Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
738 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. with a ridge in the western U. and a ridge off the sern U. The trough will slowly move east to the lower Great Lakes by 00z Fri.
623 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: An isolated shower will remain psbl in the nw until 02Z as a cold front moves into the area. /22/ A trough axis is progged to propagate through the Mississippi River Valley through tonight and into the Ohio Valley tomorrow. A reinforcing cold front is also expected to drop into the area tomorrow bringing another shot of cooler and drier air. Increased high temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow into the low to mid 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. The low-level ridge axis will remain across south Florida while low pressure trough axis through the mid levels extends from the Great Lake region into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This as drier air filters in behind a cold front which was just east of the I-65 corridor. The potent upper trough in IL and southeast MO into AR has produced scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms beneath the cold pocket aloft. Northwest flow will return to the area tomorrow morning, ushering drier and cooler air into the area. High pressure will begin to build in during the day Thursday, keeping dry and cooler conditions over the Valley through the beginning of the weekend.
/issued 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ The cold front that arrived this morning has pushed well south of the forecast area leaving a rather pleasant afternoon across the region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be 8-10 degrees warmer than today as the front rapidly mixes northward through the day and the warm front may provide a focus for storm development late in the afternoon. At the same time, another speed max in the jet stream will approach the region and with slightly weaker northwest flow aloft still in place, storms could fire along the warm front in northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and drift southeast.
While the weather has been dominated by a ridge today, producing quiet weather, that will quickly change. The ensemble guidance still shows things turning more broadly wet as a much deeper trough works into the area.
840 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Broad area of high pressure in firm control across the area. The latest observations have the CWA in northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough over the Midwest.
Otherwise, clouds should clear through the afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through the area. Northwest flow will return to the area tomorrow morning, ushering drier and cooler air into the area. High pressure will begin to build in during the day Thursday, keeping dry and cooler conditions over the Valley through the beginning of the weekend.
The presence of clouds will keep afternoon temperatures slightly cooler than today.
The combination of daytime heating, cool air aloft and a bit of upper level support has helped overcome high pressure to spark a few thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of central South Dakota. Otherwise, the area will stay mostly dry through Thursday night under departing high pressure.
/issued 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ A weak cold front currently situated in eastern Arkansas will move through the area later this afternoon into the evening. The aforementioned cold front should move out of the area should move out of the area by tonight into tomorrow morning. As for tomorrow, a high pressure system will move over the area and promote fantastic weather.
956 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Low pressure will track northeast along a stationary front tonight, then another front will move through Thursday. Drier high pressure will build in for late week before moving east over the weekend. Overnight: A wave of low pressure along the stalled front will move northeast of the area after midnight. Troughing over the eastern half of the U.
An upper level trough was currently traversing the area.
The lower to mid level ridge axis is just a bit to the south. The evenings sounding indicate some drier air through the lower levels and some inhibition. The few showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier just gulf side of the Lower Keys this afternoon has long since dissipated. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate, keeping surface winds light out of the southeast to south. Weak ridging across Keys waters will keep winds light out of the southeast to south.
450 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A sharp late season upper level trough will move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys from now through Thursday.
Northeast Arkansas and portions of West Tennessee may get lucky enough to pick up some rainfall this evening as a cold front sweeps across the area. A weak cold front currently situated in eastern Arkansas will move through the area later this afternoon into the evening. The aforementioned cold front should move out of the area should move out of the area by tonight into tomorrow morning. As for tomorrow, a high pressure system will move over the area and promote fantastic weather.
A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the region this morning with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Over the next 24 hours an upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward across the Ohio Valley toward the northeastern CONUS. Light winds and clear skies tonight will promote radiational cooling with lows ranging from the lower 50s to around 60s.
328 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Upper low noted on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over northeast Illinois will continue to track E/NE out of the region today. While the primary lift associated with the upper low will be well east of Illinois, a spoke of energy pivoting down its back side will provide enough lift to trigger isolated showers across northeast Illinois into north-central Indiana this afternoon. with afternoon readings topping out in the lower 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across portions of West Texas and southeast New Mexico this evening, on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Drier air in the mid and upper levels has moved into the area with upper trough axis over the central Gulf coast. Showers will end by early evening as a cold front and drier air spreads se across the area.
127 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. with a ridge in the western U. and a ridge off the sern U. The trough will slowly move east to the lower Great Lakes by 00z Fri.
Through the day, a longwave trough over the the eastern CONUS will continue to become more negatively tilted. Behind the dissipating boundary, the flow aloft looks to gradually become zonal with high pressure building at the surface to our north.
1046 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite and radar clearly show the deep troughing over the midwest with a large amplitude ridge building into the plains. If an updraft gets strong enough over central Missouri there could be isolated quarter sized hail with the freezing level around 8-9kft, so limited melting time. Once sunset occurs these storms will likely dissipate quickly leaving clear skies overnight as a cooler airmass continues to advect into our area. This cooler airmass could break some record lows tonight with the following records being close: MCI at 47 & St Joseph at 44.
245 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Current surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary sitting across far eastern WY into the Black Hills area, with high pressure to the south of the region. Upper level analysis shows weakening ridge over the Great Basin region, with northwest flow over the northern high Plains. Some warmer air will filter into the area today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the plains, 70s over the Black Hills.
411 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Under partly cloudy skies and light south to southwest winds, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the Florid Keys. A persistent and lengthy western Atlantic ridge extending across South Florida and the Florida Keys will slowly erode and lift northward over the next couple of days.
1235 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Low pressure will track northeast along a stationary front tonight, then another front will move through Thursday. Drier high pressure will build in for late week before moving east over the weekend. The3 wave of low pressure has lifted out of the area to the north, while a trailing cold front is situated near and west of I-95, and reaching the coast by daybreak. Some cooler air will allow for temps to make it down to the mid and upper 60s most communities for lows. Troughing over the eastern half of the U.
414 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A cold front will progress across the region this morning seen in the latest surface analysis, as the base of the 500mb trough axis progresses across the lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. The forecast soundings still show some instability and shear that could lead to some small hail given the sub 8 kft freezing levels advertised. The big news will be well below normal temperatures for a night in June, with valleys seeing minimum temperatures in the low to mid 40s and ridges middle to upper 40s.
Meanwhile, the unseasonably deep 500 mb longwave trough will slowly lift into the Northeast, but it will not be until tomorrow that we see influential height rises. Otherwise, the high will continue to track eastward into the Mid Atlantic tomorrow, which will cause us to see a return of warm air advection. Additionally, flow at 500 mb becomes zonal behind the strong trough.
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Clear skies and cool temperatures were in place overnight across the area as a strong upper trough continues to push off to our east into the Ohio Valley bringing large scale subsidence to the area. Storms that develop over the High Plains could roll into our area late in the evening, however best guess is those storms would miss the area except perhaps the western periphery, as storms should take on a more north/northwesterly track according to model corfidi downshear vectors/bulk shear vectors.
220 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, with another weak cool front over NE TX.
225 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A chilly but sunny start to the day will stay on the cool, but dry side as high pressure works eastward across the Upper Mississippi River valley.
114 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Low pressure will track northeast along a stationary front tonight, then another front will move through Thursday. Drier high pressure will build in for late week before moving east over the weekend. The wave of low pressure has lifted out of the area to the north, while a trailing cold front is situated near and west of I-95, and reaching the coast by daybreak. Some cooler air will allow for temps to make it down to the mid and upper 60s most communities for lows. Troughing over the eastern half of the U.
The ridge of high pressure will begin to deamplify this evening and overnight as a short wave moves inland off the coast of California, while west/northwest flow will carry moisture into the region in the form of high clouds. Expect cloud cover to spread across the region and keep temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight. Little change is expected for high temperatures tomorrow, as the ridge moves overhead. Rivers continue to run fast and high with many forecast to bump back up with the continuation of warmer temperatures. The ridge of high pressure will break down overnight as energy drops down from the northwest. This energy will work on increased moisture every afternoon and evening allowing convection to fire over the higher terrain.
257 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A cold front currently moving across the mid-state will move off the plateau around 12z. an active warm front sets up way up in the OH valley.
This is warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees short of climatological normals for this time of year. Additional storms may continue to develop into the morning as the low-level jet strengthens overhead.
1131 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 An upper level trough was currently traversing the area.
Cools air will continue to filter across the area with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s.
There is northwest flow aloft for the next couple of days as the trough moves to the east of the Mid-South. Upper level ridging begins this weekend and the flow aloft becomes southwest which should allow for some higher temperatures and higher humidity in the area. At the surface there is cool dry high pressure that is building in and will dominate the pattern the next couple of days.
(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The ridge to our west will be flattening as it approaches our area. Initially, on the front side of the approaching weakening ridge, the steering flow will start out as a confluent northwest flow keeping any convection today and tonight in check. Then another ripple in the the then westerly flow will produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the higher cape values Thursday afternoon.
345 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 An upper level trough is centered over the Great Lakes Region with northwest flow over the CWA.
However, heights will be rising today as short wave ridging moves more overhead. Moisture will undergo good recovery today as surface ridging moves east.
Eventually, there is a decent risk that storms which form over the higher terrain of NM this afternoon coalesce into a complex and translate southeastward this evening. /issued 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ The cold front that arrived this morning has pushed well south of the forecast area leaving a rather pleasant afternoon across the region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be 8-10 degrees warmer than today as the front rapidly mixes northward through the day and the warm front may provide a focus for storm development late in the afternoon. At the same time, another speed max in the jet stream will approach the region and with slightly weaker northwest flow aloft still in place, storms could fire along the warm front in northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and drift southeast.
Northeast Arkansas and portions of West Tennessee may get lucky enough to pick up some rainfall this evening as a cold front sweeps across the area. A weak cold front currently situated in eastern Arkansas will move through the area later this afternoon into the evening. The aforementioned cold front should move out of the area by later tonight into tomorrow morning. As for tomorrow, a high pressure system will move over the area and promote fantastic weather.
1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front was roughly along a Pontiac to Taylorville line just before sunset. High pressure in control on Thursday with conditions dry.
329 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 The western upper ridge was beginning to break down per recent water vapor imagery with scattered convection over the northwestern states. The upper trough axis was east of the Mississippi River early this morning with northwest flow continuing locally.
1036 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Broad area of high pressure in firm control across the area. The latest observations have the CWA in northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough over the Midwest.
Look at the previous night, the Missouri Breaks were much warmer than forecasted while low lying locations such as valleys creeks and streams could be up to 10+ degrees cooler. GAH PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A few showers will affect far northeastern Montana this evening into tonight as a ridge continues to shift east into the area. This ridge will bring hot temperatures to the region Thursday afternoon with many locations reaching around 90 degrees.
The chances pops west of the Highway 283 covers the situation well.
322 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will plague the region today with approach and passage of a cold front. Warm, moist advection on the van of an encroaching high-amplitude Midwestern/Great Lakes upper trough continues to fuel showers this morning. Unfortunately, given rapid cooling aloft with a jet streak pulling that parent trough eastward, destabilation is expected to be rapid despite the morning rain. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens. Condition deterioration can be expected today as an advancing cold front spawns additional convection.
1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front and associated spotty thundershowers continue to make progress through the forecast area, and should be out of the area altogether within the next hour or so. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front tonight with diminishing winds, which allows lows to drop into the mid to upper 40s. Models are consistent in showing a subtle weak trough moving out of the central Rockies Thursday night.
A cold front and associated upper level trough move across the region today, ending all precip chances and clearing things out as a drier airmass moves over the area.
329 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Water vapor imagery this morning revealing that the upper flow is trending a bit more progressive over the the CONUS in part to a strong circulation moving ashore over British Columbia displacing and upper ridge, currently situated over the northern Rockies/intermountain west, to the east.
High pressure was already moving into the region and skies were clearing. Looking for cooler and drier air to settle into the area, making for a very pleasant day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today and tonight. Dry weather will continue for the end of the week as high pressure at the surface and somewhat zonal flow aloft will occur.
A crisp and cool morning across MN and western WI as the ridge axis was directly overhead. The combination of the ridge axis moving to our east and full sunshine today, highs will reach the low to mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, an upper low over Hudson Bay will begin to drop south across northwest Ontario. Late in the day, a cold front will drop through northern MN, but may not reach central MN until Friday night.
The upper level trough that brought some showers and storms over the past couple of days is currently moving east through the Ohio River Valley, while an amplified ridge resides over the western U. At the surface, high pressure is working its way east into the area. For today, the high pressure will move its way east across the area allowing for sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the 70s. Friday, the high pressure will move to our east, shifting winds back to the south and allowing for warm air and moisture advection to return. At the surface, the low pressure will take its time working through the region, producing a stationary boundary across MO and KS.
1029 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure will continue to build in from the west today. /Issued 344 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ A cold front and associated upper level trough move across the region today, ending all precip chances and clearing things out as a drier airmass moves over the area.
A cold front currently moving across the mid-state will move off the plateau around 12z. an active warm front sets up way up in the OH valley.
Today Through Friday Night H500 trough will continue to move east away from the state throughout the day, with NW flow setting up in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will settle in which will help support another day or two of drier and cooler air for mid-June across the state. By Friday, as the upper trough continues its eastward path across the northeast US, zonal flow will set up over much of the middle and southern parts of the country.
The lack of deep layer moisture combined with increased subsidence from an upper ridge expanding eastward from Northern Mexico should keep dry weather in place today. The ridge will flatten on Friday, and the flow aloft will become more zonal.
Daytime heating should be enough to break through the lower stable layer, but it will take a more substantial focus to break through the higher stable layer. The Pulley Ridge buoy (42097) in the Southeast Gulf currently has 3-foot seas, so included an increase in seas over the deep Gulf waters in the morning CWF update. A Western Atlantic ridge axis will persist in the Straits of Florida this afternoon, before slowly lifting northward to Central Florida on Friday. It will become part of stronger high pressure over the Carolinas on Friday night.
Marine influence will be seen along the coast today with a return of much cooler temperatures and low clouds. fog and much cooler temperatures. temperatures will be near normal along the coast today rising to the low to upper 60s in the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances continue again today across the interior areas as a weak upper level low pressure system continues to move across the region from the west. Clean conditions this morning should begin to deteriorate into northerlies as the day progresses, a result of offshore high pressure strengthening and building toward the coast.
831 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will plague the region today with approach and passage of a cold front. Warm, moist advection on the van of an encroaching high-amplitude Midwestern/Great Lakes upper trough continues to fuel showers this morning. Unfortunately, given rapid cooling aloft with a jet streak pulling that parent trough eastward, destabilation is expected to be rapid despite the morning rain. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens. Condition deterioration can be expected today as an advancing cold front spawns additional convection.
Latest short range models/ensembles are in general agreement with the transition from weak ridging to troughiness over the western CONUS. High temperatures today and Friday will range from 75-85, with 55-65 for the higher elevations.
/Issued 344 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ A cold front and associated upper level trough move across the region today, ending all precip chances and clearing things out as a drier airmass moves over the area.
A slow moving upper trough will support another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today. With the trough axis sliding east of the area convection will be more terrain based, initiating over mountains of e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho and along the northern NV border.
High pressure aloft will bring the hottest daytime temperatures so far this year again today.
Cools air will continue to filter across the area with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s. First, a warmer and more humid airmass will begin to move into the area with day time highs in the 80s.
/issued 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, with another weak cool front over NE TX. By Friday afternoon, the high will move east of the region, with low pressure developing across the Central Plains. Thus, more humid afternoon highs in the lower 90s, and overnight lows in the mid to sometimes upper 70s expected.
The chances pops west of the Highway 283 covers the situation well. With continued waa/lee troughing, highs in the 90s look fairly reasonable for a good portion of the FA and have increased Friday highs as a result.
The western upper ridge was beginning to break down per recent water vapor imagery with scattered convection over the northwestern states. The upper trough axis was east of the Mississippi River early this morning with northwest flow continuing locally. Similar to yesterday the models develop convection during peak heating across the High Plains along the dryline.
The cold front is taking its sweet time exiting. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 52 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 47 75 49 / 40 0 0 0.