Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, a broad dome of high pressure -- currently centered across IN -- is expected to shift slowly eastward into the eastern Great Lakes/central Appalachians by 12Z. Although winds for most locations will continue to relax with the weakening pressure gradient, a few unprotected locations may experience a light easterly wind and briefly warmer temps throughout the night. Highs tomorrow in the lower 60s will be close to seasonable norms of 61. Even a bit warmer for Sunday with highs in the lower 60s; definitely a bit above seasonable norms. Under mostly cloudy skies, even warmer for Sunday night with lows only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
303 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Fire weather will be the primary concern today as a warm front continues to surge northward across the region and southwesterly winds increase, promoting mixing, falling dewpoints and rising temperatures.
Warm air advection will spread across the area Saturday ahead of low pressure moving into the Plains. Stratus looks to fill in Saturday night with good pull of Gulf moisture ahead of cold front and low over the Plains.
320 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Weak warm front across northern MO and central IL will continue moving northward today. Upper level ridge over the Plains will move eastward into our area.
A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through most of the weekend as strong high pressure builds to our north.
1039 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 As high pressure moves east, mid level moisture will increase, with altocu developing by the end of the period.
with a warm front along the eastern edge of the forecast area. The result for the CWA are low RH readings in the low teens to single numbers. SSW will be prevalent from the surface to H5 as upper ridge shifts east of the forecast area. With the region starting off on a warmer note than this morning. this with strong WAA thru the day will bring the CWA daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s(20 to 25 degrees above normal). This combo drops RH readings into the lower to mid teens.
For tonight however, look for lows to only fall into the 40s as south breezes keeps the lower trop well mixed.
243 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure is moving over the east coast.
Most areas in west Tennessee and north Mississippi will dip to or slightly below the freezing mark by sunrise tomorrow. Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1039 mb high pressure center near Indiana and Kentucky. This is resulting in sunny skies across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring rain free weather to the forecast area tonight through Saturday night. Short term models indicate a potential for some isolated rain showers mainly across portions of East Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi as surface and upper level ridging begins to move east of the region.
1128 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure over the Mississippi Valley will expand across the Great Lakes overnight, slowly shifting to New England on Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area on Sunday evening.
300 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 The main challenge for the short term will be temperatures as an upper ridge slides over the valley (ridge axis centered over MN around 18Z).
319 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry high pressure was giving Mid Tn a very chilly morning with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 20s. As the high pressure center moves to the east coast, southerly flow will begin. A nice temperature recovery will occur, with highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s Plateau. South winds will increase Sunday, bringing warmer temperatures along with increasing cloudiness.
The highest Pops, likely will be across the far southeast. Highs will be in the lower 60s, with south winds of 10 to 20 mph.
1238 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will slowly build in this morning and the main upper level trough will glide toward the east. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridges moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
1150 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central Rockies to the Canadian prairies and a deep trough across the eastern U. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sat. With the upper ridge moving into the area, lake effect snow showers will continue to slowly wind down to the east of Marquette and this is already covered in the going forecast. Went again with the coldest I could find which was adjmos guidance which I used last night and did better than the warmer guidance.
1143 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 This afternoon a strengthening N/S-oriented sfc trof continued to strengthen from the Northwestern Plains to the CO/NM border. In fact, a small area of low pressure has developed over Eastern CO. Tonight: The afore-mentioned sfc trof camping out across the Western Plains will team with the large, strengthening high pressure to keep fairly brisk S/SW flow across the KS Neighborhood. Sat Night-Sun Night: Overall the lower-deck pattern changes little. Such behavior will drive a cold front SE into KS Mon Afternoon. The ECMWF does become much more amplified as the week progresses which, considering the strength of a vicious cyclone centered primarily over Ontario would make better sense.
High pressure will bring a return to sunshine this afternoon, and dry weather will persist for the rest of the weekend. The higher terrain from Otsego to Sullivan Counties also have wind chills this low but not the majority of the counties. Cold front moving through the CWA. Total lake effect amounts will be 2 to 4 inches of fluff for the higher terrain in the eastern Finger Lakes. Saturday midday the lake effect snow showers end quickly in place as a ridge of high pressure moves into the area. High pressure will be over the area Saturday night providing a mainly clear and cold night. High pressure over the area On Sunday will keep cold air in place but with bright March sun modifying the temperatures.
402 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will slowly build in this morning and the main upper level trough will glide toward the east. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridges moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
A trough of low pressure will also be found across eastern Colorado through tomorrow leading to southwest winds across the forecast area. A dry and quiet period continues through the weekend as an upper level ridge slowly pushes eastward across the Central Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move through the Northern Plains during the beginning of the week. This will in turn help push a cold front through the area.
/issued 742 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017/ The 00Z MFL sounding shows northeast flow in the lower levels, becoming west northwest aloft. Strengthening north northeasterly flow this evening will advect in a cooler and relatively drier airmass.
Evening update: WV/IR shows drier air coming east of the Cascades with the cold front and this should begin to shift east across the region the remainder of tonight into early Saturday. Cote' 06Z TAFS: A cold front will shift east across the region tonight into early Saturday, stalling near southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle.
315 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Surface warm front had lifted north of all but the far NE corner of the CWA (Brown County) by 09Z per surface obs and GOES-16 IR imagery. Winds looks to remain in the 10 to 20 kt range overnight, further aiding in keeping low temperatures on the higher side. The main story for Sunday and Sunday night remains the low level moisture advection. While moisture will be on the increase, chances for measurable precip don't appear to be to good as the low level moisture return remains capped by an elevated mixed layer and there is little forcing progged to break the cap. With this in mind, have kept highs across eastern portions of the forecast area in the lower and middle 60s.
However, cloud cover will gradually increase and ceilings will gradually lower from southwest to northeast as an upper trough approaches.
As high pressure slowly slides across the Great Lakes and toward western Quebec through Sat evening, it will continue interacting with broad low pressure near Labrador and Newfoundland to produce gusty W-NW winds. As the sfc and upper trofs both move off to the east Saturday, winds will increase as the gradient tightens. The passage of the upper trof will bring increased cloudiness to the state, but little if any snow is anticipated at this point. Highs on Sunday will be around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
A cold front is moving inland and cold convective cu extend far offshore in a cold upper level trough. The trough will move over the region through the weekend--temps aloft will cool to around -37c at 500mb and 850mb temps should be around -6c.
316 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Cold high pressure will extend across the eastern U. The winds will be noticeably less as the high pressure will bring light winds 10 mph or less through the day. The leading edge of the air mass change or the cold front is forecast to arrive Saturday evening. Sunny and chilly conditions are expected Sunday with the strong high pressure extending down the eastern seaboard into Florida.
Although temperatures warmed above freezing in the Helena Valley, winds there have remained fairly light, leading me and the MT Dept of Environmental Quality to believe that air quality will be slow to improve.
547 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The low stratus that had affected much of the area has steadily eroded in the last few hours over eastern KS and western MO. Fortunately, it looks like temperatures should stay above freezing so if widespread/dense fog develops, there should not be an issue of icing and slick roads. The other issue over the next day to day and a half will be with the the large upper low slowly tracking to the northeast. Mainly, with it becoming more dynamic, it looks like it's able to draw more moisture and warmer temperatures north into the area.
414 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level analysis has Rex Blocking pattern across the Central and Northern Plains with large trof entering the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with broad but weak low pressure across the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming and Montana. Tonight, weakening upper ridge remains in place with temperatures falling into the teens across the SD plains, and in the 20s across Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Thursday, weak upper low shifts northeast, replaces upper ridge, and weakens as upper trough develops over the west.
/issued 423 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017/ Over the next several days, the weather will be quiet under high pressure.
A cold front will slide South across area waters Tonight and stall. Weak high pressure will build back in from the South Thursday.
909 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure will build toward the region tonight before settling overhead Thursday.
637 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track out to sea tonight.
This has resulted in a wider area of freezing rain, most recently reaching into the Western Magic Valley. Freezing rain and rain expected to continue from Nampa through Twin Falls and Jerome overnight. KEUL could also switch to freezing rain probably early this morning.
520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier. Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the earlier arrival of the high winds.
Cold front progressed offshore quicker than previously anticipated taking the bulk of the east of the area. Temperatures fell into the low/mid 50s behind the front, but some breaks have allowed temps to climb back into the upper 50s/low 60s. For tonight, upper low will lift into the central and northern Plains with upper level troughing extending back to the south and south southwest. The upper trough combined with a potent upper level jet streak will lead to one more round of convection.
1015 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A weak area of high pressure will be over the Carolinas tonight and Thursday.
640 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over ohio and into pennsylvania tonight.
/issued 345 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A 500mb low pressure system is currently located over the Four Corners region and will gradually move eastward across the Central Plains through Thursday. At the surface a cold front is located off the Lower Texas Coast, which moved through Deep South Texas earlier this morning. Tonight, rain chances increase with another surge of deep moisture moving northward across the area and should combine with enough lift along the 500mb trough axis. After the trough axis moves through on Thursday, rain chances essentially diminish by the early afternoon with clearing skies from west to east.
Overall a dry and stable airmass will remain in place overnight with a weak northerly flow aloft over Colorado, with a ridge axis over western CO and a weak closed low over western KS.
1018 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure will pass through the region tonight with some additional light snow.
Drizzle is not expected, and most areas with fog are expected to remain above freezing. Upper low near Hays Thursday morning will move to near Kansas City by 6 pm, allowing ridging to build along the CO/KS border by afternoon.
637 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure will pass through the region tonight with some additional light snow.
High pressure remains centered over the Gulf waters.
523 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cut off upper low over western Kansas this afternoon will very slowly slide east into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
Ridging from 850 to 300 mb will be moving east of the Appalachians tonight, with a SW flow of positive theta-e advection and isentropic lift developing late tonight.
1025 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure lingers over the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas.
The low stratus over southern Wisconsin this evening is a result of a moist boundary layer beneath a shallow temperature inversion.
653 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Cloudy skies, mist and times of drizzle continue tonight as the high pressure system translates east of the area. Low pressure then approaches for Thursday night with rain, but it will be dry during the day Thursday.
Area of precipitation associated with an inverted trough situated to our west remains far upstream, and the HRRR doesn't bring the bulk of this activity into Middle Tennessee until after 06Z.
/issued 351 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ The quasi-stationary frontal boundary this afternoon has been waving back north as a warm front and is located from near KESF to KJAS. An upper level low is spinning over East New Mexico/West Texas. Disturbances moving ahead of the upper low are over-riding the front and interacting with the warm moist air mass (PWAT near 1. Wind dynamics are increasing ahead of the upper level low, with increasing shear along the frontal boundary. Rua Upper level low will gradually shift eastward tonight into Thursday with the trough axis associated with it becoming increasingly negatively tilted.
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level low situated along the front range with multiple embedded vort maxes.
637 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 The potential for drizzle and freezing drizzle exists tonight before high pressure builds in later on Thursday.
707 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Aviation Ridging over the Eastern U.
948 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over ohio and into pennsylvania tonight.
416 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cut off upper low over western Kansas this afternoon will very slowly slide east into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
948 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track out to sea tonight.
1205 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Winds have turned light and stratus has slowly settled this morning in areas along and just west of the Buffalo Ridge. Conditions will slowly improve mid- morning, with fog hanging around the higher elevation areas through noon. This morning: A narrow corridor of light rain persists across parts of Southwest Minnesota, tied to vorticity axis on the northwestern quadrant of larger upper low centered over western Illinois. Elsewhere, stratus will remain, with visibilities dipping below one mile at times along the Buffalo Ridge into mid morning.
242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Upper low was pinwheeling over southwest Kansas at mid-afternoon and will continue steadily eastward across Kansas tonight.
Wrap around moisture from this low causing cloudy skies across the CWFA. Fairly warm Monday with highs ranging from the low 60s east and low 50s west.
258 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Cirrostratus continues to stream overhead this afternoon ahead of the mid to upper low currently centered over SW KS. LCLs will also continue to lower as dewpoints climb into the low 60s. A subtle cold front will accompany the mid to upper low late tonight through tomorrow morning, with some dry air advection.
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Cold front remains along the Mid Mississippi River Valley while a warm front stretches across the Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic.
A trough in the cooler air will generate additional showers tonight through Monday morning.
High pressure will then produce dry weather through midweek, along with a warming trend.
A high pressure ridge oriented from offshore the Carolina coast back towards north Florida will gradually weaken and sag slowly to the south.
A trough will keep showers in the forecast Monday.
300 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Vertically stacked low positioned in far southwest KS will crawl east through the remainder of the day all the while a cold front accelerates south through the Panhandle and eventually the South Plains by sunset. Favorably timed surface ridging overnight and few clouds look on par for some chilly lows in our NW counties, but this ridge will remain progressive and depart the region by Monday afternoon allowing north winds to turn southeast and slowly remoisten.
Southerly flow will increase by this time, and advection of cooler, more stable air from the Gulf should mainly prevent showers/storms from developing near the coast during the late afternoon and evening. Highs are still likely to rise into the lower 80s across inland regions, with mid 70s near coastal regions of the FL Panhandle and western/central Big Bend.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The next midlevel trough is currently crossing into northern OK, with a trailing cold front across central Texas. Moisture flowing northward near the sfc will keep tempeartures above normal tomorrow, edging a degree or two higher into the low 90s for most areas.
137 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Aviation Rain will continue today and tonight as low pressure moves across Lower Michigan.
Developing warm front associated with this system to lift northward on nose of LLJ, so will see increasing chances of showers and some thunderstorms by midnight over central MO.
An increase in showers is occurring over the western CWA at the moment around the south side of the low, but these will diminish early this afternoon as the low lifts into far northern Illinois. Overnight lows will be influenced by the same cloud cover, but with the weather system pulling out to the north, slight cooler air will advect into the area, resulting in lows in the mid to upper 40s for tonight. The track of the low in both the ECMWF and the GFS is similar. A brief break in the precip for Tues and Wed as upper level ridging keeps the region dry.
Tomorrow, winds will begin to pick up a bit as a trough of low pressure develops to the west and the high moves off to the east. Even with northeast to east winds there should be some warmer 925mb temps moving in from the west as weak upper ridging approaches.
Models show the mid-level low and assoc trough lifting ne through Lower Mi this evening and then into Ontario late tonight/Mon morning. With movement of the mid-level trough the 850mb trough and weak isentropic ascent also shifts e tonight, so expect pcpn over mainly the central and eastern fcst area to diminish. Sfc temps should slip back to around freezing over the w and n central, so there may still be a little bit of icing at some locations late tonight. Rather benign weather is expected through much of the period as a slow-moving mid to upper ridge is gradually replaced by a mid-level low drifting NE from the southern plains. Lingering low-level moisture may allow for a light wintry mix for the higher terrain along Lake Superior, and patchy fog across most of the CWA, Monday night.
252 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Currently - Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in gentle to moderate east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Forecast - The ridge to our north will shift slightly southwards over the next couple of days. Rain chances will remain slim to none as low to mid level dry air and ridging will remain in the area. The south of east trajectory will bring in somewhat warmer and humid air. Gentle to moderate east breezes will trend downwards over the next couple of days as a ridge axis to our north shifts southwards.
243 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A vertically stacked low pressure system was located along the IA/MO border early this morning. A mid level deformation zone extends northward from the low, stretching from southwest MN through the west metro to northern WI. Farther east, there will be minor short waves rotating northwestward around the upper low aiding in bands of light rain across the eastern FA.
225 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds.
150 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof crossing the plains, weak upper ridge building into the nrn Rockies, and next upper trof moving onshore the west coast. At the sfc, weak inverted trof extends from nern CO through wrn SD. Pcpn will end rather quickly this evening as upper trof shifts east, and weak upper ridge builds into the nrn plains. Dry weather then expected through Monday, with warmer and drier conditions for tomorrow. Monday night, upper trof will work into the Rockies with upper low forming at the base of the trof near the Four Corners. A significant piece of upper energy expected to move from sern WY into swrn SD, with lift possibly enhanced through jet coupling, bringing widespread pcpn to our swrn portion of the cwfa along a developing inverted sfc trof.
The base of this trough will pass over the area and result in some breezy conditions for much of the area. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the Midwest Sunday night, winds should lighten up out of the west before a front moves through the Permian Basin and reach the Pecos River by early morning Monday. The result will be only slightly cooler high temperatures for the northern Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico.
141 PM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A weak trough on Monday may bring a few light showers over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties as well as the north slopes.
Farther west a Trough is developing off the coast from southern California to British Columbia. Tonight through Monday: A ridge will build out of the hot high pressure of the Four Corners and fill in behind it during this 24 hour timespan. This will develop and push a warm front across the CWA by Monday morning.
There will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front both move across the region. Temperatures through out the period will continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s, and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected.