Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
425 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2016 Water vapor shows upper trof pushing through the nrn Rockies with srn stream trof moving out of the cntrl/srn Rockies. A few -shra lifting newd through Neb associated with srn stream trof. Near freezing temps expected most areas Monday night with light winds and clear skies. Western CONUS upper ridge rebuilds over the northern plains by midweek, with dry conditions and very mild temperatures continuing.
818 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the middle of the week.
Deeper moisture continues to gather for areas west of the Mississippi River, while a strong upper low moves off the New England coast.
707 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week.
The ridge will finally shift east of the mid state by morning, allowing for return southerly flow ahead of the next surface system.
935 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Strong H5 vort in the base of sharp upper trough is located across the WRN Panhandles. Cold front will help clear clouds and fog from NW to SE in the morning after sunrise. Latest 06/12Z model and probabilistic data does shows the area of precipitation ahead of the main upper level trough axis moving faster to the east which should clear out precipitation across the region.
/issued 349 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Persistent longwave trough continues to slowly progress eastward across the central us, with south Texas on the very base of the trough.
549 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Upper impulse is currently situated over southeast CO/northeast NM and is continuing to lift out into the high Plains. This will result in surface ridging over the southern Plains keeping a dry forecast in place through Fri.
840 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2016 Dry conditions with unseasonably warmer temperatures can be expected this week.
501 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the middle of the week.
a relatively weak cold front making a dash swd out of the Dakotas will eventually push all pcpn activity east of the CWA through the evening hours.
With longwave trough firmly entrenched across central/northern North America, well below normal temperatures will persist into the weekend. Subtle ripples progressing through the base of the aforementioned longwave trough will support a few chances for light snow/flurries across the region.
Cold front continues to push east through the forecast area early this morning. Rain showers will quickly taper off this morning and cloud cover will become scattered as cooler, drier air moves in behind the front. With the cooler air moving in, afternoon temperatures will be steady or slowly falling.
We have edged minimums down just a smidgen, mainly southern zones, banking on a later thickening of the high clouds. We have split the difference between WRF/NAM and the warmer GFS for now.
Some dense fog will persist for the lower valley through the early daylight hours until the combination of moderate northeast winds, rising temperatures, and falling dew points opens up space between the temp and dew point profiles. Skies will remain cloudy with low temperatures from the lower 50s to near 60 tonight and high temps on Thurs back into the 70s as winds veer to east and then southeast to south.
1253 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 Cold front passes this evening/tonight with more showers. Cold front approaching from the west, now pushing into southeastern Ohio, knocking on the CWA doorstop/Perry County. Also will have a brief change over to snow showers as the low level moisture erodes from west to east. As in typical fashion, expect this to be only superficial amounts, only in the highest elevations. Although some variation between models in the location of the highest precipitation amounts, models agree that it will snow in most of the area.
Northwesterly surface flow will continue to advect ample cold air into much of the region today through the remainder of the week, with sub-freezing temperatures remaining firmly in place until the late weekend. An upper-level trough in this area will continue to deepen and eventually cross into the Great Lakes Region late tonight. An area of dry air in the lower levels will need to be overcome initially, but generally thinking that precipitation will commence late Wednesday evening, with accumulating snowfall beginning during the overnight period.
Wind speeds will gradually decrease today as this high pressure continues to nose into the area. Large scale lift will increase ahead of the trough axis as evident from the tropopause pressure advection and weak upper level divergence. Soundings show that the lowest levels will need to saturate first, which may deplete some of the totals. Cross sections reveal that the lower level frontogenesis is rather weak, but evident. The high res model camp is slightly higher than the GFS and GEFS. Thursday and Thursday night, the positive tilt upper trough across the upper midwest and central plains will continue to shear apart. Thursday night skies will be mostly clear and lows will drop down in the lower single digits.
Despite the lower QPF numbers, the high snow ratios will likely yield up to 2 inches by late in the day in the north with under a half inch in the south. Low level moisture behind a departing cold front will provide mainly IFR conditions to the area overnight into early Wednesday morning.
The combination of low pressure over the St. Lawrence valley and high pressure over the northern plains was producing a cold northwest flow across Indiana. Cold and dry weather will occur later Thursday night through the weekend as high pressure over the northern plains builds our way and an upper trough digs across the great lakes. Temperatures will become milder after the weekend as the upper trough moves on to the east and heights rise.
Wrap-around low level moisture on the backside of a broad area of low pressure, is resulting in SCT-BKN low clouds across much of the area. West-southwest surface winds behind last night's pre-frontal trough are helping temps warm into the 60s to lower 70s (south). Ahead of a 1040mb 'High' centered across eastern Montana this afternoon, the main cold front currently extends from north Texas across southern MO/IL to eastern Ohio. It is this front that usher in cooler/drier air across north/central Georgia throughout tomorrow /Wednesday/, along with gusty northwest winds.
A cold front's passage makes the primary weather challenge now the extent of cold air, and with the next chance of pcpn, the extent of snowfall. Add a few more hundredths from 12Z-18Z Thursday, as the wave makes passage across the lower Ohio river valley, and you've got anywhere from 1/2"-1" across southeast IL/southwest IN.
925 PM PST Tue Jan 3 2017 Fair and warmer Wednesday, followed by a chance of showers late Wednesday through Thursday. A ridge will build in from the south this weekend as low pressure deepens over the eastern Pacific, bringing fair and mild weather. Minor warming takes place Wednesday as a weak ridge builds to the south and heights rise, though high temps will remain several degrees below normal.
324 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to build into the region this morning while cold air and northwest winds combine to create bitterly cold wind chills across the area. The center of the high is to the west over eastern MT. northwest winds will continue as the high remains to the west. The main upper trough will move through the area tonight. clouds will likely decrease across the area and warmer air will begin to move into the area aloft.
Temps on Wednesday will likely remain at or slightly below freezing. Cold but dry conditions persist for the remainder of the week as high pressure moves in.
/issued 825 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ A cold front is moving southeast across the CWA this evening, with northwest winds increasing to 10-15 mph in its wake. Cooler and drier air will advect into the area tonight and Wednesday. The back edge of the low cloud deck extends from near Branson, MO to Washington, IL and is moving toward the Mid-South. Ahead of the cold front, a few spotty showers and occasional drizzle area expected.
Cold front has now pushed pass all the terminals with north to northwest winds around 10 knots at all sites. A cold front is currently moving across the region with a cooler air mass spilling in behind the boundary.
Lack of widespread snow cover will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they otherwise would have been, however readings will still drop below zero across the north with single digits above zero elsewhere.
325 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure anchored across the gulf of Alaska with a ridge extending north into Alaska, the Yukon and northwestern portions of the Northwest Territories of Canada.
The northerly winds should also bring cold and dry air into the region on Wednesday scouring out the low level moisture and leading to lifting ceilings. /issued 947 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ High pressure building behind a cold front allowing for much cooler temperatures across the region. Low temperatures tonight forecast to fall into the 30s and 40s across most locations with subfreezing temperatures possible along and north of Interstate 30 where skies may become partly cloudy near daybreak.
316 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to build into central and southeast Illinois today. Upper-level troffing continues to dig across the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region through the period. A weak impulse/110 kt 300 MB jet streak will round the base of this digging trof passing through the forecast area later tonight into Thursday. Area of light snow will quickly streak southeast Thursday morning, with the highest chances south of I-70. Much of the latter part of the week into the weekend will be quiet, as high pressure drifts across the area.
Much colder air continues to filter into the region this evening behind the arctic cold front that moved through earlier today. /Issued 326 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ The Arctic cold front has made its way through the area today, having pushed well south of the area into Texas.
Arctic high pressure extends from southwest Canada across the northern Rockies and into the Plains region at 20Z.
Main problem this morning will be low clouds and fog ahead of a slow moving cold front. The cold front will come through the Tampa Bay area around 10 AM, then through Fort Myers around 4 PM or so. It will be noticeably cooler, but still mostly above normal with lows from near 50 far north to near 60 coastal south. The cold front will settle into the Florida Straits on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure drops into the northern Gulf. The westerly winds in the afternoon will keep the beaches a few degrees cooler.
245 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Weather map shows cold front now across the Gulf just south of the 60nm coastal waters boundary.
A stronger dry cold front will move through the region Wednesday. As low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
Not too much recovery expected tomorrow with the CWA remaining below freezing. Ahead of the trough, there will be some weak mid level frontogenesis that will add to the ascent beginning late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Low pressure will pass to our south Thursday bringing light snow.
1252 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 A cold front moves across the area later tonight and will bring much colder air in from the west.
Another surge of cold air is expected to move into the region later tonight into Thursday morning as upper trough swings across the Northern/Central Plains into the Great Lakes area.
Gusty northwest flow will develop on the back side of this low, bringing a blast of frigid Arctic air.
Winds will continue to increase out of the west northwest and become gusty into this evening, as the pressure gradient tightens behind the passing Arctic cold front.
Southerly winds with warmer lows tonight. Currently, northeast winds at the surface continue to bring in drier, cooler air. Temperatures as of 230 AM have fallen below freezing across the Big Country, and will likely get to freezing soon in the Concho Valley and Heartland. This won't help temperatures too much today as highs will still only range from the lower 40s north of I-20 to the mid 50s along/south of I-10.
Further to the north, atmosphere will be even cooler with limited dynamics making it incredibly difficult to accumulate snow. Lows should plummet below zero, with the coldest readings around 10 below in the highway 14 corridor where snowpack is greatest.
At best, think light amounts (less than an inch) or a dusting of snow accumulation across Central KS, given the high snow to liquid ratios expected (ie, fluffy snow). W-NW flow will slowly translate to the east, allowing ridging and southwest flow to return to the plains. High pressure will continue to build into the area. Next cold front will enter Central Kansas near the end of the forecast, but MVFR ceilings appear most likely after end of forecast.
Winds will continue out of the east as a cold front moves into the area. /issued 247 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ Colder weather is on the way! A cold front is currently nosing SE through the Permian Basin this afternoon. The front will continue to slowly push SW, stalling near the higher terrain regions late tonight. With the cooler airmass in place, overnight lows will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across much of Southeast NM and Permian Basin. Wednesday, southerly winds return briefly, allowing the cold front to lift to the north. A stronger cold front will arrive Thursday bringing much cooler air to the FA.
The region will remain under the influence of dry Arctic high pressure into the start of the weekend.
928 PM PST Tue Jan 3 2017 Continued wet with increasing snow levels through Thursday followed by a wetter and warmer system over the weekend. Heavy snow is expected as the bands move into the higher elevations. The polar front jet is undercutting the pronounced blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific. This is creating a very active weather pattern that will continue over NorCal for the next couple of days as systems interact with increasingly deep moisture being drawn northward beneath the quasi-stationary low portion of the blocking ridge.
Winds will shift back out of the north towards the end of the period as the cold front slides into the Panhandles. Our cold front from Today will return northward across the area as a lee side low drops into eastern New Mexico. The question is just how far north the warm front will make it and how much WAA will occur across the SW. Have brought temperatures up but have leaned on the cooler side given cloud cover. The warmer temperatures on Wednesday will quickly be removed from the area as a cold front surges southward. The cold front is expected to be knocking on our door to the north shortly after sunset and be south of the area by daybreak. Thursday will remain cold with high temperatures remaining below the freezing mark areawide.
Upper troughing will slowly shift east across the central Great Lakes but cyclonic flow will continue through the column.
The cold front is entering NW Alabama as of 730pm. Lows by sunrise could be upwards of 20-25 degrees cooler than this mornings values.
High pressure in the Central Plains will nose east into the region and help keep the arctic airmass in place through the weekend.
Cold front has pushed through the region as observations indicate NW flow starting to bring in much colder air for today. Our current temperatures are the highs for today as temperatures will continue to drop through the day except for maybe a brief warmup of a couple of degrees this afternoon as clouds break up. However, wind chills in the higher elevations will be in the zero to ten below zero range. This will help keep temps from really dropping off, but still looking at widespread lows in the teens with single digits likely in the higher mountain valleys. Although some variation between models in the location of the highest precipitation amounts, models agree that it will snow in most of the area.
355 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 An upper level trough is currently digging southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley. Broadening of the trough today will accelerate the cold front that is currently moving over the CWA. Another reinforcing upper trough will rotate out of Canada and into the Central Plains Thursday.
Models continue to depict fair amount of lower level humidity dropping over the cwa Wednesday night as the upper trough moves across the region.
Temperatures ranged from the low 40s in central Illinois to the low teens upper single digits across NW Iowa. This cold air and high pressure will be the main forecast concern through the short term. Temperatures tonight should reach in the lower single digits. While temperatures are low, the dearth of snow means that we will actually be warmer than the last cold snap we experienced at the end of 2016. Tomorrow, high pressure with winds starting to slacken are forecast.
1217 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 Cold front is just pushing across the forecast area as of 05Z.
Break in the snow currently over the CWA with some snow confined over the higher mtns. while periods of snow continue over the higher mtns. Otherwise continued cold with the arctic high settling down the high plains.
20z subjective regional surface analysis indicated the cold front near a line from Poplar Bluff Missouri, to just north of De Queen.
Surface analysis indicates a weak cold front draped across south central Florida. High temperatures are forecast to max out in the low 80s, around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. As the front sweeps over the region tonight, cooler and drier air will filter in from the northwest.
Winds will turn northeast behind a cold front tonight with some gusts at CRP between 20 and 22 knots. A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening into the early morning hours. A cold front will move through the region this evening/overnight and N/NE winds will increase slightly, and perhaps become a little gusty at CRP. A cold front, currently moving into EWX's northern CWA, is forecast to move through S TX this evening and is expected to be moving south of the area around midnight. MX temps for Wed will likely be around 15-20 degrees cooler than today's warm values. As a cold front moves across the region tonight, offshore winds are expected to become moderate overnight.
Moist conditions in the low levels and instability parameters in place will allow for showers through Wednesday and some isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The highest chances remains along the east coast metro area.
Temperatures should climb into the mid 30s this afternoon over the southern half of the region, but otherwise, temperatures will be below freezing through the remainder of the short term period.
We remain in the zone between an arctic ridge stretched from the northern plains to Illinois and low pressure slowly pulling away to the northeast.
CAA continues today and with clouds building into the area, have trended aob the cooler guidance despite the deeper mixing. Have trended warmer for tonight, however, will need to monitor with future updates potentially trending colder.
Large scale pattern eventually tilts toward a bit more of a west northwest flow rather than quasi-zonal as experienced today as a a negatively tilted trough develops to the east of our region. For lows tonight, I went with cooler MOS numbers and Superblend for highs Wednesday.
308 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Drier air pushed out the last of the low level clouds a few hours ago as high pressure nosed it's way southward into the region.
/issued 349 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has made it through all of West Central Texas this afternoon, although the best cold advection is still lagging behind the front.
Cold front has pushed through the region as observations indicate NW flow starting to bring in much colder air for today. Our current temperatures are the highs for today as temperatures will continue to drop through the day except for maybe a brief warmup of a couple of degrees this afternoon as clouds break up. However, wind chills in the higher elevations will be in the zero to ten below zero range. This will help keep temps from really dropping off, but still looking at widespread lows in the teens with single digits likely in the higher mountain valleys.
The clouds have kept temperatures from rapidly falling overnight despite the low level cold air advection.
Although the low stratus clouds have not been widespread, and have been hard to observe on regional satellite imagery due to the cold temperatures, they are forming where local conditions allow. These conditions could be from smoke stacks, or industries which create the low clouds from the cold temperatures in the boundary layer. If the clouds hold on longer later tonight, lows will be a few degrees warmer. Wind chill values will remain in the -25 to -35F range in the advisory area, with values slightly warmer in east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
Highs in the lower to middle 20s is common amongst the guidance and given the increasing cloud cover and weaker winds, this would seem to make sense. By Wednesday night, models show a positively-tilted mid-level trough over the Northern Plains sliding south/southeast into the Central Plains. As this trough quickly skims over the area, model soundings show enough moisture and lift to produce some quick snowfall overnight into early Thursday. The best QPF chances look to be focused north of I-70 as the mid-level trough becomes sheared out as it shifts southward across the CWA, resulting in diminishing lift by Thursday morning. High pressure will remain anchored over the central U. through the weekend, with temperatures remaining cooler than normal.
Winds are currently from the NNW and gusty in many locales as a cold front has pushed through the region. Temperatures range from the lower 30s across northern areas to near 50 in areas south. Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure just to the NW of the local region, with latest H5 analysis depicting quasi zonal flow aloft. High pressure will build into the region today, with high temperatures only reaching the 30s and 40s. Clouds will build back into the region by early Thursday as a reinforcing cold front moves to just north of the region. However, an upper level trough axis will gradually move into the region throughout the day on Thursday, with snow chances progressing south.
The primary upper trough and jet will remain well to the northwest through this period; however, a weak PV anomaly and vorticity maxima travels eastward through the region while a broad band of frontogenesis centered between 600-500 hPa sinks southeastward across the forecast area.
Will maintain some -sn and blsn in Baudette/Warroad areas into early evening as low pressure departs.
Cold front currently working across eastern middle TN at this hour. Despite pcpn ending, it will take some time before IFR to MVFR ceiling erosions to take place, as strong sfc ridging influences try to build in from the northern Rockies thru 05/06Z. It looks like ceiling erosions will occur slowly from west to east from around 04/10Z west to around 04/19Z east, as a weak upper level trough passage and dry quasi zonal flow aloft become established thru 05/06Z.
1242 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening and be followed by a second dry cold front late Wednesday.
Cold front has pushed south of the CWA as of writing with shallow cool airmass spreading across the region. Significantly warmer temps are expected as H85 temps increase to around 16 C and shallow cool/dense airmass mixes out. After a dry and relatively warm Thursday much cooler air will surge in behind a cold front Thursday Night.