Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Watching a cold front move south after 00Z Wednesday, Winds will shift to northerly behind cold front after 00Z towards the end of the TAF period for all sites. Where stronger winds set up - in other words both west and south of where the low is located during the afternoon - will see critical fire weather conditions.
Light east to southeasterly winds this afternoon will help aid in upslope flow keeping temperatures on the cooler than average side in the low to mid 60s. The gradient will continue to strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front that will invade the northwestern counties just after sunrise and push southeast by early afternoon. Behind the cold front from the short term, northwest winds will gust to 20-30 mph to start Wednesday increasing to 40-50 mph by afternoon coupled with peak heating and the strongest mixing.
116 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Dry weather is expected overnight before a warm front lifting north into the MGW, WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain toward dawn. The aforementioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday. Much of Wednesday will feature a brief dry day with strong southerly flow in place ahead of another developing low pressure system. Late Wednesday afternoon and into the evening show model soundings responding to the surge of warmer air and destabilizing.
We are still looking at the cold front arriving early on Wednesday with a few more showers or maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the parishes primarily.
Otherwise the warm front moves back north tomorrow and brings chances for additional rain Tuesday evening followed by widespread cold frontal rains Wednesday.
408 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 High pressure builds in allowing for a moist southerly wind flow through the forecast area.
Later this evening and tonight, a strong cold front will sweep through the area. /NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/ Following the Wednesday morning cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler through the midweek time period. Highs Wednesday afternoon will only be in the lower 70s, and most of the day will be spent in the 50s and 60s with a stout north breeze.
The boundary will move north this morning as a warm front. As the warm front moves into the region, there could be some thunderstorm mainly over portions of northeast Mississippi. Tonight a cold front will be moving into northwest Arkansas. Temperatures will remain seasonal with lows Wednesday morning in the lower 50s to lower 60s. The cold front will move into the Mid-South early Wednesday morning and should move out of the region by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs ranging from the lower 60s to mid 70s. High pressure will start to build into the region Wednesday night with rain ending over southeast sections of the Mid-South.
A rather strong cold front is poised to sweep through the region this evening and overnight as a vigorous upper wave moves through the Plains.
As the occluded low moves into the western Great Lakes region, its associated surface cold front will sweep across our forecast area from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening.
313 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure passing to the south can be expected this afternoon and evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above normal for the first week of April. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
The mid-level trough elongates across Texas today, before kicking east tonight, as a weak 500mb low becomes cut off near Baja California on Wednesday. This will maintain a slight southwesterly to zonal flow aloft, with warmer and drier air arriving into Wednesday. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop just north of the ranchlands tonight as the trough works offshore. A cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon, with a brief relief in the heat, moderate northerly winds, and even drier air, elevating fire weather conditions into the early evening.
A low was seen across the lower MS Valley while a series of lows were dropping SE into the Dakotas. The cold front slated to move through our area this evening into early Wednesday was just nudging into the western parts of the Dakotas. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will gradually increased across the area towards midday as a warm front lifts NE through the area during the afternoon. Better chances will be seen from mid afternoon through the evening when a cold front will move across the region. Temperatures appear on track with highs in the low 50s north to low 60s south.
Then weak sfc ridging follows for late tonight and the winds become light or calm. --Showers return late Tuesday night into Wednesday-- Amplifying upper trough to our west sends a sfc warm front north toward our area late Tuesday night, followed by an occluded front on Wednesday.
The warm front associated with the low will lift north through the cwa tonight. The cold frontal portion of the low extending south of the occlusion will move across the cwa after 08z. Once the cold front moves through, colder air aloft will move overhead. Precipitation will become more scattered and showery in nature for the next couple of days as the upper low slowly moves east.
Warm front will begin to work north through the afternoon and evening hours. Overall QPF with the warm front should be somewhat limited, staying under a tenth of an inch. As the warm front moves north will end up with a brief period of little/no precip around across the south and east for the start of the evening. Cold front and first piece of energy from the deep closed low to the west will head towards the region tonight into Wednesday. Many of the high res models are in the 3- 6Z Wed period with GFS/EC/GEM a few hours later.
Weak warm front remains in place over our northern counties as well at this hour, with temperatures in the upper 50s along the KY border, but in the 60s and 70s to the south. Thick cloud cover should keep low temps up somewhat overnight, and current forecast lows may be on the high side but most areas should still drop into the 50s. Predominant wind direction will shift between 12Z and 00Z as a low pressure passes through the area.
Clouds and rain will keep daytime temperatures a bit cooler than normal for early April. After midnight a cold front will approach from the west and will be knocking on our door by morning and introducing a renewed chance of showers west of I-65 by sunrise. Severe weather chances are limited to Wednesday as a north to south oriented cold front works its way from west to east through the CWA.
That will help push temps to near 70 over our west, while clouds may linger longer and hold temps down in the low-mid 60s east. The mean long wave trof axis is well to the west, and will take some time spilling its cooler/drier in/across the FA.
A strong trough moving across the Northern Plains will induce surface lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado this morning. Our winds will primarily be generated from this surface cyclone rather than extreme winds aloft. A cold front will then quickly move through this evening keeping strong winds going through the early morning hours on Wednesday. A broad vertically stacked low pressure system centered over the upper Great Lakes region will be the dominant synoptic feature for much of the rest of this week.
The energy that spreads across the region today ends up helping form an upper low over the upper Mississippi valley on Wednesday.
Also during the afternoon, a cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma with a cooler and very dry air mass coming down from the northern and central Rockies.
Rain should be in the Nashville area around 9 or 10 am, and become largely scattered in the early afternoon with models really hitting on the northern 2/3 of the mid state through the afternoon as the trough moves east. Still looking like a strong Plains/Midwest trough will dive southeastward, and bring a cold front through the area Wednesday.
Early this morning, a weak wave is pushing through the Midwest, ahead of a developing cold front across the western High Plains. A reinforcing vort lobe rotating around the closed upper low will move through the region Wednesday.
Byrd Active pattern will persist through the end of the work week as the deep upper low over the Upper Midwest slowly tracks to the east during this period. In the meantime, the cold front will exit the region early Wednesday morning with rain tapering off by midday.
Overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a deep low pressure system will track across the ArkLATex region. An MCS will start organizing ahead of the front associated with the deep trough overnight over central MS. However, if there is sufficient forcing ahead of the warm front, it is possible that storms could develop some large hail due to steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE values around 300-500 J/kg across north-central MS. Wrapping around to the back side of the low, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will permeate the rest of the Mid-South through just after noon. Another system moves through Wednesday associated with a cold front trailing down from a deep occluded low over Minnesota.
A band of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the region from the west tonight, ahead of a cold front. The area of lift will shift northeast, and combine with a developing 35 kt low level jet ahead of a cold front to our west, to produce a band of scattered showers shifting north across the CWA through early afternoon. By early evening, a stronger forced band of showers and isolated storms will move in from the northwest ahead of a cold front. The low level jet increases Pwats near 1. Any lingering showers will be exiting eastern IL Wednesday morning, as the dry slot shifts overhead south of a sprawling mid level closed low.
Gusty winds will continue into the day Tuesday, as the trough buckles and sweeps east. As the trough exits to the east Tuesday evening, the general wind flow becomes more northwesterly. There will be an area of wraparound snow from the low, just across the northeastern section of the region. Temperatures across the state will be cooler, but close to normal values.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 56 79 47 67 / 100 20 50 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 54 80 49 66 / 90 40 40 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 52 78 46 66 / 90 40 50 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 52 79 49 65 / 80 70 20 80 20 TN.
There were even a few lightning strikes west of Troy, Montana, north of Elk River, Idaho and also in the higher terrain of Glacier National Park. Our region will continue to be influenced by the cold trough today by keeping the westerly breezes going and the colder than average high temperatures. An upper level ridge begins to build in by Wednesday and will allow for eventual clearing skies late in the day.
South to southwest winds around 10-15 mph will keep temperatures warmer than average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are expected to form along the sea breeze, with additional, stronger storms expected to form between boundary collisions with the sea breeze in the late afternoon, with the higher coverage toward the east coast.
645 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure shifting east across the Tennessee Valley will bring rain showers across the region today. Dry weather will continue tonight as the Ohio Valley is positioned under a building ridge just ahead of a much stronger northern stream system located over the upper Midwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent with timing the cold front associated with this system through the local area Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Best chance of storms will be in northeast Kentucky through the lower Scioto River Valley as SBCAPE of around 500J/kg (per 12km NAM) noses north just ahead of the front. Plenty of effective shear combined with this low-end instability requires some mention of organized convection, which matches marginal risk on SPC's Day 2 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.
443 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 - Warmer today with isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, primarily toward central and northern/NE Missouri.
and Wednesday Patchy dense fog and freezing fog could produce hazardous travel early this morning. Otherwise skies will be mostly cloudy with rain arriving from west during the late afternoon and early evening as an upper low and occluded front approach the area. Additional jet energy rotating around the upper low will make for scattered showers Wednesday, especially in the afternoon. Southwest winds should allow temperatures to rise into the lower 50s in the downslope areas across eastern Wisconsin, except for Door County as it is downstream from the still largely frozen bay.
The High Wind Warning time has been moved up across wrn Nebraska to begin now, at 6 am CDT. The High Wind Watch across wrn and ncntl Nebraska will be converted to a High Wind Warning with start times as early as noon CDT today across wrn Nebraska where deep vertical mixing will tap into strong winds aloft.
Forecast area will remain under a cool west to northwest flow today as we transition from a passing upper level trough to a building ridge of high pressure developing over the eastern Pacific. Winds will not be as strong as yesterday but still in the low advisory range so will be issuing a windy advisory until 2Z this evening for most of the Columbia Basin zones. The building ridge will move inland overnight and Wednesday. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, warmer and with light winds.
1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The 12z sounding at KEY revealed a conditionally unstable environment in the low-levels, modestly capped by a weak inversion based at around 960 mb. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will provide moderate to fresh southeast breezes this afternoon.
High pressure offshore the Mid Atlantic coast extending southwest across the north-central peninsula is supporting a southeast to southerly wind flow over the forecast area this morning. Temperatures will again run above normal with highs topping out in the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over the lower Mississippi valley will support a breezy southeast to southerly wind flow in the 15 to 20 knot range with some higher gusts with seas in the 2 to 4 foot range over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
A lifting warm front separates an air mass with sub-50-degree dew points and the warm, moist Gulf air with dew points pushing 65-70 degrees. A cold front moving into the region could, however, cause enough lift to tap into steeper lapse rates aloft see some thunderstorms develop. A broad upper-level low pressure system will slowly move east across the country through the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler and weather drier across our region.
946 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure shifting east across the Tennessee Valley will bring rain showers across the region today. Dry weather will continue tonight as the Ohio Valley is positioned under a building ridge just ahead of a much stronger northern stream system located over the upper Midwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent with timing the cold front associated with this system through the local area Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Best chance of storms will be in northeast Kentucky through the lower Scioto River Valley as SBCAPE of around 500J/kg (per 12km NAM) noses north just ahead of the front. Plenty of effective shear combined with this low-end instability requires some mention of organized convection, which matches marginal risk on SPC's Day 2 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.
Expect further warming today, followed by a cold front pushing through Wednesday bringing gusty north winds and dangerous conditions for fire spread in the Colorado River Valley. The primary feature of interest is a cold front over far northern Nevada which will push south through the southern Great Basin today and the Mojave Desert this evening and tonight.
This will be ahead of a fast moving cold front approaching from the northwest. The wind will shift to the west/northwest behind the front, and this will bring cooler/much drier air.
Late tonight, a cold front will arrive from the northwest, and will trigger scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms. This will be ahead of a fast moving cold front approaching from the northwest. The wind will shift to the west/northwest behind the front, and this will bring cooler/much drier air.
A cold front will sweep through the area tonight, bringing windy conditions and cooler temperatures back to the region. Later this evening and tonight, a strong cold front will sweep through the area. /Issued 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022/ /Wednesday Onward/ Following the Wednesday morning cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler through the midweek time period. Highs Wednesday afternoon will only be in the lower 70s, and most of the day will be spent in the 50s and 60s with a stout north breeze.
Dry on Wednesday with temperatures trending warmer through the remainder of the work week. High pressure is building up from the southwest today, which will force the jet streak over NE Nevada farther north and east into Idaho and Utah later this morning and into this afternoon.
654 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 - Warmer today with isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, primarily toward central and northern/NE Missouri.
800 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through much of today which will bring mostly sunny skies with little to no chance of precipitation.
(The rest of today ) Quiet weather expected today ahead of the cold front arriving tonight.
Dry on Wednesday with temperatures trending warmer through the remainder of the work week. As high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest this morning, winds gusts are trending lighter. Dry on Wednesday with temperatures trending warmer through the remainder of the work week. High pressure is building up from the southwest today, which will force the jet streak over NE Nevada farther north and east into Idaho and Utah later this morning and into this afternoon.
922 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure passing to the south can be expected this afternoon and into the evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above normal for the first week of April. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
By late morning, a lee-side trough will develop over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. This, combined with fast-moving flow in the low to mid levels will help to generate strong westerly surface winds across west Texas throughout the day. Winds will diminish after sunset, but not for long, as a cold front will move rapidly into the southern Plains overnight.
/issued 408 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/ High pressure builds in allowing for a moist southerly wind flow through the forecast area.
A cold front has crossed SE Idaho, with strong NW flow expected today on the back side of our departing low pressure system. possibly a bit confused by some nocturnal dampening of the sfc winds) supports winds gradually trending down today regionwide north/east of the Snake Plain where occasional gusts into advisory to near-warning criteria should be confined to at/near mntn peaks, so will be dropping the HIGH WIND WARNING for these areas. Expect highs today only topping out in the low 30s to mid 40s. A ridge of high pressure builds in for Wed with light winds, sunshine, and highs rebounding slightly into the 40s to near 50.
it'll be one of the warmer feeling days of the year thus far regardless. The next cold front (dry) should make its way into northwest parts of the area toward mid-morning Wednesday and off the Galveston coast in the early afternoon hours. Breezy, cooler and drier conditions anticipated in its wake.
936 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure passing to the south can be expected this afternoon and into the evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above normal for the first week of April. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
However, the low level winds have shifted and our tornado threat has ended for this event. May see some hail if cores with new development as heights fall off in the upper low core overhead NE TX at this time. We are still looking at the cold front arriving early on Wednesday with a few more showers or maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the parishes primarily.
1015 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through much of today which will bring mostly sunny skies with little to no chance of precipitation.
533 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure passing to the south can be expected this afternoon and evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above normal for the first week of April. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
Winds will decrease in intensity for a few hours early this evening but a cold front will then move through during the late evening hours. A strong trough moving across the Northern Plains will induce surface lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado this morning. Our winds will primarily be generated from this surface cyclone rather than extreme winds aloft. A cold front will then quickly move through this evening keeping strong winds going through the early morning hours on Wednesday. A broad vertically stacked low pressure system centered over the upper Great Lakes region will be the dominant synoptic feature for much of the rest of this week.
Otherwise, the wind advisory looks to be on track as Cove Mountain has already been gusting into the low 40s this morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 54 80 47 65 / 100 10 70 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 53 80 48 64 / 90 80 70 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 52 78 45 64 / 90 10 70 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 51 79 48 63 / 80 90 40 80 10 TN.
May see some hail if cores with new development as heights fall off in the upper low core overhead NE TX at this time. We are still looking at the cold front arriving early on Wednesday with a few more showers or maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the parishes primarily.
Still expect thunderstorms to develop ahead a cold front that is currently over eastern Nebraska as it moves into northwest Missouri later this afternoon.
A cold front in the Plains will move through Arkansas tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Late tonight, a cold front will arrive from the northwest, and will trigger scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms. This will be ahead of a fast moving cold front approaching from the northwest. The wind will shift to the west/northwest behind the front, and this will bring cooler/much drier air.