Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With northerly surface flow coming to an end, we'll see some modification of the air mass today with highs in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will move off to our east on Sunday with southerly surface flow expected to develop.
1210 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure will maintain its hold on the weather pattern across the TN Valley today, while upper ridging builds eastward from the Planes.
a cold front moves through the northwest half of the area with scattered to broken high clouds overhead. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 50s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 50s to middle 60s across the remainder of the forecast area. the forecast area will be under southwest flow aloft as an upper level low pressure area resides over northern Utah. At the surface, the cold front dissipates allowing south to southwest winds to redevelop. Another cold front moves through during the night. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to upper 80s in far eastern Colorado to the upper 80s to middle 90s across the remainder of the forecast area.
That said, rising heights and incoming high pressure will gradually cutoff any remaining showers through the evening.
101 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Water vapor shows evolving upper trof over the western CONUS, with a strong jet streak over the Great Basin and distinct short wave over southeastern ID/northern UT. Main upper low will take shape over southern ID/northern UT on Sunday. Rather widespread convection will likely lift northeast across our zones Sunday night as robust wave ejects from developing upper low.
116 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. The cold front that crossed the CWA this morning is now draped along the coastal plain and could serve as a lifting mechanism for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm later today near the coast. Having said that, most of the forecast area should have clear skies with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 60s.
Southerly low level flow will develop on Sunday as upper level ridging begins to establish itself.
418 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry through midweek, with a warming trend to above seasonal averages anticipated. Cloud deck will continue to diminish/scatter as ridging builds and dry air mixes to the surface. Residual surface moisture from today's rain, calm wind under the ridge axis, and minimal low level clouds from subsidence will introduce a fog risk tonight as temperatures radiatively cool to their respective dew points. Ridging will continue to build over the eastern US in response to a digging western trough.
221 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 An upper trough pattern will remain in place over the region with continuing unsettled weather through the next few days.
Since then, cloud cover has begun breaking up and thinning, which has allowed for a few valley locations to warm into the low and mid 70s. As we continue toward the evening, upper level heights will be on the rise as broad ridging overspreads the Southeast from Mexico and the Southern Plains. High pressure will be associated at the surface, settling across the Central Appalachians tonight and tomorrow. Expect there to be a fair split between ridges and valleys tonight as well, as skies continue to clear and winds calm. A light southerly flow Sunday will then warm high temperatures into the low and mid 80s. For Sunday night, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling once again, where temperatures fall into the mid and upper 50s for valleys, and low 60s for ridges.
With northerly surface flow coming to an end, we'll see some modification of the air mass today with highs in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will move off to our east on Sunday with southerly surface flow expected to develop. One will be the weak upper low that will form in the base of the exiting trough axis over the next few days.
A weak area of high pressure over the region will continue to keep things dry through Sun morning before it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sun afternoon.
Confidence is not high as forecast soundings remain pretty dry in the low levels, but there is at least some weak isentropic lift near the KS/NE border before it eventually moves into southeast NE along with the nose of the LLJ.
156 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will start unsettled across central PA with some showers and a few rumbles of thunder sparked by a trough of cooler air aloft drifting east over Pennsylvania.
238 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 An upper level wave was moving east of the area this afternoon and was bringing a westerly component to the low level winds, thus keeping low level moisture to a minimum. After roughly midnight the low level jet will increase and bring some stronger forcing to area east of the James River. Isolated severe storms will be possible with this activity and confidence in this is also on the lower side. However after about 3z a stronger wave will lift north through eastern NE and help back the low level flow.
357 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure has resulted in quiet weather across lower MI to start the holiday weekend. Highs have risen into the low 70s with just slight airmass modification due to increased heights and sun today. There remains a slight chance of seeing some precipitation tonight as a mid level wave ripples along a developing warm frontal boundary. The system currently over WI and the Upper Peninsula will drift across Central MI tonight while decreasing in intensity and coverage as it enters a less favorable airmass with the drier ridge in place.
Overall, this made negligible changes and left the high temperature untouched. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 86 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 0.
104 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will start unsettled across central PA with some showers and a few rumbles of thunder sparked by a trough of cooler air aloft drifting east over Pennsylvania.
450 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure ridging into the region by tonight will bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
Much warmer and windier conditions are found farther west over Iowa, but the moisture remains well west, along the Missouri River, where 60 degree dewpoints are found. Lows in the lower to mid 60s will feel comfortable with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s through sunrise. Second, dewpoint values will be holding in the lower 60s, to the wind will have less a cooling affect compared to today.
436 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the west overnight and then offshore Sunday afternoon.
/Issued 225 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022/ /Sunday and beyond/ North and Central Texas will be located between an upper trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the Appalachians to start the period on Sunday. By this time, a strong lee-side cyclone will be in place, producing a narrow pressure gradient across Texas and the Southern Plains.
High pressure continues to shift east of the area with another batch of showers approaching from the west.
Otherwise, sfc ridging has shifted E into the Mid and Lower MS Valley this morning, with a SErly low level flow having resumed over much of the region. This has resulted in a quick warmup from the cool conditions observed earlier this morning, with the 15Z temps running some 2-6+ degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago. This, combined with the strong insolation in place, will enable even warmer temps with readings climbing into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide.
High pressure builds in overnight, bringing warm and dry weather through the first half of the week. The low continues to move eastward, leaving just a line of scattered showers that is moving south across the Catskills and Poconos. Skies become mostly clear during overnight as high pressure builds in, and temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s. With high pressure in place, dry conditions are expected through Sunday night. While not quite as widespread, patchy fog is expected in the lower elevations once again Sunday night.
A closed upper level low just offshore of the central Oregon coast is well represented on satellite imagery this afternoon.
1142 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will start unsettled across central PA with some showers and a few thunderstorms sparked by a trough of cooler air aloft drifting east over Pennsylvania.
Aloft, an upper level low will dig into the western CONUS heading into Sunday. Ridging spanning across the central United States will respond by both amplifying and shifting eastward, leading to locally increasing H5 heights.
239 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Upper level high pressure over the southeast U.
Clouds will increase and thicken from west to east today ahead of the incoming trough. Mid level moisture will continue to increase as the trough nears overnight tonight. This should bring a dusting of snow to the higher mountains above 10,000 feet, and will push a cold front through eastern Colorado this evening. An unsettled pattern will be in place from Sunday through much of the week as a deep trough axis sits over the western US. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the high country first as a result of orographic lift, combined with weak PVA/QG ascent, then spread into the plains through the afternoon.
A mid to upper level trough extends south-southwestward from southeast Canada to the central Gulf of Mexico. The northern and central portions of the trough axis will shift eastward through the period, but the a weak closed upper low pressure area is expected to get pinched off over the central and northeast Gulf coast regions this evening and remain through Sunday afternoon. The weak upper level low will continue to meander over the vicinity of the AL/western FL panhandle coast and adjacent northern Gulf on Sunday. With the upper low over the region, isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop near the coast in the morning and advance northward along the seabreeze across southwest/south central AL and the western FL panhandle, so will carry 20-30% POPs in the forecast there.
711 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Patchy fog was added to the FL Panhandle and Big Bend early Sunday morning within the higher dew point air mass on the heels of this evening's sea-breeze passage.
Despite the low-level convergence with these features, shras/tstms have failed to form this aftn with the exception being near Kure Beach, as the air above 700 mb is extremely dry. High pressure aloft is expected to de-amplify by mid-week and become suppressed farther south as westerlies increase to the north. Significant uncertainty exists will low pressure development off the Southeast U. Stayed within MVFR limits for the time being given the low confidence for IFR conditions.
703 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the west overnight and then offshore Sunday afternoon.
Conditions then turn wet and cooler by mid- week as a cold front sags across central Illinois. Lows will be considerably warmer than last night as surface winds increase and a more mild airmass advects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As winds aloft converge across The Plains and the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of a deepening low-pressure system, central Illinois will be in position to receive moderate synoptic wind gusts. The higher-end gusts will come west of I-55 where a few 40-45 mph gusts will be possible throughout the day.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: An upper trough pattern will remain in place over the region with continuing unsettled weather through the next few days.
540 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Temperatures have climbed into the low 80s to mid 90s from east to west respectively this afternoon. Breezy south winds will continue through tomorrow ahead of a long wave trough over the western CONUS. A wind advisory may be needed along and east of I-35 eventually but should be on the low end of criteria. Afternoon highs Sunday will be 1-3 degrees warmer than today with deeper stronger downslope southwesterlies present over the High Plains of Texas.
522 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Water vapor shows evolving upper trof over the western CONUS, with a strong jet streak over the Great Basin and distinct short wave over southeastern ID/northern UT. Main upper low will take shape over southern ID/northern UT on Sunday. Rather widespread convection will likely lift northeast across our zones Sunday night as robust wave ejects from developing upper low.
634 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue over our region into mid week with a warming trend.
652 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the west overnight and then offshore Sunday afternoon.
High pressure is building into the region aloft and clouds that were present earlier this evening have dissipated in large part. Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible tonight for much of the lower elevations. High pressure will build into the region overnight, eventually leading to clear skies at all terminals later tonight. Aloft, an upper level low will dig into the western CONUS heading into Sunday. Ridging spanning across the central United States will respond by both amplifying and shifting eastward, leading to locally increasing H5 heights.
After a night of light and often calm to variable winds, we will see a transition to strengthening southerly flow which will have implications for warmer temperatures Sunday as well as increasing hazards for those involved with marine or beach activities.
822 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. High pressure is centered over the OH/TN Valleys while a frontal boundary is stalled along the coast. Overnight lows expected to range from the lower 60s west to mid 60s east.
737 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure ridging into the region by tonight will bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
911 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 In the wake of a frontal passage, high pressure will build into the region for the balance of the holiday weekend, lingering across the eastern half of the U.
758 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana today and tonight.
315 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Upper level ridge axis extended north-south over the eastern Great Plains with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front bisected the Cowboy State northeast- southwest. As the cold front pushes east into western NE Sunday night, much cooler temperatures will spread into the region.
835 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the west overnight and then offshore Sunday afternoon.
For Sunday, A short wave trof will move into the High Plains. A jet streak will move into the High Plains as well.
Latest mesoscale guidance seems reasonable, and has storms continuing well into the night as an upper level short wave trough approaches.
1035 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 High pressure ridging into the region by tonight will bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure centered over northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee this evening has led to clear skies and calm winds. We also are expecting patches of fog to develop in the normal spots close to the Tennessee River, near bodies of water, and in a few rural, cooler spots.
906 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry through midweek, with a warming trend to above seasonal averages anticipated. Ridging will continue to build over the eastern US in response to a digging western trough.
938 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Pleasant evening ongoing with high pressure across the Ohio Valley. Beautiful but warm conditions expected for Sunday as high pressure remains firmly in place across the area. Abundant sunshine and the strong southerly flow will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. The trend of slightly warmer overnights will continue into Sunday night as dew points rise into the low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 60s expected.
A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana today and tonight.
An upper trough will move into the region tonight and Sunday and remain over Western Washington but weaken on Memorial Day.
A mid level area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico as seen in W/V imagery may generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the northern/central coastal waters overnight, but any shower development is expected to remain offshore.
643 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 An upper level wave was moving east of the area this afternoon and was bringing a westerly component to the low level winds, thus keeping low level moisture to a minimum. After roughly midnight the low level jet will increase and bring some stronger forcing to area east of the James River. Isolated severe storms will be possible with this activity and confidence in this is also on the lower side. However after about 3z a stronger wave will lift north through eastern NE and help back the low level flow.
645 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Tonight) Skies have become partly cloudy over the TN Valley this afternoon, as high pressure slowly slides eastward through the region.
1031 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue over our region into mid week with a warming trend.
525 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Upper level ridge axis extended north-south over the eastern Great Plains with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front bisected the Cowboy State northeast- southwest. As the cold front pushes east into western NE Sunday night, much cooler temperatures will spread into the region.
701 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Thickening and lowering mid level cloud this evening as a warm front lifts toward the region. Moisture quality remains limited with generally dry conditions holding at the lower layers. High pressure has resulted in quiet weather across lower MI to start the holiday weekend. Highs have risen into the low 70s with just slight airmass modification due to increased heights and sun today. There remains a slight chance of seeing some precipitation tonight as a mid level wave ripples along a developing warm frontal boundary. The system currently over WI and the Upper Peninsula will drift across Central MI tonight while decreasing in intensity and coverage as it enters a less favorable airmass with the drier ridge in place.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an impressive upper low just off the Oregon Coast. On Sunday afternoon westerly winds winds will pick up across the lower elevations with winds of 20-30 mph and gusts 40-45 mph especially Cascade gaps.
611 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) The mid and upper level subtropical ridge will keep conditions warm and dry across south central Texas through the remainder of this weekend. The lowest minimum humidities near 20 to the mid 20s and the breeziest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected across these areas.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Sfc ridging has begun to drift E of the Mid and Lower MS Valley this afternoon, evident of the diminishing cu field on the afternoon visible satellite imagery over Wrn TN and Cntrl/Ern MS. Meanwhile, that afternoon water vapor imagery depicts upper ridging extending from S TX NE over our region into the TN Valley, which will continue to expand Ewd and begin amplifying over the SE CONUS N into the OH Valley Sunday. However, any cigs should quickly mix out by late morning/midday, with strong insolation and increasing subsidence beneath the upper ridge yielding hotter and more humid conditions than what was observed this afternoon.
Cooler than normal conditions will continue across central California through the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. The developing trough over the western United States which has brought the cooler weather is also producing gusty winds over the Kern County mountain and desert areas as SFO-LAS surface pressure gradient has increased to 14. A few of the typically windier ridgetops have occasionally seen gusts over 60 mph today. In addition to wind and cooler temperatures, models depict sufficient moisture in this northwesterly flow to kick of some possible light upslope showers in the Kern County mountains, as indicated by a small area of 10 to 20 percent probabilities of precipitation in the blended guidance for tonight through Sunday morning.
Water vapor shows evolving upper trof over the western CONUS, with a strong jet streak over the Great Basin and distinct short wave over southeastern ID/northern UT. Main upper low will take shape over southern ID/northern UT on Sunday. Rather widespread convection will likely lift northeast across our zones Sunday night as robust wave ejects from developing upper low.
Current temperatures are in the low 70s. Dry weather will persist over the next several days as high pressure builds into the region.
444 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
High pressure aloft is expected to de-amplify by mid-week and become suppressed farther south as westerlies increase to the north. Significant uncertainty exists will low pressure development off the Southeast U. Stayed within MVFR limits for the time being given the low confidence for IFR conditions.
345 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Another nice day expected as the region remains under high pressure at both the surface and aloft. Picking up the extended on Monday night, area remains under a broad upper ridging with some low end Chance to Slight Chane PoPs dying off after sunset in SE GA.
Surface ridging extending across the peninsula from the W Atlantic coupled with mid-level ridging to our north over the SE U. Guidance indicates more uncertainty thereafter, with the ridging breaking down over the W Atlantic and a mid-/upper-level disturbance and weak surface reflection developing in its place before gradually lifting NE into the Atlantic during the latter half of the week. As for temps, most areas can expect temps a few degrees above normal today and Mon with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and a few pockets of mid 90s, followed by highs a little closer to normal for the remainder of the week in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge over Arkansas this morning will move east today. An upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and push into the Rockies Monday and Monday night.
1137 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the west overnight and then offshore Sunday afternoon.
This will be most evident on Monday as a portion of the expansive western CONUS trough closes off and treks northeastward toward the Dakotas. Sfc dew points will remain in the low to mid 60s through the day, especially to the east of where the sfc front sets up.
The presence of this moisture increases the chances of spotty high-based showers and storms during the cooler part of the day.