Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A preliminary look at the latest NAM shows a weak upper trough moving into the area Tuesday with light and spotty precipitation arriving at the coast early Tuesday morning, then moving inland, but remaining mainly confined to the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide during the day Tuesday.
322 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Dry high pressure continues through mid week.
Skies clear on sat imagery with high pressure settling into the region. Light and somewhat variable winds under the ridge will set up for some efficient radiational cooling overnight. In the west, the winds will pick back up out of the south before dawn as the ridge axis slips just to the east. Under clear skies tonight, and with high pressure sliding over the region tonight, temperatures should be able to radiate down to around freezing - the lower 30s and upper 20s. Given the uncertainties in fog as well as temperatures only being just near freezing, will not mention freezing fog at this point in time. Temperatures will trend warmer again tomorrow, with max temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Outside of north central Wisconsin, most locales should climb above freezing and a few could hit the 40s. Wave and associated cold front expected to push through the area this evening marking leading edge of sharply colder air once again.
but with temperatures in the 20s, do have to keep an eye out for freezing fog potentially making for some patchy slick surfaces. Overnight, a fairly stout LLJ will develop ahead of a cold front. The warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front will be characterized by scant surface moisture recovery, but modest isentropic lifting. Going into the weekend, broad cyclonic flow dominates most of the CONUS as dome of high pressure reinforces in the northeast Pacific\West Coast.
1017 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 An upper trough over Pennsylvania will lift out tonight and Tuesday, as surface ridging builds in from the Great Lakes.
344 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 A cool and dry airmass remains over the area today in the wake of the recent cold front, with a broad upper level trough swinging east into the Atlantic and zonal flow setting up across Florida through the middle part of the week. At the surface, broad high pressure north of the Florida Panhandle will support light northerly flow today, keeping temperatures well below normal this afternoon. After a cool start to the morning, with areas of frost possible over the Nature Coast, afternoon temperatures are expected to top out only in the low to mid 60s.
Highs today will be well above average with some areas approaching the low 60s.
807 PM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 It will remain warm and breezy across the area this evening until a cold front pushes through the area. Behind this cold front, light snow will develop, with a few areas picking up an inch or two of snow tomorrow morning, potentially causing a few issues for the morning commute.
1052 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 An upper trough over Pennsylvania will lift out tonight and Tuesday, as surface ridging builds in from the Great Lakes.
1102 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 For tonight, the clouds will be on the increase as a warm front moves through much of the region.
An associated trough axis extends southward to the Texas panhandle. A cold Canadian air mass was moving into Montana behind a cold front associated with that system to the north. Today, continued WAA in the low levels will allow for the warmest day of the week across the eastern half of Kansas while the aforementioned cold front rapidly approaches from the north. High temperatures should warm into the low 50âs in east-central Kansas, to near 60 degrees in north-central Kansas. The strong Canadian cold front looks to arrive in north-central Kansas by late this afternoon and should be completely south of the forecast area by around midnight tonight.
Once the low clouds scatter out, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period all sites. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 46 33 53 34 / 0 0 0 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 44 30 50 30 / 10 0 0 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 21 43 30 48 29 / 10 0 0 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 39 24 48 27 / 20 0 0 40 100.
1041 PM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 The dry northwest flow aloft will continue today as general ridging remains across the western US.
1001 PM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains along an anchored baroclinic zone. Flurries and clouds may linger through Wed across the SW third before a warm front shifts back NE Thur into Fri with the next upper trough.
240 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 An upper trough over Pennsylvania will lift out tonight and Tuesday, as surface ridging builds in from the Great Lakes.
High pressure will build over the Pacific NW over the weekend.
The short term will be focused on the combination of a weak closed upper level low, and a developing wave over the Canadian Plains. The deeper low will be to the north, of which will create breezy conditions for NW portions of central Indiana as the low level pressure gradient tightens, Current expectations are for sustained winds around 15-20mph with gusts upwards of 30mph in the afternoon. Conditions will be rather similar overnight, with winds out of the west and warmer than normal temperatures.
405 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will shift to the east today, allowing temperatures to warm to near or just above normal values through Wednesday. A disturbance moving northeast from the southern plains into the Tennessee Valley will provide the next chance of precipitation late Wednesday before a cold front brings below normal temperatures back late in the work week. At the same time, a cold front will drop southeast from the Great Lakes. The cold front will be just south of our area by Wednesday evening. As cooler air moves in behind the front, ptype will transition over to snow from the northwest through the evening hours.
Weak ridging overhead early this morning with water vapor imagery showing an upper level low north of LA. This low will open up this morning and move across the state today. At the surface, dewpoints were mainly in the 30s to the lower 40s. A weak trof follow-up trof will bring a slight chance of rain/snow to the White mountains Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Low pressure propagating sewd across the Great Lakes will provide the chance for precipitation on Wednesday, with likely a frontal passage that could result in progressive precip chances of rain/snow mix as temperature will be mild, highs in the 40s. The cold front will stall south of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will develop along the stalled boundary and snow will develop generally south of I-70. Still large differences in model solutions on how far south the front will stop and the track of the developing low pressure.
For now went with highs in the low 40s to mid 50s, with coldest temperatures over portions of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. By tonight, the latest deterministic and ensembles still indicate that a trough will drop into the Upper Midwest. , dragging an associated cold front through the forecast area.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s, not quite as cool as we expected, but there are a few more hours before daybreak.
The short term will be focused on the combination of a weak closed upper level low, and a developing wave over the Canadian Plains. The deeper low will be to the north, of which will create breezy conditions for NW portions of central Indiana as the low level pressure gradient tightens, Current expectations are for sustained winds around 15-20mph with gusts upwards of 30mph in the afternoon. Conditions will be rather similar overnight, with winds out of the west and warmer than normal temperatures. Wednesday's weather will be much more volatile as the northern low pressure system's frontal boundary interacts with the secondary low to the SW. However, the warm conveyor belt associated with the southern low will approach from the south Wednesday evening, saturating the lower levels. The other noteworthy event Wednesday night will be plummeting temperatures behind the cold front.
Highs today will be well above average with some areas approaching the low 60s. Behind the cold front much colder air will filter in returning us to below normal temperatures on Wednesday.
The large scale weather pattern begins to change tonight: In the upper atmosphere, northwest flow continues, but instead of weak ridging, a trough focused to the northeast will start to bring modest lift to the northern and central portions of the state. Cloud cover will be more widespread than in previous days, given increasing moisture in the low and mid-levels. Accumulations generally look to remain well under 1 inch for the lower elevations.
Today Through Wednesday Night Current surface map shows high pressure centered over MS/LA, with weak southerly flow developing over the area. Low level moisture will increase today and tonight, as high pressure shift further eastward and low and mid-level flow become more southwesterly.
Low level moisture return will be delayed through the afternoon though areas with the lowest humidities and strongest winds do not overlap which will limit fire weather concerns to primarily areas west of Highway 75.
Current Road reports are indicating just wet to scattered wet conditions with temperatures generally in the mid and upper 30s in the Flathead/Mission valley and upper 20s in the Lower valleys along Highway 200 and US2 in Northwest Montana. Scattered light showers will remain over the region Wednesday under a weak and brief ridge of high pressure.
A strong Arctic cold front will push through tomorrow, bringing rain and another chance for winter weather along with it. On the back side of the low pressure system, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and even freezing drizzle is possible across our northern CWA tomorrow night. For areas along the AR/MO and KY/TN borders, it looks like the precip would start out as freezing rain around sunset, quickly transition to sleet and/or snow for a few hours, and then freezing drizzle. This winter weather does not look significant for the Mid-South, but patchy freezing drizzle could lead to light ice accretions.
In the meantime, today will be breezy and mild on the back side of high pressure that will be pushing off to the Southeast Coast. Rain is expected to develop along and behind the cold front during the day as a mid level trof moves east into the Southern Plains. With temperatures falling fairly quickly to below freezing, we could even end up with some travel impacts, especially on elevated roadways.
Winds across the area are out of the northeast as ridging over the southeastern states is the controlling element in our synoptic flow.
Widespread freezing fog developing and noted per surface observations and regional satellite imagery across mid state region as these early morning hours have progressed. Thus issued a dense freezing fog advisory for entire mid state region through 18/15Z (10 AM CST). Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Bedford- Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.
This, along with partly to mostly sunny skies today, will result in warmer temperatures across the region. Highs today will range from the mid 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s in the southwest.
Dewpoints will push back into at least the low 40s for all counties by late morning, but dry air above the boundary layer will dry out the western counties with early evening dew points in the mid to upper 30s. A higher floor of min temps tonight should ensure the warming trend continues for Wednesday, but the extra moisture in the region should slow down the midday rates of warming for highs no more than a couple degrees warmer than those expected today. An exception might be for the southern Edwards Plateau will see the beginnings of a cold front arrive with much less cloud coverage than is expected for the remainder of the forecast area.
453 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Primary forecast concern is the Arctic cold front moving through later today, bringing much colder temperatures, bitterly cold wind chills, some blowing/drifting snow, and the potential for freezing of meltwater on roads and other surfaces. The cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon into early evening, with gusty northwest winds and plummeting temperatures. Temperatures will warm above freezing across the entire area today (except perhaps the far northwest where it will top out around freezing) before temperatures fall behind the front.
Blustery northwest winds will continue through Wednesday afternoon as the center of the Arctic high pressure area builds in from the northwest. Upper flow aloft at the start of the period features a trough over the eastern CONUS, extending from the Western Lakes down towards the 4 Corners region. Meanwhile at the surface a broad +1040mb high pressure will be overhead, with 925mb temperatures right around -20C.
Warmer weather will start off the forecast period, with bitter cold quickly following. A warm front is progged to push through early today, bringing southwesterly flow ahead of a system approaching. Some may even reach the low 40s, especially those in our south. A not so fun fact is that the high temperature for Wednesday will likely happen at midnight for most, as temperatures will only continue to fall through the day.
Low pressure will move inland over Southern California this morning, although shower activity is expected to move east of the region today.
Fog will be the primary concern through the forecast time, as a layer of fog over the lower Basin spreads into adjacent valleys early this morning.
921 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will shift to the east today, allowing temperatures to warm to near or just above normal values through Wednesday. A disturbance moving northeast from the southern plains into the Tennessee Valley will provide the next chance of precipitation late Wednesday before a cold front brings below normal temperatures back late in the work week. Morning update wanted to bump temps up in the southwest as the low stratus exits and should stay out of the picture for the remainder of the day. At the same time, a cold front will drop southeast from the Great Lakes. The cold front will be just south of our area by Wednesday evening. As cooler air moves in behind the front, ptype will transition over to snow from the northwest through the evening hours.
437 AM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 Cold front dropping through the region early this morning, with increasing north to northwest winds and falling temperatures.
An arctic cold front moves through the area tonight into Wednesday, bringing much colder air in behind it.
631 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Dry high pressure continues through mid week. A cold front sweeps across the area Wednesday evening, before an increasingly unpredictable but active pattern sets in for the weekend, potentially producing another round of winter weather. Upper heights will otherwise rise today as trough continues to pull away from the East Coast.
After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will become much colder, both with the overnight lows and daytime highs Wednesday.
531 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 For the 12Z TAFs, a strong cold front will move across the region this evening and tonight and will be accompanied by north winds, with the overall highest winds at KGUY and KDHT. A pre-frontal surface trof of low pressure is projected to slide eastward into the OK and TX Panhandles today. A strong cold front will move across the area this evening and tonight with sharply colder temperatures Wednesday. Undercut NBM high temperatures for Wednesday a bit as values appear a bit warm compared to the lower METMOS, MAVMOS, MEXMOS, and ECXMOS numbers.
Temperatures will remain cool today in the mid to upper 50s as most of the area will be starting at or below freezing this morning.
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Bedford- Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.
However, they will quickly increase from the north across northern OK by early AM Wed as a strong cold front dives down the plains.
This will result in a much warmer night with lows in the lower 40s early Tuesday morning. Southwest winds will increase and become gusty as temperatures climb into the lower 80s.
640 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will shift to the east today, allowing temperatures to warm to near or just above normal values through Wednesday. A disturbance moving northeast from the southern plains into the Tennessee Valley will provide the next chance of precipitation late Wednesday before a cold front brings below normal temperatures back late in the work week. At the same time, a cold front will drop southeast from the Great Lakes. The cold front will be just south of our area by Wednesday evening. As cooler air moves in behind the front, ptype will transition over to snow from the northwest through the evening hours.
432 AM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 A cold front crossing the area this morning will be followed by gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures.
A low pressure system will continue to progress eastward from southern California and bring scattered light showers across San Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties as it moves overhead through the morning hours. The system will then pull away across Arizona allowing high pressure to build over the Great Basin, leaving us with above-normal temps and breezy northerly winds for the rest of the week, especially for the Colorado River Valley. QPF values have more or less stayed on track but MRMS estimates have shown over a quarter inch of rain in some of the higher terrain areas such as the Springs. Ridge building then begins to take shape over the western CONUS which puts us squarely in a north-south oriented H5 flow pattern, keeps temperatures above average and enhances northerly breezes for the Colorado River Valley Wednesday.
242 AM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 A cold front crossing the area this morning will be followed by gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures.
956 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure is in place across the area today, with light winds through the afternoon. Had a cold start to the day, with some freezing temperatures in inland Levy county this morning. High pressure in place over the waters will allow winds and seas to continue to subside today. High pressure will continue through mid-week.
Weak upper trough over SoCal will continue to open up into a wave as it moves east into northern Arizona through the day. Eastern Pacific upper ridge will build eastward over California through the week with a slight warming trend.
311 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 (Issued 311 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022) Today through Wednesday: Winds will be shifting to southerly early this morning as warm air advection begins to kick in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This area of low pressure will be moving eastward along the US/Canadian border through tonight. As this low moves over Lake Superior an arctic front will move across Wisconsin bringing much colder temperatures and brisk northwesterly winds.
Departing high pressure will maintain dry conditions. By sunrise temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. A trailing cold front associated with a clipper low propagating over Ontario and Quebec will provide the chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. With temperatures plummeting to the teens and afternoon rain and snowmelt, flash freezing of any wet roadways could be possible. The ridges could see a couple inches of snow, but most other locations should remain less than an inch Wednesday night.
Light winds are becoming southeasterly as this high moves away from the local area. By Wednesday morning, these winds become more southerly as a strong cold front approaches the region. With high pressure still in control over the eastern half of our region, expect moisture (and low-level clouds) to increase over the western half of the CWA in the morning, and then slowly pushing eastward throughout the day as the high continues to retreat.
1033 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Dry high pressure continues through mid week. A cold front sweeps across the area Wednesday evening, before an increasingly unpredictable but active pattern sets in for the weekend, potentially producing another round of winter weather. Upper heights will otherwise rise today as trough continues to pull away from the East Coast.
The warmer weather will be short-lived however, as a strong cold front brings a significant cooling trend for the middle and end of the week.
1126 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 (The rest of today ) Warm afternoon on tap with southerly winds in place ahead of the next cold front. Some gusty winds noted per latest obs across parts of the forecast area, though expect overall wind speeds to lessen by mid to late afternoon as the cold front draws closer.
(The rest of today ) Warm afternoon on tap with southerly winds in place ahead of the next cold front. Some gusty winds noted per latest obs across parts of the forecast area, though expect overall wind speeds to lessen by mid to late afternoon as the cold front draws closer.
The low clouds and fog should mix out by Wednesday afternoon. The strong cold front arrives during the Hill Country and exits south of the area by around midnight.
244 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Mild conditions will be in store for the rest of today ahead of the next cold front expected late tonight.
146 PM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains along an anchored baroclinic zone.
233 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 As of early afternoon, mild temps in the 30s were observed across most of the region ahead of a low pressure system tracking across the US-Canadian border region and associated cold front quickly progressing southeast across MN. Expect gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range overnight as lapse rates steepen behind the cold front.
(Tonight through Tuesday) Big changes are on tap for Wednesday as another arctic cold front pushes into the area. Some of latest CAM thermal profiles indicate precipitation will initially start as rain but should transition to a freezing rain/sleet mix during the afternoon hours as temperatures continue to fall, before switching to primarily light snow by late afternoon. With temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20s by late afternoon a few elevated surfaces like roads/bridges could become slick in spots, especially if a quick burst of snow or sleet occurs.
1114 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Temperatures are rising nicely this morning especially over the western half of Kentucky where there is less snow cover and farther away from high pressure centered over the southeast U. but with temperatures in the 20s, do have to keep an eye out for freezing fog potentially making for some patchy slick surfaces. Overnight, a fairly stout LLJ will develop ahead of a cold front. The warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front will be characterized by scant surface moisture recovery, but modest isentropic lifting. Going into the weekend, broad cyclonic flow dominates most of the CONUS as dome of high pressure reinforces in the northeast Pacific\West Coast.
20Z surface analysis shows a dry cold front from near Marshall, MN to O'Neill, NE evident by a marked shift in winds to the northwest. Will see some spotty observations near or slightly above Wind Advisory thresholds (sustained 30 mph and/or gusts to 45 mph), especially along the Highway 14 corridor, but not expecting widespread windy conditions and will hold off on issuing an advisory.
256 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 The main focus continues to be on the arctic cold front that will cross our region Wednesday, followed by a brief bout of wintry precp Wed night.