Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The previously issued Winter Weather Advisories remain on track, and no changes were made with an average of 4 to 8 inches expected at the higher elevations. Colder air associated with the trough will begin to infiltrate the region with 700mb temperatures dropping to 3 to 6 degrees C below zero. The trough axis will lift northeast into the Northern Plains early Friday morning with precipitation ending across all but the Elkhead, Park, Gore, Flat Top, and Elk Mountain ranges as a result. Showers are projected to become more convective Friday afternoon with impacts diminishing across the higher terrain as daytime temperatures warm.
A weak cold front is moving through our area early this morning. Little or no cold advection is noted with the front and highs will be little changed from yesterday, though much warmer for eastern areas that were under the clouds. A stronger cold front approaches late Friday.
A trough of low pressure at the surface stretches from SW Mississippi into SW Louisiana. The focus of the severe weather is shifting east and out of the local area, however with the surface boundary and upper trough still in the area thunderstorms will remain possible. Farther northwest a cold front stretches from around Shreveport to San Antonio. A modest area of high pressure behind the front will quickly move east over the gulf coast and another area of low pressure will develop over the Southern plains.
Regarding temperatures, widespread cloud cover will keep things cooler than in previous days across the area.
Overall, we are returning to a ridging pattern today with mostly sunny skies (once the clouds burn off this morning). Temperatures will rebound considerably and could be as much as 10 degrees warmer today.
555 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: SHRA/TSRA are moving out of the forecast area early this morning, but expect some redevelopment later this morning and early this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. After a break in the threats this morning in the wake of the MCS, a second threat for severe storms is expected to redevelop by afternoon ahead of the cold front as steep lapse rates remain juxtaposed over a very moist boundary layer. Otherwise, expect winds to be gusty from the west as conditions dry following the cold frontal passage later this afternoon.
After a break in the threats this morning in the wake of the MCS, a second threat for severe storms is expected to redevelop by afternoon ahead of the cold front as steep lapse rates remain juxtaposed over a very moist boundary layer. Otherwise, expect winds to be gusty from the west as conditions dry following the cold frontal passage later this afternoon.
/issued 342 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/ A low pressure system will continue to affect the Mid-South today. The low will track across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee during the day today. The high will only stay over the area through Friday morning before the next system begins to approach the Mid-South. Another low pressure system will begin to move into Northeast Arkansas Friday afternoon. Some storms may become severe ahead of the front as the upper level trof transitions from positively tilted to negatively tilted.
After the rain chances Friday, we enter a drier pattern as the upper level trof moves of to the east and high pressure builds to the west putting us on the fringe of an upper level ridge.
Eastern Pacific ridging builds eastward into region, bringing dry weather across the area. Afternoon highs will be similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. On Friday northerly winds will continue but will weaken slightly as the ridge axis shifts closer.
The inverted trough will allow for a nose of warmer air in central SD to the James Valley, so highs will top out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Areas in the trough will be the warmest and the most unstable with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday in the upper trough with northerly flow at the sfc.
/issued 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/ An upper trough is over Missouri with northwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Surface winds will mostly be out of the west today across the area with a broad upper trough overhead. Winds will begin to shift to the northwest on Friday in advance of a cold front and temperatures will be slightly higher than today.
1008 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 High pressure has shifted off the mid-Atlantic coast ahead of a complex weather system that is expected to move through the southeast U. VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the period, then deteriorating conditions expected after 06Z as a cold front moves through the region. Interaction between high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast and a weather system approaching the southeast U.
Areas in central MO and west central MO are still observing some light rain this morning, as the low pressure system in southern MO gradually moves east. Behind the low, where winds are light and there is plenty of low level moisture, a low stratus deck and patchy fog has developed. The low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate from west to east this morning, with everyone seeing mostly sunny to partly sunny skies this afternoon. Flooding is not expected either, with the higher PWATs to our south, and therefore the heaviest rainfall.
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Low pressure lifts through the Ohio valley today and spreads rain across the area. Friday will be dry and a few degrees warmer, but will be followed by wet and cool weather again this weekend. Otherwise, a vigorous upper lower was over far southwest Missouri early this morning.
This actually places the higher/ 1+ inch QPF more over the Plains which would almost certainly fall as rain and not pose any threat for winter impacts.
/Issued 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/ Latest upper level analysis reveals closed low moving into western MO with fairly broad area of northwest flow across the western CONUS. At the surface, winds were light out of the west with area of weak high pressure in the vicinity. Later in the evening, a weak cold front will move south across the central plains as the 500mb jet strengthens. Some gusty winds can't be ruled out given the high based nature of these showers and storms, however. On Friday, the main cold front will move through the area, with a secondary push of cool air Friday night (although the cooler air is offset to our east).
A low stratus deck and patchy fog has developed across the area on the back side of the low currently moving east through southern MO. As the low moves east and temperatures start to warm this morning, the low cloud deck and fog will dissipate. High pressure will nose into the area today, making the determination of a prevailing wind direction difficult.
SPC mesoanalysis shows a nose of instability (MLCAPEs up to 1500 J/kg) into the western sections of the CWA at 2000 UTC, just ahead of the advancing surface cold front.
As such, temperatures overnight will be slightly cooler than last night with lows falling into the 50s northwest of I-65 and 60s southeast of I-65.
At 1 pm, temperatures ranged from the low 40s across central WI in the thicker stratus, to the mid 50s to lower 60s in sunshine across southeast MN/northeast IA. For tonight, we'll be watching a mid-level wave of low pressure rotate southeast into the area with some increase in pv-ad215vection and slight uptick in 850-700mb moisture transport. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across central WI in that drier air, to the 40-45 degree range along and west of the Mississippi. That mid-level trough hangs over the area through Friday night for continued clouds but looks like shower chances will be pretty much shoved out of the area by midnight. Intermittent periods of precipitation and dry conditions are expected through the period as upper level troughs swing through the region.
Clouds could play havoc with high temps and for now have gone on the cooler side of guidance in the middle to upper 60s.
/issued 1050 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/ Weak cold front is now making its way into the forecast area and will continue to move through during the day with some drier conditions and clearing skies. A trough of low pressure at the surface stretches from SW Mississippi into SW Louisiana. The focus of the severe weather is shifting east and out of the local area, however with the surface boundary and upper trough still in the area thunderstorms will remain possible. Farther northwest a cold front stretches from around Shreveport to San Antonio. A modest area of high pressure behind the front will quickly move east over the gulf coast and another area of low pressure will develop over the Southern plains.
Once again, per the low freezing levels, small hail is a possibility.
1103 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 All the focus is on a warm front located south of the cntrl TN Valley from west cntrl MS into south cntrl AL. Otherwise, temps later today are xpcted to be near seasonal, with highs mainly in the lower 70s/near 70F, under mostly cloudy skies. Seasonably cool with lows in the low/mid 50s.
133 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Low pressure lifts through the Ohio valley today and spreads rain across the area. Friday will be dry and a few degrees warmer, but will be followed by wet and cool weather again this weekend. Otherwise, a vigorous upper lower was over far southwest Missouri early this morning.
1112 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Light rain showers will begin to overspread the region from south to north this afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1231 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Upper level troughing over the northern Rockies will amplify over the central high plains through the period, with 500mb temperatures cooling to around -21C by Friday morning. In the wake of the associated cold front, temperatures are expected to fall back into the 40s tonight across northwestern Kansas, with the coolest readings near 40 on the higher terrain near the Colorado state line. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure will gradually build into the area for the end of the week. The large-scale pattern this morning consists of a longwave trough encompassing the central CONUS while a longwave ridge is upstream and centered over the eastern Pacific. This trough is accompanied by an upper jet which has punched into Utah. This gradient will strengthen later this afternoon into this evening with a reinforcing shot of cooler air. That being said, showery and slightly cooler weather will continue across mainly northern Utah through the day. After the passage of the trough this evening, a more stable anticyclonic northwest flow will spread into the area tonight and into tomorrow.
Widely scattered convection has developed as expected just ahead of a surface trof/weak cold front across west central Kansas. Otherwise, chances for showers and isolated storms will increase into Friday, in response to the amplifying upper trof across the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley. The relatively cool temperatures aloft, low level moisture and lift under the developing trof will result in scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms.
Tried to indicate a west-east temp gradient for highs with the warmer readings to the west.
Conditions have been muggy as a cold front moves across the region. Temperatures ahead of the front have reached into the mid to upper 70s while cooler and certainly drier air has moved in behind. This heating and continued muggy air has contributed to some redevelopment of storms along/ahead of the cold front across east and southeast Mississippi this afternoon. Following this frontal passage, dewpoints will continue to drop into the lower to mid 50s over the course of the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s while highs tomorrow reach into the upper 70s north to lower 80s south.
Expecting cooler mid-level air to steepen temperatures lapse rates from west to east with Fridays system, increasing MUCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg in southeast Oklahoma. Rain could start developing in more stable air across northwest Oklahoma as a frontal boundary/cold front moves through, with thunderstorms developing in destabilizing air across central Oklahoma.
914 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 We just sent a quick update to let the High Wind Warning expire. This actually places the higher/ 1+ inch QPF more over the Plains which would almost certainly fall as rain and not pose any threat for winter impacts.
200 PM PDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A weak weather system clips northeast Nevada Friday morning, otherwise building high pressure will lead to warmer weather this weekend.
300 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Latest GOES water vapor imagery places a closed low across West Tennessee at this hour with an occluded front draped southward. Lingering showers will continue through the evening on the back side of the low. High pressure will build into the region late tonight bringing a brief period of dry conditions.
A few showers will linger across the KILX CWA through early evening before the low tracks further away and daytime instability wanes.
An upper level trough axis is stretched across Texas this afternoon with the winds turning cyclonically across the region. A cold front has moved to the coast and winds behind the front are from the north across our CWA. The upper trough will move off to the east and the flow will become northwesterly for this period. The low level flow will turn to the southeast tonight, but there will be minimal moisture return. Southeasterly low level flow will continue Friday and temperatures will be much warmer. Highs will range from the lower 90s to near 103. A cold front will move through the region Friday night. There won't be enough moisture available to produce any precipitation, but it will bring cooler air to our CWA.
319 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Warm front has struggled to move north from the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. The airmass ahead of the cold front has begun to destabilize with very high CAPES and marginal lapse rates. Storms north of the warm front, in the wedge, will remain elevated with some potential for hail and damaging wind gusts. South of the warm front, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes are not out of the question.
A weak trough of low pressure moving through Utah and into Colorado today will bring breezy northwest winds to the area especially the Little Colorado River Valley and eastern zones. The high temperatures today will be 5 to 10 degrees above what we saw yesterday. Temperatures today will be on average about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday's highs.
Skies cleared out earlier today in the wake of the overnight and early morning cold front. Northwest to north winds that have been gusty today under a tight pressure gradient will relax significantly later this afternoon and on into the overnight hours as weak high pressure moves eastward across the area.
Hi-res models continue to indicate that this will occur from roughly now through about 18-21Z as a cold front moves through the region. Behind the front, that looks to be moving across LA and into MS, cooler and drier air is in place. After a break in the threats this morning in the wake of the MCS, a second threat for severe storms is expected to redevelop by afternoon ahead of the cold front as steep lapse rates remain juxtaposed over a very moist boundary layer. Otherwise, expect winds to be gusty from the west as conditions dry following the cold frontal passage later this afternoon.
227 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A weak cold front dropped south across eastern Montana today that help spawn isolated-scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm (over eastern Roosevelt County). Temperatures near normal tomorrow will slowly rise through the period with them about 10 degrees warmer than normal at the end of the period.
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Low pressure lifts through the Ohio valley today and spreads rain across the area. Friday will be dry and a few degrees warmer, but will be followed by wet and cool weather again this weekend. Nonetheless sys lifts out quickly overnight followed by brief ridging Fri. Upstream cntrl Rockies sw disturbance this aftn will amplify sewd into the mid MS valley late Fri before phasing with nrn stream and wind up a fair deep cyclone through the wrn OH valley this weekend. Otherwise short amplitude ridging follows into the wrn lakes Mon ahead of next amplifying nrn stream disturbance digging into the nrn lakes late Tue. Low pressure pushes east through the southern extension of the Ohio River valley today into the evening hours.
Mainly focused on the amounts, placement, and type of precipitation over northcentral and southwest Montana through Friday, and the warmer and drier conditions expected this weekend.
An inverted trough will extend north from this feature and traverse our area through period.
231 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 An outside shot of high based showers and a cold front moving through is the only weather concern for the next 24 hours or so. A surface cyclone will move east across the southern Texas Panhandle overnight. This will drag a cold front through on Friday morning.
This will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s in most areas and slightly cooler to the east as clouds will clear later in afternoon.
Zonal flow will bring warm and dry conditions to West Texas A series of upper level troughs will be moving across the northern U.
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A series of storm systems, rotating through an upper atmospheric trough, will keep our weather unsettled for the next several days. A warm front will move into Northern NY this evening as a developing cyclone slides eastward toward West Virginia. This cyclone will pull a cold rain into NY and PA tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s. It will remain much cooler than normal with temperatures peaking in the lower 50s. Temperatures will fall into the lower or middle 30s.
Breezy conditions will also develop over the lower elevations this morning as high winds aloft mix down through the day, decreasing after sunset. With northwest flow aloft and lingering cloud cover, temperatures will be in the 60s across much of the forecast area, with lower 70s possible in the lowest portions of the Basin.
Then, a cold front will move across West Central Texas during the day on Friday.
All the focus is on a warm front located south of the cntrl TN Valley from west cntrl MS into south cntrl AL. Otherwise, temps later today are xpcted to be near seasonal, with highs mainly in the lower 70s/near 70F, under mostly cloudy skies. Seasonably cool with lows in the low/mid 50s.
We will see northerly flow and cooler conditions behind the trough axis. There will still be just a little bit of instability around with the cooler air aloft and some forecast models are giving us a slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms, but this really seems like a 20 percent chance at best and could see these chances being removed once certainty grows as we get closer. Highs should be at least 10 degrees cooler and only in the 60s. Overall this should be a rather dry and mild period with temperatures finally above freezing for a solid run of days right through the end of the forecast period.
1147 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 We just sent a quick update to let the High Wind Warning expire. This actually places the higher/ 1+ inch QPF more over the Plains which would almost certainly fall as rain and not pose any threat for winter impacts.
Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s, with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The next cold front and associated wind shift back to the N and NNE comes through the area Friday night. Lingering moisture behind yesterday's disturbance has left some patchy fog and low ceilings across the area overnight, but a weak cold front pushing southward will clear these conditions up through the mid morning. A return to southerly flow tomorrow will lead to temperatures climbing into the upper 80s across the area, with the possibility of getting into the low 90s possibly east of I- 45. Another cold front is expected to move through the area Friday evening and overnight Friday coming from the NW.
Winds will swing around to the north/northwest and become breezy Friday morning as a cold front moves through. A cold front will be passing through the region Friday with breezy northwest winds gradually turning north then northeast during the afternoon and evening. Cooler air will spill in behind the front, with highs expected to range from low 70s north to low 80s south.
At the surface a weakly organized area of low pressure and relaxed wind field is in place over the cwa beneath deep layer subsidence aloft. Models show a warm front extending from central Iowa eastward into IL. Areas along and north of the warm front should be the most favorable region for precip Friday morning, but then the focus shifts into southern Iowa by the afternoon hours. Precip chances aside, expect a mostly cloudy and cooler day with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Winds from the north have begun to shift east and will shift south/southeast as low pressure to the north continues to push east. Another weak cold front will cross the area Friday night, with north to northeasterly winds returning.
1050 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Weak cold front is now making its way into the forecast area and will continue to move through during the day with some drier conditions and clearing skies. A trough of low pressure at the surface stretches from SW Mississippi into SW Louisiana. The focus of the severe weather is shifting east and out of the local area, however with the surface boundary and upper trough still in the area thunderstorms will remain possible. Farther northwest a cold front stretches from around Shreveport to San Antonio. A modest area of high pressure behind the front will quickly move east over the gulf coast and another area of low pressure will develop over the Southern plains.
The weather will be unsettled today and tonight over most of the area due to a weather system and cold frontal passage.
Winds will become gusty tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region.
205 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A series of storm systems, rotating through an upper atmospheric trough, will keep our weather unsettled for the next several days. A warm front will move into Northern NY this evening as a developing cyclone slides eastward toward West Virginia. This cyclone will pull a cold rain into NY and PA tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s. It will remain much cooler than normal with temperatures peaking in the lower 50s. Temperatures will fall into the lower or middle 30s.
Very moist easterly flow with dewpoints in the lower 70s was about 15-20 miles offshore this evening, and radar was sampling a fine line in this same area.
High pressure will gradually build into the area for the end of the week.
We may also see some fairly good QPF along a frontogenetical band along the North Platte River basin in association with the trof axis which may produce rainfall amounts up to 1/2 inch based on the short-range ensembles.
Weak high pressure will provide drier conditions for most of Western Washington tonight and Friday.
550 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Upper level troughing over the northern Rockies will amplify over the central high plains through the period, with 500mb temperatures cooling to around -21C by Friday morning. In the wake of the associated cold front, temperatures are expected to fall back into the 40s tonight across northwestern Kansas, with the coolest readings near 40 on the higher terrain near the Colorado state line. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s.