Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUT SUSPECT THREAT OF SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED SPOTS IN EXTREME E/NE PARTS OF SE TX.
319 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MIX DOWN AND FOR A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT.
Broken to overcast cirrus will continue overnight into Sunday, as the high pressure ridge axis passes SW KS this evening, and SW flow returns on Sunday. 12z NAM is the most aggressive model to redevelop stratus/FZFG again tonight, and included areas of freezing fog in the grids and forecast. Meanwhile, A trough of low pressure at the surface will be located across eastern Colorado through tonight leading to southerly winds across the forecast area. Another round of freezing fog will be possible again tonight after midnight but farther east than what we saw this morning. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 40s across central Kansas to around 60 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON. LOCALLY STRONG EAST WINDS ALONG THE FOOT OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO CARRY PACKED CUMULUS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR DELMARVA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AND SHALLOW RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REPLACE THE DEEP LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TUTT NOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST. RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF AN E-SE WIND FLOW. ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS H5 TEMPS COOL. THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO INCREASING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW NIGHTTIME HIGHLY ELECTRIFIED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. BY LATE WEEK RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
246 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM CROSSVILLE UP TO PADUCAH WITH UPPER LOW EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO LIFT EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELT OF WESTERLIES NORTH OF MY CWA WITH SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY EARLY DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. I WOULD EXPECT A SLOWDOWN DUE TO WAVE ACTION WHICH PROBABLY ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED STRONGLY ON THE MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS. COOLER AIR WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND LINGERS OVER WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
OWING TO RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE SERN CONUS WHICH WILL WEAKEN/LIFT NE TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVHD TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA ON THU WILL GET NUDGED FURTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.
418 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WEAK SURFACE LEE-TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. SOME DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODELS.
AT 00Z MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS OF 03Z, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE LODGE AROUND 7 PM. FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE QUALITY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
357 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER NW WI THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF TO WARRANT THOSE POPS. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
345 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA/SW MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK TO THE SSW. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BISECT IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX FALLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. WITH COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SE ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH. SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TUE NIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER S INTO THE AREA SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS. BETTER MIXING ON TUE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.
326 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY THIS WEEK.
1003 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD EVENING. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 9500 TO 9000 FEET AND SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
SOME DRIER AIR WAS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT WAS STILL SPINNING NEAR THE WV. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST. ELSEWHERE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AS UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SHIFT EAST WHILE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the area over the next few days. The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now flattened out across northern Mexico this morning.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR.
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
657 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY.
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015 RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING THEN LINGER INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS OF TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ENDING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
Temperatures will rebound a bit for western Montana after yesterday's cold front, rising to close to normal for this time of year. As the trough axis approaches Tuesday afternoon, instability will increase across western Montana, especially in the Glacier NP area. Another backdoor cool front will push across western Montana on the backside of the trough Tuesday night.
IT WON'T REQUIRE MUCH HEATING TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTN.
STRONG U/L RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. U/L CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCE BY THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LIMITED RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES EAST. STABLE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE WORST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
304 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
233 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LATE EVENING SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW LIFTING NE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NR KHTS. TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/OPEN UP AS IT SWINGS INTO THE REGION MONDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH. AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE WITH MORE SHRT WV ENERGY AFFECTING ERN NC TODAY AND WILL CONT 30-50 POPS AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THE AREA WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AND A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCE INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE COAST. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MUGGY MID 70S AT NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUESDAY.
114 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
322 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 DRY AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AND TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE ANTICIPATED ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SELY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO COULD HELP TO INITIATE A DENVER CYCLONE IN THE AFTN. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
159 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SHIFT WELL TO OUR NE WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR E AND NE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTH INTO OUR REGION.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S. AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
326 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WEAK SURFACE LEE-TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
119 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
638 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
350 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
330 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
347 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. COOLER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER AIR THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER TODAY RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GET WARMER. NWP GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS WE GO FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
441 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST. FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING TODAY AND FLATTENING FLOW TONIGHT. /ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM CROSSVILLE UP TO PADUCAH WITH UPPER LOW EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO LIFT EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELT OF WESTERLIES NORTH OF MY CWA WITH SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY.
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWER 950 MB COULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS NARROW MOIST LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS.
409 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICT A WEAKNESS OVER THE CWA/MSA IN THE REGIONAL UPPER RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE WITH MORE SHRT WV ENERGY AFFECTING ERN NC TODAY AND WILL CONT 30-50 POPS AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THE AREA WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AND A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCE INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE COAST. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MUGGY MID 70S AT NIGHT.
614 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WEAK SURFACE LEE-TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.