Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
833 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Current surface and satellite observations depict a slowly advancing warm front moving through the Mid-South. Temperatures are much cooler north of the front(ranging from the low to mid 70's), than they are south of the front( low 80's to near 90). Surface analysis places a warm front from Batesville, Arkansas back through Iuka, Mississippi including the Memphis metro area. A warm front will continue to push through the Mid-South tonight. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially north of I-40 and across much of the area on the Fourth of July as a mid level trough and associated cold front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
944 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Large area of high pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes region late this evening.
increasing cloud cover and dewpoints holding in the 60s/low 70s should aid in low temps near to slightly warmer compared to this mornings lows.
But think the best chance of rain may develop near the DHT and GUY TAF sites after midnight in association with a cold front. first behind a trough and then behind the cold front. In addition, a weak cold front will move across the TX and OK Panhandles tonight and could serve as an additional low level lifting mechanism to assist in tstm development.
A weak ridge continues to build into Utah this evening. For much of the afternoon, convection remained confined to the higher terrain, but with a weak disturbance over Utah earlier now moving into western Colorado, the showers have started to move east while gradually diminishing over the area. The ridge is expected to flatten tomorrow with flow aloft becoming more westerly.
Weak zonal/ridging upper level pattern in place this afternoon. On Sunday, moisture return in the lower levels will begin. In the ext fcst, models have backed off a bit on the potential for a dominating upper ridge to develop. Upper ridge will be slower to develop and the associated upper high will be weaker. A weak ridge will eventually develop by weeks end but some moisture will continue to undercut the ridge. The ext temps are looking a degree or 2 cooler than previous runs.
1125 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will build south of the region through tonight and will shift offshore on Sunday. With this update most areas saw a bump lower on the low temperatures for tonight, though southern New Hampshire was dropped the most. Also made a few adjustments to wind speeds overnight to show valley locations dropping to near calm while eastern areas hang on to the higher speeds for longer. Cool cyclonic flow aloft associated with a deep upper level low will continue tonight as a dry and cool canadian air mass moves in at the surface. A few spots like sheltered mountain valleys well inland may dip into the lower 40s.
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure centered over the area this evening will move off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon.
1011 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2016 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler temperatures to the start of the weekend will begin to move out of the area, allowing fair weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend.
827 PM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Near to slightly below normal temperatures will likely persist through the next seven days as a trough of low pressure lingers across the West Coast. A weak upper level trough will move slowly through the west coast through the holiday weekend, maintaining very mild temperatures for this time of year across the southland.
920 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure centered over the area this evening will move off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The high will weaken over the holiday weekend and allow for temperatures to lower to near average. Thus, will keep the POPs for this afternoon and early this evening for Yosemite in the highest elevations, though added a slight chance for over Kings Canyon along the crest.
/issued 256 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb mid level high pressure residing over Texas and Western Gulf providing a very warm atmosphere and moderately low mean relative humidity. A few showers have developed earlier off the Tamaulipas coast but are having trouble reaching the Lower Texas coastal waters with an increased area of subsidence helping the low level inversion to strengthen this afternoon.
724 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2016 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler temperatures to the start of the weekend will begin to move out of the area, allowing fair weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend.
/issued 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level trough is currently across the Southwest U. On Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough will swing across the southern Plains. Otherwise, a broad ridge aloft remains the dominate feature for the next 7 days. Afternoon highs will remain warmer than normal, with numbers in the upper 90s to around 100 likely.
/Issued 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Warm/breezy conditions this afternoon with temperatures running in the lower to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. A more significant round of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will likely develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries/approaching cold front.
856 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 An upper low is drifting to the west across The Bahamas with a deep layer high pressure over the Atlantic to the north. The axis of the high pressure is crossing the Florida Peninsula. The Atlantic high pressure will be the catalyst for future changes.
1047 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Monsoonal moisture will begin decreasing tonight as troughing exits to the east.
830 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 Subtle drying, transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Anti-cyclonic mid/upper level flow, following the passing trof yesterday/overnight stabilized the airmass in our forecast area today.
Freezing level remains rather high at almost 17,000 feet. The wind profile in the lower layers of the atmosphere remain very light. /issued 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Current synopsis shows upper level trough exiting the northeast United States while weak ridge moves in over the southeast. Subsidence from the ridge has put a hamper on convective development with an isolated shower or 2 near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 96 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 92 71 89 / 10 20 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 92 71 89 / 10 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 68 88 / 10 30 30 40.
/issued 833 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Current surface and satellite observations depict a slowly advancing warm front moving through the Mid-South. Temperatures are much cooler north of the front(ranging from the low to mid 70's), than they are south of the front( low 80's to near 90). Surface analysis places a warm front from Batesville, Arkansas back through Iuka, Mississippi including the Memphis metro area. A warm front will continue to push through the Mid-South tonight. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially north of I-40 and across much of the area on the Fourth of July as a mid level trough and associated cold front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Areas of fog anticipated until the passage of the cold front, which is steadily progressing through the area, and should move southeast of the area by 11z. Current forecast leaves the area slightly warmer with rain or a rain-snow mix anticipated through the morning hours, except for around Jerome where prevailing snow is more favorable.
Still expect a breezy day and elevated fire weather conditions across extreme western OK and western north TX as unseasonably warm temps develop ahead of the highly anticipated cold front within strong downslope, veering low level flow. Some freezing drizzle may be possible with fropa, but if it does develop it should be short lived as the front races southward through Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting a few showers on the distant waters beyond 30 nm south of the Lower and Middle keys. Surface wise, a strong and expansive area of high pressure is centered along the mid Atlantic coast with a ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard and into the Florida peninsula. Under mostly sunny skies and winds turning easterly, high temperatures will climb into the lower 80s in many island locations.
505 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Gradient southwest winds will develop today by late morning or midday ahead of an approaching upper trough dropping south and east from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin region by late today. An arctic cold front is forecast to push south across the Oklahoma and the extreme northern Texas Panhandles by 12Z Saturday. Cannot rule out the possibility of some patchy light freezing drizzle developing between 09Z and 12Z Saturday over the Oklahoma and northeastern Texas Panhandles.
Retreating arctic high pressure is located over the Upper Ohio Valley. Winds will turn southerly today and continue tonight as high pressure continues east and low pressure develops NW of the region.
However, as a 500 MB trough axis approaches from the west an associated vorticity max will increase lift over the area this morning. As the trough axis moves by our area toward late evening it should bring the snowfall to an end with just some floating ice crystals lingering into Saturday morning.
As expected, the coastal ranges received the highest amounts, but places like Ben Lomond in the Santa Cruz mountains received more than expected (over 7 inches total).
941 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Area of high pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast will produce an elevated low level E/SE flow today. This will begin to modify the dry/cooler airmass across the area that built in behind the cold front yesterday.
A windy and wet Pacific storm and associated cold front will cross the region today into Saturday. This Atmospheric River originated south of 20 degrees N latitude in the eastern Pacific and was brought northward by the incoming trough over California. Farther north, the moist southwest flow will continue until about midday/early afternoon when the 700mb trough axis works its way across northwest Utah and and into central Utah by evening. The associated surface cold front is expected to be quite dramatic with temperatures plunging rapidly behind it and scattered thunderstorms not out of the question.
This evening the snow level will begin lowering and should range from about 5000 to 6500 feet north of I-70, to between 6500 to 7600 feet south of I-70, with the highest end of the range south of Red Mountain Pass. The cold front should pass through NE UT and extreme NW CO about 9 PM this evening then continue moving through central UT and CO between midnight and 3 AM. This evening and overnight the area will between the 700 mb and 500 mb troughs with will provide the best instability and lifting as well as cold advection. After the 500 mb trough passes Sat. Clearing will continue from NW to SE Saturday evening then a secondary trough will drop in from the NNW late Saturday night.
743 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening at each terminal, before clouds increase and cigs lower as a cold front moves in.
VFR conditions this morning to gradually detiorate to IFR/LIFR by 17/00Z as moisture increases ahead of a cold front that will move across the region on Saturday.
418 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Today will be a little warmer with aftn highs climbing to arnd 50 with increasing clouds.
Still some question about the expected impact in the lower elevations of Grand and Jackson counties. These areas will probably have mostly snow, but the Kremmling area is still in the lower 40s and that may not change while the rest of those valleys may be warm enough to forestall accumulation. The upper trough comes through with a deeper push of cold air during the night. Models remain quite consistent with a solid snow band along the trough axis, producing a couple inches of snow across the plains.
Today will be a little warmer with aftn highs climbing to arnd 50 with increasing clouds.
421 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 Warm front currently located across northeast Colorado will sag southward today. The far southwestern part of the forecast area will be on the warm side of the front and temperatures could briefly reach the lower 60s, but most of the area will be on the cold side where highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
In addition, intermittent drizzle is falling from the low to mid level cloud deck across portions of east TX, deep east TX and northwest LA this morning. VFR conditions this morning to gradually detiorate to IFR/LIFR by 17/00Z as moisture increases ahead of a cold front that will move across the region on Saturday. /issued 540 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Developing low pressure over the southern plains will bring about increasing se winds across the area this morning. Stg arctic cold front movg into Red River valley by around mid aftn Saturday, with late aftn temps beginning to fall rapidly over nw CWA. Shallow nature of cold front will result in cold air damming over hilly terrain north of I-30, and cold air aloft will lag behind sfc front, which will inhibit svr potential, although low lvl shear will be plentiful.
547 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 Warm front currently located across northeast Colorado will sag southward today. The far southwestern part of the forecast area will be on the warm side of the front and temperatures could briefly reach the lower 60s, but most of the area will be on the cold side where highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
As the coastal trough causing the strong isentropic lifting exits to the northeast, rain chances will gradually diminish from west to east through the afternoon. Onshore winds will increase through the night into Saturday ahead of the next approaching cold front. With dewpoints expected to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, another round of patchy to areas of fog is expected to develop along the Middle Texas Coast as the warm moist are rides over the cooler shelf waters. A prefrontal coastal trough develops across west Texas allowing for winds off the surface to begin to veer out of the south-southwest. From H925 to H85, persistent SSW flow will lead to warmer conditions for Saturday afternoon, as well as lead to additional clearing.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Surface obs and short term model MSL fields indicate some weak but persistent surface troffing occurring near the lower TX coastline. Expect this surface troffing to lift out to the northeast later today which will allow for the light rain and drizzle to taper off around the area. After this troffing lifts further north expect the surface flow to become more southerly and will increase later this afternoon and this evening which will allow the afternoon highs to warm up somewhat today. A strong 500 mb trough axis will continue pushing south and east over the central Plains States today and Saturday. Will lean towards the warmer side of guidance mainly for highs today and Sat The PGF will be strengthening steadily throughout the short term period in response to the surface frontal system developing over the Midwest.
Freezing temperatures in the valley this weekend with dry conditions.
900 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. The overall setup would indicate snow late this evening then a slow change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Eventually, the ground will warm and freezing rain will change over to just plain rain on Saturday. It should be noted that even though thermometers readings will go above freezing, this does not represent what ground temperatures are. So for the forecast, did not indicate a change over to rain once model data indicated a rise above 32 degrees, but held on to freezing rain until temperatures rose closer to 35. So this will eventually allow for a much warmer day Saturday, compared to temperatures of the past week.
Also wrap around precipitation associated with a low pressure system south of the Northern Rockies will cause light to moderate snow accumulations across Lemhi county into southwest Montana. As the low pressure moves off to the east tonight, the skies are anticipated to clear allowing temperatures to drop dramatically across the Northern Rockies. The cloud cover is anticipated to keep temperatures relatively warmer Saturday night, but single digits and slightly below zero will be common.
High pressure aloft centered well offshore will maintain strong northerly flow aloft across the region through Saturday.
453 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Developing low pressure over the southern plains will bring about increasing se winds across the area this morning. Stg arctic cold front movg into Red River valley by around mid aftn Saturday, with late aftn temps beginning to fall rapidly over nw CWA. Shallow nature of cold front will result in cold air damming over hilly terrain north of I-30, and cold air aloft will lag behind sfc front, which will inhibit svr potential, although low lvl shear will be plentiful.
313 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 Upper trough is digging across the far wrn CONUS with zonal flow continuing across the nrn Plains. The GFS has the highest snowfall amounts along the Nebraska border while the ECM is more along I-90. Arctic high pressure will move into the region tonight as the snowfall ends bringing very cold air to the region. with the coldest spots across northeast WY which will be closer the center of the high. Arctic trough will break down in the period with active fast westerly flow developing. Conds will begin to slowly improve Fri night west to east as high pressure builds into the region.
Snow levels will initially range from 7000-8500 feet, but will fall rapidly to around 5000 feet Friday night as a cold front moves across Arizona. Especially where precipitation is enhanced by vertical lift induced by upslope flow, such as the higher elevations of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and the Defiance Plateau. Precipitation will increase again this afternoon and evening as a colder, trailing upper low and surface cold front moves through.
750 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 Issued dense fog advisory with mention of freezing fog/slick roadways, as we now have 4 locations in northwest Kansas reporting 1/4sm and a few locations even lower (Colby/Oakley). Warm front currently located across northeast Colorado will sag southward today. The far southwestern part of the forecast area will be on the warm side of the front and temperatures could briefly reach the lower 60s, but most of the area will be on the cold side where highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
/issued 419 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Today-Tonight: Frontal boundary has moved into the Florida Straits early this morning, leaving a slightly cooler and drier, though still above normal, atmosphere across South Florida.
1047 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Not too much change in the overall airmass from yesterday with the upper ridge continuing to weaken a bit with an upper trough trapped beneath the ridge along the Tennessee Valley and Gulf coast states. This is based on current trends compared to yesterday along with project slightly warmer boundary layer temperatures by this afternoon. Large hail potential will be low as temperatures aloft will remain warm and freezing level will be around 14.
1149 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Hydro Relief from the recent oppressive humidity is on it's way today, courtesy of a cold front sweeping through the area early this morning. A secondary cold front will drop south from Canada tonight and Friday, bringing considerable cloudiness and scattered rain showers. Highs Friday will be only in the lower to mid 70s.
Those with outdoor plans especially should keep an eye on the weather and have a way to get warning information! Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 73 91 72 / 30 50 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 89 70 / 40 40 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 90 71 / 40 40 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 69 88 68 / 40 40 40 40.
Upper trough from the Queen Charlotte's will move inland across southern BC Friday and bring 5 degs cooling to eastern Oregon, but not to western Idaho (yet). Trough will increase clouds in far northern zones Friday, with even a slight chance of a thunderstorm in eastern Valley Co, ID Friday afternoon. Upper level low situated to our north along the Canadian border is still being depicted with good model agreement.
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies range from mostly cloudy in the Lower Keys to mostly sunny in the Upper Keys. Hence, will adjust the zone forecast to reduce pops TO 10 percent and insert partly cloudy skies with high temperatures averaging in the lower 90s.
634 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance The air mass across the region will remain unstable across the region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
A stolid mid level ridge over the southwest U. and high pressure over the Gulf interacting with lower pressure inland is resulting in fairly persistent short term conditions. A shallow, mid level spot low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drift out over the North Gulf through Friday, but not seeing much immediate impact. The 1016 mb isobar over the west Gulf will shift east under the low on Friday, with slightly weaker winds possible as a result of the resulting looser pressure gradient with lower upstream pressure. Heat index values will again be above the century mark this afternoon, with the higher values ranging from 105 to 108 degrees west of U.
755 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Update/Aviation Relief from the recent oppressive humidity is on it's way today, courtesy of a cold front sweeping through the area early this morning. A secondary cold front will drop south from Canada tonight and Friday, bringing considerable cloudiness and scattered rain showers. Highs Friday will be only in the lower to mid 70s.
Analysis of the morning soundings show a considerable layer of warmer air aloft over ILN, capping activity through at least midday. Hi-res models confirm the idea of quiet weather through midday with only some isolated showers over the high terrain.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: A hot, high pressure airmass is currently bottled up over the southwest quarter of the CONUS while zonal flow resides over the northwest quadrant of the CONUS. A weak trough is stretched across the southern western Quarter of Canada where a much cooler airmasses currently exists. A closed low is embedded in this cooler air over the British Columbian coastline. Tonight through Friday night: The closed low over British Columbia will drop south slightly, forcing a weak ridge to form over Montana in response.
542 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 08z surface analysis had weak trough across northern MN into southern ND. Upper low to the northwest of the region will continue to push a series of disturbances across the area through the weekend.
429 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected today.
958 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Tightened pressure gradient between offshore high pressure and inland trough will produce warm and humid conditions again tonight. Bermuda High continues to extend over from the western Atlantic and Piedmont trough inland through the forecast period. Low level thicknesses will slightly drop and 850mb temps btw 19-20 C which supports temps in the low/mid 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.
1055 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure ridging across the area has a general SE flow across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon with the highest chances across the southern half of the area.