Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight we see an increase in cloud cover ahead of the next system, but temperatures will still dip into the low and mid 20s prior to that.
415 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will bring periods of rain today into Monday. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 60s south of U. It then turns warmer through the workweek, however unsettled weather will persist with times of showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Broad and shallow 500 mb ridging will prevail over much of the southern U. and northern Mexico with a general weakness in the ridge axis persistent over the TX coastline Sun and Mon. The ECMWF temps remain warmer than the NAM and GFS numbers through Mon and will lean closer to the ECMWF numbers as believe that the NAM/GFS are not handling the expected warmup too well.
331 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from the Keokuk Iowa to Milwaukee. As the trough moves away from the area this afternoon.
VFR will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 52 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 52 75 55 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 46 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0.
344 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Current radar imagery shows rain and snow south of our area, focused along a mid-level frontogenesis band north of the cold front that passed through yesterday. While it will remain breezy, wind gusts should remain limited to the lower 20s. Overnight, a weak high pressure system slides by our south, turning winds southerly by Monday morning. The HREF ensemble along with the NBM are suggesting that an inch of snow is possible along the James River Valley, and also along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
440 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A notable 10+ deg F split in temperatures between ridges and valleys is present early this morning. The warm air advection will be in advance of a cold front which will stall as it reaches northern and western KY tonight.
Zonal flow aloft and high pressure over the Mid Atlantic will set up a broad area of subsidence. Our short term forecast will be dominated by a building upper level ridge that will settle over the Southeast early this week. Both of these features will help prevent the approaching cold front from progressing into the TN Valley, and therefore we should remain dry early this week. However, southerly surface winds will usher in more Gulf moisture, causing dew points to once again rise into the low to mid 60s on Monday.
Winds will generally be westerly to southwesterly each afternoon with the faster winds over the higher terrain.
Warmer today with lots of sunshine. 2 AM temps are generally in the low to upper 40's, except for some mid to upper 30's in far NE TN, parts of SW VA, and in the mountains and parts of SW NC. This will drag a cold front to a position from northern OH to central AR by this evening.
(Today and tonight) Another cold front is expected to roll across the Big Country today. Warmer conditions will persist across areas south of there, with most areas sitting in the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, look for breezy conditions with winds sustained at 15 to 20 MPH range behind the cold front.
Although the low level dewpoints may increase some overnight into later today, do not expect any significant ceiling or vsby reductions through the next 24 hours. /issued 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Broad high pressure building back into the Gulf is currently shifting the northerly winds to south/southeasterly. This light southerly to southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to warm through the short term period with warmer temperatures expected for Sunday as well as decreasing clouds across Deep South Texas.
Cold front will move into NE OK by mid morning and focus a zone of IFR ceilings, patchy fog and light showers as it moves into SE OK / west central AR by late afternoon. Cold front currently across northern Kansas is expected to be across extreme northeast Oklahoma as we approach 12z Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and a even a thunderstorm will be possible overnight across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in advance of the cold front as moisture increases across the region.
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front is surging southward across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon.
That will change today though as moisture gets pumped into the region as a cold front advances toward us. Have focused the highest rain chances where multimodel consensus current places better rains.
145 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cool and dry high pressure will once more contribute to frost concerns across much of western North Carolina before the high pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast. The high will bring a general southerly wind flow over our area early in the week with temperatures warming to a little above normal. A strong cold front will approach our region at the end of the week.
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually building in across the region as a strong cold front dives SE across our area.
Outside of the precip chances, cooler temperatures and a combination of wind gusts 20- 25mph will make for a rather chilly day for anybody outside, with wind chills in the lower 40s all day. The warm front to our south will remain stationary tomorrow, keeping our area in an easterly flow and rather cool with lows in the 30s and highs only in the mid to upper 40s Monday afternoon.
High pressure is quickly retreating off to the east as a great cold front stretches from the Great Lakes to the Great Plains. High pressure has moved off to the northeast and this will allow for a cold front to approach middle TN.
The hemispheric flow pattern remains in a blocked, very stable configuration featuring a high amplitude, stationary Hudson Bay vortex and East Pacific ridge. The position of this ridge- trough longwave set is quite common for the autumn season, and notoriously difficult to dislodge. Have tailored temperatures towards a persistence foreast yielding afternoon highs more towards the lower third percentile of the ensemble spectrum, albeit still some 5F-10F above the seasonal normal. Although notable spread exists among the NAEFS ensemble suite with respect to timing and amplitude of this evolution, there's sufficient evidence to suggest some form of positively tilted troughing descending towards the Great Basin and Rockies later this upcoming weekend. The combination of lowering heights aloft and upstream surface pressure rises should force cooler air southward into the forecast area.
Nice conditions on tap for the next two days as high pressure is in control.
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. Canadian high pressure centered to our NE will continue to direct cool and dry air into our forecast area under NE winds. Guidance means are generally indicating low 40s north to upper 40s south for low temps tonight towards daybreak, although some outlying normally- colder wind protected locations could dip into the upper 30s, with urban centers and lakeshore areas locally warmer near 50.
This will lead to another dry day but temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs in the lower 80s across most of the region. Lows will range from the lower 60s west to the upper 50s east.
Went ahead and started rain in the northwest area TAF sites late tomorrow afternoon as a warm and cold front both approach the area. A cold front will approach the state early Sunday, then is expected to become stationary across northern sections by late Sunday.
Currently, we have an area of high pressure centered over West Virginia with low pressure and a front extending from Iowa into western Kansas. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and lift northeast and should increase rainfall chances over the area Sunday night into Monday, particularily over the southeast half of the CWA, where an inch to inch and a half of rain will be possible through Monday.
Timing of the cold front is such that an initial n wind across the nrn tier of CWFA is likely as early as 15Z and then to MAF 17Z-18Z. Cooler air does lag n of the front and high temps will still likely climb into the 90s in most areas, except n and e of a line from Hobbs-Garden City highs in the 80s, maybe 70s far ne. Highs Tue-Thur will show little change with the low-level ridge remaining near the TX/NM state line. Meanwhile a cold mid-level trof and assocd cold front will be moving s. There is good model agreement that the front will arrive in the PB/SE NM before 12Z Fri with high temps 10-15 degrees cooler Fri PM.
227 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cool and dry air will remain across the area today as high pressure ridges in from the north. High pressure continues to ridge into the area early this morning with an increased pressure gradient keeping at least some wind in the boundary layer. Cooler airmass will modify today with temperatures closer to average in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Winds won't be as breezy today with the center of the high pushing off to the northeast. Temperatures tonight also not as low, mainly remaining in the low to mid 50s. Models indicate southwest flow aloft with a broad upper trough across the northern tier states and upper ridging building into the southeastern states.
337 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 As mentioned earlier this morning, system features with the approaching broad scale trough from the north has initiated decent isentropic lift nearly six to nine hours faster than depicted by short/medium range guidance 24 hours ago.
Stratocu within MVFR is expected as the night progresses as a moist southerly flow overrides cooler air inland. /issued 954 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ Return of onshore flow/WAA yielding warmer temperatures and higher SFC dewpoints, with lows tonight likely to average around 10F or so degrees warmer than last night. Hourly readings running a little warmer than the previous forecast, and are only expected to drop another few degrees before stabilizing. The high pressure that moved in behind the front yesterday has tracked quickly northeast and is pushing off the New England coast at this time. the result has been warmer of DP's. Therefore morning lows tomorrow morning will be about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than the start of todays lows. Tomorrow afternoon highs on Sunday will range in the low to mid 80s.
1124 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 06Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will slide into the northeast and east central plains today, bringing a wind shift and eventually the development of a low stratus deck during the evening hours. A temperature rollercoaster is in store for New Mexico, as rebounded temperatures today will be subject to another cold front Sunday.
Large upper ridge off the CA coast is continuing to provide our area with an unseasonably warm airmass. The ridge is progged to retrograde slightly on Monday resulting in a slight cooling trend taking place across our area after one more afternoon with temperatures 12-16 DEG F above seasonal averages today.
Cold pattern remains firmly in place with the upper trough over the upper midwest.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this morning with light showers. Temperatures will be much cooler today with 40s and 50s across most of the area. Then a warm front will develop and become active for the last half of the week.
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will bring periods of rain today into Monday. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 60s south of U. It then turns warmer through the workweek, however unsettled weather will persist with times of showers and thunderstorms.
358 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 As the short term period begins, a large upper level ridge remains positioned over the mid-Atlantic region, which will keep high pressure entrenched over Georgia. With the increased moisture, lows will be a bit warmer on Monday morning, mainly in the 50s and low 60s across north and central Georgia. King The upper ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to build into north and central GA through late in the week.
In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or weak troughing will be over the region today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the East Coast and Southeast.
544 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this morning with light showers. Temperatures will be much cooler today with 40s and 50s across most of the area. Then a warm front will develop and become active for the last half of the week.
1019 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure that was nearby yesterday has now pushed northeast along the Maine coast. A low pressure is pushing across Canada and centered near the tip of Hudson Bay, with a cold front extending southward into the Central Plains. While we are on the return flow side of the high it is providing more of a downslope flow and therefore drier airmass overall. A notable 10+ deg F split in temperatures between ridges and valleys is present early this morning. The warm air advection will be in advance of a cold front which will stall as it reaches northern and western KY tonight.
Winds remain out of the ENE with high pressure in control, and may become gusty at times due to the tight pressure gradient. Breezy conditions around 15 knots persist for nearshore waters, while winds in excess of 20 knots continue for offshore waters with high pressure in control and a stronger pressure gradient.
A cold front will remain stalled across parts of western Montana, generally along the I-90 corridor.
421 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A strong cold front extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to just north of UIN and to near MKC will continue moving southeastward today. Only light scattered showers are expected this morning across southeast MO in a region of low level temperature and moisture advection with another area of light rain across northeast MO and west central IL in a region of low- mid level frontogenetical forcing just behind the cold front. The showers should become heavier and more widespread across central and southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon into tonight as the low level moisture increases along with increasing elevated instability. It will also be much cooler tonight and Monday with below normal temperatures.
515 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front is progressing southwest into the northeast and east central plains and will result in gusty east-northeast winds at KTCC shortly. A backdoor front will slide down eastern New Mexico today bringing with it cooler temperatures and locally windy conditions over the Eastern Plains.
/Issued 358 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ As the short term period begins, a large upper level ridge remains positioned over the mid-Atlantic region, which will keep high pressure entrenched over Georgia. With the increased moisture, lows will be a bit warmer on Monday morning, mainly in the 50s and low 60s across north and central Georgia. King The upper ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to build into north and central GA through late in the week.
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Dense freezing fog has developed early this morning over the South Laramie Range and adjacent foothills, even spreading eastward into the Interstate 25 corridor including Cheyenne. Moist southeasterly low-level upslope flow should continue to support a well saturated boundary layer w/ the potential for freezing fog to reduce surface visibilities to one quarter of a mile or less at times through mid morning. Temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s may also lead to some icing on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses. This has led to the issuance of a Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT. Mountain waves should become a bit more likely over the South Laramie Range after 06z as omega fields strengthen behind a developing lee trough.
617 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cool and dry air will remain across the area today as high pressure ridges in from the north. High pressure continues to ridge into the area early this morning with an increased pressure gradient keeping at least some wind in the boundary layer. Cooler airmass will modify today with temperatures closer to average in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Winds won't be as breezy today with the center of the high pushing off to the northeast. Temperatures tonight also not as low, mainly remaining in the low to mid 50s. Models indicate southwest flow aloft with a broad upper trough across the northern tier states and upper ridging building into the southeastern states.
We will see increasing southerly flow through the day today as the pressure gradient tightens up due to an approaching frontal boundary and low pressure system, currently centered in Oklahoma. Southerly flow will also advect in warmer, more humid air which will start our warming trend with highs today expected to reach into the low-to-mid 70s. Our short term forecast will be dominated by a building upper level ridge that will settle over the Southeast early this week. Both of these features will help prevent the approaching cold front from progressing into the TN Valley, and therefore we should remain dry early this week. However, southerly surface winds will usher in more Gulf moisture, causing dew points to once again rise into the low to mid 60s on Monday.
Meanwhile, low pressure is forming over the Texas Panhandle ahead of an advancing cold front. Southerly flow is occurring between these features over the forecast area, which is helping to bring warmer temperatures and dew points this early morning. The cold front will stall north of the region on Monday.
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 As mentioned earlier this morning, system features with the approaching broad scale trough from the north has initiated decent isentropic lift nearly six to nine hours faster than depicted by short/medium range guidance 24 hours ago.
419 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 While our active pattern continues this week, today should be relatively dry, but cold as high pressure slides by to our south.
615 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Current radar imagery shows rain and snow south of our area, focused along a mid-level frontogenesis band north of the cold front that passed through yesterday. While it will remain breezy, wind gusts should remain limited to the lower 20s. Overnight, a weak high pressure system slides by our south, turning winds southerly by Monday morning. The HREF ensemble along with the NBM are suggesting that an inch of snow is possible along the James River Valley, and also along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
637 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will bring periods of rain today into Monday. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 60s south of U. It then turns warmer through the workweek, however unsettled weather will persist with times of showers and thunderstorms.
While our active pattern continues this week, today should be relatively dry, but cold as high pressure slides by to our south.
/issued 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Broad and shallow 500 mb ridging will prevail over much of the southern U. and northern Mexico with a general weakness in the ridge axis persistent over the TX coastline Sun and Mon. The ECMWF temps remain warmer than the NAM and GFS numbers through Mon and will lean closer to the ECMWF numbers as believe that the NAM/GFS are not handling the expected warmup too well.
A notable 10+ deg F split in temperatures between ridges and valleys is present early this morning. The warm air advection will be in advance of a cold front which will stall as it reaches northern and western KY tonight.
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from the Keokuk Iowa to Milwaukee. As the trough moves away from the area this afternoon.
This ceiling pattern is likely to persist through much of the morning with a corridor of expanding IFR ceilings and light showers accompanying the cold frontal passage from late morning through the early evening. /Issued 346 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ Cold front at 330 AM extended from norther TX Panhandle to near Wichita to Kansas City and is making steady progress south.
The persistent ridge in the eastern Pacific and trough through most of the country east of us will continue to bring a dry northwesterly flow. This could bring a system through the rockies into the back side of the mean trough position. A blip in the 7 day mean ridge/trough ensemble averages.
1007 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day to end the weekend.
531 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Dense freezing fog has developed early this morning over the South Laramie Range and adjacent foothills, even spreading eastward into the Interstate 25 corridor including Cheyenne. Moist southeasterly low-level upslope flow should continue to support a well saturated boundary layer w/ the potential for freezing fog to reduce surface visibilities to one quarter of a mile or less at times through mid morning. Temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s may also lead to some icing on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses. This has led to the issuance of a Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT. Mountain waves should become a bit more likely over the South Laramie Range after 06z as omega fields strengthen behind a developing lee trough.
713 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Aviation - Scattered Rain through This Afternoon - Another Round of Precip Monday/Monday Night - Active Pattern Through the Rest of the Week - Scattered Rain through This Afternoon - As a cold front continues to approach the area from the west, scattered light rain will persist. Snow will not be out of question, particularly for areas in Central Lower towards US-10 later in the evening as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. - Active Pattern Through the Rest of the Week - We'll see a chance at warmer conditions near mid to late week as a low pressure system lifts a warm front north.
High pressure builds in from the north through the day with the aforementioned boundary stalling across eastern Oklahoma. Areas near the KS/NE border could see some clearing overnight allowing temperatures to fall into the low 30s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere will keep lows a bit warmer in the mid to upper 30s. Because of this, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than we will see today across the western half of the CWA where highs will reach the mid 50s.
Precipitation looks to continue tonight into Monday morning but the precipitation type is more uncertain as some model data is suggesting that a layer of warm air could move in aloft and cause freezing rain to occur. This makes the snowfall forecast more difficult during this period as freezing rain would cut down potential snowfall amounts. Given the expected additional snowfall and possible freezing rain tonight-Monday morning, we have extended the Winter Weather Advisory through 2 PM MDT Monday and added Treasure County to the advisory.
707 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day to end the weekend.
There should be a messy transition across Petroleum County and the lower elevations of Southwest Phillips during the day tomorrow, and then again tomorrow night.
VFR will prevail through the period with just a scattered 7000 to 9000 foot cloud deck moving in ahead of a cold front later this afternoon through tonight. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 55 75 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 51 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 52 75 55 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 46 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Overnight, ely flow weakens on the plains as surface pressure falls and lee trough develop along I-25 late. Min temps will be frosty in spots over the plains, though with switch to more wly flow by morning, readings will likely stay near/above freezing, and with coldest numbers over Prowers/Kiowa counties (which have already had a hard freeze), will hold off on issuing any frost/freeze highlights this time around.