Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1013 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Upper level ridge builds over the Northern Plains on today, allowing high temperatures to climb into the lower 60s for many location on the plains. Weak trof flattens the ridge on Tuesday, with dry cold front moving through western South Dakota.
Drier air mass behind last night's cold frontal passage will allow only a few cumulus to pop up here or there. a thicker cirrus canopy will spill atop upper ridging centered over Mexico.
310 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure settling into the upper OH Valley will continue to bring dry and chilly conditions to the region tonight and Tuesday. A southeastward moving cold front will move into western Missouri Tuesday night. Warm advection clouds and showers may develop as far southeast as the lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning.
147 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Dry weather with periods of high clouds will persist this week as high pressure remains over the region or situated just to our south. A storm system passing to the north later in the week could bring slightly cooler temperatures and some breezes to the Southwest.
Would not be surprised to see a return to freezing fog tonight, especially for these last holdout spots. Hickford Light winds, along with high pressure and a persistent subsidence inversion over the area, have once again allowed freezing fog to develop overnight and into this morning. Tonight and Tuesday, the upper ridge will be pushed out of the area by a trough approaching from the west.
1022 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 The low clouds are still hanging around. Afternoon highs should be on the lower side of guidance. A large mass of low clouds is rotating around the high, the southerly periphery of which has dipped into the mid state.
1106 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying will occur behind a cold front today.
Despite the cirrus, with low clouds gone temperatures should drop well into the 30s overnight for much of the area, although temperatures could be much warmer if and where any low clouds linger across northern counties. Another cool, dry day is on tap for Tuesday with temps warming into the 50s to near 60, with lows a bit warmer Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.
353 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 A cold front has moved through the area. The boundary is offshore and high pressure will continue to build in from the north tonight. A slow moving upper trough to the north this week means little change expected in the local weather. Highs will be creeping back up into the mid/upper 70s by later this week as the upper trough to the east moves out into the Atlantic Ocean. Attm, GFS and ECMWF are not quite in agreement on how amplified the the trough will be.
326 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure at the surface quickly moves off to the east overnight. Clouds should temper temperatures a bit for tomorrow, but will still be warmer than today for most areas.
633 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Radar shows a few small showers popping up over my western zones where higher PWATs and heating on the ridges are forcing some local convection. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
Deep layer ridging will be the dominant forcing today.
The upper level pattern through mid week will feature a trough in the western U. with a ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Tennessee Valley. Weak impulses of energy will help to flatten the northern extent of the ridge over the next few days before the ridge becomes reestablished by mid week. In the lower levels, winds have shifted to the northeast across much of the region overnight. However, the location of the actual cold front is probably closer to the I-70 corridor. This front has essentially become stationary and is forecast to pivot back to the north as a warm front later today.
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A large trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest and spreading mid/high clouds toward the CWA this afternoon with widespread low-level warm advection and surface pressure falls across the northern high plains. This was fostering gusty south/southwest winds across the CWA, which will continue through tonight ahead of the incoming trough. On Tuesday a cold front will move across the CWA.
The zonal flow aloft today will turn more southwesterly as the low pressure area moving through the Pacific Northwest moves into the northern Great Basin area on Tuesday. The lead cyclonic circulation is the expanding upper low pressure area swings into south central Canada while a secondary lobe begins diving southward along the west coast. The lead low lobe sweeps a short wave trough through the northern extent of the forecast area Tuesday evening. Warmer than average high temperatures will be in middle 80s to middle 90s with relative humidity values dropping into the lower teens across mainly the western sections of the forecast area.
151 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front will move into Ohio today, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
326 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front over Indiana and Ohio will further weaken and wash out over the area, with a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Weak cold front is decaying across eastern Indiana and western Ohio this afternoon. Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast.
233 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights.
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will hold over the region through tonight as Jose approaches from the south.
The models show that the 500 mb high pressure area will weaken and move southward today. Some of the high resolution models seemed to be a bit overdone, especially early this morning over the inland areas.
1051 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Wet, cool and breezy fall-like weather can be expected over the Inland Northwest for much of the work week as an upper level trough moves over the region.
1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Low amplitude upper ridging will develop over the forecast area today as one upper trough moves off to the east and another, stronger trough develops over the west coast. At the surface, a tightening sfc pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and a deepening lee side trough to the west will produce breezy to windy conditions across much of the forecast area this afternoon. The weather today will be dry, warmer and breezy to windy as the 850-mb temperatures rise to the lower 20s Celsius over northeastern Wyoming. A strong upper trough will affect the forecast area on Tuesday. However, models still differ on the timing of a cold front that ultimately will move through the region by Tuesday night.
Cold front now well to our southeast, with only a few lingering clouds holding on near Saginaw Bay. Cold front is departing across eastern Lake Huron. Trailing high pressure is building into nw WI. The high will move slowly east across northern Lake MI and eastern upper MI today. Weak warm advection will resume tonight as the high lifts ne. Radar (and walking outside) indicates an area of associated drizzle over the high terrain of northern lower.
340 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front located over Lake Erie will drift southeast across the region this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight. The high will then dominate the weather the second half of the week. Weakening cold front will sag southward across the region this evening with a few showers possible Coverage will be scattered at best and mainly be located across the western half of northern Ohio. High pressure will ridge into the area behind the front. However there will not be much of an airmass change so a few showers may linger into Tuesday night as a weak trough persists. Warmer than seasonal averages through Tuesday night.
324 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in advance of the warm front and short wave. Tuesday looks to be dry as high pressure begins to build into the area. JPK Anomalous ridging is expected to continue to strengthen over the mid- Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes through the end of the work week.
/Issued 659 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ Does not appear to be much to the forecast today as there is an overall lack of significant moisture and instability as a 700-500mb ridge up the TN valley and the west side of the Appalachians keeps things quiet across the area. The upper ridge flattens for Tuesday with some moisture increase, most so for the far northern counties as this area could be affected by a weak short wave.
/issued 405 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ West to southwest flow is over the area with weak ridging aloft.
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights.
An upper level ridge over the lower MS River valley will deamplify by Tuesday, leaving weak westerlies across the Midsouth.
A warm front extends from central Nebraska into Western South Dakota.
304 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A broad trough is approaching from the west with dry southwest flow aloft overhead. Winds aloft and at the surface will increase as the trough approaches.
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure centered over the Northeast will extend south down the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday. Mins tomorrow night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness.
For today, mostly sunny conditions as a weak transitory ridge shifts through, allowing the flow aloft transition to southwesterly. The GFS continues to be faster with the cold frontal progression, and hence, has a narrower area/timeframe for severe weather, which suggests the James River Valley. Severe weather will wane in the mid evening as the mid/upper level trough and forcing shift farther east. It will be windy Tuesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Highs will range from the lower 60s west to upper 70s southeast.
322 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure centered over the Northeast will extend south down the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday. Mins tomorrow night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness.
435 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 20z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky though it is not effective in suppressing a few showers now popping up over western parts of the Cumberland Valley. Plenty of sunshine for most of the area have sent temperatures up into the lower 80s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding in the low to mid 60s with the winds still light and variable. They all now are a bit more hearty with the energy that initially drifts through the weakening ridge this evening and then even more so on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather, with mainly VFR conditions prevailing. This increased moisture surge will keep some scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for today as the moisture moves around the periphery of the H5 high pressure system. This ridge of high pressure will still remain in place, however, and think that POPs will remain somewhat limited due to subsidence.
14z sfc analysis shows a relatively weak area of high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky. The high res models are still indicating that a few showers or a storm could develop this afternoon in the western parts of the CWA so that part of the forecast appears to be on track. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 60s most places while dewpoints remain elevated in the low 60s and winds are light/variable. As for the rest of the day, mid/upper level ridging will remain in place today, keeping a rather stout cap in place. No threat for any strong storms as wind shear will remain non-existent under the upper level ridge. An upper level ridge will amplify over the Ohio Valley through the period continuing the unseasonably warm weather pattern for our area.
This afternoon, slight weakening of the mid level ridge will allow some additional moisture and instability to slip into the area, especially northwest. High pressure will keep it mostly VFR with light winds through the next 24 hours.
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will remain over the region this week resulting in mainly dry and mild weather during the next few days.
A broad longwave trough was over the Western US, resulting in quiet and cooler than average weather across SoCal. Continued onshore flow and a stable marine layer should allow the low stratus deck to push back inland around sunset or shortly thereafter. The low clouds should reach into the eastern valleys of San Diego County and the Inland Empire again tonight, with slow clearing likely again tomorrow morning.
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will dominate our weather for the week.
/issued 649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ Upper level trough still edging across the area, with low level outflow spreading southward from the Panhandle. However, a surface pressure trough over eastern New Mexico will enhance the low level convergence by this afternoon. A low level theta-e ridge will be jetting up through the I-27 corridor this afternoon.
253 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A cold wet pacific low pressure trough will bring snowfall to the western and northern mountains of wyoming this evening. Strong gusty west winds are also expected on the passes and higher ridges. The lower elevations will see rain with local heavy rainfall possible.
154 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Aviation Weak high pressure will bring fair weather today but a few showers are possible tonight as a warm front approaches lower Michigan. Dry and warmer than normal weather is expected the rest of the week. A few showers will linger across the eastern zones this morning as weak cold front pushes east. Surface ridging builds in this afternoon but that is transient as warm advection intensifies overnight.
251 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A broad longwave trough over the western U. and ridge centered over the east coast is the basic pattern at this time. The basic western trough/eastern ridge pattern will become more amplified toward the end of the week and through the weekend. With record high temperatures generally in the low 90s by the upcoming weekend. The ridge will also promote general subsidence over the area bringing generally dry weather.
A trough moving to our north will help bring in more clouds and keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. With the trough moving in we could see a few isolated showers/thunderstorms tomorrow, but am currently not expecting widespread precipitation with this weak system for tomorrow. High pressure over the coastal states will be present through the beginning of the work week.
400 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 This unseasonable pattern continues with the influence of high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico and the departing Hurricane Jose being the major synoptic players over much of the southeastern United States. As the high and Jose shift, winds will turn more easterly to northeasterly which will allow the sea breezes to make some progress inland. Conditions will gradually improve as Jose moves farther from the area and high pressure builds back into the region with light east/northeast flow.
356 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Radar shows a few small showers popping up over my western zones where higher PWATs and heating on the ridges are forcing some local convection. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
345 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Regime to stay largely dominated by a dampening ridge of high pressure with still mostly dry conditions prevailing. The gradual weakening of the ridge will allow the more enhanced moisture field and instability axis to start shifting slightly eastward (currently flirting with parts of the far west CWA and allowing for slight chance of shower or storm confined to near Columbus southward late this afternoon).
Currently, the activity is sliding northeast along with the trough, leaving behind lingering cloud cover and cool temperatures today. This will set the stage for a bit of fog later tonight, thanks to the abundant ground moisture, but might also might bring another round of scattered storms late tonight/early Tuesday morning as the nocturnal jet associated with the exiting trough points its nose at eastern Kansas.
The flow aloft will increase tonight through Tuesday, as a 120KT upper jet on the south side of the trough stretches from the Oregon coast eastward across Wyoming. A cold front will drop south across Colorado Tuesday evening. Northerly winds behind the front will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities, bringing an end to the Red Flag conditions.
Liked how the CONSShort and ECAM visibility output try to bring some fog into the higher terrain, especially the Coteau and Leola hills region. Can see this happening perhaps as we get moist upslope flow into the higher terrain where there will already be low CIGs (more confidence in this for the Coteau). Then, focus shifts to Tuesday with the approach of the cold front.
Warmer temperatures today with a southwesterly wind 5 to 15 mph. For tonight, southwesterly flow aloft will become reestablished as an upper trough digs from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin.
250 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Quiet this evening as upper level ridging propagates across the forecast area. increasing moisture return ahead of developing lee trough is expected to produce low stratus advecting from Minnesota westward into the eastern and central Dakotas. However, with the strength of the synoptic system, severe weather can not be ruled out most anywhere along and east of the highway 83 corridor.
VFR conditions with lowering cigs very late in the fcst as upper trough approaches by end of TAF period.
1120 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Drier and warmer air will be over the area today and tonight. Temps will be much warmer today, with highs in the 80s acrs the southeast plains, and in the 70s in the San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley. Breezy southwest winds are expected over the higher elevations today and portions of the San Luis Valley.
346 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Upper and surface ridging remains over the area.
High pres ridging acrs the southeastern states is providing a light southerly wind. Dewpoints/relative humidity will remain on the high side yielding hot and humid days followed by warm and muggy nights. This between low pressure developing over the southeast CONUS and a high pressure ridge holding from Texas then northeast through the mid-Mississippi valley. High pressure holding over the southeastern CONUS and adjacent coastal waters will maintain a light predominantly onshore flow through much of the week.
333 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 After seasonable conditions today, temperatures will lower to several degrees below normal the next couple of days then even cooler later in the week.
232 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Radar shows a few small showers popping up over my western zones where higher PWATs and heating on the ridges are forcing some local convection. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
Expect more fall-like weather conditions later this week, with cooler temperatures and stronger winds. Near normal temperatures today will cool to around 15 degrees below normal by the end of the work week with the cooler temperatures carrying over into the weekend.
Southerly winds however will be on the increase over the next 48 hours as cooler air passes to our north in a trough and tightens the gradients. A cold front slowly sinking southward late in the day will be where the better focus for precipitation will occur.
Scattered thunderstorms are affecting parts of the higher terrain out to our west. However, since these thunderstorms are mainly driven by diurnal processes, as well as elevated terrain effects, expect most of this activity to weaken as the sun sets, they move east off of the higher terrain, and the atmosphere stabilizes.
Upper low continues to shift into PacNW with center located off Vancouver BC coast.
151 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak high pressure remaining in the region.
An upper level trough over the western states and the Subtropical Ridge from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Mexico remains today through Tuesday.
Strengthening near-zonal flow on Tuesday expected to lead to deepening of surface trof across Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, with dry southwest winds expected as trof migrates eastward across the area.
355 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over srn Appalachia remaining in control of our region with a light onshore low-level flow holding in place. Could see a little improvement by late in the week as weak ridging is progged to redevelop aloft. Light and mostly onshore flow should continue through the period with high pressure remaining anchored to our east or northeast.
1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 219 AM CDT High pressure will build across the western Great Lakes today while the cold front that passed over the region yesterday settles over the Ohio Valley. East to northeast flow will help temper afternoon highs today, especially near Lake Michigan where onshore flow will keep temperatures only in the low 70s. Much better chances will be well to our west on the nose of the low level jet over the mid Missouri Valley overnight. Deubelbeiss 219 AM CDT Expect a warm pattern throughout much of the extended time frame as an increasingly amplified ridge takes hold over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS.
Convection was occurring across southwest Kansas ahead of a mid level trough moving out of Colorado. Band of showers and thunderstorms had developed over central and north central Kansas in the nose of the low level jet within an area of good 850mb moisture transport. The warm front over northern Oklahoma is forecast to lift northward across Kansas through the day today as the mid level wave traverses the state. Temperatures will be affected by clouds and precipitation with north central and parts of northeast Kansas clearing out in the afternoon will experience the warmer temperatures. On Tuesday a strong mid/upper level trough will be moving over the northern Rockies and lifting out over the northern plains. This will cause the lee side trough to deepen and the pressure gradient to become maximized over eastern KS.
/issued 337 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across South Texas today, with mainly zonal flow across West Central Texas. High resolution models indicate a disturbance moving east across West Texas this afternoon, along the northern periphery of the ridge. in the low to mid 90s. Mild overnight temperatures are forecast, with lows mainly in the low 70s.