Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today, the ridge to the south will gradually strengthen leading to mostly dry conditions.
254 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a theta-e ridge axis from the Big Bend area extending ne into wrn OK. Said theta-e ridge will shift w-nw later today and low-level instability axis will set-up n-s near the TX/NM stateline. Models continue to highlight a mid-level pattern with a strong ridge to e and trough in nw CONUS and a moist axis within the sw flow aloft. Thereafter the ridge to the e will build w quickly Fri and PoPs will gradually tick down into Sat with a front possible Sun.
The stalled front will lift into northeastern Indiana tonight as a ridge builds in from the south. Changes are in store late week as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
The greater potential for the low clouds looks to be across parts of Eastern Oklahoma.
Surface ridging will build southward from eastern Canada on Sunday and nose into the Commonwealth. After some early morning clouds over the higher terrain, this will lead to a partly to mostly sunny and cooler day. Wedge sfc pattern expected on Monday as high pressure channels down the east-side of the Appalachians. This set-up should offer a potential target of opportunity to trend max temps down by a few to perhaps several degrees with a large spread noted between warmer NBM and much cooler MAV/MET MOS.
Otherwise, the rest of the short term period is looking dry and unseasonably hot as an anomalously strong upper level high builds over the southeastern U.
A strong upper level high pressure system will keep record setting heat going through midweek, especially high temperatures.
Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure building directly overhead today, subsidence and abundant sunshine will once again allow for temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across our forecast area - perhaps a degree warmer than yesterday.
1251 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Dry with decreasing clouds today under building high pressure. Using the meager cold air advection as a guide, will go with a forecast of at least a portion of the lower cloud deck reaching just south of PIT. The other question for the night is how far south the lower surface dewpoints push, which will impact overnight fog. Temperatures will not fall off too much, particularly if the low cloud deck pushes further south then anticipated. Southeast CONUS ridge is projected to reamplify today, in response to deep low pressure digging north of the Great Basin.
Overnight lows will be above average across the region with most areas falling only into the low 70s. In the upper levels a ridge centered over the Southeast will drift slowly westward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface weak high pressure will be over the Southeast with easterly flow near the surface. Highs will remain well above average in the lower to mid 90s.
Thus VFR, and even sometimes SKC conditions, thru 30/06Z, due to ridging influences sfc/aloft.
329 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 An area of low pressure currently over Wyoming will slowly progress into southwest South Dakota later this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent with our far northeast only reaching the upper 50s, to the low 60s today. The period opens up with a large positively tilted upper level low pressure trough extending from the southwest U.
345 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Moisture advection and weak forcing ahead of the western CONUS trough will continue to push an area of light rain showers across central MN/WI. West central MN looks a tad cooler, with low/mid 70s more likely. Monday afternoon will likely prove to be the higher potential for severe weather in our area if storms can become surface-based as the cold front passes across the area during peak heating.
Hot and dry conditions will persist across the region as a stout ridge of high pressure will continue to influence the region. The center of high pressure will retrograde to the west through the day with the center moving over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Latest RAP model has mid level ridging centered over the southern MS/AL line dominating the Gulf region over night while high pressure south of the Canadian Maritimes stretches across the southeast U. High pressure along the eastern seaboard into the Gulf of Mexico will slowly strengthen during the next few days with east and northeast winds. This high pressure will begin to relax later in the week and allow winds and seas to to diminish.
354 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Dry with decreasing clouds today under building high pressure. Southeast CONUS ridge is projected to reamplify today, in response to deep low pressure digging north of the Great Basin.
Current surface map shows a ridge of high pressure across ND/northern MN extending across our northeastern counties. The period starts off with a fairly amplified mid level pattern across the CONUS, with a positive tilt trof over the western CONUS, and a strong ridge over the southeast CONUS. The western trof will shear energy out to the northeast and across the region through this upcoming week. That said, the highest chances for pcpn will be Monday night, and probably again late in the week as next mid level trof lifts northeast into the region. As for temperatures, most of the period should feature below normal readings, except for Monday, where the northeast CWA will be above normal east of the advancing cold front. The low cigs and chances for precipitation will continue through the evening hours Sunday.
1034 PM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snow and a rain-snow mix into the valleys this weekend. The Highway 2 corridor will see slushy accumulations tonight into Sunday morning.
For Sunday and Monday, H500 and surface ridging will build west over the area providing hotter temperatures and continued dry conditions.
359 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 WV imagery this morning revealing the dominate feature being a large upper low centered over the Pacific NW. Expect convection to continue to spread northward as a surface boundary over southern KS begins to lift as a warm front later this morning. Persistent Gulf moisture advection into the central Plains will translate to an extremely moist environment to be in place ahead of a cold front dropping out of the northern Plains. The leading edge of the cold front is expected to cross into the northern CWA Monday afternoon then turn relatively slow in progression southward as it becomes nearly parallel to the mean flow aloft.
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday cleared out most of the clouds with latest satellite imagery only showing a few lingering low clouds in Monterey and Santa Clara counties. The gusty winds from yesterday and last night have lessened, except along the immediate coastline and in the higher terrain were Northwest winds are still gusting in the 10 to 20 mph range. Besides cool temperatures, Monday is expected to be a dry day as the trough begins to move off to the east. Temperatures are forecast to warm closer to normal by the middle of the week high pressure tries to briefly build over the state. as weak upper level ridging develops over California.
The NAM NEST and HRRR indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop over West Central Texas in the western region of the upper ridge to our east.
/issued 254 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a theta-e ridge axis from the Big Bend area extending ne into wrn OK. Said theta-e ridge will shift w-nw later today and low-level instability axis will set-up n-s near the TX/NM stateline. Models continue to highlight a mid-level pattern with a strong ridge to e and trough in nw CONUS and a moist axis within the sw flow aloft. Thereafter the ridge to the e will build w quickly Fri and PoPs will gradually tick down into Sat with a front possible Sun.
As the low-level jet decreases toward sunrise, shower activity should also decrease. On Monday, we will see a continuation of above normal temperatures across all of south central Texas as the subtropical ridge axis centered over the lower Mississippi River valley remains the dominant weather feature.
As this low moves to the northeast, the precipitation shield will move northward.
Upper level ridging centered over northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas will continue to keep convection limited today. /issued 420 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered near the Carolina coastline ridging wswwd, maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Meanwhile water vapor imagery shows mid/upper- level ridging centered over the cntl Gulf Coast region. Despite the mid/upper-level ridging building wwd, latest high res runs continue to show widely scattered convection developing through the course of the day primarily over the sern zones. A few late night streamer showers will again be expected to move into the coastal zones, particularly across sern TX as all convection gets pushed wwd by the retrograding ridge aloft.
311 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Synoptic Setup: Forecast starts with a high pressure ridge beginning over New Mexico then snaking its way up through eastern Colorado and into Nebraska. In response a large trough has formed stretching its way from northern California through the Pacific Northwest and into Alberta. To get snow/rain line properly lined up in these periods have lowered the snow/rain temperatures thresholds down a degree while also eliminating any chance for freezing rain in the event. Today through tonight: Pacific moisture is streaming in on the flow aloft over progressively cooler air pouring in from the west to northwest at the surface.
The highest probabilities are across south central/central Oklahoma. Two slugs of mid level moisture and WAA could support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today, with the highest chances likely along and east of I-35. Still expect the subtropical ridge over the Miss. River valley and approaching long wave trough over much of the western CONUS. This axis will slowly shift east and south Wed-Thu with a cold front also diving into the Southern Plains.
Two slugs of mid level moisture and WAA could support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today, with the highest chances likely along and east of I-35. Still expect the subtropical ridge over the Miss. River valley and approaching long wave trough over much of the western CONUS. This axis will slowly shift east and south Wed-Thu with a cold front also diving into the Southern Plains.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain hot conditions across the forecast area again today. Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure building directly overhead today, subsidence and abundant sunshine will once again allow for temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across our forecast area - perhaps a degree warmer than yesterday.
WV imagery this morning revealing the dominate feature being a large upper low centered over the Pacific NW. Expect convection to continue to spread northward as a surface boundary over southern KS begins to lift as a warm front later this morning. Persistent Gulf moisture advection into the central Plains will translate to an extremely moist environment to be in place ahead of a cold front dropping out of the northern Plains. The leading edge of the cold front is expected to cross into the northern CWA Monday afternoon then turn relatively slow in progression southward as it becomes nearly parallel to the mean flow aloft.
An area of low pressure currently over Wyoming will slowly progress into southwest South Dakota later this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent with our far northeast only reaching the upper 50s, to the low 60s today. The period opens up with a large positively tilted upper level low pressure trough extending from the southwest U.
Expect low clouds and patchy fog early this morning to give way to a partly to mostly sunny and cooler/less humid afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Hires models support a low chance for a spotty shower or t-storm popping up over the higher terrain of the Laurels later this afternoon/evening. Wedge sfc pattern expected on Monday as high pressure channels down the east-side of the Appalachians. The quasi-stnry boundary will pivot and lift north as a warm front through Monday night. We continued to trend max temps lower toward blend of cooler MOS guidance and hires NAM.
243 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Much cooler weather along with a chance of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow today into Monday. 25 inches (with the highest amounts in the mountain and foothills), although locally heavy amounts will be seen with any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. Precipitation will continue into Monday afternoon as the main upper low lifts northeast.
420 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered near the Carolina coastline ridging wswwd, maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Meanwhile water vapor imagery shows mid/upper- level ridging centered over the cntl Gulf Coast region. Despite the mid/upper-level ridging building wwd, latest high res runs continue to show widely scattered convection developing through the course of the day primarily over the sern zones. A few late night streamer showers will again be expected to move into the coastal zones, particularly across sern TX as all convection gets pushed wwd by the retrograding ridge aloft.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a large and deep western CONUS trough/low, while an upper ridge/high amplifies over the southeast states.
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Dry with decreasing clouds today under building high pressure. Southeast CONUS ridge is projected to reamplify today, in response to deep low pressure digging north of the Great Basin.
1018 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Mostly dry weather can be expected this afternoon under building high pressure. Low-level convergence along the ridges will allow a few showers and thunderstorms to fire in that region this afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 71 95 70 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 93 70 / 20 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 94 69 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 65 88 66 / 20 0 20 0.
341 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 A broad, cool trough will dominate the region early this week.
908 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Deep layered ridging over the southeastern U. A tightening pressure gradient associated with high pressure building in north of the area will support increasing northeast to east winds during the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid 70s this morning will climb into the lower 90s during the afternoon. High pressure building in north of the marine waters will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the region with increasing northeast to easterly winds and building seas expected over the Gulf waters tonight into Monday with periods of Cautionary or Small Craft conditions possible during the evening and overnight time periods.
While the low levels are seeing chilly northeast to east flow north of the surface warm front this morning, winds aloft are continuing to pump tropical moisture northward, resulting in widespread rain, and where mesoscale features combined with synoptic lift, some thunderstorms with very heavy rain. Today, the models are consistent in moving the warm front north through the day, but I am hesitant of that, as the slightly north of east flow is carrying Lake Michigan air with it, thus combined with stratus, we may be cool and cloudy over the north 2/3 today. I will slightly undercut guidance for now, but be ready for a substantial update if the 06z runs arrive cooler. Tonight, the warm front aloft will be north, thus the rains should be north of our area tonight.
418 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Convergent banding starting to set up on the western periphery the high located on the east coast. The area with the highest chances of getting rain will be along and west of the Miss River. 35 High pressure over the east coast will keep winds mainly out of a SE direction through much of this week.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Moisture advection and weak forcing ahead of the western CONUS trough will continue to push an area of light rain showers across central MN/WI. West central MN looks a tad cooler, with low/mid 70s more likely. Monday afternoon will likely prove to be the higher potential for severe weather in our area if storms can become surface-based as the cold front passes across the area during peak heating.
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday cleared out most of the clouds with latest satellite imagery only showing a few lingering low clouds in Monterey and Santa Clara counties. The gusty winds from yesterday and last night have lessened, except along the immediate coastline and in the higher terrain were Northwest winds are still gusting in the 10 to 20 mph range. Besides cool temperatures, Monday is expected to be a dry day as the trough begins to move off to the east. Temperatures are forecast to warm closer to normal by the middle of the week high pressure tries to briefly build over the state. as weak upper level ridging develops over California. SFO Bridge Approach. Another high pressure center will replace it by late week as it steadily advances closer to the California coast and Pacific Northwest.
233 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Upper ridging will persist across the Lower Mississipi Valley early in the period keeping summer still in the horizon. By mid week, a significant upper level trough across the western CONUS will push east and start suppress our downstream suptropical ridge. This flattenting ridge will allow a fairly strong cold front to move throught the area.
250 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Canadian high pressure will move into our region bringing a frosty night. Expect cool and sunny conditions on Monday as high pressure shifts to the east.
A major storm system continued to take shape across the Pacific Northwest region with influence spreading east toward the High Plains as a lower tropospheric leeside trough deepened across eastern Wyoming and adjacent northeastern Colorado.
Overall, inherited forecast is on track with low end pops for the above convective prospects, and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s. /issued 420 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered near the Carolina coastline ridging wswwd, maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Meanwhile water vapor imagery shows mid/upper- level ridging centered over the cntl Gulf Coast region. Despite the mid/upper-level ridging building wwd, latest high res runs continue to show widely scattered convection developing through the course of the day primarily over the sern zones. A few late night streamer showers will again be expected to move into the coastal zones, particularly across sern TX as all convection gets pushed wwd by the retrograding ridge aloft.
118 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Dry high pressure will ridge into the forecast area through tonight. There will be a small chance of showers or thunderstorms associated with a diffuse cold front Monday. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week. Surface and upper ridging will dominate. Some of the high-resolution models depicted a few late day thunderstorms in the extreme north part. The guidance has been consistent with lows in the lower 70s. Winds should be light with the ridge axis in the region. A backdoor cold front pushes into the Midlands and CSRA on Monday.
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail thus confidence in precip in the valley remains low, therefore all tafs are dry through the period amidst low VFR cu today.
1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Moisture advection and weak forcing ahead of the western CONUS trough will continue to push an area of light rain showers across central MN/WI. West central MN looks a tad cooler, with low/mid 70s more likely. Monday afternoon will likely prove to be the higher potential for severe weather in our area if storms can become surface-based as the cold front passes across the area during peak heating.
326 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Upper level high pressure will remain in place over the southeastern US through mid week.
High pressure remains situated just north of the area with a deep layer northeast flow in place.
Hot and dry weather to continue through the period as the anomalously strong, deep layer ridge remains anchored over the region. Lows will range from the lower to middle 70s close to the coast and generally low 70s inland with a few locations falling into the upper 60s. High temperatures tomorrow will again challenge record highs, with middle to upper 90s along and north of Interstate 10, to the lower 90s near the coast.
1105 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 An unseasonable strong cold front will keep northerly winds, much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snow and a rain- snow mix into the valleys through the day.
Overall environment however supports neutral to rising hts as the ridge begins to build back to the northwest so any convection should be isolated and diminish quickly with sunset. The large scale pattern will feature a deep trough across the West with a highly anomalous mid latitude ridge in place across the lower MS Valley this week.
High pressure. With the high meandering around winds will generally be from a southerly direction but may veer 30 degrees either direction.
High pressure will be centered over the area for the next couple of days.
Scattered thunderstorms are currently developing along the edge of the low-level jet. Overall, the daytime of Monday will be similar to today, but likely a couple degrees warmer. Winds may be just a touch lighter than today, but gusts to 40 MPH still appear possible By Monday evening, the cold front should be edging into northwest portions of the forecast area.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure ridge continues to slowly expand westward, becmg nearly centered over the the Arklamiss.
415 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Expansive deep layer ridging will prevail from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the eastern CONUS, as downstream troughing aloft persists from the southern Bahamas into the Caribbean Sea. The best moisture should remain towards the lower portion of the troposphere, thus limiting rain coverage and intensity. The upper ridge should elongate and push away to our north as troughing aloft advances into our area from the east.
Strong upper level ridging over the southeastern U. Daytime high and nighttime low temperatures will remain above normal with lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90 to the lower 90s. Strong high pressure north of the marine waters will maintain a tight pressure gradient and breezy northeast to easterly wind flow and elevated seas over the Gulf waters through the upcoming week. Lighter winds and lower seas will eventually return late in the week as the gradient slowly relaxes as the high to the north weakens.
1022 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Much cooler weather along with a chance of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow today into Monday. Additional localized amounts up to 8-12" will be possible over the highest mountain peaks including Lassen National Park. 25 inches (with the highest amounts in the mountain and foothills), although locally heavy amounts will be seen with any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. Precipitation will continue into Monday afternoon as the main upper low lifts northeast.
The first couple days of October will continue persistence forecast, as sfc ridging continues strong onshore flow across the region in a tight pressure gradient.
At this point we're expecting the low to track over our northeastern counties by 15Z Monday and into northern MN by 21Z. The cold front lingering across NE/southeastern SD/IA, with another CO low edging up along the low, and the continuation of energy from the large 500mb trough over the western U. This will keep temperatures from falling much below the low to mid 40s. A mid-level trof over the western CONUS will lift out across the Northern Plains through the middle of this week. Occasional shower chances are expected during that time period, especially as energy aloft helps form a sfc wave along a cold front situated across Nebraska/Iowa.