Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
447 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge moving over the western part of the forecast area. At the surface, southeasterly winds have developed as between high pressure to the east of the forecast area and a deepening trough of low pressure to the east of the Rockies.
An upper low pushing across the southern Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces will suppress the upper high over the southern Rockies. The main impact from the drier air will be lower afternoon relative humidity that should reach critical to near critical thresholds over much of the lower elevations.
244 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A strong trough across the eastern United States has allowed a weak cold front to make its way all the way down to north Florida. This has cause the subtropical ridge to be pushed well south of Florida and has shifted our winds to the west and southwest.
347 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure remain across the region Thursday and into the upcoming weekend with continued cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Although the upper trough currently across the region lifts northeast the upper pattern across the CONUS will continue to show a strong ridge over the western states and a general flattening of the flow over the east.
A ridge is building over the region for Thursday, which will dominate the weather for the rest of the forecast. Occasional southerly surges of monsoon moisture through the ridge may cause some thunderstorms and showers in Lemhi County, Idaho and southwest Montana.
Warming temperatures expected through the weekend as an upper level ridge moves over the Lakes Region. Upper level trough axis will shift east into PA this evening. A weak upper level trough axis will move into the area midday and into the afternoon Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Thursday and a bit more mild Thursday night as weak WAA starts. High temps in the afternoon will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
/issued 425 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Cold front has passed and what a difference. Dew pt temps have fallen into the lower 60s north to around 70 south.
122 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will move in from the west over the next several days.
222 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 The short-term forecast continues to look fairly tranquil as an upper-level trough remains parked over the Eastern half of the U.
251 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 An amplified upper level ridge remains in place across the Rocky Mountain States with an upper level trough across the Ohio Valley. an area of high pressure was drifting into the Mid-Mississippi Valley at mid afternoon. Highs on Thursday will be a degree or two warmer than Wednesday. A negatively tilted upper level trough is currently moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest and will flatten out the western ridge as it moves across southern Canada. the Gulf will once again open up and begin to allow a warmer and more humid air mass to begin moving northward.
223 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Current surface weather analysis early this afternoon depicts a warm front draped across eastern Montana. On Thursday the chance of thunderstorms shifts into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota along the cold front, with a marginal risk of severe storms advertised by SPC over the far southern James River Valley, and a better risk off to the east of the forecast area.
309 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 /Updated at 0240 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Surface ridging now dominates the weather across the Southeast following yesterday's frontal passage. With clear skies and light/calm winds tonight, temperatures will fall into the low 60s for most, with a few upper 50s possible in the climatologically cooler locations in the north.
The lowest observed temp at Tulsa was 62, with the record low of 60.
Southwest winds will increase somewhat on Thursday as the high shifts east.
1149 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Relatively quiet and seasonable mid-summer weather will continue today and tonight as broad surface ridging shifts eastward into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Will likely see some increase in mid/high clouds as well as diurnal cumulus, but with increasing mid-level temps/weak instability and the stronger moisture transport directed west of the area ahead of a stronger upper trough/cold front, expect higher precip chances to remain west of the area.
215 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough across the eastern half of the U. and a ridge across the Rockies and plains states. The strongest height falls with the series of mid level troughs will remain through Canada. Thursday, sw low level flow WAA will increase between high pressure building through the southern Great Lakes and a low pressure over Manitoba. Temps will climb into the mid 80s but will remain cooler near Lake Michigan where onshore flow prevails.
Models show the upper ridge center to drop southward a bit late tonight and Thursday as a decent upper trough/closed low moves eastward across southern Canada. There is a weak cold front with upslope behind it progged into the plains Thursday morning. 5 C cooler than this afternoon's highs.
304 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Well amplified upper ridge was situated from south-central Canada to the southwestern CONUS. A large high pressure done then will encompass the majority of the CONUS.
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dry air is continuing to influence the area due to the recent passage of a cold front last night. The cold front has stalled out just off the Gulf Coast and is expected to linger.
246 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Upper ridge axis extends from the Four Corners to the Northern High Plains.
221 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Unseasonably cool conditions prevailing over the region this afternoon as high pressure remains entrenched right over the lower Missouri Valley. This will result in another cool overnight period with lows early Thursday morning expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s region wide.
1144 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure continues to provide relatively cool and dry weather through Thursday. Other than that, just expecting less vertical development in the cumulus field outside of this area, and temperatures once again in a comfortable range in this cooler and drier airmass. Expecting area wide lowland 50s again, and even a few 40s in the higher mountain valleys. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Tranquil weather is anticipated across North and Central Texas through the end of the work week as mid-level high pressure remains anchored across the Four Corners region.
As it does so, this will allow for another pleasant night with mostly clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 60s.
346 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Mid/upper level ridge axis is centered over our CWA with strong subsidence/stable air mass keeping conditions locally dry. Upstream Trough is beginning to dig east and associated cold front will move through our region late tonight through Thursday evening. As ridge shifts eastward ahead of this incoming trough, WAA/moisture advection and axis of better mid level lapse rates begins to shift into our CWA by 12Z Thursday. Thursday severe potential: Instability (at least elevated) will be increasing in the 10-15Z time period ahead of cold front and this could support a few stronger updrafts in the morning period. Regarding temperatures: WAA ahead of front (which isn't bringing a lot of CAA) will allow for even warmer temps Thursday (highs near 90 in RRV and west).
High pressure will build across the region through the end of the week leading to sunnier days and seasonably warm temperatures.
208 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 An upper ridge is centered over the southwest part of the country with an upper trough over the eastern conus. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, except maybe a degree or two warmer.
High pressure remains in control on Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer into the lower 80s. Latest surface analysis showing high pressure centered over the mid MS valley and extending eastward over the midwest and great lakes region. gradual airmass modification will have highs nudging up into the low 80s on Thursday and slight uptick in dewpoints will have lows Thursday night near 60F. High pressure center directly overhead Thursday afternoon should allow for differential heating along lake Michigan shoreline to develop lake breeze in far NW CWA.
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 It will remain a little cooler than normal today with rather comfortable humidity. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast.
356 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 It will remain a little cooler than normal today with rather comfortable humidity. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast.
The center of the upper high will remain west of the area through Thursday, with dry and pleasant weather prevailing. Dry low levels coupled with light winds and clear skies will result in another cool night across the area, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s, although a few readings in the upper 50s will be possible once again. Temperatures will still be slightly below normal, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) The upper level high is forecast to be centered over Arizona/New Mexico through the end of this week, and over the Desert Southwest during the weekend.
1130 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure remained centered over western Colorado early this morning. Deep subtropical moisture was moving northward over western Utah between the high and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The trough is expected to push across the northern Rockies today causing the high to shift southward to northwest New Mexico late in the day. Flow around the high will bring the deep subtropical moisture stream across the forecast area with precipitable water (PW) values rising to near or a little above 1 inch this afternoon. Increased moisture will lead to a commensurate increase in cloud cover which will translate into cooler temperatures today with additional cooling on Thursday.
Tonight through Thursday High pressure centered near the Four Corners Region is continuing to bring mostly clear skies throughout the day into the evening hours. After high temperatures today in the upper 80s to lower 90s, good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop back into the lower 60s, another pleasant overnight for late July. Going into the day tomorrow, a perturbation on the edge of the upper level ridge will work its way east across the CO/NM border into the afternoon hours that will help to generate some thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow with persistent southerly winds will be in the low to mid 90s for all locations. Thursday night through Wednesday Broad upper high over the southwestern states and central and southern Rockies will allow for the upper flow to transition from northerly to northwesterly during the latter part of the week.
Concur with the deterministic ECMWF/GFS/NAM that the upper anticyclone will remain quasi-staionary and centered near the Four Corners region during the period and maintain relatively dry and weakly subsident conditions over the CWA. The GFS/NAM predict the upper trough/low and corresponding surface reflection over the NCNTRL/NWRN Gulf of Mexico to move slowly westward during the period.
350 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will move in from the west over the next several days.
1041 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Hot temperatures this week with widespread triple digit temperatures at the lower elevations.
A cold front has moved through the CWA as of this morning, and is bringing drier and "less hot" air into the region.
1146 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cool July morning so far as high pressure over Missouri and a northerly flow on the eastern side of it was bringing in a much drier airmass from the past week. Lows this morning were 10 degrees below normal in the 50s to lower 60s, and tied a record at Knoxville to 40s at the higher elevations. Temperatures at late morning were in the 70s about 10 degrees below expected highs in the lower to mid 80s.
307 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure continues to provide relatively cool and dry weather through Thursday. High pressure continues to build strong providing clear skies, calm flow and fresh temperatures. These ingredients are enough to produce dense fog mainly along the warmer waters along river valleys during the predawn hours Thursday morning. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
A rather broad dome of high pressure will keep any significant rainfall from eastern Kentucky. With still a good air mass edging into the region, some low temperatures tonight will still be in the 50s with a few deeper valley spots in the lower 50s. If LOZ develops thick fog, this could insulate the area keep temps slightly warmer. This will allow highs to reach into the lower 80s, especially with direr air still in place.
Satellite imagery/sfc obs indicate a little bit of fair weather cu developing over the region, otherwise dry conditions prevail with an elevated mostly nerly flow in place behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. /issued 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Clouds are pushing off to the south this am behind a cold front that move through yesterday. /issued 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with areas of thunderstorms lined up along it from east of Brownsville TX to Tallahassee FL. Most weather models do indicate several weak low pressure areas along this front.
138 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will continue expanding eastward across the airspace through the period, bringing a period of tranquil aviation conditions.
Meanwhile, as the northern stream becomes a bit more active, the mid/upper trof over the eastern CONUS will begin to lose its identity, allowing the western CONUS ridge to gradually expand eastward, resulting in rising heights over the PAH forecast area. Temps are expected to inch up about two degrees each day of the short term, except that Fri night will be moderately warmer (mid 60s vs.
High pressure will keep much of the forecast dry throughout the short and extended periods.
A cool Canadian high pressure system remains parked over the Kansas City area today. This Canadian high pressure has allowed temperatures to remain rather cool for this time of year. The cooler weather is not expected to last much longer. The Canadian high pressure is progged to slowly moving off to the east over. Metzger The extended range starts out quiet as the high pressure system remains in control of the region.
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Broad ridge centered over the Intermountain West and Rockies continues to break down as a cut off low tracks east across southwestern Canada tonight.
335 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Except for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, high pressure will control our weather through the weekend.
333 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure continues to provide relatively cool and dry weather through Thursday. High pressure continues to build strong providing clear skies, calm flow and fresh temperatures. These ingredients are enough to produce dense fog mainly along the warmer waters along river valleys during the predawn hours Thursday morning.
Convection will continue to develop and spread east over the next several hours, in line with the trof passage to our north and peak heating. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front along a Great Falls to Butte line. Storm chances are greatest this evening but a few showers may linger in our southeast beyond 06z as upper level ascent lingers south of the main trof.
As the upper ridge axis continues to flatten and translate east, this will place the forecast area almost directly under the longer wave ridge extending up into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the Pacific trough will advance east with associated height falls, forcing and surface boundaries keeping any significant weather well north of the area Thursday and Thursday evening. With a southerly component to the flow due to increased lee troughing in response to the more quasi-zonal upper flow pattern aloft, expect dewpoints to increase into the 60 degree range.
Combined with a upper level high over NM, this has brought quiet weather to West Texas, if just a bit on the cool side. The surface ridging will gradually be replaced by lee-side troughing the next several days, with winds returning to a southerly fetch and bringing a subtle warming trend. Monsoonal moisture rotating around and through the upper high will extend over northeast NM Thursday afternoon and some of the resulting late day shower and t-storm activity could edge toward the far southwest TX Panhandle in the evening hours - but the low-level airmass across the plains will still not have recovered from the front and makes the likelihood that the activity will actually make it into our forecast area quite low.
High pressure was still centered to the NW in MO/IL with low pressure along the east coast. An upper and mid-level trough axis will stretch across the Appalachians to end the work week with a ridge across the Western CONUS and out over the Western Atlantic. The trough will weaken and there will be some slight height rises over the weekend. Some of the models want to indicate a few afternoon showers/storms across the higher elevations but the profiles appear to be too dry for any precipitation. Low level high pressure will become established across the Carolinas with a cold front well to the north of the area.
100 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 The 1730Z water vapor satellite imagery shows the axis of the upper level ridge along the Front Range of the Rockies and over the Northern Plains. Weak leeside troughing is expected this afternoon and into the overnight hours that could provide minimal lift for thunderstorm development. Tonight and tomorrow, a closed low over southern Canada shifts the ridge eastward with the center of high pressure remaining over the southwestern U. While not likely to have much impact on the Tri- State region, the closed low could help promote better precipitation chances tomorrow evening. Leeside troughing persists through tomorrow. Lows tonight will reach the lower to mid- 60s.
1118 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A potent & fast-moving short wave disturbance is expected to track across the Central Rockies today, flattening the upper-level ridge and giving way to quasi-zonal flow aloft across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle.
332 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front will slide well offshore tonight. A weak cold front will approach from the north on Thursday then wash out north of the border Thursday night.
Overall, high pressure will continue to dominate through at least Thursday. Northeasterly flow helps to bring some cooler air into the region, especially for the east.
1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge moving over the western part of the forecast area. At the surface, southeasterly winds have developed as between high pressure to the east of the forecast area and a deepening trough of low pressure to the east of the Rockies.
224 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Current surface map places trof across northeast Wyoming, with cold front moving into central Montana. Environment becomes more favorable as upper ridge shifts eastward over the next few hours and weak impulse crosses the area later this evening. Cold front will reach northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota 04z-06z and slowly move through the remainder of the area overnight. A period of breezy northwest winds sill arrive behind the cold front.
304 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure continues to provide relatively cool and dry weather through Thursday. Other than that, just expecting less vertical development in the cumulus field outside of this area, and temperatures once again in a comfortable range in this cooler and drier airmass. Expecting area wide lowland 50s again, and even a few 40s in the higher mountain valleys. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
217 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will linger over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight, keeping a light northerly flow across the region. Dewpoints currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s support lows falling into the lower 60s by daybreak on Thursday.
A bit warmer on Thursday with moistly sunny skies. Warming trend will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend, as the high moves to the east and allows southerly winds to bring warmer air into the area, a few degrees increasing each day.
Light east to southeast winds today and tonight will turn more southerly Thursday morning, with a modest increase in speeds, as the high pressure ridge shifts east. Convection that develops over the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening will at least spread mid and high clouds across parts of Oklahoma. This will also coincide with slightly warmer daytime highs.
202 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Except for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, high pressure will control our weather through the weekend.
GOES-East water vapor imagery confirms a very dry airmass in place across much of Texas this afternoon, in the wake of yesertday's cold front. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be several degrees cooler given the clearing of this morning's mid level clouds, light surface winds forecast tonight, and dew points in the 50s.
358 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Seasonably cooler than average temperatures will continue through the end of this week. While an upper high ridge across the southwestern U.
1150 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 It will remain a little cooler than normal today with rather comfortable humidity. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast.
The trend for unseasonably cool low temperatures due to the recent cold front continues tonight. Clear skies will prevail as we make our way through the night with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Overall, high pressure will continue to dominate through at least Thursday. Northeasterly flow helps to bring some cooler air into the region, especially for the east.
High pressure centered east of the area will continue to provide a favorable monsoon flow into the area through Thursday, resulting in scattered thunderstorms again on Thursday.
This is indicative of the area of high pressure stemming from the four corners region of the US. This area of high pressure will be the main story for the entirety of the forecast period with warm and dry conditions continuing each day with cool to mild nights.
Mid/upper level ridge axis is centered over our CWA with strong subsidence/stable air mass keeping conditions locally dry. Upstream Trough is beginning to dig east and associated cold front will move through our region late tonight through Thursday evening. As ridge shifts eastward ahead of this incoming trough, WAA/moisture advection and axis of better mid level lapse rates begins to shift into our CWA by 12Z Thursday. Thursday severe potential: Instability (at least elevated) will be increasing in the 10-15Z time period ahead of cold front and this could support a few stronger updrafts in the morning period. Regarding temperatures: WAA ahead of front (which isn't bringing a lot of CAA) will allow for even warmer temps Thursday (highs near 90 in RRV and west).
The short-term forecast continues to look fairly tranquil as an upper-level trough remains parked over the Eastern half of the U.
911 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening.
/issued 358 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Seasonably cooler than average temperatures will continue through the end of this week. While an upper high ridge across the southwestern U.
550 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Well amplified upper ridge was situated from south-central Canada to the southwestern CONUS. A large high pressure dome then will encompass the majority of the CONUS.