Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mainly just light rain will continue over parts of southeast MO and southwest IL until noon when the upper level trough shifts east of our area. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today due to the cloud cover this morning and a northerly surface wind. There may be patchy frost late tonight/early Wednesday morning with a mostly clear sky and light winds along with a few colder, low lying areas dropping down to near the freezing mark, mainly across west central and southwest IL. A warming trend will begin Wednesday afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the central US, and as the surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of our area.
High pressure should result in dry weather by late week. An upper trough is progged to track from the Midwest to the Upper OH Valley region this afternoon. With 850 mb temperatures just below freezing, some snow is possible in the highest elevations of Tucker and Garrett counties as the boundary layer cools after sunset, though any accumulation should be light. Precipitation chances should diminish Wednesday as the trough exits.
Have raised forecast highs to near 70 across south Central South Dakota, with highs in the 50s and 60s further to the east where more clouds and cooler temperatures aloft persist. Best chances appears to be along and north of I-90 where a weak short wave rotates around a large upper trough across the Pacific NW. Isentropic lift increases across the area on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night ahead of upper trough expanding into the Northern Plains.
Upper trough across the southern Plains will move toward the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians late tonight and Tuesday. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 40 59 41 67 / 90 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 38 55 40 64 / 90 60 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 39 56 40 64 / 90 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 37 53 37 61 / 90 90 10 0 0.
A couple of cold fronts will move through the area, the first one moving through late tonight/Tuesday with some rainshowers in it/s wake. Then the Alaskan storm will stall over the Pacific NW while the second cold front drops in Wednesday morning.
1234 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest over the next few days bringing dry conditions. Temperatures should be a little cooler Tuesday and then slowly warm through the rest of the week.
1045 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The upper level ridge which allowed for today's clear skies and warm temperatures will move eastward this evening as a vorticity maximum moves through the northern stream jet.
Southern Idaho is right in the middle of a spring snowstorm with rain at the lower elevations, mainly below 5500ft. The fast upper level flow behind the cold front that will move into the Snake River plain this morning should push wind into Advisory criteria, along with blowing dust if the rain hasn't amounted to much. Another factor for today is the strong instability associated with cold fronts does appear to be enough to trigger some isolated thunderstorms in the central Idaho mountains and the Montana border region down to the Palisades reservoir area on the Wyoming border. The weak low pressure that remains in the storm's wake has enough surface convergence that snow showers will continue to be a threat tonight through Thu night.
322 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Upper level low pressure remains over the area through Tuesday. Early this morning rounds of snow showers continue to rotate through western Maine and into New Hampshire as an area of upper level low pressure stalls and reorganizes just offshore. It will be a similar story tonight and Wednesday as the upper low continues to wiggle around over New England.
Mostly sunny to sunny skies and a light and variable wind through the day will offset weak cold air advection resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s across the region.
Zonal flow aloft over region as mid/upper ridge previously parked over the state and responsible for the recent warm spell has weakened and retreated south this evening, while a stalled surface frontal boundary is draped along the northern Gulf Coast. Increased cloud cover will keep Tuesday afternoon highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s areawide after dropping into the lower to mid 60s tonight.
Further west, cloud cover has helped temperatures hold on in the upper 40s and even low 50s, but as the cold front will eventually arrive. Lows are still on track to bottom out in the low 30s area-wide.
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 High pressure remains in control today, with another seasonable day in store for most of the area. East winds in the low levels have led to some Lake Michigan enhanced clouds across parts of eastern into central Wisconsin as of 2 am. A large scale trough currently sitting just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will be the system to watch as it brings a few waves of precipitation for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Some mix with snow is possible at the onset on Wednesday morning as overnight lows are expected to be in the low to middle 30s.
310 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 An upper level system moving toward MO/AR continued to produce widespread rains from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio and lower/mid Mississippi Valley regions. Tonight, high pressure will move across the area resulting in cool temperatures, and possibly some frost, something we haven't seen in a while.
Ridging and dry weather continue tonight but additional clouds will move in from the SW ahead of an approaching system. An upper trough will affect the area Tuesday which could bring rain to southern Indiana but the main impacts to central Indiana will be cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. the models have continued to trend towards the low moving slightly further south which has moved the rain chances further south with it. The rest of the short term will see ridging once again, leading to a nice few days of a break from any rain in the area.
This upper level low will lead to light rain across central Nebraska and northeast Nebraska. However, as temperatures have been about 5 degrees warmer than expected today, it is possible that temperatures reach 70 degrees again. Consistent southerly winds at 10 to 15 MPH will lead to an even warmer Wednesday.
Progressive pattern will continue with water vapor imagery showing a well defined trough over the western high plains at this time. The main precip event continues to evolve with the aforementioned upper trough moving across the region tonight. Trough axis crosses the Mississippi River early Tuesday but enough moisture remains behind that precipitation chances will continue Tuesday morning with chances ending across the area by early afternoon. Weak upper ridging will then build in for the remainder of the short term period with dry conditions. With upper ridging for Wednesday, temperatures will rise to above normal.
409 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Upper level low pressure remains over the area through Tuesday. Early this morning rounds of snow showers continue to rotate through western Maine and into New Hampshire as an area of upper level low pressure stalls and reorganizes just offshore. It will be a similar story tonight and Wednesday as the upper low continues to wiggle around over New England.
/issued 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper trough over the southern Rockies is moving east into the central and southern High Plains. A Pacific front is moving east across the Permian Basin, and a warm front was in our far northern counties and moving north. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm development through late this afternoon and early evening, as the upper trough continues to move east and the Pacific front moves in from the west. Temperatures will be cooler overnight with a drier airmass. Tuesday morning lows are expected to be mostly in the lower 50s, with a few upper 40s possible.
The trough will continue to move to the east today, and the rainfall will also do so too. Upper level ridging will build over the region on Wednesday as highs warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, an upr lvl trof wl track acrs the region early today, with lingering rainfall tapering off fm the W heading into this aftn. Heading into tngt and Wed, ridging at the sfc and aloft, wl settle ovr the region.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed low pressure well to our east over extreme southeast Ontario with a ridge of high pressure that stretched from near Hudson Bay southwest into MN, then south through the Midwest. Min temperatures to range from the lower 20s north-central WI, to around 30 degrees east-central WI. The cloud battle of drier air from the high pressure versus the more moist air from the northeast wind/CAA will continue into Tuesday with central WI more likely to see at least some filtered sunshine, whereas eastern WI appears stuck under mostly cloudy skies.
119 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 A weak area of low pressure will move across the southern states on Tuesday, perhaps bringing some light rain to northern Kentucky and far southern Ohio. Now have them ranging from the mid 30s in the northwest to the lower 40s in the far south.
/Today through Wednesday/ The cold front is shifting east across our eastern zones this morning and is ending precipitation from west to east as it does so. Skies will clear and winds will decouple tonight as high pressure builds in at the surface; there may be some patchy fog around the region as a result. High temperatures will warm back into the 70s on Wednesday as upper level ridging builds in from the west.
Winds increase a little from the south ahead of a cold front. There is a chance for some light rain behind the cold front as it moves through. Have some light freezing rain during the change over to snow. With that in mind, there could be a little freezing rain, but with the surface a little warmer there will not be a lot of accumulation.
An area of low pressure moving across the Tennessee valley will be the trigger for the rain showers we see today and tonight. Todays temperatures will be much cooler than normal, due to widespread cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly to northeasterly winds. We will see lows tonight in the upper 30s and highs on Wednesday in the low 50s, which will also both be below normal for this time of year. In fact, its entirely possible many areas stay cloudy into or through Wednesday night as the ridge axis makes very little if any progress to the east based on the 12z model guidance.
A cold front will move eastward through the region tonight. Expect rain and snow to accompany the cold front.
433 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Currently - High pressure centered east of the Bahamas extends a ridge westward across South Florida and the Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico. Light southeast flow will gradually veer southwest to west through the day as the Keys becomes enveloped in the southern periphery of a prefrontal trough that will extend west southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. There is the potential for a reverse cloud line emanating east northeastward out of the Lower Keys as the flow swings west southwest. The prefrontal trough will swing into the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect winds to strengthen moderately in associated with this prefrontal trough. In wake of the trough winds will swing northwest later Wednesday and north that night.
Models have also picked up on a dry slot behind the cold front that may give a break in the rainfall to southwest zones just after sunrise, and will move east through the morning. Wednesday will remain on the cool side with northwest flow aloft ahead of a building ridge upstream. Highs only in the low 50s east to low 60s west can be expected, along with some cool temps Wednesday night.
146 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020 The open trough aloft moving east of the Rockies across the southern and Central High Plains region this afternoon will continue east over the southern plains states tonight. Short wave ridging will follow over the central high plains region and central Plains states on Tuesday into early Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system moving through northwest U. Ahead of that cold front, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower to middle 70s. As weak short wave activity lifts out along the southwest flow ahead of the upper low complex and the front moves through the area Wednesday, there will be a chance of light rain mainly north of Interstate 70.
414 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Showers will decrease in coverage today as low pressure moves off the New England coast. Closed low currently dropping into central New York. Much greater coverage of showers across eastern New York state ahead of the low with only a few showers across western New York. The low will continue to gradually fill as it drifts toward the New York coast today. Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in most locations. Most locations will remain dry tonight, with just a few isolated to widely scattered showers possible near a weak mid level trough axis which will be the remnants of the weakening closed low. Lows will drop into the lower 30s in most locations, with mid to upper 20s for the North Country.
Could still see some upslope northeast flow freezing drizzle and drizzle today in the north central areas which ends this evening, otherwise this is pretty much it. Low-level easterly flow will keep some cooler air over the region and ample cloud cover. As we progress through the mid/end of the week, warm air advection building across the central/northern Plains will pivot across the region, allowing the upper-level ridge in between the cutoff lows on either side of the Upper Great Lakes.
104 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Weak inland low pressure will dissipate tonight. Meanwhile low pressure well east of Nantucket will strengthen through Tuesday while moving very slowly east.
Could still see some upslope northeast flow freezing drizzle and drizzle today in the north central areas which ends this evening, otherwise this is pretty much it.
Wednesday starts with upper ridging building in overhead. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada down the Mississippi River Valley will advance east into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to clear skies from west to east, but with winds from the north on the east side of the high, high temperatures will be limited to the 50s. The ridging takes its time moving east.
and Wednesday Low level cold advection and mostly cloudy skies will result in a cooler day today than yesterday. Lows will be close to freezing where the ground is bare, and in the 20s where there is still snow cover.
A stronger onshore push midweek will bring slightly cooler weather and a return of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog over coastal and valleys areas.
Low pressure well east of Nantucket will strengthen while moving very slowly east.
349 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a front running from the Tennessee Valley back into the northern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will continue as high pressure remains over the Midwest. Clouds coming off Lake Michigan are expected to result in cooler temperatures than yesterday. Wednesday Upper-level ridging and split flow will lead to quiet weather for the next few days.
Otherwise, clouds should be maintained with low level moisture under a temperature inversion, and a broad low-mid level trough.
High pressure will return for the second half of the week with dry weather and warming temperatures. Surface analysis late this morning shows low pressure in place across the deep south. High pressure was in place across Ontario. The low pressure system to the south is expected o drift farther east as the day progresses. Split flow regime aloft will develop across much of the country with a deep upper low positioned over western Canada.
Surface analysis charts show a low pressure center over west-central MS with the associated warm front draped across central MS and central AL which is contributing to the rain that we will continue to see over the region for the next 12 hours or so. Temperatures are currently in the low 50s with cloudy skies across the area. Light to moderate rain will persist through the late afternoon/early evening as the eastern ridge slowly weakens and moves east with the low tracking to the south of the Mid-South through central MS, AL, and GA.
A upper level trough will move east across the Ohio valley today and tonight before high pressure settles east into the region, remaining in place through the end of the week. What remains is a weak area of low pressure which will drift southward today across Pennsylvania. Another mid level wave in the 500 mb flow will also move across the lower Ohio Valley.
414 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Early this morning, a low pressure system and attendant cold front move through the region, with convection along the boundary early this morning. Storms will continue through the early morning, and most of the storms should have exited the region by mid morning, though some lingering sprinkles may remain, particularly in the north closer to the upper level low/cyclonic flow.
Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. Gentle to moderate south breezes today will turn west overnight in advance of a weakening cold front.
The setup is similar today with a segment of the upper level trough lingering over Lower Michigan to provide some weak vertical motion support. Daytime warming on the last day of March does the rest by generating weak instability within the low levels that show steeper lapse rate and a moist low level profile in models soundings. This process will delay the arrival of upper ridging which promises to bring improved conditions late in the week.
Warmer temperatures today through the weekend despite plenty of high cloud cover today into Wednesday.
534 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 A low pressure system will cross the area this afternoon and will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.
640 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front making their way through the region this morning. A deepening low pressure system resulting in gusty winds and shear invof the storms. Gusty winds will continue through the day with MVFR cigs as the low is slow to clear the region aloft. Early this morning, a low pressure system and attendant cold front move through the region, with convection along the boundary early this morning. Storms will continue through the early morning, and most of the storms should have exited the region by mid morning, though some lingering sprinkles may remain, particularly in the north closer to the upper level low/cyclonic flow.
626 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest over the next few days bringing dry conditions. Temperatures should be a little cooler today, and then slowly warm through the rest of the week.
307 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Water vapor imagery shows the trough over the Pacific NW with the jet rounding out the base just to the north of the state. The subsident side of the jet will clip the northern and central portions of the state bringing enough stability for a weak mountain wave to form and increased winds to the high country. Current model cross sections show component along winds with values in the 50 to 55 kt range bringing winds of 60 mph across the higher passes and mountain ridges. These increased winds will push down into the lower foothills with gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible. For Wednesday, Colorado will be under a moderate southwest flow pattern with a large, broad upper trof carved out across the Northwest portions of the United States, including the Northern Rockies.
MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail early in the period as a an upper level trough axis clears the area. /Issued 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/ Early morning water vapor imagery detects an upper cyclone along the KS/OK border, and precipitation has expanded in coverage over northeast OK as moisture wraps around this system. The upper low and associated precipitation will shift quickly east this morning, with rainfall tapering off by mid/late morning.
A chilly and quiet night is in store as high pressure begins to move into the Tennessee Valley. Lows will be in the mid 30s for most of the area, but some isolated areas in the low 30s aren't out of the question. A low pressure center moving eastward across the deep south is pushing moisture up and over a warm front and into Middle Tennessee this morning, with a broad area of rain set to soak the mid state for much of the day. Expect an occluded front co-located with the upper trough to swing across the region around midday, as ceilings continue to lower from VFR to MVFR to IFR for a few hours.
The lower elevations could see rain initially before switching to snow as the temperatures drop. Recent model trends have shifted the location of the low southeast from what have been seeing the last couple days which shifts the heaviest snow into South Dakota. High temps will be in the low 40s near Livingston, warming to the upper 50s along the ND/SD border.
A cold front finished moving across the region last night and has left the Northern Rockies under the influence of a much cooler air mass. This pattern will continue for the rest of the week basically and shows no signs of abating as yet another dynamic low pressure system is looking more likely for this weekend. A cold front yesterday and last night has ushered in a cool, troughing pattern over the region and lowered snow levels.
) A dry atmosphere will combine with light wind to enhance radiational cooling tonight, result in cooler conditions.
Rain chances through early evening persist near zero, but an approaching cold front may offer temporary relief tonight to the rain free conditions. Into this evening, a cold front will approach the area, increasing clouds and the chance for VCSH after 00Z. (modified previous) Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will increase to 15 to 20 knots offshore late this afternoon as gradient tightens ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
A cold front will begin moving across the state on Wednesday, with much cooler airmass behind it. As the period begins Wednesday evening, an upper level low will be positioned across the border of Canada's central Alberta and Saskatchewan Provinces.
908 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 The day is starting off warm and muggy with increasing clouds ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through Florida later tonight into early Wednesday morning. A stray storm is also possible in the vicinity of the cold front. VFR conditions with gusty SW winds will prevail through the day ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region later tonight. High pressure builds in late Wed then slides east.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a front running from the Tennessee Valley back into the northern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will continue as high pressure remains over the Midwest. Clouds coming off Lake Michigan are expected to result in cooler temperatures than yesterday. Wednesday Upper-level ridging and split flow will lead to quiet weather for the next few days.
Broad westerly flow will keep moist flow over the Pacific Northwest, as a trough deepens through Wednesday. The axis of the trough will then move eastward later Wednesday.
Surface analysis revealed the center of the Low pressure system down near Birmingham, AL and continuing to move east- northeast. Wednesday starts with upper ridging building in overhead. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada down the Mississippi River Valley will advance east into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to clear skies from west to east, but with winds from the north on the east side of the high, high temperatures will be limited to the 50s. The ridging takes its time moving east.
High pressure will result in dry weather through the latter half of the week. With 850 mb temperatures just below freezing, some snow is possible in the highest elevations of Tucker and Garrett counties as the boundary layer cools after sunset, though any accumulation should be light. Precipitation chances should diminish Wednesday as the trough exits.