Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By late morning, we should see improving sky conditions as low level ridging and northwesterly flow aloft filters in drier air. Model soundings show that the low level inversion will stick around for most of the day, which will help prevent much of the winds aloft from mixing down to the sfc. Expect wind gusts to be between 15- 25mph, with the higher gusts across the Bluegrass where slightly better mixing is possible. continues to exert its influence over the lower Ohio Valley.
Most observation sites were reporting temperatures in the lower 50s and upper 40s. Temperatures were cooler behind a cold front draped across southern South Dakota and northern Iowa. Ponderings Regarding Today's Temperature Forecast: The overall weather pattern favoring warmth today, ridging aloft, warm lower levels (850 mb temps near 15 C) due to subsidence and downsloping flow, and sufficient diurnal heating remains in the forecast. This said, the aforementioned cold front has added complications to today's high temperature outlook. Model guidance has been trending towards an initial frontal passage Friday morning, with a secondary push of cooler air Friday night. The airmass with the initial front looks to be modified by downsloping across the High Plains.
Today/Friday: Warm will be the word of the day - already starting out well above normal with temperatures early this morning in the lower 50s in most locations (the average high today is 47). Despite a weak frontal boundary sliding southward through the CWA during the day Friday, with slightly cooler air filtering in and sfc/H85 winds veering out of the north, the well above normal readings continue.
The Carolina Clipper and the lower heights trailing to its southwest have eroded the western flank of the Bermuda High. The difference between the high and low tide will reach nearly 3 feet for portions of the Lower Keys, in conjunction with peak water levels similar to the King Tides earlier this month. Moored vessels should allow for more slack in their spring lines, and boaters should plan for less clearance under fixed bridges. A weak ridge of high pressure will straddle Florida over the next several days.
High pressure for the end of the work week and weekend.
A beautiful afternoon ongoing across the area today as highs have climbed into the lower to mid 60s and winds have remained fairly light. Temperatures will climb even higher tomorrow as a 850 mb ridge builds over the region. Slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s for Friday as the ridge shifts off to the east and weak frontal boundary moves through, but still well above normal temperatures for early December.
Aloft, we have a flat ridge over the western U. With a warm start of the day (temperatures at 2 AM were close to normal highs), and an abnormally warm air mass in place advecting even warmer air into the area, and ensemble data all pointing to near record temperatures today over the area, we have gone with a blend of 90th percentile model certainty and bias corrected CONSRAW for todays temperatures which brings us into the mid 70s across the board. There will be a bit more cloud cover as a frontal system and low pressure system approach from west.
A very warm day is on the way today with a narrow upper level high pressure ridge overhead and weak surface pressure falls leading to slightly downslope enhanced south to southwest flow. This should produce high temperatures today well into the 70s on the Caprock and into the lower 80s over the Rolling Plains, 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for early December. Tonight will see gradual upper level height falls as a a weak upper trough over northern Mexico and the American Southwest lifts into the region. Quasi zonal flow will persist into the weekend across the northern states while a ridge separating the polar jet from a low off the coast of Baja.
There is some leftover low level moisture with dewpoints in the lower 50s in some parts. The ridge over the west is quite strong with 500 mb geopotential heights from the Great Basin into the Central Rockies in the 99th percentile of climatology.
High pressure will bring dry conditions through this weekend.
150 AM MST Thu Dec 2 2021 Broad, flat upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. A backdoor cold front is pushing into northeastern portions of the CWA, behind which winds are northerly and temperatures are in the 40s. Tonight, another cold front will cross our region, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures for Friday (highs in the 40s).
Similar to the last few nights the greatest concentration of fog will be in the lower Snake Plain from the Boise metro west to Ontario/Vale.
At the surface, we will continue to have a SW flow as a low pressure system tracks into New England, and weak high pressure to the south and west.
Around here, a ridge of high pressure will nudge from the southern Plains toward the southeast United States. Under the ridge, climatological winter will start off feeling like spring. As the period ends, a cold front will be on our doorstep to the north.
A cold front moves through the forecast area Thursday night. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday and Friday night.
/Updated at 0720 PM CST Wed Dec 01 2021/ /Showers clip NE Alabama this evening; fair weather beyond/ At 01:30z/7:30p, water vapor imagery and H5 analysis showed a trough axis moving through the region. As the trough moves eastward tonight, we will start to get involved within a broadening H5 ridge centered toward our west. The air mass will cool into the 40s tonight before warming into the lower 70s for much of the region Thursday afternoon.
244 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Low clouds and fog associated with the shallow near surface inversion are slowly but steadily improving this morning as warm advection and low level flow begins to ramp up, although the last of the low clouds and fog may linger until just after daybreak in some spots before better mixing begins at the surface. After the low cloud dissipates, expect some mid and high cloud associated with a northwesterly upper level jet streak and upper level wave moving through the Great Lakes today.
1028 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 Increased rain chances overnight near and northeast of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN as light rain showers continue to move southeast through the area. Question becomes how much, if any, of this higher momentum flow can make it to the surface. A handful of high-res models suggest at least pockets of gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with ensemble probabilities highlighting the Buffalo Ridge area being the most favorable. Southwest to northeast oriented thermal gradient sets up again across the immediate area for Thursday with locations east of the Buffalo Ridge perhaps topping out closer to 50 and locations nearing the MO River closer to 70.
Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected with a Thursday cold front. Damp and relatively mild conditions can be expected overnight, and until the passage of a Thursday cold front. More developed low pressure will drag a cold front across the Upr OH Valley on Thursday. Dry weather should continue Friday night as high pressure builds across the region.
An upper level trough is exiting the area at the moment. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 44 71 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 44 69 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 43 67 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 41 65 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 10.
525 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected today with a crossing cold front.
354 AM MST Thu Dec 2 2021 Broad, flat upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. A backdoor cold front is pushing into northeastern portions of the CWA, behind which winds are northerly and temperatures are in the 40s. Tonight, another cold front will cross our region, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures for Friday (highs in the 40s).
High pressure remains the main topic across the area for the next couple of days as well as the Spring like temperatures. As the high pressure moves a touch to the east on Thursday, an inverted trough should set up through our southeastern counties.
The cloud cover from these showers are likely all we are to see this morning, especially across the lower Keys. Otherwise, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across to the western North Atlantic. Said aforementioned area of high pressure will continue to dominate across the region today, keeping conditions dry and winds generally from the north and northeast.
Ample sunshine and moderate southwest winds will push temperatures into the lower 70s by this afternoon.
Will be transitioning to NW flow aloft with broad sfc ridging so we have another period without pops. Temps continue to be unseasonably warm with highs in the low 70s across much of the area today and some mid 70s for central GA, then with flow becoming more zonal for Friday, can expect temps a few degrees even higher.
347 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures along with chances for precipitation today through this evening. Currently, west/northwest flow aloft persists across the Northern Plains with a broad upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a long wave trough over the eastern tier of the country. We do lose ice aloft late this afternoon and during the evening hours across the Turtle Mtn region, so will add a mention of light freezing rain there. Overall mostly cloudy today with a tight temperature gradient in place, with highs ranging from the lower 30s northeast to lower 60s southwest.
445 AM MST Thu Dec 2 2021 The short-term forecast mostly reflects a persistence pattern for today, as the region remains under a broad ridge of high pressure. There will be some slight warming aloft, and given the lower forecast dewpoints relative to yesterday, opted to nudge temperatures upward a degree or two closer to the upper percentiles of the forecast guidance. A cold front pushes south across the area late tonight and Friday morning. This will usher in somewhat cooler air with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, still well above normal.
A cold front is then expected to sink southward into the region Friday night.
A strong high pressure system will keep the weather quiet across northern and central Nevada. This means a chance for rain and snow showers and much cooler temperatures. The weather pattern remains rather benign due to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region.
403 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Today will continue to feel unusually warm for December, but will be a solid 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in most locations, with highs in the upper 30s to the NE and upper 40s in the SW. In addition, P-type could be of concern due to low-level and surface temperatures hovering near freezing. Freezing rain is not expected, but freezing drizzle and light snow could cause for slick roads overnight, particularly in our WI counties.
A weak cold front has worked into the east and with less wind, the east has cooled into the 30s.
/Issued 306 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021/ High temperatures should be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. 850 mb temps are about 1 to 2 degrees warmer than yesterday and we should have a more favorable downslope wind. On Friday, a cold front moves south through the Panhandles, so highs will be coolest in the northwest with the warmest readings in the southeast where the cold front will move through last.
641 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected today with a crossing cold front.
Low-level temperatures will be warmer today and expect highs today to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
High pressure remains in place across the region. A cold front is expected to cross into northern Utah, which may ventilate the northern valleys and reduce haze.
301 AM MST Thu Dec 2 2021 The short-term forecast mostly reflects a persistence pattern for today, as the region remains under a broad ridge of high pressure. There will be some slight warming aloft, and given the lower forecast dewpoints relative to yesterday, opted to nudge temperatures upward a degree or two closer to the upper percentiles of the forecast guidance. A cold front pushes south across the area late tonight and Friday morning. This will usher in somewhat cooler air with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, still well above normal.
618 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Today will continue to feel unusually warm for December, but will be a solid 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in most locations, with highs in the upper 30s to the NE and upper 40s in the SW. In addition, P-type could be of concern due to low-level and surface temperatures hovering near freezing. Freezing rain is not expected, but freezing drizzle and light snow could cause for slick roads overnight, particularly in our WI counties.
331 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 High pressure centered over the northern Gulf Coast this morning. Aloft, there was a longwave trough along the east coast and a ridge over the Great Basin.
540 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging will remain over the area through tonight.
Surface temps anywhere from the upper 20s to lower 30s, thus with warm air aloft cannot rule out a rain/freezing rain mix for a few hours early this morning. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures along with chances for precipitation today through this evening. Currently, west/northwest flow aloft persists across the Northern Plains with a broad upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a long wave trough over the eastern tier of the country. We do lose ice aloft late this afternoon and during the evening hours across the Turtle Mtn region, so will add a mention of light freezing rain there. Overall mostly cloudy today with a tight temperature gradient in place, with highs ranging from the lower 30s northeast to lower 60s southwest.
(Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging will remain over the area through tonight.
This is driven by the upper ridge over the southwestern US gradually building and leading to still increasing heights over our area, which is on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Low clouds and fog associated with the shallow near surface inversion are slowly but steadily improving this morning as warm advection and low level flow begins to ramp up, although the last of the low clouds and fog may linger until just after daybreak in some spots before better mixing begins at the surface. After the low cloud dissipates, expect some mid and high cloud associated with a northwesterly upper level jet streak and upper level wave moving through the Great Lakes today.
on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge offshore the Pacific Coast. on the eastern periphery of a broad/weak lee trough. With little or no thermal advection and little if any cloud cover (aside from transient cirrus), expect highs similar-to yesterday -- albeit several degrees warmer. Fri-Fri night: Pressure rises assoc/w subsidence in the wake of a potent upper level low. the leading edge of which will manifest as an abrupt northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. Modest cold advection is anticipated in the wake of the front, with H85 temps decreasing from ~18C to ~10C -- yielding noticeably cooler (albeit still above-normal) daytime highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower- mid 60s. Sat-Sat night: Expect highs generally cooler than Fri (ranging from 50-60F).
358 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 A back door cold front will push through most of the CWA today, bringing cooler temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 40s, in western MN, to the mid 60s, in south central SD.
A back door cold front will push through most of the CWA today, bringing cooler temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 40s, in western MN, to the mid 60s, in south central SD.
200 AM PST Thu Dec 2 2021 Patchy fog is possible in the nights and mornings until at least Friday as high pressure aloft continues. Another warm day occurred throughout much of the area, as highs reached into the 70s for much of the lower elevations yesterday. Even some Sierra Nevada foothill locations, such as Mariposa and Oakhurst, reported daytime highs into the lower 80s. This is due to a strong ridge of high pressure that remains in control and will likely persist until Friday. A dry upper-level low is forecast to move into southern California on Friday, while another low pressure system remains offshore and moves south toward Baja California over the weekend. These upper-level lows will provide little effect on our weather, although the upper-level ridge of high pressure will retrograde off the West Coast and moderate temperatures.
918 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected today with a crossing cold front.
Otherwise, temperatures are already quite mild for this time of the morning and range from the low 40s to low 50s. A big warmup is expected today with highs soaring well into the 60s to low 70s across the forecast area thanks to an upper level ridge shifting eastward along the Gulf Coast. Yet another warm, dry day is expected for Friday, although 850mb temps will be slightly cooler, so went with highs near or slightly below what we will see today.
The higher end of this range will occur across areas east of the Divide, where highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees will occur again. A dry cold front will drop south east of the Divide through the day Friday, cooling temperatures several degrees. Winds will not be as strong either, as a result of the cold front.
Temperatures tomorrow will again be above normal, but slightly cooler than we got today due to weakened WAA, with highs from the low 50s to low 60s.
(This evening through Friday) It certainly does not feel like December today across west central Texas, as temperatures have soared into the lower to mid 80s across much of the area. Overnight lows will remain on the mild side, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the Big Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. A few of the high res models do generate some scattered showers across our southeastern counties as this disturbance skirts by.
12z DDC sounding revealed an intense inversion just above the surface, with temperatures in the lower 70s about 1500 ft above the ground. But after midnight through sunrise, surface temperatures will remain well above normal and above freezing at most locations. The next in the parade of dry cold fronts will be entering the northwest zones at sunrise Friday, and proceed southward during the daylight hours.
Clear and cool conditions continue tonight as high pressure ridge over the North Gulf Coast sinks slightly further southward into the Gulf of Mexico and the light westerly steering flow will inject enough moisture into the cooling boundary layer over inland NE FL and expect areas of dense fog to develop along the NE Gulf Coast late tonight and slowly advect inland towards morning, potentially reaching the US301 and I-10 corridors just to the Southwest of the Jacksonville metro area and Dense Fog Advisories may be required.
936 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 High pressure parked over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dominate the weather across much of the southeast today. With just some passing high clouds this morning and abundant sunshine much of the day, expect highs to top out a tad warmer than previously thought. The clear/calm conditions this evening underneath the ridge will set the stage for a night of good radiational cooling as temperatures drop back into the 40s overnight. After the fog dissipates, we're looking at another very warm day with near record high temperatures once again in the low to mid 70s (with plenty of sunshine to enjoy). Mid to high clouds will increase Friday evening into Friday night as an area of low pressure begins to lift NE from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
High pressure currently in the Gulf of Mexico is controlling our weather pattern. High pressure will slowly cross the state and head out into the Atlantic and we will see a slow warm up of temperatures day to day.
Highs will again be much warmer than normal today - by around 20 to 30 degrees.
High pressure will allow for good radiational cooling overnight, allowing for temperatures to fall into the upper 30s across the Bluegrass and southern Indiana and into the lower 40s for the Louisville metro and areas south of the BG/WK Parkways. Tomorrow, the remnants of a cold front descending from the upper Midwest will settle across the CWA before lifting back to the north as a warm front tomorrow afternoon. As a result of the previously mentioned cold/warm front, temperatures will be warmer across south central Kentucky with highs pushing 70 degrees once again while north central Kentucky and southern Indiana will only reach the low-to-mid 60s, still well above normal for this time of year.
Dry and mild conditions continue through the near term as upper level ridging continues to build in from the west. At the surface, high pressure dominates over the Northern Gulf Coast, allowing winds to remain light and variable to even calm at times. Temperatures in the near term will be mild with highs in the low to mid 70s.
251 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected this evening with a crossing cold front.
The short-term forecast mostly reflects a persistence pattern for today, as the region remains under a broad ridge of high pressure. There will be some slight warming aloft, and given the lower forecast dewpoints relative to yesterday, opted to nudge temperatures upward a degree or two closer to the upper percentiles of the forecast guidance. A cold front pushes south across the area late tonight and Friday morning. This will usher in somewhat cooler air with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, still well above normal.
Forecast soundings show the clouds losing ice at times, so there could be a little drizzle or freezing drizzle, but the blend shows the probability of. If you are out and about later tonight be aware that there could be some slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses as lows tonight fall to to around 30 degrees north and east of the Twin Cities.
High pressure parked over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dominate the weather across much of the southeast today. With just some passing high clouds this morning and abundant sunshine much of the day, expect highs to top out a tad warmer than previously thought. The clear/calm conditions this evening underneath the ridge will set the stage for a night of good radiational cooling as temperatures drop back into the 40s overnight. After the fog dissipates, we're looking at another very warm day with near record high temperatures once again in the low to mid 70s (with plenty of sunshine to enjoy). Mid to high clouds will increase Friday evening into Friday night as an area of low pressure begins to lift NE from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
The low-level air mass is very stable, with multiple subsidence inversions on this morning's balloon sounding.
But, with the synoptic setup ill-defined/messy, hence the limiting factors feeding into the low PoPs/low accums. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sun which moves into the Great Lakes region 12z Mon. A trough moves into the central Rockies 12z Tue which moves into the central U. More troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Thu.
207 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected this evening with a crossing cold front.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 70 49 66 47 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 69 46 63 43 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 66 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 64 43 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Current satellite imagery shows clear skies across the CWA as a broad upper-level ridge spreads across western and central portions of the US. Temperatures Friday will be similar to today, if not just a tad cooler as cloud cover increases ahead of upper-level energy and a frontal system. Went with a NBM 50th/75th percentile blend which puts highs tomorrow afternoon in the low 70s over southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.