Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will bring Gulf moisture into the Ozarks through today as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move into the Ozarks overnight tonight into early Saturday morning with precipitation expected across the region in advance of the front. THe cold front will move through the region during the morning hours Saturday and will move south into Arkansas by early in the afternoon.
/ISSUED / Upper ridging over the Gulf and troughing in the lee of the Rockies will keep the moist southerly flow in place today. Rain chances remain in the forecast and increase across the north as upper trough swings out through the Plains Saturday.
Temperatures will remain very warm, but likely 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday. this will put highs in the lower to mid 90s for the valleys/basins with 80s in the mountains. Tonight is expected to be slightly cooler than recent nights under clear skies and decreasing winds.
540 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Current radar Mosaic and surface obs show the next cold front and associated upper level trough moving southward into northern Wyoming early this morning. expect this cold front to start pushing into Converse county. Short range and high res models in disagreement with the extent and intensity of precipitation as deeper convection forms just along the cold front this afternoon. shows temperatures above freezing through early Saturday morning. Will brief the day shift on this hazard but decided against a Hard Freeze Watch since it looks like more of a threat of frost with temperatures hovering within a degree or two of freezing in most locations.
Expect widespread convection to persist over the Big Bend region into the Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon.
High pressure ridge at the low to mid levels is now located just south of the area.
The tail end of a trough accompanied by light rain will move south across the area late tonight through Thursday night. Ridging then builds in behind this trough for the weekend as low pressure deepens over the eastern Pacific.
A dry cold front is expected to arrive near 12Z Thursday morning.
558 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers to South Florida through the day today. Surface analysis indicates a weak cold front draped across south central Florida. High temperatures are forecast to max out in the low 80s, around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. As the front sweeps over the region tonight, cooler and drier air will filter in from the northwest.
401 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Have an upper low along the OR coast that will bring a change in the weather.
/28/ A cold front has pushed through the region, ushering in northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures are about 8 to 12 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday. Skies will remain cloudy through much of the day as the region stays under zonal flow aloft/broad troughing. Cold air advection will be in full force behind the cold front and temperatures will be below normal across the area. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 40s across the north and mid 50s in the south(where the colder air will lag). As skies gradually clear through the evening, and winds decrease, overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s north of I-20 and mid 30s to the south.
406 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 A cold front has pushed through the region, ushering in northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures are about 8 to 12 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday. Skies will remain cloudy through much of the day as the region stays under zonal flow aloft/broad troughing. Cold air advection will be in full force behind the cold front and temperatures will be below normal across the area. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 40s across the north and mid 50s in the south(where the colder air will lag). As skies gradually clear through the evening, and winds decrease, overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s north of I-20 and mid 30s to the south.
634 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area today allowing colder and drier air into the region. Moisture will begin returning to the area Thursday as low pressure begins developing in the far western Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 245 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Weather map shows cold front now across the Gulf just south of the 60nm coastal waters boundary.
Some clearing is starting to occur out west at TYR with some mid and high clouds above the low stratus. /issued 433 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ The cold front that ushered in cooler air last night has moved through the region this morning, leaving low clouds across most of the region. Predawn temperatures have fallen into the 30s across our northwest zones as cold air advection remains very strong in the wake of the cold front even with cloud cover and strong post frontal winds.
Upper level trough is moving onto the southern Oregon coast this morning. A broad swath of light to moderate snow has moved over the area and is expected to continue throughout the day as a warm front remains stalled along the Nevada border. The trough will begin to weaken this afternoon as it starts to move inland off the Oregon coast and tracks over southeast Oregon and southern Idaho this evening.
Low clouds and visibilities on the rise as the cold front has pushed southward over the northern gulf mixing things out this morning. A dry cold front near the coast this morning will continue to push southeastward and over the Gulf. cool trough will remain anchored over the region allowing mid and high level cloud cover to continue to stream across the north central Gulf region. Today's high temperatures will be considerably cooler than what we've experience the past few days. Tonight's lows should fall into the low to mid 30s and upper 30s to low 40s near the coast.
625 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Drier air pushed out the last of the low level clouds a few hours ago as high pressure nosed it's way southward into the region.
An anticipated cold front has arrived, alleviating fog conditions at the regional airports as surface winds become moderate northeast. Just above the deck, however, onshore winds from the southeast will continue to bring moisture ashore, and the column in the low levels will saturate, resulting in mainly MVFR ceilings today, and possibly IFR ceilings tonight. Some dense fog will persist for the lower valley through the early daylight hours until the combination of moderate northeast winds, rising temperatures, and falling dew points opens up space between the temp and dew point profiles. Skies will remain cloudy with low temperatures from the lower 50s to near 60 tonight and high temps on Thurs back into the 70s as winds veer to east and then southeast to south.
Expect periods of sun and warmer temperatures on Wednesday.
/issued 401 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Have an upper low along the OR coast that will bring a change in the weather.
542 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 Currently - A midlatitude low lifting northeastward into northeastern Canada is trailing a trough along the Atlantic coast and into Florida. This weak trough is resulting in slight south to southwest breezes across the area. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the weak trough in the area will slip eastwards. Well above normal conditions will persist through the next several days, but will trend subtly downwards due to the cooler flow. Meanwhile, rain chances will remain at least a low chance today and tonight as the remnants of an old cold front, and associated moisture and shower activity, move across the area.
611 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 MVFR cigs this morning will scatter out by this afternoon as cooler, drier air works into the area.
The main core of the arctic high pressure was anchored over Montana and extends through the Central Plains. Despite sunshine for a while, continued CAA on brisk NW winds won't allow for a lot of recovery on temps, with highs generally ranging from around 10 degs far north with the light snow cover to the lower 20s south.
Turning brisk and colder today behind cold front with snow showers becoming focused downwind of Lake Erie across the perennial Northwest PA snowbelt.
Another arctic cold front will move down the Plains tonight and should reach the Metroplex TAF sites 15-16z Thursday. The clouds have kept temperatures from rapidly falling overnight despite the low level cold air advection.
433 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 The cold front that ushered in cooler air last night has moved through the region this morning, leaving low clouds across most of the region. Predawn temperatures have fallen into the 30s across our northwest zones as cold air advection remains very strong in the wake of the cold front even with cloud cover and strong post frontal winds.
540 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Arctic high pressure will continue to build into central and southeast Illinois today. Upper-level troffing continues to dig across the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region through the period. A weak impulse/110 kt 300 MB jet streak will round the base of this digging trof passing through the forecast area later tonight into Thursday. Area of light snow will quickly streak southeast Thursday morning, with the highest chances south of I-70. Much of the latter part of the week into the weekend will be quiet, as high pressure drifts across the area.
The low pressure trough extending from near Hudson Bay to the Oregon Coast will drop slowly south through Thursday morning, taking any additional snow with it. snow should accumulate an additional 1 to 3 inches in the lower Snake Plain and the Eastern Magic Valley before this is done. An additional 3 to 5 inches is expected in the lower elevations of the South Central and Caribou Highlands, including Bear Lake.
955 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 The cold front that pushed through last night has cleared the coast, as indicated on visible imagery. Therefore, lowered both the high and low temperatures a tad. Lows temperatures tonight should be in the low 40s near College Station, and in the low-mid 50s along the Gulf. Forecast soundings are continuing to show saturation filtering back into the lower levels of the atmosphere this evening. A stronger cold front will push off the coast Thursday evening.
Rest of aviation forecast for today looks in good shape with prevailing southwesterly winds around 10 knots with VCSH ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 558 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017/ An approaching cold front will bring showers to South Florida through the day today. Surface analysis indicates a weak cold front draped across south central Florida. High temperatures are forecast to max out in the low 80s, around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. As the front sweeps over the region tonight, cooler and drier air will filter in from the northwest.
504 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 A much cooler start to the day today with the light/moderate CAA persisting across SE TX. POPS should increase/spread inland on Fri into Fri night with the passage of an upper trof (from the NNW) help- ing to enhance lift and the possible development of a weak coas- tal low. along with temps at/below freezing. A stronger cold front will push off the coast Thursday evening.
There will be another boundary (reinforcing front) that will pass down the FL peninsula late today that will provide for drier/cooler air this evening/overnight. Cooler/drier air will filter down the peninsula late today/tonight behind a second reinforcing front with winds light.
Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is draped from north central Florida into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Despite any mid and upper level ascent, plenty of moisture combined with subtle low level confluence associated with the approaching trough will prompt low chance pops which are slightly below both ECS/MAV 12 pop guidance. A weakening cold front will drift southward through tonight. The waters surrounding the Florida Keys are quite warm and with cooler air moving across these waters, we expect some stratus ceilings possibly below 1000 feet between 10 pm and 3 am local standard time.
Secondary cold front will push across the area today. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today but still above normal. West winds 10 to 15 knots will become nw with secondary cold front this afternoon.
421 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 A cold airmass continued to spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning behind the Arctic cold front which moved through yesterday. Scattered high level clouds should allow temperatures for most locations to warm back above the freezing mark with mid 30s to lower 40s forecast from north to south. The main concerns with this forecast continues to reside over the next 48 to 60 hours in response to a wave currently dropping south out of Saskatchewan into Montana with its secondary push of well below seasonal average temperatures and an upper low off the coast of Oregon.
1023 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 A cold front will cross the area through midday. High pressure will build west of the area this afternoon into tonight. An upper level disturbance will pass through the area Thursday and Thursday night, as low pressure develops off the coast.
/Issued 355 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Models have come into better agreement showing a warm front of sorts pushing across WRN areas this afternoon due to a developing lee-side low across SE CO/NE NM. This will be short lived warm-up for the west as a strong short wave diving our of Canada across the nrn Plains and mid-west drives a major cold front back across the area late tonight.
A cold front will move into NE terminals around 15Z Thursday. /issued 401 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Have an upper low along the OR coast that will bring a change in the weather.
/Issued 421 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ A cold airmass continued to spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning behind the Arctic cold front which moved through yesterday. Scattered high level clouds should allow temperatures for most locations to warm back above the freezing mark with mid 30s to lower 40s forecast from north to south. The main concerns with this forecast continues to reside over the next 48 to 60 hours in response to a wave currently dropping south out of Saskatchewan into Montana with its secondary push of well below seasonal average temperatures and an upper low off the coast of Oregon.
950 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area today allowing colder and drier air into the region. Moisture will begin returning to the area Thursday as low pressure begins developing in the far western Gulf of Mexico.
Additional light snow accumulations are likely around the high terrain. Patchy freezing fog will also develop overnight within many valleys and low lying areas.
it looks to be dry, as sfc and upper level ridging dynamics build in briefly across the region. The wx pattern as the second half of the upcoming weekend and into the first part of next work week lends itself to the development of breezy sfc conditions and strong low level jet dynamics as a closed upper level low approaches and moves thru the mid state region, the actual track depends on what model you particularly prefer. Already, scattered showers are moving in from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and the showers will gradually become more numerous with ceilings dropping to MVFR during the next several hours.
/Issued 239 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/ Transition to southwesterly upper flow is in full-swing as the upper ridge axis shifts to the east coast.
Easterly flow has continued to transport moisture back west over the divide in southern Colorado the low pressure system we have been dealing with over the past few days heads east through the central plains. We are not expecting any accumulations anywhere but in the higher terrain of the San Juans, where a final 1 to 3 inches will fall before the end of the event Tuesday morning.
1030 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Skies are variably cloudy with temperatures averaging in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. Surface wise, a decaying ridge axis is aligned along the eastern seaboard and extending down the Sunshine State. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and mostly east winds, low temperatures will hold mainly in the lower 70s.
Snow is winding down as the upper low pulls away to the east. however trailing upper trof energy and weak circulation center back across southwest CO. but with temperatures hovering around freezing or slightly warmer. Temperatures tonight will be cooler than the past couple nights. and a return of warmer temperatures.
Gridded forecasts were updated to give a slightly more southward extent to the low clouds before moving them off to the northeast around sunrise. Temperatures trends were adjusted slightly given observations a bit cooler and in line with the HRRR.
929 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Low pressure will track out of the Plains towards southern Lake Michigan by Tuesday morning lifting a warm front north across the area. The low will drift towards the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday evening with a weak cold front shifting east behind it.
/issued 341 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Latest surface analysis indicates a weak cold front draped across the central portions of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night as another weak cold front approaches the area.
638 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday. The main event will occur after midnight, as a strong push of isentropic lift arrives with the warm front, bringing more widespread rain.
723 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday.
Latest water vapor loop was showing the intense upper level low continuing to spin to the northeast. This closed low is showing signs of blocking the upper level ridge from building into the Rockies and slowing down the erosion of the cloud cover and subsidence.
800 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Deep layered ridging over the region will maintain mild and dry conditions across the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight.
A low pressure system moving ENE through the upper Midwest will drag a cool front through the area Tues.
The Plains low pressure system will shift steadily northeast across the Great Lakes into Southeastern Canada. Would expect that as the upper system approaches, some cross terrain flow would help to suppress some of the lower ceilings that would naturally form absent the Southern Appalachians. Therefore, tried to have lots of vfr flight weather with a strengthening southerly component to the low level flow.
A cold front will push south across west central Texas tonight, reaching KABI by 05Z and reaching our southern terminals of KSOA and KJCT 09Z- 10Z. /issued 317 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this evening and through the I-10 corridor midnight. While no rain is expected tonight, an upper low moving east into the El Paso region Tuesday, will bring lift and moisture over the front. Went closer to the cooler GFS MOS guidance temperatures Tuesday given cloudy skies and rainfall. 04 (Tuesday Night through next Monday) A northeasterly moving upper low over central New Mexico Tuesday night will continue the southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
High pressure ridge axis north of the area will keep surface winds light out of the E/SE and skies will be mostly clear.
With temperatures in the lower to mid 30s across the forecast area today, much melting has occurred, which has helped most major roadways to become clear with only areas of either wet or icy conditions remaining. Expect some refreezing overnight as temperatures drop into the lower 20s and teens, but do not expect any additional precipitation from this point on as the storm system continues to move away from the central high plains region and towards the upper midwest. Much of the CWA is transitioned to snow where precipitation is falling with occasional reports of mixed sleet and freezing rain. Temperatures will hover in the lower 30s for the most part with upper 20s in the northwestern portions of the CWA.
Closed upper low responsible for this weekend's ice and rain is currently rotating over central Kansas this afternoon. As the upper low passes, residual low stratus and some patchy fog continues through the evening. Weak winds however and little change in airmass with respect to temps brings highs Tuesday above freezing form the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Expect as the low-level jet kicks up, Evansville radar now showing 50 knot southerly winds at 2,000 feet, we will see a few more ticks with elevated instability. Some of the high-res models are painting a third band over southern Indiana by daybreak as well. A low pressure system moving ENE through the upper Midwest will drag a cool front through the area Tues.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge brought in the sunshine today with light winds. The result was a day that was generally warmer than normal, except for the river valleys where there was no wind to scour out the lower layers under the snowpack caused inversion. Tonight a weak disturbance moving into BC from the Gulf of alaska will begin to knock down the ridge, resulting in a Chinook and increasing temperatures.
948 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Area radars showed the main band of showers and thunderstorms, out ahead of a saggy, baggy cold front, was spreading across western parts of the Mid- State this evening. Already, scattered showers are moving in from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and the showers will gradually become more numerous with ceilings dropping to MVFR during the next several hours.
737 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A weak cold front will then cross the region late tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday.
Some of the high-res models are painting a third band over southern Indiana by daybreak as well. A low pressure system moving ENE through the upper Midwest will drag a cool front through the area Tues.
628 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country through midday Tuesday. A low pressure area will move northeast through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
/Issued 230 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ A compact upper cyclone was across northeast KS this afternoon with a well-defined dryslot stretching across southern/eastern OK into southwestern MO.
VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front arrives late tonight/early Tuesday morning, bringing a bout of stratus/fog. /issued 202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off. Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will wander northward.
Still believe the greatest upward motions will occur in the best H50 diffluence region over wrn KY, and that is where the highest rain amounts will be placed. High pressure moving in behind this system will be of Pacific origin, so should stay with above normal temps as we head into Tue/Wed time frame. At the same time, the dominant ridging aloft along eastern Canada/U.
it looks to be dry, as sfc and upper level ridging dynamics build in briefly across the region. The wx pattern as the second half of the upcoming weekend and into the first part of next work week lends itself to the development of breezy sfc conditions and strong low level jet dynamics as a closed upper level low approaches and moves thru the mid state region, the actual track depends on what model you particularly prefer. As the front approaches the region this evening, wind shear may strengthen with the low level jet mainly from 03Z-12Z, but did not put in mention in the TAF just yet. Cigs will lower into the evening and overnight hours as shower activity moistens the low levels.
413 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Another warm day across the forecast area on the western side of high pressure today.