Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM ERN MT INTO ERN WY AND NCTRL CO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE WEST COAST AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT YET TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ERN PNHDL INTO PARTS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 4C TO 6C MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE NCTRL WILL BE HELD BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH BOYD COUNTY HELD TO THE UPPER 30S.
428 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST.
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SHOT AT SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
A cold temperatures are still expected overnight, but a few degrees warmer than previously anticipated due to increasing clouds tonight. Overall, lows tonight will still be hard freeze, with readings in the lower to middle 20s.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE FINAL VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PVA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SHUT OFF AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
911 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
548 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE REGION. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS. GENERALLY THE SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS USUALLY THE COOLEST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
With the deeper snow cover across the north, coupled with a clear sky and diminishing winds, early evening temperatures have dropped into the low to mid teens in a few locations. Sundays high temperatures will struggle into the 30s, with areas in the north and nearer to any remaining snow will have a hard time reaching the freezing mark, although southerly winds will assist to counter with some weak waa.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 45 27 51 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 42 23 47 / 20 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 36 43 23 47 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 40 20 42 / 30 10 0 0.
MODELS CONCUR ON SWINGING A SHRTWV TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT. HAVE KEPT READINGS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW COVER. ANOTHER INHIBITOR TO WARMER TEMPS TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z MON. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION DEPARTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BROAD RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME SHARPLY AMPLIFIED BY MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE LOW WILL EXPAND OVER THE WEST DURING THE THANKSGIVING TIMEFRAME.
BORDEAUX WIND SPEEDS HAVE REALLY SLACKENED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF BUILDING BACK UP OVER THAT REGION. THE POSITION OF THIS LEE SIDE TROF WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY FOR WIND SPEEDS AT BORDEAUX. IF THIS TROF SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WE WILL MOST LIKELY BACK OFF ON WIND SPEEDS A BIT AT BORDEAUX THIS EVENING AS THE LEE TROF SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED EAST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED / AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR NEW IBERIA/MORGAN CITY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
627 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140+ KT JET STREAK FAVORING A SWATH OF STRONG DEFORMATION AND FGEN CENTERED AROUND 700MB AS DEEP PV ANOMALY AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STG NEG PNA SIGNAL NR TERM WILL BREAK POSITIVE THIS PD AS DEEP WRN TROUGHING DVLPS MID WEEK AND THEN ROLLS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THU-FRI. LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MODERATE SIGLY INTO TUE AND FURTHER TWD THANKSGIVING INADV OF EJECTING WRN TROUGH. WILL GENERALLY HEDGE WARMER ESP DYS 6-7/THU-FRI IN LIGHT OF SHARP LL THERMAL RIDGE BRIDGING NEWD INTO THE LAKES AND MOS TRENDS.
Some patchy light showers are possible ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
901 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING. /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY THANKSGIVING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES. PUSHING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH HEADS OFF INTO MN. THE WINDS SHOULD HELP THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MIX DOWN AND HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 30S WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING 40 DEGREES.
Despite the continued cold air advection, temperatures have rebounded slightly in areas which have received some sunshine into the lower 40s. Northwest flow early in the week will become more westerly in the wake of the trough that pushes through on Sunday.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
/ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFF THE COAST WITH SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
959 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
645 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
DID TRY TO GO A TAD COOLER ON TEMPS OVER THE SNOW FIELD SOUTH OF I-90.
741 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PASSED THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DID UP THE LOWS JUST A TOUCH. AS WELL AS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING 10 TO 12 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN IN COMING COLD FRONT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH IT MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST IMPEDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL INDICATE COLDER AIR MOVING IN QUICK ENOUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO THE AREA.
702 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SPAWN RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. THAT UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING THRU THE DAY. A FEW MRNG SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES ALSO WHERE BRIEF UPSLOPING IS PROGGED.
631 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SPAWN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES. WITH THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL PASS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. NEARLY-SATURATED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW IN BOTH THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AND IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE RIDGES.
626 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
1044 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
939 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SPAWN RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. THAT UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING THRU THE DAY. A FEW MRNG SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES ALSO WHERE BRIEF UPSLOPING IS PROGGED.
ONLY VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING, AND ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10KTS AND GUSTS TO 25KTS CONTINUE AT MANY TAF SITES FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
/ISSUED 901 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING. /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY THANKSGIVING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH THE BETTER CAA LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND TRENDED FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTS IN THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND THE RIDGE.
we've loaded in the MOS consensus forecast for tonight, which ruins a few degrees cooler than the models. Anything from a dry slot with mainly dry conditions here, to widespread drizzle or rain/convection ahead of the cold frontal boundary is possible as well as accumulating snow on a properly positioned deformation zone. In the meantime, the relatively warming highs will continue onto about early to mid week as Pacific high pressure continues to overspread the central plains.
305 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 COLORADO IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALOFT AS A JET DIGS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. BUT EXPECTING THESE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE RIGHT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MORE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL ADVECT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ALSO DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. THE REMAINING SNOWFIELD MAY KEEP SOME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER AT LEAST ON THE PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO TODAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 45 27 51 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 42 23 47 / 30 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 36 43 23 47 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 40 20 42 / 40 10 0 0.
409 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFF THE COAST WITH SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
With all locations within the CWA expected to experience freezing temps tonight.
-HOWERTON UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO ABOUND THIS PERIOD DESPITE RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT. THE POWERFUL UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION IS TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEAST.
932 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN/TSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL GET SHUNTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT PASSES WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FLOWING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
524 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE GOMEX WILL CROSS KMCO SUN AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DECREASING FROM NW-SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 428 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST.
628 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN GREATER EARNEST ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
444 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME WARMING AT 700 MB WHICH COULD HELP MODIFY LOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NARY A CLOUD WAS FOUND IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S TROUGH NOW EXITING THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ARE THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE AND THESE WILL HINGE ON THE PROGRESSION OF DRY SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN 10 TO 12 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPS IS STILL HIGH IN THIS DRY AIR MASS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS LEADING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF OREGON FILLS AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RE- DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN/TSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL GET SHUNTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT PASSES WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FLOWING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 344 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR NEW IBERIA/MORGAN CITY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S.
LESSER AMOUNTS FELL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 TO GALESBURG CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR 30 DEGREES IN FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. CID AND BRL MAY END UP JUST WARMER THAN THE CURRENT RECORD LOWS OF -1 AND 6.
701 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
958 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO ALABAMA.
RADAR IMAGERY AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALL SHARPLY INDICATE THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 00Z TONIGHT.
The lows tonight should be at least 10 degrees below normal for late November.
BREEZY WLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH SFC TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NWRN CONUS WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN.
953 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE FINAL VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PVA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SHUT OFF AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
410 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME WARMING AT 700 MB WHICH COULD HELP MODIFY LOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WE EXPECT TOMORROW EVENING EXTENDS FROM NEAR ATLANTA. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS KINKED INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
Sundays high temperatures will struggle into the 30s, with areas in the north and nearer to any remaining snow will have a hard time reaching the freezing mark, although southerly winds will assist to counter with some weak waa.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS BY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE OVER NE FL/SE GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 60S. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SE WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
1048 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
Temps should recover well on Sunday thanks to decent sunshine and SW winds, with the higher MAV MOS numbers looking preferred early on with max temps in the low-mid 40s. The lows tonight should be at least 10 degrees below normal for late November.
/ISSUED / COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN NW MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN KY ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. COLD AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LOBE OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUNDAY.
623 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAINLY NUISANCE ITEMS DURING THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
As high pressure continues to build over Texas, winds will become light and variable tonight. An area of high of high pressure that brought cooler conditions to the region this weekend will be shifting off to the east, with a southeast to south wind developing, allowing moisture and temperatures to increase through the week.
845 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WAS IN WESTERN WEST VIGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FALLING APART SLOWLY BUT SURELY. FLOW IS TOO WESTERLY TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FAR WEST OF THE LOW TRACK BUT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO ANY RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY BY THEN.
530 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 THE CWA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 18- 21Z. TO THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An upper level LOW is currently over central MO, slowly moving to the E-NE, but you'd never know it by the way the day has turned out across our region, with cloudless skies for most locations, light winds, and temperatures near seasonable levels in the upper 50s to around 60. The upper LOW will slip unnoticed to our east this evening, leaving weak NW flow aloft in its wake. The lower MOS temps are preferred, and in some cases, went a bit below that, although with a slightly warmer day than persistence to work from and a slightly weaker RIDGE anticipated tonight, mins tonight should be slightly higher than persistence, or 30-35 for the vast majority of our region.
Tuesday will be sunny with warmer temperatures across the entire area and higher surface winds out along the Missouri/Kansas line.
948 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
613 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
657 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WILL MOVE NORTH.