Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Little change to the WX pattern as an H100-H70 anticyclone blanketing the SE maintains deep easterly flow acrs central FL. Even so, an inverted trof parked off the E FL coast is providing enough low lvl convergence to squeeze sct low topped shras out of the airmass. Poor boating conditions as a ridge axis centered over the Deep South maintains a moderate to fresh onshore breeze over the lcl Atlc.
Scattered freezing rain developed overnight in southern Missouri as deeper moisture begins to move north. Could see some light precip in freezing rain or freezing drizzle come of this depth of saturation despite little forcing. Will continue with a light freezing precip mention for most areas but widespread and persistent precip seems unlikely. As the upper trough and low moves east during the day on Saturday into northwest Mexico, the 850 mb winds will become more southerly and begin transporting moisture northward into southern Kansas.
Current surface map places arctic high across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota with trof across Montana and Wyoming. Low level warm advection will push highs in the lower 30s for the higher elevations of northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills. Dry weather will continue into Saturday with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
Strong cold front and a very tight temperature gradient stretches through the Appalachians into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Modest cyclonic flow and lake aggregate troughing remains over the western Great Lakes and we do have some modest lake effect ongoing.
Warm days and cool foggy nights will continue into the weekend as high pressure dominates the SE region. A weak coastal trough offshore of the local coast will bring waves of low level clouds across the area today with a low chance of a coastal shower impacting portions of St.
Dry air at the surface should delay initial start time of freezing rain or drizzle, but precipitation will start at KAMA around 13/14Z and around 14/00Z to 14/06Z at KDHT & KGUY.
Building high pressure and resultant veering and weakening of boundary layer flow should support cloud diminishment today. That system is expected to spread a wintry mix, highlighted by freezing rain, along the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will stall, then develop toward the I 70 corridor as a warm front with the advance of the disturbance. Model trends continue to focus precip on areas south of Pittsburgh, especially the I 70 corridor and ridge zones. Ice accumulation through these areas may be problematic, so a freezing rain advisory was issued for those areas.
919 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 High pressure well to the northeast will continue the east to northeast flow bringing pockets of slightly deeper moisture westward.
There may be some period where lift will be strong enough to get rain showers but drizzle or freezing drizzle would likely be the primary precipitation mode. The lower levels will eventually saturate later today as isentropic lift continues to increase. Surface cooling will be minimal tonight but would likely be enough to bring freezing rain to the aforementioned areas.
On the back side of the high, sfc temps have been nearly steady to slowly rising. The high will move over central MN by 12z, and then over WI by 21Z through 06Z Saturday. Have gone towards the higher end of guidance for this period, like the HRRR, RAP13, and local WRF which is resulting in gusts of 30-35kts.
A cold front passed through the region overnight, and was about to stall early this morning as it tried to make its way through TN.
The pattern aloft will feature southwest flow across our region ahead of a potent upper low pressure system off the coast of southern California.
512 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High temperatures will occur early today then fall in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build east toward the region later tonight. High temperatures will occur early today ranging through the 20s to lower 30s north, with upper 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move to the east. A weak area of low pressure will approach from the west and move to the north of the state Saturday night and bring some snow showers.
The NW AR TAFS should all remain above freezing so only mentioned rain or showers at the terminals. The surface freezing line runs from near Miami to just north of Tulsa to Okemah. There is some freezing rain occurring north of that line from Pawnee through Ottawa Counties. Forecast is dependent on placement of surface freezing line and QPF amounts. Within the freezing rain advisory area. light amounts of rain or freezing rain are expected today. Temperatures are also expected to remain in the low 30s. Synoptic scale lift will increase by late Friday evening/Saturday as western upper low approaches the region. This should provide the large scale support for more rain and freezing rain.
423 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE MVFR cigs prevail at KTCC and KROW behind a backdoor cold front, with short-lived IFR cigs possible this morning.
Scattered showers have been moving inland overnight along the east coast due to a weak inverted trough and surge of enhanced moisture moving through the easterlies.
947 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High temperatures will occur early today then fall in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build east toward the region later tonight. High temperatures will occur early today ranging through the 20s to lower 30s north, with upper 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move to the east. A weak area of low pressure will approach from the west and move to the north of the state Saturday night and bring some snow showers.
However, a cold front over Central Texas may move south into parts of the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor and stall today into tonight and then lift back north of Saturday. Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the west coast and west-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front stretched from a low over southeastern Oklahoma to Waco to San Angelo.
Temperatures are still either side of -10 along the Buffalo Ridge, but the variable nature of the winds is keeping wind chill values rather sporadic around the -20 range.
536 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 Current surface map places arctic high across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota with trof across Montana and Wyoming. Low level warm advection will push highs in the lower 30s for the higher elevations of northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills. Dry weather will continue into Saturday with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
The ECMWF also suggest a saturated atmosphere, but the highest QPF across northwest Iowa. This will hold temperatures a bit cooler than yesterday. Highs will be ranging in the low to mid 40s. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday. Thermal profiles will be a little cooler on Sunday, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Low pressure will bring rain Saturday night into Sunday. Update for the overnight to raise temperatures across the region as warm advection on southerly flow in bringing temperatures into the 40s in the southeast ridges, and rising through the 30s elsewhere. Advancing low level moisture ahead of approaching low pressure will bring the chance for showers across the south by afternoon.
High pressure will move off to the east as low pressure develops over the plains.
The low has already begun advecting in low-level moisture and warm air. Southerly winds south of the boundary will allow temperatures to reach the low 60s. Those along our southern border should experience some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, allowing them to reach the low 70s. Tomorrow's highs will be cooler (the 40s) but still above normal.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA today through Sunday even as the westerly flow aloft veers to the southwest Sunday. a trough of low pressure across west Texas will provide more of a south than southeast flow across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today. the pressure gradient across the lower TX coast will provide breezy conditions across the coastal sections of the CWA. Temperatures will not be as hot Sunday as today as more of a southeast flow prevails as a cold front moves into central TX Sun afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to drift in behind this system and bring dry conditions to the region. The weather pattern is in a transition from an active trough pattern to an upper ridge pattern. though it will be considerably warmer than the previous few weeks. The main effect in the short term period will be breezy to windy conditions over the high open terrain of the Columbia Basin and over the ridge tops and in Central Oregon. Patchy late night and morning fog will develop each night after tonight (due mainly from lighter winds after tonight) resulting in strengthening inversions in the lower valleys and Columbia Basin.
A cold front currently across northern Kansas will sag southward as the day progresses shifting winds from a westerly direction to more of a northerly direction. This cold front is progged to move through all of the CWA by this evening with high pressure filtering into the area. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 60s long the I-70 corridor to mid 80s along the KS/OK border. Lows tonight are anticipated to range from around freezing across west central Kansas to upper 30s across south central Kansas.
High pressure remains over the Atlantic and Northeast Gulf this morning while low pressure is moving across the Central Plains. This pattern will continue through today and into Sunday, and with just enough lift with the low pressure over the plains and the warm and moist flow, a few isolated showers will be possible away from the coast.
A period of active weather is forecast for this weekend as a low pressure system brings cooler temperatures, rain and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona.
Forcing for ascent is rather weak, though some convergence will exist ahead of the low. Cool advection will continue into Sunday in the wake of the cold front and building high pressure into central and eastern Kansas.
Drizzle may be the more dominate pcpn type tonight as an inversion intensifies and mid level lift increases as a short wave trof passes to the north of Alabama.
354 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Today and Tonight: A broad ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the CONUS today, with a deepening trough of low pressure noted over the West Coast on satellite imagery this morning. At the surface, high pressure is anchored near Bermuda, and a low pressure center was noted over the High Plains.
Low pressure and an associated frontal system will cross Indiana today and overnight, to be followed by high pressure.
This low is expected to move southeast across Sask, just north of the TransCanada Highway, later tonight/Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front trailing this low will sweep through the area Saturday. Thereafter, ridging from the Pacific NW moves in.
343 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain Saturday night into Sunday. Dampening central CONUS ridge continues to fold eastward with strong zonal flow, allowing very warm and dry airmass (reference 12Z upstream raobs, particularly KOAX with EML) to advect rapidly eastward. This will keep overnight lows generally at or above freezing. Pushed the forecast toward much colder raw guidance but widespread/persistent low stratus could keep highs even cooler, potentially struggling to get above the low 40s.
1010 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest Ontario, with warm front well east of the region and cold front extending west along the Canadian border. Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the central US, with trough off the west coast. Thermal ridge is in place over the region right now with very mild temps across the area, 40s and 50s. An upper ridge will build over the Rockies early in the week and then slowly shift east into the plains by late week.
An early morning surface analysis showed low pressure across the Oklahoma panhandle with strong southerly to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of it, 850 mb moisture transport and isentropic lift will overcome the lower Ohio Valley. It will be quite warm with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 60s despite the increased cloud cover. 00z guidance continued the trend of a faster arrival of the cold front for Sunday, and by sunrise it's expected to be right along the Ohio River. It will also usher in cooler temperatures, and expect highs in the low 60s to occur early in the morning, then fall into the 50s and upper 40s by late afternoon under brisk northwest winds.
A trough of low pressure extended from just off the coast of northern California south to off the coast of southern California. Elsewhere, a second trough of low pressure extended from Hudson bay east southeast into the Canadian Maritimes. his will hold temps down today along with a combination of cooler air as a cold front pushes through Nebraska later today. Highs today will range from the middle 40s in the north to the lower to middle 50s south of the Interstate. The cold front will push into Kansas tonight with the jet streak being forced into Iowa. Lows will be warmest in the east, as some 10 to 15 MPH winds are expected overnight while readings are expected to be cooler in the west due to lighter winds.
400 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Upper level analysis shows a broad ridge encompassing much of the country and slowly moving eastward. This high pressure will allow for temperatures to moderate back to near record high temps again today. The upper ridge will begin to suppress southward Sunday as a trough rides along the US/Canada border, reaching the Great Lakes by sunset. This trough will send a weak cold front to the northern door step of the forecast area by Sunday evening.
348 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will remain off the coast today. A cold front will stall over the area tonight and low pressure will track along the boundary. The cold front associated with the low will also pass through during this time.
Saturation in the low levels remains problematic, especially to the south and precipitation chances will remain nil from around Highway 30 on south through tonight.
/Issued 741 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017/ Low level moisture continue to increase fairly steadily this evening as south winds in advance of lee side low pressure over the central high Plains bring a flow of moisture in from the Gulf. Record breaking warmth will overspread portions of eastern Oklahoma on Saturday ahead of the next cold front. Any wildfires will have to contend with a wind shift Sat night as the cold front sweeps through the region. Noticeably cooler temps on Sunday yet high temps will likely remain just above seasonal averages.
confidence was high enough to extend the High Wind Warnings along the Rocky Mountain Front Area and add in Judith Basin. Also can not rule out some blowing snow along the Rocky Mountain Front as strong winds and below freezing temperatures may just be enough to lift the wet snow. Expect mountain obscuration due to clouds and precipitation along the Continental Divide and the higher terrain of Southwest MT as a weather disturbance moves eastward from the Pac NW to eastern MT. A cool front accompanying this low should move east-southeastward across the CWA Saturday morning. This stabilizing ridge will allow most places to be dry.
low pressure developing into far western KS will continue to approach overnight interacting with the boundary over central IL by morning. Low pressure will pass across Illinois Saturday evening triggering light rain. The 12z models are in decent agreement that the low will track roughly along I-70, advancing into Indiana by midnight. The highest rain chances continue to be focused east of I-57 during the evening, with precip tapering off after midnight in the wake of the low. The low departure will signal the arrival of colder air under advancing high pressure, creating some non-diurnal temperature swings across southeast IL on Sunday.
Still looks like a cooler blustery day to start the weekend. Water vapor imagery shows moist southwest flow over our region with fairly weak trof to our west and flat ridging shifting to our east. Upper trof to our west will move east thru the region tonight. Temps will be cooler the next couple days with highs in the 30s to near 40 tomorrow and a hard freeze Saturday night.
Northwesterly flow on the western edge of an upper level trough, along with a broad area of high pressure building across our area at the surface, will result in continued dry and seasonably cool conditions through tonight.
A weak cold front will slide into Northern Iowa then wash out. Temps will be slightly cooler but still quite mild for early February with lows in the low to mid 30's. the high level cloud cover will also remain in place. At the surface a low over Missouri will shift East along with the warm front associated with it.
A cold front will sweep across the region Saturday night into Sunday. As we advance into next work week, an upper level low pressure system will shift east across the southern conus.
A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain overnight. Placement of low level thermal ridge and general swrly boundary layer flow into this aftn downstream of sfc cyclone organizing ewd out of Kansas points to considerable bust potential in light of prior gridded temps and current mos guidance. Nrn lakes sw will continue to amplify sharply into the Gulf of Maine Sun night as sfc cyclone explodes east of Boston. Thereafter short amplitude ridging builds ahead of secondary sw digging quickly sewd through the ern lakes Wed. Implied lake effect pops could likely be dropped given scant moisture availability and limited lake aggregate thermal troughing.
1225 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Observations in the higher terrain show wind gusts of 35-40 kts, which supports the need for a mention of LLWS in the TAFs overnight.
With clouds in the area, most temperatures across the region were still above freezing. This wave will help to move the low across KS east towards us today. This low pressure and midlevel wave will control the short term forecast.
Highs Sunday will run 2-4 degrees warmer than today, with temperatures in the 70s.
A large area of high pressure will extend from the Atlantic near 30N70W westward across central Florida and into the northern Gulf through Sunday. It will be cooler along the coast with a sea breeze. Sunday will be similar to Saturday with cooler conditions again near the coast but lower 80s quite common east of I-75.
Afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a long-wave trough from western Canada into the eastern Pacific. The northern portion of this trough is expected to remain progressive across the northern Plains over the next 36 hours. As this occurs some cooler air will filter into the CWA with highs on Saturday cooler than today. Confluent flow in the 850-750 mb layer ahead of the positively- tilted upper trough will lead to a tightening of the thermal gradient over the central/northern Plains on Saturday, and some frontogenesis is indicated in this layer. Even cooler air is expected on Sunday behind this system with CAA indicated through the day, though offset to some degree by good mixing and at least partial sunshine.
Regarding temps, highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still well above normal in the mid 40s north to the upper 50s south. Temps Sunday will be in the lower to mid 40s.
A cold front will move through the region Tonight and into Sunday putting an end to the record breaking heat.
Precipitation will slowly transition over to all rain as warmer air warms the boundary layer after sunrise. For Saturday, cooler temperatures are in store with highs ranging from the 40s across the South Dakota border up to the 50s across the south. With temperatures well above freezing, all precipitation on Saturday will remain as rain.
Breezy WSW winds will near 15-20 mph at times as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the front with cloud cover expected to temper temperatures in the low/mid 70s across SE GA while the SW flow and less cloud cover over NE Florida will rise temps into the upper 70s to near 80 along the St.
This low is expected to move east into SW Manitoba by afternoon. There will be a tight surface pressure gradient between the low and high pressure centered over SW Montana. Will continue the High Wind Warning for today which covers Southern Phillips, Southern Valley, Petroleum, and Garfield Counties with the strongest winds south of highway 2. Areas south of the Missouri River will have a few rain and snow showers this morning with the cold front. Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into Eastern Montana.
1101 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 A cold front will start entering the counties along/north of the KS/NE border after midnight with winds shifting to the north and northeast under 10 mph. Further south warmer west winds around 10 mph expected which should help keep atmosphere mixed. For Saturday 850mb temperatures drop about 10F to 20F degrees (south to north) as the cold front moves south across the entire area. Upper level ridge remains in place across the western US on Saturday night into Sunday.
Will bring PoPs up into the low chance range, but with very light amounts. With the expected cloud cover, will lean toward cooler highs today and warmer lows tonight compared to MOS.
There is a weak cold front that is moving through the area this afternoon and evening. Clouds will continue to increase during the night and with cold advection and increasing moisture at the lower level, lower clouds will start to increase during the day on Saturday. There is a weak upper level wave that moves into the area during the afternoon and with the lower clouds there could be a slight chance for rain in the far northern part of the forecast area. The cold advection continues across the area and temperatures will continue to be a little cooler Sunday, but still above normal.
The current sfc map shows SD in between 2 areas of low pressure, one across KS, and the other over Alberta/Saskatchewan. This was mainly due to the radar returns hitting the freezing level. Temperatures today will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than the 40s to low 50s of yesterday. Continued to keep the warmer readings over the James River Valley and east of the Coteau, where limited snowfall remains. Snow will continue to melt, as dewpoints rise in the low to mid 30s from 17z to around 00Z today. Strong pressure rises behind these features will develop, as large high pressure shifts across the Pacific Northwest.
340 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Mid level ridging will continue to build over the Mid South today as strong low level southerly flow advects low level moisture into the region. Temperatures will remain warm tonight as well with lows only dropping into the lower to middle 60s. This will push a strong cold front across the Mid South through the day.