Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 900 am overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts the center of a regional scale middle and upper anticyclone is positioned near 27 N 72 W. Closer to the Keys, a middle and upper level low pressure continues to stretch out into a trough axis from Southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. Thereafter, the winds become more west southwesterly, which will be more favorable for cumulus line convection in the lower and middle keys during the late afternoon and thru the evening. A high pressure ridge will remain across the Straits of Florida and Cuba today thru this evening.
1119 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the area today behind a cool front. Additional isolated- scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms may linger into this afternoon/early evening across extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio based on the track of the upper low. A potent upper level low/associated 50 knot jet streak will sink southeastward towards the east coast through tonight. As a result, the CWA will be under cyclonic flow aloft/CAA, with the cold front drifting southeastward through the day. The best forcing for precipitation is in the morning, then we are under large scale subsidence with the building ridge aloft. In the wake of the surface cold front, which is at the doorstep of our western CWA as of 08z, we'll see cooler and less humid conditions.
High pressure currently over the upper midwest and Ontario shifts south over the region.
The area of low pressure centered just off the Oregon coast will slowly drop south today while the high pressure remains to our south.
911 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
An upper level low will drift south off the Pacific Northwest coast through Friday. The low will remain close enough to the area to keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast each day.
630 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 With the cool front moving off to the east and south, surface ridging will build into the area for the day. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday, but still expecting warm temps in the middle 80s in the north to lower 90s in the southwest and southeast IL. Fair weather expected tonight as NE winds continue to filter in drier/less humid air into Friday as weak high pressure 1019 mb settles into the Great Lakes on Friday. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s as northeast winds diminish to 5-10 mph after sunset. Strong upper level ridge already building northward into the Midwest on Friday, and will bring dry weather to the area through this Father's Day weekend.
Much like yesterday confidence is somewhat reduced due to questions in the degree of mixing but even with less mixing low level raw temperatures would suggest a 15 degree plus spread from the lower 80s NE to mid 90s SW.
Overall pattern will remain unchanged under the nose of an upper ridge. /issued 358 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ UA ridging continues to dominate across the central CONUS and thus also the Four-State region early this morning, which has aided in keeping precipitation at bay. It is the Central Plains that is experiencing showers and thunderstorms as noted by an MCS across SE KS and SW MO, that was sparked by a weakness rounding the UA ridge. Computer models show the MCS waning in the coming hours and remaining to our North, though this embedded weakness is anticipated to translate South across the region late this week/early this weekend, whilst the center of the UA ridge retrogrades to across the Desert SW.
933 AM MST THU JUN 16 2016 The large Pacific low pressure system along the west coast that had kept afternoon temperatures below normal for the past six days will weaken today.
1224 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure over Newfoundland will continue to move slowly east through Friday. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the region through the weekend with much warmer weather.
704 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 A strengthening area of high pressure should lead to an extended stretch of warm temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and dry conditions today through the weekend.
1146 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Weak low pressure over the Great lakes will track southeast to the North Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure builds in from the north for the weekend and the start of the new week.
Much of the day should be VFR with some scattered cu however, thunderstorms may develop late in the day and into the night as a cold front builds into the region.
Winds will become NW late in the TAF as cold front approaches from the north.
A cold front will cross the area tonight supporting a few showers and thunderstorms. Other forcing was produced by a mid level warm front working into northeast Montana overnight. High temperatures will be warmer today over western and central zones with less cloud cover. The east will also be slightly cooler behind a weak cold front.
912 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Fast westerly steering flow along with PWATS close to 2 inches and Max Temps reaching into the lower to middle 90s will trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms with the best coverage across the I-10 Corridor and along the FL/GA border.
0 deg this morning which the models indicate will cool about another degree C this afternoon as mid level trough aloft moves toward the nrn peninsula. Should see development of shower/storms across nrn areas ahead of a fairly strong mid level s/w trough that models swing SE across the nrn peninsula into the late afternoon hours. Will continue POPs in the high scattered range for much of the area. High temps on track around 90 to the lower 90s with offshore flow.
That is, by the time decent mixing happens from heating today, a moist layer that is too deep in the models may be resulting in the high dew points. High temperatures today from the decent heating should vary from the mid 80s in southwest MN to the low or mid 90s along the Missouri River. Lows tonight will be significantly warmer than the current night, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Afternoon convection should primarily remain focused along a north south inverted trough over central SD later in the day.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge extending from Texas to the Great Lakes with a low over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered off to the east and winds were from the southeast. The southern portion of the upper ridge will shift westward during this period resulting in slight height falls over east Texas. The low level flow will remain southeasterly and there will be no significant change in the weather.
Low pressure will produce clouds and scattered showers today along with cooler temperatures.
1223 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Weak low pressure over the Great lakes will track southeast to the North Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure builds in from the north for the weekend and the start of the new week.
1256 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Hydro Low pressure will produce clouds and scattered showers today along with cooler temperatures.
Mostly clear skies are then expected overnight and Friday under high pressure. Cyclonic flow around the low will bring low clouds through the area today into this evening, before moving out of the area later tonight. 925 mb temperature fields from short term models support highs in the lower to middle 70s.
1026 AM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure continues with clear skies and warm temperatures. An upper level ridge over the central part of the country will keep a warm and dry southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Temperatures will be similar to a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Airmass will be very dry again with a few afternoon cumulus clouds possible over the higher terrain, otherwise clear skies are expected to prevail through tonight. a weak southwesterly flow will be over CO with the ridge centered over southern NM.
A few showers possible near airports late this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front sinks southward.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 900 am overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts the center of a regional scale middle and upper anticyclone is positioned near 27 N 72 W. Closer to the Keys, a middle and upper level low pressure continues to stretch out into a trough axis from Southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. Thereafter, the winds become more west southwesterly, which will be more favorable for cumulus line convection in the lower and middle keys during the late afternoon and thru the evening. A high pressure ridge will remain across the Straits of Florida and Cuba today thru this evening. Winds could allow for cloud development over the Lower Keys, then moving northeast affecting MTH in the afternoon producing showers and reduction to the visibility.
1246 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 A mid-level trough will move through the Great Lakes late night and Thursday, with a weak cold front moving through the Ohio Valley early Thursday. Another area of high pressure will move across the region Thursday night into Friday. Also, the low level convergence with the front is very weak. Expect highs to range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. Expect lows from the lower 20s northwest to the mid 20s southeast.
a dissipating cold front boundary is stalling across Central Florida and will continue to slowly drift into South Florida through Thursday. Current NW winds will veer to the NE behind the front on Thursday, with some cold air advection bringing cooler temps into the region.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer given the flow, but will be warmest in the SE half of the CWA where lower 50s will be the story.
Front will be dry and help to funnel in cooler air behind it.
A weak cold front will push across the forecast area Thursday, with conditions generally improving to VFR Thursday afternoon.
VFR conditions expected with the only weather note being a cold front that will switch winds out of the north late this morning.
This could lead to either freezing sprinkles/freezing drizzle or sleet. The final caveat is the potentially cold ground that could support freezing of supercooled liquid with surface air temperatures hovering at 32-33 degrees.
435 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure returns tonight through Friday.
High pressure will then track across the Central Plains on Thursday shifting winds around to the southwest. Friday and Friday night look dry at the time under the influence of high pressure. Models continue to try and keep temperatures too cool on Thursday, with more snow melt occurring today and 925mb and 850mb temperatures remaining above freezing. Slightly cooler air moves in Friday with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
1147 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 MVFR ceilings continue to impact IAH and terminals south this evening, with at least temporary drops into IFR category by sunrise as additional cooling occurs and a cold front sweeps across the region. The cold front stretched from Carlsbad, NM to Shreveport as of 03Z, clearing the coast by sunrise.
in part thanks to a fairly dry atmospheric profile in the lower layers of the atmosphere. which could actually transition light snow back to some light freezing rain or drizzle.
Weak ridge in mainly zonal flow aloft will bring dry weather with clear to partly cloudy skies. Upper trough digs south on Friday as it moves inland from the Pacific.
Wet roads and sidewalks may become slippery later tonight as temperatures fall below freezing.
Temperatures are warmer and with the exception of the north end of the valley dewpoints are higher this evening.
Southwesterly winds at the surface will help temperatures recover quite nicely from the current teens and 20s back up to near the freezing mark again today.
400 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure builds into the region Friday.
Warm advection under that ridge will drive Friday temperature a few degrees above the seasonal averages.
Although the flow will be fairly strong, much drier air filtering southward into the area behind an advancing cold front pushing into Oklahoma will hinder precip chances through much of the period. Colder temperatures are likely tonight as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures to around 0C. However, the cooler air mass will be slow to erode so highs may struggle to reach the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon. Drier conditions are then likely across western Kansas through the early part of the weekend as weak upper level ridging moves out of the Rockies and across the Western High Plains. More significant precip chances return late in the weekend as a strong upper level trough of low pressure digs southeast across the Great Basin, then turns eastward into the Central and Southern Rockies.
Fast upper flow across the northern states has brought the latest modified cold front through all but southeast portions of the area today. Water vapor imagery showing the persistent upper low off Baja beginning to move east. Appears cloud cover will be mainly limited to some cirrus tonight with increasing and thickening high cloud Thursday with very dry mid level airmass working in with the Pacific anticyclone following the front. At the onset of precipitation the surface temperatures might be below freezing therefore keeping everything frozen. Through out the day warm air advection should bring temperatures above freezing changing everything over to rain.
An upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic tonight followed by broad ridging over the Plains beginning to build into the region. Highs today range from the lower/mid 60s inland to the upper 60s close to the coast. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland with a few cooler spots to the lower 50s at the coast.
324 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 Warmer temperature can be expected for the holiday weekend. Warm advection under that ridge will drive Friday temperature a few degrees above the seasonal averages.
The last of the low clouds finally burnt off by early afternoon and have been replaced by mid to high level clouds. Warm air advection ahead of the next short wave trof has produced extensive clouds east of the Mississippi River. An active zonal upper flow pattern will push another short wave trof north of Alabama this weekend. An upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will keep the showers confined to areas north of I-20.
A progressive PV anomaly will slide across portions of IA and northern IL this evening into tonight, helping to push a surface cold front southeast through the region. Surface cold front has pushed into portions of northwest MO this afternoon and will quickly push southeast through the region this evening into tonight. Despite the frontal passage, the airmass behind the boundary really will not be much cooler, thus lows should only dip into the mid and upper 20s tonight (likely held up by some post-frontal cloud cover).
Made a quick forecast update to remove precipitation chances for the lower Rio Grande Valley, along the coast, and offshore for today. To that extent, dry weather will prevail today and tonight for a vast majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as weak 500 mb high pressure south of the region briefly reigns. However, generally isolated convection will reenter the forecast for the inland area on Wednesday as lingering deep tropical moisture combines with daytime heating and weak mid- level troughiness along the Texas coastline. Throughout the entire short term forecast period, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over the lower Texas coastal waters, where generally scattered convection is forecast due to better available moisture and dynamics there.
High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday, which is expected to keep the region dry. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s in north central WI to the lower to middle 50s east.
247 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 (Issued 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: Cold front has shifted southeast of the area, with gusty west to northwest winds across the area. Lows are forecast in the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s most other areas. High pressure moving into the region Wednesday will bring a pleasant day, before moving east of the region Wednesday night. Highs should reach the middle 70s in most areas, with lows Wednesday night in the lower to middle 50s.
Have made some tweaks to near-term PoPs, mainly focusing the higher-end chance PoPs across northwestern and western GA, where moisture and progged instability are maximized. /Issued 405 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021/ Persistent upper level ridging that has kept the area dry the last few days has broken down and shifted eastward allowing moisture to return to the area.
Quieter weather is forecast for the remainder of the Short Term period (Wednesday-Wednesday Night) as the front dissolves and a new leeside trough develops across eastern Colorado.
(This evening through Wednesday) The cold front in Kansas will shift toward the Oklahoma border this evening. Higher chances of storms will be with storms rolling off the High Plains of Colorado this evening and moving east-southeast toward northwestern Oklahoma.
Temperatures will be just a bit warmer than last night with lows in the lower 40s west to the lower 50s east. A mainly dry cold front moves into the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds that will be gusty for a few hours after the front passes through.
339 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front moved through the region dragging an area of showers in tow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front. The cooler air behind the front sets up for a fairly nice day Wednesday with highs only reaching the lower 80s. Southerly flow returns as the remnants of Hurricane Nicolas scamper off to the east enabling warmer and more moist air to advect northward keeping summer time vibes around for the next several days. A cold front is marching SE across northern MO with some scattered showers in tow.
135 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front will move through northeast Montana tomorrow bringing strong winds and low afternoon humidity. Much cooler conditions will follow the front with Canadian high pressure pushing south and ushering in more fall-like temperatures.
(This evening through Wednesday) Mostly clear, warm and dry the next 24 hours with weak northwest flow aloft and weak ridging at the surface. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday around 90. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Hot and dry will continue to be the story for the end of the week and through the weekend, thanks to the upper-level ridge building in across the southern Plains. High temperatures will steadily return to the mid to upper 90s as an 850mb thermal ridge also builds across west Texas over the next few days.
228 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Pleasant conditions will continue through today with northwesterly flow and high pressure building into the area. Drier air has worked into the region behind yesterday's cold front, but winds are forecast to remain relatively light, thus preventing any fire weather concerns this afternoon. Mid to upper level flow will also strengthen with an upper level low advancing east across Canada. Behind Wednesday's front, a return to cooler temperatures is expected across the area to close out the work week.
123 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east of the Northern Plains with short wave ridge building into the Northern Rockies. Next upper trof is moving into BC. At the surface, high pressure is centered over western SD/NEB. Upper trof currently over BC will track quickly across southern Canada on Wednesday, with a prefrontal trof moving across northeast WY and western SD during the day. Thermal ridge overhead will result in temps climbing well into the 80s on the Plains with some lower 90s likely. NBM temps likely too cool and have sided closer to the warmer MOS guidance.
500 mb geopotential heights will begin to drop after today as we undergo a pattern change along the West Coast with an approaching trough.
Hires models show convection along approaching cold front weakens as it crosses Lake Erie after midnight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Bulk of guidance tracks surface cold front from the northwest edge of the forecast area at 12Z Wed to the southeast corner by evening. Given the low FFG values and above normal soil moisture, this amount of rain over a short duration could result in some flooding issues. A good deal of pre-frontal sunshine should push temperatures into the mid 80s across the Lower Susq Valley, while an earlier arrival of clouds/showers and post-frontal flow results in a significantly cooler day further north and west with highs around 70F.
155 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 [Through 18Z Wednesday] Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the east coast sea breeze will push west of the I-95 corridor over the next couple hours, approaching the highway 301 corridor around 18z then the I-75 corridor around 20z. The region will be between an inverted trough to the east southeast, and Tropical Cyclone Nicholas over the western Gulf coast Today. Moisture associated with trough to the east will move into area in the onshore flow Today, with precipitation chances increasing across eastern and southern counties through the day. The inverted trough will continue to develop into an area of low pressure to the east southeast on Wednesday. A warm front extending east from remnants of Nicholas will be a source of lift to support increasing precipitation chances.
235 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 An upper-level trough over the region will continue to propagate to the east into the overnight hours helping high pressure build overhead. As high pressure moves in, skies will clear out helping low temperatures drop into the low 40s to low 50s. High pressure will continue tomorrow, providing mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.
223 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken over the next couple of days as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Even with this low level moisture increase, deep layer moisture is still lacking with PWATs just above an inch across the forecast area. Surface and upper ridge offshore will weaken a bit as moisture increases from the Gulf coast region ahead of the remnants of tropical storm Nicholas. CAM models suggest sea breeze front may be a possible trigger and weak short wave troughs possibly lifting north from Ga.
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Weak upper level troughing will setup over the eastern U. during the second half of week then over the weekend we'll see ridging build back over the area. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure that has brought our easterly flow for the last few days will weaken as an area of low pressure takes shape north of the Bahamas and the remnants of Nicholas meander over the southern Mississippi Valley.
A broad ridge will begin to build over the nation's midsection through the end of the week.
A cold front to the NW continues to approach central Indiana as of late this afternoon. For Wednesday, expect some showers/storms to linger in the morning across south central Indiana while drier/slightly cooler air filters in from the NW. Aloft, ridging to the SE will help to keep a mostly dry forecast for the end of this week while heat and relatively humid conditions return this weekend.
245 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in an area of convergence between Tropical Storm Nicholas and a strong area of high pressure over the Carolinas and Georgia. The weak trough axis mentioned earlier today continues to move east into western Tennessee at this time as well.