Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1020 PM PST Sat Dec 24 2022 Another round of wintry precipitation will develop on Christmas Day brining another round of light snow counties along the Canadian border and light freezing rain to the East Slopes of the Cascades and the Columbia Basin.
333 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
The south winds will also aid in keeping overnight temps a bit warmer with overnight lows dropping into the mid and upper 20s.
A high pressure center is currently moving into East Texas which will allow south flow to return to everyone by mid morning. Expect highs to climb into the low 50s west of I-35(W) and the mid 40s closer to the high center east of I-35(E). The low levels will still be dry enough to allow for a large diurnal swing, but temperatures should only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. The main impact of the front during daylight hours will be a northerly wind shift and lower dew points since the cooler air will lag behind until the overnight period.
Min temps have been adjusted just slightly warmer based on current trends, but not enough to change the thinking regarding the current Wind Chill Advisory. High pressure will start to build in Sunday and track into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will continue to build to the west Today, then to the northwest Tonight. As the high builds more to the northwest, it will begin to block off the source region for the coldest air. A few high clouds will cross the area Today into Tonight, as area is in the base of a 500mb trough. Lows Tonight may be the lowest in the stretch, as winds are expected to be lighter.
While a quick hitter/progressive system, it could pose several hours of slick travel, mainly for the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas where surface temperatures are expected to remain below freezing this evening/overnight. Otherwise, the higher terrain of central Kansas look to scour out the shallow cold air by this afternoon with highs topping 40F. It will be a bit harder further east, though many areas west of the turnpike should climb a little above freezing.
* Snow/ freezing drizzle possible Sunday night in light precipitation event. * Warmer conditions expected mid-late week. Given the lower confidence in actually reaching -15 F, will remain headline free through the overnight. Warm nose appears to be less pronounced in soundings, so snow should be favored precipitation type, but as dendritic layer dries out, could see some freezing drizzle mix in with lift remaining in the deep stratus in the near surface layer. With surface temperatures in the upper 20s, any freezing drizzle would be highly impactful. Upper wave continues to move south and east through the day on Monday, but cold air advection continues keeping temperatures below freezing.
Mid aftn readings ranged fm the 20s ovr N AR, to the lower and mid 30s elsewhere. NWly mid lvl flow wl bring a quick movg shrtwv trof thru the area on Christmas Day, but just expect some higher clouds to accompany it. Expect most areas to see low temps reached early Sun evening, then bcm steady or even rise overnight, esp in the higher elevations. By Mon/Mon ngt, a stronger upper trof wl swing thru the region.
with the best chance for any freezing precipitation expected to impact areas near and east of highway 281. * The associated cold front will drop high temperatures back down into the teens or 20s to start the work week, which is about 15 to 20 degrees below late December norms.
Wind chills this morning will range from the single digits above and below zero throughout the Central and Southern Valleys of the state, to around 10 below zero across the higher terrain of the North and West. Mainly flurries will be found across the Central Ridge and Valley region with just an additional dusting. The upper low and core of coldest air will begin to shift north and away from PA today. However, latest model guidance shows consensus for highs this afternoon only in the low-mid teens across the Northern and Western Mtns and low to mid 20s in the SE. Mins tonight will be in a fairly tight range, from the single digits North and West, to the low teens in the larger metro areas throughout the Lower Susq Valley.
High temperatures will reach the low 30s today despite us asking Santa for warmer temps (guess they were accidentally delivered elsewhere). While this is slightly warmer than the past few days, it is still ~15-20 degrees colder than our climatological normal high temperature for this time of year (which are in the upper 40s to low 50s).
Embedded in the northwest flow aloft, a trough (Alberta Clipper) will travel southeast from southern Canada to across the Northern Plains. Not much impact from this system for Colorado, except for a weak cold front associated with this system moving through mid to late afternoon.
631 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
Temperatures range from near 50 in the Upper Keys to mid 50s in the Lower Keys. While ridging dominates at the surface, it is fairly shallow. The long wave trough remains entrenched across the eastern United States above around 900 mb. Rain chances will remain at least low over the next couple of days due to the long wave trough and associated moisture and modest lift remaining in place. In addition, forecast soundings indicate the lower level dry layer will saturate.
531 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (Today through Monday) While cold weather hazards will continue early today including a few hours of freezing temperatures and low wind chill values. Low temperatures for most areas will be mainly in the 30s and above freezing, but some sub freezing marks will be possible across the Ranchlands. With the cold front well to the south and high pressure building in on top of the area, a weak coastal trough will persist over the water to the southeast.
High temperatures on Monday to range from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south. Additionally, H5 ridging builds across the Ohio Valley and ushers in a warmer air mass.
Winds will continue to occasionally gust up to 20 to 35 mph today under an elevated pressure gradient behind the departing upper low, therefore a wind chill advisory will be maintained for the ridges until 17Z with wind chills below -10.
The Bighorn basin will see enough eroding of the cold pool to finally get back near normal in the upper 20s to around 30, while the Wind River basin reaches the lower 20s. High pressure ridging builds across the region on Monday, bringing another day of moderating temperatures and minimal to no chance for precipitation.
Low pressure over northern Quebec this morning will gradually move northeast as high pressure moves into the Plains from Saskatchewan. Snow ratios should make up for the lower amount of available moisture.
Strong wind gusts could lead to blowing snow concerns today MORNING DISCUSSION: Throughout most of the CWA, the chance for freezing rain has been undercut by dry air near the surface which has prevented some of the previously expected precip from reaching the ground. The main concern today will be the winds behind the warm front which are expected to bring gusts in excess of 50 mph. Any areas that were not impacted by freezing rain will be especially vulnerable to blowing snow today. Areas that received freezing rain will have a crust over the snow which will hamper blowing snow, at least initially.
918 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
The deep longwave trough currently over the E CONUS will gradually fill and lift out of the region during the early part of the week allowing the cold, dry conditions that have settled into the peninsula this weekend to slowly warm over the next few days before a more pronounced warming over the latter half of the week.
Wind chills this morning will range from the single digits above and below zero throughout the Central and Southern Valleys of the state, to around 10 below zero across the higher terrain of the North and West. Mainly flurries will be found across the Central Ridge and Valley region with just an additional dusting. The upper low and core of coldest air will begin to shift north and away from PA today. However, latest model guidance shows consensus for highs this afternoon only in the low-mid teens across the Northern and Western Mtns and low to mid 20s in the SE. Mins tonight will be in a fairly tight, from the single digits North and West, to the low teens in the larger metro areas throughout the Lower Susq Valley.
- Warmer air remains on tap the rest of the week, with highs near or above freezing. Winds will be light as high pressure builds across the region, so despite the full sunshine, the lack of mixing will keep afternoon highs only in the single digits across Minnesota, with low teens in Wisconsin. However, as we go through the day, southwest winds will start to develop which will be the start of warmer air for the rest of the week.
Light to moderate freezing rain continues this morning in many valleys of western Montana and north central Idaho. Even valley locations that have risen above freezing this morning may still have slick conditions to deal with due to the cold ground temperatures. The one exception may be the north end of valleys (think the Flathead and Missoula valleys) which will likely be the last locations to see the arrival of warmer air. Precipitation will likely continue through this afternoon and evening, but is expected to become more showery and focused over the higher terrain.
Light winds can be expected for most of the region today except localized north winds gusting 20-30 mph in the lower Colorado River Valley from Laughlin-Bullhead City to Lake Havasu.
1121 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (Today through Monday) While cold weather hazards will continue early today including a few hours of freezing temperatures and low wind chill values. Low temperatures for most areas will be mainly in the 30s and above freezing, but some sub freezing marks will be possible across the Ranchlands. With the cold front well to the south and high pressure building in on top of the area, a weak coastal trough will persist over the water to the southeast.
The colder lows overnight, relative to the rest of the area, are expected to be in the low- lying areas of our southern and east-central counties, where light winds and better radiational cooling occur. Farther north across the Big Country, wind speeds will stay high enough to limit the temperature drop to mostly the lower 30s for overnight lows. Associated cold front will push south across our area, mainly during the morning hours. Monday afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 50s across the Big Country, to the lower 60s in the far southeastern part of our area.
(This afternoon through Monday night) High temps have moderated today in wake of a cold surface anticyclone that has moved e of the area. Clouds overnight will also favor low temps trending noticeably warmer. Meanwhile a shrtwv trof within nw flow aloft moving sewd thru the central plains tonight/early Mon AM will push a weak cold front into the PB/SE NM Mon AM.
1228 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
Temperatures have ranged from the upper 50s in the Lower Keys to mid 50s in the Middle Keys, and shockingly, the Upper Keys have struggled to leave the upper 40s! Meanwhile a moisture axis aloft remains perfectly aligned over the island chain that other a brief shot of sun, has been overcast and dreary all day. The moisture overhead is thanks to broad mid to upper level troughing that remains across the eastern two-thirds of the U.
The Wind Chill advisory that was in place for the higher terrain has been allowed to expire. Arctic airmass will slowly moderate with highs today 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overall, surface ridging and dry airmass will allow for more widespread sun and moderating temperatures. Highs will be some 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
After the clipper passes to our south overnight, high pressure will build in behind the system over the northern Central Plains.
(Tonight through Monday night) Current observations shows that temperatures are on the rise with several locations in the Lower Rio Grande Valley already reaching the low 50s, while locations in the Northern Ranchlands are in the upper 40s approaching 50. Tonight, low temperatures are expected to be in the 30s for most of the CWA, while some coastal locations may be in the low 40s. Winds are expected to change to the south as a very weak mid level trough pass through. However, parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley may have a few to scattered clouds overnight.
Forecast soundings and short-term deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate that a brief period of freezing rain will be most likely along the Kansas border, with some potential for snow to mix in across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Freezing rain accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch appear more possible than accumulating snow, although this is not a slam dunk by any means. (Monday through Sunday) The cold front associated with the aforementioned storm system will lag the precipitation, passing through the region during the daylight hours tomorrow.
A couple of areas south of the I-20 corridor cold see afternoon highs in the low 50s.
(The rest of today ) Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered to our southeast, with lee trough across the High Plains.
230 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
333 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will remain the dominant feature through mid-week then shift away from the area as low pressure approaches from the west. Afternoon composite analysis reveals a highly amplified pattern across NOAM with sharp ridging aligned along the far western CONUS and, of course, the deep troughing through the eastern CONUS with 0C or colder 850 MB temps down into northern Florida. High pressure, strong subsidence and deep layer dry air will maintain flat out clear skies across the region tonight. I've nudged forecast lows down into the low end of the guidance envelope with lows 15 to 20 inland and mid 20s along the coast. High pressure will prevail across the region through mid-week, bringing mostly quiet conditions as well as cool temperatures.
With this airmass forecasted to move out of the area by the afternoon, temperatures should begin to rise above freezing across most of the region.
(This evening through Monday) There is a low chance for some light freezing rain in north central Oklahoma late tonight. If this occurs, temperatures should be just cold enough to support freezing rain.
Winds will continue to occasionally gust up to 20 to 35 mph today under an elevated pressure gradient behind the departing upper low. Winds will subside as the low pulls off into Canada.
A weak cold front moves south over northern portions of the Southeast, but light to calm winds are expected over southern portions through the Near Term. High temperatures Monday are expected to range from the low 50s south of a New Augusta to Milton to Navarre line to upper 40s north of Highway 84.
Previous Discussion: MORNING DISCUSSION Throughout most of the CWA, the chance for freezing rain has been undercut by dry air near the surface which has prevented some of the previously expected precip from reaching the ground. The main concern today will be the winds behind the warm front which are expected to bring gusts in excess of 50 mph. Any areas that were not impacted by freezing rain will be especially vulnerable to blowing snow today. Areas that received freezing rain will have a crust over the snow which will hamper blowing snow, at least initially.
(This evening through Monday) Merry Christmas from all of us at NWS Birmingham! Christmas Day 2022 is certainly a cold one, but thankfully much warmer than where we were just 48 hours ago. Our office here at the Shelby County Airport officially rose above freezing at 11:20am CT, which broke a streak of 58 straight hours below freezing. In this case, we'll take a warmer than expected outcome by a few degrees. All locations with the exception of maybe a few valley locations in the extreme northern counties will rise above freezing this afternoon. I've maintained the previous forecast in terms of having just enough moisture in the low levels to squeeze out some flurries or sprinkles during the day on Monday as the clipper system quickly moves through.
The inversion that has been present the past 24 hours is no longer sharp, indicating that some relatively warmer air is being advected in. Given everything stated, temperatures will range from lower 50s in the Upper Keys and only rise a couple degrees in the Lower and Middle Keys. Otherwise, maintaining the low- end chance PoPs (30 percent) for today.
Today will see temperatures warm to the 40's and 50's with the slight ridging over us. Monday will be cooler with the cold air that advected in and some morning cloud cover across eastern portions of the area. Otherwise winds will lighten and shift to out of the south as the system moves farther away from the area and upper level ridging tries to build back in. If any precipitation were to occur, it would be light rain during the day and perhaps a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain/snow at night.
(Through Tonight) Persistent below freezing low temperatures have prompted another Hard Freeze Warning for all inland NE FL and SE GA areas, and the SE GA coast, lows range from 20-27 degrees tonight.
It will still drop below freezing areawide tonight, but temperatures should be warmer and only drop into the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will initially shift to the north in the mid to late morning hours across North Texas as a pre-frontal trough develops ahead of the actual cold front. The true cold front will go largely unnoticed as it enters the area Monday night, but will drop surface dewpoints a few degrees along with slightly more pronounced cold air advection. Monday night will be colder than tonight, as well as the last night of sub-freezing temperatures for the rest of the week. Lows will drop into the low 20s along the Red River with mid 20s elsewhere.
Today will see temperatures warm to the 40's and 50's with the slight ridging over us. Monday will be cooler with the cold air that advected in and some morning cloud cover across eastern portions of the area. Otherwise winds will lighten and shift to out of the south as the system moves farther away from the area and upper level ridging tries to build back in.
That feature just about always causes a deep western trough with considerable storm activity over the western CONUS. A western Trough just about always causes an eastern upper ridge. As the western upper trough slowly progresses eastward, it takes the storm track with it.
After 65 hours of below freezing temps, MSL reached 34 degrees this afternoon. Expecting a few more sites to reach 32 or higher this afternoon, beyond the issuance of this AFD, ending the long stretch of freezing conditions across the TN Valley.
Slightly warmer tonight, but still well below normal. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than last night with lows ranging from the near single digits to mid-teens. Precipitation should be in the form of snow for most places as high temps will generally be around freezing to just above.
Visibility down to 1/4 mile or less at times for a few more hours before much of the high res model guidance and upstream observations show winds diminishing gradually this evening which should lead to improvement, but holiday travel impacts may continue with significant blowing and drifting over area roadways.
Mainly flurries will be found across the Central Ridge and Valley region. The upper low and core of coldest air will begin to shift north and away from PA today and tonight. However, it will be another cold tonight with lows ranging from the single digits in the north and west so the low teens in the Lower Susq valley. Monday will feel noticeably warmer compared to the weekend, with highs ranging from the mid teens in the north to near 30 in the Lower Susq.
115 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 Clipper system is currently dropping southward through the eastern Dakotas this afternoon with upper level ridging upstream over NW US. Warm air advection is ongoing this afternoon with the surface warm front stretching from western ND through central SD. A cold front is sagging southward out of ND this afternoon, with cooler air spilling into NW SD and central SD. Warm air coupled with light freezing rain that was observed this morning has helped crust over snow pack for portions of NW SD. The upper ridge axis will flatten and spread eastward through the week with mild conditions expected. Areas without much snow cover will push into the low 50s, while most other areas will remain in the 30s and low 40s.
312 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 A large, intense low pressure system swirling north through eastern Canada slowly relaxes its icy grip on our area. A high pressure system will build across the area tonight. Winds will relax in the lower elevations, while continuing in the higher elevations, but not as strong. The relaxing winds combined with clear skies and snow cover will allow low temperatures tonight to be on the lower side of guidance. With temperatures dropping again tonight, the wind chills in the higher elevations will drop again as well. Therefore, will continue the Wind Chill Advisory in the highest elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains through Monday morning. A few isolated snow showers are possible early Monday night as a weakening clipper quickly slides south/east, with another chilly night across the area, albeit warmer than past nights.
Temperatures look like they will finally climb above freezing on Monday. As temperatures once again go below freezing, isolated snow showers should continue into evening hours before tapering off from southwest to northeast as an upper level trough passage follows behind this upper level disturbance. Lows tonight will be warmer than those last night mainly spanning mid teens. Highs on Monday should rise into low to mid 30s west of Cumberland Plateau Region with temperatures across Plateau still slightly below freezing.
This moistening of the lower boundary layer should continue overnight, and measurable precipitation is certainly possible over the next 12 hours. The dewpoint temperatures across the archipelago have increased about 5 to 10 degrees in the past 24 hrs, now hovering around 50 in the lower Keys, but still lingering around 40 degrees in the middle and upper Keys. So overnight low temps will likely be cooler in the middle and upper Keys, possibly in the mid to upper 40s, while in the lower 50s in the lower Keys. This would seem to indicate the cold air advection has been shut down, but the cooler air will linger for the next few days as the warm up will be slow.
950 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
Christmas and Monday The period of fair weather under the ridge will last through the rest of today and through Monday afternoon.
-Warming trend for the second half of the week Christmas day will be in the teens which is still noticeably warmer compared to most of this concluding week.
Roadways are already below freezing so any additional precipitation of any type will likely result in hazardous driving conditions. High temperatures are still expected to rise above freezing tomorrow, but patches of ice could take some time to melt.