Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FORCE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARDS BANGOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE THE COOLER EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN. THE INTERIOR DOWN EAST APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY LOCATION WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE WL INCRS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF DRG THE AFTN/EVNG HRS. TDS INCREASE INTO THE M60S AHD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS, LEADING TO ARND 800 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE PER 00Z GFS.
350 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2015 CLEAR AND QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION AND BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA. WITH THE MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD AND THE HIGH DEVELOPING NEARLY OVERHEAD.
546 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 09Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM NW OHIO INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. LEAVING DYING COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY. SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FIRE ALONG AND S OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN EVEN RARER TSTM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOME SOUTH FACING LOCATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THAT HAS KEPT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND SINCE LAST WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AND SHIFT FURTHER SW/W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/S TEXAS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT MODELS ALL COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY.
625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PL WITH AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. HIRES PROGS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WRN TROF WILL BOTTOM OUT LATER THIS MORNING OVER AZ/NM. MET/MAV VALUES ARE QUITE SIMILAR AS WELL AS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. DEE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
855 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY TO OUR EAST. BUT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO VALLEY COUNTY EAST OF MCCALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT 09Z UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN WA SSEWD THROUGH WRN ID. TROUGH NARROWING AS IT MOVES EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE 7 TO 14 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO IA FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH CLOUD FIELD BEING ERODED GRADUALLY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARMER WITH THE SUNSHINE.
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015 An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning of the work week.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 CURRENTLY - WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS CUBA. AND STRENGTHEN A FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UP.
858 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN THE TWO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ALOFT THE COAST COAST WHILE A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FL.
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
MID LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ELONGATED TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOWING A S/W ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY GIVEN AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRENDING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NEW SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. /ISSUED 702 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN KCDS THIS MORNING MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO KCDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE COAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. BY MONDAY MORNING A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION COMBINING TO BRING OFFSHORE FLOW ALL THE WAY CROSS THE EAST SIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST SIDE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE ARE INTO MONDAY.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AND THEN NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS HIGH AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING FAIR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft, with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS. This trough and the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather. The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday continues to push well east of the region as it fills in. Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the northerly winds. There may be some patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any headlines. A trough will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DRY UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLUS AIRMASS WARMING UNDER A RIDGE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE. WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY WILL OCCUR INLAND WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CA.
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS MORNING WITH STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN TX. WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 MARINE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low levels. A mid level trough will cut off from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that time period.
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
/ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS.
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE RE- ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.
639 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A BROAD RIDGE OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A DEEP TROF ACRS THE SOUTHERN GRT BSN. WITH OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRM ACRS THE PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON. JMS /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM W TO N/NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE AIDED BY MID/UPPER LVL ENERGY COMING OFF THE LOW AND A JET STREAK POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. AND WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN TODAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED TODAY.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS A RATHER QUIET MORNING FOR NE FL/SE GA IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND NE FL/SE GA. EXPECT THE LOW CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING.
626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
628 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST.
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon A strong upper level trough was currently over the southwest US. The upper level flow is backing to the southwest over the Southern Plains ahead of the trough. The upper level trough to our west will begin advancing east during today. For tonight, severe thunderstorms will still be possible this evening across mainly across the eastern 1/3 of the area as strong mid level ascent advances east ahead of the trough.
THE ELONGATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORM A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS JET ENERGY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WAS IN EASTERN UTAH THIS EARLY MORNING AND WILL WORK THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED LOW CREATES A STRONG AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SW COLORADO AS IT CURVES BACK INTO THE MAIN TROUGH WALL. FREEZING TEMPERATURES STILL A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN PRECIP AS A TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER PUSHES ANOTHER "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY.
838 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 06Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE EAST AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. TEXAS TECH WRF AND ARW/NMM ALL TARGET THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY BECAUSE THEY ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. LIGHT AND DRIZZLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWVA AND THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 48 70 47 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 40 62 39 / 10 10 10 0.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 48 70 47 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 40 62 39 / 10 10 10 0.
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT MIDWEEK FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE.
548 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015 An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning of the work week.
ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR TODAY AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
1146 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE SLOWING LIFTING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING THAN WE WERE EXPECTING EARLIER. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, BUT THESE FOLKS HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY. LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DROPPING DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY.
958 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015 An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning of the work week.
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS OR IN A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY.
BUT THE PARTIAL PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE SECOND HALF. MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARED WAY TOO WARM AND THE COOLER INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE RETAINED.
609 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM A LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ALL THREE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAD UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE. THE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO WEAK. THE PATTERN HOWEVER TRANSITIONS BY MID-WEEK AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
908 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015 High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region today into Monday. Some high clouds will spill over the ridge into the region today but skies will remain mostly sunny. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s in the valley with a few of the warmer spots topping out around 80 degrees. The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping off around 90 degrees.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY AS RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.
1119 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
928 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A GRADUAL DECAYING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MTNS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 72 92 / 10 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 88 70 89 / 20 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 84 65 87 / 30 40 20 20.
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO BY TOMORROW MORNING.
A slow moving cold front is draped along the western border of the Concho Valley and Big Country, or roughly from Fort Stockton to Sweetwater to Wichita Falls at 3 PM. 07 (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) An upper level high over the southeastern states Wednesday night will migrate westward into the Southern Plains through this coming weekend, resulting in an upper ridge dominating the central CONUS.
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM MN/WI INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 18Z SFC DATA HAS THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDET TO NEAR KOKC. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
829 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FAIR SKIES AND MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A THIN SMOKE/HAZE THIS EVENING.
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS NE OK / FAR NW AR WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.