Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weakening cold front will gradually move sewd across srn WI today while its strong area of low pressure weakens across Ontario Canada. The breezy sly winds and strong warm advection has resulted in 60F temps early this morning, thus high temps in the lower 70s should be attainable. Models are showing some differences with the timing of the main upper trough that will end precip chances.
118 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A backdoor cold front will dissipate in the forecast area today as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. The ridge will dominate through Wednesday.
101 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A backdoor cold front will dissipate in the forecast area today as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. The ridge will dominate through Wednesday.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today but weak low level downslope gradients will keeps highs around 60 degrees. Wednesday will be dry as amplified ridging noses into western Montana.
The upper level ridge of high pressure that has been in place over the region will weaken across the state as the axis shifts to the east, which will put Arkansas on the western edge of the ridge. Maximum daytime temperatures have been in record to near record territory the past few days, and the weakening ridge should bring afternoon temps down a bit. With the increased moisture levels and a weakened ridge, along with an approaching front across southern Missouri, there could be a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwestern half of the forecast area on Wednesday, although it should be fairly isolated in nature.
638 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley today, then pass through the region on Wednesday.
The showers were associated with an upper trough, with an upper low being the primary focus for the activity which was located in northern California. The low center will remain to our south as it moves across Nevada today, although the showers associated with the weaker northern portion of the trough will persist this morning. The showers will taper off this afternoon and end this evening as the trough moves to our east. An upper ridge will fold into the region tonight through Wednesday for dry conditions and decreasing clouds. Mostly clear skies will accompany the ridge on Wednesday. High temperatures will be near normal today and 4-8 degrees warmer on Wednesday.
500 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge continuing to shift eastward in response to an incoming trough, and is now centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
Persistent onshore flow will continue ushering this higher moisture further into the region through the period. A stronger upper low will dig into Arizona and northern Mexico by Wednesday.
The weakening cold front associated with this system should move into NE UT late this afternoon and drag through NW CO overnight. Wednesday should see the beginning of a dry period with the deformation zone NE of the southern AZ closed low hanging over the central and SW CO mountains.
courtesy of southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. especially given the already very warm 07z/2am readings in the lower to middle 60s.
335 AM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A low pressure system is expected to bring a slight chance of showers, primarily from Merced County to Yosemite for today.
Cooler air has filtered across the plains, which will result in a cooler day today. Guidance is showing cooler lows tonight with a bit more cold advection but we will still be cloudy, so I just lowered what we had a couple of degrees, still above freezing on the plains.
Many areas, particularly west of the glacial ridge will be nearing average highs for the date (low 50s) by 12z. Upper trough will sweep through Wednesday night, likely leading to an uptick in shower coverage before sweeping the front east.
In similar fashion, as an evolving/developing frontal system makes its approach from the northwest Wednesday, and High pressure aloft and at the surface still holds strong over much of the South, we'll see one more day of record warmth Wednesday.
A narrow area of isentropic lift just northeast of a warm front located over the Bluegrass has causes a couple of small showers to form over southern Ohio. A few of the higher resolution models are picking up on this development, and they show additional development in the next couple of hours in my far northeast counties. When that warm front lifts farther away from the region, that rain chance will come to an end, by mid morning. Ridge building into the region as evidenced by the latest water vapor satellite imagery showing an anticyclonic curved arc centered over central Indiana. At the surface, high pressure over the northeast U. The combination of warmer thicknesses and those southwesterly winds will make it an unusually warm first of November. Then Wednesday, heights aloft start to fall as that ridge heads east.
Conditions drop into IFR around 08Z as the low-levels continue to cool and moisten.
The UA ridge that has been dominate across the Four-State region the last few days is what has been responsible for the abnormally warm/near record breaking temps. The center of the said ridge will be shifting east towards the southeastern CONUS today courtesy of a Pacific UA disturbance moving across southern OR/northern CA, hence promoting southwest flow aloft. So although the ridge will not be directly overhead, its influence will still be felt with 850 mb temps of 15- 17 degrees C yielding the possibility for near record breaking warmth once again today. Concurrently, a weak UA disturbance across south central TX early this morning is progged to lift northeast along the western periphery of the ridge, nearing the area this aftn and wane whilst moving across the western zones this evening/tonight.
Low pressure will move across the area today keeping temperatures down a bit while generating some clouds along with a slight chance of showers in Lincoln County.
High pressure will build in from the north. Ridge building over the region bringing much drier air into the area will limit the potential for rain tonight into Tuesday.
Some low stratus and fog could also return to near Dodge City and east with good low level moisture near a stalled out cold front. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 60s, with warmer mid 70s near Medicine Lodge.
614 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure centered over New England will move off the coast this afternoon. allowing a warm front to lift north across the area. A low pressure system will move across the Lower Lakes Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Water vapor imagery shows a weakening 500mb low over Central Texas with mid level ridging over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Due to the elevated sea heights (which most is east-southeast swell), have decided to extend the coastal flood statement to cover the higher tide cycle this evening.
Believe the drier air coming and the decreasing winds/clouds, temperatures should drop a little cooler than what the current forecast has. At the start of the extended models are showing an upper level ridge over the High Plains with a Desert SW cutoff low located just southwest of the Four Corners.
A cold front over IA is expected to sag into southern IA before stalling this evening.
Radar showing quite a bit of shower activity continuing across interior NorCal early this morning as the upper trough passes overhead. Snow is continuing at the higher elevations of the northern Sierra and Cascade Range, and Caltrans traffic cameras are showing accumulating snow occurring over Donner Pass on I-80. Showers are expected to taper off rather quickly across the region by mid-morning as the trough shifts east and ridging from the eastern Pacific builds rapidly in its wake. The building ridge is expected to keep the region dry with cool nights and milder days through the end of the week. Another system moves over the ridge Wednesday night bringing some clouds, but any precipitation is expected to remain over far NW California and areas north of the Oregon border.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge over the southeast U. The southwest flow will be increased over Arkansas Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper low moves into the southwest U. Another warm day is expected today as Arkansas will be under the influence of high pressure. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit cooler due to clouds increasing over the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
344 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Pacific coast low coming ashore NRN CA continues to show indications of separating from the main jetstream to our north thus developing a closed low across the desert southwest. The result will be a better chance that a cold front across SWRN KS may end up making it to the southern Panhandle by mid-morning before a rapid retreat ensues thanks to the deepening low out west. At least a cold front will finally arrive tomorrow to cool things down.
Models are showing some differences with the timing of the main upper trough that will end precip chances.
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through mid week, then a cold front and upper trough will bring cooler but seasonable readings to end the work week. The cold front will bring rain to central Indiana mid week. Believe the high clouds could slow temperatures a bit, but readings should still get to near record values with 850mb temperatures reaching around 15 degrees C.
453 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Changes to Forecasts -- We extended isolated shower coverage in the lower Straits of Florida through this morning.
The GFS starts the period in quasi- zonal flow in the mid-levels, eventually transitioning to northwest flow, with the ridge directly on top of us by the weekend.
142 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will shift to the east coast overnight. A warm front will lift north across the region on Tuesday.
A warm front will lift to the north across the region tonight shifting winds back to southerly. With warmer air surging back in overnight, temperatures will not fall too much. For Tuesday the upper level ridge will continue to build over the area.
A cold front will slid southeast into the area this evening, effectively making trick-or-treating very comfortable as wind speeds drop near the front and temperatures remain warm. The tricky part come later as cooler air works in, but still remains light.
326 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front pushes through the area this morning, with warm afternoons today and Wednesday.
The 500mb ridge that has been responsible for our warmer than normal and dry weather will drift slightly east on Wednesday, but will remain close enough to continue to bring warm temperatures. An increase in cloud cover should keep us a degree or two cooler that afternoon than on Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday night, the ridge is expected to break down and the southern end of a cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley will head southeast toward the Tennessee River Valley.
Overall confidence is low; however, included TEMPOs at KSPS and KLAW where confidence is the highest. However, ridging develops over the Plains late in the week after a longwave trough moves from the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region.
322 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through tonight, followed by the passage of a warm front early Wednesday.
627 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will crest over the region this morning before sliding offshore. A warm front will lift into the region from the southwest tonight and be quickly followed by a cold front on Wednesday. The cold front will then stall over southern New England Wednesday night.
232 AM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across western South Dakota. Northern wave of splitting upper trof slides across the area tonight. Temperatures marginally cold enough for rain/snow mix in the higher elevations of the Black Hills overnight.
137 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure over the northeast will keep dry conditions in central New York and northeast Pennsylvania through Tuesday night.
This should help to keep temperatures 2-3 degrees cooler than today for Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, but the remainder of the area will likely be just as hot as today.
The high pressure ridge centered across southern Georgia/north Florida will be absorbed/reinforced by a larger high to its north, as a mid level high center builds eastward from the eastern GOMEX over the top of Florida.
Upper trough currently over the the west coast will shift east into the desert southwest on Wednesday with scattered showers/thunderstorms possible as upper jet streak shifts into the plains. Better thunderstorm chances expected Wednesday evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves into the area in response to upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region.
311 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will move across the area today with another day of mild temperatures and a light westerly breeze. We will see a positively tilted trof pass through Wednesday with the right entrance region of an 80kt jet supporting some mid level lift.
Today will be similar to the past several days with a ridge of high pressure the dominant feature. With slightly more easterly surface flow than yesterday, high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler, but still well above average, mainly in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s across the western half of the area and lower 80s along the coast.
Isolated to scattered light rain showers will be possible Wednesday morning in our far southeast, ahead of an advancing trough swinging east through the northern Plains. Highs will be slightly cooler than today, but still pleasant in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Broad weak amplitude upper trough extends across the Pac NW into the northern Plains. Will also downgrade the High Wind Warning for Butte and Perkins counties to an advisory based on latest obs. Upper trough axis will move into the Great Basin region Tuesday with southwest flow across the region. Mean eastern Pacific trough will support a mean ridge over the western-to-central CONUS through the entire week.
513 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will lift across the region tonight, followed by a cold front on Wednesday.
Believe the drier air coming and the decreasing winds/clouds, temperatures should drop a little cooler than what the current forecast has. Much cooler, more seasonable autumn air mass expected starting Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week. , as upper high strengthens near Salt Lake City and closed low forms near Yuma, Arizona.
The mid- and upper-level troughing appear to shift NE by Wednesday but given higher instability over a greater area, another round of diurnal instability driven convection will likely occur Wednesday afternoon for much of the region other than the immediate Rio Grande area.
106 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 WSW flow aloft and 996mb low pressure over the Dakotas is resulting in broad strong warm air advection from the northern plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Winds should remain decoupled just enough from the low-level wind max to lead to LLWS into the early morning hrs. Per satellite imagery and obs, pronounced drying will spread into Upper Michigan overnight into the morning behind trof passage. Strong low pressure moving from the northern Plains to north of Lake Superior tonight will result in gales to 40 knots over the east half of Lake Superior tonight. Once the low moves northeast of Lk Superior, west gales to 35 kts are expected Tue over Lake Superior, especially for the west half.
Flight weather should remain vfr again today and tonight with more beautiful ridging expected across the Eastern U.
It's warm front was moving into the southwest corner of the forecast area. The cold front was into western Minnesota. This precipitation is caused by a low pressure area centered along the nd/mn border late this afternoon. The low will move northeast into southern Canada by early Tuesday morning. High pressure will build into the forecast area Tuesday morning causing breaks in the clouds from south to north during the day. Moisture will be limited ahead of the approaching trough. A few rain showers may develop over northeast Minnesota and along the high terrain of the Minnesota Arrowhead.
A strong upper ridge will continue across the southeast states through tonight. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure at the sfc will extend down the east coast into the southeast states.
340 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure centered over New England will move off the coast this afternoon. allowing a warm front to lift north across the area. A low pressure system will move across the Lower Lakes Wednesday night.
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Wednesday morning across central Indiana. Meanwhile, a warm front on the back side of the aforementioned high pressure will result in summer like temperatures through mid-week. The pattern will change on Wednesday though as a cold front brings chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some cooler air behind it. Temperatures will remain above normal even behind the cold front, but they will be considerably cooler than the 70s and 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Cooler, but still warmer than average temperatures are expected today in the wake of the cold front that moved through the region late yesterday. The pattern amplifies as a result of the trough currently over northern California and western Nevada deepening over the desert southwest and forming a closed low over far southwest Arizona on Wednesday. As this low drops into the extreme southwest U.
546 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will lift across the region tonight, followed by a cold front on Wednesday.
254 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Surface wind shift has made it down across I70 at this early hour, with cooler temps in the 50s and 60s behind the boundary. This keeps highs about 5 degrees cooler in our northern counties. Southwest flow in the low to mid levels persists Wednesday into Wednesday evening for southern and eastern locations keeping thermal ridge over the area. Forcing for ascent is somewhat limited with modest isentropic upglide along the thermal ridge then eventual frontal passage in the afternoon and evening.
CRP 00z sounding showing the low levels moistening up but FWD sounding was very dry and LCH was dry as well. Weak ridging noses into the area Wednesday and rain chances look a little slimmer and more showery.
/issued 818 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016/ Stagnant pattern persists with a strong U/L ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Big pattern change late in the week as strong U/L ridging will develop over western North America with rex type block briefly taking shape. The strong ridging will induce sharp downstream troughing over the eastern U.
A low pressure system will bring some showers and thunderstorms today.
Winds are shifting to the west and northwest behind the low pressure trough this afternoon. Cooler, but still unseasonably warm weather, is expected behind the low. Low pressure well to our south, across KS, will attempt to slide a trough over south central SD overnight. However, it will get quickly pushed south again as another ridge of high pressure winds out from the west.
Ridge building into the region as evidenced by the latest water vapor satellite imagery showing an anticyclonic curved arc centered over central Indiana. At the surface, high pressure over the northeast U. The combination of warmer thicknesses and those southwesterly winds will make it an unusually warm first of November. Then Wednesday, heights aloft start to fall as that ridge heads east.
305 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through tonight, followed by the passage of a warm front early Wednesday.
Upper ridge is still in control of the TN valley and stlt shows that mid/high level moisture will continue to move across the TN valley overnight. Earlier forecasts were showing that temps could be a deg or two cooler than today but it doesn't look like that will be the case. This will keep lows slightly warmer, in the upper 50s to near 60. This combined with slightly cooler 850 temps from the east, will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s.
For today, a weak cold front will slowly settle southward into nrn zones this morning before lifting nwd again later this afternoon. This boundary, combined with periods of high level clouds, will result in slightly cooler max temperatures this afternoon. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, an upper level low pressure system will dig into srn Arizona and become quasi-stationary. The combination of a swd moving cold front and adequate moisture return supports slgt chc to chc pops across much of the fcst area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This will be possible as high pressure, southwest flow and drier air take hold of the area today. These clouds are expected to gradually move out throughout the day as the drier and warmer air filters into Kentucky. And with the aid of southwest flow, temperatures are expected to make it into the lower 80s area wide (with the warmest temperatures in the south). The drier airmass will continue into Wednesday with a ridge valley temperature split (and some valley fog) likely overnight.
High pressure will bring drier weather the rest of the week with inversions and some early morning freezing fog potential in Sierra valleys as well as the Basin and Range. An upper low over extreme northeast CA will move into north and northeast NV this morning. After low pressure moves off to the east this afternoon, high pressure will build over northeast CA and western NV for the balance of the short term. Inversions will set up and limit mixing and ventilation with some freezing fog for Sierra valleys as well as in the Basin and Range near Fallon and Lovelock. The Reno airport and urban areas of the Truckee Meadows are finally expected to slip below freezing tonight (the lowest so far this fall at the airport has been 34F).
Somewhat cooler weather will arrive Wednesday, along with an increasing chance for rain as a cold front moves into and across the southern Plains.
The ridge of high pressure that is partly responsible for the development of dense fog, will remain overhead through the rest of the week.
Does look like there will be some wraparound clouds that will move into the area this morning and then move out this afternoon as the low pressure passes to the north and put in some higher sky cover to account for this. Winds should remain decoupled just enough from the low-level wind max to lead to LLWS into the early morning hrs. Per satellite imagery and obs, pronounced drying will spread into Upper Michigan overnight into the morning behind trof passage. Strong low pressure moving western Ontario early this morning to James Bay by this evening will result in gales to 35 knots this morning over most of Lake Superior, especially for the west half.
402 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A backdoor cold front will dissipate in the forecast area today as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. The ridge will dominate through Wednesday.
Also increased winds for the plains this evening behind the cold front. These showers were associated with a weak cold front moving towards the region. Min temps tonight will be much cooler that todays earlier min temps, with lows in the 40s most of the plains and 20s and 30s mtns. It will be cooler with much less wind over the region. Temps will cool into the lower 60s across the lower parts of El Paso county to low 70s across the southeast plains. Skies will be mainly clear across the lower elevations but a few showers cant be ruled out across the NW slopes of the central mtn region.
A trough is expected to pass through during the upcoming 24 hours, bringing scattered showers and a weak afternoon/evening thunderstorm threat. Strengthening high pressure however will start a warming trend Wed as skies go clear or nearly so. Under high pressure, wind will remain light.