Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low and its weak surface reflection will continue to wobble over the area, providing enough convergence in conjunction with modest instability for continued convective chances. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates a bit. Mean storm motion looks to be roughly 310 at 10 kts as the upper level trough finally begins to push east in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs should reach the low to mid 80s. Drier air moves in Friday night as low pressure slides over the East Coast.
/Today through Friday/ Upper level ridge continues to solidify itself over W TX, building newd into our region. Weakness associated with an upper trof situated well to our ne continues to keep portions of our region under nwly flow aloft on the nern periphery of the upper ridge. Although the intrusion of the upper ridge continues to simplify the fcst, this area of weakness/nnwly flow is keeping us on our toes. Any storms today should diminish with the loss of daytime heating, as the ridge builds even further ne. Upper ridge will likely keep convection at bay through Friday, with temps ticking upwards into the low to mid 90s both today and Friday.
Upper trough that has triggered scattered convection for the past several days continues to weaken and drift slowly eastward this morning. As has been advertised for the past several model runs, mid-level ridging in the wake of the slowly departing trough will lead to a mostly dry day on Friday. Given mostly sunny skies and rising upper heights, high temperatures will reach the lower 90s.
553 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania today, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
501 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A dry, cooler and less humid day in store, though an isolated shower or storm will still be possible near the NY/PA state line. On Friday a weak mid-level trough will move across the area with a moist southerly flow developing across southern portions of the cwa.
/issued 403 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ An upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough over the northwest part of the country. Expect areas east of the dryline to be cooler so have decreased temperatures below the NBM for those locations due to recent trends. Similar conditions will be present on Friday with temperatures maybe a degree or two warmer than today.
We'll warm into the low 80s later today and as we do so, we'll see more storms start to blossom, like we did yesterday. Enjoy these cooler temperatures because the heat is going to crank up this weekend.
Winds are expected to relax this morning resulting in a calmer and cooler day. High pressure building in from the east and strengthening by the middle of the week could bring record breaking heat to the region. A low pressure trough will pass across central and northern Nevada this morning and then will be east of the area this afternoon. Warmer conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures warming closer to normal.
Once a cold front pushing through the area this afternoon and evening ends the severe weather threat, it will be remain cool on Friday before a significant warming trend begins this weekend.
The main upper level closed low is centered over OH/WV this morning. At the same time the Bermuda Ridge axis is oriented west to east across South GA/North FL keeping the deeper layered moisture mainly north of the state. The main wave along the surface frontal system associated with the upper level low moves NE out of the Mid MS river valley today and into the TN and OH river valleys through Friday morning.
Morning radar imagery showing precipitation is focused over southwest Idaho and is contracting from west to east as the associated upper low lifts northeastward. The thunderstorm threat for the rest of today is minimal and will be limited to the higher terrain through this afternoon.
The area remains wedged between a narrowly tilted ridge extendind from northern Mexico into the Plains, and mean troughing over the eastern and western coasts. Over time the ridge will continue to build across the Plains and southwestern US, although the flow pattern aloft will largely continue out of the north and northwest over time. The principal change in the forecast will be a cold front pushing down across the area by the end of the weekend.
Current temperatures in the low 90s to near 95 are combining with high dewpoints as high as the lower 70s to result in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. An upper trough was currently located from central ID through northeast NV. This upper trough will continue to advance northeast and bring a cold front through the region with some severe storms expected across the Dakotas southward into western and north central Nebraska. Behind the cold front on Friday, sunny skies and a reprieve in the heat as dewpoints will fall back into the upper 30s western Sandhills to the mid 40s east. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night, clear skies and noticeably cooler.
251 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Persistent pattern continues as the upper level low has now become absorbed into the upper flow with troughing extending SSE across the OH Valley. Surface analysis places a center of low pressure along the OH River in western KY with troughing extending NE across central KY and southern Indiana and 70 degree isodrosotherm encompassing all of the CWA. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a bullseye of surface convergence near the low center in western KY and extending NE along the OH river coincident with SBCAPE maxima of 2000 J/kg.
Primary forecast focus remains on the approach of a cold front and convective evolution overnight across the Plains and how that will influence thunderstorm evolution and chances for our area Friday. A short wave trough skirting the Dakotas through the evening as it lifts northeast into the Canadian Prairies will provide support as a cold front kicks off convection through the evening across the northern Plains.
This will suppress the ridge while pushing it east into the region. Should be a weakening trend in the wave as it drops through lower MI deeper into the ridge while the jet forcing is off to the east.
Rain chances then end after midnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. The ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic shifts south of the area by tomorrow morning, with low level winds becoming west-southwest into Friday afternoon. It will be another hot day, especially with a delayed sea breeze, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Winds are expected to relax this morning resulting in a calmer and cooler day. High pressure building in from the east and strengthening by the middle of the week could bring record breaking heat to the region. A cold front is currently working its way through the Las Vegas Valley, with the winds shifting to the northwest with progress currently to right around McCarran at this point. A low pressure trough will pass across central and northern Nevada this morning and then will be east of the area this afternoon. Warmer conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures warming closer to normal.
A cold and very wet upper level low pressure trough continues its slog northeast this afternoon. As forecast, once the cold upper trough moved overhead, the colder air came crashing towards the surface and lowered the snow level to around 5000 feet. The weekend weather looks quite nice as building high pressure to our east begins what appears to be a rather prolonged warming trend.
/Issued 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ /Through Friday/ Strong upper-level ridging will continue through at least the next 24 hours, keeping a lid on any precipitation chances. Despite the warmer and dry weather, conditions will remain quite humid as strong evapotranspiration continues across North/Central TX. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s across the region, where they will remain for at least the next few days. While the dewpoints will keep actual temperatures down a bit ("only" in the low 90s), the exceptionally humid conditions will result in afternoon maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. /NEW/ /Friday night through next Thursday/ The upper ridge will stay firmly planted over Texas as we head into the weekend, keeping hot and rain-free weather in place.
Activity will likely wane after sunset, save perhaps the easternmost part of the area that will remain ahead of the passing trough axis through midnight or so. Friday most of the synoptic scale forcing mechanisms will depart, but the airmass will remain quite saturated through the lower half of the column with surface dewpoints remaining in the low 70s. With afternoon highs moving into the low 90s in most locales it's not difficult to picture a few residual boundaries or differential heating zones aiding in popping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, particularly in the east.
218 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and high temperatures right around seasonal normals.
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few days ahead of a cold front.
132 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Sharp trough passage expected today to produce a dynamic and active weather situation across the region. This will all be generally covered by the High Wind Warning we have in place from 5 pm to 3 am from Rosebud County eastward. Trough axis pushes through to the Dakotas after about 1 am tonight, so we expect diminishing winds for most areas after midnight.
Morning observations have 24hr temp changes 5-10 degrees warmer across much of NE OK while dewpoints remaining the mid/upper 70 degree range.
151 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 19Z Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated CWA under amplified ridge aloft with strong short wave trough lifting north east into Montana. At the surface, a hot and very humid airmass was in place, with several locations recording dewpoints in the low 70s and the HLC area has already seen heat indices of 105 degrees. Main concern for the forecast period will be cold frontal passage tonight and resulting thunderstorm chances, winds and temperature impacts. Otherwise weather will be quiet across the area until after 06 UTC as cold front approaches. Cold front will be accompanied by 4-6 mb pressure rises and strong CAA. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler on Friday into Friday night with winds gradually decreasing by the evening.
An uptick in coverage should peak around 3 PM before decreasing later on, and all of that should be on the low end of pops. Otherwise, another hot a humid day is expected, with highs in the lower 90s, with dewpoints near 70. Late Friday night, the upper ridge will flatten a short wave moves through.
Westerly downslope flow will break up some of these areas of rain, but then thunderstorms are expected to develop further to the east this afternoon associated with the passing cold front. Once a cold front pushing through the area this afternoon and evening ends the severe weather threat, it will be remain cool on Friday before a significant warming trend begins this weekend.
428 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Low pressure near Indiana will drift eastward towards southern Ohio tonight. There will be a weak cold front sagging into northern Ohio from the north, stalling over the region and dissipating Friday night.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Confidence: Medium to High Early this morning low pressure continues to move into eastern MT as a frontal boundary stretches east southeast into South Dakota then back northeast across northern MN to another low in southern Canada. Cool Canadian high pressure will retreat today as the MT low begins to lift north northeast tonight into Friday. Convective initiation this afternoon will be favored over southwest/west North Dakota with any MCS again diving east southeast overnight into the high moisture axis. With the high still lingering over the area tomorrow morning, a scenario of weakening convection to the east is preferred.
/issued 730 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ Mid level ridging remains centered in the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches across Fl and over the Gulf. The mid level ridging will help keep temperatures warm today and also slightly suppress convection. nudging the higher shower/storm coverage inland.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 84 71 90 70 / 50 70 50 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 81 70 87 68 / 40 70 60 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 82 68 88 68 / 40 70 50 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 81 67 84 65 / 40 70 70 50 20.
Dew points into the lower 70s and temperatures well into the 80s will contribute to moderate instability developing this afternoon. Upper trough that has triggered scattered convection for the past several days continues to weaken and drift slowly eastward this morning. As has been advertised for the past several model runs, mid-level ridging in the wake of the slowly departing trough will lead to a mostly dry day on Friday. Given mostly sunny skies and rising upper heights, high temperatures will reach the lower 90s.
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 This afternoon-Fri night: Mid level ridging across the Gulf region begins to slip south and southwest as a short wave trough drops across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Appalachian chain. forming into a long wave trough over the eastern states. Atlantic high pressure stretches out over the Gulf of Mexico with an axis across north-central FL that shifts into south FL by late Fri. The short wave trough noted earlier pushes a frontal boundary into the southeast US. This flow along with the upper trough/surface boundary just to the north will sweep increasing moisture across the area. Ridge axis bisecting the waters shifts into south FL by late Fri as a frontal boundary settles into north FL.
1208 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania today, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
/This Afternoon/ The morning mosaic radar imagery indicates an MCS that continues to propagate slowly SSE across SE AR/NCntrl MS, along an upper trough extending from the OH valley SW into the Lower MS Valley. The 12Z NAM as well as the latest CAMS suggest that the bulk of the convection will remain over these areas today, before diminishing this evening with the loss of heating, and as the parent trough axis begins to slide farther SE to the SE LA/Srn MS coast. Farther W, upper ridging extending from Nrn old MX/Far W TX E across the Srn Plains into Wrn AR/LA will hold form today, resulting in near to slightly above normal temps this afternoon, with most locales climbing into at least the lower 90s.
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021) Tonight through Friday night: Very moist airmass over the cooler lake waters resulting in lake fog tickling the shoreline from time to time. Mid level ridging expands across the area Friday with 925 temps into he mid 20s celsius. Will leave out of grids for now as coverage and confidence in occurring on the low side here especially when we are all looking for rain, so prefer to hold off on advertising this potential for now. A little different story across the western cwa as a wave is proggd to break down the ridging a bit for the later afternoon and evening hours.
331 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Little storm motion is associated with these storms, but they do have a broad counter clockwise rotation as an upper low steers them. Elsewhere, will carry slight chance PoPs over the east/southeast portions of the forecast area to account for any weak forcing from the upper low. Meanwhile, dynamics will be limited, but the best chances will be over the southeast half of central Indiana where some forcing will linger from the upper low. the forecast will finally be dry as subsidence strengthens with an incoming ridge. Nonetheless, a cold front will sink into the area from the northeast, dropping temperatures a bit over the northeast counties into the mid 60s.
Despite not bringing much in the way of cooler/drier air, the surface convergence along the front may generate some thunderstorms north of the Oklahoma border.
Friday should be more of the same, though a little warmer as cloud cover shouldn't be as widespread. By Friday evening, we finally start to lose the general trough-iness over the region.
Overnight lows hold pretty steady in the lower 70s.
A vigorous mid-level trough will be moving east through Montana into the Northern Plains overnight which will drive a surface frontal boundary/associated line of storms into western MN by mid-Friday morning.
High pressure overhead will preclude organized precipitation. Upper level ridging will remain in control of the region today. More of the same is expected on Friday as ridging maintains it's influence. At this point, still don't have a mention of showers in the grids as moisture remains limited but a developing H5 inverted trough across the southwestern Gulf may be able to provide enough forcing to squeeze out a few showers.
For tonight, warm and conditions will continue with lows only in the lower 70s for most locations. Most models have this complex of storms shifting south of the CWA Friday night, bringing in a cooler / drier airmass for the weekend.
With persistent southerly winds and plenty of moisture in the low-levels, look for low clouds to develop early Friday morning across most of the region.
411 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will gradually move into the Canadian Maritimes overnight tonight. This high will remain in control of our weather through Friday morning before a disturbance dropping south out of Canada brings clouds and a few showers for northern and central areas, and the potential for widespread showers late Friday and Friday night.
212 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 19Z Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated CWA under amplified ridge aloft with strong short wave trough lifting north east into Montana. At the surface, a hot and very humid airmass was in place, with several locations recording dewpoints in the low 70s and the HLC area has already seen heat indices of 105 degrees. Main concern for the forecast period will be cold frontal passage tonight and resulting thunderstorm chances, winds and temperature impacts. Otherwise weather will be quiet across the area until after 06 UTC as cold front approaches. Cold front will be accompanied by 4-6 mb pressure rises and strong CAA. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler on Friday into Friday night with winds gradually decreasing by the evening.
233 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
An upper level trough is currently situated over the Ohio Valley while an upper level ridge extending from the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. This pattern will slowly progress eastward with the trough dampening as it moves out of our area toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s across eastern Kentucky with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, another muggy summer day is expected.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Ridging over North Central Mexico and West Texas will hold firm in the short term. High pressure will dominate the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. An inverted mid level height pattern (inverted trough) will remain manifest over the Southwest Gulf, extending north. All this translates into a fairly typical summertime weather pattern for deep South Texas and the lower RGV, with a mix of clouds and sun during the day, more clouds east, and mostly clear skies at night. Instability moving east to west across the top of the Southwest Gulf trough will help develop isolated overnight Gulf showers offshore, which will drift toward the coast, but the trend has been for any showers to dissipate before moving ashore.
In the Neb Panhandle, the higher terrain along the Pine Ridge will stand the best chance to see locally higher gusts approach 70 MPH. NAM soundings suggest initially poor moisture quality and a slight inversion aloft, which may suppress initiation until deep layer forcing increases after 02z with the short wave & associated cold front. Much cooler Friday in the post-frontal air mass. Highs will likely be around 15 degrees cooler for most areas w/ little if any chance for precipitation.
1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A dry, cooler and less humid day in store. Primary cold front has settled well to south of the area with mid to upper 60s dewpoints and congested cu field only as close as northern OH to central PA. On Friday a weak mid-level trough will move across the area. Otherwise, the trough moving through combined with diurnal instability (MLCAPES to 500J/kg) will support some showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon where northeast winds from the Lake Ontario breeze converge with gradient south-southeast winds across Southern Tier, basically from Erie and Chautauqua counties east-northeast into western Finger Lakes and drifting over parts of the Southern Tier. Any showers could also expand inland over the North Country in the afternoon with the trough and daytime heating.
Dewpoints have actually dropped a little into the lower 70s this afternoon, likely due to some increased mixing in the boundary layer. Heat indices have climbed into the low 100s in some locations but it appears that they have generally maxed out for this afternoon. A cold front, forced south by the upper wave, will move into the central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will be spreading into the region.
Quiet weather through the short term as an upper ridge remains over the region. Some potential for an isolated shower right along the coast around daybreak Friday as an inverted trough begins to develop well south of the Coastal Bend, but organized activity is unlikely given a lack of deep moisture.
512 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Fog is less of a concern as lower surface dewpoint air continues feeding in on easterly flow from high pressure in Ontario. The complicating factor in the forecast remains weak low pressure moving into Ohio late tonight which still has potential for MVFR stratocu production in the DTW area toward sunrise through mid morning. This will suppress the ridge while pushing it east into the region. Should be a weakening trend in the wave as it drops through lower MI deeper into the ridge while the jet forcing is off to the east.
These storms should not backbuild too far WSW though given the presence of the ridging aloft extending from Nrn Old MX/Far W TX E into SW AR/Wrn LA. The upper ridge remains progged to expand farther E into the Lower MS Valley Friday, with increased subsidence yielding dry conditions areawide. A clearing sky Friday night is expected although muggy conditions will persist, with temps again falling into the lower to mid 70s.
Cold front is pushing into western Custer and northwest Powder River County at this time. BT Sharp trough passage expected today to produce a dynamic and active weather situation across the region. This will all be generally covered by the High Wind Warning we have in place from 5 pm to 3 am from Rosebud County eastward. Trough axis pushes through to the Dakotas after about 1 am tonight, so we expect diminishing winds for most areas after midnight.
Strong ascent from short wave trough upstream should interact with 60 kt shear to produce a few strong to severe storms with hail and high wind. BT Sharp trough passage expected today to produce a dynamic and active weather situation across the region. This will all be generally covered by the High Wind Warning we have in place from 5 pm to 3 am from Rosebud County eastward. Trough axis pushes through to the Dakotas after about 1 am tonight, so we expect diminishing winds for most areas after midnight.