Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
328 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Tonight, low level moisture and instability axis extends roughly sw- ne in vicinity of the highway 1 corridor. With the core of the mid/upper level anti-cyclone covering the northern piedmont and foothills, subsidence over our northern counties will likely inhibit any convective development. Otherwise, expect clear-partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 70s. Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low- mid 70s.
Aloft, troughing is found across the Eastern Seaboard, with ridging aligned from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and into the southern Plains. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 60s.
Warm southerly flow around the west side of high pressure over the Appalachians, plus slowly rising heights, will give us temperatures a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper 80s in IN/KY to the lower 90s in IL/MO. With moisture returning to the area behind the aforementioned high, ahead of low pressure crossing Oklahoma, and beneath a weakness in an upper ridge, a few showers and storms could work their way into SEMO after midnight tonight. Lapse rates will be fairly weak but strong to severe storms will still be possible in conjunction with low pressure over Missouri and a warm front reaching southeastward to Alabama.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
525 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as the western CONUS ridge remains mainly flat. Deep Canadian upper trough continues to shift slowly east. Much cooler day expected today, with most places seeing 70s for highs, 50s and 60s in the Black Hills. Much warmer conds expected Fri with temps well into the 90s and lower 100s, supporting the warmest day in the period.
With the southwest wind ~ 5 mph, upper 70s to near 80 will likely be the low this morning. Not much relief expected as high pressure aloft expands eastward, likely to be centered over our region Wednesday.
Good news is in store for west Texas and southeast New Mexico beginning Wednesday through the weekend as the strong upper level ridge centered over west Texas will slowly drift northward into north Texas. Some Heat Advisories will still likely be needed Wednesday across portions of the forecast area but that could be the last day that they will be needed as temperatures will continue to cool slightly away from the ridge as easterly flow aloft develops.
A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week, bringing increasing warmth and humidity. Clear skies and efficient radiational cooling should result in another cool night tonight, with readings similar to this morning or even cooler in spots.
930 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will persist through early Wednesday.
/issued 438 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Not much relief expected today as high pressure remains firmly in control across Deep South Texas, although, as the southern edge of the ridge weakens slightly, temperatures should begin to cool off by a degree or two each afternoon. Low pressure deepens across the Plains today into Wednesday, strengthening the pressure gradient and increasing southeasterly winds through the short term period.
With broad upper level troughing over the region, we will remain in cyclonic flow aloft through much of today. This will mean cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s and a slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm across the southwest this afternoon. The upper ridge centered off the west coast nudges a big closer tonight and any isolated showers will diminish quickly with the loss of heating.
High pressure will allow for drier, warmer conditions across the area through mid-week with Wednesday likely being the warmest day of the week.
1036 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A weak cold front slides farther off the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. High pressure then builds into the region through the middle of the week, and then slides offshore later in the week. Late this morning, an upper trough was located just off the Mid Atlc coast. At the surface, a weak cold front was also just off the coast. Temps were in the lower to mid 80s, with NNE winds over the area.
Still running rather warm with high temperatures peaking around 5 degrees warmer than average for the day.
There really doesn't appear to be any substantial upper level support, but models want to continue to develop a few showers north of the front in the cooler air, and with continued daytime heating, thunderstorm chances increase especially within the frontal corridor, and especially across Iowa.
The stratus cloud deck across SD should move south with the cold front and mix out across Nebraska this afternoon. The short term model blend was used for highs in the lower 80s Wednesday and tonight's lows uses a blend of the guidance and the short term model blend. The ongoing showers and thunderstorms across SD and nrn Nebraska are associated with deep moisture aloft and a cold front undercutting this moisture.
A low pressure system currently positioned just east of the OK panhandle continues to march eastward along the KS/OK border. The low is expected to turn toward the north and east tomorrow morning as it approaches Wichita and begin moving toward the Kansas City area by afternoon. The low sets up just southwest of Kansas City with a warm front extending from the KC metro north to the MO/IA border around Unionville. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will make working outdoors quite unpleasant. This lowers confidence in storm development; however, the cold front making its way south could provide enough lift to break the CAP.
629 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
Within this flow, a trough will move from near the Mississippi River to near the Ohio River on Wednesday. At that point, the flow over the northern CONUS becomes zonal and high pressure remains over much of the southern CONUS.
This will again result in a day on dangerous heat stress conditions much of the CWA, as dew points in the low to mid 70s combine with highs topping out in the middle 90s, resulting in heat index readings this afternoon from near 105 to 110. An upper trough makes its way eastward, the weakly northwesterly flow aloft shifts east as well, and a mid/upper ridge begins to build in. Models continue to show a weak wave/vort over the southeast, representing if nothing else a weakness in the eastern side of the ridging. That current weakness in the mid/upper level ridging is in concert with a drop of the 850 mb temps a degree or two through the remains of the week.
Warm southerly flow around the west side of high pressure over the Appalachians, plus slowly rising heights, will give us temperatures a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Afternoon highs will genrally range from the upper 80s in IN/KY to the lower 90s in IL/MO. With moisture returning to the area behind the aforementioned high, ahead of low pressure crossing Oklahoma, and beneath a weakness in an upper ridge, a few showers and storms could work their way into SEMO after midnight tonight. Lapse rates will be fairly weak but strong to severe storms will still be possible in conjunction with low pressure over Missouri and a warm front reaching southeastward to Alabama.
07Z water vapor showed a closed low over Saskatchewan with a broad cyclonic pattern over the north plains. Meanwhile upper ridging over NM had been displaced further south along the Rio Grand valley. Otherwise the synoptic pattern favored southerly low level flow with low pressure over west TX and ridging along the MS river valley. The high dewpoints and highs in the middle 90s is expected to create heat indices around 105 for east central KS. Showers and cloud cover lingering through a good portion of the day Wednesday is expected to help keep temps cooler as high pressure gradually build into the central plains. Unfortunately there does not appear to be much of a push of dry air with the high, so the humidity is likely to remain with us even though highs should remain in the 80s.
Temperatures will climb into the low 90s today and with this slightly drier air (upper 60s dew points) it will almost be bearable.
A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week, bringing increasing warmth and humidity. Radiational cooling should result in the coolest night we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the lower 50s in the coolest valleys of the north (before some stratuco develops over parts of the NW mtns) and to the lower 60s across the southeast counties.
Will add a slight chance of a shower in the Lake of the Woods area late afternoon with cyclonic flow aloft and models suggesting a weak trough or slight wind shift.
The ridge remains entrenched over the area and will see little change from yesterday indicating that we should see temperatures this afternoon be fairly close to yesterday. Jordan Upper level high will begin to weaken and shift slightly eastward starting Wednesday.
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Much cooler conditions over the eastern plains today behind a cold front with max temps generally in the lower to mid 70s.
623 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will persist through early Wednesday.
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Surface cold front has worked towards central Iowa with strato- cumulus field developing behind the front.
Hot/dry SW flow at the lower/mid levels is helping to keep things quiet through this package. Center of the strong 500mb ridge near El Paso will very slightly weaken as it slowly moves eastward into north Texas during this time period.
A cold front was draped across NE KS. Surface dewpoint temperatures in the low 70's were observed ahead of the dryline and in the low 50's across far western OK. The upper wave will pass tonight and drive the cold front into NW OKlahoma Wednesday morning. Thanks to the passage of the front, maximum temperatures will be cooler over NW OK tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Mid/upper ridge holding firm over the Great Lakes through the bulk of tomorrow and ensuring quiet weather. Ridge axis is currently passing our area and winds will continue to veer and strengthen into the overnight hours. With a warmer start this evening, some high clouds, and a steady southerly wind. anticipate lows several degrees warmer than last night.
The primary factor today will be winds as gusty south to southeast winds will affect all sites with CRP being the highest, possibly reaching 30 knots. Although an elongated ridge aloft remains in place over the Lone Star State today, this axis is already drifting north of our region as confirmed by regional RAOBs now sampling mostly easterly mid-level winds. Thicknesses are progged to decline a touch area wide today, but cooler highs will be most common along our coastal counties thanks to a stronger sea breeze with SE winds this afternoon of 20 to 25 mph. In addition to a slight uptick in PWATs by Wednesday under deeper easterly flow, temporary weakening of the upper high and lower thicknesses should bring heat indices below our Heat Advisory threshold for most areas.
Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as the western CONUS ridge remains mainly flat. Deep Canadian upper trough continues to shift slowly east. Much cooler day expected today, with most places seeing 70s for highs, 50s and 60s in the Black Hills. Much warmer conds expected Fri with temps well into the 90s and lower 100s, supporting the warmest day in the period.
Arthur Will continue to see isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the MT/WY and MT/Dakotas state lines today as weak energy rotates around the upper low and interacts with the 700mb front. Ridge begins to build in from the southwest along with the flow aloft backing to the west. This will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
The morning high based showers have dissipated and the storm focus for the afternoon is well to our west on the High Plains. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
Looking like a drier and warmer day based on 700 mb temperatures and low and mid level moisture profiles. Mostly dry with warmer temperatures as the airmass modifies.
Would not have been worth an update in and of itself but also massaged afternoon highs just slightly to account for some added heating over portions of the area, making some locations just a tad warmer for afternoon highs than originally expected. Aloft, troughing is found across the Eastern Seaboard, with ridging aligned from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and into the southern Plains. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 60s.
Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue through much of the day Wednesday.
Initially, storm development should be discreet supercells given the high CAPE values and 30 knots of deep layer shear with storms becoming more organized with time into the early evening hours. Wednesday will be cooler with highs generally in the 80s to around 90 with low level northeasterly winds. The latter part of the week will see an upper ridge building from the Mid Atlantic and Southeast States into the central and southern High Plains while the stronger upper level westerlies are shunted farther north. This will bring a return to warmer temperatures across western Kansas with highs back up around or even a few degrees above the 100 degree mark.
434 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 An upper level low pressure system over New Hampshire this afternoon will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to the North Country through this evening. The low will move far enough east later tonight for precipitation to come to an end. High pressure then builds in across the area on Wednesday for a relatively dry day and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A cold front is crossing causing fairly heavy rain across northwest Wisconsin, but luckily it's on the move and it shouldn't be an issue for too many more hours.
258 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Short Term (Rest of today and Wednesday): A stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast US with high pressure building across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and South Florida. High pressure continues to build as we move into Wednesday with winds generally beginning to veer becoming northeasterly and easterly. Tomorrow, hot and humid conditions will continue with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices. Until, we can finally get under persistent easterly flow then the higher temps along the east coast will be able to subside.
Upper level pattern transitions from cyclonic flow as trof moves to the east to weak riding-zonal flow before stronger ridge builds over the southwestern US, bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
Guidance numbers show lows tonight near persistent; however, highs for Wednesday are a degree or two cooler than forecast highs, from previous runs. Continued Dry and Turning Cooler. The upper ridge will still be dominate over the region, and that will help maintain a dry forecast. The real forecast highlight though hinges on cooler temperatures at 850mb, and models remain consistent in that regard. So, the good news is West Central Texas will see a cooling trend; unfortunately, afternoon highs, through this weekend and into the first part of this coming work week, will still be warmer than usual mid July highs.
229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across southwestern WY this afternoon and is forecast to move across western Nebraska this evening and overnight. The higher chances near 40 percent will occur after midnight and mainly west of Highway 83. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern Plains into the sern U.
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure aloft will remain over NC through the end of the week. Aside from a few isolated light showers that may pop up across the Piedmont and drift to the southeast this afternoon, we are in a fair weather pattern now on the back side of the trough moving off the East Coast. Lows tonight should range from 65-70 NW-N into the lower 70s SE. Heat will continue to be the main wx story for Wednesday with afternoon high temps in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values a couple deg either side of 100. all thanks in part to a mid level ridge becoming settled over our area.
Latest vsbl satellite imagery shows low clouds developing amidst swrly low level winds, while patchy high clouds stream south around the eastern side of a large persistent ridge centered acrs W TX/N Mexico. With the southwest wind ~ 5 mph, upper 70s to near 80 will likely be the low this morning. Not much relief expected as high pressure aloft expands eastward, likely to be centered over our region Wednesday.
The subtropical ridge remains over the Southern Rockies into TX/OK with northwest flow aloft continuing across the Mid-MS Valley. High pressure is now over northern Ohio at this time. The high pressure will keep dry weather over the entire Mid-South for one more day. With the high now east of the region, winds will be from the southeast today which will allow temperatures to be a little warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Wednesday, a weak warm front will move into the region from the west.
But in the meanwhile, it looks like the ever so subtle shift of the low-level winds to the south along with the increases in speed have helped to keep heat index values over SETX at more managable levels this afternoon. As a point of reference, normals for this time of year range from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s along the coast. As the mid/upper level ridge axis works its way to our north, models are continuing to show some decent agreement in the development of an inverted trough around the southern Louisiana area.
317 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure has begun to settle in over the region behind the exiting frontal boundary that was the focus for rain last night into this morning. This high will be the dominant feature over the area tonight and Wednesday before getting pushed southward by a weak frontal boundary Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s, with highs on Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s.
Latest satellite images show a cloud-free sky over South Central Texas with temperatures ranging from the low to upper 90s most areas with 100 to 106 degrees over parts of the southeast, northern Hill Country and Del Rio as of 2 pm.
That dry air through a depth in the atmosphere, with just the tiniest of breezes, has mixed down to the surface this afternoon and dropped dew points into the low 60s and even a few 50s east of I-65.
I expect thunderstorms to continue to slide east this morning as there is just enough instability and shear along with the low level jet transporting plenty of moisture into the area and producing lift to aid in keeping the storms going. With the front to our southeast and a fair amount of cloud cover around, temperatures will be on the cooler side for most of the area, with highs only in the low 70s. Highs to rise into the low 80s.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed and will continue to develop today areawide from a combination of a weak upper low just to our northwest and outflow boundaries from earlier storms.
Upper level ridge of high pressure centered over Texas extends across much of the southeast U. At the surface, a weak/diffuse trough is positioned over the area. However, the presence of the weak trough, potential weak short wave energy aloft and greater instability could support isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern Midlands this afternoon and early evening. Expect high temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, so forecast highs are in the mid 90s, with some isolated upper 90s possible this afternoon. Wednesday and Wednesday night: Upper ridge remains over the region, with model soundings showing some mid-level capping still in place through the afternoon.
402 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure is situated east of the region.
A mid/upper level high pressure will remain in place and dominate our weather through tomorrow night. With the high pressure to our north, a more easterly flow will develop and bring in a slight increase in PWATs. With the moderate easterly wind flow tomorrow, temperatures should be a degree or two cooler across the Coastal Bend.
226 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A weak cold front slides farther off the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. High pressure then builds into the region through the middle of the week, and then slides offshore later in the week. Late this morning, an upper trough was located just off the Mid Atlc coast. At the surface, a weak cold front was also just off the coast. Temps were in the lower to mid 80s, with NNE winds over the area.
Our quiet weather continues across the area today as high pressure is in control at the surface and ridging aloft. Within this flow, a trough will move from near the Mississippi River to near the Ohio River on Wednesday. At that point, the flow over the northern CONUS becomes zonal and high pressure remains over much of the southern CONUS.
Meanwhile interior locations will see temperatures today to be similar to or slightly cooler compared to yesterday. Another upper level trough is forecast to develop near the West Coast by late week resulting in only minor day to day fluctuations in temperatures, especially near the coast.
315 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Still not a whole lot going on in the short term as high pressure remains in control. Tonight, another pleasant evening is expected as dewpoints are still on the lower side. This will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 60s from the central TN Valley northward and mid to upper 60s central TN Valley and southward. This uptick in moisture will allow for slight chance POPs across the high terrain and foothills of the eastern TN mountains, southwest NC, and into portions of southwest VA.
A weak upper low pinches from a departing mid-latitude trough and retrogrades southwestward over the local area on Wednesday. Height falls associated with this low will help support a greater thunderstorm coverage Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, with PoPs increasing to around 60-70% for much of the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain a few degrees cooler than the past few days thanks to the increased coverage in rain and clouds.
There is already an axis of 4500+ j/kg SBCAPE north of a warm front over NW Oklahoma with overall weak shear across sw Kansas. A synoptic cold front will dive south across the area following the convection tonight, probably covering the area gain with low stratus to start the early morning Wednesday. A cooler day is expected on Wednesday owing to the previous night's convective outflow and morning clouds that will need to be eroded by insolation.