Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
949 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 At the start of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow aloft as the back part of a trough is over the CWA. Late Friday, models show the upper air flow turning more northwesterly as the trough starts to reorient itself.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure off the coast thatâs been responsible for the unusually warm temperatures regionally continues to elongate and pivot inland tonight into the weekend. The resulting switch to northeast winds near the surface, 850mb cold advection, and an increase in high cloud cover keeps high temperatures cooler on Friday compared to persistence. Still, with the axis of the upper ridge remaining overhead through most of the weekend dry and calm conditions persist.
We are looking at a new frontal system that is moving through the central plain states attm getting support from an upper level trof. This latest front is expected to drop into north Texas by this evening as another cold front will merge into this airmass. As the trof digs the system is expected to move to the coastal during the early morning hours on Saturday. There is good cold air advection with the frontal system with afternoon highs expected into the low to mid 60s most locations.
335 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Early this morning, a canadian cold front has almost progressed southward to the Continental Divide. In wake of this cold front, breezy to strong northerly winds, and a quick drop in temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees. Snow continues to develop in wake of this cold front, from a bit of a convergence zone at 700mb, and upper jet dynamics. Areas west of the Divide, should remain dry, but be cooler than yesterday. Ridging and northwest flow return behind the early weekend Canadian system.
549 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with high pressure over the region.
Residence times over any particular location will be short, but quick snow accumulations of a coating up to an inch or two (up to 3 or 4 inches in the highest elevations of the Park Range) seem reasonable. As the cold front surges southward, a similar uptick in activity will follow for the Flat Tops and the I-70 corridor from around Glenwood Springs eastward to Vail Pass by 00Z. Outside of the higher elevations, temperatures become more marginal here so impacts to roadways are likely to be less. Much colder air filters in behind the cold front tonight, leading to highs about 5-10 degrees cooler on Saturday.
530 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Stronger cold front expected to move into northwest Oklahoma around sunrise will move quickly southeast across the area today. Still expect to see mild conditions today before cooler/colder air moves into the area tonight. Colder air will filter south tonight as upper wave drops south through the high Plains into west Texas.
204 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 At the start of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow aloft as the back part of a trough is over the CWA. Late Friday, models show the upper air flow turning more northwesterly as the trough starts to reorient itself.
427 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with high pressure over the region.
513 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Precipitation chances return later today with crossing low pressure. Scattered light snow will linger Saturday but largely be finished by the afternoon with the exception of the ridges and north of I-80 where orographic lift and lake enhancement will keep light snow possible into Saturday night.
Also, LLWS will be a concern in the higher terrain of the north and west, with sustained speeds of 30 to 40 knots around FL020. Today Through Saturday Night Early this morning, cold front was located up in the plains, heading toward Arkansas, with high pressure centered south of Arkansas. The high will shift away from the region today as the frontal boundary moves into Arkansas and across the state.
This is maintaining a slightly cool post cold front air mass across the Keys. The recent cold front did not penetrate much past the Keys and the lower levels remain quite moist. This is despite very wide troughing aloft aligned all the way over Mexico with a broad southern stream jet running east northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and the far southeastern United States. Forecast - Over the next couple of days, most of the ridge will slip out and away over the North Atlantic as the next cold front begins expanding towards the Gulf coast. While surface winds remain backed, increased veering is expected to develop through the lowest layers.
/issued 428 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022/ One last mild day today, before a cold front passes through tonight, bringing colder temperatures for the weekend. Tonight's cold front will push southward, as a longwave trof over the northern plains and upper Midwest quickly deepens to encompass the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS by Saturday afternoon.
A strong cold front will reach HOB by 21Z and push through the remainder of the region after 00Z. (Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures are expected to climb well above normal today before a cold front edges into the region later this afternoon. The main push from the cold front will not occur until around sunset when gusty NE winds are expected to develop in its wake. Therefore, lows on Saturday morning are not expected to fall below freezing except across southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis mountains. A swift moving mid-lvl shrtwv trough will pass over the northern portions of the area early Saturday morning, providing a source of lift and a brief window for light precipitation. The NBM and other guidance continues to trend cooler with high temperatures Saturday afternoon and our latest forecast will reflect this.
426 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Fast northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region early this morning due to a ridge over the west coast and an upper trough extending from Hudson Bay, across Minnesota, and then into Nebraska. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient exists between low pressure currently over the Great Lakes and high pressure building southward toward the forecast area out of Canada.
229 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Strong high pressure aloft situated along the West Coast will result in clear skies and well above normal temperatures at least through the weekend.
TODAY AND SATURDAY - Cold air advection and high pressure will build across the region today. Areas of snow and rain showers will sweep across the region this morning, with a small chance for some freezing drizzle. On Saturday high pressure will center itself across the region, so expect sunny skies and decreasing winds, but cold temperatures.
As an upper level short wave trough approaches the region, southerly flow will continue to advect a warmer and more moist airmass into South Texas. The pre- frontal trough is expected to reach the northern counties by Saturday morning with the cold front sweeping through South Texas Saturday afternoon. With southerly flow continuing today, high temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid 80s across the Rio Grande and Brush Country while remaining the the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast. Temperatures tonight will remain chilly with temperatures ranging within the lower to upper 50s.
710 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Precipitation chances return later today with crossing low pressure. Mild conditions expected today with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching front associated with low pressure crossing the Great Lakes. Scattered light snow will linger Saturday but largely be finished by the afternoon with the exception of the ridges and north of I-80 where orographic lift and lake enhancement will keep light snow possible into Saturday night.
536 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Cold front moving through this morning to be followed by strong northerly winds. A strong cold front will move quickly south through the area this morning.
Today Through Saturday Night Early this morning, cold front was located up in the plains, heading toward Arkansas, with high pressure centered south of Arkansas. The high will shift away from the region today as the frontal boundary moves into Arkansas and across the state.
214 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Early this morning, a canadian cold front has almost progressed southward to the Continental Divide. In wake of this cold front, breezy to strong northerly winds, and a quick drop in temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees. Snow continues to develop in wake of this cold front, from a bit of a convergence zone at 700mb, and upper jet dynamics. Areas west of the Divide, should remain dry, but be cooler than yesterday. Ridging and northwest flow return behind the early weekend Canadian system.
641 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region into Saturday.
In contrast, the Umpqua valley is forecast to be a tad bit cooler with stratus and some fog limiting the duration of solar heating for the day. By later tonight, the thermal trough will extend up the Oregon coast into sections of Washington. It's also worth noting that when the thermal trough moves farther inland, like on Saturday, we usually see some of the warmest temperatures of an event, especially in the valleys. It also seems to be a tad bit warmer than what models always forecast.
Temperatures will turn colder behind a cold front and winds may reach close to advisory levels in some of our northern counties.
308 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Fast northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region early this morning due to a ridge over the west coast and an upper trough extending from Hudson Bay, across Minnesota, and then into Nebraska. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient exists between low pressure currently over the Great Lakes and high pressure building southward toward the forecast area out of Canada.
/Issued 317 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022/ Satellite imagery shows cirrus streaming across the southern two- thirds of the CWA this morning as an elongated piece of vorticity traverses the Southeast amid weak upper-level troughing. Broad upper-level troughing will encompass the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Saturday with a sprawling area of high pressure on its heels over the western CONUS. These features will push a cold front south and east across the Southeast through the day.
404 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Cold front nearing the northern edge of the CWA as of 09Z, and given upstream obs showing several gusts in excess of 40kt, have opted to issue a wind advisory for most of our SD/MN counties this morning. As with many of our strong cold fronts this season, will see warmest temperatures early this morning, with readings falling throughout the day as 925-850mb in the teens to 20s below zero plow southward.
920 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region into Saturday.
/Today through Saturday Night/ Slightly above normal temperatures will precede a cold front that reintroduces cooler conditions across the Ark-La-Tex through the weekend, starting tonight. Until then, afternoon maximum temperatures will reach the low-70s once again today with robust southwesterly surface winds.
Light snow is possible tonight behind the cold front. Mid level trof settles into the Great Lakes overnight.
A strong cold front will move quickly south through the area this morning.
A little warmer this morning across ECFL due to streaming cirrus overhead and some stratocu southward. Weak ridge axis remains north of the area with favorable small craft boating conditions forecast over the next 24 hours. As the trough axis shifts eastward, a N/NW flow will develop over the northern waters late.
448 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Cold Canadian high pressure sliding into the northern plains today with light overrunning snow showers occuring along the western edge of the cold air. West coast ridge rebound quickly for warming temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure will remain in control with temperatures rising quickly throughout the day.
428 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 One last mild day today, before a cold front passes through tonight, bringing colder temperatures for the weekend. Tonight's cold front will push southward, as a longwave trof over the northern plains and upper Midwest quickly deepens to encompass the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS by Saturday afternoon.
Desite sfc temps were AOA freezing from RRL south, ground temps may still be subfreezing.
1255 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 A cold front brings showers tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push through the area tonight, bringing some showers. Colder air will move in behind the front with the higher elevations turning over to snow early Saturday. The area will continue to be under attack by a second reinforcing cold front associated with a parent system originating over Canada.
With an expansive high pressure system just to our west, today will be the warmest day over the next 7 days.
Currently, strong low pressure is exiting the region while cold high pressure builds over the area from southern Canada. Later tonight as a cold front works it's way back to the east towards North Dakota, there may be a chance of light snow over far southwest ND. Overnight lows tonight will vary quite a bit, from the teens below zero under mainly clear skies and cold high pressure in the east, to the teens above zero, with increasing clouds southwest. With our cold temperatures, we have already extended the wind chill advisory to cover much of central ND east of the Highway 83 corridor, through mid morning Saturday. On Saturday, the warm front moves into central North Dakota.
105 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 A cold front brings showers tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push through the area tonight, bringing some showers. Colder air will move in behind the front with the higher elevations turning over to snow early Saturday. The area will continue to be under attack by a second reinforcing cold front associated with a parent system originating over Canada.
You'd never know that a strong cold front sits to our immediate northwest and will barge into the mid state in just a few hours.
224 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 The leading edge of a cold front pushed south through our area this morning with some gusty winds along the front that ultimately fell just short of Wind Advisory criteria. As the baroclinic arm of the upper level trough rakes southeast across our region overnight, the best surface moisture and convergence will shift west into eastern New Mexico. Surface pressure is expected to quickly increase behind the upper level trough exiting to the south and east, with skies quickly clearing by mid/late afternoon and easing surface winds after sunset.
240 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 20Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the eastern half of North America and ridging along the west coast. At the surface, a cold front has pushed into the Ozarks and central OK with dry air moving in from the north.
RMB Cold Canadian high pressure sliding into the northern plains today with light overrunning snow showers occuring along the western edge of the cold air. West coast ridge rebound quickly for warming temperatures through the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday) Gusty north winds are accompanying a cold front this afternoon, which is now moving into portions of south central OK. Cloud cover will decrease WNW to ESE throughout the day as the positively tilted mid to upper trough axis begins to exit our region.
This trough will continue to funnel weak southerly flow into our area, which will slightly increase moisture overnight into tomorrow. Just to the west of this trough, a strengthening pressure gradient is creating gusty winds throughout the ArkLaMiss region, with the highest gusts currently in the Delta, topping out at 26 mph at GWO and GLH.
A weak trough pushing south through the Rockies tonight will bring a reinforcing shot of offshore flow to the area through Saturday, though weaker than some of the previous offshore wind events we've had lately as there is very minimal upper level support.
Areas south of the boundary, however, will push into the lower 70s.
High pressure will quickly build across the area tonight into the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level trough is currently swinging through the Central Plains and is moving south. In association with it, a cold front is currently moving south through the southern Panhandle. This cold front is expected to work its way through the area this afternoon and evening. With the high pressure building in, skies will begin to clear out through the afternoon hours. Highs tomorrow will be back near normal but much cooler than the past few days only reaching into the low 50s.
Southeast winds across the Upper Keys pushed temperatures into the lower 80s this afternoon, while the lingering northerlies across the Lower Keys have held highs in the 70s.
A weak area of high pressure over the region is keeping things dry as a frontal system moves SE out of the Great Lake states tonight to the GA/TN/AL border by daybreak Sat. it ushers in a much cooler airmass across the area.
1118 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Strong northerly winds will persist this afternoon behind a cold front currently pushing south through all three terminals late this morning. A strong cold front will move quickly south through the area this morning.
253 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with high pressure over the region.
Warmer temps expected this afternoon, reaching the mid/upper 60s to near 70 at most locations.
Model soundings continue to favor a mix of stratus and fog, and guidance still indicates potential for at least locally dense fog in the Lower and Upper Snake Plain, but spares the remainder of the region.
Tonight through Saturday night Upper trough to swing south and then east across the Panhandles this evening into Saturday morning. This upper trough will bring snow to much of the forecast area after 03Z Saturday through 15Z Saturday to mainly the western and central Panhandles or along and west of the Caprock. The upper trough is then forecast to exit the Panhandles by 18Z Saturday with subsidence prevailing for the remainder of Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Isentropic lift on the higher terrain of the Caprock across the western Panhandles will help to provide lift for increased snow production tonight into Saturday morning. Temps tonight are expected to wet-bulb quickly this evening to below freezing to where the precip will be predominately snow.
While overall accumulations have been light, ~1/2", the combination of wet then freezing road conditions have created slippery conditions for much of the forecast area. This band will continue east, following the low level frontogenesis as depicted in short term, high resolution model guidance (RAP13/HRRR). A transient low level ridge comes in overnight, alleviating winds and therefore wind chill concerns.
123 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 A cold front brings showers tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push through the area tonight, bringing some showers. Colder air will move in behind the front with the higher elevations turning over to snow early Saturday.
1219 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Precipitation chance returns later today with crossing low pressure. Mild conditions continue this aftn with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching front associated with low pressure crossing the Great Lakes. Scattered light snow will linger Saturday but largely be finished by the afternoon with the exception of the ridges and north of I-80 where orographic lift and lake enhancement will keep light snow possible into Saturday night.
1136 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Cold front nearing the northern edge of the CWA as of 09Z, and given upstream obs showing several gusts in excess of 40kt, have opted to issue a wind advisory for most of our SD/MN counties this morning. As with many of our strong cold fronts this season, will see warmest temperatures early this morning, with readings falling throughout the day as 925-850mb in the teens to 20s below zero plow southward.
Fairly chilly tonight, especially approaching cntrl SD, as high pressure slides into the Upper Midwest. Here, modest pressure rises in the wake of the low coupled with a late aftn arrival in the region and 850-mb flow approaching 40 kt will likely be sufficient for a brief period of borderline advisory criteria gusts.
An area of high pressure situated off of the Mid Atlantic region was providing an at times nearly breezy conditions, with SW winds of 15-25 mph. An area of low pressure moving across southern Ontario and Quebec features a cold front extending southward from southern Lake Michigan to NE Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico. Cold high pressure of northern Canadian origins will build southward as the front drives further to the SE of the region. Generally cloudy skies are forecast as colder air from the high filters across the eastern CONUS. The true nature of the cold air will be felt, with lows cooling into the low/mid 20s.
Periods of light rain and snow showers will fall primarily across the Allegheny Mountains, while little of any precipitation falls over the Lower Susquehanna Valley through Saturday.
150 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 High pressure off the coast of the Carolinas continues to influence our weather as the airmass modifies. As we are enjoying our nice Saturday an upper level trough and associated cold front will start pushing through the southeast.
345 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue into Saturday as high pressure dominates.
1010 AM MST Fri Feb 11 2022 Fast northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region early this morning due to a ridge over the west coast and an upper trough extending from Hudson Bay, across Minnesota, and then into Nebraska. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient exists between low pressure currently over the Great Lakes and high pressure building southward toward the forecast area out of Canada.
1130 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with high pressure over the region.
Light snow is possible tonight behind the cold front. Surface temperatures overachieving based on the forecast this morning, so had to trend temperatures warmer for the day - closer towards the 75th percentile of the NBM. Mid level trof settles into the Great Lakes overnight.
1143 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Stronger cold front expected to move into northwest Oklahoma around sunrise will move quickly southeast across the area today. Still expect to see mild conditions today before cooler/colder air moves into the area tonight. Colder air will filter south tonight as upper wave drops south through the high Plains into west Texas.
Some light patches of rain/sprinkles will move in late tonight into Saturday, possibly mixed with light snow over the higher terrain. An approaching cold front will move into our area later tonight and then exit to our east and southeast Saturday. The front is moisture starved and initially the lower levels will be quite dry, so expect just some patches of light rain/sprinkles to begin moving into our northwest counties tonight as the front moves in. Colder air will be moving in aloft, and the boundary layer should cool enough across the highest terrain for some light snow to mix in.
336 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Rain continues to move through the Ohio Valley today ahead of a cold front. Behind the cold front, a colder air mass builds in for the weekend, with periods of light snow showers and flurries possible.
Cold Canadian high pressure sliding into the northern plains today with light overrunning snow showers occuring along the western edge of the cold air. West coast ridge rebound quickly for warming temperatures through the weekend.
The principal area of high pressure is currently positioned over the western Atlantic, while a weaker high is centered over the northern Gulf. Between these two features a thermal trough will develop over the Fl Peninsula this afternoon creating westerly flow over western Florida and easterly flow over eastern Florida.