Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will move across the Great Lakes today, shifting winds to the southeast. /issued 341 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Deep South Texas will reside on the subsident side of a deep trough digging across the Great Lakes and southeast states with high pressure continuing over the Desert Southwest. East to southeast flow at the surface will return this afternoon, allowing daytime highs to warm into the lower 90s Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Slight moisture advection right at the surface will cause dew points to increase into the lower to mid 60s.
718 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region this afternoon with an isolated shower possible. High pressure will move overhead Sunday.
Some near freezing temperatures have been observed, but they are much more isolated than last night. Another cooler overnight period with temperature early Sunday morning once again in the 30s. As with previous nights the cloud cover is the biggest factor in getting temperatures below freezing. Clearing skies are expected, but how soon they occur will be key in determining the low temperatures. So expect another cooler than average day on Sunday.
529 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge along the west coast with northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with a clipper diving through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, cold front is working through western SD. Cooler with breezy northwest winds expected today with highs mainly in the 60s. Warmer temps then expected Sunday as short wave ridge crosses the Northern Plains and southerly winds become breezy.
906 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Dry today under high pressure. Rain chances will return later on Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Building high pressure will allow for a dry day with decreasing cloud cover. Increasing deep layer moisture and ascent ahead of the trough/low should result in the development of scattered showers Sunday and Sunday night.
605 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A series of disturbances will pass across the region today through Sunday as a mean H7 trof axis ESE from the Upper Midwest across the MS River Valley to over the Ohio Valley.
River fog will dissipate this morning with VFR conditions at all sites through the period as high pressure remains across the region. This will keep temperatures slightly warmer than the past could nights with min temperatures near seasonal normals.
Weak cold front Sunday will likely move into the northern areas near the end of this forecast. Upper level westerly flow across the area will become northerly on Sunday as another upper level trough swings east across the central plains and into the Ohio valley and upper level high pressure remains in place across the western U. At the surface a weak cold front will move into south central Texas on Sunday. This will lead to slightly warmer low temperatures Sunday morning.
644 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 (Today and tonight) Above normal temperatures will occur today, ahead of a weak cold front that will affect the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight behind the front, with overnight lows in the mid 50s.
Warm temperatures of 10-15 degrees above normal are planned for today with the upper ridge of high pressure moving over the region. Smoke moved around the ridge yesterday and surface visibilities in central Idaho show smoky and hazy conditions. Sunday is supposed to be even warmer than today with afternoon breezes, but smoke may inhibit some of the warming, especially in central Idaho. The ridge is expected to rebound during the beginning of the week, and depending on how much smoke enters the Northern Rockies, a warming trend will return. High pressure remains over the Northern Rockies and the upper ridge will move over Idaho and western Montana today.
Look for highs in the low to mid 80s by mid afternoon. Sunday will be much of the same, except winds will turn northerly as another weak cold front moves through the local area Sunday afternoon. Another surge of dry and cooler air mass in the wake of the front will keep local conditions very similar to what SE Texas has had these past few days. Cold front pushing off the coast Sunday night will bring both clouds and another round of drier and slightly cooler air to the region.
Clear skies otherwise prevailed across much of the eastern third of the lower-48, or from the TX/LA, then northeastward to the Mid Atlantic. 9 AM temperatures after a rather chilly start for early October, have risen into the low/mid 50s with light winds. A theta-E ridge aloft will be present along and ahead of the trough. The trough weakening upon its arrival and limited deep layer moisture are limiting factors for precipitation.
839 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A weak low pressure system is forecast to track east through the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, bringing the next chance of rain. High pressure will then build back into the area for the beginning of the week. We could see at least some erosion of the lower clouds from the southwest this morning before some additional mid and high level clouds spread back in from the west by this afternoon. Lows tonight will be warmer, in the mid and upper 40s. This will perturb a weak area of low pressure which will also move east. Lows Sunday night will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
A pre-frontal trof should develop this afternoon causing a NW wind shift at CNM, HOB and PEQ. /issued 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ WV imagery shows a highly amplified upper ridge over the west coast, and a large trough over the eastern CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. A cold front approaching the panhandles is forecast to fropa our northern zones by 18Z today, but diurnal heating will likely hang it up, and it'll resume progression after peak heating.
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region today. Low pressure will develop over the central United States tonight and as it moves through the Ohio Valley will push a cold front and a chance of showers through the area.
/Issued 250 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through tonight. The high pressure center will move off the Middle Atlantic coast early Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and west.
Height falls in advance of trough amplification will lead to elevated warm advection and wave of low pressure on Sunday. Mid clouds will continue to clear out this morning under thickening high clouds ahead of the next low pressure system. The diffuse high pressure will slide eastward through the afternoon helping keep conditions dry. A strengthening vorticity max will move through the main trough while the main axis slides into the western Great Lakes. Showers continue into Sunday afternoon before conditions start to improve throughout the evening with the loss of larger scale forcing as the trough axis slides east of the Michigan. Another day of below normal temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected on Sunday as the cold thermal trough lingers over the region.
Late this morning a cold front will move south through the forecast area resulting in winds shifting to the north and becoming breezy. /issued 151 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ Early morning water vapor showing today's cold front just through CO and headed southward towards the CWA. A bit of moisture tries to sneak into the lower levels of the atmosphere with the front, but the stable northwest flow aloft will keep the moisture from developing into anything but clouds. High amplitude ridge starts to flatten as zonal flow becomes established across the Pacific NW and southwestern Canada on Sunday.
943 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure builds over the area today, then moves offshore late tonight through Sunday. Low pressure approaches the Delaware and New Jersey coasts Sunday night, but stays over the Western Atlantic.
(Today and tonight) The cold front in central and southwest Kansas will move southeast into northwest Oklahoma this morning and continue pushing through the state through the day.
717 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will build eastward across Pennsylvania today. A sharp upper level trough will then lift through the area late Sunday or Sunday night.
The forecast is on track in the near term with high pressure in control of the weather over the ArkLaMiss region.
Sunday high pressure will be gliding southeast through the day and a shallow upper level ridge begins to move in from the west. Southerly winds will begin to flow back into the region by the afternoon and our overall temperatures will start trending back up with highs back in the lower 50s.
405 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Sunday.
expecting clouds to break up quicker than guidance has been suggesting and allowing temps to get a few deg warmer than previously thought. a few deg warmer in the northeast where it is already clear. Skies clear tonight allowing temperatures to fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s with most areas below freezing.
605 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will generally keep cool and dry conditions through the weekend. However, low pressure just off the Atlantic coastline could allow for some isolated showers near the I-95 corridor on Sunday. High pressure is currently centered over Ohio and it will continue to drift east through the next 24 hours. Highs should be very similar to yesterday's temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south.
323 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Models continue to show the persistent upper level ridge axis remaining nearly stationary across the intermountain west.
Cold front has entered NE OK and is expected to push south of the forecast area later tonight.
1116 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge along the west coast with northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with a clipper diving through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, cold front is working through western SD. Cooler with breezy northwest winds expected today with highs mainly in the 60s. Warmer temps then expected Sunday as short wave ridge crosses the Northern Plains and southerly winds become breezy.
240 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 As mid level troughiness pivots southeastward into the Ohio Valley, weak ripples of energy will rotate light precipitation across portions of the region tonight into Sunday morning.
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Extensive cloud cover remains in place this afternoon as a trough swings through.
229 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure building in this afternoon brings quiet weather tonight with lake effect rain showers coming to an end.
254 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will prevail over the area into Sunday with warm, dry and breezy conditions expected. Temperatures still will be somewhat of a roller coaster as a a few cold fronts cross the area every couple of days. While these fronts will result in some cooler temperatures and a wind shift, not expecting any precipitation.
Upper level moisture from Gamma continues to provide cloud cover to the extreme far southeast county warning area, but otherwise, sunny skies and high pressure continue over a majority of the state. /Issued 250 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through tonight. The high pressure center will move off the Middle Atlantic coast early Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and west.
118 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the first week of October, bringing warm afternoons, dry conditions, light winds, and chilly mornings. Cooler and wetter conditions are possible going into the second week of October. We continue to see signals in longer range models/ensembles for wet and cooler weather starting the weekend of Oct 10-11. This is likely due to what is currently Hurricane Marie, how this system may evolve, and whether remnant moisture will be entrained into upstream troughs. We see the remnant moisture of Marie combine with the upstream troughs.
A pre-frontal trof should develop this afternoon, causing a northwest wind shift at CNM, HOB, and PEQ. Gusty northeast winds at all TAF sites this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through around 04/00Z. /issued 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ WV imagery shows a highly amplified upper ridge over the west coast, and a large trough over the eastern CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. A cold front approaching the panhandles is forecast to fropa our northern zones by 18Z today, but diurnal heating will likely hang it up, and it'll resume progression after peak heating.
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 The main forecasting concern for tonight will be low-level stratus and fog development along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. As it does, the cold front will push across the region. Per the RAP analysis, visibility will reduce below one mile for the higher terrain areas along the plateau, while some of the SREF/HREF progs are less aggressive on reduced visibility but are equally keen on the extent of low stratus. For Sunday, mid-level heights will hastily increase as the 500-mb trough axis shifts east of the Ozarks. The NBM is suggesting afternoon highs in the lower 60s for Sunday.
Today through Sunday Ridging along the West Coast will keep overall northwest flow continuing across the state, but the ridge flattens out on Sunday, shifting the flow more from the west. Cooler airmass behind yesterday's cold front will keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, right around normal in the upper 60s to around 70. Westerly flow aloft will translate to the surface on Sunday, bringing drier and warmer conditions back to the state through the afternoon.
1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 (Today and tonight) The cold front in central and southwest Kansas will move southeast into northwest Oklahoma this morning and continue pushing through the state through the day.
254 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Narrow band of accas/sprinkles behind surface cold front across southern Kansas will continue to move southeast and out of the area early this evening.
1241 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will bring cool and mainly quiet weather to NY and PA today, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over upstate NY. A warm front will spread a few light showers across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture trapped beneath a weak high pressure dome will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region through early afternoon. After a cool start to the day, a warm front will move through NY and PA with isolated to scattered rain showers.
A little warmer in Idaho Sunday but a couple degrees cooler in eastern Oregon.
Upper level ridge east of the area today. Upper level trough will move through tonight into Sunday.
Morning update: 12Z KOTX sounding showing very pronounced low level morning inversion lid at about 1200 feet AGL followed by a second subsidence inversion associated with the persistent high pressure ridge with a lid slightly higher at about 2900 feet AGL. Otherwise haze remains in the forecast either due to this low level accumulation of particulate and/or California fire smoke particulate lofted higher above the subsidence inversion (at about 10-12K MSL or so that may reappear overhead (and not have an impact on near surface air quality).
Clear and sunny skies will prevail through today - the state remains sandwiched in the subsidence zone between an upper level trough extending down the Mississippi River and moisture from Tropical Storm Gamma in the Gulf. The frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough will push through the state late Sunday.
235 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Clear skies and dry weather remains on tap this afternoon, as the persistent ridge of high pressure spins over the western CONUS. The next Pacific NW trough begins to dig along the Canadian coast Sunday, flattening the ridge of high pressure overhead. Otherwise, dry air under the ridge returns clear skies and deep mixing brings breezy afternoon conditions.
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Broad troughing aloft will flatten by mid-week, allowing temperatures to at least briefly warm to above normal. The trough and associated cooler temperatures may become re-established later in the week. Min temps will drop below normal overnight and while the higher elevations could observe frost during the early morning hours, expect temps elsewhere across the mountains to remain warm enough to keep any frost concerns at bay.
206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A weak low pressure system is forecast to track east through the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, bringing the next chance of rain. High pressure will then build back into the area for the beginning of the week. We could see at least some erosion of the lower clouds from the southwest this morning before some additional mid and high level clouds spread back in from the west by this afternoon. Lows tonight will be warmer, in the mid and upper 40s. This will perturb a weak area of low pressure which will also move east. Lows Sunday night will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
346 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight and slowly move east of the area by Sunday night.
1140 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE A back door cold front has pushed south and west to the central mt chain late this morning. Upper level high pressure will strengthen over NM thru Sunday with veering wind profiles and clear skies. Cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected behind the front.
An upper ridge to the west of the CWA will slowly move east across the area during the week while weakening somewhat. Cooler temperatures and higher humidities will reduce the fire danger this afternoon.
157 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest gets shoved a bit into Montana Sunday while at the surface, a trough over Alberta begins it's drop to the southeast. This will allow warmer air to begin moving into the CWA Sunday as surface winds increase from the south then southwest.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Much advertised cold front is currently oriented from near a LBB, OKC. Not much in the way of cloud cover ahead of this feature across the Middle Red River Valley and despite returning southerly low level winds, there will not be sufficient low level moisture to interact with the cold front tonight. That leaves mid level moisture associated with the longwave trough to our northwest which will help drive this cold front south and east overnight. Should see milder temperatures but still on the cool side, especially across our eastern third for tonight and slightly milder temperatures in the wake of the cold front for Sunday.
1154 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 (Today and tonight) Above normal temperatures will occur today, ahead of a weak cold front that will affect the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight behind the front, with overnight lows in the mid 50s.
142 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show persistent, deep trough centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes slowly pushing eastward. Ridge over the Pacific NW will continue to spread eastward and flatten as it approaches the Northern Plains. Expect warm air advection to begin in earnest overnight tonight resulting in warmer temperatures tomorrow as most areas push back into the 70s.
Sunday will be sunny, windy and warmer. NMM suggests some mid level cloudiness lingering Sunday morning as weak southwest flow becomes re-established, pulling warmer high terrain air air into western Kansas.
high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, while an upper trough sits over the Missouri Valley. Highs on Sunday will be warmer, with 70s to lower 80s across the region. On Tue and upper ridge builds over the area and remains in place through Wed. Thu and into early Fri, the ridge gets flattened over the area as a disturbance moves through the flow aloft. The upper ridge then rebuilds over the area on Fri and then shifts east of the state on Sat as an upper trof moves onto the west coast.
900 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Another warm Autumn day is forecast across the Inland Northwest as upper ridging remains over the region. Expect highs to rise into the low to mid 80s in many areas with some low 90s reading possible across southern and central Oregon.
An upper/mid level ridge will hold over the area through the period.
AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Another warm Autumn day is forecast across the Inland Northwest as upper ridging remains over the region. Expect highs to rise into the low to mid 80s in many areas with some low 90s reading possible across southern and central Oregon.
1136 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Models continue to show the persistent upper level ridge axis remaining nearly stationary across the intermountain west.
215 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure builds in tonight before moving east late Sunday.
1109 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region this afternoon with an isolated shower possible. High pressure will move overhead Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure is firmly planted over the western U. as a closed upper-level high pressure system has established itself over southern California. The ridge will flatten on Sunday as pressure gradients tighten, resulting in increased northwesterly winds.
Winds out the north behind the passing cold front gusting to around 30 MPH at times will diminish as we go through tonight as main H500 height gradient begins to relax. A weak PVA strip moving along trough in northern Oklahoma moving to the southeast may generate a shower in northern and central Oklahoma, but should stay well to the east of the Panhandles. This will advect some warmer H850 temperatures into the region with high temperatures from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Showers will finally move out of the our area by about 3Z, but the cloudy conditions will continue overnight as we transition out of a trough and into the approaching ridge from the northwest. The lingering clouds will help keep temperatures a little warmer overnight, but there is still potential for widespread frost Sunday morning in the northeast as the high pressure moves into northern Iowa from central Minnesota and cloud cover diminishes from northeast to southwest tomorrow morning. Between the departing high and an approaching cold front from the west, a tight pressure gradient will set up and this will result in gusty winds from the southwest.
An upper trof over the eastern and central states with a slight positive tilt becomes oriented over the eastern states during the period.
Light winds and dry weather hold through daytime today as high pressure over Ontario slowly slides east ahead of a developing low in the Midwest. This low will move into lower MI late tonight/Sunday. Mid clouds will continue to clear out this morning under thickening high clouds ahead of the next low pressure system. The diffuse high pressure will slide eastward through the afternoon helping keep conditions dry. A strengthening vorticity max will move through the main trough while the main axis slides into the western Great Lakes. Showers continue into Sunday afternoon before conditions start to improve throughout the evening with the loss of larger scale forcing as the trough axis slides east of the Michigan. Another day of below normal temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected on Sunday as the cold thermal trough lingers over the region.
Minimal warm air advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for ample cooling overnight with lows dropping into the low to mid 30. Weak warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 16 to 20 degree C range will push into western Nebraska on Sunday allowing for warmer surface temperatures to develop. Further east, cooler air will remain with highs only in the mid 60s for areas east of US-183.
1249 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure over the region will continue to maintain clear skies and light winds.