Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ Upper level high over the Colorado/New Mexico state line should help keep the Panhandles in a northeast flow aloft through tonight which should keep the thunderstorm activity near the mountains, so will continue to go with a dry forecast through tonight. The center of the upper level ridge will slowly slide to the southwest through the middle part of this week. As the ridge slides southwest it will allow upper level winds to come more out of the northwest or west which will tend to pull any mountain convection this way.
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Currently watching a weakening mid-level trough and complex of storms move east through north central WI. Thunderstorm chances increase going through Tuesday night as another mid-level trough pushes in from the Plains.
As before, the most severe storms will be isolated and look to occur north and west of Yellowstone County as temperatures aloft are a bit cooler in central Montana. As an upper trough moves off of the coast and through the Pacific Northwest, an upper jet will help provide synoptic forcing. A cold front also looks to move through the area this evening, helping to provide lift for storms and bring temperatures out of the 90's. As that trough pass over the Northwest and the front goes through, they will help to decrease heights over SE Montana, and a combination of that and the cold front will bring highs tomorrow to the mid 80s, and possibly only reaching the upper 70s on Tuesday.
Evening Update: Just some slight cooling over most locations on Sun and this minor cooling trend will continue into early this week as a Pac trof moves inland. Not certain if the marine layer will deepen ahead of the trof, as it is well mixed out along the coast, and the BUFKIT moisture profile for KOAK limits the marine layer to around 1000 to <1500 ft. However, the onshore flow will maintain a Delta Breeze moderating temps to near normal in the Delta influenced areas, while the trof (and normal 5H heights) moderates temps over the higher terrain. JHM A trough of low pressure will deepen over the west coast through Tuesday while high pressure in the desert southwest pushes eastward. The marine layer is around 1000 feet and will become deeper over the next couple of days as the trough deepens.
Subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature with subsidence aloft and high level clouds via the remnants of Barry. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than the past few days and expecting mid 90s across a majority of the area.
1131 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the region but will be forced south by Monday due to an approaching trough currently off the west coast. Lingering moisture in the drier airmass will continue showers Monday afternoon in the higher terrain. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian models are in good agreement bringing the trough axis on shore Tuesday.
Upper level ridge over the 4 corners will slowly shift east this week. Dewpoints will creep up a bit back into the low 60s and we could see some areas that need Heat Advisories.
The low associated with Barry will continue to slowly track north into the area tonight and will then slowly track to the northeast Monday into Tuesday. With clouds and rain across the area, cooler conditions will occur Monday.
On Monday, there will still be enough moisture to warrant isolated storms across much of the high country, and a majority of the high resolution model guidance supports this. With subtropical high pressure centered over Arizona/New Mexico Monday and Tuesday and the drier air moving in, lower elevation weather impacts will transition to heat. The lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon will see excessive heat as well, but may not need a warning until Tuesday. The best chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday will be limited to the higher terrain in Navajo and Apache counties.
332 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low centered over Arkansas. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer across the area today with highs generally ranging from the mid 90s to the triple digits. Highs on Tuesday may be a degree or two warmer than today and there is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.
This is on the warmer, more moist, side of the forecast envelope. This is likely the result of strong winds aloft across the nrn Plains dictating low pressure to the lee of the Colorado Rockies and outflow from storm activity across the nrn Plains. This will pool moisture across Nebraska but at the same time, h700mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 16C or warmer ending rain chances. If deep mixing occurs then the warm air aloft would support highs in the low 100s as indicated by the ECM model. The temperature forecast is much cooler with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s and heat advisory conditions do not appear imminent; dew points are expected to remain in the 60s.
115 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. High pressure aloft will continue to sit over the Southeast U. There will be a slight chance of diurnal convection due to the subsiding air underneath high pressure.
1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge firmly in place across the Midwest today, although there is a weak ripple moving off the northern Rockies, which could help trigger isolated thunderstorms after midnight in northeast NE. New temp guidance coming in for Monday is slightly cooler, so have adjusted temps down a couple degrees.
An upper level ridge still over the southwestern CONUS today will place the region in northwest flow aloft and best chances for late evening convection tonight. Similar to the past several evenings, convection will likely develop on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and drift to the southeast perhaps getting a cold pool boost as well. This upper high will expand east on Tuesday as Barry pulls off to the northeast.
925 hPa temperatures are near or even a degree or two warmer than yesterday, resulting in afternoon highs from the lower 90s across southwest MN/northwest IA to the mid to upper 90s west of I-29. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, many areas will see afternoon heat indices peak in the 100 to 105 degree range. Storms should first develop across the higher terrain of WY/western SD and then slowly move eastward through the night. Tuesday does look a bit cooler with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Tue night, associated upper low opens and its then upper trough axis will move across the mid- state Wed into early Thu. Early in the day, with ML/UL trough approaching, both shear and instability ramp up a good bit, and moisture remains very deep. Upper trough is east of us on Thu, with ridging building in behind.
Showers and thunderstorms developing across the high plains this afternoon are expected to fizzle well before reaching the local area this evening.
330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - A round of warm frontal thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening.
415 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The morning surface analysis shows high pressure across the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. Overall a warm night is on tap with overnight lows in the lower 70s in most cases.
But along the coast, dewpoints/humidities will remain higher and should produce the highest heat indices around 105 degrees.
256 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019 08z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trough to another low over northeast SD and trough into southeast WY. Both are assisting elevated convection with best activity over southeast MT per 850-700mb theta-e ridge. MLCIN erodes quickest over the higher terrain of the Black Hills spreading to the surface boundary by 00z each day.
Shear axis overhead gradually fills as the Subtropical Ridges over the southeastern and southwestern states begin to merge. As the Subtropical Ridges gain more influence on Tuesday, warm mid level temperatures serve to cap the airmass while moisture levels decrease a little.
311 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Water vapor imagery currently shows remnants of Barry spinning over central AR with upper ridging stretching from the southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Still expecting 850mb temps to start increasing for Tue as upper ridging expands across the Southern Plains with temps expected to continuing warming into Wed. This will keep any cooler air well north of the area through Fri. However, ECMWF doesn't show this at all and actually keeps weak upper ridging over the northern Plains.
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over central MT into SASK.
temperatures are holding in the lower 80s in most Keys communities. Over the next several days, our region will lie on the southern periphery of a western Atlantic high pressure system aligned across the northern half of the Sunshine State.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions again for today as deep ridge remains over the area.
1006 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains. Best erosion of the cap this afternoon appears to be along this particular boundary, as well as the trof over south central SD. Temps should be cooler as thermal ridge shifts east of the region. Flat upper ridge mid week is forecast to amplify slightly for the end of the week and weekend. The ridge is not expected to be staunch enough to completely suppress convection, but an overall drier trend is anticipated.
Longwave ridging aloft continues, while at the surface weak high pressure will slide into the forecast area from the northwest.
This is a very plausible scenario considering the low level focus within this extremely moist environment.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over central MT into SASK.
949 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A warming trend is expected early this week as a warm front passes.
235 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A low pressure trough will continue over the region this week which will bring dry conditions and keep temperatures closer to normal for mid July.
By late Monday into early Tuesday 00z NAM, HRRR and to a lesser extent GFS have continued to show upper level disturbances swing through the base of the 500mb trough and kicking off significant rainfall across SW Arkansas Tuesday morning.
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Continued VFR with light surface winds and upper level high pressure centered west of the area. An upper level ridge still over the southwestern CONUS today will place the region in northwest flow aloft and best chances for late evening convection tonight. Similar to the past several evenings, convection will likely develop on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and drift to the southeast perhaps getting a cold pool boost as well. This upper high will expand east on Tuesday as Barry pulls off to the northeast.
Slightly drier, cooler air will move in behind this boundary.
418 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure anchored over Arizona and New Mexico will continue to be the dominant weather feature for our area today. Otherwise, expect another hot day across West Central Texas as the upper ridge axis strengthens its grip across the region.
Not a whole lot of change in the weather is expected this week as a weak trough persists along the West Coast.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure anchored over Arizona and New Mexico will continue to be the dominant weather feature for our area today. Otherwise, expect another hot day across West Central Texas as the upper ridge axis strengthens its grip across the region.
A weak undulation in the easterlies, collocated with a slug of increased moisture, is pressing west along the southern periphery of the low-level ridge. From synopsis, a high pressure cell will extend west across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period.
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A warming trend is expected early this week as a warm front passes.
Therefore, during the afternoon more clouds and scattered convection should develop, but the limiting factor will continue to be the subsidence associated with the upper level ridge over the area. Benign conditions are expected across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure holds over the area.
Did trend to a cooler solution as the past couple of days forecast highs have been a few degrees warmer than what was actually observed.
750 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Aviation - A round of warm frontal thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening.
640 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. High pressure aloft will continue to sit over the Southeast U. There will be a slight chance of diurnal convection due to the subsiding air underneath high pressure.
723 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A warming trend is expected early this week as a warm front passes.
439 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019 As the upper level trough of low pressure slowly inches south-eastward from the Canadian west coast throughout most of the forecast period, it will gradually work to shove the greatest influence of the ridge of high pressure further south away from our region.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to retreat back to Central and Southwest Montana for Monday and Tuesday, although a few showers may make it further north Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a stronger trof moves through the northwestern corner of the state.
Ridge axis over the central peninsula with weak low level wind fields allowing an early sea breeze onset.
644 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Currently watching a weakening mid-level trough and complex of storms move east through north central WI. Thunderstorm chances increase going through Tuesday night as another mid-level trough pushes in from the Plains.
530 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019 08z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trough to another low over northeast SD and trough into southeast WY. Both are assisting elevated convection with best activity over southeast MT per 850-700mb theta-e ridge. MLCIN erodes quickest over the higher terrain of the Black Hills spreading to the surface boundary by 00z each day.
841 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The 12Z sounding this morning showed northerly flow throughout the column, and this continental flow will allow dew points to mix out into the low/mid 60s across interior southeast Georgia and the mid/upper 60s across much of interior northeast Florida. Mid/upper level high pressure will remain over the area today, which will also help to suppress convection once again. Hot temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid/upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the interior, and the low/mid 90s at the beaches.
559 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Water vapor imagery currently shows remnants of Barry spinning over central AR with upper ridging stretching from the southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Still expecting 850mb temps to start increasing for Tue as upper ridging expands across the Southern Plains with temps expected to continuing warming into Wed. This will keep any cooler air well north of the area through Fri. However, ECMWF doesn't show this at all and actually keeps weak upper ridging over the northern Plains.
Temperatures today should warm a couple degrees over yesterday, particularly out west, and although guidance suggest slightly cooler temperatures for the eastern areas with some residual morning cloud cover, suspect they will still end up slightly warmer than guidance values and have nudged temperatures up a degree or two based on yesterday's performance. Should see cooler overnight lows as air mass dries out across the western valleys and have undercut model blends for lows in the typical cooler valley locations. While mid levels begin to dry out, there is still enough moisture for thunderstorms to form over the higher elevations by early afternoon and then move onto the plains later in the day.
Mid/high level convective debris clouds still look like they will increase toward Tue AM as the mid-level ridge moves s. /issued 332 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low centered over Arkansas. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer across the area today with highs generally ranging from the mid 90s to the triple digits. Highs on Tuesday may be a degree or two warmer than today and there is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.
1031 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. Weak trough along the coast. It appears that the upper ridge is a little stronger today and some model guidance suggests stronger mid level cap. A few of the high resolution models suggest widely scattered thunderstorms mainly across the south Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. High pressure aloft will continue to sit over the Southeast U. There will be a slight chance of diurnal convection due to the subsiding air underneath high pressure.
The warm front has pushed the lake breeze offshore in Sheboygan County with the front also moving farther nwd into central and nrn WI. Sct to numerous tstorms have developed near the warm front with support aloft from the vorticity maximum moving into west central WI. For Tue, the weakening cold front from the low moving across srn Canada will dissipate over nrn or central WI with very weak convergence along it.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. A weak undulation in the easterlies, collocated with a slug of increased moisture, is pressing west along the southern periphery of the low-level ridge. Low-level ridging will persist to our north, maintaining the generally east to southeasterly steering through the lower troposphere. Thereafter, there is low confidence in timing future undulations in moisture along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. We advertise 20-30% rain chances through the remainder of the forecast period as the subtropical ridging remains parked over the western North Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. A high pressure cell will extend west across Florida through the forecast period.
335 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cold front associated with a short wave north of the arrowhead of Minnesota may aid in initiating thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota through the evening hours. With higher amounts of cloud cover, have hedged slightly cooler on highs despite unseasonably warm air remaining aloft.
The main issue will be a couple short wave troughs that will move over the region tonight through Tuesday night.
Lows in the low 70s tonight followed by highs only in the low to mid 80s Tuesday should result from the cloudy and damp conditions promoting a small diurnal temperature trend. As the upper level ridge over the central U.
The strongest of these waves will generally skirt to our south as slight ridging tries to nudge in, but some of the thunderstorm activity may spill into far southwest and far south central North Dakota overnight. With the wave's glancing blow and most of the area behind a cold front passing through the state, severe weather prospects are looking less certain north of the ND/SD border tonight. On Tuesday, a stronger wave is ejected from the low amplitude west coast trough. Cooler temperatures and cloudy skies can be expected in the afternoon as the cold front clears the region. However, a northward drifting warm front/trough at the surface will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across the far south which may be the focus of a forward propagating MCS to move through Tuesday night.
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. Weak trough along the coast. It appears that the upper ridge is a little stronger today and some model guidance suggests stronger mid level cap. A few of the high resolution models suggest widely scattered thunderstorms mainly across the central Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the area's weather through mid week as the remnants of "Barry" move up the Mississippi and into the Ohio River Valley. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
/issued 611 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ Continued VFR with light surface winds and upper level high pressure centered west of the area. An upper level ridge still over the southwestern CONUS today will place the region in northwest flow aloft and best chances for late evening convection tonight. Similar to the past several evenings, convection will likely develop on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and drift to the southeast perhaps getting a cold pool boost as well. This upper high will expand east on Tuesday as Barry pulls off to the northeast.
Current 500-hPa model analyses further suggest that weak upper-level ridging will build in from the west, supported primarily by lower-tropospheric cold-air advection in the wake of the advancing system that brought storms through this afternoon. The cooler, drier air will also further inhibit the development of storms through Tuesday afternoon and evening, as significant amounts of the instability and moisture that were present this morning will push off to the south and east. Expect overnight lows tonight down into the lower 60s with cooler, less humid conditions tomorrow: temperatures will only reach into the mid/upper 80s with dewpoint temperature values only expected to reach into the mid-60s.
Upper ridge starting to reassert itself with subsidence and warming. Heat index readings again in the 100-106 range thanks in large part to a little less moisture in the lower levels. All in all, expect a return partly cloud and warm/humid summer conditions with Heat Indicies topping out in the lower to mid 100s each day, with max temps from 90-95 for the most part. Elevated tide levels continue and will let the high rip current advisory continue through 9 pm.
Frontal zone extending south to north across central South Dakota this morning was a good dividing line mainly between the high dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s to the east and lower to mid 60s dewpoints along the Missouri River. Slightly drier, cooler air will move in behind this boundary.
The low- level jet should then focus over northwestern SD later in the evening, which may favor locally heavy rainfall given PWs of 125-150 percent of normal and low-level frontogenesis.
However, temperatures are still warming quickly from mild lows in the lower 70s. Already in the lower 80s at 10 AM Knoxville and Chattanooga. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 92 73 / 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 92 72 / 20 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 90 68 / 30 20 20 20.
The flow aloft will be weak on the northeast side of the upper high, but they may be just strong enough to bring mountain convection this way.
335 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Models continue to show a typical summer time pattern, with high pressure over the western Atlantic bringing and east to southeast low and steering flow to South Florida. At 500mb, there is general ridging, with temps around -7C, plus or minus. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to maintain the east to southeast wind over the area through the weekend.
In addition, the increased cloud cover has tempered temperatures a bit with highs ranging from the low 90s in the west and low to mid 80s across far eastern KS. The warming trend ensues tomorrow as the remnants of Barry pushing eastward while the midlevel ridge expands across the central US. An attendant 850 mb thermal ridge will overspread the the Central Plains with 850 mb temperatures 21-25 C tomorrow afternoon -- translating to surface temperatures in the low to middle 90s.