Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO MOVE AND COMPRESS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE EAST THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THESE STORMS DISSIPATE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL PREVAIL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CANADA ACTING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST TOWARDS THE OZARKS.
With dry conditions in place, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the lower 70s, somewhat of a break from the muggy conditions of last week.
619 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS A BIT COUPLED WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THEY SHOULD PROG EASTWARD TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL POP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEDGED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH STILL GIVES LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BROKEN RECORD AS DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED ON THE HEELS OF ARE-BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SE STATES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE.
A low pressure system will move over the area tonight and Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Tonight and Monday: A cold upper level trough will drop down over the area tonight and move eastward into Montana on Monday, bringing showers to the area. This trough has a -3 standardized anomaly, or a return interval of about once every 10 years. The strong dynamic lift associated with this trough along with the instability from the cold pool have led me to add the mention of thunderstorms as this trough passes through the area tonight and Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the trough will be east of our area, but surface based instability should result in more showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of Spokane.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL COLLIER, WITH TRAINING AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE GULF, WITH LOW PRESSURE AND MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARBY. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST WEST OF TAMPA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.
1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. THE MID-STATE WILL HOWEVER REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS UPPER HIGHS HOLD IN THE PLAINS. /ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD.
We do have an enhanced Cu field across the area, but no showers are expected as the ridge is suppressing any significant vertical development of these clouds. For tomorrow, there is an upper level low moving west across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Although the low will move to the west along a path just south of our area, the upper level ridge should continue to keep precipitation out of our area.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MID-STATE WILL HOWEVER REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS UPPER HIGHS HOLD IN THE PLAINS. /ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS WALNUT RIDGE AND BLYTHEVILLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION. AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINS OUT IT MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES REACHING BACK ABOVE CRITERIA AROUND 5 OR 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER.
937 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 94 74 96 / 20 20 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 91 73 92 / 10 30 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 88 68 88 / 10 50 30 30.
818 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVE WX WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS RAPIDLY LIFTING TO THE NE. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N/W OF THE AREA WILL ALSO QUICKLY LIFT NWD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE SW STATES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
REMAINING ONLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE IOWA GREAT LAKES. ENERGY ON THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT MID AFTERNOON. WET BULB OF THE INITIALLY DRIER LAYER BETWEEN MID LEVEL AND IN CURRENT STATE TAKES TEMPS TANTALIZINGLY INTO A +1 TO -1 ZONE AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT AFTER 15Z AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS EASTWARD. MORE LIKELY THAT SURFACE TEMPS WOULD END UP A BIT TO THE WARMER SIDE WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRANSITION ZONE INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS WELL. BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS TO THE COOLER SURFACE SIDE OF THE BAND SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE HANDLING OF A MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND THAT IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS SOME 10F DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON APPROACH INTO MID TN BY THE EVENING.
There will be a cold front that surges from west to east during the afternoon, and it's likely storms will develop with this feature along and east of a line from Branson to Crocker.
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS BY DAYBREAK. COLD FRONT DOES PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.
BUT THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKE THE ONE LAST NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RECENTLY PASSED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE SIERRA ZONES AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM. JET ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAS ALSO ENHANCED HIGH WIND ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS AROUND 90 MPH RECORDED AT MOJAVE EARLIER TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION AND WIND ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH WESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS IT MOVES INTO ND TONIGHT. AND COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
A WEST WIND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AROUND 12-14Z WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR THINGS BACK TO VFR. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PUSHING A DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPT FOR BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES AS STRONGEST FORCING PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOST OF OUR AREA.
528 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP TONIGHT AS NRN/SRN VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROF INDUCE SFC REFLECTIONS.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE/COVERAGE OVER COASTAL SE GA NEARSHORE WATERS.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE RIDGES. FRIES DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER. MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AT WHICH POINT LOW PRESSURE. WILL SWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW WA WILL DIVE SE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING PROVIDING ABOUT 6 HOURS OF ENHANCED LIFT FOR SNOW.
AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENING WITH COLD FRONT TIED WITH TWO INSTABILITY AXES. NAM IS SLOWEST WITH COLD FRONT WHILE GFS IS QUITE FAST SO WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN THESE. END RESULT IS AT LEAST ONE MORE DECENT SHOT OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALREADY DRAWING A PLUME OF DEEP MID/UPPER LVL PACIFIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH AND SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND A LVL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS AND A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.
SOME CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE CLOUD LAYER SHALLOWS OUT. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS WHERE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. BUILDING/DEEPENING TROUGHS ONTO THE WEST COAST. PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLATED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE DEEPENING SOUTHWEST TROUGH. ONE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL AND ONE FOR THE LOW LEVEL/THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. STRONGER/SHARPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WOULD MAKE THIS A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO.
Rapid pre-cold front clearing and showers/thunder ending 10z-14z. A warm front will begin to lift northward through Oklahoma and Arkansas late Christmas Day and into Christmas night as a deep upper trough digs into the southwestern United States.
LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SD WITH DECENT RETURN FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH. WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN START TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SW WITH IT MOVING OUT OVER WEST TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. LAWSON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING.
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION IS BEHIND SCHEDULED AND SHIFTED POPS BACK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR SUNRISE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 71 63 74 / 100 70 80 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 69 61 73 / 100 80 70 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 69 62 72 / 90 80 80 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 67 57 70 / 100 90 50 70.
The upper trough moves into western Kansas tonight, then moves into eastern Kansas by Wednesday morning before moving northeast Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings show some elevated instability and lapse rates steepen beneath the upper trough moving through. Temperatures should be on the mild side tonight with southerly winds keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. Highs on Wednesday with clouds and cold advection behind the cold front have kept high temperatures on the cool side in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Bottom line up front: The storm this weekend has the potential to bring heavy rains which could cause flooding, freezing rain which could accumulate along with snow especially across central and north central Kansas.
SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY BEFORE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO A VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ALONG THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
705 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 DRYING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MADE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA BEFORE LOSING MOMENTUM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOULD LOSE THE LOWER RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CAPE IN THE LOWEST 5KM WITHOUT MUCH CIN.
1005 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVERNIGHT AS AN 80-100KT H30-H20 JET LIFTS UP ITS NWRN FLANK. BUT THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACRS THE LCL ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE FLOW AS A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW TO THE ENTIRE REGION.
MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.
AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL/RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS PIVOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MSTR. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MSTR SURGES BACK NORTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT LEAD ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES CHRISTMAS DAY.
BUT LIKELY NOT FOR LONG AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CNTL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING. /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IS SET TO REACH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A DIFFUSE PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WAFFLING IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THICK CIRRUS WILL BE LESS OF A NUISCANCE TOMORROW IN THIS POST-TROUGH/DEEPER SUBSIDENCE REGIME. BREEZY WINDS EASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS BROAD TROUGH AXIS SWINGS WEST TO EAST. HEIGHT INCREASES ALOFT AND SURFACE WESTERLIES HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND WINTRY WEATHER TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST.
255 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL FORM BEHIND THE LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE SOUTH.
A LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE MOVING TROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWED BY LATE THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL AS LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE HILLS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 15C WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S AT THE COAST TO THE 80S INLAND. AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. WAA TONIGHT CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE S/WV RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST OR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
319 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING TO REMOVE RIDGING FROM THE RGV. CONTINUED THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH IS ONGOING.
521 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
321 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
Front will struggle to make too much southward progress across the area due to amplified mid/upper level ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmest minimums forecast along and just to the south of expected cold frontal boundary position by 1200 UTC Thursday.
A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight resulting in subtle cooling for Thursday but little chance of precipitation. These temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for this time of year. The high clouds should limit our radiational cooling overnight with fog not as prevalent in the mountain valleys as observed this morning.
An upper level ridge is currently over the central U. as an upper level low is located across the southwestern U. The upper level ridge and a southwest upper level flow pattern will remain over the region through Thursday. As a result the very warm conditions will continue today and Thursday as highs warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s each afternoon.
ROSE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. ENERGY BEING SPUN UP TO THE NORTH WITH THIS LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. BOTH BEGIN TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN NEAR NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT.
238 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
514 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate our weather pattern through Thursday night. A northern stream upper trof will scoot quickly from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday. The trailing surface cold front will dive southeast into Illinois and Indiana, but will weaken substantially and stall out somewhere near the Ohio River Thursday night. The warming trend will continue ever so gradually, with Thursday afternoon max temps just a couple degrees warmer than today. Tonight's mins should be several degrees warmer than the last couple of nights, as the dewpoints today have jumped into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER.
241 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.
354 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN SHIELD OVER ARIZONA NEW MEXICO COLORADO TEXAS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BUMPED LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA. MODERATE RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
342 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.