Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
223 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Upper high still over the area, keeping things hot and mostly dry.
The activity in the mountains will probably diminish Thursday night but a southward moving cold front in the Texas Panhandle will increase precipitation chances across the northern half of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Thursday night and Friday.
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Broad upper ridging to the north extends east-northeast from Arkansas to the Mid-Atlantic states. Closer to Florida, an upper low spins just off the west coast of Florida over the gulf coast waters. A tropical wave sits to the southeast of the Bahamas and has a 50 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours and 70 percent chance of cyclone formation in 5 days.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail after 13z under the influence of high pressure. Tonight Through Friday High pressure aloft continues over the southeast U. An upper low is over the northwest U. The upper ridge will slide to the west through Friday as the low moves across the northern Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon on the periphery of the high pressure area. A cold front enters the Plains tonight and is expected in northwest Arkansas Friday morning. Warm temperatures will continue in the short term but will be a bit cooler in the northwest Friday behind the front.
The primary focus for the forecast period continues to reside with the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front makes its way through the area. Current water vapor imagery depicts a deepening upper-level trough centered across the northwest CONUS with southwest flow aloft prevailing over the local area ahead of this feature. The upper low will lift northeast as it continues to advect downstream through Thursday morning. As it does so, a speed max will center over northwest Missouri around the base of the trough, which will set the stage for organized convection ahead of the attendant cold front. Storms should clear the east by midnight Friday with cooler conditions filling in behind the frontal boundary.
The cold front that is expected to initiate storms will bring a shift in wind direction to northerly as it passes late afternoon into the evening.
A crossing cold front will filter in drier air amid high pressure for the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to drop southwards across our area through today, stalling south of the Mason-Dixon this evening due to the strong SE CONUS ridge and lack of upper support. The front is progged to lift northwards on Friday as a warm front with the expansion of the SE CONUS ridge.
Modest instability and sufficient forcing associated with the boundary may be enough to trigger a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms primarily in central and south central Kansas through mid-day with any precip chances quickly dwindling through the afternoon as much drier air surges south through the high plains behind the front. Pleasant temperatures can be expected today as cooler/drier air spreads into western Kansas. Upper level trough exits the central plains and the upper level winds turns zonal for Friday with an exiting high pressure the winds will turn back to the south during the afternoon. Southerly winds generally 10 to 25kt will persist across central and portions of southwest Kansas overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will then turn north-northwesterly around 15 to 30kt as the cold front pushes through western Kansas through mid/late morning.
1138 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Looking aloft we see the 500mb closed low starting to tighten and become a closed low by 21s centered over the Montana Wyoming state line. The cold front will pass late this evening, but winds will continue to remain strong after the frontal passage. A trough over the northern Midwest moves northeast into eastern Canada Friday as a ridge moves over the northern Plains. With high pressure over the southern U.
A crossing cold front will filter in drier air amid high pressure for the weekend. On Thursday, a weak cold front is progged to push south across the region, although its progress will likely be hindered by the still- strong ridge in place across the southeast CONUS and lack of jet support. The boundary is anticipated to lift north as a warm front as the southeast ridge expands north once again on Friday. Deepening low pressure across the upper Midwest will push a stronger cold front through the region Friday night.
Supercells are expected to track northeastward becoming more scattered to widespread, then a second line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front in more of a linear setup of thunderstorms and move across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, however confidence is low in thunderstorms developing across southwest Nebraska with the second area of convection. Cooler temperatures on Friday with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. along with cooler temperatures. An upper level system and cold front has moved through most of western Nebraska. Northwest winds behind the cold front will increase to about 30020G30KT from 15Z until 00Z Friday, quickly decoupling in the evening.
945 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 High pressure moving into the region will result in a warming and drying into Thursday.
This will drag a cold front into Kansas and northern Missouri by late afternoon and then through the area tonight. The front will begin to usher in some cooler temperatures late tonight over the far northwest counties where lows will drop to near 60, while the remainder of the area remains in the mid and upper 60s. The main upper low/trough will continue to push into southern Ontario on Friday, while the surface front pushes into northern Arkansas early in the day. However, for most of the area, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The only exception to this will be over far south central Missouri where the cooler air will be last to reach and highs pushing 90 are expected.
A large trough of low pressure moving over the Western States will bring drier air to Arizona tonight and Thursday. Temperatures are on track to be near freezing across the higher terrain. A trough of low pressure moving over the western United States has pushed much drier air over western Arizona today.
A seasonably strong low pressure system will lift northeast through the Northern Plains and western Ontario late this week, sending a slowing cold front east through the local area late Thursday night into Friday.
Focus this afternoon switches for thunderstorms to develop near and south of a slow moving cold front. The upper low currently over WY is still expected to push a front into the FA by tomorrow afternoon/evening as the low moves across the Northern Plains.
In wake of the tropical disturbance, a western Atlantic ridge will build westward into our region. See no reason to stray from highs near 90 with overnight lows in the lower 80s.
317 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The cold front that will drive the showers and thunderstorms we'll see later today into tomorrow is currently moving south through southern Colorado and southern Kansas. Short term guidance is in pretty good agreement with the position of the cold front over us. POPS remain high through most of the day Friday as the cold front lifts north somewhat, and shifts east of our CWA by Friday night, when we begin to dry out.
Cold front will push south from Kansas through the Panhandles Thursday, causing our current southerly winds to veer to northerly and finally easterly by the end of the period.
355 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather in the short term. This ridging/warming aloft will keep a lid on the majority of convective potential, but isolated thunderstorms do look possible in the northeast where slightly higher surface dewpoints/higher 0-3km theta-e will exist when compared to the surrounding area. Once again, the deep mixing will drop dewpoints back into the 60s which will limit heat indices to just the lower 100s.
This feature will push cold front into NW MO around midday. By Friday dry conditions evolve with slightly cooler and less humid weather making for a nice comfortable end to the work week.
Tweaked the hourly values to account for slightly cooler temperatures in a few locations and to remove any wording for lingering convection.
A drier airmass has pushed into Central and South GA from the east as surface and upper level ridging continues to build across the region. The surface and upper ridge will also continue to keep temps warm as we are expecting highs in the middle to upper 90s across much of the state today and Friday.
An upper level inverted trough axis along the southern Texas coast and southerly flow from the surface to about 15 Kft to bring isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area today. The activity shifts to areas of the Rio Grande this evening as the upper level inverted trough moves into central Mexico. A cold front is forecast to push across northern Texas tonight into Friday.
A stout upper level ridge remains parked over the Mid-South. Temperatures are running in the low to mid 90s, on par with expectations due to slightly higher humidity and slightly lower low level thicknesses. Locally, expect another mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Updated at 255 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Upper ridging will be the dominant player in our weather for most of the period, with heat and humidity featuring strongly in the forecast. The front will have a hard time making progress against the strong southeast CONUS ridge, but could spark isolated to widely scattered storms across southern Indiana.
Thunderstorms will be possible across central Indiana today through Friday with a cold front moving in.
Modest instability and sufficient forcing associated with the boundary may be enough to trigger a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms primarily in central and south central Kansas through mid-day with any precip chances quickly dwindling through the afternoon as much drier air surges south through the high plains behind the front. Pleasant temperatures can be expected today as cooler/drier air spreads into western Kansas. More seasonable temperatures will linger into Friday as a mild/drier air mass is slow to erode out of the high plains of western Kansas with H85 temperatures ranging from the lower 20s(C) in central Kansas to the mid 20s(C) along the Colorado border.
Strong NW winds will develop over most of the region on the backside of the upper low, esp in the typical squeeze areas in the adjacent plains of the Black Hills from Butte county, SE to eastern Pennington county. Skies will clear tonight with some decent radiational cooling expected esp in areas where winds go calm, supporting lows in the lower 40s, possibly upper 30s.
high pressure will continue its reign over the region this period with a weak cold front reaching the MO/KY border late tomorrow before washing out. Lows tonight will return to the low and mid 70s for most.
Drier and warmer conditions will return to the area late in the week and continue through the upcoming weekend. The axis of the upper trough which brought the cold airmass and recent precipitation to the area has now shifted east of Utah. With skies clearing for the night, minimum temperatures are expected to be even colder than they were last night, and some of the higher valleys could dip below freezing.
As the heart of the upper ridge slides slightly westward, it looks like we will pick up a little more steering flow today, with a northwest flow (albeit only 5 kt or so) coming off the northern Plateau--this will increase chances of storms making it into the lower elevations immediately adjacent east of the northern Plateau in TN/VA.
VFR TAF elements will prevail through the TAF period at all sites, with the exception of KBVO where thunderstorms along a cold front may impact that site late in the period between 22z and 02z.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and low pressure over the southern plains will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through the end of the week.
419 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Axis of upper level trough and associated QG ascent are moving across nrn CO early this morning. Thus, shower activity should gradually end over the plains and mtns by around 12z, as upper trough exits the area. However, with downward descent behind the upper level trough, there will be good mixing later this morning and aftn. Thus expect gusty northwest winds over the higher terrain and across the plains. Finally, with drier air and light winds overnight, some of the high valley areas may drop into the teens for lows by Fri morning.
609 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Upper lvl ridging dominating wx pattern.
522 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed a upper low over southeast MT with a trough axis south along the WY/CO Front Range.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s for most locations, with peak heat index values in the lower 100s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather in the short term. This ridging/warming aloft will keep a lid on the majority of convective potential, but isolated thunderstorms do look possible in the northeast where slightly higher surface dewpoints/higher 0-3km theta-e will exist when compared to the surrounding area. Once again, the deep mixing will drop dewpoints back into the 60s which will limit heat indices to just the lower 100s.
Upper high to remain centered over middle TN today. Some moisture has managed to undercut the ridge and we will see a shrinking cap through the day.
305 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High temperatures today are expected to rise to near normal with a weak high pressure ridge building over Idaho and western Montana.
502 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to drift to the northeast early this morning as a cold front slowly tracks eastward across the area. Temps will be cooler than we have seen the past few days with highs mainly in the 70s. As the upper trough and associated closed low move east of the Central Plains, zonal flow sets up aloft with predominately southerly flow at the surface allowing for highs to reach back into the 80s and 90s for the next several days.
Overnight WV/IR imagery showed a upper low over southeast MT with a trough axis south along the WY/CO Front Range.
Broad upper ridging to the north extends east-northeast from Arkansas to the Mid-Atlantic states. Closer to Florida, an upper low spins just off the west coast of Florida over the gulf coast waters. A tropical wave sits to the southeast of the Bahamas and has a 50 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours and 70 percent chance of cyclone formation in 5 days.
556 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Upper level ridge holds through late week.
Winds will be southerly at 10 knots or less with higher gusts across the higher elevations during the afternoon hours. Aloft, upper level troughing was located over the Rockies with a large expansive ridge over the mid-MS/TN Valley region. At the surface, low pressure was located over portions of NE and SD. On Friday, the upper trough will translate eastward across the northern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure will slide north and east dragging a cold front across the Southern Plains. As this frontal boundary approaches the state, its forward momentum will decrease due to high pressure acting as a blocking mechanism.
An area of high pressure will persist north of the Florida Keys, and centered generally from the Carolinas to Bermuda.
340 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed a upper low over southeast MT with a trough axis south along the WY/CO Front Range.
Temperatures trend warmer on Friday, but with gusty west winds and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Ridging aloft will help clear those lower clouds and maintain mostly sunny skies through the rest of today. Temperatures continue to trend warmer into Friday as the upper level ridge moves away to the east. Lift ahead of the trough, combined with weak instability in the environment should spawn a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies and across the HiLine counties Friday afternoon.
439 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A cold front moved through southeast CO overnight. Today an upper trof will be exiting the area to the east, leaving dry westerly flow aloft over southern CO. Temps today across southeast CO will be cooler with highs around or slightly below average, in the 70s over much of El Paso County, and in the upper 70s and lower 80s over the rest of the plains. Teller County should see highs mostly in the 60s, with a few locations in the lower 70s. Some MOS guidance temps for Alamosa tonight have a low of 33 degrees, which is 6 degrees below average and near freezing.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to drift to the northeast early this morning as a cold front slowly tracks eastward across the area. Temps will be cooler than we have seen the past few days with highs mainly in the 70s. As the upper trough and associated closed low move east of the Central Plains, zonal flow sets up aloft with predominately southerly flow at the surface allowing for highs to reach back into the 80s and 90s for the next several days.
CAM solutions have backed off on areal coverage of showers today across much of the CWA, with perhaps a focus back to the west over western/central SD associated with the upper low circulation.
722 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Pattern pretty much the same under the upper ridge with lots of sun and no low clouds.
A cold front is pushing through the northern Texas Panhandle and is expected to slow then stall out somewhere near a CDS-PVW line by mid afternoon. /issued 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019/ The cold front that will drive the showers and thunderstorms we'll see later today into tomorrow is currently moving south through southern Colorado and southern Kansas. Short term guidance is in pretty good agreement with the position of the cold front over us. POPS remain high through most of the day Friday as the cold front lifts north somewhat, and shifts east of our CWA by Friday night, when we begin to dry out.
With the low chances of showers today around 20% or less, left VCSH after 15z for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. Temperatures are trending toward mid September norms in the low 70s. Surface analysis showing high pressure continuing to ridge across the southeast CONUS and through Texas. Aloft, the southern extent of southeast CONUS high is in the process of breaking down with low pressure entering the northeast Gulf and tracking southwest across the Gulf waters. Ridge will continue to be the main player for the region over the next several days as it continues a westward expansion yielding sharply moisture availability and limiting convective potential.
With the upper ridge building into the region from the NE. Friday should be drier (POP-wise) and warmer as the ridge becomes a little better situated across the Southern Plains. Hot/dry weather will be in place across SE TX at the start of this period given the upper ridge firmly in place. Weak showers and thunderstorms be possible today and as weak high pressure develops over SETX tonight weak but persistent convergence offshore may focus the coverage/chance for thunderstorms primarily in the 20-60nm waters. Will be keeping an eye out for a surge of tropical moisture pushing west through the Gulf associated with the upper trough over the Gulf as the area of disturbed weather over parts of the SE Bahamas drifts into the Florida region Sat/Sun.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather in the short term. This ridging/warming aloft will keep a lid on the majority of convective potential, but isolated thunderstorms do look possible in the northeast where slightly higher surface dewpoints/higher 0-3km theta-e will exist when compared to the surrounding area. Once again, the deep mixing will drop dewpoints back into the 60s which will limit heat indices to just the lower 100s.
Temperatures are trending toward mid September norms in the low 70s. Surface analysis showing high pressure continuing to ridge across the southeast CONUS and through Texas. Aloft, the southern extent of southeast CONUS high is in the process of breaking down with low pressure entering the northeast Gulf and tracking southwest across the Gulf waters. Ridge will continue to be the main player for the region over the next several days as it continues a westward expansion yielding sharply moisture availability and limiting convective potential.
A few isolated storms will be possible at times over the warm coastal waters and over the land areas during the afternoon hours as Max Temps reach the mid 80s along the coast, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas of NE FL/SE GA. Updated Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT) from NHC this morning has increased chances of local impacts across NE FL/SE GA from invest 95L/tropical disturbance in the Bahamas this upcoming weekend and Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Advisories may be started later today.
A cold front will move through Friday night, with a better chance of storms found as it crosses. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s across far northern portions of the forecast area generally north of Interstate 70 to the upper 80s to low 90s across the rest of the region today.
Upper level trough continues to move through the central plains meanwhile a cold front continues to move through southwest Kansas with the position as of noon between Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Tonight winds should calm with high pressure moving in and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s. Friday as the high pressure moves eastward the winds will switch back to the south and highs will reach into the mid 80s. More seasonable temperatures will linger into Friday as a mild/drier air mass is slow to erode out of the high plains of western Kansas with H85 temperatures ranging from the lower 20s(C) in central Kansas to the mid 20s(C) along the Colorado border.
131 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Showers and storms expected again this afternoon, but should remain confined to the higher elevations and away from the airports.
Fair conditions will persist over the Northern Rockies through this evening as a weak transitory ridge of high pressure is over the region. The strongest winds will be in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. While the higher terrain along the Divide could have gusts up to 50 mph.
Issued by National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1039 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High pressure moving into the region will result in a warming and drying through this afternoon.
337 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Updated at 330 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over KY and TN this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the low to mid 90s. A cold front associated with the northern wave will approach from the northwest Friday evening. Highs will once again push easily into the low to mid 90s. Updated at 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A weakening line of showers and storms will clip southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky on Friday evening as a cold front tries to drop south into the Ohio Valley.
The trough that brought our area the recent precipitation continues to move east across the Northern Plains today. This will keep our weather pretty quiet and allow for warmer and drier air to move back into the region temporarily. Overnight temperatures will dip down to very near freezing early tomorrow morning across northern portions of the forecast area. namely the lower elevations near Craig and Steamboat Springs.
Expect just isolated convection over the Coastal Bend on Friday as slightly drier air works in ahead of a weak upper low over the central Gulf.
255 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Dry conditions will continue into tonight, then models continue to bring a weak cold front across the PAH forecast area on Friday. Ahead of the front on Friday, high temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the south half of our counties.