Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/NEW/ Update: Much of the latest high res guidance continues to indicate scattered showers and storms developing early this afternoon which is currently represented with the low chance PoPs in the forecast. Outflow from the storms lowered temperatures into the 70s in a few spots but most locations were still in the lower 80s late this evening. Hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday with North and Central Texas remaining under the influence of a high amplitude ridge centered across the Central Plains. Daytime heating and moisture along with subtle easterly ripples on the southern periphery of the upper ridge will result in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The high pressure center is progged to sink southward on Sunday which will increase large scale subsidence and decrease precipitation chances.
Highs should still range from the upper-70s across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky to the low-to-mid 80s near the Tennessee border. Not only will afternoon temperatures be nearly 15 degrees cooler than the last several days, but around 5 degrees cooler than normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows by tomorrow morning will be in the low/mid 50s with some of our more urban areas staying near 60 degrees.
Locally heavy rain a concern for the first time, especially if we get some training characteristics associated with the southwesterly flow on the southeastern flank of the west coast trough. Some drying trying to edge in from the west Sunday as the trough lifts into the northern plains, however most of our area should still see a decent chance of thunderstorms. A broad southerly circulation around strong high pressure downstream should keep a generally favorable thunderstorm flow for SE AZ even if western areas try to dry out (considering how early we are in the season).
If anything, it appears the James Valley area may see the highest heat indices for the longest period of time, so possibly a localized upgrade is needed? Bottom line is it will be hot both today and tomorrow, with heat indices from 100 to as high as 110 at times. Upper level ridging will have begun to slide east of the region Sunday night, with a more southwesterly flow setting up ahead of an approaching trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move in over portions of northern Humboldt and Elko Counties by this afternoon, otherwise dry today with temperatures trending cooler.
625 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Saturday through Sunday) The next 36 hours will remain warmer than normal, even with daytime chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The loss of daytime heating will gradually eliminate remaining convection, however, temperatures will only fall toward a minimum in the mid-70s overnight with dew points in the lower 70s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 90s across southern Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and southeast Oklahoma to the upper 90s across deep east Texas.
AM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A deep trough along the West Coast will bring a cooler day today and breezy west winds this afternoon, strongest in the mountains and deserts.
A cold front is currently dropping south across TN this morning and will continue to push through the forecast area through the day.
640 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry and cooler weather through the weekend.
Higher up in the atmosphere, mid-level water vapor imagery shows the Keys nestled between troughs located to the north and south. While this morning's sounding is somewhat dry, cyclonic flow brought along by the previously mentioned troughs and daytime heating brings another chance at a cloudline developing late this morning and into the afternoon bringing showers and possibly some waterspouts.
(Saturday through Sunday) The next 36 hours will remain warmer than normal, even with daytime chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The loss of daytime heating will gradually eliminate remaining convection, however, temperatures will only fall toward a minimum in the mid-70s overnight with dew points in the lower 70s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 90s across southern Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and southeast Oklahoma to the upper 90s across deep east Texas.
619 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Much cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity will continue through the weekend under a gusty northwest flow ahead of a large area of high pressure that was centered over the north shore of Lake Superior this morning.
513 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Cooler and less humid weather will be in store for today.
High pressure centered north of the Minnesota Arrowhead, with ridging extending south into the Midwest, was providing quiet and comfortable night for eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. [Key Messages] 1) Warm and dry through the weekend with high pressure in control [Discussion] High pressure will be the rule for the weekend, and will provide our area with dry conditions and clear skies.
This moisture is being pulled north between a low pressure system currently positioned over northern California and a upper level high pressure system centered over eastern Kansas this morning. This is due to the low pressure system currently over northern California. SPC has our area in a Marginal Risk for severe Thunderstorms Sunday with the moisture surging east ahead of that low pressure system.
A trough will be over the area today for cooler weather and showers.
523 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A cold front will move across the area this morning. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend.
An upper level trough was over northern California with the downstream ridge axis over the eastern Dakotas. Over central North Dakota tonight, lows only fall into the lower to mid 70s. Cooler air will move into western ND with highs expected to be mainly in the 80s.
631 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Much cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity will continue through the weekend under a gusty northwest flow ahead of a large area of high pressure that was centered over the north shore of Lake Superior this morning.
Forecast is on track with high pressure and northerly flow resulting in a cooler, more seasonable day with dry weather and a very dry airmass arriving across the region. A ridge is centered over KS/MO today and tonight. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Great Lakes, bringing northeasterly winds over the region. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the 80s in the Valley.
As the trough and frontal boundary shift southward, forecast PW will rise from the 1. This will lead to the highest coverage of showers and storms seen all week, with an atypical development pattern. Temps at 500mb dropped to -10C which is a bit cooler than forecast soundings suggested, so confidence has increased in the potential for sustainable strong storms.
438 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Upper ridge currently sits over the central CONUS, while at the surface, low pressure sits over the WY/NE border. The heat continues Sunday, though slightly cooler than today, with only Todd and Mellette counties continuing a heat advisory.
A cold front will push southward today, through Central Alabama and to the Gulf coast by this evening. This will bring drier, but not cooler, air to the area.
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Today) A subtle weakness in the upper ridge, along with a weak backdoor front will likely lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Initial development should be near the higher terrain of W AR and far E OK, with modest amount of organization into west moving clusters possible through early evening.
Outflow from the storms lowered temperatures into the 70s in a few spots but most locations were still in the lower 80s late this evening. Hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday with North and Central Texas remaining under the influence of a high amplitude ridge centered across the Central Plains. Daytime heating and moisture along with subtle easterly ripples on the southern periphery of the upper ridge will result in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The high pressure center is progged to sink southward on Sunday which will increase large scale subsidence and decrease precipitation chances.
916 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure will build across the area through Sunday.
534 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 The midlevel blocking pattern will begin to break down during the next 36 hours, as the PacNW trough finally shifts east. The first change will be a decrease in temperatures on Saturday, with the core of the heat ridge pushing east, and more cloud cover overspreading the region.
Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large 593dam high centered over the central CONUS and a broad upper level trough centered over the eastern seaboard. This upper level trough was helping support a weak and nearly diffuse cold front to our northeast that will sag into our CWA during prime heating as a backdoor cold front and help set off at least isolated storms. Drier air in the wake of the backdoor cold front will knock dew points down into the 60s tonight with mid to upper 50 dew points in our northeast by morning. This will help contribute to cooler than normal morning lows in the mid 60s across the northeast third of our CWA.
Winds begin to subside on Sunday, leaving us with cooler and calmer conditions. Another area to watch for gusty winds will be the eastern slopes of the Sierra and Owens Valley, as the base of the trough pivots through.
/issued 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with a monsoonal fetch advecting northward over the Rocky Mountain range as a potent mid/upper-level cyclone digs into the Pacific Northwest. 700-300 mb winds near 10 kt) over the CWA as the center of the anticyclone remains parked over the middle Missouri River Valley. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft in advance of an upper low moving over the Great Basin will begin to decrease PWAT values and shift low rain chances eastward.
407 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 The midlevel blocking pattern will begin to break down during the next 36 hours, as the PacNW trough finally shifts east. The first change will be a decrease in temperatures on Saturday, with the core of the heat ridge pushing east, and more cloud cover overspreading the region.
530 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Water vapor imagery highlights a large, long amplitude mean layer ridge over the central United States. A small mid to upper level cyclone is centered near Andros, amplifying a narrow current of northwesterlies across the Keys. The surface gradient is weak across South Florida and the Keys, although a narrow ridge axis survives across central Florida. Temperatures range from 75 to 84, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
Updated the morning forecast to account for more coverage of rainfall across the lower Valley. Advertised weak inverted trough has provided the ample moisture as well, with this morning's sounding featuring nearly 2 inches of precipitable water in east Brownsville. Full sunshine will return to the lower Valley by early afternoon with little more than patchy cumulus clouds and the beaches will feature plenty of sunshine for the remainder of the day as the typical marine layer stability takes over.
502 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Much cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity will continue through the weekend under a gusty northwest flow ahead of a large area of high pressure that was centered over the north shore of Lake Superior this morning.
Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate as upper level high pressure dominates. Tonight through Sunday night Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning remains highly amplified with deep troughs along both the east and west coasts and the seemingly ever persistent, stout upper level high sitting over the central plains. Models are showing some short term relief on Sunday as a slightly drier and cooler air mass moves into the area. A weak backdoor cold front, and I use the term cold front loosely, is expected to move from the northeast to the southwest during the day today. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a few degrees cooler Sunday but the noticeable difference will be in the humidity.
1054 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry and cooler weather through the weekend.
As this system moves out, skies will clear by afternoon over the entire region with upper level decent and building high pressure. High pressure will continue building for the daytime on Sunday.
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Sufficient moisture and slightly cooler mid level temperatures, associated with weakness in upper ridge (weak wave/PV anomaly over southeast Oklahoma evident on shorter wavelength water vapor imagery this morning) will likely result in isolated thunderstorm activity across southern Oklahoma and northern this afternoon and evening. With the additional cloud cover possible, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday at many locations. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower and middle 70s at most locations.
Not only will afternoon temperatures be nearly 15 degrees cooler than the last several days, but around 5 degrees cooler than normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows by tomorrow morning will be in the low/mid 50s with some of our more urban areas staying near 60 degrees.
Satellite imagery shows the upper low closing off over far northern California.
624 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure will build across the area through Sunday.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (The rest of today ) A weak cold frontal boundary is currently moving from the northeast to the southwest across central Missouri and will continue to make progress toward our area into the afternoon hours. Weak shear underneath the upper ridge will cause storms to mostly remain weakly organized with the potential for some multicell cluster development along outflow boundaries.
Forecast is on track with high pressure and northerly flow resulting in a cooler, more seasonable day with dry weather and a very dry airmass arriving across the region. High pressure will result in VFR conditions through the period. A ridge is centered over KS/MO today and tonight. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Great Lakes, bringing northeasterly winds over the region. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the 80s in the Valley.
which range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid/upper 90s for most of the Valley, and around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains. the weak 500 mb disturbance that created a short-lived inverted trough will be well west of the region, with a pocket of atmospheric dry air sliding across from the southern/central Gulf.
(The rest of today ) A weak cold frontal boundary is currently moving from the northeast to the southwest across central Missouri and will continue to make progress toward our area into the afternoon hours. Weak shear underneath the upper ridge will cause storms to mostly remain weakly organized with the potential for some multicell cluster development along outflow boundaries.
344 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A Canadian high pressure system will settle south into the Ohio Valley this weekend, offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Warmer and more humid air will slowly build into the region by the beginning of the upcoming workweek, with hot and humid conditions expected once again by midweek. Mid level flow characterized by a strong ridge over the nations mid section and a mean trof over New England and the east coast. In much drier airmass temperatures to drop to lows from the upper 40s far northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
Most short and medium-range guidance shows 1000-850mb thicknesses being slightly greater across the region tomorrow afternoon, so will go a few degrees warmer on high temps compared to today.
132 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Much cooler than normal temperatures are forecast to continue today and then again tomorrow as a trough of low pressure keeps cool air in the area.
The upper level trough will move east and an upper level ridge builds back in and takes its place.
221 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure was found across the area this afternoon as easterly winds brought cooler and drier air from Lake Michigan. High pressure will continue to affect the area, A wind shift will stop the drier air from moving west from the Lake. The main challenge are the lows tonight. Dewpoints in the low 40s are advecting into the area. Have gone slightly cooler than previous forecast.
The upper ridge axis will shift east as a deep western CONUS trough shifts diffluent southwest upper flow across NE Montana.
If there is any signal there is a small chance for precipitation Sunday night with a warm front in the area.
An unseasonably strong upper level trough now over the west coast states will continue to move east slowly.
235 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry, cool weather through Sunday night.
1023 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Temperatures will not be quite as hot across much of North- Central and Southwestern Montana today as cooler air begins to push into the area. As this cooler air works in, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, a few of which may produce some gusty winds and hail.
1048 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge over TX/LA and northern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, the strong mid to upper level high pressure ridge over the Midwest to the Gulf coast prevails.
(Tonight) A cold front is slowly dropping south across TN this afternoon.
203 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Upper ridging continues across the central Great Plains. Deep southwest has increased over the CWA ahead of a Pac NW trough. Stronger forcing ahead of the approaching trough will bring better chances of storms.
Latest RAP forecast MLCAPE values look fairly marginal which should help limit intensity of potential rainfall, especially over the higher terrain and Mullen BurnScar area. The upper low will continue to slowly progress eastward with another chance for precipitation Sunday across the area.
However, some model guidance suggest gusty winds remaining overnight, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau.
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Sufficient moisture and slightly cooler mid level temperatures, associated with weakness in upper ridge (weak wave/PV anomaly over southeast Oklahoma evident on shorter wavelength water vapor imagery this morning) will likely result in isolated thunderstorm activity across southern Oklahoma and northern this afternoon and evening. With the additional cloud cover possible, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday at many locations. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower and middle 70s at most locations.
The sky will remain mostly clear over the region with subsidence via building high pressure. High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather through Sunday night, though high clouds will increase from the north and progressively thicken with a pronounced 250mb jet.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move in over portions of northern Humboldt and Elko Counties by this afternoon, otherwise dry today with temperatures trending cooler. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move in over portions of northern Humboldt and Elko Counties by this afternoon, otherwise dry today with temperatures trending cooler.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level disturbance/perturbation will rotate around the upper high across portions of the region this weekend. Despite the small glimmer of hope that some locations may get rain, the hot temperatures will continue into Sunday although some cloud cover over the area should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the last few days.
This will lead to increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: Large low pressure area will keep a showery airmass over the aviation area.
1030 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Upper ridge currently sits over the central CONUS, while at the surface, low pressure sits over the WY/NE border. The heat continues Sunday, though slightly cooler than today, with only Todd and Mellette counties continuing a heat advisory.
308 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A large area of high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. Much cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity will continue through the weekend under a gusty northwest wind.
(Thru Tonight) Low level moisture pooling in the lower Ark River valley ahead of a back-door front has yielded heat indices consistently 105F or better.
246 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Saturday through Sunday) The next 36 hours will remain warmer than normal, even with daytime chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The loss of daytime heating will gradually eliminate remaining convection, however, temperatures will only fall toward a minimum in the mid-70s overnight with dew points in the lower 70s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 90s across southern Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and southeast Oklahoma to the upper 90s across deep east Texas.
A cold front is expected to move across the state from NE to SW during the forecast period. All sites will become VFR into Saturday night and Sunday morning as the cold front traverses the state. Tonight through Sunday night Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning remains highly amplified with deep troughs along both the east and west coasts and the seemingly ever persistent, stout upper level high sitting over the central plains. Models are showing some short term relief on Sunday as a slightly drier and cooler air mass moves into the area. A weak backdoor cold front, and I use the term cold front loosely, is expected to move from the northeast to the southwest during the day today. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a few degrees cooler Sunday but the noticeable difference will be in the humidity.
345 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 It's HOT! Upper ridge centered near Springfield, Missouri with troughs along both coasts.
127 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure will build across the area through Sunday.
253 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Dry high pressure will bring a seasonally warm and pleasantly cooler and less humid weekend.
The deep trough will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather with showers and isolated thunderstorms in the mountains and northern Sacramento Valley. Ensemble guidance indicates the trough axis will move east into Nevada by tomorrow with ridging building into the Eastern Pacific.
Discussion: High pressure and northerly flow at the surface and aloft will result in subsidence, a dry airmass, and cooler temperatures.
Meanwhile, a warm front lifting northward could trigger a few showers or storms across the far north late tonight into Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be considerably warmer than last night with readings in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Sunday Night Through Saturday The upper-level weather pattern, with a blocking high pressure ridge over North America, will flatten and become zonal over Canada this week, while the ridging over the U.
224 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a large upper high centered over the central CONUS. This in turn was keeping a wide range in temperatures and dewpoints across the CWA despite full insolation, with near normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s over central Missouri near the front and below normal temperatures and dewpoints in the low 50s over south central IL in the ridge axis. Latest HREF is showing the center of the upper high moving east across Missouri and Illinois through Sunday night. With this low level flow, dewpoints should drop into the 50s across the area tonight through Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will climb back into the mid 80s with winds out of the southeast and 850mb temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than today.