Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH THE HIGHEST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG FOCUSED ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO ROBINSON LINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. FEATURES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED POPS WITH FROPA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO THE LOWER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED, AND SPC HAS REMOVED MOST OF FORECAST AREA FROM DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THERE BEING LESS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH.
THIS EVENING THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE VEERING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ UPPER HIGH TO BUILD WEST TODAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES MAINLY LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LEE- SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
210 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A few showers are possible this afternoon (mostly over the higher terrain) as some moisture and weak instability lingers in the wake of a departing weather disturbance.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MAIN LL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. A LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE FA TODAY WITH INCREASING LSA. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SERN TX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN VALUES NOTED YESTERDAY. AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR TX DURING THE DAY.
A 60KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS SEPARATING A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO EASTERN MONTANA AND MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS LIFTING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A RATHER UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH WYOMING TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AROUND LAKE YELLOWSTONE AND JACKSON LAKE BY EARLY MORNING.
MORE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE NUDGES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND KEEPS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST NEAR THE NM MOUNTAINS AND NUDGES OUR DAYTIME HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SW WILL TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST NW OF THE OHIO RIVER. BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A HIGHER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MAKES IT TO THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY EVENING.
ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS REMOVED THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 50S REPORTED OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CDD TO AIT TO LJF. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GET MUCH QUIETER WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND WESTERLIES BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL BACK TO OUR WEST AND EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN WI TO NEAR DES MOINES AND THEN INTO KS. WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING I WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME OTHER WEAKER CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL ALL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AVIATION TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER MID 90S INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IT WILL EASILY BE VERY HUMID. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. IT WOULD SEE WE DO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GIVEN THE COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH.
/ISSUED 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN FROM SW TO S TODAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO SOUTH FL.
AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW SHRA FORMING AND QUICKLY COLLAPSING IN THE NORTHEAST RIDGES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AS MOISTURE GETS SWEPT INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
WITH WARMER BUT CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. UPPER LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10F DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH WAA AND A WESTERLY MIXING WIND.
343 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SAID DRY AIR IN PLACE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS LIKELY TO GET CONVECTION FIRING YUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THIS UNDERCUTTING COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A CAP. THE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKE THE LOCATION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT HARDER TO DEFINE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. EITHER WAY HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT COOLER. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
231 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLORES.
312 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
1209 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY SLICING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55-65 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAINLY ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EHI VALUES ARE HOVERING AROUND 1 IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER.
FEW STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SUBDUED LIKELY DUE TO NOSE OF WESTERN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA. EVEN A HEALTHY BNDRY COLLISION OVER LAKE CTY EARLY THIS EVENING WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXIS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REACH INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME ACTIVITY SKIRTED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. ANOTHER DAY OF JUNE HEAT FELT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TOPPING OUT AT 112F.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR INDICATES A RATHER STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
740 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE STEERS IT.
1128 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 94 73 95 / 20 20 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 91 72 93 / 20 20 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 91 72 93 / 20 20 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 88 68 90 / 30 20 20 40.
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING TREND TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, INTERIOR SLO, AND THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE LA/VENTURA COASTAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER, 7 MB ONSHORE GRADIENTS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A SHALLOW, BUT SOLID MARINE LYR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER AIR NEAR THE BEACHES.
The models show the boundary lifting northward tonight but I'm not all convinced of that solution given the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley.
A COLD FRONT IS PASSED THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO VERY WARM LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AT THE COAST TO THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND.
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE EVEN THOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY SLIPPING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD TO KEEP CONVECTION UNDER CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING BEFORE WE REACH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT. LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
904 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS THAN AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HOTTER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
849 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.
801 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL INDIANA. THE DRY FORECAST WILL COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING TRIES TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF PERTURBED/NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
CONCERN REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS EITHER IN THE LOW MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES PSBL BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 12Z CYCLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SLOWLY WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 306 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CONVECTION CONTRACTS AROUND BILL AND AN EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTH MS. /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING BEFORE WE REACH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT. LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONVECTION AWAY FROM MOST OF MY CWA. MORE LIKE MID JULY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY'S HIGHS AND NEAR 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEY AROUND 102.
907 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KCYS WITH A COLD FRONT NEWD THROUGH WESTERN SD. TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING AND MOV EWD OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS FURTHER ON SAT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 90S. WE WILL KEEP TMPS FOR NOW INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE EC WOULD INDICATE COOLER. THE RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 14-16 C AT 700 MB.
1237 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT EXITED NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE NORTH THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH GENERALLY EAST FLOW OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS DRIER AT MID LEVELS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL TO THE WEST AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS CLEARLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
1042 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.
AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM. HAVE RAISED QPF OVER THESE AREA AND 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS HIGHER RISK AREA AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9-11 INCHES SEEMS REACHABLE.
1004 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
GAGE REPORTS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY SHOW SOME 5-6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KCYS WITH A COLD FRONT NEWD THROUGH WESTERN SD. TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING AND MOV EWD OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS FURTHER ON SAT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 90S. WE WILL KEEP TMPS FOR NOW INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE EC WOULD INDICATE COOLER. THE RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 14-16 C AT 700 MB. COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
954 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
636 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SO AGAIN TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
625 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE E AND A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE W. A CUT-OFF LOW WAS UNDERNEATH OVER SRN CA WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE USA. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SEASONABLE LATE APRIL WEATHER IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC AND SOME CLOUD INCREASE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND APPROACH THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARDS MORNING.
624 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER, WHILE A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES: HOWEVER, WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THINK A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OF AROUND 5MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION DESPITE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING A SUNNY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY 12Z FRI. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
932 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
1031 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST TN AND WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. JMS /ISSUED 718 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS EQUATES TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS. A PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COMES ASHORE TODAY FORCING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKLY PHASES WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND ALSO MOVES INLAND. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW WILL OPEN UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA AND WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED PRECIP BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DYING DOWN DUE TO LACK OF HEATING AND ANY REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE SWD. ANY ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH PATTERN AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON AND INTO TUE. 09 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION AND IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 742 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/ A LINGERING BOUNDARY, THAT WAS A COLD FRONT, WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY, AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET IS UNUSUAL, ROUGHLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND IS DRIVEN NOT ONLY BY THE BLOCKY H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, BUT ALSO BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH HAS DELIVERED MANY OPPRESSIVELY WARM DAYS RECENTLY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. BUT COMBO OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE THU NIGHT OVER ALL THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED.
935 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015 SMALL SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE AND WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWS SOME WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE WEST. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE EVENING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE ACTUALLY PUSHING SOME SHOWERS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM 00-03Z. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TODAY AS A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MONSOON TYPE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHEDDING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 48 67 42 / 30 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 42 65 38 / 40 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 42 66 38 / 40 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 39 62 33 / 40 10 0 0.