Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Today will be the end of the recent stretch of a near persistent forecasts with 00z soundings sampling the seasonably strong upper jet spreading into the Great Basin marking a more active regime set to develop around the periphery of the upper ridge centered over the southwestern U.
Freezing levels are high, around 16000 ft. The higher PoPs are across our central and east-central counties, with lower rain chances north into the southern Big Country and south to the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
The ridge centered near the 4 Corners region of the country will slowly deepen and expand eastward. 9" as drier air mixed into the lower and mid layers.
A wave of low pressure continues to move east along the boundary and and is currently across the low country of GA/SC. /Issued 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020/ The tropical, mesoscale, low pressure system driving the current weather pattern continues to meander around east central Georgia with satellite imagery currently centering it around Greensboro, GA. A moist, profile in the low-to-mid levels of the atmosphere combined with low mid-level lapse rates will make severe thunderstorms difficult to develop this afternoon, but widespread light showers and training lines of heavy showers and storms should paint the forecast area this afternoon before fading into tonight. The flow on the backside of the low becomes NNE and our pops return to chance to account for afternoon convection.
930 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Cooler weather will continue through Wednesday before high pressure strengthens across the Southwest late in the week and brings increasing heat again. Temperatures could reach the 115 to 120 degree range in the lower deserts this weekend, with some temperatures above 100 degrees in the Inland Empire. A broad long-wave trough covered the northeast Pacific and most of the western 1/3 of the US while a ridge extended from the central US southwest to Baja California. The longwave trough will continue over the NE Pacific through the weekend while the ridge builds west over the Southwest. The ridge will bring gradually increasing heat Thu- Sun, with some 850 MB temps possibly exceeding 30 deg C this weekend.
Lee troughing will continue, which will lead to breezy southerly winds throughout the day. Will convective outflows impact highs?! It seems the meso models are trending to a cooler solution with highs in the northeastern zones cooler. Did go a little cooler with 90s for much of the area and low 100s along the Oklahoma border. Have the highest pops in the east.
At 500 mb, a broad ridge has helped dampen thunderstorm activity. The pattern changes by mid-to-late week as the 500- mb ridge becomes more amplified. This will place the Ozarks on the eastern periphery of the ridge as upper flow veers west- northwest. The first of these thunderstorm complexes will approach the region early Thursday morning along the MUCAPE gradient/Theta-e ridge.
Extremely low Relative Humidity values are expected once again, with values in the lower single digits possible in particularly hot, baked valley locations. Expect similar afternoon highs across the board with only a few afternoon cumulus clouds in the higher terrain.
The pattern continues we have a split flow with zonal flow aloft to our north and in that northern branch a upper low is starting to approach from the west. However, the southern part of the US has an upper high in the west and a upper trough in the east. However, the northern branch's upper low progresses east and interacts with the eastern upper trough.
910 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday as low pressure approaches the Carolina coast.
A weak upper ridge will provide generally dry conditions across the region today. Another upper trough will move across the area on Thursday for a return of showers and cooler temperatures.
422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 A front will push through the area today, the front will move through the northwest Sandhills during the day before peak heating has been reached keeping temperatures across the northwest Sandhills slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s.
Area of low pressure will move off the Carolina coast Today. The combination of troughing around this low, diurnal heating and upper waves will provide for numerous showers and storms through this afternoon.
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Temperatures are running a degree or two cooler than at this time yesterday. The pattern continues we have a split flow with zonal flow aloft to our north and in that northern branch a upper low is starting to approach from the west. However, the southern part of the US has an upper high in the west and a upper trough in the east. However, the northern branch's upper low progresses east and interacts with the eastern upper trough.
517 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Main forecast concern will be the intensity and areal coverage of potential thunderstorm activity across the high plains, but also across portions of south central Wyoming. Believe this inconsistency is due to two factors (a) models drying the boundary layer way too quick, which is typical this time of the year; (b) models now showing the center of the upper level high further south than previous runs.
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan will produce southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area today. While the most likely place for thunderstorm development will be in the area of highest low level moisture along and near the surface front over south central South Dakota, low level convergence will also aid the development of a few thunderstorms along the inverted trough over the Black Hills this afternoon.
809 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Deep moisture is in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the coast. A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward across the Carolinas today. Continued to indicate the highest pops east.
/Issued 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ Today will be the end of the recent stretch of a near persistent forecasts with 00z soundings sampling the seasonably strong upper jet spreading into the Great Basin marking a more active regime set to develop around the periphery of the upper ridge centered over the southwestern U.
Expect mainly sunny skies but cool temperatures today behind an exiting cold front. Thursday will be another sunny and dry day with temperatures rising into the 80s under a strengthening ridge of high pressure.
/Issued 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ Deep moisture remains in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the Carolina coast, with a trailing boundary remaining across the forecast area. A weak upper trough over the Mississippi Valley this morning will shift slowly eastward through this afternoon. Atwell Messy NW flow pattern in place for the first half of the extended as strong upper ridging takes a hold of the southwestern states and weak driving remains in place over our area.
630 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 A front will push through the area today, the front will move through the northwest Sandhills during the day before peak heating has been reached keeping temperatures across the northwest Sandhills slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s.
In southeast Texas the upper level ridge has returned. The upper level ridge will spread across southern Louisiana over the next several days.
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday as low pressure approaches the SC coast.
Morning clouds will give way to sunny skies and somewhat warmer weather today.
/issued 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb ridge centered over the Desert SW and NW Mexico begins to build and expand eastward through the short term and beyond. Southerly flow strengthens today and Thursday as a mid-layer low pressure trough emerges over the Rockies and tracks over the Plains.
The mid-upper level weather pattern will remain very weak today into Thursday, as we remain between a flat ridge (and main westerlies) to the north over the Great Lakes region, and a broad trof of low pressure located over the southeastern states.
Line is moving to the southeast within west-northwest flow between mid- level ridging extending east from the central Gulf across southern Florida and low pressure near the South Carolina coast. This will support continued generally westerly flow, with deep moisture being pulled into the Florida Peninsula behind the low.
Several observations earlier this morning recorded the strong gusts along with temperature jumps a good 10+ degrees with some locales reaching the low 90s. The vigorous upper trough associated with multiple rounds of active weather across the region the last couple days will continue to churn eastward across south central Canada today. By this time, the sfc cold front should be moving through the eastern portion of our forecast area.
Actual temperatures were running a bit warmer than the forecast through the mid-morning, so hourly temperatures were raised over the next few hours. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 91 72 92 / 50 30 50 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 92 72 91 / 30 20 50 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 92 71 91 / 30 20 50 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 90 68 89 / 30 20 40 20 70.
Afternoon temps should climb into the low 90s, though some spots likely to remain in the upper 80s as early day storms prevent peak daytime heating. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s.
The upper level pattern becomes fairly flat today as ridging begins to rebound in the wake of a departing trough. The Delta breeze has weakened significantly, with current temperatures 4 to 7 degrees warmer at 2 am than the same time yesterday. Northerly winds have developed over the northern Sacramento Valley, and this has kept Redding at a warm 78 degrees, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
316 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Much of the low level moisture has been shunted east after yesterdays frontal passage. Yet, an upper low still sits over southern Canada creating strong westerly mid-level flow over our region.
330 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan will produce southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area today. While the most likely place for thunderstorm development will be in the area of highest low level moisture along and near the surface front over south central South Dakota, low level convergence will also aid the development of a few thunderstorms along the inverted trough over the Black Hills this afternoon.
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Deep moisture is in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the coast. A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward across the Carolinas today. Continued to indicate the highest pops east.
246 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Currently, an upper level low is centered over the Northern Rockies in Canada, with a trough extending southward through the Inter- Mountain west, with an upper ridge over the Central Plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary extends across the Eastern Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle, with a dryline/lee trof extending through the Black Hills. Winds will decrease later this evening with lows falling into the lower 50s to lower 60s.
If it does it may slow the formation of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front late in the day Thursday. Freezing levels and LCL heights are rather high, so the main threat seems to be strong winds and very heavy rain. Heat indices in the low to mid 90s are likely in most places.
The overall pattern will begin to gradually change heading more into Thu, as the gen weakness aloft begins to lift nwd up the Atlantic Coast and an upper trough pattern digs across the Great Lakes into the Midwest states. This will also allow afternoon highs to climb predom into the upper 80s/near 90F, before temps fall into the lower 70s for most locations early Fri. With the upper trough pattern continuing to dig into the OH Valley on Fri, an active NW flow pattern is still xpcted to develop across much of the region.
It's another hot and humid day thanks to that upper level ridge still nosing in from the southwest and southerly surface flow. Temperatures are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices upper 90s to low 100s. The pattern starts to shift tonight as the upper level ridge flattens over our area and retreats back to the southwest. The other is where will the weak cold front be in the afternoon and will there be any residual outflow boundaries at play. Given the storm chances, cold front, and cloud cover, temperatures and heat indices will be slightly cooler tomorrow.
It will however reduce of rain chance Mon, and especially Tue and Wed, as a strong upper ridge builds in.
A typical cloud line cycle lasts for 1-2 hours and are most common over the Lower Keys, with the greater land area there. The lobe of high pressure over the central Gulf will expand a bit, with light low-mid level northwest flow overspreading the Keys.
1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 A front will push through the area today, the front will move through the northwest Sandhills during the day before peak heating has been reached keeping temperatures across the northwest Sandhills slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s.
Not much has changed with the guidance overall; a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, with 500 mb heights about 600 dm centered over north-central NM by the weekend, and just slightly lower over us.
Temperatures are expected to continue climbing into the low to mid 90s across the region by this afternoon.
Combined with surface dew points in the low 50s (possibly becoming upper 40s this evening), MUCAPE will be low (>1000 J/kg). A cold front associated with the upper level circulation will push through the forecast area overnight. In the post-frontal air mass tomorrow, relatively cooler highs in the 70s to low 80s are forecast with breezy west/northwest winds.
/issued 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ Temperatures are running a degree or two cooler than at this time yesterday. The pattern continues we have a split flow with zonal flow aloft to our north and in that northern branch a upper low is starting to approach from the west. However, the southern part of the US has an upper high in the west and a upper trough in the east. However, the northern branch's upper low progresses east and interacts with the eastern upper trough.
1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan will produce southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area today. While the most likely place for thunderstorm development will be in the area of highest low level moisture along and near the surface front over south central South Dakota, low level convergence will also aid the development of a few thunderstorms along the inverted trough over the Black Hills this afternoon.
Hot and humid today as the subtropical ridge continues to build and strengthen over the region. High temperatures for tomorrow will be a degree or two warmer, although dew points will likely be a degree or two cooler in the afternoon thanks to better mixing.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms should arrive Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the north central U. Behind this cold front, temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend. Main upper level ridge over the OH to IN and IL area. Best CAPE over region over eastern IL, so expect the higher chance of storms in that region.
1145 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Deep moisture is in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the coast. The highest convective coverage should be to the east where moisture is greatest. Rain chances will diminish tonight as low pressure pushes further northeastward away from the region.
The cold front stationed off to the northwest will continue to move southeastward across the area. The good news? the potential for much of the area to receive some needed rain, along with some cooler temps by tomorrow. Once the front has moved through Thursday should be mostly dry and around 10 degrees cooler and in the mid 80s. A potent ridge is building over the desert SW and will be the driving force behind weather over the next several days. The other effect of the ridge will be the shoddy PoPs that are peppered throughout the week. With the the ridge being located over the desert SW, any short waves that come over the ridge will likely pass right through the Central Plains along with accompanying MCS activity.
302 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 High pressure centered just south of our CWA this afternoon, both at the surface and aloft. Away from the thunderstorms, temperatures are generally in the lower 90s, with dew points in the mid and upper 70s.
Upper low exists over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan, but there is a PV max rotating around its southern flank that is producing some light showers north and east of Roundup. Otherwise it will be cooler today with high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s most places. JKL Much of the low level moisture has been shunted east after yesterdays frontal passage. Yet, an upper low still sits over southern Canada creating strong westerly mid-level flow over our region.
Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure runs from the Four Corners to the central US Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cooler pacific Air lies over the southwest quarter of Canada int he form of a trough. Today through tonight: The low pressure over southern Saskatchewan will curl up pulling a strong pressure gradient behind it to the south. Winds should die down in the evening hours with sunset and the low should pull east dragging the strongest gradient along with it and leave dry conditions into the early morning hours.
Overnight lows should range from mild low 70s across south central Kansas to the low 60s over the higher elevation locations around Syracuse.
Clear skies and a few degrees warmer today as northwest flow relaxes.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The persistent H5 ridge centered over Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States will slowly extend its influence east to over the Gulf through the short term. High pressure will remain stolid over the Gulf as well.
Starting Thursday, a strong high pressure system will build over the southwest United States through this weekend. Expect the hottest temperatures so far this year, potentially exceeding dangerous levels across the lower elevations. A weak trough will pass by north of the state today, bringing continued gusty southwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph.
Some of the latest high-res guidance continue to suggest some development farther to the west (along the I-20 corridor), where the upper trough is located.
This upper level trough has provided support for ascent which has resulted in areas of convection developing from central Louisiana into south-central Mississippi. The upper level trough will lift northeast of the region tomorrow. Upper level subsidence in the wake of this trough axis will result in dry conditions and likely less cloud cover during the day tomorrow.
Low pressure along the South Carolina coast will slowly move to the northeast. With moderate instability and a weak trough across the area, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. The highest convective coverage should be to the east where moisture is greatest. Rain chances will diminish tonight as low pressure pushes further northeastward away from the region.
Highs tomorrow were a little trickier in northern areas due to a weak cold front progged to turn winds more to the NW and did trim highs a few degrees in the north to account.
There will be a better chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend.
Storms will continue to quickly march east throughout the afternoon before dissipating sometime this evening as the trough quickly moves out of the area. Looking at the bigger picture, upper level ridging over New Mexico will begin to strengthen as we go into Thursday leading to northwesterly winds aloft. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored over the Central Gulf leading to light west to southwesterly flow tomorrow. Temperatures Today will remain steady in the mid to upper 80s except where ongoing storms have cooled temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow will likely see slightly higher temperatures with the lower storm coverage and the presence of the upper ridge. Temperatures will likely climb into the low 90s along the coast with upper 80s further inland where storms will be more likely.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Warm and humid conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s common with dew points in the low 70s. The wave is now approaching the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor and into an area where weaker inhibition will be as stronger daytime heating continues.
Heat index values as of 3 PM range from 105 to 113 across much of South Texas and heat will be the main story for the region through the short term forecast as a large upper ridge strengthens over the state. Radiosonde observations from this morning indicated that there was a weakness or wave in the mid-levels of this ridge today, but as this feature shifts over Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours this will allow for afternoon temperatures across the Brush Country to heat a few degrees above what is being observed this afternoon.
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend. High pressure aloft stretched west-to-east across the desert Southwest through the southern plains will begin to slowly expand north through the Great Basin on Thursday.
Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen over New Mexico and expand eastward across the forecast area tomorrow. The low levels will still be quite moist, with afternoon dewpoints in the 60s areawide tomorrow.
cold front was draped from eastern SD through western NE into northeast CO. The region will remain in northwest flow aloft however weak ridging from the sfc to 805mb will attempt to nose into the area tomorrow night.
31 A strong upper level high pressure system over the SW United States will continue to steer low pressure systems from out of the great lakes through the SE. This nearly continuous upper level trough will keep pops at chance through the rest of the forecast period.
1237 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday as low pressure approaches the Carolina coast.
328 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Satellite imagery shows upper low over southwest Saskatchewan and a dry westerly flow over our region. Otherwise, we will see flat ridging build in from the west, and dry conditions through Thursday night. Look for temps a little warmer tomorrow than today with highs mostly in the 80s.
Weak low pressure will be along the North Carolina coast with the Atlantic subtropical ridge axis remaining across south FL. The stout west flow will at least delay the east coast sea breeze formation and produce slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters, across south FL, with W/SW wind flow dominating.
331 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Upper low pressure system is currently sitting over Saskatchewan. An upper ridge will then build into the area tonight through tomorrow.
While the continuation of weak impulses will maintain the westerly winds across the area, a building ridge pattern near the four corners area is starting to shift the impulses northward-- providing less influence over Central California. The northward trajectory will be the result of building heights across the region as less cooler air will be felt by the end of the week.
Starting Thursday, a strong high pressure system will build over the southwest United States. Operational models remain in good agreement showing a anomalously strong high pressure system to build over the area. The center of the high is forecast to be along the AZ/NM line this weekend.