Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another near repeat day as the pattern remains in a block as high pressure remains over our area. Did nudge highs up slightly from the overnight shift as temps today were slightly warmer as well. The H85 temps are slightly warmer tomorrow as well.
High pressure will build over the west coast the next several days with some slight warming occurring each of the next few days.
CIMSS MIMIC TPW depicts slightly higher moisture over the Upper Keys, in comparison to the impressively low moisture across the Lower and Middle Keys. Due to the lower confidence in winds dropping this low, have maintained current forecasted low temperatures. All in all, it will be a quiet, cooler (for October in the Florida Keys) night. The Lower Keys will likely remain just below Coastal Flood Statement criteria.
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday) Another quiet day ahead with clear skies, warmer than average temperatures, and light easterly/southeasterly winds across the region.
541 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Upper air pattern this afternoon features a closed trough centered over Montana, with the remnants of Ian still meandering over North Carolina and Virginia. Between these two features, our area will remain under high pressure. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across the area, which will be pleasant. For Monday, afternoon temperatures will range from around the lower to mid 80s across the region.
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Key Messages: - Remaining warm Monday - Turning much cooler by the end of the week An upper level stout ridge continues to reign supreme tonight and tomorrow. Anomalous heights at 850&700mb under this ridge reach >+2. A large scale pattern shift is expected to occur later this week as the current ridging aloft breaks down with northwest flow developing by the end of the week.
Ridging in between with slightly positive height anomalies is the result. A more subsidence-driven dry and slightly cooler continental air mass will arrive by tomorrow. However, increased PBL moisture will keep us from mixing out to the lower relative humidity values seen yesterday, and weakening pressure gradient will keep winds below concerning levels tomorrow. A few isolated normally colder locations could even approach freezing. Through mid-week, deamplifying ridging will become better positioned for warmer temperatures (i.
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday) Another quiet day ahead with clear skies, warmer than average temperatures, and light easterly/southeasterly winds across the region.
638 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low/trough is centered over Montana with another, smaller, upper low over Northern Mexico. The upper trough will begin to move over the Northern and Central Plains on Monday. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely be a degree or two cooler across much of the area on Monday with highs only in the lower to mid 80s across the Permian Basin. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s across the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos.
These clouds may limit radiational cooling, keeping low temperatures slightly warmer than previously expected.
631 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Tranquil weather will continue with upper-level ridging dominating the pattern across the region.
1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over portions of the Eastern Plains and western sections of the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a trough axis extends from New England back through the Southeast United States and into portions of Mississippi.
135 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Drier conditions develop today through mid-week as the low moves further offshore and high pressure builds into the area with continued cooler than normal temperatures. A cold front will pass by the end of the week, with temperatures returning to below for the weekend. A closed upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will very slowly move off the coast early this week.
Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley through mid-week. VFR should return at MGW, and will continue through the TAF period elsewhere, under dry advection and building high pressure. VFR is expected until restriction potential returns with a Thu night/Fri cdfnt, and subsequent NW flow and upper troughing.
The persistent upper level low that has been over the area and has worn out it's welcome like that annoying uncle is finally moving, now up into Montana. As for temperatures, with the northwest flow, most areas will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but nothing unusual for early October.
124 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 No changes were made to the forecast as high pressure will keep fair weather across the region through the remainder of the week. Cooler air is being funneled in as a result, which dries our airmass out. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 50s for SE AL and SW GA, generally the mid 50s for the inland FL, and the upper 50s to near 60 along the coast. High temperatures are to make it into the low to mid 80s tomorrow under mainly sunny skies and be accompanied with refreshing northeasterly winds.
1156 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Key Messages: - Remaining warm Monday - Turning much cooler by the end of the week An upper level stout ridge continues to reign supreme tonight and tomorrow. Anomalous heights at 850&700mb under this ridge reach >+2. A large scale pattern shift is expected to occur later this week as the current ridging aloft breaks down with northwest flow developing by the end of the week.
103 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022 High pressure strengthening across the West will maintain dry conditions, clear skies, and light winds through the week. Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a strong signal for a high pressure anomaly across the West through the week. This pattern will be rather persistent and continue to keep the Sierra and western Nevada warmer than seasonal averages.
342 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The blocking pattern that has been in place for the past few days will begin to break down today.
1203 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Aviation - Risk for frost tonight A large area of high pressure centered over southern Ontario will funnel a cooler and drier air mass into the CWA for the rest of the afternoon into tonight.
Very little change to the going forecast, as the region remains under an omega blocking pattern and high pressure remains entrenched across the Great Lakes region. Tonight's lows will dip into the lower to middle 40s.
/44/ (This evening through Monday Night) Upper air pattern this afternoon features a closed trough centered over Montana, with the remnants of Ian still meandering over North Carolina and Virginia. Between these two features, our area will remain under high pressure. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across the area, which will be pleasant. For Monday, afternoon temperatures will range from around the lower to mid 80s across the region.
308 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The forecast period starts with a closed upper low centered to the northwest of the Black Hills and southwest flow over the Central Plains. Through the day, the low is expected to drift to the southeast, into the Black Hills. A cold front will move into the Nebraska Panhandle, making its way across the western third of the state through the daytime hours.
1027 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The mid/upper level low that has been over the area for the past couple of days has drifted north somewhat, now centered in southern Montana. Tomorrow the low will continue to become more progressive, shifting farther east. The northwest flow will keep temperatures across eastern areas a few degrees cooler than today; elsewhere a few degrees warmer.
(Tonight) A cold front will move south of the area Today, as high pressure builds from the north northwest. The enhanced gradient between the front and the high will produce a surge of winds down the coastal waters this afternoon, leading to gusty winds at the coast. Weak inverted troughing near the NE FL coast could produce a few afternoon showers there. The high will remain to the north through the night, with gradient winds continuing provide gusty conditions at the coast. Highs Today, will be well below normal, with highs ranging from the lower 70s over coastal SE GA, to the upper 70s over inland NE FL. Lows Tonight will also be below seasonal averages with lows from the lower 50s for inland SE GA, to the mid 60s for NE FL.
123 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Quiet weather continues across the area through the period as high pressure remains dominant.
GOES-16 night microphysics showed a few clouds, mainly in the Lower and Middle Keys; however, doppler radar remained clear and devoid of showers.
1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Wx map shows high pressure continuing to build southward from the Great Lakes/SE Canada across the lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast.
Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley through mid-week. All other ports will remain VFR with N-NE winds under building high pressure. VFR is expected until restriction potential returns with a Thu night/Fri cdfnt, and subsequent NW flow and upper troughing.
A few clouds may encroach on the northeastern section of the area as northeasterly surface flow wedges down a slightly cooler airmass there.
1026 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 High pressure fixed firmly in place over the Great Lakes and a nearly-stationary flow pattern aloft will allow for a continuation of the dry, seasonable weather we've enjoyed for the last several days. The expansive upper-level low across the intermountain West will slowly advance downstream as a longwave trough across northern Canada seeps south into the CONUS. MRB Temperatures will continue a very gradual climb through the middle of the week as winds veer slowly from out of the east to out of the south with an upper-level trough and attendant cold front approaching the region.
Discussion: Morning WV GOES imagery places a mid/upper level low across the east coast, while upshear ridging builds across the plains. High pressure at the surface continues across the Great Lakes placing a northeasterly boundary layer flow across the area. High temperatures will be warmer today, generally in the low to mid 70's. High pressure continues to build into the Ohio Valley tonight, keeping conditions dry and cool.
300 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Discussion/Marine High pressure will continue in control of our wx pattern early this week and result in mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A large diurnal temp swing is expected today (and even more so tomorrow) as high temps will reach the low to mid 60s after the chilly start to the day given the dry airmass in place and ample sun.
To the east, a mid level trough is situated across the Mid Atlantic region while upper ridging is slowly pushing east across our area. While it will still be dry, minimum afternoon RH values won't be so low, with the lowest expected in the Delta. Between this and the lower wind speeds through the day, will continue to not advertise a fire danger risk for today. /28/ Mid and upper level ridging will help continue this dry pattern across the ArkLAMiss.
This wrap around precipitation will exit as the low pressure system departs the region by tomorrow night. Previous Discussion: Upper level Low is currently located over central Montana. Most of today the Low brought in a dry slot in our mid and upper levels over most of the CWA. The Low tracks northeast overnight into a position to pull in some wrap around moisture and bring a few showers over the area tonight and lasting into Monday afternoon with the Low exiting the area by Monday night.
For the central US a large area of high pressure extends from southern Canada south into the US and down into Texas.
1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 During the short term forecast period, omega block ridging is expected to continue, as a cutoff low with remnant moisture from Ian remains stalled over the Mid-Atlantic.
1227 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low/trough is centered over Montana with another, smaller, upper low over Northern Mexico. The upper trough will begin to move over the Northern and Central Plains on Monday. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely be a degree or two cooler across much of the area on Monday with highs only in the lower to mid 80s across the Permian Basin. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s across the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos.
This is thanks to a weak area of high pressure at the surface combined with last night's fropa.
An upper low centered over central Montana early this morning will move slowly eastward to a position near the Montana/Dakotas border at the end of the day. The forecast area will remain between an upper ridge to the east and an upper trough to the west, the latter being the southward extension of the Montana upper low. Forcing from the western trough will remain well to the west of the forecast area, thus a continuation of fair weather is expected through tonight. The eastward progression of the upper low will induce weak surface cyclogenesis across southeastern Colorado today with a very modest tightening of the surface pressure across the South Plains area resulting in a slight uptick in wind speeds relative to yesterday.
235 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Quiet weather continues across the area through the period as high pressure remains dominant.
(Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging across West Central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions.
Resident environment marked by deep layer stability held within a very dry airmass today, as mid level northerly flow lingers atop an extensive area of high pressure. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Monday) A weak upper low that has been sitting over northern Sonora the past several days will begin to phase in to the long wave trough over the Rockies tonight. This trough will become increasingly sharp and move east on Monday but will likely still be too far west to have a significant impact on the region. The large upper level trough over the Rockies will again induce weak surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico on Monday afternoon.
Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible. Models continue to show a blocking pattern, with an upper level ridge situated over the central CONUS, as well as a dry air mass over the areas as depicted by satellite imagery.
Seasonable temperatures will continue through a majority of the week under high pressure. Quiet, dry weather will continue to prevail throughout the day as high pressure builds to our west. High and mid-level clouds are likely to build late this afternoon as the outflow from a low pressure system (that was once Ian) advances over the Laurel Highlands.
Current temperatures are in the low 50s to low 60s with sunrise temperatures expected to be in the low to middle 50s.
258 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 As of early this morning, satellite imagery had the upper low centered over northern Rosebud County. Expect additional periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms to move through the area today as the low slowly spins east.
(Today) Mostly clear skies persist across the TN Valley early this Monday morning, with temps generally in the lower to mid 50s. With high pressure anchored to our north and upper ridging building to our west, northerly flow will continue to limit the moisture return over the region keeping skies mostly clear through the day. Highs will be a a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, as temps warm into the mid to upper 70s.
445 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north while the low pressure associated with the remnants of Ian is off to the east. some pockets of clearing on the northern fringes of the clouds have allowed for radiational cooling and set up a temperature variation from the mid and 50s under the clouds in our southwest to the low 50s in the north and east. Meanwhile, dewpoints are in the low to mid 50s most places amid light northeast winds. They all depict eastern Kentucky in between weak ridging through the mid section of the country while the troughing and remnants of Ian spin to the east.
1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will keep conditions warm and dry in the short term. But we do think tonight will be a little warmer than last night and that Monday night will be a little warmer than tonight.
Persistent high pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes region and into Quebec and portions of New England early this morning. with pronounced ridging extending thru the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. We will see some increase in mid/high clouds later tonight across our NW CWA as the leading edge of increasing moisture drops into our area well in advance of approaching low pressure over the Northern Plains. Forecast period begins with a large area of high pressure centered overhead of the eastern Great lakes through Maine. As the remnants of Ian continue to move eastward, so does the high pressure overhead.
After a couple of cool and breezy days, temperatures warm midweek as weak high pressure builds into the Carolinas.
Ensembles indicate the omega block pattern will hold over the western US this week with ridging over NorCal continuing the warm and dry pattern with generally cloud-free skies.
817 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Pleasant morning across South Florida with dew points in the low to mid 60s. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Ian linger over the mid-Atlantic which high pressure sits to the northwest of the region. A trough extends from the low down the Atlantic waters off the eastern seaboard into the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a continental airmass to the west of the trough will allow temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoons with overnight lows in the 60s inland and the 70s closer to the coast.
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Quiet weather continues across the area through the period as high pressure remains dominant. Light easterly winds and a dry airmass under this high will result in mainly clear skies and mild daytime inland highs around 70 today and into the lower 70s for Tuesday. However, closer to the lake onshore winds will keep conditions a couple of degrees cooler both days.
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Ian linger over the mid-Atlantic which high pressure sits to the northwest of the region. A trough extends from the low down the Atlantic waters off the eastern seaboard into the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a continental airmass to the west of the trough will allow temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoons with overnight lows in the 60s inland and the 70s closer to the coast.
The lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry, with PWATs around 1 inch. Models prog a mid/upper level trough associated with Orlene to stretch across Mexico to Texas today, then it becomes absorbed by a long wave trough moving east across the U. These features will provide weak upper level support for precipitation, but the low levels are progged to be dry.
Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible. Models continue to show a blocking pattern, with an upper level ridge situated over the central CONUS, as well as a dry air mass over the areas as depicted by satellite imagery. Tonight will yield another quiet night, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the typical cold valleys over the eastern CWA to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
This will probably leave these areas a little warmer than they otherwise would have seen, but everybody should drop back into the low to mid 50s by daybreak. We should see a skosh more low level moisture today, which means RHs should be slightly higher today than the last few days, but by Tuesday, an influx of dry air and upper ridging could create another day of Marginal Fire Danger.
High pressure to the NE of AR will keep SFC flow NRLY.
515 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The upper-level ridge that has kept the area high and dry holds out for one more day. This southern trough will result in increasing cloud cover across the entire area. Even though not everyone will benefit from rain, the cooler temperatures are appreciated.
742 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Aviation High pressure will continue in control of our wx pattern early this week and result in mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A large diurnal temp swing is expected today (and even more so tomorrow) as high temps will reach the low to mid 60s after the chilly start to the day given the dry airmass in place and ample sun.
303 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a closed low over southeast Montana that is dragging in low clouds and isolated to scattered rain showers across northeast Montana from the southeast. To the west a heat ridge rises from California through the Pac Northwest and into southern British Columbia. Today: As the low moves across the MT/ND border showers will begin clearing from west to east along with low clouds. Monday night through Tuesday night: The ridge to the west will grow and topple over onto the Alberta Plains then drop south leading to a chinook across the region. Expected mid to high clouds with warmer and dry conditions during this time. Meanwhile, the arctic air up north will fall down behind it forming a cold front.
A full omega block has developed, in the form of two troughs, one over the northern Rockies and the other over the eastern seaboard, surrounding an upper level ridge over the full length of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, keeping the Four State Region under generally northerly flow aloft, oscillating between northwesterly and northeasterly with the shifting position of the upper level trough to the east, preventing any significant northward incursion of Gulf moisture. Additionally, ridging induced subsidence will aid in keeping PoPs negligible throughout, while the aforementioned northerly flow, joined by similarly oriented surface winds, keep morning lows noticeably below average in the 50s while afternoon highs return to near seasonable values in the middle 80s, with several sites aiming for the upper 80s north and west.
611 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging across West Central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions.
Persistent high pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes region and into Quebec and portions of New England early this morning. with pronounced ridging extending thru the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. We will see some increase in mid/high clouds later tonight across our NW CWA as the leading edge of increasing moisture drops into our area well in advance of approaching low pressure over the Northern Plains. Forecast period begins with a large area of high pressure centered overhead of the eastern Great lakes through Maine. As the remnants of Ian continue to move eastward, so does the high pressure overhead. This will bring increased cloudiness Tuesday ahead of a developing area of low pressure over the northern Great Plains.
as an upper level low -- presently situated over eastern Montana -- gradually progresses eastward across the Dakotas (Today through Tuesday night). as small amplitude waves (rounding the base of the aforementioned upper low) traverse the Rockies and progress ENE-NE across the High Plains. With the strongest upper forcing relegated well north of the Tri-State area (in closer proximity to the upper low).