Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A fair amount of cloud cover has persisted across northwest Montana and this is mostly like due to the influx of Pacific moisture moving around the upper ridge in place. High resolution models are depicting a few thunderstorms forming with this cold front from north-central Idaho into northwest Montana. We feel that these hi-res models might be overdoing the low level moisture fields, therefore producing more instability than what may occur.
A 500 mb high over the southwest Gulf will extend a ridge to the northeast Gulf on Thursday. Only slight chance PoPs are included northeast of Tifton on Thursday afternoon, where the influence of that upper ridge will be weakest.
404 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Stratocu behind last night's cold front persists in cold air advection underneath an inversion this afternoon, with ceilings over the northwest half of the area, but only scattered clouds in the southeast. High pressure passing by to our north will shift eastward on Thursday and warm air advection will return. The warm front associated with the approaching system is expected to shift northward over our area on Thursday night. A continued increase in moisture, including eventually the lower levels, should result in showers and possibly thunderstorms developing during the night.
Storms are expected to continue to form along the dryline, especially close to the low in northeastern New Mexico. This low is expected to move east into the Texas Panhandle, resulting in the dryline pushing farther east. A cold front will push through late tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the 70s and low 80s.
With an upr ridge building in from the west, am not expecting any widespread or long-lasting convection through sunset this evening. Thursday and Thursday night should be relatively quiet under the influence of a mid-upr lvl ridge of high pressure.
151 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Elongated trough continues to sweep east into Colorado and eastern WY. With the trough moving east, shower activity across central WY will gradually move east, with slowly clearing skies from west to east. Thursday will see brief ridging between systems, with highs in the 60s and 70s for most areas. The leading edges of the pattern change show up Thursday night, as the ridge is pushed east by the broad and deepening rough across the Intermountain West. The leading edge will bring more westerly flow to western WY, bringing a return of snowfall to the higher elevations.
Cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures cooler for one more day with highs expected to be in the upper 80s closer to the coast and in the 90s further inland. Temperatures tomorrow night will be cooler due to a decrease in cloud cover.
310 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 The 12z sounding at KEY this morning sampled a moist boundary layer, along with light and variable winds in the lowest 3 km of the troposphere and only a modest capping stable layer based at around 900 mb.
1223 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper level ridging builds today drying the area out, followed by another front Thursday night.
335 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s in portions of northeast Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel to the 80s south of Tupelo in northeast Mississippi where skies have been clearer through the day. A warm front will surge north across the Midsouth tomorrow and another weaker, 30-40kt LLJ will move from southern Arkansas across the Midsouth late tomorrow. As the longwave trough approaches late tomorrow SRH will increase to around 200m2/s2 increasing the threat for supercells along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The highest threat will likely be in northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel.
322 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 (Issued 204 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will linger tonight with light east to east- southeast winds amid increasing high clouds. Tomorrow, dry conditions will remain through much of the day, even as moisture in association with low pressure approaching the Middle Mississippi spreads in aloft.
411 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Other than scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the area, surface ridging over Lake Superior has yielded a tranquil day. Expect another mainly clear night tonight with temperatures falling back to a degree or two either side of freezing. The overall airmass will be a couple of degrees warmer yielding high temperatures closer to normal (low/mid 60s) across the interior. Closer to the Lakes, lake breezes will yield cooler conditions.
748 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 High pressure maintains dry conditions through Thursday.
305 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper ridging will continue to drive warm temperatures across the region into Thursday with afternoon high temperatures expected into the 70s and 80s.
1057 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure over southern New England will move away to the east tonight replaced by high pressure building into the Great Lakes. This high will lead to dry conditions tonight and tomorrow.
757 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure over southern New England will move away to the east tonight replaced by high pressure building into the Great Lakes. This high will lead to dry conditions tonight and tomorrow.
730 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Other than scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the area, surface ridging over Lake Superior has yielded a tranquil day. Expect another mainly clear night tonight with temperatures falling back to a degree or two either side of freezing. The overall airmass will be a couple of degrees warmer yielding high temperatures closer to normal (low/mid 60s) across the interior. Closer to the Lakes, lake breezes will yield cooler conditions.
850 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 The cold front is now to the south near the I-20 corridor. Dry conditions are forecast to continue overnight with weak upper level ridging in place ahead of a closed low currently located across the Central Plains.
Northeast winds have advected in cooler and drier air into the midstate today with current temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
One change being made to the forecast at this time is to bump up overnight temps a degree or two based on 02z obs which show the area running a little warmer than earlier anticipated.
High pressure over the western Atlantic waters continues to push into the eastern Atlantic waters tonight. An upper level trough will slide off-shore and into the western Atlantic over the next several days.
520 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure located over the southern high Plains, with inverted trough stretching north into central and parts of the northern high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over CO, with positively tilted trough extending from the southern Rockies into the central and northern high Plains. Upper low to the southwest of the region will move slowly east across CO and much of KS over the next 24 hours. Warming trend takes place for late week into the first half of the weekend as upper trough moves well east of the region and is replaced by a relatively flat and mainly dry ridge from the Rockies into the Plains.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridging will continue to drive warm temperatures across the region into Thursday with afternoon high temperatures expected into the 70s and 80s.
Today and Thursday: GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to showcase a closed mid/upper low centered over Colorado and southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Thursday should continue to be on the cooler than average side of climatology, topping out in the mid to upper 50s.
823 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Gusty winds along the Hi-line are decreasing this evening as weak low pressure moves from southern AB to SK. High level moisture streaming in behind the upper level ridge axis slumping east across the region is producing a Chinook Arch across western portions of N-central MT, which will likely persist through tonight.
729 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Drier low level conditions will exist tonight under expansive high pressure. High clouds then thicken throughout Thursday well downstream of organizing low pressure across the plains. A pleasant day on Thursday across Southeast Michigan as lake aggregate high pressure remains in place over Southeast Michigan. Upper level jet streak is forecasted to remain along the south side of the upper level low that will slow the occlusion process with the upper level low as a whole in addition to keeping it south of Lower Michigan.
The low clouds have moved our of our CWA and high clouds have overspread the area ahead of the next storm system. With light winds and only cirrus clouds around, it would seems to me locations like Leota and Baldwin will see low temperatures near to below freezing. So, I lowered the low temperatures along Route 10 and north and that puts widespread frost in that area.
642 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red River. (Thursday through Wednesday) Still a little uncertainty regarding how much atmosphere can destabilize behind main convection line and ahead of approaching cold front, but the overall heavy rain threat should begin to shift east of the region by late afternoon.
727 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. with an axis from the Bay of Campeche to the lower Mississippi Valley. Broad high pressure from the Atlantic extends. With the ridge axis north of the area the prevailing lower level flow will be east or southeast. Winds of 15 knots or less will increase Fri and Sat as high pressure north of the waters moves south while a weak frontal boundary moves in. The boundary begins to wash out and shift south Sun as high pressure builds in from the north.
/issued 335 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022/ Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s in portions of northeast Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel to the 80s south of Tupelo in northeast Mississippi where skies have been clearer through the day. A warm front will surge north across the Midsouth tomorrow and another weaker, 30-40kt LLJ will move from southern Arkansas across the Midsouth late tomorrow. As the longwave trough approaches late tomorrow SRH will increase to around 200m2/s2 increasing the threat for supercells along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The highest threat will likely be in northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel.
High pressure will build over the area tonight into tomorrow, resulting in dry and rather mild conditions.
Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s in portions of northeast Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel to the 80s south of Tupelo in northeast Mississippi where skies have been clearer through the day. A warm front will surge north across the Midsouth tomorrow and another weaker, 30-40kt LLJ will move from southern Arkansas across the Midsouth late tomorrow. As the longwave trough approaches late tomorrow SRH will increase to around 200m2/s2 increasing the threat for supercells along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The highest threat will likely be in northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel.
652 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface analysis places a warm frontal boundary invof southern Arkansas. Second half of the period (05/12-05/24) will depend on a cold front which will affect the state tomorrow afternoon and night.
450 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Elongated trough continues to sweep east into Colorado and eastern WY. With the trough moving east, shower activity across central WY will gradually move east, with slowly clearing skies from west to east. Thursday will see brief ridging between systems, with highs in the 60s and 70s for most areas. The leading edges of the pattern change show up Thursday night, as the ridge is pushed east by the broad and deepening rough across the Intermountain West. The leading edge will bring more westerly flow to western WY, bringing a return of snowfall to the higher elevations.
1043 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 High pressure maintains dry conditions through Thursday.
728 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure over southern New England will move away to the east tonight replaced by high pressure building into the Great Lakes. This high will lead to dry conditions tonight and tomorrow.
804 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A cold front will move east across the region into tonight. Behind the front high pressure will build into our area tonight into Thursday.
This storm remains near the vicinity of warm front and a tornadic/flash flood threat should persist as low level jet begins to strengthen. (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red River. (Thursday through Wednesday) Still a little uncertainty regarding how much atmosphere can destabilize behind main convection line and ahead of approaching cold front, but the overall heavy rain threat should begin to shift east of the region by late afternoon.
611 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure over the Catskill Mtns of New York will drag its swwd trailing cold front southeast across Susquehanna Valley this afternoon and evening accompanied by a shower in some spots. High pressure sliding by to our north will bring dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
Gehring (Issued 204 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will linger tonight with light east to east- southeast winds amid increasing high clouds. Tomorrow, dry conditions will remain through much of the day, even as moisture in association with low pressure approaching the Middle Mississippi spreads in aloft.
Rain and cooler temperatures will return on Thursday and persist through the weekend, mainly across Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. These clouds should persist through this afternoon and evening, lifting early Thursday morning as a weak trough approaches. An upper ridge over the area today has brought more warm temperatures to the interior, with some valley locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. A broad upper trough will dig along the Pacific Coast late in the week, with periods of rain returning, mainly across the N half of the area.
Dry weather and warm temperatures continue Thursday before PoPs begin to increase from the west late in the day as moisture increases within southerly flow and an approaching upper trough. Warm front lifts north through the TN valley today. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 66 79 60 73 / 30 30 80 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 65 79 59 71 / 10 40 80 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 77 57 71 / 10 40 80 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 61 78 57 68 / 10 30 80 80 70.
Do not expect much warming as the low clouds continue to linger. Have the highest pops during the evening through early morning hours. On Friday, the low mentioned in the short term period will continue to move well away from the FA. The highest fire danger should be across far SW/W Kansas. This supports more lee troughing, breezy to windy conditions, and warm to hot highs. There might be a better chance of storms midweek as the main synoptic trof draws closer to western Kansas, resulting in less capped conditions. An upper level low pressure system moving out out over the central High Plains this morning will begin to move east of the area later today.
358 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Temperatures will warm considerably Thursday into Friday with increasing chance of showers or thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Friday night.
353 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Calm and mostly clear night across the Upper Peninsula provided by high pressure dominating the region. Elsewhere, many places should dip close to the freezing mark. A low pressure system is still on track to move through the Missouri/Tennessee Valleys today and tomorrow.
Discussion: Upper ridging is in place across the southern Appalachians today, but will begin to slowly shift east as an upper low over western Kansas begins to shift east towards the Ozarks. Stationary boundary to our south will pull back north into middle TN this afternoon and evening as wave of low pressure kicks northeast from Arkansas into western Kentucky. However it likely doesn't lift through the forecast area until tonight as upper low deepens and rotates into northern Arkansas. Upper ridging today should yield dry conditions today, with only some increasing high clouds and highs in the lower 80s.
However, the upper low to the south will slow down a bit and back the low to mid levels a bit more to out of the east, advecting higher moisture air into locations along and south of I- 90. Better moisture aloft will wrap around the low during the afternoon hours, finally saturating the dendritic growth zone and creating more widespread rain. Winds stay on the lighter side at around 10 mph out of the east but could see some gusts upwards to 15-20 mph along the highway-20 corridor. Upper level ridging moves into the area on Friday, bringing warmer temperatures up into the 60s.
Gusty winds along the Hi-line are decreasing this evening as weak low pressure moves from southern AB to SK. High level moisture streaming in behind the upper level ridge axis slumping east across the region is producing a Chinook Arch across western portions of N-central MT, which will likely persist through tonight.
Further west, convection continues into western OK atop the composite outflow boundary and in advance of the system cold front. This upglide will remained focused across the local region through much of today with showers and storms spreading back across the region ahead of the cold frontal passage later today.
334 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 The upper level low that brought our severe weather yesterday will twirl away from the region today. Weak surface lee troughing will develop from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Short wave ridging will move overhead early Friday morning keeping dry conditions through the overnight hours.
1245 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Other than scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the area, surface ridging over Lake Superior has yielded a tranquil day. Expect another mainly clear night tonight with temperatures falling back to a degree or two either side of freezing. The overall airmass will be a couple of degrees warmer yielding high temperatures closer to normal (low/mid 60s) across the interior. Closer to the Lakes, lake breezes will yield cooler conditions.
406 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure over eastern Canada will bring fair dry weather today.
1202 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure will build into our area through tonight before shifting east by Friday morning.
A cold front crosses the region this evening, bringing with it isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper ridging quickly breaks down with a strong upper disturbance and Pacific cold front crossing the region from west to east late this afternoon through this evening. Flat upper ridging builds into western Montana behind the Pacific cold frontal passage late tonight, which will allow for winds to increase along the Rocky Mountain Front, with strong gusty winds expanding east across much of the plains Friday.
This storm remains near the vicinity of warm front and a tornadic/flash flood threat should persist as low level jet begins to strengthen. (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red River.
One change being made to the forecast at this time is to bump up overnight temps a degree or two based on 02z obs which show the area running a little warmer than earlier anticipated. After the system passes, warmer and dry weather will set in for the remainder of the period.
However, confidence in downstream maintenance into the Lower Mississippi Valley quickly wanes. While rich low-level moisture is in place tomorrow morning, strong heating and deep mixing with a lack of depth to the moisture results in dewpoints mixing out into the low 60s to even upper 50s during the afternoon.
244 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022 08z surface analysis had weak ridge over the CWA and several troughs from central MT into CO. Could be a few showers over south central SD as weak forcing spins around upper low.
The cold front is now to the south near the I-20 corridor. Dry conditions are forecast to continue overnight with weak upper level ridging in place ahead of a closed low currently located across the Central Plains.
The base of a mid-level trough will be centered over the Texas Panhandle this morning, and is expected to lift slowly into the Central Plains by early Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the day.
High pressure dominates the region today beneath midlevel confluent flow, keeping conditions dry and pleasant as temperatures rise into the mid 60s. The light wind field takes on a more east to southeast component through the day which will keep those eastern lakeshore areas a bit cooler. Geopotential heights will gradually erode through Friday morning as the closed low works in from the southwest and additional moisture will stream in via the warm conveyor, so the rain shield will have a chance to expand farther northward through the course of the day. At the same time however, low level wind strengthens out of the northeast and keeps a steady supply of dry air into the low levels.
A weak cold front will ease into the area overnight and Thursday morning, but return flow will resume after sundown. (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper level trough is centered over Colorado with southwest upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The previously mentioned upper trough will move eastward over the plains states on Thursday. A cold front associated with this trough will move into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight/Thursday morning. Some rain/storms will be possible across the far eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos Thursday morning.
An upper level low pressure system now out over the CO region will scoot east the the southern Plains on Thursday and then east into the lower Ohio and Wabash River Valley on Friday. A warm front extending east from the low will lift north across the lower OH River Valley during the day. Will continue with at least scattered thunderstorm chances until the trailing cold front can clear the entire region Friday evening.
Low pressure over northern TX into OK has a trough set up through far southeastern SD. At 500mb a low will move into southwestern, with a trough pushing across the Dakotas during the day.
An upper level low centered over the Rocky Mountains today will move east across the Central Plains Thursday, then to the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley Friday.
300 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 06z data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a storm system over the southern Plains. The strength of the high over the Great Lakes will force the next storm system well south of the area. During the daylight hours Thursday sprinkles/light showers will continue to slowly develop northward over time with the the possibility of the highway 20 corridor remaining dry. The upper low is forecast to be well south as well through Friday, thus instability will be limited for our precipitation processes. The GFS and EC are now in better agreement on the low's path, but are remaining different on QPF, but looking at the strength of forcing and instability (lack of), I'm inclined to advertise the lower end of the QPF range now.