Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 906 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/ Surface ridging nosing into Southeast Texas continues to result in decreasing winds this evening with 9 PM temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The current forecast handles temperature trends well with most inland locations experiencing freezing or below freezing temperatures tonight. /ISSUED 536 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure continues to build into SE TX this evening. Most inland locations will see freezing overnight temperatures tonight and Saturday night.
228 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 Near Omega block setup over NOAM will eventually breakdown in the period as massive ridging over the western Atlantic subsides. Arctic trough over the eastern CONUS will linger a few more days with backside impulses supporting a wavering baroclinic zone over the region. Favored NW flow upslope areas in the northern Black Hills can expect 2-4 inches of snow today, with the higher amounts generally above 6 kft.
Arctic high pressure was located over the plains, but low level downslope flow had eroded the cold air in extreme southwestern Kansas around Elkhart. If skies clear father south then mins could drop to the lower single digits even as far south as Dodge City.
443 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 The storm system will exit the region this morning and high pressure will begin to build into the area.
Brisk northwest winds will aid in additional light snow this morning, followed by isolated/scattered flurries into early this afternoon courtesy of upslope flow along the higher terrain. 5 inches on ridgetops near the Virginia border. This upslope component to the low level flow will make it tough to shake low clouds this morning, with some clearing finally working in later this afternoon as surface ridging approaches from the northwest. Although winds will diminish in magnitude through the day, raw conditions will be on tap with highs only mustering the low-mid 20s. Aforementioned high pressure working into the lower Ohio Valley tonight will cool temperatures into the single digits for the most part, with a few locales south of Mountain Parkway perhaps remaining in the 10-12 degree range.
A cold front will shift winds to the east tonight with a few high clouds streaming by.
Surface wise, a cold front is draped from the Florida panhandle southward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and down into the eastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. A secondary cold front in the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico will move eastward and clear our entire county warning area by late this afternoon.
Despite plenty of sunshine and a pretty afternoon, temperatures only managed to reach the lower and middle 20s across the area.
242 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Oklahoma will remain in strong northerly flow aloft while the long-wave trough and low pressure remain positioned from Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes into the southern plains.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A cold front located over Lake Okeechobee early this morning will continue to move southward through South Florida and be located over the Florida Key by Sunrise.
Weak upper ridge over the area. Satellite showing plenty of clouds moving through the ridge and expect mostly cloudy skies overnight into Saturday morning. The upper ridge builds stronger over the weekend and will push most of the cloudiness further to the north.
Enough of a pressure gradient tonight with the arrival of the high pressure, combined with the clear skies, and cold min temps, expect wind chill values to warning criteria over the northern half of the forecast area. An upper level short wave trof will drop southward through the forecast area tonight and Saturday morning before departing. At the surface, the high pressure over the Northern Plains late this afternoon will move over the region by Saturday afternoon. There is virtually no moisture for this trof to work with and no precipitation is expected. The wind is becoming less favorable with time and only expect some occasional flurries over the higher terrain tonight.
High pressure remains situated over western and central North Dakota tonight. Areas of light snow and clouds over my southwest and far south central continues to shrink in coverage as the mid level wave starts to exit southeast and as strong Arctic high pressure builds south into the Northern Plains.
However, have still kept some low PoPs as this weak trof moves thru the area. Mdls continue to be in good agreement with an upper trof digging into the region with an associated cdfnt dropping thru the area. However, with winds becoming sly, Sun shud be slightly warmer compared to today.
Temperatures this morning were in upper teens to the lower 20s. Temperatures will be cool today with highs only topping out in the lower 20s. High pressure will build into the region tonight.
Shaded temperatures a bit warmer this morning and cooler this afternoon.
However, the heavier snowfall is winding down as the upper low exits our area to the east, and thus allowed the Winter Storm Warning to expire and trimmed back the Winter Weather Advisory to just the northeastern part of the forecast area.
By late Saturday night the warm air advection gets going as the primary trough pushes through. Right now the strongest area of lift moves from central Nebraska to eastern Kansas, thus the idea of the higher QPF amounts being further south.
With some breaks in the clouds later tonight, a cold airmass already in place will be reinforced as high pressure drifts south out of the Northern Plains states toward the area with continued low level cold air advection.
325 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 A cold front pushes off the coast early this morning.
Ample sunshine, daytime mixing, and the south to southwest wind should allow temperatures to warm into the low 50s near the TX/NM state line while the cold airmass will be a bit deeper across the Rolling Plains taking longer to mix out so highs will remain in the low 40s.
Clear skies and excellent VSBY will then prevail the remainder of forecast period once the low clouds clear out.
A weak warm front will lift northeast across the area tonight into Saturday morning for light rain at times.
Freezing rain is also being reported south of Polson. As such, we've increased QPF and snow amount totals for the Highway 93 corridor from Eureka south through Kalispell and points eastward of there tonight into tomorrow morning to account for enhanced precipitation and mountain snowfall amounts currently observed. With low temperatures cooling to near freezing there could be a few places that freeze up causing slick spots.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery showed an upstream upper ridge axis along the West Coast and downstream upper trough axis over the MS Valley. Short range model/ensemble guidance is in good agreement this weekend with the upper ridge amplifying from the Great Basin into western Canada, and downstream upper ridge nearly stationary over the eastern half of the CONUS.
As such, we've increased QPF and snow amount totals for the Highway 93 corridor from Eureka south through Kalispell and points eastward of there tonight into tomorrow morning to account for enhanced precipitation and mountain snowfall amounts currently observed. With low temperatures cooling to near freezing there could be a few places that freeze up causing slick spots.
Warm front pushes through western South Dakota on Saturday with increasing west-northwest low level flow.
318 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Arctic high pressure remains entrenched over the upper midwest with generally fair skies and temperatures mostly in the single digits.
As the high moves over the region, winds will become light from the north again after sunset. A weak short wave trough will move southeast across north and east Texas through Saturday, but nothing will come of it locally, though a bit of reinforcing plains high pressure will filter south at the sfc. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Another cold front will backdoor into the area tomorrow which will knock our high temperatures back into the 30s and 40s.
335 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 A sunny but cold Saturday today as an area of high pressure builds across the Midwest.
1243 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 A southern stream low pressure system moves northeast across the region into Saturday.
A re-enforcing shot of cold air will move into the area tonight leading to similar to maybe slightly cooler highs to today across the area tomorrow.
305 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Arctic high pressure continues to sag gradually south across the area.
Light and variable winds will dominate tonight; however, watch for winds from the north, at 10 knots or less, for tomorrow afternoon, as another weak cold front moves across West Central Texas. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 20s areawide by daybreak Saturday, with a few readings in the upper teens possible. A backdoor cold front will move through the area on Saturday. The front will be dry and winds will be light but temperatures will be cooler. Expect sunny skies, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 40s north, to the upper 40s south.
1121 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 High pressure will maintain north to northwest winds around 5 knots overnight with slightly higher amounts near Tyler.
As the night progresses, the cloud cover and light snow phenomena will gradually go away from north to south, leaving ideal radiational cooling conditions in their absence while a strong arctic high pressure system centers itself over the Dakotas and MN. With temperatures in the teens below to around 20 below zero (or colder), though, not really thinking a headline for wind chills is warranted in a high pressure/light wind situation like tonight is expected to be.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the Nature Coast to around 60 across SW Florida. SCEC/SCA level winds expected through the evening as a cold front continues to push south of the area. Winds will become more northwesterly by daybreak Saturday which will bring cooler drier air into the area. Winds and seas stay elevated behind the front for Saturday as high pressure builds into the area.
Cold air advection is strong behind today's cold front, with a 30-40 degree (F) drop in 24-hour temperatures. Saturday's highs will struggle to break out of the 30s for many areas, with the 'warmest' temperatures across the south in the low-mid 40s (F).
Water Vapor satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low over Southern Indiana while a deformation axis extends into portions of Western Kentucky and West Tennessee. Short term model trends indicate the upper level low responsible for winter precipitation will continue to move away from the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting to an end to any precipitation. Temperatures into the weekend are expected to remain mostly below freezing.
Snow accumulation rates will be diminishing from southwest to northeast early this morning as the current event wraps up and low pressure exits east. Gusty winds will result in wind chill values in hovering in the low single digits throughout the day. Well below temperatures and dry conditions can be expected through the weekend as cold high pressure transitions over the forecast area.
306 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 A complex area of low pressure pushes across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into early Saturday.
Some freezing spray can be expected. Any heavy freezing spray will become moderate as winds/waves slowly diminish. The tight pressure gradient between this high and and an area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will keep winds elevated tonight.
Relatively warmer temperatures of 10 to 20 below are being reported across the southwest with the onset of return flow.
Surface flow originating from the large Arctic high pressure moving south from the Dakotas will keep profiles quite dry below 850 mb. The Arctic high pressure will pass across Iowa on Saturday and will continue the clearing skies and cold temperatures. High temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than today.
Through this Afternoon: Strong cold front was moving through the region early this morning. Strong cold air advection is expected through the day, with daytime highs only reaching near 50 to the lower 50s across much of the region, except north central Florida where temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 50s.
Cold north northwest flow behind the main low pressure trough will keep areas of light snow in the north and west, mainly in the mountains tonight.
Will be living much of the day Saturday below the center of the ridge with weak flow, so with sunshine may be a bit more challenge to warming. ALight snow will be possible across mainly southeast SD into the lower Missouri valley Saturday night as warm advection zone trudges eastward and wave dives southeast.
Synoptic pattern hasn't changed much during the past 24 hrs, w/an upper trough over the ern CONUS, and a ridge over the west, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.
608 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: IFR to MVFR level CIGs will continue to prevail during the TAF period due to significant moisture in the lower levels. Southerly flow in the low levels will continue to advect warm, moist air into the region. Upper heights will begin to slightly increase as the weak trough exits the region this evening and drier air begins to filter into the mid levels, resulting in a lull in shower activity as night falls. Shower activity could begin to pick up once again in late night hours as another weak disturbance begins to near the Lower MS River Valley Region.
617 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A little warm frontal fog was sneaking into far southeast NE this morning, with a narrow band of light rain just over the border in SD. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad and flattening upper-level trough across the central US, with 100-115kt upper-level jet extending from WA/OR across the Rockies and into western SD/western NE.
This activity should increase and pull slightly farther north through the afternoon and into the evening as a strong upper level low moves south into the PacNW.
Clouds will linger for most of the morning but as the trough over eastern Nebraska at 03z pushes into eastern Iowa by 18z.
The warm front is now well to the north with southerly flow established across the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 61 73 60 / 30 40 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 59 71 58 / 10 30 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 59 70 59 / 20 30 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 52 71 55 / 10 20 30 40.
As low moves into east-central Oklahoma, cold front will push into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s ahead of the front across portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
A weak warm front extending from the western Florida panhandle to about southwest Mississippi will lift northward through the remainder of the forecast area this morning. Highs today will be near 80 with lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s.
the plague of warm fronts that are holding just to your south on a November night. A cold front will arrive from the north late this morning through the afternoon hours. As the cold front approaches today, there will be additional lift, and with the partial saturation of the atmosphere, this will probably be drizzle once again.
722 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend. A surface pressure ridge will remain in the region through tonight. The pressure gradient will be weak with the ridge axis in the region.
The main cold front will drop into the Medford CWA tonight.
1236 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the northeast through Friday.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with daytime highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s and lows tonight in the upper 50s Nature Coast to lower and middle 60s elsewhere.
945 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the northeast through Friday.
1204 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Much warmer air will spread north across the state today and persist across the southeastern half of Pennsylvania on Friday. A weak cold front will move through the area Friday with a few showers likely, mainly over the northwest third of the state.
955 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Rain chances will continue this morning as a warm front completes it's passage.
1057 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Cold front has moved across NW portions of the fa this morning causing winds to shift towards the north. Temperatures north of the front will be slow to warm with cooler air moving into the area. With the clouds and cooler air moving in, have lowered high temps across parts of N OK. For Friday, it will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Into the weekend, weak 500mb ridging will set up, with a return to persistent warm air advection and highs back well above normal 80s for most, approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s along the Red River into north Texas.
/issued 218 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ Southerly flow has brought warmer temps and dewpoints across the region. Surface pattern to remain unchanged through much of the weekend with high pressure to the east and a low to the west, maintaining breezy, warm, and humid conditions each day. Temperatures to range from lows in the upper 60s to highs in the lower 80s.
The combination of a low level thermal ridge, a dryline located just east of our area, and gusty west to southwest winds will result in record heat and drying in the boundary layer. Low tonight will range from the lower 50s across the northern Big Country to the lower 60s over the far southeast part of the area.
Surface analysis has a low pressure system in western Kansas with a cold front extending to the northeast across the forecast area. The cold front will push to the south as the low moves southeast. There will be some warm advection with a return of moisture in the lower levels. Model spread has not diminished since 24 hrs ago as substantial diffs remain in how the last 2 runs of the EC/GFS/CMC/UKMET handle timing/location/intensity of the ejection of the Wrn USA trof. The GFS/UKMET runs are on the fast side of the guidance envelope with trof passage here Tue. A warm front will be approaching from the SW. Sun: cold frontal passage. Mon-Wed: Much cooler than normal with a strong/chilly high heading E along the US-Can border. Once the low clouds clear out there should be some clearing for the afternoon hours.
The Pacific Northwest upper level trough continues to amplify and dig deeper into the West Coast, resulting in the jet rotating from a nearly westerly flow to a southwest flow, and will continue that transition through the day. As the low deepens and rotates south and east, models continue to open this cut off low back into an open wave by late Friday.
956 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Warm front has lifted north. Main warm front has lifted well north of the forecast area, but have a secondary wave lifting through now with isolated to scattered showers. Cut back POPs a bit overnight, but GFS and ECMWF still indicate decent chance of some showers a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front pushes through on Friday then stalls just south of the CWA Friday night.
Fast NWLY flow aloft will be over the area today and tonight ahead of a strong upper low dropping southward along the coast of British Columbia. Snow levels will be 3500-5000 feet so snow will be confined to the higher mountains.
519 AM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and west of the forecast area, with northerly winds across the area. Upper level analysis shows broad trough across the region, with strong westerly jet from the Pacific NW to the Great Lakes region. Flow aloft will turn more southwesterly tonight into the early part of the weekend as trough digs southeastward across the western US.
Thus far, freezing drizzle has not been a threat from a lack of ice crystals as of 1150Z. Chilly conditions today as broad upper level troughing filters cold Canadian air in the state.
This begins to change overnight and continuing into the weekend as rain chances begin to increase as a cold front approaches the region.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot air is currently locked up over the Lower Intermountain West. Forecast begins with the center of Arctic air over Nunavut which then spreads over the whole of southern Canada and spills back west through a trough off of the coast of British Columbia. Today into this evening: Expect drying conditions as cold high pressure moves through the area. Meanwhile the trough off the coast of British COlumbia will dig south to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest scooping up a large slug of pacific moisture and lifting it into the zonal flow expressway.
Winds will shift to a northerly direction late afternoon and into the overnight as a cold front passes. /Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ Temps will continue the warming trend today ahead of the next cold front which is currently into northwest KS. This forecast trended toward maintaining a stronger gradient in temps across the region which results in a cooler temp forecast for much of NE OK on Friday.
Temperatures remain seasonable in the low 80s with mild overnight lows from the low 60s across Glades County to low 70s along the east coast.
/issued 252 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ A modest mid level speed max (50kt@5h) and assocd dry shrtwv trof will track east across the area to north of the CWFA this PM. This with a broad low level thermal ridge (20C-21C@85h) will result in dry/breezy conditions with 20-25kts@85h from SE NM-PB. Sat-Sun will be even warmer/drier as 85h thermal ridge amplifies and increase to 22C-24C. Difference are attributed to GFS' open trof solution in mid level flow. Regardless coolest day looks to be Wed, but warmer wx returns Thur with another dry front on Fri.
The 10Z KXMR sounding shows a bit of moistening in the low-levels with PWATs increasing to around 1. Weak inverted troughing along the east coast early this morning will move inland during the day.
High pressure will be northeast of the waters today providing light ne winds.
Will probably get a short warm sector break in the precip most areas today as a cold front drops southeast toward the region. Temps will vary from near 70 again near the front, to the lower/mid 60s up along the I-64 corridor north of the front.
A weak sw 850 mb jet (25 kts) ahead of a cold front will continue chances of scattered rain showers today. The cold front will approach the IL river late this morning and move across central IL this afternoon and early evening, and through southeast IL during this evening and early overnight. Cooler highs Friday range from lower 50s from Peoria north to the lower 60s in southeast IL.
626 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 In the near-term, dense fog, drizzle, and stratus will be the main concerns as an inverted trough axis/stationary boundary sets up across the CWA. While the lowest ceilings and visibilities have pulled a county or two north in the last few hours, a very gradual southward drift of the front will allow fog to redevelop in areas that have recently cleared, so have opted to continue the dense fog advisory as a near-term forecast vs. Once the boundary pushes south, rain chances will diminish and slightly cooler temperatures will build in for the overnight period.
1158 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Synopsis/Marine A wave on the frontal system moving through the area this evening will bring the risk of thunderstorms near I-94, east of Battle Creek, otherwise any lingering shower activity should come to an end by midnight as cooler and drier air move in behind the frontal system.
The lowest 5 kft of the atmosphere will remain very moist with a few patches of drizzle this morning, and a few brief sprinkles through the rest of the period.
209 PM PST Mon Jan 29 2018 The high will weaken by midweek for cooler temperatures, but temperatures will stay well above normal in weak offshore flow through the weekend.
Tuesday highs should be a little warmer, with more sun by afternoon after low clouds and fog/mist clear out.