portions of our area later today. Clouds will help to keep most locations a little bit cooler today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
258 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure was centered across the area this morning with clear skies. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today than yesterday as weak llvl advection brought warmer temps into the area. We will see a slight increase in southwesterly flow as high pressure pushes east and a wave moves in from the northwest.
With the cold front still to our north, plenty of southerly, moist air will be available to tap into and generate the periods of showers and storms. For Sunday, the main front gets repositioned to the north a touch as the southerly flow over us lifts it back as a warm front.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 86 73 85 / 60 40 70 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 85 72 82 / 40 30 70 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 84 69 83 71 81 / 30 30 70 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 83 69 79 / 30 20 70 60 70.
Southerly return flow persists through Saturday, helping usher in a warmer, slightly more moist air mass. A cold front sweeps across the region on Sunday, bringing the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Although it will be a little warmer this evening than yesterday evening, looks like a comfortable evening as humidity remains low. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s due to a low-level thermal ridge spanning form eastern Montana into central South Dakota. This will move through region with a front bringing cooler temperatures Sunday.
Dry and comfortable today as high pressure builds in from the west and NW flow will keep the humid air away. This may result in a few showers later on Sunday across the higher terrain of WV.
100 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Aviation Clouds have dropped south through nw Lwr MI this evening within H8 thermal trough and the U. Winds have diminished to 5 kts or less and we're headed toward cool, almost chilly, early morning low temps in the lower to mid 50s under ideal radiational cooling set-up. -- Dry weekend -- High pressure will bring dry weather through this weekend. Temperatures this weekend will be very close to normals with highs in the low to middle 80s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will hold on across the BRO CWFA today, producing dry weather will well above normal temperatures. Tonight through Sunday, an inverted mid-level trough with embedded closed low pressure system will gradually move west across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into the east coast of Mexico. Isolated convection will affect the far offshore lower Texas coastal waters tonight, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting all waters of the Lower Texas Coast, and primarily Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, and Hidalgo counties, on Sunday.
The focus is a weak cold front and the upper level forcing is a disturbance dropping southeast in the northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid-80s through the weekend. A warm front sits across northern OK and along the MO/AK border with keeps showers and thunderstorms to our south for the time being. This warm front gradually lifts northward over the weekend.
So diurnal cumulus will fade through early evening as high pressure of 1020 mb moves overhead for the night. Saturday will see less synoptic flow with the ridge in place and allow for a little more inland progression of the lake breeze. MTF Quiet conditions will continue into Sunday, with temps a few degrees warmer and dew points a few degrees higher than Saturday.
Hot and dry weather is in store for the area this weekend thanks to a strong upper ridge. The ridge axis is currently over WA/OR and slowly working its way eastward. Temperatures will peak on Sunday as the upper ridge axis shifts over Idaho. Subsidence associated with the upper ridging, along with light surface winds, will potentially affect air quality as regional wildfires continue to burn.
A digging upper trough that will just glance the area will help to push a weak cold front through North Carolina and towards the Northern Midlands Saturday. The upper trough is not as pronounced as previously forecast, and it rapidly moves out by Sunday. With no strong push along the surface front, the cold front should stall out close to the NC/SC State line, through Saturday night and Sunday, then begin to weaken and track back to the north into Sunday night. With PWAT values will around 2 inches, and storms possible lining up parallel to the cold front, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. A return to more summer time conditions as the upper ridge takes hold again across the western Atlantic and central US. This leaves weak upper troughiness over the region.
Upper level ridge (588+ DAM at 500 MB) builds over Lower Michigan through this evening. 850 MB temps aoa 15 C (per regional 00z GEM) suggests highs in the low to mid 80s will be no problem today. Did not put much stock in the 00z NAM, which appears to be too moist, allowing dew pts to rise into the lower 60s and subsequently develops extensive clouds at the 850 MB level.
Large scale troughing is still in place across the eastern third of the CONUS and is evident in water vapor imagery this afternoon. A recent surface analysis shows relatively little locally besides high pressure and a weak warm front/boundary originating from SW South Dakota that extends southeast and washes out in north- central Nebraska. Aside from those features, we find ourselves on the fringe of deeper cloud cover to the south while still being on the cooler side of the pattern resulting in a beautiful summer day. High-amplitude ridging is depicted to expand from the western third of the CONUS beginning Sunday, as highs breach 90 degrees across much of the area.
A hot airmass ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures to be in the 90s to near 100 for highs today. The cold front will move through NE Montana this afternoon and evening with gusty NW winds. The upper ridge on the west coast will move inland on Sunday.
High pressure at the surface will continue to keep rain south of the area Saturday. Temperatures will start to warm up as an upper level ridge starts to move in from the west.
Sunday Precipitation: Preciptiation chances return Sunday night as an upper level trough and subsequent perturbations sag southeast along northwest flow. The low level increased theta e lobe representative of increased low level moisture interacts into our area Sunday night with a subtle upper level perturbation.
Going into this weekend, looking for increased clearing over the region on Saturday, giving way to a dry and sunny day for Sunday area-wide as high pressure aloft shifts east off the Rockies, allowing for northwest downslope. For temps, the region will see a slightly warmer day going into Saturday as clouds clear. There is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF over the pattern evolution, but the general trend is that the Tri-State area will remain dominated by the ridge pattern.
There is a slight chance for isolated/scattered convective storms, but the instability is weak and accompanied by warmer upper level temperatures. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with highs in the low to mid 90s, and coastal lows in the upper 70s and interior in the lower 70s.
The western ridge/eastern trough upper level pattern that has kept the area under at least modestly cyclonic flow and milder temperatures in recent days looks to last into the early part of the week before the upper level pattern flattens and becomes somewhat more quasizonal, allowing heights over the region to build and deflecting the primary storm track to the north. Some model disagreement on the potential for convection in the hot and humid airmass/perhaps a ridge rider or two late week will necessitate some low pops, but confidence in these is lower than early week chances. Only keeping mention of the lowered vis at LAF where confidence is highest for now but may need to add other sites at a later time should it be needed.
Heading into tomorrow, the upper ridge will stretch a bit farther west and keep the better moisture mostly west of the forecast area. With the return of southwest surface winds and the upper high more overhead, temperatures will warm back into the 90s and be quickly approaching the triple digits in areas across the southeast Texas Panhandle, Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon.
High pressure is still the dominating factor for our weather in the near term. Temperatures today will range from the low to mid 90s with the heat index around 100 degrees this afternoon.
Showers and storms will be mainly south of I-40 today but also near the higher elevations of East Tennessee. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast. A broad trough remains over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the cold front that moved through the region today will linger over northern GA and northern AL. High pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley with low level northeasterly winds across the region. The higher elevations of East Tennessee will also have increased convection due to terrain forcing.
One limiting factor will be BL drying behind the trough. Although some LSA will be in place from the upper trough, very dry air will mix down behind the trough ultimately limiting convection to a degree.
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms, in association with a cold front, will continue across the Panhandle and the South Plains for the remainder of the night.
328 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
Given the placement of the boundary, those closer to the TN/AL border will have the highest PoPs through the day.
307 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Upper level heights sag a bit across the Western High Plains today which will increase southerly flow in the lower levels. The main mid level wave and better warm frontal forcing should be north of the area with a weak axis of instability in central SD, mainly west of the FSD county warning area. The stronger southerly flow will bring warmer lows with more mid and upper 60s for lows. The latest Ensemble output from the EC and GEFS suggest basically keeping chances near and east of the Buffalo Ridge which agrees with the model soundings.
A warmer day is expected on Sunday with decreasing clouds and highs in the lower to middle 80s.
H500 ridge has been compressed southward with a W-NW flow setup over the area. Much of the state is expected to see beneficial rainfall and cooler temperatures nonetheless.
355 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 This weekend will feature a return of July heat and humidity, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure remains largely stationary across the western US while a thermal ridge shifts east. A cold front will track across the CWA from west to east, leading to reduced humidity on the backside on breezy northwest winds. The far eastern CWA has a slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, but this will depend on the timing of the cold front.
Tomorrow will be the last nice day for a while, with temperatures in the low 80s. An upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central Plains through the course of the week.
Expect overall cooler temperatures across the state along with continued opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Late Sunday, the stationary boundary will begin to lift back northward becoming a warm front.
1126 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures this weekend, with highs near 90.
An area of high pressure remains situated over Florida and looks to strengthen over the next couple days. As the ridge strengthens, drier more stable air remains in control decreasing the chance for convection.
The forecast area will be sandwiched between an area of high pressure over Northern Nevada and a cyclone aloft just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide us with light breezes and quiet weather today under a canopy of high clouds. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 80s with comfortable dew points.
The western ridge/eastern trough upper level pattern that has kept the area under at least modestly cyclonic flow and milder temperatures in recent days looks to last into the early part of the week before the upper level pattern flattens and becomes somewhat more quasizonal, allowing heights over the region to build and deflecting the primary storm track to the north. Some model disagreement on the potential for convection in the hot and humid airmass/perhaps a ridge rider or two late week will necessitate some low pops, but confidence in these is lower than early week chances.
Today, pressure heights will rise a bit as the ridge gradually advances. It will be a bit warmer and drier. There will be good instability over the high country and scattered storms should develop over the mountains by early afternoon. A few storms may impact the adjacent plains through evening but the lower elevations should stay mostly dry. The upper ridge axis to the west of Colorado is excepted to push slowly eastward for the next few days.
Temperatures so far this morning have reached the low to mid 80s, and if you think it has been dry the last couple of days, you would be right. Later today, the Atlantic ridge axis will strengthen and in conjunction with drier air overhead, keep rain chances to a minimum. Afternoon highs look very similar to yesterday with values around 90 degrees along the coast and most inland spots in the low to mid 90s. Winds ESE-SE south of the Cape and SE-SSE northward 5-10kts due to Atlantic ridge axis just north of the Cape, backing slightly and increasing to 10-15kts as the sea breeze develops, then retuning to S-SE around 10 kts tonight.
Another quiet night thanks to high pressure with satellite showing mostly clear skies across the area save for a few lingering high clouds here and there. Expect the mostly clear skies to continue today with the continued presence of high pressure, along with slightly warmer highs in the 80s and modest southerly winds. Aloft we will be in weak NW flow with ridging to the west. Sunday the ridge aloft starts to make its way into the region and will push temperatures up into the lower 90s.
The high humidity will help hold temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs.
An inverted trough that moved across the region yesterday is just to our west. The big winner this morning in terms of rainfall has been the Lower Keys, where the Key West Airport so far has picked up 0. The aforementioned inverted trough is moving along the base of the subtropical ridge. Said ridge has a sharp axis that extends westward across northern Florida and the entire Gulf of Mexico. Given the orientation of the winds, any additional showers that develop within the relatively moisture rich air mass will tend to favor the western half of our CWA, including the Lower Keys. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, a sharp subtropical ridge axis lies to our north and will maintain moderate to occasional fresh breezes across the area for today.
546 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Another cooler than normal and quiet weather day is expected across central Illinois to start out the weekend.
655 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Upper level high pressure and corresponding deep anticyclonic gyre will work eastward from the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning across Lower Michigan this afternoon and tonight. Upper level ridge (588+ DAM at 500 MB) builds over Lower Michigan through this evening. 850 MB temps aoa 15 C (per regional 00z GEM) suggests highs in the low to mid 80s will be no problem today. Did not put much stock in the 00z NAM, which appears to be too moist, allowing dew pts to rise into the lower 60s and subsequently develops extensive clouds at the 850 MB level.
607 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Upper level heights sag a bit across the Western High Plains today which will increase southerly flow in the lower levels. The main mid level wave and better warm frontal forcing should be north of the area with a weak axis of instability in central SD, mainly west of the FSD county warning area. The stronger southerly flow will bring warmer lows with more mid and upper 60s for lows. The latest Ensemble output from the EC and GEFS suggest basically keeping chances near and east of the Buffalo Ridge which agrees with the model soundings.
708 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer. The high will drift off the east coast early in the upcoming week.
/issued 323 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will hold on across the BRO CWFA today, producing dry weather will well above normal temperatures. Tonight through Sunday, an inverted mid-level trough with embedded closed low pressure system will gradually move west across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into the east coast of Mexico. Isolated convection will affect the far offshore lower Texas coastal waters tonight, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting all waters of the Lower Texas Coast, and primarily Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, and Hidalgo counties, on Sunday.
Gilstad Upper ridging dominates the upper air pattern as its axis slowly shifts to the east and helps usher in higher temperatures.
An area of low pressure will bring chances for showers and storms on Sunday, a few of which may be strong to severe. High pressure was centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning with a warm front extending across South Dakota. As low pressure becomes more organized over the Dakotas tonight, a warm front will lift across the Northland and end up north of the International Border by Sunday morning. A much more humid airmass will arrive behind the warm front and a few isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop Saturday evening and night as it moves through, mainly across north-central and northeastern Minnesota. The area of low pressure across the Dakotas will move east into Minnesota and bring a cold front along with it.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 85 73 86 / 70 30 80 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 84 72 83 / 30 20 80 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 83 71 82 / 30 30 80 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 82 68 79 / 10 20 80 70 80.
611 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure brings drier weather today. With plenty of sunshine across the lowlands, afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s, ranging into the upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. During the day Sunday models depict weak troughing ridging along the southern branch of the polar jet across the midwest. This should pull the boundary that had been lingering just to our south to the north as a warm front, providing a focus for showers showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the southeastern third of the forecast area. A tropical like environment characterized by precipitable water values approaching 2 inches and freezing heights of 15kft+ will support very efficient warm rain/mixed mode precipitation generation amidst fairly conditionally unstable profiles supporting instantaneous rainfall rates in excess of 4 inches per hour.
1012 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure brings drier weather today. With plenty of sunshine across the lowlands, afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s, ranging into the upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. During the day Sunday models depict weak troughing ridging along the southern branch of the polar jet across the midwest. This should pull the boundary that had been lingering just to our south to the north as a warm front, providing a focus for showers showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the southeastern third of the forecast area. A tropical like environment characterized by precipitable water values approaching 2 inches and freezing heights of 15kft+ will support very efficient warm rain/mixed mode precipitation generation amidst fairly conditionally unstable profiles supporting instantaneous rainfall rates in excess of 4 inches per hour.
This as a thermal ridge advances over the area ahead of a weak trough and stronger trailing cold front. This advecting into the area on a southern wind ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough. The H5 wave here is more potent, and with stronger surface convergence (lift) along the cold front, confidence is higher that storms will indeed fire / move in from Montana and Saskatchewan. Cooler Sunday behind the front, and on the breezier northwest wind side.
942 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will extend across the region today. The high will move off to the east tonight into Sunday as a warm front lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley.
853 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer. The high will drift off the east coast early in the upcoming week.
High pressure was centered across the area this morning with clear skies. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today than yesterday as weak llvl advection brought warmer temps into the area. We will see a slight increase in southwesterly flow as high pressure pushes east and a wave moves in from the northwest.
513 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer. The high will drift off the east coast early in the upcoming week.
657 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will extend across the region today. The high will move off to the east tonight into Sunday as a warm front lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley.