Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES IT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENING THE HIGH RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEN PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE MID CONTINENT. FOR MID WEEK A DRY LINE WILL DROP SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WRAPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS.
224 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFF THE COAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
CREATING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE STATES. MAIN AXIS OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHEAST. JONES/LYMAN/STANLEY COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY EXITING THIS CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS AND WETTER SNOW SHOULD KEEP ANY BLOWING TO A MINIMUM ONCE THE SNOW STOPS.
FALLING PRESSURES AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM ERN MT THROUGH FAR SERN SD AND SEPARATES COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH/EAST WITH WARMER AIR SOUTH/WEST. FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS OUR CWFA GIVEN THE DIFFICULT TIMING OF THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER. UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS RATHER QUICKLY EWD WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY AFTN. UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY OVER SRN WY/NRN CO TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE MID-60S WILL BE COMMON. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING RIGHT NOW DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AND WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH IS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TODAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS EVENING AND THEN START DETERIORATING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. STRONG NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. AREAS UNDER THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW. HIGH WIND SPEED WORDING WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGH WIND THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.
144 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
356 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected through the week, with an increase in winds and a slight cool down for the start of the weekend. The Sierra and northwest Nevada remain under the cold core of an area of low pressure. This system will begin to exit the region tonight with a ridge of high pressure building over the west.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE INTENSIFIED DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
226 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A few mountain showers will linger this evening, otherwise dry weather with warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week. A few mountain showers are lingering this afternoon as upper level trough moves into the Great Basin. Precipitation chances will diminish tonight as ridging begins to build in. This ridge will remain in control through the end of the work week with dry weather and generally fair skies. May serve to weaken the ridge a bit and bring increased cloud cover to northern mountains though.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WHICH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS PROGGED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ALBEIT VERY LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY INCREASING THE SOUTH FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER RETURNS REGION-WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A 544DM UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE INTERSECTION OF IDAHO. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FURTHER INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PAC/COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AND BREEZY TODAY AS THE LAST OF THE TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS HAS MOVED THROUGH.
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK WAVE TOPPING THE BROAD CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM. WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
128 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A 547DM UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. PLACING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN COOLER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS VERSUS YESTERDAY AND WILL END THE DAY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PAC/COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
206 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
An upper low pressure system circulating over southeast Washington and northeast Oregon is expected to move over the Camas Prairie later this afternoon and evening. This upper low will bring a return for a few inches of heavy wet snowfall above 2500 feet through Wednesday morning. This type of wet heavy snow may pose impacts to power lines across north central Idaho and potential travel impacts to the higher elevations such as Whitebird Grade.
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO THE FA TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD HOWEVER CLOUDS MAY TEMPER MINS A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY WITH PCPN POTENTIAL FROM MID WEST STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE FA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 358 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD IS PLACING RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR SUBTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ACTIVATED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOME FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are becoming more common east of I-55 and the highest gusts the last several hours have been from Bloomington to Champaign, where they are now reaching 40 mph as of 2 pm. With the slightly slower track of the system, the instability axis ahead of the system's cold front does not reach the forecast area until well into the evening.
These winds will continue through tonight and Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west.
1216 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGHS ARE FORECAST NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOCUS TURNS TO MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DEFORMATION AXIS BEHIND THE LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WHILE COLD AIR DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PLAY HAVOC ON TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR NORTH WHILE IN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR SOUTH.
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL HELP TO CALM WINDS AND START A WARMING TREND AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL BUT SEASONAL DAYS.
WITH DECENT MIXING AND PROXIMITY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
354 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD INTO IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THAT BAND SOUTHWARD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THE RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. OF COURSE IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
341 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING REACHING PEAK MATURATION ON WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH.
Also of concern is strong surface winds underneath the low-level jet. The upper low will deepen as it dives southeastward into the Central Plains by Wednesday morning. Extreme northern Missouri may also see snow develop overnight Wednesday as temperatures will quickly drop into the low 30s.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL FAST MOVING PACIFIC TROF MOVED ASHORE LAST NIGHT.
THESE WINDS AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT GET AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN WITH THE WARMER READINGS BEING IN THE WEST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
Although we expect another cool night, min temps will generally be around 5 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.
244 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
TYPICAL EARLY SPRING WX UNDER COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER WARMING SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING DRYING WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
350 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING REACHING PEAK MATURATION ON WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
COOL, MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT AND A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR WESTSIDE MAY GET NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS OUT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
COMPACT AND POWERHOUSE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST COLORADO AT MIDNIGHT TO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY DAWN. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
231 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW. LOWS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT.
ONE MORE MAINLY DRY DAY, THEN INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA KEEPING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN MARCH. ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN FULL SWING TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S READINGS.
244 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST.
ONE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE THE LOW SNOW RATIOS IN THE AREA DURING TIME OF BEST FORCING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CENTERS A 1030 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST.
41 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
A QUIET WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
422 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
The persistent and strong southerly winds will lead to an increase in low level moisture overnight and into tomorrow, although judging by the low to mid 50s dew points just onshore along the Gulf, likely not to the degree depicted in the models. The most likely area for development will be across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as the cold front overtakes the dryline. Despite skepticism about the low level moisture return, there should be enough instability and definitely enough deep layer shear that isolated severe weather, including both hail and wind potential, will be possible during the evening.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U. WE DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
BUT MIN RH PERCENTAGES IN THE LOW 20S TO THE TEENS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST.
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1028 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE PRODUCING WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS MUCH COLDER AIR AND LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
300 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UP TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DAY TO DAY WARM UP.
A Pacific cold front will move across West Central Texas late Wednesday morning, resulting in increasing west winds of 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Upper level trough axis shifts east Wednesday Night, with a cold front overtaking the dryline and pushing through the area.
1220 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016/ A COLD START HAS GIVEN WAY TO TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT 10 AM. PRODUCING SOME FROSTY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS. FURTHER WEST MOSTLY FROST WAS SEEN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CURRENTLY IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GA. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER 30S INTO THE LOWER 20S.
416 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO MOVE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE LOW FORMS. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH CRASHING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE KS BORDER RANGING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE SD BORDER. 500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. BUT THERE MAY BE A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE BACK EDGE DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH A CLOUD DECK IN THE 050-080 RANGE MOVING INTO NEBRASKA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
Models are all showing a series of upper level troughs will transit the northern tier of states sending periodic cold fronts into west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
WAA will be further on the increase on Saturday out ahead of a surface front being forced into the Plains by an upper level trough moving from the eastern Rockies into the central High Plains.
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR THE KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS. DAMPENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA TODAY.
MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS AND HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. BUT WAS DAMPENING AS IT ENCOUNTERED RIDGING TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE A MORE BROAD TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A PIECE OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK AWAY AND TRACK INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
1127 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2015 LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER IOWA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST.
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN FROM OREGON TO BOISE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE SHOWERS GOING FROM BURNS TO ABOUT MOUNTAIN HOME /WHERE JUST A TRACE OCCURRED.
A LARGE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY AGAIN AT SUNRISE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
110 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER.
AN ESTABLISHED LEESIDE TROUGH FROM ERN MT THROUGH ERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST MIXING SUCH AS PINE RIDGE AT 39 DEGREES AND THEDFORD AT 34 DEGREES. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW AND WEST COAST. A CUSP OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO WESTERN NEBR. AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE MOVED ON BY THAT TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT.
TRENDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 1027 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2015/ SUNNY SKIES AND LGT EASTERLY WINDS RESULT OF LARGE OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH STRETCHES SWWD ACROSS OUR REGION. UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE 300 MB RIDGE ALSO SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST.