Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Nocturnal cooling and arrival of large scale subsidence behind exiting upper trough will ensure fair weather the rest of the night. Upper level ridging over the Grt Lks will expand eastward into Pennsylvania Saturday, providing fair and significantly warmer conditions. Ensemble mean 800mb temps of 12-13C and mainly sunny skies should support high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s over the Alleghenies, to around 90F in the Susquehanna Valley (5-15F above average). Fair weather is expected beneath building ridge Saturday night. Building ridge aloft will bring warmer and slightly lower dewpoint air to the region this weekend.
809 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Scattered thunderstorms will move out of Northeast PA late this afternoon as high pressure builds toward our region. Much warmer temperatures will arrive for the weekend. Gusty south winds will push a much warmer airmass into NY and PA Saturday.
710 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 High pressure will move over West Virginia overnight, then become absorbed into the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. The ridge will extend from the Atlantic Coast westward to the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
909 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. This dry air and building high pressure should maintain a clear night, with lows around 5 degrees above average. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
Weakening high pressure will still linger over the Great Basin continuing the hot weather over the silver state.
23Z surface analysis showed trough extending across the state NE to SW and just moving through the Bismarck area. The rest of Saturday then looks to be slightly cooler yet still warm and see light winds. A stronger cold front will push through Saturday night bringing the next threat for widespread strong to severe storms.
944 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A quiet night is in store as high pressure provides us with clear skies and light winds. Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS will amplify on Saturday, and rising mid-level heights will result in another dry day, with temps pushing a few degrees above normal.
It was warm across the region with temps in the lower 80s across nearly all of the plains with temps around 70F in the larger valleys. I anticipate an uptick in activity as moisture as a bit more lower level moisture will make into the higher terrain and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over this region. It will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer tomorrow than today across the region, with the larger increases occurring across the plains.
Upper level low currently positioned over west central Texas continues to slowly drift northeastward this evening. High level cirrus clouds associated with the upper low will continue to spread northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and tonight. As the low continues to move closer some isolated showers could be possible late tonight across far southeastern Oklahoma.
742 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the southwest CONUS into the Upper Mississippi Valley resulting in nearly zonal flow through southern Canada. Saturday, outflow from the overnight convection should help push cooler marine layer into the north. Temps will also vary widely with readings climbing at or above 90 inland but remaining much cooler near the Great Lakes.
Hence wl likely be starting out a little warmer on Saturday, so see no reason why daytime temperatures will not reach levels comparable to today. With dewpoints most likely in the 55 to 62 degree range on Saturday, the Heat Index is still expected to be in the low to mid 90s.
A frontal boundary sinking south across Lake Superior and building high pressure across the Ohio Valley will increase the westerly gradient across srn Mi tonight, causing 1-2kt foot level winds to increase to 40-45 knots by 06Z. Daytime heating by mid to late Sat morning will allow the low level wind shear to transition to mechanical mixing as the boundary layer deepens, with WSW wind gusts topping 20 knots at times. Zonal flow aloft takes over by Saturday with broad longwave ridging encompassing the northern central US and Canada.
Main difference will be cooler temperatures; not quite as hot as today.
/issued 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021/ West Texas and eastern New Mexico are on the subsident, western periphery of an upper level low over central Texas. Showers and thunderstorms are markedly less today than yesterday and convection will further diminish over the weekend as the upper low very gradually moves off to the east. In it's wake high pressure over northern Mexico will strengthen and build north with the ridge axis sitting directly over our CWA.
An upper level ridge has moved into the region allowing for temperatures to surge to above record breaking temperatures. A cold front will drop out of southern Canada overnight. Another round of precipitation is expected to develop again as a secondary cold front works its way in from the west. MLCAPE values are near 2100 J/kg, with dew points in the low to mid 60s and mid level lapse rates around 7.
With daytime heating and an upper low in the area, cigs will lift back to VFR by mid afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. As the upper low that has impacted the area with recent rains, still spins over the state, continued scattered showers are in the area and will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. As for Saturday, little change to the upper pattern, the area will still be under the influence of that upper low.
926 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 High pressure will move over West Virginia overnight, then become absorbed into the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. The ridge will extend from the Atlantic Coast westward to the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
720 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dy weather is expected tonight under building high pressure. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
An upper level ridge has moved into the region allowing for temperatures to surge to above record breaking temperatures. A cold front will drop out of southern Canada overnight. MLCAPE values are near 2100 J/kg, with dew points in the low to mid 60s and mid level lapse rates around 7.
928 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A seasonably mild night is taking shape across the TN Valley, with temps generally in the lower 70s across the area. Southerly flow will be advecting in moisture over the weekend as the upper-trough and low pressure system slowly drifts into east Texas and the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend.
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible again tomorrow morning and afternoon as a upper level low over the state begins to exit northeastward.
1007 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 The mid-latitudes have invaded northern Mexico, noted on water vapor imagery by the two separate vorticity maxima within the negatively-tilted trough axis. Mean layer ridging building northeast across the Gulf of Mexico resulted in rising heights at 500 and 200 mb on the 00Z KKEY RAOB. No changes in the lower troposphere at 00Z. High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda supports gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A persistent high pressure cell centered over the western North Atlantic will be the dominant influence on winds and seas. Breezes will freshen as the high pressure cell expands westward over most of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico.
1023 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A weak low pressure trough remains nearby into Saturday. High pressure will then build to the west this weekend.
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A mid/upper ridge remains anchored over the Southwest with the ridge axis extending downstream over the Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains. A persistence-type forecast is anticipated through the upcoming week with seasonably mild temperatures expected The subtle mid/upper trough that lifted out of the Southern Plains is progged to become stationary across the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley area through the entire period.
448 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A warm, dry, and quiet afternoon and evening in store for the region today as high pressure and upper level ridging continues its presence over much of the western US. Overnight lows tonight from the low 50s to low 60s.
Water vapor imagery showing the upper low spinning over TX with SW flow over the Gulf pushing convective cirrus over FL eastward for clearer skies along the W coast this evening for some decent sunsets.
Little change to the overall pattern this afternoon with the upper low still spinning over Texas and northern stream energy well north of the forecast area near the US/Canada border. The pressure gradient tightens slightly tonight and a LLJ of 35-40 kts around 925mb will likely keep surface winds a bit stronger and temps a bit warmer than the past few nights; lows will fall into the mid 60s.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to drift northward in association with a nearly stationary upper level low across west central Texas. The notable change with this forecast period is that the low is starting to position itself much closer to the Four-States region, before slowly shifting north into the long- term. Highs tomorrow will likely range in the upper 70s north, to the low 80s south.
A strong but dry westerly flow aloft and a flat upper level trough will remain over the area through Saturday night. Despite the cooler temperatures and higher humidity, Saturday's winds will be stronger. Winds in the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mtn Foothills could be pushing the 45-50 mph gusts with a possible advisory needed.
The mean Westerlies remain well north and west of the area with a the weak upper low over central TX left with no real steering flow outside of general return around the Bermuda ridge that continues to influence the southeastern CONUS. A broad low amplitude trough remains over the northern Pacific into western Canada again cut out by the mean Westerlies flowing through that region.
1039 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Very little change in the overall weather pattern today through Saturday night as strong ridging noses into the Central Plains with a closed low over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain particularly warm lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge, where locally enhanced downslope flow will hold temperatures in the 70s. Temperatures overnight will only fall to the mid 60s to lower 70s, again locally warmer east of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A mid/upper ridge remains anchored over the Southwest with the ridge axis extending downstream over the Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains. A persistence-type forecast is anticipated through the upcoming week with seasonably mild temperatures expected The subtle mid/upper trough that lifted out of the Southern Plains is progged to become stationary across the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley area through the entire period.
240 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A mid to upper ridge will prevail from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the southwest North Atlantic Ocean. South Florida will remain under the western periphery of high pressure centered to our northeast.
Temperatures aloft at h700mb rise to 13-15C with the higher temperatures across wrn and nrn Nebraska. A Pacific cold front across the Northwest U.
136 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Low-amplitude ridging covers the northern tier of states, with an upper trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest.
Highs will once again be in the mid to upper 80s, with isolated locations in north central Indiana exceeding 90, most namely Lafayette where a warmer microclimate has been observed.
Main concern is potential for windy conditions on Saturday afternoon over North Central MT, along with scattered thunderstorms in the Lewistown area and portions of Southwest MT, as a cold front/wind shift moves through the region during the afternoon hours. Will continue to hold off on any issuing any high wind highlights due to the isolated and likely brief nature of the higher wind gusts.
1256 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
356 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure centered along the East Coast will expand further west across the southern Great Lakes throughout the weekend and persist through midweek.
1142 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Hot temperatures remain in the forecast as high pressure remains in control over the desert southwest. As expected, plenty of afternoon heating caused some convection to fire this afternoon over the higher terrain with cells drifting southward.
(Today and tonight) The broad, weak low pressure trough, currently seen over central Texas on the water vapor satellite imagery, is producing light rain across north Texas. As this low shifts N/NE towards the Red River, showers and thunderstorm chances diminish and shift eastward by this evening. Areas south/east of I-44 are expected to be cooler than western and northern Oklahoma, with highs in the 70s. Tonight, the low will reach central Oklahoma which will keep some cloudcover over the area.
126 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will move over West Virginia overnight, then become absorbed into the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. The ridge will extend from the Atlantic Coast westward to the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
Deep tropical moisture along with the passage of that slow pesky upper low and daytime heating will help with shower/thunderstorm formation.
1037 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 At 1 PM, a strong ridge of high pressure was producing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Low temperatures will in the lower and mid 60s in central and north-central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Saturday night will be another warm night across the region with low temperatures in the lower to mid-60s in central and north- central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
219 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Building high pressure allows for dry weather through the weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to upper 80s for the lowlands and 70s to lower 80s along the higher elevations.
A frontal boundary sinking south across Lake Superior and building high pressure across the Ohio Valley will increase the westerly gradient across srn Mi during the predawn hours, causing 1-2kt foot level winds to increase to 40-45 knots. Daytime heating by mid to late Sat morning will then allow the low level wind shear to transition to mechanical mixing as the boundary layer deepens, with WSW wind gusts topping 20 knots at times by afternoon. Zonal flow aloft takes over by Saturday with broad longwave ridging encompassing the northern central US and Canada.
303 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri continue to sit on the northwest edge of high pressure centered over the southeastern US. Little change in the synoptic pattern over the next 24 hours with zonal flow to our north and ridging to our southeast and a closed low over Texas that will slowly lift northeastward over the next 24 hours.
1201 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A weak low pressure trough remains nearby into Saturday. High pressure will then build to the west this weekend.
Today will synoptically be similar to yesterday with the dome of unusually warm temps underneath upper ridging nudging its way back into the region.
357 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Region remains in the transition zone between the weak upper ridging along the Atlantic coast and the weak closed upper low over the southern plains. Although best convective coverage will be each afternoon with the addition of surface heating, cannot rule out at least a slight chance of precipitation through the overnight hours as the forecast area remains vulnerable to any weak waves ejecting out of the southern plains low and riding up the western side of the weak ridge. A deep trough just to the west of the MS River Valley persists into the first of the week. A deep southerly flow of moisture into the southeast continues ahead of this trough.
You can expect a mix of sun and clouds today with highs around 3 degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure currently bringing fair wx will be replaced by moist, southerly low level flow and the influence of a large upper level low pressure system. The low pressure currently over Texas will move to the Mid Ms Valley over the next couple of days, then drift over the Ohio Valley by late week.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Central Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado. An uneventful pattern will continue today into tonight as an extremely weak upper level ridge moves quickly east through the Central Plains before lifting into the Upper Northeast. Prevailing low level southerlies will continue to reinforce a warmer air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas resulting in afternoon high temperatures once again well up into the mid 80s(F) to near 90F. Expect lows generally down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower/mid 60s(F) tonight.
Mid/high clouds will continue to increase early this morning into the day Saturday from south to north in response to approaching upper low. Upper level low currently positioned over west central Texas continues to slowly drift northeastward this evening. High level cirrus clouds associated with the upper low will continue to spread northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and tonight. As the low continues to move closer some isolated showers could be possible late tonight across far southeastern Oklahoma.
102 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the southwest CONUS into the Upper Mississippi Valley resulting in nearly zonal flow through southern Canada. Saturday, outflow from the overnight convection should help push cooler marine layer into the north. Temps will also vary widely with readings climbing at or above 90 inland but remaining much cooler near the Great Lakes.
1057 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A warm, dry, and quiet afternoon and evening in store for the region today as high pressure and upper level ridging continues its presence over much of the western US. Overnight lows tonight from the low 50s to low 60s.
Mostly clear conditions throughout the night have allowed temperatures to cool into the low to mid 60s. For the rest of today, abundant sunshine is expected as the region is dominated by high pressure.
247 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Upper ridging and high pressure at the surface will keep us warm and dry today. As we move into the overnight, some deeper moisture will begin to funnel south to north into our region between the upper ridge over the SE CONUS and a closed upper low over the Red River Valley.
257 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A slow moving low pressure system continues to trod through the Red River Valley in to the ArklaTex this morning with a strong inverted ridge pushing into the CWA from the northeast.
A quiet night is in store as high pressure provides us with clear skies and light winds. Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS will amplify on Saturday, and rising mid-level heights will result in another dry day, with temps pushing a few degrees above normal.
356 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 80 68 82 / 20 20 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 80 67 82 / 10 20 70 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 80 66 81 / 10 20 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 63 83 65 81 / 0 10 60 30 70.
A strong but dry westerly flow aloft and a flat upper level trough will remain over the area through Saturday night. Despite the cooler temperatures and higher humidity, Saturday's winds will be stronger. Winds in the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mtn Foothills could be pushing the 45-50 mph gusts with a possible advisory needed. A large scale upper level trough feature will be the driver behind the weather through the short term. This trough will keep temperatures cooler than normal though the weekend as well as provide periods of breezy to windy conditions. Currently a low pressure system passing through the trough is moving into western Canada and move eastward on Saturday.
TWH Strong upper level ridge over the region is slowly flattening in response to a Pacific jet in western Canada. Main upper trof along the BC coast will push into the northern Rockies tomorrow. Mid level temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler, and shear greater, so it looks as if convection will have a better chance of producing larger hail. in addition to strong wind gusts which will again be the higher risk. Cold front will finally bring cooler Pacific air tomorrow night.
A seasonably mild night is taking shape across the TN Valley, with temps generally in the lower 70s across the area. Southerly flow will be advecting in moisture over the weekend as the upper-trough and low pressure system slowly drifts into east Texas and the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend.
328 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Upper level low presently centered over central TX will be the main feature of interest for this forecast as it slowly lifts to the NNE over the next several days.
With a cutoff low still anchored over Texas, we'll continue to have moisture advecting into our region as we get dew points into the low 70s. However, with the subtropical ridge to our east, subsidence may cap off any convective potential today. Expect daytime highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Given the aforementioned in situ environment, and due to decreasing forcing for ascent as an upper level ridge builds across Florida and the Bahamas, have opted to decrease rain chances today slightly (from around 30% to 20%), with similar rain chances through the end of the week.
300 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Another very hot day ahead as upper level ridging spreads across the area. While this will not exactly make hings cooler, it could knock a couple of degrees off of the high temperatures.
345 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough now over central Texas, with an upper ridge to follow.
With the upper low sitting over TX/OK today, southerly flow will begin to increase moisture values and depth later today. High temperatures should still reach the lower to middle 80s.
2)Warmer temperatures today with highs in the mid to upper 80's across the valley and upper 70's to low 80's in the higher terrain. Today the upper low centered across the southern plains will gradually lift NE while heights begin to increase across the southeast and southern Appalachians. Believe increasing heights and lack of forcing will keep much of the area dry today but cannot rule out a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms mostly confined to portions of the southern valley and along the high terrain of East Tennessee.
An upper low moving north out of Texas will be the main player in the weather over the next few days. This low will slowly move north over the next several days and will help trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lower Mississippi Valley.
1234 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Quiet conditions are expected through the short term as upper level ridging persists.
Given the moist airmass, locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out mainly along and south of the Highway 98 corridor, but no widespread issues are expected yet.