Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperatures for Thu and especially Fri. Latest model solutions are coming in slower with the southeast progression of the cold front for later today, with the frontal boundary now expected to move into central KS by this evening. The cold front is expected to make slow progress to the southeast across the forecast area for Wed, with a chance of scattered showers for most locations, as the front sags south for Wed morning. Upper level ridging quickly moves across the area on Thu with clearing skies and seasonal temperatures expected.
A surface cold front associated with the upper wave will move into northwest Kansas by afternoon and into southwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures on Wednesday should be several degrees cooler than Tuesday with highs in the low/mid 80s.
114 AM PDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Temperatures will begin warming across the region as a strong ridge builds during the week. The ridge will continue to strengthen into the weekend. Ensemble forecast models continue to show a high pressure center over Arizona slowly migrating westward as the week progresses.
The movement of the cold front is expected to be rather slow, with the rain and storms lingering from Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon.
254 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Skies were clear across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface and an upper ridge aloft. On Wednesday, an upper trough will approach the area from the west. This trough will tap into some deeper moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.
110 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 The forecast area currently sits under the influence of a expansive upper level ridge axis which encompasses much of the contiguous forty- eight. AT the surface, a cold front is noted east off the High Plains and into the Dakotas. Chances for precipitation drop off on Wednesday as the cold front exits to the southeast and upper level instability diminishes.
High pressure is continuing to promote tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley region this evening. This will result in a slightly warmer and more humid night as temperatures gradually drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s by early Tuesday morning. North of the river, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable, while further south mid to upper 80s look more likely.
216 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 We have clear skies over the area this morning with high pressure over the Tennessee Valley helping to keep skies clear. Elsa's track will keep her precipitation east of the area, so we shouldn't have any impacts from this storm, but the continued southerly flow as well as the baroclinic zone setting up with the approaching upper-level trough will focus a broad area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily diurnally driven, across all of Mississippi, Alabama, and northward into Tennessee and Kentucky.
This precipitation is resulting from a low pressure system tracking across the region, aided by an upper level trough and abundant low level moisture. Total rainfall amounts remain tricky, and will likely vary widely across the CWA, but in general it looks as through the highest amounts will be across the north and east, where some locations may receive in excess of one inch. High pressure will drop in from the north behind the exiting system tonight and will remain dominant through the day Wednesday, with dry conditions expected. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs Wednesday ranging from the lower 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest.
/Issued 414 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ Warmer and more humid air will return to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next couple days.
414 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warmer and more humid air will return to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next couple days.
an upper level trough and its associated cold front remain on track to move steadily southeast across the forecast area today and out of the area shortly after midnight. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado to the low 90s from McCook to Oakley east. the big picture shows an upper level high pressure area over northwest Arizona with northwest flow over the area. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Southerly flow on the western periphery of the high has advected slightly moister air into the CWA, leading to fog development mainly in river valleys in southeastern Missouri.
Otherwise, expect a warmer day today as warmer air moves in, with temperatures about 10-15 degrees warmer than they were yesterday. Wednesday will be another warm day across the area, as southwesterly flow aloft associated with a building upper level ridge continues across the area. However, an approaching upper level trough will begin to approach the area, which will result in some thunderstorm activity, possibly some dry, to pop up across Southwestern Montana during the afternoon, with storms possibly reaching the plains during the evening and overnight hours. Behind this trough, a surface cold front will slide through the Plains, which will bring some elevated winds during the afternoon hours.
High pressure will strengthen over Arizona over the coming days. High pressure and associated anticyclonic circulations was centered over southern Nevada during the morning hours. Over the coming days this high pressure system will strengthen and wobble across the area from southern Nevada to northern Arizona delivering warming daytime temperatures and limiting most convection to portions of central and eastern Arizona. High pressure will remain stationed over southern Nevada and strengthen. Under strengthening high pressure aloft daytime temperatures will build with temperatures reaching near record levels at some locations by Wednesday.
Hot and mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend as high pressure dominates.
305 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A few light to moderate showers continue across the area this morning but these will to come to an end shortly as the wave responsible shifts to the High Plains. The center of high pressure will remain along the NV/UT line and with flow now becoming more northerly, any influx of deeper moisture has ended. CAM guidance remains in good agreement that the higher terrain south of the I-70 corridor will be favored for convection, along with southern portions of the Continental Divide. For Wednesday, high pressure remains overhead with convection looking favored for the San Juans and not much elsewhere. The high pressure and subsidence will lend themselves to push temps into the triple digits for our lower valleys.
A backdoor cold front is currently moving through the state as the wave responsible for yesterday afternoon and evening's showers and storms departs to the east. A few scattered showers have developed along and behind of the cold front as it slowly sinks south. Clouds (in addition to the cooler air moving in) should hang around long enough to result in a much cooler day Tuesday, with highs only reaching the mid 60s in the Turtle Mountains to mid 70s in the far southwest. Winds aloft will also turn northwesterly as the ridge across the western CONUS pops back up following the departure of the wave. The ridge continues to build back in on Wednesday which should make for a pleasant day with warming, yet still seasonable to slightly below average, temperatures.
521 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A short wave trough will push through the northern extent of the ridge over Northeast Montana this morning into the afternoon hours.
An approaching upper trough is forecast to produce cyclogenesis over southern Minnesota, with the system moving across Wisconsin tonight. It will be much cooler and breezy as well, with temperatures about 20 degrees below normal.
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warm and humid weather can be expected until a cold front approaches Wednesday and increases rain chance across the region. Another warm, humid day can be expected as a broad ridge continues to define Upr OH weather. A deepening trough digging across the Midwest and Great Lakes will back flow to the southwester over the Upr OH on Wednesday. The intrusion of the longwave trough with better jet support is likely to maintain moist convection through the night. The trough and its associated sfc cold front will slowly progress east through the end of the week, promoting continued precipitation chance and moderating of temperature.
549 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 High pressure along with drier air will be moving away from the area today with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning to the CSRA and southern Midlands late this afternoon.
Strengthening high pressure will bring hot and dry conditions through much of the week.
Forecast Summary: A cold front sliding through the region will bring a good chance for thunderstorms to eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa today and tonight, then cooler temperatures for Wednesday.
Current surface observations across central Indiana show temperatures from the upper 70s to low 80s while dew points are sitting in the low 70s. Skies were clear across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface and an upper ridge aloft. On Wednesday, an upper trough will approach the area from the west. This trough will tap into some deeper moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.
In the mid- levels there is an upper level trough located to the south across central Alabama and Mississippi. Expect the best lift and forcing will be with this trough to the south today. Cloud cover will increase as well with highs a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. Elsa's track will keep her precipitation east of the area, so we shouldn't have any impacts from this storm, but the continued southerly flow as well as the baroclinic zone setting up with the approaching upper-level trough will focus a broad area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily diurnally driven, across all of Mississippi, Alabama, and northward into Tennessee and Kentucky.
636 AM PDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Low pressure moving northward west of the coast today along with a northward surge of the monsoonal trough from the Great Basin will bring an increase in afternoon and evening winds and some instability to the forecast area today. There is a slight possibility of dry thunderstorms over northern Klamath and Lake counties late this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough moves through with elevated moisture and instability.
We have clear skies over the area this morning with high pressure over the Tennessee Valley helping to keep skies clear. Elsa's track will keep her precipitation east of the area, so we shouldn't have any impacts from this storm, but the continued southerly flow as well as the baroclinic zone setting up with the approaching upper-level trough will focus a broad area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily diurnally driven, across all of Mississippi, Alabama, and northward into Tennessee and Kentucky.
The monsoon ridge is currently centered near the NV/UT border, producing northeasterly steering flow across our region. DCAPE is best over Graham/Greenlee, this may produce a more organized outflow coming off the high terrain into the Gila River Valley. Through the remainder of the forecast period, the upper high will be centered to our north or northwest maintaining a consistent east or northeast flow.
Kept temperatures cooler across the northern Sandhills as the front will pass through that area this morning bringing a little bit of a cooler air mass with 850 temps in the lower to mid 20s.
Skies were clear across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface and an upper ridge aloft. On Wednesday, an upper trough will approach the area from the west. This trough will tap into some deeper moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.
The main rain shield is now moving into the Lower and Middle Keys. Conditions will be quickly deteriorating across the island chain, especially across the Lower Keys. Tropical storm force sustained winds are expected in the Lower Keys, with possible frequent tropical storm force wind gusts in the Middle and Upper Keys. A flood watch remains in effect through this afternoon for the Lower and Middle Keys. With that said, more recent CAM guidance suggests that the western end of the Lower Keys could see even higher amounts. An Atlantic ridge will build back in across the Florida Peninsula tonight and Wednesday. This ridge will largely dictate the forecast for the balance of the week, with below to near normal rain chances and near to or slightly above temperatures expected.
/issued 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ Upper level ridge continues to remain to the west of the forecast area today. Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80's. /WCI Convective activity will be on the downward trend by Wednesday as the upper high to our west begins to build eastward. Overall temps will remain in check ask the center of the upper high will remain well to our west and surface moisture will continue to remain abundant.
Today transitions the high center across Arizona and into southern Nevada/Utah.
Overall, think the lower cigs and vsby should come back to VFR by 15Z. Threats: Hail: Up to quarters Winds: Up to 80 mph Tornado: Very unlikely Flooding: Possible High pressure sits over the Great Basin today, placing the Panhandles in north to northeast flow aloft. Depending on the strength and position of the low, this will be the feature that slows the front and determines the extent of where we will see precip.
531 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A few light to moderate showers continue across the area this morning but these will to come to an end shortly as the wave responsible shifts to the High Plains. The center of high pressure will remain along the NV/UT line and with flow now becoming more northerly, any influx of deeper moisture has ended. CAM guidance remains in good agreement that the higher terrain south of the I-70 corridor will be favored for convection, along with southern portions of the Continental Divide. For Wednesday, high pressure remains overhead with convection looking favored for the San Juans and not much elsewhere. The high pressure and subsidence will lend themselves to push temps into the triple digits for our lower valleys.
Best chances will remain over the southeast with whats left of the aforementioned shear axis and a weak cold front approaching from the northwest.
521 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Yesterday's trough is racing east across South Dakota this morning, with the H5 ridge shifting back west across UT/NV. This is setting up better ridging across our region for the short term, with northwesterly flow aloft. These areas will be close enough to the ridge that it will be tough for convection to stay together this afternoon. Wednesday will see another weak wave rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge.
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) After several days of cloudy and wet weather, thanks to the pesky upper low over east central Texas, we'll start to see a little more sunshine again later this week. The upper ridge over the Four Corners region will start to nose back into northwest Texas while the upper low shifts down toward Corpus Christi and Brownsville.
These clouds and precip will keep NE MS in the upper 80s this afternoon with warmer temps across east AR and West TN where sun will be more plentiful. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s and winds are light. Similarly, water vapor indicates a few areas of broad cyclonic circulation within a larger trough along the Gulf Coast region. High pressure will continue to shift east today. Temperatures will be a little cooler across North MS where clouds and precip reside. Clouds and precip will keep daytime highs a few degrees cooler than we have seen, mainly in the middle to upper 80s.
Discussion: A weak upper trough is located across the Mississippi Valley with southerly flow bringing a warm front northward late tonight. Higher rain chances are expected in this timeframe as a series of upper troughs will bring a wet pattern to the region.
1213 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warm and humid weather can be expected until a cold front approaches Wednesday and increases rain chance across the region. Another warm, humid aftn and eve can be expected as a broad ridge continues to define Upr OH weather. A deepening trough digging across the Midwest and Great Lakes will back flow to the southwester over the Upr OH on Wednesday. The intrusion of the longwave trough with better jet support is likely to maintain moist convection through the night. The trough and its associated sfc cold front will slowly progress east through the end of the week, promoting continued precipitation chance and moderating of temperature.
The monsoon ridge is currently centered near the NV/UT border, producing northeasterly steering flow across our region. DCAPE will be best over Graham/Greenlee, which may produce a nice organized outflow coming off the high terrain into the Gila River Valley. Today transitions the high center across Arizona and into southern Nevada/Utah.
235 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Lift associated with an upper trough has mostly moved off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon, however isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still occur over our south central South Dakota zones for a few more hours. Although MUCAPE has risen to around 1000J/KG over most of the forecast area, large scale subsidence with weak ridging between the departing upper trough and another upper trough currently over eastern Montana is limiting convective development to a few short-lived showers so far this afternoon. Shear and synoptic scale lift will increase as the next upper trough begins to affect the region this afternoon and tonight. On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build toward the area from the west with a return to warmer temperatures.
Today, the circulation around a broad upper low over the central/western Gulf Coast is driving tropical moisture across the CWA, with analyzed PWATs at 1. Could see isolated to scattered showers and storms persist overnight as the aforementioned upper low promotes weak lift and WAA across the area.
Weak upper troughing generally remains oriented northeast-southwest over the Deep South with a very gradual northward movement through the period. This combined with the weak upper troughing results in a continuation of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms through the period. As far as temperatures go, look for lows tonight to be rather uniform across the region, mainly in the lower 70s.
1247 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon as upper level high pressure expands overhead. /issued 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ Upper level ridge continues to remain to the west of the forecast area today. Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80's. /WCI Convective activity will be on the downward trend by Wednesday as the upper high to our west begins to build eastward. Overall temps will remain in check ask the center of the upper high will remain well to our west and surface moisture will continue to remain abundant.
149 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Ridging to the west of the area will keep door open for disturbances dropping in from the northwest tonight. Ridge axis shifts into the area tomorrow boosting temperatures to around 100 degrees in many areas. Late in the day into the evening hours a series of disturbances will duck under the ridge and push through the area.
Hard to tell coveage of this MVFR deck until the higher clouds depart with system moving thru central/southern MN into Wisconsin.
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A few specks of reflectivity showing up on radar this afternoon as moisture in the low levels returns to the area. Weak upper wave to move E-SE from the high plains later tonight and tomorrow and will push a weak surface boundary towards the area tomorrow.
1135 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A few light to moderate showers continue across the area this morning but these will to come to an end shortly as the wave responsible shifts to the High Plains. The center of high pressure will remain along the NV/UT line and with flow now becoming more northerly, any influx of deeper moisture has ended. CAM guidance remains in good agreement that the higher terrain south of the I-70 corridor will be favored for convection, along with southern portions of the Continental Divide. For Wednesday, high pressure remains overhead with convection looking favored for the San Juans and not much elsewhere. The high pressure and subsidence will lend themselves to push temps into the triple digits for our lower valleys.
High pressure will strengthen over Arizona over the coming days. High pressure aloft has shifted to a position over northwestern Arizona/southern Nevada/southwestern Utah. In addition, temperatures will begin a warming trend and will reach about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure and associated anticyclonic circulations was centered over southern Nevada during the morning hours. Over the coming days this high pressure system will strengthen and wobble across the area from southern Nevada to northern Arizona delivering warming daytime temperatures and limiting most convection to portions of central and eastern Arizona. High pressure will remain stationed over southern Nevada and strengthen. Under strengthening high pressure aloft daytime temperatures will build with temperatures reaching near record levels at some locations by Wednesday.
As evidenced by the low clouds and fog this morning, the near-surface airmass remains very moist, with surface dewpoints hovering in the mid to upper 60s again this afternoon and PWATs in the 1. Regarding the synoptic setup, the upper level ridge is currently centered near Las Vegas, NV with a nearly stationary midlevel cyclone over South Texas. Further north, an upper level trough and its associated moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery transiting around the northeastern edge of the upper high. As the surface boundary will likely remain north of the CWA, temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm slightly due to a small increase in 500mb heights as the upper ridge pushes slowly eastward. With the building upper ridge, however, precipitation coverage will likely be limited, although the potential will exist for a few brief downpours.
To the north and east of the front, moist easterly surface flow with dewpoints now in the lower 60s will help to result in at least moderate instability by mid-afternoon toward Blaine County and adjacent areas. The low-level easterly flow combined with westerly flow aloft is also resulting in significant wind shear.
Models had been showing this wave and a strong cold front shifting inland across Idaho and Montana Wednesday afternoon creating a possible gusty wind scenario.
The cold front over northwestern Kansas this afternoon is expected to move southeast and into northern Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Storm chances will increase through the afternoon in the north in the vicinity of this cold front.
With the passage of the cold front, cooler temps are expected. Models suggest that the pattern will amplify slightly through the week as ridging builds over the western CONUS into western Canada with downstream troughing into eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeast U.
Vertical ascent from a broad mid-level Trough over the Northwest Gulf region is serving to greatly enhance convective coverage. /Today through Wednesday/ Broad upper-level trough across the western Gulf of Mexico extending into Louisiana to support increased instability across the region through the short-term period. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s both days. Overnight low temperatures tonight forecast to fall into the lower to middle 70s.
A few showers have also developed or moved into our Central TX where the highest humidity resides.
223 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Weakening and narrowing upper ridge still hanging on and no appreciable convection as of yet.