Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, the H500 vorticity lobe within the northern longwave trough swings across the Rockies and over the north/central plains as the meridional jet streak digs on the backside of the upper trough. This energy pushes the cold front into northwestern Oklahoma just after midnight and brings a low probability of showers across our far eastern counties later tonight and into early morning.
High pressure will sit over the region through the coming weekend, maintaining dry weather.
302 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A cold front is currently pushing south across Wyoming, mainly east of the Divide. To the East of WY a deep trough will continue to dig down across the eastern US, while to the West a high pressure ridge will begin to settle in.
A blocking high pressure pattern will promote quiet weather conditions and near to above normal temperatures through the weekend. Mild temperatures and dry conditions will continue under a ridge of high pressure through midweek. A few valleys will drop below freezing but widespread upper 20s are not expected.
638 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) High pressure continues to push east, leading to the return of onshore flow for Southeast Texas. Also with the earlier timing of the FROPA, cold air advection behind the front has more time to cool off our temperatures, so I nudged overnight lows down a few degrees on Wednesday night with lows reaching the low to mid 60s north of Conroe and the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
810 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to end as the cold front has made it through the majority of the forecast area allowing RH values to rise well above critical criteria.
Key Point: - Areas of showers and thunderstorms (a few strong to severe possible) as a cold front moves through tonight.
Currently - A ridge extending along the Gulf coast and up along the Atlantic coast is responsible for gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the area. A ridge stretching along the gulf and Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
We should see precipitation increase in coverage after 10 PM, as the low level jet and associated warm air advection increase across the area. In addition, we're starting to see thunderstorms develop along the cold front well to our west. Showers rising northeastward ahead of the main trough and cold front well to our west. Should be a mild night with the higher dew points/clouds/southerly winds keeping temps from dropping off too much. As front approaches the areas later tonight into Wednesday morning and the DCVA associated with the approaching mid level trough, we will see additional chances of shra/tsra in one or more lines.
Drier and warmer weather is expected for the rest of this week, before a return to cool and unsettled weather over the weekend. Weak wind in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the past several days has allowed limited moisture to remain over the area today. Arizona will be between a cut off low off the San Diego Coast and a large trough of low pressure over the Central States. This will allow weak high pressure to form over our state. The lower levels winds will become more northeasterly on Wednesday which will aid in a slow drying trend.
Strong and gusty northwest winds will redevelop during the day on Wednesday, as another cold front crosses the region. At the surface, a strong cold front has just moved through the forecast area, and strong pressure rises 3-4 mb/3 hr have brought windy conditions into the region. A secondary cold front will moves through the region Wednesday, bringing another round of strong winds.
205 PM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening across the region as an area of low pressure rotates off the coast.
The upper-level low pressure system will persist to our south later this week into the weekend and could bring renewed chances for precipitation this weekend in our southern areas, though mainly in the mountains and desert. Closed upper low pressure center off the SOCAL coast is providing enough lift for some storms across the Kern county mountains today. Ensemble guidance is advertising the upper low center to wobble around off the SOCAL coast this week with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms across the Kern county mountains.
JKL A few showers popped up this afternoon over central parts of the area due to vorticity in the upper trough moving through the area. Another lobe of vorticity will swing S tonight in the western edge of the trough, accompanied by some frontogenesis, and a small chance of showers.
506 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The nose of a 120 kt 250 mb jet on the western periphery of a deepening trough across the northern Plains continues to punch into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Associated with this wave is a strong surface cold front that is now beginning to move through the northern third of the CWA.
High pressure dominates for the remainder of the week and through the weekend delivering dry and mild conditions accompanied by light winds.
Focus then turns to an approaching cold front, which currently stretches from central NE down into NW KS. Lacy (Wednesday through Tuesday) The potential for showers and storms will persist through Wednesday morning as the cold front moves swiftly across the area. Behind the cold front, fire weather concerns will ramp up as dry air surges into the region.
A high amplitude pattern wit a deep trough downstream across most of the US, with a strong ridge near the west coast.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken overnight as an upper ridge builds in from the coast. This will translate to lighter surface winds on Wednesday and slightly warmer temperatures. Skies will continue to be hazy due to smoke, though lighter winds around the high pressure aloft will slow the transport of smoke.
1120 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The nose of a 120 kt 250 mb jet on the western periphery of a deepening trough across the northern Plains continues to punch into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Associated with this wave is a strong surface cold front that is now beginning to move through the northern third of the CWA.
An upper level ridge and weak pressure gradient will continue to promote light winds, highs several degrees above average into the 70's, and clear skies over the next several days.
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected most of the day as high pressure moves east.
1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The main focus of the short term period will be on a weak cold front moving into the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. The main upper level feature to focus on will be the deep, longwave trough moving from the Canadian Prairies into the northern U. Plains as its associated cold front will be the one moving into south central TX later in the day tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon should be mostly clear, warm, and dry with highs much above average in the upper 80s to mid and possibly upper 90s in some of the warmer locations.
The cooler than normal temperatures along with the lingering cloud cover, fire weather concerns do not necessitate an highlight.
147 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Upper trough will be to the east of the forecast area today. High pressure moves in tonight diminishing the winds.
Expect these to dissipate by sunrise, leaving most of the Mid-South dry with temperatures in the low 60s. Later today, an upper level trough will continue to move southeast over the Ozarks Region, pushing a cold front into the Mid-South by the afternoon and evening hours. By midnight, showers and storms should push out of the region, leaving behind drier air and cooler temperatures.
230 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure moving off the eastern seaboard will bring an increasingly southerly flow late tonight and Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) A deep upper trough moving out of Canada and into the northern Plains and upper Midwest will send a cold front south into our area today. Further to the north and west, temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. Skies will remain mostly clear and lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
854 PM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Low pressure will remain offshore this week, and then move inland over the weekend.
330 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Discussion/Marine - Showers and Strong Winds Today Ahead of Cold Front - On and off warm advection showers will persist this morning into the early afternoon. With afternoon mixing tapping into this reserve of winds, gusts on the order of 35 to 45 mph will be possible ahead of the arrival of the cold front. By around 2pm the cold frontal showers should arrive in the Ludington area, then down towards Jackson by 7pm.
1119 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A cold front is currently pushing south across Wyoming, mainly east of the Divide. To the East of WY a deep trough will continue to dig down across the eastern US, while to the West a high pressure ridge will begin to settle in.
(Today) A cold frontal boundary will begin to move into northeastern Oklahoma over the next several hours and continue to move quickly across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by this afternoon. Bowlan (Tonight through Tuesday) Following the front tonight, cooler and drier air will settle over the region as lows range from near 40 to the upper 40s.
948 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to end as the cold front has made it through the majority of the forecast area allowing RH values to rise well above critical criteria.
(Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows a trough moving across the northern Plains pushing a cold front toward the area. At the surface, 2 AM West Texas Mesonet and Oklahoma Mesonet observations show the cold front positioned from Nara Visa, NM to Sanford, TX to Wolf Creek Park, TX to Slapout, OK. With the upper trough being well to our north, the speed of the cold front, and how dry the atmosphere is, precipitation chances are near zero. Today will be slightly cooler than we have seen in previous days, with highs mainly in the low-70s on the Caprock and nearing 80F off the Caprock.
Drier and warmer weather is expected across northern Arizona for the remainder of the work week, before a return to cool and unsettled weather for the weekend. Even though colder overnight low temperatures are forecast for the next few days, most locations will remain a few degrees above average for this time of year, including the Flagstaff Airport, where it has yet to reach the freezing mark this season.
1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) High pressure continues to push east, leading to the return of onshore flow for Southeast Texas. Also with the earlier timing of the FROPA, cold air advection behind the front has more time to cool off our temperatures, so I nudged overnight lows down a few degrees on Wednesday night with lows reaching the low to mid 60s north of Conroe and the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
Easterly flow aloft will keep the ridges warm tonight with poor to moderate humidity recoveries. A strong upper level ridge will remain just offshore as a rex block develops along the west coast tonight into Wednesday. Dry weather with warm afternoons and cool mornings will continue, along with the easterly winds over the ridges in the overnight hours, bringing warmer temperatures and poorer humidity recoveries to those areas.
Another warm and humid night is in progress along the Florida Keys, with temperatures hovering in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s, along with east breezes of 10 to 15 mph. Our region remains along the southern side of the subtropical ridge from the surface up into the mid levels, with easterly flow prevailing below 600 mb. From tonight through the end of the work week, a deep mid- latitude trough will develop over the eastern CONUS, with a surface cold front moving through the Southeastern states and down the Florida peninsula. This trough will entrain some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Karl over the Bay of Campeche, transporting this moisture eastward into our region ahead of the southward moving front, as falling heights due to the encroaching trough promote large-scale lift.
358 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Current sfc analysis depicts a cold front draped over the central US from MN to KS. WV analysis showers the upper level trough axis over central SD. The secondary cold front moves through the region today with 3-4 mb/3hr pressure rises behind the front.
404 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A strong upper level trough and frontal boundary will push across the central US today bringing cooler temperatures and some strong winds to the area. As the trough digs south and the pressure gradient tightens, strong surface winds will develop. In addition to the trough. This trough also will bring some cooler temperatures to the region for today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will depend greatly on the frontal passage, with highs across the north (in the mid to upper 50s) being nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the highs across areas south of I-80 (low to mid 70s). Winds increase once again on Thursday as the upper trough remains situated over the central US.
KDDC radar observations as of 0530Z show a cold front rapidly moving through southwest KS ahead of an upper level trough that has dug well into the northern and central plains, with very strong north winds in its wake. A few showers and thunderstorms have also developed along the advancing cold front, but these have all been very small and transient, and pose no severe threat. During the day Wednesday, winds will increase modestly mainly for the northern half of the DDC CWA as a secondary push of cold air filters into southwest KS ahead of another upper level vorticity max digging south and reinforcing the main trough.
927 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Summary: A long wave trough slowly moving through the region bringing a mix of precipitation types for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
527 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure will drift slowly off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push through the region Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the work week.
Ridging overhead will amplify a bit over the next several days in advance of an upper low off soCal coast. Warmer high temperatures next several days with readings in the lower 90s across the low deserts.
501 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Additional rainfall is anticipated today as a cold front pushes across central Illinois.
624 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows a trough moving across the northern Plains pushing a cold front toward the area. At the surface, 2 AM West Texas Mesonet and Oklahoma Mesonet observations show the cold front positioned from Nara Visa, NM to Sanford, TX to Wolf Creek Park, TX to Slapout, OK. With the upper trough being well to our north, the speed of the cold front, and how dry the atmosphere is, precipitation chances are near zero. Today will be slightly cooler than we have seen in previous days, with highs mainly in the low-70s on the Caprock and nearing 80F off the Caprock.
Drier and warmer weather is expected across northern Arizona for the remainder of the work week, before a return to cool and unsettled weather for the weekend.
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today) A cold frontal boundary will begin to move into northeastern Oklahoma over the next several hours and continue to move quickly across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by this afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning shifting winds out of the north and northeast, but will not make much of a difference in high temperatures today.
520 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 The H500 hand analysis map this morning is showing a Rex block along the Pacific Coast transitioning to a deep trough over central NOAM and another ridge along the east coast. Dry Northwest flow is in place behind the trough over the Northern and Central Rockies and this will not change throughout the short term. The strong radiational cooling could bring some localized near freezing temperatures to the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys tonight. Winds over the high country should settle down just a bit with the core of stronger winds aloft shifting East with the trough expanding over much of the eastern CONUS by late tomorrow.
As for temperatures, above normal temperatures will continue in the south and west with cooler temperatures north and east. The large-scale trough will continue to deepen across the eastern US, while a blocking ridge settles across the Rockies.
747 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected most of the day as high pressure moves east. Showers return tonight through part of Thursday with a cold front.
448 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Current sfc analysis depicts a cold front draped over the central US from MN to KS. WV analysis showers the upper level trough axis over central SD. The secondary cold front moves through the region today with 3-4 mb/3hr pressure rises behind the front.
714 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure will drift slowly off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push through the region Thursday.
619 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A strong upper level trough and frontal boundary will push across the central US today bringing cooler temperatures and some strong winds to the area. As the trough digs south and the pressure gradient tightens, strong surface winds will develop. In addition to the trough. This trough also will bring some cooler temperatures to the region for today and tomorrow. Temperatures today will depend greatly on the frontal passage, with highs across the north (in the mid to upper 50s) being nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the highs across areas south of I-80 (low to mid 70s). Winds increase once again on Thursday as the upper trough remains situated over the central US.
404 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 The H500 hand analysis map this morning is showing a Rex block along the Pacific Coast transitioning to a deep trough over central NOAM and another ridge along the east coast. Dry Northwest flow is in place behind the trough over the Northern and Central Rockies and this will not change throughout the short term. The strong radiational cooling could bring some localized near freezing temperatures to the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys tonight. Winds over the high country should settle down just a bit with the core of stronger winds aloft shifting East with the trough expanding over much of the eastern CONUS by late tomorrow.
Axis of an upper-level ridge remains centered just offshore, making for a benign weather pattern for the rest of the week into the next.
A large closed low centered near the Great Lakes region and the smaller closed low off the coast of California are interacting with a high pressure system situated off the Oregon coast, bringing a progressively drier northwest flow aloft. Winds will be mostly light except for the higher elevations. Area of concern will be during the early morning hours in the San Luis Valley as temps in the mid 20s in the lower 2/3 of the Valley will necessitate a Hard Freeze Warning, and temps in the upper 20s in the upper 1/3 of the valley will bring a Freeze Warning.
704 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Summary: A long wave trough slowly moving through the region bringing a mix of precipitation types for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
High pressure dominates for the remainder of the week and through the weekend delivering dry and mild conditions and mostly light winds.
438 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Additional rainfall is anticipated today as a cold front pushes across central Illinois.
642 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure will drift slowly off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push through the region Thursday.
A weak low pressure system will drift over the southern California coastal waters for much of the week, while the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin see mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. By the weekend, the low is forecast to move inland, bringing rain chances back to portions of the Mojave Desert. Dry conditions are expected through the end of the week as high pressure strengthens across the area.
732 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Aviation - Showers and Strong Winds Today Ahead of Cold Front - On and off warm advection showers will persist this morning into the early afternoon. With afternoon mixing tapping into this reserve of winds, gusts on the order of 35 to 45 mph will be possible ahead of the arrival of the cold front. By around 2pm the cold frontal showers should arrive in the Ludington area, then down towards Jackson by 7pm. - Cooler with Persistent Showers - A secondary cold front is expected Thursday as a deeper upper low takes root over the northern Great Lakes region. Several mid-level short wave lobes will support reinforcing pushes of cold air over the warmer Lake Michigan waters.
As of early this morning, a line/cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms over northwest Missouri into northeast Kansas continues to move southeastward along/behind a surface cold front. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region, with temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler as a highly amplified upper trough meanders around the Great Lakes, providing dry/cool northwest flow for our region.
655 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows a trough moving across the northern Plains pushing a cold front toward the area. At the surface, 2 AM West Texas Mesonet and Oklahoma Mesonet observations show the cold front positioned from Nara Visa, NM to Sanford, TX to Wolf Creek Park, TX to Slapout, OK. With the upper trough being well to our north, the speed of the cold front, and how dry the atmosphere is, precipitation chances are near zero. Today will be slightly cooler than we have seen in previous days, with highs mainly in the low-70s on the Caprock and nearing 80F off the Caprock.
An upper level low will sit over SoCal with a ridge of high pressure to our north over the PacNW.
636 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 (Today and tonight) A deep upper trough moving out of Canada and into the northern Plains and upper Midwest will send a cold front south into our area today. Further to the north and west, temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. Skies will remain mostly clear and lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
941 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 High pressure will drift slowly off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push through the region Thursday.
A cold front is still expected to move through the area of Thursday with continued cloudy skies and numerous to widespread showers and storms expected. A cold front approaches the area from the west early Thursday bringing the potential for some lower CIGs and VSBY restrictions in SHRA/TSRA all day on Thursday. Broad high pressure off the mid-Atlantic states ridges across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift farther to the southeast by Thursday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
536 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected most of the day as high pressure moves east. Showers return tonight through part of Thursday with a cold front.
Today: The Start of a Pattern Change As of 3 am, a well-advertised cold front is pushing into southeastern Minnesota and steadily plows through the region before mid-morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expand in coverage along and ahead of the front and then clear from west to east with passage of the lower tropospheric front. Given the high surface dewpoint depressions and inverted-V soundings, the main impacts from the showers may come in the form of enhanced wind gusts as evaporative cooling accelerates parcels towards the surface.
435 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Summary: A long wave trough slowly moving through the region bringing a mix of precipitation types for the remainder of the week into the weekend.