Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a somewhat flattened pattern across the Nation, as a large trough moving across the Canadian Plains suppresses the broader ridge over the lower 48 States. The progress of the Canadian trough has forced a cold front south into the Plains States over the past couple of days, with the front currently analyzed from north central Iowa southwest into north central Kansas; and it is this front that will be a big player in our weather tonight through Wednesday, with the broader ridge over the lower 48 coming to dominate our weather for the weekend. we will be watching as storms develop along the cold front as it slowly sags into the hot and humid air mass across the Central Plains.
At 19z a longwave trough was seen on GOES water vapor imagery encompassing the northern two-thirds of the conus. Favorable lower/upper jet dynamics support shower and thunderstorm activity overnight into Wednesday morning, mainly near and south of the slowly sagging cold front.
High pressure moves in from the west later this afternoon, with dissipating rain chances even in the southeastern forecast area.
Seasonal weather is expected into the weekend, with mostly high pressure dominating.
The most noticeable cooling was in the vicinity of Gulfport where temperatures actually dropped down into the low to mid 70s as one of the stronger storms mixed down rain cooled air from aloft. Weather pattern will be a bit more active the next few days as ridging aloft weakens in response to a passing trough to the north.
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure will gradually push east of the area today.
Cooler temps prevail for a couple of days before the hottest weather of the season so far builds in for the weekend. TONIGHT: A wide range of temps indicate the placement of the cold front bisecting the area this afternoon. Southerly winds have pushed dewpoints into the low to mid 70s across southwest Iowa and lead to the area's best instability.
330 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The cold front has moved through the area, and temperatures have either leveled off or even started to fall due to the cold air advection and increased cloud cover. This is in response to a compact perturbation rounding the trough and an increasing upper level jet aloft. Skies should clear by mid to late morning, and winds should remain fairly light as high pressure slides by to our east.
some of which could be locally heavy given the high PWAT airmass that will be in place.
217 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Westerly flow continues across forecast area south of troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS and north of surface ridging over the Straits.
The heat and humidity will continue to be the big story over the next several days as an upper level ridge continues to expand over the southern plains.
However, there is about a 2 county wide corridor ahead of the cold front where storms are expected to initiate.
1129 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Much cooler conditions over the eastern plains today behind a cold front with max temps generally in the lower to mid 70s.
The winds will remain light and variable through this afternoon, and not provide much relief to the high heat indices forecast to top out between 102 to 107 this afternoon. For the rest of the afternoon, rain chances will remain very low due the high pressure dominating the area, so only expect spotty showers (10%) at best.
A quiet VFR TAF period ahead as high pressure continues to dominate our weather with few clouds and light and variable winds. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 95 73 95 74 / 0 10 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 94 73 94 74 / 0 10 0 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 95 71 95 73 / 0 10 0 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 92 69 92 70 / 0 20 0 30 20.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): Strong mid-level high pressure will continue to provide very warm and dry air across Deep South Texas through the short term. Ambient high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Valley to around 108 to 110 degrees near Falcon Lake. Fortunately, drier air in the low to mid levels is mixing down sufficiently, helping to keep heat indices below advisory criteria. High pressure will suppress any rain chances through Wednesday night, so no relief is on the horizon at this time.
Otherwise, outside of areas hampered by rain and/or clouds, temps have risen into the low to mid 90s which, combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, has resulted in heat indices over 105 in many areas. We're gradually seeing the worst heat indices shift more northward as we head deeper into the week as the upper ridge axis starts to lift northward. The upper ridge, while present, will be a bit more broad ridging and a weakness in the ridge will be present especially across the eastern part of the forecast area. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s through the period and dewpoints will remain in the 70s.
A short wave will move through the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night, providing the energy needed to generate at least a few thunderstorms in northern and western sections of the forecast area.
143 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Broad high pressure across the central Great Lakes will ensure that VFR conditions and dry weather remain in place across the airspace through the TAF period. Expect quiet weather today through Wednesday as ridging at the surface and aloft shift slowly east across the region.
North of a weak boundary into central SC, dew points values are in the lower 70s with precipitable water values of 1. Additional convection is also developing across the northern Midlands within a Theta-E ridge axis and where the greatest instability is located. Temperatures will be mild, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Upper ridge possibly retrograding during the period which may allow some upper level short waves to rotate through the area especially late in the period. The ECMWF still appears to hold the ridge over the region longer.
ahead of a cold front and in an axis of strong 850MB moisture transport. Re-firing/rejuvenation of thunderstorms expected again this afternoon into tonight as that cold front makes a surge southeast into the area. In addition, due to the relatively slow movement of the cold front and high precipitable water values around 2 inches, we'll have to keep an eye on torrential downpours/heavy rainfall with these storms. There will still be a chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight as that frontal boundary slides southeast and another mid-level trough rotate northeast along it.
301 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Conditions will remain dry tonight as a cold front and associated thunderstorm activity remain to the west.
Highs will top out in the upper 70s to lower 90s away from the coast, but much cooler at the coast with upper 50s to 60s.
Temperatures will climb to seasonal levels Wednesday and relative humidity will remain in the teens across the lower elevations and the lower 20s in the mountains.
716 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A cold front is crossing causing fairly heavy rain across northwest Wisconsin, but luckily it's on the move and it shouldn't be an issue for too many more hours.
840 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Thunderstorms have pushed south of Powder River and Carter counties and will stay south of the region tonight as drier air at the low levels move in. Temps will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday.
1011 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure is situated east of the region.
757 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure aloft will remain over NC through the end of the week. Aside from a few isolated light showers that may pop up across the Piedmont and drift to the southeast this afternoon, we are in a fair weather pattern now on the back side of the trough moving off the East Coast. Lows tonight should range from 65-70 NW-N into the lower 70s SE. Heat will continue to be the main wx story for Wednesday with afternoon high temps in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values a couple deg either side of 100. all thanks in part to a mid level ridge becoming settled over our area.
632 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Surface cold front has worked towards central Iowa with strato- cumulus field developing behind the front.
Once again the overall fcst looked pretty good for this late evening update as high pressure continues to dominate. VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure prevails favoring mostly a few low cu. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 95 73 94 74 / 0 10 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 94 73 94 74 / 0 10 0 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 95 72 94 72 / 0 10 0 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 92 69 92 70 / 0 20 0 40 20.
837 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Conditions will remain dry tonight as a cold front and associated thunderstorm activity remain to the west.
High pressure has begun to settle in over the region behind the exiting frontal boundary that was the focus for rain last night into this morning. This high will be the dominant feature over the area tonight and Wednesday before getting pushed southward by a weak frontal boundary Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s, with highs on Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with a shift on winds to a relatively light westerly winds, but will become east to northeast across the interior through Wednesday, as high pressure begins to move and expand over the southeast pushing easterly winds across the Peninsula.
In addition, a thermal trough will build across the coast today through Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures for coastal Del Norte and Humboldt counties.
Still not a whole lot going on in the short term as high pressure remains in control. Tonight, another pleasant evening is expected as dewpoints are still on the lower side. This will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 60s from the central TN Valley northward and mid to upper 60s central TN Valley and southward. This uptick in moisture will allow for slight chance POPs across the high terrain and foothills of the eastern TN mountains, southwest NC, and into portions of southwest VA.
But in the meanwhile, it looks like the ever so subtle shift of the low-level winds to the south along with the increases in speed have helped to keep heat index values over SETX at more manageable levels this afternoon. As a point of reference, normals for this time of year range from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s along the coast. As the mid/upper level ridge axis works its way to our north, models are continuing to show some decent agreement in the development of an inverted trough around the southern Louisiana area.
327 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Updated the short term late afternoon forecast package to include gusty winds along the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany County. Looking like a drier and warmer day based on 700 mb temperatures and low and mid level moisture profiles. Mostly dry with warmer temperatures as the airmass modifies.
339 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A cold front that pushed through the area this morning has brought much cooler air and increased low level moisture. Due to increased moisture at the lower levels, there will be a better chance for moderate to heavy rain with the convection. Farther north, small hail, wind gusts to 40 mph, and heavy rain will be the main threats with the storms A short wave trough in the west-northwest flow aloft is expected to bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late tonight and early Wednesday to eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, and far northeast Colorado. Surface temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the low 50s yield CAPE of 800-1300 J/kg.
928 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A cold front is crossing causing fairly heavy rain across northwest Wisconsin, but luckily it's on the move and it shouldn't be an issue for too many more hours.
642 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across southwestern WY this afternoon and is forecast to move across western Nebraska this evening and overnight. The higher chances near 40 percent will occur after midnight and mainly west of Highway 83. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern Plains into the sern U.
Pea size hail was reported near Lake Metigoshe, which should be on the higher end of hail possible with convection this evening.
708 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a somewhat flattened pattern across the Nation, as a large trough moving across the Canadian Plains suppresses the broader ridge over the lower 48 States. The progress of the Canadian trough has forced a cold front south into the Plains States over the past couple of days, with the front currently analyzed from north central Iowa southwest into north central Kansas; and it is this front that will be a big player in our weather tonight through Wednesday, with the broader ridge over the lower 48 coming to dominate our weather for the weekend. we will be watching as storms develop along the cold front as it slowly sags into the hot and humid air mass across the Central Plains.
403 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A weak, mainly dry cold front will stall and weaken across central Utah today. High pressure will shift into the southern Plains through midweek before slowly building back to the west by the weekend.
Upper ridging continued across the southwest CONUS this afternoon with upper troughs over New England and central Canada. Although clouds were slow to progress east of the area this morning, temperatures quickly warmed once clearing occurred with temperatures maxing out in the low 90s. Beyond Wednesday, the main concern becomes heat and humidity as the upper ridge moves over the Plains and hot air over the southwest US is advected into the region.
956 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A few showers may develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma again overnight much like last night, so will keep the low pops in place.
656 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The cold front has moved through the area, and temperatures have either leveled off or even started to fall due to the cold air advection and increased cloud cover. This is in response to a compact perturbation rounding the trough and an increasing upper level jet aloft. Skies should clear by mid to late morning, and winds should remain fairly light as high pressure slides by to our east.
540 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Updated the short term late afternoon forecast package to include gusty winds along the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany County. Looking like a drier and warmer day based on 700 mb temperatures and low and mid level moisture profiles. Mostly dry with warmer temperatures as the airmass modifies.
50-55mph wind gusts have been observed the last couple of hours with the stray rain shower activity over the high terrain along I-80. Updated the short term late afternoon forecast package to include gusty winds along the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany County. Looking like a drier and warmer day based on 700 mb temperatures and low and mid level moisture profiles. Mostly dry with warmer temperatures as the airmass modifies.
402 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Upper ridging continued across the southwest CONUS this afternoon with upper troughs over New England and central Canada. Although clouds were slow to progress east of the area this morning, temperatures quickly warmed once clearing occurred with temperatures maxing out in the low 90s. Beyond Wednesday, the main concern becomes heat and humidity as the upper ridge moves over the Plains and hot air over the southwest US is advected into the region.
736 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure is situated east of the region.
1038 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure builds in across the area on Wednesday for a relatively dry day and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
606 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Conditions will remain dry tonight as a cold front and associated thunderstorm activity remain to the west.
Temperatures will again be mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Upper ridge possibly retrograding during the period which may allow some upper level short waves to rotate through the area especially late in the period. The ECMWF still appears to hold the ridge over the region longer.
With the subtropical ridge still dominating the region, dry and very warm temperatures are again expected today. A small relief in temperatures is expected as the aforementioned ridge begins to weaken and 850 hPa temperatures cool off a few degrees; therefore, temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees cooler than previous days. Ridge aloft continues flattening by Thursday, while at the surface, southerly flow continues to bring low-level moisture in response to the high pressure drifting westward into the region.
130 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will gradually move off the New England coast today and tonight, then build from the Canadian Maritimes southward into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. Strong upper level ridging will continue to be centered from the TN Valley southeast and off the SC Coast through tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into NC from the NE-E as ridging builds down the east coast from ME to NC/SC later today and tonight. Highs again should top out in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies.
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A cold front is crossing causing fairly heavy rain across northwest Wisconsin, but luckily it's on the move and it shouldn't be an issue for too many more hours.
1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 The cold front has moved through the area, and temperatures have either leveled off or even started to fall due to the cold air advection and increased cloud cover. This is in response to a compact perturbation rounding the trough and an increasing upper level jet aloft. Skies should clear by mid to late morning, and winds should remain fairly light as high pressure slides by to our east.
249 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Today, an upper trough advances east to replace the ridging that is currently over the Ohio Valley. The resulting high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will make for another hot day. Tonight, the upper trough becomes near stationary as in nears the Ohio River. At the surface, a co-located saturated axis of low pressure will combine with the moist southerly flow to push precipitable water values over 2" across Indiana. This combination ahead of an advancing cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms over southwestern Indiana as we head into Thursday morning.
Wednesday night, an upper level trough is expected to make its way into our area and the Northland will see chances for more showers and thunderstorms late. An upper trough will extend south through Minnesota Thursday morning with a weak cold front west of the Northland.
At the base of a broad upper level trough, a number of weak subtle waves have been noted on Water Vapor satellite imagery, traversing the Northern Plains early this morning. Temperatures will be a bit warmer this afternoon as the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge tries to nudge in.
1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across southwestern WY this afternoon and is forecast to move across western Nebraska this evening and overnight. The higher chances near 40 percent will occur after midnight and mainly west of Highway 83. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern Plains into the sern U.
128 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will linger atop region into the weekend.
It will be slightly cooler than normal with coastal clouds extending into portions of the inland valleys nights and mornings through Thursday.
145 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Cold front and bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity now south and east of the immediate forecast area with even some clearing across northcentral WI into southeast MN. Precipitation and cloud cover pushes southeast of the area tonight as high pressure builds in. High pressure shifts southeast of the area Thursday which sets warm air advection up across our area. A weak cold front pushes southeast out of northern MN into northern WI Thursday night but it appears and showers/storms should stay north of our area.
Warmer temperatures will spread back east today with mainly dry conditions as convection looks to be suppressed to the south. Quite warm across the CWA Thursday as the upper high centered over the southern Rockys builds a bit northward.
112 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A ridge of High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday, favoring mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Warm temperatures expected with warmer portions of Columbia basin reaching into mid 90s. Flow backs to more westerly Wednesday night in advance of approaching front/trough that will swing through the region Thursday.
147 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will gradually move off the New England coast today and tonight, then build from the Canadian Maritimes southward into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. Strong upper level ridging will continue to be centered from the TN Valley southeast and off the SC Coast through tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into NC from the NE-E as ridging builds down the east coast from ME to NC/SC later today and tonight. Highs again should top out in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies.
Once again the overall fcst looked pretty good for this late evening update as high pressure continues to dominate. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 73 94 74 96 / 10 0 30 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 94 74 93 / 10 0 30 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 94 72 93 / 10 0 30 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 69 92 70 89 / 10 10 40 20 70.
Wed, upper ridging over the Midwest will break down, and a zonal flow regime will ensue for the Nrn half of the CONUS, while to the south, a broad area of upper high pressure will settle in. At the sfc, the Natural State will continue to swelter under very hot and humid conditions with fcst high T's in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s will promote another day filled with heat index values over 105 degrees for much of the fcst region, prompting the issuance of another heat advisory. AR will be on the Nrn periphery of an upper-lvl anticyclone, with short term guidance progging a robust perturbation and vorticity max to traverse through the upper high, and move across the Nrn Ozarks late Thurs night/early Fri morning.
But in the meanwhile, it looks like the ever so subtle shift of the low-level winds to the south along with the increases in speed have helped to keep heat index values over SETX at more manageable levels this afternoon. As a point of reference, normals for this time of year range from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s along the coast.
another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives in far eastern Colorado by late afternoon around an upper level high centered over south central Oklahoma. High temperatures return to normal with readings in the low 90s. Upper ridge and weak flow aloft will be the main feature of the extended.
That dry air through a depth in the atmosphere, with just the tiniest of breezes, has mixed down to the surface this afternoon and dropped dew points into the low 60s and even a few 50s east of I-65. Coupled with the upper ridge that's expected to build in here, that spells triple digit Heat Index values, at least for the western 2/3 of Middle TN for the last half of the week and into the weekend. What could keep these extreme and even dangerous temps/feels-like temps from happening? This approaching ridge that has been advertised in the models isn't one of those strong north-to-south amplified ridges; it's elongated west-to-east across the southern half of the U.
However, there is about a 2 county wide corridor ahead of the cold front where storms are expected to initiate. We should see some dry time Wednesday night through Thursday night with high pressure in control.