Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
So far, 2 or 3 storms formed on the pre-frontal surface trof/dry-line feature over the prairie coteau and began splitting. Northerly winds and cooler temperatures are in store for Wednesday behind the departing cool front.
Chances in the lower elevations of the eastern Tennessee Valley to low to include in forecast for Wednesday.
1135 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday.
942 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A deep layered anticyclone persists between the Azores and Bermuda. A ridge axis stretches west from the high and reaches across the Florida Peninsula. This is likely due to the temporary moistening effects of a weakly convective outflow, which spread through the Lower Keys around 530 PM.
However, given the excessive available moisture, have maintained a slight chance of showers/tstms into Wednesday morning, with the highest measurable rain chance east of Tucson. Medium range, a pattern like this with high pressure centered north and east of the area opens us up to easterly waves.
Morning temperatures across the northern tier of the US range from the 50s into the lower 60s.
The second feature is another cold front draped across the Ohio Valley, which models expect to sag southward into north Georgia today.
An area of low pressure should be located in our northeast Sunday afternoon. This system, along with a weak upper level trough will provide the necessary lift for afternoon convection.
845 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front will cross our region later today.
1049 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Cold front crosses this morning. Cooler and less humid under high pressure Sunday. Quieter weather expected in the near term, however still have potential for isolated showers until cold front and upper level trough make it through the forecast area. The cold front is currently in NW Ohio, and should cross through the forecast area by mid morning. Upper trough will then cross this afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air filters in late today and tonight, with temperatures bottoming out in the 50s early Sunday morning. Strengthening southwest flow in the lowest levels will bring in above average temperatures and surface dew points reaching the low 70's through the work week.
trough and LLJ arcing 310K. trough, which will help drag weak boundary Later today, weak boundary into western portions of forecast area by early afternoon. More pronounced LLJ tonight combined with speed max moving around eastern trough will result in scattered overnight convection.
Upper level ridging expands over the central US with SE TX lying on the periphery of the system. Heights begin to build with slightly warmer 850 temps. 43 High pressure will keep rather light winds and seas in place through the weekend.
77 inches and also cooler aloft at 500 mb (-8. Weak low-level troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South should suppress weak surface ridging to across the south-central FL peninsula, while ridging aloft continues across central Florida. The sea breeze formation may be a bit more delayed north of the Treasure Coast with current low- level ridge placement. With cooler air aloft, as well as some drier air in the mid-levels, will have to be on the lookout for some strong microburst winds with a few stronger cells. Max temps should reach the lower to middle 90s again before storms occur. Low-level ridge axis across the south- central peninsula today.
The question for today is will the cold front actually make it through the area and provide a semi drying trend. This will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers/storms this afternoon and into the evening as the cold front and outflow boundary provide the extra lift needed to get storms going. An amplified pattern continues for the second half of the weekend with ridging over the Western US and a trough through the Great Lakes and Central Appalachians.
High pressure over the upper midwest is expected to settle across Indiana and the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Slightly warmer and more humid air will arrive by Sunday evening as southerly winds begin to arrive as the high pressure system departs to our southeast. Surface analysis early this morning shows a trough of low pressure from NW Ohio to Central Indiana to southern Illinois. High pressure was across the Northern Plains. Thunderstorms were found ahead of the trough over Kentucky. GFS and NAM show NW flow developing aloft today as High pressure at the surface continues to build across the region.
Broad upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes region today to set up over the Eastern U. The upper ridging over the state has weakened, split and sunk southward leaving weak upper flow with abundant atmospheric moisture in place. At the surface, weak subtropical ridge holds over the C FL Peninsula with S/SW flow over N FL and E/SE flow over S FL for morning showers and storms around the Nature Coast that push inland during the day and slow moving boundary collision afternoon and evening storms from the Tampa Bay area into SW FL.
Great Basin upper ridge will intensify slightly today by approach of north Pacific upper trough, and high temps will be even a little hotter than yesterday.
Dry and less humid conditions will filter into the PAH forecast area today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High temperatures today will be seasonal in the middle to upper 80s, but dew points will be dropping off into the lower to middle 60s. Models show the high moving off to our east late tonight, so winds will shift back to the south on Sunday.
The focus for the extended remains on the heat and humidity as a broad upper ridge over the SW CONUS gradually translates eastward over the course of the week.
Weak cold front will remain over the Midlands overnight.
954 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A shower or thunderstorm will be possible in spots today before drier, less humid and slightly cooler air arrives tonight. Dew points are in the lower 60s. The low clouds near the boundary and the general trough are forecast to produce some light showers in west-central PA. The trough should pass to our east and things should improve cloud and showers late this afternoon and evening. So with the exception of some patchy fog near water bodies it should be a very cool overnight with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeastern cities. Previous: Expect a pleasant/comfortable (low- humidity) and rain- free end to the weekend with high pressure in control.
This increase in moisture will translate to a gradual upswing in thunderstorm activity and subsequently cooler daytime temperatures. With a mean BL mixing ratio around 5-6 g/kg, dewpoints should mix into the lower 50s or upper 40s later this afternoon.
While the low level jet will increase slightly, struggling to find any well defined focus for convection in the eastern zones of Minnesota/Iowa, so will maintain a dry forecast. Dry conditions continue on Sunday, but even warmer than previous days.
620 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Weak high pressure remains in control today, leading to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s. Boundary/cold front expected to be across the southern FA during peak heating.
Later tonight, lingering chances for thunderstorms will remain across southeastern Georgia as a pre-frontal trough moves into the area. Isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along both seabreezes, and coverage will generally favor the I-75 corridor and increase in coverage across southeast Georgia as a cold front approaches later tonight. Ridge axis remains south of the waters with south winds 10-15 knots with local sea breezes along the coast today, then another nocturnal surge expected tonight with SW winds at 15-20 knots with SCEC headlines possible. Ridge axis remains across the waters the rest of the period with general south flow at 10-15 knots or less and No Headlines are expected.
/issued 416 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Water vapor imagery shows a 500-mb ridge centered over the Great Basin and a 500-mb inverted trough over the northeast Mexican coast. Deep tropical moisture, in combination with the mid-level inverted trough, and light to moderate southeasterly winds, should enhance convection along the seabreeze again today. The mid-level ridge builds eastward, near the Four Corners region, on Sunday. Rain chances expected to be lower on Sunday due to drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 70s across the ranchlands to upper 70s near the coast under partly cloudy skies. High temperatures Sunday expected to be a couple of degrees warmer due to decreasing rain chances and less cloud cover.
1037 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather today through Sunday.
Elsewhere, expect thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain of Central and Southwest Montana near and after the noon MDT hour today. - Moldan An upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the region today and Sunday.
1059 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front across central Kentucky stretching SSW into Middle Tennessee can be discerned from surface obs and low level water vapor imagery indicating subsidence behind the front. Based on 1)current and expected afternoon instability and 2)the cold front and outflow boundaries from earlier convection providing a forcing mechanism for convective initiation, have bumped up PoPs slightly across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 67 88 66 / 50 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 86 64 / 50 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 65 86 64 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 61 84 62 / 40 10 0 0.
1116 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A shower or thunderstorm will be possible in spots today before drier, less humid and slightly cooler air arrives tonight. Dew points are in the lower 60s. The low clouds near the boundary and the general trough are forecast to produce some light showers in west-central PA. The trough should pass to our east and things should improve cloud and showers late this afternoon and evening. So with the exception of some patchy fog near water bodies it should be a very cool overnight with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeastern cities. Previous: Expect a pleasant/comfortable (low- humidity) and rain- free end to the weekend with high pressure in control.
It was associated with a cold front and upper system as they will gradually move through AR. Early this morning the cold front was from near KFSM to near KRUE to east around KJBR. Today Through Sunday Night Forecast will start with radar convection trends, with the highest over northwestern to north central AR to east central areas. The convection will gradually move southeast, with the highest rain chances over central to eastern areas. A northeast wind flow will be seen to the northeast of the front and drier and a bit cooler temperatures. The upper high pressure ridge starts to build into the region, and lower the chance of rain, while warm temperatures.
1122 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front will finish moving through the area this afternoon, with a diminishing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cold front over western NY will drop south and east this morning bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Secondary upper wave and heating instability may linger a few showers, especially over the higher terrain, through the day. Sfc temps will rise fairly quickly after sunrise as a mid-lvl ridge nudges in from the south. This mid-lvl ridge will be just enough of an influence to keep the region dry for the day.
High pressure will be the main weather influence, sinking southeast across the region today/tonight.
After Sunday, upper ridge will elongate eastward across the southern Plains with better mid-level flow well to the north of the area. GFS does hint at possibly an inverted trough approaching from the south by mid-week, which might bring some rain to parts of far southeast Oklahoma, but for now will keep the extended dry.
Tranquil weather returns to the area today as trough axis passes to our east, with NW flow/negative theta-e advection and general subsidence in our region. Afternoon highs may still make a run to near 80F given strong July sun but humidity will be markedly lower with dewpoints dropping into the low 50s for most of the CWA. Clear skies, light winds, and thermal trough overhead will lead to a seasonably cool night.
A persistent upper trough over eastern Canada and an upper ridge over the southwest U.
An upper level high will remain centered over the Great Basin with weak nnw flow aloft continuing over nrn CO. Will see sct storms develop over the higher terrain by midday with outflow boundaries allowing for some development along the front range urban corridor by mid to late aftn. The upcoming week will see a continuation of the summer pattern over the western United States with a strong upper ridge over the Rocky Mountain West.
TC Previous Discussion: A large and very strong upper level ridge across the western U. Another mainly dry and hot day is expected for Sunday with the upper ridge remaining firmly in place.
At the surface, areas of low pressure associated with the large-scale trough sit off the Nova Scotia coast and back into southeast Quebec as well. Troughing extends from this broad area of low pressure down the Eastern Seaboard and is reinforced across the Southeast by westerly flow over the Appalachians. No change to the temperature forecast for this afternoon, highs are still expected to reach the lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100 degrees.
Another storm cluster developed on the high Plains near the tail end of said front. More storm development is expected later today along outflow boundaries left behind by the storms over western AR/far eastern OK and by an MCV that the latest hi-res guidance suggests will develop from the high Plains storm cluster. After being a fixture over the western CONUS thru June and into early July, the data continues to suggest that the ridge aloft will slide east over the southern tier of states for this upcoming work week.
Weak cold front will move into the Midlands this evening and remain over the area overnight.
/Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017/ The upper level ridge over the Great Basin region will keep the Panhandles in northwest flow today and tomorrow.
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 The final round of late night convection is finally exiting the southwestern corner of the CWA at this hour, as a cold front continues south into northern Arkansas. Temperatures won't be particularly cool--still upper 80s for most--but with dewpoints falling into the low 60s, it should feel much better outside.
Little change in the airmass has occurred from what we saw yesterday, so expect highs similar to yesterday, just a degree or two warmer. A slightly drier boundary layer combined with warmer temperatures aloft will hold us to a FEW coverage on the afternoon cu field. This wave will bring us increasing mid/high clouds from the northwest through the night and result in return flow developing overnight, which will help keep lows tonight about 5 degrees warmer than what had this morning. Meanwhile instability and shear will be increasing over southern MN as a warm front lifts north into the area. Some uncertainty still exists as to how everything will come together, but a severe threat is certainly present, including into the nighttime as the low level jet strengthens and MCS development becomes possible.
925 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Not much too talk about today as high pressure only slowly yields to a cold front dropping southeast out of Canada. Surface cold front continues to exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning. with the upper level trough axis still holding over Michigan. Fast-moving cold front will drop SE thru Ontario today.
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough was rotating through Ontario. Trough will send a cold front south and backdoor the northeast zones late this afternoon and into the evening. Weak high pressure remains in control today, leading to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s. Boundary/cold front expected to be across the southern FA during peak heating.
An upper level ridge, with a center over the 4 Corners area, continues to dominate the weather across the western U. An upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska will gradually work towards the region today and tonight. Still should see high temps cool a few degrees versus yesterday due to a cooler start this morning.
1003 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front will pass through the region today.
Temperatures in western Nebraska mainly ranged from the low 60s to low 70s. A strong upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners region, as northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Central Plains. A weak cold front will drop south across the northwestern Sandhills this afternoon, with northwest winds behind the front, and dewpoints from 45 to 50. Despite the presence of a weak front, warmer air will push into the region, with highs across western and north central Nebraska mostly reaching the lower 90s, with near 95 in parts of southwest Nebraska.
With increasing large scale subsidence this afternoon in wake up passing upper trough, not expecting much of any potential of an isolated shower across the far southeast. Tranquil weather returns to the area today as trough axis passes to our east, with NW flow/negative theta-e advection and general subsidence in our region. Afternoon highs may still make a run to near 80F given strong July sun but humidity will be markedly lower with dewpoints dropping into the low 50s for most of the CWA. Clear skies, light winds, and thermal trough overhead will lead to a seasonably cool night.
While CAPE values are minimal, there is significant directional and speed shear just ahead of the surface warm front that will move across the forecast area later tonight. Tonight and Thursday Primary issue during this period is the passage of a deep upper trough and frontal system, and associated precipitation trends and heavy rainfall potential. The forecast area remained under the influence of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes and southeast Ontario, and upper level ridging. On Thursday, the upper level trof will move into the region, and the surface cold/occluded front will track through during the day. Most of the region should see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with the most significant amounts over northern WI, closest to the track of the surface and upper lows.
This convection was well ahead of the approaching cold front, which currently extends from low pressure over southern Minnesota into the central Plains. By Thu night, upper low closed off in Great lakes region and frontal zone has moved through. Weak short wave shows up in all operational models, sliding down back side of upper trof and bringing quick chance of more pcpn into central IL Fri night. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead of an advancing cold front.
In the meantime, a little stronger ridging in the mid levels with more of a westerly flow between 85H and 70H will allow some drier continental air at that level to move into the forecast area over the next couple of days.
Early morning temps once again look to fall mainly into the lower 70s for most locations. The upper-level ridge will be established across the Southeast on Thursday, warming up temps but not keeping us precip free. Highs will reach the lower 90s with scattered showers/storms possible by the afternoon. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week, but it will feel even warmer with lingering moisture, so look for heat index values around 100 degrees across the TN Valley.
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level low pressure system was over eastern SD and northeast NE.
This system will push east of the area on Thursday, with high pressure dropping in and bringing a return to dry and warmer conditions, along with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
945 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight, then moves off the coast Thursday. A cold front will move into the area this weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows weak 1017mb high pressure centered over SW VA, building in over the area from the north. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. leading to the ridge slightly building during the day. A return to more moisture and chances for thunderstorms each day as a cold front moves into the area this weekend.
900 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level ridging remains across much of the Southeast tonight, with only just a few isolated thunderstorms hanging on across northeast Florida. Rest of the forecast unchanged - expecting another hot and humid day tomorrow though we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms as the upper level ridge weakens some.
1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Widespread rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to roll over the area this afternoon as mid to upper trough and associated surface boundary moves northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Early this afternoon, the IR satellite imagery showed cooler cloud tops suggesting a weakening/decaying system as it moves northward, with drier and more stable air starting to surge behind it. Highs will be in the 70s along and east of I-29, and in the lower 80s west of I-29.
1101 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Warm air will surge into our region Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Weak high pressure will build in tonight produce clear skies.
A gradual inland warming trend can be expected through late week as high pressure builds over the region. Per 24 hour comparison temperatures are for the most part warmer, as much as 10 to 12 degrees warmer in the East Bay and dewpoint temperatures are higher everywhere, in the mid to upper 50s. As discussed earlier the marine layer will tend to compress into late week as an eastern Pacific mid-upper level high strengthens over NorCal. By the weekend upper level troughing will return. Temperatures across the region are generally running a few to several degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday as clouds cleared out more quickly and high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
as weak boundary layer ascent should occur based on the low-level veering profile. The upper-level ridge will be established across the Southeast on Thursday, warming up temps but not keeping us precip free. Highs will reach the lower 90s with scattered showers/storms possible by the afternoon. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week, but it will feel even warmer with lingering moisture, so look for heat index values around 100 degrees across the TN Valley.
At the surface, a deepening area of low pressure was moving northeast into northwest IA/southwest MN. Radar showed numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms pushing northeast ahead of the low across portions of central MN into central IA. Otherwise, a fairly nice day across our forecast area with temperatures in the middle 70s to the lower 80s. For this afternoon into this evening, looking for that low to continue deepening over southern MN as the attendant cold front swings northeast toward the area. Breezy/cooler/mostly cloudy conditions will be experienced Thursday along with scattered showers on the backside of the departing low. Scattered showers will slowly come to an end Thursday night as the low pulls northeast into southern Ontario Canada.
This first line of showers and thunderstorms will bring uncertainty to the second line which will be highly dependent on if the atmosphere has time to recover before the second line forms ahead of the cold front. The cold front is currently in northwest Missouri will move into central Missouri late this afternoon, then through the rest of the area this evening. An isolated tornado is also possible late this afternoon and evening particularly with the line of thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front with sufficient bulk shear of 45 to 50 knots along with surface CAPE values in excess of 3500J/kg. High pressure will move into the area with partly cloudy skies on Thursday with seasonal temperatures expected and this is reflected in forecast temperatures.