Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few flat cumulus are a reminder of our wet ground conditions, we we are maintaining the lower to mid 50 dewpoints into the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 70s appear on target today, making for a very pleasant day. The high pressure will move east tonight, allowing winds to shift to the south, and with that, hopefully keeping the fog from being much of a problem tonight. Temperatures will still fall to the lower to mid 50s, as the air is dry, but with the wind increasing, this should not quite bottom out to below the crossover temperatures near 50. Clouds will increase late in the day, as the cold front approaches. A fast moving cold front will arrive Tuesday evening, mainly after sunset.
/issued 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ Deep upper trough to our west will continue to move down the West Coast today before stalling over SOCAL and southern AZ tomorrow. South to southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will continue to advect moisture into the area.
529 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Latest analysis places an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper trough over Montana and Idaho, extending to an upper low over Nevada. Dry weather is expected tonight with temperatures a little warmer than last night. The upper trough will split as it moves eastward on Tuesday. Band of 850-700mb frontogenesis will develop as another push of cooler air crosses the forecast area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be very limited.
Prefrontal trough in place will dissipate tonight. A fairly deep trough in the Northeast will drive a weak frontal boundary towards the area. The broad zonal flow will continue for a day or two before mid level ridging builds across the southeast. A dry cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning. Prefrontal trough inland dissipates tonight but wind remains out of the SW over the waters as a weak ridge of high pressure remains off the coast.
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A sfc cold front is pushing south of the Ohio River this afternoon, with winds quickly veering northwesterly and stratus scattering out behind the front. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 50s Tuesday morning, and would not be surprised to see a rural valley location dip into the upper 40s. Mostly sunny, low humidity, and highs in the lower 80s.
826 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 High pressure was the dominant weather feature on Monday, keeping skies mostly sunny. Winds are expected to shift back to the south on Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures back, with highs in the upper 70s.
/issued 129 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ An area of low pressure will move to the southeast of the area tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds in over Northern California and the Great Basin on Tuesday.
513 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area later today and this evening.
810 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move through the area late tonight. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the Southeastern CONUS through tonight. A weak cold front still west of the Appalachians is still forecast to push into the forecast area late tonight.
A cold front is pushing South of the area. /issued 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ A cold front currently stretches from near Nashville to Little Rock. High pressure will build into much of the Mid-South on Tuesday.
318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 The upper level low will continue to dig south through the deep Desert Southwest and into Baja tonight and Tuesday. The current southwest flow aloft and cirrus shield ahead of this system will get displaced with the passage of a weak but dry trough late tonight. Behind this weak trough, drier west/northwest flow aloft develops with clearing skies late tonight.
735 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area later today and this evening.
623 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move through the area late tonight. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the Southeastern CONUS through tonight. A weak cold front currently extending through eastern Kentucky and Tennessee will move into the forecast area tonight.
/22/ Tonight and Tuesday: While the mid levels will pretty much remain unchanged with sprawling ridge maintaining control, at the surface a cold front will move into northern portions tonight bringing a chance of light showers. Thus, the front looks to hang up along the Highway 82 corridor Tuesday with the majority of the convection out ahead over central sections.
A low pressure system moving south through California will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over northern Arizona through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight over northern Arizona as a closed low moves south through southern California. The low will move over the northern Sea of Cortez by Tuesday morning.
A slow-moving cold front continues to inch its way southeastward across Middle Tennessee this evening with a few showers still lingering. ago, but looking upstream, cooler air with considerably lower dew points is headed our way.
1100 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Latest analysis places an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper trough over Montana and Idaho, extending to an upper low over Nevada. Dry weather is expected tonight with temperatures a little warmer than last night. The upper trough will split as it moves eastward on Tuesday. Band of 850-700mb frontogenesis will develop as another push of cooler air crosses the forecast area on Tuesday night, but moisture will be very limited.
Other than some cirrus we should have plenty of sunshine so went above guidance once again for afternoon highs, in the lower and middle 80s. Tonight the high will shift east to the WV/VA border with light return flow commencing in central Kentucky and southern Indiana after midnight.
A cold front has moved through the forecast area early this morning with little or no precipitation. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front this morning. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s in most areas.
Progressive upper level pattern expected today with a weak cold front passing through the region. with ridge of high pressure to the south influencing the area and bringing warming temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is between 5 and 10 degrees above normal.
Much cooler and unsettled weather is likely late this week and into the weekend. The warm frontal swath of precipitation which came by earlier is heading east, but the other threat of showers is coming into northern WA.
140 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area later today and this evening.
/issued 352 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/ Yesterday's cold front has essentially dissipated with no evidence of a surface temperature gradient today. The highest probabilities are along and east of I-35 and along and south of I-40.
403 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move into the area today. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Weakening cold front continues to struggle to cross the mountains intact with satellite imagery showing clouds dissipating across the Upstate.
A low pressure system moving through western Arizona will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over northern Arizona through late tonight.
Otherwise, lee troughing will continue with a light southerly breeze through the short term period. A front will sink southward midweek and could bring us some cooler (more seasonable) temperatures. Winds early Tuesday morning will become more southwesterly and these southwest winds will continue during the day ahead of a cold front that will be moving across southwest Kansas this afternoon.
Upper level trough axis will quickly swing east of the area this morning. With the cooler air aloft, would expect CU to develop across most of the area, the thickest of which would lie generally north of PIT. With the cooler airmass overspreading the region, seasonal temperatures are expected today.
126 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 VFR conditions currently across the terminals as a cold front approaches from the west.
344 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure centered over Kentucky will provide dry weather today.
1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 High pressure was the dominant weather feature on Monday, keeping skies mostly sunny. Winds are expected to shift back to the south on Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures back, with highs in the upper 70s.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates an upper level trough across the Northeastern U. with a ridge across the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front is moving across the forecast area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s across middle Tennessee and dewpoints still in the mid to upper 60s across east Tennessee. Not seeing much in the way of returns on current radar imagery, but have held onto PoPs across the higher elevations with northwesterly flow providing some lift for a few isolated showers. The cold front will continue to progress across the area early this morning with dry air moving in behind the departing front. Not seeing much cold air advection behind the departing boundary as the ridge across the Gulf Coast expands northward today into tonight with rising upper level heights.
This could become a factor as a cold frontal boundary develops over the central plains creating convergence down into NE Kansas this afternoon.
/Today through Monday/ Upper trof is digging into the northern Rockies and Plains with an associated 130kt+ jet coming into the west coast of British Columbia this morning. Warm advection will intensify ahead of this trof today with south to southwest winds strengthening across Iowa. By late tonight, most of the convection will be out of the forecast area with a drier and cooler airmass overspreading the state.
Upstream dewpoints are generally in the low 50s providing an approximate floor for temps under clear skies and light winds. Deep layer subsidence beneath strong upper ridge will favor clear skies through Tuesday temperatures slightly warmer than average values in the mid 70s for most areas.
A potent upper jet sliding across the northern tier of states will force another cold front down into the region by tomorrow or tomorrow night.
Current surface observations suggest that a cold front extends from southwestern TN northwestward into south-central KY this evening, with low-level moisture continuing to pool across the local area immediately south of the front. Due to both the weak nature of the postfrontal anticyclone and unfavorable orientation of flow aloft, the cold front is expected to make only slow southward progress for the remainder of the night. Thus, although winds may veer to the north for the entire region prior to sunrise, the arrival of cooler/drier air will delayed to the point that low temps were increased by 1-2 degrees for much of the region, and especially across the southeastern half of the CWFA. Drier and cooler air look to advect into the area again behind this frontal boundary.
Dewpoints were generally in the lower 50s. However one only has to look in northeast Oklahoma to see that a high quality moisture airmass and warm front was quickly approaching. PW values around 2 inches, 850mb dewpoints around 17C and surface dewpoints in the 70s F were located along and south of a warm front that stretched from southern Kansas, to Tulsa Oklahoma, to near Fort Smith Arkansas. Overnight will watch a cold front slide southeast across northern Kansas into northwest Missouri.
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 The morning surface analysis reveals an area of high pressure is pushing east and is centered across southeast MO this morning. The biggest concern will be afternoon highs given the drier air, but think the more northerly flow should keep temperatures in the lower 80s versus mid 80s. The high will progress east tonight under zonal flow aloft across the Ohio Valley. The afternoon dewpoints will be key to the lows tonight and certainly think under these conditions we will see upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys and low to mid 50s on the ridges. Again valley fog becomes a concern, but probably most prevalent in the river valleys given the low temperatures expected.
202 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move through the area late tonight. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the Southeastern CONUS through tonight. A weak cold front still west of the Appalachians is still forecast to push into the forecast area late tonight.
435 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area later today and this evening.
Deep layer ridge settles just south of the area as a weak cold front stalls over central Georgia. Highs in the lower/mid 90s inland to upper 80s/near 90 coast with an afternoon seabreeze.
138 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 07z surface analysis had low over northern MB with trailing cold front into central WY. Today, dry cold front slices through the CWA.
350 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper low is over southern California/Arizona with southwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
1126 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area later today and this evening.
2 AM temperatures have dipped into the mid 50s in most locations, which are the lowest temperatures since mid June. Temperatures will top out slightly above normal today in the low 80s, but with dewpoints in the lower 50s, it will feel rather nice compared to what we've dealt with most of the month. This will also keep temps a little warmer tonight, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
111 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A weak cold front will move into the area Tuesday and then slowly dissipate through mid week. High pressure will then return this weekend. Previous Discussion: Late this evening: Dry high pressure will prevail across the forecast area ahead of a cold front poised to approach from the northwest overnight.
The upper level low will continue to dig south through the deep Desert Southwest and into Baja tonight and Tuesday. The current southwest flow aloft and cirrus shield ahead of this system will get displaced with the passage of a weak but dry trough late tonight. Behind this weak trough, drier west/northwest flow aloft develops with clearing skies late tonight.
The center of the ridging at 500 mb will move to a position near the Florida panhandle by this afternoon. This is probably due to the overall weakness of the boundary and lack of lift with upper ridging in the area. High temperatures will once again be above average, reaching the low to mid 90s across most of the area away from the immediate coast.
/issued 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ An upper low is over southern California/Arizona with southwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure is going to build into the area today and lingering into Wednesday.
508 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A bit of relief will overtake the Mid-South today, with high temperatures in the mid 80s thanks to the passing cold front. The front will continue to sink south as high pressure builds into the area bringing dewpoint temperatures into the lower 50s. By Wednesday, rain chances increase as a weak cold front slowly moves into the area from the north.
Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low to mid 50s east of the CO/KS border. a cold front moves through the area in the morning.
Progressive upper level pattern expected today with a weak cold front passing through the region. with ridge of high pressure to the south influencing the area and bringing warming temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. High pressure will take residence off the Southeast coast with an increasingly moist return flow at the sfc Wed night through Thurs. A fairly zonal flow will exist over the Carolinas as a mid to upper trough moves across the Great Lakes pushing a cold front east. High pressure will build down behind this front with a weakened front/trough between high pressure off shore and next high building down from the NW. Weak troughiness at the sfc will exist over the Coastal Carolinas between high pressure to the NW and another high off shore.
643 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Widespread low cloud stratus layer to start the day, though high clouds still are blocking much of the view near KCDS. While much of our guidance does not convect storms this afternoon, some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and the NAM do.
An upper trough is expected to move across the region today causing a surface cold front to move across the region throughout the day. Due to this, much of the guidance keeps the development of any thunderstorms confined to the Highway 81 corridor and east. The cold front should exit the forecast area by around 10pm tonight.
But there is some evidence that enough moisture could make its way to the western periphery of the 850mb Bermuda ridge extention to give somewhat of a chance of rain over the weekend. The GFS starts to lean more to a climo output past 132 hours, so its not very surprising to see it showing a relatively strong cold front approaching by 240 hours.
Biggest adjustment was to lower dewpoints across the higher terrain for this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 60 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 58 89 65 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 84 60 / 10 0 0 10.
Looking aloft, weak ridging was evident across Central TX into the N Gulf Coast but a persistent weakness along the northwest flank of this ridge axis will continue to provide the upward forcing necessary for scattered convection today across our northern most zones.
443 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Persistent cloud cover and some precipitation yesterday kept temperatures cooler across the San Juan river valley. The cut off low pressure will continue to drift towards the Gulf of California and the associated moisture will push south as well.
Overnight temperatures will generally be in the 50s with the exception across the Pine Ridge region where lows could drop into the upper 40s.
642 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move into the area today. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Weakening cold front continues to struggle to cross the mountains intact with satellite imagery showing clouds dissipating across the Upstate. Upper ridge shifting slightly south with resulting zonal flow. Max temperatures above normal in the low 90s.
/Issued 422 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ An inverted trough/easterly wave will move onshore today bringing a surge of moisture with PWATS around 2 inches. Drier air will move in starting tonight with upper level high pressure over the Gulf Coast states, so have PoPs limited to 20% over the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday.
A deep and cold trough will set up over the Great Basin beginning late week bringing widespread precipitation to the region.
While much of our guidance does not convect storms this afternoon, some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and the NAM do.
Clear skies cover the region as the eastern Pacific ridge extends into NorCal. The strongest winds will be over the mountains and foothills tonight, especially across the exposed ridges and northeast oriented canyons of the Sierra Nevada and foothills.
With high pressure at both the surface and aloft holding firmly in place across the northern Gulf of Mexico, this boundary will eventually stall over the CWA. With some lingering clouds through the overnight hours, lows tonight will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.
A weak cold front will bring low chances for showers on Wednesday. High pressure expected to persist to keep conditions dry today, but the high center will drift eastwards throughout the day to allow winds to turn out of the south-southwest. Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to drop across the upper Midwest, and an associated weak frontal boundary will slowly drop into northern IL. Aforementioned boundary and upper trough move across the area over the course of the day Wednesday.
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure centered over Kentucky will provide dry weather today. A cold front will bring increasing clouds, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers on Wednesday.
840 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 A cold front has dropped south through north AL, allowing northerly flow to develop. A cooler trend should be evident tonight under generally clear skies and light winds. Lows should fall into the mid 50s to around 60 by daybreak Wednesday - a good 10-15 degrees cooler than they are so far. Although the seemingly permanent upper level ridge (now displaced over the Gulf Coast) will move somewhat more to the south over the next few days.
Other than some cirrus we should have plenty of sunshine so went above guidance once again for afternoon highs, in the lower and middle 80s. Tonight the high will shift east to the WV/VA border with light return flow commencing in central Kentucky and southern Indiana after midnight. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest during the day and models indicate the potential for some precipitation to develop ahead of the front by the evening.
Dewpoints were generally in the lower 50s. However one only has to look in northeast Oklahoma to see that a high quality moisture airmass and warm front was quickly approaching. PW values around 2 inches, 850mb dewpoints around 17C and surface dewpoints in the 70s F were located along and south of a warm front that stretched from southern Kansas, to Tulsa Oklahoma, to near Fort Smith Arkansas. Overnight will watch a cold front slide southeast across northern Kansas into northwest Missouri. The area will be just south of the higher mid/upper level flow however.
602 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Evening A conditional threat for strong to severe storms will exist from 6 PM to 11 PM this evening/tonight as a low pressure system moves quickly through the region. While the HREF suggests surface dew points will be mainly in the mid and upper 60s, the RAP and NAM suggest the potential for these dew points to climb into the lower 70s. This will cap the region off until the low pressure system can get close enough to potentially weaken the cap ahead of this front this evening. If the cap does NOT break (which has been a consistent signal in the model soundings), the strong turning in the low levels will NOT be able to be ingested into the updrafts.
an upper level low over Arizona is forecast to drop south into northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, an upper trough is passing well to the north. A weak cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains this morning.
Another day with above normal temperatures, with thunderstorms An upper level closed low has stalled out across southern AZ with southwesterly flow aloft continuing across western Texas. We should still see afternoon thunderstorms develop as a weak upper level trough embedded in the southwesterly flow moves across the region.
/issued 508 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ A bit of relief will overtake the Mid-South today, with high temperatures in the mid 80s thanks to the passing cold front. The front will continue to sink south as high pressure builds into the area bringing dewpoint temperatures into the lower 50s. By Wednesday, rain chances increase as a weak cold front slowly moves into the area from the north.
422 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An inverted trough/easterly wave will move onshore today bringing a surge of moisture with PWATS around 2 inches. Drier air will move in starting tonight with upper level high pressure over the Gulf Coast states, so have PoPs limited to 20% over the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday.