Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another warm and humid day is in store today before a strong cold front brings storm chances on Monday along with cooler air for the rest of the week. The upper ridge keeps its hold over the area for one more day, while the well-advertised trough continues to advance over the northwestern CONUS. A few elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible within the isentropic ascent on the warm side of the low after midnight, which could linger into parts of eastern KS into Monday morning. The cold front is progged to enter our north central KS counties around the noon hour Monday and sweep across the CWA through the afternoon, likely exiting by 00Z.
Showers will slowly taper off through the day as lapse rates decrease with the 500 mb cold pool, near -22C, moves east out of the region by late morning and an upper ridge builds in from the west. With the upper ridge building in quickly, a thermal trough also quickly deepens along the southern coast with offshore flow spreading east across the entire forecast area by Monday morning.
915 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected into Monday under a ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increased through mid week with an incoming cold front. Fog will linger for another hour or so as additional heating/mixing will be needed to overcome the cooler ENE flow that is helping to maintain some of it. Broad high pressure over the Upper Ohio River Valley will provide abundant sunshine and above average temperature today. Look for clouds to slowly increase from the south this evening/overnight as moist advection develops with the shifting of high pressure east. A developing potent trough will begin to deepen across the central Rockies Monday, causing a responsive amplification of the east coast ridge.
756 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 A diffuse tough of low pressure continues across the area today with very abundant moisture and light flow. A tough of low pressure across the waters. gives way to high pressure building in during the week.
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 The main focus of this forecast is the next 24 hrs with the upper level trof swinging through and the accompanying sfc cold front.
511 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditiions are forecast across West Central Texas today, as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across the region.
340 AM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Cooler and breezy through this Sunday as weather system moves through North California. A rather nice day across the Central California Interior as a disturbance moving through the Pacific Northwest provided the region with cooler temperatures.
/issued 210 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/ Upper level ridge will be flattened today as a large trough works across the Great Basin. This will lead to warmer temperatures across the region with most locations in the mid to upper 90's. /WCI Monday morning's synoptic picture will be comprised of ridging along both coasts with a trough moving into the central states. The trough certainly has the look of a cool season system and it's about that time of year.
Deterministic runs predict the upper trough/low, with N-S axis currently along the TX coast, to lift east/northeast during the period, while another upper disturbance enters the Plains.
Unseasonably hot/dry conditions expected into the day Monday ahead of cold front, which will move into far northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. A few storms with strong gusty winds will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon/early evening as cold front moves towards the I-44 corridor.
623 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge on the Gulf Coast up into the upper Great Lakes. The trough moves into the Rockies 00z Mon and starts to move into the northern plains 12z Mon.
Forecast soundings show 35 to 45 kt at the top of the channel, so have increased winds/gusts toward the higher end of the forecast guidance as well.
509 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected into Monday under a ridge of high pressure. The forecast area will be situated within broad 500mb high pressure building over the Ohio River Valley. Ridging will amplify toward more of a summer-like pattern on Monday in response to a deep trough carving out over the Rockies. The digging of this trough across central CONUS, will push high pressure ewd, situating the region within a modest warm, moist sly flow regime.
605 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure in Quebec will settle into Maine tonight.
525 AM MDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof building from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low center is over northwest ND with trof extending southward through the NEB panhandle. Warm and windy conditions will prevail again today with surface trof advancing slowly eastward across the Dakotas. Near critical fire weather conditions will be the main concern for today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will sweep through northeast WY and far northwest SD late this afternoon, then advance through the rest of western SD this evening. There is a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms post frontal tonight, with continued chances during the day on Monday and possibly into Monday evening as upper trof crosses the Northern Plains.
However additional energy within the mean trof will move northeast across the region, allowing for more showers and a few storms.
The area will dry out on Monday with warmer temperatures through the week.
Temps will continue near climatological norms, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 The heat beat will continue today with temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. South winds will also ramp up a bit more in the afternoon across central Kansas in response to the deepening lee side trof over the high Plains. However, the main weather story remains the much anticipated strong cold frontal passage on Monday. This will occur in advance of a significant upper trof advancing from the Rockies into the Plains. It appears that moderate instability will exist during peak heating along the cold front as it moves across southeast Kansas.
1009 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure will settle over New England today.
The main focus of this forecast is the next 24 hrs with the upper level trof swinging through and the accompanying sfc cold front.
Amid large scale upper level troughing over the western CONUS, southwest flow aloft has developed across the Northern Plains. With surface dew points in the low 60s in the warm sector and modest mid-level lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be possible, overlapping with near 50 kts of deep layer shear. Monday morning the previously discussed cold front will be advancing east, into eastern North Dakota by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s, while breezy northwest winds can also be expected. A series of fronts can be expected over the remainder of the week, bringing highs up to around 80 or down to even the low 60s in some areas, depending on the day. Lows should dip into the 40s and 30s during the cooler periods.
300 AM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Decreasing showers this morning, mainly over the eastern foothills and mountains, as short wave trough moves through.
1138 AM MDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof building from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low center is over northwest ND with trof extending southward through the NEB panhandle. Warm and windy conditions will prevail again today with surface trof advancing slowly eastward across the Dakotas. Near critical fire weather conditions will be the main concern for today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will sweep through northeast WY and far northwest SD late this afternoon, then advance through the rest of western SD this evening. There is a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms post frontal tonight, with continued chances during the day on Monday and possibly into Monday evening as upper trof crosses the Northern Plains.
156 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Dry and warmer weather this week.
With the colder air, an inch or two of snowfall is likely in the highest elevations of the Park Range. As previously mentioned, cloud cover will likely keep the coldest ares from bottoming out below freezing tonight.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, an area of low pressure just north of Lake Winnipeg and another low pressure over the northern Plains. A cold front connected the lows from southern Manitoba southwest through the northern Plains into the central High Plains. The second precipitation event would approach central WI late in the afternoon as a cold front moves into western WI. Most of the models show showers/thunderstorms to be along the cold front, however cannot rule out some precipitation developing ahead of the boundary. Monday Night Through Sunday Models still not fully in agreement on precip chances leading into the cold front passage Monday night.
330 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft over the Northeast U.
314 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 A weak mid/upper-level trough will slowly be drawn northward across our region into increasing southwest flow aloft through Monday. However, forcing with the trough, along with increasing moisture through the column will lead to numerous showers streaming north or northeast over our region through the period. The greatest coverage will be over the Pennyrile and southwest Indiana, but the best chances of thunderstorms may be on the western periphery of that area where presumably temperatures will be a bit warmer. Monday night our attention turns back to the west as a much more substantial trough pushes through the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s today with overnight lows in the 50s to mid 60s. Between midnight and 6 AM MT, a cold front will sweep across the area from the NW while an upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains.
A sharp trough over the northern Rockies and healthy ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley have resulted in near meridional flow over the Plains today. This fast southerly flow aloft will spread eastward with the advancing trough, tapping into deep moisture tonight. Very strong moisture transport on a 50 kt LLJ will facilitate shower and thunderstorm development along and behind the cold front. The cold front will accelerate eastward Monday as low pressure tracks from South Dakota tonight to northern Minnesota around midday.
Water vapor imagery showing the axis of the trough that has brought rain across the forecast area centered right over the eastern mountains. The uptick in instability within the center of this low has spawned another cluster of showers currently moving across the Blues into the Wallowas, as well as some light shower activity over the Cascades. After the showers over the eastern mountains pass, hi-res guidance depicts sporadic shower activity over the lower elevations, as well as light and persistent showers over our mountain zones through the late afternoon. Environment remains moisture-laden and lapse rates are large enough to support some stray showers, however expectation is that the majority of the forecast area has seen the last of the rain for the weekend, outside of the higher elevations.
This, and perhaps an increase in mid-level clouds late tonight, will result in warmer overnight low temperatures. A few hours after sunrise Monday, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma.
228 PM MDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Fast southwesterly flow aloft is located over the forecast area this afternoon ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west. Low pressure exists at the surface, currently centered over western South Dakota with a cold front moving into the area from southeastern Montana. The cold front will sweep into northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern SD late this afternoon, then will quickly cross the rest of western SD this evening. There remains a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms during the rest of the night and through the day on Monday due to cyclonic flow and cold advection aloft increasing the instability as the upper trough crosses the northern plains.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s across the area. Convective temperatures are in the low 80s across the region so we should begin to see some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms in the next couple of hours. Highs today should climb into the low to middle 80s. Tomorrow into early Monday an open trough is expected to develop just west of the Mississippi River resulting in slightly better steering flow across the Midsouth.
The forecast is still on track for isolated showers and storms to develop this afternoon primarily from Tucson eastward with highest chances over the higher elevations. South-southwest flow aloft this morning with the area still between upper high near El Paso and upper level trof to our west. As the upper level trof to our west pushes across the state, drier air will move in.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 76 69 79 65 / 70 90 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 78 67 78 65 / 40 60 80 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 68 79 67 78 63 / 50 60 80 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 80 65 75 63 / 10 40 50 60 50 TN.
301 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 No big changes have been made to the forecast with a cold frontal passage and a chance for showers/thunderstorms expected late Monday-Monday night.
Persistent cyclonic flow over the Lower MS Valley region will continue to combine with very moist air to bring scattered diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the ArkLaMiss.
The trough of low pressure is currently over the Northern Rockies causing numerous showers. The higher terrain along the Continental Divide down through southwest Montana and into Lemhi county will experience some light snow accumulations, but impacts to region should be minimal.
254 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals cloud cover gradually expanding over the region ahead of an advancing cold front, with current observations showing breezy southerly/southwesterly winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph. Should see the severe threat gradually diminish by midnight though, with more widespread showers forecast to develop in areas west of I-29 prior to daybreak as the cold front advances toward the region. Thus, with the aid of CAA and mostly cloudy skies, expect afternoon highs to be notably cooler, as temperatures only climb into the 60s to low 70s.
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditiions are forecast across West Central Texas today, as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across the region.
Meanwhile, an associated cold front will continue through the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, before sweeping through the mid-MO Valley on Monday. Increasing height falls/dynamic cooling ahead of the approaching mid-level trough will combine with a marginally unstable air mass to foster widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight, especially across northeast NE. The cold front is expected to move into the northwest part of our area between 6 and 7 AM on Monday, before reaching the Lincoln and Omaha areas between noon and 1 PM. The pre-frontal convective regime mentioned in the previous paragraph is forecast to shift east/northeast of the area by mid morning, with some uncertainty in the extent of subsequent shower and storm development along the cold front through the remainder of the day.
There have been some radar returns visible all day, but nothing is reaching the surface in the trough. The forcing in the upper trough coalesces a bit more after 0z so did leave pops in for that time period. The cold front will push east tonight with the trailing upper trough. Continuing showers will remain over the region on Monday under the trough. Temperatures will be considerably cooler with the clouds and rain behind the front.
330 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Good news for those of you yearning for cooler and drier weather. The cold front that we have been discussing for the past several days now looks like it will arrive a bit faster. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 80s across much of the area with significant breaks in the cloud cover. Convective temperatures are in the low 80s so we should see additional development over the next couple of hours. Highs today should climb into the low to middle 80s. The highest threat is in west Tennessee and north Mississippi generally along and south of Interstate 40. A trough will deepen along and west of the Mississippi river tonight and Monday resulting in Southwest flow across the Midsouth.
The region will be under the influence of a trough of low pressure throughout the day today. Showers will initially be focused near and just east of the trough axis over central and south Central Idaho, with additional showers developing as the day heats under the trough in areas further to the west.
229 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Upper low lifting northward this afternoon. Energy to the east of the upper low is working northward across the midstate. By early monday morning however, the upper trough to our west will reamplify with curvature and shear enhancement upwind.
Early in the week, a longwave mid- level trough will push across the central United States, helping push the tropical moisture northward into Canada.
1132 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Mid/upper trof axis situated a little further east than yesterday.
331 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 A cold front looks to bring showers, a few thunderstorms, and breezy to windy conditions through tonight. Surface cold front currently in western ND will continue to push eastward through tonight. Look for temperatures to be cooler and generally in the 60s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Subsidence is expected through the short term due to a 500mb trough across eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and northwesterly winds aloft.
Otherwise, winds will continue to veer to be more southerly tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front, and will also be gusty tomorrow afternoon, with gusts near 20 knots likely for most sites. A little more cloud cover is noted across northwest Arkansas this morning with a few light showers moving through the higher terrain.
As the trough fully exits the region a final boundary is sweeping through the area. Behind the boundary, cooler air will continue to funnel in keeping the region 15 to 20 degrees below climo this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty along ridge tops and breezy east of the Cascades through the day. Then late this evening high pressure builds in.
500mb trof axis should be situated further east tomorrow.
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft over the Northeast U.
A little more cloud cover is noted across northwest Arkansas this morning with a few light showers moving through the higher terrain.
1200 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft over the Northeast U.
200 PM MDT Sun Sep 19 2021 A trough will continue to transit the area tonight. Tomorrow will remain cooler with scattered showers as the area will remain the northwest flow aloft.
/issued 756 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021/ A diffuse tough of low pressure continues across the area today with very abundant moisture and light flow. A tough of low pressure across the waters. gives way to high pressure building in during the week.
1248 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected into Monday under a ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increased through mid week with an incoming cold front. Broad high pressure over the Upper Ohio River Valley will provide abundant sunshine and above average temperature today. Look for clouds to slowly increase from the south this evening/overnight as moist advection develops with the shifting of high pressure east. A developing potent trough will begin to deepen across the central Rockies Monday, causing a corresponding amplification of the east coast ridge.
453 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft over the Northeast U.
1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 The heat beat will continue today with temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. South winds will also ramp up a bit more in the afternoon across central Kansas in response to the deepening lee side trof over the high Plains. However, the main weather story remains the much anticipated strong cold frontal passage on Monday. This will occur in advance of a significant upper trof advancing from the Rockies into the Plains. It appears that moderate instability will exist during peak heating along the cold front as it moves across southeast Kansas.
245 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Water vapor imagery is showing broad anticyclonic motion across the eastern third of the United States, with surface analysis detecting a weak area of high pressure centered over southern Canada and New England. A healthy cloud line quickly formed earlier today right on top of portions of the Lower Keys.
143 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge on the Gulf Coast up into the upper Great Lakes. The trough moves into the Rockies 00z Mon and starts to move into the northern plains 12z Mon.
A weak upper level low centered over the ARLATEX region will lift north-northeastward through this evening, becoming centered over western Illinois by midnight. Highs today will generally be in the lower to middle 80's. Temperatures will generally fall into the lower to middle 70's.
/issued 330 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/ Good news for those of you yearning for cooler and drier weather. The cold front that we have been discussing for the past several days now looks like it will arrive a bit faster. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 80s across much of the area with significant breaks in the cloud cover. Convective temperatures are in the low 80s so we should see additional development over the next couple of hours. Highs today should climb into the low to middle 80s. The highest threat is in west Tennessee and north Mississippi generally along and south of Interstate 40. A trough will deepen along and west of the Mississippi river tonight and Monday resulting in Southwest flow across the Midsouth.
605 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected into Monday under a ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increased through mid week with an incoming cold front. Broad high pressure over the Upper Ohio River Valley will provide dry weather tonight. Look for clouds to slowly increase from the south this evening/overnight as moist advection develops with the shifting of high pressure east. A developing potent trough will begin to deepen across the central Rockies Monday, causing a corresponding amplification of the east coast ridge.
Upper low lifting northward this afternoon. Energy to the east of the upper low is working northward across the midstate. By early monday morning however, the upper trough to our west will reamplify with curvature and shear enhancement upwind.
946 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Have seen a break in the rainfall early this evening as the upper trough axis has begun to shift northeast across the area, pushing the better convergent flow primarily across northeast AL and northwest GA.
A strong upper trough situated to our west is helping pull abundant Gulf moisture into Middle Tennessee, with widespread, mainly light showers ongoing.
Western Washington will continue to see scattered showers and possible thunderstorms through this evening as a trough departs the region.
Dry on Monday with temperatures beginning to trend warmer, however lows Monday night will also be near or below freezing in many valley locations.
No big changes have been made to the forecast with a cold frontal passage and a chance for showers/thunderstorms expected late Monday-Monday night.
A low pressure trough will continue to move across the Northern Rockies and Montana tonight through Monday for cool temperatures with scattered rain and mountain snow showers.