Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On Tuesday, upper level ridging moves into place. Despite a good bit of cloud cover, warmer air will ride in on southerly winds.
Cooler and somewhat unsettled weather is expected to persist through the end of the work week. Today and This Evening: A deep low pressure system will move into central and southern California today as the southern branch of the Polar Jet dips further south than it has in several weeks. Members of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) produce the most significant shower activity this afternoon and evening across northeast Oregon into the southern Idaho Panhandle with a 50-70% chance of measurable precipitation across the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and southern portions of Shoshone county. Overnight into Tuesday: North winds will develop by mid to late evening and channel drier and slightly cooler air down the Okanogan Valley into the Columbia Basin.
The one limiting factor would be winds as again high pressure remaining close to the region limiting pressure gradient. Models show a massive high pressure cell expanding across the E CONUS, With an associated dry, decaying frontal boundary stalling around central Florida Today. Over the GOMEX, deep-layered ridging still dominates, and gradually Migrating east.
527 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022 One more day of near record temperatures is forecast as the strong ridge overhead begins to break down. This afternoon and evening, moisture begins moving into the southwest portion of Wyoming, denoting a pattern change as a robust trough moves through the western CONUS. The majority of the energy and lift with this wave is well to the south and associated with the cut-off, southern jet stream upper low; however, a northern stream open wave will drop down on Tuesday, creating enhanced lift and giving most locations east of the Divide an opportunity for precipitation.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure is moving ashore into southern California. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing in eastern Colorado. A surface warm front will extend southward along the Colorado state line today and then eastward across northern Oklahoma, with most of central and southwestern Kansas on the cool side of the boundary with upslope southeast winds. This will prevent a huge warm up as highs should range from the mid to upper 60s at Hays to the lower 80s at Elkhart, with around 70 at Dodge City.
Early this morning, an upper level ridge axis was centered over central Montana with western and central North Dakota on the eastern slope. This ridge axis will eventually move overhead through the day, promoting mild temperatures. On Tuesday, we transition to southwest flow aloft as the next mean trough approaches with two distinct waves noted in split flow. There may be a brief transition zone across the north early on Tuesday that could see a mix of light rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain but ice accumulations are not expected at this time.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with west to northwest winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less.
Areas near or north of I-80 and the ridges may receive up to another inch or so of snowfall accumulation with less expected elsewhere. By Monday night, high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature with cold air still in place, which will allow for well below average temperatures. As a low begins to develop across the Plains Tuesday, ridging will develop to the west and a warm frontal boundary will develop to the south.
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. The high will be situated east of the region on Tuesday and a warm frontal boundary will be the focus for precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night.
213 AM PDT Mon Mar 28 2022 An approaching low pressure system will continue to move further inland and bring rain and mountain snow along with a slight chance for thunderstorms today. High pressure will rebuild beginning later Tuesday with a warming and drying trend through the week. In addition, cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for today, as highs struggle to top the mid-60's at the warmest spots. Tuesday is expected to be warmer with near seasonal temperatures, as the storm moves into the Desert Southwest.
As the disturbance passes, northerly surface flow develops and helps to produce additional shower activity over north-central Montana, followed by another stronger upper disturbance and surface cold front diving south across the area Monday night into Tuesday which will allow for steadier rain changing to snow.
The RAWS site on Big Pine Key is currently reading 58 degrees as of 4 AM, which is 8 degrees cooler than at the Key West Airport, and a staggering 12 degrees colder than at the Marathon Airport. This will likely be the lowest Big Pine will get down to as high cirrus is quickly moving in from the west.
The warm front lifts northward across the area today as the upper ridge passes overhead, and afternoon highs will rise into the mid-80s and low-90's with hottest conditions over western north Texas. The next upper trough that is expected to cause Tuesday's storm development will reach the California coast today. As temperatures heat up into the lower 80s and lower 90's, RH values will drop to 15 to 25 percent across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas this afternoon.
From synopsis, high pressure extending over the Florida Peninsula will slowly slide eastward through mid-week.
412 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Upper trof along the west coast will move through the intermountain west today and into the plains by midweek. Warm temperatures are expected across eastern Montana today with the ridge ahead of the trof. Winds will be a limiting factor today, with a broad lee trof over central Montana.
A Pacific low pressure system will move through Arizona tonight and Tuesday. As the Pacific low pressure starts to push to the east, we will have an tightening pressure gradient across the region resulting in strengthening southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible through portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures today are expected to be slightly warmer with upper 50s across northeast Arkansas, Missouri Bootheel and northwestern Tennessee and upper 60s to low 70s across north Mississippi. While an upper level low pressure system continues diving across the upper Great Lakes into the New England states, another upper level low is moving onto the Southern California coast by this evening. Overnight lows will also be rather balmy in the low to mid 60s.
MSunny skies, dry, and pleasant again today as high pressure builds across the area. W/NW pressure gradient supporting 15 knots with some higher gusts this morning over the Atlc waters will weaken as high pressure pushes east across south FL forcing the gradient to relax.
A low pressure trough will bring increasing southwest winds to the area today along with increasing cloud cover.
654 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. The high will be situated east of the region on Tuesday and a warm frontal boundary will be the focus for precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night.
High pressure was centered just north of the Minnesota border early this morning, with surface ridging extending south into the Midwest and even southeast US. 1) Quiet today with increasing clouds 2) Slight chance of rain showers south of Hwy 34 early morning Tuesday [Discussion] High pressure will remain the rule for one more day and will keep dry and quiet weather going through today. The aforementioned WAA occurring just to the south will begin to strengthen and spread more into the Midwest as the high departs to the east. Clouds will increase across the area as a result, but not expecting any precipitation as there is quite a bit of dry air to work through in the low-levels.
1047 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Sent an update this morning to provide a bit more detail for the upcoming cold front and precipitation event. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper trof along the west coast will move through the intermountain west today and into the plains by midweek. Warm temperatures are expected across eastern Montana today with the ridge ahead of the trof. Winds will be a limiting factor today, with a broad lee trof over central Montana. PATTERN: Warm ridge of high pressure today will slide eastward by tonight, before a defined low pressure trough from the Canadian Rockies sweeps down through eastern Montana through Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and better chances for a rain/snow mix.
(The rest of today ) Nearly stationary boundary that has been draped across the area over the weekend is beginning to shift northward this morning in response to a strong upper trough moving onshore the west coast. Boundary should continue to move north throughout the day, bringing warmer temperatures to northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon than the previous couple of days. The warmer temperatures and increasing wind speeds will pose at least a limited fire weather threat, particularly areas west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.
A deep upper level trough of low pressure will push eastward into the Four Corners Region/Desert Southwest Tuesday setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Milder temperatures are likely tonight as prevailing southeasterlies pull warmer air into central/western Kansas along with increasing surface dewpoints. Expect lows generally down into the 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F). Significantly drier/warmer air will spread into southwest/central Kansas Tuesday as lee side troughing/sharpening dryline advances through much of southwest Kansas by early/mid afternoon, pushing H85 temperatures up around 20C.
With deeper mixing expected again through this afternoon, temperatures should be comparable to yesterday's max temps for areas already under the returning Gulf air mass (and a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the northern half of MS). /NF/ Prior discussion below: As the broad east coast upper trough finally pushes off into the northern Atlantic, upper ridging will move over our region. The upper ridge will remain in place through the entire short term forecast period, which will result in highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 50s in the northeast and east to the lower 60s in the west.
This along with gradually increasing heights will lead to much warmer conditions by Tuesday.
Amplified trough of low pressure moving through the western states through Tuesday. Temperatures keep snow levels at mid slope and above through tonight until trough axis shifts east. Surface gradient shifts to the north early Tuesday following passage of trough axis, allowing snow levels to begin lowering with cooler air filtering into the region. The next trough arrives late Wed night in the central Idaho mountains and the ID-MT border area. The cluster analysis indicates two scenarios with a weak trough, and two scenarios with differing strength upper level ridging, with just a slight nod to the wetter solution (the trough). The trough should cause some marginal VFR CIGs during the overnight hours into the early morning as the airdromes open.
Low temperatures will fall to either side of freezing and up to the mid 30s along the Missouri River as increasing cloud cover along with the winds will prevent efficient radiational cooling. This low will be our next storm system for Tuesday. As alluded to in the previous discussion, high temperatures will be tricky depending on how far north the warm front lifts. Rain begins to transition to snow overnight Tuesday as cold air advection on the backside of the system cools thermo profiles to below freezing aloft.
428 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a closed low over Lake Ontario and a trough on the west coast with a closed low off the CA coast. This closed low and trough will head east and maintains split flow with the northern branch making it to the northern plains 00z Wed while the southern system kicks out and forms a closed low in the northern plains then.
242 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Enjoying a summer-like ridge of warm high pressure across our region today. As this ridge quickly moves east of our area tonight, a well- defined low pressure trough from the Canadian Rockies dives south-southeastward into eastern Montana on Tuesday. Most model data has fallen into a rough agreement, showing banded precipitation lining up ahead of and near the strong cold front. Best chances for a rain/snow mix will be 5 AM through 9 AM - (maybe a little freezing rain in our NE zones for just a few hours).
Warmer temperatures overnight and on Tuesday. Discussion: The short term period looks quiet as high pressure at the surface keeps dry conditions across the area. Additionally, heights will be on the increase tonight and on Tuesday as a ridge builds across the plains and Mississippi River Valley. This should keep conditions a bit warmer tonight with low 30's to near 40. Heights will continue to increase as the ridge axis shifts east. High pressure moving east will allow winds to veer toward the south late morning through the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Tuesday will be warmer as highs reach the 60's across most areas to the lower 70's across the southern valley. A warm front will lift NE Tuesday afternoon with isentropic ascent increasing across the Tennessee Valley.
Today through Tuesday Night One more day of near record temperatures is forecast, as the strong ridge overhead begins to break down. This afternoon and evening, moisture begins moving into the southwest portion of Wyoming, denoting a pattern change as a robust trough moves through the western CONUS. The majority of the energy and lift with this wave is well to the south and associated with the cut-off, southern jet stream upper low; however, a northern stream open wave will drop down on Tuesday, creating enhanced lift and giving most locations east of the Divide an opportunity for precipitation.
A low pressure system will bring a mix of valley rain and mountain snow across northwestern Nevada tonight, spreading eastward throughout the overnight before ending late Tuesday afternoon in eastern Nevada.
Upper level northwest flow will transition to westerly on Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds into the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Sky coverage will diminish and winds will lessen overnight as high pressure slides in from the west. As a low begins to develop across the Plains Tuesday, ridging will develop to the west and a warm frontal boundary will develop to the south.
159 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will allow dry conditions through tonight. As the high begins to slide east of the region on Tuesday, a warm front will lift into the region during the day, bringing a chance for light rain Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
Highly confluent upper level northwest flow will allow for high pressure (1029-1030 MB) to track through the Central Great Lakes tonight and through the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow.
221 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022 The dominant warm H5 trough will finally get pushed to the east tonight into tomorrow, opening up the region to a late winter season system. Tomorrow morning, a cold front begins to surge southward from Montana, bringing in colder air at lower elevations.
1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 (The rest of today ) Nearly stationary boundary that has been draped across the area over the weekend is beginning to shift northward this morning in response to a strong upper trough moving onshore the west coast. Boundary should continue to move north throughout the day, bringing warmer temperatures to northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon than the previous couple of days. The warmer temperatures and increasing wind speeds will pose at least a limited fire weather threat, particularly areas west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.
The aforementioned high will continue to slide eastward into the western Atlantic, reinforced by a second dome of high pressure sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes.
Winds then begin to decrease overnight as boundary layer depth decreases, though are expected to remain breezy over the high terrain. The most impactful period is expected to occur during this time period, resulting in the potential for slick and snow covered roads across the high terrain for the Tuesday morning commute.
353 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 73 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 66 50 79 58 / 10 10 0 0 90 Oak Ridge, TN 37 65 49 78 56 / 10 10 0 0 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 55 42 76 56 / 10 20 0 0 80.
324 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure was over eastern WI and IL this afternoon, with plenty of sun to be had with some mid and high level cloudiness streaming SE across IA and southern IL. Tonight, high pressure will move off to the east as a warm front lifts into MO ahead of the well advertised storm system. Maintained the low slight chance POPs for drizzle for the pre-dawn and morning hours. Temps will need to be watched closely, for possible freezing drizzle on mainly elevated surfaces should the drizzle materialize as expected and temps drop below 32 for a time. Tuesday, the warm front will lift into the southern parts of the area with a slight chance for light rain through the afternoon hours.
West of the trough. low pressure now in northern Nevada this afternoon as indicated on IR satellite imagery. This low will continue moving east through the overnight hours into Tuesday.
Upper trof moves through the region tonight and tomorrow. Energy with the trof is split between an open wave to the north and a wrapped up upper low over the 4-corners region. Snow levels drop through the morning hours to around 4000 feet, and continue to fall into the afternoon hours Tuesday as colder air pushes south behind the overnight cold front. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid 20s across the area, with areas that see snow having the potential for the upper teens.
Persistent trough across the eastern US finally moves east tonight and an upper ridge builds early Tue. This ridge however will slip by quickly late Tue and by sunrise Wed, we are already in a ML/UL well in southwest flow regime. This upper pattern shift is in response to a deep-digging upper trough across the plains. The approaching storm system will also push a warm front well north by early Wed. This line will be followed by a cold front late Wed night, then the trailing upper trough axis on Thu. But there is another weak system coming in Sat/Sat night, which may give us a few showers, but those will be gone pretty quickly Sun morning as a weak upper trough moves east.
302 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will allow dry conditions through tonight. As the high begins to slide east of the region on Tuesday, a warm front will lift into the region during the day, bringing a chance for light rain Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
243 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will travel southeast tonight.
237 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a closed low over Lake Ontario and a trough on the west coast with a closed low off the CA coast. This closed low and trough will head east and maintains split flow with the northern branch making it to the northern plains 00z Wed while the southern system kicks out and forms a closed low in the northern plains then. Main item of interest in the extended is the low pressure system that's expected to lift through the Upper Great Lakes in the middle to later half of this coming work week.
323 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Under a ridge aloft another relatively tranquil night is on tap for the area, however, a more active scenario sets up for late Tuesday and Tuesday night. According to soundings and sfc temp forecast, the all liquid pcpn will change over to a mix and then mostly snow as UVM cools off the lower to mid troposphere Tuesday night.
Ahead of the cold front late this afternoon, anticipate rain showers and a couple thunderstorms to develop (best chance across north central Idaho and southwest Montana). Snow levels will drop to near 3500 feet this evening through Tuesday morning across northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide, as relatively cold air quickly moves in behind the cold front from today.
245 PM PDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Widespread showers and cooler weather today. We are seeing scattered showers across the region spin around this low with the majority of the shower activity from Chico south. Scattered showers are going to continue for a few more hours but will start to diminish after sunset as the upper level trough pushes east. The trough will push into the four corners region tomorrow and cyclonic flow will linger over the Sierra. Otherwise short wave ridging will build in brining quiet conditions along with warming temperatures.
The low moisture content surrounding the region coupled with limited lift and instability will inhibit shower development tonight and Tuesday. High pressure over the region will slowly slide eastward over the next several days.
As a low begins to develop across the Plains Tuesday, ridging will develop to the west and a warm frontal boundary will develop to the south. This will promote warm, moist advection into the Upper Ohio River Valley, causing warmer, but still seasonably cool temperature and increasing cloud cover Tuesday.
Under a ridge aloft another relatively tranquil night is on tap for the area, however, a more active scenario sets up for late Tuesday and Tuesday night. According to soundings and sfc temp forecast, the all liquid pcpn will change over to a mix and then mostly snow as UVM cools off the lower to mid troposphere Tuesday night.
925 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday.
Temperatures should fall to the low to mid 20s with some areas in the northeastern parts of the CWA potentially getting into the upper teens. The high continues to push out with the low beginning to push in Tuesday evening bringing chances for precip by the late afternoon/early evening.
731 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 VFR conditions are expected as high pressure expands across the area from the west. Light northwest flow will become southeast Tuesday as the center of this high progresses to the east. * Low in a light wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain developing in the 03z-06z time frame Tuesday night. Highly confluent upper level northwest flow will allow for high pressure (1029-1030 MB) to track through the Central Great Lakes tonight and through the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow.
244 PM PDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening as a closed low system exits the region. A closed low system off the central CA coast continues to press inland with the main moisture plume riding up the west slopes of the southern Sierra. Northerly breezes with gusts around 20-25 mph will remain in the wake of the departing low on Tuesday with temperatures rebounding back into the lower-mid 60s for western Nevada valleys and lower- mid 50s near the Sierra.
725 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a closed low over Lake Ontario and a trough on the west coast with a closed low off the CA coast. This closed low and trough will head east and maintains split flow with the northern branch making it to the northern plains 00z Wed while the southern system kicks out and forms a closed low in the northern plains then.
706 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will keep things quiet and cool throughout the remainder of today. A strong low pressure system will develop in the lee of the Rockies and work into the Midwest over the next few days.
Dryer weather is soon to follow as upstream ridging sets in midweek. Those clouds will be complemented by slightly cooler afternoon temperatures compared to the previous couple of days, and an increasing onshore breeze.