Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Plenty of sunshine can be seen across the golden state once again today with slightly cooler temperatures as compared to 24 hours ago. Today will be the coolest day this week with temperatures trending warmer this week. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer with low 90s to around 100 in the Valley and low 70s to upper 80s over the mountains. Monday will see a chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the High Sierra extending northward through the day into the evening near Lassen Park.
Temperatures ahead of the front Monday should be in the mid 90s to near 100 again, with slightly cooler temperatures north of the front along I-70. Upper level ridging will develop over the western United States and persist into the weekend. Western Kansas will be on the eastern extremity of the ridge, with only very weak lee troughing and south winds. Light southerly winds will persist through early Monday as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored from extreme southeast Colorado into northwest Kansas.
25 (This evening through Monday) Plenty of sunshine today saw temperatures climb into the low 90s and with elevated dew points this produced a heat index in the mid to upper 90s across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. The area of disturbed weather is projected to make a slow approach to the Texas coast with a weak vort max lifting into the Louisiana coastal waters at the same time as an upper lvl trof is expected to swing down into north Texas tomorrow afternoon. This trof is expected to push a cool front into north Texas.
355 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Key Messages: 1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain, mountain valleys, and the I-25 corridor through early to mid evening. From this point forward, now expect the highest coverage to be along and south of Highway 50 over the higher terrain, mountain valleys, and I-25 corridor.
1127 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Showers and storms had ended over the higher terrain, however some lingering activity was over nern CO. 75" of an inch and storm motions moving at a decent clip so flash flood threat is on the low side. Expect a weak cold front to sag southward over the plains late tonight and early Monday morning from the associated northern plains trof. Main impacts will be a wind shift to the northeast and slightly cooler temperatures for Monday. High pressure ridge aloft will be building across the Great Basin and western Colorado on Monday for a mainly dry day. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and mostly dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 90 71 90 / 10 20 60 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 88 69 90 / 20 20 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 88 67 89 / 20 20 80 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 86 66 86 / 30 10 80 40 10.
Discussion: High pressure remains largely in control but does begin to shift further east today ahead of an incoming upper level trough. Chances of rain begin to increase after midnight across the Cumberland Plateau ahead of an incoming cold front.
After an area of morning stratus cleared out, we have seen clear skies across the forecast area, Temperatures have soared into the 90s and even the low 100s in our far southwest where air is drier and they are seeing a more westerly wind component. High temperatures should end up roughly 10 degrees cooler than today.
Temperatures ahead of the front Monday should be in the mid 90s to near 100 again, with slightly cooler temperatures north of the front along I-70. Upper level ridging will develop over the western United States and persist into the weekend. Western Kansas will be on the eastern extremity of the ridge, with only very weak lee troughing and south winds.
A ridge of high pressure will be building in, with increasing temperatures through the end of the week. With the strength of the ridge, and current forecasted temperatures, record highs will be possible in a number of locations.
214 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Very warm and humid conditions are on tap today, before the arrival of a cold front this evening. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well defined trough across the eastern Dakotas, with associated upper low just south of Lake Winnipeg. This trough will be near the Mississippi River by early evening, with a 50+ knot jet at 500 mb flowing around the base of the trough. Confidence in the timing is not the highest, but the risk of damaging winds has increased, and the latest SPC Day1 outlook has introduced an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across areas north of a Havana-Danville line, favoring the stronger wind potential.
248 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 An upper low is spinning to the south of Lake Winnipeg and continuing off to the east early this morning. An area of moisture rotating around the upper low is sliding high clouds southeast across the area, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy across much of the area. One other minor cloud item is the area of clouds in central ND, along/behind the secondary cold front and tracking to the east-southeast.
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A weak cold front will push south through the area during the early morning hours this morning. Slightly cooler behind it will result in highs today in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. Upper level ridging will build over the Great Basin and Central Rockies today. The models maintain a ridge of high pressure aloft centered over the Great Basin region this week. This will result in mainly thunderstorm coverage each afternoon/early evening over the higher terrain.
The highest moisture and CAPE is expected to be across northern IL and and possibly into southeast Wisconsin by early afternoon. A cold front will then move through tonight, with high pressure building in behind the front and bringing a return of mostly clear skies.
1059 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Latest sfc analysis this aftn shows a cold front continuing to push south/east of our area, with modest pressure rises in its wake. CAA has kept temperatures largely below average today, with 1 PM MDT temps generally in the low to mid 70s across nern WY and wrn SD, increasing to the mid 80s toward s cntrl SD. Satellite imagery clearly depicts a compact upper low near the ND/SK/MB border, supporting a broad area of showers and storms across that region. Tonight into early tomorrow morning, 700 mb moisture conv and fgen increase along a W-E oriented band from approximately the Pine Ridge to the Sandhills.
Breezy northwest winds will be the main story today, as heights continue to rise following yesterday's cold front. The main H5 upper low is spinning just north of the International Border this morning, and will move across the Lake of the Woods area this afternoon. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s with lows tonight falling into the lower 50s.
225 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Summer-like weather along with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through early this week as upper level ridging remains over the area.
1157 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 (Tonight) High pressure remains anchored over the southeastern CONUS, with upper ridging over the east coast. Winds will become calm over the next couple of hours, though with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s, expect lows to only fall into the lower 70s by daybreak.
246 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Currently an upper level low swirls in southern MB, moving eastward. The cold front that dropped temperatures to pleasantly below normal today currently drapes across MN and IA. Closer to home, high pressure is moving into the region. Conditions will be sunny and dry as a ridge builds up in the west and brings northwesterly flow over the region. Model guidance indicates the ridge stays over the western US and brings dry and warm to hot conditions for our area. Models seem to be in fairly good agreement that the ridge maintains or builds strength through the weekend, heralding a hot and dry stretch of weather.
345 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 High pressure will remain in the region, and will keep rainfall to a minimum this afternoon and evening.
The tropical moisture is associated with an inverted trough and a mid to upper-level near Cuba that is somewhat moving in tandem. The ingredients mentioned will lead to continual shower and thunderstorm development across the Lower Keys and surrounding waters.
Continued ridging at the surface and aloft over the region with relatively weak flow and ample moisture look to shape up another round of scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today. before resuming a more S/SE flow as the front weakens and ridging restrengthens into the weekend. Showers/storms will continue favoring the afternoon and evening hours across most of the area, with highs in the low/mid 90s. High pressure ridging remains over the coastal waters for the next few days before sagging south beyond mid-week as a front drops into the SE U.
-Slightly cooler weather will return by tomorrow. An associated trough axis extends southward through the Upper Midwest, and a surface boundary is evident near the KS/NE stateline. A mid-level ridge is expected to expand over the Four Corners region into midweek. Eastern Kansas will be on the eastern fringes of that ridge, keeping conditions warm.
Large scale upper pattern defined by western Atlantic upper ridge extending west into the SEUS and active westerlies over the northern CONUS.
144 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Heights will be building through the short-term as a ridge of high pressure build across the western US.
1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (This evening through Monday) Weak mid-level trough lingers over the south-central plains into Monday, and with diurnal heating and moderate elevated instability, there is a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon. Another humid day is expected tomorrow with dewpoint temperatures in the low/mid 70s.
Maximum heat index values along the lower Missouri Valley and the KC Metro will reach 100 F. Resolved by regional radar and surface observations, the cold front has continued to sink south and southeast this morning toward NE KS and NW MO. With daytime heating, temperatures ahead of the front will easily push the lower 90s. These temps paired with low to mid 70s dew points will result in max heat index values in the lower 100s, though below advisory criteria, across portions of the lower Missouri River valley and KC Metro this afternoon. Overall, most convective allowing models are in relative agreement of initiation by mid to late afternoon along the lower Missouri River valley, generally the I-70 corridor region.
- Cooler and less humid the rest of the week along with dry conditions. The upper level boundary near 850 mb is lagging to the northwest with a ribbon of > 3000 J/kg MUCAPES tied more with this boundary than cold front at the surface. Storm chances should start to align more west to east in the Highway 30 to Interstate 80 corridor areas this morning then gradually descend south into the afternoon. High pressure will dominate through the week with dew points leading to warm days and cool nights with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.
1123 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Key Messages: 1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain, mountain valleys, and the I-25 corridor through early to mid evening. From this point forward, now expect the highest coverage to be along and south of Highway 50 over the higher terrain, mountain valleys, and I-25 corridor.
300 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 High pressure extending across the Mid-Atlantic this morning will drift offshore today.
450 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Issued at 450 EDT MON AUG 29 2022 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure retreating to the east of Kentucky while low pressure and a cold front are approaching from the northwest. This high has been enough to keep skies mostly clear through the latter part of the night, but also allow for some limited valley fog - limited as another day of drying helped out. Otherwise, temperatures are running in the mid 60s for the sheltered valleys while ridges are in the low to mid 70s. They all depict ridging over Kentucky and points east starting to weaken today in the face of an approaching trough from the northwest.
401 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will hold over the region through today.
A developing upper trough over the northern Plains will move east and push a cold front across Wisconsin this afternoon. The precipitation will end overnight as the cold front moves through.
The upper level trof axis will move through the High Plains early this morning. From daybreak onward high pressure surface and aloft will build down over central and western Nebraska with quiet and dry weather through the first part of the workweek.
As an upper level low in southern Canada moves off to the east, so will the chance of showers. A upper level ridge will build in today with high pressure in the Four Corners, and remain the main pattern for the rest of the week. Temperatures today will be coolest of the week with the ridge just starting to build in. As mentioned in the short term, the ridging pattern will continue through the week. This will lead to a dry weather pattern and temperatures warming to the 90s by the end of the week with the aid of the thermal ridge moving in.
At least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop again later this afternoon and linger into the evening hours, with the most favored zone for occurrence likely within the Highway 412 to Interstate 40 corridor.
Cooler temperatures seeping into the valleys led to some locally dense fog in northeast Alabama with patchy fog elsewhere. Temperatures are well on their way up this morning as we approach 80 degrees by 9 AM and will peak in the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
A developing upper trough over the northern Plains will move east and push a cold front across Wisconsin this afternoon. The precipitation will end overnight as the cold front moves through. Clearing will occur Tuesday behind the upper trough axis and then we're looking at dry weather for the rest of the week.
A cold front will enter north Arkansas Tuedsday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper trough over the northern Plains. By tonight, the trough will extend through the Great Lakes. As this trough moves east Tuesday a large upper ridge will build over the Rockies. Expect humid conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This next cold front will enter north Arknasas Tuesday morning and move through the state during the day.
An upper low is spinning to the south of Lake Winnipeg and continuing off to the east early this morning. An area of moisture rotating around the upper low is sliding high clouds southeast across the area, leading to a partly to mostly cloudy across much of the area. One other minor cloud item is the area of clouds in central ND, along/behind the secondary cold front and tracking to the east-southeast.
Drier air will arrive during the late afternoon and early evening as a cold front moves through.
530 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Very warm and humid conditions are on tap today, before the arrival of a cold front this evening. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well defined trough across the eastern Dakotas, with associated upper low just south of Lake Winnipeg. This trough will be near the Mississippi River by early evening, with a 50+ knot jet at 500 mb flowing around the base of the trough. Confidence in the timing is not the highest, but the risk of damaging winds has increased, and the latest SPC Day1 outlook has introduced an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across areas north of a Havana-Danville line, favoring the stronger wind potential.
This high impact heat wave will be a result of a strong upper ridge building over the Great Basin.
Strong daytime heating and destabilization will support scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms, but a weak trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enhance coverage over northeast Louisiana into far southwest Mississippi. /EC/ An elongated trough will develop just north of the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday and slowly transition east through out the period.
312 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Hot and dry conditions return to the region this week with upper ridge build over the western states. Expect some breezy conditions over the eastern zones today with low pressure moving east and high pressure pressing into the state.
The upper level trof axis will move through the High Plains early this morning. From daybreak onward high pressure surface and aloft will build down over central and western Nebraska with quiet and dry weather through the first part of the workweek. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement in reestablishing a strong ridge over the western US, then building the ridge axis westward through the latter portion of the workweek.
As far as any potential hazards go with these storms, a strong stable layer and the high-based nature of these storms makes it unlikely that any strong wind gusts occur while the lack of updraft strength makes hail unlikely as well. By 3 PM this afternoon, much of the cloud cover is expected to have dissipated and highs will be being reach in the low-to-upper 80s as dry weather settles in.
431 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Currently an upper level low swirls in southern MB, moving eastward. The cold front that dropped temperatures to pleasantly below normal today currently drapes across MN and IA. Closer to home, high pressure is moving into the region. Conditions will be sunny and dry as a ridge builds up in the west and brings northwesterly flow over the region. Model guidance indicates the ridge stays over the western US and brings dry and warm to hot conditions for our area. Models seem to be in fairly good agreement that the ridge maintains or builds strength through the weekend, heralding a hot and dry stretch of weather.
A strong area of high pressure will bring hot and dry conditions throughout the week.
The increased cloud cover and rain should keep us a bit cooler for tonight.
Temperatures are ranging widely as the slow movement with the front is allowing for a slower push of cooler air into the region. 500/700mb ridge over the western portion of the country will shift slowly eastward into the midweek timeframe. High pressure behind the front will allow for a brief respite in temps. Ridge shifts east of the area by Tuesday, setting up a wind shift from east-northeast, to more southerly. Today, a range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s is expected.
A weak ridge with high pressure located over southern Nevada is providing west-northwesterly winds in the mid to upper portions of the atmosphere. Some moisture still lingers in the low-levels and will combine with afternoon instability to allow for isolated storms. The only change of note is that temperatures will gradually trend upwards as the ridge moves over southern Utah and geopotential heights increase.
524 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A weak cold front will push south through the area during the early morning hours this morning. Slightly cooler behind it will result in highs today in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. Upper level ridging will build over the Great Basin and Central Rockies today. The models maintain a ridge of high pressure aloft centered over the Great Basin region this week. This will result in mainly thunderstorm coverage each afternoon/early evening over the higher terrain.
Look for highs to be in the low 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the low 70s. Highs will once again be in the low 90s, with some mid to upper 80s in the northwest, where clouds and rain will begin a touch earlier and limit the heating of the day.
The first wave will target the southern CWA this morning, whereas the second wave will ride southeast into the area along a cold front this afternoon through tonight. An upper level trough is entering the Upper Midwest this morning and is expected to be in the Great Lakes region by tomorrow. The second round will be associated with a cold front passing southeast through the CWA. Louis sites as the cold front moves southeastward.
751 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Dry and warm weather will be interrupted by rain in advance of a Tuesday cold front. Dry and cooler weather will then persist into the holiday weekend. No changes were needed for the mrng update as East Coast ridging/Midwest troughing will maintain dry, warm, and more humid weather for today. Showers and thunderstorms may near the region in advance of that trough by late this afternoon; however, timing and coverage of this initial iso/sct convection remains dubious. The cold front will cross the area by Tuesday late afternoon/evening as rain exits the area.
Greatest convective coverage will again be focused across the interior of east central FL due to the low low S/SE flow, especially near to west of Orlando where boundary interactions are favored later in the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 90s with peak heat index values around 100-105 before storms and cloud cover increases across the region through mid to late afternoon. (Modified Previous Discussion) Atlantic ridge continues to dominate the local waters today, with generally favorable boating conditions expected outside of any storms.
Ridging will build across the region on Monday and looks to remain the dominant feature for most of the short-term forecast.
The first wave will target the southern CWA this morning, whereas the second wave will ride southeast into the area along a cold front this afternoon through tonight. An upper level trough is entering the Upper Midwest this morning and is expected to be in the Great Lakes region by tomorrow. As a southward-moving cold front reaches the region from the north during the afternoon and evening, a second round of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop and initially impact KUIN.
Large scale upper pattern defined by western Atlantic upper ridge extending west into the SEUS and active westerlies over the northern CONUS. Fairly strong wave in the northern plains will progress east and with upper ridge building quickly in the western CONUS and weakening height field over the eastern CONUS, wave and associated front should make decent southward progress thru Tuesday.
Some mid and high clouds associated with the closed low to the southwest of the Bay Area cover portions of the region early this morning, but overall skies remain clear.
637 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (Monday through Tuesday) An inverted upper-level trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will merge with an eastward moving trough across the mid- CONUS over the next couple of days. Scattered convection to possibly linger into the late evening hours before gradually dissipating near midnight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. As upper-trough across the midwest swings east across the ArkLaTex and merges with the gulf trough late tonight, could see a resurgence of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex by daybreak and continuing into the day on Tuesday.
The highest potential for strong/severe storms along with heavy rainfall will be before midnight. Additionally, temperatures today will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than normal. The boundary layer will dry out some, although the drier air will heat easier, so seasonably warm temperatures in the low-mid 90s are still expected.
-Slightly cooler weather will return by tomorrow. An associated trough axis extends southward through the Upper Midwest, and a surface boundary is evident near the KS/NE stateline. A mid-level ridge is expected to expand over the Four Corners region into midweek. Eastern Kansas will be on the eastern fringes of that ridge, keeping conditions warm. Storms are expected to form this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will be near Interstate 70 around 22Z.