Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
All sites should be VFR by 18Z, remaining that way until a cold front arrives 00-06Z shifting winds from the northeast and bringing a return of MVFR/IFR CIGs as well as -SHRA or possibly TS. Sunday should be much cooler with much below normal temperatures behind the front with considerable cloudiness expected.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over California and the Desert Southwest for the next several days. The extensive area of high cloudiness that was streaming across central California has moved off to the south and east as a weak impulse drops over the top of an offshore high pressure ridge. This ridge is progged to amplify and drift eastward across the western US during the next few days.
across the Missouri Bootheel to near I-40 at the Tennessee River with the highest QPF. Surface air temperatures should remain above freezing, so accumulation should not be a problem. Given the fact that we are 5 degrees or more warmer right now than we expected. Temperatures should rebound into the low to middle 50s Sunday. but cool back to near freezing across most of the area Sunday night.
800 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build out of the Great Lakes today in the wake of the departing storm system.
403 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Impressive jet from the northern plains to the lower Great Lakes included a 130 knot wind max on the 00Z KMPX upper air sounding. High pressure centered in the northern prairie provinces with a ridge extending into the midwest will continue bringing north to northeast winds to MN/WI, and low level moisture will remain scant until the high pressure ridge moves far enough east, which will not take place until Sunday. With continued cold advection today, temperatures will be cooler than normal, something we have not seen too often this winter.
Mild spring weather is on tap through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
Cold high pressure will begin building into the region tonight from the north, with some clearing toward Sunday morning. At/below freezing temperatures are expected from Little Rock northward, and a Freeze Warning has been posted.
However, linear interpolation of the clearing line associated with negative vorticity advection behind the trough axis will be pushing across the north around 9 AM MST bringing improving conditions.
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through the short term, with dry weather and above normal temperatures. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday through this morning, due to less cloud cover overnight, especially for areas along and south of the I80 corridor. A weak system will pass to the north today, and briefly flatten the ridge over Northern California. Temperatures for the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley may be a degree or 2 lower than yesterday, while areas to the south should be a few degrees warmer.
419 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Scattered light showers expected to persist through the morning north and west of inverted trough in region of enhanced waa. Rain activity expected to become more widespread, not necessarily heavier, during the afternoon as influence of incoming s/wv trough and associated surge of low level ridge/cold front.
A cold front will move across the terminals late this afternoon and evening, with FROPA at KABI around 23Z, KSJT around 02Z and far southern terminals between 05-06Z. /issued 447 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A warm front currently extends across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning and will lift a little farther north through early afternoon. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will follow behind the front but winds will gradually diminish towards daybreak Sunday.
512 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build out of the Great Lakes today in the wake of the departing storm system.
NAM and RAP model soundings cool the lower profile across north central Oklahoma that very wet snow may fall, with no impacts to roads etc. /issued 419 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ Scattered light showers expected to persist through the morning north and west of inverted trough in region of enhanced waa. Rain activity expected to become more widespread, not necessarily heavier, during the afternoon as influence of incoming s/wv trough and associated surge of low level ridge/cold front.
Under abundant sunshine through most of the day, temperatures swings of roughly 25 to 30 degrees from this mornings lows are expected, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s region-wide.
Northern stream will swing a trough through the area Sun night. Pattern will become more amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge in the western US. Upper low digs over the Central Plains after Sun.
1043 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend bringing unusually cold air for mid March.
A compact upper low spinning over the Texas Gulf Coast is evident on water vapor satellite imagery early this morning. Surface temperatures may drop into the 30s along and north of the Highway 82 corridor tonight, but think that precipitation should stay all rain for our forecast area as the system moves east tomorrow morning.
Rain should dissipate by late afternoon before a cold front pushes through overnight shifting winds to the north and increasing to 15kts. In the lower levels models indicate a tightening surface to H85 inverted trough axis leading to a convergent zone which could enhance rainfall chances across eastern counties, especially near and south of I-10. Cooler and breezy behind the front.
* Low for cigs aob 5kft Southern reaches of an expansive 1040mb high pressure system to steadily build from the Mississippi valley into the great lakes through the weekend period. Pattern to solidify the seasonably cold resident air mass, with no real moderation expected through the lowest 700 mb.
447 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 (Today and Tonight) A warm front currently extends across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning and will lift a little farther north through early afternoon. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will follow behind the front but winds will gradually diminish towards daybreak Sunday.
Another area of light snow just pushing through ERN SD/SRN MN/NW IA, however lots of dry air in the lower levels with this area thus don't expect much from it this morning. Energy to continue to weaken as it drops southeast and dry air influence off the large area of high pressure to the north to keep much of any snow expected from reaching the ground. Area of high pressure to then build further southward into Iowa tonight, with some clearing expected and dry conditions.
This will result in temperatures very near the freezing mark in parts of Carroll and Madison Counties in Arkansas by mid to late afternoon, which coincides with when the most significant precipitation will occur in that area. Surface temperatures near 32 and warm ground temperatures should preclude much in the way of accumulation, except perhaps at the highest elevations in far northwest Arkansas.
High pressure aloft will develop across the interior west for the first half of the week.
and Sunday Arctic high pressure extended from central Canada into the Plains States, Midwest and Western Great Lakes at 09z.
Some light freezing rain may mix-in with the snow north of the surface front, depending on the strength of the frontal inversion and associated melting layer aloft. By Sunday afternoon, high pressure aloft will begin building-in from the Pac NW, allowing precipitation to taper-off for most.
The lowest levels of the atmosphere are wet-bulbing out and causing the rain/sleet to change over to all snow. The edges of the radar returns are likely still this rain/sleet mix because of the warmer temperatures, but NW Tennessee is getting reports of snow accumulations in grassy surfaces.
Will be a chilly day, with afternoon highs only topping out in the lower to middle 30s. Canadian high pressure will provide cool/dry weather on Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
525 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Impressive jet from the northern plains to the lower Great Lakes included a 130 knot wind max on the 00Z KMPX upper air sounding. High pressure centered in the northern prairie provinces with a ridge extending into the midwest will continue bringing north to northeast winds to MN/WI, and low level moisture will remain scant until the high pressure ridge moves far enough east, which will not take place until Sunday. With continued cold advection today, temperatures will be cooler than normal, something we have not seen too often this winter.
400 AM PST Sat Mar 11 2017 It will be a bit cooler today as compared to yesterday afternoon for areas west of the Cascade crest, but a bit warmer east of the crest. The second feature is something of a warm front, while the cold front with this frontal system is approaching 130W near 40N. Satellite imagery is hinting that the warm front might have more rain with it than most of the models indicate, but short term models are not showing this.
/issued 419 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ Scattered light showers expected to persist through the morning north and west of inverted trough in region of enhanced waa. Rain activity expected to become more widespread, not necessarily heavier, during the afternoon as influence of incoming s/wv trough and associated surge of low level ridge/cold front.
608 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Closed low over the Northeast CONUS with slight ridging into the Western CONUS. Enhanced returns over Northern Lincoln county with areas of IP falling and freezing as it comes in contact with roads. Upslope flow with warmer air aloft being advected over colder surface. Most of the highs will be realized late. Lows in the low 20s to around 30.
High pressure aloft will develop across the interior west for the first half of the week. Going forecast in good shape under a ridge surface and aloft.
Elsewhere, dry and cold conditions will persist through Sunday night as cold continental high pressure moves in from the northwest.
Temperatures today will again be on the cool side ranging in the lower 70s across much of the Coastal Plains, to mid to upper 70s across the Brush Country. Even cooler conditions are expected Sunday behind the front.
Temperatures are chilly in the lower to middle 30s and will continue to slowly fall this morning a few more degrees. As colder air filters into the lower atmosphere later this morning, we anticipate the rain and sleet showers to become increasing more wet snow especially for the northern and eastern half of the area. Temperatures will be steady in the lower to middle 30s today. Skies will clear late tonight and temperatures will drop into the lower and middle 20s with some teens possible in colder valleys across the eastern Ozarks.
Most sites expected to see ceilings drop into the lower MVFR to IFR range late in the period. A compact upper low spinning over the Texas Gulf Coast is evident on water vapor satellite imagery early this morning. Surface temperatures may drop into the 30s along and north of the Highway 82 corridor tonight, but think that precipitation should stay all rain for our forecast area as the system moves east tomorrow morning.
The area of high pressure will dominate the weather across the region today with partly to mostly sunny skies with warmer but still below normal temperatures expected.
The next impulse will arrive Saturday night supporting another WAA FGEN precip response, which could again support the threat for some freezing rain/drizzle given arctic air anchored to the NE. Upper ridge over the western CONUS will become more amplified, and several systems will cross the forecast area in northwesterly flow aloft.
A few showers had developed well off the east coast along a prefrontal trough.
Winds 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less through Mon as high pressure across the area relaxes and shifts through tonight. The front exits late Mon or early Tue as high pressure builds into the Gulf with increasing winds.
A brief lull occurs today although temperatures will remain cold with high pressure pushing into the northern plains.
This high will sink into the Gulf as a weak cool front arrives here Fri. Recovery back to normal Wed then much warmer than normal Thu.
Greater moisture then moves farther south ahead of the next cold front to move through early Sunday. For now, maintained quieter weather but did trend with the lowering CIGs late in the TAF period. Temperatures today will again be on the cool side ranging in the lower 70s across much of the Coastal Plains, to mid to upper 70s across the Brush Country. Even cooler conditions are expected Sunday behind the front.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over California and the Desert Southwest for the next several days. /issued 331 AM PST Sat Mar 11 2017/ The extensive area of high cloudiness that was streaming across central California has moved off to the south and east as a weak impulse drops over the top of an offshore high pressure ridge. This ridge is progged to amplify and drift eastward across the western US during the next few days.
A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive today and this will prevent much of a warmup. With clearing skies tonight, temperatures will easily fall into the lower to mid 20s.
958 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend bringing unusually cold air for mid March.
622 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Closed low over the Northeast CONUS with slight ridging into the Western CONUS. Enhanced returns over Northern Lincoln county with areas of IP falling and freezing as it comes in contact with roads. Upslope flow with warmer air aloft being advected over colder surface. Most of the highs will be realized late. Lows in the low 20s to around 30.
1017 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Sunny skies, temperatures in the lower 70s with lower to mid 60s dewpoints were observed in the Florida Keys this morning, with north to northeast winds 8 to 14 mph. A weak trough drifting south into south Florida was difficult to detect on the surface, but in the 925-850 mb layer still well north of the Florida Keys within the 6 to 7 am EST radiosonde data collection time.
For now went a bit below MOS guidance in the low to mid 30s. Byrd The main focus thru this forecast period will be temps with much cooler temps, some 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal avg, than the region has seen in a while. By Wed, the ridge shud be centered over the area. Overall, have trended much cooler thru this time period. While sly flow at the sfc and swly thru the low levels, cloud cover will hinder a big warm up.
If this occurs, mixed precip will spread to our southern counties, but the lower intensity should keep the south out of any headlines, and allow us to drop the northern advisory by noon. Overall, travel should be fine today with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 40s for most locations. Again, it looks like a genrally slushy snowfall, but with late night temps expected to drop well below freezing, we could have some travel problems by daybreak Sunday, especially on elevated surfaces.
The air across east TN is dry with temperatures currently above freezing. though cooler. Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 33 52 33 / 40 80 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 30 49 30 / 30 70 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 28 52 30 / 20 60 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 25 48 23 / 10 60 20 10 NC.
However, the GFS is stronger with this impulse and pulls down some cooler air for Fri. There is good model agreement in upper ridging over the Rockies into the Plains for Sat into Sun providing well above normal temps. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side for today and become slight elevated Sunday. Should see some light precip across much of the area today with below normal temps keeping RH values on the higher side.
Freezing Temperatures Again Tonight. Temperatures seem to be a little warmer than previously forecast especially over south central KY due to clouds and slightly elevated sfc winds. Still most locations will drop below freezing with many areas reaching the 20s this morning. Issued another freeze warning for tonight into Sun morning as well as confidence is high in temps reaching the low to mid 20s across southern IN/central KY. It should be noted than many nights this week will have sub-freezing low temperatures and interested persons should take necessary precautions to protect sensitive vegetation.
12Z KTWC sounding is fairly similar to 24 hours ago but a touch more moist in the low to mid levels helping to increase the PWAT up to 0.
Behind the front expect a a cooler, but dry, first half of the work week. Once high pressure moves eastward toward midweek, onshore winds will resume and bring a warming trend.
816 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure with chilly arctic air today into Sunday.
637 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and cold airmass will remain in place across the area through the weekend.
627 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure brings cold arctic air Saturday and Sunday.
Still looking at an inch or less (mainly less)at most locations in the advisory area with potential amounts over an inch confined to the highest elevations. Sunday will see cooler temperatures but all areas that see any overnight snow should get above freezing by mid to late morning so impacts should be short lived. 20 The period begins with low pressure in the northwest Gulf and low pressure deepening along the GA/SC coast.
302 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Large high pressure (1042-1044 MB) along the southern Ontario/Quebec border.
248 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 The center of high pressure looks like it is over north GA this afternoon. The high will gradually shift to the east during the short term.
418 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Weak upper ridge to round out weekend.
102 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Upper level ridge was over the area with a weak short wave over western ND/eastern MT. Increased the high for today a bit. The main challenge for the short term will be temperatures as an upper ridge slides over the valley (ridge axis centered over MN around 18Z).
352 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Broad, weak low pressure was located over the western Dakotas this afternoon. A warm front extends from the low through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and lies roughly near a Des Moines to Keokuk, IA axis at 3 pm. The warm front was the dividing line between temps in the 60s south, to the lower 40s further to the north along the Hwy 20 corridor. Otherwise, with moisture quite limited not seeing any clouds with the warm front, with mainly some cirrus increasing well ahead of a couple upper air disturbances lifting from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains. Warm front is expected to gradually lift northward tonight into early Sunday.
With a dry air mass over the area, along with clear skies and calm winds, low temperatures tonight will again fall below freezing in many locations. With the precedent of issuing a SPS for freezing temperatures having been set yesterday after discussion with the UT Ag Dept.
225 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Upper level trough to our west quickly filling but lift out ahead of the trough is resulting in scattered to numerous areas of showers, especially across the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn County of Deep East Texas into West Central Louisiana. Introduced isolated thunderstorms in the grids across our southwest half even through we have yet to see any lightning strikes today but this will be possible as the filling trough approaches from the west tonight. Upper trough axis should be in the vicinity of East Texas by 12z Sun and nearing the Lower Miss Valley by 00z Mon.
351 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure is firmly anchored over the region and will remain in control for the remainder of the weekend promoting fair/dry weather.
331 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 As a long wave trough enters the U. The challenge for tomorrow is forecasting the dissipation of the stratus deck as the clouds will make or break the high temperature forecast. With the higher March sun angle and resulting mixing, expect the inversion to relax and give us some sunshine.
201 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure moving off to toward the East Coast will continue to allow unseasonably mild conditions to overtake the region this weekend.
838 AM PST Sat Mar 4 2017 The weather will remain active this weekend, as a cold upper level trough begins to shift into the region. This should lead to an increase in precipitation into this evening with a better chance of accumulating snow after sunset when road temperatures fall to near freezing. JW 12Z TAFS: A cold front has stalled over southeast WA and the central ID Panhandle.
1123 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Fire weather will be the primary concern today as a warm front continues to surge northward across the region and southwesterly winds increase, promoting mixing, falling dewpoints and rising temperatures.
226 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather through the weekend.
As a result, have stepped down the PoP chances overnight out west and focused the higher PoPs to the east.
High pressure will continue to drift over the eastern U. Temperatures tonight will not be as cool as last night and range from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s along the coast from around Tampa Bay southward.
Clouds increase this morning with cold frontal rains reaching the far North Bay later this morning then spreading south of the Golden Gate during the evening. Much cooler Sunday with post frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms as snow levels lower from 3000 to 2000 feet.
227 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected into tonight and Sunday as an upper level ridge builds in.
1216 PM PST Sat Mar 4 2017 The weather will remain active this weekend, as a cold upper level trough begins to shift into the region.
355 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build slowly east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Sunday.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a ridge running from New Mexico through the Central US Plains and western Ontario. This ridge fill out into a warm airmass over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. A trough extends from here into the Gulf of Alaska and is dropping south to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon through tonight: Northeast Montana begins under the warmer side of southwestern flow aloft.
1211 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today will shift to the east coast for Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area on Sunday evening.
322 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure will build across eastern Canada and the northeastern states tonight and Sunday.
1240 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will slowly build in this morning and the main upper level trough will glide toward the east. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridges moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
246 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridge moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
310 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 A 1042 mb high pressure system is centered northeast of the Ohio River Valley and bulges south through the Appalachians. Although boundary layer flux will be impressive, we feel accumulating rain chances remain 10 percent or less through Sunday night given the significant subsidence in the lower troposphere.
The Lower Valley remains rain free but the activity is finally filling in and developing as upper level disturbance is moving into Coahuila State on it's way toward South Texas this evening. Per rapid atmospheric drying behind the departing short wave and approaching 500 mb ridge during the afternoon, added more sunshine and killed off all mention of rain for land and sea after noon.