Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 928 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. A warm front currently extends across central Alabama and into northern Louisiana. Overnight, a warm front will begin to return Northward likely approaching the Tennessee state line by 7 am. Dew points should be in the low to middle 60s tomorrow afternoon resulting in CAPE between 500 and 1,000J/kg.
Mostly dry weather returns for Tuesday with zonal flow aloft and a weak trough and associated front forming to the west. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows Tue night into the upper 60s.
Low level ridging in between systems will keep dry wx conditions in place otherwise into Tuesday.
1044 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Water vapor shows flat ridge moving through the northern Rockies/northern plains, with large trof along the west coast. At the surface, lee trof is deepening with pressure falls well eastward into the northern plains. Thermal ridge overhead will lead to our warmest day of the week, with temps well into the 60s and possibly even lower 70s south/east of the Black Hills. Jet streak ejects from west coast trof and pushes a cold front through the area Tuesday night, with baroclinic zone setting up close to our southwest.
1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Issued at 343 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2020 The fog and low clouds limited our heating today with high temperatures only climbing into the lower 50s. Models have been trending south for the low which is causing the MUCAPE, LLJ, and WAA to also trend south. This system quickly moves out of the area by the late afternoon with higher pressure and some upper level ridging pushing back into the area. Wednesday looks to be the best day of the week with lee-side troughing along the front range and a cold front over the northern Plains which will force a southerly return flow and strong WAA into the region.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 58 70 48 77 / 100 100 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 57 66 47 75 / 100 100 30 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 55 66 46 74 / 100 100 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 52 63 45 72 / 90 100 50 10 10.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging over northern Mexico extending into deep south Texas will provide strong subsidence across the area through Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure across the Plains interacts with high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and allows the pressure gradient to strengthen through early this afternoon.
Dry weather will continue into tomorrow, but a low pressure system tracking along the Ohio River will bring rain in starting tomorrow afternoon. Satellite indicates very little movement to the southern edge of the low cloud deck has occurred over the last couple of hours. Ridging and dry conditions will continue through the rest of today and tonight and low level clouds will continue for most of the area as an inversion is in place. Models have continued to trend towards the low tracking further south than previous runs were showing, which will shift the rain further south as well, and lower rainfall amounts are expected for central Indiana, with highest amounts of near a half inch across our southern counties. Winds will shift direction as the low passes through.
1138 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A weak disturbance ahead of an upper trough currently crossing the Four Corners Region will reach western Nebraska late this afternoon. By evening, chances will increase across southwest NE into the cntrl Sandhills as the main upper trough moves in.
For this will maintain cooler temperatures over that area. Temperatures are trending cooler as is the entire troposphere. NBM guidance trends precip towards more rain with some mixed precipitation mixed in, though GFS and NAM soundings both highlight a chance for more freezing drizzle and snow. Did trend the temps down slightly to reflect this higher potential for Wednesday afternoon. Still, overall snow amounts look to be less than an inch for most areas and models point towards the higher QPF being between I-90 and hwy 212.
331 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge over ND and southern MAN. An upper trough was located from southern ALTA to northeast NV. The upper level trough will move across the area this afternoon and produce some synoptic lift. Cold front will follow later tonight with gusty northwest winds behind a cold front.
Low level flow will become more southerly overnight and likely lift clouds ahead of the developing warm front over South Dakota/Iowa overnight. Models drive a stronger wave with some layered FGEN as the cold front moves across the Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Expect showery, cooler and breezy weather through Wednesday.
1154 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure builds in Tuesday. Despite passage of the low, low level moisture is expected to remain in place overnight, with the deck of stratus forecast to continue through most of the night. Tue night will see the upper flow amplify ahead of a compact, advancing Plains trough. High pressure Wed night will suppress precipitation, but the lack of rain will be short-lived.
235 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A flat upper level ridge will bring weak subsidence and a zonal flow aloft over the region today. Across the urban corridor and northeast plains, dry and mild with temperatures a little warmer than normal.
Upglide over the boundary continues to force scattered showers and a few storms across NW AR and NE OK, however the more significant convection remains tied to the low level jet axis and these strong to severe storms will expand into northeast OK over the next couple of hours with mainly a large hail threat. This signal presents itself in much of the high-res data and at least some potential for dense fog may exist. Otherwise will see warmer temperatures Wed/Thu as mid level heights build.
419 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region today and tonight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A weak wedge in place this morning will erode from the south as a warm front lifts northward across the area through tonight. Went with high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north to the mid 70 south. A cold front will push through the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this cold front passes through the area, a chance of showers will remain. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, as high pressure begins to ridge in from the north. Model trends have continued to strengthen this high which significantly limits our max temperatures for Wednesday.
Latest model data has shifted the track of this feature further south, thus focusing the highest PoPs and thunder chances from southern Illinois southward into the Tennessee River Valley. High pressure will shift into the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday afternoon, allowing a southerly return flow to develop.
337 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky today. A chilly rain could affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
850 mb moisture was somewhat limited in our area, with the highest values from south TX into the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure was off to our east and we were in south or southeast low level flow. This will help drive a fairly strong cold front through the region.
The deep layer ridge will really start to build in late this week bringing much warmer than nornmal temperatures. NBM temperatures have come down a little since yesterday morning's run getting closer to the high temperatures advetised by the ECMX for this weekend. The real news comes at the end of the forecat period when a short wave in the southern flow pushes through next Tuesday producing some rain chances, then cooler air pushes in for Wednesday.
/issued 823 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will weaken a little bit through Tuesday allowing for a stationary front to shift a little bit south into Florida Panhandle.
A warm front will move slowly north across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Fog has developed in portions of the area with the lowest visibilities (one half mile or less) affecting the northern Midlands early this morning. Upper trough to move east across the Midwest with weaker energy over our region. Wedge in place early, and expecting wedge to erode from the south as a warm front type feature works north during the day. Upper high will build over the SE US.
IFR cigs associated with a weak surface wind shift may also clip far ne NM before 13Z, but surface lee trough developing by 21Z.
405 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure will briefly bring dry weather for today.
/issued 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ An upper low was located over Srn CA this morning as a ridge remains over Mexico. This low will quickly move east and open up as it does reaching the TX Panhandle by early Tuesday. Another low off the WA coast Tuesday will come ashore OR Wednesday and develop into a deep trough as it works down the coast.
This cloudiness should restrict high temperatures today to between the mid 40s and 50 degrees, but at least that is warmer than it was yesterday. Behind the low pressure system, winds turn more northerly overnight and the AVA/subsidence behind the low should help to clear out clouds shortly after midnight. Ridging collocated with high pressure should help to remove cloud cover by Wednesday morning and allow highs to rise into to upper 50s with areas approaching 60 south of US-30 despite a late arrival of warm air advection.
Westerly downsloping flow in the low levels should bring warmer weather to at least western and central Nebraska today (highs in the 60s). This may also combine with subsidence to break down the low clouds to our west. Setting up a battle between a cooler more moist surface air mass, a low level inversion and subsidence in the mid levels to see if we can break the low clouds. Thus forecaster confidence was high enough to add some degradation of the low cloud deck into the forecast by this evening.
Overnight the low pressure system that was looking to bring some rain to southern portions of the area, ended up staying to the south primarily over central KS. Slight ridging aloft and at the mid levels, along with down sloping from the westerly wind component should help scatter out the stratus from west to east this afternoon and push our highs in to the 60s across the whole CWA. Another round of cloud cover is expected to begin building in overnight as this low approaches from the west. Temperatures look to be the warmest overall tomorrow, especially in the south where dry southwesterly winds could push highs into the low to mid 70s.
IFR to MVFR may resume briefly from 17z-20z before TSRA arrives after 20z-21z ahead of a cold front. As a cold front pushes through after 00z, winds will become WNW. As a cold front moves through after 06z, winds will become WSW.
Rain and mountain snow continue today in the wake of a cold front, with a slight increase in intensity expected this afternoon.
A weak perturbation along the southern periphery of the ridge was producing some snow showers over portions of south-central WY. Broad upper ridge will shift east as a upper low/trough enter the northwest CONUS. Subtropical moisture and lift from a Pacific low pressure system will generate scattered rain and snow showers west of Interstate 25 today, spreading east into much of southeast WY and the NE Panhandle this evening.
527 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky today. A chilly rain could affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
A warm front will approach from the south after 12z-13z, bringing the first chance of SHRA/-TSRA. As a cold front pushes through after 00z-03z, winds will become WNW. Not much change is expected in the categories, and BR is possible ahead of a warm front. As a cold front moves through after 04z-05z, winds will become WSW.
Dry conditions with warmer temperatures will prevail through midweek.
538 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the week as low pressure over Vancouver Island swings south into the Great Basin. This trof will move into the Mississippi Valley by the weekend, bringing a warmer ridge back over Montana. Cold front crossing the state this morning is producing a few light showers. Skies should then begin to clear, except across the north where Canadian high pressure will push some low clouds south of the border. The remainder of the week will be mostly dry as the upper low moves through the Great Basin and across the central Rockies.
Lower clouds should slowly mix out after sunrise, but mostly cloudy conditions will continue through today in advance of low pressure. Upper flow will amplify tonight as a trough advances out of the Plains. Latest deterministic model runs have trended farther south with this low, so have dropped QPF totals to less than half an inch outside of the MD/WV ridges. Rain will exit the region Wednesday afternoon as the low shifts eastward. Showers may linger across the ridges through the evening, but high pressure will return dry weather Wednesday night.
633 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure will rapidly move east and away from northern New England today. High pressure will build in this afternoon and move away Wednesday.
423 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Above normal temperatures and humidity will bring about very warm and muggy conditions for a majority of the week as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge over ND and southern MAN. An upper trough was located from southern ALTA to northeast NV. The upper level trough will move across the area this afternoon and produce some synoptic lift. Cold front will follow later tonight with gusty northwest winds behind a cold front.
The low cloud decks are expected to lift and break quickly by mid morning with VFR returning. /issued 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging over northern Mexico extending into deep south Texas will provide strong subsidence across the area through Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure across the Plains interacts with high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and allows the pressure gradient to strengthen through early this afternoon.
628 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 [Through 12Z Wednesday] Degraded flt conds at all terminals with the lowest conds from ECP-TLH-VLD in fog with DHN-ABY at MVFR with mostly cig restrictions. Stationary boundary just to our north currently will lift northward as a warm front as a low pressure system moves northeast off the high plains of west Texas into the central Plains today. Early this morning, light winds and good low level moisture will lead to areas of fog across the region with the highest probability and lowest visibilities from Tallahassee east to Valdosta and Cross City. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
654 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Showers/storms could linger for a few hours across southeast Kansas this morning, otherwise today should be dry with some residual clouds in the wake of the overnight activity possibly keeping some areas a bit cooler.
For example, the GFS is all snow while the NAM has a couple hours of rain before a brief period of freezing rain (no accumulation is expected if any falls at all) and then snow.
A cold front will arrive from the north tonight which will bring cooler temperatures on Wednesday. A cold front is expected to arrive in the north this evening and drop south across the state overnight. 850mb temperatures associated with the thermal ridge ahead of the trough axis will be warm, maximized at 5 to 9 degrees C. This thermal ridge is quickly pushed off to the east through the day which will somewhat limit the high-end potential for today's high temperatures.
SW/SSW flow of 5-10 mph will delay the onset of the east coast sea breeze allowing temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer (mainly 84 to 86 degrees for highs) toward the beaches than the previous couple of days. Ridge axis across south Florida will provide southwesterly winds that will gradually back to the SE/SSE by this afternoon at 10-15 kt once the sea breeze develops.
Upper flow will amplify only slightly tonight as a trough advances out of the Plains. Latest deterministic model runs have trended farther south with this low, so have dropped QPF totals to less than half an inch outside of the MD/WV ridges. Rain will exit the region Wednesday morning as the low shifts eastward. Progressive flow pattern is progged to continue through the weekend, although a deeper trough will intiated stronger warm advection on its van for the latter half of the week. That warmth will be offset by increased rain chances though with the systems cold front initiating a temperature back toward the averages for the start of the new week.
525 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure will briefly bring dry weather for today.
A cool upper trough will move through the area today, bringing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
403 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A cold front will move toward the area today but stall short of moving through.
A large low pressure trough will persist over the region through Wednesday.
709 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky today. A chilly rain could affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
/issued 245 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020/ Skies have become cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 60s. This activity is north of a warm front which currently extends across central Alabama and into extreme north Louisiana. The warm front will continue to move north today with more showers and thunderstorms developing later this morning. Some of these thunderstorms that develop north of the warm front could have large hail with them. Low pressure is expected to move along this warm front reaching western Arkansas by this afternoon and then moving out of west Tennessee by this evening. As this low passes through the region, there will be an increased risk of damaging winds as well as large hail.
816 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region today and tonight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A weak wedge in place this morning will erode from the south as a warm front lifts northward across the area through tonight. Went with high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north to the mid 70 south. A cold front will push through the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this cold front passes through the area, a chance of showers will remain. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, as high pressure begins to ridge in from the north. Model trends have continued to strengthen this high which significantly limits our max temperatures for Wednesday.
Temperatures are on track to reach into the lower to mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Dry high pressure will continue and have no updates planned. High pressure will be in place and a sea breeze will develop near the coast each day.
526 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with warm front through the western Dakotas. but as with yesterday, models continue to have a hard time capturing the low level drying. Cold front settles in across the area tonight. Upper level flow becomes southwesterly as positive tilt trof sets up across the western CONUS.
621 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region today and tonight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A weak wedge in place this morning will erode from the south as a warm front lifts northward across the area through tonight. Went with high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north to the mid 70 south. A cold front will push through the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this cold front passes through the area, a chance of showers will remain. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, as high pressure begins to ridge in from the north. Model trends have continued to strengthen this high which significantly limits our max temperatures for Wednesday.
1226 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky this afternoon. A chilly rain will affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. Temperatures will be just cold enough for wet snow to fall on the highest ridges in southern PA and coat the ground with an inch or two of snow. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
203 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 An upper trough was centered off the WA coast this morning as a flat upper ridge over Mexico extended up across the region. This trough will come ashore the West Coast Tuesday and slowly move inland.
A brief break in the showers/thunderstorms may occur here over the next few hours and into the afternoon for the southern half as the warm front approaches. Warm front is still off to the south, and the question will be how far north the front will move this afternoon. IFR to MVFR may resume briefly from 17z-20z before TSRA arrives after 20z-21z ahead of a cold front. As a cold front pushes through after 00z, winds will become WNW. As a cold front moves through after 06z, winds will become WSW.
400 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Quiet weather returns tonight into Wednesday as low pressure passes south of southern New England.
1234 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region today and tonight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A weak wedge in place this morning will erode from the south as a warm front lifts northward across the area through tonight. Went with high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north to the mid 70 south. An upper level trough exits The Midlands and CSRA Wednesday morning.
211 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Dry and warm high pressure will be in place across the area through early Wednesday.
229 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Cool and unsettled conditions continue across the region through the Wednesday as a low pressure trough along the west coast moves inland. Upper level trough with low centered along the WA coast today will continue to gradually shift inland over the next couple of days as disturbances eject out to the NE across the northern Rockies and MT in WSW flow aloft ahead of the weakening trough. Precipitation over SW MT will decrease Wednesday morning before another disturbance associated with the main trough axis brings an increase in snow showers again Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Overnight a cold front will push across the area and bring temps down into the 20s by Wednesday morning.
Medium Pronounced 850/925 warm air advection will amplify thermal ridging ahead of an approaching cold front.