Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST.
CLOUD COVER IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS A DEG OR SO COOLER IN SOME AREAS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND WAS EAST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. AND SOME 50S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND LESS WINDY TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT.
421 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. COOLER RELIEF YESTERDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH OF MAINLAND FLORIDA AS THE WEEKS PROGRESSES. WHILE DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH THE EXPANSE OF THE FEATURE HAS BROADENED SOMEWHAT. A TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS THATNKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST NOTABLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DOES NOT SHIFT AS FAR TO THE EAST AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE RIDGE DOES NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH EITHER. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE CHALLENGE AS IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT. THE LACK OF BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS.
838 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 3-9 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TODAY BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IN SOME LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROF MOVG W AROUND THE BASE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CTRD ACROSS THE TX PAN HANDLE. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY. IF MX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BOTH HAPPEN TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS IS DUE TO THE INVERTED TROF.
739 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP AND ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
951 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ENDING OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
942 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
Water Vapor imagery is indc a weak wave moving WNW towards the CWA along with a mid level thetae ridge.
MANY OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION POPPING UP. /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND ATOKA WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
606 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
615 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 555 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG 500-MB ANTICYCLONE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD REGIONS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXIST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH -- AND POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE TO REFLECT THIS.
1244 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE GENERAL LACK OF A TRIGGER IS KEEPING THE POPS LOW OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING EVEN WITH GENERAL INSTABILITY IN THE HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, MOSTLY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AN ASSOCIATED REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PLANNED. 1) 500MB HEIGHTS ARE GAINING 40M TODAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME CAPPING. HIGH PRESSURE. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF M-32 WITH EVEN E UPPER GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO THE RH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30% RANGE.
LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL PUSH BROUGHT IN A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AND THIS HELPED MIX AND SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION EXPERIMENTAL MODEL RUNS ON THE LOWELL AND WILLOW WILDFIRES INDICATE THAT THE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE IN BRINGING SMOKE MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE CREST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
The latest hi-res guidance suggests upper ridging will take a little longer to work into the region today giving more opportunity for showers/storms. A strong upper ridge currently centered over the southern Plains will gradually shift eastward through the short term, becoming more established over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. However, given the warmer H7 temps from mid level subsidence and overall weak mid level lapse rates not expecting coverage to exceed 20-30% (that may be generous). Left a 20% pop in for Tuesday, but think the main story will be the warmer and muggy conditions. Looking for highs mostly in the upper 80s NE to low 90s SW combined with dew points in the low and mid 70s.
926 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015 SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON.
955 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015 LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS TO NORTHEAST NEVADA. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW WITH A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
MAIN COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO IOWA. WITH THE HIGHEST 30 POP OVER EXTREME NE AL AND FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF I-65.
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
716 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
IN SPITE OF THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
This low was centered along a gradient in low-mid level moisture with drier air and N/NE flow situated across most of our area. That should also yield warmer temperatures with highs in the mid-upper 90s, but dewpoints are also expected to mix down into the mid-upper 60s at times this afternoon, which should prevent heat indices from reaching too far above 100 degrees.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.
745 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER UPSTREAM OF THE FRONT RANGE OR AT LEAST OVER THE RIDGES MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE LOWER PLAINS AREAS AND MIDDLE PARK WHICH WILL HAVE THE COMBO OF COLDER TEMPS AND MOISTURE THAT HAS NOT MIXED OUT YET. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH SHORT AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS TODAY WHICH SHOWED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES BEFORE DWINDLING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
644 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
The only limiting factor for cold temperatures will be the mid-high level cloudiness advecting southeastward into our area ahead of the slow moving positively tilted upper level trough approaching MO.
LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS AND ADJACENT EAST COAST WHERE A FEW MAY MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.
An upper level trough is currently spreading southeast across the plains this afternoon. The trough will continue to spread southeast across the region early Saturday.
701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY! A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
601 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A weak front will bridge down into the area overnight with the wind becoming NE behind it. Said lift is occurring in advance of a cold front which will gradually turn the SE winds to E-NE (in a counter clockwise fashion) between 06Z-12Z. Noticeably cooler high temps (below normal) are expected Sat area-wide. More warming Tue with better lee trof and thermal ridging underneath strengthening SW flow aloft. An upper low is expected to pass to the n of CWFA on Wed and will push a Pacific front across the area. This will favor cooler temps and dry windy conditions (similar to yesterday). This will result in a cool morning Thur with some of the PB near freezing with only slightly warmer temps by Fri.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AND WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION LIKELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE 2/3RD OF THE AREA. A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND GALVESTON BAY AND THE EASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS AS EXTREMELY MOIST AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /DEW POINTS 75 DEGREES OR GREATER/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOMEWHAT COOLER COASTAL WATERS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB TROUGH WILL BE WEAK. MUCH COOLER/MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE SKY CLEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
802 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT MAKING IT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER UPSTREAM OF THE FRONT RANGE OR AT LEAST OVER THE RIDGES MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE LOWER PLAINS AREAS AND MIDDLE PARK WHICH WILL HAVE THE COMBO OF COLDER TEMPS AND MOISTURE THAT HAS NOT MIXED OUT YET. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.
607 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 254 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR NASHVILLE. TEMPS TODAY WERE AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
638 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. A LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE NAM AND GFS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SO WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN A TAD.
WE ARE STILL WELL WITHIN THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC OF THE LOW HOWEVER. THIS IS COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL THERMAL COLD TROUGH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY WITH THE COOL CLOUD TOPS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER DOWN THROUGH NW MN. WITHIN THIS COLD TROUGH. AND MUCH OF THE CAM AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH. THOUGH DID LINGER THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST UNTIL THE 925/850 RIDGE PUSHES EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS RETURN FLOW AND WAA REALLY DO NOT START KICKING IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE COOLER WAS LAGGING A LITTLE. BUT WITH COOLER AIR SO CLOSE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A CBM-JAN-ESF LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
742 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DOMINATED BY A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE EAST COAST IS NOW BEING DE-AMPLIFIED BY THIS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT WE REMAIN UNDER THIS RIDGE. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC IN NATURE WITH A WEAK AREA OF GULF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
Rain is expected to end from north to south by midday Saturday as a cold front brings drier air into the region. Light northeast flow behind a cold front combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring moisture up and over the cold front. Thus, will place the higher PoPs across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well. A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves through. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
At the surface, Pacific high pressure continued to spread eastward from the west into the Central Plains. The other focus tonight will revolve around how cold temperatures fall and the additional possibility of fog or freezing fog. Overnight lows will be a challenge as high pressure overspreads the areas sending winds calm across much of the region after about 9 UTC. A broad ridge will begin to build into the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. Temperatures will be just around freezing early in the mornings, with highs in the 50s common through the weekend.
WHERE SFC EASTERLIES HAVE KEPT DPTS IN THE LOW 30S THIS AFTN.
BUT WITH DESPITE BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES TRYING TO POTENTIALLY MODIFY THE MID STATE'S AIR MASS RATHER QUICKLY. AS A UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN GULF AIDS IN WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THAT BUILT OVER THE MID STATE ON SUN WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EWD AS THE WORK WEEK AND INTO VETERANS DAY PROGRESSES. BUT DO EXPECTING ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES MOVE MOVE EWD AND MORE OF A WAA EXPECT TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ON VETERANS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL THETA-E VALUES TOMORROW WITHIN THE INCREASING SURFACE RIDGING.
MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT PRESENT AT 700MB WHICH MAY LIMIT STRONG WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION I80 WIND CORRIDORS. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO A STUBBORN INVERSION WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR MOVING OVER A COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS.
838 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY.
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
938 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
1031 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL PULL A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
647 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 AVIATION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
647 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE BIGGEST CHANGES BETWEEN THE SOUNDING AT 12Z AND THE LATEST SOUNDING ARE THAT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED THROUGH THE DAY AND AREA NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SHEAR VALUES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH EVEN AS WINDS BACKED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
1028 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
On Friday afternoon, a sheared out upper trough axis was crossing Nebraska and western Kansas. This was producing enough lift to support some radar returns across southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas, but the vast majority of this was not reaching the ground as the low/mid levels are very dry. The airmass in place on Saturday will be a bit cooler than Friday, so despite continued sunny skies and light winds, highs should remain in the upper 50s for much of the area.
THE AXIS OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND ADVANCING.
THOUGH A FEW CAVEATS REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CIMARRON COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THOSE AREAS FOR THIS GROWING SEASON DUE TO FRIDAY NIGHT/S BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF STIES.