Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A 500 MB RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AS MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
/ISSUED 1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION-> UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM CROSSVILLE UP TO PADUCAH WITH UPPER LOW EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO LIFT EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELT OF WESTERLIES NORTH OF MY CWA WITH SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN STILL ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT WON'T REQUIRE MUCH HEATING TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTN.
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALONG THE FRONT OVER MD. AND WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE. THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.
430 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WAS INDICATIVE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HAZY SKIES CONTINUING.
930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO BETTER POPS. 13 LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1159 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE HIGH-RES WRF ARW SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT HAS RESOLVED THE TROUGH IN A DECENT FASHION. ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT'S CURRENTLY IN PLAY IS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR PRESENT MIGHT INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST EARLY ON TODAY. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND I'VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO 50 WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 15 TO 16Z AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AT LEAST BVO TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 70 90 72 / 20 20 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 69 87 70 / 20 20 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 69 87 70 / 20 20 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 63 85 67 / 50 20 30 30.
636 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NEAR COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KAMA AROUND 22Z TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. SOME DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODELS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. CREATING MORE OF A GRADIENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
952 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA/SW MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK TO THE SSW. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BISECT IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS DEPICT SUPPRESSED RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A BROAD CLOSED LOW SITS OFF THE CALI COAST MOVING AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
900 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG MADE ITS WAY INTO ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES AND MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO STABLE AND DRIER THAN USUAL AIR THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
902 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUNG ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP GRADIENT WINDS LIGHT TODAY.
724 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAA AND BETTER GRADIENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. MOISTURE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUT SOME CONCERN REGARDING ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN NORTH BYPASS OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. 25-30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WARRANT SPC'S TUESDAY AFTN MARGINAL RISK (ISO WIND THREAT AT BEST).
744 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL SLOWLY SPIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND END UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY WITH COOL AIR OVER US FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AWAY FROM DOWNSLOPE.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO/NEW MEXICO PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
348 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
THINGS ARE ON TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE COAST THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH MOVING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. ON SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE ROTATE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT.
212 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight.
349 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015 Upper low continues to spin over the Rockies this afternoon with an upper level jet rounding the base of the upper low and moving over New Mexico. Models suggest additional development this evening across western and central Kansas moving northeast into north central Kansas with the increase and veering of the low level jet overnight. Expect a break for a few hours in the afternoon, then chances increase again with storms developing again in the afternoon in western and central Kansas as upward vertical motion increases with the advance of the upper trough into the High Plains.
305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
621 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/ BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST IS BEING FORCED IN THE LOW- LEVELS ALONG A WARM FRONT.
322 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT BANDS OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTH OUT OF THE UPPER LOW AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CO TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW STAYING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA. BUT COULD SEE A MIX OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 437 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The main concern today is the threat for severe thunderstorms across a large part of West Central Texas as a large potent upper low near the Four Corners begins to move east today and tonight. The dryline will interact with moisture already in place across the region as dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, moderate 0-6km shear, steep lapse rates, MU CAPE Values 1500-2500 J/KG, a weak capping inversion, an approaching short wave from far West Texas, and an exit region of the subtropical jet flowing across the NW Hill Country.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL START LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A DRY AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THIS CWA TODAY WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S SHOULD KEEP PCPN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT BEST.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY TOWARD LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTINCT VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT). WITH THE WARMER TEMPS. WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HOW WARM WE GET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS A CHALLENGE. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SAT AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE SOME WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
251 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT OVERALL QPF FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0. PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION KEEPING MILD WEATHER IN PLACE. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS LATER THIS MORNING A NICE MILD SPRING DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL GIVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND IL YET ON SATURDAY TO BRING ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY, WITH MILDEST READINGS NEAR THE IN BORDER WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
West/southwest flow aloft will persist over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of dry air to the region. Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the Permian basin tonight. It looks like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.
257 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS IN CONTROL. WE'VE HAD MORE INSOLATION TODAY THAT YESTERDAY, DESPITE THE ROBUST CU FIELD, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED OUT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S, WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, THANKS TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION/HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOWS, THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL (SOME SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FASTER THAN OTHERS).
317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN IR. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY SLOTTED.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.
252 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GARRETT/TUCKER COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING UP IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO.
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. THE TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES TOMORROW. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS (MOST AREAS NEAR FREEZING).
354 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE ONCE FOUR CORNERS CENTERED UPPER LOW HAS PLACED EASTERN TEXAS UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR A RETURN OF EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHEN CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN TANDEM PRECEDENT RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE. THE HIGHEST AT-RISK COUNTIES WILL BE OUR COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING FORT BEND. AND WEAK ROTATION UP THROUGH THE LOWER FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
119 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAAYS.
602 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THE LACK OF MOISTURE, AND THE REALLY DRY PROFILES, IT MAY JUST END UP BEING AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE RIDGETOPS AND THAT'S IT.
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOWER 70S. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RH FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TODAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
IT APPEARS THAT THE EFFECTS OF AN EJECTING SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER LOW MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through the entire weekend.
156 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THIS WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF AND THE INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS ONTARIO.
229 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BIG SPRING TO PANDALE AND THEN BACK TO NEAR THE BIG BEND. WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE STORMS MAY FORM INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS ONE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH AND ANOTHER ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE SOUTH.
338 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 MODELS STILL AGREE WELL BUT WERE SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S). UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN. APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFT. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
325 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.