Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect another sunny day today with mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Latest surface analysis reveals expansive high pressure across the eastern half of the US with a 1025mb center over WV. 21/00Z upper air analysis shows robust ridging across much of the central CONUS with a 596dm dome of high pressure over the MS Valley. An upper level trough over Central Canada will attempt to break down the persistent omega block. In this attempt, a cold front will push into the area Wednesday afternoon. The storms and cold front will push through the region into the evening hours, before the front stalls just south of the KY border.
525 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over the Southern Plains. Subtropical moisture lifts north around the high across New Mexico and clips southeast Colorado. Last nights cold front ushered in cooler air for today. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80s across northeast Colorado, though upper 70s will be possible where thicker cloud cover will be, like Lincoln county.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
606 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An upper level trough will round the upper level ridge to the south of the area, which will bring temperatures back to something closer to normal for this time of year today. With drier air and light winds temperatures will be much cooler by Wednesday morning. High temperatures should be a bit warmer however with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula will interact with a region of low pressure over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and deep tropical moisture will surge north today. Otherwise, on the larger scale, mid-level ridging will remain centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, starting to shift slowly west through Wednesday. Have continued the inherited 30% pops for mainly the lower and mid RGV today. Although robust moisture will continue to the south on Wednesday, the effect of the mid level ridge shifting west will be to limit another round of significant tropical convection on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 70s and highs will range from the lower 90s east to a skosh above the century mark far west.
Again, storms will be dealt with via amendments given the low confidence.
(Rest of Today) High pressure generally remains stacked across much of the region this Tue morning, as temps begin to quickly rebound into the upper 70s/lower 80s from their earlier lows in the 60s. The upper ridge axis will begin to drift westward later today, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the Mid South region eastward into the Carolinas. Optimal solar heating will likewise allow highs later today to climb mainly into the lower/mid 90s for most spots.
A developing upper level low pressure system near Point Conception will draw a substantial influx of mid level moisture into southern California for late tonight and Wednesday with a chance for showers and slight chance for thunderstorms.
The area of low pressure has moved north and east of Arizona, causing the lighter winds, and warmer daytime temperatures. The movement of this weather system also allowed for the ridge over the Plains to shift back toward Arizona, bringing the monsoon moisture we've been mentioning in previous discussions. The additional moisture in the air will also assist with overnight temperatures not getting to quite the freezing levels we've seen recently. The ridge over the plains will grow closer to the Southwest Region and a closed low pressure system will form just off the Coast of California.
605 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today and tonight) Another seasonably hot day is expected as Oklahoma and north Texas remain on the western periphery of a ~596 dam mid-level ridge. As this occurs, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Plains. It appears the cold front will make it at least to southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle before becoming quasi-stationary.
A low pressure is being cutoff from the main flow, and will take residence along the California coast for Wednesday. This, in combination with Four Corners high pressure directing monsoonal flow up along the Sierra front, will increase diurnal shower/storm activity.
405 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An upper low over northeastern Montana will continue to progress eastward. As the low progress eastward the pressure gradient will increase resulting in windy conditions across the region today. However, the upper low is expected to progress through the region fairly quickly reducing the longevity of the winds. Wrap around precipiation is also forecast to tapper off by the late afternoon as the upper low progresses into Ontario. Temperatures will continue to increase as a low level thermal ridge crosses the plains.
/issued 218 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ The biggest problem today is whether the sub-tropical moisture plume gets shunted to the west/northwest by an upper level ridge that has begun to expand to the west. Since drying may not be the mechanism that limits shower chances, increasing subsidence from the westward expanding upper ridge may do it, but satellite imagery is not currently in a position to help with that analysis. A 594 dam sub-tropical ridge will continue to expand in longitude across the southern half of the CONUS this week as the highly amplified mid/upper-level trough dissipates, with the polar jet becoming displaced over the vicinity of the Medicine Line.
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Summary: A cold front will continue to move across the Northland today bringing relief from the hot temperatures, at least for western/northern portions of the Northland.
500 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The midlevel trough continues to race off to the northeast, ending rain chances across western WY during the short term period. That will translate to sfc temps reaching the low to mid 70s, and higher elevations temps around 60 for the first day of summer. Warmer temps will bring humidity levels back down below 15 percent for the southern half of the state.
507 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today) Water vapor imagery and streamflow analysis shows a large amplified upper level ridge along the MS Valley northward through southern Ontario. At the surface, a ridge axis was spread east- west from the Atlantic basin off the Carolinas into the lower MS Valley. The 5h/8h anticyclones shift a bit further west today. Strong subsidence and a capping inversion will suppress cumulus development, thus a full solar heating day is expected with high temperatures in the middle 90s for valley area and upper 80s to around 90 atop the higher plateaus and ridges.
552 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Southeast Michigan sits beneath a midlevel ridge axis that keeps hot and stable conditions over the region through the day. Higher magnitude warmth firmly entrenched today, as the region lands at the apex of large scale ridging emanating north of sprawling upper level high pressure over the south-central conus. Ridge axis settles eastward tonight as modest height falls associated with a stronger pv feature ejecting across western Ontario works into the elongated ridge periphery. Initial frontal passage lacks in meaningful cold air advection, with the slight downward trend in temperature Wednesday simply a result of eastward displacement of the main thermal ridge with a general decline in mean thicknesses.
336 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A warm frontal boundary will be in place today leading to a wide afternoon temperature spread for the region. This boundary will remain in place Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes bringing a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure then builds into the region for the remainder of the week.
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A trough will move east across the Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas Wednesday bringing scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level ridge centered over Arkansas this afternoon will slowly drift west tonight resulting in little change overnight. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to influence the area with mostly clear skies and light and variable winds overnight. The region will be sandwiched between a retreating 595dm H5 ridge to our west and a 567dm closed upper low to our northeast tomorrow morning.
/Issued 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ /Through Wednesday/ Hot and humid weather will continue this afternoon as subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge keeps quiet weather in place. Similar weather can be expected on Wednesday as the mid-level ridge becomes centered over the Lone Star State.
Current radar/satellite show two areas of activity: first, the typically active scattered showers across the lower Texas Gulf waters, and second, a few showers popping up along the Rio Grande near McAllen/Miller.
1102 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The midlevel trough continues to race off to the northeast, ending rain chances across western WY during the short term period. That will translate to sfc temps reaching the low to mid 70s, and higher elevations temps around 60 for the first day of summer. Warmer temps will bring humidity levels back down below 15 percent for the southern half of the state.
The low pressure system that brought several days of significant rainfall to some areas has moved into the Dakotas and southern Saskatchawan. Wednesday temperatures will rise into the lower 80s under a dry westerly flow aloft.
352 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front will then stall over or near the area late week into the weekend.
There's a broad spread of evidence in the high res guidance, with perhaps the best chances for gusty winds in the Upper Gila River valley. The monsoon ridge generally remains anchored to our east over the Central Plains, gradually drifting westward.
High pressure pushed into the area today along with much drier air.
1257 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front will then stall over or near the area late week into the weekend. Similar to the past few days, the low temperature forecast has been adjusted to favor the cooler of the 21/00z guidance with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the upper 70s along the beaches and in Downtown Charleston.
Currently, upper level low pushing east across south central Canada and into Ontario, keeping the Northern Plains region in a northwest flow regime. Wrap around moisture associated with the low along with daytime instability continues to result in a partly to mostly cloudy sky along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Plains.
Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes are expected this afternoon and tonight as a high pressure cell expands across the western North Atlantic and Florida Peninsula. The ridge likely will weaken by the end of the week, resulting in slackening breezes.
402 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
1200 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely with a Wednesday cold front. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight as the strong ridge remains in place. Warm advection with the strengthening ridges will hold overnight lows about 10 degrees above the averages.
High pressure continues to build over the next few days, with isolated dry thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across Nye county.
222 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Warm air will return on the backside of high pressure and ahead of a cold front bringing warm temperatures to the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. The cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon and evening bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A low pressure system is cut-off over central California is cut off from the main steering flow. A weak upper level trough extends through Idaho, although with plenty of dry air in place, it is not producing any significant weather. This trough will continue to pinch off tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm with overnight lows remaining well above freezing tonight in most locations.
Thankfully, although the low level moisture has increased considerably from yesterday, it is still on the less humid side of our standards with dewpoints only in the mid 50s in our northeast to upper 60s in the southwest. This heat is occurring due to a strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over MEM. This ridge will shift westward tomorrow with heights falling aloft over our region, but at the same time 850mb temps are expected to increase slightly. This activity will move southward towards us during the late afternoon and evening, but is expected to weaken and fall apart as crosses the state line due to the strength of the upper ridge overhead.
Rain chances tomorrow should be a little less if models do verify with the mid/upper ridge starting to build back across the region. Mid to upper level ridge continues to build over the Southern/Southeastern CONUS today. At the sfc, the high pressure centered over the Southeastern/Eastern CONUS will continue to provide warm and humid southeasterly winds into the region.
Upper level high pressure is centered over Oklahoma, resulting in southwesterly to westerly flow aloft over Nebraska. At the surface, the cold front will continue to track southeast away from Nebraska and high pressure will build in behind it. A stronger pressure gradient between high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley and a low over Wyoming should result in stronger winds compared to today. The limiting factor might be the presence of a surface boundary as the closest surface boundary will be a warm front in Kansas, which may remain too far south to influence weather in Nebraska.
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
This low-level southwesterly flow will cause downsloping and associated compressional warming, resulting in a warmer day and night, with high temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures Wednesday night in the 50s.
Slightly warmer tonight with temps ranging from the upper 50s in the northeast and southwest North Carolina Valleys to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere except for near Chattanooga. One change is that it will be slightly warmer Wednesday. Also the center of the upper ridge shifts farther west to the southern plains and the mean flow remains northerly. Tonight, broad low pressure lies over the Eastern U. with a weak cold front moving into the Ohio Valley overnight tonight and then slowly shifting south during the day Wednesday. Dew points today have risen into the lower to mid 60s south and are in the 50s central parts of the east Tennessee Valley. Here are the record highs for Wednesday and the year of occurrence: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 06-22 100(1988) 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) TD.
406 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Currently, the forecast area remains under high pressure and will continue to remain under high pressure through majority of the forecast period. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid- 90s for the entire forecast area.
This is being driven by an inverted trough and easterly low-level flow is ushering in a healthy dose of moisture into southeast Arizona. /issued 300 AM MST Tue Jun 21 2022/ As expected, with the trough out of the way the southern tier ridge downstream is elongating into the desert southwest, with mid and lower level flow backing around to the south and southeast. In addition, Yuma surface obs have regained a southerly wind component with KYUX vad wind profile backing around in the lowest levels. That will deepen over the next 36 hours and push additional moisture back into the lower deserts from the gulf as we see both southerly and easterly moisture engagement.
However, not as many areas are expected to reach a heat index of 105 due to both the lower max temps and slightly lower dewpoints. Another very weak embedded short wave tracking west around the southern periphery of a mid/upper level high pressure system, will interact with limited moisture to produce a few showers toward early Wednesday morning across the coastal waters and along the coast.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) The strong upper level high will remain over Oklahoma beyond Wednesday.
325 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Key Points: * Thunderstorms are expected tonight as cold front moves through the area.
but with situation over land being more diurnal than synoptically- driven have kept mention only near/on the lower Texas coast through midnight.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Hot and humid weather will continue this afternoon as subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge keeps quiet weather in place. Similar weather can be expected on Wednesday as the mid-level ridge becomes centered over the Lone Star State.
Previous Discussion: A few showers and thunderstorms will linger across northeast Montana early today on the back side of the departing low pressure system. The next few days after today will see dry weather and a warming trend while the next trough drops through British Columbia.
South to southeast winds will gust at all terminals except CNM, which has a northwest wind due to a stationary trough just to the east. Monsoonal flex will be pushed back westward as we see a strengthening and western expansion of the ridge across the Mississippi valley. By later this evening, precip will be off to the NW with a building layer of subsidence thanks to the ridge, so precip chances after today will be muted or heavily degraded beyond this forecast period. Temp wise, seasonal conditions anticipated with widespread 90s, 80s confined to the higher elevations and triple digits along the lower RGV.
(This evening through Wednesday) The main feature of note continues to be an upper level high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. The high is beginning to rotate to a more latitudinal orientation as it begins to retrograde off to the west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with light winds out of the south and mostly clear skies. Tomorrow will be a near carbon copy to today with highs once again in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening in the 850 mb thermal ridge expected.
Will opt to keep scattered POPs in for tomorrow but chances are the mid/upper ridge progged to build back into the region from the east will limit coverage as the day progresses.
A few locations have bumped up into the low 80s this afternoon. In addition to the low/mid- level warming happening Wednesday night, there is some low level moisture return moving up into the region from the south. When those two factors combine with the low level jet progged to form across the northern plains Wednesday night, the result is expected to be (iso'd/wdly sct'd) thunderstorm development somewhere between Fargo and Brookings in the far eastern Dakotas and far western Minnesota.
1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Summary: A cold front will continue to move across the Northland today bringing relief from the hot temperatures, at least for western/northern portions of the Northland.
A 597dm upper ridge will remain over the area resulting in highs well into the 90s this afternoon. We will see highs in the upper 90s and into the lower 100s later on this week across the entire area. A cold front will slide down into the region late Wednesday giving the northern portions of the forecast area a chance to see a shower or storm.
127 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure increases from the west through tonight.
Upper level high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will meander west a bit through Wednesday, with a closed low off the New England coast meandering south to off the DelMarVa. Guidance is advertising a tongue of drier air pushing southwest over the Southeast by the upper low and for the forecast area, areas west of the Tombigbee River. With temperatures a bit warmer and the pooled moisture closer to the coast lasting into Wednesday, areas closer to the coast may see more widespread Heat Index values above 108.
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Hot and humid weather is focused over the CWA today, as temperatures have reached the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
1126 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front could then advance into or stall near the region late week into the weekend. Similar to the past few days, the low temperature forecast has been adjusted to favor the cooler of the 21/00z guidance with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the upper 70s along the beaches and in Downtown Charleston.
Deep layer NE flow will continue through Wednesday between a ridge over the MS valley and low off the NE coast aloft, and around the southern periphery of surface ridging. The maritime influence and the fact that we'll be east of the deep layer ridge, will result in highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Wednesday.
Regional radar shows some elevated shower activity along an area of enhanced vorticity rotating around the high pressure, with this vort max stretching from northwestern IA southwest to southeastern CO.
159 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A cold front currently across Wisconsin and Iowa will settle southward into central Illinois tonight into Wednesday.
215 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over WY and MT, with a cold front to the northeast of the region. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the midweek period as high pressure slowly slides over and east of the area tonight and Wednesday.
337 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Currently, the forecast area remains under high pressure and will continue to remain under high pressure through majority of the forecast period. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid- 90s for the entire forecast area.
The drier airmass will continue today with upper level ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure dominating our weather. Low RH values again this afternoon, generally in the low to mid 20s. The only changes are that it will be slightly warmer today and fewer high clouds. Our ridge remains centered just to our west and the mean flow remains northerly. Afternoon RH values will range from the lower to mid 20s for most places. Slightly warmer tonight with temps ranging from near 60 to the mid 60s with clear skies.
A very weak cold front will begin approaching from the northwest and models prog low level moisture to increase ahead of it.
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure generally remains stacked across much of the region this Tue morning, as temps begin to quickly rebound into the upper 70s/lower 80s from their earlier lows in the 60s. The upper ridge axis will begin to drift westward later today, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the Mid South region eastward into the Carolinas. Optimal solar heating will likewise allow highs later today to climb mainly into the lower/mid 90s for most spots.
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An upper level trough will round the upper level ridge to the south of the area, which will bring temperatures back to something closer to normal for this time of year today. With drier air and light winds temperatures will be much cooler by Wednesday morning. High temperatures should be a bit warmer however with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Tonight and Wednesday: Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain firmly in place across the region through the period.
The latest RAP analysis shows a 595 dm ridge centered over the Mid- South. Dew point values have also crept back into the lower to middle 60s. Low temperatures will generally fall into the lower 70s. Dew points will pool ahead of this boundary, increasing into the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected (PoPs of 15-30%) from late morning through the afternoon ahead of the cold front.