Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROF TRANSLATING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EFFECTIVELY PINCHING OFF THE LOW ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS MORNING IS MATCHING UP WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CNTRL WY AND THE EXITING PORTION OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY BEING REPLACED AND CAPPED OFF FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO EFFECT THE FA. WARMER AND DRIER OVERALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UNDER INCREASINGLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH MAY JUST BE ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION.
607 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
Any storms still within the forecast area will be relatively benign as they continue to slowly migrate off toward the south and east, thanks to the frontal boundary that has already made its way through the area, as well as upper-level trough axis swinging through currently, giving it all a push.
1117 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FINALLY EXITING FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/ THE TROF ARE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN SETS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SD. MONDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND WESTERLY WINDS USHER IN A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
456 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUMPING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO LEAN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH PROVIDED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. MONDAY WILL BE A REPEAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ANOTHER 1 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME WESTERLY WINDS COULD INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE AIR. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY.
The main threat in the short term will revolve around thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon out ahead of a cold front across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Couple that with a slow moving cold front dropping through the area, unidirectional shear paralleling the front and very wet antecedent conditions and, training storms producing heavy rain may be possible. The upper level trough will move through the region by tomorrow morning leaving the area in benign northwest flow aloft.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND 7 PM TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MUST GET THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK TO COME DOWN THE SLOPES BEFORE WE RELAX. COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND QG ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM(WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS COLORADO).
428 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. ONE WILL BE WITH A SURFACE TROF/CDFNT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WITH THE UPPER TROF/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
As the synoptic cold front slides slowly south and eastward.
424 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PASSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH BREEZY /SLIGHT COOLER/ NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
337 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. LARGELY WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. AS UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.
1145 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING INCREASINGLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
THESE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEMONSTRATED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES OBSERVED ABOVE THE LOWER VOLUME CUTS ON THE RADAR DATA. SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES READINGS OF THE SEASON ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AS A +22 C 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
350 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION IS UNDERGOING SOME WEAKENING THIS EARLY MON MORNING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE DIVING SEWD OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SE WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS MECH FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF TN AND AREAS N. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN AL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
636 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
110 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'LL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND A SEPARATE JET STREAK ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR, WHICH WHILE NOT TREMENDOUS, IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WV imagery shows the SoCal trough shearing out over UT, having flattened the upper ridge well south into Mexico. West of this feature, Hurricane Blanca churns just SW of Cabo San Lucas, w/a fetch of moisture streaming from it around the ridge and into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the sfc, moist, SE return flow continues promoting upslope diurnal convection out west, where a low-lvl theta-e ridge has been anchored since last week. Models keep the theta-e ridge in place Monday, then shift it NW out of the area as the upper ridge backbuilds west.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER UTAH BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW HIGH- BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER IT. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST WILL START TO TRACK EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND 7 PM TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MUST GET THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK TO COME DOWN THE SLOPES BEFORE WE RELAX. COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND QG ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE POPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM(WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS COLORADO).
3 AM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH SUCH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 75 INCHES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ODDLY ENOUGH MAINLY TO PAIR BACK RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE SLOWER TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
08/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA INTO TUE. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT. THEN MOVING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA LATE NEXT SUN. EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS TUE FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND WED-SAT.
551 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS MOVES EAST AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. NW AL WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT. RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN AL.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
327 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND LESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPPER HIGH CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY BRINGING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. AFTER A MILD NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO EASTERN ID. BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER HIGH AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
348 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS IOWA TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE IMPACTS FOR TODAY. AS THE TROF PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROF WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S.
1139 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 WARM ADVECTION HAS BEGAN WITH THE RETREAT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS FLOW AT 2-3KFT INCREASES CLOSE TO 50KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME NEAR SURFACE MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES THE STATE.
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. BUT THE TRUE COLD AIR WITH THIS NEXT COLD SURGE WILL PROBABLY LAG BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROF AND NOT REACH MOST AREAS IN EARNEST UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU.
1122 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015 High pressure moving across northern Missouri this afternoon was giving the Ozarks some sunshine. The area of high pressure will continue to control the region's weather through the overnight hours though some lingering high clouds will move over the area. This will occur in advance of an upper level trough that will begin to move across the plains during the day on Tuesday.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TODAY.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
417 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
119 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MILDER WEATHER CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A SHORT- WAVE RIDGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FEATURED TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. A SHARP AND NARROW RIDGE WAS OFF THE WEST COAST AND EXTENDED NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. RELATIVELY QUIET/MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A LEE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE CWA AND MILD NORTHWEST BL FLOW BRINGS WARM ADVECTION. ANOTHER LEE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CWA WHILE A SHARP ARCTIC FRONT BACKS INTO THE NERN CWA.
FREEZING LINE ALONG I-10 NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE FREEZING TEMPS. WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT TO BE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS/BRIDGES & EXPOSED OBJECTS ABOVE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY 10-11 AM AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NO ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. AS SCHOOLS ARE ALREADY CLOSED FOR TODAY'S FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A MUCH NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WITH MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER AIR PERTURBATION.
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES OVER THE HEAVIER SNOWPACK OF FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAVE FALLEN DOWN TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THE HIGH PLAINS WERE SNOW-FREE, THIS THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. SOMETHING BETWEEN THE VERY WARM WRF-ARW AND THE MUCH COOLER NAM/WRF-NMMB IS PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK (WHERE 4+ INCHES FELL WITH OUR LAST STORM), EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARMEST ARW CORE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OR EVEN A BIT OF SLEET OVER EAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE DUE TO ICY ROADS INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN AREAS WHERE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRED. FREEZING RAIN. COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS.
UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN JOAQUINVALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY BRINGING A DECREASE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TONIGHT.
ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. THEN IT STARTS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THEN WEAK TROUGHING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN MOISTURE FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MAYBE EVEN MORE THAN THE WED TROUGH. SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LOW WITH THE HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND WOOD RIVER BASIN ARE THE MAIN RECIPIENTS. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WED PRIOR TO COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WITH ALL THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL.
326 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT ASCENT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW/SLEET PACK ACROSS SE OK AND PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER BUT AGAIN WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS.
AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MIXING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE JET STREAK ENHANCES THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
Temperatures Rising Above Freezing Today. Looks like temperatures will rise above freezing today for a change.
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BUT NOT A REAL CLEAR SIGNAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK TURNING OUR FLOW CYCLONIC ALOFT.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
1000 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015 THE MAIN UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BURST OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THEN EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE FOR FAR SE UT AND SW CO AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA MOVES ACROSS NRN AZ INTO CENTRAL NM. THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE BROAD TROUGH FROM LATE WEEK ONWARD. MEANING THE PROBABILITY OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STORMY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE 145W MERIDIAN DURING THIS TIME.
344 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. SEA FOG IS ALSO SEEN ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
The next cold front begins pushing into the nthrn portions of the FA late this aftn.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A NEARBY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AS BETTER FORCING ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BROAD LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. INVERTED SFC TROF WORKS THROUGH NERN WY/WRN SD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW.
629 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER IA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN H85/H7 TROUGH REACHING IA THU WHERE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. THERMAL RIDGE WILL THEN NUDGE INTO IA FRI WARMING THINGS TEMPORARILY BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAVE REACHING PACIFIC NW FRI NIGHT AND TOPPING RIDGE INTO NRN PLAINS IS NOW HIGHLIGHTING IA AND MN. 18/12Z HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. THE LOW CIG PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNDER 12 HOURS.
332 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTED SOME VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TOOK PLACE SO AS TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLIER TODAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
529 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER IA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN H85/H7 TROUGH REACHING IA THU WHERE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. THERMAL RIDGE WILL THEN NUDGE INTO IA FRI WARMING THINGS TEMPORARILY BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAVE REACHING PACIFIC NW FRI NIGHT AND TOPPING RIDGE INTO NRN PLAINS IS NOW HIGHLIGHTING IA AND MN.
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY WITH A MINOR WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
A ONCE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WHILE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE SOUTH AGAIN WHERE SMALL CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
/ISSUED 338 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015/ UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS STILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.
1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 DID CUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF TO ONE INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE SNOW IS MELTING OR COMPACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOMORROW FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
418 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AS MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY.