Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weakness aloft that has been over the area and giving us all the rains is moving out and we are looking for ridging aloft to become established tonight into tomorrow. /issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows mid level ridging centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico moving and building to the west. Rua There is good agreement that the mid level ridge will continue to work to the west and be centered basically over the forecast area through the weekend into the holiday.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting eastward across western Kansas. The early July sun will help warm temperatures up rapidly during the day, but with a cooler boundary layer from the departing airmass, afternoon max temperatures will be below normal. As the low level jet increases and with a return of higher theta-e air, elevated thunderstorms should be possible along the Oklahoma/Kansas border from Clark to Barber counties sometime Saturday night.
Proton Previous Discussion: With a ridge of high pressure building into the region from the west, the weather for NE Montana will shift to a warmer and drier pattern. The exiting Canadian Plains low pressure system could still sneak a few rain showers over our far NE corner zone late tonight, but should be minimal if any at all, based on best model consensus.
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Showers associated with cold front at the far eastern forecast area boundary and should clear our region in the next hour. There has been some shower and weak thunder development over the far eastern FA, but so far the high resolution models have been overdone with their pcpn coverage depiction. This will bring down some cooler 500mb temps as well, which could lead to additional shower development in the afternoon, which would mainly be along and north of the highway 2 corridor.
Exception to this might be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a line of convection presently to our nw swinging thru cntrl and ern portions of the Highland Rim District this evening. Upper level troughing will become more enhanced as Sat progresses also, and with this in mind, and diurnal heating influences kicking in after 01/15Z, generally went with a crescendoing shwr/tstm chances thru the morning hrs.
1100 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Northwest flow aloft will be over the area with a large high pressure ridge to the west. As the high pressure ridge begins to shift east Saturday, temperatures will warm. Isolated showers may from over the higher mountains of the north. The ridge will continue moving east Saturday night with a weak low pressure trough from the Pacific moving into Idaho and western Montana.
a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions tonight.
544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper-level analysis reveals a departing trough exiting the Rocky Mountain states into the high plains this Friday afternoon. Behind this trough, slightly below seasonal average temperatures have filtered in from the north. On Saturday, weak short-term ridging aloft will move over the forecast region. A few dry thunderstorms may materialize along the higher terrain of the San Juans and southern Divide, however coverage will be very low and most of the CWA will remain dry.
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A mid-level vort is still helping to spark some showers across the central/south as a secondary frontolytic cold front is helping to spark some thundershowers heading into our central/north.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 71 89 / 40 70 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 84 68 87 / 30 60 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 85 68 87 / 40 60 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 84 66 85 / 30 60 60 30.
1209 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. MVFR ceilings are then expected near daybreak Saturday as the cold front approaches.
/issued 317 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ After the widespread triple digits yesterday, a convectively aided cold front that moved into the area this morning has helped to keep the South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle in the 80s and 90s this afternoon. Saturday should start cloudy, though a gradual return to sun is expected during the afternoon as the front begins to lift back northward as a warm front. This front may provide a minimal thunder chance through the day, though CI is more certain over the higher terrain of eastern NM.
In addition, some patchy fog is also possible, with vsbys briefly near the high end of MVFR at times overnight amidst light southerly to near calm winds. The weakness aloft that has been over the area and giving us all the rains is moving out and we are looking for ridging aloft to become established tonight into tomorrow. /issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows mid level ridging centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico moving and building to the west. Rua There is good agreement that the mid level ridge will continue to work to the west and be centered basically over the forecast area through the weekend into the holiday.
Cold front currently across the southern Texas Panhandle will move south to the Pecos River by 01/12z. /issued 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ An upper ridge will be over, or near, the region through the next 7 days, and will ensure we stay at or above normal temperatures for this time of year. A cold front stretching from southeastern New Mexico, eastward to the Red River could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and tonight, if not along a dryline which extends from the western Low Rolling Plains southward across the eastern Permian Basin.
Showers associated with cold front at the far eastern forecast area boundary and should clear our region in the next hour. There has been some shower and weak thunder development over the far eastern FA, but so far the high resolution models have been overdone with their pcpn coverage depiction. This will bring down some cooler 500mb temps as well, which could lead to additional shower development in the afternoon, which would mainly be along and north of the highway 2 corridor.
Surface map at 18Z shows a ridge of high pressure situated to our east with a cold front approaching the Ohio Valley to our northwest.
A weak Pacific short wave trough will develop isolated thunderstorms in our CWA Saturday afternoon and evening, already in the forecast.
1100 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper-level analysis reveals a departing trough exiting the Rocky Mountain states into the high plains this Friday afternoon. Behind this trough, slightly below seasonal average temperatures have filtered in from the north. On Saturday, weak short-term ridging aloft will move over the forecast region. A few dry thunderstorms may materialize along the higher terrain of the San Juans and southern Divide, however coverage will be very low and most of the CWA will remain dry.
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure will remain over the area this evening. Currently, we remain under northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and troughing to our east. Upper level low over northern Manitoba rotating S/WV impulses through our region, with one of these embedded vorticity maximums responsible for the extensive low/mid level clouds over central and eastern areas of the state today. Feel more confident western and south central areas will be on the cooler side. Daytime highs will warm with WAA west and south into the low/mid 80s thanks to upper level ridging shifting east into the Rockies.
/issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows mid level ridging centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico moving and building to the west. Rua There is good agreement that the mid level ridge will continue to work to the west and be centered basically over the forecast area through the weekend into the holiday.
740 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
519 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern Rockies, with a cold front east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Dakotas, with high amplitude ridge along the west coast. After the cooler weather of late this week, temperatures will rise over the weekend as ridge to the west shifts east over the Rockies. Highs each day will be back in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the plains, with some 70s across the higher Black Hills.
519 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow aloft continues Saturday night with an upper ridge over the Rockies. These winds draw moisture northward into the High Plains.
742 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front on Saturday. This will be enhanced by an H5 short wave trough that will swing slowly through the area through the nighttime, increasing the risk of showers and thunderstorms from W-E everywhere overnight, however the best overlay of instability, moisture flow, and persistent lift will be across the counties of NW PA. Fries The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. MVFR ceilings are then expected near daybreak Saturday as the cold front approaches.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 71 89 / 50 70 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 68 87 / 40 60 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 68 87 / 50 60 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 66 85 / 30 60 60 30.
1057 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern Rockies, with a cold front east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Dakotas, with high amplitude ridge along the west coast. After the cooler weather of late this week, temperatures will rise over the weekend as ridge to the west shifts east over the Rockies. Highs each day will be back in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the plains, with some 70s across the higher Black Hills.
926 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A cold front will approach the region tonight into Saturday providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
1122 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough swinging through western Nebraska this afternoon will move east of the area by this evening. Lows tonight very close to previous forecast from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
Light flow in the low to mid levels and deep moisture will allow the east and west coast sea breezes to move toward the interior this evening where the highest coverage of showers/storms are expected.
High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over the forecast area through this weekend.
231 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A broad upper low over Oklahoma is kicking off scattered convection across southern parts of KS and MO with more isolated activity further north into our area. The best storm coverage through the evening will remain in closer proximity to the upper low, generally south of US 50, although very isolated showers and a few storms are possible as far north as the Iowa border. Any storms north of I-70 should die off quickly after dark, while a few showers could continue overnight south of I-70 due to the presence of the upper low. Sunday will be a near repeat performance of today as the upper low makes slow eastward progress into the Ozarks, with perhaps a bit more storm coverage across areas south of I-70.
352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A substantial s/wv near CO/NE border will drop south into an existing weak weak upper low across the Panhandles through tonight.
318 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Isolated to scattered activity has persisted over the past few hours in deepening moisture north of weak upper low over the southern Plains. Should see a general decrease in activity with loss of heating this evening, though could see some showers and perhaps some thunder into the overnight hours and precip nearer the low. Will continue with chance in the south nearer the low but not confident on coverage. Models are consistent with slight warming in the low levels with northern areas more likely to see the warmer temps in better insolation.
349 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be coverage of storms related to the cold front tonight/Sunday and if any other storms will form in the warm sector ahead of the front. The 12Z upper air maps from this morning had closed h5 low pressure centered over Saskatchewan with a trough into the central part of the country extending southward with another weaker closed low centered over northern Texas. A weak ridge was still around 110deg west longitude and also around 90deg west. The cooler air at h7 was over Canada with a dip in the isotherms southward into the western High Plains. 1 to 4 deg C h7 dewpoints were pooled ahead of the trough. The latest surface analysis and metars has the cold front from near Yankton to Ord and east of McCook.
253 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move east tonight. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes.
339 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon mainly along the seabreeze now east of I-45 and starting to develop along the Highway 59 corridor southwest of Richmond. Active storms over West and North-Central Texas this afternoon in association with the slow moving upper low near KFDR. Storms that are going on across TX not lining up well with most of the higher res modeling and hence confidence is lower on how this plays out overnight. Thinking the general trend should be southeastward as the upper low detaches and drifts towards SETX.
341 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 In the wake of a diffuse upper low spinning near Childress, light northerly flow had overspread much of the Caprock within a sheared trough. Apparent mesohigh and stable layer south of the upper low has kept much of our Rolling Plains' counties void of agitated Cu fields thus far, but recent satellite and LAPS data indicate the CAPE minimum in this region is slowly eroding. As the upper low initially near Childress drifts through western Oklahoma on Sunday, a shearing low (presently along the CO/KS border) will dive south in its wake.
153 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure moves slowly east.
High pressure will provide warm and dry conditions across the state with highs reaching 90 degrees in many spots on Sunday.
430 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Storm coverage should continue to gradually increase over the eastern part of the forecast area until early evening when lift from the upper level short wave trough and weak convergence from the low level jet will shift southwest. skies are a msunny/psunny mix as an upper low/frontal boundary resides over the area. precipitation continues to taper off thru 06z Sunday with the entire upper low/surface boundary complex shifting well east of the region. Looking for skies to become partly cloudy after 06z Sunday and wind becoming light as strong H5/H7 ridging begins to nose into the Plains region. Looking for above normal highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 80s which will be off of overnight lows in the 50s.
A trough of low pressure will move across the region on Sunday bringing some cooler air. By late in the week a stronger trough may bring some precipitation to the mountains and northern areas. Water vapor imagery indicates a weak upper level disturbance moving into the Great Basin as a much deeper area of low pressure spins west of the Queen Charlotte's. The Great Basin disturbance is progged to move east of the area on Sunday then models keep a very typical for June, trough of low pressure well west of the coast and high pressure building over the Rockies.
The upper ridge over the region will break down as an upper level trough starts to move in. At this point chances for severe storms look to be on the low side for the short term period given unimpressive convective energy and wind shear.
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A rather summer-like pattern is in place across the region today, characterized by upper level ridging and weak mid level flow. A weak, disorganized trough will push east across Texas and Oklahoma today, with several small vort maxima expected to lift through the region. Sunday looks quite similar to today, as the disorganized upper level trough moves across the Arklatex. By Sunday night, a stronger trough digging across the eastern Great Lakes will push a cold front through the area from northeast to southwest, which will (somewhat slowly) force drier air into the area along with rising surface pressure.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will move in overnight and into Sunday morning as the upper closed low over TX inches towards the region.
skies are a msunny/psunny mix as an upper low/frontal boundary resides over the area. precipitation continues to taper off thru 06z Sunday with the entire upper low/surface boundary complex shifting well east of the region. Looking for skies to become partly cloudy after 06z Sunday and wind becoming light as strong H5/H7 ridging begins to nose into the Plains region. Looking for above normal highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 80s which will be off of overnight lows in the 50s.
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the afternoon and evening, as a boundary to the south wobbles north a bit, and upper level low approaches from west Texas. Currently weak high pressure is off to the east of AR, and a light east to southeast wind is into AR. To the southwest, an area of light convection was gradually rotating around an upper low pressure system, and will affect southwest to west AR this morning.
Coastal trough near 42019 coming onshore around Freeport to Pasadena. This should help to focus storms this morning in the coastal counties then trough lifts northward this afternoon.
The low cigs and vsbys are expected to remain south of the GUY site.
339 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Upper low across far eastern CO/wrn KS in concert with a westward moving outflow boundary triggered a round of showers and thunderstorms across the southeast plains early this afternoon. Expect this to continue into the early evening hours with best forcing near the KS border where vort energy continues to wrap around back side of the slowly departing upper low. except near the eastern border where isolated activity may linger until around midnight in closer proximity to the departing upper low. Sunday will be a drier day for most areas as the upper ridge translates eastward over the region. Warming temperatures aloft associated with the ridge also cuts down on CAPE so main storm threats will be brief heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds and lightning.
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Quiet and warm weather can be expected today with high pressure.
High res models including the HRRR are lifting showers into W GA and NW GA in the early morning hours on Sunday along the leading edge of this deeper moisture plume that shifts our way as the broad trof located over the NE states starts to pull away. Good news is that high temps will be kept in the lower to middle 80s on sunday with all the clouds.
255 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over western portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Northern Rockies. With high pressure over the area, winds are variable and mostly on the lighter side. Warm and pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend as the ridge slowly slides east into the high plains. Highs on Sunday will be slightly warmer than today, 80s and lower 90s.
650 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move east tonight. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes.
Aloft, we have an upper low along the Red River OK/TX border lifting to the northeast towards the area with upper energy ejecting into the area out of the low with weak surface flow.
226 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Low pressure aloft over New Brunswick this evening will shift east later today and allow high pressure to pass just to our south tonight into Sunday.
651 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Low pressure aloft over New Brunswick this evening will shift east later today and allow high pressure to pass just to our south tonight into Sunday.
High pressure will remain in place through tonight.
332 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 The RAP model and Satellite indicate the upper low across Nern Colo will drop south this evening. It would appear this process is occurring as a the upper low across Srn Canada moves east toward the Great Lakes. Once the upper low moves south late this evening, rain chances will end. High pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into up into the Rockies though the end of the week. This spells weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridging across our area.
There is some modest diffluence aloft in the 300mb flow amid weak troughing, however, weaker shear values and a layer of warm air at 700mb, per model soundings over Zapata county, may limit thunderstorm maintenance and growth as it progresses eastward.
Dry weather will return later Sunday night into much of the upcoming week with cooler conditions and highs back into the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon will reach into the lower to mid 80s. Better chc of storms Sunday as shrtwv and associated sfc trof move across the area during peak heating. Given moist airmass with precip water >1" Sunday and sfc trof nearly parallel to mid level flow as it moves slowly across the area, also is some potential for training causing locally heavy rainfall, mainly across srn portions of the cwa.
106 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to extend across the region today. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes.
(Sunday night through next Saturday) By Sunday evening, the weak upper level trough axis will be just east of the area. The upper trough continues to slowly move east to start the work week, and PoPs will continue to trend downward as a result as temperatures begin to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Warmer for Sunday but much less wind. A reinforced shot of cooler air moves into the state in the form of a surface cold front, which is forecast to enter northwestern ND by/before daybreak and sweep southeast across the state today. This front will be associated with a stacked surface and upper level low moving southeast out of northern Saskatchewan, moving into central Manitoba by this evening. A mild pacific airmass moves in from the west tonight with upper level ridging building in and a mild high pressure system moving in bringing lighter winds and lows in the low to mid 50s. Upper level ridging continues through Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s across western and central North Dakota.