Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
329 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper trough is crossing Montana and Alberta, with southwest flow continuing across the northern Plains. With the cold front having passed through late last night, cooler temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Return flow quickly returns tonight as the high pressure moves off to the east.
Temperatures this morning have risen into the low to mid 70s and will continue to rise into the lower 80s. An upper low centered to our northeast across eastern TN will remain nearly stationary today. The main story will be how pleasant it feels given the cooler temperatures and mainly dry weather expected.
Cooler and drier air will move into western and most of central ND today. Another upper level low will move onto the Pacific Northwest coast by early Tuesday. Upper level ridging today and tonight will produce dry conditions. The cold front that moves into easter ND today, stalls tonight and lifts back north through the forecast area as a warm front on Tuesday, in response to the digging upper trough and surface cyclogenesis that takes shape over the Mondak region Tuesday.
Clear and calm weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with 07z temperatures in the lower 60s. An upper low currently centered across eastern Kentucky will drop south into Georgia today, bringing a secondary dry cold front through the area. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air into the region and help to keep temperatures about 8-10 degrees lower than yesterday (with most locations peaking in the lower 80s). The main story will be how pleasant it feels given the cooler temperatures and mainly dry weather expected.
/Issued 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ An upper ridge will remain over the area for the next several days, resulting in a continuation of hot afternoon temperatures.
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Outside of a few lingering isolated showers today, mostly dry weather is expected into midweek as high pressure takes control. An upper low, currently near Huntington WV, will continue to drift southward today and cross the Tennessee Valley. The rest of the shower activity remains tied to the circulation around the upper low. Any such activity will end by sunset in the face of developing high pressure.
645 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Very persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will become established across the eastern US in the near term, with a closed low drifting across the southeast states and a strong ridge building to the west and north of this closed low. High pressure surface and aloft will support more dry weather for the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. After the cool start this morning, highs will reach the lower 70s in most areas.
646 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure building into the North Country this morning will dominate the regions weather through the work week with no precipitation and moderating temperatures expected.
Finally, looked for areas where the daytime high temperature could be bumped up a couple of degrees into the low 90s, given much of the eastern half of the forecast area will be situated in the same kind of airmass that was in play yesterday out ahead of the passing front.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ After a few mild afternoons the next few days we could see chances for rain begin to increase finally! Mid level ridging remains in place to start the week and will continue to suppress convection and even clouds across the area.
1036 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure building into the North Country this morning will dominate the regions weather through the work week with no precipitation and moderating temperatures expected.
Warmer temperatures, lower humidity and breezy north winds will bring elevated fire weather concerns during mid-week. Current temperatures are considerably milder compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the lower 40s in the mountain valleys to the 60s to lower 70s across the Central Valley and foothill thermal belts. Clouds and gusty southwest winds will increase across the region today as upper trough approaches NorCal and pushes a mostly dry cold front southward into far northern California. Moisture is pretty limited, but a few light showers will be possible across the higher peaks of the northern Coast Range and across the extreme southern Cascade Range.
1023 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block becoming established across the eastern US in the near term, with a closed low drifting across the southeast states and a strong ridge building to the west and north of this closed low. High pressure surface and aloft will support more dry weather for the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. Highs will reach the lower 70s in most areas.
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Latest surface analysis showed a cold front from South Carolina to central Alabama to northeast Arkansas. A ridge axis was located over Texas to Wisconsin.
Dry high pressure anchored over the region will maintain VFR. High pressure to the northeast has become established across most of the central and southern US this morning. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s and the heat indices mainly in the mid with some upper 90s at times. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the central CONUS as a trough located over the Ohio Valley amplifies down into the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will persist for the southern Plains and even build over the northern Gulf coast today. Meanwhile a cold front exiting the Tennessee Valley traverses Alabama and Mississippi tonight, eventually stalling along the coast on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be slightly cooler behind the front, ranging from 84 to 90 degrees.
642 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The hot and dry weather pattern will continue for Kansas this period, as stout upper level ridging remains intact over the region. Models trends are in good agreement with a pattern change breaking down the upper level ridge axis, and a transition to west to east zonal flow regime setting up across central/northern plains.
Broad trough energy pushing into the Pacific NW today leading to warmer southwesterly flow over northern and central NV with high temperatures this afternoon near 80 degrees in most valley locations. Winds also increase and become gusty at times this afternoon as a cold front passes through the region.
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 (Today through Tuesday) Transient mid-high level cloud cover will increase by late in the day as mid/upper tropical moisture slowly spreads north between the longwave trough to our west and southeast U. Along with the modest moisture increase, slightly cooler mid (H7) temps will also spread north over the region.
High pressure passes through the area, with only a few passing clouds and temperatures generally in the neighborhood of seasonal norms.
The highly advertised warmup is still on track to ensue tomorrow as the mid-level ridge builds.
A low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area this weekend. 1034 mb center over southern Quebec with extruded ridge into southwest portion of the Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, however, mid level channeled vorticity within mid-stream of Smokies cyclone. For tomorrow continued ridging surface/aloft to present with strong diurnal rise as airmass continues to moderate. Expect temperatures on order of two categories warmer. Plains to northern Upper Great Lakes mid level ridge to fully rex southeast CONUS cyclone.
354 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Quiet weather will persist through the end of the week as longwave blocking pattern remains in place across the conus with troughing over the west and ridging over the east.
Tonight we will start to see return flow around the high, and the development of a lee side trough in Montana. During the day Tuesday, a strong h850 thermal ridge will develop across western North Dakota ahead of a broad h500 trough. By the time a cold front approaches from Montana, breaking the cap should be possible. The h500 trough will continue to impact weather for the remainder of the work week as the eastern CONUS region is under the influence of a mid level blocking pattern.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): High pressure generally remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico and lower Texas coast through the short term period as a 500mb trough swings around the Carolinas. Temperatures are topping off near to slightly below normal this afternoon and expect generally a degree warmer or so tomorrow.
308 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
Tonight and Tuesday Persistent high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a building upper ridge will bring dry conditions through the period. South winds on the western periphery of the high will bring warmer temperatures into the region, with lows in the lower to middle 50s tonight, and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s (except upper 60s and lower 70s near Lake Michigan) on Tuesday.
Radar shows a few showers on the Plateau and across east Tennessee in association with an upper level low moving southward across the Appalachians, and more showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible on the Plateau the rest of the afternoon.
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 WV imagery indicates the upper ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is reorienting to SW-NE, courtesy of a series of PacNW troughs digging thru the northern Rockies. However, this looks to be the outlier, as other long range models are coming in w/considerably cooler solutions. On the upside, models weaken the ridge somewhat midweek, and accompanying height falls could open a window for some convection, mainly over the Big Bend/higher terrain, beginning Wed.
Additional activity is expected as a cold front pushes through today. The passage of a cold front will bring showers across the forecast area today, with most terminals seeing the opportunity for at least periods of MVFR to IFR conditions in rain.
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 An area of low pressure will remain just south of the Ohio Valley, offering a chance of a showers into the early evening. High pressure will then move into the region from the north, with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week. An inverted trof pivoting into ILN/s eastern counties will offer weak low level convergence. Expect mostly clear sky conditions with only some high level clouds around the northern periphery of the low. Lows to continue on the cool side in the lower and middle 50s. with high pressure remaining across the Great Lakes.
325 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper ridging/southwest flow aloft across the Central Plains will maintain a hot windy regime across our region through the middle of the workweek. Under the influence of the upper ridge and ahead of an approaching upper trough in the Pacific Northwest, we remain under the influence of a very warm summer airmass which will continue to provide us with hot daytime temperatures in the 90s with little reprieve from the heat at night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70F.
Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a upper ridge over the Central CONUS, flanked by upper troughs to the east and west. The overall large scale pattern undergoes slight changes as a upper low over the Eastern OH valley settles southeast, and upper low off the Southeast AK coast moves ashore over WA/OR. The upper ridge will become more elongated and stretch from New England through the Midwest into the Southern Plains.
/issued 1047 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ The 12Z KLCH sounding indicates temperatures throughout most of the troposphere are cooler today then they were yesterday. Dry high pressure anchored over the region will maintain VFR. High pressure to the northeast has become established across most of the central and southern US this morning. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s and the heat indices mainly in the mid with some upper 90s at times. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
315 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Tonight and Tuesday: With relatively dry air in the lower levels, warming has resulted in deep mixing with cumulus forming around 7k feet. Nevertheless, some convection has been able to break through, mainly in the convergent areas over northeast MS in proximity to the approaching cold front. This back door cold front is being driven by a weak spoke of mid level energy rotating around the, anomalously far south, cold core low near the southeast US coast. While Tuesday will be somewhat cooler than today, the main distinction with this front will be the reinforcement of the low level dry air as dewpoints fall back into the 50s.
Latest upper air maps show an upper level low centered near the Cherokee National Forecast of the Appalachian chain. Between it and an upper ridge anchored from TX to up across IA, a deeply reflective northerly flow continues. In the northerly larger scale synoptic flow around the upper low, the front eases southward and may be enough to squeeze out what little moisture there is to help initiate an isolated shower/storm through the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening before a typical summer-time diurnal decrease takes over tonight. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 60s interior with upper 60s/lower 70s along the coast.
Blocky upper flow pattern is forecast to remain in place into mid- week, with a deep upper trough over the western states, upper ridging across the western Lakes, and a cut-off upper low spinning across the southern Apalachians. Ratzer 124 AM CDT Ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidance suggests the deep troughing across the western United States will start moving eastward toward the end of the week signaling the start of a more active weather pattern. As would be expected at this time range, model guidance exhibits a fair amount of spread in the potential evolution of the upper-level trough and any associated surface features.
133 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Dry conditions and near normal temperatures can be expected into midweek with high pressure in control. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected as a closed upper low drifts south across the Tennessee Valley.
A dry airmass across our area will limit rainfall chances to isolated diurnal showers due to heating and energy rotating around mid/upper low to the north.
A few showers are roaming in the vicinity of the low, but mainly on the favorable right side of the feature. Forecast is in relatively decent shape however, did some adjustments to account for the south track of the low and kicked up pops a bit across Northeast Tennessee. With further surface heating, some convection will develop under the unseasonable cool air aloft associated with the upper low. The temperature forecast looks on track with some decent warming expected under mostly sunny skies across Southeast Tennessee while a cooler afternoon is expected farther north and east across the forecast area. Isolated showers and a couple thunderstorms roaming around East Tennessee this afternoon as an upper low drifts south toward the Southern Atlantic states.
While most areas will remain dry, an upper low will dive southward into the Carolinas this afternoon. On Tuesday, the upper low will remain over the Carolinas.
A stagnant synoptic weather pattern persists through the first half of the week with a highly amplified longwave ridge splitting the CONUS in two between a cutoff low to the east and a quasi- stationary mean longwave along the west coast. Persistent lee troughing along the east flank of the Front Range is leading to continued broad southerly fetch off a Southern Plains partially- modified Gulf airmass. The upper tropospheric ridge de-amplifies slightly for Tuesday with a corresponding 1-2 degree drop in the mean H925-H700 temperature field. Elsewhere across the forecast area, expect similar conditions to today with highs in the low to mid-90s and southerly winds of 10 to 20 kts.
1047 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The 12Z KLCH sounding indicates temperatures throughout most of the troposphere are cooler today then they were yesterday. Dry high pressure anchored over the region will maintain VFR. High pressure to the northeast has become established across most of the central and southern US this morning. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s and the heat indices mainly in the mid with some upper 90s at times. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
By Tuesday evening, a cold upper level low will approach southern Lemhi County, ID, and precipitation will increase in intensity and coverage.
433 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. Persistent high pressure leading to continued dry conditions with seasonal temperatures. High pressure remaining in place though becoming more centered east of the area, allowing for warmer and slightly more humid air to move in.
Dry air has been noticeable across our area this afternoon, keeping mostly clear skies with dew points dropping into the low/mid 60s along and north of I-4.
336 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper closed low centered over the Southern Appalachians will continue to drift southeast toward the Atlantic Coast during the short term.
221 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Clouds have thinned out over much of the Tennessee Valley today thanks to daytime heating, yielding temperatures that will top out in the low 80s. A nearly-stationary upper level low centered over the Carolinas may provide forcing for some patchy thunderstorms this afternoon in far northeastern AL, but the majority of the area should remain mostly dry. Thanks to the continued influence of an upper level low parked over the Carolinas, the Tennessee Valley will remain under a pattern of relatively mild northeasterly flow. As a result, high temperatures will fall below average in the low-to-mid 80s.
225 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
Latest upper air maps show an upper level low centered near the Cherokee National Forecast of the Appalachian chain. Between it and an upper ridge anchored from TX to up across Iowa, a deeply reflective northerly flow and darkening (dry air) was noted in water vapor satellite imagery over the central Gulf coast. In the larger synoptic-scale flow around the upper low, the front eases southward and may be enough to squeeze out what little moisture there is for to help initiate an isolated shower/storm through the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening before a typical summer-time decrease takes over tonight. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 60s interior with upper 60s/lower 70s along the coast.
and a mid to upper level ridge builds in over the region. Dry and warmer conditions will last through the first half of the week. It would not be a surprise for a few locations to sneak into the low 90s. A blocking upper level low pressure system over southeast U. An upper level trough will slowly progress eastward through the northern Rocky Mountains and an assocaited cold front slides in from Canada.
Low pressure center in the Gulf of Alaska will swing a cold front through the region tonight with gusty winds, blowing dust and increasing clouds this afternoon. Cold core cyclone will slowly drift SE from the Gulf of Alaska into the PACNW by tomorrow morning. the associated cold front will swing through here tonight with some clouds and gusty winds starting later this afternoon.
Continued quiet with a blocking pattern remaining in place and a sharp upper level ridge axis extending from the western Great Lakes to west TX. Some cooler/drier air will backdoor it's way into the area from the east, especially later today tonight and temperatures look to be cooler over the eastern cwfa.
Tuesday, an upper level high will settle over the eastern Great Lakes in a rex block pattern over the next couple days, keeping the back end of the ridge over the Northland and driving up temperatures and moisture. Inland temperatures are expected to get as high as the high 80s and lower 90s with increasing humidity.
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather, with temperatures warming steadily through the week. Persistent high pressure leading to continued dry conditions with seasonal temperatures. High pressure remaining in place though becoming more centered east of the area, allowing for warmer and slightly more humid air to move in.
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 (Tonight and Tuesday) A minor weakness in the upper ridge will remain across the area through Tuesday. This will keep our temperatures pretty close to normal again tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s along the I-10 corridor, to the lower 90s elsewhere.
As a result, anticipate some isolated to widely scattered convection by this afternoon despite the upper level ridge axis still anchored just to our west. Clockwise flow around the center of upper ridge places much our region in a favorable spot for the development of some diurnally driven shwrs and tstms during peak afternoon heating so have expanded slight chance PoPs to include nearly all of the CWA with slightly higher chances across deep East Texas and adjacent areas in west central Louisiana along Toledo Bend Country.
1125 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper trough is crossing Montana and Alberta, with southwest flow continuing across the northern Plains. With the cold front having passed through late last night, cooler temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Return flow quickly returns tonight as the high pressure moves off to the east.
/issued 427 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Latest surface analysis showed a cold front from South Carolina to central Alabama to northeast Arkansas. A ridge axis was located over Texas to Wisconsin.
The ridging aloft has been weakening, and with the better deep layer moisture in place the troposphere will be less suppressive to convective development during the heat of the day. Raised PoPs across the board, with the higher coverage over portions of the NW AR and SE OK.
A similar day is expected on Tuesday with very little change in the placement of upper level features with the upper level ridge to our west remaining the dominant feature for our region.
The hot and dry weather pattern will continue for Kansas this period, as stout upper level ridging remains intact over the region. Models trends are in good agreement with a pattern change breaking down the upper level ridge axis, and a transition to west to east zonal flow regime setting up across central/northern plains.
122 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 [Through 18Z Tuesday] Skies have improved to VFR for all TAF sites except for SSI which will remain MVFR CIGS through most of the period in the North flow around the low pressure over the Carolinas.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s with highs Tuesday a little warmer, in the mid 80s. Afternoon surface data continued to display a ridge of high pressure from the Great Lakes into central IL. Satellite imagery showed the stagnate upper level closed low center over western NC this afternoon. This system is serving to keep the main upper level pattern from moving, with a weak upper ridge over MN to eastern KS/OK.
Tuesday, upper level ridge weakens slightly and the low level wind flow turns a little more southerly than today. High pressure remaining in/around the area in combination with lowering moisture levels (lower precipitable water values) should keep the majority of Southeast Texas dry through the end of the week.
344 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 GOES-16 satellite trends place a upper-level low pressure system over eastern North Carolina with an associated front stalled from northern Mississippi to central Arkansas.