Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS AT 300 AM WERE IN THE LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THE CHC OF SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY. THE SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TN VALLEY.
425 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2015 SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS AIRMASS WARMS A LITTLE MORE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD KEEP AREAS IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS A LITTLE WARMER. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD.
625 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST. LOOSING THE WESTERLY COMPONENT MAY RESULT IN JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
647 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
WENT WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY. ONCE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE DRYLINE. SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MAY HAVE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES LATER TONIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE GREATEST. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONG JET ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING IT TO DIG AND SPLIT AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN. WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV. PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH IS A BIT MORE IFFY AND WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF FURTHER WEST AND THE FLOW ALOFT GOING NORTHERLY ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE WASATCH FRONT MISSES OUT ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow showers is anticipated for late in the week. Rain and mountain snow ending rapidly around the region as the trof axis crosses the Cascade crest and skies rapidly clear out. With the rapid clearing behind the cold front and winds diminishing, could see the potential for patchy fog or stratus.
Temperatures will gradually climb into the low and mid 70s, with continued warm southerly advection.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE REGION A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXITING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE BACK WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE.
As potent upper low moves into the Four Corners region this afternoon impressive 130-140 kt jet streak will shift into the Southern Plains moving across Western Texas/Southern New Mexico and into the Texas panhandle. A few lingering showers will be possible across Northwest Arkansas, including far Northeast Oklahoma Tuesday night as upper low lifts northeast of the region.
226 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A DEEP/ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FULL SUN AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. AS THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR.
1102 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1151 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON AS THE REGION IS IN A DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE WV IMAGES SHOWED A CHAIN OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN CENTRAL CA. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RESULTING IN WARMER MINS TONIGHT IN THE 40S. STAYED NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the 60s by this afternoon. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable at this point.
TROUGH IN PLACE THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT 09Z UNLIKELY TO PUSH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE INITIAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING NEAR FOCUS OF DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL SD. NOSE OF JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE NIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES.
1107 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 WHAT A GORGEOUS NOVEMBER DAY WITH FULL SUN ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WAS DUE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THINGS CHANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT.
Precip along the front moved through the area in the morning followed by showers and thunderstorms underneath the upper trough in the afternoon. Upper ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts closer to the West Coast over NorCal Monday with breezy northerly flow likely to develop across much of the region. Moisture riding over the ridge may bring some light precip to the far northern part of the state through mid-week while the remainder of interior NorCal will likely be dry.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.
122 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH NUDGING CLOSER TO THE SHORE. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SO MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LEADING TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTH BY MORNING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FULL LATITUDE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. AS THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IMPACTS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
1109 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT EVEN MORE FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
We expect this rain to shift northeast this morning but will have a tough time pushing very far into our area as forecast soundings continue to show a rather dry atmosphere in place in the low levels thru most of this morning. However, with time, the moisture will deepen in the lower layers across our forecast area we should see the rain spread in from the southwest this morning affecting west central through southeast Illinois first, with the east seeing the showers this afternoon. With the extensive cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than what we saw yesterday with most areas in the middle 50s accompanied by a gusty southerly breeze.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL.
302 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NE. CURRENTLY THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NE AND IS CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 06Z TUE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TAKING OVER AS THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE. THE TROUGH AND MAX 700MB LIFT ONLY MAKES IT INTO SPINE OF GEORGIA BY 00Z ON THU.
333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 A deepening mid level trof was initialized at 00Z/16 just inland of the w coast with a closed low forecast to quickly develop this morning INVOF NW AZ. Jet energy is anything but lacking with a 130kt@3h diving s on the backside of said trof/low. The associated Pacific cold front was in wrn AZ at 06z/16. Storms will exit the CWFA around or shortly after 06Z/17 and increased w winds will follow with the passage of the cold front. Despite the downslope winds we prefer the cooler temps due largely to the cool column (-2C to -4C@7H).
208 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE WILL SEE A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL BRING ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. A WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AS THE MIDLEVE RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST TONIGHT.
343 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
1220 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROF OVERSPREADS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT/DRY-LINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
1157 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.
246 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A potent upper level trough currently across the West Coast will move west and approach the Rockies on Monday. Overnight lows are generally forecast to remain in the low 60s. On Monday, high temperatures will be warmer than what is forecast today, generally in the mid to upper 70s. Current WV imagery indicating a strong upper level trough moving into the west coast(12Z 50H height falls in CA). This strong dynamic system will move into the Southern Rockies during Monday with the trough axis over the Four Corners by 17/00Z.
1248 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.
wind fields increase markedly with the low level jet nearly doubling to 50-60 kts.
134 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY.
Rainfall intensity and coverage will expand from the plains into the Ozarks during the overnight hours as the upper level dynamics help to increase rainfall efficiency across the area as the upper level low moves into the plains.
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACKUP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SRN NEVADA AND NRN ARIZONA. UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOONWILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES OR CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT. THE WRN PORTION OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CATALINA FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.
Heights will build over the southeastern states today as a deep trough begins to eject from the four corners region. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide eastward, reaching the outer banks this afternoon.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 70S AGAIN DUE TO DOWN SLOPING OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN/WI WED- THU.
The aforementioned storm system is forecast to dig into the southwest US and become a closed low on Monday. Even though there are minor differences in the track and timing of the upper low, it is forecast to lift north northeast across the plains from Monday night through Tuesday night.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL.
Strong southerly wind this afternoon continues to advect the low level moisture northward into the area, maintaining overcast skies through the day tomorrow. Rainfall amounts tonight through tomorrow afternoon are generally on the low side with less than a quarter of an inch. Low temps are not anticipated to cool given the insulation from overcast skies and rainfall with readings in the lower 50s. Conflicting lapse rates and subsequent amount of instability is overall on the low side (less than 800 J/KG) leading to a lower confidence in coverage and strength of any thunderstorm that is able to form, given the increasing effective shear over 50 kts in the afternoon. Have continued to side closer to the bulk of the other guidance with the low tracking through Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night.
1254 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY TO MID WEEK.
A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS COMBINING WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY DAY MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. TRANSITIONING WX TYPE TO VCTS AS WE HEAT UP AND THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINAL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE SAME AREA HAS BEEN FORECASTED TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE REST OF CASSIA COUNTY IN THE HIGHLANDS.
FOG AND DRIZZLE UNDERWAY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SWRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA TODAY. THE RAP13 MODEL SHOW LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WRN NEB TODAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THIS IS A PROXY FOR THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF A SHARP COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING A RAIN-SNOW LINE. AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC.
415 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MERGE UP WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA TONIGHT.
1130 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING EASTERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND EJECTS ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DIPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL VERY DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF A THETA E RIDGE. AS REINFORCING COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
301 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
648 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015 The mid-level ridge was becoming more positively tilted early this morning, and should stretch from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes region by this afternoon. In addition to this MCS, one signal that several of the short-range models are continuing to pick up on is the potential for scattered showers and some thunderstorms to develop across the central portion of the CWA along the eastern edge of the low-level jet axis and the area of instability.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AND KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED.
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DRIFTING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NOW SHIFTED TO THE ERN CWA. A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER N GA DRIFTS TO CENTRAL TO S GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM THE MODELS HAVE IS WITH TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70. AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~ 5 TO 7 DEG F BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JUNE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS TX/S PLAINS THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK BETWEEN UPPER LOWS ALONG EACH COAST OF CONUS. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER SUN THAN SAT. 00Z GFS SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WHILE EC TRENDS TOWARD A MORE DEAMPLIFIED SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN NORTH FLORIDA AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
MID AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE THE SE STATES TODAY BRINGING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM THE GULF. SW STEERING FLOW WILL PRODUCE FASTER CELL MOVEMENT THAN YESTERDAY AS SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS IMPULSES WITH NEARING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES FROM TENN INTO EXTREME WESTERN NC. WITH TROUGH CONTINUED TO BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO SE GA BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BUT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STORMS FORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZES.
AS STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND FORCING IS WEAK.
A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday will continue the unsettled weather with another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon/evening hours.
AND WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROGS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATING LATER TODAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
144 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE. WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. ALL THE MODELS I LOOKED AT ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT AND SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
125 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY.