Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With PWAT in the neighborhood of 2 inches and decent buoyancy in the lower levels, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue to a concern with slower moving convection. Although upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development, they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation in a couple of days. A cold front will push south into the mid sections of Mississippi and Alabama.
Showers and storms will be scarce for much of this week due to a strong dome of high pressure over the region. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the region through Tuesday night. Drier air aloft will continue to rotate around the high and into NM limiting convection.
As the trough passes, it will do little more than bring some mid/high clouds and a wind shift out of the north. Dewpoints Wednesday will likely only rise to the low 50s. We will enter a more active pattern by the weekend as several mid/upper- level waves ride of the ridge to the west and dive into the central Plains.
230 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Developing cold front across the central Plains will drop southeast today, and will stretch across southeast KS into northwest OK by late afternoon. Late day heating along with improving low-level moisture will yield MLCAPES around 2000-2500 J/KG, with isolated/scattered convection possible toward 00Z along the advancing cold front.
MUCAPE in excess of 1,200 j/kg, bulk shear of 40 knots, low-level SRH of 200+ m2/s2, dew points near 60F, and DCAPE of 1,000+ j/kg are the favorable parameters ahead of an incoming cold front. Moisture return is still meager thanks to a ridge over western TX blocking Gulf moisture. In the wake of this cold front, expect cooler and breezy conditions Wednesday.
1110 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A cold front swings through on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some showers and gusty afternoon winds. Some model members try to saturate the lower BL and realize some upright convection, but this is an especially lower confidence scenario. Wednesday features slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of this system with a slight chance of diurnal showers in central Wisconsin within the continued cyclonic flow. Upper level ridging slides eastward for the latter half of the week, keeping dry weather and a seasonal airmass in place.
Clouds will be on the increase from the north to south as an upper level trough transitions through the central CONUS this evening into tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front that slides through the area. Behind the frontal passage, northerly winds will allow a slightly cooler air mass to filter into the region. For Wednesday, temperatures will top out in the lower 80s across the area with a pleasant northerly breeze.
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The highlights of the short term forecast are gusty winds and near critical fire weather conditions. While southwestern North Dakota will still see gusts up to 30 mph, high pressure nudging closer during the afternoon hours will relax the pressure gradient a bit more than areas further north and east. Winds will rapidly diminish tonight as aforementioned high pressure propagates into the western Dakotas. As cooler air continues to advect in through the day today, high temperatures will be much more pleasant than yesterday topping out in the 70s for most locations. To start the period, the region will be in northwestern flow aloft as a west CONUS ridge remains in place.
Surfacing ridging centered over the majority of Arkansas and southern Missouri has left our area with another clear and warm day. Overnight, temps will dip into the lower 60s before reaching back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, cooler conditions are expected to follow with afternoon highs in the lower 80s. A cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 16Z-18Z veering winds to the WNW and eventually to the NNW aft 21Z-23Z while remaining btn 10-15kts.
256 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 If it wasn't for the smoke we would be seeing mainly clear blue skies over the next few days as high pressure is in control of the pattern and very dry air is in place. Rockies the center of the high pressure cell is favorable for smoke to continuously rotate into the Great Basin.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1015 mb ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. This ridge of high pressure combined with a very dry airmass in place as noted by GOES-16 Satellite trends is resulting in clear skies, nearly calm winds, and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT in the 60s to middle 70s across the forecast area. /issued 339 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ The latest surface analysis places a cold front south of our area allowing for clear skies. The aforementioned weak cold front looks to be a dry one with limited chances of precipitation. Thankfully this cold front will lower dewpoints for the region. A ridge will build in from the west allowing for dry weather.
This wave will quickly deepen over the Great Lakes region today with a strong cold front pushing southward across Kansas. Low level convergence looks to increase between 4-7pm across southeast Kansas along the cold front. Afternoon heat indices will be in the low 100s across southern Kansas.
1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An extremely quiet weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week as substantial upper-level ridging becomes established across the western CONUS w/ a 596-597 dam high centered across the Great Basin. A strong short- wave sweeping across the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes region should keep temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than today, but temperatures will begin to quickly rebound by Wednesday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward. A bit breezy across southeast Wyoming today given strong low-level mixing and appreciable flow aloft, but winds will not be quite as strong over the next few days as the center of the ridge drifts toward the Four Corners.
In the low levels, an associated cold front will advance through the northern Plains tonight and through the mid MO Valley on Tuesday. In regard to the cold front, latest RAP/HRRR forecasts suggest that the boundary will move into our northwest counties by 10z (5 AM Tuesday) before reaching the Omaha and Lincoln areas by 13z (8 AM). Wednesday through the weekend: A prominent mid-level ridge over the interior west is forecast to expand east into the Great Plains through the remainder of the work week.
358 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecasted today, followed by another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front crosses the region.
146 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A weak cold front moving into the area will stall tonight and remain across the region through Wednesday creating mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
451 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 GA will remain on the southern fringes of a Great Lakes upper trough through the short term. By Wed night the upper level trough centered over the Great Lake states will have pushed south into the southern states along with a second surface frontal boundary pushing into NW GA. The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the tropical wave south and east across the state.
Subsidence influenced by the eastern fringes of an upper level ridge centered over NV/UT will combine with northerly flow continuing to steer dry air into the region to keep PoPs virtually negligible for the duration of the short term forecast period.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) The upper level ridge continues to build over the Intermountain West. Highs on Tuesday will be hot with mid to upper 90s across the plains, upper 80s in the mountains, and above 100 along the Rio Grande as the 850 mb thermal ridge moves east into our western areas. Precipitation will be limited to the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, Glass Mountains, and Big Bend Region. Orographic ascent and daytime heating will allow for isolated convection to develop, despite weak subsidence under the ridge, during the afternoon. Wednesday is a similar story to Tuesday, though temperatures should be a degree or to cooler.
Model guidance is in pretty good agreement with the low level trough/frontal boundary features. Through this morning, the trough will move east across western Kansas ahead of the southward advancing cold front which should move through much of southwest Kansas by late morning. The cooler airmass will linger through Wednesday with near normal high temperatures in the 80s expected across the area. Upper level high pressure that has been parked over the Intermountain West the past few days will be building east toward the Plains through the rest of the week.
115 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A nearly stationary front over southeastern NC will dissipate today as weak high pressure builds from WVA and VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. The high pressure will move offshore tonight allowing some moisture return.
A new cold front will drop SE towards the state at the end of this TAF period. Tonight Through Wednesday An upper ridge continues centered over Nevada with an upper trough over the northeast. The ridge will only move slightly east through Wednesday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s tonight and Tuesday night.
1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Other than some ongoing scattered mid to upper level clouds across southern and central Oklahoma and far portions of northwestern Oklahoma, clear skies and warmer temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough will begin digging into the Great Lakes region, and begin pulling a cold front through Kansas and begin entering far northwestern Oklahoma, resulting in strong northerly winds behind the front.
/issued 451 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Another 500mb trough swings across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as the mid level ridge remains anchored across the Desert SW. Another cold front sweeps south into northern Texas surging drier air southward before generally dissipating.
715 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Aviation - Upper Troughing and Severe Threat today followed by deamplification to quasi-zonal flow regime Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening with strong, unidirectional shear profiles indicating storm type will be linear with blowing line segments bringing primarily downburst wind threat but also QLCS tornado possibility. Environmental winds are strong with 40 to 50 knots near 5 kft AGL and some of this could mix down in the cold air advection behind the cold front, but more likely in any solid line of convection along or ahead of the front. Scattered showers will persist on Wednesday under upper troughing with diurnal and lake enhancement in the cool air.
This feature will result in slightly cooler temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 80s across southeast Wyoming and all of western Nebraska. The upper level high responsible for the above normal temperatures across the western third of the United States will move very little over the next few days based on model trends.
627 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Temperatures across the area range from the mid 40s west to generally the lower to mid 50s east. The highlights of the short term forecast are gusty winds and near critical fire weather conditions. While southwestern North Dakota will still see gusts up to 30 mph, high pressure nudging closer during the afternoon hours will relax the pressure gradient a bit more than areas further north and east. Winds will rapidly diminish tonight as aforementioned high pressure propagates into the western Dakotas. As cooler air continues to advect in through the day today, high temperatures will be much more pleasant than yesterday topping out in the 70s for most locations. To start the period, the region will be in northwestern flow aloft as a west CONUS ridge remains in place.
531 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Mean western CONUS ridging will support overall warm and dry weather through this week. Breezy NW winds can be expected across the NW through central SD plains today on the backside of the departing upper trough.
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A weak cold front stalls out across the Region through Wednesday, creating mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, high pressure will provide nice VFR conditions today.
Strong high pressure will bring hot afternoons and dry weather to the region through at least mid week. High pressure along the NV/UT border today will bring near record temperatures to much of northern and central NV with valley locations warming up into the 90s. Flow around the upper level high will help keep most of central NV air much less hazy, as the fires are generally over northern and central CA. On Wednesday the center of high pressure will drift east-southeast toward the four corners region.
Temperatures across the area range from the mid 40s west to generally the lower to mid 50s east. The highlights of the short term forecast are gusty winds and near critical fire weather conditions. While southwestern North Dakota will still see gusts up to 30 mph, high pressure nudging closer during the afternoon hours will relax the pressure gradient a bit more than areas further north and east. Winds will rapidly diminish tonight as aforementioned high pressure propagates into the western Dakotas. As cooler air continues to advect in through the day today, high temperatures will be much more pleasant than yesterday topping out in the 70s for most locations. To start the period, the region will be in northwestern flow aloft as a west CONUS ridge remains in place.
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A ridge of high pressure will drift east across Pennsylvania today while an ill-defined stationary frontal boundary stretches over the southern tier counties of the state.
518 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 If it wasn't for the smoke we would be seeing mainly clear blue skies over the next few days as high pressure is in control of the pattern and very dry air is in place. Rockies the center of the high pressure cell is favorable for smoke to continuously rotate into the Great Basin.
Unseasonably hot and dry condtions are forecast through the week as strong high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners. With very dry air in place, overnight low temperatures are forecast to be on the cooler side. Drying of the atmosphere over NM continues under the influence of an expansive upper high, centered over NV at an anomalously high (for early Sep. Today's highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above normal and several degrees warmer than yesterday's. The upper high will continue to dominate Wednesday, with similar high temperatures forecast across our area.
A cold front will drop south into the state tonight into Wed morning. A new cold front will drop SE into the state late this evening and overnight.
439 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Wednesday as a strong ridge persists over the western CONUS. This morning, a weak cold front is slowly advancing southwestward and will get hung up along the Continental Divide. The dry northwest flow becomes more westerly on Wednesday as the ridge axis approaches the area. The only notable change from Tuesday will be warmer highs, about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.
Fog should diminish by mid- morning with daytime mixing, leaving mostly sunny skies and dry conditions under high pressure.
1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Update - Upper Troughing and Severe Threat today followed by deamplification to quasi-zonal flow regime There are currently 2 lines of thunderstorms heading this way. The latest guidance still shows 1500 j/kg mix layer cape this afternoon and the low level jet still is forecast to strengthen this afternoon as it moves across our CWA. Environmental winds are strong with 40 to 50 knots near 5 kft AGL and some of this could mix down in the cold air advection behind the cold front, but more likely in any solid line of convection along or ahead of the front. Scattered showers will persist on Wednesday under upper troughing with diurnal and lake enhancement in the cool air.
340 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Wednesday as a strong ridge persists over the western CONUS. This morning, a weak cold front is slowly advancing southwestward and will get hung up along the Continental Divide. The dry northwest flow becomes more westerly on Wednesday as the ridge axis approaches the area. The only notable change from Tuesday will be warmer highs, about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Short wave trough entering Ontario continues to amplify or strengthen this morning. Will be watching southern extent of convection as associated cold front pushes through the area. As this passing wave becomes closed upper low north of Great Lakes we transition into cooler Wednesday with autumn-like clouds and possibility of some diurnal showers in northwest flow. By Wednesday night, skies should clear off again and with cooler temperatures and light winds, will have to watch favored bog areas in central Wisconsin for any frost possibilities.
Today will see mostly sunny skies with a gusty south to southwest wind at times (up to 20kts) this afternoon in response to an approaching cold front. This cold front will also be the focus for some spotty shower and storm activity this evening and overnight. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area relatively quickly. Confidence on cold front timing is high but precipitation chances are still somewhat uncertain due to the activity being isolated to widely scattered in nature. /Issued 230 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ Developing cold front across the central Plains will drop southeast today, and will stretch across southeast KS into northwest OK by late afternoon. Late day heating along with improving low-level moisture will yield MLCAPES around 2000-2500 J/KG, with isolated/scattered convection possible toward 00Z along the advancing cold front.
730 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 GA will remain on the southern fringes of a Great Lakes upper trough through the short term. By Wed night the upper level trough centered over the Great Lake states will have pushed south into the southern states along with a second surface frontal boundary pushing into NW GA. The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the tropical wave south and east across the state.
749 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecasted today, followed by another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front crosses the region.
A clear and seasonably mild night is taking shape across the TN Valley, with current temps in the lower to mid 60s. Flow aloft will generally be zonal, as the TN Valley remains situated between ridging over the West and off the Atlantic coast and a trough to the north. Temps will be a few degrees warmer tonight, given the southerly flow bringing in higher dewpoints during the day, and expect lows in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will trail from this low, south-southwestward through the Mississippi Valley. The trough will quickly move eastward, helping the cold front advance through the TN Valley during the day Wednesday. Behind the front, a brief glimpse of Fall is expected as high pressure settles in across the region and northerly flow advects a cooler air mass into the region.
Temperature wise, we should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 87 64 83 / 20 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 86 63 81 / 20 10 30 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 68 85 60 81 / 10 10 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 84 61 79 / 10 10 40 40 0.
610 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Cold front working its way through the region early this morning although any meaningful moisture displaced to our northeast and thus main impact from its passage will be in the way of gustier winds. Outside of the breezier conditions, a quiet Tuesday expected with the frontal passage flushing out yesterday's upper level wildfire smoke as well as ushering in cooler temperatures. Likely enough of a pressure gradient on the backside of the Great Lakes troughing to keep breezier conditions into Wednesday afternoon, although not as strong as today's anticipated gusts. Upper level ridging continues to build to the west through the second half of the work week.
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 High pressure remains in control through tonight keeping conditions dry. Another cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cool and dry high pressure settles back into the region for the end of the week. Dry conditions continue into tonight as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Return to summer Wednesday ahead of a front with deepening trough axis to the west. Models still showing a bit of a two part rainfall footprint, with one band of showers/few storms across the mountains of WV/SW VA and another east of the Blue Ridge with lower pops across the I-81 corridor. Will lean toward high chance to low likely pops across SE WV and east of the Blue Ridge, with 30-40 in between.
718 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 - Upper Troughing and Severe Threat today followed by deamplification to quasi-zonal flow regime Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening with strong, unidirectional shear profiles indicating storm type will be linear with bowing line segments bringing primarily downburst wind threat but also QLCS tornado possibility. Environmental winds are strong with 40 to 50 knots near 5 kft AGL and some of this could mix down in the cold air advection behind the cold front, but more likely in any solid line of convection along or ahead of the front. Scattered showers will persist on Wednesday under upper troughing with diurnal and lake enhancement in the cool air.
952 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Current synoptic analysis reveals a weak and broad ridge extending across the the Atlantic and into South Florida. The weak state of the ridge can be attributed to the interaction with major Hurricane Larry in the open Atlantic (which will remain well out to sea). From synopsis, a weak and broad ridge will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, resulting in continued light to gentle breezes.
With 12Z sounding data showing cooler temperature aloft (-8C at 500MB) a few strong storms will be possible with strong gusty downburst winds in the 30-40 mph range. High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula and into the eastern Gulf combined with a trough of low pressure over the south-central Gulf will maintain southwest winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters the remainder of today with higher wind and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
A ridge of high pressure will amplify across the Northern Rockies this afternoon, leading to a warming and drying trend. The presence of an upper level jet streak associated with an approaching upper level trough will create favorable conditions for breezy winds.
424 AM PDT Tue Sep 7 2021 High pressure over the southwest states will continue above average high temperatures for inland areas.
302 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Upper level ridging building across the western U.
The large area of high clouds over NorCal continues to slowly lift north as deeper moisture moving around the periphery of the high (centered over Nevada) moves up from the southeast well offshore.
948 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecasted today, followed by another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front crosses the region.