Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
All eyes will be on the trailing cold front which extends to the south/southwest. The low- level environment is supportive of tornadic development due to very high low-level shear and storm-relative helicity, as well as low LCL's. The cold front should exit the CWA around 0000 UTC this evening, pushing any threat for severe weather well southeast of the CWA with winds out of the northwest behind the boundary. Cooler temperatures, along with dry weather, is forecast for the remainder of tonight and Friday.
728 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty west flow of much drier air will follow the cold front.
617 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A narrow line of showers was accompanying the cold front that was pushing east, roughly along the MS River at 6 pm. Total rainfall amounts with this batch of showers along the cold front is anticipated to be light, with most locations receiving less than a tenth. Models have a very low amount of instability pooling along the cold front, but the overall threat for thunder/lightning is very low. Winds: West to northwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening behind the cold front with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Friday Cooler and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the mid 40s northeast to near 50F southwest.
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cyclone was in the development phase across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today. It brought precipitation across the region, which was followed by northwest winds and cooler air. On Friday high pressure will build across the region. High pressure will keep the forecast area dry over the weekend.
A warm front was draped across our region at midday. These storms will continue for a couple of more hours, then a cold front will move across our region this evening. Dry and colder conditions will return late tonight and continue through the day Friday as high pressure briefly moves over the region.
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 (This evening through Friday) As of 1930Z, the cold front was located from Hughes to Jefferson Counties. Despite the NNW/NNE-ly winds behind the front, temperatures are mild and range from the low 80s over central/ southwestern OK to the low 70s across NW OK. Tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s with rain chances increasing from south to north throughout the day.
347 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cutoff trough over southern California will be picked up into the broader flow later today and tomorrow. This trough will move over Colorado tomorrow bringing good moisture and lift. Tonight, persistent upslope flow across the plains and foothills may lead to light freezing drizzle developing especially in the foothills of Boulder and Larimer Counties. The threat for freezing drizzle exits over the urban corridor and eastern plains but overall coverage will be low. Bridges and overpasses are most likely to see slick and icy conditions. Models still show a weakening upper trough to move across the forecast area Friday night.
835 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty west flow of much drier air will follow the cold front.
Mid-level H7 trough continues working eastward this afternoon with CAA picking up in intensity as evening approaches.
/issued 411 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Surface ridging will persist to the north of the forecast area through the remainder of this week into this weekend. Light to occasionally breezy easterly flow, peripheral to this ridge, will maintain a similar pattern of westward-moving scattered stratocumulus clouds. A cold front is forecast to approach/enter northern and central parts of Florida by early/mid week, in association with a low- amplitude midlevel perturbation advancing eastward from the northern Gulf.
A cutoff trough over southern California will be picked up into the broader flow later today and tomorrow. This trough will move over Colorado tomorrow bringing good moisture and lift. Tonight, persistent upslope flow across the plains and foothills may lead to light freezing drizzle developing especially in the foothills of Boulder and Larimer Counties. The threat for freezing drizzle exits over the urban corridor and eastern plains but overall coverage will be low. Bridges and overpasses are most likely to see slick and icy conditions. Models still show a weakening upper trough to move across the forecast area Friday night.
Thereafter, MVFR conditions and isolated showers will develop as a cold front moves through the area. The most exciting activity is off to our north though along the warm front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, as the low in the Great Lakes continues it push northeastward, the boundary will lose its forcing and begin to dissipate going into tomorrow afternoon. With scattered showers and cloud cover in the northern portions of the CWA, temps will be cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s. A ridge is progged to remain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with prolonged perturbed southern stream flow from the Southern Plains into the southeast states. However, locations on the cool side to the north of the boundary will be cooler with highs topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Another breezy spring afternoon is expected today behind a cold front that sneaked through our area this morning. By Friday afternoon, a trough which is currently moving onshore, will be moving into our area leading to increasing precipitation chances. Mid level cold air advection will push into the area through the day friday with temperatures at the surface well above freezing.
937 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 High pressure center is currently across the northeast GOMEX. Overnight, the surface level stationary front will transition to a cold front bringing a line of showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms into North Georgia in the early morning. In general, the greatest rain chances will be across North Georgia in closest proximity to the passing upper-level disturbances and farther from the influence of high pressure across the Gulf.
That does not mean strong to severe thunderstorms will not occur later tonight, especially after sunset as surface cold front pushes southeast across mid state region first into northwest portions of the mid state region early evening and then potential spreading southeastward as the late evening into the overnight hours progress as more favorable upper level dynamics and low level jet structure come into play. A strong cold front will sweep through Middle Tennessee tonight, with a line of storms and widespread showers expect with the fropa.
A poorly defined warm front is trying to progress north through KY late today. The main limiting factor is the degree of instability, and the fact that it is not surface based north of the warm front. It's looking like instability over east KY will be fairly weak tonight, but could become nearly surface based before the low passes by to our north and its cold front arrives late tonight. Once the cold front passes, rain will taper off from northwest to southeast late tonight, followed by decreasing clouds on Friday. Surface ridging behind the front will keep us dry through friday night. An area of low pressure aloft approaching from the southern Plains may bring widespread rainfall to eastern Kentucky over the weekend.
The latest surface analysis has a cold front draped across southern Illinois extending southwest through southeast Missouri and northern Arkansas. A warm front extends across Southeast Missouri, into Western Kentucky and into Middle and East Tennessee. A trailing cold front extends southwest into Eastern Oklahoma and into the Red River Valley of Texas. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends indicate the showers and thunderstorms that developed along and just ahead of the warm front have since moved north and east of the area. Short term models including Convective Model Allowing solutions (CAMs) indicate the aforementioned cold front will drop southeast into the Mid-South tonight.
High pressure will be across the region through Tonight. Warm and dry conditions continue as surface Atlantic high pressure extends over the Florida peninsula and a mid/upper ridge builds northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico toward the region. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front across the Tennessee river valley moves south into Georgia and Alabama on Friday. Above normal temperatures continue with lows tonight in the 50s and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
811 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Although sea breeze boundaries are once again colliding over the area, PWAT values near 1 inch and warmer/drier air above 700mb has precluded any convective activity beyond a light shower over Highlands county. Otherwise, a benign weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the evening as ridge of high pressure remains sprawled across the state. Ridge of high pressure continues across the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the week with easterly winds, shifting onshore near the coast in the afternoon as a sea breeze develops.
/issued 811 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Although sea breeze boundaries are once again colliding over the area, PWAT values near 1 inch and warmer/drier air above 700mb has precluded any convective activity beyond a light shower over Highlands county. Otherwise, a benign weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the evening as ridge of high pressure remains sprawled across the state. Ridge of high pressure continues across the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the week with easterly winds, shifting onshore near the coast in the afternoon as a sea breeze develops.
(Today and tonight) Surface front will stall across north Texas today with much cooler and somewhat drier air filtering south in the lower levels. Meanwhile, a few thousand feet aloft strengthening WAA will develop along with forcing from approaching upper trough will result in increasing rain chances across north Texas and Oklahoma through the day today. Cold front begins to retreat back north tonight as a warm front.
344 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Upper level ridging will slowly build east across the Gulf of Mexico today through the weekend.
The main upper trough and jet support is moving off to our ENE very quickly, but we still have a somewhat unstable atmosphere and high shear/helicity values. A strong cold front will sweep through Middle Tennessee tonight, with a line of storms and widespread showers expect with the fropa.
105 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Rain is expected through early morning with a crossing cold front.
A cold front had moved through the northwest half of the area, and the front will continue southeastward, bringing an end to most of the showers by daybreak. The cold front will settle just south of TN by midday allowing winds to come out of the north.
Water vapour showed spiffy-looking upper low just off the coast of far southwest CA.
327 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 The cold front is pushing through the Lake Cumberland region early this morning, where a narrow rain band is moving east. Temperatures will fall into the 40s to lower 50s this morning behind the front, but recover slightly into the low to mid 50s this afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies. Tonight, low amplitude ridging will remain in place aloft. Weak low pressure will develop eastward over the southern Plains.
We continue to watch showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the cold front, but the window of opportunity for severe wx is quickly narrowing. Severe threat should pretty much shut down after that with the main upper trough and jet support well off to our ENE. Cold front is just west of CKV and still a couple hours away from moving through BNA/MQY.
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves away from the region today into tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 40s, with lows in the middle to upper 20s tonight.
A cold front will continue moving SE overnight and stall along the AR/LA border by morning. A cold front will continue moving southeast through Arkansas tonight.
401 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Strong mid/upper ridging sprawled across the western Gulf of Mexico, with a lower tropospheric ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula.
As a result, we went ahead and issued a Freezing Fog Advisory over this area through 18z Friday. We will continue to monitor this area during the next hour or so, but we may end up issuing a freezing fog advisory before midnight as upslope flow strengthens ahead of the upper level trof.
Model consensus suggests the cold front will stall across the central portions of our CWA this afternoon with the greatest chance for rain along and north of the stalled front. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today north of the cold front but continue well above normal across our southern zones. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected areawide tonight.
459 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 The short term period begins with high pressure aloft in the Gulf of Mexico keeping the local forecast area in nearly zonal flow aloft. A cold front was located just north of the local forecast area.
A low pressure system off the southern California coast will track eastward across the Desert Southwest tomorrow, bringing widespread rain and snow to primarily central and southern Utah tonight through Friday. A broad upper low is centered just off the California coast this evening. The slow eastward track of the low has allowed some of this rain to start to creep into southwest Utah. The combination of a slow moving system, favorable dynamics, and good moisture will allow for periods of moderate to heavy precipitation, particularly in association with the deformation axis on the front end of the trough. Given the relatively warm nature of the system, snow levels will be on the high side (above 7,000 feet), but the higher elevations of the southern mountains will see some significant accumulations.
All in all a cooler day than yesterday with highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Expecting the bulk of precipitation with this system will stay well to our south overnight, and forecast soundings show a persistent layer of dry air in the low levels.
a large dome of high pressure stretching all the way from central Canada southeast through the upper Ohio River Valley will bring north winds and seasonably chilly conditions, with afternoon temperatures from 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Dry conditions on this Friday the 13th across east central Florida with the axis of the low level ridge parked over the area. Temperatures warm up to the low 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s west of I-95. Overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s in rural interior areas. High pressure ridge aloft over the Gulf of Mexico and extending across the FL peninsula will produce warm and rain- free conditions.
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Aviation - A period of showers this evening - Windy late tonight and Friday - Lengthy dry period starting Friday -- A period of showers this evening -- Narrow cold frontal rain band comes through later this evening leading to a 2-3 hour period of showers for many locations. -- Windy late tonight and Friday -- Gusty winds will accompany the cold frontal passage later this evening/overnight, with gusts of 35-40 mph from the west.
A strong Pacific low pressure system is forecast to slowly track south along the California coast.
149 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty west flow of much drier air will follow the cold front.
1059 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 (This evening through Friday) As of 1930Z, the cold front was located from Hughes to Jefferson Counties. Despite the NNW/NNE-ly winds behind the front, temperatures are mild and range from the low 80s over central/ southwestern OK to the low 70s across NW OK. Tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s with rain chances increasing from south to north throughout the day.
118 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Cooler temperatures will arrive on Friday and persist into the weekend.
1204 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Breezy northwest winds are expected to decrease tonight as pressure gradient slackens and high pressure builds into the Central Plains.
/Issued 952 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Cold front has cleared all but far southeast Oklahoma at this time.
The main upper trough and jet support is moving off to our ENE very quickly, but we still have a somewhat unstable atmosphere and high shear/helicity values. Cold front is just west of CKV and still a couple hours away from moving through BNA/MQY.
A quiet pattern will setup across the region through the next 24 hours as a large ridge moves overhead. No rain is expected across the area with the ridge overhead and much of the rainfall being shunted north and west of the region. High temperatures will be warm this afternoon and in the low 80s.
250 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 An upper level low was moving onshore in southern California near San Diego. A cold front was just now passing by Hereford on its way to the southwest.
Large area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving from west to east across east Tennessee ahead of a cold front.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a low pressure system moves across Arizona.
A cut off low over Srn CA approaching from the west will open up to a trough today as it moves east across AZ and NM.
350 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Windy and cooler but not cold today - Dry weather to prevail till midweek - Southern stream system moves into Thursday? -- Windy and cooler but not cold today-- The only impactful weather today will be gusty winds. It will be cooler than the past few days but not significantly cooler than normal.
In the upper atmosphere, split flow with a closed low just off the southern California coast and southwest flow from the low into the southern plains and lower Mississippi valley region. Surface cold front pushed through the area earlier yesterday with strong to severe storms over eastern Missouri during the late afternoon. A cooler and drier air mass at the surface has moved in behind the front with temperatures in the mid 40s over central MO and the mid 50s over southern MO. The southern stream closed low is expected to shift east into the four corners region and become more of an open wave with southwest flow expanding northward into the central plains and mid Mississippi valley.
Cold front over middle Tennessee is providing the lift for scattered to numerous showers moving into the eastern part of Tennessee as showers from earlier convection that moved southeast from eastern KY late in the evening along a warm front that were widespread a few hours ago have now reduced to more scattered to widely scattered over northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Temperatures now are in the mild lower to mid 60s and should stay nearly steady ahead of the cold front as southwest winds should stay around 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts during the early morning hours.
127 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 At 125 AM CDT, the cold front was approaching Nashville, Dickson, and Linden. Cold front is just west of CKV and still a couple hours away from moving through BNA/MQY.
/Issued 937 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ High pressure center is currently across the northeast GOMEX. Overnight, the surface level stationary front will transition to a cold front bringing a line of showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms into North Georgia in the early morning. In general, the greatest rain chances will be across North Georgia in closest proximity to the passing upper-level disturbances and farther from the influence of high pressure across the Gulf.
311 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Rain is expected through early morning with a crossing cold front.
1048 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cyclone was in the development phase across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today. It brought precipitation across the region, which was followed by northwest winds and cooler air. On Friday high pressure will build across the region. High pressure will keep the forecast area dry over the weekend.
Morning surface analysis plots a cold front from the Ohio Valley southwest to the ArkLaTex and across north TX. The western portion of the front across north TX is likely close to stalling as pressures begin to fall to the west in advance of an upper level low pressure in the southern stream over southern CA/northern Baja.
955 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Showers will continue across most of the region through Friday as a low pressure system moves inland over Southern California.
1035 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from Diamond Lake WI to Oelwein IA. On Friday, high pressure will build across the region.
Lowering CIGS forecast by morning across KMAF/KHOB with MVFR to IFR conditions behind a weak cold front. Still this evening/tonight a minor mid-level shrtwv trof will come out from nrn MX into the Trans Pecos and PB resulting in scattered SHRA/isold TSRA. Fri will be cooler across the PB n of I-20 with highs in the 60s and 70s and then cooler Sun with highs in the 60s, possibly 50s across the northern areas, per NAM12? SW flow aloft is forecast to remain active/wet Tue-Thur.
634 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Surface front will stall across north Texas today with much cooler and somewhat drier air filtering south in the lower levels. Meanwhile, a few thousand feet aloft strengthening WAA will develop along with forcing from approaching upper trough will result in increasing rain chances across north Texas and Oklahoma through the day today. Cold front begins to retreat back north tonight as a warm front.
Just north of this a trough of Arctic air runs from Nunavut up to the front range of British Columbia where it becomes more Pacific in nature and then continues to its base just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The sharpest temperature gradient lies along southern Alberta where the cold front is firming up. Today: Cold front will begin pushing south into north central Montana this morning but will encounter massive resistance from a amplifying ridge over eastern Montana.
5 inches as far northeast as Huron-Sioux Falls-near Spencer IA, though if dry air is strong enough, this may still be on the high side for these locations. Temperatures will be closer to normal than we've seen recently, even several degrees below normal with the clouds/cool air mass across the area on Saturday, though still expecting highs above freezing Saturday, with most in the mid-upper 30s.
Also seems a bit early for disturbances to ride the periphery of the mid level ridge that is centered over the gulf. This mid level ridge actually strengthens into the weekend keeping fronts stalling along its 584dam height field. As the ridge strengthens, the 584 will get pushed northward causing the current front to weaken and replace northward.
411 AM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Split flow pattern continues with upper low along the southern CA coast and active west-northwest flow aloft across northern half of the CONUS. A cold front extended from southwest MT through central SD into northern WI. South-southeast upslope flow along the Cheyenne Ridge is producing areas of freezing fog and drizzle. WYDOT webcams indicated very low visibilities across the South Laramie Range Foothills, and this zone was added to the Freezing Fog Advisory valid until Noon MDT. Short range models/ensembles remain in good agreement with the CA upper low transitioning to an open wave and lifting northeast across the central/southern Rockies and High Plains later this afternoon and tonight.
943 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 A cold front will make its way east across the area this morning.
KINK will be on the edge of the lower ceilings, but expected MVFR cigs prevailing around the same time frame as KMAF/KHOB fall to IFR (14-16z window). A cut off low over Srn CA approaching from the west will open up to a trough today as it moves east across AZ and NM. As this trough passes off to the east Saturday another closed low moves down along the edge of OR Saturday.