Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front currently in northwestern Kansas will drop south overnight arriving in northern Lea County around midnight and quickly moving through the remainder of the CWA by sunrise. High pressure will quickly settle over the area causing winds to become light overnight. A deep upper low will develop in the western U.
1103 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 High pressure is sliding east across the region this morning, with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s across the area as of 3AM. Arctic high pressure will then move into the area Saturday night, with winds becoming light and variable overnight.
For today, we will be in the warm sector and there should be some adiabatic compressional warming ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The northerly winds will decrease in magnitude throughout the day as high pressure builds in.
320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 SHARP COLD FRONT AT 21Z HAD ALREADY DESCENDED THE PALMER DIVIDE IN EASTERN CO AND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MID EVENING ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
458 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BACK EDGE OF SNOW MOVING QUICKLY EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 19Z WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
252 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST AND HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER WEST AND FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL. TOO HESITANT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE WARMER FORECAST SO USED A BLEND OF NEW GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WY THIS AFTN. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS UPPER TROF PASSES OVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH N NM THIS AFTN SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS MORE OUT OF THE N. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE S AND SWWD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 45 KT NEAR THE TX BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AFFECTED BY WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAK SFC RIDGING PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION.
403 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE 20S IN MUCH OF NE MN TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO MN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD CORE WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW NW FLOW ACROSS WARM LAKE SUPERIOR.
SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCREASE SAT MORNING AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS A COASTAL TROF DVLPS AHD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS A DAUNTING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WET BULB DOWN CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR SNOW TO MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AND A RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL MONITOR WARMING TREND TO SEE IF TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO ESE BY LATE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE BY 11Z AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
1259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight. Meanwhile low pressure will form over the southern Plains as a mid level system digs ESE from the northern Rockies into the Plains upon strong jet stream energy from west Canada. By 12z Sat, the upper trof will extend south from the Upper Midwest with low pressure near KSTL.
238 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
315 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 6Z TONIGHT. AND SHIFT NE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT PULLING THROUGH CENTRAL KY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THEN PICKING UP IN INTENSITY JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT RH LEVELS IN THE LOW 20 PERCENT TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. BEFORE BEST MOISTURE PULLS IN JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER SNOW PACK AREAS.
SNOW WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.
321 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN. A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THOUGH AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
238 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS AND TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR REGION. IN THE PROCESS IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KS. WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NE TO THE CO-WY BORDER SOUTH OF CHEYENNE. 6HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATED GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE PROGGING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN SET OVER THE ROCKIES IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. REPLACING THIS AREA OF PRECIP DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OUT MORE OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
AS OF 2 PM EDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND HELP PUSH PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA. COLDER AIR ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST SOUTHERLY BL FLOW BEGINS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM -16C TO NEAR -20C.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT.
THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH MIDDLE TN FROM 05Z AT CKV TO 12Z AT CSV.
Another low pressure system will move into the region by the middle of the week bringing cooler temperatures and continuing the threat of showers or thunderstorms into the end of the week. The atmosphere further to the north is a little drier and a little more capped as ridging builds into far northern California, so development further north will likely be much more isolated if something manages to pop. Another warm day is on tap for much of the interior of NorCal on Monday as the Rex Block moves overhead in response to the approach of a stronger upstream trough.
327 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE CALDWELL AND BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AT 3 PM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW PINNED UP AGAINST THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT DENDRITIC LAYERS WILL BE DRYING OUT AND ASCENT SHIFTING EAST AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE. A WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE PUSH THIS LOW OUT OF THE REGION. A RESULT OF THE CURRENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IN THE CORTEZ REGION. IN THE NW FLOW LEFT IN THE LOW'S WAKE.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH SAGS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
UPPER LOW CONTINUED ITS SLOW TREK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. WITH ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS PROCESS WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
Today - Tonight: Today's weather will be governed by the transition of an upper level closed low to an open wave. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the closed upper low has now shifted east into west central KS early this morning.
A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
1120 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015 STRONG UPPER TROF IS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ND TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE OHIO RIVER TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF IN AS MANY DAYS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
Rain showers continue to blossom across the CWA as low pressure moves to the south of the region with coverage approaching 100 percent from central Missouri to central Illinois. More scattered activity is expected this afternoon as the upper level low over western KS opens up and shifts eastward to near the KS MO border by 00Z Monday. The models depict upper level divergence over our forecast area ahead of the upper level trough. Some of the high resolution explicit models depict a narrow line of convection shifting eastward through our forecast area this afternoon. With more cloud cover and precipitation today the highs will not be quite as warm as yesterday, but will still be slightly above normal.
DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AL PULLS AWAY AND A LARGER SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH) APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER. 18Z SOUNDINGS AT LZK/SHV/JAN INDICATE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) IS ADVECTING EAST IN ADVANCE OF SAID TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. LENDING A HIGH AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A GLANCE BACK TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (A SOURCE OF CONSOLIDATED LIFT) REVEALS VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
SOME DRY AIR WORKING AROUND THE LOW AND ERODING SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY BRING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL BRIEFLY. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL GET A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE 500MB VORT MAX AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS TO THE EAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. THE DEEPENING NATURE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. FIRE WEATHER AND FROST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW LEADS TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
411 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 Issued am 410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 Big upper level trough is finally swinging through the area, bringing with it enough to ascent to kick off another round (and likely final round) of precipitation across the area. According to water vapor imagery the axis of the low still sits across central and eastern Kansas, so the bulk of the lift is working its way through the area at this time. By the late part of the week into the weekend, a mid level trough will make its way into the plains and use the available moisture to bring more widespread rains.
PROGRESSION OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CO/KS BORDER WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. BRINGING MORE TROUGH-LIKE SYSTEM THROUGH IOWA. THE WELL ADVERTISED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.
218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the central U. A cold front will continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds behind it. Will continue to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
High pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies these next few days resulting in a pleasant warming and drying trend.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE OK/E TX ARE SPREADING EWD AS LOW LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS 19/21Z. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 20/06Z AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 553 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ Stratus with IFR/MVFR ceiling south of a San Angelo to Brady line at 11Z will dissipate mid morning, as dry northwest winds of 10-15 KTS develop behind a Pacific cold front. /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/ (Today and tonight) Cold front will be moving in mid to late morning.
351 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. A BIT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER START TO THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION.
Warm front is lifting north through Kentucky this afternoon, with the transition underway from the steady rain that we had this morning to a more convective regime. Will remain quite unsettled overnight into Monday as a series of disturbances will swing through a broad full-latitude trof. Cold front swings through during the day, with POPs tapering quickly behind it. Monday night appears dry with temps actually slightly below normal as a much cooler and drier air mass spills in.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE N AND NE. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ON MONDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.
656 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
413 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD OPENED INTO A WAVE FROM PREVIOUSLY CLOSED LOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PHASE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK BUT A LARGE AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER MID WEST WITH A RATHER BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN STATES.
MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT A FEW COULD STREAM OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO THE BASINS. MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRY TO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BASE OF 500MB TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. SO THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (ALTHOUGH THUNDER NOT EXPECTED). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY, SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY FROM DODGE CITY NORTH AND WEST BY MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO NW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID- SECTION OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT UP WITH THE LONG- WAVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES/JETS HAVE EJECTED FROM THIS TROUGH. MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW PULLS IN A WEAK IMPULSE.
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHURN EASTWARD WHILE THE DEEP TROUGH RIDING THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO NORTHWEST PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. AFTER LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PROPAGATES INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN DEKALB COUNTY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. A DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT A SECOND BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST.
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DELAY CONVECTION A FEW MORE HOURS.