Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler highs are expected both days, mainly in the upper 70's through the 80's. Today through Friday night A trof is currently moving into western Nevada and some subtropical moisture is being drawn up into the state. Dewpoints have already risen into the lower 50's early this morning in central Nevada and there are some light showers in northwestern Nye, Lander, and Eureka counties as well as a few lightning strikes. By afternoon, the trof will be moving into eastern Nevada and daytime heating will allow for an increase in convective activity as instability rises. Cooler highs are expected this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70's to near 90 in the warmest valleys. Convective activity will diminish overnight tonight and the trof will move east of the area.
121 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Weak ridging at all levels builds into Lower Michigan overnight, assuring clear-mostly clear skies and very light/calm winds. The previous mentioned upper level ridge will not be a favorable backdrop for diurnal showers (still a very low chance), and will be carrying just scattered VFR clouds above 5000 feet. Large upper level trough remains firmly in place across the eastern CONUS keeping local conditions largely unchanged from the previous day or two.
126 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 GOES 16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis together highlight the broad troughing across eastern CONUS and ridging across the west.
Ludwig 1145 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 (18/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds will continue through at least the next 24 hours under a dry high pressure ridge.
Only weather item to have a brief focus on this period will be yet another trough dropping south with some showers/storms in eastern Lwr MI that may drop down into areas east of I-69 and most likely into NW Ohio and maybe Hillsdale county. Otherwise tonight into Thursday will be quiet as ridge finally settles in and shifts track of these pesky waves further east. Ridge will remain in control through Friday night before northern stream trough makes its drop through the Plains and into the Great Lakes bringing periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.
Expect for tomorrow to be very similar today, with highs warming into the low to mid 80s across the area. These "pleasant for August" temperatures are occurring in response to NNW flow between a large upper level trough over the eastern states and a big hot ridge out west. Temperatures will be similar to last night with lows mostly in the lower 60s, but some upper 50s for valleys and the Plateau. A low pressure system will move into the Mid Ms Valley helping to turn our winds more southerly, and this will start to draw some warmer air and moisture back into Tennessee.
In the upper levels, there is a large longwave trough across E Conus with the parent low across New England. This low will move NE toward New Brunswick, Canada while a second low develops over the Dakotas and MN tonight sinking SWD toward IA through Friday.
259 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Warmer boundary layer air descends from eastern CO into our region again, Today bringing an end to the brief cooler respite. A cold front will move into the area, with greater chances for storms by Friday. Late this afternoon the HiRES models all show a cluster of storms developing in the prefrontal trough ahead of the cold front, and lasting maybe a few hours somewhere in the west central sections of the forecast area - generally west of highway 283 and more likely in the Scott City to GCK regions.
Thursday will be a bit warmer, but overall still very pleasant with highs in the 80s. The main timeframe for severe is 4-9pm Friday will be just a touch cooler behind this cold front with a breezy north wind.
/issued 242 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022/ The cold front has pushed through the FA with temps ranging from the low to upper 80s as of 1 PM. Temps will likely warm by a few more degrees but will otherwise be kept in check by the cold front. As expected, the upper ridge has kept precip out of the CWA thus far. This will reduce both cloud cover and precipitation chances over much of the CWA, resulting in warmer temperatures for Friday.
1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A mid/upper ridge remains situated over the Central Great Basin and Northern Intermountain region while an upper level trough was lifting over the Northeast. Better chances for scattered showers and storms may arrive on Friday afternoon and evening along a southward moving cold front. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the low 90s.
DML (This evening through Thursday) A weak cold front is moving south across North Texas and North Louisiana.
High temperatures across northern AR will reach only the lower to mid 70s; mid 70s to lower 80s across central AR; 80s to lower 90s across southern AR. The frontal boundary has pushed south of the state, into northern LA, where it is expected to meander for a couple of days, as a high pressure air mass shifts south and eastward from the north-central states. Drier air will start to filter into the state from the north late tonight, evaporating some of the low-level cloud cover.
(Today through Friday) Low pressure and upper level trough moving off to the northeast leaving middle TN in northerly flow today. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Extended models start off in a good agreement with a stronger low pressure in the upper midwest region.
Current air temperatures are mostly in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and heat indices remaining in the 90s. The large-scale weather pattern features a trough to the north, weak ridges to the east and west, and a trade-wind belt displaced equatorward over the Caribbean Sea. The weak surface pressure pattern should give way gradually to increasing ESE gradient flow as a low-level Atlantic ridge builds westward over the Florida Peninsula, with the ridge axis lifting northward.
Further north, increased sunshine will allow temperatures to climb a bit higher (although still below average), with highs in the low 80s. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow will drop into the low 60s to upper 50s.
The upper-level ridge still dominates over western CONUS on Thursday. Friday looks slightly more interesting as the ridge gets pushed further west due to an upper-level low dropping down from Canada into the Dakotas. This system will drag a cool front along with it, which will keep temperatures about 5 to 10 cooler than average for areas east of the Laramie Range. It is possible that some frontal forcing could trigger some thunderstorm development Friday afternoon, but storms look to stay confined to the high terrain if they do develop.
For tonight, upper pattern will change with flow becoming more west then southwest as another upper trough digs into the mid- section of the nation.
Any fog will be quick to burn off after sunrise as temperatures will rise quickly with highs today across the area in the lower 80s with upper 70s in locations closer to the lake. The clearing skies and light winds are due to short wave ridging moving into the midwest in the wake of the closed upper low moving further northeastward over the northeastern states. But, as the well advertised northern Plains low starts to slowly move southeastward into the region, and with the low unsettled conditions will accompany the feature.
A ridge of high pressure is moving across from the west, clearing skies overnight. A few cumulus develop along the mountains in the afternoon as weak low pressure east lifts north. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms as the broad trough aloft exits northeast this afternoon and evening.
As high pressure continues to pull away from the east and low pressure slowly builds in from the west, expect the rain showers, and a few thunderstorms, to slowly make their way over the rest of the western UP by this afternoon. Temps for most of the area have been essentially near a repeat of yesterday, whereas over in the far west near Ironwood, observations show temps to be much cooler due to evaporative cooling via the rainfall. The temps may increase a couple of degrees more this afternoon, but some spots may have already seen the high for today. Expect lows tonight to be a little warmer as cloud cover and scattered rainfall moves across the UP; the lows should range from the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas to the low 60s near the Great Lakes.
Water vapor imagery shows a belt of much drier air from KY to southern VA with better moisture from the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Lows will in the lower to mid 70s. Weak low pressure across the offshore waters and ridging across the inland areas will maintain NEly flow around 15 knots across the outer coastal waters to around 10 knots inshore. The low will drift farther east tonight and Thursday allowing for a weaker pressure gradient to develop.
258 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Strong upper ridging sits across the western CONUS this morning, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. A weak frontal boundary over SE MT will push through the CWA this morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Highs will be in the lower 80s over NE WY and NW SD to lower 90s over central SD. Models show an upper low sliding southward from Canada through the eastern Dakotas tonight through Friday. While this upper low will stay east of the CWA, cooler air associated with it will limit Friday highs to the 70s to lower 80s.
Slow moving upper low over New England, combined with a broader trough centered over Hudson Bay, appears to halt eastward progression of trailing waves. Ahead of this wave, should see a mild Thursday, with southwest flow ahead of an associated cold front helping keep temperatures similar to today, with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s. Slightly better chance for scattered storm development along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon.
Looking at tonight and Thursday, the upper ridge is stretched from the western Gulf of Mexico to British Columbia, right across Colorado. Upper level ridging persists over the region Friday as a 500mb trough dips into the central US to the east of CO.
At this hour, there are still a few sprinkles (maybe???) out near Mobridge and further south in Dewey County near Promise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with highs on Thursday in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 60s for most, running a few degrees below climatological normals for this time of year. Seasonal high temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows are then expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning as the low-mid level flow turns more southerly. General troughing will encompass the Great Lakes region and much of the eastern CONUS as we enter the weekend.
A weak cold front will drop southeast through the forecast area today. Kept highs near or slightly warmer than the previous forecast as mostly sunny skies are expected with weak warm air advection. The weak cold front will be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern third of the forecast area where increasing low- level convergence will exist. A closed upper low will drop southward over MN and the eastern Dakotas tonight. Weak high pressure will build into western Nebraska with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight. Went slightly cooler with lows, mainly from 53 to 59 degrees. On Friday, the upper low will drop into southern MN and NW IA. Cooler highs from the mid and upper 70s north to mid and upper 80s southwest.
The chance for thunderstorms will be limited today and become more widespread tomorrow aided by an upper level trough sinking deep into the SE combined with the subtropical jet. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
With less cloud cover today, afternoon temps will be a little warmer than previous days, topping out in the mid to upper 80s. With high pressure and northerly winds playing more of a role today, expect the shower/storm activity to remain south of the area closer to a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast.
A cold front approaching from the north may support an isolated storm or two getting into portions of north-central Kansas this evening.
1058 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A weakened western Atlantic ridge axis stretches west to near the Bahamas.
Warmer boundary layer air descends from eastern CO into our region again, Today bringing an end to the brief cooler respite. A cold front will move into the area, with greater chances for storms by Friday. Late this afternoon the HiRES models all show a cluster of storms developing in the prefrontal trough ahead of the cold front, and lasting maybe a few hours somewhere in the west central sections of the forecast area generally west of highway 283 and more likely in the Scott City to GCK regions.
612 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 MSAS surface analysis and airport observations depict an area of high pressure overhead early this morning, leading to quiet and cool conditions.
An upper level ridge will continue to produce very warm temperatures across Western Washington today.
Thereafter, a slow rise in 500mb heights finally begins today as upper level low pressure lifts across and north of New England today. Thursday night and Friday will be dry as high pressure transitions across the region.
309 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A high pressure ridge will help keep the area mostly dry with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the weekend.
Otherwise, another day of hot interior temperatures will give way to slightly cooler conditions during the weekend. An upper trough was passing northeast across NRN CA early this morning. Ascent associated with a deformation zone within the trough combined with a moist and weakly unstable midlevel airmass was aiding in isolated shower and thunderstorm development over Trinity County. Elsewhere, interior temperatures will be warm once again this afternoon, with locally hot conditions in the low 100s forecast to occur across portions of Lake County. high temperatures are forecast to cool 5 to 10 degrees across the interior as an upper ridge shifts east of the region and an upper trough develops across the NERN PAC.
1049 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure continues to slowly build into the region. An upper level trough forming over the Upper Midwest will draw moisture from the south and bring rain back into the picture for the weekend and first part of the new week. As we mix deeper, the moisture trapped near the sfc will lift and start to form cu, probably first on the higher hills over the nrn tier. Steep lapse rates will help them grow fairly tall again, but the upper low is pulling away which means that the coldest of the air aloft is moving away with it. Friday should be a few degs warmer with plenty of sunshine. The high overhead will slide SE and build some over the East Coast.
701 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure continues to slowly build into the region. An upper level trough forming over the Upper Midwest will draw moisture from the south and bring rain back into the picture for the weekend and first part of the new week. As we mix deeper, the moisture trapped near the sfc will lift and start to form cu, probably first on the higher hills over the nrn tier. Steep lapse rates will help them grow fairly tall again, but the upper low is pulling away which means that the coldest of the air aloft is moving away with it. Friday should be a few degs warmer with plenty of sunshine. The high overhead will slide SE and build some over the East Coast.
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Weak high pressure will extend over the area into Friday. The chance of rain will return over the weekend as a weakening area of low pressure moves through. However, by Friday afternoon an inverted trough over eastern Kentucky and West Virginia may try to pivot towards southeastern counties. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s with highs a few degrees warmer than today. An upper low over the Midwest will weaken as it tracks east through the lower Great Lakes this weekend.
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 (Today through Friday) Low pressure and upper level trough moving off to the northeast leaving middle TN in northerly flow today. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Extended models start off in a good agreement with a stronger low pressure in the upper midwest region.
Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week across the interior while cooler conditions persist near the coast.
A ridge of high pressure is moving across from the west, clearing skies overnight. A few cumulus develop along the mountains in the afternoon as weak low pressure east lifts north. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms as the broad trough aloft exits northeast this afternoon and evening. An upper level low centered over MN/ND begins tracking southeast towards the area during the short term period.
456 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Strong upper ridging sits across the western CONUS this morning, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. A weak frontal boundary over SE MT will push through the CWA this morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Highs will be in the lower 80s over NE WY and NW SD to lower 90s over central SD. Models show an upper low sliding southward from Canada through the eastern Dakotas tonight through Friday. While this upper low will stay east of the CWA, cooler air associated with it will limit Friday highs to the 70s to lower 80s.
-- Mon and beyond -- The EPS mean has trended a bit faster with the progression of the midlevel low/trough on Mon, but chance PoPs are certainly justified on Mon as this system gradually moves eastward. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop today/tonight over MN, deepening only modestly (to 1007 mb) by Fri morning. Thereafter, this low will gradually weaken while progressing slowly southeastward, likely reaching the vicinity of northern OH by Mon afternoon. Moreover, an offshore wind component may develop in many nearshore zones on Sun as the low passes just south of the region, further limiting wave heights.
The lowest valleys around the Camas Prairie will remain under a heat advisory for today, with highs peaking between 104-108F degrees. This will also allow for slightly "cooler" temperatures, but still relatively hot, and around 10F degrees above normal.
500 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A high pressure ridge will help keep the area mostly dry with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the weekend.
Current temperatures in the Delta, southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley range from the mid 60s to mid 70s, around 5 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago over much of the area. The shower and thunderstorm threat today will be limited to the northern portion of the forecast area (Shasta, Tehama and Plumas Counties) as the low moves north taking the axis of deeper moisture/instability with it.
Warmer boundary layer air descends from eastern CO into our region again today, bringing an end to the brief cooler respite. A cold front will move into the area, with greater chances for storms, by Friday. Late this afternoon, the HiRES models all show a cluster of storms developing in the prefrontal trough ahead of the cold front, and lasting maybe a few hours somewhere in the west central sections of the forecast area generally west of highway 283 and more likely in the Scott City to GCK regions.
301 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure with more zonal flow will lead to dry conditions and near normal highs in the 80s for the next couple of days. An upper ridge will move back eastward into the region allowing widespread 90s to return for the weekend.
(Today) A deepening mid/upper low will continue to lift slowly northeastward along the coast of New England and into New Brunswick today, with a trough extending southwestward from the cyclone expected to spread across the TN Valley later this morning. Cirroform clouds forming in a zone of weak elevated ascent ahead of the trough have recently spread across the region, and will likely reduce radiational cooling for the remainder of the morning. Skies should begin to clear from W-to-E after sunrise, with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures expected this afternoon (highs ranging from the lower 80s in elevated terrain to the m-u 80s in valley locations).
721 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 GOES 16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis together highlight the broad troughing across eastern CONUS and ridging across the west. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cut off low interrupts the pattern of broad downstream troughing and ridging across the western and central CONUS.
732 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure continues to slowly build into the region. An upper level trough forming over the Upper Midwest will draw moisture from the south and bring rain back into the picture for the weekend and first part of the new week. As we mix deeper, the moisture trapped near the sfc will lift and start to form cu, probably first on the higher hills over the nrn tier. Steep lapse rates will help them grow fairly tall again, but the upper low is pulling away which means that the coldest of the air aloft is moving away with it. Friday should be a few degs warmer with plenty of sunshine. The high overhead will slide SE and build some over the East Coast.
Quiet weather continues with partly cloudy skies, highs today in the low to mid 80s, and lows tonight in the low 60s. Rain chances return to the area starting later in the day Friday as a weak cold front moves into the area.
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains situated over the Central Great Basin area while a large trough encompassed much of the eastern CONUS. Seasonable lows in the low to mid 60s are anticipated across the region tonight. The southward sagging cold front will become a focus for showers and storms especially after 18Z where weak cinh is progged. The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain anchored across the western CONUS while some troughing in the east gradually deamplifies as we move through the week.
Temperatures will remain seasonably cool overnight and pleasant through the day, with overnight lows in the 60s and highs on Friday in the low to mid 90s.
TFJ High pressure with more zonal flow will lead to dry conditions and near normal highs in the 80s for the next couple of days. An upper ridge will move back eastward into the region allowing widespread 90s to return for the weekend.
the boundary will start to move northward in response to a low pressure system and trough strengthening across the Ohio Valley. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s.
An upper level low pressure system currently situated over the Manitoba and North Dakota border will dive southeast into Minnesota and the Dakotas through tonight. A weak cold front has continued to track southeast across southern South Dakota into north central Nebraska today. As this cold front continues to track southeast, increasing low level convergence will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for portions of southwest into eastern portions of north central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. The aforementioned upper low will continue to track southward into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa through the day on Friday. Cooler daytime temperatures will accompany these precipitation chances with highs in the upper 70s north to mid to upper 80s south.
As expected, cumulus development is currently occurring along the higher terrain. For tonight, upper pattern will change with flow becoming more west then southwest as another upper trough digs into the mid- section of the nation.
Temperatures appear on track and no adjustments have been made at this time, but will have to watch the low cloud cover and its impact on the expected warm up in southeast Oklahoma closely.