Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north.
411 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 With clear skies and dry air in place, a large ridge valley split has developed with a few valley locations near 50 degrees while ridge tops remain in the mid 60s. High pressure will remain in control today with good mixing and continued southwest flow. This will once again allow temperatures to shoot into the low 80s for much of the area this afternoon, again threatening record highs. These clouds will gradually build down overnight tonight into tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches Kentucky.
148 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
232 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will bring drier weather the rest of the week with valley inversions and the potential for some early morning freezing fog in Sierra valleys as well as portions of the Basin and Range.
More fantastic flight weather can be expected today and tonight with a continuation of protective ridging keeping skies free from any ceiling below twenty thousand feet for almost the entire forecast period. The only spot where the forecast may be slightly intriguing will be at tri where there may be a little light fog that may briefly dip into the high end of mvfr category around sunrise.
338 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will be centered just off the Southeast coast and extend across the Southeast states through Thursday. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday night.
Additional showers and storms may develop along a cold front/northerly wind shift, which could impact KOKC/KOUN/KPNC. Front will move back south tomorrow afternoon as longwave trough progresses across Northern Plains into Great Lakes region. Precipitation chances spread into the area tomorrow as a cold front moves into and through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitation chances diminish late Thursday as the front moves to the south and upper ridging builds over the area.
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL Ridging aloft will continue through today but the upper ridge will get suppressed on Thursday as a front pushes into the TN valley. Strong CAA kicking in behind with a very dry airmass setting up shop for the weekend as the H5 ridge amplifies into the Great Lakes.
636 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Low pressure over the plains will move northeast across the southern Great Lakes today and tonight causing showers to overspread our area. Showers will end across southeast portions of the area Thursday morning as the low and associated cold front move away from our area.
A splitting trough was working across the Rockies this morning. An impressive 586dm upper ridge builds in for Thursday for abundant sunshine. Still looking at warmer than normal and dry conditions through most of the period.
Satellite showing deep low pressure system and frontal boundary offshore with warm advection pattern. A weakening cold front will then move through the region Wed night into Thursday morning. A deepening upper trough along 140W will cause an upper level ridge to build over the western U. This front will weaken as it moves into the region due to the strength of the upper ridge over the area.
Strong ridge continues to have it's axis right over the forecast area, according to latest water vapor satellite imagery. The strength of this ridge is helping to slow the forward progression of a cool front. For the daytime period Thursday, again we will keep the highs pops for a low QPF situation. Otherwise, looking at temperatures, the strength of the ridge over us today should mean another warm one.
An upper trough digging over the Desert SW this morning will bring big changes including cooler temperatures and the best chance of rain we have seen since September. Moisture has pushed west across the region this morning evidenced by dewpoints in the 50's and 60's backing up against the higher terrain. A cold front will move through the region tonight, adding yet another focus for showers and thunderstorms. An upper low will cut off from the main flow later today and meander over the SW U.
Temperatures currently running where normal highs would be for this time of year and the unseasonably warm weather will continue today ahead of next cold front.
The protective ridge will gradually flatten tonight into Thursday morning as an upper trough builds southeast out of Western Canada into the Upper Midwest. The southerly flow will strengthen ahead of the trough today.
Although high temperatures will be slightly cooler than they were today, they will still be 15-20 degrees above average for this time of year.
420 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure over the Carolinas provides a warm southwest flow through tonight. A cold front crosses Thursday.
350 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Today is a similar story to yesterday in regards to high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and potentially another daily record to be broken. It looks like the ridge that has been in place for the last several days will slide east while it begins to erode which will allow for cloud cover to increase today. With that cloud cover in place, overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than the past few nights. Conditions behind the front will quickly become noticeably cooler with clear skies.
1111 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A cold front will move across the area after midnight shifting winds to a northern direction, speeds generally 10 mph or less. Afternoon temperatures cool about 5f to 7f per 850mb temperatures with readings in the low to mid 60s. Deep trough of low pressure will extended southwestward from the upper Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the same time, a cut off and stationary area of low pressure will be situated in southern Arizona.
The dominant large-scale feature will be a mid-continent ridge. The position of the forecast area near the longwave ridge position will greatly limit opportunities for precipitation, until possibly very late in the forecast period.
149 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate, with VFR conditions and only a few/sct 3-4kft cu streaming in on ENE winds. /issued 925 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ The weather will remain dry tonight with a east to northeast wind flow over South Florida along with the High Risk of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches. However, the 500mb ridge will begin to break down tomorrow ahead of a trough that will move in from Canada over the next few days.
High pressure will be North of the region Today, with a moist onshore flow. The high will weaken Tonight, which will lessen the onshore flow and coastal shower chances. A cold front will approach from the Northwest Thursday afternoon, but weak ridging in the morning will continue moist onshore flow. a significant synoptic pattern change begins as weak high pressure will shift southward as a fairly strong cold front is fcst to progress southeast toward our area.
Stronger high pressure ridge is building southward into Florida and the adjacent Atlantic early this morning. High pressure and resultant moderate onshore flow will continue to dominate the local wx pattern over the next H24. Mid level trough begins its amplification down the eastern CONUS, dislodging the persistent deep ridge over the southeast. Little change in temps, remaining slightly above normal in the low-mid 80s.
Temperatures are considerably cooler compared to 24 hours ago with most areas running 5-10 degrees colder. Strong ridging settles in for the remainder of the week resulting in dry weather with milder daytime temperatures and cooler nights.
509 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front was moving into the OK Panhandle as of this writing, and will continue to track southward across the fcst area today. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the advertised upper level low pressure system digging into the southwestern states early this morning. The combination of the southward movg cold front coupled with some moisture suggests slgt chc to chc pops for today and tonight. Thursday and Thursday night still appear to be dry as the upper level low pressure system only moves sluggishly nwd to near Phoenix, AZ.
High pressure remains in control for the rest of the workweek, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Some AM patch freezing fog is also possible today and tomorrow.
447 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Upper trough across Colorado is shearing out with the remnant low dropping into Arizona. Forecast highs for today are a bit cooler than yesterday thanks to the little bit of cold advection we have had. This is probably alright, though if the clouds dissipate faster than expected we would need a bit warmer temperatures. Much of the plains should get below freezing tonight. The Denver area will likely be mostly above freezing, but low lying areas and other localized cold spots could drop into the upper 20s. Ridging over the state will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Thursday with highs back into the upper 60s.
A cold front is due to pass over the terminals AFT 02/18Z, which will bring northerly wind shifts BTWN 10 to 20 kts, CIG AOA 8k ft AGL and increasing shower activity along with an isolated thunderstorm or two. Temperatures are running nearly 20 degrees cooler than what we've seen across the southeast. Our cold front is still on track to move across the Panhandles over the course of the day on Wednesday. There will be a low end chance for isolated showers to develop along the leading edge of the cold front as it moves into the central portions of the Panhandles as early as noon Wednesday. Models are still in agreement that we could have a lull in shower activity Thursday and Thursday night as the upper low closes over southern Arizona.
Lowered min temps about 2 degrees west into the lower 30s. At 6 pm CDT a cold front extended from low pressure in Manitoba southwest to the Montana/Saskatchewan border. A trailing cold front is progged to move southeast across ND, and southwest winds should become northwesterly. A building upper level ridge follows the trough, allowing warm and dry air behind southwest winds to spread across western and central ND on Wednesday. Expecting lows tonight from the lower 30s to around 40. Another mild day Wednesday with highs from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south central.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid level ridging remains centered over the Gulf of Mexico this morning with supporting high pressure at the surface over the Northeast Gulf. The resulting persistent east fetch over the East Gulf will drive long periods well toward the Lower Texas Coast and beaches, which may allow some beach runup. Finally, anti-cyclonic surface flow over the Gulf is advecting deep moisture from the Southwest Gulf towards the lower Texas coast. The synoptic pattern remains nearly unchanged through the forecast period with mid level ridging overhead. The higher rain chances will remain over the Gulf waters due to the deeper moisture. However, due to the mid level ridge overhead and the lack of any significant surface lifting feature, decided to lower pops on Thursday.
350 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Upper level high pressure sprawled across Florida was on a weakening trend, as a developing trough in the northern stream (west of the Great Lakes) amplifies and heads to the east-southeast. The circulation around this ridge was sending streams of upper level moisture/clouds (some from the western Gulf - the other coming from the subtropical Pacific west of the Dateline near the equator) across the eastern CONUS. High temperatures across the area should once again warm well above seasonable levels, but this time a tad cooler (low/mid 80s) given more clouds which will limit direct solar insolation, and somewhat lower heights. A cold front associated with this next system will bring more clouds, and isolated to low-end scattered showers across the area during Thursday. Kept the higher rain chances to our northern areas.
As we enter the start of a new week attention will turn on whether or not a cut-off upper low over the desert southwest will dislodge and lift northeast.
223 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Sunny skies and offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather today and Thursday. Onshore flow and cooler weather will gradually return this weekend.
632 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold front through the region overnight into Thursday.
401 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Aloft: A +tilt trof was approaching from the Wrn USA and stretched from MT-AZ at 845Z. The Srn portion will break off and form a closed low over the Desert SW tonight. With the passage of this trof. The passage of this upr trof will shove the front S and E. as the upper level ridge breaks down and flow becomes more southwesterly in response to a cutoff low lifting out of the southwest. global models are in good agreement with upper level ridging building across the local area to end the work week as the aforementioned low pressure system cuts off across the desert southwest. with ample high level cloud cover passing across the region from time to time over the top of this ridge. As this low then moves through the rockies.
356 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A weakening cold front and deformation zone will continue moving east across western CO today. The upper trough over Utah will continue splitting, with the southern portion of the split forming a closed 500 mb low over NW AZ this morning. This closed low will continue digging south and deepening, reaching the southern AZ border this afternoon. All the short range models show this low wrapping up over SW AZ and drawing moisture from TX and the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will wrap into the closed low over Arizona on Thursday, then shift northward toward the Four Corners.
203 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure over the Carolinas provides a warm southwest flow through Wednesday night. A cold front crosses Thursday.
511 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A warm front will lift northeast through Pennsylvania today. A cold front will push southeast across the state on Thursday.
Dry weather conditions and seasonably mild temperatures will persist through late week as high pressure builds over the region.
214 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Weak high pressure will linger and confine any showers to the vicinity of the North Cascades and near the British Columbia border today.
639 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north.
454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure continues to dominate across most of the eastern CONUS including the Florida peninsula and into the Florida Straits. High pressure will continue to persist today. By Thursday regional high pressure will start to weaken as a cold front develops into the east central CONUS.
Main mid level flow pattern featured a trough in the western states with southwest flow through the Plains and into the Great Lakes. Modest low level moisture, dew points in the 50s or lower 60s, will surge north ahead of the low, fueling the potential for precipitation in theta-e convergence zone east through north of low track. Behind this system, a warmer pattern again sets up for the end of the week as heights build over the Plains and mean ridge position builds across out area.
1042 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Weak high pressure will linger and confine any showers to the vicinity of the North Cascades and near the British Columbia border through Wednesday.
This will keep overnight lows from bottoming out and have therefore gone with slightly warmer overnight lows tonight. 17 High pressure overhead will push south ahead of a front set to cross the area Thursday night.
Cooler air will work in after fropa, settling temps back closer to seasonal norms to finish out the week.
307 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Low pressure over the plains will move northeast across the southern Great Lakes today and tonight causing showers to overspread our area. Showers will end across southeast portions of the area Thursday morning as the low and associated cold front move away from our area.
102 AM EDT THU Nov 2 2016 A cold front stretching across southern Lower Michigan and Lake Erie will drift southeast through Thursday as low pressure moves across the lower Great Lakes along the front.
Current Situation and Analysis -- An early-morning upper-level composite analysis reveals an expansive, deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States.
332 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 With clear skies and dry air in place, a large ridge valley split has developed with a few valley locations near 50 degrees while ridge tops remain in the mid 60s. High pressure will remain in control today with good mixing and continued southwest flow. This will once again allow temperatures to shoot into the low 80s for much of the area this afternoon, again threatening record highs. These clouds will gradually build down overnight tonight into tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches Kentucky.
329 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Passage of a cold front early on Thursday will herald a return of more seasonable temperature to the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Ridging and warm reinforcement will maintain warm and generally dry weather today. The exception may be in the form of a sprinkle from Pittsburgh west and north as moisture flow in advance of an upper trough/cold front streams across the area. the aforementioned trough/associated surface front will rapidly increase precip probability as moisture flows through the frontal zone with support via increasing overall ascent and frontal convergence. Precip chances will fall abrubtly on Thursday as the front shunts the moisture feed south and east of the region, although some showers will remain possible, especially over northern zones, until passage of the mid level trough axis on Thursday eve.
Low pressure is now skirting along 130W and will move into Vancouver Island later this morning.
648 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold front through the region overnight into Thursday.
A warm front will bring more rain to the region today. A cold front will move through Western Washington tonight.
For late tonight and Wednesday, a low pressure system, currently located over central Kansas, will move along a frontal boundary to our south. As this low approaches, the 900 to 700 mb frontogenesis will increase across eastern Iowa, far southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. South of this boundary, dew points are in the lower 60s.
454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north.
This boundary will slowly shift ewd through the day but pick up momentum tonight as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes with attendant cyclogenesis over NY. Medium A broad positive tilt mid level trough will shift from northern WI into the OH Valley by days end. Any precipitation associated with this trough is proggd to be to our east or northeast. Weak cold advection is proggd with a glancing shot of the low level thermal trough.
152 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front will move across the area after midnight shifting winds to a northern direction, speeds generally 10 mph or less. Afternoon temperatures cool about 5f to 7f per 850mb temperatures with readings in the low to mid 60s. At the start of the extended the models show a closed area of low pressure, located over southern Arizona.
501 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the sern U. and a trough in the desert sw and Rockies this morning.
A weak short wave trough will move northeast through southeast Texas today as the upper trough over the Great Basin forms into a cut off low that will be over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico on Thursday. The low level flow will weaken some on Thursday as a frontal boundary moves into central Texas.
A period of 3 to 4 hours of restrictions should be expected before the low cloud deck either moves west of the terminal or scatters out (later this morning). At the surface, a few showers are noted along the Florida east coast this morning where easterly flow from the Gulf Stream is lifting over the cooler waters nearer to the Florida coast. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s, which will be a little cooler than recent afternoons.
531 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Passage of a cold front early on Thursday will herald a return of more seasonable temperature to the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Otherwise, ridging and warm reinforcement will maintain warm and generally dry weather today, although moisture flow in advance of an upper trough/cold front will support mid and upper cloudiness, especially through the morning and especially over the I 80 corridor. the aforementioned trough/associated surface front will rapidly increase precip probability as moisture flows through the frontal zone with support via increasing overall ascent and frontal convergence. Precip chances will fall abrubtly on Thursday as the front shunts the moisture feed south and east of the region, although some showers will remain possible, especially over northern zones, until passage of the mid level trough axis on Thursday eve.
Water Vapor Satellite trends early this morning place an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States, an upper level trough over the Western United States, and a subtropical jet stream transporting moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the Southern/Central plains and Mississippi Valley mostly in the form of high clouds. Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from Southern Lower Michigan back through Northwest Missouri and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. A ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast United States will bring another very warm and rain free day to the Mid-South. Some cloud cover may result in slightly cooler temperatures than the past few days with near record to record highs in the lower to middle 80s. A weak cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday.