Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1016 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest through tonight, then move south of the area by early this weekend. High pressure will then extend south into Georgia and the Carolinas into mid-week. Tonight: The cold front is expected to be slow to reach our area overnight, eventually dipping into northern SC zones late and probably toward daybreak. Lows will range from upper 60s far nw zones to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
12Z TAFS Cold front making its way across E TN this morning.
705 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest through tonight, then move south of the area by early this weekend. High pressure will then extend south into Georgia and the Carolinas into mid-week. Tonight: The cold front is expected to be slow to reach our area overnight, eventually dipping into northern SC zones late and probably toward daybreak. Lows will range from upper 60s far nw zones to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
Today and Tonight A cold front will push through the area today. Upper level ridging spreads across the area as a thermal high shifts eastward through the Midwestern States.
956 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure builds in today and remains over the region through Friday.
1004 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler and drier air will push into the area from the northwest today in the wake of a cold front.
/issued 434 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017/ Little change in the pattern aloft as the latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows the region beneath a narrow ridge between upper lows over the eastern Gulf and near the AZ/UT border in the west. The sfc cold front remains north of the area this morning, extending from northern LA into east TX and southwest toward the southern TX plains. Ahead of the front, warm and muggy conditions continue with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. 24 The cold front will slowly move southward acrs the area today and tonight, finally reaching the coast Friday morning. This, with limited support aloft due to continued ridging, will keep shower and tstm chcs on the low side, with activity generally isolated to widely sctd.
Forecasts have been updated a couple degrees warmer today and again Friday, continuing the current trend.
This rain is associated with an area of diffluence and deformation on the north side of a slowly advancing upper low over CO. Upper low over eastern Utah moving northward slowly this morning with an area of mainly light rain trying to cross into se Wy from northern Colorado at this time. This area eventually should cross into se Wy early this morning as the low continues to trek northward. Models continue to show the bulk of the pcpn staying over se Wy today and tonight, and mainly around the mtns from this afternoon onward as the upper low weakens some and drifts into sw Wy. The low continues to drift north Friday then opens into a trough Friday night in response to a larger system digging into the Pacific northwest.
1136 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Tropical storm Maria will accelerate eastward farther out to sea this afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region from the west.
High pressure is over the area early today, with only a thin band of cirrus running across the skies of Iowa and Illinois. Temperatures have radiated down to the lower to mid 40s in many locations already as of 2 AM. Today is a straight forward high pressure day, with light west winds and sunny skies. Highs in the lower to mid 70s are forecast by all guidance an that should seen in high confidence, in a dry air mass. Tonight, a secondary cold front will sweep through the region, with only mid clouds associated with it's passing. The passing band of clouds and winds from the northwest will help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the current night, and this results in mid 40s to lower 50s forecast.
601 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Surface analysis has a ridge of high pressure extending from Nebraska northeastward into WI while a trough of low pressure was pushing southeast from the Dakotas into MN. will be watching a mid-level trough and surface cold front drop southeast across the area. Otherwise, plan on highs today in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Clearing takes place after midnight as high pressure builds east out of the Plains.
Upper cutoff low is positioned across the Four Corners Region this morning, with little progression noted as the upstream ridge begins to build over the western high plains of Nebraska and Kansas. High pressure remains in control over northeast Kansas for the next 24 hours. Latest short term guidance is quite similar in high temps ranging from the low to middle 70s. Northeast winds become light and variable during the day as the ridge axis centers over the state. The axis of the upper low enters CO this evening with high plains convection anticipated over eastern CO and western KS. Much of the area remains dry and clear with morning lows falling into the low 50s.
917 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 An upper level low continues to spin in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Drier mid level and subsidence from the low will again support low rain chances across most of the forecast area the remainder of today. High pressure to the northwest of the coastal waters will maintain a light northeast to east wind flow at 10 knots or less with slight seas the remainder of the day with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Temperatures ranged from cooler 45F at Macomb, Galesburg and Lacon which were on the edge of these clouds, to milder lower 60s along highway 50 in southeast IL. 08Z/3 am surface maps shows 1026 mb high pressure over western Nebraska and ridging eastward into northern MO and western Great Lakes. NNW winds on east side of this ridge is filtering in cooler more fall like air into central IL. A cold front will slip southward across central IL during Friday as a fairly strong short wave trof moves across the great lakes and into the upper ohio river valley on Friday keeping its showers ne of IL along with the brunt of its CU/SC clouds. Even a bit cooler Fri night with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front over Central Alabama and Southern Mississippi while a 1026 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over portions of Iowa and Missouri. This is resulting in rain free weather and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the lower 70s at many locations. /issued 330 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the the lower 60s to lower 70s. The cold front which moved through the region yesterday is across central Mississippi at this time. Cooler and drier air is pushing into the region.
Mid morning surface analysis had a weak dry cold front between Interstate 20 and Highway 84. Despite the cold front, afternoon temperatures will top out warmer than normal across most of our CWA. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A surface cold front, moving through north MS at the moment, will continue its slow southward trek today and tonight and be completely through by sunrise Friday morning. While some convergence will be evident in the form of enhanced cloud cover, no convection is expected as ridge/warm air aloft inhibits significant vertical growth.
937 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A pleasant day is underway across the Tennessee Valley with a cold front traversing the area at this hour, bisecting the region from SW to NE. The noticeable effects from this fropa will arrive later this evening as cooler/drier air arrives from upstream. Lows tonight will dip into the 55-60F range, with the lower values occurring in sheltered valley locations of NE AL, and across much of Southern Middle TN. The influx of cooler air out of the N should certainly continue into the evening hrs, as cloud cover begins to diminish from the W. As a strong dome of high pressure out of the nrn Plains dives towards the SE, afternoon highs look to climb mainly into the upper 70s/near 80F both Fri/Sat under mostly sunny skies.
1030 AM MDT Thu Sep 28 2017 07z surface analysis had weak sprawling high pressure over the CWA. Water vapour had upper trough over eastern North America with ridge over the far west and cutoff low near the four corners area. Today into Friday, upper low will move northeast undercutting ridge. Gradient increases Friday as lee trough develops supporting breezy areas.
447 AM PDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure and continue weak offshore flow will keep temperatures above normal through Friday.
1009 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure will result in dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures today. Highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 70s.
An upper level ridge over the western U. will continue to shift east due to the approach of a Gulf of Alaska trough.
Cold front has edged south of our southern most terminals with drier low level conditions continuing to spread into our region from the north and east. /issued 1020 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017/ Cold front has moved through the region, at least as it can be measured by the wind shift. Over the wrn portions, closer to the upper trof and in the higher dew points, a few isold shwrs will be possible as we get into the peak daytime heating hours.
1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Latest RAP40 analysis shows a weak H100-H70 anticyclone centered just north of I-4, and a sfc col centered just north of Jax.
Morning sounding shows PWATs this morning are already approaching 2 inches, and will continue to increase through the day as flow becomes more southeasterly between the disturbance and the upper level low to our west.
/issued 330 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the the lower 60s to lower 70s. The cold front which moved through the region yesterday is across central Mississippi at this time. Cooler and drier air is pushing into the region.
746 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Aviation Mainly dry conditions are expected today as a ridge of high pressure moves through the region. Tonight a cold front will move into the area bringing with it the chance for rain showers. High pressure will build back in for the weekend with dry weather forecast.
1112 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler and more seasonable temperatures will be with us through the weekend.
1108 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 After a long stretch of summer like weather, a cold front has moved through with more seasonal weather behind it. A second shot of cooler air will arrive Friday as a potent upper level disturbance drops in from the Great Lakes. Post frontal weather this afternoon with cooler and drier air advecting in. Temperatures will be up to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with much more comfortable humidities. Wind slackens a bit tonight, and the northern tier may go calm as a weak ridge builds in. An expanding anticyclone will move down from central Canada Fri night and Sat.
Deep layer ridge was positioned from the TX coast to the TN River Valley and upper trof/low over the FL Peninsula. Despite the lower moisture profiles, the high resolution model guidance of the NAM-3KM, HRRR and WRF-ARW does show a few showers popping up over the interior eastern zones this afternoon as a frontal boundary sinks southeast into the area and may be enough to squeeze out some precipitation. Another unseasonably warm day expected today with highs in the lower 90s, which look to approach or may set new record highs over a few areas mostly over the coast.
920 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A weak low level trough extends from the Atlantic waters off of the Carolinas to the FL big bend. Mid to upper level trough also extends from upper level spinning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico to northern FL. Expecting highs in the lower to mid 90s.
At the surface, low is centered over north central South Dakota with trailing cold front extending through southwest SD into the NEB panhandle. Cold front will hang up across far southwest SD and the Blkhls on Tuesday and will be the focus for afternoon/evening storm development. Things should remain fairly capped on the SD plains given cooler easterly low level flow and subsidence behind tonight's short wave. Temps will be noticeably cooler across much of the area with readings struggling to get out of the 80s. A bit cooler for Tuesday with easterly winds and higher relative humidities.
Dewpoints were in the low to mid 70s across much of northeast Minnesota, in the warm sector ahead of the frontal boundary moving into western MN.
Scattered showers and storms continue moving inland across the region as the inverted mid/upper level trough continues to shift west southwestward into northeast Mexico. Tomorrow mainly isolated convection will be possible with the sea breeze along the coast and across the Brush Country with the last remaining forcing from the inverted trough to the west. The upper level ridge north of the region will being drifting further southeast Tuesday night, with further drying occurring. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer with less cloud cover and drier conditions across the region.
Hot conditions will be associated with the ridging and heat advisories may be required by the end of the week. Short wave trough moving northeast of the SC coast early this evening. Persistence with temperature forecast with overnight lows in the low 70s.
1055 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Cold front laying along a line from Rapid City to Wright to Cody this afternoon. Southeast surface winds out across western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas this afternoon with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s.
High pressure will begin to take control bringing a gradual warm up through the week. H5 ridge begins to build in on Tuesday. Lows will be slightly warmer only falling back into the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week. Weak wave of low pressure and assctd convection moved east of mts and into the Piedmont past few hrs. It looks like the upper trough will finally start to move east on Tuesday. Will need to maintain chance pops across SE VA/NE NC on Tuesday with the moisture continuing in advance of the trough. Will also go with isolated storms across the remainder of the area Tuesday afternoon given the upper trough axis is overhead.
This is possible given the higher PW air moving in. A ridge aloft extends from off the coast of SW CA, east across the southern Rockies and central Mississippi Valley. The ridge will build eastward, but still keep heights/thickness elevated over SoCal this week. At the same time, an easterly wave will drift across NW Mexico Tue/Wed, with a weak trough extending north across the CWA.
Currently, a bullish 500mb ridge continues to build, with it's axis impinging towards the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region.
1122 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A trough of low pressure will dissipate as it moves in from the west tonight.
However a brief window of opportunity for thunderstorms north of the highway 96 corridor exists beginning mid evening. The combination of mid upper 60s surface dew points and highs around 100 degrees or warmer across central Kansas may lead to heat advisory criteria being met.
Wet bulb zero and freezing levels remain high at 14. These high freezing levels mean that storms have little to no hail formation occurring and that rainfall processes are likely very efficient.
A 594dm 500mb height ridge centered over the southern plains will expand into the Midsouth by midweek.
544 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper level trough over the northern Rockies will continue to suppress the ridge today. Another area of low pressure will spin off the main trough later today and then intensify Tuesday off the Pacific Northwest coast. This trough amplifies and helps push the ridge axis to the east opening the gates for a tap to subtropical moisture. The ridge axis center continues to slide slightly east setting up over KS and OK. The ridge becomes less elongated and more compact.
The tail end of an upper level trough extending south-southwest along the Appalachian Mountains to the north central Gulf of Mexico will remain over the region through noon Tuesday. An upper high pressure area over central and southern plains will then begin to build into the region from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. the combination of a tightening pressure gradient resulting in increasing southerly winds over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the contrast between the cooler land temperatures overnight and the warm very moist gulf waters, will lead to the development of a coastal boundary that has been known to become prolific rain producers. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s inland areas, mid 70s along the coastal sections, with upper 70s at the beaches.
VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period due to high pressure moving across the region. showers and thunderstorms are possible again along the higher elevations of east Tennessee.
1256 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will build east through the central and southern Great Lakes through Tuesday night.
A boundary that was sitting from SW to NE across much of the area has mostly dissipated as its upper trough moves away to the northeast.
/issued 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ Weak high pressure at the surface and several upper level impulses on the periphery of the forecast area will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across southern and eastern portions of forecast area. The models all show some drying as the upper ridge builds eastward tomorrow, and PWATs drop under 1. High pressure builds over the forecast area through the end of the week and low chance or slight chance pops look okay. Upper level low developing over the northeast Gulf may affect pops for the weekend but for now will leave pops alone.
A weak trough at the surface and a trough aloft has allowed for scattered storms again today.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ Weak upper level trof over western KS will pull away from two high pressure systems this evening. Strong high pressure will build over the southern plains through the rest of the week.
Hot conditions will be associated with the ridging and heat advisories may be required by the end of the week. High resolution models suggest some redevelopment overnight as the short wave trough now to our west slowly moves east. Persistence with temperature forecast with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Tuesday will see dry and slightly warmer conditions during the day.
The midnight update included the addition of POPs over the ridges of WV and MD as convection developed along apparent outflow from previous convection. A warm ridge is expected to otherwise suppress rainfall for the start of the short term period.
High pressure will begin to take control bringing a gradual warm up through the week. Patchy fog will be possible across the region due to the high boundary level moisture. H5 ridge begins to build in on Tuesday. Lows will be slightly warmer only falling back into the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure holding on for one more day. High pressure will continue to slide SE through the forecast area through the day Tuesday. A weak cold front will be knocking on the door of our eastern Upper counties by Tuesday evening. This will bring a warmer, more humid airmass tomorrow. Clouds will increase NW to SE throughout the afternoon as the cold front approaches, with shower chances increasing similarly over night. Central NOAM flow regime becoming a bit more progressive as northern extent of western ridge has succumbed to strong energy rotating into Western Canada. This "flattened" ridge will center itself over the central and southern plains in the coming days, with a rapid flow regime developing on its northern periphery across the northern Conus and southern Canada.
1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Heat remains the primary concern over the forecast period as the upper-level ridge continues to expand and strengthen across the eastern Plains.
High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but another front will move down from the north and stall over the region for the latter half of the week. Baroclinic zone laying down across central PA late this evening and still maintaining for the time being isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms from the Laurels through the ridge and valley region of central PA. Cooler mins expected northwest mountains where drier air seeps in. with lower 70s over portions of the lower Susq.
/issued 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ One more afternoon/evening of isolated convection looks possible today before an upper level ridge shuts down the convection chances. An upper ridge will intensify over the Central and South Plains through late week aiding in keeping convection chances minimal. This upper ridge will shift into the Mississippi River valley by late week beginning to place West Texas in a height weakness aloft.
Should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow as ridge aloft begins to amplify.
Otherwise drier and cooler airmass working into the fa should keep severe threat to our south.
/issued 932 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ The ridge aloft is providing a fairly standard summer night across Oklahoma and north Texas. Currently, a bullish 500mb ridge continues to build, with it's axis impinging towards the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region.
Early 00Z guidance suggests temps may be a degree or so warmer than current forecasts, but will wait for full 00Z guidance before making any changes. A 594dm 500mb height ridge centered over the southern plains will expand into the Midsouth by midweek.
Quiet and warm tomorrow night as well as upper ridge continues to approach from the west and surface ridging builds in.
High pressure over the area will keep skies mostly clear. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 72 92 / 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 66 88 / 10 10 10 20.
The sfc-850 mb thermal ridge via a 20-30 kt swly LLJ will move from central WI to srn WI from the afternoon into the evening followed by a slow moving cold front. MLCAPEs may rise to 2000 J/kg but there is uncertainty how far south the cold front or outflow boundaries will reach into srn WI. High pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes region tonight with low pressure strengthening over the northern Plains states.
Light south to southwest flow will develop on Tuesday as the high pressure center shifts east of the region.
With mostly cloudy skies, highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than today. Sprawling mid level high pressure over the Southern Plains will continue through much of the period.
922 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight with high pressure building in and a relatively dry air mass in place. Expect minimal cloud cover, light/variable winds, and slightly cooler than normal low temperatures for mid July.
/Issued 335 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ An upper ridge will strengthen over the area this week bringing hot and humid weather, with little to no chance of rain. The ridge will begin to shift east and weaken this weekend, which may allow a weak front to move into the area by the end of the forecast period.
1259 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 A trough of low pressure will dissipate as it moves in from the west tonight.
902 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A trough of low pressure will dissipate as it moves in from the west tonight.
Additionally, convection over the far southeastern ridges has died and clearing is too impending there. As ridging builds in aloft and subsidence takes over, not to mention low level flow becoming a bit more southerly, the boundary should largely wash out. Fries Higher 500mb heights will creep into the region, with warmer air continuing to move into the area.
Models not changing their story of upper high shifting eastward into midweek. Warm air aloft and subsiding air with the upper ridge will also work to lessen coverage of any convection that fires across the higher terrain.
Nevertheless expect another active t-storm afternoon with upper trough over the area.