Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Copious moisture early this morning ahead of the trough over the WRN Gulf of Mexico (GOES-16 TPW) is expected to approach the CWA Today and contribute to isolated convection over the ERN CWA. Expect copious moisture/trough to generate isolated/scattered convection over the CWA Tuesday.
No precipitation is expected, but there will be an increase in westerly winds as the trough moves overhead. Gusty winds of up to 30 mph in the valleys, and up to 40 mph at the ridge tops are expected, especially in western Montana.
418 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry today with subsident upper ridging.
536 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 08z surface analysis had low pressure over south central MT with trough into south central WY. Quite moist air east of this trough with Td/s in the 60s. Finally, water vapour showed upper ridge over the four corners area with upper trough over BC/AB. Upper trough will zip into south central Canada by evening and into the Midwest overnight. Ahead of the front, low level thermal ridge peaks with MLCIN strong enough to preclude TSRA chances until late in the day. Storms may develop along the cold front in the far north/east by evening given MLCAPE/shear profiles. Breezy westerly component to wind expected ahead of cold front and northwest behind the cold front. Tuesday, much cooler and breezy weather expected given 850mb winds around 20kts and low level thermal trough.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. If diurnal convection develops as far south as highway 20 during the afternoon then isolated showers and storms will be possible in the highway 20 corridor through midnight. Late tonight forcing will increase again ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Otherwise, southwest flow will transport very warm and humid air into the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper high seen on this mornings water vapor imagery remains firm over the four corners area.
942 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 With high pressure really building over the Tennessee Valley region today, another mostly sunny and mainly dry day is expected. Based on current obs/trends, have tweaked temperatures up a degree or so -- with most valley locations reaching the lower 90s (and a few mid 90s possible). The upper level pattern will hold through much of the short term period, keeping the ridge anchored over the Rockies and Plains, a weak trough over New England and Hurricane Dorian moving along the east coast of Florida. The ridge will maintain a strong influence on the sensible weather pattern across the TN Valley, with mostly clear and dry conditions through at least mid week. The ridge will also keep Dorian and any impacts associated with the storm well east of the area.
Dry weather returns tonight with lows in the low 60s west to around 70 east. a cold front moves through the area during the day with breezy to windy northeast winds.
930 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Breaks in the cloud cover could enhance a weak cold front that will track southeast through the area late today into early this evening.
401 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Mostly dry and very warm conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area today; but, an isolated shower or two remain possible over the higher peaks of Glacier Park this afternoon. High pressure aloft then builds over the northern Rocky Mountains for continued warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National Park this afternoon, but mostly dry and warm conditions will prevail across the forecast area today through Tuesday afternoon.
An upper level disturbance and trough will move southeast out of Canada across northeast Montana into north Dakota. This system will sweep a cold front moves across the forecast area this afternoon into the evening hours. At this time, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity with the front as most of the energy associated with the trough will be north of our forecast area. Tuesday will see ridging building back over the forecast. Mostly sunny skies will continue but temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler in the lower to middle 80s.
A few storms did end up popping up yesterday afternoon with the upper trough overhead, and with the trough exiting to the northeast/weak northerly flow behind, there may be some showers and storms that develop mainly in the east today.
Mostly dry and very warm conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area today; but, an isolated shower or two remain possible over the higher peaks of Glacier Park this afternoon. High pressure aloft then builds over the northern Rocky Mountains for continued warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National Park this afternoon, but mostly dry and warm conditions will prevail across the forecast area today through Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry today with subsident upper ridging.
Daily thunderstorm chances will be greatest over the higher terrain, but isolated storms may drift into the valleys at times.
The overall H5 flow pattern will remain a ridge invof the Four Corners region, with a trof across the east U. High pressure will build south and into the area today, with the ridge axis still over our area tonight. Tuesday will be dry as high pressure moves south ahead of an approaching cold front, that will move from NW to SE across the area Tuesday night.
458 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Very little has changed in the pattern with high pressure still parked over the region. The result will be an increase in cloud cover across the region therefore highs should be slightly cooler on Tuesday.
Upper level ridging will generally prevail across the southern and central plains through 10 September, with only occasional slight weaknesses in this ridge. An upper level disturbance will pass into the northern plains today and into the upper Midwest Tuesday, helping to push a weak cold front into western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon.
The subtropical ridge over the western CONUS has built east into the Lower MS Valley, providing warm temperatures and (mostly) dry conditions across the region.
850 mb temps will rise tomorrow so with good mixing, highs will warm into the lower 90s for many areas.
Upper air and satellite data show west- northwesterly flow in place across the Plains, with high pressure centered over the Four Corners region. At the surface, we're sitting between high pressure over the Midwest/Great Lakes and a trough of low pressure extended through the High Plains. Flow is northwesterly across the region, with the center of the upper level high sliding a bit to the east. A surface cold front currently over the Nrn Rockies is expected to swing southeast with time, and models are in good agreement with the timing.
A large ridge remains centered over the Rockies this morning with our area on the western edge. A weakening upper low remains off the coast near the Olympic Peninsula. The low will remain stationary through this evening before it begins to move ashore and into British Columbia by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, perhaps a couple of degrees cooler in a few places.
Northwest winds finally kicked in this afternoon as weaker September sun gradually moxed things from west to east while a cold front moved through. TFJ The high along with an upper ridge building into Montana will keep Tuesday dry with cooler temperatures.
Building high pressure will return dry weather for tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front / trough will continue to push through the region this morning. Air behind this trough is only minimally cooler than the air ahead of it, so not much change in the sensible weather will be felt (low 60 dews instead of mid 60s). By tonight, high pressure will build into the region. Dry weather should return Tuesday as high pressure moves east across the region.
We are monitoring an area of low pressure in the central Gulf which should continue to move west towards Mexico. This area of low pressure has allowed for easterly flow to move higher moisture towards the coast. Showers and storms should be confined to the coast as this low moves west the next couple of days. Ridging aloft may be enough to keep storms from forming farther inland and support high temperatures in the upper 90s.
355 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 This afternoon-tonight: Showers/storms should continue to overspread our CWA as negatively titled trough progresses eastward, with main severe threat tending to be tied to MCS (hugging instability axis/theta-E gradient). Unidirectional flow and LLJ behind departing upper trough should support windy conditions, with clearing/mixing heights determining how high winds actually get.
An upper level disturbance and trough will move southeast out of Canada across northeast Montana into north Dakota this evening. This system will sweep a weak cold front moves across the forecast area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. At this time, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity with the front as most of the energy associated with the trough will be north of our forecast area. Tuesday will see ridging building back over the forecast. Mostly sunny skies will continue but temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler in the lower to middle 80s.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Upper-level ridge to prevail across the ArkLaTex through the short term period ending Monday night.
High pressure and NW flow aloft continue to control through Tuesday with warmer temps expected to peak in the upper 80s and low 90s in most spots. Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Upper ridging over the Rockies will maintain a NW flow into the Ohio Valley through the week.
Lows tonight will be in the lower and middle 70s, except for some upper 60s across the southwest zones. 79 /Tuesday through the Weekend/ A mid/upper ridge centered over the Rockies will expand east and southeast across the Southern Plains over the next few days and remain dominant across North and Central Texas through the end of the week.
203 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida. Upper level trough crossing the area this afternoon will move to the coast late this afternoon. Winds will remain northeast with high pressure to our north and Dorian off the south Florida coast. Ahead of the upper trough, PWAT values remain around 2.
1137 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Very little has changed in the pattern with high pressure still parked over the region. The result will be an increase in cloud cover across the region therefore highs should be slightly cooler on Tuesday.
Surface temperatures were warmer today and convective temperatures were reached sooner, and isolated thunderstorms have already begun. Cold front pushes through the area in the morning and should be out of the area or almost out of the area around 18z. Temperatures should be cooler due to early frontal passage.
Upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Colorado Rockies will keep the weather pattern quiet through tonight. Tuesday will be highlighted by a cold front moving through western Kansas.
With high pressure really building over the Tennessee Valley region today, another mostly sunny and mainly dry day is expected. Based on current obs/trends, have tweaked temperatures up a degree or so -- with most valley locations reaching the lower 90s (and a few mid 90s possible). The upper level pattern will hold through much of the short term period, keeping the ridge anchored over the Rockies and Plains, a weak trough over New England and Hurricane Dorian moving along the east coast of Florida. The ridge will maintain a strong influence on the sensible weather pattern across the TN Valley, with mostly clear and dry conditions through at least mid week. The ridge will also keep Dorian and any impacts associated with the storm well east of the area.
253 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A really nice Labor Day set up for the region with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints did climb up into the 70s causing it to be a little humid out there with heat indices reaching into the lower 90s. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s with heat indices pushing 100F over the KC Metro area tomorrow afternoon. It will feel much warmer than it has lately, so caution needs to be taken for any outdoor activities. This heat will be short-lived, as a cold front moves into the region from the north Tuesday evening.
Tuesday will be much cooler as surface winds become northwesterly behind today's system, with forecast high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.
With the ridge building in from the west, pop-up thunderstorms seem unlikely tomorrow afternoon and most of us will see generally clear skies, and temperatures will warm into the upper 90s with light southeasterly winds between 5 to 10 MPH. (Tuesday Night through Monday) Does not look like anything but hot and dry conditions this week with the upper level ridge remaining in in control. Some hope that the ridge will break down a little for the upcoming weekend, dropping highs back into the lot to mid 90s which is still above normal. Morning lows mainly in the lower 70s.
337 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 It's been a cloudy Labor Day across most of the region with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 80s early this afternoon. A strong upper-wave, currently over western North Dakota will continue to slide east-southeast into Minnesota tonight, dragging a strong cold front across our region by daybreak. The cold front moves over the region early Tuesday morning, exiting over northwest Iowa by mid-morning. Decent cold air advection and rapid pressure rises behind the frontal boundary will bring windy and cooler conditions. Highs will generally range from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
Much of the day has been dominated by cooler than anticipated conditions, with low to mid clouds in place. Dew points remain in the low to upper 60s to near 70 degrees, but the warmer air above the surface is leading to a mainly capped environment which will initially inhibit surface based convection. High pressure over MT will slowly shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the day, with gusty northwesterly winds anticipated between these systems.
A surface cold front will then be moving through behind the MCS Tuesday morning and could lead to some lingering showers and storms. In addition, breezy northwesterly winds will persist behind the front and will begin to usher in some cooler air.
The quiet conditions will continue overnight with mostly clear skies and lows near 70 degrees thanks to the upper ridge parked over the Rockies. A repeat day is in store for tomorrow across most of the area with temperatures expected to climb to the low to mid 90s across the area. A cold front will be making its way through the area tomorrow from late afternoon through the overnight hours. Low confidence in an isolated strong storm along the cold front tomorrow. Kept pops/wx out of the wx grids to be consistent with neighbors and to the low confidence in any storms.
Progged soundings off the Caprock show very little inhibition this afternoon and a few of the high-resolution models do develop a couple of small showers or weak t-storms this afternoon. /issued 331 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019/ The upper high currently situated over the Four Corners region will work its way eastward by mid week and settle over the FA. While the upper high will be situated nearly overhead into late week there could still be enough moisture available to allow for widely isolated shower/thunderstorm development across the region as possible weak waves rotate around the high. Models diverge heading into the weekend with the evolution of an upper trough across the West Coast.
242 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Forecast is on track with near recording-breaking temperatures across the area this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms expected over the higher terrain across the south.
Will continue to see moisture advection and warm air advection in advance of an associated cold front that is expected to be across northwest Iowa/southern Minnesota by early Tuesday morning. Could see some lingering activity through the morning hours in the far east/east central as the cold front drop southward through the state.
312 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The primary weather feature of note in the short term is a cold front that will move through the region late Tuesday night. Otherwise, we could see a repeat of the low clouds and fog late tonight that we saw early this morning.
1033 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Some moisture from an inverted trough axis across the Gulf of Mexico may bring a small chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly right over lower Acadiana and coastal areas, as northeast flow should keep the deeper moisture and the sea breeze from moving much inland. Warm yet tranquil conditions are ongoing across the local area with high pressure aloft stretched across the northern gulf coast. At the surface an inverted trof is moving west across the gulf with the local area being just on the fringes of this feature. High pressure is across much of the southeast states.
1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A couple days of late Summer heat will return before a modest cold front moves south across the area late Tuesday. A significant upper trof will drop southeast from south central Canada across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. The associated surface cold front looks to reach roughly just south of the I-70 corridor by mid-afternoon.
Mostly dry and very warm conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area today; but, an isolated shower or two remain possible over the higher peaks of Glacier Park this afternoon. High pressure aloft then builds over the northern Rocky Mountains for continued warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. Today begins under the influence of weak ridging. A trough presses southeastward into our area, weakening the ridge and tightening the height gradient resulting in developing gusty winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National Park this afternoon, but mostly dry and warm conditions will prevail across the forecast area today through Tuesday afternoon.
335 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Through Tuesday: A strong subtropical ridge will maintain large scale subsidence and a dry mid level airmass over the ArkLaMiss region as we go through early this week. The forecast will start off tomorrow night with Hurricane Dorian moving north just off the Florida coast as ridging remains centered across the Southern Plains and Atlantic with a well defined northern stream trough propagating through the Great Lakes region.
The arrival of a cold front will bring a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, especially north of I-72. However, expect much cooler conditions for mid week. Early afternoon surface map showed high pressure centered near Bloomington. Nice push of cooler air will follow Tuesday night's frontal passage, lingering for a couple days.
High temperatures Tuesday afternoon should be a degree or two warmer compared to today.
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The H5 ridge continues to dominate the local landscape, with subsident heating bringing near record temperatures.
350 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A building upper level ridge will block the forecast area from any tropical troubles. Meanwhile, this ridge will bring hot and dry conditions for a majority of the week. Rua An inverted trough is bringing some moisture increase into lower Acadiana with a few showers trying to develop in that area.
1119 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 08z surface analysis had low pressure over south central MT with trough into south central WY. Quite moist air east of this trough with Td/s in the 60s. Finally, water vapour showed upper ridge over the four corners area with upper trough over BC/AB. Upper trough will zip into south central Canada by evening and into the Midwest overnight. Ahead of the front, low level thermal ridge peaks with MLCIN strong enough to preclude TSRA chances until late in the day. Storms may develop along the cold front in the far north/east by evening given MLCAPE/shear profiles. Breezy westerly component to wind expected ahead of cold front and northwest behind the cold front. Tuesday, much cooler and breezy weather expected given 850mb winds around 20kts and low level thermal trough.
This is due to the expansion of the ridge eastward, centering over much of our region the rest of the week.
Dry southwest flow continues today, though temperatures may be slightly cooler.
Recent radar/satellite presentation indicates this activity is really struggling due to the strong subsidence from the ridge, and thus will keep PoPs below mentionable levels in the 5-10 percent range.
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Upper-level ridge of high pressure to maintain VFR conditions across area terminal sites through 03/18Z. /issued 1028 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019/ Upper-level ridge firmly established across the region to maintain dry conditions today. /Today through Tuesday/ Dominant upper level ridge out west will continue to build/expand eastward across much of the central and southern U. Overnight temps will drop back into the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies and light winds. Tuesday looks to be a near repeat of today with the center of the upper ridge edging a bit closer as it shifts eastward from the Four-Corners Region out across the Rockies and into the Plains by mid-week.
The latest mid/upper level analysis reveals high pressure expanding and shifting eastward over the NM/CO Rockies. A cumulus field has developed as temperatures approach the low 90s beneath axis of moderate 700mb theta-E values, but these should not see much vertical growth (although a few "turkey towers" can't be ruled out).
An upper trough will crossing Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight will push the chance of precip off to the eastern Dakotas overnight, with a dry frontal passage expected over our forecast area tonight. Tuesday will be dry and cooler with breezy to windy northwest winds on the plains of western South Dakota.
147 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 An upper ridge of high pressure is currently located over the Rocky Mountain region. The eastern edge of the ridge is located over the area. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s and will top out in the middle 80s to near 90 for highs today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Tuesday with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.
The 12Z DNR sounding showed the 700mb temperature is about 1C warmer than yesterday. In addition to this, temperatures are warmer than they were at this time yesterday.
High pressure aloft will remain centered near the Four Corners region through much of the week. The strong and rather broad upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region will show only a slow eastward drift through the end of the week. The remnant vorticity max moving through eastern Nevada this afternoon will turn to the northeast around the periphery of the upper ridge and cut across northwest Utah this evening.
656 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 An upper ridge of high pressure is currently located over the Rocky Mountain region. The eastern edge of the ridge is located over the area. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s and will top out in the middle 80s to near 90 for highs today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Tuesday with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 92 70 95 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 90 68 93 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 64 90 / 10 0 10 10.
That is not unusual on the west side of a tropical cyclone but an isolated tornado will be possible in more organized/stout rainbands.
1035 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida.