Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gusty southeast winds will expand across all of western and central North Dakota for Monday as low pressure develops across the Northern High Plains of eastern MT/WY. Quiet weather is expected to continue tonight, though some of the high-resolution short-term models are hinting at a few showers grazing northwest ND as a weak mid-level wave moves through. A large upper low across the western United States will slowly invade the northern Plains by Tuesday.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge moving into the region, nudged by a Pacific trough approaching the west coast and set to make landfall near the Bay Area by 06Z Tuesday.
Latest NWP guidance suggests that the aforementioned cold front will track slowly southeastward over the course of the day tomorrow, reaching the I-65 corridor by early afternoon and exiting our southeastern counties late Monday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist in the warm/moist airmass ahead of the slow-moving cold front, as temperatures should have sufficient time to reach the upper 70s for most of the region (supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range once again). Showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will end across northeastern AL Monday evening, with a brief period of dry conditions following in its wake. However, beginning early Tuesday morning, weather conditions across the TN Valley will become increasingly influenced by a large cutoff upper low dropping southward across western IL.
On Monday night, the closed low pressure area will continue to move slowly southeast away from the region. Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s, On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will slowly build across the region. Like yesterday, it looks like the clouds will linger into the day, so lowered the high temperatures into the mid- and upper 60s which is much closer to the NAM MOS guidance than the GFS MOS guidance.
Temperatures remain cooler on Monday as the main surge of warmer air will be focused just to the west of our location.
The low pressure system slowly advancing toward Utah will produce even stronger southerly winds across Utah through Monday. Very warm, dry conditions Monday will give way to cooler and unsettled weather conditions behind a cold front midweek.
131 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 VFR will give way to periods of MVFR cigs the remainder of the morning as deeper moisture moves into the region ahead of a frontal trough with prevailing MVFR cigs/vsbys possible after 18Z as SHRA/TSRA develop over the area. For the rest of tonight, Tropical Storm Arthur will continue to pull away from the region as a trough moves toward the area. Most of tonight should remain dry once the ongoing convection peters out, but then Monday looks like it should be more active as the trough enhances shower and thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the peninsula in a marginal risk for severe storms as this trough approaches and strong diurnal heating leads to moderate instability. Weak ridging will then build into the area for the rest of the week.
345 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 The closed upper low continues to rotate over the Midwest region while a secondary upper trough is just off the northwest coastline. Ridging is continuing to build over the Intermountain West, bringing a welcome break from rain chances the next few days in the area. Expect the cloud deck to once again mix out by mid afternoon, allowing pleasant temps in the low and middle 70s to return to northeast Kansas. The upper ridge begins to elongate into the plains this evening, slowing the cutoff low as it's blocked by Tropical Storm Arthur in the Atlantic.
Locally, temperatures generally in the lower and mid 70s, with dew points just under those levels. Impulses will occasionally wrap around this low for the next several days. Drier forecasts would mean warmer high temperatures, similar to the NAM solutions, but will go slightly cooler than that for the most part.
Clouds will continue to scatter out as the upper trof axis over La makes eastward progress and surface and upper ridging starts building overhead.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ An upper low/trough is over Louisiana and Arkansas with another upper low/trough over Iowa. Upper ridging is developing over southeast New Mexico and West Texas with another upper trough just off the west coast. Temperatures today will be a little warmer than yesterday with south to southeast winds. The upper ridge over the region will continue to strengthen and build northward on Monday. The upper ridge continues into Tuesday with temperatures heating up into the triple digits across most of the area. The previously mentioned upper trough to the west moves eastward over the western conus.
Sfc analysis shows an associated area of low pressure over nern MS providing a nrly low-level flow over the forecast area, while weak high pressure is noted over the wrn Gulf. Obs indicate cooler conditions behind the weak cool front with temps mainly in the 60s (roughly 5-10 degrees below this time yesterday) at this time. As thicknesses creep upward, will see temps warm a bit for tomorrow with highs progged in the lower 90s for a good portion of the forecast area tomorrow.
Surface analysis early this morning places a weak cold front across portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Short term models and Convective Allowing Model solutions still indicate a potential for a few rain showers along the weak cold front as it slowly pushes east this morning. Rain chances will diminish throughout the day with cooler highs in the 70s today and middle 60s to middle 70s on Tuesday with lows tonight falling back into the 50s.
410 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper low will remain over the region through the middle of the week and bring cool weather and rounds of rain, especially through Tuesday. The center of an upper low was drifting east and moving into northwest Illinois. The cold front was well east of the low over Indiana where the front was occluding. The upper low will be completely blocked off with out anywhere to move, making for a very challenging forecast. Given model consensus with the low dropping south of the Ohio River, deformation zones rains are expected south of Highway 30 tonight.
322 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Upper-level ridge will persist over the area though trapped layer of H7 moisture presents an opportunity for some virga showers. Dry and hot weather is expected for the early-middle part of the work week as the omega block across the CONUS keeps the ridge centered over the Great Plains region.
NW winds will increase during the day and gust to 20 kts at times as high pressure builds into the area. Low pressure continues to move through eastern Arkansas and across the Mississippi River. High pressure will build into the state tonight and bring northwest winds with it. As a cold front moves across the state, winds will turn out of the NW and much drier air will begin to filter in. From tonight through Tuesday, the northern H500 low over Iowa attm will begin to work its way southward (just east of the forecast area) thanks to amplified ridging across the Southern Plains. Rain chances appear very limited, but an increase in cloud cover could be seen given the proximity to the upper low.
1146 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A sfc cold front from near STL to UNO will shift east. The persistent upper level blocking pattern will continue, gradually trying to break down or shift eastward toward the weekend. A persistent upper low just off to our east over the OH and TN Valley region will keep the cyclonic flow aloft over MO through Wed and can see periods of clouds, sprinkles, and cool temperatures sticking around awhile. Temperatures will gradually moderate by the end of the week as the upper low weakens and shifts east and upper level ridging moves over the area.
South winds this morning will veer to southwest and eventually northwest later today as a cold front moves across the area.
An ongoing dry pattern will continue today into tonight as ridging aloft moves slowly across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Should see afternoon highs up into the 80s(F) in west central and southwest Kansas with the mid/upper 70s(F) possible in central Kansas where cooler air will be slower to erode. Similar conditions to Monday are likely Tuesday as a ridge axis aloft shifts only slightly to the east giving way to a southwesterly flow developing across the high plains of western Kansas late in the day.
Upper ridging dominates the region, keeping us mostly dry and quite warm. Today's highs will be in the low to mid 90s, which is around 5-7 degrees warmer than normal, generally speaking. Even warmer than Monday will be Tuesday with highs in the upper 90s and near 100 for most of the area, and up to 104 in the Rio Grande Plains.
217 AM MDT Mon May 18 2020 Water vapor shows amplifying ridge over the plains with upper low digging along the west coast. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with gusty south/southeast winds from northeast WY into northwest SD. Warm and dry weather expected through Tuesday with upper ridge largely in control over the northern plains.
Currently, upper level ridge axis remains quasi-stationary across the Great Plains, with a closed upper low over the Midwest and a large closed low off the west coast. Ridge axis remains parked aloft today, though the west coast upper low does start to move onshore.
(Today and tonight) The short term forecast looks dry as we'll remain under a building ridge of high pressure with seasonably average temperatures. Clear night skies and light variable winds will continue to enhance radiational cooling through the morning, making it feel slightly cooler than our previous morning. Skies should remain mostly clear today, with just a few high clouds coming down the upper ridge from the Central High Plains. Expect a light east breeze for tonight under mostly clear skies, with just enough wind keeping low temperatures for Tuesday just a little bit warmer.
/issued 247 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper ridging will build into the region Monday, suppressing shower and thunderstorms development.
1111 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 The upper-level low pressure system that brought yesterday and today's rain will finally begin to exit the area this evening.
Could see broken low clouds develop over northwest Arkansas today as upper low drops southeast into the mid Mississippi river valley. Otherwise, dry/mild conditions expected for the next few days as weak ridging at the surface persists.
A low pressure system will be approaching the area through the TAF period, bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and MVFR conditions. In the afternoon, an approaching cold front will bring showers with embedded thunderstorms that will track west to east through the evening.
Did not include rain chances with this due to AR residing on the SW side of the upper low beneath a region of large scale forcing for subsidence. Drier and cooler air will continue to advect into the region on gusty northwest winds today. In fact, winds may gust upwards of 25 mph in some locations during the afternoon hours, especially across the higher terrain of the Ozarks into portions of C AR. In the wake of the departing trough, a highly amplified ridge will move into the C plains. Winds will remain NWrly through the period with lows in the 50s, possibly upper 40s across the higher terrain. On Tuesday, high temperatures will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
A strong, late season low pressure system will bring windy conditions to Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.
An ongoing dry pattern will continue today into tonight as ridging aloft moves slowly across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Should see afternoon highs up into the 80s(F) in west central and southwest Kansas with the mid/upper 70s(F) possible in central Kansas where cooler air will be slower to erode. 12z medium range models continue to depict impressive upper ridging aloft, from Minnesota to Mexico, with strong subsidence persisting over Kansas.
The stout trough that has been in our lives for what feels like eternity continues to churn over the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. On the windward side of the low, low clouds continue to impact portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Airmass RGB does a decent job capturing the higher moisture content on the backside of the trough. Expect this low cloud activity to hang around through the morning hours, only shifting eastward through the afternoon.
An upper low was positioned immediately offshore from NWRN CA early Monday morning. A persistent zone of ascent was located east of the low, and was aiding in moderate shower development spreading east-northeast across the Humboldt and Mendocino coasts. The upper low is forecast to move southeast to the CA/NV border late tonight. Widespread showery regime will continue across NW CA today as a deep upper trough moves overhead. Showers will taper off during the evening as the trough axis clears the area. Northerlies will begin to increase on Tuesday and persist for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds offshore behind the departing trough.
/issued 322 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ Upper-level ridge will persist over the area though trapped layer of H7 moisture presents an opportunity for some virga showers. Dry and hot weather is expected for the early-middle part of the work week as the omega block across the CONUS keeps the ridge centered over the Great Plains region.
A low pressure system off the south Oregon coast early Monday morning will slowly move inland across California and Nevada today and Tuesday.
645 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Upper level ridging builds across the region today ahead of a large upper trough that will be moving onshore the west coast. Meanwhile another upper low will be slowly moving southeast across the Mississippi Valley region. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central U.
/issued 444 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Hot and rain-free conditions will rule the short term as mid to upper-level high pressure builds and remains wedged across our region. At the surface, high pressure is centered just off the lower Texas coast this morning, resulting in light winds at 5 MPH or less. Rain chances are near zero due to very dry air in the low-levels.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Hot and rain-free conditions will rule the short term as mid to upper-level high pressure builds and remains wedged across our region. At the surface, high pressure is centered just off the lower Texas coast this morning, resulting in light winds at 5 MPH or less. Rain chances are near zero due to very dry air in the low-levels.
620 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 (Today and tonight) The short term forecast looks dry as we'll remain under a building ridge of high pressure with seasonably average temperatures. Clear night skies and light variable winds will continue to enhance radiational cooling through the morning, making it feel slightly cooler than our previous morning. Skies should remain mostly clear today, with just a few high clouds coming down the upper ridge from the Central High Plains. Expect a light east breeze for tonight under mostly clear skies, with just enough wind keeping low temperatures for Tuesday just a little bit warmer.
Warmer. For tonight, overnight lows will also be warmer than usual mid May lows.
Early this morning, amplified upper level ridging continues to move over the nation's mid-section as an exiting strong closed low spins over eastern Iowa this morning. At the surface, a large area of high pressure extends southwest into central Nebraska with continued northerly low-level flow over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Continued cloudy conditions today, especially in our Iowa counties, should keep temperatures ranging from the low 60s in Iowa to around 70 in our west. A pleasant day is forecast for Tuesday with light winds, mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s.
313 AM MDT Mon May 18 2020 Synoptic Setup: A ridge of hot air runs from New Mexico up the high Plains of Colorado, Wyoming, eastern Montana and crests over southern Saskatchewan. Behind this A large trough sits over the coasts of northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Today through Tuesday: Ridge will remain in place due to a blocking pattern farther east.
635 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 12Z TAFS The upper level ridge responsible for the disturbed weather over the last couple of days continues to depart to the east with ridging beginning to build across the region this morning. Sfc analysis shows an associated area of low pressure over nern MS providing a nrly low-level flow over the forecast area, while weak high pressure is noted over the wrn Gulf. Obs indicate cooler conditions behind the weak cool front with temps mainly in the 60s (roughly 5-10 degrees below this time yesterday) at this time. As thicknesses creep upward, will see temps warm a bit for tomorrow with highs progged in the lower 90s for a good portion of the forecast area tomorrow.
An amplifying upper ridge continues to sit over the Central High Plains with high pressure building over the region. Return flow around the high combined with light winds and radiational cooling may produce some patchy fog across the eastern part of the CWA Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warm with highs ranging from the low to mid-80s.
Low level clouds/moisture was moving back into the region from the north early this morning as an upper level low centered across eastern Iowa moves south-southeast. 850mb-925mb moisture looks to remain above 80% for most of the day and evening therefore a cloudy day is in store, which will keep high temperatures about 10-15 degrees below average, in the lower-middle 60s. Clouds tonight will keep temps in the lower 50s. By Tuesday morning the upper low will be across western Kentucky with several lobes of energy spinning around it. Highs should be a few degrees warmer in the middle to upper 60s however will be highly dependent on how thick the cloud cover is as the low level flow will still be northerly.
Rain shower activity will intensify on Tuesday over the Northern Rockies, as a closed low pressure circulation is projected to move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast.
A strong, late season low pressure system will bring windy conditions to Arizona today and Tuesday.
Heat will be the main talking point through the short term as high pressure builds overhead. Rising heights, calm winds, and clear skies will lead to temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low 90s across the area today, then into the mid 90s on Tuesday. The high temperatures the next couple of days will get within a few degrees of the record high max temperatures at all of our climate sites.
508 AM MDT Mon May 18 2020 Water vapor shows amplifying ridge over the plains with upper low digging along the west coast. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with gusty south/southeast winds from northeast WY into northwest SD. Warm and dry weather expected through Tuesday with upper ridge largely in control over the northern plains.
Dry and relatively quiet early this morning, as upper level ridge is in place. Rising heights will be the trend today as stronger and more energetic flow stays well west, tied to an upper level low approaching the west coast. Some of the CAMs this morning are hinting at some very isolated and brief precip development late this afternoon across the plains, along lee trough and dry line. Dewpoints in the 20s and 30s expected to quickly fall by around midday into the afternoon, falling to the low teens and single digits.
Deterministic runs predict the CWA/MSA to remain under the ridge asssociated with an omega block pattern during the period.
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 434 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Issued at 434 AM Mon May 18 2020 Large-scale upper low responsible for this past weekend's precip continues to slowly inch to the east this morning. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail in the east thanks to continued cloud cover and rain chances (mid/upper 50s), while western zones see gradual warming under clearing skies (mid/upper 60s). Dry conditions will return area wide this evening as high pressure begins building in aloft. This should result in a gradual clearing trend as a ridge of high pressure noses in from the northeast. Upper-level ridging to become more entrenched over the upper Midwest on Tuesday as omega blocking pattern sets up over the CONUS.
913 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 A cold front continues to march into the Tennessee Valley region this morning as an upper-low slowly pivots south into the lower Ohio Valley. The upper low will be dropping into western KY by early Tuesday morning, then drop into the middle TN on Tuesday. The cold pocket in mid levels will produce modest lapse rates and CAPE that will lead to showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms, especially closer to the upper low in TN. The clouds and rain will keep high temperatures in the u60s-a70 in valleys and m60s atop the higher plateau areas. The showers will continue through Tuesday night, especially near the upper low that slows down over eastern portions of middle TN.
A backdoor cold front may sag south of the Red River toward our far northern counties overnight, but this boundary is expected to stay north of KABI. Warmer. For tonight, overnight lows will also be warmer than usual mid May lows.
Mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures will be the rule as an upper low pressure system gets cut off and meanders around the Ohio valley. Strong low pressure was found over NE Illinois late this morning. The low is expected to drift southeast today. forecast soundings show attainable convective temperatures and cyclonic flow across the area will result in favorable conditions for isolated showers within the circulation of the low. Given the expected cloud cover trended highs cooler than the NBM. Rain will continue tonight and Tuesday as low pressure meanders south through Indiana and then starts heading southwest Tuesday night. The ample moisture supply along with a very slowly moving low pressure system and spokes of upper forcing will keep rain and a few thunderstorms over central Indiana until instability runs out when the low gets further south.
324 AM MDT Mon May 18 2020 A rather unsettled weather pattern will be in place through midweek as a strong upper low currently off the Oregon Coast will influence local weather.
422 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Upper level ridging builds across the region today ahead of a large upper trough that will be moving onshore the west coast. Meanwhile another upper low will be slowly moving southeast across the Mississippi Valley region. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central U.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain control of the weather pattern across the area through the short range.
706 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper low will remain over the region through the middle of the week and bring cool weather and rounds of rain, especially through Tuesday. The center of an upper low was drifting east and moving into northwest Illinois. The cold front was well east of the low over Indiana where the front was occluding. The upper low will be completely blocked off with out anywhere to move, making for a very challenging forecast. Given model consensus with the low dropping south of the Ohio River, deformation zones rains are expected south of Highway 30 tonight.
Middle Tennessee is currently sandwiched between two upper lows. Looking west, more showers can be seen along the cold front just east of the Mississippi River. The break in the rain will not last long as a few scattered showers will possibly drop out of the north as the northern upper low begins to drift southward over our area. By 12z Tuesday, the upper low will be centered just north of Stewart County.