Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ON LOS ANGELES THIS MORNING BUT COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST FLOW FROM THE LOW. AREAS NORTH OF THE AXIS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BUILDING INLAND WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE FLOW SO THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL BE GOING TODAY.
240 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST THIS FOG COULD ROLL BACK INLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE IN NE MANITOBA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN. AND THE LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE FROM THE SW HUDSON BAY AREA TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MORNING LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
418 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AND A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN COAST. THE HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE ROOF- ARW/NMM/HOP AND HRRR ALL INDICATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND 11Z.
WITH MILD LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CRUISES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL TURN AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELD.
1009 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday mainly over the lower Idaho Panhandle. Dry and much warmer weather is expected through the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.
PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE FORECAST MAX TEMPS DUE TO RATE OF DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEXT AROUND OF PCPN.
232 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO NOW BE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MODELS SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. ONE LAST WEAK IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PERHAPS SQUEEZING OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MAINLY SE GA/EXTREME SE FL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOW TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60D INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NE. AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
The upper-level ridge will maintain a stranglehold on rain chances today, with nil PoPs in the forecast through tonight.
WHILE DRAGGING A SHALLOW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO NW LOWER. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: WHILE THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE HEADING OUT OF THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITHIN H8 TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER LAKESHORES.
433 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015 This morning there is an upper ridge centered over Texas with a cut off low over Southern California. As this low rolls east it will displace the ridge southward to South Texas/Northern Mexico but will not be strong enough to completely dislodge it. As the low moves down the east side of the ridge the center of the ridge will shift westward. Without the ridge becoming entrenched over the area W TX and SE NM should be able to avoid the hottest wx. The upper ridge has not been strong enough to squash convection. The last few days have had good coverage of afternoon storms across the higher elevations from the Big Bend up to Artesia.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA COURTESY OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES. THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1 TO 1. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. EXPECT SOME DRYING THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES FROM IDAHO. THIS SAME LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP SOME CLOUDS INTO EASTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
450 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS MORNING AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SWINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. INITIAL WAVE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WE PRIME THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CELLS BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
606 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH MORE SUN.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN FASTER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. DIVERGING SOLUTIONS BETWEEN CLOUDY AND COOLER ECMWF AFTER WED. THIS IS DUE TO A MAJOR TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PACFIC NORTHWEST ON WED/WED NIGHT/THU. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT LINK UP WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES UTAH.
Through mid morning, the low level jet will veer and while some flow up and over the outflow may provide lift for additional showers and storms, expect a general decrease in coverage through mid morning. Expect additional convective complexes to run the edge of the ridge on Saturday into Saturday night.
612 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
402 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WITH SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND EXITING WAVE AND CLOUD COVER/COOLER TEMPS LIMITING INSTABILITY IN MANY AREAS. ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND WAA EXPECTED.
BUT THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY OUT WEST AT KDRT GIVEN DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
/ISSUED 134 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over Texas through the weekend. These areas will be furthest away from the center of the ridge closest to a surface lee trough.
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 901 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SERN US WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL PUT THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW BY FRIDAY.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER).
307 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
414 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 RIDGING AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN CALI AND NEVADA. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS SLOWLY CROSSED THE SOUTHEASTERN US BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN AS ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW BREAKS OFF AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST. THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. REPLACING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH TROUGHING.
PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER SUGGESTS A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST IN THE BUILDING RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
WITH THE UPPER TROF NEARLY OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON SATURDAY.
359 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015/ SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. WITH LACK OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AM NOT EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO SET UP TOMORROW AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ONLY 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS NOTED WERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE A WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
322 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
142 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BUT DIDN'T WANT TO SIDE COMPLETELY WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SE OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND EXITS BY AROUND 12Z SAT.
326 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
347 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING DOWN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN LOW AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN BACKED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WITHIN THE THETA-E RIDGE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE DIRECTED BY STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STAY DRY TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MAXES. SAT: APPEARS THAT MAIN FRONT WILL DRIFT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
405 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015 This morning there is an upper ridge centered over Texas with a cut off low over Southern California. As this low rolls east it will displace the ridge southward to South Texas/Northern Mexico but will not be strong enough to completely dislodge it. As the low moves down the east side of the ridge the center of the ridge will shift westward. Without the ridge becoming entrenched over the area W TX and SE NM should be able to avoid the hottest wx. The upper ridge has not been strong enough to squash convection. The last few days have had good coverage of afternoon storms across the higher elevations from the Big Bend up to Artesia.
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HURRICANE BLANCA /SLOWLY PUSHING NNWRD ACROSS EPAC/ WILL AID IN MAINTAINING H5 RIDGE OVER TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS PROG TO SLIDE SW ALONG THE TX COAST AROUND THE RIDGE CENTER TODAY WHICH. RIDGE CENTER IS THEN PROG TO DRIFT CLOSER TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AT H85 SHIFTING WEST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN THERMAL PROFILE.
WHILE A RIDGE-RIDING MCV ACRS FAR NORTHEASTERN KS WAS LOOKING TO ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS MO. THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MO RVR VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN HEATING OF THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY VORT DROPPING DOWN ACRS THE REGION TO LEE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GRT LKS RIDGE LOBE TO TAKE OVER FOR DRYING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH E/SE FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
250 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH MORE SUN.
THIS COULD LIFT A WARM FRONT PART WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FCST USES A BLEND OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH PRODUCES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH BUT CARRY A PORTION OF THE EXPECTED TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FORCE A WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
300 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MCS SHOULD ENCOUNTER DIFFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST OVERTOP UPPER RIDGE. WARRANTING SPC ISSUED MARGINAL RISK AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY WARMER AND WETTER (HUMIDITY) CONDITIONS.
SOUNDINGS TODAY ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND WARMING 700MB TEMPERATURES. THE LOW THEN PROCEEDS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
1156 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FRIDAY-SATURDAY: THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
311 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THEN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
Mostly to partly sunny skies prevailed across the lower Ohio Valley as of mid afternoon thanks to high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft. After several days under the influence of a stubborn closed upper low, that feature has now moved over to the SC coast. With the abundant sunshine, readings were able to reach near seasonal levels, or into the low 80s. Otherwise, look for lows to be in the low/mid 60s with light and variable winds. Temperatures will top out right around or in the low/mid 80s and lows Friday night will mainly be in the mid 60s.
244 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
This is where the best potential for additional development later today and where the highest rain chances are this afternoon.
229 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REMNANTS OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA. WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OR POSSIBLY EVEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
High pressure should beuild into the region from the Great Lakes in the wake of whatever storms we see later this afternoon/evening. Temperatures should be a little cooler for highs than today, with readings Friday ranging from 82-86 and Saturday, from 79-85.
ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN USA. WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS A RED FLAG.
137 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH 300-850H MUCAPE AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE FLINT HILLS FROM KTOP-KEMP SOUTH TO HOWARD AND SEDAN. AS AFTER 09-10Z MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO WANE AND WRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX RUNS INTO SOME WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US SHEARING OUT AND MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUE/WED.
531 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH MORE SUN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
342 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ALL BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BUT WITH WEAK RIDGE RIDERS COMING THROUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
323 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING INLAND COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
646 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIRCULATION AROUND A BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS SW IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS OVER SW ID AND FAR SE OREGON. FOR SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PAC NW SUPPRESSES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE NE CORRIDOR WHERE AN IMPULSE OR SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH IS FOCUSING A NARROW BAND OF BACKWASH CLOUDINESS FROM NRN NV INTO THE BURNEY/LASSEN NP AREA SWWD INTO OUR CWA.
WE WILL BEGIN TO PULL DRIER AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER OUR REGION AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY WILL TURN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
641 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
608 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THE VIEW FROM SPACE WE CAN SEE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NAGGING THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE NAGGING TROUGH FROM ABOVE WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A DEEP LATITUDINAL UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THE VENTILATIONALOFT WILL MOVE OUT AS WELL.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COOLER MID LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH SAT AS A PAIR OF STRONG 500 MB TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE U.