Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
152 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CLOUD FIELD. /ISSUED 951 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO HOLD ON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL EDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
NO PRECIP REPORTED AS OF YET AND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN RATHER PATCHY.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS THE CULPRIT FOR LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE COOLER AIR OVER THE WATER REPLACING THE RISING AIR OVER THE MAINLAND.
A cold front currently in northwestern Kansas will rapidly drop south tonight bringing gusty north winds immediately behind the front, and quickly diminishing within 2 to 3 hours after frontal passage.
627 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND YIELDING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. STRONG RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
339 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW WILL MORPH INTO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SE FLOW THIS AFTN MAINLY FOR CRP-ALI- VCT.
332 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF WHAT WAS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE FRONT HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACH THE AREA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA DRY ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA. WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
257 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 High pressure will move away tonight, with easterly winds becoming southerly and gradually increasing. This band will progress west to east through the afternoon with the front, enhanced by forcing from the upper trof that will extend from the Great Lakes south across the Mississippi Valley by 21z Wed.
OFF TO THE WEST, SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THIS WILL PLAY THE LARGEST ROLE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE ARK-LA-MISS. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE. A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TOMORROW WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS AS COOLING TENDS TO OVERACHIEVE THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. BUT STALLS IT NEAR THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AL/FL.
315 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
357 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT.
401 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
150 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH WARMER AIR AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM MOVING IN AM HESITANT TO DROP MAXIMUM VALUES TOO FAR AS WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SOLAR TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FA IN THE LOW- MID 30S SO P-TYPE MAINLY LIQUID. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MT. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP WAS UNDER THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED LATER TUE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR A BRIEF TIME THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST AS A STORM WRAPS UP INTO EASTERN CANADA.
235 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 WARMER/WINDY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. THOUGH WARMER THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. HIGHS WED WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS OF 18Z, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
1106 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016 CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW CYCLES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN ID. THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
STRONG UPPER LOW NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO WRAP PLENTY OF CLOUDS SOUTHWARD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS BUT SOME OF THESE.
IS A CLASSIC SPRING SETUP FOR WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED MAXES. -HOWERTON SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. BUT SFC MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT EARLY AFTERNOON FROM A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WITH THE FRONT ITSELF MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE THETA-E RIDGE FIELD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR VS DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE LAST NIGHT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BEING SEEN AROUND THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND BRING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
BEFORE WINDS PICKUP AFTER 06/12Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING, DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME WIND GUSTS ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR MAY REACH 15-20MPH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
315 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 19z/2pm surface map shows ridge axis extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the western Gulf of Mexico, while a cold front pushes across the Northern Plains. As the high continues to shift eastward away from the region, the pressure gradient between the departing high and the approaching front will tighten this evening. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and increasing cloud cover, low temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler than high temps this afternoon. mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Low pressure will pass across northern IL mid-day to early afternoon, dragging a cold front across our counties Wed afternoon.
The cold front that is currently entering northwestern KS will move into northeast OK late tonight and clear the area tomorrow morning. with a couple of weak cold front dipping into the area.
226 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST AND DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
401 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
432 PM MDT TUE APR 5 2016 COLD FRONT HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY SE ACROSS OUR CWA AND AT 21Z WAS WELL SOUTH OF I-70. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
253 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GATHERING STRENGTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN ELEVATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SOME -FZRA DUE TO LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLIER TODAY. SFC MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETURN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUS FAR WITH SFC DEW POINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM KS SOUTH TO OK THIS AFTERNOON. BY MIDNIGHT THE LOW WILL BE NEARING KDSM WITH SHIELD OF RAIN/SCT THUNDER EXTENDING ENE. TOWARD 12Z A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. AND NEAR 10 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BRIDGE. AN AREA OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
228 PM PDT TUE APR 5 2016 High pressure will bring a rapid warming trend to the Inland Northwest.
Gusty south to southeast winds this afternoon should continue into the overnight hours ahead of a weak cold front approaching Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. and a cold front associated with the upper wave was drifting southeast with the wave. critical dangers with potential red flag conditions are forecast as the lower relative humidities and strongest winds should be co-located.
THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS A PRETTY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON WED. AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS EAST IT WILL PULL A WEAK AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS PRETTY LIMITED AND IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMS. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE WARMER SHORT TERM MODEL SETS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BLEND WILL FAVOR THE WARMER MET AND ECMWF NUMBERS.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING BRIEFLY WARMER WEATHER AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALTHOUGH STG MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MOST AREAS WET/SHOWERY INTO WED EVENING AND HAVE SIDED W/COOLER BLENDED TEMPS SANS SE CORNER. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THE LARGE SCALE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXING DOWN AND BEING FORCED DOWN TODAY AS OUR TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. A DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST ON SAT WILL BEING PUSHING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO SW WY.
237 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MILD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PART OF A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WIND FIELD ALONG THE EAST COAST BACKING TO N/NNE WITH ENE/E WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING (E-W ORIENTED) EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH N/NNE WINDS HERE AND ENE WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE/OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS.
1009 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SW flow aloft today will strengthen Sat with a 140kt 3h jet moving across the area in advance of an upper low. 7h-5h LR's are marginal for thunder and the high based nature of cloud bases may contribute to gusty winds. A high wind watch is already in effect Winds in the higher elevations may begin earlier than 17Z and we will move the watch up to 15Z.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT OFFER MUCH HOPE WITH AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS UTAH OVERNIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE TO THE NORTH.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a moisture surges north into the area in advance of a cold front that will push into the region Saturday night.
High pressure to the northeast of the forecast area is allowing for light southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and this has continued to allow for gradually increasing low level moisture across the region for the last 24 hours. Surface dewpoints are now in the lower 60s across the Florida Panhandle with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. The high cloudiness streaming overhead is relatively thin and should have little if any impact on the overnight temperature forecast. Lows should be in the low to mid 50s.
Low temperatures will be quite warm, in fact warmer than typical highs for December.
800 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
649 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
659 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING FOG/DENSE AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UP AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS. AREAS ALONG I-29 INCLUDING WATERTOWN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR LONGER AND MAY NOT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE SAT EVENING.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DEEPER INTO THE ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS EAST TX AND LA FROM THE GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN. THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIP EAST AS WELL ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO ST LOUIS MO AND LOUISVILLE KY.
714 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO TOOLE/LIBERTY/HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.
/ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS THICK TODAY. THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THESE STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL SPREAD ITS IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A MARKED INCREASE IN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A 160KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY SUFFER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER CAPPING.
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH CIGS AND VSBYS.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL LIFT A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RIDGES AND BLUFF TOPS. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TONIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HRRR has the low clouds continuing to push northeast this evening, but high clouds will likely persist over the area. The net effect for the public forecast will still be a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky regardless of what the low clouds ultimately decide to do. However, it's more likely that low visibility will be caused by low clouds which are forecast to redevelop over the higher terrain. MOS guidance in the low to mid 50s looks very reasonable.
857 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO HELP KEEP THINGS WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND WE MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR HSV. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD BASES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA.
801 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA.
HIGH TEMPS OVER THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN RECORD VALUES AT LEAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS ON TUE AS QUASI HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER VALUES THAN SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMP VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH CIGS AND VSBYS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS GOOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT NWS BISMARCK. HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA.
646 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Low pressure was over the central Plains with a warm front extending east into central MO, southern IL, just north of our CWFA.
647 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AND THE MAIN IMPACTS BECOME SNOW-RELATED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED TOTALS COVERED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM. ANTICIPATE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FOR THE MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
927 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.