Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge will build north today towards the southern Appalachians and over much of our forecast area (FA), and will act to keep diurnal convective coverage to a minimum. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Upper ridge will provide above normal max temps again today.
/Today through Wednesday Night/ ArkLaTex on the western periphery of a vertically stacked upper- ridge centered across the east coast.
The story for the rest of this week will be the heat as an upper level ridge takes over. BNA saw 95 for a high yesterday and we should see at least that, if not a degree or two warmer each afternoon for the next 4 days as summer keeps its hold on the south. With the strong dome of high pressure over the mid-south, this is stretch of days is likely to continue. Fortunately, guidance is also suggesting we lose the upper ridge before this moisture push, which means temperatures should fall back into the low 90s for the weekend. Will see little change in the overall weather pattern this TAF period as high pressure continues to dominate local weather.
Overall the best forcing with the western trough is still well to our northwest and is one of the main reasons that we will probably stay dry through tonight. It will be warmer than normal with a south southeast wind and highs in the mid 80s Nebraska to upper 80s over northern Kansas. Wednesday will be warm ahead of the cold front with highs once again well into the 80s across the region.
Visible imagery shows little more than fair weather cumulus over the Upper Keys and upwind off the Southeast Florida coast, while the Lower Keys have had thunderstorm-producing cumulonimbi this morning. Through Wednesday night, northeast to east winds will freshen as a high pressure center strengthens over the Southern Appalachians and a tropical wave moves from the eastern to the western Bahamas.
Despite the drier air over the peninsula, pockets of moisture in the low levels has aided the development of isolated showers this morning over the Atlantic waters. Slightly "cooler" temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior to upper 80s along the coast. (previous) Ridge axis north of the area will lead to a gradual strengthening onshore flow across the waters.
941 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Rap surface analysis shows high pressure from the Atlantic extending west-southwest across the northern Florida peninsula early this morning. This drier airmass will keep overall rain chances on the low side the remainder of today with only some isolated showers or storms expected during the afternoon. It will be another hot day even along the coast as the increased easterly flow should either negate or pin the west coast sea breeze very close to the coast which will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s inland. High pressure to the northeast of the area will support northeast to easterly winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
216 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Cooler than average weather is expected through Wednesday.
temperatures have already increased into the low 80s for much of the region the region and will continue to climb as the day progresses, topping out in the mid 90s.
Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough exits the Treasure State to the northeast, and weak ridging dominates briefly. 5 to 2 inches, with the highest precipitation totals expected in some areas of southwest and central Montana.
427 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A southeast CONUS ridge will remain centered just off to our east across northern Alabama/Georgia and into the western Carolinas with the ArkLaMiss region remaining beneath weak southeast flow around the periphery of the ridge. While 850mb temperatures will still be above average for early September (18-19 C), they are several degrees cooler compared to the last few days and will help keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90s as opposed to the pesky upper 90s to low 100s. /TW/ The heat will remain on through the week across the region as upper level ridging remains centered across the Southeastern United States. The upper ridge will break down toward the end of the week and into the weekend as a front approaches the area from the north.
433 AM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A rather slow moving trough centered over the Washington coast continues to bring moisture to the northern Rockies. Southwest flow associated with the upper level trough will favor central Idaho and southwest Montana today. A temporary drying trend begins Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis makes its way into central Montana.
649 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A warm front will cross east through the Great Lakes region, keeping a warm and humid airmass over the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week.
759 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure over New England will slide off the coast today and Wednesday, allowing a warm and increasingly humid southwesterly flow to develop.
Water vapor loop shows the upper-level trough overhead of the West Coast today and a couple of embedded disturbances are forecast to rotate through the area through tonight. Cooler temperatures aloft will allow elevated instability to increase slightly across the northern part of the forecast area today. The trough will exit the region late tonight, with ridging expected to spread across the West Coast in its wake. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show yet another trough moving toward the area late this weekend, likely bringing cooler interior temperatures back to the area.
757 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A weak cold front will linger in the region today with isolated afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN 940 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure continues to strengthen over the southeastern U. This will generate rather hot conditions across the area this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s. The strong subsidence associated with the ridge will inhibit diurnal convection though a few isolated showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled out. Will see little change in the overall weather pattern this TAF period as high pressure continues to dominate local weather.
353 AM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A rather slow moving trough centered over the Washington coast continues to bring moisture to the northern Rockies. Southwest flow associated with the upper level trough will favor central Idaho and southwest Montana today. A temporary drying trend begins Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis makes its way into central Montana.
/TW/ A southeast CONUS ridge will remain centered just off to our east across northern Alabama/Georgia and into the western Carolinas with the ArkLaMiss region remaining beneath weak southeast flow around the periphery of the ridge. While 850mb temperatures will still be above average for early September (18-19 C), they are several degrees cooler compared to the last few days and will help keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90s as opposed to the pesky upper 90s to low 100s. /TW/ The heat will remain on through the week across the region as upper level ridging remains centered across the Southeastern United States. The upper ridge will break down toward the end of the week and into the weekend as a front approaches the area from the north.
Forecast for the remainder of today generally looks reasonable, with the best chance for any convection over the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 71 96 71 / 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 70 93 69 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 70 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 64 91 64 / 10 10 10 10.
At KSOA, the low clouds appear fairly solid, so have gone with a prevailing MVFR CIG there through 16Z this morning. Broad troughing continues across the western states of the CONUS, with upper level ridging over the southeastern U. , and a weak upper low just south of our area. (Wednesday through Tuesday) A weaker ridge across the area will allow for an isolated thunderstorm to develop across the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s across most of the area through the end of the week.
Another wave of energy will rotate around the low pressure center over the Pacific Northwest. Mid week temperatures will start to trend warmer as the trough pushes off to the east, allowing high pressure to rebuild across California.
This low cloud should lift back northward through the day as the Pacific northwest low rotates toward the northern Rockies. Rain is expected to return tonight in the southerly flow ahead of the upper low.
This capping inversion has increased the convective temperature to 97F, and this will likely not be achieved at most locations today as temperatures should only peak out in the low to mid 90s based on the 925mb temperature. Given the cap, any cloud development and shower activity should be relegated to the lowest the 10K feet or so of the atmosphere today where lapse rates are more favorable for convective development.
1035 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Temps are running 3-6 degrees cooler than yesterday attm thanks to a mid cloud deck moving across the area. Expect increasing sunshine this afternoon with temps climbing into the lower to mid 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An East coast upper ridge will support an increase in temperatures throughout the majority of the week.
ow temperatures will once again cool into the lower /mid 70's inland and probably remain in the lower 80's closer to the coast due to a bit more cloud cover and onshore winds. 43 With the Texas area mid/upper level low remaining in place, still looking for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as elevated precipitable water values persist.
An area of mid to high level clouds over west Alabama is in response to an upper level ridge building southward along the Atlantic States and an upper level impulse moving northward along the Mississippi River. The cloud cover has resulted in cooler temperatures across west Alabama, where Tuscaloosa was at 84 degrees at 11 am and Birmingham was at 90. Satellite imagery also shows drier air aloft advecting into east Alabama in conjunction with upper ridge.
456 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure ridging and dry conditions continue to dominate the region today, with isolated showers and storms building in the forecast area, primarily occuring offshore, along the Altamaha River, and along the I-75 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and low 80s for coastal areas and beaches.
210 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Mid and upper ridge centered just west of the area will hold firm across the southeastern states through tonight. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s. The upper ridge will persist, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
Deep layered ridging will remain over the southeastern U.
Convection will persist across the north into Wednesday morning as the warm front remains in southern Minnesota. By late Wednesday night, stronger synoptic forcing will approach western Iowa ahead of an advancing cold front.
/issued 941 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ Rap surface analysis shows high pressure from the Atlantic extending west-southwest across the northern Florida peninsula early this morning. This drier airmass will keep overall rain chances on the low side the remainder of today with only some isolated showers or storms expected during the afternoon. It will be another hot day even along the coast as the increased easterly flow should either negate or pin the west coast sea breeze very close to the coast which will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s inland. High pressure to the northeast of the area will support northeast to easterly winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
Some question as to highs on Wednesday due to cooler temps aloft, but still some uncertainty on how this will affect high temps. With dewpts hovering in the low 70s, heat index values, especially in the St.
353 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows Bermuda high pressure continuing to ridge over the wrn Gulf Coast, maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the sern CONUS while a mid-level low is noted over Texas. Tomorrow looks like a bit of a repeat of today with diurnal convection developing primarily across the wrn 1/2 of the area as ridging aloft gradually builds wwd from the sern CONUS. POPs diminish significantly for late in the week thanks to the building ridge aloft suppressing convection.
148 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Mid and upper ridge centered just west of the area will hold firm across the southeastern states through tonight. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Skies have cleared out across North Mississippi and temps have climbed into the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Clouds will clear out of the Memphis metro soon and temps will quickly climb into the lower 90s before sunset. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s.
251 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 (Tonight and Wednesday) The combination of weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft and the proximity of a weak upper low over the Texas Hill Country, will result in showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through Wednesday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Southerly winds increase by mid morning and continue through the afternoon for a majority of the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
This is in association with a slow-moving and deep cut-off low moving east within a broader deep upper level trough through this time period. Weak ridging slowly builds into the area from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night, resulting in gradual clearing.
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Arkansas continues to be under the western edge of a large area of high pressure. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s across the higher elevations to the mid 90s elsewhere.
We could see unorganized isolated storms again tomorrow as the upper low over the Pacific Northwest pushes eastward.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the southeast. At the surface, high pressure is over the southeast.
254 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Upper trough axis has entered the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, with broad southwesterly flow persisting from the Desert Southwest through the Midwest regions. With no additional focus for lift this evening in our area as the upper trough lifts across the Dakotas, have kept pops low through Wednesday afternoon. Broken high clouds linger through the evening hours, inhibiting overnight lows to the low and middle 70s.
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A warm front will cross east through the Great Lakes region, keeping a warm and humid airmass over the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week.
The combination of a weakening upper trough/low and copious moisture will contribute to additional scattered convection this evening/early tonight, and isolated/scattered activity overnight.
Temperatures are trending 2 to 5 degrees cooler than 24hrs prior with also slightly drier trends noted across western AR.
A large scale upper level trough of low pressure is over the western U. There are several small disturbances rotating through and around the low center which will cause showers throughout the day and into the evening and could even produce a few thunderstorms but nothing strong or severe. Winds will be light but temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal today and overnight.
Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions will continue through Wednesday.
Low and mid level moisture has rapidly returned, and significantly less mixing is fcst for this aftn; thus, the cooler temps.
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure across the southeast United States will continue the warming trend throughout the region through mid week.
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A deep upper level longwave trough currently sits west of the Rockies and is forecast to slowly migrate eastward through the short term period. A 700 mb wave ejecting from the trough into the Northern Plains will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area late this afternoon through tonight. Western North Dakota is more likely to see persistent shower activity through the day as it lies in closer proximity to the approaching upper low.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening, more numerous over the higher terrain.
346 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure will remain in control through late week.
The main trough will dig into the Great Basin tonight and push across the northern Rockies and northern CO late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The surface cold front should move through the forecast area during the day Wednesday.
/issued 1035 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ Temps are running 3-6 degrees cooler than yesterday attm thanks to a mid cloud deck moving across the area. Expect increasing sunshine this afternoon with temps climbing into the lower to mid 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Low to mid level moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico will remain high tonight into Wednesday as a weak 500mb low develops across the western Gulf Wednesday and a shear axis lingers between the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southeast United States and a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico.
225 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Upper-level analysis shows low pressure over the Pacific Northwest, a trough over the western CONUS, and southwest flow over the northern plains. Surface map depicts high pressure over ND and northeastern SD, and a warm/stationary front draped over NE. Wednesday afternoon and evening, stronger upper-level energy will push into the region with the upper trough, bringing more showers and isolated thunderstorms to the CWA. However, severe weather may be limited if low clouds persist or if the low tracks a little farther east. A closed low will develop Wednesday night over eastern MT.
A warm front is draped across the Sandhills from west to east which will become the focus for most of the thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms once again as an upper level TROF moves across the area Wednesday afternoon.
1124 AM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Southwesterly flow will increase today as an upper level low drops southward into the western CONUS. Surface dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid-60s to the south of the front with southeasterly winds pushing the dewpoints north of the front into the 50s. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening with a chance for tornadoes in the area of enhanced shear near the warm front.
A few more elevated showers will occur north of this complex moving northeast in the mid level moisture flow around the 500 mb trough over the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday night will see moisture increase across the area as an 500 mb short wave moves northeast out of the main trough.
High pressure continues to strengthen over the southeastern U. This will generate rather hot conditions across the area this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s. The strong subsidence associated with the ridge will inhibit diurnal convection though a few isolated showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled out.
At the same time, mid-level heights will rise as a broad upper-level trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. At that time, afternoon temps will rise into the upper 80s with mostly clear skies, while heat indices peak in the lower to mid 90s.
1000 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Cooler than average weather is expected through Wednesday.
210 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Wrap around the high southerlies was fetching a tongue of a little better moisture into the southwest ptns of the FA, but at the same time, mid clouds were muting the peaking air temperatures, somewhat offsetting pcpn chances as they remain below the level of free convection. Afterward, we see the dome of high pressure aloft really strengthen over the Tennessee river valley.
A surface trof was situated across ern NM this afternoon and is a low level focusing feature for storm development in that part of the state.
However, it still looks very humid with afternoon dewpoints values remaining in the lower 70s primarily.
759 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Dry conditions are expected tonight as a mid level ridge remains in place across the region.
The 500 mb trough centered over central and southern TX will continue drifting northwards on the west side of the ridge axis centered over the southeastern U. /issued 317 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Low to mid level moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico will remain high tonight into Wednesday as a weak 500mb low develops across the western Gulf Wednesday and a shear axis lingers between the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southeast United States and a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico.
A deep upper level longwave trough currently sits west of the Rockies and is forecast to slowly migrate eastward through the short term period. A 700 mb wave ejecting from the trough into the Northern Plains will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area late this afternoon through tonight. Western North Dakota is more likely to see persistent shower activity through the day as it lies in closer proximity to the approaching upper low.
The precip will become more widespread overnight as the trough moves up into Montana.
Drier and warmer conditions will return Wednesday through the weekend.
656 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An East coast upper ridge will support an increase in temperatures throughout the majority of the week.
628 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure will remain in control through late week.
That what happens when you tie both the record high temp for Nashville and Crossville for today, September 10th, and reach the highest temp recorded for the year so far, today, September 10th, in Nashville of 99 degrees. Last time Nashville reached 99 degrees was July 4th, 2018! All the above the result of broad moisture rich sly sfc flow and broad/but not too strong, upper level ridging aloft, which evolved into a dirty upper level ridging pattern as the day progressed. While an upper high remains centered over the mid state, the record heat today has been enough to trigger scattered convection late this afternoon and evening along a theta-e axis, and this convection will last into the early evening, although there is only a small chance that any of our terminals will be affected.
618 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure across the southeast United States will continue the warming trend throughout the region through mid week.
1052 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Dry conditions are expected tonight as a mid level ridge remains in place across the region.