Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will move through the area resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures today and Tuesday. Otherwise, high pressure will build back into the region during the latter half of the week allowing temperatures to rebound back near the seasonal normal. A large Pacific upper trough is well-defined on water vapor imagery this morning, with the primary circulation centered near Sacramento as of 09Z. Arizona and southern California are within a dry slot positioned along the basal portion of the trough, with 00Z soundings sampling between 0. Much weaker winds are forecast on Tuesday as the trough accelerates to the east. Highs today will be several degrees below normal and only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower deserts.
Only made minor updates to the temperature grids to account for obs this morning as some areas were running cooler than forecasted. Otherwise, high pressure overhead will bring another pleasant and dry day to the region.
However, with the lower half of the atmosphere remaining very dry, no precip is expected.
618 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
Quiet weather continues across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface. Today through the day Tuesday, upper ridging will remain across the area, with high pressure remaining in control at the surface. Some high clouds will spill across the ridge on Tuesday, bringing some partly cloudy conditions.
353 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The next trough is beginning to move ashore along northern California this morning, starting to push the central US ridge farther east. SW flow will continue to bring warmer weather to SE WY/western NE will continue the above normal temperatures for the region, reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The trough then barrels across the Intermountain West, generally tracking along the WY/CO border during the day Tuesday. Right now, the temperatures below freezing may not fully arrive until after sunrise Tuesday. This would limit the best accumulating snow to the higher elevations of the northern Laramie Range. Gradients in the region will be much looser than the previous winter storm, but some gusty northwest winds are still a concern as the cold air comes rushing in behind the trough.
/issued 325 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ Three am temperatures are running near to slightly warmer than they were 24 hours under virtually the same conditions.
We'll begin the week with cooler temperatures and breezy conditions as a system brushes by to our north. High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the second half of the week, with continued dry conditions into the weekend. A low pressure system currently near northern California will push across the Great Basin north of our area over the next 36 hours.
Not much to update for today as high pressure builds across the region, maintaining dry conditions. Afternoon temps will climb into the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland.
529 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
312 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Temperatures turn cooler today through Tuesday, as a passing cold front causes a switch to northerly winds.
943 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
Afterward, VFR will prevail through the vast majority of the period as high pressure dominates. Discussion: The synoptic pattern today is highlight by omega shaped flow with a ridge axis over the Plains while two H5 cyclones prevail on the west/east coasts. At the surface, high pressure will be centered nearly overhead thanks to confluent flow aloft. This high pressure favors deep dry profiles and therefore clear skies this morning favoring ample radiational cooling and possible frost in the sheltered areas of northeast TN and southwest VA/NC where a frost advisory remains in effect. Tonight conditions will be much the same, however with guidance favoring slightly warmer temperatures for lows, thus think frost potential will remain isolated at best.
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Fantastic fall weather continues with sunny skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low 70s today.
626 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure continues to provide clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will gradually shift east from the Arklatex into the Tennessee River Valley. This high will keep skies clear through today and then some high clouds will move into the region tonight. With southerly winds continuing to bring slightly more moisture into the region tonight than this morning, low temperatures will likely range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Tuesday, high pressure continues to drift east into the Carolinas.
601 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
with high pressure presiding through the low levels, as upper ridging continues to slowly build over the region from the west. Low dewpoints will also contribute to a nearly 30 degree diurnal change, with temperatures peaking in the low 70s for most locations. Quiet weather continues across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface. Today through the day Tuesday, upper ridging will remain across the area, with high pressure remaining in control at the surface. Some high clouds will spill across the ridge on Tuesday, bringing some partly cloudy conditions.
High pressure now centered just south of the forecast area will shift only very slowly eastward towards the southeastern states through Tuesday night. A weak mid level short wave and associated cold front will then approach and move through the region Wed/Wed night time frame.
An area of low pressure along the West Coast will move across The Great Basin Monday and Tuesday. This will bring gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A progressive and dynamic trough is moving across N. This trough will close off with the center of the low passing though central Nevada today, and into Utah this evening. This will engender a very tight pressure gradient across northern Arizona, and bring strong winds to the area - especially over the high country and areas just downwind (east) of the highest topography. The aforementioned trough will pass to our east by early Tuesday, and allow for the formation of a broad ridge of high pressure to settle over the southwest through the rest of the week.
Temperatures turn cooler today through Tuesday, as a passing cold front causes a switch to northerly winds.
It was another crisp fall morning across the region as many places dipped into the low to mid 40s this morning.
Cooler Wed night into Sat. Typically cold river valleys over the east saw lows in the low 30s the last couple of days. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
348 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Impacts in the short term will be minimal, though temps much cooler, with a dry cold frontal passage expected to bring much cooler weather to the area tomorrow. Cloudy and much cooler than today with highs 20 to 30 degrees cooler Tuesday, in the 40s and 50s.
Skies across the archipelago range from mostly sunny over the upper Keys to partly cloudy in the lower Keys. Mean sea level pressures have increased 1-2 millibars during the last 24 hours, indicative of the increasing influence of a high pressure cell currently centered over the Tennessee Valley. The ridge supports a lower-tropospheric anticyclone centered over the Tennessee Valley. During the next few days, the ridge and associated low-level anticyclone will shift gradually eastward.
348 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
/Today/ The region remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the sfc, keeping our fcst dry and very mild and below-normal temperatures in place through today. /Today through Tuesday/ For the start of this workweek, dry conditions continue to be the main story, with an upper level ridge in place over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned upper level ridge will remain in control through midweek as it gradually drifts eastward across the Great Lakes region.
A weather system passing north of the area will continue to bring some breezy conditions and cooler temperatures.
By Tuesday morning, a cold front will lead to a wind shift, from southerly to northeasterly, and bring in mid to low cloud cover.
Lows will be a degree or two warmer than we saw this morning thanks to the higher dewpoints, but did undercut the NBM a bit since it has been a tad on the warm side, and went closer to the NBM 25th percentile for low temps.
Pleasant rest of the afternoon with temps in the low 80s, dropping into the upper 70s this evening. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for most locations, as normally cooler inland/rural spots drop into the low 60s, except for the barrier islands of the Space/Treasure Coasts where it will be in the low 70s due to persistent east wind.
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure and cooler weather triumphs through midweek.
253 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The short term will remain quiet with a high pressure ridge in place across the SE. Temperatures will largely stay around normal for this time of year with highs today in the low 70s. Temperatures will likely begin to climb back into the lower 80s in south and central Georgia beginning to tomorrow.
149 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 VFR conditions will hold through the taf forecast as high pressure remains in control. Winds out of the northwest today will weak tonight while backing to the southwest as the ridge axis passes east. Early week period defined by the steady increase in the geopotential height field, responding to a combination of exiting mean troughing and inbound higher amplitude ridging currently fixated across the Mississippi River Valley. Remnant confluent mid level northwest flow as this process unfolds sustains a high degree of stability atop encroaching surface ridging today. Dry and stable conditions still prevail Tuesday, as upper ridging anchors overhead and a backing/southwesterly low level gradient lacks in meaningful moisture advection at this stage.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Upper ridge axis stretching from E TX up through the Great Lakes region. Upper low currently over NV will continue ewd through Tuesday, bringing a cold front into the Southern Plains.
249 PM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The dry cold front is now beginning to push through the region today, just as high temperatures reach into the lower 70s. The associated low pressure system is so far removed from our area, that any rain showers will barely reach northward into southern Montana. A cold front moves through the region tonight with shifting winds accompanying the front.
1122 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Upper ridge axis has shifted to our east, leaving the northern plains in southwest flow, as the trough moves ashore. Meanwhile, the west coast trough will develop into a closed low as it swings eastward and approaches our area. Tonight, the cold front will begin crossing the CWA. The 00Z deterministic models have come into better agreement on the 700 mb low track, with the low over the NE panhandle Tues morning, and moving along the NE/SD border through Wed. Northerly winds will be gusty behind the cold front Tuesday, especially just east of the Black Hills, but not terribly strong. Overall, the forecast through the end of the week looks dry, becoming gradually warmer.
1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure continues to provide clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will gradually shift east from the Arklatex into the Tennessee River Valley. This high will keep skies clear through today and then some high clouds will move into the region tonight. With southerly winds continuing to bring slightly more moisture into the region tonight than this morning, low temperatures will likely range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Tuesday, high pressure continues to drift east into the Carolinas.
Return flow may get a little gusty this afternoon in response to leeside troughing ahead of a storm system moving through the central Rockies.
208 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure and cooler weather triumphs through midweek.
Given this, the odds of measurable precipitation will be on the low side, generally no higher than 10-15%. /issued 339 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area.
A comfortable fall day on tap for today, with a dry cold front tonight. A cold front moves through the region today and tonight, with an upper low passing south of the region tomorrow. Temperatures today will still be well above seasonal averages, but cooler than they were over the weekend.
1259 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Fantastic fall weather continues with sunny skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low 70s today.
140 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will build across the region this week, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to perhaps middle 70s again with lows tonight in the 40s. Leaned towards the lower end of guidance tonight as the NBM remains too warm due to its nightly warm bias. Overall the upper air pattern is becoming more fall-like with more progressive and stronger jet penetrations into the lower 48.
(This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures will warm a little tomorrow compared to today as we continue with the southerly flow bringing warmer air into the area.
337 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 This afternoon, we are seeing gusty south winds and a slight increase in upper level clouds as the upper ridge shifts to our east. This will force a cold front into the area by evening, but ahead of this we will see another warm and breezy day. Of additional concern is the westerly wind shift as the cold front moves into the area in the late afternoon/evening. Some light rain could also develop later overnight over northern parts of the area as the upper low ejects out over Nebraska.
1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 South winds steadily increasing and temps have climbed into the low 60s north and low 70s south. The increased gradient and increasing H850 winds will increase mixing today, especially over the southern Red River Valley where gusts into the low 30 mph range are possible. A cold front then moves across the area late tonight into tomorrow, with winds shifting to the north overnight for eastern North Dakota and Tuesday morning in northwest Minnesota.
1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as the low-levels remain dry across the area. A shallow short wave trough is moving across Texas this morning, but the only effect of this feature is some high cloudiness.
308 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Skies are clear across the Upper Midwest as the region sits on the northwest side of high pressure centered over the western half of Tennessee. Temperatures at 2 PM were in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. Tranquil weather continues across the region as high pressure sits to our southeast. An amplified 500 MB pattern continues through the short term with broad ridging across the Midwest. The ridge axis is along a line from eastern Michigan southwestward through Arkansas.
1245 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will build across the region this week, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
310 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Short Term (Today through Tuesday): High pressure builds back in at the surface in wake of the front permitting a breezy northerly to northeasterly flow to persist. The high pressure settles eastward on Tuesday keeping the moisture to the south and allowing for the wind to become increasingly easterly.
115 PM MST Mon Oct 18 2021 A cold front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures and locally breezy conditions. High pressure will build back into the region during the latter half of the week allowing temperatures to rebound back near the seasonal normal. Otherwise, a low level cold front has nearly stalled through central Arizona entraining just enough moisture at the top of the boundary layer to produce fair weather cumulus. Low amplitude ridging will return to the SW Conus during the middle and end of the week with excellent model agreement of H5 heights hovering in a 585-588dm range.
A cold front will sweep through tuesday night bringing a few showers and temperatures closer to average for the end of the week. Today: Mainly quiet weather will continue this afternoon as upper level ridging builds into the area. At the surface, high pressure will continue to push east and a tightening pressure gradient will shift in.
Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as an upper ridge slides eastward across the region. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, with highs reaching the lower 80s across most of the forecast area.
An area of low pressure along the West Coast will move across The Great Basin through Tuesday. This will bring gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures through Tuesday. The low pressure system is seen over central and western Nevada this afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool due to the trough, associated with the low, tonight and tomorrow.
A pleasant morning across the Mid-South as a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to be in the lower to perhaps middle 70s this afternoon. /issued 325 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ Three am temperatures are running near to slightly warmer than they were 24 hours under virtually the same conditions.
It was another chilly morning across Middle Tennessee with many places in our southern and eastern counties dropping into the low to mid 30s. Earlier river and valley fog across the area has dissipated per visible satellite, and expecting a sunny, warmer day today with highs in the mid 60s on the Plateau and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. VFR with clear skies and light winds will continue through the rest of the day with high pressure directly over Middle Tennessee.
356 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Tonight and Tuesday: Ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant through the period resulting in dry weather with cooler than normal temperatures again tonight followed by warmer temperatures topping out near normal Tuesday. Under mostly clear skies and a light wind, radiational cooling of our cool dry airmass will help temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 40s again.
1239 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
Low temperatures should reach the lower 40s tonight with some isolated cold spots in the upper 30s possible. High temperatures should be similar to today or slightly warmer with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
High pressure currently extending from eastern Wisconsin into western portions of the Great Lakes will move slowly across the region tonight. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge axis will approach from the west. Winds aloft increase but surface winds are expected to be decoupled due to the center of the upper level ridge remaining just to our west. This setup should lead to lows mainly in the low and mid 40s except for the mid and upper 30s in low lying spots. A large area of high pressure and associated dry air centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to ridge into the Great Lakes region, providing sunshine and above normal temperatures to the forecast area. This high pressure will be surrounded by systems to the west, east, and north.
Primary topic of interest near our forecast area today is the dryness of the surface air mass indicated by low relative humidities (25-35%) from dewpoint temperatures in the low 40s.
Discussion: The short term period will begin with an upper level ridge axis extending up through the Mississippi river valley and into southern portions of central Canada. Additionally, over the eastern and western portions of the CONUS, troughing will act to create an omega- like upper level pattern over the CONUS as a whole. Closer to home, upper level flow will be from the northwest as eastern TN will be located near the transition zone of the trough/ridge pattern.
It was another chilly morning across Middle Tennessee with many places in our southern and eastern counties dropping into the low to mid 30s. Earlier river and valley fog across the area has dissipated per visible satellite, and expecting a sunny, warmer day today with highs in the mid 60s on the Plateau and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
Cloud cover should begin to increase a bit tomorrow with high temp- eratures in the lower 80s. But of note with the near term models today, there does seem to be a trend of keeping the highest POPs/lift well to our east with con- ditions remaining dry here.
334 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
We're a bit warmer than yesterday as the previous continental polar airmass begins to modify over the region following chilly overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Good radiational cooling can be expected once again overnight tonight, but a touch warmer in the low to mid 40s.
The main focus for precipitation is the southeastern corner, where 1 to 6 inches are possible, with highest amounts in the higher elevations. Much of it will be rain at the lower elevations, such as Soda Springs. The period of northerly flow quickly transitions to westerly for Wed, which prevents any real significant deep freeze for Tue night when skies are clear as high pressure returns.
250 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 (Issued 249 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: Tonight will be another clear and calm night thanks to high pressure overhead. Winds will pick up quickly on Tuesday out of the southwest as low pressure approaches from the Plains. High temperatures Tuesday will be similar or just a notch warmer than the highs today, in the lower 70s.
The cloud cover will shift off to the east tonight as drier southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region well south and east of an upper low traversing the Great Basin. The upper low will propagate to the east-northeast on Tuesday, emerging over the High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming late in the day.
1027 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Fantastic fall weather continues with sunny skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low 70s today.
This broad stretch of benign weather is in place downstream of the ridge axis within a slowly progressive, highly amplified large scale upper air pattern. Subsidence associated with the ridge is powering clear sky and full sun in SE MI giving traction to a new round of above normal temperatures starting with highs mainly in the mid 60s this afternoon. These slightly warmer temperatures provide some buffer for lows tonight along with an ever so slight uptick in wind after midnight. High pressure remains firmly in control of dry weather Tuesday while drifting slightly eastward. The resulting increase of SW gradient wind accelerates the warming trend as temperatures warm to highs in the lower 70s. High clouds thicken and lower toward mid levels during the night as the upper level low moves into the Plains while drawing in a hybrid Pacific/Gulf moisture plume.