Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
231 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Upper ridge returns to Montana today with temperatures that will be near 100 in many areas today. On Sunday, the hottest temperatures move to the eastern end of the forecast area as the ridge axis drifts into the Dakotas. There will be enough west winds in the west Sunday afternoon with RH in the low teens for a Red Flag Warning in the west.
Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will bring mainly fair weather with hot temps for the holiday weekend.
1208 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 High pressure will cross the region overnight, then begin to move slowly east Saturday.
Discussion: Upper level trough remains nearly stationary over the mid Mississippi Valley today. A weak upper level ridge also continues across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will still be over the northeast and the Mid- Atlantic. 4 inches and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. From Morristown southwestward some light showers have occurred and temperatures are still in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
These showers and storms have formed just ahead or on the cold front that is moving slowly into the area this morning. Main question today are the chances for showers and storms with the cold front as it moves south into the area. Proximity of the low may lead to some isolated showers in our far south and southeastern counties, but more dry time is expected than rainy. This low will finally make it's way out of the area by midweek.
With this, a weak cold front will slide south into the area as well.
329 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A surface cold front moved across the CWA last evening leaving a much drier airmass behind it. Cooler highs are expected today as compared to yesterday, with readings primarily in the low 80s. This is between upper-level ridging building across the western CONUS while troughing takes hold across the eastern CONUS. By Labor Day, the upper ridge is forecast to build east into the central Plains pushing temperatures into above normal reaches once again.
217 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) The upper trough to our northwest over the mid MS River Valley is working to develop showers and storms over the area, but so far has struggled with the drier air aloft. Models do disagree a bit on the strength of the instability/shear, but it remains on the lower end, so widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
115 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Water vapor shows broad western CONUS ridge extending into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis folds into the Northern Plains later today and Sunday, with temps warming well into the 90s by Sunday and possibly near 100 on the plains east of the Black Hills. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier.
The main player in the short term will be a slow moving mid-level trough that is making its way through the region today. This feature will force a slow moving weak cold front through the area today. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the northwestern CWA where the front will pass early in the day to the mid to upper 80s across the southern CWA.
411 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 High pressure ridge axis continues to lift north this morning as ridging aloft builds over the state as well. A little drier air with the ridge aloft will lower rain chances more into the scattered range each afternoon and evening.
(Today) Scattered showers/thunderstorms have shifted east of the region early this morning with upper low. Upper low, which brought the beneficial rainfall yesterday, is forecast to stall over the mid Miss River Valley today.
Today through Sunday There is no real change to the hot and dry pattern over the next three days, as strong ridging over the Rockies holds strong. The warmer spots like Greybull and Worland have a good chance of reaching 100 degrees.
101 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Rest of tonight) Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, as a positively-sheared mid-level trough drifts slowly southeastward across eastern MO/western IL. This, along with light southeasterly flow in the low-levels, will maintain a very deep layer of moist air across the region, with precipitable water values expected to remain in the 1. Regarding temperatures, we expect a warmer night, with lows on Saturday morning only falling a few more degrees into the lower 70s.
230 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move slowly east today and tonight, reaching the Tennessee Valley by late Sunday.
Models cont to show an elongated upper trof axis persisting acrs the FA the next few days.
634 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper high pressure is currently situated across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest region early this morning. The high will will expand a bit more eastward the next 24 hours, allowing the weak upper trough over our area to shift a bit farther south and east through tonight. Although rain chances will continue to affect much of the area generally south of Interstate 20 today, the highest rain chances will shift southward across the Northwest Hill Country into the northern Edwards Plateau region. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s across the Big Country where less cloud cover is expected, to the lower and middle 80s along the I-10 corridor.
The area will remain in between a large upper high to the west and upper low well to the east, with northerly flow in place.
525 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Water vapor shows broad western CONUS ridge extending into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis folds into the Northern Plains later today and Sunday, with temps warming well into the 90s by Sunday and possibly near 100 on the plains east of the Black Hills. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier. A weak cold front passage this morning will bring breezy northwesterly winds to the western SD plains through the afternoon.
638 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move slowly east today and tonight, reaching the Tennessee Valley by late Sunday.
311 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Exiting trof early this morning as remaining showers have shifted southward out of our county warning area and across southeast Colorado. High pressure ridge aloft centered over Utah early this morning will expand northeastward and encompass through the northern high plains by this evening. There will be some slight cooling behind last evening's trof passage but only about 2-5 degrees. The exception may be over the higher mountains, especially across Summit and Park counties where some residual moisture and modest instability may spark scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be centered over Utah on Sunday, and will remain in place for much of the forecast period.
For today, mostly cloudy conditions for southern two-third of the forecast area with a slight chance of showers/thunder near/along the International border where PW values are the highest around 1. Highs today a few degrees cooler than yesterday or right around early September normals. Highs at or a few degrees warmer than Sunday.
303 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A high amplitude upper level ridge extended from MT to the Four Corners region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 50s to mid 60s. The 598 dm ridge center will remain nearly stationary over UT through Sunday. An increasing south to southwest flow aloft south of the trough will raise high temperatures Sunday afternoon 5 to 8 degrees with 700mb temperatures from 16 to 20 degrees Celsius.
High pressure ridge axis continues to lift north this morning as ridging aloft builds over the state as well. A little drier air with the ridge aloft will lower rain chances more into the scattered range each afternoon and evening.
These showers and storms have formed just ahead or on the cold front that is moving slowly into the area this morning. Main question today are the chances for showers and storms with the cold front as it moves south into the area. Proximity of the low may lead to some isolated showers in our far south and southeastern counties, but more dry time is expected than rainy. This low will finally make it's way out of the area by midweek. Cold front moving through area will lead to a wind shift and widely scattered showers and storms.
446 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern plains with low over the northwestern CONUS. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the Rockies nudging into the plains. For today, ridge will be the dominating factor keeping clear and dry conditions over our area. After our brief reprieve from hot weather yesterday, the heat starts to make its return today as ridge axis shifts east. In the meantime, aforementioned northwestern CONUS low moves over the Rockies, with lee trough deepening.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern plains with low over the northwestern CONUS. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the Rockies nudging into the plains. For today, ridge will be the dominating factor keeping clear and dry conditions over our area. After our brief reprieve from hot weather yesterday, the heat starts to make its return today as ridge axis shifts east. In the meantime, aforementioned northwestern CONUS low moves over the Rockies, with lee trough deepening.
However, further west, return flow winds will develop as a gradient sets up between the exiting high pressure and a trough building out of the Rockies.
(Today and tonight) Upper high pressure is currently situated across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest region early this morning. The high will will expand a bit more eastward the next 24 hours, allowing the weak upper trough over our area to shift a bit farther south and east through tonight. Although rain chances will continue to affect much of the area generally south of Interstate 20 today, the highest rain chances will shift southward across the Northwest Hill Country into the northern Edwards Plateau region. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s across the Big Country where less cloud cover is expected, to the lower and middle 80s along the I-10 corridor.
532 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A high amplitude upper level ridge extended from MT to the Four Corners region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 50s to mid 60s. The 598 dm ridge center will remain nearly stationary over UT through Sunday. An increasing south to southwest flow aloft south of the trough will raise high temperatures Sunday afternoon 5 to 8 degrees with 700mb temperatures from 16 to 20 degrees Celsius.
640 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the upper Great Lakes and a ridge over the Rockies. The trough axis moves to the east today. An upper level ridge over the western U. The ridge will flatten late in the week as multiple disturbances move over the top of the ridge.
520 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Labor Day weekend looks to be pleasant with slightly cooler than last week temperatures and dry conditions. The Tri-State area is expected to be under northerly to northeasterly flow aloft as it sits between the positively-tilted upper trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and the upper ridge over the Great Basin. The ridge is expected to remain dominant over the area through the period with an upper low moving east along the Canadian border from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s today for highs and the low to mid 50s overnight. Sunday looks to be slightly warmer with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 50s.
622 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonally cool temperatures this holiday weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows dipping to the 40s.
621 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Today) Scattered showers/thunderstorms have shifted east of the region early this morning with upper low. Upper low, which brought the beneficial rainfall yesterday, is forecast to stall over the mid Miss River Valley today.
(Rest of Today) A low pressure system over SE MO will slowly drift east today before stalling near the OH River Valley later in the weekend. A band of showers can currently be seen moving east through MS, where better forcing for ascent exists along the trough axis.
This is being driven by the approach of an upper short wave trough and increasing deep layer southerlies with precipitable water at 1. The increased cloud cover tonight will help hold temperatures several degrees warmer than normal and mainly in the lower 70s again.
Weak upper level trough moving through the area this morning. Upper level ridge will briefly rebuilding this afternoon and tonight.
A surface cold front moved across the CWA last evening leaving a much drier airmass behind it. Cooler highs are expected today as compared to yesterday, with readings primarily in the low 80s. This is between upper-level ridging building across the western CONUS while troughing takes hold across the eastern CONUS. By Labor Day, the upper ridge is forecast to build east into the central Plains pushing temperatures into above normal reaches once again.
554 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Today) Today will mark the beginning of a wet, active pattern as a slow- moving area of low pressure moves into the Deep South and Tennessee Valley region.
533 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Exiting trof early this morning as remaining showers have shifted southward out of our county warning area and across southeast Colorado. High pressure ridge aloft centered over Utah early this morning will expand northeastward and encompass through the northern high plains by this evening. There will be some slight cooling behind last evening's trof passage but only about 2-5 degrees. The exception may be over the higher mountains, especially across Summit and Park counties where some residual moisture and modest instability may spark scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be centered over Utah on Sunday, and will remain in place for much of the forecast period.
A nearly stationary mid-level trough over the Mid-MS Valley will provide persistent synoptic-scale lift through the Short Term. Weak upper trof axis will remain draped roughly from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward into Texas for much of the upcoming week as it is trapped between flat ridging along the Carolina coast and a more amplified ridge over the Intermountain West.
Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s, with peak heat indices up to 106. Temperatures slowly drop to the low 80s this evening, and low to mid 70s overnight. The highest chances for thunderstorm impacts are at the inland terminals, where TEMPO groups are in place from approx.
TFJ Upper ridge returns to Montana today with temperatures that will be near 100 in many areas today. On Sunday, the hottest temperatures move to the eastern end of the forecast area as the ridge axis drifts into the Dakotas. There will be enough west winds in the west Sunday afternoon with RH in the low teens for a Red Flag Warning in the west.
Weak upper level trough moving through the area this morning. Upper level ridge briefly rebuilding this afternoon and tonight.
High pressure continues to ridge over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with light ESE winds becoming westerly close to the coast each afternoon.
This will continue to be the case for the next several days and beyond as a dominant ridge sits over the western US with very dry air in place. A compact upper low will get pushed around the northern periphery of the ridge tonight through Sunday. Fire Weather Watches currently in place for central and western portions of the area have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings in response to the high likelihood of strong winds (gusts 20 to 35 mph) in these zones combined with RH of 5 to 15%. The very strong H5 ridge will remain centered on Utah for the first part of the extended, keeping the run of near-record September heat going.
250 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Shower and storm activity increases into the new work week as an upper level low sends several disturbances out of the southwest. This low will usher a warm frontal surge overnight which will bring a round of heavier showers. Showers and thunderstorms will continue during the period as a cold frontal boundary slowly approaches the area, and moisture streams northward on southerly flow, with an upper trough to our west.
For Sunday the higher PoPs will rotate toward the east and extend across the south and east.
While heights won't be rising ( indicating the trough is filling) overnight, the gradient will relax across the trough as the isoheights become more spread out. One exception to this will be on the southeastern flank of the trough as it impinges on the subtropical high centered over the southeastern US coasts. By Sunday, the upper gradient tightens further with both marginal upper heights falls to our west and height rises associated with the subtropical ridge to our east.
1113 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A high amplitude upper level ridge extended from MT to the Four Corners region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 50s to mid 60s. The 598 dm ridge center will remain nearly stationary over UT through Sunday. An increasing south to southwest flow aloft south of the trough will raise high temperatures Sunday afternoon 5 to 8 degrees with 700mb temperatures from 16 to 20 degrees Celsius.
Water vapor imagery exposes a trof over Hudson Bay and a ridge anchored to the Great Basin. This leaves weak northerly flow over the Great Plains behind the departing cold front. The ridge out west grows in strength and footprint over the course of Sunday and most of the work week.
155 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A positively-tilted upper trough over the Great Lakes will gradually advance toward the state, and eventually suppress the currently dominant ridge along the eastern seaboard.
Exiting trof early this morning as remaining showers have shifted southward out of our county warning area and across southeast Colorado. High pressure ridge aloft centered over Utah early this morning will expand northeastward and encompass through the northern high plains by this evening. There will be some slight cooling behind last evening's trof passage but only about 2-5 degrees. The exception may be over the higher mountains, especially across Summit and Park counties where some residual moisture and modest instability may spark scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be centered over Utah on Sunday, and will remain in place for much of the forecast period.
456 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A positively-tilted upper trough over the Great Lakes will gradually advance toward the state, and eventually suppress the currently dominant ridge along the eastern seaboard.
THIS AFTERNOON: A perfect Saturday afternoon continues across the area thanks to light winds, full sunshine, and cooler than normal temperatures. Long wave ridging will continue to build over the CONUS this week, with increasing heights spreading eastward.
High pressure north of the Great Lakes will slide southeast some tonight and then become stationary for the next several days. Light southeasterly surface flow and a building mid level ridge will allow for temperatures to trend above normal through the week with highs in the 80s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) An inverted coastal trough is pushing onshore and merging with southerly moving outflow boundaries from storms that initiated along the I-10 corridor earlier this afternoon. We'll get a brief lull tonight, but with enhanced forcing from the inverted trough near the coast and the stationary front stalled somewhere south of I-10, showers and storms will begin to develop south of I-10 late tonight and through tomorrow, leading to another day of widespread showers and storms across Southeast Texas, with most coverage expected south of I-10. Tomorrow night will reach the low 70s once again.
(This evening through Sunday night) Showers and storms are forming south of the area along boundaries that pushed through the Panhandle this morning as surface convergence is providing a little extra support along with the higher dewpoints and CAPE to the south. While the boundary to the south will focus better chances for storms, multiple S/WVs (show up best at H3) will roll across the area on the backside of a trough that continues to deepen from Lake Michigan SW into N Cen TX. That said, there is a modest theta-e ridge out ahead of the s/wv and it will be timed near the time of peak heating with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/KG and minimal cap.
Upper level ridge remains well northwest through tomorrow afternoon. Some of the high res models have some convection even north of I-20 tomorrow afternoon so will run the PoPs all the way north into Haskell and Throckmorton.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper trough over the the Mississippi River Valley extends SW down across TX splitting the ridge into two region, one over UT and the other over the Atlantic Coast. This trough deepens on Sunday and helps to keep high pressure blocked to the west. Highs will be in the 80s to the lower 90s.
224 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A strong upper level high keeps our region under northwesterly winds aloft. MLCAPE increases to 500-700 J/kg in the higher terrain this afternoon into early evening, isolated to scattered showers are possible until 5PM. With Denver's daily record high being 97 set in 1995, it is not out of the question that we could tie this given the lack of cloud cover but most short-term and RAW guidance keeps us near the high of 95. Strong upper level high will be centered over Utah for much of the week and bring very warm temperatures to most of the western U.
(This evening through Sunday night) Upper troughing extending from the western Great Lakes to the Texas-Louisiana border isn't going much of anywhere over the next 36 hours. An upper low associated with the trough looks to be developing near St. Another energy max will move through the base of the trough during the daytime hours tomorrow.
The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon contains longwave ridging over the Rockies and High Plains, and a longwave trough from Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes. A cooler air mass associated with the downstream high will keep afternoon temperatures in the 70s across eastern North Dakota. Highs will be progressively warmer to the west, with lower 90s near the Montana border. A light but persistent southerly breeze overnight should keep low temperatures warmer than last night, despite a cloud-free sky. Highs on Sunday are likely to be a few degrees warmer than today, ranging from around 80 east to the mid 90s west. This will once again keep the lowest afternoon humidity in western North Dakota, where winds should be slightly weaker than the 20 mph sustained southerly wind expected across central North Dakota.
111 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 High pressure ridging building in across the region with plenty of dry air and a cooler air mass has supported a cool and mostly sunny day for most of the UP. An upper level ridge over the western U. The ridge will flatten late in the week as multiple disturbances move over the top of the ridge.
This feature is associated with the mid/upper level low that will continue to be the main driver of our weather over the next few days. By tonight, the mid/upper level low is expected to stall out. On Sunday, the low actually retrogrades slightly westward so chances of showers also expand back west of the Mississippi River.
1129 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A positively-tilted upper trough over the Great Lakes will gradually advance toward the state, and eventually suppress the currently dominant ridge along the eastern seaboard.