Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
408 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 The cold front that pushed through the CWA yesterday is now stalled across central/southern GA. Behind the front, drier, cooler air has settled in, bringing a respite from the soupy summer air that has plagued north and central GA lately.
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 An upper level ridge will be centered directly overhead today bringing even more heat to the region. An uncharacteristically strong surface lee trough for late June will develop this afternoon extending from southeastern Colorado through southeastern New Mexico. Breezy southerly winds will develop from this surface pressure troughing. With the ridge overhead, there will not be much if any at all in the way of large scale ascent. Despite the expanding ridge, this may be enough to generate very isolated thunderstorm activity. The upper high over the region will begin to flatten tomorrow as upper troughing pushes southward from Canada.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week with seasonal summertime heat and humidity returning for the final weekend of June. MaxTs will be +8 to +15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in 70s. Another mainly clear and cool night ahead with fcst low temps in the mid 40s-50s tilted toward the low end of NBM distribution. Trending warmer through late week with rising 500mb heights and 850mb temps.
This feature however is expected to stall as upper troughing over the eastern US quickly lifts northeast allowing for high pressure over the central US to nose into the area. With the influences of the upper ridge, a more standard diurnal cycle with a land breeze developing overnight and a seabreeze developing during the afternoon. The one thing likely inhibiting a more widespread event is the presence from the upper ridge likely keeping storms on the lower coverage side. One thing that is noted especially on soundings of some of the higher resolution guidance is that a nose of dry air from the 700MB to 500MB level is present in the sounding with very moist and deep boundary layer below it.
We can expect one more day of fine summer weather before the ridge pushes off to the east, thus allowing for return flow, warmer temperatures and higher dew points starting Thursday.
A front has moved south of the area early this morning but will begin a slow crawl back to the north as a weak warm front this afternoon and evening.
319 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will be in charge today. Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days under a mostly sunny sky. We are in the midst of a quiet dry and pleasant near term period with high pressure in charge. High pressure is advancing up the Ohio Valley, nosing into our region. The high pressure center will drift almost directly across the area today for a stunning sunny day. The high will slide off the east coast tonight, with continued mostly clear skies. An area of low pressure developing in the central US helps increase the SW flow over the Northeast with increasing heat and humidity through the short term.
134 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will offer mostly dry conditions through Thursday.
318 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue east of the area today as high pressure builds in from the west.
Additionally, mid level heights will build as upper ridge expands from southwest TX and thermal profiles will warm accordingly.
1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance A tranquil weather pattern will continue through much of the near term as high pressure remains in control. In the upper levels, northwest flow will gradually be replaced by a ridge building east from the Plains. Meanwhile, lows will moderate from the lower/middle 50s tonight into the lower 60s Wednesday night and lower 70s by Thursday night. With high pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast, southerly flow will be in full force bringing in warmer temperatures and copious amounts of moisture.
A large ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and tomorrow. Highs on Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s.
202 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front moves well offshore this evening. High pressure will then build in from the west Wednesday, slide to the northeast of the area Wed night and then remain stationary through the end of the week.
Another wet day is expected across a majority of the forecast area as an upper level trough remains in place across the region.
227 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic states through Thursday.
1108 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Weak cold front slips into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota late Wednesday afternoon.
325 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic states through Thursday.
This high is forecast to shift to the east/southeast tonight into the day on Wednesday, with south/southeasterly return flow beginning in its wake. For tonight, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along a warm front from Nebraska eastward into Iowa. Gosselin An active weather pattern is in store Thursday through at least this upcoming weekend with west/southwest flow aloft and a slow-moving cold front moving through the region.
243 AM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A strong upper ridge will result in another quite warm and mainly dry afternoon today. A weak impulse moving over the ridge will send a weak cold front down across our area late today. CAMS (convective allowing models) have been focusing convection from the Beartooths to the Pryors and Big Horns late in the day, so we have the highest PoPs in these areas. For Thursday, short wave energy out of Canada will track into the high plains late in the day. Enjoy the cooler, but still above normal temperature, this weekend.
The air mass is pretty dry so despite the trough passing through, expect dry conditions to prevail. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s but humidity will be low so it will feel great for late June.
Region remains under gradually weakening northwest upper flow pattern as east coast trough lifts northeast into the western Atlantic and upper ridging builds back into the southern plains. "Cold" front settles into south Georgia and stalls with surface ridging building down in the lee of the Appalachians.
Through the day, moisture will advect northward, with most upstream dew point values right now in the low 50s. Modification of the boundary layer moisture, and pooling along the cold front would provide the opportunity for dew point values into the mid-upper 50s within some areas of the warm sector, ahead of the cold fropa. Slight cooler temperatures on Thursday with weak ridging leading to mainly quiet weather. Shower and storm chances rapidly decrease midway through the period as a rather strong signal for ridging puts us in perpetual northerly to northwesterly flow within a dry airmass.
The late night mixing will keep overnight lows near sixty across the Devils Lake basing while west central MN sites will drop into the lower 50s. H5 thermal ridging allows temperatures to climb sharply with highs expected to soar into the middle 90s, with perhaps upper 90s for the southern Red River Valley. A cold front pushes through the area during Wednesday evening, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region. As an upper level ridge builds in over the western CONUS, induced northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the northern Plains.
Some storms may be strong to severe as 500mb temperatures remain cooler (around -10C) today leading to possible small hail in the strongest/widest updrafts and DCAPE looks to be sufficient for a strong wind gust or two. The highest potential will reside generally in poor drainage and/or urbanized areas.
320 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure centered east of our region will bring southerly winds back to our area. High temperatures will be warmer today, with readings in the lower 80s, but dew points will only rebound into the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight will also be warmer in the 60 to 65 degree range. By Thursday afternoon, models show a weak upper level trof over the western half of the PAH forecast area.
Temps will be warmer today (highs in the mid to upper 80s) with partly cloudy skies. Expect lows in the low 60s to low 70s (warmest west).
328 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Aloft, upper ridging over the Rockies, with a longwave trough over about the eastern third of the country. A subtle boundary was located somewhere around the Interstate 10 corridor, with main difference in airmasses being slightly cooler and drier on the north side of it. We may be a bit on the high side with PoPs for today, but our numbers are in agreement with neighboring offices.
The cold front over Central Alabama and Georgia will limp south through our Florida counties on Wed night, then dissipate over the far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week with seasonal summertime heat and humidity returning for the final weekend of June. MaxTs will be +8 to +15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in 70s. Another mainly clear and cool night ahead with fcst low temps in the mid 40s-50s tilted toward the low end of NBM distribution. Patchy fog is possible the central ridge/valley region toward the mid/lower Susquehanna Valley around daybreak Thursday. Trending warmer through late week with rising 500mb heights and 850mb temps.
Mid level lapse rates will also begin to steepen through the afternoon and evening Wednesday with a wave likely sparking at least isolated to scattered convection over the High Plains. Currently, NW IA and surrounding areas likely carry the highest precipitation and severe weather potential.
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ /Through Thursday/ Water vapor imagery indicates an upper low approaching the California Coast and an upper trough planted across the Northeast. Between these 2 features, large scale anticyclonic flow reveals the presence of a mid/upper ridge covering the Rockies and Southern Plains.
250 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm.
151 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front moving through the area this evening will push south of the area Wednesday morning allowing a little drier air to overspread the area through Thursday.
227 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will be in charge today. Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days under a mostly sunny sky. We are in the midst of a quiet dry and pleasant near term period with high pressure in charge. High pressure is advancing up the Ohio Valley, nosing into our region. The high pressure center will drift almost directly across the area today for a stunning sunny day. The high will slide off the east coast tonight, with continued mostly clear skies. High pressure positioned to the southeast of our area on will develop a steady southerly flow into the region.
(Today and tonight) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over northern Chihuahua and West Texas, resulting in a quiet night across the region. Despite this, and as opposed to 24 hours ago, stratus development is at a minimum, somewhat mitigated by mid/hi lvl moisture streaming through the ridge. Yesterday, NBM, and other models in general, were too cool, and we'll stick on the warmer side of them this afternoon. Thursday, models shift the upper ridge NE into the Arklatex, decreasing thicknesses slightly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for a slightly cooler day than today most areas.
422 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
1157 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving cold front slides offshore this evening, as a wave of low pressure rides north along it.
357 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Warmer air will begin to return today and be accompanied by scattered light showers into early this afternoon. Conditions will turn warmer today and very warm Thursday with highs close to 85 Thursday afternoon.
Tonight Through Thursday To begin the period, cooler, drier air has settled over much of the CWA behind a strong cold front that pushed through the state yesterday. This trend will continue into tomorrow, although slightly warmer. High pressure continues to build in promoting clear skies. The next chance for rain will come toward the end of the period as high pressure moves to the east returning southerly flow to the CWA.
Temperatures should begin to warm back up on Wednesday into the mid to upper 80s as low level warm advection begins to increase over the area and upper ridging nudges into the plains. Will need to watch out for a potential decaying MCS that overruns the ridge and possibly into our northern CWA in the morning on Thursday. Dew points in the low to mid 70s are expected however with temperatures in the low to mid 90s which gives us head index values in the 100 to 105 degree range and some in the 105 to 108 degree range out in our western CWA.
The axis of the upper ridge will shift directly over TX Wednesday afternoon w/the 593-594 dam high centered over W TX. Due to increasing hghts/thickness under the upper ridge, temperatures will climb back to near the triple digits. Storms should dissipate by sunset and a modest LLJ will keep lows on the warmer side by Thursday morning.
With a large ridge building over the western CONUS and western Canada the Upper Midwest will be downstream of this feature likely missing the hottest air. We will however have a few troughs passing through which will give some support for our next chance for some much needed rain. The best chance for rain continues to be on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Scattered patches of high clouds continue to spread southeastward across the TN Valley this morning, within west-northwest flow aloft downstream from a mid-level vort max dropping southeastward from the Lower-OH Valley/Ozarks. The presence of the clouds has not had a significant impact on radiational cooling, and with calm-light ENE flow observed along the southwestern rim of a ridge positioned over the central Appalachians, we expect temperatures to fall another degree or two before sunrise. Sunny skies and light/variable flow in the boundary layer will lead to a slightly warmer afternoon, with highs in the l-m 80s. Winds aloft will begin to diminish on Thursday/Thursday night, as a subtropical ridge centered across the Red River Valley of OK/TX begins to expand eastward into the region. Related moisture advection in the lower troposphere will allow precipitable water values to increase into the 1.
Weak trough axis aloft will continue to push slowly southward, with ridge axis lifting a bit northward toward the Lake Okeechobee region by late day.
Today and Tonight: A mid-level ridge in place over the Rockies early this morning will build east into the adjacent plains today into tonight. In the low levels, a lee trough will be maintained over the High Plains with CAM data suggesting the development of another confluence zone over northern NE later today. Abundant sunshine combined with the advection of a warmer low- level air mass into the region will push afternoon temperatures into the 90s at most locations. By late afternoon into evening, weak height falls spreading into the High Plains coupled with convergence along the above-mentioned surface boundaries will foster widely scattered thunderstorms over portions of western NE.
654 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will be in charge today. Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days under a mostly sunny sky. We are in the midst of a quiet dry and pleasant near term period with high pressure in charge. High pressure is advancing up the Ohio Valley, nosing into our region. The high pressure center will drift almost directly across the area today for a stunning sunny day. The high will slide off the east coast tonight, with continued mostly clear skies. An area of low pressure developing in the central US helps increase the SW flow over the Northeast with increasing heat and humidity through the short term.
A large ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and tomorrow. Highs on Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s. Surface ridging will persist east of the Appalachians during the period. Meanwhile, aloft, ridging waxes and wanes east of the Appalachians, and troughing develops and very slowly heads east over the central CONUS. The upper level trough will support a cold front which may advance as far as southern IL to lower MI during the weekend, but then stall. That being the case, the forecast continues to back off on the POP, with most if not all of the weekend probably being dry, and the highest POP of 50% not arriving until the Mon/Tue time frame. High pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and tomorrow.
A large ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and tomorrow. Highs on Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s. Surface ridging will persist east of the Appalachians during the period. Meanwhile, aloft, ridging waxes and wanes east of the Appalachians, and troughing develops and very slowly heads east over the central CONUS. The upper level trough will support a cold front which may advance as far as southern IL to lower MI during the weekend, but then stall. That being the case, the forecast continues to back off on the POP, with most if not all of the weekend probably being dry, and the highest POP of 50% not arriving until the Mon/Tue time frame.
634 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm.
929 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
On Thursday, flow shifts to the northwest ahead of a building ridge of high pressure over the west coast of the U. Beyond Thursday, the ridge over the west coast will continue to amplify and strengthen.
635 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front drops south of the area this morning. Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north this afternoon into Thursday with below normal temperatures.
905 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will be in charge today. Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days under a mostly sunny sky. We are in the midst of a quiet dry and pleasant near term period with high pressure in charge. High pressure is advancing up the Ohio Valley, nosing into our region. The high pressure center will drift almost directly across the area today for a stunning sunny day. The high will slide off the east coast tonight, with continued mostly clear skies. An area of low pressure developing in the central US helps increase the SW flow over the Northeast with increasing heat and humidity through the short term.
A weak inverted trough lifting north across the region, favorable steering flow between the upper low to the west and high pressure aloft to the east, PWATs between 1-1. At the same time, high pressure aloft shifts back westward, with a flat ridge across the desert southwest and a highly amplitude ridge developing across the northern portion of the western United States and the upper high centered in the Pacific Northwest by late this weekend.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with this front and the chance of thunderstorms higher. Ridge rebounds to the west into the weekend even stronger.
Should see a general decreasing coverage trend as we go through the morning as the mid level energy moves out of the area with a building ridge. By tonight moisture drops back to closer to normal (although the NAM is a bit higher), so expect mainly dry conditions tonight through Thursday with the mid level ridge remaining the main feature. Temperatures warm a bit west today, to near 100 while eastern areas remain in the lower 90s. A degree or two warmer for Thursday.
556 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
630 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue east of the area today as high pressure builds in from the west.
940 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic states through Thursday.
/issued 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ An upper level ridge will be centered directly overhead today bringing even more heat to the region. An uncharacteristically strong surface lee trough for late June will develop this afternoon extending from southeastern Colorado through southeastern New Mexico. Breezy southerly winds will develop from this surface pressure troughing. With the ridge overhead, there will not be much if any at all in the way of large scale ascent. Despite the expanding ridge, this may be enough to generate very isolated thunderstorm activity. The upper high over the region will begin to flatten tomorrow as upper troughing pushes southward from Canada.
729 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
The large upper ridge pushes farther east with the axis lining up through the heart of the Great Plains. Latest guidance actually backed off the high heat, but kept max temps where they were given further WAA at H85 and ample early sunshine. The setup favors initiation near the boundary, or perhaps farther west off the higher terrain, mid to late afternoon. If that's the case, the more robust convection will depend on the low level jet for additional lift. The ridge flattens and broadens somewhat over the central/eastern US, while the surface boundary nudges into eastern Neb.
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Warmer air will begin to return today and be accompanied by scattered light showers into early this afternoon. Conditions will turn warmer today and very warm Thursday with highs close to 85 Thursday afternoon.
Diurnal warming will get an assist from difluent flow aloft combined with divergence below the left exit of the jet flowing eastward along the base of the low in generating high based storms over the higher terrain of southeast Utah beginning late this morning. Moisture will continue to surge into the region from the southwest overnight as the low off the West Coast remains nearly stationary.
High pressure centered east of our region will bring southerly winds back to our area. High temperatures will be warmer today, with readings in the lower 80s, but dew points will only rebound into the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight will also be warmer in the 60 to 65 degree range. By Thursday afternoon, models show a weak upper level trof over the western half of the PAH forecast area.
Cooler temperatures arrive on Thursday as shower and thunderstorm chances persist over much of the region.
515 AM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Upper ridging is crossing the Rockies from NM to MT, as an upper low just offshore the CA remain stationary. A cold front will push south across the CWA tonight.
728 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will push south of the area today, allowing a little drier air to overspread the area through Thursday.
Temperatures are currently 10-15 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday morning, with lows this morning in the mid 60s to low 70s. The upper level ridge with associated H500 high pressure system continues to build and move east across the Southern Plains today. The ridge will aid in warming up the Panhandles today under mostly clear skies and high temperatures today are forecast to be at or near records for this day.
739 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and remain through the end of the week.
932 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm.
646 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will push south of the area today, allowing a little drier air to overspread the area through Thursday.
907 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front drops south of the area this morning. Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north this afternoon into Thursday with below normal temperatures.