Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
KABR is 90F with a dew point of 68F, so there is juicy air just to south of the low. Thermal ridging to move into the area this afternoon. Water vapor loop also indicated upper level trough over ALTA/BC/ID area. Trough forecast to move across central SASK and northern MAN this afternoon and tonight. System will send a cold front across the area tonight. Water vapor loop indicated another upper low off the southern CA coast. Trough is forecast to move into ND on Tue and bring another chance for storms.
343 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A shearing out upper level trough located over N Texas and in the building upper level ridge will help keep rain and thunderstorms chances across SE Texas late this afternoon and again on Monday.
A MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains later today/tonight.
Any higher cloud cover from weakening convection into late evening should diminish overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Position of ridge axis will again favor interior sections for late day thunderstorms focused along sea breezes and outflow boundaries. High temperature near the east coast top out around 90 while the interior sections will climb into the low-mid 90s for highs. Developing troffiness aloft over the Gulf with ample feed of moisture over the area. Low level ridge axis will be displaced to the south of the area. with values creeping back up to the high end scattered to likely PoPs through the mid to late week. Onshore winds near sunset from the sea breeze pushing inland will become S/SW overnight as ridge axis begins to shift south. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis will shift to the south early in the week.
With max temps in the lower to mid 90s and afternoon dew points in the lower 70s, heat indices could climb to 100-105 degrees today.
Estimates are that there was approximately 5000 lightning strikes in the Permian Basin alone since midnight! Ridging will be centered over the TX/NM border. As a trof moves ashore and into the Intermountain West on Monday the ridge will still be centered over Texas. Temps will heat up to above normal with a drier boundary layer and the thermal ridge edging closer. Medium range models are in general agreement with a trof in the Western US and a ridge centered in the Southern Plains.
259 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016 An upper level trough over southern California will move northeast into the four corners area Monday and across Colorado Monday night. Southwest aloft will increase ahead of this trough. Expect a period of sun tomorrow morning ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Mid levels will cool and the southwest flow will increase with the nearing of the trough.
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Look for the breakdown of the upper level ridge to continue through Monday. Expect slightly cooler air Monday, as dry high pressure settles into the region.
Southern branch of a split onshore flow pattern is crossing the Great Basin this afternoon in the form of a trough over Nevada.
213 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and early Monday. A secondary cold front/trough will move into or through the area Monday morning. The GFS is more aggressive driving slightly cooler/drier air south of the region than NAM. and this is reflected in the cooler MAV guidance. Weak downslope early and warm advection/upper level ridge/mos cool bias suggest temperatures will only be a little cooler. So continued forecast maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s as surface winds shift to east.
/issued 417 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016/ Latest surface analysis shows high pressure continues to maintain its influence over the local area. This boundary begins to move back east as a warm front Tues morning as The upper ridging breaks down and upper trough moves east across the MS river valley.
Chances for any initiation will wane further through the afternoon as influence of upper-level high pressure takes over. near the base of the low-level inversion. /issued 434 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Although 500 mb high pressure will be retrograding across the Gulf of Mexico, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. However, tonight through Monday, as the ridge moves even closer to the BRO CWFA, with new and more amplified ridging developing over the Lone Star State in tandem, dry weather will prevail for the forecast area.
A weak cold front will slowly sag through central Indiana today and could be just enough to force a thunderstorm this afternoon across southern parts of the area. After that high pressure builds and dry weather is expected until Monday night. The strong upper ridge over the area gets suppressed starting Monday night and after that time will see thunderstorm chances every period as upper waves moves through the main flow and then a cut off upper low makes its way from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
233 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016 20z surface analysis had low pressure near K2D5 with cold front to KANW to northern CO. High pressure over southeast MT with northwesterly winds over CWA. A narrow band of 1-2KJ/kg has developed ahead of cold front with some post frontal convection over south central SD. This jet will push tail end of old cold front back into northeast WY under increasing low level southeast boundary layer flow. Monday, upper trough moves toward the plains as a better piece of energy moves from the four corners area into CO and WY and then into the Dakotas late. Suspect about 1KJ/kg MLCAPE will be available along trough that will move from western portions of the CWA to the SD plains Monday night.
206 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Abundant sunshine will continue through the evening hours as cooler and much drier air has replaced the warm and muggy air mass of yesterday. Another mostly sunny day expected Monday with high pressure at the surface and building heights aloft. A weak upper-level wave rounding the upper ridge axis will stream moisture across our north Monday evening, which should bring high clouds back to the area, but little more.
223 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front continues southward push.
605 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area for tonight and Monday.
348 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area for tonight and Monday.
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 At H5 upper ridge has shifted east over Mississippi valley with 500mb wave underneath centered over Arkalatex. Closed low over the Northeast conus. Closed low over west central Canada followed by Gulf of Alaska closed low. Deep trough extending into southwest conus. The main forecast challenges over the next 24 hours are thunder chances associated with a cold front passage.
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front continues southward push.
The ridge of high pressure that has kept mostly dry conditions in place across the state has broken down. with an area of upper level low pressure moving towards the state this morning. This upper low.
Additional convection may develop nearly anywhere in the area, although KTYR appears to have the lowest chances of rain. near a slow moving weak closed low over Ern OK. Will also have to contend with heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees across the srn zones of Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA given the current dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and temps climbing to the lower 90s this afternoon.
An upper low continues to impact central California today with numerous showers over the Sierra Nevada and isolated showers over the San Joaquin Valley. However, the high res models indicate moderate surface instability over much of the San Joaquin Valley between 21z today and 03z Monday. The upper trough will slowly drift east into Nevada tonight into Monday morning, resulting in mostly dry conditions across the area. Brief upper level ridging will take place over central California on Monday resulting in slightly above normal temperatures for the region.
Cooler temperatures return to the region with highs only rising up into the low 80s on Monday.
Strong upper level ridge remains in place across the mid section of the country, including southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
Upper high over the Gulf of Mexico and ridge over W. TX/NM/Chihuahua continue to try to "bridge" together, which will minimize. Upper low now over North TX was previously progged to weaken and drift away toward the NE but seems to have been re-energized a bit by last night's MCC over W. Latest model runs now have it rotating around the ridge and down through E.
208 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and early Monday. A secondary cold front/trough will move into or through the area Monday morning. The GFS is more aggressive driving slightly cooler/drier air south of the region than NAM. and this is reflected in the cooler MAV guidance. Weak downslope early and warm advection/upper level ridge/mos cool bias suggest temperatures will only be a little cooler. So continued forecast maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s as surface winds shift to east.
Furthermore the parent weak upper low will continue to slowly trek eastward and further maintain precip chances both late tonight and especially. with the highest chances being over far E OK and western AR.
Again daytime heating and weak pre-frontal troughs/boundaries will have the biggest impact on sensible weather today. The main jetstream and cooler air continues to extend from central Illinois eastward into southern Ohio this morning. Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s. Therefore, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable in most locations despite expected cloud cover development. Combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, heat index values will climb to between 100 and 105 degrees in spots.
304 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A dry cold front will continue to shift south over the area through the rest of the afternoon. High pressure will build over the area through Monday.
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Abundant sunshine will continue through the evening hours as cooler and much drier air has replaced the warm and muggy air mass of yesterday. Another mostly sunny day expected Monday with high pressure at the surface and building heights aloft. A weak upper-level wave rounding the upper ridge axis will stream moisture across our north Monday evening, which should bring high clouds back to the area, but little more.
The upper level ridge continues to impact the region with hot temperatures and dry conditions. Hot temperatures will continue despite the ridge breaking down this week, and continuing chances for precip will be in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Look for the thunderstorms to taper off by late morning as CAPE gets pushed west and high pressure builds in from the northeast. Cooler temperatures expected across the area today as a cold front moved in from the northeast overnight. Plan on highs today ranging from the lower 70s across northcentral Wisconsin to around 80 over northeast Iowa. A cold front then pushes into the forecast area from the northwest late tonight into Monday and the warmer unstable airmass pushes back into the area ahead of the front. A cold front will meander south across the area on Monday. The front then stalls out across Iowa and northern Illinois Monday night and lifts back to the north as a warm front as a trough pushes northeast out of the Plains.
A flat upper level ridge will remain over the region today. Flow over the region will turn more southwesterly tonight as an upper low shifts south-southeast through the northern Gulf of Alaska. High temps will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday due to the sunny conditions, lighter winds and warmer air aloft.
404 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Mid-level ridging oriented along the mid and upper MS valley will remain nearly stationary through the period. The combination of wet-bulb freezing levels around 11kft and marginal cloud-layer shear support the potential for sub-severe hail in any stronger updrafts. Surface ridging will build back into the upper lakes by late Monday ending the rain chances. Models still suggesting rex blocking pattern setting up for much of the upcoming week with upper lows over the Pacific Northwest and the northeast U. with substantial upper ridging over the central U. With surface ridging nosing down from Ontario into the U.
A cool upper trough will slowly cross the Great Basin today through Monday.
Sunshine and temperatures in the 70s this afternoon remain in place thanks to high pressure over the region. An upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest and closed low off the coast of British Columbia will help orient southwest upper flow over Montana.
119 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today along with morning drizzle. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a weak upper low over the area. This upper low is resulting in some instability over the mountains. The upper low has also resulted in a deep marine layer that was close to 5000 ft earlier this morning. The low clouds will be stubborn to burn off this afternoon and most areas probably won't see any clearing.
closed low off sw CA and a trough in the western U. and a ridge in the central U. trough today and moves over the ridge tonight and helps to flatten it a bit over the central U. Surface ridging will build back into the upper lakes by late Monday ending the rain chances. Models still suggesting rex blocking pattern setting up for much of the upcoming week with upper lows over the Pacific Northwest and the northeast U. with substantial upper ridging over the central U. With surface ridging nosing down from Ontario into the U.
Medium Mid level ridge proggd to collapse briefly as vorticity axis slides through. Warmer/more humid airmass poised to return as traj suggests this more unstable regime will get pulled back into srn WI as LLVL winds turn more southwest. The lower MOS values may be a bit better in regard to moisture return. 925 temps returning to low/mid 20s C suggest the warmer NAM MOS may be more on track.
1026 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 The area dries out today as weak high pressure builds in. The next cold front sweeps through the region Monday afternoon and night.
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Quick update to remove thunderstorm chances over the far southeast cwa as cold front has moved through the forecast area.
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Continuing to look at convective chances tonight as cold front approaches from the west. As of 20z, cold front poised between Chamberlain and the James River Valley. High pressure builds into the northern plains on Monday, with a gradual decreasing trend of pops from north to south throughout the day.
During the short term phase of the forecast, we will see the high amplitude long wave ridge aloft strengthen early in the period, then begin to fill/dirty as a heat Low develops across the mid South during the latter half of the period. Looking at model sounding data, we see lapse rates from 6 to 9 C/km in the lower 6 km of the trop today. Tmrw (Mon) is a similar day, as we see the upper High aloft losing its distinction and the lower trop flow starting to establish southerlies just to our west.
Temperatures will remain near normal to slightly above normal with overnight lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s close to the coast to the lower to mid 90s inland. By midweek, models still forecast a mid/upper level trough to move across the Eastern Gulf.
After the cool morning on Monday temperatures will warm to several degrees above average ahead of a cold front. This cold front is forecast to move into north central Idaho during Monday evening and through western Montana overnight.
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and early Monday. A secondary cold front/trough will move into or through the area Monday morning. The GFS is more aggressive driving slightly cooler/drier air south of the region than NAM. and this is reflected in the cooler MAV guidance. Weak downslope early and warm advection/upper level ridge/mos cool bias suggest temperatures will only be a little cooler. So continued forecast maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s as surface winds shift to east.
Satellite imagery showed plenty of outflow boundaries spread across the area overnight, seeding the lower atmosphere with some moisture. The broad coast-to-coast high pressure over the southern tier states will begin to be shunted to the south and east. A strong closed low will move out of the Pacific Northwest and move to western Montana by late Friday afternoon. Later Friday night the closed low will continue moving along the Canadian border and drag a cold front over NE Utah and NW CO.
Building high pressure will lead to an inland warming trend Friday and through the weekend. SFO Bridge Approach.
1053 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cooler today with showers and thunderstorms chances through the afternoon. This is all dependent on cloud coverage and at this time the probability looks low as surface temperatures would have to substantially increase up to at least the lower 80s hit convective temperatures and result in any meaningful CAPE. Quiet weather will return for Friday as high pressure builds down from the north.
935 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cooler temperatures today and Friday with highs near normal.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 900 am overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts an arcing middle and upper ridge in place from West Texas east southeastwards to north of the Northern Bahamas. South of that, weak and broad middle and upper ridging is in place across all of the Gulf of Mexico and the Western and Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and Central America. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. Latest available marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 900 am detail a near 1020 mb ridge oriented from the Western Atlantic to across the Florida Peninsula to the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Rest of today, weak ridging will remain to the immediate north of the islands through the rest of the day. Another weak low level trough will move across the islands through this afternoon.
Building high pressure will lead to an inland warming trend Friday and through the weekend.
701 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure tracking across Ohio will keep thunderstorms in the forecast today into tonight.
914 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure ridge will continue to drift South across the region Today.
Flat upper ridge over the region is shifting slowly east in advance of deep low off the WA/BC coast. The backed flow aloft will allow for warmer great basin air to surge into our cwa, with 700mb temps rising toward +14C, yielding high temps back into the 90s today. Western upper low will then move into the northern Rockies bringing increasing ascent along with a strong Pacific cold front. The combination of convection along this strong cold front could bring strong winds to our north/east parts Friday evening, especially along a line from Hysham to Forsyth, Miles City and Baker, though it should be noted that the overall severe threat will be greater up in northeast MT. Temps on Friday will be pre-frontal and again quite mild with highs up to the lower-mid 90s across our central/east parts.
A cold front, possibly enhanced or supplemented by outflow from the overnight MCS, will sink southward into Kentucky by evening and drift across the Commonwealth tonight. Surface dew points will be in the lower and middle 70s. Wet bulb zeroes are a little on the high side today, but some severe hail will still be possible in the tallest storms thanks in part to that dry layer aloft.
1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Low pressure will pass through the region today and the associated cold front is expected to slowly move through the area tonight into Friday.
626 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate through the period for widespread VFR conditions. The exception will be later in the period when a cold front approaches the northern terminals. Today through Friday night Upper ridge remains in place but has been been flattened out by a short wave trough thats moving through the Ohio valley. This trough is producing widespread severe weather in the Ohio Valley as it merges with a larger trough off the eastern seaboard. As Ohio Valley system moves into the eastern United States, it will drag a cold front towards the region from the north.
722 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A stationary front over the area will begin to move south as a cold front today.
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure tracking across Ohio will keep thunderstorms in the forecast today into tonight.
Clouds increase from west to east starting around 20-22Z as a weak trough and accompanying moisture move east of the Continental Divide.
(Issued 548 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) The central TN valley remains beneath a strong 500-mb ridge, which currently extends from the southern Rockies east-southeastward across the Gulf coast and into the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas.
Warm start to this morning as temps were mainly in the lower 70s. That trend continues with current obs across the TN Valley ranging from the lower 80s under some cloud cover in NE AL to the upper 80s in NW AL. High pressure remains anchored across the region along with mid and upper-level dry air as seen on WV satellite. High temps today will be in the low-mid 90s.
Weak ridging aloft and a stagnant pattern means not a whole lot of change in the conditions today, a little warmer here and a little cooler there. The weekend is still expected to bring a warmup as 4 Corners upper high develops and a high pres ridge spreads across much of Southern and Central California.
1129 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 VFR conditions to continue through Friday morning as a subtropical ridge of high pressure to remain centered across much of the Gulf Coast region. /issued 540 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ High pressure centered over TX bringing mostly vfr SKC conditions areawide with only a few wispy cirrus clouds.
1244 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cooler today with isolated showers the remainder of the afternoon. If cloud coverage does lessen over the course of the afternoon surface temperatures would need to at least hit the lowers 80s to reach convective temperatures and result in any meaningful surface-based cape. Quiet weather will return for Friday as high pressure builds down from the north.
1046 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cooler today with showers and thunderstorms chances through the afternoon. Quiet weather will return for Friday as high pressure builds down from the north.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 94 76 / 10 50 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 74 92 71 / 20 40 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 93 74 92 70 / 20 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 70 87 65 / 40 50 30 20.
High pressure will provide dry weather for the weekend. A weak trough/front is in between that air and slightly lower dewpoint airmass across the northern half of the state. The heating provided in the clear- er air will allow CAPEs to rise and an approaching short wave trough will help to kick off additional showers/storms this afternoon. and the track of low pressure along this boundary.
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1251 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Light showers should end today as a cold front and associated low pressure system move out of the area.
This could result in very isolated shower development generally along and north of I-59, but coverage is expected to remain only around 10% due to the warm, dry air aloft associated with the ridge. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday. Showers and storms will develop ahead of a cold front moving into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, and there remains a small chance that a shower or storm could reach the far northern forecast area tonight after midnight due to the northwest flow aloft. However, only the WRF-ARW is showing anything reaching the forecast area, and the front has been trending slower due to the upper-level ridge.
1236 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure tracks east across a stalled frontal boundary located just north of the area today.