Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A period of quiet and cold conditions are expected tonight into Sunday across the area, as high pressure slides east across southern Manitoba and Ontario Canada.
A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather dry over central California the next several days. A mid/upper level ridge establishes itself over California the next few days. Expect subsidence with a generally clear sky under this ridge with above normal temperatures.
Showers continue across portions of central Idaho this evening, though coverage is weakening quickly and steadily as ridging works to develop over the area.
Skies will become mostly clear overnight across the Central High Plains region in the wake of the upper trough sweeping into the plains states today. The upper pattern amplifies as another short wave trough tops the upper ridge in place over the western U. With temperatures remaining above freezing through the late afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of light rain stretching across the northern into the eastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday night, a cold front will move rapidly across the central plains. With temperatures close to freezing, there could be a mix of rain and snow.
Fortunately, high pressure nosing in from the north will keep winds fairly light through the period, limiting overall fire danger. Another night of freezing temperatures is anticipated Sunday night as skies clear off allowing valleys to decouple and drop off. Thus, the threat of freezing weather on early vegetation will continue over the next few nights. In general, a seasonally deep trough will take shape in the east, with ridging out west.
Overcast clouds and scattered light precip through the day has kept temperatures across the TN valley and plateau from reaching in the lower 40s. Areas in the higher elevations of east TN could see around 2-4 inches as slight NW mid level winds will keep upslope flow over east TN.
The 20z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure stretched from south-central Canada southeast through the Upper Midwest to the Mid-MS Valley. A couple of weak areas of low pressure were situated over the central Rockies. Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue across north-central WI (mainly Vilas County) tonight as trajectories remain favorable, delta-T values to be in the lower 20s and lake- induced CAPES push 500 J/KG.
In addition to the aforementioned low, afternoon surface analysis shows a remnant frontal boundary draped from the D/FW Metroplex to Palestine to Jasper with a second, stronger cold front pushing south across the Red River.
As an upper trough axis moves towards the area, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more widespread this evening both from the south and the north as the 850 mb cold front approaches. The passage of the upper trough axis and a slight amplification of northwesterly flow aloft should help to push the front quickly through the region tonight.
Thermal profile initially supportive of rain,sleet or freezing rain across portions of nw AR.
Cooler air from the back door front will continue across the eastern plains before seeping into the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Temperatures across the eastern plains will take on a yo-yo affect the next couple of days because of a series of back door cold fronts through midweek. Isolated activity is still imminent to develop as the back door cold front reaches moist prone areas but any severe possibilities will be south of our CWA.
1234 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and cold airmass will remain in place across the area through the weekend.
Widespread temps in the lower to mid 80s is being observed with even some upper 80s across far SW Florida. Increased cloud cover and shower chances will keep temps a few degrees cooler tomorrow compared to what we saw today.
Main concern for this period outside of the low clouds to start, will be the windy conditions tomorrow afternoon. /Issued 416 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ A generally benign weather pattern is in store for the Panhandles as upper ridging builds in the southwest US early this week and the area remains in predominately northwest flow aloft.
Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front to the east of the Hill Country and a cold front to the north. Later tonight into the overnight hours, these two system are likely to become one system (weak cold front) as it pushes across the area.
Temperatures are expected to drop well below freezing late tonight, so slick spots may develop, especially on elevated surfaces. A freeze warning will remain in effect for those who may be unaware, yet need to know that freezing temperature could hurt plants. Any travel problems will improve quickly Sunday as sunshine helps warm temps above freezing by mid morning.
continues to be between a departing low pressure system and approaching high pressure system through this time period. The pressure gradient between the two will be continue to be fairly tight this morning over the east half before gradually weakening throughout the day as the high pressure system slowly approaches. Heavy freezing spray is expected over much of the lake through late this evening. Otherwise, no gales or heavy freezing spray is expected beyond that period. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ266- 267.
This will change however by mid-evening, with MVFR cigs expected to develop/spread SSW across the remainder of E TX as a reinforcement of cooler air begins to spread S across the region. As an upper trough axis moves towards the area, showers and isolated thunderstorms should become more widespread this evening both from the south and the north as the 850 mb cold front approaches. The passage of the upper trough axis and a slight amplification of northwesterly flow aloft should help to push the front quickly through the region tonight.
650 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure with arctic air into Sunday.
Some areas of drizzle are indicated mainly east of KLBB though any aviation impacts (where the OAT remains above freezing) are expected to be low. Have pulled mentioned of thunder out of the grids as the cold front has cleared the forecast area. /issued 254 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ The cold front is currently marching its way through the region at a rapid rate.
A cold day in store with highs in the low to mid 30s which is below normal highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Will be a chilly day, with afternoon highs only topping out in the lower to middle 30s. Canadian high pressure will provide cool/dry weather on Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A trough of low pressure was evident just offshore of the Southern Texas Gulf Coast. Expanding out from the Southeast, a large ridge of high pressure (1043 mb) was building down the Northern Plains. The surface chart this evening is more comparable to a weather pattern more typical of late Jan-early Feb than mid March and there's much cooler weather on the way in the days ahead.
Low pressure will move from eastern Montana into central South Dakota by 12z Sun.
An upper level ridge builds starting tonight as a weak upper level wave moves well to the east. in the 60s and 70s in the lower valleys and upper 50s to lower 60s in the Sierra valleys.
A cold front will move through the region late tonight into early Sunday morning, bringing moderate gusty northeast winds.
Temperatures across the area were in the lower to mid 40s and will likely be steady for the next few hours. 00Z TAF discussion: Expect rather widespread MVFR ceilings tonight as bands of showers spread through the region from west to east along and north of a cold front gradually sinking toward the coast. Winds will be somewhat gusty from the north and northeast, although these gusty north winds may take a little while to build into PIB/HBG as the cold front still needs to push south of those sites.
Winds will drop off Sunday afternoon behind a cold front. Cool Sunday night with a bit of a reinforcing push of cooler air dropping down the plains and just clipping the eastern CWA.
Low pressure along the Southeast Texas coast will make its way across the Northern Gulf tonight into Sunday with cool and cloudy conditions across much of Central Alabama today. With some cooler air moving in as well, we may mix in some snow or sleet pellets with the rain before things end in the north (top tier of counties). However, at the same time, our column is drying from aloft to the lower levels leaving only a small time/area window when there will be enough moisture and a cool enough airmass to see a wintry mix. Warmer conditions are expected for Sunday as the system moves through, precipitation ends, and clouds decrease.
949 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Increasing ascent expected to occur tonight as a mid to upper level trough approaches the area from the west. Scattered showers expected to break out over the coastal waters in the vicinity of currently diffuse warm frontal boundary extending near our southern marine zones based on analysis of dewpoint and instability fields. Low temps generally in the lower to mid 50s tonight. Winds and seas briefly relax tonight as pres gradient become loose and weak low pressure tries to form about 20-60 nm out. The low pressure will move east and southeast Sunday and drag a cold front back south again with a rapid increase in winds to 20-25 kt.
A cold front with strong and gusty northeast winds will push through the area this evening.
with the highest probability for snow at KCHA and KTYS.
The low is expected to move east southeast and dissipate through early Sunday. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s across the north to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Sunday will be much cooler in the upper 50s and low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast.
Models continue to suggest freezing rain developing for a brief period this evening along roughly a Shelby- to-Fort Benton line and extending southeast through northern Fergus County (i. There remains the chance that some freezing rain makes it to the Interstate 15 corridor south of Shelby to near Great Falls and extending east along the US 87 between Great Falls and Lewistown. Temperatures should moderate slowly through the evening in most locations on the Plains as a surface warm front tries to push north and east. However, winds will become northerly and easterly again after midnight as a cold front drops south through the plains region. A mostly tranquil day is in store for Sunday in the wake of the cold front with continued below normal temperatures over the Plains.
1141 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Impressive jet from the northern plains to the lower Great Lakes included a 130 knot wind max on the 00Z KMPX upper air sounding. High pressure centered in the northern prairie provinces with a ridge extending into the midwest will continue bringing north to northeast winds to MN/WI, and low level moisture will remain scant until the high pressure ridge moves far enough east, which will not take place until Sunday. With continued cold advection today, temperatures will be cooler than normal, something we have not seen too often this winter.
932 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 A ridge of cold high pressure continues to build into the southern Plains this evening.
Fortunately, high pressure nosing in from the north will keep winds fairly light through the period, limiting overall fire danger. Another night of freezing temperatures is anticipated Sunday night as skies clear off allowing valleys to decouple and drop off. Thus, the threat of freezing weather on early vegetation will continue over the next few nights. A significant mid/upper level trough will dive southeast over the eastern CONUS early in the period.
Ahead of it there will be some high cloudiness, but low/mid level moisture looks to be mainly along and behind the trough. Minimum temperatures will be cooler following the cold front, yet still slightly above average for this time of year.
Highs in the low to mid 30s expected. This high will sink into the Gulf as a weak cool front arrives here Fri. Recovery back to normal Wed then much warmer than normal Thu. The low clouds that were expected this morning have not materialized and have only kept a scattered deck in the TAF as some of the guidance indicates it's still possible. Included a scattered MVFR deck at KGRI while putting it as the prevailing conditions at KEAR with the better chances for the lower clouds over western portions of south central Nebraska.
Low pressure will be sliding southeast from the Northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday night.
Strong 1045 mb arctic high pressure over western Manitoba and ridging into the MS river valley will ridge into the Ohio valley by Sunday afternoon, and continue dry wx over central IL on Sunday.
A cold front continues to drop south through west Texas this evening with thunderstorms developing along and behind it. However, will leave the High Wind Warning in effect for Guadalupe Pass since surface pressure rises/cold air advection will likely keep funneled wind speeds of 40-50 mph going overnight.
625 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to spread southeast over the lakes through Sunday.
356 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) Cold front has already entered our northern counties and should reach the Abilene area by 5 pm or so. expect the cold front to continue to push southward, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing along the front as it moves into a slightly more unstable airmass. Will see cooler highs tomorrow, generally in the 50s. This will result in pressure falls to our north, and turn winds quickly around to the south for our area, bringing moisture and warmer overnight temperatures to our area.
Latest satellite imagery is showing some high clouds mostly moving southeast away from the forecast area along with some minor cumulus build-ups across the higher terrain of southern Cochise County due to slightly elevated mid level moisture values. Thus, have gone ahead and removed mention of sprinkles across the higher terrain of Cochise County into this evening. A surface backdoor cold front will move westward to far eastern Cochise County before stalling early Sunday morning.
1228 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure with chilly arctic air into Sunday.
The question is precipitation with the associated warm front Sunday.
1018 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and a cold, dry airmass will remain over the region tonight through Sunday.
Winds will also increase and become gusty as low pressure moves through the gulf.
The main weather concern this forecast period is a cold front that will make its way into the area after 12/0000z. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are possible in association with this approaching cold front later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Sunday should be much cooler with much below normal temperatures behind the front with considerable cloudiness expected.
VFR is expected tonight until the passage of a cold front a few hours prior to sunrise Sunday morning, which will bring lower cloud decks and the opportunity for rainfall at that time. After sunset, precip chances for the Lower RGV will be reduced even more. Although lingering chances will be possible across the Northern Ranchlands and Northern Coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Even so, with moisture values still high in the lower levels, showers and maybe isolated rumble of thunder will be possible. High temperatures will be noticeably lower as breezy north winds usher in a cooler and drier airmass.
357 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and a cold, dry airmass will remain over the region tonight through Sunday.
254 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 The cold front is currently marching its way through the region at a rapid rate.
Ahead of the wind shift, there is potential for some fog, and any light precipitation that develops could be in the form of freezing rain. Soundings around Miles City and Baker show a chance for some freezing drizzle. As it exits the area tomorrow afternoon winds across southeastern Montana will get a bit gusty during the afternoon, but should quickly decrease once the low moves out.
As a cold front moves, from north to south, overnight, stratus will develop behind the front and produce MVFR to IFR ceilings. /issued 356 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Cold front has already entered our northern counties and should reach the Abilene area by 5 pm or so. expect the cold front to continue to push southward, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing along the front as it moves into a slightly more unstable airmass. Will see cooler highs tomorrow, generally in the 50s. This will result in pressure falls to our north, and turn winds quickly around to the south for our area, bringing moisture and warmer overnight temperatures to our area.
956 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to spread southeast over the lakes through Sunday.
305 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to spread southeast over the lakes through Sunday.
Dry weather conditions along with a warming trend will continue into early in the upcoming workweek as high pressure dominates the weather pattern.
A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, with winds turning to a northerly direction. Overnight this boundary will push further south as a cold front, as the upper level trough axis dips southeast across the states. Anticipate cooler temperatures Sunday as cooler air moves into the region, with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s area wide.
A ridge of high pressure will give way to an incoming storm system that will increase clouds and showers to the region today.
1032 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Under partly cloudy skies with a light breeze varying between northeast and east, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s.
950 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure with arctic air into Sunday.
1141 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to spread southeast over the lakes through Sunday.
As temperatures continue to fall this afternoon, rain may mix with freezing rain, sleet or even change to snow in parts of northwest AR later this afternoon an evening. Thermal profile initially supportive of rain,sleet or freezing rain across portions of nw AR.
Skies are then expected to clear out tonight as high pressure builds into the region. By Sunday afternoon, high pressure will shift east of the area and warmer air will begin to advect back into the area.
Cold front to arrive around 09 or 10Z over the area may briefly enhance precipitation, but models show a downward trend in qpf as we get closer to daybreak. Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front to the east of the Hill Country and a cold front to the north. Later tonight into the overnight hours, these two system are likely to become one system (weak cold front) as it pushes across the area.
cold air continues to push into the region and overnight lows will once again fall below freezing across most locations. The higher elevations of the east TN mountains could see 2 to 4 inches. A snow advisory is in effect for the southern areas and the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 51 35 48 / 80 20 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 48 31 46 / 70 20 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 28 50 31 47 / 60 20 0 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 48 23 47 / 60 20 10 60 NC.
This systems warm front may spread some light rain onshore later Sunday but primarily over the Olympic Peninsula though it cannot be ruled out elsewhere.
529 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Low pressure moving along the gulf coast at this time will keep east to northeast winds across the terminals through the night.
Essentially no changes to the precip forecast, keeping ~90% for most of the area the next 6 hours, diminishing from NW to SE as the surface wave moves east and cooler/drier air filters from the north. Winds will also increase and become gusty as low pressure moves through the gulf.
No significant changes to the forecast this morning as dry and quiet weather continues over the region due to the large scale ridge off the California coast continues to dominate the weather patern.
807 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Week warm front extended from low pressure in north central Gulf of Mexico through far South Florida. Surface dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 50s north of the front and the low to mid 60s to the south.
Ridging overhead has sent temperatures to 10-15F above normal today.
Tonight and Sunday: Wet into Sunday morning with cooler than normal temperatures through Sunday night. At mid afternoon, surface analysis had a 1040mb high over the northern plains ridging south across the Gulf coast states. The associated caa was helping to hold much of the CWA in the 40s and 50s this afternoon but warmer than normal temperatures were still being observed across our highway 84 corridor. The cooler air will push south through the remainder of our CWA tonight.
Cold front still on track to approach the ABI area around 22Z and SJT by 02Z, with a line of showers and thunderstorms possible. A cold front will move across the terminals late this afternoon and evening, with FROPA at KABI around 23Z, KSJT around 02Z and far southern terminals between 05-06Z. /issued 447 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A warm front currently extends across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning and will lift a little farther north through early afternoon. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will follow behind the front but winds will gradually diminish towards daybreak Sunday.
Low amplitude ridging extended from southern Idaho into southeastern British Columbia. Further east, closed low pressure was noted over eastern Quebec with a trough extending south into New England. At the surface, arctic high pressure was located over southern Manitoba and has forced a cold front through most of the plains and west against the front range of the Rockies. This front has shown signs of pushing east as a warm front as warmer air has pushed into northeastern Colorado and the southwestern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon. Arctic high pressure, currently over southern Manitoba, will slid east into western Ontario tonight. A warm front will push through the forecast area tonight, ending up in eastern Nebraska by Sunday morning. Clouds, and a shift in the winds behind the exiting warm front, will lead to lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Winds will then pick up Sunday morning behind a cold front, with some gusts between 20 and 25 knots at ALI/CRP/VCT. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, with winds turning to a northerly direction. Overnight this boundary will push further south as a cold front, as the upper level trough axis dips southeast across the states. Anticipate cooler temperatures Sunday as cooler air moves into the region, with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s area wide.
1240 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend bringing unusually cold air for mid March.
638 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and a cold, dry airmass will remain over the region tonight through Sunday.
The update is to also include a little more snow amounts as temperatures are remaining a few degrees cooler through the morning than previously expected, which has also delayed the change over from snow to liquid precip. Precipitation type predominately snow but there could be some freezing rain and/or ice pellets mixed in, generally in Yuma county and parts of Dundy county Nebraska through 15z. High temperatures in the low to upper 60s.
Think some locations, especially in northern Oklahoma, will have no problem falling below freezing, 32 degrees. Went towards model guidance highs mainly in the 50s, but readings could be several degrees warmer than currently forecast if clouds erode rapidly and allow for a considerable amount of sunshine.
Severe weather does not look to be a concern as wind shear values are quite low at less than 30 knots in the lowest 6km of the atmosphere.
416 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 A generally benign weather pattern is in store for the Panhandles as upper ridging builds in the southwest US early this week and the area remains in predominately northwest flow aloft.