Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite the cloud cover, southwesterly flow this afternoon will still usher in warmer temperatures than the area saw yesterday.
548 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Warm front advances into the region by tonight with rain. Cold front passes Thursday night.
Aloft, mid-level ridging, will rebuild/amplify from the southern GOMEX northward.
The only areas with the greatest impact will be those near or just down wind of cooler water such as the Miss River and other shallow water areas that have been cooled for the last few days. Fog will be in and out of these areas this morning and will remain patchy at best with locations along the river possibly having the lowest visibilities for the longest amount of time.
This surface cyclone will be not only a major player in erosion of the dense fog this morning, but also a big influence on fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. South of the low we will see stronger west and southwest winds but slightly higher RH values. Also of note will be the shift to northerly winds behind a cold front that will move quickly southward over the region through the evening. Winds behind the cold front will likely be stronger than those we will see this afternoon ahead of the front.
The weaker initial pieces of energy moving through the ridge work with the increasing moisture to bring light to moderate shra to the area today into tonight. Subsidence from the upper ridge works with the increasing, but still limited deep layer moisture to limit any thunderstorms mixing in with the shra. Subsidence from the upper ridge is also enough to bring well above seasonal temps today, with highs flirting again with records for the date (81-MOB/79-PNS).
Shower coverage is scattered, and each run of the high res models develops less moving into the morning hours. Rain chances increase going into the overnight with a thunderstorm mention as the low tracks through the state. With the low moving through the state in the overnight/predawn hours, the area is just in a general thunder risk as instability will be limited, even with the shear/lift close to the low center. but the intensity of the development of the low. Airmass behind the cold front/low on Thursday not that much of a shift in the temps.
Cooler temperatures will follow this system Wednesday and Wednesday night. A return to dry and warmer weather will occur by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. The winter storm system we've been expecting is tracking across the state this morning, with the mid level low and cold pool pushing into central and southern Arizona now, and the surface cold front just east of Tucson. Colder temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning with much of SE AZ near or below freezing, including some outlying areas around Tucson Metro. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward.
Vigorous upper level low is moving southeast from the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific Northwest this morning. As the trough moves south along the Pacific NW coast, the flow aloft shifts to the southwest. Elsewhere, precipitation will start off as snow in the lower elevations, although precipitation shadowing will come into play with this system as strong SW flow aloft develops. Little to no snow accumulation expected in the Snake Plain as temperatures will be near or slightly above freezing; roads should stay wet. Elsewhere, snow levels rise to 4500 to 5500ft by Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.
28/12Z TAF CYCLE Warm front was situated just north of a KDEQ-KPBF-KMEM line this mrng. Sctd convection wl also be possible by tngt as a cold front is fcst to enter NW AR late in the PD. By this aftn, overall areal coverage wl cont to incrs over the entire FA, as the main upr trof apchs AR fm the Srn Plains. Rain chances wl finally diminish fm the NW later tngt and Thu morning as the cold front moves out of the area. High pressure wl then bld in for the rest of the PD with much drier and somewhat cooler airmass.
759 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
Westerly winds are still set to increase in a few hours and become gusty ahead of an upper-lvl trough over AZ. Winds will continue gusty and begin to veer overnight, as a cold front moves into the area after 09Z Thu. /issued 344 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018/ Strong upper low moving over Srn CA to AZ this morning will open up into a trough as it swings east passing over NM early evening into TX by midnight and OK by Thursday morning. Weak high pressure builds in behind the trough.
While an upper ridge will build across the region during the day today, several weak ripples in the flow may generate enough lift for isolated showers across the western and northern portions of the forecast area.
423 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the northern US, with a weak trof crossing the northern Plains at the moment. Some mid and high clouds are associated with this trof, but atmosphere is dry with no precip detected. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Plains. Northern stream trof will track across the Northern and Central Plains today, bringing clouds but no precip expected. Temps will remain below average today as high pressure slides across the area.
617 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 High pressure along the mid Atlantic Seaboard will move away from the region this morning as a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will move north of the area late today with a cold front crossing the area late Thursday afternoon.
Surface wise, an expansive ridge of high pressure extends across the extreme southeast United States and the Florida peninsula. A deep layered anticyclone lying across our area and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters will maintain synoptic scale descent. With that, dime pops under mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the lower 80s looks on track.
340 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 An upper trof will be moving across the area thru the day, with the best upper level lift being over NM. The lower elevations adjacent to the mtns may see some isold to scattered showers at times. Temps across much of southeast and south central CO will be a little cooler than yesterday, but should be around average. Otherwise, the upper level trof will be exiting the area tonight, with an upper level ridge building.
A cold front will move through the area overnight. Focus then turns to our next cold front moving through the area tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
331 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 A short lived flat ridge of high pressure will influence the weather today with precip free conditions. Then clouds will increase in Western Wyoming tonight as a large area of low pressure tracks southeast from the Gulf of Alaska toward the mainland. A few snow flurries will fall in the higher mtns tonight before steadier snowfall becomes established in the west by Thursday morning when some isentropic lift becomes established.
Guidance has been much too cold the last coupe of days, so went with the higher end of the guidance and further raised temps from there, especially in eastern MN and western WI as we maintain upper level southwesterly flow. Temps in eastern MN and western WI should reach the low to mid 40s, with cooler temps in western MN thanks to the much higher albedo there. The first is a low pressures system that is currently emerging across the state of Kansas and will progress eastward through tonight as it gains strength.
Thawing temperatures would provide additional surface moisture which could easily form into freezing fog overnight tonight. BMickelson Previous discussion: Weak upper trof swinging across Montana this morning will be followed by a building upper ridge through the end of the week. Driver for the building upper ridge is a strong upper low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska along the Canadian west coast.
The weather should remain dry today over the taf sites along with VFR conditions, as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shift east into the Florida Peninsula. Mid level ridge centered over the Gulf of MX will gradually shift e keeping control of South Florida and providing a benign weather pattern through the end of the week. By Thursday winds shifting s to sw will allow temps to be much warmer across the interior and east coast metro areas.
345 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the northern US, with a weak trof crossing the northern Plains at the moment. Some mid and high clouds are associated with this trof, but atmosphere is dry with no precip detected. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Plains. Northern stream trof will track across the Northern and Central Plains today, bringing clouds but no precip expected. Temps will remain below average today as high pressure slides across the area.
444 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Mid-level moisture will continue to advect into the region ahead of a deep upper low positioned near the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into central Missouri by the afternoon hours, which could force the development of thunderstorm activity into the mid afternoon and early evening. Afternoon highs will be moderated by existing cloud cover, with the exception being areas south of the Missouri River, coincident with the placement of the warm front. Expecting temps to rise into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon across northern Missouri, with values in the 60s across central Missouri. Behind the cold front, surface winds will quickly increase during the overnight hours, with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible.
615 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 A weak cold front extending northeast from low pressure over southwest Kansas into central Iowa will slowly drift south today.
336 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight, as a warm front develops to the north through Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than this morning with upper-60s/low-70s expected. Tomorrow looks rather windy across the region with the pressure gradient tightening a bit more with low pressure to our northwest deepening and surface ridging moving farther to the northeast. Stronger mid-level impulse will eject from the base of the trough across AZ and tap into the elevated instability that will be in place; on the order of 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
245 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough over Baja, generally in line w/what models predicted 24 hours ago, leaving almost meridional flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. During the day, 40+kt 0-6km shear will be rounding the base of the trough and moving into the region, strengthening to 60-70kt after 00Z. Once the trough passes, dirty ridging moves in through the weekend.
This low level moisture will likely mix out later this evening before redeveloping after midnight with the possibility of MVFR ceilings at the LFK/TYR/GGG terminals in the 10-17z timeframe before ceiling climb above 3kft beyond the 17z timeframe. /issued 324 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ Upper ridge axis remains fixed down the midsection of the CONUS, sandwiched between a deep upper low over the ne and another over the nrn Baja Peninsula.
General decay/flattening of prior anomalous deep layered trough from James Bay sewd through New England has allowed sharp low level baroclinic zone to intrude back newd into the srn lakes as denoted in aggregate extensive accas cloud field from sw WI sewd through cntrl IL. Upstream low level thermal ridge is fairly unstable and with relatively low WBZ heights in place along wrn extent of retreating CP airmass. Primary model based contention this period continues to be nrn bound of near stationary warm frontal zone bisecting warm mid level ridge across the plains and cold upper trough split between Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Maine.
426 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Cold front that was pretty close to bisecting our CWA at 19z will continue pushing east through the rest of the afternoon and evening with all areas seeing northwest wind by around sunset.
High pressure over central Canada is ridging southward into Central Kentucky this hour. The ridge is narrow across us though, and on the west side of it, we are seeing much higher dewpoints, even to the mid to upper 40s in the Bowling Green vicinity. The warm front associated with these rains will not move much during the day Tuesday, Best thinking at this point is that it will be just northeast of a SDF/Richmond line in the afternoon.
Winds around 15 knots with gusts into the lower 20s will also continue through sunset. The low level jet will begin to build right along the coast just before sunrise. /issued 444 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The blocking mid to upper level ridge axis is over the eastern portions of Texas extending north through the Central Plains with a 500 mb low over Southern California.
On Tuesday, another disturbance will rotate northward, east of the upper low over Arizona.
151 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A broad area of low pressure will continue to spin over the Northeast through the first half of the week.
But went more toward warmer MET across the south as clouds thicken and lower. Warm front sets up over the CWA with increasing frontogenesis as it moves into the Tug Fork Valley on the West Virginia/Kentucky border. Warm front/deformation zone persists through the front end of the extended until the central area of low pressure/trough aloft passes through the middle Ohio Valley. May not dry out over these areas until the beginning of the weekend in the wake of the low pressure system.
Early this morning a ridge of high pressure was located over northwest Ontario south into eastern Wisconsin. Several areas of rain showers and thunderstorms were occurring along the warm front, near the inverted trough, and near the low center. The high pressure over Ontario and approaching low pressure from South Dakota should support the development of a mesoscale trough along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Falling heights and mid-level frontogenesis associated with the inverted trough is sufficient to warrant chance POPs late this afternoon into this evening in our west.
345 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Stagnant weather will continue over the central Great Lakes through at least midweek as blocking drifts across the Baffin Island and Greenland regions. To varying degrees over the next couple of days, persistent entrance region dynamics aloft will support a shearing zone over the Great Lakes in addition to aggregate surface ridging due to high static stability in a deep portion of the troposphere.
336 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A warm front will work into the region tonight bringing a chance of rain showers.
125 PM PDT Mon May 8 2017 Moisture wrapping around a deep upper low over northern Baja will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts Tuesday and Tuesday night.
After slightly warmer than seasonable temperatures overnight tonight, the stratus will likely be slow to retreat tomorrow, helping to lower max temperatures.
653 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight, as a warm front develops to the north through Tuesday.
131 PM PDT Mon May 8 2017 Low pressure over the region will maintain a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and desert through Tuesday. Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low continuing to spin just off the northern Baja California coast. Some moisture is continuing to wrap around the low, bringing clouds over the mountains along with a few showers over Tulare and Kern county mountain areas. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago. The upper low is forecast to slowly drift east inland over Baja to near the Arizona/Mexico border by Tuesday.
305 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed broad anticyclonic flow over the south central CONUS with large upper troughs over the northeastern and southwestern portions of the CONUS. Surface observations were observed in the lower 80s across the state and visible satellite imagery only showed a few cumulus clouds developing in the peak heating hours of the day.
329 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the Baja California coast, troughing in the Rockies and also in the ern U. and ridging in the plains. Upper pattern does not change much with the closed low moving into the desert sw 00z Wed. As a high pressure system continues to remain near the area.
Higher terrain the the NW of SAT, including DRT may see the lower cigs last through around 22Z. The flow aloft will become a little more active on Tuesday as an upper low slowly approaches the region.
Upper level ridging will move over the region today through Tuesday which means quiet and warm weather for the Missouri Ozarks. Fair skies will be expected today and tomorrow with highs in the lower to middle 80s. A large slow moving upper level low will start to move out of the southwestern U.
/issued 916 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure remains over the area producing rain-free conditions once again today. High pressure over the area will keep winds and seas below any headline criteria for the next several days.
Gusty northwest winds have persisted behind the front, but will see these winds diminish tonight as high pressure begins building into the region. Otherwise, it appears much of the CWA will be dry on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control.
316 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 It was partly cloudy and warm across the Mid-State early this afternoon, with temperatures in the lower 70s along the Cumberland Plateau and middle to upper 70s elsewhere. Upper level ridge remains arced up across the Mississippi River Valley, with a warm westerly flow at the surface across Middle Tennessee.
Stagnant weather pattern continues as the high pressure ridge and attendant anomalously dry hair holds firm.
Upper trough working its way down the West Coast will begin to translate across the Desert Southwest overnight.
Upper level analysis places compact low spinning over southern Saskatchewan, while a short wave rides up the upper level ridge that pushes into the upper midwest through the Lake of the Woods. A line of showers and thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota continues to gradually exit the southeast portion of our area, while some cloud cover has developed over our northwest in the cyclonic flow around the aforementioned upper low.
559 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and cool weather through the first half of the week. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight under high pressure. Continued the frost advisory that was already in effect as well as adding a freeze warning across Butler, Lawrence, and Mercer counties with below freezing conditions expected.
350 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Tonight and Tuesday afternoon: Ridging aloft will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as high pressure at the surface slowly slides east of the forecast area over the next 24 hours.
254 PM PDT Mon May 8 2017 A warming and drying trend will be in store through midweek as high pressure briefly builds across the region.
Some clouds will be on the increase tonight as the battle of the seasons continues with cooler, late winter type weather across the Northeastern United States and warmer, mid Spring style weather in place over much of the center of the nation. The good news is temperatures will be a good ten to fifteen degrees warmer than today; concerning both lows tonight and highs on Tuesday.
A warm front extended from the low southeast into far western KY. A blocky upper air pattern remained in place across North America with closed upper lows centered over southern Quebec and south of California with upper ridging in the plains. The warm front will move northeast across KY tonight and Tuesday before becoming stationary over northeast KY or WV. Temperatures tonight are tricky, as very dry air remains in place ahead of the warm front, and temperatures would drop quickly in the sheltered valleys after sunset unless clouds move in quick enough. On Tuesday a short wave trough will dive southeast into the mean long wave trough in the eastern U.
An unusually strong low pressure storm system for early May will bring unsettled conditions for the Southwest United States for the first half of the week.
Cooler air looks to be firmly entrenched with decent upslope flow along and east of Interstate 25.
A high pressure ridge will maintain dry conditions and increase temperatures across the region the next few days.
653 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Aviation One more night of freezing temperatures can be expected for most areas tonight as light winds and a cool and very dry air mass remains in place.
The large upper-level low to the south will begin a slow departing track away from Nevada tonight as a ridge builds in.
300 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and cool weather through the first half of the week. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight under high pressure. Continued the frost advisory that was already in effect as well as adding a freeze warning across Butler, Lawrence, and Mercer counties with below freezing conditions expected.
319 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge in place over the Central and Southern Plains. Elevated thunderstorm activity in Iowa has slowly diminished over the morning, with storms continuing over the Dakotas downstream of an upper level trough over southern Saskatchewan. Cold front associated with this wave was moving southeast into central portions of Nebraska. This boundary mixes a bit north Tuesday as the upper ridge nudges east. Weak cold air advection early should keep temps a bit cooler in the north and east but similar temps expected again in the south and east. By Tuesday night, a deep upper-level closed low will be located over the southwestern U. with broad ridging over the eastern CONUS.
Southeast Louisiana-centered high pressure has turned the gradient around to onshore so southerly winds are here to stay through the majority of the work week.
356 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across South Florida through the end of the week. High temperatures each afternoon will remain in the mid 80s across the East Coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior sections.
227 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low over the southwest United States/northeast United States and upper level ridge over the central United States. First pieces of energy ejecting out of the closed low over southwest United States is overtopping the ridge and producing a cluster of showers/thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota per latest mosaic radar.
Skies are sunny across the Florida Keys, and temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. The Pulley Ridge buoy reports seas of 2 ft in the southeastern gulf. Expect another mostly clear afternoon and night with a deep layered ridge of high pressure in control across the Gulf of Mexico.
249 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 2 PM surface map showed 1006 mb low pressure in southwest MN with a warm front extending southeast into west central IL. Lows will be significantly warmer than recent nights, in the low to mid 50s. Highs should range from the low to mid 70s north of I-74, to the lower 80s farther southwest where more sunshine and southwest flow will boost readings.
An unbalanced omega block pattern is in place over the US CONUS this afternoon with two large closed lows situated across the far NE CONUS and the Baja, Mexico.