Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
650 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PREFER COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND LOCAL WEDGE GUIDANCE. SO LOW TO MID 50S WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
307 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS WELL. AND WARMED TEMPS MORESO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FRONT THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
500MB TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TODAY WHATS LEFT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE. NO RAIN TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ON TOP OF US. MID LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND WARMING 850/700MB TEMPERATURES LEADS TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
414 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPERATURES INDICATING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY FALLING. MADE A FEW CALLS TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH INDICATED NO IMPACTS AS SO FAR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP IS ONLY TRACING OUT. HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT NOW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS UNLESS WE HEAR OF MORE IMPACTS AND A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. MAIN THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID MORNING.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
334 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 Weak upper trough was making its way east across the Central Plains early this morning, stemming from the old system to the southwest, with continued high cloud overhead.
400 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PREFER COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND LOCAL WEDGE GUIDANCE. SO LOW TO MID 50S WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
1138 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SW U. ANOTHER WAVY BARELY SURVIVES AS IT TRIES TO BUST THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SECOND FEATURE HAS A BIT MORE SUCCESS AS IT LEADS THE WAY FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHER CA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SETTING UP ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE JET PUSHING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD WILL BE CYCLONICALLY CURVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE FORCING TO THE NORTH IS ENOUGH TO FORCE A COLD FRONT TO NEAR A MOAB TO MEEKER TO STEAMBOAT LINE BY MID EVENING.
TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND THUS IF ANY PCPN MATERIALIZES IT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID/FREEZING FORM. THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OFF THE PACIFIC AFFECTING OUR CWA. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH THE WARMER AIR. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ONE LAST MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A COOLER.
531 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SW.
TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC FRONT MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NW TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
357 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 (Today and Tonight) Upper low in Northwest Texas continued to move east early this morning. Showers should end by 7 AM CDT, as subsidence occurs in the wake of the upper low.
Brief high pressure today will quickly give way to increasing cloudiness in advance of the next organized weather system.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL YIELD TO A COUPLE OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
411 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. WHILE AN INVERTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND APPROACHES IOWA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUOUS INTRUSION OF DRY AND STABLE AIR OUT OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS WELL EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MEANWHILE IN SOUTHWEST IOWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE THE EASTERLY FLOW. AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND DES MOINES AND LOWER 70S DOWN AROUND CORNING AND BEDFORD.
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
Have updated to cancel the High Wind Warning and have also made minor tweaks to lower forecast winds below criteria as well.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 42 31 46 / 70 20 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 42 26 40 / 80 60 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 41 29 41 / 80 50 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 40 24 35 / 80 60 30 30 TN.
536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
535 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015 Area of low pressure which has brought our precipitation was centered near Carbondale early this afternoon. Temperatures have been above freezing over most of the snow area and accumulations have been minor and slushy, but some more substantial 1-2 inch totals have occurred north of Galesburg where temperatures are now below freezing. A couple of cooler days are on tap across central and southeast Illinois in the wake of today's clipper. It is definitely possible that we will see nothing at all, or perhaps some light drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on surface temperatures) due to the paucity of ice crystals.
1034 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA. KEPT LARGER COMPONENTS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF INTO OUR REGION. TRIMMED POPS DOWN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WV AND HELD THE WARMER AIR IN LONGER. BUT WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILLING IN AND THE SNOW EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW EARLY MON MORNING.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT USHERING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST WATERS.
823 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 WITH 00Z RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUING TO DOWNPLAY ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DECIDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON PLACE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
636 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE-TUE NGT PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. NEXT SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON THU SHOULD CAUSE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES IN OUR AREA INCLUDING RAIN/SNOW AND PSBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER LATEST 21/22Z RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT.
THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z (KLEE) AND 15Z (KVRB/KFPR). WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTH WED AND THEN ONSHORE THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO FL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG DIFFS WITH POTENTIAL END OF WEEK COLD FRONT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING. ONLY A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT.
728 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT.
654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE PLAGUED MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BUT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WERE MADE THROUGH PRE-DAWN MONDAY TO REFLECT THE WARMER REALITY. TAX LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER WESTERN KY NOW SHIFTING EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX SITS RIGHT OVER OR EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND CONSEQUENTLY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
AROUND THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER WRN TN/MID-SOUTH REGION. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CU FIELD TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW. /ISSUED 536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/ DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.
/ISSUED 258 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front moved across West Central TX this morning, resulting in gusty north winds and an influx of slightly drier air. The surface anticyclone will shift southeast across the southern portion of the CWA overnight. This will yield light winds south of the Colorado River, where temperatures are forecast to fall into the low/mid 30s by sunrise. With full insolation and adequate mixing, most of West Central TX should realize max temperatures in the lower 70s.
411 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW CAUSING A QUICK LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMED UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AS EXPECTED. WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY EAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING. EXCEPT FOR IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS ONLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING.
358 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE AND FROM LUSK TO SCOTTSBLUFF WITHIN WAA REGIME AND A BAND OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/ A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn't know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the only evidence of the frontal passage.
536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW.
557 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED DOWN ACROSS MIDDLE TENENSSEE AT LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE CORE AROUND -28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS BRINGING WARM AIR ALOFT WITH IT WHICH IS HELPING BOOST THE TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TO GENERATE LEESIDE TROUGH BUT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
/ISSUED 536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/ DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.
MOISTURE WILL BE REINTRODUCED TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW AT THE BASE OF THE REX BLOCK. BUT FAVORED SLOWER ECMWF/GFS AS MODELS LIKELY TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE BLOCKING PATTERN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
307 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND WARMER AIRMASS.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/ TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
MAIN CONCERN IS WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US.
544 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THRU SE TX AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN LA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PREVAILING.
644 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER WESTERN KY NOW SHIFTING EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX SITS RIGHT OVER OR EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND CONSEQUENTLY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
SEVERAL NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AT MID EVENING.
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE SFC AND UPPER LOW AS THEY TRACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
/ISSUED 416 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT.
IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing light rain through early morning. Fortunately most locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation. Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING DUE TO A AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS SHOWN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT THAT IS CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT SOUTHERN CA AND INTO BAJA CA ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFF THE CA COAST BY WED.
AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
SEAS WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MID STATE LAST NIGHT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF MID STATE 18Z-20Z TUESDAY AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN SPEED WITH A FEW GUSTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.
THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS PUSHED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT ALL THAT BAD ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING.
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. RISING TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. ENDING THE FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP. ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND PLACES OUR REGION IN A PROLONGED COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FALLING TEMPS WED MORNING AND LITTLE DIURNAL RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN TROUGH TO DIG A BIT MORE AND BE SLOWER COMING OUT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015 THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT AND THE FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
741 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
BY TUESDAY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
306 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015 A TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA INTO TOMORROW.
BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
Potential additional impacts brought about by this snow would be refreezing of any lingering snowmelt on roadways tonight which could result in slick conditions later on tonight and into Tuesday morning.
MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.