Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that moved in from Sonora. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under extensive cloud cover today.
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U. coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on Friday. An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
/issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Deep layer ridge has flattened somewhat. The larger scale subsidence brought about by the mid level ridge and forecast BUFR soundings showing a resultant mid-level inversion acts to keep most of the area rain-free. /10 We expect to see at least a partial breakdown of the broad ridging that's been in place over the region heading into the weekend.
224 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Aside from scattered showers that will impact the western Southern Tier this afternoon, conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will dominate the region.
156 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure tracking across Ohio will keep thunderstorms in the forecast today into tonight.
1122 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016 Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Upper level low parked off the Washington coast will move slowly inland through the afternoon. For tonight the forecast gets more interesting as the deep upper low moves in.
353 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure and a cold front will slowly push south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region Friday into Friday night.
114 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The thunderstorm chance should increase as the cold front sinks farther southward and moves into the forecast area Friday night. The models also indicate upper ridging suppressed farther southward. Still, with surface ridging south of the area limiting moisture, thunderstorm coverage may remain limited. We leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence ahead of the front and into the lee-side trough and expected strong instability, but still kept the pops in the chance category. Forecasted the highest chance in the north section closer to greater upper-level support. H85 westerly flow and temperatures near 22 C ahead of the cold front plus recent verification favored the higher temperature guidance Friday.
112 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016 A low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring increased winds to much of our area through Friday evening.
445 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15 kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat will be lowered.
Ridging aloft will dominate with slightly drier air across the north, where the 12Z RAOBS have PWAT values around 1. The axis of broad Atlantic high pressure will continue to reside through northern FL with a prevailing light east to southeast flow level flow. Current forecasts have the highest odds of showers and storms south of the I-4 corridor and just inland.
/issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Low clouds may develop across far southeast counties late tonight, otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
250 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Typical summertime weather to continue through the weekend, as the upper level ridge remains anchored over the srn CONUS.
Winds aloft remain gusty though so ridges will remain up all night, and some higher elevations will also see a few gusts. Cooler and less windy tomorrow behind the weakening front as flow becomes more N-NW. The ridge then slowly rebuilds over the weekend with warming temperatures.
While no lightning has been observed yet, the convection could grow enough to reach well above the freezing level and potentially cause some lightning strikes to occur this morning. Also, a 500mb ridge sits generally to the west, but does periodically build closer to the region, mainly centered to the north.
227 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Aside from scattered showers that will impact the western Southern Tier this afternoon, conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will dominate the region.
308 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 A low pressure system will move east across the region tonight and Friday.
615 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region Friday through the weekend.
/18Z TAFS/ VFR conditions expected today under high pressure as scattered clouds along and east of I-35 remain above 3500 feet.
341 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Expansive upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our weather, at least in the short term. As a weakness in the mid-level ridge develops over the weekend, this upper-low will slowly begin to track northward into the Big Bend of Texas. While surface convergence will remain weak/diffuse, cooling mid- level temperatures and an uptick in lift near the low will provide some opportunities for diurnally-driven convection this weekend.
A cold front can now be analyzed generally from just south of the CWA in Ohio to just north of the Mason-Dixon line in Pennsylvania. This will continue southward tonight with low level moisture likely remaining pooled west of the ridges, slowing clearing in the heart of the CWA while the northern fringe and southern fringe start to scatter out. The aforementioned pool of moisture will likely be slow to erode along and west of ridges going into Friday. Fries By Friday night high pressure will be the dominant feature and will result in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures through the weekend.
304 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows upper level ridging still in control of the sensible weather for the forecast area. For the end of the week into the weekend, still expect the upper level ridge to hold across the Southern Plains into the Gulf South.
335 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure over the region will begin moving southeast this evening taking a frontal system along with it.
Axis of low-mid level high pressure ridge is forecast to extend across the area into the weekend with slight weakening occurring SUN-MON. Remnant moisture from old frontal boundary will continue to push across the southern half of the peninsula through late week with the highest PoPs indicated on Fri then a little lower Sat.
659 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool moonlit nights will be the rule.
Although the flattened ridging at all levels will control the local weather pattern through the Friday morning hours. a inverted trough over southern Texas/Northern MX (weakness in ridge) may introduce more late period cloud cover.
High pressure will provide dry weather for the weekend. Short wave trough moving over the lower Great Lakes is kicking off numerous SHRA/TSRA in the slightly unstable air over NW PA. A weak trough aloft and front in the vicinty (probably to our south in the afternoon) will have to work on some slightly drier air.
359 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool moonlit nights will be the rule.
412 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region Friday through the weekend.
High pressure moving slowly across the region tonight into Friday will bring quiet weather to the area. After cool lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, highs Friday should rise into the lower 80s well inland. Cooler temperatures near the lake are expected with onshore winds.
Upper ridge axis will be further east with a light southwesterly flow aloft by the afternoon.
1137 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level analysis has broad ridge building across the Rockies and Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure was located across the Northern Plains with weak low pressure over southeast Wyoming. Today, warmer air can be expected today as southeast winds also bring in increasing low level moisture. Thermal ridge crosses the area with high temperatures climbing into the 90s, with some locations likely exceeding 100 degrees. A strong cold front will move through the area Friday night, with low temperatures ranging from the 40s in Northeast Wyoming - to the mid 60s across south central South Dakota.
An upper level low pressure system will move overhead tonight. This weather system will bring keep rain showers and cooler temperatures in the region through mid day Friday before conditions start to dry out and warm up for the weekend.
404 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Aside from scattered showers that will impact the western Southern Tier early this evening, conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will dominate the region.
The SREF and most of the rapid refresh models develop fog between Pine Ridge. Weak high pressure is in place and skies are forecast to clear for several hours tonight. We continue to be in an active pattern with several short waves and long wave troughs spinning into closed low pressure systems traverse the CONUS. Tomorrow a long wave trough moves across the Rockies and undergoes cyclogenesis in the southern Plains.
/Issued 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/ A frontal boundary will move south into the area later tonight before stalling early Tuesday, and then moving back north as a warm front during the day Tuesday. There will be a wide range of temperatures Tuesday afternoon, with 80s south of the warm front, and temperatures struggling to reach 60 in the northwest corner of our forecast area.
However the higher chances of precipitation will not move further north until mid morning to early afternoon when the upper system and the flow around the low will bring in that better chance.
Short term models indicate some clearing in its wake as a weak ridge builds into the region from the west. Model soundings suggests the potential for some fog development as winds diminish in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
SSE winds will then develop across the entire area overnight as low pressure develops in the panhandle. Moisture will hold over the coastal plains on Tuesday while a trough axis/dryline moves east to near Highway 281. Very warm temperatures will occur again over the Brush Country while readings will be slightly cooler along the coast. Next short wave trough over southern Nevada this afternoon will move east and become an upper low over the Texas panhandle Tuesday afternoon.
1039 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A low pressure system will bring precipitation chances to the area through Tuesday.
Given temperatures will be above freezing for the better part of the night, impacts from snow should be minimal with just some minor accumulations of slush expected for the most part. The exception continues to be the higher terrain of the Little Rockies where more significant accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, which will cause travel concerns along highways 66 and 191. Tuesday the low pressure system will exit to the east, did increase pops as lingering moisture should allow for ample shower activity to continue, with a general tapering from west to east as the day wears on.
The dry slot over southern WI will erode this afternoon as more showers push into the region with low pressure lifting north toward the region. The low will move across central IL and into MI tonight bringing another round of rain showers late this afternoon through tonight.
/issued 341 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/ A potent upper level low pressure trough over the eastern Great Basin will rotate over the southern Rockies and across the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. System will remain progressive while closing off over the high plains. A complication remains an energetic cold front dropping southward Tuesday afternoon that may become enhanced by convective activity. Wind guidance again has come up, into the high wind advisory levels or even just into high wind warning levels mainly across the western South Plains.
Cold front does remain well south of the CWA. Current pop trend looks good at this time based on regional radar coverage which shows bulk of precip along frontal boundary extending west towards the upper low that will affect the CWA Tues/Wed. However the higher chances of precipitation will not move further north until mid morning to early afternoon when the upper system and the flow around the low will bring in that better chance.
MVFR conditions likely with the showers/thunderstorms with more widespread MVFR/IFR cigs developing in the wake of the cold front passage Tuesday night.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Latest water vapor imagery showed the axis of the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper trough axis will exit east as a zonal flow pattern takes over. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
/EC/ Tonight and Tuesday: Latest water vapor imagery showed the axis of the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper trough axis will exit east as a zonal flow pattern takes over. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Winds should decrease again in the evening ahead of a cold front on track for late Tuesday night.
911 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Low pressure area over IL and cold front moving across middle Tennessee will enhance another wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms late this evening into early Tuesday.
Will likely see more cloud cover so maximum temperatures likely to be a few degrees cooler but still above average.
/issued 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/ Midafternoon GOES visible imagery showed an upper low centered near St. Banded showers and thunderstorms were moving through the Midsouth ahead of a weak midlevel trof extending south of the upper low. Thereafter, low level instability will wane and the upper low will lift into the upper Midwest. Low amplitude upper level ridging will lead to fair weather and mild temps on Tuesday. The next in series of upper level lows will lift from the southern plains into the mid-MS River valley Tuesday night.
This activity is winding down as the trough axis moves by, so expect the Winter Weather Advisory for this area to expire routinely at 6pm. Any water remaining on roads after sunset is subject to freezing,creating black ice conditions in some areas. Mostly sunny skies return on Tuesday with high amplitude ridging over the PacNW.
The synoptic scale pattern has the large long wave trough moving through the MS Valley with a smaller NE wave/PV anomaly following close behind.
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A low pressure system will bring precipitation chances to the area through Tuesday.
Upper level low pressure is sliding east deeper into the Midwest region, while another is set up over the northern Rockies. temps range from the lower 50s in the NNW to mid 50s in the south and east. The better chances look to remain across the NNE half of the CWA, though some of the short term hi-res models continue to show the chance for isolated coverage further south, so will keep the low PoPs in there. Expecting highs to be a touch cooler than today, esp across the south with highs near 50, further north mid 50s are forecast.
1028 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Currently - Fresh southeasterly breezes are being driven by a ridge centered well northeast of the Bahamas with a broad ridge extending across Florida and Cuba. Rain chances will be slim as the lower level inhibition is not expected to really go anywhere along with the gradually relaxing flow. Fresh southeasterly breezes continue across Florida Keys waters due to a broad Atlantic ridge extending west southwestward across Cuba and Florida.
With the low level moisture, there could be a possibility of patchy fog forming after midnight. But, based on past experience, fog is a possibility of the moisture in the lower levels at this time. Quiet through much of the extended with high pressure under control. Initially, there is a split flow pattern with a trough in far northern Ontario and a cutoff across the Central Plains.
Dry and warm weather expected tomorrow with south winds starting to increase ahead of an approaching upper trof currently nearing the Four Corners on water vapor satellite imagery. As this feature enters the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday evening, a warm front is progged to lift north through the area, bringing a sharp return of at least shallow Gulf moisture. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during this time frame, with the highest chances over South Central LA, where a marginal risk of severe TSTMS also exists E and SE of New Iberia. A drier and cooler continental airmass will prevail in the wake of this front with high pressure at the SFC and deep NW flow aloft persisting THU and FRI.
/issued 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/ Dry slot has finally moved in across the area with skies clearing areawide as upper low open wave tracks across central MS valley.
Tonight, convective activity will dissipate, though mid/high clouds will persist as a broad/weak upper trough remains overhead. NAM BUFKIT profiles show instability with the cooler temperatures aloft, resulting in shallow convective showers across the Missouri valley and points west. Cooler mid level temperatures and cloud cover will also result in another day with 'cooler' high temperatures that are still around 5 degrees warmer than average.
Drier conditions and a warming trend will begin mid week as an upper ridge builds over the region.
Meanwhile dry conditions should persist as a ridge of high pressure remains over the area tonight.
A broken line of showers and storms is expected to push through central KY and southern IN late this afternoon and evening just ahead of the surface cold front. Areas that have remained dry/warmer today may be able to realize more CAPE this evening. Highs will range from the mid 60s in southern Indiana to the lower 70s in south-central Kentucky.
448 PM PDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. High pressure will then build with a warming trend through midweek. A chance of rain and cooler temperatures are expected late in the week. The ridge building in tonight and the offshore trends should lower the depth some and limit the inland push but still solid south of Pt Conception. With the offshore trends Tuesday look for warmer temps everywhere but especially inland as we should see at least a few 80s in the warmer valleys. Then warmer still Wed which will be the warmest day of the period with valley highs in the mid to even high 80s and coastal areas in the 70s.
1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Dry and a little warmer with some sun Tuesday, then a couple blustery and chilly days before much warmer conditions return for the weekend. The new pattern will be characterized by a trough over the eastern Pacific and downstream ridging over the central CONUS.
At the surface, an area of low pressure was noted over the middle MS river valley with a broad area of high pressure over the northern plains. Lows tonight should be in the lower and middle 40s aided by some partly cloudy skies. For Tuesday, the next upper low if progged to become better organized with PVA and upper level difluence increasing through the afternoon. Highs Tuesday should be cooler with clouds and precip likely through the afternoon. Parts of Anderson CO could sneak into the lower 60s.
805 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A strong upper level system and associated cold front will move northeast and east of our region tonight. Weak high pressure crosses our area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
615 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 We continue to be in an active pattern with several short waves and long wave troughs spinning into closed low pressure systems traverse the CONUS. Tomorrow a long wave trough moves across the Rockies and undergoes cyclogenesis in the southern Plains.
Most of the area Tuesday will see steady temperatures, as the low clouds and rain negate any insolation through the entire day.
A tightened pressure gradient looks to relax through the overnight hours as the ridge axis approaches eastern Oregon.
Showers continue over western North Dakota along a surface boundary and ahead of a mid level S/WV trough. a trough swinging to the south of the Montana low will close off and push into the central plains while the Montana system opens up and slides into our area.
625 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing much of note through midweek, save for perhaps some ridge top dense fog at times tonight. With low stratus in place, could continue to see some bouts of thicker fog along the ridge tops (areas enshrouded in cloud cover), but the overall trend of earlier visibility restrictions across the western CWA appears over with ongoing rain and some stronger boundary layer flow overnight courtesy of a better gradient than last night.
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing much of note through midweek, save for perhaps some ridge top dense fog at times tonight. With low stratus in place, could continue to see some bouts of thicker fog along the ridge tops (areas enshrouded in cloud cover), but the overall trend of earlier visibility restrictions across the western CWA appears over with ongoing rain and some stronger boundary layer flow overnight courtesy of a better gradient than last night.
An upper low along the Utah Arizona border will continue to track off to the southeast overnight. A weak but cold disturbance will brush northern Utah late tonight and Tuesday, followed by the return of high pressure midweek.
A quick moving cold front with strong winds, showers and a few lingering thunderstorms will exit northern Arizona by Tuesday morning. Fair and warmer weather returns for the end of the work week. The cold front that brought strong winds, showers, and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening is currently over eastern Arizona. A vigorous upper trough and cold front are approaching the region this afternoon. At 3 PM, the surface cold front stretched from northern Mohave county into south-central Utah. The front has been slow moving most of the day, but is expected to accelerate southeastward as the upper trough approaches.
624 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 We continue to be in an active pattern with several short waves and long wave troughs spinning into closed low pressure systems traverse the CONUS. Tomorrow a long wave trough moves across the Rockies and undergoes cyclogenesis in the southern Plains.