Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and tomorrow along with cooler temperatures. The low will track farther to the northeast on Wednesday which could shift the focus of precipitation. Outside of the risk for convection, a noticeable cooling trend will start today as the low moves toward our region.
Brief periods of heavy rainfall will also remain possible into the early morning hrs, given the close proximity of the associated low pressure system. Cooler than normal weather will continue into the middle of this week.
328 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Under a ridge axis building into the forecast area, today will bring one last push of hot summer like weather. High temperatures will be in the vicinity of record values, ranging from the lower 80s in west central MN to near or just above 90 in parts of northwest MN, along the Red River Valley, and eastern ND. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, generally in the 80s. Still considerably warmer than normal, but a bit drier air in the northern valley and Devils Lake basin areas should bring a bit of relief compared to Tuesday. 500 mb trough develops over western Canada and into the northern Rockies putting our area in southwest flow aloft for the first time in a very long time.
the only ones of immediate interest to the fcst here are the ridge/subtropical high over the Rockies and a shear-induced barotropic vort max over WY. That means the longwave trof currently over the NE Pac will move into the Wrn USA Wed. forcing the trof to dig and a low to form in vicinity of ID/UT/NV by Fri. This will draw the cut-off low (currently off CA) northward and weaken it. This low is fcst to lift NE into the Canadian Prairies this weekend. The Wrn ridge moves in Thu. Temps will be warmer than normal.
Weak high pressure will build into the area late this week into the weekend. Today: TD Irma was in the process of becoming embedded within a large upper low and this was occurring well to west over the southeast states across the Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley. A bit warmer right along the coast thanks to somewhat more favorable sounding profiles and potential insolation, readings should touch the mid 80s. Weak upper ridging over our area Wed through Fri will yield warming temperatures and retain mid/upper 60s dewpoints.
Surface winds have diminished across our region, and are mostly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph on the southwestern periphery of the low. Highs today are expected to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s over central and southern areas where more sun is expected, but may struggle to reach the lower to mid 70s over northern and northwestern areas where more cloud cover is anticipated.
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Continued warm and dry conditions will persist for the next few days as the region remains under an upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners region into the Northern Plains. This ridge will prevent remnants of Irma from spreading westward into the forecast area but a few high clouds may rotate into our far southeastern counties this morning. Under the upper-level ridge, continued southerly low level flow will keep temperatures above seasonal normals with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with a few locations hitting the lower 90s over the next few days. A strong cold front is forecast to drop into the region this weekend ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
222 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday night.
108 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will bring fair and mild weather through Tuesday as it moves across our area towards the mid Atlantic coast.
143 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 After a cool start to the day with valley fog, high pressure will keep things dry today with temperatures surging into the mid 70s to lower 80s for highs.
345 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners and running south into Mexico, buttressed to the west by a closed low off the CA coast. Over the next few days, the west coast trough will begin muscling into SoCal, breaking down the upper ridge. However, during that process, the ridge will move SE into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, increasing thicknesses over the region for (likely) one last bout of triple digit weather.
/Issued 1255 PM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017/ Slow moving low pressure over California combined with above normal moisture will produce good chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through Wednesday.
214 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A weak upper level low is seen early this morning on GOES 16 WV imagery over central Wyoming. The persistent large scale upper ridge in place over the Rockies will begin to flatten by Wednesday as a robust upper trough impinges on the Pacific NW. Heights aloft will fall and strengthening WSW flow will promote the development of lee troughing over eastern WY and western NE Wednesday afternoon.
Main weather producers over the period will be an upper low situated off the California coast, and a deep Pacific trough around 140W. The upper low will begin to fill and lift across NV/UT Wednesday night as the Pacific trough advances towards the PAC NW.
Should be enough snow and wind for a low end advisory over the higher peaks (zones 58/60), where a 4-8 inch storm total will be possible by late afternoon. Despite some weak mid level cold advection, max temps Fri afternoon will be much warmer under deep mixing, as bulk of surface cold air lurks just NE of the area until evening.
An upper level trough is currently pushing through the the area. Lows tonight will fall into the lower teens again with wind chills around zero.
1109 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Our northern stream upper trough will continue to move eastward tonight. At the surface, arctic high pressure will dominate the northern plains with decreasing winds this evening, becoming rather light overnight. The low level warm air advection and upper level PV are virtually gone.
Friday: A potent upper low moving ashore the PAC NW at 21Z (per WV imagery), is progged to de-amplify as it progresses southeast across the Intermountain West /northern Rockies/ tonight and the central Rockies /High Plains/ during the day Friday. The aforementioned upper low should be sampled increasingly well as it progresses inland along the WA/OR coast this evening, and if 00Z guidance persists in indicating light precipitation during the day Friday, precip chances will need to be increased. A ridge over the Eastern Pacific starts to amplify and moves over the western US by the end of the weekend.
The resulting meridional flow behind the cold front has induced a strong northerly wind overnight with temperatures dropping into the single digits early this morning, ultimately resulting in a temperature swing of up to 40 degrees for many sites across the region in the past 24 hours. The strong meridional flow across the Plains will persist into the beginning of the weekend as a ridge amplifies along the West Coast.
Upper level trough is moving east out of Texas into Louisiana helping to push a secondary surge of cold air and strong and gusty northwest winds. Upper level trough axis should swing through on early Friday, and with this, skies will clear with VFR conditions at KBPT/KLCH/KAEX by 12/15Z and KLFT/KARA by 12/18Z. /issued 424 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/ A line of rain and thunderstorms is currently extending across SE Texas ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the region through this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase with the passage of the cold front. Surface observations across S/C Texas and Oklahoma are indicating sustained winds around 20-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH behind the cold front.
Cold high pressure settles into the region, leaving us with sunshine and colder than normal temperatures.
For the next three or four days Oklahoma's weather will be most influenced by a persistent low pressure from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes.
/issued 347 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018/ Scattered showers that developed earlier this afternoon will begin to diminish tonight as the upper level low continues to move towards the northeast away from the region. Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a mid level trough moving across the eastern half of the country tonight and Friday. This combined with high pressure over the western Atlantic will allow for an increase of moisture to move into the area on Friday. Due to the increase in moisture, the chances of showers will increase during the day on Friday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest computer model guidance show this cold front moving through the area on Friday night.
341 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 Arctic high pressure is moving into the upper midwest with clearing skies and brisk northwest winds. Northwest flow will continue with arctic high pressure with a disturbance bringing chances of light snow this weekend.
305 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 Deep upper trough was edging toward the Mississippi River early this morning. Surface obs and radar mosaics continue to indicate some sleet mixing in with the snow at times, though the freezing rain reports have been diminishing some. This trend will continue through sunrise, then the precipitation will start to get pushed east as the trough approaches.
342 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 A cold front is quickly approaching from the west, and will have a significant impact on sensible weather conditions today. Forecast soundings indicate very strong cold advection at 925mb beneath an above freezing layer around 850mb which will be warm enough to melt anything falling from above. Additionally, the potential for precip generated from synoptic lift above 850mb is rather questionable due to a weak deformation zone associated with the open-wave trough. In the low-levels, steep lapse rates may produce enough lift for light precip which could fall in the form freezing drizzle, small ice pellets, or flurries with 925mb temperatures of -5C to -10C.
The dry slot cut off the ice introduction layer leading to some freezing drizzle. However, this was offset by the arctic air surging in at the low levels with saturation in the dendritic layer keeping light snow more common as far as precipitation type. Models have continued the trend of this trough losing its forcing as it nears Iowa and therefore will keep the forecast dry during the day Friday. /Friday night through Thursday/ A couple systems to impact Iowa over the weekend and persistent cold are the highlights for the forecast period. The combined systems mentioned previously will though upper trough across the Mississippi Valley and bring cold advection to Iowa.
Cold front as of 9 pm this evening has just passed through Paducah, KY and is moving just a little faster than previous models and the previous forecast. -SHRA will become a mix of freezing rain/sleet with time then eventually light snow before precip ends later today.
This will be accompanied by weak isentropic upglide and low pressure deficits in the 290K and 295K surfaces. The layer from 650mb-800mb is forecast to be saturated, although limited by a layer of -7 to -10C temperatures in the lower half of the saturated layer.
201 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018 High pressure will build over the western U. Midlevel height rises will accelerate in association with an amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast in the wake of this upper disturbance.
1051 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 The cold front is well through the forecast area as of early this afternoon, with temperatures steadily falling into the teens and 20s. In these areas, a combination of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and flash freezing have resulted in hazardous conditions, especially on untreated roadways and walkways. Further to the east, light scattered wintry mix precipitation in the form of sleet, freezing drizzle, and snow flurries will continue through late-afternoon before shifting to the east. Impacts from this appear to be somewhat limited, in part to the later arrival of sub-freezing air and warm road temperatures in the 30s, timed with the earlier moderate precipitation.
Gust northwest winds in the higher elevations ranging from 15 to 25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH at times is expected to bring blowing snow as well. Moisture decreases Friday night as the ridge to the west of the forecast area builds.
305 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 Surface observations/radar confirm some lingering flurries across northwest AR and this activity will end early this morning as the mid-level trof axis shifts east.
405 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 Under variably cloudy skies and light southeast winds, temperatures are holding in the lower 70s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, our region lies on the western periphery of a western Atlantic ridge with an elongated from extending from the Great Lakes, southward into the Tennessee valley and into the south central Gulf of Mexico. A fairly deep mid latitude trough reaching into south central Gulf of Mexico today will translate eastward and slowly lift northward tonight, leaving a broad trough over a good portion of the eastern United States, Gulf of Mexico and most of the Florida peninsula.
The low pressure system to our west will track northeast today and tonight, with the associated cold front sweeping through later today/early tonight. There does appear to be a risk for some freezing rain mainly higher terrain areas early tonight before the transition to snow is complete. Accumulations of ice/snow look light, but will issue a winter weather advisory for the plateau counties given a bit more risk of freezing rain there as the precipitation transitions.
High pressure will build over California on Friday and bring dry and mild weather to the region through the Martin Luther King Jr.
1133 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 High pressure over Saskatchewan ridging into North Dakota giving clear and cold conditions. Surface ridging will build into western/central North Dakota tonight. This will be in the form of another cold front with the potential for some light snow during the afternoon followed by increasing winds during eve/night. By Wed ridging building in from the west will lift regional temps to near average values with the outlook for a further boost as the week comes to an end.
/issued 235 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/ An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with northerly winds across the region.
A high pressure circulation is centered just west of the Baja California Peninsula this morning with a ridge extending north along the U. This ridge will gradually shift east through the upcoming weekend resulting in a period of dry and unseasonably warm weather.
Cold front has entered our far NW counties from around Pinckneyville IL to Greenville MO. Having said that, the latest RAP, HRRR, with NAM incorporation as well, show about 2 hours of freezing rain (glaze), perhaps 3 tops, then transitioning quickly to sleet. CN Nice new model and collaborative consensus incorporates a faster incoming speed of the freezing airmass at the surface.
Cold high pressure will build into western Kansas tonight.
354 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 (Today and Tonight) Temperatures have cooled into the 20s tonight across most of the area behind the cold front that moved through yesterday, with isolated locations in the teens.
This will help to erode the cold airmass that arrived yesterday across the Caprock where highs should climb into the low 60s while the Rolling Plains will hang on to the cold airmass a bit longer and remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Still see light freezing rain occurring in eastern IL and now moving into southeast IL after the front has moved through. Front has pushed through LWV this hour and below freezing air is not far behind. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a sharp cold front between the Illinois River and the I-55 corridor. With temperatures rapidly falling late this afternoon and evening, a period of very light freezing rain will be likely. The boundary is expected to slow its eastward progress late tonight, resulting in a more prolonged episode of freezing precip along/southeast of the I-57 corridor.
1134 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Early this afternoon, the cold front that brought the steep drop in temps this morning has cleared the area to the east. As the upper trough axis swings through this evening and tonight, skies will gradually clear from the west. Northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend while at the surface strong high pressure drops southeastward from the northern plains.
Friday: A potent upper low moving ashore the PAC NW at 21Z (per WV imagery), is progged to de-amplify as it progresses southeast across the Intermountain West /northern Rockies/ tonight and the central Rockies /High Plains/ during the day Friday. The aforementioned upper low should be sampled increasingly well as it progresses inland along the WA/OR coast this evening, and if 00Z guidance persists in indicating light precipitation during the day Friday, precip chances will need to be increased.
Patchy -zl accompanied passage of low level trof over eastern CWA overnight. Trof will be exiting far southeast in next several hours so -zl should end. Scattered flurries however will continue into the early morning as low level cold air advection and lingering rh along with lingering mid-level trof affect the area.
Across the southwest with cloud cover and occasional light snow, lows will be warmer in the -8 to-15 range.
345 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 WV imagery shows a deep upper-lvl trough moving thru the MS Valley, leaving the wrn CONUS under NW flow aloft. This warmup will be brief, however, as a cold front backdoors the region overnight, taking temps Sat afternoon to below-normal, especially NE zones.
/ISSUED 733 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/ Cold front has blasted through the area and temperatures were falling rapidly.
Dry and mild weather will continue this week as the mean upper ridge remains along the West Coast. The ridge will weaken somewhat through mid-week as a series of weather systems pass to the north.
601 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Low pressure near the coast will move northeastward and farther away from the forecast area today, and rain will taper off from west to east.
/ISSUED 442 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ High pressure over TX being replaced by incoming colder airmass. At midnight the associated cold front had just passed through Central Oklahoma. Temperatures should struggle a little this afternoon given the CAA reaching on the lower to mid 60s. ) Cooler night on tap with colder/drier air in place over the region and some areas may even see winds decouple entirely which would allow temperatures to dip even lower than current forecast.
527 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Cooler temperatures are expected today. An approaching upper trough will bring cold temperatures, as well as snow tonight and into Tuesday, with mainly a light accumulation.
1058 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Skies are mostly sunny this morning ahead of upper level trough moving into the Tennessee Valley. Amounts will be enhanced in the higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee.
442 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 High pressure over TX being replaced by incoming colder airmass. At midnight the associated cold front had just passed through Central Oklahoma. Temperatures should struggle a little this afternoon given the CAA reaching on the lower to mid 60s. ) Cooler night on tap with colder/drier air in place over the region and some areas may even see winds decouple entirely which would allow temperatures to dip even lower than current forecast.
552 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure extending from the upper Mississippi valley south into the Ozarks. High pressure was present over California with a ridge extending north into British Columbia. This was in the vicinity of an elevated warm front which extended across the western third of the forecast area. The before mentioned elevated warm front, will track slowly east today across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. The warm front will track east, approaching the Missouri river by 12z Tuesday. Ridging aloft will persist along the west coast the next several days, with northwest flow aloft across our region on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Northerly winds currently around 6 KT will strengthen to around 12-14 KT with gusts to 20 KT late this morning behind the cold frontal passage. /issued 400 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ A dry cold front continues to work its way south though the area this morning delineated by the roughly 10 degree temperature difference noted between the Lake Charles airport and DeQuincy observing stations. Temperatures this afternoon will still manage to make it into the low to mid 60's beneath a clear sky before efficient radiational cooling conditions allow them to drop quickly after sunset into the mid to upper 30s (about 5 degrees cooler than we're seeing this morning).
523 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Northwest winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts across area terminals today as high pressure rebuilds across the region. Cold front will move through our region today, bringing some gusty nwly winds. Wind speeds will gradually decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes this aftn, and high pressure builds in over the region.
650 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will move slowly out to sea this morning and into the afternoon. A strong upper level trough will swing through the region overnight, shifting off the coast Tuesday. Chilly high pressure will build in behind the trough for mid-week. Today: Back-edge of the rain shield, which lines up well with the h8 trough/moisture convergence axis, has just pushed east of the Triad, and will continue to progress east across the remainder of the forecast area by late morning. While the measurable rain chances drop off rapidly thereafter, intermittent/periods of drizzle will linger well into the afternoon as central NC remains in a region of broad significant synoptic scale height falls/lift, in advance of the amplifying trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic region.
826 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Low pressure near the coast will move northeastward and farther away from the forecast area today.
Meanwhile, the synoptic pattern remains pretty much unchanged with a strong upper ridge holding firm over California. However, a couple factors may result in a slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday's balmy readings. The system approaching the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move inland well to our north tonight and weaken the ridge over California slightly by Tuesday.
BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with center of an arctic air mass over northern Baffin Island and large trough extending south through Ontario the Great lakes and the Mississippi Valley and second trough pushes southwest into the Yukon Territory and the Gulf of Alaska where arctic air give way to a pacific airmass. In between these two large troughs is a ridge over California running north into southern British Columbia. Today through Tuesday: Ridge to the west will be progressive and move through eastern Montana reaching peak Tuesday before exiting. During this time expect rising temperatures with above freezing conditions for Tuesday itself.
1001 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Developing low pressure slides northeast off the Carolina coast today, pushing farther offshore tonight. A trough of low pressure will cross the area Tuesday, before Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period. Steadiest rainfall and deepest moisture will move offshore as the center of the low starts to pull away to the ne. In its wake, copious amts of low level moisture combined with an upr lvl systm will keep the light rain/dizzle going through the afternoon with the high res data sugesting this trend continues into the evening hours before tapering off and ending west to east by 06Z. Clearing out and much colder Tues night as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west.