Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure and dry/cold conditions will prevail overnight, with lows falling into the mid 20s in the north to the low 30s in the south. The rain will mainly affect areas south of the I-20 corridor, with the best chances Saturday afternoon/evening along the Highway 84 corridor. Temperatures will be well above freezing Saturday afternoon, so expect all of the precip to be light rain. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40s north to the low 50s in the south. /15/ Saturday night through Thanksgiving Day: Cooler than normal temperatures with several waves of light rain; including one on Thanksgiving, are expected through the period. Morning lows will be back below freezing as far south as the Interstate corridor.
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Cold front brings a quick shot of snow today. Low pressure brings precipitation for Thanksgiving into Friday. A cold front with an upper short wave will pull out of the region later today, bringing an end to the snow. Much drier air will move into the area behind the cold front as cold high pressure system builds in.
Despite temperatures climbing a few degrees higher than today into the lower to middle 30s, the strong winds will continue to create bitterly cold wind chills in the single digits and teens throughout the day. High pressure will move overhead Saturday night, resulting in decreasing winds and plunging temperatures. With excellent radiational cooling conditions beneath the high, the coldest temperatures thus far this winter will be observed when overnight lows dip into the lower teens.
Further to the south across central and southern Oklahoma, cloud cover will linger just a little bit longer, keeping the temperatures into the low to mid 20s.
This thicker cloud cover could lead to some flurries or freezing drizzle however large dewpoint depression spreads near the surface and convergence/sinking air within the depth of the low-level clouds would suggest that this possibility is not as certain as it looked a few days ago. Because of this, have removed the mention of freezing drizzle/flurries tonight into Saturday morning but isolated locations may still see brief periods of it especially across the southwestern portion of the forecast area where slightly higher surface dewpoints are expected.
A positive PNA pattern brought cold air into the region as temperatures struggled to warm above freezing today. A Canadian high pressure center had shifted into the Central Plains, and will continue to progress east overnight. For Saturday, warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 154 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Key Messages: - Breezy westerly winds will decrease into the evening hours, becoming breezy again behind a passing cold front overnight. - Cold wind chills on either side of 0 degrees Saturday morning - Chances for light snow return along and behind passing cold front into Saturday morning, amounts under half an inch expected.
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (Today through Saturday Night ) A cold front from the north will continue traversing central and southern Arkansas this morning. A large area of high pressure will ride the flow into the state by Saturday. As the high gets closer, clouds will get forced to the south, and clearing will take place Saturday afternoon and night.
Large scale this afternoon consisting of a broad upper trough prevailing across the central/eastern CONUS with a amplified ridge situated just off the western coastline.
(This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite reveals an E-W oriented upper trough extending over S NV to OH with this feature slowly moving south today. Tomorrow, as the upper trough finally shifts south of the area, winds will tend to become northerly once again.
Aloft, a deep upper level trough will remain over Eastern U. For the rest of today, cooler and drier airmass remain in place.
Discussion: The deep upper trough over eastern half of the US will persist for the period.
157 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022 High pressure slowly edging in from the west over the region was bringing slightly warmer temperatures, but gusty winds to the area today. High pressure continuing to build into the region will cause temperatures to warm into the 20s and 30s for highs on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and breezy winds along the western foothills.
However, a marked improvement in temperatures for Saturday with sunny sky and light wind, and the NBM model indicating a range of outcomes for DDC in in the low 40âs (anywhere from 40 to about 44 degrees). With the colder boundary layer air retreating across the Missouri valley and winds becoming a little westerly in our area, highs might be a couple of degrees warmer at Hays, and closer to the mid 40s down at Liberal and Elkhart, but overall a fairly thermally homogeneous air-mass Saturday.
512 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite reveals an E-W oriented upper trough extending over S NV to OH with this feature slowly moving south today. Tomorrow, as the upper trough finally shifts south of the area, winds will tend to become northerly once again.
Further north along the cold front, seeing a band of light snow as well. As for the rest of the day Saturday, HREF trends with cloud cover show a gradual dissipation through the day in regards to the low cloud cover. High pressure at the surface will also be moving through, so will see a gradual decrease in wind speeds by mid to late afternoon. Warm air advection takes over Saturday night as our pattern change to warmer temperatures arrives.
Because of this, the low temperatures will not bottom out as much as they could have considering the partly cloudy skies and the fresh snow cover. The lowest values will be near Greeley and it's possible some negative temperatures are recorded around there. Across the higher terrain, lows will mostly be in the negative single digits. North Park will have the lowest temperatures, likely in the negative teens, due to the snow cover there. There is much less snow cover in Middle and South Parks which will keep temperatures slightly warmer there. During the day tomorrow, ridging will build in over Colorado which will lead to a warming trend. The weather story for the upcoming week is for a return to warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
539 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (Tonight) A cold but largely quiet night can be expected tonight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as dry high pressure continues to sink southward across the region.
A ridge will begin to build over the region this weekend and is favored to become more amplified by Thanksgiving.
905 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Dry and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday before a weak cold front moves through Saturday night bringing the chance for snow showers in the north. High pressure briefly builds in from the west overnight leading to tranquil weather. Skies will try to clear, but periods of cloudiness remain with upper level troughing over the region. Temperatures remain chilly, with highs in the mid 30s and wind chills in the low 20s, given the gusty conditions ahead of the frontal passage.
Ensembles show winds diminishing Saturday afternoon as pressure gradients relax and ridging builds over the region.
618 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Dry and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday before a weak cold front moves through Saturday night bringing the chance for snow showers in the north. Aloft, the large troughing pattern continues to stretch from the Northwest Territories in Canada down through the Ohio Valley, off toward the Labrador Sea. Temperatures remain chilly, with highs in the mid 30s and wind chills in the low 20s, given the gusty conditions ahead of the frontal passage.
653 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 High pressure will build into the region overnight. The trough that has been crossing the region has exited with still some lingering snow showers still possible through the evening behind the trough due to very cold air in a still present low level moisture. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I-80 where more favorable moisture is progged.
526 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Key Messages: - Breezy westerly winds will decrease into the evening hours, becoming breezy again behind a passing cold front overnight. - Cold wind chills on either side of 0 degrees Saturday morning - Chances for light snow return along and behind passing cold front into Saturday morning, amounts under half an inch expected.
Key Messages: -A cold front passes through the area tonight, bringing increasing clouds and a chance for flurries across north central Nebraska.
A cold front will cross through the region from the north today and Saturday, bringing chilly temperatures, cloudy skies, and locally gusty northerly winds. A broad trough is stretching from the Rocky Mountains through the Desert Southwest this afternoon, draping substantial mid and high level cloud cover across northern Arizona. The trough is forecast to gradually move south through Arizona over the weekend. By Saturday afternoon, the low reaches southern Arizona with a stalled frontal boundary reaching the White Mountains. This may result in just enough lift for a few snow showers there Saturday afternoon/evening, with potential for up to an inch of snow over the highest mountain peaks.
705 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 A dry cold front will move across the area Saturday.
The current HWO highlights the impactful elements where both very light snow, combined with cold temperatures, blowing snow, and refreezing on untreated surfaces, to cause travel problems. Relief from the cold temperatures will come late this weekend once the trough weakens.
Not as cool, with lows in the low/mid 40s north, upper 40s/low 50s central, and mid 50s/around 60 south. Aloft, a deep upper level trough will remain over Eastern U. For the rest of today, cooler and drier airmass remain in place.
A cold front has swept thru the region and in the wake of its departure, it produced a few flurries in the eastern Pennyrile earlier today. Filtered sunshine Saturday offers a 20-25F recovery, and then another upper trof/dry fropa yields nearly an identical low temp forecast under similar high pressure conditions for Sat night.
Breezy westerly winds will gradually usher in warmer air this weekend, gradually bringing an end to the arctic air that the area has seen the past few days.
804 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 A longwave trough has pushed a cold front through the Mid-South, further enforcing the cold and dry pattern across the region. Expect overnight low temperatures this weekend to be nearing record levels as the trough slowly pushes eastward out of CONUS.
301 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022 Breezy westerly winds will gradually usher in warmer air this weekend, gradually bringing an end to the arctic air that the area has seen the past few days.
542 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Freezing temperatures and a light wintry mix will be the main headlines for tonight and Saturday morning. In fact, a light mix of snow and freezing drizzle is possible north of Interstate 10. However, bridges and overpasses may be prone to minor slick spots. With highs reaching back into the lower 40s on Saturday afternoon, many areas should see improvement during the afternoon hours if any slick spots do develop. Otherwise, the cold front will leave cool temperatures behind again for Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain northeasterly making it feel a few degrees cooler than it actually is. In fact, wind chills will be in the lower to middle 30s during the afternoon.
Upper level ridge over Western Washington through Saturday night.
However, a marked improvement in temperatures for Saturday with sunny skies and light winds, and the NBM model indicating a range of outcomes for DDC in the low 40âs (anywhere from 40 to about 44 degrees). With the colder boundary layer air retreating across the Missouri valley and winds becoming a little westerly in our area, highs might be a couple of degrees warmer at Hays, and closer to the mid 40s down at Liberal and Elkhart, but overall a fairly thermally homogeneous air-mass Saturday.
Luckily for us this will only be temporary as another strong storm moves into the high latitudes and forces the ridge inland through the weekend. As skies clear we are looking at temperatures dropping below zero over much of the high country above 10kft and many of the favored high valleys. This is likely to lock some of the colder air in the surface for a day or so the high temperature forecast will struggle and may end cooler in many southern and central valleys as a result. The bitter arctic air will start to be scrubbed out up North and is should be slightly warmer there tomorrow. Finally warm advection should lead to a noticeably warmer night at elevation Saturday night.
231 PM PST Fri Nov 18 2022 The passage of a cold front today will drop temperatures this afternoon through Saturday, along with gusty east winds along the Sierra crest this afternoon.
However, a marked improvement in temperatures for Saturday with sunny skies and light winds, and the NBM model indicating a range of outcomes for DDC in the low 40âs (anywhere from 40 to about 44 degrees). With the colder boundary layer air retreating across the Missouri valley and winds becoming a little westerly in our area, highs might be a couple of degrees warmer at Hays, and closer to the mid 40s down at Liberal and Elkhart, but overall a fairly thermally homogeneous air-mass Saturday. There will be a mid level trough attendant to the strong zonal westerly jet over Texas, however our region should remain dry through much of the week.
Further north along the cold front, seeing a band of light snow as well. As for the rest of the day Saturday, HREF trends with cloud cover show a gradual dissipation through the day in regards to the low cloud cover. High pressure at the surface will also be moving through, so will see a gradual decrease in wind speeds by mid to late afternoon. Warm air advection takes over Saturday night as our pattern change to warmer temperatures arrives. The period begins on Sunday with an area of low pressure crossing southern Canada, with slightly below average temps at 925 mb over the CWA. Favorable mixing winds, along with generally under two inches of snow depth over of much of the CWA, highs may warm into the upper 20s, to the lower 40s.
* Warmer temperatures are on tap for Sunday through mid-week. The area remains under northwest flow today with a trough extending west to east from the Dakotas to New England and a ridge over the PACNW. Another surge of cold air will move into the region today, as a cold front crosses southeastern Nebraska. Heading into the latter half of the weekend, warmer weather is anticipated, with afternoon highs returning to the 50s. Dry conditions and warmer weather persists as the upper ridge to the west breaks down and we come under zonal flow.
Broad cyclonic flow was occurring over much of the CONUS around a cold upper low well up north in central Canada.
257 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The longwave mid/upper trough over much of the CONUS is beginning to slide eastward this morning.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows mid-level zonal flow over the south-central Plains with a positively-tilted trough axis over the Dakotas. Highs this afternoon will struggle to get to freezing. Another reinforcing shot of cold air will follow a weak cold front Saturday AM and will keep temperatures in the afternoon in the mid 30s. High pressure will slide in behind the front and lead to sunny skies during Saturday afternoon. Low-level flow will return to the south as the blocking pattern out west begins to break down.
145 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The exiting trough will take this morning's flurries and low clouds with it today. Downslope winds along the Coteau overnight could keep that area marginally warmer. By 18z Sunday the 24 hour H85 temps will rise +20C setting the stage for highs above freezing from parts of the James Valley west. Breezy northwest winds will diminish this afternoon as the high settles in.
1033 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite reveals an E-W oriented upper trough extending over S NV to OH with this feature slowly moving south today. Tomorrow, as the upper trough finally shifts south of the area, winds will tend to become northerly once again.
1227 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 A dry cold front will move across the area today.
1227 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 High pressure will build into the region overnight. A cold front will result in a few snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Flurries should gradually end overnight as the stratocu layer decreases with backing wind flow, and as sfc ridging begins to build in from the southwest. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I-80 where more favorable moisture is progged.
118 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Dry and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday before a weak cold front moves through Saturday night bringing the chance for snow showers in the north. High pressure briefly builds in from the west overnight leading to tranquil weather. Skies will try to clear, but periods of cloudiness remain with upper level troughing over the region. Temperatures remain chilly, with highs in the mid 30s and wind chills in the low 20s, given the gusty conditions ahead of the frontal passage. Sunday morning lows look to be the lowest of the week, around 10 degrees in our west where skies clear fastest and mid teens in the east. Flow aloft will be undergoing a transition early in the period as a trough lifts out, heights rise, and it become more zonal.
High pressure centered over the southern Plains bulges to the southeast across the Gulf, with the enhanced gradient across the southern Gulf, the Keys and the Bahamas. An expanding area of high pressure over the southeastern United States will lead to strengthening northeast to east breezes over the weekend, with strong breezes increasingly likely by Sunday.
Overnight lows fall into the single digits tonight, with highs on Sunday reaching the lower to middle 20s.
213 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Key points: * Cold again today and tonight then close to seasonal normals * Elevated fire danger possible Sunday Southwest winds have been the rule early this morning between high pressure to the south and a cold front moving south into central Nebraska. Temps have steadied under good low-level warm air advection but the cold front brings another cold day today.
Models are in good agreement today with an upper level trough located over the Northern Plains earlier this morning moving southeast into the Great Lakes region/Ohio Valley during the day today (Sat 11/18). As this upper level trough moves across the Western Great Lakes Region later this morning. Some gusty northwest winds will be possible late this morning through mid afternoon following this frontal passage but little in the way of any cooler air is forecast to return to southwest Kansas.
Discussion: This morning broad upper level troughing exists over the Great Lakes region. Today, another vort max will drop south on the back side of this upper level trough forcing a cold front through the area. Although this cold front will remain dry, it will swing the winds from the southwest to the northwest and become gusty behind the front.
A cold front has swept thru the region and in the wake of its departure, it produced a few flurries in the eastern Pennyrile earlier today. Filtered sunshine Saturday offers a 20-25F recovery, and then another upper trof/dry fropa yields nearly an identical low temp forecast under similar high pressure conditions for Sat night. High pressure will be centered over the east central U.
- Tranquil wx returns Sunday through midweek - The upper trof will finally move out of our area Sunday and will be followed by moderating h8 temps.
High pressure at the surface will gradually move east into the Midsouth today and tonight. Lows in the low to mid 20's will be common with some locations likely seeing the upper teens.
145 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northern Nebraska into central Wyoming. Deep upper trof over the central CONUS shifts east as western ridge flattens. This will shunt the cold air north and east of the forecast area, with much of the week featuring drier/warmer conditions.
Despite temperatures climbing a few degrees higher than today into the lower to middle 30s, the strong winds will continue to create bitterly cold wind chills in the single digits and teens throughout the day. High pressure will move overhead Saturday night, resulting in decreasing winds and plunging temperatures. With excellent radiational cooling conditions beneath the high, the coldest temperatures thus far this winter will be observed when overnight lows dip into the lower teens. Once the high departs, southwesterly return flow will signal the beginning of a rapid warming trend beginning on Sunday.
Another dry cold front will pass through the area tonight.
(Tonight) Broad troughing was in place over the greater North American domain, helping to continue colder than average temperatures for much of the CONUS. Highs today warmed mostly into the lower 50s, which is still ~10 degrees below seasonable norms.
Radar shows some returns in the higher terrain of Big Horn County indicating that a bit of light snow could be reaching the ground there. Temperature profile supports an upslope/downslope precipitation pattern, and dewpoint profile shows quite dry air in lower levels so would expect any snow to be very limited in area to the higher terrain SE of Billings and NW of Sheridan, WY. RMS High pressure slowly edging in from the west over the region was bringing slightly warmer temperatures, but gusty winds to the area today. High pressure continuing to build into the region will cause temperatures to warm into the 20s and 30s for highs on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and breezy winds along the western foothills.
a degree or two warmer in urban settings. Tomorrow a cold front will approach from the northwest and by evening will stretch from Detroit to Evansville to Little Rock. A moisture-starved cold front will be passing through the region by Saturday evening, bring a shift in winds from SW to a colder NW flow.
Low temperatures will be in the low 50s across the interior and Volusia coast.
1053 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Freezing temperatures and a light wintry mix will be the main headlines for tonight and Saturday morning. In fact, a light mix of snow and freezing drizzle is possible north of Interstate 10. However, bridges and overpasses may be prone to minor slick spots. With highs reaching back into the lower 40s on Saturday afternoon, many areas should see improvement during the afternoon hours if any slick spots do develop. Otherwise, the cold front will leave cool temperatures behind again for Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain northeasterly making it feel a few degrees cooler than it actually is. In fact, wind chills will be in the lower to middle 30s during the afternoon.
The current HWO highlights the impactful elements where both very light snow, combined with cold temperatures, blowing snow, and refreezing on untreated surfaces, to cause travel problems. Relief from the cold temperatures will come late this weekend once the trough weakens. This will bring temperatures to the upper 20s low 30s, although still below normal for this time of year (which is in the low 40s).
1120 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 High pressure will build into the region overnight. A cold front will result in a few snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Flurries should gradually end overnight as the stratocu layer decreases with backing wind flow, and as sfc ridging begins to build in from the southwest. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I-80 where more favorable moisture is progged.
1112 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 A longwave trough has pushed a cold front through the Mid-South, further enforcing the cold and dry pattern across the region. Expect overnight low temperatures this weekend to be nearing record levels as the trough slowly pushes eastward out of CONUS.