Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1156 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front shifted through southern Missouri overnight which forced a few showers over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 60s out by Fort Scott to the low 80s in the West Plains region.
244 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 (Tonight and Friday) As of mid afternoon, a weak cold front was just entering extreme northern portions of the Big Country. The NAM continues to be the cooler model, with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 80s across far southern sections. The GFS is considerably warmer and has highs in the 80s areawide.
Low clouds behind southward advancing cold front have moved further into the area anticipated. /Issued 417 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front has pushed into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and extends from near Rogers to Okmulgee and southwest to the OKC metro.
Winds will become calm and then start to increase from the southeast as the high shifts east. Still, believe there will be breaks allowing temps to fall to near freezing in most areas tonight. Friday night an upper low will be approaching from the west and will begin to bring some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region as well. The cool and active pattern remains in place as the next upper low moves into the region. Cold front pushing in during Sat aftn. The upper low will lift towards the Great Lakes during the day on Sun, with some wrap around pcpn a distinct possibility over mainly NW MN. Expect cigs to continue to rise today as the sun works on the low level moisture.
Next upper trough approaches the area Friday and swings across Friday evening. Favorable setup for strong winds over western areas especially the Arlington area so have opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch to warning there starting late tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, do expect southeasterly winds to increase through the overnight to keep most temperatures in the low 40s.
257 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a large mean-layer anticyclone over the southeastern United States. An upper-low drifting west through the Bay of Campeche is west of a large upper-level anticyclone over the Western Caribbean.
An upper level low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest will generate an increasingly warm southwest flow across Utah today. This low pressure will move east across the Northern Rockies Friday. An associated weak cold front will generate scattered showers across far northern Utah Friday, while ushering in slightly below average temperatures heading into the weekend. An upper trough currently situated along the Pacific Coast will move inland today and tonight, eventually ejecting northeast through the northern Rockies Friday through Friday night.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather is anticipated for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes.
223 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Upper-level ridging was over the CWA per water vapor images and the RAP model analysis. As an upper-level trough over the West Coast approaches the CWA tonight and Friday, a strong low-level jet stream (up to 50 kt) will develop over the CWA. The upper trough will swing through the CWA Friday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with some snow to the Black Hills and northeastern WY (amounts 1 inch or less).
320 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon with large temperature gradient across the region.
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will end this evening with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is anticipated for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes.
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front that moved through this morning will continue to bring poor flying conditions for the next 24 hours or so. Some improvement at KLBB is expected late this afternoon possibly into VFR territory as the low cloud deck attempts to dissipate. /issued 422 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ A cold front had made it through the central TX Panhandle as of 8Z, with temps in the 50s behind it, upper 60s to 70s ahead. The high pressure off to our east has really taken on the appearance of a pancake over the SE U.
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front will sweep across the area today. However, there will be a slight warm up over the weekend before another cold front moves through the area. A cold front will move into the northwest counties late this morning and progress across the area through the afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight with the center of the high moving into the Great Lakes on Friday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Broad area of stratus is gradually eroding from the southwest as drier air from an approaching area of high pressure arrives. The forecast challenge for the overnight is the extent to the erosion of the cloud cover and impacts on overnight low temperatures as the high pressure system centers over Iowa and Minnesota. Temperatures this morning under the high across portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska were in the low to mid 30s. The recent rainfall will still create higher low level moisture near surface which could lead to a bit warmer temperatures but result in fog development. The area of high pressure will push east on Friday. The low level jet will increase Friday night to near 50 kts with elevated showers and thunderstorms developing and moving east across Iowa.
101 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Mid-level heights will rebound today into tonight in the wake of a strong upper low tracking into the Great Lakes, and downstream from an amplifying trough over the western CONUS.
/Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA/ Despite relatively dry air in place across the area, a few showers have been able to develop across nrn MS and ern AR around the wrn periphery of the upper ridge. A cold front draped across srn/central MO and srn IL will continue to make its way swd tonight, as the upper trof over the Great Lakes forces the upper ridge s and w. This cold front will bring some relief from the near-record temperatures that have characterized early October across the Mid South thus far.
236 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Satellite imagery currently shows an upper level trough of low pressure spinning off the coast of Washington and British Columbia.
331 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The cold front that entered the area yesterday evening and brought heavy rain to northwest Oklahoma overnight and this morning has now mostly cleared the area, leaving a cooler and drier airmass in its wake. Friday will be a transition day as the cold front begins to lift north again as a warm front in response to lee cyclogenesis ahead of the next western US trough. Some indications that stratus may try to hold on through the morning, which may delay the scouring of the surface inversion and slow the northward progression of the warm front.
A cold front is approaching HOB and CNM where a wind shift to the NE is expected shortly.
Upper high remains over the mid-south once again today, but a weak cool front is lurking just northwest. A cold front will move across the area during this taf cycle.
The strong upper level ridge remains centered across the Southeast U. There is a weakness beneath the ridge across the western Gulf and South Texas that will move west through the short-term. Farther north, a cold front this afternoon stretched from northwest Texas into south-central Oklahoma. Winds backing more easterly, combined with the aforementioned weakness aloft beneath the ridge, may also allow for slightly better coverage of isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon across the central and eastern CWA. Temperatures a degree or two cooler Friday, but still well above climatology.
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The stratus cloud layer over the region will continue to dissipate as large-scale subsidence increases in response to the upper-level ridging over the Northern Plains.
253 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Broad high pressure remains aloft over the southeast today, but will slowly move out over the Atlantic Ocean and weaken through the weekend as a trough moves into the central plains.
222 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front will pass across the region tonight. Ahead of the front will be a few showers before the cooler and drier air moves in.
The next upper wave will be pushing into the Rockies on Friday, while the low level flow begins to return the Gulf moisture across the region as the ridge shifts east of the area.
An upper level ridge axis is centered over the Southeastern United States with the Arklatex on the southwestern periphery of this axis. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Mid-South back through Central Arkansas and the Red River Valley in Oklahoma and North Central Texas. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the lower to middle 90s where rain has not occurred yet, and 80s elsewhere. Short term models including CAM solutions suggest overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish through the night and into Friday as the cold front gradually pushes south through this period.
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Much cooler temperatures and drier conditions will continue this evening and into the weekend, bringing Fall-like conditions to the region.
156 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Record heat is forecast again today due to the influence of the upper ridge.
With temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s this afternoon, there is a possibility that with less clouds overnight, areas of freezing temperatures could occur across the northern counties and also from the Turtle Mountains south through the James River Valley. An upper low with an associated surface cold front will enter western North Dakota Friday evening.
This is likely in part due to the short wave propagating around the upper level ridge this afternoon and into the evening hours before pushing off to the northwest. Dew point depressions look to lower to one to three degrees, and overnight low temperatures will also fall into the low 70s to 80s. Shower and thunderstorm coverage for tomorrow looks similar to what we have seen today, as weak disturbances continue to rotate around the region of high pressure placed over the SE US. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s once again.
A bit of moisture will accompany the trough over extreme northeast UT and northwest CO Friday night, producing only isolated high mountain showers. The moisture plume between the PACNW trough and Gulf of Mexico ridge will wave northwest Friday as the trough approaches. Believe most of the moisture will remain southeast of the area and the precipitation will be on the low side of the model range.
124 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
102 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 /18Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will move slowly south across the terminals through tonight.
A trough pushing into the west coast this afternoon has helped increase winds across central Nevada where winds are gusting between 25-35 mph across much of the National Security Site.
Cold front is currently across middle TN and up through eastern KY in a southwest to northeast orientation. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 83 55 78 / 0 0 0 10.
Upper high remains in place over the Great Smoky Mountains with an upper trough moving over the Pacific Northwest coast, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. At the surface, cool and damp airmass is present across the Panhandles in the wake of the cold front that pushed south last night.
/issued 438 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Expansive ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS has once again yielded temperatures well above seasonal normals, with a number of climate sites in the LCH CWA preliminarily breaking daily record highs. The aforementioned weak frontal boundary continues to wash out over the region through the weekend as high pressure shifts eastward. The big (and welcome) story manifests by the start of the work week as the oppressive ridge that has sat over the SE CONUS begins to break down due to the influence of a modest trough digging into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley region.
631 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Increasing surface pressure and cooler/drier air will continue to build southward into the region tonight into Friday. Higher level moisture will continue to stream over the area so we should lose the low clouds while maintaining the higher level clouds. That high pressure area will move into the Ohio valley.
An upper level low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest will move east across the Northern Rockies Friday. An associated weak cold front will generate scattered showers across far northern Utah Friday, while ushering in below average temperatures heading into the weekend.
Some showers will sweep quickly across northern Nevada Friday with a cold front.
948 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Cold front has cleared the forecast area this evening, and will remove the evening pops in southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Thus will leave the low pops as is for late tonight in parts of northeast Oklahoma.
816 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will end this evening with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is anticipated for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes.
A cold front will be approaching the area tomorrow, and the main impact will be an increase in clouds and a shift of winds to the north.
811 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 True cold front late this evening was located across S OK into N AR but a prefrontal trough has made good progress into our region and this combined with ample lift from an upper level disturbance across SE TX and abundant instability from daytime heating resulted in scattered to numerous thunderstorms earlier today and we are still dealing with the aftermath this convection at this late hour. Overnight low temperatures are in good shape with upper 60s to lower 70s areawide as the true cold front to our north should slowly backdoor itself to near the I-20 corridor of NE LA by 12z Fri.
Across all terminals tonight, some degree of directional wind shear will develop given the depth of the shallow boundary behind the cold front that will be underneath a southerly low-level jet around 20-30 knots. /issued 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front continues to move south across the area this afternoon with it currently located from Denver City to Welch to Snyder. Temperatures have remained quite cool behind the front with locations around Muleshoe reporting mid 50's as of early this afternoon with warmer temperatures to the south of the front in the low 80's.
741 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 An upper level low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest will move east across the Northern Rockies Friday. An associated weak cold front will generate scattered showers across far northern Utah Friday, while ushering in below average temperatures heading into the weekend. The associated cold front is expected to reach northwest Utah shortly after sunrise, passing through Evanston and Fillmore by midday. An upper level trough situated along the Pacific Coast will slowly progress inland over the next couple of days, eventually pushing a cold front through the forecast area midday Friday.
/issued 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Broad high pressure remains aloft over the southeast today, but will slowly move out over the Atlantic Ocean and weaken through the weekend as a trough moves into the central plains.
718 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Much cooler temperatures and drier conditions will continue this evening and into the weekend, bringing Fall-like conditions to the region.
Winds will become calm and then start to increase from the southeast as the high shifts east. Still, believe there will be breaks allowing temps to fall to near freezing in most areas tonight. Friday night an upper low will be approaching from the west and will begin to bring some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region as well. The cool and active pattern remains in place as the next upper low moves into the region. Cold front pushing in during Sat aftn. The upper low will lift towards the Great Lakes during the day on Sun, with some wrap around pcpn a distinct possibility over mainly NW MN.
438 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Expansive ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS has once again yielded temperatures well above seasonal normals, with a number of climate sites in the LCH CWA preliminarily breaking daily record highs. The aforementioned weak frontal boundary continues to wash out over the region through the weekend as high pressure shifts eastward. The big (and welcome) story manifests by the start of the work week as the oppressive ridge that has sat over the SE CONUS begins to break down due to the influence of a modest trough digging into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley region.
/Issued 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon with large temperature gradient across the region.
The cold front/surface wind shift has now occurred across the entirety of the PAH FA. The lagging cooler air is already seeping into our farthest northern counties, with mid-upper 70s around Mount Vernon, IL.
Although it will feel quite cold relative to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions we had the past week, the lows tonight will only be about 5 degrees below normal for early October. Relatively cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday night as surface ridging extends from the Great Lakes region southwest into MO on Friday.
Upper level ridge has brought us dry and warmer weather today, with current temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A trough along the Pacific coast is moving inland and already spreading some high clouds to our far west, a trend that will continue tonight. An initial weak wave lifting north will allow a surface wind shift to northerly tomorrow during the day, ahead of the main front, and this direction change should result in less downsloping and higher potential for precipitation once the forcing from the main trof arrives.
535 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Upper-level ridging was over the CWA per water vapor images and the RAP model analysis. As an upper-level trough over the West Coast approaches the CWA tonight and Friday, a strong low-level jet stream (up to 50 kt) will develop over the CWA. The upper trough will swing through the CWA Friday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with some snow to the Black Hills and northeastern WY (amounts 1 inch or less).
758 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the region tonight behind a cold front. This cooler air could give rise to some lake effect sprinkles or isolated rain showers across northwest Indiana late tonight. Associated boundary layer cold front has moved well into Ohio at this time and appears that another reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air poised to cross Lake Michigan during the overnight.
920 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A weak cold front has moved through much of the Mid-South this afternoon and evening. The front has now washed out over the area due to the upper ridge that has been in place. The ridge has weakened some but will continue to remain in place over the region through the early part of the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal, but will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what they have been. The biggest change will be in humidity as northerly winds behind the cold front will bring drier air into the region.
1050 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Currently across the Florida Keys, another warm evening is underway with temperatures mainly in the lower 80s with gusty easterly winds continuing. Parcels will have a difficult time getting much higher than the freezing level as a result. Winds are forecast to relax towards morning as low pressure near the Yucatan continues to depart westward and the pressure gradient relaxes in response. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the western waters of the Florida Keys, including the surrounding nearshore waters of the Lower Keys and offshore waters parallel and westward.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Much cooler temperatures and drier conditions will continue this evening and into the weekend, bringing Fall-like conditions to the region.
An upper low was positioned offshore from the state of Washington this afternoon with a trough axis extending south across the OR and CA coasts. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring close to the center of the upper low, while dry sunny skies prevailed across NWRN CA. an upper ridge is forecast to build across the west coast. Dry subsident conditions associated with the ridge combined with light to moderate north-northeasterlies will favor warm conditions across the region.
617 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The stratus cloud layer over the region will continue to dissipate as large-scale subsidence increases in response to the upper-level ridging over the Northern Plains.
328 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2019 An area of low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy conditions through this evening and a chance for light showers in far northeast CA and northwest NV tonight. Temperatures will cool a few degrees Friday before warmer temperatures are expected by the end of the weekend. The ridges around Lake Tahoe are currently gusting to 40-45 mph, which should bring peak gusts up to 35 mph on the lake.
/issued 331 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ The cold front that entered the area yesterday evening and brought heavy rain to northwest Oklahoma overnight and this morning has now mostly cleared the area, leaving a cooler and drier airmass in its wake. Friday will be a transition day as the cold front begins to lift north again as a warm front in response to lee cyclogenesis ahead of the next western US trough. Some indications that stratus may try to hold on through the morning, which may delay the scouring of the surface inversion and slow the northward progression of the warm front.
Upper level ridge has brought us dry and warmer weather today, with current temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A trough along the Pacific coast is moving inland and already spreading some high clouds to our far west, a trend that will continue tonight. An initial weak wave lifting north will allow a surface wind shift to northerly tomorrow during the day, ahead of the main front, and this direction change should result in less downsloping and higher potential for precipitation once the forcing from the main trof arrives. Then drier conditions and warmer temperatures will return until mid week when another drop in temperatures is expected.
A cold front gradually moving from south to north of the region will bring a switch from south to southeasterly winds to north to northeasterly winds through Friday morning, mostly 10 KT or less. /issued 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) As of mid afternoon, a weak cold front was just entering extreme northern portions of the Big Country. The NAM continues to be the cooler model, with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 80s across far southern sections. The GFS is considerably warmer and has highs in the 80s areawide.
With the pulse of low level moisture and the proximity of a cold front located over northern TX, environmental conditions will continue favorable for shower and thunderstorm activity mainly for the sites north of KIAH through at least 06Z.
Lows will range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with a few normally cooler inland locations potentially dropping as low as the mid 60s toward daybreak. This lower coverage of onshore moving showers will continue into the morning, with additional isolated shower development possible along the inland moving east coast sea breeze from late morning into the afternoon.