Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is where the greater potential for the lowest RH and stronger winds to overlap and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, a ridge building over the Rockies, and a trough developing over the Pacific Northwest coast. By Sunday morning, the frontal trough is expected to reach the Montana/North Dakota border with south/southwesterly winds in the prefrontal region to the east. As usual, the RAP continues to be the low- end of guidance for surface dew points.
An upper trough over the Ohio Valley with push an associated cold front across se Ga/ne Fl late tonight. Drier and slightly cooler air will spread across the area behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the low/mid 60s tonight. Highs on Sunday will reach the upper 70s over interior se Ga to the low/mid 80s across ne Fl and coastal Georgia.
As temps warmed toward the lower 60s, convective instability has been released on either side of the earlier light shower band. As for temperatures, should see highs at or just above normal for this time of year - in the lower to mid 60s.
222 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Upper trough currently moving into the area will slowly move east over the next 24 hours.
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 High clouds will stream into the region this afternoon, following a weak upper level jet and ridge of high pressure sliding across the area tonight.
140 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. Showers will begin to overspread the region from south to north late this afternoon and into the evening as a stacked low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Rain will continue Sunday as the upper low transitions over the region with total QPF amounts expected between 1. Cold air may arrive early enough to yield a transition to snow showers in the ridges late Sun night, but no significant accumulation is expected given marginal sfc temperatures.
Much of the CWA north of the F-M area is in mixed mid-level clouds, with pockets of deep convection associated with a surface trof extending from Devils lake down through McHenry and Oakes. The upper low is moving very slowly to the southeast, and satellite imagery currently places it along the central portions of the ND/SD border. This is in association with a weak upper low that is moving from northwest to southeast from south-central North Dakota into north- central South Dakota this morning.
Gilstad A 500 mb ridge will build over our region today. This will mean drier and warmer conditions despite some increasing high clouds from the west during the afternoon. A short wave trough will scoot across southern Canada tonight and Sunday flattening the ridge, and may produce a few showers over the high country as well. However, the lower elevations are expected to remain dry thanks to brisk downslope flow in the mid levels. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s today, and push into the lower 70s Sunday.
210 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Strong low pressure system brings rain tonight and Sunday.
Winds come back around to the east on Sunday and then the southeast on Sunday night, and this should allow for slightly warmer temperatures across the area. Look for another cool night on Sunday night with lows once again in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the coast, but these readings will be a couple degrees warmer than what the area will experience tonight.
For Sunday, dry and sunny skies are expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
An upper trof, the axis of which is oriented near the Mississippi River valley, advances slowly eastward across much of the eastern states during the period. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast, then highs on Sunday range from the lower 70s well inland to near 80 over the coastal counties. A cold front located just west of the area moves through the area this afternoon into the evening hours with southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots gradually switching to the northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.
Another lobe of the upper trough will swing through the area Sunday, bringing additional chances for showers. Best chances look to be over the eastern zones during the afternoon when the trough axis moves over the region.
Some additional MVFR cigs will impact the northern terminals after 06Z and after 08Z for the southern ones as lower clouds develop ahead of an approaching cold front. 88D returns have been showing some rather impressive convection over the Gulf waters southwest of Lee county this morning which is currently affecting the Naples area, with other strong storms noted between 20-60nm west of the Lee county coast, and other strong cells noted beyond 60nm west of the central Gulf waters all of which are associated with a short wave trough passing across the region.
Some weak convection is developing in the mountains right now, but it doens't seem to be surviving to well once it gets out into the lower foothills & plains. Snow levels are around 7500 feet, and the higher elevations could see a couple inches of accumulation. Skies will be clearing and 700mb temperatures will be around 2 degrees C warmer over yesterday, allowing for highs around 4 to 6 degrees F warmer. Warm advection and downsloping pattern should result in much warmer low temperatures tonight along and near the foothills.
Skies will clear as high pressure settles in the from the W, with VFR conditions maintaining through the end of the fcst period.
Otherwise, quiet conditions expected tonight in the wake of a weak cold front that pushed through S TX earlier in the day. That will lead to cooler temperatures and less humidity tonight. This will lead to increasing low level moisture and warmer temps.
Sunday will be mostly dry but portions of the Tennessee Valley could see a few showers during the afternoon as the main upper trough continues to depart east.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ A weak upper disturbance moving southeast across Kansas and into Oklahoma is trailing a much stronger upper trough now moving into the Ohio River Valley. Subsidence from the ridge should help to maintain dry weather through Sunday night.
/issued 655 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ 12Z TAFS A cold front bisects the area this morning roughly along the I-10 corridor, but with little difference in apparent weather outside of some slightly lower dewpoints and light wind shift. /issued 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ Late night sfc analysis/regional 88D mosaic shows the cold front extending from the ArkLaMiss swwd to the Piney Woods region just outside of the forecast area to far srn TX. Once the front passes us later this morning, the weekend and early part of the new work week look quiet across the forecast area as high pressure builds over the region. Guidance has inched up a couple of degrees from previous runs with much of the area now projected to see highs in the lower 80s this afternoon.
The greater potential for the lowest RH and stronger winds to overlap will be in the northwest portion of the state where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, a ridge building over the Rockies, and a trough developing over the Pacific Northwest coast. By Sunday morning, the frontal trough is expected to reach the Montana/North Dakota border with south/southwesterly winds in the prefrontal region to the east. As usual, the RAP continues to be the low- end of guidance for surface dew points.
216 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows multiple small scale short wave troughs in the northwest flow from the Great Basin onto the Plains. This morning a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest part of the forecast area. Through the rest of the day northwest winds will be light and highs will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Within the flow a short wave trough will develop over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon, moving east. This trough may lead to some rain development as it moves into the northwest part of the forecast area during the evening. Due to the short wave trough moving into the forecast area during the evening, am not too confident of the rainfall lasting very long due to daytime heating ending.
Recent HRRR/RAP runs have delayed the erosion of the low-level moisture until Sunday morning--possibly owing to the influence of the ongoing convection. As surface ridging approaches from the west, winds will lessen this evening and skies clear. Sunday will be mostly sunny and pleasant with light winds increasing out of the south behind the ridge axis and highs warming into the low 70s.
Weak cold front moves across TAF sites early Sunday. Warm front will lift north of the region this morning. A cold front will move southeast across area Tonight.
Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge running up from the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West and cresting over southern half of Alberta. Northwest flow extends from this ridge across eastern montana and into the Dakotas. Farther west a large trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today through tonight: Ridge will move across eastern Montana generating a clear sky day followed by chinook clouds in the evening hours. With the ridge's passing RH will drop into the upper teens at times.
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western MN, with high pressure centered over the central Rockies.
Satellite shows some breaks in the low clouds moving across the mid state, and should allow for some additional surface heating ahead of the cold front. 12Z models haven't changed much in regards to bulk shear and CAPE, so still expecting some strong to severe storms possible this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Lapse rates steepen in the low to mid levels later this afternoon, with little to no surface based CIN.
144 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 High pressure aloft will continue to bring warm weather today. The coastal areas will be a little cooler than yesterday with a shallow marine layer in place.
227 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Dry and warm, with partly cloudy skies today, but some increasing cloudiness later this evening as a short wave trough slides across southern Canada. Trough will continue eastward tonight, flattening the ridge, allowing some potential for a few showers in the high terrain.
/issued 440 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Drier and cooler air has settled over West Central Texas, behind yesterday's cold front. Thus, highs today and lows tonight will be cooler than yesterday and slightly below usual late April highs and lows.
Slight anticyclonic curvature will move overhead Sunday with a flattening ridge approximating zonal westerly flow, and leading into the warming trend ahead.
Models have upper ridging over the forecast area tonight and SUnday. The low level winds should pretty much be normal drainage patterns tonight. For Sunday's high temperatures, readings should be about 2-5 C warmer than today's highs. This feature will prooduce a chance of rain/snow showers over the higher terrain, in the evening hours, with a slight chc across the plains. There is just enough moisture, embedded in the flow, to keep a slight chc of showers over the higher terrain. Highs will be warmer, over nern CO, with readings from 75 to 80 degrees. For Wed through Fri and upper level ridge will build into the area.
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will drift east/northeast into the Ohio Valley area tonight with northwest mid/upper flow prevailing across the Central Plains.
1109 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows multiple small scale short wave troughs in the northwest flow from the Great Basin onto the Plains. This morning a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the southwest part of the forecast area. Through the rest of the day northwest winds will be light and highs will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Within the flow a short wave trough will develop over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon, moving east. This trough may lead to some rain development as it moves into the northwest part of the forecast area during the evening. Due to the short wave trough moving into the forecast area during the evening, am not too confident of the rainfall lasting very long due to daytime heating ending.
857 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 High pressure aloft will continue to bring warm weather today. The coastal areas will be a little cooler than yesterday with a shallow marine layer in place.
1111 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Continuing to watch the evolution/track of the surface cyclone currently located over SW MO this morning. Latest 12Z NAM progs favor a slight shift to the north for the low track through the next 12-18 hours. Given this, the eventual surge of the warm front would be enhanced northward therefore favoring some warm sector destabilization across portions of East TN and southwestern VA/NC. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 52 61 44 70 / 50 30 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 53 58 42 66 / 70 60 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 52 58 42 67 / 70 60 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 50 56 41 61 / 70 80 60 60 10.
110 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Above average temperatures continue across Central California today as high pressure a loft persists.
Dry air mass in place will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s for most areas. Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s.
The residual surface feature (previously a cold front) will continue to hang around south Florida through early week. That said, as we have seen this morning we also can't rule out POPs across the Gulf so went a bit bullish overall with POPs and thunder chances areawide, with again the highest potential being across the Atlantic coast. Upper troughing progressing through the eastern states will provide impetus to push the stalled frontal zone through South Florida early in the period bringing a pronounced decrease in both moisture and temperatures. No precipitation is anticipated, given the lack of tropospheric moisture and a high pressure ridge stationed across the area. The upper pattern will amplify across the CONUS with a sharpening upper trough digging equatorward across the eastern States.
335 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Main surface trof axis, now along a Lidgerwood to Finley to Niagaraline, will continue a slow eastward shift through the late afternoon and evening period. Convection along and ahead of trof axis in southeast ND and adjacent portions of northwest through west-central MN continues to become more diffuse as the focus for mid level energy and surface heating have both shifted well south into eastern Sd and southwestern MN.
1126 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The next 24 hours will bring the highest chance of rain since early February for the Florida Keys, thanks to the expectation of strong thunderstorms over the forecast domain tonight. In contrast, the Lower and Middle Keys stayed dry. However, there was an inversion based near 7,000 feet MSL, which has kept a lid on an otherwise agitated looking cumulus field west and north of the Lower/Middle Keys. Storms may focus along a WSW-ENE oriented boundary which will develop in the vicinity of the Lower/Middle Keys. Low pressure currently near Missouri will lumber east- northeast through the Ohio Valley and U.
242 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Partly cloudy skies and a few showers will continue through the afternoon, tapering off as the sun sets over the High Plains and the adjacent high terrain.
/22/ The upper level low was noted on satellite imagery spinning over the mid Mississippi river valley at mid morning. The cold front was near the Natchez Trace and will continue to move through the remainder of the CWA this afternoon. Gusty winds will develop over the remainder of the area through the afternoon with the highest gusts expected north of Interstate 20. Lows on Sunday morning will range from the low to mid 50s.
206 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Strong area of low pressure was pushing into southern Illinois early this afternoon. Some wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph still occurring over south central MO just west of the low, while the gradient is a bit more relaxed further west, but still gusting 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 40s in the east to the low to mid 60s out west where is was becoming sunny.
Low temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 20s to around 30 north, and in the lower to middle 30s. Sunday Night Through Saturday A progressive upper level flow will draw a couple of low pressure systems through the Midwest during the next several days.
Dew points will rise into the lower to mid 40s within this area of higher moisture. This will nudge the higher dew point eastward as well.
340 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The next 24 hours will bring the highest chance of rain since early February for the Florida Keys, thanks to the expectation of strong thunderstorms over the forecast domain tonight. Storms may focus along a WSW-ENE oriented boundary which should develop in the vicinity of the Lower/Middle Keys. Will then be looking at a cold front moving in from the north on Sunday night.
134 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 [Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail with the only aviation hazard the next 24 hours being gusty southwest winds this afternoon ahead of a cold front. An area of low pressure will move from the Ozarks northeastward to the Great Lakes area and drag a cold front through our area tonight. Sufficient moisture and lift remains further north so just a wind shift is expected along with cooler temperatures for Sunday. Highs today will be in the mid 80s with lows tonight in the low 60s.
The pattern producing this will remain fairly high amplitude, but with Iowa in between the warmer/drier and cooler/wetter extremes farther west and east respectively, at least through midweek.
537 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. Showers will begin to overspread the region from South to North into the evening as a stacked low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Rain will continue Sunday as the upper low transitions over the region with total QPF amounts expected between 1. Cold air may arrive early enough to yield a transition to snow showers in the ridges late Sun night, but no significant accumulation is expected given marginal sfc temperatures.
Several bands of convection have developed SE of the low in the warm sector across central and western Kentucky/Tennessee. As the low tracks eastward through the Ohio River Valley, the rain will taper off and come to an end northwest of the Illinois River toward midnight. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will provide clear skies and calm winds Sunday night, allowing overnight lows to drop into the middle to upper 30s along/northeast of a Lacon.
With the exception of the northeast counties, expect mostly sunny skies on Sunday with much cooler temperatures. Wrap around clouds on the back side of the exiting low pressure system will produce more cloud cover across the northeast counties.
523 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Partly cloudy skies and a few showers will continue through the afternoon, tapering off as the sun sets over the High Plains and the adjacent high terrain.
Cold front has moved across the region and now east of the Atchafalaya River, with cooler and drier air moving across the region.
752 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Strong low pressure system brings rain tonight and Sunday.
Reimer Dry and warm, with partly cloudy skies today, but some increasing clouds this evening as a short wave trough slides across southern Canada. Trough will continue eastward tonight, flattening the ridge, allowing some potential for a few showers in the high terrain.
429 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Latest surface analysis revealed a low over southern Indiana with a cold front extending southeast to north Alabama to Mobile Bay to Mississippi mouth to the northwest Gulf. In addition, ridge of high pressure mainly from Hudson Bay to the northern Plains to Texas. Upper air analysis showed a upper level low over southern Illinois.
A cold front moving across the eastern forecast area may cause MVFR conditions for brief periods of time in rain showers and lowered CIGS.
Ridge of high pressure today brought absolutely comfortably warm conditions and sunny skies to the region.
Gradient wind remains gusty this evening as an upper level low swings east across the Ohio Valley.
516 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western MN, with high pressure centered over the central Rockies.
High temps on Sun are expected to be around 10 degrees above average, with 70s and lower 80s across the southeast plains, upper 60s to mid 70s in the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s in Teller County.
Guidances across the board came in with slightly warmer lows for tonight, thus eliminating any potential need for a frost advisory. winds will go nearly calm overnight, shift to southerly by morning and then generally speaking tomorrow is fairly similar to today but with warmer highs in the 70s.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature over the Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days.
For 00Z Aviation discussion below Upper trough currently moving into the area will slowly move east over the next 24 hours.
Main surface trof axis, now along a Lidgerwood to Finley to Niagaraline, will continue a slow eastward shift through the late afternoon and evening period. Convection along and ahead of trof axis in southeast ND and adjacent portions of northwest through west-central MN continues to become more diffuse as the focus for mid level energy and surface heating have both shifted well south into eastern Sd and southwestern MN.
An approaching upper level trough may aid in the development of a few light rain showers near the coast late this evening into the overnight hours, but overall coverage will be isolated enough to preclude mention in the local TAFs with this issuance. Winds will become northwesterly between 5-10 knots across the region this evening behind a passing cold front.
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will drift east/northeast into the Ohio Valley area tonight with northwest mid/upper flow prevailing across the Central Plains.
332 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A cold front will move across the Northern Rockies late this afternoon through tonight, bringing a vigorous burst of wind and rainfall to the region. Clouds will also increase towards Sunday evening, ahead of the next cold front.
714 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. Showers will continue to spread Northward throughout the evening as a stacked low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Rain will continue Sunday as the upper low transitions over the region with total QPF amounts expected between 1. Cold air may arrive early enough to yield a transition to snow showers in the ridges late Sun night, but no significant accumulation is expected given marginal sfc temperature.
The low level airmass has been dry enough that much of the precip is not reaching the ground, although a few sprinkles were felt earlier this evening while observing a rather colorful sunset amidst the midlevel clouds and virga. Overnight lows should be on track to reach the lower to middle 50s north and upper 50s/near 60 south. Cold front has moved across the region and now east of the Atchafalaya River, with cooler and drier air moving across the region.
1039 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Currently - A large deep layered trough blankets the eastern United States, reaching into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the lower level ridge is off to our east. This, in combination with the large scale trough across the eastern United States and the associated nearby ribbon of low level moisture and confluent flow should be sufficient to begin development of showers and thunderstorms.