Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH WELL SEAWARD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHT VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORE INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ON MON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THEN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA FRI-SAT AND WINDS SHOULD RETURN OUT OF THE E/SE. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW END POPS (MOSTLY 20 WITH OCNL 30 PCT NORTH OR ALONG SE COAST) IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY BUT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH AND RIDGING ALOFT FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE BAY AREA.
SATELLITE REVEALS THE SPREADING OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO OUR NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC IS THE CULPRIT. THE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE RESULT OF THE SHIFTING RIDGE WILL DECREASE WINDS SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ADVECT INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS SOUTH TEXAS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
121 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD MAKING ROOM FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT HAVE FORECAST.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WAA PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRIMARILY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST.
THE ABOVE NOTED STORM SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING ABOUT MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING FORMING OVER THE EAST. A TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING START RAIN CHANCES OVER NW ALABAMA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEK. WITH NO OTHER READINGS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND AFTER THE 25TH WILL BE IN JEOPARDY IF THESE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS HOLD.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT HOLD OFF ON THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT 210800Z-210900Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO VERIFY BETTER ONCE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WARMING TREND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ASHORE.
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER AT BURNS AND BAKER CITY IN RESPONSE TO THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. DENSE FOG FORMED DURING THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER BASIN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALREADY OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STILL CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGH TEMPS LOWER ACCORDINGLY. THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL LAST IN THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE NIGHT WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. MODELS HINT AT A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA DUE TO STUBBORN RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. AND RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY INTO A MOIST AND VERY MILD AIR MASS.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SHOWERS DIMINISH INTO MONDAY UNDER WEAK RIDGING AND A LOSS OF FORCING IN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL PROVIDE A COOLER NIGHT THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RENEW SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST. WITH A LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN BRIDGE DOWN TOWARD KCDS BY MIDDAY.
1045 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALL ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS SEEING A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Upper ridge will move off to the east early today allowing upper flow to become southwesterly. There may be a few showers develop over the area by late in the day in any moisture convergence that develops in the low levels, but chances will remain rather low. Temperatures will be warmer today with the warm air advection. Highs will be closer to the warmer GFS MOS temperatures in most areas.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE 850/700 MB RIDGE IS DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SURFACE COUNTERPART. ALLOWING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING LEVEL WINDS TO ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
MEANWHILE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PRESSURE RIDGE, THE RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IS PUSHING WARMER AIR AND CLOUDS OUR WAY. SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING, AS A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE COUNTRY MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
1104 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas looks to have the better of the chances overnight tonight ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into/through the CWA late tonight/Monday.
HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT MORE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN OVERLY PESSIMISTIC WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WITH WARM AIR OUTRUNNING THE MOISTURE WE WILL BE WARMER WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT WILL QUICKLY PULL A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST.
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT.
322 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY. WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SUBTLE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
335 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 Satellite showing a few breaks in the high overcast but those will be short-lived as moisture continues to stream into the area. Tomorrow the cold front edges closer to the area and may produce some enhanced lift over southeast Missouri and areas near the Mississippi River during the afternoon to initiate a couple of thunderstorms.
352 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO IS PICKING UP MOISTURE THAT CAN BE TRACED THE WHOLE WAY BACK TO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF HAWAII. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STILL CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGH TEMPS LOWER ACCORDINGLY. THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL LAST IN THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE NIGHT WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. MODELS HINT AT A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA DUE TO STUBBORN RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH ALL OF CHRISTMAS WEEK.
12z NAM does drop thickness down to 543 dm on the higher terrain this evening, so mentioned the mix. Associated cold front along a Wakeeney-Syracuse line at 6 pm will make quick progress across SW KS this evening, reaching Kiowa and Barber county around midnight. Afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s on the lingering melting snowpack, to the lower 50s elsewhere. Highs on Monday, with light and variable winds, will be cooler and around 50 degrees as cooler high pressure settles into the area.
A weak cold front is forecast to move into the CWA late tonight. Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas looks to have the better of the chances overnight tonight ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into/through the CWA late tonight/Monday.
12z NAM does drop thickness down to 543 dm on the higher terrain this evening, so mentioned the mix. Associated cold front along a Wakeeney-Syracuse line at 6 pm will make quick progress across SW KS this evening, reaching Kiowa and Barber county around midnight. Afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s on the lingering melting snowpack, to the lower 50s elsewhere.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT THERE IS MUCH LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED LAYERS.
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN AHEAD OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
Around midnight, a cold front of Pacific origin will move west to east across the area, but will have little sensible effect on weather.
A LARGE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER LONG WAVE TROF IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER IN CA.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. MINIMIZING THE FREEZING THREAT. THE LOW LIFTS INTO MICHIGAN LATER MONDAY MORNING. BUT MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WAA PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS GLAKES AND THEN UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IN AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE SHORT TERM SNOWFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ON MONDAY. MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN BLOWN INTO DRIFTS AND IS RATHER HARD PACKED NOW.
148 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH, WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY UNDERWAY AND COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE COMING DAYS, KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH DEW POINTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES AFTER 05Z. BR AND IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY OCCUR NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS VERY STRONG WITH 850 MB WINDS 45 TO 55 KT IN THE ADVISORY AREA. FOG MAY FORM AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-44 NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1123 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA.
300 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST.
WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER/BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE -SHRA SPREADS FARTHER E AND A WARM FRONT SHIFTS N ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORCED EWD BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EWD AND IS CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SLY SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROF EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND TRAILS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OUR REGION YET AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE NUDGED EWD AND JUST E OF OUR REGION AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD THU.
The eastern Ozarks should experience the higher frequency of showers heading into early Monday morning.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI TNGT INTO MON MORNING AS TEMPS HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. THUS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRIZZLE OF LIGHT RAIN THRU THE EVENING UNTIL FROPA LATER TNGT WHEN COOLER AIR MAY MIX IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THUS LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW. CNTRL WI SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID-LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF GREEN BAY MONDAY NIGHT.
941 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INDICATING A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LURKING OVER THE REGION.
WITH WARMER 50S RESULTING FROM A STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE SOUTEHAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HELPING TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN SO TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE PEAKED IN SOME SPOTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDING NEWD FM THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN KS/ERN NEB. ANY PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT SE OF THE FA BY 12Z MON WITH CAA THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS. BUT THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC. NOT ONLY DO THEY DIFFER IN EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT GIVEN THE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KYNK THROUGH KONL TO KMCK AS OF 17Z.
1000 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN. WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES REGION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD AS NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER AIR. BUT SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL SD. WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING NE WY INTO NW SD WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS SOUTH TEXAS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
1239 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS WITH SCATTERED SHWRS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORCED EWD BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EWD AND IS CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SLY SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROF EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND TRAILS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OUR REGION YET AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE NUDGED EWD AND JUST E OF OUR REGION AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD THU.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KLFT TO KIAH TO KCOT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DUE TO THE WARMER START TO THE DAY AND DRY ADVECTION. LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 589 DM SO ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE.
456 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
BUT MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON. AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
340 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
349 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 RAINFALL EXITING QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOL ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
306 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
149 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
649 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DORMANT AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE WHICH STRETCHES WEST FROM FLORIDA BAY INTO THE GULF SIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. IN THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 PRECIP IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD START IMPACTING THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS TO FROPA.
328 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
639 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
An elongated ridge of high pressure sliding across the region from northwest to southeast will provide us with a very nice autumn weekend. Some moisture may get trapped in the low levels today, resulting in patchy clouds especially this morning into early afternoon south of the Ohio. Tonight will be clear and calm with the center of the high moving overhead.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY AFTN WITH 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13C. THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 50 METERS BY 12Z SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO PLATTE COUNTY AS THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT (700MB WINDS AROUND 50-55 KTS).
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH PARTLY SUNNY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LARGE AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS DURING THIS TIME.
547 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
Upper ridge axis slides east form the Northern Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains tonight with low level winds slowly increasing from the southwest. Sunday still shaping up to be quite the warmup, as mid level temperatures rise into the low 20s for much of the area by late afternoon. If the front and leading thermal ridge speed up a few hours, may see temps rise a few more degrees more.
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 (Today and Tonight) Quiet and pleasant weather is in store for West Central Texas today as a mid/upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Temperatures will be warmer today with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s. We'll see mostly clear skies tonight with light south winds and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s.
The upper low that was responsible for the past several days of showers is west of Central Baja California with a ridge building into West Texas. Today should be warmer and drier. From Sunday thru the end of the upcoming week it will be dry as ridging remains in control across the CWA. Sunday will be 5-10 degrees above normal with low level downslope flow and a H85 thermal ridge overhead.
230 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY ON TAP AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER RIDGE SPREADING EAST. FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT.