Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will move east of the region today, allowing SSW winds to crank up by late morning on into the afternoon. ridge.
A cold front/wind shift is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma this evening and move through at least KWWR. /issued 417 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ The closed low over southern AZ will progress eastward today and open as it begins NE lift over NM late tonight. Ahead of it, a dryline will bulge over NW OK as a cold front moves into southern KS. It appears the highest chances will quickly shift north throughout the day into extreme northern/northeastern OK.
Otherwise, with sfc/upper level ridging influences look like they will continue to be in place, passing patches of sct CU possible at all terminal locations thru 28/12Z.
/issued 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ A broad trough sits over the northern CONUS this morning with a weak, cut-off low over the Desert Southwest. The flow aloft over our neck of the woods is quasi-zonal at this time but will transition more southwesterly beginning today as the Southwest trough moves east and the subtropical ridge over the Southeast builds.
A cold front is sliding across the region this morning with light showers ongoing. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s, or 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A developing low pressure system west of the region will bring increasing south to southeasterly winds on Saturday. Not expecting much pcpn east of the Highway 83 as the airmass will be rather dry.
The low clouds aren't expected to last long with VFR conditions expected for all sites by mid morning through the rest of the forecast period. /Issued 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ Warm and humid conditions return today ahead of the next cold front which will become aligned through central / southern KS by mid afternoon. Upper low currently centered over the northern Baja will become increasingly sheared as it ejects across the southern Plains Friday night through Saturday.
343 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Expect increasing cloud cover across northeast Montana for today ahead of the approaching low pressure system set to bring heavy rainfall to the area starting late tonight or Saturday morning.
There is a weak mid level shear axis over the western Gulf this morning that will move toward the lower Texas coast this afternoon.
Highs today and Lows tonight will remain warmer than usual late September temperatures.
417 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The closed low over southern AZ will progress eastward today and open as it begins NE lift over NM late tonight. Ahead of it, a dryline will bulge over NW OK as a cold front moves into southern KS. It appears the highest chances will quickly shift north throughout the day into extreme northern/northeastern OK.
Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through Saturday night as weak high pressure remains over Florida.
Winds are light due to weak high pressure ridge axis nearby. Max temps in the mid 80s at the coast, warming to the lower 90s over the interior counties. Favorable boating conditions today as weak high pressure ridge over the area produces light winds.
527 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A southward propagating cold front passed through the majority of the CWA over the past few hours and has propped itself up against the Laramie Range which will setup Friday's weather. Light rain showers are expected to develop behind this cold front early Friday morning, especially across the northern zones.
903 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Current radar and surface weather observations show a few light showers moving eastward across southeast Saskatchewan and northwest North Dakota, which appear to be associated with a surface pressure trough. Tonight, cooler air will follow into the state as high pressure positions itself across southern Canada. Low temperatures tonight will depend on cloud cover, but it generally looks like some widespread frost is likely along highway 2 and north, where lows will be in the lower 30s.
909 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Dry stable conditions continue across the forecast area early this morning courtesy of high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies being observed. Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s early this morning will climb into the lower 90s during the afternoon with slightly cooler readings along the immediate coast with the sea breeze. High pressure over the region will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Satellite imagery this morning was showing large area of low pressure centered near Hudson bay. At the surface, low pressure was centered along the ND/MN border with a cold front extending southwestward to the NE panhandle. Models are in good agreement that large scale flow over the CONUS will become highly amplified over this weekend with a large low encompassing the the western half of the CONUS and a dome of high pressure over the eastern half. For today, a cold front is expected to push across the CWA later this morning. By afternoon the boundary is progged to lift as a warm front, allowing for an additional round of precip through the day.
No major changes were made to the forecast with most of the winter storm watches upgraded to warnings, along with an expansion of the high wind warning further westward in Northwest Montana. - 1 to 3 feet of snow across the mountains of the Continental Divide with 6 to 12 inches for the rest of the higher terrain.
This should allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s, leading to widespread frost. Some areas may experience freezing temperatures.
316 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Today and Tonight: Continued dry with near record afternoon temperatures and warmer than normal morning lows. High pressure surface and aloft centered east of our CWA will continue to dominate Saturday limiting rain chances and helping to provide the warm temperatures. Our normal lows range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Our normal highs run in the low to mid 80s. With PWATs remaining just below and inch and a half and dew points mixing in the 60s during peak heating, the heat index values will be in the lower 100s in west and upper 90s in the east.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Expect increasing cloud cover across northeast Montana for today ahead of the approaching low pressure system set to bring heavy rainfall to the area starting late tonight or Saturday morning.
1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Satellite imagery this morning was showing large area of low pressure centered near Hudson bay. At the surface, low pressure was centered along the ND/MN border with a cold front extending southwestward to the NE panhandle. Models are in good agreement that large scale flow over the CONUS will become highly amplified over this weekend with a large low encompassing the the western half of the CONUS and a dome of high pressure over the eastern half. For today, a cold front is expected to push across the CWA later this morning. By afternoon the boundary is progged to lift as a warm front, allowing for an additional round of precip through the day.
High pressure slides east atop the central Appalachians today, favoring light/vrb flow across much of the forecast area this morning, however expected to gradually veer sly as a weak warm front advects in this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 71 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 90 69 / 10 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 91 69 / 10 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 87 64 / 20 10 30 10.
225 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Early this afternoon, a cold front was located from northern WI back through northeast IA. Saturday continues to look dry with ridging building across the area in the wake of the cold front and seasonable highs in the 60s.
Look for decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage today as the low moves east out of the state. A slight chance for showers is possible mainly in the White Mountain Region as the low advances east out of the state. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will prevail though a shower as far west as Flagstaff on the high terrain can't be ruled out.
140 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Upper level high pressure developing over the Pacific Northwest will result in a rapidly deepening marine layer in Southern California.
High pressure to the east will continue to drive a warm front across the region today.
An upper level low currently in southeastern AZ will track to the northwest across the TX Panhandle area on Saturday. Otherwise, continued breezy south winds with lows tonight generally in the low 70s and highs Saturday mainly in the low to mid 90s. 20 (Saturday night through Friday) West Central Texas will continue to be on the western edge of upper level high pressure through midweek, with southwest flow over the region.
upper ridging through the day tomorrow. Areas that pick up more late morning into early afternoon rain (thicker cloud cover) will only peak out on the shy side of 90 F while others that remain more dry will achieve the lower 90s by 3 or 4 PM.
Pattern through the weekend and well into the new week will be dominated by strong high pressure at the surface and aloft. A strong ridge of high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain a moderate east to southeast flow through the weekend and well into the new week.
1105 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A southward propagating cold front passed through the majority of the CWA over the past few hours and has propped itself up against the Laramie Range which will setup Friday's weather. Light rain showers are expected to develop behind this cold front early Friday morning, especially across the northern zones.
At the surface, a weak cold front lies from the OK panhandle through northeast KS, but is not expected to progress even as far south as northeast OK. Large upper ridge will build over the southeast and south central U.
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A weak cold front will be stationary across the area today.
Once the sun sets this evening, though, the atmosphere will stabilize under the building ridge which will bring an end to any shower or thunderstorms around. The building ridge will push any shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon and evening east to the far eastern counties of Alabama.
252 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 An upper low moving into southwestern New Mexico this afternoon will bring showers and thunderstorms across the TX panhandle tonight. Areas north of the front will be a bit cooler than those to the south before the front takes the front moves north back into KS Saturday night.
/issued 909 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ Dry stable conditions continue across the forecast area early this morning courtesy of high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies being observed. Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s early this morning will climb into the lower 90s during the afternoon with slightly cooler readings along the immediate coast with the sea breeze. High pressure over the region will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
915 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 An unseasonably strong upper level low pressure system will be developing over the Pacific Northwest today into the weekend.
Mostly dry conditions expected today ahead of the upcoming area of low pressure.
1156 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The eastward progression of the low pressure in the Desert Southwest has slowed and the track is a touch further south. Daytime heating should result in scattered storm development over the high terrain this afternoon. The main low pressure dropping southward over the Pacific Northwest today will increase the pressure gradient across the region so let the wind begin. The Uintas have the best shot of precipitation given the proximity to the trough and therefore a weaker cap.
The area of greatest concern for near or below freezing temperatures tonight is in north central Minnesota. Tomorrow, flow begins to shift to a southwesterly direction ahead of the next trough.
Low temperatures will warm into the lower 70s area-wide as a result. The upper level ridge will strengthen and retrograde west over the Four State Region Saturday night. The increase in subsidence and moist surface conditions will result in low temperatures warming slightly into the low to mid 70s.
601 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 As a front sweeps across the high plains, rain showers are moving over southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day tomorrow but max temperatures will be a little bit warmer than today in the 60s and 70s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 94 70 96 / 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 69 94 / 10 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 68 94 / 10 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 64 90 / 10 30 0 10.
It appears the surface warm front does not move into our CWA, even so MU capes in the 1500 j/kg, near saturated model sounding to near 250 mb and precipitable water values approaching record levels for this time of year (1. However the real threat is the upstream convection from eastern Iowa across to Chicago and the convection on the cold front just behind that over southern WI into extreme northwest IL. The moisture transport vectors and the low level jet forecast from the RAP model suggest the strongest storms till track to between I-94 and I-96 in the 10 pm to 1 am time frame.
Showers and thunderstorm activity this afternoon is much less than what occurred this morning as the cut-off upper low has opened up a bit this afternoon over Graham county. Otherwise as the upper low continues to open up and weaken moving into New Mexico, cloud cover will be decreasing leading to a clear to mostly clear night.
642 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Early this afternoon, a cold front was located from northern WI back through northeast IA. Saturday continues to look dry with ridging building across the area in the wake of the cold front and seasonable highs in the 60s.
628 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday with a crossing cold front.
405 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 An approaching cold front from the northwest will result in thunderstorms this evening and tonight. An approaching cold front in central IA will move into central IL after midnight and then come to a screeching halt, before it slowly starts lifting northward. We should see a lull in this activity as the short range convective allowing models show the low level jet weakening and shifting more northeastward. The next potential for convection is expected this evening after 01-03z in central IL as the strong low level flow ahead of an advancing cold front continues to pump low level moisture into west central, then central Illinois. Not a lot of confidence that the lowest ceilings will make to the other TAF sites in central IL.
1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Currently - A broad ridge aligned off the Atlantic Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico is providing moderate to fresh east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Healthy ridging along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh east breezes across Keys waters overnight.
With upper level high pressure over the southeast CONUS and rather weak southwest flow aloft locally, convection is not expected to be well organized. The southeast CONUS upper high will strengthen and build northward on Saturday afternoon and night. Increasing low level moisture in the warm/moist advection will keep low temperatures warmer (in the 60s) tonight, especially over the northern part of the area where it was around 50 this morning. The models are in decent agreement with the persistent upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Ohio Valley for much of the extended.
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes were needed as the area remains beneath a persistent synoptic regime characterized by anomalous ridging. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry with near record afternoon temperatures and warmer than normal morning lows. High pressure surface and aloft centered east of our CWA will continue to dominate Saturday limiting rain chances and helping to provide the warm temperatures. Our normal lows range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Our normal highs run in the low to mid 80s. With PWATs remaining just below and inch and a half and dew points mixing in the 60s during peak heating, the heat index values will be in the lower 100s in west and upper 90s in the east.
The building ridge will push any shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon and evening east to the far eastern counties of Alabama.
VFR conditions expected through the first 9 hours or so of forecast, before IFR/MVFR conditions will spread in across KWWR terminals behind a slow moving cold front. /issued 252 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/ An upper low moving into southwestern New Mexico this afternoon will bring showers and thunderstorms across the TX panhandle tonight. Areas north of the front will be a bit cooler than those to the south before the front takes the front moves north back into KS Saturday night.
Much of the high resolution guidance suggests the potential for fog across parts of the central, so added in the mention of fog here. This should allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s, leading to widespread frost. Some areas may experience freezing temperatures.
1000 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A quiet and mild WX pattern overnight as a large high pres ridge over the ern CONUS maintains a deep and steady easterly flow acrs central FL. No sig change to the current WX pattern overnight as a large high pres ridge blanketing the ern CONUS remains nearly stationary and generates a gentle to moderate easterly breeze.
935 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday with a crossing cold front.
708 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snow and a rain-snow mix into the northern valleys this weekend.
321 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 As a front sweeps across the high plains, rain showers are moving over southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day tomorrow but max temperatures will be a little bit warmer than today in the 60s and 70s.
Kept the lower ceilings for now for PIB and HBG. Today and Tonight: Continued dry with near record afternoon temperatures and warmer than normal morning lows. High pressure surface and aloft centered east of our CWA will continue to dominate Saturday limiting rain chances and helping to provide the warm temperatures. Our normal lows range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Our normal highs run in the low to mid 80s. With PWATs remaining just below and inch and a half and dew points mixing in the 60s during peak heating, the heat index values will be in the lower 100s in west and upper 90s in the east.
A strong deep layer ridge will continue across the area through the near term.
231 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Significant cooling trend continues today as marine air is ushered into the forecast area associated with the digging upper trough. Cold front will continue to push south, leading to additional cooling tomorrow. This is a much cooler air mass, and afternoon highs as a response will be at least 10 degrees cooler -- perhaps as much as 12-13 degrees in a few areas -- than yesterday. Another round of wind will occur tomorrow across the forecast area as the trough moves further south.
353 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure over the region, along with mostly clear skies and light winds has allowed temperatures to fall into the mid 30s, to the low 40s. A strong area of low pressure should be situated over western Nebraska Sunday afternoon with southerly flow into eastern SD. Instability will gradually advect into our area as the warm front advects northward.
1052 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Early this afternoon, a cold front was located from northern WI back through northeast IA. Saturday continues to look dry with ridging building across the area in the wake of the cold front and seasonable highs in the 60s. As this occurs Saturday night and Sunday, low to mid-level warm/moist advection will take place with chances for showers/storms as a warm front lifts north.
216 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Water vapor shows upper trof digging along the west coast with upper low over western WA. Warm front pushing through will result in much warmer temps, with 80s south and east of the Black Hills. Unsettled conditions expected through midweek with a gradual cooling trend as western CONUS trof nudges eastward.
An upper level low currently in southeastern AZ will track to the northwest across the TX Panhandle area on Saturday. Otherwise, continued breezy south winds with lows tonight generally in the low 70s and highs Saturday mainly in the low to mid 90s.
Deep layer ridging will prevail, with the potential for another day of record heat.
/NF/ The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes were needed as the area remains beneath a persistent synoptic regime characterized by anomalous ridging. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry with near record afternoon temperatures and warmer than normal morning lows. High pressure surface and aloft centered east of our CWA will continue to dominate Saturday limiting rain chances and helping to provide the warm temperatures. Our normal lows range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Our normal highs run in the low to mid 80s. With PWATs remaining just below and inch and a half and dew points mixing in the 60s during peak heating, the heat index values will be in the lower 100s in west and upper 90s in the east.
By Sunday any hope for rainfall will fizzle as the H500 ridge begins to expand westward over the area and temperatures increase.
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Synoptic Setup: Forecast starts with hot high pressure bottled up over the Four Corners and a cool pacific trough resting over Oregon and Washington. Today through Tonight: As the first round of pacific moisture overruns the cold front to the southwest, rain will overspread from southwest to northeast through the day. Temperatures are expected to be near freezing across higher elevations such as the little rockies during the day and spread to the Opheim Plateau tonight which will turn some of the rain into snow overnight. Sunday through Sunday night: With the low pressure system that formed from the system lifting northeast to east the backside will pull across northeast Montana.
High pressure will be over the area today and Sunday.
321 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Broad mid level ridging is currently sprawled across eastern Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as an upper level low east of Florida drifts north and away from the Bahamas. At the surface, the subtropical ridge of high pressure centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast extends southwest across northern Florida, setting up generally easterly flow. With this ridging at the surface and aloft, stable and generally rain free conditions will continue today and tonight. The mid level ridge will gradually build over the southeastern US during the first half of the week, while strong surface ridging holds just north of Florida.
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic continuing to provide an onshore low-level flow over the forecast area at this time. After a nice run of dry weather, global model QPF solutions and high res model reflectivity progs are in agreement with widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development through today primarily across the wrn 1/2 of the forecast as increasing low-level moisture around the periphery of the nern Gulf ridge interacts with less capping.