Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, should remain mostly dry today as high pressure builds in from the western Atlantic. However, a weak inverted trough is expected to develop just offshore of the east coast of the peninsula by this evening and will produce a few showers over the waters. Highs this afternoon reaching the lower 70s across much of the area, though far northern portions of the CWA could remain in the upper 60s. Finally a bit warmer overnight as well, with morning lows remaining in the 50s. But, could still see a few locations fall into the upper 40s well north and west of I-4, while coastal areas stay in the low 60s thanks to onshore flow. A few showers over the waters late morning through tonight, as a weak inverted trough develops just offshore of the east coast of the peninsula.
The latest observations and visible satellite imagery is showing sunny skies and reporting temperatures already 4 to 6 degrees warmer than 24 hours and are expected to top out in the upper 60's to mid 70's this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Current temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and most valley areas are at or near saturation. Besides a few lingering snow showers over the high Sierra early this morning, interior NorCal will see a break from precipitation today allowing creeks and streams a chance to recede.
230 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 A large mid/upper trough has dug into the western CONUS with mid/upper ridging over the eastern CONUS. Given that temperatures should remain just above freezing across central Kansas on Thursday, any precip that does sneak into the area should be just rain; however, chances remain below 20% at this time.
Below freezing temps expected again tonight in NE Tennessee and SW Virgina. Discussion: Weak ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast tonight and tomorrow. Morning lows will be below freezing in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia with clear skies and near calm winds. The southern TN Valley and Cumberland Plateau counties will stay above freezing tonight with some clouds and light southerly winds.
256 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Southwest flow persists over the Northern Plains while a closed low meanders east over the southern Canadian Prairies. At the surface a low and cold front was analyzed over far southern Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, which should move into northwest North Dakota this evening.
Afternoon high temperatures will still push into the low to mid 60s, well above average for this time of year.
It is here where the boundary lies separating the warm, sticky air to the southeast and the relatively cooler, drier air to the northwest. As such, our forecast remains on the lower end of temperature guidance for today, with advertised highs in the lower to mid 70s. However, breezes will freshen again this evening and tonight, as high pressure builds off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. The ridge axis will settle southward this weekend, resulting in slackening east to southeast breezes.
High pressure has set up to the east of the Appalachians this morning with current satellite imagery showing clear skies across the forecast area. (Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Thursday.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: - - Active synoptic pattern remains in place through the forecast period, anchored by a broad trough over the western conus. Drizzle formation is less certain due to shallow moisture depth, but lift/shear within the lowest 1km may provide a favorable environment for drizzle at times. Ptypes are questionable due to lack of saturation in the ice bearing layer away, especially outside the primary fgen zone, and sfc wet bulb temps near to just above freezing.
A broad trough is currently producing some light radar returns across north-central Montana. As this wave continues to move through, there will be some snow in the high mountains and into the western foothills. Most of the higher resolution models show some light precip in the southeast, but have maintained and expanded the more broadbrush chance (20 to 40 percent) PoPs through mid-day tomorrow given the weaker forcing, the coverage will likely be a little higher than the CAMs are advertising. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees cooler tomorrow following the passage of the cold front tonight, generally in the 30s.
1104 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 Current surface analysis this morning shows low pressure over northeastern SD, with a frontal boundary backing into northwestern SD up into eastern MT. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MN/WI area, with troughing over the western CONUS. As the day goes on, trough will slide over the rockies into the central plains region. Temperatures will cool down for today and the remainder of the week, as trough moves into the region. As the upper trough slides over the region, temperatures will stay around or slightly above average through the rest of the week.
Aside from the warmer temps, the only feature of note to discuss in the near term will be the increase in cloud cover from the S/W this evening/overnight as our next weathermaker arrives from the W. Overnight lows will be warmer NW and cooler SE, heavily dependent on cloud coverage by morning.
One to 2 inches may fall in the high elevations with lesser amounts in the valleys.
With the cool influence of the Florida Bay not being fully resolved, temperatures remain below most ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance, with high temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s at most island communities.
Initially the region is under a weak trough crossing the central CONUS.
241 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Issued 241 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Southwest flow will continue over the area with the low level jet over head and warm air advection that will gradually bring in more moisture tonight into Thursday. Temperatures overnight will remain above freezing which should help prevent any freezing drizzle concerns. Thursday morning some pockets of positive vorticity advection will move through, but the better vorticity advection arrives with the trough Thursday night which will help clear precipitation out of the area.
Terrain-enhanced snow will be capable of continuing into Thursday morning over the Clearwaters, Bitterroots, Missions, and the higher terrain of Flathead County. Expect temperatures on Thursday to be slightly cooler than today as cold air is able to advect into the region behind a departing trough.
1114 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Rockies through tonight, with southwest flow aloft developing over West Texas. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s.
East and north of Mobile Bay, stronger east to southeast surface winds (around 10 knots) combined with stronger above surface winds (15-20kts at 3-500') lead to a stratus deck developing, especially with cooler nearshore and bay waters( ~55F in the bays and low 60s along the coast). An upper level ridge builds over the East coast in response. 1" range with a few light shra indicated on radar) mixes out behind a low level trough moving north over the forecast area at this time. Add in cooler waters over Mobile Bay and off the AL/MS coast, the best chance of fog developing is Mobile Bay and west. Temperatures continue to moderate upward though the Near Term, with high temperatures today in the mid 60s rising to the low 70s for Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, conditions were blustery, thanks to a low pressure system parked over the central Plains. At the upper-levels, a broad trough has set up across the western US, with much of the southern Plains out ahead of this system. Gusty south to southwest winds have brought warmer and drier air throughout west Texas today.
208 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure located offshore will remain in control through the end of the week.
Forecast has been trended warmer and this may still be too cool in spots. Fast moving strong wave over SW CO early Thursday will lift northeastward through the day with an attendant cold front passing through the local region Thursday afternoon and evening.
1126 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Today and tonight) A wealth of Pacific moisture continued to stream northeast over the region this morning in advance of an upper trough digging into the Great Basin. Normally these winds decline toward dawn as the LLJ tapers, but this is unlikely this time as lee troughing will only sharpen from southeast CO to eastern NM.
141 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will slide to the east over the couple of days. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain showers this weekend. Temps running pretty much on track for the maxes to hit 40-45F for most, and u30s in the higher elevations of the N.
(Tonight through Thursday) High pressure will strengthen today and remain over the southern Appalachians. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s today which is actually near normal for this time of year. A low pressure system developing over the southern plains will move to the east tonight and Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 40s in the west to the upper 30s in the east.
127 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 The northern plains is beneath southwest flow, as a trough covers the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure and several frontal boundaries sit over the Dakotas. The upper trough will gradually cross the central states today and Thursday, with its cold front pushing into our CWA early Thursday morning.
1036 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure has set up to the east of the Appalachians this morning with current satellite imagery showing clear skies across the forecast area. (Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Thursday.
221 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Key Messages: - Low probability of freezing rain/freezing drizzle overnight, and early Thursday morning. Surface temperatures this afternoon have managed to rise above freezing for the first time in two weeks across parts of central and southern Mn, and adjacent west central Wi.
A broad trough remains over the region for the next 24 hours, so although the best dynamics have moved out, light mountain and mountain pass snowfall will continue due to simple upslope flow and weak synoptic lift. Temperatures cool by about 10 degrees on on Thursday, as geopotential heights decrease, clear overnight skies allow the surface to radiate out more efficiently, and weak cold air advection brings a cooler air mass into the region.
Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing with continued melting. During the afternoon, a low will push a warm front north through the area.
Low level moisture will increase tomorrow, and deeper moisture aloft spreading atop the cooler more stable surface airmass is expected to result in scattered light rain showers developing across our western counties Thursday morning and continuing in that part of the midstate through Thursday night. Even with the increase in clouds and showers, warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states will direct a northeasterly flow over the next few days across the FL peninsula. Later in the week, high pressure breaks down to allow a weak cold front to push through the area over the weekend.
511 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, conditions were blustery, thanks to a low pressure system parked over the central Plains. At the upper-levels, a broad trough has set up across the western US, with much of the southern Plains out ahead of this system. Gusty south to southwest winds have brought warmer and drier air throughout west Texas today.
550 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 A large mid/upper trough has dug into the western CONUS with mid/upper ridging over the eastern CONUS. Given that temperatures should remain just above freezing across central Kansas on Thursday, any precip that does sneak into the area should be just rain; however, chances remain below 20% at this time.
704 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure and dry air will dominate through tomorrow and temperatures will continue to moderate.
425 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 The northern plains is beneath southwest flow, as a trough covers the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure and several frontal boundaries sit over the Dakotas. The upper trough will gradually cross the central states today and Thursday, with its cold front pushing into our CWA early Thursday morning.
747 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 A wet and mild weekend is expected as a warm front is making its way from the Gulf region into the Mid-South with a chance of a few light showers. These few light showers will be followed by the arrival of an upstream trough bringing scattered warm advection showers early tomorrow morning. These showers are anticipated to continue throughout the day prior to a cold frontal passage that will increase rainfall, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, as it stalls over the AR/MO region. Freezing temperatures are no longer in site as highs will remain in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
331 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 3PM UPDATE: Snow has made its way down out of Canada behind the cold front and will sweep in successive waves across the region through the overnight hours. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough the Intermountain West up into British Columbia. Northeast Montana lies in a meso- ridge under southwest flow aloft. Farther West, zonal flow followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridge is moving over the northern Pacific. Today through Tonight: Cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing light rain which will quickly transition to snow.
Active synoptic pattern remains in place through the forecast period, anchored by a broad trough over the western conus. Drizzle formation is less certain due to shallow moisture depth, but lift/shear within the lowest 1km may provide a favorable environment for drizzle at times. Ptypes are questionable due to lack of saturation in the ice bearing layer away, especially outside the primary fgen zone, and sfc wet bulb temps near to just above freezing.
912 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure located offshore will remain in control through the end of the week.
846 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Before the focus turns to precipitation chances on Thursday, there is a cold front over northwest North Dakota that is progged to work down through the CWA later tonight after 06Z, clearing the southeastern corner of the CWA at ~13Z Thursday. The low level CAA that ensues behind the fropa could result in a non-diurnal trend to temperatures (falling temps) through the day on Thursday. Initially the region is under a weak trough crossing the central CONUS.
312 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 An area of high pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will keep our weather quiet and very mild through Friday.
357 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 An area of high pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will keep our weather quiet and very mild through Friday.
(Tonight) Relatively tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region with high pressure to the east of the area promoting southerly flow. However, scattered decks of clouds will continue to stream northeast into the region overnight ahead of a developing low pressure system over the southern Plains. In fact, it will be the first time in nearly a week that lows will remain above the freezing mark -- bottoming out in the low to mid 40s in most locations.
1018 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 The northern plains is beneath southwest flow, as a trough covers the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure and several frontal boundaries sit over the Dakotas. The upper trough will gradually cross the central states today and Thursday, with its cold front pushing into our CWA early Thursday morning.
Before the focus turns to precipitation chances on Thursday, there is a cold front over northwest North Dakota that is progged to work down through the CWA later tonight after 06Z, clearing the southeastern corner of the CWA at ~13Z Thursday. The low level CAA that ensues behind the fropa could result in a non-diurnal trend to temperatures (falling temps) through the day on Thursday. Initially the region is under a weak trough crossing the central CONUS.
Widespread light to moderate snow along a warm front will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning with deteriorating conditions. Models are more consistent timing the second, wetter warm front late Thursday night and Friday morning.
1051 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 High pressure will persist through Friday.
1153 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 A large mid/upper trough has dug into the western CONUS with mid/upper ridging over the eastern CONUS. Given that temperatures should remain just above freezing across central Kansas on Thursday, any precip that does sneak into the area should be just rain; however, chances remain below 20% at this time.
837 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 Evening Update: The cold frontal passage during the late afternoon has brought light snow across much of Northeast Montana. Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow and beyond as high pressure fills into the area. 3PM UPDATE: Snow has made its way down out of Canada behind the cold front and will sweep in successive waves across the region through the overnight hours. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough the Intermountain West up into British Columbia. Northeast Montana lies in a meso- ridge under southwest flow aloft. Farther West, zonal flow followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridge is moving over the northern Pacific. Today through Tonight: Cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing light rain which will quickly transition to snow.
00Z weather maps show a deep layer trof aligned over the four corners of the Desert southwest with southwest flow at high levels from Texas to the central Appalachians. A small upper level short- wave trof was skirting northeast over the central Gulf coast causing an expanse in cloud cover. A slight chance of showers possible over the northwest FL Panhandle coast and the Florida waters where a moisture axis/weak trof moves northward off the Gulf around a low level ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. There are indications bays and sounds could be dealing with an extended duration of advective type marine fog given warm, moist southeast flow atop cooler waters. The large upper trof migrates eastward across the Plains on Thursday with the base of the mean trof position sharpening Thursday night and Friday.
1053 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Tonight) Relatively tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region with high pressure to the east of the area promoting southerly flow. However, scattered decks of clouds will continue to stream northeast into the region overnight ahead of a developing low pressure system over the southern Plains. In fact, it will be the first time in nearly a week that lows will remain above the freezing mark -- bottoming out in the low to mid 40s in most locations.
1038 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (This evening through Thursday) This afternoon, conditions were blustery, thanks to a low pressure system parked over the central Plains. At the upper-levels, a broad trough has set up across the western US, with much of the southern Plains out ahead of this system. Gusty south to southwest winds have brought warmer and drier air throughout west Texas today.
Have decided to cancel the High Wind Warning for GDP, but will make mention some near HWW criteria gusts are possible over the next 2-4 hrs. Modest height falls will allow for cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday where several places breached the 70F mark, a far cry from where we were not even 5 days ago.
A broad trough remains over the region for the next 24 hours, so although the best dynamics have moved out, light mountain and mountain pass snowfall will continue due to simple upslope flow and weak synoptic lift. Temperatures cool by about 10 degrees on Thursday, as geopotential heights decrease, clear overnight skies allow the surface to radiate out more efficiently, and weak cold air advection brings a cooler air mass into the region.
Winds decrease across the lower elevations and Davis Mountains with high winds remaining across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains into late tonight. Highs on Thursday will be a tad cooler, but still above normal in the upper 50s to 60s.
1155 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (This evening through Friday) Upper level trof over the western US was continuing to dig southward across the Rockies and will continue to move eastward toward the area tonight and tomorrow. Southerly flow has increased low level moisture levels, and a warm front will push up over the area tonight and tomorrow bringing a much warmer and humid airmass to the region.
1240 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure will persist through Friday.
1120 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 A wet and mild weekend is expected as a warm front is making its way from the Gulf region into the Mid-South with a chance of a few light showers. These few light showers will be followed by the arrival of an upstream trough bringing scattered warm advection showers early tomorrow morning. These showers are anticipated to continue throughout the day prior to a cold frontal passage that will increase rainfall, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, as it stalls over the AR/MO region. Freezing temperatures are no longer in site as highs will remain in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
341 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
A cold front will move through Thursday evening, but temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.
349 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Discussion/Marine - Warm and wet weather ahead A quasi stationary high over the Atlantic has a ridge to extend through Nova Scotia. This has allowed warmer air to be advected into the the Great Lakes today and into tomorrow. An amplifying trough the will continue deepen through the central plains will ride the ridge bringing a tightening gradient through SW Michigan. The upper level trough will be amplified through the mid and lower levels.
Considerable mid and upper level moisture ahead of a large upper trough to our west, will result in mostly cloudy skies through tonight. High temperatures today will still be above normal but around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the mid and upper 60s.
Initially snow levels will be low but as the warm front moves through snow levels will rise through out the day and tonight. The warmer air will move into the coastal range this morning and by early afternoon snow levels will rise above 7000 feet so have ended the time period at 2 pm this afternoon.
643 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will amplify while slowly drifting eastward, pushing temperatures well above normal for late December. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend, followed by drier and briefly cooler conditions for New Years Day. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
Mostly clear to party cloudy and warmer today and tonight. Amplifying troughing across the southern Great Plains will also increase southwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. With the southerly 850mb flow and increasing 850mb temperatures, max temperatures today are once again expected to be several degrees warmer - about 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. With upper ridging and SW flow across the area, we remain dry with increasing mid to high level clouds across the Tennessee Valley.