Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast for the cold front that is expected to arrive late tonight is on track, with still only scattered light showers expected. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will move over the area, while the next leeward trough begins to take shape at the surface at the Rocky Mountain Front. Leeward trough ejects east tonight and Saturday and drags a cold front with it along with some brief precipitation chances. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler behind the front.
/issued 155 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022/ A large trough remains aloft over the region this afternoon while at the surface, a frontal boundary is south of Florida and high pressure is centered to our west. One other thing of note for tonight into Saturday is a reinforcing cold front that will push through the peninsula as the main trough continues to swing eastward.
644 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Regional satellite picture shows clouds at 10-15k feet arriving from the west, associated with the warm conveyor belt of a Pacific Northwest trough. At the surface, a low pressure center was over southeast Alberta, while radar returns within the warm conveyor belt were spread across southern Saskatchewan. High pressure continues progressing eastward across the state for the remainder of the day today resulting in relatively warm temperatures in the 50s, sunny skies, and light winds.
/22/ A deep layer low pressure system with a closed low near the Great Lakes region will continue to eject out of the ArkLaMiss region this afternoon into the evening. Along with this trough, a strong mid/low- level jet will also begin to move east of Mississippi into Alabama, which should decrease winds throughout the evening into the overnight. Relative humidity values are overachieving in the south, where some areas are experiencing values in the lower to middle 20% range. Winds will begin to increase again in the later morning/early afternoon as the deep layer trough exits the region. /AJ/ Ridging aloft will continue to increase across the CWA over the weekend.
303 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A deep upper level trough across much of the eastern CONUS continues to slowly meander to the east this morning. Strong CAA on the backside of the upper trough will filter in cold air from the north. As the upper trough ejects to the northeast tonight, winds subside resulting in a calm and clear night. Southerly flow brings warm and moist air back into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds. Temperatures return to near climatological norms in the low to mid 70s on Sunday.
925 PM PDT Fri Apr 8 2022 The heatwave is giving way to increasing onshore flow this evening as the ridge aloft collapses. It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow, west of the mountains, and over the deserts by Sunday.
Colder air will sink into the area and sub-freezing temperatures are likely across much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois tonight. A few sub-freezing readings may occur in our far northeast counties. As the upper ridge builds overhead on Sunday, a strong southerly wind develops and results in a significant warmup into the 70s.
The low will finally push east tonight and relinquish its hold on the midwest. Winds will diminish and high pressure will quickly settle in overnight. While we are close to our average last freeze date, it has been over a week since our last below freezing temps has been observed, and decent greening has occurred over that time. The weekend: The weekend weather looks quiet and more pleasant with ridging setting up overhead and temperatures returning to the 60s on Saturday and 70s on Sunday. Ahead of it, instability will build into the area and may be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop in the late evening as a cold front slides through. There remains differences in long range models especially with regard to timing and speed of the low early in the week.
Wet bulb zero heights under 1 kft looks to favor snow as the main ptype today, but given temperatures climbing into the lower 40s with the early April sun angle, a rain/snow mix is most probable with most activity, especially by the late afternoon. A break from precipitation chances are expected on Sunday as an upper-level ridge becomes established over the Great Lakes in the morning. After a cold morning start with low in the upper 20s to lower 30s, temperatures warm up into the low to mid 50s for a daytime high given plenty of early day sunshine.
920 PM PDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Breezy to windy conditions will continue into Saturday as a strong cold front exits the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will trend to below average by Saturday with several nights of widespread below freezing temperatures starting Sunday morning.
237 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The flow regime today becomes more zonally oriented as an upper level low across central Saskatchewan expands southward with a trough, rotating about the parent circulation, moves into the northern Rockies. With no substantive moisture recovery this morning, fuel states are expected to remain on the high volatility side with easy ignition potential. Speaking of moisture, RH will bottom out close to 5 percent areawide and with 20' winds in the low to mid 20s, this certainly continues to indicate a Red Flag Warning. Tonight, the low level jet will ramp up mainly east of I27 with near 50 KT readings though the nocturnal inversion will temper surface winds overnight.
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Windy conditions are anticipated again today with broad upper level low circulating cold air down from the Hudson Bay area. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing again across the highest elevations of NE Georgia. As high pressure finally moves back into the area, we'll anticipate winds to begin to become more Southwesterly tomorrow which will kick off a gradual warming trend back into the 70s by Sunday.
With clear skies and low dew points persisting overnight, radiative cooling will be quite effective and result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s away from the coast. They will increase again mid to late morning, but will not be nearly as strong and/or gusty as the past couple of days as a ridge of high pressure traverses the area. High pressure at the surface stretches from South Texas, across the plains, and into Manitoba, Canada. A large upper trough is dominating the eastern 2/3s of the conus. The deep northerly flow on the back side of the trough is driving the cool, dry air mass from Canada to the gulf. Tonight and into Saturday the upper trough will gradually shift east and the ridge will become overhead.
659 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) With upper-level ridging now receded towards the Four Corners area, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid- to-upper 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s with extra moisture in soils. Conditions will become drier with the trough axis from yesterday proceeding west into Texas, leaving isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in our southernmost zones.
708 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 VFR condns are expected to prevail through the fcst PD as high pressure continues to dominate the pattern.
Previous discussion of the highly conditional severe potential remains valid. Tomorrow's temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 90s across the southwest part of the state as a low level thermal ridges settles over eastern Montana.
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (This evening through Friday) Warm night expected tonight as upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across the southern Plains.
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of West Central Texas this afternoon, as an upper level disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
This activity is occurring along a weak boundary that has been enough to keep this activity going despite the lower moisture in our area versus further north. The area will continue to be on the eastern influences of the large central US upper ridge on Friday which will give us another warm day with manageable humidity levels.
The upper level jet stream will remain well north of our area and the upper level ridge will dominate our overall weather for the next several days. Cold front will make its way into the northern Plains, but will remain way too far to the north to be consequential to us. The Heat Advisory may need to be expanded for tonight's forecast if it gets any warmer. The upper ridge with the axis over the Rockies decreases in strength just a bit over the weekend and takes on a bit of a positive tilt into the northern Plains. The wind will shift to northerly behind a cold front Friday morning, but it really will not be much cooler behind the front, expect mainly northerly becoming northeasterly winds during the day on Friday.
Max temps Friday look to range from above normal NW (mainly low 90s) to cooler than normal SE (mid to upper 80s) given moisture field/precip chances.
High pressure will begin to slip eastward allowing an advancing low pressure system over the Plains to begin to impact central Illinois by morning. As the mid level trough moves through the area, scattered precip will continue through the rest of Friday night.
High pressure maintains influence while gradually exiting to the east on Friday.
Overnight lows will be near or just a tad below normal, ranging from around 50 degrees in the NW mtns to the mid 60s in the urban centers of the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure will provide a mostly sunny and seasonable Friday across Central PA. A largely static upper level pattern will remain across the CONUS and Canada with ridging anchored near the Four Corners and various rounds of energy moving east/southeast across the eastern U.
553 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 19Z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over south central South Dakota breezy southerly winds with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s to the east of the low. Breezy northwesterly winds are located to the west of the low with dewpoints in the mid-50s to the mid-60s to the west. The low level moisture, combined with diurnal heating has increased the MUCAPE to 500-1000J/KG over northeastern Wyoming and 2000-3000 over western and central South Dakota. A weak disturbance in the upper flow is currently producing some thunderstorms near the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. The upper ridge will remain in place on Friday, leading to another warm/hot day over the northern plains.
Dewpoints are lower across the Tennessee Valley with most locations in the low to mid 60s with a few upper 50 readings. Water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a positively tilted trough located just to the north and west of the area. Water vapor imagery depicts extremely dry air aloft along the western periphery of the trough stretching from Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. The atmosphere is already dry across the Tennessee Valley and dry air will continue to advect into the area as the upper trough axis shifts to the east of the area.
A weak Pacific upper trough will track northeastward through Oregon tonight and early Friday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning in the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin.
That said, with plentiful moisture and inverted mid level trof in place, cannot rule out some iso-sct pockets of shra/tstms overnight.
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A weak cold front will continue to dissipate through the end of the week in the Piedmont.
204 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Temperatures trend warmer into this weekend with widespread triple digit highs in the Valley. Ensemble guidance has continued to show high pressure sitting over the Desert Southwest gradually building further into northern California into the weekend.
745 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of an large upper level ridge over much of the western U. S with troughing over the far eastern U. This afternoon we had light winds and temperatures near seasonal averages though it was cooler near the Great Lakes where the lake breeze circulation was dominant.
The rain will move out early Friday morning with ridging and high pressure moving in.
649 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather conditions into tonight and Friday morning.
349 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A trough will remain near the area over the next few days and provide a focus for scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows dry air aloft pushing into the Upstate with general troughing over the area. With the moisture gradient in place today expect more cloudiness and higher chances for precipitation in the east leading to lower highs today with warmer conditions in the NW. General surface and upper trough across the region through the period. With upper ridge to the west and long wave trough to the north, the area appears to be in a difluent flow aloft.
The longwave trough will move further to the northeast of the area on Friday while we remain in a general weakness aloft with broad ridging remaining to our west. Highs will range from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.
Muggy conditions will remain in place, with dewpoints generally between 65 and 70 F, but high temperatures will be less than Thursday as slightly cooler air moves in aloft.
1139 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of West Central Texas this afternoon, as an upper level disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Overall it should be a nice day today with an area of high pressure over the southern Appalachians and another area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes.
159 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 07z surface analysis had weak trough from north central MT to western NE. Additional energy noted over NV/UT, which will round the upper ridge for this afternoon/tonight. CAMs suggest TSRA starts over the higher Black Hills by early afternoon, and then over the higher terrain of WY mid-afternoon.
343 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today.
Some slight compressional heating is being suggested around the front which could help to bump up the temperatures a few degrees from the highs we had on Thursday.
1014 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 19Z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over south central South Dakota breezy southerly winds with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s to the east of the low. Breezy northwesterly winds are located to the west of the low with dewpoints in the mid-50s to the mid-60s to the west. The low level moisture, combined with diurnal heating has increased the MUCAPE to 500-1000J/KG over northeastern Wyoming and 2000-3000 over western and central South Dakota. A weak disturbance in the upper flow is currently producing some thunderstorms near the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. The upper ridge will remain in place on Friday, leading to another warm/hot day over the northern plains.
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Have seen isolated high-based storms develop in northwest Iowa early this morning in response to low level jet, while mid-level wave sliding along/north of the 850mb warm front to our north triggers more robust activity well north of our area. The balance of today should be quiet and a little cooler than yesterday, though low level temperatures (excluding the excessively over-mixed GFS) still support highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
122 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of an large upper level ridge over much of the western U. S with troughing over the far eastern U. This afternoon we had light winds and temperatures near seasonal averages though it was cooler near the Great Lakes where the lake breeze circulation was dominant.
1046 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (This evening through Friday) Warm night expected tonight as upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across the southern Plains.
1201 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure maintains influence while gradually exiting to the east through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures across the area remain in the lower to mid 80s and are still expected to drop into the lower to mid 70s through the overnight hours. /33/ (This evening through Friday Night) With upper-level ridging now receded towards the Four Corners area, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid- to-upper 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s with extra moisture in soils. Conditions will become drier with the trough axis from yesterday proceeding west into Texas, leaving isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in our southernmost zones.
Initially, warm air advection downstream of a mid-level trough and the attendant low will lead to scattered showers and storms through the mid to late morning hours, which will decrease in coverage from west to east during this time.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 94 72 92 / 10 0 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 68 92 70 91 / 10 0 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 91 69 91 / 10 0 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 64 88 66 88 / 10 10 30 10 50.
349 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Active weather is expected through the short term as a series of troughs move across central Nebraska.
Central Indiana will be on the periphery of a strong upper level ridge centered over the Rockies/central High Plains during the short term, under the influence of upper level waves cresting and riding the ridge from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region.
416 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather conditions through this morning.
The Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear River including downtown Wilmington has been cancelled. Mid-level trough axis will remain west of the forecast area Friday night, and although PW will continue to be elevated (near 2"), it will start to trend down slowly.
(Today) We have mostly clear skies across the area this morning as we remain under high pressure over the Tennessee Valley.
448 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania today and tonight. High pressure and its associated dry air mass building in from the Grt Lks will provide the area with mainly sunny skies and light winds today. Mixing down ensemble mean 800mb temps of around 10C supports highs ranging from the upper 70s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid and upper 80s across the Susq Valley. A light southeasterly flow will develop Friday night and begin to draw some low-level moisture into the area, as high pressure pulls to our east. Radiational cooling and an influx of low level moisture could potentially promote late night valley fog across the Lower Susq Valley.
Upper ridging is strengthening across the area today with a drier airmass settling in. With stronger upper ridging temperatures will be a little warmer in the low 90s this afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity will diminish early/mid evening leaving mainly partly cloudy skies overnight, with lows in the low 70s.
421 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build into the region through the first half of the weekend and bring mainly dry and fair weather. High pressure and associated dry air will provide the area with mainly sunny skies today. High clouds will increase tonight ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes.
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) With upper-level ridging now receded towards the Four Corners area, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid- to-upper 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s with extra moisture in soils. Conditions will become drier with the trough axis from yesterday proceeding west into Texas, leaving isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in our southernmost zones.
/issued 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ Current temperatures at 4 AM are in the low 70s with mostly clear skies across the area.
These boundaries are moving to the southwest thanks to an inverted low level trough that is rounding the base of the subtropical ridge. This inverted trough does have a surface reflection as surface winds were east to southeast and have backed to the northeast to east. The inverted trough will continue to move westward today through Saturday. The best moisture will be on the western side of this inverted trough. As the trough enters the southeast Gulf of Mexico it will place us in an almost due south flow just above the boundary layer. This inverted trough combined with another trough located in the northern Gulf coast will act to weaken and shove the subtropical ridge to the east, temporarily.
632 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Have seen isolated high-based storms develop in northwest Iowa early this morning in response to low level jet, while mid-level wave sliding along/north of the 850mb warm front to our north triggers more robust activity well north of our area. The balance of today should be quiet and a little cooler than yesterday, though low level temperatures (excluding the excessively over-mixed GFS) still support highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
410 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Current temperatures at 4 AM are in the low 70s with mostly clear skies across the area.
Also increased cloud cover with some mid to high clouds moving in, which resulted in forecast highs trending a few degrees cooler. Early afternoon development over the higher terrain of central Montana is indicated by the convective allowing models, with activity spreading east/northeast before exiting into North Dakota late in the evening.
This ushered in some slightly cooler air aloft and weakened the marine inversion. High pressure builds slightly tonight and Saturday.
556 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build toward the region through Saturday.
639 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today.
534 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 07z surface analysis had weak trough from north central MT to western NE. Additional energy noted over NV/UT, which will round the upper ridge for this afternoon/tonight. CAMs suggest TSRA starts over the higher Black Hills by early afternoon, and then over the higher terrain of WY mid-afternoon.
1033 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania today and tonight. High pressure and its associated dry air mass building in from the Grt Lks will provide the area with mainly sunny skies and light winds today. Mixing down ensemble mean 800mb temps of around 10C supports highs ranging from the upper 70s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid and upper 80s across the Susq Valley. A light southeasterly flow will develop Friday night and begin to draw some low-level moisture into the area, as high pressure pulls to our east. Radiational cooling and an influx of low level moisture could potentially promote late night valley fog across the Lower Susq Valley.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today, but still hot.
646 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build into the region through the first half of the weekend and bring mainly dry and fair weather. High pressure and associated dry air will provide the area with mainly sunny skies today. High clouds will increase tonight ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes.
Upper-level ridging looks. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) At the start of the period, a strong upper-level ridge will still be centered over the Four Corners Region. The trailing end of an upper trough axis extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwest into Missouri, Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma will slowly move southeast.
601 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (Today) We have mostly clear skies across the area this morning as we remain under high pressure over the Tennessee Valley.