Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The responsible low pressure system center is currently anchored over Washington State and the fetch of moisture streaming around its southern flank is aimed directly through our region. Even with the trough axis push and the main push of snow through this area overnight tonight, there still exist some points of disagreement in the models regarding timing, placement, and amounts of precipitation. These impacts should remain through Saturday morning as the cold front clears the snow away toward the east through Saturday afternoon.
Rain chances wl diminish heading into Sat as the frontal bndry lifts back NWD and high pressure aloft starts to bld back into the Mid- South.
To the south, an upper ridge over Mexico will keep zonal flow aloft over the region into the extended, resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures thru the weekend.
Highs will range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. Forecast soundings indicate the low levels are quite dry during the evening with virga suggested.
Otherwise, partial clearing has occurred as Canadian high pressure approached from the Northern Plains. Aside from lingering light snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle in far north central WI early, dry conditions are anticipated as the Canadian high passes through today.
Mix of IFR to MVFR conditions will persist until around 18Z and then the low clouds will finally break and skies will clear for the remainder of the period. Southwest parts of the forecast area expected to reach the lower- to mid-70s.
The cold front will trail by a few hours and should be through the entire area by 15Z.
The cold front was located from just west of McCall to just west of Ontario to southwest Harney County as of 10 am MDT, and is forecast to move slowly southeast through the day. Expect widespread precipitation and mountain obscuration through this evening, with rain and areas of MVFR ceilings in the lower valleys, and snow with IFR/local LIFR conditions in the mountain valleys above 5000 ft MSL.
1017 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 Showers and storms are moving into the Plateau counties ahead of an approaching cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 60 75 61 / 40 50 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 59 74 59 / 40 60 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 59 74 60 / 60 70 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 56 71 55 / 60 50 50 20.
/issued 356 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ The weak cold front has pushed southwest across most of the forecast area with low clouds lagging behind by some 75-90 miles to the northeast of the leading edge of the front.
Currently we will indicate highs from the lower to mid 40s north with upper 40s to lower 50s south.
With temps already reaching the raob's convective in the lower 80s, suspect we could see a few showers develop beneath the cap, which jibes well with inherited grids/zones and latest high-res guidance. /issued 400 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ A cold front is draped over the southern plain states and extends as far south as Texas. North of the cold front temperatures are in the 30s and 40s with some upper 20s across the northern tier of the US. As funny as it sounds Lake Charles is warmer than Miami with Beaumont holding at the same temperature as Miami. Generally this would be enough to give us a few more storms but weak ridging aloft will hold this in check.
Current obs are indicating the surface cold front has stalled just north of Middle Tennessee this morning. Have lowered today's high temperatures over much of the area to adjust for lingering cloud cover into this afternoon keeping temperatures cooler. A cold front, dropping into the area today, and then moving back north as a warm front tonight, will keep mainly MVFR conditions at Middle Tennessee terminals through the forecast period. Isolated thunderstorms, ahead of the cold front today, may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.
The upper flow will become slightly southwesterly today, as and upper trough digs southward across the Pacific Northwest. A warmer airmass will reside west of the forecast area today. Went near Consmos for highs today with the warmer temperatures near 50 degrees in the eastern panhandle and western portions of Keith, Perkins and Chase county. For tonight, a warm front will move east across most of western Nebraska as H85 temperatures warm to 11 to 13 Celsius. Slightly colder in the lower 30s southwest. The weekend will start off quiet as high pressure remains over the region. A cold front will drop south across the region on Saturday night.
a nice split flow pattern will be in place as a deep area of low pressure resides across northern Canada and allows polar jet to traverse across the northern tier of the US while a large anticyclone builds across central Mexico and allows subtropical jet to ride over associated ridge and promote southern stream flow across the central and southern US. Sfc pattern looks to feature a cyclone in the lee of the northern Rockies while Canadian high pressure banks down the lee side of the Appalachians. POPs should decrease after sunset on Saturday as mid level ridging builds in.
Surface winds will be South to Southwest 6-12 knots for most sites with the exception of where the cold front passes and provide a more Westerly flow such as parts of East and Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. /issued 500 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ Cloudy and warm area wide with low to mid 70s for most, but is a tad cooler NW sections with a weak cold front on approach. Otherwise, the next big cold front will arrive for mid to late week temperature wise.
914 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017 As the low moves east and out of the region, the snow and precip will taper off through today.
510 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017 As the low moves east and out of the region, the snow and precip will taper off through today.
Low pressure and associated remnants from Harvey across northwest Mississippi will push northeast toward the Ohio Valley tonight.
Tonight and Friday Despite abundant sunshine, the last day of meteorological summer felt more like autumn as daytime highs were around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year as high pressure brought a cold airmass to the western Great Lakes region. Near the Michigan border lows could get as low as the lower to middle 30s, which would create frost concerns across that portion of the cwa later tonight. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather on Friday, with sunny skies and highs around 70 degrees. Friday Night Through Thursday Increasing clouds ahead of an approaching surface system and mid level trough should keep temperatures from getting as cold on Friday night as they are expected to be tonight, but they will still be well below normal at many locations.
For this afternoon, as the low center moves into northwest AL, a large shield of rain and embedded thunder will spread across our southwest counties, and as far northeast as Nashville by 6 PM CDT. The increased shear, particularly at low levels, will bring the potential for very isolated tornadoes on the east side of the low, with the greatest risk over our southern counties late this afternoon and evening. Widespread showers and isolated thunder will accompany the low.
Across the state of Mississippi, surface winds generally shift across this front but as this feature extends into Alabama, it is primarily defined by a pressure trough with little in the way of a wind shift or change in the thermodynamic environment. Tornadoes remain possible as we remain in the synoptically favored right front quadrant of a former tropical cyclone.
200 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A Pacific low pressure trough will moves east across the area this evening with showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening, mainly in the west and north, decreasing after midnight with partial clearing. Temperatures will be cooler behind the trough but warm rapidly with clearing as high pressure builds north and east from the Great Basin through the weekend.
However, tonight through tomorrow morning the front will sink through the area as upper level trough moves through the region. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s tomorrow Tomorrow night, storms will develop west of the area along a cold front and sag towards the area as high pressure builds into the local area.
358 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Upper level high over the desert southwest looks to persist over the next 7 days though it's influence looks to begin to wane in the latter extended. A cold front still sags into the area though, if things continue the way they have all summer, the front could push south of the CWFA.
Could see a cluster or two of showers/thunderstorms venture into central and south-central Kansas Friday evening and night, as an elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest.
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Much cooler and less humid air is on the way into SE Michigan after the morning frontal passage. Guidance is solidly in the lower to mid 40s inland and outside of metro Detroit, 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Meanwhile, afternoon temps should be a degree or two cooler today across the eastern half of the area, although triple digit heat will likely continue across the Mid to Upper Valley. Have kept temps lightly warmer on Friday as well.
Thunder threat remains isolated at best, and essentially non existent in the main heavy rain axis NW of the low track tonight.
Meanwhile to our west, the upper ridge continues to nose northeastward out of the four corners region into the northern plains. With our area in between the two systems, low level easterly flow and slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue for another day. Next trof in the flow advances toward the state across the Rockies, with little sensible influence until later Friday evening. Could see some early morning patchy fog Friday morning, otherwise some increasing clouds from the west, with overnight lows near 60 and highs rising to the low 80s once again.
354 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A mid-level trough axis will continue to traverse the central Rockies this evening. The mid-level trough will sag southeastward across Colorado overnight and into Friday morning.
402 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Deep layer ridge axis is to our north this afternoon, resulting in deep easterly flow across the region. FRIDAY THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Upper level low moving through the Canadian Maritimes/New England is expected to pick up TD Harvey as it moves across the TN/OH Valley into the weekend. These features will result in the upper level ridge axis being displaced further south, and a weakening of the low level ridge as an associated frontal boundary is briefly able to get further into the Florida peninsula.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected, with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains today and tomorrow.
Tranquil weather continues in the short term period as what is left of Harvey pulls out of the region to the northeast and high pressure builds. generally in the lower 70s.
216 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A strong cold front will push southeast through the region this afternoon. Dry and cool weather will follow for tonight through Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds out of the Great Lakes. The remnants of what was once Hurricane Harvey will move northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley and approach the region this weekend. Surface observations and RAP meso anal suggest the cold front is now moving through central PA and should clear the southern zones by nightfall. High temps Friday will be in the lower 60s across much of the northern and western Mountains, and in the mid 60s elsewhere. Temperatures will average some 10-15 deg cooler than normal.
Even with small CAPE values the strength of the low-level shear will give a slight risk for a few tornadoes to occur across the region per Day 2 Severe Outlook.
/Today through Tonight/ Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will get pinched between a Great Lakes trough tied to the remnants of Harvey and a short wave to the west breaking down the ridge. Temps will be a little cooler today especially northeast today and area wide tonight.
Although the region, will remain in a broad upper trof.
high pressure has been slipping down around the backside of Harvey.
Upper ridge building into the region today and continuing through the weekend.
Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a low pressure trough advancing through the region with an area of associated precipitation lifting ENE through the SE highlands. Dry conditions prevail through the weekend as the ridge rebounds along the coast and slowly migrates inland. Look for clear skies and overall light winds on Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft continued this afternoon from northern California southeastward into far west Texas.
135 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A frontal boundary will drop south through the area this morning into the early afternoon bringing clouds and cooler temperatures. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s. Brisk easterly winds will develop between high pressure building into the Great lakes and low pressure tracking into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday.
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 The amplified ridge over the west will begin to break down today and tonight as a strong upper disturbance moves across northern Canada. Energy associated with this disturbance will act to break down the ridge bringing a short wave into the Plains states. This trough will be approaching the region Friday morning. As the upper trough approaches and lee troughing at the surface deepens southerly winds will be somewhat stronger than the previous few days. Highs on Friday are again expected to be in the low to mid 80s.
This will result in slightly warmer temperatures, but still below average for the 1st day of September.
High pressure will be re-building to the west and moving back over the Northern Rockies, diminishing any remaining wind and creating a much more stable atmosphere going into the weekend.
The most notable feature is some haze/smoke advecting in from NW flow aloft, while lower level winds are from the NE behind this morning's cold front. High pressure across northern Lake Superior will shift to the eastern Great Lakes Friday, while upper level ridging keeps the remnants of Harvey confined south and east of the area. Cool northeast winds will again keep temps from topping the lower 70s in spite of decent sunshine, with dangerous wave conditions hanging on through the day and likely not easing until the evening or overnight hours.
With a strong cold front approaching and an upper level jet nosing in, a round of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop in northeast ND and along the Red River Valley as deep layer shear increases and the capping inversion erodes.
1257 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Surface map early this morning had a cold frontal boundary pushing southward into northern IL/central IA as high pressure was building in from Ontario Canada. For today, high pressure over southern Ontario will continue to pump in drier/cooler air into the area. Will keep the forecast dry for now given the high pushing lower dew point air in. High pressure maintains control across the area through Friday night. Highs Friday will be in the lower/middle 70s.
High pressure will remain in control across the region on Friday providing dry and quiet weather.
Upper level high pressure over the southwest portion of the nation will promote quiet and dry weather across the Southern Plains tonight and tomorrow.
307 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A deep mean layer anticyclone centered north of the Bahamas has moved very little over the past 24 hours. This morning's 12Z RAOB analyses indicate rising heights from 925 through 700 mb across the state of Florida, indicating the low level ridge has nudged westward. The building low level ridge supports a little more breeze across the coastal waters compared to previous days. The KBYX radar detects a favored area of convection across the deeper waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, in the lee of the Lower Keys, within a swath of lower tropospheric speed convergence.
models in better agreement with a cold front dropping south through the evening hours.
135 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A cold front will bring scattered showers today.
07Z water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge from the four corners region through the northern plains. An upper level trough has propagated on shore over the Pacific northwest. At the surface, high pressure continued to prevail from the Great Lakes through the southern high plains. For temps, the surface ridging is expected to maintain an easterly low level flow with no real warm air advection. So temps should be pretty similar to the last couple days with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
A quasi-stationary upper level high pressure system over the intermountain west will keep our area mostly dry as the southeastern extent reached the Panhandles.
In the low levels, a lee trough over the northern High Plains at present will advance across western portions of the Dakotas and NE tonight into Friday before stalling near or to the west of our area Friday night.
216 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A lead disturbance crossing the upper ridge over western Nebraska and western South Dakota bringing isolated showers to the northwest Sandhills this afternoon. The highest chances near 30 percent west of Ainsworth through North Platte overnight. skies will become mainly cloudy overnight, and raised lows a few degrees to the low to mid 60s. The higher chances will be in the morning at 30 to 40 percent near and east of highway 83.
A broad upper level trough is projected to encompass the Northern Plains towards the latter half of the extended. ND is on the dry side of the trough; chances for rain overall are slim.
The high pressure center aloft has moved slightly east today as a weak trough moves through the Great Basin region. The Great Basin trough slides east across Utah tonight and a few showers overnight cannot be ruled out. High pressure will build from the Pacific northwest across the western United States through the upcoming Labor Day weekend leading to a continuation of the current weather pattern. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than average for early September.
As Harvey continues to move away, a series of upper level disturbances will move down from the plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
/Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017/ An upper high over the Four Corners region today and tonight will allow for a dry northerly upper flow across the Panhandles. As an upper trough approaches the Panhandles from the northern and central Rockies by late Friday and Friday night, the upper high will shift south over the southern Rockies and allow for a northwesterly upper flow to prevail. Convection should develop over the higher terrain and mountains of the central and southern Rockies which would propagate southeastward into the far northwest portions of the forecast area by late Friday and then across much of the Panhandles, especially the northern, central and eastern portions, Friday night.
1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A weak backdoor cold front will move southwest into northeastern MO this afternoon.
Strong subsidence behind the cold front that came through last night helped to transport the smoke from the upper levels down to the ground. Quiet weather will persist through Friday night with high pressure overhead. Highs Friday will be a notch warmer than today, upper 60s near the lake and lower 70s inland.
1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 -SHRA have been intermittently affecting keld and kmlu early this afternoon, as Tropical Depression Harvey continues to track northeastward towards the lower/central Mississippi Valley. A fast movg cool front will approach Tue bringing a better chance of convection across the area, clearing from the north on Wed as stg northerly flow aloft resulting from stg upper ridging over western states, drives this front coastbound. Durg the weekend, aftn highs expected in upper 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in upper 60s to lower 70s, to be achieved prior to the postfrontal cooler temps mid week.
At the surface, a backdoor cold front extended across northern IA and northern IL with an area of high pressure further to the north. Clearing skies and a cooler airmass building in for areas N and W of STL metro should allow temps to slip into the 50s for min temps tonight, but the clouds sticking around for STL metro and areas S and E will likely keep temps in the 60s. High temperatures Friday will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and lows Friday night will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes region southwest into MO on the backside of Harvey.
330 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 High pressure has led to plenty of sunshine across the Northland today, with a bit more cloudiness across parts of far northern Minnesota. The high will aid in keeping skies mostly clear tonight and winds will become light for most areas. It will be a cool night with lows dropping into the lower to middle thirties over parts of the Arrowhead and over mainly Iron County in northern Wisconsin. It will be cooler along the North Shore.
1213 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Two weak troughs will pass over the northern Rockies and clip northern CO and UT today and tonight. These will force the persistent ridge over the central Rockies to collapse and retreat to the south. A broad but broken band of mainly mid and high cloud will define these troughs as they move through. By Friday morning the area of precipitation should be confined to the Continental Divide and the San Juan mountains where a boundary associated with the upper troughs will stretch from east to west across the four corners region.
Upper level impulses moving east out of Montana and Wyoming were dampening the upper level ridge that has been in place the past few days over the Rockies and western plains.
MOS output is trending a bit cooler with mid 50s for lows as opposed to the slighlty warmer raw models which are trending to show slightly warmer lows in the upper 50s this morning. Most MOS and models are indicating a few more degrees warmer in the southwest for Friday afternoon, but still in the mid to upper 80s and not far from normal early September highs.
1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Upper ridge remains in place across Colorado today, though increasing energy will begin to flatten it somewhat by late afternoon and overnight as wave ejects from the Great Basin. Instability increases slightly as mid level moisture crests the ridge and drops south in the region, and with weak upward motion spreading across the state, suspect we'll see an upturn in tsra along and west of I-25 in the afternoon.
700 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Brisk easterly winds will develop between high pressure building into the Great lakes and low pressure tracking into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday.
Think we will see some low to mid 30s in the usual cold airport places such as Land O' Lakes, Tomahawk, and Manitowish Waters, but anywhere close to the hundreds of warm lakes will probably be five degrees warmer. Comparisons to similar upper air and surface conditions on the Saint louis University analog web site suggests a 30 percent chance of sub freezing temperatures just north of the Michigan border between Land O'Lakes and Iron Mountain.
A 594 mb elongated upper level high continues to build from over the Bahamas towards the southern Florida peninsula. For the weekend, the high settles near Bermuda, keeping a similar pattern in place.
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 This afternoon high pressure was centered over the upper Great Lakes. Flow off this high lead to a back door cold front moving into the area. Drier air and cooler temperatures are advecting into the area, leading to a beautiful Thursday. This flow and high pressure will be the primary weather producers through the short term. Convergence along the cold front will lead to stratus clouds and possibly showers and an isolated rumble of thunder. Tonight, clouds should clear and cooler and drier air filters in. The NAM is the lowest with temps near 40 across the far northwest.