Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TFJ Freezing rain has occurred overnight across most of NE Montana. While most of the freezing rain has moved to the east, it has left behind icy roads in many areas and left I-94 closed between Glendive and Miles City as of 2 am MST. A cold front is currently moving through the area this morning with strong cold air advection that will result in steady or slowly falling temperatures today. Will cancel the High Wind Watch for today. Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
Unfortunately for the southern 1/3 of the area the coverage has not been as good and the forcing for this storm is dropping southwest along with the parent upper low. This general downslope flow should end much of the low level precipitation. Really not expected much more accumulation but snow will stick to roads better in the high country after dark. Have put in the mention of patchy fog along the I-70 western valleys at this point with the highest confidence for dense fog in the Grand Valley early Saturday.
Afternoon cloud deck should disperse as upper trof makes passage and diurnal heating is lost. Next couple short waves of energy round base of long wave trof this weekend, but are largely moisture starved in our FA.
331 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A long wave trough of low pressure was the dominant weather feature across the CONUS this morning. High pressure was located north of Hispaniola with a ridge extending north across the western Atlantic. High pressure was also located around 500 miles off the coast of northern California. A ridge extended north of this high into the Alaska panhandle and eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, arctic high pressure was the dominant feature over the western half of the CONUS this morning. A warm front was situated from eastern North Dakota, south into western Nebraska. Along the leading edge of this line, light freezing rain was occurring, with a change over to snow, then rain.
Temperatures are considerably warmer behind this wave. Expect mostly teens and wind chills much warmer than the past two nights as the pressure gradient loosens while winds turn from south to northwest. Any skiffs of snow that fall today will melt tomorrow with highs ranging from the lower 30s in parts of western Iowa where last week's snow still lingers to mid-40s on the CWA's dry western flank.
Gusty north winds are also occurring in some areas, notably Buffalo along the Bighorn Mountains and then along the Owl Creek/Bridger Mountains and into the southern and eastern portions of the Wind River Basin. It looks like a dirty ridge will set up, which will help to keep mid- and high-level clouds across the region overnight.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Weak upper-level ridge to swing east across the region overnight to be replaced by a stronger ridge later in the weekend. Subsidence associated with upper-ridge to maintain dry conditions across the region through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure to build south from the Great Lakes region overnight, becoming firmly established areawide by Saturday evening allowing for light winds and cold conditions to prevail through the weekend. Further south across deep east Texas and north north Louisiana, temperatures to average in the lower 20s.
324 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A mid level trough is positioned from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi River Valley. There is a ridge in the Central Plains and a short wave over the Northern Plains. After a couple of pretty cool days, there was a bit of an increase with values closer to the freezing mark but still roughly 10 degrees below seasonal normal. Highlight: Gradual warm up for the weekend Change: Slight bump in temperatures on Saturday The trough over the Northern Plains will make an eastward track while another developing closed system should stay over the Desert Southwest. This makes way for a gradual warm up with temperatures near and above normal on Saturday; seasonal normal values are in the low 40s.
917 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight as it moves southeast.
Chances for showers continue through the weekend, along with cooler temperatures and breezy northeast winds.
This should allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 20s primarily Saturday night.
Dry but foggy weather is the headline for the next seven days due to a nearly stationary upper level ridge over Western Washington.
530 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A long wave trough of low pressure was the dominant weather feature across the CONUS this morning. High pressure was located north of Hispaniola with a ridge extending north across the western Atlantic. High pressure was also located around 500 miles off the coast of northern California. A ridge extended north of this high into the Alaska panhandle and eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, arctic high pressure was the dominant feature over the western half of the CONUS this morning. A warm front was situated from eastern North Dakota, south into western Nebraska. Along the leading edge of this line, light freezing rain was occurring, with a change over to snow, then rain.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 21 42 25 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 18 39 23 44 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 17 40 23 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 15 38 20 39 24 / 0 0 0 0 10.
An upper level disturbance is expected to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight/early Saturday, while a strong upper low moves southward along the West Coast during the period. Issued a Freeze Warning for most of the northern counties tonight, based in part on HREF freezing temperature probabilities and NBM.
In addition, gusty winds will be probable across exposed ridges during the next two days. A cold/dense surface to 700 mb airmass will settle across the east side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in the wake of the trough, and aid in driving easterly offshore winds across the western foothills of the Sierras, and farther west across the Coast Range of NWRN CA.
532 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A mid level trough is positioned from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi River Valley. There is a ridge in the Central Plains and a short wave over the Northern Plains. After a couple of pretty cool days, there was a bit of an increase with values closer to the freezing mark but still roughly 10 degrees below seasonal normal. Highlight: Gradual warm up for the weekend Change: Slight bump in temperatures on Saturday The trough over the Northern Plains will make an eastward track while another developing closed system should stay over the Desert Southwest. This makes way for a gradual warm up with temperatures near and above normal on Saturday; seasonal normal values are in the low 40s.
So far, the strongest wind gusts have been 55 mph near Wishon Reservoir, 54 mph along Whiskey Ridge, and 40 to 50 mph in the North Fork/Auberry area. With the upper level low aloft and plenty of mixing, we're currently not expecting any widespread dense fog in the morning.
The temperatures for tonight should drop into the low to mid teens.
805 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 Cold and dry weather continues through Saturday under high pressure.
633 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight as it moves southeast.
As of this afternoon, the low clouds have finally dissipated across central Indiana, allowing for sunshine to take over. Upper ridging will pass overhead for the rest of the day and overnight, providing subsidence and dry air and leading to mostly clear skies and veering winds during that time. Tight pressure gradients on the leading edge of the trough will lead to increased winds through the day Saturday as well, with gusts up to 30 mph expected in the northern portion of the forecast area.
Current surface map shows trof/cool front across western South Dakota. May be a few light snow showers for the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Dry and warmer for the weekend.
Conditions remain fairly warm and humid with temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points a couple of degrees below. While broad troughing is in place aloft, much of the upper level forcing remains well north of our area.
1246 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight as it moves southeast.
After a chilly start with most locations in the low to mid 20s this morning, sunny skies, and dry air will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s in most locations. High pressure centered just east of our area will keep winds fairly light today out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Although we won't be as cold overall, most locations will likely fall to around freezing for one more night.
In fact, at 2 AM Omaha and Lincoln were about 20-30 degrees warmer than they were Friday morning.
/Clouds gradually vacate with cold high pressure persisting/ The last few raindrops have exited the far southeast part of the forecast area as of the 8p hour. There is a slow westward drift of the low cloud deck, similar to last night, and this could bring a return of some clouds overnight for spots that are currently clear.
A large trough that will sit NE of the area will allow subsidence to dominate region thus leading to mostly clear skies for most through the weekend.
It will be warmer but windy in the southwest tomorrow, where forecast gusts were increased to around 40 mph. At 19Z the initial warm front was pushing through the James River Valley while the cold front was quickly dropping through the north. Light rain has been undergoing a switch to light snow as the temperatures cool off, and while there haven't been reports of freezing rain with the light liquid amounts and warming roads, the strong winds have blown earlier snow onto roads and created slippery conditions over areas of the north and central.
/sb 06Z TAFS: High pressure aloft will promote light winds and strengthening inversions at the surface. PUW-LWS will carry the lowest risk given a light SE wind but confidence is not high the flow will be strong enough to overcome fog along the Snake River.
103 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 Cold and dry weather continues today under high pressure.
346 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 High pressure with some bitterly cold air will be over the region through Saturday. A deep upper level trough is setting up over the northeastern CONUS, resulting in a prolonged cold spell with below normal temperatures certain.
There is a period where the dendritic growth zone dries out so cant rule out some light freezing drizzle on low level northeasterlies, with a slight upslope component just to the west of the James valley, but confidence in this is very low.
Clouds are expected to shift to the east by mid-day as the upper trough positioned over the northern plains reaches the Great Lakes region.
1111 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A mid level trough is positioned from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi River Valley. There is a ridge in the Central Plains and a short wave over the Northern Plains. After a couple of pretty cool days, there was a bit of an increase with values closer to the freezing mark but still roughly 10 degrees below seasonal normal. Highlight: Gradual warm up for the weekend Change: Slight bump in temperatures on Saturday The trough over the Northern Plains will make an eastward track while another developing closed system should stay over the Desert Southwest. This makes way for a gradual warm up with temperatures near and above normal on Saturday; seasonal normal values are in the low 40s.
By this afternoon, winds are expected to increase to 5- 12 mph, and resulting warm air advection will lift temperatures into the low to mid 30s for highs. Tonight, the pressure gradient will remain relatively tight ahead of a cold front dropping south from the northwest.
1108 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 High pressure with some bitterly cold air will be over the region through Saturday. A deep upper level trough is setting up over the northeastern CONUS, resulting in a prolonged cold spell with below normal temperatures certain.
300 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Today will be warmer than previous days with highs nearing the freezing mark.
The Evening Update: Retrograding low pressure center over extreme SErn CA will slow its descent and will spin near the SW AZ/Old Mex border thru Sat. Some decoupling of the lower atmosphere has allowed winds in the Valley to subside, except mainly in the "reverse gap flow" area dominated by the Nly Barrier Jet on the W side of the Valley and into the Bay area. Meanwhile, over the high Sierra the strong Ely RNO-SAC/SFO gradient (9-10 mbs) is causing the strong katabatic winds with isolated gusts over 100 mph at Summit Ward Mtn and Kirkwood Chair 6. The massive mid level CAA (700-850 mbs) resulted in max temps some 10-20 degrees cooler than Thu over the high Sierra.
Along with the cooling temperatures and calm winds, some patchy freezing fog may develop in isolated areas east of I-65.
Satellite indicates low stratus and fog spreading across the Highway 40 corridor towards Craig as skies have cleared up here. Unfortunately for the southern 1/3 of the area the coverage has not been as good and the forcing for this storm is dropping southwest along with the parent upper low. This general downslope flow should end much of the low level precipitation. Really not expected much more accumulation but snow will stick to roads better in the high country after dark. Have put in the mention of patchy fog along the I-70 western valleys at this point with the highest confidence for dense fog in the Grand Valley early Saturday.
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A long wave trough of low pressure was the dominant weather feature across the CONUS this morning. High pressure was located north of Hispaniola with a ridge extending north across the western Atlantic. High pressure was also located around 500 miles off the coast of northern California. A ridge extended north of this high into the Alaska panhandle and eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, arctic high pressure was the dominant feature over the western half of the CONUS this morning. A warm front was situated from eastern North Dakota, south into western Nebraska. Along the leading edge of this line, light freezing rain was occurring, with a change over to snow, then rain.
Cold front slowly settling southward across TAF sites will bring N to NE winds. /issued 707 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022/ Upper trough lifting out of the region is stranding surface frontal boundary over the FL Peninsula this evening with cold and damp conditions over the Nature Coast with overrunning light rain and temps/dew points in the mid-upper 50s in the cold sector of the system to temps in the lower to mid 70s with convective showers in SW FL. High pressure building into the N Gulf behind the SE Gulf front is producing increasing N winds over the offshore waters and will expand the SCEC as far S as through offshore Englewood.
1251 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 High pressure with some bitterly cold air will be over the region through Saturday. A deep upper level trough is setting up over the northeastern CONUS, resulting in a prolonged cold spell with below normal temperatures certain.
During the day, increasing subsidence and height rises will promote clearing and warmer but still below normal temperatures from what was seen yesterday.
Both temperatures and dewpoints are around 8 to 12 degrees colder than this time last night, and subfreezing temperatures are forecast for most locations early Saturday morning. Current forecast has patchy freezing fog in the Lower Columbia Basin, the Yakima Valley, and the Blue Mtn Foothills. Only a few tweaks to the low temperatures tonight were made to the forecast.
Along with the cooling temperatures and calm winds, some patchy freezing fog may develop in isolated areas east of I-65. The upper level trough will continue to swing through and has taken most of the MVFR clouds with it.
122 AM MST Sat Jan 22 2022 The splitting upper level trough responsible for yesterday's light snowfall has transitioned to a closed low over southwest Arizona while the northern wave has continued to progress east towards the Northern Plains. Additional light snow showers have lingered over some of the higher elevations across southwest Colorado but, for the most part, denser clouds have started to dissipate across the region as this system continues to sag south. Bufkit soundings show this low stratus will persist through the early to mid morning hours. Pattern-wise, eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sandwiched in between an elongating trough of low pressure over the central states and an amplifying ridge off the west coast while the aforementioned closed low slowly hovers near Baja.
The mid to near term models consistently show a deepening trough that is coupled with a 850mb thermal trough consisting of an arctic air mass with 850mb temps.
238 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 An upper-level trough will remain centered over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada through the short term period.
There could be a few patches of fog in the low lying areas toward dawn, but that should be pretty isolated. This weekend will be uneventful with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer relative to yesterday for most of the area.
The lower levels will begin to moisten at DRT at first with BKN050 likely by 15z, then SAT/SSF around 02z tomorrow evening before finally getting to AUS after the valid period. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over Texas with cyclonic flow over the state.
With relatively moist low-levels, valleys could see areas of fog and/or low clouds tonight and through the weekend as high pressure builds over the area. Local valley IFR in fog and low clouds through the lower valleys from KTWF/KJER and then ne-ward towards KMUO should slowly move toward KBOI overnight.
A surface feature along the Lower Texas Coast will produce light rain at the aerodromes today, mainly during the afternoon hours. /issued 255 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A sense of normalcy will return to the BRO CWFA for the weekend, with above freezing temperatures and precipitation in a all-liquid form. During the forecast period, an inverted trough at the surface will gradually ease westward from the Lower Texas Coast into the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. Precipitation-wise, the trough will generate mainly isolated rain, especially over the nearshore waters and the counties along the Rio Grande River.
High pressure through the period will bring dry conditions with morning freezing fog and slight chance of freezing drizzle. An inversion has set up with mountains being warmer and mostly cloud free. Model soundings support a slight chance of freezing drizzle which could create some ice accretion on roadways, especially where visibilities drop below roughly 3 SM.
However, recent trends show the snow beginning to diminish, along with the low stratiform clouds in the area. Supporting synoptic conditions for snow will wane quickly this morning, as brief ridging builds in at the upper-levels. High temperatures are expected to remain in the low-mid 40s over the plains, and mid-30s across most of the higher terrain. Low temps will be in the teens-20s over the plains, and mostly single digits over the higher terrain.
High pressure to the south keeps these waves (and snow) at bay as well as turn our winds southwesterly which has been gradually guiding warmer air into the region.
947 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 Arctic high pressure will gradually modify as it settles to our south through tonight.
A closed low will continue to pinch off from the mean flow through the day today, allowing high pressure to expand over the eastern Great Basin. High pressure will be maintained through the weekend alongside seasonable temperatures.
An upper low centered over southeast California will continue to provide windy conditions over the sierra as well as the Kern County Mountains and desert today. The potential for strong gusty downslope winds into the lower sierra should continue this morning then shift to the higher elevations of the sierra this afternoon as the low moves southward and further away from the district. Winds will diminish tonight as the low moves into the Sonoran Desert area while high pressure offshore builds inland.
Saturday night lows will fall into the low to mid 20s; guidance again hints at localized areas of patchy fog/low stratus. Sunday, northwesterly flow continues with high pressure over the western CONUS. 850mb temperatures appear to be even warmer with westerly winds helping advect a warmer airmass into the area as some areas may make a run at the lower 60s.
As for temperatures, highs today will reach into the mid to upper 50s with lows tonight in the low to mid 20s.
High pressure building into the region keeping the forecast quiet but cold, with this morning starting off in the upper teens and lower 20s. Weakly northwesterly flow aloft remains through the short term, as a cutoff upper low parks over the desert SW. but warmer than yesterday. Tonight, temps will drop into the low to mid 20s yet again.
409 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 Dry conditions will continue into this evening as high pressure sinks south of the area.
An upper-level trough will remain centered over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada through the short term period.
Saturday night lows will fall into the low to mid 20s; guidance again hints at localized areas of patchy fog/low stratus. Sunday, northwesterly flow continues with high pressure over the western CONUS. 850mb temperatures appear to be even warmer with westerly winds helping advect a warmer airmass into the area as some areas may make a run at the lower 60s. An upper level trough will be over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge over the Rockies.
Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow across the region, with a strong ridge remaining off the west coast and low pressure over the Hudson Bay region. Skies are variably cloudy across the area, with temps ranging from the upper teens over far northwest SD to the lower 30s across parts of northeast WY and the Black Hills.
The main forecast focus in the short term will be warmer temperatures today and Sunday and slight chances for light snow or flurries across the northeast tonight. Sunday, another clipper system drops into North Dakota during the afternoon,and will bring even warmer temperatures to the area. Highs will reach into the lower to mid 50s with gusty westerly winds again across the north.
Cool surface ridging remains in control this weekend with mostly light NE winds. This theme remains intact tonight and again on Sunday under weak mid- level ridging with continued very dry NE flow in the sub-cloud layer. Overcast skies this entire time look to curb the diurnal temp range by 5-10 degrees, so lows tonight will be well above freezing with highs on Sunday not too dissimilar from today.
944 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022 Dry conditions will continue into this evening as high pressure sinks south of the area.
Temperatures at 2 AM, hovering in the mid to upper teens above zero, are 20 to 30 degrees (F) warmer than 24 hours ago! The first batch of light snow and flurries will exit the eastern counties between 5 - 7 AM. Temperatures will be much warmer than the past few days, reaching the low 20s north to low 30s far south. On Sunday breezy and cold conditions will be see with skies slowly clearing as high pressure quickly moves through the area.
Strong high pressure ridging is centered off the Oregon coast, while an upper low is centered over the southern California and Mexican border.
expect afternoon temperatures to climb up into the 60s thanks to the ridging aloft and mostly sunny skies.
There is a period where the dendritic growth zone dries out so cant rule out some light freezing drizzle on low level northeasterlies, with a slight upslope component just to the west of the James valley, but confidence in this is very low. That pattern featuring a west coast ridge, and downstream trof over the central and eastern CONUS.
highs today will range from the lower to mid 50s, then into the mid to upper 50s tomorrow afternoon.