Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
an upper level trough axis will move across the forecast area this morning and out of the area this afternoon. For tonight, near zonal flow is expected ahead of another upper trough axis to our northwest. Favorable moisture in the 850-500mb layer and lift associated with the upper trough will promote slight chance and chance pops for light snow this morning, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. there has been rather good agreement the past several days in bringing the upper trough into the forecast area during the night. Otherwise, we finally rise above the freezing mark with highs in the lower 30s to around 40.
Highs in the south will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s while areas in the northwest may barely reach the lower 60s. Rain chances will increase in our west after midnight as a cold front moves into the area with numerous to widespread showers. Cooler air will begin to move in behind the front which will cause overnight lows to range from the upper 30s northwest to lower 60s southeast. Highs will range from the lower 50s northwest to lower 70s southeast.
West Texas Mesonet as of 1:30 PM shows temperatures in the low 40s in the central South Plains, with mid-20s in the eastern Rolling Plains.
241 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Above average temperatures persist through the weekend as the high pressure system remains in control. Strong ridging aloft will keep any rain chances out of the areas.
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 High pressure reaches west across northern Florida, supporting moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A deep and stubborn ridge complex persists across the Caribbean and Central America, noted by the large expanse of dry and stable air on water vapor imagery. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 80s, and nil rain chances. High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will stretch west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
Low pressure centered over southern Missouri will gradually move east through the period. Precip on the northern end of this low and wrap around will affect the area through the mid evening. Some freezing drizzle was reported across the far southern and eastern portions of the CWA. This should turn to snow as cooler air moves into the area. This low and the snow will drive the weather through the next few hours. This was likely due to less ice aloft and just slightly warmer temperature profiles that kept ice from forming. Friday, high pressure will filter into the area behind the departing snow maker. The weekend will be characterized by plenty of sunshine with much warmer temperatures.
High clouds will increase during the day Friday, ahead of a trough moving across the northern and central Rockies.
Still the potential for some light freezing drizzle or flurries for the remainder of this afternoon across northern zones and will wait closer to issuance time concerning canceling any headlines early.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70. High pressure will persist across northern Florida, beneath a rather stubborn and uniform mean layer anticyclone centered very near the Florida Keys.
Temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago, with teens and lower 20s.
525 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 An upper trough continues to advance eastward across the Central and Northern Plains this afternoon, and will be located across the Great Lakes Region by Friday morning. Some light snow occurred today with the passage of the trough, and amounts generally ranging from 1/2" to locally 3". At the surface, a light westerly downslope flow will begin to dislodge the Arctic air, with highs topping the freezing mark across southwest for the first time in days.
Ensembles and operational model runs indicate a general ridging pattern for the next several days with a warming trend into the weekend and early work week.
High pressure will build over the region this weekend pushing temperatures back into a normal range.
Freezing temperatures likely in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend. A ridge just off the West Coast is keeping the area dry, yet, it is also allowing the steering current to continue pushing cold northerly air into the region. With the cold air-mass still in place over the West, will see another cold night with widespread freezing temperatures expected before daybreak on Friday. Therefore, confidence in a widespread freezing occurring again is high tonight.
634 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Record warmth is possible Friday ahead of approaching low pressure.
934 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Record warmth is possible Friday ahead of approaching low pressure.
Temperatures this afternoon are up some 10-20 degrees over yesterday with the airmass modifying ahead of a dry cold front that is currently moving into northeast CA and far northwest NV. Pyramid Lake tends to see stronger winds with NW flow and winds are expected to kick up shortly and continue well into the evening before decreasing overnight as the cold front progresses farther south.
803 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Have updated the forecast to add some freezing drizzle into our eastern zones based on reports, observations, and traffic cameras. But the -10 to -12 C tops in our east vs the -14C tops in our west may be just enough to lead to a lack of ice crystals and resulting freezing drizzle. The mid to upper trough axis is roughly over the KS/MO state line currently and moving east. Think as we move from slight ascent to slight descent as the trough axis moves through we'll see precipitation start to wind down. Below normal temperatures continue tomorrow, although some late-February sunshine should help highs climb to near freezing and eliminate the thin layer of snow cover even as cold- air advection persists.
The base of the mid level/upper level trough was swinging westward across western Kansas late this morning and early afternoon. The subsident influence of the backside of the trough will dominate the area going into Tonight as well as a weakening surface wind field. Friday will bring the return of widespread above freezing high temperatures to southwest and central Kansas. And this seems well supported by the raw models/mos and even bias corrected forecast grids, or the NBM10th/5th percentiles to see lows colder than freezing. Friday night should likely see temperatures warmer than the single digits areawide.
W to NW winds will gradually return to the E tonight as a cold front advances into the region. With dewpoints holding steady in the upper teens and low 20s overnight, patchy freezing fog may develop across portions of the Permian Basin and eastern Lea County. High temperatures on Friday will get back above freezing. Temperatures once again become chilly overnight and much of the area is expected to fall below freezing.
The cold front continues to wobble acrs southern portions of the area this aftn, and has slide back southeast of LCH but still north of LFT/ARA.
In addition, easterly upslope will bring a threat for LIFR ceilings and perhaps fog and freezing fog later tonight mainly along and on the Caprock escarpment. West Texas Mesonet as of 1:30 PM shows temperatures in the low 40s in the central South Plains, with mid-20s in the eastern Rolling Plains.
654 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 High pressure ridge extending overhead this afternoon is keeping winds light. Widespread cloud cover should keep temperatures warmer than last night, but it will still be cold with below zero temperatures expected across the interior west. Cloud cover should scatter on Friday as surface ridging moves overhead.
720 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday with a dry cold front crossing the area Friday afternoon.
308 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Ensembles and operational model runs indicate a general ridging pattern for the next several days with a warming trend into the weekend and early work week.
205 PM PST Thu Feb 24 2022 Cool and dry through Friday with widespread freezing low temperatures in the early morning hours. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend. For example, the low of 26 deg F at Sacramento International Airport was the coldest reading in exactly four years February 24, 2018 when the thermometer plummeted to 25 deg F.
High pressure centered over the international border will keep light winds and clear skies over northern Minnesota tonight and allow temperatures to free-fall once again.
SRN terminals will see all liquid as temps remain above freezing. Today Through Friday Night Ongoing winter storm is finally winding to a close today with a lingering band of freezing rain moving from west to east across the state. Frigid Canadian high pressure begins to nose in from the north tonight with temps plummeting to the upper single digits to teens over the northwest and 20s/30s elsewhere. Friday will see additional warming with highs above freezing for most areas outside the Ozarks and Ouachitas.
Below average temperatures will persist through the week with sub-freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. Despite the cold start temperatures are running 2-5 degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday afternoon.
Webcams and Doppler radar indicated areas of drizzle occurring in the higher terrain of the Laurel Highlands. Precip should begin as sleet/freezing rain south of I80 and snow to the north. Sleet/freezing rain transition zone initially sets up along the PA Turnpike and west of I99 before creeping northward to I80 into the predawn hours. The lower trend has been a clear signal in the NBM 4. 50" over the ridges and summits in the Laurel Highlands/southwest Alleghenies with a glaze to two tenths expected elsewhere. Temps on Friday should get above freezing at least briefly before trending colder to end the day.
Temperatures will drop northwest to southeast as the front moves through the region with lows in the low to mid 30s across northwest Alabama on Friday morning. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest with any lingering showers near the I-59 corridor ending early Friday.
Lows back down into the single digits and low teens for the high country and near freezing even at the lowest elevations of Yavapai County.
Light snowfall this morning has now shifted out of the region, with only a few locations expected to hold on to any lingering snow showers through this evening (mainly along the Divide and in the higher terrain). As such, the next few days will be clear and dry under developing high pressure, giving way to very cold mornings but with moderating daytime high temperatures.
With loss of ice crystals aloft for a majority of the region, the mixed precipitation is transitioning back to freezing drizzle that will linger through the evening hours before coming to an end. Consensus of ensemble model data is that the upper level pattern will transition from northwest flow to a building ridge over the central CONUS by Thursday. As we head toward the first weekend of March, it appears that the synoptic pattern becomes loaded again with a large trough of low pressure anchored across the western CONUS and deep southwest flow established across the Midwest.
Low clouds persist over the area north of a strong warm front (strong in the sense of temperature gradient). The front may lift further northwest into northwest AL and southern middle TN late this afternoon and early this evening as a surface wave of low pressure develops in southern MS and tracks north- northeast along the front. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest with any lingering showers near the I-59 corridor ending early Friday.
Zooming out to a country-wide view, water vapor imagery shows rather broad troughing in place over the west-central CONUS, mid-level heights still decreasing over the central part of the country signifying the cold airmass that is entrenched over the region.
431 PM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 A deep trough continues to pivot east through the central US, as evident in water vapor imagery. Further upstream, another trough axis extends from eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan back into western Idaho.
Temperatures have finally warmed above freezing along and east of the Mississippi River. To the west, the 32F isotherm remains anchored along Crowley's Ridge. Any precipitation will likely fall as freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Additionally, freezing fog will be possible in the short term.
/issued 237 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Strong high pressure centered over the Northern Plains will flow south and spread over the area tonight. Another surge of high pressure/cold front will arrive this evening and will bring a reinforcing push of cold air into the region tonight. Overnight low temps from the mid to upper 30s across the Northern Ranchlands to the lower to mid 40s for the Lower Valley, only slightly warmer by day, will be the rule. Along with the low overcast skies, some fog will persist.
333 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Freezing rain continues this afternoon, especially across areas of southeast MO and southern IL, where temps continue to hover between 30 and 32 degrees. Freezing rain and perhaps some sleet will be coming to an end from west to east in those areas by around that time. Friday and Friday night look dry and cold as Canadian high pressure sink south into the Plains. High temps will only reach the 30s, withs lows in the lower/mid 20s.
616 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 The Winter Storm Warning has been allowed to expire and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued in its place to account for some more light additional freezing rain across the advised area.
704 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Upper level ridging centered over FL will sprawl from the Gulf to the Atlantic during the next 24 hours. with southern locations on the low side. High pressure in control with winds AOB 10KT and stable air with limited moisture. Relaxed high pressure across the waters will keep winds at or below 10 knots into the weekend. A frontal boundary slips down the state late Sun with high pressure behind it.
Low pressure centered over southern Missouri will gradually move east through the period. Precip on the northern end of this low and wrap around will affect the area through the mid evening. Some freezing drizzle was reported across the far southern and eastern portions of the CWA. This should turn to snow as cooler air moves into the area. This low and the snow will drive the weather through the next few hours. This was likely due to less ice aloft and just slightly warmer temperature profiles that kept ice from forming.
Isolated freezing drizzle may linger for a few hours behind this activity, but given the lack of travel impacts, do not expect to extend the advisory any longer, but a SPS for patchy black ice might be needed later tonight. Freezing rain continues this afternoon, especially across areas of southeast MO and southern IL, where temps continue to hover between 30 and 32 degrees. Freezing rain and perhaps some sleet will be coming to an end from west to east in those areas by around that time. Friday and Friday night look dry and cold as Canadian high pressure sink south into the Plains. High temps will only reach the 30s, withs lows in the lower/mid 20s.
The low clouds and fog are expected to dissipate by late morning. In addition, we are starting to see warmer temps in the southwest thanks in part to the downsloping winds as areas are finally getting into the 40s.
210 PM PST Thu Feb 24 2022 Freezing temperatures likely in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend. A ridge just off the West Coast is keeping the area dry, yet, it is also allowing the steering current to continue pushing cold northerly air into the region. With the cold air-mass still in place over the West, will see another cold night with widespread freezing temperatures expected before daybreak on Friday. Therefore, confidence in a widespread freezing occurring again is high tonight.
Next upper trough will drop in from the north on Friday. Light easterly winds over snow pack will keep temperatures from warming much above freezing along the northern I-25 corridor across El Paso and Pueblo counties so have kept temperatures on the cool side of guidance for those areas. Frontal boundary becomes reinforced Friday afternoon as upper trough shifts southward into the region.
Freezing rain continues this afternoon, especially across areas of southeast MO and southern IL, where temps continue to hover between 30 and 32 degrees. Freezing rain and perhaps some sleet will be coming to an end from west to east in those areas by around that time. Friday and Friday night look dry and cold as Canadian high pressure sink south into the Plains. High temps will only reach the 30s, withs lows in the lower/mid 20s.
229 PM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 We are already seeing temperatures fairly quickly rebound, with foothill locations already in the upper teens, especially Sheridan who's at 19 degrees as of 2 PM! These rapidly rising temperatures will only continue through the weekend as downslope warming dominates the low-level flow and conditions.
1128 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Cold front will continue to progress southeastward, accompanied by a narrow band of showers and a wind shift to the northwest.
1241 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Freezing rain, wintry mix, and rain continue early this morning.
The Flood Watch continues until 7 AM this morning, with the area of most interest being the Cumberland basin where the highest rainfall totals have been over the past several days. Precip will end from NW to SE, with drier conditions expected by this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the plains.
For our northern sites, CLL/UTS, -FZRA is possible if DZ/-RA occurs overnight due to SFC temperatures at or just below freezing.
1130 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Ensembles and operational model runs indicate a general ridging pattern for the next several days with a warming trend into the weekend and early work week.
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Have updated the forecast to add some freezing drizzle into our eastern zones based on reports, observations, and traffic cameras. But the -10 to -12 C tops in our east vs the -14C tops in our west may be just enough to lead to a lack of ice crystals and resulting freezing drizzle. The mid to upper trough axis is roughly over the KS/MO state line currently and moving east. Think as we move from slight ascent to slight descent as the trough axis moves through we'll see precipitation start to wind down. Below normal temperatures continue tomorrow, although some late-February sunshine should help highs climb to near freezing and eliminate the thin layer of snow cover even as cold- air advection persists.
Temperatures will still be cool today with highs only reaching the lower 30s.
318 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 High pressure with strong subsidence remains in place over the region for the next few days, resulting in continued dry weather and well above normal temperatures.
1244 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Record warmth is possible Friday ahead of approaching low pressure.
TODAY: A quiet day is expected as high pressure builds back into the region after being displaced by yesterday's snow system. Although winds will gradually increase overnight, wind chills stay warmer than advisory criteria so no headlines are expected.
(Today and tonight) The surface pressure ridge will pass slowly east of Oklahoma today with relatively light winds. High temperatures today will reach freezing in areas that had the most sleet accumulation with highs in the upper 30s in other areas.
1002 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 High pressure over the Atlantic, with its ridge axis draped across the Florida peninsula, has led to another quiet evening across the forecast area. Light S/SE winds overnight, with morning lows in the lower 60s. High pressure continuing over the local waters.
241 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Southwesterly flow aloft will persist overhead today as upper level troughing over the western CONUS slides slowly eastward. At the surface, the main story through the morning hours will be low stratus and areas of freezing fog mainly along and west of the edge of the Caprock Escarpment. Low clouds and any remaining freezing fog are expected to clear by late morning, if not a bit earlier. However, surface winds are expected to retain a notable easterly component through much of the day with high pressure still lingering over Oklahoma. Further west, a stronger southerly component to the winds will help boost temperatures a bit higher, though still remaining in the low 40s. Winds will be lighter tonight as high pressure shifts away with most areas seeing lows in the teens again.
High pressure will shift east and a frontal system will arrive over the weekend.
A northeast-southwest oriented long wave trough persists across the northern and western CONUS early this morning. The strongest upper level winds are to the east of the upper trough axis so we will see the trough gradually filling and propagating off to the east during the next few days.
The Four State Region remains on track to cool to lows ranging from the low 20s northwest, to near 30 in Shreveport, to the mid to upper 30s across southeastern north central Louisiana.
Widespread cloud cover should keep temperatures warmer than last night, but it will still be cold with below zero temperatures expected across the interior west. Cloud cover should scatter on Friday as surface ridging moves overhead.
1158 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 High pressure ridge extending overhead this afternoon is keeping winds light. Widespread cloud cover should keep temperatures warmer than last night, but it will still be cold with below zero temperatures expected across the interior west. Cloud cover should scatter on Friday as surface ridging moves overhead.
A cold front will approach from the northwest after midnight and move across the area through the morning.
Upper level troughing has shifted east, moving the remainder of the snow east out of the state. Behind this system, high pressure is anticipated to build into the region through the weekend. Clearing skies and light winds out of the north will allow temps to dip into single digits for areas north of I-70; areas to the south of I-70 can expect temps in the lower teens. By this afternoon, temps will brush the freezing threshold with highs in the lower 30s.
There could be a flurry tonight over parts of the lower elevations but no accumulation is expected there. RMS We are already seeing temperatures fairly quickly rebound, with foothill locations already in the upper teens, especially Sheridan who's at 19 degrees as of 2 PM! These rapidly rising temperatures will only continue through the weekend as downslope warming dominates the low-level flow and conditions.
Meanwhile, temperatures today will be quite chilly, with afternoon highs generally reaching the low to mid 30s, which is around 15 degrees below seasonal averages for late February.
Light fog looks a good possibility as well as a risk for sharper visibility reductions that could lead to freezing fog, though that is still less certain. RMcQueen We have updated for more widespread low clouds and areas of fog and freezing fog, especially on the Caprock as the cold easterly surge has spread back west into the area this evening. Keep in mind that a Freezing Fog Advisory is a possibility overnight into Friday morning. In addition, easterly upslope will bring a threat for LIFR ceilings and perhaps fog and freezing fog later tonight mainly along and on the Caprock escarpment. West Texas Mesonet as of 1:30 PM shows temperatures in the low 40s in the central South Plains, with mid-20s in the eastern Rolling Plains.
228 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Cold front has now pushed east of the mid state.
With dewpoints holding steady in the upper teens and low 20s overnight, patchy freezing fog may develop across portions of the Permian Basin and eastern Lea County. High temperatures on Friday will get back above freezing. Temperatures once again become chilly overnight and much of the area is expected to fall below freezing.