Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid and upper level high pressure ridging builds tonight through Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate that mid and upper levels will be even drier over the area on Sunday as the ridge builds, and the associated strong subsidence should maintain the hot and mostly dry conditions across the region. At the surface, a weak trof/frontal boundary that has been just south of the area will drift north and be lingering over the interior southeast states by Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight expected to be in the low to mid 70s over the interior and mid 70s to near 80 at the coast.
Will low stratus stick around and keep it cooler? Where will the front end up. Feel that much of the area will be 70s to low 80s, but northern Kansas sections could be cooler if the front shifts far enough south.
202 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure will build in behind a weak cold front today, bringing slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. The high will continue to drop into the region tonight, but scattered clouds will affect the area through the night. Highs in Sunday will range from the lower 70s in the far northwest to near 80 in nrn KY.
251 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 An upper ridge pushes eastward over the area tonight as a dry front slowly makes its way into central GA. no convection has developed near the frontal boundary but have left the low pops in across central for the remainder of the afternoon. The upper ridge flattens on Sunday with the surface front lingering across portions of central GA.
High pressure aloft will move east across Utah today. An upper level trough will follow the high pressure on Sunday. This trough will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to mainly the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Temperatures this morning are running cooler than this time yesterday, evidence of the departing weather feature moving to the east. This feature will be the first in a series of colder troughs arriving through mid week. The trough will tilt negatively as it treks through the Great Basin Sunday and further tighten a pressure gradient across southwest Utah.
The mid level clouds are associated with vorticity advection on the leading edge of a weak upper trough approaching. Many meso models are showing light reflectivity in the forecast for this afternoon over southern WI, but this seems overdone given the low level dry air in place.
1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Wausau to Mason City IA. The northern and eastern extent of this rain is uncertain due the dry northeast flow associated with the high pressure area located over the Great Lakes.
An area of low pressure is situated between KPIR and KPHP where partly sunny skies has allowed temps to warm into the upper 70s to the low 80s.
We are already near the southern edge of the dry air mass, so it will not take much of a southerly wind component through the low-mid levels to bring a more typically moist air mass back north across the Keys.
152 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure today and Sunday.
A cold front will move through later in the week. A secondary cold front, brining a reinforcing dose of drier air, will drift in this evening and then stall out toward central Indiana. Forecast soundings show a notable dry air wedge in the lowest third or so of the column that any rain showers will need to overcome.
/issued 443 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge will remain dominant, over West Central Texas, for the next 24 hours.
The cloudy and showery conditions Sunday should keep highs relatively cool, in the low to mid 70s, after lows around 60 tonight.
The low over northeast Montana continues to drift off to the east. Ridging will be short-lived across the area however, as the next system will quickly move into the area tomorrow evening.
On Sunday a stronger trough will move across the Great Basin early in the morning and continue across western CO in the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of the trough over western CO and northeast UT but southeast UT will receive little moisture. Surface winds will increase ahead of the trough and continue following trough passage, combining with low humidity and dry fuels to produce critical fire weather conditions.
Cooler weather will return to the area this weekend as a dry cold front passes through the northern half of California.
Overnight temperatures will only cool into the lower 70s to middle 60s as southerly winds continue. High pressure building over the southeastern CONUS will work to keep showers and storms west of the region through most of the coming work week.
Temperatures so far this afternoon have only reached the low to mid 80s (and that last sentence might not be uttered again until mid to late September). High pressure builds over the region for the first half of the week.
A weak trough axis has been able to generate some very light radar echoes, but coverage is so meager, have decided to stick with a sprinkle mention instead of isolated showers.
All in all, simply more of the same tonight and tomorrow with highs once again nearing 100 in the Brazos valley to the lower 90s along the immediate coast with maximum heat indicies in the low 100s.
1037 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019 An upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains today and tonight. Over northwestern South Dakota, conditions will be much cooler with occasional showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. Drier air will advect into the region on Sunday, with mainly dry weather expected ahead of the next deep upper trough.
Lows overnight drop into the low to mid 50s and, with the cloud cover, highs will be able to be kept around 70 degrees on Sunday.
Dry Sunday with a good deal of sun expected north and highs rebounding into the low-mid 60s.
The low-level ridge axis just to our south will lift north tonight and reach the southern end of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. An east-west ridge axis will remain across the Straits this afternoon.
245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 An active synoptic pattern is anticipated across the western part of the country through the northern tier the next several days, with the main feature being a developing/deepening trough in the west.
305 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Skies remain mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. High pressure currently centered over central Illinois will continue to track slowly east tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An inverted trough will approach the area on Sunday, however moisture will still be limited on Sunday with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze.
/issued 928 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Another hot day in South Florida with temps in the low to mid 90s with heat indices soaring into the mid 100s for much of the area. Raised the high temps for some locations by a degree or so based on current temperatures across the region and latest model guidance.
A disturbance on Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and breezy winds, but deliver drier air for a downturn in storm coverage.
Clear skies are prevalent with temperatures as of 8 PM CDT ranging from the lower 80s over portions of North Mississippi and temperatures in the upper 60s into the 70s across the remainder of the area. /issued 305 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Skies remain mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. High pressure currently centered over central Illinois will continue to track slowly east tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The mid and upper level pattern will flatten out across the Southeast as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the second week of September with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows around 70. Models continue to show surface ridging north of the cwa, keeping a weak onshore flow pattern.
/Issued 251 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ An upper ridge pushes eastward over the area tonight as a dry front slowly makes its way into central GA. no convection has developed near the frontal boundary but have left the low pops in across central for the remainder of the afternoon. The upper ridge flattens on Sunday with the surface front lingering across portions of central GA.
644 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 A westerly disturbance moving into the Srn Rockies will flatten the ridge aloft over TX and strengthen the surface gradient for Sunday. Can't rule out isolated areas of patchy fog over the far southeast part of South Central Texas around dawn Sunday morning where dewpoints are expected to range from the low to mid 70s.
632 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 The relentless upper level ridge in place is allowing for another relatively trouble free TAF period for the ArkLaTex.
Deeper moisture was in place and will interact with drier mid-level air to the west that was associated with a trough of low pressure entering California today. Ahead of this trough, a disturbance was approaching southwest Arizona early this afternoon. Otherwise, models showed the low pressure trough entering California today tracking through the central Rockies on Sunday. Latest GFS solution showed more drier than previously forecast air spreading into Arizona in association with this trough. However, since southern Arizona will be on the tail end of this low pressure trough the drying might be overdone in the GFS model.
Have had to tweak hourly and min temps a bit, as they were running a few degrees warmer than originally forecast. /Issued 251 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ An upper ridge pushes eastward over the area tonight as a dry front slowly makes its way into central GA. no convection has developed near the frontal boundary but have left the low pops in across central for the remainder of the afternoon. The upper ridge flattens on Sunday with the surface front lingering across portions of central GA.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 89 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 86 59 89 / 0 0 10 10.
839 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Weak high pressure and dry air aloft remain over the region with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures. Rather benign conditions expected through Sunday with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. and highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 90s with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm south of I-4.
The upper level low is forecast to move east/southeast along the ND/SD border, reaching the central Dakotas around midnight, then becoming a more open wave as it continues into eastern South Dakota by daybreak Sunday morning. The rain shield rotating around the upper low will continue tonight. Models show good consensus in the short term taking the upper low from northeast Montana across southwest North Dakota, into southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon.
/issued 305 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Skies remain mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. High pressure currently centered over central Illinois will continue to track slowly east tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
/issued 632 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ The relentless upper level ridge in place is allowing for another relatively trouble free TAF period for the ArkLaTex.
Quiet weather across the forecast area this evening with mainly diurnally induced cumulus clouds across the western counties in vicinity of a slowly approaching weak cold front situated from near Charlotte to Athens GA. The mid and upper level pattern will flatten out across the Southeast as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the second week of September with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows around 70. Models continue to show surface ridging north of the cwa, keeping a weak onshore flow pattern.
955 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Wx map shows weak high pressure at the sfc with stronger high pressure aloft dominating the region. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temps should fall a few more degrees to the lower/mid 70s. Currently watching mid level weak trough over the southwest Gulf of Mexico with some decent moisture associated with it.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ An active synoptic pattern is anticipated across the western part of the country through the northern tier the next several days, with the main feature being a developing/deepening trough in the west.
Lows will drop into the lower 70s for the interior to the mid 70s near the coast and upper 70s for some Treasure Coast beaches.
Cloudy skies with little chance of showers is expected tonight through Sunday morning as the low pressure system move away from the region. For Sunday afternoon, another low pressure system will quickly move from west to east, producing another round of showers.
Weak ridging also prevails aloft, with the 00Z Key West sounding measuring a PW value of only 1. Overnight into Sunday, the low level ridge will lift slowly northward across the Keys into South Florida, with winds turning from SW to S/SE in response. This will bring a bit more column moisture north into the Keys late tonight and Sunday, but model soundings show a notably dry airmass persisting in the lower to mid levels, and MOS guidance PoPs remain in the single digits for these periods.
Quiet weather with VFR conditions at all sites over the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates. The only exception is patchy fog expected again late tonight at TRI that will lead to intermittent periods of MVFR visibilities, but exact timing of the lowest visibilities is low confidence.
Upper level low pressure system was located over the northwest corner of SD. Upper low to move east southeast across SD tonight. Dry Sunday with a good deal of sun expected north and highs rebounding into the low-mid 60s.
High pressure will then take charge to keep things mainly dry and quiet the next few days.
400 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Mid/upper level ridging will setup over the southeast U.
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Analysis along with water vapor imagery shows a mid-upper level ridge remains in place over the Bahamas and Cuba with the Keys on the northern periphery. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with a few exceptions in the Lower Keys where radiational cooling has allowed for temperatures to fall into the upper 70s.
316 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Quiet weather early this morning with high pressure in control across the region. A quick recovery is expected, however, as strong subsidence from the ridge will result in a clear sky and dry conditions as temperatures soar into the low to mid 90s by this afternoon. The center of the upper-ridge will begin to shift east into the Tennessee Valley early this week as it becomes centered over Northern Alabama. With this 594 dm ridge amplifying over the area, we'll continue to see an uptick in temperatures with highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s both days.
247 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 The latter half of the weekend will remain hot and rain-free, as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across North and Central Texas despite its eastward movement towards the Southeast US. With the upper ridge located across the Southeast, low-level southerly flow will allow moisture to slowly return by mid week across the region.
234 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019 The upper trough that brought some showers to the area on Saturday evening continues to move off to the east as a transient upper ridge moves in from the west. Another upper trough will approach from the west this afternoon, crossing the forecast area tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected today, especially over western South Dakota as moist easterly upslope flow develops. There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight as the the upper trough crosses the forecast area.
142 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Quiet weather with VFR conditions next 24 hours as high pressure dominates.
The 0Z NAM indicates it will rain in our area while most of the high-res models are dry or contain just a sprinkle or two. Tonight expect some patchy fog late with lows in the lower 60s.
/issued 955 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Wx map shows weak high pressure at the sfc with stronger high pressure aloft dominating the region. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temps should fall a few more degrees to the lower/mid 70s. Currently watching mid level weak trough over the southwest Gulf of Mexico with some decent moisture associated with it.
310 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Cooler and drier air continues to slip into southeast Michigan early this morning, as surface dew pts have dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Evening water vapor satellite pics showing a well defined upper trough swinging into the Intermountain West. Shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing over central and northern NV and will track into southwest Idaho overnight as the trough pushes east.
It's these areas that will see the higher rain totals in the quarter to half inch range by noon.
345 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Should be a mostly dry ridge dominated period for the majority of the area, while a stalled front remains near the southern CWA.
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A few showers will be possible today ahead of an advancing warm front.
Elsewhere above normal temperatures will continue with highs reaching the low 90s in many areas.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with a surface front draped across central GA/AL.
306 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 We have entered into the transition to a period of higher thunderstorm chances and seasonally warm temperatures as upper level high pressure has been broken down by a short wave trough moving across the northern Plains and shifted eastward by a fairly amplified short wave trough that has moved over the West Coast.
327 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures. Precipitable water values will be a little higher today than yesterday with the highest values east. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week.
Precipitable water values will be a little higher today than yesterday with the highest values east. The mid and upper level pattern will flatten out across the Southeast as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the second week of September with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows around 70. Models continue to show surface ridging north of the cwa, keeping a weak onshore flow pattern.
255 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Mid-level water vapor shows a rich plume of moisture from nrn MX extending newd into e-ne NM, which was located within a weakness in the ridge aloft. Said moist axis will hang around through Thur at least and accordingly so PoPs will remain through Fri, warmer/drier Sat-Sun.
Clear skies early this morning as high pressure has moved into the Tennessee Valley from the northwest. Upper level ridging strengthens over the southeast today with temperatures several degrees above normal. Elsewhere highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 a couple degrees above Saturday at the lower elevations.
524 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 High pressure builds over the region today then slides to the east tonight. A cold front will cross the region Saturday.
With broad high pressure continuing to be centered over the Four Corners, moisture will circulate around the within the ridge causing a gradual increase in the afternoon and evening storms.
1023 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as weak low pressure crosses the region.
1052 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a trough that stretches from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, there is an inverted trough located just to the west of the Cumberland Plateau. Overall, looking at weak synoptic forcing and expect convective initiation will take place first over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians over the next couple of hours with scattered coverage in the valley later this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 71 88 71 / 40 20 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 86 69 / 50 30 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 69 87 70 / 40 30 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 65 84 65 / 50 20 50 30.
An inverted trof over the ern GOMEx is combining with the wrn flank of the Atlc ridge to generate a brisk S/SE flow acrs the FL Peninsula, tapping an airmass with H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 85-90pct. An inverted trof over the ern GOMex will combine with the wrn flank of the Bermuda ridge to generate a moderate to freeze breeze over the lcl Atlc waters.
A stationary front will remain north of the area today in association with an upper level trough. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover, and will mainly be in the upper 80s. Upper level trough will remain west of the area and a frontal boundary will remain stalled to our north and west.
633 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 A trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Mexico northeast to southeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania today. The trough will slowly shift east and dissipate tonight as a high pressure ridge builds east into the region.
This trend has been reflected in the lowering of expected precipitation accumulations through the morning hours.
An upper-level trough will continue to move into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia today. An associated weak cold front will also approach the North Coast today. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a ridge building into the region from the southwest this weekend.
A trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Mexico northeast to southeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania today. The trough will slowly shift east and dissipate tonight as a high pressure ridge builds east into the region.
643 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites during this fcst period. /Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ An upper level high pressure system at H2 is still lingering over the southwest mainly over New Mexico. This upper high pressure system will slowly build eastward over the combined Panhandles.
831 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as weak low pressure crosses the region. A broad upper-level ridge is expected to the dominate west of the Mississippi River while an upper-level trough continues to stay in place east of the Ohio River Valley. Surface dewpoints/humidity will thus increase modestly and combine with seasonably warm temperature to destabilize the local atmosphere sufficiently for scattered showers and some storms with the trough.
345 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted the center of the upper high over NM. Easterly low level flow and a moist boundary layer over the high plains was producing areas of low clouds and fog. Short range models/ensembles rebuild the upper ridge axis west of the Front Range, resulting in west to northwest flow aloft. It will be about 5 degrees warmer this afternoon with highs in the 80s lower elevations, with 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. Models/ensembles are in good agreement rebuilding the upper ridge over WY/CO Saturday.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as high pressure ridging centered over the Four Corners expands into the region.
Additional weak troughs were along the coast and also over from central FL northeastward into the FL waters. The CAP from the sounding is weak and should enable fairly rapid development of showers and storms today and have not made much change to the high rain chances today with likely chances around 60 percent over inland southeast GA to 70-90 percent over northeast FL and coast GA.
/issued 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue again today, with the upper ridge dominating. (Saturday through Friday) A chance for thunderstorms will return to the forecast beginning this weekend as a cold front pushes across the region.