Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
231 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The upper ridge remains anchored over the Central Plains today, maintaining easterly to southeasterly flow aloft over the region. The flow aloft along with southeasterly surface flow is maintaining ample moisture areawide, particularly across the higher terrain. Temperatures this afternoon are on target to top out in the middle to upper 90s for most, with 80s across the higher terrain, and lows tonight will drop into the 60s and 70s, similar to the past several nights.
224 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days. A few models show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our north/northeast. Models are actually showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few decrees warmer Thursday than today.
The few relatively weak showers have been speckled from well offshore in the Atlantic Straits to the Gulf waters adjacent to the Lower Keys, to the waters well offshore from Mainland Monroe County. A light steering flow will persist thanks to a persistent ridge aligned just to our north.
Compared to yesterday, KBMX upper air sounding has warmer temperatures aloft this morning with the 500mb temp around -5 Celsius. The northerly flow is being enhanced by an upper low over the coastal Carolinas. Satellite imagery shows an upper level short wave trof along the Illinois/Indiana state line. The models maintain this short wave trof as it tracks southward around the eastern edge of the upper ridge. With the approach of the short wave trof from the north, added isolated thunderstorms for all of north central Alabama for the afternoon.
1137 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 As high pressure over the Great Basin migrates eastward, expect near-normal temperatures and morning coastal stratus throughout the forecast period. A large upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over the Plains States will slowly weaken and nudge east as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest over the next several days.
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated in the days ahead, as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot and humid conditions late this week through the weekend. Rather weak and amorphous pressure pattern will prevail through the near term with the Bermuda ridge extending westward across the Carolinas and a weak but persistent lee-side trough extending across the Carolina foothills. A warming trend commences on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values of around 100F. Two upper ridges, one centered over the western Atlantic and the other over MO "reconnect" Thursday night as upper low retrogrades south and west into JAX. At the surface the gradient will be quite weak as we sit between two areas of high pressure.
The upper trough, combined with lake and terrain enhancement, should maintain snow showers at least into the afternoon.
Tonight through the upcoming weekend: high pressure over the western Atlantic which has been providing gusty NE winds the past 2 days will weaken tonight and Friday, leading to a lighter wind regime at least through Friday. A few showers could make their way back to the east coast metro areas on Friday as convergence increases ahead of the next cold front moving down the state, but POPs remain no higher than 20 percent. The cold front will move through South Florida Friday night, but unlike the past couple of fronts, this one is in a mostly zonal (west to east) mid/upper level pattern.
Cold high pressure currently centered over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will slide southeastward today leading to a sunny day. Despite all the sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach into the lower 30s.
226 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Upper level analysis shows a trough over the eastern CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, a warm front is draped across the CWA.
/issued 254 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018/ Over the next 6-10 days, the overall synoptic pattern will feature a mid-level ridge just off the U. Pacific coast with a Hudson Bay low and associated trough over the eastern half of the United States. During this time, at least two cold fronts will move across Oklahoma and western north Texas.
313 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 WV imagery this morning showing a well amplified ridge sitting off the west coast with Pacific moisture spreading sewd in the northern Plains. strong high pressure was in control over the cntrl CONUS. Models are in rather good agreement a broad upper level trof will prevail across the CONUS over the next several days. This large scale pattern will be favorable for another cold air intrusion into the lower 48 this weekend.
439 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 A cold front currently crossing the forecast area will move offshore late this morning.
356 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 The latest surface map features arctic high pressure centered across the Midwest, with a cold front exiting across the Eastern Seaboard. Aloft, broad troughing is found east of the Rockies, in response to a deep upper level low anchored across Hudson Bay.
BTL A weak frontal system that can be characterized primarily as a warm front is currently pushing low and mid level clouds southeastward across the Umpqua Divide and into the Cascades. The lower conditions may spread south of the Umpqua Divide, including the Illinois and Rogue Valleys as well as east of the Cascades, including KLMT however, confidence is low so have kept MVFR/IFR mention out of the TAF for KMFR and KLMT. Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough near the coast will strengthen again late Friday into the weekend, and this may bring small craft advisory north winds and steep seas to portions of the waters south of Cape Blanco.
First, for today high pressure scoots to the southeast with a warm front and associated low level warm air advection/isentropic upglide sliding in from the west this afternoon/evening. Meso models are the only ones that suggest there would be enough lift to work on the low level saturation (per bufkit soundings) to trigger snow showers. Tonight the warm front takes a more west-east orientation from southern MN into central WI later tonight.
Early morning surface analysis had a cold front along the Gulf coast with a 1038mb high centered over western Missouri.
Temps should reach the upper teens and lower 20s by late evening with low temps only a few degrees cooler (15-20 degrees) as clouds move in later in the overnight period as well as a weak return flow.
1034 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Cold high pressure has settled into the Northern Plains with upper level subsidence providing plenty of sunshine other than some flat low level CU. Warming over SW MN will be the most tempered as highs will likely only reach the low to mid 20s over this region.
Farther inland in the valleys, mountains and deserts, it will remain sunny and warm with strong high pressure off the West Coast. Thursday was another sunny, warm day for most of Southern California with highs in the 70s and 80s in the lower elevations, and the 60s and low 70s in the mountains.
349 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Cold Canadian high pressure will continue to press southeast into the region today.
MET/MAV and better performing bias corrected grids support high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 40s across the northeast and east to the low 50 possibly mid 50s across the rest of the area.
326 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 A ridge of high pressure has settled across the Upper Midwest overnight and allowed skies to remain clear. This is the beginning of warmer air that will provide light snow or flurries to eastern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin late this afternoon, and into the evening.
There, highs are expected to rise into the 30s to around 40 degrees, while cooler readings in the 20s will be found over the eastern CWA. For tonight, will be watching arrival of low pressure as it moves into western SD.
1226 AM PST Fri Feb 2 2018 A prolonged period of high pressure will likely continue through mid-month and will continue a persistent pattern of unseasonable warmth, dry conditions and generally light winds. High pressure will remain firmly in place through the weekend and beyond resulting in unseasonable warmth and dry conditions.
1113 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Quiet weather tonight as high pressure continues to build into the area. As low level warm air advection develops Friday morning, the Nam and the Highres/NMM are suggesting that a few flurries could occur in northeast NE and and northwest/west central IA Friday.
1137 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 See Aviation below for 06Z update The cold front is currently through the Victoria Crossroads and pushing towards the coast. The cold front is currently pushing through South Texas.
412 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 The latest surface map features arctic high pressure centered across the Midwest, with a cold front exiting across the Eastern Seaboard. Aloft, broad troughing is found east of the Rockies, in response to a deep upper level low anchored across Hudson Bay.
On Fri, cold air shifts east, with warmer downslope flow covering all the eastern mountains and plains by late day. Should thus see much warmer temps in many areas, with a few spots in the srn I-25 corridor reaching the lower 60s as 700 mb temps push into the 1-3C range with moderate w-sw winds.
356 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Temperatures were beginning to fall in the wake of last nights cold front. A weak coastal trough will begin to develop tonight. The coastal trough will evolve into an area of weak low pressure and a warm front will extend up the coast. The front will bring warmer and more moist air toward SE TX.
335 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Low clouds are impacting the lows this morning as they move east northeast across the area. Lows dropped into the low single digits over northeastern parts of the forecast area before the clouds moved in. This will limit some of the warming today, however, with warm air advection returning still expect a much warmer day than Thursday. Expecting highs in the low 40s across much of the area, except where there is still a decent amount of snow on the ground. With slightly cooler temps and cloud cover, do not currently have relative humidity values dropping to 25% or below, but with the known challenges with dewpoint forecasts, will not remove near critical fire weather concerns from the forecast.
Currently, old cold frontal boundary that worked through the area has continued to wash out during the day over portions of southern KS. This has caused cooler temps than expected over northern counties so had reduced high temps this afternoon earlier by a couple degrees. Expecting over night low temps to dip into the low teens and possibly single digits in far northeast Kansas.
/issued 315 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018/ Scattered light showers and patchy drizzle were occurring mainly east of the Mississippi River this hour with a passing cold front bisecting the CWA. Brisk north winds in the 10 to 25 mph range overnight will provide sufficient mixing which will only contribute to wind chills dropping into the low and mid teens by sunrise.
239 AM EST Fri Feb 02 2018 A cold front will cross central NC through Fri morning.
18Z surface data has high pressure across the Plains with a cold front across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Quiet, breezy, and cold conditions will be seen from late afternoon through early evening as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Friday, the quiet conditions will continue during the morning as the high moves into the Ohio Valley.
The cold front is moving quickly to the east with a deep upper level trough axis overhead. Expect some of the higher elevations of SW VA and E Tn could receive an additional inch of accumulation and have continued with the advisory for now.
1052 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 It's been a cold February day across Kansas and Missouri thanks to the dry cold front moved through early this morning, allowing a cold north wind to prevail through the day.
A cold front has moved out of the forecast area and well to the South with strong Northerly winds gradually ending in wake of the boundary as the pressure gradient decreases. /issued 956 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018/ Breezy northerly winds with the passage of a cold front persists across portions of the ARKLATEX, though speeds have come down across portions of northwest LA, northeast TX and north central LA.
1030 PM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Main concerns through Friday will be with winds in the wind prone areas, then with increasing snow over the higher mtns. Warmer Friday as the cold surface airmass banked up against the mtns erodes east and warmer downslope flow ensues.
113 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 A cold front will move across the region overnight with snow showers and minor snow accumulations. An arctic cold front has moved through the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Lesser amounts expected along the Chautauqua ridge.
259 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure has settled in over Missouri with clear skies, lighter winds, and a cold airmass dropping low temperatures down into the single digits north of the MO River.
This has slowed the warming trend slightly across the northern areas but, regardless, temperatures are still well above normal with temperatures in the lower valleys reaching the low to mid 50s.
304 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 This morning a mid/upper level longwave trough was progressing eastward over the northeast CONUS. On the backside of the high pressure return flow has already become established across central KS and is expected to spread into portions of eastern KS by this afternoon. As a result high temperatures today should be at least 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Multiple HRRR and RAP runs are consistently forecasting the lowest relative humidity around 20 percent, which occurs in the Flint Hills. An increase in the lower tropospheric pressure gradient this evening results in wind speeds remaining fairly constant through the night.
246 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Cold front has pushed well south of our region but a tight post frontal gradient remains with some stronger northeast wind gusts still being reported along and south of the I-20 Corridor. With a mix of sun and clouds today, the pressure gradient should begin to relax somewhat by this afternoon but with cold air advection in the wake of the cold front, daytime highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than those we saw in the pre- frontal airmass on Thursday.
1132 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 A cold front will push south across the forecast area overnight and during the early morning hours with a few light showers accompanying it.
100 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 A cold front will cross the region early Friday morning.
Update this evening for locations near the southeast shore of Lake Chelan and extending a bit into a small portion of the Wenatchee area to include a mention of pockets of light freezing rain.
253 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Quiet weather is expected in the short term, as an axis of high pressure drifts eastward across Illinois later today. Some of the high-res models hint at some very light precipitation this evening across the northern CWA. Forecast soundings remain fairly dry in the lower levels though, so will only mention a chance of flurries at this point.
Rest of forecast looks reasonable, Previous discussion: Active Winter pattern to begin tomorrow night, possibly bringing Freezing rain to portions of the area.
341 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Southerly winds over western Nebraska pushing a warm frontal boundary to the northeast with an associated stratus field. Nebraska lies primarily in northwest flow aloft the next several days as a ridge builds off the Pacific coast and a low remains anchored over the Hudson Bay.
Cooler temperatures are also beginning to encroach into northern portions of the forecast area and will result in a brisk Friday morning commute. Additional adjustments will likely be made later tonight, especially if winds stay up a bit which would keep temperatures slightly warmer than forecast.
346 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure builds over the area today and into Wednesday before moving offshore Wednesday night.
410 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 It's another muggy and mild morning across the Mid-State, with 3 am temperatures ranging from the middle 60s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Look for another hot and humid day, and have gone closer to the warmer MET MOS numbers for today, and really don't see much reason why temperatures shouldn't be as warm as yesterday's readings. Upper ridge builds back into Middle Tennessee, out of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, on Wednesday, and helps to keep temperatures hot and pushes maximum afternoon heat index values into the 98 to 102 deg range.
High pressure will generally remain over the waters through the weekend, with light south to southwest flow.
311 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, early morning temperatures across Southeast Texas are in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s at the coast. These readings are actually a degree or two cooler than they were at this time yesterday. Radar is quiet at the moment, and the forecast has it staying that way today as we lose our recent 2+ precipitable water values with mid/upper level ridging beginning to build into the area.
A heat advisory will be in effect for this afternoon, for locations along and east of the highway 81 corridor, basically all of central and eastern Oklahoma. Additionally, with dew points in the low 70s across southern Oklahoma and Bufr soundings revealing a focus of low-level moisture, around 850-800mb, there could be a possibility of one or two showers in south central/southeastern Oklahoma, this afternoon.
The upper ridge over the central High Plains will weaken and flatten out a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as a short wave trough in mid levels moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. This feature will initiate convection along a surface lee trough/dryline in Colorado Tuesday afternoon which will continue Tuesday night.
439 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper trough will slide to the Northeast U. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes and become centered over the Middle Atlantic Region on Wednesday.
If any storms develop that are rooted in the boundary layer, there will be a deep dry subcloud layer with 1500j/kg DCAPE and freezing levels around 13.
645 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure builds in from the west today. allowing some warmer air back into the region.
338 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 (Today and Tonight) The upper high will build today and tonight over eastern New Mexico, northwest Texas and Oklahoma. Warm and muggy conditions are expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight.
Winds should be much lighter today, and temperatures slightly cooler as well.
344 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 At 3 AM, warm air advection ahead of a short wave trough has result in showers and storms across central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. For tonight, a cold front will move slowly southeast into the region. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, a cold front will move southeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. However, with this said, will have to watch where the low tracks.
155 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Cool and cloudy conditions can be expected today through tonight, as low pressure completes its swing through the region, along with patchy drizzle and spotty light showers. High pressure Wednesday will allow the clouds to break up.
626 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. A cold front will stall north of the area today and be a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the higher terrain. To the south, a pre- frontal trough will coincide with an area of greater moisture, and heavy rain can be expected south of Augusta and possibly into the southern Midlands. A weak upper low over GA will drift east and move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Also, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
310 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Quiet weather expected in the short term, as high pressure drifts further east across the Great Lakes. Dew points will start creeping upward, the start of a warming trend as the upper ridge over the southern Plains starts to edge eastward. Temperatures still look to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s on Wednesday ahead of the cold front to our northwest.
354 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. A cold front will stall north of the area today and be a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the higher terrain. To the south, a pre-frontal trough will coincide with an area of greater moisture, and heavy rain can be expected south of Augusta and possibly into the southern Midlands. A weak upper low over GA will drift east and move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Also, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures remain on tap today and tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s across the Snake Plain.
DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO A WETTER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS Isolated to scattered showers should continue to develop late this afternoon along the sea breezes and push into the interior areas before dissipating around the Lake Okeechobee region this evening. High pressure over the Florida Keys will move northward tonight and into South Florida on Tuesday. The high will continue to move northward into Central Florida for the middle of this week keeping an easterly wind flow over the area, as another Saharan Air mass works westward from the Eastern Caribbean Sea into South Florida. The high will break down late this week into this weekend over Central Florida, as a trough of low pressure develops over the Eastern United States.
248 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue moving eastward out over the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to once again build into the region.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s. Through the short term period, the region will be located between a large ridge across the Central CONUS and the subtropical ridge that extends across the Southern Florida Peninsula. Thus, have set up a SE to NW PoP gradient, which features the highest rain chances on Wednesday across the I-75 corridor (70%) tapering down to 40% in portions of SE Alabama.
356 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure/light winds over the east tonight and skies will remain clear. A round or two of showers and storms is possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area, a few storms could be strong. Also, ahead of this cold front, strong and gusty southwest winds will create a moderate swim risk on Wednesday for the northern shores of Lake Michigan.
Low level monsoonal pattern will remain in place with broad heat/thermal low covering most of the western United States and high pressure to the east. Consequently surface dewpoints should remain mostly in the lower 50s to lower 60s each day across the lowlands most of the next seven days.
This drier air has resulted in a much larger T/Td spread below 500mb, and warmer mid-level temperatures. The warming of the mid-levels is also noted by the increase in freezing levels from 15,400 feet to 16,200 feet from 12z to 00z.