Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The strengthening of the low level jet was underway across the Plains. This activity will spread east across the Missouri Ozarks Friday morning as a warm front lifts north into the area. Canadian high pressure shifted east of the Ozarks today. Starting with tonight, the higher resolution NAM supports the development of a low level jet directed into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Therefore we have focused the highest POPS over SE Kansas and SW MO.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LIGHT SFC FLOW TURNS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. BUT TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS IN SOME WARMER TEMPS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST. AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING THE EARLIEST CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST HEADLINES. AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
922 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SUPPORTED A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ONE SEVERE STORM CAUSING SOME DAMAGE OVER MANATEE COUNTY. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES EXPECT TO SEE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS COME TO AN END AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TAKES HOLD.
OR ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM AN EMBEDDED S/W TROUGH. NESDIS/SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH HAS CURRENTLY BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY SUCH POTENT S/W TROUGH. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE CINH VALUES ARE THE LOWEST.
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST HEADLINES. AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
814 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C). FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY'S END.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
847 PM MST THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
547 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW.
643 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015 Canadian high pressure shifted east of the Ozarks today. Starting with tonight, the higher resolution NAM supports the development of a low level jet directed into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Therefore we have focused the highest POPS over SE Kansas and SW MO.
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL EXPAND NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REGROUP AROUND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES FROM CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING TO A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MCCALL TO ONTARIO TO S-CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTY BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
1039 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C). FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY'S END.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY.
AS LOW STRATUS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHWRS OVER E TX AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IN S AR/N LA AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWRD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING FROM ELY TO S/SELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NWRD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
832 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL PREVAIL AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY.
1148 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015 /06Z TAFS/ Showers with isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the morning, as an upper low west of El Paso moves northeast. Overnight, as the main upper level low continues to move toward the area, additional thunderstorm development is expected for the southern 1/3 of our area.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 70 56 78 / 0 10 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 69 52 75 / 0 10 70 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 69 52 75 / 0 10 70 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 67 44 67 / 0 0 60 90 NC.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
920 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU. STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LIGHT SFC FLOW TURNS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
942 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES AND THE LATEST HRRR IS BRINGING SOME SHRAS TOWARD THE AREA LATE AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT THEM MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LIGHT SFC FLOW TURNS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z/25, MIDDLE TN ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MOISTEN AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BCMG NE BY LATE AFT AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
923 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE GA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 942 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/ COOL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES AND THE LATEST HRRR IS BRINGING SOME SHRAS TOWARD THE AREA LATE AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT THEM MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAYS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY'S NIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
1026 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
746 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE A COOL NORTHEAST WIND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SEND SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR.
1048 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WI AND MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI AND A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE. WHICH IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
The region is currently in a northwest upper level flow pattern as an upper level low slowly spreads southeast into the Gulf Coast states. The northwest flow pattern will remain over the area through the weekend resulting in drier and cooler conditions through the weekend.
1034 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DWINDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
622 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WI AND MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI AND A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE. WHICH IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 The region is currently in a northwest upper level flow pattern as an upper level low slowly spreads southeast into the Gulf Coast states. The northwest flow pattern will remain over the area through the weekend resulting in drier and cooler conditions through the weekend.
UPPER LOW ROTATING ABOUT A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE BASED ON LATEST RAP40. LOOKS LIKE UPPER LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO ALABAMA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS BACKDOORING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LOW SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE NATURE COAST WILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
CLEAR SKIES AND DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 50S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL IN TO THE LOWER 60S BY MORNING.
1200 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE A COOL NORTHEAST WIND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SEND SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING STRATUS THAT COVERED NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA TONIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS EVENING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS ARE NOW ANTICIPATED.
616 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES JUST EAST OF ARKANSAS AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
Late this afternoon a mid-level ridge extended from the Southern Plains into the Rockies and High Plains, with the forecast area located along the eastern ridge axis. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern Canada but extended southwestward across the Great Lakes region and into the central U. There was enough lift today to develop mid-level clouds along the eastern ridge axis across western and central Kansas with notably drier conditions in the lower levels. With the expected increasing mid-level cloud cover overnight, have increased low temperatures a bit across north central Kansas into the mid 40s, with readings in the low 40s likely in eastern Kansas.
630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE RIDGE COMPLEX MAINTAINING FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION. SOMEWHAT COOLER VERTICAL PROFILES KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD LEAN TOWARD LESS CU/CLOUD ROWS OR PATCHES THAN TODAY AND 1-2 DEGREE WARMER HIGHS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP NEVADA MILD WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS AGREE MOVING 570 DM UPPER LOW TO NEAR WENDOVER BY 5 AM. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH MORE SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AS UPPER LOW CENTERED NOW OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO MID STATE.
847 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
659 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 High pressure continues to build into the Midwest tonight with the ridge axis to the west and the high centered over the Hudson Bay. With sfc winds out of the northeast, and breezy at times, through the period, cooler temps will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 Steady northeast winds will highlight the overnight conditions, as clear skies prevail under persistent high pressure. Another chilly night is in store, as lows range from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s in the SE near Lawrenceville. Clouds associated with low pressure in the eastern third of the lower 48 will begin to surge westward toward Illinois tomorrow. High pressure continues to build into the Midwest tonight with the ridge axis to the west and the high centered over the Hudson Bay. With sfc winds out of the northeast, and breezy at times, through the period, cooler temps will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
1230 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
1152 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD JOG TOWARD THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF WARMER LAKE WILL KEEP THE EAST WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD DECK WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT JUST ABOVE THE LOWER VFR LIMITS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
High pressure will remain strong over east Canada with a ridge extension down into the central U.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
1041 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO FEED A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOL/DRY AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH LESS OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY/S AS THE CONTINUED BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREADS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S. WESTERN NY WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
804 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
613 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD JOG TOWARD THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
521 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US HAS BEEN PROPAGATING EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A -15C H5 CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO REGION ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND INCOMING TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OVER THE NORTH ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
618 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
948 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO ROTATE UP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
/ISSUED 806 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 03/00Z UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ Drier and cooler air continues to settle over the region this evening on light north to northeast winds.
1221 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST.
VFR FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
623 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DWINDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
1134 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
945 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF CULLMAN COUNTY PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT THE LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION OF ELEVATED CAPE BECOME LESS STEEP AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER DECREASES.
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE RIDGE COMPLEX MAINTAINING FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION. SOMEWHAT COOLER VERTICAL PROFILES KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD LEAN TOWARD LESS CU/CLOUD ROWS OR PATCHES THAN TODAY AND 1-2 DEGREE WARMER HIGHS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 63 58 66 / 70 60 50 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 65 55 63 / 80 70 60 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 64 54 62 / 70 70 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 65 53 64 / 100 70 80 80 NC.