Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
539 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 Very little change is expected with the going weather pattern over the next day or so, with ridging both aloft and at the surface remaining in control across the region. Wednesday looks to be a carbon copy of today, with highs in the low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. The Ozarks should remain under the control of surface and upper level ridging through the period, largely "sandwiched" between tropical/subtropical moisture both to our northwest and to our southeast.
While this will slow afternoon heating, we're already starting out about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Still looks like a fairly quiet week weather-wise as the westerlies remain over the northern Plains and upper Midwest as upper level ridge builds over the region.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE OUT WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROF WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY. -KT NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION STILL ANTICIPATED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
232 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE AND CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO OUR ONGOING FAIR WEATHER.
155 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015 SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND COOLER.
A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
However, given the low confidence, we've only included a scattered group at KSOA and KJCT for now.
225 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS GEORGIA.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING STRETCHES INTO A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
The low-level jet was focused over western Kansas with some weak isentropic lift present on the 310k and 315k surfaces. With mostly sunny skies and southwesterly low-level flow ushering warmer 850mb temperatures eastward across the area today, have increased high temperatures a bit with readings in the middle 80s over eastern Kansas and likely reaching around the 90 degree mark across north central Kansas. Additionally, models are showing another embedded wave developing within the ridge axis further north across northeast Nebraska tonight with precipitation possibly tracking southward toward the Kansas/Nebraska border. Relatively weak west-southwesterly upper flow in place for Wednesday as a show moving and weakening upper trough drifts across the eastern Plains.
MORE VFR FLIGHT IN STORE WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF AC WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SITUATED RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LEAVING FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY.
TONIGHT HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. GENERAL PERSISTENCE FORECAST OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THEN SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER LAKESIDE.
BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S. WHICH ALONG WITH LINGERING MOIST AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT WARMER FROM THOSE OF THIS AM WITH WIDESPREAD 50S. AREAS THAT SEE ANY PROLONGED BOUTS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE KEPT NEAR WARMER END OF GUIDANCE REST OF CWA WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE ALBEIT POSSIBLY FILTERED. COMPLIMENTS OF EASTERLY SFC-850 MB FLOW AROUND LARGE EXPANSE OF NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
08Z MSAS SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH. AND WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY THRU THE DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ROUGHLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED NORTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT MAY RETREAT NORTHWARD BACK INTO OUR COUNTIES AND COULD INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA IN THRU THE EVENING. MAINTAINED ISOLATED TSTMS THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AS THE NAM HINTS AT A SLOWER EASTWARD TREK OF THE STORM AND DEVELOPS SOME ACTIVITY WITHIN THE COLDER UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL CONVERGENCE.
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING ONTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING 2 AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE, ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE DOME. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW BRINGS MOUNTAIN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH AXIS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
1244 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 Although the ridge axis is slowly slipping eastward, high pressure still dominates the weather map for the Midwest this morning. Forecast is looking good and max temps should climb into the lower 80s later this afternoon. reaching the low 80s. Fairly respectable diurnal swings in temperatures, with highs mainly in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s, as skies remain clear to partly cloudy. Broad upper trough over the eastern U. Ridge axis has shifted eastward from yesterday, resulting in more southerly flow for most of the sites. Models move the higher RH closer to PIA and SPI btwn 925mb and 850mb later tonight, then it recedes again overnight.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A dry and tranquil pattern will persist today with high pressure centered over the eastern U. resulting in southeast surface winds, generally keeping the higher surface dew points at bay to the west. In addition to these lower clouds, high level moisture/clouds will be spilling from the Plains into the region this afternoon as flow aloft backs some with progression of the Plains upper ridge. Temperatures will be warmer as well and a bit above average for late Sept. with highs in the lower 80s.
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
with high pressure at both the surface and aloft the predominant controlling weather factor. and ridging building aloft. Thus will daytime highs go from around 80 into the low-mid 80s.
305 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THE REGION WILL HAVE A SUNNY DAY IN STORE.
343 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) The mid-level ridge remains anchored over northern Mexico this afternoon, with the ridge axis extending northeast into TX and OK. Precipitable water values over far west TX are on the order of 150% of normal for this time of year, but the bulk of this moisture will remain off to our west and north as the ridge dominates the pattern over central TX. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees, with afternoon highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s.
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL/NERN COLORADO. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ONLY HAVING MADE IT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHER POPS MAINLY OVER OUR SC NEB COUNTIES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR BEING ON THE LOWER SIDE.
345 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THE REGION WILL HAVE A SUNNY DAY IN STORE.
and so have the cooler temps. along with the weakening ridge. High pressure is forecast to rebuild over Socal/Desert SW and into Norcal Thu and Fri. Dry SWly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal with increasing/locally gusty ridge winds.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER SE TX THIS AFTN AND CURRENT TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE A LENGTHY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESSING DOWN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD THROUGH NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WHERE BETTER UPPER FORCING WITH A S/W TROF WAS FOCUSED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NC/FAR NE TODAY.
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE GULF, LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND CAVOK. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOWING RISING DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BUT A WARM FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH SD. WITH SOME TRYING TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR CWA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT SOUTH. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
510 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED NICE WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z GFS INSISTS ON DRIVING THIS FEATURE NWD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE BETWEEN WARMER THAN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE FOLLOWING ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECWMF PREDICT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE/SIGNIFICANT DRYING.
STRONG ONTARIO SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH MN WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS HAVE AT OR JUST BELOW PERSISTENCE NORTH AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER SOUTH.
348 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING/MOVING EAST AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH.
314 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS TO THE EAST. HRRR HAS INDICATED STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE SE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLD TO SCTD OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTH OF CAPE MENDO TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SAT AND SUN. TOWERING CUMULUS HAS BEEN SPROUTING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY BETTER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON SAT IN THE INTERIOR AS MODIFIED MARINE AIR FILTERS INLAND AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH SKIRTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WITH HEAT INDICES BEING THE HIGHEST SOUTH AND WEST.
HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY TO THE LOWER THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES TO MATCH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND HELP EASE THE TRANSITION INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE CRITERIA IS LOWER AT 100. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. IF THIS MCS DOES NOT PAN OUT AND CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 41 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
332 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW INTO ID BY SAT MORN. A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMS OVER ID ON SATURDAY. PRECIP DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A HOT SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WARM THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING SLOWLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN EXPANSIVE BUT MODERATELY COMPRESSED RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A Canadian upper-level low pressure system east of the Divide will continue to cause cloud cover and showers to spread southward through this evening into the overnight period. This weekend will start with a warmer Saturday, but still below normal temperatures.
332 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE TROUGH HAS SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF WYOMING AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT WILL COOLER AND DRIER AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TODAY WILL FLATTEN OUT TO A MORE E-W ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT. BUT WILL GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX MAINLY ALONG THE COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH HOUSTON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH LIMIT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) Upper level ridge still parked across East Texas and riding westward across Texas. Visible satellite shows a nearly cloud free West Central Texas late this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. More of the same for the next 24 hours, with the ridge not moving.
AS THE LOW ADVANCES ALONG THE US-CAN BORDER INTO MAN/ONT AND OPENS UP. AN ELONGATED +TILT TROF/SHEAR ZONE WILL LINGER FROM MT/ND WSW INTO NRN CA. A SFC TROF WAS OVER WRN NEB/KS. A STORM OR TWO COULD FORM NEAR THE SFC TROF AFTER 3 PM IN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-MCCOOK. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CAP NEVER REALLY ERODES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MEANDERS ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS INCOMING ON WEAK SOUTHERLIES. ORIENTATION OF MID/UPPER HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY EASTERLIES INHIBITING CONVECTION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO THE NEW WEEK.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS YIELDING SUBSIDENCE. WE STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HOT WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EAST WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS IS DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING INLAND NEAR THE COAST. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST.
A DEEPENING CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASK SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRESENTLY MOVING FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY.
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAUSING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. WHICH IS OF CONCERN DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THIS PAST WEEKS ACTIVE PATTERN.
515 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SETTLED TODAY. WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE OF A CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS LEFT A MOSTLY CLEAR HOLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO 90 DEGREES ALREADY AND THUS A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ON THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW AND THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK ONLY HAS CENTRAL NC IN GENERAL THUNDER AT THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN.
REMNANT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL BEING DETECTED ON RADAR PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR. AREAS NOT INCLUDED ARE THE COUNTIES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ON AVG. MODEL CONSENSUS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. RIDGING IS EVEN EXPECTED AT 700MB IN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR CONNECTED TO AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
High pressure centered over the Southern Plains is keeping a hot and humid air mass firmly in place over the region. A series of short waves moving along the northern periphery of the upper level ridge has set off scattered convection across the mid Mississippi into the Texas panhandle overnight. Highs for today and Saturday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values ranging from 99 to 104 today and 100 to 105 on Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain hot and humid through the weekend as the upper level ridge remains in place over the area.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 80S. THE ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE. ONE ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT AFFIXED TO OR OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS SOME TOMORROW BUT REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT. WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THIS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHWARD EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASK MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.