Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front is expected to surge through the forecast area tonight and am anticipating an initial brief increase in winds right along the front, generally in the 08z- 12z time frame. Outside of a few flurries the main impact this wave will have will be to keep cooler temps in place through the weekend. Very strong northwest winds and low level wind shear are the main concerns late tonight through Thursday behind a strong cold frontal passage. The lower end of these RH's are once again expected along and especially west of I- 135.
152 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Potent high wind event will continue through today as strong low pressure traverses the region. Secondary impulse will push into the region tonight, supporting sustained strong ll flow and good mixing as the upper trough deepens to the east. Very strong winds behind the cold front will continue across the forecast area tonight through Thursday night.
352 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 Latest sfc obs depict a cold front plunging swd into the TX Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s in the northern Permian Basin to near 70 along the Rio Grande. Friday looks to be a cool and crisp day with highs reaching the lower 50s for much of the area.
Current surface analysis shows cold front barreling southeast, with leading edge now extending from northern TX panhandle through northeast KS. Cold air lags well behind the cold front but lower dew points will spread southeast through the area this afternoon resulting in RH values less than 30% generally from US 75 west. Strong low/mid level flow associated with deep upper low in the Midwest will likely see gusts at or above 40 mph in much of the area Friday afternoon. A weak impulse or two rotating around west side of Midwest upper low may squeeze out some flurries or very light snow across NW AR Friday, but any accumulating snow should remain to our northeast. Fire weather danger remains high Friday despite cooler temps given the strong winds and low RH.
A strong cold front is racing southward across the region. We'll see increasing NWRLY flow aloft along with some sharp pressure rises behind this morning's cold front. A secondary cold front behind a deepening trough to the east will push through our area tomorrow, with strong winds across the southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
535 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A strong cold front was racing southward across Kansas early this morning with associated surge of wind gusts surpassing 50-60mph for several locations. The high wind warning has been expanded and extended through Friday, as this upper level vortex continues to influence the central plains.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be rather seasonable, but certainly cooler than that of recent days. Weak high pressure ridging will be quickly flattened by a quick moving weak weather feature sliding along the Canadian border.
400 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Potent upper level trough was moving east into the Northern/Central Plains. Strong cold front accompanied by a band of snow and wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph was moving through Northeast CO. Skies have cleared, except for lingering low/mid clouds over the higher terrain. Winds decreased since the frontal passage, but were gusting 40 to 50 mph across the high plains. Dry conditions are forecast through Friday with cooler than normal temperatures (highs in the 20s and 30s).
High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will build to the NE over the area today and tonight with clouds clearing in the afternoon. The next cold front will then move through the area later Friday and Friday night, with a few showers possible along it. Drier and cooler high pressure builds into the area behind the front for the weekend.
A mid/upper level low will be deepening as it transitions into the Great Lakes region through the period, sending an associated cold front into South Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, expect a southwesterly to westerly wind lead to much warmer temperatures across the area under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Highs today are forecast to run about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s. Highs on Friday are forecast to range from the low to mid 60s.
456 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Potent high wind event will continue through today as strong low pressure traverses the region. Secondary impulse will push into the region tonight, supporting sustained strong ll flow and good mixing as the upper trough deepens to the east.
243 AM PST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend with mainly light winds, weak to moderate inversions, and mild temperatures. A bit cooler this morning compared to yesterday morning's low temperatures, all thanks to lesser cloud cover and lighter winds. With high pressure large and in charge at least through the weekend, expect light valley winds, periods of mid to high clouds, valley inversions, and above average temperatures during this time.
442 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 A potent trough continues surging southeastward through the central Rockies and high plains early this morning. Strong winds have persisted overnight in the higher terrain behind a cold front. Eventually later today, strong jet stream winds will gradually move eastward as the overall trough shifts toward the midwest. An isolated snow shower or two can not be ruled out in the central mountains this morning, however that will be about is as any lingering moisture with this trough has shifted well east of Colorado.
Quiet overnight with parts of the area remaining above freezing at the current hour. Nighttime RGB does show some fog along the TN/AL border spreading northward, but luckily most are above freezing in those areas. A weak upper-level ridge will pass by this afternoon. While temps aloft will be below freezing, surface temps and low- level temps will still be too warm for anything other than a cold rain. Friday will be cooler than today with much more seasonal temps.
Current surface analysis places low over southern Manitoba, with cold front exiting North Dakota pushing into Minnesota. Upper level analysis shows this system nearly stacked, with upper low over the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. For today, strong winds continue to be the highlight. In the meantime, a secondary surge of cooler air dives down through the area, re-enforcing the strong winds into the evening.
Winds shift from the SW tomorrow along with increasing shower chances ahead of the next cold frontal boundary. This is due to some drier air in the mid-levels begins to move in with a weak high pressure building over the Florida peninsula today. As the rainfall begins to exit the region lingering cloud cover and northerly wind will keep temperatures a little cooler than normal today. A deep mid-level trough will be moving over the northern CONUS and into the Northeast. A cold front will be sweeping across the SE US and down the Florida peninsula late Friday. A cyclonic flow regime should encompass the eastern CONUS as a closed upper circulation migrates through the lower Great Lakes.
Aside from the fog this morning, we'll see high pressure persist over the forecast area today. High temperatures will be well warmer than normal with some highs pushing into the upper 50's along the coast and in the valleys west of the Cascades. These high temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. We'll then see a cold front with very little moisture move through the forecast area mid day Friday.
Dense fog this morning should clear out to partly cloudy skies with warmer daytime temperatures. Cooler nights are also to be expected as subsidence settles into the area for the next few days. High pressure ridging persists for the immediate forecast period. The ridging regime and subsidence will bring temperatures down over the next few evenings. Clearing and warmer daytime trends will be countered with the occasional cold front, the first of which should clip just north of the CWA Friday in the late afternoon.
640 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 Weak low pressure will quickly depart the area this morning.
231 AM PST Thu Jan 14 2021 Thursday will feature a good deal of sunshine, cooler temperatures, and light winds.
The cold front is currently pushing across Kansas and into the central Plains as of 3 AM, but the larger trough is slow moving. Winds will be especially gusty across northern Johnson County, where the dynamics remain in place to promote keeping the High Wind Warning through 5 PM today.
634 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure ridging increasing today into Friday, with a cold front bringing a brief chance of showers Friday night. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s this morning with consistent light southwest winds. Skies are clear above any fog layer as a weak upper level ridge is building into the region.
Dry weather and a warming trend is then expected before low pressure returns rain and snow to the region Friday through the weekend. Today will be warmer than average with strong warm advection as brief ridging settles in ahead of a deep Great Lakes trough. Cloud cover will continue to persist on Friday ahead of aforementioned Great Lakes trough. Precipitation type will likely begin as snow in high elevations and a mix elsewhere, with warming temperature much of the region will transition to all rain before changing back to snow as a cold front passes Friday evening. Snow accumulation looks to be amount to 1-2 inches in the higher elevations, with trace to 1 inch elsewhere. Restrictions are likely Fri thru Mon with a crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.
312 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A strong cold front was racing southward across Kansas early this morning with associated surge of wind gusts surpassing 50-60mph for several locations. The high wind warning has been expanded and extended through Friday, as this upper level vortex continues to influence the central plains.
We'll see increasing NWRLY flow aloft along with some sharp pressure rises behind this morning's cold front. A secondary cold front behind a deepening trough to the east will push through our area tomorrow, with strong winds across the southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough is moving east across the northern and central plains this morning, with a strong cold front driving south through southwestern Kansas and into the northern Texas Panhandle area. This cold front will move into our northern counties between 6 and 8 AM this morning, likely making it to the I-10 corridor before Noon.
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 Weak low pressure will quickly depart the area this morning.
An upper low over the southern Canadian Rockies will drop into the middle and upper MS River valley through Friday morning, deepening in the process. The upper lower weakens on Friday, but guidance suggests that there may be enough lift to produce some flurries across the northern portions of the area again.
302 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 A potent trough continues surging southeastward through the central Rockies and high plains early this morning. Strong winds have persisted overnight in the higher terrain behind a cold front. Eventually later today, strong jet stream winds will gradually move eastward as the overall trough shifts toward the midwest. An isolated snow shower or two can not be ruled out in the central mountains this morning, however that will be about is as any lingering moisture with this trough has shifted well east of Colorado.
Confidence in the high winds has increased enough that we were able to convert the High Wind Watch for Friday into a High Wind Warning. The overall strongest winds within the High Wind Warning will probably be across the western portions of the area generally along and west of Highway 281. We have continued to go with the lower dewpoints from the CONSMOS given that we are expecting good mixing this afternoon. The wind is obviously going to be an issue everywhere but the Red Flag Warning will just focus on our southern areas where the RH values will also be the lowest. The high winds will be a problem throughout the TAF valid period.
Sfc analysis shows an elongated ridge of high pres acrs the NW Gulf, with southwesterly winds acrs the region. This will send a cold front, currently acrs S NE/NW KS, into the region by late this aftn.
Mixed layer winds off Bufkit continue to indicate values of 50 to 65 knots, so will keep the High Wind Warning in place across the west and central CWA this morning through the day Friday when the gradient finally begins to relax as high pressure approaches. As far as the eastern CWA is concerned, looking at a messier situation as wrap around snow on the back side of the low to the east develops by this afternoon and continues into Friday afternoon. Snowfall amounts east of the James River Valley look to generally be in the 2 to 5 inch range, with the highest amounts expected along the west side of the Coteau. High temperatures today will be in the 30s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 20s.
Speedy NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains through Friday -- between a pronounced upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast and an amplifying upper level low over the Upper Midwest/Upper MS River Valley. Low-level/mid-level flow will begin to decrease late Friday afternoon as the upper low progresses eastward into the OH Valley and the MSLP /height/ gradient over the High Plains begins to relax.
While an exiting jet streak and passing mid level trough will support some wet snow showers across the Southern Tier during the first half of today, the bulk of the forecast area can expect a fairly uneventful day featuring plenty of cloud cover. Passing ridge tonight will support fair dry weather. Warmer air ahead of the system will allow the ensuing pcpn to fall mainly as rain, with the bulk of the pcpn falling west of the Genesee valley.
455 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure ridging increasing into Friday, with a cold front bringing a brief chance of showers Friday night. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s this morning with consistent light southwest winds. Skies are clear above any fog layer as a weak upper level ridge is building into the region.
Today Through Friday Night A cold front was approaching from the Plains early this morning. Looking aloft, low pressure will deepen over Illinois on Friday, and that will result in more clouds in northern and central Arkansas.
428 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 Current surface analysis places low over southern Manitoba, with cold front exiting North Dakota pushing into Minnesota. Upper level analysis shows this system nearly stacked, with upper low over the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. For today, strong winds continue to be the highlight. In the meantime, a secondary surge of cooler air dives down through the area, re-enforcing the strong winds into the evening.
Otherwise, another dry cold front will push into the region from the north shifting the surface winds around from the SW-NW late in the period. This downsloping flow from the higher terrain from neighboring Mexico will result in a warm afternoon, with temperatures well above normal. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s under a mix of sun and clouds. The dry cold front is expected to approach the northern ranchlands early this evening and push off the lower Texas coast around midnight.
403 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 The long anticipated cold front is just entering NW MO at 09z. All indications are like previously thought, the cold front will come blasting across the CWA today as the upstream upper trof digs southeastward into the central U. Increasing large scale ascent with the aforementioned short wave trof along with low-mid level frontogenetic forcing should result in a growing band of rain across western MO late this morning, with this band increasing in coverage and intensity as it moves east across the CWA this afternoon. The best focus for any precipitation this evening should be across northeast MO and west central IL in association with a weak short wave rotating cyclonically about the upper low deepening across IA.
332 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 Subtropical jet will begin to bring some moisture and large scale isentopic lift to the northern gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front. The cold front moves through overnight bringing all of this well away from the northern gulf.
426 AM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Potent upper level trough was moving east into the Northern/Central Plains. Strong cold front accompanied by a band of snow and wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph was moving through Northeast CO. Skies have cleared, except for lingering low/mid clouds over the higher terrain. Winds decreased since the frontal passage, but were gusting 40 to 50 mph across the high plains. Dry conditions are forecast through Friday with cooler than normal temperatures (highs in the 20s and 30s).
523 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough is moving east across the northern and central plains this morning, with a strong cold front driving south through southwestern Kansas and into the northern Texas Panhandle area. This cold front will move into our northern counties between 6 and 8 AM this morning, likely making it to the I-10 corridor before Noon.
Pre-frontal trof in SE NM far NW PB resulting in nw wind shift which will move s thru mid morning before turning n-ne with FROPA 14Z-15Z HOB-MAF. /issued 352 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Latest sfc obs depict a cold front plunging swd into the TX Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s in the northern Permian Basin to near 70 along the Rio Grande. Friday looks to be a cool and crisp day with highs reaching the lower 50s for much of the area.
955 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure over the area will bring near normal temperatures today. A strong cold front will cross the area Friday, bringing showers.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify along the west coast today before being knocked down by a system on Friday.
This downsloping flow from the higher terrain from neighboring Mexico will result in a warm afternoon, with temperatures well above normal. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s under a mix of sun and clouds. The dry cold front is expected to approach the northern ranchlands early this evening and push off the lower Texas coast around midnight.
Latest MSAS 3 hr pressure change analysis signifies strong pressure rises assocd w/a cold front which is currently located between KLBB and KAMA. Pre-frontal trof in SE NM far NW PB resulting in nw wind shift which will move s thru mid morning before turning n-ne with FROPA 14Z-15Z HOB-MAF. /issued 352 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Latest sfc obs depict a cold front plunging swd into the TX Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s in the northern Permian Basin to near 70 along the Rio Grande. Friday looks to be a cool and crisp day with highs reaching the lower 50s for much of the area.
The High Wind Warnings will be in effect from a Roundup to Sheridan line but Billings will not be in a warning today as speeds west of that line will be lower. Area is between an elongating trough over the northern plains east of the area and a developing ridge west over the Pacific Northwest keeping a strong jet stream over the area. Temperatures will be much cooler today but humidity will be considerably lower so any fire activity will be working with drier conditions. Upstream ridge begins positively tilting into the area late tonight and early Friday and this allows leeside troughing to develop Friday. The ridge gets flattened by a fast moving wave from northwest to southeast and this will cut off the gap flow winds overnight Friday and bring a band of showers across the area.
Other than a few high clouds spilling into NorCal over the amplifying ridge along the West Coast, skies are clear across the region. Otherwise, dry and mild weather is expected across the region through the weekend as high pressure dominates.
North winds behind the cold front have increased to advisory levels across these areas, and will continue into this afternoon.
Currently, double barreled mid/upper level low stretching from far south central Canada south/southeast across the eastern Dakotas into the lower Mississippi Valley region. Strongest gusts over the higher terrain of the southwest where Bowman, Hettinger, and an elevated RAWS site east of Mott continue to gust between 65 and 75 mph, thanks in part to the tail end of a 700mb jet still over my southwest with 60-68kt winds still aloft and where we are mixing up to 6-7K ft agl. The higher winds across the southwest should also come down a bit as the low level jet moves off to the south. Will keep the high wind warning as is, no changes with this product issuance. Double barreled low breaks apart with a large closed low developing over the Mississippi Valley tonight, and a northern wave dropping south across central ND.
Main purpose for the morning update was to remove the wording for the freezing fog advisory since it was allowed to expire at 10am. Still had a few spots that were sitting right at the freezing mark at 10am, while also showing dense fog. Morning runs of the HRRR and other high res guidance showed ever so slightly cooler temperatures in those areas. Will update the ZFP and HWO to remove freezing fog wording and that should do it for the morning update. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 37 50 31 41 / 0 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 37 47 30 38 / 0 30 30 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 36 47 30 38 / 0 30 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 31 44 28 36 / 0 40 50 10 50.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilting trough encompassing the Upper Midwest.
Potent upper level trough was moving east into the Northern/Central Plains. Strong cold front accompanied by a band of snow and wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph was moving through Northeast CO. Skies have cleared, except for lingering low/mid clouds over the higher terrain. Winds decreased since the frontal passage, but were gusting 40 to 50 mph across the high plains. Dry conditions are forecast through Friday with cooler than normal temperatures (highs in the 20s and 30s).
The boundary-layer across the Rolling Plains should remain well-mixed above a very shallow surface inversion overnight as an impressive belt of northwesterly mid- and high-level flow continues to progress overhead as a powerful cyclone moves across the Upper Midwest. There will be a gradual decrease in the intensity of the winds from northeast-to-southwest as a broad 1028 mb surface anticyclone will be centered along the Texas/New Mexico state line, leading to a fairly pleasant day across the southwestern South Plains compared to the northeastern areas.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon into this evening even as a cold front moves through the deep south Texas late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, another dry cold front will push into the region from the north shifting the surface winds around from the SW-NW late in the period. This downsloping flow from the higher terrain from neighboring Mexico will result in a warm afternoon, with temperatures well above normal. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s under a mix of sun and clouds. The dry cold front is expected to approach the northern ranchlands early this evening and push off the lower Texas coast around midnight.
/Issued 1053 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Areas of freezing fog across far northwest Georgia will continue to erode over the next hour or so as insolation increases and temperatures increase in response. Have massaged temperatures a bit in the near term, but highs are still on track to reach the lower to mid-50s across the northern CWA and upper 50s to around 60 farther south, under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Have issued freezing fog advisory for 2 counties and a special weather statement for several other far north and NW counties. By tonight, SW flow aloft on the periphery of the large upper low increases upward motion from DPVA and low level warm advection. Temps should remain above freezing for the duration of the event tonight and Friday, even at the highest elevations.