Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across Pennsylvania late tonight and Monday. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday, than a warm front will lift into the region by midweek. The cold front is progged to push into the northwest mountains by dawn, introducing some slightly cooler air up there. Convection should ramp up along the cold front, as it pushes into southeast PA this afternoon, while drier/cooler air continues to filter into the northwestern counties. Although cloud cover should hold temperatures down, strong mid level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, should support organized convection and possible isolated supercells across parts of the Lower Susq Valley.
253 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern areas will continue to shift east through the morning as an upper low tracks east. Showers and thunderstorms begin to develop once again later this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in from the north. Additional showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread south late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in from the north.
Previous Discussion: Upper level Low currently over the Montana/Idaho border will push east southeast this afternoon, opening up into a weak wave as it does. Monday a cold front drops into the area from Canada dropping temperatures to the lower ends of the seasonal normal range by Tuesday. A large ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest from Tuesday into the weekend, putting our area under northwest flow aloft.
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through mid- day as a cold front crosses the North Country.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A broad ridge of high pressure, elongated across the Southern CONUS maintains warm and generally dry conditions through Tuesday. Near to slightly above normal highs and near normal lows continue triple digit heat along and west of I69C, with upper 90s to near 100 into the lower RGV. A weak TUTT low continues working inland, bringing a bit more divergence aloft toward the lower Texas coast this afternoon. The TUTT influence wanes into Tuesday, however, PWATs remain elevated and the ridge weakens slightly along the coast.
408 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions will continue to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
There is a possibility of an isolated shower over south central SD towards morning on Monday, though dry air in the low levels will keep any precipitation very light. On Tuesday, upper level energy begins to deepen over central Canada, with a surface reflection in the form of a cold front swinging through our CWA during the day.
1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front is making inroads into our forecast area early this afternoon with dry, northwesterly flow beginning to scour out our still fairly soupy airmass. Recent mesoanalysis and area soundings suggest some degree of capping will remain in place, especially north and west of I-55, through the afternoon thanks to a layer of warmer air aloft around 700 mb which suggests the thunder threat should remain fairly low. Farther south and east, temperatures aloft are cooler, although widespread cloud cover left over from morning convection has muted diurnal reductions in MLCIN. Somewhat cooler conditions will prevail on Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Upper ridging continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Cooler and Drier Today, chance of Rain Mid-week. North winds will bring a push of cooler and drier air with dew points finally falling back into the 50s today.
But with the mid/upper ridging building back into the state, these chances will be lower than the previous several days.
Weak upper level ridging will continue to build across the northern gulf tonight into tomorrow.
Temperatures today will be cooler given widespread cloud cover, mostly in the middle to upper 80s.
1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures.
As a cold front drops southward on Monday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 90 74 92 / 40 30 50 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 73 87 74 91 / 70 40 60 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 86 72 89 / 60 40 60 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 69 83 70 86 / 70 50 70 30 60.
The ridge of high pressure over the Keys has weakened and begun to lift north, resulting in an increase in winds. A plume of moisture ahead of a weak inverted trough near the Bahamas will filter into the Keys and southern Florida today and increase rain chances today through midweek.
A cold front remains well to our north through the first of the week.
Dry, cooler and less humid air will overspread the region today. A cold front continues to work its way east through northern Indiana at this time. Latest visible satellite imagery showing some agitation to linear cu field associated with low level convergence tied to cold front pushing east through extreme southwest Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, albeit still relatively shallow returns.
Clouds (and a few sprinkles) have persisted across much of northern Kansas into this afternoon, resulting in temperatures 20 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Exact location of heaviest precipitation is a bit uncertain, but ensembles favor areas between I-80 and the KS/NE state line to have the highest totals. Monday has continued to trend cooler as models indicate that clouds and possibly even some rain showers may hang around into the afternoon hours.
However, surface ridging building westward may yield a more southerly flow for a day or so, perhaps altering timing of storms slightly.
Attention then turns to the next potential for showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the region. Temperatures for the day will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
(Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
Temperatures will remain cooler, even below normal for higher elevations. Streamlines do begin to shift toward the end of the week, as high pressure develops over the NW Great Basin. Light winds away from storms with much cooler conditions overall.
213 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Anchored hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS will be the main feature around which everything else will move. Today and tonight: Surface cold front will begin moving across the region by the late morning and bringing some weak showers along with it through the afternoon and early evening.
250 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front of decent strength will be stretched across the CWA for the short term.
Hotter Monday and Tuesday after today's relatively cool upper trough to our north moves away, and the hot upper ridge to our south begins to migrate northward.
With the upper ridge in full control over the Southern Plains, high temperatures reaching or exceeding 103 will become more and more common today and tomorrow, particularly across North/Northwest Texas. The unfortunate side of the low humidity is the continued fire danger, even in the presence of modest wind speeds, since critical/extreme fuel conditions will support further wildfire ignition/spread.
Surface cold front has worked south into Central Missouri and is expected to stall near the I-44 corridor through the overnight. As the waves approach from the west, surface cyclogenesis is expected across western Kansas and the stalled boundary to the east is expected to to lift back to the north as a warm front. Northern Missouri is located on the nose of the low level jet Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially leading to another night of heavy rainfall. Potential for stratus across the area Tuesday morning, but as the day wears on, expect low level moisture to mix out to at least partial clearing leading to warmer conditions returning.
Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa should see the coolest conditions with afternoon highs likely wallowing in the lower 70s (15 to 20 degrees below seasonal averages). For areas closer to the NE/SD border, where less rain is expected, afternoon highs should reach the lower 80s. The Second Half of the Workweek: Our weather during this period should be dominated by a broad closed low over Central Canada.
When the period opens on Tuesday, there should be a cold front passing through the CWA.
At the surface, high pressure currently over the eastern Dakotas will get pushed east today as a frontal boundary sets up over western South Dakota before slowly working its way eastward tonight and Tuesday. Tuesday night, an upper level trough is slowly moving out of the region towards the east.
A few light showers around with a secondary push of cooler air today, should diminish along with the associated CU field this evening. Northwest winds should drop off and become light and variable overnight as high pressure moved overhead. The period starts with a surface boundary impacting the area with showers and a few storms, and cooler air filtering in as the system departs. The system departs by Tuesday night with Canadian high pressure sliding southeast. As the cooler air settles in for the following few days, high temperatures for the most part will be in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s.
With the upper ridge in full control over the Southern Plains, high temperatures reaching or exceeding 103 will become more and more common today and tomorrow, particularly across North/Northwest Texas. The unfortunate side of the low humidity is the continued fire danger, even in the presence of modest wind speeds, since critical/extreme fuel conditions will support further wildfire ignition/spread. The work week will be no exception to the triple digit heat as the upper level ridge extends east toward the Southeastern US.
Primary concerns in the short term forecast remain centered around the strength and location of an east-west oriented upper ridge, with 07z WV satellite suggesting this feature is currently centered over the Arklatex region. On the subject of precipitation, with various perturbations continuing to translate downstream in the belt of zonal flow aloft to our north, if the ridge axis becomes centered just a bit to the south, showers and thunderstorms could occur in our forecast area. Unfortunately, guidance, some sources of which had the ridge farther to the south in previous runs, have generally converged on a pattern where only the northern and western Panhandles look to have a shot at rain.
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today through early Tuesday.
TWH An upper low over western Montana will move east and provide an active 12-18 hours of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. %his, along with ascent from the upper low will be enough for thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) to develop. A cold front will push through the forecast area late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High temperatures on Monday will be cooler than today, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Continued the low chances of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area.
139 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across Pennsylvania late tonight and Monday. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday, than a warm front will lift into the region by midweek. Temps will stay up and above normal for one more night, but cooler air starts to filter into the northern third of the area overnight. Convection should ramp up along the cold front, as it pushes into southeast PA Monday afternoon, while drier/cooler air continues to take over across the northwestern counties. Although cloud cover should hold temperatures down, strong mid level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, should support organized convection and possible isolated supercells across parts of the Lower Susq Valley.
E-W oriented upper ridge pushes a little south as westerlies try to nudge south into TN Tues. We will remain situated between the Bermuda High over the Atlantic and ridging to our west over portions of the Southern Plains.
Still left VCTS starting around 18Z at the remainder of the sites with tempo mentions at KARA and KLFT that have the highest chances to see convection.
As for high temperatures on Monday, kept temperatures on the cooler side, with the coolest temperatures across north central Nebraska into central Nebraska, where cloud cover and lingering showers will keep temperatures even cooler in this location.
326 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A Canadian cold front will likely bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of North Central and Central by this afternoon, which will likely continue through much of tonight.
658 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cold front will continue to sweep across the area this morning. Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the front later today through Tuesday. Cold front is mostly south of the Niagara Frontier and will continue southeast this morning across the Finger Lakes. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward our region with skies becoming mostly sunny through the afternoon as comfortable levels of humidity returns. High pressure drifts across the region tonight into Tuesday, leading to dry weather and more comfortable conditions with lows tonight in the 50s and highs on Tuesday mid 70s to near 80. High pressure will continue to provide fair weather through Tuesday night.
Highs today will be around five degrees cooler than normal along with lighter winds than yesterday. Clouds should increase Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the Northern Plains. Moisture and instability are modest so do not expected severe storms with this cold front.
Forecast models continue to show high pressure dominating the forecast again today.
429 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Near record cool high temperatures expected today and then although warmer later this week, still below normal temperatures through the period. A cooler/wetter pattern is setting up across the local area as an upper level trough will be situated over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions through much of the week. This will allow cooler Canadian air to flow south into the northern and central plains.
Persistent marine layer clouds and fog will keep coastal areas seasonably cooler with only some limited afternoon sunshine.
Should the forecast coverage pan out today, drier air in the mid levels and cooler temperatures aloft could lead to the development of a few stronger storms, as the sea breeze pushes westward. Highs today in the lower 90s.
This process unfolding within prevailing low level northerly flow established immediately downstream of building high pressure tucked beneath slightly confluent mid level flow. Resident environment characterized both today and Tuesday by a more seasonable thermal profile and the lower humidity.
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Near record cool high temperatures expected today and then although warmer later this week, still below normal temperatures through the period. A cooler/wetter pattern is setting up across the local area as an upper level trough will be situated over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions through much of the week. This will allow cooler Canadian air to flow south into the northern and central plains.
The latest HRRR smoke forecast shows areas in the Motherlode and Sierra will likely see smoky conditions continue once again today with some clearing near the surface in the afternoon for the lower foothills. Ensembles and high resolution model guidance are in agreement a small low pressure currently off the central coast of California will make its way northward along the coast early this week. Very dry air in the lower levels will limit the potential for precipitation associated with any storms that may form. Overall chances remain low in the Valley with orographic lift boosting the potential for storms to develop over the higher elevations including the Sierra.
512 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A broken band of thunderstorms was draped along a cold front in the OH valley west through southeast MO. Highs will once again be in the lower 90s and middle to upper 80s in the higher plateau areas.
653 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today through early Tuesday.
Highs today will be slightly cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The current synoptic setup features high pressure centered over central NV with an upper level low off the central CA coast.
1033 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will move southeast and away from the area today, with the last of the spotty showers across the Southern Tier ending by midday. Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the front later today through Tuesday.
733 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through mid- day as a cold front crosses the North Country.
951 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today through early Tuesday.
852 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (Issued 852 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022) High pressure will remain in control across the region today, with low humidity and highs in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure is set to strengthen off the west coast today, beginning the warming trend for most of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies. Hot temperatures are expected this week as the high pressure ridge strengthens and slowly moves eastward.
651 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions will continue to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
The high is breaking down and elongating through southeastern states as expected.
Ridging remains to our north as we continue to see an east to southeast flow across the state. This means the highest rain shower chances again will be along the west coast in the evening hours as the east coast coast seabreeze reaches the western half of the state. However, surface ridging building westward may yield a more southerly flow for a day or so, perhaps altering timing of storms slightly.
While this may be a bit overdone due to the uncertainty surrounding how widespread convection may be each day, including how much cloud cover remains across the region along with where any outflow boundaries may potentially develop and where they may move, the high level of moisture across the region needs to be held in account as any storms that develop will have torrential downpours and could lead to flash flooding. Light winds away from storms with much cooler conditions overall.
617 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
517 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cold front will continue to sweep across the area early this morning. Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the front later today through Tuesday. Cold front is mostly south of the Niagara Frontier and will continue southeast this morning. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward our region with skies becoming mostly sunny through the afternoon as comfortable levels of humidity returns. High pressure drifts across the region tonight into Tuesday, leading to dry weather and more comfortable conditions with lows tonight in the 50s and highs on Tuesday mid 70s to near 80. High pressure will continue to provide fair weather through Tuesday night.
/issued 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ A stagnant, quiescent pattern to continue today as upper level high pressure will remain overhead as robust ridging holds in place from New Mexico to southern Appalachia. Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to persist through mid-week albeit longitudinally elongated as a large, mid/upper-level cyclone over south-central Canada modulates its amplitude. The center of the ridge will continue to drift eastward, which will position the core of the monsoonal fetch to the west and northwest of the CWA.
Temperatures will be much above normal this week, especially across the interior, with strong high pressure over the region. The coast will be cooler with onshore flow. Overall, expect cooler weather this weekend with a trough and stronger onshore flow.
559 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 VFR conditions should prevail through the period as high pressure settles across the area. Northwest winds will become gusty this afternoon to around 20 knots before going calm tonight under the ridge. This process unfolding within prevailing low level northerly flow established immediately downstream of building high pressure tucked beneath slightly confluent mid level flow. Resident environment characterized both today and Tuesday by a more seasonable thermal profile and the lower humidity.
Short range ensembles agree that Srn CA will be sandwiched between a weak upper low to the west and the western edge of a large upper high centered over Oklahoma through Tuesday.
Several of the high resolution models were struggling to initialize these small circulations, so not putting a lot of weight in the solutions for this evening. The focus will shift to a larger scale upper low/inverted trough tracking westward just south of the Texas Big Bend region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): As an inverted trough continues to move westward into Northeast Mexico today, the mid level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Southeast will take over and dominate the local weather through the rest of the short term. PoPs are even less on Tuesday as subsidence from the mid level ridge will make it even harder for convective initiation to get going.
Broad upper ridging remains over the southern CONUS with zonal flow present across the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure has settled into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley with the front that passed through yesterday having stalled across southern Kansas. This area missed out on the heaviest rains last night and FFG remains on the high side, so the flooding potential isn't overly concerning. The surface boundary lifts back north during the day Tuesday with temperatures warming into the low 90s south of the boundary while areas to the north remain in the 80s.
Hi-res guidance agree on the journey of weak low pressure system currently off the Central Coast that will make its way northward over the next day or two.
357 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will push southeast out of the area this evening, brining much drier air. High pressure will build in from the midwest for Tuesday.
The surface and upper level ridges have moved a bit further south so they will allow a bit more moisture to move into N GA through the short term than earlier expected. Temps Tonight and Tuesday night will dip down into the lower 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the NE GA mountains.
In the upper levels, broad low- amplitude ridging stretches across the Southeastern U. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
Otherwise, mid level ridging from the west and surface ridging from the southeast will remain dominant through Tuesday. This will result in a continuation of warmer than normal temperatures and humidity through the period. Heat indices so far this afternoon are between 105 and 110 degrees over portions of our delta region with heat index values in the lower 100s elsewhere.