Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
625 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Widespread rain is expected through Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. Upper level ridging over the southeastern states will continue. A warm front stretching from central GA into the south tip of SC will slowly lift northward into the Midlands overnight. Temperatures should hold steady or rise slightly overnight as the warm front moves north. QPF amounts for the entire short term period are forecast around 1 to just over 2 inches with the highest amounts in the southwestern portion of the area. Subtropical ridge off the southeast coast will promote southwesterly flow aloft. Forecasting 50s north of the warm front and lower 70s south of the front although confidence is low.
Main weather feature of concern continues to be a warm front stretched from central Alabama northeastward into the Carolinas. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 56 67 / 70 80 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 64 55 67 / 70 60 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 48 61 55 65 / 60 50 90 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 61 49 63 / 70 50 90 60.
954 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak disturbance will lift north across the area tonight as high pressure moves east. Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers, especially Monday night.
Winds veer from SSE at the low levels to southwest above 850 mb indicating warm air advection.
Stronger forcing/instability however will likely remain south of the Red River as upper low moves into the Arklatex region.
The wind profile has changed some as well with more westerly winds in the low levels decreasing low level shear values, and a notable increase in wind speeds aloft.
An upper level low is quasi-stationary over southwest WA this evening. Because the precipitation is showery expect the snow accumulations to be mainly 1 to 4 inches with heavier amounts in areas closer to the low with upslope conditions like the Yakima Valley and north central OR.
There is no snow falling in the high country right now. There is weak flow aloft right now with a minor trough moving across. The boundary layer flow will be weak drainage overnight, then southwesterlies Monday early with a cold front moving in during the afternoon Monday. Monday night, short wave moving around a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to stretch the trough in more of west-east orientation.
As the atmosphere continues to saturate overnight with a warm front south of the region, we expect the drizzle and fog to spread northward to encompass the entire region by midnight.
Conds wl gradually deteriorate overnight as warmer air conts to lift NWD acrs AR over the cooler air at the SFC. Another round of convection is expected to affect much of the area later on Mon as the assocd warm front lifts into the area and low pres aloft passes acrs the region.
959 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Widespread rain is expected through Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. Upper level ridging over the southeastern states will continue. A warm front stretching from central GA into the southern Midlands will continue to slowly lift northward overnight. Temperatures should hold steady or rise slightly overnight as the warm front moves north. QPF amounts for the entire short term period are forecast around 1 to 1 1/2 inches with the highest amounts in the western portions of the CWA. Subtropical ridge off the southeast coast will promote southwesterly flow aloft. Forecasting 50s north of the warm front and lower 70s south of the front although confidence is low.
Breezy to windy conditions are expected to develop this evening through Monday across much of the region with a slight chance of precipitation over the higher terrain of Lincoln and Mohave counties and the Sierra early the week. The EC has swung back about two thirds of the way to its cold solution from two days ago, while the GFS has trended even further toward warmer ridging.
715 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region though Monday.
1005 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak disturbance will return light precipitation chances to the forecast overnight, with some patchy freezing rain possible across northwest Pennsylvania and the Allegheny valleys.
A cold upper level trough stretching east-west across the northern Rockies through the Pacific Northwest will gradually move southward into the northern portion of the Great Basin during the early portion of this week. This boundary is expected to move northward again mid week as a trough develops off of California and a moist westerly flow develops over the Great Basin.
A weak disturbance will return light precipitation chances to the forecast overnight, with some patchy freezing rain possible across northwest Pennsylvania and the Allegheny valleys.
VFR conditions to begin this period but low based CU is seen at most sites with a weak cold front advancing through east Texas and into southwest Arkansas near the GGG/TXK terminals.
Northerly to northeasterly flow is present across the region as the upper level ridge slowly weakens.
719 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Southerly flow continues to pump in moisture thanks to the low pressure that is to our west. By Wednesday morning, the low will have shifted to southern Arizona but moisture will continue to stream into the area.
Proton One last night of upper ridging will continue clear skies and cool temperatures tonight. Wednesday will be a transition day as an upper trough digs into the pacific northwest. Forecast models are showing a dry start with the initial push of moisture and instability associated with the upper trough.
Winds in the lower levels remain all over the place. Vis could be restricted in some areas due to the low clouds.
544 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion The low will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts Tuesday afternoon.
1057 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Southerly flow continues to pump in moisture thanks to the low pressure that is to our west. By Wednesday morning, the low will have shifted to southern Arizona but moisture will continue to stream into the area.
Moisture will linger across Utah through Wednesday as an upper low slowly exits the area. A second and more energetic upper low will stall over the Pacific Northwest through the end of the week with a strong southerly flow over the Great Basin. A low pressure system continues to slowly move across the Great Basin and desert southwest this evening. Although the best showers are located ahead of and near the main low, there remains some weaker instability along the low circulating over Utah. The low will continue to shift farther south and east tomorrow as a ridge starts to build into the Great Basin.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 79 57 80 / 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 75 55 77 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 73 54 77 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 73 53 75 / 20 30 10 10.
Further modifications to the temperature trend forecast were also necessary as temperatures are already starting off warmer than originally forecast. 77 (issued 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016) For 00Z TAFs: VFR weather will continue into the late evening, as a cold front approaching from the north slowly moves southward.
High pressure will remain over the region with light northerly flow expected on Wednesday. Temperatures have been running 5 to 10 degrees warmer this evening than last night but will eventually cool off into the 60s by morning.
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Wer season started with a bang today as rapid influx of deep moisture combined with steep low level lapse rates, some sfc heating (filtered thru high clouds this morning) and a mid level trough to produce numerous rounds of strong/severe storms with intense rains.
/issued 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) An upper low is located over southeastern Arizona this afternoon with the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft. A dryline is located west of the forecast area and a slow moving cold front is moving south through the central CWA. Storms have initiated this afternoon over our southwestern counties along the cold front. Lows tonight behind the cold front and under rainy and cloudy skies will be in the mid 50s over the Big Country and the upper 50s to around 60 degrees over the remainder of the forecast area.
Continued slight chance due to the inverted trough currently extending northeastward from Central Mobile County through Northern Covington Alabama and the approaching upstream weak frontal boundary over Northern Mississippi. With warmer temps, am expecting this to be mainly afternoon activity. For Wednesday, went between the slightly cooler, wetter NAM and warmer, wetter GFS, with scattered, mainly afternoon showers/storms and temps in the 80s.
An upper level ridge is weakening tonight as a weak wave and dry front is moving through the ridge in Washington. An upper level trough and stronger front will move into Washington and Oregon Wednesday afternoon and evening.
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Cool high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the remainder of the week.
The warm front has progressed its way northward today, which has moved the precip out of the area as well. Skies have cleared a bit, and additional sun along with southerly flow at the low levels has warmed up most of the mid state into the 70s. As the upper trough over the Great Lakes moves eastward tonight and tomorrow, the warm front north of the region will stall and allow cold air to advance the boundary back southward.
(issued 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that a weak cold front was becoming nearly stationary just to the north of the forecast area through middle Tennessee. A warm front was also extending northeast from near meridian Mississippi to just south of Montgomery Alabama and into central Georgia. The short term models are in decent agreement involving moving the weak cold front or frontal boundary southeast slowly through the forecast area on Wednesday.
Evening surface analysis had a weak dry cold front just northwest of our northwest most zones. Very little cloud cover was noted on satellite imagery northwest of the Natchez Trace and northwest to the cold front. Model consensus suggests the remainder of the night will be dry but the cold front is expected to drift southeast into our cwa after midnight. Temperatures were on track so far this evening but raised morning lows a degree or two over portions of the delta with slightly warmer dew points expected despite possible fropa. A cold front wl bring a wind shift to the NW and isold -shra activity by 12z. The cold front wl cont se Wed and bring improving flight conditions.
so have updated to solid chance PoPs in these areas to account for this trend along/ahead of the cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 79 57 80 / 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 75 55 77 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 73 54 77 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 73 53 75 / 30 30 10 10.
A weak upper level low pressure system will produce increasing clouds tonight and a chance of showers Wednesday.
1101 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 While cool weather lingers, the pattern will be a bit warmer and drier for the next few days. Upper low at 12z was centered in the UT/NV border area, with upper-level trough axis extending from QB/ONT through the UP of MI and into MN. Quality 850mb moisture was well south in TX, with a pocket of cool 850mb temperatures aligned with the upper-level trough axis across the Great Lakes and into the upper Midwest.
923 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
1155 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast as high pressure builds south into the area. Some diurnal cu (5-6 kft) can be expected again Wednesday afternoon, but drier low level air tomorrow associated with the high pressure will keep coverage FEW-SCT. First though, secondary cold front which is more of a demarcation of drier air is currently pushing southward through Lenawee and Monroe counties. Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along this line this afternoon across Washtenaw county as daytime heating and lingering mid level trough produced a couple hundred joules of cape. Large area of high pressure is building into the Great Lakes and will maintain control on our weather for the rest of the forecast period.
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A REX blocking pattern will begin to weaken for the upper ridge axis to shift southeast tonight into Wednesday. Models have been warmer than actual observations with low temperatures nudged toward cooler MAV and EC guidance. Wednesday the upper ridge weakens with the short term model more progressive that will keep the area dry. for now left pops out as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft, however, isolated showers may develop in parts of the southwest as lapse rates steepen during the day.
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 02z sfc analysis showing a weak cold front extending from near a ACT. Fcst min temps in the ballpark assuming the front continues to move southeast overnight with some slightly drier/cooler temps in the wake of the boundary towards sunrise mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor. VFR conditions to begin this period but low based CU is seen at most sites with a weak cold front advancing through east Texas and into southwest Arkansas near the GGG/TXK terminals.
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will provide the Northland will another clear and calm night, with temperatures dipping down to the lower to middle 30s for much of the forecast area. Leaned on gfs and nam mos guidance for overnight lows considering the low dew point temperatures this afternoon and the mos guidance being much colder than the rest of the guidance. The high pressure will shift south and east Wednesday, bringing southerly light southerly flow to the Northland. The fairly sunny weather and southerly flow will help temperatures reach the upper 60s and low 70s, but flow from Lake Superior will keep the North Shore cooler in the lower 60s.
1216 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 For tonight, weak low pressure moving along a cold front will bring clouds to the area.
The cold front is now moving through Jackson Tennessee. Sunrise temperatures will range from the upper 40s in Northeast Arkansas to the low 60s in northeast Mississippi. A warm front is located from Paris to Jonesboro and skies have cleared out to the south of this feature. The warm front will start heading south as a cold front soon and track across the Mid-South overnight with much cooler temps and northerly winds.
have back off on the lower CIGS overnight. Cold front starts sagging back southward on Wednesday and with weak diffluence spreading overhead.
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
upper low will keep waves of precip going into Wednesday morning.
Low pressure will track along the boundary tonight.
In any case, a warm and muggy air mass persists in Keys island communities this evening, with current air temperatures in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid or upper 70s. We think the low-level dry air and anticyclonic flow will persist in serving as a detriment to potential initiation of deep cumulus convection, thereby at least limiting cell coverage.
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ A cold front has pushed through most of the area today reinforcing the unseasonably cool air in place across the area. The exception is far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, where the shallow cool air has had a tough time traversing the higher terrain. It appears Tulsa will set a record low maximum temperature for May 17th as the current record is 65, and the high today looks like it will be 64, which occurred in the predawn hours.
511 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 20z surface analysis had high pressure from the upper Midwest into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge across the northern Plains into central Canada and upper low spinning across the southwest US. Tonight through Wednesday night, upper low over the southwest US moves east and weakens as another upper low drops into southwest Canada creating westerly flow aloft over the CWA. Modest low level jet develops tonight across northeast WY into far western SD, but predicted minimum temperatures suggests boundary layer will remain largely decoupled save for the higher elevations of the Black Hills / Foothills. Upper low settles over the Pacific NW and stalls out late in the week with ridging over the plains.
1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 While cool weather lingers, the pattern will be a bit warmer and drier for the next few days. Upper low at 12z was centered in the UT/NV border area, with upper-level trough axis extending from QB/ONT through the UP of MI and into MN. Quality 850mb moisture was well south in TX, with a pocket of cool 850mb temperatures aligned with the upper-level trough axis across the Great Lakes and into the upper Midwest.
907 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Light rain will accompany crossing low pressure tonight and early Wednesday. Drier and warmer weather is expected later in the week. With the aforementioned parent-trough remaining in place, clouds should be slow to decrease with limited temperature recovery.
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A weak cold front will finish moving through the Twin Tiers southward this evening, allowing scattered showers to exit the region. High pressure behind this front will bring mainly dry weather for the next few days, along with temperatures trending a bit warmer.
An upper level ridge is weakening tonight as a weak wave and dry front is moving through the ridge in Washington. An upper level trough and stronger front will move into Washington and Oregon Wednesday afternoon and evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will move out of the region by early Wednesday as a trough of low pressure approaches northwest Washington.
930 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Variable cloudiness and warming temperatures are expected through the end of the week and into the weekend as a weak upper trough of low pressure will builds southward across the North County tonight, while weak high pressure builds toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.
445 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The Inland Northwest will experience one more day of warmer than average temperatures on Wednesday before a vigorous cold front arrives Wednesday evening.
311 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front continues to make slow progress as it passes through the forecast area.
635 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will build across the region through today before slowly moving offshore Tuesday.
453 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 (Today and Tonight) As a weak ridge aloft slowly shifts east of our area, winds aloft will become south to southwest later today and tonight. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are expected today with highs mostly in the lower 90s.
Mostly clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning except for some mid-clouds over far northeast CA along the cold front. The trough will deepen along the West Coast today and early Tuesday. The trough is mostly dry but will bring some chances for showers and thunderstorms in the northern Sierra along with breezy conditions.
547 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 This morning a mid level low pressure area was indicated over Southern Alabama and extending into the central Gulf of Mexico.
109 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will move east Monday and Tuesday.
200 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure to start the work week.
Broad upper ridge will begin to build across the region during the period. It will be warmer today than yesterday as well.
High Southern Wisconsin will be under the western periphery of high pressure today, resulting in mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit breezier than yesterday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching low pressure. Warm advection aloft will increase tonight ahead of the approaching trough.
124 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 A frontal boundary stalls over the Carolinas through Tuesday, as high pressure builds over the northern mid Atlantic region.
351 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 A large area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will shift off the New England Coast tonight.
An area of low pressure currently over the western Dakotas will slowly track eastward tonight. This low will bring a cold front into the region, along with gusty northerly winds. A Canadian high pressure will cross the region on Tuesday-Tuesday night with much below normal temperatures expected. High temperatures on Tuesday will only warm into the low 60s for most locations.
/Today/ Long wave trough approaching from the west will increase southwest flow across the region through the day. Most areas will be slightly warmer this afternoon given milder start to the day along with expected warming aloft and mixing for the afternoon. Dew points and relative humidity continues low early today but should recover during the afternoon with dew points reaching the lower to mid 60s between 21z and 00z this afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 70s north to the lower 80s across the central counties.
231 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will build across the region through today before slowly moving offshore Tuesday.
345 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Not many changes to the current forecast, as the synoptic pattern and models continue to suggest progressively cooler and wetter conditions on tap thru the weekend. WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Texas east into the Atlantic, considerably flattened from 24 hours ago as an upper trough digs south along the west coast. Temps should top out unseasonably warm this afternoon in the lwr 90s many locations, before trending downward into the weekend as thicknesses/heights decrease and cloud cover increases w/the advancing trough.
Strong high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest will produce sunny dry weather this week. The high pressure aloft may weaken enough this weekend to permit an arriving weak Pacific frontal system to offer a threat of rain. The high amplitude upper ridge was shifting inside 140W early this morning with northerly flow aloft over Washington.
323 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 A trough continues to dig over the northern Rockies this morning with a surface cold front located from northwest Minnesota to northwest Nebraska at 3 am. Temps will be several degrees cooler west with the earlier frontal passage and increasing clouds later this morning.
Dewpoints have been increasing tonight into the lower 60s in northeastern Alabama and in our southern counties. The increasing dewpoints are mainly due to moisture convergence near a slow moving warm front extending from Georgia into central Alabama. For today, daytime heating (despite some lowering of dewpoints due to mixing of dry air aloft) should allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the warm front drifts further north toward northern Alabama. Highs around 90 degrees or into the lower 90s look reasonable, given 850 mb temperatures progged. Scattered coverage should push further north on Tuesday, as the weak warm front moves into northern Alabama. High freezing levels and a lack of dry air aloft should keep storms from becoming very strong, but frequent lightning could occur with some storms.
Cool high pressure extends from the Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Lower humidity will prevail for one more day across the Mid-South as high pressure remains in control.
The cold front that plowed through western Montana yesterday will continue to impact the region with scattered showers along the continental divide, southwest Montana and parts of west central Montana. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will cross the divide this morning contributing to a pretty raw day across the region.
431 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure moves away from the area today through Tuesday.