Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 400 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015/ FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING RAINFALL STILL OVER MUCH OF N LA AND EXTENDING WWRD ACROSS PARTS OF E TX SOUTH OF I-20. POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY ALL AFTERNOON FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER OUR FAR NORTH TO MOSTLY THE MID AND UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH. BRISK NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC MOVING INTO NRN/WRN TX.
236 PM PST MON FEB 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EXPAND INLAND BY MIDWEEK, CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE LOWER 70S OVER THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.
538 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015/ THE 21Z SURFACE OBS AND MESONET DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MAINLY LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES WERE EXPERIENCING TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME ICING CONTINUING TO BE REPORTED. PATCHY LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA WERE STILL REPORTING SOME FREEZING RAIN.
627 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
858 PM MST MON FEB 16 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WITH BREEZY WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN MOVING OUT BEFORE FREEZING CONDITIONS. ONE PROBLEM THOUGH COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FREEZING OVER OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM CST TUE MORNING. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUES MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MAINLY IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 17/06Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
1012 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
MAINLY FOR BLACK ICE AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO ALL OF THE STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. ALSO WITH LOW CLOUDS CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/TREES/POWERLINES. 07 /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015/ THE 21Z SURFACE OBS AND MESONET DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MAINLY LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES WERE EXPERIENCING TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME ICING CONTINUING TO BE REPORTED. PATCHY LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA WERE STILL REPORTING SOME FREEZING RAIN.
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER A BLANKET OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTH REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWING TO A CRAWL. VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
911 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF LABRADOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
917 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A DECREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER MY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXTENDED FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATING THE NERN US THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK RETURNS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY DECREASING BUT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS CENTERS ON A FRAGMENTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY DROPPING OVER THE AREA STARTING LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE MORE NORTHERN NAM AND GEM BRUSHING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR MAX TEMPS.
UPDATED GRIDS TO HOLD ONTO AREAS OF FOG LONGER THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG. IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED TO LOOK AT SHORT DURATION FREEZING FOG ADVISORY BUT AT THIS POINT OBS AND FOG LOOP SUGGEST RATHER PATCHY IN NATURE FOR WORST CONDITIONS. SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC RIDGING THROUGH HUDSON BAY/FAR NRN GRLTKS LESSENING INTO SRN PERIPHERAL COL FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACRS CWA.
ALL SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z WITH SLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
922 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE AREA.
718 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 350 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT-TUESDAY.
922 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BAREST OF RIDGES SITS OVER SO CAL AT THE MOMENT. A LITTLE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. A GOOD EDDY SPINS UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF EXITS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 718 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 350 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT-TUESDAY.
MODELS ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVELS AND BRING ACROSS A WEAK UPPER LOW. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
508 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS SERN COLO/SWRN KS BY 01Z THIS EVENING.
Less cloudiness by this afternoon along with strengthening northerly surface pressure gradients should result in a little warmer temperatures across most of the region today.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE LOWER KEYS. TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MB) IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MOSTLY EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WEAKENING APPRECIABLY AND SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ABATE AND TURN MOSTLY EAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
627 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS AND WARMER H925 TEMPERATURES FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT MAX HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BUT HINTS OF NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL TX HAVE THIS FORECAST FAVORING SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HWY 71 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THERE AS WELL BEFORE RIDGING GATHERS ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BRING DRIER WEATHER. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
PROGGS INDICATE THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS AS IT LOWERS 500MB HEIGHTS AND TRANSITIONS US TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW. LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT. BUT PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA.
The 8 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge near and along I-10 in north FL, and several of our normally colder inland sites had a light freeze.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
520 AM MST MON JAN 19 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHTS TROUGH WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME CLOSER TO AVERAGE BEGINNING TOMORROW.
640 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BUT HINTS OF NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL TX HAVE THIS FORECAST FAVORING SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HWY 71 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH A WEAK RIDGING REPLACING IT. LOWS WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MODELS ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVELS AND BRING ACROSS A WEAK UPPER LOW. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
951 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
320 AM MST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURG THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
555 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
931 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. ALL SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z WITH SLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOWING A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SFC WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA. FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW THU NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIX OUT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PAC NW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CAL. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE GFS, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A DECREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER MY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXTENDED FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATING THE NERN US THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST TO OVER THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
415 AM PST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY FINDS ITSELF THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE IN SD HAS BEEN FREEZING RAIN. SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MID-TO-LATE MORNING. EVENTUALLY SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN LATE THIS MORNING. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. WE INCLUDED A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AT THE AIRPORT. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ073- 074-082-091.
548 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
1045 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
/ISSUED 303 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015/ Will start the day on the east side of an upper ridge centered over the Pacific coast.
STRONG SFC RIDGING THROUGH HUDSON BAY/FAR NRN GRLTKS LESSENING INTO SRN PERIPHERAL COL FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACRS CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
403 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS SERN COLO/SWRN KS BY 01Z THIS EVENING.
PUT OUT AN SPS MENTIONING FREEZING PRECIP BUT WILL MONTIOR IN CASE AN UPGRADE TO ADVISORY IS NEEDED. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT STILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
913 AM MST MON APR 13 2015 HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
1036 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NW AR WHILE MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE H5 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
618 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND WIND STRENGTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 63 73 56 / 80 90 80 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 59 71 56 / 80 90 80 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 62 70 55 / 80 90 80 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 57 68 52 / 60 90 80 40.
LOOK FOR GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD END UP A LITTLE WARMER. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS AGAIN VERY MOIST IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE LOWER PBL. IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS STILL MAKE THIS A POOR DAY FOR BURNING.
1011 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED DRIER AND WARMER AIR IN THE 950-850MB LAYER AND IN THE 700-500MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 339 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015/ WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
MVFR/VFR MAY TO OCCUR MID TO LATE DAY AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TEXAS UPPER LOW WILL SWING BY AFTER MID DAY. A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH THROUGH THE BACK DOOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 434 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME W TX THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CHURN EWD AS EVIDENCED IN THE WV IMAGERY. SIGNIFICANT LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE TX. TRAILING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK. MULTIPLE VORTS WILL ROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP/LIFT NEWD INTO OK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.
850 AM PDT MON APR 13 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A cold front will move through the region today, clearing the Interstate 10 corridor by 06z Tuesday. /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low is currently located across far West Texas and is forecast to move east northeast across the South Plains late today and overnight. At the same time, a cold front will move into the Big Country this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and behind the aforementioned cold front mainly this afternoon and overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
1046 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INITIALLY HANG UP IN THE RIDGES OF PA/MD/WV TUESDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT. ALL EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EVENTUALLY DIG AND CLOSE OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1102 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
1042 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR OKEMAH TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.
517 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015 FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO TX. AND THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST. WITH SOME DEW POINT RECOVERY ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE UPPER LOW STAYS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AS SOME MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE SPIRALING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE REGION.
610 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHERE DEEPER AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL UNDERGO BROAD-SCALE LIFT DUE TO ENHANCED CURVATURE NORTHEAST OF 700 MB CLOSED LOW. WITH ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN S/SE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3-4 FEET.
THOSE SAME SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR HELPING ALONG THE MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL SLOWLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN/OPPEN UP AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESO HIGH BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A TROUGH LINE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO LOOK WEST TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR ANY CONVECTION INITIATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. DO NOT EXPECT TOTALS NEAR THIS HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
754 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1050 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW AIDED BY WEST TEXAS MCV. MENTIONED UPPER LOW STILL PROGD TO LIFT OUT TOMORROW AND GIVE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS NW TX IS TRENDING SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH IN THE MODEL RUNS. BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE BETTER FORCING FROM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDE. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE NEAR 130W. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THERE'S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE WESTSIDE.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS SHIELD IS THINNING AS IT SHEARS OFF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST EAST OF EL PASO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN NW MN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 70 IN THE VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.