Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1133 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS HUDSON BAY. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF VALENTINE. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COMPARED TO THE LOWS ATTM IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
/issued 340 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Look for warmer temperatures for the next 24 hours. Slightly warmer temperature at 850 mb, along with lots of sunshine today, will help produce afternoon highs closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the upper 50s to around 60. (Wednesday through Martin Luther King Jr Day) A couple of cold fronts, along with associated upper level disturbances, will create temperature swings and the potential for rain. A broad ridge builds over the Rockies into late week.
230 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 The cold front exited western KY around 18z with very little moisture to work with. The exception will again be the EVV area, where temps will have trouble reaching freezing over the snow cover.
247 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 Cold high pressure moving over the region currently will slide to our southeast by tomorrow morning.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS WITH MIN TEMPS AMID FRESH SNOWPACK/CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF OVERHEAD. THIS WAVE TO FOLLOW INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DOWNSTREAM TROF. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH WEAK CLIPPER SFC REFLECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1110 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 Early this morning, a cold front is dropping into northern Missouri with a few light snow showers associated with it. Strong cold air advection behind this cold front will bring cold conditions to the area today with highs in the teens across northern Missouri and the 20s elsewhere. Moderate northwest winds this morning will subside as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will shift east of the area early tonight and winds will return from the south.
COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO OUR NORTH. WARMER AREAS MAY SEE DRIZZLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
233 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVE AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR ZONES OUTSIDE THE I80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES ARE RESIDUAL. THAT ADVISORY ALSO COVERS EVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THE RIDGES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
1207 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WIND TO THE REGION. A POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NO CHANGE WAS THUS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING ADVISORY WHICH ALSO COVERS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THE RIDGES WHERE WIND CHILL INDICES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW TONIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD.
BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER BEING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS FOR A LONGER PERIOD. AS THIS LOW-LEVEL LIFT/ MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER VALLEYS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONTS WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NOT DISSIPATE OR MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY QUICKLY AND MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
At 12z Tuesday a 500mb low was located over the Great Lakes Region while an upper level ridge axis extended from California to British Columbia.
416 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST.
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
A parade of storms will continue to impact the Inland Northwest for the rest of the week and into the weekend with more rounds of mountain snow and a rain snow mix for the lower elevations. The Wenatchee and Omak areas will be tough with marginal temperatures, but the precipitation intensity may be heavy enough to produce rapid accumulations despite temperatures in the low 30s.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRI. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. MAIN STORY FOR MID WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPS AS UPPER LVL RIDGE BROADENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z WED TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS AND DEW PTS AROUND 70.
135 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
These are in response to an upper low pressure system in northern Idaho which will move through Western Montana through the overnight hours. This low will exit the region by morning. Clearing skies, a drier air mass and a pretty chilly Tuesday night may be conducive for PATCHY FROST in some lower valleys such as the vicinity of Kalispell and Polebridge.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL BE MOSTLY EAST UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND THE WINDS BECOME A MORE CONSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT WAS FROM KLWT S TO NYE. OTHER CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO GET GOING IN THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER FAR SE MT. CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODELS BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT TO KMLS BY 00Z TUE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE E DUE TO THE HIGH CAPES. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF E MT ON ON TUE. GFS LOOKED WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE WRF. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLAT NW TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH LESS WIND.
454 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
Showers and thunderstorms will decrease by mid evening as low pressure moves out of Idaho.
403 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
148 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
212 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
324 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 WX MAP SHOWING FAIRLY STAGNATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER E TX/LA/MS. MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WITH THE RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD. A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
351 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
313 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
1155 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS TO NORTHEAST NEVADA. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY CENTERED THROUGH IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN MT TOMORROW BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO KHVR/KLWT TOMORROW. WARANAUSKAS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW WITH A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma. 04 (Tuesday night through Monday) Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains entrenched over the southern plains.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA /NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN.
247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.
611 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
251 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH ONE TROUGH DEEPENING INTO NEW ENGLAND. AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE.
HEDGED CLOSER TO THE LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PERIODIC RIPPLES AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW EVENING.
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015 Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some relief arrives with the approach of a cold front. Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence associated with the upper ridge doesn't appear to be quite strong enough to squash all updrafts.
216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 There's been little change in forecast reasoning with models continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the next few days, i. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may help placement of PoPs. Recently 7h temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by 00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There's a better chance of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge, even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.
1121 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE CLOUDS ARE BUILDING EARLY TODAY AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM AND THIS WILL GIVE A HEAD START TO STORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
334 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR WITH DEEP TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.
140 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 AS THIS PAST WEEKEND'S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE.
BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND NORTH OF N.
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
1213 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ MAIN COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO IOWA. WITH THE HIGHEST 30 POP OVER EXTREME NE AL AND FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF I-65.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON.
309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
140 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON.
341 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS ACROSS THE REGION HAS STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY EVEN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FURTHER EAST.
235 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
207 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO ITS NW WAS BUILDING EASTWARD. THE POSITION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON NOW.
INITIAL MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD TO IFR AND WILL BECOME PREVAILING ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND THUNDER AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1257 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Dry conditions are still expected today and most of tonight as we await the approach of a cold front coming in from the west. Clouds will temper afternoon highs, but in our position ahead of the cold front with southerly breezes we should still be able to get well into the 60s. A long cold front will slowly edge toward us from the northwest on Friday, stretching from New England to the Ohio Valley to the Rio Grande by evening.
300 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FRIDAY.
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN/SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH ELONGATED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME STRETCHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. NOW THE OTHER HAZARD OF CONCERN IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS PERIOD. AS COLDER SUB- FREEZING AIR UNDERCUTS THIS WARMER MOIST AIR ALOFT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN/MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
ROAD CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE WARNING AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY GOOD WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. STILL SEEING A FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST NOW APPROACHING FREEZING. BUT THE SECOND SURGE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO AREAS SOUTH OF I80 BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
918 AM PST THU NOV 26 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA.
341 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
A 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
901 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 WEAK UPGLIDE/BROAD ASCENT DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. WESTERLY WINDS ORIGINATING OUT OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RETURN FLOW AND WAA FOR FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. UPDATED SKIES AND REMOVED PATCHY FREEZING FOG CENTRAL OREGON SINCE NOT VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT OR OBSERVATIONS.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AND BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OUT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA.
AND CHEYENNE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN. WITH JUST VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING EVEN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PLAINS. THERE IS FREEZING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AND MODELS STILL SHOW SNOWFALL THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SLIGHT RESURGENCE FRIDAY EVENING AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE LOW AND PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE.
249 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U. AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ONSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
1044 MBAR OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 12 KNOTS TONIGHT. POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U. WITH UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.
OTHER THAN SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1050 MB) IN VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NE FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS. EXPECT SENSIBLE WX CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN ASSOC/W AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WITH ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE LOWER- TO UPPER-30S. TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING.
242 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 A RAINY THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.
1101 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5-8 DEGREES COLDER FOR THE LOWER DESERT SITES.