Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge is in place over the western U. While precipitation is moving clockwise around the ridge through the northern portion of the Pacific Northwest, we will see very little precip in our forecast area aside from isolated showers in Baker County and the west-central Idaho mountains.
The passage of a cold front will bring rain and more seasonal temperatures for Monday.
1051 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (Tonight through Sunday) Wraparound showers are continuing to develop and move southward around the back side of the upper low as it moves off to the east.
Low and mid-level warm advection will then return overnight, as the high moves off to the southeast and south/southwesterly surface winds develop. Breezy downslope winds are possible over the northern foothills overnight which would tend to keep low temperatures there a bit warmer than the nearby locations out on the plains. The western CONUS upper ridge will rebuild toward the northern plains on Sunday, and with warm advection continuing, high temperatures are expected to reach the mid-50s to mid-60s for Sunday, and again on Monday. A weak disturbance rounding the upper ridge will cross the forecast area on Monday night.
Further Details: An H5 upper low is currently trekking east across Texas as of writing this, and unfortunately all of the precipitation is well south of the forecast area along with a cold front that passed through this morning. In the wake of this upper low, height rises aloft will gradually spread over the Panhandles with northwesterly flow developing through Monday morning. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s tomorrow with plenty of sunshine, so the weekend will end on a somewhat good note--minus the lack of precipitation of course.
The flow aloft will remain northwesterly and drier on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. At the surface a developing lee trough will also help enhance the downslope the warming in and near the foothills. On Tue, a weak upper level trough will move across, however, cross-sections show little moisture with this feature. Winds will also increase during this period over the higher terrain. A lee trough is expected to develop on Sunday with light winds, the direction will depend on where this boundary sets up though they may often be mostly light and variable.
An area of low pressure in place across the western Gulf of Mexico will be shifting east today and tonight, with an upper trough moving over the state tonight, pushing a cold front through the area. Drier and cooler high pressure builds into the area again behind the front for Monday with flow aloft remaining NW. Highs this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s north to the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and lower to mid 50s coastal central and south.
The n-s trough over Lake MI will move ewd tnt with brisk nwly winds and cold advection increasing across srn WI for Sun AM. High temps in the middle 30s are expected but with wind chills at least 10 degrees cooler. We will be in a transition Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves along the OH River Valley and a system tracks northern MN/WI.
This will result in slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday, but we will still remain around 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year for highs. Highs should range from the upper 40s across our western Iowa counties to the lower to mid 50s across much of our Nebraska counties. As the ridge axis slides southeast of the region later this afternoon, surface winds will turn to the south and increase ahead of a trailing cold front extending southward from the Dakotas. Strong 850mb warm-air advection will spread eastward across the central Plains into Monday with decent mixing behind the trailing Dakotas cold front.
1037 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (The rest of tonight) A upper low was moving east across north TX this evening. At the surface, a cold front was progressing south across the region, lying roughly along the I-44 corridor. There are still some light radar echoes along the Red River near the mid level deformation zone extending to the east-northeast from the upper low center, so some low PoPs were extended into the evening there.
A stacked mid/upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes will push a trough and weak, dry cold front through the region during the day on Sunday. With the front south of the CWA, temps early Monday will be around 10 degrees cooler from the previous night, bottoming out in the upper 20s/low 30s. High pressure is quick to establish over the region in the wake of the front, but is also quick to shift the southeast during the day. High pressure dominates at the surface and will stay centered south of the forecast area.
The low's associated cold front is located northwest of the Ohio River Valley. Additionally, the aforementioned cold front is expected to move through the region towards the evening hours, which will shift winds to a more northwesterly direction and usher in drier air.
250 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes this morning will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon leading in colder air and strong, gusty wind. Monday will be dry with light wind and high pressure.
For today, much warmer this morning versus yesterday with current obs in the mid 30s to low 40s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move across the region during the day today, with increasing high level cloudiness but no rain. However, tonight will be quite chilly as drier air gets brought in behind the front, with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s for most locations outside of the Nashville UHI.
232 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 Initial surface cold front has cleared central Indiana early this morning and except for a few lake effect clouds over far northeast counties and a few high clouds in the far southwest, skies were mostly clear. Mid level low over the upper Great Lakes early this morning will dive southeast into the Lower Great Lakes region today. Surface temps then expected to rapidly fall off late afternoon and evening as core of cold pocket gives us a glancing blow with lows dropping back into the lower and mid 20s tonight. This second system will eventually pull a warm front across the area Monday with a warm advection wing of clouds expected through the morning into the afternoon.
This wave is a bit more perky with decent QG convergence in the 700-300 mb layer and relatively strong 850 mb warm air advection ahead of north-south running associated cold front. How quickly lift/pcpn could overcome this dry near sfc layer is probably the main question in where the higher chances/accum threat lies. A bit more variability in the GFS along with more amplified west coast ridging latter into the week. Thu currently looking like the warmer of the days with some locations nearing/exceeding 50.
Clear skies across central IL despite a cold front pushing southeastward across the area, and any high cloud cover the remainder of the night should be minimal. 21z/3pm surface analysis shows a 1008mb low over southern Lake Michigan with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into northern Missouri. Plenty of sunshine will be observed, which will help boost highs into the lower to middle 40s. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 40s east of I-57 to the lower 50s across the far W/SW CWA.
One, moisture magnitude and depth will be sufficient for a brief period of light snow; two, moisture aloft will be lacking with either no precipitation or patchy freezing drizzle; or three, there will be sufficient moisture in the DGZ to get some flake generation, but the inversion just above the surface may at least partially melt the flakes into snow grains.
between a deep upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a deep upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. followed by southerly return flow (and warmer temps) on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain over the Western CONUS as a large area of high pressure moves over the West Coast mid week. The ridge will flatten some Monday as a weak trough moves southeast across the Rockies.
By Monday the upper trough will move east of the area leading to drier northwesterly flow aloft and clearing skies. Temperatures will add to the misery as thick clouds will keep highs in the low 50s and probably a rather damp 50s.
An upper low comes in behind the aforementioned disturbance to our north and raises chances once again for the northeast mountains with some decent upslope effect which will cause some minor accumulations to occur in the higher terrain lasting through the evening and likely during the overnight hours, possibly longer. Clouds should stay prevalent in the northeast mountains along with slight chances for snow showers while temps will dip into the low 20's, teens in the highest elevations.
Cold front progged to move through the area tomorrow also remains on tracks. /Issued 256 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021/ Broad high pressure is in place from the western Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region, including the Southeastern CONUS. This cold front will move quickly and will push through the area on Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, an increase in mid to upper level clouds will be the main sensible impact ahead of this cold front. If mid-level energy ahead of this low spreads further north, some light sprinkles could be possible in the far southern portion of the forecast area on Sunday, but PoPs remain limited to 10 percent or less at this time. Another shot of cooler northwesterly air will spread into the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning.
An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas today. Based on the boundary layer temperatures late today forecast by the RAP, NAM and even the GFS the highs today will range from around 60 degrees across south central Kansas to around 65 near the Colorado border. The lowest humidity values will be west of highway 283. Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected on Monday given the warm 850mb temperatures forecast along and ahead of a cold front that will be moving across southwest Kansas late Monday afternoon/early evening.
122 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021 Strong high pressure over the region continues to keep the storm track diverted to our north with no precipitation chances. Stacked ridging will reside over the region on Sunday. MOS guidance for Truckee show 0 degree dewpoint depressions by sunrise with calm winds and mostly clear skies - suggesting a better chance for freezing fog through mid morning in Martis and Sierra Valleys. The other issue today will be air degradation in the valleys thanks to inversions with very calm winds extending well beyond mountain ridges. -Dustin Prevailing VFR conditions will be the norm for terminals (with the exception of TRK) as high pressure keeps calm winds in place. Expect extended periods of IFR/LIFR conditions where freezing fog happens to develop.
A dry and mild pattern expected today and likely through the work week as high pressure continues to dominate. Strong ridging continues to dominate over the region. Expect a few cirrus clouds passing from northwest to southeast as some high level moisture moving along northern periphery of the ridge is able to work into the state.
Upper ridge continues to anchor across the western CONUS while mid level perturbations traverse the northern periphery into the northern and central plains today. Given the ample sunshine and lack of strong CAA, opted to bump highs a few degrees but overall much cooler than yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Decent downsloping flow advects much warmer temps from 16C-18C likely at 925 mb into the region. Forecast soundings are consistent mixing this warmer air to the sfc, coupled with sunny skies should result in another warm, record setting afternoon. Past models and NBM data have underestimated the abnormally warm pattern so have trended warmer than previous forecast closer to the 90th percentile of lower 70s.
Thanks to higher dew points and low cloud cover, temperatures were about 5 to 12F warmer in many of the interior valleys. High temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday's, perhaps slighlty warmer. A dominating ridge aloft will maintain dry weather with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures for latter November and the first few days of December. The mountains and upper elevations may end up warmer except for places like Ukiah and southern Lake County. No record highs are expected for coastal areas, however the offshore flow should promote warming for the coast where highs in the lower to mid 60's are expected. The trajectory of the trough suggest a cooler and relatively dry system.
525 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 (Today) Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this morning, currently located near a MLC/Sallisaw/XNA line. Cooler conditions anticipated behind the front today with temperatures near normal for this time of year under mostly sunny skies/light north winds.
446 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions persist through the short term period. The axis of the upper ridge over the High Plains today moves eastward over the Plains states on Monday as the upper flow flattens in response to the short wave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
403 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Today, the ridge axis will slide eastward over the Great Basin allowing for warm air advection to continue. As a result, afternoon highs will end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Despite the mostly clear skies models are suggesting an increase in the lows tonight. This wave will cause the ridge to flatten out, but this looks to have little impact to the sensible weather.
Today through Monday Dry conditions will continue today, as a large ridge dominates the weather over the Intermountain West. Gusty winds will return to the Wind Corridor, due to a leeside trough redeveloping over eastern WY; the temperature gradient will tighten along the Cody Foothills leading to increased gap flow. Similar conditions will be in place Monday, despite the ridge folding over and strengthening the northwest flow aloft.
High pressure will keep us dry here as another system moves south of the region this afternoon. This dry pattern will continue for most of the week as strong high pressure remains in place. 12Z TAFs A dry cold front is currently moving through JBR and MEM. Expect nearly calm conditions after sundown, as high pressure becomes centered over the region.
Should be a fairly quiet day today as WAA takes place above the boundary layer, with the surface warm front lifting northeastwards towards the region throughout the day. Areas near central South Dakota will be the exception as the warm front will likely reach them during peak heating, resulting in temperatures soaring up into the mid to upper 50s. Unfortunately this can't be done without breezy conditions helping to mix down warmer air aloft, with winds on top of the boundary layer around 40 mph resulting in surface wind gusts near 30 mph. A cold front will be moving through during the evening/overnight hours, resulting in overnight low in the lower to mid 30s.
Southerly winds tomorrow along with plenty of insolation, and warmer H85 temperatures will bring daytime temperatures to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Monday.
Temperatures might actually be slightly cooler today but it should still feel fairly nice since there will be less wind.
Surface analysis depicts a dissipating front near the north coast of Cuba, with a cold front extending from the mid Atlantic region across the Southeastern states to the western Gulf of Mexico.
421 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Hot and dry conditions will set back in Sunday as the ridge builds again over the western CONUS. High temperatures will quickly climb back into the 60s across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high country. Lows Sunday night should also be very warm, in the 30s across the plains and 20s in the high country. The usual low-lying cold spots will be a few degrees colder, and lee troughing will enhance the downslope flow and warming in and near the foothills keeping lows in the lower foothills and adjacent plains about 5 to 10 F warmer overnight. Overall there is very little change in model consensus for the upcoming week with the persistent northwest flow pattern with broad ridging over the eastern Pacific.
247 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions persist through the short term period. The axis of the upper ridge over the High Plains today moves eastward over the Plains states on Monday as the upper flow flattens in response to the short wave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
401 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 Weak cold front and southern stream upper disturbance will move across the southeast US today. High pressure and dry conditions return for Monday.
This feature's associated cold front will pass across the Tennessee Valley region later today. A wind shift to the NW in wake of the FROPA will also help to advect in a cooler, drier air mass late in the day and expect temperatures to begin to drop off after steadily after 21z. Despite the sunshine on Monday, northerly winds will help to counteract heating -- with highs in the lower 50s being common during this period.
A corridor of cooler temperatures, middle to upper 50s F, is likely across southern Mississippi as lingering rain and clouds keeps temperatures there from warming as quickly as further north. Tonight, the area of low pressure responsible for the wet weather will be well south and east and in its wake northerly winds will bring in cooler and drier conditions. Overnight lows will stay above freezing for most, but frost will be possible across the area. The Golden Triangle and surrounding areas will likely dip to and a bit below freezing (perhaps to near 30 F) for an hour or two before sunrise Monday.
High pressure will keep us dry here as another system moves south of the region this afternoon. This dry pattern will continue for most of the week as strong high pressure remains in place. A dry cold front will move through tonight and winds will shift from light SW to light NW late tonight and then N Sunday morning increasing to 10 kts.
900 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak and dry cold front approaching the NW CWA zones with high pressure retreating off the SE US coast. Despite the sunshine on Monday, northerly winds will help to counteract heating -- with highs in the lower 50s being common during this period.
309 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Yesterdays cold front has dropped into the Ohio River Valley then curved westward across southern Missouri then along the Oklahoma and Kansas border early this morning. High pressure is centered in central Nebraska with northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. High pressure currently centered in Nebraska will slide to our south through the day with continued northwest winds at the surface. Cooler air will surge across the area today as a weak front moves across the area this morning.
634 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes this morning will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon leading in colder air and strong, gusty wind. Monday will be dry with light wind and high pressure.
Concur with deterministic runs that predict the upper trough, extending from the Greak Lakes region to the Southern Plains/Texas, to move eastward across the SERN CONUS/offshore, while the ridge to the west of the trough axis becomes flat resulting in quasi-zonal flow over most of the CONUS Monday. Concur with the NBM with regard to minimum temperatures, which is cooler than the SREF ensemble mean. Remainder of Monday, dry and slightly warmer.
704 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 An upper level disturbance tracking along the Gulf coast today and exiting to the Atlantic tonight will usher in a diffuse cold front that settles southward down the state today and tonight. High pressure slides east today as a front with isolated showers settles south. High pressure builds in behind the front.
As for interior Northern California, we will remain under Pacific high pressure through the week bringing relatively similar weather conditions each day.
A warm ridge of high pressure is anticipated to persist over the Northern Rockies throughout the coming week.
256 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Today, the ridge axis will slide eastward over the Great Basin allowing for warm air advection to continue. As a result, afternoon highs will end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Despite the mostly clear skies models are suggesting an increase in the lows tonight. This wave will cause the ridge to flatten out, but this looks to have little impact to the sensible weather.
Yesterdays cold front has dropped into the Ohio River Valley then curved westward across southern Missouri then along the Oklahoma and Kansas border early this morning. High pressure is centered in central Nebraska with northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. High pressure currently centered in Nebraska will slide to our south through the day with continued northwest winds at the surface. Cooler air will surge across the area today as a weak front moves across the area this morning.
401 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 High pressure will continue for the foreseeable future with above average temperatures and dry conditions statewide.
A few low lying areas and river valleys may hit the freezing mark.
525 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a broad ridge of high pressure, which extended north from eastern Oregon into southwestern portions of the Northwest Territories of Canada. Downstream of this feature, closed low pressure was located over eastern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, high pressure was located over the western half of the forecast area. With light westerly drainage winds tonight, I did go slightly cooler in the Platte River Valley and western Sandhills. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Monday as warmer air pushes into to the area ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will pass through western and north central Nebraska Monday night.
954 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 A mid level trough will dig east into the eastern Great Lakes today, bringing clouds and wind to the region. High pressure will then build into the area tonight, allowing skies to clear. The high will depart to the east on Monday. This should allow for a slow erosion from the west of the lower level clouds from late morning and into this afternoon. It will be cold with lows falling into the lower to mid 20s. On Monday, high pressure exits to the east. With a developing southerly flow, highs will warm into the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Initial surface cold front has cleared central Indiana early this morning and except for a few lake effect clouds over far northeast counties and a few high clouds in the far southwest, skies were mostly clear. Mid level low over the upper Great Lakes early this morning will dive southeast into the Lower Great Lakes region today. Surface temps then expected to rapidly fall off late afternoon and evening as core of cold pocket gives us a glancing blow with lows dropping back into the lower and mid 20s tonight. This second system will eventually pull a warm front across the area Monday with a warm advection wing of clouds expected through the morning into the afternoon.
High Wind Warning for Garfield, Petroleum and Phillips A warm front will lift across NE Montana this morning with a light wintry mix possible. In addition, ahead of the approaching cold front tonight, afternoon high temperatures will reach or exceed records for much of NE Montana. Temperatures will trend lower over the next couple of days behind the cold front, but remain above average. Winds will also diminish with the departing low pressure system.
352 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS ridge rebuilding into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Upper ridge will dominate our weather through Monday, with very mild temps (close to records in some places) and dry conditions.