Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast looks on track with quiet and seasonably cool temperatures holding overnight and into Wednesday as high pressure holds north of the state. High pressure north of Florida is keeping east to northeast flow in place tonight, with wind speeds gradually subsiding below headline criteria by late Wednesday morning. Winds will become more northerly Wednesday afternoon through late in the week as high pressure shifts into the Gulf of Mexico.
This cold front will bring an end to the windy conditions this evening. Temps will still be on the warmer side of things with overnight lows in 20s. Otherwise, snow chances quickly diminish later in the afternoon and temps are progged to be warmer with highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to the 20s.
At the surface, trough extends from southeast Nebraska through Central and Southwest KS with unseasonably warm temps north and south of the trough due to great downslope conditions. Northwest flow aloft is expected to remain over the Plains for Wed into Wed night as additional upper energy dives into the trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A more substantial piece of energy will track out of southern Saskatchewan and into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Thu morning and will bring a more northerly component to the low level flow.
20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving over eastern Kentucky keeping the skies clear and winds light.
A flat upper level ridge will be over the area on Thu, ahead of a weather system, that will affect the area on Fri. On Fri, an upper level trough will move across the area as an upper level low intensifies over Nebraska and Kansas, by Fri night. Meanwhile a stg cold front will move across as well. Overall will see a good shot of QG ascent, as the trough moves across on Fri. Across nern CO, the low level flow will be mainly northerly behind the front.
Dry weather with temperatures slightly above average will continue through the rest of the week due to a broad ridge of high pressure.
331 PM MST Tue Jan 11 2022 Weak upper trough will exit southeast CO tonight with main impact being a wind shift from the north and some minor cooling aloft for Wednesday, though affect on surface temperatures may not be all that noticeable as the western U. upper ridge shifts eastward and heights rise once more. Lows along the I-25 corridor and lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains will stay warmest with enhanced westerly drainage winds into the surface lee trough where temperatures will stay in the 30s.
718 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure will support dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday.
701 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 Aviation - Light snow possible Wednesday afternoon - A cold front sags into Lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon and the models have been consistent in showing a streak of snow moving through the area.
Areas to the northeast will be somewhat cooler dropping into the upper 20s until the clouds move in mainly after midnight.
506 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Behind the passing dry cold front, temperatures have risen to near the NBM 90th percentile. Combined with weaker mixing, this pattern should yield a slightly cooler day than today, but still much warmer than normal with a lighter northwest wind.
922 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure heads toward the coast by tonight.
Throughout this time, temperatures will remain above freezing at the surface; therefore, no impacts are expected. Cloud cover will stick around overnight, resulting in a slightly warmer night across the area. Ample sunshine is expected for the remainder of the day, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 60s.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 531 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 TEXT The pattern with an upper ridge over the west and an upper trough over the east will continue to bring a northwest flow over Arkansas through Wednesday. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s through Wednesday.
350 PM PST Tue Jan 11 2022 Updated Air Quality Issues section High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday keeping the weather dry and temperatures at or near seasonal normals.
500 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Temperatures this early afternoon were in the low 30s for the far southwestern portions of the area. Much of the region could see some light precipitation, but model guidance has the higher chances tracking from west central Minnesota into south central Wisconsin. With plenty of WAA yesterday into today in the 925 to 850 mb layer, max temperatures aloft remaining above freezing would result in freezing rain. However, max wet bulb temperatures aloft being below freezing would result in snow. Although as the system departs, loss of ice aloft would lead to the potential threat for freezing rain/drizzle. If the freezing rain/drizzle comes to fruition, it would be very brief for any given location.
56/GDG /Updated at 0344 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/ /Potential for weekend wintry weather, fair weather either side/ The primary weather system of interest is a trough located over the Pacific Ocean as of Tuesday afternoon. The trough is progged to dive southward across the Rockies later this week as a secondary, smaller feature merges.
At the surface, trough extends from southeast Nebraska through Central and Southwest KS with unseasonably warm temps north and south of the trough due to great downslope conditions. Northwest flow aloft is expected to remain over the Plains for Wed into Wed night as additional upper energy dives into the trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A more substantial piece of energy will track out of southern Saskatchewan and into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Thu morning and will bring a more northerly component to the low level flow. Surface trof across central Kansas will slide slowly southward across the area with main impact a wind shift.
Latest surface analysis shows widespread high pressure across the region with a 1037mb center over the Commonwealth. Loose pressure gradient beneath the high has kept winds relatively light today out of the SSE-SSW while temperatures have struggled to warm much above freezing as most of the WAA has occurred above a strong subsidence inversion just above the surface. Warm advection will continue to increase temps throughout the day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, roughly 15 degrees warmer than today. Overall, the mean upper-level field will be characterized by troughing in the central and eastern US while a REX block configuration consolidates in the West Coast and northeast Pacific.
In our northeast under clear skies and a near calm wind temperatures have dropped to near freezing already and this area will see the coldest morning lows Wednesday. Areas to the northeast will be somewhat cooler dropping into the upper 20s until the clouds move in mainly after midnight.
The clouds are expected to decrease on Wednesday as an upper ridge develops through the afternoon.
At the surface, trough extends from southeast Nebraska through Central and Southwest KS with unseasonably warm temps north and south of the trough due to great downslope conditions. Northwest flow aloft is expected to remain over the Plains for Wed into Wed night as additional upper energy dives into the trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A more substantial piece of energy will track out of southern Saskatchewan and into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Thu morning and will bring a more northerly component to the low level flow. Surface trof across central Kansas will slide slowly southward across the area through Wednesday morning.
343 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Another mostly clear and cool day as high pressure continues to dominate the area. Temps will be slightly warmer today with highs mainly in the 50s across north and central GA.
This resulted in the overnight low temperatures being about 3 to 5F warmer. Temperatures this early afternoon were in the low 30s for the far southwestern portions of the area. Much of the region could see some light precipitation, but model guidance has the higher chances tracking from west central Minnesota into south central Wisconsin. With plenty of WAA yesterday into today in the 925 to 850 mb layer, max temperatures aloft remaining above freezing would result in freezing rain. However, max wet bulb temperatures aloft being below freezing would result in snow. Although as the system departs, loss of ice aloft would lead to the potential threat for freezing rain/drizzle. If the freezing rain/drizzle comes to fruition, it would be very brief for any given location.
South to southwest low level flow has also picked up across portions of the area, with broader valleys and ridgetops to the north staying more mixed. The colder sites are generally on target with forecast lows, with temperatures currently in the lower 20s. 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving over eastern Kentucky keeping the skies clear and winds light.
1230 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Aviation - Light snow possible Wednesday afternoon - A cold front sags into Lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon and the models have been consistent in showing a streak of snow moving through the area.
High pressure begins to shift to the east with light SW winds and increasing mid to high level clouds late in the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 32 52 34 48 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 33 48 32 42 / 0 0 30 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 31 47 32 43 / 0 0 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 29 45 30 39 / 0 0 30 40 10.
An upper ridge will remain planted across the western CONUS, bringing persistent northwest flow across the region for the next several days.
124 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will support dry and warmer conditions for today.
337 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
1006 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 (Issued 950 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022) Relatively mild temperatures will cool in the wake of the passing weak cold front through the morning hours. This cold front will bring an end to the windy conditions this evening. Temps will still be on the warmer side of things with overnight lows in 20s. Otherwise, snow chances quickly diminish later in the afternoon and temps are progged to be warmer with highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to the 20s.
Road surface temperatures remain sub-freezing, and thus areas that do see rain may see slick spots develop as this light rain freezes. With westerly winds failing to go calm, expect temperatures to remain mild tonight with lows ranging from the low teens north central to the upper 20s southwest.
Subfreezing temperatures are already realized in many locations, and the entire area can expect lows below freezing by Wednesday morning. /Issued 400 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022/ Clear, sunny skies largely in store for the short term period as weak high pressure remains over the area.
1029 PM MST Tue Jan 11 2022 Weak upper trough will exit southeast CO tonight with main impact being a wind shift from the north and some minor cooling aloft for Wednesday, though affect on surface temperatures may not be all that noticeable as the western U. upper ridge shifts eastward and heights rise once more. Lows along the I-25 corridor and lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains will stay warmest with enhanced westerly drainage winds into the surface lee trough where temperatures will stay in the 30s.
Temperatures on Wednesday should be warm enough for precipitation to be mainly rain in the lowlands.
1245 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will keep dry conditions through Wednesday night.
238 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Summary: A stout upper ridge continues to be in place over the Rockies and northwest flow aloft has taken shape over the Central Plains.
Temps above 32F in precipitation area but surfaces below freezing. NDDOT webcams in Tappen ND west of Jamestown shows some light rain drops (ie freezing rain) and this band while narrow is moving east-southeast and at least bringing a chance for a wintry mix into far SE ND overnight. The surging warm air advection has allowed temperatures to heat up this afternoon into the low 30s, reaching above freezing in some spots. Looking ahead to tomorrow, seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 20s will be in store for us with much less wind than today.
254 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Much above average temperatures will continue across much of the area today with highs likely reaching the lower 30s, in western MN, to the low 50s, in central SD.
337 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will push offshore tonight.
Amid lingering partly to mostly cloudy skies and the prevailing light southerly winds, temperatures tonight will remain around 5-10 degrees warmer than last night with most locations bottoming out in the mid 30s. However, sheltered rural areas will likely still manage to drop to or just below freezing by daybreak. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon with gradually clearing skies.
213 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 The split flow upper level pattern will continue today with the Tennessee Valley situated between an upper level ridge across the western US and and a trough across the Northeast. Closer to home, high pressure across the Southeast has shifted northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic region.
The pattern with an upper ridge over the west and an upper trough over the east will continue to bring a northwest flow over Arkansas through Wednesday. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s through Wednesday.
1125 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022 High pressure provides dry weather through Wednesday. A high pressure system will slide eastward, allowing for southerly winds tonight into Wednesday.
Some light freezing rain remains possible along the western periphery of the snow, and across portions of the James River Valley. Road surface temperatures remain sub-freezing, and thus areas that do see rain may see slick spots develop as this light rain freezes. With westerly winds failing to go calm, expect temperatures to remain mild tonight with lows ranging from the low teens north central to the upper 20s southwest.
Surface temperatures have risen above freezing for parts of the CWA and they will continue to go up a few more degrees. east of Ludington may stay below freezing today.
328 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will support dry and warmer conditions for today.
300 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure over the eastern Carolinas early this morning will push east and offshore today.
1013 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 (Through tonight ) Clear skies and south winds have allowed for warmer temps this afternoon.
1032 PM MST Tue Jan 11 2022 The afternoon analysis shows the upper ridge rebuilding over the west coast producing northwesterly flow aloft over the northern plains.
NDDOT webcams in Tappen ND west of Jamestown shows some light rain drops (ie freezing rain) and this band while narrow is moving east-southeast and at least bringing a chance for a wintry mix into far SE ND overnight. The surging warm air advection has allowed temperatures to heat up this afternoon into the low 30s, reaching above freezing in some spots. Looking ahead to tomorrow, seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 20s will be in store for us with much less wind than today.
1031 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Behind the passing dry cold front, temperatures have risen to near the NBM 90th percentile. Combined with weaker mixing, this pattern should yield a slightly cooler day than today, but still much warmer than normal with a lighter northwest wind.
544 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Summary: A stout upper ridge continues to be in place over the Rockies and northwest flow aloft has taken shape over the Central Plains.
235 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 The ridge will amplify over the West Coast today and progress eastward over the Great Basin tonight. High clouds have filled in a good of the ridge so expect occasional cirrus through out the day. Lows tonight will be 3-8 degrees warmer than this morning due to cloud cover and the warm advection.
Temperatures at 3 am were relatively mild for mid January ranging from the low 30s to the mid 40s. Britt Focus then turns toward the weekend as the next trough digs southeast in the northwesterly flow aloft. Track of the closed low on the both the deterministic medium range models and their respective ensembles are further west tonight as opposed to 24 hours ago which has shifted the axis of snowfall further west.
General troughiness will continue through Thursday owed to the aforementioned decaying cold front. This will push a strong cold front through the island chain late Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon.
402 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Another warmer day is in store, however increased cloud coverage will be the difference in today versus yesterday. A Low pressure system will slip through the region tonight, bringing a low chance for light flurries heading into Thursday morning.
548 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Messy NW flow aloft continues through Thursday with a few upper level troughs crossing the area. With the warm layer aloft shown by the NAM/RAP and subsaturated low- levels, especially south of I-94, if any precip falls, it could be as a very light mix or freezing rain, depending on surface/road temps. A stronger trough is slated to push through tonight into early Thursday in conjunction with a 90 kt 500 mb jet streak approaching from the northern plains. Mild temps will continue through Thursday with above average highs near or above 30 for much of the area, slightly cooler over north-central WI.
High pressure will continue to move to the southeast today. Southerly winds will increase across the region on the back side of the high and will bring warmer temperatures into the region. An upper level trough will skirt the Mid-South on Thursday. In addition, winds will turn around to the northwest behind a weak surface cold front.
The mid-level disturbance will exit the region by the afternoon with high pressure building behind it aloft and at the surface. Warmer and rain-free conditions can then be expected through the remainder of the short-term period as high pressure remains in control. On Thursday, the combination of a generally west to northwesterly flow, drier conditions and mostly sunny skies will result in warmer temperatures, with highs forecast to climb into the 70s area-wide.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the region today, as an upper level ridge develops to our west. Temperatures will be chilly tonight, with light winds, mostly clear skies and lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Thursday will be an even cooler day with weak cold air advection behind the departing trough. Even so, temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Quiet conditions are expected through Thursday under high pressure.
High pressure ridging continues to be evident on nighttime satellite as we see scattered high clouds slowly rotating clockwise over NorCal. Since the high pressure ridge aloft will be at its strongest today, expect daytime highs to warm again into the 60s with more widespread low 70s across Central CA. By Thursday, the ridge weakens as an upper level trough pushes into the Pacific NW, though any precipitation from that system should stay well north of our CWA. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer, mainly in the 40s, while afternoon highs are a touch cooler, mainly in the 60s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Mid-level water vapor and 5h heights show a trof axis just to the nw of the CWFA with an embedded shrtwv trof INVOF of Sacramento Mtns. Said trof axis will have moved to very far s of the CWFA by 18Z and in its wake sunny skies are expected and a weak boundary will push even drier air in the nw CWFA.
521 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Key Messages: - Isolated freezing drizzle/snow this morning, and again tonight into early Thursday morning.
The SLV was mainly in the single digits with 10s and 20s over the remainder of the high terrain. Winds today will be relatively light, with breezy conditions across the higher elevations of the central mtns.
326 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Messy NW flow aloft continues through Thursday with a few upper level troughs crossing the area. With the warm layer aloft shown by the NAM/RAP and subsaturated low- levels, especially south of I-94, if any precip falls, it could be as a very light mix or freezing rain, depending on surface/road temps. A stronger trough is slated to push through tonight into early Thursday in conjunction with a 90 kt 500 mb jet streak approaching from the northern plains. Mild temps will continue through Thursday with above average highs near or above 30 for much of the area, slightly cooler over north-central WI.
537 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Another warmer day is in store, however increased cloud coverage will be the difference in today versus yesterday. A Low pressure system will slip through the region tonight, bringing a low chance for light flurries heading into Thursday morning.
The split flow upper level pattern will continue today with the Tennessee Valley situated between an upper level ridge across the western US and and a trough across the Northeast. Closer to home, high pressure across the Southeast has shifted northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic region.
327 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Key Messages: - Isolated freezing drizzle/snow this morning, and again tonight into early Thursday morning.
Current IR Satellite shows intervals of high clouds moving southeast across the area on the eastern side of the broad upper level ridge. This ridge axis is forecast to nudge east into the Front Range for Thursday, with 700mb temperatures increasing to 2c to 6c over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer as the upper level ridge pushes east, with highs in the 50s across the eastern plains and low to mid 40s west of Interstate 25. The only real concern will be timing the end of the High Wind Warnings for the wind prone areas. By late Thursday night, models show the next Canadian cold front and associated upper level trough digging south across the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
Much above average temperatures will continue across much of the area today with highs likely reaching the lower 30s, in western MN, to the low 50s, in central SD.
A broad upper ridge will keep warm airmass over the region through Thursday. The ridge gets flattened Thursday afternoon by an upper trough moving inland from the Pacific.
Ensembles favored a more stable large-scale flow pattern as a ridge of high pressure aloft amplifies over the Desert Southwest today and Thursday. This ridge will continue to the dry weather trend with warmer daytime temperatures as the storm track remains well north of the area.
531 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Satellite imagery shows upper ridge remains in place with well developed low off Pacific coast. Upper level high pressure with northerly air flow dominates the period. There is one trough that moves through the mean flow on Tue/Tue night that generates some limited PoP over the areas in the vicinity of the Montana border and the Wyoming border.
422 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 09z surface analysis had westerly flow over the CWA with a couple of wiggly weak troughs. Cirrus floating overhead as upper level ridge over the western CONUS shifts eastward per water vapour. Looks nice through Thursday afternoon, but then a fast moving upper trough moves through bringing impactful weather to parts of the region. Today through Thursday afternoon, mean upper level ridge will dominate as thermal ridge maximizes from central MT into western NE.
A trough of low pressure is contributing mid and high clouds to the NorthCoast ahead of the associated weak front. A break in the clouds will occur later in between the warm front and cold front but as the cold front reaches the coast clouds will increase and may be associated with some drizzle or light rain.
Warmer and sunny today with more frost patchy tonight east of I-49. Also, the southwest winds will help highs to end up above average in the lower 60s by late today.