Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broken to overcast mid to high clouds expected through most of the period as series of upper disturbances rounds the base of a broad upper level trof. A broad mid to upper trof over much of the eastern conus this morning will continue to shift south reaching the northern gulf coast by sat afternoon. Most of the model guidance continues to show a series of mid level impulses within the base of the trof tracking from east TX to the GA/Carolina coast through sat afternoon. Tonights lows will range from the lower to middle 30s for most inland locations and the mid 30s to around 40 along the immediate coast.
Decent short wave trough appears to be enhancing shsn into a bit of a squall line as it enters far wrn PA. Thus, there is most likely an equal short wave ridge behind and a bit of a lull after the best shsn come through in the next 4-6 hours. longwave trough.
825 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 Water vapor imagery showing upper trof over far northeast Colorado this evening and moving rapidly south and southeast. Other change was to lower temperatures tonight over the high mountain valleys with mainly clear skies. A weak disturbance wl clip the northeast corner of Colorado this evening in the 01-04z windows, with a drier northerly flow for the rest of tonight and Saturday, as an amplified ridge over the west coast. Gusty northerly winds will continue above timberline on Saturday with ridgetop winds in the 35-40 mph range. Adjusted the low temperatures in the mountains and high valleys based off the much colder temperatures this morning.
543 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Dry and cool conditions prevailed across the MO Ozarks / SE KS this afternoon as the region remains under the influence of a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Rockies.
Update An upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue to push weak disturbances towards the Dakotas just nipping the far east of Montana. The strong western states ridge of high pressure will remain in control over the next several days, at least well through this weekend.
Light northwest winds tonight into Saturday morning before another cold front brings breezy northwest winds by noon. /issued 316 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Skies are continuing to clear out as an upper level trough axis pushes to our south and meridional flow settles overhead. Winds will be light overnight thanks to surface ridging.
648 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 The low clouds over southeast Manitoba are getting close to the northwest angle of Minnesota.
Lower clouds could return late tonight, but the more likely time is between 7 and 10 am as a cold front drops in from the north. Due to the infrequency of the higher gusts and off shore winds, will hold off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory at this time. The back edge of the low clouds is making its way eastward into south central WI late this afternoon.
720 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Quiet weather expected tonight with partly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures expected. Winds will remain northerly through the evening after the passage of yesterday's cold front. As the cold front shifts south, a predominant northwest to northeast wind around 15 knots will prevail through the weekend.
617 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A positive tilted trough of low pressure extended from the mid Mississippi valley west southwest to Baja California. West of this feature, ridging extended up the west coast into southwestern Canada. falls noted over the lower Ohio valley. The forecast area was situated between high pressure across the central Rockies with low pressure located over Quebec. Saturday will be similar to today with northwest winds and similar 850mb temperatures so have decided to go warmer than models are projecting for highs by a few degrees, as models were a little cool with highs today.
/issued 458 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Late this afternoon through Saturday: Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front pushing south over the southern tip of the peninsula into the Florida Straits. Temperatures in portions of the northern interior are already down into the lower 70s. On Saturday, a cooler and drier airmass will filter down the Florida peninsula from the north.
533 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A cold front will cross the region Friday night with northwesterly winds and colder air moving in for the weekend.
902 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Skies cleared this evening as the lower clouds over the area this afternoon moved off to the east. Temps under the clouds in IA are warmer than in areas where skies are clear, so would expect temps to steady out overnight and slightly rise. Based on persistence forecast, have included scattered flurries with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.
High/mid clouds with winds staying up will keep temperatures above freezing tonight. Tight pressure gradient behind cold front will produce advisory criteria winds offshore into Satuday morning.
This system should mainly impact the Missouri River valley with a mixture of freezing rain and snow.
Indication are that the low- level air mass dries out sufficiently to end that threat by this afternoon. As for the Winter Weather Advisory area, temperatures are hovering right around freezing in the higher elevations at this time and although the chances for much in the way of accumulations are fading, we will keep the advisory going until the threat diminishes further. Very cold (coldest since January) air mass settling in tonight and entire forecast will see temperatures dropping below freezing.
Upper level ridge begins to weaken today as a weak upper level trough moves across Washington State. Temperatures still look to reach the low 70s in the valley. Another upper level trough moves across the region late Wednesday which will bring precipitation to the mountains. Showers will be possible in the valley with the cold frontal passage late Wednesday night. The Boise River at Glenwood Bridge remains in minor flood until further notice. Warm weather will peak today as upper level ridge axis passes through from west to east. Light rain is expected today on northern CWA border on the periphery of the ridge. Wednesday should be about 5 degrees cooler than today except in south-central Idaho which will be almost as warm as today. As upper ridge shifts east, rain in the north will gradually spread south through Wednesday.
Most spots should remain above freezing, but it is not impossible that a few remote locations could dip to 32 degrees right around sunrise. Dry northwest flow aloft will remain in place through midweek due to ridging across the west and deep low pressure across the eastern CONUS. Highs Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today due to a slightly warmer start to the day and building high pressure aloft.
Freezing temperatures have been reached in Paris, Tennessee and near freezing across the majority of the freeze warning area. Latest water vapor satellite shows broad northwest flow over the entire Mississippi Valley with a strengthening trof organizing across the southeastern United States.
1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2017 High pressure over the Great Basin will be gaining strength over the next 48 hours promising more warm and dry weather for our forecast area. Have nudged temps down slightly for today as latest satellite imagery still showing enough dirt in the ridge to shade the sun at times today and struggled to warm yesterday with clouds in place. It will be warmer, but the chase for record heat will wait for one more day. Ridge slides east on Wednesday with flow going more westerly and southwesterly by late in the day. This will finally kick the high clouds out for a day and allow temps to jump up a good 5 degrees in most areas, putting many of the valleys within striking range of record heat.
With most all sites now above freezing. Indication are that the low- level air mass dries out sufficiently to end that threat by this afternoon. As for the Winter Weather Advisory area, temperatures are hovering right around freezing in the higher elevations at this time and although the chances for much in the way of accumulations are fading, we will keep the advisory going until the threat diminishes further. Very cold (coldest since January) air mass settling in tonight and entire forecast will see temperatures dropping below freezing.
Thus, think highs will be a bit cooler in northwestern Oklahoma than previously forecast.
A disturbance currently located within an upper ridge across Montana will drop southeast into the Dakotas and western Nebraska tonight. Warmer air aloft will bring the potential for freezing rain and sleet in addition to light snow. Lows tonight from the lower 30s eastern panhandle to the lower and mid 20s east.
Upper level ridge over western North America will shift to the western Great Lakes and Ontario by 12Z Fri. Upper level jet extended over the top of an upper level ridge and was diving southeast into NE and western IA. Another upper level jet approaching the Pacific Northwest will roll over the ridge and into the Northern Plains by Wed, then shift east of the area by early Thu. Upper level ridge should be over the area Thu. Upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will move into the area late Fri. Slightly colder air will bring a brief pause in the ongoing warming trend with the possibility of some mixed precipitation before temperatures sneak above the freezing mark. High pressure will then quickly build into the area for at least the first half of the weekend.
But otherwise the further east you go, the more you run into dry low level air courtesy of high pressure parked north of Minnesota. Highs today will be seasonably cold once again, and trended toward the cooler guidance readings along and east of the James River which were all bias corrected values. Tonight, the high pressure system noted above will move further eastward, giving our entire forecast area a southeast flow.
Can't rule out a wintry mix including some freezing rain over eastern zones (Miles City to Broadus and east) late this afternoon into the evening, however road temperatures and the light nature of the precipitation should mitigate any impacts.
CSV ASOS is also reporting some dense freezing fog at present. On the Plateau, very light snow or flurries will be possible today as temperatures will remain colder, and also added mention of patchy freezing fog for the morning hours. Flight conditions look to improve this morning and into the afternoon from west to east as the upper trough moves eastward.
633 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A deep upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue to be the primary weather-maker across central Illinois today. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, skies will clear from west to east and temperatures will plunge. High pressure will dominate the weather on Wednesday, providing sunny but cold conditions with highs once again remaining below normal in the lower to middle 30s. As the high shifts off to the east, southerly return flow will begin Wednesday night, resulting in increasing cloud cover and slightly warmer lows in the teens and lower 20s.
Despite the cool temperatures, a nice warmup is in store today with afternoon highs topping out in the lower and middle 70s, under mostly sunny skies.
High pressure aloft will remain over the Great Basin through Wednesday.
As high pressure begins to build into the area. This high pressure will help usher in some of the coldest air we have seen in awhile and a freeze is possible across the forecast area with the coldest in the north where some low 20s are expected.
909 AM PDT Tue Mar 14 2017 High pressure aloft will continue dry and warm days inland this week, while the marine layer and weak onshore flow keeps the coast cooler, with areas of low clouds and fog.
High pressure will remain centered over the southwestern U.
High pressure is progged to settle south across the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight allowing the best opportunity for radiational cooling across Southeast KS where lows are expected to fall into the low 20s.
Kept with the cooler trend which puts lows in S. Middle TN in the teens and in the lower to middle 20s elsewhere. Wednesday will remain cool as we see the lowest 850mb temps at this time, around -10 to -12C. Highs will be close to Tuesday's or maybe a deg cooler, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The rising heights will combat this a bit so lows will be in the lower to middle 20s with wind chills near the same due to light wind. Went ahead and issued another Freeze Warning for Wednesday given the high confidence in the event.
The next chance for precipitation will be later this evening and this still looks like freezing rain and some sleet across the west. Currently, at upper levels a low pressure trough was over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region with a western ridge over the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, arctic high pressure was over southwestern Ontario/Minnesota with mild Pacific air over the Rockies and Front Range. Today the western upper level ridge builds east into the Dakotas. Strong warm advection at H850 pushes into western ND, but the arctic high pressure remains over Minnesota. Temperature profiles with the warmer air aloft suggest mainly sleet or freezing rain. The upper level western ridge continues pushing east.
Lift associated with this feature is sufficient to product some flurries or light rain in locations above freezing.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will result in continued dry weather conditions today, along with warm temperatures.
FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVER PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND Latest satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough over most of the CONUS. Temperatures were from the upper 30s to the lower 40s as of mid morning, which was 4 to 6 degrees cooler than the previous morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 23 42 23 / 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 21 37 20 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 19 39 20 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 18 33 17 / 40 20 0 0 NC.
Currently, at upper levels a low pressure trough was over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region with a western ridge over the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, arctic high pressure was over southwestern Ontario/Minnesota with mild Pacific air over the Rockies and Front Range. Today the western upper level ridge builds east into the Dakotas. Strong warm advection at H850 pushes into western ND, but the arctic high pressure remains over Minnesota. Temperature profiles with the warmer air aloft suggest mainly sleet or freezing rain. The upper level western ridge continues pushing east.
Cold front should exit south of the region by the early afternoon hours, with gradually clearing skies and drier air in its wake. /issued 730 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ Outside of some brief MVFR ceilings this morning ahead of a passing cold front, VFR flying conditions will prevail at the TAF sites. A passing brief light shower will be possible at the east coast sites this morning ahead of the cold front, but will have minimal impacts.
Can't rule out a wintry mix including some freezing rain over eastern zones (Miles City to Broadus and east) late this afternoon into the evening, however road temperatures and the light nature of the precipitationshould mitigate any impacts.
Cold front pushing into the southern peninsula this morning with high pressure poised to build slowly into the area behind it. A reinforcing cold front will reach the northern coverage warning area by around sunrise Wednesday. High pressure will gradually build into the region over the next 24hrs behind the cold front now across the southern FL peninsula. Another reinforcing cold front will drop into our northern CWA by around sunrise Wed. Cold frontal boundary sweeping southward into the southern peninsula this morning. A reinforcing cold front will drop into the northern marine legs near daybreak Wed morning. Brisk NW sfc/transport winds behind a cold front pushing into the southern FL peninsula this mrng will generate a strong dry air advection pattern acrs central FL.
1215 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. A brief period of efficient snow will continue through the high terrain through early afternoon but generally expecting rates to diminish as strong cold advection steepens profiles to colder than ideal dendritic snow growth values and dry air entrain across the area.
Surface wise, a trough of low pressure on the nearshore waters south of the Florida Keys is moving southeast and further away from the island chain. In wake of a secondary trough, low level drier air will filter into our region, hence, showers have been removed for all grids.
With little to no sun, this breeze is going to keep Apparent Temperatures (or the "feels like temperatures") in the low 30s throughout the day.
Dry high pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and VFR. This high pressure will settle over Ohio River Valley tomorrow evening.
Otherwise, high pressure was providing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across the rest of the forecast area with chilly temperatures in the single digits to lower teens. High pressure will provide a quiet stretch from today through Wednesday night.
/Issued 407 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ Upper level northwesterly flow on the backside of the main low pressure system moving up the East Coast was common across the Central United States this morning. Behind the exiting high pressure.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 70s.
Today Through Wednesday Night Upper high pressure will continue in the west with an upper low over the northeast through Wednesday. Temperatures should fall just below freezing in this area. Freezing temperatures are expected over all but southwest Arkansas. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to the mid 50s and Wednesday highs will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
923 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Northerly winds will be found over the Ohio Valley in between a strong east coast low pressure center and high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A strong upper level low will cross into the northern Ohio Valley from the Great Lakes today.
636 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A large upper level low will shift southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some guidance is trying to produce some small/minor chances for precip Thu in the low level warm air advection regime.
/issued 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ Will start the day with an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough extending from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast.
Latest models show even less QPF tonight so freezing rain amounts should remain scattered to light. The next chance for precipitation will be later this evening and this still looks like freezing rain and some sleet across the west. Currently, at upper levels a low pressure trough was over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region with a western ridge over the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, arctic high pressure was over southwestern Ontario/Minnesota with mild Pacific air over the Rockies and Front Range. Today the western upper level ridge builds east into the Dakotas. Strong warm advection at H850 pushes into western ND, but the arctic high pressure remains over Minnesota. Temperature profiles with the warmer air aloft suggest mainly sleet or freezing rain. The upper level western ridge continues pushing east.
715 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 With cold front already east of the area, conditions beginning to improve at KCHA.
Clear skies and light winds, calm in spots, have allowed temperatures to drop into the low-50s areawide. Temperatures throughout the day, with plenty of dry air around and clear skies, will climb back into the low-70s in a lot of places, mid-70s across the west. Weak low-level cold air advection as high pressure moves by to our east later this afternoon becomes more neutral and eventually weak warm air advection with return flow developing. This starts to bring moisture back into the region, albeit slowly, with overnight lows several degrees warmer than this morning's. Return flow on Wednesday is a bit stronger with dewpoints climbing back into the low-60s.
625 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A band of very light snow from the Dakotas into Nebraska and northern Kansas is associated with a sheared and very weak vort max on the back side of the large upper trough to the east. Freeze warning remains in effect for far southern parts of the forecast area which have experienced more growing degree days (warmer temperatures/more growth) this season, but obviously any blossoming vegetation further north is at risk as well.
Ridge/trough pattern in place across the CONUS with deep closed low pressure centered pretty much over northern Michigan. At the surface, strong high pressure continues to build into the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes region this morning with northeasterly flow slowing backing toward north.
730 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Outside of some brief MVFR ceilings this morning ahead of a passing cold front, VFR flying conditions will prevail at the TAF sites. A passing brief light shower will be possible at the east coast sites this morning ahead of the cold front, but will have minimal impacts.
The cool air advection will make for a much cooler day today with temperatures only topping out in the lower to mid 60s across the Nature Coast, upper 60s central zones, and around 70 to the lower 70s south with a breezy northwest wind flow making it feel even cooler. Prevailing MVFR cigs early this morning will improve to VFR after 16Z as drier air advects into the region in the wake of a cold front.
1018 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Morning surface analysis shows high pressure building into the region. Dry high pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and VFR. This high pressure will settle over Ohio River Valley tomorrow evening.
Slippery Travel for the AM Commute Where it Snowed Overnight then the Next Big Story is the Huge Warm-Up Thu as Much Warmer Air Aloft: RAP analyses and aircraft data show a ridge over the Wrn USA anchored by a subtropical high over AZ. A trof was over the E with NW flow here on the Plns. A very modest lee trof was in between.
Offshore wind surge will continue across the coastal waters this morning as a cold front moves through. Winds will subside a little this afternoon but then really pick up tonight as cold air moves across the relatively warmer waters.
Radar data from KAMA 88D have been indicating winds in excess of 50 kt within the lowest 1500 feet above the surface for the past several hours. This low-level jet being sampled is expected to dissipate around 15z, ending the threat for low-level wind shear. /Issued 441 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ Not much for changes in this forecast package as the upper level patterns continues holding upper level ridging to the west, leaving the Panhandles in northwest flow aloft. Lee side troughing will bring warmer temps today for the area.
High pressure will dominate our weather this week, with temperatures well above average and dry conditions for Southeast Arizona.
Thunderstorm chances look quite slim today with limited low and mid level moisture and the influx of a cooler and drier low level airmass as seen on low and mid level theta-e graphics. Well pronounced low and mid level theta-e ridge axis resides over our eastern counties so expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms to develop along and near the mountains.
1225 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak high pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure will track south of the region tonight through Tuesday. However, the weather disturbance, which will be moving very slowly, will weaken and push south later today into tonight as upper level ridging presses in from the Great Lakes. An upper level trof will cross the region Tuesday with partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers.
32 A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the week.
1232 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Hydro High pressure will provide dry and pleasant weather today through most of Tuesday.