Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
846 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 Dry stable conditions courtesy of high pressure along the northern Gulf coast is supporting cool dry weather across the entire forecast area early this morning. Chilly temperatures in the 40s and 50s will climb into the lower to mid 60s by mid to late morning under sunny skies, with cool air advection only supporting temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon. High pressure along the northern Gulf coast will support north to northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb heights highlight trough over the eastern U. with a ridge from British Columbia/Alberta toward Idaho/Nevada/Utah. A 120-130kt jet is topping the ridge and nosing into the area. Farther west, the radar has more of a showery look versus snow and the precipitation is more in the form of sprinkles in the warmer air. For now, the precipitation/lift has mostly ended by the time the warmer air moves in. Increasing southwest flow aloft will usher in warmer 850mb temperatures with the 0 degree line reaching Clark Co by 12Z Tuesday.
so we may be able to cancel some of the High Wind Warnings early.
Dry air in the lower levels and little lift has kept this band disorganized. The lower levels will saturate a bit as the morning progresses, but steadier light snow showers will be brief and transient so no accumulation is expected. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of a strong low pressure center in southern Alberta will lead to winds increasing markedly aloft late tonight and Tuesday. Thermal ridging will lift into southern Minnesota, but clouds and snow pack north of I-94 will temper any significant warming with northward extent. Highs could also rise into the lower 60s.
620 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 Aviation --Quieter Pattern Moving In-- Upper trough lifts out today with flatter/more zonal flow aloft to follow for a couple days. Next trough and more amplified pattern approaches toward mid week, bringing a brief period of mild air and rain showers followed by another cool down. Can't rule out some patches of black ice this morning with temps near freezing and moisture from recent snow/rain still leftover on the roads. Expect considerable stratus/stratocumulus clouds to blanket the region today with -8C H8 thermal trough overhead and continued flow off the lake. --Brief Period of Warmer Air and Rain Showers Midweek-- Warm advection commences on Tuesday and is initially a dry pattern with sfc winds increasing out of the southeast.
Temperatures tonight into early Tuesday will also be warmer with lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
457 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure along with cooler air will remain over the region through Tuesday with frost possible tonight.
The pattern aloft will begin to steadily flatten out over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While at the surface, high pressure sliding east of the CWA will result in increasingly southerly flow. This will all yield increasingly warmer conditions across the forecast area today into tonight, as quiet weather persists across the region. However, another low moving into the Pacific NW will dig out a trough over the western half of the CONUS, shifting the flow to more southwesterly.
Forecast Highlights: - Near record heat expected Tuesday - Powerful cold front Tuesday night - Occasional breezy winds expected Mild conditions this morning compared to the past few thanks to significant cloud cover at 10000 feet. Temps are generally in the low 40s as of 3AM/09Z and not more than 10-15 degrees removed from the afternoon's seasonal high temperatures. The thermal ridge slides east quickly in the progressive flow on Tuesday ahead of a low traversing our northern international border. Recently set record highs may fall Tuesday: Omaha 73F - 2016 Norfolk 76F - 2016 Lincoln 80F - 2016 A cold front tied to that powerful low working along the Canadian border sweeps through on Tuesday night, bringing another round of shutter shaking winds and strong cold air advection.
Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal today with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90. A gradual cooling trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure is displaced by a series of weather systems passing to the north.
906 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 The dense cirrus layer that overspread much of east central Florida yesterday held on across the Treasure Coast overnight and this morning, and kept temperatures a little "warmer" there (generally low 50s). Some mesonet sites across northern Lake and northwest Volusia even reached the low 40s just prior to sunrise. Afternoon highs expected to reach the 71-74 degree range for most, except a degree or two cooler toward the Volusia coast.
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 416 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico today will move farther eastward tonight and Tuesday.
952 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure will dominate today with sunny skies. Another cool night will be in store for us, as clear skies lead to temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday morning lows will generally be a few degrees warmer than this morning's lows -- in the upper 30s to lower 40s -- given the slight uptick in moisture and absence of CAA. Highs will be noticeably warmer than those today -- in the upper 60s to mid-70s (excluding the cooler mountainous terrain of northeast GA). At the start of the period high pressure covers the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico today will move farther eastward tonight and Tuesday.
Dewpoints later this morning could reach the lower 50s. For tonight through Tuesday night, fresh to strong northeast to east breezes will peak and lull as a high pressure system strengthens across the Southeast US and the western North Atlantic.
/issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/ Low amplitude ridging will move across the Rockies into the Plains today. As this occurs, the next sharp short wave trough will move onshore from the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. As a result, surface lee troughing will develop in eastern New Mexico. This pressure trough is not expected to be strong, so surface winds will be relatively light today.
229 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 Warm front has stalled out to the west of us this morning. Warm front should begin advancing again during the late morning hours and temperatures will climb well above seasonal averages across the area by afternoon. Eyes turn to Tuesday next as a strong cold front moves through the area.
Until then, could still see a mix of pcpn types over the CWA, but especially over the northeast corner of the CWA where sfc temps remain below freezing. For the rest of today and Tuesday a ridge aloft will build across the region ahead of the next system that is slated to track across southern Canada. A cold front advancing across the state will provide for increased mixing across the forecast area in the afternoon, but also will lead to an initial surge of CAA. Still it appears the model blend is probably a bit too cool and therefore will maintain warmer temperatures for highs.
With passage of the warm front, winds will veer to the south to southwest, ushering in decent low level WAA. Despite southerly flow in the low levels, moisture will remain limited, but could see a few sprinkles out of a mid cloud deck that develops north of the warm front today. Highs will range from the low 50s in the far eastern portions of the forecast area to mid 60s over central Missouri. A majority of the deterministic models are even warmer at 850mb on Tuesday, so later forecast updates may need to raise temperatures even more. Byrd Pattern change is in store for the region, as the upper level ridge begins to slide off to the east beginning Tuesday night.
A deep, fast moving trough and cold front are digging into the Pacific Northwest today. But tonight, the cold front will arrive with a blast of wind. With the passage of the cold front, snow levels will fall quickly overnight with showers continuing behind the front. Tuesday, the winds will continue, though at lower speeds, but with cooler temperatures and showers. Several areas have wind advisories or warnings for the frontal passage tonight since that will be the main threat for adverse impacts, but Tuesday the threat will change to a combination of winds, snow, and cooler temperatures. For the mid-week, a ridge builds in with a cooler air mass established over the region. A deep, fast moving trough digging into the Pacific Northwest will cause southerly winds to increase today ahead of the associated cold front.
Cold front has worked its way through the area, and temps will be a little cooler today as a result.
With mostly sunny skies across SE TX this afternoon, forecast highs are going warm into the lower 80s. Persistent S/SE winds and mostly clear skies will help to warm things a bit more for tomorrow/tomorrow night: highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low- er to mid 60s.
628 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Chilly high pressure will follow and build over the region today and tonight, then shift offshore Tuesday.
We continue to focus on a vigorous cold front approaching from the west as the main feature in the short term. Main concern will be winds, which should pick up in earnest just ahead of the cold front late tonight. Upper Snake Plain looks like it will see the highest wind speeds, and may be borderline warning as GFS MOS indicates for Idaho Falls and Rexburg. The cold front and associated upper trough will push through rather quickly, and will limit snow accumulation.
635 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure along with cooler air will remain over the region through Tuesday with frost possible tonight.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and again tomorrow into the lower to mid 80s, potentially breaking some local records for this time of year.
A potent mid-level trough will drag a cold front across the region starting in the west early Tuesday, and into the Upper Mississippi by late Tuesday night.
High pressure holding over the desert southwest will keep unseasonably warm temperatures with near daily records today. One more day of near record warmth is in store for much of the region this afternoon as high pressure remains in place. Temperatures will begin to moderate Tuesday as the ridge weakens allowing readings to cool, but still remain slightly above seasonable norms.
240 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure will build back across the area tonight through the middle part of the week.
Sunny skies will continue with afternoon highs expected to range from around 70 degrees to the lower 70s over most places, except for readings in the upper 60s across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL.
1230 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
(This Tonight) Warm and breezy this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s in many areas under mostly sunny skies.
147 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Cyclonic flow is gradually losing its grip over the region as a broad mid-level ridge over the nation's mid-section creeps eastward. Height rises and subsidence will continue aloft as the ridge slowly builds overhead, but isentropic lift will ramp up later ahead of a warm front moving into western Iowa. The warm front will lift towards our area on Tuesday. Winds of 50-60 knots at 850mb associated with a strong low level jet will slide overhead midday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely across much of the area, strongest in the higher elevation, wind-prone areas west of the Mississippi River and north-central WI. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night.
Today, across the region, should bring partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. At one point it appeared that the precipitation that fell would be either a mixed precip or freezing rain. With the shallow depth of the moisture and cold surface temperatures, precipitation could initially fall as freezing drizzle. Additionally, this will provide northwest/west flow aloft for the Northland giving several chances of precipitation as upper level disturbances circulate around the low pressure system.
Wind gusts up to 90 MPH may be possible over the higher terrain in the northern Laramie Range. Critical fire conditions persist for the high plains.
After multiple days of high pressure conditions, a series of dry troughs will impact the region this week resulting in lower high temperatures and periods of breezy southwest winds. Another quiet weather day out there this afternoon across northern and central Arizona as high pressure remains. Average overnight lows are forecast for tonight as areas downslope on the east-northeast side of higher terrain will likely be a tad warmer thanks to southwest breezes.
250 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 The warming trend will continue through Tuesday night as the upper level ridge centered over the Rockies shifts eastward to the central US on Tuesday.
Temperatures this afternoon range from the lower 70s to upper 70s with KSHV, KGGG, and KTYR reaching the 80 degree mark.
The lingering sfc trof axis, very warm highs west of the trof and pleasant highs east of it. We will see increasing mid to high level clouds by afternoon to evening as a UL trof drops down from the northwest.
253 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure builds in from the southwest tonight.
From synopsis, high pressure centered over the Mississippi River Valley will slide eastward and strengthen across the Southeast United States this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain well above normal this afternoon, with a few locations possibly tying record high values, as a broad high pressure ridge remains in place. Readings will begin to moderate Tuesday as the ridge weakens and a trough moving through the Pacific Northwest swings a dry cold front across the Great Basin. Winds out ahead of the front should not be of a concern with only the higher areas of the Sierra crest experiencing a few gusts over 30mph this afternoon and westerly gusts of 20-25mph tomorrow afternoon across San Bernardino county and Northwest Arizona.
The inherited near term grids remain on track this morning, with dry northwest flow aloft in the wake of a departing longwave trough expected to provide another beautiful autumn day for the TN Valley. Short-amplitude troughing that extended southward across the eastern lower-48 will advance eastward and move off of the east coast. Upper ridging should build over the central CONUS during Mon/Tue, preceding another storm system that should develop over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Tue/Wed.
A high pressure center is established over the Deep South and resulting in stable, mostly clear conditions with some streams of high level cirrus. The ridge will shift eastward over the next 24 hours, and a warming trend will follow as flow aloft becomes zonal with southwesterly surface winds.
/issued 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/ A broad trough remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS with a flat ridge over the Desert Southwest.
1022 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 A broad trough remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS with a flat ridge over the Desert Southwest.
1138 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure along with cooler air will remain over the region through Tuesday with patchy frost possible tonight.
As the high pressure shifts east, the low level winds will become more southeasterly across the region, beginning to increase the moisture across the CWA. Highs will warm on Tuesday into the low to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer then today, particularly across the northern portion of the CWA.
230 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure over north Florida this afternoon will shift east into the Atlantic through mid week as it extends back to the southwest across north Florida and the southeastern states with pleasant dry weather and warming temperatures expected as the low level flow veers from northeast to east.
Previous discussion: Warm front has stalled out to the west of us this morning. Warm front should begin advancing again during the late morning hours and temperatures will climb well above seasonal averages across the area by afternoon. Eyes turn to Tuesday next as a strong cold front moves through the area.
(This evening through Tuesday) Increasing mid-level heights from an approaching ridge will foster warmer overnight lows this evening in the upper 40s to low 50s across the state.
/issued 846 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021/ Dry stable conditions courtesy of high pressure along the northern Gulf coast is supporting cool dry weather across the entire forecast area early this morning. Chilly temperatures in the 40s and 50s will climb into the lower to mid 60s by mid to late morning under sunny skies, with cool air advection only supporting temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon. High pressure along the northern Gulf coast will support north to northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
The low level jet will increase overnight with 5 kt surface winds. This will lead to a period of low level wind shear of 30-40 kts in the lowest 2000 ft. The low level jet will increase low level moisture and likely MVFR cigs.
Composite water vapor imagery shows an amplified pattern across the CONUS, with a departing longwave trough in the Northeast and an expansive (and strengthening) anticyclone over the Mississippi Valley. Cold and dry air advection has been quite impressive today, with temperatures barely getting into the lower 70s this afternoon and dewpoints suppressed in the mid to upper 50s. With ridging firmly in place over the Florida Peninsula, near- nil rain chances are expected through Tuesday.
Strong ridgetop winds with gusts near 55 mph are likely across the central mountains overnight. For the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and the rest of the highlands, very light rain and snow is expected. We could see a couple of inches on the highest peaks of the Big Holes and Bear River Range.
This will promote warmer temperatures and and poleward moisture flux ahead of the approaching trough. Guidance indicates the potential for a 4-6 kft cloud deck developing tonight into Tuesday and the above factors point to much warmer overnight lows.
As low pressure begins to develop across the Plains, breezy southeast winds will persist this afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 416 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico today will move farther eastward tonight and Tuesday.
129 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 A gradual cooling trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure is displaced by a series of weather systems passing to the north, but temperatures will remain several degrees above normal for most of the week.
Dry and warmer weather is then expected through mid week under high pressure.
240 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Temperatures are on the rise as a warm front lifts northeastward through the region. Where the front has passed across southeast MO, temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s.
Lingering clouds over northeastern portions of the Mid State have kept those spots cooler, in the mid and upper 40s. Ridging will build in across the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.
310 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 An upper level trough will exit the region to the east tonight.
258 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 (Issued 257 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: The weak wave that brought a few flurries to portions of the area will move east and be replaced by high pressure this evening. Winds become light and with dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s and some clearing forecast think temps will bottom out in the lower 20s close to dewpoint values. Highs should end up 10 to 15 degrees warmer tomorrow with values in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
This high will shift E into GA and the S Appalachians this afternoon with a return flow and warm air advection gradually developing. This will lead to a pleasant afternoon with lots of sunshine, but some high cirrus will stream down from the NW at times due to mid level moisture advection and associated isentropic ascent to the W/NW of the region as the developing warm air advection runs into the backside of the eastern CONUS longwave trough. Dry and cool conditions for the short term period Discussion: Heights will begin to rise as the upper trough over the eastern US lifts northeast.
1251 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 Aviation --Quieter Pattern Moving In-- Upper trough lifts out today with flatter/more zonal flow aloft to follow for a couple days. Next trough and more amplified pattern approaches toward mid week, bringing a brief period of mild air and rain showers followed by another cool down. Can't rule out some patches of black ice this morning with temps near freezing and moisture from recent snow/rain still leftover on the roads. Expect considerable stratus/stratocumulus clouds to blanket the region today with -8C H8 thermal trough overhead and continued flow off the lake. --Brief Period of Warmer Air and Rain Showers Midweek-- Warm advection commences on Tuesday and is initially a dry pattern with sfc winds increasing out of the southeast.
High pressure will deliver mild temperatures today. Starting Tuesday, the first in a series of dry troughs will lower high temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees more towards normal and produce breezy southwest winds. No changes made to the forecast this morning with high pressure in place. Southwest winds pick up on Tuesday with cooler temperatures expected as a dry cold front pushes through the region from the northwest. Northwesterly flow aloft under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure over southern California will back to westerly today. Maximized heights from the aforementioned ridge will bring one last day of seasonably very warm temperatures to the region again today. A trough will dig southward and tighten the lower-level gradient overnight tonight. Kept some of these populated downslope areas slightly warmer for early Tuesday morning lows with this overnight mixing likely.
1214 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 [Through 18Z Tuesday] High pressure will prevail across the region today allowing for VFR conditions through the TAF period. Another cool night will be in store for us, as clear skies lead to temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
225 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 Strong low pressure system descending from the Canadian Rockies has already brought VERY strong/severe winds to the front range areas of western Montana.
Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with a strong cold frontal boundary passing through the region Tuesday. A potent mid-level trough will drag a cold front across the region starting in the west early Tuesday, and into the Upper Mississippi by late Tuesday night.
804 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure has settled in over the southeast U. and will help filter in some cooler and drier air for one more night. High pressure moves off the Carolina coastline by Tuesday producing a more east-northeast flow and warming trend bringing temperatures closer to average for the remainder of the week. High pressure builds in over the southeast U.
727 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Variable cloud cover is expected tonight and Tuesday as a warm front slowly drifts northward.
530 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 (This Tonight) Warm and breezy this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s in many areas under mostly sunny skies.