Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Without that wind, temperatures will still be well above normal but not as warm as Wednesday and there will be a potential for air stagnation to develop over time, especially by late weekend as the ridge axis will be over our area. The fall is a time of change and the potential for a weakening in our ever dominant high pressure is possible by the following weekend. The big question will be how fast our current Rex Block, high pressure over low pressure blocking pattern, gives way. A building ridge over the region today will cause VFR conditions.
Expect some lingering showers through the central and southern mountains along the Divide into Thursday, but subsidence will squelch showers by Thursday evening as the trough moves out onto the Plains.
356 AM PDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Frankly not much will be going on today as high pressure builds over the region.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Southerly winds at the surface and westerly winds aloft will advect warmer temperatures into the area today. An upper level trough over the western states will reach the Rocky Mountains early Thursday morning. The jet stream rounding the base of the trough will be favorably positioned to cause strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains, and potentially farther south into the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains with windy conditions expected in the adjacent lower elevations later in the day on Thursday. The trough will push a Pacific cold front into West Texas and a northwesterly wind shift will bring temperatures back down closer to normal.
High pressure is expected to move over the Northern Rockies Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, however the next series of Pacific storm systems will begin producing precipitation over the region by Thursday night.
353 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Cooler air will work its way into the area today as high pressure works in from the west, resulting in a noticeable cooldown from yesterday. Even with the high pressure system building in, a few showers and even a rumble of thunder will be possible this afternoon and evening thanks to pop up showers.
404 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Today through Tonight: A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin and drift slowly east today. On and off sprinkles will still be possible into the daytime, with the chances gradually following the low to the east. Temperatures should rise generally into the mid 60s this afternoon, but a few spots in northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas could hit the low 70s if the clouds thin out heading into the daytime.
Highs will get into the lower to mid 60s if the sun is able to break through for a bit. Rain will spread slowly from south to north through the morning as a low pressure system tracks over the region. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 49 71 51 65 / 60 20 0 0 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 49 69 47 69 / 100 20 0 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 64 48 69 47 67 / 100 20 0 0 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 47 67 44 69 / 80 20 10 0 50.
457 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Current surface map places cold front across western South Dakota. Dry/warm conditions on tap for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridge shifts into the plains.
Cooler air will work its way into the area today as high pressure works in from the west, resulting in a noticeable cooldown from yesterday. Even with the high pressure system building in, a few showers and even a rumble of thunder will be possible this afternoon and evening thanks to pop up showers.
1022 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south of the area today and tonight, with a few showers expected.
Coldest daytime highs should be found near the I-80 corridor where snow should stick around the longest, so it may be tough to get much warmer than 35-40 F around Cheyenne in particular on Thursday.
Tonight into Thursday, an upper ridge will move eastward over the Northern Rockies. This ridge will bring dry weather with light winds for much of the area.
Shower coverage has become less over the last couple of hours as the upper low responsible for today's weather continues to rotate out of the region.
Highs are still expected to be in the low 70s with increasing winds this afternoon as the PBL expands and taps into a weak LLJ. Broad low-amplitude ridging and positive 500-mb height anomalies are present across the area. Weak flow will slowly advect warmer plume into our area during the next two days, especially as mean ridging shifts eastward and the next trough approaches. This, combined with slightly deeper mixing will yield slightly warmer temperatures today and tomorrow, with tomorrow being the warmest.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front moving east across Minnesota early this afternoon. The cold front will move across northern Wisconsin this evening and exit the Lake Michigan shoreline early overnight. Lows ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Partial clearing is possible in the afternoon as the low clouds mix out. Temps will fall back several degrees with highs ranging from the low 40s to low 50s.
A weak upper trough will support isolated showers through this afternoon, mainly in the West Central Mountains.
There is widespread dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere therefore not all precipitation is reaching the ground. The warmer air will be short- lived as a cold front is progged to move through the CWA later this evening shifting the winds more westerly/northwesterly.
233 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows cool front well south and east of the region, with low pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows broad trough over the Intermountain West, with one wave over the northern Rockies and another in the Four Corners area. A mainly dry and mild pattern can be expected through at least most of the weekend as ridge rebuilds over the western US late this week and shifts over the Plains this weekend. The upper trough to the west will move east into the Plains through late Thursday, with the two waves merging into a stronger system over the central Rockies and southern Plains.
1137 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Cut-off upper low over central MS will continue to slowly slide to the east today allowing upper level ridge to build into the region with increasing southwesterly flow. /Canadian border, dragging a cold front eastward, moving into northwestern Missouri by this evening. Otherwise, another dry and well above normal day is expected with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s.
The clouds and rain are associated with an upper level low currently centered over southern Mississippi and moving slowly east. The latest GOES east Water Vapor Imagery shows a cutoff low pressure system churning over southern Mississippi and slowly sliding eastward at this hour. We will see about a 24 hour break from the rain as weak ridging builds in behind the exiting low. A new trough will develop over the Four Corners Region Thursday afternoon and traverse east across the Rockies. The trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves across the Southern Plains Thursday night.
The next chance for precipitation arrives later Thursday night as a cold front and low pressure system lift through just north of the Ohio River Valley. Cooler temperatures are expected for the start of the weekend. A cold front associated with the northern wave will move through the area on Thursday before stalling out from roughly Champaign to Jacksonville as the southern low quickly approaches. Temperatures on Thursday will be unseasonably warm once again, though slightly cooler values will be seen west of the Illinois River behind the cold front. Scattered showers look to develop along the cold front Thursday evening.
1216 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the region today bringing widespread showers and possible thunderstorms through tonight.
139 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south and east of the area tonight into Thursday.
High pressure will remain in control the next 24 hours, with very limited rain chances. Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer today with 90s out west and mid 80s forecast for the rest of the area. Tomorrow will be warmer, breezier, and more humid than today. An incoming 500mb level trough works its way into northern Texas strengthening the pressure gradient causing our winds to increase making for a breezy day especially for the coastal counties with gusts up to 20-25 mph.
A partially closed low is moving eastward across the region today and will instigate shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent showers/storms have already developed this morning directly in assoc/w the center of the low over portions of central AL. However, gradual destabilization and low-lvl convergence on the north side of the low over our area will gradually lead to convective development. Lingering afternoon rainfall/convection will begin to taper off by the evening hours as the upper low finally shifts to the NE into the Carolinas. An upper-ridge axis will briefly shift over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, giving us some dry and warm conditions given the southerly flow and sunshine -- with highs in the lower 70s.
Models continue to show high pressure building in tonight into tomorrow, which will bring dry conditions and overall light winds.
1122 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Current surface map places cold front across western South Dakota. Dry/warm conditions on tap for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridge shifts into the plains.
- Moldan Beyond today/tonight, expect benign weather through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a cut-off low is moving south of the region and into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. Most of the rain with this system has already moved out of the region but some lingering light showers or drizzle will be possible late this afternoon and evening as wrap around moisture on the back side of the low moves overhead. After midnight any rain or drizzle should be confined to SW Virginia, NE Tennessee and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Tomorrow will be dry as a ridge moves over the region.
312 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south and east of the area tonight into Thursday.
Light and variable winds will continue and shift to the south southeast later tonight into Thursday morning as the high pressure moves further away from the local area. A cold front associated to the aforementioned low pressure will progress southward and make its way across the College Station and Huntsville area shortly after midnight, the Houston Metro area around 3-4 AM, and the coast around 5 AM. For temperatures, lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s (possibly in the low 60s along the coast) and highs on Thursday will range between the upper 60s to low 80s.
Light rain and snow showers over the mountains of northeast Oregon will diminish by mid to late afternoon as upper level high pressure builds over the region. /GK Rain and snow showers over the mountains of northeast Oregon will decrease through the afternoon as upper level high pressure builds over the region. Until about 21z, some of the ridges south of Pendleton and Walla Walla may be obscured by showers.
The low level jet pulls away tonight and conditions will slowly improve. High pressure over Ontario continues to move east. As a result, winds have turned to the southeast and are advecting in slightly higher dewpoints over temperatures in the lower 30s. Temperatures will climb into the 60s today and Thursday before a cold front approaches late in the week.
The low deck could cause temporary "soupy conditions" across the north, but gusty winds and elevated dew point spread will hinder any fog development.
If this does occur, it's likely going to accomplish two things: keep temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight and also stunt warming tomorrow.
226 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A weak trough continues to move through the area. It will not be all that strong, but given the low freezing levels there could be a mix or rain and snow with these showers or maybe some small graupel. Ridging will be building in, with clear skies. Temperatures will be a little warmer, but only a few degrees.
Highs will get into the lower to mid 60s if the sun is able to break through for a bit. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 71 51 65 47 / 20 0 0 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 69 47 69 48 / 20 0 0 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 48 69 47 67 47 / 20 0 0 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 67 44 69 48 / 20 10 0 50 60.
Despite the clouds temperatures have been able to climb into the lower 50s over much of the west half with even some downsloping locations along the Lake Superior shoreline over the east half reaching into the low 50s. Onshore southerly flow off Lake Michigan has kept temperatures a bit cooler in general over the east half with readings generally in the 40s. through early evening but otherwise dry conditions are expected under broad mid to upper level ridging. Lows tonight will struggle to drop below the freezing mark with clouds elsewhere helping to moderate temps.
A weak upper trough overhead and some cooler air in the low levels to start the extended, but warm advection begins with southerly flow and plenty of sunshine. Flow aloft remains weak with an upstream ridge becoming more pronounced.
As the 850 mb thermal ridge advects in from the west on Thursday. A weak cold front pushes through during the day and that will lead to some cold air advection for the afternoon.
310 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Tonight, the low pressure system, to our south, will continue its northeast path towards North Carolina. This will carry any remaining precipitation east away from the Lower Ohio Valley and continue clearing skies from the west, but as the clearing nears our eastern counties, return flow is expected to lift cloud cover into southern Kentucky from Tennessee. Tomorrow, with the low pressure system off to our east, light southerly winds set up over the CWA with west-southwest flow aloft. The light warm air advection and sunshine is expected to lift temperatures into the low 70s along and north of the Ohio River while areas to the south see the upper 60s to near 70.
328 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 (Issued 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Southwest winds will become light tonight with a weak cold front moving through late tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be cooler in the 50s with winds from the northwest and cloudy skies.
The upper low is located in Alabama and slowly continues to move east. There continues to be some residual moisture on the backside of the low, with very light rain and drizzle falling. The low will continue to move eastward through the afternoon hours. /15/ Prior discussion below: Today through Tonight: A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin and drift slowly east today. On and off sprinkles will still be possible into the daytime, with the chances gradually following the low to the east. Temperatures should rise generally into the mid 60s this afternoon, but a few spots in northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas could hit the low 70s if the clouds thin out heading into the daytime.
343 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Light rain departs the area this afternoon and we continue with warmer temperatures. Areas under clear skies have seen their temperatures quickly climb into the low 50s in north-central MN, but cloud cover elsewhere will keep temperatures somewhat moderated in the 40s. Cloud cover returns tonight across much of the area as the low to our north migrates east and we receive some of the wrap-around moisture. Some very light snow/rain showers may be possible tomorrow as this area of low pressure exits the region. Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s are likely to continue this week, but overnight temperatures should go below freezing for most after tonight.
Currently, high pressure across northern Arkansas southward toward the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with no more rain expected. Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Ahead of the low, showers and some thunderstorms will develop and move into the Mid-South mainly during the overnight period.
The upper level low centered over AL this morning will continue to progress eastward into Georgia by early this evening. For tonight, rain chances should come to an end by early this evening as the upper low moves on off to our east.
Storm intensity will become further limited as the boundary layer cools into early evening with activity gradually consolidating near the center of the upper low as it tracks across northeast Oklahoma into Missouri.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure will remain in control through Thursday night, with southeast winds becoming breezy on Thursday.
209 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected today through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
145 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Quiet weather is forecast tonight through Thursday as weak mid level ridging moves over the area. Weak return flow is already underway, and will continue as low pressure strengthens over the southern Plains Thursday.
Thursday a transient high pressure ridge will allow temperatures to rebound close to 50 for many valleys but will be short-lived.
This has promoted temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s and has kept dew points in the lower 70s. Looking at forecast soundings for this afternoon, it looks like the southerly wind flow in the lowest three thousand feet did provide enough of a stability cap that convection was not able to really get over. The deep layer ridge that was over the area has degraded and shifted east.
957 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Cooler air will work its way into the area today as high pressure works in from the west, resulting in a noticeable cooldown from yesterday. Even with the high pressure system building in, a few showers and even a rumble of thunder will be possible this afternoon and evening thanks to pop up showers. - Moldan 545 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 (16/12Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure begins to work in from the west.
356 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 For tonight, weak cold air advection as a mid and upper level trough moves across sern WY, CO and NM. mid and upper level moisture will increase across Nebraska tonight as the lower levels below 750mb remains fairly dry. Lows tonight based on the short term model blend in the lower to mid 30s. Thursday night, mostly clear with weak high pressure settling over the area. Lows in the low to mid 20s with the dry air in place and radiational cooling.
Overnight, attention across the broader region turns toward the mid/upper level trough swinging out of the Desert SW. Previously mentioned trough organizes across the Southern Plains for Thursday with perhaps enough northward lift to the right entrance region of the northern jet streak to allow for a bit of light rain/sprinkles across our Hwy 20 corridor counties of NW IA into Thursday night. Temperatures will end up cooler than today but still above normal in the 50s. Ridging reestablishes to our west into the weekend and will prolong the quiet period of dry conditions and mild temperatures. Soundings would suggest we mix to at least 850 mb Sat/Sun which would support warmer values and thus have nudged in this direction.
Despite the clouds temperatures have been able to climb into the lower 50s over much of the west half with even some downsloping locations along the Lake Superior shoreline over the east half reaching into the low 50s. Onshore southerly flow off Lake Michigan has kept temperatures a bit cooler in general over the east half with readings generally in the 40s. through early evening but otherwise dry conditions are expected under broad mid to upper level ridging.
1250 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska this morning and this afternoon. The temperature forecast today leans toward the warmer RAP and HRRR models for highs in the 50s to mid 60s. This forecast is warmer than the previous forecast but slightly cooler than the 50th percentile NBM forecast. The disturbance is the basis for the development of an upper low across the Texas Panhandle which the models have been advertising for several model runs.
432 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A weak upper level low and its associated surface system was location over the Deep South late today. Clouds will be slow to leave, but should give way to a good deal of sun during the day Thursday as ridging builds in surface and aloft. The extended will feature a couple of periods of active weather, during which a couple of low pressure systems will move across the region.
The warm front has lifted North of the area, and cold front is moving through. For Thursday, the high pressure ridge will be overhead, yielding a dry day with a sunny afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 will be common Thursday, with readings a little cooler at the coast.
* Temperatures tonight are uncertain in how much of the area gets below freezing. Thursday looks to be a bit cooler as cold air advection offsets the warming we received today.
409 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
217 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the region today bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through tonight.
Upped temperatures a tad to match warmer temperatures than expected. Temperatures remain above freezing for most of the area, so melting continues. Cooler air works into the area starting this afternoon as winds gradually become northwesterly. Looking into Thursday, highs will be slightly cooler than today, with highs in the 30s and continued quiet conditions.
A cold front continues to approach east central Florida and will pass through overnight tonight, before stalling across southern Florida into Thursday. Lows tonight will begin to see some influence from the approaching front, with cooler temperatures than this morning.
Otherwise, gusty northwest winds will decrease through 03Z and skies will become mostly clear after 03Z as a high pressure ridge moves into the area. - Moldan Beyond today/tonight, expect benign weather through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
805 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south and east of the area tonight into Thursday.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Weak cold front moves across the area this morning which will bring temperatures down about 10-15 degrees compared to yesterdays warm weather. Upper level ridging moves into the area Thursday and sticks around through the weekend.
The upper low continues to move well east of the area this afternoon. Residual clouds persist on the backside of the low, but are beginning to dissipate. High pressure will prevail on Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s for most of the area.
The core of a partially closed upper low is moving eastward across central Alabama this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have managed to develop under the upr low core and also along a low-lvl convergent axis on the NE-E periphery of the low.
Quiet weather is forecast tonight through Thursday as weak mid level ridging moves over the area. Weak return flow is already underway, and will continue as low pressure strengthens over the southern Plains Thursday.
A weak upper level low and its associated surface system was location over the Deep South late today. Clouds will be slow to leave, but should give way to a good deal of sun during the day Thursday as ridging builds in surface and aloft. The extended will feature a couple of periods of active weather, during which a couple of low pressure systems will move across the region.
SCT/BKN clouds over AEX/LFT/ARA continue to diminish as the upper low that moved through yesterday continues to exit the region.