Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Northeast Montana will see a transition from the departing cool and slightly unsettled conditions to an upper- level ridge bringing in warmer temperatures. But moving quickly behind the ridge Thursday evening will be a weak clipper hugging the International Border and sending a cold front south into the local area. Winds behind the cold front will generate northwest winds of around 15-20kt beginning Friday morning. The increased mixing from the wind and the rebounding ridge should keep temperature near normal, but maybe slightly higher.
815 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Another quiet night is expected across the forecast area with high pressure in place both aloft over the southeast and offshore the eastern seaboard at the surface. High pressure centered to our northeast will keep a northeast to east wind flow in place through tonight and Thursday, with an easterly surge increasing winds to exercise caution levels for a few hours overnight into early Thursday.
Tonight through Thursday The last of the trough and cyclonic curvature is now moving over northern and central Wyoming and continues to produce some rain and snow showers. Quiet weather will be the rule tomorrow as ridging builds back over the area.
Models also are in great agreement on forecast highs for Thursday, mainly in the lower to middle 60s, west to southeast respectively. This cooler airmass should set up a much cooler night Thursday night with drier air making near freezing temperatures in the west by Friday morning a reasonable assumption. Another warming trend develops immediately by late week as upper ridge sets in again.
Focus for this forecast period remains the approaching upper trough and associated cold front that will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through early Friday, along with much cooler temperatures this weekend. Cold front is currently stalled north of the Ohio River Valley, and will begin to progress towards the southeast later today and tomorrow. High temperatures will be much cooler, with highs only in the low to mid 60s for most of the area and upper 50s on the Plateau.
A cold front, situated from Vigo Park to Needmore at 2pm. Cooler temperatures will be short lived at the end of this week following the cold front today. The center of an upper level ridge will move from west to east across central Texas this weekend.
620 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A weak and diffuse cold front will move through area tonight. But cooler air will build southward into the area through the day such that temperatures will be a bit below normal with highs in the lower to middle 60s. The high pressure associated with this cooler air will help keep temperatures cool through Friday. As the high shifts to the east, winds will swing back to the south and allow for temperatures to warm up closer to or above normal for the weekend.
928 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A mean layer high pressure ridge remains across the Carolinas to Alabama with relatively moist conditions beneath a subsidence inversion around 7500 feet per the 00z JAX sounding.
1055 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Mainly dry weather is expected under high pressure today.
High pressure aloft will expand across the interior west midweek, resulting in dry and stable conditions.
Southeast winds today gradually veering to the south ahead of the next cold front which will transit the coastal waters on Wednesday night.
Today looks to be the coolest day of the week as the area remains under northwest flow aloft as an upper low shifts off to the east and upper ridging begins building into the western CONUS. Although relatively cooler compared to the last few days, readings in the 20s (north) and 30s (south) will still be above average.
with a warm frontal boundary slinking sewd into the forecast area. Enhanced lift from these features will work in concert with increasing deep moisture and weak destabilization in the warm sector to produce widespread convection later today, mainly along/near the attendant cold front.
An upper level trough currently over northern Manitoba will travel across the Great Lakes Region later this afternoon. This system will being cooler temperatures via gusty northerly winds into the area. A broad area of high pressure will slide across the region later tonight with winds becoming light and variable.
403 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 Water vapor imagery showing strong high pressure ridging aloft building over northern Rocky Mountain region with a moderate northerly flow aloft over Colorado.
The upper ridge over the area will shift east today as a Pacific system pushes east towards the region. Visibilities are running a half mile or less over a good portion of the Lower Basin zones and will issue freezing fog advisories. Thus significant snow fall will be limited to the highest mountain peaks. A bigger problem will be freezing rain. At this time feel confident enough that surface temps will be cold enough and precip will be sufficient enough to warrant freezing rain advisories for the Washington Cascade east slopes and the Kittitas valley.
642 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Weak high pressure builds south of the area Tuesday with mainly sunny skies and highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. Another strong upper trof of low pressure will move east to southeast from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday allowing a coastal low to rapidly intensify off the Maine coast by Wednesday night bringing potentially heavy snows across a good portion of Maine and New Hampshire.
Going cooler on temperatures today than the previous forecast, based on new guidance and the fact that the fropa should be a bit faster (and thus less time for heating before the boundary moves through). However, the forecast humidity may be a bit on the high side so the feeling is to put out a RFD (elevated fire danger risk) for Webb, Duval and La Salle Counties for today. Should be a nice cool and mainly clear night, with some cirrus around due to the positively inverted trough west of the area.
Upper ridge over SE Oregon and SW Idaho will shift east on Wednesday. The winds should be enough to weaken the inversion, except in the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin where the inversion will likely persist.
A decelerating "backdoor" cold front and associated trough have forced a weak, narrow ridge over the service area, resulting in the weaker pressure pattern and light/variable breezes.
Temperatures are running a bit cooler across much of the region and generally range from the upper teens and 20s in the mountain valleys to the 40s in the Central Valley.
Tonight a ridge of high pressure builds into the area, settling across the western forecast area by Wednesday morning. While we have a ridge moving across the mid and high level moisture levels should keep cloud cover up.
An upper level low located over northern Texas this morning will progress eastward into Oklahoma today dragging a trailing cold front through the area. with a warm frontal boundary slinking sewd into the forecast area. Enhanced lift from these features will work in concert with increasing deep moisture and weak destabilization in the warm sector to produce widespread convection later today, mainly along/near the attendant cold front.
Colder air will return to the entire region as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday.
Northwest flow aloft remains overhead with a strong ridge over the northwestern US and a trough across much of Ontario. This trough will send a weak shot of cold air advection skirting into our area as the trough drops southeast through the Great Lakes region today. Favorable northwest mixing winds could produce some gusts this afternoon into the 30 mph range but these should subside by evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with broad high pressure building overhead. The above mentioned Great Lakes trough is forecast to push into the northeastern US by Wednesday allowing the above mentioned upper ridge to build into the central US.
Drier and warmer weather is on tap for most of the work week.
Temperatures will also be slightly warmer than normal due to ridging and southeast to easterly flow, which will likely result in some downsloping winds over the West Side this afternoon. The ridge currently in place over the region will slide to the east under pressure from a large trough over the Eastern Pacific.
546 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Surface map this morning had a cold front extending from eastern Upper Michigan through eastern Wisconsin. Temperatures as of 2 am were in the lower to middle 30s. For today, a mid-level trough and secondary surface cold front drops southward through the area this afternoon. Look for temperatures to climb into the mid 30s/lower 40s ahead of the cold front.
The cold front that has already moved through the area will resume it's push south in the wake of the upper wave with the front progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean Sea.
Meanwhile, Water Vapor satellite trends indicate an upper level low located near the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico. WSR-88D radar trends show rain associated with this upper level low already producing rain over much of northern and western Arkansas early this morning. An upper level low near the Texas Panhandle is expected to move east across the Red River Valley today, Southern Arkansas tonight, and across portions of Northern/Central Mississippi towards Wednesday morning. Surface and upper level ridging will build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley as the surface/upper level low moves east.
The upper low will track across northwest Texas this morning, then east along then Red River by this afternoon. As the upper low tracks east, there will still be some light wrap around rain lingering across the Big Country through the afternoon hours. Highs this afternoon will range from the the lower and middle 40s across the Big Country, to around 50 along the I-10 corridor.
757 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Mainly dry weather is expected under high pressure today.
/Issued 443 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ A closed upper low will pass east across the southern Texas Panhandle or the northern portions of the Texas South Plains region today. Forecast soundings, 850 mb temps, and thickness values suggest the precipitation should be either snow or rain as temps remain just above freezing with thickness values around 544 and 546 dkm this morning and 850 mb temps around 0 to -0. A moderating trend commences Wednesday through the end of the week as an upper ridge tries to build in from the west.
455 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 Dry and warmer conditions are expected in the short term period.
WV imagery indicates a closed off upper level low moving eastward across the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is sinking southward across the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Winds will be from a northerly direction through tonight as high pressure dominates the area. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the lower 50s with lows tonight ranging from the mid 20s across northwest Kansas to around 30 degrees across south central Kansas.
High pressure over the region will bring dry conditions along with warming afternoon temperatures through Wednesday.
443 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 A closed upper low will pass east across the southern Texas Panhandle or the northern portions of the Texas South Plains region today. Forecast soundings, 850 mb temps, and thickness values suggest the precipitation should be either snow or rain as temps remain just above freezing with thickness values around 544 and 546 dkm this morning and 850 mb temps around 0 to -0. A moderating trend commences Wednesday through the end of the week as an upper ridge tries to build in from the west.
442 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will be in control of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle weather for the remainder of the week.
1039 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
Current radar imagery indicates an area of showers from Arkansas to Kentucky with isentropic lift to the north of the warm front. Dry air in the low-levels is making it difficult for precipitation to make it to the ground on the eastern edge. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 42 51 30 / 20 90 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 40 49 29 / 20 90 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 39 50 28 / 30 90 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 36 45 26 / 20 90 70 0.
Upper level ridge in place over the region this morning. Glancing at the current observations many of the mountain stations are anywhere from 5 to 9 degrees warmer than they were yesterday morning at this time. Temperatures in the lower valleys will generally be near normal while the higher valleys will be a few degrees above normal today and Wednesday. The ridge will begin to break down by Wednesday followed by an increase in clouds.
527 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Sharp ridge over the western CONUS between Aleutian low and cutoff low over the Texas panhandle and Hudson Bay low. Even with clear skies and good insolation gusty northwest winds will advect cooler air from the northwest across western and northern Nebraska. Jet stream to the northeast keeping much cooler temperatures at bay. Tonight winds becoming light westerly downslope component as upper ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east across western Nebraska.
615 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Generally under high pressure which should keep us fairly dry. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
Regional radar shows light returns across central Illinois and central Indiana associated with weak upper level divergence from a 140 kt 300 mb jet streaking across the lower Great Lakes. Sprinkles or light rain showers were observed in some parts but the lower levels remain quite dry which has kept the bulk of the precipitation from reaching the ground. The highest chances will come late this evening through tonight. For Wednesday, the two systems will phase off the mid-Atlantic coast which will help to amplify the upper level trough across the eastern CONUS. Plan on highs to stay in the low 40s.
549 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a closed low in the southern Rockies and a trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning.
A weak surface and upper ridge over Alabama was producing calm winds at the surface and a dry air mass aloft. Dry cold advection will continue Wednesday evening as high pressure moves in from the west. Temperatures may drop just below freezing for much of the northern part of the forecast area.
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move over the western Atlantic late today.
The amplified upper flow pattern over North America has high pressure centered over the Pacific Northwest with a ridge extending north through the Yukon Territory to the Arctic Ocean.
A cold front will bring a brief spell of more seasonable temperatures and possibly a few snow flurries late tonight into early Wednesday morning otherwise the work week will remain dry.
This low will northern Gulf Coast States through tonight. A long wave trough will pickup the low after dropping southward across the Great Lakes early Wednesday. Will likely be adjusting winds for Wednesday through the weekend this afternoon due to a cold front reaching the Keys area, before stalling nearby, and a weak ridge moving quickly southeast toward the Keys.
High temperatures will reach around 80 near the east coast and the lower 80s over the interior.
Another low pressure system will bring more snow to the region starting tonight through Wednesday night.
827 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Mainly dry weather is expected under high pressure today.
/issued 345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at 08Z. Trough is forecast to move thru north Texas today, ending up over SE OK by 00Z Wednesday. Meridional flow will persist over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as a secondary trough pinches off over nrn Sonora by 12Z Wed.
505 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 In a cold air advection pattern behind yesterdays frontal passage, will see cooler temperatures for today, albeit it still above normal for this time of year. Both the GFS and the NAM are suggesting stratus dropping through Minnesota overnight, and cannot rule out that this would scrape our far eastern MN/IA zones after 06Z, though at this time it appears that much of this low level moisture will remain to the east of our area.
515 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure provides dry weather with mild temperatures today. A cold front tonight brings showers back tonight.
Wet-bulbing in the low-levels will be sufficient enough for a few snow flakes/sleet pellets at the onset of the precipitation. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 42 51 30 / 20 90 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 40 49 29 / 20 90 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 39 50 28 / 30 90 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 36 45 26 / 20 90 70 0.
544 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast today. Low pressure tracking eastward through the Gulf Coast States and a cold front dropping southeastward from the Midwest will be in the forecast area Wednesday bringing showers and possible thunderstorms.
Rain wl cont to overspread the rest of the area today, with the highest QPF amts still expected to occur along and S of the I-40 corridor.
The main feature remains the cold front, draped from roughly Lubbock to Tulsa.
with the cold front still on track to sag into the area tonight. Broad high pressure over the southeast U. Doppler radar is indicating storms rumbling through FTW/DAL metroplex this morning ahead of a weak cold front.
741 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will persist through tonight.
While most of the night will be dry, showers are then expected to develop through the Highway 14 corridor during the very early morning hours of Friday. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Model guidance remains in good agreement, sliding a cold front through the area early on Friday along with a reasonable chance for a chilly rain. Latest trends have shifted the highest rain chances slightly further north, but should continue to have the highest chance of precipitation over the far northeastern CWA. Winds will remain a bit mixy through the night, but with clear skies, radiational cooling should drop lows near or below freezing.
Cold front will make its way slowly across the region today from nw to se. As it does so, mid/upper level trof will swing east into the mid MS River Valley this afternoon. Unseasonably chilly high pressure will then take over for much of the weekend.
Today begins with a zonal flow aloft and high pressure ridging over the north Florida. Troughing will be in place aloft over the eastern half of the country to start the weekend with ridging out west.
Isolated showers will be possible across the far northern and eastern portions of the area associated with an approaching cold front and the east coast seabreeze, respectively.
908 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front south of the Erie lakeshore will push north later today. Meanwhile a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley will move east across the area tonight.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move into northern California over the weekend bringing slight cooling and locally breezy conditions. This translates to highs in the lower 90s in Las Vegas this afternoon.
851 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 Warmer today with low clouds likely clearing out of inland areas by early afternoon and some clouds possibly sticking to the beaches for most of the day.
Late morning surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging (1021 millibars) extending westward along the Interstate 10 corridor. A significant trough was digging southward from the Upper Midwest, driving a cold front through the western Great Lakes and extending southwestward through the Arklatex region. Inland highs will reach the low/mid 90s this afternoon, with low to mid 80s at the Atlantic beaches as onshore winds increase to 10-15 mph. Drier air just off the surface seen in the 12Z sounding from Jacksonville will mix down to the surface this afternoon, with dewpoints falling to near 60 where highs reach the low/mid 90s, thus negating any significant heat index concerns. A cold front will approach our region from the west on Friday, keeping southwest to southerly winds in place and likely preventing much of an afternoon sea breeze in the near shore waters.
1114 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Cold front is slowly advancing through the region this morning. A cold front is making slow progress across central Illinois early this morning, and is currently in the vicinity of the I-55 corridor. Otherwise, it will be cooler and less humid today behind the front, with most locations topping out in the lower 70s. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 40s and lower 50s which area pretty close to normal for mid May. Showers likely Friday evening with scattered thunderstorms, then diminishing from nw to se during overnight Friday night as a northern stream system tracks ESE into the southern Great Lakes Friday night and pulls a cold front se across central IL. Highs Fri in the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a bit cooler than today's expected highs.
With 925mb temperatures down to around 2C in the gfs, expect surface readings down into the low to mid 30s, however a pressure bubble and cold advection will also result in mixing conditions which should keep frost at bay for Friday morning. Between the James and Missouri Valleys there will be a transition from mixing to favorable radiational conditions, so northwest counties will likely fall the lowest.
Freezing temperatures expected across the north may result in a freeze warning needed.
648 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 The surface trof will be nearly all the way through the CWFA by 12Z. The drier air is lagging somewhat behind the wind shift and surface trof. Cold air advection along with abundant cloud cover should keep temperatures from warming much higher than the low to mid 70s. Carney High pressure over the eastern Plains at 00Z Friday will move quickly southeast into Arkansas by Friday morning. The only limiting factor will be boundary layer moisture since the high pressure system to our south will be blocking strong low level moisture transport. Even with pooling ahead of the front we might not see dewpoints higher than the low to mid 50s. The high pressure system that builds in behind Friday's cold front will be a truly cold airmass for mid May.
1205 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area into Friday. A trough of low pressure will approach late Friday afternoon and cross the area Friday evening. Another quiet day on tap across the Pine Tree State as the region remains entrenched under high pressure.
Flash flood watch for northern Middle Tennessee today and this Upper trough over the area has moved little last several hours with convection once again firing over Illinois and sinking southward down into western Kentucky. Synoptically warm front is currently draped from central Illinois into Ohio with cold front running southward from west central Illinois down through southwest Missouri into north central Texas. with several watches out along and ahead of cold front. Cold front will pull east and be along the Mississippi river by 18z today and into western Middle Tennessee by 00z.
A cold front will sweep through the Mid Atlantic on Friday. Much cooler air will arrive for the upcoming weekend. Combined with solar heating, there will likely be some showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Since the cold front is currently approaching the Mississippi River, the amount of moisture is increasing as evidenced by precipitable water values exceeding one inch on the 12Z RNK sounding. Overall, the weather remains unsettled until the cold front can reach the Mid Atlantic by early Friday morning. A cold front will pass over the region Friday morning with light rain exiting the Piedmont by noon.
1045 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 A relatively flat upper ridge will develop behind the departing upper trough this morning.
The severe threat will continue across southeast Oklahoma for the remainder of the early morning hours as thunderstorms move into the higher instability axis.