Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A trough diving through the Great Basin today and into Colorado tonight will bring very windy and dry conditions to the region. Minor height falls and forcing along the trough axis may bring some shallow, mid-level convection and VIRGA to the northern Arizona border. Less wind and a bit warmer for Monday.
With ample sunshine available, temperatures have already been able to climb into the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.
Chances for come convection return late in the TAF period for portions of WRN into NWRN AR as a warm front lifts north across the state. with a cold front continuing to slowly drop SE across SERN AR. Cooler. but lift back north across the CWA late tonight into Mon as a warm front. With the warm front lifting north late tonight into Mon. A new cold front will approach from the NW late Mon night. a few strong to SVR storms may be seen Mon night ahead of the cold front across NWRN/NRN AR.
Coastal Volusia will again have the lowest rain chances, less than 20 percent. SE pressure gradient around Atlc high pressure will support 8-12kts of wind.
501 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Wet weather continues overnight with both surface obs & surface obs clearly showing the center of a large low cyclone spinning over the Minnesota/Wisconsin border.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way through central Indiana as the cold front pushes eastward. In the wake of the front ridging will move in aloft with high pressure at the surface allowing for subsidence and dry air for the remainder of the short term. Expect a brief period of mostly clear skies this morning while the area sits within the dry slot, but clouds should move back in for the rest of the day as moisture on the backside of the low makes an appearance. Highs across the area today will vary from the low 60s in the NW to low 70s in the SE as the NW will see more cold air advection than the rest of the area.
444 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A poorly defined cold front over the region is making its transition across the mountains. As surface ridging builds in from the southwest, skies will clear and winds will diminish this evening, and that scenario holds through the day Monday. A bit of a ridge/valley temperature difference may develop during the night after winds diminish. Full sun will give a sizable warm-up on Monday as a progressive, weak upper level ridge builds in from the west. This pulls today's cold front back northward into our area as a warm front. With warm air advection ongoing, the setup will favor larger ridge/valley temperature differences developing. It's unclear if this will persist all night, or if clouds will thicken enough and soon enough, and low level flow strengthen enough, to cause the ridge/valley differences to fade overnight.
134 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front will move across the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a few severe storms possible in the afternoon and evening.
Southwest winds are already beginning to mix down with gusts 30-35 mph across the high terrain. Areas of blowing dust will be possible in the lower elevations. A trough diving through the Great Basin today and into Colorado tonight will bring very windy and dry conditions to the region. Minor height falls and forcing along the trough axis may bring some shallow, mid-level convection and VIRGA to the northern Arizona border. Less wind and a bit warmer for Monday.
The eastern low will move northeast with the trough axis passing across the area tonight. Expecting the low to gradually weaken and devolve into an open wave during its exit, which will result in the scattering of shower activity. The low may provide a brief enhancement to shower activity in the west late this afternoon, but overall activity will be light and scatter out as it progresses eastward this evening.
1130 AM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Water vapor shows upper low moving into the western Great Lakes with another upper low moving into the Great Basin. Great Basin upper low tracks across the central Rockies tonight and into the Central Plains Monday. The exception is for the higher terrain of the Black Hills and the Pine Ridge along the Nebraska border where a transition to snow is possible on Monday.
The eve update included cosmetic adjustments to POPs and Weather as the initial convective wave has shifted east of the ridges as per warm frontal and differential vorticity progress. Precip chances will decrease early Monday morning with the passage of a cold front and a closed upper-level low becomes an open wave over Quebec and tracks into northern New England. Monday night is expected to be quiet and dry as a ridge builds across the Ohio River Valley in response to a developing disturbance east of the Rockies.
That means more nights in the middle to upper 70s and daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s.
One change in the forecast is the track of the low pressure system expected to begin spreading precipitation by Monday night. Recent forecast trends now have the low circulating further south than previous forecasts, keeping precipitation more focused across southern Idaho County and all of Lemhi County, Idaho.
248 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 A Pacific trough continues to move across Utah this afternoon. Expect precipitation to develop and increase as the trough moves across the forecast area this evening. Expect impacts to remain minor with snow accumulations in the sub-advisory range over the higher terrain. Conditions will improve on Monday as a transitory ridge brings drier conditions and seasonably cool temperatures to the forecast area.
Cyclonic flow around the low resulted in overcast skies, and combined with cold air advection made for a rather blustery day for May.
At the surface, southeasterly winds are covering most of the plains and there is a Denver Cyclone in place. Models are still showing the upper closed low to move right across the CWA late tonight through Monday noon time. The storm system exits stage right into Nebraska by Monday evening leaving Colorado under ridging high pressure with a drying and subsident airmass during the night.
A warm front moving northward across the Concho Valley has increased low level moisture across the area.
(Through tonight ) Dry and stable airmass resides over the area this afternoon, but moisture surging north quickly across the high plains to our west in response to upper low moving across the Great Basin. Resulting convection across TX/OK panhandle region early this evening will continue to expand overnight, primarily north of warm front as low level jet/ warm advection pattern becomes established. Higher confidence remains in storms developing along surging cold front late Monday evening across northeast OK and northwest AR, with possible MCS development and enhanced severe wind threat.
The mid/upper-level trough is forecast to pivot over the central Great Plains by tomorrow afternoon, with the dryline mixing east of the 100th meridian by midday.
308 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area for the next few days, with SE flow turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon.
/AJ/ A weak cold frontal boundary located around northwest/north- central MS is expected to stall during the course of today. /AJ/ Prior discussion below: In the short-term, the focus is on a few clusters of thunderstorms which developed along a cold front yesterday evening and overnight. Showers will remain possible across the far northwest Monday night as a cold front begins to approach the area.
The cold front is making its passage across the remainder of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile of western Ky. High temps will be in the low to mid 70s with plenty of sunshine. Upper heights rise/ridge in a teleconnected response between the departing/flattening trof in the Great Lakes, and the newly developing system spilling into the Plains from the Rockies.
At the same time an upper level low will move northeast out of Colorado into Nebraska. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 30s to 40s, and although the maximum temperatures will occur early in the day, afternoon temperatures will still be above freezing for the most part. Any snow that falls will be heavy and wet, the highest snow ratios are between 6 and 7.
By late tonight into tomorrow morning, the boundary is expected to lift north out of the ArkLaMiss region as an approaching low pressure system swings out of the Southern Plains. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances once again on Monday morning, with the highest chances being north of I-20 and progressively increasing towards the east throughout the late morning/afternoon.
Moisture from the departing area of low pressure will keep showers present across the eastern portion of the forecast area through the afternoon, with dry conditions returning this evening. The break will be brief as another area of low pressure will advance towards the area Monday morning. Gusty to windy conditions possible as the area of low pressure moves through the forecast area.
The cold front is over Western Tennessee this morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as the cold front moves closer. Instability is moderate over the region with dew points in the lower 60s and mesoanalysis shows CAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 63 86 65 / 10 10 20 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 82 60 85 63 / 20 0 20 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 53 82 59 85 63 / 10 0 20 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 78 55 83 60 / 40 0 0 50 60.
Despite this, a glance just upstream over the Pacific shows noticeable troughing extending south from the Gulf of Alaska. In general, expect mostly cloudy conditions today with highs ranging from around 60 to the lower 60s, with rain chances increasing mid-late evening along the Coast and into Puget Sound early Monday morning. Weak high pressure over the region today for a dry and milder day across Western Washington.
246 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Low pressure centered over Wisconsin is creating a tight pressure gradient over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The gradient will weaken tonight as a short wave trough moves from eastern Nevada across the Rockies into Colorado, and forces low level cyclogenesis. The low will move from eastern Colorado across Kansas into Missouri by Monday night. Return flow ahead of the low will bring another slug of moist and unstable air back into Missouri and Illinois by late Monday into Monday night resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms for the region.
At the same time, high pressure in the Western Atlantic will continue to recede to the east. Most of the moisture will be confined to the lower levels, so showers and thunderstorms may be limited in vertical height due to the drier air aloft.
The rest of today will be characterized by VFR conditions with the low probability of TSRA on station as scattered storms possibly develop.
Rain chances will be lower on Monday due to less forcing and stronger upper ridging with only isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly northern portions of the area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
302 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Weak high pressure will move across the area tonight.
Bulk shear is also on the low side but effective shear is creeping up into the moderate range. Dry high pressure and a short wave ridge build over the area Monday.
222 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will move into the Midwest tonight and Monday, bringing quiet weather and cool temperatures.
surface destabilization was delayed a bit today and convective initialization became offset into regions which were less impacted by the high clouds. weak front becomes diffuse as weak mid level ridging to slightly SW flow aloft develops over the area ahead of a deepening trough over the western and central US.
Low to mid-level cyclonic flow lingers in the wake of our departing low pressure system overnight and into Monday morning, keeping clouds in place. Light drizzle/showers should depart the region by this evening with the low. Even as low clouds begin to clear out Monday afternoon, additional mid to high clouds will be streaming in from the southwest as the next of three waves within this mean longwave trough approaches from the High Plains.
310 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures rising above normal.
(This evening through Monday) The main focus today and tonight will be with potential for convection and heavy rainfall as a warm front lifts northward across the area this evening and overnight. Additional storms are then possible through the evening both along the warm front and as storms push into our area from the Texas panhandle. A low tornado risk will also exist across southwest Oklahoma and especially our western north Texas counties in the vicinity of the warm front where low-level shear will be maximized this afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front lifting north will be followed by a relatively brief break with convection beginning again later this afternoon as sfc based instability increases ahead of a cold front. Precip chances will decrease early Monday morning with the passage of a cold front and a closed upper-level low becomes an open wave over Quebec and tracks into northern New England. Monday night is expected to be quiet and dry as a ridge builds across the Ohio River Valley in response to a developing disturbance east of the Rockies.
1215 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Wet weather continues overnight with both surface obs & satellite imagery clearly showing the center of a large low cyclone spinning over the Minnesota/Wisconsin border.
300 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front remains draped over northwest Alabama this afternoon, but will make very little progress through the rest of the area. The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the area during the overnight hours, with drier and cooler air filtering into the area. This will help overnight lows fall into the lower to mid 50s by daybreak on Monday. An upper trough and closed low will move into the Plains on Monday, with a weak ridge building over the TN Valley. Ahead of this, the cold front that moves through overnight will lift northward, with southerly flow returning moisture into the region.
134 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front moves across today with strong to severe storms possible. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Drier air will move into the region behind the cold front with a high pressure system building in tonight and Monday. This high will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Quiet weather is expected Monday with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s as transient ridging briefly builds.
Latest surface analysis shows an occluded low pressure system centered over WI with the Commonwealth bifurcated by the cold front. Regional observations also report falling dew points behind the front with readings dropping from the low 60s across the east half of KY to the low 50s to the west. The cold front that brought us our overnight storms will push convection off to the east this morning, followed quickly by mostly sunny skies this afternoon. just a couple degrees cooler than normal.
By this time, a surface warm front will have lifted through parts of the Midsouth, returning lower to mid 60s dewpoints following passage. The high CAPE, marginal shear environment will likely lead to a marginal severe hail and damaging wind threat, favoring the daylight hours along and south of I-40.
Isolated showers may continue in the higher elevations until around midnight. The cold front is west of Nashville and starting to move into Middle Tennessee. A few showers may linger in the higher elevations until around midnight. Tomorrow will be dry with a ridge building into the region.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure sits across northern Wisconsin with an occluded front essentially draped from near TVC southeastward toward Gladwin. This boundary will continue to shift north across the forecast area through this evening while the low pressure center drifts to north-central Ontario by 12z Monday.
A little warmer on Monday then much warmer by midweek. An upper low is currently moving over the Great Basin with the biggest impact for our area being windy conditions along the Mojave Desert Slopes. The low has also ushered in a cooler air mass with 24 hour trends indicating temperatures are running down 4 to 8 degrees. Short wave ridging will move over the region tonight leading to modest warming with slightly above normal temperatures on Monday.
153 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front moves across today with strong to severe storms possible. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Drier air will move into the region behind the cold front with a high pressure system building in tonight and Monday. This high will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
Water vapour matinee had upper low over northeast NV/northwest UT border.
Still thinking that some snow flakes will mix in with the rain during the initial onset of precipitation over the higher elevations of south central South Dakota, but will transition to rain as warm air advection intensifies aloft. Ensembles remain in good agreement that the bulk of precipitation will fall along and south of highway 18, with the highest accumulations of 0. Winds will be weaker with this system with gusts into the 20s mainly along the highway 20 corridor.
Bulk shear is also on the low side but effective shear is creeping up into the moderate range. Dry high pressure and a short wave ridge build over the area Monday. A frontal zone pushes southeast early Mon while upper heights rise and stg ridging builds atop the FA. The weather becomes more active Mon night into Tue with a warm front impinging upon the area and crossing north. A couple relatively weak sfc fronts approach and stall over the FA thru the period as they run into an Atl ridge. With the llvl flow remaining generally sw/ly, expect weak waa and good insol to allow for max/min temps well abv normal, with cooler temps possible over the weekend behind a FROPA.
The low clouds over eastern SD are forecast to gradually dissipate this evening, but more mid and high clouds are expected to advect into the region overnight.
900 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will move into the Midwest tonight and Monday, bringing quiet weather and cool temperatures.
The latest mesoscale model guidance indicates that a line of thunderstorms may form along parts of a cold front as it moves through eastern Oregon late tomorrow morning into early afternoon. As colder temperatures move in aloft as the upper low approaches, afternoon heating will result in CAPE values of 300 to 500 J/kg.
The only real difference today has been slightly drier air from Tampa Bay northward, and slightly warmer 500mb temperatures aloft.
535 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 A Pacific trough continues to move across Utah this afternoon. Expect precipitation to develop and increase as the trough moves across the forecast area this evening. Expect impacts to remain minor with snow accumulations in the sub-advisory range over the higher terrain. Conditions will improve on Monday as a transitory ridge brings drier conditions and seasonably cool temperatures to the forecast area.
Dry high pressure and a short wave ridge build over the area Monday.
High pressure over the western Atlantic, with the ridge axis just north of the local waters, will continue SSE/S flow through the night.
A Pacific trough continues to move across Utah this afternoon. Expect precipitation to develop and increase as the trough moves across the forecast area this evening. Expect impacts to remain minor with snow accumulations in the sub-advisory range over the higher terrain. Conditions will improve on Monday as a transitory ridge brings drier conditions and seasonably cool temperatures to the forecast area.
A weak cold frontal boundary remains stalled across northern portions of the area and is delineated more by a difference in dewpoint versus temperatures. By late tonight into tomorrow morning, the boundary is expected to lift north out of the ArkLaMiss region as an approaching low pressure system swings out of the Southern Plains. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances once again on Monday morning, with the highest chances being north of I-20 and progressively increasing towards the east throughout the late morning/afternoon.
602 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Weak high pressure will move across the area tonight.
The low clouds over eastern South Dakota are forecast to gradually dissipate this evening, but more mid and high clouds are expected to advect into the region overnight.
733 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front moves across today with strong to severe storms possible. Thinking that we will not have too worry much for anymore convection really other than possibly along the mountains for the next several hours as the cold front sweeps through. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Drier air will move into the region behind the cold front with a high pressure system building in tonight and Monday. This high will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
946 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 As of 9:40 PM CDT, a warm front is beginning to cross the I-20 corridor with waning seabreeze thunderstorm activity. As this convection completely dissipates, the warm front will continue northward, approaching the I-30 corridor overnight. Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the position of the warm frontal boundary and precipitation distribution as moist Gulf air continues to return northward across the Ark-La-Tex. /issued 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022/ For the 02/00Z TAF update, winds from the south will gradually return as a warm front proceeds northward.
859 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 The cold front has inched it's way across the forecast area today and is currently draped across NE AL. Overnight lows will be several degrees cooler than last night with temperatures falling into the low/mid 50s. An upper trough and closed low will move into the Plains on Monday, with a weak ridge building over the TN Valley. Ahead of this, the cold front that moves through overnight will lift northward, with southerly flow returning moisture into the region.
752 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures rising above normal.
626 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will move into the Midwest tonight and Monday, bringing quiet weather and cool temperatures.
The rest of the night and into tomorrow morning, a few showers may develop over the local waters and the upper Keys due to the high moisture content.
654 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front moves across today with strong to severe storms possible. Thinking that we will not have too worry much for anymore convection really other than possibly along the mountains for the next several hours as the cold front sweeps through. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Drier air will move into the region behind the cold front with a high pressure system building in tonight and Monday. This high will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
This activity will continue to gradually expand in coverage overnight as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east, with showers/storms impacting portions of eastern OK toward 07-08Z. Higher confidence remains in storms developing along surging cold front late Monday evening across northeast OK and northwest AR, with possible MCS development and enhanced severe wind threat.