Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
500MB RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE NW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ADVECTS SOUTHWARD TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH OUT THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY PLEASANT TODAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECS AND MAV WARMER GUIDANCE.
1251 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN RETURNING. LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE. WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU AND MID/UPPER CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMPENING LONGWAVE RIDGE BUT LATE DAY SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT UPPER 40S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC EVENTUALLY MIGRATES EAST. EASTWARD PUSH OF STRONG PACIFIC JET AND SOUTHERN DROP OF HUDSON BAY LOW WILL QUICKLY ERASE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SET UP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
1138 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER WEST TN AT THE MOMENT. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS COOL. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING IS AROUND 2000 FT. AT LEAST OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 34 56 35 / 50 30 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 31 50 34 / 70 50 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 32 52 34 / 70 40 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 29 48 31 / 30 20 10 0 NC.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AM HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S AT THE COAST.
912 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Except for a couple of stragglers beneath the low clouds in far northwest Arkansas that are sitting right at 32 degrees this hour, observation sites across the region have warmed above freezing this morning so the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire on time. Southerly winds may begin to develop in parts of eastern OK late Sunday night, but likely not soon enough to keep temps above freezing. South winds will increase Monday with much warmer temperatures and dew points remaining very low.
WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge of high pressure moving east across the Northern and Central Rockies. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is sinking southward across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Tranquil weather will prevail across the central High Plains through tonight as an upper level ridge of high pressure currently extending from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin moves east toward the High Plains. Temperatures will be warmer today in the face of weak low level warm advection and increasing thickness values over the area. This should help keep temperatures from bottoming out too low with lows in the low/mid 30s expected. On Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten out, leaving the central Plains under west northwesterly flow aloft.
MONDAY IS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
602 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
326 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW EXITING TO THE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND HEADING INTO LOUISIANA. GFS SHOWING THIS LOW OPENING UP INTO A TROF AND EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVING TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE/TROUGH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS UPGLIDE DECREASES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
323 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NRN MN/NW WI MONDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FLOW OF WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND.
329 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATE OPEN AND EXIT THE NORTHEAST. CLEARING WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. IN FACT TIMING OF THE 500MB TROUGH EXITING BY 06Z TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLEARING AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. AS CLEARING CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
306 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE TAF SITES ATTM BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ARND 09Z AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTN THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END FROM W TO E AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW MOVES E OF THE TN VALLEY.
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds. a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep trough moving through the western states.
1043 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WEST COAST TROUGH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MONDAY CAUSING FLOW TO CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH GENERATING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE WASATCH FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM DRIVES ITS COLD FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE GREEN RIVER BY MIDDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.
THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUOUS WARM ADVECTION AND A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
313 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHILE THE IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES GENERALLY WEST OF I-35. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER SYSTEM.
258 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. RIDGING SPANS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD EASILY CLIMB 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
anticyclone will allow for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest IL overnight. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light wind to the area along and south of I-70. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the influence of the high pressure.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THOUGH LEE TROFFING SHOULD HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS THROUGH CA/NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEE TROFFING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 221 (TELLER COUNTY). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE PLAINS IS THE STRENGTH OF WINDS WHILE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HERE IN MI DRY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY THRU THE DAY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
1130 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS IA THIS AFTERNOON ON AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS QUITE DRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING AND THE WARM FRONT NOW OVER DES MOINES WILL SHIFT TO ABOUT I-90 BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI INTO THE LOW 70S.
331 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Weakening upper low will continue to move northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley today.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
400 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW/TROUGH STARTING TO PULL EASTWARD FROM FAR EAST TEXAS WITH THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
413 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH.
123 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
210 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPPER-LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
Upper level ridging will be over the area for the first half of this week with no changes in the forecast thinking.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS TN. MODELS SHOW A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG/STRATUS WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY. LEAVING BEHIND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
332 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.
SOME OF THE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO LOWER AND RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 22/TD MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING TO ONLY KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE EASTERN WATERS WHERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OR LESS BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST.
Winds organize some Mon PM with tighter gradient east of lee trough, but still 10kts or less. /issued 239 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ Upper level westerly flow will gradually back from the southwest through Tuesday as a trough digs into the southwestern U.
137 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE LOOPS IN SERN TX AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE, A RATHER DISTINCT 8H WARM FRONT WAS FOCUSING CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN MS/AL/GA WITH 35-40KT FLOW RUNNING INTO IT FROM THE SOUTH.
/ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) As the upper-level cyclone over central TX moves slowly east, skies will continue to clear out. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s, but a few readings in the upper 30s wouldn't be surprising, mainly in the low-lying areas and river valleys. Warmer temperatures are anticipated on Monday, with afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
236 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
1146 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY COOLER SPOTS SUCH AS HZY. STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S IN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY.
1236 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
335 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. AS MID-UPPER HIGH CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 313 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHILE THE IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES GENERALLY WEST OF I-35. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER SYSTEM.
EXPECT RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK.
EXPECT WARMEST CONDITION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOLDING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WHICH IS WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
DPTS HAVE CONTINUED TO HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS. FORECAST FREEZING LEVELS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOUT 5000 FEET.
A MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO AND DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RADAR LOOPS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS FROM EASTERN MONTANA ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
100 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
212 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP LAYER SSW STEERING FLOW WITH PERSISTENT MEAN LAYER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S FLORIDA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WERE ADVERTISED ACROSS SE GA TODAY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TUE THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS AS WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
1249 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO A WESTERN TROUGH REGIME BY MONDAY NIGHT.
358 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON SO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 3PM. WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
324 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
A WARM FRONT IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500+J/KG BY SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. HINDERING THE WARM FRONT FROM MOVING NORTHWARD AND THEREFORE LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE LLJ AND WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER.
An upper low across eastern TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet, will fill as it lifts northeast into TN Monday afternoon. A more amplified upper level trough will move onshore across the western US on Monday. As a result of the amplified upper level trough moving into the western US, a downstream upper ridge will amplify across the central US. This will support a lee side trough and eventually a low pressure along a developing cold front.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO WESTERN STATES DURING PERIOD. POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS FIRST IN SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN GRADUAL DECREASE WITH SUNSET AS BOUNDARY BETWEEN RECENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
1014 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO DEPICT OUR CLOSED LOW OVER E TX THIS EVENING. -SHRA HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD ON THE N AND E SIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ON THE WRN MORE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE LOW. INDICATIVE OF LOW CIGS QUICKLY LIFTING/AREAS OF -RA DIMINISHING OVER THIS QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE SHRA REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR AND N OF THE 850/700MB LOW OVER THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY. AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS E BEFORE OPENING UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WHERE THE DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN AROUND THE LOW.
1120 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 550 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND INTO TENNESSEE MONDAY. EXPECT POOR CONDIITONS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ESPECIALLY UNTIL THIS LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM KANSAS TO THE BIG BEND REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MONDAY A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND A WARMER DAY MONDAY.
1231 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
335 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
230 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
1238 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE LEADING TO BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL THUS BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE FROM THIS MORNING. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS TROUGH MAY TEMPORARILY CLOSE OFF AT 500 MB OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOW THE TROUGH TO BE PROGRESSIVE.
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN LATE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.