Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, a couple more vorticity maximums will move across central and srn WI for Wed AM and again later in the day as the upper low moves across nrn Lake MI toward the Lower Great Lakes.
However, with the upper low still very slowly meandering eastward (i. The highest chances of this look to be north of I-94, closer to the low track across northern Wisconsin.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 80s with dew points still comfortably in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Aloft an upper level ridge is situated over the eastern third of the U. and is essentially trapped between two upper level troughs. The eastern trough is parked over the western north Atlantic, while the western trough is over MN.
Given the increase in cloud cover/rainfall, afternoon temps Wed look to trend more in the lower 70s east to the upper 60s west. Lingering showers will then begin to taper off from the west Wed evening, as slightly cooler air filters into the area from the north. Lows early Thu look to fall more into the upper 40s for most locations, as high pressure out of the Plains states builds into much of the region. Lows Fri morning look to fall into the lower 40s/near 40F, before temps again rebound into the mid 60s that afternoon. Quiet/seasonably cool wx conditions will then prevail into the new week, as high pressure out of the Plains states once again gradually builds into much of the region.
The upper flow across North America will transition from its current blocky configuration into a more consolidated regime with ridging near the West Coast and a trough over the central part of the continent. Tonight and Wednesday A closed upper cyclone will slowly shift east across northern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday. Small scale disturbances (nicely visible on water vapor satellite imagery) rotating around the upper low will result in areas of enhanced showers.
and the fact that the higher precip totals from today/this morning are also further to the south.
Questions remain about the full extent as the radar beam is likely overshooting a lot of the sprinkles/flurries, but with the upper level low continuously sending lobes of vorticity overhead sprinkles/flurries will likely remain possible. The activity over southern ND is what needs to be watched, as this is what would drift into our area as the upper level low begins to move southwards. Into the overnight period, the next upper level low begins to move towards the region, causing some low level moisture to be advected into the region by the exiting upper level low.
A highly sheared trough is swirling over the western Great Lakes this afternoon. To our south lies a cold front along the Gulf Coast states. Dry again on Wednesday with high temperatures near or a few degrees cooler than today.
205 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Upper low centered over OR this afternoon moving down into the Great Basin by this evening will wobble around that area Wednesday.
Another mostly sunny day is expected tomorrow but cooler as temperatures range from the 50s across most of the area to the lower 60s in the southeast. Mostly clear skies and winds becoming lighter, should allow temps to drop into the lower to middle 30s in the north with upper 30s in the central and lower 40s in the southeast. These cooler temps, especially in the northwest, combined with dewpoints below freezing, will create favorable conditions for frost development. Temps dropping into the low to mid 30s should be more widespread, likely along and north of I-70.
329 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Upper air and satellite data show zonal flow in place across the area today, set up between areas of low pressure spinning over MN and digging into the Great Basin region. At the surface, high pressure has been gradually building in from the northwest, bringing an overall downward trend in the WNW winds. No big surprises with temperatures, reaching into the lower-mid 50s at 3 PM. There hasn't been any notable change in the models, which still show weak upper level ridging over the central CONUS in between the two main upper lows, which are located over the Great Lakes region and NV/UT area by Wednesday night. As far as temperatures go, Wednesday highs look to be similar/perhaps just a touch cooler in spots, with lower-mid 50s forecast.
342 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Quiet weather will continue through Wednesday as region remains trapped between two upper level lows.
High pressure will remain over the area tonight with mainly clear skies. Reading will be a few degrees warmer than last night generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high will then shift east on Wednesday allowing a southerly flow to develop. Highs Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today due to increasing clouds.
A zonal upper flow continues across the region today with surface ridging continuing to move east of the area. Another complex of of showers and storms will develop to our west tonight ahead of an approaching cold front and overspread the region from the west through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70s northwest of I-65 to upper 70s and low 80s east of the interstate.
This resultant flow has resulted in a low stratus deck along the Rio Grande with persistent light shower activity and much cooler temperatures. Temperatures across this region will struggle to climb out of the low to mid 60s. Near seasonal temperatures are in place elsewhere in the 70s and the lower to mid 80s. This warmer southerly flow will aid in better isentropic lift. Isolated to scattered rain shower chances with embedded elevated thunderstorms continue through Wednesday night with the continued setup for the isentropic lift pattern with the warmer 850 mb flow above the cooler surface flow.
1107 AM MDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern MN, with high pressure over southwest Canada. An upper level low settles south across the western US by Wednesday and then slowly moves east-southeast across the Rockies into the Central Plains late week and gradually weakens with time.
On Wednesday, there may still be a little lingering light snow in the northwest, with little or no additional accumulation, but dry elsewhere with high pressure at the surface and aloft.
The sheared out upper low will remain sprawled out from the Central Plains across the Great Lakes during the short term period, moving only slightly eastward through Wednesday. These bursts of heavier frozen precip would have the highest potential to accumulate on grassy surfaces, but would still amount to 1" or less. Wednesday will be notably drier and 5-10 degrees warmer as the low shifts farther east, but there could still be isolated rain showers popping up with cyclonic flow in place. Two slow-moving upper level lows over the CONUS will continue to influence the upper Midwest's weather throughout the forecast period. The upper low that is currently over northern Minnesota will move into the Great Lakes, allowing a reprieve from the rain and snow showers.
A large upper low will develop over the area today and will be centered over northern Nevada tonight.
Models are struggling to include any CAPE in their solutions given the extent of dry air above the lower levels with any CAPE being most likely located across our far eastern zones, and even then it will likely be below 100 J/kg. Stratus/rain should begin to clear from west to east tomorrow afternoon into the early evening as weak upper ridging moves across the region.
118 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Dry weather is expected today under weak high pressure.
Deformation zone precipitation continues to wrap into the region as the upper low gradually pulls east over Lake Superior today. Made some minor adjustments to POPs as the upper low continues to spin over our area and snow continues. Cut off upper low continues to rotate over the DLH area, and is not expected to move much today. Could see an additional 2 to 3 inches, mainly near the Canadian border, although of course totals will be impacted by melting and warmer temperatures this afternoon. Looking at the larger scale pattern, nearly zonal flow prevails across the southern CONUS, with ridging over the Pacific Northwest, and a developing trough to the east.
Warmer temperatures and dry weather into the weekend. Cut-off upper low is currently pushing south over NE Nevada. Radar is showing precip picking up over the higher terrain of the Sierra and ensembles indicate amounts from 0.
Current forecast has patchy fog east of the I-75 corridor, which is certainly possible if the high clouds remain thin.
Lower level ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida is associated with quite a bit of dry air. Short Term Update - Surface through lower level ridging will persist through the overnight period. Temperatures will fall only a few degrees more into the lower to mid 70s. High pressure over Florida will result in gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
As of 20z, the closed upper low continues to spin over the Upper Midwest with a trough diving south across the western CONUS. Temperatures fall to near freezing near the KS/NE border with mid and upper 30s expected further south. A more northerly component to the wind behind the front will lead to slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday; highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.
High pressure will remain dominant while shifting offshore. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 60s, with highs remaining warmer than normal Wednesday, in the low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.
The the lower levels, east to southeasterly boundary layer winds are expected tonight and Wednesday. On Tuesday it is relegated mainly to the lower levels. The cooler temperatures; cooler temperatures than normals, are expected to continue for Wexnesday's readings. On the plains, highs will generally be in the low 40s to low 50s F and lows will be in the low 20s to mid 30s F. The high country should generally be only about 10 degrees cooler. This will mean persistent snow for the higher elevations and rain or mixed precipitation turning to snow through the evening for most of the lower elevations, often to include the mountain valleys and parks.
Light showers are expected to develop late tonight as the first of the two troughs out to our northwest drops southeast into the Commonwealth. Ramped PoPs up for Wednesday as the surface wave of low pressure tracking through Tennessee and Southern Appalachia interacts with the surface boundary dropping southeast across eastern Kentucky. This second feature, or wave of low pressure will provide the best opportunity for rain to the area. Temperatures will run just below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs Tuesday in the lower 60s and overnight lows dipping to around 50 tonight and to around 40 tomorrow night.
This activity is occurring in a WAA regime above a weak cold front stalled across our southeast counties. Although current temperatures across the area are in the mid to upper 60s, CAA behind the front will drop temperatures down into the low to mid 50s overnight. Highs tomorrow will be several degrees cooler over our northwest versus our southeast due to the stalled frontal boundary.
/issued 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Nearly-zonal mid level flow will continue over the area while a cold front drifts very slowly southward across southern Texas.
As an upper level low continues to develop over the Great Basin, increases in Northerlies winds with low RH values are a concern.
/issued 205 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/ Upper low centered over OR this afternoon moving down into the Great Basin by this evening will wobble around that area Wednesday.
403 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 The primary foci in the short term is precipitation for Wednesday morning, and again into the overnight as another upper level closed low, currently residing over Oregon, treks through the area. As the low propagates southeastward, it advects Pacific moisture at mid and upper levels into the area, providing sufficient moisture throughout the column. The initial ptype at this time is likely to be SN, as temps hover near freezing. So, as temps rise above freezing by the afternoon, precip will transition to rain before dissipating for a brief period in the afternoon to the late evening.
945 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will persist through tonight. Associated cold front drops into north Georgia during the day tomorrow and slowly sinks south and east into central Georgia Wednesday night.
The primary foci in the short term is precipitation for Wednesday morning, and again into the overnight as another upper level closed low, currently residing over Oregon, treks through the area. As the low propagates southeastward, it advects Pacific moisture at mid and upper levels into the area, providing sufficient moisture throughout the column. The initial ptype at this time is likely to be SN, as temps hover near freezing. So, as temps rise above freezing by the afternoon, precip will transition to rain before dissipating for a brief period in the afternoon to the late evening.
/Issued 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/ Cold front has pushed south into the ARKLATX region this afternoon.
523 PM MDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Broad upper level troughing will dominate most of the period, supporting below normal temps with unsettled and breezy conds at times. Double barrel upper low over the northern CONUS is supporting cool, breezy and mostly cloudy conds over much of the region today. Eastern closed low will pull away Wed, with the western CONUS trough slowly beginning to progress east. This will allow for much less wind Wed, with slightly warmer temps. Western CONUS trough will shift east Wed as a northern stream upper trough phases across the northern plains, allowing for an overall slow progression of low heights over the region.
It will also bring a chance of light showers to the high Sierra late tonight through Wednesday.
909 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Updated forecast was minor this evening, pertaining to the returning warm front across our region and its effects on pops for the remainder of the night. Chasing a leftward moving supercell along a retreating warm front this evening across portions of NE TX with several reports of severe hail along its path before it finally dissipated across Eastern Harrison County and Southwest Caddo Parish. Latest HRRR and 00z NAM output suggests that our western third will continue to see the possibility of renewed convection in association with this instability axis and the northwestward moving warm front before broad scale lift increases dramatically late tonight and therefore storm coverage does as well areawide.
High pressure is over British Columbia with low pressure over California and Nevada. An upper ridge will build over British Columbia through the end of the week.
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 The primary foci in the short term is precipitation for Wednesday morning, and again into the overnight as another upper level closed low, currently residing over Oregon, treks through the area. As the low propagates southeastward, it advects Pacific moisture at mid and upper levels into the area, providing sufficient moisture throughout the column. The initial ptype at this time is likely to be SN, as temps hover near freezing. So, as temps rise above freezing by the afternoon, precip will transition to rain before dissipating for a brief period in the afternoon to the late evening.
We initially covered the damaging wind threat with 2 SVRs given there were still some convective elements noted in conjunction with the higher velocities, but as rain dissipated and the wake low persisted, we transitioned to a High Wind Warning effective for affected southern portions of the area until 9 PM.
Temps overnight look to fall into the lower 50s with the rainfall and then should slowly fall through tonight into the mid 40s to near 50 deg across Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. slightly higher dewpoints combined with the cloud cover should hold temps in the low to mid 50s from north to south.
Another great day was unfolding across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri, with the area under influence from high pressure ridging extending from the central Great Plains into the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain in control of our weather for through Wednesday, meaning quiet weather with mainly dry condtions are expected. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s here.
913 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 (Issued 912 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021) Water vapor showing nice spiraling circulation associated with cut off low pressure over central Minnesota. A piece of mid-level short wave energy rotating around this upper low will sweep into central WI and clip southern WI late tonight and Wednesday morning. However, a couple more vorticity maximums will move across central and srn WI for Wed AM and again later in the day as the upper low moves across nrn Lake MI toward the Lower Great Lakes.
422 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Tonight and Wednesday, upper level ridging and zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days.
908 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
749 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 A low level ridge of high pressure remains in place to our east and the east coast seabreeze has pushed across nearly our entire area of responsibility.
Another mostly sunny day is expected tomorrow but cooler as temperatures range from the 50s across most of the area to the lower 60s in the southeast. Latest guidance shows mean low temps of 34F NW of the IL River Valley and some areas near Galesburg could drop to or below freezing overnight. Mostly clear skies and winds becoming lighter, should allow temps to drop into the lower to middle 30s in the north with upper 30s in the central and lower 40s in the southeast. These cooler temps, especially in the northwest, combined with dewpoints below freezing, will create favorable conditions for frost development. Temps dropping into the low to mid 30s should be more widespread, likely along and north of I-70.
552 PM MDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Impressive low pressure cell observed on the current satellite imagery spinning out over Wisconsin, with our low pressure system setting up on the Idaho/Wyoming/Utah border. The second part to this event will occur on Wednesday evening as the low pressure cell remains stationary just to our west.
342 PM MDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Impressive low pressure cell observed on the current satellite imagery spinning out over Wisconsin, with our low pressure system setting up on the Idaho/Wyoming/Utah border. The second part to this event will occur on Wednesday evening as the low pressure cell remains stationary just to our west.
TWH Satellite imagery shows an upper low over MN, and another to our west over OR, leaving us within the quiet col region. Wednesday should be a mostly dry day as mid levels become warmer and shallow instability becomes even more shallow. Snow chances will increase Wednesday night as upper low moves to northern UT and a vort max lifts thru WY.
333 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Another weak disturbance aloft will phase just enough with the closed low over the Great Lakes to generate light precip across the Ohio Valley today.
Did a forecast update a little earlier this evening to expand the higher POPs a little bit farther north given the current trends in both the radar and the latest model information.
At the surface, a cool relatively dry airmass remains over the area with a warm front extending from east TX to the MS coast and a cold front moving into far northwest MS. As the mid level system approaches, increasing low level flow out of the Gulf northward overtop the warm front will lead to elevated convective development over LA at sunrise, building east into the area through the morning. In these areas, mainly a hail threat will exist, although a damaging wind threat will also exist to the west and south near the approaching warm front. The mid level wave will pass to the east during the afternoon as the cold front continues moving south.
158 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 157 AM CDT Incoming cooler air is the main near term weather story. The persistent (and pesky) broad upper low centered across the Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lake continues to move very little early this morning. Mid-level height and temperature anomalies under/near the center of this are in the bottom 5th-10th percentile for this time of year, and looking at the MPX 850 mb temperature of -9C last evening, that was even the lowest 5th percentile. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds upstream will accompany the cooler air, spilling southeastward over the CWA through today. Despite northwest winds around 10 mph, quicker clearing would provide colder temperatures, including outlying locations dipping down to freezing.
354 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A rather brief rain event will mainly affect areas of se MO /wrn KY this morning as another weak H50 short wave zips eastward through the lower/mid MS River Valley, beneath a closed upper low drifting east through the Great Lakes region.
At the surface an area of high pressure in Nebraska will continue to keep the winds out of a general east to northeast direction. With cloudy skies and increasing moisture through the night kept the overnight lows warmer as we fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday though, with highs in the 50s and 60s across the Permian Basin and Lea county, 70s west of the Pecos River, and 80s to lower 90s through the Rio Grande Valley.
North-northwest winds will increase with cold air advection as this low finally starts to exit our area late tonight.
That said, slow moving cold front will continue to approach and push into the area, triggering scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the TAF period.
938 PM PDT Tue Apr 13 2021 A low pressure system will move into the Great Basin, strengthening the onshore flow across southern California, as well as deepening the marine layer through Wednesday with periods of stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. There will be patchy drizzle, and even light rain along the lower coastal mountain slopes and foothills through Wednesday morning. These type of showers are always more likely overnight as saturation in the lower layers is more easily reached. An upper low will meander over Nevada through Wednesday evening before departing to the east.
Skies are starting to clear across the Medford CWA this evening in the wake of a short wave rotating around an upper low. The low will move out to the south and east tonight and the flow aloft will turn northerly as a high amplitude long wave ridge moves toward the west coast.
This activity is occurring in a WAA regime above a weak cold front stalled across our southeast counties. Although current temperatures across the area are in the mid to upper 60s, CAA behind the front will drop temperatures down into the low to mid 50s overnight. Highs tomorrow will be several degrees cooler over our northwest versus our southeast due to the stalled frontal boundary. Ceiling should lower to IFR thresholds for at least a couple of hours per post frontal cold frontal sfc passage.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark where snow remains on the ground, with highs in the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Looking into tonight, lows will fall into the lower to middle 20s across the Devils Lake Basin and into the northern Red River Valley, with upper 20s to the south and east.
Folks in these counties will be waking up to temperatures near freezing and clear skies. Winds are light and skies are mostly clear north of I-72, an optimal combination for frost development in areas where temperatures will drop near freezing by daybreak. Stark, Knox, Peoria, and Fulton counties are likely to see lows in the low to mid 30s and therefore a Frost Advisory is in effect for them until 8 AM CDT. As the day progresses, high pressure will assist in the southward shift of this system and make way for mostly clear skies.