Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These storms will fire in the warm sector ahead of a cold front, which was between KJYR and KLNK, and between KTQE and KSUX.
For Memorial Day tomorrow, we will be stuck in between an upper level low to our west and a ridge to our east. We will see daytime highs reach the upper 80s with heat index values pushing into the lower 90s.
136 PM MST Sun May 24 2020 A return to above normal temperatures is expected Monday as high pressure builds across the Great Basin.
Temperatures will continue to be warmer today. /Issued 332 AM PDT Sun May 24 2020/ Upper level ridging will continue building into the area today into Monday. The ridge axis will flatten as the frontal system moves inland to the north on Monday.
High pressure will generally remain over the area through the middle parts of the week. Will keep chance PoPs going until about 250400Z, with the highest PoPs in the west closest to the vorticity center, and cut them off after that as the mid level feature drifts off to the north. Otherwise, models suggest an upper low will cutoff over the southern Plains by the middle of the week, as strong upper ridging develops over the East Coast.
The culprits are a strong frontal zone approaching from the northwest, in concert with a deep western CONUS trough approaching slowly from the west, amidst a moist/unstable/weakly capped airmass.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s to lower 60s overnight as slightly cooler air moves in aloft. Although deep layer shear will be stronger on Monday, a mostly saturated atmospheric profile in cooler air behind the sfc boundary will only allow for weak daytime destabilization. With cloudy skies and cooler air aloft, Monday will be a bit cooler than Sunday with highs ranging from the 60s (west) to mid 70s (east).
1228 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Another warm afternoon is in store for the Missouri Ozarks as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s today. Looking ahead to Monday, we will see the return of showers and thunderstorms to region by the afternoon hours as the broad trough begins to settle into the Southern Plains region.
Warmer, zonal flow aloft will dominate the first half of the week.
1115 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Local 88Ds show convection steadily increasing in coverage across the area as temperatures reach the lower 80s convective temps noted in regional 12z soundings. This transport of air along with a longwave trof that extends down the eastern slopes of the rockies will have a series of impulses lifting out of the base and transported into Texas and Louisiana today. Temperatures will moderate as clouds and rain cooled air will keep the region about three to five degrees cooler.
345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic with srly low-level winds continuing to moisten our airmass as latest obs show dewpoints lingering in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Water vapor imagery/12z upper air analysis shows one mid/upper-level low over the cntl Gulf, while troffing is noted from the nrn Plains through the spine of the Rockies to the srn Plains/Gulf. Add to it daytime heating and occasional disturbances rounding the trof and rain chances look to remain on the high side for the next several days.
The pattern will remain rather stagnant over our area for the short term period as we continue to be on the western side of the Eastern US ridge. Will go with a mostly persistence forecast overall, keeping the better coverage of mainly afternoon/early evening showers and storms over the higher terrain areas of the Northern Plateau, SW VA, SW NC and our eastern TN mountains. Monday night a deep upper trough will be in the process of becoming a cutoff low over the southern plains, with ridging downstream over the southeast and into the mid-Atlantic region.
an approaching warm front will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight. High pressure exiting to our east will equate to fair weather for most areas today. Warm front will push northward across our region tonight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s, perhaps a few degrees cooler.
309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Sharpening trough axis extending from a low across eastern MT is swinging into West Texas this afternoon. Modest speed max west of the trough suggests further entrenchment of the system over the next day or so. A cold front is expected to move through most of the FA by sunrise Monday morning offering cooler temperatures for Monday (and reduced instability. If clouds hold in as expected, highs on Monday will be a fair bit cooler than the past couple of days some areas in the northwest struggling to exit the 60s. By tomorrow afternoon the upper level trough axis will be directly overhead.
258 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020 Upper trough swinging through Colorado this afternoon, with fairly widespread -shra/tsra over the central/ern mountains and I-25 corridor as of 2130z. Most stronger convection congeals into some sort of MCS this evening, with activity slowly pushing into KS overnight, though at least isolated showers may linger over much of the area into Mon morning as upper trough is still overhead. By Monday afternoon, trough ends up near the KS border by afternoon, with only weak upward motion across the area. Max temps cooler area- wide as precip/clouds/caa hold readings down.
Upper low over the northern Rockies within larger trough across the Rockies will be slowly pulling northward through the next 24-36 hrs.
209 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms.
1112 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 The upper low will remain over southeastern Montana today with an upper trough extending southward across eastern Wyoming. Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are expected today into this evening due to the proximity of the upper low and instability enhanced by diurnal heating and cold advection aloft. Although much of the area will see dry weather on Monday, there is a chance of afternoon showers over the Black Hills, with showers and thunderstorms possible over parts of southwestern into south central South Dakota in active southwesterly flow aloft, to the east of the upper trough.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the Big Country tomorrow afternoon, then continue slowly south across the remainder of the forecast area during evening hours. The front, along with support from an upper trough entering West Texas, will result in additional thunderstorm development tomorrow. A very unstable airmass will be in place south of the cold front, with large hail and damaging winds a concern once again. In addition, cannot rule out a tornado or two, primarily across southern sections where backed low level flow will occur ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will be cooler for Memorial day, with highs ranging from the upper 70s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 80s elsewhere.
Upper low spinning along the Montana/Wyoming border with impulses lifting through the central plains. Upper trof lingers across the area Monday, with breezy conditions on the plains.
236 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Sharpening trough axis extending from a low across eastern MT is swinging into West Texas this afternoon. Modest speed max west of the trough suggests further entrenchment of the system over the next day or so. A cold front is expected to move through most of the FA by sunrise Monday morning offering cooler temperatures for Monday (and reduced instability. If clouds hold in as expected, highs on Monday will be a fair bit cooler than the past couple of days some areas in the northwest struggling to exit the 60s. By tomorrow afternoon the upper level trough axis will be directly overhead.
A strong area of high pressure will move into the area from the west, leading to a warming trend this holiday weekend.
1200 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A cold front will move through today and usher in some lower humidity.
A cold front is edging southeast stretching from south central Minnesota, southwest into northern Nebraska. Also, with the lower levels possibly being well mixed early this evening as the storms move in, localized damaging winds could be a concern early on.
A cold front will be nearing MAF/HOB at the end or near the end of the forecast period. /issued 321 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/ An upper trough extending from MT to Mexico will slowly move east crossing the Central Rockies tonight.
Persistent northerly breezes will continue on Memorial Day, primarily in the lower Colorado River Valley.
306 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Onshore flow will persist through Monday keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas. High pressure builds over the East Coast leading to a significant warm up for the middle of the week.
Think clouds will be more prevalent through at least tomorrow morning given the proximity of the closed upper low. The main upper low moves into North Dakota on Monday, leading to some lingering wrap around showers mainly over the central and east.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected Monday as high pressure builds across the Great Basin.
Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow and for the week ahead as ridging begins to take a hold.
Back end of trof passage will be between 12-18z Monday morning with increasing subsident flow and drying airmass. Cameras and reports indicate that indeed snow is falling in the higher mountains. Models show the upper trough axis to move slowly eastward across the CWA to the eastern Colorado border at 00Z late Monday afternoon. The low level wind fields show some weak drainage flow mixed with downsloping overnight. Will go with "chance"s mainly over the high country Monday afternoon. For temperatures Monday's highs will be 0-3 C warmer than today's. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the region from the west through the week, with a dry northwest to westerly flow over Colorado.
/issued 345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic with srly low-level winds continuing to moisten our airmass as latest obs show dewpoints lingering in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Water vapor imagery/12z upper air analysis shows one mid/upper-level low over the cntl Gulf, while troffing is noted from the nrn Plains through the spine of the Rockies to the srn Plains/Gulf. Add to it daytime heating and occasional disturbances rounding the trof and rain chances look to remain on the high side for the next several days.
High pressure will generally remain over the area through the middle parts of the week. Muggy night in progress with 02Z temperatures ranging from near 70 where it had rained to the lower 80s where it had not. Otherwise, models suggest an upper low will cutoff over the southern Plains by the middle of the week, as strong upper ridging develops over the East Coast.
Interestingly though, diagnosis of mid level RAP fields does show proper placement of the closed low, and positive vorticity advection in the RAP matches well with observed reflectivity. Think clouds will be more prevalent through at least tomorrow morning given the proximity of the closed upper low. The main upper low moves into North Dakota on Monday, leading to some lingering wrap around showers mainly over the central and east.
A significant warming trend is expected through the week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the Great Basin. The upper trough that brought the cooler weather to Utah the past couple of days has moved east of the area, with Utah remaining under a north-northwesterly flow aloft. An upstream ridge will slowly build into the western CONUS and Great Basin through the week, with temperatures trending higher each day.
However, given guidance has been a bit overcooked on coverage the past couple of days, have lowered pops a bit from the previous forecast to be on the lower end of the ensemble guidance.
804 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Latest model guidance suggests that a 500-mb ridge building northwestward into the southern Mid-Atlantic states will remain the dominant influence on local weather conditions overnight. As flow aloft backs to the south along the western rim of the ridge, a gradual increase in mid/high-level clouds can be expected after Midnight, and this should confine the threat for patchy fog to the larger river valleys of northeast AL early Monday morning. For Memorial Day tomorrow, we will be stuck in between an upper level low to our west and a ridge to our east. We will see daytime highs reach the upper 80s with heat index values pushing into the lower 90s.
An MCV continues to move out of northeast KS this afternoon, while a cold front bisects the remainder of the forecast area. Farther north, along the stalled cold front, there is a small chance that a couple of strong storms could develop along strengthening cumulus west and southwest of Lincoln.
310 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020 Precipitation coverage will decrease through the rest of the evening as the upper low over our region slowly slides to the east. There is a chance fog may become dense and widespreading some areas, but confidence is not high enough yet as upper low is drifting quite slow and lingering cloud cover may prevent widespread development. For Memorial Day, the upper low will finally exit to the Dakotas and upper ridging will build over the Northern Rockies. Westerly flow in the mid levels will help the mercury bounce back to around the lower 70s. There is a small fly in the warmer and drier ointment as a weak disturbance moving quickly eastward across Montana will bring scattered showers to the foothills and mountains west of Billings Monday night.
742 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A weak cold front will extend from Pennsylvania into the Carolinas tonight and Monday.
Warmer high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are expected with 40s and 50s in the mountains. A robust warming and drying trend is expected this week as a ridge builds to the southwest.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 87 67 81 65 / 20 20 20 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 86 66 81 64 / 20 20 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 65 87 66 81 64 / 20 20 20 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 84 62 81 62 / 20 20 20 30 20.
844 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A trough of low pressure is developing across south FL this evening with areas of showers lifting up over the area from the south. A trough of low pressure is developing across south FL this evening, and is expected to lift north over the area through Monday night. High pressure builds back into the area behind this, with winds and seas subsiding through the rest of the period.
931 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure centered off the New England coast will remain wedged over the area through Memorial Day. The high will shift southward toward midweek before shifting further eastward into the Atlantic late in the work week.
Cameras and reports indicate that indeed snow is falling in the higher mountains. Models show the upper trough axis to move slowly eastward across the CWA to the eastern Colorado border at 00Z late Monday afternoon. The low level wind fields show some weak drainage flow mixed with downsloping overnight. Will go with "chance"s mainly over the high country Monday afternoon. For temperatures Monday's highs will be 0-3 C warmer than today's. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the region from the west through the week, with a dry northwest to westerly flow over Colorado.
The extensive convective complex that did spread into SE OK has also overturned a large portion the low level airmass and an aggressive outflow boundary has further advected notably drier low level air NNW.
These warming temperatures and generally dry weather are thanks to an area of high pressure that is continuing to build in over the west coast of the United States. This high pressure system will also allow the thermal trough to build, which could bring us some hot temperatures later this week. There are no huge changes to the forecast in this package, but there are a couple of things worth noting: The first is that a weak front moving over top the ridge on Monday will weaken the high pressure system. This, in turn, will prevent full development of the thermal trough. Thus, while we are expecting things to become much warmer than normal-- 10 to 15 degrees above normal in some places-- will hold off on issuing any heat-related headlines since the models and guidance are trending things somewhat cooler.
Expect even more convection to develop along a dryline and stalling cold front by late this afternoon over the panhandles, and then propagate eastward into our western zones. A break in precipitation may occur during the day for most of the area before the final, main upper trough axis and cold front again result in redevelopment shifting southward throughout the evening.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020/ Surface ridging builds into the state from the northeast overnight and persists through the period. Region remains on the southwestern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic Ocean/mid-Atlantic coast region.
/issued 309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020/ Sharpening trough axis extending from a low across eastern MT is swinging into West Texas this afternoon. Modest speed max west of the trough suggests further entrenchment of the system over the next day or so. A cold front is expected to move through most of the FA by sunrise Monday morning offering cooler temperatures for Monday (and reduced instability. If clouds hold in as expected, highs on Monday will be a fair bit cooler than the past couple of days some areas in the northwest struggling to exit the 60s. By tomorrow afternoon the upper level trough axis will be directly overhead.
Mid-upper trough axis over the Florida straits will lift north into north Fl on Monday spreading rain with isolated thunderstorms across ne Fl. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s. Temperatures on Monday will be held down due to cloud cover and rain with highs in the lower 80s over ne FL.
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG SHOWERS AND Currently - The combination of a trough in the southern stream in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overtop a surface and lower level trough has resulted in a very wet pattern across the Keys and surrounding waters. Flood advisories may later be required for portions of the island chain other than the ongoing one covering the Lower Keys from Big Coppitt through Cudjoe Key. High pressure along the eastern United States and a trough in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico will produce moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across Keys waters.
Surface wedge of high pressure is beginning to build into the area from the northeast and should persists most of the period. With the surface wedge building in from the NE and a wave moving in from the south, North and Central GA will be right in the middle and should see increased precip and cooler temps beginning tonight into Tues. Synoptically, The subtropical jet will be stationed along the US/Canada boarder with a cutoff, stacked low-pressure system slowly drifting across the Southern Plains through the rest of the week.
222 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Hazy, very warm, and humid for much of this week as summer- like upper level ridge builds into the region. Cold front late week. Upper level heights build slightly today as dirty ridge axis remains just east of the forecast area. Upper level ridging begins to break down and succumb to incoming moisture from the west Tuesday afternoon, but will ultimately prevail in keeping rain west of the Ohio River.
223 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected today under a ridge of high pressure before breezy to windy conditions a times develop tonight through Tuesday with a chance for mainly mountain showers, though a few lighter showers cannot be ruled out at times elsewhere. Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. Upper level ridge shifts east across the Northern Rockies and MT today before flattening tonight as a broadening large scale trough moves into western Canada. Breezy to windy conditions continue on Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
A deep upper level trough can be found across the Plains region and will be responsible for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week as the upper level low becomes cutoff. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday into the late week as the upper level low becomes cut off. By the weekend, ensemble guidance does suggest the slow dissipation of the upper level trough to our east. This will allow for upper level ridging over the region, bringing warmer temperatures and drier weather into the beginning of June.
441 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Under mostly cloudy skies and southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph, temperatures range from rain soaked lower to mid 70s in the Upper Keys to the mid and upper 70s in the Lower Keys. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate a weakly negatively tilted mid and upper level trough in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico will sharpen, as another impulse dives southeastward into the aforementioned large scale trough later today. With the strengthening trough, a low level trough (below 850 mb) reaching from the Southeast Gulf of Mexico into the Straits of Florida will lift northward through tonight. By late tonight into the middle of this week, the deep layered trough will lift northward as high pressure accompanied by drier air filters in from the east.
354 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over the area with high pressure off to the NE. Cooler temps today with ENE flow. Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in the low/mid 60s. Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin moves up the coast.
An upper trough currently extends near the Wyoming border south through central New Mexico. As the upper trough advances slowly east, the rain will end from west to east, but chances do continue through late afternoon across far eastern zones. For tonight, dry with clearing skies as the upper trough axis moves over the area. Winds light and variable with lows only in the lower 40s west to near 50 over near O'Neill. Warmer 850mb temperatures from 17-20C will move in across the west supporting highs in the upper 70s.
Warmer high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are expected, with 40s and 50s in the mountains.
Pattern models have been progging for days now set up well, with upper high situated across the extreme east US, while upper trough digs across the nations mid-section. This upper trough still looking to evolve into a cutoff upper low across the southern plains early Tue, and this pretty much dictates our pattern into late week. Few changes from previous runs now showing upper low much deeper, remaining quite deep Tue- Thu as it wobbles mainly over mainly TX. This upper low. Late Thu, upper high to the east breaks down, and while the upper low remains cutoff, a weak upper wave will pass Fri, followed by a weak trough axis on Sat. This process, along with SFC/LL high pressure also breaking down, will push a frontal boundary slowly across the mid-state late Fri through Sat.