Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Wednesday) An upper high is centered over southwestern Utah/northwestern Arizona, and an upper trough is over the Texas coast. With 850mb temperatures beginning to climb, expect highs on Wednesday to be a little warmer than today, (mid 80s to around 90 with a couple of lower 90s possible). (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) After several days of cloudy and wet weather, thanks to the pesky upper low over east central Texas, we'll start to see a little more sunshine again later this week. The upper ridge over the Four Corners region will start to nose back into northwest Texas while the upper low shifts down toward Corpus Christi and Brownsville.
1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Yesterday's trough is racing east across South Dakota this morning, with the H5 ridge shifting back west across UT/NV. This is setting up better ridging across our region for the short term, with northwesterly flow aloft. These areas will be close enough to the ridge that it will be tough for convection to stay together this afternoon. Wednesday will see another weak wave rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge.
351 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A broad area of high pressure south of the region will weaken and move east on Wednesday, with southwest flow pushing moist air into the Ohio Valley.
Includes the latest 0618Z/0718Z Aviation Forecast High pressure continues to influence all terminals w/ prevailing VFR conds for the forecast period. Best chances will remain over the southeast with whats left of the aforementioned shear axis and a weak cold front approaching from the northwest.
Chance of severe remains roughly the same as shear remains weak along a cold front with decent convergence. There is strong forcing along a cold front that is associated with an upper level trough axis, which will slide southeast across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. However, will continue to call for slightly cooler highs in the upper 80s across our northwest zones given the early development of storms and expanding clouds early in the afternoon across these northwestern zones. The big story will be the cooler temperatures behind the front with highs in the lower 80s.
233 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Lift associated with an upper trough has mostly moved off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon however, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still occur over our south central South Dakota zones for a few more hours. Although MUCAPE has risen to around 1000J/KG over most of the forecast area, large scale subsidence with weak ridging between the departing upper trough and another upper trough currently over eastern Montana is limiting convective development to a few short-lived showers so far this afternoon. Shear and synoptic scale lift will increase are the next upper trough begins to affect the region this afternoon and tonight. On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build toward the area from the west with a return to warmer temperatures.
126 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa continues to live up to expectations for the Lower and Middle Keys. Periods of tropical storm force sustained winds and frequent wind gusts west of the Seven Mile Bridge will gradually become less frequent by early this afternoon. Thereafter, a subtropical ridge will build across the Florida Peninsula.
140 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed a ridge of high pressure across the western CONUS this afternoon, placing the region under northwest flow. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front was pushing through the region from the northwest, with broken lines of thunderstorms slowly tracking southeastward. For Wednesday, northwest flow redevelops aloft on the backside of the passing trough, with high pressure still to the west. A weak disturbance rounds the northern side of the western CONUS ridge Wednesday night, but any precipitation associated with it should stay in the Dakotas.
Convection is ongoing along a cold front that is currently draped from northwestern Nebraska into south-central Minnesota, with storms pulsing up and dying as they propagate away from the front. Going forward into the evening, this cold front is expected to slowly push to the east- southeast. Showers and storms will continue to be possible into mid-morning in areas of far southeast Nebraska, with a cooler and quieter day on tap for Wednesday.
324 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 An upper level low currently over the northwest Gulf of Mexico coastline will begin to lift northward ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa later tonight and on Wednesday.
Temperatures along and south of this front have warmed in the mid- to upper 80s and dew points have climbed into the lower to mid-70s. as cold front tracks into the Ohio River Valley. Cooler air advects into the forecast area and high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to middle 70s.
Upper level ridging currently resides over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Mid Atlantic coast. Height falls are expected Wednesday as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest and Elsa continues to progress northward. These upper level disturbances will help weaken and eventually will remove any ridging over the area, leading to better chances for precipitation. At the surface, high pressure will stay to our east over the Mid Atlantic states while low pressure begins to sneak in from the west Wednesday. A slight ridge/valley split may develop as clouds thin over the area.
253 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Showers and storms are struggling to form this afternoon as the low levels ended up being more stable than models suggested. On Wednesday, a ridge will strengthen over the Intermountain West with mid level height and temperature increases over our forecast area. Precipitable water values drop off rapidly as dry air within the ridge pushes the moisture out of our area.
225 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Cold front lays across southern South Dakota. High pressure covers most of Colorado. Upper ridge continues to build into the CWA.
450 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warm and humid weather can be expected until a cold front approaches Wednesday and increases rain chance across the region. A deepening trough digging across the Midwest and Great Lakes will back flow to the southwester over the Upr OH on Wednesday. The intrusion of the longwave trough with better jet support is likely to maintain moist convection through the night. The trough and its associated sfc cold front will slowly progress east through the end of the week, promoting continued precipitation chance and moderating of temperature.
Hard to tell coverage of this MVFR deck until the higher clouds depart with system moving thru central/southern MN into Wisconsin.
524 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Cold front lays across southern South Dakota. High pressure covers most of Colorado. Upper ridge continues to build into the CWA.
838 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Lower Keys, effective with the 8 PM intermediate advisory. Southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph in the Lower Keys will continue to decrease through the evening. Grids and products have been updated to reflect the lowering of the warning. A dome of high pressure centered just west of the Azores will place a ridge axis over the southern Florida Peninsula.
/issued 405 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): The MCV that has been spinning across portions of Deep South Texas since late last night has slowly worked toward the lower Texas coast after drenching most locations today.
Better chances continue to be the second half of the night as a warm front and higher theta e gradient lift into the region. Discussion: A weak upper trough is located across the Mississippi Valley with southerly flow bringing a warm front northward late tonight. Higher rain chances are expected in this timeframe as a series of upper troughs will bring a wet pattern to the region.
It will be a few degrees warmer in the Urban heat island locations and a few degrees cooler in the sheltered higher locations.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): The MCV that has been spinning across portions of Deep South Texas since late last night has slowly worked toward the lower Texas coast after drenching most locations today.
752 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A broad area of high pressure south of the region will weaken and move east on Wednesday, with southwest flow pushing moist air into the Ohio Valley.
These widespread showers/storms will keep high temperatures down in the upper 70s to low 80s but dewpoints will be in the low 70s. These lower surface temperatures and near moist adiabatic lapse rates in the high PW atmosphere will keep instability values rather low on Wednesday. Broad weak troughing continues across the forecast area overnight Wednesday.
Wednesday will be slightly cooler but still close to record highs.
An upper level low currently over the northwest Gulf of Mexico coastline will begin to lift northward ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa later tonight and on Wednesday.
1034 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A broad area of high pressure south of the region will weaken and move east on Wednesday, with southwest flow pushing moist air into the Ohio Valley.
527 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Lift associated with an upper trough has mostly moved off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon, however isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still occur over our south central South Dakota zones for a few more hours. Although MUCAPE has risen to around 1000J/KG over most of the forecast area, large scale subsidence with weak ridging between the departing upper trough and another upper trough currently over eastern Montana is limiting convective development to a few short-lived showers so far this afternoon. Shear and synoptic scale lift will increase as the next upper trough begins to affect the region this afternoon and tonight. On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build toward the area from the west with a return to warmer temperatures.
Weak 1017 mb high pressure over TN and ridging westward into the Ozarks was continuing a sw flow of very warm and humid/tropical air into central/se IL. A cold front over central WI and southern MN will slip southward to the IL/WI border by midday Wed, and into northern IL. Heat indices to peak in the low to mid 90s Wed afternoon over much of the area, warmest in southeast IL. The cold front to sweep through southeast IL during Thu, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms around for areas east of I-55. Quiet wx briefly returns to the area Thu night into early Fri with cooler lows Thu night in the lower 60s central IL and mid 60s se IL.
Minimum temperatures tonight trend in the lower to upper 50s across southeastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cold front lays across southern South Dakota. High pressure covers most of Colorado. Upper ridge continues to build into the CWA.
A weak upper level trough is just off the coast at this time, and it will move onshore later tonight.
Weakening and narrowing upper ridge still hanging on and no appreciable convection as of yet.
401 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Key Points: -Cold front will bring the threat of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday.
High pressure will strengthen over Arizona over the coming days.
802 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Key Points: -Cold front will bring the threat of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday.
/Issued 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ A few specks of reflectivity showing up on radar this afternoon as moisture in the low levels returns to the area. Weak upper wave to move E-SE from the high plains later tonight and tomorrow and will push a weak surface boundary towards the area tomorrow.
723 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper high is centered over southwestern Utah/northwestern Arizona, and an upper trough is over the Texas coast. With 850mb temperatures beginning to climb, expect highs on Wednesday to be a little warmer than today, (mid 80s to around 90 with a couple of lower 90s possible). (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) After several days of cloudy and wet weather, thanks to the pesky upper low over east central Texas, we'll start to see a little more sunshine again later this week. The upper ridge over the Four Corners region will start to nose back into northwest Texas while the upper low shifts down toward Corpus Christi and Brownsville.
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 High pressure continues to control the weather across the CWA.
504 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Ridging to the west of the area will keep door open for disturbances dropping in from the northwest tonight. Ridge axis shifts into the area tomorrow boosting temperatures to around 100 degrees in many areas. Late in the day into the evening hours a series of disturbances will duck under the ridge and push through the area.
622 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa provided a bona fide hurricane season first inning for the Lower Keys this morning. The gradient was also sharp across the Lower Keys, with Big Pine occasionally gusting to 30 to 40 mph, while locations west of the Saddlebunches gusting to 40 to 50 mph regularly. Only recently have wind gusts come down to the lower end of tropical storm force at Smith Shoal and Sand Key. A dome of high pressure centered just west of the Azores will place a ridge axis over the southern Florida Peninsula.
Today overall is forecast to be sunny, hot, and dry reaching into the 80s and lower 90s across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle with the ridge building into the CWA.
A few SHRAs are possible overnight and during the early morning hours, with the bulk of the precipitation remaining south of the area, near and east of the low centered just west of CRP.
Synoptically, a deep trough will push southeastward out of Manitoba starting late this afternoon. This is in contrast to previous guidance that closed the low as it moved across the International Border. MOS guidance is running a bit cooler than the blended guidance at this time, likely due to persistent low to mid-level cloud cover. As such, went with the cooler end of guidance for this forecast issuance.
Better chances continue to be the second half of the night as a warm front and higher theta e gradient lift into the region. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 70 85 71 90 / 50 50 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 69 85 70 87 / 50 50 70 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 84 69 88 / 50 50 70 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 67 82 67 85 / 40 50 70 50 50.
With light winds and only a few clouds temperatures will be on the cooler side Thursday morning, ranging from the lower to mid 50s in southwest MN to around 60 in central SD. On Thursday night the low level jet gains strength and should bring an area of showers and thunderstorms, with isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
A large summertime high pressure center remains positioned across the western United States, not helping the ongoing drought in those areas.
Cold front continues to drift south across the Panhandles today. Overall, high pressure continues to strengthen over the Four Corners. With the cold front moving through today there should be enough subsidence behind the front to keep conditions dry this evening and through the day on Thursday. Temperatures again today will likely be close to 10 degrees below normal today, but finally start climbing back to near normal temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, the evening water vapor imagery indicates a weak upper trough axis lingering along the TX/SW LA coasts into ECntrl LA and Cntrl MS, with this feature expected to linger overnight through much of Wednesday. Isolated convection redevelopment can not be ruled out near this trough axis along the far Srn counties and parishes in Deep E TX/Cntrl LA, and thus have maintained slight chance pops overnight for these areas. Did not make many tweaks to the ongoing min temps, as these look to be in good shape as readings fall into the lower 70s.
Throughout the period, there is a persistent mid/upper level ridge sitting off to the west across the Rocky Mountains.
1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper high is centered over southwestern Utah/northwestern Arizona, and an upper trough is over the Texas coast. With 850mb temperatures beginning to climb, expect highs on Wednesday to be a little warmer than today, (mid 80s to around 90 with a couple of lower 90s possible).
Otherwise today's convective potential will be INVOF GDP Mtns where there will be still be the presence of a mid-level theta-e ridge and in the Davis/Glass Mtns too where moist upslope flow and daytime heating will be sufficient to lift parcels to LFC. The mid-level ridge centered INVOF srn UT will expand today and moreso Thu, thus high temps will warm a few degrees, but still be normal. PoPs will decrease further Thu as the mid-level mst axis dissipates with increased presence of the mid-level ridge.
The heaviest QPF axis remains just out of the CWA, but any shift westward in the track of the low center will increase the potential for heavier rainfall across the southeast CWA.
With an area of low pressure to our west this morning gradually drifting over the area, we should have plenty of forcing for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Cloud cover will help to keep temperatures cooler today, with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tonight the area of lower pressure gets picked up by the upper-level trough and pushed off to the east, possibly giving us a bit of a break in the showers.
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the eastern US, however a change will arrive this afternoon. This will be associated with a weaker Low pressure system and passing frontal boundary. Unsettled weather will remain across the region through the end of week, with a stronger Low pressure system expected this weekend. With High pressure across the eastern US, and an approaching weak Low pressure system, this will bring chances for scattered showers and storms today. Heading into the evening and overnight, Low pressure core is expected to track through northern Illinois, with a frontal boundary tracking through the region overnight.
Another low probability item is the potential for some outlying brief frost Thursday morning under a good radiational cooling, a dry air mass under the centroid of high pressure with light winds.
and Thursday Waves of low pressure moving along a cold front moving slowly south will produce overrunning rain over all but far northern Wisconsin today.
159 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 A blanket of cloud cover has been streaming into Middle TN over the last several hours, keeping temperatures slightly warmer this morning. Radar has shown a few showers attempting to make their way into our southern counties, but dying in the dry air aloft and subsidence of the weak high pressure over the region. This will change as we make our way into the daylight hours with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected to finally overcome the high pressure and move in from the south.
The convergent, cyclonic nature of the system is allowing for continued augmentation of the low-level bulk shear profile, and hence a few miniature supercells continue to develop over the nearshore/offshore waters of Collier County and locations west of Lake Okeechobee. A vertically stacked western Atlantic ridge is forecast to build into South Florida. The return of onshore flow over the east coast/metros should allow for slightly cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 80s, while the interior and gulf coast may experience temperatures in the low 90s through most of this period.
With the passage of the cold front, cooler temps are expected. Models suggest that the pattern will amplify slightly through the week as ridging builds over the western CONUS into western Canada with downstream troughing into eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeast U. Thursday, high pressure and cool dry air will dominate the area with light northeast winds. highs will only range from the mid 60s near Lake Superior to the lower 70s south.
Skies should continue to clear through the afternoon, giving temperatures a chance to warm some with highs expected in the low 70s near the Turtle Mountains to mid 80s in the southwest. Later today, a mid level perturbation in the 500 mb flow is expected to ride over the top of the western CONUS ridge, allowing thunderstorms to initiate off higher terrain across western and central Montana.
Flow around an upper low over South TX continues pull moisture into the region along the western part of now TS Elsa. Cloud cover and rainfall will keep high temperatures cooler today with temperatures generally in the 80s. A weak upper trough will move into the region from the NW on Thursday resulting in another chance for showers and storms. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday.
/Today through Thursday/ A weak upper-level trough axis across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into Louisiana will provide the necessary instability to support widespread convection across the region this afternoon along a northward moving sea-breeze boundary. North of I-20, where convection could be delayed and more limited, temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s. Under fairly stable conditions, temperatures overnight are forecast to fall into the lower 70s. However, coverage will be slightly less than today based on building upper-level ridging from the west. Afternoon high temperatures to range from the upper 80s across deep east Texas to the lower 90s across the I-30 corridor.
An upper trough was across Iowa, with water vapor satellite showing a plume of moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the upper trough will slowly work its way east as the plume of moisture from the Gulf continues to work north. Will go with high chance category to low end likely category PoPs across the area today, with the highest PoPs in the afternoon. The upper trough will move into the forecast area tonight, and a surface cold front will follow by 12Z. With the upper trough still in the area and plentiful moisture, will once again go with high chance category to likely PoPs, with the highest PoPs to the east of the front. Given the high moisture content of the atmosphere, locally heavy rain is possible with any storm.
154 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 07z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. Trough focus for TSRA early this morning with one cluster heading into southwest SD and another coming out of southeast MT. High pressure over southern SK funneling east/southeast upslope flow across the SD plains resulting in stratus/patchy fog development. Weather for the second half of the week will revolve around upper ridge. Today/tonight, upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Thursday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA bringing toasty temperatures.
The low moves very little on Thursday, with decent temperature and moisture advection ahead of it. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s west, with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s east to the lower 60s west.
An upper level trough over the north-central Plains sweeps east across the Ohio Valley and into the northeastern U. General weak troughing will be present over our area, a combination of the weakness left behind from the previous trough and the aforementioned one moving in. will be present thanks to Elsa to the east Wednesday, however in its wake high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic starts to nose its way into our region by Thursday. The combination of far reaching outer bands from Elsa, weak troughiness/PVA aiding in lift, and abundant moisture in the area will foster widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into evening.
Winds are light with ridge axis moving across the area and temps are ranging in the lower to mid 60s. With the cold front having pushed through the region earlier this evening, the wx focus for this morning will be on the slow moving ridge axis through the area.