Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very warm lower and mid tropospheric airmass is in place south of the cold front that will be sagging southward through the area tonight. The dominate feature though is large high pressure dome in control over the western and central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended along the ND/Canadian border. Models seem to be in rather good agreement the aforementioned cold front currently to the north will drift southward through the Dakotas and reach the northern CWA early this evening.
The high level smoke from the western US and Canadian fires will inhibit full solar insolation so high temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler than model guidance.
310 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the period. NListemaa A fairly quiet start to the work week can be expected as an upr ridge of high pressure influences weather from Georgia to Virginia. The ridge will gradually break down as a tropical disturbance approaches the western GoM / Texas coast while another tropical wave east of the Bahamas drifts west toward Florida.
1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Upper low was pushing across southern Canada this morning. Position of the low was creating mid level downslope flow, which was limiting precipitation potential. Another lobe of energy will rotate around the low for some forcing this afternoon, so will leave PoPs in. Sunday will be fairly quiet, with temperatures climbing into the low 80s.
For later tonight, a weak cold front will be dropping southward from late evening through after midnight with a brief wind shift to northerly. This will usher in some slightly cooler air for Sunday.
225 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure and drier air will spread across the region through the weekend with dry and seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend. So overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. Upper ridging will strengthen over the area with temperatures climbing with highs once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
1211 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. Southerly flow will bring warmer air into the area, which should allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Quiet weather continues into tonight as upper level ridging builds into the area from the west. Overnight temperatures are expected to lower into the upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. A high pressure system will slowly slide eastward across the area over the weekend and into the next work week. Ridge continues to hold across eastern U.
203 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Upper low over southwest Saskatchewan was moving east and providing a cooler day today. Sunday will see similar temperatures to today with a flat ridge in place. Heights will lower Sunday night as a trough moves through southwest Canada, increasing clouds and ascent.
201 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Weak ridging overhead continues to flatten across much of western and central North Dakota as a compact wave approaches. So, maybe a few upper 30s or lower 40s possible southwest? Weak and transient ridging tries to nudge in once again through the day on Sunday with some lingering cloud cover north. Otherwise, expect a pleasant day with generally light winds and highs in the lower 60s across the Turtle Mountains to the upper 70s southwest. The weak ridge axis will move overhead Sunday night, bringing with it warmer low temperatures and increased cloud cover.
A general flow pattern will evolve to onshore during Sun as high pressure becomes established north of the general area. Mid-term period starts with the Atlantic high pressure draped across Florida with the ridge axis north of Florida through the southeastern US. (Modified from previous discussion) The Atlantic high pressure remains north of the forecast area, continuing onshore easterly winds and moderate precip chances for east central Florida.
Temperatures are on trend to rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A couple of mid-level clouds are possible throughout the day, but high pressure reigns.
111 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Water vapor shows upper low along the MT/Canadian border with decent moisture plume extending into the low from the Desert SW. Instability remains fairly limited this afternoon, but with continued heating there may be a few storms that develop closer to the cold front from northeast WY into southwest SD.
An upper level ridge currently centered over central New Mexico will begin to lose amplitude tonight and tomorrow in response to a short waves moving across southern Canada into the northern CONUS. The upper level ridge axis will remain to our north tomorrow. Stout upper ridge weakens late in the weekend with plenty of energy moving through westerlies across the northern half of the nation.
1146 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Hazy sunshine expected again today with plenty of elevated smoke trapped on eastern periphery of NM centered upper level ridge. Lee troughing will also be in play with increasing cross-mountain flow increasing ahead of upstream NW U. trough.
326 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather over the weekend.
1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge of high pressure remains the dominant weather story in the short term.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: In advance of an approaching low pressure trough from the northwest today, scattered light rain showers are already spreading through most northeast Montana locations early this morning. After sunrise, the main piece of energy and the upper level trough axis will sweep through central Montana. Sunday, brief weak upper level ridging will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures.
the only difference between yesterday and today is that we'll be a couple of degrees warmer today.
1137 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Upper level ridging continues to build across the region today. In the meantime, west to southwest low level jet is still progged to advect in warmer 850mb temps, between 20 and 25C today. Little change on Sunday with another well above normal day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Thus dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, so do not expect excessive heat and humidity through the weekend.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A rather benign short term is on tap, as upper-level ridging persists. Thicknesses today look to be similar to yesterday's, as the ridge won't move much over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Similar conditions are anticipated Sunday night, but an increase in low-level moisture should keep mins a few degrees warmer than tonight's. Rain chances look slim-to-none under the ridge, and bone-dry CAMs agree.
Warming trend begins today for interior Northern California as high pressure returns. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the Valley.
Humidity levels still remain rather comfortable, with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Expect low temperatures to fall into the lower 60s areawide.
Mid level ridge will begin to weaken and flatten some overnight in response to several trofs traversing the Northern CONUS.
We may see some activity develop near and north of that (perhaps into the southern Twin Cities metro) late tonight as the low-level jet strengthens a bit in response to the upper trough (currently evident on water vapor near the Montana/Canada border) which will move by to our north late tonight into Sunday.
1041 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. Temperatures today will rise to around normal in the upper 70s to 80s across the lowlands this afternoon and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected across the lowlands with a few areas potentially reaching into the lower 90s. The mountains will have temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s.
Also adjusted temperatures slightly overnight cooling temperatures in some of the typical cooler locations like Meacham and Seneca.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ The very first chances of rain in a while for parts of the Ark-La- Tex are set to arrive within the next 36 hours as upper-level ridging over the southern Rocky Mountains finally breaks down and Atlantic Basin surface ridging to our east strengthens. But first, we have one more night of lows in the low 60s with dew points still in the upper 50s. Dew points will continue to increase above the 70-degree mark area wide, boosting low temperatures into the lower 70s. Southeasterly flow around the western periphery of the Atlantic Basin ridge will continue to be the trend as the work week begins.
Weak ridging overhead continues to flatten across much of western and central North Dakota as a compact wave approaches. So, maybe a few upper 30s or lower 40s possible southwest? Weak and transient ridging tries to nudge in once again through the day on Sunday with some lingering cloud cover north. Otherwise, expect a pleasant day with generally light winds and highs in the lower 60s across the Turtle Mountains to the upper 70s southwest. The weak ridge axis will move overhead Sunday night, bringing with it warmer low temperatures and increased cloud cover.
More widespread rain is likely with a mid-week cold front. Broad high pressure over the central CONUS will maintain dry weather for most of the Upr OH Valley Region today. The caveat will be over the I 80 corridor where isolated to scattered showers remain a possibility due to the encroachment of a cold front from digging low pressure over Quebec.
A weak trough/boundary is expected to drop south tonight and may bring a period of gusty winds across the plains, but will provide cooler temps on Sunday.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: In advance of an approaching low pressure trough from the northwest today, scattered light rain showers are already spreading through most northeast Montana locations early this morning. After sunrise, the main piece of energy and the upper level trough axis will sweep through central Montana. Sunday, brief weak upper level ridging will bring dry weather and comfortable temperatures.
531 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 As expected, convection has broken out across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado in association with a weak cold front.
518 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Water vapor shows upper low along the MT/Canadian border with decent moisture plume extending into the low from the Desert SW. Instability remains fairly limited this afternoon, but with continued heating there may be a few storms that develop closer to the cold front from northeast WY into southwest SD.
/Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021/ An upper level high over the Southern High Plains this afternoon is expected to stretch out and weaken some from the the Arizona/New Mexico state line to the mid Atlantic states by late afternoon Sunday. The surface air in this area is pretty dry, so think if any convection develops it will stick close to the higher terrain. On Sunday, as the ridge weakens some, there is an outside chance that a thunderstorm could move into the western Oklahoma Panhandle from the Raton Mesa.
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure and drier air will spread across the region through the weekend with dry and seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend. High pressure will remain dominant over the region overnight as it slides to the coast. Radiational cooling conditions will again be excellent however with dewpoints are a couple degrees warmer than yesterday expect overnight lows to be slightly warmer with upper 50s to low 60s. Upper ridging will strengthen over the area with temperatures climbing with highs once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Temperatures behind it are a few degrees cooler and this was well accounted for in the current forecast. For later tonight, a weak cold front will be dropping southward from late evening through after midnight with a brief wind shift to northerly. This will usher in some slightly cooler air for Sunday.
In addition, due to the influence of the ridge, the warming trend will continue. Westerlies settle into the Great Lakes this weekend with mid level ridge stretching from the Southeast U.
This is because the ridge across the Atlantic is building and the ridge axis associated with this high is extending westward across south Florida. Having said all of this, despite the increase in moisture, we lack organized lift, thanks to the fact that we remain under a ridge.
Ridge that was situated over the Rockies slowly continues to break down, with upper level northwesterly flow shifting more westerly through the day. Under that ridge sits very warm temperatures, which have advected into our area today, leaving much of the area in the upper 80s to near 90. Quiet weather is expected tonight as the ridge to the west continues to break down. Temperatures will be warmer tonight than we have seen as of late, with upper 60s and 70s expected. The only difference is that we have a cold front progged to push through in the afternoon, which will shift our warm southwest wind to a "cooler" northerly wind. Effective warm front in area most of the week leads to periodic chances for rain and storms.
/Issued 310 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021/ High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the period. NListemaa A fairly quiet start to the work week can be expected as an upr ridge of high pressure influences weather from Georgia to Virginia. The ridge will gradually break down as a tropical disturbance approaches the western GoM / Texas coast while another tropical wave east of the Bahamas drifts west toward Florida.
740 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. Temperatures today will rise to around normal in the upper 70s to 80s across the lowlands this afternoon and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected across the lowlands with a few areas potentially reaching into the lower 90s. The mountains will have temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s.
619 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. Temperatures today will rise to around normal in the upper 70s to 80s across the lowlands this afternoon and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected across the lowlands with a few areas potentially reaching into the lower 90s. The mountains will have temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s.
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 As of 2pm, a cold front is evident on surface analysis just edging into northwestern portions of the forecast area. With relatively dry air in the low to mid-levels, I expect this activity to be pretty-high based and many locations will not receive anything measurable. The cold front will push through most of the area by Sunday morning, but confidence is increasing that it will stall out in our northern Kansas.
803 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Tranquil conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure in control of the weather. However, with dewpoints running a little bit higher than last night, don't think we'll be quite as cool -- with lows in the low to mid 60s being more common by early Sunday morning. With dry air advection still present in the mid to upper levels, expect another mostly sunny day with abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s. H5 high pressure will slide east from the Ozarks to the OH River Valley during this timeframe, and mid level winds will begin to shift to the south, at least temporarily.
As expected, convection has broken out across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado in association with a weak cold front.
756 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather over the weekend.
Even without any adjustments, Sunday highs in the low to mid 90s do not lead to excessive heat concerns due to limited moisture preventing heat index values from rising more than a degree or two above ambient temperatures.
An upper level ridge currently centered over central New Mexico will begin to lose amplitude tonight and tomorrow in response to a short wave moving across southern Canada into the northern CONUS. The upper level ridge axis will remain to our north tomorrow. Stout upper ridge weakens late in the weekend with plenty of energy moving through westerlies across the northern half of the nation.
For the rest of the night, winds will be light and variable with temps dropping to the lower to mid 70s.
While the 0-3 km shear would be favorable for damaging winds, this lowest 1 km is out of play due to an inversion. With 850 mb temperatures 4 to 8C cooler today and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s. On Monday, a warm front will lift northward toward the area as a cyclogenesis takes place over the eastern Dakotas. As the low level jet increases the moisture transport into the region, showers and storms will become more widespread across the area. In addition, maybe some damaging winds near and south of the warm front.
We will see general zonal flow across the midsouth Midweek with another ridge building across the eastern half of the nation during the end of the work week. Additionally, a cold front is expected to approach the Midsouth from the North Midweek. For now the weekend looks slightly warmer and drier.
313 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Pleasant late summer weather will continue across eastern KY today and Monday as high pressure off the coast and another weaker area of high pressure over the southern Appalachians remains in control. To our north, there is a frontal boundary that stretches from Nebraska to the northern OH valley and over to the northeast, with several areas of low pressure along the front. The flattening ridge covering much of the southern US will help keep this boundary well north of our area through Monday. Remaining mostly clear overnight with low temps in the low to mid 60s. Initially, we will see a large ridge of high pressure parked over the southeastern CONUS.
231 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Upper level ridging has flattened considerably over the past few days, with the main ridge axis now effectively spreading across the entire southern CONUS. The upper pattern will not change much during the short term, with an active northern wave train keeping flat upper ridging overhead through tonight.
The upper ridge will remain overhead through tonight, with breezy south to southwest winds through the period, more gusty during the afternoon hours today.
Deep layer ridging remains the main weather feature for one more day across Central Alabama, as ridging shifts eastward across the Tennesse Valley. An inverted trough across the northern Gulf will move northward today, aligning itself along the northwestern Gulf coast. Cannot rule out a few showers or storms this afternoon across the far south as activity associated with this trough moves northward. Monday, this trough moves northward toward the Tennessee Valley as low level winds become southerly.
304 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 An east/west frontal boundary south of the area, along with a broad trough, upper level jet is producing light showers and a thunderstorms, mainly along and south of Highway 14. Weak ridging develops later this evening over the western Dakota with some WAA as well. On Monday, an area of low pressure and associated warm front will track across the region, bringing widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. The convection associated with the warm front could push into western MN during the mid afternoon hours, with perhaps a few hours of heating possibly over the western CWA. If this happens, then the cold front may have enough instability and shear to produce a few strong storms. As of now, most models suggest mostly showers, and a few weak thunderstorms with the cold front.
Meanwhile, a surface front extended roughly from northern IA into low pressure centered in western KS.
Rainfall totals south of I-20 on Monday will depend on the evolution of an area of low pressure on the southern flank of the the trough in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
More widespread rain is likely with a mid- week cold front. Broad high pressure over the central CONUS will maintain dry weather for most of the Upr OH Valley Region today. The caveat will be over the I 80 corridor where isolated to scattered showers and storms remain a possibility due to the encroachment of a cold front from digging low pressure over Quebec.
404 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Quiet weather continues today through tomorrow as an upper level ridge remains in place over much of the southern CONUS.
1134 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper high flattening and becoming stretched from west to east over NM during the next 24 hrs due to an upper trough and strengthening wly winds aloft passing through the central Rockies.
A few clouds across w-central Idaho this evening riding the leading edge of an upper ridge. Sunday will be mostly sunny in the south and partly cloudy in the north, and several degrees warmer than today as the next weak Pacific trough comes inland. This trough will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to southern Twin Falls County late Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday night should be warmer than tonight under partly cloudy skies. Monday will be sunny and cooler as the weak upper trough passes through.
The NAM is suggesting stratus moves south across the area associated with a cold frontal passage. The GFS remains warmer at 850mb compared to the NAM/ECMWF/Canadian models and the NBM forecast highs in the low to mid 90s supports a blend of the better performing models over the past 5 days.
Today: Isolated light high based showers continue to track west to east along and north of the Highway 2 corridor early this morning near axis of mid level convergence/frontogensis as weak impulses progress through the region within zonal flow aloft. Monday-Monday night: A stronger trough in Canada moves eastward during these periods, and broad troughing/southwest flow opens the Northern Plains to at least a brief period of mid level moisture advection from monsoonal plumes in the southwest CONUS. There is some indication of a closing off of at the base of the trough in the 700 MB and more intense PVA, along with a mid level convergence zone related to the the more intense 700 MB feature that could act as regions of focus for mesoscale clusters/banding. mainly along and north of the Highway 2 corridor.
144 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. Temperatures today will rise to around normal in the upper 70s to 80s across the lowlands this afternoon and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected across the lowlands with a few areas potentially reaching into the lower 90s. The mountains will have temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but most areas should remain dry. Ridge continues to hold across eastern U.
Tranquil conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure in control of the weather. However, with dewpoints running a little bit higher than last night, don't think we'll be quite as cool -- with lows in the low to mid 60s being more common by early Sunday morning. With dry air advection still present in the mid to upper levels, expect another mostly sunny day with abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s. H5 high pressure will slide east from the Ozarks to the OH River Valley during this timeframe, and mid level winds will begin to shift to the south, at least temporarily. The quasi-zonal flow will keep cold fronts and dry, continental air masses in place well to our north.