Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1150 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -12C OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER.
355 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW TO ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. THEN CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS LATER TUESDAY. THEN HEAD INTO NRN TX AS A CLOSED LOW TUE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AMPLIFICATION OF A 500MB TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR W U. WITH A LOW DEVELOPING ON THE S END OF THE TROUGH OVER N TX ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. BUT CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS. WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THE MESO MODELS KEEP SHOWING THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST WI AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TUESDAY WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES DURING THE MORNING IF MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE TODAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THOUGH THE MIDWEST.
SNOW LEVELS DROP INTO THE LOWEST VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE -31C COLD CORE RAKES THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START OFF ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
927 AM PST MON FEB 22 2016 THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH INTERIOR CALIFORNIA HAS NOW MOVED INTO AZ. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND IT AND CURRENTLY THERE ARE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN VENTURA COUNTY TO LA COUNTY. THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE IT WILL JUST BE A LITTLE WEAKER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK.
THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FROM LINTON EAST THOUGH OAKES AND NORTH INTO JAMESTOWN. ADDED AREAS OF FOG HERE AND KEPT IT THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WHILE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE THUS INSERTED PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THE RIDGETOPS WITH THE VALLEYS BEING LESS LIKELY TO SEE FOG GIVEN THESE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A LACK OF CLEARING. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALMOST SEEM TO FAVOR MORE DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE GIVEN AN APPRECIABLE DRY WEDGE OF AIR ABOVE THIS LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. IF SO, WE SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW.
WITH A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE.
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW RESIDES SOUTH OF KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR COOLER. AFTER THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORNING LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH BUT STAY IN THE 40S TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
315 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 Clouds have broken up for the most part over the forecast area this afternoon, with highs rising into the low 50s. Temperatures still look to fall near the freezing mark once again, with slightly cooler highs tomorrow in the upper 40s to near 50. Winds start to strengthen from the north later in the afternoon on Tuesday as an upper low deepens over the southern plains. On Tuesday night the lift associated with the northern stream trough will weaken while the main energy within the longwave trough slides east across Arkansas.
Dynamic lift will increase over SW KS, especially by late afternoon, resulting in the lowering ceilings. 500 mb heights lower through Monday, as the developing trough approaches SW KS from the west. Best moisture and dynamic lift glance by far SW Kansas on Tuesday morning, as strong upper low begins intensifying over N TX. With 850 temps hovering around -1C, continued a mention of a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain of the west/SW zones Tuesday morning.
146 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 Surface cyclogenesis is underway in the general vicinity of the Upper Presidio Valley while surface ridging noses in from the n into the PB. A warm front slowly lifting n and helping maintaining an e-se low level component across the Trans Pecos yielding upslope flow and slowly increasing dewpoints. CAPES may near 700 J/KG and with more than sufficient shear there is support for strong-severe storms this PM, especially from Davis Mtns into the Lower Trans Pecos. there is a non- zero tornadic threat early this evening when the low level jet increases along with the presence of said warm front. This will all set up cold mornings Wed/Thur with lows falling to/below freezing. The cooler temps will keep RHs above critical levels.
351 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID WEEK. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY.
High pressure will begin to build over the region tonight, largely bringing showers to an end.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES ACROSS.
234 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING WARM AND DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTH. WHILE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO TONIGHT BUT MAY THIN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS NE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SWD.
1029 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2015 Clouds will stream into Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho associated with both an approaching cold front and a second weather disturbance slightly ahead of the cold front. This cold front will bring more seasonal temperatures and, for some, a threat of light rain.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GA THAT WILL MOVE NNW TOWARD TN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
331 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 An upper level low is evident on satellite imagery spinning across eastern Nebraska this morning. This low, however, will finally retrograde back to the southwest today and take with the added cloud cover, and showers we have experienced the past couple days. With that system a non-player for the local area, the main feature of interest becomes the broad upper level ridging over much of the CONUS.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BAJA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE.
342 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 Clouds are already on the increase this morning ahead of an upper level low approaching from the southeastern states. Highs today will be similar to readings the past couple of days over the western half of the area, with cooler temperatures in the eastern half given the increase in cloud cover. The low will end up drawing moisture from the Atlantic westward into the forecast area over the weekend. Accompanying the low clouds will be a chance of showers. Better chances are forecast over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, with the lowest chances across southeast Missouri. The cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures several degrees cooler than normal, with warmer nighttime readings. In fact, highs on Saturday are only forecast in the lower to mid 70s.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS BUT INCREASED A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NOSING UP INTO THE LOWER 70S. AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH FILLS IN/DISSIPATES. THE FORECAST IS DRY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARMER AIR WILL BE WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARM DAYS WITH COOLER NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
UPPER AIR PATTERN DISPLAYS RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY COMPLEMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPANSIVE AND NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN CONDITIONS LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST WOULD SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A GREATER INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE. TWO WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL LOWS/CIRCULATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE STUCK UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
207 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DIVES SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES.
431 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM GEORGIA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY.
BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY UNDERNEATH FURTHER SUBSIDENCE IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. SO FAR THIS RIDGE HAS THWARTED ATTEMPTS AT FOG ON THE CAPROCK WHERE VERY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXIST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN ELONGATED RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
456 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 High pressure will weaken over the Northern Rockies throughout today, ahead of fast-moving storm system anticipated over the weekend.
402 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TONIGHT THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL FINALLY REACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN FLANK BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE RIDGES. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN CHANCES WILL MAKE IT AS A SINKING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO RETARD DEEPER MOISTURE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORCE THE FILLING LOW TO RETROGRADE WEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD AMPLE DIFFICULTY IN DEALING WITH A DECAYING UPPER LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER THAT REPRESENTS WHAT LITTLE IS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH MAKE A S/SW NOSE DIVE DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LONG- RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND A WEAK MEANDERING UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN KS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE JOINED BY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATE WITH THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEEK WITH A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FL. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
318 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE LIKELY GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. AS SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS HELPING TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTENTLY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
211 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING WARM AND DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS.
302 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A LARGE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY ARCS ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM COAST TO COAST. A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. AND ANOTHER IN THE FORM OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
An upper level ridge will be over the central U. resulting in a seasonable warm air mass as highs in the low to mid 80s occur this afternoon. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler this weekend across mainly the eastern Ozarks where the better coverage in clouds will occur.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ARIZONA EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEABREEZE BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY.
THE CLOUDS WERE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED EASTWARD AS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
140 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM GEORGIA TO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO FAN NORTHWARD FROM UPPER LOW OVR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS TODAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NEW MEXICO TEXAS BORDER DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
426 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WHILE BROAD TROUGHING GENERALLY DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS. THE PRIMARY TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN GEORGIA AND WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE LATTER TWO TROUGHS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY PLAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL MERGE WITH THE S TX TROUGH. THE TROUGH OVER SE TX SHOULD STRENGTH ENOUGH BY SATURDAY THAT THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SLY.
CURRENTLY OUR UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND THE COLUMBUS GEORGIA AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CYCLE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT TOWARD NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE EAST AS WE SHOULD STAY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
Some of the models actually have amounts approaching 1" across Stafford to Barber counties, but did not want to go this high. Wind trajectories are more conducive to fog (from the northeast/upslope) and lower temp/dewpoint depressions are possible as moisture advection occurs on the backside/north side of the departing synoptic trough. Mid level high pressure will continue across the Desert Southwest with the ridge extending out across the central Rockies. At the low levels, a warm air advection pattern with persistent lee troughing is expected across western Kansas. The ECMWF has backed off on a more appreciable chance for cooler weather for the first week of October.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATERVAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVG SOUTHWARD TOWARD S TX THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER POPS ARE PROGD TO SHIFT INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS ON SAT ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW BEING CTRD OVHD. ALSO WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON SAT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WHICH REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL FINALLY REACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN FLANK BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE RIDGES. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN CHANCES WILL MAKE IT AS A SINKING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO RETARD DEEPER MOISTURE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORCE THE FILLING LOW TO RETROGRADE WEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD AMPLE DIFFICULTY IN DEALING WITH A DECAYING UPPER LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
446 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES GENERATES A LEE SIDE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR LIVINGSTON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS FALL SOME ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate most of the conus. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 80s and northeast winds.
MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GA MOVES NNW INTO THE TENN VALLEY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW RESULTS IN LIMITED CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH A SEABREEZE COLLISION AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. ON SATURDAY MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS.
417 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 THE TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
337 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
606 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS BUT INCREASED A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
608 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD.
601 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN PLAYER IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE MOVE TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE TN RIVER TO THE UPPER 80S FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AND DIVES SOUTH.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE US. INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER IN THE AL/GA/FL BORDER AREA. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS EVIDENT WEST OF THE ROCKIES. AND WITH SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. WITH UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ENHANCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN MN.
BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN BEST OVER THE THREE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO OVERNIGHT STREAMER ACTIVITY AND DEEPENING 500 MB LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY LINGER NEAR OR OVER THE SHORELINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN SOME AREAS AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.