Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the ridge flattens we will see increasing mid level winds tonight and Tuesday, and feel that this may be when higher gusts begin to emerge. JKL Large-scale upper ridging will prevail over the western CONUS at midweek leading to mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions for our region.
452 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 This morning a mid-level trough is positioned over the eastern CONUS, and a mid-level ridge is sitting over the Four Corners region. Monday night into Tuesday a low-level ridge will pass over the mid- Mississippi Valley, and throw the region into southwesterly low- level flow for Tuesday. MRM Caught between a ridge and a trough, the mid-level northwesterly flow will dominate through the remainder of the work week.
The ascent associated with this trough is pronounced and isentropic progs indicate strong lift overspreading from the southwest. While the lower troposphere will initially be quite parched thanks to our recent frontal intrusion, evaporative cooling and more importantly sublimation often prove to be formidable opponents to dry air. I've added a 15% chance for a rain/sleet mix for areas near and west of the US HWY 281 corridor as the lower levels saturate and cool during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. NO impacts are expected at this time as any type of accumulating precipitation will be very light and surface temperatures will be well above freezing.
459 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Cold front approaching the peninsula this morning as trough aloft moves across E CONUS. SW'ly winds ahead of the front shift out of the N/NW in its wake and gradually veer to N/NE into tonight into Tue and increase in response to gradient as high pressure builds into the state. VFR conditions early before MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys expected to affect terminals through part of the period as a cold front moves across the state with patchy early morning BR and late morning/afternoon VCSH.
Dry and seasonable weather continues through the mid portions of the upcoming week as high pressure dominates the weather. The ridge of high pressure that has brought the nice weather has shifted off to the east. For tonight, the weak wave will pass overhead and to the east, allowing for ridging to build in once again. High pressure will continue to build across the southwestern United States through Tuesday.
351 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Upper level ridging continues to develop over the region while a trough approaches the Pacific Coast per latest GOES 16/17 Satellite imagery.
Light largely easterly breezes will back to the north heading into tonight as a cold front pushes southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will freshen moderately tonight as the cold front spills into Keys waters.
High pressure will bring dry and stable conditions to the region through much of the upcoming week.
327 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Upper level ridge will be over Colorado today with weak flow aloft. The ridge will bring warmer air today. The ridge fizzles out tonight with westerly flow replacing it. A weak upper level trough, in NW flow aloft, will move over the area on Tue. For Wed into Thu, an upper level ridge will build into the area. This will lead to dry conditions with warmer temperatures. On Fri, an upper level trough and cold front will move across the area.
Abundant high clouds cover the region as a weak system moves through the West Coast ridge. Current temperatures in the Central Valley range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, a mixed bag with some areas running about 5 degrees milder and some areas about 5 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Little change expected much of this week as high pressure will maintain dry weather with mild days, cool nights (except for the foothill thermal belts and mountain ridges) and patches of late night valley fog and frost.
Above zero temperatures were starting to move into southwestern North Dakota, near a warm front. As the high pressure drifts southeast today, winds will turn to the south, and the clouds over the central Dakotas will push through the FA. As the warm front over the western Dakotas pushes east tonight, winds will pick up a little more, and may turn to the southwest for locations west of the Red River Valley. So despite temperatures rising back into the 20s and low 30s, the west wind will make it feel about 10 to 15 degrees cooler.
upper ridge pattern translates east, the arctic air mass will retreat. The upper ridging will also help provide large scale subsidence and dry weather conditions across NE Montana.
The colder airmass has settled into the region with surface observations showing temperatures from the low teens to near 20 as of early this morning. Temperature wise, Tuesday will be slightly warmer than today but still cold with highs maxing out near freezing.
Key Points: - Warmer temperatures on track for much of this week - Very high fire danger for parts of northeast and east central Kansas Tuesday afternoon - Chance of precipitation for the end of the work week Early this morning a upper level trough was moving across the Eastern Pacific toward the northwest coast, while an upper ridge was located from British Columbia southward into Arizona. Out east, a broad trough was moving across the eastern States leaving the central Plains within a dry northwest flow pattern. A warming trend begins today as heights rise across the central and southern Plains as the northwest trough progresses eastward into the western states. Tonight, southerly winds develop on the backside of the high and the lower boundary layer toward central Kansas will remain mixed through the night.
Outside of a sprinkle, the increased cloud cover has limited fog potential and and led to warmer overnight lows. For the rest of today - expect a mix of sun and clouds as the upper level trough and decay front move east.
Very strong low to mid-level warm advection will occur ahead of a trough on Tuesday, maximized around 850 mb, thanks to a 50-60 kt low-level jet.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning has brought on some gusty north winds and good cold air advection. With the immensely dry conditions behind the front, decreasing winds, and clearing skies, the Big Country could see some radiational cooling with temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 20s. Further south, temperatures will remain closer to freezing as radiational cooling conditions will be much less ideal with more ample cloud cover and lingering winds.
Morning lows, which are expected right around daybreak, will be in the teens for warmer spots, and in the single digits below zero for the typical coldest spots. High pressure is very firmly in place today, with a few high clouds rotating around the edge of the ridge over Wyoming and eastern Utah. Despite the abundant sunshine, high temperatures today will run a few degrees colder than yesterday, especially for the lower valleys thanks to inversions setting up under the dome of high pressure. Tuesday morning lows will be warmer than this morning thanks to the increased cloud cover limiting the efficiency of radiational cooling. Skies will begin to clear Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds back in over the Great Basin.
350 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Upper level ridging continues to develop over the region while a trough approaches the Pacific Coast per latest GOES 16/17 Satellite imagery.
Continued cold air advection will keep our temperatures cool today, with highs in the lower teens north, and near 20 south. The ridge will move over Monday night, allowing winds to become light and variable at some locations. The ridge will be to our east early Tuesday morning, bringing light southerly winds. Low level southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures, but with the deep cold pocket in place, in addition to snow cover, it will take some time to warm up, and high temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s.
430 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Sfc map shows cold front now well south of the area, with 1040 MB high pres acrs AR/MO/OK building into the area.
331 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring additional warming today with most areas warming to the 30s and 40s by this afternoon.
Broad upper level ridging across the western US will help support a dry forecast through Tuesday. Ample warm air advection into the region with 850mb temperatures surging into the 4C to 10C range will support a surge of warmer air into the region. A weak trough will push through the region Tuesday night, and while no precipitation is expected, some stronger winds could be possible with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph.
523 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 High clouds may thicken mid to late morning mainly KLBB as an upper level low pressure just west of El Paso develops and edges to the east. A weak upper trough overhead early this morning will give way to minor upper level height building this afternoon before a weak compact mid level low pressure approaches from northern Mexico late tonight. The first will be Tuesday as a closed low moves over our region. The main area of lift with this system is expected to remain south of the area as the center of the low moves overhead. We will begin to warm back above normal going into the middle of the week as an upper-level ridge to our west moves towards the area and heights begin to build over the region.
High pressure will slide in Tuesday morning cutting off northwest flow and put a stop to the lake enhanced showers. - Warming Mid-Week Strong high pressure will move to our southeast into the Ohio Valley Tuesday with a surge of warm air advection kicking off Tuesday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A cold front moved south of the Rio Grande overnight, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms and breezy to windy northerly winds. As high pressure behind the front continues to settle overhead on Tuesday, winds will remain northerly through the period. While weak coastal troughing will set up over the Southwestern Gulf for the first part of this week, rain chances will remain concentrated south of our waters, helping keep Deep South Texas mostly dry on Tuesday. Due to the elevated wave heights behind the cold front that will be slow to subside, dangerous currents will be present in the surf.
Colder and drier air has moved into the state behind the cold front that moved through on Sun. and lows Tue night also warmer in the 30s to near 40.
/issued 349 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A cold front moved south of the Rio Grande overnight, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms and breezy to windy northerly winds. As high pressure behind the front continues to settle overhead on Tuesday, winds will remain northerly through the period. While weak coastal troughing will set up over the Southwestern Gulf for the first part of this week, rain chances will remain concentrated south of our waters, helping keep Deep South Texas mostly dry on Tuesday. Due to the elevated wave heights behind the cold front that will be slow to subside, dangerous currents will be present in the surf.
Behind this, High pressure is expected to overspread the area today through Tuesday, then moving into the southeast coast.
As high pressure strengthens today, this will help to reinforce inversions and keep valley temperatures from warming much through the day.
Look for temperatures to be near or below freezing again tonight.
While southerly winds will return today, they will stay pretty light and only increase a couple of degrees this evening in between the high nearing the Ohio River Valley and elongated trough/warm front moving across the western Dakotas in the evening and the eastern Dakotas by 12Z Tuesday, and then quickly to our east.
318 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Key Points: - Warmer temperatures on track for much of this week - Very high fire danger for parts of northeast and east central Kansas Tuesday afternoon - Chance of precipitation for the end of the work week Early this morning a upper level trough was moving across the Eastern Pacific toward the northwest coast, while an upper ridge was located from British Columbia southward into Arizona. Out east, a broad trough was moving across the eastern States leaving the central Plains within a dry northwest flow pattern. A warming trend begins today as heights rise across the central and southern Plains as the northwest trough progresses eastward into the western states. Tonight, southerly winds develop on the backside of the high and the lower boundary layer toward central Kansas will remain mixed through the night.
246 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 09z surface analysis had warm front from northeast MT into northeast NE. Lee trough was located from central MT into southeast WY. Upper ridge per water vapour over the Rockies the main concern this forecast period.
Air temps are still falling with freezing at DeQueen for the cold spot and mostly a range of 30s north with less clouds. Elsewhere, readings are in the low to mid 40s with NE winds at 5 to 10 mph. The high to our due west modifies in place while the second air mass ends up in the upper OH valley early Tuesday making for another frosty night for us in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the East Coast and Upper Midwest with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. An upper low is positioned over southeast Arizona and may result in a few light rain showers from Culberson County to the Davis Mountains this morning.
Winds across the Keys area has relaxed substantially over the past day as the driving high pressure system retreats eastwards. For the time being the lower to mid level ridge remains across our area and resides under a southern stream upper trough aligned over the Yucatan. While temperatures and dew points will start gliding downwards closer to normal, the environment will remain uncapped and what was anticyclonic flow in the lower to mid levels will transition to neutral or slightly cyclonic. Through mid week, the frontal boundary will stall near the Keys as the upper long wave trough anchors itself more fully across the eastern United States.
Overall pattern tendency over the CONUS will favor ridge west / trof east.
512 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 (Today) High pressure will reign supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today.
/issued 459 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022/ Cold front approaching the peninsula this morning as trough aloft moves across E CONUS. SW'ly winds ahead of the front shift out of the N/NW in its wake and gradually veer to N/NE into tonight into Tue and increase in response to gradient as high pressure builds into the state.
925 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 A cold front will be working its way through the state today. /issued 459 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022/ Cold front approaching the peninsula this morning as trough aloft moves across E CONUS. SW'ly winds ahead of the front shift out of the N/NW in its wake and gradually veer to N/NE into tonight into Tue and increase in response to gradient as high pressure builds into the state.
The pressure gradient will weaken this evening into tonight though as high pressure moves over the area. The vorticity max with the trough will remain mainly to the north of our area Tuesday night.
This includes an elongated trough and weak negative PV anomaly stalled over southern AZ, a compact high amplitude ridge over the Great Basin, and a well defined low pressure system cutting off well west of the Baja coast. This is not unusual in this type of pattern evolution, and will continue to result in lower than usual forecast confidence until the overall blocking can be resolved. Towards the middle of the week, the aforementioned Baja cutoff will continue to drift south allowing pronounced ridging to build into the Southwest. Given this scenario, it would only take some clearing and marginally deeper mixing depths to create a warmer outcome; and based on the greater H5 anomaly and historical precedent, it would be very conceivable if afternoon highs Wed and Thurs were much warmer than the requisite NBM forecast.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Low clouds and patchy drizzle are clearing out nicely this morning as an upper trough axis passes north to south in the wake of last night's cold front.
As an area of high pressure approaches this evening, winds will become lighter and variable. Latest satellite imagery shows a gradual clearing now underway as drier air behind yesterday's cold front continues to filter into the area.
445 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring additional warming today with most areas warming to the 30s and 40s by this afternoon.
Latest satellite imagery shows a gradual clearing now underway as drier air behind yesterday's cold front continues to filter into the area.
246 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Pretty short term period coming, with H5 ridging building across the Intermountain West. With the ridging building overhead, bringing in warmer air aloft, both of these will strengthen inversions holding in local basins through today and tomorrow. Minimal change in the pattern for Tuesday brings another cool day for basin and warmer conditions off the eastern slopes of local ranges.
357 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 09z surface analysis had warm front from northeast MT into northeast NE. Lee trough was located from central MT into southeast WY. Upper ridge per water vapour over the Rockies the main concern this forecast period.
High pressure will then rebuild overhead and promote dry weather through midweek.
A deep trough along the mid-Atlantic region this morning will eject northeastward during the day. Despite ample sunshine today, northerly flow will hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s. As the aformentioned east coast trough pushes further offshore, a split flow upper level pattern forms across the CONUS.
248 AM PST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure brings inversions, valley air stagnation, and areas of degraded air quality through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, a low pressure system will bring an increased chance of rain and mountain snow during the latter half of the work week with slightly cooler temperatures. Latest deterministic models showed a weak upper low developing over far southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico today before traveling well east of the area by tomorrow. Otherwise, the flow pattern over the East Pacific and western United States will remain somewhat complex as ensembles were favoring a more blocked pattern, with an amplified ridge over the Great Basin and a cutoff low positioned well west of the Baja coast.
Based on the 850mb temperature warmup it appears the highs today will climb 50 to 55 degree range by late day. Tonight a trough of low pressure will deepens over eastern Colorado as a weak cold front crosses Nebraska. Increasing winds and warmer boundary layer temperatures forecast Monday night ahead of the approaching cold front will limit how low temperatures will fall by early Tuesday morning. On Tuesday an upper level trough is forecast to exit the Rockies and cross the Central Plains and a weak surface boundary/cold front will cross western Kansas. Little, if any, cooler air is forecast to filter into western Kansas behind this Tuesday system. Northwesterly downslope flow will improve across eastern Colorado and western Kansas midweek as a developing upper level ridge over the Western United States moves east towards the Rockies.
Temperatures will be about a category warmer, as axis of 925dm thermal trough has moved east of the forecast area, and temperatures at 925dm will be about 5 degrees warmer. Most of the forecast area will experience temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across Iowa. On Tuesday, slightly more upper level ridging and stronger southwest flow will allow temperatures to bounce nearly 20 degrees, though passage of weak frontal boundary and some mid- to high level clouds may mitigate potential warm-up.
The current forecast looked pretty good this morning as deep nwly flow dominates aloft reinforcing intruding cool/dry high pressure at the surface. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 26 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 22 41 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 21 41 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 17 36 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Currently we have a cold front sitting just north of I-4.
1040 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Post-frontal conditions continue with northerly winds maintaining dew points in the 20s area wide and maximum temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s by this afternoon. Air temps are still falling with freezing at DeQueen for the cold spot and mostly a range of 30s north with less clouds. Elsewhere, readings are in the low to mid 40s with NE winds at 5 to 10 mph. The high to our due west modifies in place while the second air mass ends up in the upper OH valley early Tuesday making for another frosty night for us in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
149 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Upper level low near the bootheel of New Mexico will slowly track east across West Texas into North Texas by late Tuesday afternoon. This low will not bring much more than some high clouds across the southern Texas Panhandle.
Otherwise, a surface warm front extended from nw to se across western sd late this morning. The far southwest cwa will see some above freezing temperatures to maybe 35 degrees while the far northeast cwa will be from zero to 10 above for highs this afternoon. While southerly winds will return today, they will stay pretty light and only increase a couple of degrees this evening in between the high nearing the Ohio River Valley and elongated trough/warm front moving across the western Dakotas in the evening and the eastern Dakotas by 12Z Tuesday, and then quickly to our east.
Forecast soundings suggest this will be the case with cooling potential to near freezing just above the surface with initial precipitation. Given that surface temperatures will be well above freezing, no impacts are expected.
Then, as the high pressure ridge slides across the area winds will become light to calm for a period tonight.
Heading into tonight, the high pressure cell to our south in TX slides east while lee troughing begins to develop ahead of the aforementioned trough.
SKC will result in VFR conds through the TAF period as high pressure moves over the state. Light Nrly winds today will transition to Srly by Tuesday as high pressure slides east. Colder and drier air has moved into the state behind the cold front that moved through on Sun. and lows Tue night also warmer in the 30s to near 40.
A Freezing Fog Advisory is in effect for the Kittitas Valley, but web cams show it fairly clear along I-90. A weak warm front is riding north across western WA with some precipitation spilling over to the east slopes of WA. There may be some patchy freezing rain mixed in with snow but the threat looks minimal.
The longwave upper-level trough, located over the Great Lakes region, will continue its eastward movement throughout the day today. Zonal flow aloft will turn northwesterly once the trough's axis passes overhead this afternoon. At the surface, the cold front is well to the south and east of our area. High pressure will be in control throughout the near term period as it builds over the Midwest and moves southeastward. The low cloud deck from this morning has lifted and eroded.
This high will usher in cooler temps, around 5 degrees cooler on average for tonight.
Models show a weak surface trof moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys this afternoon. Winds will briefly turn from north to west-southwest ahead of this trof this morning, then back to north behind it by 00z. High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to a degree or two warmer than Monday under sunny skies, but Tuesday night lows will be much warmer around 30 degrees.