Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward through the Northern and Central Plains. A narrow axis of shallow moisture convergence spanned an areas behind a surface cold front from central Kansas northwest into the smoky hill valley in the west central. There is not a large degree of spread in what models are putting out for high temperatures this afternoon, most of which was in the very high 90s, and overall the model consensus is only a degree to two warmer than the climate influenced MOS. The warm air today is indirectly due to the mid level ridge axis being directly over central Kansas with strong subsidence.
An upper level ridge has been building across the central CONUS throughout the night which will keep skies mostly sunny for the next couple of days. This ridge weakens slightly on Thursday allowing a wave off the leeward northern CONUS Rockies to dip down into the upper MO River valley.
A weak high pressure ridge will persist over or near the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters from today through at least Labor Day, with corresponding light to gentle breezes prevailing.
959 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Low pressure exits the region today. Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures move into the Ohio Valley Thursday into the start of the weekend. A cold front moves through during the weekend with a slight chance for precipitation. Rain will continue exiting into eastern Ohio late this morning, allowing high pressure and a fresh northerly breeze to usher in cooler, drier weather today. Temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and depending on how quickly the high pressure moves in from the north, some upper 40s cannot be ruled out across west-central Ohio. Dewpoints in the low 50s during the afternoon will feel quite different from the humid air masses experienced during much of August.
This is because we remain under a mid level ridge that is being pinched between two upper level lows. This will lead to the ridge remaining in place over the region with below normal rain chances and light winds. Meanwhile, a long wave trough is traversing across the central and eastern U. This trough will absorb the remnants of Ida and lift it northeast later this morning. At the same time, the TUTT over eastern Cuba will "feel" the longwave trough and begin to get nudged northeast.
Given the dry cold front that crossed yesterday, today's high temperatures will range in the 60s and 70s today and Thursday as low pressure circulates across the Pacific Northwest. Again, as has been the theme lately, no precipitation is expected from this area of low pressure.
- Cooler temperatures for the weekend. As of 08Z Wednesday morning the remnants of Ida continue to progress through the central Appalachians with a mid-level ridge axis amplifying across the southern High Plains. Transitioning into the daylight hours today, the low stratus across MO is likely to overspread much of the forecast area. Short term guidance continues to suggest that this stratus will be slow to erode/mix out into the afternoon and may keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s for most areas. By Thursday, the remnants of Nora will eject into the central High Plains, ultimately being absorbed into the long-wave, mid-level trough across the Pacific Northwest.
414 AM PDT Wed Sep 1 2021 A weak trough of low pressure moving slowly inland to the north will bring a drying trend into the weekend.
652 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper high will continue to build into the region today. With the high pressure in the region, showers/storms will become less likely.
The trend will continue as the upr trough axis and Ida remnant continue to dvlp the moisture convergence areas east of the ridges. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the remnant as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
Cooler air has moved into the western zones, less so in the east.
233 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Through Thursday: It's a hot and humid day as moisture pools ahead of a cold front which is moving southward toward the area. /DL/ Cooler and drier air filters into the region behind the front, resulting in more comfortable conditions across the region.
They are taking awhile to get down here, but have begun working into/across the I-64 corridor already, where they are dipping into the lower 60s. The lower tropospheric flow out of the NNE should drag this drier air on down/across much of the remainder of the FA today, but may take into tonight to work its way fully across our southern and southwestern most portions of the CWA.
These passing features should bring an end to the pcpn into the weekend as an upper ridge starts to build later tonight.
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The cold frontal boundary has passed south of our area, and skies continue to gradually clear out from north to south across the region at this hour. Already seeing low to mid 60s dew points across our north and these values should find their way down to the low to mid 50s by the pre-dawn hours Thursday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate, so no rain in the forecast.
Some locations this morning outside the mountains saw near mid 30s to freezing temperatures, most notably in Central OR such as at KRDM. Some patchy temp reports elsewhere near freezing too in the Simcoe Highlands. Looking ahead, tomorrow lows should not be as cold as this morning on the whole with lows a few to several degrees warmer across much of Central OR, south central WA, and parts of the Basin. As such, the threat for frost and freezing temperatures presently is lower for tomorrow morning.
The dry air behind the cold front yesterday helped many locations to cool down to freezing or below this morning. Frost is again possible in select areas tonight, especially in the higher valleys, so be prepared to protect sensitive vegetation.
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this afternoon as a trough trailing the remnants of Ida over the northern Gulf region and high pressure over the SW Atlantic are responsible for deep, moist W/SW flow across the state. A trough of low pressure trailing the remnants of Ida continues drifting south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday with breezy west to southwest winds and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Steep low/mid level lapse rates and increased instability will set the stage for likely thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening in vicinity of a lee side trough axis as a series of H5 vort maxima eject out of the Southern Rockies. Meanwhile, pooling moisture ahead of the trough axis with surface dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 60s(F) will provide ample instability. Temperatures will be well above normal tonight as prevailing southerlies continue to reinforce a much warmer air mass across western Kansas. Look for lows generally down into the upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F). Should see highs only up into the mid/upper 80s(F) in west central and central Kansas with the lower/mid 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border, particularly in south central Kansas.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 82 62 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 81 59 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 81 59 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 79 54 82 58 / 20 10 0 0 0.
Key Messages: 1)Drier and cooler weather expected tonight and on Thursday as high pressure settles across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Northwest flow continues this afternoon keeping low level moisture in place and upslope flow showers in the higher terrain. Ridging aloft will shift eastward during the period kicking the trough northeast. Drier low level air filters into the region overnight helping to dry out the area with decreasing PoPs across the high terrain. With much drier air in place, overnight lows will be several degrees cooler with lows in the 50's across the high terrain and low-mid 60's across the valley. On Thursday, mid-upper level heights increase with high pressure at the surface moving across the Great Lakes.
A strong mid-level ridge remains in place across the region leading to synoptic-scale subsidence. Starting with the convection, while subsidence aloft remains strong, Central Texas is under the periphery of the mid-level ridge, so strong surface heating may allow the cap to be overcome leading to the development of isolated convection (as has been the case the past few days).
The combination of these clouds and weak to moderate low-level cold air advection will help keep temperatures slightly below normal as highs reach the low to mid 80s. Aloft, mid/upper level ridging builds back into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The trend will continue as the upr trough axis and Ida remnant continue to dvlp the moisture convergence areas east of the ridges.
Subtropical ridging overhead continues today. As the center of the high at 700 hPa and below pushes eastward, south/southeasterly flow is deepening across the area.
Overall pattern remains about the same thru the short term period with mid level ridging situated across Tx and srn Plains and a light s/se flow in the llvls. Should again see things wind down in the evening, but may need to keep an eye to our ene with some guidance fcsting a vort rounding the se periphery of the ridge & moving toward the area.
1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Welcome to meteorological fall! High pressure sitting over Hudson Bay extends southward into the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning with light to calm surface winds. This will yield similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures compared to yesterday with highs in the 70s to around 80. A slightly cooler night on tap tonight with lower fog potential owing to some drier air advecting in from the northeast today.
As of 4:30 PM rain has largely moved east of the ridges.
The overall forecast of rainfall developing toward central PA continues as the upr trough axis and Ida remnant continue to dvlp the moisture convergence areas east of the ridges.
75" even in the highest elevations and just enough rainfall to saturate some of the lower elevations (0.
The upper level trough axis is now to the east of the area with the remnants of Ida moving over the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeastern U. Additionally, there is a cold front to the north that will move into the area later today.
Confluent southwest flow aloft and lee side surface ridging (along with both high cloud and smoke cover for much of our cwa) are limiting surface heating and instability behind last night's cold front. Trof over the PacNW will track slowly eastward bringing ascent and a good chance of showers beginning Thursday night. Temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Midlevel ridging will build over the region, supporting subsidence and favoring mostly clear nighttime skies, a mix of clouds and sun during the day, and temperatures above average.
123 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Low pressure exits the region today. Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures move into the Ohio Valley Thursday into the start of the weekend.
1147 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper ridge axis is currently centered over the central states, while a Pacific NW trough pushes eastward. At the surface, low pressure is over SE MT. Its warm front is beginning to cross the CWA, with the cold front following behind.
929 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Surface analysis shows last night's cold front just now reaching the Dakotas border (winds at Baker are finally veering). Upper low is over southern Alberta and dry/cooler air has surged into our region. JKL A dry, cold front came through last night shifting winds for most of the area to the northwest. Behind the front and under the lowering heights of a broad trough over the Pac NW, temperatures will be significantly cooler today. Thursday will continue to be cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 70s.
302 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Thursday with dry, mostly clear skies, and slightly below normal temperatures. High pressure ridge extending from WI, through IA into MO/KS will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Thursday night as it slowly moves east across the state. A weather system will push toward the area during the end of the week as the ridge moves to the east.
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the Central and Southern Plains today. This occurs ahead of an upper trough that is developing into the Pacific Northwest.
Pretty uneventful weather day across the area today as upper level ridging was firmly in control. Really the only thing of note was pesky lingering cloud cover that kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected in some spots.
High pressure aloft will strengthen over the area tomorrow, resulting in dry weather and above normal temperatures. For tonight, expect warm and muggy conditions under mostly clear skies, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper high will continue to build into the region today. With the high pressure in the region, showers/storms will become less likely.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 65 82 62 85 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 63 81 59 84 / 30 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 81 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 60 79 54 82 / 70 10 10 0 0.
The low levels remain rather moist, helping to foster robust SBCAPE/MLCAPE values over 2,000j/kg.
1051 AM PDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The weather today into Thursday will be cooler than average with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 70s.
After a pair of thunderstorms drifted over the Straits of Florida east of Marathon Humps earlier this morning, cumulus growth has been largely stunted, likely due to a combination of convective inhibition and dry air in the lower troposphere. On the large scale, weak but deep subtropical ridging prevails atop the service area. The developing ridge over the central United States is still likely to lead to an anticyclone wave break over the weekend.
609 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Thursday with dry, mostly clear skies, and slightly below normal temperatures. High pressure ridge extending from WI, through IA into MO/KS will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Thursday night as it slowly moves east across the state. A weather system will push toward the area during the end of the week as the ridge moves to the east.
500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV throughout the upcoming 24 hours maintaining overall VFR conditions for the RGV airports. /issued 203 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Midlevel ridging will build over the region, supporting subsidence and favoring mostly clear nighttime skies, a mix of clouds and sun during the day, and temperatures above average.
208 PM PDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The weather today into Thursday will be cooler than average with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 70s.
650 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Hot and humid conditions continue today through Thursday as a ridge remains over a majority of the forecast region.
329 PM PDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The weather today into Thursday will be cooler than average with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 70s.
Global models suggest an area of lift dropping down through the area around this time to support this, with the strong upper level trough remaining across the Southeast. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
(This evening through Thursday) Hot and humid conditions continue today through Thursday as a ridge remains over a majority of the forecast region.
730 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Thursday with dry, mostly clear skies, and slightly below normal temperatures. With the lowering dew points, temperatures are on track to fall into the mid 50s overnight. High pressure ridge extending from WI, through IA into MO/KS will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Thursday night as it slowly moves east across the state. A weather system will push toward the area during the end of the week as the ridge moves to the east.
A few locations are likely to still nose up into the low 80s by the end of max heating. The area of low pressure that is supposed to bring widespread higher- end precipitation chances to the CWA is located near the Four Corners region. At the surface, this system (and broader/larger longwave trof pattern of the western CONUS) is reflected in the lee- of-the-Rockies surface troffing taking place across the central and northern high plains. Seems there will be no lack of synoptic-scale support for rain (either from favorable jet-streak orientation aloft or from the upper low itself) over this CWA tonight and Thursday. By the end of the short term period, the upper low and its surface reflection are progged to be moving into Minnesota, with the forecast drying out from west to east Thursday night.
1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Currently - Weak Atlantic ridging extends westward across the Florida Straits and Cuba and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge displaced so far south due to a fairly amplified mid latitude trough over the eastern United States, reaching into Florida. A ridge across the Florida Straits and Cuba will nose a bit northward overnight.
Additionally, there is a surface cold front that bisects the area with northerly winds now at HSV. However, dewpoints will be tolerable in the low to mid 60s and despite the mostly sunny skies, highs will only climb into the low to mid 80s.
701 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 A generally dry and stable north-northeast flow persists across the area this taf period as high pressure remains anchored over the northern great lakes.
Cold front currently nearing Paducah Kentucky with sharply colder temps behind it. Temps tonight down in the upper 30's along the plateau and in the lower 40's elsewhere.
346 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A strengthening low pressure system moving northeast across the Great Lakes today will cause unseasonably cool temperatures with brisk northwest winds and a chance of showers across our area. High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday providing dry conditions. Weak WAA expected to dvlp Sunday as low level thermal trof moves to the NErn CONUS. This and more sunshine should result in slightly warmer highs in the generally in the l-m50s.
An upper level trough and onshore flow will result in increasing clouds, showers, and cooler conditions through Sunday.
120 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 VFR conditions currently at the terminals with a ridge of high pressure in place.
319 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A dry cold front will move through the Central California interior today with gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and desert this weekend. An associated dry cold front is forecast to push slowly southeast through Central California this morning into the afternoon hours. Additionally, significant cooling will be observed across the region, with daytime high temperatures around 10 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday afternoon.
144 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A secondary cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing a chance of rain showers. An upper level low will settle into the Great Lakes this weekend, providing cooler temperatures and a lingering chance of a shower on Saturday. A cold front currently stretching from southern Lake Michigan, through central Illinois and into northern Missouri, will push east into our area overnight.
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 showers will accompany a cold front that sweeps east through the region early this morning. this front will usher in cooler temperatures for the weekend.
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front will continue to make its way south into north Texas this morning. The airmass in the wake of the cold front will be rather cool by mid-May standards.
154 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front crossing the Midlands this afternoon will move off the coast this evening. High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight bringing cooler and drier air. A dry front will move through the region Saturday evening with additional cooler air behind the front.
A cold front will move south through all area terminals by 14/18Z. A cold front currently moving south through the Southern High Plains will become yet another focus for convection through the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs well below normal expected across much of the region. An uptick in showers and thunderstorms will occur across the higher terrain tonight and move east through the day Sunday.
By the end of the week another period of unsettled weather is likely (Today and Tonight) Rain chances continue to look decent for today, as a mid-level low passes by to our north, with the trough axis crossing northern California this afternoon. All of the latest numerical guidance continues to show showers increasing in coverage today, especially this afternoon when instability will build due to the diurnal cycle and the upper-level trough moving overhead. Small hail can't be completely ruled out as a possibility given freezing levels in the 4000 to 8000 feet range.
356 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Ridging centered over the Great Basin will be shifting east today with ridge axis positioned over western Colorado by this evening. Slight increase in mid-level moisture this afternoon will lead to a few more cu/tcu and possibly a shower or two over the higher peaks after 3 pm MDT.
Most areas now in the upper 20s with the typical cold areas in the low 20s. expect a slightly warmer airmass but weaker winds. Areas east of the valley look to have the best chance for temperatures below freezing once again. with other areas in the low to mid 30s.
The upper level trough axis is just coming ashore this morning and Western zones continue to see showers and a few lightning strikes. This trough is still expected to move east and the associated cold front will sweep through this afternoon/evening. Sunday looks to be a close repeat of Saturday as the upper level low moves directly overhead.
/ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016/ A strong cold front is making good southward progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a much drier and cooler airmass following it. The advertised late weekend widespread precipitation potential, associated with a northward lifting warm front, continues its recent slowing trend, with the onset of heaviest rain and the most widespread coverage looking likely to hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures Sunday will remain well below normal and likely even a few degrees cooler than on Saturday, owing to the daytime increase in rainfall.
A cold front currently in northwestern Texas will drift to the south and stall across Central Texas late this afternoon into tonight. These features along with daytime heating will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with the highest chances over Central Texas and across the Rio Grande Plains where the greatest moisture convergence and upward forcing are expected.
1117 PM MST FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure over the region is starting to weaken and signals a change to slighly cooler temperatures and more breezy conditions for the weekend.