Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
835 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure ridge will strengthen to the North Tonight. Weak coastal troughing is expected through the night, which will provide convergence for continued stratus development, with evening sounding depicting the moist lower level. Winds and seas will increase Tonight as a high pressure ridge builds to the North.
As the attendant surface cyclone moves east from central NE, southeast winds will develop across the Mid-South. This will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night and will begin the poleward transport of low-level moisture. Upper level high pressure covers the region. Expect slightly warmer temps tonight as southerly flow develops in advance of an approaching system. A progressive mid level trough and associated cold front will push into the region later on Wednesday. SSW flow ahead of the system will help temps into the lower 80s just above everywhere.
1036 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Seasonably cool and dry air expected Wednesday as high pressure remains across the area.
Building high pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring dry and warm conditions to the region for the middle of the week.
At 2 pm CDT a warm frontal boundary extended across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. This feature is flattening the h500 ridge and generating low/mid level vertical motion. On Wednesday, the warm frontal boundary will move east through the region allowing a westerly mixing wind.
731 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Seasonably cool and dry air expected Wednesday as high pressure remains across the area.
805 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure holds through Wednesday.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level ridging over the central US, with troughing west. An 850mb warm front-like feature was noted across MT into SD, with a band of showers developing from southwest to north central SD to west central to southeast MN. 700-500mb temperature differences of 20C+ were noted from the high Plains of SD/NE/KS across NE/southern SD and into western IA.
Concur with deterministic output that an upper ridge will gradually approach from the west during the period.
1058 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance The 12Z Models suggest the developing/incoming cold front will be a little slower with its entrance/passage, and our collaborative efforts will reflect that, particularly with regard to POP/WX/Sky.
Despite dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s, an elevated mixed layer has kept convective inhibition well over 100 J/kg per RAP analysis. Precip will likely linger in east central Kansas after sunrise Wednesday, but subsidence behind the trough quickly builds in by late morning. The modified continental airmass moving in should only drop highs back into the low to mid 70s.
907 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Water vapor imagery showing upper trof now across Kansas with a drying and subsident airmass now into Colorado. Trough continues to move east with skies clearing from Denver northward. It looks like precipitation is now mainly over the highest ridges. With that and a little cold advection tonight, there will be a cooler start to the day on Wednesday, so despite the sun it will not get much warmer than today.
The high pressure system that has been sitting over the area the past few days will shift east towards the Atlantic Coast tonight into Wednesday. Expect lows to bottom out in the lower 50s with the excepting of our sheltered valley locations in NE AL and southern middle TN where temps in the mid 40s are possible. Benign weather will continue through Wednesday as 850 mb high pressure system will shift into the Carolinas. This wave outruns a cold front rather quickly and may limit overall extent of precipitation.
1033 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will build over the area through mid week.
Not much change overall in mid and long range guidance with a generally dry pattern of upper ridging.
Boating Conditions Will Deteriorate Tonight through Late Overnight mins expected to be several degrees warmer versus Tue morning lows most areas. This occurring as strong high pressure building down the cost keeps more steady onshore flow through the overnight hours.
VFR conditions expected thru 26/24Z as ridging influences sfc/aloft prevail.
Strong high pressure will result in dry and warm conditions the remainder of the week, with well above normal daytime temperatures for late October.
The longer term concerns remain the development of the western coast trough and ridging ahead of the western CONUS energy with warming over the area early in period. Models continue to show strong trough over the west coast this week.
The forecast soundings then indicate that the lower levels of the atms will start to moisten up a bit tomorrow afternoon possibly lowering the ceilings down a bit. /issued 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): H5 ridge continues to nudge westward into western Mexico, with a weakness in the ridge nudging into the region.
1041 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A short wave low pressure trough in west flow aloft over the area will move from Idaho east across the area tonight bringing showers to much of the west and north mountain areas with isolated evening thunderstorms possible. After the low pressure trough passes tonight. a broad high pressure ridge will move in behind the trough bringing a dry stable air mass to the area.
1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Elevated instability along a warm frontal zone near 850 mb aloft is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from around this Illinois River near Beardstown northwestward this evening. with the warmest temperatures over west central IL only reaching the lower 50s as an approaching low shifts winds to southerly advecting warmer air into the region. Temperatures should bottom out warmer than this morning's lows.
/Issued 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ Dry and mild weather expected to continue over the forecast area through the Short Term forecast period as weak upper ridging crosses the region tonight through the day Wednesday.
A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to central Indiana mainly Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Otherwise high pressure will provide dry conditions. Can't rule out a stray shower farther south, but feel the low levels will be dry enough to prevent rain reaching the ground.
Temperatures have mainly been running a little warmer than last night mainly due to the cloud cover and high dewpoints throughout the area. On Wednesday brief ridging will occur over the area to bring us a dry day with the exception of chances of showers continuing over the coastal range and Western Shasta County.
VFR through the evening with mid to high clouds passing by with a weak upper trough. Elsewhere, still have some vis reductions, but keep at MVFR or VFR thanks to lingering impacts of the higher cloud decks.
A closed low will rotate around the base of the trough. but still expect strong southerly winds inland tonight and tomorrow, particularly over the ridges and in the Shasta Valley. A warm front associated with the low will move over the CWA tonight.
1039 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 The atmosphere will continue to stabilize this evening as ridging builds into the region over the next 24 hours. The ridge will amplify Wednesday bringing sunny skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal once again for the second part of the workweek.
Surface and upper high pressure are the dominate feature over the region.
The surface warm front is splitting the forecast area from southeast to northwest and should continue to lift northward through the evening hours. As the upper system slowly tracks east tonight, the surface front will push through the area as a cold front and help trigger showers and storms late tonight/early tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. The airmass behind the front isn't dramatically cooler but it is drier so the most noticeable difference will be the lower humidity as highs will still be near 70.
The targeted area for the highest rain showers continues to be southern Minnesota with up to an inch or slightly higher amounts in the far south. Band of showers then expands into southern Manitoba ahead of inverted trough, with sfc front and highest rainfall amounts across southern MN. Daytime highs will increase into the mid 50s, about 6 to 8 deg warmer than today, west of the valley while clouds and precip should bring cooler temperatures to the valley and eastern zones.
The weak Pacific cold front pushing south in the wake of this system will act more like a trough axis, as the airmass will not be any colder to the north of it. The initial push of the boundary tonight will fade, leaving a large area of light and variable winds along the initial frontal zone/trough axis. Through the end of the workweek, a large ridge of high pressure will encompass the central CONUS, and this will lead to more warmth. A new lee trough will develop as a southwest polar jet ejects from California into Idaho and western Montana, promoting leeside low development well to our north-northwest.
Ridging both surface and aloft will produce quiet weather conditions and generally light winds.
900 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Fair and warmer weather is expected through Wednesday with patchy night and morning low clouds in the coastal and western valley areas.
A low pressure system will bring rain Wednesday through Wednesday night.
After this system moves away Wednesday evening, a ridge aloft will build over the region.
832 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 The high pressure system that has been sitting over the area the past few days will shift east towards the Atlantic Coast tonight into Wednesday. Expect lows to bottom out in the lower 50s with the excepting of our sheltered valley locations in NE AL and southern middle TN where temps in the mid 40s are possible. Benign weather will continue through Wednesday as 850 mb high pressure system will shift into the Carolinas. This wave outruns a cold front rather quickly and may limit overall extent of precipitation.
Low pressure centered over western Nebraska is forecast to move east through the short term period. This low pressure will be main the weather producer in the short term. That being said, there is a substantial stable layer near the sfc, closer to the track of the low. Hires precip accums range from 1 to 2 inches across the highway 20 corridor.
658 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 The atmosphere will continue to stabilize this evening as ridging builds into the region over the next 24 hours. The ridge will amplify Wednesday bringing sunny skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal once again for the second part of the workweek.
610 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 The atmosphere will continue to stabilize this evening as ridging builds into the region over the next 24 hours. The ridge will amplify Wednesday bringing sunny skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal once again for the second part of the workweek.
/issued 256 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ High pressure centered south of Hudson Bay in Canada extends southward to cover much of the eastern half of the country. Locally, skies are mostly clear with most temperatures in the lower 80s.
722 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A band of low-level moisture trapped under a 4kft inversion associated with a 850-900 hPa ridge axis combined with ample lake- air delta T's and some diurnal influence has allowed scattered showers to persist from near Thunder Bay across much of the NE half of Upper Michigan this afternoon. Low pressure continuing to organize over the central high Plains this afternoon will reach northern Iowa late tonight and far northern Illinois late Wednesday afternoon. Thick cloud cover will likely linger thru much of the day Thur despite the arrival of anti-cyclonic flow, due to the lack of strong mixing, thus temps could struggle to warm beyond the lower to middle 40s.
1000 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday night.
919 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Showers are expected to spread mainly into northern portions of the area tonight and Wednesday as a warm front lifts north into the area.
This activity is focused along a weak surface boundary/trough, tied back to a short wave trough visible on water vapor. The expectation is for this activity to gradually increase over the next few hours and push east and southeast following modest height falls and continued influence from the low level jet. After this system moves away Wednesday evening, a ridge aloft will build over the region.
Ridge of high pressure producing mostly clear sky. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 77 57 76 / 0 0 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 75 55 74 / 0 0 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 44 74 55 74 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 72 47 70 / 0 0 20 30.
Light winds will become gusty from the south during the afternoon before a weak cold front shifts them to the northeast late this evening.
/issued 340 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016/ High pressure centered over ern Canada continues to ridge swd providing a light and somewhat variable flow over the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the cntl CONUS aloft. Highs again will be running several degrees above the seasonal norms as a more onshore flow develops behind the high which is progged to push ewd over the next day or so.
Proton Previous Discussion A weak low pressure trough kicked off some light showers, which are now moving into far eastern and northeastern Montana. The trough and associated showers will be moving out of Montana between 530 pm to 630 pm. Tonight through Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue across eastern Montana. The high pressure ridge will continue to allow weakening disturbance to move over the area.
741 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure holds through Wednesday.
Temperatures should bottom out warmer than this morning's lows.
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will build over the area through mid week.
WV imagery showed this trof from WY-CO-NM. This trof will move thru tonight. The ridge will retrograde to the Rockies in its wake tomorrow with NW flow over the Plains. A warm front will E/SE from this low but there will be no real cool front. Just a trailing trof/dryline near Hwy 283 at 19Z. This trof will cross the fcst area tonight. This has kept temps cooler with MCK at 55F and LXN at 60 at 19Z. forcing associated with the trof is weak. The cap will probably prevent/delay convective initiation long enough for the sfc convergence/trof to be E and S of the fcst area. Aloft: A ridge will dominate over the Cntrl USA which means above to much above normal warmth will cont. Another weaker trof is slated to move thru Mon.
/Issued 702 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ Dry and mild weather expected to continue over the forecast area through the Short Term forecast period as weak upper ridging crosses the region tonight through the day Wednesday.
849 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Upper ridge was in the process of building northward into Montana. with upper level high pressure dominating the weather pattern through period. as ridging continues to build.
512 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Upper ridge axis is bisecting the CONUS, with a weak wave over the rockies pushing some clouds and a few showers through the region. Upper wave will continue pushing eastward through the ridge tonight, with ridge axis rebuilding over the western states. With broad upper ridge in place, mild and dry weather will continue on Wednesday. Broad upper ridge will persist over the western two- thirds of the CONUS through the week, with dry and very mild conditions expected.
VFR conditions expected to continue thru 27/06Z as ridging influences sfc/aloft are expected to continue to prevail.
1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure will build over the area through mid week.
821 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Elevated instability along a warm frontal zone near 850 mb aloft is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from around this Illinois River near Beardstown northwestward this evening. with the warmest temperatures over west central IL only reaching the lower 50s as an approaching low shifts winds to southerly advecting warmer air into the region. Temperatures should bottom out warmer than this morning's lows.
701 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Low pressure will linger in the Maritimes through Wednesday. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern today with generally light winds.
High pressure centered to the north and northeast of the area tonight, mostly clear to clear skies, and light winds should set the stage for valley frost formation or if not, lows near freezing for much of valleys in southeastern KY. 20z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. The cool high to the north and good sunshine yielded temps ranging from the lower 70s south to low 60s north this afternoon. Dewpoints, meanwhile, were able to mix down into the low to mid 30s most places, but many spots did see some 20s. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all bring a developing trough into the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening.
1235 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Showers are expected to spread mainly into northern portions of the area tonight and Wednesday as a warm front lifts north into the area.
806 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure holds through Wednesday.
Upper level high pressure covers the region. Expect slightly warmer temps tonight as southerly flow develops in advance of an approaching system. A progressive mid level trough and associated cold front will push into the region later on Wednesday. SSW flow ahead of the system will help temps into the lower 80s just above everywhere.
Pressure gradient strengthens Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region. Quiet evening weather-wise, as high pressure to the north continues to cause breezy east and northeasterly winds.
Unfortunately, these exiguous rain chances only dwindle throughout the week as the upper ridge builds in from the SW and strengthens over the region.
1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Seasonably cool and dry air expected Wednesday as high pressure remains across the area.
A building subtropical ridge will help to intensify the low level thermal ridge (H850 temps ~ 21 to 22 C) over the forecast over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Small hail will also be possible over the higher terrain. On Wednesday, westerly flow aloft will bring warmer and drier conditions. High temperatures will be a little warmer with lower to mid 90s expected across northeast Colorado.
The upper ridge, while not all that strong as far as heights go, is forecast to stick around through the rest of the week. A mid level thermal ridge stretching from the central Plains south to northern Mexico will also remain in place.
After tonight, the influence of the Westerlies trough will linger in the mid levels as the Easterlies and any sea breeze activity will just not be in the offing soon.
High pressure then settles off the Southeast Coast from mid week into the upcoming weekend.
Look for lows back down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas.
Otherwise low pressure over Southern British Columbia sags some to the south and overhangs into the forecast area resulting in enough increase in instability along with increased presence of minor disturbances rotating around the edges of the low to keep pops in the forecast for afternoon convection.
20Z analysis shows a low pressure center across southeast SD with a weak stationary front extending northeastward into north-central MN and a warm front draped southward through southwest IA into northeast MO. Overall, much of the day should be dry, although it will still be warm and muggy with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s.
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Weak high pressure slowly moving eastward this afternoon. With the moisture being more evenly distributed through the low layers, and the nature of the model depictions of QPF/reflectivity. Cloud cover and southerly winds both contributing to warmer overnight lows than the last few nights, dropping only into the lower 70s.
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Ridging has been the dominant weather story today leading to above normal temperatures - particularly with respect to the min temperatures.
The next low pressure disturbance will then move across the northwest states and northern Rockies Sun-Mon.
INCLUDED VCTS IN KCDS TAF WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS OF CONVECTION FURTHER AWAY FROM CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. To the west, much drier air aloft is starting to work into the western South Plains and temperatures are running 3-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday across portions of the Caprock so adjusted temps upward in some locations there. The ridge that is across South Texas will continue to expand northward through the day resulting in increasing heights and thickness values. This high is still progged to reach peak intensity (595-596 dam at 500 mb) on Wednesday over the Big Bend at which point 700 mb temps soar locally to around 18C, so max temps on Wednesday were nudged up even closer to our heat advisory threshold (105F air temp or heat index value irrespective of low temps).
Still expect overall coverage to be on the low side with rain chances through sunset no higher than 20-30 percent, but any storms that do develop will have the potential to become strong, producing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning.
544 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the forecast area as the short wave trough moves closer to the area. The rainfall has also lowered the temperatures considerably across the area with locations previous in the low 100s dropping into the low 80s.
Gradually deepening upper trough over the northwest states will bring cooling through Wednesday night.
Large elongated area of low pressure situated to the west/northwest across central NE/SD/MN. Dewpoints have risen even higher across the state with some sites around 80 degrees, with the high surface moisture expected to continue to pool ahead of the storms this evening.
Forecast soundings show deep mixing of 30-35 kts at the top of the mixed layer to the sfc, with humidities dropping into the low to mid teens, mainly across southeast Wyoming. Some questions are certainly in play though, namely whether the sfc front from today is pushed far enough east tomorrow due to lee troughing for dry downslope winds to take over the plains.
To the west, much drier air aloft is starting to work into the western South Plains and temperatures are running 3-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday across portions of the Caprock so adjusted temps upward in some locations there. The ridge that is across South Texas will continue to expand northward through the day resulting in increasing heights and thickness values. This high is still progged to reach peak intensity (595-596 dam at 500 mb) on Wednesday over the Big Bend at which point 700 mb temps soar locally to around 18C, so max temps on Wednesday were nudged up even closer to our heat advisory threshold (105F air temp or heat index value irrespective of low temps).
Upper ridge will begin building over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will start climbing back into the mid 90s for highs as the ridge builds in.
With warmer temps aloft forecast, have sided closer to warmer guidance numbers which pushes a good part of the South Plains close to Heat Advisory criteria.
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week with increasing rain chances. Morning soundings upstream show this dry air is situated primarily above 700mb, while the low-levels sampled by the PBZ and ILN soundings reveal copious amounts of moisture. Outside of the possibility of an afternoon shower along the elevated heat source of the ridges Wednesday should remain mostly dry with little to no forcing present.