Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front on target to reach Billings about 6 am tomorrow. Thin high clouds were spilling over the ridge into the area this afternoon. Baroclinic leaf associated with upper trough along the Pacific Coast, was seen on satellite imagery approaching the region. System's cold front was seen moving E through the Pacific NW. The trough will approach the area tonight and an upper jet will bring right-rear quadrant divergence to the area on Saturday. Models bring the cold front into the west after 06Z tonight, which will cut off any gusty gap winds. The upper trough will cross the area Sat.
539 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Filling surface/upper low moving into western Oklahoma with northerly flow over the CWA this afternoon. Expect clear skies across the CWA overnight into Saturday as a short upper ridge passes across. After a cool night it will be warmer again Saturday with highs attaining the 60s over most areas outside of the mtns.
Strong and large area of high pressure off the mid- Atlantic coast will maintain onshore winds tonight into the weekend.
However, much drier flow is on its way, as evident by the clear skies and large dew point depressions seen over much of northwest Ontario and northeast Manitoba closer to the center of an area of high pressure west of Hudson Bay. The temperatures could be substantially cooler for inland areas, especially northern Minnesota, if the skies clear more than anticipated given the light wind flow away from the Lake. Much of the western Lake Superior shoreline will only climb to the 30s Saturday because of the clouds and cool flow from the Lake, but areas well inland, with the better sunshine, should reach the lower to middle 40s.
Trough will keep things well mixed and preclude any fog from forming while keeping temperatures up about 10 degrees over last night's readings. TFJ With the exception of one weak wave of low pressure Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, the short term forecast period looks to be rather un-eventful. This next weather disturbance will ride along a Pacific NW trough, but will not have near enough moisture to make enough of an impact for most of our CWA.
The anticipated deep upper low will center across western Kansas while at the surface, a dryline will reside from central Texas up to south central Nebraska.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL EXTEND WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CAN HELP TO SHIFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK NORTH AGAIN.
234 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO TO ELONGATE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION FILLING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE A SOUTHERN CENTER INTENSIFIES AND SCOOTS INTO KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE WE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE ELONGATED TROUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STATE WITH INCREASING SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SOMEWHAT SPRING PATTERN OF UPPER LOWS DRIFTING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IS IN FULL SWING FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PAC COAST REGION WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LEAVES THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE WITH PASSING CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOWS SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AND THE DRY COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
252 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across central and potentially eastern portions of southwest Kansas this evening as short range models indicate an extremely strong closed off upper level low lifting northward across eastern Wyoming tonight. Meanwhile, a series of H5 vort maxima will cycle northeast into the high plains of western Kansas within an increasingly divergent flow this evening as the trough axis pivots, becoming more negatively tilted. with an attendant warm front stretching into northern Kansas. Much cooler temperatures can be expected for lows tonight, at least across west central and portions of southwest Kansas, as the aforementioned cold front begins to push through western Kansas late tonight. Highs in the lower 70s(F) are still possible closer to the Oklahoma border.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
Expect lows in the low to mid 60s inland, and upper 60s along the coast.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR LATEST WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES TO PASS TO OUR NORTH WHILE PROVIDING AN ABUNDANCE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WHICH HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT CURRENT UPPER LOW WEAKENING TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE A NEW LOW DEVELOPS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS/NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SPINS WESTWARD INTO WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AT SHOWING MUCH OF THE MIDLVL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COLORADO AND THEN CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AROUND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
117 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND OUT OF UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
326 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LONG STORY SHORT THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT REDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA.
258 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
505 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
125 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
129 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Thunderstorms may redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA.
521 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY WEDNESDAY.
1157 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW. WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE UT AND CO BORDER SOUTHEAST OF VERNAL THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA REINFORCING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLATEAUS. SO ONLY MINOR ROAD IMPACTS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS PASSES. WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING.
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA.
PLENTY OF CAPE SHOULD BE REALIZED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW POINT REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S.
REMAINS PARKED OVER THESE AREAS A 2ND UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN KS. WITH THE LOWER-DECK FLOW SLOWLY BACKING. LIFTS NNE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW WOULD LIFT ALMOST DUE N. REACHING I-70 LATE THIS EVE BY WHICH TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH ESE. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA.
The base of a large upper trough over CO is currently brushing the northern half of the area. Will leave the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren't likely to die down until after sunset. The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but likely not make it much past Lubbuck.
SUSPECT LATENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/SHALLOW NATURE OF POST FRONTAL MOISTURE SCOUR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STRATUS REFORMATION/SWD EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER SFC TEMPS/CLOSER TO BLEND. ALSO HAVE RELEGATED POPS MUCH LATER TO PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN TEMPORARY MID LEVEL LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AS COMPLEX CENTRAL ROCKIES/SWRN STATES VORTEX LIFTS THROUGH PLAINS/TOWARDS MID MS VLY IN HIGHLY NEG TILT FASHION. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BETTER S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
144 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HYDRO CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast Illinois. along a developing warm frontal feature.
152 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL PROVIDE A CHOICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
141 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING.
Later tonight, a Pacific cold front will push from west to east across West Central Texas and bring another round of thunderstorms. Dry and Cooler. The Pacific front will quickly push convection east of West Central Texas and bring drier air, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WL HV A CPL OF COOLER DAYS. WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ON SUN BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER OUR REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WEAK RIDGING LINGERS CLOSER TO HOME. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS FOUND.
A FAIRLY POTENT CLASH OF AIR MASSES IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS COLORADO LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WET AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. AS UPPER LOW BREAKS APART AND ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AND THE OTHER LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO A QUITE PLEASANT DAY.
WINDS HAVE EVEN PUSHED FURTHER ENE REINFORCING THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LATEST HI-RES NAM ARW WEST SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE FIRING STORMS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 IN THE CRESTON NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT 21Z. MLCAPE VALUES RISE TO OVER 1000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE SOUNDINGS. A MULTI-MODAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS SHOULD ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH A RESIDUAL VORT LOBE BEING SHEARED OUT ACROSS ND. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL by early this evening.
336 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
The models have performed poorly the past few days with the low-level moisture and today will probably be no exception. An eastward moving Pacific cold front will overtake the retreating dryline, shoving low-level moisture and ongoing convection east toward I-35 after sunset. Thunderstorms may grow upscale into an MCS as the cold front moves across the CWA this evening, developing as far west as a San Angelo-Abilene line. Temperatures today will warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.
233 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PRONOUNCED CLEARING IS NOW TAKING PLACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES JUST ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE MID WEEK.
221 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTESVILLE THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. MUCH COOLER WED AS COOL WEDGE ESTABLISHES.
Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor, and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks. Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours.
344 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW TEMPS INTO THE LOW 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (DUE TO LIGHT NE WINDS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE 12Z NAM12 FORECAST BUFR SOUNDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST BUT STILL UNDER ITS INFLUENCE OVER EAST TN.
THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AND HAD DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD COME ON SHORE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
THE LOW OVER WYOMING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND A NEW DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST. THE SHOWERS THAT ARE AROUND MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
Slgt risk advances eastward for Day 2, with warm front induced convection early Wed, followed by best chance strong to svr storms Wed pm/evening as warm front lifts north, and cold front takes shape/approaches from the west.
CAM'S PLACE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 18Z WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD HINDER NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT. BUT THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IN ALL THIS IS: HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN ADVANCE GIVEN MORNING OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BUT FORECAST IS NOT REAL CLEAR CUT.
259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH MID-LEVEL LOW AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST IA. CONVEYER BELT RAIN WRAPPED AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE IMPEDED BY DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH. RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD PRETTY MUCH REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING.
157 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER.
EARLY THIS MORNING A POCKET OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT TO NEAR FREEZING. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A MOIST. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING. ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
350 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
349 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW TEMPS INTO THE LOW 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (DUE TO LIGHT NE WINDS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
558 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
239 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
236 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY HAS BEEN THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT SITTING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW AND WARM FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE LOW THEN SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND FOR MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
500MB TROUGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD PULL UP STATIONARY IN THE AFTERNOON AND RETURN NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE WEAK FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS.