Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A deep and potent Plains storm system will trail a cold front south into North Texas tonight and Sunday. Minimums will be mainly in the lower 70s.
Overnight drop to the low to mid 60s inland, but onshore winds keep temps mild in the low 70s along the coast. This does mean afternoon temps reach a couple of degrees higher, to the lower 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland.
Satellite imagery shows deep upper low that had brought widespread rain to East Idaho is now centered over the Dakotas, with cool northwest flow over the region. Temperatures are warmer than yesterday owing to more sun and lack of deep cloud cover, but snow levels are still averaging about 6000 ft today. Drier airmass associated with the ridge should help keep the remainder of East Idaho dry.
Unseasonably warm day across the area with most locations into the lower and even a few middle 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop well to the west across Iowa tonight and move east along the cold front overnight into Sunday morning. The main upper low will continue pushing NE with the dynamics along the front weakening as the associated weaker wave stretches and loses it punch into Sun.
As the Low pulls east conditions will improve with precipitation ending over the western CWA tonight and the eastern CWA by mid Sunday morning.
Sunday will be cloudy, continued breezy, and much cooler on the backside of the departing low pressure system. There could be some light rain along the Highway 14 corridor across SD, but any accumulation will be light.
This longwave trough is forecast to begin breaking down and de-amplify rather than advancing eastward, keeping the area under high pressure through the weekend.
138 PM PDT Sat Apr 23 2022 High pressure ridging set to give Nevada a break from the active pattern of late and giving us a return to spring like temperatures. However, this break looks to end by mid-week as an upper level trough approaches from the Northwest Pacific. These showers will come to an end tonight as we lose daytime heating, an as height rises associated with the approaching upper ridge spread over our area pushes any residual upper moisture to our east. latest model trends are in decent agreement and expects the region to begin drying out as ridging and high pressure build over the Silver State. Sunday winds drop further as high pressure builds in to become light and variable.
/issued 725 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ Upper level ridge will be parked over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast U. while high pressure on the eastern seaboard this morning slips out over Atlantic coastal waters by this evening. The upper ridge will provide a stable. and warm airmass while the high pressure ridges into the Gulf with a breezy easterly flow across the area. High pressure centered north of the waters will maintain a tight gradient across the area for the next couple of days but then begins to relax as the high pressure slips eastward.
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 After a windy Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will be the main weather concern as a cold front moves in from the west.
Tomorrow the parent low of the system to our west will lift from Minnesota into Ontario and by evening its cold front will arc from the Great Lakes through the middle Mississippi Valley to Texas.
307 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Ridging over the Ohio Valley has lead to mostly clear skies and ample SW induced WAA. Tight pressure gradients have set up aloft between high pressure to the SE and a strong low to the NE. As the low tracks NNE from the north central plains into Canada, an associated cold front will bring a line of showers and storms to the area for the end of the weekend.
The potential exists for more widespread post-frontal convection to develop later tonight as the cold front over takes the dryline across northeast OK.
the forecast area will be under the influence of a strong low pressure center moving northeast into northwest Minnesota overnight with continued northwest winds of 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower 30s in far eastern Colorado the lower 40s in Hill City. High temperatures will be cooler with middle 50s to lower 60s in far eastern Colorado, lower to upper 60s elsewhere.
We do have some high clouds that will move through the area, but overall a dry day with highs in the low to mid 60s for much of the area. Upper level ridge over the area today will shift east tonight.
340 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Strong low pressure is centered over the CWA this afternoon with very gusty south winds out ahead of the low over 60 mph. Overnight we do expect an uptick in speeds as the low starts to drift off to the east. Chilly temperatures set for Sunday night as high pressure begins building in.
A ridge aloft remains anchored over the Southeast through tonight before getting slowly nudged east on Sunday as a trough pivots across the Plains. Can't rule out a few showers by Sunday afternoon across southeast Mississippi as the area remains on the western side of the ridge, but the bulk of the showers and storms should remain further west of the local area.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and near normal SLP in the Caribbean is enough to drive surface winds near 20 knots over our coastal waters. The ridge will slowly progress towards the east over the next few days as a blocked high amplitude trough continues to dig into the northern plains states. The pattern is not very progressive as the ridge along the east coast is the axis of an omega block.
High pressure situated to our east remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee today.
A secondary cold front will push southward through the FA before sunrise tomorrow morning as the upper low currently over the Northern Plains pushes eastward. Models are in fairly decent agreement with developing convection along the cold front as a result of excellent surface convergence and frontal forcing. Convection will be mainly focused immediately along the cold front. Lift from a short wave trough will continue on Sunday evening producing precipitation in the southern Rolling Plains.
There is a second cold front that currently extends across northwest Kansas this afternoon. For Sunday, high pressure will prevail.
Temperatures in the low 80s and upper 70s with a southerly breeze.
Slightly cooler today with breezy winds around 20-30 mph and gusts up to 25-40 mph in the Magic Valley and the Lower Snake River Plain towards Mountain Home.
As the low slides east of here, still expect some downsloping on the lee of the Black Hills, particularly in the Rapid City and Hermosa foothills, which will limit snow potential for the immediate Rapid City area. Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure centered over southwestern SD. Negatively tilted trough digs into the central plains. On the backside of the low, temperatures are dropping fast, with snow ongoing in northeastern Wyoming.
250 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Models are consistent with each other, and are in good agreement with satellite and radar data showing the low lifting northeast out of South Dakota and wrap-around moisture pushing south through Wyoming into the northern Colorado mountains. The sounding this morning indicated the cold air advection over the previous 12 hours through the depth of the column giving us the much cooler temperatures today.
Gradients will loosen this evening as high pressure weakens and develops southward beneath the blocking ridge. The main concern through the rest of today and again tomorrow will be the High Risk of rip currents along our beaches.
Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was situated northwest of the area and stretched from near Childress, southwest to just north of Midland. Latest models show little southward progression of the cold front until tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Not overly confident with this scenario, so will keep POPs on the low side for tonight. For Sunday, precipitation chances will begin to increase across the area, especially by afternoon as the aforementioned cold front begins moving south. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 80s elsewhere.
These areas may see partial sun during the morning ahead of the cold front.
Severe threat becoming more limited as the warm front lifts north and dry line moves in behind and daytime heating wanes into the mid evening hours. With the upper low rotating through the forecast area Sunday, precipitation chances continue across much of the forecast are with some heavier convective bands possible.
An upper level ridge will gradually move east, as a weak front approaches.
Upstream, RAP analysis depicts surface warm front moving into central Wisconsin and curving northwest toward northwestern Wisconsin. Upstream, convection out ahead of a cold front is expected to increase in coverage and move in after this period. The focus for the activity will be courtesy of a meridionally-aligned upper jet axis approaching and traversing Upper Michigan tonight from the west, ahead of the low pressure system responsible for the weather as of late.
Did adjust lows ever so slightly towards the latest HRRR run which is a touch warmer than previous forecast. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 84 61 85 57 / 0 0 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 59 83 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 84 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 10 50.
610 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Latest water vapor loop continuing to show lots of moisture wrapping around the back side of the closed low over the northern plains with a well defined trowal across northern Wyoming and portions of northern Nebraska panhandle. The closed low does appear to be filling in which should begin to cease the conveyor belt of moisture. Due to the closed low slowly filling in, this may tend to keep the gradients higher through much of the evening before slowly diminishing overnight. There is a possibility that the wind speeds may creep up to High Wind Warning criteria in parts of the Pine Ridge and northern panhandle tomorrow morning. We did drop temperatures a few degrees across the snow covered areas tomorrow, but warmer ground temperatures should help melt the snow.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with high pressure in control. By the end of the period, the ridge will move eastward as a trough begins to approach the coast. However, no impacts from the trough are expected during the period.
Lingering showers and storms may continue across far southeast Kansas Sunday morning closer to the cold front, but most will be dry, cool, and pleasant for Sunday.
While lower elevations, such as along river valleys, may not see much additional impacts, the higher hills could see considerable blowing and drifting from moderate snow through the evening. Upper low (Spring Storm System) will continue to shift eastward, with an approaching upper level ridge bringing rising heights to the west tonight and Sunday. Although western mountains may have a few isolated snow showers ahead of the approaching ridge, Sunday will be mainly dry and warmer across the west.
Later tonight, cold front will push into far northeast OK after 06z.
Latest water vapor imagery shows ridging over much of the eastern CONUS, with a closed low and associated trough over the Northern Plains and extending into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure was just off the southeast coast, with southerly flow over much of the region. High clouds continue to filter into the TN Valley this afternoon, but temperatures have managed to rise into the lower 80s across the area. Thus, expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. Another warm day is on tap over the TN Valley on Sunday as the axis of an upper ridge continues to push eastward. This will lead to another mild night Sunday night, with lows in the lower 60s once again.
/NF/ Tonight and Sunday: High pressure ridging from a high centered over the East Coast prevails over the ARKLAMS today and this will continue through tonight.
949 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Light-moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, as a mid-level ridge remains centered off the coast of GA/SC. Across the remainder of the forecast area, a persistent SSE wind will result in sufficient mixing to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer and reduce the risk for fog development. Another warm day is on tap over the TN Valley on Sunday as the axis of an upper ridge continues to push eastward. This will lead to another mild night Sunday night, with lows in the lower 60s once again.
Wind advisory in effect through 7pm this evening area wide - although as the cold front moves through from northwest to southeast through the afternoon portions of this advisory area may not be necessary and could be cancelled early. The upper level pattern is dominated by a deep mid-latitude cyclone over the the northern Plains with a large dry slot wrapping into the parent low. The surface cold front is lagging but showing some signs of southeastward advancement now moving into north central KS into south central NE. Once the cold front pushes southeast into the area, there appears to be a better chance for storms to develop into this evening but appear to be more linear in nature.
Upper low (Spring Storm System) will continue to shift eastward, with an approaching upper level ridge bringing rising heights to the west tonight and Sunday. Although western mountains may have a few isolated snow showers ahead of the approaching ridge, Sunday will be mainly dry and warmer across the west.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A deep and potent Plains storm system will trail a cold front south into North Texas tonight and Sunday. Minimums will be mainly in the lower 70s.
749 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Strong low pressure is centered over the CWA this afternoon with very gusty south winds out ahead of the low over 60 mph. Overnight we do expect an uptick in speeds as the low starts to drift off to the east. Chilly temperatures set for Sunday night as high pressure begins building in.
619 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Outside of isolated afternoon showers along the ridges each day, the weekend will be mainly dry and warm under high pressure.
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 After a windy Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will be the main weather concern as a cold front moves in from the west.
Strong low pressure is centered over the CWA this afternoon with very gusty south winds out ahead of the low over 60 mph. Overnight we do expect an uptick in speeds as the low starts to drift off to the east. Chilly temperatures set for Sunday night as high pressure begins building in.
547 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Models are consistent with each other, and are in good agreement with satellite and radar data showing the low lifting northeast out of South Dakota and wrap-around moisture pushing south through Wyoming into the northern Colorado mountains. The sounding this morning indicated the cold air advection over the previous 12 hours through the depth of the column giving us the much cooler temperatures today.
Overnight lows should be in the low to middle 60s. A cold front will approach the Mid South Sunday.
931 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue overnight. This longwave trough is forecast to begin breaking down and de-amplify rather than advancing eastward, keeping the area under high pressure through the weekend.
722 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A stalled warm front over western Pennsylvania will push eastward into the central part of the state on Sunday.
1131 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Models are consistent with each other, and are in good agreement with satellite and radar data showing the low lifting northeast out of South Dakota and wrap-around moisture pushing south through Wyoming into the northern Colorado mountains. The sounding this morning indicated the cold air advection over the previous 12 hours through the depth of the column giving us the much cooler temperatures today.
120 AM MST Sun Apr 24 2022 High pressure will build across the region through the early part of the week with prevailing dry conditions and generally clear skies.
1113 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A stalled warm front over western Pennsylvania will push eastward into the central part of the state on Sunday.
Mainly clear skies as northwest flow returns across the CWA as the upper level low to the north continues its eastward progression. A cold front has pushed through the CWA giving way to cooler temperatures overnight dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s northwest to southeast. Afternoon high temperatures will be cooler as well ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Fire weather concerns will be diminished with the cooler temperatures as relative humidity values stay above 20-30 percent.
(Today and Tonight) A couple of semi-organized areas of thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning that are relevant to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas: the first being along the cold front situated just northwest of the forecast area in north central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and the second associated with the low level jet aligned just south of I-44.
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022 High pressure will remain in control through early this week.
407 AM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022 A stalled warm front over western Pennsylvania will push eastward into the central part of the state on Sunday.
312 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Mid-upper level trough/low has slowed in eastward progression into the Upper Midwest, as system occludes with a cold front pushing through central Iowa. A pre-frontal trough extends into eastern Iowa. Key Messages: 1) Showers gradually tapering off 2) More wind 3) Not as warm with more seasonable temps Low level forcing ahead of cold front and pre-frontal trough and mid-level dCVA will shift gradually eastward taking the rain/ showers with it. One area of lower confidence on highs is across portions of east central/northeast IA where the delta could be warmer than forecast, as the deeper mixing RAP/NAM models to around 800 hPa if they verify CID north/west in abundant solar insolation could yield more widespread mid/upper 60s in this area.
Models are consistent with each other, and are in good agreement with satellite and radar data showing the low lifting northeast out of South Dakota and wrap-around moisture pushing south through Wyoming into the northern Colorado mountains. The sounding this morning indicated the cold air advection over the previous 12 hours through the depth of the column giving us the much cooler temperatures today.
Deep low pressure remains centered over the Dakotas early this morning. Associated warm/stationary front extends southeastward from the low thru Northern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan into Pennsylvania. Cold front extends from the low thru Minnesota and Iowa into the Southern Plains. Broken line of relatively weak convection continues to develop ahead of this cold front. with temps ranging from the lower 40s across Eastern Upper and far Northern/NE Lower Michigan to the low to mid 70s in our far SW CWA around TVC and MBL in the vcnty of the stationary/warm front. Low pressure center will lift NE to just north of Lake Superior by this evening.
Convection will potentially last through the evening as the stationary boundary is expected to remain relatively in the same position before a cold front pushes it southeast. The cold front mentioned above will push into the region this afternoon, resulting in breezy northeasterly winds.
Today will be cooler and thanks to an increase in expected cloud cover farther south, have lowered highs slightly. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the entire area today with the lowest relative humidity expected mainly south of HWY 6 and the strongest winds expected north of I-80. Tonight will be rather chilly as lows dip into the lower 30s most places and even into the upper 20s for a few places out west.
1226 AM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Outside of isolated afternoon showers along the ridges each day, the weekend will be mainly dry and warm under high pressure.
/Issued 931 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue overnight. This longwave trough is forecast to begin breaking down and de-amplify rather than advancing eastward, keeping the area under high pressure through the weekend.
Keeping a close eye on visibilities as a cold front crosses this morning, it should act to scour out the fog. The cold front can be clearly seen on radar, but so far have not noticed an marked improvement at KCOQ as it passed over the site; this may be due to time averaging visibilities at the site. Shower activity should occur near the low pressure as it slides north this afternoon, but instability is very shallow due to a deep isothermal layer aloft, so not expecting any thunderstorms today. We will see pretty strong winds as the low moves north and pressure begins rising.
Storms are likely to continue across parts of southwest into central Oklahoma before a cold front that is currently located over northwest Oklahoma pushes southeast through much of the area, which should shift heavier rainfall farther south, at least for a while. Will likely need to add a few counties farther northwest to the current flood watch with previous days heavy rain and some of the high res models showing some of these areas could be an area of focus for additional rainfall during the day today into tonight.
A broad, mid to upper level trough is sitting over the northern to central Rockies into the Great Plains. The base of the trough is running through the Desert Southwest into the FA. A closed low associated with this trough is spinning over the Dakotas.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Sunday: High pressure ridging from a high centered over the East Coast prevails over the ARKLAMS today and this will continue through tonight.
A pocket of dry air is rounding the southwestern periphery of a large low level ridge parked on the eastern U. Breezes will continue to gradually slacken as a large surface anticyclone continues to slide further east over the western North Atlantic.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a stalled cold front across the Big Country. The aforementioned cold front will slowly move south across the area this afternoon and evening.
1110 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A stalled warm front over western Pennsylvania will push eastward into the central part of the state on Sunday.
228 AM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Most recent water vapor shows the upper low centered over the eastern ND/SD border this morning. As we progress through this morning, the low lifts NE and precipitation will taper off from west to east for our region.
The cold front that brought a few severe storms last evening has exited the forecast area.
A short-lived, weak ridge is building over the Northern Rockies, however combining zonal flow with a small amount of CAPE or convective energy, will allow for cumulus and isolated showers to form I-90 and north.
406 AM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Convective activity in association with warm front push has tapered off over the last hour. Elsewhere, temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s across the remainder of the UP. The focus for the activity will be courtesy of a meridionally-aligned upper jet axis approaching and traversing Upper Michigan tonight from the west, ahead of the low pressure system responsible for the weather as of late.
335 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 An advancing cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms across central Illinois today. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a 984mb low over the eastern Dakotas with a cold front arcing southeastward across central Iowa into northern Missouri. The main weather story for today will be the potential for strong to severe storms ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening. While the cold front will pass through the northern half of the CWA, it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow and slow its southeastward progression tonight.
A fairly quiet overnight is expected, with lows in the lower to upper 60s.
Visibility will be sharply reduced in areas where we see the high winds along with heavier snowfall.