Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The area further slips into the colder air through the overnight and into Monday as a robust PV anomaly digs south into the Great Lakes region and further carves out a deep trough over the eastern two-thirds of the conus.
244 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Quiet and pleasant fall conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the work week courtesy of strong upper level ridging over the region. The quiet and pleasant conditions will come to end by the end of the work week, with windier and cooler conditions developing across the state.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front that sparked the rain and thunderstorms last night and today has moved well to the south of the forecast area. Although PWATs will begin to gradually trend down tonight and tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will continue as an upper level closed low currently located in Arizona continues to move east. As the low moves closer to west Texas, isentropic upglide will increase and lead to continued widespread rainfall with the highest rain totals again in the South Plains and the Rolling Plains.
The clear skies, along with light winds and a dry airmass, will support temperatures dropping below freezing in most areas tonight. Temperatures in the Denver and Boulder metro areas will be slightly warmer per usual, but there's only light downslope so expect areas of frost as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s. A couple low lying spots could drop slightly below freezing. Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will build through the middle of the week, leading to a prolonged period of above normal temperatures and dry weather.
144 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure building into the Southwest will bring a gradual warming trend early this week.
239 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.
An upper level trough extends from Hudson Bay into the Upper Midwest. An upper level ridge is in place over the western United States with a high centered over Idaho. At the surface, a high pressure system extends from northern Canada to Nebraska, leading to abundant northerly cold air advection towards the forecast area. Southwest Nebraska is less likely to get that cold and has a forecast of lows in the upper 20s, warmer than the rest of the area as it is farther from the influence of the cold airmass and cold air advection will be weaker. An upper level low develops over Michigan and deepens, further supporting cold air to the east.
High pressure centered over the area will continue to support clear skies and above-normal temperatures today.
This afternoon through Monday night High pressure will remain over the PACNW and the Canadian Rockies today, with the high center over the ID Panhandle.
1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Today through tonight: the highly amplified upper level pattern responsible for the upcoming early season frost/freeze event will be taking shape as we finish up the weekend. A highly anomalous upper trough digging southward across eastern North America will send a cold front southward into the forecast area tonight, and there should be just enough moisture to support a few showers along/west of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, expect another dry, warm day preceding the front with readings topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /EC/ Monday: A cold front will push southeastward across the area during the day Monday, with scattered sprinkles and light showers expected. The northerly breeze will begin to make conditions cooler by the afternoon, heading into a cold overnight.
Tranquil conditions will persist tonight into Monday as ridging aloft continues to build while shifting slowly east through the northern Intermountain West. Any precip chances are expected to remain confined well to our south in association with a closed upper low tracking east through the Desert Southwest. Depending on how long ongoing cloud cover lasts into tonight, we could see lows dipping near to a little below freezing across northern zones, particularly up near the I-70 corridor. The potential for freezing temperatures will linger across western Kansas early in the work week but the challenge in the later periods will be how long this cooler air will keep its hold on western Kansas. Ensembles along with all of the deterministic models are in good agreement early in the work week with an upper low crossing the Great Lakes Region.
Tranquil conditions will persist tonight into Monday as ridging aloft continues to build while shifting slowly east through the northern Intermountain West. Any precip chances are expected to remain confined well to our south in association with a closed upper low tracking east through the Desert Southwest. Depending on how long ongoing cloud cover lasts into tonight, we could see lows dipping near to a little below freezing across northern zones, particularly up near the I-70 corridor.
140 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Upper air high pressure over the western US will bring dry and mild weather for the next several days.
That also means temperatures will remain on the cooler side, and this is reflected well in the current forecast. Widespread frost/freezing temps expected across the plains tonight. An upper level ridge slowly pushes eastward entering the Central Plains.
We are looking for much of this activity to generally form in association with the cold front, which will continue moving across the area this afternoon. Some minor flooding issues in the low lying areas and flood prone locations seem like the most likely issues we may see.
Expect mid- and upper-level clouds to increase through the afternoon ahead of a slowly-approaching cold front.
High pressure will hold over the region through tonight and will exit east of the area on Monday as a cold front approaches north Florida.
337 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A seasonably cool and breezy afternoon is being observed across the region behind a cold front which pushed south across the local area early in the day. no significant changes were noted as most areas should dip below freezing to start the day Monday.
(This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight. Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos area.
344 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure will continue to produce dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night.
225 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 No changes in the large scale pattern this afternoon with the nearly stationary broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS and upper ridge over the Intermountain West. Light winds, a dry boundary layer and clear skies will promote ideal radiational cooling with freezing temperatures and areas of frost over much of southeast WY. Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
An associated cold front will push southeastward into northwest AL and central MS by midday Monday then southward through our forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees over the southern half our area and around 60 degrees to the lower 60s in our northern zones. Highs on Monday are currently only forecast to reach into the mid to upper 70s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL and in the lower 80s over the rest of the region.
(Monday through Sunday) Well below normal temperatures - during both the daytime and at night - will prevail for the first few days of the upcoming work week, with a highly amplified western ridge and eastern trough keeping chilly northerly flow aloft atop the central CONUS.
High pressure building in will bring a gradual warming trend early this week.
Warmer conditions are expected during the upcoming workweek with only a few clouds here and there. Looking at the movement of the convection, the upper low is centered roughly in the Picacho Peak area at this time and it will continue moving to the northeast into Monday. The low center is expected to be far enough east by Monday that the area should be dry with the exception of the White Mountains where a few afternoon showers are a fair bet. It will be warmer Monday but still about 5 (west) to 10 (east) degrees cooler than average for the day.
629 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected.
Clouds will be decreasing as the atmosphere stabilizes and cirrus follows the low eastward. High pressure builds over the Northwest and spreads over the region on Monday. Subsidence associated with the high and declining influence from the low to the southeast will result in sunny or mostly sunny skies across the region Monday. Deterministic models have painted another rex block off the CA coast holding back a high amplitude ridge that extends from the four corners into the Northwest Territories of Canada.
940 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 In the wake of a cold front, west winds will usher in a significantly colder airmass for the beginning of the work week.
803 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Quiet and pleasant fall conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the work week courtesy of strong upper level ridging over the region. The quiet and pleasant conditions will come to end by the end of the work week, with windier and cooler conditions developing across the state. - Pierce 510 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (17/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions continue to prevail under high pressure aloft and occasional high-level clouds.
432 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 No changes in the large scale pattern this afternoon with the nearly stationary broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS and upper ridge over the Intermountain West. Light winds, a dry boundary layer and clear skies will promote ideal radiational cooling with freezing temperatures and areas of frost over much of southeast WY. Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
(The rest of tonight) Quiet conditions are expected overnight as drier air continues to funnel in from the north in the wake of an exiting upper low and cold front. Clouds will hang near the Red River through much of the night keeping temps quite a bit warmer there. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) Well below normal temperatures - during both the daytime and at night - will prevail for the first few days of the upcoming work week, with a highly amplified western ridge and eastern trough keeping chilly northerly flow aloft atop the central CONUS.
Dry conditions as high pressure over Florida shifts eastward, causing light onshore/easterly winds to become southerly tonight. High pressure will shift eastward into the Atlantic, veering winds from easterly around 10 kts to southerly 5-10 kts early in the morning.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 725 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight. Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos area.
833 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.
High pressure continues to hold over the region leading to a drier pattern for the rest of tonight. Moisture returns tomorrow as a cold front approaches Florida from the north.
It's not hard to see why given the moisture surge occurring and the fact that at mid and upper levels we lie on the eastern periphery of a ridge. At the same time, low level winds will be gradually veering in response to the trough digging. High pressure along the southeastern United States coast will shift eastward and weaken overnight through Monday.
847 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure will continue to produce dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night.
Boxell (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Pesky showers wrapping southeast through the area with left front quad of jet rounding mid/upper trough along with some 700 millibar baroclinicity. Although, admittedly, confidence has waned a bit especially given latest the aforementioned cloud trends and some of the latest temp guidance that suggests the freezing temps would ooze in from the northwest and duration of any freeze may end up being quite short.
The latest surface analysis places a 1008mb low over Lake Erie with an attendant cold front extending from Cleveland, Ohio and southwest through Bowling Green, Kentucky and back through Memphis, Tennessee. Expect lows to fall into the lower 40s across the north with lower 50s to the south.
Quiet and pleasant fall conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the work week courtesy of strong upper level ridging over the region. The quiet and pleasant conditions will come to end by the end of the work week, with windier and cooler conditions developing across the state.
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (This evening through Monday) The cold front that sparked the rain and thunderstorms last night and today has moved well to the south of the forecast area. Although PWATs will begin to gradually trend down tonight and tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will continue as an upper level closed low currently located in Arizona continues to move east. As the low moves closer to west Texas, isentropic upglide will increase and lead to continued widespread rainfall with the highest rain totals again in the South Plains and the Rolling Plains.
710 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure will continue to produce dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night.
A seasonably cool and breezy afternoon is being observed across the region behind a cold front which pushed south across the local area early in the day. no significant changes were noted as most areas should dip below freezing to start the day Monday.
Much cooler, and very dry air arrives tomorrow. Rain chances linger over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening as the cold front continues its slow progression south over Texas with chances of light rain continuing into Monday morning across portions of western north Texas. As a reinforcing cold front moves through tomorrow, dewpoint temperatures fall into the teens across northern Oklahoma and cloud cover diminishes from north to south.
948 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected.
Will continue to have the north winds bring cooler air to the area with most locations seeing mostly clear skies and temps in the upper teens or low 20s by morning.
High pressure over the region continues to encourage dry conditions.
215 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Key Messages: - Cold start to the week, but ending on a warmer note - Little to no precipitation this work week - Precipitation chances return for the end of the upcoming weekend Temperatures: Cold, then turning warmer Mid-level water vapor imagery shows the low pressure system off to the east over the Great Lakes Region. Overhead and even further back west across the northern plains, an increasing pressure gradient was noted as ridging builds over the western CONUS. Not expecting to shatter the overall lowest of the low temperatures, but the afternoon temperatures near the record for lowest high temperature today for many locations across the upper midwest.
The lingering front should also begin to drift further to the SE later this morning, leaving mostly sunny skies in place, as cooler/dry air filters into the central TN Valley from the NNW. Temps later today will trend 10-15F cooler than seasonal averages, as highs struggle to climb past the mid/upper 60s range.
Will see temps continue to fall to the low 20s and or upper teens by morning.
1042 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 No changes in the large scale pattern this afternoon with the nearly stationary broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS and upper ridge over the Intermountain West. Light winds, a dry boundary layer and clear skies will promote ideal radiational cooling with freezing temperatures and areas of frost over much of southeast WY. Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
451 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.
Otherwise, a cold front will push through the area today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s across the area. For tonight, cold advection behind the front will usher in a much cooler airmass into portions of the area with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s across southeast Alabama to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend.
358 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Today through tonight: An anomalous upper level trough responsible for the upcoming early season frost/freeze event will dig sharply southward across the eastern CONUS in the highly amplified pattern. This will send a cold front southward through the forecast area this morning, and there should be just enough moisture to support a few showers with its passage. Temperatures will drop considerably tonight in a cold advection pattern and readings could dip into the mid 30s along/north of the Highway 82 corridor by daybreak.
316 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today through Sunday) The cold front has finally made its way across the Mid-South, causing temperatures and dewpoints to decrease for the remainder of the overnight hours. The main concern over the next several days is overnight temperatures, which are expected to fall below freezing for a majority of the Mid-South.
1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (The rest of tonight) Quiet conditions are expected overnight as drier air continues to funnel in from the north in the wake of an exiting upper low and cold front. Clouds will hang near the Red River through much of the night keeping temps quite a bit warmer there. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) Well below normal temperatures - during both the daytime and at night - will prevail for the first few days of the upcoming work week, with a highly amplified western ridge and eastern trough keeping chilly northerly flow aloft atop the central CONUS.
Key Message will be freezing temperatures over the next few days.
239 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A bank of mid clouds across western and central South Dakota early this morning will continue a slow progression southwards due to steering flow from the north as we remain centered between a western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS upper low.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 103 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight. Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos area.
Cooler air will continue to filter south keeping temperatures will below normal. Some elevated fire may develop across northern Oklahoma as the dry air will allow RH values to drop below 20 percent even with the cooler temps.
The large majority of the area will see temperatures dip below freezing by daybreak, but it is uncertain how much will see a true âhard freezeâ of 28 degrees or below. Tonight, there is still high confidence in sub-freezing temperatures across the entire area.
Large scale pattern characterized by a well amplified ridge over the Pacific NW with deep trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front was moving into the southern Plains with high pressure building in behind across the central Plains.
903 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure building into the Southwest will bring warmer weather early this week.
201 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 In the wake of a cold front, west winds will usher in a significantly colder airmass for the beginning of the work week.
Dry and mild conditions with above average temperatures will persist through the work week before an incoming system brings cooler temperatures, precipitation chances, and gusty winds to the region over the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front will advance through the region early this morning. A cold front, currently situation near Perry County, will continue to advance southeast and is anticipated to make complete passage through our county warning area between 13-16Z and bring very dry conditions. Temperatures today will range between 10 to 15 degrees below the climatological average as cold air associated with an upper- level trough over the Great Lakes digs into the Ohio River Valley.
143 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A high amplitude ridge remains the main driver of weather in the short-term, producing more benign weather. Winds will remain light under the ridge.
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (This evening through Monday) The cold front that sparked the rain and thunderstorms last night and today has moved well to the south of the forecast area. Although PWATs will begin to gradually trend down tonight and tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will continue as an upper level closed low currently located in Arizona continues to move east. As the low moves closer to west Texas, isentropic upglide will increase and lead to continued widespread rainfall with the highest rain totals again in the South Plains and the Rolling Plains.
129 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A persistent area of high pressure will continue to provide mild afternoons, cool nights, and light breezes through the upcoming work week. A pattern change is possible this weekend as a strong cold front could yield much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for light precipitation across the region. An amplified blocking ridge positioned across the western U.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the continued pattern of the trough axis out east with a ridging pattern over the western CONUS and a cutoff low spinning over the desert southwest. Associated CAA throughout the day today will limit afternoon high temperatures to the low 50s under mostly clear skies.
352 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Today: The upper level ridging still continues with the high pressure over Idaho remaining in place. Therefore we are still in northwest flow with 850mb temperatures below freezing. A stratus deck is in place across the western half of our forecast area, this will act like a blanket and keep the temperatures this morning a little warmer than the east. At the 850mb level, temperatures above freezing are in the west, while the east will stay under temperatures below freezing. Tonight: Tonight looks to be mostly clear with temperatures cooler than Sunday night.
1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Quiet and pleasant fall conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the work week courtesy of strong upper level ridging over the region. The quiet and pleasant conditions will come to end by the end of the work week, with windier and cooler conditions developing across the state. - Pierce 1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (17/06Z TAF period) VFR prevails through Monday night as upper level high pressure remains anchored over the Northern Rockies, maintaining clear skies with occasional thin high clouds and generally light surface winds.
210 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.