Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Complex of thunderstorms that moved across much of the area has pushed southeast of the CWA as the cold front continues to move to the southeast. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through midday over the southeast half of the CWA as there will still be some ascent ahead of mid-level trough that will move across Missouri and Illinois later in the day. Clouds will clear out slowly today and there will be some cold air advection which will allow for cooler temperatures than yesterday. Skies will turn mostly clear behind the mid level trough axis tonight.
Hot and dry weather will continue through the coming week as ridging across the United States will continue to dominate the large scale weather pattern.
241 PM PDT Sun Jun 18 2017 High pressure aloft over the southwest states will bring well above normal high temperatures through mid week.
1112 AM PDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Expect warmer weather today and Monday.
After morning temperatures in the low to mid 60s, sunshine will boost afternoon readings into the low to mid 80s.
As a cold front and upper trough move into the Ohio Valley region tonight, the SW low to midlevel flow increases and begins to advect deep moisture into the area. The passage of the cold front and upper trough to our east occurs Monday evening, but the NAM hangs the front across the NC mountains and N GA through Monday night, so a chance PoP will be maintained overnight for that area.
High pressure aloft will prevail for dry and warmer weather on Monday.
244 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cooler and less humid conditions will settle into the Great Lakes region into mid week.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trough exiting to the east of the area early this morning. With expected cloud cover and cooler northwest flow temepratures will struggle to warm through the lower 70s today.
Highest rain chances and wind speeds should be tonight and Monday as a low-level trough migrates northwestward from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, rain chances will drop back to average quickly, with wind speeds higher than average through the week thanks to a well-built ridge north of the Keys. A high pressure cell over the western North Atlantic will expand and intensify tonight and Monday. At the same time, an area of tropical low pressure will migrate northwestward, from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ 11 am temperatures from the West Texas Mesonet show that we are running about 20 to 30 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday across much of the Caprock, and about 10 to 20 in the Rolling Plains. /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to Clarendon line as of 345 am. Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the Desert Southwest.
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Today-tonight: Will linger rain showers/thunderstorm into the morning when combo of upper trough/diffluence and drier air finally shuts down precipitation.
440 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A southerly flow associated with high pressure off the Southeast coast will continue in the forecast area through Monday.
512 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Short and medium range models are in decent agreement that an upper level ridge of high pressure will situate itself over the southwest states through most of this week while an upper level trof of low pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern states.
554 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cold front will move across the region through midnight. An upper level trough will then persist across the area into the middle of the week.
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Surface cold front just about to slip east at press time, with latest water vapor imagery showing mid level dry air becoming well established over southeast Michigan, which has/will allow skies to become mostly clear. Mostly clear skies will then persist through the evening and most of the night, but continued cold advection and next series of upper level waves tracking through Midwest late tonight helping to amplifying the longwave trough axis further, with colder 500 mb temps of -18 C spilling over southeast Michigan late Monday. Severe thunderstorms not expected with meager instability and 0-6 KM bulk shear dropping off through the day, but small hail remains possible with favorable freezing levels around/just under 10 kft.
Tonight and Monday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure lifting northeast away from the region over eastern Upper Michigan. Back edge of the comma head associated with this cyclone has moved north of the U. With upper troughing firmly in place across the region, precip trends and thunderstorm chances are the primary concerns in the short term. Upper troughing will remain centered over the western Great Lakes region. Temps falling into the low 50s north to upper 50s near the Lake.
The latest WV imagery and upper air analysis shows an elongated shear zone/weak low pres from the north central Gulf coast southwest over the central Gulf, between the Bermuda high to the east and a ridge west of the area over TX and northern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now gives this system a 70 percent chc of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are gradually shifting east as the higher mean level CAPEs axis 250-500 J/KG area expands eastward as well as a slight eastward shift of the upper jet. Prefer the higher resolution model over the SREF and have went hourly POPs through the day tomorrow with this guidance. Monday night the last vort lobe to wrap around the 500mb closed low which has been anchored over Hudson Bay will bring showers to the area overnight.
Models remain in good agreement that convection should continue to ramp up along and ahead of a cold front to our north later this afternoon with another Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely, but this time for our northern most zones that would go through the evening hours.
On Monday, the northwest flow weakens a bit as the ridge nudges eastward across the Rockies.
217 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 High pressure with west northwest flow aloft will remain over the area building north from the Great Basin. As this warmer air moves north, temperatures will warm over the area with decreasing wind.
Main focus for today will be the upper low that you can see rotating near Montgomery AL on the latest radar imagery. The Canadian model which was previously the quickest, strongest and most easterly tracked model is now pushing the low west of the Mississippi River delta. After that I will keep scattered POPs through the period as the region remains under weak upper troughing and no matter what the eventual resolution of the tropical system is, we should see ample moisture across the state. More thunderstorms expected on Monday but a sagging cold front should favor north GA.
313 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 At H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and over the Desert Southwest. Closed low over the western plains of Canada. Closed low over the Great Lakes. With cloud cover temperatures should hold in the low 50s east and southwest and the upper 40s northwest. Secondary wave rotates around Great Lakes low diving across northern plains on Monday with temperatures similar to todays highs in the 70s north and the low 80s south with cold air advection continuing over north central Nebraska.
220 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this afternoon into Monday. A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around.
343 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Closed upper low will loiter over the Northland tonight and Monday keeping below normal temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the picture. A persistent and slow moving upper low is forecast to gradually slide eastward during the next 36 hours.
/Tonight through Monday/ CU field in place with back side of upper trough/cyclonic flow remains aloft across the area today into Monday. Could have a few gusty winds or small hailstones with any stronger storm that might develop this afternoon, given the low freezing levels. Again with the low freezing level on Monday and slightly stronger instability, could see some low to possibly even marginally severe hail with any stronger storm Monday afternoon. Temperatures to be slightly warmer into Monday with low level waa and moisture advection across much of the state.
1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front has moved through most of the area this morning with only slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Broad upper trough will prevail over the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley through mid week, as ridging builds west of the Rockies.
Most places over the plains have temperatures in the lower 80s F right now.
A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes Region on Monday and bring widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the region.
229 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 228 PM CDT Stratocumulus clouds in the cold advection regime have filled in behind upper level low pressure to our northeast. We remain in northwest flow behind upper level low pressure, a pattern that favors diurnally driven showers, but better shower coverage potential is expected Monday as several models depict a modest wave in the flow. Temperatures look to fall slightly cooler than today's, with readings generally topping out in the mid 70s. The upper level trough slowly shifts east early this week then zonal flow sets up aloft.
Cold front is forecast to approach from the north but stall out before quite making it into the area.
Mostly clear tonight and Monday under a ridge of high pressure.
Weak surface ridging will provide light winds after sunset tonight, but mixing will bring an increase from the west-northwest again by late morning. The light winds/dry air mass will allow for another seasonably cool night with lows in the lower-mid 50s. Low level temperatures Monday similar to just a shade warmer than today, but should be able to mix slightly higher with the drier air, allowing for high temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than today.
Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s as a result of increased cloud coverage.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a weak trough over the western Gulf with northeasterly winds over Texas.
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Upper level ridging will build across the Desert Southwest on the backside of our departing Northern Plains trough that helped fuel an active weather pattern over the last few days. As the cloud shield mixes out during the day, steepening mid-level lapse rates may yield a few spotty mid-afternoon showers, though the CAPE profiles are quite short and barely reach the freezing level before encountering a 500mb cap.
1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cooler air has spread across the area with temperatures in the mid 50s early this morning. Weak mid level convergence, a small ridge of warmer temperatures near the mid level moist layer and the surface heating will allow for CAPE values around 500 J/kg. One reason for a threat for small hail with such minor instability is a freezing level around 8000-8500 feet AGL. With the cool dry air in place lows will fall into the lower to mid 50s in most locations by early Monday morning. The first half of the week will be characterized by a warm up as upper level ridge works east into the plains.
227 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cold front still working its way across south-central and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
341 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east through the region tonight.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge parked over southern Nevada and an upper low circulating over Ontario.
No concerns for any precipitation as high pressure remains firmly in control and will remain so over the next several days. Having said that, as the center of high pressure moves more directly over the four corners region, temperatures look to increase even more tomorrow.
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 228 PM CDT Stratocumulus clouds in the cold advection regime have filled in behind upper level low pressure to our northeast. We remain in northwest flow behind upper level low pressure, a pattern that favors diurnally driven showers, but better shower coverage potential is expected Monday as several models depict a modest wave in the flow. Temperatures look to fall slightly cooler than today's, with readings generally topping out in the mid 70s. KMD 232 PM CDT Northwest flow still expected to be in place at the start of the period, with broad upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS.
Low pressure was over the northern great lakes with a cold front extending south across central Indiana. cooler and drier air will spread east across our region tonight.
Latest CONSSHORT guidance is a bit cooler across srn valley than prev fcst and with expected cloud cover today, will go ahead and lower region (Wahpeton/Breckenridge) 2 to 3 deg. Current satellite imagery indicating quite a bit of cloud cover and with cooler column temperatures in the 60's seems reasonable.
356 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Last night's cold frontal passage and today's abundant low clouds was a welcome relief to the recent run of triple digit daytime temperatures. As of mid-afternoon, 24-hour temperature changes per West Texas Mesonet and ASOS/AWOS observations were 20 to 30 degrees cooler areawide than yesterday.
Monday continues to look warm as a short-lived ridge of high pressure develops over the area.
The low level wind field is pretty benign with a fairly weak pressure gradient in place.
1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 18Z TAF issuance Cold front continues to progress through the area with gusty northerly winds and lower cigs behind it.
157 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A 110 kt jet is moving over the CWA through northwest flow, and an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An approaching upper level trough will bring strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will spread over the region overnight and Monday before a cold front through Pennsylvania.
High pressure will approach from the southwest on Monday increasing the pressure gradient. An upper low will sit north of the state with a mid level trough across Wisconsin. The trough axis will move east of the region during the morning, but flow will still be diffluent with steep low level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft.
1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Latest surface map shows a stationary front stretching from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley then snaking back as a cold front through the Great Lakes region into Ontario Canada. Per verification, did trend towards the lower edge of guidance for forecast relative humidity southwest and towards the higher edge of guidance for winds for most areas with efficient mixing expected. Northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by the 00 UTC global suites is forecast to transition to zonal by mid week, before a continued transition to low amplitude troughing late in the week.
1123 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 In the wake of a cold front that moved thru the southeast plains last evening, low level upslope winds and a cloud layer have developed. Temps today acrs the southeast plains will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a little cooler over northern El Paso county where highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. With a cooler and more stable air mass over the southeast plains, the weather is expected to be dry.
316 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Aloft, broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, cold front has moved into the Ohio Valley and northwest wind is advecting dry air into the mid Mississippi Valley.
Most of this activity should weaken and decrease in coverage with sunset, but additional showers and storms are expected tomorrow morning with the approach of an upper level trough and surface cold front.
155 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. A cold front to our west will make slow in roads to the east. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Lake Huron back through Indiana, Southeast Missouri, then back through Northwest Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma. Across the Lower Mississippi Valley. 12Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF indicate a potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop along the slowly moving cold front across much of the area.
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An approaching upper level trough will bring strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will spread over the region overnight and Monday before a cold front through Pennsylvania.
A cold front has pushed down into Arkansas with northerly winds occuring in the low levels. Monday looks very nice and sunny with highs in the lower 80s.
the region is under increasingly northwesterly flow at 500mb as the trough amplifies over the Midwest aloft. highs will set up from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Dry Monday night with lows a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A much needed, much quieter day is on tap in the wake of last evening's cold front. Sunshine should arrive in time to allow sufficient diurnal heating during the afternoon, but this surface heating will battle increasing northwest winds/CAA and only allow highs to reach the low 80s.
1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Showers are developing along a weak cold front draped across NE South Dakota. With less instability and dry air in the lower levels, expect little QPF with these storms.
326 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cold front will move across the region through midnight. An upper level trough will then persist across the area into the middle of the week.
306 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cold front situated from northwest Arkansas through southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Cool high pressure will settle over the region for the next several days. shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area as the next frontal boundary and upper level trough approach.
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An approaching upper level trough will bring strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will spread over the region overnight and Monday before a cold front through Pennsylvania.
Then guidance indicates a weak lobe of vorticy to pivot southeast along the back side of the 500mb trough axis and help to re-introduce rain around 15z thru Mon aftn/eve. With temps a thermal trough overhead, expect some differential heating within the column to help maringally destabilize and produce some isolated thunderstorms by 18z Mon and persist thru the afternoon. Highs Mon will continue unseasonably cool in the low/mid 60s.
An upper level ridge will build northward over the region today into Monday. Cloud bases at KYKM, KPSC, KALW and KPDT will start out today as BKN-OVC 050-110 due to a moisture plume in the lower mid levels as seen in the visible satellite imagery loop streaming across the Lower Columbia Basin this morning. The moisture plume will thin out in the afternoon as the lower mid levels become drier by late this afternoon resulting in clearing skies across the Lower Columbia Basin and the Yakima Valley before sundown.
635 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Slightly, and I emphasize slightly, cooler and drier will be in place over the area today in the wake of yesterdays weak frontal passage.
1011 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Weak high pressure over the midwest will control the weather today.
808 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A trough across the area and high moisture will result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. Short wave trough approaching from the northwest. Latest SPC HRRR showing the highest pops towards late afternoon. Weak trough remains across the area. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s, and highs on Monday in the upper 80s.
High pressure will remain in place across the region over the next couple of days, resulting in continued hot temperatures.
526 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across Minnesota, with remnants of stationary front across western South Dakota. Strong upper ridge across the Rockies into the Northern Plains will bring another hot day. Old surface front will lift northward today as trof/dry line.
750 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 An slowly approaching cold front will stall over the area into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Monday. Latest SPC HRRR showing the highest pops towards late afternoon. The main front will weaken and wash out across the forecast area on Monday, although a weak lee-side trough should still remain. Temperatures will begin to cool off slightly as the front moves into the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s, and highs on Monday in the upper 80s.
Additional development is expected during peak daytime heating as the trough slowly moves south.
High temperatures look to reach into the lower 90s for most areas.
422 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Today will be breezy and cooler behind a cold front that moved through the region overnight. Winds will subside overnight leading to a cooler than average night tonight.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 At 08z, radar indicated a subtropical upper level low near Goodland KS. Heavy convection fired south of the upper low this evening across southeast Colo. The models lift the upper low into Swrn Neb tonight and ambient precipitable water increases to over 1.
High pressure ridge axis just north of forecast area so easterly low level flow will keep Gulf Coast sea breeze front just east of Interstate 75 this afternoon.
928 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region late this afternoon into Monday. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s. By Monday morning the upper level short wave has pushed towards western New York with the trough axis being centered across our eastern zones (putting most of the area in weak upper level convergence). Forecast soundings at this time don't look impressive with mid and upper level dry air wrapping around the back side of the upper level low. Mid and upper level ridging will try to build east northeast toward the region through mid week but our area will mainly remain on its edge.
A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Monday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 71 88 71 / 20 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 87 69 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 89 69 / 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 64 87 66 / 10 10 30 10.
1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. In terms of upper air, latest water vapor shows a broad trough covering much of the eastern US, with a shear axis running NE to SW across the Carolinas. The mid level trough axis is forecast to remain along the Appalachians Monday and Monday night. Even though the low level boundary should just about wash out by then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.