Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
504 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a westerly flow aloft being underneath the base of an upper level trough. Going into the overnight hours, forecast models show the CWA taking a northwesterly flow aloft as the trough moves eastward with a western ridge moving in behind it. On Sunday, model guidance shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow throughout the day being under the front part of the upper air ridge with the trough closing off into a low over IL off to the east. Daytime highs expect to be warmer than Saturday's being in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows ranging between the middle and upper 40s.
A shower or two may come off of the higher elevations later this evening as a short wave spins around the upper level low but with dry low levels chances look to remain unlikely. With the remnants of Kay undercutting the ridge and helping to push it east we are seeing much cooler conditions today with high temperatures expected to be 10-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
625 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low will drop into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday with high amplitude ridging setting up along the spine of the Rockies resulting in northwesterly flow across West Texas. The cold front that moved through this morning is in the process of washing out across WFO Midland's northern row of counties though a slow southward drift is still indicated. Lows tonight should drop into the 50s areawide with the exception of our southeastern counties which will likely make it only into the lower 60s. Much cooler on Sunday with 70s likely though a few locations may struggle to make it out of the 60s given the cloud cover.
532 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Dry and stable air will continue to filter into the area tonight into Sunday as an upper level low pressure drifts southeast.
Highs on Sunday will be around 15 degrees warmer as an upper level ridge continues to build over the region, although smoke may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.
347 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas.
A cold front is approaching northwest Arkansas and will move into the state tonight.
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) A 500mb trough axis extending from a closed low over Louisiana into the southwest Gulf of Mexico with a mid-level ridge over western Texas into northern Mexico this afternoon.
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) A pre-frontal trough/wind shift continues to move across Oklahoma this afternoon. The cold air is lagging behind the initial wind shift with the actual cold front/secondary surge ~3 counties to the northwest. The cold front will continue to advance to the southeast tonight with a cooler and drier air mass in its wake.
Most of this activity has avoided the Lower Keys thanks to a steering flow from the south- southeast in our western waters. This contrast is due to a mid to upper level trough residing across the central portions of the Gulf of Mexico that is retrograding back to the west. At the same time the subtropical ridge is nosing back in from the east. East to southeast breezes will persist through the overnight as high pressure rebuilds across Florida and the Southeast United States.
Min temps within 5-10 degf of current temps likely over the ern half of the area, while drier air spreading toward the Continental Divide will allow some near freezing temps in high mountain area and around Leadville.
Cloud-free skies and light winds this evening should continue overnight as high pressure moves in from the west.
Weak moist upsplope flow in advance of cold front moving south across the southern TX Panhandle providing up sufficient forcing to convect low CAPE, approx 800 J/kg^2. -JH (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low will drop into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday with high amplitude ridging setting up along the spine of the Rockies resulting in northwesterly flow across West Texas. The cold front that moved through this morning is in the process of washing out across WFO Midland's northern row of counties though a slow southward drift is still indicated. Lows tonight should drop into the 50s areawide with the exception of our southeastern counties which will likely make it only into the lower 60s. Much cooler on Sunday with 70s likely though a few locations may struggle to make it out of the 60s given the cloud cover.
554 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Weak upper trough will remain over the north-central Gulf of Mexico during the period while an upper ridge holds over the Texas Big Bend. A weak pre-frontal trough will move through the area by early Sunday morning.
Expect a mostly quiet night, though I cannot completely rule out some weak shower development in our moist airmass and with the upper low lingering in the vicinity. A closed low over NE Louisiana continues to pull moisture northwards. By tomorrow, the closed low is expected to dissipate as the upper trough begins to swing northeast out of the region. The highest chance of rain will remain in the northeast, as the moisture return of the upper trough pushes northeastwards.
853 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the gulf, northeast across the area Tonight, with an upper trough to the west.
The main story with the forecast is today's cooler temperatures and lingering precipitation. Brought temps up slightly due to model guidance, however, a few areas may be a tad cooler. Clear skies and dry conditions are expected Sunday through mid-week as an upper level ridge moves in from the west.
The upper trough that has been parked over the northern Gulf will continue to lift out through the overnight hours and through Sunday. An upper level trough will continue to lift north through Sunday.
A cold front moves through the area late tonight into Sunday bringing widespread showers and storms. The cold frontal showers and storms are approaching from the W-NW as advertised, and will overspread areas west of I-55 after midnight. The advance of the cold frontal showers is just slightly ahead of the previous forecast, so minor timing changes were made to the PoP and weather grids.
218 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Atmospheric moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will be responsible for elevated rain chances this weekend.
(Rest of tonight) Evening model guidance suggests that a mid/upper-level trough (currently centered across the Lower MS Valley) will gradually weaken and lift northeastward into northern MS by 12Z, as an amplifying vort max digs southeastward across the northern Plains. Although synoptic scale ascent directly related to the trough will not be particularly strong across our region, mid-level south-southwesterly flow will strengthen to 25-35 knots as this occurs, with the resultant increase in deep-layer warm advection likely to result in an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours. Current thinking is that convection to the southwest of the local area may diminish a bit in coverage through the late evening hours, before expanding in coverage in the 6-12Z timeframe along an axis from western TN southeastward into central AL as the trough approaches.
(The rest of tonight) Prefrontal convection continues to gradually wane while cold front is making steady progress southeastward. Update increased cloud cover overnight and incorporated observed cold frontal position. (Sunday through Saturday) The front will bring a cooler and noticeably drier airmass into the region for a few days.
8" precipitable water (around the 75th percentile for this time of year) was in place ahead of an approaching surface cold front. In general, up to a half inch of rainfall is forecast with this event, with the highest numbers in the far eastern tier of counties. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50s (upper 40s possible north) for the coolest night of the short term.
Otherwise, today the mid/upper level trough that lingered over the Southeast and brought rainfall to the TN Valley over the past few days will finally move. As it lifts NE, it will run into the high anchored along the east coast and be absorbed into a trough swinging through the Upper Midwest. As the system deepens it slides into the Great Lakes, it will pull a cold front southeastward into the region. Daytime highs will be warmer today with temps reaching the lower 80s, a few degrees below seasonal norms.
307 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 06Z surface data has the cold front running from northern Lake Huron into northwest Arkansas. During the afternoon the upper low will begin moving into the area and help initiate a new round of rain that will increase in areal coverage through sunset. Tonight the upper low will pivot across the area. During the pivoting of the upper low, rainfall rates are expected to increase and cause heavy rainfall over roughly a 6 to 9 hour time frame. Details: Monday and Monday night: Stacked upper low will continue to slowly push eastward into northern Indiana by late in the day. However, if the low is slower than currently depicted then some of these showers could linger into Monday evening, mainly east of the Mississippi River.
344 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 The Northern Plains sit under northerly flow aloft early this morning, with a downstream trough near the Upper Mississippi River Valley and upstream ridging building over the Northern Rockies. Benign weather will persist through the short term period, with rising heights and a weak surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Lower Missouri River Valley and low pressure over Saskatchewan. Another night of strong radiational cooling lies ahead, but warmer boundary layer temperatures should keep frost out of the forecast. The atmosphere will be too dry for any precipitation, and the trough will make little dent in the mean ridge building to the west. The 75th percentile of NBM guidance was once again used for the high temperature forecast as the westerly boundary layer flow should promote strong mixing.
931 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas.
The upper low has opened up into a broad mid/upper level trough over the deep south. This is where the higher rain chances will remain overnight into Sunday as the upper level trough continues just west of the area. A closed upper low centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley will gradually deepen and slide over the Great Lakes regions on Monday. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s areawide on Sunday and in the low/mid 80s NW of I-65 on Monday to mid/upper 80s SE of I-65.
126 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow the remainder of the week. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a backdoor cool front that will slide into the region Monday night and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northern half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi-active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture (and the remnants of Kay) will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps.
(Today through Monday night) 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough digging over MN/IA/MO and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Disturbance in this flow aloft and low level saturation in the wake of our recent cold front have combined to generate some light showers with a couple rumbles of thunder overnight. Monday, the transient upper ridge that had been progged to slide overhead has trended weaker over the last few model runs.
- Cooler and drier air continues to settle in on Sunday. Forecast Thoughts: A deep mid latitude trough continues to advance through the northern Plains with the southern flank extending into Nebraska and northern Kansas. But, from here, should be mostly beneficial light to moderate rainfall for the balance of the afternoon into the early evening before coming to an end again from west to east with passage of the H5 trough. High temps on Sunday should top out in the 70s with dewpoints falling into the low 50s and upper 40s. Into Monday and the rest of the work week, a ridge builds over the central CONUS.
258 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Relatively benign conditions today through Monday as high pressure south of our area continues to move away and weaken. Winds around the high will aid in mixing today, and become more universally southerly by Monday with a slight uptick in both speeds and temperatures. Skies expected to remain clear, however the HRRR starts bringing elevated smoke overtop of the ridge aloft during the afternoon Monday.
(Today and Tonight) Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind a southeastward advancing cold front. With the drier air, clearing skies and light to near calm winds expected with surface ridging overhead, it will be a chilly start to the work week Monday morning. The typical cooler valley locations are likely to drop into the 40s, with 50s elsewhere.
237 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Concerns for patchy frost early this morning with current temperatures already in the lower 40s in some areas of the Sandhills. For today, the upper trough and closed low will move into the Great Lakes and Midwest as upper ridging as weak warm air advection kicks in across western Nebraska. The upper ridge influence with warm air advection will push afternoon highs to the upper 80s to around 90 across the west and near 85 in the east. In this area, fire weather concerns will be due to the low humidity as surface winds will be light as southwest winds become northwest.
/Issued 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022/ /Through Monday/ The latest satellite imagery indicates an upper trough making its way east through the Plains with a ridge still situated over the Desert Southwest. The motion of the trough will aid in the southward push of a cold front, which was near a line from Sherman to Graham at midnight. The primary effect will be the introduction of a drier and slightly cooler airmass, making for relatively pleasant weather for the start of the week.
Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through the region.
(Today and tonight) The cold front that brought cooler temperatures and isolated thunderstorms has moved to the south of the CWA as of about 12 am this morning. Low clouds should begin to decrease in coverage by early afternoon as some drier air advects into the region from the north as the upper trough to our north shifts east.
Lingering low clouds will continue dissipating and move east with the trough this afternoon. Sunday is the day for the real warmup, as a ridge begins building across the region. This will bring warmer air in aloft and keep skies mostly clear, so highs on Sunday are likely to range from the upper 70s F to lower 80s F.
Drier weather and seasonable temperature are expected in the wake of a cold front late Monday and through the remainder of the workweek. Shower chances will increase again overnight into Monday as the mentioned trough and associated occluded frontal system approach from the west. The front is progged to be east of the ridges by the evening.
developing ahead of a deepening upper level trough axis as it begins to dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley. with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Another area of low pressure continues to develop across southern lower Michigan with a cut-off low trailing just behind. This cut-off low continues to deepen as it moves eastward and catches up with it's surface reflection still over southern lower Michigan Monday morning.
50" of rain since this morning, and a few other locations in the high desert got around 0. As the low continues to drift west and south on Sunday, high level cloud cover should gradually clear out. Despite the decrease in PW, better daytime heating and increasing instability will create a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains and high desert, with lesser chances in the low deserts and along the Elsinore Convergence Zone in the Inland Empire. The low weakens further as it moves back east and across So Cal on Monday. All areas will have a chance of more sprinkles/light showers as the low moves across.
A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the gulf, northeast across the area Tonight, with an upper trough to the west.
(Today through Monday) Early morning regional radar imagery depicts our well-advertised cold front racing south over North Texas, and approaching the I-20 corridor. Water Vapor imagery shows a deepening trough over southern Minnesota, which will pick up the cut-off low that's been lingering over Louisiana the past several days, essentially opening the door for this early season cold front. Locations over the Hill Country may dip into the lower to middle 60s Monday morning, but afternoon temperatures will remain seasonal, if not warmer than normal, in the upper 80s to lower and middle 90s.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with a cold front currently pushing through West Texas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing and moving across portions of the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico in response to the cold front. The cold front will continue pushing through the area today with high temperatures generally ranging from the 70s across Southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and most of the mountainous terrain to the 90s along the Rio Grande. Upper ridging will build over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Monday.
By late tonight, a cold front will be making initial intrusion into the northwest Delta and will slowly move south heading into early Monday morning. /86/ Tomorrow through Sunday: The period starts off tomorrow with a large closed low centered over Northern Illinois/Indiana and associated trough axis extending through the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing through the area and is progged to be located near the I-20 corridor by daybreak tomorrow morning.
204 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build over the region into Monday. As the ridge axis shifts further into the Rockies, temperatures will warm back into the lower to mid 80s today, and upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Monday. High pressure will keep the sky sunny, with the exception of a layer of smoke aloft. TWH SREF showed falling heights in the upper ridge over the area Monday night.
(Today through Monday) Our eyes are back to the northwest waiting for the much anticipated cold front to move through our area today. More showers and storms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Afternoon mlCAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg, but shear will be on the low side with effective bulk shear around 15-20 kts this afternoon. Showers will shut off from west to east after 00z tonight with cooler and drier air filtering into the area from the northwest.
1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low will drop into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday with high amplitude ridging setting up along the spine of the Rockies resulting in northwesterly flow across West Texas. The cold front that moved through this morning is in the process of washing out across WFO Midland's northern row of counties though a slow southward drift is still indicated. Lows tonight should drop into the 50s areawide with the exception of our southeastern counties which will likely make it only into the lower 60s. Much cooler on Sunday with 70s likely though a few locations may struggle to make it out of the 60s given the cloud cover.
The upper trough which was responsible for Saturdayâs rain will continue to push to the east on Monday, allowing upper level ridging to build in from the west.
105 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Lowest temperature as of 1:00am is 39F at Langdon, with most other sites in the low 40s. Air mass is pretty dry and several spots in western ND dropped below freezing this morning. Warming quickly tomorrow as upper ridging builds into the Northern Plains and the trough cuts off as an upper low well to our southeast.
Northerly winds ahead of the ridge could occasionally gust into the 15-20 mph range during peak mixing this afternoon, mainly along/east of Highway 81. Light/variable winds and clear skies tonight should again allow temperatures to drop into the lower-mid 40s, coldest in valley areas east of I-29. Monday will see south-southeast flow develop west of I-29 as the ridge continues to drift east, but still rather light, 10-15 mph. This should allow some warmer temps to begin building into the region, with highs Monday ranging from lower 70s east to lower 80s west. Upper ridge which has been prominent over the western CONUS in recent days will begin to build east of the Rockies by Monday night.
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Tonight Through Monday) An upper low pressure system is located along the Mississippi River on the latest weather map with a strong upper ridge over the western U. A strengthening upper low over the upper Midwest will move into the Great Lakes area Sunday and continue to the eastern Great Lakes Monday. The upper ridge will remain over the Rockies. These will continue this afternoon and evening in association with the upper low over the Mississippi River. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur with the cold front moving into the area. High pressure will move into the state behind the front. Temperatures will be especially cooler in the north on Sunday.
The region will be influenced by upper level ridging with a departing upper level low to the southeast and storm track well north. Monday will be slightly warmer compared to Sunday as the region will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front was continuing to push eastward through the region overnight. We'll get a brief taste of Fall-like weather today with high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 70s and overnight lows dropping to around 50 degrees. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon will subside this evening as high pressure moves in.
Key Messages: - Rain band slowly sags southeast tonight with fog potential for some - Wrap-around showers continue into Sunday and Monday, mostly impacting northeast IA and southwest WI - Dry midweek but shower/storm chances return late week Latest 18z surface analysis shows cold front extending from northeast Wisconsin into southeast Iowa. as an upper level trough digs over the Upper Midwest tonight/Sunday. Upper level trough closes off over the Upper Midwest Region Sunday. Lingering rain chances will depend on the position of this upper low as it wobbles somewhere around the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Ridging will then steadily build into the area through midweek, bringing a return to warmer, more seasonable temperatures with highs back near 80.
As a low pressure spins over southern Lake MI tonight through Monday, we could see a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two over the south central and east as an axis of deformation forms north of the low. Lows tonight look to only bottom out to the low to mid 50s where cloud cover exists tonight, whereas the cloud-free areas could get into the mid 40s.
Looking at a warming trend this week as upper level ridge across the western US shifts east.
As noted in the previous AFD, latest WPC QPF guidance continues to highlight the I-96 corridor with the highest rainfall amounts, with HREF 24 hour Probability Matched Mean signaling localized swaths of up to 3 inches suggesting much of the heavier rain will be convective.
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Weak upper trough will remain over the north-central Gulf of Mexico during the period while an upper ridge holds over the Texas Big Bend. A weak pre-frontal trough will move through the area by early Sunday morning.