Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL VALUES. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WATER VAPOR AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. ) DECAY IN CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.
WV imagery shows yesterday's upper trough that was over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico has swung thru south Texas and in now over Houston, leaving a weak ridge in place from the Texas Panhandle to offshore of Baja. Again, model soundings favor the lower end of MOS guidance, and we see no reason to deviate much from that. Theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of the FA, oriented SW-NE.
306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN AND AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. MODELS SHOW MORE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
CLOSER TO A STALLED AND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THICKNESSES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AT 19Z.
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH TROUGH AXIS IN THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STEADY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country. with troughing over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the ridging. a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH to TX. a weak lee trough extended from the northern to central High Plains. beneath the trough axis and in the terrain. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and south out of our area. The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging aloft prevailing. models suggest that the Pac NW trough will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the ridge. and will force a cold front south thru the Plains.
SHWS MAY CONTINUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE.
252 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE SOUTHWARD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST.
238 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible) thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is building in from the southeast and also from the north/west.
PERSISTENT RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION RESIDES BETWEEN RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN TX. MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH WEAK TROUGHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned over the western United States. Towards the surface, a large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Lows overnight are progged to range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into the lower to mid 90s. Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level ridging and low level troughing.
LEE SURFACE TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS TO A MINIMUM. STUBBORN UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SOME MORSELS OF THIS MAY DRIFT E-NE AND CLIP OUR NW COUNTIES LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY MEANDERS EAST.
117 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK.
305 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across the southern and central plains, in between the broad southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper trough passes northeast over Nebraska. For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO deepens east into central KS. Highs in turn are raised a few degrees into the lower and middle 90s.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS. POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR STORMS AND THEN COOLER WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY. A MINOR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ROUND THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE WESTWARD DRIFTING UPPER RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK MONDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH AXIS/WEAKNESS WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. 8 INCHES WERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM WEST GULF TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND THIS TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 850MB. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE TROUGH TO PUSH WEST AND BRING DEEP MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
/issued 327 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ The upper ridge that brought all the hot wx to the region will continue to move away from the area.
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW IS KEEPING DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER ID. A MINOR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN TROF ON MON. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS TO NORTH MONDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z.
315 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER LAKES IS PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY. THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WOULD KEEP PRECIP AT A MINIMUM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING. THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR A MEAN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL HANG TOUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE THE ELEVATED HEATING SOURCES OF THE RIDGES IN WV/MD. MODELS SHOWING A SLOWER SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT APPROACHING LATE MONDAY. STILL THINK SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TAX WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEM QUITE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOW FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REMAIN RESIDENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
1203 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 WATER VAPOR AND THETA SURFACES SEEM TO SUGGEST THE MOISTURE CIRCULATING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ORIGINATING MORE FROM THE TROPICS THAN THE MONSOONAL REGION. THIS CENTRAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS ABOUT TO BE RELOCATING WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN CALI OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. EXPECT RIDGE TOP CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BLOSSOM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS.
126 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SUMMER WILL BE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OUT OF THE MIDWEST.
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS STUCK ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS TO JUST WEST OF HINCKLEY AT 19Z. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERCOLATE OVER NW WI TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EWD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE THUR-FRI TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI.
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A broad upper level high will be centered over the Desert Southwest today and will move further west over the northern Baja. Through tonight, the forecast area will be situated between the upper high to our west and an inverted upper trough stretching from the Texas Gulf coast northeast over the lower Mississippi Valley to our east. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with morning lows tomorrow in the lower 70s.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM PRIOR/12 UTC PLAINS TROF ENERGY CUTOFF. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS UPR RIDGE INFLUENCE PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN AZ/CA BORDER IS CONTINUING ITS TREK WESTWARD. GUIDANCE IS PROGGING IT TO MOVE TO AROUND PT CONCEPTION BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST.
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER LAKES IS PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY. THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WOULD KEEP PRECIP AT A MINIMUM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has migrated a little further west over the past 24 hrs, and is now centered over SoCal/SW AZ. Convection that developed over eastern NM last night developed SW around the ridge and into SE NM, w/isolated activity ongoing. Sfc flow has veering from E to SE over the past 24 hrs, and return/upslope flow will continue to promote development over the higher wrn terrain, where richer theta-e remains.
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 941 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ MID MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK LOW/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 "TROUGH" AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
333 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH UPPER AIR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW. WITH IS E/NE EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD TROUGHING RESPONSIBLE FOR BREAKING DOWN THAT RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE TO THE NW. THE HIGHER POPS /ESP THIS EVENING/ REMAIN ACROSS THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YET AGAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES BY MID MORNING ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U. TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND WAITING FOR THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BOOT IT EASTWARD TOWARD MID WEEK.
STILL EXPECT THE GREATER AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTH GA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH IS NEARER. /39 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
406 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A 587MB UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY HAS CREATED ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT AFTERNOON HEATING AND LIFT HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW IS MORE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KY AND TN. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH LOW LEVEL RH CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE. ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ALOFT WEAK MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST TOWARDS TEXAS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
337 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING REFRESHING TEMPERATURES AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL SPINNING ABOUT A CENTER OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM GULF REGION AS SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE LAYS ACROSS EASTERN U. AND MID STATE ON SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN INSITU AS WEAK SHORT WAVES WORK NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING TONIGHT FOR THE MID STATE WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONVECTION MAY BE SKIMPY AT TIMES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN U.
136 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR PERSISTING OUTSIDE OF THE CORES OF CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND EASING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MOST LIKELY THE REASONS FOR THIS HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE.
235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PLUMES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVER GOODLAND AND NORTON KANSAS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
403 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND THE SURFACE TROF LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FINALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT COOLER ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE COOLING. THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS BEEN THE REASON THE REGION HAS BEEN SO HOT AND DRY FOR THE LAST FOUR TO SIX WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW SITS ACROSS TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PATTERN CHANGE AS RIDGE IS NOW BACK OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTH OF FLORIDA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION WHILE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPING SE FLOW OVER THE AREA.
Otherwise, temperatures fall fall into the lower to mid 70s overnight.
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A clear and mild morning is underway across the region at this hour, as a broad area of high pressure remains in control. Temperatures tonight will then be a bit warmer compared to this morning, as southeasterly winds begin to advect in a warmer and more moist airmass.
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST/SE TEXAS COUPLED WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. MOST LIKELY THE REASONS FOR THIS HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION WILL INCH WESTWARD TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS WHILE A MID AND UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ARIZONA HEADS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 60S. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS YET TODAY HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH TEMPS NEARLY 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER TROF/SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE TX COAST WITH DRY AIR MOVING S/SW ACROSS OK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE TEMPS ARE MORE MODERATE DUE TO THE LACK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST PER AREA RADAR DATA AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS MIGRATE WESTWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE REGION.
Longwave trough currently moving into Montana and the Dakotas will gradually progress eastward over the northern tier of the CONUS while undergoing some amplification. A cold front currently stretches from central Nebraska into northwest Kansas.
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 SFC COLD FRONT IS SINKING SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AND IS SEPARATING THE MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO ENTER NORTHERN IOWA. CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
301 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS ALG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW VA LIKELY TO FADE W/ LOSS OF HEATING LT THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
High pressure will continue to build westward over the next day with daytime highs continuing to warm up to 100 degrees or better in the central valley.
MID TO UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH VIRTUALLY SPLITTING THE CWA IN HALF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH AND CONTENT IS GREATEST CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE COASTAL REACHES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE TO HELP OUT ANY CONVERGENCE /LIFT/ THAT TAKES PLACE AT THE SURFACE, IE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING. WILL ALSO INDICATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL AS THE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD.
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IS ASSOC W/ AN H7 CONVERGENCE BAND SEEN IN MODEL WIND FIELDS NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF AN H7 THETA-E RIDGE COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL S/WV COMING ACROSS AREA FROM THE NORTH. SO AFTN STORMS SHOULD FORM CLOSER TO THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE NM BORDER.