Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (Through Tuesday) With southwesterly flow aloft, the weak cold front bisecting the area from N-S will only slowly slide eastward overnight with marginally drier and cooler air filtering in from the west.
612 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Skies fared more sunny than expected even with the base of an upper trough traversing Far West Texas. As this trough axis drifts east across the region tonight, what few cirrus remain will be swept east through daybreak. The rest of tomorrow looks stellar thanks to subsidence on the rear of the trough with highs not too dissimilar from today.
924 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm tonight associated with a cold front. Drier air moves in Tuesday through the rest of the week with warmer than average temperatures continuing into the weekend. Wedge in place across the Upstate with main cold front pushing into central GA.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will develop and move over the southeast through the short term. Drier and cooler mid and upper level air will advect over the state while the low levels remain with enough moisture to allow for mostly cloudy skies today and fog development overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s.
921 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Rain chances will persist through Tuesday before dry conditions resume with building high pressure. Coverage will continue to increase tonight and Tuesday with deeper moisture and a crossing upper trough. In general, rainfall will be light with forecast QPF less than a quarter inch outside of the WV ridges where total amounts could be slightly higher by the time showers come to an end later on Tuesday. A passing upper trough will remain to the south crossing the Mid Appalachian Range with limited moisture available.
To the south, brief window exists for limited lower cloudiness across the Detroit airspace, as modest mixing commences within the warm sector environment associated with passing low pressure system. The upper low now rotating along the IL/IN border region will track across NW Ohio/SE Mi this evening. Ongoing low level moisture advection along/north of a weak warm front extending across metro Detroit has been sustaining light showers/drizzle over much of the area this afternoon. A compact region of mid level subsidence will overspread Se Mi overnight into Tues morning in the wake of the departing upper low.
620 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will develop and move over the southeast through the short term. Drier and cooler mid and upper level air will advect over the state while the low levels remain with enough moisture to allow for mostly cloudy skies today and fog development overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s.
535 PM MDT Mon Oct 31 2022 20z surface analysis had low over north central MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop depicted low amplitude upper ridge over the northern Plains with mountain-induced cirrus spilling across the northern Rockies into the CWA. Jet streak currently south of AK and associated upper low west of BC will be the main weather maker this week.
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Upper trough swinging by to our north is bringing through enough moisture to keep us mostly cloudy today, with even a few light showers showing up on the 88D this afternoon.
Currently - A complicated ridge extending from the southeastern United States to off the mid Atlantic coast is somewhat bifurcated by a trough aligned over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. This ridge, along with lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea, are responsible for light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A ridge across the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic and lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters.
747 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 slow moving area of weak low pressure and frontal system will cross the district through Tuesday, accompanied by mostly clouds skies, high relative humidity and scattered light showers.
Except for a few flat cumulus around the mtn ridges, skies were clear. Mid level ridge axis will move over the region early tomorrow morning, with the flow at mid levels becoming southwesterly in advance of an impressive trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
557 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Rain chances will persist through Tuesday before dry conditions resume with building high pressure. The upper low will continue to press through the area with showers becoming more isolated to scattered as models continue to advertise a pronounced H5 dry slot over the area this afternoon into the evening. Coverage will increase tonight and Tuesday with deeper moisture and a crossing upper trough. In general, rainfall will be light with forecast QPF less than a quarter inch outside of the WV ridges where total amounts could be slightly higher by the time showers come to an end later on Tuesday. A passing upper trough will remain to the south crossing the Mid Appalachian Range with limited moisture available.
1011 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 A low pressure system will exit to the east tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into the region on Tuesday, eventually settling over the area for Tuesday night. A few sprinkles may occur until the passage of the trough. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 50s. A cooler night will be in store for Tuesday night with winds going nearly calm and skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy. This should allow lows to dip into the lower to upper 40s across our CWA.
918 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Weak low pressure will approach today then cross the region Tuesday.
541 PM MDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Upper level ridging over the area will bring pleasant weather for trick-or-treating with light winds and temperatures 45-55F. The upper level ridge over Colorado will shift east of the area Tuesday. This will lead to winds increasing over the higher terrain and eastern plains. Expect a Denver Cyclone to form Tuesday afternoon. North winds across the northern Front Range may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas with highs in the upper 60s. Elsewhere across northeast Colorado, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s.
802 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Low pressure exits the region Monday night but will keep some scattered showers in the forecast until Tuesday.
610 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Weak low pressure will approach today then cross the region Tuesday.
920 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Rain chances will persist through Tuesday before dry conditions resume with building high pressure. Coverage will continue to increase tonight and Tuesday with deeper moisture and a crossing upper trough. In general, rainfall will be light with forecast QPF less than a quarter inch outside of the WV ridges where total amounts could be slightly higher by the time showers come to an end later on Tuesday. A passing upper trough will remain to the south crossing the Mid Appalachian Range with limited moisture available.
812 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (Tonight) The Tennessee Valley sits to the west of a cold front that is along the East Coast and south of an upper low that is spinning across the Midwest.
808 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Low pressure over the region is producing clouds and showers. High pressure will gradually build across the region for the remainder of the week bringing dry and mild conditions. Conditions should actually start to improve early in the morning as guidance is on board with conditions quickly improving near the Blue Ridge and then east.
No major changes to the forecast as temps will be slightly warmer tomorrow with drier conditions. (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Upper trough swinging by to our north is bringing through enough moisture to keep us mostly cloudy today, with even a few light showers showing up on the 88D this afternoon.
406 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 A weak low pressure will cross the area today with some light scattered showers.
Temperatures at 3 AM CDT were primarily in the 50s outside of locations downwind of warmer waters. Tomorrow will be warmer than today due to less expected cloud cover.
1211 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Skies fared more sunny than expected even with the base of an upper trough traversing Far West Texas. As this trough axis drifts east across the region tonight, what few cirrus remain will be swept east through daybreak. The rest of tomorrow looks stellar thanks to subsidence on the rear of the trough with highs not too dissimilar from today.
(Today through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough tracking NE over northern OH, but enough moisture was left behind to allow for extensive mid-level clouds across much of the area. Thereafter, a beautiful day will be ahead for the area as weak ridging overhead leads to warming temperatures and dry conditions.
245 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 06Z surface data has high pressure from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.
Lee troughing across eastern Colorado intensifies today bringing breezy southerly winds to western Kansas.
332 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 The temperature forecast today and Wednesday leans on the warmer guidance blend for highs in the 70s. The very dry air moving in should support the cooler lows in place across wrn Nebraska. This forecast is warmer by day than the 50th percentile of the NBM and cooler by night. An upper level low along the coast of British Columbia will drop south through the wrn U.
- Warmer Than Normal Into This Weekend - High pressure will move into the area today resulting in dry weather with deep southwest flow. Dry conditions are expected with warmer than normal temperatures.
A cold front will pass south of the region this morning with a northerly flow behind the front.
159 AM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Deep/digging western CONUS upper trough will support mild and increasingly windy weather the next two days, along with a much colder end to the work week with chances for snow Thur. The upper trough will split with the northern stream portion quickly progressing through the Northern Plains.
209 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Satellite imagery shows some mid-level clouds moving across Upper MI early this morning as a low pressure continues traveling east over Hudson Bay. Expect temps to drop into the low 30s before sunrise across the interior areas, with a few spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s as skies clear out.
Potent long wave upper level trough develops over the west coast later tonight into Tuesday, with upper level ridging over the Northern Plains into central Canada. Southwesterly flow aloft develops over the Dakotas during the day Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts eastward, with developing low pressure off to our west. A mild airmass will remain in place for Wednesday, as models have again slowed down the arrival of a cold front set to move through the region. A split flow pattern will develop Wed-Wed night as the upper trough digs into the southwest CONUS and a northern stream low forms over south central Canada.
Southerly winds will bring in warmer air, and could produce near record high temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
Dry for the period with above normal temperatures Discussion: Short wave ridging will build across the area today, then a weak upper low will approach tonight. Tonight will see an increase in high clouds as the upper low approaches but it will remain dry with above normal temperatures.
1222 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Rain chances will persist through Tuesday before dry conditions resume with building high pressure. Coverage will continue to increase tonight and Tuesday with deeper moisture and a crossing upper trough. In general, rainfall will be light with forecast QPF less than a quarter inch outside of the WV ridges where total amounts could be slightly higher by the time showers come to an end later on Tuesday. A passing upper trough will remain to the south crossing the Mid Appalachian Range with limited moisture available.
With no cold air pivoting into the area behind this system, temperatures will climb well into the 60s to near 70 as upper ridging begins to expand into the area.
(Today and tonight) Broad upper troughing will pull away east of the region today leaving subsidence and short wave ridging in its wake which will in turn provide mostly clear skies. A deepening upper level trough in the western CONUS today and tonight will begin to draw low level moisture northward. The deep upper troughing in the western US will create surface lee troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper trough moving over the area this morning with high pressure briefly building in this afternoon. Will have a large trough moving ashore the West Coast today and progressing east Wednesday with heights beginning to fall ahead of it. Temperatures should be near normal again today in the low to mid 70s warming a few degrees into the mid 70s to around 80 Wednesday. Lows tonight in the 40s for the cooler locations and 50s elsewhere.
A weak cold front continues to slowly approach from the GUlf and move southeastward. Warm, dry conditions expected through the week as a high pressure system remains the driving force. As we near the weekend a fairly strong ridge will begin to set up aloft, supporting the continuance of warmer temperatures and little chance for precipitation. Expect temperature to be above normal through the week, with most areas hovering around 90 for the high.
1138 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Weak low pressure will approach today then cross the region Tuesday.
208 AM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 SW flow aloft will be over the region today as upper trough moves inland from the Pacific. A cold front moves through the forecast area late tonight and during the day on Wednesday.
A filling upper low will cross the region today and result in isolated/spotty showers.
108 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 A low pressure system will exit to the east tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into the region on Tuesday, eventually settling over the area for Tuesday night. A few sprinkles may occur until the passage of the trough. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 50s. A cooler night will be in store for Tuesday night with winds going nearly calm and skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy. This should allow lows to dip into the lower to upper 40s across our CWA.
High pressure builds in through the end of the week, then drifts offshore over the weekend. Drier conditions are expected tonight as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Dry conditions continue into the middle of the week as high pressure remains across the region. As the high builds offshore over the weekend, return flow will set up over the area with an increase in humidity. A cold front attempts to impact the cwa on Mon, but opposing sly flow and the building upr ridge could keep it relegated to areas north of the cwa. Timing uncertainties with the lowering ceilings and visibilities overnight, and then with the ending of the showers and improving conditions Tuesday.
High pressure builds in through the end of the week, then drifts offshore over the weekend. Drier conditions are expected tonight as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Dry conditions continue into the middle of the week as high pressure remains across the region. As the high builds offshore over the weekend, return flow will set up over the area with an increase in humidity. A cold front attempts to impact the cwa on Mon, but opposing sly flow and the building upr ridge could keep it relegated to areas north of the cwa.
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic, with a front stalled across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Storm Lisa tracking westward across the western Caribbean Sea. Aloft, a mid level ridge centered over the Bahamas continues to provide a stable environment over the Keys. For today, with no discernible low level forcing, dominant ridging aloft, relatively weak easterly flow and only shallow low level moisture available, we expect only isolated showers at most.
343 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will begin to build into the region today, eventually settling over the area tonight. Low level clouds and few pockets of mist and sprinkles may accompany the lowered cloud bases prior to sunrise. Any fog may could be fairly slow to mix out on Wednesday morning with high pressure overhead but eventually should lift by mid day. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
However just north of the Alabama state border, a stream of lower level clouds moving eastward across Tennessee (and the lower atmosphere not as moist) for the most part has inhibited most fog formation so far at most spots, except for Giles County with dense fog at Pulaski. Temperatures have cooled into the low/mid 50s with light winds. Fog will be slow to dissipate after sunrise, thanks to high pressure over the region (with light winds resulting in slower atmosphere mixing). Highs later today should be on the warm side for the start of November, rising into the low/mid 70s.
1243 AM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 20z surface analysis had low over north central MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop depicted low amplitude upper ridge over the northern Plains with mountain-induced cirrus spilling across the northern Rockies into the CWA. Jet streak currently south of AK and associated upper low west of BC will be the main weather maker this week. Tonight through Wednesday afternoon, upper trough will deepen as it slides into the northwest CONUS Tuesday night and then splits Wednesday as it moves into the Rockies. Aforementioned MT low will strengthen pushing lee trough into the CWA with 2-3mb/3hr pressure falls ahead of it.
Tuesday the upper trough that was the upper low will have opened up and move into the mid Atlantic by afternoon. Temperatures with the cloud cover will be about the same north but a few degrees warmer south.
The upper low now rotating along the IL/IN border region will track across NW Ohio/SE Mi this evening. Ongoing low level moisture advection along/north of a weak warm front extending across metro Detroit has been sustaining light showers/drizzle over much of the area this afternoon. A compact region of mid level subsidence will overspread Se Mi overnight into Tues morning in the wake of the departing upper low.
453 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Satellite imagery shows some mid-level clouds moving across Upper MI early this morning as a low pressure continues traveling east over Hudson Bay. Expect temps to drop into the low 30s before sunrise across the interior areas, with a few spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s as skies clear out. However, a pattern shift will be emerging from mid-week onward as ridging/high pressure moves E in the CONUS and troughing/low pressure deepens in the W, extending down from Canada.
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Satellite imagery shows some mid-level clouds moving across Upper MI early this morning as a low pressure continues traveling east over Hudson Bay. Expect temps to drop into the low 30s before sunrise across the interior areas, with a few spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s as skies clear out. However, a pattern shift will be emerging from mid-week onward as ridging/high pressure moves E in the CONUS and troughing/low pressure deepens in the W, extending down from Canada.
439 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the region today.
4 inch range as the trough moves more to our north.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure over the Eastern United States will break down as a weak trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into the Eastern United States. This will allow for a weak cold front over Northern Florida to move southward into Central Florida.
While this happens, high pressure at the surface will remain in place over the region. A good bit of ascent will accompany this trough, but with the drier air in the low levels of the atmosphere, rain looks to be tough to come by. Temperature-wise, with some high clouds hanging around through the night and some patchy fog possible across the area early Tuesday morning, lows will fall into the low and middle 50s.
Looking at relevant parameters, warm advection today should result in highs universally into the low 70s, and without any advection of 'higher' dewpoints. We do have a gradient developing through the day, up to 10mb across the state by the afternoon, and while warm advection off the surface will play a somewhat inhibiting effect on mixing winds, BUFKIT mixing tool, along with peak wind guidance in both the NBM and HRRR point to peak winds in the low to mid 20kts range across north central South Dakota with slightly lower values across central South Dakota. Temperatures should be cooler as a result as well, being near to eventually below average. Beginning Wednesday evening, a large western CONUS upper-trough will be advancing east towards the Northern Plains, leading to southwest flow aloft.
735 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure over the Eastern United States will break down as a weak trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into the Eastern United States. This will allow for a weak cold front over Northern Florida to move southward into Central Florida.
948 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will begin to build into the region today, eventually settling over the area tonight. Any fog may could be fairly slow to mix out on Wednesday morning with high pressure overhead but eventually should lift by mid day. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
Otherwise, a weak cold front across north central FL will continue to slowly push southward throughout the day and this combined with diurnal heating and the sea breeze may allow a few showers to develop later today and push westward across the area. A weak cold front continues to slowly approach from the GUlf and move southeastward. Warm, dry conditions expected through the week as a high pressure system remains the driving force. As we near the weekend a fairly strong ridge will begin to set up aloft, supporting the continuance of warmer temperatures and little chance for precipitation. Expect temperature to be above normal through the week, with most areas hovering around 90 for the high.
Some good news: the latest satellite trends indicate that this fog and the low clouds are dissipating. Temperatures will warm about 5-7 degrees higher than yesterday, peaking in the low to mid 70s in most locations.
High pressure will follow and build east of the Appalachians through early Wednesday. The afternoon will then be mostly sunny and unseasonably mild, with high temperatures in the 70s, as high pressure builds east of the Appalachians. At the surface, 1028-1032 mb high pressure will build from the OH Valley to the nrn Mid Atlantic, while ridging south across the Southeast.
624 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will begin to build into the region today, eventually settling over the area tonight. Low level clouds and few pockets of mist and sprinkles may accompany the lowered cloud bases prior to sunrise. Any fog may could be fairly slow to mix out on Wednesday morning with high pressure overhead but eventually should lift by mid day. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
630 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper trough moving over the area this morning with high pressure briefly building in this afternoon. Will have a large trough moving ashore the West Coast today and progressing east Wednesday with heights beginning to fall ahead of it. Temperatures should be near normal again today in the low to mid 70s warming a few degrees into the mid 70s to around 80 Wednesday. Lows tonight in the 40s for the cooler locations and 50s elsewhere.