Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 923 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ 9 PM surface map showed a 1028mb pressure ridge centered over the MO bootheel, resulting in light winds across the Midsouth. /issued 307 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ The trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually move east over the next 24-36 hours. Skies have cleared out nicely today with afternoon temperatures topping out in the low/mid 50s. The approaching trough, currently over the northern Rockies, will dig aggressively as it moves into the Plains and phases with a strong subtropical jet propagating across Mexico. Southeast winds of 25-30 kts on the eastern flank of the cyclone will advect Gulf moisture over the top of the cooler surface air mass.
923 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 9 PM surface map showed a 1028mb pressure ridge centered over the MO bootheel, resulting in light winds across the Midsouth. /issued 307 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ The trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually move east over the next 24-36 hours. Skies have cleared out nicely today with afternoon temperatures topping out in the low/mid 50s. The approaching trough, currently over the northern Rockies, will dig aggressively as it moves into the Plains and phases with a strong subtropical jet propagating across Mexico. Southeast winds of 25-30 kts on the eastern flank of the cyclone will advect Gulf moisture over the top of the cooler surface air mass.
Showers have ended across NE sections as midlevel warming and subsidence occur with a building ridge and departing trough. In the low levels, a NW flow continues to provide cold advection, and moisture remains dammed against the western slopes of the mountains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 33 46 34 44 / 0 0 60 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 29 45 33 41 / 0 0 20 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 45 29 45 32 41 / 0 0 20 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 26 47 32 40 / 0 0 10 50 60.
Low clouds and ceilings will persist through Wednesday morning in advance of a cold front moving across the area. A cold front will then bring chances for scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms later Wednesday afternoon, as well as a westerly wind shift behind the front. /issued 253 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The most significant event during this portion of the forecast will be the approach and Wednesday passage of a cold front.
High pressure over the weekend. With air temperatures largely at or just above freezing and ground temperatures still largely above freezing, am not currently expecting any widespread impacts for the morning commute across much of the Lowlands.
With the inversion above the surface, freezing sprinkles are also possible, but again are highly unlikely with the lack of a deep-layer moisture.
Expect highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s today with lows win the 40s, warmer than this morning with the easterly winds and increasing clouds.
will extend a ridge southeast from the Carolina coast out east of the Bahamas. High pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will support moderate north-northeast breezes overnight across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
Winds will increase later Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Orphaned mid-level low will continue its southward track through the central Great Lakes today, eventually merging with a broad North Atlantic trough.
243 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Clouds off to the northeast creeping their way southwestward towards the mid state this morning, but the clear skies and cold temps allowing for some freezing fog to develop especially near bodies of water. Satellite/obs showing some freezing fog along the Cumberland River east of Nashville and around other lakes/river east of I-65. Conditions will be dry today and tonight before the Plains trough moves east towards the area overnight. Models continue to track the upper low slightly further north, but still along the TN/AL border by this evening.
1053 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Unseasonably warm today followed by a cold front with rain chances (mainly eastern Oklahoma) tomorrow. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma before sunrise tomorrow morning, clearing most of the state by noon.
The upper low will track to the east, south of the Red River tonight with a northward trough extension into southeast KS.
A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north through Wednesday. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend. Temperatures across the area continue to hover near freezing. At the surface, a ridge builds slowly from the west and north through the period. These low clouds will tend to be warmer than -10C and thus too warm to support ice nucleation and snow production. Thus, the potential of drizzle or freezing drizzle through Wednesday night appears to be minimal.
1038 PM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 An upper level trof is moving across the state, bringing gusty west to northwest winds to much of the area, along with snow in the central mtns and a few showers over other mtn areas and even over mainly the northeast and east central CO plains. Tonight the upper trof is forecast to slowly move southeastward over the state, exiting the area Wed morning. The far southeast plains is expected to see gusty northerly winds through Wed, where there will still be a relatively strong gradient on the back side of the exiting upper trof. Wed afternoon an upper ridge will be pushing into western CO. Dry weather is expected on Wed and temps will be cooler.
350 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure southeast of the region, with inverted trough stretching north through eastern portions of NE and SD. Upper level analysis shows the trough very slowly shifting east of the region. Forecast soundings support some potential for light freezing drizzle as well over south central SD late tonight. Clouds will increase from the west across the rest of the area on Thursday as the next upper trough approaches.
/issued 340 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ Ridge over us continues to move east which brings in the next system. A trough will dig in over the southern plains. The low pressure will track south of our area bringing in rain for the area. A deep layer of dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere will make it difficult for showers to reach the ground before 12z.
(Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough swinging across the Texas Panhandle. As of 3 AM the associated cold front is dropping southward across the South Plains and Permian Basin, with gusty northerly winds occurring behind the front. Otherwise, expect much cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon behind the front.
A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures.
625 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Dry high pressure will build in from the west today into Thursday.
The mid-level trough/low will swing over Texas today pushing the associated cold front into deep south Texas late this afternoon. The cold front is expected to reach the northern Ranchlands around noon and off the lower Texas coast just after sunset this evening. The frontal boundary will provide a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern portions of the CWA and the lower Texas coastal waters later this morning into the afternoon.
However, with large-scale subsidence situated overhead, forecast soundings keep a stout inversion in place with the low-level moisture trapped below it throughout the day. Ultimately decided to throw in some patchy fog for the time being due to the continued abundance of moisture stuck in the low-levels.
The lowest levels of the atmosphere will still be somewhat dry, so it may take a little time to moisten up the column enough to get precipitation to reach the ground. A north wind at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will be common through today behind a deepening upper level trough moving into north Texas.
409 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Precipitation expectations remain optimistic as satellite imagery depicts an elongated low pressure along a negatively tilted axis through OK, KS, and NE. Southerly midlevel flow has kept temperatures above freezing diminishing concerns for winter precipitation. Models show a few waves passing through our area, but the lack of moisture and surface ridging means minimal impacts outside of some chilly windy days. VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate into the MVFR category on Wednesday as upper trough moves into the area.
Two more cold fronts are on the way and will affect the northern Rockies through the end of the week.
324 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 High pressure ridge will build into Colorado today and tonight with a moderate northerly flow aloft. The ridge will bring in a drier and more subsident airmass today. The coldest air with the departing trof will be over Colorado early this morning then gradual warm air advection as 700mb temperatures climb from -10c this morning to - 5c by this evening. Temperatures will be overall cooler today behind yesterday's cold front but afternoon temperatures expected right around seasonal normals. With the departing trof there will still be some gusty northwest winds over the northeast plains through early afternoon with speeds up to 25 mph. The axis of a ridge aloft will move across our forecast area Thursday morning leading to dry conditions and mild temperatures during the day.
Given the erosion of the ridge along the Gulf, the orientation of the return flow remains a little more southeasterly than southerly. A stacked low pressure system swinging through the Southeast U.
The band will attempt to develop eastward across the southern third of the region on Thursday as the upper low passes by to our south. Much of the MOS low temperatures guidance for tonight is now below freezing, but the 00Z GFS and ECMWF ensemble probabilities of below freezing temperatures continue to be virtually nil throughout the event. Therefore,decided to use a mix of the warmer ConsShort hourly temperature guidance with the NBM to keep temperatures at or above freezing. Even if some locations in the Ozark Foothills do drop to freezing, the warm air yesterday and expected again today should keep road surfaces warm enough to prevent any travel problems, especially with the lesser QPF now expected.
An upper level trough over the southern plains will move eastward today, pushing a deck of cirrus clouds out in front of it into the local area. A high pressure system located in the SE US will shift eastward throughout today, causing our local winds to veer to the NE this afternoon.
601 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough swinging across the Texas Panhandle. As of 3 AM the associated cold front is dropping southward across the South Plains and Permian Basin, with gusty northerly winds occurring behind the front. Otherwise, expect much cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon behind the front.
Highs today will be mildest near the lake and bay and coolest in the higher terrain to the west.
A cold front pushed through the area overnight leaving a northerly wind at all TAF sites. /issued 302 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ A mid level trough is currently moving over the TX panhandle and an associated cold front is sweeping through our region this morning.
335 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 An upper level wave is working its way across the Central Plains today with the associated cold front expected to already be off to our east by day break. Accumulation amounts have continued to trend down, especially given the slightly warmer temperatures delaying the transition to snow. We'll be in weak northerly flow aloft tomorrow as the trof to the east deepens into a closed low over the Ozarks. Highs are expected to be slightly cooler tomorrow, in the mid 30s across south central NE, and near 40 across north central KS.
Definitely no shortage of larger scale subsidence today w/ ridging aloft. Dry conditions across the entire area today with highs mainly around 35-45 degrees, albeit a bit cooler over Carbon County thanks to existing snow pack. Scattered snow showers are expected across mainly our western & northern zones during the evening & overnight hours as the trough axis moves from west-east across the CWA.
430 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Currently - High pressure extending down the eastern United States and into the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for gentle northerly breezes across the Keys this morning. This cool dry flow is keeping temperatures in the mid 60s with dew points down in the lower 50s. Forecast - The previously mentioned pressure ridge will rotate counter clockwise into the Atlantic over the next couple of days as a mid latitude low develops near Texas and migrates eastwards through the south.
Unfortunately, this area will likely be under thick cloud cover all day and temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing, so icy roads may remain icy through the day. Only a few small areas north of I-94 and east of the MO River are likely experiencing a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation should slowly wane by the morning hours as the trough slides southeast. Western ND should warm up nicely again today under clear skies, while locations east of the MO River will likely struggle to rise above freezing.
A weak upper low has basically stalled over the James valley. Meanwhile, an inverted sfc trof lies just to the west of the James River in NE SD. The surface trof has shown little movement in the last couple hours, and will probably just gradually fall apart today as the upper low gradually fills. Roads have already been reported slick over parts of the region due to fzdz, but mainly over the Coteau where sfc temperatures have been right around freezing.
452 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 As the short term period begins, an upper level ridge is in place over the southeastern CONUS and translating eastward. With the ridge axis still to the east of Georgia, northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the forecast area. With the center of the low positioned towards the far southern tier of the forecast area, much of north and central Georgia will be on the cool side of the system (highs across north Georgia will struggle to get out of the 40s), leading to a chilly rain. Temperatures are moreover expected to cool to near freezing in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia during the late afternoon hours on Thursday.
930 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 It's another sunny and cool morning across west central and southwest Florida as high pressure over the southeast U. High pressure ridging in from the north will produce northeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern gulf waters through the day. Winds will shift to the east and then southeast by Thursday as the high pressure moves eastward. A weak cold front approaches the area Thursday evening bringing southerly winds and a slight chance of showers over the gulf waters. High pressure will build in once again by the end of the week producing pleasant weather and northwest winds around 15 knots over the eastern gulf waters.
High pressure building into the region today will bring drier conditions, above normal temperatures, and another round of gusty southwesterly winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
An upper level wave is working its way across the Central Plains today with the associated cold front expected to already be off to our east by day break. Accumulation amounts have continued to trend down, especially given the slightly warmer temperatures delaying the transition to snow. We'll be in weak northerly flow aloft tomorrow as the trof to the east deepens into a closed low over the Ozarks. Highs are expected to be slightly cooler tomorrow, in the mid 30s across south central NE, and near 40 across north central KS.
Expect some patchy freezing fog to form as a result with temperatures remaining or dropping into the mid to upper 20s through daybreak. A secondary surface/upper low still forms in most guidance as this system pushes from southeastern Alabama into Georgia Thursday into Thursday night.
942 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Dry high pressure will build in from the west through Thursday.
The mid and upper trof will be a bit more agressive in digging southward today before a deeper closed low forms and tracks eastward along the Texas Red River this evening. Loss of moisture/cloud ice aloft on the western side of the mid/upper trof may support some drizzle along/just behind the inverted surface trof across central Kansas late tonight. Temperatures near freezing toward dawn could then result in patchy freezing precip though little more than a trace is expected.
High pressure and dry weather finally enters the region on Thursday and continues through the weekend. Also, can't rule out some pockets of drizzle or even freezing drizzle across the area, but just not confident enough to include in the forecast for today at this time. The low level moisture will start to get scoured out later tonight as high pressure begins to build in from Canada. Clouds may still linger across much of the area south to southeast of the lakes through the night, and this will likely keep low temperatures still in the mid to upper 20s in most places, but where skies can start to clear, expect lows in the lower 20s and even teens.
Impacts and concerns in the short term involve this mornings inverted trough and weakening system affecting portions of southeastern ND. Thursday is expected to see high pressure build into the area from the east with better changes for clearing skies on the MN side of the FA.
340 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Ridge over us continues to move east which brings in the next system. A trough will dig in over the southern plains. The low pressure will track south of our area bringing in rain for the area.
Low clouds and ceilings are expected to persist through late this morning in advance of a cold front moving across the area. The mid-level trough/low will swing over Texas today pushing the associated cold front into deep south Texas late this afternoon. The cold front is expected to reach the northern Ranchlands around noon and off the lower Texas coast just after sunset this evening. The frontal boundary will provide a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern portions of the CWA and the lower Texas coastal waters later this morning into the afternoon.
A warm front will lift through the Northland this morning and then stall out just east of the Minnesota Arrowhead over Lake Superior as it runs into strong high pressure centered over James Bay. Low pressure in the Missouri Valley will spread precipitation over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, but the high pressure to the northeast will keep the Northland dry. Confidence is this system is further reduced by the blocking pattern in place as well. High pressure will prevail through the forecast period resulting in winds of 5 to 10 knots and waves of two feet or less.
Currently we have a developing REX BLOCK (an upper high north of an upper low). As a result Canadian High pressure builds southward into Michigan over the next 24 hours at remains in place through the weekend.
609 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 MVFR stratus will persist across the area during this forecast period with light northwest flow veering to the north as high pressure centered well to the north slowly builds south into the Great Lakes. Orphaned mid-level low will continue its southward track through the central Great Lakes today, eventually merging with a broad North Atlantic trough. While a PV anomaly spins northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday guiding a stacked low toward the Atlantic, the strongest jet dynamics reside well to the south (over the southeastern states).
This activity will diminish as we start the workday with a weak ridge of high pressure still on track to build overhead this afternoon. Daytime highs will run 2 to 6 degrees below normal for the majority of the forecast area in the wake of yesterday's cold front. High and some midlevel clouds will begin to pass overhead this evening as the ridge is deflected eastward in response to the next Pacific trough moving onshore.
Occluded low pressure south of Yarmouth, NS is nearly in the same spot it was this time yesterday morning and expect this feature to only creep slowly east into Thursday. While I can't rule out a stray flurry or a brief bout of very light freezing drizzle about anywhere at any time, scant coverage warrants no mention in the zone-averaged forecast for tonight into Thursday.
Another round of low stratus and fog with the east flow advecting it westward, while mid and high level clouds swirl in from the southwest on nose of the upstream trof's associated baroclinic leaf seen nicely on the latest water vapor loop with a fetch off the southwest Baja. Will side with cooler of guidance and 30-40 percentile of upper 20s to lower 30s for much of the area, although southeast mixing winds and temporary early afternoon stratus thinning may allow for some mid to upper 30s in spots especially southwest. Fog and low stratus again the story locally, as a developing cyclone acrs the southern plains gyrates toward the lower MS RVR Valley by Thu morning. If clouds/stratus maintain, lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s.
/Issued 452 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021/ As the short term period begins, an upper level ridge is in place over the southeastern CONUS and translating eastward. With the ridge axis still to the east of Georgia, northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the forecast area. With the center of the low positioned towards the far southern tier of the forecast area, much of north and central Georgia will be on the cool side of the system (highs across north Georgia will struggle to get out of the 40s), leading to a chilly rain. Temperatures are moreover expected to cool to near freezing in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia during the late afternoon hours on Thursday.
303 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 High pressure building into the region today will bring drier conditions, above normal temperatures, and another round of gusty southwesterly winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
405 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Upper trough will shift to the east today, but will be slow to completely exit the region. Have noted some light returns on radar over the eastern plains but with drier air quickly moving in and with cloud bases mainly on the higher side, don't think any precip is making it to the ground.
947 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. Added drizzle and freezing drizzle, depending on surface temperatures at given location and time.
300 AM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure southeast of the region, with inverted trough stretching north through eastern portions of NE and SD. Upper level analysis shows the trough very slowly shifting east of the region. Forecast soundings support some potential for light freezing drizzle as well over south central SD late tonight. Clouds will increase from the west across the rest of the area on Thursday as the next upper trough approaches.
341 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Impacts and concerns in the short term involve this mornings inverted trough and weakening system affecting portions of southeastern ND. Thursday is expected to see high pressure build into the area from the east with better changes for clearing skies on the MN side of the FA.