Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHIFTS EASTWARD. UPR RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDWEEK AS EJECTING LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA POPS/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IT BECOMES "SANDWICHED" BETWEEN A MIGRATING /WEST/ CUT-OFF LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DEVIATE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.
WHILE WESTERN TROUGH RELOADS. WITH SOME DAYS IN THE PERIOD BEING WARMER/SOME COOLER THAN INIT.
738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.
1036 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 IN HURRY UP AND WAIT MODE AS UPPER LOW EVER SO SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U. CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF ANY RAIN THREAT BUT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND MORE AND MORE SHORT WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST.
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT THE BIG STORY WILL REMAIN THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. TODAY THRU SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY (L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.
1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BUT MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE AND FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SE CA SUN MORNING. COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK A BIT MORE W OF THE MTS ON SUN.
420 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLOW INLAND WARMING TREND AND A GRADUALLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INLAND WARMING AND A MARINE LAYER THAT IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW EAST NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS MORNING. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
715 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT.
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. BUT NOT THE EXTENT OF LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER EVE AND RISING HEIGHTS.
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 FIRE WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.
A CLEAR SKY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. A STRONG S/WV IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
Freezing surface temps at CNM, HOB and potentially INK and MAF through the morning hours will result in the possibility of -FZRA affecting these sites. /issued 255 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ Strong upper low over the Great Basin will wobble northeast the next few days. This low has brought cold rain to the region.
1026 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE UPPER OHIO REGION INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. POPS WILL THUS BE ON THE DECLINE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND RETURN THE TEMPERATURE BACK TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. RESIDUAL RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG. THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STARTS TO DIMINISH AND EDGE TO THE EAST. BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THAT BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. BUT FEEL THE HIGHLIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED BY 18Z. AND FEEL THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE E PLAINS MAY STICK AROUND ALL DAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO KICK OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
951 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL.
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 010. /ISSUED 503 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I44 CORRIDOR. TEMPS, THANKFULLY, HAVE MODERATED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20 MPH. STILL EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER NW OK THIS AFTERNOON.
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NAM WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WHILE GEM WAS A COMPLETE OUTLIER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
Temperatures early this morning will flirt with the freezing mark in northeast Missouri, but expect dry conditions.
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS VERY SLOW ERLY PUSH AS IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. ALLOWING RAINS AND COOLER AIR TO SETTLE IN IN ITS WAKE OVER THESE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES RETROGRADING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDING INTO FL AND THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SE AND A TROUGH UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. AS THE RIDGE CENTER DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE TROUGH WASHES OUT, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX, BUT CONTINUING BREEZY NE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
702 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY.
RAIN HAS EXPANDED NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND HELP PUSH THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
646 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AVIATION WE/LL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
A weakening cold front will sink slowly southward across Kentucky during the weekend, continuing to act as a focus for rain. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 40s, though southern Kentucky will probably not drop further than the lower 50s.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW CENTERS CIRCULATING AROUND EACH OTHER WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AND STRETCH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THEN THE LOW CENTER THAT SPURRED THE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO/ERN UT LAST EVENING WILL CIRCULATE BACK AROUND AND PASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE SUNDAY. THE AREA BUT THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DUAL CYCLONE CLOSED LOW DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
The upper level ridge will dampen a bit through the day, lowering heights slightly across the Tri-State region. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control with easterly flow continuing.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IN FACT SOME LOCATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. I DO HAVE A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF A KEOSAUQUA-IOWA TO BURLINGTON-IOWA LINE. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.
552 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL.
THIS HIGH CLEARED SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE SKY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
845 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THUS, WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY'S UPDATE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S. EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE HELENA VALLEY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY END BY LATE MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER MID TO UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. THE MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT.
Temperatures range from the lower 30s across southeast Kansas to the upper 30s over south central Missouri. We will stay above freezing so we will only have to deal with more cold rain today. There will still be a low potential of some light freezing rain but no impacts are expected this morning.
642 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY.
Freezing rain will continue at the Abilene terminal until the air temperature warms above the freezing mark around noon today. With temperatures this morning continuing around the freezing mark, across some of our northern counties, a wintry mix of precipitation remains possible. Beyond noon and for tonight, temperatures should remain above the freezing mark across all of West Central Texas.
The heaviest rain will remain across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas nearest the low level jet and consequent maximum in low level moisture transport. With this trend expected to continue, the freezing rain area to the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma is at its maximum extent. Western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties could see an additional tenth of an inch or so of ice accumulation before surface temperatures warm above freezing late this morning. The only change to the existing Freezing Rain Advisory will be to push back the expiration time to noon.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AROUND CRP KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA IN A NORTH SURFACE WIND OF 10-20 MPH. OTHER THAN THE RIVER CHANNELS AND VALLEYS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL AT ABOUT 35-40 KTS AS INDICATED BY THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE.
503 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I44 CORRIDOR. TEMPS, THANKFULLY, HAVE MODERATED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20 MPH. STILL EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER NW OK THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WITH PWAT VALUES STILL REMAINING VERY HIGH.
1046 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING AREA. VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN ECHOES ARE LONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF A CLOUD LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR KEY LARGO TO THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS OFF THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS FURTHER.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF NIGHTTIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE SUB-FREEZING WITH READINGS IN THE 26-30 DEG RANGE. GIVE THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE FROST AND FREEZING HEADLINES IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST BEFORE STALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH AN AREA OF Q VECTOR FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ON CROSS SECTIONS AND VERTICAL COLUMN NEVER BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG HORNS WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
GOING CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE (AND FOLLOWED ISC COLLABORATION). WILL END THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT 9 AM SATURDAY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXES SHIFT EWD TONIGHT, RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MORE OF THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY.
A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST SHORT WAVE COMING UP PUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW. EVEN ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEST WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT AS THIS FIST WAVE MOVES ON NORTH AND STARTS TO PULL BACK WEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AND SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW WITHIN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE.
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong cold front translating very slowly southeastward near the western borders of TN, northwest MS, and LA.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS EAST BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
925 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
THE CLOUD DECK WILL MITIGATE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH VALLEY WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FROST TOWARDS NORTH SECTORS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT THUS THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING. THE STATIONARY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE DISTRICT WILL FINALLY START MOVING EAST SUNDAY DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING UNDERNEATH THE CLOSE LOW THROUGH SCAL.
359 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER UTAH AS ITS STRETCHED NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE THE PLAINS MAY START TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING BACK IN WITH THE SNOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXTEND FM WYOMING INTO UTAH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SRN PORTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
531 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING BUT LITTLE/NO ADDITIONAL ICING IS EXPECTED. /ISSUED 247 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION RAIN AFTER PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET. LATER IN THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS FREEZING RAIN.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Pacific moisture will continue to interact with a slow moving cold front today. Temperatures from near 60 to the lower 60s ahead of the cold front will fall quickly into the 40s behind the front.
COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
623 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL.