Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, low level convergence toward a deepening trough over the Pacific NW should weaken the normal drainage wind in the middle Rio Grande Valley early this morning and early Thursday morning, with a light and variable surface wind expected in Albuquerque's north valley.
530 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with a gradual warming trend. Upper ridging over the central CONUS will build east today. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will ridge into the forecast area. Center of upper ridging forecast to remain across the region through the period.
A recent surface analysis showed high pressure centered over western North Carolina with light and variable winds across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys.
315 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A disturbance moving out ahead of a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest drove a cold front across the eastern Uinta Basin at around 05Z. Rejected cooler afternoon highs put forth in the model blends for all but the northwesternmost portion of the forecast area and went with a near persistence forecast today. The trend toward more southwesterly flow continues tonight as the closed low to the northwest moves over northern California late tonight/Sunday morning time frame. This will cause the cold front to lift north of the area. The closed low over the Pacific NW begins to dive southward to northern California on Sunday.
A front will be stretched across north-central WI attached to low pressure in Nebraska as a 130 kt upper jet slides across southern Canada with the right entrance region over northern WI. A strong, 5880m ridge sets up over the eastern half of the country. Heat index values look to be in the lower to mid 90s.
Storm chances should be a little bit higher Sunday as cyclonic flow begins to replaces the ridge aloft.
Weak mid/upper level low over East Texas becomes quasi- stationary with Deep South Texas positioned on the subsidence side of trough under a dry northwest flow.
An upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will track to the northern CA/NV border by Sunday afternoon. For today, moisture and instability ahead of the low will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Precipitation coverage increases across southeast Oregon late tonight into Sunday as the low center moves into northern CA. The chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms continues for Sunday, with the eastward progression of the low bringing a chance of precipitation into the Western Magic Valley.
318 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with a gradual warming trend. Upper ridging over the central CONUS will build east today. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will ridge into the forecast area. Center of upper ridging forecast to remain across the region through the period.
Chances will shift eastward a bit by Tue as a lee low does the same ahead of a closed mid to upper low moving over the northern Rockies. A very weak cold front will accompany this feature Wed, but stall over KS/nw OK.
351 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Just one more day of quiet weather with minimal local impacts expected today as the CWA is in a region between slight ridge to the north and inverting trough to the south. The south side of the weak upper ridge to the north will deminish as inverted trough expands north, engulfing the entire southeastern US on Sunday. The GFS suggests drying mid week due to upper ridge centered over northern Mexico pushing east over the CWA.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. Dry weather will continue through this period underneath stout ridging centered over the southeastern U. Despite this, capping provided by the ridge will prevent the development of convection during the afternoon.
Slowly strengthening southwest winds aloft next 24 hrs as upper low develops over PacNW and drops into nrn CA. Dry weather is expected for the next 7 days as an upper level low pressure system moves over the Great Basin, then migrates northeastward across the northern Rockies and upper Great Plains.
As such, will adjust the lows down a few degrees. High pressure will hold influence through the night as return flow begins to ease into eastern Kentucky.
Overnight mins will be in the low to mid 70s. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will be north of the area, with a relatively light low level onshore flow developing. Pattern changes little into the work week, with high pressure ridge axis remaining north of the area and deep moisture persisting across the region. Winds will remain out of the east-southeast, with speeds less than 15 knots, as high pressure ridge axis remains north of the area.
1117 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge axis over the High Plains. The dry air rounding the ridge has lead to a clear sky across a large portion of the Plains, expect for afternoon cumulus developing downstream of the ridge axis. Behind the trough winds will turn to the north then back to the south through the afternoon. Further north a weak cold front will move south. The cooler air should remain north of the forecast area. With a 850mb ridge overhead, winds will be light. By Saturday night, the upper ridge dominating the pattern begins to progress east as a low moves onto the west coast. Southwest flow develops aloft over the High Plains as the low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
As a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region, afternoon highs today will be well above seasonal normals, for much of West Central Texas.
An area of low pressure will move into Northern California from the Pacific Northwest today and tonight and will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra mainly north of Sequoia Park.
Temperatures will also be on the rise today as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast states.
It is difficult to determine if the low stratus will impact OUN/OKC after sunrise this morning but confidence is high enough to at least include MVFR cigs for a couple of hours.
207 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge axis over the High Plains. The dry air rounding the ridge has lead to a clear sky across a large portion of the Plains, expect for afternoon cumulus developing downstream of the ridge axis. Behind the trough winds will turn to the north then back to the south through the afternoon. Further north a weak cold front will move south. The cooler air should remain north of the forecast area. With a 850mb ridge overhead, winds will be light.
This strong push of southerly winds over the plains will also bring a push of warmer air into the region with the main axis of WAA just to our NW over Nebraska up into Minnesota. Temperatures Saturday are expected to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indexes in the low to mid 90s. A new lee side low will form Sunday morning over eastern CO allowing more warmer air to advect into the lower levels Sunday as it progresses to the NE. Highs Sunday will increase a few degrees with most of the CWA in the lower 90s and heat index values up into the mid to upper 90s. Winds are expected to be fairly gusty Saturday and Sunday afternoon with 15-20mph sustained and 30-35mph gusts to accompany the warmer temperatures.
Highs today will be some 10f cooler over the north and similar to yesterdays over the south with full insolation and light winds through the afternoon. With the upper ridge pushing into the eastern U. and a closed low digging through the Intermountain West, western Nebraska is placed in southwest flow through midweek.
354 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A weak trough remains in place over South Florida and the Florida Keys, stretching southwest across Cuba and the Yucatan. The weak trough will remain nearby with plenty of moisture pumping into the low to mid levels. The trough that has plagued the Keys area for the past few days will linger a while longer. Weak high pressure will build in over North Florida with the ridge axis over the Central Gulf of Mexico.
Tonight into Sunday mid-level ridging will continue to amplify over the region with 500 mb heights up to 592 m across our southeastern zones. Have continued to advertise high temperatures around 90 degrees Sunday given the amplitude of the ridge, 1000/850 mb thicknesses, and 850 mb temperatures.
325 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning showing a strong low pressure system off the Washington/Oregon coast tracking slowly southeastward towards northern California.
The weak upper level disturbance responsible for the isolated thunderstorm activity yesterday will push off to the east today and get replaced by a positively tilted ridge axis.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will become more southerly as an upper level low digs further south in Texas. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
A near persistence forecast in order for today and Sunday as upper low stalls over southeast TX and an upper ridge builds over the Southeast Coastal Plain.
Today Through Sunday Night Upper ridging will be in place over Arkansas through the weekend, with south to southwesterly flow extending from the surface through the mid levels especially on Sunday. Despite the upper ridging in place, a weak closed upper low has developed over eastern Texas. With slightly lower H5 heights over Arkansas, and the H85 thermal ridge situated well to the north, over the central plains, felt it was a good decision to lower highs for today.
WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending from the SW CONUS into the upper Midwest, and a trough approaching the PacNW. The trough is forecast to dig south and make landfall over NoCal by 12Z Sunday, suppressing the ridge and putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. The trough is then forecast to eject into the the upper Midwest/Canada by Wed. As this feature ejects NE, this opens the door for an upper-lvl ridge to begin building NE thru Mexico. Beginning this afternoon, the 850/700mb thermal ridge begins building in from the west. As for temps, the heat is on, w/well-abv normal conditions thru the extended, especially when the Mexican ridge begins building NE. However, even w/the cooler models, temps will approach the triple digits each afternoon for many locations.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist across the region through the weekend as an upper level low approaches northern California. Cool conditions persist over the region this morning with temperatures running a few to as much as 10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Expecting low clouds to again mix out later today for most areas with a slight increase across the far northern portion of the region as an upper level low approaches northern California. The mid/upper level low currently off of the Pacific Northwest coast will continue to drop southward into Sunday.
EST is already 10F warmer than yesterday at 08z and this station had no problem reaching 90F.
So, the safety hazards associated with the high flows will continue along area rivers and streams.
507 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 07z/2am surface analysis shows 989mb low over eastern North Dakota with warm front extending southeastward to southern Lake Michigan. As upper ridging continues to build into the Midwest, the warm front will get nudged further northward today. Pressure gradient will increase well ahead of the cold front and with deep mixing taking place to about 6000ft, am expecting wind gusts of 25 to 30mph from late morning through the afternoon.
As of 8Z, an area of low pressure is crossing ND with a trailing cold front over north central SD. There is plenty of instability ahead of the cold front where dew points are still in the 60s. Breezy northwesterly winds and less humid conditions can be expected behind the cold front. The cold front will push south and east of the CWA today, before lifting back northward as a warm front late tonight into Sunday morning.
A slow moving area of low pressure will lead to windy, dry and cooler conditions today and Sunday.
1127 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 updated aviation section Hot and dry conditions will be continuing across the forecast area through this weekend as we see southwest gradients winds gradually increase ahead of low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest.
As the trough dips southwest tonight, moisture advection/transport will continue to increase as a weak easterly wave over the Gulf and stalled surface boundary over southern Florida to lift back to the north near the Gulf coast tonight. However, PWs will slowly increase near an inch and a half in the Pine Belt, with 850mb Theta E increasing towards 330K+ in the Highway 84 corridor. With dewpoints lingering in the low- mid 60s and continued return flow, expect a warmer night with lows near normal in the mid- upper 60s.
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper level low over SE Texas that has formed from the remains of a mesoscale convective system that decayed over central Texas.
Later in the afternoon a weak cold front approaches from the northwest before stalling out and lifting back to the north as a warm front. The low-level wind profile is a little bit more messy, but could still get large hail or perhaps some isolated damaging winds IF storms can develop.
Strong southwest flow aloft has kept valley inversions from forming in most of the high country. There is a cold front pushing south across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle early this morning, but this feature will weaken and eventually wash out as it encounters strong daytime heating and mixing of very warm southwest flow aloft.
Models agree we will see some brisk W/SW flow over our region today behind last nights short wave, while the upper trough to the west slides slowly south along the west coast.
A broad mid level ridge will continue to push into the area Today. Squeeze play between high pressure over the southeast US and deepening low pressure over the Rockies will enhance the winds vs previous days.
353 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Mid/upper level ridge will continue to push eastward across the area as well as amplifying through the day today. Expect similar conditions as yesterday sensible weather wise, just another couple of degrees warmer and slightly more humid, though still comfortable dewpoints for mid June standards. Should be another clear night, with lows several degrees warmer mainly due to the increased southerly surface flow. Gosselin Slightly warmer and more humid conditions can be expected on Sunday with upper level ridging just east of the forecast area, and continued southerly surface winds.
Clear skies and dry weather will continue through the evening hours with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For Saturday, the upper level ridge axis will continue to build over the region. Dry weather continues into Saturday night with lows in the lower 60s.
1133 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 An upper level ridge has been shifting eastward over the area today, with some high clouds drifting eastward. Tonight and Saturday, an upper level disturbance will move from the northern Rockies into the northern plains states and southern Canada, while an upper low moves to just off the Pacific Northwest coast. That upper low will then sit just off the west coast thru the day Sat, and will slowly drift southward, bringing slightly stronger west to southwest flow aloft over southern CO.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in area of upper troughing/250 mb divergence that will move east of the ridges by 12Z. Dry weather will continue through this period underneath stout ridging centered over the southeastern U. Despite this, capping provided by the ridge will prevent the development of convection during the afternoon.
00Z upper air analysis depicts a weak low level ridge over the Carolinas, transitioning to a weak shear axis aloft, exiting the region. Another mid-upper level shear axis, currently exiting the lower Great Lakes, will swing through central NC Saturday morning. This feature may produce patchy cloudiness over our region well after midnight in the west, and toward the highway 1 corridor around daybreak. Min temps between 56-62 with the cooler temps occurring in the normally colder locales. The longwave trough will move offshore early Sat and yield to (significantly) rising heights aloft (about 100 meters from 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun), as subtropical high pressure strengthens and becomes situated over the Carolinas. Subtropical ridge will be at peak amplitude on Sunday with highs edging into the upper 80s northwest to lower 90s everywhere else.
However, southerly winds are expected to stay up tonight and will keep temperatures warmer than they might otherwise be. A deep 500 mb low is sitting just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon, with weak ridging over the Plains. Most of the eastern half of the CONUS is under northwesterly flow aloft and a weak ridge at the surface. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies and continued southerly flow as the ridge axis drifts eastward.
214 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the central U. will refocus across the Southeast over the weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies will persist through the weekend with a strong mid level subsidence inversion beneath the ridge.
As low pressure tracks across southern Canada, the gradient will be sufficiently strong to maintain mechanically- driven wind gusts through most or all of tonight at KMBS/KFNT. Early morning WV satellite imagery shows the upper level low digging into the west coast as part of a blocking pattern developing over the Gulf of Alaska. Corresponding ridge development is also evident over the central U. This high pressure will combine with troughing in the lee of the Rockies and produce moderate southwest low level flow starting today with gusts around 30 mph by mid afternoon.
All the available jet energy aloft; all the low level moisture being drawn up into the region on a strengthening low level jet and the surface boundary that has pushed into north central South Dakota will not be able to initiate any convection over this cwa overnight. Had a couple of record high temperatures, though, today: 103 at Mobridge and 103 at Pierre (see RERMBG and RERPIR for details). Upper level ridging will remain over the area tonight, then looks to get dampened some on Saturday as southwest flow sets up ahead of a trough extending from Hudson Bay to the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s east.
151 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A large upper-level ridge will build over the region over the next 48 hours. The ridge will begin to break down around mid- week.
238 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Above normal temperatures are expected through mid to late week in association with an amplified upper level ridge over the region.
Closer to the surface, high pressure offshore combined with mid-level impulses will help with diurnal convection.
349 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Presence of an upper-level ridge building into the Central Plains and Midwest noted by cirrus blow off from northern Minnesota MCS diving southward in a subtle clockwise fashion. The lower humidity and breezy conditions will help people cool off while taking breaks in the shade.
with NW zones being 10 deg cooler as a result of morning SHRA. while srn zones will see increasing clouds aft midnight, keeping lows in the lower 60s.
A mid and upper level ridge axis, extending from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and flatten through Saturday. This will usher in a period of warmer and dry weather with breezy/windy conditions.
303 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving southeast across western SD, with gusty northwest winds behind it. Upper level analysis shows ridge now east of the region, over the upper MS river valley, with southwesterly flow in place from the west coast to the northern high plains ahead of upper low off the Pacific NW coast.
215 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Low pressure over Lower Michigan will weaken while tracking toward Lake Ontario tonight. A strong upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend ushering in hot and humid conditions. Lows will be warmer, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Strong upper ridge builds over the entire forecast area this weekend ushering in hotter and more humid conditions. Expect temps to warm into the lower to mid 80s Saturday to the 85-90 range by Sunday. Do not expect any convection as ridge is so strong and we will be well capped with 700mb temps increasing to 10-11c.
A deep trough will slowly dig over the western CONUS over the next few days as a mid-level ridge builds over the Southeast.
340 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the end of the week. 500 mb heights will be building in across the southeast CONUS, allowing for mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Sunday will be a repeat performance, although readings will be slightly warmer still, with humidity levels a bit more on the rise as well.
253 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the central U. will refocus across the Southeast over the weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies will persist through the weekend with a strong mid level subsidence inversion beneath the ridge.
203 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with a gradual warming trend. Upper ridging over the central CONUS will build east today. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will ridge into the forecast area. Upper trough will lift to our NE and an upper ridge will build over the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic.
High pressure ridge over the FL peninsula at the SFC and aloft will continue to drift slowly northward and this will bring deeper tropical moisture from old frontal boundary northward. Max Temps slightly warmer than yday with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the coast/I-95 corridor in the easterly sfc flow at 10-15 mph and near 90 further inland.
Upper level flow will become more zonal today as the low continues to move up the east coast. By Saturday morning, an upper low will be cutting off over Southeast Texas. This low will drop very slowly southward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. A downstream ridge will build along the U.
A weak U/L trough will sink south over the western Gulf of Mexico through the short term period. today and Sunday which will induce downstream ridging over the eastern U. with a strong U/L ridge becoming centered over the mid Atlantic coast. The combination of U/L troughing to the west of the forecast area and a developing ridge to the northeast of the region will allow deep east to southeast flow to develop over the Florida peninsula.
358 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A weak upper trough can be seen in the latest water vapor satellite loops over East Texas. The increased moisture combined with some very slight enhanced lift and onshore flow from the upper trough over Texas should result in isolated diurnal convection on Sunday, mainly along and south of Interstate 20.
228 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Above normal temperatures are expected through mid to late week in association with an amplified upper level ridge over the region.
Dry weather will continue through this period underneath stout ridging centered over the southeastern U. Despite this, capping provided by the ridge will prevent the development of convection during the afternoon.
Early morning WV satellite imagery shows the upper level low digging into the west coast as part of a blocking pattern developing over the Gulf of Alaska. Corresponding ridge development is also evident over the central U. This high pressure will combine with troughing in the lee of the Rockies and produce moderate southwest low level flow starting today with gusts around 30 mph by mid afternoon.