Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
905 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
802 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/WEST. THEY'LL START TO RELAX JUST A LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP. IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
1047 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSSMEMPHIS AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH WHILE A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF IS LIFTING NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAL COVERAGE IS STARTING TO PICK UP AS LIFT GENERATED FROM THE MID LEVEL TROF OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS THROUGH. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
918 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT NOW WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BEFORE SUNRISE. SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH FROM SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION AS THIS OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
1021 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
617 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front departing the far SE KILX CWA, with showers lingering along and just behind the boundary. However, there are still a few differences with the disposition of this low later in the week. Main storm track will be along the Canadian border and upper Midwest, resulting in the low generally meandering northeast.
929 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MIGRATES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH RIDGING WORKING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP READINGS A BIT COOLER FROM ROUGHLY WEST BEND TO WAUKESHA AND POINTS EAST.
Additionally, an approaching short wave trough and upper level jet streak should result in an increase in mid and upper level lift. An upper level low pressure system is currently located over northern Texas this afternoon and moving very slowly. Will go with a blend of the models for rain chances and QPF with the highest chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be over southeast Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
746 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE TIED TO A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER INDIANA WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE RIDGES BY TUESDAY MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE RIDGES UNTIL MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS BECOMING A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
800 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MID WEEK IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS MEMPHIS AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH WHILE A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF IS LIFTING NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAL COVERAGE IS STARTING TO PICK UP AS LIFT GENERATED FROM THE MID LEVEL TROF OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS THROUGH. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
1011 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MID WEEK IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
730 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING SEASON TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PD BUT THE LOW VSBYS WILL RELAX A BIT AFT 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW. LEAVING THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATED WITH CALM WINDS AND DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
836 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 Extensive area of mid and high level cloudiness across central through southeast Illinois as low pressure tracks well to our south tonight. Further north, high pressure will move across the southern Great Lakes with quite a bit of dry air advecting south into our region overnight. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front departing the far SE KILX CWA, with showers lingering along and just behind the boundary. However, there are still a few differences with the disposition of this low later in the week. Main storm track will be along the Canadian border and upper Midwest, resulting in the low generally meandering northeast.
807 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING TAKING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
930 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 AN UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER WEST TEXAS AT 9 PM. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO SINK SOUTHWARD. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF WACO/TYLER LINE WITH RADAR SHOWING A FINE LINE THROUGH TEMPLE.
629 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 RH VALUES HAVE TANKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TEENS WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN GUSTY. NOT SO SURE THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL LAST MUCH LONGER. MODELS KEEP SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION FOR MID WEEK. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS CWA BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL COL POINT/REGION WITH CLOSED LOW ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS EVENING CONSISTED OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAD FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION EAST NORTHEASTWARD COMING CLOSE TO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES OKLAHOMA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A 20-40KT LLJ ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD AID IN LOW TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW. LEAVING THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATED WITH CALM WINDS AND DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHES SOUTH AND COULD PUSH INTO THE HOUSTON AREA BY MID MORNING. /ISSUED 930 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ AN UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER WEST TEXAS AT 9 PM. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO SINK SOUTHWARD. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF WACO/TYLER LINE WITH RADAR SHOWING A FINE LINE THROUGH TEMPLE.
708 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
1201 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING TAKING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ENOUGH COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY EVENING TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.
309 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE TEXAS COAST JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON THIS AFTERNOON.
1252 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF -RA AFTER 10Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF.
258 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015 Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west central Illinois early this afternoon. The high will be settling southward across the CWA this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around 2000 feet hanging in place. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break up sooner. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not.
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM 20 TO 24 DEGREES. FOR FRIDAY, WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE AT 10 TO 15 MPH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON'S BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IS INDICATING THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SW NM AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NEWRD ALTHOUGH SOME DRY SLOTTING IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY MORNING.
234 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 QUIET AND MILD WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY.
1159 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 AVIATION A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
1241 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.
227 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
1221 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
136 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015 UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE GENERALLY WARMER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE WEST. SOUTHERN BRANCH POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. MID LEVEL (700MB) SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION (+10C 850MB TEMPERATURE AT EDMONTON AT 12Z). SOME WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/DAKOTAS. SOME SIGNALS FOR SOME SHALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER LATER TONIGHT.
315 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION. WITH LIGHT RAIN PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MAINTAIN OUR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
420 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY. OFFERING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
1208 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND RACE NORTHEASTWARD.
411 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. LAST OF THE FLURRIES SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES. AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SEEM TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
1134 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY RAPIDLY BACKING THE FLOW TO W/SW BY AFTERNOON.
FREEZING RAIN AND. Valley fog and freezing fog will also add to travel difficulty Friday morning.
338 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015 An upper level trough across eastern NM will move east across central TX Tonight and Friday. Weak isentropic lift at the 280K theta level across the eastern half of the CWA have kept the low stratus in place through the early afternoon hours.
247 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A COLD AIRMASS ALREADY SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BREEZY/WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. ADDITIONAL RAIN /MAINLY LIGHT/ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CWA BECOMES PLACED IN THE RRQ OF A 110KT H25 JET STREAK AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES.
904 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN AN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY PROTECTING OUR REGION FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SO WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
SOME SIGNIFICANCE TO THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS THEY WOULD HAVE A BEARING ON PCPN TYPE WITH A TROUGH ON FRIDAY. AS FOR THIS TROUGH. SOME OF THAT PCPN TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH THE HIGHER PCPN CHANCES ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS NEVER QUITE MAKES IT TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AS AN EAST COAST TROUGH REASSERTS ITSELF. AROUND +2 TEMP/HEIGHT ANOMALIES UNDER THE RIDGE. AND THUS WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY. THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILING WHERE THE HIGHER THREAT WILL LIE. WILL KEEP THE HIGH CHANCES/LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM 20 TO 24 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON'S BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
1214 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY LOW CLOUDS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION. BUT THE CONCERN IS FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND SUB- FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH WESTERN MN HAVING MORE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHEAST WY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY/TONIGHT LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH SHORT RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AT THIS TIME. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. WITH GFS AND AND EC PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH HAVE TAPERED BACK HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. UPPER TROF MOVING ONSHORE OUT WEST WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT.
1139 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY.
1137 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1047 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A WEAK FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LOCAL LIGHT SNOW OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH PASSES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GENERALLY DECREASE.
AS OF WRITING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PREMONT TO THE WEST SIDE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT AND QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST.
305 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. UPDATE MADE TO PROLONG MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AND TO ADD THE MENTION OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS SOME RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SEEM TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COOL TEMPS AND INCREASED WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE RIM NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SO LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIR MASS RAPIDLY MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE, A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.
1133 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
1253 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
259 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GIVE US A GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY.
339 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SHARP WSW/ENE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO ERN CO. WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WRN NEB FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
There may be some clearing over the northwestern portion of the forecast area late tonight, but it appears that the more pessimistic NAM model MOS guidance may be more correct than the GFS MOS with respect to the low level cloud forecast tonight. These low level clouds will lead to slightly warmer minimum temperatures tonight and keep them slightly above seasonal normals for late January.
1236 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
340 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
Have the highest snow amounts, 1 to 3 inches with localize amounts of 4 inches, mainly across the western Concho Valley. All eyes to the west as the upper level trough axis itself approaches. With temperatures very near freezing. Precipitation will becoming to an end Friday morning, as the axis of the upper trough moves east. Clearing otherwise in subsidence behind the upper trough.
156 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
1254 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
410 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING, AS EXPECTED, OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST, TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT DOES. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.