Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
North of this low, dry air will be funneled into the area from the Canadian Prairies. -Mottice Complex winter storm will feature the secondary cold front moving through the CWA tonight and Wednesday morning. A closed upper low will continue drifting southeast and moisture and energy to override this cold air, bringing moderate to possibly heavy snow at times late tonight/Wednesday, especially for the western zones.
The trough currently producing showers today will slowly pass over the region tonight into tomorrow, with the trough axis not passing overhead until tomorrow afternoon. As the trough axis passes overhead tomorrow afternoon, there is a chance for some isolated thunder as instability develops between the sun-warmed lower levels and the much colder air aloft, but we suspect most, if not all, precipitation will remain as run-of- the- mill spring showers, with some graupel or even small hail possible in the stronger cells.
The high will allow winds to continue to lighten during the day Wednesday, bcmg VRBL or SE after 01/18Z as the center of the ridge passes east of the area. /issued 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/ Nice weather is expected for the next couple of days as a high pressure system brings a dry continental air mass to the region. Rua A cold front has swept through the forecast area with a drier continental air mass now settling in. This air mass will persist for the next few days bringing with it cooler more seasonable conditions, especially at night, along with mild days.
1020 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Our first cold front since March 6 is expected to pass southeast across the Keys late on Wednesday morning. Fresh northwest breezes behind the front will usher in drier dewpoints dipping into the lower 60s by Wed night, with upper 50s possible.
After the front quickly pushes through to S FL early tomorrow, winds will veer northwest tomorrow, advecting noticeably cooler and drier air to the region. The streak of record high days will finally come to an end with max temps topping out in the low 70s to the north, mid 70s from Orlando to the Cape and low 80s for the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee.
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast and an upper trough overhead will generate some light showers over Central PA tonight and Wednesday morning. Conditions will improve Wednesday afternoon as high pressure moves in for a few days.
Mid-afternoon temperatures ranged from the low-mid 40s over the Bluegrass region to the upper 40s/lower 50s in areas west of I-65 where it has been drier. For Wednesday, high pressure is expected to nose in from the west and we'll start to see heights aloft build slowly. However, in the east, temperatures may only top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s depending on how long cloud cover sticks around.
/GG/ This Evening through Tomorrow: In the wake of the low pressure system which moved through earlier today, gusty northwest winds and a broken deck of stratus are keeping temperatures cooler across the area.
635 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Weak high pressure building into the region this afternoon will continue to bring clearing skies this evening and dry weather on Wednesday with increasing clouds through the day.
Temperatures won't fall much, with overnight lows in the low 30s. However upstream warm air advection ahead of slowly advancing cold front in the plains will bring increasing mid-high level clouds back into the area Wednesday night.
Expect warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend, although ample cloudiness prevailing into Wednesday. There may be enough moisture and synoptic scale ascent to promote a few showers near the highest peaks across eastern sections Wednesday afternoon.
Latest mesoanalysis shows a warm front moving east across central NEB about to moving into the eastern counties of the CWA. Of which, well above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow ahead of the cold front for much of the Sandhills and southwest NEB with more mild temps just behind. Current thinking is precip chances will be limited, except isolated showers late in the afternoon with the cold front. Elsewhere, a ridge will be downstream extending from the Lower Missouri Valley across the Upper Midwest.
GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts clear skies and calm winds across the Mid-South this evening due to the presence of high pressure. With high pressure still present over the Mid-South, conditions will be dry and cool on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region through the short term.
Meanwhile, an upper trough is in place across the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies, and is expected to deepen across the northwest CONUS over the next couple of days. Ahead of this deepening trough, a west-southwest flow will increase across eastern Utah and western Colorado tomorrow as a cold front sets up across northern Utah through southern Wyoming. This will allow for warmer temperatures across the area with H7 temperatures near 0C across the north and 4-5C across the south. A few showers may be possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly initiating over the higher terrain but precipitation amounts should remain on the light side. The cold front will push into the northwestern portions of the forecast area tomorrow night.
High pressure and drier air moves in towards the end of the week, bringing milder conditions into region this weekend. The region will remain under the influence of an upper level low through the period. However, drier air is pushing into the low levels, so expect any shower activity today to be very isolated and could also see breaks of sunshine for parts of the region. Strong low pressure out in the Atlantic will loop around and head back towards the New England Coast on Thursday. Tight pressure gradient between the low in the Atlantic and high pressure in Southern Ontario will make for a breezy day on Thursday.
Low level thermal ridging and dry downslope westerly flow and decreasing high clouds will boost temperatures well above normal Thursday.
These quiet conditions are due to the upper level ridge that is moving in today, causing high pressure to set up over the region.
1101 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Areas of mainly light precipitation are expected tonight through part of Wednesday with a crossing upper level trough. Dry weather with high pressure is then expected for the latter half of the week. Areas from PIT south have the highest POPs where the best moisture and upper support are seen on the evening upper air charts and mesoanlysis. The higher elevations across Garrett and Tucker counties should see some snow also, where around an inch of accumulation is expected on the highest ridge tops. Dry weather and clearing skies are expected through the short term as high pressure builds across the region.
Latest satellite imagery revealed that the North Atlantic high pressure continues to weaken as the Mid Atlantic trough continues it track to the northeast away from the U. Therefore, its associated ridge is no longer affecting our sensible weather. Guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned North Atlatnic high pressure will build once again. Seasonal summer like temperatures will continue throughout the forecast period, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lowers 80s. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will continue to be disrupted by a trough over the Mid- Atlantic states.
Weak cyclonic flow aloft downstream from an upper ridge centered near the 4-corners region, although there will be a subtle shift of the pattern eastward. Surface to low level moisture has trended downward a touch, which when combined with the increased heights/thicknesses from the shifting upper pattern, point to maybe a degree or two warmer highs relative to yesterday, although duration and extent of cloud cover may offset that. Overnight hours continue the trend toward quiet weather and slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
At the surface, a weak Piedmont trough is expected to be in place. The models have continued a trend of a weaker trough passage limiting convection chances to 20-30 POP during peak heating.
MaxT trends warmer today with highs generally above climo in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. last night) but warmer vs. Rain-free conditions are fcst through Thursday, with neutral height tendencies aloft, and weak ridging at the surface.
1028 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough along with a moist airmass over portions of the fa and heating will continue chances for scattered showers and some storms through sunset across portions of central and southern OK and western north TX.
High pressure has kept winds light through the day across eastern Kansas. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 60s across the cwa. On Wednesday with the high moving slowly to the east and some warm advection into central and north central Kansas, highs should top out a few degrees warmer than today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A trough deepening from Hudson Bay into the eastern U. will suppress the ridge over the Plains westward and the resultant northwest flow over eastern Kansas may see a PV anomaly along with a frontal boundary move southeast into or near northeast Kansas bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to far northeast Kansas Thursday evening. The next better chance for precipitation will be this weekend when a mid level trough moves across the central Plains.
Precipitation chances hold off until Thursday, when a cold front brings showers and storms back into the area. Temperature forecasts look to be on track for lows in the lower 60s, though a few upper 50s may occur near the Indiana border. High pressure will remain over central IL through Wednesday, providing clear skies and light winds to the area, although allowing a shallow cumulus layer to develop during the afternoon Wednesday, capped by a strong inversion based around 800-850 mb/4000-5000 ft. A cold front trailing a weak low moving through the Great Lakes Thursday will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.
KY eastward through Breckinridge, Meade, Hardin, to Bullitt and Spencer counties. Other than those clouds, it was mostly sunny this morning with temperatures in the low/mid 70 as of 10 am. High pressure will sit over the Ohio Valley for today. High pressure across the Ohio Valley will keep weather conditions quite pleasant for late August. With another nocturnal inversion expected to develop, patchy fog will be possible again, but mostly in the valleys as temps cool into the low 60s.
High pressure is moving over the Four Corners area which will allow for moisture to move deeper across northern Arizona from the Gulf of California.
937 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Low pressure system which brought rain to our region the last couple days finally pushes east of the region today and showers will come to an end by this afternoon.
Upper level low centered over Washington/northern Idaho will very gradually shift eastward across eastern Washington and the Idaho panhandle over the next couple of days. As the low slowly moves eastward and monsoonal moisture is advected from the southwest, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region today and tomorrow.
737 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Low pressure system which brought rain to our region the last couple days finally pushes east of the region today and showers will come to an end by this afternoon.
535 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Another dry and quiet day is on tap for central Illinois with temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the forecast area remaining between upper level ridging over the southwest and the mean westerlies across central Canada and into the Great Lakes region. A cutoff upper low was noted over WA. The surface pattern is similar in that weak high pressure continued to ridge into the central plains from the Upper Midwest while low pressure was noted over the southern and northern plains. 1000-500MB thicknesses and 850MB temps trend warmer from observed values yesterday. So temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday as a result.
519 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Water vapor imagery shows upper ridging centered over the Four Corners. and an upper low over the Pac NW, with west to northwest flow aloft across the region. The upper low will drift eastward on Thursday as it phases back into the main flow.
Similar conditions are anticipated Thursday, although temperatures will be slightly warmer along with less coverage of showers and storms anticipated as higher heights nudge in from the west.
Temperatures already climbing into the upper 60s west and the lower 80s east. MaxT trends warmer today with highs generally above climo in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. last night) but warmer vs. Rain-free conditions are fcst through Thursday, with neutral height tendencies aloft, and weak ridging at the surface.
(Today) A mid level area of low pressure was positioned across Northeast Texas. Mid level clouds wrapping around the low were common across East Central/Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. the area of low pressure is expected to continue to hold near its current position which is slightly east and southeast of the forecast 24-hrs ago. with the deeper moisture on the southern and eastern sides of the low.
The leading edge of the high pressure responsible for the drier conditions will build eastward and a weak wave pushing into the northwest U. Not only will moisture return in volume, but a series of troughs push through the area with the upper low passing through the Pacific Northwest.
638 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure over the region will result in generally dry weather and near seasonal temperatures today. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. High pressure will be situated over the central Appalachians. A mainly dry airmass aloft, although the low levels may see enough moisture creeping northward for a few showers/storms to pop this afternoon. Tonight, 5h trough over the Gulf Coast states deepens a bit, so enough moisture may override the front allow for an small threat of showers overnight along the southern Blue Ridge. Skies will become cloudier along/south of the VA/NC border tonight, and lows will be slightly warmer in the mid 60s, with lower 60s in the mountains.
While the models are in fairly good agreement developing a closed upper level low to our west over the MS Valley by this evening before opening the low as it moves into the forecast area overnight.
It will be hot this afternoon, with highs in the lower 90s. VCSH/TS included for coastal sites through mid afternoon, with TEMPOs included for interior terminals (and KDAB), which have the highest chances of seeing VIS/CIG reductions in stronger storms.
A closed low pressure system circulating over Washington is pulling Pacific moisture up from the southwest this morning. Precipitable water values near the climatological max and instability associated with the closed low will create favorable conditions for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall over northwest Montana this afternoon. Additional instability will be provided by a weak backdoor cold front passage. Rain looks to continue through Thursday in northwest Montana as the low moves east over western Montana.
408 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The air mass will be slightly warmer and drier again today. Winds in the lower to middle atmosphere are still very light, so storm motions will be slow, storms should be limited to the mountains, and may be even more limited in strength after the initial round on the ridges or upslope convergence zones. The pattern may wind up being similar to yesterday, mainly over/near the higher mountains and not sustaining. Forecast highs are slightly warmer than yesterday and look good.
546 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The area remains under the influence of high pressure, keeping the forecast for today dry. Thursday will be a little warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
609 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today through Thursday) Early this morning through Thursday, a lower level convergence zone, residual outflow boundaries, and weak troughing aloft linger over our area along with slightly above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) of 1. The highest PWs are along and south of US 90 near the convergence zone and expect the heaviest rains will focus there.
Not much has changed in the synoptic set up with the island chain left in a pseudo col region between a receded Atlantic ridge and the remnants of a continental trough. From synopsis, sprawling, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will continue to be disrupted by a trough over the Mid- Atlantic states.
The precip and cloud cover will once again hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A cold front remains stalled to the north with a very moist air mass in place south of the boundary. With the weak convergence and upper divergence in place and the high moisture content, high rain chances are anticipated.
335 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Water vapor imagery shows upper ridging centered over the Four Corners. and an upper low over the Pac NW, with west to northwest flow aloft across the region. The upper low will drift eastward on Thursday as it phases back into the main flow.
The upper level trough to our north will slowly push off farther to the northeast today and Thursday.
617 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today) A mid level area of low pressure was positioned across Northeast Texas. Mid level clouds wrapping around the low were common across East Central/Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. the area of low pressure is expected to continue to hold near its current position which is slightly east and southeast of the forecast 24-hrs ago. with the deeper moisture on the southern and eastern sides of the low.
The cloud cover and precipitation expected today should help keep highs in check -- and below seasonable norms, peaking in the low/mid 80s this afternoon. A low pressure system will track eastward along a stalled boundary in central AL/MS this afternoon, keeping the heavier rainfall axis just south of area.
and also crept temperatures up another degree or two from yesterday given the ridge overhead.
925 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 A high pressure system will continue to bring sunny to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to the Ohio Valley through Thursday.
Looking at H500 map, upper level flow will be out of the NW between a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the OH Valley. At the surface, a stalled out frontal boundary is draped across Srn AR/ Nrn LA with a pronounced area of low pressure attached to the boundary residing over the ArkLaTex's region. To no surprise, temperatures through the period will have the greatest diurnal range over Nrn AR where lows should start out in the lower/mid 60s before topping out in the mid/upper 80s for highs. Over Srn AR, clouds will be more prevalent and showers more numerous, therefore lows should be in the lower 70s with highs only topping out near 80 degrees.
High pressure across the Ohio Valley will keep weather conditions quite pleasant for late August. With another nocturnal inversion expected to develop, patchy fog will be possible again, but mostly in the valleys as temps cool into the low 60s.
Forecast is on track with this and temps are on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
The typical marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with the potential for coastal drizzle by mid/late week. Forecast max temps this afternoon will remain cooler at the coast with 60s/70s and a nudge downward across the interior with 80s/90s.
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today through Thursday) Early this Wednesday morning, quiet wx continued across Middle Tennessee under the control of dry high pressure from the north. High pressure will keep most of Middle Tennessee rain-free today, but the front lurking just south of our area will allow a few showers or storms to creep up into our far southern counties. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The weekend will bring warmer temps and slightly higher humidity levels as southerly flow becomes established across the area.
957 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Another dry and quiet day is on tap for central Illinois with temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
636 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge today extends from the Atlantic, across the southwestern half of TX, northward across the 4 Corners region. A low sits over WA and a broad trough is located over the NE States. Should be a little warmer today in the mid to upper 80s but still several degrees below normal.
249 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 With the upper low centered over Washington State, instability and lift continue to rotate through ahead of it into the northern Rockies. While this wave is expected to move through by noon Thursday, there will still be enough instability to bubble up more showers on the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. There will be westerly flow across the region as a shallow trough slides eastward through northern WY.
322 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure and dry air remain settled over the area. This combined with slight expansion of the upper level high to the west results in warmer temperatures across the area. High temperatures look to reach the upper 80s into the low 90s to close out the week.
Our region maintains a moist northeast flow with plenty of residual moisture hanging around on the backside of the low. High pressure will slowly sag southward overnight. Cooler air, light winds and mid level subsidence will likely result in fog over parts of north central and northeast South Dakota by early Thursday morning.
128 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Low pressure system which brought rain to our region the last couple days finally pushes east of the region today and showers will come to an end by this afternoon.
147 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure will remain over the region tonight into Thursday. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. High pressure will be situated over the central Appalachians. The combination of heating and low level convergence could create isolated shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain especially the southwest mountains. The 5h trough over the Gulf Coast states deepens tonight, so enough moisture may override the front allow for an small threat of showers overnight along the southern Blue Ridge. High pressure will exit offshore on Thursday, while a broad upper level trough resides across the East. Scattered showers and storms will develop in the afternoon, especially along the southern Blue Ridge.
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 /Updated at 1247 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022/ Broad ridging aloft remains centered over the Four Corners States while a broad trough is centered over the Tennessee Valley region. Abundant moisture through much of the atmospheric column along with sufficient divergent forcing aloft and enough convergence in the lower levels has resulted in several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of our Southwest Counties. Winds today will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph while highs will range from the upper 70s southwest to the lower 80s elsewhere. Winds will be light overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s areawide.
Minimum temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s, very similar to last night, but on average a few degrees warmer than climatology. Rain-free conditions are forecast through Thursday, with neutral height tendencies aloft, and weak ridging at the surface.