Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Though a nearby surface trof is helping to spur the activity, it is still expected to be largely diurnal in nature and diminish this evening. Moving into Monday, capping will be a little stronger with warmer 7H temperatures and 5H ridging starting to build in.
Deep layer high pressure is over the northern Gulf coast today and will remain in place through the evening. This ridging has allowed temperatures to warm up quite a bit already today, with 1PM temperatures already in the low to mid 90s everywhere except the FL Panhandle. A deep ridge will persist over our area, resulting in a typical summertime pattern where the sea breeze and outflow boundaries will be the main forcing for daytime showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue, with highs generally in the low-mid 90s.
This will increase the low-level moisture convergence across eastern Maricopa and Pinal counties and the latest runs of the HRRR along with the University of Arizona WRF(NAM) confirm that this will trigger at least isolated convection in these areas. CIN remains plentiful and it is unlikely that organized convection will develop across the lower deserts near Phoenix this evening.
622 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure over Quebec will gradually build east through today as a weak area of low pressure moves into southern New England.
336 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Convection has blossomed within the last several hours across north central KS to the north of the retreating warm front within a region of good WAA/MCON associated with a southwesterly LLJ, and in advance of a weak disturbance aloft. Glass It still appears that the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will occur later tonight into Monday attendant with the slow east/northeast lifting warm front, a broad region of WAA/MCON associated with west-southwesterly low-level flow, and a weak disturbance aloft. This broad zone favoring showers and thunderstorms will then continue to shift across eastern MO and into western IL on Monday in response to the building ridge aloft, northwesterly steering flow, and a west-southwest LLJ.
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over the BC/ALTA border with an upper jet on the southern periphery. An upper level short wavelength ridge precedes the trough over eastern MT. Warm advection precip was occurring on east side of ridge. Upper level trough will move into central SASK by Mon amd will send a cold front into the Red River Valley Mon afternoon/Mon night. Westerly flow aloft will be over the area and a low amplitude upper ridge axis will be over the area at 84 hours.
602 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain just north of the area today and tonight.
Some of the high res models try to fire off some showers or a thunderstorm along the lake breeze this afternoon, but this seems ambitious given the lack of deep moisture. High pressure continues the quiet trend into tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Enjoy as we will see much warmer temps coming in later this week. Mid level ridging will be in control though a weak vort axis is proggd to affect the western cwa in the afternoon. 925 temps modify 20 to 23c during the afternoon so many locales back into the low 80s.
Moderate delta breeze in progress this evening with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago many areas. Some stations are showing temperatures are running slightly warmer but most are indicating temperatures are running slightly cooler. The winds through the delta will be stronger tonight and will help to bring cooler air into the valley overnight. A trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will help to push the high pressure area south slightly to bring some synoptic cooling to the region through Sunday.
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Broad upper level troughing will again be in place today. We do see a change to a more northerly upper level flow by Sunday night as upper ridging builds over TX. However, cape values are on the low side despite neutral to slightly favorable omega values at 00z. Over the ext period, upper ridging over TX will strengthen and shift east.
Cooler mid level temperatures along with some higher 850mb to 700mb moisture. On Sunday an upper level ridge axis will build east into the Central High Plains and the 24 hour 850mb temperatures change from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday will warm 6-8C. At this time however given the warming in the mid level and where the better low level forcing will be located late day any thunderstorms that do develop will likely occur along the surface lee trough located in eastern Colorado. On Monday a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen over eastern Colorado as the westerly flow across the Rockies continues.
/06Z TAFS/ Mid level ridging has strengthened over the nrn Gulf coast with relative weakness over Mexico setting up a pressure gradient over South Tx. The lack of any significant ridging over the area has once again kept our temps fairly moderate today. We are transitioning however into a pattern where upper ridging will once again get established. With the ridging starting to take hold on Sunday.
245 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary along the Ohio River, with weak ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes southward into Illinois. Aside from a few patches of clouds, skies are currently mostly clear beneath the ridge axis. With ridge axis overhead today, synoptic subsidence will keep convection at a minimum. Afternoon high temperatures will be similar to yesterday in the lower to middle 80s. As an upper-level ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest begins to build slowly eastward, the first in a series of nocturnal storm complexes will develop along its periphery tonight. Next nocturnal storm complex will develop along the building upper ridge Monday night, with all signs pointing to an initiation point further east across eastern Iowa/southern Wisconsin.
but prog trends suggest the highest potential for a severe threat is east of the stateline in the Dakotas. Cold front is progged to move through Billings around 900 pm, and the remainder of the region overnight shifting winds from westerly to northerly for several hours. Weak return flow on Monday will mean cooler temps and less instability with a better capped environment.
Drier air will work into the region today behind the passage of a weak cold front. Temperatures will respond with highs 6-8 degrees cooler then yesterday, which puts them right about normal.
Even though an upper level (near 300 MB) low becomes centered over Central Texas today through Monday, the mid level (near 500 MB) Subtropical Ridge builds west from the northern Gulf of Mexico coast into Eastern Texas. The Ridge brings mid level subsidence, warming, and drying resulting in no rain.
As high pressure slowly flattens out due to a passing trough this evening, moisture will transport into the Four Corners from the west and southwest. That's a huge discrepancy and seems to be an issue with handling the passing trough. Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US through the week.
The longwave trough axis will shift through the area on Sunday changing the mid/upper flow from west-southwesterly to northwesterly which should reduce our chances for showers/storms somewhat. There will still be a window of opportunity in the afternoon /most favored in central Ohio/ for diurnally forced showers isold/sct showers and storms before subsidence on the backside of the longwave trough axis shuts things down by Sunday evening. Models continue to show a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes on Monday In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s.
Ridging continue aloft overnight as atlantic high pressure reaches across the state with generally light and mostly east and southeast low level flow. Atlantic high pressure ridges over central FL and into the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the weekend.
334 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A look at the early morning water vapor imagery shows plenty of mid- upper level moisture trapped across the Desert Southwest within a relatively flat west-east oriented ridge that spans much of the southern CONUS.
451 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes which remains through 00z Mon.
Expect the 500 mb ridge axis to build steadily westward later today and tonight which will likely result in a more stable and drier airmass in place over the RGV. Expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail for all three RGV airports throughout the upcoming 24 hours due to the influence of the 500 mb Gulf ridge axis.
Temperatures could wind up being warmer than forecast today if the clouds do not move in from the west until late. I nudged them up a bit but if there is sun most of the afternoon it would be even warmer. Similarly if the cloud cover is persistent tonight the lows may need to be higher.
1038 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 Current surface map places elongated area of low pressure from southern Montana into eastern Colorado. Upper level trof is moving into the central Rockies. Upper trof moves into the central/northern plains this afternoon with 700-500mb low closing off over central/eastern South Dakota this evening. Monday/Monday night Trowal develops on back side of upper low, with snow wrapping back into northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota.
331 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and Monday. High pressure will crest over the area Monday night before shifting east.
A negatively tilted upper level trough will swing into the Northern Plains tonight. Models continue to indicate a brief period of warmer temperatures aloft and the potential for freezing rain and sleet over portions of the James River Valley this evening. Temperatures will remain near the critical freezing threshold for much of the overnight and daytime hours of Monday across the James Vally. Eventually colder air will advect in and change the rain/freezing rain to all snow by Monday night.
With the approach of a cold front winds veer more southwesterly by late morning which will help to mix out and lift cig bases.
Large scale pattern features an amplified trough over the Southwest CONUS to Northern Great Basin early this morning that will be lifting into the Central Plains, ultimately amplifying into a closed low over the Northern Plains this evening. Meanwhile, moisture will be transported into the area, more so across central and eastern NEB, as the upper trough trough lifts eastward. Surface dew points will likewise approach the lower to mid 40s in eastern north central NEB. As the cyclone develops today, westerly winds will increase this afternoon to 10 to 14 kts. Monday the low pressure system lifts northeast, deepens and slows.
1016 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 The lead wave in the upper trough rotating through the Rockies today lifts across the northern plains while another wave in the series phases into the south end of the trough and sweeps east of the Rockies tonight and across the southern plains on Monday. Additional energy diving into the back side of the trough on Monday creates a large low pressure area that stalls over the north central U.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a developing storm system in southeast Colorado.
Dry air is moving over the Keys area this afternoon while an area of high pressure is building over the mid Atlantic Coast. The result of the building ridge, we have northeast winds near 10 knots at the island terminals, and.
A cooler weather system Sunday night into Monday will bring the potential for light snow accumulations to the valley floors.
303 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Band of showers developing within low level theta ridge under weakly diffluent flow aloft to move eastward into the forecast area during the late afternoon/early evening. Anticipate bulk of rain to be exiting into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon with some patchy light rain continuing until the upper trough passes. Upper low will continue to wobble around the northern plains into midweek leaving the region within a dry and seasonably cool southwest flow.
An upper level low combined with a couple of fronts will keep rain chances in the area at times from tonight into mid week. Overnight, the first round of energy from an upper low across the Dakotas will move in from the west.
Surface observations from across South Texas show dewpoints are several degrees warmer than this time 24-hours ago. KCRP VWP is showing winds 25 knots through the lowest 5kft of the atmosphere, this is expected to increase towards 40 to 45 knots by early Monday morning. Cold front to our north Monday morning will continue to work its way southeastward during the day with winds veering more towards the southwest. There is a small chance that a stray shower could develop within the prefrontal trough late Monday morning before the entire system pulls farther northeast.
302 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure over the upper ohio valley will move off to the east through monday.
358 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 Widespread rain due to a deep low pressure center moving from the northern Rockies into eastern South Dakota will overspread the region late tonight from west to east.
252 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 A strong PV wave will race northeast across the central plains for today into tonight, with associated cold front and scattered line of showers/embedded thunderstorms. Strong subsidence behind the upper trough will over spread the area and end precipitation chances for southeast Kansas by late tonight. Dry weather conditions expected on Monday with westerly down slope flow boosting temperatures into the low 60s.
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 A surface cyclone over eastern Colorado will rapidly intensify as an upper level system ejects north-northeastward into the northern plains today. Mid level cooling and daytime heating will result in steep lapse rates so that strong winds should mix to the surface behind the cold front that has been modified by downslope. Cooler air will persist in the wake of the system for a few days as deep upper level troughing remains across the central and northern plains.
Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.
A trough that moved thru the Four Corners this morning is now ejecting into the upper Midwest, and all attention now turns to a secondary trough over srn NV. However, 0- 6km deep lyr shear looks impressive, and if large-scale ascent ahead of the trough can bust the cap, a few cells could develop over the eastern zones later this afternoon/tonight. The trough will move thru the region early Monday, but it still looks to be a windy day across the NW. In addition, the incoming trough should shunt most of this mid/hi cloud ESE, to allow for better afternoon mixing. Although the speed max rounding the base of the trough will exit West Texas by 18Z, models keep the winds up behind it during the afternoon.
1250 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A departing area of high pressure will bring sunny skies to the region today. An intensifying low pressure area will bring advancing rain showers, with the chance of rain increasing from west to east through the day on Monday, and especially Monday night.
Another short wave trough will pass over the region tomorrow morning. The timing of the passage of the trough axis is not optimal for strong winds with wind maxes aloft moving east or south of the region by late morning.
128 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 A cold front continues to traverse the region this afternoon. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
229 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through tonight then move offshore Monday.
Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a broad longwave upper trof over the western U. The latter will lift into the northern plains on Monday, while the Great Basin upper low will open and eject in a negative orientation into the Midsouth from the southern plains late Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Monday morning, ahead of a surface pressure trof, followed by a strongly-forced linear thunderstorms. As such effective lifted parcel level will prevail above the strong veering in the lowest 50-100mb. However, a narrow corridor of surface-based instability may be tapped along the cold front over east central AR and north MS, where the nocturnal inversion is weaker and surface dewpoints prevail at or above 60F.
Severe weather threat will increase significantly by Monday afternoon and evening as the large and intense sfc and upper level cyclone moves over the midwest.
216 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure will move off to the east on Monday. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Monday night and mid week. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A high pressure system will move off to the east, allowing for southerly winds to increase later tonight into Monday. Due to the winds, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows for the western counties. Lots of dry air in the lower levels, so precipitation trying to come into the area from the west will have to break through this layer. A cold front will be knocking on our western doorstep to start the period, moving through Monday night.
236 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Water vapor imagery this afternoon has the main upper trough lifting northeast out of Wyoming while an upstream trough was surging southward over western Oregon. With these stronger, veering winds in the lower levels, there is a small chance an isolated storm forms within the better ML CAPE and produces damaging wind gusts. Residual clouds from the stacked upper low to the north during the day Monday may reach as far south as northern Kansas, otherwise skies are partly sunny with highs warming back to near 60 degrees. Large scale upper low pivots slowly across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes through late in the week.
1234 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will be off the coast Monday. Moisture will increase in the southerly flow on the backside of the offshore high and ahead of an approaching weakening cold front.
410 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will move east tonight. Moisture will increase Monday as low pressure travels to Minnesota, with widespread showers expected Monday night.
Stacked high pressure remains in place across the region this afternoon, with a low-level northeast wind flow. For tonight through Monday, the ridge aloft will continue to build across the east coast in response to a deepening trough moving into the central part of the country. This pattern will also make it more humid than it has been lately and will moderate temperatures, with highs several degrees warmer than those for today. A dual jet structure driven by a 150 knot northerly stream phasing with a 150 knot southern stream will allow a deep trough to develop over the central U. at the start of the period and edge out the subtropical ridging over Florida and off the eastern seaboard.
1102 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High clouds are increasing across the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough currently located across the Rocky Mountains. For the update, increased the cloud cover with high clouds moving in quicker than anticipated and lowered the high temperatures slightly with the hourly temperatures currently running a bit behind. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 45 64 54 / 0 0 20 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 40 64 52 / 0 0 10 100 Oak Ridge, TN 59 41 62 51 / 0 0 10 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 33 59 47 / 0 0 0 90 NC.
329 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Upper trough axis continues to move toward the forecast area with strongest push of large scale motion for ascent occurring this afternoon over our forecast area just ahead of the trough axis. Latest surface analysis shows center of the low over south central Nebraska and this continues to quickly move northeast. Near-term CAM's support this and do indicate some heavier QPF values spreading across northeast Nebraska through 03Z where strongest large scale lift will reside as the upper trough continues into the eastern Dakotas.
1238 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High temperatures this afternoon are forecasted to reach into the mid 40s south of Fort Wayne and slightly cooler to the north and east due to low level cloud cover that has kept temperatures in the 30s throughout the day. Widespread rain due to a cold front will begin Monday night and continue until Monday night.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge running from southern Saskatchewan southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and back down into the southern US Plains. A trough drops down from british Columbia into the Four Corners and is attempting to latch up underneath this ridge over the central US Plains. As this couplet moves east it will begin to form a closed low over the dakota Minnesota border in a wrapping motion. Farther west another ridge trough couplet is forming over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tonight: Weak meso-ridge overhead will get pushed north as the top of the synoptic trough moves in and cools off the area with light CAA. CLosed low to the east will spin up, and deepen, gradually pushing its increasing influence back to the west near the MT/Dakota border.
Temperatures have stayed in the lower to middle 40s which was the concern yesterday ahead of the system due to thick low clouds.
Enough instability has developed just ahead of the cold front to support scattered surface based thunderstorm development.
Large upper level trough remains over central and western portions of the USA for a persistent northwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
419 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 Fair weather will accompany the arrival of high pressure later today and last through Monday.
248 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 The upper trof is already beginning to intensify across the northern high plains while the flow aloft shifting west to northwest over Colorado. With confidence low on this wind event will leave the high wind watch in place for now. Overall snow amounts will be on the lower side of criteria but gusty winds will still create impact on the mountain passes.
1131 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 The lead wave in the upper trough rotating through the Rockies today lifts across the northern plains while another wave in the series phases into the south end of the trough and sweeps east of the Rockies tonight and across the southern plains on Monday. Additional energy diving into the back side of the trough on Monday creates a large low pressure area that stalls over the north central U.
1249 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure and warmer air will move over the region tonight into Monday.
Cold front associated with the approaching upper trough is on track for a predawn passage over far NW portions of the CWA with a few showers and thunderstorms depicted by most model runs to enter into the Nrn Hill Country at or just before 12z.
The passage of the actual cold front will likely hold off until after 18z. Some patchy freezing fog was also occurring in some of these areas. Ahead of the trough axis. areas across the SRN/SERN portion of AR in close proximity to the higher moisture axis. will also be the region where the low level SRH values are forecast to be highest. if any storm were to become SFC based in this region of overlap between the higher moisture and high 0-1 km SRH (forecast values of several hundred m2/s2).
259 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A warmup will get underway tomorrow as high pressure moves off the coast.
Heaviest and most widespread snow to occur tonight as that secondary low pressure system tracks across Carbon County.