Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warming trend will occur through mid to late week as high pressure strengthens over California. The latest 24 hour trend has many locations running a few degrees warmer than yesterday as well. So why the sunshine? High pressure that's been lurking offshore the last few days is finally building over CA. The building high pressure will be the main weather story for the upcoming week with several impacts: near record to record breaking heat by midweek, periods of offshore winds, lowering humidities to critical levels, and increasing fire weather concerns. Based on the pattern, offshore flow, 500mb heights, and 850 mb temperatures raised temperatures on the warmer end of the forecast envelop. Offshore flow: As the ridge is moving overhead today offshore flow has already developed.
440 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 The combination of cold air advection, steep 925-900 mb lapse rates, and low level moisture has resulted in the possibility of freezing drizzle in southeast Minnesota through 3 PM and northeast Iowa through 5 PM. For tonight, high pressure will gradually build across the area. The chances for some light precipitation will be tied to a couple of short wave troughs moving through the flow.
Winds will stay breezy over the plains, which will likely allow temperatures to stay near to above freezing for much of the night.
Our roller coaster ride of temperatures continues heading into the new week, with Monday forecast to be notably warmer than today as westerly winds promote efficient mixing across the region.
206 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary arctic boundary just north and east of the forecast area, with high pressure over the Rockies.
High pressure will build again behind the front, with clear skies and light northerly winds expected for the overnight period.
310 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front will pass through central Illinois tonight, possibly triggering a few snow flurries or some very light freezing drizzle. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City. As a result, think the chance for freezing drizzle has greatly diminished. Have therefore only mentioned a slight chance for freezing drizzle/snow flurries for a few hours as the front passes through central Illinois. Once the cold front pushes into Indiana, cold and dry weather will return for Monday with highs remaining in the 20s. Several weak cold fronts will swing through the Midwest through the extended.
548 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front is beginning to move into the forecast area as of 20z and it will slowly slide southeast across the region tonight. Byrd With a strong ridge over western CONUS and longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS, the forecast area remains in the active northwest flow.
647 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 New Information added to update section Have updated to increase pops, expand the coverage of freezing drizzle and adjust snow/ice accumulations. The combination of the slow moving cold front and the approach of a fairly potent short- wave trough have combined to produce numerous snow showers across parts of north central and far northeast WI, and areas of freezing drizzle across central WI. The freezing drizzle is expected to shift east into the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas in the next couple hours. The cold front will be exiting over northern Lake Michigan by mid to late evening, and think the light snow will be ending by around 9 pm over northeast WI with loss of mid-level moisture. High pressure will be over the area, which should lead to quiet conditions for the most part.
At the sfc we have been windy and cooler than yesterday, but with much less cloud cover than was expected. At the sfc winds will become mainly westerly with weak, broad troughing. We'll be warmer than today with highs back up into the 50s and breezy winds.
Cold front moving through the area overnight will shift/increase NNW to N winds during the day tomorrow.
854 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure remains over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi River Valleys this evening. /issued 159 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022/ A ridge of high pressure over New England and stretching back into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley is bringing sunny skies to the Mid-South this afternoon. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the forecast area are in the 40s across most locations as southerly winds on the back side of high pressure have helped to moderate temperatures across the region today. High pressure will bring another night of clear skies and precipitation free weather. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and slightly warmer than last night. Short term models indicate a weak cold front will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday but no precipitation is expected with this front.
Otherwise, high pressure and northwesterly winds will keep the atmosphere dry and suppress afternoon Cu field development through the period. A weak upper low on the Gulf coast and another weak cold front will be arriving into our four state area and will shift winds to NW before daybreak. This weak cold front will basically keep highs in the mid 50 range again tomorrow.
Developing low pressure moving along the East Coast and an approaching dry cold front late in the period will bring an increase in clouds to sites, but expect to remain VFR.
Low temperatures will range from the low-20s across southern Missouri to upper teens across central Missouri.
/NEW/ /Now through Monday Night/ Clear skies prevail across the region this evening with light winds ahead of another approaching cold front.
326 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Summary: Warmer weather with some chances of snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation this week. Mostly cloudy skies prevail for most of the region this afternoon due to a combination of an upper level trough passing through and some low-level mixing with cool northwesterly flow. High pressure will pass through tonight and bring some partial clearing, but some weak embedded upper level cyclonic vorticity advection will keep some weak lift around to support some clouds. Warm air advection ahead of an approaching upper level ridge will result in highs in the teens.
A weak low pressure system passing by to our east this evening will result in dry and breezy conditions through Monday. A warming trend is then expected through midweek as high pressure builds across the intermountain West. PWATs remain below average and no precipitation is expected from this trough. Slightly cooler conditions are likely Monday in the wake of the trough. Thereafter, a warming trend is anticipated through the week as a series of ridges build across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS.
604 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front will pass through central Illinois tonight, possibly triggering a few snow flurries or some very light freezing drizzle. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City. As a result, think the chance for freezing drizzle has greatly diminished. Have therefore only mentioned a slight chance for freezing drizzle/snow flurries for a few hours as the front passes through central Illinois. Once the cold front pushes into Indiana, cold and dry weather will return for Monday with highs remaining in the 20s. Several weak cold fronts will swing through the Midwest through the extended.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis shows an elongated trough across the central portion of the country with a slow eastward movement, and a ridge building over the western portion of the country.
Forecast Key Points: - Well above average temperatures this week - Dry conditions this week - Elevated fire danger this Week A weak cold front has pushed through the area. Temperatures cloud climb into the low 60s across portions of the area.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Take Home Points: *Broken record forecast with region stuck in a persistent NW flow/semi-active pattern through the forecast *Mostly seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures *Predominantly dry forecast continues, N/NE areas most likely to see any precip Discussion: It was another breezy day across the state, but instead of the warmer southerly winds of yesterday, cold frontal passage yielded NW winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph and falling temperatures. The good news though is that much of the state will continue to reside on the warmer side of the NW flow pattern.
Some of the models depict enough low-level convergence along this inverted trough for clouds to develop in the pre-dawn hours. If these clouds do not form, there is a much higher chance for some patchy fog/freezing fog in the valleys of northeast Alabama. Not much change to the forecast in the short term, as high temperatures look very similar on Monday, topping out in the lower 50s. A positively tilted upper trough axis will begin to center over the Valley tomorrow night, and a dry front is expected to move through the area.
This is occurring in combination with strong warm advection ahead of and advancing warm front moving into central North Dakota. A warm front is situated over western North Dakota late this afternoon. There area some light reflectivities associated with the warm front, but as of yet haven't seen any ground truth of precipitation reaching the round. A weak ridging pattern then sets up for Monday bringing more of a warm westerly flow pattern to the area.
A ridge to the west that will slide eastward this week will result in dry conditions with building valley inversions in northern Utah.
531 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Summary: Warmer weather with some chances of snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation this week. Mostly cloudy skies prevail for most of the region this afternoon due to a combination of an upper level trough passing through and some low-level mixing with cool northwesterly flow. High pressure will pass through tonight and bring some partial clearing, but some weak embedded upper level cyclonic vorticity advection will keep some weak lift around to support some clouds. Warm air advection ahead of an approaching upper level ridge will result in highs in the teens.
The cold front will be exiting over northern Lake Michigan by mid to late evening, and think the light snow will be ending by around 9 pm over northeast WI with loss of mid-level moisture. High pressure will be over the area, which should lead to quiet conditions for the most part.
420 PM EST Sun Feb 06 2022 A developing coastal low will spread rain across the area Monday with a brief period of freezing rain possible Monday morning. The low will leave Monday evening allowing for high pressure to build in with moderating temperatures. There may be a brief window of light freezing rain early Monday A positively tilted trough will slowly drift eastward as rapid upper level acceleration overspreads the Mid-Atlantic leading to enhanced upper divergence during the day on Monday.
/issued 136 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022/ This morning's cold front has brought little in the way of cooler temperatures, being more of a wind shift with some gusty north winds behind it. Modest thicknesses increases Monday point to high temperatures a little warmer than those of this afternoon and in line with MOS numbers.
559 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A warm front is situated over western North Dakota late this afternoon. There area some light reflectivities associated with the warm front, but as of yet haven't seen any ground truth of precipitation reaching the round. A weak ridging pattern then sets up for Monday bringing more of a warm westerly flow pattern to the area.
516 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level trough continues to become more negatively tilted and elongated, sending a corresponding cold front through the southern plains. With the close proximity of the upper level trough, we may see a few mid to high level clouds overnight but skies in most places should be clear to mostly clear.
A weak ridging pattern then sets up for Monday bringing more of a warm westerly flow pattern to the area.
Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the lower 50s across much of the Valley, as large scale subsidence and dry air keeps sunny skies around. Could see some patchy fog/freezing fog development, but confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Not much change to the forecast in the short term, as high temperatures look very similar on Monday, topping out in the lower 50s. A positively tilted upper trough axis will begin to center over the Valley tomorrow night, and a dry front is expected to move through the area.
Across the rest of the area, temperatures in the low teens were found. Behind it upper level ridging will bring WAA into the area. H92 temps of just above freezing sneak into the west by 21z. CAMs again have temps in the west above freezing and in some cases well towards the low 40s. The rest of the area will likely see highs some 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1046 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 (06Z TAFS) Mid/upper-level clouds assocd with slow moving mid-level trof resulting in BKN sky cover at HOB/CNM/PEQ through around 10Z. (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper levels have a trough extending from Canada to the Rockies that swings down through NM today while a ridge remains centered along the CA coast. This trough will slowly move into W TX tonight and pass on to Central TX Monday. Overall expect similar to a bit cooler high temperatures tomorrow in the 40s and 50s. One model tries to skirt the edge of Presidio County tonight with showers as the trough comes through but the rest are dry so not expecting any precip through Monday night.
255 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 A sharp upper level trough extending from southern Ontario continues its course southeast across our region early this morning, with surface winds gradually backing from the north to northwest by sunrise. Continued northwest flow aloft and easing surface winds after sunset this evening will produce another cooler than normal overnight into early Tuesday, especially in our northwest zones where lows will drop into the teens, otherwise mid/upper 20s in most other locations. The upper air pattern this week continues to have a strong ridge of high pressure along the west coast and northwest to northerly flow coming down from Canada into the central plains of the U.
A weak cold front will move across the area today but with little more than some clouds, a switch to northwest winds, and a slight reduction in high temperatures from yesterday.
A cold front will move through the region on Monday, bringing a slight chance for precipitation. High pressure then builds back into the region on Tuesday. High level clouds increase overnight ahead of an approaching surface cold front. The melting snow is aiding the low level RH in the development of this fog. The upper level trough will swing through the Great Lakes region Monday into Monday night with an associated cold front moving east across our area during the day on Monday. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 20s in the northwest to the lower 40s in our southeast. As a result, some freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain/light snow may all be possible with any pcpn that falls.
232 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle are possible early this morning and may lead to some slick spots on roads and parking lots.
Extremely dry conditions will continue today into tonight as a northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while west-northwesterly downsloping only enhances a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels across the region. With the influence of westerly downsloping continuing through tonight, expect lows only down into the mid/upper 20s(F) to possibly the lower 30s(F).
1032 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front is beginning to move into the forecast area as of 20z and it will slowly slide southeast across the region tonight. Byrd With a strong ridge over western CONUS and longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS, the forecast area remains in the active northwest flow. After a warm up on Tuesday with highs around 10 degrees above normal, another weak cold front will slide south through the region Tuesday night. Clouds associated with the cold front will keep temperatures even warmer than the previous night.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough from the Great Lakes region to New Mexico and then bending down toward the southern end of the Baja Peninsula. At the surface winds were generally light from the north with high pressure centered over New Mexico. The upper trough will move across Texas today and tonight and a low amplitude ridge will build in behind it.
330 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Light wintry precip today -- We will be monitoring freezing drizzle changing to snow set to arrive in time to be a nuisance for the morning drive. Models have been more bullish with precip production on our side of the lake, perhaps due to moisture contribution from Lake Michigan but also slight strengthening of the low. There has already been freezing drizzle developing between Traverse City and Ludington, and it is expected to spread toward southwest Michigan prior to daybreak. Behind the cold front which is currently passing through, progressively colder air at 850 mb and higher inversion heights will support an increasing likelihood of cloud glaciation and therefore a change to lake-effect snow showers by mid morning.
1122 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 The combination of cold air advection, steep 925-900 mb lapse rates, and low level moisture has resulted in the possibility of freezing drizzle in southeast Minnesota through 3 PM and northeast Iowa through 5 PM. For tonight, high pressure will gradually build across the area. The chances for some light precipitation will be tied to a couple of short wave troughs moving through the flow.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies southward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Satellite imagery revealed only scattered cirrus with the associated positively tilted trough passing over Kansas. A few locations on the lowest elevations of the southeast zones may achieve 60, but continued to undercut guidance across/near Scott county with highs near 50.
This system will head north along the Carolina coasts as an upper level trough over the Central Plains makes its way east through the day today. Highs today will be in the low 50s for our AL and GA counties and approaching the low 60s for our SE Big Bend counties. Cluster analysis continues to favor broad upper level troughing over much of the eastern U.
Southern Indiana will reach the lower 40s, tapering to mid 30s across northern Indiana.
Valleys continue to fall off faster than originally expected while ridges are running a bit slower. At the upper levels, there is a positively tiled trough that stretches from the upper Great Lakes back through the middle of the country and into the SW US. Ahead of the trough, there is SW flow aloft locally. Cold front approaches the region from the NW tonight and overnight which will spill some SCT high clouds into the northern half of the area. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 20s. Some of the hi-res guidance tries to squeeze out some light flurries or patchy freezing drizzle early Tuesday morning, but for the moment kept Pops under 10 percent.
115 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Low pressure will develop along the coast tonight and move northeast through Tuesday. High pressure will then rebuild across the region and prevail through the end of the week. Near and north of the low, areas of showers continue to push northward though currently we are seeing a lull in activity across much of the forecast area. Monday: A mid-level trough positioned over the Midwest will result in southwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states. Showers, constant cloud cover, and northerly winds will cause high temperatures to top out in the low 50s.
Heading into Tue, sfc winds fm the S/SW wl return as a new mid lvl trof apchs fm the NW.
Extremely dry conditions will continue today into tonight as a northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while west-northwesterly downsloping only enhances a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels across the region. With the influence of westerly downsloping continuing through tonight, expect lows only down into the mid/upper 20s(F) to possibly the lower 30s(F). Look for highs well up into the 50s(F) Tuesday afternoon with the lower 60s(F) expected in south central Kansas.
1259 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 High pressure will build over the area through this evening before low pressure develops off the coast late tonight into Monday. High pressure builds back over the area from the west late Tuesday through late week. Do not anticipate p-type issues as near-surface layer should be sufficiently above freezing along with forecast soundings taking a while to saturate and by then, we'll be well above freezing into the mid/upper 40s later into Monday morning.
/issued 136 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022/ This morning's cold front has brought little in the way of cooler temperatures, being more of a wind shift with some gusty north winds behind it. Modest thicknesses increases Monday point to high temperatures a little warmer than those of this afternoon and in line with MOS numbers. Frontolysis is expected to be underway as it passes through the CWA after becoming displaced from the core of the mid/upper-level jet streaks rotate over the lower Mississippi River Valley, with northerly wind speeds generally less than 20 mph along with weak CAA.
Despite a very cold morning, highs Monday afternoon will trend much warmer compared to today. These winds will continue into Monday night which will lead to even warmer low temps over the plains.
Forecast Key Points: - Well above average temperatures this week - Dry conditions this week - Elevated fire danger this Week A weak cold front has pushed through the area. Temperatures cloud climb into the low 60s across portions of the area. An even warmer day is expected Tuesday as another cold front approaches the area, leading to compressional warming.
As of 230 AM Monday morning, a midlevel trough axis was translating through the region with a band of midlevel cloud cover accompanying its passage.
1046 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front passed through the area earlier today and winds have been gusty in the wake of the front. Winds decouple quickly this evening, and with the dry air and clear skies expect a cold night, especially in the lower spots like river valleys where teens are anticipated. Upper level ridging will persist along the West Coast through the coming week. Downstream of the ridging across our area expect persistent dry northwest flow aloft to continue.
242 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Clear skies will continue overnight and into tomorrow as high pressure remains stationed over New England. With the high pressure in place, the region has managed to stay relatively mild overnight compared to the last few nights. This trend is progged to continue into Monday as the region stays in the warmer air ahead of a mostly dry cold front. An upper-level low digging out of Canada, which will stay well north of the area , will drag a mostly dry cold front through the area later this afternoon and evening. Eastern Kentucky will be within the return flow side of the high, allowing for the advection of warm air into the area.
Otherwise, high pressure and northwesterly winds will keep the atmosphere dry and suppress afternoon Cu field development through the period.
Coastal low will continue to lift away from the area today as an upr trough digs south, drawing Gulf moisture north ahead of it. A brief reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air will impact mainly areas along and west/north of I-85 tonight with temps back down in the mid-upr 20s.
Updated the forecast to add in freezing fog and dense freezing fog. A freezing fog advisory has been issued for the Eastern Magic Valley, Lower Snake Plain and the Teton Valley.