Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough was located across eastern NE with an upper trough axis extending south-southwest across east central KS. Once the upper trough axis shifts east of the CWA and a weak front moves through, the line of storms should move southeast of the CWA by around 10 AM. A drier and slightly cooler airmass will move southeast across eastern KS behind the surface front. Highs will Today will reach the lower to mid 70s.
At the surface, the accompanying cold front has moved through all but the eastern fringe of the CWA, with west-northwest winds building in behind. Through the short term, dry conditions are forecast, with models in good agreement showing that as this upper level system continues moving east, northwesterly flow builds in, thanks to ridging amplifying over the Rockies. This evening/tonight, winds remain light but will turn more southerly as that ridge axis moves east of the area. While plenty of sun is expected today, will have to keep an eye on the low level stratus off to the northeast of the CWA, as satellite imagery shows it sinking south. As far as temperatures go, all but far western portions of our NE counties is expected to be cooler than yesterday. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the lower/mid 40s.
658 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016 An area of low pressure, currently over western Iowa, will track eastward to northern Indiana by midnight tonight. The trailing cold front is expected enter the by this afternoon, and exit the forecast area to the east by shortly after midnight. 1011 mb low pressure over western IA will track eastward to western Lake Erie by 12Z/Thu and over Lake Ontario by sunset Thu. Showers will already be east of IL by sunrise Thu with clouds decrease from the west during the day as 1024 mb high pressure moves into IL/IN with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny Thu afternoon. Cooler highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s with mildest reading sw CWA. Lows Thu night in the low to mid 40s, coolest over east central IL.
A weak cold front is working thru the area, but winds will remain light. /issued 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/ Upper pattern dominated by high pressure ridge centered over Mexico and extending up over the 4 Corners region to MT.
Current forecast is for highs in the low/mid 80s, while records are in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
A warm front is lifting north out of Oregon and over Washington this morning. However, the western portion will be impacted by the slow moving cool front coming in behind the departing warm front.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday given less afternoon cloud cover and drier air aloft, with most locations in the mid 80s. Low stratus tomorrow evening should keep lows similar to this morning's in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be about a degree warmer than today as high pressure continues to build in from the west to further suppress any shower activity or cloud development.
As for temps, trended twd the warmer guidance today. Trended twd the warmer guidance tonight across about the srn half of the CWA, while trending cooler across the north. Surface ridging doesn't last long though and begins to shift to the southeast Thursday night.
Low pressure centered over Western Iowa will track to northern Illinois by this evening. Weak high pressure will build our way Thursday night.
1011 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Another quiet weather day across the region with high pressure still in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 76 55 / 0 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 56 74 52 / 0 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 56 74 52 / 0 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 47 70 48 / 0 10 40 20.
Mostly over AR trends have the convection gradually weakening as the upper support shears to the northeast with the upper low pressure and dynamics remain weak. Clouds will increase over the state with the convection, while highs today will reach the 70s in most locals, while some around 80 to the lower 80s in parts of central to the south. assocd with an upr trof tracking EWD. The aforementioned upr trof wl cont to slide EWD today. high pressure aloft wl begin to bld back EWD into the Srn Plains and Mid-South.
HRRR runs show warm front band of showers moving into northern half of area close to sunset. Marginal low level temperatures near freezing and relatively warm surfaces given time of year/first snow make for a difficult winter wx fcst with snowfall somewhat dependent on elevation, rate and type of surface (grass vs. Secondary roads over the highest terrain could be slushy for a time with some slick spots. Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the Northeast U.
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the Piedmont, providing E-NE winds across our region. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave ridge over the central CONUS, though a short wave trough was translating eastward through this ridge and will approach our forecast area later today.
1254 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Hydro It will be cold and wet today and tonight as low pressure tracks just south of Lower Michigan.
but weak ridging/drier air aloft should limit any potential weather impacts. Considerable cirrus noted over the forecast area this morning ahead of east Texas upper trof. This associated with a weak surface trof skirting west across the northwest gulf, and the approach and passage of an eastward tracking interior conus mid/upper trof.
1010 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 928 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 A trough of low pressure will linger over the area today. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and will slide off to the east on Thursday.
1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Southwestern-based upper ridging will continue its eastward expansion over the state. This will be the main reason for these mainly clear and subsequently warmer week days. Nil rain chances and slightly warmer today with middle 80 maximum temperatures. A generally persistent (mostly) easterly low-level flow combined with the building upper ridge off to the west are continuing to be the main players with our current weather pattern. Temperatures should remain fairly persistent with numbers keeping on the slightly warmer side of normal.
920 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Fair and warmer weather is expected today with higher pressure aloft and scattered high clouds.
Upper level ridging will build into the region later tonight through Thursday. This ridge will bring dry conditions to the region.
Conditions are warming nicely across the Lower MS Valley this late Wed morning, as temp trends climb into the mid 60s/lower 70s for most locations. The light return flow pattern coupled with weak upper ridging over the cntrl/ern Gulf region is certainly helping with the unseasonably warm air mass in place. Cloud cover though will be moving back into the area from the s/w later today, in advance of an upper trough moving ewd out of the cntrl/srn Plains states. Otherwise, another quiet and warm day is xpcted across the Lower MS Valley, as afternoon highs again climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s range.
and Thursday A swath of rain continues to advect in from the southwest early this morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system currently located near Omaha. This low will track through northern Illinois later this afternoon and this evening. High pressure and drier air advecting in from the west will bring dry conditions back to the are by Thursday afternoon.
The main 500 mb short wave trough is moving into southwestern MN and far northwestern Iowa and the 850 mb frontogenesis has shifted to far SE MN into southern Wisconsin. But broad upper level trough does extend northwest to connect with the northern stream 500 mb short wave over central Saskatchewan.
Expect highs this aftn generally in the low/mid 60s. and overnight lows in the low 40s. allowing highs to peak in the low/mid 70s per both MET/MAV guidance.
However the associated wave will be lifting away from the region and many times the higher resolution models struggle with cold pool aggression.
Canadian high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes, with a ridge axis extending SE to the mid atlc coast, will build south over Florida. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s. East winds will persist with breezy conditions near the coast and mild temperatures holding in the low to mid 70s along the coast, mid 60s far interior.
Strong high pressure will result in dry and warm conditions the remainder of the week, with well above normal daytime temperatures for late October. An anomalously strong ridge for late October continues to dominate our weather pattern. The ridge is currently centered to our south across Sonora with the ridge axis extending northward into Arizona. The warmest temperatures are expected on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts just east of the region resulting in a bit more southerly flow. High pressure will bring a drying trend and above normal daytime highs through the coming weekend.
952 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure holds through today.
Otherwise there is an upper ridge now across the TN valley while an upper trof/cdfnt extended over the plains states. This means another warm/dry day with temps topping out in the low 80s which is arnd 10 degrees above normal. For tonight the above mentioned upper trof/cdfnt will begin to approach the TN valley.
As return moisture remains limited, the highest PoPs (40+%) for showers will continue to be over southern IL and most of southeastern MO, near the better energy aloft. Parts of western KY may not receive any rainfall at all, despite a surface cold front moving through the region late tonight/early Thursday morning. The four state region will be on the northern fringe of high pressure aloft throughout the period. At the surface, the cold front will remain north of the region, resulting in dry and warm conditions through the period.
Dry and warm conditions under high pressure are expected through at least Thursday.
/issued 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/ At 3AM, Temperatures are rather mild across the Mid-South, ranging from the lower 50s to near 60 degrees. A couple of mesoconvective systems are ongoing downstream of the main trough axis, with cirrus clouds beginning to overspread the Mid-South. The main storm track will remain removed well to our north over the next seven days, as a large ridge of high pressure builds over the southern U. 12z TAF VFR cigs and vsbys will prevail through the period as the low level airmass remains dry.
Isolated showers now over the Atlantic waters near inverted trough may reach ne Fl coastal counties today(mainly Duval/St. Weak inverted trough over the waters will result in increasing east to ne winds today.
545 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE Aside from some very localized pockets of patchy fog in the region of GUP and AXX early this morning, VFR conditions are expected today as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. A shallow back door cold front on the east central and southeast plains may produce a gusty wind shift around mid day. A strong dome of high pressure building over New Mexico will provide well above normal temperatures through the remainder of this week. Breezes will pick up this weekend as the high moves east and southwest flow increases over the southwest U. The latest water vapor loop shows an upper high developing over northwest Mexico. The 00Z GFS/EC show the high strengthening to ~590dm along the U.
Surface wise, a massive high pressure system covering the entire eastern United States and the Florida peninsula. Despite considerable, but translucent high cloudiness, partly cloudy skies with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s can be expected for the Florida Keys.
Temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 80s. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday given less afternoon cloud cover and drier air aloft, with most locations in the mid 80s. Low stratus tomorrow evening should keep lows similar to this morning's in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be about a degree warmer than today as high pressure continues to build in from the west to further suppress any shower activity or cloud development.
assocd with an upr trof tracking EWD. The aforementioned upr trof wl cont to slide EWD today. high pressure aloft wl begin to bld back EWD into the Srn Plains and Mid-South.
714 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 A trough of low pressure will linger over the area today. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and will slide off to the east on Thursday.
Near term high res models tend to somewhat weaken the precip as it moves into the western cwfa later this morning with a weakening and veering of the low level jet. Weak high pressure will move in for Thu, then look for the warm weather to continue Fri/Sat as s-ssw sfc winds become well established along with a broad upper level ridge.
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Showers/thunderstorms southeast Kansas this morning, warmer than normal temperatures through much of the period, with minimal precipitation chances.
Potential for VLIFR cigs and vsbys in dense fog that develops behind a cold front.
1053 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon and crosses the area during the evening.
High pressure aloft will bring dry and warm conditions to Utah through Thursday.
Last night, storms developed out ahead of a cold front across southeastern Nebraska into central Kansas as a LLJ strengthened. Thursday, high pressure will remain in control until later in the day when WAA will get underway.
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Dry conditions will persist until low pressure brings rain to the region tonight and Thursday. Still expect most of the region to remain rain-free thanks to dry low levels, although some light rain may occur north of Pittsburgh by 00Z ahead of an advancing warm front. Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to Lake Ontario tonight and Thursday, and will swing a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon. Previous PoP forecast looks on track, with the higher probabilities and qpf generally over the northern half of the area.
The tail end of an upper level long wave trough is progged to swing east across the region today. An upper level high centered over N Mexico/SW U. will shift east as the trough exits the area through Thursday. At the lower levels and surface, low level moisture convergence will continue to bring a few very weak showers across the waters and toward the coast today then shifting inland along the sea breeze this afternoon. Models bring drier mid/upper levels across S TX tonight as the upper level high builds east across the area. Also a tad cooler min temps. Inspite of the high building across the area in the upper levels, moisture in the low levels is expected to increase as a sfc wave over the gulf moves west toward the coast through the day Thu.
946 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Seasonal and dry high pressure will remain over the region today. before a weak and mostly dry cold front crosses the area Thursday.
735 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Aviation It will be cold and wet today and tonight as low pressure tracks just south of Lower Michigan.
The primary impetus will be residual outflow boundaries and weak cold front that will progress southeast to near I-44 by peak heating. For the next couple of hours, some fog will be possible near the cold front over northwest Oklahoma. A cold front will move across part of Oklahoma today before stalling along or near Interstate 44.
1102 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 A trough of low pressure will linger over the area today. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and will slide off to the east on Thursday.
1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Dry conditions will persist until low pressure brings rain to the region tonight and Thursday. Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to Lake Ontario tonight and Thursday, and will swing a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon. Previous PoP forecast looks on track, with the higher probabilities and qpf generally over the northern half of the area.
The main upper level ridge axis has shifted south and currently extends west to east across the northern portion of the Gulf. high pressure building into the southeastern states will create a southeasterly surface wind flow today. High temperatures today are expected to climb into the low 80s near the coast and low to mid 80s inland.
A cold front will move across part of Oklahoma today before stalling along or near Interstate 44.
A cold front is currently bringing rain to Del Norte county and a few light showers elsewhere. The water vapor continues to show the upper level trough off the west coast and multiple vort maxes moving around it. The main feature is interest this morning the cold front just off the coast. The low associated with this cold front has moved north of the area off the coast.
Dry stable conditions under the high will support a very pleasant dry day across the forecast area with just some intervals of cu/strato-cu clouds expected during the afternoon as shallow Atlantic moisture advects into the region on the northeast to easterly wind flow with temperature climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
North winds will be modestly gusty for a few hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a stellar autumn afternoon. High pressure ridge axis rebuilds strongly onto the plains Thursday.
621 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016 Surface cold front is poised to the NW of KPVW about 60NM. Surface cold front should make it to our NW corner by about 12Z with initial southerly push across the west. Insofar as temps go, not a whole lot of difference is expected in the highs though lows may range from 45 in the NW to 60 SE.
An area of low pressure, currently over western Iowa, will track eastward to northern Indiana by midnight tonight. The trailing cold front is expected enter the by this afternoon, and exit the forecast area to the east by shortly after midnight. 1011 mb low pressure over western IA will track eastward to western Lake Erie by 12Z/Thu and over Lake Ontario by sunset Thu. Showers will already be east of IL by sunrise Thu with clouds decrease from the west during the day as 1024 mb high pressure moves into IL/IN with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny Thu afternoon. Cooler highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s with mildest reading sw CWA. Lows Thu night in the low to mid 40s, coolest over east central IL.
High pressure will ridge across the area from the N/NE at the surface through the period with an upper trough in place to the west of the state over the central Gulf.
Another weak weather disturbance this morning is moving up and over the large scale upper level high pressure ridge. An upper ridge will be over Montana today and Thursday with temperatures warmer than normal. A weak upper level disturbance will move over the top of the ridge today and bring mid and high level clouds to the forecast area. Mid and upper level moisture moving across the top of the ridge will continue to keep skies mostly cloudy tonight. With the thermal ridge and upper ridge axis over Eastern Montana, temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Upper ridge moves to the east Thursday Night and flow aloft turns to the southwest.
Several spots have already fallen into the upper 40s, but I don't expect much cooler temperatures than that with the high clouds and dew points in the mid-40s.
721 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Light rain/drizzle today as two areas of low pressure impact parts of the Northland. Becoming warmer Thursday as warmer southerly flow results in some slightly warmer air being brought into the region. Today light stratiform rain will gradually spread across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as an elevated warm front begins to weaken as it lifts into the Northland. Warmer air finally moves in Thursday as a longwave ridge over the Rockies builds eastward towards the Great Plains. Flow turns out of the south Thursday night as an area of low pressure, associated with a 850hPa trough, translates east across the Dakotas. An increasing southwesterly low level jet will allow mid level temperatures to rapidly rise into the teens Celsius in the warm sector ahead of the low.
706 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure will remain overhead today, resulting in another day of VFR flying conditions. Ceilings will fill and lower tonight into early Thursday ahead of a cold front, but rain should not develop at any TAF sites until after 12Z.
A weak cold front extended from near Omaha Nebraska through Great Bend and Liberal Kansas. A upper ridge axis will extend from the Four Corner region northward across the Central and Northern Rockies. this upper ridge is anomalously strong with 500mb height near 14 decameters above normal in eastern Wyoming. Lows tonight mainly in the low 40s, except near 45 parts of the northeast, and mid to upper 30s parts of the eastern panhandle and Platte River valley.
1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
The trough over the upper Midwest slowly shifts southeast through the day today, allowing ridging to build across the high Plains. Hi-res models suggest that patchy drizzle will remain possible mainly across east central SD into southwest MN in the low stratus deck through around 9 am.
607 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY.
TODAY WILL BE RAIN FREE AND ON THE WARM SIDE AS RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BE IN CONTROL. THE BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. TAKING THE UPPER SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THEN UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS SLOW-DOWN IS TYPICAL WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS.
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW CENTER IN COLORADO LATER TODAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET.
558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FORMING A REX BLOCK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S.
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U. AND PUSH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MORE FULLY RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. WIND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISH BY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE ECFL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND.