Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
405 PM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 21z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front into far western NE - plus, another weak low just east of the Black Hills. Temperatures tonight will be tricky with higher elevations staying warmer than the plains.
Additional precipitation will fall, mainly this evening, as showers associated with the main upper trough move through the area.
The surface pressure gradient will remain high through the rest of the afternoon though as the trough lifts out of our area. Going into tonight, the pressure gradient will relax and winds will fall to a steady 5-10 mph and become more northerly with the further shift of the trough. Skies will begin to clear from the west to the east so that locations west of and along the MS River may fall to or slightly below freezing without the aid of cloud insulation. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for this time of year and highs will rise into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
This titan of a cold front has just made it through Crossville, and with it go the last remaining showers.
(previous discussion) Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will help to keep the cold front that brought severe weather across the Southeast from reaching east central Florida. Temperatures will be well above average, with highs in the low 80s (near records). Model guidance is suggesting low stratus clouds around 500-1000 feet at KLEE, KMCO, KSFB, and KISM, with the lowest clouds most likely at KLEE.
936 PM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 21z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front into far western NE - plus, another weak low just east of the Black Hills. Temperatures tonight will be tricky with higher elevations staying warmer than the plains.
Also lowered temperatures across east Texas to account for cooler trends and clear skies. Weekend temperatures will be at a much more seasonal feel, with afternoon high temperatures in the low to upper-50s, and overnight lows in the low to upper-30s. Except for tonight, where post-frontal low temperature will range from the mid-20s in out northern areas, to the low-30's in our southern counties and parishes. Winds are also expected to decouple headed into the overnight hours as the tight pressure gradients that were following the cold front leave the area. This decoupling of the winds, and cooler temperatures expected overnight, will cause a good portion of the Four-States region to see some frost through tomorrow morning.
Cold front will be moving across tri between 06-07z bringing an end to the possibility of a shower there.
In wake of a strong cold front that pushed through the region earlier today, breezy west to WNW winds have helped to bring in a cooler air mass as temperatures have dropped some 15-20 degrees over the last few hours. With abundant boundary layer moisture, low stratus will settle in overnight, with some light fog possible along the higher terrain (due to low ceilings ~ 1. Cool air advection will continue overnight as temperatures should drop into the low to mid 40s by daybreak Sunday. A brief dry spell is forecast for Sunday, as a cold front pushes to the south and brings drier air across the region. The short lived dry spell will come to an end Sunday night, as the cold front returns northward as warm front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 65 47 66 / 60 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 63 44 63 / 70 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 44 63 / 60 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 61 42 62 / 80 0 10 40 TN.
929 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 In wake of a strong cold front that pushed through the region earlier today, breezy west to WNW winds have helped to bring in a cooler air mass as temperatures have dropped some 15-20 degrees over the last few hours. With abundant boundary layer moisture, low stratus will settle in overnight, with some light fog possible along the higher terrain (due to low ceilings ~ 1. Cool air advection will continue overnight as temperatures should drop into the low to mid 40s by daybreak Sunday. A brief dry spell is forecast for Sunday, as a cold front pushes to the south and brings drier air across the region. The short lived dry spell will come to an end Sunday night, as the cold front returns northward as warm front.
Meanwhile, the surface warm front remains around the ND/MT border, and this will move through Sunday morning and bring milder temperatures to western North Dakota, primarily the southwest. Otherwise, expect quiet weather with weak deep layer flow and a thermal ridge axis over the western Dakotas. It will be warmer tomorrow, especially over southwest North Dakota where highs may approach freezing.
240 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Today a shrtwv trof will pass to the n of the area with an assocd Pacific cold front briefly turning the surface winds to w-nw across SE NM and PB. Otherwise high temps will trend about 7-9 degrees warmer than Sat. More of the same Mon/Tue when the low-level thermal ridge amplifies underneath near zonal mid-level flow, high temps will be 10-17 degrees above normal. By Wed a cold front is likely to slowly backdoor into the area, nearing I-20 by 00Z/Thur.
/issued 822 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Current radar and satellite imagery show lower clouds and drizzle over the Mid-South as high pressure begins to build into the area. Temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning will be close to 15 degrees lower than they were last night with lows generally in the lower 30s. /issued 256 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the mid 60s. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight which will bring drier and colder air into the Mid-South. Temperatures will be much colder than last night but will be fairly close to normal with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s.
1253 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Crossing low pressure will support widespread rain and gusty wind through early Sunday. Regional radar mosaic suggests widespread rain overspreading the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Rapid clearing of rain showers will occur late tonight in the wake of the trough, and gusty wind will subside quickly by mid-afternoon as high pressure builds and the pressure gradient relaxes. The net effect will be veering wind in response to low pressure strengthening to the northwest, and attendant warm advection to help displace the remnant cool air.
307 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. Latest radar imagery shows shower activity ahead of a crossing cold front exiting to the east. The net effect will be veering wind in response to low pressure strengthening to the northwest, and attendant warm advection to help displace the remnant cool air.
1049 PM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 Main change tonight, latest model guidance suggest slightly warmer temperatures overnight south of Highway 2, with temperatures expected to remain in the mid to upper teens.
1038 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 A strong low pressure system will lift northeast across the region tonight.
345 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Much quieter short-term period in store, with high pressure rushing into the region and allowing light and variable winds.
Strong Atlantic high pressure ridge in the process of bringing the cold front currently over the panhandle to a grinding halt. The upcoming week will feature a dominant ridge initially over the wrn Atlc to the eastern Gulf, supplying modest onshore winds and temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above normal through midweek. High pressure will rebuild over the region late in the week returning mild to warm temperatures daily into at least next Saturday. Re-developing ridge across the immediate area early after midweek will allow for seas to steadily diminish, however ocean swells will remain a notable wave component well into the week.
300 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Tranquil and seasonably cold weather today - A little light snow and possibly patchy freezing drizzle tonight - Milder early to midweek - A couple chances for mixed rain and snow mid to late week - Today - The last of the deformation zone light snow is tapering off as the low pressure system moves further east and away from our area. - Tonight - Overall short range guidance trends the past 24 hrs suggest an upper level disturbance will bring a little light snow and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle tonight.
/EC/ 00Z TAF discussion: Cold advection stratus, and perhaps some patchy areas of BR/FG in the PIB/HBG area, will bring widespread MVFR to IFR category ceilings to the forecast area overnight into early Sunday, but expect improvement to VFR conditions by late morning/afternoon as cold advection quickly shuts down with the rebuilding ridge aloft.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 65 47 66 / 90 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 63 44 63 / 100 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 44 63 / 90 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 61 42 62 / 100 0 10 40 TN.
1239 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A strong low pressure system will lift northeast across the region tonight.
1002 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The upper low continues its march eastward across the middle Missouri Valley this afternoon, and likewise the back edge of snowfall is exiting from west to east.
Temperatures will likely be just sufficient for cloud ice, so cannot rule out some freezing sprinkles mixed in with the flurries or light snow. Hedged a bit cooler on maxes on Monday given the potential for extensive low clouds.
Surface analysis is depicting a ridge axis over western Missouri that will move east across the area this morning.
544 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will prevail across central Illinois today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. The storm system that brought the wintry precipitation to central Illinois last evening has departed the region early this morning, while a ridge of high pressure builds eastward toward the Mississippi River. Despite the presence of the high, forecast soundings indicate ample boundary layer moisture remaining trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion today. Thanks to the cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 30s.
Persistent warm advection in the low-mid levels will continue on Monday helping boost temps back above average into the upper 20s to mid 30s. In addition, cloud ice could be lost outside of/behind the stronger lift associated with the wave, with some drizzle/freezing drizzle possible.
Precipitation is expected to begin between 6am and noon as lift increases and the low levels become more saturated. The predominant precip type will be light snow, but the HRRR and RAP are hinting at the potential for some freezing drizzle at times as we lose saturation aloft. Ultimately, I decided to side with the HRRR/RAP solution and added some freezing drizzle to the more favorable southeastern portions of the forecast area.
423 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure will move into the region today behind the cold front that pushed through the region last night. It will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy today with high temperatures back to normal for this time of year, reaching the lower to middle 30s. It will trend warmer for the first part of the work week with highs mainly in the 40s.
1000 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure and drier airmass will build into the region today through Monday. With cooler air filtering into the region, expect highs today ranging from the upper 30s in the northwest to the upper 40s across the southeast.
It looks like temperatures again along the 84/86 corridor will push above freezing, even if briefly this afternoon. For the rest of Monday, snow lingers in the mountains with showers possible in the lower elevations including the Snake Plain.
404 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 Early this morning a broad long wave trough was over the Central Rockies. Within the trough a smaller scale feature had generated flurries that was moving across the northern half of the forecast area. Behind them the sky will clear and a warm front will move in from the southwest. Similar to today, the cooler air will be east of Highway 83. Westerly winds will be breezing in the warmer air. Due to the dry environment in place am not expecting any precipitation either day despite some minor short wave troughs moving over the forecast area.
354 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Today and Tonight Enjoy the 'absence of rain' and cooler temperatures today because an unsettled wet pattern and above normal temperatures are likely across the Mid-South for the majority of the week! A post-frontal stratus deck currently blankets much of the Mid-South this AM.
This should allow for increase in snowfall rates during the afternoon/early evening, primarily along and east of the Highway 60 corridor, with a quick 1-2+ inches likely during this window.
335 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 A cold front will track across the region today into tonight, bringing with it a chance for snow. Locations expecting the higher amounts have been placed in a Winter Weather Advisory.
A trough and associated warm front across western North Dakota will slide east today, with the southwest getting into the warm sector long enough for high temperatures to reach into the upper 20s to around 30. A cold front will follow tonight, bringing a chance for snow showers west with the frontal passage by Monday Morning.
745 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. Elected to drop the majority of the Wind Advisory as wind gusts have already dropped below 40 MPH for areas outside the eastern counties/ridges. Latest radar imagery shows shower activity diminishing with increasing subsidence behind the a cold front exiting to the east. Temperatures will be much cooler with CAA behind the front with afternoon temperatures cooler than observed early this morning.
A cold front is moving out of the forecast area early this morning with the veil of cirrus and mid deck clouds building further east across the Eastern Seaboard. Stayed pretty close to guidance temperatures today and tonight with highs mainly in the lower 60s and lows in the 40s. Beautiful subtropical ridge holds its position or even strengthens to some degree over the Western Atlantic while a little wave rides northeast out of the Southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic.
A weak warm front will move north Monday bringing a chance for some isolated to scattered showers across the eastern CWA. Sea fog will be possible Monday morning as warmer air advects over the cooler waters.
350 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 A low stratus deck overnight with southerly flow caused low temperatures this morning to be slightly warmer than was previously forecasted with temperatures actually slightly warming overnight in places. This will allow a shot of WAA in the lower levels and provide just enough lift to cause some snow and rain over the region late this afternoon.
High pressure has been dominating our area, and will continue to do so through the week. Coupled with daytime instability and dewpoints running in the upper 60s to low 70s, some scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm remain possible this afternoon, unrelated to the cold front washing out. As a cold front washes out to the north, winds and seas will remain benign.
This is also the portion of the forecast area that should be cooler than anywhere else later on today. Temperatures will respond nicely to the southwest surface winds with afternoon highs ranging from around 50 along I-70 to the lower 60s near the Oklahoma border.
409 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 H500 hand analysis map at 00Z showing the bulk of NOAM under a large scale trough with only AK and the the far southeast states under the influence of ridging. Our first trough is still translating across our eastern CWA this morning. Good ascent in the base of this trough with the upper jet making a cyclonic kink in the flow across our southern CWA. The passage of the third trough late this evening through Monday morning will signal a good uptick in precipitation across the region. Once again the colder air aloft in this trough will steepen lapse rates and an increase in snow rates will occur through the late afternoon hours before warm advection begins to kick back in. but most the time they are on the highest peaks.
416 AM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 Short wave trough passing through Colorado will bring some light snow to the Continental Divide early this morning, while winds over the mountains and near most lee slopes become breezy at times into the afternoon. After a midday lull, snowfall chances along the Divide will increase late this afternoon and overnight as next trough approaches, and some pockets of heavier snow may develop over the eastern San Juans toward Mon morning as mid level flow turns more swly. Models don't bring winds very far down the east slopes however, and will keep strongest gusts limited to the higher terrain at this point. Min temps many areas will run just slightly warmer than the past few nights as clouds/winds increase.
/issued 354 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Today and Tonight Enjoy the 'absence of rain' and cooler temperatures today because an unsettled wet pattern and above normal temperatures are likely across the Mid-South for the majority of the week! A post-frontal stratus deck currently blankets much of the Mid-South this AM.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The old cold front in the Gulf of Mex is expected to move back up N and NW as a warm front today and Mon moving a little closer to the Tx coastline. This in combination with the approaching warm front will gradually increase the conv chcs mainly near the lower TX coastline and the offshore waters late Sun into Mon.
/issued 240 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Today a shrtwv trof will pass to the n of the area with an assocd Pacific cold front briefly turning the surface winds to w-nw across SE NM and PB. Otherwise high temps will trend about 7-9 degrees warmer than Sat. More of the same Mon/Tue when the low-level thermal ridge amplifies underneath near zonal mid-level flow, high temps will be 10-17 degrees above normal. By Wed a cold front is likely to slowly backdoor into the area, nearing I-20 by 00Z/Thur.
Some areas of stratus and fog near northwest of I-4 will gradually dissipate into late morning as low level S/SSE flow and daytime heating begins to mix the low levels and allow cloud bases to rise. Warm SE/S low level flow will allow highs to reach the lower 80s coast to mid 80s for the interior with some record highs in jeopardy for Daytona Beach and interior areas.
A cooler, drier airmass is in place over the region and temperatures today will be cooler but still pleasant for mid-January. Highs will range from the lower 50s north to the mid 60s south. This comes as the frontal boundary will begin to lift back north as a warm front. Given this lifting warm front, low temperatures in the Pine Belt won't drop much and remain in the mid 50s, whereas lows in other parts of the forecast area will be in the low to mid 40s. /28/ Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase on Monday from south to north as a warm front moves northward across the area.
315 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery shows the next embedded disturbance approaching through the Four Corners within a broad longwave trough.
Much quieter short-term period in store, with high pressure rushing into the region and allowing light and variable winds.
Quiet for much of the day today as higher pressure briefly fills in behind the low pushing out. there could be a period when this system first pushes in that could produce some freezing drizzle due to a mid level dry layer.
This low deck of stratus should begin to mix out by early afternoon and increasing insolation should allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s by late this afternoon.
QPF does still look to remain light with little moisture to work with; however, we can't entirely rule out the possibility of seeing some freezing drizzle along with snow. This is due to the fact that while forecast soundings show saturation in the DGZ, there is a dry layer below that before becoming saturated again in the lowest 500 ft or so. This dry layer may be shallow enough to keep snow through the column, especially given the strong vertical motion in the low levels, but still would not be surprised to see at least some freezing drizzle. Temperatures are expected to reach the low 30s north of I-70 with mid 30s to low 40s south.
321 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will prevail across central Illinois today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. The storm system that brought the wintry precipitation to central Illinois last evening has departed the region early this morning, while a ridge of high pressure builds eastward toward the Mississippi River. Despite the presence of the high, forecast soundings indicate ample boundary layer moisture remaining trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion today. Thanks to the cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 30s.
646 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 High pressure will move into the region today behind the cold front that pushed through the region last night. It will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy today with high temperatures back to normal for this time of year, reaching the lower to middle 30s. It will trend warmer for the first part of the work week with highs mainly in the 40s.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across the eastern Ozarks early this morning ahead of the area of high pressure. The fog should overall be light, but if any can get a little heavier some pockets of freezing fog is not out of the question, but should be pretty localized this morning. Lows this morning will be in the upper tens to the lower 20s. The low level moisture and the cloud deck are fairly thick, and could take some time to clear this morning. The trough will then move through the region Monday night. A more upper level zonal pattern will setup through mid week, but upper level ridging building over the area by the end of the week.
/issued 315 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020/ Early morning water vapor imagery shows the next embedded disturbance approaching through the Four Corners within a broad longwave trough.
Given the low level veering flow as the upper level stream becomes more (moist) swlys.
There will still be some light snow over the ridges today as a tenuous moisture layer persists under dry subsident air aloft. At some point in the late afternoon or early evening, the wave amplification should shut off the downslope winds and the combo of a little north or east wind and increasing clouds could make it a bit cooler late in the day if that happens soon enough. For Monday into Monday night, a weak upper level trough will bring another round of mainly light snow to the northern mountains, somewhere in the 2-5 inch range. The higher west/southwest facing slopes will continue to have the best chance of snowfall.
409 AM PST Sun Jan 12 2020 A couple of cold fronts will sweep southward through the Central California Interior during the next few days.
523 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. Latest radar imagery shows shower activity diminishing with increasing subsidence behind the a cold front exiting to the east. Temperatures will be much cooler with CAA behind the front with afternoon temperatures cooler than observed early this morning.
411 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 The strong cold front that has caused severe weather across the southeast yesterday is starting to stall in the panhandle as expected. For us that means the ridge is still in control of the area. For Sunday a weak upper level trough will be riding along the ridge and push through Florida. Our next potential cold front won't be arriving until next Sunday. Strong ridging over the area will be sticking around through Sunday and our next work week. A strong ridge over Florida will keep temperatures will above average for this time of year and will keep humidity high too.