Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A second cold front drops through the area this afternoon bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70. High pressure moves in behind the front this evening. High pressure and near average temperatures remain in place for the rest of the work week. High pressure will be nosing in from the north today. After a calm, mostly clear start, cumulus fields will form thanks to developing instability ahead of a second cold front. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday night. High pressure continues to move in from the north on Thursday.
Coverage has decreased so far overnight, and expecting this trend to continue as increasing subsidence builds in as high pressure shifts eastward into northern Ontario. As the high clears out the skies slowly this morning, expecting a reinforcing mesohigh should develop on Lake Superior. Lake Superior should help to moderate its lakeshore communities today, so daytime highs aren't expected to climb much higher then the low to mid 60s. Deterministic and ensemble models continue to highlight a period of benign weather from tonight through Thursday with high pressure both at the surface and aloft.
/issued 321 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ The upper ridge centered around the 4-corners early this morning will nudge to the east today along the 37th parallel. Thickness values will not increase much from yesterday despite increase heights from the ridge.
/Issued 441 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ A slow moving cold front located over far north Georgia this morning will slowly sag southward across the area today. A strong ridge bears down over the southwest while the western branch of the Bermuda High over the Atlantic will help pull deep atmospheric moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. As the center of the Bermuda High shifts eastward, a series of disturbances rounding the base of the 500mb trough extending from the Great Lakes Region will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area through the remainder of the period.
Water vapor satellite loop shows plenty of mid and high level moisture rotating around and through the west and northwest side of the upper high centered near the four corners. Highs Thursday will be a little cooler due to more cloud cover expected over the region. Ridging centered over the Four Corners region will continue through the period, with several disturbances keeping daily convection chances across portions of the area.
Dry conditions in addition to the winds will elevate fire danger, especially for the grasslands of the lower Columbia Basin and valleys in the lee of the Cascades. The arrival of an upper level trough by the end of the weekend may bring breezy winds and a few mountain showers. Wednesday: An upper level trough will move across British Columbia early Wednesday and send a weak cold front across Washington. High resolution models are in agreement that RHs will drop into the low teens in addition to sustained winds in the upper teens by this afternoon across the Cascade gaps and the western Basin. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler compared to yesterday, but will still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 953 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 An isolated shower or storm will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday with the higher chances on Thursday.
1015 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A secondary cold front with slightly drier air will swing into the northern counties this morning.
Aloft the ridge axis is located in eastern Montana and continues it's trek eastward. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the east, to the upper 80s in the west. Temperatures are warmer in the west due to the thermal ridge edging into western North Dakota today. Again, warmer temperatures are found across the west. The ridge axis will pass over this evening, along with a small disturbance in the flow. Thursday: Mostly zonal flow aloft atop a broad flattened ridge, and a thermal ridge will start to build in. Expect highs to be into the lower 90s.
Temperatures will not stray too far from the calculated normals, perhaps ending up a degree or two lower due to lingering troughing aloft.
433 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer today but remaining fairly comfortable thanks to lowish humidity. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today compared to yesterday, but dewpoints in the low 60s will keep heat indices essentially the same as the ambient temperature. Mid level ridging builds in tomorrow in association with a 596 dam 500 mb high centered over southeastern Colorado, ushering in the return of southerly low level flow. This will also signal the end of the cool 60 degree overnight periods with lows Thursday night back into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures also remain warm thru the week with most several degrees warmer than average. A stray wet storm or two are also possible, primarily over the higher terrain and near the eastern edge of the CWA where PWAT values are indicated to be slightly higher. Additionally, as a weak upper trof traverses the Pac NW, west/southwest gradient winds will become breezy Wednesday afternoon as gradients tighten between the trof and the four corners high situated to the southeast. Temperatures will again be warm both days with most highs in the low 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows look to be mostly in the low 50s to low 60s.
It will then continue its southerly push and eventually push into the deep south by Thursday morning before pushing back as a warm front to just south of TN/AL border by early Thursday evening. Highs on Thursday due to building ridging influences surface and aloft will generally rise a few degrees as compared to today's expected highs, but at least for locations west of Cumberland PLateau Region still range upper 80s to lower 90s, with highs now established in mid 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region.
431 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Upper level ridge continues to shift into the Northern Plains bringing warm temperatures and elevated fire weather concerns.
451 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Significant upper-level ridging will remain anchored over the Four Corners region over the next 24-48 hours with several disturbances expected to traverse the northern fringe of the ridge across south east Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle. Showers and storms could become a bit more numerous later Thursday as a more pronounced disturbance lifts northeast from the Great Basin along w/ a surface cold front pushing southward across the area.
Dry conditions in addition to the winds will elevate fire danger, especially for the grasslands of the lower Columbia Basin and valleys in the lee of the Cascades. The arrival of an upper level trough by the end of the weekend may bring breezy winds and a few mountain showers. Wednesday: An upper level trough will move across British Columbia early Wednesday and send a dry cold front across Washington. High resolution models are in agreement that RHs will drop into the low teens in addition to sustained winds in the upper teens by this afternoon across the Cascade gaps and the western Basin. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler compared to yesterday, but will still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 90 69 92 / 40 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 67 89 67 90 / 30 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 89 67 90 / 20 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 64 85 63 87 / 30 10 10 0 20.
714 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A secondary cold front with slightly drier air will swing into the northern territories this morning.
A weak clipper low pressure system was departing east central WI early this morning, with an associated cold front situated along Hwy 29, and sagging to the south. Low clouds should continue to push south with the cold frontal passage. The arrival of a Canadian air mass, morning clouds and northeast winds will lead to cooler temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 70s inland, and middle to upper 60s near Lake Michigan. Low temperatures will be quite cool tonight, ranging from the 40s north to the lower to middle 50s south and east.
NHC has decreased the chance of tropical development for the trough in the Gulf of Mexico to 10%. Have maintained slight PoPs over the Gulf Waters as a broad area of low pressure approaches the Middle Texas Coast Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler in the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads as the eastern periphery of the ridge weakens while a trough deepens southward from the NE CONUS.
This will also result in a slightly cooler day today over yesterday, w/thicknesses coming down a notch. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to elongate a bit west-to- east, increasing thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and bumping afternoon highs a degree or two up from today's.
934 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A second cold front drops through the area this afternoon bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70. High pressure moves in behind the front this evening. High pressure and near average temperatures remain in place for the rest of the work week. Severe threat is limited given the lower instability values that will be present this afternoon, along with marginal moisture content. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday night. High pressure continues to move in from the north on Thursday.
A potent upper trough is positioned over the Great Lakes region and progressing eastward. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the Four Corners region is beginning to strengthen and build eastward over the Central Plains.
Northwest flow aloft and ridging from the southeast will see continued dry conditions for much of the high plains.
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Our region will remain on the east side of a broad upper level ridge over the western half of the U. At the surface, high pressure currently centered near the western Great Lakes region will gradually be sliding east, moving over the northeastern U.
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 (Issued 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022) Tonight and Thursday: High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight and Thursday. Lows tonight will be cooler than the last couple days with lower dewpoints continuing to move in. Highs tomorrow will be a couple degrees shy of normal values inland and a bit cooler near the lake under onshore winds.
Upper air models show upper ridge over the lee side of the Rockies, that will slide over the northern plains today and Thursday.
This area, generally west of a YNG-ZZV line, will have access to slightly better lift and mid-level lapse rates than areas to the east as the vorticity maxima/trough axis arrive during the latter part of peak heating. A slightly cooler air mass will sink in from the north overnight, especially north of Pittsburgh. The lingering troughing pattern will help keep temperatures a notch below normal.
1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer today but remaining fairly comfortable thanks to lowish humidity. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today compared to yesterday, but dewpoints in the low 60s will keep heat indices essentially the same as the ambient temperature. Mid level ridging builds in tomorrow in association with a 596 dam 500 mb high centered over southeastern Colorado, ushering in the return of southerly low level flow. This will also signal the end of the cool 60 degree overnight periods with lows Thursday night back into the low to mid 70s.
(The rest of today ) A mid level ridge is centered over New Mexico this morning with a weakness in the height fields across western Oklahoma where a cluster of storms is ongoing near the 850 mb front.
An isolated shower/storm or two will also be possible across far southeast Oklahoma underneath a slight weakness in the upper ridge and along an elevated frontal boundary. Bowlan (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper ridge will begin to expand across the Southern Plains tomorrow and into the first part of the weekend.
255 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front will slowly drop into the area and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to parts of central Illinois late this afternoon through tonight.
1039 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Upper level ridge continues to shift into the Northern Plains bringing warm temperatures and elevated fire weather concerns.
1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Quiet conditions continue across the region, with current observations showing light and variable winds and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In regard to temperatures, have highs ranging from the lower 80s across SW Minnesota to lower 90s along the MO River Valley. Otherwise, expect lows to remain on the milder side, as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 60s. Could even see a few locations along the MO River rise into the lower 100s.
Kept the precipitation chances on the low end brushing into portions of northeast Iowa. High pressure dominating over much of the Upper Mississippi Region slowly edges eastward centering over Lake Superior by tomorrow mid afternoon. The upper level ridge axis currently extending from the high center over the Desert Southwest into central Canada is still shown to get flattened by short wave troughs topping the ridge and then moving east/southeast across the Great Lakes or Upper Mississippi River Valley. The first of these waves looks to flatten the ridge as it comes across Thursday.
The main effect of the TUTT will be to break down the mid/upper ridge enough that temperatures and heat indices may drop a degree or two.
The cold front to our north has become stationary in TN into eastern KY but should sag south through the area through this evening, and could serve as a focus for a few showers or thunderstorms as well. Patchy to areas of fog are likely to develop if the high clouds can thin out, especially where rain falls this afternoon and evening south of the TN River.
220 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Canadian high pressure north of Lake Superior will build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend to guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. The residual spotty shower activity late tonight into early Thursday will be mainly driven by the passing of the parent mid level trough.
312 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front will move into the area this evening, then stall across the region into the weekend becoming the focus for showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms have also been strong to severe in line with the SPC Marginal risk and the highest risk of severe weather remains south and east of the Columbia area. While there may be a break in the activity, will need to monitor convection along a cold front currently in the Upstate for possible impacts towards evening. Temperatures have been slow to warm today due to the abundant cloudiness and rain so have dropped highs into the lower to mid 80s for most locations. The clouds remain in place tonight so temperatures should only fall into the lower to mid 70s by daybreak.
High pressure settles in for the near term with highs in the 70s today and tomorrow.
204 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 While a strong ridge remains in place across the Northern Rockies, the axis is far enough east that the area is under southwesterly flow. Thursday should be cooler behind the weak disturbance today, which will knock 5 to 10 degrees off the highs. Reimer In general, upper ridging will prevail over the area through the period.
Recent mesoanalysis shows a widespread area of ~2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the high terrain to the south with extension back up into the southern Permian Basin. Highs this afternoon running slightly above normal areawide under a broad ridge encompassing the southern plains. Tomorrow will see a shift in convective potential towards a limited tag as the center of ridging across the Four Corners will expand eastward with 597dm ridge positioned over two-thirds of the region. This will provide sufficient mid-level capping to curb convective threat to nil or very isolated with the Davis Mtns and the Lower Trans Pecos the only locales that could muster something tomorrow afternoon. Lows will remain in the 70s outside the cooler spots in the Marfa Plateau that will radiate down into the 60s.
Reimer While a strong ridge remains in place across the Northern Rockies, the axis is far enough east that the area is under southwesterly flow. Thursday should be cooler behind the weak disturbance today, which will knock 5 to 10 degrees off the highs. Reimer In general, upper ridging will prevail over the area through the period.
Models show the upper high building a little further east into the region Thursday leading to hotter temperatures with triple digit high temperatures across most of the fa.
203 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A second cold front drops through the area this afternoon bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70. High pressure moves in behind the front this evening. High pressure and near average temperatures remain in place for the rest of the work week. Severe threat is limited given the lower instability values that will be present this afternoon, along with marginal moisture content. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday night. High pressure continues to move in from the north on Thursday.
234 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Canadian high pressure north of Lake Superior will build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend to guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. The residual spotty shower activity late tonight into early Thursday will be mainly driven by the passing of the parent mid level trough.
146 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 An isolated shower or storm will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday with the higher chances on Thursday. For tonight, a trough will swing east with a more substantive push of cold advection. Behind the trough, decent lapse rates should produce about 500 J/kg of CAPE with diurnal destabilization which should allow for some isolated activity in the afternoon. Highs only in the low to mid 70s.
1054 AM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Breezy winds and dry conditions are expected today which will elevate fire danger, especially for the grasslands of the lower Columbia Basin and valleys in the lee of the Cascades. The arrival of an upper level trough by the end of the weekend may bring breezy winds and a few mountain showers. Elsewhere temperatures will see another day of warming as we soar into the low to mid 90Fs for temperatures.
At the surface, the front/trough is situated across north GA.
Cooler and drier weather is expected as we head into the weekend.
This deep moisture has helped showers and storms fire off the higher terrain late this morning. A trough off the West Coast will push inland by Thursday morning, helping to shift the high overhead ever so slightly to the east.
/Issued 230 AM MST Wed Jul 13/ Broad high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to drive afternoon highs to several degrees above average through at least the weekend.
354 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A slow moving cold front over north Mississippi will continue moving southward tonight before dissipating on Thursday. A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies over the next several days while a weak trough extends from the north into the SE US.
High pressure will slowly filter into north and central sections. Drier air will continue to filter in across the northern half of the state today in the wake of the cold front.
This disturbance is expected to move around the eastern side of the high and the southwest as it moves over Texas tomorrow.
On Thursday, high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow increases behind the departing high. With the southerly flow and WAA, temperatures and dewpoints will be on the rise wiht highs in the 80s to near 90 near the Buffalo Ridge with dewpoints rising into the 60s.
246 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The early afternoon GOES-W WV imagery showed the upper level ridge centered from the Four Corners through WY and central/eastern MT. Subtropical moisture and instability was confined west of the trough, with isolated to scattered convection developing over and west of the Laramie Range. The position of the upper level ridge will move little over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Still fairly quiet into tonight as the upper ridge axis moves over the Eastern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will move east and a weak trough will develop over eastern MT. Ridging continues in the mid and upper levels for the forecast period. Warmer temperatures will also continue in the forecast. A ridge we've been dealing with for a few days now will continue to intensify over the SW US.
An upper- level wave evident on water vapor imagery will continue to slide across southern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes tonight as ridging pivots into the upper Midwest. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Troughing vacating the Great Lakes will pivot over New England to close out the week, placing upper-level subsidence squarely over the Great Lakes.
In the wake of these showers and storms, temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than what is seen today.
1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Significant upper-level ridging will remain anchored over the Four Corners region over the next 24-48 hours with several disturbances expected to traverse the northern fringe of the ridge across south east Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle. Showers and storms could become a bit more numerous later Thursday as a more pronounced disturbance lifts northeast from the Great Basin along w/ a surface cold front pushing southward across the area.
122 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Canadian high pressure north of Lake Superior will build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend to guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. The residual spotty shower activity late tonight into early Thursday will be mainly driven by the passing of the parent mid level trough.
Daytime heating will support deeper development this afternoon, especially across the higher terrain of southwest Idaho.
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 (The rest of today ) A mid level ridge is centered over New Mexico this morning with a weakness in the height fields across western Oklahoma where a cluster of storms is ongoing near the 850 mb front.
But given the north to northeast flow around the high to our northwest, it will be tough to get any mountain convection over into our area.
The upper level ridge of high pressure off to the west is progged to build over this region during the next 24 hours, advecting some warmer low level and mid-level air over the CWA. With the low level jet that develops over the region later tonight, convection that forms/moves over eastern Montana and western North Dakota tonight has a better chance of holding together into Thursday morning on the nose of the low level jet while it is pointed up into North Dakota.
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to result in above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend.
A weak ridge remains in place across central FL with onshore flow increasing to around 15 kts this afternoon.
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A potent upper trough is positioned over the Great Lakes region and progressing eastward. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the Four Corners region is beginning to strengthen and build eastward over the Central Plains.
High pressure then builds in tonight and Thursday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the low 70s beneath generally overcast skies with low stratus clouds building in behind the departing convection.
Canadian high pressure will then build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend to guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. The large-scale synoptic trough axis will finally swing through the region Thursday. A few pop-up showers will be possible as it comes through, though expansive high pressure building across the entire Great Lakes region will keep the majority of the forecast area high and dry. Temps will range in the 50s, with upper 50s near the lakeshores to low 50s up on the higher terrain, a few 40 degree readings not out of the question.