Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 29 IN NORTHCENTRAL WI ALONG WITH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN WILL REACH THE LOWER -20S FOR WIND CHILLS FOR A FEW HOURS BY THU MORNING. THU NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY WHEN IT COMES TO COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. LONG WAVE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
339 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
SO HERE'S THE SCOOP: ROUND ONE: TONIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ICE GLAZING SITUATION ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
650 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE NAM QPF WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES AFTER 00Z (WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE), ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE SNOW FALLS HEAVILY. WE HAVE INDICATED COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY WHERE THE GREATER SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY OUR SERN COUNTIES).
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW TODAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
703 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MID DAY TOMORROW. EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION.
623 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIP SHOULD BRING THIS LINE BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE 850MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE THURS NIGHT AS THE NAM IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
845 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
959 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
TWO FEATURES TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AROUND 12Z AND EXIT SOUTH OF RSW/FMY AROUND 14Z. THE WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEN STARTING TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.
VEERING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AND THE LOWER TROPOSHERIC RIDGE IS NEARBY. WINDS WILL REMAIN A NOTCH LIGHTER OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z BRINGING SOME SHOWERS BEFORE ITS PASSAGE.
945 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING FAST NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. FRIGID AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHICH.
309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015 SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE. /ISSUED 445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
600 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEARING THE I44 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT RACED INTO THE FRONT RANGE MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WE STARTED TO THE HIGHLIGHTS A LITTLE SOONER. WL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS FOR NOW. WL NOT EXTEND THE HIGHLIGHTS ANY FURTHER THAN 6 AM MST THURSDAY.
918 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
540 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY 06Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
626 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION (MSAS) HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY EAST OF THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY (LOW PWAT VALUES) AND COLD (ABOVE FREEZING) CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES/DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST TONIGHT/THURSDAY WHICH WL ALLOW A COLD FRONT.
920 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AS CENTER OF RIDGE AS THE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MID DAY TOMORROW. EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO LIMIT SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AS SHOWN BY DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS HIGH AS 15 DEGREES AT BNA. CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS UPSTREAM WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRECIPITATING ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW.
432 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015 SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER E TX ATTM. /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER TX IS THE PROMINENT FEATURE IN THE WV IMAGERY. THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE WRN U.
PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY/ TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRATUS/FOG MAY EXPAND INTO OTHER VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT /INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/.
934 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT THE KENOSHA AREA SHORTLY.
CLOUD OVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHED THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOT UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S THANKS TO THE SUN AND SNOW-FREE GROUND. AND DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW 30S. ITS TIED TO SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC. WITH A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING THE CLIPPER BACK TO THE WEST.
Freezing rain will become a threat for KGPI, and potentially for KMSO as well, through 24/1400Z. LIGHT SNOW BECOMING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. STRONG VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND STAGNANT AIR ACROSS A weak and relatively warm Pacific storm system will impact the Northern Rockies with light snow becoming freezing rain this evening through midday Saturday.
534 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
FREEZING LEVEL WILL LOWER FROM NEAR 6500 FEET TO NEAR THE SURFACE BY 24/12Z. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND 24/15Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
At the sfc, a low is currently over SE Alabama with a cold front extending through the Florida Panhandle. The low will lift north of the forecast area this evening and then reform along the NC coast overnight pulling a cold front through the area. Lows by dawn Saturday will range from the lower 40s across the northwest half of the forecast area to the lower 50s south and east of Perry.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER WITH THE CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT CURRENT TRENDS AND HAVE THEREFORE MOVED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS UP A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY. MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR AL/GA STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DRAGGING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AT SUNRISE THEN IN SOUTH FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY AND BY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONSENSUS TEMPS RATHER THAN THE GFS MOS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
637 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 45 32 54 / 70 30 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 42 31 50 / 80 50 10 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 42 32 49 / 90 40 10 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 39 29 46 / 90 70 10 50 TN.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NOW ENTERING NW AL. AREA SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE CLOSE TO FREEZING FROM THE SFC TO ~500 MB. 5 INCH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR A SLOW FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT (30-34 F). AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT AND DUE TO PRECIPITATION LIKELY REMAINING ON THE ROADWAYS, THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. -SN IS THEN POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING BTWN 08-13Z AT BOTH TAF SITES.
954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND FREEZING NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE. ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. AN EXAMINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS THAT SUPPORTS SNOWFALL INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WITH THE REQUIRED FREEZING LEVELS SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ACROSS THE PLATEAU. SUFFICIENT FREEZING LEVELS FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE REACHED SO THAT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTHWEST. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE ARE SHOWING MOISTURE TOPPING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS BRINGING SOME WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA.
/ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ SUNNY SKIES ARE MAKING THINGS QUITE BRIGHT OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM BELOW FREEZING AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL YESTERDAY TO THE BALMY MID 40S ACROSS THE SNOW-LESS GROUND IN BEAVER COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT FREEZE IN RURAL AREAS BUT AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT. /ISSUED 318 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
323 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
512 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL JUST BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC WAS HELPING TO PUSH THIS LOW EASTWARD. EAST OF THE LOW. COLDER AIR MOVING TO THE SE INTO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN THE RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
722 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
630 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S. BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER.
WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DEFINE THIS HIGHER SNOW AREA NOW.
ACTUAL ROAD SURFACES LAG BEHIND AND COULD STILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FAR WEST AROUND 12 UTC. FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME WESTERLY BY 03Z AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID MORNING SATURDAY. /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
Forecast on track as some warmer air advects into the region. By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been pretty common of late.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND.
658 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. /ISSUED 346 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015/ MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A COOL CONTINENTAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
907 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
526 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. WITH AN EXPANSION OF SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS EVENING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS START TO COME TOGETHER DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NW.
Light north winds will tend to diminish towards evening as a high pressure ridge approaches. The Ohio River Valley will be positioned under amplified NW flow aloft today and most of tonight on the back side of a sharp trough. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure will settle over the area.
621 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/ A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. AND WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND NW MEXICO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AT 10 AM, THE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD.
POST COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA ATTENDANT A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH HAS ALREADY COMMENCED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TONIGHT: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 06Z SUN AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND MID/UPPER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64. SUNDAY: THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/SE COAST BY 00Z MON.
FINAL CLIPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANOMALOUS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS QUITE CHILLY INDEED FOR LATE MARCH.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 27 59 46 / 0 0 10 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 24 58 43 / 0 0 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 25 57 43 / 0 0 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 19 53 37 / 0 0 10 60 NC.
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015 04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AS WELL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES. PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
559 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNING TO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH LATER THIS MORNING.