Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 A VERTICALLY STACKED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE GOING FORWARD TODAY. SREF AND NAMDNG5 PROBABILITIES FOR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN THREE HOURS INCREASE INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SPILLED ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE LOW TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING THE ADVERTISED SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT.
600 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH NO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. TUCKER COUNTY WV IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW RATIOS PROGGED. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
704 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH RESPECT TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO BUILD NORTH TO THE OXFORD AREA. WITH BEST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL JUST NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE. AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY SHOULD SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOST OF TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OVER THESE AREAS.
247 AM PST MON FEB 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND THE DEEP AND COLD EASTERN U. TROUGH FIRMLY LOCKED IN PLACE.
ANOTHER WARM FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK THANKS TO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST.
330 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2015 Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the week under high pressure. Amplified ridge centered along the west coast will maintain the dry and mild weather pattern for the region.
AND SOUTHWEST IN COLDER AIR THERE WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW SOUTHERLY 7-12 KNOTS. WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS. TEXARKANA HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH FREEZING AND UP. THE NEW 06Z GFS HAS A TAIL OF PRECIP DEVELOPING SPOKE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS QPF ALONG I-20 AROUND SUNSET.
Upper trough axis was entering the southern High Plains early this morning with upstream cloud tops cooling, but snowfall was steadily ending from north to south, along and south of Interstate 70 at 08Z as winds from 2k to 9k feet veer and increase, bringing drier air in. This veered wind will bring in moderately warmer low-level air for a noticeably warmer day in the west, though stayed closer to the cooler NAM MOS values with some cloud, lighter winds, and recent snow. Models are in good agreement with winds around 850mb veering ahead of a cold front overnight for anywhere from minor to strong frontogenesis to occur, depending on the model.
327 AM PST MON FEB 16 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through much of the week.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. AND SOUTHWEST IN COLDER AIR THERE WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW SOUTHERLY 7-12 KNOTS. WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS. TEXARKANA HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH FREEZING AND UP. THE NEW 06Z GFS HAS A TAIL OF PRECIP DEVELOPING SPOKE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS QPF ALONG I-20 AROUND SUNSET.
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO LLANO TO KILLEEN LINE WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FREEZING TUESDAY AT SUNRISE IN SOME SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARDS QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS TO CORSICANA TO BROWNWOOD.
AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY SHOULD SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOST OF TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OVER THESE AREAS.
413 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2015 A strong cold front continues to move south across the area and is just about to make it to the Rio Grande. Much colder air (more so than models have indicated) has filled in behind the front with most of the Permian Basin and SE NM below freezing. Some of the precip has switched over to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle across the central and northern Permian Basin.
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT CHA. TYS SHOULD SEE A BIG MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THE PREDOMINANT TYPE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
The exception is there will be patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in freezing fog over central Montana until mid-morning.
1010 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH NO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. TUCKER COUNTY WV IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW RATIOS PROGGED. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD THIS LATE THIS AFTN.
WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE, RIDGES AT OR ABOVE THE INVERSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE WIND, REMAIN UNUSUALLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S. FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS CURRENTLY 17F AT 6725 FEET IN THE MEDICINE LAKE BOWL AND 51F ON GREY BUTTE RIDGE AT 8000 FEET ON A SUBRIDGE OF MOUNT SHASTA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING WEST OF THE COAST THIS MORNING AN EASTTO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ABOUT 12 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE REGIME TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S AND SOME EAST WINDS ON THE RIDGES SHOULD AGAIN MIX DOWN INTO LEEWARD VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WITH BREEZY WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
TEXARKANA HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH FREEZING AND UP. THE NEW 06Z GFS HAS A TAIL OF PRECIP DEVELOPING SPOKE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS QPF ALONG I-20 AROUND SUNSET.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BRINGING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
940 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALSO CONTINUES OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY OF AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
/12Z TAF UPDATE/ STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED NEAR A LAKE AMISTAD TO AUSTIN LINE AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z. STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO LLANO TO KILLEEN LINE WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FREEZING TUESDAY AT SUNRISE IN SOME SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
938 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
544 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
550 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 A VERTICALLY STACKED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE GOING FORWARD TODAY. SREF AND NAMDNG5 PROBABILITIES FOR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN THREE HOURS INCREASE INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
925 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 HAVE PUT FLURRIES IN FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH WHAT ACTUALLY IS VERY FINE SNOW GRAINS FALLING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO THE LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE IN THE FAR WEST AS WEAK UPPER SUPPORT PASSES BY BUT THAT WOULD NOT BE MUCH EITHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE ONLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES COOLER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IT COULD BE A WARM START BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON PREVENTING HIGHS FROM REACHING THE LEVELS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE WEEK OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO START UP AGAIN PUSHING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE VERY END OF THE MONTH HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AND MODEL SKILL AT THIS TIME RANGE LOW.
632 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ADK THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT.
243 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
356 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION TO JUST NORTH OF CROCKETT. WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED IN A LINE FROM KINGWOOD TO EAGLE LAKE. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ALONG THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO HOUSTON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS TOO.
THIS PCPN WAS ALREADY AHEAD OF AND GREATER THAN FORECAST AND SUPPORTED THE HIGHER POPS OF THE MET GUIDANCE VS MAV GUIDANCE.
BUT A CLEAR SLOT UPSTREAM OF THE METROPLEX MAY SCATTER THE LOW DECK THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG. SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
WITH THE LEADING SFC TROF OVR NWRN AR AND THE ACTUAL CDFNT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND JUST TO THE NW OF AR. THE LOW PRES SYS AND CDFNT WL CONT TO TRACK EWD THIS AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL THEN BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE DESERTS.
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES.
/ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE- SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG. SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND 17Z.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH ENDED UP BEING COOLER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE INDICATED. SO TENDED TO GO A LITTLE UNDER THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
With this, thinking 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall may be possible tonight, with the highest amounts being across the northern third of the CWA, or where the warning is located at. Southeast counties may get a little warmer given the lack of snow down there. Precip type for all systems looks to be mainly snow, except for Wed afternoon in the southeast, where temps should warm enough above freezing that precip-type could be a mix of rain and snow or just rain all rain around Lawrenceville. Then a warming trend will be see for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with temps rising to above freezing over most of the area. As low pressure moves through central Illinois early this afternoon, southeast winds will be trending more northeast to north.
43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SURFACE OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT.
Snow intensity is still expected to increase this evening with the approach of the upper level jet stream, mainly for the higher terrain.
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 /18Z TAFS/ Cold front will move through KSOA and KJCT along the I-10 corridor just after TAF issuance at 18Z. All sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/ The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area this morning. As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
NUMEROUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE AND TRENDS WERE SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GOING TO BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
1133 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO. WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT. SO I LOWERED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
236 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN TEXAS. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IF ROAD TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE ROADWAYS AND AIR TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CULPRITS FOR BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT. AND THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED.
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE HIGHEST PRECIP COVERAGE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW NORMAL.
Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs. Light snow will develop late tonight with a weak warm frontal boundary generally along a line from east of KCTB to west of KLWT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING APPROACHES WITH A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATED THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING INTO THE GRAND FLATS IN EAST CENTRAL UT. AS THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO WESTERN MEXICO.
1109 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
119 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUNDAY MORNING: MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE AS WE COME UNDER BETTER WAA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND STRONG SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVERNIGHT HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AND WE ARE STARTING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST.
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS BY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LEE TROFING WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR AS WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 37 39 24 / 90 100 40 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 37 38 23 / 80 100 60 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 35 36 23 / 80 100 40 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 38 39 18 / 60 100 70 10 TN.
313 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 BLUSTERY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE CONCOMITANT COLD FRONT AND STRONG NW WINDS ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
347 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 (Tonight and Monday) Post-frontal stratus was slow to dissipate this afternoon, and highs were a couple degrees cooler than expected. (Monday night through Sunday) Mainly a dry forecast this week with a couple of weak cold fronts affecting the area.
A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS. /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/ A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA.
356 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY AND INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING.
PACIFIC TROUGH HAS COME ONSHORE IN OREGON AND LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR CWA LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AFTER A BREAK MONDAY MORNING A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
451 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER QUEBEC THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT. ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS CONSIDERING THE MUCH WARMER SST VALUES.
FOR NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.