Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect most activity to dissipate with loss of heating later this evening, but another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again overnight around Matagorda Bay as a disturbance rotating around the upper ridge over West Texas arrives from the ArkLaTex. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to range from the low 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Drier air behind today's front will result in dry conditions on Monday and will also allow for Monday to feel slightly cooler than today as heat index values "only" rise into the mid to upper 90s (high temperatures low to mid 90s).
305 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 A Canadian high pressure system over the lower Great Lakes will build into central NC through Monday, then linger overhead through mid-week. Bulk of model guidance is warmer, averaging near 60-lower 60s. These values are still 3-5 degrees warmer than record low temps for July 31st. An area of high pressure at the surface and slowly rising heights aloft will maintain the seasonably cool and dry air mass over central NC. Afternoon temperatures Monday should a degree or two warmer Sunday. High pressure will maintain clear skies Monday night.
1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 A weak cold front currently moving through KHOU and KSGR will continue to push southwestward today and tonight. Additionally, drier air is beginning to filter in behind the front (dew points in the low 60s at Crockett compared to upper 70s near Edna), which will help the northeastern counties feel a bit cooler than yesterday as heat index values are only forecast to reach the mid 90s. The eastern periphery of the upper ridge that has been in control of area wx will erode during the early/middle parts of the week.
Most recent model runs are divergent on effects of frontal boundary combining with low pressure (Invest area 98L) swirling along the boundary over the Eastern Gulf. More notably, GFS shows progression of drying well south into the area thus limiting rain chcs over the Space Cst and Nwd, whereas the ECM exhibits a more Nwd track of the low pressure area as it rides E-NE along the existing boundary.
The SE-NW oriented upper ridge currently over the region is predicted (GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic) to retreat toward the NW somewhat during the period.
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Relatively cooler conditions will persist today with the chance of primarily isolated showers. There is an axis of higher instability over the high plains, centered west of our forecast area.
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather with low humidity into the middle part of the week.
ERN zones will remain rain cooler and more stable, while the west breaks out and warms some. S/WV can be seen in ERN NM on WV and this will also help initiate storms near the NM line along H85 theta-e ridge. Upper high over the Panhandles early today will shift south by tonight and then west by Monday across far West Texas and the southern Rockies.
An upper trough crossing Quebec will push a weak cold front southward into upstate NY. Models show isolated convection developing in vicinity of the Lower Lakes which may drift south/east into the northern tier of central PA during the afternoon/early evening before dissipating.
324 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Little change in the forecast as high pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley is responsible for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over the area. Northwest flow aloft is being driven by a trough over the northeastern US and ridge covering most of the western part of the country. The combination of light east to northeasterly flow and clear skies in complex terrain will likely drive temperatures a couple of degrees cooler over areas of southeast Missouri and the Ozark valleys tonight.
Expect less coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday with models all showing an upper level ridge building into northern Wyoming.
Expect this to be the case again this afternoon despite upper level ridging remaining overhead. This ridging is expected to begin weakening tonight which may allow for more widespread convection that develops on the high terrain of northern New Mexico and the adjacent high plains.
A few spots will drop into the lower 60s across the northern counties.
329 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front extended from Big Spring to San Angelo to south of Brownwood at 330 PM. Northwest flow will be in place by Monday night as trough across the eastern U. shoves the ridge over our area now back to the west.
231 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 The 500mb ridge that is directly overhead today will gradually move to the southwest over the next several days. More isolated to scattered convection can be expected during the afternoon hours for the next several days as the aforementioned 500mb ridge moves to the southwest. At the same time, a stronger upper level ridge will be developing over the Great Basin placing West Texas under northwest flow aloft. The NAM does erode the high PWs by mid week but is an outlier in its solution. The upper ridge will eventually weaken/break down as a series of upper level troughs move across Canada. The ridge will still be positioned to the west of the region keeping West Texas under northwest flow aloft.
8 inches precipitable water estimate via GOES, and no changes are seen in the well-progged digging of the east-coast trough even as weak ridging across the southern Bahamas tries to impart slightly anticyclonic flow across our Atlantic waters.
Mostly dry day in store for most of the region outside a few showers that are developing over and near the higher terrain. Expecting these showers to stay mostly confined near the higher terrain the rest of this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will pass through Monday afternoon. Not expecting red flag conditions but with an uptick in winds, and relative humidities in the low teens tomorrow, certainly will see elevated fire weather conditions.
343 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Monsoonal moisture continues to flow over the region around an upper high over central Texas. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow to keep CAPE values similar to today.
Broad mid/upper level high pressure ridge remains over the western CONUS with a weak impulse dropping across eastern SD this afternoon. Otherwise, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the forecast area as the western upper level ridge begins to amplify across the West Coast.
The upper level pattern will feature high pressure over the California/Pacific Coast region and low pressure over the Hudson Bay region.
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure with cooler and drier air prevails through mid week. High pressure centered over the region will be in control through much of the work week.
Monday, as the upper high center migrates a bit farther west, and the flow becomes more northerly, models suggest that the coverage and intensity of storms may be less. A slow decrease in afternoon and evening storm coverage and intensity remains in the offing across the area through the middle of the work week, as upper high pressure builds into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. The best coverage will be over and near the higher terrain, with the more northerly steering flow aloft keeping most storms west of the I-25 corridor.
Another trough is located from eastern MT into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southern high plains, with ridging extending northwestward into the Rockies. KUDX radar shows scattered showers and storms along the trough over south central SD, with scattered activity also over the central and southern Black Hills. Temps are mostly in the 80s, cooler where rain is or has recently fallen. Very warm temperatures can be expected Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, with highs in the 85 to 95 range.
Tonight will be clear and cooler than normal- similar to last night.
Rain chances continue overnight mainly across the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains over the warmer/moist sector of the "cold" front.
652 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure extending from the Midwest, into the northeastern states, will keep our weather mainly dry through Monday.
/Today through Tonight/ High pressure to remain in control through the period and will slightly shift further south into tonight. Temps have been running a few degrees cooler than superblend the past few days, so have trended more toward persistence with another weak push of cooler air into the state today.
The ridge axis, still to our west, will keep a bit of a cool northwest flow persisting across the Plains States into the work week, which will keep our temperatures a little below normal over the next 7 days.
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure with cooler and drier air prevails through mid week. High pressure centered over the region will be in control through much of the work week.
This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday with highs in the low 80s. Cooler temperatures seen tonight with lows in the low 60s. An upper level ridge across the western US will remain in place through next Sunday.
Meanwhile, high pressure over northern Nevada will keep thunderstorm activity somewhat suppressed there.
/Issued 129 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017/ High pressure will bring hot temperatures to the region this week with records possible.
Northeasterly winds will become light under mostly clear skies allowing temps to cool down into the lower 60s. Temps will be a little warmer but still remaining just below normal with highs in the upper 80s.
Today and tonight will be dominated by a weak ridge aloft with weak upper level impulses, and weak southerly surface winds with plenty of low level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s/mid 60s). On Monday the upper level flow consists of a zonal flow (flattened ridge) over the Northern Plains. On Monday morning a cold front is forecast to extend from a low near Hudson Bay southwestward across Manitoba into northwestern ND.
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 A Canadian high pressure system over the lower Great Lakes will build into central NC through Monday, then linger overhead through mid-week. Bulk of model guidance is warmer, averaging near 60-lower 60s. These values are still 3-5 degrees warmer than record low temps for July 31st. Ridging will dominate with cP airmass over the area undergoing some slight moderation on Monday with temperatures remaining below normal with continued low humidity. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 80s. Lows Monday night in the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the typical cool spots.
420 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving more solidly into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. They all depict gentle northwest flow through the area northeast of the main ridge through Monday evening. Sensible weather will feature another relatively cool and quiet night under mostly clear skies with a small ridge to valley temperature split. Also, expect a bit more cloud cover for Monday night perhaps limiting the ridge to valley temperature difference and fog potential.
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving more solidly into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. They all depict gentle northwest flow through the area northeast of the main ridge through Monday evening. Sensible weather will feature another relatively cool and quiet night under mostly clear skies with a small ridge to valley temperature split. Also, expect a bit more cloud cover for Monday night perhaps limiting the ridge to valley temperature difference and fog potential.
244 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the region through Monday, resulting in another warm day on Monday.
/issued 311 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/ The much advertised late July "cold front" is presently traversing the area as denoted in observations by a 5-10 degree change in dewpoint.
207 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017 A large scale high pressure ridge aloft will gradually shift west as a series of alberta clippers moving down the east side of the ridge bring cooler air south in northwest flow. There will be enough moisture rotating up the west side of the ridge, then drifting east across Wyoming with marginal instability producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, most numerous over the northern and western mountains.
This area is coincident with a band of light to moderate showers and an inverted trough axis. Surface observations show dew points ranging from the low 50's to mid 60's across the area. With that said, forcing from the inverted trough may supplement the lack of instability, allowing from for some heavy rainers to develop with daytime heating. A slow-moving inverted trough and deformation area over central Arizona this morning has allowed light showers and extensive cloud cover to persist overnight.
555 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Little change in the forecast as high pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley is responsible for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over the area. Northwest flow aloft is being driven by a trough over the northeastern US and ridge covering most of the western part of the country. The combination of light east to northeasterly flow and clear skies in complex terrain will likely drive temperatures a couple of degrees cooler over areas of southeast Missouri and the Ozark valleys tonight.
1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 253 AM CDT Weak lake breeze likely to keep temps a couple/few degrees cooler near the lake this afternoon.
The start of the period will continue with the upper ridge to the west and a weak pattern across the region.
High pressure centered over the St Croix River Valley leading to clear skies and light winds across most of the region.
Dew points in the low to mid 60's today again. Highs today in the Lower 80s with plenty of cloud cover. ridge/eastern U. trough pattern amplifies through the week, placing Nebraska in northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front stalls out across the central Plains midweek, then gets replaced by a high pressure settling down from the Dakotas late week. The trough, along with upslope flow to the west, will provide lift while moisture gets advected into the region to the east.
230 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Monday. Another great day on tap for CNY/NEPA, with sunny skies and low humidity, thanks to high pressure expanding down from eastern Canada. Large area of high pressure over the central Great Lakes will make for another beautiful summer day. Warm air spreading out from under a large dome of high pressure over the Central and Western U.
This also fits the conceptual model with any weak tropical or hybrid low center being to the left (in this case northwest) of this low level jet.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure extend from central WI southward into the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. A very weak area of low pressure was situated over eastern Lake Superior with a trough stretched southwest into northeast WI. Min temperatures to range from the middle to upper 50s over the cooler locations of north-central WI, to the lower 60s over central/east-central WI. The weakening area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place on Monday, bringing conditions similar to Sunday with lake breeze boundaries developing and daytime heating adding instability. Monday will be a warm and somewhat humid day with max temperatures in the lower 80s near Lake MI, middle to upper 80s elsewhere. Monday Night Through Sunday Main forecast concern is a return to cooler, wetter and windier weather for the end of the work week.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The heat we've been experiencing this weekend should ease a bit as we move into the new week, as the midlevel ridge axis shifts westward. The bump in moisture will also bring an increase in cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.
Then a weak trough moves through Monday afternoon which may spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over central into eastern Wisconsin. However, the GFS has dew point values in the upper 60s while we are forecasting dew points to only make it into the lower 60s and they may mix a little lower into the upper 50s.
230 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Sprawling high pressure centered over the Midwest will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. The airmass will begin to moderate somewhat by Monday, as high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s: however, humidity levels will remain low.
324 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Tonight and Monday: Dry weather with slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Monday. Normal morning lows run in the lower 70s while normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s.
Strengthening high pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring a gradual warming and drying trend to the region through the upcoming week.
319 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Moist southwest flow combined with a weak trough of low pressure will continue to fuel showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours across southern sections of the forecast area with isolated to scattered activity to the north. A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US through the workweek.
Temperatures across central KY and southern IN generally range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, with the Louisville metro a bit warmer. High pressure over the upper Midwest will slowly drift eastward through Monday. Highs today will be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, with Monday a couple degrees warmer than today.
129 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will bring hot temperatures to the region this week with records possible.
Forcing from an inverted trough currently stretching from near Prescott to the Four Corners may keep some shower activity going overnight, although most model guidance suggests quieter conditions than last night. On Monday, the trough axis/deformation zone shifts northwestward, roughly positioned from Seligman to Kayenta.
115 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 A Canadian high pressure system over the lower Great Lakes will build into central NC through Monday, then linger overhead through mid-week. A brisk nly low level flow will advect a drier cooler air mass into central NC. This will yield high temperatures in the low-mid 80s, a solid 5-7 degrees below normal for this time of year. More importantly dewpoints will be in the low- mid 50s, resulting in comfortable humidity. Ridging will dominate with cP airmass over the area undergoing some slight moderation on Monday with temperatures remaining below normal with continued low humidity. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 80s. Lows Monday night in the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the typical cool spots.
Slightly cooler and drier air has filtered into the region, with SFC dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s along and north of the I-10 corridor and in the lower 70s down to the coast. Better rain chances still look on tap for the mid to late week period as the frontal boundary lifts north and stalls near the coast and an upper trof digs into the Central and Eastern US. 13 A light northerly flow and dry weather will prevail through tonight in the wake of the cold front that pushed through the coastal waters earlier Today.
Satellite and radar data show an area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico along the tail end of this frontal boundary. The presence of this low certainly complicates the forecast for the overnight and into the day tomorrow. For Monday, it looks wet once again especially from the Bay Area south as the boundary and associated area of low pressure continues to push south a bit more. There is some potential, albeit, low for this low to take on tropical characteristics over the next 24-36 hours but nevertheless the potential is there.
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Broad upper ridging across Western 2/3 U. Similarly, with temps, now in the lower to mid 80s, finding their way back closer to climo norms (upper 80s highs) by the end of the period.
High pressure centered north of the CWA will dominate today. /22/ Prior discussion below: An unusually dry airmass continues to surge southward into the ArkLaMiss region early this morning as high pressure builds over the area. /EC/ Northwest flow will persist across the region aloft, while high pressure at the surface wedges itself into the ArkLaMiss from the north.
435 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow afternoon and night.
Conditions will remain dry and the northerly flow will keep temps below normal in the low/mid 80s. Therefore, overnight lows will likely dip into the lower 60s for most of the area, with a few locations falling into the upper 50s. Heights will rise ever-so-slightly on Monday, and surface winds will begin to veer to the east as high pressure builds along the east coast.
Cold front will move southeast through the remainder of the forecast area Monday night with chance of thunderstorms along it as it moves through.
Mid level high pressure continues to be centered over Texas this morning. A weak mid level disturbance was tracking around the periphery of the upper high and was moving north northeastward through New Mexico early this afternoon. Will keep the higher pops going into Monday morning before tapering off through the late morning and afternoon hours as the disturbance drifts east and southeast out of the area. Parts of the area may stay in the lower 70s. The upper flow pattern retrogresses through the early part of this week with mid/upper level high pressure setting up over the Great Basin region.
Upper ridging continues to provide hot and dry weather conditions across the region this afternoon with highs across the CWA ranging from the middle 90s near the MT/ND border to the upper 90s and around 100 elsewhere. A cold front will push through the area tonight and Monday switching winds to the north and bringing a relief from the heat. It will perhaps be somewhat warmer in the Yellowstone region where the front may take longer to get to. Lastly, monsoonal moisture streaming north will interact with cooler air coming from the north across the CWA, and this may allow for some convection initiation across SE MT.
Rare cold front (for this time of the year) mentioned yesterday has moved south of the forecast area and become nearly stationary over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico as expected. In the mid and upper levels, deep trof that helped push the surface front offshore will move just off the US east coast by Monday, with mid/upper level ridging beginning to build over our area from the west. With this pattern, slightly cooler and dry weather will prevail over our area for the near term. With the lower dew points, clear skies and nearly calm winds tonight, expect low temperatures tonight to be in the upper 60s over most inland locations and low to mid 70s near and along the coast. Abundant sunshine on Monday, with highs in the lower 90s across the entire area.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on cloud cover, with warmer temperatures generally north of the Interstate with more sun, and slightly cooler temperatures to the south where clouds will linger longest. with its ridge axes building into the Pacific Northwest. While at the same time a longwave trough will begin to deepen over the Midwest region.
A weak Canadian cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and northerly winds to the plains on Monday.
Animated satellite imagery and buoy observations show a weak area of low pressure has formed about 110 mi SSW of Apalachicola. Expect overnight lows to be a little cooler in the upper 60s across Southern Georgia/Alabama and near 70 in North Florida.
132 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through the start of the work week. High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions for the rest of the day. High pressure will remain firmly in control through most of this period.
Upper ridge continues to strengthen, with high centered over Nevada into mid week. High pressure and weakening moisture fields should preclude convective development most areas Monday, though kept some mention directly along WY border closest to deeper moisture for Mon afternoon and evening.