Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A reflection at 700-500 mb as an inverted trough will also pass through the Florida Keys, promoting an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday, with the western Straits likely the best favored to see rainfall. This is supported by good veering of winds in the 850-700 mb with winds 15 to 20 knots and some upper divergence on the eastern side of the stretching upper low.
high pressure over the Atlantic will keep the area on the western side of the high. Models have been consistent in keeping temperatures cooler than observed. So increased temperatures a degree or two for the high today.
Cooler Sundaym, with guidance suggesting highs only in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and around 90 to the mid 90s elsewhere.
248 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016 High pressure positioned over the Desert Southwest continued to bring a dry northwest flow to the region.
216 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Warm mid level temps due to the upper ridge expected to generally reduce diurnal convective coverage to isolated to widely scattered for many areas. However, weak upper energy rotating around the periphery of the upper ridge, combined with a sea breeze, expected to provide chance POPS for the CSRA/S Midlands. Late in the forecast period, Thu/Fri and beyond, models continue to indicate upper trough, surface front, and increasing moisture progressing eastward into our region. Generally clear skies across the region early this morning as the upper ridge persists aloft and water vapor imagery shows drier air over the region.
This will reinforce the cooler air mass in place across the high plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C closer to the Colorado border.
257 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Upper level northwest flow has set in behind the passage of the trough axis presently over the Central Plains.
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 An exiting upper level trough will allow for northwest flow to become the dominate pattern over the northern plains through Sunday.
As mentioned above, this activity will persist through the morning, gradually shifting southward as the 500mb trough continues to gradually build southward into the late morning/afternoon. New development will likely be along a weak 7h trough axis, where better mid-level moisture remains. However, dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s remain in place across much of Oklahoma and north Texas, despite a north wind. /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The cold front is moving southeast through the area, although a prefrontal trough has stolen much of the surface convergence. The combination of this prefrontal trough, lack of significant moisture and some stronger CIN, look to keep the precipitation chances and coverage a lot more muted than previously thought. Will keep the highest pops southeast.
Today through Sunday The main forecast issue in the short term is the continued heavy rainfall across the area associated with an area of low pressure. Given the deep warm cloud layer indicated by a freezing level of 16 kft in the 00Z LCH sounding convection will continue to efficiently produce copious amounts of rainfall. Trends in satellite and radar imagery along with latest model guidance indicates that the highest rainfall amounts through the next 12 hours will once again be over lower Acadiana where some of the heaviest rainfall has occurred over the past 24 hours.
An upper level trough was moving across Iowa this morning, but should exit the CWA after sunrise transitioning us to northwest flow aloft.
However, the latest trends show that a low level jet on the east side of the low with H850 winds near 40kt is increasing moisture transport and rainfall along the I-55 corridor south of Jackson early this morning. As we go into tonight and Sunday, the continued westward shift of the low will eventually bring an end to heavy rain and flood threat leaving behind scattered mainly diurnal showers/storms.
Evening update: most of the afternoon cumulus are collapsing with a ridge nosing in and more importantly the waning heating of the day. I increased cloud cover a bit overnight toward the Cascades/Okanogan Highlands, but with these clouds coming into the ridge I expect it will dissipate some. Cote' 06Z TAFS: Dry and VFR conditions expected at high pressure builds in tonight, before a disturbance flattens the ridge later Saturday.
Mid level inverted trough will move move across the srn peninsula early Sunday morning and into the ern Gulf by afternoon. Will continue 30 percent chance near the east coast to 40-50 percent across the interior with the highest coverage in the late afternoon west of I-4. Highs in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast and in the lower 90s across the interior.
These showers appear to be associated with the actual cold front, which seems to be hugging the Red River and inching slowly towards the south, although we're hard pressed to find any sort of identifiable density/thermal gradient at this point.
Isolated light showers will linger across the area along a cold front pushing south until around 9z before dissipating. This frontal boundary will become stationary along the east slopes of the Continental Divide Saturday with a few showers and thunderstorms developing over and near the mountains Saturday afternoon and early evening with most of this activity remaining anchored to the high terrain. The convection will be most numerous over the higher mountains and more numerous in the north than in the south.
The pesky upper low will continue to drift slowly to the west across LA before finally beginning to fill over coastal TX on Sunday. With the retreat of the low, the subtropical ridge will become re-established over the region and we will finally return to a pattern more typical of summertime. Daytime highs will be close to normal in the lower 90s with above normal mins in the mid 70s which is close to what we have seen most of this summer.
An upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest today then weaken slightly tonight, while producing another very warm day across the region. Onshore flow will increase tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough, bringing areas of low clouds and patchy fog inland Sunday morning, and cooler afternoon temperatures. An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the coming week for mostly sunny and warm weather. A broad flat upper level ridge will remain over W WA today and tonight. GFS shows weak westerly flow developing from the coast to inland areas by mid afternoon which could make today a couple degrees or so cooler than yesterday. The models have been consistent in developing a weak marine push tonight, ahead of an approaching weak dry upper level trough offshore.
High pressure at the surface has already nosed south across much of MT and winds will remain light overnight. Humidities will likely fall into the lower teens with the potential for thunderstorms by late afternoon. High pressure ridging aloft builds into western Montana for dry and warmer conditions on Saturday.
345 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Upper trough passing over the Central Plains will continue to push east but a weakness will remain in the upper ridge over TX and NM for a few days. This trough has pushed a weak cold front into the area that will result in cooler wx and an increase in rain chances through the weekend.
352 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 (Today and Tonight) Expect cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours. The initial cold front has pushed south into South Texas and secondary surge of cooler air will move south across West Central Texas today. Again, much cooler this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1250 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
Little change to the current WX pattern as an elongated H100-H70 ridge axis maintains its position over the W Atlc. A low amp frontal trof extending from the Arklatex into eastern Canada will do little resulting in a continued deep E/SE flow pattern acrs central FL. 00", but little more as the ridge axis maintains a sharp H85-H70 subsidence inversion.
208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.
441 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
The weekend begins with a deep upper low off the southern Pacific coast providing mainly upper level zonal flow across the region. resulting in highs in the 20s (or even pushing the low 30s) and lows in the teens (above zero!).
131 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
This will favor chinook winds and warmer temperatures into the weekend.
High pressure will build across the region today through Friday bringing dry weather to the region.
224 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front extending from a cyclone over Southern Ontario will bring sharply colder weather to NY and PA, beginning tonight.
The cold front in the Ohio valley will sag into our area tonight/early Friday and stall. Ridging will dominate the forecast pattern through the weekend, with an area of high pressure centered over Florida and mild SW flow across our area.
141 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Rain will end during the late afternoon and evening hours behind a cold front. Cannot rule out a few gusts above advisory levels on the higher peaks later this afternoon, but after collaboration with surrounding offices will hold off on issuance and consider an SPS. Clouds will break during Friday morning, with a fair bit of sunshine expected during the afternoon as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes behind the front, keeping the area dry on Friday.
On Friday, the pattern aloft will feature split flow with a potent upper low pressure system off the coast of CA, and our area will under the influence of southwest flow ahead of the upstream upper low.
Some icy conditions can be expected across southern Lower Michigan with freezing rain making travel hazardous. High pressure builds in for Friday and generally fair weather can be expected into the weekend except for a chance of snow Friday night. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, we will issue a freezing rain advisory for the southern zones from 12Z to 18Z. patchy freezing drizzle is expected early this morning as the DGZ is unsaturated. Sfc ridging building in for Friday but another area of f-gen arrives Friday night and this one could put down a stripe of light snow across the central or northern forecast area.
A thick veil of high clouds will move quickly into the area tonight in advance of a short wave trough moving out of the Dakotas. Meanwhile in central and north-central Wisconsin opted to go cooler than the MOS minimum temperature forecast. 00z models continue to show that a short wave trough will move through the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
/issued 402 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The pressure gradient will relax some today as the low pressure system across the Plains weakens. High temperatures today will range from the 70s along the coast to the low to mid 80s inland under a mix of sun and clouds.
With a deep layer ridge continuing over much of the Southeast, and very dry air above 850 mb over our forecast area, we expect fair weather overnight with above-average temperatures.
325 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 After the passage of a weak cold front, Arctic high will settle into the area tonight. Given that dry air from the Arctic ridge in the northeast area will persist, snow will have difficulties to keep developing across southwest Minnesota.
The 7 am regional surface analysis showed a fairly strong high pressure system across much of the Southeast, though a strong cold front was invading AR and OK from the northwest. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed deep layer ridging over FL, and we expect a continuation of our recent fair weather and warm temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s inland, but only in the mid to upper 60s at the beaches.
149 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
Today-Friday: cold front is already through our region and there should be reprieve with generally stable and dry air mass in place.
Precip chances will increase as we head into the overnight hours as the cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will move into the forecast area Friday morning. This is when we will have the highest rain chances of the day as better isentropic lift will be present. The front will only provide a slight cool down with daytime highs ranging from the low/mid 60s. Overnight lows will be seasonable in the lower 50s.
321 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area from tonight into Friday. While the main center of this high pressure then shifts east Friday night, extensive surface ridging will remain in place from the Great Lakes west into the northern plains through the upcoming weekend. Despite the presence of this high pressure near the surface, an extensive subtropical plume of moisture will be in position over the southern CONUS during this time frame as southern stream jet energy lifts out southwestern CONUS upper trough/low and rides into confluent upper level flow over upper midwest and Great Lakes.
Surface cold front has already backed into the Front Range and as consequently developed a strengthening denver cyclone with stronger northerly winds developing over central and western portions of the denver area. There is some fog potential later tonight and early Friday morning due to the fresh snow on the ground and continued cyclone over the Denver area. Attention for the weekend will then turn toward deep upper low driving south into Baja.
236 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
Lawrence Valley to along the Ohio River, along a cold front showing 20-30 degree temperature spreads from Kentucky to central-northern Ohio and Indiana. An upper level trough will move from Ontario into Quebec, sending this front into eastern Kentucky this evening and tonight. The brunt of the rainfall will come to an end early Friday morning, before shower activity increases from the southwest during the afternoon as an upper high across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic reasserts itself back northward following the aforementioned trough as it approaches Newfoundland.
207 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front extending from a cyclone over Southern Ontario will bring sharply colder weather to NY and PA, beginning tonight.
Cold front/wind at 1230 UTC Cavalier-Michigan-Carrington ND line moving east. High pressure ridge is moving a bit faster now and all but the far east is in southerly return flow by 12z Fri.
210 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017 Water vapor shows nearly zonal flow over the northern plains with upper low over CA. ridge covers the cntrl Dakotas. On Friday, warmer air will usher into the cwfa behind the departing wave. Temps expected to rise to near and even slightly above freezing over parts of northeast WY, southwest SD, and the Blkhls.
Weak upper level cold front with brisk northwest winds across northern Nebraska this morning Increasing moisture and mid and high clouds today with Pacific moisture streaming across western Nebraska. A closed upper level low will dig from southern California into Baja Friday and eventually work east into the Desert Southwest late this weekend. Ahead of the low, moisture off the Gulf of Mexico is shown to rapidly work northward into Nebraska late this weekend.
456 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Rain will end this evening behind a cold front.
This should significantly curtail daytime heating for those locations, so have decreased highs in the lower 70s for those regions. Upper air analysis last evening showed zonal flow over the southern part of the country as a strongly tilted trough moves southward along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the east and winds were from the southeast.
Upper low in California and Nevada will remain far enough to the south to end the isolated-scattered snow showers that are in the forecast for portions of SE Oregon and SW Idaho this morning. Our region will be influenced by high pressure building in from the north, resulting in mostly clear skies for most of the area today. Fog will form in the lower valleys again overnight causing MVFR/IFR conditions. Colder drier air has come in behind yesterday's cold front but southward-moving upper low in Oregon will still support isolated snow showers in sern Oregon and swrn Idaho today. Through Friday the Oregon upper low will move south along 120W reaching southern California late Friday.
325 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
Temperatures along the coast dropped to the low to mid 30s in many places, including 30 degrees in North Bend, and 33 degrees at the Brookings airport. Northerly winds will increase to advisory strength this afternoon in the waters south of Bandon and beyond 8 NM from shore and persist through late tonight as high pressure expands into the coastal waters.
The lower clouds and areas of drizzle and light rain have mixed out late this morning for most of the area. PoPs have been reduced for the rest of the afternoon to only cover the northwest counties of Central Alabama, closer to the cold front that has stalled out stretching from northern Arkansas northeast into the Ohio River Valley. A deep layered ridge over the southeast states will influence weather conditions across central Alabama thru the period. The upper ridge will suppress shower activity in the area. Low level moisture will persist along the western and northern edges of the low level ridge. The low cigs that blanketed north Alabama this morning have lifted with VFR conds across most areas.
Otherwise, today should be fairly quiet, dry and cold as Arctic high pressure builds toward the region. Otherwise, large scale pattern shifts later Friday night as a strong closed upper low drops southeast across the southwest U.
153 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front extending from a cyclone over Southern Ontario will bring sharply colder weather to NY and PA, beginning tonight.
The CWA will lie generally under a zone of confluence in the upper atmosphere between the northern streamflow with a departing upper low along the US/Canadian border and the southern streamflow.
355 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 Visible satellite imagery over Texas along with surface obs show a cold front over north central Texas. Looking at 12Z upper air analysis and recent water vapor imagery, the once zonal pattern has become amplified with a ridge building over Florida and a upper low closing off over northern California. Models are in pretty good agreement with bringing the upper low over the Baja Peninsula for the weekend.
A cold front with northeast winds is expected to come through the area tonight into Friday morning.
A cold front currently analyzed over the southern third of Illinois and central Missouri will make a run for the CWA today and tonight. HRRR shows a few scattered showers ahead of the cold front but the best chance of rain will be along a narrow band just ahead of the front. The cold front will stall somewhere close to the southern border by the dawn hours on Friday.
Cold front across northern McCurtain county allowing for slightly cooler temperatures across this area.
This high center is forecast to strengthen to near 1050mb near Minneapolis later tonight, with a tightening pressure gradient on its front side sustaining northwest winds over the area. While the low clouds will shift slowly southeast this evening, transient mid and high clouds are expected tonight. Winds will turn northeast on Friday as the high center passes to our north.
Looking at the weather map early this morning, high pressure remained across our area, with low pressure moving across southern Manitoba. With strong high pressure building in behind the trough, expect strong west-northwest winds to result.
A slow moving cold front moves across the OH and Mid MS valleys today and looks to become stationary across s TN or far N GA on Friday. The upper level ridge over the western atlantic and gulf of Mexico builds over the se U.
A low pressure system moving south along the west coast will bring one final round of precipitation to much of Utah today and tomorrow. High pressure aloft will then settle over the region for latter half of the weekend. Warm advection/isentropic ascent downstream from an upper low situated along the California coast continues to fuel snow across much of northern and central Utah this morning, while further south where the airmass is a bit more mild and unstable rain is the predominant precipitation type below roughly 6000 feet.
Meanwhile, surface and upper level ridging will build over the area today and tonight. A southerly flow off the cooler water will keep coastal areas in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows tonight will remain well above normal, in the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast.
157 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
Predominately light freezing rain is expected, but rain is more likely in extreme southeast sections by midday as temperatures should be just above freezing.
09z Surface analysis places an arctic cold front from Southeast Lower Michigan then back through the I-44 corridor in Missouri and Oklahoma. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 60s at most locations while the nearest freezing temperatures are located across the Northern half of Missouri and Southeast Kansas. An arctic cold front over Missouri is expected to gradually drop southeast into the Mid-South, reaching portions of Northeast Arkansas late this afternoon and into the remainder of the Mid- South tonight. High temperatures today should be slightly warmer with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and lower to perhaps middle 70s south. Cooler air will filter into the area on Friday with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s across Northeast Arkansas to upper 60s/lower 70s across Northeast Mississippi.
343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front was sliding slowly south across North Texas this afternoon. The cold front will remain nearly stationary on Friday as two distinctly different airmasses battle for position.
Rain chances expected to increase significantly today through Saturday in response to abundant moisture advecting into S TX and a developing coastal trough. In addition, a large area of diffluent flow aloft and an approaching upper level low pressure system will also aid in convection. In a nutshell, the best chance is expected to be across the eastern CWA today due to the developing coastal trough, then shifting north and NW tonight due to the trough beginning to move inland and the approaching upper low from the west. The highest rain chances will be Sat and will shift to the NE as the better dynamics shift that direction.
Upper troughs crossing New England and the Rockies will sandwich weak ridging over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. 925-850 RH profiles show moisture being pulled down from central Canada on the back side of the northeastern upper trof. As a result, we kept high temperatures this afternoon in check across the north, in the middle 40s, while going warmer in southern Kentucky with lower to middle 50s. After another quiet and cool night tonight with lows around the freezing mark, high and mid clouds will begin to enter the region Saturday from southwest to northeast ahead of an upper low digging into northwest Mexico.