Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL OFF ONLY GETTING INTO THE HIGH 50S. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST FROM THE PACIFIC. 700 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
248 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO ROTATE UP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
329 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 (Today and tonight) Weak backdoor cold front moved into the Big Country last night bringing slightly cooler air and northeast winds to the area. expect slightly cooler afternoon highs for the northern half of the area. Will see highs in the lower 80s north. With cooler and drier airmass in place. It develops a strong upper low, digging it south along the West Coast and into the Desert Southwest, before progressively ejecting it northeast while dampening the system out.
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 LEAD EMBEDDED WAVES ORIGINATING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
319 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 The upper ridge that has been in place across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the last several days will begin to move east later today and tonight as an upper level low /trough pushes east and weakens through the intermountain west. High temperatures will generally remain much above normal today near the departing ridge. The exception will be the extreme western Low Rolling Plains where surface ridging will feed cooler easterly low level flow into that area.
SURFACE RIDGING INCREASING TO 6 TO 13 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S. THE DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10. SOME COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE FALL TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
/issued 217 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ After a hot afternoon today, expect slightly cooler conditions to arrive by the weekend. The upper ridge bringing the warm temperatures and dry weather will shift east into the Plains and weaken over the next few days. Meanwhile, a storm system will carve out a trough across the Western U. By the weekend, this trough will move close enough to the area to generate southwesterly mid level flow. This will need to be watched though as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Marty in the Pacific possibly gets caught up in the upper flow. A cold front will move south across the Southern Plains this weekend, but looks to weaken significantly by the time it arrives in our area.
A blocky upper level flow pattern persists across North America, keeping area in a tight surface pressure gradient between high pressure centered over eastern Canada and the low pressure associated with Hurricane Joaquin. Strong upper level trof digging southward into the TN river valley and and central/eastern Gulf coast states with a 569 dm 500 mb low over AL. This deep trof to steer hurricane on northward journey and likely keep it off shore.
144 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 The upper low over the Tn valley will continue its dive southward with time. The surface gradient will respond by tightening between high pressure over Eastern Canada and low pressure over the southeast U. This will keep a fetch of nice cool n-nelys across the lower Ohio river valley.
312 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH 1042MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SERVING AS OUR CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE. A BIT OF A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH SOME BELOW FREEZING READINGS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE 1-2 KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND. CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COOL/STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS WRN QUEBEC.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH RAIN CURRENTLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL MARYLAND. WITH LOCATIONS IN EASTERN OHIO REACHING THE LOW 60S WHILE LOCATIONS IN GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES MAY NOT ESCAPE THE 40S.
327 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO UTAH TODAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.
141 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE SE STATES TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA/NV WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA. A RIDGE EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE FIVE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRING CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHILLY AIR POOLED ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOTS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SPOTS TODAY. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH AND CLOSE TO 40 DOWNEAST. THE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
322 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
433 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A MODERATE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL. THE TROUGHS CHARACTERIZING THE UPPER PATTERN ARE OF THE CLOSED VARIETY AND DO NOT REPRESENT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. TODAY/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. PWB 12Z TAF SET A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MUCH OF THE DAY.
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 246 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ A SLOW MOVING CDFNT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TN WHILE A 5H TROF STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO AND INTO TX.
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US IS FORECAST TO BRING NORTHWARD A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 65 82 64 / 70 50 60 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 81 61 / 60 50 60 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 65 81 61 / 70 50 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 62 78 59 / 50 50 60 50.
THE LAST GASP OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS A BATCH OF WRAP-AROUND STRATUS NOW CLUTTERING THE SKIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SETTING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. BUT SOME CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE BY THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR.
A FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWS AROUND 1. TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TODAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKLY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS TO EASTERN AR AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS TAKING A LONGER TIME TO FILTER THROUGH AR. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE REGION AND ON THE EAST SIDE.
1026 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. AS OF 9AM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF I-80 WITH MOST OF THE FCST AREA UNDER A WARM-HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP BOOST CAPES TO BETWEEN ABOUT 1000-1500J IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS.
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. TODAY/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. PWB 12Z TAF SET A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MUCH OF THE DAY.
952 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LARGE CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL NUDGE THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES EAST IN TIME BY MID-WEEK. HARD RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH FLOW REGIME LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD PORTEND LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MCS ACTIVITY ON WEAK IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN THE FRINGE OF THE RIDGE.
1046 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUT GRAND JUNCTION IN THE LOW 90S ON MON. IN SPITE OF THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. LINGERING MOISTURE AND GOOD DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY. BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CRAWL EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. ALONG THIS FRONT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE DEVELOPED. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND IS IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE TRAILS DOWN FROM THIS LOW INTO NE TN AND INTO NE ALABAMA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NW MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PROGGED 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS IN MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY ROBUST THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO NW TN. LN /ISSUED 246 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ A SLOW MOVING CDFNT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TN WHILE A 5H TROF STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MO AND INTO TX.
SEEING MORE SUN THROUGH THE CLOUDS TODAY SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 90 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 80 IN THE MTNS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BRINGING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. TONIGHT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. AND WE MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YDAY.
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE TROF JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS IN TOW DIPPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT DIGGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWS WEAKENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT. IT'S POSSIBLE THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH BAY BY THIS EVENING. OR THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 54 AT PINE RIDGE TO 41 AT BROKEN BOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN SRN IDAHO WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF AIA THROUGH LBF WHERE HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 80 AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT.
TRAILING EDGE OF THE CEILINGS EXTENDED NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. LOWER STATUS IS DRAPED OVER E OK AND IS SWINGING DOWN TO THE SE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OF 50S INTO 60S. S AR AND MUCH OF LA AS THE COLD FRONT IS HALFWAY INTO OUR CWA. ALSO NOTABLE IS AN NICE BIG RIDGE OVER THE W U. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE DESPITE THE STILL WET SOIL FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND BUT NOT BEFORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND DECENT CONVERGENCE WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FFA THROUGH 6 PM. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS WELL FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM MONDAY AS WINDS WILL STILL BE EASTERLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND AND IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AS DRIER AIR AND LESS CLOUD COVER ALLOWS GOOD HEATING TO TAKE PLACE.
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
1057 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CURRENTLY - A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH HINTS THAT AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE EAST AS THE USUAL SUBTLE WIND SURGE OCCURS WITH A PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE THE LOWER KEYS AREA MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE ISLAND CLOUD LINE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
940 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
705 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW OHIO WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE I 80 CORRIDOR IN NW PA. THOUGH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY SOME OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. AND THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH.
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TODAY WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES.
THE 500 MB TROUGH IS IN TOW DIPPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT DIGGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT. /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST. UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW MAN ZONES ATTM. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OUT IN A NEARLY EAST-WEST DIRECTION NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WHILE MIN READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL STAY BOA THE 70F MARK.
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL BECOMING CUT OFF FROM MAIN WESTERLIES AND WILL LINGER JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD TOWARD THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LAGGED BEHIND AND EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KSHV TO KACT TO KHDO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS PLACES SE TX IN A N-NW UPPER FLOW.
720 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO HANG ON ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO BE LOCATED IN THAT AREA.
1130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWS AROUND 1. TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TODAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKLY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
1240 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND COOLING AS IT BUILDS THE MARINE LAYER. AND DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES.
THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST, POINT TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE MOST INLAND AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES.
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY BRINGING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN APPEARS MARGINAL TO MOVE STORMS ALL THE WAY INTO TEXAS.
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST. UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA. AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. OR AT LEAST LINGERS AN OPEN TROUGH OVERHEAD. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT WITH MVFR FOG AT ALL 3 SITES BEFORE MONDAY MORNING.