Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1243 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Drying out and remaining cool under increasing high pressure influences through Monday. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Clouds and remaining rain showers/mountain snow showers will exit this morning as upper level low pulls eastward. With a dry airmass in place, insolation will help the max temps along today wile 850mb temps reside in the low single digits. The temperatures tonight are easily there in the low to mid 30s. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
915 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Northwest flow aloft will develop over the region tonight and Monday as an upper level trough lifts northeast offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast.
1038 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 It is a refreshing morning across the Florida Keys with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 326 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017/ High pressure will remain in full control of the weather today and into much of the week across west-central and SW Florida. As an upper low across the northeastern U. continues to move to the NE, upper ridging will build in across the area.
A deep upper level trough will dig into southern California today. Temperatures should be even a little warmer than yesterday with highs between 85 and 88 degrees.
Dry cold front has pushed through this morning which will bring in a re-enforcement of dry air to the area. Data buoy obs indicate winds continue to decrease across the waters and this trend will continue into the afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in.
This morning, the surface analysis positions the cold front NE to SW just west of the Northeast Montana CWA. Temperatures to our west are cooler, so expect additional thunderstorms to develop more to the east today. Templer Previous discussion - Cold front extending from near Colstrip north to Swift Current bisecting Garfield and Valley counties early this morning. SOuth of that airmass is a closed low over the Baja and southern Arizona. Farther west another closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska.
Winds will be gusty at times this afternoon, as a low pressure system develops in the Plains, and then diminish after sunset. /issued 418 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A deep upper level low pressure system will continue to move southeastward over southern California with strong ridging affecting the middle portions of the country. At the surface, high pressure remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico, providing moderate southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas. Cloud cover will continue to increase on Monday, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures during the day.
507 AM PDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure over the region will keep the the weather cool and unsettled into Monday.
955 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Very quiet weather pattern for the national today as high pressure conts to dominate the weather over the gulf region. /issued 331 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ This morning's surface analysis shows 1012 hPa high pressure extending all the way from the Gulf of Mexico northward into portions of Canada. Above the surface, 500 hPa height analysis depicts a cutoff low over southern California helping to build the downstream ridge centered over the Continental Divide. Additionally, an elongated, neutral tilt trough was centered over the East Coast.
734 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Strong low pressure over New England will continue moving away from the region. A cold front will bring another chance for active weather by the end of the week. Upper level trough remains over the region but showers have moved out of the area. Complex blocking pattern will begin to break down around the middle of the week. Pattern consist of an upper ridge over the central part of the country and upper trough over both the eastern states and the Desert Southwest. The trough over the eastern conus will slowly lift northeast through mid-week allowing the upper ridge to slide eastward. Dry weather will persist tonight trough Monday night.
737 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 VFR conditions through the TAF period under high pressure. After a relatively cool start this morning, we will see another day of temperatures a few degrees below normal in the low-mid 80s.
The central ridge axis of the block is located over the Great Plains and will allow warm and dry conditions to persist.
Cloud shield and lingering showers across southwest Idaho and far southeast Oregon this morning are associated with an upper trough over the area. Also updated to increase sky cover (mostly southwest ID) increase forecast winds for Baker county and the lower Snake Plain which will remain gusty through the day. The area resides near the periphery of an upper low centered in southern Calif and an upper trough near the ID panhandle. The split system will slowly shift east through tonight resulting in a drying trend as an upper ridge nudges in from Oregon. The ridge will also bring a warming trend through Monday with highs returning to near normal.
Another day of plentiful sunshine today as strong subsidence from a mid level ridge of high pressure influences area weather. Ridge axis is prog to shift east by late in the day with a more substantial increase in cirrus expected at that time.
842 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Drying out and remaining cool under increasing high pressure influences through Monday. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Clouds and remaining rain showers/mountain snow showers will exit this morning as upper level low pulls eastward. With a dry airmass in place, insolation will help the max temps along today wile 850mb temps reside in the low single digits. The temperatures tonight are easily there in the low to mid 30s. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
1054 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Drying out and remaining cool under increasing high pressure influences through Monday. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Clouds and remaining rain showers/mountain snow showers will exit this morning as upper level low pulls eastward. With a dry airmass in place, insolation will help the max temps along today wile 850mb temps reside in the low single digits. The temperatures tonight are easily there in the low to mid 30s. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
/Issued 319 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ High amplitude ridge continues to slowly translate across the Plains with several more days of warm and dry weather ahead. Upper low currently moving ashore southern California will make slow eastward progress and begin to influence the Southern Plains by mid week.
1032 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure prevailed across the Mid-State this morning, with chilly low temperatures in the middle to upper 30s at many locations. A few spots even slipped close to the freezing mark, with Allardt coming in with 33 degrees and Jamestown with 34. By late morning, temperatures, under a sunny sky, had warmed into the middle 50s to lower 60s, headed toward highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Sfc ridging influences along with NWLY flow aloft will support occasional passages of bkn ci, Thus, VFR conditions thru 08/12Z.
/Issued 415 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ Upper ridge shifting east away from the Panhandles today while the closed upper low over southern California continues to approach the forecast area this week. With 500 mb heights falling and increasing high level cloudiness with southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles today, went slightly cooler than MOS guidance for high temps today. Closed upper low to track slowly east and southeast across the northwest portions of Mexico and across the extreme southern portions of the southwestern states early this week before finally lifting north and east across the southern Rockies and northern portions of the forecast area around the middle of the week.
Clear skies and light winds tonight as high pressure builds over southern Lower Michigan. Despite nearly full sunshine, highs today in the lower to mid 50s will be 10-15 degrees below normal followed by a run at record lows tonight/Monday morning outside of metro Detroit.
Near models were not catching onto the warmer temperatures around KGGW and west. Templer Previous update - This morning, the surface analysis positions the cold front NE to SW just west of the Northeast Montana CWA. Temperatures to our west are cooler, so expect additional thunderstorms to develop more to the east today. Templer Previous discussion - Cold front extending from near Colstrip north to Swift Current bisecting Garfield and Valley counties early this morning. SOuth of that airmass is a closed low over the Baja and southern Arizona. Farther west another closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska.
The high amplitude 500mb ridge stretching from TX up through the western Dakotas and far northern Canada will build directly over the forecast area 03-18Z Monday.
948 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 With quiet weather under high pressure over the area, the forecast is going as progged. /issued 737 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017/ VFR conditions through the TAF period under high pressure. After a relatively cool start this morning, we will see another day of temperatures a few degrees below normal in the low-mid 80s.
828 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain precipitation chances early this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. A mid/upper trough should maintain rain chances across the area early this morning. Some of the higher elevations could see some light snow with cold advection, though any accumulation is expected to be minor.
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Sharp upper trough extends from southern Ontario into the Ohio Valley with strong northwest flow over the Plains. Meanwhile, lee troughing will strengthen which will allow for temps warming to near seasonal normals by the end of the week. There is still some model agreement in tracking some upper energy out of the northern/central Rockies Thu night into Fri and out across the high Plains.
1043 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the CWA with some thin CI floating by. Temperatures have dipped into the mid 30s over southwest SD near center of anticyclone. Today and Thursday, upper ridge remains in place over the western US with trough over the east.
1029 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A deepening upper level trough will swing slowly SE across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. This weather feature will act as the pathway for a few weak areas of low pressure to ripple northeastward along, and bring periods of rain from near the Interstate 99 corridor east across the Susquehanna Valley.
Not much change next 24 hours, with continued bouts of cloudiness and well below normal temps, as region remains under influence of anomalously deep upper trough and meridional/northerly flow.
Canadian high pressure is responsible for cool morning temperatures, and with light winds we will see readings again below average for today. This and weak warm advection will result in much warmer high temperatures.
1040 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cool weather with periodic shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Diurnally driven isolated showers may pop up this afternoon as upper troughing continues to dig over the region, however, have cut PoP values back as coverage looks to be limited and morning soundings showed a fair amount of dry air to overcome. Temperatures will max out around 10 degrees below normal with the anomalously deep trough overhead.
The upper trof will swing thru the area and help to initiate a bkn deck of CU today. Due to the CU coupled with the continued CAA, have trended temps at the warmer guidance for today. Have once again trended temps for tonight aob the cooler guidance.
801 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A deepening upper level trough will swing slowly SE across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. This weather feature will act as the pathway for a few weak areas of low pressure to ripple northeastward along, and bring periods of rain from near the Interstate 99 corridor east across the Susquehanna Valley.
A few strong to severe storms are still possible across southeast Georgia as the cold front approaches, though persistent cloud cover this morning could limit instability. Southwest winds today will become onshore beginning late tonight as a cold front shifts southeast across the waters.
The cold front is south and east of the forecast area, while a band of light post-frontal showers is located from Chambers County northeastward into Georgia. These are associated with longwave trough axis pushing east across the area, as well as the 850mb cold front. Currently watching the cold front slide through the area with an outflow boundary now along the coastline. At 1 am the cold front had just cleared the office and was generally along a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Anniston and sliding southward. Clearing areawide after 7 pm and temperatures will drop to the low 50s areawide, with even a few upper 40s in the normally cooler location across the far north.
The cool trof and cloud cover will keep temperatures below normal during this period, as highs are limited to the middle to upper 50s across the north, with lower to middle 60s across the south.
Upper high over the Intermountain region will shift slightly east through Thursday allowing moisture to spread into eastern Oregon from California. The area is expected to be between a ridge just to the east, and a trough moving in off the PACNW coast.
Much calmer weather is in place across Iowa as a large area of high pressure slides east into Iowa today. Steep northerly flow will remain in place today and will keep the thermal trough firmly entrenched across the region.
With high pressure slipping to the southeast tonight, light surface winds will turn to south and southwest overnight. This will help hold lows slightly warmer as well, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s. Intermediate range of the forecast will work to claw out of the deeper troughing over the Great Lakes, and with surface flow returning out of the west/southwest, will see a moderation in temps toward normal levels on Thursday. Will watch another piece of energy drop into the trough later Thursday, and this will back a frontal boundary southward into the region as jet entrance region slides through the western Great Lakes.
A cold front moving through the area this morning will bring signs of fall-like weather for the next few days.
Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECWMF/NAM solutions which predict the upper trough over the ERN CONUS to lift NE Thursday while an upper ridge builds to the N/NW of the CWA/MSA. The foregoing solutions continue to move the front, currently approaching the CWA from the north per MSAS, across the CWA/MSA today/tonight (in response to the foregoing upper trough.
1004 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Big and cool high pressure system now building into the Mid-Sate, with late morning temperatures only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
/issued 315 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017/ Upper ridge located over the Intermountain West as a deep trough over the east extends from Canada down to the Gulf. The center of the ridge should shift SE the next couple of days as a trough comes off the Pacific. A weak cold front moved through the region yesterday bringing slightly cooler temps. As of early this morning dewpts in the 40s were still spreading into the area and pushing out the higher dewpts. Temps should be cooler today with highs in the 80s.
Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the area from the northwest through the period. Northwesterly winds will relax to light and variable tonight and into Thursday as the high moves into the area.
Regardless, with the presence of an anamolously strong trough and mid/upper level southwest winds, expect at least scattered convection this afternoon.
533 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows laminar northerly flow over the Plains with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Winds will be very light today due to a ridge overhead at 850mb. Tonight a warmer air mass will be in place, causing lows to be a few degrees warmer than last night.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern into the central plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the western United States and trough over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with light winds. Ridge axis gradually shifts over the area this week bringing a warming trend and dry conditions. A wave passes to the north to start the upcoming week flattening the ridge, but at this time no precipitation in expected to develop from this.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Cold front that was responsible for showers and storms yesterday afternoon into the evening hours continues to push south across the ArkLaMiss region this morning. With the large upper trough still in place over the eastern half of the country, tonight should be very pleasant and a night to open the windows and enjoy the cooler air. Clear skies, light northerly wind, dewpoints in the upper 40s/around 50 all spell overnight lows in the lower 50s north of I-20 and mid 50s south of I-20. /28/ For the beginning of the period a strong fall like amplified trough will begin lifting to the east.
Marine influences have returned to the region and will persist through late week as an upper level low approaches the coast. A much cooler marine air mass has returned to the region overnight with low clouds spreading inland into the Salinas Valley and locally inland across the San Francisco Bay Area. Meanwhile, a closed mid/upper level low remains positioned about 275 miles off of the coast. The low is then forecast to slowly approach the central California coast late tonight into Thursday morning as a deeper trough begins to approach the Pacific Northwest resulting in light rain showers.
Really feeling like fall out the window at the moment, courtesy of anomalously deep upper troughing in place over much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Regardless, cloud trends will play a huge role the next few days with how warm or not temperatures end up, with some potential for a sneaky warmer day west of the Mississippi River on Thursday (pending cloud trends) as a warm front briefly works into the area and 925mb temps respond toward 16-20C (warmest by far off the GFS). However, that trend is reversed by Thursday night with low level ridging pretty much squarely overhead, with some of the colder spots likely dipping into the 30s with possibly even a little frost.
611 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Pleasant conditions are expected to continue as high pressure dominates our weather at the surface. Higher in the atmosphere, northwesterly flow dominates aloft as we are sandwiched between the large upper level trough moving east and large upper level ridge parked over the western US. Highs are expected to be in the low 70s with lows tonight into tomorrow morning in the mid 40s to low 50s. This, along with the western ridge somewhat nosing over the area, will help warm temperatures into the upper 70s for Thursday and then low 80s for the remainder of the period.
Dry conditions and generally light winds look to persist through Thursday as ridging remains over the Northern Rockies. Highs today will be in the lower 80s across western and central areas, with 70s near the Dakotas.
High pressure will remain in place over North Central and Southwest Montana today and Thursday, which will lead to warming temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and continued very dry conditions. Overnight low temperatures in valleys and cold prone areas could fall below freezing, with warmer temperatures expected across the plains.
The combination of the moisture from newly formed Tropical Storm Katia in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the approach of an early season cold front will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley airports through early this evening. Light north winds are expected tonight as high pressure settles across the region.
1023 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cold front moves east of the Appalachians today. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind the front for the remainder of the week. Cold front is still hung up on the mountains this morning, but should push off well to the east by late morning to early afternoon and showers will come to an end. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier air today, but lots of clouds still today with large field of cold air stratocu developing behind the front with upper trough overhead. Tonight will feel like a cool Fall night with upper 40s for lows in most areas and upper 30s in the higher elevation valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph Counties.
Strong and warm upper ridge will remain in place over the Great Basin and intermountain west through the period.
1225 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cool weather with periodic shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Diurnally driven isolated showers may pop up this afternoon as upper troughing continues to dig over the region, however, have cut PoP values back as coverage looks to be limited and morning soundings showed a fair amount of dry air to overcome. Temperatures will max out around 10 degrees below normal with the anomalously deep trough overhead.
500 DM trough axis currently over forecast area and associated cold pool of -20C temps should provide for steep lapse rates today and lots of developing cumulus - particularly along and northeast of I-74. A strong 553 dm 500 mb low near Sault Ste Marie Canada with a deep upper level trof extending SSW over IL and mid MS river valley will continue influencing IL's weather next couple of days. Strong upper level trof axis shifts east to the IN/OH border early this evening and into the eastern Ohio river valley by daybreak Thu. Lows Thu night mostly in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s near the IN border.
Early this morning, an upper trough was carved out across the eastern half of the country with an upper high/ridge over the west. This upper trough will tend to deepen a bit as another lobe of energy drops south southeast out of northern IL into the Ohio Valley today.
/issued 316 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017/ Plenty of cool, and dry air as evidenced by water vapor imagery, had filtered in behind the cold front from yesterday morning. Temperatures across the forecast region were running approximately 10-15 degrees cooler this morning than yesterday, which will make for a cool start to school today. As winds turn more southerly tomorrow, and we feel the effects of a slowing advancing ridge, temps will warm a bit closer to seasonal norms. NW flow tomorrow afternoon will allow thunderstorms to develop over portions of southeastern CO and the high terrain of NM.
Latest upper air analysis shows laminar northerly flow over the Plains with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Winds will be very light today due to a ridge overhead at 850mb. Tonight a warmer air mass will be in place, causing lows to be a few degrees warmer than last night.
/issued 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017/ Strong high pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week.
I upped the PoPs in our northeast, closer to where the upper low is centered and where the steepest lapse rates will be found.
As a result, dry weather and cooler temperatures will prevail. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Dew points should slowly drop through the day as high pressure and dry air continues to work its way into the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 53 75 54 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 51 73 52 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 51 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 48 69 48 / 20 0 10 0.
The remainder of the forecast still looks on track; showers and thunderstorms remain likely from Tallahassee northeastward into SW/south central Georgia this afternoon as the cold front moves through these areas. Highs will be in the lower- mid 80s across most of our area, and will likely remain in the upper 70s in parts of SE Alabama behind the cold front.