Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This event is panning out to be on the higher end of forecast totals, and even above in many cases. A building ridge over the Plains will bring warmer temperatures midweek. By the end of the week another potent low pressure system will move into the Plains. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding placement of the low, and that will have an effect on temperatures and precip type.
Winds have also remained high as the clearing high pressure has yet to push down into the region. The progression will make it difficult for some of the higher totals to be realized, but the intensity of the snowfall rates is sufficient to maintain the forecast roughly as is with a general 2 to 5 total still expected when all is said and done. Following the departure of the current storm system, upper ridging over the western U.
Winds will become southwesterly this afternoon before a cold front drops south across the area tonight turning winds from the east. Highs today will range from the lowers 70s to near 90. For tonight, another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas.
303 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Dry weather this evening, but light precipitation chances return for Monday with a trough of low pressure. Western edge of lake effect clouds/snow showers is eroding across eastern Ohio as the mid-level trough axis departs. Overnight snow accumulation should be under an inch in most cases, although cannot rule out a bit more on the higher ridges in the far southeast CWA. A warming boundary layer will lead to a mix with and change to rain with time, although the ridges could hold on to snow for much of the day. QPF totals will remain light, with perhaps around an inch of snow accumulation in the ridges, and little elsewhere.
321 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 An area of low pressure moving through the Central Plains, and weakening as it moves east, will just skirt the Brainerd Lakes region with light snow late this afternoon through this evening. Otherwise, the Northland will just have cloud cover associated with the low. Weak high pressure will move in overnight, and there should be some clearing from the north late tonight. An upper trough will pass over the Northland Monday, which will help develop some cumulus and light snow/rain showers. A weak trough will likely set up along the North Shore, and convergence along the inland higher terrain could result in some light precipitation because of the moisture from Lake Superior.
107 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and light winds today. Temperatures however will remain cool with highs generally in the low 40s. Chances for light snow and rain will return later tonight through Monday night as a weak low pressure system moves through.
130 PM PDT Sun Apr 8 2018 A high pressure ridge will move over California on Monday, temporarily shifting surface winds offshore, shrinking the marine layer, and boosting temperatures.
From the larger scale models, the 12z deterministic GFS and Canadian guidance, along with the high resolution NAM-WRF Family and HRRR family of guidance are coincident with their solutions for light precipitation this afternoon. Weak high pressure will lose its grip on the area today, as s/wv mid level energy approaches from the NW.
As deformation wanes altogether, incoming trailing wave will likely spark a renewal of coverage over western portions of the state, becoming increasingly focused within inland troughing mainly west of US-23.
The surface cold front that cleared the region yesterday afternoon will lift northward once again overnight. The gradual lift along and north of the warm front, coupled with broad troughing increasing across the CWA overnight will increase rain chances across the region, generally after 06Z tonight.
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning with a closed low off the Pacific NW coast. A general/steadily reinforced upper-level troughing pattern will continue to linger across much of the eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming work week.
High pressure to our NE is moving farther away with light E/SE return flow over the area. Climb winds are light and variable in the lower levels w/ NW flow aloft 30-60KT for flight level. Overnight and early on Monday high pressure will filter back down from the N and our NE sfc winds will resume lifting MVFR cigs in the process with SKC into midweek.
611 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Light precipitation chances return for Monday with a trough of low pressure. Overnight snow accumulation should be under an inch in most cases, although cannot rule out a bit more on the higher ridges in the far southeast CWA. A warming boundary layer will lead to a mix with and change to rain with time, although the ridges could hold on to snow for much of the day. QPF totals will remain light, with perhaps around an inch of snow accumulation in the ridges, and little elsewhere.
250 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure is in control to start the short term. We anticipate cloud cover to scatter out a bit more by late afternoon into the evening as dry air tries to mix into the lowest levels. However, the next wave of low pressure riding a residual boundary to the south is expected to develop this evening and move off the Carolina coast.
Moisture will increase tonight in an easterly flow and ahead of low pressure south of the area. The low will be off the Southeast Coast Monday and rain can be expected during the day.
1119 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A low pressure area over southern Quebec will continue to move east overnight, with a few lingering showers and patchy drizzle across the North Country. An upper trough will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country on Saturday.
A cold front will enter the region after 03Z. /issued 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/ Upper trough coming out of the Rockies will swing across the Southern Plains later today with the secondary portion of the trough swinging down on Saturday. After the trough moves off a high pressure ridge builds in from the west.
Over the next 36 hours this high will slowly meander southeast.
An area of high pressure over eastern Dakotas will shift south through Saturday, maintaining the clear skies across the Northland through at least tonight, if not much of Saturday. Temperatures should drop into the lower 30s. The increasing westerly flow aloft, ahead of a cold front approaching from the north, could support gusts to around 20 mph. Manually increased the highs for downtown Duluth and Canal Park because the westerly flow will be strong enough to stave off a lake breeze, and to account for downslope warming. Downtown Duluth and the city of Superior should reach highs similar, if not warmer, than inland areas in the higher terrain. There will be increasing clouds from the north Saturday afternoon as the cold front works its way into the Borderland areas.
608 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Latest RAP analysis shows mid-upper low pressure over our CWA. An instability axis has developing in southeast Colorado where better thunderstorm coverage is occurring and in region of our CWA closer to the upper low circulation in that region we may see a set up for non supercell funnels to develop before sunset. While air mass will support temps below 36 over our west, the combination of wet ground and lingering cloud cover create poor radiational conditions and frost is not currently anticipated despited cooler temps.
Further west, an area of showers and storms are moving in from the southwest, associated with a short wave trough in the mid-levels. Locations farther to the north should experience widespread precip by around midnight when the front will be lifting northward in response to a potent wave of low pressure to the southwest. 1005 mb low pressure is expected to be tracking through TN. Rainfall should decrease in coverage and intensity over western counties late Saturday night when the low is forecast to be over East Tennessee, though far Eastern Kentucky could stay under showers for the bulk of the period.
High pressure over the Dakotas will give way to a developing storm system over the southern High Plains in the next 12-24 hours. Low pressure will move along this frontal boundary over the next 24-36 hours and spread rain/rainshowers across mainly the southern half of IN as early as tonight and likely Saturday. As the mid/upper low develops over the TN Valley region and swings from a positively tilted system to more neutral, then will deepen the low at the surface and increase the coverage of rainshowers through the area.
1049 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017 High pressure sits over the Dakotas, with an upper trough stretching from MT through CO. Satellite shows a broad band of stratus along the trough, and cumulus developing over portions of the northern plains. Chances for rain showers (with isolated thunderstorms in the early evening) will continue tonight across northeastern WY and southwestern SD, and then gradually diminish overnight as the trough slides south of the region. An upper ridge will bring mild weather for the weekend.
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 This afternoon, high pressure continues to build into the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Yesterdays cold front has drifted south of the Ohio River Valley, with northerly winds behind it and plenty of cirrus limiting the diurnal swing with the temps for Central Illinois. Either way, temperatures remain moderate overnight, only dropping into the low to mid 40s.
Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging is moving slowly eastward across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting slowly east across the Upper Midwest. An upper level trough was passing across western Kansas this afternoon. Saturday will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
756 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A low pressure area over southern Quebec will continue to move east overnight, with a few lingering showers and patchy drizzle across the North Country. An upper trough will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country on Saturday.
930 PM AM PDT Fri Apr 21 2017 The ridge of high pressure will bring another very warm day Saturday with highs around 100 in the lower deserts and in the 90s in the Inland Empire.
The next wave of kinematically driven rainfall looks to arrive later this afternoon and evening with the approaching upper level low with isolated showers possible between now and then in the southern CWA. Tomorrow looks to see clearing skies with afternoon CU under cool northerly flow as high pressure builds in from the NW.
In addition, the 850 mb warm front is forecast to remain quasi- stationary across those areas through Saturday morning. The models indicate the low-level southerly flow aloft will increase to 30-40 knots south of the 850 mb front tonight. WPC and model qpf is in fair agreement that the axis of heaviest rain will be near the 850 mb warm front. Rainfall intensity will diminish quickly Saturday afternoon once the 850 mb low passes across the Lower Ohio Valley.
1209 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Low pressure tracking across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States will result in rain chances this weekend, mainly south of I 70. Low pressure in conjunction with a crossing northern stream upper trough is likely to generate rain south of the I 70 corridor on Saturday, then funnel moisture across I 68 through the weekend as it digs over the Southeast Conus.
1055 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Cold front sags south through this afternoon then lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday.
The cold front is now over a small portion of southwest Tennessee and extends into northwest Mississippi and southern Arkansas. The cold front will drop a little further south tonight then start to lift back north as a warm front as low pressure develops along the front and starts to track across Arkansas. Temperatures will be cooler than they have been over the last couple of days with highs from the lower 60s to mid 70s. As the cold front moves east of the region Saturday night, there will be only a chance of showers. Temperatures will be much cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Large trough over the central US will mainly bring unsettled weather to the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley tonight and Saturday as upstream height rises of 30-40 m overspread the local area.
A stalled front is over the region tonight, and a slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms through the next 24 hours as it moves eastward across the Tn Valley.
For the next 24 hours, low pressure will move east along a stalled front over the Tn Valley, creating poor flying wx.
Keys Weather History, on April 20, 1987 the low temperature fell to 63 degrees.
High pressure will bring light winds through Saturday night.
740 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A moist onshore flow will continue through tonight as a complex area of low pressure over western New England moves slowly eastward. Some wet snow and sleet will remain possible across the higher terrain near the international border. We'll continue to see cool unsettled weather on Saturday as low pressure remains across the area.
1156 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 High pressure nudging into Lower Mi, forcing dry air advection from the north, will continue to erode the strato cu from north to south over the next two to four hours. The trough will gradually swing through over night bringing gradual clearing from the northwest to about the northern burbs of the Detroit metro area by morning. Winds will go near calm and with clear skies and dew points around or slightly below freezing, expect possibility of frost, mainly west and north of Detroit area.
1000 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Latest RAP analysis shows mid-upper low pressure over our CWA. An instability axis has developing in southeast Colorado where better thunderstorm coverage is occurring and in region of our CWA closer to the upper low circulation in that region we may see a set up for non supercell funnels to develop before sunset. While air mass will support temps below 36 over our west, the combination of wet ground and lingering cloud cover create poor radiational conditions and frost is not currently anticipated despited cooler temps.
539 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017 High pressure sits over the Dakotas, with an upper trough stretching from MT through CO. Satellite shows a broad band of stratus along the trough, and cumulus developing over portions of the northern plains. Chances for rain showers (with isolated thunderstorms in the early evening) will continue tonight across northeastern WY and southwestern SD, and then gradually diminish overnight as the trough slides south of the region. An upper ridge will bring mild weather for the weekend.
Minimal impacts in the short term other than cold frontal passage on Saturday which makes it almost through the forecast area before hanging up along the ND/SD border. High pressure over the area will keep the region dry today and tonight. With high pressure moving through far northeast ND over the next few hours, near calm winds will only aid fog development and duration. Expect low temperatures this morning near to just above the freezing mark. This boundary will make for a tight temperature gradient Saturday afternoon from cool and cloudy with highs in the 40s in the north to significantly warmer and highs perhaps into the 60s in the south.
With light winds and clear skies tonight, have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees with lows in the lower to mid 30s. There may be some more cu developing on Saturday with surface heating along with warmer southwest winds. May have to adjust highs up a little across the region as warmer 925h air is advected in.
Otherwise, expect brisk and gusty north winds across the region as a cooler airmass advances into Oklahoma and north Texas. The low clouds that currently cover most of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas will begin to break up this evening, but most of these breaks will be quite temporary.
Lowest conditions will be in the northern sites, with prevailing IFR through the period, as the surface system moves through, and upper low swings across tomorrow. Winds will be erratic in the vicinity of the stalled front, then gradually shift to the west and northwest behind the cold front.
Mainly VFR should prevail across Southwest MT as a weather disturbance exits to the east and a high pressure ridge builds-in from the west. Lift and convergence within this low is keeping areas of generally light rain/snow going across part of the area at this time. In its wake, high pressure will build in at the surface with decreasing winds.
Further north, elevated instability has been maintained with steep mid level lapse rates associated with approached trough. Noticeably cooler temps Saturday with breezy north winds.
1157 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 High pressure across the Northern Plains will build into Wrn and Ncntl Neb tonight followed by Pacific high pressure Saturday. The guidance came in with subfreezing lows tonight in the Platte valley and elsewhere. Generally clear skies are expected Saturday with high pressure moving overhead.
749 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Building high pressure has returned dry weather to the region for this evening; however, rain chances will be on the increase along and south of I 70 this weekend as low pressure develops toward the Southeastern United States. Cool, dry high pressure will build and support seasonal overnight lows, but light rain chances will increase, mainly along and south of I 70 as a deepening southern stream low pressure system shunts moisture toward the Upper Ohio Region. That low is conjunction with a crossing northern stream upper trough is likely to generate rain south of the I 70 corridor on Saturday, then funnel moisture across I 68 through the weekend as it digs over the Southeast Conus.
Lift and convergence within this low is keeping areas of generally light rain/snow going across part of the area at this time. In its wake, high pressure will build in at the surface with decreasing winds.
748 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A low pressure area over southern Quebec will continue to move east overnight, with a few lingering showers and patchy drizzle across the North Country. An upper trough will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country on Saturday.
A cold front sweeps across Sun night and early Mon with winds shifting to northwest and increasing.
Cloud cover will decrease tomorrow morning as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will lead to clear and quiet conditions tomorrow with highs in the 60s.
728 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Aviation As high pressure builds over the Great Lakes tonight, skies will gradually clear and patchy frost is possible.
An upper level trough was passing across western Kansas this afternoon. Saturday will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s will average near normal over the north, and some 5-10 warmer than normal over the south. Highs will average in the 50s, or some 5-10 deg cooler than normal for a change.
Drier weather conditions are largely expected on Saturday with an upper level ridge shifting east over the region with the axis over central Montana during the afternoon and evening hours. This will be short lived however as the next upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest will quickly translate east.
Regardless, looks like a decent potential for some severe storms tomorrow as the cold front pushes through with decent instability, shear, and plenty of moisture. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 81 59 67 / 50 50 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 77 56 65 / 80 70 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 61 76 55 63 / 80 70 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 73 53 63 / 80 80 80 80.
The threat for severe weather including tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will continue across extreme southeast Oklahoma for the next few hours as a cold front that is currently near a Wilburton to Durant line sweeps across the area.
Srn WI will remain on the srn periphery of cirrus clouds tnt into Sat AM as an upper trough tracks from the central Great Plains to the Middle MS River Valley. The midlevel trough will depart the region this evening. Then drier air will move in as a broad area of high pressure moves into northern WI overnight and remains in place through Saturday. This will allow temperatures to drop to the lower to mid 30s tonight with some frost possible. Temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 50s on Saturday, with cooler readings near the lake.
High pressure will give dry weather tonight. An upper ridge over the area will shift inland tonight. Rain will change to showers in the afternoon as the front moves inland and an upper trough moves overhead. Highs will be several degrees cooler than today - mostly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
More rounds of showers or rain are expected later tonight across central and southeast MO and southwest Illinois as the upper level trough over the central Plains approaches with the upper level divergence increasing ahead of the trough due to upper level jet coupling between the upper level jet diving into the southern Plains and the upper level jet in the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will be cooler tonight and Saturday. Mid/upper level ridging will build across the Plains helping to accelerate the mid/upper level low affecting the bi-state area further to the south and east. Cannot rule out some frost potential in favored valley areas given the high dewpoints, clearing sky, and light northerly winds.
Additional snowfall amounts should be light but given rather cold temperatures overnight and the potential for freezing of water and additional snowfall between Cheyenne and Laramie have opted to post a winter wx advy for that area into Saturday morning. The weekend will see warming temperatures with any lingering pcpn ending Saturday morning and upper ridging nosing into the region.
1146 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 At 3 PM, high clouds, associated with a short wave trough moving east northeast out of the Southern Plains, has spread north into areas along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. 12z models continue to show that these clouds will gradually thin overnight and will likely have little impact on the temperatures With partly cloudy skies, dry dew points, and light winds, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 20s in central Wisconsin and into the lower and mid 30s elsewhere. On Saturday night, a southerly return flow on the backside of the high will bring slightly warmer temperatures into the region.
929 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Saturday.
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A trough is situated from Hudson Bay and stretching southwest to the Plains. This trough will move southeast tonight into Saturday. The next round on the wrap around from the low is beginning to move in and will continue to so this evening into overnight. 5 inches with the higher values possible in southeast Kansas.
Still, with the warm frontal surface aloft over the area, will continue to see a few light showers until early morning when the next upper wave approaches bringing more widespread showers with somewhat heavier amounts. This afternoon, high pressure continues to build into the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Yesterdays cold front has drifted south of the Ohio River Valley, with northerly winds behind it and plenty of cirrus limiting the diurnal swing with the temps for Central Illinois. Either way, temperatures remain moderate overnight, only dropping into the low to mid 40s.
High pressure building off the coast will bring a warming and drying trend to the district through today. High pressure overhead resulted in very pleasant weather with above normals. The 24hr change puts many locations 3 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday. Change in the synoptic pattern by Saturday as the ridge moves inland and a mostly dry front sweeps through the state. Latest model guidance bring a chance for precip as the cold front makes landfall early Saturday.