Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY. AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS. UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold front through the forecast area. Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures.
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015 Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100 and 105. Right now, it appears that the highest readings will be confined to far south central Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one more day.
725 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
807 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH NW WINDS AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR NOT FAR AWAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN TROPICAL PLUME OVER AZ/NM. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING. HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH APPARENT TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES COLDER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST, AS RECENT RUNS FROM THE NAM SHOW STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THEREFORE MOST PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THOUGH IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AREA OF LIFT WHILE A WEAK INCOMING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD.
UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED W-E ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STARTING TO DRIFT NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RW A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
/ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA.
925 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEY WITH WARMER THERMAL BELT AREAS ONLY COOLING OFF INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREES RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD STRONGER OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure takes control. , but overall expect a mostly clear night as high pressure builds into the region. This would be short lived as dry and warmer weather is expected Wednesday as temperatures warm 5 to 8 degrees warmer than today. 00Z TAFS: As high pressure builds over the region, expect VFR condtions at the TAF sites for the next 24 hours.
736 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IS PROGGED BY A FEW HIRES MODEL RUNS TO HELP INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GWO AND COLUMBUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THOSE NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE GENERAL LACK OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY UPPER RIDGE CENTER AND 700-500MB THERMAL CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z JAN RAOB. BUT THE HIGHER OVERALL RISKS OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. 17Z HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
500 MB RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY STABLE ATMS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE RGV REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WED.
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS NW OK THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BUT WITH NO OTHER SUPPORT PRESENT NEAR OUR REGION.
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN THAT FAR SE CORNER. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE NW. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
616 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CWA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO KDHT AND KGUY. /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY THROUGH AMARILLO NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN. WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING NORTHERN WI.
1046 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH NW WINDS AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR NOT FAR AWAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN TROPICAL PLUME OVER AZ/NM. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING. HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH APPARENT TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES COLDER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST, AS RECENT RUNS FROM THE NAM SHOW STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THEREFORE MOST PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THOUGH IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AREA OF LIFT WHILE A WEAK INCOMING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD.
A BONAFIED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAG THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT.
CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
853 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 WE HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN NICELY AT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. DROPPING OFF TOWARDS SUNSET AS MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD. RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CWA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
595DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY NOSES INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE AND 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO POOL DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ALREADY VERY HIGH ACROSS THE DELTA. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WEDNESDAY ELECTED TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
/ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U. DML WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUING WITH THE REGIME THAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OVER THE LAST WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S LOOK GOOD BASED ON DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND NO REAL ADVECTION GOING ON. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERS HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS.
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY.
1238 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN'T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
THIS AREA WILL LIKLEY COOL INTO THE LOW 70S. 595DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY NOSES INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE AND 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO POOL DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ALREADY VERY HIGH ACROSS THE DELTA. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WEDNESDAY ELECTED TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z. BUT FOR THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
EXITING UPPER TROUGH MOVING FARTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND REGION WILL LEAD TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AND WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPS AT H85.
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 5H RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE FOR THE NEAR TERM. AND THIS IN TURN WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DEPICT THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THIS DEEP AND WARM RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL IS IN PLACE RIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS CAN OCCUR DESPITE LATENT HEAT OF SHALLOW WATER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE IN THE HIGH 80S AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AS A TROUGH TRIES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 29/16Z-30/00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015 Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100 and 105. Right now, it appears that the highest readings will be confined to far south central Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one more day.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD. AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WITH BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERS HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS.
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE PUTTING SOME CLAMPS ON THE PROSPECT OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE ALL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. GOOD HEATING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR WILL BE DRY.
AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS. UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U. DML WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE PUTTING SOME CLAMPS ON THE PROSPECT OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE ALL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. GOOD HEATING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR WILL BE DRY.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOW 70S. 595DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY NOSES INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE AND 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO POOL DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ALREADY VERY HIGH ACROSS THE DELTA. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WEDNESDAY ELECTED TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE.
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west oriented trough across north FL, and a weak, broad low pressure system across central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a high pressure system centered over AR, and lower heights across much of the eastern CONUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.