Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1035 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 As a weather system exits the area this evening high pressure will gradually build over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and allow for a warming and drying trend under sunny skies to run through the rest of the week. An upper ridge will begin to build into the region through Wednesday. The ridge axis will remain off the coast resulting in a continued northwest flow aloft which will allow mid and high clouds to pass through the region at times especially over northern Washington and Idaho. This will be especially true tonight and Wednesday before the ridge begins to amplify Wed ngt shunting most of the clouds north and east of the region.
North to northeast winds will allow cooler air to advect into the area and should bring in some drier dewpoints. Therefore, temps will only get to around 80 for this afternoon, which is much cooler than the past week of temps being in the 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur in far southeast IL this evening as cold front pushes southeast into central KY. Clouds to continue to decrease from nw to se during tonight as cooler air filters into the region, as weak high pressure moves into IL and the Great Lakes region. Lows overnight range from mid 50s north of Peoria to the lower 60s in southeast IL.
WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND DRIER EDGE OF THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE WE EXPECT EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MEAN WESTERLY /DOWNSLOPE/ LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S F IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WHOLE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS /ALBEIT STILL IN THE 70S F IN MOST PLACES/.
Will carry areas of fog in most areas this morning, but may need a dense fog advisory in places especially near and west of Dodge City where the NAM and the RAP model shows the highest boundary layer relative humidity. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s with light southeast winds becoming south around 8 to 12 mph. This will push another cold front south through western Kansas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front across western Kansas by mid to late afternoon.
158 AM PDT WED SEP 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
427 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW POP ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. POPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
344 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TONIGHT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY.
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF THE FILLING NORTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
Precipitation will continue across southeast MO and southwest IL today into this evening until the upper level trough and upper level divergence just ahead of it, along with the surface/850 mb front shifts east southeast of our area. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today due to the cloudiness, rain, and weak low level cold air advection behind the cold front/850 mb trough.
651 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL THEN NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN, WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTIVE PROCESS TO BEGIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP TO THE FREEZING MARK OR LOWER FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR HUMBOLDT.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REFLECT THE DEEPENING TROF MOVING ONSHORE NOW ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TAPPING INTO A BIT MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STILL REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN PLAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 39 63 52 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 36 61 49 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 35 60 49 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 31 62 42 / 0 0 0 10.
CLEARING AND COOLER BY MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LINGERING SHOWERS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLIDING ONSHORE WILL BRING THE AREA ITS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 21Z OR SO. FOR THE WESTERN SJV THE WINDS WILL BE AT THERE STRONGEST MOSTLY LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TOMORROW. 35-ABOUT 1" ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY.
649 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
High pressure over the Carolinas will keep light northeasterly flow in place across the region.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. A TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
647 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
938 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL THEN NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THICKNESSES INCREASING WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.
THE UPPER LOW. THE LARGE AND LIVELY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WEAK SURFACE TROFFING NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
1010 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
918 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW HEIGHT FALLS TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT STILL ANOTHER MILD ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
404 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WRN CONUS TODAY AND WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE TODAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT AS THIS SATURATION OCCURS AND WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SATURDAYS HIGHS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
Precipitation will continue to increase in coverage tonight into Monday morning as warm advection/low level jet develops ahead of strong upper level low digging across the Intermountain West. In addition, strong/backed low level winds coupled with low LCL heights would suggest at least a limited tornado threat, especially across Southeast Oklahoma where instability will likely be the highest.
A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE REGION WITH THE FIRST SET TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
By Monday, a deep mid- level trough will be stretched along the western edge of the Rockies with a closed-low developing over the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure will be in place across the High Plains. This southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft (with the low-level jet over the forecast area) will result in strong moisture advection into the area.
Ridging action in the Plains today will make for a nice day with temperatures a little above normal thanks to persistent south wind; highs in the lower 60s. Attention then turns towards the rain that will spread across the Lower Missouri River Valley for the first half of the work week. Model solutions continue to paint a very wet picture across our section of the Nation over the next few day as a speed max round the base of the West Coast trough, slowing its progress across the Plains resulting in lots of rain.
Meanwhile, a stronger upper level trough is shifting southeast off the Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and much of California. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. As the low level jet peaks before sunrise, the low clouds should continue racing north.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EASTERN PAC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST IN THE PERIOD AND SPLIT. SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE/POS THETA-E ADV ALOFT COMBINED WITH GROWING LSA PER THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEST TO WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN BH WHERE 1-2 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AND ON PORTIONS OF THE PINE RIDGE NEAR THE NE BORDER WHERE TERRAIN AFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES AS WELL. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN TO ALL RAIN OVER SCENTRAL SD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z WED A 150 KNOT JET WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER IA. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO ALTA/SASK AT 84 HOURS WITH A 140 KNOT JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE.
As the low level jet peaks before sunrise, the low clouds should continue racing north.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS TO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH. /ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
1022 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. PREV DISC: LOW PRESSURE WL BE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TDA. UPR LVL TROF WL BE PASSING NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WL LKLY RESULT IN MORE CLDS ACRS THE NORTH BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PCPN. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
707 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL OF THE EASTERN U. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
608 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
553 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 Southerly winds between a departing area of high pressure, and a developing storm system, will help support another day with well above normal temperatures across central and southeast Illinois. Deepening upper trough just offshore of the West Coast early this morning. In the southern branch of the jet stream, a pronounced curl with an upper low was located over southern Utah. While this low will lift northeast into the Dakotas, moisture is already surging northward ahead of a trough just west of the Baja California peninsula. This moisture should rapidly surge northeast tonight as a significant upper low forms near Las Vegas within the deep trough.
CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP A BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW QUITE CLOSE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z MONDAY.
902 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
WHERE DEEPER AND RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED AHEAD OF DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.
HEAVY RAINS AND STREET FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO THIS POSSIBILITY: STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA, ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST, A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND ADD TO THE LIFT AND STRONG LOW- LEVEL EAST WINDS LEADING TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE IN A TRANSITION AREA OF SORTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS WELL, BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SETX THIS MORNING. AS THE VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES INTO CA/NV/AZ TONIGHT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM.
556 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 AVIATION QUIET AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
856 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL OF THE EASTERN U. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
5 INCHES, THE 24 HOUR TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT IS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. BELIEVE THAT THE WET HEAVY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DRIFTING, ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN DRIER THAN THE NAM FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS, BUT IS TRENDING IN THE LOWER/DRIER DIRECTION.
The next weather system, in the form of a trough and cold front, is currently in western Washington/Oregon, and is forecast to move into Idaho this evening and western Montana tonight. Snow levels will initially be around 7000 feet but will quickly drop as the cold front passes.
538 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
935 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
1017 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
535 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND 60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
A LLJ EARLY THIS MORNING IS STEADILY MOISTENING THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL ENHANCE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MEAN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE UNCAPPED. THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTENSIFIES IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM WEST TEXAS. DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
531 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WRN CONUS TODAY AND WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT AS THIS SATURATION OCCURS AND WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SATURDAYS HIGHS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
/ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
SHAMBURGER COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S BUT WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A TROF OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO BECOME NEGATIVE TILT.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN MODERATING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT FIND THEIR WAY EAST OF THE REGION.
LATE TNITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE GULF. WITH CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION OF MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SE TX. POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AS THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROF/LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.
515 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SETX THIS MORNING. AS THE VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES INTO CA/NV/AZ TONIGHT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM.
938 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
642 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT. RIDGE OFF THE COAST MONDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING ALSO STRENGTHENING.
556 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL OF THE EASTERN U. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
Forecast soundings still show mixing up to 900mb this afternoon which still favor the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs today.
VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TO 22Z TODAY. WHERE DEEPER AND RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED AHEAD OF DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.
/issued 302 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ Water vapor imagery depicts a shrtwv trof w of Baja Calif with an abundance of mid/upper level moisture within the sw aloft e of said shrtwv trof with -SHRA on radar. At the surface, lee troffing will commence today underneath the sw flow aloft maintaining well developed se winds resulting in increased surface dewpoints. Minor shrtwv trofs are still favored into Mon AM with 90-100kt jet at 3h, thus -SHRA/-TSRA possible. As upper low nears the mid levels will cool underneath a seasonally warm boundary layer.
646 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY.
Of note, there were a number of NCFR (Narrow Cold Frontal Rain) bands along the NW coast. This high-intensity precipitation could also translate into high snowfall rates across the Sierra for a few hours today. All told, 4-8 inches of snow are expected above 5000 ft, with 12 inches or locally greater possible along the highest peaks. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible today, along and behind the cold front.
CLOUDINESS OVER OREGON WILL SPREAD ACROSS IDAHO AS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST CROSSES SE OREGON 2-4 PM PST AND SW IDAHO SUNDAY EVENING.
WILL BLANKET THE AREA TODAY THUS LIMITING INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S. STRONG TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN EJECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AS DRYLINE TIGHTENS AND MOVES EAST. IS INDICATED AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTH AND WEST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
618 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MONDAY.
/ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ (Today and tonight) A large scale upper trough developing over the western United States today will move eastward.
320 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM CANADA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OF THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STAYS SOUTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM ERN SD INTO THE TX PNHDL.
1135 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.
With extensive cloud cover over the area, expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler today, except over central Illinois where it will probably be a bit warmer than yesterday due to the warm southwesterly flow ahead of the surface trof.
UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE 90KT 300MB JET WAS KNIFING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN ANY LIGHT RAIN OCCURS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR MONDAY UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE RIDING INTO THE PLAINS.
325 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.