Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today) Strong to severe storms remained ongoing early this morning along and ahead of a slow moving cold front currently positioned from Okfuskee county to Benton county. ongoing storm coverage is forecast to continue across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front continues to slowly sag southeast through the CWA. Behind the cold front.
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will just be one of those cool, dreary days as we flip the script from above-average to below-average temperatures with a cold front moving southeast of I-44 this morning. The cold front will continue to advance southeastward this morning with falling temperatures expected for locations ahead of the boundary. The highest (relative) probability for measurable rainfall will be across southeast Oklahoma. Given the limited insolation and northerly winds, opted to lean slightly toward the cooler end of probabilistic guidance (though not as cold as the NAM/HRWF/TTU WRF).
942 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Scattered showers today with a crossing cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday under high pressure. A cold front will slowly cross the region today, exiting to the southeast by early evening. Noticeably cooler temperatures today with the showers, clouds and cold air advection. High pressure slowly builds in tonight and cold air advection will increase with the passing trough.
722 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Aviation - Some Flurries or Snow Showers Possible Today, Dry Easter An anomalously deep upper low north of Lake Superior today will drive a vorticity lobe through the region during midday, coincident with falling low level temps (-11C to -14C at 850mb) and perhaps some saturation of the DGZ north of I-96 (ie. For Easter Sunday, daytime temps will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, and model RH analysis reveals a good amount of sunshine through early to mid afternoon before high clouds move in.
An upper-level disturbance will begin to make its way in from the west aloft today, while slowly pushing out the upper ridge currently in place over the region. Breezy southwest flow will set up this afternoon over the higher terrain, and the resulting lee downslope winds will warm and increase gusts near the surface while also working to lower relative humidity. Gusty south winds will be present this afternoon over parts of the far eastern plains, however with cooler surface temps and weaker mixing, along with better available moisture than the previous several days, critical fire thresholds are not expected to be met. High temperatures for today will be in the mid-50s to low-60s across the eastern plains, while the SLV and southern I-25 areas will be a fair bit warmer, in the mid-high 60s.
541 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure will continue to build in today and suppress better moisture to our south. However, convection should remain mainly to our south across Arkansas and the lower Mississippi Valley region. Tonight should be quiet with high pressure present.
The most recent forecast seems to be in good shape regarding PoPs and QPF amounts with the highest amounts expected generally south of I-40, with lesser amounts north. The expected cloud cover should help keep daytime highs at least a few degrees cooler today, although low 70s is still within normal for this time of year. High pressure will move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight with surface winds veering toward the north.
Expect MVFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the morning before the low clouds lift and mixing increases with diurnal heating after 15Z. VFR conditions will prevail across the RGV through the afternoon into early evening as the 500mb ridge across north-central Mexico continues to provide subsidence across northeast Mexico and deep south Texas today. /issued 340 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across north- central Mexico will continue to provide a nearly zonal flow aloft across the southern plains today. a weak cold front is expected to move into north-central Texas this afternoon before stalling across south-central Texas tonight.
Mid and upper-level heights will gradually build overhead today while at the surface, a ridge of cool high pressure builds into the region from the much colder northern Plains. Fire danger will remain in the High to Very High categories today and likely again on Sunday. This will keep cooler highs east of the Missouri River where readings should top out in the 40's under cloud cover and upper 50's to near 60's possible across our western counties where clouds are expected to clear out sooner.
634 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 (Today) Strong to severe storms remained ongoing early this morning along and ahead of a slow moving cold front currently positioned from Okfuskee county to Benton county. ongoing storm coverage is forecast to continue across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front continues to slowly sag southeast through the CWA. Behind the cold front.
Cooler today with gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
514 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Surface analysis depicts a sprawling area of high pressure centered over the west-central Atlantic, with a stationary front draped over the Southeast.
133 PM PDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Cooler conditions are in store for today, with gusty west winds continuing in the mountains and deserts through this evening.
Today and Tonight: Otherwise look for high temperatures to occur early in the day (mostly in the 60s) before readings fall during the late afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
Stratus clouds and southeast winds will work to keep temperatures milder and well above freezing Easter morning, well into the 30s. An abrupt shift to north winds averaging 10-20 mph is expected around midday, but this will actually be a much warmer/drier air mass. Models depict strong warming at 850 mb versus Saturday, supporting afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
Skies will clear a bit more this evening and tonight as a mid-level ridge persists.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure currently over the area is bringing a very cold night to areas where the skies are clear. Cloud cover in some areas have kept temperatures there somewhat warmer.
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 (18Z TAFS) A cold front with a gusty N wind blew into the region this morning and as of midday had made it past the Pecos River. (Today through Sunday afternoon) Westerly upper winds are over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and a cold front is moving southward towards the area.
High pressure will continue to build in today and suppress better moisture to our south. However, convection should remain mainly to our south across Arkansas and the lower Mississippi Valley region. Tonight should be quiet with high pressure present.
This boundary becomes weaker overnight, but terminals down to the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor may see some really weak nrly winds by sunrise.
240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Upper level ridging moves over the Midwest tonight, with high pressure progressing eastward towards the Great Lakes. The high pressure will shift winds locally from northerly eventually to easterly tomorrow.
High temperatures will range from the low 60s (N/NE Oklahoma) to the mid 80's (SW Oklahoma & western north TX).
Upstream, an upper trough tracks east along the international border, dragging a warm front and associated area of mid to upper level clouds southeastward through the Northern Plains. Do expect the dominant ptype to be snow with any that reaches the ground to wet bulb near to below freezing for at least Sunday morning.
Model consensus keeps the best dynamics to the north but it shows strong orographic forcing with the best accumulations over the highest terrain. Northwest flow will bring cooler temperatures on Sunday. Elsewhere, dry and cooler conditions with lighter winds are expected.
1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will just be one of those cool, dreary days as we flip the script from above-average to below-average temperatures with a cold front moving southeast of I-44 this morning. The cold front will continue to advance southeastward this morning with falling temperatures expected for locations ahead of the boundary. The highest (relative) probability for measurable rainfall will be across southeast Oklahoma. Given the limited insolation and northerly winds, opted to lean slightly toward the cooler end of probabilistic guidance (though not as cold as the NAM/HRWF/TTU WRF).
300 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A inverted trough remains parked over the Florida Keys. Temperatures are back in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Model analyses continue to place the inverted low-level trough over the southeastern Bahamas, which sort of jives with the CIMMS low- level satellite derived vorticity analyses. Synoptically speaking, it should be over the Bahamas, on the favored flank of the mid-upper level trough. Nevertheless, the swath of sustained and deep convection may meander west over the next 24-hours to between Andros and the Cay Sal Bank, then lift north to northeast as a short wave phases into the mean long wave trough.
A zonal to northwesterly flow aloft is in place as an upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes region and a ridge builds over Mexico. Looking in the lower levels, a surface frontal boundary is currently draped from northwest Mississippi into southeast Alabama. Additionally, sufficient low-level moisture and instability has returned, with dew points across the region in the upper 60s to near 70 and temperatures (outside of regions that already received rain this morning) in the low 80s, giving way to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPEs of 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Weak ridging will move through the area today into tonight which should bring quiet weather and winds that are not too strong. This is ahead of a deepening low pressure across ND. There also appears to be a good chance that surface temperatures will be near and a bit above freezing so barring any significant snowfall rates melting will limit accumulations as well. Farther west in central SD warm air will build in behind this trough of low pressure and a few spots may approach 60.
DCVA and lower level theta-e advection will line up over far northern North Dakota, where periods of heavy snow will be possible as the low tracks across the state. While winds should be weaker on the north side of the low, there will be some overlap of winds and falling snow to produce visibility reductions, but that spatial designation is pretty uncertain until this system develops.
High pressure will linger over the region tonight.
225 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure will build east across the region tonight through Sunday.
A stalled frontal boundary, acting as the dividing line between a very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere across our region and a much cooler, more stable airmass north of the boundary north of the Ouachitas. /issued 651 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ For the 16/12Z TAF period, MVFR cigs blanket our airspace this morning and will likely maintain similar conditions throughout the period as a cold front advances in the region later today.
(Tomorrow through Saturday) Showers and isolated storms will mark the passing mid level trough axis on Sunday with precip ending west to east through the day.
Tonight: A rather chilly night is in store as high pressure centered in the upper Midwest ridges into the dvn cwa. Easter Sunday: An upper level trough will be pushing into the area with increasing forcing/moisture, along with models showing diffluence aloft. Forecast soundings indicate the low levels are quite dry initially so in the morning there will be virga and possibly sprinkles.
A line of convection pushed south across the area this morning along a psuedo warm front/moisture gradient. To the north, a cold front is extending southwest from an area of low surface pressure over the Northeast region. The cold front will continue to drift southward this afternoon then stall across southern Alabama tonight. The cold front will continue south over the next several hours and should act to push much of the convection further south with any risk of stronger storms ending by this evening.
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Rain will end this evening with an exiting cold front.
Today and Tonight: The cold front that pushed through early this morning brought cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs remaining in the 50s for much of the area. Despite the high pressure building into the region, much of the area will remain overcast, keeping temperatures cooler this evening into tonight. Can expect cooler temperatures, as NBM guidance shows afternoon highs in the mid to high 40s for the majority of the area, and lower 50s for far southwestern Missouri, which would be well below normal for this time of year.
Low pressure moves across ND on Sunday with a trailing cold front in SD that will bring snow by morning.
Synoptic forcing will be weaker today compared to yesterday, and warmer temperatures and a drier air mass aloft should limit the convective intensity of these storms.
Despite the cloud coverage temps have already warmed into the low 60s for most with dew point temps remaining in the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500 mb ridging will remain in place over Deep South TX/RGV throughout today and tonight allowing for relatively warm and humid conditions to continue. A short wave will move over the top of the 500 mb ridge axis on Sun which will push a weak cold front down into central/southern TX Sun Night.
Initial cold front has pushed south of the mid TN Valley into the central half of AL this Sat morning. Otherwise, with cloud cover beginning to diminish/sct in some parts of the area, afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower/mid 70s for most spots, as sfc flow remains out of the S/SW. Further south lows should only drop into the lower 50s. However, rain chances will return early Sunday morning, as a longwave trough moves quickly from the Pacific northwest into the Upper Midwest, dragging the frontal boundary to our south northward and into the region during the afternoon hours.
Cooler conditions are in store for today, with gusty west winds continuing in the mountains and deserts.
The latest surface map shows high pressure over central North Dakota, with just a bit of a gradient along and east of the Red River Valley. Tonight should remain very quiet, as high pressure pushes east into Minnesota. Low pressure will take shape over western South Dakota by Sunday morning, with an inverted trough extending to the north, up into eastern Montana.
Storms are slowly creeping south along a frontal boundary that is expected to stall in central Mississippi overnight and lift back North as a warm front tomorrow. In the late morning, diurnal heating should allow for destabilization of a moist airmass associated with a warm front over the ArkLaMiss region.
Sunday, we will see a brief warm-up as a warm front quickly precedes a cold front across the area.
Overnight temps will again be fairly seasonal, with lows early Sun mainly in the lower 50s/near 50F for most spots. Rainfall should then taper off to the east Mon morning, as the system lifts to the ENE and high pressure out of the Plains states gradually begins to build towards the SE. Afternoon temps Sun/Mon will trend slightly cooler compared to the last few days, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s, while lows Sun night remain in the lower 50s/near 50F. This ridge will continue a chilly start of the week.
Near normal temperatures tonight, with highs a few degrees cooler Sunday.
As the upper low moves east and ridging builds across WI expect any snow showers to come to an end, followed by clearing clouds through the mid to late evening. Lows will range from the lower 10s in north-central WI, to the middle 20s in the Fox Valley and lake shore. Return flow sets up in the afternoon which will give temps a slight boost compared to today, with highs temps reaching the low to middle 40s, and slightly cooler along Lake Michigan.
254 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A chilly air mass in place across the forecast area this afternoon will get shunted eastward beginning late tonight as winds veer to west in response to a low-amplitude upper level short wave trough moving over the Sangre de Cristos. The new air mass will be warmer and drier than the current one, and temperatures will rebound significantly despite winds continuing to veer to north once the upper trough moves to the east of the 100th meridian. Highs should run about 20-25 degrees warmer than those of this afternoon. Our area will be under relatively low amplitude ridging across our latitude at the base of a much higher amplitude ridge to our north extending through the High Plains states into southern Canada.
/issued 752 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ Upper ridging centered aloft Mexico sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico to FL while a low/trough meanders over/east of the Bahamas. Atlantic high pressure ridges across the state and out over the Gulf with a relaxed gradient. High pressure resides across the waters through Sun as a cold front moves into north FL then continues south over the waters Sun night and Mon. High pressure builds in behind the front.
This unsettled weather is mostly due to a closed upper-low low pressure system located over the Washington coast. The low will continue to push moist air into the Northern Rockies overnight tonight as the trough broadens into north-central Idaho and western Montana. While points south of about I-90 see more convective precipitation, points farther north will benefit from warmer southwesterly midlevel flow overrunning colder air closer to the surface. Snow will continue on Sunday, mostly in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 71 55 64 41 / 20 50 90 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 68 51 61 39 / 20 40 90 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 68 50 61 38 / 10 40 90 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 65 45 55 36 / 10 20 90 80 10.
Despite the cloud coverage temps have already warmed into the low 60s for most with dew point temps remaining in the mid to upper 50s. Southeast winds early in the TAF period will become northwesterly/northerly later this morning as a cold front moves across the area, with speeds increasing this afternoon.
Winds behind the cold front passage are 25 to 35 mph gusting to 40 to 50 mph across the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 71 55 65 42 / 10 50 80 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 68 52 63 39 / 10 40 90 60 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 68 50 63 39 / 10 40 90 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 65 47 56 37 / 0 20 70 90 10 TN.
916 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A cold front will drop into the area late tonight.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500 mb ridging will remain in place over Deep South TX/RGV throughout today and tonight allowing for relatively warm and humid conditions to continue. A short wave will move over the top of the 500 mb ridge axis on Sun which will push a weak cold front down into central/southern TX Sun Night.
Cold overnight temperatures are expected tonight, with freezing temperatures across many areas.
/issued 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ A chilly air mass in place across the forecast area this afternoon will get shunted eastward beginning late tonight as winds veer to west in response to a low-amplitude upper level short wave trough moving over the Sangre de Cristos. The new air mass will be warmer and drier than the current one, and temperatures will rebound significantly despite winds continuing to veer to north once the upper trough moves to the east of the 100th meridian. Highs should run about 20-25 degrees warmer than those of this afternoon. Our area will be under relatively low amplitude ridging across our latitude at the base of a much higher amplitude ridge to our north extending through the High Plains states into southern Canada.
753 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Rain will end this evening with an exiting cold front.
High pressure will build into the region thereafter, with periods of active weather continuing through the week ahead.
Upper level ridging moves over the Midwest tonight, with high pressure progressing eastward towards the Great Lakes. The high pressure will shift winds locally from northerly eventually to easterly tomorrow.
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure will build east across the region tonight through Sunday.
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Active weather and the next chance of precipitation returns to portions of northern Nebraska tonight as a short wave trough tracks through the area. For the rest of this afternoon, increasing clouds are expected across the region in advance of this trough. Precipitation type will start as all rain and change into a rain/snow mix or all snow briefly as temperatures fall below freezing across northern Nebraska.
A line of convection pushed south across the area this morning along a pseudo warm front/moisture gradient. To the north, a cold front is extending southwest from an area of low surface pressure over the Northeast region. The cold front will continue to drift southward this afternoon then stall across southern Alabama tonight. The cold front will continue south over the next several hours and should act to push much of the convection further south with any risk of stronger storms ending by this evening.
806 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 The cold front currently bisects the forecast area. Rainfall should then taper off to the east Mon morning, as the system lifts to the ENE and high pressure out of the Plains states gradually begins to build towards the SE. Afternoon temps Sun/Mon will trend slightly cooler compared to the last few days, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s, while lows Sun night remain in the lower 50s/near 50F. This ridge will continue a chilly start of the week.
714 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure will build east across the region tonight through Sunday.
Dry and warmer conditions expected on Sunday, but the break between weather systems will be short lived.
GFS and ECMWF surface wet bulb temperatures are forecast to only be in the mid 30s, and given the track of the low and the frequency of precipitation it is doubtful that many locations will get out of the 30s at all on Monday. If we had wet bulb temperatures below freezing, this would be a more interesting event in terms of travel impacts, but given the bulk of the snow will occur during the day in mid April with temperatures above freezing, we are not expecting this to have much if any impact.
356 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Morning stratocu will dissipate by afternoon under building high pressure. Clouds will build in from the west tonight ahead of another deepening trough. This should keep temperatures above freezing, with the exception of higher elevation ridges.
The cold front currently bisects the forecast area. Rainfall should then taper off to the east Mon morning, as the system lifts to the ENE and high pressure out of the Plains states gradually begins to build towards the SE. Afternoon temps Sun/Mon will trend slightly cooler compared to the last few days, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s, while lows Sun night remain in the lower 50s/near 50F. This ridge will continue a chilly start of the week.
1258 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. Patchy stratocu should develop overnight in cold NW flow and with a crossing upper trough. Morning stratocu will dissipate by afternoon under building high pressure. Clouds will build in from the west tonight ahead of another deepening trough. This should keep temperatures above freezing, with the exception of higher elevation ridges.