Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER LOW MOVES MORE NORTHWARD THAN EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS INITIAL BAND TO MOVE THROUGH.
WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST.
WV IMAGERY INDICATES CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA AS OF 14/10Z. WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH IS SOUTHERN-MOST LATITUDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POSITIONED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER.
431 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUN. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS IF FRONT STALLS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MINIMUMS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
Upper low continues to move north out of the Arklatex this evening.
00Z MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS, A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP WITH WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASING DIURNALLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
458 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS MORNING AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES WITH WIND SHIFT THE BEST INDICATOR ATTM.
WHICH IS ALSO BEING FORCED BY A SFC WARM FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. PRECIP THEN TURNS TO MAINLY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE N-NW WIND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT.
144 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 50 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM WEST INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECT CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S.
151 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THEN BACK SOUTH AS COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
THEN THE MUCH WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIXING LAYER DEW POINTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RHS FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO NORTH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. INCREASING INTO MON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AS A SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST. RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT.
1234 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 DRY AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN APPROACHING 80 OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 5-7C OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MODEST LEE TROFFING WILL SET UP OVER FAR ERN WY SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY CREATING A BIT OF AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO WINDS OVER THE PLAINS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS.
316 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A SPLIT FLOW BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE CUTOFF WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGHING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL HELP TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MIXING INCREASES LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A DEEP RIDGE COMPLEX EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TESTAMENT TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CELL.
AND SUNDAY A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND WENT MUCH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
AND SUNDAY A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND WENT MUCH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
A DEPRESSION/TROF ON THE TROPOPAUSE WAS OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS THE WRN USA RIDGE EXPANDS E AND OVERTAKES THE REGION. TODAY: AN EXPANSIVE ARC OF CIRROSTRATUS RESIDES WITHIN THE UPPER TROF. AS THE TROF MOVES SE. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA.
234 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AT TIMES.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE SPECIFICS OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
353 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN INTO MID MORNING AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SWING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTO EASTERN CANADA SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE RIDGES. COOLER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND RIDGES IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EASTERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY.
06Z NAM/00Z ECMWF KEEP THE COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE SITS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.
THEN WE WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AREA DRIES OUT AS RIDGING AND GENRALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
403 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. WILL KEEP POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS IN THE SATURATED AIRMASS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
High temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday, generally in the 60s to near 70 degrees area-wide, still pretty close to normal for this time of year.
400 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND A COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE GULF COAST. INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SO HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
417 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TOUGH APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AND RAPIDLY BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT NEAR KLBB-KSPS-KOKC LINE. 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH SO FAR) WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
321 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A cold front currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly improving visibilities. Despite FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only slightly cooler. High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s.
250 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KCOU WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE DEVELOPING GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARMER BL AIR WHICH COUPLED WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL DRYING FAVORABLE FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ A SPLIT FLOW BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE CUTOFF WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGHING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL HELP TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL SCOUR OUT THROUGH MIDDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERMAL TROUGH AT H9-H85 WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY AND PROHIBIT MAX TEMPS FM DIFFERING TOO MUCH FM CURRENT READINGS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CA THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. WITH UPPER ENERGY ATOP THE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. HIGH COVERS THE NRN PLAINS WITH DEEPENING LEE TROF OVER MT/WY. THERMAL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE SFC TROF INTO FAR ERN WY/FAR WRN SD AND ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S FOR ALL BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE BLKHLS. TIGHT PRES GRADS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S/SW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. SFC TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING EVEN WARMER TEMPS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WYOMING. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CREATING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT.
DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL SPELL A PLEASANTLY MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SOME LIGHT WSR ECHOES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES TODAY.
Showers will start to dissipate from the north later this morning, as additional dry air advects in and the upper low across Arkansas becomes sheared out. Temperatures today should warm into the low to perhaps mid 60s in many locations, though readings will be dependent on how quickly rain and cloud cover dissipate.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TOUGH APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AND RAPIDLY BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT NEAR KLBB-KSPS-KOKC LINE. 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH SO FAR) WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JET STREAK IS POSITIONED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ASSOCD TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS THE EASTERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THE LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WHILE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF UNDER THE DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW. MODEST RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF SUNDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL VORT MAXES WERE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN/DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE THE MOST LIKELY PTYPES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN IRON COUNTY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL BE A STIFF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE MN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN UP IN SPEED TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISSUE SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO TEMPS IS THE COLD FRONT TIMING. GFS MODEL REMAINS THE FASTEST IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THRU SUN AFTN-EVE.
249 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES. HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. WENT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN CASE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY. ESPECIALLY IN THE RACINE AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COOLER TEMPS UNDER THOSE WINDS.
A WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR LOCAL AREA BEHIND THIS LOW. ALOFT A TROUGH STILL REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE PLAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS PINCHING OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER WYOMING MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
533 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE TODAY WITH THE HIGH OVER THE STATE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE WARMEST DAY FOR A WHILE TOMORROW. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT AND HOLD OFF ANY FOG FORMATION THUS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE FOR THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LATEST SURGE OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SE AND OUT OF THE AREA AND THE COOLER AIR OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD. LEE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE WY AND RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE MTNS BUT NOT LOOKING TOO STRONG.
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC WILL BREAK DOWN AS DEEP W/NW FLOW PUSHES A NEW COLD FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE THRU CENTRAL FL. FRESHENING FROM THE N/NW ARND 20KTS OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT BARRELS THROUGH CENTRAL FL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS NEAR INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDES THROUGH MID MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING.
1049 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
440 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2015 (Today and Tonight) A weak upper low has dropped south from roughly the Arizona/New Mexico border to along the Sonora/Chihuahua border in adjacent northern Mexico. This low will track south-southwest across northern Mexico today, then turn more to the west toward the Gulf of California by late tonight. This to occur as an upper ridge over the western U. Temperatures today will be cooler area wide compared to yesterday, most notably across our southern counties. Going with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.
617 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
415 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
Steady to even slightly rising temperatures are expected tonight as southerly flow returns, cloud cover increases, and warmer temperatures build in aloft, resulting in lows in the teens to lower 20s early in the night. Friday will be the warmest in the foreseeable future even despite the passage of a weak cold front during the early afternoon, due to continually rising 925 hPa temperatures and decent mixing during the daylight hours.
WV imagery shows the upper trough well SW of KELP, but still sending -SHRA across the region, mainly south of the Pecos. This is all due to lift associated with an upper level low dropping south into northern Mexico. This low will not affect weather farther east because it will get caught under a west coast ridge and retrograde back west away from the area.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF 2 SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
424 AM MST THU FEB 12 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVER OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE KS/CO BORDER THEN TURN INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH BACK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
/ISSUED 254 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015/ AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA SOUTH OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA AS OF 2 AM. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN SONORA TODAY AND THEN WEST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
334 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2015 High pressure over the western U. High pressure ridge over the west coast will keep conditions dry through the coming weekend. Warm airmass under the ridge will keep daytime highs well above normal and on the order of 5 to 15 degrees above normal for mid February. ridge on Friday. The high pressure ridge re-amplifies just off the west coast over the weekend bringing dry conditions and mainly fair skies with daytime highs warming slightly. Models indicate continued high cloudiness spilling over the ridge through the weekend so not expecting extensive fog at this time.
558 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD NORTHERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TIMING OF COLD FRONT ON SAT REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HIGHS ON TUE COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA.
416 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SONORA AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE.
THE SOUTH CENTRAL FROM BISMARCK TO LINTON HAS BEEN A BIT WARMER. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST FRIDAY.
WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN TO THE LAKE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 415 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015/ STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE APPALACHIANS BACK THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
406 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE TODAY WITH THE HIGH OVER THE STATE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE WARMEST DAY FOR A WHILE TOMORROW. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.