Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough currently translating eastward over the Great Basin/ Desert Southwest will eject northeastward over the central Rockies into the northern U. This will flatten a weak upper ridge currently over our region, result in southwesterly flow pushing dry air and a low level thermal ridge eastward, and allow temperatures to rise around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Tuesday.
Upper level ridge that has been in place the past few days begins to dampen and push east into Tuesday with a stronger upper level trough ejects out of the desert SW. Upper level ridging to build back into the central US in earnest through the end of the week into the weekend. H85 temps increase into the low to mid 20s C through the week. GFS/EC both try to dampen the ridge somewhat into the weekend bringing a few weak waves across the northern US with some storm chances.
Forecast area will begin to transition back to more humid conditions tonight as high pressure over the great lakes region that provided for a much drier airmass the past couple of days will move eastward. Weak mid level disturbance triggering area of showers over central Wisconsin will drop southeastward as it rounds the ridge. Frontal wave currently over southern Minnesota will bring frontal boundary back northward as a warm front tonight.
An area of high pressure will settle over the region today with dry and stable conditions expected. An area of low pressure approaching the region from the west tonight will interact with the LLM to result in convective development. there is some concern for severe storms in southeastern SD where ML Cape values could exceed 1000 J/KG ahead of a cold front/dryline.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that the upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary over the Region during the period while an upper disturbance moves around the western/northern periphery of the ridge.
330 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 As weak high pressure slips to our south this evening, a secondary cold front will stall near the NC-VA state line late tonight/early Tuesday. Weak high pressure over the area this afternoon will quickly slip southeast of the area this evening, allowing light southerly winds to develop. Attendant dry secondary cold front will push south and stall across northeastern NC/southeastern VA at around daybreak. It's possible that convective rain chances/pops could be higher than expected and linger into the overnight hours if any of the individual upper disturbances leftover from the remnant upper low over the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf Coast states drift north into the area.
259 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Forecast challenge for tonight will be overnight lows as high pressure over the region should keep region mostly clear in the evening, with some cirrus in the south and southeast. Overall looking for overnight lows in the mid 50s but if skies are clear longer and winds become light enough across the region, overnight lows may be a few deg cooler.
Increasing low-level moisture, along with afternoon temperatures soaring into the middle 90s have caused Heat Index values to climb into the low 100s for many.
Leftover MCS showers over central/southern lower MI are now effectively becoming an eastern extension of a warm front in eastern Iowa/ northern IL. That isn/t terribly impressive, but the e-w deep moisture plume associated with the warm front is not far away.
417 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Somewhat flat upper level ridge from central conus across Upper Great Lakes builds and moves east through Tue afternoon. At the sfc, high pressure ridge from Hudson Bay expands across rest of Great Lakes by Tue aftn. Stationary front will stay on the southwest edge of the High pressure ridge and most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain closer to the stationary front as they are doing this afternoon. The overall pattern through the upcoming weekend will be dominated by a fairly large mid-level ridge spanning from the Rockies to New England. During this time a series of troughs will attempt to move through the area, with the main focus on rain chances mid-week.
300 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 The short lived cooler and drier airmass across the area has now given way to a hot and humid airmass. Short term forecast concern revolves around mesoscale forced thunderstorms with weak forcing, and what this does to the airmass ahead of a negatively tilted trof advecting in to the area in the afternoon. Residual outflow boundaries from tonight's convection, along with a H5 trof swinging into the area and a warm advection wing moving across the CWA during the day will lead to the development of thunderstorms. If storms remain elevated, the main threat during the day may be hail from any rotating thunderstorms along the warm front. If storms can become surface based, then brief tornadoes could be possible across the warm front during the day.
The trough of low pressure is pushing eastward across the southwest with storm activity stranded north of the area over northern Arizona and Utah/Colorado. Overnight the trough will continue passing overhead and by Tuesday morning it is expected to be east of the area. Broad troughiness over the northwest US will make for dry southwest flow over Arizona through mid week. As the latter end of the week approaches high pressure both at the surface and aloft is expected to strengthen rapidly leading to a period of above normal temperatures.
603 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
Highs this afternoon will also be a challenge as abundant clouds and the passage of the aforementioned cold front to the north keep highs around 70 degrees, while further south temperatures could get to around 80 across central Wisconsin given a later arrival of the cooler air. Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly warm considering the passing of a cold front, with highs ranging from the lower 50s across the north and middle to upper 50s across the southern cwa. A low pressure system developing across the northern plains will bring increased chances for rain to the southern and western cwa Tuesday afternoon as the stalled out boundary gets lifted back north as a warm front. However heavy rain is certainly a threat given the high PWAT values and slow moving nature of these storms.
312 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday.
Was looking to end the western portion of the Winter Storm Warning with this package but satellite showing enhancement over E Idaho into SW/SC Montana associated with broad divergence aloft and QG forcing associated with upper trof moving into the area. Snow will taper off after midnight over eastern zones as the upper trof drives best moisture southeast of the area.
620 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Tonight: Anticipate few hours of freezing drizzle/drizzle/fog in area behind front, followed by brief improvement as cold air deepens. Will keep dense fog advisory going into the evening to cover the combo of dense fog/freezing fog.
Building high pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
635 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Low pressure will bring a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain to the region tonight through Saturday night. A brief push of warmer air will accompany this system with temperatures pushing into the 30s to low 40s on Saturday.
This means there will be a brief period of time for everyone to experience some freezing rain and sleet before the QPF exits a given area. This is going to warm everything up and really limit the amount of freezing rain any one area will see. I know this is long-winded to say that the current forecast is on track, but confidence is pretty good in a fairly limited impacts regarding Saturday night's freezing rain/sleet potential.
523 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. Light snow should develop later this evening with a change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Temperatures will rise overnight, and will quickly rise above freezing by daybreak south, and by mid to late morning north. Have continued to hold onto freezing rain for a time after air temperatures go above freezing with cold ground to be overcome.
330 pm PST Fri Dec 16 2016 Freezing temperatures in the valley this weekend with dry conditions.
Main challenge is timing the first wind shift with cold frontal surge. Temperatures will continue to rise this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening.
950 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Deep anticyclonic flow remains over the southern Gulf of Mexico through the northwest Caribbean this evening with a broad longitudinal ridge through the eastern U.
Lows Saturday night will be in the evening hours for most areas, -10 to near -25, as winds eventually turn west-southwest on the back side of the high and warm advection takes place.
Onshore flow tomorrow will strengthen with low pressure and a strong cold front to the north of the state Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight and Saturday will be warmer, with potential record breaking highs in some areas.
406 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Tonight: Anticipate few hours of freezing drizzle/drizzle/fog in area behind front, followed by brief improvement as cold air deepens. Will keep dense fog advisory going into the evening to cover the combo of dense fog/freezing fog.
600 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Initial VFR conditions should begin to deteriorate overnight, particularly at CHA, as low pressure tracks into the Ozarks and toward the Ohio Valley tonight.
Models all show a sharp inverted trof setting up along the shoreline overnight, which will enhance convergence.
A warm and increasingly moist southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper trough and low intensifying over Utah will track east across Colorado overnight. In the high country. This evening could see snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in the high country and as the main storm front and associated convection moves through the area. Travel in the high country will likely be most impacted during this period. the upper trough passes over the Front Range area early in the morning providing additional lift for light snowfall during the morning hours. drying aloft and a shift to northwest flow aloft in the wake of the trough should cause a fairly rapid reduction in snowfall from northwest to southeast across the CWA.
Wind speeds increase during the day Saturday ahead of next cold front that will move through Saturday night. Onshore flow tomorrow will strengthen with low pressure and a strong cold front to the north of the state Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight and Saturday will be warmer, with potential record breaking highs in some areas.
Tonight: Anticipate few hours of freezing drizzle/drizzle/fog in area behind front, followed by brief improvement as cold air deepens. Will keep dense fog advisory going into the evening to cover the combo of dense fog/freezing fog.
Winds will increase tomorrow ahead of a cold front with speeds around 15kts and gusts to near 20-25kts. Stratus deck has kept temperatures a little cooler today than originally anticipated. However, some locations in the southern half of the forecast area have been able to warm into the lower 60s. The northern half of the CWA, especially along the Highway 82 corridor, have remained in the upper 40s. The highest winds should be in the Delta, though gusty winds will be present elsewhere.
911 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Low level flow continues to veer this evening as high pressure over the eastern seaboard retreats into the Atlantic, ahead of a major winter storm that is expected to trek through the Ohio Valley and up into the Northeast US on Saturday. Regarding the prospects for precipitation along the coast, have opted to remove mentionable PoPs this package as showers have had a hard time maintaining themselves as they move toward shore over the cooler shelf waters. Area of high pressure will push offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, veering winds to the S/SE.
918 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. Nevertheless, strong warm advection will initiate a rapid phase change to sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. Light snow should develop later this evening with a change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Temperatures will rise overnight, and will quickly rise above freezing by daybreak south, and by mid to late morning north. Have continued to hold onto freezing rain for a time after air temperatures go above freezing with cold ground to be overcome.
Temp/dew-points continue to rise across most of the area as low level moisture surges north ahead of low pressure system. Temperatures will continue to warm across SE OK/NW AR as cold front moves into NE OK this evening.
522 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 As of 2:30pm Friday afternoon, the advancing cold front was positioned along the Interstate 15 corridor in central Utah.
919 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Updated winds and temps through Saturday to account for the recent acceleration of the cold front through the northeast TX Panhandle. This is about six faster than earlier forecasts indicated, but on par with trends from the high resolution model camp. The narrow overlap between ascent with the progressive upper trough and low level saturation do not look impressive for anything more than our forecast of very light wintry accumulations in our northern zones, so no changes are warranted there.
347 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 As of 2:30pm Friday afternoon, the advancing cold front was positioned along the Interstate 15 corridor in central Utah.
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTING TRAVEL AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND Now through Saturday Morning: Periods of freezing drizzle will continue, especially across northern Missouri where surface temperatures will remain below freezing. This has resulted in numerous reported accidents along the Highway 36 corridor. As the low passes, winds will become northerly with a cold front moving through the area.
335 PM PST Fri Dec 16 2016 Freezing temperatures in the valley this weekend with dry conditions. Mins expected to drop at or a little below freezing Sat morning in the Vly and lower foothills with the coldest nite expected to be Sat nite/Sun morning.
13 inches since this morning; however, the moisture was primarily confined to the lowest levels beneath a strong ridge located near 765 mb. Winds were southerly in the lowest levels, and then southwest to west- southwest throughout the remainder of the column.
An arctic cold front will arrive at KABI and KSJT towards the end of the forecast period, with strong north winds following the front. The main stories on Saturday will be a strong Arctic cold front that will approach the forecast area and unseasonably warm temperatures ahead of the front. The aforementioned cold front will move into the northern Big Country by early to mid afternoon, then approach the northern Concho Valley by 6 PM. As the cold front approaches during the afternoon, temperatures will quickly fall 20 to 30 degrees behind the front and north winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts.
The cold front associated with the upper trough settling over northern Utah attm has now worked south and just passed through KCDC over the last hour. Have seen the high wind threat taper across the southwest over the last few hours as the frontal boundary sagged into the area. A vort max associated with the H5 trough axis is just now entering northwestern Utah and will cross the north through the early morning hours.
Chances for any light freezing rain or drizzle in the far ne are low but never the less there. Model consensus continues to be ho hum about the potential for light freezing rain across NE Georgia, but with overrunning moisture expected around midnight tonight, could see a few hours where light freezing rain/drizzle could accumulate. Of concern will be the lower elevations/valleys where cold air will pool and remain out of the warm nose aloft. Still advertising accumulations of freezing rain of mere hundredths (0. The area of concern remains to be the Blue Ridge to Jasper to Gainesville area. With limited accumulations, have opted not to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory, but instead for a strongly worded SPS to highlight the potential for impacts due to a light glaze.
540 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Based on reports around the area there has been freezing drizzle for the area south of Interstate 80 this afternoon. The freezing drizzle has been slowly pushing to the north this afternoon. Expect the freezing drizzle to continue to spread to the north during the evening. The area where the greatest accumulation of freezing drizzle will be in the east where it will last the longest. A cold front will move through the area during the evening and turn winds to the north and start to increase. As the colder air moves into the area the freezing drizzle will give way to snow. The freezing drizzle will continue to move to the north this evening and will gradually end from southwest to northeast during the evening hours.
Held back precip by several hours as it is evident that it will take some time for the lowest levels to become saturated. Previous forecast had a few hours of light freezing drizzle/rain in for portions of NETN and SWVA, this update all but removes any frozen precip due to delay in onset of precip. However, an isolated pocket of light freezing drizzle still possible for an hour or two in the aforementioned ares before switching to rain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 62 43 47 / 60 70 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 60 42 48 / 50 50 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 37 60 40 44 / 60 60 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 60 45 51 / 30 40 70 90 TN.
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Very quiet weather expected in the short term, as high pressure drifts eastward across the upper Great Lakes. More of a southwest breeze on Sunday will set up, resulting in lows tonight a bit warmer, but still mainly in the mid 40s, cooler near the Indiana border. Sunday looking quite nice as well, a bit warmer as highs reach the lower 70s.
210 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will yield dry and cool weather through Sunday. Highs on Sunday will rebound into the low to mid 60s. Better rebound in temps over wrn zones tied to emerging warm advection yet all warmer than today. Aggressive thermal ridge builds through mid week. peaking Wed ahead of upper trough shifting ewd through cntrl Canada and in advance of surface cold front sweeping through the lakes. As in previous days will again modify mid week temps warmer per favored guidance blend. VFR conditions to persist as high pressure drifts overhead.
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 A mid-level trough centered from Ontario to the lower Ohio Valley early this morning will continue east today with building upstream heights from the northern High Plains to mid Missouri Valley. Other than high temperatures a few degrees cooler on the poleward side, this boundary will have little impact on sensible weather.
432 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure will gradually clear skies this evening as it builds in from the west.
There could be a few showers developing across northern Nevada during the week as low pressure approaches.
At 12z Saturday a 500mb trough was located across Baja California. At the surface a high pressure ridge axis extended from southwest Oklahoma to Missouri and a surface to 850mb trough of low pressure was located over eastern Colorado. Over the Northern Plains earlier this morning a cold front/stationary front extended from northeast Wyoming to northern Iowa. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight dipping to around 50 degrees.
A more autumnal air mass is strongly inbound during the early morning on the heels of yesterday's cold front. The resulting nearly full sunshine might help with a degree or two of temperature boost over guidance, or at least make it feel a little warmer against a well mixed wind gusting to around 25 mph by late morning. Upstream observations early this morning show temperatures making it easily into the mid and upper 30s over the Midwest, even before diurnal mins, which supports the low end of temperature guidance for SE Michigan tonight.
High pressure was building into the forecast area at 19Z with dry air eroding some of the cloud cover. The high pressure will drift east of the region Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds will hold off until afternoon when the pressure gradient tightens up between the departing high and low pressure in south central Canada.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show cyclonic flow over the western Great Lakes, between high pressure centered over central Canada, and low pressure over James Bay. As high pressure builds into area late tonight, cloud cover trends and temps are the main forecast concerns. High pressure will build into the area overnight, promoting good radiational cooling conditions with the clearing skies outside of Vilas county. High pressure will be centered over the area.
342 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Upper level trough expected to bring rain chances to most of the Panhandles evident on regional Water Vapor satellite imagery south of Arizona/New Mexico. The moisture plume associated with this trough has already spread over the Panhandles with echoes starting to be evident on local radar. Storms will be on the decline Sunday afternoon/evening as the upper trough becomes more positively tilted and starts to move east of the area.
309 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure centered right over the Missouri Ozarks resulted in fabulous weather conditions today. This high will slowly slide southeast of the region tonight and Sunday resulting in a slow return to southerly winds. Lows tonight will dip into the lower to middle 40s, with upper 30s possible across the eastern Ozarks. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower 70s.
Some light rain will also be possible in the far northeastern counties at least during the morning as a weak vort on the backside of the upper low lingers in the area. With the cold high pressure continuing over the area and clouds, highs today should stay in the 40s.
With high pressure overhead and reinforcing high pressure slipping in tonight, will have a very quiet short term period.
339 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High impact weather potential: None Broad upper trough across the NC US with cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes. Trough is moving east with axis expected to move through MI late tonight/Sunday morning.
Current observations show the cold front draped from Randolph county down to Marengo County. The highs for the day are still expected to be 90s in the southeast and high 70s in the northwest. Winds have picked up due to the combined effect of the cold front and Matthew tracking to our northeast. Tonight as the cold front continues to push southeast and daytime heating begins to wane, temps will quickly drop as cold air advection and radiational cooling will then be the dominate factor in the environment. Obs show brisk northerlies caused by the tight gradient between the cold front and Matthew who is to our far east. The remainder of the area will see relative humidities drop into the lower 30s this afternoon with the same gusty winds.
Upper level flow will be zonal for today and become more southwest tonight as a trough develops to the west. 850 mb temperatures will be noticeably warmer and allow highs to reach the 70s today.
The high pressure to our N/NW begins to shift E/NE and at the same time Hurricane Matthew is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Cyclone.
Readings this afternoon averaged in the lower 70s while southerly winds were near 10 mph. Lows tonight are a few degrees warmer in the middle 40s with highs tomorrow recovering to the low 70s.
The flow aloft over our area will become southwesterly as an upper level ridge shifts east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. With light winds and drier low-level air filtering south across the eastern part of our area, radiational cooling may allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s for lows in some of the low-lying areas and river valleys.