Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
349 AM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021 An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the area today, bringing us modest west-northwest flow aloft, resulting in dry, warm conditions. High temperatures are expected to be mild for this time of year, with high-80s to low-90s over the eastern plains and 70s- 80s over the higher terrain.
There hasn't been much measurable precipitation with these showers, and this will likely continue through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon as the upper-level trough/low to mid level moisture continues to move to the southeast.
A weak upper level trough was situated over western Kansas this morning but the shower activity across far western Kansas had ended earlier in the night. In the absence of any thermal advection and downslope, temperatures will be only slightly warmer today.
Have adjusted PoPs accordingly this morning, with additional development possible across the northern Permian Basin in addition to the showers and storms possible for far southern zones associated with a trough to the south. (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge remains over Srn NV/Srn CA this morning as a trough hits the CA coast. This trough will flatten out the ridge as it swings east moving over OR today and ID tonight and into WY Friday. As the ridge flattens it will also be displaced east across NM and W TX.
/issued 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s. High pressure remains in control across much of the eastern U.
On Friday look for lighter winds and dry conditions across the region, along with cooler and more seasonable temperatures. Trough energy moves in over northern CA today which will bring gusty winds to northern and central NV. Later today and into tonight as the trough from northern CA moves in over northern NV, the associated cold front will pass from NW to SE across the CWA, leaving cooler air in it's wake.
Ridge axis begins a slow northward movement, which will weaken offshore flow enough to allow the east coast sea breeze to form and push inland across the Treasure Coast northward through Brevard County. Ridge axis will be building gradually back northward across the area today, with S/SW flow up to 10-15 knots this morning, becoming S/SE this afternoon with the east coast sea breeze forming. Main concern for boaters will be the continued threat for offshore moving storms this afternoon-early evening with the highest threat north of Sebastian Inlet.
/issued 143 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ A weak upper level short wave trough is continuing to make a slow progression to the east, located over the Texas Panhandle to the Permian Basin early this morning and expected to the east of the forecast by evening. The trough will be moving over an area across the Rolling Plains today that will have a bit better surface moisture but still somewhat limited sub- cloud moisture. Will keep precip chances near 10 percent for eastern counties today, dropping off to near zero with the passage of the trough this evening.
318 AM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Upper ridge over the northern Rockies will provide another very warm day with highs in the 90s. The ridge will get flattened and shifted east late this afternoon into this evening as a strong upper trough slides into eastern Oregon. TWH The pattern looks to change by the end of this week with multiple cold fronts moving through the area. An upper level trough will move through the area on Friday, bringing with it the chance of thunderstorms to much of the area. There will be plenty of lift across southeastern Montana as the trough moves into the area in the afternoon with the best chance around peak heating. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish as the the trough shifts east in the evening.
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 The southwest flow of the last few days will begin to transistion over the next couple of days as the upper level trough over the eastern U. weakens and ridging begins to build in from the east.
229 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Slow moving convection today amid building high pressure. Weakening upper level flow aloft in response to a departing trough will deplete the movement of convection today, but should generally propagate north/northeastward before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. The departure of the trough will allow for a mid to upper level ridge axis and its adjoining building heights to spread drier conditions overhead overnight into Friday. This low level flow regime will also advertise slightly warmer afternoon highs on Friday, with some areas in the lowlands sneaking up near 90 degrees.
By late Friday, a vigorous upper trof will approach from the west with a good amount of forcing and deformation to boost updrafts despite limited instability.
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Overall a really nice day across eastern KY today with high pressure to our east and slight ridging aloft between the trough to our east and another one to our west over the central US. The low level Cu dissipates this evening and it will start out mostly clear tonight before high clouds move in overnight into tomorrow morning ahead of the approaching trough from the west. Despite the high clouds moving in, still expect some patchy river valley fog in the usual locations. Overnight low temps in the lower 60s. It will be a dry start to Friday with mid and high clouds increasing across the area ahead of the approaching trough.
Later tonight, the low-level jet and tropical nature of the profile in place over South Texas will result in new convection developing on both sides of the border in the Rio Grande Plains.
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 An upper level trough was moving across the region this afternoon. The upper trough will linger over the area tonight and into Friday.
Mid to upper 60s should be common in the lower plains/eastern counties while farther west perhaps as low as 60 degrees will likely be found through the Arkansas River valley.
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Upper level trough is beginning to move into the region this afternoon.
Increasing low-level southeasterly flow later this afternoon still looks to touch off very isolated convection over upslope areas of the Blue Ridge which could drift into the far E TN mountains. VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure remains across the southern Appalachians. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 70 87 69 / 10 30 30 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 69 87 68 / 10 20 30 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 68 86 67 / 10 20 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 87 65 85 63 / 10 10 30 40 20.
1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Water vapor imagery shows upper energy extending from eastern Nebraska down into western OK with strong upper ridging remaining over the Desert Southwest. There are some light returns showing up across central and southern KS in response to the weak upper trough slowly sliding through the area. Upper trough is expected to be moving into the Ozark region by tonight, leaving brief upper ridging in place for Fri.
Coverage and intensity in eastern Oklahoma should remain on the low side this morning, given the better forcing to our west, and as such, slight chances should handle things until the afternoon. Temperatures today will be a little cooler across many locations with increased clouds and rainfall where it occurs.
It's been present in the low-level flow since at least a few days ago over the Great Lakes region, but has origins in the west due to wildfires a few days prior to that.
An upper level trough, currently over northern California and Oregon, is forecast to quickly advance eastward as it rides over and flattens the western CONUS ridge.
Last night's upper air plot placed 500 mb high near Las Vegas while at 300 mb the high was further south near Yuma.
May see scattered convection develop once again tonight over the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains as the frontal boundary decays while interacting with a weak low-level inverted trough. Deterministic runs predict a weak upper trough to move slowly eastward and over the region today/tonight, then continue to move toward the east while an upper ridge builds from the west.
This will act to flatten and elongate the ridge centered over the Southwest US. This will push the thermal ridge closer to our region and temperatures will continue their slow climb. Highs Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with temperatures in the upper 80s for the higher terrain, mid 90s in the plains, and near 100 in the Rio Grande Valley. Lows will similarly be a few degrees warmer due to the warmer highs and continued increasing moisture.
An upper level trough approaches from the west overnight tonight. Warmer air is expected over the state with temperatures on Friday a couple of degrees warmer than today.
The 500 mb ridging that is trying to nose into the region from the east will be competing with the southern end of a 500 mb trough digging over the lower Miss River Valley. The influence of the trough axis will combine with the sea breeze/diurnal effects to force the conv to linger on into Fri.
We expect min temps to start making higher-lows and run a few to several degrees warmer vs. Despite the increased cloud cover, guidance blend supports maxTs +1 to +4 degrees warmer than Thursday with readings peaking in the 80-90F range or about +2-5F above climo in most locations. Friday night will be mostly cloudy and noticeably warmer (+5-10F vs.
Our initial upper level trough over the southeastern U. At the surface, weak low pressure resides east the area across northern FL, with relatively weak to no surface reflection in association with the aforementioned trough. Highs today top out in the upper 80's to near 90, with lows tonight in the lower 70's. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Friday, reaching into the upper 80's and lower 90's.
With increasing low level moisture and warmer temperature advection ahead of the lift provided by the trough, instability (CAPE > 2000 j/kg) will be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop that could create some small hail, brief downpours of rain and.
Afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler than then they have been starting on Friday, with the cooling trend continuing through the weekend.
Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s across the region. Given the high MLCAPE values an isolated strong to severe storm with gusty winds and large hail is possible; however, given the weak shear widespread severe weather is not expected.
Main upper ridge will begin to breakdown and shift east per a digging/splitting upper trough pushing into the northern Rockies Friday.
Upper level low presently located near Redding will lift northeast toward northwestern Nevada and southern Idaho over the next 24 hours. On the backside of this low, Valley winds will become more northerly tonight and into Friday. Another forecast challenge that the smoke will present would be slightly cooler afternoon temperatures.
fires will remain over the region, but temperatures are still expected to climb into the 90s on Friday as the upper ridge builds during peak heating. The ridge will collapse Friday night under the influence of an upper trough over the western Dakotas.
However, the main activity, which looks like showers, is associated with the cold front, and will move in from C Wisconsin/W Upper overnight. This weakening wave will be accompanied by a weak cold front.
/Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ Drier mid level air will move across the Panhandles behind the short wave trough that moved across the area last evening. Winds will turn back around to the south by tonight in response to falling heights across the Rockies due to a short wave trough moving into that region. The convergence along this trough, upslope flow into the Raton Mesa and an approaching upper level short wave trough may be enough to spark a shower or thunderstorm over the Raton Mesa which could move into our area given the westerly flow aloft.
Wildfire smoke is expected to return on Friday following the cold front tonight. The main concern today will be the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold front tonight, wildfire smoke is expected to make a return to the CWA as winds turn back to the north-northwest on Friday.
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Models show an upper level trof moving toward our region tonight. The trof will pass over most of our region Friday, and some models are producing some splotchy light QPF over our area. The trof will not move east of our region until the evening hours, but loss of heating should end any chances.
Thus, the higher PoPs from the late afternoon and into the evening will be from southeast OK into western AR.
Quiet weather will continue into the early daylight hours with temperatures, in general, slightly cooler than normal.
An upper level trough is in place and will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop southeast of Pittsburgh. With the lack of large scale ascent, successful convection will likely be due to mechanical ascent near the ridges. Convection will wane after sunset with the loss of instability with temperature in the low 60s overnight. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridge axis will move right over the Upper Ohio Valley. The upper level pattern will feature a slowing and active pattern as in the flow through the lower latitudes showing a weak trough digging into the the Middle Appalachian Region and pushing east. Strong riding exists along the east coast so the trough will be weakening as it arrives into the forecast area.
A weak mid to upper level trough to our north will continue to push across South Texas tonight, with the axis to our east by mid-morning Friday. In addition, there are indications of a low-level jet and inverted trough extending from Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains to contribute to convection development. Although the upper level trough pushes east of our area and ridging builds in on Friday, moisture remains climatologically high (over 75th percentile) and surface moisture convergence along with surface heating and the afternoon sea breeze will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the area. A tad warmer highs are expected on Friday as skies become partly cloudy, ranging from the low to mid 90s.
1222 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Dry and pleasant conditions will slowly be replaced by warmer, more humid and at times wet conditions into the weekend.
The remnant trough overhead will once again be in place today. With daytime heating, expected showers and thunderstorms to develop once again today but more confined to the ridges. Look for lows in the low 60s Friday morning. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridge axis will move right over the Upper Ohio Valley. Southerly low-level flow will continue to advect warmer, moister air into the region. The upper level pattern will feature a slowing and active pattern as in the flow through the lower latitudes showing a weak trough digging into the the Middle Appalachian Region and pushing east. Strong riding exists along the east coast so the trough will be weakening as it arrives into the forecast area.
The upper high currently over the southwestern CONUS will flatten and expand some tomorrow as an upper-level low digs translate into the Northern Plains. GKendrick Northwesterly flow aloft will return for Friday evening as a trough skirting the northern Rockies flattens the high pressure dome across the southwestern states.
356 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Widespread clouds and a few scattered showers are in place across much of northeast and east-central Kansas this afternoon, underneath an upper trough axis. Where the current clouds and showers are, temperatures have stayed in the low 80s and even low 70s. However skies should quickly clear afterwards as the upper trough moves off to the east. WAA increases as lee troughing develops and SSW winds pick up to 10-15 mph. With mostly sunny skies underneath the ridge, this should allow for highs to rise into the 90s across most of the area.
1149 AM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021 An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the area today, bringing us modest west-northwest flow aloft, resulting in dry, warm conditions. High temperatures are expected to be mild for this time of year, with high-80s to low-90s over the eastern plains and 70s- 80s over the higher terrain.
Slightly drier in the lower levels, although PWAT was near 2 inches and with a descent cloud cover, activity was limited and ended in the late afternoon.
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Upper level trough is beginning to move into the region this afternoon.
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Warmer and more humid conditions will gradually build into the region late this week into this upcoming weekend. Low temperatures will reach the low-mid 60s overnight. By Friday morning, upper level trough will have moved into the Midwest region with strengthening southwesterly surface flow expected by late Friday morning into the afternoon. Chances remain low similar to previous forecasts given the lack of broad scale ascent associated with the upper level trough.
940 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Stout upper trough for early August continues to make slow but steady progress eastward across the Southern Plains this evening. Likewise, plenty of high cirrus ovhd tonight with some increasing AC coming into our western zones in the base of the upper trough. The current forecast has trended this way with overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s areawide. /issued 503 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ Upper level trough will swing through the region during this TAF period but convection in association with the trough currently across Eastern Oklahoma and North Texas will struggle to move much more south and east tonight.
901 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure continues to push east away from Michigan as an upstream cold front approaches the Western Great Lakes. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity has developed across the Upper Mississippi Valley right ahead of the cold front. Cold front will slide into Wisconsin overnight. with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. However, the main activity, which looks like showers, is associated with the cold front, and will move in from C Wisconsin/W Upper overnight. This weakening wave will be accompanied by a weak cold front.
The upper high currently over the southwestern CONUS will flatten and expand some tomorrow as an upper-level low translates into the Northern Plains. GKendrick Northwesterly flow aloft will return for Friday evening as a trough skirting the northern Rockies flattens the high pressure dome across the southwestern states.
With the old frontal boundary remaining stalled offshore, dew points are expected to remain in the low 70s to upper 60s, so overnight temps still look to be a bit below climatological normal.
720 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Slow moving convection today amid building high pressure. This activity should continue to diminish as instability decreases and the upper trough aloft departs further to the east. Weakening upper level flow aloft in response to a departing trough will deplete the movement of convection today, but should generally propagate north/northeastward before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. The departure of the trough will allow for a mid to upper level ridge axis and its adjoining building heights to spread drier conditions overhead overnight into Friday. This low level flow regime will also advertise slightly warmer afternoon highs on Friday, with some areas in the lowlands sneaking up near 90 degrees.
959 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Warmer and more humid conditions will gradually build into the region late this week into this upcoming weekend. A mid- level trough will slowly progress southeast from central Canada to the United States northern plains overnight. Low temperatures will reach the low-mid 60s overnight. By Friday morning, upper level trough will have moved into the Midwest region with strengthening southwesterly surface flow expected by late Friday morning into the afternoon. Chances remain low similar to previous forecasts given the lack of broad scale ascent associated with the upper level trough.
Large scale ridging, with lack of any forcing for ascent will allow for a quiet, warm day on Friday.
An upper level trough was moving across the region this afternoon. The upper trough will linger over the area tonight and into Friday.
The combination of a weak upper level low and strong afternoon heating led to isolated showers and storms. We expect min temps to start making higher-lows and run a few to several degrees warmer vs. Despite the increased cloud cover, guidance blend supports maxTs +1 to +4 degrees warmer than Thursday with readings peaking in the 80-90F range or about +2-5F above climo in most locations. Friday night will be mostly cloudy and noticeably warmer (+5-10F vs.
So far relatively quiet in our CWA as upper trough approaches from western Oregon. Around 7 PM PDT Burns,OR reported northwest wind gusts to 40 mph, probably outflow from thunderstorms farther west, but possibly due to the cold front that models push through our CWA tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight with cold front, decreasing Friday morning.
1037 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure will remain over the Lower Great Lakes through Friday. High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday leading to mainly dry weather most of the time, with a few minor exceptions. high pressure surface and aloft will drift towards the east coast, allowing for a light southwest flow to become established across our region. The trough over the central Great Lakes will remain well upstream through Friday night.
Overall a really nice day across eastern KY today with high pressure to our east and slight ridging aloft between the trough to our east and another one to our west over the central US. The low level Cu dissipates this evening and it will start out mostly clear tonight before high clouds move in overnight into tomorrow morning ahead of the approaching trough from the west. Despite the high clouds moving in, still expect some patchy river valley fog in the usual locations. Overnight low temps in the lower 60s. It will be a dry start to Friday with mid and high clouds increasing across the area ahead of the approaching trough.
Widespread clouds and a few scattered showers are in place across much of northeast and east-central Kansas this afternoon, underneath an upper trough axis. Where the current clouds and showers are, temperatures have stayed in the low 80s and even low 70s. However skies should quickly clear afterwards as the upper trough moves off to the east. WAA increases as lee troughing develops and SSW winds pick up to 10-15 mph. With mostly sunny skies underneath the ridge, this should allow for highs to rise into the 90s across most of the area.
Models show an upper level trof moving toward our region tonight. The trof will pass over most of our region Friday, and some models are producing some splotchy light QPF over our area. The trof will not move east of our region until the evening hours, but loss of heating should end any chances.
228 PM PDT Thu Aug 5 2021 An approaching trough of low pressure currently along the California coast will bring breezy conditions to the area this afternoon and again on Friday. Temperatures will also moderate to more seasonable levels Friday and over the weekend as strong high pressure that was over the area weakens. The Excessive Heat Warning will be allowed to expire this evening and temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow, returning readings closer to normal levels for this time of the year. The trough will move eastward Friday keeping wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across Lake Mead and the Colorado River Valley, and Mohave County.
Isolated convection may well fester through the overnight as mid level trough axis slowly passes across the region in line with current forecast.
The overnight hours will generally see VFR conditions but slight reductions will likely continue thanks to the high humidity and lingering wildfire smoke. Thus, the higher PoPs from the late afternoon and into the evening will be from southeast OK into western AR.