Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
450 AM Update A cold front moves through our area Monday, but the deeper moisture will well east by the time it moves through.
Weak surface ridging is present today across Central Alabama on the dry side for the most part of Bonnie. Some isolated mainly afternoon showers are possible, but definitely not enough to cancel any plans as overall weak ridging will still be present.
A cold front will then approach the region late week. The models have really been struggling to pin down the rainfall today though the general consensus regarding the eventual track of the low is slow and meandering over the area through tonight. We have thus far held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch since the area of strongest deformation on the western side of the low is shrinking and the upper level dynamics are slightly weakening. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated tstms may persist into tonight as the low meanders over the area.
41 Another quiet surface map this morning with weak high pressure over SE Texas allowing for light winds. Capping from the elevated mixed layer is not as strong but still some weak subsidence from ridging aloft.
Upper level ridging will continue to build in for the end of the Memorial Day holiday and beginning of the next work week. Memorial Day should be fairly nice, though fairly hot, as the high pressure builds. High temps will reach into the reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s, but dewpoints may mix down to the lower 60s and will keep our heat indices from climbing into the upper 90s.
Surface analysis this afternoon places Tropical Depression Bonnie along the South Carolina coast, high pressure over the Tennessee Valley and Alabama, and a weak cold front over portions of Illinois, southern Missouri, and eastern Kansas.
121 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front moving across the area may cause scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise fair weather is expected through Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as it does. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower 60s and a few upper 50s possible.
some mid level ridging is forecast. kept low pops for storms in for the morning with thunderstorms chances increasing during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday night with thunderstorms likely ahead of and along the cold front. however may include parts of the area with the cold front.
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 This afternoon residual moisture with dewpoints in the lower 60s and steep low-level lapse rates have caused MLCAPES to reach around 2,000 J/KG across the southern counties of the CWA. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.
A slow moving upper trough will be in position to maintain a moist and unstable environment.
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 High pressure will build in across the Great Lakes providing fair weather through Memorial Day. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak cold front tied to remnant upper trough lifting through the northern Great Lakes beginning to fire isolated/scattered convection near the I-69 corridor as of 18z thanks to nearly 2000 j/kg of uncapped MLCAPE. Drier/less humid air will then filter in post-frontal overnight leaving a comfortable/warm Memorial Day as low level ridging builds in.
Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5- 8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects. A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging.
Light and variable breezes persist with weak ridging nearby.
High pressure across Indiana overnight will provide for a dry and pleasant Memorial Day.
551 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead of a cold front. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater impact will be clearing skies through the day.
Weak ridge of high pressure stretches from the Atlantic across Central Florida and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2-3 days. Troughing from the remnants of TD Bonnie over the Carolinas extends as far south as the Yucatan Channel/Cuba the next 2-3 days. Northwest flow around the base of the above mentioned trough will keep sea breezes on the east half of the peninsula, push any west coast sea breezes quickly to the east and help to feed Gulf and Caribbean moisture into Central Florida. Time height cross sections are showing sufficient moisture in the 1000mb-700mb layer impulses of mid level energy rounding the base of the upper trough to support daytime 30-40 POP.
High pressure is still in place and will remain in place over the next few days. What that means for us is warm temperatures reaching into the lower 90s over most of the area. Overnight lows this week will generally be in the low 70s to upper 60s. A cold front looks to move into the area later on in the week. High pressure will continue to be the main player over the coastal waters. With the core of the high closer to the area, winds will be lighter than they have been for the last few days.
420 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 The latest model guidance and recent water vapor imagery indicate a broad and elongated upper level trough extending across the southeastern states and into the Florida peninsula including the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. the latest global model guidance suggests that the upper level trough could drift a bit eastward tonight with a weak low level trough reflection across the local Atlantic waters. latest guidance indicates the upper level trough persisting across the region and deeper moisture persisting across South Florida.
The Northland finds itself in the wake of a passing area of low pressure, which will continue lifting through Ontario. The cloud cover will continue to clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Light westerly flow will become southerly in the afternoon as low pressure develops in the Great Plains. Leaned on the warmer model guidance given the sunshine and relatively dry humidity, such as the bias- corrected Canadian regional and SREF models.
Note though that the chances of pop-up pulsy storms are not nil - they just remain on the low side.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED DUE TO THE HIGH VULNERABILITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU TO FLASH FLOODING.
These falls shift into Montana tomorrow and amplify with a small but intense upper level low pressure system forming over north central Montana.
According to the latest obs most of the area has reached the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the Cumberland Plateau, which remains in the low 80s. Memorial Day will be dry and warm as an upper ridge moves across the Southeast.
should have better pcpn/tstm coverage in the mountains ahead of a trough axis that stretches fm western Wyoming into western AZ.
High Isolated showers will wind down this afternoon in the far north as the main trough axis heads eastward. Skies will then turn mostly clear this evening with mostly sunny skies expected Memorial Day under high pressure. Temperatures tomorrow will be above average once again, reaching the lower 80s most places. It will probably be a little cooler near Lake Michigan in the afternoon, as the light winds will allow a lake breeze to develop and move inland.
Dry weather will continue Monday night with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
239 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Dry weather and above average temperatures will prevail over the forecast area as a strong ridge of high pressure prevails. Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon in response to a weak area of low pressure moving across southern California.
225 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front moving across the area may cause scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise fair weather is expected through Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak cold front tied to remnant upper trough lifting through the northern Great Lakes beginning to fire isolated/scattered convection near the I-69 corridor as of 18z thanks to nearly 2000 j/kg of uncapped MLCAPE. Drier/less humid air will then filter in post-frontal overnight leaving a comfortable/warm Memorial Day as low level ridging builds in.
238 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible into Monday afternoon as high pressure slowly builds into Nevada. Less of a threat for convection tomorrow with a little drying and even warmer temps aloft.
There should be enough radiational cooling to allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s late tonight/early Monday morning over most of the area with a few spots in the upper 50s for lows.
Ridging aloft and cap may just be enough to keep convection from forming.
1114 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest MN with frontal boundary into southeast WY. Upper low spinning above low over northern MN. Concern for next two days is upper trough and low over southwest Canada.
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater impact will be clearing skies through the day.
246 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the dakotas and nebraska with weak low pressure to the east of the Rockies. On Monday, the upper low will dip into eastern Montana as it strengthens. A relatively weak frontal boundary will connect with the low later in the day with notable return flow to the east of the boundary. If sustained heating occurs ahead of the low, suspect severe thunderstorms will develop by afternoon and then shift southeastward Monday evening.
A low pressure system moving east through the desert southwest combined with an approaching trough across the Pacific Northwest will bring unsettled conditions across mainly central and northern portions of Utah through tonight and to central and southern Utah Monday. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing up under the deformation zone overhead created by the closed upper low moving across the desert southwest and a trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. So far the majority of the convection has been developing over the higher terrain but this convection should fill in over the valleys later this afternoon and evening. The trough moving through the Pacific northwest today will move across the northern Rockies early Monday morning pushing an associated weak cold front across northwest Utah.
A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain temperatures slightly below average through mid-week.
This is sufficient to support organized convection, but shear is expected to increase over the next several hours as the low-level jet kicks in. Convection should continue to weaken/dissipate during the morning hours on Monday with the loss of the low-level jet. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue An upper level low will be centered across Arizona late Monday, putting West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft, with intermittent disturbances tracking across the region. The aforementioned upper level low will slowly approach West Central Texas through the middle of the week.
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows nice spring conditions with westerly winds of 10 to 15+ mph bringing in slightly drier, cooler air and fair skies.
Lots of low clouds VFR West with somewhat cooler upper 70s and low 80s on track.
146 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Upper low nearly overhead is in the process of opening up and lifting to the northeast into Canada while slowly weakening early this morning, but there is still sufficient forced ascent to produce scattered to widespread showers this morning. Later tonight, clearing skies and light winds as low level ridging builds in to the region should lead to the re-development of fog in many areas, and it could be more widespread than is currently indicated in the forecast. Memorial Day appears to be the best day of the Holiday weekend underneath weak surface ridging, with light west/northwest winds and warming temps. Our next storm system is an upper low that will have been moving across the northern Rockies, and Monday evening will be over eastern Montana.
Thunderstorm activity Monday evening, some severe, will slowly wind down Monday night as the longwave of low pressure pulls slightly eastward overnight.
Some drier air will filter in behind the cold front today, as surface dewpoints only expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s by this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable night with lows dropping into the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible.
Decent lapse rates remain in place, with MLCAPE values from 250-1250 J/kg across the area, with the highest values over the west and south where there was a bit more sunshine. The CAMs all did a decent job with the timing and location of this activity, and all of them suggest a waning of things between 23Z and 02Z as we start to lose heating and surface ridging works in from the west.
445 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air mass.
Tonight and Monday Showers, and possibly a couple of thunderstorms, continued to make their way across the forecast area as a mid level trough and a cold front pushed east of Wisconsin. Looks like warmer than normal temperatures but less humid for Memorial Day. Monday Night Through Sunday A quiet night expected for much of Monday night as a weak ridge passes eastward.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A 500 mb trough over the southern Cali coastline will push east through Mon and Mon night. Several pockets of good PV will be moving around the base of the trough axis ejecting out over the south central Plains state through the short term increasing some divergence aloft. Although some stronger conv could wander into the western counties from the higher terrain of Mexico.
Expect additional showers to be possible again on Memorial was slightly cooler max temperatures. The convection has been focused in northern New York west of Lake Champlain as most of Vermont has been fighting the marine airmass associated with the back door cold front from this morning. Expected max temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts to push through the North Country.
As the diurnal convection comes to an end this evening, weak moisture transport is forecast to develop over the High Plains. Current NWP shows this mainly being relegated to the High Plains, though predictability has been moderate at best.
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A warm front will cross the state late on Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
Otherwise, a hot and somewhat muggy afternoon is ongoing with the ridge axis extending overhead, with temperatures reaching around 90 to the lower 90s over most inland locations. A similar pattern should persist for Memorial Day, with a mid level ridge extending across the western Gulf, with the northern periphery of the ridge axis near the vicinity of our forecast area. 5" along with available instability(MLCAPE averaging 750-1500 J/KG), the advancing seabreeze, and perhaps a minor impulse embedded on the periphery of the ridge will support carrying at least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast again Monday afternoon. Another hot day can otherwise be expected with highs in the lower to mid 90s inland, and close to 90 near the beaches.
A cold front will then approach the region late week. 8" Precipitable Water values across the center of the forecast area coincident with strong deformation on the western periphery of the low.
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A very warm and humid afternoon across the forecast area with temperatures away from the immediate coast in the upper 80s to around 90F, and heat index readings in the low to mid 90s. With some upper level ridging and mid level dry air noted across the forecast area, local radars have been void of any significant convection so far. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern California, with an upper level northern stream trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Disturbance rotating around the upper level low is expected to be picked up by the southern stream and pushed toward the forecast area, cutting briefly into the upper level ridge by Monday afternoon.
An upper trough over the region will continue to influence the weather conditions through tonight and Friday with increasing clouds and eventually scattered showers moving in from the west.
Warm temperatures will continue across the region through Friday as high pressure remains over the region and a thermal trough of low pressure moves over the Willamette Valley.
(Issued 1050 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016) Surface Analysis this morning shows a cold front northwest of the region with high pressure riding from the east firmly in place. For 18Z TAFs: Strong heating beneath mid/upper-lvl ridge will continue to force the development of isolated-widely sct shra and perhaps a few tsra this aftn. A slightly greater coverage of storms is anticipated tomorrow, courtesy of a southward drifting cold front -- and VCTS was introduced at MSL beginning at 26/15Z.
Longwave trough axis positioned to the east of the region and a North Pacific high in place to the northwest of central California puts us right in the middle of things with a dry northerly flow keeping things quiet. This set up reminds me of the story of the three bears with our porridge just right. This could allow for a cooler push of marine air for the northern parts of the San Joaquin valley tonight as the marine layer was topping out around the 2000 foot mark last night and an increase in onshore flow accompanying this short wave should allow for an increase in this layer height overnight ahead of this short wave passage.
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the upcoming weekend.
236 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Hydro A cold front dropping south through the state will bring showers and storms from early this morning into the afternoon hours. Dry weather settles in for tonight through Friday night as high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes region. Another round of showers and storms are expected this weekend as a low pressure system moves through our area.
301 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A cold front will slowly cross the region late tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will climb into the low 90s and dew points are back in the 70s.
247 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure continues to build into Northern Michigan this afternoon. Thick layer of mid cloud is gradually thinning with the departure of the cold front. Tonight will be noticeably cooler with ongoing CAA behind the cold front. Afternoon highs will range form the lower 70s in Eastern Upper and far NW Lower Michigan to around 80 degrees near Saginaw Bay.
Convection is starting to develop from Indiana into lower Michigan and southwest Ontario ahead of an eastward moving short wave trough. As soupier air moves in, this will mean that any storms that do develop will likely be copious rainfall producers due to warm rain processes and a very high freezing level. Fries Upper ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to build through the weekend.
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning.
148 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Aviation A cold front dropping south through the state will bring showers and storms from early this morning into the afternoon hours. Dry weather settles in for tonight through Friday night as high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes region. Another round of showers and storms are expected this weekend as a low pressure system moves through our area.
304 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 An unsettled weather pattern remains in place this afternoon as mid- level troughing dominates the flow aloft, along with several smaller scale waves rounding the base of the trough.
619 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
643 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A cold front will slowly cross the region late tonight and Friday.
320 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 North and Central Texas will remain between a developing trough across the western states and ridge of high pressure across the Southeastern United States. upper trough will translate east on Friday which will nudge the upper ridge toward the southeast coast.
Ridging will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of convection. Center of subtropical ridge over the southeast conus is progged by all models to migrate northeast to the Mid Atlantic by this weekend.
A back door cold front will be moving into northwest Montana late this afternoon through the evening. The highest wind gusts appear to be near Badrock Canyon with gusts up to 40 mph.
125 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the upcoming seven days. This is the result of subsidence under the mid level ridge that has been steadily working its way north from the Gulf Coast. Primary weather highlights this period are maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances, and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s compared to middle and upper.
For now, kept all sites at VFR CIGS, but MVFR CIGS and mtn obscurations will be possible as the low level moisture / SHRA move in.
229 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Isolated showers across across central Alabama this afternoon should dissipate by early evening due subsidence under strong upper ridge. Deeper moisture will pool across north Alabama on Friday as the center of the upper high shifts eastward. The lowering of 500mb heights and pooling of moisture should result in higher coverage of convective activity across north Alabama on Friday than today. Beyond Friday the overall upper air pattern does not change much across Alabama with a large scale ridge over the Gulf Coast region. This ridge will make it difficult for any tropical system to make a poleward movement.
152 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A slowly approaching cold front, will bring a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this morning, and another this evening.
Convection is starting to develop from Indiana into lower Michigan and southwest Ontario ahead of an eastward moving short wave trough. As soupier air moves in, this will mean that any storms that do develop will likely be copious rainfall producers due to warm rain processes and a very high freezing level.