Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid to high level cloud cover will continue to increase this morning ahead of an upper low pushing north through the Southern Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow will continue to aid in bringing cloudy conditions to the area throughout the day today, as a slightly warmer tropical airmass is ushered in. There are still some timing discrepancies among models regarding the speed of the upper low, but believe rainfall should gradually begin to end from west to east Friday afternoon, as the center of the low tracks east over Tennessee. This system will not be quite as powerful as the one we saw this past weekend, so only expect temperatures to fall by a few degrees behind the cold frontal passage on Friday.
417 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 An upper low near the Texas Panhandle this morning will stretch across Oklahoma and Missouri. Light showers ahead of the cold front appendant to the low will slowly move across Louisiana today and Mississippi tonight. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter of an inch despite the high areal coverage. At the same time, a trough will be digging across the Great Lakes.
A mid level low pressure system and its surface reflection will slowly move out of the southern Plains today. Highs in the 40s/Lows in the 20s generally hold til some 50s/30s work back in as we start to ridge a little toward the mid week time frame. An approaching low pressure system is not expected to have significant impacts on aviation for most of the region, thus VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z.
425 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Strong radiational cooling will continue to keep temps below freezing early this morning until wrap around, from an upper level low over OK, moves into the Northern Permian Basin. Cloud cover should clear out by the afternoon but high temps will stay in the 40's area wide and 30s for the higher elevations.
An upper level ridge will continue to keep Montana mostly clear and dry today and into the weekend.
This is a few degrees warmer than the HRRR and RAP models. Tonight, an inverted warm front will drop south through the region. Large scale blocking should develop across the wrn U. featuring an upper low across the swrn U. and upper level ridging north of the low across the nrn Rockies.
234 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Upper ridge will dominate over the northern Rockies through the weekend, keeping warm and dry conditions over the region. Strong blocking trof over eastern North America will keep the Pacific low from progressing eastward, instead models drop it south toward Baja California. Meanwhile in the north, another trof moves through the Pacific northwest toward the northern plains by midweek.
951 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. Low pressure will bring a chance of precipitation late tonight through Friday night for areas southeast of I-71. High temps will nudge slightly warmer today in the lower to middle 40s with light southerly flow at the surface. The ECMWF is the fastest as it ejects the low through Tennessee. A cutoff upper low tracking east through Tennessee will see the northern extent of the precip eke into the southern and southeast CWA early Friday night and exit east towards daybreak.
439 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Currently there are showers on radar due to the cold front that is moving through the region.
Warm air advection will occur from the west/northwest leading to highs in the lower to middle thirties. We left most areas dry but did add a brief period of POPs for portions of Iron County due to northerly winds and cooler 850MB temperatures which may lead to some light lake effect precipitation. Clouds will gradually diminish on Friday and highs will be cooler than today with them ranging from the upper twenties to lower thirties. A western upper level ridge will be in place in some form through the rest of the period leading to north/northwest upper level flow across the Northland.
A nearly vertically stacked upper low/trough over northeast OK will shift slowly east-northeast today/tonight, gradually becoming more of a sw-ne oriented shear axis that will move through our area tonight. However, it is hard to find guidance that drops temperatures to freezing during this time, even in the higher elevations. Clouds will likely linger until the 850mb thermal trough begins to shift east of the area Thursday night and Friday.
430 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 A quiet 24-48 hours ahead across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle beneath a building upper-level ridge across the majority of the western CONUS.
645 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 The upper ridge currently over the southeast will gradually slide eastward through the period. A southern stream closed upper low will rotate into the lower MS River Valley by Friday. The closed low center associated with this system will be centered over along the AL/TN/GA border and will move NE through Sat morning. As this system moves through there will be more than enough moisture available for decent warm sector rainfall out before the cold front sweeps through the state Friday night. Instability looks to be minimal, though some may exist in a thin band just ahead of the cold front mainly across central GA.
333 AM PST Thu Dec 3 2020 Strong high pressure is expected through the weekend bringing a prolonged period of dry, stable, and seasonably cool conditions.
An overall lack of synoptic moisture over the region will keep us dry as these troughs move through as well.
There should be a little drainage wind in most places tonight, so lows will be about 10 degrees warmer as well, perhaps lagging a little in the coldest spots. All this is covered in the going forecast and near guidance, so the only adjustments were to remove the few clouds we had for today and to add a little more variety in tonight's lows based on expected winds--a couple degrees warmer in the thermal belts and a little colder in the coldest spots.
745 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Cool temperature will continue, precipitation chances return later on Friday and into the weekend as low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley. Relaxed, zonal flow aloft with swly flow at the surface will provide a mostly clear day to begin, with temperature warming into the low 40s this afternoon.
Another cold night across the mid state, but a little warmer than yesterday with temps currently in the mid 20s to around 30 at 2 am. Upper low will work its way eastward from the southern Plains today, and clouds will increase from the west during the day. The upper low slows a bit and stalls over AR according to the GFS/Canadian, but is a bit more progressive on the ECMWF/NAM.
613 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. Low pressure will bring a chance of precipitation late tonight through Friday night for areas southeast of I-71. However, high pressure at the surface will keep low levels dry. South to southwest winds at the surface will push highs into the lower to mid 40s. The ECMWF is the fastest as it ejects the low through Tennessee. A cutoff upper low tracking east through Tennessee will see the northern extent of the precip eke into the southern and southeast CWA early Friday night and exit east towards daybreak.
Elongated closed midlevel cyclone was tracking slowly east through Oklahoma at midnight. Widespread stratus will continue well into Thursday morning, with temperatures falling well below freezing through the 20s. Roads will become increasingly snow/ice packed overnight as temperatures fall further below freezing. Expecting the refrigeration effect to be strongest across/near Clark county, where temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. Quiet weather will continue through Friday, as the next closed low forms far away in northern Mexico. Full sunshine and moderating temperatures are expected, with areas off snowpack warming back to the lower 50s.
The upper level ridge will weaken today. However, areas of fog and freezing fog have already developed in valleys in Coos, Douglas, Curry and Josephine counties. Fog and freezing fog are expected to be dense at times, especially in Josephine and Douglas counties through early this morning. A dense fog advisory (Douglas County) and a freezing dense fog advisory (Josephine County) remain in effect for these areas (see the NPWMFR for details).
422 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Dry conditions will continue before precipitation chances return later on Friday and into the weekend as low pressure crosses to the south. Dry conditions will continue today as high pressure remains in control.
206 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Ridge of high pressure over the area will bring mostly sunny, dry and warmer conditions to the area.
We are looking at afternoon highs today a few degrees cooler than yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Cloud cover steadily thins in the north and west though may linger for much of the day in the southeast with the upper low not far away. Low-level warm-air advection still on track tonight into much of Friday with 850 mb temps 6-8 C above today's levels for a much warmer day under scattered mid and high cloud. The weekend periods become more dominated by northerly flow aloft with somewhat cooler temps.
620 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 In the 03/12Z TAFs, a lingering trough across our airspace will influence MVFR/IFR cigs/vis throughout this period. /Today through Tomorrow/ Surface analysis from this morning shows an area of weakening low pressure located over eastern Oklahoma with an occluded front extending south along the Texas/Louisiana line into the Houston area. From there, a cold front extends southwest into the Texas coast with a warm front hugging the Louisiana coastline. The only portion of the forecast for today that will need to be watched will be for any wrap around moisture that could flow into our northwestern zones as the low continues to track east. Expect slightly warmer conditions on Friday and sunshine slowly returns to the area, with highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s.
this seems to be mainly due to dry air moving in on the backside of the low, with forecast soundings indicating a loss of DGZ saturation. The latest guidance weakens the 500mb closed low through the day as it becomes an elongated positive tilt trough stretching from southwest NM up to the Midwest states by this evening. A new low tries to cutoff on the southwest side going into tomorrow, while the northern branch merges into a northern stream trough over the eastern CONUS.
A cold front extending from south central Louisiana out into the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move off to the east today and through the remaining terminals by 03/18Z. A surface wave of low pressure will move out of the Gulf along the front and into south central Louisiana by late morning. /issued 439 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/ Currently there are showers on radar due to the cold front that is moving through the region.
319 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 An upper level ridge will continue to keep Montana mostly clear and dry today and into the weekend.
206 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Upper level low will continue to lift out of the area this afternoon and evening. Some freezing drizzle could also briefly be seen toward sunrise across the ridge tops of northwest Arkansas where surface temperatures drop to near or just below freezing at some of the higher elevations before drizzle clears the area. Where fog does form, it is likely to be freezing fog as surface temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s across northern Oklahoma by tomorrow morning which could affect the morning drive in some locations.
/Issued 645 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2020/ The upper ridge currently over the southeast will gradually slide eastward through the period. A southern stream closed upper low will rotate into the lower MS River Valley by Friday. The closed low center associated with this system will be centered over along the AL/TN/GA border and will move NE through Sat morning. As this system moves through there will be more than enough moisture available for decent warm sector rainfall out before the cold front sweeps through the state Friday night. Instability looks to be minimal, though some may exist in a thin band just ahead of the cold front mainly across central GA.
/Issued 1017 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/ Patchy drizzle and spotty showers will persist through the day across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas as an upper level low traverses the area.
104 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Low pressure over northern Ontario continues to bring cooler temperatures to the region today. High pressure will build south of the region Friday.
254 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Mild high pressure will move east of the state tonight, bringing increasing clouds. Temperatures will be warmer then previous nights.
1027 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 A quiet 24-48 hours ahead across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle beneath a building upper-level ridge across the majority of the western CONUS.
900 AM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Upper ridge building across the Northern Rockies with a moderate northeast flow aloft over Colorado. There should be a little drainage wind in most places tonight, so lows will be about 10 degrees warmer as well, perhaps lagging a little in the coldest spots. All this is covered in the going forecast and near guidance, so the only adjustments were to remove the few clouds we had for today and to add a little more variety in tonight's lows based on expected winds--a couple degrees warmer in the thermal belts and a little colder in the coldest spots.
With the upper level low tracking east on Friday, we will stay under the dry northwest flow aloft most of the day. /Issued 216 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/ /Friday Onward/ As the nearby upper low finally departs on Friday, lingering cloud cover will accompany it eastward leading to clearing skies early in the morning.
There are indications that a low stratus deck and/or fog will develop along the western periphery of the high, which may approach the Turtle Mountains Friday morning. Model consensus 925 and 850 mb temperatures suggest slightly cooler highs than today, which is reflected in the forecast.
Cooler and drier through the rest of the week. A cold front extending from south central Louisiana out into the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move off to the east today and through the remaining terminals by 03/18Z. A surface wave of low pressure will move out of the Gulf along the front and into south central Louisiana by late morning. /issued 439 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/ Currently there are showers on radar due to the cold front that is moving through the region.
This low is expected to bring a shot of showers starting Friday morning and lasting through the day as the associated cold front pushes through the CWA. 0", with the highest totals in the N GA mountains.
144 PM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Upper ridge will dominate over the northern Rockies through the weekend, keeping warm and dry conditions over the region.
1249 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. Low pressure will bring a chance of precipitation late tonight through Friday night for areas southeast of I-71. High temps will nudge slightly warmer today in the lower to middle 40s with light southerly flow at the surface. The ECMWF is the fastest as it ejects the low through Tennessee. A cutoff upper low tracking east through Tennessee will see the northern extent of the precip eke into the southern and southeast CWA early Friday night and exit east towards daybreak.
149 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Extensive cloud cover across the region early this afteronon with upper low axis over the CWA. Did have some light snow last night, mainly over the higher terrain east of Springfield where a tenth of an inch up to near an inch of snow occurred, mainly over grassy areas. Temperatures mainly remained above freezing for the event which led to most of the snow melting as it reached near the ground. For tonight, the low stratus will likely persist through the night before beginning to diminish during the morning Friday. On Friday, we should see clearing in the morning hours with a mostly sunny sky developing by late morning through the afternoon, as the main upper low axis shifts east of the area.
At the surface, the low that has given us our weather thus far today continues its slow march eastward as well. The low has weakened, causing more widespread precipitation to diminish this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be similar to last night as they dip down into the low-30s for most locations with upper-20s across northeast MO and west-central IL.
This will allow for radiational cooling tonight resulting in low temperatures dropping into the 20s with the lowest temperatures in northwest Oklahoma. As this upper low that gave us snow moves out, we should begin to see a gradual warmup beginning tomorrow.
High pressure aloft over the Interior West will maintain dry conditions for the next several days. high pressure continuing to build into the state.
As high pressure shifts eastward, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the northern Gulf coast region, moving across the southeast. An associated cold front will be approaching the area Friday afternoon, with a few showers possible.
As upper level energy catches up to the trough, strengthening is expected.
This is evident in a few places, like Jackson Hole, where the bottom of the valley is in the mid teens, but the higher peaks of the Tetons are in the 30s, and in the Wind River Valley, where Lander is 20 degrees, while Dubois is in the mid 40s.
The areas with the snow and cloud cover have remained near to below freezing most of the day. Clouds should continue to clear out this evening which will allow temps to drop into the low 20s across the area. As the low pressure system departs the area to the east, tomorrow will be fairly benign with northerly winds and clear skies. The next low pressure system is expected to cross south of the area over the weekend. They take the low down the coast and drop it back out in the Pacific as a closed low that then opens up at varying speeds based on the model as it comes across the Rockies.
246 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 An area of mainly mid/high clouds dropping down the ridge centered to our west will continue to move through the eastern portion of the area into this evening, otherwise mostly clear skies will predominate through the short term. We'll remain under the influence of dry northwesterly flow aloft as weak surface ridging slowly builds in from the west.
The low clouds will break quickly this evening and winds will become light. For Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
The low clouds will break quickly this evening and winds will become light. For Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. (Friday night through next Thursday) Both ECMWF and GFS seem to handle the digging upper level trough across northern Mexico quite well.
319 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will persist through tonight.
131 PM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 The CWA was sandwiched between a upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough from the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains. Some thin cirrus clouds were spreading northeast to southwest over the high plains.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 42 54 37 45 / 10 20 70 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 37 52 37 42 / 0 10 70 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 37 51 36 41 / 0 20 70 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 34 54 37 40 / 0 0 70 60 20.
324 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Mild high pressure will move east of the state tonight, bringing increasing clouds. Temperatures will be warmer then previous nights.
Much quieter weather expected in the short term period and beyond as high pressure builds across the CWA and upper level ridging through the Rockies and high plains.
138 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 High pressure will shift offshore tonight. A low pressure system will bring rain during Friday and Friday night.
While the timing and locations are suspect - the ECMWF does capture this well and each of the waves does appear to erode the Western US ridge. This flattening could lead to a better chance of phasing The area continues to be on the back end of large scale upper troughing with northwest flow allowing for dry weather. A stronger pressure gradient at the base of the trough is allowing for gusty winds between 20 and 25 kts to reach the surface for a few hours this afternoon before dying down early this evening.
1017 AM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 Patchy drizzle and spotty showers will persist through the day across eastern Oklahoma and western arkansas as an upper level low traverses the area.
1202 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 Cool temperature will continue, precipitation chances return on Friday and into the weekend as low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley. Relaxed, zonal flow aloft with swly flow at the surface will provide a mostly clear day to begin, with warm advection prompting highs to rise into the low 40s this afternoon. Overcast sky overnight will result in a low temperature near freezing tonight. Overall the pattern is looking warmer, and the progression is trending faster so the chance for lake enhanced snow showers following widespread rain/snow has decreased.
Unlike the past few nights, low temperatures should remain well above freezing (low/mid 40s), which should keep winter weather worries at bay this time.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 54 37 45 32 / 20 70 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 52 37 42 30 / 10 70 60 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 51 36 41 29 / 20 70 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 54 37 40 27 / 0 70 60 20 0.
135 PM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Water vapor show upper ridge over the western CONUS that is highly amplified through the Northern Rockies. At the surface, rather large pressure gradient extends between a high over the Northern/Central Rockies to trof over the Great Lakes.
306 PM EST Thu Dec 3 2020 A mid-level low pressure center is slowly advancing eastward from the Oklahoma/Missouri border. While at the surface, a low pressure trough, ahead of the mid level low, is following the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys northward. This trough is giving moisture a channel to be isotropically lifted, and as the system moves east, the CWA can expect increasing low level moisture which will result in lowering clouds and rainfall. Dry conditions should persist through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
245 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020 WV imagery shows an elongated upper trough extending from MO southwest to southern NM, w/the southern lobe in the process of cutting off over northern Sonora. The ridge looks to generally remain in place through the weekend, w/no sign of appreciable return flow resuming anytime soon.
Wind should avoid going calm overnight which should help keep temperatures a shade warmer than last night's values. Afternoon temperatures from the low to mid 40s east of I-29 will give way to upper 40s to mid 50s west of the James River. Upper level ridging amplifies to our west into the weekend with our immediate area void of any upper level support.
130 PM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rocky mountain region with a resulting decreasing northeast flow aloft over Colorado.
1223 PM MST Thu Dec 3 2020 Quiet weather will end the week and continue into the weekend as high pressure ridging will continue to dominate the northern Rockies.
The low pressure system bringing us a taste of wintry weather is currently centered over the MO/AR border and is slowly moving east. Generally temperatures are above freezing, except where there has been more moderate precipitation, which has caused evaporative cooling. So far, impacts have been minimal (road temperatures are above freezing), but can't rule out some slick spots developing where a wintry mix is being observed.
High pressure currently influencing the region will move off towards the northeast this evening shifting the prevailing flow to become more out of the southeast overnight. High temperatures for the afternoon are going to be in the 60s and potentially even the lower 70s for areas south of I-10.