Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROF COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. TO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS OF NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT PROBABLY WONT FEEL ANY WARMER AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEHIND EXITING WAVE.
ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR THE EAST TONIGHT FROM BAKER TO LAME DEER WHERE BEST QG FORCING IS EXPECTED AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE STRANDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF WRAP AROUND SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
1053 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015 COLORADO IS NOW AT THE BOTTOM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND THE BULK OF TROUGH/S SHEAR. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE RGN AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NRN CO TONIGHT. ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN COLD HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTN SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LOWER TO MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF SRN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE NO SNOW COVER EXISTS.
Lows tonight will again dip below freezing for most of West Central Texas, especially along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, where lows in the upper 20s look likely. For Thursday, another weak cold front will bring winds from the north to West Central Texas, along with cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs, mainly in the lower to mid 40s, look reasonable for tomorrow, given surface cold air advection and limited sunshine.
/ISSUED 424 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING THE COOLER SURFACE HAS LED TO CLOUDS THICKENING AND PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE COASTAL AREAS WELL NORTH INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SUBSIDENT REGION FOLLOWS AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOWER DECK OF THE STRATUS LATE THURSDAY.
1042 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 Weak surface ridging evident over the Central/Southern Plains will maintain unseasonably cool temperatures over the region today with light wind. 16Z temperatures running slightly warmer than this time yesterday and ongoing high temperature forecast appears to be in line. Made some minor changes to cloud cover, hourly temperatures through today, and removed morning freezing fog from far nern OK and nwrn AR with this morning's update.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STORM COULD MOVE INTO REGION BRINGING CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD MORNING WITH MANY LOW TEMPS ALREADY AT OR HEADED TOWARDS FREEZING. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOL WITH MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLOW NORMAL OR ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YDY.
The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s). Stratus expected to lower quickly again just after sunset, with freezing fog again possibly affecting aviation operations at GCK and DDC as soon as 03z, as suggested by NAM guidance.
KEPT THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY. WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
1145 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW JUST TO OUR SE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR AND RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS MAY MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTIANS.
1114 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough dominating much the Nation early this morning, with the mean trough axis to our west over the Rockies.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST.
Although some breaks in the low clouds have been noted across nern OK and nwrn AR this morning, there still exists abundant MVFR ceilings across most of the region. /ISSUED 1042 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ Weak surface ridging evident over the Central/Southern Plains will maintain unseasonably cool temperatures over the region today with light wind. 16Z temperatures running slightly warmer than this time yesterday and ongoing high temperature forecast appears to be in line. Made some minor changes to cloud cover, hourly temperatures through today, and removed morning freezing fog from far nern OK and nwrn AR with this morning's update.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STAY TAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS AT GLH/GWO WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS BY 31/00Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ELSEWHERE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
as the GFS and E The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s).
UPPER LEVEL MAP SHOWS STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN. THE REST OF THE UNITED STATES IS UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES SWINGING THROUGH IT TO THE NORTHEAST. A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH HAS STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO NUMEROUS POPS DESPITE THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THAT LITTLE PRECIP WILL BE OBSERVED FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GENERAL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
2016 BEGINS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
109 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AND THEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STORM COULD MOVE INTO REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE, LOWS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70.
356 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AM.
142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. AND BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
AN U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PROBABLY DISGUISING THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST.
347 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S. BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND RIDGE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER.
322 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 248 AM CDT ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 DEGREES NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
152 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
218 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 248 AM CDT ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER.
227 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE TODAY AND COVER NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY JULY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
KNOWING THE NORTHERN AND/OR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL A BIT DICEY AS ONLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE IN THE FIRST PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF GETTING WET WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE CONTINUE TO LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINED ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
202 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WHILE INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY TODAY. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WITH A VERY SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS.
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE. CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN. WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY. AS SOME LATE HEATING BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH YIELDS JUST ABOUT AS GOOD A CHANCE IF NOT BETTER THERE AS IN SERN WV. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A TRAILING UPPER S/W TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES SAT.
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 29C. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING SAT. THEN DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES E SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT S THROUGH N MT ON SAT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW SAT NIGHT/S FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. A MORE ACTIVE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER THE TUE NIGHT COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS.
AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO HARBORS. BUT POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ELONGATED RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
AREA ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI/ERN MN/NE IA. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT SOLUTION GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER WAVE AND DEALING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS GREATER AND CHANCES OF PRECIP AS WELL.
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS EARLIER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
300 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
317 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS WELL.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
309 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES ACROSS THE AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE. CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN. WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS WELL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK REASONABLE. UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES RENEWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND INTO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVE. ROSE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW WOULD EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN TSRA CHANCES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER. STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT. AIR MASS DRIES SOMEWHAT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED/THU AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN ACTIVE EARLY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER TROF MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ A morning height analysis reveals a persistent pattern across the Conus with an upper ridge nosing into our region from the west and a large trough stretching from the Great Lakes down to Florida.
FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDS ALONG ABOUT 82W LONGITUDE WITH CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
410 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015 (Today and Tonight) The upper high, currently centered over the Great Basin and Four Corners area, will retract a bit to the west with its influence weakened somewhat over our area. This will allow a weak disturbance on the eastern periphery of this high, currently approaching the Texas Panhandle, to move southeast into our northern counties by late this evening or early tonight. Lows tonight are expected to be in mostly in the lower 70s. Upper level high over the Great Basin and pull back slightly farther to the west. At the surface, a weak cold front will slide into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, generating convection to the north. Upper level ridge will build into the area again for the weekend and any chance for storms will diminish again.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 50H RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
129 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING UP FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH COVERED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WILDCARD IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
248 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 248 AM CDT ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER.
THE ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT.
326 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TYPE COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS REMNANTS OF IT MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SE COAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN AND NW FLOW ALOFT.
501 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
500 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 MID 70S ON AVERAGE AND JUST A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING UNDER A DEVELOPING MID DECK AND CIRRUS FROM AN MCS OVER N AR AND S MO.
324 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 A morning height analysis reveals a persistent pattern across the Conus with an upper ridge nosing into our region from the west and a large trough stretching from the Great Lakes down to Florida.
00Z UPPER AIR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. BUT A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE HIGHEST NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO /CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL DISTURBANCE/.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH THE SMOKE ALOFT SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN WI WILL BECOME ORIENTED W-E ACROSS SRN WI TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE TNT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A CORRIDOR OF FASTER FLOW BRINGING A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING NUMBER OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE REFLECTION AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY.