Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Once this feature passes, there will likely be a several hour lull in precip chances before the Rockies wave and its associated cold front approach from the west late tonight. Then as high pressure builds into the region behind this front, dry weather is expected through Tue night. Once this initial wave passes, there will be a several hour lull before the next wave and its associated cold front approach from the west late tonight.
1131 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WHERE IT IS SNOWING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND TO SERN MT CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE CWA. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL ALSO CONTINUE SEWRD. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN MON NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS HOUR WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER. WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA 06-16Z. MOST OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DEPARTURE OF S/WV TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MAJORITY OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAINS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AROUND 5 OR 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH VALUES OF PWATS ACROSS THE AREA (1.
Cold front will make it thru KCNM/KHOB before the end of the forecast period. /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/ Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation. Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 CLEARING PROGRESSING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WAITING TO SEE IF NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS OR ISOLD THUNDER FORMS MID TO LATE AFTN IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA ALONG COLD FRONT. KEPT THE LOW POPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THEY WERE. BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME THUNDER NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
152 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCENTRATIONS ARE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING.
405 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
542 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
138 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
114 PM PDT SUN APR 12 2015 FAIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS.
247 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE MOVED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND INCREASING POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
246 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IT THANKS TO AN EASTWARD SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW ON ITS EASTWARD TREK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A WARM FRONT. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE.
137 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
303 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2015 UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS HOUR WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER. WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER LOWS THAN LAST NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER.
135 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
337 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 PRESENT OBS INDICATING COLD FRONT SITUATED THROUGH THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED N INTO SE OK/SW AR AS OF MIDDAY. WHICH WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MOISTURE LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS A SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ENTER SE NM/FAR W TX LATE TONIGHT.
436 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
144 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK. EXCEPT LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL DECOUPLED AND HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED. EVEN BETTER FRONTAL TIMING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY.
342 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THE WIND SHIFT WILL COME AS RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE WA/OR COAST.
300 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSY DEPICTING A TROF/COLD FRONT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY FROM ABOUT NW MN TO THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000J/KG.
ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD AN APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MIDDAY WITH RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRY-LINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
651 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
402 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
527 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015 Wave of showers and embedded storms over the Plains this morning is associated with a 35-knot low-level jet and an elevated warm front around 850 hPa. Still expect another round of thunderstorms to develop later this evening as a cold front moves in from the north.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT CONFINING STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AFTER MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
As for temps, have generally trended twd the cooler guidance as heating today was hampered across much of the CWA by convective debris. The upper low currently over nrn Mexico is progd to open and lift newd, lifting a wrmfnt thru the area on Wed. AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Other than the big wind gust behind this decaying complex of showers at KCOU a few minutes ago, think things should remain pretty tranquil untl the cold front arrives later tonight. Expect a cold front to approach St.
208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015 Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. One could be across the central PB where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr will be. Cold front is now shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be noticeably cooler. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.
206 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN WILL HELP PIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE WORK WEEK.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. WHILE CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET.
THE NRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE FRONT RANGE. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AFTER ABOUT 03Z TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND TROUGH IS A BIT STRONGER SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HIGHER.
THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TIMING THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
1109 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
Could bring some patchy ground fog near river valleys as winds lighten and the upper ridge moves through, but not anticipating a strong enough reduction in visibility to put in the public forecast at this time. The higher totals are once again over areas near the Nebraska border.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
DROPPING LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRI MORNING AND LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE NUDGED FURTHER SOUTH OVER TIME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WHERE A MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GRT LKS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THIS DOME HAVE BEEN WEAKLY ERODED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF THE ATLANTIC BIGHT. COINCIDING WITH THE MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE STILL LINKED TO THE DEPARTING NORTHEASTERN-SEABOARD CYCLONE.
DROPPING LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRI MORNING AND LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE NUDGED FURTHER SOUTH OVER TIME. WHERE A MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GRT LKS.
328 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
423 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS WORKING FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EVENING. AND HAVE SHADED A BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE. LITTLE RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 10 ABOVE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. LOOKING AT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND RIDE OVER THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLOWLY COOLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A disturbance moving over a flattened ridge may bring an increase in showers to areas north of Red Bluff late tonight and Tuesday morning. The ridge starts to amplify and push any activity north of Shasta County by the evening. A ridge will remain over the area on Wednesday to keep the area dry and warm with some patchy night and morning fog for the valley.
308 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A quick shot of downslope flow on Tuesday will bring highs into the 40s and maybe even lower 50s where ground is bare, but snow cover will keep temperatures several degrees cooler further north with highs only in the 30s. These bands would be immediately adjacent to areas that receive lesser amounts, and since we won't know where these bands will set up until it's actually happening, will just paint a broad 1" to 3" across the forecast area with the higher amounts over northwest MO and far northeast KS. Broad upper-level ridging will eventually build into much of the western and central U.
ALSO A CLOSED LOW EAST OF BAJA WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PATTERN. OTHERWISE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WITH SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE WEST. FOR TODAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CLOSED LOW WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DRY DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE THE CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A SHORT WAVE AND TRACK EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO BRING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO DAWN AT 09Z.
345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO TODAY AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING IF AND WHEN ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT WAS WEST OF ONEILL AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERIODS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.
1215 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
FLURRIES HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MOISTURE BRIEFLY THINS UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHICH HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS LEE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES DEEP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BACK WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 18Z/WED WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
334 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2015 An upper level trough in western Canada will dig southeast into the northern plains Tonight. The resulting low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tonight will cause a cold front to move across the CWA during the night. South-southwest surface winds will advect warmer air northeast across central and eastern KS. The surface cold front will move southward across the CWA during the late evening and early morning hours of Wednesday. The snow ahead of the next upper level trough digging southeastward across the northern plains will not reach the northern counties of the CWA until after 12Z. Behind this system high pressure builds southward through the plains causing a rather strong pressure gradient as the wave tracks overhead.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO TO NW MINNESOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY PROMOTE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS. ADJUSTED THE QPF/SNOW DOWNWARD AS MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS AND DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH FINALLY OVERCOMES THE MOISTURE.
May see readings level out in the western CWA or rise slightly overnight as the ridge shifts east of the area and a light south to southwest wind begins to set up. Should see readings back in the upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday as warm air advection sets up in the lower levels.
331 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE GREAT CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK AND QPF NUMBERS. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE REGION AND UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
306 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY.
908 PM PST MON FEB 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES VERY QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WIND CHILL ADVY CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FROM A STRICT CRITERIA STANDPOINT WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND -12F/-13F IN THE LAST 6HRS PER IRIS MESO-OB DATABASE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM THE APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE SRN MID ATLC COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 1-2" SHOULD BE OVER THE NW/NCENTRL MTNS. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM FCST TO PIVOT ESEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES THIS PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLN AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP EAT AWAY THIS CLOUD DECK AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STAY RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF. WITH A LACK OF A SRLY MOISTURE FEED INTO THE LOW. KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW.
JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WITH ALL RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. READINGS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
442 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WAS PRODUCING A SLOW EROSION OF THE ABOVE NOTED STRATUS DECK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 20S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
300 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
A SERIES OF STRONGER AND WARMER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS -- THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SERIES OF WARMER AND WETTER SYSTEMS ON THE WAY LATE THIS WEEK -- WILL START BRINGING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR TUES NIGHT WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN WEDNESDAY. COLD AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH WILL STAY MORE NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA AND THUS NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAYS HIGH.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN ON TOP OF THE AREA.
SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE LOWER WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.