Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest flow aloft will continue across the area today as an upper low spins off the PacNW coast.
148 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A cold front will approach the area this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms.
Improved skies will clear overnight with upper level ridging and northwest flow aloft the main player for the next couple of days. Overnight lows mild once again in the low to mid 70s with a stronger warmup Monday afternoon into the triple digits.
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper level ridging has shifted slightly east from the Southern Plains to more across the southeast CONUS the past 24 hrs.
A weak upper low evident on water vapor imagery is centered just west of Abilene and will provide weak ascent primarily across our northwest counties through the rest of the afternoon. As this upper low lifts northward tonight, it will be replaced by a westward expanding ridge which will keep things warm, although it will be a little drier Monday afternoon. Strengthening southerly flow will allow deeper mixing to occur and dewpoints should fall into the low/mid 50s by afternoon. Strengthening ridging should keep a lid on any convective chances Monday afternoon.
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds.
(This evening through Monday) A weak upper level low is located across northern Mexico and the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. On Monday, an upper level ridge centered across east Texas will strengthen, resulting in dry and hot conditions.
A trough of low pressure along the west coast will keep cooler conditions (more typical for mid-late September) through the rest of the holiday weekend, with highs generally near 70 for Sierra valleys and 80-85 for lower elevations. Colder Sierra valleys could see a light freeze or frost Monday morning as temperatures dip into the lower-mid 30s.
335 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic on Monday. As high pressure center pass off to the east, low level flow will become southerly. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today.
629 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (This evening through Monday) Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across north TX early this afternoon and will continue to spread northward across the Red River through early this evening on the northeast periphery of an upper low moving over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Overnight dewpoints in the low 70s to mid 60s, and some residual cloud cover, will again keep lows well above average for Independence Day morning. However, it will also be a couple of degrees warmer.
603 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure continues, with mostly clear skies expected for most of the sites. Mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will shift to the northwest during the period with the center of the high over east Texas Monday and Monday night.
/Issued 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022/ Georgia continues to remain in a warm, moist, tropical airmass underneath broad high pressure ridging from the Atlantic Coastal Southeast to the Central Great Plains. Within this ridge pattern, weak flow will prevail across these areas from the surface through the upper-levels of the troposphere. Additionally, ever-so-slightly warmer temperatures between 700-500hPa combined with a bit of extra subsidence looks to keep thunderstorm updrafts weaker on Monday, which in turn, will lessen outflows and help dampen cascading development throughout the day. Aloft, jet has pulled well north of the CWA, leaving subtropical ridge across the southeast.
Weak high pressure will continue across the area, and E/SE flow will remain with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each day, then becoming light overnight. Numerous showers and storms possible each afternoon and evening through the week with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Weak high pressure in place will keep light SE flow with afternoon sea breezes taking over and turning winds onshore near the coast.
755 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper level ridging and abundant atmospheric moisture will lead to typical summerlike weather through much of the week with afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day. Rainfall chances increase late this week and into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. There is a cold front east-west across south central North Carolina. Showers and thunderstorms developed in the higher terrain of western Carolina near the boundary and propagated into the lower terrain. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Cooler today and for the 4th with highs in the upper 70s to around 90. High pressure builds over the region for the remainder of the week with temperatures climbing back above normal in the mid 90s by the end of the week. Southwest flow aloft continues as the upper-level low and trough continue to slowly work onshore with lower heights over the Great Basin. A few light showers or sprinkles can't be ruled out along the northern border, especially over NW Humboldt county in proximity to the upper low with a little better moisture and lift present. Cooler temps with highs in the upper 70s to around 90 and nighttime lows in the mid 40s to 50s (low to mid 60s near Wendover).
626 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Current WV imagery shows ridging beginning to build back into the region pushing the monsoonal plume of moisture to the north this afternoon.
/Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022/ 18z WV satellite shows an upper ridge extending from W OK extending westward over the Panhandles to NM and an upper wave moving northward over W TX. Progged soundings suggest warm temperatures aloft at around 400mb associated with the upper ridge should keep convection in check. Lee side trough will develop, leading to southwesterly winds and robust warming into the upper 90s.
930 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A cold front has pushed south of the region late this evening. High pressure will build across the region later tonight through Independence Day.
Low pressure across eastern Washington is ushering plenty of moisture from its southwest flow. The low pressure over eastern Washington will persist over eastern Washington through the 4th of July.
732 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic on Monday. Overnight lows in the the mid 60s, with areas east of Columbus in the lower 60s. As high pressure center pass off to the east, low level flow will become southerly. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today.
755 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front having pushed to near the Tennessee border clearing out the earlier showers and storm potential while also bringing in some drier air on light northerly winds. Temperatures vary from the mid 70s in some of the already shaded valleys to the low 80s, elsewhere. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from near 60 degrees north of I-64 to the low 70s still closer to the Tennessee border. High pressure will build in north of the front as well as a dome of high pressure remaining across the Central Plains.
This low should drift farther southeast into Mississippi overnight while the center of an upper ridge moves north-northeast into Western Louisiana. Otherwise, some minor edits were made to the hourly temperatures and dewpoint grids to better follow observed trends, but the low temperature forecast was left intact. CN (This evening through Monday Night) Humid conditions will continue across the Four State Region through the next 36 hours as surface ridging to our east maintains moist southerly flow. While the atmosphere will not be as moist elsewhere as it has been to produce flooding rainfall, Gulf moisture will remain in place across the area, producing dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and minimum temperatures will fall into the low-to-mid 70s as a result.
715 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Warm, dry weather is expected to continue into tomorrow under high pressure.
Upper level ridging and abundant atmospheric moisture will lead to typical summerlike weather through much of the week with afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day. Rainfall chances increase late this week and into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. There is a cold front east-west across south central North Carolina. Showers and thunderstorms developed in the higher terrain of western Carolina near the boundary and propogated into the lower terrain. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
930 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds.
656 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds.
851 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 An area of high pressure remains anchored over Florida and the southeastern United States is influencing the local weather. On the Fourth of July, dry air and ridging should limit shower development, however a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, compared to previous days, with temperatures ranging roughly 5 degrees below normal.
555 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Warm, dry weather is expected to continue into tomorrow under high pressure.
For tomorrow, SHRA/TSRA coverage should be mostly confined to the higher terrain so will not include any prevailing or TEMPO for thunder. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 74 93 75 / 10 40 30 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 92 74 92 74 / 10 30 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 74 92 74 / 10 30 20 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 90 69 89 70 / 10 30 20 50 40.
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Humid conditions will continue across the Four State Region through the next 36 hours as surface ridging to our east maintains moist southerly flow. While the atmosphere will not be as moist elsewhere as it has been to produce flooding rainfall, Gulf moisture will remain in place across the area, producing dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and minimum temperatures will fall into the low-to-mid 70s as a result.
An entrenched troughing pattern will continue to provide unseasonably cool inland daytime temperatures, more persistent cloud cover and light precipitation. Heights will trend up by midweek as a strengthening Four Corners area ridge ushers the weakening trough north. An unseasonal strong mid to upper level trough remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is spreading mid to upper level clouds across the region, while lingering deep marine layer is gradually scattering as the low level inversion weaken. Interior daytime temperatures have been 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
An upper level low will gradually track inland and through the area tonight and tomorrow. Another upper level low will build offshore mid week, keeping Western Washington in an unsettled weather pattern.
603 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (This evening through Monday) A weak upper level low is located across northern Mexico and the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. On Monday, an upper level ridge centered across east Texas will strengthen, resulting in dry and hot conditions.
Southwest flow aloft will help in development of lee side troughing. The trough line will extend down the western border with NM. Storms are expected to form over the mountains as well as the trough axis and westerly flow will push them into the western Panhandles. Tuesday will see the trough axis start shifting eastward into the Panhandles.
500 mb high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will maintain rain-free conditions with above-normal temperatures for the BRO CWFA for the period.
Temperatures Tuesday will be warmer with highs 100-104.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 93 75 93 / 40 30 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 50 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 40 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 69 89 70 89 / 30 20 50 40 60.
1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 (This evening through Monday) Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across north TX early this afternoon and will continue to spread northward across the Red River through early this evening on the northeast periphery of an upper low moving over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Overnight dewpoints in the low 70s to mid 60s, and some residual cloud cover, will again keep lows well above average for Independence Day morning. However, it will also be a couple of degrees warmer.
425 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic today. Broad mid level ridge situated over the Gulf States and extends into the Lower MS Valley. This places a west-northwest flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of this ridge. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal with highs around 90 and into the lower 90s. West-northwest mid level flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Valley. Hot conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s.
1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Humid conditions will continue across the Four State Region through the next 36 hours as surface ridging to our east maintains moist southerly flow. While the atmosphere will not be as moist elsewhere as it has been to produce flooding rainfall, Gulf moisture will remain in place across the area, producing dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and minimum temperatures will fall into the low-to-mid 70s as a result.
A broad upper level ridge will build over the southeast states through Tuesday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will continue from the western Atlantic into the southeast. Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to near 80 along the coast.
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 (This evening through Monday) A weak upper level low is located across northern Mexico and the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. On Monday, an upper level ridge centered across east Texas will strengthen, resulting in dry and hot conditions.
By combining the hi-res models, the higher rain amounts have been muted in the forecast.
The mid level ridge centered across East Texas will continue building into South Texas today and into tomorrow promoting hot and dry conditions. With above normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday, highs today and tomorrow are expected to range between the lower to mid 90s near the coast the near 106 degrees across the Brush Country.
434 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Currently - Atlantic high pressure centered well east of the southeast US coast extends a ridge westward across Florida and through the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is responsible for gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Ridging also extends east/west across Florida with a broad swath of drier air long our longitude. Forecast - Through the week, the previously mentioned Atlantic ridge will remain control.
A closed upper level low pressure circulation is spinning over western Washington this morning. As it does, it will bring a cold front and Pacific moisture to the Northern Rockies, making for wet weather on this Independence Day holiday. Northwest Montana will be favored for the highest rainfall amounts, where 0. As the Washington low pressure system moves east, another closed low takes its place off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The result will be southwest flow aloft as the Northern Rockies straddles the low pressure system to our west and a building ridge to our east.
(Today) A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate much of the weather across the Deep South and Southeast. The last several days, the observed highs have been a few degrees warmer than guidance. Afternoon temperatures rise into mid to upper 90s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, expect heat indices to rise to into the 100-105 degree range.
Today is likely to be just slightly cooler, but with more humidity compared to Tuesday. Storms were ongoing across much of the area early this morning as of 3 am, with the highest coverage north of Interstate 80. Large scale pattern showed the center of a 500 mb ridge down over LA but this extends up into KS and MO too. Air temperatures should peak mostly in the 90s today, with lows tonight in the lower and mid 70s.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected diminish overnight We will be under the influence of upper level ridging as we head into the holiday which will continue the southerly/southwesterly low- level flow that has been driving our daily showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonal in the low 90s but the added humidity will have heat indices above 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s. Upper level ridging will build across the region during the short term with the center of the ridge north of the CWA. While the ridge builds in across the CWA, the tri-state area will still see showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.
An upper level analysis shows a broad trough moving across the northeast CONUS, another one coming into the PAC NW and a ridge encompassing pretty much everywhere else. The center of that ridge has been gradually shifting east and is now quite close to the CWA. There seems to be quite a bit of moisture still caught inside the ridge as models indicating PW's in the low 2" range.
Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s for most, with heat index values of 100-107.
There remains some uncertainty in how quickly the moisture in the pbl mixes out with many of the models supporting afternoon dewpoints falling into the lower 60s which would result in lower heat indices. The mid/upper ridge will dominate the weather patten through the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting a continuation of hot and dry weather conditions. Main concern will be marginal LLWS across central Kansas where the low level jet will reside during the overnight hours.
Muggy night in store with lows in the low 70s and near 100% humidity.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand further westward into our area today.
Some breezy winds over the higher terrain will linger overnight with southwesterly winds increasing shortly after sunrise, especially for western Arizona.
The highest potential will likely be over our northern tier counties.
130 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds. Dry weather continues overnight with weak height rises aloft as a broad upper level ridge moves slowly east from the Plains. There looks to be a good chance that dry weather will continue through Monday evening as high pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic region. Severe risk will depend greatly on amount of recover during Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
An upper-level ridge will strengthen across the middle of the country this week allowing for temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s.
/Issued 603 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022/ High pressure continues, with mostly clear skies expected for most of the sites. Mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will shift to the northwest during the period with the center of the high over east Texas Monday and Monday night.
An upper low will gradually track through the area tonight and Monday with showers tapering on Monday. Another upper low will be offshore mid-week for slight shower chances, with the upper an upper trough moving through late in the week. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather for the weekend.
1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Current WV imagery shows ridging beginning to build back into the region pushing the monsoonal plume of moisture to the north this afternoon.
For today a thermal axis will build into northern Kansas while a weak wave over southwest Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle this morning shears out as it moves through the top of the upper high today. Tonight the lows will remain warm with readings in the mid to upper 70s. By tuesday evening a mid level disturbance is forecast to move along the periphery of the upper high bringing a small chance of convection to central and northeast Kansas.
Improved skies will clear overnight with upper level ridging and northwest flow aloft the main player for the next couple of days. Overnight lows mild once again in the low to mid 70s with a stronger warmup Monday afternoon into the triple digits. With leeside troughing aiding in the downslope warming affect, southwest winds will drive these temperatures up gusting up to 30-35 mph Monday afternoon being more mild overnight into Tuesday morning down to the mid to upper 70s.
Fair weather and low humidity will continue for the Forth of July, as high pressure passes off of the coast and low level flow shifts to the south. Model 850/800mb temps support highs in the low to mid 80s. Fair and seasonable conditions appear likely Monday night with increasing clouds ahead of a warm front in the midwest. Ridge axis stays west through the extended, with the CWA in a weak NW flow much of the time. VFR with light winds will continue into Monday as high pressure remains in control.
High pressure will provide a sunny and dry Independence Day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, with freezing levels around 14-15kft, some of large hail may melt before it reaches the ground. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period under high pressure.
TFJ The upper low is expected to remain just off the Pacific Northwest through most of the week.
642 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the mid Atlantic today. Broad mid level ridge situated over the Gulf States and extends into the Lower MS Valley. This places a west-northwest flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of this ridge. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal with highs around 90 and into the lower 90s. West-northwest mid level flow across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Valley. Hot conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s.
632 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Upper level ridging remains anchored across the southeast CONUS. West to southwest flow aloft will continue across our area today on the northwest periphery of the ridge. A warm front will lift north into the north central NE by this afternoon. A bit drier air (lower dew points) do mix north out of KS as the warm front lifts into the area. Low-level dew points will pool on the cool side of the warm front, with near 70 dew points and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to very unstable conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Upper level ridging is still forecast to build northwestward from the southeast CONUS by weeks end.
551 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The upper low is expected to remain just off the Pacific Northwest through most of the week.
456 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Upper level ridging remains anchored across the southeast CONUS. West to southwest flow aloft will continue across our area today on the northwest periphery of the ridge. A warm front will lift north into the north central NE by this afternoon. A bit drier air (lower dew points) do mix north out of KS as the warm front lifts into the area. Low-level dew points will pool on the cool side of the warm front, with near 70 dew points and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to very unstable conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Upper level ridging is still forecast to build northwestward from the southeast CONUS by weeks end.