Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Quiet weather continues across the area through the period as high pressure remains dominant. Light easterly winds and a dry airmass under this high will result in mainly clear skies and mild daytime inland highs around 70 today and into the lower 70s for Tuesday. However, closer to the lake onshore winds will keep conditions a couple of degrees cooler both days.
220 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A mid/upper ridge axis stretched from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south and southwestward across the Central Plains and into the Southern Plains.
-Much cooler air arrives late this week with frost looking possible this weekend. Forecast Discussion: Mid-level analysis shows high pressure remaining over the region with a trough moving over the northern High Plains. Surface maps reveal an area of low pressure in northern South Dakota and a trailing cold front into western Nebraska. That front will eventually move through northeastern Kansas by midweek as the aforementioned mid-level trough continues eastward through the Midwest.
The lower end probabilistic NBM 10th %ile and colder METMOS have performed the best and will continue to be followed. Lacy (Tonight through Monday) The omega blocking pattern that has been in place for several days is starting to break down and become more progressive.
Scattered showers are expected to expand into the local forecast area late this afternoon through tonight as an upper low pushes into the northern Plains.
318 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consist of two upper level lows, one centered over Montana and the other over the mid- Atlantic associated with the remnants of Ian. Lows tonight will range from the 40s in the interior to the 50s over the west where mixing in the low levels and cloud cover will limit cooling. The synoptic pattern early in the forecast period across the CONUS will consist of lingering high pressure over the Great Lakes Region and northeast U. , areas of low pressure over the Carolinas and Dakotas, and strong ridge amplification over the West Coast.
Tonight through Tuesday night Upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the west coast will slowly build into Nevada keeping the Silver State under NW flow pattern aloft. Temperatures will be above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 70s to low 80s, while overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s.
154 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 VFR conditions are expected across the area through the forecast period as high pressure settles over the state. Though winds will be light throughout the forecast, the rest of today they will be predominately out of the northeast, going light and variable tonight under the center of the high, before re-emerging from the northwest Tuesday on the backside of the high. Resident environment marked by deep layer stability held within a very dry airmass today, as mid level northerly flow lingers atop an extensive area of high pressure. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper level trough is centered over the northern Rocky Mountains/Northern Plains and extends south to Arizona and New Mexico. High temperatures today are expected to be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as 850 mb temperatures cool slightly. Low temperatures for tonight will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough will move over the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday and the trough will extend southwestward over New Mexico and Arizona. This trough will increase lift over the area and will result in increased chances of showers and thunderstorms from Southeast New Mexico south to the Rio Grande on Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday night) As of the latest surface observations, we continue to watch the main H500 low pressure system tracking east across Montana with an extending trough southwest into northern New Mexico. Near the surface, a cold front as of early this afternoon continues to move south it approaches a line from Denver, CO to North Platte, NE. Better rain chances will come during the overnight period for the NW Panhandles as the main cold front moves southeast into the region. With some help from the secondary UL low pressure system over the AZ/NM stateline by tomorrow morning, this should help enhance vertical lift for precipitation.
1150 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue throughout the week as high pressure pushes in.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) The upper-level ridge that has kept the area high and dry holds out for one more day. This southern trough will result in increasing cloud cover across the entire area. Even though not everyone will benefit from rain, the cooler temperatures are appreciated.
1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The blocking pattern that has been in place for the past few days will begin to break down today.
1151 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The upper level low pressure system that has plagued our region with inclement weather was located over central/eastern MT, with a trough axis trailing southwest through western WY, northwest CO and northern UT. The MT upper level low will slowly progress to the southeast today, with its trailing trough and wind shift moving through the CWA.
240 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 An upper low centered over east-central Montana will move southeastward into South Dakota this evening into Tuesday. For this afternoon into this evening, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are likely mainly over southeast MT as a disturbance rotates around the upper low. Over south central MT and north central WY, upper ridging will then slide eastward into the area and produce drier conditions tonight. Upper ridging will dominate the weather for much of the area Tuesday with dry and warmer conditions. There is a slight chance of a shower over southern Carter County Tuesday as another disturbance moves southeastward over the area on the western side of the upper low. By Tuesday night, the upper low will have moved far enough away from the region that the entire area will be dry.
At the surface, high pressure stretches from southern Ontario southwestward into eastern Iowa. Discussion: Ridging aloft continues to bring quiet weather to the region. Low temperatures forecast to be in the mid 40s overnight with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will become more southerly tomorrow at 5 to 10 MPH so do not expect there to be any fire weather concerns despite the low relative humidities.
This is based on dewpoints currently in the lower 40s across the area and increasing coverage of upper level clouds.
Morning lows falling into the low to mid-60s. Poor to hazardous boating conditions developing tonight behind a dry cold front, as northerly winds increase to around 15-20kts, mainly for the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters.
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Continued ridging aloft will result in warm afternoon temperatures and cool to mild nights in the short term.
636 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A mid/upper ridge axis stretched from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south and southwestward across the Central Plains and into the Southern Plains.
445 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Most recent radar and observations show cold frontal boundary north/south oriented through central SD. Chances for showers will persist in the region through Tuesday as the upper trough axis, which currently sits over eastern Montana and Wyoming, will slowly move through the northern plains today and Tuesday. Chances for precipitation tapers off later Tuesday as the upper low fill and shifts east of the forecast area.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level ridging pattern will dominate the weather pattern for the region for another day. Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue overnight and into Tuesday, with daytime highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 50s. We'll begin to see the starting impacts of the upper-level trough moving eastward towards the region tomorrow, with increasing cloud cover mainly in northwestern Oklahoma.
The upper level low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota border. Through this evening the upper low will shift east and with cold temperatures aloft, weak CAPE should develop and allow for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southwest and south central. Scattered showers should also continue in the southeast through the evening, until the WCB stream of moisture shifts east with the upper low.
629 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper level trough is centered over the northern Rocky Mountains/Northern Plains and extends south to Arizona and New Mexico. High temperatures today are expected to be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as 850 mb temperatures cool slightly. Low temperatures for tonight will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough will move over the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday and the trough will extend southwestward over New Mexico and Arizona. This trough will increase lift over the area and will result in increased chances of showers and thunderstorms from Southeast New Mexico south to the Rio Grande on Tuesday.
Reimer An upper low centered over east-central Montana will move southeastward into South Dakota this evening into Tuesday. For this afternoon into this evening, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are likely mainly over southeast MT as a disturbance rotates around the upper low. Over south central MT and north central WY, upper ridging will then slide eastward into the area and produce drier conditions tonight. Upper ridging will dominate the weather for much of the area Tuesday with dry and warmer conditions. There is a slight chance of a shower over southern Carter County Tuesday as another disturbance moves southeastward over the area on the western side of the upper low. By Tuesday night, the upper low will have moved far enough away from the region that the entire area will be dry.
A closed low becomes more defined over the Mid Atlantic States while the longwave ridge west of us moves further east, extending from over Louisiana north to over the Chicagoland area. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with highs from the upper 70s far north and in the higher terrain east to the lower 80s elsewhere.
(Rest of tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure at the surface promoting clear conditions and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS maintaining northwesterly flow.
611 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue throughout the week as high pressure moves in accompanied by a slow warming trend.
An upper level low will continue to slide east through the Northern Plains with a few weak disturbances moving around its periphery during the short term forecast. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area this evening. Decreasing cloudiness is then expect tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will start out from a southerly direction this afternoon shifting to the northwest behind the cold front by tonight. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low 70s.
622 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level ridging pattern will dominate the weather pattern for the region for another day. Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue overnight and into Tuesday, with daytime highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 50s. We'll begin to see the starting impacts of the upper-level trough moving eastward towards the region tomorrow, with increasing cloud cover mainly in northwestern Oklahoma.
637 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure regime will keep things quiet through Tuesday night. Upper ridging with H5 heights currently near 585 dm is forecast to weaken some over the next 36 hours.
450 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The stubborn upper low that has impacted the area since late last week is now centered across eastern Montana, with the forecast area under general trailing troughiness. Otherwise, today will be drier for most, with temperatures a bit cooler east of the Divide and warmer by a few degrees west. Tuesday will be a pleasant fall day with seasonal temperatures as ridging begins to move in.
401 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Short term forecast challenges are shower potential as upper low pinwheels across the northern plains over the next 24 to 36 hours. As the upper low wobbles to the SE overnight into Tuesday it will be centered over SD tomorrow with the best potential for heavier rainfall amounts and thunder to our south. Highs tomorrow a bit cooler than today with mid to upper 60s for most areas with a few 70s possible in the southern valley with lows tomorrow night in the upper 40s as skies clear behind the departing upper low. A noteworthy, negatively tilted mid/upper trough drops out of MB/ON into the Great Lakes region around Wed-Thu timeframe.
848 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Temperatures were adjusted this evening across the I-75 corridor in SW Georgia as a shallow cloud deck this afternoon and evening has kept temperatures cooler there than observations so far tonight. Dry northwest flow aloft will continue for the next 7 days, as an upper trough axis remains close to the U.
(This evening through Tuesday) The main feature for the short term will be an upper level low that stalls out off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This is creating some persistent cloud cover over south and eastern Georgia which will likely limit high temps today to the low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s with some 40s across the higher elevations of NE Georgia.
715 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry northwest flow aloft will continue for the next 7 days, as an upper trough axis remains close to the U.
507 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 An upper level low will continue to slide east through the Northern Plains with a few weak disturbances moving around its periphery during the short term forecast. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area this evening. Decreasing cloudiness is then expect tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will start out from a southerly direction this afternoon shifting to the northwest behind the cold front by tonight. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low 70s.
714 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue throughout the week as high pressure moves in accompanied by a slow warming trend.
958 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 An upper low will slowly drift east across the Mid-Atlantic States to the Atlantic Ocean through Tuesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds. Temperatures will slowly warm through late in the week, before a dry cold front ushers in colder temperatures for this weekend. An upper-low will meander just south of the Mid- Atlantic region with the low pressure center remaining NE of the western Carolinas and NE GA through the near term fcst period. Taller ridgetops have the potential to see some patchy frost with lows expected to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Highs will be a tad warmer Tuesday compared to today, but still remaining around 2-5 degrees below climo.
High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the week.
Very persistent upper level ridging along the West Coast will keep unusually warm and dry conditions over the region through the weekend.
559 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Really impressive H2O imagery over the CONUS showing a trough- ridge-trough pattern from the East Coast over to the western coast. Ian is making up the trof running up the New England coastline while back West there is a double barrel low pattern. The northern closed low that has been responsible for our active weather is finally getting picked up by the northernly flow and crawling eastward through the Northern High Plains.
932 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Issued 932 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022) Expect a cool night with calm winds across much of the area as high pressure continue to dominate our local weather pattern. Anderson (Issued 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: Low level anticyclonic flow and mid level ridging will continue to keep things quiet into Tuesday night.
Upper level high pressure to the west will continue to build and push out cloud in the eastern border region of the forecast area. Wind remains light under the high.
310 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The stubborn upper low that has impacted the area since late last week is now centered across eastern Montana, with the forecast area under general trailing troughiness. Otherwise, today will be drier for most, with temperatures a bit cooler east of the Divide and warmer by a few degrees west. Tuesday will be a pleasant fall day with seasonal temperatures as ridging begins to move in.
845 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis still features an upper level trough axis over the Eastern United States with the remnants of Ian near the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis remains entrenched over portions of the Southern/Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley.
713 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue throughout the week as high pressure moves in accompanied by a slow warming trend.
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The upper level low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota border. Through this evening the upper low will shift east and with cold temperatures aloft, weak CAPE should develop and allow for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southwest and south central. Scattered showers should also continue in the southeast through the evening, until the WCB stream of moisture shifts east with the upper low.
Water vapor imagery shows the cold front draped over central Florida. This cold front will increase moisture tonight and tomorrow.
Upper low continues to shift Ewd during the day, with high confidence in the associated trof axis being centered over the Upper Midwest by 12z tomorrow.
Skies will continue to be mostly sunny under the influence of an upper level ridge, although we may see a few more clouds today as an upper level low slowly drifts southeast through Arizona. Tonight, continued mostly clear skies, and lows will range from the lower 50s to near 60.
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A mid/upper ridge axis stretched from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south and southwestward across the Central Plains and into the Southern Plains.
225 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A few isolated showers are possible over eastern areas through the morning hours, as the upper low that has brought rain and thunderstorms to the area over the last several days finally shifts east into the Dakotas.
This will keep the corridor of southerly flow in place in the low levels across the area today as well as decent mid level frontal forcing. As the upper level low pressure moves into NE and south central SD late this afternoon and evening a small axis of instability is expected to develop. The highest CAPE in any of the models pushes about 1000 J/kg with the average a little closer to 500 J/kg. While this is not overly supportive of severe weather there is a weak boundary moving into central SD, the low level wind field appears fairly light and the LFC's are fairly low so maybe a few concerns for funnels or brief landspouts. By tonight the upper level low will drift further southeast and take the better chances for rainfall with it.
1047 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level ridging pattern will dominate the weather pattern for the region for another day. Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue overnight and into Tuesday, with daytime highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 50s. We'll begin to see the starting impacts of the upper-level trough moving eastward towards the region tomorrow, with increasing cloud cover mainly in northwestern Oklahoma.
301 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Discussion/Marine High pressure producing mostly clear skies and calm winds early this morning is resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions.
434 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Isolated showers are possible in the eastern ridges today, followed by a couple days of dry weather with near-average temperatures under high pressure.
Mid/upper level ridging will be the dominant weather feature for interior NorCal through the remainder of the week resulting in a continuation of the dry weather pattern with warm temperatures.
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will keep a lid on things locally. However, northeast winds funneling down the east side of the Appalachians may keep things a bit cooler over the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Farther west, highs will be in the lower 80s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep layered high pressure centered right across the Great Lakes early this morning. Band of mid and upper level moisture running along northern extent of mid level ridge bringing some high clouds to mainly eastern upper Michigan. High pressure expected to remain in control of our weather through at least tonight, maintaining the dry conditions and bringing with it increasingly mild temperatures to the northern Great Lakes. Otherwise, as mentioned above, deep layer high pressure will continue to result in dry conditions across the Northwoods.
1048 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Really impressive H2O imagery over the CONUS showing a trough- ridge-trough pattern from the East Coast over to the western coast. Ian is making up the trof running up the New England coastline while back West there is a double barrel low pattern. The northern closed low that has been responsible for our active weather is finally getting picked up by the northernly flow and crawling eastward through the Northern High Plains.
A persistent low pressure off the east coast has begun to lift north this morning, with an area of high pressure filling in behind the low pressure area. The low pressure will keep the keys in a northerly wind regime today, with winds prevailing from the northeast to the north. Daytime high temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s.
Temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 60s across much of the area, with the typical cooler spots down into the upper 50s. Lows are expected to fall into the middle to upper 50s across all but the coastal areas, and only about a degree or two warmer than last night.
A few high clouds were noted early this morning across the southern half of the state on the southwestern periphery of a retrograding upper trough. Look for highs today to top out around 80 F for most with lows tonight dropping to near 50 F near and north of Highway 82, middle 50s F along I-20, and near 60 F for those along the Highway 84 corridor.
This lends to general persistence of the local environment, as an encroaching upper ridge axis takes an increasing influence atop pervasive high pressure. The underlying climb in the upper height field affords a modest response within the low to mid level thermal profile. Mid level moisture advection working across the ridge periphery as flow backs toward the west- southwest above 700 mb may introduce some thicker high based cloud at times over central lower mi, but generally favor a high degree of insolation today given the high magnitude dry layer entrenched beneath.
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Rest of tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure at the surface promoting clear conditions and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS maintaining northwesterly flow.