Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Large and deep upper level trough across the intermountain west will weaken some and track through the Rockies through tonight before emerging onto the western high plains Thursday. The main impact from this system will start tonight as large scale lift increases above a combo dryline/cold front moving eastward through the Permian Basin. Prefer the higher thunderstorm chances depicted on the ECMWF/GFS/CMC guidance in the Permian Basin of west Texas over the NAM given the strength of the forcing depicted with the strong upper jet passing over the forecast area. Once the upper system reaches the high plains on Thursday, precipitation chances should diminish during Thursday morning in the eastern Permian Basin with breezy to windy conditions developing many areas as the upper trough passes north of the forecast area.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US IS AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. ON THURSDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ORGANIZED STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT A SMALL LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
MIDLEVEL CIRRUS DECK MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS INHIBITED THE FORMATION OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING. SO HAVE FURTHER LIMITED THE LOW CLOUD FORMATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE H5 TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ALLOWING THE GULF RIDGE TO DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
528 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINOR CHANGE TO SKY GRIDS TO BRING SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN RIDGES. H500 RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE UNIFORMLY WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WIND.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK CIRCULATION AT MID-LEVELS /SEEN ON MORNING WV IMAGERY/ WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BOISE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER TO THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE AREA MOVES SOUTH.
The clearing and drying trend will continue through this afternoon and overnight, ultimately resulting in excellent radiational cooling and the development of some freezing fog Thursday morning. Thus, despite widespread light accumulations being possible down to around 3500ft, the light and wetter density of the snow will lead to generally less than an inch in the lower elevations.
520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z.
ONLY RADAR RETURNS ARE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FA AND WITH LATEST CAM GUIDANCE DRY PULLED THE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NW FOR THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK IN. AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN THERE MAY BE A RASN MIX HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
857 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
329 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE AREA MOVES SOUTH.
537 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST WATERS.
958 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST COAST FIRST THIS MORNING, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING A BIT OVER LAND INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIB/FL STRAITS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST.
OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 850MB SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 61 75 66 / 10 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 59 75 62 / 10 10 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 75 59 76 61 / 10 10 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 54 76 56 / 10 10 10 10.
825 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H500 RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE UNIFORMLY WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WIND.
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS REPOSITIONED FARTHER NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WAS STILL PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE SO THE MOIST LAYER WAS STILL NOT THAT DEEP. EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF THE WATERS.
642 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 ONLY RADAR RETURNS ARE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FA AND WITH LATEST CAM GUIDANCE DRY PULLED THE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NW FOR THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK IN. AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN THERE MAY BE A RASN MIX HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
515 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 136 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS A SHEARING TROF SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN MID- UPPER LEVELS WAS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIDGE POSITION. AN UPPER TROF WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY SQUELCH DENSE FOG FORMATION EXCEPT WITHIN RIDGE AND MOUNTAINTOP CLOUDS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMIT DEEPER MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DAMP AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF IT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
GENERAL REX-STYLE BLOCKING CONTINUED. WITH TROUGHING FROM THE YUKON TO THE GREAT BASIN. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO/ HUDSON BAY. A PLUS 1040 HIGH ACROSS QUEBEC WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD. BRINGING A COOLER FLOW TO THE DEEP SOUTH. 3 AM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. HAVE ORIENTED THE HIGHER POPS (LIKELY) EAST TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SUN.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as ridging at the surface and aloft prevails.
540 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
12 UTC surface analysis showed a stationary front in place along the Southeast Atlantic Coast with a non-tropical area of low pressure centered just offshore of Charleston SC. Aloft, the upper low is centered just to the west of Tallahassee and has moved little in the last 12 hours. The last day at TLH where the high temperature failed to reach 70 degrees was March 28th.
1141 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A closed low over the southeastern CONUS will continue to spread clouds and moisture back to the northwest today.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
621 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
/issued 305 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ A large upper level trough across the Rockies will move east and weaken through tonight as another much strong upper low digs southward along the West Coast. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop this weekend in this scenario and allow some of the high and mid level moisture from the remains of Marty in the eastern Pacific to head toward the forecast area.
502 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2015 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE DRY AND LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 59 73 61 / 70 80 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 58 77 59 / 90 80 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 58 75 59 / 90 80 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 58 73 56 / 100 70 60 30 NC.
SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF THAT RANGE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON VALLEYS. BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGH END OF THE RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT EXPOSED RIDGES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UNUSUALLY COLD FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS LIMITED THUS THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE AN OFFSHORE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
As the mean upper low moves further to the southeast, any sustained wind today through early sunday will be tied closely to the ageostrophic circulation around the deformation zone aloft.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THERE UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT MOVES AWAY. SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO START TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TIME TODAY. MAINTAINING THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WHEN THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTS NORTH- NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE MIDSOUTH. TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY PEAK OF SUN WILL BE BRIEF. AND A CONSTANT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT LIKELY POPS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO SUNDAY.
Upstream mid-level trough was entering the Idaho area this morning, lifting a secondary broad trough northeastward into the western high plains later today. Dense cloud cover and possible showers around today will keep highs cool over north central KS in the lower 60s. Lows tonight depend on the extent of cloud cover with the lower 40s over east central areas, while north central KS hovers in the middle 40s. Sunday, An upper low over central CA will slowly dig southeast into southern CA. Minor upper level troughs that round the CA upper low will lift northeast into the central plains.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
952 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OUR AREA.
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT FOR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE HIGHER RIDGES. POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY PEAK OF SUN WILL BE BRIEF. AND A CONSTANT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT LIKELY POPS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN GFS TEMPS AND MORE IN LINE WITH NAM FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS NE TO E WINDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS MOST AREAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH HIGHS TODAY ANOTHER THREE TO FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
610 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IS LIFTING MOIST AIR OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE WILL COME UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAIN IS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A SECOND CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED INTO OREGON AND CONTINUES SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A BIT DRIER AND WARMER TOMORROW IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
Our current forecasts for winds are towards the higher end of guidance and some of the observed winds today may peak just shy of advisory criteria and current forecasts. JW 12Z TAFS: Low pressure sagging south through the region will bring a threat for showers to most terminals through 17z.
611 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LATEST OBS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE MID ATLC COAST WITH A WEAK H100-H70 CYCLONE PARKED NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER GENERATING A DEEP WRLY FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. THOUGH A DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H60 LYR SHOULD TRAP THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. WHILE THE LOW PWAT AIR WOULD EVAPORATE ANY SHRAS THAT MIGHT (UNLIKELY) PUNCH THROUGH SAID INVERSION.
IT WILL BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US.
A longwave trough was situated across the western United States this morning. Another deep upper level trough was situated over the southeastern United States.
SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO START TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TIME TODAY. MAINTAINING THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WHEN THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTS NORTH- NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WITH PROXIMITY TO UPSTREAM SIDE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY BUT ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW LOOKING AT THE GFS/ECM/GEM.
408 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A vigorous low pressure system will bring cooler weather, windy conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND UP INTO MONTANA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXTEND FARTHER UP IN TO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE SECOND REINFORCING TROUGH MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH CUT BANK. THIS LAYER IS JUST BELOW FREEZING AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER.
923 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER COLORADO. SCATTERED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH ISOLD POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
415 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A 500 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LONE STAR STATE.
The upper low continues to sit over the Gulf Coast this morning. This low will slowly begin to edge eastward today into tomorrow, with the center situated over the Atlantic coastline by the end of the short term period. Another wave pivoting around this upper low will lead to renewed rain chances through the day today. Some of the high res guidance suggests there could be numerous showers across the entire region today, so this will be something to watch as pops may need to be raised in the west this afternoon. As the upper low shifts eastward tonight, this fetch will begin to shift to the south and eventually pivot out of central KY. Highs on Sunday should be significantly warmer in the lower to possibly mid 70s.
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES OVER THE AREA AND OVERRIDE A STABLE BUT SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY THIS MORNING WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. ALSO EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO OBSERVED TIDAL DEPARTURES AT FERNANDINA BEACH AND MAYPORT THIS MORNING AROUND 0. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS BASIN REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL WITH RIVER GAGES FROM DOWNTOWN JAX TO THE SHANDS BRIDGE AND PALATKA EXPECTED TO FLIRT BETWEEN ACTION STAGE AND MINOR FLOODING LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL. IFR CIGS PREVAILING WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS ROTATES NORTHWARD.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE TROF IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WY/SOUTH CENTRAL MT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MT. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST WY. THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.