Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A slow moving cold front is traversing the area, bringing some light to moderate showers with it. Strong mixing ahead of the front has brought well above normal warmth to the Pine Belt region again this afternoon with highs reaching the lower 80s. Given strong capping ahead of the front and weakening ascent with the departing trough, most rainfall is anafrontal and light in nature, although precipitable water values near 1. Warm advection associated with a building ridge over the southeast CONUS will support a few showers, but weak frontal lift will should only bring light rainfall amounts on average.
02 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across Central Alabama and into North Central Georgia.
This is occurring behind a surface cold front, which has moved well south of the area. The front is expected to stall along the coast early Sunday before washing out and giving way to a return to much warmer air during the day on Sunday.
The cold front will shift west more as a backdoor cold front with NE flow pressing down the local Atlantic coast through Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds NE of the region. WSW winds this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly settle across the local waters Sunday as high pressure builds northeast of the region. Onshore flow persists through this upcoming week as high pressure dominates northeast of region.
/issued 224 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ Warmer today with a bit more sunshine despite a cold front pushing into the Permian Basin region, shifting winds to the northeast.
401 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 A shallow cold front extends from near Natchitoches southwest to near Lufkin where temperatures are in the mid 50s compared with Alexandria which reported 74 degrees last hour. The front will lift back to the north Sunday as a warm front which will be enough to sustain at least low end POPs early Sunday before precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon.
Lightning data suggested a bit of thundersnow in northeast Knox County shortly before noon, which could explain the higher snow amounts there. High pressure will move over the area tonight, with a nice warmup starting Sunday as southerly winds kick in behind the high.
Based on surface observations this evening, the western side of the ridge still over central Florida. And winds over the Florida Keys were from the east to southeast and are expected to slowly turn overnight from the northeast to east as the ridge lifts to the north.
The front really does not make it through the forecast area thanks to a fairly decent ridge over the Atlantic. After the cold front all but dissipates and moves north, the foggy mornings should begin to improve for the beginning of the work week.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front over portions of Central/Southern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 40s at most locations with the exception of Monroe County, Mississippi where temperatures are still in the lower to middle 50s. Short term models indicate the downstream cold front will begin to return back north as a warm front on Sunday with rain chances increasing especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
The main forecast driver will be a upper level trough that will begin to dig south into the Rockies tomorrow forcing a cold front towards the area.
Expecting ceilings to lower into MVFR levels for the overnight with the potential for IFR and LIFR ceilings by daybreak as a cold front traverses the area.
A cold front is just about to enter the NW portion of the CWA as of 2030 MDT, and will continue to move SE before stalling along the ID/NV border near sunrise. This was likely due to the showers in the area, rather than the actual cold front. Numerous showers expected as an cold front moves through region tonight. Surface winds westerly 10-20kt with gusts up to 45kt in showers tonight ahead of cold front. Behind cold front on Sunday, expect scattered IFR/MVFR snow showers with westerly surface winds 10-20kt; higher gusts possible in showers during the afternoon.
Sunday Night Through Saturday Snow will be winding down Sunday evening as the 850 mb low slides over Lake Superior, dragging a cold front south in its wake. How far south this cold front tracks through the early part of the new work week will play a role on the precipitation type and will present a big forecast challenge.
707 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 Low pressure will move off the coast by midnight.
/issued 401 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ A shallow cold front extends from near Natchitoches southwest to near Lufkin where temperatures are in the mid 50s compared with Alexandria which reported 74 degrees last hour. The front will lift back to the north Sunday as a warm front which will be enough to sustain at least low end POPs early Sunday before precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon.
913 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 As of 9 PM, radar and surface observations indicate the shallow cold front has continued to progress southward and extends roughly along Interstate 10. Behind the cold front, temperatures have already dropped into the upper 50s/low 60s. The inherited forecast indicated a slower southward progression of the surface cold front and current temperatures were already at or near forecast lows for the evening. /issued 401 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ A shallow cold front extends from near Natchitoches southwest to near Lufkin where temperatures are in the mid 50s compared with Alexandria which reported 74 degrees last hour. The front will lift back to the north Sunday as a warm front which will be enough to sustain at least low end POPs early Sunday before precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon.
A few areas of scattered showers have developed through the day under the trough axis, all pushing to the south. Skies will clear tonight, and with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s, light and patchy fog might develop in sheltered locations.
A mid-level longwave ridge centered over the Great Plains will gradually move eastward tonight into Sunday, resulting in an end to the dry and mild weather pattern we've had for most of May. A weak warm front will try to lift northeast into the Upper Midwest late Sunday resulting in increasing clouds from west to east and a chance for showers late in the afternoon, mainly across north- central Minnesota from the Brainerd Lakes region north towards Leech Lake and up towards the international border. With mostly sunny skies to start temperatures should climb to the mid 60s to mid 70s inland, but increasing easterly winds will result in cooler air from Lake Superior intruding well inland. Locations along the lakeshore will be limited to the low 50s while even locations inland such as Cloquet and Isabella may struggle to reach 60.
Sunday itself appears mainly dry, though with the proximity of the large upper trough expect cool daytime temperatures with highs into the 60s.
a low pressure system will deepen into the western Dakotas late this evening and slowly edge eastward into the central Dakotas by mid morning. Low temperatures should settle into the upper 40s near the Canadian border and into the lower 50s nearer the South Dakota border. with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s near the Lake of the Woods to the lower 80s in the southern Red River Valley. The main upper ridge that dominated the central portion of the country throughout the weekend will finally begin to slide off to the east by Sunday night.
An upper level ridge currently over the area will slowly drift eastward tonight into Sunday.
The upper level trough responsible for the convection will lift northeast tonight and Sunday. After another cool start to the day (with lows in the 20s to mid 30s), highs will be several degrees warmer than today, but still around 10 degrees below normal.
/ISSUED 739 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ High pressure will bring clear skies to the area overnight.
639 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the nations mid section will remain the dominate weather feature in the short term. A weak wave will temporarily flatten the ridge top tonight.
Precip has exited the area and high pressure will continue to build into the Southern appalachian Region overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low to upper 50s east of the CO/KS border. At the start of the period, southwesterly flow continues aloft on the backside of an upper ridge centered over the CONUS. A cold front stalls near northern Kansas Sunday night as a low level jet develops.
746 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure across eastern Wisconsin will track southeast across northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday morning.
907 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure over Lower Michigan will track southeast across northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday morning.
Current surface analysis reveals a very broad 1016mb high pressure system over southwestern MO influencing central KY and southern IN with no significant fronts/boundaries in sight. Not expecting any precipitation to fall from the clouds as strong subsidence associated with the high pressure will keep vertical growth of clouds limited. Anticyclonic flow around the high pressure will keep winds light out of the west and northwest through most of the day Sunday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer than today's afternoon temperatures as some warmer air advects in aloft. High-amplitude ridge over the central Plains will begin to slowly propagate toward our region through much of the early to mid-week period.
This afternoon a broad upper level trough was located across the western US, while an downstream upper level ridge was located across the plains. The upper trough across the western US will shear apart with the northern section of the upper trough lifting northeast into west central Canada. The southern section of the upper trough will dig southeast across CA. The upper level ridge across the plains will slowly shift east into the MS river valley after 00Z MON.
Southerly flow will continue throughout the night ahead of a weak cold front. Could also see an elevated storm or two develop near Sioux City on the nose of the low level jet ahead of the front.
Have therefore trended aob the cooler guidance. However, with cooler temps and warm water temps, can't rule out fog along sheltered rivers. Winds will become swly on Sun with the 850mb thermal ridge advecting into the region. With mixing to around 850mb and ample insolation, have trended aoa the warmer guidance.
High pressure continued to be the dominate feature across the Southern Plains this evening with clear skies observed underneath the high across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
The lowest RH has been at ABR, at 12 percent. Low pressure, along with isolated weak showers or thunderstorms, will slide across western and central SD Sunday morning, and linger over eastern SD and western MN Sunday afternoon. The elevated nature of development, with little precipitation making it to the ground, in our very dry lower levels support the low pops. The result is mid to upper 80s over and east of the James River Valley (excluding the cooler higher elevations of the Prairie Coteau). Placing the passage of the inverted trough over ABR 15-17Z Sunday.
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.
Surface analysis places a ridge of high pressure centered over Southwest Missouri this afternoon.
Think the low-level atmosphere is too dry to support fog at this time.
Current temperatures at this time are in the mid 70s with more warming expected before sunset which will allow most areas around the region to reach the lower 80s. Tonight temperatures will fall to the mid 50s north of I-30, and the lower 60s south of I-20 but once again similar to today the temperatures will again rebound quickly. Tomorrow daytime high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with a light north to northeast winds early before veering to the southeast late Sunday.
Dry conditions expected today as heights rise behind the exiting trough. Most of the warm air advection will be confined to the west and far south as cooler air continues to rotate around the persistent eastern upper level low. The northeast will see temps in the low to mid 60s, while the southwest should see temps pushing toward the upper 70s. Western trough is projected to amplify and drift toward the Central CONUS by late in the week, pushing upper ridge from Mid-West to Eastern CONUS. Much warmer temperature and dry weather may be anticipated for much of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday night as surface ridging slowly builds in, though crossing mid level clouds are expected on the wrn side of the low. Restrictions are possible with the approach of a late week cold front.
Winds become north and increase Sunday as high pressure builds in to the north.
Current surface analysis reveals a very broad 1016mb high pressure system over southwestern MO influencing central KY and southern IN with no significant fronts/boundaries in sight. Not expecting any precipitation to fall from the clouds as strong subsidence associated with the high pressure will keep vertical growth of clouds limited. Anticyclonic flow around the high pressure will keep winds light out of the west and northwest through most of the day Sunday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer than today's afternoon temperatures as some warmer air advects in aloft.
At the surface, high pressure is centered nearly overhead while 500 mb and visible satellite analysis show the departing upper trough moving along the eastern seaboard. Upper level ridging is progged to become more centered over the region tomorrow which will bring an end to the wrap around clouds. At the surface, the high will slide east of the area by tomorrow afternoon turning winds back out of the south and increasing dewpoints.
For Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will push south and southwest across the region.
1142 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies to the area overnight.
828 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will build east across NC tonight and Sunday.
The front will push through the area Sunday and conditions will clear out through the late morning with high pressure building into the area behind the front. High pressure will then remain in place across the area through the rest of the period.
The precipitation should diminish by early Sunday as weak high pressure moves over the region.
853 PM PDT Sat May 13 2017 Temperatures will be cooler than average for Mothers Day, and there will be a chance of showers over much of the Inland Northwest.
With such dry air in the low levels mixing upward. Any isolated showers will be confined to the highest terrain, if they form at all today.
Moisture returning from the Southern Plains from eastern Kansas/Oklahoma on the back side of the ridge will work north toward western Iowa by Sunday morning. temperatures will once again warm into the lower to mid 80s over most of the region due mainly to increased mixing during the afternoon. /Sunday night through Saturday/ An upper level ridge will remain in place across the Upper Midwest through the weekend.
the Southern Appalachian Region will continue to transition into a quiet weather pattern with high pressure building in.
630 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Area of high pressure currently southwest of Illinois will settle into the lower Mississippi Valley overnight, resulting in winds swinging around to the southwest with time. The upper ridge over the Plains will slowly build eastward, and keep our area mainly clear into Sunday.
739 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies to the area overnight. /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ Today's surface analysis at 19Z was fairly simple with broad weak high pressure over much of the Plains into Texas. Upper level analysis has ridging aloft over much of Texas and the Plains for that matter.
High pressure will take over and return above normal temperatures for a change. Still think just a slight uptick in pops is warranted as upstream IR and water vapor indicate a moistening column despite a very dry atmosphere in the lowest 6KFT.
The surface cold front that had accompanied the upper trough was barely discernible, and NWP guidance frontogenesis fields show almost no trace of the front tonight, as it becomes just a surface wind shift.
615 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 /00Z TAFS/ Developing lee trough will bring south winds gusting over 20 KTS at times mid morning through afternoon at KABI, KSJT, and KSOA. But, sunny skies continue Sunday as a ridge of high pressure aloft flattens as upper level low pressure approaches from the West Coast.
737 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure and drier air will be overtaking the region tonight.
525 PM MDT Sat May 13 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge centered over western South Dakota with an upper low moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. There is a long wave trough extending southward from the Pacific northwest low down to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure just north of the Black Hills with a cold front extending through central Wyoming and a warm front along the North/South Dakota border. For this afternoon and evening, low level instability combined with convergence along and the cold front and eastern foothills will allow some showers and storms to develop. The cold front should move through most of the forecast area overnight. Temperatures will remain above normal behind the front, but will be about 10 cooler than Saturday.
This activity looks to be short lived as the low continues its push south and east through the Detroit Area. Mid level moisture may linger as an axis of moisture shearing southeast from the large upper low over British Columbia extends down into the Great Lakes. Sunday will be a dry day as an amplified ridge over the plains slides into the region. This occuring as the the upper low over Ontario finally dives southeast into the New England states as a strong northern stream jet surges through the base of the low, pulling it far enough south to phase with a southern stream wave. The ridge axis will remain to the west of the area keeping the better heat to our west and south, but temps should again reach near 70 with the resident airmass in place.
Lee trough will strengthen, with south wind gusts of 20 to 25 KTs at KABI, KSJT, and KSOA mid morning through afternoon. /issued 615 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ Developing lee trough will bring south winds gusting over 20 KTS at times mid morning through afternoon at KABI, KSJT, and KSOA. But, sunny skies continue Sunday as a ridge of high pressure aloft flattens as upper level low pressure approaches from the West Coast.
For the overnight period, expect mostly clear skies as the upper ridge shifts over the region.
1106 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Strong upper ridge over the middle of the country will keep the area dry for the rest of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. The high pressure that's currently moving through will shift to the east of the area by tomorrow.
North of I-94, temperatures remain in the lower to middle 70s. South of I-94, temperatures have pushed into the lower 80s. The other factor at play is a deep sharp ridge axis emanating from the deep south which extends well into south- central Canada today. This ridge will steadily shift eastward through tomorrow, placing itself across then just to the east of the WFO MPX coverage area through Sunday night. As this ridge moves east, it will pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture on its western fringes and drag it well north into the Upper Midwest.
An upper level trough will continue showers through Sunday night.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s under clear skies and light winds tonight. Surface analysis places a ridge of high pressure centered over Southwest Missouri this afternoon.
/issued 308 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ Thickness ridging will allow tomorrow to be hot with highs reaching into the low/mid 90s area wide. Upper ridging will be kicked to the east tomorrow as an upper trough digs along the west coast. Overall chances for convection will be low tomorrow evening/night as dewpoints are only expected to, at best, recover into the low 50s.
The clearing trend was on a slower trend, given strong daytime heating occurring in a cooler but still moist environment has resulted in scattered post system clouds forming immediately to the north of the so-called clearing line. The cooler air moving in has resulted in slightly cooler conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with high temperatures so far only in the low/mid 70s. Cool conditions are expected, with lows falling into the low/mid 50s with light winds. Upper level blocking situated across the north Atlantic make for slow eastward moving of upper ridging from the central CONUS to the eastern states. High temperatures to start a new week will rise into the lower 80s (a spot seeing 84 to 85 possible) with light east to southeast winds.
Meanwhile, a series of weak lows were located over the Great Lakes region with tail end of attendant trough axis near a VYS-DVN line at 19z. Along and north of this axis NW winds were gusting to near 20-25 kts at times within deeper mixing post troughing and abundant sunshine. High pressure will continue to remain the dominant feature through Mother's Day as it gradually exits the region to the east.
High pressure over the middle Mississippi valley will bring dry and warmer weather next few days as it moves east across Kentucky and Tennessee. A very warm and moist southerly flow will develop by mid week as an area of low pressure and frontal system moves into the great plains and upper midwest. Models indicate a better chance of thunderstorms after midweek as a couple of upper disturbances eject out of the western upper trough. Tweaked temperatures slightly cooler some areas tonight. High pressure will dominate our weather as it moves east across Kentucky and Tennessee.
1005 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will build east across NC tonight and Sunday.
The HRRR suggests the Cheyenne and Palmer divides and Pine Ridge will be the genesis for isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon and this evening.
615 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Strong upper ridge over the middle of the country will keep the area dry for the rest of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. The high pressure that's currently moving through will shift to the east of the area by tomorrow.
843 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A trough is moving across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. Otherwise, the trough will advance on the Florida Keys arriving around sunrise. Will keep the likely chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms due to ample large scale lifting accompanying the trough. A weak trough will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and near the Florida Keys just after sunrise on Sunday.
951 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure returns and prevails for most of the upcoming week. Upper trough is still to the west and will take a few more hours to pivot through. At the surface, a cold front will be far offshore Sunday morning and high pressure will build across the Southeastern United States in its wake.
Also, with rain wetting and a weakening frontal trough sagging into northern sections, there could be some stratus and patchy fog that may develop late, but don't have enough confidence to include in the TAFs quite yet.
1152 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the nations mid section will remain the dominate weather feature in the short term. A weak wave will temporarily flatten the ridge top tonight.