Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak upper level ridging this morning starts the day off with partly cloudy skies as central Wyoming's overnight rain showers exit to the east.
These showers will gradually lift further north later on this morning and into the afternoon as a warm front stalls south of MI. Steadier rain will focus north of M-20, but additional pockets of light rain will be possible elsewhere as warm advection lift persists north of the warm front. Temperatures will vary greatly geographically today as the warm front approaches the southern state line. 25" with the highest amounts falling north of I-96.
1011 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Quiet weather continues as high pressure centered over NY/PA continues to exert influence over the OH Valley. KY Mesonet shows current temperatures in the low to mid 70s as of 10am EDT with satellite revealing mostly clear skies across southern Indiana an central KY. Some weak low-level convergence associated with an inverted trough will help enhance the cu field, mainly east of I-65. Fcst soundings show very little instability due to warmer air/capping in the mid-levels. Southerly low-level flow increases tonight ahead of a stronger wave of low pressure.
700 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region today and Monday.
1034 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
1008 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
Expect subsidence to prevail over the CWA during the period, as an upper trough moves eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico today, and as an upper ridge builds over the region from the west Monday.
529 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
Looking at water vapor satellite imagery, an upper level trough is moving east and southeast into the northwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday the aforementioned trough will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the subtropical ridge axis will be gradually pivoting northward.
Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity today, with warmer weather expected during the coming week.
247 AM PDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Cooler and breezy conditions will continue today with choppy waters on area lakes. A few thunderstorms are possible, especially this afternoon when we begin to see a few breaks in the higher level cloud cover, allowing for warming and increasing instability. Strong ridge wind gusts to 70 mph will continue with some of this momentum mixing down later this morning as temperatures rise and gradients tighten.
(Rest of Today) Another beautiful start to the morning with only slightly higher dewpoints, in the 50s/lower 60s, light ESE winds and temps at this hour (14Z) in the lower 70s. Look for daytime highs to reach the low/mid 80s again today.
At the upper levels, a low amplitude ridge axis was located near the Montana/North Dakota border. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs ranging from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Ridging will continue to flatten near the Montana border as another wave comes through.
Instability will quickly increase behind it across the forecast area as the heating of the day combines with some cooler air aloft to generate convective showers. The low pressure off the coast producing this wet pattern will weaken Monday and be absorbed into another low approaching the coast. These will end Monday evening as a temporary ridge of high pressure begins build over the region as the next low pressure system deepens off the coast.
An upper-level trough will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as gusty winds to northern Nevada today with relatively mild temperatures continuing. Drier and considerably warmer conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure builds over the region. A trough moving through along with accompanying mid and upper- level moisture as well as favorable dynamics aloft will promote shower and thunderstorm development across much of northern Nevada today. Warmer and drier conditions settle into the area beginning Monday as a ridge of high pressure begins to evolve across the western US by midweek.
With a ridge still over Texas, rain-free weather is still expected through the Short Term period. Skies will be clear again today allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 100s out west and upper 90s in the RGV. However, there is a trough moving over the Gulf Waters tightening our pressure gradient causing our southeast winds to increase today and tomorrow with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Tonight will be slightly warmer by a few degrees due to the cloud cover overnight with most of the CWA in the mid 70s.
Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal, with highs expected to be in the low 90s for most areas.
Upper trough to move into the W Atlantic with weak ridging aloft from the S Plains Tue through the week with deeper moisture returning. Pressure gradient to relax as weak high pressure builds back into the region today while disorganized seas subside as well. Weak high pressure to hold over the region through the week with a more typical summertime pattern sets up.
Thinking right now is that the thunderstorms will miss the Panhandles to the northeast as the short wave trough is pretty far northeast. Another upper level short wave trough moves from southeast into northwest Oklahoma Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Expect high temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than the NBM, mainly across the Permian Basin and Lea County, due to recent rainfall.
With a nearly cut off upper low over the area today through Monday, it will serve to enhance pops with a cold pool aloft to help generate instability.
502 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak ridging aloft prevailed over the High Plains overnight.
1037 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region today and Monday.
651 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
315 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak ridging aloft prevailed over the High Plains overnight.
This has kept the ridge shunted to the south, and is preventing the ridge from building into the area from the Atlantic. With the ridge axis well to our south, generally boundary layer flow is from the southwest to west. Radar at Key West is finding only a isolated showers along a couple of broken cloud lines, one to the west of the lower Keys and another in the Florida Straits. In 1816, five ships were lost near the Keys due to tropical cyclones (on the 5th-8th).
The low clouds are expected to clear most areas by midday with temperatures remaining about average today.
Low pressure taking shape over the high Plains will sharpen a warm front to our north, causing recent light east flow to veer south, increasing 10-15 mph this afternoon. South flow and increasing dewpoints and cloud cover will lead to a warmer night and lows in the mid 60s.
647 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a continuation of the low amplitude pattern across the CONUS. The main features of note were an elongated area of low pressure which extended from western Ontario into southern Quebec. Low amplitude ridging was present from central Colorado north into central Montana. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude west northwesterly flow extended from the high plains, east into Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.
514 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak upper level ridging this morning starts the day off with partly cloudy skies as central Wyoming's overnight rain showers exit to the east.
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 As of 08Z, elevated warm front lifting north toward I-90 is failing to sustain even spotty sprinkles which attempted to develop earlier tonight. As it continues to track east this afternoon, models continue to suggest moisture and instability building along and south of the low level warm front. Thus, despite the proximity of the low level boundary, think severe threat is isolated at best, as depicted by the SPC Marginal Risk.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Monday along with an increase in humidity levels as surface ridging influences shift further eastward and southerly low level atmospheric flow becomes increasingly established as our area becomes well established in warm sector of a developing synoptic central and eastern contiguous U. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, and although it continues to look like overall atmospheric low level shear will be on the low side, a few of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with strong to damaging winds and large hail possible.
649 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure is in control of the forecast area today and Monday keeping the region dry with near normal temperatures.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler today, with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s over eastern areas to the middle 70s over central areas.
An upper trough will be sliding to our east while upper ridging will be to our west. Eventually, the upper ridge to our west will extend further across our region and help keep these passing disturbances to our north, and the region dry. Temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 90s initially before reaching the mid to some upper 90s before this front comes through later in the week.
Upper low currently rotating over southern Canada will drop towards Lake of the Woods today, which will help push a cold front down into the CWA. Temps will be a few degrees cooler today thanks to the frontal passage as well as clouds coming in across the south. Quiet conditions as northwesterly flow and weak high pressure set in again. Temps tonight into Monday will be on the cooler side of normal for early June, in the 40s for lows and 60s for highs.
Warmer temperatures are expected to start the week as dry conditions continue through Monday.
/Issued 301 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022/ Dry and benign regime today with weak ridging and possible aided subsidence in the western wake of the tropical low as it tracks off the Carolina coast.
Low pressure is located along the southern boundary across southeast WY. The more favorable conditions for any stronger storms should develop from the Black Hills area to southern SD during the afternoon and early evening, where more sun and warmer temps should lead to MUCAPE values of 500 to over 1000 j/kg. Highs today will mostly be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, a bit cooler across far northwest SD where clouds linger through much of the day. Highs will likely be a bit cooler than today, with 60s and lower 70s expected.
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 (Today and tonight) While the past few days have seen some helpful rainfall across much of the West Central Texas area, the pattern looks to change today as upper level ridging begins to set up in earnest, keeping the area dry. The 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to shift east into western portions of our area. Farther off to the east, temperatures will be a bit cooler in the 98- 101 degree range. Most models, however, are slightly cooler in this area with highs not nearing the ConvT and not creating any convection. With continued breezy conditions out of the south tonight, lows will be quite mild in the low to mid 70s areawide.
High pressure continues to linger over the western United States. Throughout this week, daily high temperatures are expected to be above normal due to a high pressure system aloft.
The environment along the Highway 81 corridor should remain favorable for storm maintenance.
A warm front is beginning to develop just north of the central IL forecast area this morning, lifting northward, as low pressure developing in the central Plains heads for the upper Great Lakes. Low pressure taking shape over the high Plains will sharpen a warm front to our north, causing recent light east flow to veer south, increasing 10-15 mph this afternoon. South flow and increasing dewpoints and cloud cover will lead to a warmer night and lows in the mid 60s.
Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected in the western part of the area where cloud cover will be more extensive from the convective system, while eastern areas are likely to reach the mid 80s. Another round of showers and storms is possible along a cold front that will be entering our forecast area from the north in the late afternoon and early evening. Kimble The cold front pushes south through our area Monday night with any lingering convection likely dying off in the evening.
1132 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak upper level ridging this morning starts the day off with partly cloudy skies as central Wyoming's overnight rain showers exit to the east.
High pressure will remain firmly in control through the TAF period. Expect subsidence to prevail over the CWA during the period, as an upper trough moves eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico today, and as an upper ridge builds over the region from the west Monday.
1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 (Today and tonight) While the past few days have seen some helpful rainfall across much of the West Central Texas area, the pattern looks to change today as upper level ridging begins to set up in earnest, keeping the area dry. The 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to shift east into western portions of our area. Farther off to the east, temperatures will be a bit cooler in the 98- 101 degree range. Most models, however, are slightly cooler in this area with highs not nearing the ConvT and not creating any convection. With continued breezy conditions out of the south tonight, lows will be quite mild in the low to mid 70s areawide.
Lows will range from the low 60s east to the upper 60s south and west. Expect partly cloudy skies with highs ranging from the mid 80s east to the low 90s west and central.
Still expecting the initiation on the higher elevations of the Tetons and Absarokas early afternoon, then drifting east in the afternoon.
238 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region through Monday.
1108 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak ridging aloft prevailed over the High Plains overnight.
Lows generally in the lower 70s. Highs Monday afternoon will reach the lower 90s inland to upper 80s closer to the east coast.
The more definite scenario is widespread convection will develop across the Central Plains in close proximity of a cold front this afternoon. Opted to increase the probability of showers/storms significantly higher than NBM given the high confidence in the scenario--including expansion to the southwest to include the OKC metro with probabilities of showers/storms.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across Deep South Texas into the new work week, keeping above normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Low pressure across the Plains and high pressure across the Gulf will maintain breezy southeasterly winds through Monday night.
Highs on Monday will again be in the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast.
Overall, the best focus will be north of Interstate-70 and over the higher terrain overnight. Conditions will improve Monday night from west to east across the forecast area with clearing and cooler temperatures expected overnight.
The failure mode for not seeing widespread activity might be if the MCV and its associated precip shield slides farther to our southeast and just clips the local area, while also blocking moisture from the warm sector ahead of the approaching front. Timing of TSRA late morning through the afternoon Monday Reinforcing push of air off the lake has kept directions northeasterly at ORD and MDW and light winds near the lake breeze/warm front boundary from RFD to DPA to GYY at this hour. There is still a low chance the warm front can make a northward push that turns winds SSW and will continue to monitor its location.
Temps most areas should remain fairly steady through late afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, except for cooler 50s/60s readings near the Great Lakes shores. As the low continues lifting towards northern Ontario Monday afternoon and evening, expect the rain showers to end from west to east. For nearly the entirety of this fcst period, we are expected to remain under the influence of an upper level low centered over far northern Ontario.
High pressure will build in overnight and remain firmly in place through Monday night. Strong subsidence with this high pressure will put an end to chances for precipitation.
Weak high pressure ridging has developed over much of north and east Georgia in the wake of Alex. Subsidence of dry air aloft is ongoing underneath the ridge, which is keeping conditions mostly dry and benign across north Georgia. Lingering high pressure ridging across northeast Georgia will serve to inhibit convective development in this area.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through this evening as subtle mid-level troughing continues to move across the area.
1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a continuation of the low amplitude pattern across the CONUS. The main features of note were an elongated area of low pressure which extended from western Ontario into southern Quebec. Low amplitude ridging was present from central Colorado north into central Montana. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude west northwesterly flow extended from the high plains, east into Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.
Low pressure centered over eastern Wyoming. At the upper levels, mild upper ridging sits over the lee side of the rockies, with near zonal flow over the forecast area. The higher chances for severe storms stretching from northeastern Wyoming through the Black Hills and into southwestern and south central SD, where CAPE values climb into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, and much better shear Monday afternoon (60-70 kts).
High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 80s. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move into far eastern Colorado from the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge around 3 PM MDT, moving into extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas by 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT) with areal coverage increasing from Trenton and McCook to Goodland and Colby through 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT). Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the lower 50s to around 60. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the lower 50s to around 60.
High pressure will gradually build across the area through the week. Longwave trough will stay positioned across the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska for much of the week. This will allow large ridge to flex its muscles; expanding from the southern High Plains westward into the Desert Southwest.
1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 (Rest of Today) Another beautiful start to the morning with only slightly higher dewpoints, in the 50s/lower 60s, light ESE winds and temps at this hour (14Z) in the lower 70s. Look for daytime highs to reach the low/mid 80s again today.
(This afternoon through Monday night) High pressure is beginning to exert its influence over West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Moderate westerly winds on the northern periphery of the high are helping to send the dryline well into the Permian Basin this afternoon. Models are showing a weak cold front entering the northern Permian Basin tomorrow afternoon.
236 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s across the forecast area today under a broken sky. The MCV will exit the region Monday evening, and a surface cold front will push through the region in the wake of the complex.
1243 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure remains in control of the forecast area into Monday.
210 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The upper level low continues to remain nearly stationary across Ontario, resulting in weak upper level ridging to zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow across the Intermountain West.
Regardless though, there is sufficient moisture in the lowest 200mb or so to possibly squeeze out a shower someplace over the islands. Tomorrow, a moisture channel stretching from the western Caribbean to TS Alex, resides on the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. As the ridge tries to build westward (unsuccessfully) it will in turn push the moisture westward over the Keys and coastal waters.
An upper level trough with a 60 knot speed max is expected to move across the northern Gulf coast today, which is forecast to be accompanied by a broad vorticity maxima across the mid levels.
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region through Monday.
This is in response to lift being enhanced in advance of a low pressure center developing along the front this afternoon which will shift east along the front through tonight.
1246 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
255 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the region with satellite showing scattered diurnal cu across southern Indiana and central KY. Regional observations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A low pressure system will move across the Mid-Upper MS Valley tomorrow resulting in a tightening pressure gradient and breezy SSW winds with gusts in the 20-30mph from mid morning and continuing throughout the day. As the low travels northeast of the region through the night, that/those lines should slow down and lay out over our region, from southwest to northeast.
(Tomorrow through Sunday) Whatever is left of the overnight MCS should shift east of the area much earlier in the day Monday, allowing for a warmer afternoon.
Quiet weather continues as high pressure centered over NY/PA continues to exert influence over the OH Valley. KY Mesonet shows current temperatures in the low to mid 70s as of 10am EDT with satellite revealing mostly clear skies across southern Indiana an central KY. Some weak low-level convergence associated with an inverted trough will help enhance the cu field, mainly east of I-65. Fcst soundings show very little instability due to warmer air/capping in the mid-levels. Southerly low-level flow increases tonight ahead of a stronger wave of low pressure.
Afternoon highs in the 80s will fall into the low/mid 60s tonight.
Soundings show the low levels are dry and there's just shallow moisture at the mid levels, so anything that does try to develop will be short-lived and won't be much more than a few sprinkles or possibly a light rain shower.
With plenty of cloud cover arriving overnight the low temperatures will be warmer than the last few nights, bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s. Much of the day should be socked in with clouds so afternoon temperatures will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
The storm cluster that moved into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma has pushed cooler air upslope across western Kansas.
1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 As of 08Z, elevated warm front lifting north toward I-90 is failing to sustain even spotty sprinkles which attempted to develop earlier tonight. As it continues to track east this afternoon, models continue to suggest moisture and instability building along and south of the low level warm front. Thus, despite the proximity of the low level boundary, think severe threat is isolated at best, as depicted by the SPC Marginal Risk.
Warmer and drier conditions return Monday and continue through the week as ensembles show high pressure building over the area. Monday's temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today's, but will remain near to slightly below normal.
This, cloud cover, and a surge of cooler air as mid level heights fall, will cause Monday to be a cooler day. Cloud cover and morning activity may squelch much of the threat (along with cooler temperatures) but will have to watch this closely as SPC has a slight risk over northeast Wyoming.
As the trough over the northeastern Pacific progresses eastward tonight and Monday, the region will see some more rain. So warmer overnight temperatures will support continued snow melt, and with the rain we expect to see rivers to continue to rise with all the runoff.
Temperatures will be typical for summertime in Florida with highs in the low to mid 90 each day.