Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We remain in a pattern with a general weakness aloft due to ridging in a place both to our east and west. To the north, an upper level trough will slide across the Plains as an inverted trough feature develops to our southwest. However, upper ridging building into the region will help trim rain chances back a bit.
1057 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The upper high ridge across the Southwestern U. Tonight, should start to see the upper ridge break down, with a weak short wave trough starting to dig across the Rockies.
A persistent upr lvl trof axis was aligned fm NE to SW acrs the FA. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm again today, mainly in the vcnty of the upr trof/shear axis. rdg wl rebuild, allowing an upper trof to drop into the Plains States.
A high pressure system off the Atlantic coast shows little signs of moving anytime soon.
333 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern. Surface and upper level ridge extending west from offshore SC. Perhaps weak surface convergence associated with Piedmont trough may provide some lift. CAM models suggest widely scattered convection mainly focused in the western Midlands and CSRA on periphery of ridge. Persistence for overnight minimum temps in the low to mid 70s. Similar pattern will persist through the end of the week with a seasonably hot airmass in place and a ridge of high pressure over the area, centered just offshore.
So expect warmer conditions today with highs near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. At this time, highs will range from the low 80s far north to the low 90s along and south of I-70. In the meantime, deepening upper level trough over the Northern Plains will slide into the Great Lakes region by Thursday night.
Warmer temperatures for the weekend. Radar this afternoon shows showers and thunderstorms developing along a cold front from the Minnesota Arrowhead southwestward along I-35 to Hinckley. Next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday evening as an upper level trough moves into the region bringing substantial PVA to support widespread rain over the southern third of the CWA from Burnett County eastward Price County with amounts of around a half inch. High pressure will build Thursday afternoon. As the high pressure moves eastward winds will switch around to the south giving a brief break from the smoke.
Strong/Severe storms expected Wednesday, coming in 2 waves, with the second harboring the higher severe threat. Associated cold front looks to bisect the forecast area from northeast-southwest around 00z with other outflows from the early day storms likely wavering across the area (another potential storm focus). A few lingering showers and storms will be possible Thursday as the upper level trough moves overhead.
Temperatures tonight will remain nearly steady or dip another degree or two into the lower 70s inland, with mid 70s along the coast. As the base of the upper trough north of the area continues to lift north-northeastward and dissipate into Wednesday, a west-east orientated upper ridge sets up over the region and remains through Thursday afternoon. Surface dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s each day thanks to a light southerly wind flow. When combined with mostly sunny skies resulting in high temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day (upper 80s at the coast), look for heat indices to reach between 98 and 105 degrees.
Weakening high pressure will allow for slightly less hot conditions while moisture returns to the area. This moisture will bring the threat of thunderstorms to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek, with the highest chances across central and southern Utah.
Upper flow over the central Plains has taken a modest northwest character with an upper high to the southwest and stronger westerlies across the northern states. Decent lee cyclogenesis leading to mainly southerly winds and a warmer day for most locations with mid 90s reached in central Kansas. Continued cyclogenesis tonight leads to an increasing low-level jet and a warmer night under increasing cirrus. Temps should reach the lower 90s to near 100 though deep mixing allows RH values to drop into the middle 20s to middle 40s and heat indices near to not far above these values. Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front sinks south through the area.
A ridge of high pressure will briefly build over the Northern Rockies today with more hot and dry conditions.
1002 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Latest short term model consensus suggests that a weakening mid- level trough will progress slowly eastward across the TN Valley overnight. As the upper-level trough moves off to the northeast, it leaves behind a stationary boundary that appears to drape right across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee.
Southerly winds will increase through the day as low pressure develops in western Kansas. Models are generally showing storm clusters developing across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri by late Thursday afternoon along the cold front, potentially moving into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks region Thursday evening and night.
333 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 We are finally looking at a rain-free forecast over much of the forecast area for the next couple of days as the pesky mid/upper level low that has plagued the region for days finally has moved east and weakened.
The mid-level trough is still overhead which leads to the continued low chances in our southeast CWA. The mean upper air pattern will slowly begin to change from a west- northwest flow aloft, to more of a northerly flow as a large trough develops over the eastern half of the CONUS. Over the Rockies, and extending into southern Canada, an anomalous ridge will continue to build. There are differences in the mean ridge and associated weak disturbance embedded in the upper ridge building across the Northern Plains from the GFS/EC. Either way, higher thickness values and associated thermal profile in the boundary layer suggest that the highest temperatures will occur north and west of MPX CWA.
The upper level high pressure system west of NM will weaken through the short term as an upper level trough crosses the northern and central Rockies and a disturbance rotates around the northern periphery of the upper level ridge and southeastward across NM. The trough will draw richer moisture over the state from AZ with PWATs varying from 1-1.
Hennig (Today through Thursday afternoon) West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will remain caught between upper level high pressure systems over the southeastern U.
Weakening high pressure will allow for slightly less hot conditions while moisture returns to the area. This moisture will bring the threat of thunderstorms to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming through late this week, with the highest chances across central and southern Utah.
With the lower instability present earlier this day and likely linear mode hail would be less likely. Beyond thunderstorms expect a cooler day today under cloudier skies associated with thunderstorms. The highest thunder chances should be confined to KRWF and KMKT.
Cold front is ever so slowly making its way southeast and is forecast to take its time. We will start out Thursday with some convection possible in our southeast CWA Thursday morning as the cold front is slow to clear, but severe parameters indicate that the severe threat will be less than what it looks like this evening.
630 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge continues it's firm hold over the Desert Southwest with the eastern edge still over west Texas.
543 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Early morning: Sent an update to account for the patchy mist/fog that had begun to fill the lower elevations areas and river valley, especially north of the clearing cloud bank. The strong ridge of high pressure from the desert southwest will build even more in strength and become established further north and northeast than usual. The ridge axis and center of this ridge will stretch from Saskatchewan in the north, through Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado in the south. Given the unusual strength of this ridge and it's prolonged expected impacts, I chose to manually increase the overnight low temperature forecasts for the period of concern to highlight the likelihood of poor overnight temperature recovery.
Temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s this afternoon with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Expect similar conditions again on Thursday as weak upper level ridging remains in place. The weather pattern will become unsettled again this weekend as a trough digs into the Mississippi Valley.
735 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. Lows generally in the lower 70s.
We gradually warm again thereafter as high pressure ridging works in the region. There should be a lull in activity for several hours, but then expect thunderstorms to develop along a warm front draped across northeast Nebraska, and cold front that will extend into central Nebraska.
As expected just a couple of upper 60s this morning with most readings in the lower 70s. Little change into thursday, but the warming trend will continue on the low end with highs likely to stabilize in the low to mid 90s.
This activity will slowly rotate around the base of an upper level low located over the south central. Currently, mid level S/WV trough moving slowly east across the Northern High Plains region, bringing showers and thunderstorms mainly across eastern Montana and western and central South Dakota.
/issued 225 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure remains parked off the southeastern US coast with low pressure coming off the front range of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak mid-level weakness in the ridge sits along the lower Texas coast today before the ridge strengthens slightly on Thursday.
921 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridging across northern Florida will keep a predominant easterly wind flow across the peninsula today. Similiar to previous days, storms will develop over the southeast coast of Florida and inland areas and traverse northwestward through the day with the highest coverage near the coast by mid-afternoon and continuing through early evening. High pressure ridging over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep easterly winds around 10-15 knots over the gulf waters through the week and into the weekend.
/issued 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis is positioned just north of Florida, and is forecast to hold through the rest of the week, with generally easterly flow continuing. This pattern will favor numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with convection starting to develop over the interior during the early afternoon and building towards the west coast through the late afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances generally along and west of Interstate 75 with the sea breeze collision.
After a period dominated by an upper level ridge with higher temperatures, a zonal pattern brings mild conditions back to the CWA. Cooler temperatures for the interior as well as the coast bring a reprieve from the record setting heat wave which dominated the Pacific NW. Fires to the east and north could bring haze to the region today before onshore winds and cooler air aloft, clear them out in the late afternoon. Cooler temperatures in the morning may support less dewpoint/temperature-spread, which may be the trend for the next few days. Being upstream from an upper level low, significant ridging is probable to set up over the Rocky Mountains and seasonal temperatures will return to normal for the CWA late in the week. High pressure over the central part of the country is expected to slowly retrograde and approach the west coast.
The lull in the active pattern has finally arrived with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. The high pressure is centered over the southeast U. , so strong southwesterly flow on the backside will advect much warmer air into central Indiana. In addition, the high dew points are not going anywhere, so heat index values will reach the 90s both today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, overnight lows tonight will hold steady in the low 70s with clear skies. However, that benign pattern will be short-lived as the next upper trough quickly enters the region on Thursday afternoon. as a slow-moving upper level short wave and accompanying cold front cross the Mid-West from west to east.
Temperatures will continue to warm rapidly this morning, topping out in the lower 90s F for most by afternoon. This feature is progged to weaken today as mid level ridging begins to strengthen over our region from the east. Early morning surface analysis had a >1022mb ridge axis from the east nearly along I-20. Provided this early convection across our northeast becomes more isolated this morning and allows decent insolation, more of our CWA will see afternoon highs top out in the lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. Morning lows will be in the lower 70s at most locations which is also normal for this time of the year.
524 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Cold front lays along a line from southern Nebraska to Cheyenne to Rawlins and finally to Evanston this morning. Upper air pattern shows us with a trough of low pressure over Montana and northern Wyoming with upper area of high pressure over Arizona and southern California. Upper ridge builds back over western Wyoming Thursday as surface boundary begins to shifts northeast again.
835 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern. Surface and upper level ridge extending west from offshore SC. Perhaps weak surface convergence associated with Piedmont trough may provide some lift. CAM models suggest widely scattered convection mainly focused in the western Midlands and CSRA on periphery of ridge. Persistence for overnight minimum temps in the low to mid 70s. Similar pattern will persist through the end of the week with a seasonably hot airmass in place and a ridge of high pressure over the area, centered just offshore.
With the lower instability present earlier this day and likely linear mode hail would be less likely. Beyond thunderstorms expect a cooler day today under cloudier skies associated with thunderstorms.
Upper level trough axis is over the eastern Great Lakes and back through our area early this morning. The trough will lift into the northeast today, but there will still be enough low level moisture and instability to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Some widely scattered showers have developed early this morning with the trough axis crossing the area. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Thursday will be a brief break from the overall wet pattern the region has seen out ahead of the next trough that will be approaching from the NW.
519 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central NE, with frontal boundary extending across southern NE to far southern WY. As the upper trough moves east-southeast across the northern Plains today, isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of the area through at least the midday hours.
The strong ridge of high pressure from the desert southwest will build even more in strength and become established further north and northeast than usual. The ridge axis and center of this ridge will stretch from Saskatchewan in the north, through Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado in the south. Given the unusual strength of this ridge and it's prolonged expected impacts, I chose to manually increase the overnight low temperature forecasts for the period of concern to highlight the likelihood of poor overnight temperature recovery.
We are finally looking at a rain-free forecast over much of the forecast area for the next couple of days as the pesky mid/upper level low that has plagued the region for days finally has moved east and weakened.
557 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern. Surface and upper level ridge extending west from offshore SC. Perhaps weak surface convergence associated with Piedmont trough may provide some lift. CAM models suggest widely scattered convection mainly focused in the western Midlands and CSRA on periphery of ridge. Persistence for overnight minimum temps in the low to mid 70s. Similar pattern will persist through the end of the week with a seasonably hot airmass in place and a ridge of high pressure over the area, centered just offshore.
747 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Trough axis still sliding across southeast Montana this morning. An upper trough was working across eastern Montana early this morning. Showers were lingering with the trough over parts of the north and east. This activity will lingering over eastern zones today as cyclonic flow around the trough induces lift. Upper ridging starts to build back in tonight. Prominent upper ridging will be in place the entire time, allowing for very above normal temperatures.
321 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central NE, with frontal boundary extending across southern NE to far southern WY. As the upper trough moves east-southeast across the northern Plains today, isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of the area through at least the midday hours.
Ahead of this feature is another arcing boundary that s approaching the lower Keys but has no noticeable precipitation yet. Expanding our scope we can see that there is a subtle surface inverted trough located along the eastern shoreline of the Florida Peninsula. In the low to mid levels we remain on the southwestern of a subtropical ridge just off the Eastern Seaboard. In fact the BYX VWP shows a slight veering profile as winds go from east southeast to southeast direction through the lowest three to four thousand feet. Breezes will become more easterly through the afternoon as subtropical ridging builds in from the northeast and east. This ridge will hold firm through the end of the week maintaining generally east to southeast moderate breezes with occasional periods of fresh breezes, mainly over the Straits of Florida.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 71 91 72 90 / 30 20 30 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 91 71 92 / 20 20 20 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 69 90 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 65 89 67 90 / 20 20 30 0 40.
Lows should be a tad warmer than last night, in the upper 60s to around 70 by sunrise Thursday.
107 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Previous forecast as of 300 AM Wednesday: Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. Lows generally in the lower 70s.
Tomorrow looks to be a rinse and repeat of today as an upper level ridge remains situated over the southeastern CONUS. However, this ridge begins creeping slightly east as an upper level trough starts to dig across the north central CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, an east to west oriented ridge continues to extend over the forecast area. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 70s inland with mid to upper 80s at the beaches.
Additional strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front/boundary across northern portions of Wisconsin. Overnight low are expected to be in the 50s north-central to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. This will lead to mainly precipitation-free conditions along with steadily warming temperatures as an upper- level ridge begins to build across the central CONUS.
Expect highs to top out in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon with southerly winds gusting from 20-30 miles per hour.
High pressure will slowly build across the region through the remainder of the week bringing a slight warming trend. In its wake skies have mostly cleared across much of southern Utah this morning, where surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s and satellite-derived PW values in excess of 1 inch remain across the lower elevations. Anticipate convection will initiate across the higher terrain by early afternoon, and forecast storm motions propagate this activity down-drainage through the Capitol Reef, Glen Canyon, and Grand Staircase regions. This will yield a favorable setup for flash flooding across these areas this afternoon and evening, and have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the lower elevations of southern Utah roughly along and east of Highway 89.
The stronger storms, which could contain a tornado may be setting up /just/ east of our coverage area where a triple point exists near the cold and warm front interface, but thought we should have a handful of counties in the watch just in case. After midnight, we'll still see elevated storms north of the cold front, which eventually makes progress southward through the region.
A cold front associated with the northern wave was located from northwest Kansas into north-central Iowa at 18z with elevated showers and storms just northwest of the local area in an area of mid-level WAA. The cold front makes steady southeast progress from north-central into southeast Kansas Thursday into Thursday night.
With the jet axis and associated primary progressive pattern well north of the area, our weather will continue to be dominated by deep layer ridging. Some scattered patchy fog is possible in the southeast tonight as lows fall into the lower 70s F under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies before rising into the lower 90s F Thursday with sky conditions ranging from partly cloudy in most locations to mostly cloudy near showers and storms.
245 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 An upper trough was exiting southeast Montana today taking any precipitation with it, so look for mostly clear and dry conditions tonight.
1127 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Previous forecast as of 300 AM Wednesday: Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. Lows generally in the lower 70s.
Meanwhile across the southern half of the county upper level high pressure with relatively weak flow was noted. Surface obs showed an area of low pressure centered over northwestern KS with an inverted trough extending north. Good moisture advection and lift from the low level jet has enabled an MCS to develop over central NEB. Cloud cover and periods of rain should keep temperatures cooler and highs are forecast to be in the lower and middle 80s.