Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low has moved into the Northern Rockies with the omega block ridge axis now near the Dakotas/Minnesota border. The entire system will continue to shift east today as the upper low lifts toward Saskatchewan. While the omega block breaks down over the next few days, the longwave trof will linger over the western states through most of the week. Cooler weather expected for the next few days with the upper trof over the region. Moisture wrapped around the stalled Canadian low will bring a threat of showers or thunderstorms to mainly north central Montana, but storms could spread into eastern Montana with the cooler unstable airmass. Winds expected to be stronger on Monday with the low spinning over southern Saskatchewan.
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure ridge over eastern IA providing clear skies and light winds across the cwa. Today, another fantastic spring day with high pressure ridge gradually shifting into IL by late afternoon. This should push afternoon readings into the lower 80s at many locations, with a couple of spots (including MLI) reaching 84 or so. Tonight, dry airmass and clear skies again as the ridge axis will be over IL keeping our counties near and east of the MS river in light winds. However, in the western cwa the return southeast flow will keep readings a bit warmer than guidance. On Monday, expect warm temperatures in the low 80s, with an increasing south wind boosting dewpoints into the 50s.
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Low pressure over West Virginia will move to the east coast tonight. A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will drop across the area on Sunday.
328 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A trough of low pressure over the western states will weaken slightly today.
Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column are building back into the Wrn Great Lakes region behind this front. High pressure center will build south out of Ontario into Michigan today and tonight. Afternoon highs will peak mainly in the lower 70s. cooler near the lakeshores. Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the region under mostly clear skies Monday into Monday night. It will be very warm Monday as well with highs pushing well into the 70s to the lower 80s.
230 AM MST SUN MAY 22 2016 Low pressure will remain situated over the western United States throughout this week bringing dry and tranquil weather to southeast California and most of Arizona. With the strongest vorticity center already lifting into Montana early this morning, heights aloft will remain steady over the forecast area for the next 48 hours as the low level pressure gradient weakens even further.
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys early this week as low pressure lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. As of 300 AM: Upper trough now centered over the Mid-Atlantic will deepen over the Eastern Seaboard thru tonight. A few showers are seen on radar within this cloud deck, but downsloping closer to the Blue Ridge Escarpment is preventing the clouds or showers from expanding further into the area. Mid-level lapse rates remain rather strong this afternoon thanks to the cooler air within the trough, and another embedded wave enters the area from the north in the late aftn.
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 00z upper-air analysis showed a substantial trough over the western U. with an amplified downstream ridge from the central Plains into Canadian Prairie Provinces. In response, a weak surface wave will develop from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley by 12z Monday, along a cold front advancing east through the northern and central Plains. Despite increasing clouds, we should see slightly warmer temperatures today; in the mid 70s to around 80. Thunderstorms which are expected to develop along the cold front over western Nebraska this afternoon and evening should begin to affect portions of northeast Nebraska late tonight before spreading east and southeast across the remainder of the area Monday morning into afternoon.
607 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure will provide several more days of dry and warm weather to the region. Highs today will range from the lower 70s over south central Lower Michigan to near 80 over west central Indiana.
Otherwise, expect lows to be mainly in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Upper level ridging will then be seen for Sun into Sun night. the ridging aloft will weaken.
A very persistent upper level trough will continue to reside over the West Coast of the United States. This will mean cooler than normal temperatures through the period.
155 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys early this week as low pressure lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will build in across the mtns. as the high remains centered over the Mississippi River Valley. H5 closed low centered over VA will continue to support generally moist NW flow across the west facing mtn slopes.
623 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A few showers will be possible across the Scioto Valley this afternoon as a low pressure system pushes off to the east.
638 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys early this week as low pressure lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. As of 635 AM: An upper trough will deepen over the Eastern Seaboard thru tonight. On the upstream side of this trough, plentiful low level moisture and upsloping flow along the TN/NC border are generating a layer of low clouds and a few very light showers. Downsloping closer to the Blue Ridge Escarpment is preventing the clouds or showers from expanding further into the area. Mid-level lapse rates remain rather strong this afternoon thanks to the cooler air within the trough, and another embedded wave enters the area from the north in the late aftn.
The slow moving cold front will clear the area this afternoon.
Low temperatures are generally expected to range from the lower 60s across the northern areas to upper 60s along the coast and southeast Big Bend. A digging wave should close off into a low along the North Carolina coast by Sunday Night or Monday Morning, carving out a trough along the Atlantic coast. The result will be fairly deep NW-N flow, ridging building in at the lower levels of the troposphere, and dry, sunny weather.
341 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Today looks to be the last quiet day for a while, thanks to an upper-level ridge overhead, downstream of a large trough over the western U. Subsidence within the ridge will provide mostly sunny skies through the afternoon while return southerly low-level flow allows temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees across most of the forecast area. Upper ridge will shift to the east tonight, allowing southwesterly upper-level flow to develop across the Plains. The first round of thunderstorms may spread into eastern KS and western MO late tonight into Monday morning as convective activity across the High Plains spreads eastward overnight.
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in through the first part of the week, bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures. The upper low becomes more broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high pressure works into the west. Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which extends up into the Great Lakes.
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure will provide several more days of dry and warm weather to the region. Highs today will range from the lower 70s over south central Lower Michigan to near 80 over west central Indiana.
236 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Cooler than normal weather will continue over the central California interior for much of this week as an upper level storm system resides along the West coast. A trough pattern will persist over the region and much of the western United States for the next several days due to a blocking pattern, with a ridge of high pressure to the east of the Rocky Mountains including over much of the southern states and into the upper Midwest.
Big high pressure will continue to bring the area nearly ideal weather into Monday. Look for highs today a few degrees warmer than yesterday with dew points still mixing out and on the dry side. The higher dewpoints start to sneak in here on Monday as the ridge slides east and southerly winds return. High High pressure will bring very pleasant weather to start the work week.
This upper trough is forecast to remain centered over the area through Monday and bring a continued showery pattern.
500 mb ridging will build steadily over the south central plains states and northern mexico increasing subsidence throughout the short term. Since the NAM is the outlier and considering the strength of the 500 mb ridging building over the region will go closer to the drier GFS/ECMWF. Will go closer to the warmer side of temp guidance through today and Monday due to the increasing 1000-500 mb thicknesses.
The area of high pressure will continue to move east of the region tonight and sunday. A stronger southerly flow will develop sunday morning on the backside of the high. Upper level ridging will cover northwest Wisconsin Sunday night while an upper trof moves into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will occur in the vicinity of the upper trof. On Monday, the frontal boundary moves into the forecast area as the upper trof weakens a bit. Adjusted pops on Monday to reflect the slow movement of the front/upper trof and have highest pops west, lower pops east.
/Issued / The much advertised cold front has pushed south of a Columbus to Macon line with radar showing the associated convection out ahead now moving south and east of the forecast area. 41 Models in good agreement showing a slow-moving upper level low pressure system centered around the NC/VA coast Monday morning. A fairly sharp upper ridge will extend from the Lower MS River Valley well north across the central Great Lakes. Temps will rebound a bit, back into the lower-mid 80s for many locations with slightly cooler mid-upper 70s in the higher terrain of extreme north GA.
Still pretty dry in the lowest levels /the 00Z KABR sounding indicates 850 mb dewpoint depressions at approximately 20 C/. a large upper level trough of low pressure over the Pac NW will slowly lift northeastward into SC Canada by 0Z Monday. A very broad positive tilt trof is expected to exist from south central Canada southwest into the extreme southwest CONUS.
1024 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will move through the area tonight.
The main shower band with the trough will move through the mountains in the middle and later parts of the night. The cooler temperatures will reduce fire danger concerns.
Sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are expected Friday as weak high pressure builds into Wisconsin.
(The rest of tonight) Chilly night on tap for the area as high pressure centered across ERN OK/NW AR slowly slides east overnight.
654 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A mix of mid and high clouds are funneling into the western half of the forecast area behind the passing weak cold frontal boundary. East of the front, winds were southerly over the Highway 83 corridor, with decreasing northeast winds over the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. Tonight, the cold front is expected to move through all but the far southeast portion of the forecast area as the attendant upper low moves into western Manitoba.
Hoenisch Scattered rain and snow showers will diminish this evening over the region, with a return to a slightly warmer and drier day on Friday.
This rain is associated with the main upper trough axis associated with all our weather yesterday finally swinging through the region. Aft 12Z, look for high pressure to begin building in with clearing skies.
513 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will move through the area this evening.
758 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front pushes east of our area this evening and be off the Carolina coast early Friday.
Clouds have largely diminished for this afternoon as we remain under a weakening high pressure system. The area of high pressure will remain over the area through the weekend with marine pushes at the coast bringing stratus and some fog in the overnight periods before things burn off in the afternoon.
Sfc analysis this afternoon highlights westerly post-frontal flow across the region, with the cold front that brought showers and gusty winds last night now pushing through West Virginia and the East Coast states. Precip chances will exit the region by 12z tomorrow as the primary trough axis pushes to our east. There is potential for some areas of frost across our region as temperatures dip into the low 30s by tomorrow morning. Expect afternoon highs to be in the low to mid 50s for most. Friday evening chilly high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley but by sunrise it will have moved eastward to the Virginias. In addition to the core of the high moving away, high clouds will begin to increase from the west after midnight ahead of the next system.
531 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Current surface map shows warm front across western South Dakota.
900 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A mid/upper level area of low pressure will clip the area late this evening and bring cloud cover and some isolated pockets of light rain to the area.
South Arkansas will become clear in the next hour or two as high pressure builds into the area.
555 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Scattered rain and snow showers will diminish this evening over the region, with a return to a slightly warmer and drier day on Friday.
While not expecting a strong storm by any means, models do have enough QPF to generate a few inches of snow over the higher peaks along the divide, with perhaps some slushy/briefly icy roads over high mountain passes early Fri morning. On Friday, wave crosses the state, with best forcing for precip from the morning into early afternoon, as trough will be east of the CO/KS line after 21z. Cold front will race south through the area early in the day, with gusty north winds along and east of the mountains into the afternoon.
Amplified upper-level ridging has moved over the High Plains this afternoon as a downstream trough moves east of our region. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase in advance of this approaching trough which may limit the warmer temperatures a bit in portions of our northwestern CWA.
938 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight.
500 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated short wave trough moving into the region with another strong short wave trough digging into Montana behind it. At the surface, ridge was centered over eastern CWA, with lee trough developing across eastern Colorado. Fairly quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as aforementioned short wave ridge moves over the area and trough intensifies. Main concern for Friday will be cold front sweeping across the area as next short wave trough moves through.
722 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 (Issued 721 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022) The steady light snow will continue through the evening hours as the passing upper trough is slow moving.
Temperatures trend warmer mid to late week. The Evening Update: Satellite imagery indicates the ridge axis has shifted Ewd to virtually the W Coast with dry subsiding air over Norcal. A milder day is forecast for Fri as high pressure moves over the area. But some cooling is possible across the Nrn zones on Sat due to minor synoptic cooling as a trof moves across the Pac NW. Temperatures are already running a solid 4 to 9 deg F warmer compared to 24 hours ago, which will translate similarly to the afternoon highs. Upper-level ridge axis will drift over the West Coast on Friday, allowing for further warming as the work week concludes.
234 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Taking a look at the weather map this morning we have a 500mb low over eastern Saskatchewan with a trough south across eastern MT/WY and UT/CO. The first is the low over eastern CO, which is helping to bring light snow to western South Dakota that will expand across northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota during the morning hours. This and the 500mb trough will help allow scattered showers to develop in the afternoon.
An upper level trough in the Rockies will move through western Kansas during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Before the trough arrives we should start off the day on the mild side as winds out of the southwest and warm 850 mb temperatures will be the case. Winds today ahead and behind the front should be breezy and by late afternoon with the trough and associated lift we should start to see some scattered rain showers develop along the front. Tonight the upper level trough will pass to the east and this should end any precip chances pretty quickly after sunset. Skies will quickly clear and winds diminish as a high pressure center enters into the state.
1045 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: - Sub-freezing temperatures Friday morning.
(Today and Tonight) After a chilly start this morning with many locations near or below freezing, a good warmup is expected this afternoon.
Across the west, we're starting to see the upstream ridge influence the region, and dry air has brought an end to the earlier light lake effect and helped to scour out clouds. Expect the upstream ridge to continue progressing into the region this morning. Ridge of high pressure (as mentioned above) will allow for drying conditions today, looking to go briefly precip-free later today into early tonight. However, the next precip chances move in quickly tonight, riding along the front side of the next approaching trough.
1122 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Current surface map shows warm front across western South Dakota.
402 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Much cooler temperatures and scattered rain and snow showers today.
1208 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 (The rest of tonight) Chilly night on tap for the area as high pressure centered across ERN OK/NW AR slowly slides east overnight.
That will be replaced by subsidence/ drying this morning as the upper low opens up and accelerates eastward.
Look for dry weather today with highs in the lower to middle 40s.
Compared to 24 hours ago, the lower atmosphere has warmed 1-2 degrees C.
(Today and tonight) A mid/upper trough currently moving across the Rockies will move into and across the Plains later today and tonight. However, the trough is expected to bring some mid-level moisture to the region. The drier low levels will likely lead to inverted V soundings this afternoon/evening that could cause some damaging wind gusts with some of the high based showers/storms, mainly in western portions of the fa.
920 PM PDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A deep marine layer will continue into the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland, onto the lower coastal mountain slopes at times. Upper level high pressure across the eastern Pacific will strengthen and expand along the West Coast during the middle of the week. Weak ridging will be present over the area Friday which should result in better clearing than today along with temps a few degrees warmer.
This rain is associated with the main upper trough axis associated with all our weather yesterday finally swinging through the region.
Parent longwave trough simultaneously slides across the central Great Lakes today aiding column cooling and subsequently morning snow shower potential. Bulk of saturation/ascent occurs in the lowest bounds of the DGZ and below reducing ratios, further limiting possible snow amounts. Below average temperatures return today thanks to the upper level trough as 850mb temps fall to -8 to -10C. As a result, highs struggle to get any higher than the low 40s. Ridging influence quickly takes hold second half of the day on the heels of the departing wave drawing a drier airmass back into the area.
1255 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Much cooler temperatures and scattered rain and snow showers today.
All in all, should be a nice day on tap with plenty of sun and warmer temperatures climbing through the 40s.
/AJ/ Tonight and Friday: Cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected through the period. Despite the insolation temperatures will again top out cooler than normal from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.
338 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Early morning temps currently range from the low to mid 40s across the Valley as high pressure builds to the west and an upper trough axis shifts east toward the Atlantic. Will maintain a dry forecast through the weekend as high pressure largely remains dominant.
158 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 We begin this Friday with cool temperatures and decreasing cloudiness as high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure over the central Atlantic will continue eastward, resulting in a slackening gradient over the island chain and surrounding waters.
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 West Texas remains under zonal flow aloft and a broken deck of high clouds early this morning as a deepening upper level trough axis pivots eastward through the Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will quickly exit the region to the east this evening as the cold front punches southward through the forecast area.
343 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Discussion/Marine - Snow Diminishes then High Pressure Leads to A Quiet Friday - Troughing will continue to exit to our east into New England as ridging across the northern plains slides into the Great Lakes.
(Today and tonight) Currently, we have fast zonal flow across the area, with an upper level low moving east through the Great Lakes, and another trough moving southeast through the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will be much warmer, reaching into the low to mid 80s, and moisture will also increase on the southerly flow. A cold front will follow behind the upper low tonight as it moves through OK. Due to cold temperatures aloft associated with the low, mid level lapse rates will increase, and combine with increasing moisture and the frontal boundary to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas generally north of a Sweetwater to Brownwood line from late this afternoon into the late evening hours.
There could even be a couple rumbles of thunder and localized graupel given the low freezing levels. Showers will decrease into the evening, with high pressure building over the region.
319 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 With the upper-level low having moved through the Quad State, we are left with the upper trough which is slowly progressing eastward. Clouds are rotating through with the upper trough and have been slow to clear out, with only much of Southeast Missouri and the Purchase area in Western Kentucky seeing decent clearing at this point. With light northerly winds during the morning, forecast highs have shifted a bit lower, mainly the low to mid 50s.
A mid/upper level area of low pressure will clip the area late this evening and bring cloud cover and some isolated pockets of light rain to the area.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Arklatex region with lee troughing starting to strengthen. There is decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in a more robust trough starting to dig across the Northern Rockies and will begin to close off over the Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley by late Tue night. This will bring increased precip chances Tue night along with cooler and windy conditions for Wed through Thu. South winds will increase on Friday ahead of the next upper trof approaching from the Rockies.
Otherwise, upper level low pressure continues to gradually churn to the east from Saskatchewan through Manitoba during the day today.
Weak high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley will shift eastward overnight.
The leading edge of the cold front has moved into the far western panhandle. The H5 trough axis extended from eastern MT through central WY and western CO. For today, the upper trough will advance eastward, extending south form central North Dakota south into western Oklahoma. A cold front will also advance eastward, with a breezy north wind across across south of Highway 2.