Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Another humid morning across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the lower 80s as of 3 AM. The Mid-South will get placed under northwest flow again as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and a trough builds to our east. This setup could lead to temperatures trending back into the lower 90s through the weekend.
608 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 It's been quiet/dry during the predawn hours with cooler temps in the 50s and 60s in the post frontal airmass.
Weak high pressure ridging continues across the area with associated weak gradient. Weak mid-level troughing along the southeast U. Weak ridging with associated weak pressure gradient remain in place.
Given the positioning of the front across the CWA and associated cloud cover, afternoon highs will top out in the low- to mid-80s roughly north of I-70 in MO and IL and in the upper-80s south of I-70.
Subtropical Ridging remains over Texas. Subsidence under the Ridge and moisture levels near seasonal levels indicate no rain for most of South Central Texas. Thermal ridging maintains ongoing high and low temperatures. Near seasonal humidity levels are expected as dewpoints mix lower each afternoon resulting in heat index values only slightly warmer than actual temperatures.
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Skies were mostly clear early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the cranberry bogs of Central Wisconsin to the low 60s in far Southwest Wisconsin. Patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, with a mostly sunny day expected under high pressure. Highs are expected to be seasonable in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the 50s providing very comfortable weather. With high pressure providing a deep light wind layer tonight, will have to watch out for some valley fog, but increasing return flow by early morning may not be conducive for a more widespread valley fog event.
1013 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front will approach from the west today, and pass through tonight and Wednesday. Low clouds are lifting out of the Lower Susq River Valley and should dissipate almost completely by 15z. Will keep low POPs in for these areas this morning before more general CHC pops are advertised for all this afternoon thanks to the arrival of short wave trough by early in the afternoon.
Similar fire weather concerns for Wednesday As ridge axis shifts east and much drier air moves into our eastern fire weather zones all the way to the Panhandle.
747 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Instability looks less than yesterday, with all major models holding us below 2000 j/kg of CAPE with warmer mid levels (LIs of -2 to -4). Expect highs in the low-mid 90s this afternoon. Low to mid level trough across the region extending into the coastal waters.
Highs this afternoon will be couple of degrees cooler in that area versus the mid 80s in the south where winds have already shifted and dew points have started to rise. Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 80s. Southwest flow aloft sets up for the latter half of the week as an upper low moves across northern Alberta.
High pressure will keep the area mostly sunny and dry today with high temperatures in the 80s. Tonight, high pressure slides off to the east and the low level flow becomes more southerly and starts to advect more humid air into the region. Dewpoints will be on the rise into the low to mid 60s in the eastern CWA, and will approach 70 in the western part of Minnesota making things feel pretty muggy. Westerly mid-flow prevails through the remainder of the work week, and then a western trough ejects east to reach the north central CONUS for the weekend.
1051 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Instability looks less than yesterday, with all major models holding us below 2000 j/kg of CAPE with warmer mid levels (LIs of -2 to -4). Expect highs in the low-mid 90s this afternoon. Low to mid level trough across the region extending into the coastal waters.
855 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A front stalls across north Florida today as weak ridging remains across the local area. Highs are on track to again reach into the lower to mid 90s with heat index values around 105. This will continue through mid-week as weak ridging remains over the waters. Stronger Atlantic ridging builds in for the end of the week, bringing a more steady E/SE flow with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast.
303 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Sprawling high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will maintain its western extent over the Upper Midwest thru late tonight, making for a gradual increase in high clouds from the west but otherwise mainly clear and cool conditions tonight with lows down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A small buckle in the upper level zonal flow combined with the approach of a warm front over the northern-central Plains may be just enough to spark a few isolated-scattered showers and t-storms overnight in western MN which may spread across the rest of the WFO MPX coverage area during the day tomorrow.
Currently, there is an area of arcing thunderstorms skirting the northern portions of the forecast area, ahead of an approaching upper low over Oklahoma. Further south, slight ridging is occurring, keeping the atmosphere capped in the short term. The upper low is progged to slide east through this afternoon, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across the entire area through late evening. /issued 410 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Another humid morning across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the lower 80s as of 3 AM. The Mid-South will get placed under northwest flow again as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and a trough builds to our east. This setup could lead to temperatures trending back into the lower 90s through the weekend.
334 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Today has been one of our drier days this week with a pop up shower or thunderstorm here and there and we should remain generally on the low side in regards to coverage in our area.
There will be ample instability for convection, but little in the way of a forcing mechanism as the trough over the Midsouth is likely not to have much influence over tomorrow's convective potential.
High pressure will push our above average heat to near record levels the second half of the week.
Later this afternoon or evening, a closed upper-level system of low pressure will slowly traverse across the British Columbia-Alberta border in Canada. As this trough digs south and moves east, a dry cold front will swing through western Montana and central Idaho this evening. The front will bring cooler, drier air and high winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from this afternoon through Wednesday evening for southwest Montana, where relative humidity will drop down into the lower teens.
1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Skies were mostly clear early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the cranberry bogs of Central Wisconsin to the low 60s in far Southwest Wisconsin. Patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, with a mostly sunny day expected under high pressure. Highs are expected to be seasonable in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the 50s providing very comfortable weather. With high pressure providing a deep light wind layer tonight, will have to watch out for some valley fog, but increasing return flow by early morning may not be conducive for a more widespread valley fog event.
and without a real change in airmass agree with the midnight forecast that warmer than guidance is needed. This is still a degree higher than the going forecast and 6 degrees warmer than the MAV. Weak mid and upper level ridging will act to reduce convection, some, through early or mid afternoon. Then, a trough upstream will begin to slowly move our way with activity picking up to our west.
The region remains under a ridge aloft that stretches from Northern Mexico. At the surface a ridge remains centered along the northern gulf coast/around Southeast Louisiana. Wednesday the upper ridge centered over Mexico will begin to shift west. A light onshore flow is expected through the weekend as high pressure remains along the northern gulf coast.
The remainder of the week will remain warmer than normal and unsettled, with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. It is looking more and more likely that thunderstorms will kick off out ahead of an approaching cold front and enter our northwestern counties by late this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will give way to a trough rotating out of the Ohio Valley today. A much warmer than normal air mass will combine with high dew points to produce heat indices between 90 and 95 degrees across portions of the northern and western forecast area. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough late Tuesday afternoon, especially after 4 PM. Weak high pressure will build up from the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday.
Sunshine and fair weather cumulus clouds have been ample across Nebraska and Iowa today as high pressure built in across the area.
Waa in advance of short wave trough in WY early this morning was bringing some mid level accas showers/storms in eastern WY. Otherwise, the main short wave trough in WY will bring the main round of showers and storms to our cwa later this afternoon and night. Good ll moisture and instability will continue to advect in through the day in advance of this short wave trough. This first round of convection will end Wednesday morning with more development possible in the afternoon with another short wave trough coming in from the southwest.
Temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees warmer Wednesday with SPS conditions likely as heat indices range from 105 to 109 degrees with isolated higher amounts possible.
Overall think better chances for precip will be near the KS/OK borders on the eastern edge of the upper ridge buiding over the southwest US.
208 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. The models show a mid level trough over the eastern Carolinas and Georgia and a closed low over the central MS Valley, slowly moving east.
301 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 259 PM CDT With a drier airmass moving in behind yesterday's impressive derecho, quiet conditions will continue through tomorrow as high pressure centers over the area this evening. Subsidence aloft and high pressure at the surface should help limit any precip chances through Wednesday. Temperatures during the day will be slightly warmer than today with highs in the mid 80s. East winds will result in cooler temps near the lake in the upper 70s.
1149 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Cloud line development is ongoing over the Lower Keys right now, thanks for east-northeast flow that helps align the clouds parallel to the island chain. This will happen soon after the subtropical ridge over South Florida lifts northward to Central Florida. Be on the lookout for waterspouts through early-mid afternoon under formative convective cells near the Lower Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis across South Florida will lift northward to Central Florida on Wednesday, bringing an increase to moderate easterly breezes across the waters.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid-level high pressure continues to build across West Texas, with little change expected to the forecast.
/Issued 1100 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Upper low / MCV, currently located over northeast Oklahoma late this morning, will continue shifting slowly eastward today.
Models show less moisture in the low levels through tomorrow morning, so have held off on introducing any low clouds for Wednesday morning. May be a focus for attempted convection this afternoon but given the strengthening ridge aloft, getting anything to develop looks really difficult.
Visible satellite imagery showed moderate CU forming over the higher terrain as convective temperatures were reached. Also, raised afternoon temperatures for the high plains by a couple degrees. Similar fire weather concerns for Wednesday As ridge axis shifts east and much drier air moves into our eastern fire weather zones all the way to the Panhandle.
Today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Cold front Wednesday looks stronger than it did yesterday.
An upper trough continues to push out of the forecast area this morning with high pressure over the southern part of the Desert Southwest and Mexico. Temperatures will be warmer today, topping out in the 90s across the area.
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 An island cloud line has been active today over the Lower Keys, in east-northeast low-mid level flow.
Currently, there is an area of arcing thunderstorms skirting the northern portions of the forecast area, ahead of an approaching upper low over Oklahoma. Further south, slight ridging is occurring, keeping the atmosphere capped in the short term. The upper low is progged to slide east through this afternoon, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across the entire area through late evening. /issued 643 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Another humid morning across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the lower 80s as of 3 AM. The Mid-South will get placed under northwest flow again as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and a trough builds to our east. This setup could lead to temperatures trending back into the lower 90s through the weekend.
Clear to partly cloudy skies prevail this morning; the forecast remains on track with temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 80s. Highs this afternoon will be couple of degrees cooler in that area versus the mid 80s in the south where winds have already shifted and dew points have started to rise. Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 80s. Southwest flow aloft sets up for the latter half of the week as an upper low moves across northern Alberta.
351 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 The upper ridging that was dominating the southern tier of the CONUS is losing ground to a wave/storm system moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley this evening. Tomorrows temps again should be well into the 90s, though a boundary drifting across the northern tier of the state may result in some cooler temps just to the north. Given the trend of the NBM of late to undercut the lower temps and overdo the pops.
This is a lower confidence period with increasing instability and at some point a cold frontal passage.
and without a real change in airmass agree with the midnight forecast that warmer than guidance is needed. This is still a degree higher than the going forecast and 6 degrees warmer than the MAV.
As the high amplifies, it will flatten some allowing for westerly winds aloft and advecting drier air into the area. Upper level high pressure to our west will migrate eastward with increasing heights and thicknesses.
For this afternoon and evening, it will be the inverted trough west of the CWA for the focus of rw/trw initiation. Area radar is showing some convection already forming along the trough west of the CWA.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
Lows will range from the low 60s in the north to the upper 60s to the south.
1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Updated Aviation Section (Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020) Today through Wednesday: High pressure is expected to move slowly east across the region today and tonight, then move slowly east of the region on Wednesday. The high will bring quiet weather with mostly clear skies to the area during this period.
High pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that moved thru our area yesterday. Models continue to be in excellent agreement with increased ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. Very Warm then Cooler.
While actual high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s won't be much warmer than today, heat indices will generally reach the 90s. The exception will be locations on and east of the Coteau where highs are limited to the low 80s. An upper trof over the Pacific NW will gradually spread across the Northern Plains through the first half of the weekend.
The region will be between high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure to the northwest at the surface. A trough of low pressure at 500mb is present over region this afternoon, with a short wave moving south southeast across area. Weak high pressure aloft expected Wednesday, which would lead to slower moving storms, and increase the potential for heavy rain, as precipitable water values remain around 2.
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Cooler and drier air will remain over the area tonight through tomorrow. The cold front that has moved through the area will remain close to southeast Illinois, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Illinois late tonight through tomorrow. The cold front has moved through most of the CWA, but still remains close to southeast counties.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 73 91 73 / 20 60 20 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 72 90 72 / 20 50 20 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 71 91 71 / 10 60 20 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 89 68 88 69 / 20 70 30 80 30.
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front will drop through central Illinois today. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Chicago metro southwestward to near Kirksville, Missouri. High pressure will build into north-central Illinois tonight, pushing the front further southward toward the Ohio River. High pressure will dominate the weather across much of central Illinois on Wednesday.
HREF ensemble members give confidence to a group of storms moving eastwards into the area overnight aided by the low-level jet, with instability decreasing after midnight likely ending our severe thunderstorms chances while general thunderstorms will remain possible into the early morning hours. Over the weekend, a cold front is going to be moving through the area ushering in cooler air to start off the work week.
1042 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front will drop through central Illinois today. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Chicago metro southwestward to near Kirksville, Missouri. High pressure will build into north-central Illinois tonight, pushing the front further southward toward the Ohio River. High pressure will dominate the weather across much of central Illinois on Wednesday.
High pressure across northern Missouri has resulted in light and variable winds, and temperatures in the low 80s. Strong heating across the High Plains looks to initiate convection by Wednesday afternoon.
The subtropical ridge remains centered generally over West Texas. High pressure at the surface is centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA are from the southeast to southwest. Subsidence under the ridge will keep rain out of most areas. The upper ridge will be a bit stronger and suppress nearly all convection Wednesday.
No major changes were needed for the afternoon update as weak, mid- level troughing is crossing with a weak sfc frontal boundary in tow. Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh.
Although northwesterly steering flow aloft will persist based on the orientation of the mid-level ridge, it is expected to gradually weaken throughout the afternoon, resulting in progressively slower storm motions. Another muggy night is forecast, with lows in the lower 70s. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should be limited a tad into the lower 90s. Shower activity should once again taper off Wed evening with a loss of daytime heating, with lows in the lower 70s.
1209 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front is exiting southeastern Michigan and so is the sct-bkn mvfr ceilings accompanying it. High pressure will move in overnight and continue over the area Wednesday. This is where the western flank of the fully mature MCV has left to brush through coincident with the cold front. Considerable coverage of low clouds to start the day breaks up during late morning to early afternoon in time to allow high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure gains traction over the Great Lakes tonight bringing clear sky, light wind, and pleasant temperatures settling to lows in the upper 50s outside of metro Detroit. This kicks off a stretch of favorable weather anchored by high pressure lasting through the mid and late week period.
However, a slow moving 500mb upper level low will begin approaching from the west, and we could see some mid to high level clouds push in ahead of it and even some isolated showers/storms develop after midnight west of I-65.
322 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 (Issued 322 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure with dry air will remain in control tonight through Wednesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be just a little warmer than today.
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 The surface cold front has now cleared south of the state line as post-frontal dry air continues to fill in across SE MI, where PW values around. Only a modest thermal response has been felt with the passage of the front as temperatures reside in the low to mid 80s through the afternoon, but an ongoing drop in dew point temperatures down into the 50s will make it considerably more comfortable outside. Ongoing subsidence from the influence of high pressure and zonal flow aloft will produce a similar temperature response with dry weather through the midweek period, where daytime highs will peak in the mid to upper 80s (cooler across the Thumb with light northeast flow) for a high and drop into the low to mid 60s for a low.
1100 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Upper low / MCV, currently located over northeast Oklahoma late this morning, will continue shifting slowly eastward today.
320 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Thunderstorms expected into tonight with a passing cold front. Thunderstorm activity will increase this evening as a cold front pushes into western NY. High pressure builds in from the west tomorrow and the forecast is looking more and more dry as frontal boundary dips well south of the region. Temperatures will be cooler than today but highs will still be well into the 80s, however humidity will be much lower.
It's been quiet/dry during the predawn hours with cooler temps in the 50s and 60s in the post frontal airmass.
Included a pre-first period for the highest pops in this area.
Weak, mid-level troughing continues to cross the area, with an associated weak sfc front. Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh.
The best consistency in CAM solutions show the higher intensity of storms across northwest SD and a second max across southwest to south central SD this evening. Diffluent flow aloft will increase across the region tomorrow as an upper low strengthens across western Canada. Cooler air will push into the region toward the end of the week, along with lower chances for late day storms.
810 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The models show a mid level trough over the eastern Carolinas and Georgia and a closed low over the central MS Valley, slowly moving east.
Overall think better chances for precip will be near the KS/OK borders on the eastern edge of the upper ridge building over the southwest US.