Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of north Mississippi this morning ahead of a cold front which is just south of the Tennessee/Mississippi border. Areas in southwest TN and northern MS have the best chances for seeing rain today, with the highest possibility being in the afternoon hours. The upper level ridge is currently situated over the CO/WY state border and is expected to stay in place over the next few days. The upper level trough that is situated over the eastern portions of the US will strengthen over the weekend, allowing the dry air to stay in place for several days.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) The upper ridge to our west will build more strongly into our area over the next few days, with temperatures trending upwards as a result.
415 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
Temperatures on Friday currently forecast may end up a couple degrees warmer as surface dewpoints drop in the 50s by Friday morning.
Then dry and cooler weather is expected the rest of the night into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s, while tomorrow's highs will be cooler than normal, in the middle to upper 70s. Isolated showers and storms will continue across central and eastern Illinois late this afternoon into early this evening as a weak cold front moves south through the area. Dry and cooler weather is expected the rest of the night into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s, while tomorrow's highs will be cooler than normal, in the middle to upper 70s.
Following some diurnally-driven PoPs mainly S-W of Lubbock, subsidence will deepen this evening and overnight on deep NE flow south of an upper high over CO. High temps today should make strides over yesterday's seasonal values thanks to dewpoints mixing out in the low/mid 50s. The upper high to our north will expand going into the weekend, resulting in temperatures starting to increase.
Lows will fall into the low 70s. Friday: As longwave trough axis digs down through the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, the ridge to NW over Rockies will pivot to the SE but persist. Highs will be a touch warmer near climo in the N in the low 90s while upper 80s in the SE.
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 (Today through Friday) The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Central Rockies/High Plains today through Friday. A mid level impulse and surge of deeper moisture rotates around the Ridge and over our area. Locally heavy downpours are also expected due to the high PWs and possible slow storm motions. "Cooler", slightly below normal high temperatures are expected both days due to increased cloudiness and areas of rain.
/issued 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/ Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of north Mississippi this morning ahead of a cold front which is just south of the Tennessee/Mississippi border. Areas in southwest TN and northern MS have the best chances for seeing rain today, with the highest possibility being in the afternoon hours. The upper level ridge is currently situated over the CO/WY state border and is expected to stay in place over the next few days. The upper level trough that is situated over the eastern portions of the US will strengthen over the weekend, allowing the dry air to stay in place for several days.
136 PM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Water vapor imagery showing an upper ridge extending north over the area from Colorado but a healthy plume of monsoonal moisture is also over the area.
Tonight and Friday High pressure covered the western Great Lakes area, with fair weather cumulus clouds scattered across the region. The northeast push of the precipitation will be slowed by lingering high pressure and associated dry air.
High pressure is building behind the front this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will be advected into the region behind the Friday morning front.
Temperatures shortly before sunrise were in the middle 40s to near 50 north and in the 50s south, except in the lower 60s across northern Door County where light northerly winds were moving across the relatively warmer waters of the Bay of Green Bay.
A mainly-dry cold front will finish pushing across the region late today.
Some weak short wave energy will be diving southeast and deepening the upper level eastern trough later tonight/early Friday, but looks too moisture starved to bring anything more than a temporary uptick in clouds.
As of 17Z, CU development was noted over the high terrain of Clark, Mohave and Lincoln counties. At this time, it does not appear to be affecting CI farther west, at least over the higher terrain so believe the current watch is still a good call as it highlights these areas. Storms today will tend to favor the higher terrain with flash flooding once again possible. With the expectation of slow moving storms favoring the higher terrain, limited the Flash Flood Watch today to mainly the higher elevation zones of Clark, eastern San Bernardino, Mohave, and Lincoln Counties.
The upper level high will be over southeast WY today, allowing for the current moisture plume over ID/UT to shift eastward over the forecast area. Locally heavy rain will be the main threat with these storms due to the higher than normal PW values, although localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. The upper level high will continue to shift toward the southeast over eastern CO/western KS.
Currently, an upper trough over the eastern US is amplifying northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley and is finally pushing the quasi-stationary front, that has been in the region for days, south through central Kentucky. Behind the front, skies are clear and will remain that way into the early afternoon hours, but later in the evening into the overnight hours, a second more progressive cold front will rush south through Indiana. Today, high temperatures reach into the low to mid 80s. High pressure behind the front will clear skies, and north-northeast winds will usher in lows in the 60s across much of central Kentucky. Our southern Indiana and northern Bluegrass counties will likely drop a little cooler with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s.
Large high pressure continues to dominate aloft with high pressure at the surface as well. Highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with slightly breezy south and southwesterly winds at the surface. High pressure aloft will remain through the weekend keeping us hot and dry.
A secondary cold front currently draped across central IN will continue to drop south towards the area into tonight; however, do not expect much in the way of impacts with this besides a slight uptick in cloud coverage. Afternoon temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with most locations expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s for today. Afternoon highs on Friday will then be a couple of degrees cooler than today, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
248 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A reinforcing cold front will push through tonight.
Most storms will be along and south of the I-10 corridor (as upper level high pressure was stronger to the north), but an isolated storm could develop as far north as San Angelo and Brownwood. Lows overnight will be in the lower to mid 70s tonight, with highs in the mid and upper 90s Friday.
This has allowed some warmer coastal temperatures and weakened the marine stratus layer. Ridging over the Four Corners will gradually nudge westward and afternoon high temperatures will be on the increase starting today.
Cloud cover and drier low-levels (lingering dryness from the ridge that has been centered over us for the last few days) will inhibit stronger storm development for the most part, and showers and thunderstorms will generally be popcorn style across the region.
703 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected well south of Pittsburgh this evening with a cold front.
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Ridging persists over the western United States while a trough deepens to the east. Central and southeast Missouri will see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures peaking in the upper 80s.
Tomorrow should be mostly dry as a weak ridge builds back across the area. The weekend looks slightly warmer and mostly dry. /issued 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/ Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front was located across north Mississippi at this time. The cold front will continue to move slowly south tonight and should make its way into central Mississippi by Friday morning. High pressure will start to build into the region on Friday with dry weather expected. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today but will remain below normal with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Drier and cooler for the weekend. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s- a few degrees cooler than normal! Friday night will bring even cooler temps with lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Locally high pressure was in firm control, resulting in plenty of sunshine and another dry day with of 90 degree temperatures.
649 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) High pressure over Central CONUS will dominate the weather pattern for the short term period. Expect similar conditions Friday with afternoon temps maybe a degree or two warmer as the high pressure shifts slightly southward. Temperatures overnight will be mild in the low to mid 70s.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s- a few degrees cooler than normal! Friday night will bring even cooler temps with lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
This makes sense as it brings the higher QPF closer to where blends show the surface moisture gradient setting up overnight.
The backdoor cold front is a challenge to find in the light wind field, but is generally draped from western Iowa through northeast Missouri and south central Illinois and slowly moving southwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to form along the nose of the low-level jet to our north tonight, and as previously mentioned, could slide into our northern CWA by the early morning. MRM Ridging persists over the western United States while a trough deepens to the east. Central and southeast Missouri will see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures peaking in the upper 80s.
Then dry and cooler weather is expected the rest of the night into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s, while tomorrow's highs will be cooler than normal, in the middle to upper 70s. A cold front has pushed south across much of central Illinois this evening. Meanwhile, dew points in the lower to mid 70s ahead of the front are being replaced by lower 60s and 50 dew points. Isolated showers and storms will continue across central and eastern Illinois late this afternoon into early this evening as a weak cold front moves south through the area. Dry and cooler weather is expected the rest of the night into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s, while tomorrow's highs will be cooler than normal, in the middle to upper 70s.
Breezes are forecast to slowly slacken tomorrow through the weekend as an upper-level trough pushes eastward and off the Eastern Seaboard.
Light shower activity will linger into Friday evening with temperatures in the low 80s. Winds will become light and variable overnight INVOF low level ridge axis.
708 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected well south of Pittsburgh this evening with a cold front.
625 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Guidance continues to suggest a corridor from Devils Lake Basin toward Fargo seeing the highest precipitation chances.
1039 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers/thunderstorms (including what appears to be some minisupercells) continue near a cold front dropping south into KY late this evening. High pressure is building behind the front this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will be advected into the region behind the Friday morning front.
Additional minor diurnal cumulus may also develop on Friday, but generally clear skies can be expected as high pressure persist over the area. Light northerly flow off of this high will also hold into Friday. Confluent flow aloft will reinforce high pressure across the Great Lakes through Friday, with the path of the system tracking from western Ontario into central Michigan. Clear skies are expected as a result which will support lows dropping into the lower 50s, touching the upper 40s in some spots (Bay/Midland). High pressure will drift into New England through late in the day on Friday before washing out.
/issued 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/ Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front was located across north Mississippi at this time. The cold front will continue to move slowly south tonight and should make its way into central Mississippi by Friday morning. High pressure will start to build into the region on Friday with dry weather expected. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today but will remain below normal with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
916 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A reinforcing cold front will push through tonight.
Broad ridging across the Rockies will lead to the UP being on the eastern periphery of this ridge - which will allow a prolonged period of predominately NW flow. Starting tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a wave drops SE riding along the ridge axis.
A prevailing stagnant hot/dry pattern will continue throughout the period as an upper level high dominates across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely again this afternoon as a deepening lee side trough in eastern Colorado brings more of a southerly flow to western Kansas. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected tonight as well with lows generally down into the mid/upper 60s(F). Hot/dry conditions will persist through the weekend as ridging aloft remains positioned across the Western High Plains.
With the lower dew points and light winds, expect temps to fall lower than the NBM numbers, closer to MET/MAV guidance, by around midnight before stabilizing or even rising as the high cloud moves over the region later tonight. Convection fires along an elevated warm front from Northeast WI to western Lower Michigan later tonight and into Saturday.
A potent trough continues to dig across the Great Lakes region while a large upper ridge is drifting eastward into the central plains. This upper ridge will be the primary catalyst for dry and hot weather to continue through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Today and tonight, an upper level ridge will be centered across the Central Plains, while at the surface, high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west and northwest will continue to bring easterly surface flow to the region.
Today is going to be a very nice day with a refreshing north breeze and dew points falling into the low to mid 60s by this evening.
215 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The front will move south of the area late Friday allowing high pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region for the weekend. Temperatures cooled quite a bit in areas that received rain with temps in the low to mid 70s. Expect lows in the lower 70s. Saturday and Saturday night high pressure along with northerly flow will push additional cooler and drier air into the area keeping skies mostly clear and making for very comfortable conditions.
In the Near Term, an upper level trough over the western portion of the Southeast (and the forecast area) shifts east to off the East Coast by Saturday evening as upper level high pressure builds southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast. Decreased cloud cover and moisture levels are not expected to overrule the increasing upper subsidence Friday night, with temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s Friday night over the majority of the forecast area. A warmer Saturday is expected to see temperatures topping out in the 89 to 93 degree range, closer to seasonal norms.
Broad mid-level warm advection/moisture transport across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest north and east of the low was aiding in upstream shower development. 50", but the high end ensemble max amounts indicates localized amounts of 1-2+" possible. The highest chances look to reside across central/northern WI near the convergent axis of the low-level jet later tonight. Far western areas, closer to the thermal ridge, could warm higher into the 70s with enough clearing.
The upper ridge remains centered well to our north in the central Rockies, keeping the highest thickness and most anomalous warmth out of our area.
Meanwhile, upper lvl ridging to expand into the FA fm the Plains States.
The combination of a warm front, 850mb warm advection and a northwest to southeast fgen band that is expected to up from west-central Wisconsin into central Wisconsin will bring a chance of showers to the southwestern portion of the forecast area today. High temperatures a little tricky depending on how much sunshine we see, and also where the surface warm front sets up.
An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS centered over the high plains of CO extending southwest into the Southern Plains. By early Saturday morning, some modest low level moisture advection will result in increasing dewpoints and slightly warmer overnight lows.
The backdoor cold front is a challenge to find in the light wind field, but is generally draped from western Iowa through northeast Missouri and south central Illinois and slowly moving southwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to form along the nose of the low-level jet to our north tonight, and as previously mentioned, could slide into our northern CWA by the early morning. MRM Ridging persists over the western United States while a trough deepens to the east. Central and southeast Missouri will see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. Jaja The eastern extent of the upper level ridging in the western CONUS will expand through the Midwest Saturday.
A secondary cold front currently draped across central IN will continue to drop south towards the area into tonight; however, do not expect much in the way of impacts with this besides a slight uptick in cloud coverage. Afternoon temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with most locations expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s for today. Afternoon highs on Friday will then be a couple of degrees cooler than today, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few of the typical cool spots may even fall into the low 50s. Saturday should continue the pleasant weather trend with mostly sunny skies, below normal temps in the low to mid 80s, and comfortable dew points still in the 50s.
Large high pressure continues to dominate aloft with high pressure at the surface as well. Highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with slightly breezy south and southwesterly winds at the surface. High pressure aloft will remain through the weekend keeping us hot and dry. Saturday's highs will be a touch warmer in the mid to upper 90s but with a few spots hitting the low 100s.
Max temps should decrease a few degrees over the weekend owing to the higher humidity and cloud cover, but nights will remain quite warm.
With an area of low pressure likely developing off of the coast on Friday, this should draw most of the moisture in and limit convection further inland.
240 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Upper ridge will remain over the area through Saturday with afternoon highs remaining well into the 90s for most areas. Mid level moisture associated with the monsoonal flow will penetrate a little further northward under the ridge into our CWA today. There appears to be a better chance of convection getting over the plains and east central Montana by Saturday afternoon/evening as the ridge axis slides a bit east. Ridging remains in control over the region, with, at least, some degree of monsoonal moisture hanging around.
The southwest flow aloft will continue to dry and stabilize on Saturday with just a slight chance of convection over the higher terrain of SW Idaho.
(Today) The combined influence of sfc ridging extending across the local region and high pressure aloft will lead to a dry and warm conditions.
259 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The CWA resides along the eastern flank of the strong monsoonal plume, which continues to stream around the western periphery of high pressure. Though, a subtle shift is expected in the high's center, sliding to the south and east. However, stirring winds follow the clockwise rotation of the high, shifting storm motion to the north- northeast as you move closer the the Wyoming border.
Today: Generally quiet weather is expected heading into this weekend with a dominate upper ridge over the western/central united states. Far eastern parts of the area may remain in the lower 80s today.
1140 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 High pressure will bring light northerly flow and VFR conditions with just minor diurnal cumulus again Friday afternoon. Confluent flow aloft will reinforce high pressure across the Great Lakes through Friday, with the path of the system tracking from western Ontario into central Michigan. Clear skies are expected as a result which will support lows dropping into the lower 50s, touching the upper 40s in some spots (Bay/Midland). High pressure will drift into New England through late in the day on Friday before washing out. A weak low pressure system will spin up from a wave across Montana and will track into the Midwest through Saturday morning.
1200 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Dry and cooler weather is expected through Saturday night under high pressure. Patchy fog is also expected, mainly S of the WV/PA border where the rain and cold front were last to clear the area. High pressure with cool, nwly flow will prevail through Saturday night with early Fall like temperature in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
More moisture begins to sneak in late Friday early Saturday as the upper level trough starts to deepen towards the area pushing the ridge further south. Moisture from the trough and moisture form the SW flow will allow for higher chances for showers and storms this weekend. A few tweaks to the PoPs were made for this evening to show the lower chance for showers.
Cloud cover and drier low-levels (lingering dryness from the ridge that has been centered over us for the last few days) will inhibit stronger storm development for the most part, and showers and thunderstorms will generally be popcorn style across the region. With the H5 ridge centered on western Kansas on Saturday, the door will be open for the continued moisture surge northward into the state.
A chance for precipitation will return through the second half of the weekend though as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with highs on Saturday the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper trough/closed upper low parked over the Eastern CONUS will dictate weather conditions through this period.
125 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Quiet weather conditions are expected into early Saturday as high pressure builds in across the region.
High pressure remains centered over the Central High Plains today and Saturday with an upper ridge over the center of the nation.
High temperatures today are a little difficult to determine as some model guidance suggest cooler temps in the northern half of the CWA, while others indicate warmer in the southern half. Upper level pattern early on in the period shows broad ridging across the Northern Plains. As the week wears on, the axis of this ridge shifts back westward as troughing develops over the Great Lakes region. This will put our area in northwest flow throughout much of the period and also keep the high heat well off to the west as well.