Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
802 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. This transpires as the cold front finally slides south out of the forecast area by midday. High pressure building and centered in the Upper Midwest will continue to nose into the area from the west. This will clear out our sky cover heading into tonight along with cooler temps. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
/issued 204 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/ Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to overspread the CWA today with generally hot and benign weather expected. Fairly deep mixing up to around 3-km AGL should occur by peak heating as temperatures rise into the lower 90s and upper 90s across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, respectively. Otherwise, winds shift to the southeast at around 5-15 mph as the anticyclone aloft intensifies with dry and hot weather elsewhere. Sincavage This weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Rockies/Intermountain West with a trough deepening over the eastern CONUS.
541 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 08z surface analysis had high over south central ND with trough from central MT into eastern WY, turning into a stationary front along the NE/KS line. Trough moves east and lies across southern portion of CWA. This trough may be focus for additional -TSRA this afternoon over the Black Hills into central SD.
The 500 mb geopotential heights also sampled at 2 dam higher than yesterday at the same time, evidence that ridging and associated subsidence continues to emerge. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
Expect another active day across southeastern Arizona with the upper level low beginning to rapidly fill/shear out as it lifts north through Arizona by this evening. Not too mention, storms will also be moving into an increasingly moist/unstable airmass into the lower deserts. By Saturday, thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated with any storms focused over the higher terrain.
Today through Saturday afternoon The ridge axis that has been over central Nevada has moved westward over the western US and a strong, much above normal push of monsoonal moisture continues to make its way into Nevada.
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 One more hot and humid day anticipated across the local area today as high pressure aloft remains across the local area and a moist airmass remains in place near the surface. expect a cold front across northern Nebraska to push south. This will bring in cooler temps for the region on Saturday.
/issued 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The center of a 500mb ridge will remain parked over the Kansas and Oklahoma through much of the period. At the surface, broad high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with some weak coastal convergence/troughing along the extreme Northwest Coast of Mexico and into the CWA. Also, deeper tropical moisture is expected to increase along the lower Texas coast today.
Upper level high pressure was centered over Kansas early this morning with some cirrus managing to ooze west into eastern Kansas from thunderstorms in central Missouri. Low-level thermal trends suggest a slightly cooler day for air temps though some differences linger on dewpoint values, with quite high levels possible near the front. Thunderstorms may develop along and just behind the front this afternoon into tonight with little afternoon and evening CIN (especially if the higher dewpoints are realized) and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. The front slides south tonight through Saturday evening as weak waves traverse the upper flow and carve out modest upper troughing. The remainder of the weekend brings north to northeast winds for cooler temps under clearing skies as the upper ridge is shunted southwest.
229 AM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area.
An upper low off the west coast will slowly eject this weekend as the ridge shifts slowly westward toward the Desert Southwest.
A high surface pressure airmass has moved from the southern Canadian provinces into the Red River region of the Dakotas and Minnesota in the last 24 hours, driving a surface cold front to the Kansas Nebraska line. This front is forecast to lift north as a warm front this afternoon as the airmass begins to heat up this morning. Looking at yesterday, apparent temperatures (heat indices in this summer case) were limited to around 100-103 degrees over portions of Barber county, and actually fell across the highway 183 corridor with insufficient dew points to increase an apparent temp. Our region will remain under the influence of the upper ridging while an mcs is likely to be driven southeast through the Missouri along the surface boundary through the eastern NE/srn IA and northern MO area.
As the center of high pressure meanders over central Idaho into eastern Washington, temperatures will soar into the 100-degree realm today and Saturday.
Hot and dry conditions will continue across southwest KS through Saturday morning as a 596 dm upper level ridge remains locked in place over the central plains. This will push a cold front through the central plains and into southwest KS sometime Saturday morning into the afternoon, however, there remains some disagreement between models on frontal timing. Current thinking aligns with the faster solutions, such that maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the northern zones to the low 100s in the southern zones, with the best chance of thunderstorms existing near the KS/OK border.
08z surface analysis had high over south central ND with trough from central MT into eastern WY, turning into a stationary front along the NE/KS line. Trough moves east and lies across southern portion of CWA. This trough may be focus for additional -TSRA this afternoon over the Black Hills into central SD.
It shows continued lifting through about 00Z before the smoke dives south again behind the cold front tonight and will linger through the day.
140 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
South and west of the area, the effective warm front was located. Easterly winds will help to build high pressure north of the low and shunt the system south as a nocturnal MCS develops.
Surface analysis shows a well-defined ridge axis extending across the southern tip of the Florida Mainland, with upper-level water vapor imagery revealing a quasi-stationary Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell centered just north of Hispaniola. CIMMS MIMIC derived precipitable water product shows a pocket of dry air between 900-500 mb advecting into the Florida Keys island chain from the southern periphery of the ridge.
That said, the current timing of the cold front Saturday afternoon into southern Kansas and low level flow veering to a southwest wind should result in even hotter temperatures with contribution of modest compressional warming and downslope flow.
1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail across central Illinois today. with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Cold front has settled S/SW of the KILX CWA early this morning, resulting in a light northeasterly breeze. Thanks to haze partially blocking the sun and a continued E/NE breeze, high temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. with some locations from Jacksonville eastward to Mattoon where precip will be most prevalent perhaps staying in the lower 70s.
110 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. High pressure building and centered in the Upper Midwest will continue to nose into the area from the west. This will bring in a cooler air mass with afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Previous rainfall and cooler temps, with light winds and clear skies may lead to some patchy instances of fog tonight. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
Ridging aloft becomes maximized over the Ark-La-Tex during the day tomorrow, allowing temperatures to become dangerously hot once again.
Dewpoint temperatures will still be in the low 70s over much of the area, and therefore, heat indices will climb up to 109 degrees. A cold front descending from Kansas may trigger the development of some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Mid level ridging is centered over the Southern High Plains and extends broadly over a large area, including the Gulf of Mexico where high pressure is supported at the surface. Toward the end of the short term, Saturday night, the ridge appears to break down a bit as larger scale troughing takes over above the Midwest.
Synoptically, an elongated upper ridge remains in place to our north, roughly extending along a line from SE Wyoming to NW Mississippi. The orientation of this ridge has placed the CWA under southeasterly flow aloft, with satellite analysis revealing a weak impulse within the upper flow moving over West Texas. Saturday will likely evolve in a similar manner to today as the upper ridge flattens and shifts southward. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than today with deep mixing, allowing convective temperatures to be attained again.
317 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The cold front finally crossed eastern KY earlier this afternoon and is currently to our south over TN. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with humid dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As drier air continues to filter into the area tonight, dew points will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Saturday morning, resulting in a much more comfortable evening with overnight low temps in the lower 60s. On Saturday an impulse embedded within a larger scale trough pivoting SE out of Canada will dive down from the northern plains towards our region by late in the day.
228 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A cold front is passing through the Mid Atlantic region today with a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the Piedmont, then slightly cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
1032 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail across central Illinois today. with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Cold front has settled S/SW of the KILX CWA early this morning, resulting in a light northeasterly breeze. Thanks to haze partially blocking the sun and a continued E/NE breeze, high temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. with some locations from Jacksonville eastward to Mattoon where precip will be most prevalent perhaps staying in the lower 70s.
Upper level ridge shows signs of retrograding west.
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 As a cold front works its way into southern Virginia later this afternoon, high pressure will build in behind it tonight.
High pressure and stability continue to discourage precipitation and cig development. Heading thru Sat/Sat night, the aforementioned upper rdg axis wl start transitioning to the W as an upr trof strengthens ovr the Ern - part of the nation.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure that stretched from eastern Lake Superior southwest through eastern WI into northwest IL. A cold front was located from southern Manitoba through northwest ND. The high pressure will slowly shift east this evening, allowing for the cold front to approach northern sections of the Great Lakes toward daybreak.
242 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper ridge tilted to the west leading to northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Easterly winds continue at the surface, resulting from the pressure gradient between high pressure over South Dakota and a trough of low pressure to the southwest.
212 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 It another hot and humid day today as upper level ridging becomes centered over the region for the next couple of days. Saturday should be the hottest day temperature wise as the aforementioned southwesterly winds push temps up a couple more degrees ahead of an approaching cold front.
408 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 It will be cooler and notably less humid this afternoon in the wake of last nights cold frontal passage.
Satellite suggests the upper level disturbance which moved through SD last night may have produced an area of high pressure in it's wake. A cold front has dropped into the Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska for focus, moisture is plentiful and winds aloft are fairly strong, 30- 35kt at h500-h300mb. The subtropical high pressure ridge centered over Oklahoma will retreat west through the Rockies and amplify. At the same time, an upper level low will form across eastern Canada.
An upper level high, currently centered over Kansas and Oklahoma, will shift a bit south over Oklahoma on Saturday. Our area will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge. Warm and humid conditions are expected overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. With slight building of the 850mb thermal ridge, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
1229 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Above average temperatures to continue over the forecast area due to high pressure aloft. This moisture feed is coming from an off-shore low that is phased with an upper level ridge located over the Plains, giving storms access to abundant moisture.
Latest CAMs is not very enthusiastic about this activity, but does maintain convection this evening over the higher terrain in upslope flow. Saturday night, the focus will shift to the northern zones as a cold front approaches. Thicknesses increase over the next 24 hours under the upper ridge, and models finally bring highs Saturday to near or above normal again.
That said, high pressure has wrapped drier air further into our airspace, limiting any isolated -RA/-TSRA (and additional MVFR vis/cigs) to KLFK if it forms at all between now and 31/00Z. Otherwise, drier air and subsidence continues to wrap around ridging that has shifted closer to the Western Ozarks.
This higher moisture content has also been the source of the higher heat indices today, moreso than the air temperature itself. With clearing skies, some patchy dense fog will be possible overnight, and lows will be in the lower 70s. The broad upper ridge will continue to shift back west (thankfully) over the weekend as the deepening upper trough digs south through the Appalachians.
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 It will be cooler and notably less humid this afternoon in the wake of last nights cold frontal passage.
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather through Saturday.
1103 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 It will be cooler and notably less humid this afternoon in the wake of last nights cold frontal passage.
A cold front will enter the northwestern CWA by the afternoon on Saturday.
HRRR does appear to catch on to the light visibility decreases across southern Saskatchewan and drag them south behind the cold front this evening generating haze so switched back to it in the evening hours.
200 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 (Issued 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure dominates tonight into early Saturday. A westerly flow develops Saturday ahead of a cold front. Another cold air advection regime sets up later in the night in the wake of the cold front.
High pressure at the surface is forecast to be over the region through Saturday night. The only interruption will be a cold frontal passage out of the north Saturday morning. The period begins predominantly dry, with the area being sandwiched between a high amplitude upper-ridge to the west and an upper-trough to the east.
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the area into Saturday.
upper level ridge. Heat indices will range from 108 to 112 degrees across inland locations later this afternoon where better heating will support temperatures in the upper 90s along with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The hot and humid weather will persist into Saturday as the upper level ridge remains entrenched across the region.
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The cooler, drier airmass in the wake of last night's cold front is resulting in a pleasant day across central Indiana that will spill over into tonight. Current temperatures across the area are generally in the mid to upper 70s with a few low 80s, considerably cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will be even cooler as clouds increase a bit with an approaching wave in the upper flow.
Thunderstorms will develop along the Nevada border this afternoon and move north into the lower valleys and central Idaho mountains later this afternoon/early this evening.
Smoke has continued to linger with higher concentrations in the south and better improvement along the International border where stronger southwest flow flow is just ahead of the approaching cold front, and it is still possible. Effective shear may be enhances immediately along the frontal zone as it passes, so if CAPE were on the higher end of this range a strong cell with sub-severe hail/wind can't be ruled out before sunset. Ensemble guidance indicates high agreement between members of continued enhanced ridging, shifting us to northerly flow. There is still potential for improvement to VFR by late afternoon/early evening, however as a cold front drops south, northerly winds will bring additional smoke back into the region.
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight. Warm temperatures can be expected again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night, keeping the forecast dry. Cooler than average temperatures expected through the weekend with low end chances for precipitation.
However, mixing will be a bit limited as compared to other days and max temps will still warm into the low 90s, thus heat indices of 100-104 are expected, with perhaps an isolated 105 possible. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 74 89 70 / 30 10 30 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 93 71 85 68 / 10 10 50 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 70 84 66 / 10 20 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 89 66 82 63 / 10 10 50 50 30.
Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 80s with a few locations in the upper 80s. However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow as a much welcomed August cold front sinks into the Midsouth.
An inverted trough currently located over the central Gulf of Mexico will progressed westward tonight and through the day tomorrow.
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will continue to build southeast across the area through Saturday morning.
Otherwise, drier air and subsidence continues to wrap around ridging that has shifted closer to the Western Ozarks.
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 It will be cooler and notably less humid this afternoon in the wake of last nights cold frontal passage.
321 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
A cold front is located north of the International Border this afternoon and will drop south into the region tonight into Saturday morning.
The cooler, drier airmass in the wake of last night's cold front is resulting in a pleasant day across central Indiana that will spill over into tonight. Current temperatures across the area are generally in the mid to upper 70s with a few low 80s, considerably cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will be even cooler as clouds increase a bit with an approaching wave in the upper flow.
all underneath strong upper level ridging w/ modest monsoon moisture in place. Otherwise, drier conditions will prevail over the area for the next few days as monsoonal moisture stays confined to the south and west, keeping thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain.
822 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
/issued 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Mid level ridging is centered over the Southern High Plains and extends broadly over a large area, including the Gulf of Mexico where high pressure is supported at the surface. Toward the end of the short term, Saturday night, the ridge appears to break down a bit as larger scale troughing takes over above the Midwest.
The broad upper ridge will continue to shift back west (thankfully) over the weekend as the deepening upper trough digs south through the Appalachians.
1046 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather through Saturday evening.
751 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will continue to build southeast across the area through Saturday morning.
A weak push of slightly drier air made its way into the lower Ohio Valley on northerly winds this morning.
The upper level flow pattern is showing some troughing aloft help to break down the strong ridge that has been in place for several days. With increased flow aloft as the ridge continues to break down then storms could be organized enough to develop sustained updrafts.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH Tonight and Saturday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain its presence over the region as we end the work week and move into Saturday. This will also result in the continuation of the high heat and humidity levels across the region.
318 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The main concern will transition away from the hot temperatures today to lower clouds and patchy fog Saturday morning along with smoke behind a cold front that moves through the area early Saturday morning.
/28/ Tonight and Saturday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain its presence over the region as we end the work week and move into Saturday. This will also result in the continuation of the high heat and humidity levels across the region.
Satellite microwave data trends indicate that much drier air in the lower and middle troposphere has migrated overhead from the east and southeast, as expected. The low-level ridge has been drawn slowly northward to an area of geopotential height rises associated with the deep layer mean anticyclone over the central United States shifting a bit eastward and southeastward. The dry air present in the lower troposphere, however, will be a significant limiting factor for deep cumulus convection overnight. A ridge axis will remain firmly planted over South Florida overnight through this weekend.
High pressure will remain in control tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Overnight temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 70s and will provide little relief from the ongoing heat wave. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain its presence over the region as we end the work week and move into Saturday. This will also result in the continuation of the high heat and humidity levels across the region.
00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level ridge axis over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms which developed late in the afternoon on the periphery of an upper level ridge axis have since diminished over the past couple of hours.
Patterson (Issued 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure dominates tonight into early Saturday. A westerly flow develops Saturday ahead of a cold front. Another cold air advection regime sets up later in the night in the wake of the cold front.
747 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.