Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A much cooler and drier air mass moves in for tomorrow for much less shower activity, but there may be enough juice left in the atmosphere to spark a very isolated thunderstorm. By late Thursday morning, the rain and gutsy winds will end and some clearing is possible as high pressure arrives. Building high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east of Lake Superior is causing a pressure gradient that will stir up small craft advisory level winds across the waters today and tonight.
310 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A high amplitude ridge will remain parked over the western CONUS region through the period. A cold frontal push earlier today brought slightly cooler temperatures to the region that will continue through Thursday with highs reaching into the upper 60s for the plains and 50s and 60s for the higher elevations and high mountain valleys. This will also help to increase dewpoints slightly over the higher terrain and into the lower elevations by this evening.
Warmer temperatures west of the scattered sprinkles have resulted in relative humidity levels dropping below 25 percent through the James River Valley as of 4 pm. Cloud cover will continue to advance southeast out of Minnesota overnight, and a few lingering sprinkles could be possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Have raised temperatures slightly given the persistent mixing, but temperatures in most areas will fall into the lower 40s.
844 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A cold front has just pushed across the Ohio River this evening, shifting winds to the northwest in its wake. The bulk of the cooler air is still well off to our northwest in central IN/IL, but it will gradually advect in over the next several hours. Gusty SW winds continue ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. The cold front is expected to pass through later this evening, with a brief (2-3 hours) increase in cloud cover. A few showers (20- 30%) could drop into our NE again, but overall still calling for a mostly dry day elsewhere and slightly cooler highs confined to the 60s.
Cool air is pouring into the Midwest, though the deep mixing behind the cold front is both allowing for a mild high temperature today and has brought the expected 2 to 4 hour window of strong winds that have reached near 45 mph in spots, measured almost exclusively on ASOS, which is a 10M mounted wind speed measurement and could be higher than the AWOS units.
519 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Expect little change in conditions over the next 36 hours as the ridge of high pressure persists over the West.
Winds under these showers were the strongest we'd seen all day with values between 50 of 55 mph at Park Rapids, Staples and Verndale as convection brought down the higher speeds aloft within the shower activity. Showers are expected to taper off through the late evening, leaving us with much cooler in the wake of a cold front. Highs Thursday will reach the lower 40s for the Lake of the Woods region, with upper 40s near Valley City.
/Tonight/ All remains quiet this evening, although bndry lyr winds remain out of the SSW which has helped to keep temps some 3-7+ degrees warmer than what was observed 24 hrs ago. However, the evening water vapor imagery depicts a longwave trough digging SE through the Plains into the Midwest, which has reinforced a cold front S into Srn and Ern OK into NW and extreme Nrn AR into Wrn KY. Lt/Vrb or Lt SSW winds tonight will become ENE 7-12kts by 14Z with the passage of a cold front that move through NE TX/N LA through mid-morning, before exiting the region by midday.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ While the West Coast bakes under a potent late season ridge, autumnlike northwesterly flow across the Plains will usher another cold front into the Lone Star State, putting the brakes on our early week warming trend.
614 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will persist across West Central Texas through the short term, with upper level ridging over the West, upper level troughing over the Midwest, and dry northwest flow aloft over our region. Tonight, clear skies and light winds should lead to decent radiational cooling, but probably not as cool as it was last night, due to some strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. At the surface, a weak cold front will come down into the Big Country by Thursday afternoon, so expect slightly cooler highs Thursday for that region (low 80s).
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Updated aviation section for upcoming 06z taf issuance A dry cold frontal passage will take place later this afternoon and early tonight.
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A dry cold frontal passage will take place later this afternoon and early tonight.
854 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A reinforcing cold front has brought a chance for some light showers this evening.
Amplified pattern continues aloft with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. Two short wave lobes round the base of the mean trough during the course of the short term, the first tonight and the second. A surface cold front stretches southwest from a low over the Great Lakes. This cold front will slide through eastern Kentucky overnight. The second system will produce a weak trough at the surface. High pressure will build into the region afterwards, ushering another reinforcing shot of cool autumn air which will drop temperatures back down below averages for this time of year. The first few days we will see below normal temperatures, with daily highs in the 60s and nightly lows in the low to mid 40s.
Light S/SE winds will continue through early Thursday morning, when a weak cold front will move through the region resulting in a NE/E wind shift at all terminals.
High pressure aloft persists across the west coast with little change in the broad scale pattern expected.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. High pressure will remain the dominant feature, being slowly superseded by a new air mass moving south into the Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf. Mid level ridging centered over the Southwest United States and North Central Mexico will extend east over deep South Texas. With upstream ridging in place, will expect mostly clear to clear night time skies and mostly sunny to sunny daytime skies with no rain in the short term forecast.
338 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 We continue to see a large mid/upper ridge across the Central Great Basin and Northern Intermountain region including much of the West Coast while an expansive mid/upper trough was over the Great lakes area and impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. As high pressure settles south across the area tonight, low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s for low-lying and rural areas. The persistent pattern of western ridge and eastern trough will pretty much remain intact with some subtle variations as we move through the period. As the main mid/upper trough axis migrates slightly eastward we'll have an increasing influence from the mid/upper ridge although NW mid/upper flow is progged to prevail through the period.
The cold front now crossing the Red River will sweep southward through North and Central Texas prior to daybreak, bringing renewed northeasterly winds and a reinforcing shot of drier air to the region.
Also, with cooler temperatures today, the relative humidity is not expected to drop below 20 percent as was the case for most locations yesterday. Thursday and Friday: Another cold front is expect to move through the area Thursday morning before sunrise. This will lead to 850 mb temperatures in Nebraska to drop below freezing. High pressure will eventually move into the area late Thursday which will finally put an end to those strong northwest winds. The high pressure will lead to calm winds and clear skies. Temperatures Friday should be a couple of degrees warmer Friday (low 60s).
A chilly cyclonic flow reinforced by the passage of a pair of cold fronts will keep unsettled weather across parts of the region through the period. Upper level troughing continues across the region this weekend. Chilly Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain to the low 40s across the Lake Plains.
A dry backdoor cold front will continue to advance west and south overnight.
/Issued 843 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ Current forecast for tonight is on track as cold front works across extreme southeast Oklahoma this evening.
201 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A dry cold front has started to make its way through Middle TN this morning. While currently inconsequential, it will bring with it much drier air and cooler temperatures that will be felt over the next few days.
341 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 An upper level trough currently encompasses almost the entire country east of the Rockies. FL and west TX are the only ones generally outside the troughing. The result of this will be a reinforcing cold front swing through the CWA late this afternoon and evening. Increasing northerly winds will probably reach southwest Mississippi to I-12 area around midday with the actual cold front/airmass change 3 to 6 hours behind it.
Continued ridging over the area will lead to warm and dry conditions today, followed by cooler overnight lows with nearly clear skies.
1018 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Updated the temperatures and dewpoints to correspond with cooler current trends. today with with a longwave trough draped across the eastern U. and high pressure across the west. The high pressure is dominating the weather across S TX keeping the airmass dry and skies clear.
Tonight Through Friday A large upper ridge will be over the western U. and the large upper trough will continue over the eastern two thirds of the U. A dry cold front near the Arkansas and Missouri border is poised to move through Arkansas tonight. High pressure and dry, cool air will filter in behind the front.
Low temperatures were lowered slightly in northeastern areas of the County Warning Area (CWA) and along the Northern Plateau based on recently cooler trends. A cold frontal boundary is located near to just east of the Ohio River with only a few isolated light showers well to our north. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 47 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 45 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 45 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 42 63 39 65 / 10 0 0 0 0.
An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will stay fairly stationary but amplify through the near term period. Meanwhile, a reinforcing surface cold front will progress over the southeastern CONUS during this time, with passage over the local area Thursday afternoon and evening. This feature is not expected to bring much precipitation or clouds, but usher in cooler, drier air as well as increased northwesterly winds down into the deep south by late week. Low temperatures overnight tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 50s south. Highs Thursday will then be in the lower to mid 80s, with overnight lows Thursday night similar to tonight.
A high amplitude ridge will remain parked over the western CONUS region through the period. A cold frontal push earlier today brought slightly cooler temperatures to the region that will continue through Thursday with highs reaching into the upper 60s for the plains and 50s and 60s for the higher elevations and high mountain valleys. This will also help to increase dewpoints slightly over the higher terrain and into the lower elevations by this evening.
An upper trough will bring chances for rain this afternoon and evening. A short wave upper trough will dig into the area this afternoon. Feel that the forcing from the upper trough and surface features combined with the steep lapse rates will overcome the lack of deep moisture and allow convection to develop.
along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. Canadian high pressure. With this in mind, sensible weather on Thursday will be analogous to today -- albeit 7-10F cooler via persistent weak cold advection. To start off the period, upper ridging dominates the western half of the country, with an upper trough extending from the Plains to the east coast.
A much cooler and drier air mass moves in for tomorrow for much less shower activity, but there may be enough juice left in the atmosphere to spark a very isolated thunderstorm. Ceilings are also expected to begin lifting as high pressure pushes in from the west. Building high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east of Lake Superior is causing a pressure gradient that will stir up small craft advisory level winds across the waters today and tonight.
A weak storm system will throw scattered rain showers across NY and PA on Friday as an upper level trough digs through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s. The end of the week continues to look unsettled as an upper trough amplifies across the Eastern U. A upper level trough will move through the region on Friday with a chance for some showers.
Tonight through Friday night: Quasi-stationary upper level ridge of high pressure linger through this period. Ensembles suggest the upper level ridge axis migrates from off the coast to overhead of the Cascades very late Friday night. At lower levels a thermal ridge is mirrored in the ensemble 1000-500mb thickness fields shows amplification that peaks early Friday followed with weak migration to the interior Friday night. The resulting slight dampening of the ridge may allow thin higher level clouds to stream overhead Friday/Friday night. At the same time the path California fire smoke is taking to be positioned overhead the Inland Northwest is pushed south by the ridge repositioning, thus haze is no longer mentioned in the forecast for Friday and Friday night.
Few changes for tonight and tomorrow's forecast, as high- amplitude ridging continues to control our weather.
High pressure remains in control over East Idaho through the forecast cycle.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer east under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Aloft, a tight northwest flow pressure gradient was analyzed with cyclonic flow rotating around a low centered over the Hudson Bay region.
1256 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A reinforcing cold front moves through early this morning, then another Thursday night. Chilly high pressure to end the week.
Light southwesterly winds overnight will become northerly during the morning as a dry cold front pushes through the area. /TW/ Rest of tonight: Mean longwave trough is persistent from the lee of the Rockies across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes & into the northeast. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Thursday: A longwave trough located over the eastern two-thirds of the country this afternoon is the reason for the northwest flow aloft and the cool, fall temperatures today. The front will make its way through our CWA tomorrow morning as the cooler air follows behind and slowly works its way into the area.
Broad upper troughing prevails aloft across the east/central CONUS, while at the surface a dry cold front slides southeast through the OH Valley at this time. The aforementioned cold front will march through the area early on Thursday with little fanfare other than increasing low clouds and veered nwly flow. Thursday night looks like another calm evening with mostly clear skies, with the exception of sct stratus across the high terrain as weak/moist upslope flow prevails.
The post-frontal air mass behind yesterday's cold front will result in high temperatures ~15 deg F cooler, which is around 5 deg F below average for early October.
Overnight lows look to reach the low to mid 40s. Continue CAA advection will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The coldest temperatures look to be across northeast KS, where the ridge axis looks to be place by 12Z Friday. Will have to monitor the exact timing of the ridge axis, should its progression be slightly faster, winds could be a few MPH faster.
120 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through Thursday night as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore Friday morning followed by cool and dry high pressure for the weekend. With the cold front well offshore, temperatures this afternoon are below normal by about 5-7 degrees. Another cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest on Thursday. High temps Fri in the low/mid 70s with low temps Fri night in the low/mid 50s. Temps: Slightly below normal through the period, with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows ranging through the 50s.
Winds under these showers were the strongest we'd seen all day with values between 50 of 55 mph at Park Rapids, Staples and Verndale as convection brought down the higher speeds aloft within the shower activity. Showers are expected to taper off through the late evening, leaving us with much cooler in the wake of a cold front. Highs Thursday will reach the lower 40s for the Lake of the Woods region, with upper 40s near Valley City. Temperatures remain a bit warmer across the southern portions of the Devils Lake Basin and areas south, with lower 30s expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
With this forecast cloud cover in ND, Friday morning temps are expected to stay largely above freezing remaining in the mid 30s. Minnesota locations hold best chance for radiating out to below freezing Friday morning (except for perhaps some spots where lake-induced cloud cover near the relatively warm LOW and the Red Lakes increasing uncertainty in bottoming out temps). The Red River Valley is also questionable in reaching freezing temps, dependent upon arrival of thicker cloud cover to stop cooling.
With a ridge of high pressure building south winds should gradually lessen into the late afternoon and become fairly light near and shortly after sunset. While this high pressure will bring lighter winds it will also bring the potential for cooler morning lows. Today will be cooler with highs only climbing into the 50s. While there is a nice cold pocket aloft that could support some minor sprinkle or light shower potential the surface temperatures are also cooler so the instability near the top of the mixed layer is very weak. As high pressure builds south temperatures will fall off overnight, likely in to the lower to mid 30s in many locations. High pressure at the surface will shift east pretty quickly with east to southeast flow expected to develop Friday.
High pressure will maintain a warm and dry airmass across the region through the upcoming weekend. Mid level ridging centered west of the area maintains a dry and mild northwesterly flow this evening.
A weak storm system will throw scattered rain showers across NY and PA on Friday as an upper level trough digs through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s.
145 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A cold front enters the area late tonight into Thursday.
1122 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A deep upper level trough will remain centered over the Great Lakes into the upcoming weekend.
/Tonight/ All remains quiet this evening, although bndry lyr winds remain out of the SSW which has helped to keep temps some 3-7+ degrees warmer than what was observed 24 hrs ago. However, the evening water vapor imagery depicts a longwave trough digging SE through the Plains into the Midwest, which has reinforced a cold front S into Srn and Ern OK into NW and extreme Nrn AR into Wrn KY.
Otherwise, another brisk day with gusty northwest winds, but much cooler due to increasing cold air advection. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s, with Taylor county only in the upper 40s. Tonight still looks like a good setup for widespread frost and even some freezing temperatures up north. Radiational cooling should allow widespread temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with some upper 20s over west possible central WI, where a freeze warning may need to be considered in later forecasts.
High pressure ridge currently stretches from southern Texas to the Florida Panhandle. A weak, dry front is situated from the eastern Great Lakes back through the lower Mississippi River Valley. Strong high pressure will build in behind the weak boundary on Friday.
300 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Another crossing cold front will return shower chances late today through Friday morning.
Clear skies, light winds, and dry air is once allowing for good radiational cooling this morning, and the cooler air now beginning to settle into typical lower elevation basins. The actual weak cold front is forecast to move into northeast portions of the CWA early this evening, and gradually filter through the remainder of the CWA late evening and overnight. Slightly stronger wind speeds and mixing overnight and Friday morning should actually result in low temperatures Friday morning warmer in most locations than this morning. However, high temperatures Friday should be slightly cooler, in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
1134 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Expect little change in conditions over the next 36 hours as the ridge of high pressure persists over the West. This dry system will bring some clouds and breezy afternoon winds for the higher valleys along the Divide, but no precipitation.
A cold front is expected to move across the terminals between 00z and 06z, and northerly flow should increase to around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots at KNEW and KMSY.
250 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through tonight as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore Friday morning followed by cool and dry high pressure for the weekend. Weak area of high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear and dry today and tonight ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs today will be very near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while highs Friday will range below average for early October in the low to mid 70s. Broad mid level troughing will give way to a southwest flow. At the surface, high pressure will move across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through the period.
Cooler and drier weather returns for the weekend. Cloudy conditions will persist across most of the North Country today as upper level trough remains firmly overhead. Temperatures will trend below normal tonight into Friday with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s (near 50 along Lake Champlain shoreline) and highs in the low 50s/around 60.
1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will persist across West Central Texas through the short term, with upper level ridging over the West, upper level troughing over the Midwest, and dry northwest flow aloft over our region. Tonight, clear skies and light winds should lead to decent radiational cooling, but probably not as cool as it was last night, due to some strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. At the surface, a weak cold front will come down into the Big Country by Thursday afternoon, so expect slightly cooler highs Thursday for that region (low 80s).
Another day, another cold front and short wave dropping in.
This AM we have another cold front just to the northwest of Alabama extending from West Virginia to Western Tennessee and back into North Texas. On Friday, as the front continues into the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida, the ridge will slide into Eastern Conus reinforcing the cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend.
With mostly clear skies, current temperatures are rather dependent on winds, as places where winds have calmed have cooled into the low 40s and even upper 30s. Despite the sunny skies and decent mixing, cool H85 temperatures should keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. If the clouds associated with this feature remain north and west of the area, temperatures could easily drop into the low/mid 30s, allowing for the first widespread frost threat of the season. WAA with this next system won't be particularly strong, but temperatures will still be slightly warmer compared to Thursday.