Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Fairly quiet initially in the short term, with skies expected to be clear this evening and winds diminishing with high pressure across the area situated off to the southwest of the CWA. Late tonight into early Wednesday another surge of cold air to move through the state behind a cold front associated with the main upper low spinning over central Canada. Sfc pres gradient tightens up quite a bit toward mid-day Wednesday, with momentum transfer with CAA expected to bring higher winds from the lower levels down to the surface as well. /Wednesday night through Tuesday/ With thermal trof passing to the northeast on Wednesday night, very cold conditions will prevail with wind chills dropping into advisory criteria across the northeast third to half of the forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 50 27 37 / 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 45 24 33 / 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 47 23 33 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 44 21 29 / 40 10 10 0.
However, the major change in the wx pattern will be, as the sfc cold front finally pushes south of the mid state tonight, a strong CAA pattern becoming established across the area by Thu, with afternoon temps expected at or below freezing for most of the mid state, with temps slightly warmer for locations approaching the TN/AL border. The CAA Pattern will quickly shift from Fri morning as the day progresses, as a warm front moves rapidly across the mid state region during the day, placing our area in a broad warm sector of a developing frontal system, and an increasing WAA pattern.
High pressure moves slightly eastward and is southeast of our area this evening, however a reinforcing shot of arctic air will then begin to infiltrate our region late tonight. Therefore high pressure to the northwest takes over, with a marked wind shift from the west to a northwesterly direction after midnight tonight. With the wind in place of 10 to 15 mph late tonight and early Wednesday, preferred the non bias corrected GEM Regional temperatures as the basis for lows, with some mix of the all blend solution which is only slightly warmer by about a category. This high RH may be an artifact of cold air.
Stacked upper low over Hudson's bay in Canada is sending a trough pinwheeling through southern Sask this afternoon.
Temps across the area only in the lower to mid 20s. Most of the central/eastern portions of the CWA are still under influence of strong surface ridging w/ western zones seeing some light southerly winds. NNE surface thru the day w/ surface ridging from the north.
401 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 A weak frontal boundary that was stalled near northwestern portions of the forecast area yesterday has lifted north as a warm front but stalled across central Mississippi. Digging south of a broad upper trough from Canada into the central U. will bring reinforcing high pressure south to the coast, which will push all the rain and aforementioned frontal boundary south.
Ceilings remain across much of far SE OK through NW AR and short range guidance is aggressive in spreading the lower clouds northward tonight in advance of the next push of colder air.
Most of the activity has moved east of the lower Atchafalaya Basin but a few isltd tstms are still crossing srn Saint Landry and nrn Lafayette and Saint Martin Parishes. North of the frontal boundary, temperatures are in the lower 60s acrs nrn LA and northeast TX. For tonight, the cold front over the area is expected to slide south toward the coast and eventually offshore this evening. Any warmup on Wednesday will be limited by cloud cover, with max temps only about 10 degrees warmer than the overnight lows. The second stronger front (currently moving out of OK) will move through the area during the day Wednesday, bringing a surge a cooler air into the region.
A cold front will move through Wednesday morning switching the winds around to the north at around 15 knots. /Issued 505 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016/ The next cold front is slated to move across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Wednesday with cooler temperatures in its wake.
Temperatures have recovered nicely this afternoon, especially over the far southwest where readings were in the lower teens. Once again tonight we will see wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero across most of the forecast area as a cold front drops south through the night. Not a strong cold front but significant pressure rises will keep winds up through the night.
A cold front will then push through the waters Wednesday and Wednesday night with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. High pressure will then build to the north of the region through the end of the week with a wedge/local northeaster developing by late week.
Return flow will impact low temperatures with upper 20s possible across the Rolling Plains with the higher wind speeds and dewpoints across the western South Plains keeping min temperatures there near or a few degrees above freezing. Wednesday will see another cold front arrive in the norther part of the forecast area shortly before noon local time and gradually slide south through the rest of the afternoon. This setup will likely result in highs climbing into the low to mid 60s across the southern South Plains while the majority of the Rolling Plains remains in the upper 40s.
831 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2016 Rapidly moving low pressure will spread snow across the much of the region into this evening and will usher in an arctic airmass for the late week. Another system will move in for the start of the weekend, bringing a wintry mix and some warmer air. As the cold front moves to the east, snowfall coverage should be slim after midnight. Brief high pressure will help maintain mostly dry weather for much of Wednesday.
The center of the high should remain generally over the region through tomorrow. Some of the models are bringing in higher clouds tonight, which may have an impact on the low temperatures. The consensus is lows in the lower to mid 10s. Tomorrow the next high pressure will build down from the northwest increasing the pressure gradient across the area.
559 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 Another cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the forecast area later tonight. The wind will begin to decrease by late Wednesday afternoon as a cold area of high pressure slides down into the region.
640 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2016 The coldest air of the season will move in tonight and it will get even colder by Wednesday night as another Arctic cold front pushes through the region.
Models remain consistent in handling timing of precipitation associated with the approaching warm front. Mostly clear and cold in Idaho north of the Snake Basin this evening, otherwise increasing clouds from the southwest as a Pacific warm front approaches.
540 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 As one area of high pressure departs the region, the next one will arrive later tonight. This high pressure will be over southwest SD Wednesday afternoon with colder temps likely over this CWA.
The short range mesoscale models vary on how far inland the low visibilities will reach and how long they will last.
As the trough moves eastward into the Atlantic waters, most of the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward keeping South Florida under very limited moisture content. 5 to 1 inch mainly in the lower layers through the week with abundant dry air in the mid levels.
Cold front moving through the area resulted in some light rain, briefly mixed with a few snow flakes in northern counties early this afternoon.
Low clouds will continue to clear over southeast IL late this afternoon by around 6 pm as arctic cold front pushes southeast of the Ohio river. 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over sw IA and southeast Nebraska and ridging into nw IL, will settle over central IL by 12Z/Wed. 1040 mb arctic high pressure over British Columbia will weaken to 1035 mb as it drifts southeast into the central and northern Plains by sunset Wed. Another reinforcing shot of arctic air will usher into central IL Wed afternoon into wed night ahead of this high pressure system as WSW winds Wed morning turn nw and increase to 10- 20 mph Wed afternoon. Clouds to increase late tonight over IL river valley and over rest of CWA Wed morning, then decrease from nw to se behind next cold front during Wed afternoon.
Proton Previous Discussion Stacked upper low over Hudson's bay in Canada is sending a trough pinwheeling through southern Sask this afternoon.
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2016 Rapidly moving low pressure will spread snow across the much of the region into this evening and will usher in an arctic airmass for the late week. Another system will move in for the start of the weekend, bringing a wintry mix and some warmer air. As the cold front moves to the east, snowfall coverage should be slim after midnight. Brief high pressure will help maintain mostly dry weather for much of Wednesday.
/issued 958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 104 to 108 degrees. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area.
Regional radar and satellite imagery shows storms developing across the higher terrain of New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos region, extending into southeast New Mexico. The activity will have limited CAPE to work with initially, but as it slowly progresses eastward it may be able to tap into the higher CAPE environment across the central and southern South Plains, leading to stronger storms and a greater severe threat. Some of the high-res guidance indicates that storms may congeal into a small cluster this evening somewhere across the central or southern South Plains.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 200 pm overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts the center of a deep and warm middle and upper anticyclonic ridge oriented from the Georgia coast east southeastwards into the Western Atlantic to near 25 N 70 W. Closer to the Florida Keys, A middle and upper level area of low pressure is migrating west over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 23. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. A few tiny showers are developing along boundaries to the immediate north of the Lower Keys attm.
Cooler and breezy conditions will begin to overspread the area on Thursday. A secondary area of possible concern may need to be monitored for late evening/early portions of overnight as additional clusters of storms are expected to develop across central Wisconsin this afternoon downstream of increasing diffluence with potent upper low/upper jet streak. Upper low will shift southeast across the region on Thursday with strongest synoptic forcing across eastern half in the morning, where have maintained low to mid chance PoPs.
321 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
The divergence was from a coupled upper jet located in the E side of a pacific trough. In addition, there will be other lift from isentropic lift over a warm front moving N through the central and E this evening.
434 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will bring humid conditions along with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. Low pressure is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon. Fries Better chances for precip are expected as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected Thursday night.
On Thursday, westerly flow will remain in place as a mid-level trough sinks down into the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid level ridging will continue to hold sway over Texas through the short term. High temperatures Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West. Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will be from the mid to upper 70s to the lower 80s. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support moderate south southeast winds Thursday.
325 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The weak cold front backings southwest through central Nebraska and seen on the radar mosaic at this time could be a focus for isolated thunderstorms in the southwest this evening.
The lower cigs scatter out by late morning with gusty southeasterly winds again.
254 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 A trough will be nearly stationary over the Pacific NW over the next 36 hours creating a gradient between the strong high pressure in place across the southcentral US. The gradient will lessen slightly on Thursday compared to Wednesday because of the lack of dynamical forcing within the trough over the Pacific NW.
Upper level trough with closed low and associated cold front will continue to drop down into the Southern Appalachians to begin the Thursday night period. Still some questions on severity of storms due to the timing of the cold front. The amount of shear and instability differ between the GFS and NAM soundings but both suggest that the tornado threat can't be completely ruled out due to modest shear with approaching trough. Some convection may drop down into the central valley along the cold front but not expecting the storms to be as strong due to further displacement from better dynamics.
240 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will lift north today and stall across the region through Thursday, serving as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period beneath high pressure aloft. Main weather story will be the excessive heat over the next several days as upper ridge begins to build into the southern plains.
422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The NAM and RAP models shows a warm front lifting into Southwestern Nebraska today. The warm front will lift through North Central Nebraska tonight. The RAP and HRRR models shows highs a few degrees warmer but these models mix very deeply.
239 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. High temperatures will be very similar to today (if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F once again. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure throughout the period. Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and centers over the Plains.
248 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will bring humid conditions along with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. Low pressure is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Better chances for precip are expected as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected Thursday night.
Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
155 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure will keep the area dry today with above normal temperatures. A few cirrus clouds are present this morning across central NY and northeast PA as we continue to be along the outer edge of the uppr lvl ridge. This system will send an elevated warm front across the region early this morning. There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder over the region as northern edge of the mid-lvl theta-e ridge pushes into the region, but since the majority of the precip is expected to be rain, left rain showers as the dominant ptype.
1007 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 Low pressure will result in unseasonably cool and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
301 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Upper ridging sits across the nrn Plains today ahead of the next trough which is over the Pac NW. but temps are now rising quickly into the low 80s. Low pressure will slide northeast into ND Thursday. Temps are expected to rise into the low 90s within the sw flow.
temps cooler than last few days but forecast has this covered well.
Diurnal convection weaker today than yesterday due to cooler sfc temps, low mid level lapse rates/moist adiabatic thermal profiles and resulting lower instability.
338 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Surface analysis at 20Z had a lee trough over the high plains of Texas with weak high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. That said, surface dewpoints are still in the low/mid 70s with upper 70s along the coast. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge positioned over much of S Texas. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with this ridge slowly retrograding and expanding over the southern Rockies for the end of the week and weekend.
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 A deep low pressure system over the region will continue cool and showery conditions into the weekend. Freezing temperatures will be unlikley tonight as high clouds move into the region but one more night of covering light frost sensitive plants may be needed in the Republic, WA area.
The current pattern involves ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. /issued 428 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridging will remain in place over Texas through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West.
323 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The early season heat wave will continue through the weekend as upper level high pressure remains in place across the region.
251 PM MST WED JUN 15 2016 An area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will keep temperatures across the region near to below normal through Thursday.
318 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring warmer and drier conditions tonight and Thursday. Expect another mostly cloudless day tomorrow, with temperatures a degree or two warmer than todays readings. The upper level ridge will dominate the central CONUS through the weekend.
1141 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Predawn water vapor loop depicted a large upper low just offshore the WA/British Columbia coast. The large scale high pressure ridge building over the nation/s midsection will be the dominant weather feature through the short term.
MLCAPE is building ahead of the surface cold front, from east of KEAU to KONA and southwest. Further east, the warm front is located along a line from northeast of KMDZ to KFLD. Overnight the cyclone will continue southeast and with it comes the widespread clouds now seen in MN. With the strong ridging building into place.
412 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Strengthening high pressure across western New York and Ontario will build eastward bringing a prolonged stretch of dry weather to the North Country through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and relatively low humidity levels are expected.
235 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will bring humid conditions along with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. Low pressure is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Better chances for precip are expected as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected Thursday night.
330 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The weak cold front backings southwest through central Nebraska and seen on the radar mosaic at this time could be a focus for isolated thunderstorms in the southwest this evening.
The massive upper ridge axis centered across the Tx Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu.
222 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across the Central US with a long fetch of drier ad advecting from Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. High temperatures will be very similar to today (if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F once again. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure throughout the period. Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and centers over the Plains.
348 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Strengthening high pressure across western New York and Ontario will build eastward bringing a prolonged stretch of dry weather to the North Country through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and relatively low humidity levels are expected.
403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas.
Showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the offing Thursday afternoon as an upper low, currently approaching the western Great Lakes, dives southeast across lower Michigan and into the Ohio Valley. Upper support will be best realized across the higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky where the previously mentioned upper low will approach as a decaying positively tilted trough. Upslope flow in the higher terrain behind the front will keep showers/storms lingering into the night.
It was partly to mostly cloudy across the Mid-State this evening, with temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 60s.
/Issued 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ Cold front remains along the Mid Mississippi River Valley while a warm front stretches across the Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic.
/issued 248 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ Wx map shows high pressure over the eastern Gulf with low pressure over the Plains yielding southerly flow over the region.
Temps have warmed to at or above freezing in Chip Co, and in addition they are seeing a short lull in precip. With a lengthy period of light winds tonight as the low moves thru, those cigs will lower further, resulting in considerable fog. Pressure gradient behind the weakening system is unimpressive, so only a weak push of cooler/drier low level air into the region. Meanwhile high pressure builds into MI from south central Canada. The low will bring an area of precipitation into southern MI Monday night.
958 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern MAN to the western ND. Upper trough will move across the area tonight and Mon morning. Little or no precipitation is expected with trough tonight and Mon morning. Tomorrow, winds will begin to pick up a bit as a trough of low pressure develops to the west and the high moves off to the east. Even with northeast to east winds there should be some warmer 925mb temps moving in from the west as weak upper ridging approaches.
Morning lows should be in the mid to upper 60s, while afternoon highs on Monday should climb back into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure and increasing upper-level heights will build across the region for early in the week.