Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lesser potential exists from Osceola and Okeechobee Co's toward the Treasure Coast due to proximity of high pressure and lighter environmental flow aloft. Ridge axis will remain across southern sections of central Florida, producing a relatively light (5-10mph) S/SW low level flow across the region. Even with more convective development this afternoon, temps should still be able to rise quickly through the morning and early afternoon with highs reaching the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s over the interior.
Temperatures this morning are running several degrees (+8 for KPHX) above what they were at this time yesterday due to the added cloud cover and warmer temperatures observed yesterday afternoon.
747 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Cold air advection behind departing cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s. We'll be locked in with light cold air advection and high pressure building into the North Country.
1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
/issued 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ Stg upper ridging producing one more day of hot and humid wx across the area. Amplifying upper lvl pattern will produce seasonally stg northerly flow aloft, shifting upper ridge further west.
Relatively light winds associated with an upper-level ridge will result in weak wind shear, with values ranging from 5 knots in Yavapai and northern Gila Counties to 20 knots along the Arizona/Utah border. Storms will develop first across the higher terrain with the steering flow generally taking storms to the north and east. The presence of an inverted trough to the south will turn the flow aloft to the southeast over the weekend.
Multi-Day Reprieve from Summer Heat and Oppressive Humidity has Arrived with Daytime Temps Fcst to Average Slightly Cooler Aloft: Overnight AMDAR (aircraft) winds and WV imagery showed a subtropical high over the TX Panhandle and it encompassed the center of the CONUS. Trofs were along both coasts. the high will gradually advance into the GtLakes. A great night for opening up the windows with lows in the low-mid 60s. Cooler temperatures than what were seen the past few weeks and 2. This helps to keep temperatures slightly cooler. any small disturbance (and there are a number of them) that drops down across the area as it moves into the trough over the East could help to fire off showers or thunderstorms. Multi-layered SCT clds this morning with the lowest 2-3K ft near EAR.
728 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Aviation A cold front will move through Lower Michigan today with only scattered showers and thunderstorms then drier conditions can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds in. Forecast issues in the near term are for POPs today as cold front moves through with a few showers and thunderstorms, then the potential for some diurnally enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday as upper low comes through. Heights fall and lapse rates steepen on Friday morning as an upper low moves across the central Great Lakes with showers and thunderstorms diurnally enhanced into the afternoon.
Models forecast this dry area to come across northern Utah today with 500mb moisture decreasing as well as a 700-500mb theta-e trough right over nrn Utah by 00Z Friday. There is a weak disturbance over the lower Colorado River near the srn tip of Nevada that will likely increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the southwest mountains and the Iron and Beaver County region. The GFS shows a theta-e ridge right in this area with perpendicular 500-700mb wind flow into it by 00Z.
A cold front will move south slowly across the area today bringing a shift to northerly winds, and possibly a brief period of MVFR stratus this morning to GAG/WWR. For the next several days we will be on the eastern periphery of mid- upper high heights center to our west.
100 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Hydro A cold front will move through Lower Michigan today with only scattered showers and thunderstorms then drier conditions can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds in. Forecast issues in the near term are for POPs today as cold front moves through with a few showers and thunderstorms, then the potential for some diurnally enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday as upper low comes through. Heights fall and lapse rates steepen on Friday morning as an upper low moves across the central Great Lakes with showers and thunderstorms diurnally enhanced into the afternoon.
At the surface, high pressure will be dominant over the Northern Plains through the day Friday, then gets pushed east, with the CWA being situated between it and low pressure over the lee of the Rockies.
South winds a touch breezy to start the TAF period but should drop off, veer to SW/W later tonight, then switch to north and remain light behind a weak cold front. The leading edge of a cold front may backdoor into the southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains Friday night but should stall out in the face of deep westerly flow and mixing.
/issued 212 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/ A spring-like pattern will keep the weather on its feet over the next few days with fire weather and a strong cold front in the offing. Broad upper ridging to our west will break down over the next few days as a series of troughs move across the West and Plains. Winds will also increase across the higher terrain and adjacent plains creating fire weather concerns. Temperatures will warm well above normal Friday as a pronounced low level thermal ridge develops across W TX and S NM.
Cyclonic flow around upper level trough to our northeast continues to generate clouds and scattered flurries early this afternoon, mainly across the eastern half of the region. As high pressure nudges into the region, clouds will depart eastward leaving behind mainly clear skies this evening/overnight. High pressure doesn't stick around long though, as warm front begins to develop across the region tomorrow as weak surface pressure develops to our west in Kansas. As we head into the latter half of the weekend, the forecast becomes a bit more tricky with a large upper level trough covering the Midwest down into the Mid south.
1244 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday.
116 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A pronounced upper level low centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will slowly migrate eastward away from the Ohio Valley tonight into the day on Friday.
A cold front will follow for Friday night/Saturday. With a lack of moisture aloft leading to a lack of ice crystals, soundings indicate the potential for periods of light freezing rain to mix in with snow. Any periods of light freezing rain should be brief, and with little moisture/lift to work with accumulation and therefore impacts should be minimal. Breezy northwest winds 15 to 25 mph will develop behind the cold front Saturday. Highs Saturday will reach the lower to mid 30s.
840 PM PST Thu Mar 8 2018 Friday will be another dry, mild day with weak high pressure aloft.
305 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Quiet conditions and warmer temperatures are expected today as temperatures increase aloft, even despite light easterly flow at the surface.
Winds are starting to pick up across the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley as upper low moves onshore, but should remain below advisory levels. Next mid/upper level is moving SE with trough axis near 128W about to move across Vancouver Island. The trough axis reaches the Cascades crests before daybreak Friday and then moves rapidly across the forecast area in the morning and exits into Idaho/Montana Friday afternoon. As such expect a dry trough passage with just mostly cloudy skies at lower elevations with a mix of rain and snow in the mountains overnight. High pressure builds over the region Friday night and Saturday for dry Conditions.
For the rest of today, daily max temperatures will climb in the low to mid 60s as an area of broad high pressure dominates the area. Lows will be in the lower 30s.
222 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Early this morning, high pressure was located across the area. This area will see the lowest temperatures today as clouds move into the area. Tonight, slightly stronger winds and southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures than this morning as our next system moves towards our area.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Expecting high clouds (based over 12 kft) to increase over the region gradually over the next 24 hours with some ceilings between 5 and 10 kft possible before the end of the TAF period around GLH (and in far western zones).
Slightly warmer air will be in place but with the wave moving through to the south and a widespread snowpack winds will lock in from the east. This will bring through some weak warm advection and an inverted trough.
326 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Still dealing with some residual flurries as the mid level trough continues to slowly push east this morning. This happens as a warm front developing to the south of Kentucky moves into the state. However, wet bulb temperatures will be around freezing, so as precip rates increase, we will see a transition over to snow, mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. The warm ground and near freezing surface temperatures will make this the case.
255 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Models show a warm front developing across/lifting into extreme southern portions of the PAH forecast area or just south of our counties by late today.
High pressure will bring warm days and dry weather through Saturday afternoon.
325 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure centered over the local area this morning. Low pressure over Maine exiting the country, while another low over British Columbia has a frontal system extending down the lee side of the Rockies into the Texas Panhandle. Under the high, with light winds, temperatures have ranged from the upper 30s north to the lower 50s at Boothville. High pressure will move eastward today and be off the eastern Florida coast by late this evening.
248 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Warm front brings snow to the southern zones tonight. Low level thermal trough begins to erode from the northeast mountains after 15Z this morning, and will slowly diminish the snow in that region after that. Meanwhile, a strengthening deformation zone along a warm front extending from a southern high plains developing low pressure system will bring the next round of accumulating snow to the area, confined to the far southern CWA.
On Friday, high pressure will begin departing to the east. / Issued 414 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/ High pressure over Arkansas will slowly move east and be replaced by frontal system over the weekend. The upper level pattern has a trough moving into the area over the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 56 43 57 / 10 10 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 51 40 55 / 10 10 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 25 50 39 54 / 10 20 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 47 33 53 / 20 10 60 40.
Snow showers continue to rotate around the western edge of a persistent New England cyclone, generating light snows across NY and Northern PA. The highest snow accumulations will occur downwind of Lake Ontario, where 1 to 3 inches of new accumulation is forecast by this evening.
An upper level trough of low pres will move east across the Pacific NW early Fri, then a ridge of high pres will bring drier weather for the weekend. The next chance for a more widespread rain comes Mon night and Tue as a cold front moves in off the Pacific.
/issued 955 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/ Another quiet night across the ArkLaTex is expected, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc dominate our weather pattern.
Lower elevations will see a better chance of precipitation Friday as an upper low tracks through the NW interior. Showers accompanying an upper trough and weak cold front will expand into southeast Oregon and the remainder of southwest Idaho on Friday. The showers will end Friday night with dry conditions through Saturday night as an upper ridge moves into the area. It will remain locally breezy through Friday with light winds accompanying the ridge on Saturday.
High pressure over the region today will slowly shift east through tonight.
Otherwise, highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, warmest in the southwest and southeast Panhandle where highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable values, and light northwest-north breezes will prevail today. Latest water vapor imagery shows the broad ridge in place over the western and central CONUS and the next disturbance digging into British Columbia and WA. Neutral to slightly positive 500 hPa height rises will occur overhead with the ridge remaining largely in place over the Northern and Central Plains. Otherwise, lee-side troughing is expected again as it sharpens and evolves northward near the Front Range to Laramie mountains.
High pressure ALOFT will weakening overnight, then strengthen once again to the west of Utah heading into the weekend.
331 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday.
305 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 The upper low which impacted the region over the last couple of days has exited to the east of the Great Lakes and will reside over New England today. This wave will become highly sheared as it enters the mid level confluent flow across the Great Lakes region left in the wake of the departing upper low.
High pressure will continue move east while low pressure develops across the high plains overnight. However winds will shift during the day depending on where you are at from ESE to a more NE direction by later in the day as the low moves east of the area.
227 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 We will remain in between high pressure exiting Minnesota, and nearing low pressure stretching from southern Canada to eastern Wyoming. For tonight, the focus will be on the 500mb trough currently over southern British Columbia.
458 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Exiting low pressure system will bring west/northwest flow continuing throughout today as cold and fairly moist air funnel into southeast Michigan. The upper low which impacted the region over the last couple of days has exited to the east of the Great Lakes and will reside over New England today. This wave will become highly sheared as it enters the mid level confluent flow across the Great Lakes region left in the wake of the departing upper low.
1137 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 A deep upper low just east of the Great Lakes will lift into the northeastern CONUS, while a ridging pattern across the Central and Northern Plains will begin to flatten heading into Friday morning. Low-level moisture will then arrive Friday afternoon as a warm front lifts into the area.
Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tnt in the teens.
ECMWF (warmer) and the GFS / NAM have come in with up to 12 degree differences. How fast the front moves through and cold air moves in Friday night / Saturday depends on the model, so kept the general blend for this low and high. With this in mind kept the higher POPs southeast. Beyond Saturday, a cooler but dry air mass sets up pretty firmly in place, keeping out any precipitation chances and reducing fire weather concerns.
This will bring snow showers to the central mts Fri night through Sat morning, then perhaps a shower or two for the plains as a cold front pushes south late Sat morning.
300 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure will continue to support periodic snow showers through Friday. Dry weather returns Saturday under high pressure. The mid level trough axis should cross the area early this morning, with a gradual decrease in coverage thereafter. Boundary layer convergence and some lake enhancement should continue early this morning N of I 80, with terrain enhancement in the ridges. Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
In the upper levels, the trough axis is now to the east with northwesterly flow aloft. Any lingering light snow showers/flurries should come to an end near daybreak as the upper level trough continues to move to the east. The low level ridge will move to the southeast with westerly to southwesterly flow by the end of the day. Model soundings indicate that the low levels will be dry and wet bulb processes will push the boundary layer profile below freezing. Eventually, the low level warm advection will win out with surface temperatures climbing into the low 40s across Southwest Virginia and expect all rain by late Saturday morning.
Updated aviation discussion Periodic thick high clouds will continue to affect the region this week despite high pressure locked in place.
1048 PM MST Thu Mar 8 2018 21Z upper level analysis has large trof across the Great Lakes and New England area, with ridging across the west. Across the Northern Plains, skies are mostly cloudy with just some mid to high level cirrus topping the ridge. At the surface, cold high pressure resides across Minnesota, with warm frontal boundary in the lee of the Rockies. Western upper ridge will slowly shift east tonight and Friday as weak warm frontal boundary lifts northeast across the area. A mix of precipitation is expected Friday night, changing to snow Saturday morning, and then change back to rain or a mix across warmer parts of western SD in the afternoon.
Weakening Pacific upper trough will move due east across nrn WA today and into MT tonight. Poorly-defined surface cold front in OR this morning will move into wrn ID midday and eastern ID tonight. Showers will increase in our zones today as the moisture gets drawn into the cold front. Winds will be light south or southeast this morning, light to moderate west/northwest behind the cold front this afternoon, light and variable tonight, then light to moderate easterly Saturday.
There is a possibility for more 4 thsd ft clouds to develop by noon, but they should dissipate for the late afternoon as high pressure spreads into the region. Expect a lake breeze Friday and Saturday afternoons as high pressure builds across the Great lakes.
A short wave trough over Washington state will track east-southeast over the next 24 hours. Snow will increase in mountains after midnight when the cold front passes through. As the moisture deepens in the high country and instability becomes more favorable snow amounts will increase into Saturday morning. On the plains, a cold front is progged to push south during the morning hours bringing cooler temperatures and increased winds as subsidence pushes in behind the exiting trough Saturday afternoon. Temperatures for Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler then previous days with highs in the lower to mid 50s and 20s in the mountains.
235 AM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Flat upper ridge will shift east today as weak warm front lifts northeast across western South Dakota. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): In the middle layers of the atmosphere, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be caught between ridging over the West Coast of the United States and troughing over the East Coast. Meanwhile, at the surface, a moderate onshore flow today and tonight will be briefly interrupted by a weak cold front that will push into the BRO CWFA on Saturday. Above normal temperatures today and tonight will become even more so on Saturday as the weak cold front produces a downsloping effect off the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico.
Light, accumulating snow is best from the Mobridge area, to Miller and Huron where a half inch of snow is possible. Kept temperatures on the cooler side of guidance on Friday, even with the weak WAA. A mix is possible early Saturday, but should pretty much turn to snow as lift saturates and cools the lower and mid levels. The rest of the forecast should be mainly dry as a mid level ridge slowly transitions east into the Northern and Central Plains. After that the mercury is expected to rise as the upper ridge propagates into the area.
/issued 918 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/ High pressure prevails over the Mid-South with just a few high clouds passing through. Temps are cooling quickly this evening and will fall to the freezing mark or below across much of the Mid- South. These clouds have kept temperatures in the low 40s. with warmer readings found elsewhere across the Midsouth. Believe models just tend to struggle with both the intensity and timing of descending waves phasing with the main trough.
Highs on Saturday will be modulated by clouds and a cold front moving into area with readings in the 40s to lower 50s.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the lower Mississippi Valley.
206 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Pretty quiet across central and southeast Illinois early this morning, with an axis of high pressure drifting overhead. Main concern will be with the development of a warm front just south of the Ohio River toward late afternoon. As for type, the easterly flow at the lower levels does not bode for a significant warming at the surface, and the drier air will allow for some evaporative cooling. A blocking pattern, courtesy of the residual upper low and a second low dropping south from Hudson Bay, will keep dry weather over our area through mid week. By that point, the upper low will finally be moving out, and a building ridge to our west will spread eastward. High pressure will drift slowly across the region through tomorrow morning bringing light winds and a mostly clear sky.
/issued 813 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018/ Dry and cooler high pressure is in place across the area this evening. Temperatures across portions of the Nature Coast may touch freezing, and patchy frost is possible toward morning. The high pressure center to the west of the state will gradually shift east to over the area for Friday and then continue east for Saturday, turning winds from the NW to the NE/E Friday and then continuing around to the SE for Saturday.
To our west, a lee trough is developing, and by Friday, we'll have stronger south winds and increasing moisture. For locations that receive full sun across northeast Oklahoma, highs in the low to mid 70s look good on Friday. By Friday night, a cold front will be located along the KS/OK border, leaving most of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the developing warm sector. Models have backed off the higher rain chances on Saturday, with the highest chances now across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
As the upper-level trough and associated cold pool begin to move northeast out of the region today, temperatures will warm back into the middle to upper 60s region wide.
/issued 427 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night) Quite cool afternoon is ongoing, and below normal temperatures will prevail through the remainder of week as high pressure dominates. Tonight's minima will be the lowest since the end of January, with 40s all areas except for Miami and the Atlantic coasts of Broward and Miami Dade counties. As the center of high pressure spreads to the east of Florida, wind will turn southeasterly and warmer and more moist air will invade this weekend. Some shower activity will begin Saturday over the north and west, but most areas will stay just until Saturday night, when a pseudo-warm front may cross the region.
An upper level ridge was centered to the west of the area. Not much change is expected through the next 12 to 24 hours as the ridge hangs out to the west. The highest peaks could see an isolated 4 to 6 inches above 10,000 feet.
1202 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Southerly flow in the low levels will keep CIGs MVFR in Austin and San Antonio through afternoon.
Ceilings and visibilities lower tonight, as a cold front approaches from the north, and rain spreads into the Mid-State from the southwest.
Light north winds prevail at the surface with high pressure over the plains.