Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 318 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ A broad upper ridge continues across the southern states. Broad upper ridge continues across the region with hot and humid conditions. Coverage may be a little greater on Wednesday as the ridge weakens a touch more but still hit and miss kind of stuff. A developing upper trough over the Great Lakes will send a cold front toward the Mid-South later in the week.
Northwest flow aloft will exist with low level moisture convergence as a canadian cold front moves into northern NE during the afternoon.
1135 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A Canadian cold front is expected to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North Central and Central Montana this evening.
Dew points will creep back into the lower to middle 60s today as well, so it will feel a little more humid. Models continue to show a modest cold front pushing eastward through the region later tonight into Wednesday morning, before pushing mostly east of the area in the afternoon. There is modest at best upward vertical motion from the low level frontogenesis response. Breezy west northwest winds Wednesday afternoon are anticipated, with highs in the lower 80s.
On Wednesday, another cold front associated with a large upper low situated near the Great Lakes region, will cross into the central Plains and induce convective activity Wednesday evening.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 91 74 93 / 50 20 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 73 89 73 90 / 50 30 50 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 72 89 73 89 / 50 30 50 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 70 86 70 85 / 60 40 60 40 70.
On Tuesday a large upper level low begins to deepen over central Canada while drifting slowly to the south and east. The surface reflection in the form of a cold front will track through the Northern Plains during the day, with the frontal boundary pushing into our CWA sometime after 15Z. Wednesday looks dry during the day with temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s. The upper level low over central Canada rotates into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday night, driving another cool front through the region on Wednesday night. There are still model differences on the precipitation potential for Wednesday night as the frontal boundary drops through and a possible vort lobe swings around the aforementioned upper level low.
Clear and warmer tonight as the heat continues to build across the Pac NW. An upper ridge will develop and gradually strengthen over the PacNW through midweek. The ridge axis will remain centered west of our forecast area as it amplifies over Oregon and Washington. The ridge will result in dry conditions and a warming trend. Triple-digit heat returns to the lower valleys starting on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.
Attention then turns to an eastward advancing cold front. Outside of thunderstorms, today will be partly cloudy and warmer than yesterday with afternoon highs from the upper 70s across the Buffalo Ridge to the mid 80s along the MO River Valley.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Today the subtropical ridge axis will be to the n with a SE steering component across the CWFA. This will push the mid-level theta-e ridge a little farther w than yesterday and in general we expect there will be less coverage of storms across the Trans Pecos as a result. More of the same Wed as the mid-level theta-e ridge will be on the far wrn periphery of the CWFA with what we see as another tick down in coverage of storms across the Trans Pecos.
High pressure will begin to move in from the northwest this afternoon, and will be the dominant feature over the region tonight and Wednesday, keeping conditions dry and mild. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
120 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A cold front will continue to push through southern Vermont this evening bringing continued showers and isolated thunderstorms; some may be strong.
Broad high pressure ridging over the ArkLaTex region as well as the western Atlantic. Main difference is the frontal boundary over the Mississippi River Valley and Mid Atlantic will shift slightly northward over the Mid Atlantic region as a warm front. The weak lee side trough over the forecast area will slowly begin to lose its definition over the near term, and rain chances will be lower they have been for the past few days. That being said, kept chance PoPs along the PeeDee and northern Midlands as a few stray thunderstorms would not be out of the question given the higher lift and instability along the border. Mid-week, we remain influenced by high pressure overhead while the storm track stays to our north.
A brief region of ridging across the northern area will largely keep the north of the PA/WV line tonight and into the day dry across the area. As time goes on with this pattern with a series of troughs, the flood potential builds with each round of convection with limited allowance for runoff/saturation of soil.
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with a cold front bringing in showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. Widespread rain will occur Tuesday as a cold front moves through, but there definitely could be areas that don't see much while others wallow in amounts up to an inch.
355 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A plethora of deep tropical moisture associated with an inverted trough is causing unsettled weather conditions across the Keys marine zones. The Lower Keys received about a trace this morning. This trend has carried over from last night into Tuesday morning and continues to be supported by the high resolution models. Guidance has the showers congealing over most the Keys this afternoon before weakening during the evening hours as the inverted trough scurries away from the area. The tropospheric moisture coupled with local effects will induce showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms, with the highest pops in the Gulf waters (30 to 40%) while the land areas near (25%). A ridge of high pressure from the Atlantic will extend into the Keys on Wednesday evening, with a dry Saharan air mass advecting through the troposphere.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The broad ridge of high pressure elongated across the Southern CONUS attempts to strengthen and center just off the Southeastern coast as a weak inverted 500mb trough swings into South Texas off the Western Gulf on Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal highs and near normal lows continue triple digit heat along and west of I69C, with upper 90s to near 100 into the lower RGV. With abundant low level moisture and slight weakness in the ridge into Wednesday, will slightly bump up the chance of rain through the short term.
130 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Aviation - Mostly Cool and Dry Weather This Week - Most of this week's weather will be the result an usually deep eastern North American trough. In fact the M-Climate return interval for having an upper trough this deep is one day in 2 years. The short term ridge between the two of them bring us a cool and clear night tonight. We could see some elevated convection the warm front lift part of the system late Tuesday night. The cold front comes through Wednesday afternoon, it is likely not to have much precipitation with it as there is a lot of mid level dry air at this point.
Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s for most valley areas, with upper 80s atop the higher plateaus/mountains in our eastern counties.
The main driver of this increase in monsoonal flow and moisture taking place this week, over the southwest, is the presence of a high pressure system centered towards the east. Being on the western fringe of this high allows for sufficient flow of moisture from the south. By Wednesday, a strong ridge of high pressure develops over the Pacific Northwest, extending into the Great Basin. Light winds away from storms with cooler conditions overall.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will build back westward a little more this afternoon.
1217 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, as an upper level ridge continues to dominates our weather.
1216 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will prevail into the weekend. Lows are on track, although a slight increase into the lower 80s was needed for the beaches and Downtown Charleston as the wind surge over the waters and Charleston Harbor will help keep conditions a bit more mixed there. High pressure will prevail aloft and at the surface. A cold front will approach the region late week and into the weekend but is expected to stall just north of the area.
1113 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A cold front will over southern PA will slip south of the Mason/Dixon Line tonight, followed by much drier and cooler air. High pressure will build into the region from the midwest for Tuesday.
Expect another very mild and muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.
Upper-level ridge will setup residence over northern Nevada, and will bring above-normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest and south into northern California.
Given the upper level ridge that exists just north of the GA border, it is likely to continue to fall apart before ultimately being pulled off to the east. The surface and upper level ridges have moved a bit further south so they will allow a bit more moisture to move into N GA through the short term than earlier expected. Temps Tonight and Tuesday night will dip down into the lower 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the NE GA mountains.
Heat Index Values will be in the low 100s along and west of I-65. Most models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts along the Upper Cumberland, which has been winning the rainfall lottery lately. Five-day rainfall totals are anywhere from 2 to 4 inches across the area, with the lowest amounts near the TN/AL border and the highest amounts in our NE counties.
423 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will provide for another comfortable mid summer day today with low levels of humidity.
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Canadian high pressure will build south into the northern plains over the next few days, for mild temperatures and generally dry weather. A few showers are possible in the far northeast corner of the state this afternoon with the instability available with cold air advection and proximity to departing low pressure. Upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to slide east and flatten out over the weekend, spilling hot air across the divide.
636 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was located near the Oklahoma and Kansas border with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing well north of it. With the low level thermal ridge positioned more across northern Oklahoma, the hottest temperatures should occur across north central Oklahoma during the afternoon.
High pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest bringing a stretch of hot weather this week. The coast will be cooler due to onshore marine flow. Troughing will be in place over the weekend for cooler temperatures.
641 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will provide for another comfortable mid summer day today with low levels of humidity.
Northwest flow continues into Wednesday as an impressive high pressure ridge builds from the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest.
508 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front into northeast Wyoming through northwest South Dakota. Scattered/isolated thunderstorms continue in vicinity of cold front. Cold front continues to drop southward today and will be through the forecast area by early afternoon. High pressure settles in over the Northern Plains tonight with seasonably cool temperatures. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as upper low stalls out north of the Great Lakes. As eastern trough weakens, western CONUS ridge breaks down allowing the hot airmass to spread back into the plains.
The day is starting out on the warm and muggy side with temperatures already in the low to mid 80's. High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep E/SE flow with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
15") in place over the area and an inverted trough passing westward into the GOMEX allowing for scattered to numerous development along the sea breeze. Highs this afternoon in the lower 90s. KDAB has the lowest chance for seeing reductions due to convection, so a TEMPO group has not been included at this time, but will be monitored for future updates.
A thick mid level cloud deck has kept morning temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. Afternoon highs will rise to the upper 80s in the northeast and mid 90s in the west, with heat indices rising into the lower 100s this afternoon along and west of I-65.
624 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Tuesday looks to be another hot and dry day, followed by a "cooler" day Wednesday with better chances for showers and storms, mainly across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Sub-tropical high pressure aloft continues to dominate our weather pattern, and in combination with dry soils, above normal temperatures will result. Even so, highs will climb into the upper 90s across the Hill County to the lower 100s elsewhere, with peak heat index values in the 105 to 108 F range along the I-35 corridor and areas south and east.
948 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 It will be fair and cooler today with a mix of clouds and sun.
Since the upper flow is parallel with the low- level boundary, training of clusters of convection will move across Kentucky clipping southwest Virginia and possibly northern Tennessee.
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will build back westward a little more this afternoon.
As time goes on with this pattern with a series of troughs, the flood potential builds with each round of convection with limited allowance for runoff/saturation of soil.
519 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Northern Plains and Upper MS River Valley (> ~40N) -- bounded by ridging to the south (a west-east oriented ridge extending from TX to the Southeast Coast) and west (a north-south oriented ridge extending from the PAC NW to the Desert Southwest) -- with the Tri-State area situated at the southern periphery of the mid-latitude westerlies. Convection allowing guidance suggests that diurnal convection is [relatively] more likely to develop in the climatologically/geographically favored locations (Colorado Front Range, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge) and that additional development could occur invof the KS/NE/CO border. where stronger insolation /warmer temperatures/ are anticipated this afternoon.
With the ridge slowly breaking down to our east, the resulting weaker synoptic flow will make them tougher to pin down.
508 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Northern Plains and Upper MS River Valley (> ~40N) -- bounded by ridging to the south (a west-east oriented ridge extending from TX to the Southeast Coast) and west (a north-south oriented ridge extending from the PAC NW to the Desert Southwest) -- with the Tri-State area situated at the southern periphery of the mid-latitude westerlies. Convection allowing guidance suggests that diurnal convection is [relatively] more likely to develop in the climatologically/geographically favored locations (Colorado Front Range, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge) and that additional development could occur invof the KS/NE/CO border. where stronger insolation /warmer temperatures/ are anticipated this afternoon.
1028 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 It has been a very active morning across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters thanks to an inverted trough that has been moving across the area. The trough is riding along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that is centered in the western North Atlantic. With the forecast area now residing on the eastern side of the trough, we will be in the region of the best speed and moisture convergence. Due to the high moisture across the region, the inverted trough, and the favorable environment, have retained high chance PoPs for the rest of the day. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes through the week.
Low clouds will increase in coverage tonight as moisture returns ahead of the next cold front. A lower amplitude mid level westerly flow will continue to mark conditions through the midweek period, as the large scale pattern remains governed by extensive ridging from the western conus into the deep south and mid level troughing featured over south-central Canada. The influx of slightly higher dewpoint air will supplement daytime heating to offer a weakly unstable profile for a trailing cold front to engage during the afternoon and early evening period. Larger scale height falls arrive for the late week period, as a closed low ejecting across Ontario undergoes steady amplification with time.
1038 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will provide for another comfortable mid summer day today with low levels of humidity.
Impulses of energy in the faster flow just to the north will continue to move through the region and tap the high precipitable water air to produce intervals of showers and tstms, some with heavy rain. Cloud cover did dissipate across much of the region in the early afternoon due to subtle ridging aloft, but despite this, heat indices are not expected to reach advisory levels for long, if at all. A difficult-to-define warm front was draped somewhere west-to- east across the PAH forecast area today, and should continue to move north and out of the region tonight. The Wed night through Thu night time period appears to be very wet for most of the region, lingering into Fri for parts of southeastern MO/western KY as a drier and somewhat cooler airmass sinks into the region.
Ceiling then proceeds upward with boundary layer mixing in the afternoon followed by a chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm with the cold front after 18Z. A lower amplitude mid level westerly flow will continue to mark conditions through the midweek period, as the large scale pattern remains governed by extensive ridging from the western conus into the deep south and mid level troughing featured over south-central Canada. The influx of slightly higher dewpoint air will supplement daytime heating to offer a weakly unstable profile for a trailing cold front to engage during the afternoon and early evening period. Larger scale height falls arrive for the late week period, as a closed low ejecting across Ontario undergoes steady amplification with time.
Forecast for near to below normal temperatures remains on track for the next couple days as an upper level trough tracks across the area.
Do expect a slight warming trend across the interior as high pressure gradually builds, yet temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Elongated upper level ridge will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be similar to today or perhaps a degree cooler as the 850 mb thermal ridge is slightly weaker.
However, an active resultant sea breeze front and inland trough will support widely scattered showers/thunderstorms again, especially during the afternoon.
225 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper low centered over northern Manitoba. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much of the week as the upper low stalls out to the north of the Great Lakes. As the eastern trough weakens, the western CONUS upper ridge will break down, allowing the hot airmass to spread back over the plains.
Surface cold frontal boundary is analyzed ~half-way through the CWA, and continues a steady eastward progression. CAMS guidance this morning suggests the weak convection ongoing over the eastern forecast zones will depart/dissipate by ~mid-day, with the potential for mid-to-late afternoon storms to develop along the cold front just as the boundary is departing the far east/southeast forecast zones. High pressure will begin to move in from the northwest this afternoon, and will be the dominant feature over the region tonight and Wednesday, keeping conditions dry and mild. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
This is due to a decrease in deep layer moisture on the western side of an upper low/inverted trough axis over the eastern Gulf. The upper level trough axis will slowly move west across the northern Gulf over the next day, with moisture levels rebounding on the eastern side of the trough axis. Best rain chances (around 30-40%) will be located along the coast to south of the Highway 84 corridor. Highs will warm into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, which combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s south of Highway 84 to the coast, will yield increasing heat indices.
Earlier thoughts were that there would be a lull in activity so that the atmosphere could re-charge itself, however, this scenario did not play out due to the strong forcing from an inverted trough currently across our area. Satellite derived TWP highlights the above normal moisture encompassing the region that is associated with the inverted trough, with a large swath of drier nosing through the Bahamas. The inverted trough and deep tropical moisture will likely squeeze out another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Shower coverage will begin to decrease towards morning as the trough loses its influence on our area and moisture returns back to near normal.
257 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface analysis indicates the cold front begin to push into the western portions of our CWA this afternoon, with present SPC surface mesoanalysis suggesting an instability axis - on the order of 2000 J/KG - lying west of Interstate 29. On Wednesday, an upper level low rotates over central Canada with a vort lobe swinging into our area by afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms with highs in the lower to mid 80s. With cold air advection, temperatures will drop into the the lower 50s through the Highway 14 corridor to upper 50s in the MO River corridor.
An upper level ridge has built in over our region today bringing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A quick weak disturbance is expected to bring an isolated shower to the High Plains region late tonight, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear skies for overnight Tuesday. As the upper level ridge stays to our north, a stationary front moves in from the west that is expected to bring scattered showers along the Rocky Mountain Front for Wednesday.
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 After some early morning patchy fog downstream of the Bay of Green Bay and the interior west, focus turns west to an approaching cold front. Forecast for near to below normal temperatures remains on track for the next couple days as an upper level trough tracks across the area.
Given the low instability and lack of forcing, these should be isolated and without any significant impact. The chance for storms will move further inland during the afternoon as the Piedmont trough could lead to the development of one or two storms. Very warm today with highs in the low to mid 90s as mid-level ridging builds over the area.
The broad, 594 dam mid-level ridge elongated across the Southern CONUS will stretch from North Texas to the Southeastern seaboard. An inverted 500 mb trough/weakness will track west across the Gulf, triggering marine convection as it goes, and where the best 700 mb omega will be concentrated tonight into Wednesday. The trough will swing into South Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Daytime mercury readings from the lower 90s east (upper 80s at the beaches) to a few degrees above the century mark in Starr and Zapata Counties will prevail.
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Upper low pressure over Manitoba/Ontario will continue churn in a somewhat stationary fashion through the period. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region leading to moderately below average temperatures Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s north central to the mid 70s south.