Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies will remain sunny today as temperatures climb into the lower and middle 60s. There could be enough lift for isolated showers over the higher terrain of Steuben and Bradford counties. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with low to mid 60s. Frost advisory probably not needed with temperatures again several degrees warmer than this morning. Friday: Again a little warmer with highs mid to upper 60s. For the most part, high pressure will be in control this weekend, bringing a mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures.
The lower atmosphere remains dry, so expect gusty winds to accompany any storms that are able to develop.
The persistent high pressure system to our north will begin to relinquish its hold on our weather Friday, allowing winds to become more east to southeast.
That troughing will also hold temperature 5 to 10 degrees under the calculated normals.
Is this a a short- lived gradient associated with the trough shedding from South Florida, a relic cold pool, or a propagating outflow boundary? It should be noted, low- level speed convergence would be rather robust if this scenario plays out.
111 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. High pressure is off to our NW today, with cool N/NE flow across the local area. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. Northerly winds 8-12 kts this afternoon will become light and variable overnight as weak high pressure moves offshore, and then winds will become northerly again Friday morning through the remainder of the TAF period.
306 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 305 PM CDT High pressure continues to create fair conditions with light winds. The warming trend continues with slightly warmer temperatures expected Friday as our 850 mb temperatures increased from around 2 C to 4 C, or even warmer to the west.
1126 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude and transitory ridge will move through the Rocky Mountain region through tomorrow. This will usher in temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above normal today and slightly warmer tomorrow. The jet cresting the leading edge of this ridge will be over the northern mountains this afternoon providing the weakest ascent.
Northerly flow continued as high pressure settle further into the area. This setup will make for a cool night with lows in the lower 50s north to the mid to upper 50s as one travels down to the I10 corridor. Alexandria will probably fall into the upper 50s with the rest of the area in the lower to mid 60s.
1221 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 Expansive high pressure across the Great Lakes region will maintain light winds through the TAF period. The dry ambient airmass associated with this high will sustain mainly clear skies other than few to scattered high based clouds this afternoon across the southern TAF sites where subtle low level convergence is occurring between the glacial ridge and marine areas. The combination of ridges will reinforce the dry airmass in place resulting in mainly clear/sunny skies through Friday night.
/Issued 720 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021/ The upper flow becomes more northwest during the short term as the upper ridge builds into the eastern states. 41 High pressure remains in control to start heading into the weekend which will maintain dry conditions across the area.
Temperatures will be warmer today with highs pushing into the 70s over northeast Colorado. Only a few minor changes for today as warmer air moves over Colorado. The low level moisture will mix out, though there could still be a few hundred joules of CAPE. Only other changes were a few patches of fog around Limon and in Weld county in the early morning, and a little more wind over the ridges.
Generally quiet short term period as surface ridging slides across the region. High temperatures will remain below normal on Friday, in the lower to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. By tomorrow night with the increase in moisture, will expect low temps several degrees warmer, in the lower to middle 70s.
1032 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A warming trend continues today w/ rising heights aloft associated with broad & flat upper-level ridging. This will definitely not be a dry pattern as the CWA will remain on the northern fringe of the building ridge, leading to continued active west-to-northwest flow in the mid and upper levels. More widespread convection will be likely on Friday as the upper-level ridge slowly breaks down ahead of a deepening western US trough.
229 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 The upper level trough axis is pushing through the Southeast this afternoon, as displayed on water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure will overspread the Midwest with drier air filtering into the TN Valley tonight. Fair weather cumulus this afternoon will dissipate shortly after sunset, allowing radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 40s tonight.
142 PM PDT Thu May 13 2021 A low pressure system from the northwest will move slowly southeastward across California for the weekend. This system will bring cooler weather, along with gusty west winds across our mountains and deserts.
1000 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will spread over the Mid Atlantic tonight and keep conditions cool through Friday morning. Cloud cover has been persistent throughout the evening as an upper level trough approaches from the west. With high pressure building overhead later tonight, it will allow clouds to gradually diminish well after midnight. As the upper level trough crosses overhead during Friday, clouds will return, and a chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms will exist along and just west of the Blue Ridge. Orographical lift and diurnal heating will combine with any lift from this upper level trough to produce the shower and thunderstorm activity.
VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control. Slight chances of showers confined to the high elevations of East Tennessee this afternoon. Discussion: Upper level low seen in WV imagery continues to rotate in the Ohio River Valley this afternoon with several vort lobes moving through west-northwest flow. The upper lvl energy moving through the region today could allow for some shower development across the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains but coverage should remain isolated to scattered. Otherwise, dry weather can be expected tonight with overnight lows slightly warmer than last night but still cool with lows several degrees below climo. The trend of dry weather will continue on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the valley location, and low 50's to low 60s across the higher terrain.
Have moved the lower cigs a few hours earlier than the MOS guidance indicates for the I-35 TAFs. Surface dewpoints should remain in the mid to upper 50s until the south winds return Friday morning, so do not expect to see the low cigs mix out as fast as the MOS guidances depict. A broad, relatively uniform upper pattern of weak ridging over the western CONUS and troughing east will modify very little over the next 36 hours. As high pressure moves eastward Friday, winds will gradually veer to the SE allowing for a warmer, but still below normal day.
Winds will make more of an appearance Friday, as high pressure continues to drop southeast of the area and the surface pressure gradient begins to increase. High pressure will maintain its control of our weather with another pleasant day on Friday.
207 PM PDT Thu May 13 2021 Slightly cooler today as onshore flow returns.
Otherwise, skies are partially clearing as weak high pressure begins moving in from the west. A broad trough looks to linger yet shift slightly eastward.
Slow moving cold frontal boundary will slide into the southern peninsula. The cold frontal boundary will shift southward into the southern peninsula tonight.
High pressure will bring with it above average temperatures going into the weekend.
954 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Under primarily clear skies, temperatures have dropped off into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the typically cooler valley locations and near the I-65 corridor. The end result looks to be cooler temperatures near and west of the I-65 corridor. Further east, temperatures should remain a bit warmer, in the mid to upper 40s due to the advection of dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s from Georgia via the easterly flow late.
631 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Surface and upper-level high pressure to maintain dry conditions across the region through the terminal forecast period ending 15/00Z. Surface winds will gradually veer to southeast by the afternoon, while northwesterly flow aloft continues ahead of an upper ridge moving through the Eastern Rockies.
555 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight and remains in place through Friday night.
Skies continue to clear over the forecast area as cooler and drier air moves south over the Southeast. The base of a deeply reflected mid- and upper trough is currently moving through the region.
The highest chance for a shower tomorrow will be across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri.
Anticipate another day of high temperatures reaching triple digits on Friday over the lower deserts. The approach of a low pressure system over the weekend will lead to breezy to windy conditions and a cooling trend.
651 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will provide light winds through Friday with the associated dry air mass also resulting in mainly clear skis with just few-sct high based diurnal cumulus.
Rain chances increase tonight as the weak upper wave over the central Dakotas, associated with the higher level moisture seen on water vapor imagery, moves into western MN. Though the greatest chance of rain will exist near the nose of the LLJ, 1000-500mb RHs are in excess of 80% along this weak upper trough. To the west over eastern SoDak and to the east over western WI, more sunshine will allow highs to again reach into the low 70s.
532 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude ridge remains over the area this afternoon with some cumulus forming over the higher ridges/mountains.
745 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will spread over the Mid Atlantic tonight and keep conditions cool through Friday morning. Cloud cover has been persistent for the past few hours as an upper level trough approaches from the west. With high pressure building overhead tonight, it will allow skies to eventually clear after midnight, but the timing of this clearing has been slowed down in this update. As the upper level trough crosses overhead during Friday, clouds will return, and a chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms will exist along and just west of the Blue Ridge. Orographical lift and diurnal heating will combine with any lift from this upper level trough to produce the shower and thunderstorm activity.
840 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will spread over the Mid Atlantic tonight and keep conditions cool through Friday morning. Cloud cover has been persistent for the past several hours as an upper level trough approaches from the west. With high pressure building overhead later tonight, it will allow clouds to gradually diminish well after midnight. As the upper level trough crosses overhead during Friday, clouds will return, and a chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms will exist along and just west of the Blue Ridge. Orographical lift and diurnal heating will combine with any lift from this upper level trough to produce the shower and thunderstorm activity.
Clouds will increase from the northwest overnight as a weak upper level trough approaches.
This is partially due to the outer fringe of broad high pressure over the eastern United States spreading southwards. In addition, the boundary layer is quite fairly moist with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. The combination of high pressure spreading southwards, along with earlier day time heating over South Florida and convective outflows has brought winds up across most Keys waters.
The upper level trough axis is pushing through the Southeast this afternoon, as displayed on water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure will overspread the Midwest with drier air filtering into the TN Valley tonight. Fair weather cumulus this afternoon will dissipate shortly after sunset, allowing radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 40s tonight.
630 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 305 PM CDT High pressure continues to create fair conditions with light winds. The warming trend continues with slightly warmer temperatures expected Friday as our 850 mb temperatures increased from around 2 C to 4 C, or even warmer to the west.
Temperatures inland will be slightly below normal Friday through the weekend, as low pressure moves in and deepens the marine layer. On Friday, expect somewhat cooler temperatures for most areas, but with continued very dry conditions on the east side of the mountains and the deserts. Onshore flow will continue to increase as a series of low pressure systems move through California.
459 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from central MT into eastern CO with weak low developing near KCPR. Td/s in the lower 30s to lower 40s are combining with cold air aloft to produce about 500J/kg SBCAPE ahead of these surface boundaries.
A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend.
144 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Cool high pressure continues through Saturday.
345 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will build from the Central Great Lakes to the eastern seaboard through Saturday. A ridge will extend westward to the Great Lakes while a warm front sets up across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer by the middle of the week as an upper level ridge build overhead. High pressure is centered near Chicago this morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies.
148 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 A large area of high pressure over the Midwest will build overhead by Friday then continue to the East Coast by Saturday.
With cold temperatures aloft from a 700 hPA trough, a 500-300 hPA jet streak, and steep mid- level lapse rates, expect to see a few thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail. For the rest of today, expect highs to range from the low 70s across the western forecast area to the upper 50s across parts of southwest MN and northwest IA.
A weak upper level ridge will move across the area over the next couple of days increasing temps about 10 degrees but they will still be a little below normal. Increasing instability on the back side of the ridge axis will reach our western CWA on Friday and slowly move to the eastern counties on Saturday. This combined with daytime heating will bring rain chances west of the Pecos River Friday, spreading to the entire area on Saturday when the highest PoPs shift east to the eastern most counties.
1123 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude ridge remains over the area this afternoon with some cumulus forming over the higher ridges/mountains.
A high pressure system was over the area and will continue to drift southeast.
Storms will develop across the High Plains and spread eastward overnight. A composite weak cold front / outflow boundary is likely to become near stationary near the OK / KS border Saturday afternoon. The boundary location will be key in focusing the higher precip chances.
This was bringing drier and cooler air into the area, with a refreshingly nice and cool night on tap. IR satellite imagery shows the low cloud deck that has lingered through much of the day is gradually dissipating and the area should be mostly clear by midnight. Northerly flow continued as high pressure settle further into the area. This setup will make for a cool night with lows in the lower 50s north to the mid to upper 50s as one travels down to the I10 corridor. Alexandria will probably fall into the upper 50s with the rest of the area in the lower to mid 60s.
320 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail across the region today into Saturday.
1157 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will main generally clear skies and light winds over the area this forecast period. Highs within this environment arriving within the warmer side of the model guidance envelop and will continue to edge the forecast in this direction. This translates into a pleasant stretch of weather, as highs peak in the lower 70s and a sufficiently mixed boundary layer maintains manageable humidity.
Some of this activity may linger into the morning hours today across portions of south central and southeast Kansas with redevelopment likely across the high plains this afternoon and evening.
1028 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from central MT into eastern CO with weak low developing near KCPR. Td/s in the lower 30s to lower 40s are combining with cold air aloft to produce about 500J/kg SBCAPE ahead of these surface boundaries.
Upper/surface ridging and the associated dry air mass remains in control of the local weather. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly sharp mid level ridge axis draped across the Great Lakes, extending westward toward Iowa. Upper ridge axis will continue to sag slowly to the south overnight, potentially allowing a bit of cloud cover to slide over the ridge and into northwest parts of the area later tonight. Northern Michigan will be between long wave troughs to our north (central Canada) and south (central states) through the period. No big change in the pattern with troughs remaining to our north and south with increasing ridging aloft over northern Michigan.
Last night, the LLJ initiated an MCS over the High Plains, which is now moving into eastern KS. The low level jet will be a bit further east tonight, kicking off another round of convection from central KS to perhaps as far northeast as NW MO.
The region remains under the influence of a sprawling area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley with deep-layer northerly flow.
Relatively tranquil weather is on tap for the short term period, with mostly dry and cooler than normal conditions expected. Low and mid level lapse rates will steepen a bit as this occurs which, when combined with weak upslope flow into the higher terrain, will likely result in some isolated to scattered showers over the mountains of southwest Virginia and eastern Tennessee.
Lows tonight will be warmer than current with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. High temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday and from the mid 60s to the low 70s. For the most part, high pressure will be in control this weekend, bringing a mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures.
As the high pressure axis moves overhead Friday, lessening northerly winds and the dry air will aid in warmer temperatures with highs climbing into the mid and upper 70s.
High pressure will remain largely in place today as clear skies this morning will slowly warm into the day. A weak, positively tilted, ern CONUS, to wrn Atlantic longwave trough with ridging ovr the WRN CONUS is projected to maintain varying degrees of nw flow ovr the Upr OH into Saturday night. Temperature in this time frame wl moderate to near, but just shy of the calculated-normals as the overall atmospheric columns warms/trough fills.
Below seasonal temperatures are expected through the Near Term, though will see an uptick as upper subsidence increases as the upper ridge approaches. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s tonight will rise into the low to mid 50s Friday night.
300 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 (Issued 300 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021) Today through Saturday: The influence of gradually departing high pressure will prevail today.
Upper level ridge will be slow to push east into the Eastern Great Lakes today, providing another mostly sunny day. 5 degrees warmer (-7. None-the-less, with the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis back across lake Michigan, looks unlikely showers will develop over southeast Michigan with limited cape (surface capes under 200 J/kg) indicated.
Many areas were reporting calm winds as of 2 am, allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 40s. Raised highs a few degrees today especially in the eastern half given the lower dewpoints this morning compared to model values, and where more sunshine is expected.
Max POPs are in the 15-25% range over along the higher terrain from the Laurel Highlands southward into the mtns of MD/WV. Warmer temps aloft should also help to limit coverage of shower activity. 24hrMaxTChange trends +2-4F warmer than yesterday, but still a shade on the cool side of climo with highs in the mid 60s NW to low 70s SE.
Lows tonight will be warmer than current with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. High temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday and from the mid 60s to the low 70s. At the surface a relatively dry air mass with a weak high pressure in place will help keep conditions mostly quiet with the exception of some afternoon and early evening showers and weak storms.
250 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 After this morning's clouds thin out high temps will be 5-10 degrees warmer than Thu and there is expected to be a secondary mid-level theta-e ridge axis in proximity to the mtns. Sun is also likely to be one of the warmer day of the forecast with low to mid 90s for highs in the wrn PB. If so this would tend to diminish convective concerns Tue PM? In wake of low Wed convective potential is minimized again possibly returning Thu with approach of a minor shrtwv trof. NBM high temp spreads are suggesting a mix of below to above normal high temps Tue onward and we have generally went with the cooler side.
(Today and tonight) Early morning satellite imagery shows patchy low clouds moving into the region, and with moist, southerly low level flow increasing, expect the low clouds to expand in coverage through the morning. Today, a weak upper level ridge will move across West Central Texas today, and a strong capping inversion will likely keep any storms from developing today and tonight. The 850 mb thermal ridge will warm significantly today, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 15-18 C (about 4-5 C warmer than yesterday), and so there should be pretty decent warming this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows tonight in the low 60s.
High pressure currently centered over the Ohio Valley remains in control over our area through the short term period. Clear skies, light winds, and a dry air mass tonight will result in another night of good radiational cooling with many of the typically cooler locations back down in the 40s.
214 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 Unsettled flow pattern will persist through most of the weekend with mean upper troughing over the region. Splitting upper trough will shift east Sat, with a closed low settling into the SW CONUS.
Upper troughing continues over the region, with 500mb temps in the -20 to -22 C range. Warmer and drier for Saturday, but weak surface pattern should keep winds light and fire weather less of a problem.
The highest chance for a shower tomorrow will be across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. An increase in showers and storms looks likely Saturday night as the low level jet sets up again and an additional wave moves into the area.
Another mild day is on tap as temperatures continue to slowly trend up with widespread highs in the low to mid 70s.
335 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Mid-level troughing over the area will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the short term period. While many areas will see a lull in precipitation overnight into Saturday, the troughing pattern remaining in place over us warrants 20-30 POPS through Saturday.