Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure across southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, and the northwest Gulf will move eastward over the area through noon Monday and then east of the area in the afternoon and overnight. The current hourly temperature trend tonight remains on track, with chilly low temps dipping into the lower to mid 30s north of I-10 and in the upper 30s to lower 40s south of I-10. Highs Monday will be a touch warmer than Sunday, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
/issued 909 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021/ An upper level trof is moving through the Mid-South this evening. Showers should taper off around midnight as the upper trof moves east. A weak area of high pressure will move toward the region tonight keeping things dry tonight. High pressure will remain over the region on Monday bringing one more day of dry weather. A cold front will move into Arkansas Monday night.
We are not completely out of the woods this morning as there is a narrow band of moisture on the back side of the upper trough along the WI/MN border. Expect an uptick in mostly flurries (some minor visibility reductions may briefly occur) after daybreak which will spread to the lakefront mid to late morning as the back edge of the trough axis moves through. A separate disturbance will also miss our area to the north but will send a subtle/reinforcing cold front into the lower Great Lakes.
220 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 As the weekend trof departs, it might still squeeze out a few flurries, particularly in our far northeast this morning, otherwise, we'll have a temporary improvement in skies as weak high pressure fills the wake of the departed trof. Meanwhile, our next developing system will drop down out of the High Plains, and move across Missouri today, lifting a warm front into/across the area. The low races east across the Lower Ohio River tonight, dragging its cold front with it, as it becomes enveloped in the broader long wave trof. It'll take the bulk of the night to reach freezing air temps even up there, so it should be a little to no impact event.
1230 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Upper trough digs into the area tonight with snow showers expected into early Monday.
We continue to experience a few areas of light snow/flurries courtesy of the 500mb trough axis overhead. This activity has mostly be confined to the Evansville Tri-state area, but a secondary area of channeled vorticity on the back side of the trough axis looks to spread additional light snow into areas further southwest.
1159 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Valid from 06Z Mon Jan 18th - 12Z Tues Jan 19th High pressure across the Gulf coast will keep winds light and variable and skies clear through the overnight hours. /issued 854 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021/ No significant updates to the forecast overnight with high pressure settled over the Northern Gulf Coast. Light northerly winds will be in place through the overnight hours, reinforcing the cooler, drier Plains air mass.
A UL trof will move across the state today. A sfc front will be ushered in association with this trof. The combination of the slightly warmer temperatures, slightly lower RH's, and breezy winds will lead to limited to perhaps elevated fire weather conditions across the FA today. We will see a smattering of mid to high level clouds today as the mentioned UL trof pushes through. High pressure will build in from the north.
The temperature profiles over the higher elevations are somewhat better than the lower elevations, meaning the focus for higher snowfall accumulations would be on the ridge tops. Trough axis will pick up speed this morning and quickly move toward eastern PA. Modest cold air advection, and a westerly wind, will necessitate PoPs over the ridges and the northern most portion of the forecast area.
1001 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 (This evening through Monday) Gusty northwest winds will diminish quickly this evening and will then shift back to the southwest overnight ahead of next weak cold front. Otherwise, overnight will be cool with periods of some mid/high clouds, but a bit less than last night, so temps are expected to be a few degrees cooler. Moisture will lift northward ahead of the cold front and by late in the day tomorrow we may see an increase in lower clouds across parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma. No precip is expected along the front during the day tomorrow and temperatures will be may actually be a few degrees warmer than today.
The main trough axis, which brought the areas of snow overnight, will pick up speed this morning and quickly move over eastern PA. Modest cold air advection, and a westerly wind, will keep in the risk for scattered snow showers and flurries, with the highest PoPs over the ridges and the northern most portion of the forecast area.
/issued 720 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021/ Abundant clouds and a few sprinkles moving across the region this evening ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will be moving southward across the area overnight.
This has caused temperatures to quickly dive down, with some areas in the 40s and most in the low 30s. Lingering pressure gradient from departing low from the NE and additional low pressure system arriving in the Great Lakes will lead to breezy conditions out of the west once again tomorrow. Likely keep a bit of boundary layer wind overnight which should limit radiational cooling, although lows will still drop to around freezing.
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 An upper low that passed by to our south overnight is slowly retreating towards the Ohio Valley this afternoon. On a smaller scale, some weak low level frontogenesis bands have continued to produce light snow/flurries and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle at times across portions of southwest and west-central WI since this morning. Forecast soundings generally show low level saturation extending deep enough into the snow-growth zone (or at least a seeder-feeder setup in place) to support mainly light snow chances, but can't rule out a lack of ice in the clouds at times that could produce some patchy freezing drizzle.
Mostly light winds thru 12Z-15Z/Mon then sw-nw winds ahead of a wind shift assocd with cold front arriving at HOB around 21Z and MAF 23Z.
1014 PM MST Sun Jan 17 2021 20z surface analysis had low over east central AB with trough into western NE. Trailing cold front will sweep across MT through the CWA tonight. 5-2" on the plains of western SD, 1-4" for northeast WY with the highest totals near the MT/SD borders. Isallobaric forcing looks to come in two batches, the first of which will arrive tonight with gusty northwest winds at times behind cold front.
(Today and tonight) Southwest winds will pick up mid to late morning as a lee trough develops along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 60s the Big Country and lower 70s south. A cold front will move into the Big Country late afternoon after 4 PM and move through the rest of West Central Texas by midnight.
May have patchy freezing fog develop in the Columbia basin and valleys late. Upper ridge builds offshore with a cool dry northerly flow aloft over the region Mon and Tue. Models still have some differences with the position of the upper low for late Thu into Fri. With the low center tracking along the Oregon coast into northern California it appears there will be a chance for light rain and snow over the forecast area.
An upper level trough will depart the area this morning, although there may be just enough lingering moisture to promote a few flurries through the course of the day.
/Tonight/ The evening water vapor imagery indicates the apex of the upper trough is now traversing the Lower MS Valley this evening, with the accompanying AC cigs having quickly exited the region early this evening into Srn MS/AL. Meanwhile, the evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from Cntrl TX into WCntrl LA this evening, which will shift SE into S LA through daybreak Monday.
Breezy southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front today will usher warmer air into the area, though cloud cover will have slight dampening effect across our northeastern CWA.
322 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 An upper level trough and weak surface boundary dropping south through the region today will produce morning snow showers across central and southern portions of the forecast area with some light accumulations likely.
In the upper levels, a trough will be over the region today with nearly zonal flow moving in this evening. High pressure will be over the region today and tonight. With clear skies and calm winds tonight, lows will be cold in the lower to mid 30s.
Slippery travel is possible late tonight within lingering snow and with temperatures below freezing on wet pavement. The large scale trough forcing the snow across the area digs to the southeastern CONUS and the weakening mid level low pressure system continues to shift to our east. However, with the cooler air coming in, a relatively thick DGZ and residence time of the column in that DGZ along with some low level theta-e lapse rate instability and wind convergence, feel there could be some stronger lake effect bands possible. The higher totals near the lake includes totals as a result of the pivot point of the low, but also because of some of the lake enhancement there and potentially cooler pavement temps. Highs on Monday rise back to the low 30s. Moving forward, a southeast high pressure system and southwest cutoff low takes hold.
244 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Upper trough exits the area today with lingering light snow showers expected.
As an upper level trough swings through the region, bringing steep lapse rates, scattered snow showers will continue through the overnight hours. The trough axis is expected to be east of the area around 12Z, and after that time we should see decreasing coverage of showers as midlevel warming/drying and height rises ensue.
Morning lows will be in the lower 30s. Today and Tonight: Drier and cooler returns through tonight. Daytime highs remain slightly below normal, with readings in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight fall back down to around freezing.
High pressure at surface stretches across the gulf coast this morning while centered south of Louisiana. With the high over the region and a dry NW flow aloft, dry and mild conditions are expected today and tonight. A weak short wave and associated cold front will drop out of the northern plains today and into Tuesday. This will push a cold front into the East TX Lakes and Cen LA by Tuesday afternoon.
/Today through Tuesday Night/ Sly flow at the sfc to return today, as low pressure develops across the Central/Southern Plains ahead of a deepening nrn stream trof. Abundant sunshine and warm air advection regime to allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 60s areawide today. Cold front associated with the deepening nrn stream trof will sharpen/drift swd late this aftn/evening, providing a focus for shwrs to develop late this evening and overnight. For Tuesday night, it does appear that the front may drift just a bit further swd, as the associated upper trof well to our ne pivots further ewd.
06Z surface data has a weak clipper type system centered in northwest South Dakota with high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Through sunrise and the morning hours some weak forcing combined with warmer air aloft will generate some passing flurries mainly north of I-80.
Widespread cloud cover this morning is keeping temperatures slightly warmer than the forecast. Generally good agreement exists in the high resolution ensembles, as well as blended guidance regarding snowfall amounts, with only slight differences in timing.
359 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Forecast concerns in the short term will be the band of light snow and flurries pushing across the region this morning with any light patchy freezing drizzle ahead of it, and if additional light snow reaches the western and southwest part of the forecast area later today and tonight.
Dry, windier, and slightly cooler conditions to start off the work week; however, a a return of snow is likely by the end of the workweek.
At the surface, a weak low is and associated cold front is slowly moving southeast through the northern CWA, centered near Ainsworth. Thus far tonight precip has struggled to reach the ground, with snow only being reported at the higher terrain of the Black Hills and locally only along the Pine Ridge. 5km winds on the order of 30-35kts, and some subtle height falls (~2mb/3hrs) and rises (~3-5mb/3hrs) ahead and behind a reinforcing cold front and confidence is beginning to increase in convective enhancement.
516 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Upper trough over the eastern CONUS with subtle features drifting down out of Canada through Tuesday, with the first of such features overhead, a second just upstream and a third that will dip into the eastern CWA early Tuesday.
534 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Summary: A cold front will continue moving out of the Northland today with lingering snow showers and flurries through the day. The lows associated cold front has been sweeping across the Northland in the overnight hours helping to provide lift for some bands of snowfall. As the day progresses this band of snow and cold front will exit to the east with cold northwesterly flow remaining over the region.
Cold front moves south this morning, leading to northerly winds at all sites by mid-morning.
A cold front has been working through the area and is now near Montgomery and the I-85 corridor. Cool and dry tonight as temperatures will drop back to near or below freezing.
Forecast remains on track with no rain expected and freezing temperatures still expected tonight across interior locations of Hernando, Citrus and Levy Counties, including coastal Levy.
High pressure aloft builds over the region and remains in place much of the first half of the week, though a weak front will clip the area late Tuesday.
407 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Expect a nice day across the Mid South as high pressure rotates through the south. Sunny conditions will persist through the day but expect increasing clouds tonight as a cold front moves through the region late tonight into Tuesday.
Clouds will begin increasing later this aftn and especially overnight, as a cold front approaches. /Today through Tuesday Night/ Sly flow at the sfc to return today, as low pressure develops across the Central/Southern Plains ahead of a deepening nrn stream trof. Abundant sunshine and warm air advection regime to allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 60s areawide today. Cold front associated with the deepening nrn stream trof will sharpen/drift swd late this aftn/evening, providing a focus for shwrs to develop late this evening and overnight. For Tuesday night, it does appear that the front may drift just a bit further swd, as the associated upper trof well to our ne pivots further ewd.
This will help a cold front move south entering northwest Oklahoma late this morning and out of the area early this evening.
As the upper low retrogrades through Utah into S. Definitely a case where higher amounts could occur of the focus along and north of the pseudo-warm front/boundary tightens.
We are not completely out of the woods this morning as there is a narrow band of moisture on the back side of the upper trough along the WI/MN border. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle in the next few hours, but it would be short lived. Expect an uptick in mostly flurries (some minor visibility reductions may briefly occur) after daybreak which will spread to the lakefront mid to late morning as the back edge of the trough axis moves through. A separate disturbance will also miss our area to the north but will send a subtle/reinforcing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. KMD 212 AM CST Tuesday night, a clipper system will swing through the Lower Great Lakes dropping a narrow swath of snow.
The cold front moved through much of the area by midnight, with the associated trough exiting the area between 15Z and 18Z.
636 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 An upper level trough and weak surface boundary dropping south through the region today will produce morning snow showers across central and southern portions of the forecast area with some light accumulations likely. Overall progs for the day show this boundary slowly sagging south of the region by this afternoon leaving in its wake some light snow accumulations of a dusting to 2" in the lower elevations to perhaps 3-4" across the higher summits of Addison and Rutland counties. Highs today fall back to seasonal normals or slightly below north of the front in the low/mid 20s, and continue above normal in the low/mid 30s south.
The rain came in the form of stratiform precipitation generated high in the troposphere above the freezing level. As the frozen hydrometeors fell, they encountered a significant layer of dry, relatively warm air in the lower levels of the troposphere. TLDR: It was a cool and rainy night across the Florida Keys with steady temps in the lower to mid 60s.
Hence, much cooler/below normal temps is expected toward the end of the week, which will include chances for snow as this front settles into the region and impulses ride along it.
401 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Summary: A cold front will continue moving out of the Northland today with lingering snow showers and flurries through the day. The lows associated cold front has been sweeping across the Northland in the overnight hours helping to provide lift for some bands of snowfall. As the day progresses this band of snow and cold front will exit to the east with cold northwesterly flow remaining over the region.
Forecast concerns in the short term will be the band of light snow and flurries pushing across the region this morning with any light patchy freezing drizzle ahead of it, and if additional light snow reaches the western and southwest part of the forecast area later today and tonight.
At the surface, high pressure across southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, and the northwest Gulf will move eastward over the area through noon Monday and then east of the area in the afternoon and overnight.
However, if the skies do clear, combined with light winds, the lows could fall several degrees further and most of the forecast area could fall below zero. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the teens for much of the CWA, except for the southwest where WAA will result in the high temperatures rising into the 20s in the afternoon.
530 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 (Today and tonight) Southwest winds will pick up mid to late morning as a lee trough develops along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 60s the Big Country and lower 70s south. A cold front will move into the Big Country late afternoon after 4 PM and move through the rest of West Central Texas by midnight.
Winds will shift to the NW at area terminals by this afternoon, then veer further to the N/NE as a strong cold front moves into the region, reaching CNM/HOB by 21-22Z, MAF/INK/PEQ around 23-00Z, and FST after 19/00Z. Enjoy it because a cold front arrives late this afternoon that will bring a return of colder temperatures tomorrow with highs dropping as much as 30 degrees from today. Meanwhile an upper level low will develop and drop south becoming stationary off the southwestern California coast.
325 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Upper trough over the eastern CONUS with subtle features drifting down out of Canada through Tuesday, with the first of such features overhead, a second just upstream and a third that will dip into the eastern CWA early Tuesday.
The main trough axis, which brought the areas of snow overnight, will pick up speed this morning and quickly move over eastern PA. Modest cold air advection, and a westerly wind, will keep in the risk for scattered snow showers and flurries, with the highest PoPs over the ridges and the northern most portion of the forecast area. The colder air aloft will remain entrenched over the area, and with a westerly wind flow, orographic influence will allow for snow showers to continue over the ridges.
Mid-upper level trough will swing through the area today and will be accompanied by some mid clouds over southeast GA early today. Went a couple of degrees below MOS and NBM guidance for lows with min temps in the lower 30s common, mainly inland areas. This results in 2-4 hrs of freezing conditions for a few counties in northeast FL.
In the wake of an exiting trough axis, snow showers will remain possible amid weak cold advection aloft but decrease in areal coverage due to increasing subsidence from height rises. Increasing subsidence due to slight pressure height rises in the wake of an exiting trough axis will limit areal coverage of snow showers this afternoon. Enough influence from the upper jet setting up south of the region plus orographic lift due to strengthening westerlies will allow for snow development over northern WV, favoring the higher terrain.
/issued 407 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Expect a nice day across the Mid South as high pressure rotates through the south. Sunny conditions will persist through the day but expect increasing clouds tonight as a cold front moves through the region late tonight into Tuesday.
303 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Cold start this morning, especially across far southeast Oklahoma where temperatures have fallen off into the lower 20s. Decent warm up, however, expected over much of the area today ahead of a cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. Cooler and more seasonable temperatures forecast on Tuesday behind front as boundary stalls over the ArkLaTex region.
Expect a return in some cloud cover near sunset, but the vast majority of the day will feature plentiful sunshine, breezy westerly winds, and afternoon temps topping out in the low 50s. Better moisture will continue to be ushered into the area on Tuesday, and cloud cover will continue to increase ahead of a cold front. This should limit temperatures from rising out of the lower 50s during the afternoon. Expect cloud cover to thin overnight in wake of the cold front, which will allow low temperatures to drop near freezing by the morning hours.
/Issued 303 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Cold start this morning, especially across far southeast Oklahoma where temperatures have fallen off into the lower 20s. Decent warm up, however, expected over much of the area today ahead of a cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. Cooler and more seasonable temperatures forecast on Tuesday behind front as boundary stalls over the ArkLaTex region.
The upstream low level air is warmer than what we had forecast and also has a bit more moisture. Since we're starting a little warmer and still expect some sun, we'll warm today's forecast highs a bit. On Tuesday, the upper low will drop southwestward off the coast of Baja CA. Over CO, a dry and weaker northwesterly flow aloft will be in place, with high pressure at the surface and aloft.
High pressure will slowly build in behind this mornings cold front, which is exiting the area. High pressure should begin to build in as the cold front exits the region, with quiet weather for the day and gradually clearing skies. Winds will turn more onshore by Tuesday allowing temperatures to moderate by a few degrees with highs in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure centered across the FL peninsula and mid-level ridging anchored over the eastern Gulf will work in concert to keep dry and pleasant weather in place for the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will be in the 70s across South Florida for the start of the week and warm to the lower 80s by late week.
Not expecting the flurries to last long, as some mid level drying will occur just ahead of dry cold front expected to move southeast across the area by this afternoon. Cold advection with the northwest flow will lead to cooler temperatures on Tue, mainly back closer to seasonal normals. Ketcham Another dry cold front looks to move south on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well. Metzger A dry cold front will push south across the area for this afternoon hours.