Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana Saturday and Saturday night before it stalls near the Ohio River. While HRRR isn't showing much in the way of convection there think things will get more widespread later as the low level jet and upper jet approach. Main focus tonight will be on pops as a cold front gets closer and interacts with deepening moisture and sufficient instability. Models in good agreement that the aforementioned cold front will move to northwestern parts of the forecast area near or slightly after 12z Saturday.
709 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 An inverted trough of low pressure across southern MN today continues to produce widespread showery activity with isolated thunder embedded in a few of the taller showers. This trough will very slowly work its way east through tonight, and we'll see a gradual clearing trend this evening across western MN, and through eastern MN and into western WI later tonight. On the east side of the trough, we expect patchy fog development tonight with our western WI counties to be the most susceptible to fog development. By Saturday night, a cooler set-up is expected with high pressure building across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Saturday looking rather interesting as mid-level flow increases out of the NE, which will allow storms that fire up over the mountains to propagate SW across the lower elevations.
Excessive heat conditions will impact the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the weekend. Broad upper troughing will continue to move eastward across the Upper Great Lakes while losing amplitude with time to the more confluent flow aloft. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the cold front with PW values of 2+ inches or near record values based on SPC sounding climatology.
The upper low continues to wobble south and west, with much of the heavy rain moving south of the area.
Hot and dry conditions over the forecast area Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves over the region.
/issued 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) Cold front moving into the I-20 corridor as of late this afternoon, with convection developing across much of the area. Latest GFS and ECMWF show the same general trend, but don't carry the front quite as far south and keep the highest rain chances across the area south of a San Angelo to Brady line. Significantly more cloud cover, and with a cooler air mass in place, temperatures will be cooler as well. 07 (Saturday night through Friday) Rain chances will continue over all of West Central Texas through this weekend with the best chances over the southern half of the area nearest the cold frontal boundary and the better moisture. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s through the period, near seasonal norms.
/Issued 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The cold front has pushed well south of the Panhandles today while a west to northwest upper flow prevails across the forecast area through the weekend.
845 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure remains off east coast.
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain across the Pacific Northwest through Saturday.
Weak low pressure seen on satellite in northern IA producing scattered showers this afternoon across the cwa. Tonight: Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will diminish this evening then end overnight as the cold front pushes across the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, which is normal for mid August.
Cold front lies between the I-10 and I-20 corridor this evening with drier surface air advecting into the northeastern 2/3 of the forecast area on northeasterly winds.
Main threat will be over the higher terrain of the East TN mountains with very limited effect over the valley and TAF sties.
1047 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure remains off east coast.
In addition to the high moisture content of the atmosphere, warm cloud and rain processes remain in place and lapse rates are basically moist adiabatic. Freezing levels are in excess of 17k feet, and wet bulb zero heights are near 16k feet which is well above normal. This indicates that the broad area of low pressure is slowly shifting to the west. /issued 423 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WEST TO MID 80S EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Several weak disturbances rippling around the base of northern plains/Canadian short wave trough, aiding in development of isolated showers eastern South Dakota/northwest Iowa.
The cold front has moved into our northern areas and stretches from near Georgetown to Kerrville to Langtry. On Saturday, a cold front which is currently located along a Midland to Abilene line will move southward into west central Texas. This should keep the higher rain chances farther north into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau on Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper low currently over southern Louisiana will move westward toward Texas.
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure remains off east coast.
1043 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Upper level trof passing through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. As trof passes to the east, skies should be clear overnight and winds becoming fairly light.
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A slow moving cold front was making its way through the Ozarks this afternoon.
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The cold front is moving southeast through the area, although a prefrontal trough has stolen much of the surface convergence. The combination of this prefrontal trough, lack of significant moisture and some stronger CIN, look to keep the precipitation chances and coverage a lot more muted than previously thought. Will keep the highest pops southeast.
Evening update: most of the afternoon cumulus are collapsing with a ridge nosing in and more importantly the waning heating of the day. I increased cloud cover a bit overnight toward the Cascades/Okanogan Highlands, but with these clouds coming into the ridge I expect it will dissipate some. Cote' 00Z TAFS: Dry and VFR conditions expected at high pressure builds in.
Areas of low pressure will track along the front and will bring rain to the area at times, and some of the rain will likely fall heavily at times. cooler and drier air covers far northern Maine late this evening. To the north of this area of showers, it will remain dry the remainder of the night with some high clouds and patchy fog, especially in the low spots/river valleys.
1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Several weak disturbances rippling around the base of northern plains/Canadian short wave trough, aiding in development of isolated showers eastern South Dakota/northwest Iowa.
715 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Tonight: Large but weak high pressure that continues to spread slowly east southeast from the Northern Rockies as pushed the cold front well to the SE & S of KS. Cold front pushed south of the forecast area this morning and now extends from far northeast MO to southeast OK. It'll be "clear sailing" thereafter as weak high pressure spreads slowly E acrs KS.
Surface front has made its way across much of the forecast area this afternoon, while the broader upper trof moves eastward across the state. Incoming dewpoints in the 60s bring some relief from the high humidities of recent days on Saturday. Overnight lows fall into the 60s with daytime highs in the low to middle 80s. Weak upper trough will linger across the region this weekend however aside from some mid cloud don't expect any precip given the low level frontal position well southeast of the area.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through the weekend. High pressure remains centered over California this evening keeping Utah under a dry northwesterly flow aloft.
Redevelopment across Louisiana is likely during the overnight hours and especially after sunrise as an upper trough slowly drifts north along the Mississippi River. At the same time, a cold front will move into the area from the northwest and widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this front and spread across most of the area during the morning hours.
High pressure at the surface has already nosed south across much of MT and winds will remain light overnight. VFR conditions are expected for Saturday as a high pressure system brings dry conditions and only a few clouds.
905 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Aloft: A broad longwave trof was over the cntrl USA with a ridge along the W Coast. The base of the trof axis will move thru the fcst area tonight establishing NW flow for tomorrow. This high will slide into MT/WY tonight and emerge over the cntrl Plains tomorrow.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting southeastward across the Northern Plains. Cool and drier air will return to southwest Kansas overnight and Saturday as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into the Central Plains. On Saturday little if any change in temperatures were forecast in the 850mb level as the easterly wind in the lower levels continues. Based on these conditions it appears the highs Saturday afternoon will be very similar to those highs earlier today.
/issued 206 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The recently advertised cold front was moving thru the PB/SE NM ahead of schedule and water vapor imagery shows a plume of rich moisture streaming overhead. High temps will cool to 85-90 Sat/Sun with lows mostly in the 65-70, and thereafter highs will climb back to the low to mid 90s.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area tonight. The ridge axis is moving ashore and will cross the Cascades late tonight.
It will be muggy with lows in the lower to middle 70s tonight, and highs Saturday in the lower and middle 80s.
Cold front has pushed into Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas this evening.
Little change in area weather tonight with strong ridge of pressure remaining in control. but this activity should be isolated and mainly effect the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 92 73 91 / 20 20 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 93 73 90 / 10 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 91 69 90 / 20 20 20 30.
1120 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Widely scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected along and behind a slow-moving cold front through this evening, and will be most intense across central MO where a few peeks of afternoon sunshine allowed a bit more instability to build. While the surface front has already pushed through the CWA, elevated frontogenesis and upper-level lift associated with a positively tilted upper trough has supported continued weak convective initiation, mainly along and ahead of a vague secondary boundary that is evident via a radar fine-line and a slight veer and increase to the surface winds. As the boundary continues to shift to the south and cooler, more stable air eventually arrives this evening, storms will push out of the region and leave the forecast area dry for tonight and the remainder of the weekend.
An upper trough over the region will transition to northwest flow on Saturday as the trough shifts east.
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Tonight: Large but weak high pressure that continues to spread slowly east southeast from the Northern Rockies as pushed the cold front well to the SE & S of KS. Cold front pushed south of the forecast area this morning and now extends from far northeast MO to southeast OK. There'll be excellent weather thru Sat Ngt & lkly byd as large, but weak, high pressure conts to spread slowly ESE acrs the Great Plains.
803 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure remains off east coast.
The drier and cooler airmass over the northeast plains has remained stable up to this point. Temperatures should be about 5 degrees warmer, helping the airmass to become a little less stable than it is today.
Areas of low pressure will track along the front and will bring rain to the area at times, and some of the rain will likely fall heavily at times. Ridging associated with a high over Hudson's Bay will nose into the area overnight with cooler and drier air. The next wave of low pressure will advect eastward from the western Great Lakes overnight and cause rain to develop in western mountains of the forecast area in the morning and spread across the entire area during the afternoon.
1059 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 An inverted trough of low pressure across southern MN today continues to produce widespread showery activity with isolated thunder embedded in a few of the taller showers. This trough will very slowly work its way east through tonight, and we'll see a gradual clearing trend this evening across western MN, and through eastern MN and into western WI later tonight. On the east side of the trough, we expect patchy fog development tonight with our western WI counties to be the most susceptible to fog development. By Saturday night, a cooler set-up is expected with high pressure building across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s once again tonight and the arrival of the low level cloud deck should help to keep temps from falling much beyond those values.
New development will likely be along a weak 7h trough axis, where better mid-level moisture remains. However, dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s remain in place across much of Oklahoma and north Texas, despite a north wind. /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The cold front is moving southeast through the area, although a prefrontal trough has stolen much of the surface convergence. The combination of this prefrontal trough, lack of significant moisture and some stronger CIN, look to keep the precipitation chances and coverage a lot more muted than previously thought. Will keep the highest pops southeast.
still seeing convection developing over Deep E TX/Wcntrl LA along a NW-SE elevated theta-e axis on the backside of the upper low which remains nearly stationary over extreme SE TX/SW MS. but seeing some convection trying to redevelop upstream over Srn OK/NW AR along a weak upper trough axis. The progs are in good agreement with the SE LA upper low remaining nearly stationary overnight. Convection redevelopment tonight should again be confined near and E of the upper low center. Should the low indeed lift across Ern LA.
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Cold front pushed south of the forecast area this morning and now extends from far northeast MO to southeast OK. It'll be "clear sailing" thereafter as weak high pressure spreads slowly E acrs KS.
Despite cloudy conditions most of Monday, temperatures will still rise into the low 50s to low 60s.
With this area seeing the most cloud cover and rain, the lowest max temps are expected here. Tonight, as the rain moves off, but the area remains generally under radiational-cooling limiting mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, lows tonight in the low to mid 50s expected, well above seasonal.
1051 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a nearly zonal upper-level flow pattern across the continental United States, with lower-tropospheric ridging prevailing over most of the Gulf of Mexico basin. Northeasterly gradient flow has weakened over the Florida Peninsula during the last 24 hours, thanks to a migratory trough/ridge over Alabama/Georgia/Carolinas. Satellite infrared imagery and analysis indicates several meanders and eddies moving quickly eastward across the lower Straits, with current velocities exceeding 3 knots in many areas.
415 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Low clouds, drizzle & patchy areas of -ra, fog are being observed early this morning as a warm front makes its way inland.
1020 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Isolated rain and snow showers will accompany a weak cold front later today and this evening.
Arctic air has moved in over the Bulk of central Canada with a trough extending back into British Columbia and off its coast where it is dipping south slightly. Northeast montana lies on the border of these two airmasses under a very sharp gradient that is acting as a lift zone as cooler air marches south.
803 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Low pressure will approach from the west today. The low will track north of Maine tonight drawing a cold front across the region. The low will exit across the maritimes Monday.
Winds are light and variable early this morning but that will be changing later today as a warm front across Central TX into SE TX and S LA comes north. have ceilings coming up to MVFR in the wake of the returning northward warm front briefly this evening before taking once again after midnight to IFR or LIFR conditions. Warm front nudging against east tx portion of the area, with fog increasing over portions of TX just outside the cwa, so will keep patchy fog in fcst for east TX thru 9 am.
1007 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Weak W/NW flow acrs the FL peninsula this mrng as the remnants of a frontal trof extending from the nrn Bahamas to the NC Outer Banks interacts with a weak high pres ridge over the Deep South. A weak spot low dvlpg within the trof will lift E/NE this aftn with high pres nosing in behind it. The lcl Atlc is on the backside of a weak trof extending from the nrn Bahamas to the NC Outer Banks.
546 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure briefly builds in from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest today resulting a break in precipitation before another round of light snow tonight. Tonight into early Monday a warm front lifts north across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, resulting in a period of light snowfall for areas north of Highway 2. Focus for short-term forecast was on the snowfall associated with a warm front lifting north into northern Minnesota late today into tonight.
Temperatures tonight will likely see quite a bit of variability, as windier areas will likely be noticeably warmer than areas which see light winds.
At the same time, overrunning warm air has caused freezing rain to occur along Interstate 90 from roughly Missoula west towards Superior. Moderate snow has mixed with freezing rain along Bull Lake Road, resulting in a temporary road closure. Freezing rain has also been observed from Missoula south through the Bitterroot valley as far south as Victor. Please exercise caution this morning if you must travel in areas where freezing rain exists. If you live or plan to be in northwest Montana tonight through Monday: PLEASE be safe, and care for those around you and for your pets/livestock during this period of elevated concern! A fairly strong cold front will begin to slide south into western Montana and north-central Idaho Monday evening into the overnight hours.
For LBB/PVW the low clouds and fog are expected to remain to the east because of southwesterly surface winds.
Expect another day of prevailing benign weather conditions with light to moderate easterly/northeasterly winds, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
600 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Maintained patchy fog through the morning hours across Southeast KS ahead of a slow moving cold front but confidence remains fairly low at this time. A warm front will lift north of the area on Monday with breezy southwest winds advecting drier and warmer air across the area. Patchy dense fog developed a couple hours ago near this trough, mainly affecting KICT. What's left of this front will continue to wash out today as lee troughing strengthens.
Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge continues over the Rockies this morning providing northwest flow to Arkansas. The ridge will make its way east moving over Arkansas Monday. Monday afternoon, a trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains.
and the higher elevations in east TN. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 37 60 53 / 20 0 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 34 57 51 / 10 0 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 53 34 56 51 / 10 0 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 31 61 47 / 10 0 20 40.
Snow is finally decreasing in the higher Boise Mountains and West Central Idaho Mountains. Models take it rapidly inland to our area as an opening trough overnight. Larger upper low off nw Washington will then become the main low.
/issued 413 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017/ Its 10-20 degrees warmer this morning than it was yesterday. Its a bit cooler in Northeast Arkansas where skies have cleared. Over the next 48 hours flow aloft will gradually transition from weak northwesterly to weak Southwesterly as a trough moves out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Southerly flow will strengthen today bringing a moister and warmer airmass back across the Midsouth.
with the bulk of this activity just south of the north- ward moving warm front. /ISSUED 415 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017/ Low clouds, drizzle & patchy areas of -ra, fog are being observed early this morning as a warm front makes its way inland.
Lighter Winds and Warmer Today. A low level trough axis stretched across NE Florida noticeable in the the visible satellite image with cumuliform clouds from just north of SGJ extending SW toward GNV and a cool NNW drainage flow across SE GA and near the I-10 corridor of NE FL where temps were in the 40s (lows in the mid 30s this morning across SE GA) with 50s south of the trough axis. There were some light showers noted across northern GA with this feature and indicated very low 10-15% rain chances near the Altamaha River basin midday as this weakening sheared out trough energy shifts southward. Low level moisture will increase across SE GA under the low level ridge axis increasing cloud cover across our GA zones into the evening.
Otherwise partly cloudy over the area with High pressure centered over the Devils Lake Basin. Utilizing a multi-model blend for snow ratio's we ended up with mainly 1 to 2 inches of snow along and north of the Highway corridor, and some locally higher amounts of around 3 inches right along the international border, near the Turtle Mountains for the period of today through tonight.
648 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A cold front will push through the region dry today, as low pressure travels through southern Canada.
946 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 High pressure over the region will slip to the south this afternoon as a low pressure system crosses Southern Canada and the Great Lakes Region. High pressure will rebuild across the area tonight and Monday.
413 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Its 10-20 degrees warmer this morning than it was yesterday. Its a bit cooler in Northeast Arkansas where skies have cleared. Over the next 48 hours flow aloft will gradually transition from weak northwesterly to weak Southwesterly as a trough moves out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Southerly flow will strengthen today bringing a moister and warmer airmass back across the Midsouth.
649 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A dry airmass associated with high pressure moving off to the east will continue to cause pleasant weather across our area today.
527 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Despite a weak frontal boundary sagging south across the region today, upper level ridging and mostly clear skies will still allow temperatures to rise into the 50s near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon with 40s to the north. Despite the clouds and precipitation, WAA alone will bring temperatures well above average with highs ranging from the lower 50s over northern MO and middle 60s south of Hwy 50.
Do think some areas will make it into the low 70s, but locations in the Hill Country may remain in the 60s. Warmer on Monday with highs in the mid and upper 70s, with even a few low 80s across the southwest zones.
A much warmer day in store tomorrow as weak front begins to lift north as a warm front. This is in response to a progressive trough that will make its way across the Great Basin and into the Central Plains late tomorrow afternoon. Increasing pressure gradient as lee trough deepens over the High Plains will result in another windy day. A surge in low-level moisture ahead of this trough and strong WWA could see some light rain showers developing Monday morning, especially across the southeast corner of the CWA.