Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The region is currently under the influence of an upper high situated over the Mid MS Valley and a low level anticyclone centered in southern IL. The aforementioned slowly retreating low level anticyclone will result produce south- southwest low level flow and warmer temperatures today with highs generally in the 85-90 degree range. /Canadian border and our area will largely be a weak col region aloft, with south- southwest low level flow courtesy of the anticyclone centered in the TN Valley region. Seasonably warm temperatures will be the main story and they should be a few degrees warmer than today and humidity will also begin slowly inching upward as well.
/issued 302 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ North to northwest flow aloft continues today as a broad upper high pressure system remains over the Four Corners region. Convection will likely initiate over the higher terrain of eastern NM and then track southeastward into the FA during the latter part of the evening. Northerly flow aloft will remain in place across the region on Monday as upper level ridging extends across the Central Plains.
and Monday Southwest winds will bring increasing moisture into the area today through Monday as a cold front slowly approaches from the Northern Plains states. There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight ahead of the cold front that will be moving into northwest Wisconsin.
The surface map at 05Z shows a high pressure cell centered over southeast MO. The ridge at 5h will remain in place over middle TN into Monday, but will be weakening.
Other than that, temperatures on Monday will rise back into the 80s and 90s across western Montana and near 100 in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho.
Other zones will only climb into the lower 90s for a few hours today and probably will not warrant any heat products/headlines. Monday, the otherwise zonal flow aloft become slightly influenced more from the northern stream broad low pressure trough from the Canadian prairie.
1002 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 A trough is currently working its way southeast across the area. A warm front will move east across the area this afternoon through tonight as the associated low tracks east across James Bay.
Tonight another wave of positive vorticity advection with the same upper level trough will swing through Wisconsin late tonight into Monday morning. Guidance is a bit aggressive with these dewpoints though getting them into the low to mid 70s across central WI.
/Issued 1033 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ High pressure will continue across the forecast area today. High pressure has built in across the region behind the stalled frontal boundary laying across south GA this morning. This ridge of high pressure will keep things dry across north and central GA today but it is expected to begin weakening tonight. The stalled frontal boundary will begin to make its way back north as a warm front starting Monday which will increase moisture across central portions of the state.
With enhanced low-level moisture, lows to the S of I-20 will be near normal in the low 70s while cooler to the N in the mid 60s. As the boundary lifts back N as a warm front Monday, sfc ridging, dry air & subsidence will continue to limit coverage of convection for areas generally NW of the Natchez Trace corridor. With some subtle WAA, heat & humidity will increase, with highs near normal in the low 90s & heat indices peaking into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
The high/ridging will drift east during the remainder of the period, becoming amorphous and absorbed into broader features. The time period begins with upper level ridging over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with lower heights aloft across the Southeast. Ridging over our area will weaken through the week as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest and Elsa progresses north toward the Gulf.
Temperatures this even- ing around fireworks times will be in the lower 80s/upper 70s with generally light/variable winds.
1113 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Another beautiful morning is occurring across the Mid-South as high pressure remains centered over the Mid-South. Sunrise temperatures across portions of west Tennessee will be in the upper 50s on this Independence Day with most of the area in the low 60s.
325 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure with warmer and drier air starts building in today and continues into Monday.
These waves will eventually sag a cold front south into the area. Best chance for pops will be later in the period on Monday across the far north, near the cold front. Discussion: Tonight, quiet weather is expected with low temperatures being somewhat warmer as SW winds have brought in more moisture. This vortmax does pull the 'cold front' through the northern CWA and lays it out in the highway 20 corridor. Monday afternoon, this front and heating may lead to some showers and storms, especially along the highway 20 corridor.
1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The region is currently under the influence of an upper high situated over the Mid MS Valley and a low level anticyclone centered in southern IL. The aforementioned slowly retreating low level anticyclone will result produce south- southwest low level flow and warmer temperatures today with highs generally in the 85-90 degree range. /Canadian border and our area will largely be a weak col region aloft, with south- southwest low level flow courtesy of the anticyclone centered in the TN Valley region. Seasonably warm temperatures will be the main story and they should be a few degrees warmer than today and humidity will also begin slowly inching upward as well.
An upper level trough currently over the Southeast remains so through the Near Term. Increased cloud cover over the forecast area will combine with increased convection to bring a cooler than seasonal norm day to the forecast area. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected along and east of the Alabama River, with mid to upper 80s west.
241 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
131 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure is centered over southeast Missouri this afternoon and, although temperatures are slightly warmer than yesterday's, we're having a difficult time reaching today's forecasted highs.
Winds have been a little breezier out of the south today where the pressure gradient has increased between the ridge to the east and boundary to the west. H5 maps show a weak area of low pressure over western and central KS this afternoon. Smoke dispersal, however, could become poor after sunset as winds decrease and a temperature inversion sets up in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Not a lot changes for tomorrow, except that temperatures could be a few degrees warmer than today, especially in north-central KS.
130 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure with warmer and drier air starts building in today and continues into Monday.
The 12z sounding continued to sample extremely dry air above 975 mb, with pronounced ridging visible on water vapor imagery. However, 500 mb heights did lower from 593 to 591 dam over the six hour period from 06z to 12z at KEY, indicating the ridge is beginning to lose its grip on the sensible forecast for the Keys.
With sufficient insolation, highs will warm near normal into the low 90s with heat indices climbing into low-mid 90s, especially to the S. /JNE/ Come Monday, the region will be sandwiched between upper ridging to the west and a departing trough to the east.
High pressure strengthens for the coming week, resulting in lower storm chances, light winds, and hotter temperatures.
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure at the surface will continue through the period, helping to keep the weather quiet, albeit hot. The higher dew points that have settled into the area today will continue to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the period, leading to muggy conditions. Warm air advection will prompt a hot start to the week with temperatures expected to get up to the low 90s tomorrow while lows tonight and tomorrow night will only drop to the upper 60s to near 70.
An upper level ridge will be centered over the four-corners region today through tomorrow. A short wave was diving southward on the east side of the upper ridge. A weak speed max at 250mb was also over Colorado following this short wave trough.
Building high pressure aloft this week will bring some warming to inland areas.
A weak cold front is just about clear of the CWA, with mainly just Hamlin, Deuel, and portions of Grant/Clark counties left for it to clear.
147 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 A trough is currently working its way southeast across the area. A warm front will move east across the area this afternoon through tonight as the associated low tracks east across James Bay.
213 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Monday keeping dry weather in place and skies mostly clear.
/issued 1113 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ Another beautiful morning is occurring across the Mid-South as high pressure remains centered over the Mid-South. Sunrise temperatures across portions of west Tennessee will be in the upper 50s on this Independence Day with most of the area in the low 60s.
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure with warmer and drier air starts building in today and continues into Monday.
A sprawling high pressure system stretches from the center of the country to the east coast. Temperatures are near or just slightly below normal for this time of year, and the lower than normal dewpoints will help contribute to a beautiful evening for fireworks and celebrations. The high pressure center will push eastward overnight and should begin pushing offshore on Monday.
Right now, have the highest pops aligned with the latest thinking that storms will develop along the Highway 83 corridor this afternoon. The low level hodograph and thermo profile is not favorable for tornadoes.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels remain low.
The ridge axis that has been to our south, allowing this pattern to perpetuate, is beginning to erode and retreat as Elsa rides around the periphery of the subtropical ridge axis.
Attention then turns toward Monday/Monday night ahead of more robust wave that can now be seen moving up backside of 500hpa ridge through wrn NV into SW ID.
The upper level trough that sparked showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening has moved off into the Upper Great Lakes region and a broad low amplitude ridge axis is currently trying to nudge into western North Dakota. This ridge will keep your Independence Day mostly sunny, hot, and dry. While temperatures will not be as hot as they were yesterday, we should still see highs in the mid to upper 80s north and the low to mid 90s south with a few upper 90s readings mixed in. These to waves will continue to move towards the region, flattening the ridge. Monday will once still be warm to hot with highs in lower 80s north to the lower 90s south.
For tonight, look for temperatures to cool into the low 60s.
1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The state remains caught between the H5 ridge centered on the Four Corners, and the main storm track along and just north of the Canadian border. With the ridge having lesser of an impact of capping, thunderstorm activity will again be able to bubble up along the higher elevations of northwest WY during peak heating, then drift east through the evening. The H5 ridge will be nudging slightly to the east on Monday, but this will open the door for an increase in Pacific moisture across the state. Along with this will be a developing trough, which will sweep across WY during the afternoon. Increased cloud coverage will help keep temperatures lower Monday, with highs limited to the low to mid 80s.
136 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure is currently centered just southwest of the Four Corners. The moisture in place has been recycled over the past few weeks, but it's still sufficient for afternoon convection over the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall is certainly possible especially in the higher elevations, but can not be ruled out in the lower valleys. Gusty outflow winds are possible as well given the warmer temperatures.
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure expected to be centered across the mountains tonight into Monday, while warmer and more humid air returns to the Mid Atlantic region. Elsa interacts with an approaching cold front. Still some of the high res convective allowing models are hinting at development later this afternoon mainly across the mountains. So keeping just isolated coverage into early evening in the western ridges. Since RH across the low levels increases, should see scattering of cu again Monday afternoon with isolated showers/storms mainly over the higher elevations. Most will be rain-free and warmer/more humid with highs ranging from the lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge to 80s west. Begin to see isolated afternoon Weak ridging overhead will gradually become more zonal as the week progresses.
156 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 The center of southwestward tilted ridge of high pressure will begin its slow trek eastward from the WFO PAH forecast area, with very weak warm advection in developing south/southwesterly flow aloft across the area.
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
In the case that storms do develop, there is a chance that some could be on the strong side, but the higher threat for this will be to our southwest where higher instability is coincident with around 30kts of effective shear.
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 A cold front will stall south of the area through Monday.
115 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Monday keeping dry weather in place and skies mostly clear.
307 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing again this afternoon as the relatively moist west flow continues and a ridge builds to the south.
Isolated convection will wane in the ridges as peak heating ceases, and variable wind shuts off upslope capability. High pressure will become dominant, with seasonable warmth overnight.
Otherwise, another night of cooler than normal temperatures is expected as morning lows range from the mid 60s north to near 70 in the south. With enhanced low- level moisture, lows to the S of I-20 will be near normal in the low 70s while cooler to the N in the mid 60s. As the boundary lifts back N as a warm front Monday, sfc ridging, dry air & subsidence will continue to limit coverage of convection for areas generally NW of the Natchez Trace corridor. With some subtle WAA, heat & humidity will increase, with highs near normal in the low 90s & heat indices peaking into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
High pressure at the surface will continue through the period, helping to keep the weather quiet, albeit hot. The higher dew points that have settled into the area today will continue to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the period, leading to muggy conditions. Warm air advection will prompt a hot start to the week with temperatures expected to get up to the low 90s tomorrow while lows tonight and tomorrow night will only drop to the upper 60s to near 70.
705 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
727 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure expected to be centered across the mountains tonight into Monday, while warmer and more humid air returns to the Mid Atlantic region. Elsa interacts with an approaching cold front. Still some of the high res convective allowing models are hinting at development later this afternoon mainly across the mountains. So keeping just isolated coverage into early evening in the western ridges. Since RH across the low levels increases, should see scattering of cu again Monday afternoon with isolated showers/storms mainly over the higher elevations. Most will be rain-free and warmer/more humid with highs ranging from the lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge to 80s west. Begin to see isolated afternoon Weak ridging overhead will gradually become more zonal as the week progresses.
High pressure is centered over southeast Missouri this afternoon and, although temperatures are slightly warmer than yesterday's, we're having a difficult time reaching today's forecasted highs.
506 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure has built in with a few isolated shower possible into the early evening in Poconos and the Catskills.
Latest ensembles were favoring this drying trend as high pressure aloft builds farther northward over the Great Basin region. The position of the upper high will result in a less favorable flow pattern for daily showers and thunderstorms as upstream moisture will be lacking.
634 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure has built in with a few isolated shower possible into the early evening in Poconos and the Catskills.
The center of southwestward tilted ridge of high pressure will begin its slow trek eastward from the WFO PAH forecast area, with very weak warm advection in developing south/southwesterly flow aloft across the area.
This evening through Monday night Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing again this afternoon, as the relatively moist west flow continues and a ridge builds to the south.
As for temperatures, highs in the northern Sacramento Valley look to remain in the triple digits, with areas further south seeing a bit cooler temperatures due to the continued onshore flow.
910 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure has built in with clear skies and cooler temperatures tonight.
These storms have aided by a short wave trough moving southeast into western Oklahoma. These storms will be moving into an environment of increasing instability and shear as interact with a short wave trough moving through western Kansas. There are a couple of minor short wave troughs moving through the flow that may also tough off a few showers and storms.
Increasing low-level moisture on Monday with isolated diurnal convection across the higher elevations of the mountains and plateau. Added slight chance PoPs for the higher elevations of the mountains and plateau during the afternoon hours. A mitigating factor is the amount of dry air and subsidence beneath the upper ridge which will greatly limit convective potential. As the ridge axis shifts eastward on Monday, temperatures will continue to rise warmer and above normal. After max temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s for most areas with heat index values in the mid 90s near Chattanooga in the afternoon.
It may take a while to get rid of the last cell on radar tonight given the high dew points, light flow and persistent near term model signals south, and then guidance is hitting fog formation heavily despite recent trends and patchy cloud again tonight. Heat indices reach the mid to uppr 90s Monday afternoon, even with the lower MAV used for dew points then.
532 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 High pressure is currently centered just southwest of the Four Corners. The moisture in place has been recycled over the past few weeks, but it's still sufficient for afternoon convection over the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall is certainly possible especially in the higher elevations, but can not be ruled out in the lower valleys. Gusty outflow winds are possible as well given the warmer temperatures.
With enhanced low- level moisture, lows to the S of I-20 will be near normal in the low 70s while cooler to the N in the mid 60s. As the boundary lifts back N as a warm front Monday, sfc ridging, dry air & subsidence will continue to limit coverage of convection for areas generally NW of the Natchez Trace corridor. With some subtle WAA, heat & humidity will increase, with highs near normal in the low 90s & heat indices peaking into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
914 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 02z Sfc Analysis this evening continues to show weak surface ridging noted from the Tenn Valley south and west through N TX attm. Winds across much of the Lower Miss Valley have gone calm while we are still seeing light and variable winds elsewhere. A quick check of 02z temps shows that ambient temps are within 2 degrees of fcst temps with most being a little cooler than forecast attm.
Expect another cool night overnight with lows mainly in the lower 60s. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels remain low.
The trigger for potential severe weather will be the front and associated digging upper level trough that is now over the Dakotas.
High pressure will result in light and variable winds, with clear sky allowing for radiational cooling, and temperature to fall to near seasonal averages tonight.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature today but surface flow will be turning more southeast with a corresponding and noticeable increase in heat and humidity. The high will be weakening/shifting to the east on Tuesday with the majority of the area seeing southeast surface flow and a return to seasonal temperature and humidity levels.
High pressure will settle back in across the high plains with a weak gradient extending through the CWA giving way to light southeasterly winds less than 10-15 mph. Skies will improve in wake of the mid level trough with some lingering mid level clouds expected through the day Monday. Otherwise, Monday morning low temperatures will be slightly cooler due to the evaporative cooled atmosphere down into the mid 60s for most but seeing near 70 into south central Kansas.
319 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will weaken today and Tuesday.
The hot and humid weather returns for Tuesday, albeit a bit hotter with high temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s.
Expecting a quite night with similar or slightly warmer temperatures than we are currently observing.
In the case that storms do develop, there is a chance that some could be on the strong side, but the higher threat for this will be to our southwest where higher instability is coincident with around 30kts of effective shear. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive as a cold front moves through the area on Tuesday.
A mid level trough will extend southwest over the area with high pressure over the Northwest Gulf.
Currently this morning, light winds and clear skies are present across the area, on the east side of a large upper ridge. Slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures and mostly clear skies should keep temperatures today and tomorrow a few degrees warmer than the past couple days.
The center of southwestward tilted ridge of high pressure will begin its slow trek eastward from the WFO PAH forecast area, with very weak warm advection in developing south/southwesterly flow aloft across the area. With little in the way of cloud cover and increasing warm air advection, temperatures will once again move back into the lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday.
Higher humidity will return on Tuesday as the surface anticyclone slides east and weakens, allowing for more of a southerly flow. Highs Tuesday will run slightly above average and will be one of the warmer days of this forecast.
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. The remainder of the holiday weekend will close out as it started, dry, but a bit warmer.
High pressure at the surface will continue through the period, helping to keep the weather quiet, albeit hot. The higher dew points that have settled into the area today will continue to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the period, leading to muggy conditions. Warm air advection will prompt a hot start to the week with temperatures expected to get up to the low 90s tomorrow while lows tonight and tomorrow night will only drop to the upper 60s to near 70. On Tuesday morning, high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast continues to stretch back towards central Indiana, while a front hangs up across Michigan and Wisconsin slowly sinking southward.
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A broad upper high pressure system remains parked over the Four Corners region today keeping the FA in northerly flow aloft. In addition, a slight perturbation in the upper level high will rotate southward around the high and over the region assisting in kicking off convection across the high terrain of NM.