Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Stout southerly flow expected across the area tonight in advance of a cold front approaching fro the west. Have kept lows near record levels for the month of February in the low and mid 50s. Cold front will work its way across the forecast area on Monday. Once the cold front moves through, atmosphere becomes more stable and quickly dries out in the low levels. With clouds hanging tough east of I-29 ahead of the front for a better part of the day, kept temperatures towards cooler guidance values. Again, nudged temperatures slightly warmer than the Superblend, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
1011 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over northeast WY, with warm front extending east across northern SD. Upper level analysis shows a ridge over eastern portions of the plains and into the MS river valley, with trough off the pacific NW coast and a weakening low over the Four Corners region. Temps look warm enough for rainfall across much of the area, with a mix possible across the higher Black Hills later tonight before showers exit. Cooler air will filter in, but temps will continue to be well above average, highs in the 50s and lower 60s. Flat ridge will build back into the area Monday night with quiet weather expected. Another cold front will pass through Tuesday night.
Based on guidance trends from last night which were too cool, used the lowest three hourly temperatures from guidance for lows at most spots.
Northern branch of upper split flow will affect our region tonight as a Pacific trof moves across the region. This will produce rain and snow showers, most numerous in the high country with isolated to scattered variety on the plains overnight. Flat ridging/westerly flow in the mid levels then prevails for Monday. So will keep PoP's categorical in the high country through Monday night. A trough will be oriented N-S along the W coast on Wed. , with vorticity moving downstream through the forecast area out of the trough. A cold front pushes through NE MT on Wed.
The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety. Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides east. Pops will wind down from west to east Tuesday as the weakening upper trof makes passage across the area.
1239 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the week.
1008 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the week.
1134 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Stout southerly flow expected across the area tonight in advance of a cold front approaching fro the west. Have kept lows near record levels for the month of February in the low and mid 50s. Cold front will work its way across the forecast area on Monday. Once the cold front moves through, atmosphere becomes more stable and quickly dries out in the low levels. With clouds hanging tough east of I-29 ahead of the front for a better part of the day, kept temperatures towards cooler guidance values. Again, nudged temperatures slightly warmer than the Superblend, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
WV imagery shows the upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Expect cigs to raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the next 18 hours. /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over the region tomorrow. In its wake high pressure will build over the area.
A nearly stationary frontal boundary extended from South Central Oklahoma this evening Southeast through Northeast and East texas and Northwest, and Southeast Louisiana, while to the west a cold front trailed South from South Central Oklahoma into Southwest Texas. Aloft a trough of low pressure in the middle levels extended South across the Rockies and across West Texas and into Mexico. For Monday night the upper trough of low pressure indicated a closing of the South extent of the system into a closed low with showers and thunderstorms lingering overnight and tapering off for Tuesday from Northwest to Southeast over the forecast area. As the closed upper low moves across the Northern Gulf of Mexico rain chances will affect the East and Southeast sections of the region before ending late Tuesday night.
558 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will push east through the region Tuesday night.
Well, the clouds lingered around a bit longer than anticipated today, and robbed us of slightly warmer temperatures. Monday will see the upper ridge axis cross overhead, so temps look to be warmer than today, with most of the mid state seeing low to mid 70s. Rain chances will move in on Tuesday morning and continue through the day as the upper trough progresses eastward. It now looks to develop a closed low early Tuesday morning along the Gulf Coast and slow down as the main trough continues towards the Atlantic. The GFS really shows stretching between the trough and the closed low, as does the NAM.
919 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will continue across the area overnight. /Issued 158 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the state through the short term. BDL Models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over the CWA through Tuesday afternoon.
Deep layer ridging will prevail overnight, with dry northerly flow gradually becoming more easterly. Lows will fall into the lower 50s region-wide. The upper level pattern begins highly amplified with a sharp ridge from the eastern GOMEX to Hudson Bay and a deep trough extending from the northern Plains into central America.
It's been a warm day across the ArkLaMiss region as upper ridging remains firmly in place over the region. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the upper 70s across the Highway 82 corridor and the lower 80s elsewhere. A front will slowly track toward our region but will have a hard time entering my CWA until later Monday into Tuesday as the upper ridge will keep a hold on the area.
629 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the week.
1247 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight followed by slightly cooler but still mild air. For Monday through at least midday Tuesday, high pressure will provide more fair weather and above normal temperatures.
High pressure is in control over the region this evening.
/Issued 451 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Main upper lift assoc w/ approaching trough is moving across the Panhandles ATTM. A weak cold front will move across the area Monday in the wake of the aforementioned upper system. A closed low will develop across SE TX through TUE as the upper trough moves east and splits into nrn and srn systems. Mid-upr level ridging will develop in its wake leading to warming temps and large diurnal ranges given low atmospheric moisture content and above normal SFC temps as H85 thermal ridging develops across the area.
1225 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight, then move offshore on Tuesday.
high and mid level moisture will slowly increase early this period ahead of the current trough seen in the Southern Rockies. Highs tomorrow will climb a degree or two warmer than today. Will someone hit 80F and/or break a record? Deeper moisture with the approaching trough will arrive Monday night and Tuesday.
A weakening cold front is expected to move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. A stronger low pressure system may affect the area towards the later parts of the week. Model data suggest a short wave trough will push through the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday, dragging a weakening cold front through the local area. Will go with PoPs starting Monday night and continuing through early Tuesday evening to cover the passage of this system, with the highest PoPs coinciding with the best lift.
A warm front will spread across eastern WA and OR Monday morning.
1003 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Weakening upper low lifting from the 4 corners across Colorado this afternoon, with periods of moderate/heavy snow along the Continental Divide and mainly isolated showers/sprinkles elsewhere. For tonight, upper low/trough lifts northeast through the area, with precip ending from south to north along the Continental Divide overnight. Will keep current advisories up into the evening, with a few more inches of snow set to accumulate over the higher peaks by midnight. On Monday, dry weather returns to the region as upper ridge builds across the srn Rockies.
1129 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 After some overnight and morning fog in the low lying areas and valleys, most of the area has seen some sunshine this afternoon. Most locations were in the low to mid 70s, with the exception of where the clouds are still holding on, where readings were still in the mid 60s. Upper level ridge axis was transitioning eastward across the area today with some low level warm advection, aiding in the very warm February temperatures. The ridge will depart to the east tonight with a trough of low pressure gradually moving in from the west late tonight into Monday. The trough will gradually push across the area on Monday into Monday night, with most of the precipitation ending by 12z Tue.
1047 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure is centered across the Ohio River Valley, meanwhile a low pressure system and its upper level trough are receding east into the western north Atlantic. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints are falling through 70. Given the diffluent flow in the lower troposphere and the lack of moisture on the KKEY and KMFL 00Z RAOBs, we see no reason to make any adjustments to the forecast. From synopsis, a weak cold front will push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys overnight. High pressure centered over the southeast United States, in conjunction with a departing low pressure system over the western north Atlantic, will result in moderate breezes boxing to the east Monday night and Tuesday.
859 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will build North of the region Overnight.
Short range models show good difluent flow ahead of the next trof which is resulting in today's light precipitation. Current trend is to have the high moisture content of the plume hit California overnight and into Monday.
Dew point temperatures are low enough that it wouldn't take much to completely mix the fog out as it moves over the warmer waters.
High pressure is building in Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening, with mostly clear skies and light/calm winds.
350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Weakening upper low lifting from the 4 corners across Colorado this afternoon, with periods of moderate/heavy snow along the Continental Divide and mainly isolated showers/sprinkles elsewhere. For tonight, upper low/trough lifts northeast through the area, with precip ending from south to north along the Continental Divide overnight. Will keep current advisories up into the evening, with a few more inches of snow set to accumulate over the higher peaks by midnight. On Monday, dry weather returns to the region as upper ridge builds across the srn Rockies.
Light winds associated with a departing ridge of high pressure will likely lead to fog formation once again tonight, with a potential of some dense fog late tonight into early Monday morning.
632 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight then extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
Lift and moisture ahead of upper trough moving through west Texas and New Mexico tonight focusing further east with time with only a few light rain showers remaining from the eastern Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region. WV imagery shows the upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Expect cigs to raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the next 18 hours. /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over the region tomorrow. In its wake high pressure will build over the area.
Breezy conditions are expected at times through mid-week with cooler temperatures reaching the area later in the week. It is possible the advisory will need to be upgraded to a warning at some point if models come together on the higher amounts forecast to spillover onto the eastern Sierra slopes by the GFS/NAM. Snow amounts for the Spring Mountains are forecast to be light (2-4 inches) and confined to the higher elevations (above 8000 feet). We will also see warmer temperatures Monday with highs around 5 degrees above normal.
Once the fog lifts, it should be a great vfr operations day with a most pleasant amplified ridge taking up residence over the eastern United States.
Tonight Through Tuesday An upper ridge is over the eastern half of the country this afternoon with an upper trough over the Rockies and Southern Plains. This upper trough will move into the Central Plains Monday and to the east coast by late Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will move into the Plains tonight. Moisture will increase ahead of the cold front tonight and rain chances will increase by Monday morning.
1011 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will push east through the region Tuesday night.
Latest satellite imagery shows cloud coverage south of I-70 continuing to dissipate under increasing subsidence as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Dry and mild conditions will continue on Monday with high pressure remaining the dominant feature. Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the region into Tuesday.
512 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 An elongated trough from Montana down through northern Mexico has started to slowly progress to the east and interact with the large ridge currently in place over the midwest.
A ridge of high pressure building in has lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds.
532 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 After some overnight and morning fog in the low lying areas and valleys, most of the area has seen some sunshine this afternoon. Most locations were in the low to mid 70s, with the exception of where the clouds are still holding on, where readings were still in the mid 60s. Upper level ridge axis was transitioning eastward across the area today with some low level warm advection, aiding in the very warm February temperatures. The ridge will depart to the east tonight with a trough of low pressure gradually moving in from the west late tonight into Monday. The trough will gradually push across the area on Monday into Monday night, with most of the precipitation ending by 12z Tue.
Temperatures were running several degrees cooler than forecast under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind this evening. It's been a warm day across the ArkLaMiss region as upper ridging remains firmly in place over the region. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the upper 70s across the Highway 82 corridor and the lower 80s elsewhere. A front will slowly track toward our region but will have a hard time entering my CWA until later Monday into Tuesday as the upper ridge will keep a hold on the area.
Pacific upper level trough brought showers and isolated thunderstorms to our CWA today. Trough was exiting east- northeast and showers have decreased this evening, but skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night.
553 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 This afternoon, the high pressure ridge responsible for the quiet weather is moving out to the east coast. A couple of waves within the general trof over the southwest will drive the forecast through the next 24 hours.
1016 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak disturbance will return light precipitation chances to the forecast overnight, with some patchy freezing rain possible across northwest Pennsylvania and the Allegheny valleys.
955 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Widespread rain is expected through Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. Upper level ridging over the southeastern states will continue. A warm front stretching from central GA into the southern Midlands will continue to slowly lift northward overnight. Temperatures should hold steady or rise slightly overnight as the warm front moves north. QPF amounts for the entire short term period are forecast around 1 to 1 1/2 inches with the highest amounts in the western portions of the CWA. Subtropical ridge off the southeast coast will promote southwesterly flow aloft. Forecasting 50s north of the warm front and lower 70s south of the front although confidence is low.
Finally rid of this marine airmass, cooler temperatures are expected MON night with still warm but lower readings TUE afternoon.
609 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 Upper air analysis features a deepening trof of low pressure across the western CONUS and rising heights from the southeast to the Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to slide east into the Ohio River Valley with return flow already taking shape across the western CWA this afternoon.
1054 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region though Monday.
310 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2017 One system travels south of the area this evening while westerly flow and the polar jet and approaching cold front consolidate over the northern half of the area through the next 48 hours. The cold front that will stretch across the area tonight should remain stalled there through Monday night. The eastern Uinta Mountains will border on snow advisory criteria and will stand watching, though the general westerly flow at mountaintop level is a better snow producer over the higher western Uinta mountains than over the eastern part of the range.
Tomorrow, the approach and passage of a cold front will bring veering winds and clearing skies. For Monday, an upper trough will pass by to our north while an associated dry cold front will push southward through deep south TX. Downsloping effects and the drier airmass will actually bring a warmer day to the region on Monday than what will be seen today.
815 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 An upper ridge is situated over the Atlantic adjacent to FL and the surface reflection is centered over the central North Atlantic and ridging broadly over FL producing a general southeast to southerly wind flow. Southerly to southeasterly winds continue over the waters through mid week as a low pressure system develops along the northern Gulf Coast.
705 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will slide slowly into the area from the southwest early this week.
Low pressure approaching on Monday will then bring a strong surge of MVFR followed by IFR CIGS pushing south to north across the area during the late morning and afternoon.
For Monday, an upper trough will pass by to our north while an associated dry cold front will push southward through deep south TX. Downsloping effects and the drier airmass will actually bring a warmer day to the region on Monday than what will be seen today.
Will include MVFR visibility for the wind and rain, but think ceilings may stay in the low VFR category. /issued 201 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ A well defined upper low INVOF SE AZ is moving e and will track across the CWFA overnight and mosaic radar shows -SHRA moving into far W TX. It still appears that the low will waste no time moving across CWFA. The window is brief but the highest elevations of the Davis/GDP Mtns could see some snow/sleet, less than an inch. Clearing skies in wake of the low and downslope winds Mon PM will support high temps that area approximately 5 degrees above normal. On Tue cold air will likely make a backdoor push into the n-ne CWFA and temps could be as much as 10 degrees cooler than they were on Mon.
617 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Widespread rain is expected through Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. Upper level ridging over the southeastern states will continue. A warm front stretching from central GA into the south tip of SC will slowly lift northward into the Midlands overnight. Temperatures should hold steady or rise slightly overnight as the warm front moves north. QPF amounts for the entire short term period are forecast around 1 to just over 2 inches with the highest amounts in the southwestern portion of the area. Subtropical ridge off the southeast coast will promote southwesterly flow aloft. Forecasting 50s north of the warm front and lower 70s south of the front although confidence is low.
/Issued 334 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ A short wave trough will pass east out of the southern Rockies and across West Texas tonight.
740 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will slide slowly into the area from the southwest early this week.
With the low clouds don't expect much improvement until morning or as front starts to move north. An accompanying warm front will also lift north triggering an increase in showers and thunderstorms after midnight. 60F plus dewpoints will overspread into the southern and central portions of the Midsouth as the Low pushes in.
439 PM MST Sun Jan 1 2017 One system travels south of the area this evening while westerly flow and the polar jet and approaching cold front consolidate over the northern half of the area through the next 48 hours. The cold front that will stretch across the area tonight should remain stalled there through Monday night. The eastern Uinta Mountains will border on snow advisory criteria and will stand watching, though the general westerly flow at mountaintop level is a better snow producer over the higher western Uinta mountains than over the eastern part of the range.
706 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak disturbance will lift north across the area tonight as high pressure moves east. Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers, especially Monday night.
657 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Warm front pushes northeast tonight into Monday night.
The snow showers are associated with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest.
702 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure moving into the southern plains will cause increasing cloudiness in our area tonight, with patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle possible toward morning across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.
This trend will continue northward across the entire outlook area overnight as a pseudo warm front lifts north. Base of the trof over the Desert southwest is progged to move east and only slightly north as it moves into Arkansas late Monday afternoon. Warm air advection out ahead of this system streams moisture and isentropic lift into our area through the overnight and morning hours into Monday, so despite a warmer day ahead, much of it will be spent in clouds/fog and areas of drizzle. Could be a little optimistic the farther north you go, given a day in clouds and precip, but as the wave moves east and the next front drives southward, a thermal ridge of 6-9C at 850mb noses over our area in the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system aloft will slowly weaken through Monday before drifting off the Oregon coast Monday night.
The second issue is the introduction of warmer air aloft by the late morning which could melt the ice crystals before they reach the ground.