Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE DIVING THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. LOWEST IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT VERY LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LARGE AND BLOSSOMING RIDGE THEN EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
350 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE FROM NW CO THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT EACH TAF PERIOD.
333 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
426 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
659 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 AFTER A FOGGY START IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA.
420 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR GROUND AND ALOFT.
Short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure becoming more amplified, building northward across the northern Rockies as it backs westward into the Intermountain West. This will draw slightly warmer air northward pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower 20s(C) across central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under decreased cloud cover, look for highs up into upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas this afternoon. Medium range models indicate the upper level ridge axis across the Intermountain West becoming more tilted to the northeast into the Northern Plains Friday as an upper level trough begins to lift northeast off the Pacific into the Pacific Northeast.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
305 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
1215 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 The quiet and dry weather pattern will persist through the end of the week as upper level ridging remains in place over the Plains and Rockies. At the surface and in the low level, high pressure will help to keep conditions relatively dry with weak winds. While the area will be under the influence of the upper ridge, the hottest temperatures associated with it will remain to our west. Humidity also doesn't look outrageous so heat indices in the lower to middle 90s are expected through the end of the week.
524 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
357 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON FRIDAY.
Friday and Friday night will experience significant weather as a cold front swings through the Northern Rockies. The cold front is anticipated to push through the region Friday afternoon into the evening.
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPS WEVE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AND BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH GEORGIA. THIS LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE BETTER MOISTURE IS PULLED BACK UP INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING THOUGH ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INITIALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST THEN TRANSITIONING OFF THE NORTHERN GULF FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT.
THE TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA.
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD THE UPPER 60S. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY.
629 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR GROUND AND ALOFT.
BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE STILL REMAINS THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE TODAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF FROM MINNESOTA BACK INTO NEBRASKA.
IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY(VORTICITY) ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT/SPIN TO KEEP MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A 60-70 POP/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE RELATIVELY COOLER MID LEVEL/500MB TEMPERATURES. THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOW 90S. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT AND STAYS IN THE AREA SUN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY(TENN/ARKANSAS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
A TROUGH DIPPING SOUTH TO THE GEORGIA COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS ARE THE CULPRIT FOR THE COL REGION SETTING UP OVER THE KEYS. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS CYCLE AS THE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL WEAKEN AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT DUE TO THE MID LATITUDE JET BECOMING ZONAL NORTH OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
352 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.
430 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
552 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HEATING AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
132 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. HWVR FLW NWD OF RIDGELINE BACKS WRLY AND WILL LEAD TO THERMAL RIDGING THU-FRI W/WARMING TEMPS. THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY/WARMER WX AS A PLAINS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OUT OF NEVADA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST TRACKS NE TOWARD THE PACNW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 4-8 DEGREES IN SW IDAHO AND 8-12 DEGREES IN SE OREGON. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND BAKER VALLEY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THUNDERSTORMS IN MN HAVE DEVELOPED WITH 850 MB WAA WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40KT 850 MB WINDS AHEAD OF AN 850 MB TROUGH THAT PUSHES ACROSS NRN WI THIS AM. BUT LINGERS AS THE 850 MB TROUGH STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE IL/WI BORDER BY 06Z. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
340 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
240 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HEATING AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECWMF COULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. THE INITIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW WILL BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW. RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW WILL PUMP UP TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THE LOW WILL BE WIND AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH WINDS ENTER THE PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL LOOK LIKE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE COAST.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID WEST INTO NM. WITH RIDGE STILL EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROF. TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
644 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD THE UPPER 60S. The large upper ridge over the Plains will not become well-established over our region at any point. In addition, surface pressures will gradually lower as the high moves off to the east.
1247 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. /ISSUED 606 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON FRI WITH SCT CU FORMING OVER THE RIDGES. HAVE A 20% POP FOR JUST SHOWERS ON THE RIDGES.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A THETA-E RIDGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MEAN RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF WILLISTON TO NEAR DICKINSON EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE MEAN RIDGE AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WEST.
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW.
618 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DO EXPECT A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SEABREEZE HELPS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMER GUIDANCE THAT HAS DONE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY RETREATS WESTWARD.
109 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. WITH UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. COULD BE AN AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SFC WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MT.
248 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
410 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STOUT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WITH SURGES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING CLOCKWISE. THE 00Z SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY.
Short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure becoming more amplified, building northward across the northern Rockies as it backs westward into the Intermountain West. This will draw slightly warmer air northward pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower 20s(C) across central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under decreased cloud cover, look for highs up into upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas this afternoon.
335 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE. INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY SPELLS FOR ANOTHER SEASONAL AUGUST AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAK AT 10 MPH SUSTAINED.
139 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
134 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL INCH SLIGHTLY EAST.
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U. AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE U. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND PUSHED SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK MONSOONAL PLUME IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA.
101 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
617 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HEATING AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
414 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
231 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND A WESTERN U. RIDGE WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAN. A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL AS WELL AS SOME WRF MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES WEST OF POINT ARENA AND WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE DISTRICT TODAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
213 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE AT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.
AND THE APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. WITH SECONDARY TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL.
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. ENSURING CONTINUED MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS. GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA GRADUALLY RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC.
Will see low clouds increase later today as a cold front slowly moves through the region.
959 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
ISSUED 301 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN MASSIVE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE. SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF INFLUX OF COLDER AIR.
541 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND CASPER WITH BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND IT. THEY DO SHEAR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APART AS IT DROPS TOWARD COLORADO.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH IT. A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY.
856 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Allowing freezing fog advisory to expire on schedule at 9 AM CST. Medium range models indicate a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the high plains of western Kansas early in the period Friday while a Rex Block briefly develops across across the Pacific Northwest down into northern California and Nevada.
THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
711 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S (COOLEST N/NW). IN THE LOWER 30S (RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS NW PIEDMONT) TO MID/UPPER 30S (SE). -VINCENT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE RRV. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. WITH SECONDARY TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL.
1036 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NETWORK WSR-88D RADARS CONTINUING TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BRISK DAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S.
535 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITE THROUGH AROUND 18Z TO 20Z TODAY. /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ FREEZING FOG HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES AROUND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME PLACES DROPPING BELOW ONE HALF MILE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL AS MAINTAINING CLOUDS. WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE THIN RIDGE IN PLACE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME A DEEP TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS NOSING WEST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH IDAHO AND OREGON TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW ORIGINATED FROM EASTERN CANADA AND WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S OR TEENS IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN THE COASTAL FORECAST ZONES.
1020 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.