Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
524 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Storm coverage should continue to gradually increase over the eastern part of the forecast area until early evening when lift from the upper level short wave trough and weak convergence from the low level jet will shift southwest. skies are a msunny/psunny mix as an upper low/frontal boundary resides over the area. precipitation continues to taper off thru 06z Sunday with the entire upper low/surface boundary complex shifting well east of the region. Looking for skies to become partly cloudy after 06z Sunday and wind becoming light as strong H5/H7 ridging begins to nose into the Plains region. Looking for above normal highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 80s which will be off of overnight lows in the 50s.
1044 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over western portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Northern Rockies. With high pressure over the area, winds are variable and mostly on the lighter side. Warm and pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend as the ridge slowly slides east into the high plains. Highs on Sunday will be slightly warmer than today, 80s and lower 90s.
An upper trough just offshore will weaken and move across the region on Sunday.
North of the Great Lakes, another upper level low is diving southeastward. This low will help guide its southern counterpart a bit further south as it approaches the ARKLATEX region.
1037 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Storm coverage should continue to gradually increase over the eastern part of the forecast area until early evening when lift from the upper level short wave trough and weak convergence from the low level jet will shift southwest. skies are a msunny/psunny mix as an upper low/frontal boundary resides over the area. precipitation continues to taper off thru 06z Sunday with the entire upper low/surface boundary complex shifting well east of the region. Looking for skies to become partly cloudy after 06z Sunday and wind becoming light as strong H5/H7 ridging begins to nose into the Plains region. Looking for above normal highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 80s which will be off of overnight lows in the 50s.
Stronger and more numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening as a Pacific trough comes in. Otherwise, surface winds will be northwest 10-15 kts with cold front passage.
The upper trough axis will shift east of our area on Sunday, but with a 500mb vorticity lobe entering our area on the back side of the trough, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible. (Sunday night through next Saturday) By Sunday evening, the weak upper level trough axis will be just east of the area. The upper trough continues to slowly move east to start the work week, and PoPs will continue to trend downward as a result as temperatures begin to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 The RAP model and Satellite indicate the upper low across Nern Colo will drop south this evening. It would appear this process is occurring as a the upper low across Srn Canada moves east toward the Great Lakes. Once the upper low moves south late this evening, rain chances will end. High pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into up into the Rockies though the end of the week. This spells weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridging across our area.
1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A broad upper low over Oklahoma is kicking off scattered convection across southern parts of KS and MO with more isolated activity further north into our area. The best storm coverage through the evening will remain in closer proximity to the upper low, generally south of US 50, although very isolated showers and a few storms are possible as far north as the Iowa border. Any storms north of I-70 should die off quickly after dark, while a few showers could continue overnight south of I-70 due to the presence of the upper low. Sunday will be a near repeat performance of today as the upper low makes slow eastward progress into the Ozarks, with perhaps a bit more storm coverage across areas south of I-70.
1028 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A low developing over Texas, and associated moisture, will shift a little farther east Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, with another round of diurnal convection.
739 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A low developing over Texas, and associated moisture, will shift a little farther east Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, with another round of diurnal convection.
Winds will quickly taper off this evening as high pressure sets up over the state and with the formation of the nocturnal low level inversion. Went well below blended guidance for lows, closer (but not at) to MAV/MET output which puts western ND in the 40s and my eastern counties in the low 50s. Upper ridge moves slowly east tonight into Sunday towards the western Dakotas, allowing WAA into the region. Thermal ridge will be mainly over eastern MT but still expect low 90s for highs west and south central where 935MB temps will range from 28-31C.
Leaned toward the warmer end of numerical guidance for highs tomorrow given the recent cool bias of models, and considering we will have clear skies and a westerly component to the winds with good mixing again. We could see a few afternoon showers/storms develop in west central WI (near Ladysmith) as the upper low drops across WI.
Look for these trends to continue overnight as an inverted trough develops across Middle Tennessee.
For Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north toward the Ohio River during the late morning/early afternoon hours bringing a more moist, unstable airmass into central KY. Sunday night a cold front and upper trough will drop south from the Great Lakes region providing additional forcing for continued convection Sun night. High temps Sun should range from the lower 80s over southern KY (clouds/rain) to mid to upper 80s over northern KY/southern IN (less rain/clouds).
936 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Added some sky cover to the grids with high clouds moving in over the ridge from the west. Winds will quickly taper off this evening as high pressure sets up over the state and with the formation of the nocturnal low level inversion. Went well below blended guidance for lows, closer (but not at) to MAV/MET output which puts western ND in the 40s and my eastern counties in the low 50s. Upper ridge moves slowly east tonight into Sunday towards the western Dakotas, allowing WAA into the region. Thermal ridge will be mainly over eastern MT but still expect low 90s for highs west and south central where 935MB temps will range from 28-31C.
High pressure will keep VFR and light winds in place through this evening.
21 (Saturday night through Friday) A fast moving cold front will move through West Central Texas, mainly after midnight Saturday night.
By Saturday morning, a cold front will be just entering northeastern Utah and will bring a few rain and snow showers to the eastern Uintas.
1033 mb high pressure over Nova Scotia Canada ridged sw into the TN river valley. Southerly flow over IL between these system along with ample sunshine this afternoon was bringing warmer temperatures in the mid 70s. Lows tonight in the lower 60s west of I-57 and upper 50s from I-57 east.
This will produce a severe weather threat along and south of the low track, or triple point, as well as a heavy rain threat. Thus, we will be seeing the convection most widespread over the northern 2/3rds of the CWA early in the period, mainly due to stratification of storms, which will occur in all locations as the cold front arrives, and forcing continues behind the low level front. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches should occur during the evening, and depending on the locations of the higher amounts, a flash flood watch may exist.
Lows will be warmer tonight due to southerly surface winds, at least some cloud cover especially across northeast MO and west central IL, and higher surface dew points.
1205 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather Saturday.
Clouds will gradually move eastward into the Northland ahead of a developing low pressure system arriving on Saturday. Have lowered min temps in climatologically cool areas, some as cold as the low 20s, where winds should subside for several hours overnight.
A few light showers or drizzle is possible over the eastern half this evening along and ahead of a cold front. Clouds will then be on the increase Sat ahead of a low pressure system.
while ECAM guidance is a bit further south with the the higher POPs. The upper trough will quickly move east Saturday night, with only a bit of lingering rain in the far southeastern counties around midnight and we should dry out completely by early morning. A generally quiet end to the weekend will give way to a quiet work week with upper ridging tracking across the CONUS.
1036 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A weak surface boundary just south of the CSRA will weaken through tonight as ridging overtakes the region. High pressure will be over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather.
735 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure south of the Canadian Maritimes will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
As this wave continues to progress toward the lower/middle MO Valley region tonight, a few showers or storms could develop on the cool side of the surface boundary in response to nocturnally strengthening isentropic ascent (the mass response to boundary- layer decoupling within the warm sector). Isentropic ascent ahead of this wave will episodically be enhanced by a series of minor midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward ahead of the trough. This activity and related cloud debris may tend to mute boundary-layer destabilization on the warm side of a sharpening cold front that will spread eastward/southeastward from the afternoon into the evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity attendant with the passage of cold frontal boundary should be ongoing at the start of the period-- primarily south and east of a line from Abilene to Hiawatha.
High pressure over the Ohio valley will bring dry weather to Central Indiana tonight and Saturday.
737 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure over New England will keep things dry today but clouds will increase. A bit of light rain or drizzle may visit some areas tonight into early Saturday as a warm front passes.
The breezy southerly winds will remain as upper level southwesterly flow continues and a broad upper level trough moves into the plains through the day Saturday.
812 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure south of the Canadian Maritimes will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
Showers with snow at the higher elevations will continue to taper off this evening as the upper level trough shifts east and an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. With the upper level ridge building over the area a thermal trough deepens along the southern coast with offshore flow spreading across the east side by Saturday morning.
A passing cold front will lead to breezy north winds across the region Saturday, with the windiest conditions within the Colorado River Valley.
/issued 305 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ A strong upper ridge centered over the SE US is providing a warm and sunny day across the Midsouth. Expect the ridge to remain in place through Saturday with a more enhanced southerly wind and even warmer conditions.
A short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be making its way southeast and then east across the Northern Plains through Saturday night. Therefore, with these low clouds along with mid level clouds developing from southwest to northeast with the short wave trough, skies will become cloudy later tonight and Saturday. With deep layer forcing with the advancing short wave trough, showers will spread in from the southwest later tonight and expand through Saturday. The models then show the trough and showers ending quickly Saturday night during the evening across the east. A cold front moving through on Saturday will also bring some breezy northwest winds into the early evening hours.
A dry cold front will enter from the north during the day Saturday. On Saturday, a Pacific cold front will slide through the state, with it's back door counterpart sliding through the plains on Saturday night.
Saturday morning will be quite cold with all areas below freezing.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure prevails through Saturday.
/issued 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ An upper level ridge of high pressure centered from east Texas to the Gulf coast states will slowly flatten and move east through Saturday as a large upper level storm system moves across the center of the nation. As the upper system tracks across the rockies and plains a strong cold front will plunge through the forecast area Saturday night. Strong forcing with the upper trough and right rear quadrant of the jet should aid in the development of widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday night. The most numerous activity is expected to be across the northeast Permian Basin closet to the forcing with the trough and jet.
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Saturday night.
/issued 1044 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South tonight. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 60s across much of West Tennessee and North Mississippi while Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel remain in the mid 60s. /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ A strong upper ridge centered over the SE US is providing a warm and sunny day across the Midsouth. Expect the ridge to remain in place through Saturday with a more enhanced southerly wind and even warmer conditions.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will move to the west through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be centered northeast of the Bahamas tonight.
1044 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure remains over the Mid-South tonight. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 60s across much of West Tennessee and North Mississippi while Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel remain in the mid 60s. /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ A strong upper ridge centered over the SE US is providing a warm and sunny day across the Midsouth. Expect the ridge to remain in place through Saturday with a more enhanced southerly wind and even warmer conditions.
1039 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure off the New England coast will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
729 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure prevails through Saturday.
837 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A sprawling area of high pressure covering the southeastern U. and northern Gulf combined with an inverted trough over the southern Gulf will maintain a moderate deep layered northeast to easterly wind flow across the forecast area the remainder of tonight. It will be a very mild night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. A 4-5MB pressure gradient from KMFL to KJAX courtesy of high pressure over the southeastern U. and northern Gulf and an inverted trough over the southeast and southern Gulf will maintain a breezy northeast to easterly wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with winds in the 15 to 20 knot range expected over most of the waters.
Increasing southwest winds this weekend ahead of a cold front will bring warmer and sunnier weather this weekend.
912 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday.
848 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A corridor of enhanced shower activity continues to push onshore Brevard County this evening, likely the result of a weak inverted trough sitting over the area. Meanwhile, drier air will build down the southeast coast tonight as high pressure shifts into the Carolinas, encroaching our northern areas toward sunrise.
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A cold front will approach northern Maine overnight. The cold front will move into the area on Saturday and stall Saturday night.
Water vapor imagery depicts a broad western trough with multiple impulses flowing through southwest flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface a lee cyclone is centered over southeast Montana with a warm front draped over central and western North Dakota. This evening a jet max rounds the western trough, deepening a low pressure system over the state. As the cold front catches up to the forcing further east, accumulating snow becomes possible. As the aforementioned cold front moves northwest to southeast overnight into Saturday, the surface front will be a focus of rain early Saturday morning through the day as well as high temperatures in the 40s and breezy northwest winds behind the front.
1024 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Saturday night.
713 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A weak surface boundary just south of the CSRA will weaken through tonight as ridging overtakes the region. High pressure will be over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather.
A low/mid level disturbance will continue to shift southwest into the regional waters overnight as high pressure wedges down the eastern seaboard. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across the interior and the low to mid 70s along the coast due to the onshore flow. Strong high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritime Region continues to build southward down the U.
637 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 An upper trough and associated cold front will cross the region tonight into Saturday. The main story for our area will be the winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and potential fog ahead of the front late tonight into Saturday morning. Low level moisture will increase tonight as the low level flow increases from the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front. Upper trough will be over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon with showers moving to the east ending over the north central as the trough moves to the east.
Upper-level ridge to maintain mostly clear skies across the ArkLaTex through much of tonight.
Even if the late afternoon activity fails to mature, additional convection currently forming over the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico will have a good shot of clipping our far northwestern zones around/over Parmer County as it translates northeastward. This will occur as a potent upper level trough currently over the northwestern states advances through the central and northern High Plains. Although the bulk of the lift with this system will pass by to the north it will propel a seasonably strong cold front southward through the South Plains.
At 850mb, a low was analyzed in north central KS/south central NE, with an 8C+ moisture axis extending into southeast NE/southwest IA ahead of the low. A warm front was noted from the low eastward near the I-80 corridor into central IA.
The upper trough will quickly move east Saturday night, with only a bit of lingering rain in the far southeastern counties around midnight and we should dry out completely by early morning. A generally quiet end to the weekend will give way to a quiet work week with upper ridging tracking across the CONUS.
Both areas of frontogenesis will weaken later this evening but some rain will likely persist in the south as the low level jet does not completely veer away from the region. How far north the effective warm front can move into srn WI will likely determine the eventual severe tstorm threat. Periods of rain tnt will eventually result in the saturation of the low levels with Cigs falling below 1 kft. The low stratus will then persist for Sat-Sat nt.
Forecast on track this evening with high pressure in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 64 81 / 0 10 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 63 80 / 0 10 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 62 82 63 80 / 0 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 80 57 79 / 0 10 0 40.
Temp trends are mainly in the lower/mid 80s, and this is prob the max for today. Temps should quickly fall into the lower 70s early this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and eventually into the 60s past midnight. The latest model suites are then hinting at a cold front dropping out of the Plains states on Sun and sweeping sewd thru the local area Sun afternoon/evening. Sig cooler/drier air will then stream into the area late Sun in the wake of the frontal passage, as a strong dome of high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains begins to build ewd.
This evening's surface analysis showed a rather strong high pressure ridge along the U.
622 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be making its way southeast and then east across the Northern Plains through Saturday night. Therefore, with these low clouds along with mid level clouds developing from southwest to northeast with the short wave trough, skies will become cloudy later tonight and Saturday. With deep layer forcing with the advancing short wave trough, showers will spread in from the southwest later tonight and expand through Saturday. The models then show the trough and showers ending quickly Saturday night during the evening across the east. A cold front moving through on Saturday will also bring some breezy northwest winds into the early evening hours.
1156 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure off the New England coast will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
Moisture depth in the lower levels may be sufficient for an isolated shallow late night shower offshore and near the coast.
742 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday.
1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 An upper trough and associated cold front will cross the region tonight into Saturday. The main story for our area will be the winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and potential fog ahead of the front late tonight into Saturday morning. Low level moisture will increase tonight as the low level flow increases from the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front. Upper trough will be over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon with showers moving to the east ending over the north central as the trough moves to the east.
822 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Unseasonably mild conditions are expected into overnight into Saturday in advance of a low pressure system.
416 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will move out to sea tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
A strong cold front is forecast to move across the area on Sunday with an upper level trough and short wave associated.
Weak high pressure covers the region this weekend.
Cold front has swept across the area overnight with much cooler temperatures in its wake. Even with the cooler temperatures and higher RH values, will go ahead and upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warnings and will add a few counties of southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas due to extreme wind speeds, ERC values near 95 percentile across western zones and ongoing wildfires. This will result in freezing temperatures across much of the area Sunday morning. A bit warmer on Sunday, but still well below normal.
Models have been trending slightly slower and more toward a neutral and eventually negative tilt with the upper-level trough as it moves toward the Mississippi River Valley. These small changes should result in lower surface pressures along the cold front with stronger backing of surface winds as a QLCS approaches from the west. The passage of a cold front will bring cooler conditions for Sunday.