Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH.
106 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
318 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 AT H5 STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WITH RIDGE INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH PHASED WITH CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RIDGE FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AS 850HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS SIMILAR TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE SOUTH BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE WARMER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MAX TEMPS. WHICH GENERALLY UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE LOWER/MID 70S.
Strong deep layer ridging will persist over and just east of the local region.
MODELS ALL SHOW THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT TRIES TO GET PICKED UP BY A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE LOW CAN BE PULLED AS FAR NORTH AS ALL MODELS SHOW AS IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE WINDOW FOR PULLING THE LOW NORTHWARD IS FAIRLY SMALL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND NSSL-WRF BRING A BAND INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT START TO DISSIPATE IT BEFORE IT REACHES I-27.
COLD FRONT EDGING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. OTRWS GENERAL UPR RIDGING/UNSEASONABLY WARM THERMAL RIDGE HOLDS ACRS THE ERN US IN BROAD SWRLY FLW ALOFT AND CONTD WELL ABV NORMAL TEMP DEPARTURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. BEYOND THAT BIG BLOCKING RIDGE XPCD TO BLOWUP OVR GREENLAND AND ALLOW POLAR VORTEX TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO HUDSON BAY W/A RTN OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT HAVE OPTED TO INTRO A TEMPO AT BOTH SITES TO HANDLE THINGS AND EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SISSETON HILLS.
The upper low, which has created conditions favorable for rain over the last several days, will continue to slowly move toward the east and northeast during the next 24 hours. Models bring the center of the upper low over deep South Texas by sunrise tomorrow morning. For tomorrow and if the center of the upper low does not deviate from the models forecast track, showers and isolated thunderstorms will dominate much of West Central Texas.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT WARM AND DRY CONDS THOROUGH THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL FORCE INCREASING SSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL BE LITTERED WITH CIRRUS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHWARD.
FRONT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS AS RAIN AREA WILL BE COOLER.
MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KLBX WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POWERFUL H5 LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NUEVO LEON MX. AN EMBEDDED S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS TAMAULIPAS MX MAY HELP INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. H/5 TO H25 LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER SWELL ENERGY MAY AID IN PUSHING WATER TO THE DUNES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.
However, this will do very little to change the present air mass across the high plains with H85 temperatures still ranging from around 10C across central Kansas to near 12C closer to the Colorado border. Expect lows back down into the 30s(F) and the lower 40s(F) Thursday night with still very little change to the general air mass.
256 PM MST THU MAR 10 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE RIDGE. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GUSTS TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS FULLY DEVELOPED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE US SOUTHEAST COAST TO BERMUDA SUPPRESSES MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING. THIS SHOULD KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LEVY COUNTY COAST TO THE MID 80S OVER INLAND AREAS.
LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
357 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER LOWS TO THE AREA WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA POSSIBLY SEEING A SMALL RISE BEFORE SUNRISE. ONE AREA TO WATCH LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE A LITTLE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHWARD.
The heavy precipitation corridor will pivot toward a more N-S orientation as the next trough arrives Friday. This trough will likely be of the splitting variety, with most of its energy heading toward Central and Southern California.
THIS LOW STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING SO EXPECT FOGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN. HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WILL LEAD TO NO CHANCES OF POPS. THE GEM AND GFS ARE COOLER WITH TEMPS TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR PUMPING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO ARKANSAS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING AWAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BECOME COMPLETELY CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE HIGH PWAT PLUME DOES CUTOFF THOUGH.
AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO PROCEEDS TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
1124 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 Damp, drizzly conditions have developed over the area during the past several hours with temperatures in the low/mid 50s. Split flow aloft has resulted in a cut off low centered over Mexico, with a weak, positively trough slowly edging east across the northern tier of states. Eventually, by later this afternoon, the trough over the northern tier of states will press far enough east to shunt drier air into the area and shift light rain to the southeast. The latest round of model output continues to lift the upper low over Mexico northward with time. Have maintained a slight chance mention of thunder as the upper low moves over the area this weekend.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AND SUNNY FOR FRIDAY AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. INTERESTING TO NOTE CLOUDS HANGING ON SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER COOLER AREAS SUCH AS LEECH LAKE AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 210 CORRIDOR IN CROW WING AND AITKIN COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED A FRESH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DRIFTS EAST EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
258 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY.
High pressure ridge axis building overhead, delivering a delightful day to SW KS. High pressure ridge axis, with very dry air and few clouds, will remain firmly planted over Kansas.
AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND MOST OF TODAY IN WESTERN WI.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE LOW STRATUS DECK DISSIPATES THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A FEW STRAY HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL BC WITH TROUGH INTO EASTERN WY. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UPPER RIDGE/THERMAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP MIXING FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN SD AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS N OUT OF MEXICO INTO TX. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NWD THIS WEEKEND.
340 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 A cutoff low remained positioned over Northern Mexico this afternoon with upper level southerly flow on the lee side of the low continuing to spread broken to overcast cloud cover across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The greater precip chances tonight should remain mainly south of Interstate 40 and lift northward across the CWA with the movement of the low Friday.
405 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS ANOMALOUS LOW/TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER EAST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM THE SUBTROPICS. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL END TOMORROW AS WE SEE INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
138 PM PST THU MAR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TODAY.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
COMBINE THIS WITH A COPIOUS RAIN ON SNOW EVENT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS BUT IS ONLY MINIMALLY AFFECTING IA WEATHER. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME A GYRE TRAPPED BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS.
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS MT. DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SRN AND WRN NEB.
239 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CU OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER AL FROM APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT IT IS WEAKENING FAST. THIS WEAKENING RIDGE IS FINALLY ALLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS CREATED FLOODING ACROSS LA/TX TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE STILL TRIES TO KEEP A HOLD OVER GA FRI WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY INDICES LOW SO ONLY GOING WITH GENERAL THUNDERS FOR NOW.
THEREFORE THE FACTORS PLAYING INTO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUDS EXIT TO THE EAST. WHICH ARE SOME OF THE LOWER VALUES FOR MARCH. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH FRIDAY LOOKING MUCH WARMER.
Have therefore carried low chance PoPs across the SE KILX CWA through mid-evening, then have gone dry across the board for the remainder of the night as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Low temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper 30s, but will remain in the lower to middle 40s south of I-70 where clouds will linger the longest. Active pattern this period as several upper waves are forecast to affect the region with frequent chances for rain, except for Friday as high pressure will bring one dry day to central Illinois.
WITH 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE ROCKIES FLATTENS AHEAD OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 400 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016/ STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE THE SE U. COAST GIVES WAY SLIGHTLY AS A STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER THE MID U.
CIGS COULD EVEN LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE BY 03-05Z THIS EVENING WITH THE MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING.
309 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 Upper low was moving east across central Mexico with weak upper trough crossing the Northern Plains. The upper low swings north into southern Texas into Friday and expect cloud cover to slowly increase through then. Highs could be a touch cooler in more cloud but should be very similar to today. Model trends from the meandering upper low over Texas show a slower progression northward and therefore have backed off pops in the early evening, especially north of Interstate 70.
While dry weather is expected tonight and most of Friday, the upper low that is allowing rich and deep moisture to stream into parts of the Southeast causing massive flooding, will slowly drift northward. As the low lifts towards our area, we should benefit from still much needed rainfall.
WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE SLOWLY RISING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITTING OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT CYCLONICALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A LEE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND AS IT MOVES OUT. THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS A NARROW FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO A WELL DEFINED CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. A DEEP MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL UNUSUALLY FULL LATITUDINAL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IS ALIGNED DOWNSTREAM OF THAT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1123 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD GENERATED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
353 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
Where that gradient is established winds out of the north/northwest are a bit strong, but otherwise to the north, across our forecast area and toward the center part of the ridge winds are generally pretty light. Mid level troughing associated with the large trough over far southern Texas and Mexico is allowing for some moisture transport northward over the dry air mass.
The best chance of rain (likely) will be in the extreme eastern Permian Basin along and east of a Snyder to Garden City to Sanderson line closest to the track of the northward moving upper low.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
1230 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
820 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2015 NEW MARINE DISCUSSION LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO EXPANDS WEST. A TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT WED MAINTAINING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN U.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER TROUGH AND DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY. THE TROUGH PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE POURING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH MIDDLE OF MONTANA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR WARM WEATHER.
AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND MIGRATES INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR QUICK CHANGES AS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST REMAINS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND COLD H5 POCKET OF -12C. THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START A WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAT WILL BRING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS INVOF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CAP SEAS AT 2FT THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH GETS BEATEN BACK SLIGHTLY AS TROUGHING GRADUALLY ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG MID LVL RIDGING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ERN ROCKIES THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL RESULT THAT WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER S FL AND THE FL STRAITS. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THRU MIDWEEK.
OTHER MODELS SEEM TO HOLD ONTO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS AND THIS MATCHES INHERITED FORECAST.
500MB RIDGE OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE IF ANY TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WITH A DEEP(!) UPPER-DECK TROF DIGGING FROM QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH WOULD SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE & E OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD. BUT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NEAR A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE THE SLOW WWD RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
1009 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
/ISSUED 346 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
938 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE DAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN AS WELL AFTER 9Z WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND EXTRA SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RAIN TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT HANGS UP AGAINST THE MTNS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND MINOR DISTURBANCES PASSING ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SET OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GREAT PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SERVING TO CAP MOST CONVECTION. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND COMBINE WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
here, have the highest confidence for thunderstorm development as this area is in closer proximity a sfc front. for tomorrow, highs should be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s, with a gradient from the west to the east. upslope flow does strengthen tomorrow, so have the highest pops across far southwest/west kansas near the colorado border.
1028 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT WEST MAINTAINING NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER TAF SITES MONDAY.
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT SITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHILE UPPER FORCING IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL IN THE EXTENDED THANKS TO A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD.