Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Weak surface cold front boundary has made it down to CYS as of 18Z with a quick temperature drop from 63 do 54 degrees in less than 10 minutes. The surface frontal boundary will retrograde as a weak warm front overnight into Wednesday. Expired the HWW headline for 18Z today, but do expect the high winds to make a return over the North Snowy Range terrain/I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sinclair around 9Z. Typically when model guidance trends toward the higher gusts starting for a high wind event over the wind prone areas, the stronger wind gusts observed via mesonet start slightly earlier, thus the 9Z timeline was chosen. Approaching cold front will reach central Wyoming by Wednesday afternoon with light rain showers starting in our northern zones toward sunset across Converse/Niobrara County.
822 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week.
607 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Cold front is making its way through the area this afternoon with a wind shift to the north as the only noticeable impact.
During this evening and the early overnight, winds shift to northwesterly bringing in cooler and drier air. One other exception could be areas such as Ivanhoe along the Buffalo Ridge, where morning drizzle and light rain could cause a thin glaze of ice on elevated surfaces before daytime temperatures warm above freezing.
343 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Warm front currently just south of Interstate 44 with scattered showers aligned across southern KS along elevated frontal zone and this corridor of higher precip chances will remain north of the OK / KS border this morning.
Dry conditions will persist through tonight and Wednesday morning, as low temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s. By Wednesday afternoon, low level winds will become southerly, pulling slightly warmer air into the region. But given the late arrival of southerly flow, afternoon highs will only rise a few degrees above today, reaching into the low to mid 50s. Warm air advection strengthens Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
A front remains stalled from the Ohio Valley to Central Texas while high pressure is centered along the Mid- Atlantic Coast. Wednesday is expected to remain dry as the area remains between the aforementioned features, however by Thursday moisture is expected to be pulled north from the gulf between the stalled plains front and the ridge to the east.
219 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. High pressure ridges remains along the southeastern United States coast. Wednesday will see the low clouds/fog erode again toward mid-late morning, but may be slower given surface inversion and lack of mixing. High pressure surface/aloft remain stuck across the coast into Thursday, locked in place by TS Epsilon east of Bermuda. Meanwhile, another upper trough works underneath this ridge across southern Georgia/Florida. At the surface the ridge will maintain mostly dry conditions as deeper Atlantic moisture stays south of North Carolina.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 60 81 62 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 56 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 80 56 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Today Through Thursday 19z subjective surface analysis indicates a warm front from near Fort Smith, to Russellville, to near Searcy. The warm front will be north of the state by late Wednesday morning. Dry conditions, and warmer than normal temperatures will prevail during the rest of this forecast period.
Above average temperatures expected today as ridging persists across the East Coast. Moisture from the Atlantic builds in across the far southeastern counties (south and east of I-85) this afternoon, and some model guidance hints at isolated to scattered showers, which would be associated with a weak upper level low that slowly meanders northerward out of the FL Peninsula. The weak upper level low persists across Southern Georgia through Thursday, so we could once again see isolated showers/thunderstorms across the southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, expect continued warm weather with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Recent water vapor imagery showing an upper trough traversing the northern Plains. A modest cold front with this wave was entering northwest Kansas at 19Z. The cold front with the progressive upper wave comes through in the late afternoon and evening Thursday with more widespread precip likely.
347 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure ridging in from the NE will maintain control of the weather for this area through Thursday with not much of any precip to speak of.
The broad upper level trough over the northern CONUS has begun to lift out, while the upper level ridge begins to strengthen over the southeastern CONUS. Additionally, model soundings show warming in the mid-levels associated with the subsidence beneath the strengthening upper level ridge. Low temps will range from the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s inland, while along the coast persisting around the lower 70s. An upper level trough quickly moves out over the northeastern CONUS into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Meanwhile, another upper level trough begins to move across the northwestern CONUS through Thursday.
358 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A weak developing warm front across the Sandhills has organized an area of light rain early this morning. Thereafter, skies may clear across the Panhandle allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 60s west of highway 83. The temperature forecast today leans on the warmer RAP and HRRR models. Tonight, strong warm air advection develops ahead of an arctic cold front, located near Edmonton Canada at 08z this morning. The arctic cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday.
1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Frankly, the previous forecast had most of the short term issues well in hand, including drizzle/light showers Wednesday, some thunderstorm risk in southeast forecast area and advancing cold front Thursday. The trough will pass/die out this evening. Thursday is a multi-seasonal day for the region with temperatures warming nicely ahead of a strong cold front slated to moving across the area during the day. The front will act to clear out the low level moisture but could spark a few showers/drizzle as it passes/just ahead of it. Anyway, the cold front cause falling afternoon temperatures for much of the area with much colder air settling Thursday night.
341 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Isolated showers will move across southeast Illinois for a few hours this morning, but dry weather will be the rule over the rest of central Illinois until later this afternoon when scattered showers and storms develop north of an advancing warm front over west central Illinois. Daytime highs should range from the upper 50s in the north, to the middle 60s in southeast Illinois, but become much warmer on Thursday, reaching to around 80.
Another warm fall day is expected across eastern TN as we remain situated between an upper trough to the northwest and ridging to the east, with the latter having more influence. Highs should be a degree or two above yesterday which means highs near 80 for much of the lower elevations in TN valley and southwest Virginia, with low 80s possible around Chattanooga. Expect patchy fog in the valley beneath mostly clear skies once again, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
403 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the work week.
High pressure will begin to wedge into the area starting Thursday morning and persist through the short term period.
Mostly cloudy skies are forecast today, and highs will be generally in the lower 80s, with a few locales in the mid 80s towards the Suwannee Valley and Altamaha River.
Current winds in the Arlington area where we have the High Wind Warning gusting in the low to mid 40 mph range.
A weak cold front will continue moving across KGUY and KDHT, but is expected to stall north of KAMA. /Issued 506 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ A cold front will push into the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle overnight. The low clouds, fog, and drizzle will slowly dissipate from southwest to northeast during the day on Wednesday which could cause a tight temperature gradient across the northeast CWA.
1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Skies have become partly cloudy to clear as the warm front surged to the north today, and temperatures warmed well into the 80s across the area. Tonight, winds will diminish around sunset to between 5 and 10 mph out of the south or southeast, and temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s.
A mid and upper level trough will lie in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight, before exiting offshore of the east coast of the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Meanwhile, a low level trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula and into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a confluent and very moist easterly trajectory.
208 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the end of the week. High pressure ridges remains along the southeastern United States coast. Wednesday will see the low clouds/fog erode again toward mid-late morning, but may be slower given surface inversion and lack of mixing. High pressure surface/aloft remain stuck across the coast into Thursday, locked in place by TS Epsilon east of Bermuda. Meanwhile, another upper trough works underneath this ridge across southern Georgia/Florida. At the surface the ridge will maintain mostly dry conditions as deeper Atlantic moisture stays south of North Carolina.
Models have now trended towards keeping the warm front south of us, but are differing on just how far south of us which has big implications for our temperatures. With the warm air aloft, rain will be the primary precipitation type, with surface temperatures determining whether it will stay as rain or fall as freezing rain/drizzle. Areas north of the I-90 corridor, especially those along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN, have a highest chance of seeing freezing rain/drizzle. This is based on ensemble guidance showing the area having high probability of temperatures below freezing during times of precipitation.
A rather tight temperature gradient is expected near the Oklahoma / Kansas border, with cooler temperatures and stratus to the north of the front.
A warm front along the I-44 corridor is expected to slowly lift north across E KS and N MO. The influx of warm air and moisture will make it feel more like spring with highs in the low 80s. This air mass reverses the direction of the warm front transforming it into a sharp cold front. As the cold front begins to march eastward, there enough CAPE to generate thunderstorms.
136 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week.
1133 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Cold front is making its way through the area this afternoon with a wind shift to the north as the only noticeable impact. Temperatures remain well above freezing, upper 30s to lower 40s, through that time period, so no freezing precipitation expected. Stronger cold front will enter northwest corner Thursday morning and sweep across the area by 18-21z, scouring out any fog and drizzle.
337 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Broad band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of cold front has moved into northeast Ohio and central Indiana, with some areas of heavy rain, and the potential for localized flooding. Early morning surface analysis shows a low centered over Lake Michigan with a cold front moving through northern Indiana. Yet the warm front won't make it back into the forecast area before morning, so overnight lows could potentially drop into the low to mid 40s in Michigan, with east to northeast low-level flow. The above mentioned warm front will lift north through the area on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm well into the 70s south, but only into the upper 60s north.
As lee side troughing leads to another low pressure system organizing in the Northern Rockies, boundary across southern Missouri is expected to lift north as a warm front. Strong cold front works through the area late on Thursday leading to another chance for convection. Much cooler conditions are expected through the weekend as another wave dives into the Pacific northwest and moves into the Plains. For the remainder of the forecast period a warm front gradually moves up from the south increases low cloud development lowering ceilings to 500-1000ft through the late morning and early afternoon.
A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky for the next couple of days. Our area valleys will drop in the lower 50s, while the nearby ridges will only fall into the upper 50s for most locations. Surface ridging just east of the Appalachians will be losing its influence over our area early in the period.
409 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Warm air advection associated with an area of low pressure will bring accumulating snowfall to central and east central South Dakota today. Freezing rain and sleet, which appears best between Highway 212 and 14, will be possible south of the moderate to heavy snowfall.
520 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Much of the same expected across the forecast area today with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow aloft will transition to more of a westerly flow this evening with the gradient tightening as an upper level trough digs into the northwestern CONUS. The aforementioned upper level trough will trek across the Northern Rockies on Thursday with the base of the jet brushing our far northern zones. Breezy conditions will once again materialize during the afternoon hours with coverage spreading further south in response to the trough's progression.
Another warmer than normal and dry day is on tap. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide dry, but warm weather over the region.
Rain and snow will continue through much of the day ahead of the next trough. This trough is dropping through British Columbia this morning and will pivot through the Northern Plains late tonight into Thursday.
Given synoptic-scale changes driving strengthening lee trough and fairly strong southerly low-level flow, the southern edge of the stratus will errode and effective front will retreat quickly. Most of the area should warm substantially by late in the day as the warm front moves into Kansas, but we'll need to watch trends with the stratus. A rather tight temperature gradient is expected near the Oklahoma / Kansas border, with cooler temperatures and stratus to the north of the front.
At the sfc, high pres remains centered over the mid-Atlantic, ridging southwestward into TX. Patchy fog has again developed acrs the area with some of the lowest vsbys noted acrs SE TX at this time.
547 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Isolated showers will move across southeast Illinois for a few hours this morning, but dry weather will be the rule over the rest of central Illinois until later this afternoon when scattered showers and storms develop north of an advancing warm front over west central Illinois. Daytime highs should range from the upper 50s in the north, to the middle 60s in southeast Illinois, but become much warmer on Thursday, reaching to around 80.
335 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Much of the same expected across the forecast area today with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow aloft will transition to more of a westerly flow this evening with the gradient tightening as an upper level trough digs into the northwestern CONUS. The aforementioned upper level trough will trek across the Northern Rockies on Thursday with the base of the jet brushing our far northern zones. Breezy conditions will once again materialize during the afternoon hours with coverage spreading further south in response to the trough's progression.
WAA from quick southerly winds (20 kts) will race the cold front approaching from the NW to get as much of CWA into warm sector. With the warmer temps comes dew points of over 60F allowing CAPE values to climb. But if anything, I too am on the low side.
An upper ridge over the southeastern states begins to retreat into the western Atlantic during the period as a broad upper trof over the northern CONUS gradually amplifies over the central states. The presence of the upper ridge over the region looks to produce sufficient subsidence to go with a dry forecast today, although a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out. As the upper ridge begins to retreat for the area on Thursday, model soundings show modest mid level cooling (less subsidence) sufficient to support mostly slight chance pops over the entire area on Thursday initiated by a combination of daytime heating and a weak sea breeze.
555 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky for the next couple of days. Our area valleys will drop in the lower 50s, while the nearby ridges will only fall into the upper 50s for most locations. Surface ridging just east of the Appalachians will be losing its influence over our area early in the period.
Today's maximum temperatures will only reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, with the cloud blanket keeping nighttime lows a bit warmer in the mid to upper 70s.
By 16-19z the warm front should lift north of the OK/KS border and as it does, VFR conditions will become prevalent through the remainder of the forecast period. /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/ Warm front currently just south of Interstate 44 with scattered showers aligned across southern KS along elevated frontal zone and this corridor of higher precip chances will remain north of the OK / KS border this morning.
647 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 A weak developing warm front across the Sandhills has organized an area of light rain early this morning. Thereafter, skies may clear across the Panhandle allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 60s west of highway 83. The temperature forecast today leans on the warmer RAP and HRRR models. Tonight, strong warm air advection develops ahead of an arctic cold front, located near Edmonton Canada at 08z this morning. The arctic cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday.
628 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Broad band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of cold front has moved into northeast Ohio and central Indiana, with some areas of heavy rain, and the potential for localized flooding. Early morning surface analysis shows a low centered over Lake Michigan with a cold front moving through northern Indiana. Yet the warm front won't make it back into the forecast area before morning, so overnight lows could potentially drop into the low to mid 40s in Michigan, with east to northeast low-level flow. The above mentioned warm front will lift north through the area on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm well into the 70s south, but only into the upper 60s north.
Tonight, a trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies and progress east towards the Northern Plains. This is well supported by ensemble guidance where 00Z EC/GFS mean ensemble probabilities keep the highest QPF axis along the southern border. However since almost all guidance shows frontogenesis fields maximized still to the south through the event, this northward high-end potential should be on the lower side of the probabilistic window. One positive side to the southward trend in the low is that freezing rain is much less likely than previously thought. Snow tapers off Thursday evening as high pressure settles in behind the trough.
Surface ridging just east of the Appalachians will be losing its influence over our area early in the period.
Warm air advection associated with an area of low pressure will bring accumulating snowfall to central and east central South Dakota today. Freezing rain and sleet, which appears best between Highway 212 and 14, will be possible south of the moderate to heavy snowfall.
409 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide dry, but warm weather over the region.
The weak cold front which slid into the northern sections is forecast to undergo frontolysis today, with south winds returning to the region this afternoon. For Thursday, breezy southwest winds and warmer temperatures are in store for the area just ahead of another strong cold front. This cold front should reach the OK Panhandle very late Thursday afternoon, then plow southward across the remainder of the OK Panhandle and all of the TX Panhandle Thursday evening and night.
Anticipate cloud cover to gradually diminish across the southern Tennessee Valley and daytime maximum temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s (cooler in the highest elevations of the mountains, of course). CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 60 81 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 56 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 80 56 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 20.
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the work week.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to provide dry, but warm weather over the region.
241 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 There is a broad upper level trough over the northern portion of the country. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward over the northern Rocky Mountains/northern Plains on Thursday.
1218 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Much of the same expected across the forecast area today with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow aloft will transition to more of a westerly flow this evening with the gradient tightening as an upper level trough digs into the northwestern CONUS. The aforementioned upper level trough will trek across the Northern Rockies on Thursday with the base of the jet brushing our far northern zones. Breezy conditions will once again materialize during the afternoon hours with coverage spreading further south in response to the trough's progression.
Otherwise, warm and breezy conditions expected to continue today and Thursday ahead of the next strong cold front Thursday night.
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 VFR with a developing CU field this afternoon over the Lower Trans Pecos into the Eastern Permian Basin.
Lows should again drop into the lower 60s primarily with decent radiational cooling expected. Some scattered cloud cover is shown in guidance moving up from the south on Thursday, as the upper low over SE Georgia moves NW into eastern Tennessee. A slight warming due to more southerly low level flow should allow highs to climb into the lower 80s again. On Thursday evening, several models forecast a longwave trough axis over the Midwest to kick east and finally give the stalled front to our northwest a kick to the east. Warmer and more moist air ahead of the front should keep lows a bit warmer, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s.
156 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 Bermuda high and upper ridging currently over the region is expected to hold really through most of Thu night, before breaking down on Fri. Around sunrise Fri, an upper trough and a weak cold front will be moving out of the plains, with this front expected to reach the MS river around sunset. Early Mon, another cold front is expected to be at our doorstep, which will move across the area Mon afternoon/evening.
Deeper leeside trough will support continued strong gradient through tomorrow supporting a windy day.
Temperatures have already climbed into the low/mid 80s today and should start to level off, so the forecast highs for this afternoon remain on track.